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FLOOD FREQUENCY ANALYSES FOR
NATURAL AND WITH-PROJECT
CONDITIONS
FINAL REPORT
NOVEMBER 1985
DOCUMENT No.2958
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TNA JOINT VENTURE
FEDERAL ENERGY'REGULATORY COMMISSION
PROJECT No.7114
SUSITNA
HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT
SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT
FLOOD FREQUENCY ANALYSES
FOR
NATURAL AND WITH-PROJECT CONDITIONS
Report by
Harza-Ebasco Susitna Joint Venture
Prepared for
Alaska Power Authority
Document No.2958
Susitna File No.42.4.1
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Final Report
November 1985
ARLIS
.Alaska Resources
LIbrary &Information Servu;es
Anchorage,Alaska
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NOTICE
ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS CONCERNING
THIS REPORT SHOULD BE DIRECTED TO
THE ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY
SUSITNA PROJECT OFFICE
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
SECTION/TITLE
1.0 SUMMARY
2.0 BACKGROUND
3.0 SCOPE OF THE STUDY
4.0 INFLOW FLOOD HYDROGRAPHS FOR WATANA
5 .0 FLOOD FREQUENCY AT GOLD CREEK
5.1 NATURAL CONDITIONS
5.2 WITH-PROJECT CONDITIONS
5.2.1 Floods from Intervening Area
5.2.2 Watana Reservoir Releases
5.2.3 Floods at Gold Creek
6.0 FLOOD FREQUENCY AT SUSITNA STATION
6.1 NATURAL CONDITIONS
6.2 WITH-PROJECT CONDITIONS
7.0 FLOOD FREQUENCY AT SUNSHINE STATION
7.1 NATURAL CONDITIONS
7.2 WITH-PROJECT CONDITIONS
REFERENCES
TABLES
EXHIBITS
APPENDIX A
1.
1
3
4
5
7
7
7
8
10
15
17
17
17
19
19
19
20
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....
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Number
1
2
3
4
5
6
LIST OF TABLES
Title
Flood Frequency Data at Watana,Natural Conditions
Flood Peak Frequency Data at Gold Creek for Natural and
With-Project Conditions
Flood Peak Frequency Data for Intervening Areas
Outflows at Watana Reservoir
Flood Peak Frequency Data at Susitna Station for Natural and
With-Project Conditions
Flood Peak Frequency Data at Sunshine for Natural and With-Project
Conditions
......
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Number
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
LIST OF EXHIBITS
Title
Location Map
2-Year Flood Hydrographs at Watana .
5-Year Flood Hydrographs at Watana
lO-Year Flood Hydrographs at Watana
25-year Flood Hydrographs at Watana
50-year Flood Hydrographs at Watana
Flood Peak Frequency Curves at Gold Creek
Flood Peak Frequency Curves for Intervening Area between Cantwell
and Gold Creek
Annual Flood Peak Discharges,Susitna River at Gold Creek
Flood Peak Frequency Curves for Natural and With-Project
Conditions at Gold Creek
Flood Peak Frequency Curves at Susitna Station
Flood Peak Frequency Curves for Natural and With-Project
Conditions at Susitna Station
Flood Peak Frequency Curves for Intervening Area between Gold
Creek and Susitna Station
Flood Peak Frequency Curves for Natural and With-Project
Conditions at Sunshine
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1.0 SUMMARY
Flood frequency analyses were made for the Susitna River at Gold Creek,
Sunshine and Susitna Station for natural and with-project conditions of
Stages I,II and III of the proj ect.The resulting flood peak frequency
curves are shown on Exhibits 10,12 and 14.Tables 2,5 and 6 also show the
1"-
intervals.flood peaks for the selected recurrence
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Flood frequency curves were derived for the natural conditions for annual,
May-June and July-September periods using annual maximum floods ~n each
period.The Watana Reservoir inflow flood hydrographs for the 2-,5-,10-,
25-and 50-year recurrence intervals and for annual,May-June and July-
September periods were derived by two methods.In the first method,the
flood peaks and volumes (1-,3-,5-,10-and l5-day periods)of correspond-
ing recurrence intervals at Gold Creek were transposed to Watana site and
the hydrographs were constructed.This was based on the assumption that the
floods would originate from the drainage area upstream from the dam site.
In the second method,.the floods were assumed to originate from the area
intervening between Gold Creek and Watana site.Therefore,the flood
hydrogaphs of 2-,5-,10-,25-and 50-year recurrence intervals were derived
for the intervening area by transposing the flood peaks and volumes of
corresponding recurrence intervals,estimated for the area intervening
between Cantwell and Gold Creek stream gaging stations.These flood
hydrographs were subtracted from the corresponding flood hydrographs at Gold
Creek and the residual flows were assumed to represent the Watana inflows.
The two derived sets of hydrographs were routed through the reservoir us~ng
operational criteria for Stages I,II and III of the project,discussed
under Section 5.2.2 of tqis report,to obtain with-project outflows from the
Watana Reservoir.For the reservoir flood routings,starting reservoir
i"'"
elevations were derived from the "start of the week reservoir elevations"
obtained from the weekly reservoir operations study for the period 1950
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through 1983 for Case E-VI flow requirements in the License Application of
the project.They were assumed to be the median values during the June,
.May-June,and July-September periods,for annual,May-June and July-
September floods,respectively.The median value for June was taken as the
starting water surface elevation for annual floods because this is the month
in which the annual maximum flood is most likely to occur.
The median reservo~r water surface elevations were computed based on the
energy demands for the Stage I,Watana (low)operation,for the Stage II
Watana (low)-Devil Canyon operation and for the Early Stage III and Late
Stage III,Watana (high)-Devil Canyon operation.Based on these eleva-
tions,the Watana Reservoir outflows were determined for the selected
recurrence intervals,for each flood series and for each stage.
The detailed analyses made for Gold Creek indicated that the with-project
Watana outflows using inflows derived by the second method,when combined
with the corresponding flood from the intervening area would result in
higher flood peaks at Gold Creek for all three stages of the project.The
reservoir operation studies for Stages II and III indicated that the Devil
Canyon Reservoir will remain near its normal maximum water surface elevation
for essentially the entire flood season.Therefore,the flood peaks
entering the reservoir would not be significantly attenuated.Thus,the
Watana Reservoir outflows (second method)were·combined with the flood flows
of the corresponding recurrence interval from the intervening areas (between
Watana Reservoir and the downstream location of interest)to determine
with-project flood peaks at the downstream locations.
The flood peak frequency data indicate a decrease in the difference between
the floods peaks for natural and with-project conditions as the distance
increases downstream from Gold Creek.This is because of the floods from
the tributaries joining the Susitna River downstream from Gold Creek.
The with-project flood-frequency relationships presented ~n this study,
would change in the future if project design or project operation criteria
during floods are modified.
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,....
2.0 BACKGROUND
With-project flood frequency curves at Gold Creek were developed using
results of a weekly WatanalDevil Canyon reservoir operation study based on
the energy demands of 2002 and 2010 and were presented in the original
License Application for the project (APA,1983).11 The purpose of these
curves and that for natural conditions was to demonstrate the decrease in
the magnitude of floods resulting from project operation.
curves were developed for Sunshine and Susitna Station.
No frequency
These frequency
.....
curves were based on results of operation studies using weekly mean flows.
Flood peaks may be underestimated by this procedure,indicating a larger
attenuation of floods by the reservoirs than would actually occur.
Since the original License Application was ftled,the reservoir operation
criteria have been modified and the project is now planned to be constructed
~n three stages instead of two.The assessment of potential project impacts
on the Lower Susitna River (between the confluence of the Susitna and
Chulitna rivers and Cook Inlet)also has become necessary.Therefore,the
flood frequency curves for Gold Creek were re-evaluated and similar curves
for Sunshine and Susitna Station were derived (see Exhibit 1 for loca-
tions).
II Indicates reference at the end of the text.
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3.0.SCOPE OF THE STUDY
The major work items of the present study include:
1.Generation of annual,May-June and July-September Watana Reservoir
inflow flood hydrographs of var~ous recurrence intervals and for
center upstream from the reservoir ~n the first scenario and
downstream from the reservoir in the second scenario.-
two scenarios.The storms causing the floods were assumed to
2.Routing of the above hydrographs through the reservoir using the
most current reservoir operation criteria and starting reservoir
elevations representative for Stage I,II and III of the project;
,....
3.Estimation of the annual,May-June and July-September flood peaks
from the intervening areas;and
4.Development of annual,May-June and July-September max~mum flood
peak frequency curves for Gold Creek,Sunshine and Susitna Station
for natural and with-project conditions.
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"....
4.0 INFLOW FLOOD HYDROGRAPHS FOR WATANA
Two sets of Watana inflow hydrographs were derived for the annual,May-June
and July-September periods and for various recurrence intervals.In the
first case,it was assumed that the storm causing the flood would center in
the drainage area upstream from the Watana damsite.The flow from the area
intervening between the dam site and Gold Creek was assumed to be the dif-
ference between the respective flood hydrographs at the Watana dam si te and
Gold Creek.Therefore,the annual,May-June and July-September flood peaks
and 3-,7-and 15-day flood volumes were estimated for the Watana dam site
(with a drainage area of about 5,180 square miles)for the recurrence inter-
vals of 2,5,10,25 and 50 years (Table 1)by transposing the corresponding
data at Gold Creek (H-E,January 1984).The tran"sposed data were used to
develop the flood hydrographs shown on Exhibits 2 through 6.These hydro-
graphs were shaped after the historic flood hydrographs recorded at Gold
Creek which had flood peaks and volumes comparable to those shown on
Table 1.The selected floods include those of June 1980,July 1981,August
1967,August 1971 and June 1964 which were used to shape the 2-,5-,10-,
25-and 50-year floods,respec tive1y.The seasonal flood hydrographs of the
same recurrence intervals also were developed for Gold Creek using the flood
peaks and flood volumes at Gold Creek and shapes of these historic floods.
For the second case,the storms causing the floods were assumed to center in
the area intervening between Watana and Gold Creek and the di fferences
between respective flood hydrographs at Gold Creek and from the intervening
area were used as inflows to the Watana Reservoir.The floods of selected
recurrence intervals for the area between Watana and Gold Creek were devel-
oped from the flood peaks and volumes data for the area between Cantwell and
Gold Creek.
The 100-year flood hydrograph was not generated for this study because of
uncertainties involved in extension of the flood peak and flood vo 1ume
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.-,
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frequency curves for return periods much longer than the period of record.
The 50-year floods were considered to be large enough to study potential
project effects at downstream locations •
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5.0 FLOOD FREQUENCY AT GOLD CREEK
5.1 NATURAL CONDITIONS
The flood peak frequency curves for Gold Creek (with a drainage area of
about 6,160 square miles)are shown on Exhibit 7 for annual,May-June and
July-September periods.The curves were developed using the procedures
outlined by the U.s.Water Resources Council (WRC)(WRC,1981)and the ann-
ual maximum instantaneous discharges of the three periods for the water
years from 1949 through 1982 (Appendix A).The plotting positions shown on
the exhibit were computed using the Weibul1's formula,P=M/(N+1),where P 1S
the relative frequency,M is the rank of the flood event in order of magni-
tude with the events arranged in descending order and N is the number of
years of record.The resultl.ng flood peaks for selected recurrence inter-
vals are given in Column 3 of Table 2.
5.2 WITH-PROJECT CONDITIONS
Floods at a location downstream from a major storage reservoir may be caused
by a large regulated flood release from the reservoir combined with a rela-
tively small contribution from the area intervening between the reservoir
and the location of interest or by a smaller reservoir release combined with
a high flood flow from the intervening area.However,as the distance
between the reservoir and the downstream location increases,the flood from
the intervening area becomes more dominant and the regulation effect of the
reservoir becomes less important.For the purpose of this study,two proce-
dures were used to estimate with-project flood peaks at Gold Creek.In the
first procedure,the Watana inflow hydrographs determined for the first case
in ,Section 4.0,were routed through the reservoir and the outflow hydro-
graphs were combined with the hydrographs of respective recurrence inter-
vals,from the intervening area (Section 4.0).In the second procedure,the
residual inflow hydrographs determined for the second case in Section 4.0
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"1"''''
were routed through the reservoir and the outflow hydrographs were combined
with the flood hydrographs of respective recurrence intervals from the
intervening area.
The with-project flood -peaks resulting from the two procedures were com-
pared.For the May-June and annual series,the second procedure generally
resul ted in larger peaks for a given freq uency.Thi s is because the Watana
reservoir is capable of storing most of the flood flows and the outflows
were essentially constant (equivalent to the average turbine flows)in most
of the floods studied.Flood peaks from the intervening area were more
significant.For the July-September floods,both procedures gave nearly
the same peaks.Therefore,floods estimated by the second procedure were
adopted to define with-project flood-frequency relationships.
5.2.1 Floods from Intervening Area
The flood hydrographs for the area intervening between the Watana site and
Gold Creek (about 980 square mi les)were developed using flood peak and
volume (1-,3-,5-,10-and IS-day periods)data of various recurrence
intervals.These data were estimated by transposing the flood-peak and
volume frequency relationships estimated for the area between Cantwell and
Gold Creek (about 2020 square miles).The relationships,shown on Exhi-
bit 8,were developed by using the guidelines of WRC (WRC,1981)and the
annual,May-June and July-September maximum daily intervening flows for each
of the water years from 1961 through 1972 and of the water years 1981 and
1982 (Appendix A).The intervening flows were computed as di fferences
between the observed flows at Cantwell and Gold Creek.No adjustment was
made to the maximum dai ly intervening flows to obtain the instantaneous
intervening flows.
At the two stations,the max~mum daily flows generally occurred on days
other than those when the annual maximum instantaneous flood occurred.For
Gold Creek,the ratio between the annual maximum instantaneous flow and mean
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flow for the same day varies between 1.01 and 1.08.Thus,the ratios
-
between the maximum instantaneous flow and the maximum daily flow on the day
when maximum daily flow occurred are expected to be smaller than this for
each of the three series.Therefore,it was decided not to adjust the maxi-
mum daily flows (for the intervening area)upward for the maximum instan-
taneous flows.
Since the 14 years of flood data are not sufficiently long to estimate
floods of large recurrence intervals,the procedure recommended in United
States Geological Survey Publication 78-129 (USGS 78-129)(Lamke,1979)was
used to develop another set of flood-frequency relationships.The procedure
essentially involved the derivation of the relationship by using generalized
regression equations.The resulting flood peaks for,various recurrence
Q ::Qg
--
intervals were then adjusted by using the ratio between the floods of 5-year
recurrence interval taken from the curve based on observed data (Exhibit 8)
and from the regression equation (Lamke,1979).
The transposi tion of the resu1 ting flood peak-frequency data for the area
between Cantwell and Gold Creek to the area between the Watana dam site and
Gold Creek was made by the following relationship:
A n(T)(1)
g
~n which:
Q ::peak discharge from the area intervening between the Watana dam site
and Gold Creek for a given recurrence interval,cfs;
Qg ::peak discharge from the area intervening between Cantwell and Gold
Creek for the corresponding recurrence interval,cf s;
A ::drainage area between Watana dam site and Gold Creek,square miles;
Ag ::drainage area between Cantwell and Gold Creek,square miles;and
n ==exponent.
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A value of 0.5 was used for "n"as discussed in "Flood Frequency Analysis"
by Harza-Ebasco (H-E,January 1984).Table 3 shows the resulting flood peak
estimates for the selected recurrence intervals.The flood volume-frequency
data were transposed by drainage area ratio.
5.2.2 Watana Reservoir Releases
Watana inflow hydrographs resulting from the two procedures described 1n
Sub-section 5.2,were routed through the reservoir.An in-house reservoir
routing program was used to determine the releases from the reservoir.The
reservoir was operated using the folowing criteria for the three-stage
project:
A.Stage I
1.Normal max1mum pool level =2000 ft
2.Environmental surcharge level =2014 ft
-
3.
4.
Maximum outlet works capacity =24,000 cfs
Average turbine discharge (cfs)based on weekly reservoir
operation study for 1950-1983 period and Case E-VI flow
requirements (H-E,December 1985):
May-June
5,900
July-September
9,200
Annual
(For June)
8,900
5.Release Criteria
a.When reservoir elevation is less than or equal to
2,000 ft:
release is equal to turbine discharge,
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b.When reservoir elevation is between 2000 and 2000.5 ft:
release is made equal to turbine discharge plus
outlet works discharge increased gradually from
zero at elevation 2000 to 24,000 cfs at elevation
2000.5 ft,
c.When reservoir elevation is greater than 2000.5 but less
than 2014:
release 1S made equal to turbine discharge plus
24,000 cfs,
d.
B.Stage II
When reservoir elevation is equal to 2014 ft:Reservoir
level is maintained at 2014 by setting inflow equal
to outflow.The outlet works discharge is at full
capacity.The inflow in excess of the combined
capacity of outlet works and turbines is passed
through the spillway.
1.Normal maX1mum pool level =2000 ft
2.Environmental surcharge level =2014 ft
3.Maximum outlet works capacity =24,000 cfs
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4.Average and maximum turbine discharge (cfs)based on weekly
reservoir operation study using streamflow data for the 1950-
1983 period and Case E-VI flow requirements (H-E,December
1985)with the assumption that the Watana reservoir will be
operated to meet total power demand (no generation at Devil
Canyon)when at elevation 2,000 and greater are:
11
Elevation
less than 2000
2000 or greater
5.Release Criteria
May-June
3,400 (avg.)
10,100 (max.)
July-September
3,060 (avg.)
10,400 (max.)
Annual
(For June)
2,490 (avg.)
10,400 (max.)
a.When reservoir elevation is less than 2000 ft:
release is made equal to average turbine dis-
charge,
b.
c.
When reservoir elevation is between 2000 and 2000.5 ft:
release is made equal to maximum turbine discharge
plus outlet works discharge increased gradually
from zero at elevation 2000 to 24,000 cfs at
elevation 2000.5 ft,
When reservoir elevation is greater than 2000.5 but less
than 2014:
release 1S made equal to maX1mum turbine discharge
plus 24,000 cfs,
d.When reserV01r elevation is equal to 2014 ft:
reservoir level is maintained at 2014 by setting
inflow equal to outflow.The outlet works
,-
discharge is at full capaci ty.The inflow excess
of the combined capacity of the outlet works and
turbines is passed through the spillway.
C.Stage III,Early and Late
1.Normal maX1mum pool level =2185 ft
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2.Environmental surcharge level =2193 ft
3.Maximum outlet works discharge =24,000 cfs
4.Average and maximum turbine discharge (cfs)based on weekly
reservoir operation study using streamflow data for the 1950-
1983 period and Case E-VI flow requirements (H-E,December
1985)with the assumption that the Watana reservoir will be
operated to meet total power demand (no generation at Devil
Canyon)when at elevation 2185 and greater are:
I~
Stage Elevation May-June July-September Annual
(For June)
.....
III,less than 2185 4,130(avg.)3,7l0(avg.)3,340(avg.)
Early 2185 or greater 9,900(max.)9,900(max.)9,900(max.)
III,less than 2185 5,820(avg.)5,770(avg.)5,400(avg.)
Late 2185 or greater l2,500(max.)12,500(max.)12,500(max.)
5.Release Criteria
a.When reservoir elevation is less than 2185 ft:
release is made equal to average turbine dis-
charge,
b.When reserV01r elevation is between 2185 and 2185.5 ft:
release is made equal to maximum turbine discharge
plus outlet works discharge increased gradually
from zero at elevation 2185 to 24,000 cfs at
elevation 2185.5 ft,
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c.When reservoir elevation 1S greater than 2185.5 but less
than 2193:
13
d.
release is made equal to maximum turbine discharge
plus 24,000 cfs,
When reservoir elevation is equal to 2193 ft:
reservoir level 1S maintained at 2193 by setting
-inflow equal to outflow.The outlet works
discharge 1S at full capacity.The inflow in
excess of the combined capacity of the outlet works
and turbines is passed through the spillway.
The above criteria are based on "Dam Safety Criteria"g1ven 1n a previous
report (H-E,February 1985)and in the Amendment to the License Application
(APA,1985).The reservoir volume-elevation curve used in the reservoir
routing was that obtained from the License Application Amendment (APA,
1985).The starting reservoir water surface elevations were derived from
the "start of the week reservoir elevations"obtained through the weekly
reservoir operation study (H~E,December 1985)using streamflow data for the
period from 1950 through 1983 (using E-VI environmental flow requirements)
and were assumed to be the median values during June,May-June and July-
September periods,repectively,for the annual,May-June and July-September
floods.The assumption that the annual flood is most likely to occur in the
month of June is reasonable because about 60 percent of the historic annual
max1mum floods occurred in this month (Exhibit 9).
The median reservoir water surface elevations (starting elevations)were
computed for the Watana (low)operation for Stage I energy demands,for the
Watana (low)-Devil Canyon operation for Stage II energy demands and for
the Watana (high)-Devil Canyon operation for early and late Stage III
energy demands.Based on the respective starting elevations,the outflows
from the Watana Reservoir,which when combined with the flows from the area
intervening between Watana and Gold Creek,will provide maximum peaks at
Gold Creek,corresponding to the 2-,5-,10-,25-and 50-year recurrence
intervals and the Stages I,II and III energy demands were determined
.....42189221
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through the reservoir routing as shown ~n Table 4.These flows are
essentially constant for a number of days and hence were assumed to travel
to Gold Creek,Sunshine and Susitna Station gages without attenuation •
The Watana Reservoir outflows (Table 4)indicate that the seasonal 2-,5-,
10-,25-and 50-year floods that would occur in the May-June period would be
controlled by the reservoir and the maximum outflow would not exceed the
discharge from the turbines.This conclusion remains the same for all
stages.This conclusion also is true for the annual flood except that for
25-and 50-year floods,the outlet works would be used for Stage II and
Early Stage III,and for the 50-year flood for Stage I conditions.
During the July-September period,the reservoir elevations at the beginning
of the flood would generally be higher than for the other periods.There-
fore,following the operation criteria described earlier,the use of the
outlet works would become necessary during the floods of all selected recur-
rence intervals under the energy demands for all stages except for Late
Stage III.For Late Stage III,Watana Reservoir will have to be operated at
lower reservoir elevations to meet the increased energy demand.Under such
conditions,the floods of all recurrence intervals would be controlled and
outflow would be the same as the average turbine discharge.
5.2.3 Floods at Gold Creek
The flood releases from Watana Reservoir for a given recurrence interval,
were combined with the flood of the corresponding recurrence interval from
the area intervening between Watana and Gold Creek to determine with-project
floods at Gold Creek for the two cases discussed under Sub-section 5.2.
Results of the Devil Canyon Reservoir operation studies indicated that the
reservoir water surface elevation will remain essentially at its normal
maximum throughout the flood season.Therefore,attenuation of flood peaks
by Devil Canyon Reservoir was assumed to be insignificant.Since the second
procedure resulted in higher with-project flood peaks at Gold Creek,those
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peaks were adopted.The resul ting wi th-proj ect floods (second procedure)
are gl.ven in Columns 4 to 7 of Table 2.Exhibit 10 shows the frequency
curves for natural and with-project conditions.
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Hi
6.0 FLOOD FREQUENCY AT SUSITNA STATION
6.1 NATURAL CONDITION
The flood peak data at Susitna Station,with a drainage area of about 19,400
square miles,are available for the water years from 1975 through 1982
(Appendix A).This period is too short to estimate flood peaks of large
recurrence intervals.Therefore,the procedure recommended in USGS publica-
tion 78-129 (Lamke,1979)was used to develop the flood frequency curve.
The procedure has been discussed briefly under Sub-section 5.2.1.Exhi-
bit 11 shows the flood frequency curve for annual,May-June and July-
September periods based on observed data.The plotting positions of the
points shown on the curves were computed using Weibu11's formula.The
adjusted flood frequency curve is shown on Exhibit 12.The flood peaks of
selected recurrence intervals are given in Column 3 of Table 5.
6.2 WITH-PROJECT CONDITIONS
The flood peaks for with-project conditions were obtained us~ng the proce-
dure adopted for Gold Creek.That is,the constant release from the Watana
Reservoir for a given recurrence interval was added to the flood peak of the
corresponding recurrence interval from the area (about 14,220 square miles)
intervening between the Watana Reservoir and Susitna Station.The flood
peaks for the area between the Watana Reservoir and Susitna Station were
derived by transposing the flood frequency relationship estimated for the
area (about 13,240 square mile)between Gold Creek and Susitna Station.The
relationship was estimated using flood frequency curves based on observed
data (Exhibit 13)and the procedure recommended in USGS publication 78-129
(Lamke,1979)because of the short length of record (for water years from
1975 through 1982).The transposition was made using Equation 1 given in
Sub-section 5.2.1 with the values of flood peaks and drainage areas replaced
by those between the Watana Reservoir and Susitna Station,and Gold Creek
and Susitna Station.
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The maX1.mum daily intervening flows used 1.n the frequency analysis were
computed by the same method used for the area between Cantwell arid Gold
Creek.The resulting frequency curves shown on Exhibit 13,were derived
"'..
using the guidelines of the WRC (WRC,1981).
The with-project flood frequency curves resulting from the analysis are
shown on Exhibit 12.The flood peaks of selected recurrence intervals are
g1.ven in Columns 4 to 7 of Table 5.The with-project frequency curves are
shown for three stages of the project.
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7.0 FLOOD FREQUENCY AT SUNSHINE
7.1 NATURAL CONDITION
There are only about 3 years of flow record for Sunshine (drainage area of
about 11,100 square miles).These are not sufficient to derive a reliable
flood frequency relationship.Therefore,the flood peak frequency relation-
ships developed for Susitna Station for annual,May-June and July-September
periods were transposed to this site by Equation 1 given in sub-section
5.2.1 using the appropriate values of flood peaks and drainage areas.A
value of 0.5 was used for the exponent "n".The resulting curves for ann-
ual,May-June and July-September periods are shown on Exhibit 14.The flood
peaks of selected recurrence intervals are given in Column 3 of Table 6.
7 •2 WITH PROJECT CONDITIONS
The flood peaks for with-project conditions were estimated using the proce-
dures adopted for Gold Creek and Susitna Station.The intervening area
between the Watana Reservoir and Sunshine is about 5,920 square miles.The
flood data for the intervening area were estimated by transposing the data
for the area between Gold Creek and Susitna Station.The resulting curves
for annual,May-June and July-September periods are ·shown on Exhibit 14,and
the flood peaks of selected recurrence intervals are given in Columns 4 to 7
of Table 6 for three stages of the project.
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19
,~
REFERENCES
Alaska Power Authority,February 1983:Before the Federal Energy Regulatory
Commission,Application for License for Major Project,Susitna
Hydroelectric Project,Volume SA,Exhibit E,Chapter 2,prepared by
Acres American,Inc.
,1985,Before the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission,Amendment to---the Application for License for Major Project,Susitna Hydroelectric
Project (Draft),prepared by Harza-Ebasco Susitna Joint Venture.
Harza-Ebasco Susitna Joint Venture,January 1984:Flood Frequency Analysis,
Susitna Hydroelectric Project,Federal Energy Regulatory Commission
Project No.7114,Final Report,prepared for the Alaska Power
Authority.
,February 1985,Case E-VI,Alternative Flow Regime,Susitna---Hydroelectric Project,Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Project,
No.7114,Final Report,prepared for the Alaska Power Authority.
,December 1985,Susitna Hydroelectric Project,Weekly Stream Flows and----Flow Duration Curves,Three-Stage Project,for the Alaska Power
Authority
Lamke,R.D.,Flood Characteristics of Alaskan Streams,1979:u.S.Geologi-
cal Survey,Water Resources Investigations 78-129,Anchorage,Alaska.
U.S.Water Resources Council,1981:Guidelines for Determining Flood Fre-
quency,Bulletin #17B,Washington D.C.
42189221
851118
20
TABLES
Table 1,-FLOOD FREQUENCY DATA AT WATANA1I
NATURAL CONDITIONS
Recurrence Interval (Year)
2 5
10 25 50
Annual Series
Flood Peak,cfs ,!-3,500 57,400 67,000 79,800 89,500
Flood Volume,mean discharge,cfs
~3-day 36,028 47,062 54,485 64,027 71,251
I 7-day 32,297 41,182 46,910 54,015 59,233
15-day 28,529 35,004 39,049 43,950 47,478-
May-June Period
Flood Peak,cfs 39,000 51,500 60,800 73,800 84,400
pill'"Flood Volume,mean discharge,cfs
3-day 32,188 42,242 49,592 59,732 67,900
7-day 29,114 37,701 43,813 52,043 58,553
,~15-day 26,036 32,968 37,432 42,969 47,034
""'"July-September Period
Flood Peak,cfs 34,200 45,700 54,500 67,200 77 ,800
Flood Volume,mean discharge,cfs
3-day 28,013 36,783 43,547 53,233 61,341
"""7-day 25,766 32,521 37,379 43,970 49,210
15-day 23,840 28,728 31,795 35,530 38,227
"""
1/Source:Harza-Ebasco Susitna Joint Venture,Final Report January,1984:
Flood Frequncy Analysis,Susitna Hydroelectric Project No.7114,
Document No.474,prepared for Alaska power Authority.
42189221/TBL
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--------------""'1'I-------------"'"!"""-------......,.--
Table 2
I""~FLOOD PEAK FREQUENCY DATA AT GOLD CREEK
FOR NATURAL AND WITH-PROJECT CONDITIONS
Natural
Recurrence Flood Flood Peaks (cfs)With-Project
Flood Interval Peak!/Stage I Stage II Stage III
Period (Year)(cfs)Early Late(1-)-(2)0)(4)(5)(6)(7)
.....Annual 2 48,000 25,600 19,200 20,000 22,100
5 63,300 33,300 26,900 27,700 29,800
10 73,700 37,700 31,300 32,100 34,200
25 87,300 41,600 35,200 36,000 38,100
~!lii,50 97,700 46,200 39,600 40,600 42,700
-May-June 2 42,500 19,800 17,300 18,000 19,700
5 56,200 26,800 24,300 25,000 26,700
10 66,300 30,600 28,100 28,800 30,500
'Ji,",25 80,500 33,900 31,400 32,100 33,800
50 92,100 37,900 35,400 36,100 37,800
~-Ju1y'-2 37,300 36,500 36,500 35,500 15,700
September 5 49,800 .43,100 43,100 43,100 21,300
10 59,400 43,500 44,500 43,500 24,000
~r,q,25 73,200 44,000 45,000 45,000 26,500
50 84,800 46,600 47,100 47,300 29,500
~$!'Pi
.Y From H-E report,January,1984 •
42189221/TBL
851118
2
..-
Table 3
-FLOOD PEAK FREQUENCY DATA
FOR INTERVENING AREAS
Recurrence Interval,(Year)
2 5 10 25 50
Flood Peaks,(cfs)...,
l.Between Cantwell and Gold Creek
Annual 24,000 35,000 41,300 46,900 53,600
PO;IIflI,May-June 20,000 30,000 35,400 40,200 45,900
July-September 14,200 22,200 26,200 29,700 34,000
I".~2.Between Watana and Gold Creek
Annual 16,700 24,400 28,800 32,700 37,300
May-June 13,900 20,900 24,700 28,000 32,000
July-September 9,890 15,500 18,200 20,700 23,700.-
3.Between Gold Creek and Susitna Station
Annual 149,000 173,000 192,000 212,000 230,000
AiIIW-<lII May-June 115,000 131,000 146,400 161,000 174,000
July-September 147,000 172 ,200 191,000 211,000 229,000
.....4.Between Watana and Sunshine
Annual 99,700 116,000 128,000 142,000 154,000
May-June 76,900 87,600 97,700 108,000 116,000
July-September 98,300 115,000 128,000 141,000 153,000
5.Between Watana and Susitna Station
Annual 154,000 179,000 199,000 220,000 238,000
fl'lI~May-June 119,000 136,000 151,000 167,000 180,000
July-September 152,000 178,000 198,000 219,000 237,000
~-
42189221/TBL
851118
3
....
-
42189221/TBL
851118
4
42189221/TBL
851118
5
"f"'.4 ~
~'"
Table 6
FLOOD PEAK FREQUENCY DATA AT SUNSHINE
FOR NATURAL AND WITH-PROJECT CONDITIONS
.....
Recurrence Natural Flood Peaks (cfs)With-Project
Flood Interval Flood Stage I Stage II Stage III
Period (Year)Peak Early Late---0-)-(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)
Annual 2 143,000 109,000 102,000 103,000 105,000-"5 166,000 125,000 118,000 119,000 121,000
10 183,000 137,000 130 ,000 131,000 133,000
25 200,000 151,000 144,000 145,000 147,000
~50 214,000 163,000 156,000 157,000 159,000
May-June 2 118,000 82,800 80,300 81,000 82,700,...'5 135,000 93,500 91,000 91,700 93,400
10 149,000 104,000 101,000 102,000 104,000
25 163,000 114,000 111,000 112,000 114,000
50 174,000 122,000 119,000 120,000 122,000
;*1Il July-2 138,000 129,000 129,000 128,000 104,000
September 5 163,000 148,000 149,000 149,000 121,000
10 180,000 161,000 162,000 162,000 134,000
25 196,000 174,000 175,000 175,000 147,000
,~50 210,000 186,000 187,000 187,000 159,000
42189221/TBL
851118
6
I
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APPENDIX
f,~
APPENDIX A
~BASIC DATA USED IN THE STUDY
1 -Instantaneous Flood Peak and Flood Volume Data at Gold Creek
May -June Period
I-day 3-day 7-day 15-day
Year Peak Flow Flow Flow Flow
(cfs)(cfs)(cfs)(cfs)(cfs)
~
1949
1950 37,300 34,000 32,067 27,029 24,773
1951 37,400 35,800 32,133 29,814 25,247
1952 44,700 43,300 42,333 39,471 36,620
1953 38,400 37,700 37,233 35,514 31,007
1954 31,900 30,100 29,500 28,514 25,767
1955 40,300 38,000 37,300 35,957 34,567
1956 51,700 51,500 49,900 46,757 40,300
1957 42,200 40,600 39,933 38,386 35,500
1958 29,700 28,000 28,000 28,000 28,000
1959 42,000 39,600 37,167 30,657 27,307
1960 42,400 40,000 35,800 27,886 23,680
~1961 59,300 54,000 52,000 42,714 36,767
1962 80,600 79;900 75,233 64,657 53,233
1963 47,700 45,000 42,867 37,114 33,853
1964 90,700 85,900 81,900 75,029 63,467
1965 43,600 39,900 37,367 33,643 27,873
1966 63,600 58,400 56,633 49,171 39,780
1967 41,100 38,800 37,433 34,814 31,520
,~1968 41,800 39,700 38,933 38,057 36,507
1969 28,400 26,500 24,433 20,514 16,467
1970 33,400 30,800 30,100 26,529 20,627
~1971 70,300 66,300 59,000 48,286 38,167
1972 82,600 70,700 65,600 53,547 39,800
1973 54,100 52,800 45,333 40,914 34,560
1974 37,200 33,600 33,233 32,414 29,340
f'-1975 47,300 44,000 42,200 37,114 33,333
1976 35,700 33,300 32,133 29,843 27,920
1977 54,300 52,600 52,200 48,343 41,513
1978 25,000 24,300 23,800 23,129 20,560
1979 36,500 34,400 33,900 32,214 29,353
1980 44,700 43,200 40,267 34,657 31,327
1981 31,800 30,000 25,900 22,771 20,587
1982 37,900 37,000 33,667 29,857 27,867
-
.-
42189221/APP
851118
1
"'------_..--_._-------------------------------
r
i
APPENDIX A
BASIC DATA USED IN THE STUDY
July -September Period
I-day 3-day 7-day 15-day
Year Peak Flow Flow Flow Flow
(cfs)(cfs)(cfs)(cfs)(cfs)
1949 38,700 35,000 34,033 31,943 30,920
1950 34,500 32,500 29,567 26,314 25,407
1951 33,700 31,800 31,467 30,600 27,340
1952 44,500 41,900 41,633 37,843 31,700-1953 29,800 28,000 27,300 26,014 24,053
1954 42,400 41,000 40,333 33,286 28,333
1955 58,100 56,900 53,967 43,071 31,973
1956 34,000 32,000 32,000 32,000 32,000
1957 36,600 34,500 31,267 26,271 24,467
1958 49,600 47,800 45,933 39,257 32,500
1959 62,300 59,700 56,667 49,143 43,293
1960 41,900 40,100 36,200 34,300 30,447
1961 32,100 30,300 27,100 26,114 25,853
1962 34,700 32,700 28,633 27,686 26,840
1963 53,800 44,000 42,333 40,257 39,187
1964 35,200 33,200 29,100 27,114 25,840
1965 38,500 37,700 34,900 31,986 30,120
1966 35,500 33,500 31,367 27,329 25,960-1967 80,200 76,000 69,267 55,386 42,176
1968 34,000 32,000 31,567 29,429 28,387
1969 22,200 20,900 20,200 19,086 17,747-1970 33,500 31,600 29,533 26,543 24,487
1971 87,400 77,700 72,733 57,886 41,693
1972 28,900 27,200 26,300 25,471 25,487
1973 32,400 30,500 29,900 27,800 22,380
1974 28,700 26,300 25,000 21,900 18,840
1975 36,000 33,900 32,533 30,729 28,800
1976 34,000 32,000 30,000 28,571 24,933
1977 32,000 30,000 29,667 27,858 25,080
1978 25,600 24,100 23,267 22,500 21,627
1979 41,300 39,300 34,767 31,886 31,707
,-1980 51,900 49,700 45,067 37,657 33,733
1981 64,900 60,800 54,533 48,543 42,607
1982 34,500 32,500 30,933 28,114 27,053
~
42H19221/APP
85lJ1.18
2
APPENDIX A
-BASIC DATA USED IN THE STUDY
Annual--
I-day 3-day 7-day 15-day
Year Peak Flow Flow Flow Flow
(cfs)(cfs)(cfs)(cfs)(cfs)
1949 38,700 35,000 34,033·31,943 30,920
~1950 37,400 34,000 32,067 27,029 25,407
1951 37,400 35,800 32,133 30,600 27,340
1952 44,700 43,300 42,333 39,471 36,620
1953 38,400 37,700 37,233 35,514 31,007
1954 42,400 41,000 40,333 33,286 38,333
1955 58,100 56,900 53,967 43,071 35,520
1956 51,700 51,500 49,900 46,757 40,300-1957 42,200 40,600 39,933 38,386 35,500
1958 49,600 47,800 45,933 39,257 32,500
1959 62,300 59,700 56,667 49,143 43,293
~1960 41,900 40,100 36,200 34,300 30,447
1961 59,300 54,000 52,000 42,714 36,767
1962 80,600 79,900 75,233 64,657 53,233
,.....1963 53,800 45,000 42,867 40,257 39,187
1964 90,700 85,900 81,900 75,029 63,467
1965 43,600 39,900 37,367 33,643 31,280
1966 63,600 58,400 56,633 49,171 39,780..-1967 80,200 76,000 69,267 55,386 42,187
1968 41,800 39,700 38,933 38,057 36,507
1969 28,400 26,500 24,433 20,514 17,747
,~1970 33,400 31,500 30,100 26,529 27,107
1971 87,400 77 ,700 72,733 57,886 41,693
1972 82,600 70,700 65,600 53,547 39,800
1973 54,100 52,800 45,333 40,914 34,560
1974 37,200 33,600 33,233 32,414 29,340
1975 47,300 44,000 52,200 37,114 33,333
1976 35,700 33,300 32,133 29,843 27,920
-I~1977 54,300 52,600 52,200 48,343 41,513
1978 25,600 24,300 23,800 23,129 22,593
1979 41,300 39,300 34,767 32,214 31,707
1980 51,900 49,700 45,067 37,657 33,733
1981 64,900 60,800 54,533 48,543 42,607
1982 37,900 37,000 33,667 29,857 27,867
42189221/APP
851118
3
APPENDIX A
BASIC DATA USED IN THE STUDY
2 -Daily Maximum Intervening Flows Between Cantwell and Gold Creek
Stream Gaging Stations
Year May -June July -September Annual
(cfs)(cfs)(cfs)
1961 18,300 11,300 18,300
1962 44,200 14,000 44,200
1963 22,000 17,000 22,000
1964 36,800 10,800 36,800
1965 16,800 16,000 16,800
1966 40,100 17,500 40,100
1967 18,400 39,600 39,600
1968 16,600 12,000 16,000
1969 10,500 5,600 10,500
,~1970 15,800 14,000 15,800
1971 22,300 25,900 25,900
1972 33,100 10,000 33,100
1981 12,000 31,400 31,400
1982 13,800 14,800 14,900
3 -
Daily Maxinum Intervening Flows Between Gold Creek and
Susitna Station Stream Gaging Stations
Year May -June July -September Annual
(ds)(cfs)(cfs)
1975 102,400 140,400 140,400
1976 109,000 124,500 124,500
1977 144,600 137,000 144,600
1978 95,800 106,400 106,400
1979 128,700 141,400 141,400
1980 127,000 184,800 184,800
1981 106,600 177 ,400 177,400
1982 113,000 176,000 176,000
4 -
Instantaneous Flood Peaks at Susitna Station
Year May -June July -September Annual
(cfs)(cfs)(cfs)
1975 165,000 173,000 173,000
1976 134,000 147,000 147,000
1977 197,000 170,000 197,000
1978 121,000 136,000 136,000
1979 162,000 185,000 185,000
1980 177,000 230,000 230,000
I"'"1981 135,000 230,000 230,000
1982 145,000 213,000 213,000
42189221!APP
851118
4