HomeMy WebLinkAboutAPA2740The title page of the original document is not able to be found as of 12/10/09 .
There appear to be four volumes associated with this report, which are numbered
Documents 2739-2742 in the Susitna Hydroelectric Project Document Index.
This appears to be Appendix C, which is identified under Document 2740 as Volume 2B.
The Susitna Hydroelectric Project Document Index identifies Document 2740 as:
Response to FERC, April 12, 1983 Request Schedule A:
Non-Conforming Items, Volume 2B:
MAP Technical Documentation Report.
300 pages
The publication date of all four volumes associated with this report:
June 30, 1983
Information compiled by Celia Rozen
APPENDIX C
ISER MAP ALASKA ECONOMIC MODEL:
POPULATION MODULE
C.I General Model Description
C.2 Flow Diagram.
C.3 Output Variables
C.4 Cohort Designation
C.s Parameter Definitions
C.6 Coefficients ..
c.?Input Variables for Population Module
C.B Input Data Sets
C.9 Structural Description
C.IO Regression Coefficients
C.II Parameter Values
C.12 Model Validation
C-I
C-4
C-s
C-B
C-9
C-ll
C-12
C-13
C-14
C-17
C-IB
C-27
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J
J
"-~
-\
\
"I
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C.l General Model Description
The population module of the Alaska economic model provides
annual forecasts of total population and detailed population charac-
teristics for the State of Alaska.Population in each year is
estimated as an average annual value which is determined by the sum of
natural increase of the previous year's population and net immigration.
The former is based upon age-sex-race-specific fertility and mortality
rates.The latter is based upon a stochastically determined equation
relating net immigration to the change in emploYment opportunities in
Alaska,Alaskan unemployment,and real wage levels relative to the
U.S.average.This specification is based upon the theory that
migration flows clear regional labor markets,with people moving into
regions where employment opportunities are increasing faster than
local supplies can satisfy them and out of economically declining
regions.
The three main components of population--Native,military,and
civilian non-Native--each receive separate treatment because of dif-
ferent characteristics.The Native population can only migrate out of
Alaska and has different fertility and mortality rates than do
civilian non-Natives.The military population consists of armed
forces personnel and military dependents.Births,deaths,and net
migration are not calculated for this component of the population.
Its age-sex structure essentially remains constant in simulation,as
each year those leaving are replaced by individuals with identical
characteristics.
Total Population.Total population is the sum of the three
components of the population which are individually treated because of
different characteristics.These components are civilian/non-Native
population,Native population,and military population which is armed
forces personnel plus military dependents.Each of the components of
the population is divided into 30 age-sex cohorts.The population
under 1 year is the first cohort for each sex,and the 65-and-over
population is cohort 15.Cohort 2 is the population aged 1 through
4 years;all others span five years.
The military population is static in the sense that the age-sex
structure of both the armed forces personnel and the military depen-
dents does not change over time,nor does the ratio of military
dependents to armed forces personnel.The total military population
is calculated as a percentage of the 1980 military population and its
age-sex structure scaled accordingly.
Civilian/Non-Native Natural Increase.Each year,a percentage of
individuals within each cohort die,and another percentage move into
the next cohort as people age.The aging process applies to all
individuals within a cohort,and the result of this process is an
"intermediate cohort"to which migrants must be added to arrive at the
final cohort value for the new year.
C-l
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The population of the a-I-aged cohort is determined by the number
of births,which is the sum of cohort-specific fertility rates applied
to the female population surviving from the previous ·year.While
mortality rates change very slowly,fertility rates are affected by a
number of socioeconomic variables.Since precise relationships cannot
be determined for Alaskan fertility rates,these are held constant in
the model for the projection period.A percentage of infants do not
survive,and a specific sex di'l.ision of births is applied to total
births.
From these calculations,both infant deaths and total deaths can
be calculated as sums.Finally,natural increase is the excess of
births over deaths.
Civilian/Non-Native Migration.Net immigration is a function of
the year-to-year change in the level of total Alaskan civilian
employment,the percentage change in the lagged value of the Alaskan-
U.S.ratio of real weekly earnings,and the lagged ratio of'U.S.-to-
Alaska unemployment rates.Migrants,according to this formulation,
will be drawn to Alaska in response to a.tight.erling of tht=Alask,an
labor market indicated by low unemployment rates and rising real
wages.Higher relative unemployment rates and declining real wages
would cause net immigration to be negative.'
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Two distinct definitions of the total Native population are
calculated.The first is based upon Native self-enumeration data from
the 1980 Census.This forms the basis for the age-sex distribution of
the Native population.A second larger number is calculated from the
number of enrollees for the twelve Native corporations residing in.the
state.This latter concept of Native population is assumed to grow at
the same rate as the census-based Native population.
C-3
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C.2 MAP Economic Population Module
l
-:~
I
;'J
·_-,·,-,-1------
:J
1:}
I
I
I
---_.._---_.
Labor
Force
Total
Employment
Economic
Model
Real Wage
Relative to U.S.
L _
------1
1
1
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
Age-Sex
Distribution,r---
1
I
I
I
1
I
1
I
1
I
1
I
C-4
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C.3 Output Variables of the Population Module
Total Population
POP Total Alaska population
CNNTOT Total Alaska civilian non-Native population
NAT TOT Total Alaska Native population (civilian)
POPij Total Alaska population in cohort ij
CNNPij Alaska civilian non-Native population in cohort ij
NATPij Alaska Native population in cohort ij
POPC Alaska Population not in military service
BTOT Total Alaska civilian births
DTOT Total Alaska civilian deaths
POPNI9 Total Alaska civilian natural increase
Military Population
POPM
MILPCT
Cij
BTHTOT
DTHINF
DTHTOT
NAT INC
NCij
NBTHTOT
NDTHINF
NDTHTOT
NNATINC
POPNE
POPMIG
MIGOUT
MIGIN
Alaska active duty military personnel
Alaska military population as a fraction of 1980 level
Civilian Non-Native Natural Increase
Alaska Civilian non-Native population in cohort ij
before migration
Total Alaska civilian non-Native births to civilian population
Alaska infant civilian non-Native deaths
Total Alaska civilian non-Native deaths
Alaska civilian non-Native natural increase
(Civilian)Native Natural Increase
Alaska Native population in cohort ij before migration
Total Alaska Native births
Alaska Native infant deaths
Total Alaska Native deaths
Alaska Native natural increase
Alaska Native enrollment populqtion
Civilian Migration and Total Civilian Population
Total net civilian migration to Alaska
Exogenous civilian migration to Alaska
Endogenous civilian migration to Alaska
C-5
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Labor Force and Unemployment
HHSIZEN Average Alaska Native household size
HHSIZEC Average Alaska civilian non-Native household size
-HHSIZE----Ave iageAIasK~i-fiOu-sehOIa-s:rz-e;·alr-hoiiseli-olcrs---_._.--
PLFDOMC
PLFDOMN
PLFDOJ:1J:1
PLFD9
LF
UNEMP
WR.AK.US
U.AK.US
HH
HHC
HHN
HH!:1
CHHij
NlllIij
HHij
POPCGQ
POPNGQ
POPGQ
POPSKL
POPKID
POPGER
POPADS
POP;AD
POP .KID
POP .GER
POP .MIL
Alaska potential civilian non-Native labor force
(population age 15 to 64)
Alaska potential civilian Native labor force
Alaska potential military labor force (military dependents
age 15 to 64,active-duty military are excluded)
Total Alaska potential civilian labor force
Total Alaska civilian labor force
Alaska unemployed
Relative real wage rate,Alaska to U.S.
Relative unemployment rate,Alaska to U.S.
Households
Total Alaska households
Total Alaska civilian non-Native households
Total Alaska civilian Native households
Total Alaska military households
Alaska households headed by civilian non-Native
persons in cohort ij
Alaska households headed by civilian Native persons
in cohort ij
Total Alaska households headed by persons in cohort ij
Non-Household Population and Average Household Size
Alaska civilian.non-Native population in group quarters
Alaska Native population in group quarters
Total Alaska population in group quarters
Special Population Characteristics
Total Alaska population age 5-19
Total Alaska population under 15
Total Alaska population 65 and over
Total Alaska population age 15-64
Ratio of Ala.skapopul,if:i.oriIS=64Io t.ot.aI popuiat.l0n
Ratio of Alaska population under 15 to total population
Ratio of Alaska population 65 and over to total population
Ratio of Alaska military and military dependents to
total population
1
1
)
j
l
1
l
i
f
POP.NAT
POP.CIV
NCBR
NCDR
CBR
CDR
BCRUDE
DCRUDE
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Ratio of Alaska Native population to total population
Ratio of Alaska civilian non-Native population to
total population
Alaska crude Native birth rate (per thousand)
Alaska crude Native death rate
Alaska crude civilian non-Native birth rate
Alaska crude civilian non-Native death rate
Alaska crude civilian birth rate
Alaska crude civilian death rate
C-7
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C.4 Cohort Designation
Sex (i)
F Female
M Male
Age (j)
1 Under 1 year
2 1 - 4 years
3 5 - 9 years
4 10 -14 years
5 15 -19 years
6 20 -24 years
7 25 -29 years
8 30 -34 years
9 35 -39 years
10 40 -44 years
11 45 -49 years
12 50 -54 years
13 55 -59 years
14 60 -64 years
15 65 years and older
1
)
1
-l
)
,1
.J
l
l
l
)
~~
1
I
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C.S Parameter Definitions
Military Population
AFTOT
MDTOT
MILij
Gj
Sij
FERTj
SEXDIV
SURINFi
BAnD
NSij
NFERTij
NSEXDIV
NSURINFi
NMij
OEMij
Mij
HHRij
NHHRij
RCij
NRCij
CPGQij
Total armed forces personnel in 1980
Total military dependents in 1980
Armed forces personnel and military dependents
in cohort ij in 1980
Civilian Non-Native Natural Increase
Shift factor for aging of cohorts
Non-Native survival rate for cohort ~J
Non-Native fertility rate for female cohort j
Non-Native sex division at birth
Non-Native infant survival rates
Birth adjustment factor to account for birth of
Native children to non-Native women
(Civilian)Native Natural Increase
Native survival rate for cohort ij
Native fertility in female cohort j
Native sex division at birth
Native infant survival rates
Civilian Migration
Migration rate (positive for in,negative for out)
for Native population in cohort ij
Exogenous civilian non-Native migration rate (positive
for in,negative for o~t)for population in cohort ij
Fraction of total endogenous civilian (non-Native)
migration assigned to cohort ij
Household Formation
Household formation rate for civilian non-Native
population in cohort ij
Household formation rate for civilian Native
population in cohort ij
Rate of change in HHRij
Rate of change in NHHRij
Fraction of civilian non-Native population in
cohort ij in group quarters .
C-9
NPGQij
POPMGQ
MHHAGE
LFPART
PLFRATE
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Fraction of civilian Native population in cohort ij
in group quarters
Military population in group quarters in 1980
Average age of head of military household
Labor Force
Labor force participation rate as a fraction of
potential labor force
Fraction of migrant population in potential labor force
-\.
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C.6 Coefficients
Regression coefficients for net migration equation:
CMIGa Net migration to Alaska
C-ll
a =1,2,3,4
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C.7 Input Variables for Population Module
The following variables require a fore~ast for each year:
All other population variables may be updated as new population
estimates become available.
EMGM
EM96
R.WR97
WEUS
PDUSCPI
U.US
YR
Alaska military employment (thousands)
Total Alaska employment (thousands)
Average Alaska real wage rate
U.S.weekly earnings
U.S.consumer price index
U.S.unemployment rate
Year
l
l
)
1
}
C-12
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May 1983
C.8 Input Data Sets
Input data required to run the population module are
contained in the following data sets:
AKHIST
POPST2
Historical time series data
Estimated 1980 Alaska population
by age,sex,and race.*
*Alaska population by age,sex,and race cohorts estimated from
the 1980 U.S.Census are shown in Table C-6.These figures represent
Alaska population as of April 1,1980,the date of the census.
Population estimates for the MAP population module,however,represent
average annual values.The census-derived figures for population
cohorts were adjusted to average annual figures using the following
procedure:
(1)The population module was simulated for one full year
starting from the April 1,1980,population,but with
average annual 1980 employment and wage data.
(2)The average annual 1980 population estimates,contained
in the Data Set POPST2,were computed using the formula:
POPST2_POPijk =0.25 *[POPijk (1981)-POPijk (1980)J
where POPST2 POPijk is the average 1980 population of
sex i in age-cohort j and race kj POPijk(l98l)is the
simulated 1981 population cohort,and POPijk(l980)is
the census April 1,1980,cohort.
C-13
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II
C.9 StructuralDescription
Refer to the variable list and symbol dictionary for names and
symbols.
Total Population
POP =CNNTOT +N~TTOT +MILPCT *(AFTOT +MDTOT)
POPij ==CNNPij +NATPij +MILPCT *(AFPij +MDPij)
i =M,F
j =1 to 15
POPM ==EMGM
Civilian/Non-Native Natural Increase
?'-]
l
I
CNNPi,j-l (-1)
(CFj *FERTj))-BADD
i =M,F
j =2 to 15
1-1~-~-------~-._~--~----..~_.-----.~---~-~-_._-~~..-
BTHTOT ==(L
j=4
Cij ==Gj *Sij *CNNPij (-1)+(I-Gj-l)*Si,j-l *
CMl --SEXDIV 7'(BTHTOT 7'(SURINFM \J
CFl --(l-SEXDIV)*BTHTOT *SURINFF
---------DTHINF ==BTHTOT---CMT--;;--CFr------
II
15
DTHTOT ==DTHINF +L L
i=M,F j=l
(Cij(-l)*(l-Sij))
NATINC ==BTHTOT -DTHTOT
1
\I
C-14
I I
I I
11
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(Civilian)Native Natural Increase
NCij ==Gj *NSij *NATPi,j-l +(I-Gj-l)*NSi,j-l *NATPi,j-l (-1)
i =M,F
j = 1 to 15
11
NBTHTOT ==(I (NCFj *NFERTj))+BADD
j=4
NCPMl ==NSEXDIV *NBTHTOT *NSURINFM
NCPFI ==(I-NSEXDIV)*NBTHTOT *NSURINFF
NDTHINF ==NBTHTOT -NCMl -NCFl
NDTHTOT ==NDTHINF +I
i=M,F
15
I (NCij(-I)*(I-NSij))
j=1
NNATINC ==NBTHTOT -NDTHTOT
Civilian Migration and Total Civilian Population
NATPij =NCij *(1 +NMij)i=M,F j=1 to 15
POPMIG =CMIGI +CMIG2 *1/U.AK.US(-I)+CMIG3 *WR.AK.US(-I)
+CMIG4 *DELEMP
MIGOUT =I
i=M,F
15
Ii ((OEMij ;'(Cij)+(NMij ;'(NCij))
j=1
IIlJ
u
MIGIN =POPMIG -MIGOUT
15
NATTOT =I I NATPij
i=M,F j=1
CNNPij =MIGIN *Mij +Cij *(1 +OEMij)(Mij ~0)i=M,F j=1 to 15
C-15
CNNTOT =I
i=M,F
15
I CNNPij
j=1
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Labor Force and Unemployment
PLFD9 ==I
i=M,F
14
I POPij
j=5
LF --LFPART *PLFD9
UNEMP ==LF -EM96
U.AK.US ==UNEMP/LF/U.US
WR.AK.US ==LOG(R.WR97)-LOG (WEUS*100/PDUSCPI)-
(LOG(R.WR97(-I))-LOG(WEUS(-I)*100/PDUSCPI(-I)))
DELEMP ==EM96 -EM96(-I)
)
I
)
I
I
I
.)
I
1
1
I
1
I
I)
11
II
11
IJ
IJ
fJ
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MAP Documentation
May 1983
C.10 Regression Coefficients
Net Migration to Alaska
POPMIG =CMIG1 +CMIG2 *1/U.AK.US(-1)+CMIG3 *WR.AK.US(-l)
+CMI G4 ?'(DELEMP
Coefficient Value Standard Error t Statistic
CMIG1 -16.0216 5.5354 -2.8944
CMIG2 14.1206 5.4030 2.6135
CMIG3 49.2216 13.7389 3.5827
CMIG4 0.9567 0.0969 9.8699
Range:1971 to 1980 F(3,6)=53.57
R2 =0.964 standard error of regression =2.816
Estimation method:generalized least squares (correction
for autocorrelation),p =0.75
Notes:Historical series for POPMIG taken from the series
AKHIST POPMIGNW.Historical series for U.AK.US
taken from ANANHIST U.AK.USU.Other series archived
in ANANHIST.-
C-17
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C.11 Parameter Values
Military Population (Table C-6)
))
)
AFTOT From Alaska Air Command and J.Kruse,
Design and Implementation of Alaska
1980 Reapportionment Data Collection
Effort,ISER,August 1980.
I
\
MDTOT,MILij Military age-sex-race distribution
outside Anchorage assumed equal to
Anchorage on-base distribution.
Anchorage figures from 1980 U.S.
Census,Anchorage Census Tracts 3
and 4.
Civilian Natural Increase
Household Formation
tl;
J)
j
])
I
j,
1-
.j)
j,
)1
r
See Table C-3.
Parameters assumed =O.Insufficient
information available on migration of
Native population
Estimated using data from Alaska Air
Command and 1980 U.S.Census
See Appendix D
OEMij
NMij
Military
Households
Civilian
Households
Gj l/Tj where Tj is the number of
years spanned by age cohort j;
except G15 (65 and over)=0
All Others See Tables C-4 (birth rates)and C-5
(survival rates).
_____________________1:1:i.j __K~timg.t_eJ:L_fr.Qm_columns__Land 2_,_Tabl eG-:l,_____
and columns 1 and 2
I j
lJ
[J
I .tJ
Labor Force
LFPART
PLFRATE
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May 1983
Ratio of sum of total civilian employment
and unemployment to civilian potential
labor force
Fraction of population 15-64 from
Table C-6
C-19
Non-Native
Alaska Natives Intrastate Total
F M F M F M
3 5 11 8 33 28
4 6 5 9 27 34
3 1 7 5 18 13
0 3 8 6 17 22
1 3 11 10 45 40
4 2 15 16 45 52
3 3 15 17 40 47
2 2 5 6 17 22
1 1 4 3 14 16
1 0 4 5 10 11
0 0 2 3 3 4
0 0 2 2 4 5
o
297
2
276
o
92
1
90
o
26
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May 1983
o
22
TABLE C-l:CIVILIAN MIGRATION TO ANCHORAGE,
ALASKA PUBLIC SURVEY SAMPLE
(N ~1,867 Individuals)
Figures include all members of the hOllsehold of survey respondents
resident in community (in Alaska for interstate migrants)thirty-
six months or less.
Interstate
Migrants
Age Group F M
Under 5 19 15
5-9 18 19
10-14 8 7
15-19 9 13
20-24 33 27
25-29 26 34
30-34 22 27
35-39 10 14
40-44 9 12
45-49 5 6
50-54 1 1
55-59 2 3
60-64 1 1
65 and over 1 0
Total 164 179
NOTE:
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j
TABLE C-2.ESTIMATED CIVILIAN MIGRATION RATES TO ANCHORAGE
(percent of migrants in each category)
All Non-Native
Interstate Migrants Alaska Natives Migrants
Age Group F M F M F M
Under 5 5.0 5.0 8.3 8.3 5.0 5.0
5-9 5.4 5.4 10.4 10.4 4.9 4.9
I 10-14 2.2 2.2 4.2 4.2 2.6 2.6II
15-19 2.6 3.8 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.6
('
1\20-24 9.6 7.9 4.2 4.2 8.3 7.0
I
25-29 7.6 9.9 6.3 6.3 7.8 9.4
30-34 6.4 7.9 6.3 6.3 7.0 8.4
35-39 2.9 4.1 4.2 4.2 2.9 3.8
I :1
40-44 2.6 3.5 2.0 2.0 2.5 2.9
45-49 1.5 1.7 1.0 1.0 1.7 2.1
50-54 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.8
55-59 0.6 0.8
0.8 1.0
60-64 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4
65 and over 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2
Total 47.1 52.9 50.0 50.0 47.9 52.1
iJ SOURCE:Data from Alaska Public Survey.
I IIJ
C-21
TABLE C-3.ESTIMATED EXOGENOUS OUT-MIGRATION RATES
J,
Jl
]
1
1
F M
10.77 10.17
10.76 10.37
5.17 4.79
5.10 4.98
4.52 5.33
8.79 9.98
7.42 9.77
6.56 9.35
7.26 6.38
4.49 3.26
_.~.-'7-.09 ----.-5~6}--
4.41 5.07
9.60 8.55
1.41 1.78
Percent of Age-Sex Cohort
1.3
0.3
1.3
0.3
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Percent of Migrants
Age Group F M
Under 5 5.8 5.8
5-9 5.8 5.8
10-14 2.9 2.9
15-19 3.3 3.3
20-24 3.2 3.6
25-29 7.0 8.2
30-34 5.8 8.1
35-39 4.0 5.2
65 and over
60-64
SOURCE:Richard Ender,Anchorage Urban Observatory and U.S.Census,1980.
40-44 3.2 3.5
45-49 1.8 1.4
·_~--~·_-~--"§O-S4-·····_·_-~··_···..-----1-.9---~h9
55-59 1.1 1.3
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TABLE C-4.1980 BIRTHS:NUMBER OF BIRTHS AND BIRTH RATES
PER THOUSAND WOMEN IN FIVE-YEAR AGE COHORTS,
ALASKA RESIDENTS
Native Non-Native
Age of Mother No.of Births Rate No.of Births Rate
10-14 years 1 0.3 5 0.4
15-19 years 438 138.5 686 48.4
20-24 years 821 297.9 a 2,632 145.1 a
25-29 years 528 173.3 2,548 127.2a
30-34 years 260 101.1 1,212 71.7
35-39 years 84 46.5 283 22.7
40-44 years 18 12.7 38 4.3
Not Stated 1 2
Total 2,151 7,406
(9,557 total births in Alaska in 1980)
aRate includes one case where age was not stated.
SOURCE:Number of births from Alaska Department of Health and Social
Services,Office of Information Systems;and Alaska Native
Medical Center,~nchorage.
C-23
50-54 12 12.90 12 10.80 22 3.54 59 7.76
_._.~_.~._~~____~55~59 .__~10~__._13.00 ·-----19---21.-20---~-----40------7-.8 9-.-76--1-2;-92--
-------60-...-6-4----8----10-:-00----19--3T:SO-3-q--m-:-30---'~77---2-0--::-62
65 +45 31.10 91 63.20 148 34.10 268 62.05
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Rate
6.26
Male
21 5.81
11 0.87
2 0.14
6 0.43
22 1.36
50 2.38
56 2.52
28 1.88
43 4.00
43 4.99
24
836
Number
NON-NATIVE
Female
11 3.15
8 0.67
1 0.07
l-0.08
6 0.42
9 0.50
13 0.65
13 O.
13 1.04
15 1.71
20 2.74
16 4.48
370
Number Rate
8.60
4.34
10.10
9.82
5.87
Male
14 12.69
29
13
22
17
8
325
Number Rate
NATIVE
Female
8 7.63
10 12.36 13 15.53
.3 1.09 4 1.36
2 0.55 3 0.78
1 0.28 5 1.32
10 3.16 24 6.70
8 2.90 32 10.00
Number Rate
Totals 158
Age
<28 Days
TABLE C-5.1980 DEATHS:NUMBER OF DEATHS AND DEATH RATES
PER THOUSAND,ALASKA RESIDENTS
1-4 yrs.
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
SOURCE:Number of deaths from Alaska Department of Health and
Social Services,Office of Information Systems.
28 days -
1 year
25-29 11 3.61
30-34 10 3.89
---~_..__..~~-------_.._-_._-~_.--~-------~----_._~--"----_..__._-_.._-~..__._---_..__..-
35-39 '8.4.42
40-44 9 6.34
45-49 3 2.67
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and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
C.12 Model Validation
The population module of the economic model uses as the basis of
its forecasts the demographic characteristics of the population
enumerated by the 1980 u.S.Census.No detailed enumeration of the
state population has been undertaken since the 1980 Census.The most
recent past detailed population count that could be used to test the
ability of the full module to predict demographic shifts up to 1980 is
the 1970 u.S.Census.Conceptually,one could use the population
module to "predict"the 1980 population given the 1970 population
characteristics and estimated migration between 1970 and 1980.
Such a test is impractical,however,since Alaskan cohort-
specific birth,death,and household formation rates changed signifi-
cantly between the 1970 and 1980 Census benchmarks.Consequently,one
would not expect a module to forecast population changes accurately
during this period using the 1980 parameters.
Although it is not practical to test predictions of the full
population module against historical events,it is possible to examine
closely one important component of the module--net migration.The
equation forecasting net civil~~n migration was estimated using recent
historical data.To the extent that future economic conditions
resemble those that have occurred in the past decade,the ability of
the module equation to estimate historical migration flows provides a
reliable indicator of the type and magnitude of likely future fore-
casting errors.Table C-7 displays a comparison of actual estimated
-~-~-~~~--~-~------net-G-i-v-i-1-i-an-mi-g-J:'a-t-ion --t.o---t.he---mi-g-J:'atiou--equa-t-iou-pJ:'ed-iet-ious--in---t.he ---~-~~---
years for which it is possible to compute a forecast from available
data.
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MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE C-7.COMPARISON OF ACTUAL AND PREDICTED
NET MIGRATION TO ALASKA
Implied Net
Civilian Regression
Year Migration1 Prediction2 Difference
1980 -7,900 -4',566 -3,334
1979 -10,490 -12,694 2,204
1978 -14,270 -12,963 -1,307
1977 -4,460 -3,008 -1,452
1976 22,530 23,324 794
1975 33,760 33,140 620
1974 10,380 14,443 -4,063
1973 4,290 3,660 630
1972 6,050 3,539 2,511
i 1971 4,000 2,116 1,884I
\
! )
1Net migration in year t is defined as the difference between the
(mid-year)population estimate for year t and for year t-1,less the
excess of births over deaths (computed as a two-year moving average),
adjusted to exclude estimated military population changes.
2Using the equation presented in Section C-10,including the
estimate of serial correlation in the error term.
C-27
i
I )
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
APPENDIX D
ISER MAP ALASKA ECONOMIC MODEL:
HOUSEHOLD FORMATION MODULE
D.l Model Description
D.2 Parameter Assumptions
D.3 Proj ecting Alaskan Households in the Future
D-l
D-4
D-8
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May 1983
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and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
D.1 Model Description
A household is a living unit of one of two types:a family or an
individual or group of individuals,not related,who are living as a
unit.
The population projections determine the number of households in
the state.The number of households is a function of both the level
of population and its age-sex distribution.The age-sex distribution
of the population is important because the rate at which people form
households differs across age-sex cohorts.This household formation
module accounts for both of these influences of population on house
hold formation.
The household formation module is an accounting model which
depends on a set of assumptions about the age-sex cohort-specific
rates of household formation,known as headship rates,and changes in
those rates.The module is based on the assumption that the social,
economic,and life-cycle factors which determine the formation of
households can be described by a set of headship rates.Headship
rates describe the probability that a person in a particular cohort is
a household head.
The module requires input from the population module in the form
of the projected size and age-sex distribution of the population.The
total number of households in the state (HH)is equal to the number of
households summed across age and sex cohorts.
(1)HH =.n:HH ... .1J1J
The total number of households in sex cohort i and age cohort j
(HH ..)describes the number of households with household head or
primary individual in the ith sex and jth age cohort.This total is,
in·turn,composed of three components:the number of civilian/
non-Native households in cohort ij (CHH ..),the number of Native
households in cohort ij (NHH ..),and the nJ~ber of military households
in cohort ij (MHH ..).1J
1J
(2)HH ..=CHH ..+NHH ..+MHH ..1J 1J 1J 1J
The number of civilian and Native households in each cohort is a
function of the population and headship rate for the cohort.The
number of households in any cohort equals the cohort-specific headship
rate (HHR ..for civilian/non-Natives and NHHR ..for Natives)multi
plied by tt.e cohort population (CNNP..for ci~:ilian/non-Natives and
NATP ..for Natives)net of the proportlon of the population in group
quartJrs (CPGQ..for civilian/non-Natives and NPGQ..for Natives).1J 1J
D-1
(9)POPGQ ==NPGQ +CPGQ +MILPCT *MPGQ
(6)NHHR NHHR (80)+NRC *log (T-80)
ij =ij ij log NTP
The model also calculates Native,civilian/non-Native,and total
population in group quarters,as well as average household size for
Natives,civilian/non-Natives,military,and total population.
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Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
NPGQ)/II NlIH ... .1J1J
HHSIZEN ==(NATTOT
NPGQ ==II (NPGQ..~'~NATP ..). .1J 1J1J
HHSIZE ==(POP -POPGQ)/HH
HHSIZEC ==(CNNTOT -CPGQ)/II CHH ..
ij 1J
HHSIZEM ==(MILPCT *[AFTOT +MDTOT -MPGQ])/II MHH ..
ij 1J
CHH..=CNNP..~'~(1 -CPGQ..)~t~HHR..1J 1J 1J 1J
NlIH..=NATP..-:~(1 -NPGQ ..)-:~N1IHR ..1J 1J 1J 1J
(7)
(12)
(13)
(11)
(3)
The cohort distribution of military households (MHH ..)is assumed
to remain constant throughout the proj ection period.J.Phe number of
military households (MHH ..)equals the number in 1980..1J
The headship rates have changed historically and are expected to
continue to vary.The headship rates are assumed to approach a
specified target over a specified time period.Thus,the headship
rate in any year equals:
(5)HHR ..=trim ..(80)+RC ..~'~log(T-80)1J 1J 1J log TP
(10)
where RC ..(NRC ..)is the specified target change for non-Natives
(Natives)lJ an d TpJ (NTP)is the time period in which the change is
assumed to take place.
(4)
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MAP Documentation
May 1983
D.2 Model Parameter Assumptions
The model was calibrated using the 1980 Census as a benchmark.
The civilian/non-Native and Native headship rates were calculated from
the statewide census data.These parameter values are shown in
Table D-1.
The civilian/non-Native and Native population proportions in
group quarters,also derived from the census,are assumed to remain a
constant proportion of each cohort over the projection period.These
are shown in Table D-2.
Military households are taken directly from the 1980 Census and
are shown in Table D-3.The age-sex distribution of military house
holds is assumed to remain constant over time and to increase or
decrease proportionately as total military population changes.The
proportion in group quarters also remains the same constant proportion
of total military as it was in 1980.
The parameters determining the rates of change of headship rates
are.niscussed in the next section.
D-3
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
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May 1983
TABLE D-l.1980 ALASKA CIVILIAN HEADSHIP RATES
Civilian/Non-Native Native
Age Male Female Male Female
15-19 .063 .036 .025 .026
20-24 .553 .201 .257 .127
25-29 .742 .234 .539 .188
30-34 .836 .237 .691 .219
35-39 .905 .215 .807 .227
40-44 .914 .216 .807 .227
45-49 .943 .224 .864 .267
50-54 .931 .223 .864 .267
55-59 .923 .262 .893 .297
60-64 .922 .320 .925 .330
~~~.._~..~._--"....."----_..__...__._..,._~-----~~._-----.
65+---.884'.466'"
NOTES:Assumes 1970 distribution for age 15-54 in group quarters
.after military in group quarters of 8,078 males and
-------.---.-.----..···+,365--female s-was-subt·rae-ted--from···total-·age--15-54-in·-·-----.----...-.
.~.-..-~--.-....-~-.-.....-.~-----g-roup-quar.ter.s-.-O'ther-group-quar.ter.s ..b::y-cohor.Lis------.-
from U.S.Census.
Assumes no Natives in military.
SOURCE:U.S.Department of Commerce,Bureau of Census,1980,
Census of Population,Census Tape STF2,Table 11.
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Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE D-2.ALASKA CIVILIAN POPULATION IN GROUP QUARTERS,1980
Non-Native Native
Male Female Male Female
Age Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent
<1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1-4 71 .0071 41 .0045 12 .0041 7 .0026
5-9 53 .0046 35 .0032 20 .0058 20 .0059
10-14 53 .0044 35 .0031 20 .0053 20 .0055
15-19 569 .0435 48 .0040 160 .0376 98 .0240
20-24 986 .0729 401 .0283 239 .0692 98 .0284
25-29 439 .0238 69 .0040 115 .0405 33 .0118
30-34 291 .0166 33 .0022 69 .0314 20 .0092
35-39 374 .0278 13 .0011 40 .0224 10 .0057
40-44 379 .0369 29 .0036 41 .0288 4 .0029
45-49 331 .0392 64 .0092 35 .0258 12 .0092
50-54 198 .0265 30 .0051 20 .0181 12 .0112
55-59 154 .0266 46 .0093 22 .0233 11 .0128
60-64 98 .0268 10 .0032 22 .0350 7 .0103
65+281 .0648 320 .0751 61 .0417 72 .0510
4,277 1,174 876 424
SOURCE:U.S.Census Tape STF2B
D-5
Age Male Female
15-19 .6 .1
20-24 18.3 .6
25-29 29.1 .9
30-34 23.7 .3
35-39 15.8 .2
40-44 6.7 .1
45-49 1.7 .1
50-54 1.0 .1
55-59 .3
60-54 .1
.1
1980 Census,Census Tapes.
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
SOURCE:
TABLE D-3.ALASKA MILITARY HOUSEHOLDS
(percent of total)
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Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
D.3 Projecting Alaskan Households in the Future
National Trends
The relationship between population and the number of households
has not remained constant over time.Table D-4 shows historical
trends in the size and composition of households in the United States
since 1940.Average household size has declined steadily since World
War II,primarily as a result of the increase in the proportion of
"primary individual"households.The average size of families
actually increased after the war until the mid-1960s because of the
"baby boom,"but this was more than compensated for by the fact that
the average household size of "primary individual"households has
fallen dramatically from 1.94 to 1.19 in 1980.
Somewhat more detail on recent historical trends is provided by
Table D-5 which focuses on the composition of households in the last
ten years.Total households increased by 27 percent over that period
in contrast to an increase in population of 7.6 percent.Family
households increased by 15.7 percent while nonfamily households grew
78 percent.
Part of the decline in average household size for families can be
attributed to the relative growth of one-parent households and
families with no children less than 18 years of age.All categories
of nonfamily households grew rapidly,but those with more than one
member grew most rapidly at 157 percent.This category includes both
couples living together and groups of unrelated individuals sharing
households.
The dominant factors which underlie these trends are the in
creased life expectancy of people,which has increased the proportion
of older-couple family households,and more importantly the aging of
the post-war baby boom population which is now entering the primary
headship years both in and out of families.
These trends have been projected forward nationally by the
Department of Commerce (Table D-6)to predict the number of households
in the future under different sets of assumptions of population (I,
II,III)and headship rates (A,B,C,D).
These proj ections all assume a continued reduction of average
household size during the next fifteen years.A control projection,
K,is presented which assumes no change in headship rates to isolate
the effect of population growth alone on the number of households.'
D-7
I
IHISTORICAL ANALYSIS OF HOUSEHOLDS
IIN THE UNITED STATES
i (thousands)
Number
,
I
Pr~mary Families
i
Primary Individuals
Percent of
Households
Average
Family SizeNumber
Percent of
Households
IAverage
F~mily Size
. i
I
ITABLE D-4.
!
I,
!
I I
I !Aver~g~
HouseholdI .Size
I
Households
1940
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1979
1980
43,5~4
47,87 4
52,799
5[7,436
63,401
71,120
77,330
80,7~6
I3.67
I3.37
I,
3.33
I3.33
I3.29
I3.1t
2.9~
2.712.76
38,838
41,732
44,905
47,838
51,456
55,563
57,498
59,550
3.76
3.54 89.2 4,716 1.94
3.59 87.2 6,142 1.61
3.67 85.0 7,895 1.40
3.70 83.3 9,598 1.28
3.58 81.2 11,945 1.25
3.42 78.1 15,557 1.23
3.34 74.4 19,831 1.19
3.31 73.7 21,226 1.19
10.8
12.8
15.0
16.7
18.8
21.9
25.6
26.3
i !
SOURCES:U.S.iDepartment of
l
'qommerce,Bureau qf the Census,Statistical Abstract,1979.
,II,IU.S.iDepartment of qommerce,Bureau of the Census,Current Population Reports,
Population Estimates and Projectidns,Series P-25,No.805,May 1979.
,I i I,,IU.S.:Department 0+qommerce,Bureau qf the Census,Current Population Reports,
Household and family Characterist~cs:March 1979,Series P-20,No.352,July 1980.
.I "i
U.S.,Department of qommerce,Bureau qf the Census,Current Population Reports,
Households,Fa~i]ies,Marital Status and Living Arrangements,Series P-20,No.376,
October 1982.I I
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TABLE D-5.U.S.HOUSEHOLD COMPOSITION
IN THE MOST RECENT DECADE
1980 1970
Percent Growth
Millions Percent Millions Percent 1970 to 1980
Total 80.776 63.401 27.4
Family Households 59.550 73.7 51.456 81.2 15.7
Married Couples 49.112 60.8 44.728 70.5 9.8
Other Family Households 10.438 12.9 6.728 10.6 55.1
t:l
I Nonfamily Households 21.226 26.3 11.945 18.8 77.7~
Persons Living Alone 18.419 22.8 10.851 17 .1 69.7
Other Nonfamily Households 2.807 3.5 1.094 1.7 156.6
SOURCES:U.S.Department of Commerce,Bureau of the Census,Current Population Reports,
Household and Family Characteristics:March 1979,Series P-20,No.352,July 1980.
U.S.Department of Commerce,Bureau of the Census,Current Population Reports,
Households,Families,Marital Status,and Living Arrangements,Series P-20,No.376.
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Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
1979 (BASE)77 ,330 2.78 57,498 74.4 19,831 25.6
A I 107,528 2.46 72,709 67.6 34,819 32.4
II 2.31
III 2.21
B I 103,856 2.55 72,234 69.4 31,622 30.6
II 2.39
III 2.28
C I 104,194 2.54 70,715 67.8 33,479 32.2
II 2.38
III 2.28
~._-_.----~_._.•.._.•._...•._~._--_.--~-_.._-_._~-_._.__.-------'--'-----_.._----------.
D I 97,180 2.72 71,590 73.5 25,590 26.5
II 2.55
III 2.44
K 94,192 71 ,424 75.8 22,768
.~----------------~~--_._-~_..•_--_._-_.._.--------""
aFor definition of terms,see text.
SOURCE:U.S.Department of Commerce,Bureau of the Census,Current
Population Reports,Projection of the Number of Households
and Families,1979 toi995,SeriesP-25,No.805,May 1979.
1
J
Percent
Nonfamily
Households
Family
Households Percent
Average
Household
Size
TABLE D-6.PROJECTIONS OF HOUSEHOLDS AND
HOUSEHOLD COMPOSITION IN 1995
aDept.of
Commerce
Projection
Series Households
\"
.I
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
For high rates of population growth (primarily due to natural
increase),the average household size in 1995 would vary between 2.46
and 2.72.For low rates of population increase (fewer births and more
deaths),average household size is projected to decline to between
2.21 and 2.44.Conversion of these trends in household size into
annual rates of change yields a range of from -01.5 percent annually
for the high population growth case to -.1 percent for the low popula-
tion growth case.
Alaskan Trends
Turning to Alaska,the data is not so complete,but some trends
can be identified.Table D-7 shows the growth in the number of house-
holds since 1950 and their composition.Several similarities and
contrasts with the national trends are in evidence.Briefly,they are
as follows:
Similarities
o Average household size has fallen since 1970.
o Average family size has fallen.
o The importance of female family heads has increased dramatically.
o The proportion of family households has declined at about the
rate of the United States.
Contrasts
o The average household
declined.
o In 1950 the average
average,but since 1960
substantial amount.
size for nonfamily households has not
household size was below the national
it has exceeded the national average by a
Average household size estimates from surveys conducted in
Anchorage and Fairbanks in the mid-1970s confirm the declining trend
in average household size.Estimates of 3.27 to 3.32 for Anchorage
for 1975 and 3.18 for 1977 have been published by the Anchorage Urban
Observatory.An estimate of 2.9 for 1976 for Fairbanks has been
published by the Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER).
Further comparison of Alaska with other states reveals that in
1980,the average household size in Alaska of 2.93 was fourth highest
in the nation,after Hawaii (3.15),Utah (3.20),and Mississippi
(2.97).Alaska experienced the greatest change between 1970 and 1980.
Household size fell 16.8 percent,compared to the U.S.average which
fell 11.6 percent.!
IU.S.Department of Commerce,Bureau of the Census,Statistical
Abstract of the United States 1981,December 1981.
D-ll
TABLE D17 ALASKA HISTORIC~L HOUSEHOLD STATISTICS
All Households a
I Pr1mary Fam11y ~ouseholdSa Pr1mary Ind1v1dual Households a
Average I i Average Average,iPersonsHHSlze*Househol~s Husbandl Male Female All HH Slze*Households Male Female All HH Slze*
Households 1n HH (2)1 (1)No·1 (f)Wlfe Head I (9)1 (5)%Head Head (15)/(12)~ead Persons No.Persons
l'950 b 31,047 100,779 3.25 Nl.21,788 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
I
1.960 b 57,250 199.982 3.49 46.261 I (8~.8)42,750 NA NA 184,385 3.99 10.989 (19.2)NA NA 15.597 1.42
!
1960c 57.250 200,418 3.50 46.613 (811.4)43.172 1,235 2P06 185.655 3.98 10,637 (18.6)7.804 2.833 14.763 1.39
I
11970d !
79.054 278.039 3.52 66,034 (8 13.5)61,697 4 067 258.469 3.91 13,025 (16.5)8,674 4.351 19,570 1.5
I
11970c 79,739 278,145 3.49 66.670 1(86.6)60.380 2.233 4 057 258.640 3.88 13,069 (16.4)8.654 4,415 19.505 1.49
?11976e 104,000 339,000 3.26 82,000 (7~.8)70,000 2,000 8000 298,000 3.71 22,000 (21.2)14,000 9.000 41,000I-'
tv
li900f i (26.8)22,606 12,923132,369 385.608 2.91 96,840 (7~.2)82,102 4,683 10 055 332,161 3.43 35,529 53.447 1.5
II ,
*Person per household.I I
a6y def1n1t10n,Pr1mary Fam111es and pr1mary ind1V1duals sum to total households.
bU•S•Census of Populat1on,1960,General ~opulat1on Character1st1cs PC(l)36,Table 19,pp.3-26,May 1961.
cU.S.Census of Populat1on,Detailed charalte~lst1cs PC{l)03,AlaJka,'Table 153,pp.3-246,June 1972.
I I !
dU•S•Census of Population~General Character~stics pCel)63,TablJ 22,pp.3-43,September 1971.
eCurrent Populat10n Reports,Populat1on chiralter1st1cs,Ser1es P-20,No.334,Table 4,p.24,January 1979.
I!i
f U•S•Department of Commerce,Bureau of the C~nsus,Supplementary Report,Advance Estimates of Soc1al,Econom1c,
and Housing Characterist1cs.Table P-l,1980.I i
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APPENDIX E
ISER MAP ECONOMIC MODELING SYSTEM:
REGIONALIZATION MODEL
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and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
E.L Model Description .· · · · ·
E-1
E.2.Flow Diagram . . . . . . .·.· ·
E-5
E.3.Inputs . .. .· · ··E-7
E.4.Variable and Parameter Names ·· · ·
E-9
E.5.Parameter Values ·.· ·
E-13
E.6.Model Validation . . . . . . . .
E-25
E.7.Programs for Model Use ·..· · · · ·
E-29
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
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Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
E.l.Model Description
Introduction
This appendix presents in general outline form the structure of
the revised regionalization model which allocates population,
households,and employment to the census division level from a
simulation of the state economic model.Southeast census divisions
and Bristol Bay Borough census divisions are aggregated due to a
prior constraint imposed by limited computer capabilities.The
model essentially takes cross-sectional information on employment
and population and projects the panel forward through time.The
regional allocations are affected by variation over time in the
location of basic sector and government activity.The total support
employment and dependent population proportions vary over time to
maintain consistency with the results of the state model.
In developing this model,several major objectives have been
addressed as follows:
o that the structure be simple and generalizable
o that the parameters be specified in terms with clear,
intuitive meaning
o that the regions be disaggregated to census division
levels
o that the model be sufficiently flexible to be tied
easily to the MAP statewide model
As such,the main strength of the model is in providing
interregional consistency for any simulation analysis.On the other
hand,because it treats each region in quite aggregate form,it
cannot substitute for a detailed economic analysis for a particular
labor market area,and in general the chance of projection error
increases as the size of the census division analyzed declines.
The model consists of two components.First,given an exogenous
estimate of statewide employment by sector (provided from a
corresponding state model run)and vectors of basic and government
employment in each of the twenty regions (1970 census division
aggregates and Alaska Department of Labor,Labor Market Areas),the
employment component of the model allocates support and total
employment to each of the twenty regions.The population component
then uses these·estimates along with estimates of statewide
population and households (from the statewide model)to generate
regional population and household allocations.
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and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
The Employment Component .
For each of the twenty regions,the model projects three types
of emp loymen t :bas ic,government,and support.The bas ic sec tor
consists of (1)all sectors or portions of sectors treated as
exogenous in the state model:agriculture,fisheries,exogenous
manufacturing,mining,exogenous construction,and a portion of
transportation,as well as (2)some sectors which are endogenous in
the state model:endogenous construction,forestry,miscellaneous,
endogenous manufacturing,proprietors,and tourism employment.
Government consists of federal civilian and military employees as
well as state and local employees.State and local government are
endogenous in the state model,but exogenous in the regionalization
model.The support sector is defined as all other employment.
Total employment (M.aa)in each region aa is the sum of basic
(B.aa),government (G.aa),and support (S.aa)employment.
M.aa =B.aa +G.aa +S.aa
Support employment in any region aa is a func tion of total
employment in every region of the state as follows:
bb
S.aa =S M.bb *A.aa.bb *BETA
I
J
1)
1. I
--...------...---"where-·A.aa-.bb-is··the-proportion of support-sec·tor--empl-oyment
stimulated by an increase in total employment in region bb which is
observed in region aa ••The preliminary estimate is adjusted by the
parameter BETA to yield a final figure which,when aggregated,is
consistent with the state model simulation.According to this model
formulation,an increase in basic or government employment in a
single region can,in theory,give rise directly and indirectly to
support employment in every other region of the state •
._._,,-_._-----__.--_---._.----__-,,-_...\
The su pportemp1 oynlen tiscalcui'atecr-·for-each-i-"eglon-aa"·j)·a:"se-a.-------",,-------.I
---------u-p-o--n-d,---em-a-n~d-in region Do as "foTlows:--.-.-----.-.------...-----------.--
S.aa.bb =A.aa.bb *M.bb *BETA
The Population Component
Population ("P.aa)in each region is a function of residence--
adjusted employment.Specifically,
bb
PRE.aa =PM.aa *S M.bb *IM.aa.bb
where PRE .aa is a preliminary population estimate for region aa,
IM.aa.bb is the proportion of workers employed in region bb (M.bb)
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May 1983
who live in region aa,and PM.aa is the ratio of population to
residence-adjusted employment in region aa.This preliminary
estimate is forced to conform in the aggregate to total state
population by multiplying through by an adjustment factor (ADJ).
This yields final population (P.aa).
P.aa =PRE.aa *ADJ
Since the 1970 census division boundaries were changed in 1980
and were renamed census areas,the population by 1980 census areas
(PCEN .cc)is calculated from the estimates of population by 1970
census divisions (P.aa)as follows:
aa
PCEN.cc =S P.aa *PC.cc.aa
where PC.cc.aa is the proportion of population in region aa (1970
censu~division)allocated to region cc (1980 census area).
From these regional population figures,a preliminary value for
the number of households (HPRE.cc)can be calculated as follows:
HPRE.cc =(PCEN.cc -PGQ.cc)/HHSZ.cc
where PGQ.cc is population in group quarters and HHSZ.cc is average
household size in region cc.The preliminary figure is adjusted
using the ratio ADJHH for consistency with the state simulation
result (HHCEN.cc).A final product of the model is a set of
household figures based upon the 1970 census divisions using the
same allocation factors as employed in allocating population (HH.aa).
E-3
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E.2 .Flow Diagram
Flow L:iiagram
E.2 MAP Regionalization Model
Scenario Generator
and
State Model
Basic and Govt.
Employment
Total Employment
by Place of Work
Support
Employment
Total
Employment
in
Other
Regions
Households'
'Consistency Jdjustment JDplieu to conforr.,
with state mudel simul.1lion result.
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E.3.Model Inputs
Provided by the Scenario Generator
Baa Portion of basic employment in region aa (mining
[EMP 9],exogenous cons truc t ion [EMCNX],exogenous
manufacturing [EMMX],exogenous transportation [EMT9X],
agriculture [EMAGRI],fishing [EMFISH])
Gaa Portion of government employment in region aa (federal
civilian and military [EMGC and EMGM])
Provided by MAP State Economic Model
HH Households
POP Population
Provided by the Program for Running the Model*
B.aa
BETA
G.aa
Total basic employment in region aa (EMP9,EMM9,
EMCN,EMA9,EMT9X,EMPRO,EMTOUR)
Support employment/total employment «EM99-EMA9-
EMM9-EMCN-EMP9-EMT9X-EMPRO-EMGA-EMGF-EMTOUR)/EM99)
Government employment in region aa (EMGC,EMGM,
EMGS,EMGL)
*The program used to run the regionalization model converts the basic
sector employment from the scenario generator,utilizing output from the
MAP state economic model,into the basic sector employment definition
used in the regionalization model.
E-7
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E.4.Variable and Parameter Names
Variables
M.aa
G.aa
B.aa
S.aa
S.aa.bb
P.aa
PCEN.cc
HH.aa
HHCEN.cc
Total employment,region aa (EM99)
Government employment,region aa (EMGC,EMGM,EMGS,EMGL)
Basic employment,region aa (EMP9,EMCN,EMM9,EMA9,EMTOUR,
EMT9X,EMPRO)
Support employment,region aa (M.aa -G.aa -B.aa)
Support employment in region aa caused by economic activity
in region bb
Popu1ationa ,region aa
Population,region cc
Households,region aa
Househo1ds b ,region cc
Parameters
A.aa.bb Proportion of support sector employment stimulated by
increase in total employment in region bb which occurs in
region aa
IM.aa.bb Percent of workers employed in region bb who live in
region aa
PM.aa Ratio of population to residence-adjusted employment in
region aa
HHSZ.cc Average household size in 1980 in Census Division cc
PGQ.cc Population in group quarters in 1980 in Census Division cc
PC.cc.aa Proportion of population in region aa (1970 Census division
definiton)allocated to region cc (1980 Census area
definition)
aA preliminary population,PRE.aa,is calculated for internal use.
bA preliminary household,HPRE.cc,is calculated for internal use.
E-9
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Suffixes
aa Labor Market Areas--1970 Census Divisions
Use in Model
Yes *
.~
l
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
Aleutian Islands
Anchorage
Angoon
Barrow-North Slope
Bethel
Bristol Bay
Bristol Bay Borough
Cordova-McCarthy
Fairbanks
Haines
x
x
11
x
x
x (includes 7)
6
x
x
11
11 Juneau x (includes 3,10,
13,19,20,22,
23,28)
1.-{
12
13
14
15
16'-r7 .
18
19
20
21
Kenai-Cook Inlet
Ketchikan
Kobuk
Kodiak
Kuskokwim.Matanuskal Susitna.···
Nome
Outer Ketchikan
Prince of Wales
Seward
x
11
x
x
x
....---_.~....._~
x
x
11
11
x
J
11
11
11
x
22 Sitka
23 Skagway/Yakutat
.........---..........··2A·Southeast·Fairbanks ...--._.·-·..-x······------..-.
.-~~_25-._-Up.per-yu.kon......~~....__~__...~...x~_._._.__...
26 Valdez/Chitina/Whittier x
27 Wade Hampton x
28 Wrangell/Petersburg
29 Yukon/Koyukuk
ST
RB
AG
AM
NR
FG
IR
State
Railbelt =2 +9 +12 +17 +21 +24 +26
Greater Anchorage =2 +12 +17 +21
Anchorage +MatSu =2 +17
Non-Railbe1t =ST -RB
Greater Fairbanks =9 +24
Intertied Railbelt =RB -26
*Aggregated into area indicated.,f
E-lO \I
cc --1980 Census Areas
01 North Slope
02 Kobuk
03 Nome
·04 Yukon/Koyukuk
05 Fairbanks
06 Southeast Fairbanks
07 Wade Hampton
08 Bethel
09 Dillingham
10 Bristol Bay Borough
11 Aleutian Islands
12 Matanuska/Susitna
13 Anchorage
14 Kenai Peninsula
15 Kodiak
16 Valdez/Cordova
17 Skagway/Yakutat/Angoon
18 Haines
19 Juneau
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MAP Documentation
May 1983
Used in Model
Yes *
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
10
x (includes 09)
x
x
x
x
x
x
19
19
x (includes 17,
18,20,21,22,
23)
20
21
22
23
Sitka
Wrangell/Petersburg
Prince of Wales/Outer Ketchikan
Ketchikan Borough
19
19
19
19
*Aggregated into area indicated.
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HHSZ.cc
PGQ.cc
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E.5.Parameter Values
Average Household Size
Population in Group Quarters
/.
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These parameters are calculated from the 1980 census as shown in
Tab1eE.l.
TABLE E.l.
1980 Census Area
(Aggregated as
Required by Model)
Average
Household Size
(HHSZ.'cc)
Population in
Group Quarters
(PGQ .cc)
(thousands)
1
I
I IIi
I'IJ
1 North Slope 3.91
2 Kobuk 4.2
3 Nome 3.7
4 Yukon/Koyukuk 3.18
5 Fairbanks 2.78
6 Southeast Fairbanks 3.16
7 Wade Hampton 4.87
8 Bethel 4.05
9 Di11inghama 0
10 Bristol Bay Borough 3.68
11 Aleutian Islands 3.27
12 Matanuska/Susitna 3.06
13 Anchorage 2.80
14 Kenai Peninsula 2.92
15 Kodiak 3.06
16 Valdez/Cordova 2.84
17 Skagwab/Yakutat/Angoonb 0
18 Haines 0
19 Juneau 2.89
20 Sitkab 0
21 Wrange11/Petersburg b 0
22 Prince of Wa1es/
Outer Ketchikanb 0
23 Ketchikanb 0
aAggregated with Bristol Bay Borough
bAggregated with Juneau
SOURCE:1980 Census of Population
E-13
.365
.048
.088
.614
3.339
.399
.055
.118
o
.339
2.548
.324
4.848
.32
.681
.702
o
o
1.418
o
o
o
o
PM.aa
Institute of Social
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MAP Docume~tation
May 1983
Ratio of Population to Residence-Adjusted Employment
This parameter is calculated using the most recent population
and employment estimates of the Department of Labor (see Table
E.2).The 1981 population estimate is adjusted to a labor-market
basis using PC.cc.aa to be consistent with employment data by labor
markets.Employment by place of residence is estimated using the
interregional residence adjustment matrix,IM.aa.bb,applied to an
estimated 1981 regional distribution of employment.This estimate
is determined by running the regiona1ization model to allocate
regionally the estimated 1981 statewide employment.The simplest
way to accomplish this is to run the model once and then calibrate
PM.aa to hit the correct population figure.
E-14
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TABLE E.2.
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May 1983
CALCULATION OF POPULATION/RESIDENT
EMPLOYMENT RATIO (PM.aa)
I
I }
Estimated Residence-
Adjusted Average
Annual Employment
Labor Market Area 1981
Census
Population
1981
Census Population
per Avg.Annual
Employed Resident
(PM.aa)
1 J
U
fJ
lJ
u
u
1 Aleutian Islands 2.556 8.624 3.374
2 Anchorage 87.458 180.740 2.066
4 Barrow/North Slope 1 .591 7.098 7.1
5 Bethel 2.983 9.579 3.211
6 Bristol Bay*1.920 5.716 2.977
8 Cordova/McCarthy .903 2.374 2.629
9 Fairbanks 26.047 58.313 2.239
11 Juneau**27.495 55.985 2.036
12 Kodiak/Cook Inlet 8.984 23.574 2.624
14 Kobuk 1.586 4.960 3.127
15 Kodiak 5.461 9.728 1.782
16 Kuskokwim .468 2.577 5.506
17 Matanuska-Susitna 6.183 19.123 3.093
18 Nome 1.910 7.565 3.961
21 Seward .757 2.947 3.893
24 Southeast Fairbanks 1.472 5.734 3.895
25 Upper Yukon .485 1.229 3.534
26 Va1dez/Chitina/
Whittier 3.023 6.471 2.141
27 Wade Hampton 1.077 4.726 4.388
29 Yukon/Koyukuk 1.665 5.122 3.076
ST Statewide 183.024 422.185 2.307
1The 1980 population of 4.199 was used for Barrow due to a change in
the definition of residence in 1982.
*Inc1udes 7
**Includes 3,10, 13, 19,20,22,23,28
E-15
A.aa.bb
Institute of Social
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May 1983
Interregional Employment Interaction Matrix
Regional employment for 1979 was available from the Alaska
Department of Labor publications,specifically Statistical Quarterly
and Alaska Economic Trends.The breakdown of such employment by
basic,government,and support sectors is shown in Table E.3 for
--1979.
Since the major concern of the regional model is to capture the
effect of support sector demands which are supplied in regions other
than the one giving rise to such demands,rather than to examine the
effects of differential support demands across regions,it seems
plausible,or at least not overly restrictive,to impose the
condition that the ratio of support employment generated by a unit
of basic employment is the same wherever the basic employment
occurs.The difference between regions,then,is solely the
difference in the locations from which these demands will be
supplied.
This assumption has the obvious disadvantage that it neglects
real interregional differences in demand for support sector
services.However,it also has several advantages which may more
than compensate for this shortcoming.Most obviously,it reduces
our estimation problem by n-l parameters.More importantly,it is
extremely valuable as a tool for maintaining consistency with the
statewide MAP model,in both a static and a dynamic sense.
--Gur-rently,-a unit-of -basic sector employment in -the state-model has
the same static employment impact regardless of its location in the
state.Regionally varying support/basic ratios would produce
differing total statewide static impacts by location,thus being
inconsistent with the state model.Furthermore,the introduction of
BETA (the ratio of support to total employment from the state model)
exogenously provides a valuable tool for maintaining dynamic
consistency between the models.By letting BETA vary with time so
as to reflect the corresponding state model simulation,we both
-----------~---"-forCe EnematriX{A.~aa~bb)""to vary""ovei"""time "-EorefleCf"thesame------"
---------degree-o f~sfrucfuralcnaligerepresEmfed--oytne -sfa ce moaeranacforc e ----------
the employment totals to replicate the statewide results.
The major reason that not all support sector requirements are
supplied internally within the region is that it ~Y'ould be more
costly to do so than to secure those services from a different
region.It is only natural,then,that the cost of supply should be
the major determining factor in deciding to which other regions to
allocate the supply.Such costs as transportation,communication,
etc.are generally expected to increase with distance and to
decrease with the size of the support sector source for the region.
We hypothesize that the location of support services is chosen in
such a way as to minimize the costs of providing the required
services observed in region bb from each of the sources of such
supply aa.Cost between locations is an increasing function of
distance and an inverse function of employment in the supplying
region.
E-16
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May 1983
TABLE E.3.EMPLOYMENT COMPOSITION,1979
Region
1 Aleutian Islands
2 Anchorage
4 Barrow/North Slope
5 Bethel
6 Bristol Bay*
8 Cordova/McCarthy
9 Fairbanks
11 Southeast Alaska**
12 Kenai/Cook Inlet
14 Kobuk
15 Kodiak
16 Kuskokwim
17 Matanuska-Susitna
18 Nome
21 Seward
24 Southeast Fairbanks
25 Upper Yukon
26 Valdez/Chitina/
Whittier
27 Wade Hampton
29 Yukon/Koyukuk
ST Statewide
377
45,404
594
1,917
839
403
11,191
9,475
2,819
402
1,644
123
1,505
1,083
433
240
99
715
208
506
79,977
2,463
13,828
3,467
420
1,778
1,005
3,584
9,284
3,564
114
3,631
13
560
298
709
149
25
678
23.6
807
46,613
Government 2
(Gi)
3,264
34,009
1,514
1,360
1,197
344
12,801
11 ,081
1,481
935
2,051
435
1,345
980
390
1,636
302
927
595
1,208
77 ,855
6,104
93,241
5,575
3,697
3,814
1,752
27,576
29,840
7,864
1,451
7,326
571
3,410
2,361
1,532
2,025
426
2,320
1,039
2,521
204,445
1Mining,manufacturing,construction,
fisheries,and miscellaneous.
agricu1ture-forestry-
LJ
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2Federa1,state,and local government
*Inc1udes Bristol Bay and Bristol Bay Borough Census Divisions
**Inc1udes the following Census Divisions:Angoon,Haines,Juneau,
Ketchikan,Outer Ketchikan,Prince of Wales,Sitka,Skagway-Yakutat,
and Wrangell-Petersburg.
SOURCE:Alaska Economic Projections for Electricity Requirements
for the Rai1be1t,ISE~,1981.
E-17
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May 1983
The A.aa.bb matrix was estimated by a linear programming routine
for the problem of minimizing the cost of service delivery using
1979 data.It is presented in Table E .4.The solution,A.aa .bb,
comprises a matrix which we call the interregional employment
interaction matrix.Each entry represents the share of support
requirements for region bb supplied from region aa.Each of the
columns,therefore,must sum to unity.Thus,a quick glance down
each column provides a subjective test of the plausibility of the
matrix.!:..priori,one would expec t nonzero entries in all of the
diagonal elements and along the rows of the regional support centers
(Bethel,Fairbanks,Nome)and probably along the entire row
corresponding to Anchorage,which is a statewide support center.
The pattern is as would have been expected.All diagonal terms are
nonzero,with the larger support centers being self-sufficient
vis-a-vis the res t of the state (having diagonal entries of 1).
Anchorage and Fairbanks appear to be the only significant support
centers,with Anchorage supplying most regions and Fairbanks
supplying Kuskokwim,Upper Yukon,and Yukon/Koyukuk.Two local
support centers emerge,with Bethel supporting Wade Hamption and
Nome supporting Kobuk.
A complete description of the methodology used
matrix appears in Alaska Economic Projections
Electricity Requirements for the Railbelt,ISER.
to derive this
for Estimating
J
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Institute of Social and
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MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE E.4.INTERREGIONAL EMPLOYMENT INTERACTION MATRIX (A.aa.bb)
Demand Region
Supply Region 01 02 04 05 06 08 09 11 12 14 15 16 17 18 21 24 25 26 27 29
01 Aleutian Islands .16
02 Anchorage .84 1••73 .44 .41 .19 .08 .01 .43 .28 .7
04 Barrow .27
05 Bethel 1.
06 Bristol Bay .56
08 Co rdova/McCarthy .59
09 Fairbanks 1..45
11 Southeast Alaska .81
12 Ken~i/Cook Inlet .92
I )I I 14 Kobuk .71.)
15 Kodiak .57
16 Kuskokwim .55
E-19
.21 .25
.49
.41 .24
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
IM.aa.bb Interregional Residence Adjustment Matrix
The interregional residence adjustment matrix calculates the
place of residence of workers employed in Alaska.It is an expanded
and refined version of the Interregional Wage and Employee Flow
Matrix constructed for the econometric model of Anchorage (see
Municipality of Anchorage:Economic Modeling Project,ISER,1982,
p.II-24).
Four sources of information are used to construct the matrix.
The first is the U.S.Census data on commuting which provides
information on the proportion of residents in a region who are
employed outside the region.The second is an analysis of tax
returns by Alaskan places which,when compared to wages and salaries
earned by place of work,provides a comparison of wage~earned by
workers in a region and workers living in a region.The third is
the residency adjustment figures of the Bureau of Economic Analysis
which provides another estimate of the ratio of wage and salary
income earned in a region to resident wage and salary income.The
fourth is the preliminary results of a special census for
oi 1-re1ated work sites on Alaska I s North Slope conducted by the
Alaska Department of Labor which reports usual place of residence of
oil field employees.This census provided the basis for the column
vector of the matrix for Barrow,after adjustment for non-oi1-
related employment on the North Slope.
~..~._..EiLlinginthe__other_~cel1s_of.the matrix involved-_a JudgmentaL---~-
approach because the available data left too ~any degrees of freedom
to specify values for the 360 remaining cells.
The first step was calculation of the diagonal e1ements--the
proportion of employment in each region done by residents of the
region.This involved the following equation:
""j
]
IM.aa.aa =*WR
where %is the proportion of workers reporting employment outside
their census area of residence in 1980 (1980 Census Table 36,STF3);
WR is wages reported by residents on their 1978 income tax returns
(Federal Income Taxpayer Profile 1978,Alaska Department of Revenue,
1981);and WP is wages and salaries paid in 1978 by labor market
area (Statistical Quarterly,Alaska Department of Labor).The
resulting parameter is net of bo~h outflows of wages by nonresidents
and inflows of wages by commuting residents.Table E.5 shows the·
ratio of wages reported to wages paid in 1978 and demonstrates a
considerable amount of job commuting,particularly in certain census
divisions.
Institute of Social
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MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE E.5.WAGES PAID BY LOCATION AND WAGES EARNED
BY RESIDENTS IN 1978
(million $)
3,634.1
1,102,062.0
191.9
1,737.3
532.6
102.6
32.6
2.4
41.0
8.8
73.1
26.1
1
I
Census Division
Matanuska-Susitna
Kobuk
Skagway/Yakutat
Haines
Kenai/Cook Inlet
Upper Yukon
Va 1dez/Chitina/
Whittier
Wade Hampton
Seward
Bethel
Juneau
Anchorage
Fairbanks
Ketchikan
Nome
Angoon
Wrangell/Petersburg
Kuskokwim
Sitka
Southeast Fairbanks
Bristol Bay
Outer Ketchikan
Kodiak
Yukon/Koyukuk
Cordova/McCarthy
Prince of Wales
Bristol Bay Br.
Aleutian Islands
Barrow/North Slope
Alaska
United States
(1)
Wages a
Paid
52.5
15.5
12.5
6.8
147.3
5.5
40.7
8.7
20.2
36.0
17 .8
8.4
86.7
54.4
21.8
14.7
13.9
85.3
237.3
(2)
Wages b
Reported
by
Residents
110.4
21.5
14.6
7.4
160.4
6.0
44.3
9.0
19.1
31.7
169.0
1,513.2
459.0
86.6
27.3
2.0
33.6
6.9
56.7
19.4
13.0
,5.9
60.6
32.8
12.6
7.5
5.7
14.5
27.0
2,977.9
1,092,000.0
(2)-(1)
Net Inflo
(Outflo)
58.2
6.0
2.1
0.6
13.1
0.5
3.6
0.3
(1.1)
(4.3)
(22.9)
(224.1)
(73.6)
(16.0)
(5.3)
(0.4)
(7.4)
(1.9)
(16.4)
(6.7)
(4.8)
(2.5)
(26.1)
(21.6)
(9.2)
(7.2)
(8.2 )
00.8)
(210.3)
(656.2)
(10,062.0)
(3)/(1)
Wages
Reported
as Percent
of Wages Paid
211
139
117
110
109
109
109
103
95
88
88
87
86
84
84
83
82
79
78
74
73
70
70
60
58
51
41
17
11
82
99
aU.S.Department of Commerce,Bureau of Economic Analysis.
bA1aska Department of Revenue,Federal Income Taxpayers Profile
1978,December 1981.
E-21
Institute of Social
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MAP Documentation
May 1983
Off-diagonal elements are best understood by thinking of the
columns where the elements in a particular column represent the
percentage of employees working in the location represented by that
column who live in each census area.To determine these elements,
three assumptions are made.First,Alaskan residents earn no wage
income outside of Alaska.Second,non-Alaskan residents can earn
wage income in Alaska.Third,based upon a general knowledge of the
state,certain elements can be assumed to be zero,thus reducing the
number of degrees of freedom for the problem considerably.The
matrix was then regionally aggregated into seven regions,and the
wage income earned by nonresidents in each region was allocated to
the other six and out of the state so that each column summed to one
and each row completely allocated all earned income.The resulting
parameters were then split into the twenty regions proportionately,
except in a few instances where judgment about local conditions
resulted in an adjustment.The full matrix is shown as Table E.6 •
J
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E-22 1
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE E.6.INTERREGIONAL RESIDENCE ADJUSTMENT MATRIX (IM.aa.bb)
Place of Work
Place of Residence 01 02 04 05 06 08 09 11 12 14 15 16 17 18 21 24 25 26 27 29
01 Aleutian Islands .41
02 Anchorage .09 .86 .38 .09 .09 .02 .02 .02 .09 .02
04 Barrow .08
05 Bethel 0 .86 .02
06 Bristol Bay .5
08 Cordova/McCarthy .55
09 Fairbanks .16 .86 .05
11 Southeast A1 aska .01 .84
12 Kena if
Cook In let .02 .06 .02 .02 .97 .02
14 Kobuk .01
15 Kodiak .02 .02 .69 .02
16 Kuskokwim .78
17 Matanuska/
Susitna .02 .02 .06 .02 .02 .01 .01 .01 .02 .01
18 Nome .0 .79
21 Seward .80
24 S.E.Fairbanks .01 .69
25 Upper Yukon .005
26 Va 1dez/Ch it in a/
Whittier .01
27 Wade Hampton
29 Yukon/Koyukuk .01 .61
Total Residentia1*.56 .88 .78 .99 .65 .58 .86 .84 .74 .93 .79 .83 .75 .61
Out of A1 aska .44 .12 .22 .01 .35 .43 .14 .16 0 0 .26 .07 0 .21 .17 .25 0 0 0 .39
*Components may not sum to total due to rounding.
E-23
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
PC.cc.aa 1970 to 1980 Census Boundary Allocations
I
}
I
SOURCE:1980 Census,Population data by place
These allocations are based upon population by place from the 1980
Census.
PC.04.16
PC.04.25
PC.06.25
PC.08.16
.5079
.9475
.0525
.4921
.l
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Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
E.6.Model Validation
The regionalization model has been initialized on 1981
population.The year 1981 is considered to be less affected by the
temporary effects of the business cycle and the permanent fund
dividend distribution program than 1982.
Because accurate historical data on interregional commuter
patterns and a complete historical data set on basic employment by
region are not available,it is not possible to do a historical
simulation using the regionalization model.It is possible to
compare the historical trends in the regional distribution of
employment and population with the projections.
Historically,the proportion of state employment occurring in
the railbel t has remained remarkably constant (Table E.7)•Aside
from the years of peak construction of the oil pipeline,the
proportion has ranged between 67.1 and 68.6 percent since 1965.On
the other hand,there has been an increasing concentration of
population in the railbelt,growing from 62.1 percent of the total
in 1960 to 68.9 percent in 1980 (Table E.8).
The differentially more rapid population growth in the railbelt
(and conversely the differentially slower population growth outside
of the railbelt)is an interesting phenomenon explained partially by
the nature of the labor market.The demand for labor has been
increasing at a rapid pace his.torically throughout the state,as
reflected by the employment data.The growth in population through
in-migration augments the supply of labor to clear the labor
market.Outside of the railbelt,rates of unemployment have
historically been higher,indicating that employment can increase
without requiring population increase through in-migration.In
March 1982,for example,the unemployment rates for the railbelt and
nonrailbelt were 10.8 and 13.7 pecent,respectively.
The uncertainty surrounding projections of the regional
distribution of population is not so much where the employment
opportunities are located but where those workers who have the
skills necessary to do those jobs choose to live.The assumption
reflected in the structure of the regionalization model is that
there will be a continuation of the trend in concentration of
population in the railbel t but that the moderation of the growth
rate in population through in-migration will slow this trend •.
E-25
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State
M.ST
300.1
218.5
346.7
65.5
65.8
67.9
Railbelt
M.IR %of
Total
197.5
143.2
235.4
31.2
40.2
47.0
Southeast
Fairbanks Fairbanks
M.09 M.24
TABLE E.7.EMPLOYMENT
(thousand)
9.3
14.6
12.6
Cook Inlet
(Includes Seward)
M.12 +M.21
1.2 3.3 21.8 74.1 67.7 109.5
1.2 4.1 21.8 75.3 67.7 111.3
1.2 5.3 21.6 77 .4 67.3 115.0
1.1 6.1 22.1 79.3 67.7 117.2
1.1 5.6 24.0 85.3 68.1 125.3
1.2 5.0 24.3 88.5 68.5 129.2
-1.5 5.0 23.7 90.8 68.4 132.7
1.6 5.1 23.4 93.4 68.6 136.1
1.7 5.4 22.6 95.2 67.7 140.7
1.9 5.8 26.5 107.5 68.0 158.2
2.1 7.5 37.0 130.4 67.1 194.3
2.4 ._--_______7.9 _----_......_--_......_..__._-_......_-~
37.0 134.0 66.6 201.2-•._-_..__._~--_._._._--~-
2.7 8.6 31.9 134.9 70.0 192.6
3.1 7.8 29.4 130.9 68.4 191.5
3.3 8.1 29.3 132.0 68.2 193.7
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
3.4
4.4
5.1
Matanuska-
Susitna
M.17
Anchorage
M.02
HISTORICAL DATA SOURCE:·ISER data base;employment includes active-duty military and reservists
but not proprietors.
PROJECTION DATA SOURCE:Projection HER.9;employment includes proprietors.
Historical
1965 47.8
1966 48.2
1967 49.3
1968 50.0
1969 54.6
1970 58.0
1971 60.6
1972 63.3
1973 65.5
1974 73.3
1975 83.8
--~._~~.
1976 86.7
1977 91.7
1978 90.6
1979 91.3
Projection
1981 99.3
-------1990----125-;l-
2000 140.3
2010 168.6
HISTORICAL DATA SOURCE:U.S.Census.
I)LJ PROJECTION DATA SOURCE:Simulation HER.9.
TABLE E.8.POPULATION
(thousand)
E-27
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
I
E-28
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
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Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
E.7.Programs for Model Use
This MACRO takes output from a simulation using the
state economic'model and inputs provided by the
scenario generator on basic and government sector
employment by census division and runs the
regiona1ization model.
The definition of basic sector plus government
employment in the regiona1ization model includes the
following categories of employment:
EMP9
EMM9
EMCN
EMA9
EMT9X
EMPRO
EMTOUR
EMGA
EMGF
Mining
Total Manufacturing
Total Construction
Agriculture/Forestry/Fisheries
Exogenous Transportation
Proprietor Employment
Tourism Employment
State and Local
Federal
(
.J
In the state model,however,EMTOUR,EMGA,and
portions of EMA9,EMM9,EMCN,and EMPRO are
endogenous and thus not provided on a regional basis
from the scenario generator.This program includes
a procedure for converting the endogenous portions
of these industries to exogenous and regionalizing
them.
Specifically,the following variables are
regionalized and added to Baa to derive B.aa:
EMGN1 Endogenous Construction
EMA9-EMAGR1-EMAFISH Forestry and Nonc1assifiab1e
EMPR01 Endogenous Proprietor Employment
EMTOUR Tourism Employment
EMMO Endogenous Manufacturing
In addition,the following variable is regionalized
and added to Gaa to derive G.aa:
EMGA State and Local Government Employment
The parameters used in the regional allocation of
these variables are calculated using the 1979
regional distribution of employment.The values
used are shuwn in the accompanying table (Table E.9).
E-29
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE E.9.PARAMETER VALUES USED IN REGIONAL ALLOCATION
OF CERTAIN EXOGENOUS VARIABLES*
Region State and
Number Endogenous Local
aa Construction Forestry Proprietors Tourism Government
1 .01 0 .02 0 .01
2 .57 .45 .46 .33 .34
4 .03 0 0 0 .03
5 .01 0 .01 0 .03
6 .01 0 .01 0 .02
8 0 0 .01 .01 .01
9 .16 .27 .11 .13 .13
11 .10 .04 .23 .30 .22
12 .04 .17 .05 .07 .04
14 0 0 0 0 .02
15 .01 .02 .04 .04 .02
16 0 0 0 0 .01
17 .02 .02 .02
21 0 0 .01 0
24 0 0 .01 0 .01
25 0 0 0 0 .01
26 .01 0 .01 .11 .02
27 0 0 0 0 .01
29 .01 .01 0 0 .01
*May not sum to 1 due to rounding error.
E-30
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
APPENDIX F
ISER MAP ALASKA ECONOMIC HODEL:
VARIABLE AND PARAMETER DICTIONARY
Variable
ADI1DIS
ADI1REA
ADI1SD
AEX
AFTOT
AGI
AHG
ANCSA
Definitionj Units
average daily membership in district schools;thousand
average daily membership in REAA schools;thousand
average daily membership in district and REAA schools;
thousand
Alaskan personal income tax exemptions;million $
total armed forces personnel in 1980
gross income reported on Alaskan state personal
income tax returns;million $
Alaskan highway gasoline consumption per vehicle;
gallons
payment to Alaska Natives by federal and state
government under Alaska Native Claims Settlement
Act;million $
Historical Data Sourcea
.ADE,Annual RepOrt
ADE,Annual Report
ADE,Annual Report
Constructed from IRS,Statistics
of Income,ADL,Statistical
Quarterly and unpublished data,
and 1970 U.S.census
Alaska Air Command and Kruse,
Design and Implementation of
Alaska,1980 Reapportionment
Data Collection.Effort
Constructed from IRS,Statistics
of Income,ADL,Statistical
Quarterly and unpublished data,
and 1970 U.S.census
Constructed from Alaska Native
Land Claims,Arnold and BEA
personal income data
a No entry indicates either a constructed variable or no historical data available.
Data Source Abbreviations:
ADA -Alaska Department of Administration
AOC -Alaska Department of COmmerce and Economic Development
AOCR -Alaska Department of Community and Regional Affairs
ADE -Alaska Department of Education
ADL -Alaska Department of Labor
ADPW -Alaska Department of Transportation and Public Facilities
ADR -Alaska Department of Revenue
BEA -U.S.Department of COmmerce,Bureau of Economic Analysis
BOC -U.S.Department of COmmerce,Bureau of census
IRS -U.S.Department of Treasury,Internal Revenue Service
BALCAP84 net additions to the state capital stock put
___~_~_",'_~p-l agL~fter ~1983 ,~jnfl ate~L~CL~urrent ~~~~~
dOllar million
Variable
ATD
ATI
ATI.TT
ATT
BADD
BAL99
BAL99 1
BALCAB
BALCABBM
BALDF
BALDFl
BALGF
BALGFl
BALGFCP
Definition;Units
Alaska personal income tax deductions;million $
Alaska state personal income tax taxable income;
million $
Alaska state taxable personal income per
taxpayer;thousand $
Alaska state personal income tax returns -
individual plus joint returns;thousand
birth adjustment factor to account for birth of
Native children to non-Native women
combined state fund balances;million $
initial combined state fund balances;
mill ion $
state general fund revenues minus general fund
expenditures;million $
unrestricted general fund revenues minus
unrestricted general fund expenditures
development fund balance;million $
initial state development fund (hypothetical)
balance;million $
state general fund balance (available for
appropriations);million $
initial state general fund balance;million $
positive change in general fund balance from year to
year (if change negative,this takes zero value);
mill ion $
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
Constructed from IRS,Statistics
of Income,ADL Statistical
QuarterlY and unpublished data,
and 1970 U.S.census
Constructed from IRS,Statistics
of Income,AOL Statistical
Quarterly and unpublished data,
and 1970 U.S.Census
constructed from IRS Statistics
of Income and ADL Statistical
Quarterly
ADA,Annual Financial Report
~~uADA~;AnnualFi nancia 1 Report
,\
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Variable
BALGFP
BALLANDS
BALOCAL
BALPF
BALPFl
BASEHCNX
BASEPOP
BASEXCAP
BASEXGF
BASEXOPS
BASPDRPI
BCRUDE
BIU
BIUl
BL
Definition;Units
state general fund balance if positive;if state
general fund balance negative,then zero;million $
state plus local government current account balance;
million $
local government revenues minus nondebt financed
expenditures;million $
permanent fund balance;million $
initial state permanent fund balance;
mi 11 ion $.
a base case vector of EHCNX values used for
fiscal impact analysis in conjunction with
fiscal policy variable EXRL4
a base case vector of pop values used for
fiscal impact analysis in conjunction with
fiscal policy variable EXRL4
a base case vector of EXCAP values used for
fiscal impact analysis in conjunction with
fiscal policy variable EXRL4
base case expenditure value to be placed in
impact run to calculate difference in state
expenditures in real per capita terms
a base case vector of EXOPS values used for
fiscal impact analysis in conjunction with
fiscal policy variable EXRL4
base case value of RPI to be input into
impact run to calculate difference in state
expenditures in real per capita terms
Alaska crude civilian birth rate
the Basic Instructional Unit for School
Foundation distribution program;thousand $
initial value of Basic.Instructional Unit for
School Foundation distribut~on program;thousand $
Alaska business licenses issued;thousand
F-3
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983,
Historical Data Sourcea
ADA,Annual Financial Report
ADE,Annual Report
ADR,unpublished data
--~~~--GPGQi;j ~~--~-f-raGt-ion-ofGivHian~non-NaMvepopul aM on~-in ---
cohort ij in group quarters
andInstituteofSocial
Economic Research
HAP Documentation
Hay 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
\
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BOC.-1980-eensus--Tape S-TF2B~---~~---
..~
?
l
Constructed from ADL Statistical
Quarterly and PCOlART
.1970 U.S.census.Alaska public
use samples
Definition;Units
total Alaska civilian births;thousand
Alaska crude civilian non-Native death rate
Alaska crude civilian non-Native birth rate
proportion of Native erJl)loyment in sector ab
Alaska households headed by civilian non-
Native persons in cohort ij
Alaska civilian non-Native population in cohort ij
total Alaska civilian non-Native population
total Alaska civilian non-Native births to
civilian population
stochastic coefficient
federal cost of living adjustment for Alaska
state personal income tax purposes;million $
dUIIIIIY variable with value of 1 for year or
period of years indicated;units
Alaska civilian non-Native population in
cohort ij before migration
BTOT
Variable
BTHTOT
CBR
CDR
CEabN
CNNPij
CNNTOT
CHHij
COLA
Cij
D.80DEC6 dUIIIIIY variable with value of one in 1980
--------t'apering off-to zero 1""-6 years.reflecti-ng------
the fact that Alaskan wage rates are "sticky
downward"
DCRUDE Alaska crude civilian death rate
DEBTP82 sum of general obligation bonded debt
incllrred by the state after 1982;million $
DELEHP annual change in civilian erJl)loyment (EH96);
thousand
DF.***variable deflated to 1982 dollars (PDRPIBAS is base
year index);
Variable
OF.RSVP
DPI
DPI8
DPIRES
DTHINF
DTHTOT
DTaT
El99
ElBD
ElED
ElEDl
ElEDCP
ElNEDl
elPERS
EM.Ef1CN
EM.Ef1G9
EM.EHGA
Definition;Units
cumulative discounted value of petroleum
revenues received from 1982;million 1982 $
Alaska disposable personal income;million $
Alaska disposable personal income plus
residency adjustment;million $
total nonfederal,nons tate personal income
tax payments paid out of Alaskan personal
income for purposes of calculating disposable
personal income;million $
Alaska infant civilian non-Native deaths
total Alaska civilian non-Native deaths
total Alaska civilian deaths
total local government expenditures;million $
local government debt service;million $
local government education expenditures;million $
local government education expenditures
from own sources;million $
local government education expenditures for
capital outlays;million $
local government non-education expenditures
net of debt service;million $
local government personal services expenditures;
million $
ratio of construction to total employment
r~tio of total government to total employment
ratio of state and local government to total
employment
F-S
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
MAP Documentation
f1ay 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
BEA disposable personal income
data &ADA,Annual Financial
Report
BEA disposable personal income
data &ADA,Annual Financial
Report
BEA,disposable personal income
data
Bac,Governmental Finances
Bac,Governmental Finances
COnstructed from ADA,Executive
Budget and BOC,State Government
Finances
Bac,Governmental Finances
BOC,Governmental Finances
Bac,Governmental Finances
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Variable Definition;Units Historical Data Sourcea
EI1.EI1GF ratio of federal government to total employment
EI1.EI1NR ratio of total minus support type (SP),
government,construction,and petroleum
employment to total employment
EM.EI1NS ratio of total minus support type (SP)and
government to total employment
EI1.EI1P9 ratio of mining to total employment
EI1.EI1SP ratio of service type (T9,eM,PU,09,FI,S9)
to total employment
EI198 wage and salary and military employment;thousand
EM99 total wage and salary,nonwageand salary
(proprietor),and military employment;thousand
EM97 nonagricultural wage &salary employment;
-----~--~-_.--.--thousand----~..--..--..-.~-.~"-.'----"-.-
l
--I
I
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ADL,Alaska Labor Force
~&st-imates-~and-Stat-istleal-....
Quarterly
total wage and salary plus proprietor employment;
thousand
ratio of trade,finance,and service to total
eI1l>loyment
ratio of transport,communication,and pUblic
utilities to total employment
EM.EMTCU
EI1.EMSUP
EM96
EMAGRI
EMCNl
EMCNRT
EMCNX
wage and salary component of agriculture
employment;thousand
construction employment net of exogenous
construction employment;thousand
ratio of premium wage construction employment
to EM98net of premium wage construction-
employment.Employed as a measure of labor
market "tightness";percent
exogenous construction employment;thousand
F-6
ADL,Statistical Quarterly I
I
·1
I
]
I
Var;able
EMCNXl
EHCNX2
EHCU
EMDR
EMDW
EMDRNT
EMDTOUR
EMFISH
EMG9
EMGA
EMGC
"enclave"Mgh (premhii1)wage exogenous
construct;on employment;thousand
non-"enclave"low (nonnal)wage exogenous
construct10n employment;thousand
commun1cat10ns plus pUbl;c ut;l;t;es
employment;thousand
employment 1n reta11 trade;thousand
employment ;n wholesale trade;thousand
employment ;n retaH trade net.of tourhm;
thousand
tour1sm employment 1n trade sector;thousand
f;sh harvest1ng employment;thousand
federal,state,and local government
employment;thousand
state and local government employment;thousand
federal c;v;l;an employment;thousand
Inst;tute of Soc;al and
Econom;c Research
MAP Documentat;on
May 1983
constructed from ADL,unpubl;shed
worksheets
ADL,Stat1st1cal Quarterly
ADL,Stat;st;cal Quarterly
Improvements to Spec;f;cat;on
of the MAP Model
G.Rogers,Measur;ng the Soc;o-
econom;c Impact of Alaska's
Fhher;es
ADL,Stat;st;cal Quarterly
EMGF federal c;v;l;an and m;l;tary employment;thousand
EMGL local government employment;thousand
EMGM m;l;tary employment;thousand
EMGS state government employment;thousand
EMM91 manufactudng employment net of new large
project employment (EMMX1);thousand
EMMO employment ;n endogenous manufactur;ng;
thousand
EMMX exogenous manufactur;ng employment;thousand
EMMXl h1gh (prem;um)wage exogenous manufactur;ng
employment;thousand
F-7
ADL,Stat;st;cal Quarterly
ADL
ADL,StaHstkal Quarterly
AOL,Stat;stkal Quarterly
AOL,Stat;stkal Quarterly
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
MAP Documentation
Hay 1983
Variable Definition;Units Historical Data Sourcea
EMHX2 low wage exogenous manufacturing employment;
thousand
AD~.Statistical Quarterly
EMNA Native employment;thousand
EMNAT Native employment obtained from the income
distribution model;thousand
ADl,Statistical Quarterly
SEA employment data
total civilian non-Native employment;thousand
Native Corporation direct employment;thousand
total proprietor employment;thousand
Native employment obtained from the income
distribution model;thousand
total employment minus support type (SP),
government,construction,and mining;
thousand
total employment minus support type (SP)and
government
mining employment;thousand
F-8
proprietor employment net of fish harvesting;
thousand
Native employment rate based on Native enrollments;
percent
interim calculation of Native employment rate;
percent
fish harvesting proprietor employment;
thousand
ratio of wage and salary plus proprietor
employment to civilian population
EMNATX
EfIINNC
EfIINC
E~NS
EMOCSX
EfIINR
EfIIPRO
EfIIP9
EfIIPROl
EfIIPROFIS
EHRATNl
EfllRATN
EMRATE
sum of mining,exogenous construction,
exogenous transportation,and high wage
-----~--~-_._--------exogenous-manufactur-ing-ernpl oyment;-_.
thousand
DOL,Statistical Quarterly;
SEA employment data;and G.Rogers,
..........-.---..--~--.-.-,....----.--.--.-.--.--.--"~--...---..,+-~-"------------..-·-~-Mea-surrng-----the-Socloeconoonctrrpact--·--·
-----------------------of Alasl<a's Fistieries
Variable
EMS8NT
EMS91
EMSB
EMSP
EMS TOUR
EMSUP
EMT91
EMT9X
EMTCU
EMTNT
EMTOUR
EMTTOUR
EMX
EMab
EX.OSS
EX.NPET
Definition;Units
employment in support services (net of business.
tourism,and Native claims);thousand
service sector employment net of direct Native
Corporation employment;thousand
business service employment;thousand
transport,communication,public utility,trade,
finance,and service employment;thousand
tourism employment in service sector;thousand
trade,finance,and service eflllloyment;thousand
transportation employment net of exogenous
eflllloyment;thousand
exogenous (large pipeline project-related)
transportation employment;thousand
transport,communication,and pUblic utility
eflllloyment;thousand
employment in transportation net of tourism
and exogenous components;thousand
total tourism employment;thousand
transportation-related tourism eflllloyment;
thousand
extractive industries-related eflllloyment
consisting of mining and exogenous
construction;thousand
employment by industry;ab::CM CN D9 FI PU
GS Gl M9 S9 T9 A9 GM GC P9;thousand
ratio of debt service expenditures to
total state general fund expenditures
ratio of state "non-endownent"revenues to
total state general fund expenditures
F-9
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
AOl,Statistical Quarterly
Improvements to Specification
of the MAP Model
Improvements to Specification
of the MAP Model
Improvements to Specification
of the MAP Model
AOl,Statistical Quarterly
Variable
EX.NRP9
EX.PET
EX.R99S
EX.RP9S
EX.RSEN
EX.RSIN
EX.RVNT
Definition;units
ratio of state nonpetroleum revenues to
total state general fund expenditures
ratio of "enctownent"type revenues to total
state general fund expenditures
ratio of general fund plus Permanent Fund
revenues to total state general fund
expenditures
ratio of petroleum revenues to total
state general fund expenditures
ratio of endogenous revenues to total
state general fund expenditures
ratio of total fund earnings to total state
general-fund expenditures
ratio of general fund revenues net of
permanent fund contributions to total state
general fund expenditures
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
)
\
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EX99S total state government expenditures from
---------------------aH-funds=capital-and-operati ng;-mi-Hi on$--
EXANNU if EXRlOPB is in effect in the state operating
expenditure equation,the base amount of the
annuity which adds to state operating
expenditures;$
EXANSAV amount of state government saving when using
_____________________'fiscaL!ul e__~~ton _~~~_~OPB;.!!I.iJIi~l!__$______________________l-
EXBM.CAB
EXBM.END
EXBM.FD
EXBM.GRl
ratio of general fund current account balance
(BAlCABBM)to unrestricted general fund
expenditures
ratio of development fund withdrawals (EXDFWITH)
to unrestricted general fund expenditures
ratio of total fund balance (BAl99)to
unrestricted general fundexpeiiditures
ratio of revenues net of petroleum (RSGFBM+EXPFCON-
EXPF8AK*RSIP-RP9S)to unrestricted general fund
expenditures
Variable
EXBH.RV
EXBOND
EXBUD
EXCAP
EXCAP1
EXCAPFR
EXCAPIHP
·,.
Definition;Units
ratio of general fund unrestricted revenues to
unrestricted general fund expenditures
proportion of capital expenditures financed
by general obligation bonds and federal grants;
percent
state operating expenditures as defined in the
budget;million $
total state capital expenditures;million $
initial state capital expenditures;million $
capital expenditures for ferries--assumed to be
purchases out of state;million $
per capita impact state capital expenditures
used with fiscal rule EXRL4
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
HAP Documentation
May 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
constructed from ADA,
Annual Financial Report
ADA,Executive Budget
ADPW unpublished data
Goldsmith and Hogford,The
Relationship Between the
Alaska Natural Gas Pipeline
and State and Local Govern-
ment Expenditures
EXCAPNEW new additions to state capital stock in a
given year;million $
EXCAPOLD state.spending to replace capital stock put
in place prior to 1984
\EXCAPREP capital expenditures necessary to replace\.
state capital stock which depreciates
each year;million $
EXCDS state development operating expenditures
net of debt service;million $
EXCDS4 initial model estimate of state development
operating expenditures net of debt service
U before application of RATI01;million $
EXCDSNT development component of the state operating
budget net of transfers to local government;
mi 11 ion $
I )
EXCPS construction expenditures from state capital
project funds;million $
iJ
F-11
ADA,Executive Budget
ADA,Annual Financial Report
Variable
EXCPSFED
EXCPSGOB
EXCPSHY
EXCPSHYl
EXCPSH
Definition;Units
portion of capital project fund revenues from
federal capital grants;million $
portion of capital project fund revenues from
bond sales;million $
highway construction expenditures Out of state
capital project construction funds;million $
initial highway construction expenditures out.
of state capital project construction funds;
mi 11 ion $
portion of capital project fund revenues from
bond sales (used to calculate bond maturation);
million $
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
HAP Documentation
Hay 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
ADA,Annual Financial Report
ADA,Annual Financial Report
ADA,Annual Financial Report
ADA,Annual Financial Report
I
l
EXCPSNH
EXCPSNHl
EXDFl
EXDFCON
EXDFPCNT
EXDFWITH
EXDSS
EXDSSX
EXEDS
EXEDS4
n6nhighway construction expenditure out of
state capital project construction funds;
million $
initial nonhighway construction expenditures
out of state capital project construction funds;
million $
percent of state current account balance placed
into development fund (hypothetical);percent
development fund contribution;million $
percent of development fund earnings withdrawn;
percent
fund withdrawal .
annual debt service payment to service general
obligation bonded debt of the state;
million $
annual debt service payment to service general
obligation bonds outstanding at bi:!ginni ll 9 of
simulation period;million $
state education operating expenditures net
of debt service;million $
state education operating expenditure net of debt
service before application of RATI01;million $
ADA,Annual Financial Report
-}
1
J
l
J...
ADA,Annual Financial Report l
ADA,Annual Financial Report l
ADA,Executive BUdget j
l
~
J
Variable
EXEDSNT
EXELl
EXEL2
Definition;Units
state education operating expenditures net
of transfers to local government;million $
elasticity of state expenditures with respect
to population
elasticity of state expenditures with respect
to prices
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
EXEL3 elasticity of state expenditures with respect
to real per capita personal income
EXEL4 elasticity of state expenditures with respect
to personal income
EXELS elasticity of state expenditures to personal
income net of "enclave"erJlIloYment-related
income (PI3)
EXEL6
EXGF
EXGFBM
EXGFCAP
EXGFCHY
EXGFCHYl
EXGFCNH
11 EXGFCNHl\.~~
lJ EXGFOPER
EXGGS
lJ
elasticity of state expenditures to population
net of "enclave"construction erJlIloYment
state general fund expenditures;million $
state general fund expenditures net of
expenditures from restricted revenues;million $
state general fund capital outlays--actual
disbursements;million $
state general fund capital expenditures for
highways;million $
initial state general fund capital expenditures
for highways;million $
state general fund capital expenditures nonhighways;
million $
initial state general fund capital expenditures
nonhighways;million $
state general fund operating expenditures;million $
state general government operating expenditures
net of debt service;million $
ADA,Annual Financial Report
ADA,Annual Financial Report
ADA,Annual Financial Report
ADA,Annual Financial Report
ADA,Executive Budget
F-13
---~EXtIM82----constitut i onall y-mandated--1982-statespending
limit;million $
Variable
EXGGS4
EXHES
EXHES4
EXHYCAP
EXINREC
EXJUS
EXJUS4
EXLIM
EXLIMOK
EXNHYCP
EXNOPS
EXNRS
EXNRS4
EX0M84
Definition;Units
initial model estimate of state general government
operating expenditures net of debt service before
application of RATI01;million $
state health operating expenditures net of debt
service;million $
state health operating expenditures net of debt
service before application of RATI01;million $
state capital expenditures for highways;million $
state government interagency receipts;million $
state administration of justice operating
expenditures net of debt service;million $
state administration of justic:e operating
expenditures net of debt service before
application of RATI01;million $
state expenditures allowed by constitutionally
mandated spending limit;million $
actual state expenditures which can be supported
by revenues and general fund balance under
constitutionally mandated spending limit;million $
state capital expenditures for nonhighway projects;
state expenditures--total net of the operating
budget;million $
state natural resource operating expenditures
net of debt service;million $
state natural resource operating expenditures·
net of debt service before application of RATI01;
minion $
annual operations and maintenance cost
associated with incremental state capital
stock put in place in 1984 and succeeding
years;million $
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
ADA,Executive Budget
ADA,Annual Financial Report
ADA,Executive Budget
I
)
-~~-_.~~---~-~
1
ADA,Executive BUdget
IJ
Variable
EXOHCOST
EXONTR
EXOPS
EXOPSl
EXOPSIHP
EXPFl
EXPFBAK
EXPFCON
EXPFCONl
\
EXPFCONX
EXPFDIST
EXPFNEW
EXPFREIN
Definition;Units
annual operations and maintenance cost of
incremental state capital stock (EX0H84)
as a percentage of original cost;percent
state operating expenditures net of local
government transfers;million $
total state operating expenditures net of debt
service and University of Alaska nongeneral
fund assistance.It is the sum of the
nine functional categories;million $
initial total state operating expenditures
net of debt service and University of Alaska
nongeneral fund assistance.It is the sum of the
nine functional categories;million $
per capita impact state operation expenditure
used with fiscal rule EXRL4
percent contribution from available funds to
Permanent Fund;percent
percent of Permanent Fund earnings plowed back
into the Permanent Fund;percentage
total contributions to Permanent Fund.
including special appropriations and
reinvested earnings;million ~
contributions to the Permanent Fund.not
inclUding special appropriations;million $
special Permanent Fund contributions appropriated
from the general fund;million $
percent of Permanent Fund earnings transferred
to general fund which are distributed to
individuals;percent
constitutionally mandated Permanent Fund con-
tributions from petroleum revenues;million $
reinvested Permanent Fund earnings;million $
F-15
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
HAP Documentation
Hay 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
ADA.Executive Budget
ADA.Executive Budget
Goldsmith and Hogford.The
Relationship Between the
Alaska Natural Gas Pipeline
and State and Local Government
Expenditures
AOR.Revenue Sources
F-16
EXRL 1 po 11 cyswi tch whi ch.1f set at 1,determi nes state
operating expenditure growth based prlmarily upon
aggregate demand;
Variable
EXPPS
EXPPS4
EXPR99
EXPRCDS
EXPREDSl
EXPRGGS
EXPRHES
EXPRJUS
EXPRNRS
EXPRPER
EXPRPPS
EXPRTRS
EXPRUA
Deflnitlonj Units
state public protection operating expenditures
net of debt service;million $
state pUbllc protection operating expenditures
net of debt service before appllcatlon of RATI01;
mll110n $
total state personnel expenditures;milllon $
state personnel expenditures for development;
mi 11 ion $
state personnel expenditures for educatlon
net of Unlversity of Alaska;million $
state personnel expendltures for general
government;million $
state personnel expenditures for health;milllon $
state personnel expenditures for administration
of justice;milllon $
state personnel expenditures for natural resources;
adjustment to state personnel expenditures
data for conslstency with state government
~loyment data;percent
state personnel expenditures for public protection;
mlllion $
state personnel expenditures for transportatlon;
million $
wages and salarles of University of Alaska;
mll110n $
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
MAP Documentatlon
Hay 1983
Hlstorlcal Data Sourcea
ADA,Executlve Budget
ADA,Executive BUdget
ADA,Executive BUdget
ADA,Executive Budget
ADA,Executive BUdget
ADA,Executive Budget
ADA,Executlve Budget
ADA,Executlve Budget
ADA,Executlve Budget
ADA,Executive Budget
constructed from Unlversity of
AlaskarecordsandADL data
I
I
-I
I
I
)
I
I
Variable Definition;Units
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
EXRl2 policy switch which,if set at 1,detennines
state operating expenditure growth based upon
exogenous growth rate
EXRl3 policy switch which,if set at 1,detennines
state expenditure growth based upon real per
capita operating expenditure levels and real
per capita capital stock levels
n
11
EXRl4
EXRl40P
EXRlS
EXRlOP6
EXRlOP7
EXRlOPB
policy switch Which,if set at 1,detennines
state expenditure growth based upon a specified
expenditure level per impact individual (for
use in impact analysis)
policy switch used with EXRl4 with value of one
if enclave construction employment not counted
in impact population
policy switch Which,if set at 1,detennines
state expenditure growth based upon
constitutionally imposed spending limit
policy switch Which,if set at 1,detennines
state operating expenditure growth ba~ed upon
annual change in level of general fund balance
policy switch which,if set at 1,detennines
state operating expenditures growth based upon
saving a specified amount of revenues
policy switch which,if set at 1,detennines
state operating expenditure growth based upon
spending an annuity (EXANSAV)
II EXRPB4
U
EXSAVS
U
!1 EXSAVX
I I~
U EXSPCAP
annual cost for replacement of capital stock
put in place after 1983;million $
if EXRlOP7 is invoked in detennination of state
operating expenditures,this is the amount of
revenues not spent;million $
if EXRlOP7 is invoked in detennination of
state operating expenditures,this is the
exogenous amount of revenues not spent;
million $
special state capital appropriations;million $
F-17
andInstituteofSocial
Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
ADA,Executive BUdget
ADA,Executive Budget
ADA.Executive BUdget
Alaska Department of Health
••andSoc::iil15ervic::es and AlelslCa -
Native Medical center
Definition;Units
the allocation to operations when state
spending falls below the authorized spending
1imit;percent
the target allocation to operations when state
spending falls below the authorized spending
limit;percent .
state social services operating expenditures
net of debt service;million $
initial values for state SUbsidy programs
initiated after 1980;million $
state social services operating expenditures
net of debt service before application of RATI01;
million $
state subsidy programs initiated after 1980;
mill ion $
state Permanent Fund dividend distribution;
million $
state transportation operating expenditures
net of debt service before application of RATI01;
million $
Uni versi ty of Alaska operat:i:~n.g~b=~Uu:dge:~t:~;__..m......i ~l_,~1i_,'.:o...n$.~.~A~:DA:2•..:E=x=e=cu=t=i=ve=B=u=dg~e=t~.___~,_,_",__,
non-Native fertility rate for female cohort j
federal adjusted gross income reported on federal
tax returns filed from Alaska;million $
annual growth in total state fund balance
annual growth in per capita value of combined
state funds
Variable
EXSPlIT
EXSPLITX
EXSSS
EXSSS4
EXSUBS
EXSUBSl
EXTRNS
EXTRS4
EXTRS
EXUA
FAGII
FERTj
G.BAl99
G.BAl9PC
'---"'~---_._-"-"-'--"----~-'~-----,---,--,----,--
state transportation operating expenditures
net of debt service;million $
)
1
)
)
.)
1
iC;1
1
)
1
I
I
)
----F-AGI~---·federal~adjusted-gross-incorne-earned~in-A-1aska;'-----Constructed-froorIRS-;-Stati-sti-cs--·-
million $of Income and ADl Statistical )
Quarterly
I
)
I
-)
[
!-1
[ I
!1
I 1
!
I I
[]
11(J
I 1
I j
!J
U
fJ
1 ·1I...
Variable
G.El99
G.EH99
G.EX99S
G.PDRPI
G.POP
G.PR.DPI
G.PR.PI
G.R.WR98
G.RNSPC
G.RSEN
G.SRPC
G.XONRPC
GOBONDl
GODT
GODTX
GR
GRDIRPU
GREXCAP
GREXOPS
Definition;Units
annual growth in local government expenditures
annual growth in total employment
annual growth in state government expenditures
annual growth in Alaskan relative price index
annual growth in population
annual growth in real disposable personal income
per capita
annual growth in real per capita personal income
annual growth in the average annual real wage
annual growth in endogenous state revenues per capita
annual growth in endogenous state revenues
annual growth in real state expenditures per capita
annual growth in real per capita state expenditures
net of local transfers (EXONTR)
general obligation bonded indebtedness of local
government;million $
general obligation bonded indebtedness of state;
million $
general obligation bonded indebtedness of the state
from debt incurred before 1983;million $
gross business receipts;million $
annual growth rate of U.s.real disposable personal
income per capita;percent
nominal growth rate of state capital expenditures
using EXRl2
nominal growth rate of state operating expenditures
using EXRl2
F-19
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
HAP Documentation
Hay 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
ADCR.Alaska Taxable
ADA.Annual Financial Report
ADA.Annual Financial Report
ADA.Annual Financial Report
variable
GRRPCEX
GRRWEUS
GRSSCP
GRUSCPI
GTR
Gj
HH
HH24
HH25.29
HH30.54
HH55
HHC
HHM
HHN
HHRij
HHSIZE
HHSIZEC
HHSIZEN
HHij
Definition;Units
growth rate of real per capita state expenditures
using EXRl3
annual real growth rate of U.S.average weekly
earnings;percent
growth rate of state real per capita state capital
stock using EXRl3
annual growth rate of U.S.consumer price index;
percent
gross taxable receipts;million $
shift factor for aging of cohorts
total Alaska households;thousand
households:head under age.of 25;thousand
households:head between ages of 25 and
29;thousand
households:head between ages of 30 and
54;thousand
households:head over 54;thousand
total Alaska civilian non-Native households;
thousand
total Alaska military households;thousand
total Alaska civilian Native households;
thousand
household formation rate for civilian non-Native
popUlation in cohort ij
average Alaska household size.all households
average Alaska civilian non-Native household size
average Alaska Native household size
total Alaska households headed by persons in
cohort ij;thousand
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
Constructed from ADA,Annual
Financial Report and AOR
unpublished data
BOC,Census of Population
Bac.Census of Population
Bac.Census of Population
BOC,census of Population
Bac.census of Population
Bac,census of Population
Bac,census of Population
Bac.census of PopUlation
Bac.1980 census of Population.
census Tape STF2
Bac.Census of Population
I
I
j
I
I
I
.~
I
II
l
1
I
.]
I
-)
]
]
l~
INDEX.01
INDEX.S1
INDEX.S2
INDEX.WG
LF
LFPART
LPTB
(i
I JI
LPTBFV
[IJ
LPTBP9
Definition;Units
the summation over time of the annual increments
to IM.REV;million $
the sum of the general fund,'Permanent Fund,and
IMBAL;mi 11 ion $
"ilq)act balance"per capita;$
real "iq>act balance";million 1967 u.s.$
annual revenues contributed to IMBAl,including
interest;million $
real per capita "ilq)act balance";1967 u.s.$
the difference between actual state expenditures
in an iq>act analysis case and what they would
have been if expenditures in real per capita terms
had been kept equivalent to the base case;million $
ratio of Alaskan to u.s.per capita real disposable
personal income
ratio of trade/service/finance eq>loyment to Alaska
real disposable personal income
ratio of transportation/communications/utilities
employment to Alaska real disposable personal income
ratio of Alaskan to u.s.real average wage
labor force;thousand
labor force participation rate as a percent
of potential labor force (civilian popUlation
15 through 64);percent
total value of real property falling within local
government jurisdiction;million $
total assessed value of real,personal,and
petroleum property falling within local government
jurisdiction;million $
taxable petroleum property falling within local
government jurisdiction;million $
F-21
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
ADCR,Alaska Taxable
_.~MUP-CT_~__A1 aSka-mi-l-i-tar-y-populaM on as-a ..fraetion-of-----~---~-.-.-.---~.--;;;------..
1980 level
NAPik Native popUlation in aggregated cohorts k (for
use with income distribution model);thousand
Variable
LPTB1
LPTB1FV
LPTRAT
MDPij
MDTOT
MHHij
MIG IN
MIGOUT
MURAT
MUij
------"'rr
NATINC
NATPij
NAHOT
NBTHTOT
Definition;Units
assessed value of real and personal property
(A.S.29.53)(not full value);million $
assessed value of real and personal property
assessed at full value;million $
percentage of pipeline property within local
jurisdictions actually subject to local tax
because of limitations imposed by state statutes;
percent
military dependents in cohort ij;thousand
total military dependents in 1980;thousand
military households headed by individual in
cohort ij;thousand
endogenous civilian migration to Alaska;
thousand
exogenous civilian migration to Alaska;
thousand
the ratio of military employment (EMGH)to
military population (POPM)
armed forces personnel and military dependents
in cohort ij in 1980;thousand
Alaska civilian non-Native (SIC)natural increase
Alaska Native population in cClhClrt.ui thQlJ~arl([
total Alaska Native population (civilian);thousand
total Alaska Native births;thousand
Institute of social and
Economic Research
MAP Documentation
Hay 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
ADCR,Alaska Taxable
ADCR,Alaska Taxable
Constructed from ADCR,
Alaska Taxable
BOC,1980 census of Population
BOC,1980 census of PopUlation
BOC,1980 census of Population
BOC,1980 census of Population
BOt,J980Census of PopUlation
BOC,1980 census of PopUlation
j
]
j
]
]
1
,I
]
j,
J
-]
'1
1
Variable Definitionj Units
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
NCBP bonus income to Natives fram lease sales on
Native lands;million $
NCBR Alaska crude Native birth rate (per thousand)
NCCAP accumulated capital of Native Corporations;
million $
NCCI Native Corporation income fram ANCSA-re1ated
activities;million $
NCDR Alaska crude Native death rate
NCEXP current expenditures of Native Corporations;
mi 11 ion $
NCPI Native personal income from ANCSA-re1ated
activities;million $
NCRP Native recurrent income from petro1elJll development
on Native lands;million $
NCWS wages and salaries paid by Native Corporations;
mi 11 ion $
NCij
NDTHINF
NOTHTOT
NEMabN
NFERTj
NHHRij
NHHij
NMij
NNATINC
Alaska Native population in cohort ij before
migration;thousand
Alaska Native infant deaths;thousand
total Alaska Native deaths;thousand
Native employment in sector ab;thousand
Native fertility in female cohort j
household formation rate for civilian Native
population in cohort ij;percent
Alaska households headed by civilian Native
persons in cohort ij;thousand
migration rate (positive for in;negative for out)
for Native population in cohort ij;percent
Alaska Native natural increase;thousand
F-23 '
BOC,Census of Population
Alaska Department of Health
and Social Services and Alaska
Native Medical center
BOC,census of Population,
census Tape STF2
BOC,Census of Population,
census Tape STF2
Variable
NNPik
NONPET
NONRP9S
Definition;Units
non-Native population in aggregated cohorts k
for use with income distribution model;
thousand
general fund plus Permanent Fund revenues net
of petroleum revenues and fund earnings -
"non-encJm..ment"revenues;million $
general fund plus Permanent Fund revenues net
of petroleum revenues;million $
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
j
j,
~]
1
1
)
NPGQij fraction of civilian Native population in
cohort ij in group quarters
BOC.1980 census of Population
OEMij exogenous civilian non-Native migration rate Anchorage Urban Observatory
(positive for in;negative for out)for __.~!l~OC •.1989 census.QL..._.·_--··population in-cohortiJ-----.·~-·~·--···-Population
NWSabN Native wages and salaries in sector ab;million $
NTP period over which Native household formation
rates trend;years
Alaska Department of Health
and Social Services
Alaska Department of Health
and Social Services
Alaska Department of Health
...and·Social-Services .-~~...
Native sex division at birth
Native infant survival rates
Native survival rate for cohort.ij
NSEXDIV
NRCij targeted total change in Native household formation
rate for cohort ij
NSURINFi
NSij
P.BAL99 combined fund balance per capita;$
P.DPINN non-Native disposable personal income per capita;$
P.BALGF general fund balance per capita;$
P.BALPF Permanent Fund balance per capita;$
]
J
.,)
'I
1
I.
Native disposable personal income (SIC)per capita
net of nontaxable ANCSA payment;$
per capita EL99;$
P.DPINNl
P.EL99
II(J
Variable
P.ELED
P.ELNEDl
P.EX99S
P.EXBM
P.EXCAP
P.EXONTR
P.EXOPS
P.GEXP
P.GODT
P.NPET
P.NRP9S
P.PI
P.PIN
P.PINCL
P.PINN
P.R99S
P.RLT99
P.RSEN
P.RSIN
P.RSIP
P.RT99
P.RTIS
Definition;Units
per capita ELED;$
per capita ELNED1;$
per capita EX99S;$
per capita unrestricted general fund expenditures
(EXGFBM);$
per capita state capital expenditures;$
per capita state operating expenditures
net of local government transfers;$
per capita state operating expenditures;$
per capita state plus local government
expenditures;$
per capi ta state government bonded indebtedness;$
per capita state "non-endownent"revenues;$
per capita state nonpetroleum revenues;$
per capita personal income;$
per capita Native personal income;$
per capita Native claims personal income;$'
per capita non-Native personal income;$
per capita state general plus Pennanent Fund
revenues;$
per capita state-local revenue transfers;$
per capita state endogenous revenues;$
per capita general and Pennanent Fund earnings;$
per capita interest on the Pennanent Fund;$
per capita total state taxes;$
per capita state personal income tax revenues;$
F-25
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
MAP Documentation
Hay 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
PC12RN proportion of members of.12 regional Native..J~ob_er..LNathanAssociates,-.----..---
-----------------corporatfons-'residi ngin AlaSka-;-percent---2(c)Report:Federal Programs
Pl-P6 variables to facilitate printing population
distribution model results;
Variable
pgPTPER
PAD 1
PAD2
PADJ
PARLVFV
PARNONGF
PBLTBL
PBTRATE
PC12N
PC13C
PC39A
PC39B
Definition;Units
percentage of petroletm property which is
taxable by state which falls within local
taxing jurisdiction;percentage
proportion of population aged 5 to 19 attendi,ng
district schools;percent
proportion of population aged 5 to 19 attending
REAA schools;percent
ratio of premitm (WRI19P)to average wage
(WRI191)in manUfacturing sector
ratio of local estimate to full value of local
property according to state appraiser;percent
proportion of University of Alaska revenues not
from the general fund;percent
proportion of gross business receipts taxable
after 1978 tax law change;percent
state business license tax rate per business;
million dollars per business
prOPOrtion of ANCSA payments made to 12 regional
Native corporations in Alaska;percent
exogenous adjustment to force consistency
between local government personnel expendi-
tures and wages and salaries
mi scell aneousempl oyment withi nagricul ture;.;;
forestry-fisheriesil'ldustrial category;tl1ousand
forestry employment within agriculture-forestry-
fisheries as proportion of manufacturing employment
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
HAP Documentation
May 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
ADCR.Alaska Taxable
ADR.Revenues Sources
Robert Nathan Associates,
2(c)Report:Federal Programs
and Alaska Natives
and Alaska Natives
DOL,Statistical QuarterlY,
Alaska Economic Trends,and
BOC,Governmental Finances
D()L,Statistical Quarterly.
DOL,Statistical Quarterly
J
J
J
-J
'j
]
I
l
--}
I
J
I
I
1
J
.J
I
I
1
I
)
Variable
PCINDA
PCIVPY
PCNCl
PCNC2
PCNC3
PCNC4
PCNCSV
PCNCSVl
PCNCWS
PCOLART
Pews 1
PCYNAl
PDCON
Definition;Units
proportion of gap between a"erage industry
employment share and Native industry employment
share that is closed within one time period
ratio of military to federal civilian wage rate;
percent
proportion of ANCSA payments paid directly to
individuals;percent
proportion of recurring incane fran Petroleum
development on Native lands paid directly to
individuals;percent
proportion of earnings on Native
Corporation accumulated capital paid
directly to individuals;percent
proportion of bonus incane fran lease sales 9n
Native lands paid directly to individuals;percent
proportion of Native Corporation incane used for
investment;percent
proportion of bonus incane from lease sales on
Native lands and retained by Native Corporations
which is used for investment;percent
proportion of current expenditures of Native
Corporations paid in wages and salaries;percent
the cost of living differential for federal
employees;percentage
ratio of state government wage and salary payments
to personnel expenditures;percent
proportion by which the ratio of personal income to
wages and salaries for Native exceeds that of the
total popUlation;percent
state government construction price deflator;index
F-27
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
HAP Documentation
Hay 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
ADL,Statistical QuarterlY
and ADA,Executive BUdget
for construction methodology,see
Kresge and Thomas "Estimating
Alaska Gross Product by Industry,"
Alaska Review of Business and
Economic Conditions,Vol.XI,No.1
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
MAP Documentation
Hay 1983
Variable Definition;Units Hi stori ca 1 Data Sourcea .
PDEXOPS state government operating expenditures price
deflator;index
constructed from ADL,Statistical
Quarterly,BEA personal income
and emplo~nt data
PDRATIO ratio of Alaskan relative price index to u.s.
consumer price index
POOP I Alaskan relative price index--1967 value is
1.425 times u.s.CPI which in 1967 was 100;
index
constructed from u.s.Department
of Labor,Bureau of Labor
Statistics and University of
Alaska,Agriculture Extension
Service,Quarterly Food Price
Survey of 13 Alaskan cities
PDRPIBAS 1982 Alaskan price level using 1967 us as
base;index
PDUSCPI u.s.consumer price index (1967=100);index u.s.Departrnel'ltof Labor,Bureau
of Labor Statistics
PDUSCPIl initial value for US consumer price index;index
PECIG proportion of cigarette tax receipts paid to
special fund
PERNAl proportion of change in state emplo~nt rate
reflected in change in Native emplo~ntrate;percent
PERNA2 proportion of gap between Native and state
emplo~nt rates that is closed in one year;perce!'t
PFN Native females 14 and under;thousand
PFISHl percentage of fish harv.esting emplo~nt
.··_···-reported as proprietors
DOL.Statistical Quarterly;
BEA~l oymentdata;and
G.Rogers,Measuring the
Socioeconomic Impact of
Alaska's Fisheries
non-Native females 14 and under;thousand
proportion of state corporate income tax shared with
local government;percent
PESLTC
PF
i
I.i'
Variable
PI
PI.OPI
PLEL99
PLEX99S
PLEXL
PLEXS
PLEXT
PLGOOT
PLRL99
PLRLPT
PLRSEN
PI.TXL
PI.TXS
PI.WS98
PI3
PI8
PIOIR
Definition;Units
personal income;million $
ratio of disposable personal income to total
personal income
ratio of local government expenditures to
personal income
ratio of total state government expenditures
to personal income
ratio of local government expenditures net of
debt service to personal income
ratio of state government general fund expenditures
(EXGF)to personal income
ratio of state and local government expenditures
to personal income
ratio of state general obligation bonded debt
to personal income
ratio of local government revenues to personal
income
ratio of local property taxes to personal
income
ratio of endogenous state revenues to personal income
ratio of locally generated local government taxes
to personal income
ratio of state taxes net of petroleum-related taxes
to personal income
ratio of wage and salary plus military
salary income to personal income
personal income net of "enclave"construction
employee personal income;million $
personal income plus residence adjustment;
mi 11 ion $
dividends,interest,and rent component of
income;million $
F-29
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
HAP Documentation
Hay 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
BEA personal income data
BEA personal income
Var1able
PIDIST
PIl
PIN
PINl
PINN
PIal 1
PIPADJ
Def1n1t1on;units
model switch which results 1n retrieval of Native
eq>loyment and wages and salaries fran incane
d1str1bution model 1f a value of one is chosen;
units
the value of personal i ncane 1agged one year
for use 1n 1ncane d1str1but1on model
Nat1ve personal 1ncane.1nclud1ng Native cla1ms
incane to individuals;million $
Native personal incane net of Native claims
incane to 1ndividuals.m1llion $
non-Native personal 1ncane;million $
other labor incane caJq:lOnent of personal incane;
mi 11 ion $
ratio of "enclave"to regular construction wage
rate;percent
Institute of Social
Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
BEA.personal 1ncane data
ADl Statistical Quarterly
and
PIPE a proxy variable which takes a value of one
in years of very substantial exogenous
----""-----"--constructfOil-aclivTty
PIPRO
PIPROl
PIRADJ
PISSC
PITRAN
PITRANl
PIU.PIA
proprietors incane component of personal incane;
mill ion $
nonfishery proprietor incane caJq:lOnent of personal
incane;million $
residence adjustment component of personal incane;,
mi 11 ion $
personal contributions to Social Security component
of personal incane;million $
transfers component of personal i nCane;lJIi 1lion $
transfers (excluding Permanent Fund dividend
payments)component of personal incane;million $
ratio of non-Native disposable personal 1ncane per
capita in Alaska to disposable personal incane per
capita in the u.S.
BEA.personal 1ncane data
BEA.personal incane data
BEA.personal incane data
BEA.personal incane data
BEA;personal income data
j
"1
r "
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Variable Definition;Units Historical Data Sourcea
PlFD9 total Alaska po~entia1 civilian labor force
aged 15 to 64;thousand
PlFOOf1C Alaska potential civilian non-Native.non-
military dependent labor force (population
aged 15 to 64);thousand
PlFDOMH Alaska potential military labor force (military
1I dependents aged 15 to 64;active-duty military
are excluded);thousand
PlFOOl1N Alaska potential civilian Native labor force
aged 15 to 64;thousand
PM non-Native males 14 and under used ~jth
income distribution model;thousand
PMN Native males 14 and under used with
~ncome distribution model;thousand
PNTGR amount of gross receipts exempt from state
gross receipts tax;million $
POP total population;thousand BOC and ADl
POP.AD ratio of Alaska population aged 15 to 64 to
total population
POP.CIV ratio of Alaska civilian non-Native population
to total population
POP.GER ratio of Alaska population aged 65 and over to
total population
POP.KID ratio of Alaska population under 15 to total
population
POP.MIL ratio of Alaska military and military dependents
to total population
POP.NAT ratio of Alaska Native population to total
population
POPADS total Alaska population aged 15 to 64;thousand
J POPC total population net of armed forces personnel BOC and ADl
(includes military dependents);thousand
F-31 '
Variable
POPCGQ
POPGER
POPGQ
POPKIDS
POPI1
POPMGQ
POPI1IG
Definition;Units
Alaska civilian non-Native population in group
quarters;thousand
total Alaska population aged 65 and over;thousand
total Alaska population in group quarters;thousand
total Alaska population under 15;thousand
armed forces personnel;thousand
military population in group quarters;thousand
total net civilian migration to Alaska;thousand
Institute of Social
Economic Research
HAP Documentation
l1ay 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
BOC,Census of Population
BOC,census of Population
BOC.Census of Population
BOC,census of PopUlation
BOC.Census of Population
BOC,census of PopUlation
and
POPNE
POPNGQ _
POPNI9
POPij
PPVAL
PR.BALCP
PR.BALGl
PR.BALG2
PR.BALP2
PR.BALPF
Native population based upon Native Corporation
enrollment records;thousand
Alaska Native population in group quarters;thousand
total Alaska civilian natural increase;thousand
total Alaska population in cohort ij;thousand
total full assessed value of real.personal,
and petroleum-related property in the state;
mi 1lion $
value of state capital stock real per capita;
1967 U.S.$
general fund balance real per capita;1967 U.S.$
general fund balance real per capltadeflatedby
state operating budget deflator;1967 (1:5:$...
Permanent Fund balance real per capita deflated
by operating budget deflator;1967 U.S.$
Permanent Fund balance real per capita;1967 U.S.$
2ec)Report-Federal Program &
Alaska Natives by Robert Nathan
Associates,forU.S.Department
of Interior
BOC,Census of Population
Variable
PR.DPI
PR.DPIN
PR.DPINN
PR.DPIUl
PR.DPIUS
PR.ECP
Definition;Units
dispoable personal income real per capita;
1967 U.S.$
Native disposable personal income real per capita;
1967 U.S.$
non-Native disposable income real per capita;
.1967 U.S.$
initial value for US real per capita disposable
personal income;$
U.S.disposable personal income real per capita;
1967 U.S.$
state capital expenditures for highways
from bond funds real per capita (EXCPSHY);
1967 U.S.$
state capital expenditures nonhighway from bond
funds real per capita (EXCPSNH);1967 U.S.$
total local expenditures (EL99)real per capita;
1967 U.S.$
local expenditures for education (ELED)real
per capita;1967 U.S.$
local government capital expenditures for
education (ELEDCP)real per capita;1967 U.S.$
local non-education expenditures (ELNED1)real
per capita;1967 U.S.$
total state expenditures (EX99S)real per capita;
1967 U.S.$
state general fund expenditures (EXBH)real per
capita;1967 U.S.$
state capital expenditures real per capita;
1967 U.S.$
state operating expenditures.net of local government
transfers real per capita;1967 ~.S.$
state operating expenditures real per capita;
1967 U.S.$
F-33
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
HAP Documentation
Hay 1983
Historical Data Sourcea '
U.S.Department of Conmerce
-----~---_._--~-~._--~--.-._•..__._._..~---_.•._-~-~-""""'-"""""'--"--_.._.-
PR.PI personal income real per capita;1967 U.S.$
------PR~PINCl-----Native-persona1-income-real-per-capi ta-pl us rea1-
--~~~~~~~-Gurrent-expendi~ures-of-Nat~ve-COrpora~ions-per
capita;1967 U.S.$
andInstituteofSocial
Economic Research
MAP Documentation
Hay 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
\
,.~
'I
\
I
1
!
j
\
I
I
\
.--,-----------.----.----,.------.---------.--------..-----'..l
'\
OJ
t
.1
J.
r
Definition;units
non-Native personal income real per capita;
1967 U.S.$
Native personal income real per capita;1967 U.S.$
real current'expenditures of Native Corporations
per Native;1967 U.S.$
state and local government expenditures real
per capita;1967 U.S.$
personal income net of "enclave"construction
employee personal income (PI3)real per capita;
1967 U.S.$
total state revenues (R99S)real per capita;
1967 u.s.$
state expenditures in program category ccc
real per capita;1967 $
state government bonded indebtedness real per
capita;1967 U.S.$
state "non-endownent"revenues real per capita;
1967 U.S.$
state nonpetro1eum revenues real per capita;
1967 U.S.$
state endogenous revenues (RSEN)real per capita;
1967 U.S.$
state-local revenue transfers real per capita;
1967 U.S.$
state general fund highway capital expenditures
(EXGFCHY)real per capita;1967 u.S.$
state general fund nonhighway capital expenditures
(EXGFCNH)real per capita;1967 u.S.$
Variable
PR.EXccc
PR.GEXP
PR.GFC
PR.GODT
PR.NRP9
PR.GFCN
PR.NPET
PR.PI3
PR.NCEXP
PR.PIN
PR.PINN
PR.R99S
PR.RLT99
PR.RSEN
Variable
PR.RSIN
PR.RSIP
PR.RT99
PR.RTIS
PRINT
PRINT2
PTBP9
j
PTOURB
1
PTOURD
J
PTOURE
PTOURS
PTOURT
PTRTS
PWRBASE
I R.BAlCAP
_J
R.DPI
R.DPI8N
Definition;Units
general and Permanent Fund earnings real per
capita;1967 U.s.$
Permanent Fund earnings real per capita;
1967 U.s.$
state tax revenues (RT99)real per capita;
1967 U.s.$
state personal income tax receipts real per
capita;1967 U.s.$
variable from income distribution model which allows
results to be printed if value of one is chosen
variable from income distribution model which allows
results to be printed if value of one is chosen
total value of taxable petroleum property;
mill ion $
intercept term on tourist industry
employment equation
proportion of tourist industry employment
in trade
elasticity of tourism employment to growth
in number of tourists
proportion of tourist industry employment
in services
proportion of tourist industry employment in
transportation
tax rate on state petroleum-related property;
percent
average U.s.wages paid in government in 1967;$
real value of state capital stock;million
1967 U.s.$
real disposable personal income;million 1967 U.s.$
real disposable personal income plus residence
adjustment;million 1967 U.S.$
F-35
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
HAP Documentation
Hay 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
AOCR.Alaska Taxable
Improvements to Specification
of the MAP Model
Improvements to Specification
of the MAP Model
Improvements to Specification
of the MAP Model
Improvements to Specification
of the MAP Model
Improvements to Specification
of the MAP Model
constructed using ADA.Annual
Financial Report
----"---RCij--,-,,,----targeted-total-change-in--civil,i an,,househol d
andInstituteofSocial
Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
ADA.Annual Financial Report
Historical Data Sourcea
constructed using ADL.
Statistical Quarterly
~\
.\
'I
\
\
I
j
.\
\
l
I
\
",-"----,..-,--..,--",,---,,-,-,,,----_........_,-""-....-,..,--....",,,..'-'-,'I'
Definition;Units
non-Native real personal income;million 1967 U.S.$
Native real personal income;million 1967 U.S.$
total state revenues net of federal grants-in-aid;
mi 11 ion $
ratio of non-Native income to total taxable income;
percent
total general fund and Permanent Fund revenues;
million $
variable used to make individual state budget items
consistent with total operating budget constraint;
percent
total state revenues net of Permanent Fund
contributions (EXPFCON);million $
average annual real wage rate including military;
1967 U.S.$
real personal income;million 1967 U.S.$
average annual real wage rate for civilian eI11'loyment;
1967 U.S.$
real disposable personal income plus residence
adjustment of "enclave"construction eI11'loyees;
million 1967 U.S.$
RATIO 1
RAn
R99SON
R99SNT
R.WR98
Variable
R99S
R.DPI8X
R.WR97
R.PI
R.PIN
R.PINN
RL99 total local government revenues;million $constructed from BOC Govern-
mental Finances and BOG State
Government Finances
RL99.PT ratio of,local property taxes t~tO,tal local
government revenues
RL99.RT ratio of state-local transfers to state-local
government revenues
RL991 total local government revenues net of miscellaneous
revenues;million $I
I
Variable
RLMC
RLOT
RLPT
RLPTl
RLPTX
RLT99
RLTCS
RLTCS4
RLTE99
RLTE994
RLTEA
RLTEA4
RLTEB
RLTEB4
RLTEC
Definition;Units
local charges and miscellaneous revenue;
mill ion $
local government taxes net of property tax;
million $
local property taxes;million $
local property tax revenues net of exogenous
component;million $
exogenous local property tax;million $
total revenue transfers from state to local
government;million $
state-local shared corporate income tax after
1978 tax law change;million $
initial estimate of state-local shared corporate
income tax before application of RATI01;
mi 11 ion $
total state-local government transfers for
education purposes;million $
initial estimate of transfers from state to local
government for education purposes before application
of RATI01;million $
total transfers from state to local government for
primary and secondary education;million $
initial estimate of transfers from state to local
government for primary and secondary education before
application of RATI01;million $
state aid to local education net of aid to district
schools and since their inception,the REAA schools;
mi 11 ion $
initial estimate of state aid to local government
for education net of district and REAA aid before
application of RATIOl
cigarette tax education transfers from state to
local government;million $
F-37
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
HAP Documentation
May 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
BOC,Governmental Finances
BOC,Governmental Finances
BOC,Governmental Finances
BOC,Governmental Finances
ADA,Annual Financial Report
constructed from BOC,State
Governmental Finances and ADA
Annual Financial Report
ADA,Annual Financial Report
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
MAP Documentation
Hay 1983
ADA,Annual Financial Report
ADA,Annual Financial Report
ADA,Annual Financial Report
Historical Data SourceaDefinition;Units
miscellaneous state aids to district schools;
mi 11 ion $
initial estimate of miscellaneous state aids
to district schools before application of RATI01;
million $
initial estimate of school foundation program
transfers from state to local government before
application of RATI01;million $
state aid to local district schools for
transportation;million $
school foundation program transfers from state to
local government;million $
initial estimate of cigarette tax education
transfers from state to local government before
application of RATIOlj million $
RlTET4
Variable
RlTEO
RlTEF
RlTEF4
RlTE04
RlTEC4
.RlTET
initial estimate of state aid to district
schools for transportation before application
of RATIOlj million $
~~----~-~~------------~-----------~-------------------
____RLIMM,inH.iaLestimate_oLstate",locaLt~ansfer.s_undeJ"""--_
mUnicipal assistance program;million $
RLTF
RlTFPX
RlTMA
RlTI1S
RlTOT
RLTOT4
RlTRS
federal-local government transfers;million $
petroleum-related federal-local government transfers;
million $
state local transfers under municipal assistance
program;million $
state-local revenue transfers net of education,
revenue sharing,and tax sharing;million $
-----st:ate···:]ocal t:aXsharing of other taxes (amusement
licenses,aviation fuel tax,liqlJ()l"lic;en~~~,
fisheries tax)j million $
initial estimate of state-local sharing of other
taxes before application of RATI01;million $
state-local revenue sharing;million $
BOC,Governmental Finances
ADA,Executive Budget
constructed from BOC State
Government Finances &ADA
Executive BUdget
ADA,Executive BUdget
.l
\
}
Variable
RlTRS4
RlTT9
RlTT94
RlTVS
RlTVS4
RlTX
RMIS
RHISRES
RN.FED
RN.OIl
RN.RSEN
RN.RSIN
RNAT
RNATX
ROFAS
Definition;Units
initial estimate of state-local revenue
sharing before application of RATI01;million $.
total state-local tax transfers;million $
initial estimate of total state-local tax
transfers;million $
state-local shared electric and telephone
co-op taxes;million $
initial estimate of state-local shared electric
and telephone co-op taxes before application of
RATI01;million $
exogenous state-local transfers;million $
miscellaneous unrestricted general fund revenues;
mi 11ion $
miscellaneous restricted general fund
revenues;million $
ratio of federal transfers to general fund
plus Permanent Fund revenues net of Permanent
Fund contributions (EXPFCON)
ratio of state pe~roleum revenues to general
fund plus Permanent Fund revenues net of
Permanent Fund contributions (EXPFCON)
ratio of endogenous revenues to general
fund plus Permanent Fund revenues net of
Permanent Fund contributions (EXPFCON)
ratio of general and Permanent Fund earnings to
state general fund plus Permanent Fund revenues
net of Permanent Fund contributions (EXPFCON)
Native personal income as percentage of total
personal income calculated using the income
distribution model
Native personal income as percentage of total
personal income calculated using the income
distribution model
state auto licenses and fees;million $
F-39
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
MAP Documentation
Hay 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
ADA,Executive Budget
ADR,Revenue Sources
ADA,Annual Financial Report
Variable
ROFERS
ROFOS
ROFTS
ROR
RORANGRO
RORCPDEP
RORCRF
RORDISK
Definition;Units
general fund ferry receipts;million $
nonauto-related business and nonbusiness licenses
and fees to general fund;million $
total general fund fees and licenses;..mi11ion $
real rate of return on general fund balance;
percent
under EXRLOPB,rate at which state operating
expenditure annuity grows;percent
real rate of depreciation of state-owned capital;
percent
capital recovery factor for calculating annual
servicing of bonded debt;percent
discount rate applied to future petroleum
revenues to calculate present value in 1982
dollars (DF.RSVP)
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
HAP Documentation
May 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
ADA,Annual Financial Report
constructed from ADA,Annual
Financial Report
ADA,Annual Financ.ial Report
I1
..~
RORNC nominal rate of return on accumulated capital
_._~~-----_._----'~-'--~--of-Na-tlve---Corp-ora-t'i-ons';----percent---------------~-----~
_..__R~IS...totaJ_p-eJl"ole-umJ:oyjiHJes-anJ.tb_Cln!J_s~S;.J!Ii 1tLO!L$..J\.PB Revenue Sources ..__.
RORPDF
RORPPF
RP9S
RP9SGF
RP9X
RPBS
RPBSGF
real rate of return premium applied to development
fund over general fund;percent
real rate of return premium applied to Permanent
Fund in excess of general fund;percent
total petroleum revenues before Permanent Fund
deductions;million $
total petroleum revenues paid to general fund;
mi 11 ion $
mi setH 1ailE!tlUs exogenous petroleum revenues;
million $
state petroleum bonuses before Permanent Fund
deduction;million $
state petroleum bonuses paid to general fund;
million $
ADR,Revenue Sources
ADR,Revenue Sources
ADR,Revenue Sources
ADR,Revenue Sources
-"-----_.-~
\
\
j
J
I
l
I
Variable
RPPS
RPRY
RPRYGF
RPTS
RS.FED
RS.OWN
RS.PET
RS.REC
RS.RN
RS.RP9S
RS.RSEN
RS.RSIN
RSBM.B99
RSBM.EXD
RSBM.GF
Ij
,___I
RSBM.PET
U
Definition;Units
state petroleum property tax;million $
state petroleum royalties before Permanent Fund
deduction;million $
state petroleum royalties paid to general fund;
mi 11 ion $
state petroleum production taxes;million $
ratio of federal transfers to total state
revenues
ratio of revenues net of federal transfers to
total state revenues
ratio of "endownent"type revenues to total
state revenues
ratio of endogenous and interest revenues to
total state revenues
ratio of state general fund revenues net of
permanent fund contributions (EXPFCON)to total
state revenues
ratio of petroleum revenues to total state
revenues
ratio of endogenous revenues to total state
revenues
ratio of general and Permanent Fund earnings
to total state revenues
ratio of fund earnings (RSIG+RSID+RSIPGF)to
unrestricted general fund revenues
ratio of debt service expenditures (EXDSS)to
unrestricted general fund revenues
ratio of general fund earnings (RSIG)to
unrestricted general fund revenues
ratio of endownent revenues (RP9SGF+RSIG+RSIO+RSIPGF)
to unrestricted general fund revenues
F-41
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
ADR,Revenue Sources
ADA,Revenue Sources
ADR,Revenue Sources
AOR,Revenue Sources
___.........:Rc:..:S:..:..F..::.S:..:..l ......:.::m.;..:is;;..:c:.;:e:..:..l.;..:la::.:.n:.;:e..::.ou.:;:.:s::......c.r..::.e..::.ce=.c.i I2ts of sta te sl2""ec"-'i'-"'a......l:..:..r'-'e"...,v""e!..!:nu".,e"--A..."D""-'.A,Annua L Fi nand aJ Rep.ort
funds;million $
-_._..-·_··RSFDNX··...._....··-~x0"genous fed~ral...:sl:al:etratls·fel"paymetlts ~
mi 11 ion $
Variable
RSBM.PF
RSBM.REN
RSBM.RP9
RSEN
RSENGF
RSFDN
RSFDNPX
RSFDNPXG
RSFFS
RSFS
RSGF
RSGFBM
RSGFGAP
RSGFRS
RSIAS
Definition;Units
ratio of Permanent Fund earnings transferred to
general fund (RSIPGF)to unrestricted general
fund revenues
ratio of endogenous general fund revenues (RSENGF)
to unrestricted general fund revenues
ratio of petroleum revenues (RP9SGF)to
unrestricted general fund revenues
state endogenous revenues;'million $
endogenous state unrestricted general fund
revenues;million $
total federal grants-in-aid to state general
fund;mi 11 ion $
federal-state shared petroleum royalties;
mi 11 ion $
general fund portion of federal-state shared
petroleum royalties;million $
fees and licenses receipts paid into the fish
and game special revenue fund;million $
total revenues of the special funds except the
Permanent Fund;million $
total state general fund revenues (unrestricted
and restricted);million $
total general fund unrestricted revenues;million $
the difference between the statutory spendi
limit and availablefundsj million $
restricted state general fund revenues;million $
international airport receipts (enterprise fund);
mi 11 ion $
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
ADA,Annual Financial Report
ADR,Revenue Sources
ADR,Revenue Sources
ADA,Annual Financial Report
ADA,Annual Financial Report
ADA,Annual Financial Report
ADR,Revenue Sources
ADA,Annual Financial Report
\
\
l
l
,··1
J
l
../
variable
RSID
RSIDNET
RSIG
RSIGNET
RSIN
,i
RSINNET
RSIP
RSIPGF
Il RSIPNET
RT99
RTAS
RTBS
RTBSl
RTBS2
RTCIS
RTCS
.Definition;Units
state development fund earnings;million $
state development fund earnings net of inflation;
million $
state general .fund interest;million $
state general fund interest net of inflation;
mi 11 ion $
state general fund interest plus Permanent Fund
interest;million $
state general fund interest plus Permanent Fund
interest net of inflation;million $
state Permanent Fund interest;million $
state Permanent Fund interest transferred into
general fund;million $
state Permanent Fund interest net of inflation;
mi 11 ion $
total state tax revenues;million $
alcoholic beverage tax;million $
gross receipts tax and business license tax;
million $
portion of gross receipts tax revenues derived from
business licenses;million $
portion of gross receipts tax revenues derived/from
gross receipts in excess of exempted amount per
business;million $
cigarette tax receipts (sum of general fund and
tobacco fund receipts);million $
state corporate tax receipts;million $
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
MAP Documentation
Hay 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
ADR,Revenue Sources
ADR,Revenue Sources
ADA,Annual Financial Report
and ADR,Revenue Sources
ADA,Annual Financial Report
constructed from ADR unpublished
data
constructed from ADA,Annual
Financial Report and ADl,
unpublished data
ADA,Annual Financial Report
and ADR,Revenue Sources
ADA,Annual Financial Report
and ADR,Revenue Sources
RTCSl corporate income tax net of petroleum sector;
mi 11 ion $
F-43
Variable
RTCSPX
Definition;Units
state corporate tax receipts from petroleum sector;
mi 11 ion $
I
Institute of Social and -)
Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
ADR,Revenue Sources
RTCSX exogenous corporate income tax;million $
___~__~~RIISLOS __~~diff.er::enc.e_p~er..~t.axp-ay.e_r..J:teJw_e~~RJ~~r5~Q!'!~J1RCJJ!!e_
tax liability before and after structural changes
introduced by modeler;million $
RTIS
RTISC
RTISCA
RTISCAl
RTISCA2
RTISCP
RTISXX
personal income tax;million $
personal income tax on a calendar year basis;
million $
personal income tax liability per taxpayer
on a calendar year basis;thousand $
initial estimate of personal income tax liability
per taxpayer on a calendar year basis;thousand $
initial estimate of personal income tax liability
per taxpayer on a calendar year basis without tax
structure changes introduced by modeler;thousand $
calendar-year state income taxes paid out of
Alaskan resident personal income;million $
adjustment of disposable income to cover lag in
refund in state personal income taxes after
repeal;million $
ADA,Annual Financial Report
ADR,Cumulative Summary of
Revenue,a monthly report
-j
ADR,unpublished data
l
l
l
RTMF highway,aviation,and marine fuel taxes;ADA,Annual Financial Report
-~~~------~~--------milTi orl$---~---~-~---~----~~----..._._~----~--~---ana--ADR~--ReveiiiJe--SClt:rrces-
RTOTS
RTPIF
RTSS
RTVS
other state taxes--consists of fiduciary,
inheritance,estate,mining,conservation,
prepaid,and fish taxes;million $
federal income taxes paid out of Alaskan
resident personal income;million $
-school tax;rrii 11 ion $
ad valorem taxes consisting of insurance premium
tax and electric telephone company revenue tax;
million $
ADR,Revenue Sources
BEA -disposable personal
income data _
MA,-Annual Financial Report
ADA,Annual Financial RepOrt
and ADR,Revenue Sources
"-II
\
l
I
Variable
SANCSA
SEXDIV
SLGEXP
SURINFi
/1 Sij,1
TCRED
THG
TOURIST
TP
TPTV
TXBASE
TXCRPC
TXPTXX
Definition;Units
payments to Alaska Natives by state government
under ANCSA;million $
non-Native sex division at birth;percent
total combined state and local government
expenditures;million $
non-Native infant survival rates;percent
non-Native survival rate for cohort ij
individual tax credit beginning after 12/31/77;$
total gallons of highway gasoline sold in the
state (does not include off-highway gallon sales);
mi 11 ion gallons
number of tourist visitors to Alaska;thousands
period over which civilian household formation
rates trend;years
total highway motor vehicles operating in the state
(passenger and truck);thousand
change in the floor of personal income tax rate
schedule;units
state personal income tax credit adjustment
(percentage of tax liability);
adjustment to withold from state expenditures
a portion of any personal income tax reduction;
percent
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
HAP Documentation
Hay 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
Alaska Department of Health
and Social Services
Alaska Department of Health
and Social Services
Alaska Department of Health
and Social Services
ADR,monthly motor vehicle
tax forms
Alaska Department of Health
and Social Services
Department of PUblic Safety,
Motor Vehicle Division
u TXRT
U.AK.US
UNEMP
percentage change in state personal income tax rate;
percentage
ratio of unemployment rates in Alaska and the U.S.
average
average annual Alaska unemployment;thousand
F-45
ADL
I
Institute of Social and }
Economic Research
MAP Documentation I
May 1983 .f
Variable Definition;Units Historical Data Sourcea
UUS US unemployment rate;percent U.S.Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
VAEX value of a personal exemption on personal
income tax;$
IRS,Statistics of Income
VAEXl initial value for personal exemption;$
WEALTH four-year average of real per capita income;
1967 u.S.$
WEUS average weekly wage &salary earnings in U.S.;$u.S.Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
WEUSl initial value for average weekly wage and salary
earnings in United States;$
WR.AK.US ratio of Alaska to U.S.civilian wage rate
average annual wage rate for nonagricultural wage
and salary employment;$
WR97
WR98 average annual wage rate for nonagricultural wage
and salary employment plus military;$
---..--_._---------_.~.._._.._------__-------_.__~-_.___._-__--------------.--__-_.•.__.._._._--_-
WRCNNP average annual wage rate for non-"enclave"
construction wage rate;$
ADL,Statistical Quarterly
WRCNP average annual wage rate for premium wage (pipeline
or "enclave")construction;$
ADL,Statistical Quarterly
WRCU average annual wage rate for communications and
-----··--·---_·-----------publ-ie-u t-i-l-i-t-ies-;--$----....---....---------------
ADl,Statistical Quarterly
WRGC average annual wage rate for federal civilian;$ADL,Statistical Quarterly
WRGMS annual growth in income per proprietor (input
to income distribution model)
WRGab
WRM91
WRM9P
annual growth in real annual wage rate in
industry ab (input to income distribution model)
average annual wage rate for existing (low wage)
manufacturing employment;$
average annual wage rate for large-project
(high wage)manufacturing employment;$
ADL,Statistical Quarterly
l
.-I
I
r 1II
r "I !\I
Variable
WRSB
WRSNB
WRab
WS97
WS98
WS98l
WSCNP
WSGC
WSGl
WSGM
WSGS
WSGSFY
WSM9P
WSNA
WSS91
WSab
Definitionj Units
average annual wage rate for business services;$
average annual wage rate for nonbusiness services;$
average annual wage rate for industry sector ab;$
total wage and salary payments in nonagricultural
wage and salary industries;million $
total wage and salary payments in nonagricultural
wage and salary industries plus military;million $
wages and salaries lagged one year (input to income
distribution model);million $
wages and salary payments in high wage ("enclave")
construction;million $
federal civilian wages and salaries;million $
local government wages and salaries;million $
military personnel wages and salaries;million $
state government wages and salaries;million $
state government wages and salaries on fiscal year
basis;million $
wages and salaries paid in high wage exogenous
large-project manufacturing;million $
wages and salaries paid to Natives;million $
wages and salaries in services net of Native
Corporation-related wages;million $
wages and salaries paid in industry ab;ab=CN GA
A9 eM DR ow 09 FI GF M9 PU P9 S9 T9;million $
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
ADl,Statistical Quarterly
AOl,Statistical Quarterly
AOl,Statistical QuarterlY
AOl,Statistical Quarterly
AOl,Statistical Quarterly
BEA,personal income data
AOl,Stati sti ca 1 QuarterlY
AOl,Stati stica1 Quarterly
AOl,Statistical QuarterlY
Xl-X6 variables used to facilitate printing of output
of the income distribution model
XX98 total real gross state product in wage and salary
industries and military;million 1972 U.S.$
F-47
Variable
XXA9
Definition;units
agricu1ture-forestry-fisheries real gross state
product;million 1972 u.s.$
Institute of Social and
Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
for construction methodology,see
Kresge and Thomas,"Estimating
Alaska Gross Product by Industry,"
Alaska Review of Business and
Economic Conditions,Vol.XI,
No.1
XXCN1 endogenous (residentiary plus state government)
component of construction real gross state
product:million 1972 U.S.$
XXCN8
XXDRNT
XXH9
XXM91
XXMX2
XXS8NT
residentiary construction real gross state product;
million 1972 U.S.$
state retail trade net of tourism real gross
state product;million 1972 $
manufacturing real gross state product;
million 1972 u.S.$
manufacturing net of large projects real gross
state product net of large projects;million
1972 U.S.$
exogenous large-project manufacturing real
gross state product;million 1972 U.S.$
support services (net of business,tourism,
and Native claims)real gross state product;
million 1972 u.S.$
l
l
~
for construction methodologies,
see Kresge and Thomas,"Estimating 1
Alaska Gross Product by Industry,"
Alaska Revtew of Business and ~~__.__
Economic Conditions,Vol.XI,No.1 1
1
\-
----XXSB,----bus-i-ness-ser-v~iees-l"ea-l-gl"oss-state-product-;----------------;-----
million 1972 U.S.$
XXTNT
XXVACAP
XXVHY
transportation (net of tourism and exogenous
components)real gross state product;million
1972 U.S.$
value added in contract construction accounted for
by government (state)purchases frOOllheprivate
contracting industry;million 1972 U.S.$
value added in construction industry from private
contracts for highway construction let by state
government;million $
constructed from ADPW worksheets
l
I
I
?
I
Variable
XXVNHY
,XXab
YR
Definition;Units
value added in construction industry from private
contracts for nonhighway construction let by
state government;million $
real gross state product in industry ab;
ab=A9 CM CN DR OW 09 FI GA GF PU P9 S9 T9;
million 1972 U.s.$
year
F-49
Institute of Soclal and
Economlc Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Historical Data Sourcea
constructed from ADPW worksheets
for construction methodologies,see
Kresge and Thomas,"Estimating
Alaska Gross Product by Industry,"
Alaska Review of Business and
Economic Conditions,Vol.XI,No.1
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
APPENDIX G
MAP ECONOMIC MODEL LISTING
Including
1.Fi scal Module
2.Economic Module
3.Population Module
4.Household Module
5.Native Economic Activity
6.Definitional Equations
7.Links to Income Distribution Model
8.Parameter List
MODEL:A83.2
PURPOSE:This model calculates annual statewide economic,fiscal,and
demographic output based on user-specified input assumptions.
DATE:
SYMBOLS
May 1983
lJ
lJ
ENDOGENOUS:
ADMSD AEX AGI AHG ATD ATI ATI.TT ATT BALCAP84 BALDF BALGF
BALGFCP BALGFP BALPF BAL99 BIU BL CEA9N CECMN CECNN CED9N
CEFIN CEGAN CEGFN CEM9N CEPUN CEP9N CES9N CET9N CNNPFI
CNNPFIO CNNPFll CNNPF12 CNNPF13 CNNPF14 CNNPF15 CNNPF2 CNNPF3
CNNPF4 CNNPF5 CNNPF6 CNNPF7 CNNPF8 CNNPF9 CNNPMl CNNPMIO
CNNPMll CNNPM12 CNNPM13 CNNPM14 CNNPM15 CNNPM2 CNNPM3 CNNPM4
CNNPM5 CNNPM6 CNNPM7 CNNPM8 CNNPM9 COLA DEBTP82 DF.RSVP DPI
DPIRES DPI8 ELBD ELED ELEDCP ELEDl ELNEDl ELPERS EL99
EMAFISH EMA9 EMCM EMCN EMCNRT EMCNX EMCNl EMDR EMDRNT
EMDTOUR EMDW EMD9 EMFI EMGA EMGF EMGL EMGS EMMO.EMM9 EMM91
EMPRO EMPROFIS EMPROI EMPU EMRATE EMRATNl EMSB EMSPEMSTOUR
EMSUP EMS8NT EMS9 EMS91 EMTCU EMTNT EMTOUR EMTTOUR EMT9
EMT91 EMX EM96 EM97 EM98 EM99 EXANSAV EXCAP EXCAPFR EXCDS
EXCDSNT EXCDS4 EXCPS EXCPSFED EXCPSHY EXCPSM EXCPSNH EXDFCON
EXDFWITH EXDSS EXEDS EXEDS4 EXGF EXGFBM EXGFCHY EXGFCNH
EXGGS EXGGS4 EXHES EXHES4 EXINREC EXJUS EXJUS4 EXLIM EXLIMOK
EXNOPS EXNRS EXNRS4 EXOPS EXPFCON EXPPS EXPPS4 EXPRCDS·
EXPREDSl EXPRGGS EXPRHES EXPRJUS EXPRNRS EXPRPPS EXPRSSS
EXPRTRS EXPRUA EXPR99 EXSAVS EXSSS EXSSS4 EXSUBS EXTRNS
EXTRS EXTRS4 EXUA EX99S FAG I FAGII GOBONDL GODT GR GTR
IM.BAL IM.BALRV LPTB LPTBI MIGIN MIGOUT MILPCT NATPFI
NATPFIO NATPFll NATPF12 NATPF13 NATPF14 NATPF15 NATPF2 NATPF3
NATPF4 NATPF5 NATPF6 NATPF7 NATPF8 NATPF9 NATPMl NATPMIO
NATPMll NATPM12 NATPM13 NATPM14 NATPM15 NATPM2 NATPM3 NATPM4
NATPM5 NATPM6 NATPM7 NATPM8 NATPM9 NCCAP NCCI NCPI P.DPINN
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
PDCON PDEXOPS PDRATIO PDRPI PDUSCPI PI PIDIR PIOLI PIPROF
PIPR01 PlRADJ PISSC PITRAN PITRAN1 PI3 PI8 POP POPC POPGER
POPM POPMIG POPNE POPSKUL PR.BALCP PR.DPINN PR.DPIUS PR.PI
PR.PI3 R.BALCAP R.DPI R.DPI8N R.DPI8X R.WR97 RLMC RLOT RLPTI
RLTCS RLTCS4 RLTEB RLTEB4 RLTEF4 RLTEO RLTE04 RLTET RLTET4
RLTE99 RLTE994 RLTF RLTMA RLTMA4 RLTMS RLTRS RLTRS4 RLTT9
RLTT94 RLTVS4 RLT99 RMIS RMISRES ROFAS ROFERS ROFOS RSFDN
RSFFS RSFS1 RSGF RSGFBM RSIAS RTAS -RTBS2 .RTCIS RTCSI RTIS
RTISC RTISCAI RTISCA2 RTISCP RTISLOS RTMF RTOTS RTPIF RTSS
RTVS R99S TPTV VAEX WEALTH WEUS WRA9 WRCM WRCN WRCNNP
WRCNP WRDR WRDW WRD9 WRFI WRGA WRGC WRGF WRGL WRGM WRGS
WRM91 WRPU WRP9 WRSB WRSNB WRS9 WRT9 WR98 WSCN WSCNP WSGA
WSGC WSGL WSGM WSGS WSGSFY WS97 WS98 XXA9 XXCM XXCN XXCN1
XXCN8 XXDR XXDRNT XXDW XXD9 XXFI XXGA XXGF XXM9l XXPU XXP9
XXSB XXS8NT XXS9 XXTNT XXT9 XXVHY XXVNHY XX98
CONSTRUCT:
DF.BALDF DF.BALGF DF.BALPF DF.BAL9P DF.BAL99 DF.CABBM DF.EXGF
DF.EXGFB DF.EXGFP DF.GOXBM DF.NPET ·I:>F.NRP9S DF.PI DF.PIP
DF.RGFNT DF.RP9S DF.RSEN DF.RSFD DF.RSGF DF.RSGFB DF.RSIDN
DF.RSIGN DF.RSIN DF.RSINN DF.RSIP DF.RSIPN DF.R99S DF.WRG9
DF.WRNS DF.WRSP DF.WSG9 DF.WSNS DF.WSSP DF.WS98 EM.EMCN
EM.EMGA EM.EMGF EM.EMG9 EM.EMNR EM.EMNS EM.EMP9 EM.EMSP
EM.EMSUP EM.EMTCU EX.DSS EX.NPET EX.NRP9 EX.PET EX.RP9S
EX.RSEN EX.RSIN EX.RVNT EX.R99S EXBM.CAB EXBM.END EXBM.FD
---.-.EXBM-;-GRl "EXBM-;RV-G-;-BAL9PC-G~BAL99G;EL99 .G:EM99-G;EX99S
G.PDRPI G.POP G.PR.DPI G.PR.PI G.R.WR98 G.RNSPC G.RSEN G.SRPC
G.XONRPC IM.BALPC IM.BALR IM.BAL99 IM.BLRPC IM.REV INDEX.DI
INDEX.Sl INDEX.S2 INDEX.WG P.BALGF P.BALPF P.BAL99 P.DPINNl
P.ELED P.ELNED1 P.EL99 P.EXBM P.EXCAP P.EXONTR P.EXOPS
P.EX99S P.GEXP P.GODT P.NPET P.NRP9S P.PI P.PIN P.PINCL
P.PINN P.RLT99 P.RSEN P.RSIN P.RSIP P.RTIS P.RT99 P.R99S
PI.DPI PI.EL99 PI.EXL PI.EXS PI.EXT PI.EX99S PI.GODT PI.RLPT
..__PI.!J~r,.~._R.J:_.RSl1:1L J:>_I.TXL_PI ..TXS __.PI..WS9.8 .J?-IU..PIA-.-POR.AD--POp·.·CIV-·
POP.GER POP.KID POP.MIL POP.NAT PR.BALG1 PR.BAL.G.2_P.R...BALP.F----------
PR.BALP2 PR.BAL99 PR.DPI PR.DPIN PR.ECP PR.ECPN PR.ELED
PR.ELEDC PR.ELNED PR.EL99 PR.EXBM PR.EXCAP PR.EXCDS PR.EXEDS
PR.EXGGS PR.EXHES PR.EXJUS PR.EXNRS PR.EXONT PR.EXOPS PR.EXPPS
PR.EXSSS PR.EXTRS PR.EX99S PR.GEXP PR.GFC PR.GFCN PR.GODT
PR.NCEXP PR.NPET PR.NRP9 PR;PIN PR.PINCL PR.PINN PR.RLT99
PR.RSEN PR.RSIN PR.RSIP PR.RTIS PR.RT99 PR.R99S R.PI R.PIN
R.PINN R.WR98 RL99.PT RL99.RT RN.FEDRN.bIL Rl'J.RSENRN.RSIN
RS.FED RS.OWN RS.PET RS.REC RS.RN RS.RP9S RS.RSEN RS.RSIN
RSBM.B99'RSBM.GFR.SBM.PE'fRSBM~PF--RSEi"M:REN RSBM.RP9 U.AK.US
WR.AK.US
)
)1
I
.)
IJ
1<1
lJ
I IIJ
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
DEFINITION:
ADMDIS ADMREA BALCAB BALCABBM BALLANDS BALOCAL BCRUDE BTHTOT
BTOT CBR CDR CFl CFIO CFll CF12 CF13 CF14 CF1S CF2 CF3
CF4 CFS CF6 CF7 CF8 CF9 CHHF10 CHHF11 CHHFl2 CHHFl3 CHHFl4
CHHF15 CHHF4 CHHF5 CHHF6 CHHF7 CHHF8 CHHF9 CHHMIO CHHM11
CHHMl2 CHHMl3 CHHMl4 CHHMl5 CHHM4 CHHM5 CHHM6 CHHM7 CHHM8
CHHM9 CMI CMIO CMl1 CMl2 CMl3 CMl4 CMl5 CM2 CM3 CM4 CM5
CM6 CM7 CM8 CM9 CNNTOT DC RUDE DELEMP DTHINF DTHTOT DTOT
EMCU EMG9 EMMX EMNA EMNAT EMNC EMNNC EMNR EMNS EMOCSX
EMRATN EXBUD EXCAPNEW EXCAPREP EXCPSGOB EXEDSNT EXGFCAP
EXGFOPER EXHYCAP EXNHYCP EXOM84 EXONTR EXPFCONI EXPFNEW
EXPFREIN EXRP84 EXSPLIT HH HHC HHFIO HHF11 HHFl2 HHF13
HHFl4 HHFl5 HHF4 HHF5 HHF6 HHF7 HHF8 HHF9 HHM HHMIO HHMl1
HHMl2 HHMl3 HHMl4 HHMl5 HHM4 HHM5 HHM6 HHM7 HHM8 HHM9 HHN
HHSIZE HHSIZEC HHSIZEN HH24 HH25.29 HH30.54 HH55 LF LPTBFV
LPTBP9 LPTBIFV NAPFI NAPF2 NAPF3 NAPF4 NAPF5 NAPF6 NAPF7
NAPMI NAPM2 NAPM3 NAPM4 NAPM5 NAPM6 NAPM7 1 NATINC NATTOT
NBTHTOT NCBR NCDR NCEXP NCFI NCFIO NCF11 NCF12 NCF13 NCF14
NCF15 NCF2 NCF3 NCF4 NCF5 NCF6 NCF7 NCF8 NCF9 NCMl NCMIO
NCMII NCMl2 NCMl3 NCMl4 NCM15 NCM2 NCM3 NCM4 NCM5 NCM6
NCM7 NCM8 NCM9 NCWS NDTHINF NDTHTOT NEMA9N NEMCMN NEMCNN
NEMD9N NEMFIN NEMGAN NEMGFN NEMM9N NEMPUN NEMP9N NEMS9N
NEMT9N NHHFIO NHHFII NHHFl2 NHHF13 NHHFl4 NHHF15 NHHF4 NHHF5
NHHF6 NHHF7 NHHF8 NHHF9'NHHMIO NHHMII NHHMl2 NHHM13 NHHM14
NHHMl5 NHHM4 NHHM5 NHHM6 NHHM7 NHHM8 NHHM9 NNATINC NNPF1
NNPF2 NNPF3 NNPF4 NNPF5 NNPF6 NNPF7 NNPMI NNPM2 NNPM3 NNPM4
NNPM5 NNPM6 NNPM7 NONPET NONRP9S NWSA9N NWSCMN NWSCNN NWSD9N
NWSFIN NWSGAN NWSGFN NWSM9N NWSPUN NWSP9N NWSS9N NWST9N PF
PFN PIL PIN PINN PINI PIPE PIPRO PLFDOMC PLFDOMM PLFDOMN
PLFD9 PM PMN POPADS POPCGQ POPFI POP FlO POPF11 POPFl2
POPF13 POPFl4 POPF15.POPF2 POPF3 POPF4 POPF5 POPF6 POPF7
POPF8 POPF9 POPGQ POPKIDS POPMI POPMIO POPMII POPMl2 POPMl3
POPMl4 POPMl5 POPM2 POPM3 POPM4 POPM5 POPM6 POPM7 POPM8
POPM9 POPNGQ POPNI9 PPVAL PRINT PTBP9 RATIOI RAT 1 RLPT
RLTEA RLTEA4 RLTEC RLTEC4 RLTEF RLTOT RLTOT4 RLTVS RL99
RL991 RNAT ROFTS RPBSGF RPRYGF RP7S RP9S RP9SGF RSBM.EXD
RSEN RSENGF RSFDNPXG RSFS RSGFGAP RSGFRS RSID RSIDNET RSIG
RSIGNET RSIN RSINNET RSIP RSIPGF RSIPNET RTBS RTBS1 RTCS
RTISCA RT99 R99SNT R99S0N SLGEXP THG UNEMP WRCU WRGCN WRGCU
WRGD9 WRGFI WRGGA WRGGC WRGMS WRGM9 WRGP9 WRGS9 WRGT9 WRM9
WRM9P WR97 WSA9 WSCM WSD9 WSFI WSGF WSM9 WSM9P WSNA WSPU
WSP9 WSS9 WSS91 WST9 WS98L XXM9 XXVACAP Xl X2 X3 X4 X5 X6
EXOGENOUS:
ANCSA BADD BALDF1 BALGF1 BALPF1 BAL991 BASEMCNX BASEPOP
aASEXCAP BASEXGF BASEXOPS BASPDRPI BIU1 D.80DEC6 D61.66
D61.68 D61.69 D61.70 D61.72 D61.73 D61.74 D6l.75 D6l.76
D61.77 D64.65 D69 D71.00 D71.73 D72 D75 D77.00 D79 D81.00
EMNATX EXCAP1 EXCPSHY1 EXCPSNHI EXDSSX EXGFCHY1 EXGFCNH1
EXOPSl GODTX LPTRAT NCBP NCRP PCNCl PCNC2 PCNC3 PCOLART
PDVSCPI1 PIPADJ PR.DPIUl P9PTPER RNATX RTISXX SANCSA TCRED
TXBASE TXCRPC TXPTXX TXRT VAEX1 WEUS1 YR
G-3
COEFFICIENT:
CMIG1 CMIG2 CMIG3 CMIG4 CIA CIB CIC C10A CIOB CIOC ClOOA
CIOOB CIOOC C10lA Cl01B Cl02A Cl02B C102C Cl02D Cl02F Cl03A
Cl03B Cl03C Cl04A Cl04B Cl05A Cl05B Cl05C C106A C106B Cl07A
Cl07B CllA CllB C12A C12B C13A C13B C14A C14B C14C C15A
C15B C16A C16B C16C C16D C16E C17A C17B C18A C18B C19A
C19B C2A C2B C20A C20B C21A C21B C21C C22A C22B C23A C23B
C23C C23D C24A C24B C25A C25B C26A C26B C26C C27A C27B
C27C C28A C28B C28C C29A C29B C3A C3B C30A C30B C31A C3lB
C32A C32B C33A C33B C34A C34B C34C C35A C35B C36A C36B
C36C C36D C36F C37A C37B C38A C38B C39A C39B C4A C4B C40A
C40B C4lA C4lB C42A C42B C43A C43B C43C C44A C44B C44C
C44D C45A C45B C45C C45D C46A C46B C47A C47B C48A C48B
C49A C49B C5A C5B C50A C50B C5lA C5lB C52A C52B C53A C53B
C53C C53D C53F C54A C54B C54C C54D C54E C55A C55B C55C
C56A C56B C57A C57B C57C C58A C58B C59A C59B C59C C59D
C59E C59F C6A C6B C60A C60B C60C C61A C6lB C62A C62B C62C
~~~~~_~__~_~C6.2D_C62K-~C63A-C63B---~C64A--C64B ..G64Ce64D C64E C6SA--C65B
C66A C66B C66C C660 C66E C66F C67A C67B C67C C68A C68B
C68C C680 C69A C69B C7A C7B C70A C70B C70C C700 C70F C7lA
C71B C71C C71D C71E C72A C72B C72C C72D C73A C73B C73C
C74A C74B C74C C740 C74F C75A C75B C76A C76B C76C C760
C76E C77A C77B C78A C78B C78C C780 C78E C78F C79A C79B
C790 C79E C79F C8A C8B C80A C80B CSOC CSIA C81B CS2A CS2B
CS2C CS20 CS2F C83A CS3C CS3D CS3E CS4A CS4B CS4C C840
C85A CS5B CS6A C86B CS6C C860 CS6E CS6F CS7A CS7B C8SA __~~_~~~~_
--~--~-~-------~--~--CSSg--C-S-8CCSSD -CSSE C88~FC8aG ca9i C9A c91i ·C90AC90B C9lA
----C9]:B~-C92K---C92B-~C92c-~cnF-~C9-3A--C93B C94A-c94~lf-G95A--C95B -------------
C95C C95D C95F C96A C96B C97A C97B C9SA C98B C99A C99B
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
POLICY:
EMAGRI EMCNX1 EMCNX2 EMF ISH EMGC EMGM EMMXl EMMX2 EMP9
EMT9X EXBOND EXDFPCNT EXDFI EXPFBAK EXPFCONX EXPFDIST EXPFI
EXPRPER EXSAVX EXSPCAP EXSPLITX EXSUBSI GRDIRPU GREXCAP
GREXOPS GRRPCEX GRRWEUS GRSSCP GRUSCPI RLPTX RLTFPX RLTX
RPBS RPPS RPRY RPTS RP9X RSFDNPX RSFDNX RTCSPX RTCSX
TOURIST UUS XXMX2
PARAMETER:
AFTOT CPGQFl CPGQFlO CPGQFll CPGQF12 CPGQF13 CPGQF14 CPGQF15
CPGQF2 CPGQF3 CPGQF4 CPGQF5 GPGQF6 CPGQF7 CPGQFS CPGQF9
CPGQM1 CPGQM10 CPGQM1l CPGQM12 CPGQM13 CPGQM14 CPGQM15 CPGQM2
CPGQM3 CPGQM4 CPGQM5 CPGQM6 CPGQM7 CPGQMS CPGQM9 EXANNU
EXCAPIMP EXCAPOLO EXELI EXEL2 EXEL3 EXEL4 EXEL5 EXEL6
EXLIM82 EXOMCOST EXOPSIMP EXRLOP6 EXRLOP7 EXRLOP8 EXRLI EXRL2
EXRL3 EXRL4 EXRL40P EXRL5 FERT10 FERTll FERT4 FERT5 FERT6
FERT7 FERTS FERT9 Gl G10 GIl G12 G13 G14 GIS G2 G3 G4
G5 G6 G7 GS G9 HHRFIO HHRFll HHRF12 HHRF13 HHRF14 HHRF15
HHRF4 HHRF5 HHRF6 HHRF7 HHRFS HHRF9 HHRM10 HHRM1l HHRM12
HHRM13 HHRM14 HHRM15 HHRM4 HHRM5 HHRM6 HHRM7 HHRM8 HHRM9
LFPART MDPFI MDPFIO MOPFll MDPF12 MOPF13 MDPF14 MOPF15 MOPF2
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Institute of Social
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MAP Documentation
May 1983
MDPF3 MDPF4 MDPFS MDPF6 MDPF7 MOPF8 MDPF9 MDPMI MDPMIO
MDPM1I MDPMI2 MDPM13 MDPMI4 MDPM1S MDPM2 MDPM3 MDPM4 MDPMS
MDPM6 MDPM7 MDPM8 MDPM9 MDTOT MFI MFIO MF1I MFI2 MFI3 MFI4
MFIS MF2 MF3 MF4 MFS MF6 MF7 MF8 MF9 MHHFIO MHHFII MHHFI2
MHHF13 MHHF14 MHHFIS MHHFS MHHF6 MHHF7 MHHF8 MHHF9 MHHMIO
MHHMII MHHM12 MHHM13 MHHMI4 MHHMIS MHHMS MHHM6 MHHM7 MHHM8
MHHM9 MILFI MILFIO MILFII MILFI2 MILFI3 MILFI4 MILFIS MILF2
MILF3 MILF4 MILFS MILF6 MILF7 MILF8 MILF9 MILMI MILMIO
MILMII MILMI2 MILMI3 MILMI4 MILMIS MILM2 MILM3 MILM4 MILMS
MILM6 MILM7 MILM8 MILM9 MILRAT MMI MMIO MMII MM12 MMI3
MMI4 MMIS MM2 MM3 MM4 MMS MM6 MM7 MM8 MM9 NFERTIO NFERTII
NFERT4 NFERTS NFERT6 NFERT7 NFERT8 NFERT9 NHHRFIO NHHRFII
NHHRFI2 NHHRFI3 NHHRF14 NHHRF1S NHHRF4 NHHRFS NHHRF6 NHHRF7
NHHRF8 NHHRF9 NHHRMIO NHHRMII NHHRMI2 NHHRMI3 NHHRMI4 NHHRMIS
NHHRM4 NHHRMS NHHRM6 NHHRM7 NHHRM8 NHHRM9 NMFI NMFIO NMFII
NMFI2 NMFI3 NMFI4 NMFIS NMF2 NMF3 NMF4 NMFS NMF6 NMF7 NMF8
NMF9 NMMI NMM10 NMM1I NMMI2 NMMI3 NMMI4 NMMIS NMM2 NMM3
NMM4 NMMS NMM6 NMM7 NMM8 NMM9 NPGQFI NPGQFIO ~PGQFII
NPGQFI2 NPGQFI3 NPGQFI4 NPGQFIS NPGQF2 NPGQF3 NPGQF4 NPGQFS
NPGQF6 NPGQF7 NPGQF8 NPGQF9 NPGQMl NPGQMIO NPGQMII NPGQMI2
NPGQMI3 NPGQMI4 NPGQMIS NPGQM2 NPGQM3 NPGQM4 NPGQMS NPGQM6
NPGQM7 NPGQM8 NPGQM9 NRCFIO NRCFII NRCFI2 NRCFI3 NRCFI4
NRCFIS NRCF4 NRCFS NRCF6 NRCF7 NRCF8 NRCF9 NRCMIO NRCMII
NRCMI2 NRCMI3 NRCM14 NRCMIS NRCM4 NRCMS NRCM6 NRCM7 NRCM8
NRCM9 NSEXDIV NSFI NSFIO NSFII NSFI2 NSFI3 NSFI4 NSFIS NSF2
NSF3 NSF4 NSFS NSF6 NSF7 NSF8 NSF9 NSMI NSM10 NSMII NSMI2
NSMI3 NSMI4 NSMIS NSM2 NSM3 NSM4 NSMS NSM6 NSM7 NSM8 NSM9
NSURINFF NSURINFM NTP OEMFI OEMFIO OEMFII OEMFI2 OEMFI3
OEMFI4 OEMFIS OEMF2 OEMF3 OEMF4 OEMFS OEMF6 OEMF7 OEMF8
OEMF9 OEMMI OEMMIO OEMMIl OEMMI2 OEMMI3 OEMMI4 OEMMIS OEMM2
OEMM3 OEMM4 OEMMS OEMM6 OEMM7 OEMM8 OEMM9 PADJ PADI PAD2
PARLVFV PARNONGF PBLTBL PBTRATE PCINDA PCIVPY PCNCSV PCNCSVI
PCNCWS PCNC4 PCWSI PCYNAI PCI2N PCI2RN PCI3C PC39A PC39B
PDRPIBAS PECIG PERNAI PERNA2 PERNA3 PESLT PES LTC PFISHI
PIDIST PNTGR POPMGQ PRINT2 PTOURB PTOURD PTOURE PTOURS
PTOURT PTRTS PWRBASE PI P2 P3 P4 PS P6 RCFIO RCFII RCFI2
RCFI3 RCFI4 RCFIS RCF4 RCFS RCF6 RCF7 RCF8 RCF9 RCMIO
RCMII RCMI2 RCMI3 RCMI4 RCMIS RCM4 RCMS RCM6 RCM7 RCM8
RCM9 ROR RORANGRO RORCPDEP RORCRF RORDISK RORNC RORPDF
RORPPF SEXDIV SFI SFIO SFIl SFI2 SFI3 SFI4 SFIS SF2 SF3
SF4 SFS SF6 SF7 SF8 SF9 SMI SMIO SMII SMI2 SMI3 SMI4
SMIS SM2 SM3 SM4 SMS SM6 SM7 SM8 SM9 SURINFF SURINFM TP
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Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
EQUATIONS
National Variables
1:PR.DPIUS =IF YR LT 1982 THEN PR.DPIU1 ELSE PR.DPIUS(-l)*
(l+GRDIRPU)
2:PDUSCPI =IF YR LT 1982 THEN PDUSCPI1 ELSE PDUSCPI(-l)*
(l+GRUSCPI)
3:WEUS =IF YR LT 1982 THEN WEUS1 ELSE WEUS(-l)*(l+GRUSCPI+GRRWEUS)
4:PDRATIO =IF YR EQ 1980 THEN 1.296 ELSE (IF YR EQ 1981 THEN
1.266 ELSE (IF YR EQ 1982 THEN 1.262 ELSE (IF RTIS(-2)-RTIS(-1)
NE 0 AND RTIS(-2)EQ 0 THEN PDRATIO(-1)+C67A*(EMSP-EMSP(-1»1
EMSP(-1)+C67B*(EMCNRT/(EM98(-1)/(EM98-EMCNX1»)-C67C ELSE
PDRATIO(-1)+C67A*(EMSP-EMSP(-1»/EMSP(-1)+C67B*(EMCNRTI (EM98(-1)1
(EM98-EMCNX1»»»
Price Deflators
5:PDRPI =PDRATIO*PDUSCPI
15:LOG(FAGI)=C21A+C21B*LOG(PI8)+C21C*LOG(EMCNX1+EMP9)
14:DF.RSVP =IF YR LT 1982 THEN 0 ELSE DF.RSVP(-1)+RP9S*
(PDRPIBAS/PDRPI)*(1/(1+RORDISK)**(YR-1981»
6:PDEXOPS =WSGSFY(-1)/EXOPS(-1)*(WRGA*100/PWRBASE)+(EXOPS(-1)-
WSGSFY(-l»/EXOPS(-l)*PDRPI
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7:PDCON =C107A+C107B*WRCNNP
9:RP9S ==RP7S+RPPS+RPTS+RTCSPX+RP9X
13:RSFDNPXG ==(1-EXPF1)*RSFDNPX .
10:RP9SGF --RP9S-EXPF1*RP7S
11:RPBSGF --(1-EXPF1)*RPBS
12:RPRYGF --(l-EXPF1)*RPRY
State Revenues
______~~~~_~OO~~.8:_~__RP-7_S_-==RP-BS+RPRY+RSFDNPX--~~
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Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
16:LOG(FAGII)=C22A+C22B*LOG(PI)
17:COLA =(1-1/(I+PCOLART»*WSGC
18:AGI =FAGI+COLA-WSGM-PCI2N*PCI2RN*ANCSA*PCNCl
19:AEX*1000 =CI0A+CI0B*POPC+CI0C*(EMCNXI+EMP9)
20:ATT =C28A+C28B*(EM99-EMGM)+C28C*EMCNXI
21:LOG(ATO/ATT)=C23A+C23B*LOG(AGI/ATT)+C23C*069+C230*072
22:VAEX =IF YR LT 1980 THEN VAEXI ELSE VAEX(-l)*(I+GRUSCPI)
23:ATI =AGI-AEX*VAEX-ATO
24:ATI.TT =ATI/ATT
25:LOG(RTISCAl)=C24A-TXBASE+C24B*(I-TXRT)*LOG(ATI.TT)
26:LOG(RTISCA2)=C24A+C24B*LOG(ATI.TT)
27:RTISCA ==IF YR GT 1984 THEN (IF EXTRNS+EXTRNS(-I)EQ 0 THEN
EXRL5*(RTISCAI-TXCRPC*RTISCAI-TCREO/I000)ELSE 0)ELSE (IF YR LT
1979 THEN RTISCAl-TXCRPC*RTISCAI-TCREO/I000 ELSE 0)
28:RTISLOS ==(RTISCA2-RTISCA)*ATT
29:RTISC =RTISCA*ATT
30:RTIS =IF YR EQ 1980 THEN 0 ELSE C25A*RTISC(-I)+C25B*RTISC
31:RTISCP =Cl05A+CI05B*PI8+CI05C*RTISC
32:LOG(RTPIF/ATT)=C26A+C26B*LOG(FAGII/ATT+TCREO/I000/ATT+
RTISLOS/ATT)+C26C*061.68*LOG(FAGII/ATT+TCREO/I000/ATT+RTISLOS/ATT)
38:LOG(RTBS2*10**3/BL(-l»=C29A+C29B*LOG(GTR(-I)*10**3/BL(-I»
39:RTBS ==IF YR GE 1979 THEN RTBSl+RTBS2*PBLTBL ELSE RTBSl+RTBS2
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Institute of Social
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MAP Documentation
May 1983
40:LOG(RTCS1*100/PDRPI)=C43A+C43C*D64.65+C43B*LOG(EMP9(-1)+
EMCN(-1)+EMM9(-1)+EMT9(-1)+EMCM(-1)+EMPU(-1»
41:RTCS ==RTCS1+RTCSPX+RTCSX
42:TPTV =C38A+C38B*POP
43:LOG(AHG)=C37A+C37B*LOG(PR.PI)
44:THG ==AHG*TPTV
45:LOG(RTMF)=C46A+C46B*LOG(THG)
46:LOG(RTVS)=C47A+C47B*LOG(R.DPI8N(-1»
47:LOG(RTAS)=C48A+C48B*LOG(R.DPI(-1»
48:LOG(RTCIS)=C49A+C49B*LOG(R.DPI(-1»
49:RTSS =IF YR GT 1980 THEN 0 ELSE C50A+C50B*(EM99-EMGM)
50:RTOTS =RTOTS(-l)*(l+GRUSCPI+GRDIRPU)
51:RT99 ==RTIS+RTCS+RPPS+RPTS+RP9X+RTBS+RTMF+RTAS+(1-PECIG)*
RTCIS+RTVS+RTSS+RTOTS
52:LOG(ROFAS)=C30:A.+C30B*LCfG(TPTV(-1))
53:LOG(ROFOS)=C33A+C33B*LOG(PI3(-1»
54:ROFTS ==ROFAS+ROFOS
55:ROFERS =ROFERS(~l)*(l+GRUSCPI+GRDIRPU)
..56:.LOG(RMIS):::::.C35A+C35B:.%LOG(PI3(~1
==(ROR+GRUSCPI+RORPPF)*BALPF(-l)
58:RSIPGF ==(l-EXPFBAK)*RSIP
59:RSID --(ROR+GRUSCPI-RORPDF)*BALDF(-l)
60:RSIG --(ROR+GRUSCPI>*BALGF(-l)
61:RSIN ==(ROR+GRUSCPI)*BAL99(-1)+RORPPF*BALPF(-1)-RORPDF*BALDF(-1)
62:RSIPNET --(ROR+GRUSCPI-(PDRPI/PDRPI(-l)-l)+RORPPF)*BALPF(-l)
63:RSIDNET --(ROR+GRUSCPI-(PDRPI/PDRPI(-l)-l)-RORPDF)*BALDF(-l)
64:RSIGNET --(ROR+GRUSCPI-(PDRPI/PDRPI(-l)-l»*BALGF(-l)
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MAP Documentation
May 1983
65:RSINNET ==(ROR+GRUSCPI-(PDRPI/PDRPI(-1)-1»*BAL99+RORPPF*
BALPF(-l)-RORPDF*BALDF(-l)
66:RSGFBM =RT99+(1-EXPF1)*RP7S+ROFTS+ROFERS+RSIG+(1-EXPFBAK)*
RSIP+RMIS+EXDFWITH
67:RSFDN =IF YR EQ 1982 THEN 187.968 ELSE RSFDNX+RSFDN(-1)*
(1+GRUSCPI+GRDIRPU)
68:RMISRES =IF YR EQ 1982 THEN 16.739 ELSE RMISRES(-1)*
(1+GRUSCPI+GRDIRPU)
69:RSGFRS ==RSFDN+RMISRES
70:RSGF =RSGFBM+RSGFRS
71:R99S =RSGF+EXPF1*RP7S+EXPFBAK*RSIP+(RSID-EXDFWITH)-SANCSA
72:LOG(RSFFS)=C58A+C58B*LOG(POP(-1»
73:RSFS1 =RSFS1(-1)*(1+GRUSCPI+GRDIRPU)
74:RSFS ==PECIG*RTCIS+RSFFS+RSFS1
75:RSIAS =IF YR EQ 1982 THEN 31.12 ELSE RSIAS(-1)*(1+GRUSCPI+
GRDIRPU)
76:R99SNT --R99S-EXPFCON
77:R99S0N --R99S-RSFDN
78:NONPET --R99S-RP9S-RSIN
79:NONRP9S ==R99S-RP9S
80:RSEN ==R99S-(RP9S-SANCSA)-RSIN-RSFDN
81:RSENGF ==RSGFBM-RP9SGF-RSIPGF-RSIG
82:EXPFCON =EXPFBAK*RSIP+EXPF1*RP7S+EXPFCONX
83:EXPFNEW ==EXPF1*RP7S
84:EXPFREIN --EXPFBAK*RSIP
85:EXPFCON1 --EXPFCON-EXPFCONX
86:EXDFCON =IF RSGFBM GT EXGFBM THEN EXDF1*(RSGFBM-EXGFBM)+
(RSID-EXDFWITH)ELSE RSID-EXDFWITH
87:EXDFWITH =EXDFPCNT*RSIDNET
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state Expenditures
94:EXSAVS =EXSAVX+EXPFCON+TXPTXX*RTISLOS
95:LOG(EXJUS4)=C20A+C20B*LOG(EXOPS)
96:LOG(EXPPS4)=C91A+C91B*LOG(EXOPS)
97:LOG(EXNRS4)=C93A+C93B*LOG(EXOPS)
98:LOG(EXHES4)=C94A+C94B*L.P_G_CEXOI>.SJ """--------_.~_._~~
99:LOG(EXSSS4)=C96A+C96B*LOG(EXOPS)
100:LOG(EXEDS4)=C19A+C19B*LOG(EXOPS)
101:LOG(EXCDS4)=C97A+C97B*LOG(EXOPS)
102:LOG(EXTRS4)=C98A+C98B*LOG(EXOPS)
103:LOG(EXGGS4)=C99A+C99B*LOG(EXOPS)
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EXLIM-EXLIMOK
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
EXUA =IF YR EQ 1982 THEN 197.7 ELSE EXUA(-l)*(EXOPS/EXOPS(-l»
RATI01 ==EXOPS/(EXEDS4+EXSSS4+EXHES4+EXNRS4+EXPPS4+EXJUS4+
EXCDS4+RLTX+EXTRS4+EXGGS4)
EXANSAV =RP9S+RSIN-EXANNU*(1+RORANGRO)**(YR-1980
EXLIMOK =IF YR LT 1985 THEN EXLIM ELSE (IF RSGFBM-EXDSS-EXTRNS+
BALGF(-l)GT EXLIM THEN EXLIM ELSE RSGFBM-EXDSS-EXTRNS)
RSGFGAP --
EXSPLIT --IF YR LT 1985 THEN 0.67 ELSE (IF RSGFGAP GT 0 AND
RSGFGAP(-l)GT 0 THEN EXSPLITX ELSE (IF RSGFGAP GT 0 THEN
0.67+(EXSPLITX-0.67)/2 ELSE 0.67»
EXOPS =IF YR LE 1983 THEN EXOPS1 ELSE EXRL5*(EXLIMOK*EXSPLIT+
EXINREC+RSFDN+RMISRES+RSFS+RSIAS)+EXRL1*(EXOPS(-1)*(1+(EXEL1*(POP
(-1)/POP(-2)-1)+EXEL2*(PDEXOPS(-1)/PDEXOPS(-2)-1)+EXEL3*(PR.PI3
(-1)/PR.PI3(-2)-1)+EXEL4*(PI(-1)/PI(-2)-1)+EXEL5*(PI3(-1)/PI3(-2)-
1)+EXEL6*«POP(-1)-EMCNXl(-1»/(P01'(-2)-E!!GN](l(-2»-1»)+EXRLOP6*
BALGFCP(-1)*(BALGFP(~1)/EXGF(-1»)+EXRLOP7*(R99S(-1)-EXNOPS(-l)
EXSAVS)+EXRLOP8*(R99S(-1)-EXNOPS(-1)-EXANSAV)+EXRL3*(l+GR RPCEX)*
(EXOPS(-1)/POP(-1)/PDEXOPS(-1)*POP*PDEXOPS)+EXRL2*EXOPS(-l)*
(l+GREXOPS)+EXRL4*(BASEXOPS+EXOPSIMP*(PDEXOPS*(POP-BAS EPOP-
EXRL40P*(EMCNX1-BASEMCNX»»
EXLIM =IF YR EQ 1982 THEN EXLIM82 ELSE EXLIM82*
(PDRPI/PDRPIBAS)*(POP/430)
88:
93:
90:
89:
92:
91:
105:
104:
106:.EXEDS =RATIOl*EXEDS4
107:EXSSS =RATIOl*EXSSS4
108:EXHES =RATIOl*EXHES4
109:EXNRS =RATIOl*EXNRS4
110:EXPPS =RATIOl*EXPPS4
111:EXJUS =RATIOl*EXJUS4
112:EXTRS =RATIOl*EXTRS4
113:EXGGS =RATIOl*EXGGS4
114:EXCDS =RATIOl*(EXCDS4+RLTX)
115:RLTE99 =RLTE994*RATIOI
116:EXEDSNT ==EXEDS-RLTE99
117:RLTT9 =RLTT94*RATIOI
118:RLTRS =RLTRS4*RATI01
119:EXCDSNT =EXCDS-RLTT9-RLTRS-RLTX
120:EXPRCDS =C7A+C7B*EXCDSNT
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and Economic Research
~~P Documentation
May 1983
121:EXPREDS1 =C1A+CIB*EXEDSNT+C1C*D61.75*EXEDSNT
122:EXPRSSS =C2A+C2B*EXSSS
123:EXPRUA =C32A+C32B*EXUA
124:EXPRHES =C3A+C3B*EXHES
125:EXPRNRS =C4A+C4B*EXNRS
126:EXPRPPS =C5A+C5B*EXPPS
127:EXPRGGS =C8A+C8B*EXGGS
128:EXPRJUS =C6A+C6B*EXJUS
129:EXPRTRS =C9A+C9B*EXTRS
130:EXPR99 =EXPRPER*(EXPREDSl+EXPRSSS+EXPRHES+EXPRNRS+EXPRPPS+
EXPRJUS+(+EXPRCDS)+EXPRGGS+EXPRTRS+EXPRUA)
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131:WSGSFY =PCWS1*EXPR99
132:LOG(WSGS)=C55A+C55B*LOG(WSGSFY)+C55C*D75
133:EXTRNS =IF YR LT 1981 THEN 0 ELSE (IF YR EQ 1982 THEN 425 ELSE
RSIP*(l-EXPFBAK)*EXPFDIST)
134:EXINREC =C17A+C17B*(EXOPS-RLT99)
135:EXSUBS =IF YR LT 1988 THEN EXSUBS1 ELSE (IF EXRL5 EQ 1 THEN (IF
RSGFBM(-1)+RSGFBM(-2)-1 LT EXGFBM(-1)+EXGFBM(-2)OR EXSUBS(-1)
EQ 0 THEN 0 ELSE EXLIMOK*(0.5*(1-EXSPLIT»)ELSE
EXSUBS(-l)*(l+GRUSCPI»
136:EXCAP =IF YR LT 1984 THEN EXCAP1 ELSE EXRL5*(EXLIMOK*
(1-EXSPLIT)-EXSUBS)/(1-EXBOND)+EXRL3*«1+GRSSCP)*PR.BALCP(-l)*POP/
1000-R.BALCAP(-1)*(1/(1+RORCPDEP»)/(100/PDCON)+EXRL2*(EXCAP(-l)*
(1+GREXCAP»+EXRL4*(BASEXCAP+EXCAPIMP*(PDCON*(POP-BASEPOP-EXRL40P*
(EMCNX1-BASEMCNX»»+EXRL1*(EXCAP(-1)*(1+EXEL1*(POP(-1)/POP(-2)-
1)+EXEL2*(PDCON(-1)/PDCON(-2)-1)+EXEL3*(PR.PI3(-1)/PR.PI3(-2)-1)+
EXEL4*(PI(-1)/PI(-2)-1)+EXEL5*(PI3(-1)/PI3(-2)-1)+EXEL6*«POP(-1)-
EMCNX1(-1»/(POP(-2)-EMCNX1(-2»-1»)
137:EXGFCHY =IF YR LT 1984 THEN EXGFCHY1 ELSE 0.6*EXCAP*(1-EXBOND)
.-----~.-•.._---_.._----_....__._._--_...._-13.K:.EXGE.CNH =IFYRLT 1984 THEN EXGFCNHl ELSE O.4*E-XGAP*H~EXBOND-)-
139:EXCPSHY =IF YR LT 1984 THEN EXCPSHY1 ELSE 0.25*EXCAP*EXBOND
140:EXCPSNH =IF YR LT 1984 THEN EXCPSNH1 ELSE 0.75*EXCAP*EXBOND
141:EXHYCAP ==EXGFCHY+EXCPSHY
142:EXNHYCP --EXGFCNH+EXCPSNH
144:EXCAPFR =EXCAPFR(-l)*(EXCAP/EXCAP(-l»
145:EXCPS =EXCPSHY+EXCPSNH
146:XXVHY =C41A+C41B*(EXHYCAP+EXHYCAP(-1»
147:XXVNHY =C42A+C42B*(EXNHYCP(.....l)+EXSPCAP(-l)-EXCAPFR(--2)+
EXNHYCP+EXSPCAP-EXCAPFR(-1»
148:XXVACAP ==(XXVHY+XXVNHY)/(PDCON/100)
149:EXDSS =IF YR LT 1983 THEN EXDSSX ELSE EXDSSX+RORCRF*DEBTP82(-1)
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l~P Documentation
May 1983
150:EXCPSFED =IF YR EQ 1982 THEN 105.021 ELSE EXCPSFED(-l)*
(l+GRUSCPI)
151:EXCPSGOB --EXCPS-EXCPSFED
152:EXCPSM =IF YR LT 1983 THEN 0 ELSE EXCPSGOB
153:DEBTP82 =IF YR LT 1983 THEN 0 ELSE
DEBTP82 (-1)+EXCPSGOB-EXCPSM(-20)
154:GODT =IF YR LT 1983 THEN GODTX ELSE GODTX+EXCPSM(-19)*0.05+
EXCPSM(-18)*0.1+EXCPSM(-17)*0.lS+EXCPSM(-16)*0.2+EXCPSM(-15)*0.25+
EXCPSM(-14)*0.3+EXCPSM(-13)*0.35+EXCPSM(-12)*0.4+EXCPSM(-11)*0.4S+
EXCPSM(-10)*0.5+EXCPSM(-9)*0.55+EXCPSM(-8)*0.6+EXCPSM(-7)*0.65+
EXCPSM(-6)*0.7+EXCPSM(-5)*0.75+EXCPSM(-4)*0.8+EXCPSM(-3)*0.85+
EXCPSM(-2)*0.9+EXCPSM(-1)*0.95+EXCPSGOB
155:EXGF =EXOPS+EXTRNS+EXSUBS+EXSPCAP+EXDSS-EXINREC+EXGFCAP-
RSFS-RSIAS
156:EX99S =EXOPS+EXTRNS+EXSUBS+EXSPCAP+EXDSS+EXCAP+PARNONGF*EXUA
157:EXGFBM =EXGF+EXPFCONX-RSFDN-RMISRES
158:EXNOPS =EX99S-EXOPS
159:EXBUD ==EXOPS+EXDSS+PARNONGF*EXUA
160:EXGFOPER ==EXGFBM-EXTRNS-EXGFCAP-EXSUBS-EXSPCAP-EXPFCONX
161:EXONTR --EXOPS+EXDSS-RLTE99-RLTT9-RLTRS-RLTMS-RLTX
162:BALCAB --R99S-EXGF
163:BALCABBM ==RSGFBM-EXGFBM
164:BAL99 =IF YR LT 1982 THEN BAL991 ELSE (IF YR EQ 1982 THEN 3612
ELSE BAL99(-1)+R99S-EXGF)
I ]
165:BALGF =IF YR LT 1982 THEN BALGF1 ELSE BAL99-BALPF-BALDF
LJ 166:BALDF IF YR LT 1983 THEN BALDF1 ELSE BALDF(-l)+EXDFCON=
167:BALPF =IF YR LT 1983 XHEN BALPF1 ELSE BALPF(-l)+EXPFCON
168:BALGFP =IF BALGF LT 0 THEN 0 ELSE BALGF
169:BALGFCP =IF BALGF-BALGF(-l)GT 0 THEN BALGF-BALGF(-l)ELSE 0
170:R.BALCAP =R.BALCAP(-1)*(1/(1+RORCPDEP»+EXCAP*100/PDCON
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171:PR.BALCP =R.BALCAP~lOOO/POP
172:EXCAPREP ==IF YR LT 1984 THEN 0 ELSE RORCPDEP~BALCAP84(-1)+
EXCAPOLD~(PDRPI/PDRPIBAS)
173:EXCAPNEW ==IF YR LT 1984 THEN 0 ELSE EXCAP-EXCAPREP
174:BALCAP84 =IF YR LT 1984 THEN 0 ELSE BALCAP84(-1)~PDRPI/
PDRPI(-l)+EXCAPNEW
175:EXOM84 --BALCAP84(-1)~EXOMCOST
176:EXRP84 --RORCPDEP~BALCAP84(-1)
Local Revenues
177:LOG(LPTB1)=C57A+C57B~LOG(PI3(-1»+C57C~D71.00
178:LPTB1FV ==LPTB1~1/PARLVFV
179:PTBP9 ==RPPS~(l/PTRTS)
180:LPTBP9 ==P9PTPER~PTBP9
1;8-1:LiPTB =·I.:;PTBl'fLPTBP9~LPTRAT
182:LPTBFV ==LPTB1FV+LPTBP9
183:PPVAL ==LPTB1FV+PTBP9
184:RLPT1 =C18A+C18B~LPTB
186:LOG(RLOT*1000/POP(-1»=C31A+C31B*LOG(PI(-1)*1000/POP(-1»
187:RLTCS4 =IF YR GT 1981 THEN 0 ELSE PESLTC*RTCS1
188:RLTVS4 =C63A+C63B*RTVS
189:-RLTOT4 ==PESLT*RTOTS
190:RLTMA4 =IF YR LT 1982 THEN 0 ELSE
RLTMA(-l)/PDRPI(-l)/POP(-l)*POP*PDRPI
191:RLTT94 =RLTVS4+RLTOT4+RLTCS4+RLTMA4
192:RLTRS4 =RLTRS(-l)*(l+GRUSCPI+GRDIRPU)
G-14
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
~~P Documentation
May 1983
193:RLTMS =IF YR EQ 1981 THEN 50.887 ELSE (IF EXSUBS EQ 0 THEN 0
ELSE RLTMS(-l)*(l+GRUSCPI+GRDIRPU»
194:RLTEC4 --PECIG*RTCIS
195:ADMDIS --PAD1*POPSKUL(-1)
196:ADMREA --PAD2*POPSKUL(-1)
197:ADMSD =ADMDIS+ADMREA
198:BIU =IF YR LT 1980 THEN BIUl ELSE BIU(-l)*(l+GRUSCPI)
199:RLTEF4 =C36A+C36F*D81.00+D71.00*C36B+BIU*C36C+C36D*ADMSD
200:RLTET4 =(POP/POP(-I)+PDRPI/PDRPI(-l)-l)*RLTET(-I)
201:RLTE04 =RLTEO(-l)*(l+GRUSCPI+GRDIRPU)
202:RLTEA4 ==RLTEC4+RLTEF4+RLTET4+RLTE04
203:RLTEB4 =IF YR EQ 1980 THEN 7.5 ELSE
RLTEB(-l)*(I+GRUSCPI+GRDIRPU)
204:RLTE994 =RLTEA4+RLTEB4
205:RLTCS =RLTCS4*RATI01
206:RLTVS --RLTVS4*RATI01
207:RLTOT --RLTOT4*RATI01
208:RLTMA =RLTMA4*RATI01
209:RLTEC --RLTEC4*RATIOI
210:RLTEF --RLTEF4*RATIOI
211:RLTET =RLTET4*RATIOI
212:RLTEO =RLTE04*RATI01
213:RLTEA ==RLTEA4*RATIOI
214:RLTEB =RLTEB4*RATIOI
215:RLT99 =RLTT9+RLTRS+RLTE99+RLTMS+RLTX
G-15
Institute of Social
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MAP Documentation
May 1983
Local Expenditures
216:ELEDl =C11A+C11B*PI3(-1)
217:ELED =RLTE99+ELED1
218:ELBD =C14A+C14C*D61.77*GOBONDL(-1)+C14B*GOBONDL(-1)
219:ELNED1/PDRPI =C16A+C16E*D81.00+C16D*R.DPI8N(-1)+
C16B*D71.00*R.DPI8N(-1)+C16C*WEALTH(-1)*POP(-1)
220:EL99 =ELED+ELNED1+ELBD+RLTX+RLTFPX+RLTMS
221:RLTF =RLTF(-l)*(l+GRUSCPI+GRDIRPU)
222:RL991 ==RLPT+RLOT+RLT99+RLTF+RLTFPX
223:RLMC =EL99-RL991-(GOBONDL-GOBONDL(-1»
224:RL99 ==RL991+RLMC
225:ELEDCP =C15A+C15B*ELED
226:ELPERS =C12A+C12B*(EL99-ELEDCP-ELBD)
228:GOBONDL =GOBONDL(-l)*(l+GRUSCPI+GRDIRPU)
229:SLGEXP ==EX99S+EL99-RLT99
230:BALOCAL ==RL99-(EL99-ELBD)
231:BALLANDS ==BALOCAL+BALCAB
Economic Module
Personal Income
232:PIDIR =C51A+C51B*(DPI+DPI(-1)+DPI(-2)+DPI(-3)+DPI(-4»
233:PITRAN1 =IF YR EQ 1981 THEN 500.245 ELSE PITRAN1(....1)/
POPGER(....l)*(l+GRUSCPI)*POPGER
.234:PITRAN/PDRPI =IF YR GT 1980 THEN PITRAN1/PDRPI+EXTRNS/PDRPI
ELSE C34A+C34B*POP+C34C*D61.72+EXTRNS/PDRPI
235:PIOLI =C44A+C44D*D61.75+C44B*(WS98-WSCNP)+C44C*WSCNP(-1)
236:PISSC =C106A+C106B*(WS98-WSCNP)
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
237:PIPR01*100/PDRPI =C45A+C45B*EMPR01+C45C*D61.66+C45D*D79
238:PIPROF =EMPROFIS*(4.523*(PDRPI/340»
239:PIPRO ==PIPR01+PIPROF
240:PI8 =WS98+PIOLI+PIPRO-PISSC+PIDIR+PITRAN
241:NCCI =PC12N*(1-PCNC1)*ANCSA+(1-PCNC2)*NCRP+(1-PCNC3)*
RORNC*NCCAP(-l)
242:NCCAP =PCNCSV*NCCI+NCCAP(-1)+PCNCSV1*(1-PCNC4)*NCBP
243:NCEXP ==(1-PCNCSV)*NCCI+(1-PCNCSV1)*(1-PCNC4)*NCBP
244:NCWS ==PCNCWS*NCEXP
245:NCPI =PC12N*PC12RN*PCNC1*ANCSA+PC12RN*PCNC2*NCRP+PC12RN*
PCNC3*RORNC*NCCAP(-1)+PC12RN*PCNC4*NCBP
246:PIRADJ*lOO/PDRPI =C103A+C103B*EMCNX1+C103C*EM97
247:PI =PI8-PIRADJ
248:PI3 =PI-PI/WS98*WRCNP*EMCNX1/1000
249:R.PI --PI*100./PDRPI
250:P.PI --PI*lOOO./POP
251:PR.PI3 =PI3*100/PDRPI*1000/(POP-EMCNX1)
252:PR.PI =R.PI*lOOO./POP
253:WEALTH =(PR.PI+PR.PI(-1)+PR.PI(-2)+PR.PI(-3»/4
254:DPI =PI-RTPIF-RTISCP-DPIRES+RTISXX
255:DPI8 =DPI+PIRADJ
256:R.DPI =100.*DPI/PDRPI
257:PR.DPI ==R.DPI*lOOO/POP
258:R.DPI8N =DPI8*100/PDRPI-R.DPI8X
259:R.DPI8X =DPI8/PI8*WRCNP*EMCNX1/10/PDRPI
G-17
.1
Institute of Social
and Economic Research .\
MAP Documentation
May 1983
!
Sectoral Activity .1
260:
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267:
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273:
EMCNRT =IF EMCNXl/4 LT EMCNX1(-1)THEN 0 ELSE EMCNXll
(EM98-EMCNXl)
PIPE ==IF EMCNXI-EMCNXl(-l)GT 5 THEN 1 ELSE 0
XXCNa =C54A+C54B*R.DPIaN+C54C*R.DPIaX+C54D*R.DPIaX(_1)+
C54E*D64.65
XXCNI =XXCNa+XXVACAP
LOG(EMCNl)=C56A+C56B*LOG(XXCNl)
EMCNX =EMCNXl+EMCNX2
EMCN =EMCNl+~MCNX
XXCN =EMCN/EMCNl*XXCNl,
LOG (WRCNNP/PDRPI)=
C59A+C59F*D.aODEC6+C59B*LOG(WEUS/PDUSCPI)+C59C*LOG(1+EMCNRT)+
C59D*LOG(1+EMCNRT(-1»+C59E*LOG(I+EMCNRT(_2»
WRCNP =WRCNNP*PIPADJ
WSCN =(EMCNl+EMCNX2)*WRCNNP/1000+EMCNXI*WRCNP/1000
WRCN =WSCN/EMCN*1000
WSCNP =EMCNX1*WRCNP/IOOO
LOG(XXP9)=C52A+C52B*LOG(EMP9)
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281:
WSP9 ==EMP9*WRP9/1000
EMMO =C60A+C60B*R.DPI8N+C60C*D61.77
EMM91 =EMMO+EMMX2
LOG(XXM91):i::'C61A+C61B*LOG(EMM9l)
XXM9 ==XXM91+XXMX2
EMMX ==EMMXl+EMMX2
EMM9 =EMMO+EMMX
G-18
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
282:LOG(WRM91/PDRPI)=C62A+C62F*D.80DEC6+C62B*LOG(WEUS/PDUSCPI)+
C62C*LOG(l+EMCNRT)+C62D*LOG(l+EMCNRT(-1»
283:WRM9P ==WRM91*PADJ
284:WSM9 ==(EMMO+EMMX2)*WRM91/1000+EMMX1*WRM9P/1000
285:WSM9P ==EMMX1*WRM9P/1000
286:WRM9 ==WSM9/EMM9*1000
287:XXTNT =C64A+C64B*R.DPI8X+C64D*R.DPI8X*R.DPI8X(-1)+C64C*
R.DPI8N+C64E*D71.73
288:LOG(EMTNT)=C65A+C65B*LOG(XXTNT)
289:EMTTOUR =PTOURT*EMTOUR
290:EMT91 =EMTNT+EMTTOUR
291:EMT9 =EMT91+EMT9X
292:XXT9 =XXTNT*(EMT9/EMTNT)
293:LOG(WRT9/PDRPI)=C66A+C66F*D.80DEC6+C66D*D61.76+C66B*LOG(WEUSI
PDUSCPI)+C66C*LOG(l+EMCNRT)+C66E*LOG(l+EMCNRT(-1»
294:WST9 ==EMT9*WRT9/1000.
295:XXCM =C68A+C68B*R.DPI8N(-1)+C68C*D61.74+C68D*WEALTH(-1)*POP(-1)
296:LOG (EMCM)=C69A+C69B*LOG(XXCM)
297:LOG(WRCM/PDRPI)=C70A+C70F*D.80DEC6+C70B*LOG(WEUS/PDUSCPI)+
C70C*LOG(l+EMCNRT(-2»+C70D*LOG(l+EMCNRT(-1»
298:WSCM ==EMCM*WRCM/1000.
299:XXPU =C72A+C72B*R.DPI8N(-1)+C72C*R.DPI8X+C72D*R.DPI8N(-2)
300:LOG(EMPU)=C73A+C73C*PIPE(-1)+C73B*LOG(XXPU)
301:LOG(WRPU/PDRPI)=C74A+C74F*D.80DEC6+C74B*LOG(WEUS/PDUSCPI)+
C74C*LOG(l+EMCNRT(-2»+C74D*LOG(l+EMCNRT(-1»
302:.WSPU ==EMPU*WRPU/1000.
303:XXDW =C71A+C71B*R.DPI8N+C71C*R.DPI8X+C71D*R.DPI8X(-1)*
R.DPI8X+C71E*WEALTH(-1)*POP(-1)
304:XXDRNT =C76A+C76B*R.DPI8N+C76C*R.DPI8X+C76D*R.DPI8N(-1)+
C76E*R.DPI8X(-1)
G-19
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Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
LOG(EMDW)=C77A+C7}B*LOG(XXDW)
LOG(EMDRNT)=C75A+C75B*LOG(XXDRNT)
EMDR =EMDRNT+EMDTOUR
LOG(WRDW/PDRPI)=C78A+C78F*D.80DEC6+C78B*LOG(WEUS/PDUSCPI)+
C78C*LOG(I+EMCNRT)+C78D*LOG(I+EMCNRT(-1»+C78E*LOG(I+EMCNRT(-2»
LOG(WRDR/PDRPI)=C79A+C79F*D.80DEC6+C79B*LOG(WEUS/PDUSCPI)+
(+C79D)*LOG(I+EMCNRT(-I»+C79E*LOG(I+EMCNRT(-2»
EMDTOUR =PTOURD*EMTOUR
EMD9 =EMDRNT+EMDW+EMDTOUR
312:WSD9 ==(EMDRNT+EMDTOUR}*WRDR/I000+EMDW*WRDW/I000
313:
314:
315:
316:~--~--~-~~_.~-~_.---
317:
318:
319:
321:
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323:
WRD9 =WSD9/EMD9*lOOO
XXD9 =(XXDW+XXDRNT)/(EMDW+EMDRNT)*EMD9
XXDR =XXD9-XXDW
LOG(EMFI)=C81A+C81B*LOG(XXFI)
LOG(WRFI/PDRPI)=C82A+C82F*D.80DEC6+C82B*LOG(WEUS/PDUSCPI)+
C82D*LOG(I+EMCNRT)+C82C*LOG(I+EMCNRT(~l»
WSFI ==EMFI*WRFI/I000.
XXSB =C83A+(+C83C)*R.DPI8X+C83D*R.DPI8X(-I)+C83E*
WEALTH(-I)*POP(-I).
LOG(EMS8NT)=C85A+C85B*LOG(XXS8NT)
LOG(EMSB)=C87A+C87B*LOG(XXSB)
324:
325:
LOG(WRSNB/PDRPI)=C86A+C86F*D.80DEC6+C86B*LOG(WEUS/PDUSCPI)+
C86C*LOG(I+EMCNRT)+C86D*LOG(I+EMCNRT(-I»+C86E*LOG(I+EMCNRT(-2»
LOG(WRSB/PDRPI)=C88A+C88F*D.80DEC6+C88E*D61.70+C88B*LOG(WEUSI
PDUSCPI)+C88C*LOG(I+EMCNRT)+C88D*LOG(I+EMCNRT(-I»+C88G*LOG
(l+EMCNRT(-2))
~G=20
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
326:EMSTOUR =PTOURS*EMTOUR
327:EMS91 =EMSB+EMS8NT+EMSTOUR
328:WSS91 ==(EMS8NT+EMSTOUR)*WRSNB/1000+EMSB*WRSB/1000
329:WSS9 ==WSS91+NCWS
330:EMS9 =EMS91+NCWS/(WRS9*1000)
331:WRS9 =WSS91/EMS91*1000
332:XXS9 =(XXS8NT+XXSB)/(EMS8NT+EMSB)*EMS9
333:EMGF =EMGM+EMGC
. 1II 334:LOG(XXGF)=C101A+C101B*LOG(EMGF)j
335:LOG (WRGC/PDRPI)=C89A+LOG(WEUS/PDUSCPI)
336:WRGM =WRGC*PCIVPY
337:WSGC =WRGC*EMGC/1000
338:WSGM =WRGM*EMGM/1000
339:WSGF ==WSGC+WSGM
340:WRGF =WSGF/EMGF*lOOO
341:LOG (WRGS/PDRPI)=IF C92A+C92F*D.80DEC6+C92B*LOG(WEUS/PDUSCPI)+
C92C*D61.73 LT LOG(WRGS(-l)/PDRPI(-l»THEN
LOG(WRGS(-l)/PDRPI(-l»ELSE C92A+C92F*D.80DEC6+C92B*
LOG(WEUS/PDUSCPI)+C92C*D61,73
342:EMGS =WSGS/WRGS*lOOO
343:LOG (WRGL/PDRPI)=IF C102A+C102F*D.80DEC6+C102D*D61.69+C102C*
LOG(1+EMCNRT)+C102B*LOG(WEUS/PDUSCPI)LT LOG(WRGL(-l)/PDRPI(-l»
THEN LOG(WRGL(-l)/PDRPI(-l»ELSE C102A+C102F*D.80DEC6+C102D*
D61.69+C102C*LOG(1+EMCNRT)+C102B*LOG(WEUS/PDUSCPI)
344:EMGL =WSGL/WRGL*1000
345:EMGA =EMGS+EMGL
346:WSGA =WSGS+WSGL
347:WRGA =WSGA/EMGA*lOOO
348:LOG (XXGA)=C104A+C104B*LOG(EMGA)
G-21
349:
350:
EMA9
XXA9
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
=EMAFISH+EMAGRI+PC39A*D77.00+PC39B*EMMX2
=C90A+C90B*(EMA9+EMPROFIS)
351:
352:
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LOG(WRA9/PDRPI)=C95A+C95F*D.80DEC6+C95B*LOG(WEUS/PDUSCPI)+
C95C*LOG(1+EMCNRT)+C95D*LOG(1+EMCNRT(-1»
WSA9 ==EMA9*WRA9/1000.
EM98 =EMP9+EMCN+EMM9+EMT9+EMCM+EMPU+EMD9+EMFI+EMS9+
EMGF+EMGA+EMA9
354:EM9~=EM98-EMGM
355:
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357:
358:
359:
WS98 =(WRP9*EMP9+WRCN*EMCN+WRM9*EMM9+WRT9*EMT9+WRCM*
EMCM+WRPU*EMPU+WRD9*EMD9+WRFI*EMFI+WRS9*EMS9+WRGF*
EMGF+WRGA*EMGA+WRA9*EMA9)11000.
WS97 =WS98-WSGM
WR98 =WS98*1000/EM98
WR97 ==WS97*1000/EM97
LOG(EMPR01)=C100A+CIOOC*D61.66+C100B*LOG(EM98)
360:EMPROFIS =PFISH1*EMFISH
361:
362:
363:
EMAFISH =(1-PFISH1)*EMFISH
EMPRO =EMPR01+EMPROFIS
EM99 ==EM98+EMPRO
365:EMX =EMCNX+EMP9
366:'EMOCSX ==EMP9+EMT9X+EMCNX1+EMCNX2+EMMXl
367:
368:
369:
EMCU
WRCU
EMNC
--EMCM+EMPU
--(WSCM+WSPU)/EMCU*1000
--EMS9-EMS91
370:
371:
EMTCU
EMSUP
=EMT9+EMCM+EMPU
=EMD9+EMFI+EMS9
372:EMSP =EMTCU+EMSUP
i
I I.
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
373:EMG9 --EMGF+EMGA
374:EMNR --EM99-EMSP-EMG9-EMCN-EMP9
37S:EMNS --EM99-EMSP-EMG9
376:~OG(EMTOUR)=PTOURB+PTOURE*LOG(TOURIST)
377:XX98 =XXP9+XXCN+XXM9+XXT9+XXCM+XXPU+XXD9+XXFI+XXS9+
XXGF+XXGA+XXA9
Population Module
Civilian Non-Native Population
378:CM2 --G2*SM2*CNNPM2(-1)+(l-G1)*CNNPMl(-1)*SMl
379:CF2 --G2*SF2*CNNPF2(-1)+(1-G1)*CNNPF1(-1)*SF1
380:CM3 --G3*SM3*CNNPM3(-1)+(1-G2)*CNNPM2(-1)*SM2
381:CF3 --G3*SF3*CNNPF3(-1)+(1-G2)*CNNPF2(-1)*SF2
382:CM4 --G4*SM4*CNNPM4(-1)+(1-G3)*CNNPM3(-1)*SM3
383:CF4 --G4*SF4*CNNPF4(-1)+(1-G3)*CNNPF3(-1)*SF3
384:CMS --GS*SMS*CNNPMS (-1)+(1-G4)*CNNPM4 ('''':1)*SM4
38S:CFS --GS*SFS*CNNPFS(-1)+(1-G4)*CNNPF4(-1)*SF4
386:CM6 --G6*SM6*CNNPM6(-1)+(1-GS)*CNNPMS(-1)*SMS
387:CF6 --G6*SF6*CNNPF6(-1)+(1-GS)*CNNPFS(-1)*SFS
388:CM7 --G7*SM7*CNNPM7(-1)+(1-G6)*CNNPM6(-1)*SM6
389:CF7 --G7*SF7*CNNPF7(-1)+(1-G6)*CNNPF6(-1)*SF6
390:CM8 --G8*SM8*CNNPM8(-1)+(1-G7)*CNNPM7(-1)*SM7
391:CF8 --G8*SF8*CNNPF8(-1)+(1-G7)*CNNPF7(-1)*SF7
392:CM9 --G9*SM9*CNNPM9(-1)+(1-G8)*CNNPM8(-1)*SM8
393:CF9 --G9*SF9*CNNPF9(-1)+(1-G8)*CNNPF8(-1)*SF8
394:CMlO --G10*SM10*CNNPM10(-1)+(1-G9)*CNNPM9(-1)*SM9
39S:CF10 --G10*SF10*CNNPF10(-1)+(1-G9)*CNNPF9(-1)*SF9
G-23
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
=CK12*(1+OEMM12)+MIGIN*MM12
=CKll*(1+OEMMll)+MIGIN*MM1l
=CFll*(l+OEMFll)+KIGIN*MFll
--BTHTOT-CMl-CFl
--Gll*SMll*CNNPMll(-1)+(1-GlO)*CNNPMlO(-1)*SMI0
--G12*SM12*CNNPM12(-1)+(1-Gll)*CNNPMll(-1)*SMll
--Gll*SFll*CNNPFll(-l)+(l-GlO)*CNNPFlO(-l)*SFlO
--G13*SM13*CNNPM13(-1)+(1-G12)*CNNPM12(-1)*SM12
--G14*SM14*CNNPM14(-1)+(1-G13)*CNNPM13(-1)*SM13
--G13*SF13*CNNPF13(-1)+(1-G12)*CNNPF12(-1)*SF12
--Gls*SMls*CNNPKls(-1)+(1-G14)*CNNPM14(-1)*SM14
--G12*SF12*CNNPF12(-1)+(1-Gll)*CNNPFll(-1)*SFll
--G1s*SFls*CNNPFls(-1)+(1-G14)*CNNPFI4(-I)*SF14
--G14*SF14*CNNPF14(-1)+(1-G13)*CNNPF13(-1)*SF13
CFU
CMU
CM12
CM14
CF14
CF13
CF12
CM13
CMls
CMl ==SEXDIV*BTHTOT*SURINFM
BTHTOT ==CF4*FERT4+CFs*FERTs+CF6*FERT6+CF7*FERT7+CF8*FERT8+
CF9*FERT9+CFlO*FERTlO+CFll*FERTll-BADD
CF1s
DTHINF
CNNPKlO-=.CMlO~(l+OEMMlO)+MIGIN*MMI0
NATINC ==BTHTOT-DTHTOT
CNNPFU
CNNPFI0 =CFIO*(1+0EMF10)+MIGIN1<MF-IO·
CNNPKU
CNNPM12
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\
J
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}
)
I
~)
--J
)
)
J
DTHTOT --DTHINF+CKls(-1)*(1-SMls)+CFls(-1)*(1-SFls)+CM14(-1)*
(1-SM14)+CF14(-1)*(1-SF14)+CM13(-1)*(1-SM13)+CF13(-1)*(1-SFI3)+1
CM12 (-1)*(1-SK12)+CF12(-1)*(1-SF12 )+CMll(-l)*(l-SMU)+CFU(-1)*J
(1-SFll)+CMlO(-1)*(I-SKlO)+CFlO(-1)*(1-SFI0)+CM9(-1)*(1-SM9)+
.--------.------.---.-.--·~~~-~;~~·:·~·~;~~~·~;~::-~;i-~·:··~~;~::-~-;~~:-~·;~·~·:-~·i;~·~:-~-~~:~~;i-~-:-~·i;~:~-~~--.----..l
CFS-(-1-)-*-(-1-SFS-)-f'CM4-(-r)-*-(-1-Sl-i4-)-f'CF4-(=1-)-*·(-1-SF4-)-::t=CM3-(·=1-)-*-(-l-SM3-)-:t---------'-
CF3(-1)*(1-SF3)+CK2(-1)*(1-SK2)+CF2(-1)*(1-SF2)+CMl(-1)*(I-SMl)+J
CFl(-l)*(l-SFl)l
\
.~
J
~
l··
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
417:CNNPF12 =CF12*(l+0EMFl2)+MIGIN*MF12
418:CNNPMl3 =CM13*(l+OEMM13)+MIGIN*MM13
419:CNNPF13 =CF13*(l+0EMF13)+MIGIN*MF13
420:CNNPMl4 =CM14*(l+0EMM14)+MIGIN*MM14
421:CNNPF14 =CF14*(l+OEMF14)+MIGIN*MF14
422:CNNPM15 =CM15*(1+0EMM15)+MIGIN*MM15
423:CNNPF15 =CF15*(1+0EMF15)+MIGIN*MF15
424:CNNPM1 =CM1*(1+0EMM1)+MIGIN*MM1
425:CNNPF1 =CF1*(1+0EMF1)+MIGIN*MF1
426:CNNPM2 =CM2*(1+0EMM2)+MIGIN*MM2
427:CNNPF2 =CF2*(1+0EMF2)+MIGIN*MF2
428:CNNPM3 =CM3*(1+0EMM3)+MIGIN*MM3
429:CNNPF3 =CF3*(1+0EMF3)+MIGIN*MF3
430:CNNPM4 =CM4*(1+0EMM4)+MIGIN*MM4
431:CNNPF4 =CF4*(1+0EMF4)+MIGIN*MF4
432:CNNPM5 =CM5*(1+0EMM5)+MIGIN*MM5
433:CNNPF5 =CF5*(1+0EMF5)+MIGIN*MF5
434:CNNPM6 =CM6*(1+0EMM6)+MIGIN*MM6
435:CNNPF6 =CF6*(1+0EMF6)+MIGIN*MF6
436:CNNPM7 =CM7*(1+0EMM7)+MIGIN*MM7
437:CNNPF7 =CF7*(1+0EMF7)+MIGIN*MF7
438:CNNPM8 =CM8*(1+0EMM8)+MIGIN*MM8
439:CNNPF8 =CF8*(1+0EMF8)+MIGIN*MF8
440:CNNPM9 =CM9*(1+0EMM9)+MIGIN*MM9
441:CNNPF9 =CF9*(1+0EMF9)+MIGIN*MF9
G-25
G2*NSF2*NATPF2(-1)+(1-G1)*NATPFl(-1)*NSFl
G3*NSF3*NATPF3(-1)+(1-G2)*NATPF2(-1)*NSF2
G3*NSM3*NATPM3(-1)+(1-G2)*NATPM2(-1)*NSM2
G2*NSM2*NATPM2(-1)+(1-Gl)*NATPMl(-1)*NSM1
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
442:CNNTOT ==CNNPM15+CNNPF15+CNNPM14+CNNPF14+CNNPM13+CNNPF13+
CNNPM12+CNNPF12+CNNPM11+CNNPFll+CNNPMlO+CNNPFlO+CNNPM9+CNNPF9+
CNNPM8+CNNPF8+CNNPM7+CNNPF7+CNNPM6+CNNPF6+CNNPM5+CNNPF5+CNNPM4+
CNNPF4+CNNPM3+CNNPF3+CNNPM2+CNNPF2+CNNPMl+CNNPFl
Native Population
443:NCM2 --
444:NCF2 --
445:NCM3 --
446:NCF3 --
447:NCM4 ==G4*NSM4*NATPM4(-1)+(1-G3)*NATPM3(-1)*NSM3
==G12*NSM12*NATPM12(-1)+(1-Gll)*NATPMll(-1)*NSM11
==Gll*NSFll*NATPFll(-l)+(l-GlO)*NATPFlO(-l)*NSFlO
==Gll*NSMll*NATPM11(-1)+(1-G10)*NATPMlO(-1)*NSMlO
l
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IG-26
G6*NSM6*NATPM6(-1)+(1-G5)*NATPM5(-1)*NSM5
G5*NSM5*NATPM5(-1)+(1-G4)*NATPM4(-1)*NSM4
G5*NSF5*NATPF5(-1)+(1-G4)*NATPF4(-1)*NSF4
G4*NSF4*NATPF4(-1)+(1-G3)*NATPF3(-1)*NSF3
G7*NSM7*NATPM7(-1)+(1-G6)*NATPM6(-1)*NSM6
G7*NSF7*NATPF7(-1)+(1-G6)*NATPF6(-1)*NSF6
G6*NSF6*NATPF6(-1)+(1-G5)*NATPF5(-1)*NSF5
==GIO*NSMIO*NATPMIO(-1)+(1-G9)*NATPM9(-1)*NSM9
==G12*NSF12*NATPF12(-1)+(1-Gll)*NATPFll(-1)*NSFll
==GIO*NSFIO*NATPFIO(-1)+(1-G9)*NATPF9(-1)*NSF9
==G9*NSM9*NATPM9(-1)+(1-G8)*NATPM8(-1)*NSM8
==G9*NSF9*NATPF9(-1)+(l-G8)*NATPF8(-1)*NSF8
448:NCF4 --
449:NCM5 --
450:NCF5 --
451:NCM6 --
452:NCF6 --
453:NCM7 --
454:NCF7 --
457:NCM9
458:NCF9
459:NCMIO
460:NCFIO
461:NCMll
462:NCFll
463:NCM12
464:NCF12
455:NCM8 ==GS*NSMS*NATPM8(-1)+(1-G7)*NATPM7(-1)*NSM7
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
465:NCM13 --G13*NSM13*NATPM13(-1)+(1-G12)*NATPM12(-1)*NSM12
466:NCF13 --G13*NSF13*NATPF13(-l)+(l-G12)*NATPF12(-1)*NSF12
467:NCM14 ==G14*NSM14*NATPM14(-1)+(1-G13)*NATPM13(-1)*NSM13
468:NCF14 ==G14*NSF14*NATPF14(-1)+(1-G13)*NATPF13(-1)*NSF13
469:NCM15 ==G15*NSM15*NATPM15(-1)+(1-G14)*NATPM14(-1)*NSM14
470:NCF15 ==G15*NSF15*NATPF15(-1)+(1-G14)*NATPF14(-1)*NSF14
471:NBTHTOT ==NCF4*NFERT4+NCF5*NFERT5+NCF6*NFERT6+NCF7*NFERT7+
NCF8*NFERT8+NCF9*NFERT9+NCFIO*NFERTIO+NCF11*NFERT11+BADD
472:NCMl ==NSEXDIV*NBTHTOT*NSURINFM
473:NCF1 ==(l-NSEXDIV)*NBTHTOT*NSURINFF
474:NATPMl =NCMl*(l+NMMl)
475:NATPF1 =NCF1*(l+NMFl)
476:NATPM2 =NCM2*(1+NMM2)
477:NATPF2 =NCF2*(1+NMF2)
478:NATPM3 =NCM3*(l+NMM3)
479:NATPF3 =NCF3*(l+NMF3)
480:NATPM4 =NCM4*(l+NMM4)
481:NATPF4 =NCF4*(l+NMF4)
482:NATPM5 =NCM5*(1+NMM5)
483:NATPF5 =NCF5*(1+NMF5)
484:NATPM6 =NCM6*(l+NMM6)
485:NATPF6 =NCF6*(l+NMF6)
486:NATPM7 =NCM7*(l+NMM7)
487:NATPF7 =NCF7*(l+NMF7)
488:NATPM8 =NCM8*(l+NMM8)
489:NATPF8 =NCF8*(l+NMF8)
G-27
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
I
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NATTOT ==NATPM15+NATPF15+NATPM14+NATPF14+NATPM13+NATPF13+
NATPM12+NATPF12+NATPM11+NATPF11+NATPM10+NATPF10+NATPM9+NATPF9+
NATPM8+NATPF8+NATPM7+NATPF}+NATPM6+NATPF6+NATPM5+NATPF5+NATPM4+
NATPF4+NATPM3+NATPF3+NATPM2+NATPF2+NATPM1+NATPF1
NNATINC ==NBTHTOT-NDTHTOT
POPNE =POPNE(-l)*NATTOT/NATTOT(-l}
508:
506:
507:
490:NATPM9 =NCM9*(1+NMM9}
491:NATPF9 =NCF9*<l+NMF9}
492:NATPM10 =NCM10*(1+NMM10}
493:NATPF10 =NCF10*(1+NMF10}
494:NATPMll =NCM11*(1+NMM11}
495:NATPFll =NCF11*(1+NMF11}
496:NATPM12 =NCM12*(1+NMM12}
497:NATPF12 =NCF12*(1+NMF12}
498:NATPM13 =NCM13*(1+NMM13}
499:NATPF13 =NCF13*<l+NMF13}
500:NATPM14 =NCM14*(1+NMM14}
501:NATPF14 =NCF14*(1+NMF14}
502:NATPM15 =NCM15*(1+NMM15}
_._~--.--.-_...~~~..~•..--.---
503:NATPF15 =NCF15*(1+NMF15}
504:NDTHINF ==NBTHTOT-NCM1-NCFl
505:NDTHTOT ==NDTHINF+NCM15(-1}*(1-NSM15}+NCF15(-1}*(1-NSF15}+
NCM14(-1}*(1-NSM14}+NCF14(-1}*(1-NSF14}+NCM13(-1}*(1-NSM13}+
NCF13(-1}*(1-NSF13}+NCM12(-1}*(1-NSM12}+NCF12(-1}*(1-NSF12}+
NCM11(-1}*(1-NSM11}+NCF11(-1}*(1-NSF11}+NCM10(-1}*(1-NSM10}+---~_·---·-·------·--------------NGF-l.O(--l-}-*(l-NSF-lO)·+NCM9·(--1)·*·(-l-NSM9-)-+NGF9·(---l-}·*·(-];-=NSF9-)-+-----._..-_.j.
------------.~---NCM8.(--.1-}-~(-1-NSM8l+NCF'8·(--1-}·~·(-1-NSF'8l+NCM-7-(·-l-}-:A:·(-1-NSM-7-}+NCF-7-(·-1-}-*-·----·---:.....
(1-NSF7}+NCM6(-1}*(1-NSM6}+NCF6(-1}*(1-NSF6}+NCM5(-1)*(1-NSM5)+
NCF5(-1}*(1-NSF5}+NCM4(-1)*(1-NSM4)+NCF4(-1}:A:(1-NSF4}+NCM3(-1}*
(1-NSM3}+NCF3(-1)*(1-NSF3)+NCM2(-1)*(1-NSM2)+NCF2(-1)*(1-NSF2)+
NCM1(-1)*(1-NSMl)+NCF1(-1):A:(1-NSF1)
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
509:MIGOUT =OEMM1*CM1+0EMM2*CM2+0EMM3*CM3+0EMM4*CM4+0EMM5*CM5+
OEMM6*CM6+0EMM7*CM7+0EMM8*CMB+OEMM9*CM9+0EMM10*CM10+0EMM11*
CM11+0EMMI2*CMI2+0EMM13*CMI3+0EMMI4*CM14+0EMMI5*CMI5+0EMFI*
CF1+0EMF2*CF2+0EMF3*CF3+0EMF4*CF4+0EMF5*CF5+0EMF6*CF6+0EMF7*
CF7+0EMFB*CF8+0EMF9*CF9+0EMFI0*CFI0+0EMFII*CFII+0EMFI2*CFI2+
OEMFI3*CFI3+0EMFI4*CFI4+0EMFI5*CFI5+NMM1*NCM1+NMM2*NCM2+NMM3*
NCM3+NMM4*NCM4+NMM5*NCM5+NMM6*NCM6+NMM7*NCM7+NMMB*NCMB+NMM9*
NCM9+NMMI0*NCMI0+NMMII*NCMII+NMMI2*NCMI2+NMMI3*NCM13+NMM14*
NCMI4+NMMI5*NCMI5+NMFl*NCFl+NMF2*NCF2+NMF3*NCF3+NMF4*NCF4+
NMF5*NCF5+NMF6*NCF6+NMF7*NCF7+NMFB*NCFB+NMF9*NCF9+NMFI0*NCFI0+
NMFll*NCFll+NMFI2*NCFI2+NMFI3*NCFI3+NMFI4*NCF14+NMFI5*NCFI5
510:MIGIN =POPMIG-MIGOUT
511:POPM =EMGM/MILRAT
512:MILPCT =POPM/AFTOT
513:POP =CNNTOT+NATTOT+MILPCT*(AFTOT+MDTOT)
514:POPC =POP-PO PM
Mili tary Population
515:POPMl --CNNPMl+MILPCT*MILMI+NATPM1
516:POPM2 --CNNPM2+MILPCT*MILM2+NATPM2
517:POPM3 --CNNPM3+MILPCT*MILM3+NATPM3
51B:.POPM4 --CNNPM4+MILPCT*MILM4+NATPM4
519:POPM5 --CNNPM5+MILPCT*MILM5+NATPM5
520:POPM6 --CNNPM6+MILPCT*MILM6+NATPM6
521:POPM7 --CNNPM7+MILPCT*MILM7+NATPM7
522:POPM8 --CNNPMB+MILPCT*MILM8+NATPMB
523:POPM9 --CNNPM9+MILPCT*MILM9+NATPM9
524:POPM10 --CNNPM10+MILPCt*MILM10+NATPM10
525:POPM11 --CNNPM11+MILPCT*MILM11+NATPM11
526:POPM12 --CNNPM12+MILPCT*MILM12+NATPM12
527:POPM13 --CNNPMI3+MILPCT*MILM13+NATPM13
G-29
528:POPM14 --CNNPM14+MILPCT*MILM14+NATPM14
529:POPM15 --CNNPM15+MILPCT*MILM15+NATPM15
530:POPF1 --CNNPF1+MILPCT*MILF1+NATPF1
531:POPF2 --CNNPF2+MILPCT*MILF2+NATPF2
532:POPF3 --CNNPF3+MILPCT*MILF3+NATPF3
533:POPF4 --CNNPF4+MILPCT*MILF4+NATPF4
534:POPF5 --CNNPF5+MILPCT*MILF5+NATPF5
535:POPF6 --CNNPF6+MILPCT*MILF6+NATPF6
536:POPF7 --CNNPF7+MILPCT*MILF7+NATPF7
537:POPF8 --CNNPF8+MILPCT*MILF8+NATPF8
538:POPF9 --CNNPF9+MILPCT*MILF9+NATPF9
539:POPF10 --CNNPF10+MILPCT*MILF10+NATPF10
540:POPFll ===CNNPF11+MILPCT*MILFl1+NATPFl1
_.._-------"-_._-----------~_.~-~._-_._._--_._.__.....__...._---...~-_.._.__._._~.....__.----_.._~_._-_•..,---~_.._.._.._._-_.
541:POPF12 --CNNPF12+MILPCT*MILF12+NATPF12
542:POPFl3 --CNNPF13+MILPCT*MILF13+NATPF13
543:POPF14 ==CNNPF14+MILPCT*MILF14+NATPF14
544:POPF15 --CNNPF15+MILPCT*MILF15+NATPF15
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
546:DTOT ==DTHTOT+NDTHTOT
547:POPNI9 ==BTOT-DTOT
548:NCBR ==NBTHTOT/NATTOT*1000
549:NCDR ==NDTHTOT/NATTOT*1000
550:CBR --BTHTOT/CNNTOT*1000
551:CDR --DTHTOT/CNNTOT*1000
552:BCRUDE --BTOT/(CNNTOT+NATTOT)*1000
553:DCRUDE ==DTOT/(CNNTOT+NATTOT)*1000
G-30
I \,-1
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
554:POPSKUL --POPM3+POPM4+POPM5+POPF3+POPF4+POPF5
555:POPKIDS --POPSKUL+POPM1+POPM2+POPF1+POPF2-POPM5-POPF5
556:POPGER =POPM15+POPF15
557:POPADS --POP-POPKIDS-POPGER
558:POP.AD --POP ADS/POP
559:POP.KID --POPKIDS/POP
560:POP.GER --POPGER/POP
561:.POP.MIL ==MILPCT*(AFTOT+MDTOT)/POP
562:POP.NAT ==NATTOT/POP
563:POP.CIV ==CNNTOT/POP
564:PLFDOMC ==CNNPM5+CNNPM6+CNNPM7+CNNPM8+CNNPM9+CNNPM10+
CNNPM11+11+CNNPM12+CNNPM13+CNNPM14+CNNPF5+CNNPF6+CNNPF7+
CNNPF8+CNNPF9+CNNPF10+CNNPF11+CNNPF12+CNNPF13+CNNPF14
565:PLFDOMN ==NATPM5+NATPM6+NATPM7+NATPM8+NATPM9+NATPM10+
NATPM11+NATPM12+NATPM13+NATPM14+NATPF5+NATPF6+NATPF7
+NATPF8+NATPF9+NATPF10+NATPF11+NATPF12+NATPF13+NATPF14
566:PLFDOMM ==MILPCT*(MILM5+MILM6+MILM7+MILM8+MILM9+MILM10+
MILM:1+MILM12+MILM13+MILM14+MILF5+MILF6+MILF7+MILF8+MILF9+
MILF10+MILF11+MILF12+MILF13+MILF14-AFTOT'>
567:PLFD9 ==PLFDOMC+PLFDOMN+PLFDOMM
568:LF ==LFPART*PLFD9
569:UNEMP ==LF-EM96
570:U.AK.US ==UNEMP/LF/UUS
571:DELEMP ==EM96-EM96(-1)
572:WR.AK.US ==LOG(R.WR97)-LOG(WEUS*100/PDUSCPI)-(LOG(R.WR97(-1»-
LOG'(WEUS(-1)*100/PDUSCPI(-l»)
573:POPMIG =CMIG1+CMIG2*1/U.AK.US(-1)+CMIG3*WR.AK.US(-l)+
CMIG4*DELEMP
G-31
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Household Module
574:CHHM4 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE CNNPM4*(1-CPGQM4}*
(HHRM4+RCM4/TP*(YR-1980})
575:NHHM4 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE NATPM4*(l-NPGQM4}*
(NHHRM4+NRCM4/NTP*(YR-1980})
576:HHM4 ==CHHM4+NHHM4
577:CHHM5 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE CNNPM5*(1-CPGQM5}*
(HHRM5+RCM5/TP*(YR-1980})
578:NHHM5 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE NATPM5*(1-NPGQM5}*
(NHHRM5+NRCM5/NTP*(YR-1980})
579:HHM5 ==CHHM5+NHHM5+MHHM5*MILPCT
580:CHHM6 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE CNNPM6*(1-CPGQM6}*
(HHRM6+RCM6/TP*(YR-1980})
581:NHHM6 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE NATPM6*(1-NPGQM6}*
(NHHRM6+NRCM6/NTP*(YR-1980})
582:HHM6 ==CHHM6+NHHM6+MHHM6*MILPCT
583:CHHM7 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE CNNPM7*(1-CPGQM7}*
(HHRM7+RCM7/TP*(YR-1980})
584:NHHM7 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE NATPM7*(1-NPGQM7}*
(NHHRM7+NRCM7/NTP*(YR-1980})
-.------------
585:
586:
587:
588:
.589:
590:
591:
HHM7 ==CHHM7+NHHM7+MHHM7*MILPCT
CHHM8 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE CNNPM8*(1-CPGQM8}*
(HHRM8+RCM8/TP*(YR~1980})
NHHM8 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE NATPM8*(1-NPGQM8}*
(NHHRM8+NRCM8/NTP*(YR-1980})
HHM8 ==CHHM8+NHHM8+MHHM8*MILPCT
CHHM9 ==IF YRLT 1980 THEN 1.ELSE CNNPM9*(l-CPGQM9 )*
(HHRM9+RCM9/TP*(YR-1980})
NHHM9 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE NATPM9*(1-NPGQM9)*
(NHHRM9+NRCM9/NTP*(YR-1980})
HHM9 ==CHHM9+NHHM9+MHHM9*MILPCT
G-32
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Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
592:CHHM10 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE CNNPM10*(1-CPGQM10)*
(HHRM10+RCM10/TP*(YR-1980»
593:NHHM10 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE NATPM10*(1-NPGQM10)*
(NHHRM10+NRCM10/NTP*(YR-1980»
594:HHM10 ==CHHM10+NHHM10+MHHM10*MILPCT
595:CHHMll ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE CNNPM11*(1-CPGQM11)*
(HHRM11+RCM11/TP*(YR-1980»
596:NHHM11 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE NATPM11*(1-NPGQM11)*
(NHHRM11+NRCM11/NTP*(YR-1980»
597:HHM11 ==CHHM11+NHHM11+MHHM11*MILPCT
598:CHHM12 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE CNNPM12*(1-CPGQM12)*
(HHRM12+RCM12/TP*(YR-1980»
599:NHHM12 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE NATPM12*(1-NPGQM12)*
(NHHRM12+NRCM12/NTP*(YR-1980»
600:HHM12 ==CHHM12+NHHM12+MHHM12*MILPCT
601:CHHM13 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE CNNPM13*(1-CPGQM13)*
(HHRM13+RCM13/TP*(YR-1980»
602:NHHM13 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE NATPM13*(1-NPGQM13)*
(NHHRM13+NRCM13/NTP*(YR-1980»
603:HHM13 ==CHHM13+NHHM13+MHHM13*MILPCT
604:CHHM14 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE CNNPM14*(1-CPGQM14)*
(HHRM14+RCM14/TP*(YR-1980»
605:NHHM14 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE NATPM14*(1-NPGQM14)*
(NHHRM14+NRCM14/NTP*(YR-1980»
606:HHM14 ==CHHM14+NHHM14+MHHM14*MILPCT
607:CHHM15 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE CNNPM15*(1-CPGQM15)*
(HHRM15+RCM15/TP*(YR-1980»
608:NHHM15 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE NATPM15*(1-NPGQM15)*
(NHHRM15+NRCM15/NTP*(YR-1980»
609:HHM15 ==CHHM15+NHHM15+MHHM15*MILPCT
610:CHHF4 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE CNNPF4*(1-CPGQF4)*
(HHRF4+RCF4/TP*(YR-1980»
G-33
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
611:NHHF4 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE NATPF4*(1-NPGQF4)*
(NHHRF4+NRCF4/NTP*(YR-1980»
612:HHF4 ==CHHF4+NHHF4
613:CHHF5 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE CNNPF5*(1-CPGQF5)*
(HHRF5+RCF5/TP*(YR-1980»
614:NHHF5 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE NATPF5*(1-NPGQF5)*
(NHHRF5+NRCF5/NTP*(YR-1980»
615:HHF5 ==CHHF5+NHHF5+MHHF5*MILPCT
616:CHHF6 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE CNNPF6*(1-CPGQF6)*
(HHRF6+RCF6/TP*(YR-1980»
617:NHHF6 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE NATPF6*(1-NPGQF6)*
(NHHRF6+NRCF6/NTP*(YR-1980»
618:HHF6 ==CHHF6+NHHF6+MHHF6*MILPCT
619:CHHF7 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE CNNPF7*(1-CPGQF7)*
(HHRF7+RCF7/TP*(YR-1980»
620:NHHF7 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE
~__.~~~__~__~__.__NA'1'I>Ji7*(1-NPGQF1>'~JNHHRFhNRCF7INTP*(YR-1980»
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621:HHF7 ==CHHF7+NHHF7+MHHF7*MILPCT
622:CHHF8 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE CNN~F8~(1-CPGQF8)*
(HHRF8+RCF8/TP*(YR-1980»
623:NHHF8 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE NATPF8*(1-NPGQF8)*
(NHHRF8+NRCF8/NTP*(YR-1980»
6-24-:-HHF8--==--CHHF8TNHHF8TMHHF8*Mn:;PCT-~------~---~----
625:CHHF9 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE CNNPF9*(1-CPGQF9)*
(HHRF9+RCF9/TP*(YR-1980»
626:NHHF9 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE NATPF9*(1-NPGQF9)*
(NHHRF9+NRCF9/NTP*(YR-1980»
627:HHF9 ==CHHF9+NHflF9+MHHF9*MILPCT
628:CHHF10 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE CNNPF10*(1-CPGQFIO)*
(HHRF10+RCF10/TP*(YR-1980»
629:NHHF10 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE NATPF10*(1-NPGQF10)*
(NHHRF10+NRCF10/NTP*(YR-1980»
)
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Institute of Social
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MAP Documentation
May 1983
630:HHF10 ==CHHF10+NHHF10+MHHF10*MILPCT
631:CHHF11 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE CNNPF11*(1-CPGQF11)*
(HHRF11+RCF11/TP*(YR-1980»
632:NHHF11 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE NATPF11*(1~NPGQF11)*
(NHHRF11+NRCF11/NTP*(YR-1980»
633:HHF11 ==CHHF11+NHHF11+MHHF11*MILPCT
634:CHHF12 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE CNNPF12*(1-CPGQF12)*
(HHRF12+RCF12/TP*(YR-1980»
63S:NHHF12 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE NATPF12*(1-NPGQF12)*
(NHHRF12+NRCF12/NTP*(YR-1980»
636:HHF12 ==CHHF12+NHHF12+MHHF12*MILPCT
637:CHHF13 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE CNNPF13*(1-CPGQF13)*
(HHRF13+RCF13/TP*(YR-1980»
638:NHHF13 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE NATPF13*(1-NPGQF13)*
(NHHRF13+NRCF13/NTP*(YR-1980»
639:HHF13 ==CHHF13+NHHF13+MHHF13*MILPCT
640:CHHF14 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE CNNPF14*(1-CPGQF14)*
(HHRF14+RCF14/TP*(YR-1980»
641:NHHF14 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE NATPF14*(1-NPGQF14)*
(NHHRF14+NRCF14/NTP*(YR-1980»
642:HHF14 ==CHHF14+NHHF14+MHHF14*MILPCT
643:CHHF1S ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE CNNPF1S*(1-CPGQF1S)*
(HHRF1S+RCF1S/TP*(YR-1980»
644:NHHF1S ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE NATPF1S*(1-NPGQF1S)*
(NHHRF1S+NRCF1S/NTP*(YR-1980»
64S:HHF1S ==CHHF1S+NHHF1S+MHHF1S*MILPCT
646:HH ==HHM4+HHMS+HHM6+HHM7+HHM8+HHM9+HHM10+HHM11+HHM12+HHM13+
HHM14+HHM1S+HHF4+HHFS+HHF6+HHF7+HHF8+HHF9+HHF10+HHF11+HHF12+
HHF13+HHF14+HHF1S
G-3S
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
647:POPCGQ ==CNNPM1*CPGQMl+CNNPM2*CPGQM2+CNNPM3*CPGQM~+CNNPM4*
CPGQM4+CNNPM5*CPGQM5+CNNPM6*CPGQM6+CNNPM7*CPGQM7+CNNPM8*
CPGQM8+CNNPM9*CPGQM9+CNNPMIO*CPGQMIO+CNNPM11*CPGQM11+CNNPM12*
CPGQM12+CNNPM13*CPGQM13+CNNPM14*CPGQM14+CNNPM15*CPGQMl5+CNNPFl*
CPGQFl+CNNPF2*CPGQF2+CNNPF3*CPGQF3+CNNPF4*CPGQF4+CNNPF5*CPGQF5+
CNNPF6*CPGQF6+CNNPF7*CPGQF7+CNNPF8*CPGQF8+CNNPF9*CPGQF9+CNNPFIO*
CPGQFlO+CNNPFll*CPGQFll+CNNPF12*CPGQF12+CNNPF13*CPGQFl3+CNNPF14*
CPGQF14+CNNPF15*CPGQF15
648:POPNGQ ==NATPM1*NPGQM1+NATPM2*NPGQM2+NATPM3*NPGQM3+NATPM4*
NPGQM4+NATPM5*NPGQM5+NATPM6*NPGQM6+NATPM7*NPGQM7+NATPM8*NPGQM8+
NATPM9*NPGQM9+NATPMIO*NPGQM10+NATPMl1*NPGQMl1+NATPM12*NPGQM12+
NATPM13*NPGQM13+NATPM14*NPGQM14+NATPM15*NPGQM15+NATPF1*NPGQF1+
NATPF2*NPGQF2+NATPF3*NPGQF3+NATPF4*NPGQF4+NATPF5*NPGQF5+NATPF6*
NPGQI?6+NATPF7*NPGQF7+NATPF8*NPGQF8+NATPF9*NPGQF9+NATPF10*
NPGQFIO+NATPF1l*NPGQF11+NATPF12*NPGQF12+NATPF13*NPGQF13+
NATPF14*NPGQF14+NATPF15*NPGQF15
649:HHC ==CHHM4+CHHM5+CHHM6+CHHM7+CHHM8tCHHM9+CHHM10+CHHMll+
CHHM12+CHHM13+CHHM14+CHHM15+CHHF4+CHHF5+CHHF6+CHHF7+CHHF8+
CHHF9+CHHF10+CHHFl1+CHHF12+CHHF13+CHHF14+CHHF15
650:HHN ==NHHM4+NHHM5+NHHM6+NHHM7+NHHM8+NHHM9+NHHM10+NHHM1l+
NHHM12+NHHM13+NHHM14+NHHM15+NHHF4+NHHF5+NHHF6+NHHF7+NHHF8+
NHHF9+NHHF10+NHHFll+NHHF12+NHHF13+NHHF14+NHHF15
651:HHM ==MILPCT*(MHHM5+MHHM6+MHHM7+MHHM8+MHHM9+MHHM10+MHHM1l+
MHHM12+MHHM13+MHHM14+MHHM15+MHHF5+MHHF6+MHHF7+MHHF8+MHHF9+
MHHF10+MHHF11+MHHF12+MHHF13+MHHF14+MHHF15)
-652:HHSIZEN --(NATTOT-POPNGQ)/HHN
653:HHSIZEC --(CNNTOT-POPCGQ)/HHC
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655:POPGQ ==POPNGQ+POPCGQ+POPMGQ
656:HH24 ==HHF4~HHF5+HHF6+HHM4+HHM5+HHM6
657:HH25.29 --HHF7+HHM7
658:HH30.54 --HHF8+HHF9+HHFIO+HHFll+HHF12+HHM8+HHM9+
.HHM10+HHMl1+HHM12··
659:HH55 ==HHF13+HHF14+HHF15+HHM13+HHM14+HHM15
,]
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MAP Documentation
May 1983
[1 Native Ec6nomic Activity
660:EMNAT ==EMNATX
661:RNAT ==RNATX
662:EMRATE =EM96/POPC
663:EMRATNI =(1+PERNA1*(EMRATE-EMRATE(-1»/EMRATE(-1»*EMRATN1(-1)+
PERNA2*(EMRATE-EMRATNl(-1»
I]I i
664:EMNA ==IF PIDIST EQ 1 THEN EMNAT(-l)*POPNE ELSE EMRATNl*
POPNE+PERNA3*EMNC
665:EMNNC ==EM99-EMGM-EMNA
666:EMRATN ==EMNA/POPNE
667:
668:
669:
670:
671:
672:
673:
lJ 674:
675:
lJ
676:
U 677:
CEA9N =(1-PCINDA)*CEA9N(-1)+PCINDA*(EMA91
(EM96-EMPRO-PERNA3*EMNC»
CEP9N =(1-PCINDA)*CEP9N(-1)+PCINDA*(EMP91
(EM96-EMPRO-PERNA3*EMNC»
CECNN =(1-PCINDA)*CECNN(-1)+PCINDA*(EMCNI
(EM96-EMPRO-PERNA3*EMNC»
CEM9N =(1-PCINDA)*CEM9N(-1)+PCINDA*(EMM91
(EM96-EMPRO-PERNA3*EMNC»
CET9N =(1-PCINDA)*CET9N(-1)+PCINDA*(EMT91
(EM96-EMPRO-PERNA3*EMNC»
CECMN =(l-PCINDA)*CECMN(-l)+PCINDA*(EMCMI
(EM96-EMPRO-PERNA3*EMNC»
CEPUN =(1-PCINDA)*CEPUN(-1)+PCINDA*(EMPUI
(EM96-EMPRO-PERNA3*EMNC»
CED9N =(1-PCINDA)*CED9N(-l)+PCINDA*(EMD91
(EM96-EMPRO-PERNA3*EMNC»
CEFIN =(l-PCINDA)*CEFIN(-l)+PCINDA*(EMFII
(EM96-EMPRO-PERNA3*EMNC»
CES9N =(1-PCINDA)*CES9N(-1)+PCINDA*«EMS9-PERNA3*EMNC)1
(EM96-EMPRO-PERNA3*EMNC»
CEGFN =(1-PCINDA)*CEGFN(-1)+PCINDA*«EMGF-EMGM)1
(EM96-EMPRO-PERNA3*EMNC»
G-37
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
678:CEGAN =(l-PCINDA)*CEGAN(-l)+PCINDA*(EMGAI
(EM96-EMPRO-PERNA3*EMNC»
679:NEMA9N ==CEA9N*(EMNA-PERNA3*EMNC)
680:NWSA9N ==WRA9*NEMA9N/1000
681:NEMP9N ==CEP9N*(EMNA-PERNA3*EMNC)
682:NWSP9N ==WRP9*NEMP9N/1000
683:'NEMCNN ==CECNN*(EMNA-PERNA3*EMNC)
684:NWSCNN ==WRCN*NEMCNN/lOOO
685:NEMM9N ==CEM9N*(EMNA-PERNA3*EMNC)
686:NWSM9N ==WRM9*NEMM9N/1000
687:NEMT9N ==CET9N*(EMNA-PERNA3*EMNC)
688:NWST9N ==WRT9*NEMT9N/1000
689:NEMCMN ==CECMN*(EMNA-PERNA3*EMNC)
--_._._-~~._-,~.._._-~._._--_.._----~690:-NWSCMN ==WRCM*NEMCMN/10OO
691:NEMPUN ==CEPUN*(EMNA-PERNA3*EMNC)
692:NWSPUN ==WRPU*NEMPUN/1000
693:NEMD9N ==CED9N*(EMNA-PERNA3*EMNC)
NEMFIN ==CEFIN*(EMNA-PERNA3*EMNC)
696:NWSFIN ==WRFI*NEMFIN/1000
697:NEMS9N ==CES9N*(EMNA-PERNA3*EMNC)+PERNA3*EMNC
698:NWSS9N ==WRS9*NEMS9N/1000
699:NEMGFN ==CEGFN*(EMNA-PERNA3*EMNC)
700:NWSGFN ==WRGF*NEMGFN/1000
701:NEMGAN ==CEGAN*(EMNA-PERNA3*EMNC)
702:NWSGAN ==WRGA*NEMGAN/1000
G-38
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MAP Documentation
May 1983
703:WSNA;;NWSA9N+NWSP9N+NWSCNN+NWSM9N+NWST9N+NWSCMN+NWSPUN+
NWSD9N+NWSFIN+NWSS9N+NWSGFN+NWSGAN
704:PINl;;PCYNAl*«PI-NCPI)/WS98)*WSNA
705:PIN;;IF PIDIST EQ 1 THEN RNAT(-I)*PI ELSE PINl+NCPI
706:PINN;;PI-PIN
707:R.PIN;;PIN*100/PDRPI
708:R.PINN;;PINN*100/PDRPI
709:P.PIN;;PIN*1000/POPNE
710:P.PINCL;;NCPI*1000/POPNE
711:P.PINN;;PINN*1000/(POP-POPNE)
712:PR.PIN ==R.PIN*1000/POPNE
713:PR.NCEXP ==NCEXP/POPNE/PDRPI*100000
714:PR.PINCL ==PR.PIN+PR.NCEXP
715:PR.PINN =;R.PINN*1000/(POP-POPNE)
716:RAT1 =;PINN/(PI-PC12N*PC12RN*PCNC1*ANCSA)
717:P.DPINN =1000*(PINN-RAT1*(DPIRES+RTPIF+RTISCP»/(POP-POPNE)
718:P.DPINN1 ==1000*(PIN-PCI2N*PCI2RN*PCNC1*ANCSA-(1-RATl)*
(DPIRES+RTPIF+RTISCP»/POPNE
719:PR.DPINN =P.DPINN*100/PDRPI
720:PR.DPIN;=P.DPINNl*100/PDRPI+PCI2N*PCI2RN*PCNCl*ANCSAI
POPNE*100000/PDRPI
Definitional Equations
721:R.WR98 ;;WR98*100/PDRPI
722:R.WR97 =WR97*100/PDRPI
723:P.EX99S ;=EX99S*1000./POP
724:P.EXCAP --EXCAP*1000/POP
725:P.EXOPS --EXOPS*1000/POP
G-39
726:P.EXONTR ==EXONTR*1000./POP
727 :P.EXBM --EXGFBM*1000/POP
728:P,R99S --R99S*1000./POP
729:P.RTIS ==RTIS*1000./POP
730:P.RT99 ==RT99*1000./POP
731:P.EL99 --EL99*1000./POP
732:P.ELED ==ELED*lOOO./POP
733:P.ELNEDI --ELNEDl*lOOO/POP
734:P.RLT99 --RLT99*1000./POP
735:P.GEXP --SLGEXP*1000/POP
736:P.BAL99 --BAL99*1000/POP
737:P.BALPF --BALPF*1000/POP
738:P.BALGF --BALGF*1000/POP
-"~---_._._._---_._---_.--_........_._---_.•._-_......_--_._-_..•_--_.__._.__._....••_--_.._----_._---
739:P.RSIN ==RSIN*1000/POP
740:P.RSIP ==RSIP*1000/POP
741:P.NRP9S --NONRP9S*1000/POP
742:P.RSEN ==RSEN*1000/POP
~··-···_-~·~~---~-··-----·-·-743:··-Pi·NPE·T·==·NONPET*1000/POp··
744:P.GODT ==GODT*1000/POP
745:PR.EX99S --P.EX99S*100/PDRPI
746:PR.EXONT --P.EXONTR*100/PDEXOPS
747:PR.EXBM ==EXGFBM*10**5/PDEXOPS/POP
748:PR.EXCAP --P.EXCAP*100/PDCON
749:PR.EXOPS --P.EXOPS*100/PDEXOPS
750:PR.R99S --P.R99S*100/PDRPI
751:PR.RTIS --P.RTIS*lOO/PDRPI
G;;.;;40
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
......_~_--_.~~.
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778:PR.RSIP --P.RSIP*(100/PDRPI)
779:PR.NRP9 --P.NRP9S*(100/PDRPI)
780:PR.NPET --P.NPET*(100/PDRPI)
781:PR.RSEN --P.RSEN*(100/PDRPI)
782:PR.GODT --P.GODT*(100/PDRPI)
783:PI.TXS --RT99/PI
784:PI.EXS --EXGF/PI
785:PI.TXL ==(RL99-RLT99-RLTF)/PI
786:PI.EXL ==(EL99-(GOBONDL-GOBONDL(-1»)/PI
j
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation 'j.
May 1983
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787:PI.EXT --(EXGF+(EL99-(GOBONDL-GOBONDL(-1»)-RLT99)/PI
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
804:RS.REC ==(RSIN+RSEN)/R99S
805:RS.RN ==R99SNT/R99S
806:RSBM.RP9 ==RP9SGF/RSGFBM
807:RSBM.PET --(RP9SGF+RSIG+RSID+(1-EXPFBAK)*RSIP)/RSGFBM
!I
808:RSBM.EXD --EXDSS/RSGFBM
809:RSBM.GF ==RSIG/RSGFBM
810:RSBM.B99 ==(RSIG+RSID+RSIPGF)/RSGFBM
811:RSBM.PF ==RSIPGF/RSGFBM
812:RSBM.REN ==RSENGF/RSGFBM
813:RN.FED --RSFDN/R99SNT
814:RN.OIL --(RP9S-EXPFCON)/R99SNT
815:RN.RSIN --RSIN/R99SNT
816:RN.RSEN --RSEN/R99SNT
817:EX.R99S --R99S/EXGF
818:EX.NRP9 --(RSEN+RSIN+RSFDN)/EXGF
819:EX.RSIN --RSIN/EXGF
820:EX.RP9S --1-EX.NRP9
821:EX.NPET ==NONPET/EXGF
822:EX.PET ==1-EX.NPET
823:EX.RSEN --RSEN/EXGF
824:EX.RVNT --R99SNT/EXGF
825:EX.DSS ==EXDSS/EXGF
826:EXBM.RV ==RSGFBM/EXGFBM
827:EXBM.CAB ==BALCABBM/EXGFBM
828:EXBM.FD ==BAL99/EXGFBM
829:EXBM.GR1 ==(RSGFBM+EXPFCON-EXPFBAK*RSIP-RP9S)/EXGFBM
G-43
830:EXBM.END ==EXDFWITH/EXGFBM
831:DF.RSFD --RSFDN*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI
832:DF.RP9S --RP9S*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI
833:DF.RSGF --RSGF*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI
834:DF.RSGFB ==RSGFBM*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI
835:DF.R99S --R99S*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI
836:DF.RSEN --RSEN*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI
837:DF.RSIN --RSIN*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI
838:DF.EXGF --EXGF*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI
839:DF.EXGFB ==EXGFBM*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI
840:DF.CABBM ==BALCABBM*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI
841:DF.GOXBM ==(EXGFBM-EXGFCAP)*376.536/PDEXOPS
842:DF.NRP9S ==NONRP9S*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI
843:DF.BAL99 --BAL99*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI
844:DF.BALDF --BALDF*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI
845:DF.BALGF --BALGF*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI
846:DF.NPET ==NONPET*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI
847:DF.RSIP ==RSIP*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI
.~_..~.~-~---_.~-~_.~~---
848:DF.BALPF --BALPF*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI
849:DF.RGFNT --R99SNT*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI
850:DF.RSIPN --RSIPNET*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI
851:DF.RSIDN --RSIDNET*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI
852:DF.RSIGN --RSIGNET*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI
853:DF.RSINN --RSINNET*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI
854:DF.PI ==PI*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI
855:DF.WS98 ==WS98*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI
G-44
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MAP Documentation
May 1983
856:DF.WSG9 --(WSGS+WSGL+WSGC+WSGM)*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI
857:DF.WSSP --(WST9+WSCM+WSPU+WSD9+WSFI+WSS9)*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI
858:DF.WSNS ==(WSA9+WSM9+WSCN+WSP9)*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI
859:DF.WRG9 ==DF.WSG9*1000/EMG9
860:DF.WRSP ==DF.WSSP*1000/EMSP
861:DF.WRNS ==DF.WSNS*1000/(EMA9+EMM9+EMCN+EMP9)
862:DF.BAL9P --DF.BAL99*1000/POP
863:DF.EXGFP --DF.EXGF*1000/POP
864:DF.PIP ==DF.PI*1000/POP
865:IM.REV ==(EXGF/PDRPI/POP-BASEXGFiBASPDRPI/BASEPOP)*PDRPI*POP
866:IM.BALRV =IM.BAL(-l)*(ROR+RORPPF)+IM.REV
867:IM.BAL =IF YR EQ 1977 THEN o ELSE IM.BAL(-l)+IM.BALRV
868:IM.BAL99 --BAL99+IM.BAL
869:IM.BALPC --IM.BAL*1000/POP
870:IM.BALR ==IM.BAL*100/PDRPI
871:IM.BLRPC --IM.BALR*1000/POP
872:EM.EMTCU --EMTCU/EM99
873:EM.EMSUP --EMSUP/EM99
874:EM.EMSP ==EMSP/EM99
875:EM.EMG9 --EMG9/EM99
876:EM.EMGA ==EMGA/EM99
877:EM.EMGF --EMGF/EM99
878:EM.EMCN ==EMCN/EM99
J
879:EM.EMP9 ==EMP9/EM99
\
J 880:EM.EMNR --EMNR/EM99
881:EM.EMNS --EMNS/EM99
G-45
882:G.PR.PI ==PR.PI/PR.PI(-l)
883:G.PR.DPI ==PR.DPI/PR.DPI(-l)
884:G.RSEN ==RSEN/RSEN(-l)
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MAP Documentation
May 1983
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885:G.EX99S ==EX99S/EX99S(-1)
886:G.EL99 ==EL99/EL99(-1)
887:G.PDRPI ==PDRPI/PDRPI(-l)
888:G.XONRPC ==PR.EXONT/PR.EXONT(-l)
889:G.POP ==POP/POP(-l)
890:G.EM99 --EM99/EM99(-1).
891:G.SRPC --PR.EX99S/PR.EX99S(-1)
892:G.RNSPC ==P.RSEN/P.RSEN(-l)
893:G.BAL99 ==BAL99/BAL99(-1)
894:G.BAL9PC --P.BAL99/P.BAL99(-1)
895:G.R.WR98 --R.WR98/R.WR98(-1)
896:PIU.PIA ==PR.DPINN/PR.DPIUS
897:INDEX.DI --PR.DPI/PR.DPIUS
898:INDEX.WG --R.WR97/(WEUS*S2*100/PDUSCPI)
900:INDEX.S2 ==EMTCU/R.DPI
Income Distribution Model Links
1301:NNPM1 --CNNPMS+MILPCT*MDPMS
902:NNPM2 --CNNPM6+MILPCT*MDPM6
903:NNPM3 --CNNPM7+CNNPM8+MILPCT*(MDPM7+MDPM8)
904:NNPM4 ==CNNPM9+CNNPMIO+MILPCT*(MDPM9+MDPM10)
905:NNPMS ==CNNPM1l+CNNPM12+MILPCT*(MDPMll+MDPM12)
G-46
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
906:NNPM6 --CNNPM13+CNNPM14+MILPCT*(MDPM13+MDPM14)
907 :NNPM7 --CNNPM15+MILPCT*MDPM15
908:NNPFI --CNNPF5+MILPCT*MDPF5
909:NNPF2 --CNNPF6+MILPCT*MDPF6
910:NNPF3 ==CNNPF7+CNNPF8+MILPCT*(MDPF7+MDPF8)
911:NNPF4 ==CNNPF9+CNNPFIO+MILPCT*(MDPF9+MDPF10)
912:NNPF5 ==CNNPF11+CNNPF12+MILPCT*(MDPF11+MDPF12)
913:NNPF6 ==CNNPF13+CNNPF14+MILPCT*(MDPF13+MDPF14)
914:NNPF7 ==CNNPF15+MILPCT*MDPF15
915:NAPM1 ==NATPM5
916:NAPM2 ==NATPM6
917:NAPM3 ==NATPM7+NATPM8
918:NAPM4 ==NATPM9+NATPM10
919:NAPM5 ==NATPM11+NATPM12
920:NAPM6 ==NATPM13+NATPM14
921:NAPM7 ==NATPM15
922:NAPF1 ==NATPF5
923:NAPF2 ==NATPF6
924:NAPF3 ==NATPF7+NATPF8
925:NAPF4 ==NATPF9+NATPFIO
926:NAPF5 ==NATPF11+NATPF12
927:NAPF6 ==NATPF13+NATPF14
928:NAPF7 ==NATPF15
929:PF ==CNNPFl+CNNPF2+CNNPF3+CNNPF4+MILPCT*(MDPF1+MDPF2+
MDPF3+MDPF4)
930:PM ==CNNPM1+CNNPM2+CNNPM3+CNNPM4+MILPCT*(MDPM1+MDPM2+
MDPM3+MDPM4)
G-47
Institute of Social
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MAP Documentation
May 1983
931:PFN ==NATPF1+NATPF2+NATPF3+NATPF4
932:PMN ==NATPM1+NATPM2+NATPM3+NATPM4
933:WRGMS ==(PI8-WS98)/(EMPRO*PDRPI)/«PI8(-1)-WS98(-1»1
(EMPRO(-l)*PDRPI(-l»)
934:WRGP9 ==WRP9/PDRPI/(WRP9(-1)/PDRPI(-1»
935:WRGCN ==WRCN/PDRPI/(WRCN(-l)/PDRPI(-l»
936:WRGM9 ==WRM9/PDRPI/(WRM9(-1)/PDRPI(-1»
937:WRGT9 ==WRT9/PDRPI/(WRT9(-1)/PDRPI(-1»
938:WRGCU ==WRCU/PDRPI/(WRCU(-l)/PDRPI(-l»
939:WRGD9 ==WRD9/PDRPI/(WRD9(-1)/PDRPI(-1»
940:WRGFI ==WRFI/PDRPI/(WRFI(-l)/PDRPI(-l»
941:WRGS9 ==WRS9/PDRPI/(WRS9(-1)/PDRPI(-1»
942:WRGGC ==WRGC/PDRPI/(WRGC(-l)/PDRPI(-l»
WRGGA ==WRGA/PDRPI/(WRGA(-l)/PDRPI(-l»
944:PRINT --PRINT2
945:Xl --PI
946:X2 ==P2
948:X4 --P4
949:X5 --P5
950:X6 --P6
951:WS98L ==WS98(-1)
952:PIL ==PI(-l)
G-48
G-49
Institute of Social
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MAP Documentation
May 1983
C32B 0.663336 C33A
C34A 0.197424 C34B
C35A -1.791 C35B
C36B -117.753 C36C
C36E -10.3654 C36F
C37B 0.66256 C38A
C39A -5.90571 C39B
C4B 0.672086 C40A
C41A -4.96533 C41B
C42B 0.171959 C43A
C43C -0.357641 C44A
C44C 0.032434 C44D
C45B 7.29399 C45C
C46A -1.82278 C46B
C47B 1.80202 C48A
C49A -3.70367 C49B
C5B 0.596163 C50A
C51A -48.4838 C51B
C52B 1.28862 C53A
C53C 3.83615 C53D
C54A 20.3019 C54B
C54D 0.098856 C54E
--'~~-"'---~'--"--"-"'----
~____._~_C55B .___0~.9]8 561-C5SC
C56B 0.949211 C57A
C57C 0.042129 C58A
C59A 4.64174 C59B
C59D 0.949676 C59E
C6A -0.757478 C6B
C60B 0.001215 C60C
C61B 1.18434 C62A
~-----"--'--"---"----------·--C-62-c ····--0-:ljtrr64-lj·------e-6:lo···-·
Co3:A-0-:-088tr72--C6~3B---
C64B 0.204201 C64C
C64E -12.3188 C65A
C66A 4.37672 C66B
C66D -0.253902 C66E
C67A -0.3 C67B
C68A 41.1756 C68B
C68D 0.000198 C69A
C7A~6.908821 C7B
C70B 0.723184 C70C
C70F 0.177801 C71A
C71C 0.148471 C71D
C72A 3.76867 C72B
C72D 0.025526 C73A
C73C -0.04871 C74A
C74C 1.22075 C74D
C75A -2.37192 C75B
-5.44841
0.002957
0.570399
7.69046
81.4021
-189.355
1.17929
-10.2398
0.261135
-4.35327
16.699
-40.2662
18.7679
0.907323
-4.54331
0.726188
0.379274
0.030347
4.7921
-0.272543
0.058467
11.6116
-0 ..043843-
-1.3362
-18.3431
2.00986
1.43667
0.648296
-0.630477
4.1444
0.125501
-1.78308
1.79364
-0.897404
0.616529
-0.123466
-1.99105
6.209675
1.22075
-4.27825
-0.000295
0.011235
-3.01609
4.5073
1.43879
,1.00465
C33B
C34C
C36A
C36D
C37A
C38B
C4A
C40B
C42A
C43B
C44B
C45A
C45D
C47A
C48B
C5A
C50B
C52A
C53B
C53F
C54C
C55A
··C56A··~
C57B
C58B
C59C
C59F
C60A
C61A
C62B
C64D
C65B
C66C
C66F
C67C
C68C
C69B
C70A
C70D
C71B
C71E
C72C
C73B
C74B
C74F
C76A
0.896499
-0.629312
-41.7079
0.982345
-5.65507
1.07998
-1.6632
2.44783
0.925213
1.71165
0.063707
9.0322
-21.7906
-10.7859
0.917921
0.106732
0.010411
3.21093
3.05381
0.320275
0.201308
0.169745
~--2 .32004
1.26857
3.27405
2.67656
0.28503
0.917411
2.3273
1.5729
1.43879
0.016818
5.268135E-05
0.013736
0.830038
0.723184
0.177801
-12.5389
G-50
Insti tute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
HHRM13 0.923 HHRM14 0.922 HHRM15 0.884
HHRM4 0.001 HHRM5 0.063 HHRM6 0.56
HHRM7 0.742 HHRM8 0.836 HHRM9 0.905
LFPART 0.78045 MDPF1 1.013 MDPF10 1.121
MDPFll 0.253 MDPF12 0.253 MDPF13 0.109
MDPFl4 0.036 MDPFl5 0.036 MDPF2 2.424
MDPF3 3.834 MDPF4 2.749 MDPF5 1.881
MDPF6 4.088 MDPF7 2.713 MDPF8 2.605
MDPF9 1.338 MDPM1 0.796 MDPM10 O.
MDPMll O.MDPM12 O.MDPM13 O.
MDPM14 O.MDPM15 O.MDPM2 2.894
MDPM3 3.871 MDPM4 2.894 MDPM5 1.302
MDPM6 O.MDPM7 0.036 MDPM8 O.
MDPM9 O.MDTOT 25.131 MF1 0.01
MF10 0.026 MFll 0.015 MF12 0.003
MF13 0.006 MF14 0.003 MF15 0.001
MF2 0.04 MF3 0.054 MF4 0.022
MF5 0.026 MF6 0.096 MF7 0.076
MF8 0.064 MF9 0.029 MHHF10 0.015
MHHFll 0.006 MHHF12 0.008 MHHF13 0.002
MHHF14 0.002 MHHF15 0.012 MHHF5 0.006
MHHF6 0.068 MHHF7 0.102 MHHF8 .0.039
MHHF9 0.028 MHHM10 0.794 MHHM11 0.206
---_..~~._~--_._.,-_._.__.-___~MHHM1~__....Q_.!.119 ______MHHM1~___..JLJ2.3a ----____MHHM14 ______0_.014""-_.._---_..._----
MHHM15 0.006 MHHMS 0.074 MHHM6 2.165
MHHM7 3.44 MHHM8 2.802 MHHM9 1.863
MILF1 0.732 MILF10 0.816 MILFll 0.12
MILF12 0.125 MILF13 0.043 MILF14 0.019
MILF15 0.057 MILF2 2.854 MILF3 2.727
MILF4 1.718 MILF5 1.279 MILF6 3.291
MILF7 3.254 MILF8 2.379 MILF9,1.001
--_."----~._~.__.._.------MI~Ml----'-----0-.-72 7'--MI~MIO -O;77T---------MILMlr--~-0:178
MI-hMl-2 O-.1-2-5------MI-bMl-3----------0-;-038-----!fI-bM:I.-4--0-;-0'19
MILM15 0.015 MILM2 2.607 MILM3 2.947
MILM4 1.867 MILM5 2.481 MILM6 7.219
MILM7 4.262 MILM8 2.931 MILM9 1.846
MILRAT 1.MMI 0.01 MM10 0.035
MMll 0.0_17 MM12 0.003 MM13 0.008
MM14 0.003 MM15 0.001 MM2 0.04
MM3 0.054 MM4 0.022 MM5 0.038
MM6 0.079 MM7 0.099 MM8 0.079
MM9 0.041 NCHHRF10 1.037 NCHHRFll 1.022
NFERT4 0.0003 NFERT5 0.1083 NFERT6 0.2381
NFERT7 0.1857 NFERT8 0.1188 NFERT9 0.0484
NHHRFI0 0.227 NHHRFll 0.267 NHHRF12 0.267
NHHRF13 0.297 NHHRF14 0.33 NHHRF15 0.503
NHHRF4 O.NHHRF5 0.026 NHHRF6 0.127
G-52
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l
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Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
NHHRF7 0.188 NHHRF8 0.219 NHHRF9 0.227
NHHRM10 0.807 NHHRMll 0.864 NHHRM12 0.864
NHHRM13 0.893 NHHRM14 0.925 NHHRM15 0.888
NHHRM4 0.003 NHHRM5 0.025 NHHRM6 0.257
NHHRM7 0.539 NHHRM8 0.691 NHHRM9 0.807
NMF1 O.NMF10 O.NMF11 O.
NMF12 O.NMF13 O.NMF14 O.
NMF15 O.NMF2 O.NMF3 O.
NMF4 O.NMF5 O.NMF6 O.
NMF7 O.NMF8 O.NMF9 O.
NMM1 O.NMM10 O.NMM11 O.
NMM12 O.NMM13 O.NMM14 O.
NMM15 O.NMM2 O.NMM3 O.
NMM4 O.NMM5 O.NMM6 O.
NMM7 O.NMM8 O.NMM9 O.
NPGQF1 O.NPGQF10 0.0029 NPGQF11 0.0092
NPGQF12 0.0112 NPGQF13 0.0128 NPGQF14 0.0103
NPGQF15 0.051 NPGQF2 0.0026 NPGQF3 0.0059
NPGQF4 0.0055 NPGQF5 0.024 NPGQF6 0.0284
NPGQF7 0.0118 NPGQF8 0.0092 NPGQF9 0.0057
NPGQM1 O.NPGQM10 0.0288 NPGQM11 0.0258
NPGQM12 0.0181 NPGQM13 0.0233 NPGQM14 0.035
NPGQM15 0.0417 NPGQM2 0.0041 NPGQM3 0.0058
NPGQM4 0.0053 NPGQM5 0.0376 NPGQM6 0.0692
NPGQM7 0.0405 NPGQM8 0.0314 NPGQM9 0.0224
NRCF10 .-0.002 NRCF11 -0.035 NRCF12 -0.035
NRCF13 -0.028 NRCF14 -0.061 NRCF15 0.033
NRCF'4 O.NRCF5 O.NRCF6 0.064
NRCF7 0.072 NRCF8 0.028 NRCF9 -0.002
NRCM10 0.12 NRCMll 0.076 NRCM12 0.076
NRCM13 0.016 NRCM14 -0.016 NRCM15 0.05
NRCM4 O.NRCM5 O.NRCM6 0.108
NRCM7 0.187 NRCM8 0.186 NRCM9 0.12
NSEXDIV 0.513 NSF1 0.99891 NSF10 0.99366
NSFll 0.99733 NSF12 0.9871 NSF13 0.987
NSF14 0.984 NSF15 0.9689 NSF2 0.99891
NSF3 0.99945 NSF4 0.99972 NSF5 0.99684
U NSF6 0.9971 NSF7 0.99639 NSF8 0.99611
NSF9 0.99558 NSM1 0.99864 NSM10 0.99018
)NSM11 0.99413 NSM12 0.9892 NSM13 0.9788
j NSM14 0.9665 NSM15 0.9368 NSM2 0.99864
NSM3 0.99922 NSM4 0.99868 NSM5 0.9933
NSM6 0.99 NSM7 0.9914 NSM8 0.99566
NSM9 0.9899 NSURINFF 1.NSURINFM 1.
NTP 40.OEMF1 -0.1077 OEMF10 -0.0726
OEMF11 -0.0449 OEMF12 -0.0709 OEMF13 -0.0441
OEMF14 -0.096 OEMF15 -0.0141 OEMF2 -0.1077
OEMF3 -0.1076 OEMF4 -0.0517 OEMF5 -0.051
G-53
lnsti tute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
OEMF6 -0.0452 OEMF7 -0.08-79 OEMF8 -0.0742
OEMF9 -0.0656 OEMM1 -0.1017 OEMM10 -0.0638
OEMMll -0.0326 OEMM12 -0.0561 OEMM13 -0.0507
OEMM14 -0.0178 OEMM15 -0.0178 OEMM2 -0.1017
OEMM3 -0.1037 OEMM4 -0.0479 OEMM5 -0.0498
OEMM6 -0.0533 OEMM7 -0.0998 OEMM8 -0.0977
OEMM9 -0.0935 PADJ 1.5 PAD1 0.7
PAD2 0.082 PARLVFV 0.919 PARNONGF 0.2
PBLTBL 0.13 PClNDA 0.1 PC lVPY 0.65
PCNCSV 0.5 PCNCSV1 1.PCNCWS 0.25
PCNC4 O.PCWS1 0.9 PCYNA1 1.01545
PC12N 0.922 PC12RN 0.833 .PC13C -55.
PC39A 0.5 PC39B 0.003 PDRPlBAS 364.23
PEClG 0.625 PERNA1 O.PERNA2 0.005
PERNA3 l.PESLT 0.4 PESLTC 0.1
PFlSH1 0.97 PlDlST O.PNTGR 0.02
POPMGQ 9.443 PRlNT2 O.PTOURB -4.75
PTOURD 0.4 PTOURE 1.PTOURS 0.4
PTOURT 0.2 PTRTS 0.02 PWRBASE 5473.
PI O.P2 O.P3 O.
P4 1.P5 1.P6 1.
RCF10 0.009 RCFll 0.008 RCF12 0.009
RCF13 0.007 RCF14 -0.051 RCF15 0.097
--~_.~_.,_._-_._-_._----RCE.4 -__0_.__----------RCF5 --0-.-------RCF6-------0,008
RCF7 0.026 RCF8 0.01 RCF9 0.01
RCM10 0.013 RCMll -0.003 RCM12 0.009
RCM13 -0.014 RCM14 -0.013 RCM15 0.054
RCM4 O.RCM5 O.RCM6 -0.195
ReM7 -0.016 RCM8 0.041 RCM9 0.022
ROR 0.02 RORANGRO 0.08 RORCPDEP 0.03
RORCRF 0.08 RORDlSK 0.02 RORNC 0.07
RORPDF O.RORPPF 0.01 SEXDIV 0.518
G-54
,I IIJ
APPENDIX H
ISER MAP ALASKA ECONOMIC MODEL
STOCHASTIC EQUATIONS FOR
ECONOMIC AND FISCAL MODULES
lnstitute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
l
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Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
APPENDIX H
ISER MAP ALASKA ECONOMIC MODEL
This appendix shows the coefficients and regression statistics
for each stochastic equation in the economic and fiscal modules of
the ISER MAP Alaska Economic Model (version A83.2).
Each equation is first printed,followed by the summary
statistics and,finally,the coefficient values.Abbreviations have
the following notations:
1
1,J
IIl.J
NOB
NOVAR
RANGE
RSQ
CRSQ
F(il j)
SER
DW(i)
COND(x)
SSR
COEF
ST ER
T-STAT
Number of observations
Number of variables
Range of observations
R squared
Corrected R squared
F test
Standard error of regression
Durbin Watsin test
Condition number of x matrix (for monitoring least
squares solution algorithm)
Sum of squared residuals
Coefficient value
Standard error of coefficient
T Statistic
H-l
4:PDRATIO:::PDRATIO(-1)+C67A*eEMSP-EMSP(-1»/EMSP(-1)+C67B*(EMCNX1/
tM98(-1»+C67C*D80
NDB ::::19
F~tINCiE -
F~SQ :::
:3ER -
NO\,-'AR :::3
1962 TO 1980
0.92621 CRSQ:::0.91699
0.0153 SSR :::3.738E-03
F(2.l16)-
Dlt)(O):::
100.420
1.64 CONDeX)-
COEF VPILUE ST EF~T-STI!:lT
C67A -0.10202 0.04678 -2 (.j.8088
C678 0.61653 0.15164 ·l +06577
C6 ,?'C -0.06026 0.01532 -,3.93418
7:PDCON:::C107A+Cl07B*WRCNNP
NOB :::20 NOVAR :::2
RANGE:::1961 TO 1980
RSQ =0.99987 CRSQ=
SER:::1.5924 SSR =
4.95
0.99987
45.646
F(1/18)-1.43E+05
DW(O)::::0.97 COND(X):::
COEF
Cl07A
C107B
VALUE
-46.61990
0.01452
ST ER
0.91687
3.84526E-05
T-STAT
-50.84700
377.53600
15:LOG(FAGI)=C21A+C21B*LOG(PI8)+C21C*LOG(EMCNX1+EMP9)
I \1..1
NOB =16 NOVI!:lR = 3 •
RANGE =1961 TO 1976
RSQ =0.99827 CRSQ =0.998
SER =0.0275 SSR :::9.815E-03
72.63
F(2/13)=3741.180
DW(O)::::1.55 COND(X)-
[J
i
COEF VALUE ST ER T-STAT
C21A 0.36331 0.20550 1.76795
C21B 0.93015 0.03099 30.01790
C21C 0.04202 0.02088 2.01253
H-3
\
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I
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l
I
-----
I
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1
I··
8969.980
2.43 COND(X)=
214.994
2.19 COND(X)-
1518.330
2.81 COND(X)-
T-STAT'
-10.77750
94.70880
F<1/18)=
DW(O)=
F(2/13)=
DW(O)=
F(2/16)=
DW (0)=
ST ER
0.08523
0.01146
0.9941
334.103
0.96614
3447.010
VALUE
-0.91859
1.08552
NOVAR = 2
1961 TO 1980
0.998 CRSQ =0.99789
0.0368 SSR =2.443E-02
LOG(FAGII)=C22A+C22B*LOG(PI)
AEX*1000 =C10A+C10B*POPC+C10C*(EMCNX1+EMP9)
16 :
20.65
NOB =20
R(~NGE =
f~:SQ =
SEF<=
COEF
C22A
C22B
19 :
NOB =16 NOVAR = 3
RANGE -1961 TO 1976
RSQ =0.97065 CRSQ =
SER =16.2836 SSR =
20.95
COEF VALUE
CI0A 16.93710 34.72310 0.48777C10B0.89514 0.14540 6.15625CI0C6.97821 1.33067 5.24415
NOB =19 NOVAR = 3
RANGE =1961 TO 1979
RSQ =0.99476 CR~Q =
SERe=4.5696 SSR =
7.27 ..
COEF VALUE ST ER T-STt1T
C28A 80.18740 3.35025 23.93470C28B1.09189 0.03070 35.56360C28C3.14996 0.27770 11.34320
21:LOGCATD/ATT)=C23A+C23B*LOGCAGI/ATT)+C23C*D69+C23D*D72
NOB -16 NOVAR =4
RANGE =1961 TO 1976
RSQ =0.94457 CRSQ =0.93072 F(3/12)=68.169
SER =0.1680 SSR =0+339 DWCO)=1.50 CONDCX)=
9.20
COEF VALUE ST ER T-STAT
C23A -2.75748 0.18568 -14.85040
C23B 1.34193 0.10579 j,2.68440
C23C 0.93009 0.17391 5.34818
C23D 0.43063 0.17515 2.45858
26:LOGCRTISCA2)=C24A+C24B*LOGCATI.TT)
11
NOB =16 NOVAR =2
RANGE =1961 TO 1976
.RSQ =0.97107 CRSQ =
SER =0.0985 SSR =
6.20
0.969
0.136
F(1/14)-469.867
DWCO)=1.57 CONDCX)=
.COEF
C24A
C24B
VALUE
-3.45059
1.19903
ST ER .
0.07834
0.05532
T-STAT
-44.04770
21.67630
30:RTIS =IF YR EQ 1980 THEN 0 ELSE C25A*RTISCC-1)+C25B*RTISC
NOB =19 NOVAR =2
RANGE =1961 TO 1979
RSQ =0.97803 CRSQ =0.97674
SER =.8.8000 SSR =1316.490
7.19
lJ
lJ
lJ COEF
C251~
C25B
VALUE
0.46826
0.52707
ST ER
0.09575
0.08996
H-5
F(1/17)=756.726
DWCO)=2.34 CONDCX)-
T-STAT
4.89051
5.85858
32:LOG(RTPIF/ATT)=C26AfC26B*LOG(FAGII/ATTfTCRED/I000/ATTfRTISLOSI
ATT)fC26C*D61.68*LOG(FAGII/ATT+TCRED/I000/ATTfRTISLOS/ATT)
31:RTISCP =CI05A+CI05B*PI8fCI05C*RTISC
NOB =19 NOVAR =3
RANGE =1961 TO 1979
RSQ =.0.99351 CRSQ =0.9927
SER =0.0499 SSR =3.986E-02
14.47
NOB =20 NOVAR =3
RANGE =1961 TO 1980
RSQ =0.99238 CRSQ =0.99148
SER =5.7689 SSR =565.767'
5.40
I
I
\
1
1
)
~'1
·1
J
1
T-STAT
0.46593
11.07110
20.59760
F(2/17)-1106.550
DW(O)=2.45 CONDCX)=
F(2/16)-1225.390
DWCO)=1.57 CONDCX)=
ST ER
2.18267
0.00119
0.03581
VALUE
1.01698
0.01322
0.73757
COEF
CI05A
CI05B
CI05C
COEF VALUE ST ER T-STAT
C26A -1.76919 0.08018 -22.06600
C26B 1.00396 0.03795 26.45370
C26C -0.11877 0.03094 -3.83920
COEF VALUE ST EF~T-STAT
c:al~l -6.05350 1.01043 -5.99103C2?E~0.01107 4.32765E-04 .25 t 5842C)
C27C -0.00870 0.00239 -3.63;:'i18
33:DPIRES -C27AfC27B*PI3fC27C*WSCNP
NOB =20 NOVAR =3
RANGE =.1961 TO 198U
RSQ -0.97549 CRSQ -0.97261
SER ~2~5946 SSR =114.447
F (2/17)-338.350
DWCO)=1.26 CONDCX)_
1
1
I
]
1
3.~l
)
1
I
34:LOGCBL)=C39A+C39B*LOGeXX98-XXP9)
NOVAR =2
1961 TO 1977
"WB ;;;;;17
/:;:{iNGE -
Fi:SQ -
SEF\==
0.97163
0+0722
CRSQ -0.96974
SSR =7.817E--02
F(1/15)-513.808
DWCO)=0.85 CONDCX)-4'
COlF VALUE ST EF\T-STf.1T
r ~
I I
\I
C39A
C39B
-6.96721
1.32915
0.42986
0.05864
-16.20800
22.66700
35:LOG (GR)=C40A+C40B*LOG e XX98)
i'WEi -17
FUiNGE -
F:SQ =
SEF\=
COEF
NOVAR :::;2
1961 TO 1977
0.9871 CRSQ =
0.1018 SSR =
VALUE
0.98624
0.155
ST EF\
FC1/15)-
DWeO)==
T-STAT
U.47.740
1.33 CONDeX)==48
C,40A
C40El
-12.50600
2.76494
0.60181
0.08161
-20.78070
33.87790
38:LOG(RTBS2*10**3/BLC-l»-C29A+C29B*LOGCGTRC-l)*10**3/BLC-l»
11,~J
NOB =16 NOVAR =2
RANGE =1962 TO 1977
RSQ =0.88051 CRSQ =
SER =0.1492 SSR =
50.09
0.87198
0.311
F(1/14)=103.166
DW(O)=1.50 COND(X)=
II.
\....1 COEF
C291~
C29B
VALUE
-3.76782
0.80262
ST ER
0.93422
0.07902
H-7
T-ST~iT
-4.03314
10.15700
40:LOG(RTCS1*100/PDRPI).~C43AfC43t*Q64.65+C43B*LOGCEMP9(-1)+EMCNC-1
)+EMM9(-1)+EMT9(-1)+EMCM(-1)+EMPU(-1»
NOB =20 NOVAR =3
RANGE =1962 TO 1981
RSQ =0.96592 CRSQ =
SER =0.1507 SSR =
18.94
0.96191
0.386
F(2/17)=240.894
DW(O)=1.65 COND(X)=
NOB =19 NOVAR =2
RANGE =1961 TO 1979
RSQ =0.97676 CRSQ =0.97539
SER =10.4952 SSR =1872.550
10.73
42:TPTV -C38A+C38B*POP
COEF
C43A
f>t3C
C43B
._-_.._--c.Q.~F-.....~_...
C38A
C38B
VALUE
-4.35327
-0.35764
1.71165
-VAlUE----~~-
-189.35500
1.07998
ST ER
0.31079
0.12116
0.08980
·SY ER---
..
13.03360
0.04040
T-STAT
-14.00690
-2.95191
19.06040
F~1/17)=714.451
DW(O)=1.12 COND(X)=
-14.52820
26.72920
)
"J
l
I
)
NOB =11 NOVAR =2
RANGE =1966 TO 1976
RSQ =0.7315 CRSQ =0.70166
SER =0.0829 SSR =6.186E-02
.__.86.02
COEF
C37A
C37B
VALUE
-5 ..65507
0 ..66256
ST ER
1 ..07530
0.13381
F(1/9)=24 ..519
DW(O)=1.51 CONDeX)=
T-STAT
-5.25904
4.95165
1
)
)
)
')
/...
45:LOG(RTMF)=C46A+C46B*LOG(THG)
22.67
NOB =11
/;:ANGE =
F<SG =
SER =
NOVAR =2
1966 TO 1976
0.98679 CRSG =0.98532
0.0479 SSR =2.061E-02
F(1/9)=
DW(O)=672.222
0.86 COND(X)=
COEF
C46A
C46B,
VALUE
-1.82278
0.90732
ST ER
0.16384
0.03500
T-STAT
-11.12510
25+92720
46:·LOG(RTVS)=C47A+C47B*LOG(R.DPI8N(-1»
NOB =19 NOVAR =2
RANGE =1962 TO 1980
RSQ =0.97077 CRSG =
SER =0.1373 SSR =
32.26
0.96905
0.320
F(1/i7)-564.507
DW(O)=0.55 COND(X)=
COEF
C47A
C47B
VALUE
-10.78590
1.80202
ST ER
0.50842
0.07584
T-STAT
-21.21440
23.75930
47:LOG(RTAS)=C48A+C48B*LOG(R.DPI(-1»
NOB =19 NOVAR = 2
RANGE =1962 TO 1980
RSQ =0.98924 CRSG =0.98861
SER'=0.0422 .SSR =3.024E-02
31.86
I I
I ILJ
COEF
C48A
C48B
VALUE
-4.54331
0.91792
ST EF<
0.15432
0.02322
H-9
F(1/17)=1563.080
DW(O)=1.35 COND(X)=
T-STAT
-29.44060
39.53530
49t RTSS =IF YR GT 1980 THEN 0 ELSE C50A+C50B*(EM99-EMGM)
727t364
1.29 COND(X)-
T-STf'lT
T-STAT
T-STAT
-4.29562
26.96970
-22.14490
28.85990
-14.20960
20.49580
FUll7)-
Dkl(O)::
F(1/17)=832.910
DW(O)=2.39 COND(X)=
F(i/17)=420.083
DW(O)=1.10 COND(X)=
ST ER
ST ER
ST ER
0.97582
0.209
0.16725
0.02516
0.95882
0.191
0.28830
0.05813
0.07375
5.72778E-04
l,.'ALUE
VALUE
VALUE
-0.31682
0.01545
-3.70367
0.72619
-4.09671
1.19138
NOVAR =2
1962 TO 1980
0.97716 CRSQ =
0.1108 SSR =
NOB =19
F;:ANGE =
RSQ ::
SE~:=
COEF
48:LOG(RTCIS)=C49A+C49B*LOG(R.DPI(-1»
C5C'A
C50B
NOB =19 NOVAR =2
RANGE =1962 TO 1980
RSQ =0.98 CRSQ =0.97882
SER =0.0457 SSR =3.552E-02
31.86
COEF
C49A
C49B
NOB::19 NOVAR ::2
RANGE =1962 TO 1980
RSQ =0.96111 CRSQ =
SER::0.1060 SSR =
23.67
COEF
C30A
C30B
1
1
)
1
)
I
-)
)
I
I
I
)
I
-------------------------------------------------_.
I
1
,,-,.j
)
I
)
53:LOG (ROFOS)=C33A+C33B*LOG (PI3 (-1)'>
22.57
NOB =19
RANGE =
RSQ =
SER =F(/17)=
DW(O)=
COEF
NOVAR =2
1962 TO 1980
0.98893 CRSQ =
0.0651 SSR =
VALUE
0.98828
7.199E-02
ST ER T-STAT
1519.150
1.73 COND(X)=
I Iil
C33A
C33B
..
-5.44841
0.89650
0.16877
0.02300
-32.28220
38.97610
[1il
56:LOG(RMIS)::C35A+C35B*LOGCPI3(-1»
I'W B =1 7.NOVA R ::2
RANGE =1962 TO 1964,1968 TO 1981
RSQ =0.59386 CRSQ =0.56678
SER =0.3427 SSR =1.761
F(1/15)::21.933
DW(1)::0.93 CONDeX)-21
COEF
C35A
C35f:.~
VALUE
-1.79100
_0(.57040 ..
ST ER
0.9j.547
0.12180
T-STAT
-1.95638
4.68325_..
72 :LOG (RSFFS)=C58A+C58B*LOG (POP (-1».
NOB =18 NOVAR =2
RANGE =1963 TO 1980
RSQ =0.9391 CRSQ =
SER =0.1580 SSR =
64.47
COEF
C58A
C58B
VALUE;
-18.34310
3.27405
0.93529
0.399
ST ER
1.20056
0.20844
H-ll
F(1/16)=246.718
DW(O)=0.98 COND(X)=
T-STAT
-15.27880
15.70730
95:LOGeEXJUS4)=C20A+C20B*LOGCEXOPS)
96:LOGeEXPPS4)=C91A+C91B*LOGeEXOPS)
NOB =20 NOVAR =2
RANGE =1962 TO 1981
RSQ =0.99519 CRSQ =0.99493
SER =0.0713 SSR =9.162E-02
12.06
COEF
C20A
C20B
VALUE
-2.68296
1.01735
ST ER
0.09689
0.01666
Fel/18)=3726.980
DWeO)=1.14 CONDeX)=
T-STAT
-27.69200
61.04880
j
I
j
I
1
I
I
J
NOB =20 NOVAR =2
RANGE =1962 TO 1981
RSQ =0.98271 CRSQ =
SER =0.1662 SSR =
12.06
0.98175
0.497
Fel/18)=1023.320
DWeO)=1.05 CONDeX)=
NOB =20 NOVAR =~
RANGE =1962 TO 1981
RSQ =0.99079 CRSQ =
SER =0.0940 SSR =
12.06
COEF
C91A
C91B
COEF
C93A
C93B
VALUE
-5.36404
1.24213
VALUE
-2.52615
0.96594
ST ER
0.22575
0.03883
0.99028
0.159
ST ER
0.12761
0.02195
-23.76100
.31.98930
Fe1/1S)=1936.610
DWeO)=0.81 CONDeX)=
-19.79540
44.00690
1
j
I
I
I
1
1
)
98:LOGCEXHES4)=C94A+C94B*LOGCEXOPS)
NOB -20 NOVAR =2
RANGE =1962 TO 1981
RSQ =O.~7559 CRSQ =
SER =0.1617 SSR =
12.06
0.97423
0.471
FC1/18)=719.325
DWCO)=0.45 CONDCX)=
COEF
C94A
C94B
VALUE
-2.81492
1.01315
ST ER
0.21962
0.03778
T-STAT
-12.81710
26.82020
99:LOGCEXSSS4)=C96A+C96B*LOGCEXOPS)
NOB =20 NOVAR =2
RANGE =1962 TO 1981
RSQ =0.98987 CRSQ =
SER =0.1137 SSR =
12.06
0.9893
0.233
FC1/18)=1758.210
DWCO)=1.07 CONDCX)=
I I
U
COEF
C96A
C96B
VALUE
-2.89633
1.11355
ST ER
0.15440
0.02656
T-STAT
-18.75900
41.93110
100:LOGCEXEDS4)=C19A+C19B*LOGCEXOPS)
NOB =20 NOVAR =2
RANGE =1962 TO 1981
RSQ =0.99519 CRSQ =0.99492
SER =0.0728 SSR =9.551E-02
12.06
F(1/18)=3721.010
DWeO)=1.12 CONDCX)=
COEF
C19A
C19B
VALUE
-1.18305
1.03791
ST ER
0.09892
0.01701
H-13
T-STAT
-11.95930
60.99980
930.686
1.50 CONDCX)=
7372.610
1.37 CONDCX)=
T-STAT
-3.89527
14.05200
-19.21660
30.50710
-18.22140
85.86340
T-STAT
F(1/18)=
DW CO)=
F(1/18)=
DW CO)=
F(1/18)=197.461
DWCO)=.1.73 CONDCX)=
ST ER
ST ER
0.97997
0.569
0.24137
0.04152
0.05634
0.00969
.ST ER-----·
0.91182
1.117
0.33836
0.05820
=C98A+C98B*LOGCEXOPS)
VALUE
VALUE
-4.63823
1.26652
-1.02656
0.83204
-1.31799
0.81780
LOGCEXCDS4)=C97A+C97B*LOGCEXOPS)
LOGCEXTRS4)
C97A
C97B
COEF
NOB =20 NOVAR =2
RANGE =1962 TO 1981
RSQ =0.98103 CRSQ =
SER =0.1777 SSR =
12.06
C98A
C98B
NOB =20 NOVAR =2
RANGE =1962 TO 1981
RSQ =0.91646 CRSQ =
SER =0.2492 SSR =
12.06
C99A
C7'9B
COEF
...
NOB =20 NOVAR =2
RANGE =1962 TO 1981
RSQ =0.99756 CRSQ =0.99743
SER =0.0415 SSR =3.098E-02
12.06
101 :
1
1
]
----------ru3T----TOGTEXGHS4r=c99A+C99B~LoGTE x OPS )------------..-.-..-..--...--.-..--------..--.-...----..-.--...--...--...)-
-~._-~-------_._----_.__.._-~_._--_.._._.-
]
]
j
]
.j
J
!20:EXPRCDS =C7A+C7B*EXCDSNT
NOB =20 NOVAR =2
RANGE =1962 TO 1981
RSQ =0.84914 CRSQ =
SER =1.0883 SSR =
1.96
0.84076
21.320
F(1/18)=101.318
DW(O)=1.05 COND(X)=
COEF
C7A
C7B
VALUE
0.90882
0.20968
ST ER
0.30060
0.02083
T-STAT
3.02337
10.06570
121.:EXPREDS1 =C1A+C1B*EXEDSNT+C1C*D61.75*EXEDSNT
NOB =17 NOVAR =3
RANGE =1965 TO 1981
RSQ =0.98143 CRSQ =
SER =1.5340 SSR =
4.64
0.97878
32.945
F(2/14)=369.990
DW(O)=1.80 COND(X)=
.I
I
COEF
C1A
C1B
C1C
VALUE
0.42666
0.05018
0.37105
ST ER
0.89349
0.00503
0.01375
T-STAT
0.47752
9.97479
~6.98410
122:EXPRSSS =C2A+C2B*EXSSS
NOB =20
I=<ANGE =
RSQ =
SER =
NOVAR =2
1962 TO 1981
0.97794 CRSQ =
2.0905 SSR =
0.97671
78.666
F(1/18)=
DW (0)=
797.781
0.74 COND(X)-
COEF
C2A
C2B
VALUE
1.50943
0.27429
ST ER
0.70182
0.00971
H-15
T-STAT
2.15075.
28.24500
123:EXPRUA =C32A+C32B*EXUA
NOB =11 NaVAR =2
RANGE =1971 TO 1981
RSQ =0.96844 CRSQ =0.96493
SER =6.8793 SSR =425.920
3.61
1fit:EXPRHES =C3A+C3BJt:EXHES
NOB =20 NaVAR =2
RANGE =1962 TO 1981
RSQ =0.96456 CRSQ =
SER =1.6653 SSR =
2.37
j
J
I
I
']
I
~l
'j
l
I
276.161
1.40 COND(X)=
489.935
1.05 COND(X)=
-0.46584
16.61810
T-STAT
F(1/9)::
DW (0)=
F(1/18)=
DW (0)=
ST ER
4.03380
0.03992
0.96259
49.918
VALUE
-1.87910
0.66334
C32A
C32B
COEF
5.35074
22.13450
j
j
.........~_____..I
0.51996
0.01112
2.78220
0.24610
C3A
C3B
2.57
NOB =20
RANGE =
/:;;SQ =
SER··=
4366.430
0.75 CON[I(X)::
-3.88402
66.07890
F(1/18)::
[1(.,1(0)::
ST ER
0.42822
0.01017
0.995'67
30.143
VALUE
-1.66320
0.67209
NOVAR =2
1962 TO 1981
0.99589 CRSQ =
1.2941 SSR ::
COEF
C4A
C4B
126:EXPRPPS =C5A+C5B*EXPPS
NOB =20 NOVAR =2
RANGE =1962 TO 1981
RSQ -0.99484 CRSQ =
SER =9.4924 SSR =
2.41
0.99455
4.363
FC1/18)=3471+220
DWCO)=1.51 CONDCX)-
COEF
C5A
C5B
VALUE
0.10673
0.59616
ST ER
0.15566
0.01012
T-STAT
0+68568
58+91700
127:EXPRGGS =C8A+C8B*EXGGS
NOB =20 NOVAR =2
RANGE =1962 TO 1981
RSQ =0+95541 CRSQ =0+95293
SER =3+5722 SSR =229.688
2.73
F(1/18)-385+656
DWCO)=0.87 CONDeX)=
COEF
C8A
C8B
VALUE
1+14384
0.45566
ST ER
1+23748
0.02320
T-STAT
0.92433
.19+63810
128:EXPRJUS =C6A+C6B*EXJUS
NOB =20 NOVAR =2.
RANGE =1962 TO 1981
RSQ'=0.99766 CRSQ =
SER =1.0478 SSR =
2.66
0+99753
19.763
FC1/18)-7683+690
DWCO)=0.62 CONDCX)=
COEF
C6A
C6B
VALUE
-0.75748
0+64830
ST ER
0+35603
0+00740
H-17
T-STAT
-2.12758
87.65660
132:LOGCWSGS)=C55A+C55B*LOG(WSGSFY)+C55C*D75
COEF ~MLUE ST ER T-STAT
C55f~0.16975 0.06303 2.69326
C55B 0.97856 0.01264 .77.39190
C55C 0.04384 0.03509 1.24937
NOB =11 NOVAR =2°
RANGE =1971 TO 1981
F:SQ =·0.87016 .CF~SQ -.0 +85573·...F(1/9)=60 +316·
SER =14.4962 SSR =1891+270 DW(O)=1.88 COND(X)=
4 ..21
I
1
I
1
'j
1
j
J
:1
I
J
I
.1
I
J
,.j
'I
J
J
T-STAT
-1.13033
7.76636
T-STAT
-1.75393
111.37100
F(2/13)-3104.200
DW(~)=2.17 CONDeX)-
F(1/18)-1.24E+04
DW(O)=0.85 COND(X)=
H-18
ST ER
ST ER
0.99847
16.995
9.71360
0.01541
0.35909
0.00499
VALUE
-0.62981
0.55'615
VALUE
-10.97960
0.11969
NOVAR =2
1962 TO 1981
0.99855 CRSQ =
0.9717 SSR =
NOB =16 NOVAR =3
RANGE =1965 TO 1980
RSQ =0.99791 CRSQ =0.99759
SER =0.0335 SSR =1.456E-02
15.49
2.97
129:EXPRTRS =C9A+C9B*EXTRS
134:EXINREC =C17A+C17B*(EXOPS-RLT99)
COEF
NOB =20
RANGE =
F..:SQ =
C17A
C17B
COEF
SER =
C9A
C9B
146:XXVHY =C41A+C41B*CEXHYCAP+EXHYCAPC-1»
NOB ==12
RANGE =
r<SQ -.
SER :::
NOVAR =2
1964 TO 1975
0.78763 CRSQ =
5.8369 SSR =
6.91
0.7664
340.691
F(1/10)=
DW eO)=
37.08'8
1.47 CONDeX)=
COEF
C41A
C41B
VALUE
-4.96533
0.26113
ST ER
5.94174
0.04288
T-STAT
-0.83567
6.08998
147:XXVNHY =C42A+C42B*CEXNHYCPC-1)+EXSPCAPC-1)-EXCAPFRC-2)+EXNHYCP+
EXSPCAP-EXCAPFRC-1»
NOB =11 NOVAR =2
RANGE =1965 TO 1975
RSQ =0.86994 CRSQ =0.85549
SER =3.5535 SSR =113.646
3.69
F(1/9)=60.201
DWCO)=1.94 CONDeX)-
COEF
C42A
C42B
VALUE
0.92521
0.17196
ST ER
2.11974
0.02216
T-STAT
0.43648
7.75893
177:LOGeLPTB1)=C57AfC57B*LOGCPI3C-1»+C57C*D71.00
NOB:::19 NOVAR =3
RANGE:::1963 TO 1981
RSQ:::0.9973 CRSQ =0.99696
SER =0.0490 SSR =3.844E-02
45.64
F(2/16)=='2954.450
DWeO)==2.40 CONDeX)=
IJ
COEF
C57A
C57B
C57C
V.ALUE
-1.33620
1.26857
0.04213
ST ER
0.20928
0.03084
0.04169
T-STAT
-6.38484
41.13980
1.01042
C31A+C31B*LOG(F'I(-1)*1000/F'OF'(-1»
COND(X):=
I
!
j
J
I
I
~l
I
-j
I
l
I
I----------------_.-
1
J
-j
I
.I
r
1522.330
1.74
1971.900
1.50 CON[I(X):=
110.557
2.39 COND(X)=
T-STAT
T-STAT'
T-STAT
-1.66914
44.40600
-0.99289
10.51460
-25.12500
39.01640
F(1/17)=
[lW (0)=
F(1/18)=
DW(O)=
F(1/l8)=
[1(,)(0)=
H-20
ST ER
ST ER
ST ER
0.98767
0.102
0.27159
0.03169
0.85221
1.073
0.08911
0.01374
0.99095
650.535
2.19556
3.52547E-04
VALUE
VALUE
VALUE
-3.66471
0.01566
-6.82373
1.23627
-0.08847
0.14450
=C18A+C18B*LF'TB
NOVAR =2
1962 TO 1981
0.98831 CRSQ =
0.0752 SSR =
NOVAF~:=2
1962 TO 1981 0
0.85998 CRSQ =
0.2441 SSR =
RLF'Tl
.LOG(RLOT*1000/F'OF'(-1»:=186 :
184 :
NOB =20
RANGE -
RSQ =
SER :=
COEF
COEF
NOB :=19 NOVAR :=2
RANGE:=1963 TO 1981
RSQ =0.99145 CRSQ =
SER:=6.1860 SSR =
2.73
e18A
C18B
C31A
C31B
COEF
NOB :=20
RANGE =
I=\:SQ :=
SER-:=
2.92
C63A
C63B
199:RLTEF4 =C36AfC36F*D81.00+D71.00*C36B+BIU*C36C+C36D*ADMSD
NOB =19 NaVAR =5
RANGE -1963 TO 1981
RSQ =0.9957 CRSQ -0.99448
SER =5+1635 SSR =373.270
33.96
F(4/14)-811.379
DW(O)=2.37 CONDeX)-
COEF VALUE ST ER T-STfiT
C36~1 -41.70790 1·3 (.12910 -3.17675
(:36F--81.40210 7.04958 11.54710
C36B -11'7.75300 9.80848 -12.00520
(:36C 7.6'7'046 0.40097 19.17960
(:36[1 0.98234 0.20856 4.71003
216:ELEDl =C11A+C11B*PI3e-1)
NOB =17 NaVAR =2
RANGE -1965 TO 1981
RSQ =0.8627 CRSQ =0.85354
SER =14.7509 SSR =3263.850
3.52
Fel/i5)=94.246
DWeO)=2.34 ~OND(X)=
COEF
CllA
CllB
VALUE
-4.74734
0.02493
ST ER
6.80070
0.00257
H-21
T-STAT
-0.69807
9.70803
21S:ELBD =C14A+C14C*D61.77*GOBONDLC-1)fC14B*GOBONDLC_1)
219:ELNED1/PDRPI =C16AfC16E*D81.00fC16D*R.DPI8NC-l)fC16B*D7l.00*
R.DPI8NC-1)fC16C*WEALTHC-1)*POPC-1)
_G.OEF VALUE ST ER T-STAT
C14A -0.88561 11.03360 -0.08026C14C-0.11048 0.02727 -4.05157C14B0.17366 0.01804 9.62580
FC2/9)=108.607
DWCO)=2.52 CONDCX)=
NOB =12 NOVAR = 3
RANGE =1970 TO 1981
RSQ =0.96021 CRSQ =0.95137
SER =11.4753 SSR =1185.150
6.68
=5
CRSQ =0.98369
'SSR =3.748E-02
T-ST~~T
0.SEH21
iJ.99545
-3.69483
4.19908
5.86969
'IF C4-L12J'-----=-'--_2.A2-._263__________
DWCO)=2.37 CONDCX)=
ST ER
H-22
.08404
0.06199
3.58569E-04
7.31536E-05
2.67099E-07
VALUE
0.07405
0.43367
-0.00132
3.07177E-04
1.56779E-06
17
COEF
C16A
C16E
C16D
C16B
C16C
225:ELEDCP =C15A+C15B*ELED
NOB =20 NOVAR =2
RANGE =1962 TO 1981
RSQ =0.82638 CRSQ -0.81674
SER =16.3857 SSR =4832.850
2.79
F(1/18)=85.675
DW(O)=1.13 COND(X)=
COEF
C15A
C15B
VALUE
-8.30542
0.29367
ST ER
5.77502
0.03173
T-STAT
-1.43816
9.25607
226:ELPERS =C12A+C12B*(EL99-ELEDCP-ELBD)
I !
\)
NOB =20 NOVAR =2
RANGE =1962 TO 1981
RSQ =0.98926 CRSQ =0.98866
SER =13.2365 SSR =3153.680
2.61
F(1/18)=1657.480
DW(O)=2.91 COND(X)=
I
j COEF
C12A
C12B
VALUE
7.83103
0.52010
ST ER
4.42589
0.01278
T-STAT
1.76937
40.71210
227:WSGL -C13A+C13C*D81.00+C13B*CELPERS+ELPERSC-l»
\J
NOB =18 NOVAR =3
RANGE =1963 TO 1980
RSQ =0.99238 CRSQ =0.99136
SER =13.0148 SSR =2540.770
1.0E+75
F(2/15)=976.625
DWCO)=1.82 CONDCX)=
I\\...,COEF VALUE ST EF:T-STAT
\l C13(~-8.31784 4.89396 -1.69961
C13C 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000
C13B 0.68222 0.01544 44.19560
H-23
':.:'···,...·_·-r··..:.~.:.::::."'t"r'l:::..•:~,---------
C51A+C51B*CDPI+DPIC-1)+DPIC-2)+DPIC-3)+DPIC_4»
=C34A+C34B*POP+C34C*D61.72+EXTRNS/PDRPI
NOB =16 NOVAR = 2
RANGE =1965 TO 1980
RSQ =0.9903 CRSQ =
SER =15.8473 SSR =
3.59
1429.870
1.03 CONDeX)=
120.979
0.74 CONDeX)=
-6.32570
37.81360
T-STAT
T-STAT
F(2/17)-
DW eO)=
F(1/14)=
DW CO)=
ST ER
0.92663
0.319.
ST ER
0.98961
3515.920
7.66457
8.02538E-04
VALUE
-48.48380
0.03035
VALUE
NOVAR = 3
1961 TO 1980
0.93435 CRSQ =
0.1370 SSR =
PITRAN/PDRPI
PIDIR =232 :
30.57
COEF
NOB =20
RANGE =
RSQ =
SER =
COEF
C51A
C5iB
.....__.._..-2-3S.:···F'-HlLI-=·G44 A+84 4D*D 6·1-.75 +&44B*+WS9 8-WSGNP)+C4AC*WSC NP(-'"'l·)
COEF VALUE 5T ER T-5TAT
C44A 16.69900 17.34240 0.96290
C44D -40.26620 1.3.24440 -3.04023
C44B 0.06371 0.00422 15.10940
C44C 0.03243 0.01169 2.77496
NOB =20 NOVAR = 4
RANGE =1961 TO 1980
RSQ =0.99191 CRSQ =
SER =9.9931 SSR =
16.29
653.632
2.14 CONDeX)=
!
I
............/
-_.__._..._--~
I
J
'!
I
I
j
0.45096
2.63731
-4.50993
F(3/16)=
mHO)=
H-24
0.43778
0.00112
0.13954
0.99039
1597.790
0.19742
0.00296
-0.62931
C34A
C34B
C34C
.....;..,..",......,.'
"1
\
236:PISSC =Cl06AtCl06B*eWS98-WSCNP)
NOB =20 NOVAR =2
RANGE =1961 TO 1980
RSQ =0.99259 CRSQ =0.99218
SER =7.7477 SSR =1080.480
3.20
Fel/18)-2411.940
DWCO)=1.07 CONDCX)=
COEF
Cl06A
Cl06B
VALUE
-19.35340
0.06951
ST ER
3.03884
0.00142
T-STAT
-6.36868
49.11140
237:PIPR01*100/PDRPI =C45AtC45B*EMPROltC45C*D61.66tC45D*D79
NOB =19 NOVAR =4
RANGE =1961 TO 1979
RSQ =0.88532 CRSQ -0.86239
SER =5.0034 SSR =375.508
11.40
F~3/15)=38.601
DWeO)=1.23 CONDeX)=
I \COEF VALl)E ST ER T-STAT
,.....)
C45A 9.03220 6.29946 1.43380
C45B 7.29399-0.92964 7.84607
C45C 18+76790 5+32460 3+52474
C45D -21.79060 5+95788 -·3 +65745
246:p IFO:~lDJ*1 OO/F'DF\F'I =C1 03{.)+C 1 03B*Ei'iCi-.hX 1 tC 1 03C*EM 97
COEF 'Jt~LUE ST EFo:T-SHiT
C103A -20.34940 8+55305 -2.37919
Cl03E 15.88·170 0.72688 21.85320
Cl03C 0.7:1.219 0.08147 8<-74:1.1.1,6
NOB =20 NOVAR =3
"RANGE -1961 TO 1980
RSQ -0.98502 C~SQ =
SER -12.6270 SSR =
6.78
0.98326
2710.5:LO
H-25
F (2/17;'..-
D(,)eO)::;
:::i:59.021
2.15 CONDeX)-
COEr VALUE ST ER T-STAT
C54A 20.30190 7.65963 2.65051
C54B 0.05847 0.00843 6.93728
C54C 0.20131 0.03229 6.23466
C54D 0.09886 0.03467 2.85108
C54E 11.61160 7.67436 1.51304
=C54A+C54B*R.DPI8N+C54C*R.DPI8X+C54D*R.DPI8X(-1)+C54Et262:XXCN8
D64.65
NOB =19 NOVAR =5
RANGE =1962 TO 1980
RSQ =0.96235 CRSQ =
SER =9.5354 55R =
8.72
0.95159
1272.930
F(4/14)-
DW(O)::
89.453
2.08 COND(X)=
1
I
1
I
I
I
t
t
:l
I
T-STAT
-10.06740
19.00170
5T ER
H-26
0.23045
0.04995
VALUE
NOVAF.:=2
-2.32004
0.94921
LOG(EMCN1)::C56A+C56B*LOG(XXCN1)
NOB =21
COEF
C5t,A
C56B
i
1
I---I:;,!..S-Q-=--0-+-9-§00-1--------GF\!..SQ-=--0-.-9A-7-~8-~-~~F-(-1-1-1-9-)~::---~6-.:1-._(~-7-2----------------
SER =,0.0903 S5R ::0.155 DW(O)=0.47 COND(X)=
1
1
I
I
I
I
268:LOGCWRCNNP/PDRPI)=C59A+C59F*D.80DEC6+C59B*LOGCWEUS/PDUSCPI)+
C59C*LOG(1+EMCNRT)+C59D*LOG(1+EMCNRTC-1»+C59E*LOGel+EMCNRTe-2»
NOB =20 NOVAR =6
RANGE =1961 TO 1980
RSQ -0.93976 CRSQ -0.91825
SER =0.0431 SSR =2.602E-02
6.00
F(5/14)-43.680
DWeO)=1.38 CONDeX)-
COEF VALUE ST EF<T-STAT
I
1
C59A 4.64174 0.01229 377.54500
C59F 0.28503 0.04745 6.00643j
C59B 2.00986 0.24339 8.25779
C59C 2.67656 0.68143 3+92787
C59D 0.94968 0.93281 1.01808
C59E 1.43667 0.69160 2.07730
1\
,..J
II 273 :LOG CXXP9)=C52A+C52B*LOG (EMP9)
\..Ml
NOB =19 NOVAR =2
RANGE =196i TO 1979
RSQ =0.89638 CRSQ =
SER =0.2534 SSR =
3.41
0.89028
1.092
Fei/i7)=147.058
DWCO)=0.80 CONDeX)=
COEF VALUE ST ER T-STAT
C52A 3.21093 .0.10769 29.81700
I 'C528 1.28862 0.10626 12.j.2650\J
H-27
276:EMMa -C60A+C60B*R.DPI8NfC60C*D61.77
274:LOGeWRP9/PDRPI)=C53A+C53F*D.80DEC6+C53D*D61.76+C53B*LOGeWEUSI
PDUSCPI)+C53C*LOGel+EMCNRT)
NOB =20 NOVAR =3
RANGE ==1961 TO 1980
RSG ==0.98062 CRSQ -
SER::::0.0926 SSR ==
10.73
NO'J{~R =5
1961 TO 1'7'80
0.95288 CRSQ =0.94032
0.0546 SSR =4.480E-02
I
I
I
I
I
l
i
1
!
1
75.835
1.53 CONDeX)-
138.17800
4.59761
"'7.67849
9.84789
7.968-t7
T-STAT
F(.4/15)_.
DW eo)==
F(2/17)-430.081
DWeO)==0.70 CONDeX)-
ST ER
0.03468
0.06966
0.03549
0.31010
0.48142
0.97834-
0.146
VfiLUE
4.79210
0.32028
-()+27254
3.0~)381
3.83615
NOB :::20
f=\:ANGE --
r=\:SQ -
SER =
COEF
C53F
C53(~
C53D
C53B
C53C
CCiEF W·)L.UE ST ER T-SHn
C6()A 0.91741 0.10770 8.51843
C60B 0.00122 6.69159E-05 18.16440
C60C -0.63048 0.06982 '·9.03053
J
I
J
I
l
(
I
I
I
:1.35.004
0.92 CONDeX)_
:1.1.02960
1.1..61860
Fel/17)-
[llAno)::::
ST ER
H-28.
0.88158
0+235"
0.211.01
0.10193
'Jf-1LUE
2.32730
1.1.8434
NOV,:iF:==2,
1961 TO 1."-1"79
0.88816 CRSQ ==
O.~~77 SSR=
CCiEF
C61(~
C::61B
·(·WB ==19
F:P,NGE -
F:.SC(::::
:3 EFt:::::
282:LOGCWRM9A9/PDRPI)~C62A+C62F*D.80DEC6+C62B*LOGeWEUS/PDUSCPI)+
C62C*LOGC1+EMCNRT)+C62D*LOGC1+EMCNRTe-1»
Nm,lr;F,;:::5
1961 TO 1980'
2.97
0.81971
0.0421 SSR :::2 ~663E-()2
17.050
1.50 CONDeX)-
F(4/15)-
DW(O)~
0.77163CF\~SQ =
NOB =20
F,FdWE =
RSQ --
:;ER =
.\COEF VI~LLJE ST ER T-STr.IT
Ct·2A
':62F
(:62B
C62D
4.13658
0.15724
1.57290
0.90165
0(.70681
0.01161
0.04638
0.23340
0.51283
0.51625
356.33400
3.39060
6.73918
i.7~58:L 7
1.36914
287:XXTNT =C64A+C64B*R.DPI8X+C64D*R.DPI8X*R.DPI8XC-1)+C64C*R.DPI8N+
C64E*D71.73
NOB =19 NOVAR ;:::5
RANGE =1962 TO 1980
RSQ -0.99452 CRSQ;:::0.99295
SER =4.4006 SSR =271.116
7.46
F(4/14)=634.976
DW(O)-2.39 COND(X)=
COEF VALUE ST ER T-STAT
lJ
1\\...J
C64A
C64B
C64D
C64C
C64E
3.83502 0
0.20420
-6.32537E-04
0.12550
-12.31880
3.02693
0.02259
9.93881E-05
0.00335
2.83003
1.26696
9.03747
-6.36431
37.48510
-4.35288
I ]
l-l
H-29
1621.080
0.93 COND(X)==
1.99
1'-51'(1T
-19.77980
40.26220
FU/18)-
[1(,)(0)==
F(S/14)-
DW (0)==
ST ER
0.09015
0.01917
0.94846
CRSQ -0.98841
55F<==2.438E-02
5SF:==2.680E-02
-1.78308
0.77175
NO'V'{1F~==2
1961 TO 1980
o.'7'8902
0.0368
NlJI-.JAF<==6
1961 TO 1980
0.96202 CRSQ ==
0.0438
LOG(EMTNT)==C65A+C65B*LOG(XXTNT)
21.86
288 :
COEF
NOB ==20
F:(.'li~GE -
RS(~==
SER ==
C65B
~3EF~-
iWE:==20
F<ANGE -
F<SQ -
I
I
l
~1
I
l
I
.I
I
l
293 t LOG (l.oJRT'?/F'DF~P IL_=--Q.~_6(·"H··C66F*D.80DEC6{:C66D)fq::.L6_LL'l6_+_C~66~BJ<;LOB(WEUSL_._._
PDUSCPI)+C66C*LOG(1+EMCNRT)+C66E*LOG(1+EMCNRT(-1»1
I
I
COEF
C·66A
C66F
C66D·
C66B
I·~''E...·oe'-.
0.14883
-0.25390
1.79364
5.75206
--0.89740
5T EF:
0.03632
0.06076
0.03755
..0.24866
0.63002
0.70836
120.51.600
2.44942
-6.76150
7.21334
9.129.99
-1.26688
I
I
I
I
I
H-30
295:XXCM:::C68A+C68B*R.DPI8N(-1)+C68C*D61.74+C68D*WEALTH(-1)*POP(-1)
NOB :::16
F<ANGE -
F~SQ :::
SEF<==
57.55
NOVAR =4
1'7'65 TO 1980
0+98863 CRSQ =
6.5512 SSR =
0.98579
515.018
F(3/12)
DW (0)==
347.875
1.68 COND(X):::
COEF VALUE ST ER T-STAT
I
\
I
I,C68A 41.17560 15.84540 2.59858
C68B -0.12347 0.03746 -3.29566
,\I C68C -30.74570 S.13001 -3.78175
C68D 1.98004E-04 3.12176E-05 6.34269
296:LOG(EMCM):::C69A+C69B*LOG(XXCM)
NOB :::20
FU~dWE ==
F~SG :::
::3ER :=
lS+,67
NOI"'AF.:==2
1961 TO 1980
0.95761 CRSQ =0.95525
0.0696 SSR =8.708E-02
F(j./18)-406.583
DWeO)==0.66 COND(X)-
\J
COEF
C69A
VALUE
-1.99105
O~65356
ST ER
0.14562
0.03241
T-SHiT
-1.2).67290
20.1.t,.380
297:LOG(WRCMPU/PDRPI)=C70A+C70F*D.80DEC6fC70B*LOGCWEUS/PDUSCPI)+
C70C*LOG(1+EMCNRTe-2»+C70D*LOG(1+EMCNRT(-1.»
COEF VALUE 8T ER T-8T'::lT
C-',""J A 4.53206 0.01306 347.01400I\'H
C70F 0.17780 o +·(j5268 3+37538
C70B 0.72318 0.26940 2 t 684 l {'5
(:70(:1.22075 0.59194 2 t ()6229
C7 1)D 1.43879 0.58295 2.4.1)81.3
J
H-31
lJ
I \L~~J
lJ
NOB ==20 NaVAR =.5
RANGE ==1961 TO 1980
RSQ -0.77282 CRSG ==0.71224
SER ==0.0479 88R ==3.444E-02
3.02
F(4/15)-12.757
DW(O)==1.65 CONDeX)==
299:XXPU -C72A+C72B*R.DPI8N(-1)+C72C*R.DPI8X+C72D*R.DPI8N(-2)
cmmex)-
497.984
2.67 CONDeX)==
1.62 CONDeX)=
T-STAT
T-STAT
-45.62580
-1.25677
-43.15370
F(3/14)=
DW(O)==
FC·1/15)-
DWeO)==
F(2/17)==
[lvH 0)==
347.01400
3.37538
2 +684·45
"2.06229
2.46813
ST ER
ST ER
0+05268
0.58295
0.98873
30.828
0.01306
0.26940
0.59194
0.06610
0.03876
0.01923
VALLIE
VALUE
·4 +53206
0.1.7780
0.72318
1.22075
1.·43879
-3.01609
-0.04871
0.83004
NOVAR =4
1963 TO 1980
0.99072 CRSO =
1.4839 SSR =
NO')AR ==5
10:;'61 TO 1980
().7'72B2 CF~SQ =0.71224
0.0479 SSR ==3.444E-02
3v()2
49.68
..
300:LOGeEMPU):=C73A+C73C*PIPEC-l)+C73B*LOGCXXPU)
COEF VALUE ST ER T-STAT
C72A 3.76867 1.07636 3.50130
C72B 0.01123 0.00744 1.50922
C72C 0.01374 0·00599 2.29492
C72[1 0.02553 0.00705 3.61830
NOB ::::18
r:;:ANGE ::::
F:S(~=
SER =
COEF
NOB ::::20
RANGE ==
F<SQ -
SEF..:-
C74F
C74B
C731~
C73C
C74[1
COEF
NOB ==20 NOVAR =3
RANGE -1961 TO 1980
RSQ =0.9914 CRSO =0.99039
SER ==0.0366 SSR ==2.274E-02
16.58
I
1
I
1
l
1
'I
--I
1
1
1
I
I
---301-:---I::BG-HmeriF'U;/-p-rIFtr'-I-)--=-C7#(n~C7~F*If-;-8-OTfE-C6TC7:-'fB *[0GCtJJ~E='L~IS=-/~FC-:::'r=-,L-Js=-C·C=-=F=-C'I=----)..L.c-,....------
C74C*LOGC1+EMCNRT(-2»+C74D*LOGC1+EMCNRT(-1»1
l
I
I
I
I
H-32
303:XXDW =C71A+C71B*R.DPI8N+C71C*R.DPI8X+C71D*R.DPI8XC-l)*R.DPI8X+
C71E*WEALTHC-l)*POPC-l)
-1.08627
1.03628
6.48977
-4.57376
4.40671
NOB =16 NOVAR ==r::"....'
I=\:ANGE =1965 TO 1980
F,SQ =0.99494 CRSQ =0.9931
[1,
SER ==2.6783 SSR =78.907
63+22
COEF VALUE ST ER
C71A -4.27825 3.93849
C7iB 0.01682 0.01623
C71C 0.14847 0.02288
C71D -2.9501'6E-04 6.45149E-05
Cl'lE 5.26814E-05 1.19548E-05
FC4/1U =
DW CO)=
T-STAT
540.533
1.40 CONDCX)=
304:XXDRNT -C76A+C76B*R.DPI8N+C76C*R.DPI8X+C76D*R.DPI8NC~1)+C76E*
R.DPI8XC-1)
NOB =19 NOVAR =5
RANGE =1962 TO 1980
RSQ =0.99701 CRSQ =0.99616
SER =3.7780 SSR =199.828
62.81
F(4/14)=1167.510
DWCO)=2.91 CONDCX)=
COEF VALUE ST ER T-STf'iT
l1 C76A.-8.12942 2.98554 -2.72293
C'76B 0.06973 0.02099 3.32245
C76C 0.07878 0.02108 3.73662
C76D 0.091'90 0.02020 4.84584
C76E -0.09266 0.01603 -5.78080
H-33
I
)
I
,]
)
I
~'1
1
J
1
'J
I
)
7017.800
1.28 CONDeX)-
Fe:l./Hl>-
tll~f(O)=
re1/1S)-6467.990
DWeO)=0.46 CONDeX)=
NOVAR =2
1961 TO 1980
0.99744 CRSQ =0.9973
0.0239 SSR =1.032E-02
306:LOGeEMDRNT)=C75AfC75B*LOGeXXDRNT)
NOB =20
F~(':.,NGE =
F.:SQ =
~3ER :::
COEr VALUE ST EF.:T--STAT
e77A -2.35546 0.04393 --53.61710
f:77B 0.87700 0.01090 80.42340
305:LOG(EMDW)=C77AfC77B*LOGeXXDW)
NOB =20 NOVAR =2
RANGE -1961 TO 1980
RSQ =0.99722 CRSQ =0.99707
SER =0.0266 SSR =1.278E-02
14 (,68
C?5B
-2~37192'
1.00465
0.05817
0.01199
H-34
-·40 t ,77430
83.772:1.0 I
)
-)
I
I
I
308:LOGCWRDW/PDRPI)=C78A+C78F*D.80DEC6+C78B*LOGCWEUS/PDUSCPI)+C78C
*LOGC1+EMCNRT)+C78D*LOGC1+EMCNRTC-l»+C78E*LOGC1+EMCNRTC-2»
I 16.00II
NOB =20
F(Ai'.!GE =
RSQ =
E:ER =
11
1-].
NO',,'AR ==6
1961 TO 1980'
0.87863 CRSQ =0.83528
0.0275 SSR ==1.058E-02
FCS/14)-
DW CO)=
20.269
1.68 CONDCX)-
11
COEF
C78A
C78F
C78B
C78C
C78D
C78E
VALUE
4.34562
0.07522
0.72197
1.69244
0.14758
0.58088
ST ER
0.00784
0.03026
0.15520
0.43452
0.59482
0.44101
T-STAT
554.30800
2.48574
4.65192
3.89499
0.24812
1.31715
[]
309:LOGCWRDR/PDRPI)=C79A+C79F*D.80DEC6+C79B*LOGCWEUS/PDUSCPI)+C+
C79D)*LOGC1+EMCNRTC-1»+C79E*LOGC1+EMCNRTC-2»
NOB =20
RANGE =
RSQ _.
SER =
NOVAR =5
1961 TO 1980
0.6895 CRSQ =0.6067
0.0273 SSR =1.122E-02
F(4/15)==
Dl.)CO)=2.28
8.327
CONDCX)-.
u
[J
U
I I
LI
COEF
C79A
C79F
C79B
C79D
C7<7'E
I,,)ALUE
3.83950
-0.04314°
0.61019
0.96035
-0.91468
ST ER
0.00745
0.03006
0.15376
0.33271
0.33784
H-35
T-ST{iT
~H5.09EH)O
-1.43510
3.96855
2.88643
-2.70742
318:LOGCWRFI/PDRPI)=C82A+C82F*D.80D~C6+C82B*LOG(WEUS/PDUSCPI)+C82
*LOGC1+EMCNRT)+C82C*LOG(1+EMCNRT(-_=1,),)~,
NOB =21 NOVAR =2 '
RANGE =1961 TO 1981
RSQ =0.99604 CRSQ -0.99583
SER =0.0386 SSR =2.826E-02
17.03
)
I
I
)
)
'I
.J
I
."~
)
COND on -
COND(X)-
4773.880
1.57
0.60
1096.090
1.24 CONDCX)-
T--SniT
-8.14155
-2.87209
45.47830
568.82900
7.12106
13.52440
1.96150
2.44133
-50.46620
69.09300
Fe4/15)=
Dl..)(O)=
T-STAT
F<1/19)=
DW (0)=
F(2/13)=
DW (0)=
I
I
I
--_.~~---~~_.._--_..~-----_.._---_._._---_._--_.----~--~-~--_.._.,._-_._---""
,]
I
I
I
I
1
ST EF,
H-36
ST ER
0.00698
0.02789
0.14035
0.30839
0.31045
0.07190
0.01421
5.53236
6.16004
ST ER
0.9932
939.228
5.31543E-06
VALUE
VALUE
3.97093
0.19859
1.89818
0.60491
0.75790
C80A+C80C*D71.73+C80B*WEALTHC-1)*POPC-1)
-3.62853
0.98204
-50.15230
-15.88940
2.41737E-04
NO\)AF~=5
1961 TO 1980
0.94077 CRSQ =0.92498
0.0253 SSR =9.630E-03
VALUE
NOl",'AR =3
1965 TO 1980
0.9941 CRSQ =
8.4999 SSR =
LOGCEMFI)=C81A+C81B*LOGeXXFI)
XXFI =
2.97
COEF
NOB =20
F,ANGE =
RSQ -
SEF,--
C82(~~
C82F
cti2B
C82D
317 :
316 :
COEF
C8lA
C81B
NOB =16
F:ANGE -
F,SQ =
SEF,-
COEF
C80A
C80C
C80B
II
320:XXS8NT =C84A+C84B*R.DPI8N+C84C*R.DPI8XC-1)+C84D*WEALTHC-1)*POPC
-1)
NOB =16 NOVAR =4
RANGE =1965 TO 1980
RSQ =0.99276 CRSQ =0.99095
SER =5.0981 SSR =311.890
30.09
F(3/12)=548.673
DWCO)=2.13 CONDCX)-
COEF VALUE ST ER T-STAT
C84A -26.91120 5.30315 -5.07457
I"C84B 0.04680 0.01557 3.00657
I j C84C -0.05933 0.01786 -3.32122
C84D 9.73265E-05 1.17353E-05 8.29346
321:XXSB =C83A+(+C83C)*R.DPI8X+C83D*R.DPI8X(-1)+C83EtWEALTHC-1)*POP
(-:l )
NOB =16 NaVAR =4
RANGE -1965 TO 1980
RSQ -0.97912 CR5Q =0.97391
SER =4.2878 SSR =220.627
7.28
F(3/12)=187.610
DWCO)=2.19 CONDCX)-
IJ
U
U
I
COEF
C83A
C83C
C83D
C83E
VALUE
-4.91663
0.13914
0.03976
3.43157E-05
5T ER
3.15771
0.01415
0.01584
3.11547E-06
H-37
T-STAT
-1.55702
9.83411
2.51112
11.01460
324:LOGCWRSNB/PDRPI)=C86AfC86F*D.80DEC6+C86B*LOGeWEUS/PDUSCPI)+
C86C*LOGC1+EMCNRT)fC66D*LOG(1+EMCNRT(-1»fC86E*LOGe1+EMCNRTe-2»
COEF VALUE ST ER T-STAT
Co'1',3.77964 0.01710 221.02400.....OH
C86F 0.22935 0.06600 3.47475
C86B 1.36430 0.33853 4.03004
C86C 2.78304 0.94780 2.93630
C86D -0.23809 1.29746'-0.18350
CE6E 2.13938 0.96196 2.22398
I
],
j
j
'j
'\1
·1
I
I
II
]1
1
]
jl
II
,j,
I
,I
r
-51.78730
104.04200
T-STAT
.:-_22.•B2570
128.03700
F(1/18)-1.08E+04
DWeO)=0.98 CONDeX)=
F(1 I 18)=L 6 4E +04
DW(O)=0.76 CONDeX)=
F(5/14)=14.652
DWCO)=0.86 CONDeX)-
ST ER
0.04397
0.00969
ST ER
Q.02612
0.00788
VALUE
-2.27710
1.00835
VALUE
-:2.!.~la;:~z
1.00842
322:LOGCEMS8NT)=C85A+C85B*LOGeXXS8NT)
C85B
NOB =20 NOVAR =2
RANGE -1961 TO 1980
RSQ =0.99834 CRSQ -0.99825
SER =0.0228 SSR =9.376E-03
17.17
COEF
CE:5A
H-38
323:LOGeEMSB)=C87A+C87B*LOGeXXSB)
NOB =20 NOVAR =2
RANGE -1961 TO 1980
RSQ =0.9989 CRSQ =0.99884
SER =0.0250 SSR =1.128E-02
9.24
RANGE =1961 TO 1980
RSQ -0.83956 CRSQ =0.78226
SER =0.0600 SSR =5.033E-02
6.00
COEF
.C87A ...__
C87B
325:LOGCWRSB/PDRPI)=C88AfC88F*D.80DEC6fC88E*D61.70+C88B*LOGCWEUS/
PDUSCPI)+C88C*LOG(1+EMCNRT)fC88D*LOG(1+EMCNRTC-1»+C88G*LOG(l+EMCNRTC
'-2))
NOB ::20
r,ANGE =
F:SQ =
SER =
NOVAR =7
1961 TO 1'7'80
0.95023 CRSQ =0.92727
0.0632 SSR =5.193E-02
334:LOG(XXGF)=Cl01A+Cl01B*LOG(EMGF)
F(6/13)-
[lv..1(0)=41.371
1.92 COND(X)-
NOB =19 NOVAR =2
RANGE =1961 TO 1979
RSQ =0.16241 CRSQ =0.11314
SER =0.0312 SSR =1.656E-02
103.99
F(1/17)::3.296
[I~(O)::0.49 CON[I(X)
COEF
C101fi
I 1 Cl01B[.J
VALUE
5.58779
0.16273
ST ER
0.37237
0.09690
H-39
T-STAT
15.00610
1.67945
343:LOG (WRGL/PDRP I)=C1 02AfC1()2F*D .•80DEC6+C1 02JI*rL6L.6_9±C_l0.2C*LOG_(_1~-t
··-~---Ei'·jCNRTr+CT02f:*CO·GT~EUS7F~riOsCF;-:t)-·----.-..--...., -
NOB =20 NOVAR =4
RANGE =1961 TO 1980
RSQ -0.94424 CRSQ =0.93378
SER =0.0473 SSR =3.582E-02
3.90
=C92AfC92F*D.80DEC6+C92B*LOG(WEUS/PDUSCPI)+C92C341:LOG (WRGS/PDRP 1)
*[161.73
I
l
)
J
1
'J
J
j,
-J
II
_.-.._._~_....._•.....-
]1
1
]
15.211
COND(X)=0.22
90.312
1.06 COND(X)_
T-SW~T
T-STAT
217.32900
F(0/19)-
DW (0)=
19.y .-225 0(Y'
5.32240 '
8.94205
-9.70994
F(3/16)=
DW (0)=
C'+138
ST EF:
ST ER
0.44462
0.01907
·,,~--0.02-172······
0.05622
0.26893
0.02418
=C89A+LOG(W~US/PDUSCPI)
SSR =
\)ALUE
4.14408
,,'ALUE
-0+23483
0.0853
NO'v'AF:=1
19.61 TO 1980
0.44462 CRSQ =
L'OG (WF:GC/PDRP I)
1.00
335 :
COEF
:3ER =
CB9A
NOB =20
Fo:(.lNGE =
F:SQ -
COEF
c S·~2A "~__.._.._.~~~t_+__..2.8_3__'Z4~~__
,~~~-C92F'0.29925
C92B 2.40477
i>JOB =20
F:(·lI'-I GE =
F.:SQ =
SER =
5-.02
COEF
NO\,..IAR =5
1961 TO 1980
0.94901 CRSQ =
0.0353 SSR =
VALUE
0.93542
1.867E-02
ST ER
F(4/15)--
DW (0)=1.87
69.798
COND(X)=
J;.
}
,.j,
Cl02A
Cl02F
Cl02D
C102C
Cl02B
4.09380
0.24326
-0.08986
1.68094
1.951'7'4
0.02027
0.04742
0.02486
0.36066
0.26951
H-40
201.93100
5.12951
-3.61516
4.66074
7.24264 )
1
348:LOG<XXGA)=Cl04A+Cl04B*LOGCEMGA)
NOB =19 NOVAR =2
.~ANGE =1961 TO 19~~
RSQ =0.99634 CRSQ =·0.99613
SER =0.0281 SSR =1.339E-02
12.91
FCl/17)=4631.660
DWCO):::1.95 CONDCX)-
COEF VALUE ST EF<T-STAT
Cl04A 2.28334 0.04182 54.59890
:1
C104B 0.96757 0.01422 68.05550
350:XXA9 =C90A+C90B*CEMA9+EMPROFIS)
NOB =19 NOVAR =2
RANGE =1961 TO 1979
RSQ =0.88599 CRSQ =0.87929
SER =5.1414 SSR =449.375
10.16
FCl/17)=132.115
DWCO)=2.13 CONDCX)=
COEF
C90A
C90B
VALUE
-43.64550
13.92170
ST ER
6.05120
1.21120
T-STAT
-7.21269
11.49410
351:LOGCWRM9A9/PDRPI)=C95A+C95F*D.80DEC6+C95B*LOGCWEUS/PDUSCPI)+
C95C*LOGC1+EMCNRT)+C95D*LOGC1+EMCNRTC-1»
NOB :::20
F:'f.1NGE -
F<SG!=
SEF:=
NO'v'AR =5
1961 TO 1'7'80
0.81971 CRSQ =0.77163
0.0421 SSR =2.663E-02
F(4/15)=
D(..,I(O)=
17.050
1.50 CONDCX)=
COEF
C95i~'J
(:95I~
C95B
(:95(:
C<;'5D
VALUE
4.13658
0.15724
1.57290
0.90165
0.70681
ST ER
0.01161
0.04638
0.23340
0.51283
0.51625
H-41
T--STAT
356.33400
3.39060
6.73918
1.•75817
1.36914
359:LOG(EMPR01)::::C100AfC100C*D61.66fC100B*LOG(EM98)
COEF ;VALUE ST EF<T-STf;T
C100A -4.35555 1.18255 -3.68318
C100C -0.99303 0.14017 -7t08426C100B1.25095 0.23555 5.31071
F(2/17)=
Dl.\1 (0)::::
147.382
0.81 CONDeX)-
0.93906
0.638
NOB ::::20 NOVAR =3
RANGE =1961 TO 1980
RSQ =0.94547 CRSQ =
SER =0.1937 SSR =
59.08
}
}
-1-
j
.~
1
}
)
H-42
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
APPENDIX I
MAP REGIONALIZATION MODEL LISTING
(Including Parameters)
MODEL:A83.CD
PURPOSE:This model allocates statewide projections of population,
employment,and households from the MAP economic model to the
census division level.
DATE:
SYMBOLS:
May 2,1983
ENDOGENOUS:
M.Ol M.02 M.03 M.04 M.OS M.06 M.07 M.08 M.09 M.10 M.Il
M.12 M.13 M.14 M.1S M.16 M.17 M.18 M.19 M.20 M.21 M.22
M.23 M.24 M.2S M.26 M.27 M.28 M.29 PCEN.06
CONSTRUCT:
ADJ B.AG B.AM B.FG B.NR B.RB B.ST BAG BAM BFG BNR BRB
BST G.AG G.AM G.FG G.NR G.RB G.ST GAG GAM GFG GNR GRB
GST M.AG M.AM M.FG M.NR M.RB M.ST P.AG P.AM P.FG P.NR
P.RB P.ST P.Ol P.02 P.03 P.04 P.OS P.06 P.07 P.08 P.09
P.10 P.l1 P.12 P.13 P.14 P.lS P.16 P.17 P.18 P.19 P.20
P.21 P.22 P.23 P.24 P.2S P.26 P.27 P.28 P.29 PCEN.01
PCEN.02 PCEN.03 PCEN.04 PCEN.OS PCEN.07 PCEN.08 PCEN.09
PCEN.10 PCEN.Il PCEN.12 PCEN.13 PCEN.14 PCEN.1S PCEN.16
PCEN.17 PCEN.18 PCEN.19 PCEN.20 PCEN.21 PCEN.22 PCEN.23
PRE.ST PRE.01 PRE.02 PRE.03 PRE.04 PRE.OS PRE.06 PRE.07
PRE.08 PRE.09 PRE.10 PRE.ll PRE.12 PRE.13 PRE.14 PRE.lS
PRE.16 PRE.17 PRE.18 PRE.19 PRE.20 PRE.2I PRE.22 PRE.23
PRE.24 PRE.2S PRE.26 PRE.27 PRE.28 PRE.29 S.AG S.AM S.FG
S.NR S.RB S.ST
DEFINITION:
ADJHH B.IR G.IR HH.AG HH.AM HH.FG HH.IR HHCEN.ST HHCEN.OI
HHCEN.02 HHCEN.03 HHCEN.04 HHCEN.OS HHCEN.06 HHCEN.07
HHCEN.08 HHCEN.09 HHCEN.I0 HHCEN.II HHCEN.12 HHCEN.13
HHCEN.14 HHCEN.1S HHCEN.16 HHCEN.17 HHCEN.18 HHCEN.19
HHCEN.20 HHCEN.21 HHCEN.22 HHCEN.23 HPRE.ST HPRE.01 HPRE.02
HPRE.03 HPRE.04 HPRE.OS HPRE.06 HPRE.07 HPRE.08 HPRE.09
HPRE.10 HPRE.11 HPRE.12 HPRE.13 HPRE.14 HPRE.1S HPRE.16
HPRE.17 HPRE.18 HPRE.19 HPRE.20 HPRE.21 HPRE.22 HPRE.23 M.IR
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
P.IR S.IR S.Ol S.01.01 S .01.02 S .01.03 S.01.04 S.01.05
S .01.06 S.01.07 S.01.08 S .01.09 S .01.10 S.01.11 S .01.12
S.01.13 S .01.14 S .01.15 S.01.16 S.01.17 S.01.18 S.01.19
S .01.20 S .01.21 S .01.22 S .01.23 S.01.24 S.01.25 S.01.26
S.01.27 S .01.28 S .01.29 S.02 S.02.01 S.02.02
I
),
I
PARAMETER:
A.01.01 A.01.02 A.01.03 A.01.04 A.01.05 A.01.06 A.01.07
--_···~··~A-;OT:08~-lt;-0J:;09·-It;-OLJ:OA;OI~I1 A.OT:12-··A.OI:13 X:01:14
A.01.15 A.01.16 A.01.17 A.01.18 A.01.19 A.01.20 A.01.21
A.01.22 A.01.23 A.01.24 A.01.25 A.01.26 A.01.27 A.01.28
A.01.29 A.02.01 A.02.02
EXOGENOUS:
B.01 B.02 B.04 B.05 B.06 B.08 B.09 B.11 B.12
B.16 B.17 B.18 B.21 B.24 B.25 B.26 B.27 B.29
B02 B04 B05 B06 B08 B09 B11 B12 B14 B15 B16
B21 B24 B25 B26 B27 B29 G.01 G.02 G.04 G.05
G.09 G.11 G.12 G.14 G.15 G.16 G.17 G.18 G.21
G.26 G.27 G.29 G01 G02 G04 G05 G06 G08 G09
G15 G16 G17 G18 G21 G24 G25 G26 G27 G29 HH
l
l
)
l
B.14 B.15
BETA B01
B17 B18
G.06 G.08
G.24 G.25
G11 G12 G14
POP
S.29 S.29.01 S.29.02 S.29.03 S.29.04 S.29.05
S.29.08 S.29.09 S.29.10 S.29.11 S.29.12
S.29.15 S.29.16 S.29.17 S.29.18 S.29.19
S.29.22 S.29.23 S.29.24 S.29.25 S.29.26
S.29.29
S.28.29
S.29.07
S.29.14
S.29.21
S.29.28
S.28.28
S.29.06
S.29.13
S.29.20
S.29.27
A.29.01 A.29.02 A.29.03 A.29.04 A.29.05 A.29.06
A.29.07 A.29.08 A.29.09 A.29.10 A.29.11 A.29.12 A.29.13
A.29.14 A.29.15 A.29.16 A.29.17 A.29.18 A.29.19 A.29.20
A.29.21 A.29.22 A.29.23 A.29.24 A.29.25 A.29.26 A.29.27
A.29.28 A.29.29 B.03 B.07 B.10 B.13 B.19 B.20 B.22 B.23
B.28 B03 B07 B10 B13 B19 B20 B22 B23 B28 G.03 G.07 G.10
G.13 -G.19G.20 -G.22 G.23G.2t3 G03 G07 G10 G13 Gi9G20
G22 G23 G28 HHSZ.01 HHSZ.02-HHSZ.03 HHSZ.04·HHSZ.05·HHSZ.06
HHSZ.07 HHSZ.08 HHSZ.09 HHSZ:To HHSZ.11 HHSZ.12 HHSZ.13
HHSZ.14 HHSZ.15 HHSZ.16 HHSZ.17 HHSZ.18 HHSZ.19 HHSZ.20
HHSZ.21 HHSZ.22 HHSZ.23 IM.01.01 IM.01.02 IM.01.03 IM.01.04
IM.01.05 IM.01.06 IM.01.07 IM.Ol.08 IM.01.09 IM.Ol.10
IM.Ol.11 IM.01.12 IM.01.13 IM.01.14 IM.01.15 IM.Ol.16
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
IM.01.17
IM.Ol.23
1M.01.29
IM.Ol.18 IM.Ol.19 IM.Ol.20
IM.Ol.24 IM.Ol.2S IM.Ol.26
IM.02.01 IM.02.02
IM.Ol.2l IM.Ol.22
IM.Ol.27 IM.Ol.28
IM.29.04
IM.29.10
IM.29.16
IM.29.22
IM.29.28
PGQ.1S
PGQ.23
PM.09
PM.18
PM.27
IM.28.29 IM.29.01 IM.29.02 IM.29.03
IM.29.06 IM.29.07 IM.29.08 IM.29.09
IM.29.12 IM.29.13 IM.29.14 IM.29.1S
IM.29.18 IM.29.19 IM.29.20 IM.29.21
IM.29.24 IM.29.2S IM.29.26 IM.29.27
PC.04.16 PC.04.2S PC.06.2S PC.08.16
PGQ.02 PGQ.03 PGQ.04 PGQ.OS PGQ.06 PGQ.07
PGQ.09 PGQ.10 PGQ.ll PGQ.12 PGQ.13 PGQ.14
PGQ.17 PGQ.18 PGQ.19 PGQ.20 PGQ.21 PGQ.22
PM.02 PM.03 PM.04 PM.OS PM.06 PM.07 PM.08
PM.ll PM.12 PM.13 PM.14 PM.1S PM.16 PM.17
PM.20 PM.21 PM.22 PM.23 PM.24 PM.2S PM.26
PM.29
IM.28.28
IM.29.0S
IM.29.ll
IM.29.17
IM.29.23
IM.29.29
PGQ.Ol
PGQ.08
PGQ.16
PM.Ol
PM.10
PM.19
PM.28
EQUATIONS:
Total Employment (M.aa)in region aa
1:M.Ol =(A.Ol.Ol*M.Ol+A.Ol.02*M.02+A.Ol.03*M.03+A.Ol.04*
M.04+A.Ol.OS*M.OS+A.Ol.06*M.06+A.Ol.07*M.07+A.Ol.08*M.08
+A.Ol.09*M.09+A.Ol.10*M.10+A.Ol.ll*M.ll+A.Ol.12*M.12+
A.Ol.13*M.13+A.Ol.14*M.14+A.Ol.1S*M.1S+A.Ol.16*M.16+
A.Ol.17*M.17+A.Ol.18*M.18+A.Ol.19*M.19+A.Ol.20*M.20+
A.Ol.2l*M.2l+A.Ol.22*M.22+A.Ol.23*M.23+A.Ol.24*M.24+
A.Ol.2S*M.2S+A.Ol.26*M.26+A.Ol.27*M.27+A.Ol.28*M.28+
A.Ol.29*M.29)*BETA+B.Ol+G.Ol
2:M.02 =(A.02.0l*M.Ol+A.02.02*M.02+A.02.03*M.03+A.02.04*
M.04+A.02.0S*M.OS+A.02.06*M.06+A.02.07*M.07+A.02.08*M.08
+A.02.09*M.09+A.02.l0*M.10+A.02.ll*M.ll+A.02.l2*M.12+
A.02.l3*M.13+A.02.l4*M.14+A.02.1S*M.1S+A.02.l6*M.16+
A.02.l7*M.17+A.02.l8*M.18+A.02.l9*M.19+A.02.20*M.20+
A.02.2l*M.2l+A.02.22*M.22+A.02.23*M.23+A.02.24*M.24+
A.02.2S*M.2S+A.02.26*M.26+A.02.27*M.27+A.02.28*M.28+
A.02.29*M.29)*BETA+B.02+G.02
1-3
M.06 =(A.06.01*M.Ol+A.06.02*M.02+A.06.03*M.03+A.06.04*
M.04+A.06.0S*M.OS+A.06.06*M.06+A.06.07*M.07+A.06.08*M.08
+A.06 .09*M.09+A.06 .'10*M.10+A.06 .l1*M.l1+A.06 .12*M.12+
A.06.13*M.13+A.06.14*M.14+A.06.1S*M.lS+A.06.16*M.16+
.._~.._~.A._06_._17~)l:M.17~-I:A .06_.18~M.-18+A.-06.19->'<M.-19+A.06 .20~M ..20+~---
A.06.21*M.21+A.06.22*M.22+A.06.23*M.23+A~~QQL2A~M~2AY~__
A.06.2S*M.2S+A.06.26*M.26+A.06.27*M.27+A.06.28*M.28+
A.06.29*M.29)*BETA+B.06+G.06
3 :
4:
S:
6:
7:
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
M.03 =(A.03.01*M.01+A.03.02*M.02+A.03.03*M.03+A.03.04*
M.04+A.03.0S*M.OS+A.03.06*M.06+A.03.07*M.07+A.03.08*M.08
+A.03.09*M.09+A.03.10*M.I0+A.03.11*M.11+A.03.12*M.12+
A.03.13*M.13+A.03.14*M.14+A.03.1S*M.1S+A.03.16*M.16+
A.03.17*M.17+A.03.18*M.18+A.03.19*M.19+A.03.20*M.20+
A.03.21*M.21+A.03.22*M.22+A.03.23*M.23+A.03.24*M.24+
A.03.2S*M.2S+A.03.26*M.26+A.03.27*M.27+A.03.28*M.28+
A.03.29*M.29)*BETA+B.03+G.03
M.04 =(A.04.01*M.01+A.04.02*M.02+A.04.03*M.03+A.04.04*
M.04+A;04.0S*M.OS+A.04.06*M.06+A.04.07*M.07+A.04.08*M.08
+A.04.09*M.09+A.04.10*M.I0+A.04.11*M.ll+A.04.12*M.12+
A.04.13*M.13+A.04.14*M.14+A.04.1S*M.lS+A.04.16*M.16+
A.04.17*M.17+A.04.18*M.18+A.04.19*M.19+A.04.20*M.20+
A.04.21*M.21+A.04.22*M.22+A.04.23*M.23+A.04.24*M.24+
A.04.2S*M.2S+A.04.26*M.26+A.04.27*M.27+A.04.28*M.28+
A.04.29*M.29)*BETA+B.04+G.04
M.OS =(A.OS.01*M.Ol+A.OS.02*M.02+A.OS.03*M.03+A.OS.04*
M.04+A.OS.OS*M.OS+A.OS.06*M.06+A.OS.07*M.07+A.OS.08*M.08
+A.OS.09*M.09+A.OS.10*M.10+A.OS.ll*M.11+A.OS.12*M.12+
A.OS.13*M.13+A.OS.14*M.14+A.OS.1S*M.1S+A.OS.16*M.16+
A.OS.17*M.17+A.OS.18*M.18+A.OS.19*M.19+A.OS.20*M.20+
A.OS.21*M.21+A.OS.22*M.22+A.OS.23*M.23+A.OS.24*M.24+
.-..'--A;-OS-;-2S*M:-25 +K.OS;Z6*IL26iT:-OS·:ZT*M.·27+A:OS:28*~r:-28+
A.OS.29*M.29)*BETA+B.OS+G.OS
M.07 =(A.07.01*M.Ol+A.07.02*M.02+A.07.03*M.03+A.07.04*
M.04+A.07.0S*M.OS+A.07.06*M.06+A.07.07*M.07+A.07.08*M.08
+A.OT.09*M.09+A.OT.10*M.I0+A.07 .l1*M.l1+A.07.12*M.12+
A.07 .13*M.13+A.07.14*M.14+A.07.1S*M.lS+A.07 .16*M.16+
A.07 .17*M.17i-A.()i.i8*M.18+A.07 .19*M.19+A.07.20*M.20+
A.07.21*M.21+A.07.22*M.22+A.07.23*M.23+A.07.24*M.24+
A.07.2S*M.2S+A.07.26*M.26+A.07.27*M.27+A.07.28*M.28+
A.07.29*M.29)*BETA+B.07+G.07
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
8:M.08 =(A.08.01*M.01+A.08.02*M.02+A.08.03*M.03+A.08.04*
M.04+A.08.05*M.05+A.08.06*M.06+A.08.07*M.07+A.08.08*M.08
+A.08.09*M.09+A.08.10*M.lO+A.08.1l*M.1l+A.08.l2*M.12+
A.08.l3*M.l3+A.08.l4*M.l4+A.08.l5*M.l5+A.08.16*M.l6+
A.08.l7*M.l7+A.08.l8*M.l8+A.08.l9*M.19+A.08.20*M.20+
A.08.21*M.2l+A.08.22*M.22+A.08.23*M.23+A.08.24*M.24+
A.08.25*M.25+A.08.26*M.26+A.08.27*M.27+A.08.28*M.28+
A.08.29*M.29)*BETA+B.08+G.08
9:M.09 =(A.09.0l*M.01+A.09.02*M.02+A.09.03*M.03+A.09.04*
M.04+A.09.05*M.05+A.09.06*M.06+A.09.07*M.07+A.09.08*M.08
+A.09.09*M.09+A.09.l0*M.lO+A.09.1l*M.ll+A.09.12*M.12+
A.09.l3*M.l3+A.09.14*M.l4+A.09.l5*M.15+A.09.16*M.l6+
A.09.l7*M.17+A.09.l8*M.l8+A.09.19*M.l9+A.09.20*M.20+
A.09.21*M.2l+A.09.22*M.22+A.09.23*M.23+A.09.24*M.24+
A.09.25*M.25+A.09.26*M.26+A.09.27*M.27+A.09.28*M.28+
A.09.29*M.29)*BETA+B.09+G.09
10:M.lO =(A.lO.01*M.Ol+A.10.02*M.02+A.10.03*M.03+A.lO.04*
M.04+A.10.05*M.05+A.lO.06*M.06+A.lO.07*M.07+A.lO.08*M.08
+A.10.09*M.09+A.10.10*M.lO+A.10.1l*M.ll+A.10.l2*M.l2+
A.lO.13*M.l3+A.lO.l4*M.l4+A.lO.l5*M.l5+A.lO.l6*M.l6+
A.lO.l7*M.l7+A.lO.l8*M.l8+A.lO.19*M.l9+A.lO.20*M.20+
A.lO.21*M.2l+A.lO.22*M.22+A.lO.23*M.23+A.10.24*M.24+
A.lO.25*M.25+A.lO.26*M.26+A.lO.27*M.27+A.10.28*M.2S+
A.10.29*M.29)*BETA+B.lO+G.lO
11:M.ll =(A.1l.01*M.Ol+A.ll.02*M.02+A.ll.03*M.03+A.11.04*
M.04+A.ll.05*M.05+A.ll.06*M.06+A.ll.07*M.07+A.ll.08*M.08
+A.ll.09*M.09+A.ll.10*M.lO+A.ll.1l*M.ll+A.ll.12*M.l2+
A.ll.l3*M.l3+A.ll.l4*M.l4+A.ll.l5*M.l5+A.ll.l6*M.l6+
A.ll.l7*M.l7+A.ll.l8*M.lS+A.ll.l9*M.l9+A.ll.20*M.20+
A.ll.2l*M.2l+A.ll.22*M.22+A.1l.23*M.23+A.ll.24*M.24+
A.ll.25*M.25+A.ll.26*M.26+A.ll.27*M.27+A.ll.28*M.2S+
A.ll.29*M.29)*BETA+B.ll+G.ll
l2:M.l2 =(A.l2.0l*M.Ol+A.l2.02*M.02+A.l2.03*M.03+A.l2.04*
M.04+A.l2.05*M.05+A.l2.06*M.06+A.l2.07*M.07+A.l2.08*M.OS
+A.l2.09*M.09+A.l2.10*M.IO+A.12.1l*M.ll+A.l2.l2*M.l2+
A.12.l3*M.13+A.l2.l4*M.l4+A.l2.l5*M.l5+A.l2.l6*M.l6+
A.l2.l7*M.17+A.l2.l8*M.l8+A.l2.l9*M.l9+A.l2.20*M.20+
A.12.21*M.21+A.l2.22*M.22+A.l2.23*M.23+A.l2.24*M.24+
A.12.25*M.25+A.l2.26*M.26+A.l2.27*M.27+A.l2.28*M.2S+
A.l2.29*M.29)*BETA+B.l2+G.l2
1-5
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
13:M.13 =(A.13.01*M.01+A.13.02*M.02+A.13.03*M.03+A.13.04*
M.04+A.13.0S*M.OS+A.13.06*M.06+A.13.07*M.07+A.13.08*M.08
+A.13.09*M.09+A.13.10*M.10+A.13.11*M.ll+A.13.12*M.12+
A.13.13*M.13+A.13.14*M.14+A.13.1S*M.lS+A.13.16*M.16+
A.13.17*M.17+A.13.18*M.18+A.13.19*M.19+A.13.20*M.20+
A.13.21*M.21+A.13.22*M.22+A.13.23*M.23+A.13.24*M.24+
A.13.2S*M.2S+A.13.26*M.26+A.13.27*M.27+A.13.28*M.28+
A.13.29*M.29)*BETA+B.13+G.13
14:M.14 =(A.14.01*M.Ol+A.14.02*M.02+A.14.03*M.03+A.14.04*
M.04+A.14.0S*M.OS+A.14.06*M.06+A.14.07*M.07+A.14.08*M.08
+A.14.09*M.09+A.14.10*M.I0+A.14.11*M.l1+A.14.12*M.12+
A.14.13*M.13+A.14.14*M.14+A.14.1S*M.lS+A.14.16*M.16+
A.14.17*M.17+A.14.18*M.18+A.14.19*M.19+A.14.20*M.20+
A.14.21*M.21+A.14.22*M.22+A.14.23*M.23+A.14.24*M.24+
A.14.2S*M.2S+A.14.26*M.26+A.14.27*M.27+A.14.28*M.28+
A.14.29*M.29)*BETA+B.14+G.14
15:M.1S =(A.lS.01*M.Ol+A.1S.02*M.02+A.lS.03*M.03+A.lS.04*
M.04+A.1S.0S*M.OS+A.lS.06*M.06+A.1S.07*M.07+A.lS.08*M.08
+A.1S.09*M.09+A.lS.10*M.10+A.1S.11*M.l1+A.1S.12*M.12+
A.1S.13*M.13+A.lS.14*M.14+A.lS.1S*M.lS+A.lS.16*M.16+
A.lS ..17*M.17+A.15 .18*M.18+A.1S .19*M.19+A.lS.20*M.20+
--.--.----·----·-·--·--------···----A---d--5-.-2~1-*M.2~1+A.-1·5--.2-2*M.2-2"Tk;lS---;-23*M.23"'fA.l-S;24*M-;24+
A.lS.2S*M.2S+A.15.26*M.26+A.lS.27*M.27+A.lS.28*M.28+
A.lS.29*M.29)*BETA+B.lS+G.1S
16:M.16 =(A.16.01*M.Ol+A.16.02*M.02+A.16.03*M.03+A.16.04*
M.04+A.16.0S*M.05+A.16.06*M.06+A.16.07*M.07+A.16.08*M.08
+A.16.09*M.09+A.16.10*M.I0+A.16.11*M.ll+A.16.12*M.12+
___..~_~}6 .1~*M.~~~~:1.~~!.4*~~1~+~_I~lS_~1!..!.IS+A_.16_--,J.Q.*M ._U).-t
--.---------------A.16 .17*M.17+A.16 .18*M.18+A.16 .19*M.19+A.16.20*M.20+
A~lo~~r*M.21+A.16.22*M.22+A.16.23*M.23+A.16.24*M.24+
A.16.2S*M.2S+A.16.26*M.26+A.16.27*M.27+A.16.28*M.28+
A.16.29*M.29)*BETA+B.16+G.16
17:M.17 =(A.17.01*M.Ol+A.17.02*M.02+A.17.03*M.03+A.17.04*
Md)4+A.17;OS*M;OS+A.1L06*M.06+A.17;07*M;07+A.17.08*M.08
+A~1T.Q9*M.09+A.17.1()*M.lQ+A.17:Ii>%-M.l1+A.17 .12*M.12+
.-..A.17;13*M;13+A.17;14*M;14+A;IT.lS*M;lS+A;17 .16*M.16+
A.17.17*M.17+A.17.18*M.18+A.17.19*M.19+A.17.20*M.20+
A.17.21*M.21+A.17.22*M.22+A.17.23*M.23+A.17.24*M.24+
A.17.2S*M.2S+A.17.26*M.26+A.17.27*M.27+A.17.28*M.28+
A.17.29*M.29)*BETA+B.17+G.17
I-6
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Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
18:M.18 =(A.18.01*M.01+A.18.02*M.02+A.18.03*M.03+A.18.04*
M.04+A.18.05*M.05+A.18.06*M.06+A.18.07*M.07+A.18.08*M.08
+A.18.09*M.09+A.18.10*M.10+A.18.11*M.11+A.18.12*M.12+
A.18.13*M.13+A.18.14*M.14+A.18.15*M.15+A.18.16*M.16+
A.18.17*M.17+A.18.18*M.18+A.18.19*M.19+A.18.20*M.20+
A.18.21*M.21+A.18.22*M.22+A.18.23*M.23+A.18.24*M.24+
A.18.25*M.25+A.18.26*M.26+A.18.27*M.27+A.18.28*M.28+
A.18.29*M.29)*BETA+B.18+G.18
I
I )
()
I \,.i
19:
20:
M.19 =(A.19.01*M.Ol+A.19.02*M.02+A.19.03*M.03+A.19.04*
M.04+A.19.05*M.05+A.19.06*M.06+A.19.07*M.07+A.19.08*M.08
+A.19.09*M.09+A.19.10*M.10+A.19.11*M.11+A.19.12*M.12+
A.19.13*M.13+A.19.14*M.14+A.19.15*M.15+A.19.16*M.16+
A.19.17*M.17+A.19.18*M.18+A.19.19*M.19+A.19.20*M.20+
A.19.21*M.2l+A.19.22*M.22+A.19.23*M.23+A.19.24*M.24+
A.19.25*M.25+A.19.26*M.26+A.19.27*M.27+A.19.28*M.28+
A.19.29*M.29)*BETA+B.19+G.19
M.20 =(A.20.01*M.01+A.20.02*M.02+A.20.03*M.03+A.20.04*
M.04+A.20.05*M.05+A.20.06*M.06+A.20.07*M.07+A.20.08*M.08
+A.20.09*M.09+A.20.10*M.10+A.20.11*M.11+A.20.12*M.12+
A.20.13*M.13+A.20.14*M.14+A.20.15*M.15+A.20.16*M.16+
A.20.17*M.17+A.20.18*M.18+A.20.19*M.19+A.20.20*M.20+
A.20.21*M.2l+A.20.22*M.22+A.20.23*M.23+A.20.24*M.24+
A.20.25*M.25+A.20.26*M.26+A.20.27*M.27+A.20.28*M.28+
A.20.29*M.29)*BETA+B.20+G.20
21:M.21 =(A.2l.01*M.Ol+A.2l.02*M.02+A.21.03*M.03+A.21.04*
M.04+A.21.05*M.05+A.2l.06*M.06+A.21.07*M.07+A.2l.08*M.08
+A.21.09*M.09+A.21.10*M.10+A.21.11*M.11+A.21.12*M.12+
A.21.13*M.13+A.21.14*M.14+A.21.15*M.15+A.21.16*M.16+
A.21.17*M.17+A.21.18*M.18+A.21.19*M.19+A.21.20*M.20+
A.21.21*M.21+A.21.22*M.22+A.21.23*M.23+A.21.24*M.24+
A.21.25*M.25+A.21.26*M.26+A.21.27*M.27+A.21.28*M.28+
A.21.29*M.29)*BETA+B.21+G.21
22:M.22 =(A.22.01*M.01+A.22.02*M.02+A.22.03*M.03+A.22.04*
M.04+A.22.05*M.05+A.22.06*M.06+A.22.07*M.07+A.22.08*M.08
+A.22.09*M.09+A.22.10*M.10+A.22.11*M.11+A.22.12*M.12+
A.22.13*M.13+A.22.14*M.14+A.22.15*M.15+A.22.16*M.16+
A.22.17*M.17+A.22.18*M.18+A.22.19*M.19+A.22.20*M.20+
A.22.21*M.21+A.22.22*M.22+A.22.23*M.23+A.22.24*M.24+
A.22.25*M.25+A.22.26*M.26+A.22.27*M.27+A.22.28*M.28+
A.22.29*M.29)*BETA+B.22+G.22
1-7
24:M.24 =(A.24.01*M.Ol+A.24.02*M.02+A.24.03*M.03+A.24.04*
M.04+A.24.05*M.05+A.24.06*M.06+A.24.07*M.07+A.24.08*M.08
+A.24.09*M.09+A.24.10*M.10+A.24.11*M.l1+A.24.12*M.12+
A.24.13*M.13+A.24.14*M.14+A.24.15*M.15+A.24.16*M.16+
A.24.17*M.17+A.24.18*M.18+A.24.19*M.19+A.24.20*M.20+
A.24.21*M.21+A.24.22*M.22+A.24.23*M.23+A.24.24*M.24+
A.24.25*M.25+A.24.26*M.26+A.24.27*M.27+A.24.28*M.28+
A.24.29*M.29)*BETA+B.24+G.24
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MAP Documentation
May 1983
25:
23:M.23 =(A.23.01*M.01+A.23.02*M.02+A.23.03*M.03+A.23.04*
M.04+A.23.05*M.05+A.23.06*M.06+A.23.07*M.07+A.23.08*M.08
+A.23.09*M.09+A.23.10*M.10+A.23.11*M.11+A.23.12*M.12+
A.23.13*M.13+A.23.14*M.14+A.23.15*M.15+A.23.16*M.16+
A.23.17*M.17+A.23.18*M.18+A.23.19*M.19+A.23.20*M.20+
A.23.21*M.21+A.23.22*M.22+A.23.23*M.23+A.23.24*M.24+
A.23.25*M.25+A.23.26*M.26+A.23.27*M.27+A.23.28*M.28+
A.23.29*M.29)*BETA+B.23+G.23
27:M.27 =(A.27.01*M.01+A.27.02*M.02+A.27.03*M.03+A.27.04*
M.04+A.27.05*M.05+A.27.06*M.06+A.27.07*M.07+A.27 .08*M.08
+A.27.09*M.09+A.27.10*M.IO+A.27.11*M.11+A.27.12*M.12+
A.27 .13*M.1.3+A.Z7.1.4*M.1.4+A.'i.l.15*M.15+A.2f.i6*M.16+
.A.27.17*M.17+A.27.18*M.18+A.27.19*M.19+A.27.20*M.20+
A.27.21*M.21+A.27.22*M.22+A.27.23*M.23+A.27.24*M.24+
A.27.25*M.25+A.27.26*M.26+A.27.27*M.27+A.27.28*M.28+
A.27.29*M.29)*BETA+B.27+G.27
26:M.26 =(A.26.01*M.01+A.26.02*M.02+A.26.03*M.03+A.26.04*
M.04+A.26.05*M.05+A.26.06*M.06+A.26.07*M.07+A.26.08*M.08
+A.26.09*M.09+A.26.10*M.10+A.26.11*M.l1+A.26.12*M.12+
A.26.13*M.13+A.26.14*M.14+A.26.15*M.15+A.26.16*M.16+
_._....._..'---··-....__.._·_-·---··..-K~·26-:-r7*K-;r7+A-:-26-~T8*M·~T8+A:-2-6-;:T9*M-:'r9+A;..2'6-~ZO*M-:ZOT---.-....---..
A-;-26-;-2i'*M-;-2i-TA-;-26-;-22*li-;-22"'f-'A-;26-;23*M-;-23:VA-;-26~24'*M-;-2-4+
A.26.25*M.25+A.26.26*M.26+A.26.27*M.27+A.26.28*M.28+
A.26.29*M.29)*BETA+B.26+G.26
M.25 =(A.25.01*M.01+A.25.02*M.02+A.25.03*M.03+A.25.04*
M.04+A.25.05*M.05+A.25.06*M.06+A.25.07*M.07+A.25.08*M.08
+A.25.09*M.09+A.25.10*M.10+A.25.11*M.l1+A.25.12*M.12+
A.25.13*M.13+A.25.14*M.14+A.25.15*M.15+A.25.16*M.16+
A.25.17*M.17+A.25.18*M.18+A.25.19*M.19+A.25.20*M.20+
____._'_"_.'_.._A.25.21~M.21±A..2.5...2.2~..2.2±A.25..Z3~M.23±A.25.24.t<M.24+
A.25.25*M.25+A.25.26*M.26+A.25.27*M.27+A.25.28*M.28+
A.25.29*M.29)*BETA+B.25+G.25
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
28:M.28 =(A.28.01*M.01+A.28.02*M.02+A.28.03*M.03+A.28.04*
M.04+A.28.05*M.05+A.28.06*M.06+A.28.07*M.07+A.28.08*M.08
+A.28.09*M.09+A.28.10*M.IO+A.28.11*M.11+A.28.12*M.12+
A.28.13*M.13+A.28.14*M.14+A.28.15*M.15+A.28.16*M.16+
A.28.17*M.17+A.28.18*M.18+A.28.19*M.19+A.28.20*M.20+
A.28.21*M.21+A.28.22*M.22+A.28.23*M.23+A.28.24*M.24+
A.28.25*M.25+A.28.26*M.26+A.28.27*M.27+A.28.28*M.28+
A.28.29*M.29)*BETA+B.28+G.28
29:M.29 =(A.29.01*M.01+A.29.02*M.02+A.29.03*M.03+A.29.04*
M.04+A.29.05*M.05+A.29.06*M.06+A.29.07*M.07+A.29.08*M.08
+A.29.09*M.09+A.29.10*M.IO+A.29.11*M.11+A.29.12*M.12+
A.29.13*M.13+A.29.14*M.14+A.29.15*M.15+A.29.16*M.16+
A.29.17*M.17+A.29.18*M.18+A.29.19*M.19+A.29.20*M.20+
A.29.21*M.21+A.29.22*M.22+A.29.23*M.23+A.29.24*M.24+
A.29.25*M.25+A.29.26*M.26+A.29.27*M.27+A.29.28*M.28+
A.29.29*M.29)*BETA+B.29+G.29
Support Employment (S.aa.bb)in region aa due to economic
acti vity in region bb
30:S.01.01 ==A.01.01*M.01*BETA
31:S.01.02 ==A.01.02*M.02*BETA
32:S.01.03 --A.01.03*M.03*BETA
33:S.01.04 ==A.01.04*M.04*BETA
34:S .01.05 ==A.01.05*M.05*BETA
35:S.01.06 ==A.01.06*M.06*BETA
36:S.01.07 --A.01.07*M.07*BETA
37:S.01.08 ==A.01.08*M.08*BETA
38:S .01.09 --A.01.09*M.09*BETA
39:S.01.10 --A.01.10*M.10*BETA
40:S.01.11 --A.01.11*M.11*BETA
41:S .01.12 --A.01.12*M.12*BETA
42:S.01.13 --A.01.13*M.13*BETA
1-9
43:S .01.14 ==A.01.14*M.14*BETA
44:S .01.15 --A.01.15*M.15*BETA
45:S.01.16 --A.01.16*M.16*BETA
46:S.01.17 ==A.01.17*M.17*BETA
47:S .01.18 ==A.01.18*M.18*BETA
48:S.01.19 ==A.01.19*M.19*BETA
49:S .01.20 --A.01.20*M.20*BETA
50:S .01.21 --A.01.21*M.21*BETA
51:S.01.22 --A.01.22*M.22*BETA
52:S .01.23 --A.01.23*M.23*BETA
53:S.01.24 --A.01.24*M.24*BETA
54:S.01.25 ==A.01.25*M.25*BETA
55:S .01.26 ==A.01.26*M.26*BETA
~'~'--'--"-~-'--~~'--~"""---~-'~-~'-"---~'------"-_.~..--_.--_...._----_.,.._._-_..~---_...~.._....._....._._---_._-_._-
56:S.01.27 --A.01.27*M.27*BETA
57:S .01.28 --A.01.28*M.28*BETA
58:S .01.29 --A.01.29*M.29*BETA
59:S.02.01 --A.02.01*M.01*BETA
60:
840:
841:
842:
843:
844:
S.02.02 ==A.02.02*M.02*BETA
S.28.28 --A.28.28*M.28*BETA
S.28.29 --A.28.29*M.29*BETA
S.29.01 --A.29.01*M.01*BETA
S.29.02 --A.29.02*M.02*BETA
S.29.03 --A.29.03*M.03*BETA
1-10
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
'\
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,I
\
I
\
''f.'.•j'C1
I
\
J
'I
I
l
J
J
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I
l
l
Institute of 80cial
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
845:8.29.04 --A.29.04*M.04*BETA
846:8.29.05 --A.29.05*M.05*BETA
847:8.29.06 --A.29.06*M.06*BETA
848:8.29.07 --A.29.07*M.07*BETA
849:8.29.08 --A.29.08*M.08*BETA
850:8.29.09 --A.29.09*M.09*BETA
851:8.29.10 --A.29.l0*M.10*BETA
852:8.29.11 ==A.29.11*M.ll*BETA
853:8.29.12 --A.29.12*M.12*BETA
854:8.29.13 --A.29.13*M.13*BETA
.855 :8.29.14 --A.29.14*M.14*BETA
856:8.29.15 --A.29.15*M.15*BETA
857:8.29.16 --A.29.16*M.16*BETA
858:8.29.17 --A.29.17*M.17*BETA
859:8.29.18 --A.29.18*M.18*BETA
860:8.29.19 --A.29.19*M.19*BETA
861:8.29.20 --A.29.20*M.20*BETA
862:8.29.21 --A.29.21*M.21*BETA
863:8.29.22 --A.29.22*M.22*BETA
864:8.29.23 ==A.29.23*M.23*BETA
865:8.29.24 ==A.29.24*M.24*BETA
866:8.29.25 --A.29.25*M.25*BETA
867:8.29.26 --A.29.26*M.26*BETA
868:8.29.27 --A.29.27*M.27*BETA
869:8.29.28 --A.29.28*M.28*BETA
870:8.29.29 --A.29.29*M.29*BETA
I-II
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Support Employment (S.aa)in region aa
871:8.01 ==S.01.01+8.01.02+S.01.03+S.01.04+8.01.05+S.01.06+
S.01.07+S.01.08+8.01.09+8.01.10+8.01.11+8.01.12+8.01.13+
8.01.14+S.01.15+8.01.16+8.01.17+8.01.18+8.01.19+8.01.20+
S.01.21+8.01.22+S.01.23+S.01.24+S.01.25+S.01.26+8.01.27+
8.01.28+8.01.29
872:8.02 ==S.02.01+S.02.02+S.02.03+S.02.04+S.02.05+8.02.06+
S.02.07+8.02.08+8.02.09+8.02.10+8.02.11+8.02.12+8.02.13+
8.02.14+8.02.15+8.02.16+S.02.17+8.02.18+8.02.19+S.02.20+
S.02.21+8.02.22+S.02.23+8.02.24+8.02.25+8.02.26+S.02.27+
8.02.28+S.02.29
873:
874:
~875:
876:
877:
878:
8.03 ==S.03.01+8.03.02+8.03.03+S.03.04+8.03.05+8.03.06+
8.03.07+8.03.08+S.03.09+8.03.10+S.03.11+8.03.12+8.03.13+
8.03.14+8.03.15+S.03.16+S.03.17+S.03.18+S.03.19+S.03.20+
8.03.21+8.03.22+8.03.23+8.03.24+8.03.25+8.03.26+8.03.27+
8.03.28+8.03.29
8.04 ==8.04.01+8.04.02+8.04.03+8.04.04+8.04.05+S.04.06+
8.04.07+8.04.08+S.04.09+8.04.10+8.04.11+8.04.12+8.04.13+
8.04.14+8.04.15+8.04.16+8.04.17+8.04.18+8.04.19+8.04.20+
8.04.21+8.04.22+8.04.23+8.04.24+8.04.25+S.04.26+S.04.27+
8.04.28+8.04.29
·~8.05·==8.05.01+8;~05-;02+8;05 •03+S.05.04+8.05.05+8.05.06+
8.05.07+8.05.08+8.05.09+S.05.10+8.05.11+8.05.12+8.05.13+
8.05.14+8.05.15+S.05.16+8.05.17+8.05.18+8.05.19+8.05.20+
S.05.21+8.05.22+8.05.23+8.05.24+8.05.25+8.05.26+8.05.27+
8.05.28+8.05.29
8.06 ==8.06.01+S.06.02+8.06.03+S.06.04+8.06.05+S.06.06+
8.06.07+8.06.08+S.06.09+8.06.10+8.06.11+8.06.12+8.06.13+
~.Q§.JA±S,Q§.:I,5±8,06.16+8.06 .11+8.06.18+8 ..06 ..19+S •.06 ..20+
8.06.21+8.06.22+S.06.23+8.06.24+8.06.25+8.06.26+8.06.27+--_.._----~._..~_..."-,..__....~~.~.~._..._-_._~~-_._.~._~._--~_.~------~-"._--'~----~.-'--~---"--'-----'--~--------'--'"
S.06.28+8.06.29
S.07 ==8.07.01+8.07.02+8.07.03+8.07.04+S.07.05+8.07.06+
S.07.07+8.07.08+8.07.09+8.07.10+S.07.11+8.07.12+8.07.13+
8.07.14+8.07.15+8.07.16+8.07.17+8.07.18+8.07.19+S.07~20+
8.07.21+8.07.22+S.07.23+8.07.24+S.07.25+S.07.26+8.07.27+
8.07.28+8.07.29
8.08 ==8.08.01+8.08.02+8.08.03+8.08.04+S.08.05+8.08.06+
8.08.07+8.08.08+8.08.09+8.08.10+8.08.11+8.08.12+8.08.13+
S.08.14+8.08.15+8.08.16+8.08.17+8.08.18+S.08.19+8.08.20+
8.08.21+8.08.22+S.08.23+S.08.24+8.08.25+8.08.26+8.08.27+
8.08.28+8.08.29
Institute of 8ocia1
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
879:8.09 ==8.09.01+8.09.02+8.09.03+8.09.04+8.09.05+8.09.06+
8.09.07+8.09.08+8.09.09+8.09.10+8.09.11+8.09.12+8.09.13+
8.09.14+8.09.15+8.09.16+8.09.17+8.09.18+8.09.19+8.09.20+
8.09.21+8.09.22+8.09.23+8.09.24+8.09.25+8.09.26+8.09.27+
8.09.28+8.09.29
880:8.10 ==8.10.01+8.10.02+8.10.03+8.10.04+8.10.05+8.10.06+
8.10.07+8.10.08+8.10.09+8.10.10+8.10.11+8.10.12+8.10.13+
8.10.14+8.10.15+8.10.16+8.10.17+8.10.18+8.10.19+8.10.20+
8.10.21+8.10.22+8.10.23+8.10.24+8.10.25+8.10.26+8.10.27+
8.10.28+8.10.29
881:8.11 ==8.11.01+8.11~02+8.11.03+8.11.04+8.11.05+8.11.06+
8.11.07+8.11.08+8.11.09+8.11.10+8.11.11+8.11.12+8.11.13+
8.11.14+8.11.15+8.11.16+8.11.17+8.11.18+8.11.19+8.11.20+
8.11.21+8.11.22+8.11.23+8.11.24+8.11.25+8.11.26+8.11.27+
8.11.28+8.11.29
882:8.12 ==8.12.01+8.12.02+8.12.D3+8.12.04+8.12.05+8.12.06+
8.12.07+8.12.08+8.12.09+8.12.10+8.12.11+8.12.12+8.12.13+
8.12.14+8.12.15+8.12.16+8.12.17+8.12.18+8.12.19+8.12.20+
8.12.21+8.12.22+8.12.23+8.12.24+8.12.25+8.12.26+8.12.27+
8.12.28+8.12.29
883:8.13 ==8.13.01+8.13.02+8.13.03+8.13.04+8.13.05+8.13.06+
8.13.07+8.13.08+8.13.09+8.13.10+8.13.11+8.13.12+8.13.13+
8.13.14+8.13.15+8.13.16+8.13.17+8.13.18+8.13.19+8.13.20+
8.13.21+8.13.22+8.13.23+8.13.24+8.13.25+8.13.26+8.13.27+
8.13.28+8.13.29
884:8.14 ==8.14.01+8.14.02+8.14.03+8.14.04+8.14.05+8.14.06+
8.14.07+8.14.08+8.14.09+8.14.10+8.14.11+8.14.12+8.14.13+
8.14.14+8.14.15+8.14.16+8.14.17+8.14.18+8.14.19+8.14.20+
8.14.21+8.14.22+8.14.23+8.14.24+8.14.25+8.14.26+8.14.27+
8.14.28+8.14.29
885:8.15 ==8.15.01+8.15.02+8.15.03+8.15.04+8.15.05+8.15.06+
8.15.07+8.15.08+8.15.09+8.15.10+8.15.11+8.15.12+8.15.13+
8.15.14+8.15.15+8.15.16+8.15.17+8.15.18+8.15.19+8.15.20+
8.15.21+8.15.22+8.15.23+8.15.24+8.15.25+8.15.26+8.15.27+
8.15.28+8.15.29
886:8.16 ==8.16.01+8.16.02+8.16.03+8.16.04+8.16.05+8.16.06+
8.16.07+8.16.08+8.16.09+8.16.10+8.16.11+8.16.12+8.16.13+
8.16.14+8.16.15+8.16.16+8.16.17+8.16.18+8.16.19+8.16.20+
8.16.21+8.16.22+8.16.23+8.16.24+8.16.25+8.16.26+8.16.27+
8.16.28+8.16.29
1-13
887:
Institute of 80cial
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
8.17 ==8.17.01+8.17.02+8.17.03+8.17.04+8.17.05+8.17.06+
8.17.07+8.17.08+8.17.09+8.1Z.10+8.17.11+8.17.12+8.17.13+
8.17.14+8.17.15+8.17.16+8.17.17+8.17.18+8.17.19+8.17.20+
8.17.21+8.17.22+8.17.23+8.17.24+8.17.25+8.17.26+8.17.27+
8.17.28+8.17.29
891:
888:8.18 ==8.18.01+8.18.02+8.18.03+8.18.04+8.18.05+8.18.06+
8.18.07+8.18.08+8.18.09+8.18.10+8.18.11+8.18.12+8.18.13+
8.18.14+8.18.15+8.18.16+8.18.17+8.18.18+8.18.19+8.18.20+
8.18.21+8.18.22+8.18.23+8.18.24+8.18.25+8.18.26+8.18.27+
8.18.28+8.18.29
889:8.19 ==8.19.01+8.19.02+8.19.03+8.19.04+8.19.05+8.19.06+
8.19.07+8.19.08+8.19.09+8.19.10+8.19.11+8.19.12+8.19.13+
8.19.14+8.19.15+8.19.16+8.19.17+8.19.18+8.19.19+8.19.20+
8.19.21+8.19.22+8.19.23+8.19.24+8.19.25+8.19.26+8.19.27+
8.19.28+8.19.29
890:8.20 ==8.20.01+8.20.02+8.20.03+8.20.04+8.20.05+8.20.06+
8.20.07+8.20.08+8.20.09+8.20.10+8.20.11+8.20.12+8.20.13+
8.20.14+8.20.15+8.20.16+8.20.17+8.20.18+8.20.19+8.20.20+
8.20.21+8.20.22+8.20.23+8.20.24+8.20.25+8.20.26+8.20.27+
8.20.28+8.20.29
8.21 ==8.21.01+8.21.02+8.21.03+8.21.04+8.21.05+8.21.06+
8.21.07+8.21.08+8.21.09+8.21.10+8.21.11+8.21.12+8.21.13+
--------------.._··_--S;2-l;14-r8;-21 ;15-r8;21;16+8;21 ;-17+8.21;-18'1'8-.21;19'1'8.21;20+
8.21.21+8.21.22+8.21.23+8.21.24+8.21.25+8.21.26+8.21.27+
8.21.28+8.21.29
892:8.22 ==8.22.01+8.22.02+8.22.03+8.22.04+8.22.05+8.22.06+
8.22.07+8.22.08+8.22.09+S.22.10+8.22.11+8.22.12+8.22.13+
8.22.14+8.22.15+8.22.16+8.22.17+8.22.18+8.22.19+8.22.20+
8.22.21+8.22.22+8.22.23+8.22.24+8.22.25+8.22.26+8.22.27+
.._----_._•.._-_.__._..__.___-_._..•_---_.".~-_._-------_.._------.--------------...-----..--_...-----.-....--893:--------------·"s:-23"'";;;---"S .23--:'··of+s-~-23-~--02+S-~-23--:'-03+S.23.04+8.23.05+S.23 .06+
8.23.07+8.23.08+8.23.09+8.23.10+8.23.11+8.23.12+8.23.13+
8.23.14+8.23.15+8.23.16+8.23.17+8.23.18+8.23.19+8.23.20+
8.23.21+8.23.22+8.23.23+8.23.24+8.23.25+8.23.26+8.23.27+
8.23.28+8.23.29
894:8.24 ==8.24.01+8.24.02+8.24.03+8.24.04+8.24.05+8.24.06+
8.24.07+8.24.08+8.24.09+8.24.10+8.24.11+8.24.12+S.24.13+
8.24.14+8.24.15+8.24.16+8.24.17+8.24.18+S.24.19+S.24.20+
8.24.21+8.24.22+8.24.23+8.24.24+8.24.25+8.24.26+8.24.27+
8.24.28+8.24.29
Institute of 30cia1
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
895:3.25 ==3.25.01+3.25.02+3.25.03+3.25.04+3.25.05+3.25.06+
3.25.07+3.25.08+3.25.09+3.25.10+3.25.11+3.25.12+3.25.13+
3.25.14+3.25.15+3.25.16+3.25.17+3.25.18+3.25.19+3.25.20+
3.25.21+3.25.22+3.25.23+3.25.24+3.25.25+3.25.26+3.25.27+
8.25.28+3.25.29
896:3.26 ==3.26.01+3.26.02+3.26.03+3.26.04+3.26.05+3.26.06+
3.26.07+3.26.08+3.26.09+3.26.10+3.26.11+3.26.12+3.26.13+
3.26.14+3.26.15+3.26.16+3.26.17+3.26.18+3.26.19+3.26.20+
3.26.21+3.26.22+3.26.23+3.26.24+3.26.25+3.26.26+3.26.27+
3.26.28+3.26.29
897:3.27 ==3.27.01+3.27.02+3.27.03+3.27.04+3.27.05+3.27.06+
3.27.07+3.27;08+3.27.09+3.27.10+3.27.11+3.27.12+3.27.13+
3.27.14+3.27.15+3.27.16+3.27.17+3.27.18+3.27.19+3.27.20+
3.27.21+3.27.22+3.27.23+3.27.24+3.27.25+3.27.26+3.27.27+
3.27.28+3.27.29
\
898:3.28 ==3.28.01+3.28.02+3.28.03+3.28.04+3.28.05+3.28.06+
3.28.07+3.28.08+3.28.09+3.28.10+3.28.11+3.28.12+3.28.13+
3.28.14+3.28.15+3.28.16+3.28.17+3.28.18+3.28.19+3.28.20+
3.28.21+3.28.22+3.28.23+3.28.24+3.28.25+3.28.26+3.28.27+
3.28.28+3.28.29
899:3.29 ==3.29.01+3.29.02+3.29.03+3.29.04+3.29.05+3.29.06+
3.29.07+3.29.08+3.29.09+3.29.10+3.29.11+3.29.12+3.29.13+
3.29.14+3.29.15+3.29.16+3.29.17+3.29.18+3.29.19+3.29.20+
3.29.21+3.29.22+3.29.23+3.29.24+3.29.25+3.29.26+3.29.27+
3.29.28+3.29.29
Aggregate Employment by Type
900:3.3T ==3.01+3.02+3.03+3.04+3.05+3.06+3.07+3.08+3.09+
3.10+3.11+3.12+3.13+3.14+3.15+3.16+3.17+3.18+3.19+3.20+
3.21+3.22+3.23+3.24+3.25+3.26+3.27+3.28+3.29
901:B.3T ==B.01+B.02+B.03+B.04+B.05+B.06+B.07+B.08+B.09+
B.10+B.11+B.12+B.13+B.14+B.15+B.16+B.17+B.18+B.19+B.20+
B.21+B.22+B.23+B.24+B.25+B.26+B.27+B.28+B.29
902:G.3T ==G.01+G.02+G.03+G.04+G.05+G.06+G.07+G.08+G.09+
G.10+G.11+G.12+G.13+G.14+G.15+G.16+G.17+G.18+G.19+G.20+
G.21+G.22+G.23+G.24+G.25+G.26+G.27+G.28+G.29
903:M.3T ==M.01+M.02+M.03+M.04+M.05+M.06+M.07+M.08+M.09+
M.10+M.11+M.12+M.13+M.14+M.15+M.16+M.17+M.18+M.19+M.20+
M.21+M.22+M.23+M.24+M.25+M.26+M.27+M.28+M.29
1-15
908:B.NR --B.ST-B.RB
907:M.RB --M.02+M.09+M.12+M.17+M.21+M.24+M.26
G.NR --G.ST-G.RB
S.NR --S.ST-S.RB
M.NR --M.ST-M.RB
B.AM --B.02+B.17
G.AM --G.02+G.17
S.AM --S.02+S.17
M.AM ==M.02+M.17
BAM --B02+B17
GST ==G01+G02+G03+G04+G05+G06+G07+G08+G09+G10+G11+G12+
G13+G14+G15+G16+G17+G18+G19+G20+G21+G22+G23+G24+G25+G26+
--G2c7+G28+G29 ..
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
910:
904:B.RB --B.02+B.09+B.12+B.17+B.21+B.24+B.26
905:G.RB --G.02+G.09+G.12+G.17+G.2l+G.24+G.26
906:S.RB --S.02+S.09+S.12+S.17+S.21+S.24+S.26
909:
911:
913:
914:
912:
915:
920:8RB --802+809+812+817+821+824+826
921:BNR --8ST-8RB
922:GRB --G02+G09+G12+G17+G21+G24+G26
923:GNR --GST-GR8
924:G.AG --G.AM+G.21+G.12
925:8.AG --B.AM+8.21+B.12
926:S.AG --S.AM+S.21+S.12
916:
918:BST ==B01+B02+B03+B04+B05+B06+B07+B08+B09+B10+B11+B12+
B13+B14+B15+B16+B17+B18+B19+B20+B21+B22+B23+B24+825+B26+
827+828+829
919:
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
927:M.AG ==M.AM+M.21+M.12
928:G.FG --G.09+G.24
929:B.FG --B.09+B.24
930:S.FG --S.09+S.24
931:M.FG ==M.09+M.24
932:GAG --GAM+G21+G12
933:BAG --BAM+B21+B12
i
i
J 934:GFG G09+G24--
935:BFG --B09+B24
Preliminary Population Estimate (PRE.aa)for region aa
936:PRE.29 ==PM.29*(M.01*IM.29.01+M.02*IM.29.02+M.03*
IM.29.03+M.04*IM.29.04+M.05*IM.29.05+M.06*IM.29.06+M.07*
IM.29.07+M.08*IM.29.08+M.09*IM.29.09+M.10*IM.29.10+M;11*
IM.29.11+M.12*IM.29.12+M.13*IM.29.13+M.14*IM.29.14+M.15*
IM.29.15+M.16*IM.29.16+M.17*IM.29.17+M.18*IM.29.18+M.19*
IM.29.19+M.20*IM.29.20+M.21*IM.29.21+M.22*IM.29.22+M.23*
IM.29.23+M.24*IM.29.24+M.25*IM.29.25+M.26*IM.29.26+M.27*
IM.29.27+M.28*IM.29.28+M.29*IM.29.29)
937:PRE.28 ==PM.28*(M.01*IM.28.01+M.02*IM.28.02+M.03*
IM.28.03+M.04*IM.28.04+M.05*IM.28.05+M.06*IM.28.06+M.07*
IM.28.07+M.08*IM.28.08+M.09*IM.28.09+M.10*IM.28.10+M.11*
IM.28.11+M.12*IM.28.12+M.13*IM.28.13+M.14*IM.28.14+M.15*
IM.28.15+M.16*IM.28.16+M.17*IM.28.17+M.18*IM.28.18+M.19*
IM.28.19+M.20*IM.28.20+M.21*IM.28.21+M.22*IM.28.22+M.23*
IM.28.23+M.24*IM.28.24+M.25*IM.28.25+M.26*IM.28.26+M.27*
IM.28.27+M.28*IM.28.28+M.29*IM.28.29)
938:PRE.27 ==PM.27*(M.01*IM.27.01+M.02*IM.27.02+M.03*
IM.27.03+M.04*IM.27.04+M.05*IM.27.05+M.06*IM.27.06+M.O7*
IM.27.07+M.08*IM.27.08+M.09*IM.27.09+M.10*IM.27.10+M.11*
IM.27.11+M.12*IM.27.12+M.13*IM.27.13+M.14*IM.27.14+M.15*
IM.27.15+M.16*IM.27.16+M.17*IM.27.17+M.18*IM.27.18+M.19*
IM.27.19+M.20*IM.27.20+M.21*IM.27.21+M.22*IM.27.22+M.23*
IM.27.23+M.24*IM.27.24+M.25*IM.27.25+M.26*IM.27.26+M.27*
IM.27.27+M.28*IM.27.28+M.29*IM.27.29)
1-17
Institute of Social .~
and Economic Research .
MAP Documentation
May 1983
939:
940:
PRE.26 ==PM.26*(M.01*IM.26.01+M.02*IM.26.02+M.03*
IM.26.03+M.04*IM.26.04+M.05*IM.26.05+M.06*IM.26.06+M.07*
IM.26.07+M.08*IM.26.08+M.09*IM.26.09+M.10*IM.26.10+M.11*
IM.26.11+M.12*IM.26.12+M.13*IM.26.13+M.14*IM.26.14+M.15*
IM.26.15+M.16*IM.26.16+M.17*IM.26.17+M.18*IM.26.18+M.19*
IM.26.19+M.20*IM.26.20+M.21*IM.26.21+M.22*IM.26.22+M.23*
IM.26.23+M.24*IM.26.24+M.25*IM.26.25+M.26*IM.26.26+M.27*
IM.26.27+M.28*IM.26.28+M.29*IM.26.29)
PRE.25 ==PM.25*(M.01*IM.25.01+M.02*IM.25.02+M.03*
IM.25.03+M.04*IM.25.04+M.05*IM.25.05+M.06*IM.25.06+M.07*
IM.25.07+M.08*IM.25.08+M.09*IM.25.09+M.10*IM.25.10+M.11*
IM.25.11+M.12*IM.25.12+M.13*IM.25.13+M.14*IM.25.14+M.15*
IM.25.15+M.16*IM.25.16+M.17*IM.25.17+M.18*IM.25.18+M.19*
IM.25.19+M.20*IM.25.20+M.21*IM.25.21+M.22*IM.25.22+M.23*
IM.25.23+M.24*IM.25.24+M.25*IM.25.25+M.26*IM.25.26+M.27*
IM.25.27+M.28*IM.25.28+M.29*IM.25.29)
j
1
1
i
942:PRE.23 ==PM.23*(M.01*IM.23.01+M.02*IM.23.02+M.03*
IM.23.03+M.04*IM.23.04+M.05*IM.23.05+M.06*IM.23.06+M.07*
IM.23·.07+M.08*IM.23.08+M.09*IM.23.09+M.10*IM.23 .10+M.ll*
IM.23.11+M.12*IM.23.12+M.13*IM.23.13+M.14*IM.23.14+M.l5*
IM.23.15+M.16*IM.23.16+M.17*IM.23.17+M.18*IM.23.18+M.19*
.....---....----...IM;-23;19+M:20*IM·;·Z3:20+M:-2r*IM:23:2I+M:22*IM :23.22+M.23*....
...._.--_..-....-···~··_·-·_------·---IM-;-23-;-2S'i'M-;-24·*-IM-;-23-;-24~1-i-;-25·*-I:M-;-23-;-25TM-;-2o*TM-;-23-;-26-=fM-;-2-7*
IM.23.27+M.28*IM.23.28+M.29*IM.23.29)
I)
PRE.24 ==PM.24*(M.Ol*IM.24.01+M.02*IM.24.02+M.03*
IM.24.03+M.04*IM.24.04+M.05*IM.24.05+M.06*IM.24.06+M.07*
IM.24.07+~.08*IM.24.08+M.09*IM.24.09+M.10*IM.24.10+M.11*
IM.24.11+M.12*IM.24.12+M.13*IM.24.13+M.14*IM.24.14+M.15*
IM.24.15+M.16*IM.24.16+M.17*IM.24.17+M.18*IM.24.18+M.19*
IM.24.19+M.20*IM.24.20+M.21*IM.24.21+M.22*IM.24.22+M.23*
IM.2~.•.23±M.24~IM.24.24+M.25~IM.2lL 25+M ..26*IM .24.26+M.27*
IM.24.27+M.28*IM.24.28+M.29*IM.24.29)
1-18
PRE.22 ==PM.22*(M.01*IM.22.01+M.02*IM.22.02+M.03*
IM.22.03+M.04*IM.22.04+M.05*IM.22.05+M.06*IM.22.06+M.07*
.IM.22 .07+M.08~IM.22.08+M.09*IM.22.09+M.10*IM.22 .10+M.ll*
IM.22.11+M.12*IM;22.12+M.13*IM.22.13+M.14*IM.22.14+M.15*
IM.22.15+M.16*IM.22.16+M.17*IM.22.17+M.18*IM.22.18+M.19*
IM.22.19+M.20*IM.22.20+M.21*IM.22.21+M.22*IM.22.22+M.23*
IM.22.23+M.24*IM.22.24+M.25*IM.22.25+M.26*IM.22.26+M.27*
IM.22.27+M.28*IM.22.28+M.29*IM.22.29)
943:
941:
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 19S3
944:PRE.21 ~~PM.21*(M.01*IM.21.01+M.02*IM.21.02+M.03*
IM.21.03+M.04*IM.21.04+M.05*IM.21.05+M.06*IM.21.06+M.O7*
IM.21.07+M.OS*IM.21.0S+M.09*IM.21.09+M.I0*IM.21.10+M.l1*
IM.21.11+M.12*IM.21.12+M.13*IM.21.13+M.14*IM.21.14+M.l5*
IM.21.15+M.16*IM.21.16+M.17*IM.21.17+M.lS*IM.21.1S+M.l9*
IM.21.19+M.20*IM.21.20+M.21*IM.21.21+M.22*IM.21.22+M.23*
IM.21.23+M.24*IM.21.24+M.25*IM.21.25+M.26*IM.21.26+M.27*
IM.21.27+M.2S*IM.21.2S+M.29*IM.21.29)
Ii
J
945:PRE.20 ~~PM.20*(M.Ol*IM.20.01+M.02*IM.20.02+M.03*
IM.20.03+M.04*IM.20.04+M.05*IM.20.05+M.06*IM.20.06+M.O7*
IM.20.07+M.08*IM.20.0S+M.09*IM.20.09+M.I0*IM.20.10+M.l1*
IM.20.11+M.12*IM.20.12+M.13*IM.20.13+M.14*IM.20.14+M.l5*
IM.20.15+M.16*IM.20.16+M.17*IM.20.17+M.lS*IM.20.1S+M.l9*
IM.20.19+M.20*IM.20.20+M.21*IM.20.21+M.22*IM.20.22+M.23*
IM.20.23+M.24*IM.20.24+M.25*IM.20.25+M.26*IM.20.~6+M.27*
IM.20.27+M.2S*IM.20.2S+M.29*IM.20.29)
946:PRE.19 ~~PM.19*(M.Ol*IM.19.01+M.02*IM.19.02+M.03*
IM.19.03+M.04*IM.19.04+M.05*IM.19.05+M.06*IM.19.06+M.O7*
IM.19.07+M.OS*IM.19.0S+M.09*IM.19.09+M.I0*IM.19.10+M.11*
IM.19.11+M.12*IM.19.12+M.13*IM.19.13+M.14*IM.19.14+M.15*
IM.19.15+M.16*IM.19.16+M.17*IM;19.17+M.lS*IM.19.1S+M.19*
IM.19.19+M.20*IM.19.20+M.21*IM.19.21+M.22*IM.19.22+M.23*
IM.19.23+M.24*IM.19.24+M.25*IM.19.25+M.26*IM.19.26+M.27*
IM.19.27+M.2S*IM.19.2S+M.29*IM.19.29)
947:PRE.lS ~~PM.lS*(M.Ol*IM.lS.Ol+M.02*IM.lS.02+M.03*
IM.lS.03+M.04*IM.1S.04+M.05*IM.lS.05+M.06*IM.lS.06+M.O7*
IM.lS.07+M.OS*IM.lS.0S+M.09*IM.lS.09+M.10*IM.lS.lO+M.11*
IM.lS.ll+M.12*IM.lS.12+M.13*IM.lS.13+M.14*IM.lS.14+M.l5*
IM.1S.15+M.16*IM.lS.16+M.17*IM.lS.17+M.lS*IM.lS.lS+M.l9*
IM:lS.19+M.20*IM.lS.20+M.21*IM.1S.21+M.22*IM.lS.22+M.23*
IM.lS.23+M.24*IM.lS.24+M.25*IM.lS.25+M.26*IM.1S.26+M.27*
IM.1S.27+M.2S*IM.lS.2S+M.29*IM.lS.29)
94S:PRE.17 ~~PM.17*(M.Ol*IM.17.01+M.02*IM.17.02+M.03*
IM.17.03+M.04*IM.17.04+M.05*IM.17.05+M.06*IM.17.06+M.O7*
IM.17.07+M.OS*IM.17.0S+M.09*IM.17.09+M.I0*IM.17.10+M.l1*
IM.17.11+M.12*IM.17.12+M.13*IM.17.13+M.14*IM.17.14+M.l5*
IM.17.15+M.16*IM.17.16+M.17*IM.17.17+M.1S*IM.17.1S+M.l9*
IM.17.19+M.20*IM.17.20+M.21*IM.17.21+M.22*IM.17.22+M.23*
IM.17.23+M.24*IM.17.24+M.25*IM.17.25+M.26*IM.17.26+M.27*
IM.17.27+M.2S*IM.17.2S+M.29*IM.17.29)
I-19
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
949:PRE.16 ;=PM.16*(M.01*IM.16.01+M.02*IM.16.02+M.03*
IM.16.03+M.04*IM.16.04+M.05*IM.16.05+M.06*IM.16.06+M.07*
IM.16.07+M.08*IM.16.08+M.09*IM.16.09+M.I0*IM.16.10+M.l1*
IM.16.I1+M.12*IM.16.12+M.13*IM.16.I3+M.14*IM.16.I4+M.I5*
IM.16.I5+M.16*IM.16.I6+M.17*IM.16.I7+M.18*IM.16.I8+M.I9*
IM.16 .19+M.20*IM.16.20+M.2I*IM.16.2I+M.22*IM.16.22+M.23*
IM.16.23+M.24*IM.16.24+M.25*IM.16.25+M.26*IM.16.26+M.27*
IM.16.27+M.28*IM.16.28+M.29*IM.16.29)
950:PRE.15 ==PM.15*(M.Ol*IM.15.01+M.02*IM.15.02+M.03*
IM.15.03+M.04*IM.15.04+M.05*IM.15 ..05+M.06*IM.15.06+M.07*
IM.15.07+M.08*IM.15.08+M.09*IM.15.09+M.I0*IM.15.10+M.I1*
IM.15.II+M.12*IM.15.I2+M.13*IM.15.I3+M.14*IM.15.I4+M.I5*
IM.15.I5+M.16*IM.15.I6+M.17*IM.15.I7+M.18*IM.15.I8+M.I9*
IM.15.19+M.20*IM.15.20+M.2I*IM.15.2I+M.22*IM.15.22+M.23*
IM.15.23+M.24*IM.15.24+M.25*IM.15.25+M.26*IM.15.26+M.27*
IM.15.27+M.28*IM.15.28+M.29*IM.15.29)
951:PRE.14 ==PM.14*(M.OI*IM.14.0I+M.02*IM.14.02+M.03*
IM.14.03+M.04*IM.14.04+M.05*IM.14.05+M.06*IM.14.06+M.07*
IM.14.07+M.08*IM.14.08+M.09*IM.14.09+M.I0*IM.14.I0+M.I1*
IM.14.I1+M.12*IM.14.12+M.13*IM.14.I3+M.14*IM.14.I4+M.I5*
IM.14.I5+M.16*IM.14.I6+M.17*IM.14.I7+M.18*IM.14.I8+M.I9*
IM.14.I9+M.20*IM.14.20+M.2I*IM.14.2I+M.22*IM.14.22+M.23*
IM.14.23+M.24*IM.14.24+M.25*IM.14.25+M.26*IM.14.26+M.27*
IM.14.27+M.28*IM.14.28+M.29*IM.14.29)
952:PRE.13 ==PM.13*(M.Ol*IM.13.01+M.02*IM.13.02+M.03*
IM.13.03+M.04*IM.13.04+M.05*IM.13.05+M.06*IM.13.06+M.07*
IM.13.07+M.08*IM.13.08+M.09*IM.13.09+M.I0*IM.13.I0+M.I1*
IM.13.11+M.12*IM.13.I2+M.13*IM.13.13+M.14*IM.13.I4+M.I5*
IM.13.15+M.16*IM.13.16+M.17*IM.13.17+M.18*IM.13.18+M.l9*.--.---"._-..,---~"-_..-----"---'-·-·IM-:'-~[3-"~--19+'M~--2-(r*-f"M'-~--'1~:r'~"20'+!r~-"2'I*"IM"-~~i-j'--~"2'~f+M'~-"-2'2'*i'M:...~'i'j'-.:'i"2+M'.-"2"j"*
.--.-.--..---------~----~.------~---.-~------nr.T3--:23+M:'24*TM:T3--:24+M-:-2·5*IM-:-I3-:-25+M-:-2-6-*IM-~r3.-Z6+M-:-2-7'*-
IM.13.27+M.28*IM.13.28+M.29*IM.13.29)
953:PRE.12 ==PM.12*(M.Ol*IM.12.01+M.02*1M.12.02+M.03*
1M.12.03+M.04*IM.12.04+M.05*IM.12.05+M.06*1M.12.06+M.07*
IM.12.07+M.08*1M.12.08+M.09*1M.12.09+M.I0*IM.12.I0+M.1l*
1M.12.11+M.12*1M.12.I2+M.13*1M.12.I3+M.14*1M.12.14+M.15*
IM.12.15+M.16*1M.12.16+M;17*1M.12.I7+M;18*IM.12.I8+M.I9*
1M.12.19+M.20*1M.12.20+M.21*IM.12.21+M.22*1M.12.22+M.23*
1M.12.23+M.24*IM.12.24+M.25*1M.12.25+M.26*IM.12.26+M.27*
1M.12.27+M.28*IM.12.28+M.29*1M.12.29)
1-20
)
)
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
954:PRE.ll ::PM.ll*(M.Ol*IM.ll.0l+M.02*IM.ll.02+M.03*
IM.ll.03+M.04*IM.11.04+M.05*IM.11.05+M.06*IM.l1.06+M.O7*
IM.ll.07+M.08*IM.ll.08+M.09*IM.ll.09+M.10*IM.ll.10+M.11*
IM.ll.ll+M.12*IM.ll.12+M.13*IM.ll.13+M.14*IM.ll.14+M.l5*
IM.ll.15+M.16*IM.ll.16+M.17*IM.ll.17+M.18*IM.ll.18+M.l9*
1M.ll.19+M.20*1M.ll.20+M.21*IM.ll.21+M.22*1M.ll.22+M.23*
IM.ll.23+M.24*IM.ll.24+M.25*1M.ll.25+M.26*1M.ll.26+M.27*
1M.ll.27+M.28*1M.l1.28+M.29*1M.ll.29)
955:PRE.I0 ::PM.I0*(M.Ol*1M.10.01+M.02*IM.10.02+M.03*
1M.I0.03+M.04*IM.I0.04+M.05*1M.I0.05+M.06*IM.I0.06+M.O7*
1M.I0.07+M.08*1M.10.08+M.09*IM.10.09+M.I0*1M.I0.I0+M.11*
1M.I0.l1+M.12*IM.10.12+M.13*IM.10.13+M.14*IM.10.14+M.15*
1M.I0.15+M.16*IM.I0.16+M.17*IM.10.17+M.18*IM.I0.18+M.19*
IM.I0.19+M.20*IM.I0.20+M.21*1M.10.21+M.22*IM.I0.22+M.23*
IM.I0.23+M.24*1M.10.24+M.25*1M.I0.25+M.26*1M.I0.26+M.27*
1M.I0.27+M.28*1M.lO.28+M.29*1M.10.29)
956:PRE.09 ::PM.09*(M.Ol*1M.09.01+M.02*IM.09.02+M.03*
1M.09.03+M.04*1M.09.04+M.05*1M.09.05+M.06*1M.09.06+M.O7*
1M.09.07+M.08*IM.09.08+M.09*1M.09.09+M.I0*1M.09.10+M.11*
1M.09.11+M.12*1M.09.12+M.13*IM.09.13+M.14*1M.09.14+M.l5*
IM.09.15+M.16*1M.09.16+M.17*1M.09.17+M.18*1M.09.18+M.19*
1M.09.19+M.20*1M.09.20+M.21*1M.09.21+M.22*1M.09.22+M.23*
IM.09.23+M.24*1M.09.24+M.25*1M.09.25+M.26*IM.09.26+M.27*
1M.09.27+M.28*1M.09.28+M.29*1M.09.29)
957:PRE.08 ::PM.08*(M.01*1M.08.01+M.02*1M.08.02+M.03*
1M.08.03+M.04*1M.08.04+M.05*1M.08.05+M.06*IM.08.06+M.O7*
1M.08.07+M.08*1M.08.08+M.09*IM.08.09+M.I0*IM.08.10+M.l1*
1M.08.11+M.12*1M.08.12+M.13*IM.08.13+M.14*IM.08.14+M.15*
1M.08.15+M.16*1M.08.16+M.17*1M.08.17+M.18*1M.08.18+M.19*
1M.08.19+M.20*1M.08.20+M.21*1M.08.21+M.22*IM.08.22+M.23*
1M.08.23+M.24*IM.08.24+M.25*IM.08.25+M.26*1M.08.26+M.27*
1M.08.27+M.28*1M.08.28+M.29*1M.08.29)
958:PRE.07 ::PM.07*(M.01*1M.07.01+M.02*1M.07.02+M.03*
1M.07.03+M.04*1M.07.04+M.05*IM.07.05+M.06*1M.07.06+M.O7*
IM.07.07+M.08*1M.07.08+M.09*IM.07.09+M.10*1M.07.10+M.11*
1M.07.11+M.12*1M.07.12+M.13*1M.07.13+M.14*1M.07.14+M.15*
1M.07.15+M.16*1M.07.16+M.17*1M.07.17+M.18*1M.07.18+M.19*
1M.07.19+M.20*IM.07.20+M.21*1M.07.21+M.22*1M.07.22+M.23*
IM.07.23+M.24*IM.07.24+M.25*1M.07.25+M.26*1M.07.26+M.27*
IM.07.27+M.28*1M.07.28+M.29*1M.07.29)
1-21
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
959:PRE.06 ==PM.06*(M.01*IM;06.01+M.02*IM.06.02+M.03*
IM.06.03+M.04*IM.06.04+M.Os*IM.06.0s+M.06*IM.06.06+M.07*
1M.06.07+M.08*IM.06.08+M.09*IM.06.09+M.10*1M.06.10+M.11*
1M.06.11+M.12*1M.06.12+M.13*1M.06.13+M.14*1M.06.14+M.15*
1M.06.1s+M.16*1M.06.16+M.17*1M.06.17+M.18*IM.06.18+M.19*
IM.06.19+M.20*1M.06.20+M.21*IM.06.21+M.22*IM.06.22+M.23*
IM.06.23+M.24*IM.06.24+M.2s*IM.06.2s+M.26*IM.06.26+M.27*
1M.06.27+M.28*IM.06.28+M.29*IM.06.29)
960:
961:
962:
963:
PRE.Os ==PM.Os*(M.01*IM.Os.01+M.02*IM.Os.02+M.03*
IM.Os.03+M.04*1M.Os.04+M.Os*IM.Os.Os+M.06*1M.Os.06+M.07*
IM.Os.07+M.08*IM.Os.08+M.09*1M.Os.09+M.10*1M.Os.10+M.1l*
IM.Os.11+M.12*IM.Os.12+M.13*IM.05.13+M.14*1M.Os.14+M.15*
1M.05.15+M.16*1M.Os.16+M.17*IM.05.17+M.18*IM.Os.18+M.19*
1M.Os.19+M.20*1M.Os.20+M.21*IM.Os.21+M.22*IM.Os.22+M.23*
IM.Os.23+M.24*1M.Os.24+M.2s*IM.Os.2s+M.26*1M.05.26+M.27*
IM.Os.27+M.28*IM.Os.28+M.29*IM.Os.29)
PRE.04 ==PM.04*(M.01*1M.04.01+M.02*IM.04.02+M.03*
1M.04.03+M.04*1M.04.04+M.Os*IM.04.0s+M.06*1M.04.06+M.07*
IM.04.07+M.08*1M.04.08+M.09*IM.04.09+M.10*IM.04.10+M.11*
1M.04.11+M.12*IM.04.12+M.13*IM.04.13+M.14*IM.04.14+M.15*
IM.04.1s+M.16*IM.04.16+M.17*IM.04.17+M.18*IM.04.18+M.19*
IM.04.19+M.20*IM.04.20+M.21*IM.04.21+M.22*IM.04.22+M.23*
~..~~IM ~~04-;23+M:-24*IM-.~04-.-24+M;-2S*1M ;Olf.-2s+M;Z6*:tM:04 .26-1-M .27 *
IM.04.27+M.28*1M.04.28+M.29*1M.04.29)
PRE.03 ==PM.03*(M.01*IM.03.01+M.02*IM.03.02+M.03*
IM.03.03+M.04*1M.03.04+M.Os*IM.03.0s+M.06*IM.03.06+M.07*
IM.03.07+M.08*IM.03.08+M.09*IM.03.09+M.10*IM.03.10+M.11*
IM.03.11+.M.12*1M.03.12+M.13*IM.03.13+M.14*IM.03.14+M.15*
....._IM.03.1s±M.16:rc.IM.03.16+.M.17ll:IM.03.17+M.18·>l:IM·.·03.·18+M.19*
1M.03 .19+M.20*1M.03 ,20+M.2l*IM.Jt3_.2_1±M.22~IMLO_3~.2.2±M ..23~..
IM.03.23+M.24*IM.03.24+M.2s*IM.03.25+M.26*IM.03.26+M.27*
IM.03.27+M.28*1M.03.28+M.29*IM.03.29)
PRE.02 ==PM.02*(M.01*1M.02.'01+M.02*IM.02.02+M.03*
IM.02.03+M.04*IM.02.04+M.Os*IM.02.0s+M.06*IM.02.06+M.07*
IM.02.07+M.08*IM.02.08-1-M.09*tM.02.09-1-M.IO*:tM.02.IO-l-M.1l.*
IM.02.11+M.12*IM.02.12+M.13*IM.02.13+M.14*IM.02.14+M.15*
1M.02.1s+M.i6*IM.6i.16+M.17*IM.02.17+M.18*IM.02.18+M.19*
IM.02.19+M.20*IM.02.20+M.21*1M.02.21+M.22*IM.02.22+M.23*
IM.02.23+M.24*IM.02.24+M.2s*IM.02.2s+M.26*IM.02.26+M.27*
1M.02.27+M.28*1M.02.28+M.29*IM.02.29)
J
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Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
964:PRE.01 ::PM.01*(M.01*IM.01.01+M.02*IM.01.02+M.03*
IM.01.03+M.04*IM.01.04+M.05*IM.01.05+M.06*IM.01.06+M.O7*
IM.01.07+M.08*IM.01.08+M.09*IM.01.09+M.10*IM.01.10+M.l1*
IM.01.11+M.12*IM.01.12+M.13*IM.Ol.13+M.14*IM.01.14+M.15*
IM.01.15+M.16*IM.01.16+M.17*IM.01.17+M.18*IM.01.18+M.19*
IM.01.19+M.20*IM.01.20+M.21*IM.01.21+M.22*1M.01.22+M.23*
1M.01.23+M.24*IM.01.24+M.25*IM.01.25+M.26*1M.01.26+M.27*
1M.01.27+M.28*IM.01.28+M.29*1M.01.29)
965:PRE.ST ::PRE.01+PRE.02+PRE.03+PRE.04+PRE.05+PRE.06+
PRE.07+PRE.08+PRE.09+PRE.10+PRE.11+PRE.12+PRE.13+PRE.14+
PRE.15+PRE.16+PRE.17+PRE.18+PRE.19+PRE.20+PRE.21+PRE.22+
PRE.23+PRE.24+PRE.25+PRE.26+PRE.27+PRE.28+PRE.29
966:ADJ --POP/PRE.ST
1-23
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
999:P.AM ==P.02+P.17
997:P.RB ==P.02+P.09+P.
I
J
I
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l
.J
I
P.15 --PRE.15*ADJ
.P.14 --PRE.14*ADJ
P.13 --PRE.13*ADJ
P.12 --PRE.12*ADJ
P.ll --PRE.ll*ADJ
P.10 --PRE.10*ADJ
P.09 --PRE.09*ADJ
P.08 --PRE.08*ADJ
P.07 --PRE.07*ADJ
P.06 --PRE.06*ADJ
P.05 --PRE.05*ADJ
P.04 --PRE·.04*ADJ
P.03 --PRE.03*ADJ
P.02 --PRlh02*ADJ
P.Ol --PRE.Ol*ADJ
983:
981:
982:
984:
985:
987:
988:
986:
989:
991:
990:
992:
995:
993:
996:P.ST --P.Ol+P.02+P.03+P.04+P.05+P.06+P.07+P.08+P.09+
P.10+P.ll+P.12+P.13+P.14+P.15+P.16+P.17+P.18+P.19+P.20+
P.2l+P.22+P.23+P.24+P.25+P.26+P.27+P.28+P.29
994:
1000:
1001:
P.AG --P.AM+P.2l+P.12
P.FG --P.09+P.24
)
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Institute of Social
,and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Population (PCEN.cc)in region cc (1980 Census Divisions)
1002:PCEN.Ol ==P.04
1003:PCEN.02 ==P.14
1004:PCEN.03 --P.18
1005 :PCEN.04 --P.29+P.16*PC.04.16+P.25*PC.04.25
1006:PCEN.05 ==P.09
1007:PCEN.06 =P.24+P.25*PC.06.25
1008:PCEN.07 --P.27
1009:PCEN.08 --P.05+P.16*PC.08.16
1010:PCEN.09 --P.07
1011:PCEN.10 --P.06
1012:PCEN.ll --P.01
1013:PCEN.12 --P.17
1014:PCEN.13 --P.02
1015:PCEN.14 ==P.12+P.21
1016:PCEN.15 ==P.15
1017:PCEN.16 --P.08+P.26
1018:PCEN.17 --P.23+P.03
1019:PCEN.18 --P.10
1020:PCEN.19 --P.11
1021:PCEN.20 --P.22
1022:PCEN.21 --P.28
1023:PCEN.22 --P.20+P.19
1024:PCEN.23 --P.13
1-25
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Preliminary Household Estimate (HPRE.cc)for region cc
1025:HPRE.01 ==(PCEN.01-PGQ.01)/HHSZ.01
1026:HPRE.02 ==(PCEN.02-PGQ.02)/HHSZ.02
1027:HPRE.03 ==(PCEN.03-PGQ~03)/HHSZ.03
1028:HPRE.04 ==(PCEN.04-PGQ.04)/HHSZ.04
1029:HPRE.05 ==(PCEN.05-PGQ.05)/HHSZ.05
1030:HPRE.06 ==(PCEN.06-PGQ.06)/HHSZ.06
1031:HPRE.07 ==(PCEN.07-PGQ.07)/HHSZ.07
1032:HPRE.08 ==(PCEN.08-PGQ.08)/HHSZ.08
1033:HPRE.09 ==0
1034:HPRE.10 ==(PCEN.10-PGQ.10)/HHSZ.10
1035:HPRE.ll --(PCEN.11-PGQ.11)/HHSZ.11
1036:HPRE.12 ==(PCEN.12-PGQ.12)/HHSZ.12
-1037:HPRE;13 ==--(PCEN.13c;;PGQ.13)IHHSZ;13
1038:HPRE.14 ==(PCEN.14-PGQ.14)/HHSZ.14
1039:HPRE.15 ==(PCEN.15-PGQ.15)/HHSZ.15
1040:HPRE.16 ==(PCEN.16-PGQ.16)/8HSZ.16
.............lQAl.:..J:l~RE.l1 =::::.0
1042:H~RE.18 ==0
1043:HPRE.19 ==(PCEN.19-PGQ.19)/HHSZ.19
1044:HPRE.20 ==0
1045:HPRE.21 ==0
1046:HPRE.22 --0
1047:HPRE.23 ==0
--IJ
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1049:
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
HPRE.ST ==HPRE.01+HPRE.02+HPRE.03+HPRE.04+HPRE.05+
HPRE.06+HPRE.07+HPRE.08+HPRE.09+HPRE.10+HPRE.11+HPRE.1 2+
HPRE.13+HPRE.14+HPRE.15+HPRE.16+HPRE.17+HPRE.18+HPRE.1 9+
HPRE.20+HPRE.21+HPRE.22+HPRE.23
ADJHH ==HH/HPRE.ST
Households (HHCEN.cc)for region cc (1980 Census Divisions)
1050:HHCEN.01 --HPRE.01*ADJHH
1051:HHCEN.02 --HPRE.02*ADJHH
1052:HHCEN.03 --HPRE.03*ADJHH
1053:HHCEN.04 ==HPRE.04*ADJHH
1054:HHCEN.05 ==HPRE.05*ADJHH
1055:HHCEN.06 ==HPRE.06*ADJHH
1056:HHCEN.07 --HPRE.07*ADJHH
1057:HHCEN.08 ==HPRE.08*ADJHH
1058:HHCEN.09 --HPRE.09*ADJHH
1059:HHCEN.10 --HPRE.10*ADJHH
1060:HHCEN.ll --HPRE.ll*ADJHH
1061:HHCEN.12 ==HPRE.12*ADJHH
1062:HHCEN.13 --HPRE.13*ADJHH
1063:HHCEN.14 --HPRE.14*ADJHH
1064:HHCEN.15 --HPRE.15*ADJHH
1065:HHCEN.16 --HPRE.16*ADJHH
i]
1066:HHCEN.17 --HPRE.17*ADJHH
1067:HHCEN.18 --HPRE.18*ADJHH
I.1068:HHCEN.19 HPRE.19*ADJHHc_J ==
1069:HHCEN.20 --HPRE.20*ADJHH
1-27
1074:B.IR --B.RB-B.26
1075:G.1R --G.RB-G.26
1076:S.1R --S.RB-S.26
1077:M.1R --M.RB-M.26
1078:P.1R --P.RB-P.26
Households (HH.aa)in region aa (1970 Census Divisions)
1079:HH.AM --HHCEN.12+HHCEN.13
1080:HH.AG --HH.AM+HHCEN.14
1081:HH.FG --HHCEN.05+HHCEN.06*(P.24/PCEN.06)
1082:HH.1R --HH.AG+HH.FG
1070:
1071:
1072:
1073:
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
HHCEN.21 --HPRE.21*ADJHH
HHCEN.22 --HPRE.22*ADJHH
HHCEN.23 --HPRE.23*ADJHH
HHCEN.ST --HHCEN.01+HHCEN.02+HHCEN.03+HHCEN.04+HHCEN.05
+HHCEN.06+HHCEN.07+HHCEN.08+HHCEN.09+HHCEN.10+»HCEN.11 +
HHCEN.12+HHCEN.13+HHCEN.14+HHCEN.15+HHCEN.16+HHCEN.17+
HHCEN.18+HHCEN.19+HHCEN.20+HHCEN.21+HHCEN.22+HHCEN.23
1-28
j
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Institute of Social
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MAP Documentation
May 1983
PARAMETERS:
A.01.01 0.16 A.01.02 O.A.01.03 O.
A.01.04 O.A.01.05 O.A.01.06 O.
A.01.07 O.A.01.08 O.A.01.09 O.
A.01.10 O.A.01.11 O.A.01.12 O.
A.01.13 O.A.01.14 O.A.01.15 O.
A.01.16 O.A.01.17 O.A.01.18 O.
A.01.19 O.A.01.20 O.A.01.21 O.
A.01.22 O.A.01.23 O.A.01.24 O.
A.01.25 O.A.01.26 O.A.01.27 O.
A.01.28 O.A.01.29 O.A.02.01 0.84
A.02.02 1.A.02.03 O.A.02.04 0.73
I A.02.05 O.A.02.06 0.44 A.02.07 O.I
I A.02.08 0.41 A.02.09 O.A.02.10 O.
A.02.11 0.19 A.02.12 0.08 A.02.13 O.
A.02.14 0.01 A.02.15 0.43 A.02.16 O.
A.02.17 O.A.02.18 O.A.02.19 O.
A.02.20 O.A.02.21 0.28 A.02.22 O.
A.02.23 O.A.02.24 0.7 A.02.2S O.
A.02.26 0.21 A.02.27 O.A.02.28 O.
A.02.29 0.2S A.03.01 O.A.03.02 O.
A.03.03 O.A.03.04 O.A.03.05 O.
A.03.06 O.A.03.07 O.A.03.08 O.
A.03.09 O.A.03.10 O.A.03.11 O.
A.03.12 O.A.03.13 O.A.03.14 O.
A.03.1S O.A.03.16 O.A.03.17 O.
A.03.18 O.A.03.19 O.A.03.20 O.
A.03.21 O.A.03.22 O.A.03.23 O.
A.03.24 O.A.03.2S O.A.03.26 O.
A.03.27 O.A.03.28 O.A.03.29 O.
A.04.01 O.A.04.02 O.A.04.03 O.
A.04.04 0.27 A.04.05 O.A.04.06 O.
A.04.07 O.A.04.08 O.A.04.09 O.
II A.04.10 O.A.04.11 O.A.04.12 O.
A.04.13 O.A.04.14 O.A.04.1S O.
A.04.16 O.A.04.17 O.A.04.18 O.
U A.04.19 O.A.04.20 O.A.04.21 O.
A.04.22 O.A.04.23 O.A.04.24 O.
A.04.2S O.A.04.26 O.A.04.27 O.
lJ A.04.28 O.A.04.2.9 O.A.05.01 O.
A.OS.02 O.A.OS.03 O.A.OS.04 O.
A.OS.OS 1.A.OS.06 O.A.05.07 O.
II A.OS.08 O.A.OS.09 O.A.05.10 O.
A.05.11 O.A.OS.12 O.A.OS.13 O.
L~__!A.05.14 O.A.OS.15 O.A.05.16 O.
I III!J
I I 1-29
tJ
A.09.12 O.A.09.13 O.A.09.14 O.
A.09.1S O.A.09.16 0.4S A.09.17 O.
A.09.18 O.A.09.19 O.A.09.20 O.
A.09.21 O.A.09.22 O.A.09.23 O.
A.09.24 O.A.09.2S 0.41 A.09.26 O.
A.09.27 O.A.09.28 O.A.09.29 0.24
A.10.01 O.A.10.02 O.A.10.03 O.
A.10.04 O.A.10.0S O.A.10.06 O.
,A.10.07 O.A.10.08 O.A.10.09 O.
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
A.OS.17 O.A.OS.18 O.A.OS.19 O.
A.OS.20 O.A.OS.21 O.A.OS.22 O.
A.OS.23 O.A.OS.24 O.A.OS.2S O.
A.OS.26 O.A.OS.27 0.49 A.OS.28 O.
A.OS.29 O.A.06.01 O.A.06.02 O.
A.06.03 O.A.06.04 O.A.06.0S O.
A.06.06 0.S6 A.06.07 O.A.06.08 O.
A.06.09 O.A.06.10 O.A.06.11 O.
A.06.12 O.A.06.13 O.A.06.14 O.
A.06.1S O.A.06.16 0;A.06.17 O.
A.06.18 O.A.06.19 O.A.06.20 O.
A.06.21 O.A.06.22 O.A.06.23 O.
A.06.24 O.A.06.2S O.A.06.26 O.
A.06.27 O.A.06.28 O.A.06.29 O.
A.07.01 O.A.07.02 O.A.07.03 O.
A.07.04 O.A.07.0S O.A.07.06 O.
A.07.07 O.A.07.08 O.A.07.09 O.
A.07.10 o.A.07.11 o.A.07.12 O.
A.07.13 O.A.07.14 o.A.07.1S o.
A.07.16 O.A.07.17 o.A.07.18 o.
A.07.19 o.A.07.20 O.A.07.21 o.
A.07.22 o.A.07.23 o.A.07.24 o.
A.07.2S o.A.07.26 o.A.07.27 o.
A.07.28 O.A.07.29 O.A.08.01 O.
A.08.02 o.A.08.03 o.A.08.04 O.
-A'.08-;0S-'0-.--._-A;08'.06 ,---0'.'K.08-;07
A.08.08 o.S9 A.08.09 O.A.08.10 O.
A.08.11 o.A.08.12 0;A.08.13 o.
A.08.14 o.A.08.1S
A.08.17 O.A.08.18
A.08.20 O.A.08.21
A.08.23 o.A.08.24
,A.O,8.26 ',,_0.,A.08.27
,,__'"A.08 .29,Q.._,_,A.09 .01 _
A.09.03 O.A.09.04
A.09.06 O.A.09.07
A.09.09 1.A.09.10
O.
O.
O.
O.
""",,0.
O.
O.
O.
O.
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A.08.16 O.)
A.08.19 O.
A.08.22 O.
-1:~::~~~:j
__~~ALO_9_cO_2 ~,_O_.__,__,_,,--,,--
A.09.0S O.
A.09.08 O.I
A.09.11 O.
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Institute of Social
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MAP Documentation
May 1983
A.10.l0 O.A.10.1l O.A.10.12 O.
A.10.13 O.A.10.14 O.A.10.1S O.
A.10.l6 O.A.10.l7 O.A.10.l8 O.
A.lO.l9 O.A.lO.20 O.A.lO.2l O.
A.10.22 O.A.lO.23 O.A.10.24 O.
A.10.2S O.A.lO.26 O.A.lO.27 O.
A.lO.28 O.A.lO.29 O.A.1l.0l O.
A.1l.02 O.A.1l.03 O.A.ll.04 O.
A.1l.05 O.A.ll.06 O.A.1l.07 O.
A.1l.08 O.A.1l.09 O.A.1l.l0 O.
A.1l.1l 0.81 A.1l.l2 O.A.1l.l3 O.
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1-31
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
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1-32
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
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I-33
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Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
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Institute of Social
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MAP Documentation
May 1983
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1-35
Institute of Social I
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
jMay1983
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1
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
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Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
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May 1983
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Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
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r I IM.29.02 O.IM.29.03 O.IM.29.04 0.005
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IM.29.29 0.611 PC.04.16 0.5079 PC.04.25 0.9475
PC.06.25 0.0525 PC.08.16 0.4921 PGQ.01 0.365
PGQ.02 0.048 PGQ.03 0.088 PGQ.04 0.614
PGQ.05 3.339 PGQ.06 0.399 PGQ.07 0.055
PGQ.08 J 0.118 PGQ.09 O.PGQ.10 0.339
PGQ.11 2.548 PGQ.12 0.324 PGQ.13 4.848
PGQ.14 0.32 PGQ.15 0.681 PGQ.16 0.702
PGQ.17 O.PGQ.18 O.PGQ.19 1.418
PGQ.20 O.PGQ.21 O.PGQ.22 O.
PGQ.23 O.PM.Ol 3.374 PM.02 2.066
PM.03 O.PM.04 7.1 PM.05 3.211
PM.06 2.977 PM.07 O.PM.08 2.629
PM.09 2.239 PM.10 O.PM.11 2.036
iJ PM.12 2.624 PM.13 O.PM.14 3.127
PM.15 1.782 PM.16 5.506 PM.17 3.093
PM.18 3.961 PM.19 O.PM.20 O.
PM.21 3.893 PM.22 O.PM.23 O.
PM.24 3.895 PM.25 3.534 PM.26 2.141
PM.27 4.388 PM.28 O.PM.29 3.076
1-41
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Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
APPENDIX J.
MAP ECONOMIC MODEL SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
Procedure
A large number of sensitivity tests were run using the MAP
economic model to gauge the sensitivity of the results to variations
in (1)the economic development scenario,(2)national economic
growth assumptions,(3)state fiscal variable assumptions,and
(4)model coefficient (regression-determined)and parameter
(nonstochastically-determined)values,as well as model specifi-
cation (form of equations).l
The procedure for running the tests involved four'steps.The
first was to compile a list of those input variables,parameters,
and model structural features,variations of which had previously
been shown to affect,were suspected to affect,or might be thought
to affect the level of MAP economic model output variables.This
resulted in a list of about 29 different cases--including variables
(data vectors)and parameters (or parameter sets)--for analysis.
The second step was to choose for each variable or parameter the
lowest and highest possible values which might be conceivable in the
year 2000.The idea was to bracket the most likely value,used in
the control simulation,with the effective end points of the
diitribution of the variable.Choosing these values was,of
necessity,a subjective exercise based upon a combination of
historical patterns,knowledge of the economy and its structure,and
statistics.For each case examined,the most likely lowest and
highest values used are shown in Table J.1.2
1These tests were based upon a version of the model,A83.1,
which was used to generate projections in February 1983.The model,
A.83.lSEN,input data files A.83.lSEN and A83SEN,and control
program,&A83RUNSE,are similar to those used to produce the
projections for this report:The model gives slightly different
results,but this does not materially affect the results of this
analys is which are applicable to interpreting the results of model
version A83.2.
2In general,a data vector was adjusted so that it trended
over time from its actual 1982 value to the year 2000 value,while
parameters and coefficients were set at their alternative value for
the entire range of simulation.The only exception was the
parameter LFPART,which was trended toward its 2000 value of .68.
217 .962
217.971
220.833
221.725
Highest
214.306
Lowest
212.523
215.824
210.106
212.372
215.824(a)
200.458 229.782
209.936 224.57S
209.724 224.567
.213.S57
215.119
21S.436
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Households in 2000 (000)
.486
2.968
2.000
9.192
1.000
2.000
16.000
21.719
Highest
19.107
33.000
2566
1.000
o
12.122
20.019
9.911
23.323
1566
Most Likely
Value in 2000 (000)
National Economic Variables
Exogenous Employment Variables
o
o
8.20S
17.800
Lowest
3.990
16.892
1066
TABLE J.1.MAP SENSITIVITY TESTS RESULTS
Variable
7
5
6
8
16
17
case
Control Case
1 Petroleum (EMP9)
2 Military (EMGM)
3 Tourists
4 Gas1ine Construction
(1994 Peak Completion)
Current Manufacturing
(EMHX2)
Enclave Construction
(EMCNXl)
Federal Civilian
(EMGC)
Fish Harvesting
(EMFISH)4.536 7.096
9 Construction (EMCNX2)0 0
10 Agriculture (EMAGRI).160 .508
------------'lc1---Pipe-1'ine-s-(EMT9X)---1-:l00----C9'6'8 '
12 High wage Manu-
facturing (EMMX1)
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217.579
217 .352~._
217.223 1
216.610
(
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14 Unef'll>1oyment (UUS).05 ..0.6 .ms 2.1-1-.-16-1--222--.1·78-----'-"
-------15 Price Level Growth
(GRUSCPI)
Price Level Growth
wlth Petroleum
Revenues Adjusted
Real Income Growth
(GRDIRPU)
(a)In 1981 households total 137.018.
,I
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Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE J.1.(continued)
State Fiscal Variables
case Variable Rate Households in 2000 (000)
Lowest Most Likely Highest Lowest Highest
18 Petroleum Revenues
(RPTS.RPRY.RTCSPX)101.501.90'J,195.969 224.855
J\
18a Post 1999 Petroleum Revenues
(Extrapolation Rate -
period of
calculation)1995-99 1997-99 241.491 (2010)243.218(2010)
19 Operations -
Capital Split
(5/6 Operations,
1/6 capital)219.958
Model Parameters
20 Average Household
Size (b)2.932 2.549 2.2 187.631 250.062
21 Labor Force
Participation Rate
LFPART .9338 .78 .68 177.84 238.145
22 Support Sector Elasticities
(to wealth)
C71E .00003 .00005 .00008 193.821 243.698
C84D .00005 .00009 .00015
23 Migration Sensitivity
CMIG2 3.32 14.12 24.92 195.413 240.146
CMIG3 21.8 49.22 76.62
CMIG4 .76 .96 1.15
24 Alaskan Price Level
I,J C67A -.1 -.3 -.5 215.781 227.165
I IiI (b)No simulation necessary to obtain the result.
J-3
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225.466
220.350
216.221
218.656
HighestLowest
206.592
212.608
213.738
213.976
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Households in 2000 (000)
.017 .0252
.047 .0702
1.00 .966
Rate
various 2
Model Parameters
Most Likely Highest
.5
1.042
Alaska Relative wage
Rate Growth
CxxB
Federal Tax Bite
C26B
TABLE J.l.(continued)
Lowest
case Variable
25 Support Sector Elasticities
(to Income)
C71B .0084
CB4B .0234
26
27
29 Construction Sector
Activity specification
C54i
28 Wealth Variable
C68i
C7li
CBOi
CB3i
----------C84i-----
1
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..--------.--.-_.---..--..-.-..-.-.-------------..---_..:-.-..------.---------.-..--.------.--.---..-..-.------....1
IJ
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
The sensitivity tests involving the gas pipeline,the mix of
government expenditures,the specification of wealth,and the
specification of exogenous construction employment involved only one
rather than a high and low alternative to the control case.
Third,each variable or parameter in turn was perturbed from the
control case level and the model simulated.Summary results for
each of these simulations are shown in Table J.l.Detailed results
are available upon request from ISER.
Finally,the cases were informally ranked in terms of the
sensitivity of the number of households statewide to the variable or
parameter perturbation to the highest possible value (in relation to
increasing the number of households).Households was chosen because
the electricity load is most sensitive to this output variable.
Results
\
The most important result of the sensitivity tests is the
demonstration that the simulation results are more sensitive to the
values chosen for several of the parameters than to variation in
employment and state 'fiscal assumptions.In particular,the number
of household is most sensitive to average household size and the
labor force participation rate.A substantial reduction'in either
the average household size or in the labor force participation rate,
other things equal,could raise the number of households in 2000
16 percent and 10 percent,respectively,above the control case.In
contrast,the highest likely level of petroleum employment would
increase households over the base case by 6.5 percent,while the
highest likely level of petroleum revenues would increase households
by 4.2 percent.
The implication of this conclusion is that a substantial portion
of the potential error of projection can arise not from the economic
scenario or fiscal policy assumptions,but rather in incorrect
parameter values within the structure of the model.This is a
source of potential error that cannot be altogether eliminated and
is understandably large for the Alaska economic model.The reasons
relate to three factors:(I)poor quality data,(2)substantial
structural change in the past,and (3)small size of the economy.
Consequently,past structural relationships are difficult to specify
as well as might be hoped,and future values defining those
relationships are subject to substantial variations which are not
possible to eliminate by additional analysis of existing data.
In short,reasonable arguments can be rai sed for a number of
different values for parameters such as household size and the labor
force participation rate in future years.None can be proven
correct or incorrect.
J-5
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
When interpreting the results of these sensitivity tests,the
assumption of other thing~constant (ceteris parabis)should be kept
in mind.In fact,it is unlikely that variation in one parameter or
variable would not be accompanied by change in other parameters
affecting output either in the same or opposite direction.For
example,if the average household size did actually fall to
2.2 persons in 2000,it is likely that the labor force participation
rate would rise from its current level.These two countervailing
movements would have oppos ing effects and would tend to moderate
change in the number of households.
Closely related to household size and labor force participation
rate in affecting population and,thus,households,is the
specification of the net migration equation.Simultaneously
increasing and decreasing all coefficients of this equation by two
standard errors shows the possible range of outcomes which this
equation can generate.This equation tends to be self-correcting,
since higher net migration rates increase unemployment,-which
increases outmigration.
Economic activity and,consequently,households,are sensitive
to the growth in support sector employment.Thi s was tested by
examining the coefficients on income and wealth as well as the
specification of wealth in the equations determining support sector
demand levels.Since wealth is highly correlated with income,the
sensitivity reported here is an overestimate;but it is clear that
----------'-t'h'i·s--rs-one~of-t·h-e~c-r-U-i-c-almoael areas.--
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A final sensitive area in
price level.If the Alaska
9 percent of the U.S.average
significant impetus to economic
terms of parameters is the Alaskan
price level were to move within
level by 2000 this would provide a
growth.
The simulations are relatively insensitive to variation in three
___.......are as 0 f mode 1._!:1p-e.dfJ.c.at.Lon ..---.-FJ.r.s.t.,..:.ther.e--is.-H.ttle--s ens-i-t-i-v-i-t-y-bo----··..--.----
the share of personal income sip-honed off as_f.e_d_e.r_al_taxes_._Second_,_
variation in the elasticity of real wage rate growth compared to the
U.S.average has only a modest effect.Third,an adjustment for a
possible misspecification of the construction demand equation has a
small effect.3
3Current practice in the model tre_~ts()Il~Y.1\-lY.~§I&~.pjpeline
cOnstrucTiOn emplOymeiiE as exogenous during the historical period.
This test arbi trarily assumes a constant positive historical level
of other exogenous construction employment and a new construction
demand equation is estimated.
J-6
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Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Turning to fiscal policy variables,if the level of petroleum
revenues is increased from the 50 to 90 percent Alaska Department of
Revenue c,ase,this has a larger impact than changing the mix of
activities.Since the Department of Revenue projections only cover
the years through 1999,the method used for extrapolation to the
year 2010 was tested.Households ~as insensitive to this.
The simulation is moderately sensitive to the values chosen for
two national variables which affect the Alaskan economy.These are
the growth in the average real weekly wage and the U.S.unemployment
rate.The growth in the price level,ceteris paribus,is a
sensitive variable,but it operates primarily by affecting the level
of real petroleum revenues.When real,rather than nominal,
petroleum revenues are held constant and the test is repeated,the
sensitivity of simulation to the national price level falls to
practically zero.
The number of households in 2000 is insensitive to variation in
most of the exogenous employment variables.Tests on most
employment variables produce less sensitivity than most of the
parameters,fiscal variables,and national growth rates.The most
sensitive employ~ent variables are petroleum,military,and
tourists;primarily due to their large size,but also their
potential range of variation.The sensitivity of several industries
is quite modest.
Although the analysis has been presented in terms of the
increase in the number of households to variations in parameters and
variables,it is instructive to examine the downside sensitivity
also.It is clear from an examination of Table J-1 that the
distribution of households in some tests is not sYmmetrical,but
rather is skewed towards higher values.This results basically from
more uncertainty about maximum values parameters and variables may
assume.
J-7
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APPENDIX K
MAN-IN-THE-ARCTIC PROGRAM (MAP)
TECHNICAL DOCUMENTATION REPORT
SCENARIO DOCUMENTATION
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE OF CONTENTS
K-1
K-ll lK-17
K-19 l
K-23
K-27 l
K-31 IK-35
K-37
--I
K-43
"-_._-_._-_._-~-~-~-~".
K-49
K-55
K-6l
K-65
Sa.Beaufort Sea OCS Employment Assumptions
(Sales 71,87,and 97).
5-f-.---Not"-t-h--A-leut-:i-an-Shel-f~OGS-Emp10yment------
Assumptions (Sale 92).
5e.Barrow Arch OCS Employment Assumptions
(OCS Sales 85 and 109).....
5d.Navarin Basin OCS Employment Assumptions
(OCS Sales 83 and 107).
---------------------------------------~----~-------
5c.st.George Basin OCS Employment Assumptions
(OCS Sales 70,89,and 101). . . . . .
5b.Norton Basin OCS Employment Assumptions
(OCS Sales 57 and 100).
5.Federal OCS Exploration and Development
2.North Slope Petroleum Development
1.Trans-Alaska Oil Pipeline .
3.Upper Cook Inlet Petroleum Production
4.Tertiary Recovery of North Slope Oil
K.2.Aggregate Base Case Variables ..
K.1.Summary of Base Case Assumptions
K.3.Scenario Case Files for Base Case
5g.Cook Inlet,Kodiak,and Shumagin OCS Employ-
ment Assumptions (Sales 88, 86,and 99)K-69
APA Hydro Projects
Anchorage Oil Headquarters
Tyee and Terror Lakes Hydro
-1
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K-77
K-75
K-85
K-8l
K-89
Federal OCS Development:State Prop~rty
Tax Revenue Assumptions
5h.
Beluga-Chuitna Coal Production7.
8.
6.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
U.S.Borax Mine near Ketchikan
Greens Creek Mine
Red Dog Mine
other Mining
Agriculture .
Forest and Lumber Products
Pulp Mill Employment
Commercial Fishing (Nonbottomfish)
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
K-93
K-97
K-101
K-l05
K-111
K-115
K-119
K-123
18.
19.
20.
21.
22.
Catcher-Processor-Dominated Bottomfishing
Federal Military
Federal Civilian
Tourism
Petroleum Revenues
K-129
K-133
K-139
K-145
K-147
II
I I
11
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MAP Documentation
May 1983
K.l.Summary of Base Case Assumptions
The base case assumptions currently in place for simulating with
the MAP Economic Modeling System are summarized in Table K.l.This
table describes the assumptions used in three areas--national
variables,exogenous employment variables (economic scenario),and
state fiscal variables:
The base case assumptions have been developed to represent,in
the aggregate,a median outcome for future economic and fiscal
conditions affecting the Alaskan economy.This is in contrast to
both the most likely outcome (mode)and the average outcome (mean).
The difference among the three measures can be discussed with
reference to Figure K.l which portrays the hypothetical distribution
of all the possible values that an exogenous employment variable may
assume in,for example,the year 2000.
The distribution is skewed to the right because very l~rge
positive values are possible with some small·probability greater
than zero,while values less than zero are impossible.The most
likely outcome (mode)has the highest probability of occurence,but
may have a value (in this case,one thousand)less than the majority
of the possible outcomes.The median is the value where 50 percent
of the outcomes have lower values,while 50 percent have higher
values.The mean (simple average)exceeds the median since it is
the average of the values of all possible outcomes.
Only one value from the distribution will be the actual outcome
in the year 2000,and the question is which measure of central
tendency best represents that unknown outcome in a base case
simulation.The median is used because of obvious deficiencies in
the other two measures.
Although the model is the most likely outcome,the majority of
outcomes could be higher,as in Figure K.l,or lower.Use of the
mode could then be unrepresentative of the universe of possible
outcomes.For example,the three possible uses of North Slope gas
and their respective probabilities could be (1)pipeline to
lower--48-40 percent,(2)conversion to methanol--30 percent,(3)
reinjection--30 percent.Although the pipeline alternative alone
has the highest probability because it is unrepresentative of .the
other outcomes which together are more likely,choice of the mode
,would produce a biased result.
Likewise,the choice of the mean value can result in bias if the
distribution of possible outcomes is skewed as in Figure K.l.For
example,there is a small probability of very large petroleum
revenues in the year 2000.Most outcomes have smaller associ ated
revenues.Since only a single outcome is possible,the low
probability high outcomes should be discounted in the calculation of
the base case because they are so unlikely.
FIGURE K 1
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Distribution
of
Possible Values for Exogenous Employment
Probability
,)
Employment
(in thousands)
I
(1
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11II
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Institute of Social
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MAP Documentation
May 1983
With that general framework in mind)the base case assumptions
have been chosen on the basis of concensus among the economists at
ISER.The process builds upon a documented eight-year experience of
scenario construction for the MAP models which has)from time to
time,utilized a large number of sources)indiv:l.dua1s within and
without ISER,and techniques including probability encoding and
interagency committee.The base case scenario is constructed so
that in the aggregate,rather than in any of its individual
elements,it represents the median outcome.
Each national variable assumption is represented by a time
series of values.These time series are set to represent the best
judgement of ISER economists on the future trends in these values as
they influence the Alaskan economy.That influence is primarily
upon the growth in the real wage,the price level,and the
equilibrium rate of unemployment.
"The exogenous employment assumptions consist of a series of case
file assumptions about economic behavior in particular industries or
particular projects.Detail on all of the case files included in
individual case files are chosen from the library of case files in
the scenario generator mode and are combined by that model to form
industry-wide basic employment assumptions.These aggregated
employment series (as well as tourists visiting Alaska)are
presented in Table K.2.The particular shape of the time paths of
the employment variables takes account of the fact that activity in
some industries such a's fish harvesting is resource base
constrained,while in others the level is more strongly influenced
by demand such as mining employment.
State revenue and expenditure assumptions consist of exogenous
vec tors of petroleum revenues,which are chosen from the scenario
generator library of cases)and a set of options chosen by the model
user which together are loosely called the fiscal rule.
Values for the most important petroleum revenues--roya1ties and
severance taxes--are taken from the Alaska Department of Revenue.
Since these projections end in 1999,they are extrapolated to 2010
using the growth rate over the interval 1996 to 1999.This interval
is felt to be representative of the subsequent decline in production
on state fields,particularly prudhoe Bay.Consequently,the time
series of total petroleum revenues in real dollars in the base case
has the shape shown in Figure K.2.
The other petroleum revenue source of consequence,the corporate
income tax,is extremely difficult to project because it is
dependent not only on the levels of production and prices of Alaskan
petroleum but upon all aspects of worldwide operations of the major
international oil companies operating in Alaska.The base case
assumptions for this revenue source is that it grows at 7 percent
annually,slightly faster than inflation.The petroleum property
tax depends upon taxable property of the oil companies.
K-3
3
2
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Institute of Social
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MAP Documentation
May 1983
FIGURE K.2.BASE CASE SIMULATION
TOTAL PETROLEUM REVENUES
(billion 1982 $)
1983 1990
K-4
Year
2000 2010
LJ
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
A "fiscal rule"is necessary for the determination of the level
and composition of state expenditures for two reasons.First,the
historical pattern of state expenditure behavior provides no state
guide to future spending patterns.Second,the potential for
revenue surpluses on current account allows for considerable
flexibility in the timing and composition of spending.In 1982
Alaskan voters approved a spending limit which limits spending to
$2.5 billion adjusted annually for the change in population and the
price level.
The limit covers all state spending except Permanent Fund
dividends and debt service.Special capiial approriations over the
limi t and,special contributions to the Permanent Fund can be done
with Noter approval.The limit also requires that at least
one-third of spending be for capi tal appropriations.Excess
revenues accrue in the General Fund until needed,earning positive
real interest.
The limit provides a useful set of guidelines for the fiscal
rule when current revenues plus General Fund balances are sufficient
to allow spending to be at the limit established by the limit.The
outstanding obligations to the Permanent Fund is not paid off.When
a simulation indicates that current revenues and the fund balance do
not provide 'revenues sufficient to spend up to the limi t,then an
alternate set of guidelines defining spending must be invoked.
Since there is no historical experience to base these guidelines
upon,they are defined by what appears reasonable politically in an
era of declining revenues.The basic assumption is "last in-first
out"referring to the fact that newer programs,initiated in years
when revenues are increasing rapidly,are most likely to be cut back
the most when revenues are falling.All programs would experience
cuts to some degree at the same time that some newer programs are
eliminated.
The sequence of events which is triggered by a shortfall of
revenues below the spending limit is as follows:Total expenditures
for programs funded under the limit are reduced.Permanent Fund
dividends and debt service payments are not directly affected.
Capi tal expenditures are reduced more than operating expenditures
over a two-year period until operations represents 75 percent of
spending.The reduction of operations results in a reduction in
local transfers.As the retrenchment continues,the subsidy half of
the capital budget is eliminated and replaced by "bricks and mortar"
spending.Capital spending financed by bonds and federal grants
continues to be a fixed portion of capital spending under the limit.
In addition to subsidies,the Permanent Fund dividend program is
eliminated.
K-5
j
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and Economic Research ·1,
MAP Documentation .
May 1983
Two revenue enhancement measures are subsequently introduced.',1 1ThefirstisthereintroductionofthepersonalincometaxattheI
rates prevailing when it was eliminated in the 1970s.The second is
the annual transfer of all Permanent Fund earnings,both real and \
nominal,to the General Fund.This produces current income but,
erodes the real value of the Permanent Fund.
t
1
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Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.1.SUMMARY OF BASE CASE ASSUMPTIONS FOR MAP MODEL
RAILBELT ECONOMIC STUDY,MAY 1983
(SB87.3 -CB87.3)
ASSUMPTIONS DESCRIPTION (a)
National Variables Assumptions
U.S.Inflation Rate
Real Average Weekly Earnings
Consumer prices rise at approximately
6.5 percent annually after 1985.
Growth in real average weekly
earnings averages 1 percent annually.
Real Per Capita Income Growth in real per
averages 1.5 percent
1984.
capita
annually
income
after
Unemployment Rate
Exogenous Employment Assumptions
Trans-Alaska Oil Pipeline
North Slope Petroleum Development
Upper Cook Inlet Petroleum
Production
Long-rwn rate of 6 percent.
Operating employment remains constant
at 1,500 through 2010 (TAP.083).
Construction employment developing
Prudhoe Bay and Kuparuk fields peaks
at 2,400 in 1983 and 1986.Operating
employment remains at 2,502 through
2010 for overall North Slope produc-
tion (NSO.082).
Employment declines gradually
beginning in 1983 so as to reach
50 percent of the 1982'level (778)by
2010 (UPC.082).
(a)Codes in parentheses indicate ISER names for MAP Model SCEN_
case files.These are presented in detail starting in Table K.3 of this
appendix.
K-7
Institute of Social
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MAP Documentation
,May 1983
]
),
Tertiary Recovery of
North Slope Oil
Tertiary oil recovery project
izing North Slope natural gas
in early 1990s with a peak
employment of 2,000 (NSO.TRC).
util-
occurs
annual
Hydroelectric Projects Employment peaks at 725
..---------.-constructlon of several
----------------------------Irya.l·creleetdc projects
state (SHP.082,SHP.PJH).
in 1990 for
-"-_.""----~.state-funded
arouna-·-£h-e---
The current OCS five-year leasing
schedule calls for 16 OCS lease sales
subsequent to October 1982,including
the Beaufort,Norton,and st.George
Sales,which have already taken place
(Sales 71,57,and 70).Development is
assumed to occur only in the Navarin
Basin (1.14 billion barrels of oil)
and the Beaufort Sea (6.1 billion
barrels of oil).All other sales are
assumed to result in exploration
employmen t only (OCS .GOl,OCS.G03 ,
OCS.G04,OCS.GOS,OCS.G06,OCS.G07,
OCS.G09,OCS.G10,OCS.G11,OCS.G12,
OCS.G13,OCS.G14).
ton/year
n 1990
of 524
establish
Alaska in
Several oil companies
regional headquarters in
mid-1980s (OHQ.083).
Development of 4.4 million
mine ror export"beginn ng
provides total employment
(BCL.04T(-4)}.
Anchorage oil Headquarters
Beluga Chuitna.Coal Production
OCS Exploration and Development
U.S.Borax Mine The U.S.Borax mine near Ketchikan is
brought into production with operating
employment ·of 790 by 1988 (BXM.PJM).
Greens Creek Mine Production from the Greens Creek
on Admiralty Island results
employment of 315 people from
.through 1996 (GCM.082).
K-8
Mine
in
1986
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Institute of social
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MAP Documentation
May 1983
Brooks
with
1988
The Red Dog Mine in the Western
Range reaches full production
operating employment of 448 by
(RED.PJH).
Red Dog Mine
other Mining Activity Employment increases from a 1982 level
of 5,267 at 1 percent annually
(OMN .083).
Agriculture Moderate state support results in
expansion of agriculture to employment
of 508 in 2000 (AGR.PJM).
Forest and Lumber Products Employment expands to over 3,200 by
1990 before beginning to decline
gradually after 2000 to about 2,800 by
2010 (FLL.083).
Pulp Mills Employment
1 percent
(FPU.082).
declines at
per year
a rate of
after 1983
Commercial Fishing-Nonbottomfish Employment levels in fishing and fish
processing remain constant at 6,323
and 7,123,respectively (TCF.002).
Commercial Fishing-Bottomfish The total U.s.bottomfish catch
expands at a constant rate to
allowable catch in 2000,wi th Alaska
resident harvesting employment rising
to 733.Onshore processing capacity
expands in the Aleutians and Kodiak
census divisions to provide total
resident employment of 971 by 2000
(BCF .183).
Federal Military Employment Employment remains constant at 23,323
(GFM.082).
Federal Civilian Employment Ri ses at 0.5 percent annual rate from
17,900 in 1982 to 20,583 by 2010
(GFC.083).
K-9
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MAP Documentation
May 1983
state Revenue and Expenditure Assumptions
total spending.After the Permanent
Fund dividend program is phased out,
all Permanent Fund earnings are
annually tran~ferred to the general
fund.
)
\
Number of visitors to Alaska increases
by 50,000 per year from 680,000 in
1982 to over 2 million by 2010
(TRS.082).
State petroleum revenues from the
severance tax and royalties are based
upon Alaska Department of Revenue
projections published in March of
1983.Subsequent to 1999,they are
extrapolated at the growth rate over
the interval 1996-1999.Oil and gas
corporate income tax revenues are
projected to grow at a nominal rate of
7 percent per year after 1985.Petro-
leum property taxes are a function of
petroleum industry capital st6tk
(DOR.5M83).
Tourism Assumptions
Petroleum Revenues
Expenditures state expenditures are at the levels
allowed by the recently passed
spending limit,with combined
~~-~---~------~---~------subs-idi-es---and-c.ap-i-ta-l-e*pend-i-tures---
equaling one-third of total
expenditures.As revenue growth
slows,the income tax is reinstated,
subsidies are eliminated,the
Permanent Fund dividend program is
phased out,and proportional cuts in
the operating and capi tal budgets are
made to keep total expendi tures equal--~--~----------~---~~------~~~~~~~-~---£()----total~-revenues .~-Capftal-----
)
K-10
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May 1983
K.2 Aggregate Base Case Variables
Table K.2 presents the values in the base case for the sixteen
variables which form the output of the scenario generator model for
the state economic model.These variables are aggregated from the
individual case files presented in section K.3.
K-ll
TABLE K.2.APA BASE CASE
EXOGENOUS EMPLOYMENT ASSUMPTIONS FOR MAP STATEWIDE MODEL
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
(thousands of employees)
2.157
2.471
2.804
2.440
2.752
1.500
1.552
1.631
1.949
Exogenous
Transportation
Employment
2.063
2.753
2.348
----3-;-1-4-7----
3.055
Low Wage
Exogenous
Construction
Employment
High Wage
Exogenous
Construction
Employment
Mining
Employment
Agricultural
Employment
1982 0.194 8.411 2.269 0.125
1983 0.203 9.387 3.261 0.290
1984 0.211 9.983 2.203 0.726
1985 0.219 11.279 2.627 0.863
1986 0.228 12.400 2.911 0.850
1987 0.239 13.149 3.069 0.613
1988 0.250 14.062 3.128 0.401
1989 0.263 14.526 3.244 0.875
1990 0.276 14.797 4.276 1.025
1991 0.291 15.671 1.667 1.125
1992 0.306 16.557 6.301 1.075
1993 0.325 16.068 5.164 0.563
...J.9_911 0_._343 16_._969 2_._1-4-1__----0.-100
1995 0.365 17.329 1.529 0.000
SOURCE:SCENARIOSB87.3--CREATED 4/83
3.423
3.351
3.351
3.279
3.279
0.000
0.000
0.000
0;000
0.000
1.070
1.063
1.063
1.056
1.056
K-12
16.253
16.309
16.340
16.223
16.282
0.389 17.501 1.303 0.000
0.414 17.390 1.303 0.000
0.442 16.994 1.070 0.000
0.474 -16.620 1.070 0.000
0.508 16.226 1.070 0.000
0.634
0.660
0.686
--0.712
0.740
3.291
3.351 _J
3.423
3.423
---~527----T~r:9-57 -----------r.-o-To--------O-.O-OO--~:-:-:-:-------]
---0-:S4-6---J:5-:888 ~OTOc-----0-:0-0-0 3.423
0.568 16.089 1.070 0.000 3.423 1
0.589 16.143 1~070 0.000 3.423
0.611 16.197 1.070 0.000 3.423
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1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2006
2007
_2008
2009
2010
-------------------200r-
----2002
2003
2004
2005
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.2.APA BASE CASE (continued)
EXOGENOUS EMPLOYMENT ASSUMPTIONS FOR MAP STATEWIDE MODEL
(thousands of employees)
High Wage Low Wage Active'
Exogenous Exogenous Fish Duty Civilian
Manufacturing Manufacturing Harvesting Military Federal
Employment Employment Employment Employment Employment
1982 0.000 8.771 5.217 23.323 17.900
1983 0.000 10.433 6.421 23.323 17.989
1984 0.000 10.571 6.444 23.323 18.079
1985 0.000 10.749 6.471 23.323 18.170
1986 0.000 10.929 6.499 23.323 18.261
1987 0.000 11.107 6.527 23.323 18.352
1988 0.000 11.196 6.544 23.323 18.444
1989 0.000 11.240 6.579 23.323 18.536
1990 0.000 11.292 6.592 23.323 18.629
1991 0.000 11.299 6.608 23.323 18.722
1992 0.000 11.315 6.629 23.323 18.815
1993 0.000 11.335 .6.655 23.323 18.909
1994 0.000 11.366 6.689 23.323 19.004
1995 0.000 11.413 6.731 23.323 19.099
1996 0.000 11.478 6.784 23.323 19.194
1997 0.000 11.571 6.851 23.323 19.290
1998 0.000 11.704 6.935 23.323 19.387
1999 0.000 11.887 7.041 23.323 19.484
2000 0.000 12.122 7.096 23.323 19.581
2001 0.000 12.018 7.096 23.323 19.679
2002 0.000 11.807 7.096 23.323 19.777
2003 0.000 11.776 7.096 23.323 19.876
2004 0.000 11.747 7.096 23.323 19.976
2005 .0.000 11.718 7.096 23.323 20.076
2006 0.000 11.641 7.096 23.323 20.176
2007 0.000 11.634 7.096 23.323 20.277
2008 0.000 11.62.6 7.096 23.323 20.378
2009 0.000 11.623 7.096 23.323 20.480
2010 0.000 11.617 7.096 23.323 20.583
SOURCE:SCENARIOSB87.3--CREATED 4/83
K-13
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.2.APA BASE CASE (continued)
EXOGENOUS REVENUE ASSUMPTIONS FOR MAP STATEWIDE MODEL
(millions of current dollars)
State
State State State Corporate
Production State Bonus Property Pet.roleum
Tax Royalty Payment Tax Tax
Revenue Income Revenue Revenue Revenue
1982 1590.000 1530.000 6.700 142.700 668.900
1983 1480.000 1430.000 26.100 148.600 235.000
1984 1220.000 1200.000 11.066 153.200 272 .000
1985 1260.000 1240.000 4.692 158.000 295.000
1986 1350.000 1350.000 1.990 163.456 315.650
1987 1430.000 1450.000 0.844 169.101 337.745
1988 1500.000 1520.000 0.358 174.940 361.387
1989 1380.000 1650.000 0.152 180.981 386.684
1990 1420.000 1710.000 0.064 187.231 413.751
1991 1230.000 1570.000 0.027 244.697 442.714
1992 1150.000 1550.000 0.012 253.385 473.704
19_<L3__.._Ul(L_0_0_0_.__.~152jL.0.0.0_.....__0...0.0.5 33.4.•.305_._._506-.-863~....._
1994 1090.000 1500.000 0.002 360.464 542.343
1995 1000.000 1410.000 0.001 372.870 580.306
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
910.000
930.000
910.000
860.000
843.918
1290.000
1330.000
1340.000
1350.000
1370.384
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
386.531
399.458
412.658
425.141
438.917
620.927
664.392
710.899
760.662
813.907
-------~2001---8-28--;-1-36--··-l-391-;·076---·····--0_;_OOO,--
2002 812.650 1412.081 0.000
2003 797.453 1433.402 0.000
2004 782.541 1455.046 0.000
2005 767.907 1477.016 0.000
2006
2007
·2008
2009
2010
753.547
7;39.456
725.628
712.058
698.743
1499.318
1521.957
1544.938
1568.266
1591.946
0.000
0.000
·0.000
0.000
0.000
519.317
530.447
542;962.
554.874
564.198
1221.453
1306.954
1398.440
1496.331
1601.073
SOURCE:SCENARIOSB87.3--CREATED 4/83
K-14
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.2.APA BASE CASE (continued)
EXOGENOUS TOURISM ASSUMPTIONS FOR MAP STATEWIDE MODEL
(thousands of tourists)
Tourists
Visiting Alaska
1982 680.000
1983 730.000
1984 780.000
1985 830.000
1986 880.000
1987 930.000
1988 980.000
1989 1030.000
1990 1080.000
1991 1130.000
1992 1180.000
1993 1230.000
1994 1280.000
1995 1330.000
1996 1380.000
1997 1430.000
1998 1480.000
1999 1530.000 '/
2000 1580.000
2001 1630.000
2002 1680.000
2003 1730.000
2004 1780.000
2005 1830.000
2006 1880.000
2007 1930.000
2008 1980.000
2009 2030.000
,2010 2080.000
I
--,\
SOURCE:SCENARIOSB87.3--CREATED 4/83
K-15
''l
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MAP Documentation '
May 1983 ..
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Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
'May 1983
K.3.Scenario.Case Files for Base Ca~e
This section contains a written description plus the actual file
contents in table form of each case file used to form the base case
output of the scenario generator.
K-17
K-18
··1
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and Economic Research
MAP Documentation 1
May 19831
"
i
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and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
1.Trans-Alaska Oil Pipeline
Trans-Alaska Pipeline Service (TAPS)employment through 1977
included only the exogenous construction employment engaged in the
initial construction of the pipeline.After completion in 1977,
employment has been of two types .First,there has been additional
construction of four pump stations (see oil and Gas Journal,
2/25/80,p.72),and second,there is exogenous transportation
sector employment associated with operation of the line.
/
SOURCE:Construction estimate based on assumed installation of
four pump stations adding capaci ty of .15 mmbd each,from Beaufort
OCS Development Scenarios,Dames and Moore,1978.
Operations employment from Alaska Economic Trends,Alaska Dept.
of Labor,October 1978.
K-19
(thousands of employees)
TABLE K.3a.STATEWIDE BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
TRANS-ALASKA OIL PIPELINE
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
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1.500
1.500
1.500
1.500
1.500
1.500
1.500
1.500
1.500
1.500
Exogenous
Transportation
Employment
----~_.SOO
1.500
1.500
1.500
1.500
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
O.DOO
0.000
0.000
0.000
High Wage
Exogenous
Construction
Employment
1982 0.090 1.500
1983 0.000 1.500
1984 0.000 1.500
1985 0.000 1.500
1986 0.000 1.500
1987 0.000 1.500
1988 0.000 1.500
1989 0.000 1.500
1990 0.000 1.500
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001 ~O~.~O~O_O
2002 0.000
2003 0.000
2004 0.000
2005 0.000
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
1991 0.000 1.500
1992 0.000 1.500
1993 0.000 1.500
_.__._._.._~~_._---~_._._-"--~---T9Wf-~----O-:<Hro---~--~~--~-~~-T.500 ---
1995 0.000 1.500
SOURCE:MAP MODEL CASE TAP.083
VARIABLES:EMCNXI EMT9X
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.3b.REGIONAL BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
TRANS-ALASKA OIL PIPELINE
(thousands of employees)
8arrow-Southeast Valdez/Chitina/Yukon/
North Slope Fairbanks Fairbanks Whittier Koyukuk
)1982 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.406 0.552\1983 0.474 0.079I 0.079 0.316 0.552
1984 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 0.552
1985 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 0.552
1986 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 0.552
1987 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 0.552
1988 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 0.552
1989 .0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 0.552
1990 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 0.552
1991 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 0.552
1992 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 0.552
1993 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 0.552
1994 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 0.552
1995 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 0.552
1996 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 0.552
1997 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 0.552
1998 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 0.552
1999 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 0.552
2000 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 0.552
2001 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 0.552
2002 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 0.552
2003 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 0.552
2004 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 0.552
2005 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 0.552
2006 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 0.552
2007 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 0.552
2008 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 0.552
2009 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 0.552
·2010 0.474 0.079 0.079 0.316 0.552
SOURCE:MAP MODEL CASE TAP.083
VARIABLES:B04 B09 824 B26 829
K-21
K-22
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
.1
r
(
I
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
2.North Slope Petroleum Development
North Slope developments include employment associated with
primary recovery operations from the Sadlerochit formation,
secondary recovery (using waterflooding)of that formation,
development of·the Kuparuk formation west of Prudhoe Bay,and the
permanent work force of Atlantic Richfield Company (ARCO)and
British Petroleum (BP)at the main Prudhoe base headquarters,and a
variety of exploration and development efforts on state leases
outside of the Sadlerochit and Kuparuk areas.The key assumptions
serving as the basis for the employment forecasts are the following:
o A total of
approximately
field and 50
through 1985.
nine rigs continue to drill
50-55 wells at the Prudhoe Bay
wells at the Kuparuk field a year
j
I
..•1
o
o
o
The Prudhoe waterflood project is completed in
1984,adding 300 new .permanent operating
employees.
Construction employment involved in development
of primary and secondary recovery facilities at
the Kuparuk field peaks at 1,300 in 1985.
Construction employment for additional recovery
facilities at Kuparuk and Prudhoe,as well as for
developing production facilities at other North
Slope oil fields under state lease,maintains
total construction employment at 1,500 through
1990 and at 1,000 through 2010.
i
)
SOURCE:U.S.Army Corps of Eng i neers,Final EIS!Prudhoe Bay
Oilfield Waterflood Project,pp.2-60 ;and personal communication,
D.A.Casey,ARCO Oil and Gas Co.
K-23
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.4a.STATEWIDE BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
NORTH SLOPE PETROLEUM DEVELOPMENT
(thousands of employees)
High Wage
Exogenous
Construction Mining
Employment Employment
1982 2.000 2.300
1983 2.400 2.502
1984 1.800 2.502
1985 2.000 2.502
1986 2.400 2.502
1987 1.800 2.502
1988 1.500 2.502
1989 1.500 2.502
1990 1.500 2.502
1991 1.000 2.502
1992 1.000 2.502
1993 1.000 2.502
~9_94 --~-LOOO-~2.502--------._~--_.__........_---~.-
1995 1.000 2.502
1996 1.000 2.562
1997 1.000 2.502
1998 1.000 2.502
1999 1.000 2.502
2000 1.000 2.502
-·--2-001-----T.~lmf--------------2:5-02~------------------
----2002 l:~-OOO -~2_:_5-02--------
2003 1.000 2.502
2004 1.000 2.502
2005 1.000 2.502
2006 1.000
2007 1.000
2008 1.000
2009 1.000
2010 1.000
SOURCE:MAP MODEL CASE NSO.082
VARIABLES:EMCNX1 EMP9
K-24
2.502
2.502
2.502
2.502
2.502
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.4b.REGIONAL BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
NORTH SLOPE PETROLEUM DEVELOPMENT
i )(thousands of employees)
I
Barrow-North Slope
1982 4.300
1983 4.902
1984 4.302
1985 4.502
1986 4.902
1987 4.302
1988 4.002
1989 4.002
1990 4.002
1991 3.502
1992 3.502
1993 3.502
1994 3.502
1995 3.502
1996 3.502
1997 3.502
1998 3.502
1999 3.502
2000 3.502
2001 3.502
2002 3.502
2003 3.502
2004 3.502
2005 3.502
2006 3.502
2007 3.502
2008 3.502
2009 3.502
2010 3.502
SOURCE:MAP MODEL CASE NSO.082
VARIABLE:B04
K-25
'j
,J
",'~
'~
J
J
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
3.Upper Cook Inlet Petroleum Production
Petroleum sector employment in the Kenai-Cook Inlet census
division was 778 in 1979 (four-quarter average employment taken from
Alaska Department of Labor,Statistical Quarterly,1979 issues),
consisting of exploration,development,and production associated
with the Kenai oil and gas fields.Currently,the 120,000 barrels
per day output of oil is expected to decline drastically over the
forecast period,possibly as fast as 15 to 20 percent per year.The
decline may be partially slowed,however,by a possible redrilling
program being considered by the operators (see Oil and Gas Journal,
214/80,p.36).We assume a gradual employment decline to 383 by
2010 as oil wells are abandoned.Gas production is assumed to
remain relatively stable at around 5,000 mmcf/day.
SOURCE:Oil and Gas Journal,2/4/80;
communication,D.A.Casey,ARCO oil and Gas Co.
K-27
and personal
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.5a.STATEWIDE BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
UPPER COOK INLET PETROLEUM
<thousands of employees)
\
l
(
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
SOURCE:MAP MODEL CASE UPC.082
VARIABLE:EMP9
Mining
Employment
0.778
0.759
0.740
0.721
0.703
0.685
0.668
0.652
0.635
0.619
0.604
0.589
0.574
0.560
0.546
0.532
0.519
0.506
0.493
0.481
0.469
0.457
0.435
0.424
0.413
0.403
0.393
0.383
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.5b.REGIONAL BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
UPPER COOK INLET PETROLEUM
(thousands of employees)
Kenai-Cook Inlet
1982 0.778
1983 0.759
1984 0.740
1985 0.721
1986 0.703
1987 0.685
1988 0.668'
1989 0.652
1990 0.635
1991 0.619
1992 0.604
1993 0.589
1994 0.574
1995 0.560
1996 0.546
1997 0.532
1998 0.519
1999 0.506
2000 0.493
2001 0.481
2002 0.469
2003 0.457
2004 0.446
2005 0.435
2006 0.424
2007 0.413
2008 0.403
2009 0.393
2010 0.383
SOURCE:MAP MODEL CASE UPC.082
VARIABLE:B12
K-29
.\
./
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
4.Tertiary Recovery of North Slope Oil
There is currently no firm plan for the disposition of North
Slope natural gas,and recent studies have demonstrated the various
problems faced by all the current proposals (for example,Booz,
Allen and Hamilton,Inc.,report to the state of Alaska,1983;and
"Use in Alaska of North Slope Natural Gas,"Alaska Review of Social
and Economic Conditions,April 1983).In light of the dim prospects
for transport of the gas to market,an al ternati ve use would be in
tertiary recovery of North Slope oil.A pilot tertiary recovery
project is currently underway at Prudhoe Bay involving the
reinjection of natural gas liquids in a small portion of the field.
Alternative tertiary recovery methods are technically feasible but
have yet to be attempted in severe Arctic conditions.(See Options
for North Slope Gas Utilization,Michael Economides and Russell
Osterman,April 1982,for State of Alaska Division of Energy and
Power Development.)
This case assumes tertiary recovery project for Pruhoe Bay oil.
Since the dimensions of such a project have yet to be worked out,
the case is generic in its employment assumptions.Employment is
assumed to be on the same order of magni tude as the waterflooding
project.
K-31
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.6a.STATEWIDE BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
TERTIARY RECOVERY OF NORTH SLOPE OIL
(thousands of employees)
Mining
Employment
1982 0.000
1983 0.000
1984 0.000
1985 0.000
1986 0.000
1987 0.000
1988 0.000
1989 0.500
1990 1.000
\
J
(
~
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2003
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
SOURCE:MAP MODEL CASE NSO.TRC
VARIABLE:EMP9
2.000
2.000
1.000
0.500
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
O.OOQ
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0;000
0.000
J)
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.6b.REGIONAL BASE eASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
TERTIARY RECOVERY OF NORTH SLOPE OIL
(thousands of employees)
Barrow-North Slope
1982 0.000
1983 0.000
1984 0.000
1985 0.000
1986 0.000
1987 0.000
1988 0.000
1989 0.500
1990 1.000
1991 2.000
1992 2.000
1993 1.000
1994 0.500
1995 0.000
1996 0.000
1997 0.000
1998 0.000
1999 0.000
2000 0.000
2001 0.000
2002 0.000
2003 0.000
2004 0.000
2005 0.000
2006 0.000
2007 0.000
2008 0.000
2009 0.000
2010 0.000
SOURCE:MAP MODEL CASE NSO.TRC
VARIABLE:B04
K-33
1
!
J
~
...'1
OJ
J
..,~
l
)
\
!
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
5.Federal oes Exploration and Development
Our assumptions of employment associated with federal oes
exploration and development are based on the current five-year
federal oes lease schedule.For each planning area we assumed a
total level of resources to be discovered and developed.We
developed employment assumptions based on these resource levels.
The basic method used to derive the resource development assumptions
is described in pp.17-28 of Edward D.Porter,"The Five-Year oes
Leasing Schedule,1982-87,Alaska Impacts,"Bureau of Land
Management,Alaska oes office,August 1982.Estimates of
recoverable resources and probability of occurrence in each planning
area have been updated to May 1983 with information from the Alaska
oes office.
Table K.7 summarizes the current federal oes five-year leasing
schedule and the resources which we assumed to be developed by 2010
in each planning area.This table updates Table 7 in E.D.Porter,
.£p..cit.(p.26).In the most likely case,we assume that no
offshore gas resources are developed.Offshore oil resources are
developed only in the Beaufort Sea and the Navarin Basin.
Exploration continues in all areas,however,following the lease
sale schedule.
Based on the resource estimates for each planning area,we
developed employment assumptions for each lease sale.There is a
great deal of uncertainty with respect to the actual level of
employment which migh t be assoc iated with any·given sale.
Employment would depend not only on the resources discovered,but
also on factors such as the location of the discovery and the extent
to which exploration and development had taken place in connection
with earlier sales.
There is no consistent source for developing employment
assumptions for all sales.The employment assumptions used by the
Minerals Management Service,Alaska oes office,for environmental
impac t studies and technical reports are available only for lease
sales which have already been studied.These employment assumptions
are often based on differing assumptions about resources which are
developed than those we have used.In addition,the methodology
used to develop them appears to vary widely between different
reports.Despite these difficulties with past Minerals Management
Service employment assumptions,they remain the bes t source
available.We have used these assumptions as the primary basis ~or
our own oes employment assumptions,modifying them to take account
of differences in assumptions such as resource discoveries and
locations.
On the following pages,we present the .employment assumptions
associated with the oes planning areas listed in Table K.7,in the
order in which they are listed in the table.
K-35
,J
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Do~umentation 1
May 19831
TABLE K.7.OCSRESOURCE DEVELOPMENT ASSUMPTIONS \I
71 (1982)
87 (1984)
97 (1986)
57 (1983)
100 (1985)
70 (1983)
89 (1984)
101 (1986)
83 (1984)
107 (1986)
85 (1985)
109 (1987)
92 (1985)
3.8 0
o 0
2.2.45
.9 0
High Case
Oil .Gas
o 0
1.12 0
1.14 0
10.8 35.0
oo
o 0
o 0
o 0
1.14 0
6.1 0
Medium Case
oil Gas
o
o 0
o
o 0
o 0
Low Case
Oil GasDatesSales
Beaufort
Norton
Barrow Arch
Navarin
st.George
North Aleutian
Planning Area
------------Cook--In-let--....---88-----(1984-)···-0------0---0 ----0----~85----5;_0---.-._.-----
--------_._._...,._....__.__.__.._.....--...._......._-_..._------_...__._.._._......_._.__..-
aBillion barrels of oil,trillion cubic feet of gas.
3.8 0
o
42.2
o
14.56
o
o
o
7.14
oo(1986)99
Kodiak and
Shumagin
Total
(,
I
..j
1
I
1
}
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
Sa.Beaufort Sea OCS Employment Assumptions <Sales 71,87,and 97)
For the most likely case,we assume development of a total.of
6.1 billion barrels of oil in the Beaufort Sea.We assumed that
roughly half of this oil will be developed on tracts leased in
Sale 71,and that half will be developed on tracts leased in
Sales 87 and 97.Our employment assumptions are based on
unpublished information provided by the Minerals Management Service,
Alaska OCS office,in April 1983,which assumed development of
3.0 billion barrels of oil for Sale 87.We used these assumptions
for Sales 87 and 97,and assumed slightly lower levels of employment
for Sale 71;
K-37
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.8a.STATEWIDE BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
BEAUFORT SEA OCS (SALE 71)
(thousands of employees)
(millions of current $)
l~I
High Wage
Exogenous
Construction
Employment
Mining
Employment
Exogenous
Transportation
Employment
State
Property
Tax
Revenue
SOURCE:MAP MODEL CASE OCS.GI4
VARIABLES:EMCNX1 EMP9 EMT9X RPPS
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
-~~~~--~~-~~~-1993~-
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
0.341 0.375 0.052 0.000
0.208 0.375 0.052 0.000
0.250 0.535 0.104 0.000
0.250 0.575 0.117 0.000
0.800 0.575 0.384 0.000
0.800 0.546 0.683 0.000
0.340 0.568 0.200 0.000
0.952 1.001 0.411 0.000
0.327 0.980 0.257 51.000
0.873 1.265 0.752 53.000
0.36'l---~---~-1,203 ._-_._.__.~--~~._._-~~0~~461--5~5-;-00O-~~-
0.268 1.448 0.508 57.000
0.268 1.720 0.538 59.000
0.035 1.484 0.610 61.000
0.035 1.350 0.610 63.000
0.035 1.341 0.610 65.000
0.035 1.350 0.610 66.000
0.035 1.341 0.610 68.000
0.035 1.341 0.6TO to-'-O-O()
0.035 1.341 0.610 71.000
0.035 1.341 0.610 72 .000
0.035 1.341 0.610 74.000
0.035 1.341 0.610 74.000
0.035 1.341 0.610 75.000
0.028 1.341 0.538 75.000
0.028 1.315 0.538 75.000
0.028 1.315 0.538 75.000
0.028 1.315 0.538 73.000
.~
j
,-~
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.8b.REGIONAL BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
BEAUFORT SEA OCS (SALE 71)
(thousands of employees)
Barrow-
Anchorage North Slope
1982 0.000 0.000
1983 0.000 0.768
1984 0.000 0.635
1985 0.000 0.889
1986 0.000 0.942
1987 0.000 1.759
1988 0.000 2.029
1989 0.007 1.101
1990 0.011 2.353
1991 0.015 1.549
1992 0.059 2.831
1993 0.087 1.938
1994 0.100 2.124
1995 0.111 2.415
1996 0.120 2.009
1997 0.126 1.869
1998 0.126 1.860
1999 0.126 1.869
2000 0.126 1.860
2001 0.126 1.860
2002 0.126 1.860
2003 0.126 1.860
2004 0.126 1.860
2005 0.126 1.860
2006 0.126 1.860
2007 0.126 1.781
2008 0.126 1.755
2009 0.126 1.755
2010 0.126 1.755
SOURCE:MAP MODEL CASE OCS.G14
VARIABLES:B01 B04
K-39
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.9a.STATEWIDE BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
BEAUFORT SEA OCS (SALES 87,97).
(thousands of employees)
(millions of current $)
High Wage
Exogenous
Construction
Employment
Mining
Employment
Exogenous
Transportation
Employment
State
Property
Tax
Revenue
1982 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
1983 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
1984 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
1985 0.341 0.375 0.052 0.000
1986 0.208 0.375 0.052 0.000
1987 0.416 0.535 0.104 0.000
1988 0.468 0.575 0.117 0.000
1989 1.080 0.575 0.384 0.000
1990 1.824 0.546 0.713 0.000
1J
)
I
1991
1992
199"3--~
1994
1995
0.340
0.952
----O-.-3-2-7~--------
0.873
0.261
0.568 0.230 0.000
1.001 0.501 0.000
0.980--------0-.-38-7-----------7-2-.-000
1.265 0.912 75.000
1.203 0.651 78.000
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.9b.REGIONAL BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
BEAUFORT SEA OCS (SALES 87,97)
(thousands of employees)
Barrow-
Anchorage North Slope
1982 0.000 0.000
1983 0.000 0.000
1984 0.000 0.000
1985 0.000 0.768
1986 0.000 0.635
1987 0.000 1.055
1988 0.000 1.160
1989 0.000 2.039
1990 0.000 3.083
1991 0.007 1.131
1992 0.011 2.443
1993 0.015 1.679
1994 0.059 2.991
1995 0.087 2.028
,
1996 0.100 2.344
1997 0.111 2.665
1998 0.120 2.259
1999 0.126 2.119
2000 0.126 2.110
2001 0.126 2.119
2002 0.126 2.110
2003 0.126 2.259
2004 0.126 2.259
2005 0.126 2.259
2006 0.126 2.259
2007 0.126 2.259
2008 0.126 2.259
2009 0.126 2.005
2010 0.126 2.005
SOURCE:MAP MODEL CASE OCS.G01
VARIABLES:B02 B04
K-41
I)
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
)
I
,}
)
.-.---.-------.-.-.-.--.---.---------..-------..-.------..--------..-----..-------.--....----------.------------.-------.-------------.-----.J
1
}
,l,
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
5b.Norton Basin Des Employment Assumptions (DeS Sales 57 and 100)
We assume that no oil resources are developed in
the Norton Basin.We assume only exploration employment only for
Sales 57 and 100.Our Sale 57 exploration employment assumptions
are based on an exploration-only scenario from u.S.Department of
the Interior,BLM A1aska--OeS office,Bering-Norton Petroleum
Development Scenarios,Socioeconomic Studies Program,Technical
Report Number 49 (January 1980),p.106.Our Sale 100 exploration
employment assumptions are identical to these for Sale 57,but are
assumed to occur two years later.
K-43
I
)
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation )
"/May 1983
TABLE K.10a.STATEWIDE BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
Norton Basin OCS (Sale 57)
(thousands of employees)
High Wage
Exogenous Exogenous
Construction Mining Transportation
Employment Employment Employment
1982 0.000 0.000 0.000
1983 0.000 0.000 0.000
1984 0.000 0.046 0.022
1985 0.036 0.092 0.044
1986 0.036 0.046 0.022
1987 0.000 0.000 0.000
1988 0.000 0.000 0.000
1989 0.000 0.000 0.000
1990 0.000 0.000 0.000
1991 0.000 0.000 0.000
1992 0.000 0.000 0,.000
1993 0.000 0.000 0.000
~~--~----~-~.._-----~~-"·~·---19~94 ·---0-;-000 ~~O-;OOO-_·_-----O-;-OOO-~···_··~--_..._----~._---~----
1995 0.000 0.000 0.000
1996 0.000 0.000 0.000
1997 0.000 0.000 0.000
1998 0.000 0.000 0.000
1999 0.000 0.000 0.000
2000 0.000 0.000 0.000
2002 0.000 0.000 0.000
2003 0.000 0.000 0.000
2004 0.000 0.000 0.000
2005 0.000 0.000 0.000
2006 0.000 0.000 0.000
2007 0.000 0.000 0.000
2008 0.000 0.000 0.000
2009 0.000 0.000 ().()()()
2010 0.000 0.000 0.000
I./
}
)
)
SOURCE:MAP MODEL CASE OCS.G10
VARIABLES:EMCNXI EMP9 EMT9X
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.10b.REGIONAL BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
Norton Basin OCS (Sale 57)
(thousands of employees)
Nome
1982 0.000
1983 0.000
1984 0.068
1985 0.172
1986 0.104
1987 0.000
1988 0.000
1989 0.000
1990 0.000
1991 0.000
1992 0.000
1993 0.000
1994 0.000
1995 0.000
1996 0.000
1997 0.000
1998 0.000
1999 0.000
2000 0.000
2001 0.000
2002 0.000
2003 0.000
2004 0.000
2005 0.000
2006 0.000
2007 0.000
2008 0.000
2009 0.000
2010 0.000
SOURCE:MAP MODEL CASE OCS.G10
VARIABLE:B18·
K-45
~
Institute of Social
and Economic Research 1
MAP Documentation )
May 1983
TABLE K.11a.STATEWIDE BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
Norton Basin OCS (Sale 100)
(thousands of employees)
I \.J
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
High Wage
Exogenous Exogenous
Construction Mining Transportation
Employment Employment Employment
0.000 0.000 0.000
0.000 0.000 0.000
0.000 0.000 0.000
0.000 0.000 0.000
0.000 0.046 0.022
0.036 0.092 0.044
0.036 0.046 0.022
0.000 0.000 0.000
0.000 0.000 0.000
2.o_0_L __~~O_._0_0_O -------,O_._0_0_O,-----,O_._0_0_O
2002 0.000 0.000 0.000
2003 0.000 0.000 0.000
2004 0.000 0.000 0.000
2005 0.000 0.000 0.000
0.000 0.000
0.000 0.000
0.000 0.000
.·0:00-0--._._..--~~--0:000
0.000 0.000
1991
1992
1993
-19-9lJ
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
0.000
0.000
0.000
l>:O-O-(f-.------
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.<500
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
O.<5()(j
0.000
0.000
0.000
I
.~-~~----
)
}
f
SOURCE:MAP MODEL CASE OCS.G09
VARIABLES:EMCNX1 EMP9 EMT9X
-1-
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
TABLE K.1lb.REGIONAL BASE CASE ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
Norton Basin OCS (Sale 100)
(thousands of employees)
Nome
1982 0.000
1983 0.000
1984 0.000
1985 0.000
1986 0.068
1987 0.172
1988 0.104
1989 0.000
1990 0.000
1991 0.000
1992 0.000
1993 0.000
1994 0.000
1995 0.000
1996 0.000
1997 0.000
1998 0.000
1999 0.000
2000 0.000
2001 0.000
2002 0.000
2003 0.000
2004 0.000
2005 0.000
2006 0.000
2007 0.000
2008 0.000
2009 0.000
2010 0.000
SOURCE:MAP MODEL CASE OCS.G09
VARIABLE:B18
K-47
Institute of Social
and Economic Research
MAP Documentation
May 1983
I,/
~l
j
-')
}
}
\
r