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Home My WebLink AboutAPA3185ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY SUSI'INA UTILITY MEETING June 19,1985 RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSES ,Pr~""6 no_31'K~ ,'f" Phone:(907)2n·7841 (907)2,78-0001 Please Return To DOCUMENT CONTROL =-I!), ;:;I!) ~O ...... ~"'"=-~ 334 ,~'g AVENUE·ANCHORAGE.ALASKA saeso1 _Or 1XlLi\-~~OO&®©@===r--.'S M I Venture -M ~umber ,,_1 3 \~5 ----~---- LOAD FORECAST utility Load Forecast -June 1985 utility Load Forecast 1985-2000 by Uti1~ty utility Load Forecast 1985-2020 SOuthern Railbe1t utility Load Forecast 1985-2020 Northern RaUbe1t utility Load Forecast 1985-2020 Total Rai1be1t utility Load Forecast -November 1984 utility Load Forecast 1985-2000 by utility utility Load Forecast 1985-2020 Total Rai1belt EXISTING GENERATION SYSTEM ,AMLP eM FMUS GVEA UTILITY SHORr-TERM EXPANSION PLANS (1985-1995) Plant Parameters and COsts Northern Railbe1t southern Rai1be1t Total Railbe1t lONG-TERM EXPAN3ION PT.ANS Index to Sensitivity Analyses New Plant Parameters and Costs New Thenna1 Additions New Hydroelectric Additions (EFC) ARLIS Alaska Resources Library &Information ServIces' Anchorage,Alaska ALASIiA.POWER AUTHORITY - I .,.... -, ..... 334 WEST 5th AVENUE·ANCHORAGE,ALASKA 89501 SUSI'INA UTILITY MEETING June 19,1985 RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY hl.~ALYSES IDNG-TERM EXPANSION PlANS (cont 'd.) o.Base Analysis (5 TCF Gas) Cost of Energy State Contribution Expansion Plans Wi th-Susitna Without-Sus i tna Fuel Price Sumnary 1.2 TCF Gas (same as above) 2.Low Gas Price (Same as above) 3.Low Gas &Coal Price (Same as above) 4.Low Coal Price with Diazoond Plant (Same as above) 5.Low Finance (Same as above) 6.Low Inflation (Same as above) 7.Matanuska (same as above) 8.Phase I (Same as above) 9.No Coal Export (Same as above) 10.Keetna (Same as above) Phone:(907)2n·7841 (907)276-0001 IT!I· SUMMARY RESULTS -2- ARLIS Alaska Resources . ~SLibrary&Inlonnatlon ervlCes Anchorage,Alaska --_.---_~__.;.;...._'-----"'9"--,-'-~-----------'------- T I UTILITY LOAD FORECAST - JUNE 1985 NOTE:The June 85 Utility Load Forecast reflects the April 85 GVEA Power Requirements Study results and revised load growth beyond the years 2000 in the APA Reference Case Forecast. .,-:---11:~. .' 2020 .~ 2015 ---_.+-------- 2.0102005 _______--0-_.__.•,~ ...-r-+ 2000 .-.---_...-----...----.......-------.-..-1-..--------I o:=---r '--I 1995 -_._---;;~~ -----l----·----..-t·---..·--·--t·.:tt;'I C'l .-...0-~;.-B .s'"-_.--.. __n __J::I-EJ',6 ..t:··'t':JL.I ~!-t:rt=r~..-"---::t-·---·----~_....·-·-·_..-·-r---------...-...-----fr-.-h-tr--tr---fr....!'.r '-fr--/:i-fr-'ft-I!t-----l:r-O---t.r-A---f'r---t.,.::~~~-,.--~~~~:---~~~~~~~~-+-I • I -r I t ...-r.-r.--r--,---,--,----.-- 1990 1 1985, 3 2 .. U l,;I :~.\I I 0 .........r~C',...-,..../')r--a C'~.--1:-n c:J r 1''1 \/l.I I I l.Y L.\...J '-..J I V I ,....\...-':>\.L_.I \....-'::J Y SUSITNA POWE T<SAI.,fS NE GOll/\TIONS 8 "'r-..-----..-----·r-·--·-··--..·-·T·-..-.--·····-..·····-..··..-----·-·-·-····-·..-...-.....-.--.......--...---..,..._._.-.-..__._-... I-;+-----+-.~--1-----.-..-.------....--..---4---- 6 -J----.--1 TOTAL.1 ILBELT -J --~.~---I-.-+-1-- i,. ".., .r: ~ l~ "-" Z,........., Om -'0~c 0:::0w~Zo ld..c ~t- '--">- () 0::: Ld Z W I I'I I I' II I, o AMLP +C[/\ YEAI~ ()FMUS (),GVEA ~--J --------l I !l-',iit\/ \.j\'"!I\..;; I (,r'1 (~~:.'(-1 r'(")("(1 c,:i·..-.I~)p n k 1 ........./'-..-4 '"..........I '-./I ,,"../,,........................J '\".,.........,...........,..... susn N/\POW[I~SAL f S NECOTIATIONS [)(~r II (]n (t 1.5 -'--_._-._-._._[-.----..--.[.-.----'--'J'-.,-.----.---.--- _..__-._..--.--.--..----..--- 1 .4 --t-----------..-------...---.'_"0_."•.---.-.-._..•.-.---.-.-----.---'-"'---'"------_..--0-._ 1.~~··l·._---.--...-----..--.-..-..--..----..--"-_....---.._-_.-.----_.-.--._---...-....- 1.2 -I-··..-------~----~t~~~;~~t;----...+_.7~'---<-----...-.+..---- 1 .1 -I . .' 202<12015 .,-+-.-. 2010 ~-(7--~-~•0 .~()0 .~ -'"- -..-.._--_.--1-, 2005 +-+--+--'"" fr:{;}-~j~8-B-·H--B_._--._--------- 20001995 ----.-.....----+----..-..---..-.-.-~--.-.-.-------t-........·--··---,--,---.--1 _ --..-.-----.------.--•.----.-.-.,-.------.-..-..-.-"I-I .------- ---_.._.._._-.___--~~_.._--_.-.---_.._.........._._- 1990 o .3 I .._--~-•.-'-"-- o.~n;;-~rr-+_~-r;___,..,~-r-t-r~_._~t___r_r-~_._+••n 1985 ,.--.,1 -5: 2'-....,.........0.9 -(J) DOO Zc 0.8«02~0.7Wo 0.£ ~t:..0.6 -+----- «w 0.5 ..n_ 0.4 o AMLP +CEA YEAH o FMUS f:\GVEA ~~.'\I ~.~-.ls'------J SUSITNA POYER SALES NEGOTIATIONS T.bl.1 -RAILHELT UTILITIES'LOAD FORECAST I JIIlE I'lB5 CEA/IlEA/HEA/5ES AllP FtUi GV£A 11 RAILBELT TOTAL..__.............._--_..--.----_...------------------..----...............----------------------....---......_..--_.._-_.....-PEAK -..-.._-----...............-..------ LOAD LOAD LOAO LOAD COINe !OENeE COIN.LOAD YEAR ENERGY PEAK FACTOR ENERGY PEAK FACTOR ENERGY PEAK FACTOR ENERGY PEAK FACTOR FACTOR 21 ENERGY PEAK FACTOR-----_........-----_..------_......----------------......_---------_..--_.._._---------------......--- IGUhI (1111)(p'rc,ntl IGUhI IIIloII IPlrunt I IGloIhl (1IloI1 (Plruntl IG""I 11111 (Plrunt I (p.runtl IGloIhI 11111 Ip.rc,ntl I'lB5 1'l'l2 3'l'l S7.D 1017 I'lB SU ISO 31 55.2 451 Bl IIU 'lU Ylo IIB5 110.2 !'lBII 2147 423 57.'lOBO 210 5B.7 155 33 SU 501 'lZ 112.2 'lU 3883 732 110.5 !'lB7 2257 444 5B.D 111B 217 58.B 15'34 53.4 5211 '7 1I1.'l 'lU 40110 7115 IIU .' !'lBB 2374 4117 58.0 114B 223 5B.B 1/04 35 53.5 547 103 IIU 'lU 4233 BOD 110.4 !'lB'l 24'7 4'1 58.1 1114 22B 58.B ll1B 311 53.3 Slt2 107 110.0 'lU 4401 B33 110.3 I'l'lD 21137 51'58.0 1200 233 58.B 171 3B 51.4 5711 110 5'l.B 'lU 45B4 BIl'l "0.2 1'l'l1 2713 534 5B.0 1225 23B 58.B 17'l 40 51.1 S'li 112 110.2 'lIl.~470B B'l3 110.2 1m 2m 5411 58.0 1255 Z44 58.7 lB7 41 52.1 1107 115 110.3 'lU 4B21 '14 110.2 1'l'l3 2B2o 555 58.0 12BB 250 58.B 1'l4 42 52.7 m 11'"0.1 'lU 4'lZ'l '33 110.3 1'l'l4 2BIl4 Slt4 58.a 1323 257 58.B 20Z 43 53.11 1142 122 W.l 31 'lU 5031 'l52 110.3 1m nD7 572 58.0 1361 2M 58.'210 44 54.5 1157 125 W.O 'lU 5135 '71 110.4 1'l'l1l m9 580 58.0 1405 273 58.B 220 45 55.B m 12B 5'l.9 'lU 5m 'l'l1 110.4 1'l'l7 (Z'l'l3 5B'l 58.0 1451 Z82 58.7 31 231 411 57.3 liB'131 5'l.B 'lU 53114 1013 110.5 mB 30311 5'lB 58.0 31 14'l'l 2'1 58.7 241 41 58.5 1011 135 59.B 'lU 54Bl 1035 110.5 t'l'l'l 3DBo W7 57.'154B 301 58.'252 4'l 58.7 7Z3 138 5'l.1 'lU 5602 1058 110.4 2000 3124 Ill'57.9 15'lB 311 58.7 2"2 50 5U 740 142 5U '7.0 5724 lOBS 110.2 11 Gol.n V.II,v El'ctric Altoci.tion lo.d for,ult b...d lin April 19B5 Pow.r R,quirll.ntl Study. 21 Coincid'ntt f.ctor i',ppl i'd to Pllk d...nd.only. 31 En,r,v .nd ,"k d'.nd.b,yond footnat.d Vllr Wlr ••xtrapal.t,d b...d on th,.nnu.1 growth r.t,tor th,pfludin,VI'r. ~-'-------1 _.-j --i SUSITNA POWER SALES HEGOT lATIONS Table 2 -SOUTHERN RAILBEL!UTILITIES'LOAD FORECAST,JUNE 1'185 Al'tLP CEA/llEA/HEA/SES SOUTH RAILBELT TOTAL---------------------_.-------------------------PEAK --..__.._-_...-_........._--_.._-_.....- LOAD LOAD COIN[IDENCE COIN.LOAD YEAR ENERGY PEAK FACTOR ENERGY PEAK FACTOR FACTOR 11 ENERGY PEAK FACTOR----------......._---_......---------------------...-------_.......... (G\lhl 1It1l1 (percentl (G\lhl 1It1l1 (percent I (percentl (GIJhI (1IloI1 (pmlntl 1'185 1017 1'18 58.&1""2 3""57.0 '110.1.300'1 577 5'1.10 1'181.1080 210 58.7 2147 423 57.'1 'I"'"3221 1.11 1.0.2 1'187 1118 211 58.8 2251 444 58.0 'I"'"3315 1.3'1 1.0.3 1'188 lU~223 58.8 2374 41.1 58.0 'I"'"3522 1.1.1 1.0.3 1'18'1 1t74 228 58.8 24'17 4'11 58.1 9U 31.71 1.'15 1.0.3 l'I'IO 1200 233 58.8 21.37 51'1 58.0 '1U 3837 121.1.0.3 1'19l 1225 238 58.8 2113 534 58.0 '1..1.3'138 741.1.0.3 1'1'12 1255 244 58.7 2772 541.58.0 '1U 4027 11.3 1.0.2 1""3 1288 250 58.8 2820 555 58.0 '1U U08 118 1.0.3 .' 1'1'I4 1323 257 58.8 281.4 51.4 58.0 '1U U81 1'13 1.0.3 1'1'15 131.1 21.4 58.'2'107 572 58.0 '1U 42108 8n8 1.0.3 1""1.1405 213 58.8 2'14'580 58;0 '1U 4354 824 1.0.3 1"'"1451 282 58.1 2'1'13 58'1 58.0 21 '1U 4444 8U 1.0.3 1""8 ,14'1'1 2'11 58.1 21 3031.5'18 58.0 '1U 4535 85'1 1.0.3 1"'1 1548 JOI 58.1 3080 1.01 5'L'1 '1U 4m 877 1.0.2 2000 15'18 311 58.1 3124 1.11.57.'1 '17.0 4722 8'1'1 5'1.'1 2001 11.21 31S 58.7 31 311.'1 1.25 51.'1 31 '17.0 47'10 '112 5'1.' 2002 1I.4S 320 58.7 3214 1.34 57.9 '17.0 485'1 '121.5'1.'1 2003 161.8 324 58.7 321.1 "3 57.'1 '17.0 4'12'1 '13'1 5'1.'1 2004 11.'12 329 58.7 33D8 m 57.''17.0 5000 '152 5'1.'1 200S 1717 334 58.7 3355 "2 57.'1 '17.0 5072 'I"5'1.'1 20llll 17U 33'1 58.7 3404 m 57.'1 '17.0 5145 '180 5'1.'1 2007 171.1.344 58.7 3453 1.81 57.''17.0 521'1 ""5'1.'1 2008 11'12 348 58.7 3502 m 57.'1 '7.0 52'14 1008 5'1.'1 200'1 1818 354 58.7 3553 701 57.9 '17 .0 5371 1023 5'1.'1 2010 1844 359 58.7 31.04 7ll 57.'1 '17.0 5448 1038 5'1.9 2011 1870 31.4 58.7 31.51.721 57.'1 '17.0 5521.1053 5'1.'1 2012 18'17 31.'58.1 370'1 732 57.'1 '17.0 51.01.101.8 5'1.'1 2013 1'125 374 58.7 371.2 742 57.'1 '17.0 51.81 IOB3 5'1.9 2014 1'152 3BO 58.7 3811.153 57.9 '17.0 571.9 10""5'1.'1 2015 1'181 385 58.7 387l 71.4 57.'1 '17.0 5852 1115 5'1.'1 2011.200'1 3'11 58.7 3'127 715 57.'1 '17.0 5'131.1131 5'1.'1 2017 2038 3'11.58.7 3983 781.57.'1 '11.0 1.021 1147 5'1.'1 2018 201.7 402 58.7 40U 7'17 57.'1 '17.0 1.108 111.3 5'1.'1 201'20'17 408 58.7 40""80'1 57.'1 '17.0 1.1'1.1180 59.'1 2020 2127 4U 58.7 USB 820 57.''17.0 1.2B5 1197 5'1.'1 II Coincidence lac tar il appl jed to Plak de.andl only.31 Enlrgy and peak delands tar the period 2001-2020 were IxtraPDlated based an thl average annual grDwth rate at 21 Enlrgy and peak de-ands beheen the loot noted Vlar and th,Power AuthDri tv',Relerence Case larecau lOr the 2000 wIre extrapolated based Dn the annual growth ralt periDd 2000-2010. IDr the IODtnated vear. SUSITNA POYER SALES NEGOTIATIONS Table 3 -NORTI£RN RAllBELT UTILITIES'LOAD FORECAST.JUNE 1985 FIlUS GIlEA II NORTH RAILBEL T TOTAL ------------------------.....-..--------.------......--PEAK --------------.....----------- LOAD LOAD COINCIDENCE COIN.LOAD YEAIl ENERGY PEAK FACTOR ENERGY PEAK FACTOR FACTOR 21 ENERGY PEAk:FACTOR -------------..._..--..-------------------_.........----..----.. (GloIhl ("",I (pertent I (GIoIhl I/tIIl (P.rnnt I (pertlntl lGloIhl IfNI Ipertent I 1985 150 31 55.2 451 81 63.6 9U 601 108 63.4 1986 155 33 5U 501 92 62.2 9U 6St,121 62.0 1987 IS9 34 5304 526 97 61.'l 9U 6lI5 127 61.8 1988 164 3S 53.5 541 103 6D.6 9U 711 133 60.9 1989 168 3io 53.3 Slo2 107 60.0 9U 730 138 60.3 1990 171 38 51.4 576 110 5U 9U 747 143 S'l.6 Inl 179 40 51.1 591 112 60.2 9U 770 147 59.9 In2 187 41 52.1 607 115 60.3 9U 7'l4 151 60.1 1993 I'l4 42 52.7 627 II'l 60.1 9U 821 ISlo 60.3 ," 1994 202 43 53.6 642 122 60.1 31 9U 844 159 60.4 1m 210 44 54.5 657 125 60.0 9U 867 163 60.6 1996 220 45 55.8 m 128 59.9 9U 893 167 60.9 1'1'7 231 46 57.3 689 131 59.8 9U 920 171 61.3 1'1'8 .. 241 47 58.5 706 135 5U 9U 'l47 m 61.5 19'1'252 "58.7 723 138 59.7 96.6 97S 181 61.5 2000 262 so 59.8 740 142 5'l.6 97.0 1002 186 61.5 2001 266 51 59.8 "7So 144 59.11 "97.0 1016 18'61.5 2002 270 51 59.8 761 146 5'l.6 97.0 1031 I'll 61.5 2003 273 52 5'l.8 m 148 5U 97.0 1046 I'l4 61.5 2004 277 53 S'l.8 783 150 5'l.6 97.0 1061 197 61.5 2005 281 54 59.8 7'lS 152 5U 97.0 1076 200 61.5 2006 285 54 59.8 806 154 5U 97.0 1092 203 61.5 2007 290 55 5'l.8 818 157 5'1.6 97.0 1107 205 61.5 2008 2'/4 Slo 5'l.8 82'1 159 5U 97.0 1123 208 61.5 2009 298 57 S'l.8 .841 161 5'1.6 97.0 1139 211 61.5 2010 302 58 59.8 854 163 5U 'l7 .0 1156 214 61.5 2011 307 59 5'l.8 866 166 SU 97.0 1172 218 61.5 2012 311 5'5'l.8 878 168 5U 97.0 1189 221 61.5 2013 316 60 5'l.8 891 171 5U \97.0 1206 224 61.5 2014 320 61 59.8 904 173 5U 97.0 1224 22l 61.5 2015 325 62 59.8 '117 176 5U 97.0 1241 230 61.5 2016 329 63 5U 930 178 59.11 97.0 1259 234 61.5 2017 334 64 5'l.8 'l43 181 5U 97.0 1277 237 61.5 2018 339 65 5'l.8 957 183 SU 97.0 12'6 240 61.5 201'344 66 5'l.8 '171 186 5U 97.0 1315 244 61.5 2020 349 67 5'l.8 985 189 5U 97.0 1333 Z47 61.5 II Golden Valier Elettr it Association load laretast 21 Cointidente lattar is applied to peak de-ands anlr. based an Apri I 1985 Power R.quirelrnts Studr. "Energr and peak delands lor the per iad Zool-Zo2o were 31 Energr and peak delands between the loatnated rear and eKtrapolated bned an the average annual growth rate 01 Zooo wert extrapolated based on the annual grOwth rat.tne Power AuthOr i tr's Reterente Case foretast tar the tor the lootnoted rear.per iad Zooo-ZOIo. --=--=----=-'0!--J -I ~~ SUSITNA POWER SALES NEGOTIATIONS lIbl.4 -TOTAL RAILBELT UTILITIES'LOAD FORECAST I JIJt£1985 JUNE 1985 SOUTHERN RAILBELT NORTHERN RAILBELT RAILBELT TOTAL ...-.....--------.---_...._-...--.............--_..._------_......_-------------------...---_..._----- LOAD LOAD COIN.LOAD YEAR ENERGY PEAK FACTOR ENERGY PEAK FACTOR ENERGY PEAK FACTOR ---If ------------......--...........-------------------_...-_..._-- (GYhl (1111 (p.runt)(GIlhI .(1111 (pm.ntl (G\lhl (1111 (p.runt) 1985 3DD9 577 5U t.Ol lD8 63,4 361D 68S 6D.2 1986 3227 611 60.2 656 121 62.D 3683 732 6D.5 1987 3375 639 6D.3 685 127 61.8 4D6D 765 60,6 1988 3522 667 loD.3 711 133 6D.9 4233 8DD 60,4 1989 3671 695 6D.3 73D 138 6D.3 44Dl 833 6l1.3 I'I'lD 3837 m 6D.3 747 143 59,6 4584 869 6D.2 1991 3938 746 60,]71D 147 59.9 4708 893 6D.2 " 1992 4D27 763 60.2 794 151 6D.l 4821 914 6D.2 1993 41D8 778 6D.3 821 156 60.3 4929 933 6D.3 1994 4187 793 100.3 844 159 60,4 S031 952 66.3 1995 4268 8D8 100.3 867 163 t.O.6 5135 'l7I 60,4 I.,.,',4354 824 60.3 893 167 6D.9 5241 991 60,4 1.,.,1 4444 841 t.O.3 92D 171 61.3 5364 lDI3 60.5 1998 4535 859 6D.3 'l47 176 61.5 5481 ID35 6D.5 1m 4621 871 t.O.2 975 181 61.5 5602 1058 60,4 2DDD 4m 8ft 59.9 1002 186 61.5 5724 lD85 6D.2 2DDI 47'lO 912 59.9 lD16 189 61.5 5806 IIDI t.O.2 2002 4859 926 59.9 1031 191 61.5 5890 1117 6D.2 2DD3 4929 939 59.9 lD46 194 61.5 5975 1133 6D.2 2D04 snOD 952 59.9 lD61 191 61.5 6D61 1149 60.2 2D05 5D12 '"59.9 lD76 2DD 61.5 6148 1166 6D.2 20D6 5145 9BO 59.9 lD92 203 61.5 6237 1183 6D.2 2D07 5219 .,.,4 59.9 llD7 205 61.5 6326 12DD 6D.2 2D08 5294 1008 59.9 1123 208 61.5 6418 1211 60.2 2009 5371 1023 59.9 1139 2lI 61.5 6510 1234 100.2 2010 5448 1038 59.9 1156 214 61.5 66D4 1252 60.2 2011 .5526 1053 59.9 1112 218 61.5 6699 1210 60.2 2012 5606 1068 59.9 1189 221 61.5 6795 1288 60.2 2013 5681 1083 59.9 1206 224 61.5 6893 1301 60.2 2DI4 5769 ID.,.,59.9 1224 227 61.5 6992 1326 60.2 2015 5B52 1115 59.9 1241 230 61.5 7093 1345 60.2 2016 5936 1131 59.9 1259 234 61.5 7195 1364 60.2 2D17 6021 1147 59.9 1277 231 61.5 1299 1384 60.2 2018 6108 1163 59.9 1296 24D 61.5 7404 14D4 60.2 2019 6196 1180 59.9 1315 244 61.5 1511 1424 60.2 202D 6285 lI'l7 59.9 1333 247 61.5 1619 1445 60.2 1 1 1 T T i UTILITY LOAD FORECAST - NOVEMBER 19'84 I '--l ,-"--I I I I 0 I • I lJ Till (V -" "----------j -------l -------l I I 1---J ,"'•too ()(]()1-0 r C~C:(J S l.C...()rYl r-)(]r is 0 r--I SUSITNA POW[r~SAl ES NLGOliATIONS 11 -.------.-------------.--..-.------..-..-.--_--..__.-.-.-- -..---'0"-------.----.-..--_••------.•_..--.. .' -------.---.....---.--------..-.~----I 6 ->-~-_._.-_. 7 -1------._+-.--_.._-_.1--.__._-_..--.....-----:--~+ 5 -t--------I ~ 9 ---..--.-------.-.--.--------.--,--..---.--.---..----.._..---------·I ·_-.----.- 8 --&-~.---,-....-------......------.,_._--.--_._.-"-'--'- 10 _6--.__-'-"'--'---------•..--•.------- -_.__.---,-_.•1--------1..-------.~----.-,.----_.--_._.-,..------. ,........., ..c ~ (9 ......J Z,.......... 0(1)--0t-c<to0::(1) W::J ZoWe(9~ '---">-<., 0:: Ld Z W ~3 --;---r-,,".-,.--r-,'r--r-.-.,...-~r·-'f'-'"'-1'._-'-T-·-'''-''''·I I ,--..-.--.,-_..,....,..-.--.--.,.-,--, 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 [J JUNE 85 YEAR I·NOV.84 '------lI ~-~---=--------J _..~ T,1l..BLE 5 SUSITNA POWER SALES NEGOTIATIONS RAILBELT UTILITt LOAD FORECAST HJVEMBER 1984 cEAlI !HLP FMUS GVEA RAIL BELT TOTAL Load Load Load Load Load Year Energy Peak Factor Energy Peak Factor Energy Peak Factor Energy Peak Factor Energy Peak Fact()r--(GWh)(MW)(%)(GWh)(HW)(%)(GWh)(MW)(%)(GWh)(HW)(%)(GWh)(HW)(%) 1985 1992 399 57.0 1017 198 58.6 150 31 55.2 447 89 57.3 3606 717 57.4 1986 2147 423 57.9 1080 210 58.7 155 33 53.6 482 96 57.3 3864 762 57.9 1987 2257 444 58.0 1118 217 58.8 159 34 53.4 520 103 57.6 4054 798 58.0 1988 2374 467 58.0 1148 223 58.8 164 35 53.5 561 111 57.7 4247 836 58.0 1989 2497 491 58.1 1174 228 58.8 168 36 53.3 605 119 58.0 4444 874 58.0 1990 2637 519 58.0 1200 233 58.8 171 38 51.4 653 128 58.2 4661 918 58.0 1991 2713 534 58.0 1225 238 58.8 179 40 51.1 706 136 59.3 4823 948 58.1 1992 2772 546 58.0 1255 244 58.7 187 41 52.1 765 145 60.2 4979 976 58.2 1993 2820 555 58.0 1288 250 58.8 194 42 52.7 827 154 61.3 5129 1001 58.5 1994 2864 564 58.0 1323 .257 58.8 202 43 53.6 895 164 62.3 5284 1028 58.7 " 1995 2907 572 58.0 1361 264 58.9 210 44 54.5 967 174 63.4 5445 1054 59.0 1996 2949 580 58.0 1405 273 58.8 220 45 55.8 1045 185 64.5 5619 1083 59.2 1997 2993 589 58.0 14511/28211 58.7 231 .46 57.3 1130 197 65.5 5805 1114 59~5 1998 303611 59s!1 58.0 1498 291 58.8 241 47 58.5 1222 209 66.7 591\7 1145 59.8 1999 3080 607 57.9 1548 301 58.7 252 49 58.7 1322 223 67.7 6202 1180 60.0 2000 3124 616 57.9 1598 311 58.7 262 50 59.8 1432 237 69.0 6416 1214 60.3 , !J Net generation at plant ,.includes CEA retail sales and sales for re~a1e to HEA,MEA,and SESe y Energy and peak beyond the footnoted year were extrapolated at the annual growth rate for the preceding year. " Table 6 -CO"PARlSDN OF UTILITY LOAD FORECASTS,NOV.1984 AND JUNE 1985 JUNE 1985 NOV.1984 RAILBELT TOTAL RAILBELT TOTAL ------------------------------------------------------ COIN.LOAD COIN.LOAD YEAR ENERBY PEAK FACT DR ENERSY PEAK FACTOR------------.-------- (6I1h)olin (percent)iSllhl (till)(percent) 1985 3610 6B5 60.2 3606 717 57.4 1986 3883 732 60.5 3864 762 57.9 1987 4060 765 60.6 4054 798 58.0 1988 4233 800 60.4 4247 836 5B.0 1989 4401 833 60.3 4444 874 58.0~.1990 4584 869 60.2 4661 918 5B.0 1991 470B 893 60.2 4823 948 5B.l 1992 4821 914 60.2 4949 976 57.9 1993 4929 933 60.3 5129 1001 SB.5.1994 5031 952 60.3 5284 1028 58.7 1995 5US 971 60.4 5445 1054 59.0 1996 5247 991 60.4 5619 1083 59.2 1997 5364 1013 60.5 5805 1114 59.5 1998 5481 1035 60.5 5997 1145 59.B 1999 5602 1058 60.4 6202 1180 60.0 2000 5724 10B5 60.2 6416 1214 60.3 2001 5806 1101 60.2 6571 1243 60.3 2002 5890 1117 60.2 6726 12B7 59.7 n'2003 5975 1133 60.2 &982 1325 59.3 2004 6061 1149 60.2 7039 1346 59.7 2005 614B 1166 60.2 7194 1375 59.7 2006 6237 1183 60.2 7411 1416 59.7 2007 6326 1200 60.2 7627 1456 59.8 2008 641B 1217 60.2 7843 1498 59.8 2009 6510 1234 60.2 8060 1540 59.7 2010 6604 1252 60.2 8276 15BO 59.8 2011 6699 1270 60.2 8489 1620 59.8 2012 6795 1288 60.2 8708 1662 59.8 2013 6893 1307 60.2 8933 1704 59.8 2014 6992 1326 60.2 9164 1748 59.8 2015 7093 1345 60.2 9400 1793 59.8 2016 7195 1364 60.2 9643 1839 59.9 2017 7299 13B4 60.2 9891 1886 59.9 201B 7404 1404 60.2 10147 1934 59.9 2019 7511 1424 60.2 10408 1984 59.9 2020 7619 1445 60.2 10677 2034 59.9 1 --....--........~,---_._...,_f4i - J 1 SUSliNA POWER SALES .1"''''"""&T II'U.h·...NtbUI 1/11 IVIl::J -)1\'i~--I 1 Table 7-ANCHORAGE MUNICIPAL LIGHT &POWER EXISTING PLANT DATA,JUNE l~BS --J I I SUSITNA POWER SALES NEGOTIATIONS i Table 8 -CHUGACH ELECTRIC ASSOCIATION EXISTING PLANT DATA,JUNE 1985 OPERATION PERIOD UNiT CAPACITY HEAT O&M COSTS OUTAGE RATES --~---------------------------------RATE -------------------------------- UNiT ONLINE RETIRE WINTER SUMMER ~MAX FIXED VARIABLE PLANNED FORCED NAME DATE DATE RATING RATING CAPACITY O&M O&M OUTAGE OUTAGE ---------------------------~----------------------------------------------- (MW).(MW)(BTU/KWh)(S/kW/yr)(S/MWh)(X time)(X ti.e) BEL Cnll 1968 .1996 16.1 13.4 15314 12.27 1.29 10.3 •6.0 BEL CT'2 1968 1996 16.1 13.4 15314 12.27 1.29 9.0 •6.0 BEL CT'3 1972 1996 49.5 36.2 11344 12.27 1.29 12.8 •6.0 BEL CTl5 1972 1996 67.3 49.3 12963 12.27 1.29 12.8 •6.0 BEL CC 68 1976 2006 100.6 87.4 9391 12.27 1.29 11.5 •8.0 BEL CC 78 1976 2006 100.6 87.4 9391 12.27 1.29 11.5 •8.0 BERNCnl2 1971 1991 18.4 14.8 15957 11.53 1.54 9.0 •6.0 BERNCT.3 1978 1998 27.2 22.2 15023 11.53 1.54 10.3 •6.0 BERNCT.4 1978 1998 27.2 22.2 15023 11.53 1.54 12.8 •6.0 INT CT.l 1965 1996 14.3 12.3 19371 20.44 13.11 7.7.6.0 ,"INT CTI2 1965 1996 14.3 12.3 19371 20.44 13.11 7.7 •6.0 INT CT.3 1965 1996 19.9 16.5 16627 20.44 13.11 15.4 *6.0 SELDlC#l 1952 1990 0.3 0.3 14998 2.75 37.56 4.0 •5.0 saOlC'2 1964 1994 0.6 0.6 12006 2.75 37.56 4.0 *5.0 SELDIClI3 1970 2000 0.6 0.6 12006 2.75 37.56 4.0 •5.0 SELDICI4 .1982 2012 0.6 0.6 12006 2.75 37.56 4.0 •5.0 SES IC'1 1965 1990 1.5 1.5 15000 0.61 5.97 1.0 *5.0 SES IC.2 1965 1990 1.5 1.5 15000 0.61 5.97 1.0 •s.n SES IC'3 1965 1995 2.5 2.5 15000 0.61 5.97 1.0 •5.0 EKLUTNA 1955 ----14.0 -------------19.00 COOPER 1961 ----15.0 -------------7.40 •Note:Planned outage rate shown is an equivalent value based en maintenance schedule prDvided by CEA. j ,-------J 11 ----------'J ~~~l <••• -'--"------1-------...-------...•j -,~ I SUSITNA POWER SALES NEGOTIATIONS I Table 9 -FAIRBANKS MUNICIPAL UTILITY SYSTEM EXISTING PLANT DATA,JUNE 1985 OPERATION PERIOD UNIT CAPACITY HEAT O&M COSTS OUTAGE RATES ------------------------------------RATE ------------------------------.- UNIT ONLINE RETIRE WINTER SUMMER a MAX FIXED VARIABLE PLANNED FORCED NAME DATE DATE RATING RATING CAPACITY O&M O&M OUTAGE OUTAGE -------------------------~------------------------------------------------- (I1W)(MW)(BTU/KWh)(S/k~/yr)(S/MWh)(1 tile)(l tile) CHENSTIl 1954 1986 5.1 5.1 15968 51.51 1.23 6.0 6.0 CHENSTl2 1952 1986 2.0 2.0 18049 51.51 1.23 6.0 6.0 CHENSTl3 1952 1986 1.5 1.S 18091 51.51 1.23 6.0 6.0 CHENCTl4 1963 1985 6.1 4.1 12894 1.02 3.63 3.0 8.0 CHENSTIS 1910 1981 20.0 20.0 14236 14.20 0.64 6.0 6.0 CHENCTl6 1916 2006 26.1 21.0 12733 0.43 0.06 3.0 8.0 FMUSICII 1961 1992 2.e 2.B 12128 0.88 23.02 2.0 5.0 FI1USIC1I2 1968 1992 2.6 2.6 12128 0.66 23.02 2.0 5.0 FMUSIC1I3 1969 1992 2.8 2.6 12126 O.BB 23.02 2.0 5.0 ; ------'I 11--------y -'----i SUSITNA POWER SALES NEGOTIATIONS Table 10 -GOLDEN VALLE¥ELECTRIC ASSOCIATION EXISTING PLANT DATA,JUNE 1985 OPERATION PERIOD UNIT CAPACIT¥HEAT O&M COSTS OUTAGE RATES ----------------------------.._-----RATE -----------.-------------------- UNIT ONLINE RETIRE UINTER SUMMER a "AX FIXED VARIABLE PLANNED FORCED NAME DATE DATE RATING RATING CAPACITY O&M O&M OUTAGE OUTAGE ---------------.---------------- -------- -------- ----------------..---------- ("U)(MU)(BTU/KUh)(S/kU/yr)(S/MWh)(l tile)(l time) HEALSHIl 19b7 2002 25.0 25.0 12750 b1.72 4.32 7.0 3.0 HEALlC1I2 19b7 1997 2.b 2.b 11210 O.bl 5.97 20.0 1.0 NOPOCTlIl 197b 200b b4.3 52.8 10221 8.84 0.59 15.0 1.0 NOPOCT1I2 1977 2007 b4.3 52.8 10221 8.84 0.59 15.0 1.0 ZEN CTll 1971 2001 18.0 15.7 14Bb9 8.B4 0.59 15.0 1.0 ZEN CTII2 1972 2002 lB.O 15.7 14Bb9 8.84 0.59 15.0 1.0 OSL IClIl 19b1 1991 1.9 1.9 11209 O.bl 5.97 20.0 1.0 DSL (C1I2 19b1 1991 1.9 1.9 11209 0.61 5.97 20.0 1.0 DSL ICII3 19b4 1991 1.9 1.9 11209 0.61 5.97 20.0 1.0 DSL lOS 1970 2000 2.b 2.b 11210 O.bl 5.97 20.0 1.0.-DSL lCllb 1970 2000 2.6 2.b 11210 O.bl 5.97 20.0 1.0 UAF 1CII7 1970 199b 1.9 1.9 11209 0.61 5.97 20.0 1.0 UAF lCll8 1970 199b 1.9 1.9 11209 0.61 5.97 20.0 1.0 ------l ---4 ---J ---j SUSITNA POWER SALES NEGOTIATIONS lible 11 -UTILITY soon-TER"ADDITIONS 1985-1995 PLANT DATA AND COSTS,JUNE 1985 CAPITAL COST OPERATION PERIOD 11 UN IT CAPAC ITY HEAT 0'"COSTS OUTAGE RATES (S 19851-----..--------_.........._---..------------RATE -----......----------------_..._--......----------_.....----- UNIT ONLINE RETIRE IlINTER S1I1IER a ~x FIXED VARIABLE PLANNED FORCED UNIT TOTAL NA~C~ANY DATE DATE RATING RATING CAPACITY 0'"0'"OUTAGE OUTAGE COST COST----------_.--...-------------------------_......_----_......_---_....-...------- 11111I 1",,1 IBTU/KIlh I ISHU/vr I IS/l1Uhl (I ti.el (I ti.el (S/klll IS.i 1\ionl .' GTK cm AEGLT 198~2010 45.0 38.0 12785 8.43 0.59 9.0 •6.0 360 16.2 GTk (112 AEGLT 1988 2013 45.0 38.0 12785 8.43 0.59 5.8 •6.D 360 16.2 SES ICl4 SES 1986 2006 2.5 2.5 15000 0.61 5.97 1.0 5.0 500 1.3 SES ICIS SES 1986 2006 2.5 2.5 lsaDo 0.61 5.97 1.0 5.0 500 1.3 SES 1m SES 1990 2010 2.5 2.5 15000 0.61 5.97 1.0 5.0 500 1.3 CHENSTUS FIllS 1987 2002 23.0 23.0 13268 61.72 4,32 U 6.0 21 5.2 CHENST17 FItUS 1994 2024 25.0 25.0 13268 61.72 4,32 U 6.0 2/15.6 CEA CT CEA 1988 2013 87.0 87.0 12000 8.43 0.59 3.8 •6.0 360 31.3 MPCTI9 ~P 1991 2016 87.0 87.0 12000 12.7'1 0.92 12.8 •2.0 310 27.0 •Nole l Planned Oullg.rll.shOMn is In .quival.nt vllu.bn.d on ••int.nuu Ich.dul.provided bv CEA. 11 Unit is online in Janulrv 01 Itlted V.lr. 21 FItUS G.ner,tion expenditure'1986 (oal Hindi ing -7.8 Slill ion 1987 (t(NSTUS -5.2 Sli Ilion 1989 Nn Boil.r -20.9 Stillion 1994 (HENST17 -15.6 S.i II ion ~4 3USITNA POYER SALES NEGOTJATION5 DEC 1'184 CAPACITY AI'lP 345.~ CEA 47'1.1 F!'lUS 6'.2 GVEA 2011.9 S.TOTAL 825.0 N.TOTAL 216.1 ---I -=------J --=---=-t ~ T,bl.12 -SOUTH RAILBELT SCHEDULE OF CAPACITY ADDITIONS AND RETIREItENTS,J~1'185 C,p,titr in "'9'wUts COIlPANY NO.I ANCH.I\uP CMANY NO.2 CIUiACH ELEC •SOUTH RAILBELT TOTALS .: YEAR !'f85 !'f86 !'f87 !'f88 1~8~ 1'1'10 !'f'11 !'f'12 !'f'13 '1'1'14 1'1'1S 1'1'16 !OTAL COAl COIl8.GAS RETlRE-CAPAC ITY STEM CYCLE CT BRADLEY I1ENTS ON-LINE 345.' 345.' 345.' 345.' 345.' 22.0 32.4 335.5 81.0 1'.'40U 33.8 368.8 368.8 3£8.8 11.0 319.8 319.8 TOTAL COAL COIIB.GAS DIESEL RETlRE-CAPACITY STEM CYCLE CT IC BRADLEY I£NTS ON--LINE 45.0 524.1 5.0 52'1.1 52'1.1 132.0 661.1 "1.1 2.5 51.0 3.3 711.3 18.4 1092., 6'f2., 6'f2., 0.10 1092.3 25.5 2.5 115.3 m.5 517.8 TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL RETlRE-CAPACITY ADDITIONS IlENTS OtHINE 45.0 810.0 5.0 815.0 815.0 132.0 1001.0 1001.0 75.5 35.7 104U 87.0 38.3 10'15.5 33.8 1061.7 1061.7 D.6 1061.1 310.5 2.5 10'5.1 1'17.5 8'7.6 !'!iru-Eb.Sto Susitn.Joint lI.ntur ••Jun.1'185 -l ~--------=--l ~-------J -------i SUSITNA POYER SALES NEGO TI ATI ONS ~ible 13 •NORTH RAILBELT SCHEDULE Of CAPACITY ADOITIONS AND RETIREMENTS.JUNE 1985 CiPiti h in Megiwilu YEAR COI1PANY NO.3 -fPlUS TOTAL COAL COII8.OIL RETlRE-CAPACITY STEAM CYCLE n BRADLEY IlENTS lIN-LINE COIlPANY SO.4·GVEA TOTAL COAL COMB.GAS RETIRE-CAPACITY STEAM CYCLE CT 8RADLEY MENTS ON-LINE NORTH RAILBELT TOTALS TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL RETIRE -CAPACITY ADDITIONS IENTS ON-LINE I ~ 1985 19& 1987 1988 "89 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1991. 3.0 25.0 4.0 2.0 U 1.3.1 U 54.5 57.5 57.5 57.5 1.1.5 1.1.5 1.\.5 '\.5 81..5 88.5 88.5 13.0 1..5 211609 20609 211609 201..9 201..9 219.9 5.7 214.2 214.2 214.2 214.2 220.7 270.7 U 270.0 B.I.21.\.4 3.11 21.4,4 21.4,4 21.4,4 17.11 281 .~ 5.7 215.7 275.7 275.7 2S.D 3011.7 8.5 309.2 309.2 Hirri-Ebncc S~I i tna Je i nl Venlure I June 1965 Table i4 -TOTAL RAiLBELT SCHEDULE OF CAPACITY ADDITIONS AND RETIREMENTS,JUNE 1985 Capacity in Megawatts I I I ..~--------. SUSITNA POWER SALES NEGOTIATIONS ---1 ---l ---------i -----t -=-----.3• TOTAL RAILBELT -----~.------------------~---------------------------------------------.--------- TOTAL TOTAL COAL COMB.GAS OIL DIESEL TOTAL RETlRE-CAPACITY YEAR STEAM CYCLE CT CT IC BRADLEY ADDITIONS MENTS ON-LINE------------.-.--------------.-.~---------------------_.----------......-------- 1985 45.0 45.0 6.1 1140.0 1986 5.0 5.0 8.6 1136.4 1987 3.0 3.0 1139.4 198B 132.0 132.0 1271.4 1989 1271.4 1990 2.5 90.0 92.5 35.7 1328.2 1991 87.0 87.0 44.0 1371.2 1992 33.8 1337.4 1993 1337.4 1994 25.0 25.0 0.6 1361.8 "1995 45.0 45.0 2.5 1404.3 1996 197.5 1206.8 ~ t-<en t%Jen en ~til H 1-3 H ~ H 1-3 t-< H Z t1 t%J X 1-3o I'd til III ~It> ~ ~till ::J ro .1III::s 1-'00 "<:1-'- tJ:l -Ill l1100 It> 14 ttj ~r---~-T~l-~ t-'1-'-0 I "d 0 I 0 I t-Plrt(Ii((8::s P'1-'-() t+l""l 0(.')G)t:rIiUj~l~c i;:1-'"'""-j --t1 b-ro ~-I I 00 HI ::s I-'-PI IX-I-'PI III t-' t!J III III :;1 a R'J "t/-m G11-'j-'-.CD "'<;rt X rt ()0 I'd Ii Ill"<:~rt rt 00 1-'- "0 1-'-It>::s Ii ()1-'-00 00 ~"<:It>1-'-<: 0 0 a.1-'-0 ()-1-'-::s 11 00 1-'- 11 ::s ()PI It>00 00 rt rt It>I-'"<: - I-'NO.DESCRIPTION01.0 co ......0'1 VI ot>.W N I-'0 X X X X X X X X X x 1 1999 Gas Peak x 2 1996 Gas Peak X X X X X X X X X 3 Ramped Gas Price X X 4 CEA-Enstar Gas Price X X X X X X X X x 5 APA Coal Price X x 6 Nenana 0% ._--~ X x 7 Beluga Low Coal Price..___~,_~...~..~".....____...__u ••___.. X 9 Matanuska------I---.. --X.9 No Coal Export ~----_......._..,--~-~- x x x x x x x x x 10 11.2%Financing(Thermal only) -....---x 11 10%Financing (Both) -~------_. x 12 5%Inflation---..~._.....,~.A~_._.~_. x 13 Keetna.___..___..._......~..~....,......··,."............_.__~w••_••____,_._,....._w ___ X !><:X X X X X X X X x 14 Bradley Lake 3rd Unit---.-------~------_.._~._. x 15 .--!'.hase I ~.!?-J:.X__..__.___.-'-...----~.- ,16 Diamond Coalx .~"-'---' -j ==-1 r;r~~~1~1~lfl~I~I~ 1 I "'1'" I r, I INDEX TO SENSITIVITY ANALYSES SUSITNA HEP POWER SALES NEGOTIATIONS MAPS r-DDEL SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS PARAMETERS 1.1999 Gas Peak case.Cut-off date of 1999 for bringing new base load 'natural gas fired generation on-line. 2.1996 Gas Peak Case.Cut-off date of 1996 for bringin;}new base load 'natural gas fired generation on-line. 3.,Ramped Gas Price Case.For natural gas pricing,use the CEA-Enstar prices 1985 thru 1989.Then ranp the CEA-Enstar price upward, straight-line 1990 thru 1999 to match Shennan Clark prices in 1999. 4.CEA-Enstar Gas Price case.For natural gas pricing,use CEA-Enstar 'through entire analysis period. 5.APA Coal Price Case.For all coal pricing,use the APA coal prices. 6.Nenana 0%Case.For Nenana coal,use APA 1985 price and 0%real price increase. 7.,Beluga Low Coal Price Case.For Beluga Coal,use the Diamond Coal Beluga price of $1.05/mm BTU in 1985 with 1.1%annual real price increase. 8.~No Coal Export Case.For coal pricing at Beluga,use the price which results if there is no coal export facility. 9.Matanuska Case.For construction of coal fired plants,assume the Matanuska Power Project unit is installed in 1992,the two Nenana units next,and units at Beluga last. 10.11.2%Financing Case.Use 11.2%cost of capital with 6.31%underlying 'inflation. 11.10%Financing Case.Use 10%cost of capital with 6.31%underlying inflation. 12.5%Inflation case.Use 5%underlying inflation with 8.5%cost of capital. 13.Keetna Case.Includes the Keetna project in the thennal case. 14.Bradley Lake 3m Unit Case.Assume installation of a third unit at 'Bradley Lake in 1995. 1 1 1 I INDEX TO SENSITIVITY ANALYSES 15.Phase I Only Case.Assume the Susitna Project is staged and that only Phase I is ever completed. 16.Diamond Coal Case.Use the Diamond Coal capital and O&M cost for one Beluga unit installed in 1992. ECONOMIC/FINANCE ASSUMPTIONS 1 General 1 Case Cost of MOneyl/Inflation Case Description Susitna Thennal Rate %%% 0-4, 7-10 10.0 11.2 6.31 5 Low Finance 10.0 10.0 6.31 6 Low Inflation 8.5 9.7 5.00 1/These rates to be used to canpute C\.U'l1I1IUlative present worth of systan costs 1 1 1 .i ""'"i I f""f "" June 12,1985 NOTES TO RAILBELT COST OF POWER TABLES 1.Includes estimated annual debt service and estimated credits for reinvest- ment earnings on reserve funds. 2.Estimated debt service associated with 11 ut ili ty own n generation and trans- misl;ion plant existing debt. Estima ted debt service on new nutili ty specified11 generation additions assuming 100%debt financing.Interest rates assumed to be 11.75%for cooperatives and 10%for municipalities (10.25%and 8.5%,respectively,-for Case 6). Estimated debt service on new rail belt large thermal additions.Assumes 100%debt financing at 11.225%(10%for Case 5 and 9.7%for Case 6)and repayment over 30 years for coal plants and 25 years for combustion tur- bines.Includes credit for reinvestment earnings on reserve funds at 11% per year (9.5%for Case 6).Also includes net debt service on railbelt transmission additions which are assumed to be financed at 11.225%(10%for Case 5 and 9.7%for Case 6)and repaid over 35 years. 3. '1 I 4. 1 5.Estimated annual debt service on the Bradley Lake Project assuming 10% .interest rate and~$218,000,000 State equity contribution. '1 I I 6.Estimated debt service on the Susitna Project assuming 10%interest rate (8.5%for Case 6). 7.Railbelt fuel costs as estimated by Harza-Ebasco. 8.Total Railbelt operations and maintenance expense. 9.Based on anmal expense of 1%of capital costs on large coal plants and 0.3%on Susitna.Includes estimates provided by the Authority for Bradley Lake. 10.Summation of all previous columns. 11.Estimated Railbelt energy requirements reduced by 3%for transmission losses. T J 1',~ SUSITNA POWER SALES NEGOTIATIONS ---J =----J Table IS -UTILITY LONG-TERM ADDITIONS 1995-2020 PLANT DATA AND COST5!JUNE 1985 CAP ITAL COST UNIT CAPACITY HEAT OlM COSTS OUTAGE RATES (S 1965) -~------~-----_._-RATE -------------~------------------~--------------- UNIT WINTER SUMMER a MAX FIXED VARIABLE PLANNED FORCED UNIT TOTAL NAME COMPANY RATING RATING CAPACITY OlM OlM OUTAGE OUTAGE COST COST --------..-...---.....~--------------------------------------------------- (MI.J)(MI.J)(BTU/KWh)(S/kl.Jlyr)(S/Ml.Jh)(1.time)(X time)(S/kl.J)(Smillion) NENASTIlI APA 200.0 200.0 10300 61.72 4.32 6.0 5.7 2726 545.6 BEL ST#1 APA 200.0 200.0 10300 61.72 4.32 6.0 5.7 2564 512.B MAT COAL APA 153.0 153.0 10300 51.00 ---.6.0 5.7 2bBo 410.0 OIA COAL APA 141.0 141.0 10400 92.20 4.55 6.0 5.7 2270 320.0 BEL CC APA 229.0 192.0 9200 13.39 0.67 7.0 6.0 659 150.9 NG CTII APA 67.0 73.0 12000 6.43 0.59 3.2 6.0 392 34.1 AM CC610 II AMLP 114.5 96.0 9200 12.79 0.92 9.0 I 2.0 AM CC910 11 AMLP 114.5 96.0 9200 12.79 0.92 9.0 I 2.0 56B 26.4 TRANSMISSION PHASE I APA ------...-------------------------------244.0 PHASE II APA ...."""------------------------------------130.0 .' I Nate:Planned outage rate shawn is an equivalent value based an maintenance schedule provided by CEA. 11 Sensitivity Case 2 -law gas and low coal,AMLPCTIIB and AMLPCTII9 are converted to cOlbined cycle operation in 1994. ~=---,_....~~--1 Tible 16 -HYDROELECTRIC DATA PROJECT KEETNA BRADlEY II STAGE I STAGE II STAGE 1I ( 1100 "M)190 "M)------------~------------------------------------------ Devil Mitinl Devil IIdlnl IIll1nl Clnyon Toll I Riise Cinyon Totil Avenge Energy (Glib) ------------ Jln 14 31 252 232 300 532 415 381 796 Feb 12 28 154 172 23B 410 317 297 614"u 13 2B 157 166 249 415 317 304 62J "Apr 12 23 98 130 213 343 257 25B 515 "IY 17 26 223 184 306 490 222 275 497 Jun 80 27 245 U8 296 434 163 274 437 Jul B4 30 249 172 271 443 189 266 455 Aug 84 32 259 206 252 458 214 266 480 Sep 55 28 288 224 258 482 289 241 530 oct 26 31 146 174 223 397 326 278 604 Nov 15 31 167 201 231 432 348 306 654 Dec 16 32 227 130 278 408 396 357 753 Avenge Annuli 428 347 2465 2129 3115 5244 3453 3503 6956 Construction Cost 1$lillion J985) 1029 302 2828 1642 1410 II In the sensitivity inllysis i third 45 "M unit is idded it the Brldley Like Proiect in 1995. Estillted cost is $20 lillion 1985. -------.-------'1 .'-=j ==--t Z :3:.-l-----r-~~~tU t'"t'"'U~t'"b t'"tv t;J:l (\)0 ::t PI 0 o .....1-'-0 tU 0 -PI (\)PI rt ~~Plrt~Ii~~t-3 VlUl PI ::s rt ()Ul III ::s ::T 1-'-()(\).....Ul tU C/l :1 0 (\):1 H I'!j rt ()0 G)(j)I'!j 8 I<:1-'-PI ~(\)III PI P l:::l 1-'-0 0 (\)PI III Q~Ulrt Ii ::s....H Ul HI ::s I-'-PI Ul Ul Gl 1-'-1-'-III PI Ul ~.....III PI .....I PI III Ul <:El .....1-'- ttj PI III :1,a ;R'>'U en G).....1-'-CD I<:rt X rt o O'U Ii Slll<:::Qrt rt Ul 1-'- to 1-'-(\)::s Ii ()1-'-Ulen PI<:CD 1-'-<: 0 0 P.1-'-0 0 -1-'-:1 Ii Ul 1-'- Ii l:::l 0 III (\)I Ul Ul rt rt CD .....I<: -_..__.~_.-_...~--_.. .'NO.1 DESCRIPTION.... ollDlcol-...J O'l ....*-"-t-:'-~""*,""I "~I ~I ~I ~r ~I ~1-;--..-t--r-1-~.~-- _I---"•1----!1999 Gas Peak •.......~.L-!~96 _~i:ls _.~~~k ..I 3 Ramped Gas Price ..---I -~-I ~~4 CEA-Enstar Gas Price ~GD-~-~J.~I ~~---I-"--.---.~_~-'.'~~:..~.~~_===f.~~.~~~~~-'~?'j_~~~i~~·i=~~:~_~~_~~=~__ .I ~~6 Nenana 0%I-I I r -r----.--------1------.-..-..--'--"'.-.._---.--..- ---..----~"-.---.-..-.-.-.---.-----!-!-~~7 Beluga Low Coal Price ~~l:tt:~--;----~~,,~-=~~~-~~~~~~~;}I~~1!~~~i;1:rt~~~i~~~~~-= t'---.---·-l·:··-t.~+··_·.-.-.-.-.------~~--...-....=.-~-=..~:~."ii~__'_.·.·:5%··.~I.~.~~~~~i.~~.~::-::.··--:.··=-:..._; ~:!13 Keetna1----·I---·i-···-'-'-"-'--_-..---.-..-.--.._--......,.."""-- 1::=~=-I-~T-"i-~_t=::==_~-~~-~-~---~--i :-::::~ei~:i;3rd U'li ~- I +-+~+-_.--_.--.,,_.m__.---..........".---.-..--I L~_~Iii >:16 Diamond Coal___"'~.__r._. :::C=~l ALASKA POWER AUTHORITV SUsITNA FINANCIAL ANALYSIS COMPARISON or RAILBELT COST OF POWER (SOOO) CASE 0:BASE CASE ANALVSIS II-Jun-8S WITHOUTSUSITNA PAGE 1 OF 2 EXISTING ANNUAL CAPITAL COSTS ON NEW PLANT (I)COMPARABLE UTlLITV -----------------------------------------------RENEWALS AND ENERGV COST or DEBT UTILITV LARGE BRADLEV REPLACEMENTS REOUIREMENTS POWER VEAR .SERVICE (2)THERHAL(3)THERMAl(4)LAKE(5)SUSITNA(6)FUEL(7)0&M(8)(9)TOTAl(10)(GWH)(II),(C/KWH)(12) ====-===========:================================~::=======~==================~====:===========:===========================~========= 1985 24,638 1,974 0 0 0 47,500 23,000 0 97,112 3,502 2.8 1986 24,692 2,289 0 0 0 61,300 24,800 0 113,081 3,767 3.0 1987 24,821 2,989 0 0 0 69,700 26,700 0 124,210 3,938 3.2 .988 24,910 9,S46 0 0 0 81,800 29,200 0 145,856 4,106 3.6 1989 25,275 9,946 0 0 0 100,100 31,400 0 166,721 4,269 3.9 1990 25,224 9,946 0 17,562 0 98,400 33,900 484 185,516 4,446 4.2 1991 25,218 14,567 0 17,562 0 115,800 37,400 514 211 ,061 4,567 4.6 1992 25,214 14,567 0 17,562 0 130.,800 39,300 547 227,990 4,676 4.9 1993 25,196 14,567 0 17,562 0 147,800 42,100 581 247,806 4,781 5.2 1994 25,180 17,783 0 17,562 0 250,100 47,700 618 358,943 4,880 7.4 1995 25,179 17,783 210,429 21,862 0 267,600 82,400 15,134 640,387 4,981 12.9 1996 25,113 17,783 210,429 21,862 0 304,400 82,300 16,087 671,975 5,090 13.3 1997 24,874 .17,783 379,398 21,862 0 307,800 121,900 33,319 S06,936 5,203 17.4 1998 24,715 17,783 379,398 21,862 0 346,500 129,600 35,418 955,276 5,317 18.0 1999 24,658 17,783 598,457 21,862 0 330,700 170,000 54,718 1,218,238 5,434 22.4 2000 24,425 17,783 598,457 21,862 0 372,600 181,500 58,229 1,274,857 5,552 23.0 2001 22,014 17,783 598,457 21,862 0 417,600 193,300 61,898 1,332,914 5,632 23.7 2002 22,009 17,783 598,457 21,862 0 476,800 196,100 65,797 1,398,809 5,713 24.5 2003 20,983 17,783 822,008 ZI,862 0 432,600 253,300 91,400 1,659,936 5,796 28.6 2004 20,970 17.783 822,008 21,862 0 481,000 270,200 97,158 1,730,981 5,879 29.4 2005 20,910 17.783 822,008 21,862 0 536,200 288,300 103,279 1,810,342 5,964 30.4 2006 20,683 17,783 1,090,234 21,862 0 516,900 346,300 135,530 2,149,292 6,050 35.5 2007 20,666 17,783 1,106,242 21,862 0 579,500 369,300 145,559 2,260,911 6,136 36.8 2008 20,651 17,783 1,123,259 21,862 0 646,700 397,100 156,313 2,383,669 6,225 38.3 2009 20,635 17,783 1,14.1,351 21,862 0 715,300 422,100 167,845 2,506,876 6,31',39.7 2010 20,619 17,783 1,141,351 21,862 0 804,300 447,800 178,419 2,632,134 6,406 41.1 2011 20,597 17,783 1,141,351 21,862 0 887,400 478,100 189,660 2,756,753 6,498 42.4 2012 20,588 17,783 1,163,088 21,862 0 989,300 513,400 203,632 2,929,653 6,543 44.8 2013 14,8S8 17,783 1,569,037 21,862 0 945,800 615,700 255,425 3,440,505 6,686 51.5 Z014 12,637 17,783 1,569,037 21,862 0 1,042,600 657,000 271,517 3,592,435 6,782 53.0 2015 12,637 17,783 1,569,037 21,862 0 1,155,400 700,900 288,622 3,766,241 6,880 54.7 2016 12,637 17,783 1,596,802 21,862 0 1,281,700 745,100 309,390 3,985,274 6,979 57.1 2017 12,637 17,783 1,626,318 21,862 0 1,426,300 800,000 331,629 4,236,530 7,080 59.8 2018 12,637 17,783 1,626,318 21,862 0 1,572,800 853,400 352,522 4,457,322 7,182 62.1 2019 12,637 17,783 1,626,318 21,862 0 1.760,100 909,700 374,731 4,723,131 7,286 64.8 2020 12,637 17,783 2,244,503 21,862 0 1,715,400 1,081,200 457,674 5,551,059 7,390 75.1 CUMUlATIVE PRESENT WORTH OF TOTAL COSTS (1985-2020)6,989,973 =--,.-..-i -,-1 ~----,--"----1 ~-1 ---1 ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY SUSITNA FINANCIAL ANALYSIS COMPARISON OF RAILBELT COST OF POWER <SOOO) CASE 0:BASE CASE ANALYSIS II-Jun-85 WITH SUSITNA PAGE 2 OF 2 EXISTING ANNUAL CAPITAL COSTS ON NEW PLANT (I)COMPARABlE UTILITY -------------_._-------------------------------RENEWALS AND ENERGY COST OF DEBT UTILITY LARGE BRADLEY REPLACEMENTS REQUIREMENTS POWER YEAR SERVICE (2)THERMAL(3)THERMAL(4)LAKE(5)SUSITNA(6)FUEL(7)0&M(8)('9)TOTAL<10)<GWHH II )<ClKWHH 12) ==================================~=====:=======~=:=============================================:=================================sz= 1985 24,638 1,974 0 0 0 47,500 23,000 0 97,112 3,502 2.8 1986 24,692 2,289 0 0 0 61,300 24,800 0 113,081 3,767 3.0 1987 24,821 2,989 0 0 0 69,700 26,700 0 124,210 3,e:;d 3.2 1988 24,910 9,946 0 0 0 81,800 29,200 ·0 145,856 4,10/,3.6 1989 25,275 9,946 0 0 0 100,100 31,400 0 166,721 4,269 3.9 1990 25,224 9,946 0 17,562 0 98,400 33,900 484 185,516 4,446 4.2 1991 25,218 14,567 0 17,562 0 115,800 37,400 514 211 ,061 4,567 4.6 1992 25,214 14,567 0 17,562 0 130,800 39,300 547 227,990 4,676 4.9 1993 25,196 14,567 0 17,562 0 147,800 42,100 581 247,806 4,781 5.2 1994 25,180 17,783 0 17,562 0 250,100 47,700 618 358,943 4,880 7.4 1995 25,179 17 ,783 0 21,862 0 291,000 50,700 657 407,181 4,981 8.2 1996 25,113 17,783 0 21,862 728,000 155,600 61,200 25,598 1,035,156 5,090 20.3 1997 24,874 17,783 0 21,862 766,000 180,700 65,400 27,211 1,103,830 5,203 21.2 1998 24,715 17,783 0 21,862 766,000 212,200 68,500 28,925 1,139,985 5,317 21.4 1999 24,658 17,783 0 21,862 766,000 259,800 69,000 30,748 1,189,851 5,434 21.9 2000 24,425 17,783 0 21,862 766,000 305,200 70,600 32,685 1,238,555 5,552 22.3 2001 22,014 17,783 0 21,862 766,000 353,200 74,500 34,744 1,290,103 5,632 22.9 2002 22,009 17,783 0 21,862 1,351,000 82,100 68,200 57,033 1,619,987 5,713 28.4 2003 20,983 17,783 0 21,862 1,384,000 94,200 72,500 60,626 1,671,954 5,796 28.8 2004 20,970 17,783 0 21,862 1,384,000 112,900 71,400 64,445 1,699,360 5,879 28.9 2005 20,910 17,783 0 21,862 1,384,000 132,600 82,300 68,505 1,727,960 5,964 29.0 2006 20,683 17,783 0 21,862 1,384,000 177 ,800 67,200 72,821 1,762,149 6,050 29.1 2007 20,666 17,783 0 21,862 1,384,000 210,200 69,900 77 ,409 1,801,820 6,136 29.4 2008 20,651 17,783 0 21,862 2,119,000 0 69,900 107,186 2,356,382 6,225 37.9 2009 20,635 17,783 0 21,862 2,150,000 0 69,500 113,938 2,393,718 6,315 37.9 2010 20,619 11,783 19,233 21,862 2,150,000 11,100 75,700 122,907 2,439,204 6,406 38.1 20tl 20,597 17,783 19,233 21,862 2,150,000 12,300 80,500 130,650 2,452,925 6,498 37.7 2012 20,588 17,783 19,233 21,862 2,150,000 23,000 85,600 138,881 2,476,947 6,543 37.9 2013 14,898 17,783 65,450 21,862 2,150,000 28,800 93,200 151,933 2,543,926 6,686 38.0 2014 12,637 17,783 65,450 21,862 2,150,000 47,200 99,100 161,505 2,575,537 6,782 38.0 2015 12,637 17,783 65,450 21,862 2,150,000 68,300 106,000 171,679 2,613,712 6,880 38.0 2016 12,637 17,783 120,980 21,862 2,150,000 104,000 114,600 187,665 2,729,527 6,979 39.1 2017 12,637 17,783 120,980 21,862 2,150,000 136,000 122,600 199,488 2,781,350 7,080 39.3 2018 12,637 17,783 152,359 21,862 2,150,000 185,300 136,300 214,976 2,891,218 7,182 40.3 2019 12,637 17,783 152,359 21,862 2,150,000 238,600 144,900 228,520 2,966,661 7,286 40.7 2020 12,637 17,783 152,359 21,862 2,150,000 340,500 154,900 242,917 3,092,958 7,390 41.9 CUMULATIVE PRESENT WORTH Of TOTAL COSTS (1985-2020)6,447,372 lI-Jl/n Interest Earnings Afinua' Setlli-annual ~1 t 1.00 5.36 SUSITNA ~YDROELECTRIC PROJECT RATE STA9AllZATION ANALVSIS UTILITV LOAD FORECASTS eASE CASE --1 WlT~SUS lTNA THERMAL ALTERNATIVE RATE STABILIZATION ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------TOTAL SVSTEM TOTAL TOTAL SYSTEM TOTAL ACCRUED SYSTEM ENERGV SYSTEM SYSTEM ENERGV SYSTEM REO.STATE STATE REO. COSTS SALES COSTS COSTS SALES COSTS SUBSIDV CONTRIB. CONTRIB.SUBSIDY SAVINGS CV ($MIL>(GWh)(c/kWh)(t MIL>(GWh)(c/kWh)($MIL>($MIL>($MIL)($MIL>($MIL>------------------------------------------------- ------- ---_..._---------------------- 1985 97 3,502 2.8 97 3,502 2.8 100.0 100.0 1986 113 3,767 3.0 113 3,767 3.0 34 200.0 266.2 1987 124 3,938 3.2 124 3,938 3.2 22 12.4 286.5 1988 146 4,106 3.6 146 4,106 3.6 9 0.0 308.5 1989 167 4,269 3.9 167 4,269 3.9 -64 0.0 410.3 1990 186 4,446'4.2 186 4,446 4.2 0.0 455.5 1991 211 4,567 4.6 211 4,567 4.6 0.0 505.6 1992 228 4,676 4.9 2Z8 4,676 4.9 0.0 561.2 1993 248 4,781 5.2 248 4,781 5.2 0.0 622.9 ISS4 359 4,880 7.4 359 4,880 7.4 0.0 691.4 19S5 407 4,981 8.2 640 4,981 12.9 0.0 767.5 1996 1,035 5,090 20.3 678 5,090 13.3 357 0.0 475.6 357 0 1997 1,104 5,203 21.2 907 5,203 17.4 197 320.4 197 0 1998 1,140 5,317 21.4 955 5,317 18.0 185 161.1 185 0 19S9 1,190 5,434 21.9 1,218 5,434 22.4 0 178.8 0 28 2000 1,239 5,552 22.3 1,275 5,552 23.0 0 198.5 0 36 2001 1,290 5,632 22.9 1,333 5,632 23.7 0 220.3 °43 2002 1,620 5,713 28.4 1,399 5,713 24.5 221 11.5 221 0 2003 1,672 5,796 28.8 1,660 .5,796 28.6 12 .0 12 0 2004 1,699 5,879 28.9 1,731 5,879 29.4 °.0 0 32 2005 1,728 5,964 29.0 1,810 5,964 30.4 0 .0 0 82 2006 1,762 6,050 29.1 2,149 6,050 35.5 0 .0 0 387 2007 1,802 6,136 29.4 2,261 6,136 36.8 0 .0 0 459 2008 2,356 6,225 37.9 2,384 6,225 38.3 0 .0 0 27 2009 2,394 6,315 37.9 2,507 6,315 39.7 0 .0 0 113 2010 2,439 6,406 38.1 2,632 6,406 41.1 0 .0 0 193 2011 2,453 6,498 37.7 2,757 6,498 42.4 0 .0 0 304 2012 2,477 6,543 37.9 2,930 6,543 44.8 0 .0 0 453 2013 2,544 6,686 38.0 3,441 6,686 51.5 0 .0 0 897 2014 2,576 6,782 38.0 3,592 6,782 53.0 0 .0 0 1,017 2015 2,614 6,880 38.0 3,766 6,880 54.7 °.0 0 1,153 2016 2,730 6,979 39.1 3,985 6,979 57.1 0 .0 0 1,256 2017 2,781 7,080 39.3 4,237 7,080 59.8 °.0 0 1,455 2018 2,891 7,182 40.3 4,457 7,182 62.1 0 .0.0 1,566 2019 2,967 7,286 40.7 4,723 7,286 64.8 °.0 0 1,756 2020 3,093 7,390 41.9 5,551 7,390 75.1 0 .0 0 2,458 ---------------------------- 972 312.4 972 13,715 1 J '-,.c -'1 AI AC::I(A PO\AlED AIITUOA'TV'-~'-'-~VI~"~~"nv I II 11 I I SUSITNA FINANCIAL ANALYSIS COMPARISON OF RAILBELT COST OF ENERGY 20202015 -.__.-WITH SUSITNA ----BASE CASE WITHOUT SUSITNA 20102005 r -·----'-f ----.--- ........-I____.-J- 2000 CASE 0:BASE CASE ANALYSIS80 75 70 65 60a:w 553::-0:1:0..3::50LL~ OU)45I- I-ZU)w 00 40 0 -Jw<35-JZ (0- <~30a:o<z0..-25~ 0 0 20 1 5 10 5 0 1 985 1 990 1 995 YEAR JUNE 12,1985 WITH SUSITNA O.BASE ANALYSIS "(5 TCF GAS) I"f"II I' lSUS I TNA POWER S4LES io4EGOT I ATIONS,·YE ARS 1 '85-2000 ----'lron:~,SUSITNA BASE FOR TAE ToTAL RAILBELT RE~ION J08 NUMRER 23635 Obl04/85 06:33 AM ---I~O ON DATA PREP JOB 23SQg DATED 0670478S ************************************************************ *** TYPES 7-10_ GENERATION SYSTEM ---~UKE COAL NGASCT oIL cT nIESE'COMCYC TYPE 1 2 3 4 5 b OpTMlING 0 lqq2 tqe5 0 0 1489 peT TRIM 0 0 0 0 0 0 -~r-MW 0 ~4 443 1~1 ~e ~5e 4~SUM:1133 *********************************************************************** I -~ -** ToTAL CAPAS. YEA R L V M WAD D I T I U ~S +TIES *********************************************************--- 85---- ~, ---- -'8i) ..-87---23-. --- ~88-- ----89--- ~ -~- 45* 15* 1117 1160 t171 132* 13u3 1303 -~ 13 ,;t 87*---'-----------------------------tl"":ijlr:o"..on---- -crz-- 1358-------------------------------------- 1358 ".------------------------------------- 25*--'------------------------------...,.t-r3-a8"Z3~-- ..-1425 ----_.._--------------~---~---~--------~----------------- " WITH SUSITNA O.BASE ANALYSIS (5 TCF GAS) SUSITNA PO~ER SALES NEGOTIATIONS,YEARS lQQ'-2020, GUSB,SOSITNA BASE FOR THE ToTAL R'IlSELT REGION, JOB NUMBER 36b38 06/01/85 10:0Q AM -----eAsrD ON DATA PQEP JOB 36611 ~ATED 06/01/65 *****,.****************************************************** TYPES 7-10 "*** GENERATION "STEM ~--------mm<E COAL N~ASCT OIL cT DIEsEL coNCVC TYPE 1 _c 3 4 5 b OPT~ZlNG 0 199b lq96 0 0 1996 PCT TRIM 0 0 0 0 0 0 1995 'M'ir b _of3 bO.)191 ~o .)::.~uso SU~=lUcS ********,.**************************************************************-------ToTAL CAPAB. VR ** --r EAR L Y M WAD D I T ION S +TIES ************** ******* ******* *****************************---,-----~---------------------------- 33q* 15b3 1560 150b 134q 1343 1325 47P.* 1137 1137 1735 173u 1438 1374 --,--'-------------------------------- 4 ---'----------------------"l~------------ 3 o 1------------------------------.........""""1"1"'----- --------~---------------------------- ------------------------------""'I'""'!"'7I""I"~---- "WITH SUSITNA O.BAS'E ANALYSIS (5 TCF GAS) 8 753* 2127 9--- 10 lX 87FF""---------II,I 'I -rr--- ----- 12 -n 2X 87 2040 2082 2082 2081 _iii_.i._*.*ii ••*.*••*i*_.*••i ii_.i ___ii.___* 25 522 0 0 0 17q5 su~:2292 1.I'22.&0.0 0.0 0.0 7e.l 50"14:100 pel 2020 0 1"'"PC T TOr-'-rrO-."Or----.,..--r--r--,.,....r----n-"...---n--n---rr-n-~h::""""T---.:'TT'I:~MTn-"I:7T"T"-- •••••i.t••••*_._••*__._.•_.*_.._.**.*_._.*._*.**__.i .._.*...* *********-************************************************************* ~JrDU---0 0 522 0 0 0 15/0 50~~2092-1 .'''''IV RET 0 -~8 abO!-191 -20 -358 -S SUM:-122Si••iii *i1..*__ WITHOUT SUSITNA .,0.BASE ANALYSIS SUSITNA PO~ER SALES NEGOTIATIONS,·VEARS 1985-2000 GUTTS,THERMAL BASE FOR THE TOTlL RAILBELT REGION JOB NUMBER 3248&0&/04/85 08:59 AM BASED ON DATA PRE~JOe 32450 DATED 0&/04/85 ************************************************************ GE~fERATtON SYSTE~ NUKE COlL NGASCT OIL c1 DIESEL COMCYC TYPES TYPE 1 2 3 lol 5 &7-10 •OP1'MZING 0 lqq2 1'185 0 0 1988 *** -!.£J'TRIM 0 0 0 u 0 0 1geflol M~0 54 4£43 197 36 358 t45 SU~=1133 **_r********************************************************************----------------------------------:-:::":'-:-:-----TOTAL CAPAS. VR YEA R L_Y ~~ADO 1 T I U ~S +TIES ********* ******* *******************************************~......-.-- 85 1177 I1bd 11 7 L 1303 1357 TYPES 7-10 *** "WITHOUT SUSITNA O.BASE ANALYSIS SUSITNA POWER SALES NEGOTIATIONS,YEAR'1.'.-2020 GiUTS,THERMAL BASE FOR THE TOtAL RAILBEl T R£;lON JOB NUMBER 30250 06/01/15 01.23 AM ---SIASEID ON DATA PREP JOB _.30196 .DATED O,J01/15 ************************************************************ GENERATION SYSTEM -----NUKE COAL NGASCf OIL CT DIESEL COMCYC TYPE 1 2 3 4 5 6 OPTMZING 0 tq96 1996 0 0 1996 PCT TRIM 0 0 0 0 0 0 Iq4!:MW 0 273 603 191 lO 355 180 SUM=Ib25 *********************************************************************** -----TUrAL CAPAS. YR ** YEA R l .y "WAD 0 1 T I 0 ~~+tIES **************************** ******* ********************** 1120 1718 1113 1621 164-4 !'Ii -,WITHOUT SUSITNA O.BASE ANALYSIS 8 -.,,-- ,...;,-----------~~------------------.......""""'J......---- 10 11---,-------------------------------.""!""I...,-.---- 12 --------'----------------------------,....,...,...,..---- 13 1~200----------------------------------,1""'l!gn4Moor----- 14 1840---------------------------------------- 15 1840 16 1)(87 ---'-----------------------------~11"'18!1"':4~Orr----- -rr- 1X 87 1"21 -18 ------------------------------------- --------------------------------------- 20 ·1)(200 a •2121 ***~r**********_****.*****.********************************************* -*************i*i*******************i***i***'*******_************'****** M.ADD 0 1200 522 0 0 0 0 SU~~1722 MW ~~0 -48 -603 -191 -20 -358 0 SUM=-1220 ***~r*****************************************************-iV2lr-0 1425 522 0 0 0 18U SOlie 212J ~CT TOT 0.0 .67.0 i4.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.5 SUM=100 peT ~. FUEL PRICE o.BASE ANALYSIS ·, ANCHLlRAGt -APA COOK INLET IN t Cl Q9 ~ NATURAL GAS ($/~~MBTU) NOMINAL ~',~EAL PRICE YI:.Afol PRICe:(lNF-b.31%) *************.******* r-($1985)(5) 1985 2.000 2.000 ''t8b 2.150 2.28& I"1B7 2.240 2.';)32 1~88 2.170 2.b01 1\.f8'"2.250 2.874 l~ClO 2.3b8 3.210 1 qc,!2.492 3.590 1992 2.&23 4.02b 19q3 c?161 4.505 1'~Q4 2.90b .5.040 l",q,:>3.01:j~5.&40 199b 3.21'1 0.310 19'H :S.388 7.0&0 1998 3.560 7.900 ~1999 3.753 .8.839- 200u .5.950 9.690 2005 4.840 lb.457 2\JJO ~.q30 21.37~ 2015 b.851 42.94B 2020 7.910 &7.343 ~ .... _. I -, ANChOt<AbE -APA NURTH SLOPE IN 1999 NATURAL GAS (S/MMBTU) NO~INAL REAL PRICE .,..,.YEAR PRICt (lNF-b.31X) ******************** (:i198~)(:Ii) ..... 1985 c.OOO 2.000 19bb 2.150 2.2P.b F'"''181 2.240 2.!J32 1988 c.170 2.&0-' 1989 2.250 2.874 19 Q O c.41&3.2Al 19 lH 2.59~3 •.J4b 1992 2.7Po7 4.277 14Q.s C?1i9.3 4.88.3 t'194 5.214 !J.:i74 149~3.451 6.364 199b 's.701 1.2&&" 1'197 :S.9Bl 8.29:' 1496 4.275 9.471 1'199 4.~91 IO.b12 "UOCl 4.930 12.344 2005 &.140 20.871 2010 7.370 34.028 2015 8.511 53.357 2(J20 '1.831 83.b90 IjELlJGA Yf-AR ****** 19~t:) tc.;Rb 1981 1988 lqBq IG Q O 1yCH ]lo~q2 19Q~ 19q,~ 1q95 !"I q b 19q1 1998 199'1 2000 21005 2010 2015 2020 -------,-_._-,--~--- -. RIVER -APA COOK IN 19q9 NATURAL GAS ($/Mi'1ATU) ~EAL PRICI:: ******* ($198~) 0.2 4 0 0.240 0.240 0 •.500 0.300 0.310 0.310 0.520 0.320 2.qOb o5.Ol:\q 3.21~ 3.3eb 5.56b 5.753 3.950 b.851 INLET NOMINAL PRlfl:: (INF-o.31%) ******* (S) 0.240 0.240 0.2 4 u 0.300 0.300 0.310 0 •.510 0.320 .O.3?O 5.040 '::3.&40 0.310 1.061 7.'100 b.839 9.890 27 •.38Q 67.344 -. APA NENANA COAL PRICE ($/"'r",RTU) NOMINAL REAL PRICE. YE.AR PRiCE (lNF-b.31%) ******************** ($198';5)($) ~ 1985 1.910 1.910 ,....1986 1.939 2.0&1 1487 1.9h9 2.225 1988 1.9CJQ 2.401 1C:J8Q 2.029 2.~q2 1990 2.060 2.797 1991 2.0Ql 3.019 1''192 2.123 3.2';8 199_'S ~.155 3.51'"3 1994 2.187 3.793 I~Q':J 2.220 4.0Q4 1~9b 2.255 4.417 1997 2.287 4.7h5 1~q8 2.321 ~.tQl 1999 2.355 5.S47 2uOO 2.,3 Q O 5.98'4 200~2.S70 8.739 2010 2.760 12.744 (>015 2.q77 18.662I""" 2u20 3-.210 27.330 ", APA BELUGA EXPOI-lT COAL PRICE (S/MMBTU) ~ NO~lNAL KEAL PR1Ct:. ~.,YI:,At<PRlr:~(INF-b ...H 1.) ******************** (Slq8S)($) 1985 l.b70 1.&70 198&1.&70 1.71':1 1981 1.&70 l.ts87 ,q88 1.&70 2.00& 1989 1.&70 2.135 lQ90 1.&70 2.2&8 19q1 1.&70 2.411 19Q2 1.&70 2.'='63 19(;3 1.&70 2.725 F"1994 1.&70 2.8q( 1995 1.&70 3.079 1'~q&1.&70 3.274 1"1""1 qcn 1.&70 3.480 19q6 1.&70 3.700 1119'1 1.&70 3.933 2000 1.670 4.181 2005 1.920 &.528 2010 2.1&0 9.'H:S 2015 2.310 14.481 2020 2.470 21.02'1 ~..,., ~_'"-ro ----..,.....-----,-----------------1--.i ", FMUS COAL pRICE (S/MMBTLI) ~1iliIl NOf-lINAL REAL PRICf. I"""YEAR PRICE (INF-6.31X) ******************** ($1985)(~) ..... 1985 2.130 2.130 1C,Sb 2.425 2.577 1987 2.760 3.11"# 1q8d 3.141 3.774 1989 3.57&4.567 1990 4.070 5.527 19 lH 4.130 5.9&2 1992 4.1 Q l &.432 1993 4.253 &.~:or:9 19Q~4.31b 7.486 1C~Q5 "•.V\o 8.07b P19b 4.44&a.71~ 199.,4.513 9.40~ 1998 4.~81 10.149 1999 4.&50 10.952 FI"'"2000 4.720 11.818 2005 ~.OBO 17.273 1'1'"2010 5.450 25.163 2015 5.879 3&.85':> 2020 &.341 53.976 ~ ,.... " ., .- GVEA FUfL OIL PRICt:. ($/MMBTUl..... NuMINAL REAL PRICE """'VEAl-<PRICE (INF-b.31%) ******************** ($lq8~)($) ~ 1 q~~4.~50 4.350 198b 4.419 4.b9B 1'161 4.489 ~.07.s 1988 4.560 5.479 1989 4.630 ~.'H4 ~P~90 4.700 0.382 l~ql 4.7°0 0.7R5 1992 4.700 7.213 1993 4.700 7 .bM~ 19 Q 4 4./00 8.152 199:'.4.100 8.&b7 l~~b 4.·,59 q.32t\ ''''97 4.818 10.0110 1'19()4.878 10.807 \l-i9'1 4.9~'"11.b32 2000 ~.OOO 12.S20 2005 5.21:jO 17.851 (""""2010 5.51.s 25.452i ?O15 5.789 3b.290 2020 0.076 51.743 -, .....FMUS FUEL OIL PRICE ($/MMBTlJ) NOMINAL REAL P~lCE YEAR PRICE (INF-6.51 X) ******************** ($1985)(S) ~ 1985 &.sqo 6.590 198&6.590 7.006 11181 &.590 7.448 1988 &.590 7.918 1989 &.1qO tI.&73 P~qo &.qqo 9.492 f""1'191 7.20&10.403 1<;q2 7.429 11.401 1e,9-S 7.b5e,12.49& 11.194 7.d9&13.b9S 1995 8.140 15.010 P~Q&8.48&1&.634 l'il9 I 8.846 18.4~4 1998 9.221 20..429 11199 9.613 22.640 ?OOO 10.021 25.090 ?OO5 12.277 41.741 ?010 15.040 &9.441 ?C115 17.367 108.877 2020 20.052 170.711 -i ~ .... ., -. SES FuE'L OIL PRiCE (~/MMBTU) NOMINAL REAL PRICE VEAl{PRICE (lNF-b.31%l ******+************* ($19B~)(S) ""'" 198~7.210 7.210 ''JBb 7.210 7.bb5 1987 7.210 8.149 19~8 7.210 ~.b63 1 ~89 7.430 9.4 Q O ~1990 ".&50 10.388 !19'11 7.887 11.385 ,..~q2 8.131 12.47'1 19'105 tt.3R3 13.b77 I'1Q4 8.bQ2 14.990 1995 b.q10 ]b.42g 1';9b 9.289 1~.206 1C~Q7 9.b83 20.17G 1998 10.094 22.364 199q 10.':123 24.78~ ...-2000 10.970 27.468 200~13.434 45.b7b 2010 1b.451 75.9'52 2015 18.998 11~.108 2020 21.941 18b.78b -. HEA FuEL OIL PRICE (S/MMBTU) ~ NOMINAL REAL PRICE .-Yi:AR PRICE (INF-b.31%) **************"****** ($1985)(5) f"l'i'" 1985 7.780 7.7AO 198b 7.780 8.271 1987 7.780 8.7°3 1988 1.780 9.348 1989 0.010 10.231 ~,lqqO 8.250 11.203 1'191 b.506 12.27'1 1992 8.769 13.45~ 1493 ~.O41 J4.7S1-1994 9.321 16.1b7 1'195 ~.bl0 17.7?O 149b 10.01~19.6 .....8-ly9,10.443 21.7h5 1998 10.887 24.119 199'1 11.34 9 20.72'1 ~.?OOO 11.831 2<t.b2~ 2005 1t1.4 G 1 49.271 ~2010 17.750 81.91:52 ?o15 20.503 12tS.541 2020 2.5.683 201.615 J )) _....._._~~.-..._.....-.. ~Z 'd.:3:!:"l t-t t-d(t-t !:"l t-t IV ttl E:~fI)0 ::r III 0 0 ~....0 'dO 0 -Ill fI)III rt (~Plrt(11 ((1-3 VI In PI ::1 rt 0 tn PI ::1::r ......0 fI)~tn 'd (fl ::1 0 fI)::1 H'tor:!rt 0 OGl Gl tor:!1-3 '<......III E:fI)PI III P ::1 ....00 fI)PI III qE:tnrt 11 ::1 ~H tn HI ::J ....1lI In tn Gl ........III III In ~~PI PI~III PI tn <:!3 ~.... ttl PI III gJ !3 .In 'd tn Gl~....fI)'<rt X rt o 'd I 11 PI'<:tl rt I rt In .... 'U ....fI)::111 0 ....In In p,<fI)......<: 0 81 p......0 0 -...... ::1 I 11 tn .... t1 0 PI fI)tn tn rtrtfI)~"'<: 6 :-1 ~I w r:-1:"I-~-t-NO:-rDESCRIPTION -, I I I I I !I I I..I --+------..----I .. x Xi ---'1 Xi-··--i' I I I I I -+-----1---...-1---- -~-L~~!-~----~_.-l.~- ~x ~>::X X X X XGXXXX~-=E_i 1 I 1999 Gas Peak ~~•.-~-..j---;-'-;;;:~-~~-~;:~~~-ice'I 4 CEA-Enstar Gas Price__.•_........_.._.~•__~·_.·_···__.~A._.r~__~,~. .~._ X 5 APA Coal Price........---._---~---..--..-.----..-------I .X X i 6 Nenana 0%1-1-+1-41--I1--1--t --1--";'----..---;--"--_.--_.__..__..__._...•...................--!-I X X !7 Beluga Low Coal PriceIT-I-~G---1~'--=-·····-·--~.=.~~=.~=':.J ':~~:-.~::..~':::'~-.'.~~~~~:~~~~~--..~::_._.__..:..:.:.::~.~.~-_.~ ........_..-x._____._..._...._._..____...1 __~....~~C~.~.~~x_~:>.~.~___...I X X X X I X X X x:x 10 11.2%Financing(Thermal only)._·tx~·"_·_~-----".",-_·__·_···_·i-1-···_·iO%···F·i~~~·~·.i~g··(-B~·th)···_·._.~- I t I x I ---"""--'-'"ii······5·%--i~fi~-ti~~······..·_-'-'_.--- f ---r-'--t·..··/-.-_.._-_.f----.--_-_.----..-.~--.........- X i I !13 Keetna I~..X __~_-.~..l xJ ..~~-~--...--~---.._~-~--;:;-----i4-"'-B'~~di~~"L~k~3rd'·Uni't···..--- ~_~~.__-~1--·--+=~._~~-~~r_~.~~_-=~.:~..~=~~-.~---_..._~:~.~:~-=_-~:~·:!~---Ph·~.~.~._I···O~·~y'·......----.---I iii !:X 16 Diamond Coal________.._.I I 1 J ---,J"1 l 1 1 j-----I J J 1 ) ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY SUSITNA FINANCIAL ANALYSIS COMPARISON or RAILBELT COST OF POWER ($000) CASE I:2 Tcr GAS II-Jun-85 WITHOUT SUS ITNA PAGE I or 2 EXISTING ANNUAl CAPITAL COSTS OF"NEW PLANT (I)COHPARABlE UTILITY -----------------------------------------------RENEWAL S ANO ENERGY COST or DEBT UTILITY LARGE BRADlEY REPLACEMENTS REQUIREMENTS POWER YEAR SERVICE (2)TI£RMAL(3)TI£RMAL(4)LAKE(5)SUSITNA(6)rUEL(7)0&M(8)(9)TOTAL<10)(GWHH I J)(C/KWHH 12) ============~==~R============:=:=:=============:=:===============::===============================================================z~~ 1985 24,638 1,974 0 0 0 47,700 23,100 0 97,412 3,502 2.8 1986 24,692 2,289 0 0 0 61,500 24,800 0 113,281 3,767 3.0 1987 24,821 2,989 0 0 0 69,700 26,600 0 124,110 3,938 3.2 1988 24,910 9,946 0 0 0 81,900 29,500 '0 146,256 4,106 3.6 1989 25,275 9,948 0 0 0 100,100 31,500 0 166,821 4,269 3.9 1990 25,224 9,946 0 17,562 0 99,000 34,200 484 186,416 4,446 4.2 1991 25,218 14,567 0 17,562 0 116,900 37,400 514 212,161 4,567 4.6 1992 25,214 14,567 0 17,562 0 132,400 39,200 547 229,490 4,676 4.9 1993 25,196 14,567 0 17,562 0 151,200 41,800 581 250,906 4,781 5.2 1994 25,180 17,783 0 17,562 0 260,000 48,000 618 369,143 4,880 7.6 1995 25,179 17,783 210,429 21,862 0 275,500 82,400 15,134 648,287 4,981 13.0 1996 25,113 17,783 210,429 21,862 0 313,700 82,300 16,087 687,275 5,090 13.5 1997 24,874 17,783 379,398 21,862 0 313,000 121,800 33,319 912,036 5,203 17.5 1998 24,715 17,783 379,398 21,862 0 349,700 129,900 35,418 958,776 5,3l7 18.0 1999 24,658 17,783 598,457 21,862 0 332,500 170,200 54,778 1,220,238 5,434 22.5 2000 24,425 17,783 598,457 21,862 0 372,600 182,000 58,229 1,275,357 5,552 23.0 2001 22,014 17,783 598,457 21,862 0 417,300 193,200 61,898 1,332,514 5,632 23.7 2002 22,009 17,783 598,457 21,862 0 476,700 196,700 65,797 1,399,309 5,713 24.5 2003 20,983 17,783 822,008 21,862 0 433,200 253,400 91,400 1,660,636 5,796 28.7 2004 20,970 17,783 822,008 21,862 0 480,700 269,400 97,158 1,729,881 5,879 29.4 2005 20,910 17,783 822,008 21,862 0 535,100 288,500 103,279 1,809,442 5,964 30.3 2006 20,683 17,783 1,090,234 21,862 0 516,300 347,200 135,530 2,149,592 6,050 35.5 2007 20,666 17,783 1,106,242 Z1,862 0 578,500 369,500 145,559 2,260,111 6,136 36.8 2008 20,651 17,783 1,123,259 21,862 0 647,600 395,900 156,313 2,383,369 6,225 38.3 2009 20,635 17,783 1,141,351 21,862 0 715,300 421,300 167,845 2,506,076 6,315 39.7 2010 20,619 17,783 1,141,351 21,862 0 805,000 448,200 178,419 2,633,234 6,406 41.1 2011 20,597 17,783 1,141,351 21,862 0 887,800 476,800 189,660 2,755,853 6,498 42.4 2012 20,588 17,783 1,163,088 21,862 0 989,200 514,100 203,632 2,930,253 6,543 44.8 2013 14,898 17,783 1,569,037 21,862 0 944,500 615,600 255,425 3,439,105 6,686 51.4 2014 12,637 17,783 1,569,037 21,862 0 1,043,200 655,600 271,517 3,591,635 6,782 53.0 2015 12,637 17,783 1,569,037 21,862 0 1,156,200 702,600 288,622 3,768,741 6,880 54.8 2016 12,637 l7,783 1,596,802 21,862 0 1,280,400 743,300 309,390 3,982,174 6,979 57.1 2017 12,637 17,783 1,626,318 21,862 0 1,427,400 801,600 331,629 4,239,230 7,080 59.9 2018 12,637 17,783 1,626,318 21,862 0 1,572,800 853,300 352,522 4,457,222 7,182 62.1 2019 12,637 17,783 1,626,318 21,862 0 1,762,300 908,200 374,731 4,723,831 7,286 64.8 2020 12,637 17,783 2,244,503 21,862 0 1,718,800 1,083,200 457,674 5,556,458 7,390 75.2 CUMUlATIVE PRESENT WORTU or TOTAL COSTS (1985-2020).7,006,319 j 1 I 1 t 1 )-j J 1 i j j ALASKA POWER AUTWORITY SUSITNA FINANCIAL ANALYSIS COHPARISON OF RAILBELT COST Of POWER ($000) CASE I:2 TCF GAS II-Jun-85 WITH SUSITNA PAGE 2 OF Z EXISTING ANNUAL CAPITAL COSTS ON NEW PLANT (I)COMPARABlE UTILITY -----------------------------------------------RENEWALS AND ENERGY COST or DE8T UTILITY LARGE BRADlEY REPLACEMENTS REQU[REI1ENTS POWER VEAR SERViCE (2)THERHAL(3)THERHAL(4)LAKE(5)SUSITNA(6)FUEL(7)0&H(8)(9)TOTAL<10)(GWWH 11)(C/I(WH)(I Z) =====:===============================:=======================================~=========== ===========================================~ 1985 24,638 1,974 0 0 0 47,700 23,100 0 97,412 3,502 2.8 1986 24,692 2,289 0 0 0 61,500 24,800 0 113,281 3,767 3.0 1987 24,821 2,989 0 0 0 69,700 26,600 0 124,110 3,938 3.2 1988 24,910 9,946 0 0 0 81,900 29,500 0 146,256 4,106 3.6 1989 25,275 9,946 0 0 0 100,100 31,500 0 166,821 4,269 3.9 1990 25,224 9,946 0 17,562 0 98,300 34,200 484 1&'5,716 4,446 4.2 1991 25,218 14,567 0 11 .562 0 116,900 37,400 514 212,161 4,567 4.6 1992 25,214 14,567 0 17,562 0 132,400 39,200 547 229,490 4,676 4.9 1993 25,196 14,567 0 17,562 0 150,400 41,800 581 250,106 4,781 5.2 1994 25,180 17,783 0 17,562 0 118,900 48,000 618 288,043 4.880 5.9 1995 25,179 17,783 0 21,862 0 217,800 51,100 657 334,381 4,981 6.7 1996 25,113 17,783 0 21,862 728,000 161,500 61.700 25,598 1,041,556 5,090 20.5 1997 24,874 17,783 0 21,862 766,000 185,600 r 64,800 27,211 1,108.130 5,203 21.3 1998 24,715 17,783 0 21,862 766,000 216,100 69,200 28,925 1,144,585 5,317 21.5 1999 24,658 17,783 0 21,862 766,000 262,600 68,600 30,748 1,.192,251 5,434 21.9 2000 24,425 17,783 0 21,862 766,000 305,300 70,200 32,685 1,238,255 5,552 22.3 2001 22,014 17,783 0 21,862 766,000 353,900 74,200 34,744 1,290,503 5,632 22.9 2002 22,009 17,783 0 21,862 1,351,000 81,700 68,300 57,033 1,619,687 5,713 28.3 2003 20,983 17,783 0 21,862 1,384,000 93,500 71,900 60,626 1,670,654 5,796 28.8 2004 20,970 17,783 0 "21,862 1,384,000 112,400 77 ,500 64,445 1,698,960 5,879 28.9 2005 20,910 17,783 °21,862 1,384,000 131,700 81,500 68,505 1,726,260 5,964 28.9 2006 20,683 17,783 0 21,862 1,384,000 178,100 67,600 72,821 1,762,849 6.050 29.1 2007 20,666 11,783 0 21,862 1,384,000 209,100 70,500 77 ,409 1,801,320 6,136 29.4 2008 20,651 17,783 0 21,862 2,119,000 0 70,800 107,186 2,357,282 6,225 37.9 2009 20,635 17,783 0 21,862 2,150,000 0 70,700 113,938 2,394,918 6,315 37.9 2010 20,619 11,783 19,233 21,862 2,150,000 12,200 76,200 122,907 .2,440,804 6,406 38.1 2011 20,597 17,783 19,233 21,862 2,150,000 13,200 78.900 130,650 2,452,225 6,498 37.7 2012 20,588 17,783 19,233 21,862 2,150,000 21,300 85,100 138,881 2,474,747 6,543 37.8 2013 14,898 17,783 65,450 21,862 2,150,000 30,600 91,800 151,933 2,544,326 6,686 38.1 2014 12,637 11,783 65,450 21,862 2,150,000 45,400 99,000 161,505 2,573,637 6,782 37.9 2015 12,637 17,783 65,450 21,862 2,150,000 66,700 106,700 171,679 2,612,812 6,880 38.0 2016 12,637 17,783 120,980 21,862 2,150,000 105,500 115,100 187,665 2.731,527 6,979 39.1 2017 12,637 17,783 120,980 2.1 ,862 2,150,000 134,500 124,100 199,488 2,781,350 7,080 39.3 2018 12,637 17,783 152,359 21,862 2,150,000 184,000 133,900 214,976 2,887,518 7,182 40.2 2019 12,637 11,783 152,359 21,862 2,150,000 240,600 144,400 228,520 2,968,161 7,286 40.7 2020 12,637 17,783 152,359 21,862 2,150,000 337,300 155,700 242,917 3,090,558 7,390 41.8 CUHULATIVE PRESENT WORTH Of TOTAL COSTS (1985-2020)6.402,056 I II-Jun Inte~est Ea~nings Anr:ui:! S.",j-annual J .._J 11.00 5.36 J SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT RATE STABALIZATtON ANALYSIS UTILITY LOAD FORECASTS CASE i:2 iCF GAS 1 J -J 1 'j -..~1 WltHSlJSlTNA THERMAL ALTERNATIVE RATE STABILIZATION ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------TOTAL SYSTEM TOTAL TOTAL SYSTEM TOTAL ACCRUED SYSTEM ENERGY SYSTEM SYSTEM ENERGY SYSTEM REQ.STATE STATE REQ. COSTS SALES COSTS COSTS SALES COSTS SUBSIDY CONTRIB. CONTRIB.SlIJSlDY SAVINGS CY (.MIL)(GWh)(c/kWh)<t MIU (GWh.(c/kWh)<t MIL><$MIL><.MIL><.MIL><$MIL>------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1985 97 3,502 2.8 97 3,502 2.8 100.0 100.0 1986 113 3,767 3.0 113 3,767 3.0 34 200.0 266.2 1987 124 3,938 3.2 124 3,938 3.2 22 10.9 284.8 1988 146 4,106 3.6 146 4,106 3.6 9 0.0 306.7 1989 167 4,269 3.9 167 4,269 3.9 -64 0.0 408.2 1990 IB6 4,446 4.2 186 4,446 4.2 0.0 453.1 1991 212 4,567 4.6 21.2 4,567 4.6 0.0 503.0 1992 230 4,676 4.9 230 4,676 4.9 0.0 558.3 1993 250 4,781 5.2 251 4,781 5.2 0.0 619.7 1994 288 4,880 5.9 369 4,880 7.6 0.0 687.9 1995 334 4,981 6.7 648 4,981 13.0 0.0 763.6 1996 1,042 5,090 20.5 687 5,090 13.5 354 0.0 474.3 354 0 1997 1,108 5,203 21.3 912 5,203 17.5 196 319.8 196 0 1998 1,145 5,317 21.5 959 5,317 18.0 186 159.3 186 0 1999 1,192 5,434 21.9 1,220 5,434 22.5 0 176.8 0 28 2000 1,239 5,552 22.3 1,275 5,552 23.0 0 196.2 0 37 2001 1,291 5,632 22.9 1,333 5,632 23.7 0 217.8 0 42 2002 1,620 5,713 28.4 1,399 5,713 24.5 220 9.6 220 0 2003 1,671 5,796 28.8 1,661 5,796 28.7 10 .0 10 0 2004 1,699 5,879 28.9 1,730 5,879 29.4 0 .0 0 31 2005 1,726 5,964 28.9 1,809 5,964 30.3 0 .0 0 83 2006 1,763 6,050 29.1 2,150 6,050 35.5 0 .0 0 387 2007 1,801 6,136 29.4 2,260 6,136 36.8 0 .0 0 459 2008 2,357 6,225 37.9 2,383 6,225 38.3 0 .0 0 26 2009 2,395 6,315 37.9 2,506 6,315 39.7 0 .0 0 111 2010 2,441 6,406 38.1 2,633 6,406 41.1 0 .0 0 192 2011 2,452 6,498 37.7 2,756 6,498 42.4 0 .0 0 304 2012 2,475 6,543 37.8 2,930 6,543 44.8 0 .0 0 456 2013 2,544 6,686 38.1 3,439 6,686 51.4 0 .0 0 895 2014 2,574 6,782 37.9 3,592 6,782 53.0 0 .0 0 1,018 2015 2,613 6,880 38.0 3,769 6,880 54.8 0 .0 0 1,156 2016 2,732 6,979 39.1 3,982 6,979 57.1 0 .0 0 1,251 2017 2,781 7,080 39.3 4,239 7,080 59.9 0 .0 0 1,456 2018 2,688 7,182 40.2 4,457 7,182 62.1 0 .0,0 1,570 2019 2,968 7,286 40.7 4,724 7,286 64.8 0 .0 0 1,756 2020 3,091 7,390 41.8 5,557 7,390 75.2 0 .0 0 2,466--------------------....--_._--- 967 310.9 967 13,724 1 ,__CC 1 J ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY SUSITNA FI NANCIAL ANALYSIS COMPARISON OF RAILBELT COST OF ENERGY CASE 1:2 TCF GAS .....------- 20202015 ) .---------WITHOUT SUSITNA _.__.-WITH SUSITNA ----BASE CASE WITHOUT SUSITNA 201020052000 80 75 70 65 60 0: W 55~-0:1:a..~50t1.~ 0(1,) 45rrZ (l,)W 4000 0 -'Woe(35-'zlD-<~300:0 oe(za........25::E 0 0 20 15 10 5 0 1985 1990 1995 YEAR JUNE 1 2,1 985 WITH SUSITNA 1.TCF GAS ", sus 1:TNA POWER SALES ~EGOTI AT IONS,·rE ARS 1985-2000 ----GUnI~,.SOSlTNA SAsE FOR TAE ToTAL RAILBEL T REGION JOB NUMRER 23638 ~b104/85 06:33 A~ -----I~:O ON DATA PREP JOB 23SQa oATEo 06/04/as ************************************************************ *** TYPES 7-10 OpTMZING 0 lqQ2 1985 0 0 Iq8~ PCT TRIM 0 0 0 0 0 0 -~~0 ~q QQ3 1~1 36 356 q~SUM:1133 ***:******************************************************************** GENERATION SYSTEM -----~IUKE COAL NGAScT OIL cT olEsEL COMCve TYPE 1 2 3 4 5 6 --'------------------------------....T~O~T~AnL---- CAPA9. yEA R L Y M WAD 0 ITt 0 N S •TIES ********************* ******* *****************************--- 85 ."l""------ -"8b- -- 87--------231. ---- 88 --- eq-- -vg-- 45* 1177 t 171 132* 13u3 1303 13'51 1400 1358 1558 1383 1425 -------_.--_.-_...,-~----_. TYPES 7-10 *** ".~'lITH SUSITNA 1.TCF GAS SUSITNA POwER SALES NEGOTIATIONS,YEARS 1QQ'-Z020, _--~SOSI1NA BASE FOR THE ToTAL RAIL8ELT REGION, Joe NUMBER 36038 06/01/85 10:09 AM ----eASED ON DATA pqEp JOB 36611 ~ATED 06/01/SS *_:********************************************************** GENERATION SYSTEM ------mJKE COAL NGASCT OIL ocT DIESEL COMCTC TYPE 1 2 3 4 5 0 OPT~ZlNG 0 1990 1996 0 0 1996 peT TRIM 0 0 0 0 0 0 1995 iiir 0 13 _603 1 ~1 ~O 3'8 i 80 su~=1 Q~';) ***********************************************************************--ToTAL CAPAB. TR --y EAR l Y M WAD D I T ION S +TIES ********* ******* ******* ************************************ .~ ---'------------------------~~....-------- --------------------------------.."'T"'I'r__---- --vs--.....:..---------------------------------- --------------------------------------- ------------------------------~...,..,.r__---- :L -z--- _--'-----------------------------....:"""ll"'l::'"""---- 5 -r--- --------~---------------- IX 87 WITH SUSITNA 1.TCF GAS --------------------~------------~2r.2"q:r2,------ -1F£~~.******.*****i***.*i***i*********.*********j******ii****i*iiii *********************************************************************** ~~r--0 0 522 0 0 0 1570 S~q:2042 ~w RET 0 -48 -b03 -lqt -zo -358 -s 5U~:-1225 *****1:--0********w*.w*_.***_••w *_*.w****w**•••*w****w*w*w* 2020 0 25 522 0 0 0 17t45 SUPo\:22q2 (i"'"peT lOr-0.0 1.1 22.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 16.1 SOflll:l00 PCI 'I WITHOUT SUSITNA ",1.2 TCF GAS SUStTNA POWER SALES NEGOTIATIONS,·YEARS 1985-2000 --.;cITTS,THERMAL BASE FOR THE TOTAL.RAIL8EL T REGION JOB NUMBER 3248&00/04/85 08:5Q A~ BASED ON DATA PREo JOe 32450 DAlEO 0&/04/85 *~:************************************************.********* GENERATION SYSTE~ NUKE CO.L NGAScT OIL (T OIESEL COMCYC TYPE 1 2 3 4 5 0 OPTMZING 0 tqqZ tqe5 u 0 lq88 PCT TRIM 0 0 0 ~0 0 TYPES 7-10 *** - 1984 M~0 54 Q~3 lq7 36 358·45 SU~=1133 *********************************************************************** YR YEA R-~Y ~'"ADD I T 10"4 S +TIES ***•••*.******** **********.*••*.**********.*******.*.****** 1177 11bd t 171 1303 103"3 1351 87*--'-..,..-------------.......----------------...t."..4"Pl'O"Pl'O-- <>2 1358------------------------------------- 1558 --'-------------------------------1r"5'!"'SI5""'7'5-- 200*-------.......----------------------"'7M!!'-:::------45* .1&25 ____...c..."_._._~~.__---_ WITHOUT SUSITNA "1.2 TCF GAS SUSITNA POWER S~~ES NEGOTIATIONS,YEARS 1••'-2020 GUTS,THERMAL SASE FOR THE TOtAL RAtLBELT RE.ION JOB NUMBER 30250 0./01/85 01.23 AM BASED ON OAT4 PREP JOB .1019&.DAT£0 06/01/85 *****************,******************************************* GENERATION SYSTEM NUKE COAL NGASCT OIL CT DIESEL COMCYC TYPE 1 -2 3 4 5 .. OPTMZING 0 199b 1990 0 0 199& PCT TRI-"0 .,0 ..0 0 0 0 TYPES 7-10 *** j[ClC,s MW 0 273 003 191 26 lS8'180 SUM=1025 *********************************************************************** TuTAL CAPAS. 1tR 11l'* YEA R L Y.M WAD 0 I T ION ~+11E5 ********************************************************* 1424 lb21 1507 Ibl0 1580 152u 1120 1718 1713 1621 164·4 - ", WITHOUT SUSITNA 1.2 TCF GAS 1731 1731 168b 1686 1112 1840 1840 1840 1840 lQZJ .2127 **************~******************************************************** ii****i****************'***i*i**i*****ii********'*i***'**************** ~_ADO 0 1200 522 0 0 0 0 SU~=1722 -Ai RET 0 -48 -603 -191 -20 -558 0 SUA:-1220 ********************************************************* ~020 0 1425 522 0 0 U 180 SUM:2127 feT TOT 0.0 67.0 i4.5 0.0 C.O 0.0 8.5 SUM=100 PCT ~---------~"'" FUEL PRICE 1.2 'ICF GAS i F I I, r Natural Gas Natural Gas Natural Gas Fuel Price Analy.red Anchorage-Cook Inlet In 1996 Anchorage-North Slope In 1996 Beluga River-Cook Inlet In 1996 Replaces Base Analysis Fuel Anchorage-Cook Inlet In 1999 Anchorage-North Slope In 1999 Beluga River-Cook Inlet In 1999 -, ANCHORAGE -APA COOK Ir~LE T IN 19.96 NATURAL GAS ($/MMBTU) ~ NO~INAL REAL PRICE ~"Vt::AR PRICE (lNf--b.31 X) ******************** ()1qAS)($) 198':)2.000 2.000 1':18&2.150 2.28& 1987 ~.240 2.53~ 11186 ~.170 2.&01 19B~2.250 2.874 l~qO 2.3R2 3.234 1~91 ~.~21 3.&39 1992 2.b6~4.09S 1995 2..fl.?~4.&08 1'19£1 ~.qQO 5.1Ab ,~q,;j.16~5.63&tq<;l&3.350 &.567 1997 3.4 q l 7.2751q983.&38 tl.Or;9 1999 3.791 8.926 2000 3.950 9.8ClO 200~4.840 Ib.457 2010 5."130 27.37'-1 2(j1~&.8£)0 42.948 r-' I 2020 7.910 67.342i, r- I I, _--.R__-'-'--'-----'_ ., ANCHORA~E -APA NO~TH SLUPt IN 1996 ' NATuRAL GAS ($1 t.1 r~RTU) - 1qB~ 1480 1~B1 \G8g 1989 1'1QO \9Ql 1'~Q2 19q3 1'1Q4 19Q5 1996 1991 19qti 1q99 2'000 2005 ?010 2015 2020 REAL PRICE ******* ($198':i) 2.000 2.150 2.240 2.170 2.250 2.443 2.653 2.881 3.J29 3.3<:11 3.bfl,9 4.00b 4.350 4.':;35 4.129 4.q30 b.140 NOMINAL PRIC~ £1 NF-b.311) ******* ($) 2.000 2.2~b 2.~32 2.b(l7 2.874 3.3\0 3.830 4.421 ~.10q 'S.8q~ 6.802 7.853 q.06~ 10.048 11.131 12.345 20.871 ", =--C:~'l 1 1 1 1 1 1 J .._R_--- N lJ:I S'~I-PI t-3 c.nrn PI ::snCDI-'rn t'!j t-3 "<:1-'"Qg;rn rt G')1-'"1-'" PI PI rn <:rn G')I-'1-'" PI"<:::tIrtrnrng,,<: -1-'"rn tU til PI:t>ICD 11 ::s ::I PI PI rnaI-'1-'" It>"<rt rt rn 1-'- It>1-'"<: 11 rn 1-'"rn rt "< .' ...---,,--..--I >:>:>:>:>:>: -t--I I I I --I-----+__- >: ~+--------..-.-----I >:1 1999 Gas Peak ,.>:2 1996 Gas Peak---.---.-'..-~_.._-_.------.-.--.------.----..---I >:>:3 Ramped Gas Price I I I --+-I !+--I -~-i"-----.----l-- >:>:4 CEA-Enstar Gas Price ~->:j >:j >:t>:1_>:_1 >:t-..-----~~~--I---...:...:..-._...-~J ~~:.~~..~~~_~~~·=-_5.~·..~~~~·_·~~..~~---~i_~·~~-~~_·..~=._..__I ,>:>:6 Nenana 0 % 1--1--+I--I--I--il--+,-1---~----~----.-._..---------..._-._------'--....-..-.----.----.......---..-..--.----... ----+--r-~->:-----~--...--..-------.--.--..-.--..--~....Be~_':l:<Ja _.~?W c;.oal Pri_c.~_,,,,., t-_·---_.--··-·i~-~--r_-·-·-.-----..----.--..---.'..-.._-'".-~...f.1.~~~.l1.usk~__- , r"-~-~-tJ~t _~,,_---~:-=~~_-..-~__~...~~~~--=:~..~i~~::i'i::~fhi:~i!~'ji~,,~i'~n-l-Y-) I +~....__.__.------~}-..~i~-i!ii~~i~·:·~·..·~~?t~.>....--~ I~+t--r~=-=---=--=~~:==~==~L~K,,·,,:~;,~._... t::'·~::=·i+-'::~~=:><·~:~=--"-~-.....~.-"---i;-_.:~::~ei-~:·i;3rd.~~~!____I I '+4 +-------..--."....---.-..-------------.-.--.......'-".'....--..-.. LJI i !;>:16 Diamond Coa'l-----'-.........-..-........._-.~--......._._...~_., )1 J 1 .I 1 ~1 ,J ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY SUSITNA FINANCIAL ANALYSIS COMPARISON OF RAILBELT COST OF POWER ($QOO) CASE 2:LOW GAS PRICE 12-Jun-85 WITHOUT SUSITNA PAGE I OF 2 EXISTING ANNUAL CAPITAL COSTS OF NEN PLANT (I)COMPARABLE UTILITY -----------------------------------------------RENEWALS AND ENERGY COST or DEBT UTIL ITY LARGE BRADlEY REPLACEMENTS REQUIREMENTS POWER YEAR SERVICE (2)THERHAU3)THERHAL(4)LAKE(5)SUSITNA(6)FUEU7)0&14(8)(9)TOTAUI0)(GWH)(11)(C/KWHH 12) =========:========================~=============================-=====~====~=========================================================: 1985 24,638 1,974 0 0 0 47,700 23,100 °97,412 3,502 2.8 1986 24,692 2,289 0 ° ° 61,500 24,800 °113,281 3,767 3.0 1987 24,821 2,989 °0 0 69,700 26,600 0 124,110 3,938 3.2 1988 24,910 9,946 0 °°81,900 29,500 °146,256 4,106 3.6 1989 25,275 9,946 °0 0 100,100 31,500 0 166,821 4,269 3.9 1990 25,224 9,946 0 17,562 °98,300 34,200 484 185,716 4,446 4.2 1991 25,218 14,567 0 17,562 0 115,500 37,400 514 210,761 4,567 4.6 1992 25,214 14,567 0 17,562 °131,000 39,200 547 228,090 4,676 4.9 1993 25,196 14,567 0 17,562 0 148,000 41,800 581 247,706 4,781 5.2 1994 25,180 22,989 56,100 17,562 0 229,500 48,900 618 400,849 4,880 8.2 1995 25,179 22,989 56,100 21,862 0 266,100 52,100 657 444,987 4,981 8.9 1996 25,113 22,989 56,100 .21,862 °282,900 49,400 698 459,062 5,090 9.0 1997 24,874 22,989 56,100 21,862 0 315,200 53,700 742 495,467 5,203 9.5 1998 24,715 22,989 65,329 21,B62 °360,700 57,100 1,648 554,]43 5,317 10.4 1999 24,658 22,989 256,291 21,862 0 390,500 96,300 20,081 832,681 5,434 15.3 2000 24,425 22,989 266,721 21,862 °438,600 104,600 22,317 901,514 5,552 16.2 2001 22,014 22,989 482,541 21,862 0 442.000 154,500 44,4313 1,190,344 5,632 21.1 2002 22,009 22,989 482,541 21,862 0 503,400 155,000 47,238 1,255,039 5,713 22.0 2003 20,983 22.989 757,992 21,862 0 478,100 213,900 71.671 1,587,497 5,796 27.4 2004 20,970 22,989 757,992 21,862 °525,300 228,700 76,186 1,653,999 5,879 28.1 2005 20,910 22,989 757,992 21,862 0 583,200 242,500 80,986 1,730,439 5,964 29.0 2006 20,683 22,989 1,026,218 21,862 °570,400 302,100 111,833 2,076,085 6,050 34.3 2007 20,666 22,989 1,042,226 21,862 0 634,400 323,300 120,369 2,185,811 6,136 35.6 2008 20,651 22,989 1,042,226 21,862 °710,500 343,400 127,952 2,289,579 6,225 36.8 2009 20,635 22,989 1,042,226 21,862 0 780,300 367,500 136,013 2,391,524 6,315 37.9 2010 20,619 22,989 1,061,459 21,862 °872,000 393,300 146,372 2,538,601 6,406 39.6 2011 20,597 22,989 1,061,459 21,862 °970,000 420,900 155,593 2,673,400 6,498 41.1 2012 20,588 22,989 1,443,313 21,862 °932,500 521,200 202,047 3,164,499 6,543 48.4 2013 14,898 22,989 1,443,313 21,862 0 1.024,700 550,600 214,776 3,293,138 6.686 49.3 2014 12,637 22,989 1,443,313 21.862 0 1,138,000 585,500 228,307 3.452.608 6.782 50.9 2015 12.637 22.989 1,443,313 21,862 °1,254,000 627,000 242,690 3,624.491 6,880 52.7 2016 12,637 22,989 1,443,313 21,862 0 1.390,700 666,600 257,979 3,816,081 6.979 54.7 2017 12,637 22,989 1,957,822 21,862 0 1,360,200 812,000 323,616 4,511,127 7,080 63.7 2018 12.637 22,989 1,957,822 21,862 0 1,517 ,000 864,500 344,004 4,740,814 7.182 66.0 2019 12,637 22,989 1,957.822 21,862 0 1,666,100 920.300 365,676 4,967,387 7.286 68.2 2020 12,637 22,989 1.957,822 21,862 0 1.829,100 979,400 388,714 5.212.524 7.390 70.5 CUMULATIVE PRESENT WORTH OF TOTAL COSTS (1985-2020)6.334,545 1 J -)!)--j ··~~1 1 -j 1 j 1 ALASKA POWER AUTHOR lTV SUSITNA FINANCIAL ANALYSIS COMPARISON OF RAIL8ELT COST OF POWER ($000) CASE 2:LOW GAS PRICE 12-Jun-85 WlTH SUS lTNA PAGE 2 OF 2 EX1STlNG ANNUAL CAPITAL COSTS OF NEW PLANT (1)COMPARABlE UTILITY -----------------------------------------------RENEWALS ANO ENERGY COST OF DEBT UTILITY LARGE BRADLEY REPLACEMENTS REQUIREMENTS POWER YEAR SERVICE (2)THERHAL(3)n£RMAL(4)LAKE(5)sus I TNII(6)FUEU7>0&H(8)(9)TOTAL<10)(GWHH 11)(C/KWHH 12) ===::=~===::=====_===:::=========~2:==~======z:=========================================:=============================z===========:a= 1985 24,638 1,974 0 0 0 47,700 23,100 0 97,412 3,502 2.8 1986 24,692 2,289 0 0 0 61,500 24,800 °113,281 3,767 3.0 1987 24,821 2,989 0 °0 69,700 26,600 0 124,110 3,938 3.2 1988 24,910 9,946 0 0 °81,900 29,500 °146,256 4,106 3.6 1989 25,275 9,946 °0 0 100,100 31,500 °166,821 4,269 3.9 1990 25,224 9,946 0 17,562 0 98,300 34,200 484 '185,716 4,446 4.2 1991 25,218 14,567 0 17,562 0 115,500 37,400 514 210,761 4,567 4.6 1992 25,214 14,567 0 17,562 0 131,000 39,200 547 228,090 4,676 4.9 1993 25,196 14,567 0 17,562 0 148,000 41,800 581 247,706 4,781 5.2 1994 25,180 17,783 0 17,562 °250,400 48,000 618 359,543 4,880 7.4 1995 25,179 17,783 °21,862 °290,700 51,100 657 407,281 4,981 8.2 1996 25,113 17,783 0 21,862 728,000 141,900 61,700 25,598 1,021,956 5,090 20.1 1997 24,874 17,783 0 21,862 766,000 162,100 64,800 27,211 1,084,630 5,203 20.8 1998 24,715 17,783 0 21,862 766,000 188,200 68,000 28,925 1,115,485 5,317 21.0 1999 24,658 17,783 0 21,862 766,000 228,300 68,600 30,748 1,157,951 5,434 21.3 2000 24,425 17,783 0 21,862 766,000 265,100 70,200 32,685 1,198,055 5,552 21.6 2001 22,014 17,783 0 21,862 766,000 306,000 74,200 34,744 1,242,603 5,632 22.1 2002 22,009 17,783 0 21,862 1,351,000 70,000 68,300 57,033 1,607,987 5,713 28.1 2003 20,983 17,783 0 21,862 1,384,000 79,100 71,900 60,626 1,656,254 5,796 28.6 2004 20,970 17,783 0 21,862 1,384,000 95,000 77 ,500 64,445 1,681,560 5,879 28.6 2005 20,910 17,783 0 21,862 1,384,000 112,900 81,500 68,505 1,707,460 5,964 28.6 2006 20,683 17,783 0 21,862 1,384,000 151,000 67,600 72,821 1,735,749 6,050 28.7 2007 20,666 17,783 0 21,862 1,384,000 177,400 70,500 77,409 1,769,620 6,136 28.8 2008 20,651 17,783 0 21,862 2,119,000 0 70,800 107,186 2,357,282 6,225 37.9 2009 20,635 17,783 0 21,862 2,150,000 0 70,700 113,938 2,394,918 6,315 37.9 2010 20,619 17,783 19,233 21,862 2,150,000 9,100 76,200 122,907 2,437,704 6,406 38.1 2011 20,597 17,783 19,233 21,862 2,150,000 9,900 78,900 130,650 2,448,925 6,498 37.7 2012 20,588 17,783 19,233 21,862 2,150,000 17,700 85,100 138,881 2,471,147 6,543 37.8 2013 14,898 17,783 65,450 21,862 2,150,000 22,900 91,800 151,933 2,536,626 6,686 37.9 2014 12,637 17,783 65,450 21,862 2,150,000 37,100 99,000 161,505 2,565,337 6,782 37.8 2015 12,637 17,783 65,450 21,862 2,150,000 53,400 106,700 171,679 2,599,512 6,880 37.8 2016 12,637 17,783 120,980 21,862 2,150,000 71,900 115,100 187,665 2,697,927 6,979 38.7 2017 12,637 17,783 120,980 21,862 2,150,000 98,300 124,100 199,488 2,745,150 7,080 38.8 2018 12,637 17,783 152,359 21,862 2,150,000 133,900 133,900 214,976 2,837,418 7,182 39.5 2019 12,637 17,783 152,359 21,862 2,150,000 174,400 144,400 228,520 2,901,961 7,286 39.8 2020 12,637 17.783 152,359 21,862 2,150,000 246,500 155,700 242,917 2,999,758 7,390 40.6 CUMUlATIVE PRESENT WORTH or TOTAL COSTS (1985-2020>6,376,358 12-Jun }1 1 1 J 1 Cl J Int,r,.t Eirnings A~nu=! S...i-annual 11.00 5.36 SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT RATE STABAl!ZATION ANALYSIS UTILITY LOAD FORECASTS CASE 2:LUN GAS PRiCE WlTH SUS lTNA THERMAL ALTERNATIVE RATE STABILIZATION ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------TOTAL SYSTEM TOTAL TOTAL SYSTEM TOTAL ACCRUED SYSTEM ENERGY SYSTEM SYSTEM ENERGY SYSTEM REO.STATE STATE REO. COSTS SALES COSTS COSTS SALES COSTS SUBSIDY CONTRIB.CONTRIB.SUBSIDY SAVINGS CY (.MIL>(GWh)(c/kWh)(t MIL>(GWh)(c/kWh)($MIL>($MIL>($MIL>(.MIL>($MIL>-------------------------..._--------------....----_.....------------------------------------ 1985 97 3,502 2.8 97 3,502 2.8 100.0 100.0 1986 113 3,767 3.0 113 3,767 3.0 34 200.0 266.2 1987 124 3,938 3.2 124 3,938 3.2 22 200.0 494.7 1988 146 4,106 3.6 146 4,106 3.6 9 200.0 761.7 198~167 4,269 3.9 167 4,269 3.9 -64 200.0 1135.3 1990 186 4,446 4.2 186 4,446 4.2 15.3 1277.2 1991 211 4,567 4.6 211 4,567 4.6 0.0 1417.7 1992 228 4,676 4.9 228 4,676 4.9 0.0 1573.6 1993 248 4,781 5.2 248 4,781 5.2 0.0 1746.7 1994 360 4,880 7.4 401 4,880 8.2 0.0 1938.9 1~5 407 4,981 8.2 445 4,981 8.9 0.0 2152.2 1996 1,022 5,090 20.1 459 5,090 9.0 563 0.0 1795.9 563 0 1~7 1,085 5,203 20.8 496 5,203 9.5 589 1372.7 589 0 1998 1,116 5,317 21.0 554 5,317 10.4 561 932.5 561 0 1~9 1,158 5,434 21.3 833 5,434 15.3 325 692.3 325 0 2000 1,198 5,552 21.6 902 5,552 16.2 297 456.0 297 0 2001 1,243 5,632 22.1 1,190 5,632 21.1 52 451.1 52 0 2002 1,608 5,713 28.1 1,255 5,713 22.0 353 128.8 353 0 2003 1,656 5,796 28.6 1,588 5,796 27.4 69 70.4 69 0 2004 1,682 5,879 28.6 1,654 5,87~28.1 28 49.1 28 0 2005 1,708 5,964 28.6 1,730 5,964 29.0 0 54.5 0 23 2006 1,736 6,050 28.7 2,076 6,050 34.3 0 60.5 0 340 2007 1,770 6,136 28.8 2,186 6,136 35.6 0 67.2 0 416 2008 2,357 6,225 37.9 2,290 6,225 36.8 68 3.2 68 0 2009 2,395 6,315 37.9 2,392 6,315 37.9 3 .0 3 0 2010 2,438 6,406 38.1 2,539 6,406 39.6 0 .0 0 101 2011 2,449 6,498 37.7 2,673 6,4S!41.1 0 .0 0 225 2012 2,471 6,543 37.8 3,165 6,543 48.4 0 .0 0 693 2013 2,537 6,686 37.9 3,293 6,686 49.3 0 .0 0 757 2014 2,565 6,782 37.8 3,453 6,782 50.9 0 .0 0 887 2015 2,600 6,880 37.8 3,625 6,880 52.7 0 .0 0 1,025 2016 2,698 6,979 38.7 3,816 6,979 54.7 0 .0 0 1,118 2017 2,745 7,080 38.8 4,511 7,080 63.7 0 .0 0 1,766 2018 2,837 7,182 39.5 4,741 7,182 66.0 0 .Ct 0 1,903 2019 2,902 7,286 39.8 4,967 7,286 68.2 0 .0 0 2,065 2020 3,000 7,390 40.6 5,213 7,390 70.5 0 .0 0 2,213 -----.....---------------------- 2908 915.3 2,908 13,533 1 1 I )'1 J }l J 1 1 1 AI A~VA Or'\\A/EO AI1TUORITVnLon...,,,"I v',11 U I n I I , SUSITNA FINANCIAL ANALYSIS COMPARISON OF RAILBELT COST OF ENERGY CASE 2:LOW GAS PRICE -_.--.~---.---.----........ ~- - - ---_.WITHOUT SUSITNA _.__.-WITH SUSITNA ----BASE CASE WITHOUT SUSITNA 20202015 , ......" ............_...... 201020052000 80 75 70 65 60a: W 55;:-0:1:0..;:50u..~0(1) 45t- t-z (l)W 00 40 0 -J We(35-JZ '0- <C::E 30a:o e(z0..-25::E 0 0 20 15 10 5 0 1 985 1990 1995 YEAR JUNE 12,1985 TYPES 7-10 *** "... WITH SUSITNA .,2.LOW GAS PRICE SUSITNA POWER SALES ~EGOTIAtIONS,'EARS 1'15-2000 ----,;U'T'S"lh SUSlrNI BASE FOR THE fOTll RIIL8ELT RE;IO,..Joe NUMAER 23638 06/0./85 06133 AM -~~)oN DATA PREP J08 235qa oiT£o 06,04785 ****,t*******************************************************---,---------------------------------- GENERATION SYSTEM NUKE toil NGistT OIL cT DIESEL coReft TYPE 1 2 3 0 5 6 ~ZING 0 IqQZ 1485 0 0 1488 PCT TRIM 0 0 0 0 0 0 ~q84~0 ~4 44~1~1 ~&358 45 ~u~=11)~ .******It***************************************************************----.TotAL CAPAB. ~R --,E I R l ,M WID D ITt a N S +TIES ***~*******************************-**************-*-****** 45* 1177 116d 1171 132' 1.303 1303 90"; 1351 1400 1358 1558 1383 111ZS TYPES 7-10 *** - ·WITH SUSITNA '2.LOW GAS PRICE SUSIT~A PO~ER SALES NEGOTIATIONS,YEARS lQQ6-Z020, ----,~,SUSITNA eASE FOR THE TOTAL RAtLBELT REGION, JOB NUMBER 42276 06/03/85 11:44 A~ BASED ON DATA PREP JOB 42255 DATED 06/03/85 ************************************************************-------------------------- GENERATION SYSTE~ NUKE COAL NGAScT OIL CT DIESEL COMCYC TYPE~1 ---2 3 4 5 0 -~M~G 0 1440 144b 0 0 lqqb PCT TRIM 0---0 0 0 0 0 -194~~w 0 73 003 191 20 358 180 SUM:14c5 ***i~*************~***_***********************************************--TuT4L CAPAI3.-Vir ** YEA R L Y M ~ADD I T I 0 ~S +TIES ************-*********************-********************** ", WITH SUSITNA 2.LOW GAS PRICE ****~r**************~*************************************************** ****it**************.************.******_********.********************** fiiW""i[IO 0 0 522 0 0 0 157(\SUJoI:20Q2 ~"RET 0 ·~8 -b03 -lql -20 -358 -5 Sli~:-1225 ****'IInt ****************************** ********************* 2020 0 25 522 0 0 0 1745 SUM:c2Q2 peT TOT 0.0 1.1 22.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 7~.1 SU M:l00 peT WITHOUT SUSITNA .2.LOW GAS PRICE SUSITNA PO~ER SALES NEGOTIATIONS,YEARS 1"5-2000 -----;~e,'HERMAL LOW GAS FOR IHE Tu'I'HAlLIEt'REGIoN. JOB NUMBER 45013 0&/03/85 12'29 PM """-----s"Q£1)ON DA'A PREP J08 44913 DITED 06'037'5 ****It************************.****************.************* TYPES 7-10 i** GENERATION SYSTEM ~JKE eOA'NGASeT OIL tT DIESEL COMCTC TYPE 1 2 3 4 5 • -'nrrMLTm~0 199i 1985 0 0 1981-peT TRIM 0 0 0 0 0 0 1964-g'"0 54 443 1'"36 "'0 4~SOMa 1133 *******1'*****.*********************************************************,....----10lAL CAPAB. ~R ~,EAR L ,III "ADD 1 T ION S •f lES *****.******~**************** ***************************** 11 1400 135&---,--------------------------------- 1358 14 ----25------------.,;=---------------.....,C!~2"l:19~*~--------- 143. «J5----'-------------------------"'lII4r1l5r.i*;-------- 1480 WITHOUT SUSITNA "2.LOW GAS PRICE ---(;UT'4~,THERMAL U ..GAS PRICE fOt<THE TOTAL RlILBELf REG. JOB NUMBER 32082 Obl04/85 08:54 AM ----~~D ON DATA PREP J08 32078 DATED 06704785 ***ft**********************~*********************************------------------------------------- GENERATION SYSTEM---~WKE COA'NGASCT OIL C"r DIESEL COMCYC .TYPE'S TYPE 1 2 3 4 5 6 7-10 -~MZING 0 19q6 19q6 0 0 lq96 *** PCT TRIM 0 0 0 0 0 0 -~~0 -13 4~q 191 ~o 5lH 160 SOM=1480 ***********************************************************************-------ToTAL CAPA~. -"YR YEA R----L=t-A W A 0 0 I T I a N s +TIE 5 **~I******************************************************** 1 IX 87 " WITHOUT SUSITNA 2.LOW GAS PRICE 1073 1013 1715 1715 1162 178~ 1 'H2 1782 1 Qp·2 1482 -------lQP2 ***********************************************-*******************-***-ili'"F£t--;nnF""*********.***************************************ii ••*_i.i***i Mt4 A,OD 0 1200 3l.t8 0 0 0 0 SUM:1548 iFl'firR"FI j)-48 -42'1 -191 -20 -358 0 SO~l:-lli46 't*****'If**************************************************-zuco-0 1225 348 0 0 224 180 ~U'VI:1402 peT ToT.0.0 6"1.8 17.6 0.0 0.0 11.0 q.1 SU~=l"O peT i~ -_._-------------------.....-=------, FUEL PRICE 2.IDW GAS PRICE Natural Gas Natural Gas Natural Gas Fuel Price Analyzed Anchorage Anchorage Beluga River-Anchorage Replaces Basic -Analysis Fuel Anchorage-Cook Inlet In 1999 Anchorage-North Slope In 1999 Beluga River-cook Inlet In 1999 ., ANCHORAGE NATURAL GAS ($/r",..,61 U) NOt-HNAL WEAL PRICE:. YEAR PRICE.(INF-b.311) ******************** ($lq8~)(S) 1985 2.000 2.000 lY8e,~.150 2.28b .-1981 2.240 2.~32 1';88 2.170 2.b07 1118'1 2.2~O 2.d74 1990 ~.334 3.1b~ 1yQ 1 2.420 3.494 19q2 2.~10 3.85~ t9q3 2.603 4.247-P/qq 2.700 4.bR.s 19Q ';)2.8{\O ~.163 19 9 b 2.1104 5.b02 19q1 3.011 b.27'::1 19qti 3.122 6.917 l~qq 3.238 7.026 2000 3.357 8.406 2UO~4.026 13.688 2010 4.827 22.2Rb 201S 5.788 3b.287 2020 6.9 4 0 59.t'83 "'"'" ". 8ELUGA RIVtR -ANCHORAGE NATURAL GAS ($/foJ·MBTU) ;ftJl!m,NUMINAL HEAL PRICE: YEA~PRICE (INF-o.31 ~) ******************** ($1985)(S) 1985 0.240 0.240 1980 0.240 0.240 1~87 0.240 0.240 1988 0.300 0.3(10 1~89 0.300 0.300 1990 0.320 0.310 1991 0.310 0.310 lqq2 0.320 0.320 1':lQ3 0.320 0.320 1994 2.700 4.083 1995 2.800 5.163 1990 2.90Q ~.692 1'~97 .5.011 0.27~ ~,19'18 3.122 b.cH 7 1999 .5.23ts 7.620 2000 3.357 8.407 ,.... 2005 4.02b 13.b8ij 2010 4.827 22.287 .2ul S 5.788 3&.287 2020 0.940 59.0RlI .... ,~~. " ,~ Sensitivity Analysis Parameters I Sensitivity Analysis Run I I Base Analysis (5 TCF Gas) !2 TCF Gasi !Low Gas Price I 1 2 X I !!I,i ;\! .:i :! !X·I xi!':xl I :!x ; Ii!t 1;'i I ! xl X I X I \::X l I 1 X ; xl X!!i;xT·!i I xi Low Gas &Coal Price 3 I I I ..(IIxlIxixi i I!:Xi x X I ,I !I !!--- No Coal Export 9 X j X X I I ~X I X;! Low Finance 5 I r 1···'I i'j"I il lx 'I,:I I;,IxlXI.XI !X!X ~----------+--t--+-t--+......,t--t--l--+--+---r--+-+--+-+---4-~--4IX X II ,:I X !I xi I I I i r :I 'II-L-O-W--I-n-f-l-a-t-i'o--n---I--6-+--1--+-+--+-!--i-~I~-I!-i i x:---riT'1 -. X X X I I ,I :I ' I-+-++-+_e-.+-+--t--+-- Matanuska 7 X!X I X I I XI I Xl :I Xl Il-----------I--+---I-I-+--i-I-+-!--+-I---I;-+:H---1-t~--r-- Phase I 8 X!X ,X I j X i I Xl X i ._--I Low Coal Price i with Diamond I Plant 4 Keetna jllO X \. X X I I j X II \X X\,I L.---"-_.l---J,.'_.j..i!_.l-~_L-i'_L-~--J...'---L--ll---..L..'_-l._l-...1--l__ - -1 1 ..J -).]}1 .~..)-]~l )J J )1 ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY .SUSITNA FINANCIAL ANALYSIS COMPARISON or RAILBELT COST or POWER ($QOO) CASE 3:LOW GAS AND COAL PRICE 12-Jun-85 WITHOUT SUS ITNA PAGE I or 2 EXISTING ANNUAL CAPITAl COSTS OF NEW PLANT (I)COHPARABLE UTILITY -----------------------------------------------RENEWALS AND ENERGY COST OF" DE8T UTILITY'LARGE BRADLEY REPLACEHENTS REQUIREMENTS POWER YEAR SERVICE (2)THERHAL(3)THERHAU4)LAKE(5)SUSITNA(6)rUEU7>0&H(8)(9)TOTAU 10)(GWH)(II)(C/Kt'H<12) ========~===:=~===============R============_.:===================== ==========================================================~=====a. 1985 24,638 1,974 0 0 0 47,700 23,100 0 97,412 3,502 2.8 1986 24,692 2,289 0 0 0 61,500 24,800 0 113,281 3,767 3.0 1987 24,821 2,989 0 0 0 69,700 26,600 0 124,110 3,938 3.2 1988 24,910 9,946 0 0 0 81,900 29,500 0 146,256 4,106 3.6 1989 25,275 9,946 0 0 0 100,100 31,500 0 166,821 4,269 3.9 1990 25,224 9,946 0 17,562 0 98,300 34,200 484 185,716 4,446 4.2 1991 25,218 14,567 0 17,562 0 115,500 37,400 514 210,761 4,567 4.6 1992 25,214 14,567 115,138 17,562 0 118,400 64,400 12,596 427,877 4,676 9.1 1993 25,196 14,567 175,138 17,562 0 132,700 68,400 13,389 446,953 4,781 9.3 1994 25,180 17,783 175,138 17,562 0 225,100 77,700 14,233 552,696 4,880 11.3 1995 25,179 17,783 175,138 21,862 0 257,500 82,400 15,130 594,992 4,981 11.9 1996 25,113 17,783 175,138 21,862 0 271,500 82,300 16,083 609,779 5,090 12.0 1997 24,874 17,783 344,106 21,862 0 268,300 121,800 33,314 832,040 5,203 16.0 1998 24,715 17,783 344,106 21,862 0 297,500 129,900 35,413 871,279 5,317 16.4 1999 24,658 17,783 563,166 21,862 0 271,800 170,200 54,773 1,124,242 5,434 20.7 2000 24,425 17,783 563,166 21,862 0 305,300 182,000 58,224 1,172,760 5,552)21.1 2001 22,014 17,783 563,166 21,862 0 338,500 193,200 61,892 1,218,417 5,632 21.6 2002 22,009 17,783 773,443 21,862 0 301,700 236,700 85,974 '1,459,471 5,713 25.5 2003 20,983 17,783 773,443 21,862 0 330,700 253,400 91,390 1,509,561 5,796 26.0 2004 20,970 17,783 773,443 21,862 0 366,400 269,400 97,148 1,567,006 5,879 26.7 2005 20,910 17,783 773,443 21,862 0 401,400 288,500 103,268 1,627,136 5,964 27.3 2006 20,683 17,783 1,041,669 21,862 0 372,000 344,900 135,519 1,954,416 6,050 32.3 2007 20,666 17,783 1,057,677 21,862 0 410,800 369,500 145,547 2,043,834 6,136 33.3 2008 20,651 17,783 1,074,694 21,862 0 453,600 395,900 156,300 2,140,791 6,225 34.4 2009 20,635 17,783 1,092,786 21,862 0 494,800 421,300 167,832 2,236,998 6,315 35.4 2010 20,619 17,783 1,092,786 21,862 0 551,900 448,200 178,405 2,331,555 6,406 36.4 2011 20,597 17,783 1,092,786 21,862 0 608,300 476,800 189,645 2,427,772 6,498 37.4 2012 20,588 17,783 1,114,523 21,862 0 680,800 514,100 203,616 2,573,272 6,543 39.3 2013 14,898 17,783 1,520,472 21,862 0 615,600 615,600 255,407 3,061,622 6,686 45.8 2014 12,637 17,783 1,520,472 21,862 0 676,200 655,600 271,498 3,176,052 6,782 46.8 2015 12,637 17,783 1,520,472 21,862 0 747,100 702,600 288,603 3,311,056 6,880 48.1 2016 12,637 17,783 1,548,236 21,862 0 820,000 743,300 309,369 3,473,188 6,979 49.8 2017 12,637 17,783 1,577,753 21,862 0 910,200 801,600 331,607 3,673,442 7,080 51.9 2018 12,637 17,783 1,577,753 21,862 0 998,300 853,300 352,499 3,834,134 7,182 53.4 2019 12,637 17 ,'783 1,577,753 21,862 0 1,118,800 908,200 374,706 4,031,741 7,286 55.3 2020 12,637 17,783 1,577,753 21,862 0 1,245,300 972,900 398,312 4,246,548 7,390 57.5 CUMULATIVE PRESENT WORTH or TOTAL COSTS (1985-2020)6,647,474 J 1 J '. )"")1 -"-J --]--~"~--j C"---l ~1 1 j j ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY SUSITNA FINANCIAL ANALYSIS COHPARISON or RAILBELT COST or POWER ($000) CASE 3:LOW GAS AND COAL PRICE 12-Jlln-85 WlTH SUS lTNA PAGE 2 or 2 EXISTING ANNUAL CAPITAL COSTS or NEW PLANT (I)COMPARABlE UTILI TY -----------------------------------------------RENEWALS AND ENERGY COST or DEBT UTILITY LARGE BRADLEY REPLACEMENTS REQUI REHENTS POWER YEAR SERVICE (2)THERHAL(3)THERHAL(4)LAKE(5)SUS lTNA<6)FUEU7>0&H(8)(9)TOTAL<10)(GWHl<II)(C/KWH)(12) ==~===============~===================================== ============::===:=============== =================~========================== 1985 24,638 1,974 °0 0 47,700 23,100 0 97,412 3,502 2.8 1986 24,6'32 2,289 0 0 0 61.500 24,800 0 113,281 3,767 3.0 1987 24,821 2,989 0 0 0 69,700 26,600 0 124,110 3,'338 3.2 1988 24,910 9,946 0 0 0 81,900 29,500 0 146,256 4,106 3.6 1989 25,275 9,946 0 0 0 100,100 31,500 0 166,821 4,269 3.9 1990 25,224 9,946 0 17,562 0 98,300 34,200 484 185,116 4,446 4.2 1991 25,218 14,567 0 17,562 0 115,500 37,400 514 210,761 4,567 4.6 1992 25,214 14,567 0 17,562 0 131,000 39,200 547 228,090 4,676 4.9 1993 25,196 14,567 0 17,562 0 148,000 41,800 581 247,706 4,781 5.2 1994 25,180 17,783 0 17,562 0 250,400 48,000 618 35'3,543 4,880 7.4 1995 25,179 17,783 0 21,B62 0 290,700 51,100 657 407,281 4,981 8.2 1996 25,113 17,783 0 21,862 728,000 141,900 61,700 25,598 1,021,956 5,090 20.1 1997 24,874 17,783 0 21,862 766,000 162,100 64,800 27,211 1,084,630 5,203 20.8 1998 24,715 17,783 0 21,862 766,000 188,200 68,000 28,925 1,115,485 5,317 21.0 1999 24,658 17,783 0 21,862 766,000 228,300 68,600 30,748 1,157,951 5,434 21.3 2000 24,425 17,783 °21,862 766,000 265,100 70,200 32,685 1,198,055 5,552 .21.6 2001 22,014 17,783 0 21,862 766,000 306,000 74,200 34,744 1,242,603 5,632 22.1 2002 22,009 17,783 0 21,862 1,351,000 70,000 68,300 57,033 1,607,987 5,713 28.1 2003 20,983 17,783 0 21,862 1,384,000 79,100 71,900 60,626 1,656,254 5,796 28.6 2004 20,970 17,783 0 21,862 1,384,000 95,000 17,500 64,445 1,681,560 5,879 28.6 2005 20,910 17,783 0 21,862 1,384,000 112,900 81,500 68,505 1,707,460 5,964 28.6 2006 20,683 17,783 0 21,862 1,384,000 151,000 67,600 72,821 1,735,749 6,050 28.7 2007 20,666 17,783 0 21,862 1,384,000 117,400 70,500 77,409 1,769,620 6,136 28.8 2008 20,651 17,783 0 21,862 2,119,000 0 70,800 107,186 2,357,282 6,225 37.9 2009 20,635 17,783 0 21,862 2,150,000 0 70,700 113,938 2,3'34,918 6,315 37.9 2010 20,619 17,783 19,233 21,862 2,150,000 9,100 76,200 122,907 2,437,704 6,406 38.1 2011 20,597 17,783 19,233 21,862 2,150,000 9,900 78,900 130,650 2,448,925 6,498 37.7 2012 20,588 17,783 19,233 21,862 2,150,000 17,700 85,100 138,881 2,471,147 6,543 37.8 2013 14,898 17,783 65,450 21,862 2,150,000 22,900 91,800 151,933 2,536,626 6,686 37.9 2014 I 12,637 17,783 65,450 21,862 2,150,000 37,100 99,000 161,505 2,565,337 6,782 37.8 2015 12,637 t7,783 65,450 21,862 2,150,000 53,400 106,700 171,679 2,599,512 6,880 37.8 2016 12,637 17,783 120,980 21,862 2,150,000 71,900 115,100 187,665 2,697,927 6,979 38.7 2017 12,637 17,783 120,980 21,862 2,150,000 98,300 124,100 199,488 2,745,150.7,080 38.8 2018 12,637 17,783 152,359 21,862 2,150,000 133,900 133,900 214,976 2,837,418 7,182 39.5 2019 12,637 17,783 152,359 21,862 2,150,000 174,400 144,400 228,520 2,901,961 7,286 39.8 2020 12,637 17,783 152,359 21,862 2,150,000 246,500 155,700 242,917 2,999,758 7,390 40.6 CUMUlATIVE PRESENT WORTH or TOTAL COSTS (1985-2020)6,376,358 J 12-Jun -1 1 1 1 ,.>---'1 )-1 )] Intere.t Eernings Ar:nt=:! S.",j-ennuel !!.00 5.36 SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT RATE STABAllZATION ANALYSIS UTILITV LOAD FORECASTS CASE 3:lOW GAS A~~COAL PRiCE WITH SUSITNA THERMAL ALTERNATIVE RATE STABILIZATION ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------TOTAL SYSTEM TOTAL TOTAL SYSTEM TOTAL ACCRUED SYSTEM ENERGY SYSTEM SYSTEM ENERGY SYSTEM REQ.STATE STATE REQ. COSTS SALES COSTS COSTS SALES COSTS SUBSIDY CONTRIB.CONTRIB.SUBSIDY SAVINGS CY ($Mill (GWh)(c/kWh)(t HIll (GWh)(c/kWh)($Mill ($Mill ($Mill ($Mill ($Mill----------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------- 1985 97 3,502 2.8 97 3,502 2.8 100.0 100.0 1986 113 3,767 3.0 113 3,767 3.0 34 200.0 266.2 1987 124 3,938 3.2 124 3,938 3.2 22 178.6 471.0 1988 146 4,106 3.6 146 4,106 3.6 9 0.0 513.3 1989 167 4,269 3.9 167 4,269 3.9 -64 0.0 637.6 1990 186 4,446 4.2 186 4,446 4.2 0.0 707.7 1991 211 4,567 4.6 211 4,567 4.6 0.0 785.6 1992 228 4,676 4.9 428 4,676 9.2 0.0 872.0 1993 248 4,781 5.2 447 4,781 9.3 0.0 967.9 1994 360 4,880 7.4 553 4,880 11.3 0.0 1074.4 1995 401 4,981 8.2 595 4,981 11.9 0.0 1192.6 1996 1,022 5,090 20.1 610 5,090 12.0 412 0.0 889.5 412 0 1997 1,085 5,203 20.8 832 5,203 16.0 253 721.2 253 0 1998 1,116 5,317 21.0 871 5,317 16.4 244 543.2 244 0 1999 1,158 5,434 21.3 1,124 5,434 20.7 34 567.4 34 0 2000 1,198 5,552 21.6 1,173 5,552 21.1 25 603.1 25 0 2001 1,243 5,632 22.1 1,218 5,632 21.6 24 644.0 24 0 2002 1,608 5,713 28.1 1,460 5,713 25.5 149 558.4 149 0 2003 1,656 5,796 28.6 1,510 5,796 26.0 147 465.2 147 0 2004 1,682 5,879 28.6 1,567 5,879 26.7 115 395.7 115 0 2005 1,708 5,964 28.6 1,627 5,964 27.3 80 354.6 80 0 2006 1,736 6,050 28.7 1,954 6,050 32.3 0 393.6 0 219 2007 1,770 ·6,136 28.8 2,044 6,136 33.3 0 436.9 0 274 2008 2,357 6,225 37.9 2,141 6,225 34.4 217 256.9 217 0 2009 2,395 6,315 37.9 2,237 6,315 35.4 158 \118.8 158 0 2010 2,438 6,406 38 ••2,332 6,406 36.4 106 20.0 106 0 2011 2,449 6,498 37.7 2,428 6,498 37.4 .21 .0 21 0 2012 2,471 6,543 37.8 2,573 6,543 39.3 0 .0 0 102 2013 2,537 6,686 37.9 3,062 6,686 45.8 0 .0 0 525 2014 2,565 6,782 37.8 3,176 6,782 46.8 0 .0 0 611 2015 2,600 6,880 37.8 3,311 6,880 48.1 0 .0 0 712 2016 2,698 6,979 38.7 3,473 6,979 49.8 0 .0 0 775 2017 2,745 7,080 38.8 3,673 7,080 51.9 0 .0 0 928 2018 2,837 7,182 39.5 3,834 7,182 53.4 0 .0.0 997 2019 2,902 7,286 39.8 4,032 7,286 55.3 0 .0 0 1,130 2020 3,000 7,390 40.6 4,247 7,390 57.5 0 .0 0 1,247----------------------_....---- 1984 478.6 1,984 7,519 l ?D '))j -.J 1 ~l J\I J\cKA On\A/C 0 It.11TH.AOITVn,-nul ,v',L.1l MU''unt t T SUSITNA FINANCIAL ANALYSIS COMPARISON OF RAILBELT COST OF ENERGY CASE 3:LOW GAS AND COAL PRICE 20202015 - - - - - - - - -WITHOUT SUSITNA -'-'-'-WITH SUSITNA ----BASE CASE WITHOUT SUSITNA 2010 ,~ "",,~" "",,, ,-~~"'~,,, ~,r--,"..._..",.,A..--------.f ~~~~~~---'--- ,-----,_,_..-1 2005 r'T""------=-~1._""-----.~. 20001995 ,',,-,,"L.1, 1990 80 75 70 65 60 0:w 553:-o::C0...3:50:::.:=u..", oen 45t- t-zenw 4000 o...J 35w<...Jz (1)-<:::i 300:0<z0...-25~ 0 0 20 15 10 5 0 1985 YEAR JUNE 1 2,1 985 WITH SUSITNA 3.-'LOW GAS &COAL PRICE SUSITNA POWER SALES ~EGOTIltIONS,·YEAAS 1'15-2000 ---~nrtfi·SOSlTNI 8isE FOR tHE fOTll RlllBElT R£;10k JOB NUMREA 23638 06/04/85 06:33 AM ----enr!EOloN DATA pREP JoB 23SQa bATED 06104185 ************************************************************ GENER_TI CJ,.;";N;...;:;.S...;.Y..;;;"S...TE;.M__-.,----."..,,...,................_~--.........-:!'I"'fII"1-'""3II"'Jl""l"'II"'Jlr---_~'II"'lI"'---------------~E coiL'NGlscT OIL cT DIESEL cORcYC TYpEs TYPE 1 2 3 4 5 6 7-10 OPTMIING 0 1442 1485 0 0 1488 *** PtT TRIM 0 0 0 0 0 0 1'84 ~0 ,.."4~1"1 ~e.~,e 45 $UM=11 jj *****************************************************************-*****-----------fofil CAPAB. ---,-E I R l Y M W I b biT ION S +TIES **~t*****.************************** *************_*_******----...-.....-_--------------------------------- 45* .-,85.-------------_'II!!""':r'---------------------- ------------------------------------,(1""111"""1,..1,------ ~----------------------------------- llbd 81 ------------::IZM3~.;-.-------------------------- 88 -------------------------------------------- 89 --------------------------------."""lI""l"~----- ,.------------------------------.;.....----~I""I!"""'.------ ..... ---------------------------------------- .---- 25* -----------------------------.....1l""'l3M8r'l3r------ ~------------------------------------ 1425 WITH SUSITNA 3.·'LOW GAS &COAL PRICE -~US3,SUSITNA eASE FOP THE TOTAL RAIL8ELT RE&ION, JOB NUMBER 42378 O~/03/85 11'44 AM BASED ON DATA PREP Joe 42282 DATED O~/03/8S ************************************************************--,.-.:.-------------------------------- *** TYPES 7-10 OPT~ZING 0 1996 1996 0 0 1996 PCT TRIM 0 -0 0 0 0 0 -~f MW 0 73 ~03 191 20 3S8 180 SUM:1425 ***.r******************************************************************* GENERATION SYSTEM ----~UKE COAL NGASCl OIL CT DIESEL COMCYC TYPE 1 2 3 4 5 6 -YR ** rOTAl CAPAS. YEA ~l Y M W A 0 0 I T ION S +TIES ************"'*-******** ******* **********-***-**************-i~6 -._~---- --~ q7--- 98 ---C~9 .-0 -- I""'"1 --r-- ~.3 4 -~- -,--- 339* 1563 156v lSOb 13"9 134! 132$ 478* 1737 1737 1735 1730 1'638 1374 r " WITH SUSITNA 3.LOW GAS &COAL PRICE _____2292 *********************************************************************** ***********************************************************************-~ADD 0 0 522 0 0 0 1570 SUM:20Q2 MW RET 0 -48 -603 -tqt -20 -358 -5 SUM:-1225 ****** *************************************************** 2020 0 25 522 0 0 0 1745 SU~:2292 PCT TOT 0.0 --~,1 22.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 7b.1 SUM:I00 PCT ---,-~._..-~-------------~-------- TYPES 7-10 *** - WITHOUT SUSITNA 3.<'LOW GAS &COAL PRICE SUSITNA POWER SALES NEGOTIATIONS,YEARS 1985-2000 GUTT3,THEH~AL ~ASE FOR THE TOTAL RAILBELT REGION JOB NUM8ER 46821 06/04/85 01:00 p~ a_SEc ON DATA PREP JOB 46811 DATED 06/04/85 ~r**********************************************.************ GENERATION SYSTEM ----~UKE COAL NGASCT OIL (T DIESEL COMCYC TYPE 1 2 3 4 5 6 OPTMZING 0 lq92 lqe5 0 0 lq88 PCT TRI~0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 q8LI MW 0 54 443 147 36 358 ~5 SUM:11 33 ***~r*******************************************************************ToTAL CAPAB. -~-y EAR L Y M lti A 0 D I T I 0 ~s +TIES ********* ************** ************************************ 1177 1108 117 f 132* 1303 1303 1357 WITHOUT SUSITNA 3 •.,LOW GAS &COAL PRICE SUSYTNA PO~ER SALES NEGOTIATIONS,YEARS lQQ6-2020 ;UT3,THfR~ALLO~GAS &COAL PRICE FOR THE TOTAL RAILBELT JOB NU~BER 35474 06/~1/85 09:50 A~ BASED ON DATA PREP JOB 35398 DATED 06/01/85 *1r********************************************************** GENERATIO~SYSTEM NUKE COAL NGASCT OIL CT DIESEL COMCYC TYPES TYPE 1 2 3 4 5 6 7-10 OPT~ZI~G 0 lq9b 1996 0 0 1996 *** PCT TRIM 0 0 0 0 0 0 19951iW"0 ~73 603 191 20 358 180 SUM=1b25 ****1'****************************************************************** TOTAL CAPAa. YR YEA R L y---M WAD 0 I T ION S ...TIES *********************** ************** ********************** ", WITHOUT SUSITNA 3.LOW GAS &COAL PRICE 184u 1927 1927 1927 *********************************************************************** ******************~**********************************-***************** -~{l)j)0 1000 522 0 0 0 0 SUM:1522 Mw I~ET 0 ....48 .-b03 -191 -20 -356 0 SUM:-1220 ~-~t******** *************************i**ii ******i**i***** 2021~Ol2.Z5 522 0 0 0 180 SUt.4:1927 pCTttn 0.0 63.6 21.)0.0 0.0 0.0 q.3 SU"":100 pCI- "'''', FUEL PRICE 3.row GAS &COAL PRICE - Natural Gas Natural Gas Natural Gas Coal Coal Fuel Price Analyzed Anchorage Anchorage Beluga River-Anchorage Nenana 0% Diamond Replaces Basic Analysis Fuel Anchorage-cook Inlet In 1999 Anchorage-North Slc-pe In 1999 Beluga River-Cook Inlet In 1999 APA Nenana APA Beluga Export -, ANCHORAGE NATURAL GAS (S/t-1MB1U) NOMINAL REAL PRICe. ,~ YEAR PRICE..(INF-&.31%) ******************** -($198~)Oil-1985 2.000 2.000 198b 2.150 2.28b 4..,.'981 2.240 2.~32 1988 2.170 2.b07 '989 2.21:)0 2.671.4 19ctO 2.334 3.1bl.:l ~,y Q l 2.420 3.494 1992 2.~10 3.852 1993 2.&03 4.247 ~.PJ9q 2.700 '6.bA3 lyQ';)2.8P-O ~.1f,3 199b 2.904 ~.bQ2 1':197 3.011 &.275 1998 3.122 &.'H 7 1999 3.238 7.b2& 2000 3.357 8.406 PM.. 2005 '6.02&13.b88 p,2010 4.827 22.2Rb 201S 5.788 3&.287 .2020 6.9 L1 Q 59.083 ~ - - r~ ", -, NENANA 0% COA.L PRICE ($/i'iMBTUJ NO~INAL REAL PRICE YtAR PRICE (lNF-b.31X) ******************** ($1985)($) 1985 1.910 1.910 1986 1.910 2.031 1987 1.910 2.15'1 1968 1.910 2.29" 1989 1.910 2.440 1990 1.910 2.5914 1'191 1.910 2.757 \992 1.910 2.931 1993 1.910 3.116 19Q~1.910 .~.313 199':>1.910 3.~22 199b 1.~10 3.744 1997 1.<.il0 3.980 1998 1.910 4.2~2 1999 1.~10 4.49~ 2000 1.910 4.782 ;>005 1.910 6.4cH~ 2010 1.910 8.818 201~1.910 11.974' ..-2020 1.910 16.260 _........_~~I"l_.--------------'1""'"'""-------'----'--'--------------- -, '-r--r -~TIT~z ttl ~t-t t-t "tI~t-t t-t t-t IV ttl ?:UllD0::r PI 0 0 ........·0 "'00 0 _PI lD lD PI rt (...Plrt(11((1-3 vnn PI ::s""rt n (,I)PI ::s::r ....n (l).....(,1)::s 0 (l)~H t'Zj rt n O(j)(j)t'Zj 1-3 ~.... PI PI to ::s ....00 (l)III III n ~(,I)rt.....H (II HI ~I ....1lI (/)(,I)(j)t'Zj ......... ~....Ill'Ill .....III III (,I)<: t'1 PI III ::s 5"'0 It'l "'0 (/)(j)........ X rt 0,11 PI~a'~'0 ....(l)::s 11 n ....(,I)(,I) 0 gl Po ....0 0 -....::s 11 0 PI (I)(,I) rt (J)..... ttl Ul III ",(l) 11 ::s ::s PI III (/)l3 ......... (l)~rtrtm....(\)....<: 11 m ....m rt ~ ·'IVw"'" . ••·1 I ··~---~o :1--DEscRIPTIoN ----.--I VI ..... 01\.01001 ......10'\.....10 I , I I I !.•I ~.~--~----+---_._..__._---I ..~~-~~~-l-~~-I-?:._-~-t-:<-l-->:1 1999 Gas Peak I >:2 1996 Gas Peak ~-L::J.~~I.>:r-~'-'--:::-.-.-;_....------3-'-R~m-p~d'-G~s~p'~'i~'~----I >:>:4 CEA-Enstar Gas Price I";-'~>:I >:>:-----..~-~;;-.-----"-'5'-""APA"'C'~~i-p~'i~'~'-'''---...--_.I ~~~~---~--~--.---------..-----1--_._-.__-,-~_--_._-_......II'>:>:6 Nenana 0%I-I I I r~I-·--1-----no _••_••-_-••••••__.1-.-_.._--..--__..- ---------.l >:>:7 Beluga Low Coal Pricer"--l-:I---I ,,~~+=~=~-=-~_~=-__:_---~-~.Mat~n;;~k~·m~_ f~-~-r~1--l;-~--"--=~-.....~..~-=~-=~~:i~-::~~}-;:~1E::~~~li:~ral only) '--11---1---!--......... ,---._._..............-I I ,I >:J 12 5%Inflation/---.-_.-'-""r-'--+-····1 ····----,'--'--_n'..-.._._-_'"--"-'"''''-......•••••••--••-.-.--.. I >:-l::13 Keetna...---.I---r---·t---·-f----..-----__---._."-"-.--.----'--"'-"-"-•._-_............. I >:>:'>:~>:.x!>:.>:>:x >:>:14 Bradley Lake 3rd Unit~__,::::---~t=-1:-7:==::-::::~::~_:::'~::-::::_-i~..·-Phase ••·i-only -~-_..I !I [I!x 16 Diamond Coal..I _•'--. 1 1 )1 1 1 J 1 1 ~J . ALASKA POWER AUTHOR I TV SUSITNA FINANCIAL ANALVSIS COMPARISON OF RAILBELT COST OF POWER ($000) CASE 4:LOW COAL PRICE WITH DIAMOND PLANT 12-Jun-85 WITHOUT SUSITNA PAGE I OF 2 EXISTING ANNUAL CAPITAL COSTS OF NEW PLANT (I)COMPARA8LE UTlLITV -----------------------------------------------RENEWALS AND ENERGY COST OF DE8T UTILITY LARGE 8RADlEV REPLACEMENTS REQUIREMENTS POWER YEAR SERVICE (2)THERMAL(3)THERMAL(4)lAKE(5)SUSITNA(6)FUEL (7)0&M(8)(9)TOTAL<10)(GWHH II)(C/KWHH 12) ===========:===========z=======a=~==================::=======================================================~====================~== 1985 24,638 1,974 °0 0 47,700 23,100 0 97,412 3,502 2.8 1986 24,692 2,289 0 0 0 61,500 24,800 0 113,281 3,767 3.0 1987 24,821 2,989 °°0 69,700 26,600 °124,110 3,938 3.2 1988 24,910 9,946 °0 °81,900 29,500 °146,256 4,106 3.6 1989 25,275 9,946 °0 0 100,100 31,500 0 166,821 4,269 3.9 1990 25,224 9,946 °17,562 0 98,300 34,200 484 185,716 4,446 4.2 ISSI 25,218 14,567 °17,562 °115,500 37,400 514 210,761 4,567 4.6 1992 25,214 14,567 123,312 17 ,562 °107,300 64,400 8,198 366,553 4,676 7.8 1993 25,196 14.567 129,312 17,562 0 121,400 68,400 8,714 385,152 4,781 8.1 1994 25,180 17,783 129,312 17,562 0 214,700 76,800 9,263 490,601 4,880 10.1 1995 25,179 17,783 129,312 21,862 0 248,100 81,400 9,847 533,483 4,981 10.7 1996 25,113 17,783 288,247 21,862 0 246,900 114,200 25,722 739,827 5,090 14.5 1997 24,874 17,783 288,247 21,862 0 278,300 121,800 27,343 780,209 5,203 15.0 1998 24,715 17,783 467,873 21,862 °268,400 163,900 46,306 1,010,839 5,317 19.0 1999 24,658 17,783 467,873 21,862 °307,400 170,200 49,224 1,059,000 5,434 19.5 2000 24,425 17,783 700,795 21,862 0 272,300 217,800 70,535 1,325,500 5,552 23.9 2001 22,014 17,783 700,795 21,862 0 298,300 233,400 74,979 1,369,133 5,632 24.3 2002 22,009 17,783 700,795 21,862 0 346,700 238,400 79,702 1,427,251 5,713 25.0 2003 20,983 17,783 713,328 21,862 0 373,900 257,000 85,890 1,490,746 5,796 25.7 2004 20,970 17.783 713,328 21,862 0 412,900 273,300 91,301 1,551,444 5,879 26.4 2005 20,910 17,783 713,328 21,862 0 459,900 292,700 97,053 1,623,536 5,964 27.2 2006 20,683 17,783 981,553 21,862 °417,100 349,400 128,912 1,937,294 6,050 32.0 2007 20,666 17,783 997,561 21,862 °469,100 374,300 138,524 2,039,796 6,136 33.2 2008 20,651 17,783 1,300.711 21.862 °411 ,600 453,600 176,348 2,402.555 6,225 38.6 2009 20,635 17.783 1.318.803 21.862 0 443,900 480.600 189,142 2,492.725 6,315 39.5 2010 20.619 17,783 1.318,803 21,862 °490,900 512,200 201,058 2,583,225 6,406 40.3 2011 20.597 17.783 1,318,803 21.862 0 539,200 545.800 213,725 2,677,770 6,498 41.2 2012 20.588 17.783 1.318,803 21,862 0 592,100 581,500 227,190 2,779,825 6,543 42.5 2013 14,898 17.783 1,341.911 21,862 °665,300 619,400 243,654 2,924,808 6,686 43.7 2014 12,637 17,783 1,341,911 21,862 0 734,000 659,700 259,004 3,046,897 6,782 44.9 2015 12,637 17.783 1,341,911 21,862 °818,200 702,600 275,321 3,190,314 6,880 46.4 2016 12,637 17,783 1,397,441 21,862 °930,300 752,900 297,836 3,430,759 6,979 49.2 2017 12,637 17,783 1,911 ,951 21,862 0 843,000 894,700 365,984 4,067,916 7,080 57.5 2018 12,637 17,783 1,911,951 21,862 °931,400 953,700 -389,041 4,238,373 7,182 59.0 2019 12,637 17,783 1,911,951 21,862 °1,022,500 1,016,500 413,550 4,416,783 7,286 60.6 2020 12,637 17,783 1,911,951 21,862 0 1,128,600 1,089,700 439,604 4,622,136 7,390 62.5 CUMUlATIVE PRESENT WORTH OF TOTAL COSTS (1985-2020)6,782,563 1 J 1 1 J i )l J ]··-1 l 1 j -1 ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY SUSITNA FINANCIAL ANALYSIS COMPARISON OF RAILBELT COST OF POWER ($000) CASE 4:LOW COAL PRICE WITH DIAMOND PLANT 12-Jun-85 WITH SUS ITNA PAGE 2 or Z EXISTING ANNUAL CAPITAl COSTS OF NEW PLANT (1)COMPARABlE UTILITY -----------------------------------------------RENEWALS AND ENERGY COST or DEBT UTILITY LARGE BRADLEY REPLACEMENTS REQUIREMENTS POWER YEAR SERVICE (2)THERMAL (3)TI£RMAL(4)LAKE(5)SUSlTNA(6)FUEU1)0'"(8)(9)TOTAL<10)(GWHH 11)(C/KWHH 12) =======••==_~%===~:==~==:===~=====a ••••====:=_============~=======================:=============================:====:==:=Z~========= 1985 24,638 1,914 0 0 0 41,700 23,100 ()97,412 3,502 ....eo." i986 24,692 2,289 0 0 0 61,500 24,800 0 113,281 3,761 3.0 1981 24,821 2,989 0 0 0 69,700 26,600 0 124,110 3,938 3.2 1988 24,910 9,946 0 0 0 81,900 29,500 0 146,256 4,106 3.6 1989 25,215 9,946 ° °°100,100 31,500 0 166,821 4,269 3.9 1990 25,224 9,946 0 17,562 °98,300 34,200 484 185,716 4,446 4.2 1991 25,218 14,561 0 17,562 0 115,500 37,400 514 210,761 4,567 4.6 1992 25,214 14.561 19,112 17,562 °107,300 64,400 8,198 316,953 4,676 6.8 1993 25,196 14,567 79,712 17,562 °121,400 68,400 8,714 335,552 4,781 7.0 1994 25,180 17,783 79,112 17,562 0 214,700 76\800 9,263 441,001 4,880 9.0 1995 25,179 17,783 19,712 21,862 °248,100 81,400 9,847 483,883 4,981 9.7 1996 25,113 17,783 19,112 21,862 128,000 118,300 92,600 35,367 1,118,138 5,090 22.0 1991 24,874 17,783 79,112 21,862 766,000 139,700 98,400 37,595 1,185,927 5,203 22.8 1998 24,715 17,783 79.112 21,862 766,000 161,500 104,400 39,964 1,215,936 5,317 22.9 1999 24,658 17,783 79,112 21.862 766,000 191,900 106,900 42,482 1,257,297 5,434 23.1 2000 24,425 17,783 19,712 21,862 766,000 235,000 110,400 45,158 1,300,340 5,552 23.4 2001 22,014 17,783 79,712 21,862 766,000 268,900 117,500 48,003 1,341,774 5,632 23.8 2002 22,009 17,783 79,712 21,862 1,351,000 51,700 108,300 71,127 1,723,494 5,713 30.2 2003 20,983 17,783 79,712 21,862 1,384,000 59,300 115,000 75,608 1,174,249 5,796 30.6 2004 20,970 11,783 79,712 21,862 1,384,000 71,700 124,100 80,372 1,800,499 5,879 30.6 2005 20,910 17,783 79,712 21,862 1,384,000 81,500 131,700 85,435 1,822,902 5,964 30.6 2006 20,683 17,783 79,112 21,862 1,384,000 115,000 119,500 90,817 1,849,358 6,050 30.6 2007 20,666 11,783 79.712 21.862 1,384,000 131,300 126,400 96,539 1,878,262 6,136 30.6 2008 20,651 17,183 19,712 21,862 2,119,000 0 123,200 127,521 2,509,729 6,225 40.3 2009 20.635 11,783 19,112 21,962 2,ISO,000 °127,200 135,555 2,552,741 6,315 40.4 2010 20,619 17,183 79,712 21,862 2,ISO,000 6,100 134,200 144,095 2,574,371 6,406 40.2 2011 20,591 17,783 79,712 21,862 2,150,000 6,600 141,400 153,173 2,591,121 6,498 39.9 2012 20,588 17,183 79,112 21,862 2,150,000 17,700 148,900 162,822 2,619,368 6.543 40 •.0 2013 14,898 17,783 125,929 21,862 2,150,000 19,100 160,600 177,383 2,687,555 6,686 40.2 2014 12,631 17,783 125,929 21,862 2,150,000 28,900 173,200 188,558 2,718,869 6,782 40.1 2015 12,637 17.783 125,929 21,862 2,150,000 35,600 186,800 200,437 2,751,048 6,880 40.0 2016 12.637 17,783 153,694 21,862 2.150,000 62,300 196,600 215,649 2,830,525 6,979 40.6 2017 12.637 17,783 153,694 21,862 2,150,000 93,100 206,900 229,235 2,885,211 7,080 40.8 2018 12,637 17,783 185,074 21,862 2,150,000 111,500 .228,700 246,598 2,974,154 7,182 41.4 2019 12,637 17,783 185,014 21,862 2,150,000 132,300 246,600 262,134 3,028,389 7,286 41.6 2020 12,637 17,783 185,074 21,862 2,150,000 201,100 259,400 278,648 3,126,504 7,390 42.3 CUMULATIVE PRESENT WORTH OF TOTAL COSTS (1985-2020)6,880,160 12-Jun "J <--1 -1 J J 1 .-)1 .i Inter••t Elrnings Annu.1 S.-Ii -annul I 11.00 5.36 SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT RATE STA8ALIZATION ANALYSIS UTILITY LOAD FORECASTS CASE 4:LOW COAL PRICE WITH DIAMOND PLANT WITH SUS ITNA THERMAL ALTERNATIVE RATE STAB!l!ZAT!ON ------------------------------------------------------ ---------------------------TOTAl SYSTEM TOTAl TOTAL SYSTEM TOTAL ACCRUED SYSTEM ENERGY SYSTEM SYSTEM ENERGY SYSTEM REO.STATE STATE REQ. COSTS SALES COSTS COSTS SALES COSTS SUBSIDY CONTRIB. CONTRIB.SUBSIDY SAVINGS CV ($MIL)(GWh)(c/kWh)C$MIL)CGWh)Cc/kWh)($MIl)($MIl)C$MIL)C$HIL)C$MIl)------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------ 1985 97 3,502 2.8 97 3,502 2.8 100.0 100.0 1986 113 3,767 3.0 113 3,767 3.0 34 200.0 266.2 1987 124 3,938 3.2 124 3,938 3.2 22 200.0 494.7 1988 146 4,106 3.6 146 4,106 3.6 9 110.7 ~2.5 1989 167 4,269 3.9 .167 4,269 3.9 -64 0.0 803.2 1990 186 4,446 4.2 186 4,446 4.2 0.0 891.6 1991 211 4,567 4.6 211 4,567 4.6 0.0 989.7 1992 317 4,676 6.8 367 4,676 7.8 0.0 1038.5 1993 336 4,781 7.0 385 4,781 8.1 0.0 1219.4 1994 441 4,880 9.0 491 4,B80 10.1 0.0 1353.5 1995 484 4,981 9.7 534 4,981 10.7 0.0 1502.4 1996 1,119 5,090 22.0 740 5,090 14.5 379 0.0 1268.5 379 0 1997 1,186 5,203 22.8 780 5,203 15.0 406 980.6 406 0 1998 1,216 5,317 22.9 1,011 5,317 19.0 205 872.3 .205 0 1999 1,257 5,434 23.1 1,059 5,434 19.5 198 759.4 198 0 2000 1,300 5,552 23.4 1,330 5,552 23.9 0 842.9 0 29 2001 1,342 5,632 23.8 1,369 5,632 24.3 0 935.6 0 27 2002 1,724 5,713 30.2 1,427 5,713 25.0 296 726.5 296 0 2003 1,774 5,796 30.6 1,491 5,796 25.7 284 507.7 284 0 2004 1,801 5,879 30.6 1,551 5,879 26.4 249 301.1 249 0 2005 1,823 5,964 30.6 1,624 5,964 27.2 199 124.2 199 0 2006 1,849 6,050 30.6 1,937 6,050 32.0 0 137.8 0 88 2007 1,878 6,136 30.6 2,040 6,136 33.2 0 153.0 0 162 2008 2,510 6,225 40.3 2,403 6,225 38.6 107 57.0 107 0 2009 2,553 6,315 40.4 2,493 6,315 39.5 60 .0 60 0 2010 2,574 6,406 40.2 2,583 6,406 40.3 0 .0 0 9 2011 2,591 6,498 39.9 2,678 6,498 41.2 0 .0 0 87 2012 2,619 6,543 40.0 2,780 6,543 42.5 0 .0 0 160 2013 2,688 6,686 40.2 2,925 6,686 43.7 0 .0 0 237 2014 2,719 6,782 40.1 3,047 6,782 44.9 0 .0 0 328 2015 2,751 6,880 40.0 3,190 6,880 46.4 0 .0 0 439 2016 2,831 6,979 40.6 3,431 6,979 49.2 0 .0 0 600 2017 2,885 7,080 40.8 4,068 7,080 57.5 0 .0 0 1,183 2018 2,974 7,182 41.4 4,238 7,182 59.0 0 .0 I 0 1,264 2019 3,028 7,286 41.6 4,417 7,286 60.6 0 .0 0 1,388 2020 3,127 7,390 42.3 4,622 7,390 62.5 0 .0 0 1,496----------....----------------- 2383 610.7 2,383 7,498 ]I J -j )j "I 1 11 -]tJ J ,"1 ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY SUSITNA FI NANCIAL ANALYSIS COMPARISON OF RAILBELT COST OF ENERGY 20202015 - - - - - - - - -WITHOUT SUSITNA_._-0-WITH SUSITNA ----BASE CASE WITHOUT SUSITNA ...............,",,,, ",, ".,.,--' ~,..~........----........ 2010200520001995 CASE 4:LOW COAL PRICE WITH OlAMON 0 PLANT80 75 70 65 60a::w 55~-0::1:a..~50u.~ o~45....zCf,Jw 4000 O...J w<35...JzCD-<~30a::0<z0..-25:Ea 0 20 15 10 5 0 1985 1990 YEAR JUNE 12,1985 """'WITH SUSITNA 4.LOW GOAL PRICE WITH DIAMOND PLANT IUIITIlA I'OII!.ULEI "[;DTIAURa.Yl!!J.-.!tR-a.i. CUffl.THERMAL lASE fOR THE TOTAL,II~f 1I"1i . --J08 NUMIE.)••23 '..,.s,cn,,n It-",.....~.~.,...:~_ IAIED ON DATA PRE'JOB SHIt liTO "'tl/n -,'';:'i.=~. ************IIt*****..***********, ;ENERATION STITEM NUKE COAL N,'aCT OIL cf DIEIEL COMeyC TY'£1 2 J •'5 • iOPTMZI'"0 1"2 l'IS • •I'" 'CT TRIM 0 0 • • •Ii r 1 r 'R ** 15 I, 17 " •• ••• , E i •L ,••A D D I TI 0 •••TIl. *****.**e*******.****••*•••e *.*....••••e.**......*e.***** 1117 116. 2S* 1171 1313 • 1303 '0. 1357 11*I.'. -,_'_2 W/-_-g.;...p_p.'I"TIm-__~I." •• 151e 4'.---'.._....1.:ItL - ",WITH SUSITNA 4.LOW COAL PRICE WITH DIAMOND PLANT SUSITNA PO~ER SALES NEGOTIATIONS,YEARS 1996-2020, GUS4,SUSITNA BASE FOR THE TOTAL RAIlB£lT REGION, JOB NUMBER 42470 06/03/85.11:47 A~ BASED ON DATA PREP JOB 42377 DATED Obl03/85 ************************************************************ ENERATION SYSTEllli NUKE COAL NGASCT OIL CT DIESEL COMCVC ,YPE 1 2 3 4 5 6 lPTM2ING U 1996 1996 0 0 199b ~CT TRIM 0 0 0 0 0 0 TYPES 7-10 *** 1995 ~w 0 214 603 191 20 358 180 SUM=15bb *********************************************************************** YEA R l Y M WAD 0 I T ION S +TI£S ********************************************************* 1704 1701 1&47 ~.4 -~-----_._--- 5 7 14bb 478* 1~78 1878 1876 1871 1579 1515 - 8 "WITH SUSITNA 4.LOW COAL PRICE WITH DIAMOND PLANT 151* 22&& 2181 213f) 2135 2111 2172 2112 2172 2172 2259 225'1 ***********.*****.*********-******************************************* ***************************************************************-******* ~U'l ADD 0 0 348 0 0 0 1570 SUM:lq16 litii REI 0 -48 -603 -191 -20 -358 -5 suM:-1225 'IIIr***************** ****************-**********************-166 348 0 0 0 1145 SUM=2020 0 225'j peT TOT 0.0 7.3 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 77.2 SuM=100 PCT .- WITHOUT SUSITNA 4.LOW COAL PRICE WITH DIAMOND PLANT SUSITNA POwER SALES NEGOTIATIONS,,EAI.It.!-ZI'' ;UTT8,THERMAL BASE FOR THE TOTAL RIILIE ..,IECIOi JOB NUMBER 39923 ••/IJ/.5 .111.5 AM BASED ON DATA PREP JOB 3.9il DATED './13/15 •••••••••tl •••••*••••••••••••***.*•••••••••••***•••••••*••••_ WITHOUT SUSITNA 4.LOW COAL PRICE WITH DIAMOND PLANT SUSITNA POWER SALES NEGOTIATIONS,YEARS tQ96-2020 GUT4,THERMAL lO-C04L PRICE "/DIAMOND PLANT JOB NUM~ER 26577 06/0~/85 07:22 A~ BASED ON DATA PREP JOB 2~575 DATED 06/03/85 ************************************************************ GENERATION SYSTEM NUKE COAL NGASCT OIL CT DIESEL COMCYC TYPE 1 2 3 4 5 6 OPTMZING 0 199b 199~0 0 1996 PCT TRIM 0 0 0 0 0 0 TYPES 7-10 *** 1995 ~w 0 214 603 191 20 358 160 SUM=1566 *************It*********************************************************r- I YR ** YEA R l Y M WAD 0 I T ION S *********************************************** 200* TOTAL CAPAS. +TIES ****** 1565 **** 97 98 ~ I 991,""". I t r" ! 1 2 3 4 5 7 , 200* 1't 200 IX 87 1 X 2"00 IX 87 1562 170li 1551 1745 1727 Ib61 1748 174b 1741 1672 ..- I " WITHOUT SUSITNA 4.LOW COAL PRICE WITH DIAMOND PLANT 1872 1872 .....lU -._--. 11 12 ~I 13 r-IX 87 ,-,14 15 !""'" 10-,2x 87 17 IX 21)0 18 """" 1q 20 1827 1~27 182c 1781 1781 1781 lob~ 2068 20bb 2068 *********************************************************************** **********************************************************-************ MW ADO 0 1200 522 0 0 0 0 SUM:1722 MW RtT 0 -48 -603 -lqt -20 -358 0 SUM:-1220 ****** ****************** ************ *******************.* 2020 0 1306 ~22 0 0 0 180 SUM:20cB peT ToT 0.0 66.1 25.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.7 SUM:I00 peT ", FUEL PRICE 4.IDW COAL PRICE WI'Ili DIAIDND PIANT Coal Coal Fuel Price Analyzed Nenana 0% Diamond Replaces Basic Analysis Fuea, I, KPA Nenana ~A Beluga Export ., NENANA 0% COAL PRICE ($/MM8TU) NO~INAL REAL PRICE Yt:Aw PRICE (lNF-b.31%)'1"""-******************** (51q85)($) 1985 1.910 1.910 198b 1.910 2.031 1981 1.910 2.1SIoi 1'188 1.910 2.2Q';) 1989 1.910 2.440 1990 1.910 2.5Qt& 1'191 1.910 2.757 1992 1.910 2.931 19q3 1.910 3.11b 19 Q 4 1.91'0 .~.3]3 1~9';)1.910 3.~22 l~qb 1.1.,110 3.74'1 1997 1.910 3.980 11198 1.910 4.232 1~q9 1•..,,10 4.49"J 2000 1.910 4.782 "OO~1.910 b.4q4 2010 1.910 8.818 201~1.910 11.974' 2020 1.910 10.260 -, 'J 1 --1 -~-1 1 J J 1 J 1 ~~~T;~T~l~--TIl~!Z 'U s:I:'l I:'l b:l S'enIII0::r PI 0 0 -PI IIIIIIPIrt(~"'~~~IrtC1tI!PI ~::r 1-'-I C1 'U en~0 III ~H I'%j rt C1 ()(j)(j)I'%j 1-3 '<:1-'-PI S'IIIPIPI~~1-"00 IllPi PI ~~~-~.t1 ~ l-'H ("Hi ...~..~I tIl I en Cil PI PI Ul.... f\'~PI ~~!~'U ~PI til <:a ~1-'- t<:l PI PI ::s G)~1-'-III '<:rt X rt ()o 'U t1 PI'<::urt rt til 1-'- '0 1-'-CD ~t1 C1 1-'-til til ~'<:III 1-'-<: 0 0 P,1-'-0 ()-1-'-:::s t1 til 1-'- t1 :::s ()PI CD til til rtrtIII~'<: .'oI-'Nwor::- . •I I I +--_·__·~o :-tDESCRIPTION I V1m'-Jco\D ~ o .-......------...I ~-L-=--I x I x -~~--L~L-~-J-~~JI-~---~-tx x 1 1999 Gas Peak I I X 2 1996 Gas Peak '---I-I I I •~-----'---..----...-.---..--.--.--------.---------.------.--.----I X X X X 3 Ramped Gas Price----. X X 4 CEA-Enstar Gas Price ~X I x.X '-X X X __~~-._-_..__~~~~~~.~.:~~~~=~_=~i~~=~~~~·-~?~~__i~~?·~-~~~~::=.~~-._-_---._·---:1 I x x 6 Nenana 0 % I I I I ----t----.•_._--..------..-._._.------..-----------.--..-------.--..-.-----------_....I I .X x 7 Beluga Low Coal Price I I ----/---.-...-.--------.--.-----~-..--..-------- -.-...--.. - . r'--1--.---.~----.---...-------------.--.-.---...-----.-.-.-..-..-~-l-1a~a._nu~k~_._..-~-r:-;;-br--=-.~~:=:~u=~::;._~~=--:::=J:)i:In~~::i~~(i~,,-;~a];_-:;;nlY)I I x 11 10%Financing (Both) ~-----.---.l------~-.~.....--.----.--.--------'__-_0 __'~~~~~'.'_·~.ii_.'.:~_~..~.%.j:.~f.__~.~~~.~:~.~-::~=---.-::...:_-:~-._-.-.._-._-..----; I x + :13 Keetna1-----1--·.-,'--1-------"'--_"0.._-.-.•---.-_.•_-_.--•.'-"'-"--'".-..'------,.. ...•,_.".,._.--- I"'~'--~---~..J.-.~-L~.?:<.~..----__.~._e-..~.-~-._._~..~~Bradl~~...!:'~~E!.3rd~J~i t I ~"--f'----~-f--~--._~.----.-.---....----...__H.••__......!?..PhC3:.S~_I.Only LJ I I !..x ._16 Diamond Coal --~§-)I c --1 ~"'-'-~'1 .-j i }I J )-1 ALASKA POWER AUTHOR lTV SUSITNA FINANCIAL ANALVSIS COMPARISON OF RAILBELT COST OF POWER ($000) CASE 5:LON FINANCE 12-Jun-85 WITHOUT SUSITNA PAGE I OF 2 EXISTING ANNUAL CAPITAL COSTS OF NEW PLANT (I)COMPARABLE UTILITV -----------------------------------------------RENEWALS AND ENERGV COST OF DEBT UTILITY LARGE BRADLEV REPLACEMENTS REQUIREMENTS POWER VEAR SERVICE (2)THERHAL(3)THERHAL(4)LAKE(5)SUSITNA(6)FUEL<7)0&H(8)(9)TOTAl(10)(GWHH 11)(C/KWHH 12)=.==••=~==============~==================~==~===========================================================================:z =======z=z= 1985 24,638 1,974 0 0 0 47,700 23,100 0 97,412 3.502 2.8 1986 24,692 2,289 0 0 0 61,500 24,800 0 113,281 3,767 3.0 1987 24,821 2,989 0 0 0 69,700 26,600 0 124,110 3,938 3.2 1988 24,910 9,946 0 0 0 81,900 29,500 0 146,256 4,106 3.6 1989 25,275 9,946 0 0 0 100,100 31,500 0 166,B21 4,269 3.9 1990 25,224 9,946 0 17,562 0 98,300 34,200 484 185,716 4,446 4.2 1991 25,218 14,567 0 17,562 0 115,500 37,400 514 210,761 4,567 4.6 1992 25,214 14,567 0 17,562 0 131,000 39,200 547 228,090 4,676 4.9 1993 25,196 14,567 0 17,562 0 148,000 41,800 581 247,706 4,781 5.2 1994 25,180 17,783 0 17,562 0 250,400 48,000 618 359,543 4,880 7.4 1995 25,179 17,783 179,503 21,662 0 268,000 82,400 14,141 608,868 4,981 12.2 1996 25,113 17,783 179,503 21,862 0 304,500 82,300 15,032 646,093 5,090 12.7 1997 24,874 17,783 323,375 21,862 0 307,400 121,800 31,218 848,312 5,203 16.3 1998 24,715 17,783 323,375 21,862 0 346,100 129,900 33,165 896,919 5,317 16.9 1999 24,656 17,783 510,082 21,862 0 331,200 170,200 51,291 1,127,071 5,434 20.7 2000 24,425 17,783 510,082 21,862 0 372,600 182,000 54,522 1,183,275 5,552 21.3 2001 22,014 17,783 510,082 21,B62 0 417,300 193,200 57,957 1,240,199 5,632 22.0 2002 22,009 17,783 510,082 21,862 0 476,700 196,700 61,609 1,306,745 5,713 22.9 2003 20,983 17,763 703,217 21,862 0 433,200 253,400 85,947 1,536,393 5,796 26.5 2004 20,970 17,763 703,217 21,862 0 480,700 269,400 91,362 1,605,294 5,879 27.3 2005 20,910 17,783 703,217 21,862 0 535,100 286,500 97,118 1,684,490 5,964 28.2 2006 20,683 17,783 930,973 21,862 0 516,300 347,200 127,360 1,982,161 6,050 32.8 2007 20,666 17,783 945,412 21,662 0 578,500 369,500 136,656 2,090,579 6,136 34.1 2008 20,651 17,7B3 960,761 21,862 0 647,600 395,900 147,044 2,211 ,601 6,225 35.5 2009 20,635 11,783 971 ,080 21,862 0 715,300 421,300 157,972 2,331,931 6,315 36.9 2010 20,619 11,783 977,080 21,862 0 805,000 448,200 167,924 2,458,467 6,406 38.4 2011 20,597 17,783 977 ,080 21,862 0 887,800 476,800 178,503 2,580,425 6,498 39.7 2012 20,588 17,783 996,686 21,862 0 989,200 514,100 191,748 2,751,967 6,543 42.1 2013 14,898 17,783 1,341,360 21,862 0 944,500 615,600 240,337 3,196,339 6,686 47.8 2014 12,637 17,783 1,341,360 21,862 0 1,043,200 655,600 255,478 3,347,919 6,782 49.4 2015 12,637 17,783 1,341,360 21,B62 0 1,156,200 702,600 271,573 3,524,014 6,880 51.2 2016 12,637 17,783 1,,366,403 21,862 0 1,280,400 743,300 291,236 3,733,621 6,979 53.5 2017 12,637 17,783 '-,393,026 21,862 0 1,427,400 801,600 312,299 3,986,607 7,080 56.3 2018 12,637 11,783 1,393,026 21,862 0 1,572,800 853,300 331,974 4,203,382 7,182 58.5 2019 12,637 17,783 1,393,026 21,662 0 1,762,300 908,200 352,888 4,468,697 7,286 61.3 2020 12,637 17,783 1,918,411 21,862 0 1,718,800 1,083,200 430,769 5,203,462 7,390 70.4 CUMULATIVE PRESENT WORTH OF TOTAL COSTS (1985-2020)6,596,311 )-1 ----1 --~-~))j )1 1 -1 -I. ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY SUSITNA FINANCIAL ANALYSIS COMPARISON OF RAILBELT COST OF POWER ($000) CASE 5:LOW FINANCE 12-Jun-85 WlTH SUS ITNA PAGE 2 OF 2 EXISTING ANNUAl CAPITAL COSTS or NEW PLANT (1)COMPARABlE UTILITY -----------------------------------------------RENEWALS AND ENERGY COST OF DE8T UTILITY LARGE 8RADLEY REPLACEMENTS REQUIREMENTS POWER YEAR SERVICE (2)THERt1AL(3)TI£RHAL(4)lAKE(5)SUSITNA(6)FUEL<7)0&M(8)(9)TOTAL<(0)(GWHH II)(C/KWHH (2) ==_=================================:z=====~=:=============================================:========================~===========;••:_ 1985 24,638 1,974 0 °0 47,700 23,100 0 97.412 3,502 2.8 1986 24,692 2,289 0 0 0 61,500 24,800 0 113,281 3,767 3.0 1987 24,821 2,989 °0 0 69,700 26,600 0 124,110 3,938 3.2 1988 24,910 9,946 0 0 0 81,900 29,500 0 146,256 4,106 3.6 1989 25,275 9,946 0 0 0 100,100 31,500 0 166,821 4,26;'3.9 1990 25,224 9,946 °17,562 0 98,300 34,200 484 185,716 4,446 4.2 1991 25,218 14,567 0 17,562 0 115,500 37,400 514 210,761 4,567 4.6 1992 25,214 14,567 °17,562 0 131,000 39,200 547 228,090 4,676 4.9 ISS3 25,196 14,567 0 17,562 0 148,000 41,800 581 247,706 4,781 5.2 ISS4 25,180 17,783 0 17,562 °250,400 48,000 618 359,543 4,880 7.4 1995 25,179 17,783 0 21,862 °290,700_51,100 657 407,281 4,981 8.2 1996 25,113 17,783 °21,862 728,000 155,300 61,700 25,598 1,035,356 5,090 20.3 ISS7 24,874 17,783 0 21,862 766,000 181,100 64,800 27,211 1,103,630 5,203 21.2 1998 24,715 17,783 0 21,862 766,000 212,500 68,000 28,925 1,139,785 5,317 21.4 1999 24,658 17,783 0 21,862 766,000 259,900 68,600 30,748 1,189,551 5,434 21.9 2000 24,425 17,783 °21,862 766,000 305,300 70,200 32,685 1,238,255 5,552 22.3 2001 22,014 17,783 0 21,862 766,000 353,900 74,200 34,744 1,290,503 5,632 22.9 2002 22,009 17,783 0 21,862 1,351,000 81,700 68,300 57,033 1,619,687 5,713 28.3 2003 20,983 17,783 0 21,862 1,384,000 93,500 71,900 60,626 1,670,654 5,796 28.8 2004 20,970 17,783 0 21,862 1,384,000 112,400 71,500 64,445 1,698,960 5,879 28.9 2005 20,910 17,783 0 21,862 1,384,000 131,700 81,500 68,505 1,726,260 5,964 28.9 2006 20,683 17,783 0 21,862 1,384,000 178,100 67,600 72,821 1,762,849 6,050 29.1 2007 20,666 17,783 °21,862 1,394,000 209,100 70,500 71 ,409 1,801,320 6,136 29.4 2008 20,651 17,783 0 21,862 2,119,000 0 70,800 107,186 2,357,282 6,225 37.9 2009 20,635 17,783 0 21,862 2,150,000 0 70,700 113,938 2,394,918 6,315 37.9 2010 20,619 17,783 17,348 21,862 2,150,000 12,200 76,200 122,886 2,438,898 6,406 38.1 2011 -20,597 17,783 17 ,348 21,862 2,150,000 13,200 78,900 130,627 2,450,317 6,498 37.7 2012 20,588 17,783 11 ,348 21,862 2,150,000 21,300 85,100 139,857 2,472,838 6,543 37.8 2013 14,898 17,783 59,035 21,862 2,150,000 30,600 91,800 151,857 2,537,834 6,686 38.0 2014 12,637 17,783 59,035 21,862 2,150,000 45,400 99,000 161,423 2,567,140 6,782 37.9 2015 12,637 17,783 59,035 21,862 2,150,000 66,700 106,700 111,593 2,606,310 6,880 37.9 2016 12,637 11,783 109,121 21,862 2,150,000 105,500 115,100 187,512 2,719,515 6,979 39.0 2017 12,637 17,783 109,121 21,862 2,150,000 134,500 124,100 199,325 2,769,328 7,080 39.1 2018 12,637 17,783 137,425 21,862 2,150,000 184,000 .133,900 214,769 2,872,376 7,182 40.0 2019 12,637 11,783 137,425 21,862 2,150,000 240,600 144,400 228,300 2,953,006 7,286 40.5 2020 12,637 17,783 137,425 21,862 2,150,OOQ 337,300 155,700 242,683 3,075,389 7,390 41.6 CUMULATIVE PRESENT WORTH or TOTAL COSTS (1985-2020)6,443,327 --1 12-Jun B 1 '---1 '-j "~--··l j J j I Interest Earnings Annual Sellli-annual 11.00 5.36 SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT RATE STABALIZATION ANALYSIS UTILITY LOAD FORECASTS CASE 5:LOW FINANCE WITH SUS ITNA THERMAL ALTERNATIVE RATE STABILIZATION ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------TOTAl SYSTEM TOTAL TOTAL SYSTEM TOTAL ACCRUED SYSTEM ENERGY SYSTEM SYSTEM ENERGY SYSTEM REQ.STATE STATE REQ. COSTS SALES C09T9 COSTS SALES COSTS SUBSIDY CONTRIB. CONTRIB.SUBSIDY SAYINGS CY C$MIl)CGWh)Cc/kWh)C$MIL)CGWh)Ce/kWh)ct MIl)C$MIl)Ct MIl)C$MIl)ct MIl)----------------------------------- ------- ------------------------------------------ 1985 97 3,502 ,2.8 97 3,502 2.8 100.0 100.0 1986 113 3,767 3.0 113 3,767 3.0 34 200.0 266.2 1987 124 3,938 3.2 124 3,938 3.2 22 185.5 478.7 1988 146 4,106 3.6 146 4,106 3.6 9 0.0 521.8 1989 167 4,269 3.9 167 4,269 3.9 -64 0.0 647.1 1990 186 4,446 4.2 186 4,446 4.2 0.0 718.2 1991 211 4,567 4.6 211 4,567 4.6 0.0 797.3 1992 228 4,676 4.9 228 4,676 4.9 0.0 885.0 1993 248 4,781 5.2 248 4,781 5.2 0.0 982.3 1994 360 4,880 7.4 360 4,880 7.4 0.0 1090.4 1995 407 4,981 8.2 609 4,981 12.2 0.0 1210.3 1996 1,035 5,090 20.3 646 5,090 12.7 389 0.0 933.3 389 0 1997 1,104 5,203 21.2 848 5,203 16.3 255 767.0 255 0 1998 1,140 5,317 21.4 897 5,317 16.9 243 595.4 243 0 1999 1,190 5,434 21.9 1,127 5,434 20.7 63 595.1 63 0 2000 1,238 5,552 22.3 1,183 5,552 21.3 55 602.6 55 0 2001 1,291 5,632 22.9 1,240 5,632 22.0 50 615.9 50 0 2002 1,620 5,713 28.4 1,307 5,713 22.9 313 353.8 313 0 2003 1,671 5,796 28.8 1,536 5,796 26.5 134 251.3 134 0 2004 1,699 5,879 28.9 1,605 5,879 27.3 94 180.2 94 0 2005 1,726 5,964 28.9 1,685 5,964 28.2 42 156.0 42 0 2006 1,763 6,050 29.1 1,982 6,050 32.8 0 173.1 0 21~ 2007 1,801 6,136 29.4 2,091 6,136 34.1 0 1~2.2 0 289 2008 2,357 6,225 37.9 2,212 6,225 35.5 146 59.8 146 0 2009 2,395 6,315 37.9 2,332 6,315 36.9 63 .0 63 0 2010 2,439 6,406 38.1 2,459 6,406 38.4 0 .0 0 20 2011 2,450 6,498 37.7 2,580 6,498 39.7 0 .0 0 130 2012 2,473 6,50\3 37.8 2,752 6,543 42.1 0 .0 0 279 2013 2,538 6,686 38.0 3,196 6,686 47.8 0 .0 0 659 2014 2,567 6,782 37.9 3,348 6,782 49.4 0 .0 0 781 2015 2,606 6,880 37.9 3,524 6,880 51.2 0 .0 0 918 2016 2,720 6,979 39.0 3,734 6,979 53.5 0 .0 0 1,014 2017 2,769 7,080 39.1 3,987 7,080 56.3 0 .0 0 1,217 2018 2,872 7,182 40.0 4,203 7,182 58.5 0 .Q 0 1,331 2019 2,953 7,286 40.5 4,469 7,286 61.3 0 .0 0 1,516 2020 3,075 7,390 41.6 5,204 7,390 70.4 0 .0 0 2,128---------------------------- 1847 485.5 1,847 10,501 J "1 -]~----]'J J ...l ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY SUSITNA FINANCIAL ANALYSIS COMPARISON OF RAILBELT COST OF ENERGY 20202015 -- - - - - - --WITHOUT SUSITNA _._-.-WITH SUSITNA ----BASE CASE Wfftt¥\')UT SUSITNA 201020052000 CASE 5:LOW FI NANCE80 75 70 65 60a: W 55:=-oJ:0.3:50u.~ O~45....z (l)W 4000 O...J w<35...Jzm-<::::E 30a:o<z0.-25::::E 0 0 20 15 10 5 0 1985 1990 1995 YEAR JUNE 12,1985 ~.WITH SUSITNA 5.LOW FINANCE ", SUS I TNA POWER SALES ~EGOT I AT IONS,·YEARS 1 QSS-2000 GUfSd,SOSlTNA 8ASE FOR THE TOTAL RAIL8ELT REbiON J08 NUMRER 23038 Obl04/85 06:33 A~ BASEo ON DATA PREP J08 23SQa DATED 06/04785 ************************************************************ GENERATION SYSTEM NUKE cOil NGAscT OIL cT nIESEL COMCVt TYPE 1 2 3 4 5 0 -OpTMZING 0 lqq2 tqa5 0 0 lq6~ peT TRIM 0 0 0 0 0 0 TYPES 7-to *** r I l, -l~eQ MW b ~q q~~1~1 36 ~55 4~SUM:11>~ ***********************.***********************************************ToTAL CAPA9. YEA R L V M WAD 0 1 ·f t 0 ~s +TIEs **************************.*************••*************** 85 87 88 r Sq I ------.--------------------,r-r:"l"~- qO qz q3 !q4 ....... 95 I""" ",WITH SUSITNA 5.LOW FINANCE SUSITNA PO~ER SALES NEGOTIATIO~S,YEARS 1~Q'-2020, GUSB,SOSITNA BASE FOR THE ToTAL RAIL8ELt REGION, JOB NUMBER 30038 06/01/85 10:0Q AM BASED ON DATA PREP JOB 300tl ~ATED 06701/85 ************************************************************ *** TYPES 7-10 NUKE COAL NGASCT OIL cT DIESEL CORCTC TYPE 1 2 3 4 5 b GENERATIO~~SYSTE:~ -oPTMZING 0 199&1996 0 0 1446 peT TRIM 0 0 0 0 0 0 lqqS MW 0 1~603 l~l 20 ~~e l~O su~=lQ~~ **************************************************~******************** """R ** ToTAL CAPAB. YEA R L Y M WAD D I T ION S +TIES ********************* ******* ***************************** -'''''13------------------------------------ 4 5 -1 ", WITH SUSITNA 5.LOW FINANCE i ........*.****•••**.*••iif._*.*••W._.*_.i ._*Wi*.i.*ii_*.*.i*i iii*i i*i*i**iii *llt * **-****************-******-******************************************** r-.tihi ADO a a 522 0 0 0 15/0 5010\:2042 ...w RET 0 -'Ie -603 -lql -20 -358 -5 SUM:-1225 ****'1******-**:if***.********i ••-****************.****",,**- 2020 0 25 522 0 0 0 1745 SU~:22q2 ~peT fOI 0.0 1.1 22.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 70.1 50":100 PCI WITHOUT SUSITNA ,,5.LOW FINANCE GUTTB,THERMAL BASE FOR THE TOTAL RAIL8ElT REGIONJoeNUMBER32q8bObl04/85 08:~9 A~ BASED ON DATA PRE~Joe 32450 DATED 06/04/85 ************************************************************ GENERATION SYSTE~ NUKE COll NGASCT OIL CT OIESEl COMCYt TYPE 1 2 3 q 5 b OPTMZING 0 1992 1985 0 0 1988 PCT TRIM 0 0 0 u 0 0 TYPES 7-10 *** 1984 MW 0 54 4~3 197 36 358 q5 SU~=1133 *********************************************************************** 'WITHOUT SUSITNA "5.LOW FINANCE SUSITNA POWER SALES NEGOTIATIONS,YEARI 1 •••-2020 GUTS,THERMAL.BASE FOR THE TOTAL RA Il8El T R£,'ION JOB HUMBER 10250 0'/01/85 01.23 A~ BISEO ON DATA PREP J08 _)0190.DATED 00/01/85 *****************-****************************************** GENERATION SYSTEM OPTMZING 0 19Qo 1990 0 0 1990 PCT TRIM 0 0 0 0 0 0 TYPES 7-10 *** r r I 1. -'"\1445 "'w 6 Z71 003 141 zo 358 180 SUM=Ib25 :t********************************************************************** TUTAl CAPA8. YEA R L Y -M W A 0 0 I flO N ~+11ES ********,~*************************************-*~*.****** Ib21 1507 1010 158b l52\) 1120 1718 tlt3 1621 164,4 ,-------......._._..""'@._--=-~--~_._---_._.=-=----~-----~--------- ,.... I - 1131 1731 lb8b 1686 1112 1840 1840 1840 1840 1921 Itl27 .2127 **************-******************************************************** -i*******i*'.**.***********i**.*************************************.*** M.ADD 0 1200 522 0 0 0 0 SU~~1722 MW REf 0 -48 -603 -191 -20 -558 0 SUMS -1220 ************ ********************************************* -4020 0 1425 522 0 0 0 180 ~U~;2127 teT TOT 0.0 67.0 24.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.5 SUM=100 peT FUEL PRICE 5.row FINANCE Fuel Price Analyzed Replaces Basic Analysis Fuel I""'" ! For Low Finance analysis fuel prices are the same as the Base Analysis. 1 1 1 ~i~r;~T~T~---ffi~z I'tI ::::t;-t t;-t txI E:en (1)0 P'PI 0 0 _PI (1) (1)PI rt ~.... 11l til PI ::J I<. rt ()til PI ::J~.....()(1).....m I'tI en ::J 0 (1)::Jt H I1j rt ()0 G)G)I1j 8 '..:::.....PI !!:(1) PI PI ~;::;s .....S',~,(1)~~IGl Q ~~.~.Ii _~ !-'H to')Hi ....PlPIm...:;or .....PI PI .....I PI PI til <:a .........· ~PI PI ::J a :R'>I'tI m G)I-'.....(1)'<rt ><rt 0 0"0'11 PI'..:::~rt rt m ..... '0 .....(1)::;s 11 ().....til til ~'<(1).....<: 0 0 0......0 0 -.....::J 11 m ..... 11 ::;s 0 PI (1)til m rt rt (1).....'< .'oI-'Nw1111~ I-' 01\01001".0\ l--+-I I ....~-!.I I I -+-··f---·-~o·:I--rlESCRIPTION I I I I I •,.I I I I -I I I -----, 1999 Gas Peak1x X .. I I I __• I +-..,I I --.-_..,--- XIXIXIXIIIX r--~Gi----r-·J·-~~~-......-x _..~---. x x X X ~~-l~-JI~~-e:-----L~+_~--r:I .I I I ---><I~-t-t-t~--~··~--·-·_~--~--;;::~~~:~;'~;;i~;-----I __~_-_~-_-.----.I X x 4 CEA-Enstar Gas Pric3 I ,~X ..+--t----t-------1---~.~=-l-_---'--~.-__---x-...._~.:.-:~~~~=-=~~~~~.~~~~--~?~_~_·=~i.~~~~~=~~·.~~~_..-~ x X 6 Nenana 0%I-I I I _.--._--+-----..--.-.._~.._.-.0-''-------..-....----.....---.-...-..-----.-.-.----.-.--.--.-.---~- X X 7 Beluga Low Coal Price _~..._..---_......-.--.--.---.....-....-----.---...---.------..-.....--.---...---I 9 Matanuska ____~~_~_"__•••••_0,••._,_••_••_h ••__-,.._,••,_.h.__..--.-_..-_-_.,-,I 9 No Coal Export ---~~--_.-~--i-~~I:-~-=~~t=-~~~·--.•~.~1.-.:~.~~.·~~~~~.~.~·i~~j_~.~e::~~_~:!n 1 y) 11 10%Financing (Both)....- --.-.-..-..---.-.----..--"----·-·······------1 12 5%Inflation ----·_lo--1 4·_·.._~-..-.-.-.,.1--.------------.--.-..-.--'" 13 Keetna__~1_~.=~~J=~..-..--t~~]2~1~~~~!=~4~~~~~-~~di~y~-..~~~e_3.rd.~?-_~~_I 15 Phase I Only -·~---·"T-·---·-T--""1--·'''[~:~~=~[.i6''',Di~m~~-d Coal ~---+-+-·-..-l-f-+-~~.>< .~Ix ..~xlI(.__.--t--1-- L.l-i I i.. J 1 1 -1 1 1 I J -)-'--CC"-Cl "'),'----1 ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY SUSITNA FINANCIAL ANALYSIS COMPARISON OF RAIl8ELT COST OF POWER ($000) CASE 6:LOW INfUTlON 12-Jun-85 WITHOUT SUS ITNA PAGE 1 OF 2 EXISTING ANNUAL CAPITAL COSTS OF NEW PLANT (1)COMPARA81E UTILITY -----------------------------------------------RENEWALS AND ENERGY COST OF DEBT UTILITY LARGE BRADLEY REPLACEMENTS REQUIREMENTS POWER YEAR SERVICE (2)THERMAL(3)T~RMAL(4)lAKE(5)SUSITNA(6)FUEUn 0&M(8)(9)TOTAUI0)(6WHH 10 (C/KWHH 12) ====~====:=====~=======~===~======~==:=======••==:=:==========~==============~===========================2====~==.====~==.====2==.~== 1985 24,638 1,754 0 0 0 47.700 ?~'nn n 97,i92 3,502 Z.Bc.v,avv v 1986 24,692 2,024 0 0 0 60,800 24,500 0 112,016 3,767 3.0 1987 24,821 2,614 0 0 0 68,000 26,000 0 121,435 3,938 3.1 1988 24,910 8,572 0 0 0 78,900 28,400 0 140,782 4,106 3.4 1989 25,275 8,572 0 0 0 95,200 30,000 0 159,047 4,269 3.7 1990 25,224 8,572 0 17,562 0 92,400 32,200 484 176,442 4,446 4.0 1991 25,218 12,280 0 17,562 0 107,300 34,700 508 197,568 4,567 4.3 1992 25,214 12,280 0 17,562 0 120,100 36,000 534 211 ,690 4,676 4.5 1993 25,196 12,280 0 17,562 0 134,000 37,900 560 227,498 4,781 4.8 1994 25,180 14,767 0 17,562 0 224,000 42,900 588 324,997 4,880 6.7 1995 25,179 14,767 162,862 21,862 0 236,700 72,800 13,171 547,346 4,981 11.0 1996 25,113 14,767 162,862 21,862 0 265,600 71,800 13,836 575,939 5,090 11.3 1997 24,874 14,767 292,470 21,962 0 264,900 105,000 28,373 752,246 5,203 14.5 1998 24,715 14,767 292,470 21,862 0 294,600 110,600 29,792 788,806 5,317 14.8 1999 24,658 14,767 455,451 21,862 0 278,400 143,100 45,563 983,800 5,434 18.1 2000 24,425 14,767 455,451 21,862 0 309,400 151,100 47,841 1,024,846 5,552 18.5 2001 22,014 14,767 455,451 21,862 0 342,200 158,400 50,233 1,064,927 5,632 18.9 2002 22,009 14,767 455,451 21,862 0 386,100 159,300 52,744 1,112,233 5,713 19.5 2003 20,983 14,767 617 ,944 21,862 0 346,500 202,800 72,741 1,297,597 5,796 22.4 2004 20,970 14,767 617,944 21,862 0 379,900 212,900 76,378 1,344,621 5,879 22.9 2005 20,910 14,767 617,944 21,862 0 417,600 225,100 80,197 1,398,380 5,964 23.4 2006 20,683 14,767 901,864 21,862 0 397,900 267,600 103,854 1,629,531 6,050 26.9 2007 20,666 14,767 812,753 21,862 0 440,400 281,300 110,165 1,701,913 6,136 27.7 2008 20,651 14,767 824,196 21,862 0 486,900 297,700 116,847 1,782,913 6,225 28.6 200s 20,635 14,767 836,192 21,862 0 531,200 312,800 123,922 1,861,317 6,315 29.5 2010 20,619 14,767 836,192 21,862 0 590,400 328,700 130,118 1,942,657 6,406 30.3 2011 20,597 14,767 936,192 21,862 0 643,100 345,400 136,624 2,018,541 6,498 31.1 2012 20,598 14,767 BSO,Oas 21,862 0 707,900 367,800 144,881 2,127,787 6,543 32.5 2013 14,898 14,767 1,104,907 21,862 0 667,400 435,000 179,348 2,438,191 6,686 36.5 2014 12,637 14,767 1,104,907 21,862 °728,100 457,600 188,315 2,528,198 6,782 37.3 2015 12,637 14,767 1,104,907 21,862 0 797,100 484,400 197,731 2,633,404 6,880 38.3 2016 12,637 14,767 1,121,799 21,862 0 871,800 506,100 209,351 2.'75~,317 6,979 39.5 2017 12,637 14,767 1,139,536 21,862 0 959,900 539,100 221,640 2,909,442 7,080 41.1 2018 12,637 14,767 1,139,536 21,862 0 1,044,600 566,800 232,722 3,032,924 7,182 42.2 2019 12,637 14,767 1,139,536 21,862 0 1,156,100 595,800 244,358 3,185,060 7,286 43.7 2020 12,637 14,767 1,494,964 21,862 0 1,113,700 701,800 294,546 3,654,275 7,390 49.4 CUMUlATIVE PRESENT WORTH OF TOTAL COSTS (19BS-2020)7,223,283 ·~·--"1 '~~~-l """"'1 ""~'1 ALASkA POWER AUTHORITY SUSITNA FINANCIAL ANALYSIS COMPARISON OF RAILBELT COST OF POWER ($000) CASt 6:LOW INFLATION 12-Jun-85 WITH SUSITNA PAGE 2 OF 2 EXISTING ANNUAL CAPITAL COSTS OF NEN PLANT (I)\COMPARABlE UTILITY -----------------------------------------------RENEWALS ANO ENERGY COST OF DEBT UTILITY LARGE BRAOlEY REPlACEMENTS AEOU I REMENTS POWER YEAR SERVICE (2)THERHAL(3)THERI1AL(4)LAI<E(5)SUSITNA(6)rU£L<7>0&11(8)(9)TOTAL<10>(GWHH 11)(C/KWHH 12) =:=~::=s~===~=========:==============:::===============e ============:======================================:==:===~=~==.=~=======••=2 1985 Z4,638 !,754 0 t\4).......A_23,iOG 0 97,192 3,502 2.8v"',IV\} 1986 24,692 2,024 0 0 0 60,800 24,500 0 112,016 3,767 3.0 1987 24,821 2,614 0 0 0 68,000 26,000 0 121,435 3,938 3.1 1988 24,910 8,572 0 0 0 78,900 28,400 0 140,782 4,106 3.4 1989 25,275 8,572 0 0 0 95,200 30,000 0 159,047 4,269 3.7 1990 25,224 8,572 0 17,562 0 92,400 32,200 484 176,442 4,446 4.0 1991 25,218 12,280 0 17,562 0 107,300 34,700 508 197,568 4,567 4.3 1992 25,214 12,280 0 17 ,562 0 120,100 36,000 534 211,690 4,676 4.5 1993 25,196 12,280 0 17,562 0 134,000 37,900 560 227,498 4,781 4.8 1994 25,180 14,767 0 17,562 0 224,000 42,900 588 321,997 4,880 6.7 1995 25,179 14,767 0 21,862 0 256,800 45,200 618 364,426 4,981 7.3 1996 25,113 14,767 0 21,862 534,000 135,500 53,800 21,349 806,391 5,090 15.8 1997 24,874 14,767 0 21,862 564,000 156,100 55,900 22,416 859,919 5,203 16.5 1998 24,715 14,767 0 21,862 564,000 180,900 57,900 23,537 887,681 5,317 16.7 1999 24,658 14,767 0 21,862 564,000 218,500 57,700 24,714 926,201 5,434 17.0 2000 24,425 14,767 0 21,862 564,000 253,500 58,300 25,949 962,803 5,552 17.3 2001 22,014 14,767 0 21,862 564,000 290,200 60,800 27,247 1,000,890 5,632 17.8 2002 22,009 14,767 0 21,862 966,000 66,200 55,400 44,209 1,190,447 5,713 20.8 2003 20,983 14,767 0 21,862 989,000 74,800 57,500 46,420 1,225,332 5,796 21.1 2004 20,970 14,767 0 21,862 989,000 88,800 61,300 48,741 1,245,440 5,879 21.2 2005 20,910 14,767 0 21,862 989,000 102,800 63,600 51,178 1,264,117 5,964 21.2 2006 20,683 14,767 0 21,862 989,000 137,300 52,100 53,737 1,289,449 6,050 21.3 2007 20,666 14,767 0 21,862 989,000 159,100 53,700 56,423 1,315,518 6,136 21.4 2008 20,651 14,767 0 21,862 1,448,000 0 53,200 77,245 1,635,725 6,225 26.3 2009 20,635 14,767 0 21,862 1,479,000 0 52,500 81,107 1,669,871 6,315 26.4 2010 20,619 14,767 12,605 21,862 1,479,000 8,900 55,900 86,456 1,700,109 6,406 26.5 2011 20,597 14,767 12,605 21,862 1,479,000 9,500 57,200 90,779 1,706,310 6,498 26.3 2012 20,598 14,767 12,605 21,862 1,479,000 15,200 60,900 95,318 1,720,240 6,543 26.3 2013 14,898 14,767 27,198 21,862 1,479,000 21,600 64,900 101,582 1,745,806 6,686 26.1 2014 12,637 14,767 27,198 21,862 1,479,000 31,700 69,100 106,661 1,762,924 6,782 26.0 2015 12,637 14,767 27,198 21,862 1,479,000 46,000 73,600 111,994 1,787,057 6,880 26.0 2016 12,637 14,767 60,962 21,862 1,479,000 71,800 78,400 121,062 1,860,510 6,979 26.7 2017 12,637 14,767 60,982 21,862 1,479,000 90,400 83,500 127,115 1,890,263 7,080 26.7 2018 12,637 14,767 79,606 21,862 1,479,000 122,200 88,900 135,383 1,954,354 7,182 27.2 2019 12,637 14,767 79,606 21,862 1,479,000 157,800 94,700 142,152 2,002,524 7,286 27.5 2020 12,637 14,767 79,606 21,862 1,479,000 218,500 100,900 149,259 2,076,531 7,390 28.1 CUMULATIVE PRESENT WORTH OF TOTAL COSTS (1985-2020)6,394,418 J 1 12-Jun Interest Earnings Annu81 Semi-annual J 9.50 4.64 -)1 SUSITNA HVDROELECTRIC PROJECT RATE STABALIZATION ANALVSIS UTILITY LOAD FORECASTS CASE 6:lOW INFlATION '--D -~-l 1 j WITH SUSITNA THERMAL ALTERNATIVE RATE STABiliZATION --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL SYSTEM TOTAL TOTAL SYSTEM TOTAL ACCRUED SYSTEM ENERGV SYSTEM SYSTEM ENERGV SYSTEM REQ.STATE STATE REQ. COSTS SALES COSTS COSTS SALES COSTS SUBSIDY CONTRIB.CONTRIB.SUBSIDY SAVINGSCVItMIL>IGWh)Ie/kWh)It MIL>IGWh)Ie/kWh)U MIL>It MIL>1$MIL>It MIL>It MIL>------------....----------------------------------------------------------------_....._---- 1985 97 3,502 2.B 97 3,502 2.8 100.0 100.0 1~6 112 3,761 3.0 112 3,161 3.0 34 103.9 170.1 1987 121 3,938 3.1 121 3,938 3.1 22 0.0 163.6 1988 141 4,106 3.4 141 4,106 3.4 9 0.0 169.7 1989 159 4,269 3.7 159 4,269 3.1 -64 0.0 253.2 1990 176 4,446 4.0 116 4,446 4.0 0.0 217.3 1991 198 4,561 4.3 1~4,561 4.3 0.0 303.6 1992 21Z 4,616 4.5 212 4,616 4.5 0.0 332.5 1993 228 4,181 4.8 228 4,781 4.8 0.0 364.1 1994 325 4,880 6.7 325 4,880 6.7 0.0 398.7 1995 364 4,981 1.3 541 4,981 11.0 0.0 436.5 1996 806 5,090 15.8 576 5,090 11.3 231 0.0 236.7 231 °1997 860 5,203 16.5 152 5,203 14.5 108 146.5 108 °1998 888 5,317 16.7 789 5,317 14.8 99 56.9 99 0 1999 926 5,434 17.0 984 5,434 18.1 0 62.3 0 58 2000 963 5,552 17.3 1,025 5,552 18.5 0 68.3 0 62 2001 1,001 5,632 17.8 1,065 5,632 18.9 0 74.7 0 64 2002 1,190 5,713 20.8 1,112 5,713 19.5 78 .0 78 0 2003 1,225 5,796 21.1 1,298 5,796 22.4 0 .0 0 72 2004 1,245 5,879 21.2 1,345 5,879 22.9 0 .0 0 99 2005 1,264 5,964 21.2 1,398 5,964 23.4 0 .0 0 134 2006 1,2~6,050 21.3 1,629 6,050 26.9 0 .0 0 339 2007 1,316 6,136 21.4 1,702 6,136 27.7 0 .0 0 386 2008 1,636 6,225 26.3 1,783 6,225 28.6 0 .0 0 147 2009 1,610 6,315 26.4 1,861 6,315 29.5 0 .0 0 192 2010 1,100 6,406 26.5 1,943 6,406 30.3 °.0 0 243 2011 1,706 6,498 26.3 2,019 6,498 31.1 0 .0 0 312 2012 1,720 6,543 26.3 2,128 6,543 32.5 °.0 0 408 2013 1,746 6,686 26.1 2,438 6,686 36.5 0 .0 0 692 2014 1,163 6,782 26.0 2,528 6,782 37.3 °.0 °765 2015 1,187 6,880 26.0 2,633 6,880 38.3 0 .0 0 846 2016 1,861 6,979 26.7 2,758 6,979 39.5 °.0 0 898 2017 1,890 7,080 26.7 2,909 7,080 41.1 0 .0 0 1,019 2018 1,954 7,182 27.2 3,033 7,182 42.2 0 .0 °1,079 2019 2,003 7,286 27.5 3,185 7,286 43.7 0 .0 0 1,183 2020 2,077 7,390 28.1 3,654 7,390 49.4 0 .0 °1,578 ---------------------------- 515 203.9 515 10,576 1 ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY SUSITNA FINANCIAL ANALYSIS COMPARISON OF RAILBELT COST OF ENERGY CASE 6:LOW INFLATION ,,, I .,.""."." ~..~"..,- ,._.......... - - - - - - - -..WITHOUT SUSITNA -'--'-WITH SUSITNA ----.....BASE CASE WITHOUT SUSITNA ,, .......-"." ,.~~~-,,..._---;'.r~,._-----~--.-J -- .__..._~-f='==-=-~--I 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 YEAR JUNE 12,1985 -- ""'"i WITH SUSITNA -·6.LON INFLATION SUSITN4 POWER SALES io4EGOTIATIONS,·YEARS lQeS-,2000 GUTSd,SOSI1NA BASE FOR THE ToTAL RAILBELT REGI0~ JOB NUMRER 23b38 Obl04/85 06:33 A~ BASED ON OA1A PREP J08 235q8 DATED o6/04/8~ ***~******************************************************** GENERATION SYSTE~ NUKE COAL NGASCT OIL cT ~IESF.L COMCyt TlPE 1 2 3 ~5 6 TYPES 7-10 *** -l~~q ~w 0 ~~qq~1~7 jc 358 4~SUM:1153 ***********************************************************************-i ", -- YR ** 85 86 87 188 C)I CJZ toTAL CAPAg. YEA R L V M WAD 0 tTl 0 ~s +tIES *********************************** ********************** 45* 1117 llbd 23*_ 1171 132* 13\)3 1303 90"; 13'51 87* 1400 1358 1358 25* 1383 1425 -------------------------------------" r I \ r WITH SUSITNA 6.LOW INFLATION .SUSITNA PO~ER SALES NEGOTIATIONS,YEARS lQQh-a020, Guse,SUSrTNA BASE FOR THE TOTAL RAILBELT REGION,Joe NUMBER 36b38 06/01/85 10:Oq A~ BASED ON DATA P~EP JOB 36611 ~ATED 06/01785 ************************************************************ GENERATION SYSTEM NUKE COAL NGASC1 OIL c1 DIESEL CORCTC TYPE 1 2 3 4 5 b OPTMZING 0 199b 1996 0 0 Iqq, peT TRIM 0 0 0 0 0 0 TYPES 7-10 *** lqqS MW 0 13 &03 l~l 20 ~5e leo su~=14~5 *********************************************************~*************ToTAL CAPAB. -y"P!iR-------gy-"I"E---rA--pIIR~'T'L----g't~·"'·~··----"CM~wr------"'I'A-,.;D:-""I";D:--.I-....T.....,.I--,.,O;--rN:'""""1!!·sr--"".:i+~T"I"'I!E""!S!"""---- **************** ********************* ********************** ", WITH SUSITNA 6.LOW INFLATION ••i_.i ••_••••_'_""."'__'.**",.__,__,._,.__,__**-*,********-*-*** *********************************************************************** Ii ••i'.iii.i.*_•.•.*._... 522 0 0 0 22.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 ~Mri ADO 0 0 522 0 0 0 1510 S~q:2042 ~w RET 0 -Q8 -b03 -lql -20 -358 -S SUM:-1225 '·-;r;nE.i*.ii*.*_*.i*.i*i_i**ii*••*** 1363 116d 1400 *** TYPE'S 7-10 1358 1358 25* 1351 1303 117 1 87* SUSITNA PO~ER SALES NEGOTIATIONS,'YEARS 1985-2000 GUTTS,THERMAL BASE FOR THE TOTAL RlILBELT REGION JOB NUMBER 3248b 0&/04/85 08:59 AM BASED ON OATA PRE~JOB 32450 DATED Ob104/85 ************************************************************ TOTAL CAPAB. WITHOUT SUSITNA -6.LOW INFLATION 1177 YR YEA R L Y ~~ADD I T [0 ~s +TIES **************** ******************************************* 1984 M~0 S4 4~3 197 3&358 45 SU~=1133 *********************************************************************** NUKE CO~L NGASCT OIL CT OIESEL cOMeyc TYPE 1 2 l Q 5 b 88 87 . GENERATION SYSTE~ OPTMZING 0 1992 1965 0 0 1986 PCT TRIM 0 0 0 u 0 0 85 200* j025 WITHOUT SUSITNA 6.LOW INFLATION-, aUSITNA PO"EI~.SAUS NEGOTIATIONS,YEAR'1 ••'-2020 GUTB,THERMAI~BASE FOR THE TOTAL RAtLBELT RE"IONJoeNUMBER3025000/01/85 0'123 AM BASED ON DATA PREP JOB _10196.DATED 06/01/85 ************************************************************ 1995 M~0 213 603 191 26 358 180 SUM=1625 ***************III *-**-*.*************************************************** rUTAL CAPAB. r r t, GENERATION SYSTE~ NUKE COAL NGAScf OIL CT DIESEL COMCYC TYPE 1 .2 3 4 5 6 OPTMZING 0 19q6 1996 0 0 1990 peT TRIM 0-·-0-0 0 0 0 TYPES 7-10 *** YR ** YEA R L.t.M WAD 0 I T ION ~+fIES ********,Ir*"~***********************************.******** 1424 10ZI 1567 1610 1004 1586 l5z\) 1120 1718 1113 1621 164-4 " WITHOUT SUSITNA 6.LOW INFLATION 168b 1686 1731 ---------·------------------------!<......1-7~3,..1...----- .....8, 1X 87 q IX 87 r -'0, 11 -'.2 IX 87 - .2127 **************~******************************************************** ****************************************************-*******--****--*** M~ADO 0 1200 522 0 0 0 0 SU~~1722 ~i REf b -48 -603 -191 -20 -358 USQR=-1220 ****** ****************************** ********************* ~U2U 0 1425 522 U U U 160 3U~;ZIZT teT TOT 0.0 ~7.0 24.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 e.s SUM=100 peT .- - FUEL PRICE 6.UJW INFLATION Fuel Price Analyzed Replaces Basic Analysis Fuel - Base Case Fuels inflated at 5%. .".. ", ANCHORAGE -APA COUK INLET IN 199q NATURAL GASr(S/MMBTLJ) NO~INAL ~~EAl PRICt: YEAR f'RICE £lNF-S.OO't) ******************** (~1985)(5) 198~2.000 2.000 198b 2.150 2.258 1987 2.240 2.470 t~88 2.170 2.512 198~2.250 2.135 l'~qO ~.368 3.0?2 lqtJl 2.492 3.340 ]992 2.623 3.691 ]y93 2.7b1 4.079 19 Q 4 2.90b 4.':i08 lqqS ~.058 4.'182 ]'o:l9b 3.219 ~h~Ob t 9'n 3.388 &.084 tq9ij 3.56b b.·/?4 t';~99 3.153 1.431 2000 3.9'50 8.212 2005 4.840 12.843 2010 5.930 20.0R2 ......2015 b.851 29.bOd 2020 7.910 43.&'34 ----~,--- - ,.... ! " '. r-APA NENANA I COAL PkICE ($/MMBTlJJ """, NOP.<tINAL fotEAL PRICE YI;AR PRICE (JNF-5.00X) ********************. (51985)(S) 198':>1.910 1.910 19Bb 1.939 2.03& 1987 1.969 2.170 1988 1.qq9 2.314 1989 2.029 2.46& 19QO 2.060 /2.02'1 1991 2.091 2.802 1992 2.123 2.981 199j 2.15';)~.lR:S 1994 2.]8"3.39.5 I. 19Q,:>2.2?0 3.&10 19q&2.2C;3 3.854 1997 2.287 4.10b 1'198 2.321 4.37& 1999 2.355 4.&63 2000 2.390 4.969 2005 2.570 0.8'9 2010 2.760 9.347 201~2.917 12.~6S 2020 3.210 17 .708 11fIl!*lll -, APA bELUGA ExPORT COAL PRICE lS/''''MBTU) ~ NOMINAL REAL PRICE r-YE:AR PRICE (lNF-5.00t) ******************** (SlqAS)($) ".... I 1985 l.b70 1.670 19A6 1.670 1.754 1987 1.670 1.841 1988 1.670 1.933 1989 1.670 2.03u 19QO 1.670 2.1!1 1991 1.670 2.23ij 19C12 1.670 2.350 19C13 1.&70 2.461 19C14 1.&70 2.S Q l 1"1 Cl 5 1.670 2.1?0 19"6 1.670 2.856 1~97 1'.670 2.999 199M 1.&70 3.111"1 1999 1.670 3.300 2000 1.670 3.472 2005 1.920 5.0Clq 2010 2.160 7.315 2015 2.'310 9.983 2020 2.410 13.0251 ,...,. __________,:=---._,I'II"'.ll<i -~_ ., FMUS CuAL PRICE (S/MMBTU) NOMINAL IoolEAL PRIer: Yt4R PRICE UNF-:S.OOX) ******************** (51985)($) 1985 2.130 2.130 1986 2.42:S 2.54b 1987 2.1&0 3.043 1~8ti 3.141 3.636 19A~3.576 4.340 :-1990 4.070 5.194 lY9t 4.13U 5.535 lyQ2 4.1 9 1 5.698 1')Q3 4.253 6.284 1"194 4.316 6.6Clb 19 Q ';)4.380 7.13" 19 Q b 4.44b 7.bO~....,e,97 '4.513 8.10':) 199a 4.581 8.638 19q9 4.650 9.207 f""2000 4.720 9.81.5 '.2'oO~~.080 13.479 ~. 201U 5';450 18.450 2ul~~.879 25.407 (i!iQ. 2020 6.341 34.974 ,.....'. ..- ~. 1""-. i '. G, bVEA. FUEL uIL PRICl::.-(S/MMBTU) NOMINAL REAl.pRICt:.-Yl::.AR PRICE (lNf-5.00X) ****.*************.* (51985)(5) I~ 1985 4.350 4.350 -1~86 4.419 4.ol.l0 1987 4.489 4.949 198b 4.500 5.279 1C~8q 4.b30 5.02M ,....1990 4.70(J 5.'/99 19q1 4.100 0.298 19C12 4.700 0.013 ~ 1qq3 4.700 b.944 19 Q 4 4.700 7.2Ql ,yq~4.700 7.6c;b 1';'Qb 4.7159 8.139 ~19q7 '4.81 b 8.b,2 lq9b 4.878 9.198 19 Q q 4.'139 9.778-2000 ~.OOO 10.395 2005 S.250 13.930 r~ 2010 5.513 18.bb8 2015 5.789 25.01b 2020 6.078 33.520 ..- - " ...,.. " ., J -l 1 )J J --J ~l ))j 1 i ~Z "0 :B:t"i b ~i.b r:sFT';b:l ~wro0::r PJ 0 -PJ ro PJ rt ~~PJrt~11~t:t-3 U1t11 ~ii:Irt()til PJ ::s ::r ~-()ro "0 en ::s 0 ro ::s H h:j rt ()0(;)(;)I'Ij t-3 "<:~-PJ~ro PJ PJ C ::s 1-'-0 0 ro PJ PJ ~~~.~.11 ::s l-'HI~nl gI ~.e!:I:~~~(11 PJ til <S I-'~- trj (;)1-'~-ro "<:rt ><0:0"0 11 PJ"<:::tIrt rt til ~- to ro I ::s 11 ()~.til til C"<:ro ~.< 0 o.~.0 0 -~.::s 11 til ~- 11 o PJ ro til til rt rt ro I-'I<: .' ~, 1 I 1999 Gas Peak~ I\)w ~ .1:>0 ~ U1 ~~~~I~I~ I-'oIIDlco.-...I.m I------....I 0 __1-I __a.=--+-1-11-1 -+--••!I·I " ~~ ~ ~ ~ --+-------~.-.----.-+---.---·..1 ~ ~ ~ ~- .. ~~- ---...---~I-·~-- r~;~ ~·--~--I-=r~-' ~2 1996 Gas Peak• I I-----+--+---t---.-.--..--......--_.-----.--.---.-.-.-.--.----.----I I I -1--------t-t;t><~L_.~mped Gas Price I----•I I ---~f-><=-.--:'~~i._.:~~~~=i-::~~::~~~~~i~tl?_~~~-=-_I 6 Nenana 0% ••~__...__~..••.•.~,._~._••....'4••_.•.•.....•·__•.··_,· 7 Beluga Low Coal Price._---._....._.~....'".-.'.,.'...~......_---, 9 Matanuska•..-..-'-.-.-"---''''--'~-''''-----.--.--I 9 No Coal Export I I..-.M-·±:=fTI:~==E~E--r~;~{~~i~~i~}~~littfL~nly)I ~I 1 12 5%Inflation..1-...-..-.-----".--..._.-.a -_....-_...-...--_...--......"........-. i 13 Keetna-I--.or--_.-.-.-'-"-"'--..__.--_..---..-----__---_. ~~i ~~~~~~14 Bradley Lake 3rd Unit -"--r-'...------...-..-...-......--.......---.-...........'_"'n'"....------I 15 Phase I Only --_._._---~---..--.,..-_.-_.._-_.~-.__.-~-_---.___.~....•~..-._-.-.._-_.•._-.."--_.--..,. ,I ~I 16 Diamond Coalr~.-_.__... ~t~I I I •-II---+-~---.----f----...--.- ~~ -~----.._-....-.-f.--.--..·1-·...1...---..··_..·..·-1 ~(.~l~i I I IL~,' J J D -)-1 --]J )]J 1 J "J 1 j " ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY SUSITNA FINANCIAL ANALYSIS COMPARISON OF RAILBELT COST or POWER <$000) CASE 7:HATANUSKA 12-Jun-85 WITHOUT SUSITNA PAGE 1 OF 2 EXISTING ANNUAL CAP IT At COSTS OF NEW PLANT <1)COMPARABLE UTILITY -----------------------------------------------RENEWALS AND ENERGY COST OF' DEBT UTILITY LARGE BRADLEY REPLACEMENTS REQUIREMENTS POWER YEAR SERVICE (2)THERHAl(3)THERHAL(4)LAKE(5)SUSITNA(6)FUEL (7)0&1'1(8)(9)TOTAl(10)(GWHH 11)(C/KWHH 12) ,==:===z=======:=.:~.==2 ===:===========~======z===================================~==========:==:::=:==============================z== 1985 24,638 1,974 0 0 0 47,700 23,100 0 97.412 3,502 2.8 1986 24,69Z 2,289 0 0 0 61,500 24,800 0 113,281 3.767 3.0 1987 24,821 2,989 0 0 0 69.700 26,600 0 124,110 3,938 3.2 1988 24,910 9,946 0 0 0 81,900 29,500 0 146,256 4,106 3.6 1989 25,275 9,946 0 0 0 100,100 31,500 °166,821 4,269 3.9 1990 25,224 9,946 0 17,562 0 98,300 34,200 484 185,716 4,446 4.2 1991 25,218 14,567 0 17,562 °115,500 37,400 514 210,761 4,567 4.6 1992 25,214 14,567 148,003 17,562 0 118,400 56,200 9,992 389,938 4,676 8.3 1993 25,196 14,567 148,003 17,562 °133,500 60,300 10,621 409,750 4,781 8.6 1994 25,180 17,783 148,003 17,562 °228,600 68,100 11 ,291 516,519 4,880 10.6 1995 25,179 17,783 148,003 21,862 0 263,200 72,000 12,002 560,029 4.981 11.2 1996 25,113 17,783 148,003 21,862 °300,300 72,000 12,758 597,819 5,090 11.7 1997 24,874 17,783 148,003 21,862 °340,900 76,000 13,562 642,984 5,203 12.4 1998 24,715 17,783 327,631 21,862 0 348,500 117,800 31,657 889,948 5,317 16.7 1999 24,658 17,783 327,631 21,862 0 413,000 121,400 33,652 959,986 5,434 17.7 2000 24,425 17,783 530,655 21,862 0 408,500 167,700 55,258 1,226,182 5,552 22.1 2001 22,014 17,783 530,655 21,862 0 449,700 179,300 58,739 1,280,053 5,632 22.7 2002 22,009 17,783 789,699 21,862 °425,000 223,400 82,622 1,582,375 5,713 27.7 2003 20,983 17,783 789,699 21,862 0 472,700 239,100 87,828 1,649,955 5,796 28.5 2004 20,970 17,783 789,699 21,862 °521,400 253,900 93,361 1,718,975 5,879 29.2 2005 20,910 17,783 789,699 21,862 0 572,800 271,800 99,242 1,794,0~5,964 30.1 2006 20,683 17,783 1,072,983 21,862 °552,300 331,400 132,641 2,149,652 6,050 35.5 2007 20,666 17,783 1,088.990 21,862 °615,000 352.500 142,488 2,259,289 6,136 36.8 2008 20,651 17,783 1,088,990 21,862 0 686,900 317 ,500 151,465 2,365,151 6,225 38.0 2009 20,635 17,783 1,107,082 21,862 °757,700 401,500 162,691 2,489,253 6,315 39.4 2010 20,619 17,783 1,126,315 21,862 0 844,600 429,900 174,731 2,635,810 6,406 41.1 2011 20,597 17,783 1,485,505 21,862 0 799.000 522,800 220.215 3,087,763 6,498 47.5 2012 20,588 17,783 1,485,505 21,862 0 879,300 560,200 234,089 3,219,327 6,543 49.2 2013 14,898 17,783 1,485,505 21,862 0 978,900 588,800 248,837 3,356,585 6,686 50.2 2014 12.637 17,783 1,485.505 21,862 0 1,080,300 630,900 264,513 3,513,501 6,782 51.8 2.015 12,637 17,783 1,485,505 21,862 °1,191,600 671 ,500 281,178 3,682,265 6,880 53.5 2016 12,637 17,783 1,541,035 21,862 0 1,342,700 719,300 304,061 3,959,378 6,979 56.7 2017 12,637 17,783 1,541,035 21,862 °1,494,600 765,400 323,217 4,176,534 7,080 59.0 2018 12,637 17,783 2,094,225 21,662 0 1,450,100 914,700 396.611 4,907,917 7,182 68.3 2019 12,637 17,783 2,094,225 21,862 0 1,593,900 974,400 421,597 5,136.404 7,286 70.5 2020 12,637 17,783 2,094,225 21,862 °1,757,700 1,044,300 448.158 5,396,665 7,390 73.0 CUMULATIVE PRESENT WORTH or TOTAL COSTS (1985-2020)7,044,127 1 J }J l 1 }}1 ~--l 1 j j ])..~J ...!. ALASKA POWER AUTHORITV SUSITNA FINANCIAL ANALYSIS COMPARISON OF RAILBELT COST OF POWER <$000) CASE 7:HATANUSKA 12-Jun-85 WITH SUSITNA PAGE 2 OF 2 EXISTING ANNUAl CAPITAl COSTS OF NEW PLANT <1)COMPARABlE UTlLITV -----------------------------------------------RENEWALS AND ENERGV COST OF DEBT UTILITV LARGE BRADLEY REPLACEMENTS REQUIREMENTS POWER VEAR SERVICE (2)THERHAL(3)THERHAL(4)LAK[(5)SUSlTNA(6)FUEL<7)0&H(8)(9)TOTAL<10)<GWH)(IU <C/KWHH 12)=========...========z===~::======.=_=a======================a===========================================~========================zc== 1985 24,638 1,974 ° °°47,700 23,100 °97,412 3,502 2.8 1986 24,692 2,289 °° ° 61,500 24,800 °113,281 3,767 3.0 1987 24,821 2,989 °°°69,700 26,600 °124,110 3,938 3.2 1988 24,910 9,946 ° ° ° 81,900 29,500 0 146,256 4,106 3.6 1989 25,275 9,946 °°°100,100 31,500 °166,821 4,269 3.9 1990 25,224 9,946 °17,562 °98,300 34,200 484 185,716 4,446 4.2 1991 25,218 14,567 °17,562 °115,500 37,400 514 210,761 4,567 4.6 1992 25,214 14,567 98,403 17,562 °118,400 56,200 9,992 340,338 4,676 7.3 1993 25,196 14,567 98,403 17,562 °133,500 60,300 10,621 360,150 4,781 7.5 1994 25,180 17,783 98,403 17,562 °228,600 68,100 11 ,291 466,919 4,880 9.6 1995 25,179 17,783 98,403 21,862 °263,200 72,000 12,002 510,429 4,981 10.2 1996 25,113 17,783 98,403 21,862 °300,300 72,000 12,758 548,219 5,090 10.8 1997 24,874 17,783 98,403 21,862 °340,900 76,000 13,562 593,384 5,203 11.4 1998 24,715 17,783 98,403 21,862 803,000 179,700 92,300 42,016 1,279,779 5,317 24.1 1999 24,658 17,783 98,403 21,862 849,000 216,400 95,000 44,663 1,367,769 5,434 25.2 2000 24,425 17,783 98,403 21,862 849,000 255,100 101,800 47,477 1,415,850 5,552 25.5 2001 22,014 17,783 98,403 21,862 849,000 290,500 106,600 50,468 1,456,630 5,632 25.9 2002 22,009 17,783 98,403 21,862 849,000 350,000 100,000 53,647 1,512,705 5,713 26.5 2003 20,983 17,783 98,403 21,862 849,000 399,000 106,100 57,027 1,570,159 5,796 27.1 2004 20,970 17,783 98,403 21,862 1,522,000 85,300 106,600 83,420 1,956,338 5,879 33.3 2005 20,910 17,783 98,403 21,862 1,550,000 96,200 112,900 88,675 2,006,734 5,964 33.6 2006 20,683 17,783 98,403 21,862 1,550,000 130,800 110,500 94,262 2,044,293 6,OJ"33.8 2007 20,666 17,783 98,403 21,862 1,550,000 148,300 114,200 100,200 2,071 ,415 6,136 33.8 2008 20,651 17,783 98,403 21,862 1,550,000 191,400 112,700 106,513 2,119,312 6,225 34.0 2009 20,635 17,783 98,403 21,862 1,550,000 212,000 115,900 113,223 2,149,807 6,315 34.0 2010 20,619 17,783 98,403 21,862 2,374,000 6,100 109,800 148,256 2,798,824 6,406 43.7 2011 20,597 17,783 98,403 21,862 2,408,000 6,600 115,100 157,597 2,845,942 6,498 43.8 2012 20,588 17,783 98,403 21,862 2,408,000 17,700 124,100 167,525 2,875,962 6,543 44.0 2013 14,898 17 ,783 144,620 21,862 2,408,000 22,900 133,800 182,382 2,946,245 6,686 44.1 2014 12,637 17,783 144,620 21,862 2,408,000 33,000 144,300 193,872 2,976,074 6,782 43.9 2015 12,637 11,783 144,620 21,862 2,408,000 48,900 151,200 206,086 3,011 ,088 6,880 43.8 2016 12,637 17,783 172,385 21,862 2,408,000 76,700 158,300 221,654 3,089,321 6,979 44.3 2017 12,637 17,783 172,385 21,862 2,408,000 103,400 170,700 235,618 3,142,385 7,080 44.4 2018 12,637 17,783 203,765 21,862 2,408,000 128,300 189,600 253,383 3,235,330 7,182 45.0 2019 12,637 17,783 203,765 21,862 2,408,000 156,400 204,500 269,346 3,294,293 7,286 45.2 2020 12,637 17,783 203,765 21,862 2,408,000 233,500 214,000 286,315 3,397,862 7,390 46.0 CUMULATIVE PRESENT WORTH or TOTAL COSTS (1985-2020)6,756,193 I 12-Jun »1 J 1 1 -J -}l 1 l 1 }1 )-} Intere.t Elrning, Annul' Selli-lnnull 11.00 5.36 SUSITNA HVDROELECTRIC PROJECT RATE STA8ALIZATION ANALVSIS UTILITY LOAD FORECASTS CASE 7:MATANUSKA NlTH SUS lTNA THERMAL ALTERNATIVE RATE STABILIZATION ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------TOTAL SYSTEM TOTAL TOTAL SYSTEM TOTAL ACCRUED SYSTEM ENERGY SYSTEM SYSTEM ENERGY SYSTEM REQ.STATE STATE REQ., COSTS SALES COSTS COSTS SALES COSTS SUBSIDY CONTRIB.CONTRI8.SUBSIDY SAVINGS CY (.MIL>(GNh)(c:/kWh)(.MIL>(GNh)(c/kNh)($MIL>($MIL>($MIL>(.MIL>($MIL>------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1985 97 3,502 2.8 97 3,502 2.8 100.0 100.0 1986 113 3,767 3.0 113 3,767 3.0 34 200.0 266.2 1987 124 3,938 3.2 124 3,938 3.2 22 108.6 393.2 1908 146 4,106 3.6 146 4,106 3.6 9 0.0 427.0 1989 167 4,269 3.9 167 4,269 3.9 -64 0.0 541.8 1990 186 4,446 4.2 186 4,446 4.2 0.0 601.4 1991 211 4,567 4.6 211 4,567 4.6 0.0 667.6 1992 340 4,676 7.3 390 4,676 8.3 0.0 741.0 1993 360 4,781 7.5 410 4,781 8.6 0.0 822.5 1994 467 4,880 9.6 517 4,880.10.6 0.0 913.0 1995 510 4,901 10.2 560 4,981 11.2 0.0 1013.4 1996 548 5,090 10.8 598 5,090 11.7 0 0.0 1124.9 0 50 1997 593 5,203 11.4 643 5,203 12.4 0 1248.6 0 50 1998 1,280 5,317 24.1 890 5,317 16.7 390 975.2 390 0 1999 1,368 5,434 25.2 960 5,434 17.7 408 652.8 408 0 2000 1,416 5,552 25.5 1,226 5,552 22.1 190 524.9 190 0 2001 1,457 5,632 25.9 1,280 5,632 22.7 117 396.7 177 0 2002 1,513 5,713 26.5 1,582 5,713 27.7 0 440.3 0 70 2003 1,570 5,796 27.1 1,650 5,796 28.5 0 488.7 0 80 2004 1,956 5,879 33.3 1,719 5,879 29.2 237 292.5 237 0 2005 2,007 5,964 33.6 1,794 5,964 30.1 213 100.7 213 0 2006 2,044 6,050 33.8 2,150 6,050 35.5 0 111.7 0 105 2007 2,071 6,136 33.8 2,259 6,136 36.8 0 124.0 0 188 2008 2,119 6,225 34.0 2,365 6,225 38.0 0 137.7 0 246 2009 2,150 6,315 34.0 2,489 6,315 39.4 0 152.8 0 340 2010 2,797 6,406 43.7 2,636 6,406 41.1 161 .0 161 0 2011 2,846 6,498 43.8 3,088 6,498 47.5 0 .0 0 242 2012 2,876 6,543 44.0 3,219 6,543 49.2 0 .0 0 343 2013 2,946 6,686 44.1 3,357 6,686 50.2 0 .0 0 410 2014 2,976 6,782 43.9 3,514 6,782 51.8 0 .0 0 537 2015 3,011 6,880 43.8 3,682 6,880 53.5 0 .0 0 671 2016 3,089 6,979 44.3 3,959 6,979 56.7 0 .0 0 870 2017 3,142 7,080 44.4 4,177 7,080 59.0 0 .0 0 1,034 2018 3,235 7,182 45.0 4,908 7,182 68.3 0 .0.0 1,673 2019 3,294 7,286 45.2 5,136 7,286 70.5 0 .0 0 1,842 2020 3,398 7,390 46.0 5,397 7,390 73.0 0 .0 0 1,999-----_.---------------------- 1775 408.6 1,175 10,749 1 1 ].)j )J J 'j -1 J i j )) ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY SUSITNA FINANCIAL ANALYSIS COMPARISON OF RAILBELT COST OF ENERGY .r 20202015 - - - - - - - --WITHOUT SUSITNA _,__0-WITH SUSITNA ----BASE CASE WITHOUT SUSITNA ,"---••> 201020052000 CASE 7:MATANUSKA80 75 70 65 60 0:w 55~-0:1:Q..~5011.~ OCll 45t- t-zCIlw 4000 0 ...Jwcc 35...Jz00-cc::E 300:0ccz Q..-25::E 0 0 20 15 10 5 0 1985 1990 1995 YEAR JUNE 12,1985 WITH SUSITNA -,7.MATANUSKA SUSIThA POWER SAL£S 'NEGOTIATIONS,YEARS 1.85-2000 SUTT',THEI~fl4AL WI MATANUSKA COAL FOR THE TOTAL RAIL8ELT JOB NUMBER 48544 06/03/85 .tIZ~PM eASED ON OAT~PREP JOB -a534 PATED 0./03/85 **********It************************************************* GE~ERATION SYSTEM NUKE C06l NGASCT OIL CT DIESEL COMeyC TYPE 1 2 3 4 5 0 OPTMZING 0 1992 1985 0 0 1988 PCT TRI~0 0 0 0 0 0 TYPES 7-10 *** lq84 MW 0 54 443 lq7 36 358 45 SUM:1133 *************:t********************************************************* TOTAL CAPAB. YR ** Y E •R L Y M W A 0.0 I T ION S •TIES ******* *************~******* ***************************** .** TYPES 7-10 ** WITH SUSITNA"7.MATANUSKA SUSITNA POwER SALES NEGOTIATIONS,YEARS 1996-2020, litTS7f"50S 1 no--WrJill'A"TAJ'roSlr.,..-FOR tAE fulll HAIlSEl.REGION, Joe NIIMBER 51075 Go/OJ/8S 02:JO PM 8 '-SEVOfrOTn PREP-J 08 sro-l GUl..,.T"I:'EnO-,,07:6'/"'l"iO'3"..g-.:S----------- **••*••••*••*•••*****-*.*.*••*.*.*••••*••*.**.*••••********* GENERATION SYSTEM ~E con---liGlSC I 1iIL-n-DIESEL cOMeyt TyPE 1 2 3 4 S b OPT~Z rNG"0 1 qq6 --t'1q6 0 0 19'16 PCT TRI~0 0 0 0 0 0 ..1~~~"0 226 603 1~1 20 358 lCU SU~:1~18 ****.**********.******************************.************************ TOtAL CAPA8. ''rR -_.f EAR t:-r-----lr Vi ADD 1 1 ION S +'1 E5 ******••~l*.***••••*****.***.*.**.******••******_********* --'·----·----··-----·----·------------'1~3r-rlTl-- ._------------------------------------ 1374 ---:-._--_._._-. --'-'"._--- .---------.~"3~qn1l*r------- 1659 " 0 - ...._.-----._--•._-- --""'--- ._-----_.---..•.-- 1502 ......1 -------------_.._-._.._---_._-------- 1418 3 ._..----_._----.._--1412---_._----_.---_..-.-_..- ----._---..··------------------------------·"TI"'1I4nt-::Zr--- --._.._-------._--_.__._--------------_._-_.._-- --'S' -_.-.-_._----------'-- ---------_.__.._------ t8S8 1883 .......-_..-.-·----------------------------~---,ln5l:"1qI:l'T"1--- -r 1527 ", WITH SUSITNA 7.MATANUSKA 8 «1 ----_._---_..---_.._------ ._----._---_..._.-.-_.._--------- -.I"S'ZI 0'· 1440 to •-----•.------------.-.-----------------/r151!"""93-::;:*:------- 2148---_---- 1 1 --2 [48---' 12 2147 r- I 13 '2X 87 ._---------_... 218«1 " 14 15 1& 17 - _....-----.------._.._.-.-----·----·--------------.2~1:-..84-··- 2184-_.._-.------ --fr-8,'----------..-----.---- 2184 -----------------------------, 1)(87 ---------- 2271 20 -----------------------_._------------ .- ..,.. ..-_..-_.__._-_.._.----------.---...-._-.--·"2271---' *********************************************************************** *1t ****..**-*tf"~*••".T•••**it****t·.*if**it.~*·.-t £"i fifi*"".j"**-i ***.**ii"- Mw ADD 0 0 348 0 0 0 1570 SU~=1«118 ""1"1tF..-----0--118 --&03 -191 -20 -358 -S-·"StljUl=-122!=i-- ************************ *********************..***********2020 ~o-----·171t""·-3tr8"-----··fr------0--"--0 174S-'SlJl"~'-2271 peT TOT 0.0 7.8 1~.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 7&.8 Su~=100 peT - WITHOUT SUSITNA "7.MATANUSKA SUSI Tf!4A POWI::R SAL£S NEGOTI ATIONS,YEARS 1 tJ85-2000 GUTTB,THER~AL WI MATANUSKA COAL FOR THE TOTAL RAILBELT JOB NUMBER 48544 06/03/85 .1128 PM BASED ON DAT~PREP JOB 48534 PATEO 0./0]/85 ***********,t************************************************ GENERATION SYSTEM NUKE COAL NGASCT OIL CT DIESEL COMCYC TYPES TYPE 1 2 3 4 5 •7-10 OPTMZING 0 lqq2 lq85 0 0 1988 *** PCT TRIM 0 0 0 0 0 0 lQ84MW 0 54 443 lQ7 36 358 45 SUM=1133 **************It******************************************************** TOTAL CAPAS. YR YEA R L Y M WAD 0 I T ION S +TIES *********It************~************************************ A5 45* 1177 80. 110.8 87 1171 1303 1303 1357 140u 1511 1511 1530. " WITHOUT SUSITNA 7.MATANUSKA GUT7,THERMAL w/MATANUSt<A 'COAL FOR THE TOTAL RAIL8EL T JOB NUMBER 4QS14 Ob/03/85 01:43 PM BASED ON DATA PREP JOB 49478 DATED Ob/Ol/85 ************************************************************,-GENERATION SYSTEM NUKE COAL NGASCT OIL CT DIESEL COMCYC TYPE 1 2 1 4 5 b OPTMZING 0 19Qb 1996 0 0 1996 -fCT TRIM 0 0 0 0 0 0 TYPES 7-10 *** 19q5 MW 0 22b 603 191 20 358 180 SUM=1578 ***************1t********-*********************************************** YR ** TOTAL CAPAB. YEA R L Y M WAD 0 I T I 0 ~S +TIES ********,t************************************************ 96 1377 q7 1,574 98 200* ~1520 Q9 I""""1303 0 r-200* I 1557 1-1539 2 .-IX 200 t673 3 4 5 7 1073 1071 lbbb IX 200 IX tH 1661 IX 87 1084 " WITHOUT SUSITNA 7.MA'l;'ANUSKA *********************************************************************** *********************************************************************-* MW ADD 0 1200 522 0 0 0 0 SU ...=1722 Mw RET 0 -46 -603 -lql -20 -358 0 SUM=-1220 F"************ ********************************************* 2020 0 1378 522 0 0 0 160 SUM=2060 PCT TOT 0.0 &&.3 25.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.7 SU~=100 PCT --~--~---------------------------------------- FUEL PRICE 7.MATANUSKA - Coal Fuel Price Analyzed Matanuska Replaces Basic Analysis Fuel -, I",ATANUSKA COAL PRICE (~/MMBTU) ,~ NOMINAL REAL PRICE Yt.AR PRICE (INF-b.31X),..,.. ******************** ($2985)($) 1985 1.790 1.790 1'18b 1.810 1.92q ~1981 1.830 2.068 \988 1.850 2.222 1989 1.870 2.~8"1 1';90 1.891 2.567 19q1 1.911 2.71:,'1 1992 1.932 2.96b 199j 1.q54 3.188 ""'"1994 1.97,:>3.426 199':)1.'197 j.b82 J'190 2.019 J.9!=id 1997 2.041 4.25q 1998 2.06Q 4.~72 1999 2.08b 4.914 2000 2.109 5.2A1 200S 2.228 7.575 I'"'"2010 2.353 10.B6Q 20J5 2.485 15.582 2020 2.&25 22.:SU8 - )1 )}J j 1 ."'J D J 1 J i 1 l 1 1 :;r;:~I!IW t"1 b ~;b r:bFr~~~Tllro0roPIrt:(~Plrt~~~:(8 ~(II PI~ rt ()(II PI ~::t'....()ro ......(111 '"d en ~o ro ~H ITj rt ()0 (j)(j)I'tj 8 "<:....PI Ei ro III Ill..J::~....tJO ro III .PI ()(II rt ~::::l ......H tn HI !:j IJ.OJ rn !rn r\....2;'.....1-'.ili Pi en ~......iii I ill j:.I _.v.iiJ'-~PI (II <:EJ ......1-'- f:1:j PI PI ~EJ R'1 '"d (II G)..........ro '<rt ><rt o .'.0 '"d t1 PI '<~rt rt tn 1-'. l'(j ....ro ~~()~tn(ll J::'<ro 1-'.<: 0 0 Po ...•0 0 -....~~tn 1-'. ~~0 PI ro (II tn rt rt ro ......'< '-r--- NO ~-rI>ESCRIPTION...... 0 \0 co -..I 0\~~W tv ....0 I o· X I X ---- X ~X X X X X X 1 I 1999 Gas Peak XXIX X 2 1996 Gas Peak------I---~_---.I_-----....------.....---.---.-...---.-------.I ~X :::X X ~~-l~~--~_-._-I-~~ijI-~~:;-ji~~~~-..---: X X 6 Nenana 0%l-1 I.• '__.--.1--__---.----_._-.._-..--.----.....-...---..---....---..-.-----...---..-..---....--..I I I __la__--l-----l----I-X---._~..._____.__..?_Be~_':lJ~._~?W C?alP~i.?e._.,,_I _X_~-1-_"__'_'''_'_''_'..__.._._,.•.._..~_..~~~~_~.us~..a.__..._.._..__.__.........-....-----1 t~l~I;.lj--=tu"m u -~---"n~_;=~_=~;~-3'i.I;ai;:~i~~~:r~=""!~_on 1y I __1-----111----_.I X __._.,,__.....1..~.._~~.~__~~.~_~~C::~_~_?:...J~?~.~.>....-.It~'......~.~.......-r-.-----------.-.---.f---t--.----....__~~_~%_..~.~.~.!.~~!.?_~....._._._...,,___I X 13 Keetna I --+±---_."..--------.-.._.---."-----\"'-'--"""---..- -.-_-- -.-_- ,.X_t-_~_~...~-L~-i-~_~_....~X X .__~_..__~4 _..B~ad1~y._.~~ke 3.rd ~~_it _ ~_._.~.I--L-_!.._.__..._~-...--............._..."._._-!?..._..l?ha.~_~.!Only I I~I i x_.16 Diamond Coal '!l ~l 1 1 -1 --,1 J l -J )I 1 ~.). 1 1 J j ALASKA POWER AUTHORITV SUSITNA FINANCIAl ANALVSIS COMPARISON or RAllBEL T COST OF'POWER ($000) CASE 8:BASE CASE ANALYSIS II-Jun-85 WITHOOT SUS ITNA PAGE I OF'2 EXISTING ANNUAl CAPITAl COSTS ON NEW PlANT (I)COHPARABlE UTILITY -----~-----------------------------------------RENEWAlS AND ENERGV COST (f" DEBT UTILITY LARGE BRADlEV REPLACEMENTS REQUIREMENTS POWER YEAR SERVICE (2)TI£RMAU3)TI.£RMAl.(4)LAICE(5)SUSITNA(6)F'l£l(7)0'"(9)(9)TOTAL<10)(GWHH II)(C/kNHH 12)_=s ••z==:::*~2 ••"Z••S..=•.•.z.:..:••••A ••=.._====:z===:.========~======z~====.a==:==::=:=======s==========~===za==a===zas ~.=.•.=~••• 1985 24,638 1,974 0 0 0 47,500 23,000 0 97,112 3.502 2.8 1996 24,692 2;289 0 "0 61,300 24,600 0 113,091 3;767 3.0v 1997 24,821 2,989 0 0 0 69,700 26,700 0 124,210 3,938 3.2 1988 24,910 9,946 0 0 0 91,800 29,200 0 145,856 4,106 3.6 1989 25,275 9,946 0 0 0 100,100 31,400 0 166,721 4,269 3.9 1990 25,224 9,946 0 17,562 0 98,400 33,900 484 185,516 4,446 4.2 1991 25,218 14,567 0 17,562 0 115,800·37,400 514 211,061 4,567 4.6 1992 25,214 14,567 0 17,562 0 130,800 39,300 547 227,990 4.676 4.9 1993 25,196 14,567 0 17,562 0 147,800 42,100 591 247,806 4,781 5.2 1994 25,180 17,793 0 17,562 0 250,100 47,700 618 359,943 4,880 7.4 1995 25,179 17,783 ~210,429 21,862 0 267,600 82,400 15,134 640,387 4,981 12.9 1996 25,113 17,783 210,429 21,862 0 304,400 82,300 16,087 677,975 5,090 13.3 1997 24,874 .17,783 379,398 21,862 0 307,800 121,900 33,319 906,936 5,203 17.4 1998 24,715 17,783 379,398 21,862 0 346,500 129,600 35,418 955,276 5,317 18.0 1999 24,658 17,783 598,457 21,862 0 330,700 170,000 54,778 1,218,238 5,434 22.4 2000 24,425 17,783 598,457 21,862 0 372,600 181,500 58,229 1,274,857 5,552 23.0 2001 22,014 17,783 598,457 21,862 0 417,600 193,300 61,998 1,332,914 5,632 23.7 2002 22,009 17,783 598,457 21,862 0 476,800 196,100 65,797 1,398,809 5,713 24.5 2003 20,983 17,783 822,008 21,862 0 432,600 253.300 91,400 1,659,936 5,796 28.6 2004 20,970 17,783'822,008 21,962 0 481,000 270,200 97,158 1,730,981 5,879 29.4 2005 20,910 17,783 822,008 21,862 0 536,200 288,300 103,279 1,810,342 5,964 ·30.4 2006 20,683 17,783 1,090,234 21,862 0 516,900 346,300 135,530 2,149,292 6,050 35.5 2007 20,666 17,783 1,106,242 21,862 0 579,500 369,300 145,559 2,260,911 6,136 36.8 2008 20,651 17,783 1,123,259 21,862 0 646,700 397,100 156,313 2,383,669 6,225 38.3 2009 20,635 17,783 1,141,351 21,862 0 715,300 422,100 167,845 2,506,876 6,315 39.7 2010 20,619 17,783 1,141,351 21,862 0 804,300 447,900 178,419 2,632,134 6,406 41.1 2011 20,597 17,783 1,141,351 21,862 0 887,400 478,100 189,660 2,756,753 6,498 42.4 2012 20,588 17,783 1,163,088 21,862 0 989,300 513,400 203,632 2,929,653 6,543 44.8 2013 14,898 17,783 1,569,037 21,862 0 945,800 615,700 255,425 3,441:1,505 6,686 51.5 2014 12,637 17,783 1,569,037 21,962 0 1,042 ..600 657,000 271,517 3,592,435 6,782 53.0 2015 12,637 17,783 1,569,037 21,862 0 1,155,400 700,900 288,622 3,766,241 6,880 54.7 2016 12,637 17,783 1,596,902 21,862 0 1,281,700 745,100 309,390 3,985,274 6,979 57.1 2017 12,637 17,783 1,626,318 21,862 0 1,426,300 800,000 331,629 4,236,530 7,060 59.8 2018 12,637 17,783 1,626,318 21,862 0 1,572,800 853,400 352,522 4,457,322 7,182 62.1 2019 12,637 17,783 1,626,318 21,862 0 1,760,100 909,700 374,731 4,723,131 7,286 64.8 2020 12,637 11,783 2,244,503 21,862 0 1,715,400 1,081,200 457,674 5,551,059 7,390 75.1 CUMUlATIVE PRESENT WORTW Of TOTAl COSTS (1985-2020)6,989,973 1 1 )1 1 1 ···1 1 l J ...J J J )lf ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY SUSITNA FINANCIAL ANALYSIS COMPARISON OF RAiLBR T COST OF POWER (.000) CASE 8:PHASE 12-Jun-85 WITH SUSITNA EXISTING ANNUAL CAPITAL COSTS OF'NEW PLANT t 1)COMPARABlE UTILITY -----------------------------------------------RENEWALS AND ENERGY COST or DEBT UTILITY LARGE BRADLEY REPLACEMENTS REQUIREMENTS POWER YEAR.SERVICE (2)THERHAL(3)THERHAL(4)LAKE(5)SUSITNA(6)FUEL(7)0&H(8)(9)TOTAUIO)(GWHH 11)(C/KWHH 12) =~=~•••s.==z =========s=_===••===_===2.=S=~=.=_===========~========~===========:s=================================================_=•• 1985 24,638 1,974 0 0 0 47,700 23,100 0 97,412 3,502 2.8.......24,892 2,283 0 0 0 6i ,500 24,800 0 113,281 3,767 3.0....uu 1987 24,821 2,989 0 0 0 69,700 26,600 0 124,110 3,938 3.2 1988 24,910 9,946 0 0 0 81,900 29,500 0 146,256 4,106 3.6 1989 25,275 9,946 0 0 0 100,100 31,500 0 166,821 4,269 3.9 1990 25,224 9,946 0 17,562 0 98,300 34,200 484 185,716 4,446 4.2 1991 25,218 14,567 0 17,562 0 115,500 37,400 514 210,761 4,567 4.6 1992 25,214 14,567 0 17,562 0 131,000 39,200 547 228,090 4,676 4.9 1993 25,196 14,567 0 17,562 0 148,000 41,800 581 247,706 4,781 5.2 1994 25,180 17,783 0 17,562 0 250,400 48,000 618 359,543 4,880 7.4 1995 25,179 17,783 0 21,862 0 290,700 51,100 657 407,281 4,981 8.2 1996 25,113 17,783 0 21,862 728,000 152,200 61,700 25,598 1,032,256 5,090 20.3 1997 24,874 17,783 0 21,862 766,000 177,700 66,000 27,211 1,101,430 5,203 21.2 1998 24,715 17,783 0 21,862 766,000 211 ,300 69,200 28,925 1,139,785 5,317 21.4 1999 24,658 17,783 0 21,862 766,000 258,600 68,600 30,748 1,188.251 5,434 21.9 2000 24,425 17,783 0 21,862 766,000 303,800 70,200 32,685 1,236,755 5,552 22.3 2001 22,014 17,783 0 21,862 766,000 352,400 74,200 34,744 1,283,003 5,632 22.9 2002 22,009 17,783 229,449 21,862 766,000 358,400 115,000 58,956 1,583,458 5,713 27.8 2003 20,983 17,783 229,449 21,862 766,000 409,800 .122,200 62,670 1,650,746 5,796 28.5 2004 20,970 17,783 488,767 21,862 766,000 370,200 180,300 91,508 1,957,390 5,879 33.3 2005 20,910 17,783 488,767 21,862 766,000 409,700 192,300 97,273 2,014,595 5,964 33.8 2006 20,683 17,783 834,351 21,862 766,000 374,200 248,000 130,548 2,413,427 6,050 39.9 2007 20,666 17,783 850,358 21,862 766,000 423,000 265,000 140,263 2,504,932 6,136 40.8 2008 20,651 17,783 850,358 21,862 766,000 477 ,200 283,100 149,099 2,586,054 6,225 41.5 2009 20,635 17,783 868,450 21,862 766,000 528,700 299,700 160,177 2,683,307 6,315 42.5 2010 20,619 17,783 887,683 21,862 766,000 600,700 323,200 172,058 2,809,906 6,406 43.9 2011 20,597 17,783 887,683 21,862 766,000 683,900 345,200 182,898 2,925,923 6,498 45.0 2012 20,588 17,783 887,683 21,862 766,000 769,400 368,700 194,421 3,046,437 6,543 46.6 2013 14,898 17,783 1,293,632 21,862 766,000 673,000 462,700 245,633 3,495,508 6,686 52.3 2014 12,637 17,783 1,293,632 21,862 766,000 754,600 494,800 261,108 3,622,422 6,782 53.4 2015 12,637 17,783 1,319,749 21,862 766,000 849,400 529,200 279,989 3,796,620 6,880 55.2 2016 12,637 17,783 1,347,514 21,862 766,000 973,500 565,900 300,213 4,005,409 6,979 57.4 2017 12,637 17,783 1,347,514 21,862 766,000 1,101.600 .599,900 319,127 4,186,422 7,080 59.1 2018 12,637 17,783 1,347,514 21,862 766,000 1,243,700 641,400 339,232 4,390,127 7,182 61.1 2019 12,637 17,783 1,347,514 21,862 766,000 1,395,400 685,700 360,603 4,607,499 7,286 63.2 2020 12,637 17,783 1,965,699 21,862 766,000 1,245,300 849,700 442,656 5,321,637 7,390 72.0 CUMUlATIVE PRESENT WORTH OF TOTAL COSTS (1985-2020)7,320,705 1 12-Jun 1 )-J J }J ]}»~t J ))j '. Interest Earning$ Annua' Sellli-an"Uill 11.00 5.36 SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT RATE STA8ALIZATION ANALYSIS UTILITY LOAD FORECASTS CASE 8:PHASE I WITH SUS ITNA THERMAL ALTERNATIVE RATE STA81LIZATION ----~----------------------------------------------------------------------------TOTAL SYSTEM TOTAL TOTAL SYSTEM TOTAL ACCRUED SYSTEM ENERGY SYSTEM SYSTEM ENERGY SYSTEM REQ.STATE STATE REQ. COSTS SALES COSTS COSTS SALES COSTS SUBSIDY CONTRIB.CONTRI8.SUBSIDY SAVINGS tY ($HIl)(GWh)(c/kWh)(.MIl)(GWh)(c/kWh)($MIl)($MIl)($MIl)(.MIl)($MIl)------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1985 97 3,502 2.8 97 3,502 2.8 100.0 100.0 1986 113 3,767 3.0 113 3,767 3.0 34 200.0 266.2 1987 124 3,938 3.2 124 3,938 3.2 22 200.0 494.7 1988 146 4,106 3.6 146 4,106 3.6 9 15.7 557.1 1989 167 4,269 3.9 167 4,269 3.9 -64 0.0 686.2 1990 IB6 4,441)4.2 186 4,446 4.2 0.0 761.7 1991 211 4,567 4.6 211 4,567 4.6 0.0 845.4 1992 228 4,676 4.9 228 4,676 4.9 0.0 938.4 1993 248 4,781 5.2 248 4,781 5.2 0.0 1041.7 1994 360 4,880 7.4 359 4,880 7.4 0.0 1156.3 1995 407 4,981 8.2 640 4,981 12.9 0.0 1283.5 1996 1,032 5,090 20.3 678 5,090 13.3 354 0.0 1051.4 354 0 1997 1,101 5,203 21.2 907 5,203 17.4 195 962.1 195 0 1998 1,140 5,317 21.4 955 5,317 18.0 185 873.5 185 0 1999 1,188 5,434 21.9 1,218 5,434 22.4 0 969.6 0 30 2000 1,237 5,552 22.3 1,275 5,552 23.0 0 1076.3 0 38 2001 1,289 5,632 22.9 1,333 5,632 23.7 0 1194.7 0 44 2002 1,590 5,713 27.8 1,399 5,713 24.5 191 1125.2 191 0 2003 1,651 5,7$28.5 1,660 5,796 28.6 0 1248.9 0 9 2004 1,957 5,879 33.3 1,731 5,879 29.4 226 1147.8 226 0 2005 2,015 5,964 33.8 1,810 5,964 30.4 204 1058.8 204 0 2006 2,413 6,050 39.9 2,149 6,050 35.5 264 897.0 264 0 2007 2,505 6,136 40.8 2,261 6,136 36.8 244 738.6 244 0 2008 2,586 6,225 41.5 2,384 6,225 38.3 202 606.6 202 0 2009 2,683 6,315 42.5 2,507 6,315 39.7 176 487.5 176 0 2010 2,810 6,406 43.9 2,632 6,406 41.1 178 353.8 178 0 2011 2,926 6,498 45.0 2,757 6,498 42.4 169 214.6 169 0 2012 3,046 6,543 46.6 2,930 6,543 44.8 117 115.2 117 0 2013 3,496 6,686 52.3 3,441 6,686 51.5 55 70.0 55 0 2014 3,622 6,782 53.4 3,592 6,782 53.0 30 46.1 30 0 2015 3,797 6,880 55.2 3,766 6,880 54.7 30 19.1 30 0 2016 4,005 6,979 57.4 3,985 6,979 57.1 20 .0 20 0 2017 4,186 7,080 59.1 4,237 7,080 59.8 0 .0 0 50 2018 4,390 7,182 61.1 4,457 7,182 62.1 0 .0 I 0 67 2019 4,608 7,286 63.2 4,723 7,286 64.8 0 .0 0 116 2020 5,322 7,390 72.0 5,551 7,390 75.1 0 .0 0 230---------------------------- 2841 515.7 2,841 584 ",WITH SUSITNA 8.PHASE I ;ors&,SOSITNA BISE FOR THE foflL R1IL8£LT RE'lOh Joe NUMRER 23b38 06/04/85 06:33 AM BASED ON DATA PREP JOB 23SQa DAlEO O"O./8~ *************,-********************************************** GE~ERATIO~SYSTE~ NUKE cOlt NG1!(::T oIL (::t DIESEL CONtlC TYPE 1 2 3 4 S ~ OPTMZING 0 1442 Iq45 0 0 1488 peT TRIM 0 0 0 0 0 0 TYPES 7-10 *** 1484 MW 0 ~4 44~1~1 ~o 358 4'SUM:Ill' *********************************************************************** TOTAl" CAPAS. Y E I R L ,M WID bIT tON S +TIES ****************~*********** ******* ********************** 55 ~-.,z 93 '14- .......,CJ215;:------------------..------------------- i '0 WITH SUSITNA 8.PHASE I SUSITNA POWER SALES NEGOTIATIONS,YEARS 1996-2020, Gusa,SUStTN~1 STAGE I ONLy,FOR THE TOtAL RIILBELT REGION, JOB NUMBER 511qq 06/0)/85 02111 PM BASED O~OAT.PREP JOB 51124 DATED ob/o3/8S ************_r***********************************************-GENERATION SYSTEM qUKE COAL NGASCf oIL cT DIESEL COAClt TYPE 1 2 3 q 5 b OpT~ZING 0 199b 1996 0 0 1996 PCT TRIM 0 0 '0 0 0 0 TYPES 7-10 *** lqqS ~w 0 73 603 191 20 358 180 SU~=1425 *********************************************************************** TOTAL CAPAS. YEA R l_-Y M WAD 0 I flO N S +TIE 5 ********************************************************* 1560 1500 1349 1343 1325 200* 1"59 3 1&57 1052 1&47 tb70 2Ubb ******************~**************************************************** ***************R******************************************************* ~W AOQ 0 1000 522 0 0 0 3~q SU~=18~1 M~RET 0 -~~-b03 -191 -20.-3S~0 SU~=-1220 ********************************************************* 2020 0 lu2~522 0 0 0 51q SUM:20bb PCT TOT 0.0 qq.b 25.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 25.1 SU~=l~O peT WITHOUT SUSITNA ",8.PHASE I SUSTTNA POWER SALES NEGOTIATIONS,'YEARS 1985-2000 GUTTB,THERMAL BASE FOR THE TOTAL RAILBELT REGION J08 NUMBER 3248b 0&/04/85 08:59 A" BASED ON DATA PRED JOB 32450 DATED Ob/04/85 ***********It************************************************ ~, ., WITHOUT SUSITNA 8.PHASE I I~SUSITHA POWER SALES NEGOTIATIONS,YEARS 1•••-2020 GUTB,THERMAL BASE FOR THE TOTAL RAtLBELT RE&IONJoeNUMBER1025000/01/15 01.23 AM BASED ON OAT4 PREP JOB _)019~.OATEO o~/ol/a5 ************************************************************ *** TYPES 7-10 19~5 M~0 273 003 191 lO 158 180 SUM=1025 ***************_:******************************************************* TUTAL CAPAB. HUKE COAL HGAScf OIL CT DIESEL COHCye tYPE 1 2 3 4 5 6 GENERATION SYSTE~ OPTMZING 0 19Qo 1~9b 0 0 1~9b JCT TRIM 0 -0 0 0 0 0 YR ** YEA R L Y M WAD 0 I T I 0 N ~+11E5 ****_***'I1r**.*****************_**********'it***************** -8 1840 1840 1840 1X 87 1840 1X 87 lq21 lq27 lq27 1X 200 .2121 **************~**********.********************************************* ********************i*****************ii**************,******.********* ~"ADO 0 1200 522 0 0 0 0 SU~~1722 MW REI 0 -48 -605 -191 -20 -558 0 SUR:-1220 ************************************ ********************* -.020 0 14Z5 522 0 0 0 180 SO-=21Z7 ICT TOT 0.0 67.0 ZQ.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.5 SUM=100 peT FUEL PRICE 8.PHASE I Fuel Price Analyzed Replaces Basic Analysis Fuel - For Phase I Analysis fuel prices are the sane as the Base Analysis. ., , IX ! ~Is::i,Oi I ' i I I • i X j f i i NIM!~jlfllla~l~i~;~'~l :1 :;i !I Ii;i i :I I,'i II'X I !X!'X,!1,i !i , j ;'i I xl X I x!I i;-xI!: I !Iii x I' sensitivity Analysis Parameters 2 TCF Gasi I Sensitivity Analysis Run I Base AnalysisI(5 TCF Gas),. .1 Lmv Finance 5 X X Low Inflation 6 X, No Coal Export Keetna 9 X 10 X I xl X I I X X I xi i II I I i X !_lx 1~_l_J! .J- '---==-)~~~=----=--i _.) ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY SUSITNA FINANCIAL ANALYSIS COMPARISON or RAILBELT COST or POWER ($000) CASE 9:NO COAL EXPORT 12-Jun-85 WITHOUT SUSITNA PAGE 1 OF 2 EXISTING ANNUAL CAPITAL COSTS OF NEW PLANT <I)COMPARABLE UTIL lTV -----------------------------------------------RENEWALS AND ENERGY COST OF DEBT UTlLITV LARGE BRADLEV REPLACEMENTS REQUIREMENTS POWER VEAR SERVICE (2)THERHAL(3)THERHAL(4)LAKE(5)SUSITNA<G)FUEL<7)0&M(8)(9)TOTAL<10)(GWHH 11)(C/KWHH 12) =:===~=====.==~=================z=========:============================================================:=========================:c.s 1985 24,638 1,974 0 0 0 47,700 23,100 0 97,412 3,502 2.8 1986 24,692 2,289 0 0 0 61,500 24,800 0 113,281 3,767 3.0 1987 24,821 2,989 0 0 0 69,700 26,600 0 124,110 3,938 3.2 1988 24,910 9,946 0 0 0 81,900 29,500 0 146,256 4,106 3.6 1989 25,275 9,946 0 0 0 100,100 31,500 0 166,821 4,269 3.9 1990 25,224 9,946 0 17,562 0 98,300 34,200 484 185,716 4,446 4.2 1991 25,218 14,567 0 17,562 0 115,500 37,400 514 210,761 4,567 4.6 1992 25,214 14,567 0 17 ,562 0 131,000 39,200 547 228,090 4,676 4.9 1993 25,196 14,567 0 17,562 0 148,000 41,800 581 247,706 4,781 5.2 1994 25,180 17,783 0 17,562 0 250,400 48,000 618 359,543 4,880 7.4 1995 25,179 17,783 0 21,862 0 290,700 51,100 657 407,281 4,981 8.2 1996 25,113 17,783 0 21,862 0 337,400 48,300 698 451,156 5,090 8.9 1997 24,874 17,783 236,368 21,862 0 345,400 87,200 16,960 750,448 5,203 14.4 1998 24,715 17,783 245,597 21,862 0 395,900 93,500 18,888 818,245 5,317 15.4 1999 24,658 17,783 436,559 21,862 0 409,000 134,600 38,407 1,082,869 5,434 19.9 2000 24,425 17,783 436,559 21,862 0 460,100 144,800 40,827 1,146,355 5,552 20.6 2001 22,014 17,783 684,152 21,862 0 440,500 194,700 62,758 1,443,769 5,632 25.6 2002 22,009 17,783 684,152 21,862 0 SOO,OOO 198,300 66,711 1,510,817 5,713 26.4 2003 20,983 17,783 684,152 21,862 0 560,800 210,300 70,914 1,586,794 5,796 27.4 2004 20,970 17,783 684,152 21,862 0 614,500 224,900 75,382 1,659,549 5,879 28.2 2005 20,910 17,783 936,458 21,862 0 574,900 290,600 104,348 1,966,861 5,964 33.0 2006 20,683 17,783 951,516 21,862 0 674,100 299,800 112,323 2,098,068 6,050 34.7 2007 20,666 17,783 967,524 21,862 0 753,600 320,900 120,890 2,223,225 6,136 36.2 2008 20,651 17,783 1,270,673 21,862 0 702,600 398,500 157,603 2,589,672 6,225 41.6 2009 20,635 17,783 1,270,673 21,862 0 777,500 421,300 167,532 2,697,285 6,315 42.7 2010 20,619 17,783 1,289,906 21,862 0 862,900 451,300 179,877 2,844,248 6,406 44.4 2011 20,597 17,783 1,289,906 21,862 0 947,000 480,100 191,209 2,968,458 6,498 45.7 2012 20,588 17,783 1,311,643 21,862 0 1,049,500 514,100 205,279 3,140,755 6,543 48.0 2013 14,898 17,783 1,717,592 21,862 0 1,020,900 615,600 257,176 3,665,811 6,686 54.8 2014 12,637 17,783 1,717,592 21,862 0 1,121,600 655,600 273,378 3,820,452 6,782 56.3 2015 12,637 17,783 1,717,592 21,862 0 1,240,700 702,600 290,601 4,003,775 6,880 58.2 2016 12,637 17,783 1,745,357 21,862 0 1,361,900 743,300 3tt ,493 4,214,332 6,979 60.4 2017 12,637 17,783 1,774,874 21,862 0 1,510,100 801,600 333,865 4,472,721 7,080 63.2 2018 12,637 17,783 1,774,874 21,862 0 1,662,000 853,300 354,899 4,697,354 7,182 65.4 2019 12,637 17,783 1,774,874 21,862 0 1,846,500 908,200 377 ,257 4,959,113 7,286 68.1 2020 12,637 17,783 1,774,874 21,862 0 2,049,600 972,900 401,024 5,250,680 7,390 71.0 CUMULATIVE PRESENT WORTH or TOTAL COSTS (1985-2020)6,881,069 -'"j .~:=---i --~l --_~=j ~_--1 .~~--l ~----l -------J -J J--- ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY SUSITNA FINANCIAL ANALVSIS COMPARISON OF RAILBELT COST OF POWER ($000) CASE 9:NO COAL EXPORT 12-Jun-85 WITH SUSITNA PAGE 2 OF 2 EXISTING ANNUAL CAPITAL COSTS OF NEW PLANT (1)COMPARABlE UTILITY -----------------------------------------------RENEWALS AND ENERGY COST OF DEBT UTlLITV LARGE BRADLEY REPLACEMENTS REQUIREMENTS POWER YEAR SERVICE (2)THERHAL(3) THERHAL(4)LAKE(5)SUSITNA(6)FUEL<7)0&M(8)(9)TOTAL<10)(GWHH 11)(ClKWHH 12) ===~.==============:==============_=======aa============================================================================z.==:======== 1985 24,638 1,974 0 0 0 47,500 23,000 0 97,112 3,502 2.8 1986 24,692 2,289 0 0 0 61,300 24,800 0 11::!,081 3,767 3.0 1987 24,821 2,989 0 0 0 69,700 26,700 0 124,210 3,938 3.2 1988 24,910 9,946 0 0 0 81,800 29,200 0 145,856 4,106 3.6 1989 25,275 9,946 0 0 0 100,100 31,400 0 166,721 4,269 3.9 1990 25,224 9,946 '0 17,562 0 98,400 33,900 484 185,516 4,446 4.2 1991 25,218 14,567 0 17,562 0 115,800 37,400 514 211,061 4,567 4.6 1992 25,214 14,567 0 17,562 0 130,800 39,300 547 227,990 4,676 4.9 1993 25,196 14,567 0 17,562 0 147,800 42,100 581 247,806 4,781 5.2 1994 25,180 17,783 0 17,562 0 250,100 47,700 618 358,943 4,880 7.4 1995 25,179 17,783 0 21,862 0 291,000 50,700 657 407,181 4,981 8.2 1996 .25,113 17,783 0 21,862 728,000 155,600 61,200 25,598 1,035,156 5,090 20.3 1997 24.874 17,783 0 21,862 766,000 180,700 65,400 27,211 1,103,830 5,203 21.2 1998 24,715 17,783 0 21,862 766,000 212,200 68,500 28,925 1,139,985 5,317 21.4 1999 24,658 17,783 0 21,862 766,000 259,800 69,000 30,748 1,189,851 5,434 21.9 2000 24,425 17,783 0 21,862 766,000 305,200 70,600 32,685 1,238,555 5,552 22.3 2001 22,014 17,783 0 21,862 766,000 353,200 74,500 34,744 1,290,103 5,632 22.9 2002 22,009 17,783 0 21,862 1,351,000 82,100 68,200 57,033 1,619,987 5,713 28.4 2003 20,983 17,783 0 21,862 1,384,000 94,200 72,500 60,626 1,671,954 5,796 28.8 2004 20,970 17,783 0 21,862 1,384,000 112,900 77,400 64,445 1,699,360 5,879 28.9 2005 20,910 17,783 0 21,862 1,384,000 132,600 82,300 68,505 1,727,960 5,964 29.0 2006 20,683 17,783 0 21,862 1,384,000 177,800 67,200 72,821 1,762;149 6,050 29.1 2007 20,666 17,783 0 21,862 1,384,000 210,200 69,900 77 ,409 1,801,820 6,136 29.4 2008 20,651 17,783 0 21,862 2,119,000 0 69,900 107,186 2,356,382 6,225 37.9 2009 20,635 17,783 0 21,862 2,150,000 0 69,500 113,938 2,393,718 6,315 37.9 2010 20,619 17,783 19,233 21,862 2,150,000 11,100 75,700 122,907 2,439,204 6,406 38.1 2011 20,597 17,783 19,233 21,862 2,150,000 12,300 80,500 130,650 2,452,925 6,498 37.7 2012 20,588 17,783 19,233 21,862 2,150,000 23,000 85,600 138,881 2,476,947 6,543 37.9 2013 14,898 17,783 65,450 21,862 2,150,000 28,800 93,200 151,933 2,543,926 6,686 38.0 2014 12,637 17,783 65,450 21,862 2,150,000 47,200 99,100 161,505 2,575,537 6,782 38.0 2015 12,637 17,783 65,450 21,862 2,150,000 68,300 106,000 171,679 2,613,712 6,880 38.0 2016 12,637 17,783 120,980 21,862 2,150,000 104,000 114,600 187,665 2,729,527 6,979 39.1 2017 12,637 17,783 120,980 ZI,862 2,150,000 136,000 122,600 199,488 2,781,350 7,080 39.3 2018 12,637 17,783 152,359 21,862 2,150,000 185,300 136,300 214,976 2,891,218 '7,182 40.3 2019 12,637 17,783 152,359 21,862 2,150,000 238,600 144,900 228,520 2,966,661 7,286 40.7 2020 12,637 17,783 152,359 21,862 2,150,000 340,500 154,900 242,917 3,092,958 7,390 41.9 CUMULATIVE PRESENT WORTH or TOTAL COSTS (1985-2020).6,447,372 CCJ 12-Jun Interest Eernings Annual Sellll-annual 11.00 5.36 '----j ----I .-~~ SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT RATE STABALIZATION ANALYSIS UTILITY LOAD FORECASTS CASE 9:NO COAL EXPORT .----'1 .~-J -) WITH SUSITNA THERMAL ALTERNATIVE RATE STABILIZATION --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL SYSTEM TOTAL TOTAL SYSTEM TOTAL ACCRUED SYSTEM ENERGV SYSTEM SYSTEM ENERGY SYSTEM REO.STATE STATE REO. COSTS SALES COSTS COSTS SALES COSTS SUBSIDY CONTRIB.CONTR1B.SUBSIDY SAVINGS CV <t MIU <GWh)<c/kWh)<t HIU <GWh)<c/kWh)<$HIU <$MIU <t M1U <t MIU ($MIU------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1985 97 3,502 2.8 97 3,502 2.8 100.0 100.0 1986 113 3,767 3.0 113 3,767 3.0 34 200.0 266.2 1987 124 3,938 3.2 124 3,938 3.2 22 200.0 494.7 1988 146 4,106 3.6 146 4,106 3.6 9 43.3 587.7 1989 167 4,269 3.9 167 4,269 3.9 -64 0.0 720.2 1990 186 4,446 4.2 186 4,446 4.2 0.0 799.4 1991 211 4,567 4.6 211 4,567 4.6 0.0 887.4 1992 228 4,676 4.9 228 4,676 4.9 0.0 985.0 1993 248 4,781 5.2 248 4,781 5.2 0.0 1093.3 .1994 359 4,860 7.4 360 4,880 7.4 0.0 1213.6 1995 407 4,981 8.2 407 4,981 8.2 0.0 1347.1 1996 1,035 5,090 20.3 451 5,090 8.9 584 0.0 880.0 584 0 1997 1.104 5.203 21.2 750 5.203 14.4 353 604.5 353 0 1998 1,140 5,317 21.4 818 5.317 15.4 322 331.9 322 0 1999 1,190 5,434 21.9 1,083 5,434 19.9 107 255.7 107 0 2000 1,239 5,552 22.3 1,146 5,552 20.6 92 186.7 92 0 2001 1,290 5,632 22.9 1,444 5,632 25.6 0 207.2 0 154 2002 1,620 5,713 28.4 1,511 5,713 26.4 109 115.0 109 0 2003 1,672 5,796 28.8 1,587 5,796 27.4 85 37.9 85 0 2004 1,699 5,879 28.9 1,660 5,879 28.2 40 .0 40 0 2005 1,728 5,964 29.0 1,967 5,964 33.0 0 .0 0 239 2006 1.762 6.050 29.1 2,098 6,050 34.7 0 .0 0 336 2007 1,802 6,136 29.4 2,223 6,136 36.2 0 .0 0 421 2008 2,356 6,225 37.9 2,590 6,225 41.6 0 .0 0 233 2009 2,394 6,315 37.9 2,697 6,315 42.7 0 .0 0 304 2010 2.439 6,406 38.1 2,844 6,406 44.4 0 .0 0 405 2011 2,453 6,498 37.7 2,969 6,498 45.7 0 .0 0 516 2012 2.477 6,543 37.9 3,141 6,543 48.0 0 .0 0 664 2013 2.544 6,686 38.0 3,666 6,686 54.8 0 .0 0 1,122 2014 2.576 6,782 38.0 3,821 6,782 56.3 0 .0 0 1,245 2015 2,614 6,880 38.0 4.004 6,880 58.2 0 .0 0 1,390 2016 2,730 6,979 39.1 4.214 6,979 60.4 0 .0 0 1,485 2017 2,781 7,080 39.3 4,473 7.080 63.2 °.0 0 1,691 2018 2,891 7,182 40.3 4,697 7,182 65.4 0 .0 I 0 1,806 2019 2,967 7,286 40.7 4,959 7,286 68.1 0 .0 °1,992 2020 3,093 7,390 41.9 5,251 7,390 71.1 0 .0 0 2,158 ---------------------------- 1693 543.3 1,693 16,161 '~1 ·=--1 ,----1 J .1 ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY SUSITNA FINANCIAL ANALYSIS COMPARISON OF RAILBELT COST OF ENERGY CASE 9:NO COAL EXPORT 20202015 • - - - - - - - -WITHOUT SUSITNA _0_0-WITH SUSITNA ----BASE CASE WITHOUT SUSITNA 2010 ,,, "",, ,............'" "I I I I, ",........ ...'~,..-I __~ I - ,/, 20052000 r-/,,'....' o ~/,..', I I I--' 1995 80 75 70 65 60 0::w 553t-0:::1:0..3t 50u..~ 0(1')45t-t-z(l')w 00 40 0 -'w<35-'zCD-<~300::0<z0..-25~ 0 0 20 15 10 5 0,I I I , 1 985 1990 YEAR ) JUNE 1 2,1 985 WITH SUSITNA ".9.NO COAL EXPORT SUSITNA POWER SALES ~EGOTIATIONS,·YEARS 1~a5-2000 GUTS~,SOSITN'BASE FOR TAE ToTAL RAIlBELT REGION JOB NUMRER 23b38 Obl04/85 06:33 A~ BASED ON DATA pREP JOB 23598 DATED 06704785 ************************************************************ / -1984 M~0 )Q qQ~1~'36 356 Q~SUM:1133 *********************************************************************** TOlAL CAPAB. """•I i I GENERATIO~SYSTE~ NUKE COAL NGASCf OIL (T OIESEL COMCYC TYPE 1 2 3 q 5 b -OPTfoIZING 0 Iq92 1985 0 0 Iq8·5 peT TRIM 0 0 0 0 0 0 TYPES 7-10 -'Yl( ** --rr- -~ YEA R L Y M WAD 0 I flO N S +tIE$ ********************************************************* 1177 1160 1171 1303 1303 13':>7 1400 1358------------------------------------- [358 -vzr- ----------------------------------,1..,3~8r-:3r---- ~. 1:1 fl.--q-s------------------------------------ 45*\ 1425 ",WITH SUSITNA 9.NO COAL EXPORT SUSITNA POwER SALES NEGOTIATIONS,YEARS lqqb-~020, ---~SB,SUSIINA BASE FOR THE ToTAL RAIL8ElT REGION,-JOB NUMBER 3b~38 Obl01/85 10:0q A~ BASED ON DAtA p~Ep JOB 3~bll ~AfED 06/01/85 ************************************************************ GENERATION SYSTEM NUKE COAL NGASCT OIL cT oIESEL CORCTC TVPE 1 2 3 4 5 bIOPT~Zl NG 0 1 qq~ftl96 0 0 19 cH; PCT TRIM 0 0 0 0 0 0 TYPE'S 7-10 *** **** ToTAL CAPAS. ...TIES ****** M W A 001 T ION S ******* ******* ******* ************ 19q5 MW 0 lj 603 141 .20 ~~e 180 su~=l~c~ 1 *~t*********************************************************************1---" - " WITH SUSITNA 9.NO COAL EXPORT """'WT....'riiiiiiiiii iiiiiii iii iiii*i*i'iiiiiiiii iiii'ii ii *iiiiii i *i i *i ***** *****~t***************************************************************a* iii'**,*i*****i**i****i****ii** 25 522 0 0 0 1• 1 22.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 Mw ADO a 0 522 a 0 0 1510 S~q:2042 ~w RET 0 -~8 -603 -lqt -20 -358 -5 su~=-1225 -WW~~**i**iii **ii**i*i*i 2020 0 1745 SUM:22q2 'r---pr;TI1)f 0.0 16.1 50M=100 PCI WITHOUT SUSITNA ·'9.NO COAL EXPORT SUSIlNl POWER SALES ~EGOTIAt~oNa,~EARS 1'15-2000 -;Of88,IOSIYN'BISE FOR THE fOYIL RIIlS!'T R£;IO~ J08 NUMAER 23b38 ObI0./85 06:33'~ "---eAsEo O~DATA PREp JO$23SQa DATED 06'04785 ************************************************************---------------------------------- 1"""1 !.I GENERATION SYSTEM ~uKE cOAL NGlscT oIL c1 DIES£L cofl4efc TYPE II'1 2 3 4 5 b OpTMZING 0 14Qa 1485 0 0 148S peT TRIM 0 0 0 0 0 0 TYPES 7-10 *** 1 -1484 ~w b ~4 44~iijl ~o ~56 4~~UM=li53 ***********************************************************************--TOlAL CAPAS. --nr-----cl'.--!...-rl-Rr-rL"'"""'I:IYr------"'ICMl""""'I:wr-----..,"r-'!'O~b~lr-""1Tr-""Itr--rO.--:rN7""""I!s~-:l+~f,.,IME...,$~-- ********* ***************~**********************************--,---------------------------------- 85 ----------------,4"5~·~-------------------- ----------------------------------1r'"!r"1....,--- I1ba 1171 1303 1303 13S7 1400 1158 1358 1385 1425 WITHOUT SUSITNA "9.NO COAL EXPORT SUSITNA PO~ER SALES ~EGOTIATI0NS,YEARS lQQ&-2020 --;014,IHERMAL WI NO COlL EXPDRI,'DilL R4ILBELI REGION JOB NUMBER 290&9 00/04/85 08:03 AM '----alSEo ON DA f A PREP JOB 2Q054 Ol fED 06104785 ************************************************************ GENERATION SYSTEM NUKE COAL NGASCl Ole (I DIESEL CO~CfC i'PES 'TYPE.1 2 3 ~4 S b 7-10 ~illNG 0 lqq6 1446 U 0 lQq6 *** peT TRI~0 0 00 0 0 lqqS QW 0 f~ov~141 ~u 358 leu SUM:lq~~ .*********************************************************************** IDIAL eAPA~. TR ** ,EARL ~M W 4 0 0 I I I u N S *********************************************** +Ilr:S **********-_._------------------------------------ 1224 -rr---------------------------------- 1421 --cnr-.--------------------------------- 87* 14';4 --qq------------------------------------ 200* r l''Iil r I r ",WITHOUT SUSITNA 9.NO COAL EXPORT lq27 ***********************~.*****-***********************************-*-*** ***************************-******************~**-*.**-********.*-*-**. M"ADD 0 1200 522 0 0 0 0 SUM:1722 -~RET 0 -48 -bu3 -Iqt -20 -358 0 SUM:-1220 *************.***.****.* ***.***.*.****************--***** "70"20 0 1225 522 0 0 0 180 SUM:r U 21 peT TOT 0.0 b3.b 27.1 0.0 n.o 0.0 q.3 SU~:100 peT FUEL PRICE 9.NO OJAL EXEORI' ~ I 1 .1 ""I" I I T T I T r" ! Coal Fuel Price Analyzed APA Beluga No Export Replaces Basic Analysis Fuel APA Beluga Export ", j -~=----:J =~~ -r-···--··c---"-_. :"l Z ttl t3:1:-1 t'l r,j~t'l 1:-1 t'l N b:I ?tW(J)0 ::t PI 0 0 I-'.....0 ttl 0 0 -PI(J)PI rt ~:<.:Plrt~11 ~~8 Vl(/)PI ::J rt n (/)PI ::J::t .....n (J)I-'(/)ttl til ::J 0 (J)::J H I1j rt n o(j)(j)I1j 8 '<.....PI?t(J)PI PI r::::J .....tlO (J)PI PI Q~(/)rt 11 ::J I-'H ID HI ::J ....·PI (/)(/)(j)..........PI PI ID ~I-'PI PI I-'PI PI (/)<:S 1-'..... t>:l PI PI ::J ~ttI R'>ttl ID (j)1-'.....(J)'<rt X rt 0 11 PI'<~rt rt (/)..... 'U .....(J)::J 11 n .....ID (/)r::'<(J).....<: 0 0 0......0 0 -.....::J 11 ID ..... 11 ::J 0 PI (J)ID (/)rtrt(J)I-'L<: ) .-....NO.DESCRIPTION0\0 CD .....0\Vl II:>-W N ....0 i i >::>::>:::><>::>::>:::><:><>::1 1999 Gas Peak I [-~-2 1996 Gas Peak---------f-------- >::><>::>::>::>::>::>::>::3 Ramped Gas Price >::>::4 CEA-Enstar Gas Price --.~---------....._.-.-.'.--"'-'--"~--'~'----------"-'-- >::><>::>::>::>::>::>::>::5 APA Coal Price......~"..•~....>---_...-.-._----_.._...._~...----_..~_..._-----_.•_-_.. X >::6 Nenana 0%--~---------1....,--_.-'---'----'-_-r_····_·_____w.__••__•___••••__•___ >::>::7 Beluga Low Coal Price_._------._---_......_....----_.~._.~_.__..--~•.._-_._-"-.._._.-..-.........."...---..._..-..•..--._......-......--...........'..-............. ~n----9 Matanuska •.-------------------....---~--_.".._---_.....-......•....,~~........•-_.-..-.._.......,_._-'.,....-...-.--~'~--'--'~"""'-'---'---"..-_..•..__.---_.-.___."-i -"--9 No Coal Export>4.------~~_.-._._-~.-._.__..~._----.-~..,.._.._-~._._._--,,~...-_.-.-.~.._..._.-..~-.-,_.-._---_..-_.,-.-.._._._-_.~- >::>::x >::>::>::>::10 11.2%Financing(Therma1 only)~~]~f~------_.-_._---._.__.._......~--~.........~~.-"....._----_._.__._--~-~-_..•'.'....~---_.-............_.~...__.~ 11 10%Financing (Both) .~.-..._-.....-._~-~.P ...,........._......_"'--_...--....~.._-_...._·_-~~.~--,·_..._.._.._..~...._.___ 12 5%Inflatione--...-----..--f-----...-.'-_._-~f---._-...-__._••••••_~_~~....._._~~·_~___,~_r _____._.••__••_.....~_••_._•_______•••____• _ >::!I 13 Keetna .~.-l--~--T-~I~J--~.--..--_._-.......-..~.__.-~.........._.-.__._--f----.-----_w_._.~....~~~....._.,."._..._........_.......~....._.,............_......'._..,.,_..~-..._--...~._- >::>::>::>::>::>::14 Bradley Lake 3rd Unit---_._.-...•.-f-....-....._~..__...__.._..•_-•__.--•••••".,,-.-.~---_••"•••••<•••_-- -+>::I ;15 '"_~ha.s._~...~.O.n 1y '.____...___._----1-+-_:...·-·_---_._-_..,.~--0-.._._•••••_--w._...._..'___0._____'.._""1 .~---.. I i I j >::16 Diamond Coal- .. ----l ~=s ·-1 ::~_..~-~~~~.----j -j ~ ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY SUSITNA FINANCIAL ANALYSIS COMPARISON or RAILBELT COST OF POWER <.000> CASE 10:KEETNA 12-Jun-85 t WITHOUT SUSITNA PAGE I OF 2 EXISTING ANNUAL CAPITAL COSTS or·NEN PLANT <I)COf1PARABLE UTILITY -----------------------------------------------RENEWALS AND ENERGY COST OF OEBT UTILITY LARGE BRADLEY REPLACEMENTS REQUIREMENTS POWER YEAR SERVICE (2)THERHAL(3)THERHAL<")LAKE(5)KEETNA(6)FUEL<1)0&H(8)(9)TOTAL<10>(GWHH II)(C/KWHH 12) ::::z====sa========::==~=====~z==~=========2::~:=~===~.==z========.======:::=====================:e=~==.==z=============s..~=====•••= 1985 2",638 1,97"0 0 0 "7,700 23,100 0 97,"12 3,502 2.8 1986 2",692 2,289 0 0 0 61,500 2",800 0 113,281 3,767 3.0 1987 2",821 2,989 0 0 0 69,700 26,600 0 12",110 3,938 3.2 1988 2",910 9,946 0 0 0 81,900 29,500 0 146,256 4,106 3.6 1989 25,275 9,9"6 0 0 0 100,100 31,500 0 166,821 ",269 3.9 1990 25,22"9,946 0 17,562 0 98,300 3",200 484 185,716 4,446 4.2 1991 25,218 1",567 0 17,562 0 115,500 37,400 514 210,761 4,567 ".6 1992 25,214 14,567 0 17,562 0 131,000 39,200 547 228,090 ",67.6 ".9 1993 25,196 14,567 0 17,562 0 148,000 41,800 581 247,706 4,781 5.2 199..25,180 17,783 0 17 ,562 0 250,"00 48,000 618 359,543 4,880 7." 1995 25,179 17,783 210,"29 21,862 0 268,000 82,400 15,13"640,787 4,981 12.9 1996 25,113 17,783 210,429 21,862 0 304,500 82,300 16,087 678,075 5,090 13.3 1997 24,87"17,783 210,"29 21,862 280,957 311,900 91,700 25,352 98",857 5,203 18.9 1998 24,715 17,783 210,"29 21,862 280,957 357,000 97,100 26,949 1,036,795 5,317 19.5 1999 24,658 17,783 401,391 21,862 280,957 361,500 137,200 "6,976 1,292,327 5,434 23.8 2000 24,425 17,783 401,391 21,862 280,957 415,600 146,200 49,935 1,358,153 5,552 24.5 2001 22,01"17,783 648,98"21,862 280,957 374,000 196,300 72,440 1,634,340 5,632 29.0 2002 22,009 17,783 648,984 21,862 280,957 433,400 198,300 n,004 1,700,299 5,713 29.8 2003 20,983 17,783 648,99"21,862 280,957 "83,500 212,100 81,855 1,768,02"5,7~;30.5 200 ..20,970 17,783 6"8,98"21,862 280,957 531,100 226,800 87,012 1,835,"68 5,879 31.2 2005 20,910 17,783 901,290 21,862 280,957 "85,000 290,600 116,711 2,135,113 5,96"35.8 2006 20,683 17,783 1,163,516 21,862 280,957 475,700 3"9,"00 1"9,809 2,485,710 6,050 "1.1 2007 20,666 17,783 1,185,52"21,862 280,957 53..,800 371,900 160,137 2,59",229 6,136 "2.3 2008 20,651 17,783 1,185,52"21,862 280,957 579,400 398,500 110,863 2,615,5"0 6,225 43.0 2009 20,635 17,783 1,203,615 21,862 280,957 644,600 "21,300 183,312 2,19",064 6,315 .....2 2010 20,619 17,783 1,203,615 21,862 280,957 719,600 448,200 194,860 2,901,491 6,406 45." 2011 20,597 17,783 1,22",062 21,862 280,957 802,300 483,300 209,0"0 3,059,901 6,"98 "1.1 2012 20,588 17,783 1,22",062 21,862 280,957 889,900 514,100 222,210 3,191,"62 6,5"3 "8.8 2013 1",898 17,783 1,630,011 21,862 280,957 86",200 615,600 275,113 3,120,"8"6,686 55.6 201 ..12,637 17,783 1,630 ,Oil 21,862 280,957 956,600 655,600 292,509 3,861,959 6,182 51.0 2015 12,637 17,783 1,630,011 21,862 280,957 1,062,800 702,600 310,931 ",039,581 6,880 58.7 2016 12,631 17,783 1,657,776 21,862 280,957 1,18",500 7"3,300 333,110 4,251,925 6,979 60.9 2017 12,631 11,783 1,687,292 21,862 280,957 1,308,400 801,600 356,844 ",481,316 7,080 63." 2018 12,637 11,783 1,687,292 21,862 280,957 1,450,100 853,300 379,325 4,103,257 7,182 65.5 2019 12,631 17,783 1,681,292 21,862 280,957 1,606,000 908,200 403,223 4,937,954 1,286 61.8 2020 12,637 17,783 1,687,292 21,862 280,951 1,783,700 972,900 428,626 5,205,751 1,390 70." CUHULATIVE PRESENT WORTH OF TOTAL COSTS (1985-2020)7,538,176 1 ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY SUSfTNA FINANCIAL ANALVStS COMPARISON OF RAILBELT COST OF POWER ($000) CASE 10:KEETNA 12-Jun-85 ,WITH SUSITNA PAGE 2 OF 2 EXISTING ANNUAL CAPITAL COSTS OF NEW PlANT (I)COMPARABlE UTILITY -----------------------------------------------RENEWALS AND ENERGY COST OF DEBT UTILITY LARGE BRADlEY REPLACEMENTS REQUIREMEf,nS POWER YEAR SERVICE (2)T~JmAL(3)THERMAL(4)LAKE(5)SUSITNA(6)FUEL<7)0&"(8)(9)TOTAL<10)(GWHTfll)(C/KWHH 12) :~::~:••===========:::======:=~===========.~~==~======================:==~~=============================:=====~=========..-=========- 1985 24,638 1,974 0 0 0 47,500 23,000 0 97,112 3,502 2.8 IS86 24,692 2,289 0 0 0 61,300 24,800 0 113,081 3,767 3.0 1987 24,821 2,989 0 0 0 69,700 26,700 0 124,210 3,938 3.2 1988 24,910 9,946 0 0 0 81,800 29,200 0 145,856 4,106 3.6 1989 25,275 9,946 0 0 0 100,100 31,400 0 166,721 4,269 3.9 1990 25,224 9,946 0 17,562 0 98,400 33,900 484 185,516 4,446 4.2 ISSI 25,218 14,567 0 17,562 0 115,800 37,400 514 211,061 4,567 4.6 1992 25,214 14,567 °17,562 °130,800 39,300 547 227,990 4,676 4.9 ISS3 25,196 14,567 0 17,562 0 147,800 42,100 581 247,806 4,781 5.2 1994 25,180 17,783 0 17,562 0 250,100 47,700 618 358,943 4,880 7.4 1995 25,179 17 ,783 0 21,862 0 291,000 50,700 657 407,181 4,981 8.2 ISS6 25,113 17,783 0 21,862 728,000 155,600 61,200 25,598 1,035,156 5,090 20.3 1997 24,874 17,783 0 21,862 766,000 180,700 65,400 27,211 1,103,830 5,203 21.2 1998 24,715 17,783 0 21,862 766,000 212,200 68,500 28,925 1,139,985 5,317 21.4 1999 24,658 17,783 0 21,862 766,000 259,800 69,000 30,748 1,189,851 5,434 21.9 2000 24,425 17,783 0 21,862 766,000 305,200 70,600 32,685 1,238,555 5,552 22.3 2001 22,014 17,783 °21,862 766,000 353,200 74,500 34,744 1,290,103 5,632 22.9 2002 22,009 17,783 0 21,862 1,351,000 82,100 68,200 57,033 1,619,987 5,713 28.4 2003 20,983 17,783 0 21,862 1,384,000 94,200 72,500 60,626 1,671,954 5,796 28.8 2004 20,970 17,783 0 21,862 1,384,000 112,900 71 ,400 64,445 1,699,360 5,879 28.9 2005 20,910 17,783 °21,862 1,384,000 132,600 82,300 68,505 1,727,960 5,964 29.0 2006 20,683 17,783 0 21,862 1,384,000 171 ,800 67,200 72,821 1,762,149 6,050 29.1 2007 20,666 17,783 0 21,862 1,384,000 210,200 69,900 71 ,409 1,801,820 6,136 29.4 2008 20,651 17,783 0 21,862 2,119,000 0 69,'900 107,186 2,356,382 6,225 37.9 2009 20,635 17,783 0 21,862 2,150,000 0 69,500 113,938 2,393,718 6,315 37.9 2010 20,619 17,783 19,233 21,862 2,150,000 11,100 75,700 122,907 2,439,204 6,406 38.1 2011 20,597 17,783 19,233 21,862 2,150,000 12,300 80,500 130,650 2,452,925 6,498 37.7 2012 20,588 17,783 19,233 21,862 2,150,000 23,000 85,600 138,881 2,476,947 6,543 37.9 2013 14,898 17,783 65,450 21,862 2,150,000 28,800 93,200 151,933 2,543,926 6,686 38.0 2014 12,637 17,783 65,450 21,862 2,150,000 47,200 99,100 161,505 2,575,,537 6,782 38.0 2015 12,637 17,783 65,450 21,862 2,150,000 68,300 106,000 171,679 2,613,712 6,880 38.0 2016 12,637 17,783 120,980 21,862 2,150,000 104,000 114,600 187,665 2,729,527 6,979 39.1 2017 12,637 17,783 120,980 21,862 2,150,000 136,000 122,600 199,488 2,781,350 7,080 39.3 2018 12,637 17,783 152,359 21,862 2,150,000 185,300 136,300 214,976 2,891,218 7,182 40.3 2019 12,637 17,783 152,359 21,862 2,150,000 238,600 144,900 228,520 2,966,661 7,286 40.7 2020 12,637 17,783 152,359 21,862 2,150,000 340,500 154,900 242,917 3,092,958 7,390 41.9 CUHUlATlVE PRESENT WORTH OF TOTAL COSTS (1985-2020)6,447,372 -:C'l 12-Jul1 ,--~4 ,-~:--i ~:~-----1 Int.r,.t Earning9 Annuli I S'IIIi-annulI' 11.00 5.36 SUSITNA HVDROELECTRIC PROJECT RATE STABALIZATiON ANALVSiS UTILITV LOAD FORECASTS CASE 10:KEETNA MITH SUSlTNA THERMAL ALTERNATIVE RATE STABILIZATION ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------TOTAL SYSTEM TOTAL TOTAL SYSTEM TOTAL ACCRUED SYSTEM ENERGY SYSTEM SYSTEM ENERGY SYSTEM REO.STATE STATE REQ. COSTS SALES COSTS COSTS SALES COSTS SUBSIDY CONTRIB.CONTRIB.SUBSIDY SAVINGS CY ($MIU (GMh)<C/kNh)(t MIU (GNh)Cc/IeNh)C$MIL)($MIU C$MIL>ct MIU C$MIL>----------_...._---------------------------------------------------------------..._._----- 1985 97 3,502 2.8 97 3,502 2.8 100.0 100.0 1986 113 3,767 3.0 113 3,767 3.0 34 115.7 181.9 1987 124 3,938 3.2 124 3,938 3.2 22 0.0 179.2 1988 146 4,106 3.6 146 4,106 3.6 9 0.0 189.4 1989 167 4,269 3.9 167 4,269 3.9 -64 0.0 278.1 1990 186 4,446 4.2 186 4,446 4.2 0.0 308.7 1991 211 4,567 4.6 211 4,567 4.6 0.0 342.6 1992 228 4,676 4.9 22a 4,676 4.9 0.0 380.3 1993 248 4,781 5.2 248 4,781 5.2 0.0 422.1 1994 359 4,880 7.4 360 4,880 7.4 0.0 468.6 1995 407 4,981 8.2 641 4,981 12.9 0.0 520.1 1996 1,035 5,090 20.3 678 5,090 13.3 357 0.0 201.1 357 0 1997 1,104 5,203 21.2 985 5,203 18.9 119 98.0 119 0 1998 1,140 5,317 21.4 1,037 5,317 19.5 103 .0 103 0 1999 1,190 5,434 21.9 1,292 5,434 23.8 0 .0 0 102 2000 1,239 5,552 22.3 1,358 5,552 24.5 0 .0 0 120 2001 1,290 5,632 22.9 1,634 5,632 29.0 0 .0 0 344 2002 1,620 5,713 28.4 1,700 5,713 29.8 0 .0 0 80 2003 1,672 5,796 28.8 1,768 5,796 30.5 0 .0 0 96 2004 1,699 5,879 28.9 1,836 5,879 31.2 0 .0 0 136 2005 1,728 5,964 29.0 2,135 5,964 35.8 0 .0 0 407 2006 1,762 6,050 29.I 2,486 6,050 41.1 0 .0 0 724 2007 1,802 6,136 29.4 2,594 6,136 42.3 0 .0 0 792 2008 2,356 6,225 37.9 2,676 6,225 43.0 0 .0 0 319 2009 2,394 6,315 37.9 2,794 6,315 44.2 0 .0 0 400 2010 2,439 6,406 38.I 2,908 6,406 45.4 0 .0 0 468 2011 2,453 6,498 37.7 3,060 6,498 47.I 0 .0 0 607 2012 2,477 6,543 37.9 3,192 6,543 48.8 0 .0 0 715 2013 2,544 6,686 38.0 3,721 6,686 55.6 0 .0 0 1,177 2014 2,576 6,782 38.0 3,868 6,782 57.0 0 .0 0 1,293 2015 2,614 6,880 38.0 4,040 6,880 58.7 0 .0 0 1,426 2016 2,730 6,979 39.1 4,252 6,979 60.9 0 .0 0 1,522 2017 2,781 7,080 39.3 4,487 7,080 63.4 0 .0 0 1,706 2018 2,891 7,182 40.3 4,703 7,182 65.5 0 .0 °1,812 2019 2,967 7,286 40.7 4,938 7,286 67.8 0 .0 °'1,971 2020 3,093 7,390 41.9 5,206 7,390 70.4 0 .0 °2,113---------------------------- 579 215.7 579 18,331 ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY SUSITNA FINANCIAL ANALYSIS COMPARISON OF RAILBELT COST OF ENERGY CASE 1 0:KEETNA 20202015 •- - - - - - - -WITHOUT SUSITNA -.--.-WITH SUSITNA ----BASE CASE WITHOUT SUSITNA 2010 -r::::.-------~------- ..................................,..,,,,..'.................... ~~_...- 20052000 80 15 10 65 60a:w 553=-0::I:0..3=50lL~ou) 45t-t-z U)w 00 40 O...J w<35...Jzm-<::E 30a:o<z0..-25::E 0 0 20 1 5 10 5 0 1985 1990 1995 YEAR JUNE 12,1985 *** TYPES 7-10 WITH SUSITNA 10.KEETNA " SUSI rNA POWER SALES ~EGOT I AT IONS,·YE ARS 1 Qe5-20 00 GOTSd,SOSIIN'BASE FOR THE ToTAL RAILSELT REGION J06 NUMRER 23&38 Obl04/85 0&:33 A~ -----eAsED oN DATA PREP JOB 23598 DATED 06704785 ************************************************************ GENERATION SYSTEM NUKE cOIL NGAScf oIL cT OIESEL COMeVe TYPE 1 2 3 q 5 b -OPTill4ZING 0 lQ92 tqilS 0 i)lq89 peT TRIM 0 0 0 0 0 0 -~a M~0 ~~~~~lql ~o 356 ~~SUM:1153 *******************~***************************************************folAL CAPAB. -"Ylr '*'* YEA R L Y M WAD 0 1ft 0 ~s +TIES ******* ************************************************** T! T -------------------------------------- 85 45* 5*. 1177 -"81)-------------------------------- 11 bd 87 23*. 1171 88 132* 131.>3------------------------------------- '--'------------------------------...,-1'T3':'1"O"'r3-- -q-u- I3S7 r -qy- 67*I -- ICJ2 -- T q3 r:~4 25*.. CIS 1400 1358 1558 1383 1425 T I !",WITH SUSITNA 10.KEETNA SUSITNA PO~ER SALES NEGOTIATIONS,YEARS lQQb-Z020. --~'SB,sUsfTNA BASE FOR THE ToTAL RAIl8ElT REGION, JOB NUMBER 36b38 06/01/85 10:0Q AM BASED ON DATA P~EP JOB 3b611 ~ATEo 06/01/85 *i:********************************************************** GENERATION SYSTEM NUKE CQAL NGASCT OIL c1 DIESEL COMCYC TYPE 1 2 3 4 5 6 -o~lNG 0 Iq9b Iqq6 0 0 lq~6 PCT TRIM 0 0 0 0 0 0 TYPES 7-10 *** 1 I 19q5 ~W 0 15 603 1~1 ~o 358 180 su~=14~~ *********************************************************************** ToTAL CAPAB. ~yEA R l Y M wAD bIT ION S +TIES ***********************************************************------------------------------------- -------------------------------..,:"""l""'I'~---- ~--------------------------------- -r--'-----------------------------------c. -------------------------------..,.,~---- F'1"' i ---s~'----------------------------------- 7 rT I ". WITH SUSITNA 10.KEETNA 8 153* 2127 2040 2082 2082 2UA1 2123 -·--·------------------------------~2~2M:qr:2r----- ***w.*A'***_*.****•••••*i*W*.-*****.****.***. 25 522 0 0 0 1745 su..,=22q2 1.1 22.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 16.1 50""=100 pel 2116 15 2118 1--ro--------------------- 2X 87 2205 2205'j'--_._----------------------------------- I 18----'----------rl"I"X-"1lor'l1r--------------------------- rT '.1 19 1,.1 ~2rT10r------------------------------------------- ~1-.ww ...1t*_i*******i***i********************i****i*********************** i *******************************************~*************************** r;fft"AD1J 0 0 522 0 0 0 15 10 50"'=2042 ~w RET 0 -~8 -&03 -191 -20 -358 -~SUM:-1225 1nfiTifT""**** 2020 0 -,:Jtj~f 0• 0~ I \.I ", WITHOUT SUSITNA 10.KEETNA TYPES 7-10 *** T T 'UTTB,THERMAL BASE FOR THE TOTAL ailL8ElT RECloN JOB ~UM8ER 3248b Ob/04/85 08:59 AM BASED ON DATA PREP JOB 32450 DATED Ob/04/85 .**•••••***.************************************************ GENERATION SYSTE~ NUKE COAL NGASCT OIL cT OIfSEL COMCYC TYPE 1 2 3 • 5 b OPTMZIN,0 '1992 1985 0 0 1988 PCT TRIM 0 0 0 0 0 0 1984 M_0 54 443 1q7 1b 358 45 SUM:1133 ******••********~**********.***************************************.*** TOTAL CAPAS. YR ** YEAR L Y M wAD 0 I T ION S +TIES ***.***************************************************** 85'-------------~r-::----------------------- r -n ! 88 r 89 ~ "1"'" I --n "3'--------------------------------,.."I"r~- T " WITHOUT SUSITNA 10.KEETNA TYPES 7-10 *** .,... I I T SUSITNA POWER SALES NEGOTIATIONS,YEARS 1~~b-2020 GoTIO,TRERMAL wJkEETNA,FOR THE TOTAL RAtLHELf REGION JOB NUMBER 27430 00/04/85 07:35 AM BASED ON OAf A PREP Joe 21340 DATtO 06704785 ********************************.*******-******************* 'ENERATION SYSTEM NOKE COAL NGASCl OIL c1 DIESEL COMCYC lVPE 1 2 3 4 5 b ~1~ZINC 0 lqqo Iqq6 0 0 i9q6 FCr TRIM 0 0 0 0 0 0 ~q5 ~W a 213 oO~1~1 20 ~~~leo SUM=lo~~ -**********************************************************************TOTAL CAOAB. 1'R" -* "0 -q r j ---r;1f 'i j c.q n- il 0 yEA R L Y M wAD 0 t I ION S +lIES ******* ***********-************************************** 1424 100* 1521 1~b7 2001 1510 lS0~ lX 2uO .b20 3 1620 1018 5 IX 200 1613 IX 200 1721 i I ., WITHOUT SUSITNA 10.KEETNA 1744 1144 17t'b liAS 18'55 t655 IAS3 1440 ,qUO 1940 ·~r************.*****i***********.******ii*ii****ii**************i****•••* *********************************************************************** "~ADf)0 1000 435 0 0 0 [00 SUild 1535 Mw RET 0 -48 -b03 -191 -lO -358 0 SU"":-1220 "--.nrlr*ii***••••**.i.***iiiiW.••••ii.*******.__.-••*ii *****i.i.** 2v~!O 0 1225 435 0 0 0 280 !;UM:lq~O "--;rc1 TOT 0.0 03.1 22.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.4 SU:ot;l.JO p\.T FUEL PRICE 10.KEE:INA "'1"" I I T Fuel Price Analyzed Replaces Basic Analysis Fuel r r r For Keetna Analysis fuel prices are the sane as the Base Analysis. 1 -~---'--j '-4 =--,'=---=-=,---"-4 June 12,19H5 TABLE 1 ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY SUMMARY COMPARISON OF RAILBELT COST OF ENERGY WITHOUT SUSITNA ALTERNATIVES (Nominal cents/kWh) Case:(0)(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8) (9)(10) 2 Low Low Gas Low Coal No Base TCF Gas &Coal Price With Low Low Coal Year Analysis Gas Price Price Diamond Plant Finance Inflation Matanuska Phase I Export Keetna 1985 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 1995 12.9 13.0 8.9 11.9 10.7 12.2 11.0 11.2 12.9 8.2 12.9 1996 13.3 13.5 9.0 12.0 14.5 12.7 13.3 11.7 13.3 8.9 13.3 1997 17.4 17.5 9.5 16.0 15.0 16.3 14.5 12.4 17.4 14.4 18.9 1998 18.0 18.0 10.4 16.4 19.0 16.9 14.8 16.7 18.0 15.4 19.5 1999 22.4 22.5 15.3 20.7 19.5 ZO.7 18.1 17.1 22.4 19.9 23.8 2000 23.0 23.0 16.2 21.1 23.9 21.3 18.5 22.1 23.0 20.6 24.5 2001 23.7 23.7 21.1 21.6 24.3 22.0 18.9 22.7 23.7 25.6 29.0 2002 24.5 24.5 22.0 25.5 25.0 22.9 19.5 27.7 24.5 26.4 29.8 2003 28.6 28.7 27.4 26.0 25.7 26.5 22.4 28.5 28.6 27.4 30.5 2004 29.4 29.4 28.1 26.7 26.4 27.3 22.9 29.2 29.4 28.2 31.2 2005 30.4 30.3 29.0 27.3 27.2 28.2 23.4 30.1 30.4 33.0 35.8 2006 35.5 35.5 34.3 32.3 32.0 32.8 26.9 35.5 35.5 34.7 41.1 2007 36.8 36.8 35.6 33.3 33.2 34.1 27.7 36.8 36.8 36.2 42.3 2008 38.3 38.3 36.8 34.4 38.6 35.5 28.6 38.0 38.3 41.6 43.0 2009 39.7 39.7 37.9 35.4 39.5 36.9 29.5 39.4 39.7 42.7 44.2 2010 41.1 41.1 39.6 36.4 40.3 38.4 30.3 41.1 41.1 44.4 45.4 2015 54.7 54.8 52.7 48.1 46.4 51.2 38.3 53.5 54.7 58.2 58.7, 2020 75.1 75.2 70.5 57.5 62.5 70.4 49.4 73.0 75.1 71.0 70.4 Note:Cumulative present worth calculated only through 2020 and does not take into account the disparities in remaining plant life at that time. Based on 10%discount rate except for Case 6,Low Inflation,which uses an 8.5%discount rate. r June 12,1985 TABLE 3 ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT ESTIMATED RATE STABILIZATION CONTRIBUTION (million $) W/O Interest W/Interest No.Case Earnings (1)Earnings (2) 0 Base Analysis 972 312 1 2 TCF Gas 967 311 2 Low Gas Price 2,908 915 3 Low Gas &Coal Price 1,984 479 4 Low Coal Price With Diamond Plant 2,383 611 5 Low Finance 1,847 486 6 Low Inflation 515 204 7 Matanuska 1,775 409 8 Phase I 2,841 516 9 No Coal Export 1,693 543 10 Keetna 579 216 (l)Amount required if interest earned on State contributions are not retained for rate stabilization. (2)Amount required if interest earned on State contributions are retained for rate stabilization~Based on a reinvestment rate of one percent greater than the assumed long-term rate for tax-exempt bonds.