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HomeMy WebLinkAboutAPA3427L_ BEFORE THE FEDERAL ENERGY REGULA TORY COMMISSION APPLICATION FOR LICENSE FOR MAJOR PROJECT SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT VOLUME 3 DRAFT APPENDIX 81 r- !,,[}{]~[ffi~~=~~~@©@ SUSITNA JOINT VENTURE L.=:==::::===AlaskilcPower Authority =====~ BEFORE THE FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY COMMISSION APPLICATION FOR LICENSE FOR MAJOR PROJECT SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT DRAFT LICENSE APPLICATION VOLUME 3 EXHIBIT B APPENDIX B! MAN-IN-THE-ARCTIC-PROGRAM (MAP) TECHNICAL DOCUMENTATION REPORT STATE MODEL (VERSION A8S.!) REGIONALIZATION MODEL (VERSION A84.CD) SCENARIO GENERATOR T/\ 1L{~5 I~q, P4'?( V)w.3'12.7 -:;-----. Alaska Resources Library &Information Services Anchoragt,Alaska November 1985 ] \ .1 ') ) -) -J 1 J -f I I-~ 1 }, J ) 1 \'! ./1 j I -' VOLUME COMPARISON , J J DESCRIPTIONCHAPTER VOLUME NUMBER COMPARISON LICENSE APPLICATION AMENDMENT VS.JULY 29,1983 LICENSE APPLICATION JULY 29,1983 AMENDMENT APPLICATION VOLUME NO.VOLUME NO.EXHIBIT A Entire Project Description 1 1 "i i B Entire App.B1 Project Operation and Resource Utilization MAP Model Documentation Report 2 3 2 &2A 2B App.B2 App.B3 RED Model Documentation Report RED Model Update 4 4 2C C Entire Proposed Construction Schedule 5 1 D Entire App.D1 Project Costs and Financing Fue Is Pricing 5 5 1 1 E 1 2 General Description of Locale 6 Water Use and Quality 6 5A 5A Tables Figures 7 5A 5B Figures 8 5B 3 Fish,Wildlife and Botanical 9 Resources (Sect.1 and 2) 6A 6B Fish,Wildlife and Botanical 10 Resources (Sect.3) 6A 6B Fish,Wildlife and Botanical Resources (Sect.4,5,6,&7) 11 6A 6B Socioeconomic Impacts Geological and Soil Resources 4 5 6 Historic &Archaeological Resources 12 12 12 7 7 7 7 8 9 Recreational Resources Aesthetic Resources Land Use 13 13 13 8 8 8 10 11 Alternative Locations, and Energy Sources Agency Consultation Designs 14 14 9 lOA lOB F F Entire Entire Project Design Plates Supporting Design Report 15 16 3 417 Plates Ptoject Limits and Land OwnershipEntireG I.1 J ) ), J SUMMARY TABLE OF CONTENTS SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT LICENSE APPLICATION SUMMARY TABLE OF CONTENTS EXHIBIT A PROJECT DESCRIPTION Title 1 -PROJECT STRUCTURES -WATANA STAGE I (**)..· ... Page No. A-1-2 1.1 -General Arrangement (**)••• 1.2 -Dam Embankment (**)••••• 1.3 -Diversion (**)'•.••••• 1.4 -Emergency Release Facilities (**) 1.5 -Outlet Facilities (**)•••• 1.6 -Spillway (**)••••••••••••.•• 1.7 -This section deleted • • • • • 1.8 Power Intake (**)••••.•••. 1.9 -Power Tunnels and Penstocks (**) 1.10 -Powerhouse (**)•.• 1.11 -Tailrace (**)• • . • .••• 1.12 -Main Access Plan (**)...• 1.13 -Site Facilities (**). 1.14 -Relict Channel (***) ·. A-1-2 A-1-4 A-1-6 A-1-9 A-I-IO A-I-13 A-I-IS A-I-IS A-1-18 A-1-19 A-1-22 A-1-23 A-I-25 A-1-29 .-~~. 3 -TURBINES AND GENERATORS -WATANA STAGE I (**) 2 -RESERVOIR DATA -WATANA STAGE I (**). ...·... ... ·.A-2-1 A-3-1 3.1 -Unit Capacity (**)• 3.2 -Turbines (***)•.• 3.3 -Generators (**) 3.4 -Governor System (0) ..... ..... . . ... A-3-1 A-3-1 A-3-1 A-3-3 ..4 -APPURTENANT MECHANICAL AND ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT - WATANA STAGE I (**)••••••••••••••· . A-4-1 4.1 -Miscellaneous Mechanical Equipment (**)•• 4.2 -Accessory Electrical Equipment (**)•••• 4.3 -SF6 Gas-Insulated 345 kV Substation (GIS)(***) A-4-1 A-4-5 A-4-12 5 -TRANSMISSION FACILITIES FOR WATANA STAGE I (0)• • ...A-5-1 5.1 Transmission Requirements (0) 5.2 -Description of Facilities (0) 5.3 -Construction Staging (0)••• ·. . A-5-1 A-5-1 A-5-11 851014 i SUMMARY TABLE OF CONTENTS (cont'd) 9_._l_~Mts_c_d_La,ne_o_us_M!:tc,hanLc_al_E,qJ1i.pme,nt_CoJ_._._._._._._,_~9-1 . 9.2 -Accessory Electrical Equipment (0)• • • •A-9-3 9.3 -Switchyard Structures and Equipment (0).• .A-9-6 EXHIBIT A PROJECT DESCRIPTION J 1 ,l J J J .-::::=:;"~~. j 'I J I I I .1 i J A-1O-1 A-ll-1 A-7-1 A-8-1 A-8-1 A-8-1 A-8-2 A-6-12 A-6-13 A-6-14 A-6-17 A-6-17 A-6-18 A-9-1 A-6-1 Page No. A-6-1 'A-6-i A-6-4 A-6-6 A-6-8 A-6-10 A"'6-12 • • • ·.. ·.. • 0 •• •• .. . . . .. ..... 6.1 -General Arrangement (**) 6.2 -Arch Dam (**),••••••••• 6.3 -Saddle Dam (**)•••• 6.4 -Diversion (**)• 6.5 -Outlet Facilities(**) 6.6 -Spi llway (**)•••• 6.7 -Emergency Spillway •••••• (This section deleted) Power Facilities (*)• • Penstocks (**)• • • • • -Powerhouse and Related Structures (**) -Tailrace Tunnel (*)•• • • • • • -Access Plan (**)• • •••• • • • -Site Facilities (*)• 8.1 -Unit Capacity (**)•• 8.2 -Turbines (**) 8.3 -G.enerators (0)•••• 8.4 -Governor System (0)•••• 6.8 - 6.9 - -6.10 6.11 6.12 6.13 9 -APPURTENANl EQUIPMENT -DEVIL CANYON STAGE II (0). Title 7 -DEVIL CANYON RESERVOIR STAGE II (*) 10 -TRANSMISSION LINES -DEVIL CANYON STAGE II (**)• 11 -PROJECT STRUCTURES -WATANA STAGE III (***)• 6 -PROJECT STRUCTURES -DEVIL CANYON STAGE II (**) • •·..--;;~A-;.;.11-1 A-1l-3 A-1l-5 A-11-6 ii General'••Arrangement(~':f!*)-~";~~,'.'.. -Dam Embankment (***)• • • • Diversion (***).........'.... Emergency Release Facilities (***) 11.1 11.2 11.3 11.4 - 851014 SUMMARY TABLE OF CONTENTS (cont'd) EXHIBIT A PROJECT DESCRIPTION Title Page No. 11.5 -Outlet Facilities (***)A-1l-6 11.6 -Spillway (***).· ···· ···A-1l-7 11.7 -Power Intake (***)· ···. .···· ···A-1l-8 11.8 -Power Tunnel and Penstocks (***)·· · · · A-ll-ll 11.9 Powerhouse (***)· · ·· · .· ··.·•A-ll-ll 11.10 -Trailrace (***)·· · · ···A-11-13 .~:-..:11.11 -Access Plan (***)· · A-ll-13 11.12 -Site Facilities (***).····.··A-11-13 11.13 -Relict Channel (***)A-ll-13 ·...12 -RESERVOIR DATA -WATANA STAGE III (***)• •••A-12-1 ·.. 1 I 13 -TURBINES AND GENERATORS -WATANA STAGE III (***) 13.1 -Unit Capacity (***)• •••••• 13.2 -Turbines (***) 13.3 -Generators (***) 13.4 -Governor System (***) 14 -APPURTENANT MECHANICAL AND ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT - WATANA STAGE III (***)••••••••••••• 14.1 -Miscellaneous Mechanical Equipment (***) 14.2 -Accessory Electrical Equipment (***)•• 15 -TRANSMISSION FACILITIES -WATANA STAGE III (***) 15.1 Transmission Requirements (***)• 15.2 Switching and Substations (***)• A-13-1 A-13-1 A-13-1 A-13-1 A-13-1 • •·A-14-1 A-14-1 A-14-1 •· · A-15-1 A-15-1 A-15-1 16 -LANDS OF THE UNITED STATES (**).........A-16-1 17 -REFERENCES 851014 ... .......... . . ....... iii A-17-1 SUMMARY TABLE OF CONTENTS (cont'd) EXHIBIT B PROJECT OPERATION AND RESOURCE UTILIZATION Title 1 -DAMSITE SELECTION (***)• • •.......•e CI ••co ..co .. Page No. B-1-1 1.1 -Previous Studies (***)•••••••• 1.2 Plan Formulation and Selection Methodology (***). 1.3 -Damsite Selection (***)••••••••••••• 1.4 -Formulation of Susitna Basin Developm~nt Plans (***)• • • • • • • • • • 1.5 Evaluation of Basin Development Plans (***) B-1-1 B-1-4 B-1-5 B-1-12 B-1-17 2 -ALTERNATIVE FACILITY DESIGN,PROCESSES AND OPERATIONS (***)..................co co .. .......B-2-1 B-2-60 B-2-67 .~_..._.B-2;o;83 B-2-131 . ..... .. 2.1 Susitna-UydroelectricDevelopment .(***); 2.2 -Watana Project Formulation (***)••••• 2.3 -Selection of Watana General Arrangement (***) 2.4 -Devil Canyon Project Formulation (***). 2.5 -Selection of Devil Canyon General Arrangement (***)• • • • • • • • • • • • 2.6 -Selection of Access Road Corridor (***) Sel·ecti-on·~of--Transmissi-on-Facttttte·s~(***)~~~ 2.8 -Selection of Project Operation (***) 3 -DESCRIPTION OF PROJECT OPERATION (***) 3.1 -Hydrology (***)• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 3.2 -Reservoir Operation Modeling (***) 3.3 -Operational Flow Regime Selection (***) 4.1 -Plant and System Operation Requirements (***) 4.2 -Power and Energy Production (***)• • • 5 -STATEMENT OF POWER NEEDS AND UTILIZATION (***)... ·B-2--1 B-2-1 B-2-22 B-2-48 B-3-1 B-3-1 B-3-6 B-3-20 B-4-1 B-4-10 B-5-1 j 1 l 1 I I 5.1 -Introduction (***)••••••••••••• 5.2 -Description of the Railbelt Electric Systems (***) 5.3 -Forecasting Methodology (***)•• 5.4 Forecast of Electric Power Demand (***) 6 -FUTURE SUSITNA BASIN DEVELOPMENT (***) 7 -REFERENCES 851014 • • • • 0 • •.' ...... . ...... . ........ .iv B-5-1 B;;,;5-1 B-5-17 B-5-47 B-6-1 . B-7-1 SUMMARY TABLE OF CONTENTS (cont'd) EXHIBIT B -APPENDIX BI MAN-IN-THE-ARCTIC PROGRAM (MAP) TECHNICAL DOCUMENTATION REPORT STAGE MODEL (VERSION AS5.1) REGIONALIZATION MODEL (VERSION AS4.CD) SCENARIO GENERATOR Title Stage Model Page No. 1- 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. II. 12. 13. Introduction • • • • • Economic Module Description Fiscal Module Description Demographic Module Description • Input Variables •••• • • • • Variable and Parameter Name Conventions Parameter Values,Definitions and Sources Model Validation and Properties Input Data Sources • • • • • • • Programs for Model Use • • • • • Model Adjustments for Simulation • Key to Regressions • • • • Input.Data Archives •••••• 1-1 2-1 3-1 4-1 5-1 6-1 7-1 8-1 9-1 10-1 11-1 12-1 13-1 Regionalization Model 1-Model Description · · ···1 2.Flow Diagram ··· ·· · · · ·· · · · · ··5 3.Model Inputs · · ·· · · ··· ··7 4.Variable and Parameter Names ··· · · · · ·· · 9 5.Parameter Values ·· · ··13 6.Model Validation · · · · ·· · ·31 7.Programs for Model ·· · · ·· · · · ····· ··38 8.Model Listing · ·· · 39 9.Model Parameters ···· · · · · ·· · · · · 57 10.Exogenous,Policy,and Startup Values · · · ···61 Scenario Generator Introduction . .· · ··· · ·· · · · · ·· ·· · 1 1-Organization of the Library Archives ·· ·· ··1 2.Using the Scenario Generator ·· · · · ·· · · · ···8 3.Creating,Manipulating,Examining,and Printing Library Files ·· ······14 4.Model Output · ··· ·· · ·· · · ·· · · ··· · 22 851014 v SUMMARY TABLE OF CONTENTS (cont'd) EXHIBIT B -APPENDIX B2 RAILBELT ELECTRICITY DEMAND (RED)MODEL TECHNICAL DOCUMENTATION REPORT (1983 VERSION) Title 1 -INTRODUCTION • 2 -OVERVIEW • • •... 3 -UNCERTAINTY MODULE • 4 -THE HOUSING MODULE • II 0 • • • •D • • • • • • • . .. 5 -THE RESIDENTIAL CONSUMPTION MODULE • 6 -THE BUSINESS CONSUMPTION MODULE 7 -PRICE ELASTICITY . • 0 tI • • • •II II • ... 8 -THE PROGRAM-INDUCED CONSERVATION MODULE 9 -THE MISCELLANEOUS MODULE 10 -LARGE INDUSTRIAL DEMAND • 11 -THE PEAK DEMAND MODULE 12 -MODEL VALIDATION • •II •II • • 13 -MISCELLANEOUS TABLES 851014 II •II •II vi • • • • • •II II • SUMMARY TABLE OF CONTENTS (cont'd) EXHIBIT B -APPENDIX B3 RAILBELT ELECTRICITY DEMAND (RED)MODEL CHANGES MADE JULY 1983 TO AUGUST 1985 Title 1 -INTRODUCTION • Page No. 1.1 2 -RED MODEL PRICE ADJUSTMENT REVISIONS • • 3 -RESIDENTIAL CONSUMPTION MODULE . .. 2.1 3.1 4 -BUSINESS SECTOR 5 PEAK DEMAND . . . 4.1 5.1 .-::-=::~. \ IIi 6 -EFFECT OF THE MODEL CHANGES ON THE FORECASTS • •6.1 851014 vii SUMMARY"TABLE OF CONTENTS (cont I d) EXHIBIT C PROPOSED CONSTRUCTION SCHEDULE Title 1 -WATANA STAGE I SCHEDULE (**)• • • •e e ~•0 0 ••e Page No. C-1-1 j ! j ,~ r 2.1 -Access (**)• • • • •C-2-1 2.2 -Site Facilities (**)•••••••••••C-2-1 2.3 -Diversion (*)• • • • • • • • •••C-2-1 2.4 -Arch Dam (**)'.• • • • • • • • • • • •C-2-1 2.5 -Spi llway and 'Intake (*)•••••• •••C-2-2 2-~"6;;;;'Powerlious e an(i'-'o-l:ner-Un(iergr ouna~'WorKs'''(oT',-,:-~--""c'::;'2'::-2 2.7 -Transmission Lines/Switchyards (*)• • •••C-2-2 2.8 -General (*)• • • • • • • •C-2-2 1.2 -Site Facilities (**)·· · · · ·· · C-1-2 1.3 -Diversion (**)· ·· · · ·· · ·C-I-2 1.4 Dam Embankment (**)·· · · ··e __.•· · · ··C-I-2 1.5 -Spillway and Intakes (**)··· · · · ···C-I-3 1.6 -Powerhouse and Other Underground Works (**)·C-1-3 1.7 Relict Channel (**)····· · · ·· · C-1-3 1.8 -Transmission Lines/Switchyards (*)· · ·· · C-1-3 1.9 -General (**). .•·· · · · ·· · ··C-1-3 2 ...DEVIL'CANYON STAGE II SCHEDULE (**)• •• • •·• •· · C-2-1 ,I' -~~: ~~l J I 1 J I I I J L :-i I .] I 1 C-3-1 C-4-1• • • • • • • • 0 0 eo.• • • • • • • • viii 4 -EXISTING TRANSMISSION SYSTEM (***) 3 -WATANA STAGE III SCHEDULE (***)• 851014 3.1 -Access (***)• • • •C-3-1 3.2 -Site Facilities (***)••• • • • • •••C-3-1 ,,"--,3.-3---Dam,,,Embankment-(***},,,.-,.•••.''''.-.• •.'--'C-'3-1"- -------,------3,.4-""'--SpiUwa.y-and-Lntakes-(-**,*.)-.--'.-.-.-.-.-.-.-'.-'.',,--.--G--3-.2----- 3.5 -Powerhouse and Other Underground Works (**)C-3-2 3.6 -Relict Channel (***)••••••••••••••C-3-2 3.7 -Transmission Lines/Switchyards (***)C-3-2 3.8 -General (***)• • • • • • • • • • • • • •••C-3-2 SUMMARY TABLE OF CONTENTS (cont'd) EXHIBIT D PROJECT COSTS AND FINANCING Title Page No. -1 -ESTIMATES OF COST (**)• • • • • • • • • • • •G • •0 D-1-1 1.1 -Construction Costs (**)••••• 1.2 -Mitigation Costs (**). 1.3 -Engineering and Administration Costs (*) 1.4 -Operation,Maintenance and Replacemen~Costs (**) 1.5 -Allowance for Funds Used During Construction (AFDC)(**)••••••••• 1.6 Escalation (**)•••.•••••••••• 1.7 -Cash Flow and Manpower Loading Requirements (**). 1.8 -Contingency (*)•..••.••..•...... 1.9 -Previously Constructed Project Facilities (*) D-1-1 D-1-6 D-1-7 D-1-10 D-1-11 D-1-12 D-1-12 D-1-13 D-l-13 2 -EVALUATION OF ALTERNATIVE EXPANSION PLANS (***)•• • • D-2"'1 ... ......D-3-1 D-2-28 D-2-33 D-2-39 D-2-44 D-2-46 D-2-1 D-2-1 D-2-10 D-2-10 D-2-19 P-2-24 D-2-27 · . . · .. .... 2.1 -General (***)••••••••••• 2.2 -Hydroelectric Alternatives (***)••••. 2.3 -Thermal Alternatives (***)• 2.4 -Natural Gas-Fired Options (***)• 2.5 -Coal-Fired Options (***).••••• 2.6 -The Existing Railbelt Systems (***)•• 2.7 -Generation Expansion Before 1996 (***) 2.8 -Formulation of Expansion Plans Beginning in 1996 (***)•.••••••••••• 2.9 Selection of Expansion Plans (***) 2.10 -Economic Development (***)• 2.11 -Sensitivity Analysis (***) 2.12 Conclusions (***)•••. 3 -CONSEQUENCES OF LICENSE DENIAL (***) 3.1 -Statement and Evaluation of the Consequences of License Denial (***). 3.2 -Future Use of the Damsites if the License is Denied (***)• • • • 4 -FINANCING (***)• • • • • • • • • • • • • • •..... D-3-1 D-3-l D-4-1 4.1 -General Approach and Procedures (***) 4.2 Financing Plan (***)•••• 4.3 -Annual Costs (***)••.•••• . . D-4-1 D-4-1 D-4-3 851014 ix SUMMARY TABLE OF CONTENTS (cont'd) EXHIBIT D PROJECT COSTS AND FINANCING Title Page ,No. 4.4 -Market Value of Power (***)• 4.5 -Rate Stabilization (***) 4.6 -Sensitivity of Analyses (***)••.. . . D-4-4 D-4-4 D-4-4 T 5 -REFERENCES (***) 851014 •• • •e,• • • • • • • • • •e • • • x D-5-1 1 -~~. ~~ J :1 :1 ,J 1 I I J ,I- I 1 ,1 SUMMARY TABLE OF CONTENTS (cont I d) EXHIBIT D -APPENDIX D1 FUELS PRICING . . . . .. Title 1 -INTRODUCTION (***) 2 -WORLD OIL PRICE (***)• o • • • • • •.. . . ... . . .. Page No. Dl-l-l Dl-2-1 2.1 -The Sherman H.Clark Associates Forecast (***) 2.2 The Composite Oil Price Forecast (***)••• 2.3 -The Wharton Forecast (***)•••••• Dl-2-1 Dl-2-2 Dl-2-5 3 -NATURAL GAS (***)•••••....... ....Dl-3-1 3.1 -Cook Inlet Gas Prices (***) 3.2 Regulatory Constraints on the Availability of Natural Gas (***)• . • • • • • • • • • • • • 3.3 -Physical Constraints on the Availability of Cook Inlet Natural Gas Supply (***)• • • • • 3.4 North Slope Natural Gas (***)•••• Dl-3-1 Dl-3-10 Dl-3-12 Dl-3-20 4 -COAL (***)• • • • • •e-• • • • • • • • • • •Dl-4-l II'_,..1 4.1 -Resources and Reserves (***)••••. 4.2 -Demand and Supply (***)•.•••••. 4.3 -Present and Potential Alaska Coal Prices (***) 4.4 -Alaska Coal Prices Summarized (***).•..• Dl-4-1 Dl-4-3 Dl-4-4 Dl-4-10 5 -DISTILLATE OIL (***)...... .......Dl-5-1 5.1 -Availability (***) 5.2 -Distillate Price (***) D1~5-1 Dl-5-1 6 -REFERENCES 851014 .............. ...... xi Dl-6-1 SUMMARY TABLE OF CONTENTS (cant'd) EXHIBIT E -CHAPTER 1 GENERAL DESCRIPTION OF THE LOCALE Title I --:-.:::::-'!"!':> J i E-1-2-1 E-1-3-1 E-l-1-1 E-l-l-l E-1-1-2 Page No • •eo.•• . ...... • • • • • 0 0 •• •••••• •0 • • 0 • • •e e • • • • • • ••0 •G e • • • • • • • • • ••• • e 0 1.1 -General Setting (**) 1.2 -Susitna Basin (*)• . 1 -GENERAL DESCRIPTION (*)0 •0 3 -GLOSSARY 2 -REFERENCES l2j ) ! xii ;] I ) I I i- l J I 1 SUMMARY TABLE OF CONTENTS (cont'd) EXHIBIT E -CHAPTER 2 WATER USE AND QUALITY 2 -BASELINE DESCRIPTION (**)•. . . . . . Title 1 -INTRODUCTION (**)..... . . .... .. ... ...o •••• • •0 Page No. E-2-1-1 E-2-2-1 E-2-3-1 E-2-2-3 E-2-2-12 E-2-2-19 E-2-2-46 E-2-2-49 E-2-2-50 E-2-2-63 E-2-2-64 ·... ·..• • .. .. . . 2.1 -Susitna River Morphology (**)• 2.2 -Susitna River Water Quantity (**) 2.3 -Susitna River Water Quality (**). 2.4 -Baseline Ground Water Conditions (**)• 2.5 Existing Lakes,Reservoirs,and Streams (**) 2.6 -Existing Instream Flow Uses (0)••••••••• 2.7 -Access Plan (**) 2.8 -Transmission Corridor (**). 3 -OPERATIONAL FLOW REGIME SELECTION (***)• I 3.1 -Project Reservoir Characteristics (***) 3.2 -Reservoir Operation Modeling (***)••..••• 3.3 -Development of Alternative Environmental Flow Cases (***)•.••.••••...• 3.4 -Detailed Discussion of Flow Cases (***)•.••• 3.5 -Comparison of Alternative Flow Regimes (***). 3.6 -Other Constraints on Project Operation (***)•. 3.7 -Power and Energy Production (***)••••• E-2-3-1 E-2-3-2 K-2-3-6 E-2-3-17 E,:,"2-3-37 E-2-3-43 E-2-3-53 4 -PROJECT IMPACT ON WATER QUALITY AND QUANTITY (**)•••E-2-4-1 4.1 -Watana Development (**)•••••• 4.2 -Devil Canyon Development (**)••• 4.3 -Watana Stage III Development (***). 4.4 -Access Plan (**)•••••••••• E-2-4-7 E-2-4-110 E-2-4-160 E-2-4-211 5 -AGENCY CONCERNS AND RECOMMENDATIONS (**).... ...E-2-5-1 6 -MITIGATION,ENHANCEMENT,AND PROTECTIVE MEASURES (**)•E-2-6-1 6.1 -Introduction (*).•.••....••.•.•. 6.2 -Mitigation -Watana Stage I -Construction (**). 6.3 -Mitigation -Watana Stage I -Impoundment (**). E-2-6-1 E-2-6-1 E-2-6-5 851014 xiii .00 • SUMMARY TABLE OF CONTENTS (cont'd) EXHIBIT E -CHAPTER 2 WATER USE AND QUALITY Title 6.4 -Watana Stage I Operation (**)• 6.5 -Mitigation -Devil Canyon Stage II - Construction (**)••••••• 6.6 -Mitigation -Devil Canyon Stage II - Impoundment (**)••••• • • • • • 6.7 -Mitigation -Devil Canyon/Watana Operation (**)• 6.8 -Mitigation -Watana Stage III -.' Construction (***)•••••••••• 6.9 -Mitigation -Watana Stage III - Impoundment/Construction (***) 6.10 -Mitigation -Stage III Operation (***) 6.11 -Access Road and Transmission Lines (***)• Page No. E-2-6-7 E-2-6-13 E-2-6-13 E-2-6-13 E-2-6-15 E-2-6-16 E-2-6-16 E-2-6-18 J :.J 1 \ '1 J .-=-=-:;~ .·1 j 7 -REFERENCES 8 ~GLOSSARY • • • ••• • • • • • • • • • • 0 e G • • • e • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • E-2-7-1 E-2-8-1 l ] 1 i 1 1 -. 1 ] SUMMARY TABLE OF CONTENTS (cont'd) EXHIBIT E -CHAPTER 3 FISH,WILDLIFE,AND BOTANICAL RESOURCES Title Page No. 1 -INTRODUCTION (0)E-3-1-1 1.1 -Baseline Descriptions (0) 1.2 -Impact Assessments (*) 1.3 -Mitigation Plans (*) 2 -FISH RESOURCES OF THE SUSITNA RIVER DRAINAGE (**)•... E-3-1-1 E-3-1-1 E-3-1-3 E-3-2-1 2.1 -Overview of the Resources (**)••••• 2.2 -Species Biology and Habitat Utilization in the Susitna River Drainage (*)•••• 2.3 -Anticipated Impacts To Aquatic Habitat (**) 2.4 -Mitigation Issues and Mitigating Measures (**) 2.5 -Aquatic Studies Program (*)•••• • • • • • 2.6 -Moni toring Studies (**)• • • • • • • • • 2.7 -Cost of Mitigation (***)•••••••• 2.8 -Agency Consultation on Fisheries Mitigation Measures (**)• • • • • • • • • • • • • • •0 • • • E-3-2-1 E-3-2-14 E-3-2-104 E-3-2-244 E-3-2-279 E-3-2-280 E-3-2-303 E-3-2:-304 E-3-3-1 :e:-3-3-1 E-3-3-6 E-3-3-34 E-3-3-63 E-3-4-1 E-3-4-1 E-3-4-3 E-3-4-110 E-3-4-248 E-3-5-1 E-3-5-1 E-3-5-1 E-3-5-2 E-3-5-3 -- ... . . ..... .. . .. ·. .. . . . .·... ·..••• ....... •••.. .(**)•••• 5.1 -Introduction (***) 5.2 -Existing Conditions (***) 5.3 -Expected Air Pollutant Emissions (***). 5.4 Predicted Air Quality Impacts (***)•. 3.1 -Introduction (*) 3.2 -Baseline Description (**)••••• 3.3 -Impacts (**)•••• 3.4 -Mitigation Plan (**)•••••••• 4.1 -Introduction (*)••. 4.2 -Baseline Description (**) 4.3 -Impacts (*).. 4.4 -Mitigation Plan (**)•••• 3 -BOTANICAL RESOURCES (**) 5 -AIR QUALITY/METEOROLOGY (***)• 4 -WILDLIFE 851014 xv Title 5.5 -Regulatory-Agency Consultations (***) SUMMARY TABLE OF CONTENTS (cont 'd) EXHIBIT E -CHAPTER 3 FISH,WILDLIFE,AND BOTANI'CAL RESOURCES } ,l J .\ r J --~~ 1 ] .1 1 ,J I ] 1 E-3-6-1 E-3-7-1 E-3-5-3 Page No. • • • • •e _ •eo.•.... • • • • • • • • • • • • • •0 0 eo. METHODS USED TO DETERMINE MOOSE BROWSE UTILIZATION AND CARRYING CAPACITY WITHIN THE MIDDLE SUSITNA BASIN STATUS AND RELATIVE ABUNDANCE OF BIRD SPECIES OBSERVED ON THE LOWER SUSITNA BASIN DURING GROUND SURVEYS CONDUCTED JUNE 10 THE JUNE 20,1982 STATUS,HABITAT USE AND RELATIVE ABUNDANCE OF-BIRD SPECIES IN THE MIDDLE SUSITNA BASIN -..•..•..•...•••...•"._._....._..__-_.•"..~."_••_•..•·'"0''·''''--''-'''• PLANT SPECIES IDENTIFIED IN SUMMERS OF 1980 AND 1981 IN THE UPPER AND MIDDLE SUSITNA RIVER BASIN,THE DOWNSTREAM FLOODPLAIN,AND THE INTERTIE FISH AND WILDLIFE MITIGATION POLICY ENVIRONMENTAL GUIDELINES MEMORANDUM (THIS APPENDIX H!S BEEN DELETED) PRELIMINARY LIST OF PLANT SPECIES IN THE INTERTIE AREA (THIS SECTION HAS BEEN DELETED AND ITS Im'Q~'l'IQlll_I~~Q~OR4'l'~D I~TO _APPENlLIX.E3~__)~~._~. -"-"---'SCIENTIFICNAMESOFMAMMAL'SPECIES:FbUND .IN THE ·_~·_--_··--""':"""'--PROJECT~AREA------.-..--.------,,----------"---------------..- E8.3 E2.3 7 ...GLOSSARY E1.3 E5.3 E4.3 E3.3 APPENDICES 6 -REFERENCE • ..._--~--------------- E9.3 EXPLANATION AND JUSTIFICATION OF ARTIFICIAL NEST MITIGATION (THIS SECTION HAS BEEN DELETED) PERSONALCOMMUNICAT!ONS(THIS-SECTIONHAS BEEN DELETED) E11.3 851014 EXISTING AIR QUALITY AND METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS xvi SUMMARY TABLE OF CONTENTS (cont'd) EXHIBIT E -CHAPTER 4 HISTORIC AND ARCHEOLOGICAL RESOURCES Title 1 -INTRODUCTION AND-SUMMARY (**)•eo...• • ..... Page No. E-4-1-1 1.1 -Program Objectives (**) 1.2 -Program Specifics (**)• 0 • •• • • E-4-1-4 E-4-1-4 2 -BASELINE DESCRIPTION (**)•4D •0 •Cl o • ••e • • • •E-4-2-1 2.1 -The Study Area (**)•.•••• 2.2 -Methods -Archeology and History (**)•••••• 2.3 -Methods -Geoarcheology (**).•• 2.4 -Known Archeological and Historic Sites in the Project Area (**)•••••• 2.5 Geoarcheology (**)•••••••• E-4-2-1 E-4-2-2 E-4-2-10 E-4-2-12 E-4-2-13 3 -EVALUATION OF AND IMPACT ON HISTORICAL AND ARCHEOLOGICAL SITES (**)••••••·.. . ...E-4-3-1 3.1 -Evaluation of Selected Sites Found: Prehistory and History of the Middle Susitna Region (**)• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 3.2 -Impact on Historic and Archeological Sites (**)•:I lJ 4 -MITIGATION OF IMPACT ON HISTORIC AND ARCHEOLOGICAL SITES(**)• • • • • • •..• • ..... E-4-3-1 E-4-3-4 E-4-4-1 4.1 -Mitigation Policy and Approach (**) 4.2 -Mitigation Plan (**)•••• E-4-4-1 E-4-4-2· 5 -AGENCY CONSULTATION (**)...............E-4-5-1 6 -REFERENCES 7 -GLOSSARY 851014 ..... . ................ ............ .... .... xvii E-4-6-1 E-4-7-1 :] SUMMARY TABLE OF CONTENTS (cont'd)'\ EXHIBIT E -CHAPTER 5 SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS 2 -BASELINE DESCRIPTION (**)•co •.. Title 1 -INTRODUCTION (**).. .. .. ..co •co .. .. Cil .0. •co •co co ... ... ..... Page.No. E-5-1-1 E-5-2-1 1 I 2.1 -Identification of Socioeconomic Impact Areas (**)• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •E-5-2-1 2.2 -Description of Employment,Popu1ation~Personal Income and Other Trends.in the Impact Areas (**)E-5-2-1 3.1 -Impact of In-migration of People on Governmental Facilities and-Services (**)••oro 0 •E-5-3-2 3.2 -On-site Worker Requirements and Payroll, by Year and Month'(**)•••••••••••E-5-3-32 3.3 -Residency and Movement of Project Construction Personnel (**)• • • • • • • • • • •E-5-3-35 3.4 -Adequacy of Available Housing in Impact Areas (***)••••••••••••••E-5-3-39 ---~~~3,.5-.""'-Displ ac ement~an~~:r.n£l,uenGeson--Res-idences~and-··_..... Businesses (**)• • • • • • • • • • • • . • • • •E-5-3-49 3.6 -Fiscal Impact Analysis:Evaluation of Incremental Local Government Expenditures and Revenues (**)• • • • • • • • • • •E-5-3-59 3.7 -Local and Regional Impacts on Resource User Groups (**)• • • •..• • •E-5-3-65 1 .~~. 1 .J . ,-..] ! 1 E-5-4-2 E-5-3-1 E-5-4-1 E-5-4-1 E-5-4-2 . ... o • •It • -Introduction (**)••• -Background and Approach (**)••••• -Attitudes Toward Changes (This section deleted) -Mitigation Objectives and Measures (**) 3 -EVALUATION OF THE IMPACT OF THE PROJECT (**) 4.4 '--~---"--""---4.1 4.2 4.3 I j xviii 1 SUMMARY TABLE OF CONTENTS (cont'd) EXHIBIT E ,-CHAPTER 5 SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS Title Page No. 5 -MITIGATION MEASuREs RECOMMENDED BY AGENCIES(**)•0 • •E-5-5-1 5.1 -Alaska Department of Natural Resources (DNR)(**) 5.2 -Alaska Department of Fish and Game (ADF&G)(*) 5.3 -U.S.Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS)(*) 5.4 -Summary of Agencies'Suggestions for Further Studies that Relate to Mitigation (**) E-5-5-1 E-5-5-1 E-5-5-2 E-5-5-2 6 -REFERENCES 851014 • • • • • • ••••0 0 0 0 • • • • • • • • xix E-6-6-1 ,1 J J J I 1 1 .-~~ 1 } 1 I I 1 'j 1 1 L -~ 1 I J J E-6-4-1 E-6-5-1 E-6-3-1 E-6-6-1 E-6-3-1 E-6-3-4 E-6-3-4 E-6-3-11 E-6-3-11 E-6-3-11-.- E-6-3-12 E-6-1-1 E-6-2-1 E-6-2-1 E-6-2-2 E-6-2-3 E-6-2-4 E-6-2-11 E-6-2-17 E-6-2-23 Page No. .. ... o • • •..0 •• • . . . . .. •IJ • • • ••• •to • . . •••• •Cl'• •1/1 to to • 0 Cl • • ..• 0 ..... • •0 e • • xx • • •u •••• •to to 000 • • •• •• o 0 ... (*)... • • • 0 o • • •0 • • ••• EXHIBIT E -CHAPTER 6 GEOLOGICAL AND SOIL RESOURCES ••Cl • o •0 • SUMMARY TABLE OF CONTENTS (cant'd) ••• o •.. -Regional Geology (*)• • • • • • • • -Quarternary Geology (*)• • • • • • • -Mineral Resources·(o)•••••• -Seismic Geology (*)• • • • ••••••• -Watana Damsite (**)•••••••••• -Devi~Canyon Damsite (0)•••••• -Reservoir Geology (*)• • • • 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 5 -REFERENCES 851014 Title 6 -GLOSSARY 3 -IMPACTS (*)... 2 -BASELINE DESCRIPTION 1 -INTRODUCTION 4 -MITIGATION (**)• 3.1 -Reservoir-Induced Seismicity (RIS)(*) 3.2 -Seepage (*)~••••••••• 3.3 Reservoir Slope Failures (**)••••• 3.4 -Permafrost Thaw (*1 •••••••••• 3.5 -Seismically-Induced Failure.(*)••••• -.-----.-3·.6--·Rese·1."voi-r--~-reeboa·rd-for--Wind--;.Waves-{**7•~..•-;• 3.7 -Development of Bo~row ~ites and Quarries (**) 4.1 -Impacts and Hazards (0)• • • • • • • • •••E-6-4-1 4.2 -Reservoir-Induced Seismicity (0)••••••E-6-4-1 4.3 -Seepage (**).• • • • • •..• • • • • • • •E-6-4-2 ......_._.....__.._____..4.4 __::.ReJH~r:v:oir_Slop.e F.ai lur.es_(~~)-..--.-.......•.•E-6-4-2 ..--.-----. 4.5 -Permafrost Thaw (**)•••••_._"-_•.__._._._._._._•..........E~6-Q.=3 _ 4.6 -Seismically-Induced Failure (*)• • • • • • • • •E-6-4-3 4.7 -Geologic Hazards (*).• • • • • • • • •••E-6-4-4 4.8 -Borrow and Quarry Sites (*)• • • •E-6-4-4 SUMMARY TABLE OF CONTENTS (cont'd) EXHIBIT E -CHAPTER 7 RECREATIONAL RESOURCES " Title 1 -INTRODUCTION (**j •.... ......eo.• • • • • Page No. E-7-1-1 1.1 -Purpose (**)••• 1.2 -Relationships to Other Reports (*) 1.3 -Study Approach and Methodology (**) 1.4 Project Description (**)••••• 2 -DESCRIPTION OF EXISTING AND FUTURE ~CREATION WITHOUT THE SUSITNA PROJECT (**)••••••·.. .. E-7-1-1 E-7-1-1 E-7-1-1 E-7-1-3 E-7-2-1 2.1 -Statewide and Regional Setting (**)••.•••• 2.2 -Susitna River Basin (**)•••••••••• E-7-2-1 E-7-2-8 3.1 -Direct Impacts of Project Features (**) 3.2 -Project Recreational Demand Assessment ••• (Moved to Appendix E4.7)II[J 3 -PROJECT IMPACTS ON EXISTING RECREATION (**)• 4 -FACTORS INFLUENCING THE RECREATION PLAN (**) • •••• ·. ... E-7-3-1 E-7-3-1 E-7-3-12 E-7-4-1 4.1 Characteristics of the Project Design and Operation (***)• • • • • • • • • • • • • • 4.2 -Characteristics of the Study Area (***). 4.3 -Recreation Use Patterns and Demand (***)•• 4.4 -Agency,Landowner and Applicant Plans and Policies (***)• • • • • • • • • • . • • • • • . 4.5 -Public Interest (***)••••••••••••.• 4.6 -Mitigation of Recreation Use Impacts (***) E-7-4-1 E-7-4-2 E-7-4-2 E-7-4-3 E-7-4-12 E-7-4-13 5 -RECREATION PLAN (**)............... ..E-7-5-1 5.1 -Recreation Plan Management Concept (***) 5.2 -Recreation Plan Guidelines (***) 5.3 -Recreational Opportunity Evaluation ••••• (Moved to Appendix E3.7.3) 5.4 -The Recreation Plan (**)••••••••• E-7-5-1 E-7-5-2 E-7-5-4 E-7-5-4 6 -PLAN IMPLEMENTATION (**) 851014 ...... ......... xxi E-7-6-1 SUMMARY TABLE OF CONTENTS (cottt'd) J ] 1 1 r ] --.-o _..~., J j ·-~J ! l j -J E-7-10-1 Page No. E-7-7-1 E-7-8-1 E-7-8-1 E-7-8-1 E-7-8-2 E-7-8-1 E-7-7-1 E-7-7-1 E-7-7-2 E-7-6-1 ]1;-7-6-1 E-7-6-2 E'-7-6-3 •• -.~.-.E-7--9-1·- .0.. . . . . •••G •••G •e _•• • • • •• • • •••• ••• DATA ON REGIONAL RECREATION FACILITIES EXHIBIT E -CHAPTER 7 RECREATIONAL RESOURCES 7.1 -Construction (**)• • • • • 7.2 -Operations and Maintenance (**) 7.3 -Monitoring (***)•••••••• 6.1 -Phasing (**)•••••••••• 6.2 -Detailed Recreation Design (***) 6.3 -Operation and Maintenance (***)•• 6 ~4 -Moni toring (**)• •~• • • • • • 8.1 -Agencies and Persons Consulted (**)• 8.2 -Agency Comments (**)••• 8.3 -Native Corporation Comments (***)• 8.4 -Consultation Meetings (***)• Title El.7 10 -GLOSSARY • APPENDICES 7 -COSTS FOR CONSTRUCTION AND OPERATION OF THE PROPOSED RECREATION FACILITIES (**)•••••••••••••• 8 -AGENCY COORDINATION (**) E4.7 SITE INVENTORY AND OPPORTUNITY EVALUATION PROJECT RECREATIONAL DEMAND ASSESSMENT 1 I E5.7 E6.7-- 851014 EXAMPLES OF TYPICAL RECREATION FACILITY DESIGN STANDARDS FOR THE SUSITNA PROJECT PHOTOGRAPHS OF·SITES 'WITHIN THE PROJECT RECREATION STUDY AREA xxii I L -- j ] 1 SUMMARY TABLE OF CONTENTS (cont'd) EXHIBIT E -CHAPTER 8 AESTHETIC RESOURCES Title 1 -INTRODUCTION (**)••••·........·..... Page No. E-8-1-1 1.1 Purpose (*)••••••••• 1.2 -Relationship to Other Analyses (*) 1.3 -Environmental Setting (**) E-8-1-1 E-8-1-1 E-8-1-1 2 -PROCEDURE (*)• • •••••·..• • • • • • •0 • • • E-8-2-1 3 -STUDY OBJECTIVES (*)• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 0 •E-8-3-1 4 -PROJECT FACILITIES (*)• • •0 • • • • • • • • • • • • E-8-4-1 · .. · .. 4.1 -Watana Project Area (*). 4.2 -Devil Canyon Project Area (*)• 4.3 -Watana Stage III Project Area (***)•• 4.4 -Denali Highway to Watana Dam Access Road (*) 4.5 -Watana Dam to Devil Canyon Dam Access Road (*) 4.6 -Transmission Lines (*)••..•. 4.7 -Intertie •..•..•••.e·• • • • • • (This section deleted) 4.8 -Recreation Facilities and Features (*) E-8-4-1 E-8-4-1 E-8-4-1 E-8-4-1 E-8-4-2 E-8-4-2 E-8-4-2 E-8-4-2 5 -EXISTING LANDSCAPE (**)•·.... ........ ..E-8-5-1 5.1 -Landscape Character Types (*) :5.2 -Notable Natural Features (**)· .... .· . ..E-8-5-1 E-8-5-1 6 -VIEWS (**).• • •·•·• • • .• •••··••·••E-8-6-1 6.1 -Viewers (***)···..···E:-8-6-1 6.2 -Visibility (***)· ·· · E-8-6-1 7 -AESTHETIC EVALUATION RATINGS (**)•••·• ••• ••·E-8-7-1 7.1 -Aesthetic Value Rating (*) 7.2 -Absorption Capability (*)•. 7.3 -Composite Ratings (**)•••· .· ... E-8-7-1 E-8-7-1 E-8-7-2 851014 xxiii SUMMARY TABLE OF CONTENTS (cont'd) EXHIBIT E -CHAPTER 8 AESTHETIC RESOURCES Title Page No. SITE PHOTOS WITH SIMULATIONS OF PROJECT FACILITIES 8.1 -Mitigation Planning of Incompatible Aesthetic Impacts (Now addressed in Section 9) 8.2 -Watana Stage I (***).••••• 8.3 -Devil Canyon Stage II (***)••••• 8.4 -Watana Stage III (***)• • • • 8.5 -Access Routes (***)• • ••••• 8.6 -Transmission Facilities (***) 11.1 -Agencies and Persons Consulted (**). 11.2 -Agency Comments (**).•••• 1 ] .'--=-=::~. j 1 1 J J ] .] 1 j L ] J ] E-8-10-1 E-8-12-1 E-8-11-1 E-8-9-1 E-8-9-1 E-8-9..;.2 E-8-9-11 E-8-9-12 E-8-13-1 _ E-8-11-1 E-8-11-1 E-8-8-1 E-8-8-2 E-8-8-3 E-8-8-4 E-8-8-5 E-8-8-6 E-8-8-1 •• • • • •0 • • • • ..... •• •• ·.. •• ••• •• • ••• •• •• • • •• •••• •~• • • •G • • • • • • • •G ........ .xxiv E'HO'I,'OS --OFE'ROE'OSED.:E'ROJECT ~ACILITIES.SITES EXCEPTIONAL NATURAL FEATURES EXAMPLES OF EXISTING AESTHETIC IMPACTS 9.1 -Mitigation Feasibility (**)•• 9.2 -Mitigation Plan (***) 9.3 -Mitigation Costs (**)•••• 9.4 -Mitigation Monitoring (***)•• 11 -AGENCY COORDINATION (**) 9 -MITIGATION (**)• • ••• • • E2.8 E1.8 APPENDICES 12 -REFERENCES • E3.8. E4.8 8 -AESTHETIC IMPACTS (**) ·851014 10 -AESTHETIC IMPACT EVALUATION OF THE INTERTIE -------·--~--fThi-s-Secti-on-De-l-ected:--)" SUMMARY TABLE OF CONTENTS (cont'd) EXHIBIT E -CHAPTER 8 AESTHETIC RESOURCES Title APPENDICES (cont'd) Page No. IJ IJ 1.1 E5.8 E6.8 E7.8 E8.8 E9.8 851014 EXAMPLES OF RESERVOIR EDGE CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO THOSE ANTICIPATED AT WATANA AND DEVIL CANYON DAMS PROJECT FEATURES IMPACTS AND CHARTS GENERAL AESTHETIC MITIGATION MEASURES APPLICABLE TO THE PROPOSED PROJECT LANDSCAPE CHARACTER TYPES OF THE PROJECT AREA AESTHETIC VALUE AND ABSORPTION CAPABILITY RATINGS xxv SUMMARY TABLE OF CONTENTS (cont'd) EXHIBIT E -CHAPTER 9 LAND USE Title 1 -INTRODUCTION (~)• • • • •....•..• •......•to e 0 Page No. E-9-1-1 2 -HISTORICAL AND PRESENT LAND USE (**'*)E-9-2-1 4 -IMPACTS ON LAND USE WITH AND WITHOUT THE PRO.1ECT (***). AREA.(***)• • •,•••••••fie ••• 3 -LAND MANAGEMENT PLANNING IN THE PROJECT ] -~~. 'I ] 1 ~1 1 -j ] ] J 1 ] -I 1 E-9-3-1 E-9-6-1 E-9-5-1 E-9-4-1 E-9-2-1 E-9-2-1 ... .. .. .... D • 0 • 0 ...... .... • •• .... .... .0.. . . . .... .. • • • D DOD •• • .... xxvi ... ..... • • • • ... •• • • 2.i -Historical Land Use (***) 2.2 -Present Land Use (***) 5 -MITIGATION (***) 6-REFERENCES 851014 SUMMARY TABLE OF CONTENTS (cont'd) EXHIBIT E -CHAPTER 10 ALTERNATIVE LOCATIONS,DESIGNS,AND ENERGY SOURCES Title 1 -ALTERNATIVE HYDROELECTRIC SITES (*)••0 0 0 0 0 1.1 -Non-Susitna Hydroelectric Alternatives (*) 1.2 -Assessment of Selected Alternative Hydroelectric Sites (***)••••. 1.3 -Middle Susitna Basin Hydroelectric Alternatives (0)•••••••• 1.4 -Overall Comparison of Non-Susitna Hydroelectric Alternat1ves to the Proposed Susitna Project (***)••• Page No. E-10-I-1 E-IO-I-I E-IO-1-2 E-10-I-I7 E-IO-I-32 2 -ALTERNATIVE FACILITY DESIGNS (*)... . .....E-IO-2-1 2.1 -Watana Facility Design Alternatives (*)...•• 2.2 -Devil Canyon Facility Design Alternatives (0) 2.3 -Access Alternatives (0)••••••••••••• 2.4 -Transmission Alternatives (0)••• 2.5 -Borrow Site Alternatives (**)••••• E-IO-2-1 E-10-2-3 E-10-2-4 E-1O;...2-24 E-IO-2-53 3 -OPERATIONAL FLOW REGIME SELECTION (***)0 .......E-10-3-1 3.1 -Project Reservoir Characteristics (***) 3.2 -Reservoir Operation Modeling (***) 3.3 -Development of Alternative Environmental Flow Cases (***)••.•••.•••.•• 3.4 -Detailed Discussion of Flow Cases (***)• • • • • 3.5 -Comparison of Alternative Flow Regimes (***) 3.6 -Other Constraints on Project Operation (***) 3.7 -Power and Energy Production (***)••• E:"10-3-1 E":"10-3-2 E-1O-3-6 E-10-3-17 E-10-3-38 E-1O-3-43 E-10-3-53 4 -ALTERNATIVE ELECTRICAL ENERGY SOURCES (***)••. ...E-10-4-1 Iij 4.1 -Coal-Fired Generation Alternatives (***) 4.2 -Thermal Alternatives Other Than Coal (***) 4.3 -Tidal Power Alternatives (***)•••• 4.4 -Nuclear Steam Electric Generation (***) 4.5 -Biomass Power Alternatives (***) 4.6 -Geothermal Power Alternatives (***)•• E-lO-4-1 E-lO-4-27 E-lO-4-39 E-lO-4-41 E-lO-4-42 E-lO-4-42 851014 xxvii SUMMARY TABLE OF CONTENTS (cont'd) EXHIBIT E -CHAPTER 10 ALTERNATIVE LOCATIONS,DESIGNS,AND ENERGY SOURCES 5 -ENVIRONMENTAL CONSEQUENCES OF LICENSE DENIAL (***) Title 4.7 -Wind Conversion Alternatives (***) 4.8 -Solar Energy Alternatives (***) 4.9 -Conservation Alternatives (***)~• . . . . . ... Page No. E-lO-4-43 E-1O-4-44 E-lO-4-44 E-lO-5-1 J -j 1 j r 7 -GLOSSARY ""E-IO-7-1 6 -REFERENCES 851014 ••••e ~.~••0 ••••0 •..e 0 G ••0 xxviii E-1O-6-1 ] -J ) 1 1 ] ] \ 1 1. ~ ) ] 1 SUMMARY TABLE OF CONTENTS (cont'd) EXHIBIT E -CHAPTER 11 AGENCY CONSULTATION Title Page No. 1 -ACTIVITIES PRIOR-TO FILING THE INITIAL APPLICATION (1980-February 1983)(***)• • • • 0 0 • • •E-1l-1-1 2 -ADDITIONAL FORMAL AGENCY AND PUBLIC CONSULTATION (***)• • • • • • • • ••e G • • •eo.•E-1l-2-1 2.1 -Technical Workshops (***) 2.2 -Ongoing Consultation (***)••••••••• 2.3 -Further Comments and Consultation (***) .,.~E-1l-2-1 E-1l-2-1 E-1l-2-2 ..-:----, 851014 xxix SUMMARY TABLE OF CONTENTS (cont'd) EXHIBIT F SUPPORTING DESIGN REPORT (PRELIMINARY) Title Page No. • • •0 • • • • ••0 •• ·... 3.1 -Governing Codes and Standards (0) 3.2 -Design Loads (**)• 3.3 -Stability (*)••• 3.4 -Material Properties (0) eo.• • 'I ..._~~. i:ilJ 'I 'I ) ) F-4-1 F-3-1 F-l-l F-2-1 F-4-1 F""4-10 F-3-1 F-3-1 F-3-6 F-3-9 F-2-1 F-2-1 F-2-1 F-2-1 F-2-1 F-2-2 ... ... ·.. .... ...... o 0 • • It CJ;• • .... ·.. . ·.... • • • 0 • 0 • • · . . . . . . . .. · .. .... II II .10. ... · . .. ...... ·.. ... .. •• •• 2.1 -Topographical Data (0) 2.•2 -Hydrological Data (**) 2.3 -Meteorological Data (*) 2.4 -Reservoir Data (0) 2.5 -Tailwater Elevations (0) 2.6 -Design Floods (**) 4.1 -Wa tana (**)• • • • 4.2 -Devil Canyon (**)•••• 3 -CIVIL DESIGN DATA (*) 1 -PROJECT DATA (***).. 2 -PROJECT DESIGN DATA (**) 4 -GEOTECHNICAL DESIGN DATA (**).. 6 -EQUIPMENT DESIGN CODES AND STANDARDS (**)........·..•F-6-1 6.1 -Design Codes and Sta.ndards (*)·.·..•···F....6-1 6.2 -General Criteria (*)·.·.··.··•·F-6-2 5.1 -River Flows (**)•••••••F-5-l 5.2 -Design Flows (**)• • • • • • • •F-5-1 5.3 -Reservoir Levels (**)• • • • • • • •'.!...Jr-5....L·····---.r:-4-:;-Re-s·ervoIr·OperafIng-Jiufe--T**).. . .... . ...F-5 -2 ··-·~---~----~--------~-5-:;;--Reservo i r --Da ta (**)~-:--:-:-~---=----:-~.-=---=---~--_=_--:--:-_:_.F-5-2 5.6 -Wind Effect (**)••• • • • • • •F-5-3 5.7 -Criteria (***)•••••••••••••F-5-3 5 -HYDRAULIC DESIGN DATA (**)·.............F-5-1 851014 ,1 ] 1 SUMMARY TABLE OF CONTENTS (cont'd) EXHIBIT F SUPPORTING DESIGN REPORT (PRELIMINARY) Title 6.3 Diversion 'Structures and Emergency Release Facilities (*)••••. • • • 6.4 -Spillway (**)•• 6.5 -Outlet Facilities (*) 6.6 -Power Intake (*) 6.7 -Powerhouse (**)• 6.8 Tailrace Tunnels(**) Page No. F-6-4 F-6-6 F-6-6 F-6-8 F-6-9 F-6-12 .-c=:~.. 7 -REFERENCES APPENDICES • • •••e • •. ...... . . ...F-7-1 F1 F2 F3 851014 THIS APPENDIX DELETED WATANA AND DEVIL CANYON EMBANKMENT STABILITY ANALYSES SUMMARY AND PMF AND SPILLWAY DESIGN FLOOD ANALYSES XXX 1 ] 10) ..•. (,1 ,) " ',1 ,,j ~,l ~,/ \'1 :1 ,) :1 J ---~..._-_._-" ,1 ,) ':') "1 ~j ] STATE MODEL :1 J :J l Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 ISER MAP ALASKA ECONOMIC MODEL: STATE MODEL DOCUMENTATION 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. Appendixes Introduction Economic Module Description Fiscal Module Description . Demographic Module Description Input Variables . . . . . . Variable and Parameter Name Conventions Parameter Values,Definitions and Sources. Model Validation and Properties Input Data Sources Programs for Model Use Model Adjustments for Simulation Key to Regressions Input Data Archives 1-1 2-1 3-1 4-1 5-1 6-1 7-1 8-1 9-1 10-1 11-1 12-1 13-1 A.Equation List B.Coefficient and Parameter Values C.Stochastic Equations D.Input Variable Default Values E.Startup Values F.Variable and Parameter Dictionary i Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 Figure 1. Figure 2. Figure 3. LIST OF FIGURES AND TABLES Alaska Employment Growth MAP Economic Model Structure MAP Demographic Module Structure 1-3 2-3 4-2 Employment Variables Used in MAP Economic Model . • j } .[ '·~1 7-10 7-11 3-7 3-2 3-10 3-4 4-4 2-9 2-6 •II • • Alaska Population,April 1,1980 Demographic Model Output State Expenditures State Revenues Links Between Fiscal and Economic Activity Personal Income Variables Used in MAP Economic Model . • • ~Paramet-ers~of·~Chorce:-State-"Fis cai--Rule"- for Spending Limit Case (EXRL5) Table 1. Table 2. Table 3. Table 4. Table 5. ~~~~Tabt~e 6-~- Table 7. Table 8. Table 9. .--.-----.------".-.----.-. 1980 Births:Number of Births and Birth Ratesper~Thousand_WomeninFive=yeaJ:' ~~~~~~__~~~~~~~Age Cohorts,Alaska Residents ._.__._-".._.-,,__• Table 10.1980 Deaths:Number of Deaths and Death Rates per Thousand,Alaska Residents 7-12 Table 11.Estimated Exogenous O~t-Migration Rates .7-13 Estimated Civilian Migration Rates to Anchorage Table 12. Table 13. Table 14. civilian Migration to Anchorage, Alaska PUbl~~S'l1t:'v~Y~Clll\~l~..•• 1980 Alaska Civilian Headship Rates . ii II-....•............•.....•.......•7-14 7-15 7-16 1\ ., I \ J i IlJ Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 Table 15.Alaska Civilian Population in Group Quarters,1980 . . . .· ·····7-17 Table 16.Alaska Military Hous.eholds 7-18 Table 17.Historical Simulation of Economic Module 8-2 Table 18.Comparison of Actual and Predicted Net Migration.to Alaska . .· · · . . .8-6 Table 19.Variables Used to Monitor Simulation 8-8 Table 20.No-Growth Projection Results 8-11 Table 21.Impacts of a One-Time Increase in Construction Employment · · · .· · · · 8-14 Table 22.Gas Pipeline Construction Impact 8-15 Table 23.Impacts of a sustained Increase in Construction Employment · · · . ..· · ··.8-16 iii ,\ ') ,~ ;1 :'I I \ ,-I 'I ,'J ,1 i ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- J J \ 't - Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A8S.1 Introduction This report describes the core of the Institute for Social and Economic Research (ISER)Man-in-the-Arctic Program.(MAP)Alaska Economic Model.It consists of modules representing the economic, fiscal,and demographic structure of the state.The Native economic activity,state capital stock,and income distribution model linking modules are documented elsewhere.A scenario generator model provides input for running the model.The ISER MAP Alaska Economic Model was developed at the University of Alaska in the early 1970s under a grant from the National Science Foundation.Since its original use to demonstrate the economic,demographic,and fiscal impacts on Alaska of different schedules of federally imposed petroleum development scenarios,it has been used in a variety of types of analyses.These range from analyzing the economic and fiscal effects of specific private sector projects,to the analysis of the implications of different aggregate state wealth management strategies,to the projection of likely economic futures for the state to assist in electricity load forecasting. These uses reflect the fact that the MAP model is designed for and primarily used for long-run policy analyses,impact analyses, and projections.The analyses are not predictions,but rather "what if"experiments.As such,the model has a different structure from one designed specifically for prediction.Whereas a model designed for prediction may not place a priority on describing how an economy works,a policy analysis model such as the MAP model will trade off some predictive ability for the more useful attribute of accurately reflecting within its structure how the economy works. Because it is a long-run model,furthermore,the MAP model is not concerned with capturing all the short-run fluctuations which affect the economy over the course of the business cycle (or the seasons).Rather,the model attempts to capture the underlying structural changes affecting the longer-run growth trajectory of the state.For this purpose,the other types of regional models in common use--economic base models and input-output models--are inadequate. The economic base model is'the easiest type of model to construct and use,requiring in its simplest formulation only that the basic and nonbasic sectors of the economy be identified by one of several established techniques.The ratio of nonbasic to basic activity becomes the estimate of activity which would be generated by an increase in basic activity.The simplicity of the model means that it can be widely used,but only for a narrow range of state analyses.All variations of economic activity are assumed to originate in changes in basic sector activity and the ratio of nonbasic to basic activity is assumed constant.Neither assumption makes sense for the analysis of economic growth in Alaska. 1-1 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 The input-output model provides much more detail on the interrelationships among industries wi.thin a regional economy and can trace the impact of a change in basic sector activity in much greater detail than an economic base model.Differential impacts from changes in different sectors of the economy can be traced. Data requirements are the largest problem in model implementation, although techniques have been developed to regionalize input-output models and make them transferable from region to region.The basic conceptual problems with input-output models are the assumption of constant coefficients over time and the fact that all economic change originates in the export sector.Constant coefficients for interindustry flows ,and interregional trade flows assume away economies of scale,other types of agglomeration economies such as urbanization,technological change,and impot't substitution. Input-output analysis is better suited for economies more mature than Alaska which have significant interindustry flows in manufacturing.Most Alaskan industry invodves the extraction and exporting of natural resources or support activities such as trade and services.Neither is amenable to input-output analysis. Econometric models offer much more flexibility in modeling regions than either economic base or input-output-type models in the sense that they can incorporate other facets of growth into the analysis.They can include the ideas from economic base and input-output models,but in addition they can treat other sources of growth and the evolution of ,the regional economy over time as it ---c.liangesfof'fii~Some .of-.these -capabilities ....itlclude ·theahilityto handle a changing ratio of basic-to-nonbasic employment,to incorporate a fiscal sector into the model of the economy ,to include relative regional prices in the model,and to handle the determination of personal income and popuation based on activity within the region.The more comprehensive modeling approach also forces consistency and independent checks into any analysis. ········-------To,---i-Hus trate--the .,.importance-of--the-evolution--of·····the---economy ._~,---._~,____0JT.er-.time,,-E.igur.e_1_shows~the_gr.o,wth_s_inc_e~19_6_0~o_f_t,he~e_c_Ql)Qroy_a_s .,_~,,__ measured by four categories of employment.It is clear that the relationship between basic and support sector employment has changed dramatically over the years.Any long-run analysis done in 1960 using an economic base or input-output model projecting into the future would have vastly underestimated actual growth.In the same manner,it would underestimate the level of impacts ina growing "economy.This type 'of misunderstanding was ..definitely a factor in ~_the_under.estimationo£,impacts _for_alLapriorL__analyses_oJ j;.he Alyeska pipeline. 1--2 , J , 1 ,) 1 ,1 1 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A8S.1 FIG.1:ALASKA EMPLOYMENT (THOUSANDS) 250 250 225 225 200 200 175 175 150 150 125 125 100 100 75 75 50 50 BASIC 25 25 0 0 196J 1970 75 1980 82 Source:ISER Economic Data Base. 1-3 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A8S.1 The choice of model type is based upon uses anticipated for the model.The choice of actual structure depends upon this factor as well as the data which is available and the perceptions of economic interrelationships by the model builder.Both of these factors change over time,and,consequently,the model structure is constantly evolving in a way which maintains and improves its ability to analyze regional economic issues for a rapidly changing economy.The fact that the Alaskan economy is relatively underdeveloped by national standards makes analysis more subject to error than in a larger,more mature economy where the size and stability of the sectors provide not only a more stable track record of past change against which to analyze the future but also the confidence that change will continue to be gradual. In Alaska,economic change has been and will continue to be dramatic and abrupt.Analysis of past events and relationships do not always provide clear guides to future relationships. Consequently,policy analyses using any Alaskan economic model must recognize and _accept a _larger degree of _uncertainty than elsewhere as welfas the fact that different interpretations can be placed upon past events which have different future implications.Three particular areas where this is true are (1)the relationship between employment and population,(2)the growth of support relative to basic sector activity,and (3)the impact of state and local government on the-economy.1 :,.? :1 ;! I l ,I I 1The base case projection produced using this model UP8S.17 using scenario S8S.SUB6.An alternative base case using scenario S8S.SUB4. 1-4 is called is UP8S.16 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984.Model A8S.1 2.Description of the Economic Module of the MAP Economic Model 2.1.Summary The level of economic activity is a function of both export and support-oriented production.The output in the export sectors is determined exogenously while that of the support sectors is a function of local demand.reflected by disposable personal income and wealth.Export and support production generate wages and salaries which form the major portion.after personal taxes are deducted.of disposable personal income.Thus.demand and supply are simultaneously determined each year. The export sectors are portions of the following two-digit SIC categories:agriculture-forestry-fisheries,manufacturing,federal government.petroleum and other mining,transportation.and construction related to these activities.Tourism crosses sectoral boundaries and is also exogenous.All other sectors are classified as nonbasic.State and local government output is an important component of economic activity.which is determined by policy choice. The Alaskan economy is linked to the national economy through the average U.S.weekly wage,the U.S.consumer price index,the unemployment rate.and real disposable personal income per capita. The Alaskan versions of these variables are related to their national counterparts but are strongly affected by local conditions such as excess labor demand. The close transport link to the contiguous United states means that the supplies of most inputs are infinitely elastic.Thus,a change in demand does not directly affect the price level of these inputs which are not locally supplied.Labor and natural resources are locally supplied and thus changes in demand do affect price, particularly for labor in the short run.In the long run the supply of labor is also infinitely elastic. Data for model construction comes primarily from the Alaska Department of Labor employment statistics.the U.S.Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis personal income statistics,and the gross-product-by-industry series developed by the Institute of Social and Economic Research. 2-1 \ Institute of Social \ and Economic Research - MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A8S.1 I I ) 2.2.Introduction The structure of the economic module of the MAP model (as well as the demographic)is illustrated in highly simplified form in Figure 2.In general terms,the model proceeds sequentially to estimate industrial output,industry employment,wages and salaries, and finally real disposable personal income.However,the outputs of certain industries are themselves dependent on the level of personal income.Because of this interrelationship,total output and income are simultaneously determined in the model.For example, an increase in personal income,by increasing the demand for services,leads to increased output of the service sector.The extra output will,in turn,require additional workers,and the wages and salaries paid to these workers will add further to personal income.Thus,the process has come full circle, demonstrating that industrial output and personal income are indeed simultaneously interdependent. The model _uses several different approaches in determining the level of production in each industrial sector..This reflects the fact that the relevant causal mechanisms vary significantly from one industrial sector to another.In determining production levels,the model classifies industrial sectors into three broad categories: (1)those industries whose output is determined primarily by outside facto~s,(2)those industries whose output is determined by policy decisions,and (3)those industries whose output responds to changes -~~in -the -levei-ofeconomIcactTvI£y -wH.h:fn ATaska:These categorIes are,however,not mutually exclusive.Several of Alaska's important industries have their outputs determined by combinations of the above factors. The principal industries whose output is determined by outside forces are forestry,fisheries,agriculture,tourism,and the federal government.Production levels in forestry and fisheries, -Alaska's-traditional -resource=basedindustries,--are -determined by .~_._-----_._.---f-actors---such-~as-pri-ces-on--wor-ld---msrket.s-,-~supp-l-ies-of.-natu·F-s-l-------- resources,and policy decisions made by the federal and state governments concerning the appropriate utilization rates for Alaska's natural resources.Agriculture,now and in the future,is severely constrained by Alaska's harsh climate.Within the limits imposed by the climate,agricultural output in Alaska is determined .by factors such as _the availability of.suitable land,prices __of agricultural products,and government transportation policies. Tourism is constrained by the demand created by tourists ._.-from--·the United States and abroad,a demand which,nonetheless,can be stimulated by an improvement in the quantity and quality of tourist facilities.In addition to its regulatory and general policy-making role,the federal government sector has been,and undoubtedly will continue to be,a major direct element in the Alaska economy.The level of federal activity is determined primarily by national needs, with decisions concerning national defense playing a particularly 2-2 :.i ] FIGURE 2. State and Local Govt. Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A8S.1 MAP ECONOMIC MODEL STRUCTURE !-Ec----Petroleum BASIC SECTGRS Forertry Fisheries Federal govt. Agriculture rl'lanuf.for export Mining Tourism 2-3 Construction SUPPORT SECTORS Trade Finance Services Trans;Jortation Communications .Manufacturi ng Public utilities I I I I ~ Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 important role.Clearly,the decisions affecting federal activity in Alaska are influenced to only a minor extent by economic conditions within Alaska. The petroleum industry is also largely controlled by forces outside the Alaska economy;but because of its importance,it is given special and much more detailed treatment.Petroleum employment and output are projected in accordance with detailed petroleum development scenarios.On the basis of present information,Alaska's petroleum resources appear to be potentially so vast and so widespread that there are countless alternative ways in which these resources might be developed. In contrast to the industries influenced primarily by outside forces or policy decisions,the output of the other private sector industries (consisting of trade,finance,services,transportation, communication,public utilities,local-serving manufacturing,and proprietors)is produced to meet local demands and thus responds to changes in the level of economic activity in Alaska.It is clear that there has been a close link between personal income and output of these industries in the past,and this relationship has remained stable over time, The cause of this relationship is the fact that a major portion of the demand for output of these sectors originates in the household or consumer sector',The trade,finance (including real --~.~-~--.._--es£a£e)~..and--service ..rndus~friesare ....very closely .-Tin'Keoto ··f}le spending decisions of Alaska households.Thus,there is a clear causal mechanism producing an increase··in output in response to an increase in real personal income.Any action,public or private, which adds to personal income will induce an expansion in output. To reflect this,nonbasic private output in the model is generally made a function of Alaska real disposable personal income and real wealth. (? ./ 'j I ,.l --~--_.--..-~~-----Ana-l-ysesind~ie_ate·-tha_t--in--most ·instanGes-~~the-output--o£.~~these-~-~~ industries increases more than in proportion to the increase in personal income.That is,if personal income rises 1 percent,thel output of the typical support sector industry increases by somewhat . more than 1 percent,There are two separate factors which operate ;~st~~~dU;:a~:~i:hereSs:r~ti'ce:~~~~~i:th:~e ~:~~i:Sco:::;h~~a~e;;edt~~l expand relative to other industries.Consumers have been devoting "an increasing share of their total eXpenditures to the purchase of various kinds of services.It is not surprising to observe this same phenomenon in the Alaska economy. The second factor causing the relatively rapid rise in support sector output is more specific to the Alaska situation,As the Alaska economy expands,it becomes feasible to have more of the support sector output produced locally rather than imported from the 2-4 J :\ Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A8S.1 Lower 48.The trade,finance,and service industries in particular benefit from the general expansion in the size of the Alaska economy.The share of output produced locally tends to increase relative to the share supplied from the outside.As a result,the rate of growth in the output of these industries is greater than the rate of growth in total consumer expenditures or total personal income. The output of the construction industry is determined by a combination of internal and external factors.Part of construction activity is designed to supply the needs of the expanding Alaska economy.As in the support sector,this portion of construction output is made a function of real disposable personal income.An increase in personal income and the associated rise in general economic activity produce an increase in the demand for the construction of both residential and commercial structures.A second part of construction supplies the needs of state government capital spending.In addition to the construction required by the general expansion in economic activity,there is likely to be considerable construction activity involved in the building of pipelines,terminals,and other facilities required for petroleum production and other industrial development.This portion of construction output is exogenously determined in accordance with the relevant development scenario. Proceeding sequentially,after output has been determined in each of the major industrial sectors,the next step in the model is to calculate industry employment.A statistical relationship derived from the Alaska data is used in most industries to project industry employment as a function of industry output.This relationship can be interpreted as a demand-for-Iabor equation;it specifies the number of workers required to produce a given level of industry output.The supply of labor in Alaska is effectively brought into balance with the demand through the process of migration.When an expansion in economic activity raises the demand for labor,new workers migrate into the state to take advantage of the additional job opportunities.Past experience,most recently in connection with the construction of the trans-Alaska oil pipeline, indicates that the supply of labor adjusts quite quickly.with the supply of labor being so flexible,it is the demand for labor which deterines the actual levels of employment in most industries in the Alaska economy.Table 1 shows in detail the industry classifications currently in use in the model. There are,however,a few industries for which a different procedure is used to project industry employment.This occurs where there is no discernible systematic relationship between output and employment such as in petroleum and fish harvesting.It seems apparent,for example,that the number of persons who choose to engage in commercial fishing is determined primarily by factors such as culture,tradition,and personal preference,rather than by purely economic factors. 2-S Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A8S.1 J \ I I .J j .l IJ I 'i ...1 EMT9 EMCM EMPU EMF! EMDW EMDR EMT91 EMT9X EMDRNT EMDTOUR EMTNT EMTTOUR' EMMF EMML EMMP MANUFACTURING Endogenous Exogetl°us exogenous high wage exogenous low wage fish processing lumber pulp Variable Name TABLE 1.EMPLOYMENT VARIABLES USED IN MAP ECONOMIC MODEL COMMUNICATION MINING (including petroleum) CONSTRUCTION Endogenous Exogenous exogenous high wage (enclave) exogenous low wage FINANCE-INSURANCE-REAL ESTATE TRANSPORTATION Endogenous nontourism related tourism related Exogenous PUBLIC UTILITIES -TRADE---'._-.-.---._-..-------------.------EMD9------------ Wholesale Retail retail,nontourism related retail,tourism related SERVICES Non-Native Corp.-Related Services business services nonbusiness &nontourism- related services tourism-related services Native Corp.-Related Services EMSB EMS8NT EMS TOUR EMS91 EMNC EMS 9 2-6 :\ 'j Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 TABLE 1.(continued) FEDERAL GOVERNMENT Civilian Militarya .' STATE-LOCAL GOVERNMENT State Local AGRICULTURE-FORESTRY-FISHERY (and Unclassified) Fishing Agriculture Forestry and Unclassified PROPRIETORa Nonfish Harvesting Fish Harvesting TOTAL CIVILIAN TOTAL NON-AGRICULTURAL WAGE &SALARY TOTAL NON-AGRICULTURAL WAGE &SALARY PLUS MILITARY GRAND TOTAL Basic Government (State &Local) Support Infrastructure SPECIAL CATEGORIES i j FISH HARVESTING Proprietor fish harvesting Salaried fish harvesting TOURISM Transporation Trade Services EMPROFIS EMAFISH EMTTOUR EMDTOUR EMSTOUR EMFISH EMTOUR aThese are categories not covered in employment data of state Department of Labor. 2-7 Indstitute ?f Social! an Econom1c Research MAP Documentation ,,I December 1984,Model A8S.1 ) Economic activity in the state and local government sector is determined ultimately by government policies.Although economic conditions in Alaska certainly influence the decision process,the process itself is essentially political rather than economic in nature.Since the art of modeling is not nearly so advanced as to enable adequate simulation of the political decision process,the decisions are specified outside the model by a set of "fiscal rules."What is included in the model is a set of relationships that trace out the economic implications of the alternative political decisions.Indeed,one of the principal functions of the MAP model is to project the outcomes associated with alternative social choices.The relationships in the model are,therefore, designed so that they can be readily altered to reflect alternative policy choices at each step in the decision process. Following the determination of industry output and employment, the next major element in the model is the calculation of industry wage rates.Average wages in each industry are made a function of average earnings in the United States,the cost of living in Alaska, and the "tightness"of the Alaska labor market.Since the cost of living in Alaska is linked to u.S.prices,the net effect is that wage rates in Alaska are very closely related to wages and prices in the united States as a whole.It would be impossible for it to be otherwise so long as Alaska is open to migration to and from the Lower 48.If wages in Alaska became excessively high relative to --.-...-....-.-the--.restof the united S.tat.e.s_,_large numbers of workers would migrate into the state,thus tending to force wages down. Conversely,if wages in Alaska .were too low,there would be a shortage of labor,tending to force wages up.Thus,over the long run,Alaska wages have to maintain some sort of reasonable relationship with wages in the united States as a whole. The final piece of industry information generated by the model is total wage and salary payments.Total earnings in each industry ,are·compute·if ·oy·-·mulfiplying the Tifdustfywagerate·tiffiesindlisn·y ..emp 10yment"":-Tot'eview;t:1:ftsmake·sfourpiecesofinformationthat '.~-­ are provided on an annual basis for each industry in the model: (1)real output,(2)employment,(3)wage rates,and (4)wage and salary payments. After wages and salaries are calculated for each industry,the figures are combined to estimate total wage earnings in the Alaska economy as a whole.This forms the basis for estimating the personal income 'a.va.ilable to Alaska residents.Although wages and salaries are by far the largest single component,personal income also includes interest,dividends,rental income,proprietors' income,and miscellaneous other labor income.For the united States,these nonwage components make up about a third of total personal income.The elements of personal income are shown in Table 2.In Alaska,the nonwage components are less significant and make up less than 20 percent of personal income,although they are growing. 2-8 ·1 I ,,.~, Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A8S.1 TABLE 2.PERSONAL INCOME VARIABLES USED IN MAP ECONOMIC MODEL Variable Name Plus: Wage and salary disbursements Other labor income 'j Proprietors'income fishery proprietor income nonfishery proprietor income WS98 PIOLI PIPRO PIPROF PIPR01 Equals:Total labor and proprietor income by place of work (total earnings) Minus:Personal contributions to Social Security Equals:Net labor and proprietors income by place of work (net earnings) PITE PISSC PINE Plus:Residence adjustment PlRADJ Equals:Net labor and proprietors'income by place of residence (net earnings)PINERADJ Plus:Dividends,interest,and rent Transfers non-Permanent Fund dividend Permanent Fund dividend PITRAN1 EXTRNS PIDIR PITRAN Equals:Personal income by place of residence PI net of enclave employee (EMCNXl)income PI3 plus residence adjustment PI8 Minus:Federal income-related taxes RTPIF State income-related taxes RTISCP Local income-related taxes DPIRES Equals:Disposable personal income DPI plus residence adjustment DPI8 2-9 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984.Model A8S.1 Disposable personal income is derived from the estimate of personal income--the difference between the two measures being personal tax and nontax payments.Personal taxes in the United states amount to about 15 percent of personal income.This ratio is somewhat higher for Alaska because of the progressive nature of the federal income tax structure;that is.individuals with large incomes pay higher tax rates than individuals with low incomes. Because of the high cost of living in Alaska.the typical Alaska taxpayer receives a higher income than the U.s.average.This means that the typical Alaska taxpayer also pays a higher-than-average effective tax rate. The final element in the personal income component of the MAP economic model is an adjustment for the effects of inflation. Disposable personal income measured in current dollars is deflated by the Alaska relative price index to produce an estimate of real disposable personal income in terms of constant 1967 prices.since virtually all consumer goods are imported from the Lower 48 and since wage rates in Alaska are closely tied to wages in the United Stlates.relative pd~ces itl Alaska are proj ected as a f'unc tion of the U.s.consumer price index.The empirical studies used to derive this relationship indicate that.over the long run.prices in Alaska may be expected to increase somewhat less rapidly than prices in the United states.This is consistent with the expectation that as the Alaska economy expands.there will be a certain amount of import substitution and economies of scale that will tend to lower costs in...some AlasKa Tnous£ries:---------..---------.----..---..._-_...-.._.-_.. Real disposable personal income provides a measure of the effective purchasing power of Alaska consumers after taking into account tax payments and after making allowance for the effects of inflation.This is.of course.the income measure that was used previously in determining the demand for the output of the support sector industries.At this point.the circle is closed:personal .income··.depends·····on ·····industryoutput·...and .industry output depends on··· 2.3.state Economic Module Detail ,I Economic activity is measured by industry:employment (EM**).wages and rate (WR**).and gross product (xx**). activity in each industry differ. four variables in each salaries (WS**).··the wage The equations describing Each industry is identified bya suffix.Coefficients for the stochastic equations are identified by a prefix C followed by a number and a suffix letter.In this section.the equations used for each industry are described. 2-10 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A8S.1 Finance,Insurance,Real Estate (**FI) Public utilities (**PU) Communications (**CM) These three industries are modeled in a similar manner which reflects the underlying structure of all the nonbasic support sector industries in the model.In each,the level of output of the industry,measured as real gross product (xx**),is determined by available real disposable personal income.Different com1:?inations of current and lagged values of both regular disposable personal income (R.DPI8N)and the disposable personal income g~nerated directly by premium wage rate enclave construction projects (such as construction of the Alyeska pipeline)(R.DPI8X)as well as the average level of wealth in the economy (WEALTH)work best to explain output in each case. Average annual employment (EM**)in each case is determined by the output of the industry.This equation represents the production function.A pipeline dummy (PIPE)improves the fit of the equation for the public utilities industry. The real annual average wage rate (WR**/PDRPI)for each industry (PDRPI is an Alaskan price index)is a function of both national and regional economic factors..The change in the r~al average U.S.wage rate (WEUS/PDUSCPI)is the major determinant of local wage rates because of the direct link between the Alaska and national labor markets.When the local demand for labor is growing rapidly,there may be upward pressure on wage rates because of temporary supply constraints or because of a temporary increase in premium wage rate employment opportunities.The ratio of premium wage construction employment to total employment (EMCNRT)measures this local labor market tightness.Premium wage construction employment is enclave construction employment at high wages.The oil pipeline is an example of a project which generated premium wage construction employment.A dummy variable (D.80DEC6)reflects the fact that wage rates have proved to be "sticky"in the downward direction since 1980 in the presence of a declining differential between Alaskan and lower 48 price levels. 2-11 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A8S.1 Finance-Insurance-Real Estate (**FI) 389:XXFI =C80A+C80C*D71.73+C80B*WEALTH(-1)*POP(-1) 390:LOG(EMFI)=C81A+C81B*LOG(XXFI) 391:LOG (WRFI/PDRPI)=C82A+C82F*D.80DEC6+C82B*LOG(WEUSI PDUSCPI)+C82~*LOG(1+EMCNRT)+C82C*LOG(1+EMCNRT(-1» 392:WSFI ==EMFI*WRFI/1000. Public Utilities (**PU) 372:XXPU =C72A+C72B*R.DPI8N(-1)+C72C*R.DPI8X+ C72D*R.DPI8N(-2) 373:LOG(EMPU)=C73A+C73C*PIPE(-1)+C73B*LOG(XXPU) 374:LOG (WRPU/PDRPI)=C74A+C74F*D.80DEC6+C74B*LOG(WEUSI PDUSCPI)+C74C*LOG(1+EMCNRT(-2»+C74D*LOG(1+EMCNRT(-1» 37S:WSPU ==EMPU*WRPU/1000. Communications (**CM) 368:XXCM =C68A+C68B*R.DPI8N(-,1)+C68C*D61.74+C68D* WEALTH (-1)*POP(-1) 370:LOG(WRCM/PDRPI)=C70A+C70F*D.80DEC6+C70B*LOG(WEUSI PDUSCPI)+C70C*LOG(1+EMCNRT(-2»+C70D*LOG(1+EMCNRT(-1» 371:WSCM ==EMCM*WRCM/1000. 2-12 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 Mining (Including Petroleum)(**P9) Mining industry employment (EMP9),which consists primarily of petroleum exploration and development,is determined outside the model as part of a growth "scenario."output (XXP9)is calculated from employment.The wage rate and total wages and salaries are calculated in a manner similar to all other industries. 347:LOG(XXP9)=C52A+C52B*LOG(EMP9) 348:LOG(WRP9/PDRPI)=C53A+C53F*D.80DEC6+C53D*D61.76+C53B* LOG(WEUS/PDUSCPI)+C53C*LOG(1+EMCNRT) 349:WSP9 ==EMP9*WRP9/1000 Agriculture.Forestry.Fisheries.Unclassified (**A9) Wage and salary employment in this sector (EMA9)consists of that small portion of the fish harvesting industry employing workers covered by unemployment insurance programs (EMAFISH),agricultural workers (EM,AGRI),and unclassified workers plus foresters (EMAUN). The part of fish harvesting employment is a constant proportion of the total (EMFISH).All of agricultural employment (determined in a "scenario")is within this sector.Unclassified and forestry employment is exogenous and not related to the development scenario. Output and wages and salaries are determined in the same way as in the mining industry.The wage rate is set equal to the federal civilian wage rate because the small size of this industry has precluded the development of a smooth and representative historical data series on the wage rate for regression purposes.Output in this sector consists of the gross product of all fish harvesting, not only that of those workers who work for a wage. 422:EMA9 =EMAFISH+EMAGRI+EMAUN 423:XXA9 =C90A+C90B*(EMA9+EMPROFIS) 424:WRA9 =WRGC 425:WSA9 ==EMA9*WRA9/1000. 2-13 2-14 Transportation (**T9) 362:EMTTOUR =PTOURT*EMTOUR 367:WST9 ==EMT9*WRT9/1000. ,J .J I i 1 ! .J I ] l 1 ] I ! \ 1 ! j l for the whole industry which is Total wages and salaries is also 366:.···L(J<:r<WRT91PDRPI )...;;:··C66A+C66F*O:SOOEC6+C660*D-6T:T6+G6-6B* IiOGtWEUSi-PDUSCPI-)-+C66C*J:iO(;(-];+EI·1eNRT}+G66-E*-~~---..---".....- LOG(l+EMGNRT(-l» 36S:XXT9 =XXTNT*(EMT9/EMTNT) 363:EMT91 =EMTNT+EMTTOUR 364:EMT9 =EMT91+EMT9X 360:XXTNT =C64A+C64B*R.DPISX+C64D*R.DPISX*R.DPISX(-1)+ C64C*R.DPISN+C64E*D71.73 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 19S4,Model ASS.1 361:LOG(EMTNT)=C6SA+C6SB*LOG(XXTNT) Total industry gross product (XXT9)is the ratio of total to support employment multiplied by support gross product. Transportation industry employment has three components:a support component (EMTNT)and two basic sector components--tourist- related employment (EMTTOUR)and large pipeline employment (EMT9X). Gross product in the support component of the industry (XXTNT)is determined by real disposable personal income (R.DPISN and R.DPISX). This,in turn,determines support employment in transportation. Tourist-related employment is a constant portion of total tourist-related employment in the economy (ENTOUR).Large pipeline activity is determined outside the model as part of the growth "scenario." There is one wage rate calculated in the usual way. ..calctl,lated in tlle usual way. Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 Manufacturing (**M9) Manufacturing employment consists of a small component sensitive to local demand (EMMO)as well as a basic sector component (EMMX), itself consisting of two elements--one which commands a premium wage rate (EMMXl)and another with the same wage as the support component (EMMX2).As in the mining industry,exogenous output is a function of employment.Locally sensitive output (XXMO)is determined by disposable income (R.DPI8N).Basic sector employment is determined outside the model as part of the growth "scenario." The manufacturing industry wage rate (WRM9)consists of two separate wage rates.One is for locally sensitive manufacturing and all the current basic manufacturing activity consisting primarily of fish processing,pulp and paper,and timber (WRM91).The other is a premium wage (WRMXl)associated with certain prospective manufacturing activities (EMMXl)such as a petrochemical plant or aluminum smelter.The premium wage is a simple multiple (PADJ)of the regular wage.Wages and salaries in total and for premium wage employment are calculated in the usual way. 350:XXMO =C60A+C60B*R.DPI8N+C60C*D61.77 351:LOG (EMMO)=C109A+CI09B*LOG(XXMO) 352:LOG (XXMX2)=C61A+C61B*LOG(EMMX2) 353:XXM9 ==XXMX1+XXMX2+XXMO 354:EMM9 =EMMO+EMMXl+EMMX2 355:LOG (WRM91/PDRPI)=C62A+C62F*D.80DEC6+C62B*LOG(WEUSI PDUSCPI)+C62C*LOG(1+EMCNRT)+C62D*LOG(1+EMCNRT(-1» 356:WRMXl ==WRM91*PADJ 357:WSM9 ==(EMMO+EMMX2)*WRM91/1000+EMMXl*WRMX1/1000 358:WSMX1 ==EMMXl*WRMXl/1000 359:WRM9 ==WSM9/EMM9*1000 2-15 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 Trade (**D9) Employment in wholesale (EMDW)and retail (EMDR)trade are handled as separate industries.In addition,retail trade contains a tourist-related component (EMDTOUR). output in wholesale (XXDW)and retail trade (net of tourist- related employment)(XXDRNT)is determined as functions of real disposable personal income (R.DPI8Nand R.DPI8X)and average wealth (WEALTH).Employment,in turn,is a function of output.Tourist- related employment in trade is a constant proportion of total tourist employment (EMTOUR),which is added to other retail employment to get total retail trade employment.Wage rates and wages and salaries are calculated in the usual way.Total output (XXD9)includes a tourist-related component calculated at the same ratio to employment as the rest of the industry. 376:~DW =C71A+C71B*R.DPI8N+C71C*R.DPI8X+C71D*R.DPI8X(-1)* R.DPI8X+C71E*WEALTH(-1)*POP(-1) 377:XXDRNT =C76A+C76B*R.DPI8N+C76C*R.DPI8X+C76D* R.DPI8N(-1)+C76E*R.DPI8X(-1) 378:LOG (EMDW)=C77A+C77B*LOG(XXDW) 379:LOG(EMDRNT)::·C75A+c7sB*i:OG(xxDRN'f5· 380:EMDR =EMDRNT+EMDTOUR 381:LOG (WRDW/PDRPI)=C78A+C78F*D.80DEC6+C78B*LOG(WEUSI PDUSCPI)+C78C*LOG(1+EMCNRT)+C78D*LOG(1+EMCNRT(-1»+ C78E*LOG(1+EMCNRT(-2» -.382:-r;OG(WRDR/PDRPI)=--C79A+C79F*D;80DEC6+C19B*LOG{WEUSI· ------PDUSep-I-)+(+G-7-9D~*LGG(-:l+EMGNR-'.r-(--J.-)-)-+C-7-9E*-------- LOG(1+EMCNRT(-2» 383:EMDTOUR =PTOURD*EMTOUR 384:EMD9 =EMDRNT+EMDW+EMDTOUR 385:WSD9 ==(EMDRNT+EMDTOUR)*WRDR/1000+EMDW*WRDW/IOOO 386:WRD9 =WSD9/EMD9*1000 387:XXD9 =(XXDW+XXDRNT)/(EMDW+EMDRNT)*EMD9 388:XXDR =XXD9-XXDW 2-16 ,-I J I I j I I 1 I 1 I 1 .~ \ r I ( j i IU II\..J Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A8S.1 Services (**S9) services employment consists of four components:support sector (EMS8NT),tourism (EMTOUR),business services (EMSB),and Native corporations (not explicit).output of support sector services (XXS8NT)and business-related services (XXSB)is determined by functions of disposable personal income (R.OPI8N and R.OPI8X)and average wealth (WEALTH).Employment in each of these sectors is a function of output. Tourism-related employment (EMSTOUR)is a constant portion of total t~urist employment (EMTOUR).Separate wage rates are calculated for business services (WRSB)and other services net of business services (WRSNB). Native corporation-related employment equals Native corporation wages and salaries (NCWS)divided by the average wage rate for the whole industry (WRS9). Industry wages and salaries are calculated in the usual way. Total output is the same ratio to total employment as is output in the support and business service components of the industry. 393:XXS8NT =C84A+C84B*R.OPI8N+C84C*R.OPI8X(-1)+C840* WEALTH(-l)*POP(-l) 394:XXSB =C83A+(+C83C)*R.OPI8X+C830*R.DPI8X(-1)+C83E* WEALTH(-l)*POP(-l) 39S:LOG(EMS8NT)=C8SA+C8SB*LOG(XXS8NT) 396:LOG(EMSB)=C87A+C87B*LOG(XXSB) 397:LOG (WRSNB/PORPI)=C86A+C86F*O.800EC6+C86B*LOG(WEUSI PDUSCPI)+C86C*LOG(1+EMCNRT)+C860*LOG(1+EMCNRT(-1))+ C86E*LOG(1+EMCNRT(-2)) 398:LOG (WRSB/PORPI)=C88A+C88F*O.800EC6+C88E*061.70+C88B* LOG(WEUS/PDUSCPI)+C88C*LOG(1+EMCNRT)+C880* LOG(1+EMCNRT(-1))+C88G*LOG(1+EMCNRT(-2)) 399:EMSTOUR =PTOURS*EMTOUR 400:EMS91 =EMSB+EMS8NT+EMSTOUR 401:WSS91 ==(EMS8NT+EMSTOUR)*WRSNB/1000+EMSB*WRSB/1000 2-17 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 402:WSS9 ==WSS91+NCWS 403:EMS9 =EMS91+NCWS/(WRS9*1000) 404:WRS9 =WSS91/EMS91*1000 405:XXS9 =(XXS8NT+XXSB)/(EMS8NT+EMSB)*EMS9 Federal Government (**GF) Federal government employment (EMGF)is the sum of civilian (EMGC)and military (EMGM)employment,both of which are determined in the growth "scenario.tt Output (XXGF)is a function of employment.A wage rate for civilian employment is calculated (which is not responsive to local market conditions),and the military wage rate is a fixed proportion of the civilian wage (PCIVPY).Nominal wages and salaries are calculated as a function of nomInal wage'rate growEh iIi the "UIiited states,reflecting the relative insensitivity of federal wage rates to local conditions. 406:EMGF =EMGM+EMGC 407:LOG(XXGF)=C101A+C101B*LOG(EMGF) 408:LOG (WRGC)=C89A+LOG(WEUS) 409:WRGM =WRGC*PCIVPY 410:WSGC =WRGC*EMGC/1000 411:WSGM =WRGM*EMGM/1000 --------•."- 413:WRGF =WSGF/EMGF*1000 2-18 (,1 \. ~j I ,".1 J i 1 j .j .J l ) l I 01 ·1 j j l ( I I j I Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 19S4,Model AS5.1 Construction (**CN) Employment in the construction industry is in four categories: two endogenous cateogries (EMCNl)--support and government expenditure related--and two types of basic employment (EMCNX). Support sector output (XXCNS)is a function of disposable personal income (R.DPISN and R.DPISX).To this is added the value of capital expenditures made by state government (XXVACAP)to get total endogenous output (XXCNl).Exogenous output is the residual (XXCNX). Endogenous employment (EMCN1)is a function of this output. Basic employment consists of normal wage basic employment (EMCNX2)which receives the same wage as support sector and government-related construction employment (WRCNNP)and premium wage construction employment (EMCNX1)which is defined as remote site, specialized employment commanding a high annual wage (WRCNP).This wage is a multiple of the regular wage (PIPADJ).Wages and salaries for the industry are calculated in the usual way. Premium wage employment interacts with several other model components.First,it directly affects wage rates and the price level in most other industries through the variable EMCNRT,which is a measure of excess demand in the labor market.Second,it forms the basis for the special component of disposable personal income, R.DPISX,which is a variable in some of the equations explaining support sector output. 334:EMCNRT =IF EMCNX1/4 LT EMCN1(-1)THEN 0 ELSE EMCNX1/(EM9S-EMCNX1) 335:XXCNS =C54A+C54B*R.DPISN+C54D*D65+C54E*D73+C54F* R.DPISX(-1)+C54G*R.DPISX 336:XXCN1 =XXCNS+XXVACAP 337:LOG(EMCN1)=CS6A+CS6B*LOG(XXCN1)+CS6C*D61.67 33S:EMCNX =EMCNX1+EMCNX2 !i 339:EMCN =EMCNl+EMCNX 340:XXCN =EMCN/EMCN1*XXCNI II 341:XXCNX ==XXCN-XXVACAP-XXCNSL,,) 2-19 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation .December 1984,Model A85.1 342:LOG (WRCNNP/PORPI)=C59A+C59F*D.80DEC6+C59B*LOG(WEUSI PDUSCPI)+C59C*LOG(1+EMCNRT)+C59D*LOG(1+EMCNRT(-1»+ C59E*LOG(1+EMCNRT(-2» 343:WRCNP =WRCNNP*PIPADJ 344:WSCN =(EMCN1+EMCNX2)*WRCNNP/1000+EMCNX1*WRCNP/1000 345:WRCN =WSCN/EMCN*1000 346:WSCNP =EMCNX1*WRCNP/1000 state and Local Government (**GA) Government expenditures on wages and salaries at the state (WSGS)and local (WSGL)levels are determined by the operating budgets of state and local government,respectively.Wage rates are _calculated for'state government (WRGS)and local government (WRGL) in the usual way with the added constraint that neither may fall in nominal dollars.Employment is calculated as total wages and salaries divided by the wage rate for state (EMGS)and local government (EMGL).Output in the combined state and local government sector (XXGA)is a function of combined employment (EMGA). 414:LOG(WRGS/PORPI)=IF C92A+C92F*D.80DEC6+C92B*LOG(WEUSI PDUSCPI)+C92C*061.73+C920*D74.75 LT LOG(WRGS(-1-1 PORPI(-l»THEN LOG (WRGS (-l)IPORPI(-l))ELSEC92A+C92F* D.80DEC6+C92B*LOG(WEUS/POUSCPI)+C92C*D61.73+C92D*D74.7 5 415:EMGS =WSGS/WRGS*1000 416:LOG (WRGL/PORPI)=IF C102A+C102F*O.80DEC6+C1020*D61.69+ -CIO-2C*I~OGll+EMCNRT)+Cl02B*LOG{WEUSIPDUSCPI-Y-LT-LOG(WRGL·- ----------t:::ynpORP r-(-l-)-)--THEN-I:;OGtWRGI;(-l-)-I-PDRPI-(-~1-H-E-hSE-e-10-2-A+---- C102F*D.80DEC6+C102D*D61.69+C102C*LOG(1+EMCNRT)+C102B* LOG(WEUS/POUSCPI) 417:EMGL =WSGL/WRGL*1000 418:EMGA =EMGS+EMGL 419:WSGA·::::WSGS+WSGL 420:WRGA =WSGA/EMGA*1000 421:LOG(XXGA)=C104A+C104B*LOG(EMGA) 2-20 I J J j j J I ] j -1 1 1 I .] I j j l j I II j I I Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 Tourism The number of tourists (TOURIST)is determined in the growth "scenario."Total employment in tourism (EMTOUR),consisting of portions of the trade,services,and transportation industries, grows as a function of the number of tourists. 455:LOG (EMTOUR)=PTOURB+PTOURE*LOG(TOURIST) Fish Harvesting Employment in fish harvesting (EMFISH)is determined in the growth "scenario."It is allocated by a proportion (PFISH1)into a wage and salary component (EMAFISH)and a proprietor component which consists of all fishermen who do not work for a wage (EMPROFIS). Wages and salaries paid to those fishermen who earn a wage is calculated as part of the Agricultural-Forestry-Fishery-Unclassified (**A9)industry.Other fishermen earn proprietor income (PIPROF), which is constant in real per fisherman terms at the present level. 301:PIPROF =EMPROFIS*(4.523*(PDRPI/340» 434:EMPROFIS =PFISH1*EMFISH 435:EMAFISH =(1-PFISH1)*EMFISH 2-21 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A8S.1 Proprietor Activity Proprietor activity (all non-wage and -salary activity)consists of fish harvesting and all other proprietor activity.Fish harvesting employment (EMPROFIS)and income (PIPROF)are determined by total fish harvesting activity. other employment (EMPR01)is a function of all wages and salary employment (EM98).Personal income associated with this employment (PIPR01)grows with the level of employment in nonfish processing proprietor activity. Total proprietor employment (EMPRO)and income (PIPRO)are each the sum of their component parts. 300:PIPR01*100/PDRPI =C4SA+C4SB*EMPR01+C4SC*D61.66+C45D*D79 302:PIPRO ==PIPR01+PIPROF 433:LOG (EMPR01)=C100A+C100C*D61.66+C100B*LOG(EM98) 436:EMPRO =EMPR01+EMPROFIS Total wage and salary employment (EM98)is defined as the sum of civilian employment covered by unemployment insurance in all industries (EM97)plus military employment (EMGM).Total employment (EM99)includes,in addition to employment covered by unemployment insurance and the military,proprietor employment (EMPRO).Total civilian employment (EM96)is net of military employment. No'l:.eEhatt.ourism-employrnenE(EMTOURY-'isallsubsumed within-the' ·-tran-slf6rta:t-ton,--trade-,-and-service--sec-i;oFsT--A-lso-,-f-ish--har-ves.ting.-- employment (EMFISH)is _divided into wage and salary and proprietor components. 427:EM98 =EMP9+EMCN+EMM9+EMT9+EMCM+EMPU+EMD9+EMFI+ EMS 9+EMGF+EMGA+EMA9 428:EM97 ==EM98.;..EMGM 437:EM99 '==EM98+EMPRO 438:EM96 =EM99-EMGM 2-22 j J I I j I J j I ) j I I..iJ II I....J Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A8S.1 Total Output Total output (XX98)includes all industries except nonfish harvesting-related proprietor activity. 426:XX98 =XXP9+XXCN+XXM9+XXT9+XXCM+XXPU+XXD9+XXFI+ XXS9 +XXGF+XXGA+XXA9 Total Wages and Salaries Total wages and salaries (WS98)is the sum of the wages and salaries paid in all industries and is thus net of proprietor income.Nonagricultural wage and salary employment (WS97)excludes military wages and salaries.The average wage rate for total (WR98) and nonagricultural (WR97)wages and salaries are calculated. 429:WS98 =(WRP9*EMP9+WRCN*EMCN+WRM9*EMM9+WRT9*EMT9+WRCM* EMCM+WRPU*EMPU+WRD9*EMD9+WRFI*EMFI+WRS9*EMS9+WRGF* EMGF+WRGA*EMGA+WRA9*EMA9)11000. 430:WS97 =WS98-WSGM 431:WR98 =WS98*1000/EM98 432:WR97 ==WS97*1000/EM97 2-23 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 Personal Income Personal income by place of residence (PI)is built up from wages and salaries.It includes,in addition to wages and salaries (WS98),other labor income (PIOLI);proprietor income (PIPRO); dividends,interest,and rents (PIDIR);and transfers (PITRAN);it is net of both social security contributions (PISSC)and a residency adjustment (PlRADJ).Other labor income is a function of wages and salaries,as are social security contributions.Dividends,interest, and rents are a function of disposable income.Transfers consist of an exogenous state government component .(EXTRNS)and all others (PITRAN1).Endogenous transfers grow with the growth in the population .over65 (POPGER). Personal:income prior to netting out the residence adjustment is calculated (PI8).The residency adjustment is a function of employment. 295:PIDIR =C51A+C51B*(DPI+DPI(-1)+DPI(-2)+DPI(-3)+DPI(-4» 296:PITRAN1 =IF YR LE 1982 THEN PITRAN6 ELSE PITRAN1(-1)/POPGER(-1)*(1+GRUSCPI)*POPGER 297:PITRAN/PDRPI =IF YR GE 1984 THEN PITRAN1/PDRPI+EXTRNSI PDRPI ELSE (IF YR EQ 1983 OR YR EQ 1982 THEN PITRANll PDRPI+EXTRNSPI/PDRPI ELSE C34A+C34B*POP+C34C*D61.72+ EX'r1iNS/Pr5RI?I).__. 298:PIOLI =C44A+C44D*D61.75+C44B*(WS98-WSCNP)+C44C*WSCNP(-1) 299:PISSC =CI06A+C106B*(WS98-WSCNP) 303:PI8 =WS98+PIOLI+PIPRO-PISSC+PIDIR+PITRAN 309:··PlRADJ*·lOOIPDRPI=CI03A+CI03B*EMCNX1+CI03e*EM97 310:PI =PI8-PlRADJ ] 1 I ] J ] J ] 'I J .1 I ,j I 'J 1 j .1 r [] I I lJ Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model AaS.1 Components of Real Disposable Personal Income Disposable personal income (DPI)is personal income net of federal (RTPIF),state (RTISCP),and local (DPIRES)income-related taxes paid by Alaskan residents.Disposable personal income before the residency adjustment is also calculated (DPIa).This definition of disposable income is used to construct two real disposable income or "purchasing power"measures.One (R.DPIaX)is the real disposable personal income associated with premium wage construction employment.This is set to zero in simulation.The other (R~DPIaN) includes all other real disposable personal income as well as the income equivalent of state subsidies (EXSUB2*EXSUBS)but nets out the excess proportion of Permanent Fund dividends which are saved (EXPF2*EXTRNS). 317:DPI =PI-RTPIF-RTISCP-DPIRES+RTISXX 31a:DPIa =DPI+PIRADJ 321:R.DPI8N =(DPIa+EXSUB2*EXSUBS-EXPF2*EXTRNS)* 100/PDRPI-R.DPIaX 322:R.DPIaX =0 Price Indexes There are three price indexes used in the model.The most important,PDRPI,is an index for deflating consumer prices to the 1967 U.S.level.At each point in time,this index is equal to the U.S.consumer price index,PDUSCPI,multiplied by the ratio of prices in Anchorage and the united States as measured by the Bureau of Labor statistics moderate-family budget,PDRATIO.This ratio is a negative function of the growth in the size of the support sector of the economy as reflected by employment in trade,finance,and services as well as transportation,communication,and public utilities,EMSP.It is a positive function of tightness in the local labor market as reflected in the variable EMCNRT,which is the proportion of total employment accounted for by high wage,exogenous construction. A price deflator for state government operating expenditures, PDEXOPS,is a weighted average of government wage rates,WRGA,and the nonpersonnel expenditure price level using PDRPI as a proxy.A price deflator for capital expenditures is based upon the wage rate in construction (nonpipeline),WRCNNP. Many variables are deflated to a 1984 Alaska base using the 19a4 level of PDRPI.All such variables have the prefix DF. 2-25 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A8S.1 4:PDRATIO =IF YR LE 1983 THEN PDRATI06 ELSE (IF RTIS(-2)- RTIS(-l)NE 0 AND RTIS(-2)EQ 0 AND G.EMSP GT 0 THEN PDRATIO(-1)+C67A*(1+G.EMSP**O.5)+C67B*(EMCNRT/(EM98(-1)I (EM98-EMCNX1»)-C67C+C67D*(1+G.EMSP**O.5)*D68.71 ELSE (IF RTIS(-1)-RTIS(-1)NE 0 AND RTIS(-2)EQ 0 THEN PDRATIO(-1)+ C67A+C67B*(EMCNRT/(EM98(-1)/(EM98-EMCNX1»)-C67C-C67D* D68.71 ELSE (IF G.EMSP LE 0 THEN PDRATIO(-1)+C67A+ C67B*(EMCNRT/(EM98(-1)/(EM98-EMCNX1»)+C67D*D68.71 ELSE PDRATIO(-1)+C67A*(l+G.EMSP**O.5)+C67B*(EMCNRT/(EM98(-1)1 (EM98-EMCNX1»)+C67D*(1+G.EMSP**O.5)*D68.71») 5:PDRPI =PDRATIO*PDUSCPI 6:PDEXOPS =WSGSFY(-1)/EXOPS(-1)*(WRGA*100/PWRBASE)+ (EXOPS(-1)-WSGSFY(-1»/EXOPS(-1)*PDRPI 7:PDCON =C107A+C107B*WRCNNP National Variables Real per capita disposable personal income in the United States (PR.DPIUS),the USCPI (PDUSCPI),and the average weekly wage in the United States (WEUS)each grow at exogenous rates.These are as ~~1lows:~~D~~Y,GRUSCPI,and GRRWEUS. 1:PR.DPIUS =IF YR LE 1983 THEN PR.DPIU6 ELSE PR~DPIUS(-1)*(1+GRDIRPU) 2:PDUSCPI::::IF YR LE 1983 THENPDUSCPI6 ELSE PDUSCPI(-1)*(1+GRUSCPI) 3:WEUS =IF YR LE 1983 THEN WEUS6 ELSE -----WEUS(-lJ*C1+GRUSCPI+GRRWEUS)-------..------------- 2-26 1 ) 1 I ) I ) ) j l J I ! J ), I I 1 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984.Model A85.1 3.Description of the Fiscal Module of the MAP Economic Model There are four categories of state government revenues. Petroleum-related revenues are exogenously provided from information on production,wellhead price,and other characteristics.Endogenous revenues are functionally related directly to the level of economic activity in the economy.Federal transfers are a function of the price level,and fund earnings are determined by the balances in the general and Permanent Funds. Total state government operating expenditures.operating expenditures ~program,and capital expenditures can be determined by a variety of rules specified by the model user.These include the choice of the spending limit.historical relationships,simple growth rates,or relating spending to specific variables like population or the size of the general fund balance. Local government revenues consist of state-local federal-local transfers,and endogenously generated Expenditures are determined by income and population. transfers. revenues. I \U Government expenditures affect the private economy primarily through wage and salary payments and purchases of capital.In addition.government personal income taxes and transfers determine what proportion of income is retained by individuals as disposable personal income. Data sources for the fiscal model are primarily the Executive Budget and Annual Financial Report.of the Department of Administration,Revenue Sources of the Department of Revenue,and the various state and local government fiscal summaries of the U.S. Department of Commerce.Bureau of the Census. State fiscal activity can be analyzed in terms of revenues and expenditures moving through the various state funds.The general structure of these accounts are shown in Tables 3 and 4.The most important of these funds are the general fund and the Permanent Fund,although there are a number of smaller funds which affect the level of economic activity stimulated by government spending.These include the Enterprise Funds.Capital Projects Funds.Special Revenue Funds.and Loan Funds. 3-1 STATE REVENUESTABLE3. GENERAL FUND INVESTMENT EARNINGS General Fund Earnings Permanent Fund Earnings Transferred to General Fund Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A8S.1 RSIN RSIG RSIPGF .l 1 i J *Net out this item before calculation of General Fund revenues. STATE ANCSA PAYMENTS*(SANCSA) Federal Grants-in-Aid to General Fund RSFDN Miscellaneous Restricted General Fund Revenues RMISRES l ,1. 1 I ! I I l I l , 1 ".! ! RP9SGF RSENGF RPBSGF RPENGF RPRYGF RSFDNPXG RPTS RPPS RTCSPX RP9X RTCIS RTSS RTOTS RTCS1 RTIS RTas RTMF RTAS RTVS ENDOGENOUS REVENUES Nonpetroleum Taxes corporate income tax personal income tax b'.ismessTicens-e-t.ax - motor fuel tax alcohol tax ad valorem tax cigarette tax (net of special fund allocation) school tax miscellaneous ..'Other'" fees-and-l-icenses----'--"'--'---ROF-'rS-------- ferry receipts ROFERS miscellaneous RMIS PETROLEUM REVENUES Taxes severance taxes property taxes corporate income taxes unclassified petroleum Nontaxes bonuses rents ,royalties federal shared royalties GENERAL FUND UNRESTRICTED REVENUES [Dept.of Revenue]RSGFBM Add:GENERAL FUND RESTRICTED REVENUES [Dept.of RevenueJ RSGFRS Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A8S.1 TABLE 3 (continued) Equals:TOTAL GENERAL FUND REVENUES [Dept.of Revenue] (Restricted +Unrestricted) Add:INTERAGENCY RECEIPTS Equals:TOTAL GENERAL FUND REVENUES [Dept.of Administration] PERMANENT FUND RSGF EXINREC RSGF.AFR GROSS REVENUES RESOURCE REVENUES GENERAL FUND CONTRIBUTIONS GROSS EARNINGS Minus:General Fund Transfers to General Fund from General Fund RP7SPF EXPFCONX RSIP EXPFCON9 (RSIPGF) (EXPFCONX) Equals:NET PERMANENT FUND REVENUES (before dividend)EXPFCON1 [ RETAINED EARNINGS RESOURCE REVENUES DIVIDENDS COMBINED FUNDS PETROLEUM Severance taxes Property tax Corporate income tax Unclassified taxes Bonuses Rents Royalties Federal shared royalties FUND EARNINGS FEDERAL TRANSFERS ENDOGENOUS TOTAL REVENUES MISCELLANEOUS FUNDS ENTERPRISE FUND REVENUES RSIPPF RP7SGF EXTRNS RPTS RPPS RTCSPX RP9X RPBS RPEN RPRY RSFDNPX RP9S RSI99 RSFDN RSEN R99S RSIAS SPECIAL FUND REVENUES (not including Permanent Fund) 3-3 RSFS Institute of Social j and Economic Research '. MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A8S.1 -1 APPROPRIATIONS .APGF j -) I .1 '....,)").1, ,I J ) 1 I ( 'I -l 'j I' EXGF EXINREC RSFDN RMISRES EXDSS EXSPCAP EXPFCONX EXTRNSX EXGF.AFR APGFOPS APGFCAP EXGFOPS EXGFCAP EXSUBS APPFCONX EXSPCAP EXDSS _EXG~~AP:J, EXGFCOT EXSUBS RLTMCAP noncapital subsidy local capital grants Operations (net of debt service) Nonoperations Operations (net of debt service) Nonoperations sUbsidy Special Permanent Fund contributions Special Capital Debt Service Federal Grants-in-Aid to General Fund Miscellaneous Restricted General Fund Revenues Interagency Receipts Other TABLE 4.STATE EXPENDITURES Under Expenditure Limit EXLIM Debt Service Special Capital Appropriations Special Permanent Fund Contributions Permanent Fund Distribution Augmentation ........... Add: Equals:TOTAL GENERAL FUND EXPENDITURES [Dept.of Administration] Equals:TOTAL GENERAL FUND EXPENDITURES Add: EXPENDITURES UNDER EXPENDITURE LIMIT Add: 3-4 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A8S.1 TABLE 4 (continued) Minus:Special Capital Appropriations General Fund Capital Special Permanent Fund Contributions Permanent Fund Distribution Augmentation Federal Grants-in-Aid for Capital statistical Discrepancy EXSPCAP EXGFCAP EXPFCONX EXTRNSX RSFDNCAX (EXINREC-EXINRECB) Add:Special Fund Receipts Enterprise Fund Receipts Non-General Fund University of Alaska Receipts RSFS RSIAS PARNONGF *EXUA Equals:TOTAL OPERATING BUDGET Operations Debt Service Non-General Fund U of A Receipts EXBUD EXOPS EXDSS PARNONGF *EXUA Add:Capital Expenditures general fund . capital projects fund (bond sales and federal grants) Special Capital Expenditures Permanent Fund Dividends EXGFCAP EXCPS EXCAP EXSPCAP EXTRNS Equals:TOTAL STATE SPENDING 3-S EX99S Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A8S.1 Two constant difficulties in modeling state fiscal behavior are the lack of consistency in the data among the primary sources utilized and the evolution over time in programs,organizational structure,and methods and formats for the presentation of data. This evolution is often rapid and radical. In order to obtain a complete picture of state government fiscal activities,three major sources of data--the Department of Revenue Revenue Sources and Petroleum Production Revenue Forecast,the Department of Administration Annual Financial Report,and the Office of the Governor Budget Document--as well as a number of other data sources are used.Different accounting conventions as well as different definitions of such items as the general fund balance, general fund revenues,etc.,among these sources and also between these sources and other sources of information on government fiscal activity such as the legislature make it impossible,particularly during periods of rapid growth in government activity reflected in the appearance of new programs,to model state fiscal activity consistently from the perspective of all data sources.The guiding principle in the development and evolution of the fisc.al model is that it be the best consistent representation of all fiscal aspects of state government and clearly incorporate into its structure the most important linking mechanisms between state spending,fund balances,and the size and composition of the private economy. The general fund is the main state government fund into which the .maj ci?TEy of·state revenues flow ana -fromwlllcn general appropriations for government operations,including capital expenditures,and transfers to local governments originate. Unappropriated funds accumulate in the general fund until they are appropriated and spent.These funds are,in general,available for any purpose,with two exceptions.First,a large portion of general fund appropriations fund entitlement programs which are budgeted on the basis of formulas linked to population,price level,and other economic and demographic ..variables.-Theformulasmay-bealtered ·by- law,-but.-absent.-suGh-ehanges,-these-..progr.am--budgets-wi lLvar-y- automatically with economic and demographic change.Second,a portion of general fund revenues termed "restricted"consists of federal grants-in-aid,interagency receipts,and other minor sources of income that are restricted in use to certain programs.These restricted revenues form a part of the overall budget but are not a source of discretionary state spending. The Permanent Fund is the other major fund of the state.A constitutionally specified portion of state royalties and bonuses from the sale and production of natural resources,principally petroleum,is deposited in the Permanent Fund.These deposits·can be supplemented by special contributions and the reinvestment of earnings.Fund earnings can also be transferred to the general fund or also directly into a cash distribution program. 3-6 !I ( .r ) Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A8S.1 State government activity affects the private economy in several ways which are listed and described in Table S. TABLE S.LINKS BETWEEN FISCAL AND ECONOMIC ACTIVITY State government wages and salaries combine government wage rate to determine employment. wages and salaries is a function of both composition of the state operating budget. with a state The level of the size and XXVACAP The value added by state-funded (including local grants RLTMCAP)capital construction contributes to the total value added of the construction industry.Value added is a function of the size and composition of the state capital budget. EXTRNS EXSUBS RLT99 Permanent Fund dividends increase individual disposable personal income. State personal income tax payments reduce individual disposable personal income. Subsidies increase discretionary income and stimulate the activity being subsidized in the short run but have no effect in the long run. Local government wages and salaries combine with a local government wage rate to determine employment.This is a function of the size of the local government budget. Transfers from state to local government increase local spending and reduce state spending.State spending is reduced by education transfers,tax sharing,revenue sharing,capital grants,and exogenous transfers.Local spending is increased by education transfers,tax sharing, revenue sharing,and exogenous transfers.Capital grants remain as a portion of state-funded construction activity. 3-7 Institute of Social ·1 and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A8S.1) Modeling of local fiscal activity is subject to the same problems of historical consistency and data availability as state fiscal activity modeling.The main data source is the annual report on local government fiscal activity from the U.S.Department of Commerce.The data in these documents is based upon survey rather than census,and the definitions are not always consistent with either the state of Alaska or the various local governments in the state.The major problem area is linking of the state and local fiscal sectors through the modeling of state-local transfers.Not only have the programs themselves changed form on an almost annual basis in·recent years,but the local response to increased state assistance has varied by program.Local government can,and does, both increase its programs and reduce local taxes when state aid increases.These links consequently are modeled in a very general way. The level of local government activity is essentially determined by state transfers and average per capita wealth. Fiscal Rule The state fiscal model is guided by a "fiscal rule"which is a set of user-specified parameters which control the level and composition of state spending (and thus indirectly influence the level of local government spending).The "fiscal rule"is necessary .becau~e_the~izeanQ.co!!lPositlQIL._Q.f __ptat.!L_~1>p_ro1>.ri~tion~j,~t1:l~ result of a political process which in years past has displayed no stability or consistency.Consequently,the past cannot serve as an adequate basis for modeling future spending. III additiori~the various·uses to which·the model is put require that alternative specifications of future state spending patterns be available for particular analyses.Because of the large relative size and economic importance of state spending in the Alaska -economY;··ftlsirnport.antto be·able to Vary the·pattern of sta.te ···~····_·_·_-_··~·_--·-~SIH:rtrdttfg-tilh-en-p-erf·6rming-d·iff-erent-ana-lys·e·s-with-the-mode-l-.--·_·__······--_... Specifically,the model has been used for the following types of analyses,each requiring a different formulation of the "fiscal rule": 1.Projections.In these analyses,the most likely fiscal behavior is assumed. 2.Fiscal Policy Analysis.In these analyses,the fiscal and economic effects of particular fiscal policies are examined,for example,the effects of the Permanent Fund dividend distribution program. 3-8 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 3.Aggregate Spending Analyses.In these analyses,the fiscal and economic effects of different aggregate state spending strategies are analyzed. 4.Public Service Demand Analyses.In these analyses, demand for public services determines the level of spending.Demand can be in the form of population, price level,personal income,exogenous growth rates, or other variables. 5.Impact Analyses.In these analyses,the fiscal and economic effects of specific private sector economic activities are examined.The state fiscal response to a change in private sector activity can be specified in a variety of ways. Because of the constantly changing modeling requirements dictated by different analyses as well as changing state fiscal behavior,the "fiscal rules"are constantly changing,and rather than reflecting a model weakness,this is actually a reflection of the continuing instability and volatility within the state fiscal sector. At present,the "fiscal rule"is controlled by the spending limit when revenues and fund balances are sufficient to spend the amount allowed by the limit and by available revenues otherwise. Table 6 shows the parameters (each is actually a vector of values) which the user must select in choosing a "fiscal rule"within the framework of the spending limit.One important policy change occurs automatically in response to elimination of the Permanent Fund dividend distribution.This is reinstatement of the personal income tax after two years. 3-9 LIKELY TO CHANGE BETWEEN SCENARIOS (POLICY) EXDFPCNT percent of development fund earnings withdrawn EXDFl percent of state current account balance placed into development fund (hypothetical) TABLE 6.PARAMETERS OF CHOICE:STATE "FISCAL RULE"FOR SPENDING LIMIT CASE (EXRLs)a I ~\ ,j ,.j ,..\ ,l 1 state general fund balance unavailable for appropriation state general fund appropriations to the Permanent FundAPPFCONX Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A8S.1 BALGFUNA EXGFOPSX exogenous component of state unrestricted general fund operating expenditures EXPFCONX Permanent Fund contributions ....appropriafed from ·t:.'he general fund EXPFDIST percent of Permanent Fund earnings (calculated as five- year moving average)distributed to individuals as dividends .j EXPFTOGF percent ofPerm"Elnent Fund·····earnings-~ner==oI=divrdends transferred to the General Fund aNot including petroleum revenues. EXPF1 EXSAVX EXSPCAP EXSPLITX EXSUBSX EXSUB1 EXSUB2 percent contribution from available funds to Permanent Fund if EXRLOP7 is invoked in determination of state operating expenditures ,this is the exogenous amount of revenues special capital appropriations over the spending limit the target allocation to operations when state spending f~lls below the authorized spending limit the level of exogenous state subsidies under programs initiated since 1980 stimulative effect of state subsidies on construction industry stimulative effect of state subsidies on consumer spending , I 1 I I I \ 3-10 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A8S.1 TABLE 6 (continued) EXTRNSX LBONDI LFEDI LGF1 RLPTX I !RLTFPX RLTMCAP RLTX RSFDNX RTCSX state Permanent Fund dividend distribution funded through the general fund proportion of state general obligation bonds for highways proportion of federal capital grants for highways proportion of general fund capital expenditures for highways exogenous local property tax petroleum-related federal-local government transfers municipal capital grants from the state exogenous state-local transfers exogenous federal-state transfer payments exogenous corporate income tax UNLIKELY TO CHANGE BETWEEN SCENARIOS (EXOGENOUS) I I EXDSSXI) EXPFDVXl EXPFDVX2 EXTRNSPI GODTX LPTRAT P9PTPER annual debt service payment to service general obligation bonds outstanding at beginning of simulation period accounting adjustment to Permanent Fund retained earnings in early years accounting adjustment to Permanent Fund dividend program in early years state Permanent Fund dividends in 1982 and 1983 incorporated in state personal income general obligation bonded indebtedness of the state from debt incurred before start of simUlation percentage of pipeline property within local juris- dictions actually subject to local tax because of limitations imposed by state statutes percentage of petroleum property which is taxable by state which falls within local taxing jurisdiction 3-11 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A8S.1 TABLE 6 (continued) i I \ RSFDNCAX RSIPS RTISXX TCRED TXBASE TXCRPC TXPTXX TXRT federal grants-in-aid to state general fund for capital expenditures state Permanent Fund interest--initial adjustment adjustment of disposable income to cover lag in refund in state personal income taxes after repeal individual tax credit beginning after 12/31/77 change in the floor of personal income tax rate schedule state personal income tax credit adjustment (percentage of tax liability) adjustment to withold from state expenditures a portion of any personal income tax reduction percentage change in state personal income tax rate -I SPECIAL STARTUP VALUES REQUIRED (EXOGENOUS) BALDF6 BALGF6 BALPF6 BIU6 EXCPSFD6 EXCPSGB6 EXGFCAP6 EXGFCOT6 EXOPS6 EXUA6 PITRAN6 RLTEB6 3-12 RLTMA6 RLTRS6 RMISRES6 RSFDN6 RSIG6 RTOTS6 ! ! I I j I \ I r I I I Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A8S.1 STATE FISCAL MODULE DETAIL Petroleum Revenues Petroleum revenues (RP9S)are divided between the general fund (RP9SGF)and the Permanent Fund (RP7SPF)which receives a portion (EXPFl)of bonuses (RPBS),royalties (RPRY),rents (RPEN),and federal~shared royalties (RSFDNPX).In addition to those sources of petroleum revenues split between the general and Permanent Funds (RP7S),other petroleum revenues which go into the general fund consist of the state portion of property taxes (RPPS),severance taxes (RPTS),corporate income taxes (RTCSPX),and miscellaneous (RP9X).All are exogenous.The cumulative discounted value of petroleum revenues from 1984 is calculated (DF.RSVP). 18:RP7S ==RPBS+RPRY+RPEN+RSFDNPX 19:RPBSGF --(l-EXPFl)*RPBS 20:RPRYGF ==(l-EXPFl)*RPRY 21:RPENGF --(l-EXPFl)*RPEN 22:RSFDNPXG ==(l-EXPFl)*RSFDNPX 23:RP7SGF --RPBSGF+RPRYGF+RPENGF+RSFDNPXG 24:RP7SPF --RP7S-RP7SGF 25:RP9S ==RP7S+RPPS+RPTS+RTCSPX+RP9X 26:RP9SGF ==RP9S-RP7SPF 27:DF.RSVP =IF YR LT 1984 THEN 0 ELSE DF.RSVP(-1)+RP9S* (PDRPIBAS/PDRPI)*(1/(1+RORDISK)**(YR-1983» Personal Income Taxes1 Although Alaska does not presently impose an income tax on individuals,the personal income tax equations remain in the model for several reasons.It is possible to calculate what the tax receipts would be if reimposed,the model structure is ready if it is reimposed,and the similar structure of the federal and state personal income taxes means it is easier to calculate the federal tax receipts with some information about the structure of the state tax. lIncluding Federal and local for purposes of calculating disposable personal income 3-13 37:ATI.TT =ATI/ATT 31:AGI =FAGI+COLA-WSGM-PC12N*PC12RN*ANCSA*PCNCl :l I ~ l ] J ! 1 l j J 1 j ( ! I ( in Alaska (FAGII), earned in the state for federal personal 3S:VAEX =IF YR LT 1983-THENVAEX6 ELSE VAEX(-l)*(l+GRUSCPT) 38:LOG(RTISCAl)=C24A-TXBASE+C24B*(1-TXRT)*LOG(ATI.TT) 33:ATT =C28A+C28B*(EM99-EMGM)+C28C*EMCNXl 34:LOG (ATD/ATT)=C23A+C23B*LOG(AGI/ATT)+C23C*D69+C23D*D72 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A8S.1 30:COLA =(1-1/(1+PCOLART»*WSGC 29:LOG(FAGII)=C22A+C22B*LOG(PI) 28:LOG(FAGI)=C21A+C21B*LOG(PI8)+C21C*LOG(EMCNXl+EMP9) Several policy variables allow for examination of changes in the tax structure (TXBASE,TXRT,TXCRPC,TCRED).Finally,the difference between tax receipts using the historical (pre-1978 schedule)and the structure under examination is calculated (RTISLOS). The state income tax is calculated on a per-taxpayer basis (RTISCA)using Alaska taxable income (ATI)and the nl.;lmber of taxpayers (ATT).Alaska taxable income is derived from federal adjusted gross income earned in Alaska (FAGI)by first netting out nontaxable military pay (WSGM)and Native claims payments (ANCSA) and adding in the taxable federal cost-of-living allowance (COLA)to derive Alaskan adjusted gross income (AGI).This is.next reduced by exemptions (AEX)each of which has a value (VAEX)and deductions (ATD). Personal taxes netted out of income to arrive at disposable income include state income taxes paid by residents on a calendar- year basis (RTISCP),federal income taxes (RTPIF),and local taxes (DPIRES).Total calendar-year state income taxes (RTISC)and fiscal year taxes (RTIS)are also calculated. Federal adjusted gross income reported smaller than federal adjusted gross income because of transient workers,forms the base income tax c.olle.ctions. 39:LOG(RTISCA2)=C24A+C24B*LOG(ATI.TT) 3-14 LJ ·,1 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A8S.1 40:RTISCA ==IF YR GT 1984 THEN (IF EXTRNS+EXTRNS(-l)EQ 0 THEN EXRLS*(RTISCA1-TXCRPC*RTISCA1-TCRED/1000)ELSE 0)ELSE (IF YR LT 1979 THEN RTISCA1-TXCRPC*RTISCA1-TCRED/1000 ELSE 0) 41:RTISLOS ==(RTISCA2-RTISCA)*ATT 42:RTISC =RTISCA*ATT 43:RTIS =IF YR EQ 1980 THEN 0 ELSE C25A*RTISC(-1)+C25B*RTISC 44:RTISCP =C10SA+C105B*PI8+C10SC*RTISC 45:LOG (RTPIF/ATT)=C26A+C26B*LOG(FAGII/ATT+TCRED/1000/ATT+ RTISLOS/ATT-EXPF3*EXTRNS/ATT)+C26C*D61.68*LOG(FAGII/ATT+ TCRED/1000/ATT+RTISLOS/ATT-EXPF3*EXTRNS/ATT) 46:DPIRES =C27A+C27B*PI3+C27C*WSCNP other Taxes A number of other small sources of revenues complete the modeling of state taxes.Of these,the most important is the corporate income tax composed of petroleum industry taxes (RTCSPX), endogenous taxes (RTCS1),and exogenous taxes associated with some' future large activities (RTCSX). The gross receipts tax (RTBS)has been largely eliminated since 1979,but its structure is still modeled using business licenses (BL)and gross receipts (GR)as the tax base.From the latter,gross taxable receipts (GTR)are calculated.Only a fraction (PBLTBL)of revenues which would have been received prior to 1980 are now collected. The motor fuel tax (RTMF)is next in order of importance.It is a function of the volume of fuel oil sales (THG)which,in turn,is a product of the number of vehicles on the road (TPTV)and average consumption per vehicle (AHG). Other endogenous taxes are ad valorem taxes,which are similar to a gross receipts tax but levied only on insurance companies and public utilities (RTVS),alcohol (RTAS)and cigarette (RTCIS)sales taxes,and the school tax (RTSS)which was eliminated in 1981. Finally,there is a residual category of other taxes (RTOTS) consisting of fish processing taxes and miscellaneous small revenue producers. Total taxes (BT99)includes all general fund taxes except for a portion of cigarette taxes (PECIG)earmarked for a special revenue fund. 3-15 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A8S.1 47:RTCS1*100/PDRPI =C43A+C43E*D80+C43D*(EM97(-1)-EM97(-2»+ C43B*EMCNX1(-1)+C43C*EM97 (-1) 48:RTCS ==RTCS1+RTCSPX+RTCSX 49:BL =C39A+C39B*(XX98-XXP9) 50:LOG(GR)=C40A+C40B*LOG(XX98-XXP9) 51:RTBS1 ==BL*1000*PBTRATE 52:GTR =GR-BL(-1)*PNTGR*1000 53:LOG(RTBS2*10**3/BL(-1»==C29A+C29B*LOG(GTR(-1)*10**3/BL(-1» 54:RTBS ==IF YR GE 1979 THEN RTBS1+RTBS2*PBLTBL ELSE RTBS1+RTBS2 55:TPTV =C38A+C38B*POP 56:LOG(AHG)=C37A+C37B*LOG(PR.PI) 57:THG ==.AHG*TPTV 59:LOG(RTVS)=C47A+C47B*LOG(R.DPI8N(-1» 60:LOG (RTAS)=C48A+C48B*LOG(R.DPI(-1» 61:LOG(RTCIS)=C49A+C49B*LOG(R.DPI(-1» 62:RTSS =IF YR GT 1980 THEN 0 ELSE C50A+C50B*(EM99-EMGM) -.--..__..~_.·---·_···~---63-:-RTOTS =IF-YR1.:;E-1:981J-THEN-RTOTS6--ELSE-RTOTS-C=1-)*tr-T'GRUSCPI-r------·· GRDIRPU) 64:RT99 ==RTIS+RTCS+RPPS+RPTS+RP9X+RTBS+RTMF+RTAS+(1-PECIG)* RTCIS+RTVS+RTSS+RTOTS 3-16 :'1 '\ .t ! ] I ! I 1 1 I I 1 .J j ,\ '\ r Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A8S.1 other State General Fund Unrestricted Revenues Licenses and fees (ROFTS)consist of auto licenses and fees (ROFAS)and business and some nonbusiness licenses and fees (ROFOS). State ferry income (RFERS)is a component of general fund revenues, which grows with income.The final element is miscellaneous nontax revenues consisting of such things as nonpetroleum royalties and user fees. 65:LOG(ROFAS)=C30A+C30B*LOG(TPTV(-1» 66:LOG(ROFOS)=C33A+C33B*LOG(PI3(-1» 67:ROFTS ==ROFAS+ROFOS 68:ROFERS =ROFERS(-1)*(1+GRUSCPI+GRDIRPU) 69:LOG(RMIS)=C35A+C3SB*LOG(PI3(-1» State Investment Earnings State investment earnings from all state funds (RSI99),including the general fund (RSIG),Permanent Fund (RSIP),and a (hypothetical) development fund (RSID),are calculated based upon the balance in each fund and a fund-specific real rate of return.They are as follows:general fund--ROR,Permanent Fund--ROR+RORPPF,development fund--ROR-RORPDF. Net earnings of each fund,after inflation,is also calculated for each RSIGNET,RSI99NET). accounting for fund (RSIPNET, Alaskan RSIDNET, A portion (EXPFTOGF)of the earnings of the Permanent Fund (RSIPGF)is transferred to the general fund which,together with general fund earnings,comprise total investment revenues of the general fund (RSIN). 70:RSIP =RSIPS+(ROR+GRUSCPI+RORPPF)*(BALPF(-1)+ (RP7SPF+EXPFCONX)12) 71:RSIPGF =IF YR LT 1984 THEN EXPFTOGF*RSIP ELSE EXPFTOGF* (RSIP-EXTRNS) 72:RSID ==(ROR+GRUSCPI-RORPDF)*BALDF(-1) 3-17 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 73:RSIG ==IF YR LE 1983 THEN RSIG6 ELSE (ROR+GRUSCPI)* BALGF9(-1) 74:RSIN ==RSIG+RSIPGF 75:RSI99 ==RSIG+RSID+RSIP 76:RSIPNET ==(ROR+GRUSCPI-(PDRPI/PDRPI(-1)-1)+RORPPF)* BALPF(-l) 77:RSIDNET ==(ROR+GRUSCPI-(PDRPI/PDRPI(-1)-1)-RORPDF)* BALDF(-l) 78:RSIGNET ==(ROR+GRUSCPI-(PDRPI/PDRPI(-1)-1»*BALGF9(-1) 79:RSI99NET ==(ROR+GRUSCPI-(PDRPI/PDRPI(-1)-1»*BAL99+RORPPF* BALPF (-1)-RORPDF*BALDF (-1). Total Unrestricted.Restricted.and Total General Fund Revenues Total unrestricted general fund revenues (RSGFBM)is the sum of taxes and other revenues,including any transfers into the general fund from the (hypothetical)development fund (EXDFWITH),net of .....~~Clt~Ab!.~S~A paYJll~I1ts.(~1\1j_CS:A). Total general fund revenues (RSGF)consist of restricted (RSGFRS) as well as unrestricted (RSGFBM).funds •Restricted funds .include federal program augmentation (RSFDN)and state program augmentation as well as miscellaneous restricted receipts (RMISRES).These are both categories for funds earmarked for specific purposes.Total general fund revenues defined by the Annual Financial Report (RSGF.AFR)also includes interagency receipts (EXINREC). 80:RSGFBM ==RT99+RP7SGF+ROFTS+ROFERS+RSIN+RMIS-SANCSA+EXDFWITH 81:RSFDN =IF YR LE 1983 THEN RSFDN6 ELSE RSFDNX+RSFDN(-1)* (l+GRUSCPI+GRDIRPU) 82:RMISRES=·IF··YRLE 1983 THENRMISRES6 ELSERMISRES(-1)j( (l+GRUSCPI+GRDIRPU) 83:RSGFRS ==RSFDN+RMISRES 84:RSGF =RSGFBM+RSGFRS 85:RSGF.AFR ==RSGF+EXINREC 3-18 1 J \ l 1 J j -I .! Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A8S.1 Permanent Fund and Development Fund (hypothetical) Gross Permanent Fund contributions (EXPFCON9)consist of three elements:statutorially required contributions (RP7SPF),earnings (RSIP),and general fund appropriations actually paid (EXPFCONX). Permanent fund earnings are allocated between the general fund (RSIPGF),the dividend distribution program (EXTRNS),and reinvestment (RSIPPF).Earnings not transferred to the general fund (RSIPPF1)plus statutory contributions (RP7SPF)comprise net fund revenues (EXPFCON1).Net fund additions (EXPFCON)are retained earnings (RSIPPF),plus statutory contributions (RP7SPF),plus special appropriations (EXPFCONX).The dividend amount is P.EXTRNS. A development fund does not currently exist but has periodically been suggested for the specific purpose of investing in Alaskan infrastructure development.If it did,a certain portion of excess current account revenues plus annual investment earnings net of withdrawals might form the annual contributions (EXDFCON). Withdrawals might be a percentage of net earnings (EXDFPCNT). 93:RSIPPF1 ==RSIP-RSIPGF 94:RSIPPF --IF YR LT 1984 THEN RSIPPFI-EXPFDVXl ELSE (IF YR EQ 1984 THEN RSIPPFl-(EXTRNS-SO)ELSE RSIPPFI-EXTRNS) 9S:EXPFCONI =RP7SPF+RSIPPF1 96:EXPFCON9 ==RSIP+RP7SPF+EXPFCONX 97:EXPFCON =RSIPPF+RP7SPF+EXPFCONX 98:EXDFCON =IF RSGFBM GT EXGFBM THEN EXDFl*(RSGFBM-EXGFBM)+ (RSID-EXDFWITH)ELSE RSID-EXDFWITH 99:EXDFWITH =EXDFPCNT*RSIDNET .3-19 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A8S.1 Total Revenues and Miscellaneous Fund Revenues Total revenues (R99S)is defined to include general fund revenues,net Permanent Fund revenues (EXPFCON1),and (hypothetical) development fund earnings,all net of state required ANCSA payments (SANCSA),which were completed in 1981.Since deposits and withdrawals can occur between these funds,care is taken to avoid double counting. Endogenous revenues (RSEN)is the residual of total revenues minus petroleum revenues,investment earnings,and federal transfers.Total general fund unrestricted revenues can be divided into three categories:petroleum (RP9SGF),fund earnings (RSIN),and endogenous revenues (RSENGF). Revenues into two other small families of funds are calculated. Special revenue funds (RSFS)consist of some special fees and licenses (RSFFS),a portion (PECIG)of cigarette taxes,and some miscellaneous.itemsli'ke f~g~t"al,.r~V~I'l1J~~ha.r:i.,ng~_'J:l:ll?.iI'l.!::~t"!l.a:tJQ!l.al airport enterprise fund (RSIAS)is the final category. 86:R99S =RSGF+EXPFCON1+(RSID-EXDFWITH) 92:RSENGF ==SANCSA+RSGFBM-RP9SGF~RSIN 87:LOG(RSFFS)=CS8A+CS8B*LOG(POP(-1» 88:RSFS1 =RSFS1(-1)*(1+GRUSCPI+GRDIRPU) 90:RSIAS =RSIAS(-1)*(1+GRUSCPI+GRDIRPU) 3-20 ( j I IJ \j Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A8S.1 state Expenditures--Major Categories The constitutional amendment establishing the expenditure limit (EXLIM)places a ceiling on state appropriations from the general fund except for debt service (EXDSS),voter-approved capital expenditures (EXSPCAP),and supplementary Permanent Fund contributions (APPFCONX).The ceiling has been set at $2.5 billion for 1982,and is annually adjusted for inflation and population change.The allowable limit (EXLIMOK)may be less than this if current revenues plus the balance in the general fund are less than the spending limit ceiling.The difference between these amounts is defined as the revenue gap (RSGFGAP). The spending limit also requires that a portion (EXSPLIT),no more than two-thirds of appropriations,be allocated toward operations (APGFOPS),with at least one-third for capital (APGFCAP), including subsidies (EXSUBS)and municipal capital grants (RLTMCAP). If the limit is not in effect,this rule may be inoperative, depending upon interpretation of the amendment .Total general fund appropriations (APGF)exceeds that under the limit since it includes debt service (EXDSS),special capital appropriations (EXSPCAP), supplementary Permanent Fund contributions (APPFCONX),and ANCSA payments (SANCSA). Total operating expenditures (net of debt service)funded from all sources (EXOPS)is the sum of the operating portion of the general fund (EXGFOPS)which equals appropriations (APGFOPS)and operating expenditures funded from sources not constrained by the limit.These sources are interagency receipts (EXINRECB), restricted general fund revenues (RSGFRS)net of those federal transfers earmarked for capital expenditures (RSFDNCAX),special revenue fund receipts (RSFS),and the international airport enterprise fund (RSIAS). A number of other rules for determining state operating expenditures are possible but are currenty not utilized.These involve linking spending to demand factors such as income and population,allowing spending to grow at some fixed rate,allowing spending to grow as some function of a base case (BASEXOPS),or spending some annuity amount (EXANSAV or EXSAVS). Total capital expenditures (EXCAP)is determined in the model as capital expenditures from the general fund (EXGFCAP),augmented by capital expenditures funded out of capital projects funds (EXCPS). Special capital expenditures (EXSPCAP)are not included in this definition of capital expenditures. As with the operating budget,several other options are available,but not currently in use,for formulating state government capital expenditure behavior.These alternatives 3-21 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 parallel those for the operating budget but include,in addition, the alternative of programming capital spending to maintain a specified level of real per capita state capital stock (PR.BALCP). The other main elements of state spending are the Permanent Fund dividend program (EXTRNS)and subsidy programs (EXSUBS)as well as municipal capital grants (RLTMCAP)in the capital bUdget.The dividends are determined as a proportion (EXPFDIST)of Permanent Fund earnings over the previous five years plus general fund augmenting appropriations (EXTRNSX).Municipal capital .grantsare set exogenously.Subsidies are exogenous.Interagency receipts defined in the Annual Financial Report (EXINREC)are a function of the operating budget;interagency receipts defined by the Executive Budget (EXINRECB)are a function of EXINREC. 110:EXLIM =IF YR EQ 1982 THEN EXLIM82 ELSE EXLIM82* (PDRPI/364.23)*(POP/460) 111:EXLIMOK =IF YR LT 1985 THEN EXLIM ELSE (IF RSGFBM-EXDSS+ BALGFAFA(-l)GT EXLIM THEN EXLIM ELSE RSGFBM-EXDSS) 112:RSGFGAP ==EXLIM-EXLIMOK 113:EXSPLIT ==IF YR LT 1985 THEN 0.67 ELSE (IF RSGFGAP GT 0 AND RSGF(;M>t-J')_~'!'_O THEN EXSPLITX ELSE (IF RSGFGAP GT 0 THEN 0.67+(EXSPLITX-0.67)/2 ELSE 0.67» 114:APGFOPS --EXLIMOK*EXSPLIT 115:APGFCAP --EXLIMOK*(l-EXSPLIT) 116:APGF ==APGFOPS+APGFCAP+EXDSS+EXSPCAP+APPFCONX+SANCSAX 118:EXOPS =IF YR LE 1985 THEN EXOPS6 ELSE EXRL5*(EXGFOPS+ EXINRECB+RSGFRS-RSFDNCAX+RSFS+RSIAS)+EXRL1*(EXOPS(-1)* (l+(EXELl*(POP(~1)/POP(-2)-1)+EXEL2*(PDEXOPS(-1)/PDEXOPS (-2)-1)+EXEL3*(PR.PI3(-1)/PR.PI3(-2)-1)+EXEL4*(PI(-I)I PI (-2)-1)+EXEL5*(PI3(-1)/PI3(-2)-I)+EXEL6*«POP(-1)-EMCNX1(-1»1 (POP(-2)-EMCNXl(-2»-1»)+EXRLOP6*BALGFCP(-1)*(BALGFPC-1)1 EXGF(..:I)})+EXRLOP7*(R99S(..:1)..:EXNOPS(""'-1).....EXSAVS)+EXRLOP8* (R.99S (';l)-..i.EXNOPS (=l}=ExAlilSAV)+EXRL3*(l+GRRPCEX)*(EXOPS{--I)/ POP(-1)/PDEXOPS(-1)*POP*PDEXOPS)+EXRL2*EXOPS(-1)*(l+GREXOPS)+ EXRL4*(BASEXOPS+EXOPSIMP*(PDEXOPS*(POP-BASEPOP-EXRL40P* (EMCNX1-BASEMCNX»» 119:EXANSAV =RP9S+RSIG+RSIP-EXANNU*(l+RORANGRO)**(YR-1983) 3-22 11 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 120:EXSAVS =EXSAVX+EXPFCON+TXPTXX*RTISLOS 121:EXGFCAP ==IF YR LE 1985 THEN EXGFCAP6 ELSE 0.3*APGFCAP+0.7* APGFCAP (-1) 122:EXCAP =IF YR LE 1985 THEN EXGFCAP+EXCPS ELSE EXRL5*(EXGFCAP+ EXCPS)+EXRL3*«1+GRSSCP)*PR.BALCP(-1)*POP/1000-R.BALCAP(-1)* (1/(1+RORCPDEP»)/(100/PDCON)+EXRL2*(EXCAP(-1)*(1+GREXCAP»+ EXRL4*(BASEXCAP+EXCAPIMP*(PDCON*(POP-BASEPOP-EXRL40P* (EMCNX1-BASEMCNX»»+EXRL1*(EXCAP(-1)*(1+EXEL1*(POP(-1)1 POP(-2)-1)+EXEL2*(PDCON(-1)/PDCON(-2)-1)+EXEL3*(PR.PI3 (-1)1 PR.PI3(-2)-1)+EXEL4*(PI(-1)/PI(-2)-1)+EXEL5*(PI3(-1)/ PI3(-2)-1)+EXEL6*«POP(-1)-EMCNX1(-1»/(POP(-2)-EMCNXl (-2»-1») 123:EXSUBS =IF YR LT 2011 THEN EXSUBSX ELSE (IF EXRL5 EQ 1 THEN (IF RSGFBM(-1)+RSGFBM(-2)-1 LT EXGFBM(-1)+EXGFBM(-2)OR EXSUBS(-l)EQO THEN 0 ELSE EXLIMOK*(0.5*(1-EXSPLIT»)ELSE EXSUBS(-1)*(1+GRUSCPI» 124:EXTRNS =IF YR LT 1984 THEN EXTRNSX+EXPFDVX2 ELSE EXTRNSX+EXPFDVX2+EXPFDIST*(RSIP(-1)+ RSIP(-2)+RSIP(-3)+RSIP(-4)+RSIP)15 125:EXINREC =C17A+C17B*(EXOPS-RLT99)+C17C*D82 126:EXINRECB =C108A+C108B*EXINREC State Expenditure Totals Total general fund expenditures,including restricted and unrestricted accounts (EXGF),consists of operations (EXGFOPS+RSGFRS), debt .service (EXDSS),general fund capital expenditures (EXGFCAP), special capital expenditures (EXSPCAP),special Permanent Fund appropriation (EXPFCONX),and Permanent Fund dividend augmentation (EXTRNSX).Unrestricted general fund expenditures (EXGFBM)nets out restricted revenues (RSGFRS). General fund expenditures defined by the Annual Financial Report is also calculated (EXGF .AFR).Traditional general fund operating expenditures defined by the Annual Financial Report (EXGFOT.A)is also calculated. Operating expenditures defined by the state budget (EXBUD)includes debt service expenditures and nongeneral fund University of Alaska receipts as well as operating expenditures defined above (EXOPS). T\o,rQ other variables calcula-t.e4-a-re total expenditures (EX99S)and nonoperating expenditures (EXNOPS). 3-23 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 186:EXGF =EXGFOPS+EXDSS+EXGFCAP+EXSPCAP+EXPFCONX+RSGFRS+EXTRNSX 187:EXGFBM =EXGF-RSGFRS 188:EXGF.AFR --EXGF+EXINREC 189:EXGFOT.A --EXGFOPS+EXINREC+RSGFRS-RSFDNCAX 190:EXBUD --EXOPS+EXDSS+PARNONGF*EXUA 191:EX99S =EXBUD+EXTRNS+EXCAP+EXSPCAP 192:EXNOPS =EX99S-EXOPS state Operating Expenditure Detail An initial estimate of state operating expenditures net of debt service in each of nine functional categories (EXaaa4)is calculated as a function of total operating expenditures.From these,the ratio RATI01 is formed with total operating expenditures,and the initial estimates are ratioed down or up so that the final values (EXaaa)sum exactly to total operating expenditures.In the commerce and economic development program (EXCDS),exogenous state local transfers (RLTX) ace added in before the adjustment occurs. University of Alaska expenditures (EXUA)are a large part of the total education budget and are thus calculated separately. Personnel expenditures by program category (EXPRaaa)are a function of expenditures.For two program categories,education and commerce, this is net of transfers to local government.Preliminary estimates of total education transfers (RLTE994),tax sharing (RLTT94),and revenue-sharlng''(RLTRSliT'come-f-romthe·fo-caIgovernmentmoder~-T1:iese are aa]ustea--forcons1stency wf£1:l-£otaI opera£ing·expenoT£ures·oy· RATI01 and then netted out of their respective categories. Total personnel expenditures (EXPR99)and state government wages and salaries fiscal-year (WSGSFY)and calendar-year basis (WSGS)are derived from the detailed categories. 127-135:LOG(EXaaa4)=CbbA+CbbB*LOG(EXOPS) 136:RATI01 ==EXOPS/(EXEDS4+EXSSS4+EXHES4+EXNRS4+EXPPS4+ EXJUS4+EXCDS4+RLTX+EXTRS4+EXGGS4) 137:EXUA =IF YR LE 1983 THEN EXUA6 ELSE EXUA(-l)* (EXOPS/EXOPS(-l» 3-24 J J j ·1 'I .1 j I ! J .i j f1 I I j j Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 138-145:EXaaa =RATI01*EXaaa4 146:EXCDS =RATio1*(EXCDS4+RLTX) 147 :RLTE99 =RLTE994*RATI01 148:EXEDSNT ==EXEDS-RLTE99 149:RLTT9 =RLTT94*RATI01 150:RLTRS =RLTRS4*RATI01 151:EXCDSNT =EXCDS-RLTT9-RLTRS-RLTX 152:EXPRCDS =C7A+C7B*EXCDSNT 153:EXPREDS1 =C1A+C1B*EXEDSNT+C1C*D61.75*EXEDSNT 154-161:EXPRaaa =CbA+CbB*EXaaa 162:EXPR99 =EXPREDS1+EXPRSSS+EXPRHES+EXPRNRS+EXPRPPS+ EXPRJUS+EXPRCDS+EXPRGGS+EXPRTRS+EXPRUA 163:WSGSFY =PCWS1*EXPR99 164:LOG(WSGS)=C55A+C55B*LOG(WSGSFY)+C55C*D75 State Capital Expenditure Detail The sources of revenues for the capital projects fund (EXCPS)are federal capital grants (EXCPSFED)and general obligation bonds of the state (EXCPSGOB).This latter funding source determines the ongoing debt service requirement of the state (EXDSS)based upon the schedule of debt outstanding from previous bond sales (EXDSSX)plus debt service on debt newly incurred after 1983 (DEBTP83).This new debt is paid off at a constant rate over a fifteen-year period,like a mortgage,according to the capital recovery factor (RORCRF)applied to the newly incurred debt (retired after fifteen years using EXCPSM). The proper measure of the current bonded debt of the state is GODT, consisting of the schedule of debt outstanding from bond sales through 1983 (GODTX)and the remaining debt from bond sales made after 1983. This debt is assumed paid off at the rate of about 7 percent annually for fifteen years. Capital expenditures for purchases of state capital goods are divided into four major categories according to funding source and expenditure type.Highway and nonhighway capital expenditures may be funded out of the general fund (EXGFCHY and EXGFCNH)or from the 3-25 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 capital projects fund which receives its revenues from general obligation bond sales and federal capital grants (EXCPSHY and EXCPSNH).The proportion of each funding source allocated to highway expenditures is LGFI for the general fund,LFEDI for federal funds, and LBONDI for bonds.Total highway (EXHYCAP)and nonhighway (EXNHYCP)capital expenditures are also calculated.Ferry capital expenditures (EXCAPFR)are calculated separately since they represent purchases outside the state. Capital budget expenditures of the general fund includes traditional "bricks and mortar"exp~nditur~s (EXGFCAPl)as well as nontraditional items.These are ca1cu1at~d for the general fund (EXGFCOT)and total funds (EXCAPOT).They consist of subsidies (EXSUBS)and municipal grants (RLTMCAP)from the general fund. The value added to the construction industry from state government capital expenditures (XXVACAP)consists of the nominal value of highway (XXVHY)and nonhighway (XXVNHY)value added,deflated by the price deflator for construction (PDCON).Special capital spending (EXSPCAP),municipal capital grants (RLTMCAP),and a portion of the value of subsidies (EXSUBl)contribute to nonhighway construction value added. 165:RORCRF ==(GRUSCPI+RORBOND)*(I+GRUSCPI+RORBOND)**151 ({l.±(;:RtJ~g~:r +~9RBOND)**15-1) 166:EXCPSGOB ==IF YR LE 1985 THEN EXCPSGB6 ELSE IF EXDSS(-I)1 RSGFBM(-l)GT 0.05 THEN 0 ELSE(O.05*RSGFBM(-I)-EXDSS(-1»1 RORCRF 167:EXCPSFED =IF YR LE 1983 THEN EXCPSFD6 ELSE EXCPSFED(-l)* (I+GRUSCPI) 169:EXGFCOT =IF YR LE 1983 THEN EXGFCOT6 ELSE EXSUBS+RLTMCAP 170:EXGFCAPI ==EXGFCAP-EXGFCOT 171:EXCAPOT ==EXGFCOT 172:EXGFCHY =LGF1*(EXGFCAP-EXSUBS) 173:EXGFCNH =(1-LGF1)*(EXGFCAP-(I-EXSUBl)*EXSUBS) 174:EXCPSHY =LFED1*EXCPSFED+LBOND1*EXCPSGOB 175:EXCPSNH =(I-LFED1)*EXCPSFED+(I-LBONDl)*EXCPSGOB 176:EXNHYCP ==EXGFCNH+EXCPSNH 3-26 J 1 ] J j 1 ] J J .I ] ] I ,] i j J lJ I .1lJ Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A8s.1 177:EXHYCAP ==EXGFCHY+EXCPSHY 178:EXCAPFR =EXCAPFR(-l)*(EXCAP/EXCAP(-l» 179:XXVHY =C41A+C41B*(EXHYCAP+EXHYCAP(-1» 180:XXVNHY =C42A+C42B*(EXNHYCP(-1)+EXSPCAP(-1)+RLTMCAP(-1)- EXCAPFR(-2)+EXNHYCP+EXSPCAP+RLTMCAP-EXCAPFR(-1» 181:XXVACAP --(XXVHY+XXVNHY)/(PDCON/100) 182:EXDSS =IF YR LT 1984 THEN EXDSSX ELSE EXDSSX+RORCRF* DEBTP83(-1) 183:EXCPSM =IF YR LT 1984 THEN 0 ELSE EXCPSGOB 184:DEBTP83 =IF YR LT 1984 THEN 0 ELSE DEBTP83(-1)+ EXCPSGOB-EXCPSM(-ls) 185:GODT =IF YR LT 1984 THEN GODTX ELSE GODTX+EXCPSM(-14)* 0.067+EXCPSM(-13)*0.13+EXCPSM(-12)*0.2+EXCPSM(-11)*0.2 7+ EXCPSM(-10)*0.33+EXCPSM(-9)*0.4+EXCPSM(-8)*0.47+EXCPSM(-7)* 0.s3+EXCPSM(-6)*0.6+EXCPSM(-s)*0.67+EXCPSM(-4)*0.73+ EXCPSM(-3)*0.8+EXCPSM(-2)*0.87+EXCPSM(-1)*0.93+EXCPSGO B State Fund Balances Two measures of current account balance are calculated.The first is the current account balance for the general fund account (BALCABGF),and the second is the current account balance for the general plus Permanent Fund accounts (BALCAB). The model calculates several fund balances.The general fund balance (BALGF9)is calculated.The general fund balance available for appropriations is calculated (BALGFAFA)by netting out the portion which is not available for appropriations (BALGFUNA).The Permanent Fund (BALPF);the (hypothetical)development fund (BALDF); and the sum of the general fund,Permanent Fund,and development fund (BAL99)are calculated.Total balances available for appropriations is calculated (BAL99AFA). Two special indicators of the general fund balance are calculated.The first shows only positive fund values (BALGFP);the second shows positive changes in the balance (BALGFCP). 193:BALCAB ==R99S-EXGF-EXTRNS 194:BALCABGF ==RSGF-EXGF 3-27 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A8S.1 19S:BALGF9 =IF YR LE 1983 THEN BALGF6 ELSE BALGF9(-1)+RSGF-EXGF 196:BALGFAFA =BALGF9(-1)+RSGF-EXGF-BALGFUNA 197:BALDF =IF YR LE 1983 THEN BALDF6 ELSE BALDF(-1)+EXDFCON 198:BALPF =IF YR LE 1983 THEN BALPF6 ELSE BALPF(-1)+EXPFCON 199:BAL99 =BALGF9+BALPF+BALDF 200:BAL99AFA =BALGFAFA+BALPF 201:BALGFP =IF BALGF9 LT 0 THEN 0 ELSE BALGF9 202:BALGFCP =IF BALGF9-BALGF9(-1)GT 0 THEN BALGF9- BALGF9(-1)ELSE 0 State Capital Stock and Operations,Maintenance, and Replacement Costs The real value (R.BALCAP)and real per capita value of the capital stock (PR.BALCP)are calculated on the basis of the depreciation rate (RORCPDEP). A set of equations calculates the cost of operations-snd-- maintenance (EXOM84)and replacement (EXRP84)of the state capital stock put in place beginning in 1984 (BALCAP84).Operations and maintenance is a constant proportion of the capital stock (EXOMCOST) while replacement is the rate necessary to offset·depreciation (RORCPDEP).The running total for the capital stock put in place beginning in 1984 is augmented annually by new additions to the capital stock (EXCAPNEW).These annual new additions are net of................-_..--repfacemenEcajiifal(EXCAPREPr;-cotisistingof-··the-replacement---of··.the ~-----~------------depreciat:ea-p-re-1:9-81J-c~ap±ta-l-sto-c·k--·-in-t-he-annu·a-l---amoun-t-o-f-EXCAE!O-LD--...----------- and replacement of the new'stock (EXRP84). 203:R.BALCAP =R.BALCAP(-1)*(1/(1+RORCPDEP»+(EXGFCHY+EXGFCNH+ EXCPS)*100/PDCON 204:PR.BALCP =R.BALCAP*lOOOIPOP 20ST .--EXCAPREP ::::::::-'IF--YR-LT1984 THENO-ELSE 'RORCPDEP*BALCAP84 (-1)+ EXCAPOLD*(PDRPI/PDRPIBAS) 206:EXCAPNEW ==IF YR LT 1984 THEN 0 ELSE EXGFCHY+EXGFCNH+ EXCPS-EXCAPREP 207:BALCAP84 =IF YR LT 1984 THEN 0 ELSE BALCAP84(-1)* PDRPI/PDRPI (-1)+EXCAPNEW 3-28 I J J 'J J ] i ~ ..~ J ] I ) ) } j J ,.1 ] I ) IJ I II'lJ (j Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 208:EXOM84 --BALCAP84(-1)*EXOMCOST 209:EXRP84 --RORCPDEP*BALCAP84(-1) LOCAL GOVERNMENT FISCAL MODULE DETAIL Local Tax Revenues The local property tax base has one component (LPTB1)which is related to the level of personal income and population.This component of the value of real property in the state is based upon local assessments.A "full-value"assessment (LPTB1FV)is calculated by the state for revenue sharing purposes and is higher by the ratio of full value to local value (PARLVFV). The second component of the local property tax base is derived from the value of petroleum-related capital equipment subject to the state property tax (PTBP9).This value is calculated by -multiplying the tax (RPPS)by the inverse of the tax rate (PTRTS)adjusted for the portion in local jurisdictions.Only a portion (P9PTPER)of petroleum property actually lies within the boundaries of local government,and it is this amount which is the actual base for local taxes (LPTBP9).The complete local property tax base (LPTB)is the sum of the endogenous component (LPTB1)and the proportion (LPTRAT) of petroleum property within local boundaries which is actually taxable because of the per capita maximum valuation restriction.In addition,the model generates the "full value"of local property (LPTBFV)which is the sum of endogenous "full value"property and petroleum property within local boundaries.Finally,the full value of personal property in the state (PPVAL)is calculated as the full value of the local endogenous base and the value of petroleum property. Local property tax receipts (RLPT1)is a function of the value of property.If there is exogenous activity which generates additional property taxes,this is added (RLPTX)to get a grand total (RLPT). Other taxes (RLOT)consists primarily of sales taxes. 220:LOG(LPTB1)=C57A+C57B*LOG(P.PI(-1»+C57C*LOG(POP(-1» 221:LPTB1FV ==LPTB1*1/PARLVFV 222:PTBP9 ==RPPS*(1/PTRTS)/(1-P9PTPER*LPTRAT) 223:LPTBP9 ==P9PTPER*PTBP9 224;LPTB LPTB1+LPTBP9*LPTR1\'r'---------------------- 3-29 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A8S.1 22S:LPTBFV ==LPTB1FV+LPTBP9 226:PPVAL ==LPTB1FV+PTBP9 227:RLPT1 =C18A+C18B*LPTB1(-1)+C18C*PTBP9(-1)+C18D*D61.73 228:RLPT ==RLPT1+RLPTX 229:LOG(RLOT*1000/POP(-1»=C31A+C31B*LOG(PI(-1)*1000/POP(-1» Local Transfers The programs and formulas used to provide local government assistance have changed considerably in recent years,making modeling of these programs difficult·.Preliminary values for all types of local transfers are calculated based upon the formulas .currently used..to_determine transfer..amounts ..(suffix4J...Theseare subsequently adjusted using RATI01 for consistency with total state operating expenditures. Total transfers (RLT99)consist of five categories as follows: tax sharing (RLTT9),revenue sharing (RLTRS),education (RLTE99), miscellaneous (RLTMS),and exogenous (RLTX). The most important shared tax is a portion (PESLTC)of the corporate tax before 1982.After 1981,this program was replaced by the municipal assistance program (RLTMA).Other shared taxes are portions of ad valorem taxes (RLTVS)and other taxes (RLTOT), primarily the fish processing taxes. State local revenue sharing (RLTRS)is a separate category of assistance.Miscellaneous transfers (RLTMS)is another which....·············-""currenEIy-Is"composed of "Ehe munfcIpalcapf£aT·granfs(tiLTMCAPr: Educational transfers is the largest category (RLTE99), consisting of primary and secondary education transfers (RLTEA)and other (nonprimary and nonsecondary)education transfers (RLTEB). Primary and secondary education transfers are further divided into the following categories:cigarette tax transfers (RLTEC), Foundation program transfers (RLTEF),transportation transfers (RLTET),and other education tt:'l:l.n~[~t:"s(RJ,.'l'J.!:O).Toe Foundation program is the basic program in support of education,and it is a function of the number of students (ADMSD)and the basic instructional unit allotment (BIU)which is a basic funding level. The number of students is calculated for district schools (ADMDIS) and for the rural educational attendance area schools (ADMREA). 3-30 l ,! I I I 1 j ) I '1 .1 j Institute of Social and Economic,Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 230:RLTCS4 =IF YR GT 1981 THEN 0 ELSE PESLTC*RTCS1 231:RLTVS4 =C63A+C63B*RTVS 232:RLTOT4 ==PESLT*RTOTS 233:RLTMA4 =IF YR LE 1983 THEN RLTMA6 ELSE RLTMA(-l)1 PDRPI(-l)/POP(-l)*POP*PDRPI 234:RLTT94 =RLTVS4+RLTOT4+RLTCS4+RLTMA4 235:RLTRS4 =IF YR LE 1983 THEN RLTRS6 ELSE RLTRS(-l)* (l+GRUSCPI+GRDIRrU) 236:RLTMS =RLTMCAP 237:RLTEC4 ==PECIG*RTCIS 238:ADMDIS ==PAD1*POPSKUL(-1) 239:ADMREA ==PAD2*POPSKUL(-1) 240:ADMSD =ADMDIS+ADMREA 241:BIU =IF YR LE 1983 THEN BIU6 ELSE BIU(-l)*(l+GRUSCPI) 242:RLTEF4 =C36A+C36F*D81.00+D71.00*C36B+BIU*C36C+C36D*ADMSD 243:RLTET4 =(POP/POP(-l)+PDRPI/PDRPI(-l)-l)*RLTET(-l) 244:RLTE04 =RLTEO(-l)*(l+GRUSCPI+GRDIRPU) 245:RLTEA4 ==RLTEC4+RLTEF4+RLTET4+RLTE04 246:RLTEB4 =IF YR LE 1983 THEN RLTEB6 ELSE RLTEB(-l)* (l+GRUSCPI+GRDIRPU) I I 247:RLTE994 =RLTEA4+RLTEB4 j 248:RLTCS =RLTCS4*RATI01 249:RLTVS ==RLTVS4*RATI01 250:RLTOT ==RLTOT4*RATI01 251:RLTMA =RLTMA4*RATI01 252:RLTEC ==RLTEC4*RATI01 253:RLTEF ==RLTEF4*RATI01 3-31 Institute of Social and Economic Research' MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 254:RLTET =RLTET4*RATIOI 255:RLTEO =RLTE04*RATIO~ 256:RLTEA ==RLTEA4*RATIOI 257:RLTEB =RLTEB4*RATIOI 258:RLT99 =RLTT9+RLTRS+RLTE99+RLTMS+RLTX other Local Revenues other local revenues consist of federal transfers (RLTF),special petroleum-related federal transfers (RLTFPX),and miscellaneous fees and charges (RLMC).The level of miscellaneous fees and charges is set to maintain a zero balance on current account for local government accounts. 274:RLTF =RLTF(-l)*(l+GRUSCPI+GRDIRPU) 275:RL991 ==RLPT+RLOT+RLT99+RLTF+RLTFPX 277:RL99 ==RL991+RLMC Local Government Expenditures Total local government expenditures (EL99)consist of several components--education expenditures (ELED),non-education ._._.•••••••0 ._ .··--expend-n:l.ires-(ELNEDl),--and--debt--·serviceexpenditures--(not-ine-luding ····~--------·_·t.h·o·se-provided--bT·state-government++ELBD·)-as-we-l-l-as.-exogenous.. state-local transfers (RLTX),and federal-local petroleum-related transfers (RLTFPX).Education expenditures are the sum of revenues from state-local transfers (RLTE99)and those from local sources (ELEDl).Local education expenditures from own sources are a function of personal income net of "enclave"employment income. Non-education expenditures are determined in real ..:t:,et"I\ls._as a function of wealth and non-education transfers.Debt service is a function of the level of outstanding genet:'a16bligation bonds (GOBONDL). The capital portion of the education component of the budget (ELEDCP)is a function of education expenditures in total (ELED). The amount of capital expenditures financed by general obligation bonds grows with prices and per capita income. 3-32 j i ;.1 ) j ) ! .J I j j J Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A8S.1 Local government personnel expenditures (ELPERS)is calculated from total local expenditures net of education capital expenditures, miscellaneous transfers,and debt service expenditures.From this, local government wages and salaries (WSGL)is calculated. Total state and local government expenditures (SLGEXP)are the sum of state and local expenditures net of state-local transfers. Local (BALOCAL)and combined state and local (BALLANDS)current account balances are calculated. 269:ELED1 =C11A+C11B*PI3(-1) 270:ELED =RLTE99+ELED1 271:ELBD =C14A+C14C*D61.77*GOBONDL(-1)+C14B*GOBONDL(-1) 272:EL99 =ELED+ELNED1+ELBD+RLTX+RLTFPX 273:ELNED1*100/PDRPI =C16A+C16B*WEALTH+C16C*(RLTRS+RLTT9+ RLTMS)/PDRPI 278:.ELEDCP =-C1SA+C1SB*ELED 279:ELPERS =C12A+C12B*(EL99-ELEDCP-RLTMS-ELBD) 280:WSGL =(IF YR EQ 1983 THEN 1.23 ELSE (IF YR EQ 1984 THEN 1.23 ELSE (IF YR EQ 1985 THEN 1.27 ELSE PCWS2»)*ELPERS 281:GOBONDL =GOBONDL(-l)*(l+GRUSCPI+GRDIRPU) 282:SLGEXP ==EX99S+EL99-RLT99 283:BALOCAL ==RL99-(EL99-ELBD) 284:BALLANDS ==BALOCAL+BALCAB 3-33 ,I _..J Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A8S.1 4.Description of the Demographic Module of the MAP Economic Model 4.1.Summary The population module of the Alaska economic model (Figure 3) provides annual forecasts of total population and the detailed population characteristics for the State of Alaska,shown in Table 7.Population in each year is estimated as an average annual value which is determined by the sum of natural increase of the previous year's population and net immigration.The former is based upon age-sex-race-specific fertility and mortality rates.The latter is based primarily upon a stochastically determined equation relating net immigration to the change in employment opportunities in Alaska,Alaskan unemployment,and real wage levels relative to the U.S.average.This specification is based upon the theory that migration flows clear regional labor markets,with people moving into regions where employment opportunities are increasing faster than local supplies can satisfy them and out of economically declining regions.A small element of out-migration of the elderly occurs independently of employment opportunities. The three main components of population...:.-Native,military,and civilian non-Native--each receive separate treatment because of different characteristics.The Native population can only migrate out of Alaska and has different fertility and mortality ra.tes than do civilian non-Natives.The military population consists of armed forces personnel and military dependents.Births,death,and net migration are not calculated for this component of the population. Its age-sex structure essentially remains constant in simulation, independent of the level of this element of population,as each year those leaving are replaced by individuals with identical characteristics. Total Population.Total population is the sum of the three components of the population which are treated individually because of different characteristics.These components are civilian/non- Native population,Native population,and military population which is armed forces personnel plus military dependents.Each of the components of the population is divided into 30 age-sex cohorts. The population under 1 year is the first cohort for each sex,and the 6S-and-over population is cohort 1S.Cohort 2 is the population aged 1 through 4 years;all others span five years. The military population distribution is constant at 1980 values. Thus,the age-sex structure of both the armed forces personnel and the military dependents does not change over time,nor does the ratio of military dependents to armed forces personnel.Changes in 4-1 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A8S.1 FIGURE 3.MAP ECONOMIC POPULATION MODULE ! J J I r I I I I I I I I I Labor Force Total Employment Economic Model Real Wage Relative to U.S. Lo _ Alaska Populatio·r;- ------,Age-Sex Distributionr---- I I I I I I I I I I· 1 I 4-2 l 1 r TABLE 7. Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A8S.1 DEMOGRAPHIC MODEL OUTPUT 1.II, POP CNNTOT NATTOT POPM POPC POPAVAGE POPij CNNPij NATPij BTOT DTOT POPNI9 C~ BTHTOT DTHINF DTHTOT NATINC E~ NBTHTOT NDTHINF NDTHTOT NNATINC POPNE POPMIG MIGOUT MIGIN Population Aggregates total Alaska population total Alaska civilian non-Native population total Alaska Native population (civilian) Alaska active duty military personnel Alaska population not in military service average age of Alaska population total Alaska population in cohort 1J Alaska civilian non-Native population in cohort ij Alaska Native population in cohort ij total Alaska civilian births total Alaska civilian deaths total Alaska civilian natural increase Civilian Non-Native Natural Increase Alaska civilian non-Native population in cohort ij before migration total Alaska civilian non-Native births to civilian population Alaska infant civilian non-Native deaths total Alaska civilian non-Native deaths Alaska civilian non-Native natural increase (Civilian)Native Natural Increase Alaska Native population in cohort ij before migration total Alaska Native births Alaska Native infant deaths total Alaska Native deaths Alaska Native natural increase Alaska Native enrollment population Civilian Migration total net civilian migration to'Alaska exogenous civilian migration to Alaska endogenous civilian migration to Alaska 4-3 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 ,J " TABLE 7 (continued) PLFDOMC PLFDOMN PLFDOMM PLFD9 LF UNEMP WR.AK.US U.AK.US UNEMRATE HH HHC HHN HHM ..........-CHHiJ NHHij HHij Labor Force and Unemployment Alaska potential civilian non-Native labor force (population age 15 to 64) Alaska potential civilian Native labor force Alaska potential military labor force (military dependents age 15 to 64,active~duty military are excluded) total Alaska potential civilian labor force total Alaska civilian labor force Alaska unemployed change in the relative real wage rate,Alaska to U.S. relative unemployment rate,Alaska to U.S. Alaska unemployment rate Households total Alaska households total Alaska civilian non-Native households total Alaska civilian Native households total Alaska military households AlasJ~a.JlousehQ.lQsh~~c3.fa.QQ~c.iy~.!~a.1'l_1'l~1'l=!fa.t i~~l'~~s on13 _ in cohort ij Alaska households headed by civilian Native persons in cohort ij total Alaska households headed by persons in cohort ij Population in Group Quarters I '\ 1 -I '/ ~..~_-.---_.-.-._._-~.--_.•..-"--_._." POPCGQ l\.Ia:ska-·cIvrrran'non=Na£ive-popuTijftToo--r-rt--groui:rquare-ers---' -----.-~-POPMGQ----Al-asKl:cttf1Ltt-ary-p·opu-tat:i:on-in-group-quarters-in-];980----- POPNGQ Alaska Native population in group quarters POPGQ total Alaska population in group quarters HHSIZEM HHSIZEN HHSIZEC HHSIZE Average Household Size average Alaska military household size average Alaska-Native-househo ld·size··----_. average Alaska civilian non-Native household size average Alaska household size,all households 4-4 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 TABLE 7 (continued) r POPSKUL POPKIDS POPGER POPADS POP.AD POP.KID POP.GER POP.MIL POP.NAT POP.CIV Special Population Aggregates total Alaska population age 5-19 total Alaska population under 15 total Alaska population 65 and over total Alaska population age 15-64 Population Ratios ratio of Alaska population 15-64 to total population ratio of Alaska population under 15 to total population ratio of Alaska population 65 and over to total population ratio of Alaska military and military dependents to total population ratio of Alaska Native population to total population ratio of Alaska civilian non-Native population to total population Birth and Death Rates NCBR Alaska crude Native birth rate (per thousand) NCDR Alaska crude Native death rate CBR Alaska crude civilian non-Native birth rate CDR Alaska crude civilian non~Native death rate BCRUDE Alaska crude civilian birth rate DCRUDE Alaska crude civilian death rate 4-5 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A8S.1 military employment cause total military population and each age-sex cohort to change proportionately.1 Civilian/Non-Native Natural Increase.Each year,a percentage of individuals within each cohort die,and another percentage move into the next cohort as people age.The aging process applies to all individuals within a cohort,and the result of this process is an "intermediate cohort..to which migrants must be added to arrive at the final cohort value for the new year. The population of the 0-1-aged cohort is determined by the number of births,which is the sum of cohort-specific fertility rates applied to the female population surviving from the previous year.While mortality rates change very slowly,fertility rates are affected by a number of socioeconomic variables.Since precise relationships cannot be determined for Alaskan fertility rates, these are held constant in the model for the proj ection period.A percentage of infants do not survive,and a specific sex division of births is applied to total births. From these calculations,both infant deaths and total deaths can be calculated as sums.Finally,natural increase is the ,excess of births over deaths. Civilian/Non-Native Migration.Net immigration is a function of ....the...y:ear=to,.-:y:ear~..c.hang~.injb&Jevel of total Alaskan civilian employment,the percentage change in the lagged value of the Alaskan-U.S.ratio of real weekly earnings,and the lagged ratio of U.S.-to-Alaska unemployment rates.Migrants,according to this formulation,will be drawn to Alaska in response to a tightening of the Alaskan labor market,indicated by low unemployment rates and rising real wages.Higher relative unemployment rates and declining real wages would cause net immigration to be negative. ............····Net ··.i.mmigrationIs·dIstrlbufecfamong ..the age-sexcohort·s ....by a····. -two-step·'process:···Fn··~·fe-;···-a··p·erc·entage··of·each···cohort-··of--bhe·--·-········· population leaves the state independent of the overall amount of net migration.The remainder of net migration is allocated among all the cohorts on the basis of a percentage of total net migration. (This remainder can be a negative number.)Net migration to Alaska is biased toward young males relative to the U.S.average. Total civilian/non-Native population is finally calculated by surillitirig the population in each cohort,including the results of the migration process during the year. \ .j I I) J .( I.:..·, 1 The variable MILPCT distribution to correspond particular year. scales the 1980 military population to total military population in any 4-6 II ! Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 Net Native Population.As with the civilian/non-Native population,a percentage of individuals die each year within each cohort,and a percentage age into the next cohort.Native births are the sum of cohorts of the female population of child-bearing age times the fertility rate for Natives within each cohort.Total Native births are allocated between the sexes and reduced by the percentage of Native infant deaths by sex.Native infant deaths are the difference between total births and infant deaths,and total Native deaths include those of all cohorts.Native natural increase is the excess of births over deaths.The Native population migrates out of Alaska at a rate independent of the level of economic activity. Two distinct definitions of the total Native population are calculated.The first is based upon Native self-enumeration data from the 1980 Census.This forms the basis for the age-sex distribution of the Native population.A second larger number is calculated from the number of enrollees for the twelve Native corporations residing in the state.This latter concept of Native population is assumed to grow at the same rate as the census-based Native population. Households.Households are determined by applying age-sex-race- specific headship rates to each population cohort after subtracting the population in group housing. 4.2.Demographic Module Detail Total.Population [i =M,F and j =2 to 15] 601:POP =CNNTOT+NATTOT+MILPCT*(AFTOT+MDTOT) 602:POPC =POP-POPM 603-632:POPij ==CNNPij+NATPij+MILPCT*MILij Civilian/Non-Native Natural Increase 466-493:Cij ==Gj*Sij*CNNPij(-1)+(1-Gj-1)*si,j-1*CNNPi,j-1(-1) 11 494:BTHTOT --(L (CFj*FERTj))-BADD j=4 495:CM1 --SEXDIV*BTHTOT*SURINFM 4-7 Institute of Social . and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 '( I ) /~ 496:CFl ==(I-SEXDIV)*BTHTOT*SURINFF 497:DTHINF ==BTHTOT-CMI-CFl 15 498:DTHTOT ==DTHINF+L L (Cij(-I)*(I-sij» i=M,F j=1 499:NAT INC ==BTHTOT-DTHTOT (Civilian)Native Natural Increase 531-558:NCij ==Gj*NSij*NATPij(-I)+(I-Gj-l)*NSi,j-l*NATPi,j-l(-I) 11 559:NBTHTOT --(L (NCFj*NFERTj))+BADD j=4 560:NCMl ==NSEXDIV*NBTHTOT*NSURINFM 561:NCFl ==(I-NSEXDIV)*NBTHTOT*NSURINFF 562-591:NATPij =NCij*(I+NMij) •592:NDTHINF ==NBTHTOT-NCMl~NCFl 15 593:NDTHTOT ==NDTHINF+L L (NCij(-I)*(I-NSij» i=M,F j=1 --"S-94':"NATTOT -r{-NA-TPi~ i=M,F j=1 595:POPNE =POPNE(-I)*NATTOT/NATTOT(-I) 596:NNATINC ==NBTHTOT-NDTHTOT Civilian Migration and Total Civilian Population 663:POPMIG =CMIGl+CMIG2*I/U.AK.US(-I)+CMIG3*WR.AK.US(-I)+ CMIG4*DELEMP 4-8 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 15 597:MIGOUT =2 2 «OEMij*Cij)+(NMij*NCij» i=M,F j=1 598:MIGIN =POPMIG-MIGOUT 500-529:CNNPij =MIGIN*Mij+Cij*(1+0EMij) 15 530:CNNTOT =2 2 CNNPij i=M,F j=1 Labor Force and Unemployment 14 653:PLFDOMC --2 2 CNNPij i j=5 14 654:PLFDOMM ==2 2 NATPij i j=5 14 655:PLFDOMM ==MILPCT *(2 2 MILij)-AFTOT i j=5 656:PLFD9 ==PLFDOMC+PLFDOMN+PLFDOMM 657:LF ==LAFPRT*PLFD9 658:UNEMP ==LF-EM96 659:UNEMRATE ==UNEMP/LF 660:U.AK.US ==UNEMP/LF/U.US 661:DELEMP ==EM96-EM96(-I) 662:WR.AK.US ==LOG(R.WR97)-LOG(WEUS*100/PDUSCPI)-(LOG(R.WR97(-I»- LOG(WEUS(-I)*100/PDUSCPI(-I») Military population 599:POPM ==EMGM/MILRAT 600:MILPCT =POPM/AFTOT 4-9 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A8S.1 Natural Increase 633:BTOT ==BTHTOT+NBTHTOT 634:DTOT ==DTHTOT+NDTHTOT 63S:POPNI9 ==BTOT-DTOT Birth and Death Rates 636:NCBR ==NBTHTOT/NATTOT*1000 637:NCDR ==NDTHTOT/NATTOT*1000 638:CBR ==BTHTOT/CNNTOT*1000 639:CDR ==DTHTOT/CNNTOT*1000 640:BCRUDE ==BTOT/(CNNTOT+NATTOT)*1000 641:DCRUDE ==DTOT/(CNNTOT+NATTOT)*1000 Population Aggregates ~~--~--~-~~-~~-~-~~--------------- 642:POPSKUL ==POPM3+POPM4+POPMs+POPF3+POPF4+POPFS- 643:POPKIDS ==POPSKUL+POPM1+POPM2+POPF1+POPF2-POPMS-POPFS 644:POPGER =POPM1S+POPF1S 64S:POPADS ==POP-POPKIDS-POPGER --~--6-S2-:--~POPAVAGE-=f::::--O-;-S~*'(-(-P0PIH+P0PF-1-)-I-POP-}+3*~(-(-FOFM2-+P-OFF-2->-L_ POP)+7.S*«POPM3+POPF3)/POP)+12.S*«POPM4+POPF4)1 POP)+17.S*«POPMS+POPFS)/POP)+22.S*«POPM6+POPF6)1 POP)+27.S*«POPM7+POPF7)/POP)+32.S*«POPM8+POPF8)1 POP)+37.S*«POPM9+POPF9)/POP)+42.S*«POPM10+POPFIO)1 POP)+47.S*«POPM11+POPF11)/POP)+S2.S*«POPM12+POPF12)1 POP)+S 7.S*((POPM13+POPF13)/POP)+62 .5~((POI'~rl.!J±J:lQJ:lF14)~.. POP)+67.S*«POPM1S+POPF1S)/POP) 4-10 ,J I I ! I j 'j J \ 1 ') ,r f I ! ! j I Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A8S.1 Households A household is a living unit of one of two types:a family or an individual or group of individuals,not related,who are living as a unit.The number of households is a function of both the level of population and its age-sex distribution.The age-sex distribution of the population is important because the rate at which people form households differs across age-sex cohorts.This household formation module accounts for both of these influences of population on household formation. The household formation module is an accounting model which depends on a set of assumptions about the age-sex cohort-specific rates of household formation,known as headship rates,and changes in those rates.The module is based on the assumption that the social,economic,and life-cycle factors which determine the formation of households can be described by a set of headship rates.Headship rates describe the probability that a person in a particular cohort is a household head. The module requires input from the population module in the form of the projected size and age-sex distribution of the population. The total number of households in the state (HH)is equal to the number of households summed across age and sex cohorts. 745:HH =~~HHij ij The total number of households in sex cohort i and age cohort j (HHij)describes the number of households with household head or primary individual in the ith sex and jth age cohort.This total is,in turn,composed of three components:the number of civilian/ non-Native households in cohort ij (CHHij),the number of Native households in cohort ij (NHHij),and the number of military households in cohort ij (MHHij). 675+:HHij =CHHij+NHHij+MHHij*MILPCT The number of civilian and Native households in each cohort is a function of the population and headship rate for the cohort.The number of households in any cohort equals the cohort-specific headship rate multiplied by the cohort population (CNNPij for civilian/non-Natives and NATPij for Natives)net of the proportion of the population in group quarters (CPGQij for civilian/non-Natives and NPGQij for Natives). 673+:CHHij =CNNPij*(1-CPGQij)*(HHRij+RCij/TP*(YR-1980» 674+:NHHij =NATPij*(l-NPGQij)(NHHRij+NRCij/NTP*(YR-1980» 4-11 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 The headship rates have changed historically and are expe~ted to continue to vary.The headship rates are assumed to approach a specified target over a specified time period.Thus RCij (NRCij)is the specified target change for non-Natives (Natives)and TP (NTP) is the time period in which the change is assumed to take place while HHRij and NHHRij are 1980 headship rates.1 The cohort distribution of military households (MHHij)is assumed to remain constant throughout the projection period.The number of military households equals the number in 1980,multiplied by the ratio of current year to 1980 active duty military (MILPCT). The model calculates Native,civilian/non-Native,and total population in group quarters. 746:POPCGQ ==~~(CNNPij*CPGQij) ij 747:POPNGQ --~~(NATPij*NPGQij) ij 1 748:POPGQ --POPNGQ+POPCGQ+POPMGQ*MILPCT Total households is also determined for Native, _________!il_~~!~~!l:ind Il\ilit:~t.'~_~_~~ments of the population. 749:HHC ==~~CHHij ij 750:HHN _....~~·NHHij ij 751:HHM ==MILPCT *LL MHHij iJ civilian non- .J ! f The model calculates average household size for Natives, civilian/non-Natives,military,and total population. 752:HHSIZEN --(NATTOT-POPNGQ)/HHN 753 HHSIZEC (CNNTOT'-"POPCGQ)/HHC 754:HHSIZEM ==MILPCT*(AFTOT+MDTOT-POPMGQ)/HHM 755:HHSIZE ==(POP-POPGQ)/HH 1Because of the structure of these equations, which the rates change must be set to exceed simulations. 4-12 the period over the length of Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 5.Input Variables A value fo~each of these variables for each year of simulation must be entered by the use~. 5.1.Policy Inputs Values for these variables are likely to change from one simulation to the next. Employment *EMAGRI *EMCNX1 *EMCNX2 *EMFISH *EMGC *EMGM *EMMX1 *EMMX2 *EMP9 *EMT9X agriculture high wage (enclave)exogenous construction normal wage exogenous construction fish harvesting civilian federal government military active duty high wage exogenous manufacturing sectoral average wage exogenous manufacturing mining (including petroleum) exogenous part of transportation State Expenditures APPFCONX EXDFPCNT EXDF1 EXGFOPSX EXPFCONX EXPFDIST EXPFI EXPFTOGF EXSAVX EXSPCAP EXSPLITX EXSUBSX EXSUB1 EXSUB2 LBONDI LFED1 LGF1 general fund appropriations to the Permanent Fund development fund withdrawal rate development fund contribution rate exogenous general fund operating expenditures ext~aordinary Permanent Fund cont~ibution Permanent Fund distribution rate Permanent Fund contribution rate percent of Permanent Fund earnings transferred to the general fund savings out of current revenues special capital expenditures operation expenditures as a proportion of total exogenous subsidy level stimulative effect of state subsidies on construction industry stimulative effect of state subsidies on consumer spending proportion of state general obligation bonds for highways p~oportion of federal capital g~ants for highways proportion of state general fund capital expenditures for highways *May be provided by scenario generator model if desi~ed. 5-1 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A8S.! Growth Rates a GRDIRPU GRRWEUS GRUSCPI U.S.disposable income per capita U.S.real average weekly earnings U.S.consumer price index Local Revenues RLPTX RLTFPX RLTMCAP RLTX exogenous property taxes petroleum-related federal transfers municipal capital grants from state to local government unspecified state-local transfers State Petroleum Revenues *RPBS RPEN *RPPS *RPRY *RPTS RP9X RSFDNPX *RTCSPX bonus payments rental payments property taxes royalties severance taxes unspecified revenues petroleum-related federal-shared revenues petroleum corporate income tax .\ *M.ay be provided by scenario generator model if desired. ........State Nonpetro1eum Revenues aotlie):'growth fates used only with certain fisca.1rule options are as follows: I 1 1 1\ \ I J exogenous federal-state transfers exogenous corporate income tax pseudo labor force participation rate tourist visitors --·U·~·S~--·unemploymentrate-"---. ---'-exogenous-large-proJect--manu·f.ac-tut'-ing- real gross state product GREXCAP -state capital expenditures GREXOPS -state operating expenditures GRRPCEX -real per capita state expenditures GRSSCP -state per capita capital stock M.iscellaneouS RSFDNX RTCSX LAFPRT *TOURIST.....--.------.--.--uus-- ----------XnOc-l· S-2 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A8S.1 S.2.Other Exogenous Inputs Values for these variables are less likely to vary across simulations. Dununy Variables Dgg a dununy variable with a value of unity in the year gg only .; Dgg.hh. DggDECj a dununy variable with a value of unity from year gg to year hh a dununy variable with a value of unity in year gg and declining to zero in j years Initial Adjustment Variables RSIP5 initial adjustment to Permanent Fund earnings level Initial Values BALgg6 BIU6 known historical values for the balance in the state fund gg known historical values for basic instructional unit for allocating state education funds-to districts EXaaa6 known historical category aaa values for state expenditure PDUSCPI6 known historical values for USCPI PITRAN6 known historical values for transfers component of personal income PR.DPIU6 known historical values for real per capita disposable income in u.S. RLTEB6 known historical values for state aid to local government for education net of district and REAA aid RLTMA6 known historical values for state-local transfers under municipal assistance -----------iRIiLL!T;I;:RRS86-6--~knaeo.w\'m'a_llhc1icss'-tt.,Qo.-r;r!.ii,(lc~al_Jl~'1a_lu.es_forst at e loc a 1 revenu e shar ing 5-3 Institute of Social ;) and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 'j RMISRES6 known historical values for miscellaneous restricted general fund revenues RSFDN6 RSIG6 RTOTS6 VAEX6 WEUS6 known historical values for total federal grants-in- aid to state general fund known historical values for state general fund interest known historical values for other state taxes (fiduciary,inheritance,estate,mining,conservation, prepaid,and fish taxes) known historical values for exemption value on federal income tax known historical values for U.S.average weekly earnings .1 Impact Variables State Personal Income Tax Variables BASaaaa or BASEaaaa RTISXX TCRED TXBASE TXCRPC TXPTXX TXRT values from a previously run "base case"used in certain impact study calculations adjustment of disposable income'to cover lag in refund of state personal income taxes after repeal individual tax credit beginning after 12/31/77 change in the floor of personal income tax ratescnedtile----.----.-- state personal income tax credit adjustment allows model user to withold from state expenditures a portion of any personal income tax reduction percentage change in state personal income tax rate I 1 ,! Native Income Variables ANCSA payment to government Act (ANCSA) Alaska Natives by under Alaska Na tive 5-4 federal Claims and state Settlement EMNATX NCBP NCRP PCNCl Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.l Native employment rate obtained from the income distribution model bonus income to Natives from lease sales on Native lands Native recurrent income from petroleum development on Native lands proportion of ANCSA payments paid directly to ind,ividuals PCNC2 proportion of development on individuals recurring income from petroleum Native lands paid directly to PCNC3 RNATX SANCSA SANCSAX proportion of earnings on Native Corporation accumulated capital paid directly to individuals Native personal income calculated using the income distribution model payment to Alaska Natives by state government under ANCSA special state appropriation to payoff ANSCA debt Miscellaneous Exogenous Variables BADD adjustment factor to account for birth of Native children to non-Native women (see demographic module) BALGFUNA state general appropriations fund balance unavailable for EMAUN EXDSSX forestry and unclassified employment annual debt service payment to service general obliga- tion bonds outstanding at beginning of simulation period EXPFDVXl accounting adjustment to Permanent Fund retained earnings in early years EXPFDVX2 accounting adjustment to Permanent Fund dividend in early years ------------'EItl'XlfJ!f'JlR'RNSPI sta:ee Permanent Fund dividends in 1982 al.J..tl"'dl----JlI.-':9gS)..;3)-----_ incorporated in state personal income 5-5 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 <.-1' EXTRNSX Permanent Fund dividend distribution funded through the general fund GODTX general obligation bonded indebtedness of the state from debt incurred before start of simulation LPTRAT percentage of pipeline property within local jurisdictions actually subject to local tax because of limitations imposed by state statutes I YR year state Capital Stock PIPADJ ratio of "enclave"to regular construction wage rate j I ( i " ! ',1 ( proportion of state-funded municipal capital grants spent of capital projects proportion.of.funding~_o_f~~tate ~gpital~P'r()jects type a from initial funding source type c .---_.,... OMba rate of operations and maintenance cost for state capital stock type a from funding source b RCDEPa RSFDNCAX federal grants-in-aid to state general fund for capi- tal expenditures LMUNCAP PCOLART cost of living differential for federal employees P9PTPER percentage of petroleum property Which is taxable by state which falls within local taxing jurisdiction .·Lca REPba rate of replacement of state capital stock type a from funding source b I :.j 5-6 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A8S.1 6.Variable and Parameter Name Conventions 6.1.Prefixes A prefix not followed by a period indicates a variable within a general category. BALaaa state government fund balance BASaaaa base level for a variable (used only in certain impact analyses) CEaaN proportion of Native employment in industry aa D.aa.aa dummy variable with a value of unity for the indicated range of years DPIaaa disposable personal income ELaaa local government expenditure EMaaa employment EXaaa state government expenditure variable EXPRaaa state government personnel expenditures GRaaa growth rate NCaaa Native claims variable NEMaaN Native employment NWSaaN Native wages and salaries PDaaa price index PIaaa personal income POPaaa popUlation aggregate Raaa state government revenue (except RLaaa) RLaaa local government revenue UNaaa unemployment WRaaa average annual wage rate 6-1 WRGaa WSaaa XXaaa Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984.Model A8S.1 average annual wage rate growth rate wages and salaries gross product I .J A prefix followed by a period and a variable name indicates the variable is operated on in the manner dictated by the prefix. DF.aaaa variable deflated to 1984 base-year dollars (PDRPIBAS is base-year index) DFP.aaa variable deflated to 1984 per capita base-year dollars EM.aaaa variable is a proportion of total employment (EM99) EX.aaaa variable is a proportion of total state general fund expenditures (EXGF)1) POP.aaa variable is a proportion of population (POP) P.aaa variable in per capita terms (POP) RL99.aaa variable is a proportion of total local revenues (RL99) -~----PI.-aaaa -vat"-iable is-apl'.:'opot"-tion-of--pe!.!sonalincome-CPI) ! I ,"\-- ( j I ( I il variable is deflated to 1967 US price level (PDRPI) .aaa varrab-re-~:fs~(fHference-calculaEed--from a previoUslY run simulation with outputs specified by exogenous variables with prefix BAS R.aaa EXBM.aaa variable is a proportion of total state general fund expenditures (EXGFBM) RS .aaaa variable is a proportion of total state general and Permanent Fund revenues (R99S) INX.aa a specially constructed variable for monitoring model simulation behavior G.aaa change in the level of the variable from the previous year PR.aaa variable in real per capita terms (deflated using PDRPI where 1967 US =100) RSBM.aaa variable is a proportion of unrestricted state general fund revenues (RSGFBM) 6-2 :1 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation I I December 1984,Model A8S.1 i 6.2.Suffixes a.Industries:used with employment (EMaa),wage rate (WRaa), wages and salaries (WSaa),and gross state product (XXaa). AGRI AUN A9 CM CN CNNP CNP CU DR .DW D9 FI FISH AFISH GA GC GF GL GM GS GSFY M9 MX1 MX2 MO PRO PROFIS PU P9 S9 SB SP SUP TCU T9 DTOUR STOUR TTOUR Agriculture Forestry and Unclassified Agriculture-Forestry-Fishery Communications Construction Nonpipeline Construction Pipeline Construction (Premium Wage,Enclave) Communications Retail Trade Wholesale Trade Total Trade Finance-Insurance-Real Estate Fish Harvesting Fish Harvesting-Wages and Salary Component State and Local Government Federal Civilian·Government Federal Government (Military plus Civilian) Local Government Military State Government State Government (Fiscal Year) Manufacturing Exogenous Premium Wage Manufacturing Exogenous Normal Wage Manufacturing Endogenous Manufacturing Proprietor Proprietor-Fish Harvesting Component Public Utilities Mining Total Services Business Services SUP +TCU Trade,Finance,Service Transport,Communication,Public utilities Transportation Tourism-Retail Trade Tourism-Services Tourism-Transportation 6-3 96 97 98 99 NT Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 Total Civilian (Non-Ag.Wage &Salary plus Proprietors) Total Non-Ag.Wage and Salary Total Non-Ag.Wage &Salary Plus Military Grand Total Non-Tourism I \ b.Components of Income:used with personal income (Plaa) c.State Expenditures by major program categories:used with ~e:C-:xp~e-nC:-(f[t:ures (EXaa)··ana persofinel-:exlrendtturestEXPRaa~)· ..--.-.--....,.----.-GF-BM----- ----------Un-res-t-F-ic-ted--Gene-I!a-l··--,Fund---" ~~-------..._....~~_.--...---.-.DF-~--_.D.ev:.elo.pment_FJ.ln.tL(hY"Pothet ical)........~~.._...____~_~_._. PF Permanent Fund JUS Justice NRS Natural Resources DIR OLI PRO PR01 PROF RADJ SSC TRAN WS 3 8 CDS EDS GGS HES GF PPS SSS TRS UA Dividends,Interest,Rent Other Labor Income Proprietor Income Nonfishing Proprietor Income Fishery Proprietor Income Residence Adjustment Personal Contributions to Social Security Transfers WageS and Salaries Personal Income Net of Enclave Employment Income Personal Income plus Residence Adjustment Development Education General.Government Health and Social Services General Fund Public Protection Social Services Transportation University oLAla,;:;kl'il,.. 6=4 l l .j ] l j I J ! ,! Institute of Social and Economic Research HAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 d.Population Cohorts F Female M Male 1 Under 1 Year of Age 2 1 -4 years 3 5 -9 years 4 10 14 years 5 15 -19 years 6 20 -24 years 7 25 -29 years 8 30 -34 years 9 35 -39 years 10 40 -44 years 11 45 -49 years 12 50 -54 years 13 55 -.59 years 14 60 -64 years 15 65 years and Older e.Special Suffixes 2 a component of a total variable 4 a preliminary estimate of the value for a variable prior to application of a ratio 5 an increment to a model-determined value 6 an exogenous initial value 8 a component of a total variable 99 or 9 a grand total X an exogenous variable J 1 a component of a total variable 6-5 7.Parameter Values,Definitions,and Sources 7.1.Economic and Fiscal Modules 7-1 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model ASS.1 Variable EXLIM82 EXOMCOST EXOPSIMP Value Definition;Units 2500 constitutionally mandated 1982 spending limit;million $ .15 annual operations and maintenance cost of incremental state capital stock as a percentage of original cost 7.678 per capita impact state operation expenditure used with fiscal rule EXRl4 Institute of Social and Economic Research HAP Documentation December 1984,Model ASS.1 Historical Data Source current law author's estimate Goldsmith and Mogford,The Relation- ship Between the Alaska Natural Gas Pipeline and State and local Government Expenditures J J I l j I EXPF2 EXPF3 .162 portion of Permanent Fund dividend income not entering purchasing power expression;percent .31 portion of Permanent Fund dividend income not subject to personal income tax;percent Knapp et a1.,The Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend Program:Economic Effects and Public Attitudes Knapp et a1.,The Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend Program:Economic Effects and Public Attitudes EXRl1 o policy switch for detennination of state expenditure growth based .primarily upon aggregate demand...varlab 1es,"Tncfudfngprfces~.. population,and income set by model user;default value zero ] I j ( ! jsetbymodeluser;default value zero set by model user;default value zero set by model user;default value...........zero·..·'...- o policy switch for detennination of state expenditure growth based upon a specified expenditure level per ·..·impact i ndivi dua.1(fol"use·i n·..c • impact analysis) o policy switch for detennination of state expenditure growth based upon a specified exogenous growth rate o policy switch for detennination of ·"···state·expenditure-growth·based·upon· ·---------a-specif·ied-growth-rate-i·n-rea·11---- per capita operating expenditures and real per capita level of capital stock EXRl4 EXRl2 EXRl3 7-2 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model ASS.1 Variable Value Definition;Units Historical Data Source EXRL40P °policy switch used with EXRL4 with set by model user;default value value of one if enclave construction zero employment not counted in impact population EXRLS policy switch for detennination of set by model user;default value state expenditure growth based upon one constitutionally imposed spending limit EXRLOP6 °policy switch for detennination of set by model user;default value II state operating expenditure growth zero based upon annual change in level of general fund balance EXRLOP7 °policy switch for detennination of set by model user;default value state expenditure growth based zero upon saving a specified amount (EXSAVS) EXRLOPS °policy switch for detennination of set by model user;default value state operating expenditure growth zero based upon spending an annuity (EXANSAV) P1-P6 0,0,0,1,1,1 variables to facilitate printing values internal to model to allow popUlation distribution model income distribution model to work results;units PAD 1 .7 proportion of population aged 5 to 19 Department of Education,Annual attending district schools;percent Financial Report,and population model PAD2 .082 proportion of population aged 5 to 19 Department of Education,Annual attending REAA schools;percent Financial Report,and population model PADJ 1.5 ratio of premium (WRM9P)to low wage Department of Labor (DOL), (WRM91)in manufacturing sector Statistical Quarterly PARLVFV .919 ratio of local value to full value of average of past values from Alaska I local property according to state Dept.of Community and Regional appraiser;percent Affairs,Alaska Taxable PARNONGF .2 proportion of University of Alaska Department of Administration, revenues not from the general fund;Executive Budget percent 7-3 Variable PBLTBL PBTRATE PC12N Value Definition:Units •13 proportion of gross business receipts taxable after 1978 tax law change; percent .000025 state business license tax rate; million $per business .922 proportion of ANCSA payments made to 12 regional Native corporations in Alaska;percent Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation Decetrber 1984,Model ASS.1 Historical Data Source ratio of predicted receipts under new law and old law using information from Alaska Dept.of Revenue,Commissioner's Newsletter (under new law,only banks,trusts, and savings &loans taxed) existing state tax law 2(c)Report:Federal Programs and Alaska Natives by Robert Nathan Assoc.for U.S.Department of Interior PC12RN .833 PCINDA .1 PCIVPY .65 PCNC4 0 PCNCSV .5 PCNCSV1 PCNCWS .25 proportion of members of 12 regional Native corp9rCitions residing ill Alaska;percent proportion of gap between average industry employment share and Native industry employment share that is closed within one time -"-._-"-----_.__.__.....__.._-_._~--_._~---- period;percent ratio of military to federal civilian wage rate proportion of bonus income from ······-leasesalesonNati vel ands···. -paid-direct1 y-to individuals proportion of Native corporation income used for investment proportion of bonus income from -lease sales-on Native corporation lands and retained by Natfve corpora- tions whictlls-used for investment .. proportion of current expenditures of Native Corporations paid in wages and salaries 7-4 2(c)Report:Federal Programs and Alaska Natives by Robert Nathan Assoc.for U.S.Department of Interior author's estimate Alaska Department of Labor, Statistical Quarterly,and U.S. Dept.of Commerce,Bureau of Economic Analysis personal income data author's estimate author's estimate author's estimate author's estimate j I !j J ] J ! J ! I 1 ! Variable Value Definitionj Units PCWS1 .9 ratio of state government wage and salary payments to personnel expenditures PCWS2 1.3 ratio of local government wage and salary payments to local government personal services expenditures PCYNA1 1.01545 proportion by which the ratio of personal income to wages and salaries for Natives exceeds that of the total population PDCONBAS 633.398 value of construction price deflator in base year PDRPIBAS 385 1984 Alaskan price level using 1967 U.S.as base;index PECIG .625 proportion of cigarette tax receipts II paid to special fund;percent PERNA 1 0 proportion of change in state lJ employment rate reflected in change in Native employment rate; percent PERNA2 .005 proportion of gap between Native and state employment rates that is closed in one year;percent PERNA3 percentage of Native corporation jobs held by Natives;percent PESlT .4 proportion of "other"state taxes shared with local government;percent PESlTC .1 proportion of state corporate income tax shared with local government; percent PFISH1 .97 percentage of fish harvesting employ- ment reported as proprietors 7-5 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model ASS.1 Historical Data Source Alaska Department of labor, Statistical Quarterly,and Alaska Dept.of Administration,Executive BUdget Alaska Department of labor, Statistical Quarterly,and U.S. Dept.of Commerce,Government Finances 1970 U.S.census,pUblic use samples Gross State Product for Alaska: Technical Documentation,ISER variable PDRPI in database existing state tax law author's estimate author's estimate author's estimate existing state tax law existing state tax law DOL Statistical Quarterly,BEA employment data,and G.Rogers, Measuring the Socioeconomic Lmpact of Alaska's Fisheries Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model ASS.1 Variable Definition;Units Historical Data Source PIDIST PNTGR PRINT2 PTOURB o .02 o -4.75 model switch which results in retrieval of Native errployment and wages and salaries from income distribution model if value of one is chosen gross receipts per business exerrpt from state gross receipts tax;··.... mi 11 ion $ variable from income distribution model which allows results to be printed if value of one is chosen intercept term on tourist industry errployment equation existing state tax law Improvements to Specification of the MAP Model,ISER,January 1982 ] J I .J PTOURD .4 proportion of tourist industry errployment in trade Improvements to Specification of the MAP Model,ISER,January 1982 PTOURE elasticity of tourism employment to growth in number of tourists Improvements to Specification of the MAP Model,ISER,January 1982 .02 tax rate on state petroleum-related property; percent .02 real rate of return on general fund balance;percent .2 proportion of tourist industry errp.loyment in transportation j .] J j 1 ] I ] I 1967 state government and employment author's estimate existing state tax law Improvements to Specification of the MAP Model,ISER,January 1982 data from U.S.Department of Commerce~ Bureau of Economic Analysis author's estimate author's estimate setbylliOi:le111ser in conjunction with EXANNU .-.-"c~~~Inprovements:c..to-·Spee-if.i eat-i on-of~the~ MAP Model,ISER,January 1982 real rate of depreciation of state capital;percent .08 ra.te a.t which state operating expenditure annuity grows;percent 5473 ..1967 U.S._~v~~g~_wage_paJ~i n.-,-~~ government .02 real interest rate on state-general obligation bonds .03 .4 proport-ion oftourist·industry··~-·-~~ errployment in services RORCPDEP ROR RORBOND RORANGRO PTOURT PTRTS PWRBASE 7-6 , j Variable Value Definition;Units RORDISK .02 discount rate applied to future petroleum revenues to calculate present value in 1982 dollars (DF.RSVP) RORNC .07 nanina1 rate of return on accumulated capital of Native Corporations RORPDF 0 real rate of return premium applied to development fund over general fund; percent II RORPPF .01 real rate of return premium applied to Pennanent Fund over general fund; percent 7.2.Demographic Module Institute of Social and Econanic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model ASS.1 Historical Data Source author's estimate author's estimate author's estimate author's estimate II Variable Military Population Definition;Units Historical Data Source lJ AFTOT MDPij 23.323 total armed forces personnel in 1980 military dependents in 1980 in cohort ij;thousand Alaska Air Command and Kruse, Design and Implementation of Alaska.1980 Reapportionment Data Collection Effort BOC,1980 Census of Population, extrapolated fran military census tracts III,J IJ MDTOT MILij MILRAT 25.131 Table 8 total military dependents in 1980;thousand armed forces personnel and military dependents in cohort ij in 1980; thousand the ratio of military employment (EMGM) to military population (POPM) 7-7 Alaska Air Command and Kruse, Design and Implementation of Alaska.1980 Reapportionment Data Collection Effort BOC,1980 census of Population, extrapolated fran military census tracts Civilian Non-Native Natural Increase Variable FERTj Table 9 Gj .2 Definitionj Units non-Native fertility rate for female cohort j shift factor for aging of cohorts Institute of Social and Econanic Research HAP Documentation December 1984,Hodel ASS.1 Historical Data Source Alaska Department of Health and Social Services and Alaska Native Medical center Civilian Native Natural Increase SEXDIV .518 SURINFi Table 10 Alaska Department of Health and Social Services Alaska Department of Health and Social Services Alaska Department of Health and Social Services and Alaska Native Medical Center Alaska Department of Health and Social Services non-Native infant survival rates; percent Native fertility rate in female cohort j non-Native survival rate for cohort ij non-Native male sex proportion at birth;percent Table 9NFERTlj Sij Table 10 NSij Table 10 Native survival rate for cohort ij Alaska Department and Social Services NSEXDIV .513 Native male sex proportion at birth; percent Alaska Department of Health and Social Services NSURINFi Table 10 Native infant survival rates;percent Alaska Department of Health and Social Services Civilian Migration CHIGi stochastic coefficient of migration equation See regression results Mij --fran Tables 12-=13 NMij 0 fraction of total endogenous elvi 11 an - (non ....Native)migration assigned to cohort-iJ migration rate (positive for in; negative for out)for Native popula- tion in cohort ij;percent A1askaPubJic.Survey OEMij Table 11 exogenous civilian non-Native migration rate (positive for in;negative for out) for population in cohort ij 7-8 Anchorage Urban Observatory and BOC,1980 census of Population .I oJ I I I J Variable Definition;Units Institute of Social and Economic Research HAP Documentation December 1984,Model AS5.1 Historical Data Source Household Formation [I CPGQij HHRij HHHij NHHRij NPGQij Table 15 Table 14 Table 16 Table 14 Table 15 fraction of civilian non-Native population in cohort ij in group quarters 1980 household formation rate for civilian non-Native population in cohort ij 1980 military households headed by individual in cohort ij;thousand 1980 household formation rate for civilian Native population in cohort ij;percent fraction of civilian Native popula- tion in cohort ij in group quarters BOC,1980 census Tape STF2B BOC,1980 census of Population, census Tape STF2 BOC,1980 census of Population BOC,census of Population, census Tape STF2 BOC,1980 census of Population NRClj [I ,I NTP POPMGQ RCij TP [I I I lJ 40 9.443 30 targeted total change in Native household formation rate for cohort ij period over which Native household formation rates trend;years military population in group quarters; thousand targeted total change in civilian household formation rate for cohort ij period over which civilian household formation rates trend;years 7-9 See HAP Technical Documentation Report,1983 See MAP Technical Documentation Report,1983 BOC,census of Population See HAP Technical Documentation Report,1983 See HAP Technical Documentation Report,1983 Total Female Male Military Population a TABLE 8.ALASKA POPULATION.APRIL 1.1980 Age Native Population Total Female Male Civilian Non-Native Total Female Male Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation Decenber 1984.Mode 1 AS5.1 Total Population Total Female Male I ) I J 1 o-1 1.646 806 840 5.648 2.763 2,885 1,459 732 727 8.753 4,301 4.452 'I1- 4 5,674 2.734 2,940 19,061 9,020 10,041 5.461 2,854 2,607 30,196 14,608 15,588 5 - 9 6,867 3,390 3.477 22.502 10,983 11,519 5,674 2,727 2.947 35,043 17,100 17,943 ;1 10 -14 7,433 3,638 3,795 23,264 11 ,206 12,058 3,585 1,718 1,867 34,282 16,562 17,720 I15-19 8,346 4,091 4,255 25.048 11 ,965 13.083 3,760 1,279 2,481 37,154 17,335 19,817 20 -24 6.899 3,445 3,454 27,681 14,168 13,513.10,510 3,291 7,219 45,090 20,904 24,186 J 25 -29 5,639 2,798 2.841 35.490 17,029 18.461 7,516 3,254 4,262 48,645 23,081 25,564 30 -34 4,373 2,179 2,194 32.480 14,929 17,551 5,310 2,379 2,931 42,163 19,487 22,676 j ..---_35.,.39__.3.539~~1.I53_c~1,Ja6.~~.~2A.96J Ll,~Q§..~,A55~_~~~,134 7__=J,OO 1.._1 ,846 ~1.34L 14,?§()J1J087 40 -44 2.802 1,376 1,426 18,280 8,008 10,272 1,593 816 777 22,675 10.200 12,475 ] 45 -49 2,657 1,301 1,356 15,440 6,992 8,448 298 120 178 18,395 8.413 9,982 ]50 -54 2,176 1,074 1,102 13,442 5,938 7,484 250 125 125 15,848 7,137 8.711 ........-55=59 1,802 ····-85f ····945······ro,tg4 -4,940 ..5~791t ··sr -43 ···········-38 12;61T 5,840-6.777 I--~~~"--_.._.._~.__.•._----~---~------_._----_._---_.__._-_......__._...._-------_._._._-----_._.__._--_..._.__.._-------_.._------------_.._------ 60 -64 1,307 679 628 6.751 3,095 3,656 38 19 19 8,096 3,793 4,303 65 +2.875 --L.lli 1.464 8,600 4.263 4.337 ----ll -----2l __1_5 11.547 5.731 5.816 I 64,035 31,532 32,503 289,362 136,805 152,557 48,454 20,415 28,039 401,851 188,752213,099 "' aActive duty military plus dependents. SOURCE:1980 U.S.census 7-10 I J J !] Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model ASS.1 TABLE 9.1980 BIRTHS:NUMBER OF BIRTHS AND BIRTH RATES PER THOUSAND WOMEN IN FIVE-YEAR AGE COHORTS, ALASKA RESIDENTS Native Non-Native Age of Mother No.of Births Rate No.of Births Rate 10-14 Years 0.3 5 0.4 15-19 Years 438 138.5 686 48.4 20-24 Years 821 297.9a 2,632 145.1 a 25-29 Years 528 173.3 2,548 127.2a 30-34 Years 260 101.1 1,212 71.7 35-39 Years 84 46.5 283 22.7 40-44 Years 18 12.7 38 4.3 Not Stated 2 Total 2,151 7,406 (9,557 total births in Alaska in 1980) aRate includes one case where age was not stated. SOURCE:Nunber of births from Alaska Department of Health and Social Services, Office of Information Systems:and Alaska Native Medical center,Anchorage. 7-11 Institute of Social !and Economic Research HAP Documentation IDecember1984,Model ASS.1 TABLE 10.1980 DEATHS:NUMBER OF DEATHS AND DEATH RATES j PER THOUSAND.ALASKA RESIDENTS INATIVENON-NATIVE Female Male Female Male J Age Group Nunber Rate Nunber Rate Nunber Rate Nunber Rate I <28 Days 8 7.63 14 12.69 16 4.48 24 6.26 '.J 28 Days -10 12.36 13 15.53 11 3.15 21 5.81 1 Year ·1 1-4 Years 3 1.09 4 1.36 8 0.67 11 0.87 J 5-9 Years 2 0.55 3 0.78 1 0.07 2 0.14 i~10-14 Years 1 0.28 5 1.32 1 0.08 6 0.43 15-19 Years 10 3.16 24 6.70 6 0.42 22 1.36 20-24 Years 8 2.90 32 10.00 9 0.50 50 2.38 ,} ,. )25-29 Years 11 3.61 29 8.60 13 0.65 56 2.52 30-34 Years 10 3.89 13 4.34 13 0.77 50 2.54 35-39 Years 8 4.42 22 10.10 13 1.04 28 1.88 1 40-44 Years 9 6.34 17 9.82 15 1.71 43 4.00 45-49 Years 3 2.67 8 5.87 20 2.74 43 4.99 50-54 Years 12 12.90 12 10.80 22 3.54 59 7.76 I55-59 Years 10 13.00 19 21.20 40 7.89 76 12.92 60-64 Years 8 16.00 19 33.50 34 10.30 77 20.62 65 Years +45 31.10 91 63.20 148 34.10 268 62.05 I Total 158 325 370 836 ! 1 SOURCE:Number of deaths from Alaska Department of Health and Soci a 1 Services,IOfflceofInfonnationSystems. 7-12 I Institute of Social and Economic Research HAP Documentation Decenber 1984,Mode 1 AS5.1 TABLE 11.ESTIHATED EXOGENOUS OUT-MIGRATION RATES Percent of Migrants Percent of Age-Sex Cohort Age Group Female Male Female Hale Under 5 5.8 5.8 10.17 10.17 5-9 5.8 5.8 10.76 10.37 10-14 2.9 2.9 5.17 4.79 15-19 3.3 3.3 5.10 4.98 20-24 3.2 3.6 4.52 5.33 25-29 7.0 8.2 8.79 9.98 30-34 5.8 8.1 7.42 9.17 35-39 4.0 5.2 6.56 9.35 40-44 3.2 3.5 7.26 6.38 45-49 1.8 1.4 4.49 3.26 50-54 1.9 1.9 7.09 5.61 55-59 1.1 1.3 4.41 5.07 60-64 1.3 1.3 9.60 8.55 65 +0.3 0.3 1.41 1.78 Total 47.4 52.6 6.63 SOURCE:Richard Ender,Anchorage Urban Observatory and U.S.census,1980. 7-13 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation Decent>er 1984,Model ASS.1 TABLE 13.ESTIMATED CIVILIAN MIGRATION RATES TO ANCHORAGE (percent of migrants in each category) SOURCE:Data from Alaska Public Survey 7-15 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model ASS.1 TABLE 14.1980 ALASKA CIVILIAN HEADSHIP RATES J\~~lJIllE!S 1970 distribution for age 15-54 in group quarters after military in group quarters of 8,078 males and 1,365 females was subtracted from total age 15-54 in group quarters.Other group quarters by cohort is from U.S.census. j I~ I I '} !I ,I j ( .330 .925 .503 .888 Native Female Male .026 .025 •127 .257 .188 .539 .219 .691 .227 .807 .227 .807 .267 .864 .267 .864 Civilian/Non-Native Age Group Female Male 15-19 .036 .063 20-24 .201 .553 25-29 .234 .742 30-34 .237 .836 35;;;.39 .215 .905 40-44 .216 .914 45-49 .224 .943 50-54 .223 .931 55-59 .262 .923 60-64 .320 ..922 65 +.466 .884 NOTES: Assumes no Natives in military SOURCE:U.S.Department of CooTnerce,Bureau of census,1980,Census of PopUlation,census Tape STF2,Table 11. 7-16 l 1 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation Deceflber 1984.Mode 1 ASS.1 TABLE 15.ALASKA CIVILIAN POPULATION IN GROUP QUARTERS.1980 NON-NATIVE NATIVE Female Hale Female Male Age Group NunDer Rate NunDer Rate Number Rate NunDer Rate <1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1-4 41 .0045 71 .0071 7 .0026 12 .0041 5-9 35 .0032 53 .0046 20 .0059 20 .0058 10-14 35 .0031 53 .0044 20 .0055 20 .0053 15-19 48 .0040 569 .0435 98 .0240 160 .0376 20-24 401 .0283 986 .0729 98 .0284 239 .0692 25-29 69 .0040 439 .0238 33 .0118 115 .0405 30-34 33 .0022 291 .0166 20 .0092 69 .0314 35-39 13 .0011 374 .0278 10 .0057 40 .0224 40-44 29 .0036 379 .0369 4 .0029 41 .0288 45-49 64 .0092 331 .0392 12 .0092 35 .0258 50-54 30 .0051 198 .0265 12 .0112 20 .0181 55-59 46 .0093 154 .0266 11 .0128 22 .0233 60-64 10 .0032 98 .0268 7 .0103 22 .0350 65 +320 .0751 281 .0648 72 .0510 61 .0417 Total 1.174 4.277 424 876 SOURCE:U.S.Census Tape STF2B 7-17 TABLE 16.ALASKA MILITARY HOUSEHOLDS (percent) Age Group Female Male 15-19 •1 .6 20-24 .6 18.3 25-29 .9 29.1 30-34 .3 23.7 35-39 .2 15.8 40-44 •1 6.7 45-49 ·1 1.7 50-54 •1 1.0 60-64 65 + SOURCE:1980 census.census Tapes •1 •1 .1 Institute of Social and Economic Research HAP Documentation December 1984.Model ASS.1 i l ,( 1\ -\ I Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A8S.1 8.Model Validation and Properties Several types of analyses are done to test the validity of the MAP model.1 8.1.Statistical Tests statistical tests are normally applied to the .stochastic equations of the model.All stochastic equations in the MAP model are estimated using ordinary least squares regression.Two-staged least squares estimations have been found in the past not to change significantly the results of simulations.In general,specifications for these equations are chosen which have good predictive qualities (R2,standard error of regression)and structural properties (t tests,F test).Sometimes,however,it is necessary to compromise on the quality of the statistical tests of the model to obtain an equation specification which does well in simulation.This is because when simulating with all the equations together in a model, equations that appear correct may not always interact to produce reasonable results. Individual equation statistical tests are applied during estimation.At the same time,the stability of the structure of the ind~vidual equations can be reviewed.As might be expected in the rapidly evolving Alaskan economy,the structures of some equations may need to be altered over time. 8.2.Historical Simulation Second,the model is tested by seeing how accurately it can predict the actual historical data upon which it is based (ex post forecast).There are no formal statistical tests of this capability except that a model that comes closer to the actual historical values is better.One value of this test is that it indicates variables or sections of the model which may require additional attention. The results of historical the MAP model are presented endogenous variables of the salaries,and employment. simulation of the current version of in Table 17 for the most important model:personal income,wages and 1The model used to do the tests presented in this section was developed in early 1984. 8-1 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 TABLE 17.HISTORICAL SIMULATION OF ECONOMIC MODULE Personal Income (million $) Historical Simulated Percent Data Value Error Error 1963 678.623 653.422 -25.202 -3.714 1964 763.415 736.542 -26.873 -3.52 1965 827.373 813.878 -13.495 -1.631 1966 894.177 871.322 -22.855 -2.556 1967 987.882 928.313 -59.569 -6.03 1968 1068.36 1052.9 -15.463 -1.447 1969 .1215.8 lJH·9A -40.856 -3.36 1970 1388.01 1276.23 -111.782 -8.053 1971 1519.28 1423.89 -95.394 -6.279 1972 1677 .57 1594.13 -83.446 -4.974 1973 1958.88 1900.5 -58.385 -2.981 1974 2391.46 2228.78 -162.683 -6.803 .19,i5c '_._._-'-_.•_C:_...__c:..___~,3ASA.6.9_'.___3211.Z4.~_-242.953 -7.033---_.-----....;...-'--..__. 1976 4128.95 4231.62 102.672 2.487 1977 4260.56 4293.15 32.59 0.765 1978 4323.98 4282.7 -41.273 -0.955 1979 4554.01 4678.71 124.699 2.738 1980 5152.5393.18 241.176 4.681 "....._......_-_.._.._--_..,_._----~.__.._--1981 6166.58 6339.27 172.684 2.8..··-1982·--~•.._._-"_.._.._._..._....•_---_."-_.._...-.,--_.-......'53;2737S-84~'34 7437.61 .'.-...0.721 Mean 2739.8 2726.14 -13.657 -2.257 Root Mean Squared 3379.33 3405.83 110.602 4.267 Standard Deviation 2029.62 2094.57"112.607 3.716 8-2 ! j I I ] I j ) -') I I I 'I j \I I .1 I .I Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 TABLE 17 (continued) Wages and Salaries (million $) Historical Simulated Percent pata Value Error Error 1963 589.3 585.755 -3.545 -0.602 1964 668.2 664.317 -3.883 -0.581 1965 721.2 728.942 7.743 1.074 1966 770.5 778.598 8.098 1.051 1967 851.7 818.01 -33.69 -3.956 1968 929.5 929.749 0.249 0.027 1969 1072.4 1036.49 -35.912 -3.349 1970 1203.2 1121.32 -81.879 -6.805 1971 1308.4 1252.58 -55.824 -4.267 1972 1444.1403.42 -40.584 -2.811 I ( 1973 1566.9 1572.79 5.893 0.376 \.)1974 2110.8 1958.53 -152.273 -7.214 1975 3412.9 3252.88 -160.017 -4.689 II 1976 4236.4222.02 -13.98 0.33 1977 3787.61 3792.36 4.751 0.125 1978 3600.07 3480.9 -119.169 -3.31 1979 3802.52 3803.29 0.765 0.02 1980 4280.07 4389.82 109.75 2.564 1981 5108.52 5236.51 127.996 2.506 1982 5937.61 5962.65 25.047 0.422 Mean 2307.07 2349.55 -20.523 -1.487 Root Mean Squared 2896.81 2891.8 72.92 3.166 Standard Deviation 1708.89 1729.66 71.791 2.868 8-3 TABLE 17 (continued) Nonagriculture.Wage and Salary Employment (thousands) .~.._..----".,----_._------,.~-----~-1981 ·-··18-5-~2T9····18·0:591 =4;628::.:;2-;-499· ·_--·-~-··-·---~-r982-·----··-·--·-·-199-:5-45-······----·---195-;-99-···-·-·-·---3.555-~-~·---1-.-7·81-·-'.~_.-. Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 ! 1 ! f \ I I ! .i I 1 ( \ \ i ~ 1 I 2.531 1.731 -1.886 3.153 2.217 -2.296 45.42 127.088 119.128 46.267 129.528 121.424Mean Root Mean Squared ·standard Deviation Historical Simulated Percent Data Value Error Error 1963 62.093 59.626 -2.467 -3.973 1964 65.38 65.553 0.173 0.265 1965 70.529 68.377 -2.152 -3.051 1966 73.195 71.469 -'-1.726 -2.358 1967 76.784 73.792 ...,.2.992 -3.897 1968 79.803 .80.•388 ...()!585 0.733 1969 86.563 85.494 -1.069 -1.234 1970 92.465 90.949 -1.516 -1.639 1971 97.584 97.541 -0.043 -0.044 1972 104.243 102.154 -2.089 -2.004 1973 109.849 109.559 -0.29 -0.264 .....19]_4..~121t.~16A ._120.276 -7.888 -6.154 1975 161.315 155.908 -5.407 -=3.352 1976 171.185 171.404 0.219 0.128 1977 164.063 163.267 -,0.796 -0.485 1978 163.293 161.173 -2.12 -1.298 1979 166.406 163.727 -2.679 -1.61 1980 170.807 165.323 -5.484 -3.211 8-4 I I Il Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 The results are summarized for each variable in terms of a MAPE value,which is the mean-absolute percent error of the predicted value from the actual value.The MAPE are as follows:personal income,2.26;wages and salaries,1.49;and nonagricultural wage and salary employment,1.89.The results for the MAP Alaska model fall within the range reported for other regional econometric models,and the pattern of forecast errors and percent errors shows that the model has been successful in tracking a historical period during which significant growth and structural c~ange occurred. 8.3.Demographic Module Validation The demographic module of the economic model uses as the basis of its forecasts the demographic characteristics of the population enumerated by the 1980 u.S.Census.No detailed enumeration of the state population has been undertaken since the 1980 Census.The most recent past detailed population count that could be used to test the ability of the full module to predict demographic shifts up to 1980 is the 1970 U.S.Census.Conceptually,one could use the population module to "predict"the 1980 population,given the 1970 population characteristics and estimated migration between 1970 and 1980. Such a test is impractical,however,since Alaskan cohort- specific birth,death,and household formation rates changed significantly between the 1970 and 1980 Census benchmarks. Consequently,one would not expect a module to forecast popUlation changes accurately during this period using the 1980 parameters. Although it is not practical to test predictions of the full population module against historical events,it is possible to examine closely one important component of the module--net migration.The equation forecasting net civilian migration was estimated using recent historical data.To the extent that future economic conditions resemble those that have occurred in the past decade,the ability of the module equation to estimate historical migraton flows provides a reliable indicator of the type and magnitude of likely future forecasting errors.Table 18 displays a comparison of actual estimated net civilian migration to the migration equation predictions in the years for which it is possible to compute a forecast from available data. 8-5 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 TABLE 18.COMPARISON OF ACTUAL AND PREDICTED NET MIGRATION TO ALASKA Implied Net Civilian Regression Year Migration1 Prediction2 Difference I 1971 6.78 NA NA 1972 5.98 1.569 4.361 1973 2.08 -0.164 2.244 1974 8.29 10.669 -2.378 1975 30.49 30.066 0.424 1976 20.84 21.238·-O.39S 1977 1.51 1.074 0.436 1978 -11.11 -7.744 -3.366 1979 -5.07 -4.531 -0.539 1980 -0.75 -2.983 2.233 1981 8.05 12.996 -4.946 1982 17.94 16.01 1.98 INet migration·in year t is-deflneo as Ene urn erence·oet:ween------- the (mid-year)population estimate for year t and for··year t-1,less the excess of births over deaths (computed as a two-year moving average),adjusted to exclude estimated military population changes. 2Using the equation presented in Section 4,including the estimate of serial correlation in the error term. 8-6 :j 1 j I ,\ I l ! I i .1 ( .J ( i 1 I I I Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 8.4.Sensitivity Analysis The sensitivity of simulation and exogenous variable values has sensitive to the elasticity of spending levels,the labor force wage rate growth as well as to the 8.5.Simulation Tests results to changes in parameter been investigated.The model is the support sector,government participation rate,and the real exogenous employment variables. After these foregoing tests have been made,the model is run under different conditions to assess its reasonableness and stability in as many types of situations as possible as well as its ability to identify turning points.These tests include straight simulation,impact analyses,simulation under conditions of no growth,and simulation under conditions of decline.Certain variables are monitored to make sure that their values remain within a reasonable range. Several ratios which are closely monitored are shown in Table 19 for a typical simulation.The civilian employment rate (EMRATE) holds fairly constant and jumps during boom periods.The ratio of disposable-to-total personal income (PI.DPI)trends downward except .during boom periods.The Alaskan price index relative to the United States (PDRATIO)trends downward but ratchets up during boom periods.The ratio of price-adjusted personal income per capita in Alaska to the United States (INK.DI)jumps during booms but eventually falls below one as it has been historically.The ratio of the real wage in Alaska to the United States tt"ends upward slightly (INK.WG).The ratio of wage and salary to total income falls (PI.WS98).The ratios of support (INK.S1)and infrastructure (INK.S2)employment to Alaskan real disposable personal income are relatively stable.The ratios of support (EM.EMSUP)and infrastructure (EM.EMTCU)employment to total employment show continued growth. 8-7 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 TABLE 19.VARIABLES USED TO MONITOR SIMULATION EMRATE PI.DPI PDRATIO INX.DI INX.WG PI.WS98 1983 0.511 0.824 1.275 1.124 1.572 0.81 1984 0.502 0.824 1.267 1.05 1.512 0.822 1985 0.499 0:'823 1.259 1.021 1.458 0.807'., 'i 1986 0.503 .0.:822 1.251 1.004 1.42 0.802 1987 0.501 0.:821 1.243 0.975 1.375 0.793 1988 0.499 0.82 1.236 0.974 1.374 0.784 1989 0.499 0.818 1.228 0.98 1.371 0.773 1990 0.507 0.817 1.219 0.963 1.39 0.803 1991 0.513 0.792 1.211 0.944 1.412 0.811 1992 0.51 0.79 1.256 0.927 1.404 0.809 1993 0.508 0.789 1.248 0.916 1.403 0.81 1994 0.504 0.788 1.24 0.913 1.394 0.796 1995 0.509 0.787 1.232 0.915 1.405 0.802 1996 0.499 0.786 1.224 0.901 1.396 0.789 1997 0.5 0.785 1.216 0.898 1.404 0.792 1998 0.485 0.784 1.208 0.891 1.395 0.781_...._-----_._-._-_•..__.._-..~---O:783~~~-1;T~O.88~4-·T:3(r~-·1999 0.493 ··_·0-:775 2000 0.491 0.782 1.192 0.879 1.389 0.772 2001 0.496 0.781 1.184 0.884 1.397 0.773 2002 0.498 0;779 1.176 0.885 1.402 0.772 2003 0.499 0.778 1.168 0.883 1.404 0.771 2004 0.498 0;777 1.159 0.879 1.404 0.768 2005 0.498 0.776 1.151 0.877 1.407 0.766 .._-_._-~-~------------~-2006 O-;-498~--O-;-7-7·5~--1~14-3----0.8-7-5 1...4,:];,2 O-.~7·64---·~·_·_---- 2007 0.498 0.774 1.135 0.874 1.417 0.763 2008 0.499 0.772 1.127 0.874 1.423 0.763 2009 0.5 0.771 1.119 0.872 1.427 0.762 2010 0.5 0.77 1.111 .0.869 1.431 0.761 SOURCE:BAT14 KEY~See text. 8-8 i :J ! f j I ( ( l i j 1 :l [ ! ( ! I 'j TABLE 19 (continued) Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 INX.S1 INX.S2 EM.EMTCU EM.EMSUP 1983 0.048 0.011 0.078 0.335 1984 0.051 0.012 0.078 0.342 1985 0.052 0.012 0.08 0.348 1986 0.053 0.012 0.08 0.348 1987 0.053 0.012 0.08 0.348 1988 0.053 0.012 0.08 0.349 1989 0.052 0.012 0.08 0.352 1990 0.052 0.012 0.082 0.35 1991 0.053 0.013 0.084 0.348 1992 0.053 0.013 0.085 0.353 1993 0.054 0.013 0.084 0.36 1994 0.054 0.012 0.085 0.365 1995 0.054 0.013 0.087 0.368 1996 0.054 0.013 0.088 0.379 1997 0.054 0.013 0.089 0.383 1998 0.054 0.012 0.088 0.39 1999 0.055 0.012 0.088 0.397 2000 0.055 0.012 0.087 0.403 2001 0.054 0.012 0.087 0.404 2002 0.054 0.012 0.087 0.41 2003 0.054 0.011 0.087 0.416 2004 0.055 0.011 0.088 0.423 2005 0.055 0.011 0.089 0.43 2006 0.055 0.011 0.089 0.436 2007 0.055 0.011 0.09 0.442 2008 0.055 0.011 0.09 0.448 2009 0.055 0.011 0.09 0.454 2010 0.055 0.011 0.091 0.461 SOURCE:BAT14 KEY:See text. 8-9 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP 'Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 '',j In general,in such a simulation,one wouldexp~ct some growth, but not a large amount.This is,in fact,the result.After about 1985,when government spending finally flattens out,employment holds fairly constant.Private sector employment is growing while public sector employment is falling as rising costs squeeze employment out ofa constant-level budget.Population grows slowly. ··Lnc,=this-par.ticular~~~case,...the slow~gr.owth....ob.v:ia.t.es...the_nee.d.~,.t.o. reinstitute the personal income tax,so the relative price level falls continuously,and this is a stimulus to support sector growth.There is'no formal standard against which to measure this case except reasonableness,economic theory,and the experience of other regions.By these criteria,the simulation appears satisfactory. 8-10 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 TABLE 20.NO-GROWTH PROJECTION RESULTS POP EM99 POPMIG POPNI9 R.DPI 1983 480.352 255.885 12.303 8.013 1781.64 1984 492.698 257.886 4.778 8.348 1723.76 1985 499.989 259.935 -0.421 8.463 1726.71 1986 499.359 253.048 -9.078 8.438 1659.38 1987 498.805 250.596 -8.759 8.181 1627.11 1988 499.107 249.524 -7.68 7.959 1645.48 1989 501.674 250.413 -5.235 7.779 1674.8 1990 504.525 251.855 -4.84 7.678 1706.72 1991 507.627 253.716 -4.501 7.593 1741.31 1992 510.403 255.148 -4.784 7.525 1772.71 1993 513.436 257.016 -:4.463 7.457 1807.78 1994 516.988 259.436 -3.895 7.406 1847;07 1995 520.304 261.325 -4.101 7.377 1882.59 1996 523.652 263.212 -4.042 7.348 1918.77 1997 527.085 265.09 -3.937 7.326 1958.49 1998 531.141 267.546 -3.296 7.311 2003.13 1999 535.923 270.682 -2.578 7.319 2053.24 2000 541.343 274.267 -1.971 7.35 2107.05 2001 547.41 278.255 -1.374 7.4 2164.44 2002 553.956 282.349 -0.961 7.467 2223.13 2003 560.553 286.003 -0.991 7.546 2278.7 2004 567.308 289.537 -0.911 7.625 2334.1 2005 574.38 293.163 -0.679 7.707 2393.97 2006 582.161 297.304 -0.052 7.797 2460. 2007 590.841 203.133 0.729 7.905 2532.37 2008 599.918 306.915 0.997 8.036 2604.51 2009 608.592 310.775 0.465 8.174 2668.96 2010 617.161 314.479 0.237 8.296 2733.31 KEY:POP EM99 POPMIG POPNI9 R.DPI Population (thousands) Employmen~(thousands) Net migration (thousands) Natural Increase (thousands) Real disposable income (millions of 1967 U.S.$) SOURCE:FLAT14 8-11 SOURCE:FLAT14 8=12 TABLE 20 (continued) Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 l 1 I 1 j I ~~! I ! ( I ( \ ( ! { I .! 'I ! Stateandloc.al govet'rtrtlefit=employment __(thousands) Real disposable income per capita (1967 U.S.$) Civilian employment rate Alaskan relative price index KEY:EMGA PR.DPI EMRATE PDRATIO EMGA PR.DPI EMRATE PDRATIO 1983 46.688 3709.03 0.511 1.275 1984 46.456 3498.61 0.502 1.267 1985 45.152 3453.5 0.499 1.259 1986 43.115 3323.01 0.485 1.252 '; 1987 42.252 3262.01 0.481 1.245 1988 41.853 3296.84 0.478 1.238 1989 41.633 3338.43 0.477 1.23 1990 41.65 3382.83 0.477 1.223 1991 41.776 3430.3 0.478 1.215 1992 41.928 3473.15 0.478 1.207 1993 42.072 3520.95 0.479 1.199 1994 42.235 3572.75 0.481 1.191 1995 42.405 3618.25 0.481 1.183 1996 42.594 3664.2 0.482 1.175 1997 42.398 3715.69 0.482 1.167 1998 42.196 3771.38 0.483 1.159 ---4Z.028 ..--383T;Z2 c---0-.4 8S -1:~1$1 2000 41.896 3892.25 0.487 1.143 2001 41.793 3953.97 0.489 1.135 2002 41.709 4013.19 0.49 1.127 2003 41.626 4065.1 0.491 1.119 2004 41.533 4114.35 0.492 1.111 2005 41.126 4167.93 0.492 1.102 -----·---------.·--2006-----·--40.6-14-----4·2-2-5-.-64------0-.·4-92-...1..-0.9_4_--------_."._-----_._-_. 2007 40.133 4286.04 0.493 1.086 2008 39.678 4341.45 0.494 1.078 2009 39.219 4385.46 0.493 1.07 2010 38.74 4428.84 0.492 1.062 I )II \ I I IL..) Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 8.6.Some Properties of the Model Important properties of the model can be observed by examl.nl.ng select impact experiments.Table 21 shows the results of a one-time increase in construction employment of 1,000 in 1985.The upper portion of the table is premium wage,remote site,enclave employment (EMCNX1),while the lower is regular construction (EMCNX2).This exercise,although unlikely to be encountered in any actual situation,demonstrates several model features. First,the size of the employment impact multiplier is demonstrated to be 1.54 for regular construction and 1.88 for special construction.It can be shown by further impact tests that the impact multiplier for other basic sectors is smaller.For example,for federal government employment,it is approximately 1.4. Thus,the size of the impact multiplier varies with the type of basic (or exogenous)change which occurs,and its value is within a reasonable range.The total employment effect includes,in addition to the direct employment,the indirect employment (which an 1-0 analysis would measure),the induced employment (which an augmented 1-0 model that included consumer spending would measure),the investment effect (which is endogenous to the MAP model but treated as exogenous in most models including 1-0 models),and the structural change effect.This last effect consists of new types of activities stimulated by changing economic opportunities produced by the direct employment.A static model would capture only the first or the first and second components of nondirect employment,and a growth model is necessary to capture all effects.The MAP model does this. Second,if the exogenous change is not sustained,the employment impact will not be sustained but will diminish over time and eventually disappear.The total effect is felt over a period of several years rather than'instantaneously.Population impact is dissipated more slowly than employment. Table 22 presents a more likely time pattern for exogenous impact--that of the construction of the natural gas pipeline. In contrast to these impact multipliers,a third impact analysis,reported in Table 23,shows the effect of an increase in construction employment of 1,000 sustained in all future years. This clearly puts the economy onto a new long-run growth trajectory after about four years.The employment and population responses are larger than in the case of an impulse-type im~act both because they are initialed in a later year when the economy is larger and because the higher level of activity is permanent and causes a permanent response in other sectors of the economy.Notice that the remote site employment impact is slightly smaller because a larger proportion of those construction employees are nonresidents. 8-13 8-14 SOURCE:BAT14.A and BAT14.B TABLE 21.IMPACTS OF A ONE-TIME INCREASE IN CONSTRUCTION EMPLOYMENT (thousands) Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 l.I l j 1 \ ( ! i 1 j ! 1 I I "\ -I -B_~_:_'~-l j POP POP EM99 EM99 EMGA EMGA 0.022 1.536 1.158 0.068 0.388 0.725 0.042 0.249 0.532 0.038 0.209 0.511 --0-.019 -----.0.116 ._0_•.4.8/L 0_._0_1.9_.0....084 __.0._.404 _ 0.01 0.059 0.349 0.006 0.041 0.281 0.003 0.026 0.23 0.002 0.017 0.184 0.001 0.01 0.155 -0.017 -0.017 0.106 EMSUP EMSUP EMTCU EMTCU 0.055 0.281 0.025 0.249 0.019 0.152 0.015 0.127 O.014---·-·----0~119------ 0_..0_0_6.___0 05.1 0.004 0.035 0.003 0.024 0.002 0.015 0.001 0.009 0.001 0.005 O.0.001 EMCN EMCN 1.075 0.02 0.02 0.015 0.013 ---0-.008 0.006 0.005 0.004 0.003 0.002 O. Exogenous constructionemployment _ Total construction employment Transportation/communication/public utility employment Trade/finance/service employment - State/local government employnlent Total employment Population 1.1.118 0.159 0.476 0.011 1.882 1.423 O.0.17 0.008 -0.024 0.018 0.186 0.834 O.0.019 0.014 0.111 0.026 0.181 0.507 O.0.012 0.008 0.067 0.018 0.112 0.417 O.0.008 0.006 0.051 0.012 0.083 0.378 O.0.005 0.004 0.029 0.009 0.05 0.331 O.0.004 0.003 0.021 0.006 0.037 0.282 0 0.004 0.002 0.014 0.004 0.026 0.224 O.0.004 0.001 0.009 0.002 0.017 0.182 o.0.003 0.001 0.005 0.002 0.012 0.15 O.0.002 0.001 0.005 0.001 0.009 0.1.26 O.o.O.0.001 -0.015 ...,.0.015 O.<J~5 Regular Construction Employment (EMCNX2) EMCNX EMCNX Premium Wage,Remote Site,Enclave Employment (EMCNX1) 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 -kEY:EMCNX EMCN EMTCU EMSUP EMGA EM99 POP 1985 1. 1986 O. 1987 O. 1988 O. 19890. -----------------1-9-90--------0-.- 1991 O. 1992 O. 1993 O. 1994 O. 1995 o. 1996 o~ 8-15 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 TABLE 23.IMPACTS OF A SUSTAINED INCREASE IN CONSTRUCTION EMPLOYMENT Regular Construction Employment (EMCNX2) EMCNX EMCN EMTCU EMSUP EMGA EM99 1987 1.1.112 0.093 0.647 0.169 2.165 1988 1.1.132 0.107 0.759 0.199 2.351 1989 1.1.148 0.12 0.868 0.211 2.514 1990 1.1.152 0.125 0.911 0.221 2.582 1991 1.1.15 0.126 0.931 0.23 2.613 1992 1.1.154 0.13 0.965 0.235 2.663 1993 1.1.169 0.134 1.001 0.241 2..73 1994 1.1.18 0.138 1.031 0.244 2.781 1995 a 1.0.705 0.005 0.336 -2.924 -2.01 1996 1.0.196 0.065 0.331 1.068 1.781 1997 1.0.294 0.059 0.486 0.247 1.166 1998 1 0.977 0.089 0.579 .0.263 2.048 1999 1.1.216 0.111 0.761 0.31 2.574 2000 1.1.277 0.141 1.022 0.304 2.946 POP R.WR98 PR.PI HH WS98 1987 2.43 10.219 13.078 0.844 78.316 1988 2.895 10.305 12.707 1.007 89.672 1989 3.316 10.262 11.801 1.156 101.332 1990 3.664 9.238 10.43 1.28 110.98 ··..·----··------:r9-9"r·-----4-:-0.0S-----8-;-1:6-8---..-7-~8tr4---'-1~-402--..·120.1:56~-~---~-~~-_._._- 1992 4.362 8.738 6.125 1.53 136.852 1993 4.657 9.043 5.23 1.638 150.176 1994 4.891 9.805 4.34 1.726 163.91 1995 1.408 -4.191 -32.367 0.54 -125.137 1996 3.281 4.758 1.137 1.182 116.578 1997 2.924 .637 -4.621 1.066 77 .059 1998 3.529 12.-01.'.--'5-;328-."1.-278 ········1-10.20-]:: 1999 4.088 15.297 8.785 1.475 227.906 2000 4.554 14.914 11.273 1.643 270.051 aA negative impact occurs in 1995 because the increase in population causes a revenue shortfall one year earlier than in the base case. KEY:See Table 22. SOlJ:R.CE:BATl4.D 8-16 j ] '1 i I·J I ! ~ I j i I I ! i I ! l Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 TABLE 23 (continued) Premium Wage Remote Site,Enclave Employment (EMCNX1) aA negative impact occurs in 1995 because the increase in population causes a revenue shortfall one year earlier than in the 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 a 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 EMCNX 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. POP 2.714 3.056 3.369 3.634 3.858 4.106 4.336 4.533 1.054 2.953 2.603 3.213 3.8 4.292 EMCN 1.29 1.297 1.311 1.315 1.314 1.317 1.335 1.349 0.877 0.371 0.475 1.162 1.406 1.473 R.WR98 39.027 39.759 40.492 39.348 38.066 38.887 39.59 40.859 27.195 36.75 33.879 44.937 48.738 48.832 EMTCU 0.154 0.164 0.176 0.18 0.169 0.173 0.178 0.186 0.058 0.12 0.116 0.147 0.181 0.216 PR.PI -6.066 -6.715 -7.531 -8.102 -9.625 -10.02 -9.926 -9.879 -45.594 11.793 -16.609 -5.969 -1.77 1.367 EMS UP 0.51 0.564 0.599 0.612 0.602 0.627 0.658 0.691 0.009 0.013 0.181 0.284 0.483 0.758 HH 0.943 1.064 1.176 1.271 1.353 1.444 1.528 1.603 0.418 1.068 0.954 1.168 1.375 1.551 EMGA 0.097 0.103 0.105 0.109 0.114 0.12 0.124 0.13 -3.018 0.979 0.161 0.18 0.23 0.226 WS98 114.16 125.262 137.379 148.793 159.441 180.926 197.91 216.453 -65.746 181.824 149.137 249.457 316.273 367.809 EM99 2.192 2.273 2.343 2.369 2.352 2.394 2.457 2.522 -2.225 1.585 0.995 1.898 2.462 2.864 base case. KEY:See Table 22. SOURCE:BAT14.D 8-17 Institute of social.! and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A8S.1 -1 The large size of this impact is due to several factors.First,>! the measure of exogenous impact in Table 23 is only construction . employment (including engineers,managers,and clerical).The actual construction of a project like a pipeline involves,in addition to construction employees,a substantial support staff inl transportation,trade,and services.Thus,the direct employment . observea to be directly associated with construction will be larger, by perhaps one-third than the direct construction employment.(For I .l example,only about 68 percent of Alyeska pipeline employment was 1 categorized as construction.)In the model,this support employment appears with indirect support employment.Second in the model, investment is endogenous rather than exogenous,and this increases the size of any impact response because investment activity is a result of an increase in the basic sector.Finally,the model .j describes the development process wi thin the economy,and this is'. reflected in impact analysis.The economic development process may be described as an increase in the ratio of support-to-basic .1 activity.Obviously,if the average ratio of support-to-basic employment is increasing,then the incremental or marginal ratio must be above the average ratio. I j ] j 8-18 II Instltute of Socla1 and Economlc Research MAP Documentatlon Decenber 1984,Model ASS.1 9.Input Data Sources !! Varlable ANCSA APPFCONX BADD Deflnition payment to Alaska Natives by federal and state government under Alaska Native Claims Settlement Act; mi 1110n $ general fund approprlations to the Pennanent Fund blrth adjustment factor to account for birth of Native children to non-Natlve women Source based on the estlmate that $690 mi1110n of the orlglnal $962.5 million remalned to be paid out at the start of 1977. Payments increase when Prudhoe Bay 011 productl0n beglns and cease ln 1981. See Alaska Natlve land Clalms,Arnold author's estimate zero ln slmu1atl0n ,I BAlDF6II BAlGFUNA lJ BAlGF6 BAlPF6 BASEMCNX BASEPOP \II BASEXCAP I....J [1 BASEXGF initlal state development fund (hypothetical)balance;million $ state general fund balance unavailable for appropriations lnitla1 state general fund balance; mi 11 ion $ initlal state Pennanent Fund balance; mi 11 ion $ a base case vector of EMCNX values used for fiscal lmpact analysis in conjunctl0n with flsca1 pollcy variable EXRl4 a base case vector of POP values used for flsca1 lmpact analysis ln conjunction with fiscal policy variable EXRl4 a base case vector of EXCAP values used for flsca1 lmpact analysls in conjunction with flscal policy varlables EXRl4 base case expendlture value to be placed ln lmpact run to calculate difference ln state expendltures ln real per capita terms 9-1 hi stOrl ca 1 data author's estimate historical data historical data default values all one;alternate values obtalned from a base case default values all one;alternate values obtalned from a base case default values all one;alternate values obtalned from a base case default values all one;alternate values obtalned from a base case Variable BASEXOPS BASPDRPI BIU6 D.80DEC6 EHAGRI EHAUN EMCNX1 EMCNX2 EMFISH EMGC EMGM EMMX1 EMMX2 EMNATX Deflni tion a base case vector of EXOPS values used for fiscal impact analysis in conjunction with fiscal policy variables EXRL4 base case value of RPI to be input into impact run to calculate dif- ferencein state expenditures in real per capita tenns;index initial value of the Basic Instructional unit for School Foundations'distribution program;thousand $ dummy variable taking value of one in year or interval indicated;unit dummy variable with'value of unity in 1980,tapering off to zero in 6 years, reflecting the fact that Alaskan wage rates are "sticky downward" agricultural employment component of agriculture/forestry/fisheries (EHA9);thousands-'......- forestry and unclassified employment "enclave"or premium wage construction employment;thousand non-"enclave"exogenous construction emp1oyment;thousand fish harvesting employment;thousand federal civilian employment;thousand federal military employment;thousand premium wage manufacturing employment; thousand low wage manufacturing employment; thousand Native employment rate obtained from the income distribution model;percent 9-2 Institute of Social and Economic Research HAP Documentation December 1984,Model ASS.1 Source default values all one;alternate values obtained from a base case default values all one;alternate values obtained from a base case zero in simulation DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO constant at most recent historical level DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO .DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO' DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO values derived from income distribu- tion model (currently inoperative) J 1 I I } I ,1 1 ·1 I l ] I j I I 1 ! 1 Variable EMP9 EMT9X Defi nit ion mining employment;thousand large pipeline project-related trans- portation employment;thousand Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model ASS.1 Source DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO A1yeska employment based upon Alaska Department of Labor estimates; additional employment from DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO EXCPSFD6 initial values for portion of capital project fund EXCPSGB6 initial value for EXCPSGOB;million $ EXDF1 percent of state current account balance ,I placed into development fund (hypo-I .thetical);percentII EXDFPCNT development fund (hypothetical)with- (j drawa1s as percent of earnings;percent EXDSSX annual debt service payment to service general obligation bonds outstanding at beginning of simulation period; mi 11 ion $ EXGFCAP6 initial value for EXGFCAP;million $ EXGFCOT6 initial value for EXGFCOT;million $ EXGFOPSX exogenous component of state unrestricted general fund operating expenditures; million $ EXOPS6 initial total state operating expenditures net of debt service and University of Alaska nongeneral fund assistance;it is the sum of the 9 functional categories; I mi 11 ion $ j EXPFTOGF percent of Permanent Fund earnings transferred to the general fund EXPF1 percent contribution from available funds to Permanent Fund;percent EXPFCONX Permanent Fund contributions I appropriated from the general fund; mi 11 ion $ 9-3 ._..._-'-,._-._-."._'-.-. hi storica1 data historical data Department of Administration, Annual Financial Report hi stori ca 1 data historical data estimated from Department of Administration,Executive Budget author's estimate present law requires 25 percent contribution rate on areas leased before 1981 and 50 percent subsequently historical data Variable EXPFDIST EXPFDVX1 EXPFDVX2 EXSAVX Definition percent of Permanent Fund earnings transferred to general fund which are distributed to individuals;percent accounting-adjustment to Permanent Fund retained earnings in early years;million $ accounting adjustment to Permanent Fund dividend program in early years;million $ if EXRLOP7 is invoked in determination of state operating expenditures,this is the amount of revenues not spent;million $ Institute of Social and Economic Research HAP Documentation December 1984,Model ASS.1 I] Source author's estimate ADR,The Alaska Permanent Fund: Overview and March 1984 Projections ADR,The Alaska Permanent Fund: Overview and March 1984 Projections zero in default case EXSPCAP EXSPLITX EXSUBSX EXSUB1 EXSUB2 EXTRNSPI EXTRNSX EXUA6 GODTX special state capital appropriations; million $ the target allocation to operations when state spending falls below the authorized spending limit;percent exogenous values for state subsidy pro- initiated after 1980;million $-=-.._-~------- stimulative effect of state subsidies on construction industry;percent stimulative effect of state subsidies on consumer spending;percent state Permanent Fund dividends in 1982 and 1983 incorporated in state personal income- .Permanent Fund dividend distribution funded through the general fund initial value for University of Alaska operating budget;million $ general obligation bonded indebtedness of the -state from debtsi nctirred-hefore start of simulation period;million $ 9-4 author's estimate author's estimate author's estimate author's estimate author's estimate author's estimate hi stOrl ca 1 data historical data Department of Administration, Annual Flna.ncial Report 9-5 ·---Nattve-rEfCOr'r~ITt-i·n·come-fran-petro·leum··--·--·---author's-estlmaie--___-.~ development on Native land;million $ J J 1 1 1 ] Institute of Social and Economic Research HAP Documentation December 1984.Model AS5.1 Source historical data historical data hi stori ca 1 data based upon Department of Community and Regional Affairs.Alaska Taxable author's estimate Set to calibrate total popUlation for the model employment estimate Historical annual average growth rates of the consumer price index are as follows:1960-65,1.3\;1965-70, 4.2\;1970-75.6.7\;1975-77,6.1\. The simulation values are based upon projections by the Alaska Department of Revenue.See also U.S.Dept.of Commerce.Bureau of Economic Analysis, Survey of Current Business Department of Community and Regional Affairs,Alaska Taxable percentage of petroleum property which is taxable by state which falls within local taxing jurisdiction; percentage Definition percentage of pipeline property within local jurisdictions actually sUbject to local tax because of limitations imposed by state statutes;percent proportion of state general obligation bonds for highways bonus income to Natives from lease sales;million $ proportion of federal capital grants for highways pseudo labor force participation rate-- employment by place of work divided by labor force by place of residence; percent annual growth rate of U.S.consumer price index;percent proportion of state general fund capital ..expel!cli.!lJ.r~~f~l"~19~w~}'~ NCBP LGFl LPTRAT LFEDl LBONDl LAFPRT P9PTPER Variable GRUSCPI PCNCl proportion of ANCSA payments paid directly to individuals;percent ..···based·upon a 10\distribution to Stockholders in village corporations and a 45\distribution to at-large stockholders;see Alaska Native Land Claims.Arnold 9-6 IJ Variable PCNC2 PCNC3 PCOlART PDRATI06 PDUSCPI6 PIPADJ PITRAN6 PR.DPIU6 RlPTX RlTEB6 RlTFPX RlTHA6 RlTMCAP Definition proportion of recurring income from petroleum development on Native lands paid directly in individuals;percent proportion of earnings on Native corporation accumulated capital paid directly to individuals;percent cost of living differential for federal employees;percentage initial values for ratio of Alaskan relative price index to U.S.consumer price index initial value for U.S.consumer price index;index ratio of "enclave"to regular construc- tion employee wage rate known historical values for transfers component of personal income initial value for U.S.real per capita disposable personal income;$ exogenous local property tax receipts; million $ known historical values for state aid to local government for education net of district and REAA aid petroleum-related federal-local transfers; mi 11 ion $ known historical values for state-local transfers under municipal assistance municipal capital grants from state to 9-7 Institute of Social and Economic Research HAP Documentation December 1984,Model ASS.1 Source author's estimate author's estimate author's estimate historical data historical data assumed constant based upon ratio of wages paid to heavy construction and all other construction categories during Alyeska pipeline construction period;see Alaska Department of labor, Statistical Quarterly historical data historical data zero in default case historical data author's estimate historical data author's estimate Variable RLTRS6 RLTX RMISRES6 Definition known historical values for state-local revenue sharing exogenous state-local transfers;million $ known historical values for miscellaneous restricted general fund revenues Institute of Social and Economic Research HAP Documentation December 1984.Model ASS.1 Source historical data zero in default case historical data historical data va 1ues cieri ved from income distribution model;currently inoperative author's estimate DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT·SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO author's estimate initial values for total federal grants- in-aid to state general fund;million $ Native personal income as percent of total personal income calculated using income distribution model state petroleum property tax;million $ state petroleum bonuses;million $ state petroleum rents before Permanent Fund deduction;million $ exogenous miscellaneous petroleum revenues;million $ petroleum production taxes consisting of oil and gas severance tax;million $ ...··statepet1"01 euml"oyaltyl"evenues ; million $ RPBS RNATX RPPS RSFDN6 RP9X RPEN RPTS RSFDNCAX federaT-grant;.-=rn:..aTdto·state generaf--·.-.-author'sestlmate ··---·-·--··-·runcf·for cap Hal expenartures -.--------.--.----- RSFDNPX federal-state shared petroleum royalties; million $ author's estimate RSFDNX RSIG6 RSIPS RTCSPX exogenous federal-state transfer payments;·milli on$ known historical values for state general fund interest state Permanent Fund interest--initia1 adjustment;mi Hion $ state corporate tax receipts from petroleum sector;million $ 9-8 default value is zero historical data ADR.Revenue Sources DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO , J I } j j Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation Decenber 1984.Model ASS.1 Source historical data historical data 16 percent of state royalty revenues until $493.1 million paid out historical data zero in default case author's estimate default value is zero zero in default case zero in default case author's estimate DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO author's estimate zero in default case zero in default case 'A-fRaf1iU.f,i*t;up+n(J-rea-I--------;z~eM'r!Qol_1_li n+-QdefallJu+ltt---{c;aa£see------------ Variable Definition RTCSX exogenous corporate income tax; mi 11 ion $ i RTISXX adjustment of disposable income to cover "lag in refund in state personal incomeI J taxes after repeal;million $ RTOTS6 known historical values for other state taxes (fiduciary.inheritance.estate. mining.conservation.prepaid.&fish taxes) SANCSA payments to Alaska Natives under ANCSA out of state royalty revenues;million $ SANCSAX special state appropriation to payoff ANSCA debt TCRED individual tax credit beginning after 12/31/77;dollars TOURIST number of tourist visitors to Alaska; thousands .TXBASE change in the floor of personal income tax rate schedule;units TXCRPC state personal income tax credit (percentage of tax liability) adjustment;percentage TXPTXX allows model user to withhold from state expenditures a portion of any personal income tax reduction;percent TXRT percentage change in state·personal income tax rate;percentage UUS U.S.unemployment rate;percent VAEX6 value of a personal exemption on personal income tax;dollars WEUS6 initial value for average weekly U.S. I wage rate;$ j XXMXl large projeet+an manufacturing real gross product YR year 9-9 ·1 \1 :I ~. J I I .l. .....__•.•.••.==~==.••===::==_.J___~..._~_._~~~_._.....__~~~~.I '..1· l I ,.I I ,,I r Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 10.Programs for Model Use A85.1RUN Sets searches and calls state model for simulation A85DBCOM Prints initial year selected variables historical data tables simulation values for comparison for to A85PRE A85PRFIN A85PRFOT A85PRPOP A85PRSCN Prints summary tables of output of economic model Prints summary tables of inputs of fiscal model Prints summary tables of output of fiscal model Prints detailed output from the demographic module Prints model inputs from the scenario generator A85SIMAD Macro describing all necessary for simulation model adjustments A85XPAR A84DEFLT Prints model economic parameter values Deflates user-specified simulation output to 1984 real dollars using PDCPI A84INIT Prints selected simulation results compares values to actual historical prints difference and percent difference and data; A84MERGE A84RUNCD A84RUNH A84TRANS Combines individual historical data archives into a single archive called AKDATA Sets searches and calls regionalization model (A84.CD)for disaggregation of employment and population to census division level. Sets searches and calls model for historical simulation Performs transformations on raw data files to create archive AKHIST NOTE:Programs (MACROs)without A85 prefLx have not been updated for this version of the model. 10-1 A83REG LOOK Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984"Model A8S.1 Sets searches for regression analysis Lists all archives in specified account I~:l ,) 'l" ~.- i '1 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 11.Model Adjustments for Simulation After preliminary estimation of all parameters and construction of the model as well as whenever significant new data becomes available,the model must be adjusted for simulation.The objectives of the adjustments are to initialize the model so that simulation values begin as closely as possible to actual historical values,to correct any imbalances within the model structure which show up in initial simulations,or to handle special conditions which arise each year as the structure of the economy evolves. Model initialization is difficult because the data for a particular year becomes available over a period of more than one year.Thus, at any point in time the most current historical data available will vary over a two-year period,depending upon the variable and source.As a general rule,the most important variables for initializing the model are employment in total and by sector,total population,wage rates by industry,and the price level. Adjustments and initialization procedures used in the economic and fiscal modules for A85.1 are as follows: Price ratio eguation.The term relating the relative Alaskan price level (PDRATIO)to the growth in local support sector employment (C67A)has the correct sign and is significant in the regression but in simulation performs poorly.Its value is decreased (to -.007)so that the Alaskan price level is less responsive to growth in support employment.The rationale for this adjustment is that the Alaskan price level is sticky downward,and the recent historical trend,reflecting downward pressure on Alaskan relative prices,must moderate in the future. This equation is also adjusted to incorporate the possibility of a one-time upward adjustment in some future year,using the coefficient C67C,resulting from a reimposition of the state personal income tax.This change would be essentially symmetrical, but opposite in sign,to the fall in the price level which occurred in 1980 when the tax was eliminated. State and local government wage rate equations.The equations used to simulate state and local government wage rates are altered so that the real wage in these sectors never falls below the level of the previous year. Exogenous construction employment.In simulation,EMCNRT is defined as nonzero only when the change is significant from the previous year. Fede.r;al civilian wage rate equation.The elasticity of the federal civilian wage rate with respect to the real wage is reduced to 1.025 in simulation (C89B).This requires that the intercept (C89A)be initialized. 11-1 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A8S.1 Migration eguation.The migration equation estimation procedure contains a correction for autocorrelation.The autocorrelation coefficient is not utilized in simulation for two reasons.Net migration is initialized on tl)e most recent data value which is an estimate rather than an observed value.Also,the influence of the autocorrelation term quickly falls to zero in a few years and can consequently be ignored in the long-run MAP model. High wage exogenous construction income.Because the endogenous construction gross product equation was estimated on construction net of North Slope,petroleum-related construction activity consistency required setting R.DPI8X to zero in simulation. lI ,/'I Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A8S.1 12.Key to Regressions ---Range !'(may vary with I II Variable Symbol particular variable) 'j State operating budget component EXaaa 1962 to 1981 state personnel expenditure component EXPRaaa 1962 to 1981 state revenues Raaa various Local revenues and expenditures RLaa,ELaa various Wage rates WRaa 1961 to 1982 Gross product XXaa 1961 to 1982 Employment EMaa 1961 to 1982- Migration POPMIG 1971 to 1982 NOTES:1.Regressions are run on a version of the model called REG84.2.See Section 11 for explanation of differences between the regression and simulation models. 2.Regressions are based upon the database as of the fall of 1984. 12-1 !J J ·.1 ~:) :) ,'~J ,I \J :'J i) '} ,~ ---------"----_.----------------~------~-~---------------_.__.._._-----~---~-------~--------~~ ------:) } I I :I ~1 i I Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A8S.1 13.Input Data Archives Historical Data AKDATA AKRAWI AKRAW2 AKRAW3 AKRAW4 All historical data series which are either (l)used in regression analysis,(2)are required to provide a startup value for simulation,or (3)interesting and relevant but not used in the model or not necessary to model ~imulation (created by MACRO A83MERGE from raw data files)..'I Raw employment and wages data from Alaska Department of Labor,Statistical Quarterly. Raw state expenditures data from Office of the Governor,Executive Budget. Raw state budget data from Alaska Department of Administration,Annual Financial Report. Raw state revenue data from Alaska Department of Revenue ,~R~e:.:v..::e::.:;n:.:::u:.:::e::..-~S:.:::o:.:::u:.:r..::c:.::e:.::s:..--..::a::.n:.::d:..--..::P..::e::.::t::.::r..::o~l::.::e:.::u~m:.l.-~R:.::e::.:v::.::e:::.:n~u=e Forecast. AKRAWS Raw state income data from Commerce,Bureau of Economic printouts. u.S.Department of Analysis,unpublished AKRAW6 AKRAW7 AKRAW8 AKRAW9 AKRAWI 0 AKRAWl1 Raw local fiscal data from U.S.Department of Commerce,Bureau of Census,Government Finances and state Government Finances. Raw data from miscellaneous sources. Alaskan gross state product data from model IPDAK. National variables from various sources. Raw local government data from Alaska Department of Community and Regional Affairs,Alaska Taxable. Miscellaneous data from Alaska Department of Labor AKRAW12 New miscellaneous construction. data and data files under AKHIST Data created by transformations of raw data in archives AKRAWI to AKRAW12 (using A83TRANS). 13-1 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A8S.1 Simulation Data CONHIST CONTROL startup and control data specifically used for historical simulation of the economic model. Default values for all exogenous and policy variables for projective simulation (except the state capital stock module).In certain instances,historical data is also included.Many of these variables are overridden in simulation by the scenario model output. which a complete for use in non- (TROLL FORECAST do not exist, Values for endogenous variables for historical series does not exist simultaneous historical simulation procedure).Where historical values estimates are used. FCAST FLAT2 STARTUP Constant levels for exogenous employment variables used to test model steady state properties. Startup values for all endogenous variables in the economic and fiscal components of the model for which a complete historical time series (up to the last year before the first year of simulation)does not exist. The values contained in these data files are values specifically created for model simulation and should--not-be--·1.l.secf f-oranY-oth-erp1.l.rpose ~-Inm()sf cases-;t'tie specific value for the variable is inunaterial to the output of the simulation since the purpose of these variables is to give TROLL an initial value from which to search for a solution to the simulation. , j .) ,1 POPST3 Startup values for all endogenous variables in the population component of the model for which a complete historical time series (up to the last year before the -----f-irst-year--of-s-imu-l-at-ion-)-does-nob---ex-is-t:-.--!fch-is---------- includes estimated 1980,1981,and 1982 population by age,race,and sex on an average annual bas is (in contrast to the census which uses an April 1 definition).The procedure for creation of this archive is as follows: .L The population module was .simulated for one full year,starting from the April 1"1980,population but with average annual 1980 employment and wage data. :J'. =0.2S*[Popijk(1981)-POPijk(1980)] 2.The average contained in formula: POPST3_POPijk annual 1980 population POPST3,were computed estimates, using the i ) [ 13-2 CAPSTK Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A8S.1 where POPST3_POPijk is the average 1980 population of sex i in age cohort j and race k;POPijk(1981) is the simulated 1981 population cohort,and popijk(1980)is the census April 1,1980,cohort. 3.The population module was then simulated for two years (1981 and 1982)under the restriction that total civilian population matched the July 1 Alaska Department of Labor population estimates. This produces population -estimates by age,sex, and race for 1981 and 19a2,allowing full model simulation to begin in 1983J Startup and control data specifically for the state capital stock module. 13-3 'J .J :1· "I ,~J 1 .~1'. j I ,j ) i ,I ;\- !. I I,I, Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 APPENDIX A ISER MAP ALASKA ECONOMIC MODEL: EQUATION LIST 1.Fiscal Module 2.Economic Module 3.Demographic Module 4.Native Economic Activity Module 5.Definitional Equations Module 6.Links to Income Distribution Model Module 7.State Government Capital Stock Module MODEL:A85.1 PURPOSE:This model calculates annual statewide economic,fiscal,and demographic output based on user-specified input assumptions. DATE:December 1984 I I, SYMBOL DECLARATIONS ENDOGENOUS: ADMSD AEX AGI AHG ATD ATI ATI.TT ATT BALCAP84 BALDF BALGFAFA BALGFCP BALGFP BALGF9 BALPF BAL99 BAL99AFA BIU BL CEA9N CECMN CECNN CED9N CEFIN CEGAN CEGFN CEM9N CEPUN CEP9N CES9N CET9N CNNPF1 CNNPF10 CNNPF11 CNNPF12 CNNPF13 CNNPF14 CNNPF15 CNNPF2 CNNPF3 CNNPF4 CNNPF5 CNNPF6 CNNPF7 CNNPF8 CNNPF9 CNNPM1 CNNPM10 CNNPMll CNNPM12 CNNPM13 CNNPM14 CNNPMI5 CNNPM2 CNNPM3 CNNPM4 CNNPM5 CNNPM6 CNNPM7 CNNPM8 CNNPM9 COLA DEBTP83 DF.RSVP DPI DPIRES DPI8 ELBD ELED ELEDCP ELEDl ELNEDI ELPERS EL99 EMAFISH EMA9 EMCM EMCN EMCNRT EMCNX EMCNl EMDR EMDRNT EMDTOUR EMDW EMD9 EMFI EMGA EMGF EMGL EMGS EMMO EMM9 EMPRO EMPROFIS EMPROI EMPU EMRATE EMRATNI EMSB EMSP EMSTOUR EMSUP EMS8NT EMS9 EMS91 EMTCU EMTNT EMTOUR EMTTOUR EMT9 EMT9I EMX EM9INFR EM96 EM97 EM98 EM99 EXANSAV EXCAP EXCAPFR EXCDS EXCDSNT EXCDS4 EXCPS EXCPSFED EXCPSHY EXCPSM EXCPSNH EXCIO EXCIS EXC4 EXC5 EXC7 EXDFCON EXDFWITH EXDSS EXEDS EXEDS4 EXGF EXGFBM EXGFCHY EXGFCNH EXGFCOT EXGGS EXGGS4 EXHES EXHES4 EXINREC EXINRECB EXJUS EXJUS4 EXLIM EXLIMOK EXNOPS EXNRS EXNRS4 EXOPS EXPFCON EXPFCONI EXPPS EXPPS4 EXPRCDS EXPREDSI EXPRGGS EXPRHES EXPRJUS EXPRNRS EXPRPPS EXPRSSS EXPRTRS EXPRUA EXPR99 EXSAVS EXSSS EXSSS4 EXSUBS EXTRNS EXTRS EXTRS4 EXUA EX99S E'AGI A-I Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A8S.1 FAGII G.EMSP GOBONOL GOOT GRGTR IM.BAL IM.BALRV LPTB LPTBI MIGIN MIGOUT MILPCT NATPFI NATPFIO NATPFll NATPF12 NATPF13 NATPF14 NATPFIS NATPF2 NATPF3 NATPF4 NATPFS NATPF6 NATPF7 NATPF8 NATPF9 NATPMl NATPMIO NATPM11 NATPM12 NATPM13 NATPM14 NATPM15 NATPM2 NATPM3 NATPM4 NATPMS NATPM6 NATPM7 NATPM8 NATPM9 NCCAP NCCI NCPI P .OPINN POCON POEXOPS PORATIO PDRPI POUSCPI PI PIOIR PIOLI PIPROF PIPROI PlRADJ PISSC PITRAN PITRANI PI3 PI8 POP POPC POPGER POPM POPMIG POPNE POPSKUL PR.BALCP PR.OPINN PR.OPIUS PR.PI PR.PI3 R.BALCAP R.CAP1 R.CAPIO R.CAPl1 R.CAP12 R.CAP13 R.CAP14 R.CAPIS R.CAP2 R.CAP3 R.CAP4 R.CAPS R.CAP6 R.CAP7 R.CAP8 R.CAP9 R.OPI R.OPI8N R.OPI8X R.WR97 RLMC RLOT RLPTI RLTCS RLTCS4 RLTEB RLTEB4 RLTEF4 RLTEO RLTE04 RLTET RLTET4 RLTE99 RLTE994 RLTF RLTHA RLTMA4 RLTMS RLTRS RLTRS4 RLTT9 RLTT94 RLTVS4 RLT99 RMIS RMISRES ROFAS ROFERS ROFOS RSFON RSFFS RSFSI RSGF RSGFBM RSIAS RSIP RSIPGF RTAS RTBS2 RTCIS RTCSI RTIS RTISC RTISCAI RTISCA2 RTISCP RTISLOS RTMF RTOTS RTPIF RTSS RTVS R99S TPTV VAEX WEALTH WEUS WRA9 WRCM WRCN WRCNNP WRCNP WROR WROW WR09 WRFI WRGA.WRGC WRGF WRGL WRGM WRGS WRM91 WRPU WRP9 WRSB wRSNB WRS9 WRT9 WR98 WSCN WSCNP WSGA WSGC WSGL WSGM WSGS WSGSFY WS97 WS98 nA9 XXCM XXCN XXCNI XXCN8 XXOR XXORNT XXOW XX09 XXFI XXGA XXGF XXMO XXMX2 XXPU XXP9 XXSB XXS8NT XXS9 XXTNT XXT9 XXVHY XXVNHY XX98 CONSTRUCT: ...·DF~.AP·GFCDF •APGFO OF~BALOF OF.BALGF .DF.BALPF ---DF·.-BAL9·9 .-.OE.OPI OF.EL99 OF.EXOSS OF.EXGF OF.EXGFB OF.EXLOK OF.GOXBM OF.PI OF.RLPT OF.RLT99 OF.RP9S OF.RP9SG OF.RSEN OF.RSENG OF.RSFO OF.RSGF OF.RSGFA OF.RSGFB OF.RSGFG OF.RSION OF.RSIGN OF.RSIN OF.RSIP OF.RSIPG OF.RSIPN OF.RTCSI OF •.RTI~•...DF •R9~S OF.WRG9 OF.WRNS OF.WRSP OF.WSG9 OF.WSNS OF.WSSP OF.WS98 OFP.APGC OFP.APGO OFP.BAL9 OFP.OPI,OFP.EXGF OFP.EXLK OFP.PI EM.EMCN EM.EMGA EM.EMGF EM.EMSP EM.EMSUP EM.EMTCU EX.OSS EX.NRP9 .-------E'1f.RP9S----EX-.RSEN-----EX •RSIN---.EX •R9_9S.__.__EXBM.•.C.@ .....$!J:H~.!_E1'!D __._.I!:~!!M:.!I) -----EXBM·.·GR1--EXBM.•.RV__G_._BAL.9.PC G.BAL99 G.EL99 G .EM99 G.EX99S G.PORPI G.POP G.PR.OPI G.PR.PI G.R.WR98 G.RNSPC G.RSEN G.SRPC------~­ IM.BALPC IM.BALR IM.BAL99 IM.BLRPC 1M.REV INK.OI INX.OINN INK.OI8N INK.Sl INK.S2 INK.WG P.BALPF P.BAL99 P.OPINNI P.ELEO P •ELNEOI P •EL99 P.EXBM P.EXCAP P •EXOPS P.EXTRNS P •EX99S P.GEXP P.GOOT P.PI P.PIN P.PINCL P.PINN P.RLT99 P.RSEN P.RSIN P.RSIP P.RTIS P.R99S PI.OPI PI.EL99 PI.EXL PI.EXS PI.EXT PI.EX99S PI.GOOT.PI.RLPT .J>I.RL99 PI.RSEN.PI.TXL PI.TXS ·PI;WS98 POP.AO POP.ClV .....POP.GERPOP.KIO ..POP.MIL.POP.NAT PR.BALGI PR.BALG2 PR.BALPF PR.BALP2 ·····pi~-.BAL9~f·-PR.DP!PR;OPIN PR.OPI8N PR.ECP PR.ECPN PR.ELEO PR.ELEOC PR.ELNEO PR.EL99 PR.EXBM PR.EXCAP PR.EXCOS PR.EXEOS PR.EXGGS PR.EXHES PR.EXJUS PR.EXNRS PR.EXOPS PR.EXPPS PR.EXSSS PR.EXTRS PR.EX99S PR.GEXP PR.GFC PR.GFCN.PR.GOOT PR.NCEXP PR.PIN PR.PINCL PR.PINN PR.RLT99 PR.RSEN PR.RSIN PR.RSIP PR.RTIS PR.R99S R.PI R.PIN I.J ,\,J --I '1 :·1 ;I 'I ~ 1 :f r'f v ':j ~} \f 'r i i Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A8s.1 R.PINN R.WR98 RL99.PT RL99.RT RS.FED RS.PET RS.REC RS.RP9S RS.RSEN RS.RSIN RSBM.B99 RSBM.GF RSBM.PET RSBM.PF RSBM.REN RSBM.RP9 U.AK.US WR.AK.US ZO.O ZO.l ZO.2 ZO.3 ZO.4 ZO.S ZO.6 ZO.7 ZO.8 ZO.9 Z1.0 Zl.1 Zl.2 Zl.3 Zl.4 Zl.5 Zl.6 Zl.7 Zl.8 Zl.9 Z10.0 Z10.1 Z10.2 ZlO.3 ZlO.4 ZlO .5 ZlO .6 ZlO.7 Z10.8 ZlO.9 Z1l.0 Zll.l Zll.2 Zll.3 Zll.4 Zll.s Zll.6 Zll.7 Zll.8 Zll.9 Z2.0 Z2.l Z2.2 Z2.3 Z2.4 Z2.S Z2.6 Z2.7 Z2 .S Z2 .9 Z3 .0 Z3 .1 Z3 .2 Z3 .3 Z3 .4 Z3 .5 Z3 .6 Z3 . 7 Z3 .S Z3 .9 Z4 .0 Z4 .1 Z4 .2 Z4 .3 Z4 .4 Z4 .5 Z4 .6 Z4 . 7 Z4 .S Z4 .9 ZS .0 Zs .1 ZS .2 ZS .3 ZS .4 ZS .5 ZS .6 ZS . 7 ZS .8 ZS .9 Z6 .0 Z6 .1 Z6 . 2 Z6 .3 Z6 .4 Z6 .5 Z6 . 6 Z6 . 7 Z6 .S Z6 .9 Z7.0 Z7.1 Z7.2 Z7.3 Z7.4 Z7.S Z7.6 Z7.7 Z7.S ZS.O ZS.l ZS.2 ZS.3 ZS.4 ZS.5 ZS.6 ZS.7 ZS.S ZS.9 Z9.0 Z9.1 Z9.2 Z9.3 Z9.4 Z9.s Z9.6 Z9.7 Z9.S Z9.9 Z9.l0 DEFINITION: ADMDIS ADMREA APGF APGFCAP APGFOPS BALCAB BALCABGF BALLANDS BALOCAL BCRUDE BTHTOT BTOT CBR CDR CFl CFlO CFll CFl2 CFl3 CFl4 CFls CF2 CF3 CF4 CFs CF6 CF7 CFS CF9 CHHFlO CHHFll CHHFl2 CHHFl3 CHHFl4 CHHFls CHHF4 CHHFs CHHF6 CHHF7 CHHFS CHHF9 CHHMlO CHHMll CHHMl2 CHHMl3 CHHMl4 CHHMls CHHM4 CHHMs CHHM6 CHHM7 CHHMS CHHM9 CMl CMlO CMll CMl2 CMl3 CMl4 CM1s CM2 CM3 CM4 CMS CM6 CM7 CMS CM9 CNNTOT DCRUDE DELEMP DF.RSI99 DTHINF DTHTOT DTOT EMCU EMG9 EMNA EMNAT EMNC EMNNC EMNR EMNS EMOCSX EMRATN EM9BASE EM9GOV EM9SUPRT EXBUD EXCAPNEW EXCAPOT EXCAPREP EXCNT EXCNl EXCNlO EXCNll EXCNl2 EXCNl3 EXCNl4 EXCNls EXCN2 EXCN3 EXCN4 EXCNs EXCN6 EXCN7 EXCNS EXCN9 EXCPSGOB EXCRFT EXCRFl EXCRFlO EXCRFll EXCRFl2 EXCRFl3 EXCRF14 EXCRFls EXCRF2 EXCRF3 EXCRF4 EXCRFS EXCRF6 EXCRF7 EXCRF8 EXCRF9 EXCRLT EXCRLl EXCRLlO EXCRLll EXCRLl2 EXCRLl3 EXCRL14 EXCRLls EXCRL2 EXCRL3 EXCRL4 EXCRLS EXCRL6 EXCRL7 EXCRLS EXCRL9 EXCRST EXCRSl EXCRSlO EXCRSll EXCRS12 EXCRSl3 EXCRSl4 EXCRSls EXCRS2 EXCRS3 EXCRS4 EXCRSs EXCRS6 EXCRS7 EXCRSS EXCRS9 EXCRTT EXCRTl EXCRTlO EXCRTll EXCRTl2 EXCRTl3 EXCRTl4 EXCRTls EXCRT2 EXCRT3 EXCRT4 EXCRTS EXCRT6 EXCRT7 EXCRTS EXCRT9 EXCRUT EXCRUl EXCRUlO EXCRUll EXCRUl2 EXCRU13 EXCRUl4 EXCRU1s EXCRU2 EXCRU3 EXCRU4 EXCRUs EXCRU6 EXCRU7 EXCRUS EXCRU9 EXCT EXCl EXClOl EXCll EXCl2 EXCl3 EXCl4 EXC2 EXC3 EXC6 EXCS EXC9 EXEDSNT EXGF.AFR EXGFCAP EXGFCAPl EXGFOPS EXGFOT.A EXHYCAP EXNHYCP EXOMFT EXOMFl EXOMFlO EXOMFll EXOMFl2 EXOMFl3 EXOMFl4 EXOMFls EXOMF2 EXOMF3 EXOMF4 EXOMFs EXOMF6 EXOMF7 EXOMFS EXOMF9 EXOMLT EXOMLl EXOMLlO EXOMLll EXOMLl2 EXOMLl3 EXOMLl4 EXOMLls EXOML2 EXOML3 EXOML4 EXOMLs EXOML6 EXOML7 EXOMLS EXOML9 EXOMST EXOMSl EXOMSlO EXOMS1l EXOMSl2 EXOMSl3 EXOMSl4 EXOMSls EXOMS2 EXOMS3 EXOMS4 EXOMSs EXOMS6 EXOMS7 EXOMSS EXOMS9 EXOMTT EXOMTl EXOMTlO EXOMTll EXOMTl2 EXOMTl3 EXOMTl4 EXOMTls EXOMT2 EXOMT3 ---------------EKGMT4 EXOMTS EXOMT6 EXOMT7 EXOMTS EXOMT9 EXOMUT EXOMUl EXOMUlO EXOMU11 EXOMU12 EXOMU13 EXOMU14 EXOMUls EXOMU2 EXOMU3 EXOMU4 EXOMUs EXOMU6 EXOMU7 EXOMUS EXOMU9 EXOM84 EXPFCON9 A-3 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 EXRP84 EXSPLIT HH HHC HHF10 HHF11 HHF12 HHF13 HHF14 HHF15 HHF4 HHF5 HHF6 HHF7 HHF8 HHF9 HHM HHM10 HHM11 HHM12 HHM13 HHM14 HHM15 .HHM4 HHMS HHM6 HHM7 HHM8 HHM9 HHN HHSIZE HHSIZEC HHSIZEM HHSIZEN HH24 HH25.29 HH30.54 HH55 LF LPTBFV LPTBP9 LPTB1FV NAPF1 NAPF2 NAPF3 NAPF4 NAPF5 NAPF6 NAPF7 NAPM1 NAPM2 NAPM3 NAPM4 NAPMS NAPM6 NAPM7 NAT INC NATTOT NBTHTOT NCBR NCDR NCEXP NCF1 NCF10 NCF11 NCF12 NCF13 NCF14 NCF15 NCF2 NCF3 NCF4 NCF5 NCF6 NCF7 NCF8 NCF9 NCM1 NCM10 NCM11 NCM12 NCM13 NCM14 NCM15 NCM2 NCM3 NCM4 NCMS NCM6 NCM7 NCM8 NCM9 NCWS NDTHINF NDTHTOT NEMA9N NEMCMN NEMCNN NEMD9N NEMFIN NEMGAN NEMGFN NEMM9N NEMPUN NEMP9N NEMS9N NEMT9N NHHF10 NHHF11 NHHF12 NHHF13 NHHF14 NHHF15 NHHF4 NHHF5 NHHF6 NHHF7 NHHF8 NHHF9 NHHM10 NHHM11 NHHM12 NHHM13 NHHM14 NHHM15 NHHM4 NHHMS NHHM6 NHHM7 NHHM8 NHHM9 NNATINC NNPF1 NNPF2 NNPF3 NNPF4 NNPF5 NNPF6 NNPF7 NNPM1 NNPM2 NNPM3 NNPM4 NNPMS NNPM6 NNPM7 NWSA9N NWSCMN NWSCNN NWSD9N NWSFIN NWSGAN NWSGFN NWSM9N NWSPUN NWSP9N NWSS9N NWST9N P.BALGF9 PF PFN PIL PIN PINN PIN1 PIPRO .PLFDOMC PLFDOMM PLFDOMN PLFD9 PM PMN POPADS POPAVAGE POPCGQ POPF1 POPF10 POPF11 POPF12 POPF13 POPF14 POPF15 POPF2 POPF3 POPF4 POPF5 POPF6 POPF7 POPF8 POPF9 POPGQ POPKIDS POPM1POPM10 POPM11 POPM12 POPM13 POPM14 POPM15 POPM2 POPM3 POPM4 POPMS POPM6 POPM7 POPM8 POPM9 POPNGQ POPNI9 PPVAL PRINT PTBP9 R.CAPT RATI01 RAT 1 RLPT RLTEA RLTEA4 RLTEC RLTEC4 RLTEF RLTOT RLTOT4 RLTVS RL99 RL991 RNAT ROFTS RORCRF RPBSGF RPENGF RPRYGF RP7S RP7SGF RP7SPF RP9S RP9SGF RSBM.EXD RSEN RSENGF RSFDNPXG RSFS-.__._._-__~--------•.._--_._-------___.__----~~--__------_..-.-----.~--_._-_._._--~--"---_._---_.._--------_.~---- RSGF.AFR RSGFGAP RSGFRS RSID RSIDNET RSIG RSIGNET ·RSIN RSIPNET RSIPPF RSIPPF1 RSI99 RSI99NET RTBS RTBS1 RTCS RTISCA RT99 SLGEXP THGUNEMP UNEMRATE WRCUWRGCN -WRGCU WRGD9 WRGFI WRGGA WRGGC WRGMS WRGM9 WRGP9 WRGS9 WRGT9 WRMX1 WRM9 WR97 WSA9 WSCM WSD9 WSFI WSGF WSMX1"-WSM9 WSNAWSPU WSP9 WSS9 WSS91 WST9 WS98L XXCNX XXM9 XXVACAP Xl X2 X3 X4 X5 X6 ----ANeSA-BADD-BAbDF6---BAI.GIi'6--BAI.PF6----BASEMGNX---BASEPOP-BASEXCAP-------~­ BAS EXGF BAS EXOPS BASPDRPI BIU6 D.80DEC6 D61.64 D61.66 D61.67 D61.68 D61.69 D61.70 D61.72 D61.73 D61.74 D61.75 D61.76 D61.77 D61.81 D64.65 D68.71 D69 D71.00 D71.73 D72 D73 D74.75 D75 D79 D80 D81.00 D82 EMNATX EXCPSFD6 EXCPSGB6 EXDSSX EXGFCAP6 EXGFCOT6 EXOPS6 EXPFDVX1 EXPFDVX2 EXTRNSPI EXUA6 GODTX LPTRAT _NCBP __NCRP PCNCL _PCNC2__PCNC3 __PCOLART PDRATI06 PDUSCPI6 PIPADJ PITRAN6PR.DPIU6"P9PTPER RLTEB6 -RhTMA.6-RLTRS6RMISREStS"RNA'l'X-----RSFDNCAX-RSFDNtS---RS-IG6---RSIP5 RTISXX RTOTS6 SANCSA SANCSAX TCRED TXBASE TXCRPC TXPTXX TXRT VAEX6 WEUS6 XXMX1 YR A-4 tI., [ .l Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A8S.l POLICY: APPFCONX BALGFUNA EMAGRI EMAUN EMCNXI EMCNX2 EMFISH EMGC EMGM EMMXl EMMX2 EMP9 EMT9X EXDFPCNT EXDFI EXGFOPSX EXPFCONX EXPFDIST EXPFTOGF EXPFI EXSAVX EXSPCAP EXSPLITX EXSUBSX EXSUBI EXSUB2 EXTRNSX GRDIRPU GREXCAP GREXOPS GRRPCEX GRRWEUS GRSSCP GRUSCPI LAFPRT LBONDI LBONDlO LBONDII LBOND12 LBOND13 LBOND14 LBONDlS LBOND2 LBOND3 LBOND4 LBONDS LBOND6 LBOND7 LBOND8 LBOND9 LFEDI LFEDlO LFEDII LFED12 LFED13 LFED14 LFEDlS LFED2 LFED3 LFED4 LFEDS LFED6 LFED7 LFED8 LFED9 LGFI LGFlO LGFll LGF12 LGF13 LGF14 LGFlS LGF2 LGF3 LGF4 LGFS LGF6 LGF7 LGF8 LGF9 LMUNCAP LSGFI LSGFlO LSGFll LSGF12 LSGF13 LSGF14 LSGFlS LSGF2 LSGF3 LSGF4 LSGFS LSGF6 LSGF7 LSGF8 LSGF9 OMFI OMFlO OMFII OMFl2 OMF13 OMFl4 OMFlS OMF2 OMF3 OMF4 OMFS OMF6 OMF7 OMF8 OMF9 OMLI OMLlO OMLII OML12 OML13 OML14 OMLlS OML2 OML3 OML4 OMLS OML6 OML 7 OML8 OML9 OMS 1 OMSIO OMSII OMSl2 OMSl3 OMSl4 OMSIS OMS2 OMS3 OMS4 OMSS OMS6 OMS 7 OMS8 OMS 9 OMUI OMUIO OMUII OMU12 OMUl3 OMUl4 OMUIS OMU2 OMU3 OMU4 OMUS OMU6 OMU7 OMU~OMU9 RCDEPI RCDEPlO RCDEPll RCDEP12 RCDEPl3 RCDEP14 RCDEP2 RCDEP3 RCDEPS RCDEP6 RCDEP7 RCDEP8 RCDEP9 REPFI REPFlO REPFll REPFl2 REPFl3 REPF14 REPFlS REPF2 REPF3 REPF4 REPFS REPF6 REPF7 REPF8 REPF9 REPLI REPLIO REPLII REPL12 REPLl3 REPL14 REPLIS REPL2 REPL3 REPL4 REPLS REPL6 REPL7 REPL8 REPL9 REPSI REPSlO REPSII REPS12 REPS13 REPSl4 REPS IS REPS2 REPS3 REPS4 REPSS REPS6 REPS7 REPS8 REPS9 REPUI REPUlO REPUll REPUl2 REPU13 REPU14 REPUIS REPU2 REPU3 REPU4 REPUS REPU6 REPU7 REPU8 REPU9 RLPTX RLTFPX RT..TMCAP RLTX RPBS RPEN RPPS RPRY RPTS RP9X RSFDNPX RSFDNX RTCSPX RTCSX TOURIST UUS i I COEFFICIENT: CMIGI CMIG2 CMIG3 CMIG4 CIA ClB CIC CIOA ClOB ClOC CIOOA ClOOB CIOOC CIOIA CIOIB ClO2A ClO2B CI02C CI02D CI02F CI03A ClO3B ClO3C CI04A CI04B CIOSA ClOSB ClOSC ClO6A ClO6B CI07A ClO7B ClO8A ClO8B ClO9A CI09B CllA CllB Cl2A Cl2B Cl4A C14B C14C CISA ClSB Cl6A Cl6B C16C C17A C17B C17C Cl8A Cl8B Cl8C Cl8D Cl9A C19B C2A C2B C20A C20B C2lA C2lB C2lC C22A C22B C23A C23B C23C C23D C24A C24B C2SA C2SB C26A C26B C26C C27A C27B C27C C28A C28B C28C C29A C29B C3A C3B C30A C30B C3lA C3lB C32A C32B C32C C32D C33A C33B C34A C34B C34C C3SA C3SB C36A C36B C36C C36D C36F C37A C37B C38A C38B C39A C39B C4A C4B C40A C40B C4lA C4lB C42A C42B C4~A C43B C43C C43D C43E C44A C44B C44C C44D C4SA C4SB C4SC C4SD C46A C46B C47A C47B C48A C48B C49A C49B CSA CSB CSOA CSOB CSIA CSIB CS2A CS2B CS3A CS3B CS3C cs:m CS3F CS4A CS4B CS4D CS4E CS4F CS4G CS4H CSSA CSSB CSSC CS6A CS6B CS6C CS7A CS7B CS7C CS8A CS8B CS9A CS9B CS9C CS9D CS9E CS9F C6A C6B C60A C60B C60C C6lA C6lB C62A C62B C62C C62D C62F C63A C63B C64A C64B C64C C64D C64E C6SA C6SB C66A C66B C66C C66D C66E C66F C67A C67B C67C C67D C68A A-S Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A8S.1 C68B C68C C68D C69A C69B C7A C7B C70A C70B C70C C70D C70E C70F C7lA C7lB c7ic C7lD C71E C72A C72B C72C C72D C73A C73B C74A C74B C74C C74D C74F C7SA C7SB C76A.C76B C76C C76D C76E C77A C77B C78A C78B C78C C78D C78E C78F C79A C79B C79D C79E C79F C8A C8B C80A C80B C80C C81A C81B C82A C82B C82C C82D C82F C83A C83C C83D C83E C84A C84B C84C C84D C8SA C8SB C86A C86B C86C C86D C86E C86F C87A C87B C88A C88B C88C C88D C88E C88F C88G C89A C89B·C9A C9B C9C C90A C90B C91A C91B C92A C92B C92C C92D C92F C93A C93B C94A C94B C96A C96B C97A C97B C98A C98B C99A C99B PARAMETER: AFTOT CPGQF1 CPGQF10 CPGQF11 CPGQF12 CPGQF13 CPGQF14 CPGQF1S CPGQF2 CPGQF3 CPGQF4 CPGQFS CPGqF6 CPGQF7 CPGQF8 CPGQF9 CPGQM1 CPGQM10 CPGQM11 CPGQM12 CPGQM13 CPGQM14 CPGQM1S CPGQM2 CPGQM3 CPGQM4 CPGQMS CPGQM6 'CPGQM7 CPGQM8 CPGQM9 EXANNU EXCAPIMP EXCAPOLD EXEL1 EXEL2 EXEL3 EXEL4 EXELS EXEL6 EXLIM82 EXOMCOST EXOPSIMP EXPF2 EXPF3 EXRLOP6 EXRLOP7 EXRLOP8 EXRL1 EXRL2 EXRL3 EXRL4 EXRL40P EXRLS FERT10 FERT11 FERT4 FERTS FERT6 FERT7 FERT8 FERT9 G1 G10 G11 G12 G13 G14 G1S G2 G3 G4 GS G6 G7 G8 G9 HHRF10 HHRF11 HHRF12 HHRFl3 HHRF14 HHRF1S HHRF4 HHRFS HHRF6 HHRF7 HHRF8 HHRF9 HHRMlO HHRM11 HHRM12 HHRM13 HHRMl4 HHRM1S HHRM4 HHRMS HHRM6 HHRM7 HHRM8 HHRM9 MDPF1 MDPF10 MDPF1l MDPF12 MDPF13 MDPFl4 MDPFlS MDPF2 -MDP-F'3 --MDPE4 MOPFS .MDE>FJ~liPPF7 ltQRF13 _m?l?I9 __MDI?~:l. MDPM10 MDPM11 MDPMl2 MOPM13 MDPM14 MDPM1S MDPM2 MDPM3 MDPM4 MDPMS MDPM6 MDPM7 MDPM8 MDPM9 MDTOT MF1 MF10 MFl1 MF12 MF13 MF14 MF1S MF2 MF3 MF4 MFS MF6 MF7 MF8 MF9 MHHFlO MHHFll MHHF12 MHHFl3 MHHFl4 MHHFlS MHHFS MHHF6 MHHF7 MHHF8 MHHF9 MHHMlO MHHM1l MHHMl2 MHHM13 MHHM14 MHHM1S MHHMS MHHM6 MHHM7 MHHM8 MHHM9 MILFl MILFlO MILF11 MILF12 MILF13 MILFl4 MILF1S MILF2 MILF3 MILF4 MILFS MILF6 MILF7 MILF8 MILF9 MILM1 MILM10 MILM11 MILM12 MILM13 MILM14 MILM1S MILM2 MILM3 .·----MILM4---MiLMS--iiILM6-MTLM7MILM8 -M:LtM9-_.MILRAT -MMr--MMIO---MMll - -~--~--------------;:MM=1-;;;;2-~--;-MM=1"3-"'MM~1-4-MMr5~~MM2-MM3-MM4-MM5-MM6--t-n~-7~---l-1M8--mi9------- NFERTlO NFERT1l NFERT4 NFERTS NFERT6 NFERT7 NFERT8 NFERT9 NHHRFlO NHHRFll NHHRF12 NHHRF13 NHHRFl4 NHHRF1S NHHRF4 NHHRFS NHHRF6 NHHRF7 NHHRF8 NHHRF9 NHHRM10 NHHRM1l NHHRM12 NHHRM13 NHHRM14 NHHRM1S NHHRM4 NHHRMS NHHRM6 NHHRM7 NHHRM8 NHHRM9 NMF1 NMF10 NMF1l NMF12 NMFl3 NMF14 NMF1S NMF2 NMF3 NMF4 NMFS NMF6 NMF7 NMF8 NMF9 NMM1-NMMl-O NMMI-lNMMl2-NMMl3 NMM14 NMM1S NMM2 NMM3 NMM4 NMMS NMM6 .NMM7 NMM8'NMM9 NPGQF1 NP-GQF1()NPGQF11 NPGQF12--NPGQF13-NPGQFl4NPGQFlS NPGQF2 NPGQF3 NPGQF4 NPGQFS NPGQF6 NPGQF7 NPGQF8 NPGQF9 NPGQM1 NPGQM10 NPGQM11 NPGQM12 NPGQM13 NPGQM14 NPGQMlS NPGQM2 NPGQM3 NPGQM4 NPGQMS NPGQM6 NPGQM7 NPGQM8 NPGQM9 NRCF10 NRCFl1 NRCF12 NRCF13 NRCF14 NRCFlS NRCF4 NRCFS NRCF6 NRCF7 NRCF8 NRCF9 NRCMlO NRCM11 NRCM12 NRCM13 NRCM14 NRCM1S NRCM4 NRCMS NRCM6 NRCM7 NRCM8 NRCM9 NSEXDIV NSF1 NSFlO NSF11 NSFl2 NSFl3 A-6 r '1 1 i \ 1 f ). j .~ II :) 'i } ! r Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A8S.1 NSF14 NSFIS NSF2 NSF3 NSF4 NSFS NSF6 NSF7 NSF8 NSF9 NSMI NSMIO NSM11 NSM12 NSM13 NSM14 NSMIS NSM2 NSM3 NSM4 NSMS NSM6 NSM7 NSM8 NSM9 NSURINFF NSURINFM NTP OEMFI OEMFIO oEMF 11 OEMF12 OEMF13 OEMF14 OEMFIS OEMF2 OEMF3 OEMF4 OEMFS OEMF6 oEMF 7 OEMF8 OEMF9 OEMMI OEMMIO OEMM11 OEMM12 OEMM13 OEMM14 OEMMIS OEMM2 OEMM3 OEMM4 OEMMS OEMM6 OEMM7 OEMM8 OEMM9 PADJ PADI PAD2 PARLVFV PARNONGF PBLTBL PBTRATE PCINDA PCIVPY PCNCSV PCNCSVI PCNCWS PCNC4 PCWSI PCWS2 PCYNAI PC12N PC12RN PDCONBAS PDRPIBAS PECIG PERNAI PERNA2 PERNA3 PESLT PESLTC PFISHI PIDIST PNTGR POPMGQ PRINT2 PTOURB PTOURD PTOURE PTOURS PTOURT PTRTS PWRBASE PI P2 P3 P4 PS P6 RCFIO RCFll RCF12 RCF13 RCF14 RCFlS RCF4 RCFS RCF6 RCF7 RCF8 RCF9 RCMIO RCMll RCM12 RCM13 RCM14 RCMlS RCM4 RCMS RCM6 RCM7 RCM8 RCM9 ROR RORANGRO RORBOND RORCPDEP RORDISK RORNC RORPDF RORPPF SEXDIV SFI SFIO SFll SF12 SF13 SF14 SFIS SF2 SF3 SF4 SFS SF6 SF7 SF8 SF9 SMI SMIO SMll SM12 SM13 SM14 SM1S SM2 SM3 SM4 SMS SM6 SM7 SM8 SM9 SURINFF SURINFM TP EQUATIONS National Variables 1:PR.DPIUS =IF YR LE 1983 THEN PR.DPIU6 ELSE PR.DPIUS(-l)* (l+GRDIRPU) 2:PDUSCPI =IF YR LE 1983 THEN PDUSCPI6 ELSE PDUSCPI(-l)* (l+GRUSCPI) 3:WEUS =IF YR LE 1983 THEN WEUS6 ELSE WEUS(-l)*(l+GRUSCPI+ GRRWEUS) Price Deflators 4:PDRATIO =IF YR.LE 1983 THEN PDRATI06 ELSE (IF RTIS(-2)-RTIS(-1) NE 0 AND RTIS(-2)EQ 0 AND G.EMSP GT 0 THEN PDRATIO(-l)+ C67A*(1+G.EMSP**O.S)+C67B*(EMCNRT/(EM98(-1)/(EM98-EMCNXl»)- C67C+C67D*(1+G.EMSP**O.S)*D68.71 ELSE (IF RTIS(-2)-RTIS(-1) NE 0 AND RTIS(-2)EQ 0 THEN PDRATIO(-1)+C67A+C67B*(EMCNRTI (EM98(-1)/(EM98-EMCNXl»)-C67C-C67D*D68.71 ELSE (IF G.EMSP LE o THEN PDRATIO(-1)+C67A+C67B*(EMCNRT/(EM98(-1)/(EM98-EMCNXl»)+ C67D*D68.71 ELSE PDRATIO(-1)+C67A*(1+G.EMSP**O.S)+C67B*(EMCNRTI (EM98(-1)/(EM98-EMCNXl»)+C67D*(1+G.EMSP**O.S)*D68.71») S:PDRPI =PDRATIO*PDUSCPI -------- ---------------&6T:--~P~D~E*XO~P~S~~SGSFY(l)/EXOPS(l)*(WRGA*lOO/PW~RBB~~.S~E~)HI~(~E*XO~P~S~(~l~)---------------­ WSGSFY(-l»/EXOPS(-l)*PDRPI A-7 FISCAL MODULE 24:-RP7SPF==RP7S....RP7SGF Institute of Social j and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 ,01 :"\ j 27:DF.RSVP =IF YR LT 1984 THEN 0 ELSE DF.RSVP(-1)+RP9S*(PDRPIBAS/ PDRPI)*(1/(1+RORDISK)**(YR~1983» 23:RP7SGF ==RPBSGF+RPRYGF+RPENGF+RSFDNPXG 26:RP9SGF ==RP9S-RP7SPF 22:RSFDNPXG ==(1-EXPF1)*RSFDNPX 20:RPRYGF --(1-EXPF1)*RPRY 19:RPBSGF --(I-EXPF1)*RPBS 18:RP7S ==RPBS+RPRY+RPEN+RSFDNPX 7:PDCON =CI07A+C107B*WRCNNP 8:ZO.9 --0 9:ZO.8 --0 10:ZO.7 --0 11:ZO.6 --0 12:ZO.S --0 13:ZO.4 ==0 14:ZO.3 --0 15:ZO.2 --0 16:ZO.1 --0 17:ZO.O --0 -25:..RP9S--==RP1S+RPPS+RPTS+RTCSPX+RP9X- State Petroleum Revenues A-8 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A8S.1 state Nonpetroleum Revenues 28:LOG(FAGI)=C21A+C21B*LOG(PI8)+C21C*LOG(EMCNX1+EMP9) 29:LOG(FAGII)=C22A+C22B*LOG(PI) 30:COLA =(l-l/(l+PCOLART))*WSGC 31:AGI =FAGI+COLA-WSGM-PC12N*PC12RN*ANCSA*PCNC1 32:AEX*1000 =C10A+C10B*POPC+C10C*(EMCNX1+EMP9) 33:ATT =C28A+C28B*(EM99-EMGM)+C28C*EMCNX1 34:LOG(ATD/ATT)=C23A+C23B*LOG(AGI/ATT)+C23C*D69+C23D*D72 35:VAEX =IF YR LT 1983 THEN VAEX6 ELSE VAEX(-l)*(l+GRUSCPI) 36:ATI =AGI-A,EX*VAEX-ATD 37 :AT!.TT =AT IIATT 38:LOG(RTISCA1)=C24A-TXBASE+C24B*(1-TXRT)*LOG(ATI.TT) 39:LOG (RTISCA2)=C24A+C24B*LOG(ATI.TT) 40:RTISCA ==IF YR GT 1984 THEN (IF EXTRNS+EXTRNS(-l)EQ 0 THEN EXRLS*(RTISCA1-TXCRPC*RTISCA1-TCRED/1000)ELSE 0)ELSE (IF YR LT 1979 THEN RTISCA1-TXCRPC*RTISCA1-TCRED/1000 ELSE 0) 41:RTISLOS ==(RTISCA2-RTISCA)*ATT 42:RTISC =RTISCA*ATT 43:RTIS =IF YR EQ 1980 THEN 0 ELSE C2SA*RTISC(-1)+C2SB*RTISC 44:RTISCP =C10SA+C10SB*PI8+C10SC*RTISC 4S:LOG(RTPIF/ATT)=C26A+C26B*LOG(FAGII/ATT+TCRED/1000/ATT+ RTISLOS/ATT-EXPF3*EXTRNS/ATT)+C26C*D61.68*LOG(FAGII/ATT+TCREDI 1000/ATT+RTISLOS/ATT-EXPF3*EXTRNS/ATT) 46:DPIRES =C27A+C27B*PI3+C27C*WSCNP 47:RTCS1*100/PDRPI =C43A+C43E*D80+C43D*(EM97(-1)-EM97(-2))+ C43B*EMCNX1(-1)+C43C*EM97 (-1) 48:RTCS ==RTCS1+RTCSPX+RTCSX 49:BL =C39A+C39B*(XX98-XXP9) A-9 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 50:LOG(GR)=C40A+C40B*LOG(XX98-XXP9) 51:RTBS1 ==BL*1000*PBTRATE 52:GTR =GR-BL(-1)*PNTGR*1000 53:LOG(RTBS2*10**3/BL(-1»=C29A+C29B*LOG(GTR(-1)*10**3/BL(-1» 54:RTBS ==IF YR GE 1979 THEN RTBS1+RTBS2*PBLTBL ELSE RTBS1+ RTBS2 55:TPTV =C38A+C38B*POP 56:LOG(AHG)=C37A+C37B*LOG(PR.PI) 57:THG ==AHG*TPTV 58:LOG (RTMF)=C46A+C46B*LOG(THG) 59:LOG(RTVS)=C47A+C47B*LOG(R.DPI8N(-1» 60:LOG (RTAS)=C48A+C48B*LOG(R.DPI(-1» 61:LOG(RTCIS)=C49A+C49B*LOG(R.DPI(-1» 6'2:RTSS =IFYR GT 1980 THEN 0 ELSE G50A+C50B*(EM99-EMGM)-. 63:RTOTS=IFYR I.E 1984 THEN RTOTS~'ELSE RTOTS(...1)*(1+GRUSCPI+ GRDIRPU) 64:RT99 ==RTIS+RTCS+RPPS+RPTS+RP9X+RTBS+RTMF+RTAS+(1-PECIG)* RTCIS+RTVS+RTSS+RTOTS ................65:.LOG(ROFAS}:::..C3QA±G.3_0:e~t.Q.G(r.l])TV(-=1»_ 66:LOG(ROFOS)=C33A+C33B*LOG(PI3(-1» 67:ROFTS ==ROFAS+ROFOS 68:ROFERS =ROFERS(-1)*(1+GRUSCPI+GRDIRPU) 69:LOG(RMIS)=C35A+C35B*LOG(PI3(-1» 70:RSIP =RSIP5+(ROR+GRUSCPI+RORPPF)*(BALPF(-1)+(RE'iSPF+EXPFCONX)1 2:> 71:RSIPGF =IF YR LT 1984 THEN EXPFTOGF*RSIP ELSE EXPFTOGF*(RSIP -EXTRNS) 72:RSID ==(ROR+GRUSCPI-RORPDF)*BALDF(-1) A-10 ,.\ \ J l ) J ,1 -\ ( I f, J " ! \ Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A8s.1 73:RSIG ==IF YR LE 1983 THEN RSIG6 ELSE (ROR+GRUSCPI)*BALGF9(-I) 74:RSIN ==RSIG+RSIPGF 75:RSI99 ==RSIG+RSID+RSIP 76:RSIPNET --(ROR+GRUSCPI-(PDRPI/PDRPI(-I)-I)+RORPFF)*BALPF(-I) 77:RSIDNET --(ROR+GRUSCPI-(PDRPI/PDRPI(-I)-I)-RORPDF)*BALDF(-I) 78:RSIGNET --(ROR+GRUSCPI-(PDRPI/PDRPI(-I)-I»*BALGF9(-I) 79:RSI99NET ==(ROR+GRUSCPI-(PDRPI/PDRPI(-I)-I»*BAL99+RORPPF* BALPF(-I)-RORPDF*BALDF(-I) 80:RSGFBM ==RT99+RP7SGF+ROFTS+ROFERS+RSIN+RMIS-SANCSA+EXDFWITH 81:RSFDN =IF YR LE 1983 THEN RSFDN6 ELSE RSFDNX+RSFDN(-I)*(I+ GRUSCPI+GRDIRPU) 82:RMISRES =IF YR LE 1983 THEN RMISRES6 ELSE RMISRES(-I)*(I+ GRUSCPI+GRDIRPU) 83:RSGFRS ==RSFDN+RMISRES 84:RSGF =RSGFBM+RSGFRS 85:RSGF.AFR ==RSGF+EXINREC 86:R99S =RSGF+EXPFCONl+(RSID-EXDFWITH) 87:LOG(RSFFS)=Cs8A+Cs8B*LOG(POP(-I» 88:RSFSI =RSFSl(-I)*(I+GRUSCPI+GRDIRPU) 89:RSFS ==PECIG*RTCIS+RSFFS+RSFSI 90:RSIAS =RSIAS(-I)*(I+GRUSCPI+GRDIRPU) 91:RSEN ==SANCSA+R99S-RP9S-RSI99-RSFDN 92:RSENGF ==SANCSA+RSGFBM-RP9SGF-RSIN 93:RSIPPFI ==RSIP-RSIPGF 94:RSIPPF ==IF YR LT 1984 THEN RSIPPFI-EXPFDVXl ELSE (IF YR EQ 1984 THEN RSIPPFl-(EXTRNS-sO)ELSE RSIPPFI-EXTRNS) 95:EXPFCONI =RP7SPF+RSIPPFI A-II Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 96:EXPFCON9 ==RSIP+RP7SPF+EXPFCONX 97:EXPFCON =RSIPPF+RP7SPF+EXPFCONX 98:EXDFCON =IF RSGFBM GT EXGFBM THEN EXDF1*(RSGFBM-EXGFBM)+ (RSID-EXDFWITH)ELSE RSID-EXDFWITH 99:EXDFWITH =EXDFPCNT*RSIDNET 100:Z1.9 --0 101:Z1.8 --0 102:Zl.7 --0 103:Z1.6 --0 104:Z1.5 --0 105:Z1.4 --0 106:Z1.3 --0 107:Z1.2 --0 __108:..ZL1 -"--0 109:Zl.O --0 State Expenditures:Aggregates 110:EXLIM =IF YR EQ 1982 THEN EXLIM82 ELSE EXLIM82*(PDRPI/364.23)* (POP/460) --~~---~·_-·--~-T11.:--EXLIMOK·-=·IF-YR-~T-1985··THEN-EXr.IM-EI:;SE-(-rF-RSGFBl·l=E~DSS+--­ BALGFAFA(-l)GT EXLIM THEN EXLIM ELSE RSGFBM-EXDSS) 112:RSGFGAP ==EXLIM-EXLIMOK 113:EXSPLIT ==IF YR LT 1985 THEN 0.67 ELSE (IF RSGFGAP GT 0 AND RSGFGAP(-l)GT 0 THEN EXSPLITX ELSE (IF RSGFGAP GT 0 THEN 0.67+(EXSPLITX-0.67)/2 ELSE 0.67» 114:APGFOPS --EXLIMOK*EXSPLIT 115:APGFCAP --EXLIMOK*(l-EXSPLIT) 116:APGF ==APGFOPS+APGFCAP+EXDSS+EXSPCAP+APPFCONX+SANCSAX A-12 !J II ·1 I J 1 :J I Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 117:EXGFOPS ==APGFOPS+EXGFOPSX 118:EXOPS =IF YR LE 1985 THEN EXOPS6 ELSE EXRL5*(EXGFOPS+ EXINRECB+RSGFRS-RSFDNCAX+RSFS+RSIAS)+EXRL1*(EXOPS (-1)*(1+( EXEL1*(POP(-1)IPOP(-2)-1)+EXEL2*(PDEXOPS(-1)IPDEXOPS(-2)-1)+ EXEL3*(PR.PI3(-1)/PR.PI3(-2)-1)+EXEL4*(PI(-1)/PI(-2)-1)+EXEL5 *(PI3(-1)/PI3(-2)-1)+EXEL6*«POP(-1)-EMCNX1(-1»/(POP(-2)- EMCNX1(-2»-1»)+EXRLOP6*BALGFCP(-1)*(BALGFP(-1)/EXGF(-1»)+ EXRLOP7*(R99S(-1)-EXNOPS(-1)-EXSAVS)+EXRLOP8*(R99S(-1)-EXNOPS (-1)-EXANSAV)+EXRL3*(1+GRRPCEX)*(EXOPS(-1)/POP(-1)/PDEXOPS(-l)* POP*PDEXOPS)+EXRL2*EXOPS(-1)*(1+GREXOPS)+EXRL4*(BASEXOPS+ EXOPSIMP*(PDEXOPS*(POP-BASEPOP-EXRL40P*(EMCNX1-BASEMCNX»» 119:EXANSAV =RP9S+RSIG+RSIP-EXANNU*(1+RORANGRO)**(YR-1983) 120:EXSAVS =EXSAVX+EXPFCON+TXPTXX*RTISLOS 121:EXGFCAP ==IF YR LE 1985 THEN EXGFCAP6 ELSE 0.3*APGFCAP+0.7* APGFCAP(-l) 122:EXCAP =IF YR LE 1985 THEN EXGFCAP+EXCPS ELSE EXRL5*(EXGFCAP+ EXCPS)+EXRL3*«1+GRSSCP)*PR.BALCP(-1)*POP/1000-R.BALCAP(-1)* (1/(1+RORCPDEP»)/(100/PDCON)+EXRL2*(EXCAP(-1)*(1+GREXCAP»+ EXRL4*(BASEXCAP+EXCAPIMP*(PDCON*(POP-BASEPOP-EXRL40P*(EM CNX1- BASEMCNX»»+EXRL1*(EXCAP(-1)*(1+EXEL1*(POP(-1)/POP(-2)-1)+ EXEL2*(PDCON(-1)/PDCON(-2)-1)+EXEL3*(PR.PI3(-1)/PR.PI3(-2)-1) +EXEL4*(PI(-1)/PI(-2)-1)+EXEL5*(PI3(-1)/PI3(-2)-1)+EXEL6*«POP (-1)-EMCNX1(-1»/(POP(-2)-EMCNX1(-2»-1») 123:EXSUBS =IF YR LT 2011 THEN EXSUBSX ELSE (IF EXRL5 EQ 1 THEN (IF RSGFBM(-1)+RSGFBM(-2)-1 LT EXGFBM(-1)+EXGFBM(-2)OR EXSUBS(-l)EQ 0 THEN 0 ELSE EXLIMOK*(O.5*(1-EXSPLIT»)ELSE EXSUBS(-l)*(l+GRUSCPI» 124:EXTRNS =IF YR LT 1984 THEN EXTRNSX+EXPFDVX2 ELSE EXPFDVX2+ EXTRNSX+EXPFDIST*(RSIP(-1)+RSIP(-2)+RSIP(-3)+RSIP(-4)+RSIP)/5 125:EXINREC =C17A+C17B*(EXOPS-RLT99)+C17C*D82 126:EXINRECB =C108A+C108B*EXINREC State Expenditures:Operating Expenditures 127:LOG(EXJUS4)=C20A+C20B*LOG(EXOPS) 128:LOG(EXPPS4)=C91A+C91B*LOG(EXOPS) 129:=C93A+C93B*LOG(EXOPS) A-13 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 130:LOG(EXHES4)=C94A+C94B*LOG(EXOPS) 131:LOG(EXSSS4)=C96A+C96B*LOG(EXOPS) 132:LOG(EXEDS4)=C19A+C19B*LOG(EXOPS) 133:LOG(EXCDS4)=C97A+C97B*LOG(EXOPS) 134:LOG(EXTRS4)=C98A+C98B*LOG(EXOPS) 135:LOG(EXGGS4)=C99A+C99B*LOG(EXOPS) 136:RATI01 ==EXOPS/(EXEDS4+EXSSS4+EXHES4+EXNRS4+EXPPS4+EXJUS4+ EXCDS4+RLTX+EXTRS4+EXGGS4) 137:EXUA =IF YR LE 1983 THEN EXUA6 ELSE EXUA(-l)*(EXOPS/EXOPS(-l» 138:EXEDS =RATI01*EXEDS4 139:EXSSS =RATI01*EXSSS4 140:EXHES =RATI01*EXHES4 141:EXNRS"=RATI01*EXNRS4 .142 :_EXPPS .=_~T~Ol~EX!,!,S~__...__.__~.__ 143:EXJUS =RATI01*EXJUS4 144:EXTRS =RATI01*EXTRS4 145:EXGGS =RATI01*EXGGS4 146:EXCDS =RATI01*(EXCDS4+RLTX) 148:EXEDSNT ==EXEDS-RLTE99 149:RLTT9 =RLTT94*RATI01 150:.RLTRS =RLTRS4*RATI01 151:EXCDSNT =EXCDS-RLTT9-RLTRS-RLTX 152:EXPRCDS =C7A+C7B*EXCDSNT 153:EXPREDSl =C1A+C1B*EXEDSNT+C1C*D61.75*EXEDSNT 154:EXPRSSS =C2A+C2B*EXSSS A-14 j \ ! J /,I I ( Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 155:EXPRUA =C32A+C32B*EXUA+C32C*D61.70*EXUA+C32D*D61.70 156:EXPRHES =C3A+C3B*EXHES 157:EXPRNRS =C4A+C4B*EXNRS 158:EXPRPPS =C5A+C5B*EXPPS 159:EXPRGGS =C8A+C8B*EXGGS 160:EXPRJUS =C6A+C6B*EXJUS 161:EXPRTRS =C9A+C9B*EXTRS+C9C*D61.64 162:EXPR99 =EXPREDS1+EXPRSSS+EXPRHES+EXPRNRS+EXPRPPS+EXPRJUS+ (+EXPRCDS)+EXPRGGS+EXPRTRS+EXPRUA 163:WSGSFY =PCWS1*EXPR99 164:LOG(WSGS)=C55A+C55B*LOG(WSGSFY)+C55C*D75 state Expenditures:Capital Expenditures 165:RORCRF ==(GRUSCPI+RORBOND)*(1+GRUSCPI+RORBOND)**15/«1+ GRUSCPI+RORBOND)**15-1) 166:EXCPSGOB ==IF YR LE 1985 THEN EXCPSGB6 ELSE (IF EXDSS(-l)1 RSGFBM(-l)GT 0.05 THEN 0 ELSE (0.05*RSGFBM(-1)-EXDSS(-1))1 RORCRF) 167:EXCPSFED =IF YR LE 1983 THEN EXCPSFD6 ELSE EXCPSFED(-l)*(l+ GRUSCPI) 168:EXCPS =EXCPSGOB+EXCPSFED 169:EXGFCOT =IF YR LE 1983 THEN EXGFCOT6 ELSE EXSUBS+RLTMCAP 170:EXGFCAP1 ==EXGFCAP-EXGFCOT 171:EXCAPOT ==EXGFCOT 172:EXGFCHY =LGF1*(EXGFCAP-EXSUBS) 173:EXGFCNH =(1-LGF1)*(EXGFCAP-(1-EXSUB1)*EXSUBS) 174:EXCPSHY =LFED1*EXCPSFED+LBOND1*EXCPSGOB 175:EXCPSNH =(1 LFED1)*EXCPSFED+(1 LBOND1)*EXCPSGOB A-IS A-16 EXNOPS =EX99S-EXOPS BALCAB ==R99S-EXGF-EXTRNS Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A8S.1 EXGFCNH+EXCPSNH EXGF =EXGFOPS+EXDSS+EXGFCAP+EXSPCAP+EXPFCONX+RSGFRS+EXTRNSX EX99S =EXBUD+EXTRNS+EXCAP+EXSPCAP EXHYCAP ==EXGFCHY+EXCPSHY EXGF.AFR.==EXGF+EXINREC EXGFBM =EXGF-RSGFRS EXDSS =IF YR LT 1984 THEN EXDSSX ELSE EXDSSX+RORCRF*DEBTP83(-1) EXBUD ==EXOPS+EXDSS+PARNONGF*EXUA EXGFOT.A ==EXGFOPS+EXINREC+RSGFRS-RSFDNCAX EXCPSM =IF YR LT 1984 THEN 0 ELSE EXCPSGOB BALGF9 =IF YR LE 1981 THEN BALGF6 ELSE BALGF9(-1)+RSGF-EXGF XXVACAP ==(XXVHY+XXVNHY)/(PDCON/100) XXVHY =C41A+C41B*(EXHYCAP+EXHYCAP(-1» BALDF =IF YR LE 1983 THEN BALDF6 ELSE BALDF(-l)+EXDFCON BALCABGF ==RSGF-EXGF XXVNHY =C42A+C42B*(EXNHYCP(-1)+EXSPCAP(-1)+RLTMCAP(-1)- EXCAPFR(-2)+EXNHYCP+EXSPCAP+RLTMCAP-EXCAPFR(-1» DEBTP83 =IF YR LT 1984 THEN 0 ELSE DEBTP83(-1)+EXCPSGOB- EXCPSM(-lS) EXNHYCP .'EXCAPFR =EXCAPFR(-l)*(EXCAP/EXCAP(-l» BALGFAFA =BALGF9(-1)+RSGF-EXGF-BALGFUNA GODT =IF YR LT 1984 THEN GODTX ELSE GODTX+EXCPSM(-14)*0.067+ EXCPSM(-13)*0.13+EXCPSM(-12)*0.2+EXCPSM(-11)*0.27+EXCP SM(-10)* O.33+EXCPSM(-9)*0.4+EXCPSM(-8)*0.47+EXCPSM(-7)*0.S3+EXCPSM(-6)* O.6+EXCPSM(-5)*0.67+EXCPSM(-4)*0.73+EXCPSM(-3)*0.8+EXC PSM(~2)* O.87+EXCPSM(-1)*0.93+EXCPSGOB 193: 196: 187: 184: 183: 188: 182: 190: 181: 197: 186: 179: 192: 178: 189: 177: 194: 176: 19S: 180: 185: 191: 1 .\ Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 198:BALPF =IF YR LE 1981 THEN BALPF6 ELSE BALPF(-I)+EXPFCON 199:BAL99 =BALGF9+BALPF+BALDF 200:BAL99AFA =BALGFAFA+BALPF 201:BALGFP =IF BALGF9 LT 0 THEN 0 ELSE BALGF9 202:BALGFCP =IF BALGF9-BALGF9(-I)GT 0 THEN BALGF9-BAtGF9(-I) ELSE 0 203:R.BALCAP =R.BALCAP(-I)*(I/(I+RORCPDEP»+(EXGFCHY+EXGFCNH+ EXCPS)*100/PDCON 204:PR.BALCP =R.BALCAP*1000/POP 205:EXCAPREP ==IF YR LT 1984 THEN 0 ELSE RORCPDEP*BALCAP84(-I)+ EXCAPOLD*(PDRPI/PDRPIBAS) 206:EXCAPNEW ==IF YR LT 1984 THEN 0 ELSE EXGFCHY+EXGFCNH+EXCPS- EXCAPREP 207:BALCAP84 =IF YR LT 1984 THEN 0 ELSE BALCAP84(-I)*PDRPII PDRPI(-I)+EXCAPNEW 208:EXOM84 ==BALCAP84(-I)*EXOMCOST 209:EXRP84 ==RORCPDEP*BALCAP84(-I) 210:Z2.9 --0 211:Z2.8 --0 212:Z2.7 --0 213:Z2.6 --0 214:Z2.5 --0 215:Z2.4 --0 216:Z2.3 --0 217 :Z2.2 --0 218:Z2.1 --0 219:Z2.0 --0 A-17 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 Local Revenues 220:LOG(LPTB1)=C57A+C57B*LOG(PI(-1)*1000/POP(-1»+C57C*LOG(POP(-1» 221:LPTB1FV ==LPTB1*1/PARLVFV 222:PTBP9 ==RPPS*(l/PTRTS)/(1-P9PTPER*LPTRAT) 223:LPTBP9 ==P9PTPER*PTBP9 224:LPTB =LPTB1+LPTBP9*LPTRAT 225:LPTBFV ==LPTB1FV+LPTBP9 226:PPVAL ==LPTB1FV+PTBP9 227:RLPT1 =C18A+C18D*D61.73+C18B*LPTB1(-1)+C18C*PTBP9(-1) 228:RLPT ==RLPT1+RLPTX 229:LOG(RLOT*1000/POP(-1»=C31A+C31B*LOG(PI(-1)*1000/POP(-1» 230:RLTCS4 =IF YR GT 1981 THEN 0 ELSEPESLTC*RTCS1 231:RLTVS4 =C63A+C63B*RTVS 232:RLTOT4 ==PESLT*RTOTS 233:RLTMA4 =IF YR LE 1983 THEN RLTMA6 ELSE RLTMA(-l)/PDRPI(-l)1 POP (-1)*POP*PDRPI 234:RLTT94 =RLTVS4+RLTOT4+RLTCS4+RLTMA4 235:RLTRS4 =IF YR LE 1983 THEN RLTRS6 ELSE RLTRS(-l)*(l+GRUSCPI+ GRDIRPU)",--,--,-- 236:RLTMS =RLTMCAP 237:RLTEC4 ==PECIG*RTCIS 238:ADMDIS ==PAD1*POPSKUL(-1) 239:ADMREA ==PAD2*POPSKUL(-1) 240:ADMSD =ADMDIS+ADMREA 241:BIU =IF YR LE 1983 THEN BIU6 ELSE BIU(-1)*(1+GRUSCPI) 242:RLTEF4 =C36A+C36F*D81.00+D71.00*C36B+BIU*C36C+C36D*ADMSD A-18 j \ I [ J 1 ~)"'~-\ Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 243:RLTET4 =(POP/POP(-l)+PDRPI/PDRPI(-l)-l)*RLTET(-l) 244:RLTE04 =RLTEO(-l)*(l+GRUSCPI+GRDIRPU) 245:RLTEA4 ==RLTEC4+RLTEF4+RLTET4+RLTE04 246:RLTEB4 =IF YR LE 1983 THEN RLTEB6 ELSE RLTEB(-l)*(l+GRUSCPI+ GRDIRPU) 247:RLTE994 =RLTEA4+RLTEB4 248:RLTCS =RLTCS4*RATI01 249:RLTVS ==RLTVS4*RATI01 250:RLTOT ==RLTOT4*RATI01 251:RLTMA =RLTMA4*RATI01 252:RLTEC ==RLTEC4*RATI01 253:RLTEF ==RLTEF4*RATI01 254:RLTET =RLTET4*RATI01 255:RLTEO =RLTE04*RATI01 256:RLTEA ==RLTEA4*RATI01 257:RLTEB =RLTEB4*RATI01 258:RLT99 =RLTT9+RLTRS+RLTE99+RLTMS+RLTX 259:Z3.1 --0 260:Z3.2 --0 261:Z3.3 --0 262:Z3.4 --0 263:Z3.5 --0 264:Z3.6 --0 265:Z3.7 --0 266:Z3.8 --0 A-19 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 267:Z3.9 ==0 268:Z3.0 ==0 Local Expenditures 269:ELED1 =C11A+C11B*PI3(-1) 270:ELED =RLTE99+ELED1 271:ELBD =C14A+C14C*D61.77*GOBONDL(-1)+C14B*GOBONDL(-1) 272:EL99 =ELED+ELNED1+ELBD+RLTX+RLTFPX 273:ELNED1*100/PDRPI =C16A+C16B*WEALTH+C16C*(RLTRS+RLTT9+RLTMS)1 PDRPI 274:RLTF =RLTF(-1)*(1+GRUSCPI+GRDIRPU) 275:RL991 ==RLPT+RLOT+RLT99+RLTF+RLTFPX 276:RLMC =EL99-RL991-(GOBONDL-GOBONDL(-1» 277:RL99 ==RL991+RLMC 278:ELEDCP =C15A+C15B*ELED 279:ELPERS =C12A+C12B*(EL99-ELEDCP-RLTMS-ELBD) 280:WSGL =(IF YR EQ 1983 THEN 1.23 ELSE (IF YR EQ 1984 THEN 1.23 ELSE (IF YR EQ 1985 THEN 1.27 ELSE PCWS2)»*ELPERS 281:GOBONDL =GOBONDL(-1)*(1+GRUSCPI+GRDIRPU) 283:BALOCAL ==RL99-(EL99-ELBD) 284 :BALLANDS ==BALOCAL+BALCAB 285:Z4.9 ==0 286:Z4.8 --0 287:Z4.7 ==0 288:Z4.6 ==0 289:Z4.5 ==0 A-20 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A8S.1 290:Z4.4 --0 291:Z4.3 --0 I 292:Z4.2 --0 293:Z4.1 --0 294:Z4.0 --0 ECONOMIC MODULE Personal Income 295:PIDIR =CS1A+CS1B*(DPI+DPI(-1)+DPI(-2)+DPI(-3)+DPl(-4» 296:PlTRAN1 =IF YR LE 1982 THEN PITRAN6 ELSE ITRAN1(-1)/POPGER(-1)* (1+GRUSCPl)*POPGER 297:PITRAN/PDRPl =IF YR GE 1984 THEN PlTRAN1/PDRPl+EXTRNS/PDRPl ELSE (IF YR EQ 1983 OR YR EQ 1982 THEN PlTRAN1/PDRPl+EXTRNSPll PDRPI ELSE C34A+C34B*POP+C34C*D61.72+EXTRNS/PDRPl) 298:PIOLl =C44A+C44D*D61.75+C44B*(WS98-WSCNP)+C44C*WSCNP(-1) 299:PlSSC =C106A+C106B*(WS98-WSCNP) 300:PlPR01*100/PDRPl =C45A+C45B*EMPR01+C45C*D61.66+C45D*D79 301:PlPROF =EMPROFlS*(4.523*(PDRPI/340» 302:PIPRO ==PIPR01+PlPROF 303:PI8 =WS98+PIOLI+PIPRO-PISSC+PIDIR+PITRAN 304:NCCI =PC12N*(1-PCNC1)*ANCSA+(1-PCNC2)*NCRP+(1-PCNC3)*RORNC* NCCAP(-1) 305:NCCAP =PCNCSV*NCCI+NCCAP(-1)+PCNCSV1*(1-PCNC4)*NCBP 306:NCEXP ==(1-PCNCSV)*NCCI+(1-PCNCSV1)*(1-PCNC4)*NCBP 307:NCWS ==PCNCWS*NCEXP 308:NCPI =PC12N*PC12RN*PCNC1*ANCSA+PC12RN*PCNC2*NCRP+PC12RN* PCNC3*RORNC*NCCAP (-1)+PC12RN*PCNC4*NCBP A-21 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 19S4,Model ASS.1 309:PIRADJ*100/PDRPI =C103A+C103B*EMCNX1+C103C*EM97 310:PI =PIS-PIRADJ 311:PI3 =PI-PI/WS9S*WRCNP*EMCNX1/1000 312:R.PI ==PI*100./PDRPI 313:P.PI ==PI*1000./POP 314:PR.PI3 =PI3*100/PDRPI*1000/(POP-EMCNX1) 315:PR.PI =R.PI*1000./POP 316:WEALTH =(PR.PI+PR.PI(-1)+PR.PI(-2)+PR.PI(-3»/4 317:DPI =PI-RTPIF-RTISCP-DPIRES+RTISXX 31S:DPIS =DPI+PIRADJ 319:R.DPI =100.*DPI/PDRPI 320:PR.DPI ==R.DPI*1000/POP 321:R.DPISN =(DPIS+EXSUB2*EXSUBS-EXPF2*EXTRNS)*100/PDRPI-R.DPISX 322:R.DPISX =0 323:PR.DPISN --R.DPISN*1000/POP 324:ZS'~9 ==0 32S:ZS.S ==0 ,...•-_._._._~ -3i6:Z5. 327:Z5.6 --0 32S:ZS.S ==0 329:ZS.4 --0 330:ZS.3 ==0 331:ZS.2 ==0 332:Z5.1 ==0 333:ZS.O ==0 A-22 J -1 .1 ! J .-/ 1 I i i I \ i i I J i I Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 Sectoral Activity 334:EMCNRT =IF EMCNXl/4 LT EMCNX1(-1)THEN 0 ELSE EMCNX1I (EM98-EMCNX1) 335:XXCN8 =C54A+C54B*R.DPI8N+C54D*D65+C54E*D73+C54F*R.DPI8X(-1)+ C54G*R.DPI8X 336:XXCN1 =XXCN8+XXVACAP 337:LOG (EMCN1)=C56A+C56C*D61.67+C56B*LOG(XXCN1) 338:EMCNX =EMCNX1+EMCNX2 339:EMCN =EMCN1+EMCNX 340:XXCN =EMCN/EMCN1*XXCN1 341:XXCNX ==XXCN-XXVACAP-XXCN8 342:LOG(WRCNNP/PDRPI)=C59A+C59F*D.80DEC6+C59B*LOG(WEUS/PDUSCPI) +C59C*LOG(1+EMCNRT)+C59D*LOG(1+EMCNRT(-1»+C59E*LOG(1+EMCNRT(-2» 343:WRCNP =WRCNNP*PIPADJ 344:WSCN =(EMCN1+EMCNX2)*WRCNNP/1000+EMCNX1*WRCNP/1000 345:WRCN =WSCN/EMCN*lOOO 346:WSCNP =EMCNX1*WRCNP/1000 347:LOG(XXP9)=C52A+C52B*LOG(EMP9) 348:LOG (WRP9/PDRPI)=C53A+C53F*D.80DEC6+C53D*D61.76+C53B*LOG(WEUSI PDUSCPI)+C53C*LOG(1+EMCNRT) 349:WSP9 ==EMP9*WRP9/1000 350:XXMO =C60A+C60B*R.DPI8N+C60C*D61.77 351:LOG (EMMO)=C109A+C109B*LOG(XXMO) 352:LOG(XXMX2)=C61A+C61B*LOG(EMMX2) 353:XXM9 ==XXMX1+XXMX2+XXMO 354:EMM9 =EMMO+EMMXl+EMMX2 --------------~3~5~5~:--~LO~G4WRM91/PDRPI)-C62A+C62F*D.80DEC6+C62B*LOG(WEUS/PDUSCPI)+ C62C*LOG(1+EMCNRT)+C62D*LOG(1+EMCNRT(-1» A-23 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 356:WRMX1 ==WRM91*PADJ 357:WSM9 ==(EMMO+EMMX2)*WRM91/1000+EMMX1*WRMX1/1000 358:WSMX1 ==EMMX1*WRMX1/1000 359:WRM9 ==WSM9/EMM9*1000 360:XXTNT =C64A+C64B*R.DPI8X+C64D*R.DPI8X*R.DPI8X(-1)+C64C* R.DPI8N+C64E*D71.73 361:LOG(EMTNT)=C65A+C65B*LOG(XXTNT) 362:EMTTOUR =PTOURT*EMTOUR 363:EMT91 =EMTNT+EMTTOUR 364:EMT9 =EMT91+EMT9X 365:XXT9 =XXTNT*(EMT9/EMTNT) 366:LOG(WRT9/PDRPI)=C66A+C66V*D.80DEC6+C66D*D61.76+C66B*LOG(WEUSI PDUSCPI)+C66C*LOG(1+EMCNRT)+C66E*LOG(1+EMCNRT(-1» 367:WST9 ==EMT9*WRT9/1000. 368:XXCM =C68A+C68B*R.DPI8N(-1)+C68C*D61.74+C68D*WEALTH(-1)*POP(-1) 369:LOG(EMCM)=C69A+C69B*LOG(XXCM) 370:LOG(WRCM/PDRPI)=C70A+C70E*D61.70+C70F*D.80DEC6+C70B*LOG(WEUSI PDUSCPI)+C70C*LOG(1+EMCNRT(":'2»+C70D*LOG(l+EMCNRT(-1» 371:WSCM ==EMCM*WRCM/1000. 373:LOG(EMPU)=C73A+C73B*LOG(XXPU) 374:LOG(WRPU/PDRPI)=C74A+C74F*D.80DEC6+C74B*LOG(WEUS/PDUSCPI)+ C74C*LOG(1+EMCNRT(-2»+C74D*LOG(1+EMCNRT(-1» 375:WSPU ==EMPU*WRPU/1000. 376:XXDW =C71A+C71B*R.DPI8N+C71C*R.DPI8X+C71D*R.DPI8X(-1)* R.DPI8X+C71E*WEALTH(-1)*POP(-1) 377:XXDRNT =C76A+C76B*R.DPI8N+C76C*R.DPI8X+C76D*R.DPI8N(-1)+C76E *R.DPI8X(-1) A-24 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 378:LOG (EMDW)=C77A+C77B*LOG(XXDW) 379:LOG (EMDRNT)=C75A+C75B*LOG(XXDRNT) 380:EMDR =EMDRNT+EMDTOUR 381:LOG(WRDW/PDRPI)=C78A+C78F*D.80DEC6+C78B*LOG(WEUS/PDUSCPI)+ C78C*LOG(I+EMCNRT)+C78D*LOG(I+EMCNRT(-I»+C78E*LOG(I+EMCNRT(-2» 382:LOG(WRDR/PDRPI)=C79A+C79F*D.80DEC6+C79B*LOG(WEUS/PDUSCPI)+ (+C79D)*LOG(I+EMCNRT(-I»+C79E*LOG(I+EMCNRT(-2» 383:EMDTOUR =PTOURD*EMTOUR 384:EMD9 =EMDRNT+EMDW+EMDTOUR 385:WSD9 ==(EMDRNT+EMDTOUR)*WRDR/I000+EMDW*WRDW/I000 386:WRD9 =WSD9/EMD9*1000 387:XXD9 =(XXDW+XXDRNT)/(EMDW+EMDRNT)*EMD9 388:XXDR =XXD9-XXDW 389:XXFI.=C80A+C80C*D71.73+C80B*WEALTH(-I)*POP(-I) 390:LOG(EMFI)=C81A+C81B*LOG(XXFI) 391:LOG(WRFI/PDRPI)=C82A+C82F*D.80DEC6+C82B*LOG(WEUS/PDUSCPI)+ C82D*LOG(I+EMCNRT)+C82C*LOG(I+EMCNRT(-I» 392:WSFI ==EMFI*WRFI/I000. 393:XXS8NT =C84A+C84B*R.DPI8N+C84C*R.DPI8X(-I)+C84D*WEALTH(-I)* POP(-I) 394:XXSB =C83A+(+C83C)*R.DPI8X+C83D*R.DPI8X(-I)+C83E*WEALTH(-I)* POP(-I) 395:LOG(EMS8NT)=C85A+C85B*LOG(XXS8NT) 396:LOG(EMSB)=C87A+C87B*LOG(XXSB) 397:LOG (WRSNB/PDRPI)=C86A+C86F*D.80DEC6+C86B*LOG(WEUS/PDUSCPI)+ C86C*LOG(I+EMCNRT)+C86D*LOG(I+EMCNRT(-I»+C86E*LOG(I+EMCNRT(-2» 398:LOG (WRSB/PDRPI)=C88A+C88F*D.80DEC6+C88E*D61.70+C88B* LOG (WEUS/PDUSCPI)+C88C*LOG(I+EMCNRT)+C88D*LOG(I+EMCNRT (-1»+ C88C*LOC(1+EMCNRT(2)) A-25 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 399:EMS TOUR =PTOURS*EMTOUR 400:EMS91 =EMSB+EMS8NT+EMSTOUR 401:WSS91 ==(EMS8NT+EMSTOUR)*WRSNB/1000+EMSB*WRSB/1000 402:WSS9 ==WSS91+NCWS 403:EMS9 =EMS91+NCWS/(WRS9*1000) 404:WRS9 =WSS91/EMS91*1000 405:XXS9 =(XXS8NT+XXSB)/(EMS8NT+EMSB)*EMS9 406:EMGF =EMGM+EMGC 407:LOG(XXGF)=C101A+C101B*LOG(EMGF) 408:,LOG(WRGC)=C89A+C89B*LOG(WEUS) 409:WRGM =WRGC*PCIVPY 410:WSGC =WRGC*EMGC/1000 411:WSGM =WRGM*EMGM/1000 412:WSGF ==WSGC+WSGM 413:.WRGF =WSGF/EMGF*1000 414:LOG(WRGS/PDRPI)=IF C92A+C92F*D.80DEC6+C92B*LOG(WEUS/PDUSCPI)+ C92C*D61.73+C92D*D74.75 LT LOG(WRGS(-l)/PDRPI(-l»THEN LOG (WRGS(-l)/PDRPI(-l»ELSE C92A+C92F*D.80DEC6+C92B*LOG(WEUSI PDUSCPI)+C92C*D61.73+C92D*D74.75 416:LOG (WRGL/PDRPI)=IF C102A+C102F*D.80DEC6+C102D*D61.69+C102C* LOG(l+EMc::NRT)+C102B*LOG(WEUS/PDUSCPI)LT LOG(WRGL(-l)IPDRPI(-l» THEN LOG(WRGL(-l)/PDRPI(-l»ELSE C102A+C102F*D.80DEC6+C102D* D61.69+C102C*LOG(1+EMCNRT)+C102B*LOG(WEUS/PDUSCPI) 417:EMGL =WSGL/WRGL*1000 418:EMGA =EMGS+EMGL 419:WSGA =WSGS+WSGL 420:WRGA =WSGA/EMGA*1000 A-26 ! ] i I \ ! I .\ -"I 1 I j ( ( I 1 j ! I I I 1.1 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 421:LOG (XXGA)=C104A+C104B*LOG(EMGA) 422:EMA9 =EMAFISH+EMAGRI+EMAUN 423:XXA9 =C90A+C90B*(EMA9+EMPROFIS) 424:WRA9 =WRGC 425:WSA9 ==EMA9*WRA9/1000. 426:XX98 =XXP9+XXCN+XXM9+XXT9+XXCM+XXPU+XXD9+XXFI+XXS9+XXGF+ XXGA+XXA9 427:EM98 =EMP9+EMCN+EMM9+EMT9+EMCM+EMPU+EMD9+EMFI+EMS9+EMGF+ EMGA+EMA9 428:EM97 =EM98-EMGM 429:WS98 =(WRP9*EMP9+WRCN*EMCN+WRM9*EMM9+WRT9*EMT9+WRCM*EMCM+ WRPU*EMPU+WRD9*EMD9+WRFI*EMFI+WRS9*EMS9+WRGF*EMGF+WRGA*EMGA+ WRA9*EMA9)11000. 430:WS97 =WS98-WSGM 431:WR98 =WS98*1000/EM98 432:WR97 ==WS97*1000/EM97 433:LOG(EMPROl)=CIOOA+CIOOC*D61.66+CIOOB*LOG(EM98) 434:EMPROFIS =PFISH1*EMFISH 435:EMAFISH =(1-PFISH1)*EMFISH 436:EMPRO =EMPROl+EMPRQFIS 437:EM99 ==EM98+EMPRO 438:EM96 =EM99-EMGM 439:EM9BASE ==EMCNX+EMM9-EMMO+EMP9+EMTOUR+EMGF+EMA9+EMPROFIS+ EMT9X 440:EM9GOV ==EMGS+EMGL 441:EM9INFR =EMTCU+EMCNl+EMSB-EMT9X-EMTTOUR 442:EM9SUPRT ==EMD9+EMFI+EMS9-EMDTOUR-EMSTOUR-EMSB+EMMO+EMPROI 443:EMX =EMCNX+EMP9 A-27 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.l 444:EMOCSX ==EMP9+EMT9X+EMCNX1+EMCNX2+EMMXl 445:EMCU ==EMCM+EMPU 446:WRCU ==(WSCM+WSPU)/EMCU*1000 447:EMNC ==EMS9-EMS9l 448:EMTCU =EMT9+EMCM+EMPU 449:EMSUP =EMD9+EMFI+EMS9 450:EMSP =EMTCU+EMSUP 451:EMG9 ==EMGF+EMGA 452:G.EMSP =(EMSP-EMSP(-1»/EMSP(-1) 453:·EMNR==EM99-EMSP-EMG9-EMCN-EMP9 454:EMNS ==EM99-EMSP-EMG9 455:LOG (EMTOUR)=PTOURB+PTOURE*LOG(TOURIST) 456:Z6.9 ==0 457:Z6.8 ==0 458:Z6.7 ==0 459:Z6.6 --0 460:Z6.5 --0 461:Z6.4 --0 .~-~_.,.._-----_.~-_._._._~--..~ 462:Z6.3 --0 463:Z6.2 --0 464:Z6.1 ==0 465:Z6.0 ==0 A-28 ;j ] '\ J .\ I ~J I -, I I I 1 ! j I ] I DEMOGRAPHIC MODULE Civilian Non-Native Population Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A8S.1 466:CM2 ==G2*SM2*CNNPM2(-1)+(1-GI)*CNNPMI(-1)*SM1 467:CF2 ==G2*SF2*CNNPF2(-I)+(1-G1)*CNNPFI(-1)*SFI 468:CM3 ==G3*SM3*CNNPM3(-1)+(1-G2)*CNNPM2(-1)*SM2 469:CF3 ==G3*SF3*CNNPF3(-1)+(1-G2)*CNNPF2(-1)*SF2 470:CM4 ==G4*SM4*CNNPM4(-1)+(1-G3)*CNNPM3(-1)*SM3 471:CF4 ==G4*SF4*CNNPF4(-1)+(1-G3)*CNNPF3(-I)*SF3 472:CMS ==GS*SMS*CNNPMS(-1)+(1-G4)*CNNPM4(-1)*SM4 473:CFS ==GS*SFS*CNNPFS(-1)+(1-G4)*CNNPF4(-1)*SF4 474:CM6 ==G6*SM6*CNNPM6(-1)+(1-GS)*CNNPMS(-1)*SMS r 1 47S:CF6 ==G6*SF6*CNNPF6(-1)+(1-GS)*CNNPFS(-1)*SFS 476:CM7 ==G7*SM7*CNNPM7(-1)+(1-G6)*CNNPM6(-1)*SM6 1.1 477:CF7 ==G7*SF7*CNNPF7(-1)+(1-G6)*CNNPF6(-1)*SF6 478:CM8 ==G8*SM8*CNNPM8(-1)+(1-G7)*CNNPM7(-1)*SM7 479:CF8 ==G8*SF8*CNNPF8(-1)+(1-G7)*CNNPF7(-1)*SF7 480:CM9 ==G9*SM9*CNNPM9(-1)+(1-G8)*CNNPM8(-1)*SM8 481:CF9 ==G9*SF9*CNNPF9(-1)+(1-G8)*CNNPF8(-1)*SF8 482:CM10 ==GIO*SM10*CNNPM10(-1)+(1-G9)*CNNPM9(-1)*SM9 483:CF10 ==GIO*SF10*CNNPFIO(-1)+(1-G9)*CNNPF9(-1)*SF9 484:CMII ==GII*SMII*CNNPMII(-I)+(1-GIO)*CNNPM10(-1)*SM10 48S:CFll ==G1I*SFII*CNNPF1I(-1)+(1-G10)*CNNPF10(~1)*SF10 486:CMl2 ==G12*SMI2*CNNPMI2(-1)+(1-G1I)*CNNPMII(-1)*SMII 487:CFl2 ==G12*SF12*CNNPFI2(-1)+(1-GII)*CNNPFII(-1)*SFII 488:CMl3 ==G13*SMI3*CNNPMI3(-1)+(I-G12)*CNNPM12(-1)*SMI2 A-29 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A8S.1 489:CF13 ==G13*SF13*CNNPFI3(-1)+(1-G12)*CNNPF12(-1)*SF12 490:CMI4 ==G14*SM14*CNNPMI4(-1)+(1-G13)*CNNPM13(-1)*SMI3 491:CFI4 ==G14*SFI4*CNNPFI4(-I)+(1-GI3)*CNNPF13(-1)*SFI3 492:CMIS ==G1S*SMIS*CNNPMIS(-1)+(1-GI4)*CNNPM14(-1)*SMI4 493:CF1S ==GIS*SFIS*CNNPFIS(-1)+(1-GI4)*CNNPFI4(-1)*SFI4 494:BTHTOT ==CF4*FERT4+CFS*FERTS+CF6*FERT6+CF7*FERT7+CF8*FERT8+ CF9*FERT9+CFIO*FERTIO+CF1I*FERTII-BADD 495:CMI --SEXDIV*BTHTOT*SURINFM 496:CFI --(l-SEXDIV)*BTHTOT*SURINFF 497:DTHINF ==BTHTOT-CMI-CFI 498:DTHTOT ==DTHINF+CMIS(-I)*(I-SMIS)+CFIS(-1)*(I-SFIS)+CMI4(-I)* (1-SMI4)+CFI4(-1)*(1-SFI4)+CMI3(-1)*(I-SM13)+CF13(-1)*(1-SFI3)+ CM12(-1)*(1-SM12)+CFI2(-1)*(I-SFI2)+CM1I(-1)*(1-SMII)+CFII(-l)* (1-SFII)+CMIO(-1)*(I-SMIO)+CFIO(-1)*(1-SFIO)+CM9(-1)*(1-SM9)+ CF9(-1)*(1-SF9)+CM8(-1)*(I-SM8)+CF8(-1)*(1-SF8)+CM7(-1)*(I-SM7)+ CF7(-1)*(I-SF7)+CM6(-1)*(1-SM6)+CF6(-1)*(1-SF6)+CMS(-I)*(l-SMS)+ CF~J=11*(l.=SF~>-±G~~l)~(!=-SM~H:Q[4(=1.)*(1=~F4)±CM3(=1)*(I-SM3)+ CF3(-1)*(I-SF3)+CM2(-1)*(1-SM2)+CF2(-1)*(1-SF2)+CMI(-1)*(l-SMI)+ CF1(-1)*(1-SFI) 499:NATINC ==BTHTOT-DTHTOT 500:CNNPMIO =CMIO*(l+OEMMIO)+MIGIN*MMIO 501:CNNPFIO =CFIO*(l+OEMFIO)+MIGIN*MFIO ~---~-------~~---~~---S02:~-CNNPMll -=CMll*ClTOEMMllY+MIGIN*MMll 503:CNNPFll =CFll*(l+OEMFll)+MIGIN*MFll 504:CNNPM12 =CM12*(1+OEMM12)+MIGIN*MM12 505:CNNPF12 =CF12*(l+OEMF12)+MIGIN*MF12-- 506:CNNPM13 =CM13*(1+OEMM13)+MIGIN*MM13 507:CNNPF13 =CF13*(1+OEMF13)+MIGIN*MFI3 508:CNNPM14 =CM14*(1+OEMM14)+MIGIN*MM14 509:CNNPF14 =CF14*(1+OEMFI4)+MIGIN*MF14 A-30 :J } ! ] .\ I I I ::! I j j ( ! [ l 1 ;( r 510:CNNPM15 =CMI5*(1+0EMMI5)+MIGIN*MMI5 511:CNNPF15 =CFI5*(I+oEMFI5)+MIGIN*MFI5 512:CNNPMl =CMl*(1+0EMMl)+MIGIN*MMl 513:CNNPFI =CFl*(1+0EMFl)+MIGIN*MFl 514:CNNPM2 =CM2*(1+0EMM2)+MIGIN*MM2 515:CNNPF2 =CF2*(1+0EMF2)+MIGIN*MF2 516:CNNPM3 =CM3*(1+0EMM3)+MIGIN*MM3 517:CNNPF3 =CF3*(1+0EMF3)+MIGIN*MF3 SIS:CNNPM4 =CM4*(1+0EMM4)+MIGIN*MM4 519:CNNPF4 =CF4*(1+0EMF4)+MIGIN*MF4 520:CNNPMS =CMS*(1+0EMM5)+MIGIN*MM5 521:CNNPF5 =CF5*(1+0EMF5)+MIGIN*MF5 522:CNNPM6 =CM6*(1+0EMM6)+MIGIN*MM6 523:CNNPF6 =CF6*(1+0EMF6)+MIGIN*MF6 524:CNNPM7 =CM7*(1+0EMM7)+MIGIN*MM7 525:CNNPF7 =CF7*(1+0EMF7)+MIGIN*MF7 526:CNNPMS =CMS*(1+0EMMS)+MIGIN*MMS 527:CNNPFS =CFS*(1+0EMFS)+MIGIN*MFS 52S:CNNPM9 =CM9*(1+0EMM9)+MIGIN*MM9 529:CNNPF9 =CF9*(1+0EMF9)+MIGIN*MF9 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 19S4,Model AS5.1 530:CNNTOT ==CNNPMI5+CNNPFI5+CNNPMI4+CNNPFI4+CNNPMI3+CNNPF13+ CNNPMI2+CNNPF12+CNNPMll+CNNPFll+CNNPMlO+CNNPFI0+CNNPM9+CNNPF9+ CNNPMS+CNNPFS+CNNPM7+CNNPF7+CNNPM6+CNNPF6+CNNPMS+CNNPF5+ CNNPM4+CNNPF4+CNNPM3+CNNPF3+CNNPM2+CNNPF2+CNNPMl+CNNPFl A-31 ==G13*NSF13*NATPF13(-1)+(1-G12)*NATPF12(-1)*NSF12 ==G12*NSF12*NATPF12(-1)+(1-Gll)*NATPFll(-1)*NSFll ==G13*NSM13*NATPM13(-1)+(1-G12)*NATPM12(-1)*NSM12 ==GIO*NSFIO*NATPFIO(-1)+(1-G9)*NATPF9(-1)*NSF9 ==Gll*NSMll*NATPMll(-l)+(l-GlO)*NATPMlO(-l)*NSMlO ;;;;.G10*NSMIO*NATPMIO(=1 Y+f1=G9J*NATPMn=lJ*NSM9--- ==G9*NSF9*NATPF9(-1)+(1--G8)*NATPF8(-1)*NSF8 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 ==Gll*NSFll*NATPFll(-l)+(l-GlO)*NATPFlO(-l)*NSFlO ==G12*NSM12*NATPM12(-1)+(l--G11)*NATPMll(--1)*NSM11 ==G8*NSM8*NATPM8(-1)+(1-G7)*NATPM7(-1)*NSM7 ==G8*NSF8*NATPF8(-1)+(l--G7)*NATPF7(-l)*NSF7 ==G7*NSF7*NATPF7(-1)+(1-G6)*NATPF6(-1)*NSF6 ==G9*NSM9*NATPM9(-1)+(l-G8)*NATPM8(-1)*NSM8 ==G6*NSF6*NATPF6(-1)+(1-G5)*NATPF5(-1)*NSF5 ==G7*NSM7*NATPM7(-1)+(1-G6)*NATPM6(-1)*NSM6 ==G6*NSM6*NATPM6(-1)+(1-G5)*NATPMS(-1)*NSMS ==G5*NSF5*NATPF5(-1)+(1-G4)*NATPF4(-1)*NSF4 ==G5*NSMS*NATPMS(-1)+(1-G4)*NATPM4(-1)*NSM4 ==G4*NSF4*NATPF4(-1)+(1-G3)*NATPF3(-1)*NSF3 ==G4*NSM4*NATPM4(-1)+(1-G3)*NATPM3(-1)*NSM3 ==G2*NSF2*NATPF2(-1)+(1-Gl)*NATPF1(-1)*NSFl ==G3*NSM3*NATPM3(-1)+(1-G2)*NATPM2(-1)*NSM2 ==G2*NSM2*NATPM2(-1)+(1-Gl)*NATPMl(-1)*NSMl ==G3*NSF3*NATPF3(-1)+(1-G2)*NATPF2(-1)*NSF2 531:NCM2 532:NCF2 533:NCM3 534:NCF3 535:NCM4 536:NCF4 537:NCMS 538:NCF5 539:NCM6 540:NCF6 541:NCM7 542:NCF7 543:NCM8 544:NCF8 545:NCM9 546:NCF9 547:NCMIO 548:NCFIO 549:NCMll 550:NCFll 551:NCM12 552:NCF12 553:NCM13 554:NCF13 Native Population A-32 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 555:NCM14 ==G14*NSM14*NATPM14(-l)+(l-G13)*NATPM13(-l)*NSM13 556:NCF14 ==G14*NSF14*NATPF14(-l)+(l-G13)*NATPF13(-l)*NSF13 557:NCM15 ==G15*NSM15*NATPM15(-l)+(l-G14)*NATPM14(-l)*NSM14 558:NCF15 ==G15*NSF15*NATPF15(-l)+(l-G14)*NATPF14(-l)*NSF14 559:NBTHTOT ==NCF4*NFERT4+NCF5*NFERT5+NCF6*NFERT6+NCF7*NFERT7+ NCF8*NFERT8+NCF9*NFERT9+NCFIO*NFERTIO+NCFll*NFERTll+BADD []560:NCMl ==NSEXDIV*NBTHTOT*NSURINFM 561:NCFl ==(l-NSEXDIV)*NBTHTOT*NSURINFF 562:NATPMl =NCMl*(l+NMMl) fJ 563:NATPFI =NCFl*(l+NMFl) 564:NATPM2 =NCM2*(l+NMM2) 565:NATPF2 =NCF2*(l+NMF2) 566:NATPM3 =NCM3*(l+NMM3) 567:NATPF3 =NCF3*(l+NMF3) 568:NATPM4 =NCM4*(l+NMM4) 569:NATPF4 =NCF4*(l+NMF4) 570:NATPMS =NCMS*(l+NMMS) 571:NATPF5 =NCF5*(l+NMF5) 572:NATPM6 =NCM6*(l+NMM6) 573:NATPF6 =NCF6*(l+NMF6) 574:NATPM7 =NCM7*(l+NMM7) 575 :NATPF7 =NCF7*(l+NMF7) lJ 576:NATPM8 =NCM8*(l+NMM8) 577:NATPF8 =NCF8*(l+NMF8) 578:NATPM9 =NCM9*(l+NMM9) 579:NATPF9 =NCF9*(l+NMF9) A-33 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 580:NATPM10 =NCM10*(1+NMM10) 581:NATPF10 =NCF10*(1+NMF10) 582:.NATPM11 =NCM11*(1+NMM11) 583:NATPF11 =NCF11*(1+NMF11) 584:NATPM12 =NCM12*(1+NMM12) 585:NATPF12 =NCF12*(1+NMF12) 586:NATPM13 =NCM13*(1+NMM13) 587:NATPF13 =NCF13*(1+NMF13) 588:NATPM14 =NCM14*(1+NMM14) 589:NATPF14 =NCF14*(1+NMF14) 590:NATPM15 =NCM15*(1+NMM15) 591:NATPF15 =NCF15*(1+NMF15) 592:NDTHINF ==NBTHTOT-NCM1-NCF1 593:NDTHTOT ==NDTHINF+NCM15(-1)*(1-NSM15)+NCF15(-1)*(1-NSF15)+ NCM14(-1)*(1-NSM14)+NCF14(-1)*(1-NSF14)+NCM13(-1)*(1-NSM13)+ NCF13 (-1)*(1-NSF13)+NCM12(-1)*(1-NSM12)+NCF12(-1)*(1-NSF12)+ NCM11(-1)*(1-NSM11)+NCF11(-1)*(1-NSF11)+NCMIO(-1)*(1~NSMIO)+ NCFIO(-1)*(1-NSF10)+NCM9 (-1)*(1-NSM9)+NCF9 (-1)*(1-NSF9 )+NCM8(-1)* (1-NSM8)+NCF8(-1)*(1-NSF8)+NCM7(-1)*(1-NSM7)+NCF7(-1)*(1-NSF7)+ NCM6 (-1)*(1-NSM6)+NCF6 (-1)*(1-NSF6)+NCM5 (-l)*(l-NSMS)+NCF5(-1)* (1-NSF5)+NCM4(-1)*(1-NSM4)+NCF4(-1)*(1-NSF4)+NCM3(-1)*(I-NSM3)+ ...........·····NCF:n=T)*rr:NSF3)+NCM2(=1 r*n=NS·M2J+NCF2(=f)*n=NSF2)+NCMfT=i)*···. ···'O"'··_·_·:-······_-_·__··_~········(l-::NSMT)·+NCFr(-::T)*ll-::NSFTr_..~_.. 594:NATTOT ==NATPM15+NATPF15+NATPM14+NATPF14+NATPM13+NATPF13+ NATPM12+NATPF12+NATPMl1+NATPF11+NATPMlO+NATPF10+NATPM9+NATPF9+ NATPM8+NATPF8+NATPM7+NATPF7+NATPM6+NATPF6+NATPMS+NATPF5+ NATPM4+NATPF4+NATPM3+NATPF3+NATPM2+NATPF2+NATPMl+NATPF1 595:POPNE =POPNE(-l)*NATTOT/NATTOT(-l) 596:NNATINC ==NBTHTOT-NDTHTOT A-34 I J } I 1 1 ] ] .j j ] ] .j ! ! j I ] I I ( Iil 11 IJ Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 597:MIGOUT =OEMM1*CM1+0EMM2*CM2+0EMM3*CM3+0EMM4*CM4+0EMM5*CM5+ OEMM6*CM6+0EMM7*CM7+0EMM8*CM8+0EMM9*CM9+0EMM10*CM10+0EMM11* CM11+0EMM12*CM12+0EMM13*CM13+oEMM14*CM14+0EMM15*CM15+0EMF1* CF1+oEMF2*CF2+0EMF3*CF3+0EMF4*CF4+0EMF5*CF5+oEMF6*CF6+0EMF7* CF7+OEMF8*CF8+0EMF9*CF9+0EMF10*CF10+0EMF11*CFi1+OEMF12*CF12+ OEMF13*CF13+0EMF14*CF14+0EMF15*CF15+NMM1*NCM1+NMM2*NCM2+NMM3* NCM3+NMM4*NCM4+NMM5*NCMS+NMM6*NCM6+NMM7*NCM7+NMM8*NCM8+NMM9* NCM9+NMM10*NCM10+NMM11*NCM1 1+NMM12*NCM12+NMM13*NCM13 +NMM14* NCM14+NMM15*NCM15+NMF1*NCF1+NMF2*NCF2+NMF3*NCF3+NMF4*NCF4+ NMF5*NCF5+NMF6*NCF6+NMF7*NCF7+NMF8*NCF8+NMF9*NCF9+NMF10*NCF10+ NMF11*NCF11+NMF12*NCF12+NMF13*NCF13+NMF14*NCF14+NMF15*NCF15 598:MIGIN =POPMIG-MIGOUT 599:POPM =EMGM/MILRAT 600:MILPCT =POPM/AFTOT Total Population 601:POP =CNNTOT+NATTOT+MILPCT*(AFTOT+MDTOT) 602:POPC =POP-POPM 603:POPM1 ==CNNPM1+MILPCT*MILM1+NATPM1 604:POPM2 ==CNNPM2+MILPCT*MILM2+NATPM2 605:POPM3 ==CNNPM3+MILPCT*MILM3+NATPM3 606:POPM4 ==CNNPM4+MILPCT*MILM4+NATPM4 607:POPMS --CNNPMS +MI LPCT*MI LM5 +NATPMS 608:POPM6 --CNNPM6 +MI LPCT*MI LM6 +NATPM6 609:POPM7 ==CNNPM7+MILPCT*MILM7+NATPM7 610:POPM8 --CNNPM8+MILPCT*MILM8+NATPM8 611:POPM9 --CNNPM9+MILPCT*MILM9+NATPM9 612:POPM10 --CNNPM10+MILPCT*MILM10+NATPM10 613:POPMll --CNNPM11+MILPCT*MILM11+NATPM11 614:POPM12 --CNNPM12+MILPCT*MILM12+NATPM12 615:POPM13 --CNNPM13 +MILPCT*MILM13 +NATPM13 A-35 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A8S.1 616 :POPM14 ==CNNPM14+MILPCT*MILM14+NATPM14 617:POPM1S ==CNNPM1S+MILPCT*MILM1S+NATPM1S 618:POPF1 ==CNNPF1+MILPCT*MILF1+NATPF1 619:POPF2 ==CNNPF2+MILPCT*MILF2+NATPF2 620:POPF3 ==CNNPF3+MILPCT*MILF3+NATPF3 621:POPF4 ==CNNPF4+MILPCT*MILF4+NATPF4 622:POPFS ==CNNPFS+MILPCT*MILFS+NATPF5 623:POPF6 ==CNNPF6+MILPCT*MILF6+NATPF6 624:POPF7 ==CNNPF7+MILPCT*MILF7+NATPF7 625:POPF8 ~=CNNPF8+MILPCT*MILF8+NATPF8 626:POPF9 ==CNNPF9+MILPCT*MILF9+NATPF9 627:POPF10 ~=CNNPF10+MILPCT*MILF10+NATPF10 628:POPF11 ==CNNPF11+MILPCT*MILF11+NATPF11 629:POPF12 ==CNNPF12+MILPCT*MILF1if-NATPFiT _.._----_._..._-.--_.._-_....- 630:POPF13 ==CNNPF13+MILPCT*MILF13+NATPF13 631:POPF14 ==CNNPF14+MILPCT*MILF14+NATPF14 632:POPF15 ==CNNPF1S+MILPCT*MILF15+NATPF15 .........·633":..BTOT ==BTHTOT+NBTHTOT 634:DTOT ==DTHTOT+NDTHTOT 635:POPNI9 ==BTOT-DTOT 636:NCBR ==NBTHTOT/NATTOT*1000 637:NCDR ==NDTHTOT/NATTOT*1000 638:CBR ==BTHTOT/CNNTOT*1000 639:CDR ==DTHTOT/CNNTOT*1000 640:BCRUDE ==BTOT/(CNNTOT+NATTOT)*1000 A-36 I 1 I I ] ] ~'l ] 1 ] ] 'I J .I ] 1 ,I j .J ~II . u o u u Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 641:DCRUDE ==DTOT/(CNNTOT+NATTOT)*1000 642:POPSKUL ==POPM3+POPM4+POPMS+POPF3+POPF4+POPF5 643:POPKIDS ==POPSKUL+POPM1+POPM2+POPF1+POPF2-POPMS-POPF5 644:POPGER =POPM15+POPF15 645:POPADS ==POP-POPKIDS-POPGER 646:POP.AD ==POPADS/POP 647:POP.KID ==POPKIDS/POP 648:POP.GER ==POPGER/POP 649:POP.MIL ==MILPCT*(AFTOT+MDTOT)/POP 650:POP.NAT ==NATTOT/POP 651:POP.CIV ==CNNTOT/POP 652:POPAVAGE ==O.5*«POPM1+POPF1)/POP)+3*«POPM2+POPF2)/POP)+7.5* «POPM3+POPF3)/POP)+12.5*«POPM4+POPF4)/POP)+17.5*«POPM5+ POPF5)/POP)+22.5*«POPM6+POPF6)/POP)+27.5*«POPM7+POPF 7)/POP)+ 32.5*«POPM8+POPF8)/POP)+37.5*«POPM9+POPF9)/POP)+42.5*«POPM10+ POPF10)/POP)+47.5*«POPM11+POPF11)/POP)+52.5*«POPM12+POPF12)1 POP)+57.5*«POPM13+POPF13)/POP)+62.5*«POPM14+POPF14)1POP)+ 67.5*«POPM15+POPF15)/POP) Labor Force and Migration 653:PLFDOMC ==CNNPMS+CNNPM6+CNNPM7+CNNPM8+CNNPM9+CNNPMIO+CNNPMll+ 11+CNNPM12+CNNPM13+CNNPM14+CNNPF5+CNNPF6+CNNPF7+CNNPF8+ CNNPF9+CNNPF10+CNNPFl 1+CNNPF12+CNNPF13 +CNNPF14 654:PLFDOMN ==NATPMS+NATPM6+NATPM7+NATPM8+NATPM9+NATPMIO+NATPMll+ NATPM12+NATPM13+NATPM14+NATPF5+NATPF6+NATPF7+NATPF8+NATPF9+ NATPF10+NATPFll+NATPF12+NATPF13+NATPF14 655:PLFDOMM ==MILPCT*(MILM5+MILM6+MILM7+MILM8+MILM9+MILMIO+ MILM11+MILM12+MILM13+MILM14+MILF5+MILF6+MILF7+MILF8+MILF9+ MILFIO+MILFll+MILF12+MILF13+MILF14-AFTOT) 656:PLFD9 ==PLFDOMC+PLFDOMN+PLFDOMM 657:LF ==LAFPRT*PLFD9 658:UNEMP ==LF-EM96 A-37 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 659:UNEMRATE ==UNEMP/LF 660:U.AK.US ==UNEMP/LF/UUS 661:DELEMP ==EM96-EM96(-1) 662:WR.AK.US ==LOG(R.WR97)-LOG(WEUS*100/PDUSCPI)-(LOG(R.WR97(-l»- LOG(WEUS(-1)*100/PDUSCPI(-1») 663:POPMIG =CMIG1+CMIG2*1/U.AK.US(-1)+CMIG3*WR.AK.US(-1)+CMIG4* DELEMP 664:Z7.8 --0 665:Z7.7 --0 666:Z7.6 --0 667:Z7.5 --0 668:Z7.4 --0 669:Z7.3 --0 670.:Z7.2 ==0 671:Z7.1 --0 672:Z7.0 --0 Household Formation 673:CHHM4 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE CNNPM4*(1-CPGQM4)*(HHRM4+-RCM47TP*{YR:::1980)J--..···...-._---.--.-......-..... 674:NHHM4 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE NATPM4*(1-NPGQM4)*(NHHRM4+ NRCM4/NTP*(YR-1980» 675:HHM4 ==CHHM4+NHHM4 676:CHHM5==IF YR LT 1980 THEN ELSE:CNNPM5*(l-CPGQM5)*(HHRM5+ RCMS/TP*{YR-1980» 677:NHHM5 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE NATPM5*(l-NPGQM5)*(NHHRM5+ NRCMS/NTP*(YR-1980» 6 78:HHM5 ==CHHM5+NHHM5+MHHM5*MILPCT A-38 1 'I j .j I J '1 'I J 1 l I ] I .] '·'1.~< J 1 I r 1; i r 1Ii Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 679:CHHM6 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE CNNPM6*(1-CPGQM6)*(HHRM6+ RCM6/TP*(YR-1980» 680:NHHM6 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE NATPM6*(1-NPGQM6)*(NHHRM6+ NRCM6/NTP*(YR-1980» 681:HHM6 ==CHHM6+NHHM6+MHHM6*MILPCT 682:CHHM7 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE CNNPM7*(1-CPGQM7)*(HHRM7+ RCM7/TP*(YR-1980» 683:NHHM7 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE NATPM7*(1-NPGQM7)*(NHHRM7+ NRCM7/NTP*(YR-1980» 684:HHM7 ==CHHM7+NHHM7+MHHM7*MILPCT 685:CHHM8 ==IFYR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE CNNPM8*(1-CPGQM8)*(HHRM8+ RCM8/TP*(YR-1980» 686:NHHM8 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE NATPM8*(1-NPGQM8)*(NHHRM8+ NRCM8/NTP*(YR-1980» 687:HHM8 ==CHHM8+NHHM8+MHHM8*MILPCT 688:CHHM9 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE CNNPM9*(1-CPGQM9)*(HHRM9+ RCM9/TP*(YR-1980» 689:NHHM9 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE NATPM9*(1-NPGQM9)*(NHHRM9+ NRCM9/NTP*(YR-1980» 690:HHM9 ==CHHM9+NHHM9+MHHM9*MILPCT 691:CHHM10 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE CNNPM10*(1-CPGQM10)* (HHRM10+RCM10/TP*(YR-1980» 692:NHHM10 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE NATPM10*(1-NPGQM10)* (NHHRM10+NRCM10/NTP*(YR-1980» 693:HHM10 ==CHHM10+NHHM10+MHHM10*MILPCT 694:CHHM11 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE CNNPM11*(1-CPGQM11)* (HHRM11+RCM11/TP*(YR-1980» 695:NHHM11 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE NATPM11*(1-NPGQM11)* (NHHRM11+NRCM11/NTP*(YR-1980» 696:HHM11 ==CHHM11+NHHM11+MHHM11*MILPCT 697:CHHM12 IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE CNNPM12*(1 CPGQM1 2)* (HHRM12+RCM12/TP*(YR-1980» A-39 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A8s.1 698:NHHM12 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE NATPM12*(I-NPGQM12)* (NHHRM12+NRCM12/NTP*(YR-1980» 699:HHM12 ==CHHM12+NHHM12+MHHMI2*MILPCT 700:CHHM13 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE CNNPM13*(1-CPGQM13)* (HHRMI3+RCM13/TP*(YR-1980» 701:NHHM13 ==IF YR LT1980THEN 1 ELSE NATPM13*(I-NPGQM13)* (NHHRM13+NRCM13/NTP*(YR-1980» 702:HHM13 ==CHHM13+NHHM13+MHHM13*MILPCT 703:CHHM14 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE CNNPM14*(1-CPGQM14)* (HHRM14+RCM14/TP*(YR-1980» 704:NHHM14 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE NATPM14*(I-NPGQM14)* (NHHRM14+NRCMI4/NTP*(YR-1980» 705:HHM14 ==CHHM14+NHHM14+MHHM14*MILPCT 706:CHHM1s ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE CNNPM1s*(I-CPGQM1s)* (HHRM1s+RCM1s/TP*(YR-1980» 707:NHHMls ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE NATPM1s*(I-NPGQM1S)* (NHHRM1S+NRCM1s/NTP*(YR.-1.~8(»)) 708:HHM1S ==CHHM1s+NHHMlS+MHHM1s*MILPCT 709:CHHF4 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE CNNPF4*(I-CPGQF4)*(HHRF4+ RCF4/TP*(YR-1980» 710:NHHF4 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE NATPF4*(l-NPGQF4)*(NHHRF4+ NRCF4/NTP*(YR-1980» 712:CHHFS ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE CNNPFS*(I-CPGQFs)*(HHRFS+ RCFS/TP*(YR-1980» 713:NHHFS ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE NATPFS*(l-NPGQFS)*(NHHRFS+ NRCFs/NTP*(YR-1980» 714:··HHFS··==·CHHFS+NHHFs+MHHFs*MILPCT 715:CHHF6 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE CNNPF6*(1-CPGQF6)*(HHRF6+ RCF6/TP*(YR-1980» 716:NHHF6 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE NATPF6*(1-NPGQF6)*(NHHRF6+ NRCF6/NTP*(YR-1980» A-40 ] ] I I 1 I ~ .J ..~ ,] I I I I I I ] I 1 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 19S4,Model ASS.l 717:HHF6 ==CHHF6+NHHF6+MHHF6*MILPCT 71S:CHHF7 ==IF YR LT 19S0 THEN 1 ELSE CNNPF7*(1-CPGQF7)*(HHRF7+ RCF7/TP*(YR-19S0» 719:NHHF7 ==IF YR LT 19S0 THEN 1 ELSE NATPF7*(1-NPGQF7)*(NHHRF7+ NRCF7/NTP*(YR-19S0» 720:HHF7 ==CHHF7+NHHF7+MHHF7*MILPCT 721:CHHFS ==IF YR LT 19S0 THEN 1 ELSE CNNPFS*(1-CPGQFS)*(HHRF8+ RCFS/TP*(YR-1980» 722:NHHF8 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE ATPFS*(1-NPGQF8)*(NHHRF8+ NRCFS/NTP*(YR-19S0» 723:HHFS ==CHHFS+NHHF8+MHHF8*MILPCT 724:CHHF9 ==IF YR LT 19S0 THEN 1 ELSE CNNPF9*(1-CPGQF9)*(HHRF9+ RCF9/TP*(YR-19S0» 72S:NHHF9 ==IF YR LT 19S0 THEN 1 ELSE NATPF9*(I-NPGQF9)*(NHHRF9+ NRCF9/NTP*(YR-19S0» 726:HHF9 ==CHHF9+NHHF9+MHHF9*MILPCT 727:CHHFI0 ==IF YR LT 19S0 THEN 1 ELSE CNNPFI0*(1-CPGQFI0)*(HHRFI0+ RCFI0/TP*(YR-19S0» 72S:NHHFI0 ==IF YR LT 19S0 THEN 1 ELSE NATPFI0*(1-NPGQFI0)* (NHHRFI0+NRCFI0/NTP*(YR-1980» 729:HHFI0 ==CHHFI0+NHHFI0+MHHFI0*MILPCT 730:CHHFll ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE CNNPFll*(l-CPGQFll)* (HHRFll+RCFll/TP*(YR-19S0» 731:NHHFll ==IF YR LT 19S0 THEN 1 ELSE NATPFll*(I-NPGQFll)* (NHHRFll+NRCFll/NTP*(YR-19S0» 732:HHFll ==CHHFll+NHHFll+MHHFll*MILPCT 733:CHHF12 ==IF YR LT 19S0 THEN 1 ELSE CNNPF12*(1-CPGQF12)* (HHRF12+RCF12/TP*(YR-19S0» 734:NHHF12 ==IF YR LT 19S0 THEN 1 ELSE NATPF12*(I-NPGQF12)*(NHHRF12+ NRCF12/NTP*(YR-19S0» 735:HF12 CHHF12 +NHHF12 +MHHF12*MILPCT A-41 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A8S.1 736:CHHF13 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE CNNPF13*(1-CPGQF13)* (HHRF13+RCF13/TP*(YR-1980» 737:NHHF13 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE NATPF13*(1-NPGQF13)* (NHHRF13+NRCF13/NTP*(YR-1980» 738:HHF13 ==CHHF13+NHHF13+MHHF13*MILPCT 739:CHHF14 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE CNNPF14*(1-CPGQF14)* (HHRF14+RCF14/TP*(YR-1980» 740:NHHF14 ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE NATPF14*(1-NPGQF14)* (NHHRF14+NRCF14/NTP*(YR-1980» 741:HHF14 ==CHHF14+NHHF14+MHHF14*MILPCT 742:CHHF1S ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE CNNPF1S*(1-CPGQF1S)* (HHRF1S+RCF1S/TP*(YR-1980» 743:NHHF1S ==IF YR LT 1980 THEN 1 ELSE NATPF1S*(1-NPGQF1S)*' (NHHRF1S+NRCF1S/NTP*(YR-1980» 744:HHF1S ==CHHF1S+NHHF1S+MHHF1S*MILPCT 74S:HH ==HHM4+HHM5+HHM6+HHM7 +HHM8+HHM9+HHM10+HHMll+HHM12+HHM13+ HHM14+HHM1S+HHF4+HHFS+HHF6+HHF7+HHF8+HHF9+HHF10+HHF11+HHF12+ ~~-~...._~_.~-_._._--_..__._-_._.._------------_.__............•__._-_.- HHF13+HHF14+HHF1S 746:POPCGQ ==CNNPM1*CPGQM1+CNNPM2*CPGQM2+CNNPM3*CPGQM3+CNNPM4* CPGQM4+CNNPM5*CPGQM?+CNNPM6*CPGQM6+CNNPM7*CPGQM7+CNNPM8* CPGQM8+CNNPM9*CPGQM9+CNNPM10*CPGQM10+CNNPMll*CPGQM11+CNNPM12* CPGQM12+CNNPM13*CPGQM13+CNNPM14*CPGQM14+CNNPM1S*CPGQM1S+ CNNPF1*CPGQF1+CNNPF2*CPGQF2+CNNPF3*CPGQF3+CNNPF4*CPGQF4+ CNNPFS*CPGQFS+CNNPF6*CPGQF6+CNNPF7*CPGQF7+CNNPF8*CPGQF8+ -CNNPF9*CPGQF9+CNNPF10*CPGQFIO+CNNPFll*CPGQFll+CNNPF12*CPGQFl2+ --------------------~------~-CNNPF1-S-*ePGQF-1-S+eNNPF-l-4*CPGQF-l-4+GNNPF-l-S*CPGQF-l-S,---- 747:POPNGQ ==NATPM1*NPGQM1+NATPM2*NPGQM2+NATPM3*NPGQM3+NATPM4* NPGQM4+NATPM5*NPGQM5+NATPM6*NPGQM6+NATPM7*NPGQM7+NATPM8* NPGQM8+NATPM9*NPGQM9+NATPM10*NPGQM10+NATPM11*NPGQM11+NATPM12* NPGQM12+NATPM13*NPGQM13+NATPM14*NPGQM14+NATPM1S*NPGQM1S+ NATPF1*NPGQF1+NATPF2*NPGQF2+NATPF3*NPGQF3+NATPF4*NPGQF4+ NATPFS*NPGQFS+NATPF6*NPGQF6+NATPF7*NPGQfl+NATPF8*NPGQF8+ NATPF-9*NPGQF9+NATPF10*NPGQF10+NATPF11*NPGQF11+NATPF-1Z*NPGQF12+ NATPF13*NPGQF13+NATPF14*NPGQF14+NATPF1S*NPGQF1S 748:POPGQ ==POPNGQ+POPCGQ+MILPCT*POPMGQ A-42 l- t] ! ! ), ,I \ 1 1 j I,I I J,, I ,I j J J Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 749:HHC ==CHHM4+CHHM5+CHHM6+CHHM7+CHHM8+CHHM9+CHHMI0+CHHMll+ CHHM12+CHHM13+CHHM14+CHHM15+CHHF4+CHHF5+CHHF6+CHHF7+CHHF8+ CHHF9+CHHFI0+CHHFll+CHHF12+CHHF13+CHHF14+CHHF15 750:HHN ==NHHM4+NHHM5+NHHM6+NHHM7+NHHM8+NHHM9+NHHMI0+NHHMll+ NHHM12+NHHM13+NHHM14+NHHM15+NHHF4+NHHF5+NHHF6+NHHF7+NHHF8+ NHHF9+NHHFIO+NHHFll+NHHF12+NHHF13 +NHHF14 +NHHF15 751:HHM ==MILPCT*(MHHM5+MHHM6+MHHM7+MHHM8+MHHM9+MHHMI0+MHHMl1+ MHHM12+MHHM13+MHHM14+MHHM15 +MHHF5+MHHF6 +MHHF 7+MHHF8 +MHHF9 + MHHFI0+MHHFll+MHHF12+MHHF13+MHHF14+MHHF15).I 752:HHSIZEN --(NATTOT-POPNGQ)/HHN 753:HHSIZEC --(CNNTOT-POPCGQ)/HHC 754:HHSIZEM ==MILPCT*(AFTOT+MDTOT-POPMGQ)/HHM 755:HHSIZE ==(POP-POPNGQ-POPCGQ-MILPCT*POPMGQ)/HH 756:HH24 ==HHF4+HHF5+HHF6+HHM4+HHM5+HHM6 757:HH25.29 ==HHF7+HHM7 758:HH30.54 ==HHF8+HHF9+HHFIO+HHFll+HHF12+HHM8+HHM9+HHMlO+HHM11+ HHM12 759:HH55 ==HHF13+HHF14+HHF15+HHM13+HHM14+HHM15 760:Z8.9 --0 761:Z8.8 --0 762:Z8.7 --0 763:Z8.6 --0 764:Z8.5 --0 765:Z8.4 --0 766:Z8.3 --0 767:Z8.2 --0 768:Z8.1 --0 769:Z8.0 --0 A-43 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A8S.1 NATIVE ECONOMIC ACTIVITY MODULE J } -, 770:EMNAT ==EMNATX 771:RNAT ==RNATX 772:EMRATE =EM96/POPC 773:EMRATNI =(I+PERNAl*(EMRATE-EMRATE(~I»/EMRATE(~I»*EMRATNl(-l)+ PERNA2*(EMRATE-EMRATNl(-I» 774:EMNA ==IF PIDIST EQ 1 THEN EMNAT(-I)*POPNE ELSE EMRATNl* POPNE+PERNA3*EMNC 775:EMNNC ==EM99-EMGM-EMNA ,,·1 I 776:EMRATN ==EMNA/POPNE 777:CEA9N= EMNC» 778:CEP9N = EMNC» 17'1:C_ECNN,= EMNC» 780:CEM9N = EMNC» 781:CET9N = EMNC» (I-PCINDA)*CEA9N(-I)+PCINDA*(EMA9/(EM96-EMPRO-PERNA3* (I-PCINDA)*CEP9N(-I)+PCINDA*(EMP9/(EM96-EMPRO~PERNA3* (I-PCINDA)*CEM9N(-I)+PCINDA*(EMM91 (EM96-EMPRO-PERNA3* (I-PCINDA)*CET9N(-I)+PCINDA*(EMT91 (EM96-EMPRO-PERNA3* '782:--'CECHN-;'Tl=PCINDA)*CECMNr=lJ+PCINDA*(EMCMT(EM9'6=EMPRO=PERNA3* 786:CES9N =(I-PCINDA)*CES9N(-I)+PCINDA*«EMS9-PERNA3*EMNC)/(EM96- EMPRO-PERNA3*EMNC» (I-PCINDA)*CED9N(-I)+PCINDA*(EMD91 (EM96-EMPRO-PERNA3* (I....:PCINDA)*CEFIN(....:I)+PCINDA*(EMFII(EM96"'-EMPRO;;:;;PERNA3* (I-PCINDA)*CEPUN(-I)+PCINDA*(EMPUI (EM96-EMPRO-PERNA3*783:CEPUN = EMNC» 784:CED9N = EMNC» 785:CEFIN == EMNC» I I I i I Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984.Model A8S.1 787:CEGFN =(l-PCINDA)*CEGFN(-1)+PCINDA*«EMGF-EMGM)/(EM96-EMPRO- PERNA3*EMNC)) 788:CEGAN =(l-PCINDA)*CEGAN(-1)+PCINDA*(EMGA/(EM96-EMPRO-PERNA3* EMNC)) 789:NEMA9N ==CEA9N*(EMNA-PERNA3*EMNC) 790:NWSA9N ==WRA9*NEMA9N/1000 791:NEMP9N ==CEP9N*(EMNA-PERNA3*EMNC) 792:NWSP9N ==WRP9*NEMP9N/1000 793:NEMCNN ==CECNN*(EMNA-PERNA3*EMNC) 794:NWSCNN ==WRCN*NEMCNN/1000 795:NEMM9N ==CEM9N*(EMNA-PERNA3*EMNC) 796:NWSM9N ==WRM9*NEMM9N/IOOO 797:NEMT9N ==CET9N*(EMNA-PERNA3*EMNC) 798:NWST9N ==WRT9*NEMT9N/IOOO 799:NEMCMN ==CECMN*(EMNA-PERNA3*EMNC) 800:NWSCMN ==WRCM*NEMCMN/IOOO 801:NEMPUN ==CEPUN*(EMNA-PERNA3*EMNC) 802:NWSPUN ==WRPU*NEMPUN/IOOO 803:NEMD9N ==CED9N*(EMNA-PERNA3*EMNC) 804:NWSD9N ==WRD9*NEMD9N/1000 805:NEMFIN ==CEFIN*(EMNA-PERNA3*EMNC) 806:NWSFIN ==WRFI*NEMFIN/1000 807:NEMS9N ==CES9N*(EMNA-PERNA3*EMNC)+PERNA3*EMNC 808:NWSS9N ==WRS9*NEMS9N/IOOO 809:NEMGFN ==CEGFN*(EMNA-PERNA3*EMNC) 810:NWSGFN -WRGF*NEMGFN/1000 A-4S 'i Institute of Social ! and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984 t Model A85.1 '"'J 811:NEMGAN ==CEGAN*(EMNA-PERNA3*EMNC) 812:NWSGAN ==WRGA*NEMGAN/1000 813: 814: 815: 816: 817: 818: 819: 820: 821: 822: 823: 824: WSNA ==NWSA9N+NWSP9N+NWSCNN+NWSM9N+NWST9N+NWSCMN+NWSPUN+ NWSD9N+NWSFIN+NWSS9N+NWSGFN+NWSGAN PIN1 ==PCYNA1*«PI-NCPI)/WS98)*WSNA PIN ==IF PIDIST EQ 1 THEN RNAT(-l)*PI ELSE PIN1+NCPI PINN ==PI-PIN R.PIN ==PIN*100/PDRPI R.PINN ==PINN*100/PDRPI P.PIN ==PIN*1000/POPNE P.PINCL ==NCPI*1000/POPNE P.PINN ==PINN*1000/(POP-POPNE) PR.PIN ==R.PIN*1000/POPNE PR.NCEXP ==NCEXP/POPNE/PDRPI*100000"--------~-.._.__.....•_-----_._---_.._-----_....•---_.... PR.PINCL ==PR.PIN+PR.NCEXP 825:PR.PINN ==R.PINN*1000/(POP-POPNE) 826:RAT1 ==PINN/(PI-PC12N*PC12RN*PCNC1*ANCSA) 827:P.DPINN =1000*(PINN-RAT1*(DPIRES+RTPIF+RTISCP»/(POP-POPNE) S-2S-:---P-;-DPI-NN'l-==-lOOO*-C-PI-N-P&1-2N*P&1-2-RN*PGNG-l*ANGSA-(-1-RNf-1-)*'---- (DPIRES+RTPIF+RTISCP»/POPNE 829:PR.DPINN =P.DPINN*100/PDRPI 830:PR.DPIN ==P.DPINN1*100/PDRPI+PC12N*PC12RN*PCNC1*ANCSA/POPNE* 100000/PDRPI 831:Z9.10==0 832:Z9.9 --0 833:Z9.8 --0 834:Z9.7 --0 A-46 ) 'I,} ,\ \,! 1, .J Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 835:Z9.6 --0 836:Z9.5 --0 837:Z9.4 --0 838:Z9.3 --0 839:Z9.2 --0 840:Z9.1 --0 841:Z9.0 --0 DEFINITIONAL EQUATIONS MODULE 842:R.WR98 ==WR98*100/PDRPI 843:R.WR97 =WR97*100/PDRPI 844:P.EX99S --EX99S*1000./POP 845:P.EXCAP --EXCAP*1000/POP 846:P.EXOPS --EXOPS*1000/POP 847:P.,EXBM ==EXGFBM*1000/POP 848:P.R99S ==R99S*1000./POP 849:P.RTIS ==RTIS*1000./POP 850:P.EXTRNS ==EXTRNS*1000/POP 851:P.EL99 --EL99*1000./POP 852:P.ELED --ELED*1000./POP 853:P.ELNED1 ==ELNED1*1000/POP 854:P.RLT99 ==RLT99*1000./POP 855:P.GEXP ==SLGEXP*1000/POP 856:P.BAL99 ==BAL99*1000/POP 857:P.BALPF ==BALPF*1000/POP A-47 858:P.BALGF9 ==BALGF9*1000/POP 859:P.RSIN ==RSIN*1000/POP 860:P.RSIP ==RSIP*1000/POP 861:P.RSEN ==RSEN*1000/POP' 862:P.GODT ==GODT*1000/POP 863:PR.EX99S ==P.EX99S*100/PDRPI 864:PR.EXBM ==EXGFBM*10**S/PDEXOPS/POP 865:PR.EXCAP ==P.EXCAP*100/PDCON 866:PR.EXOPS ==P.EXOPS*100/PDEXOPS 867:PR.R99S =~P.R99S*100/PDRPI 868:PR.RTIS ==P.RTIS*100/PDRPI 869:PR.EL99 ==P.EL99*100/PDRPI 870:PR.ELED ==P.ELED*100/PDRPI 871:PR.ELNED ==P.ELNED1*100/PDRPI 872:PR.GEXP ==P.GEXP*100/PDRPI 873:PR.GFC ==EXGFCHY*10**S/PDRPI/POP 874:PR.ECP ==EXCPSHY*10**S/PDRPI/POP ·······875:....PR:GFCN ==--EXGFCNH*10**S7PDRPIlPOP 876:PR.ECPN ==EXCPSNH*10**S/PDRPI/POP 877:PR.EXEDS --EXEDS*10**S/PDEXOPS/POP 878:PR.EXSSS --EXSSS*10**S/PDEXOPS/POP 879:PR.EXHES --EXHES*10**S/PDEXOPS/POP 880:PR.EXNRS --EXNRS*10**S/PDEXOPS/POP 881:PR.EXPPS --EXPPS*10**S/PDEXOPS/POP 882:PR.EXJUS ==EXJUS*10**S/PDEXOPS/POP A-48 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A8S.1 l .J 'Of I ) J ) \ \I -1 I I I I (./ I ,I I I .1 I \ I Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A8s.1 883:PR.EXCDS ==EXCDS*10**s/PDEXOPS/POP 884:PR.EXTRS ==EXTRS*10**s/PDEXOPS/POP 885:PR.EXGGS ==EXGGS*10**s/PDEXOPS/POP 886:PR.RLT99 ==RLT99*10**s/PDRPI/POP 887:PR.ELEDC ==ELEDCP*10**s/PDRPI/POP 888:PR.BAL99 ==P.BAL99*(100/PDRPI) 889:PR.BALPF ==P.BALPF*(100/PDRPI) 890:PR.BALG1 ==P.BALGF9*(100/PDRPI) 891:PR.BALP2 ==P.BALPF*(100/PDEXOPS) 892:PR.BALG2 ==P.BALGF9*(100/PDEXOPS) 893:PR.RSIN ==P.RSIN*(100/PDRPI) 894:PR.RSIP ==P.RSIP*(100/PDRPI) 895:PR.RSEN ==P.RSEN*(100/PDRPI) 896:PR.GODT ==P.GODT*(100/PDRPI) 897:PI.TXS ==RT99/PI 898:PI.EXS ==EXGF/PI 899:PI.TXL ==(RL99-RLT99-RLTF)/PI 900:PI.EXL ==(EL99-(GOBONDL-GOBONDL(-1»)/PI 901:PI.EXT ==(EXGF+(EL99-(GOBONDL-GOBONDL(-1»)-RLT99)/PI 902:PI.RSEN ==RSEN/PI 903:PI.GODT ==GODT/PI 904:PI.EX99S ==EX99S/PI • 905:PI.EL99 ==EL99/PI 906:PI.RL99 ==RL99/PI 907:PI.RLPT RLPT/PI A-49 908:PI.WS98 ==WS98/PI Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 ) I 1 .j I I !r ( I ,'1 ,1 f \ ,j r EXBM.CAB ==BALCABGF/EXGFBM EXBM.RV ==RSGFBM/EXGFBM EX.DSS ==EXDSS/EXGF A-50 EX.RP9S ==1-EX.NRP9 EX.RSIN ==RSIN/EXGF EX.RSEN ==RSEN/EXGF EX.NRP9 ==(RSEN+RSIN+RSFDN)/EXGF RSBM.REN ==RSENGF/RSGFBM RSBM.PF ==RSIPGF/RSGFBM RSBM.B99 ==(RSIG+RSID+RSIPGF)/RSGFBM RSBM.GF ==RSIG/RSGFBM RSBM.EXD ==EXDSS/RSGFBM RSBM.PET ==(RP9SGF+RSIG+RSID+EXPFTOGF*RSIP)/RSGFBM 909:PI.DPI ==DPI/PI 910:RL99.PT ==RLPT/RL99 911:RL99.RT ==RLT99/RL99 912:RS.FED ==RSFDN/R99S 913:RS.RP9S ==RP9S/R99S 914:RS.RSIN ==RSIN/R99S 915:RS.RSEN ==RSEN/R99S 916:RS.PET --(RP9S+RSIN)/R99S 917:RS.REC --(RSIN+RSEN)/R99S 918:RSBM.RP9 ==RP9SGF/RSGFBM 932: 928: 930: 931: 923: 929: 924: 927: 926: 922: 920: 919: 921: .-..~.-.~.-._.--.---~_..- 925: I I Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 933:EXBM.FD ==BAL99/EXGFBM 934:EXBM.GR1 ==(RSGFBM+EXPFCON1-RP9S)/EXGFBM 935:EXBM.END ==EXDFWITH/EXGFBM 936:DF.RSFD ==RSFDN*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI 937:DF.RP9S ==RP9S*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI 938:DF.RSGF ==RSGF*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI 939:DF.RSGFB ==RSGFBM*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI 940:DF.R99S ==R99S*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI 941:DF.RSEN ==RSEN*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI 942:DF.RSIN ==RSIN*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI 943:DF.EXGF ==EXGF*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI 944:DF.EXGFB ==EXGFBM*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI 945:DF.GOXBM ==(EXGFBM-EXGFCAP)*376.536/PDEXOPS 946:DF.BAL99 ==BAL99*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI 947:DF.BALDF ==BALDF*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI 948:DF.BALGF ==BALGF9*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI 949:DF.RSIP ==RSIP*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI 950:DF.BALPF ==BALPF*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI 951:DF.RSIPN ==RSIPNET*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI 952:DF.RSIDN ==RSIDNET*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI 953:DF.RSIGN ==RSIGNET*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI 954:DF.RSI99 ==RSI99NET*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI 955:DF.PI ==PI*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI 956:DF.WS98 ==WS98*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI --------'9:¥.S"7H::---BDiFF'oI.WSG9 -(WSGS+WSGb+WSGG+R'3S6G!M;{T')*It-JPI:'-ID:HRHP:YI:-i:BWlAi:l:lSrt-/-J:LPifDRI:(-IPI:'-:Il;--------------- A-51 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 958:DF.WSSP --(WST9+WSCM+WSPU+WSD9+WSFI+WSS9)*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI 959:DF.WSNS --(WSA9+WSM9+WSCN+WSP9)*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI 960:DF.WRG9 ==DF.WSG9*1000/EMG9 961:DF.WRSP ==DF.WSSP*1000/EMSP 962:DF.WRNS ==DF.WSNS*1000/(EMA9+EMM9+EMCN+EMP9) 963:DF.RSGFA ==RSGF.AFR*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI 964:DF.RP9SG ==RP9SGF*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI 965:DF.RSENG ==RSENGF*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI 966:DF.RTCS1 ==RTCS1*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI 967:DF.RTIS ==RTIS*PDRPIBAS/PPIW1_ 968:DF.RLPT ==RLPT*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI 969:DF.RLT99 ==RLT99*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI 970:DF.EL99 ==EL99*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI 971:DF.RSIPG ==RSIPGF*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI 972:DF.DPI ==DPI*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI 973:DF.EXLOK ==EXLIMOK*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI 974:DF.RSGFG ==RSGFGAP*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI ·····975:'-DF :APGFO ==APGFOPS*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI' 976:DF.APGFC ==APGFCAP*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI 977:DF.EXDSS ==EXDSS*PDRPIBAS/PDRPI 978:DFP.DPI ==DF.DPI*1000/POP 979:DFP.PI ==DF.PI*1000/POP 980:DFP.EXGF ==DF.EXGF*1000/POP 981:DFP.BAL9 ==DF.BAL99*1000/POP 982:DFP.EXLK ==DF.EXLOK*1000IPOP A-52 I I ) ,,1 J i -\ l j I I .i >.( i i l I I \ Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A8S.1 983:DFP.APGO ==DF.APGFO*1000/POP 984:DFP.APGC ==DF.APGFC*1000/POP 985:IM.REV ==(EXGF/PDRPI/POP-BASEXGF/BASPDRPI/BASEPOP)*PDRPI*POP 986:IM.BALRV =IM.BAL(-l)*(ROR+RORPPF)+IM.REV 987:,IM.BAL =IF YR EQ 1977 THEN 0 ELSE IM.BAL(-l)+IM.BALRV 988:IM.BAL99 ==BAL99+IM.BAL 989:IM.BALPC ==IM.BAL*1000/POP 990:IM.BALR ==IM.BAL*100/PDRPI 991:IM.BLRPC ==IM.BALR*1000/POP 992:EM.EMTCU ==EMTCU/EM99 993:EM.EMSUP ==EMSUP/EM99 994:EM.EMSP ==EMSP/EM99 995:EM.EMGA ==EMGA/EM99 996:EM.EMGF ==EMGF/EM99 997:EM.EMCN ==EMCN/EM99 998:G.PI ==PI/PI(-l)-l 999:G.PR.PI ==PR.PI/PR.PI(-l)-l 1000:G.PR.DPI ==PR.DPI/PR.DPI(-l)-l 1001:G.RSEN ==RSEN/RSEN(-l)-l 1002:G.EX99S ==EX99S/EX99S(-1)-1 1003:G.EL99 ==EL99/EL99(-1)-1 1004:G.PDRPI ==PDRPI/PDRPI(-l)-l 1005:G.POP ==POP/POP(-l)-l 1006:G.EM99 ==EM99/EM99(-1)-1 1007:G.SRPG PR.EX99S/PR.EX99S(1)1 A-53 1008:G.RNSPC ==P.RSEN/P.RSEN(-l)-l 1009:G.BAL99 ==BAL99/BAL99(-1)-1 1010:G.BAL9PC ==P.BAL99/P.BAL99(~1)-1 1011:G.R.WR98 ==R.WR98/R.WR98(-1)-1 1012:INX.DI ==PR.DPI/PR.DPIUS 1013:INX.DINN ==PR.DPINN/PR.DPIUS 1014:INX.DI8N ==PR.DPI8N/PR.DPIUS 1015:INX.WG ==R.WR97/(WEUS*S2*100/PDUSCPI) 1016:INX.S1 ==EMSUP/R.DPI 1017:INX.S2 ==EMTCU/R.DPI 1018:Z10.9 --0 1019:Z10.8 --0 1020:Z10.7 --0 1021:Z10.6 --0 1022:Z10.S ==0 1023:ZlO.4 --0 1024:ZlO.3 ==0 1026:ZlO.l ==0 1027:ZlO.O ==0 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A8S.1 ,I 1 I ,I J i \ I I .1 I ! ( I i j \ Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 19S4.Model ASS.1 INCOME DISTRIBUTION MODEL LINKS MODULE 102S:NNPM1 ==CNNPM5+MILPCT*MDPMS 1029:NNPM2 ==CNNPM6+MILPCT*MDPM6 1030:NNPM3 ==CNNPM7+CNNPMS+MILPCT*(MDPM7+MDPMS) 1031:NNPM4 ==CNNPM9+CNNPM10+~ILPCT*(MDPM9+MDPM10) 1032:NNPMS ==CNNPM11+CNNPM12+MILPCT*(MDPM11+MDPM12) 1033:NNPM6 ==CNNPM13+CNNPM14+MILPCT*(MDPM13+MDPM14) 1034:NNPM7 ==CNNPM1S+MILPCT*MDPM1S I 1035:NNPF1 ==CNNPF5+MILPCT*MDPFS I ==CNNPF6+MILPCT*MDPF61036:NNPF2 1037:NNPF3 ==CNNPF7+CNNPFS+MILPCT*(MDPF7+MDPFS) 1038:NNPF4 ==CNNPF9+CNNPF10+MILPCT*(MDPF9+MDPF10) 1039:NNPFS ==CNNPF11+CNNPF12+MILPCT*(MDPF11+MDPF12) 1040:NNPF6 ==CNNPF13+CNNPF14+MILPCT*(MDPF13+MDPF14) 1041:NNPF7 ==CNNPF1S+MILPCT*MDPF15 1042:NAPM1 ==NATPMS 1043:NAPM2 ==NATPM6 1044:NAPM3 ==NATPM7+NATPMS 1045:NAPM4 ==NATPM9+NATPM10 1046:NAPMS ==NATPM11+NATPM12 1047:NAPM6 ==NATPM13+NATPM14 1048:NAPM7 ==NATPM1S 1049:NAPF1 ==NATPFS 1050:NAPF2 ==NATPF6 1051:NAPF3 NATPF71NATPF8 A-5S Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 1052:NAPF4 ==NATPF9+NATPFIO 1053:NAPF5 ==NATPFll+NATPF12 1054:NAPF6 ==NATPF13+NATPF14 1055:NAPF7 ==NATPF15 1056:PF ==CNNPFl+CNNPF2+CNNPF3+CNNPF4+MILPCT*(MDPFl+MDPF2+MDPF3+ MDPF4) 1057:PM ==CNNPMl+CNNPM2+CNNPM3+CNNPM4+MILPCT*(MDPM1+MDPM2+MDPM3+ MDPM4) 1058:PFN ==NATPF1+NATPF2+NATPF3+NATPF4 1059:PMN ==NATPMl+NATPM2+NATPM3+NATPM4 1060:WRGMS ==(PI8~WS98)/(EMPRO*PDRPI)/C(PI8C-l)~WS98(-1)JI (EMPRO(-l)*PDRPI(-l») 1061:WRGP9 ==WRP9/PDRPI/(WRP9(-1)/PDRPI(-1» 1062:WRGCN ==WRCN/PDRPI/(WRCN(-l)/PDRPI(-l» 1064:WRGT9 ==WRT9/PDRPI/(WRT9(-1)/PDRPI(-1» 1065:WRGCU ==WRCU/PDRPI/(WRCU(-l)/PDRPI(-l» 1066:WRGD9 ==WRD9/PDRPI/(WRD9(-1)/PDRPI(-1» 1067:WRGFI ==WRFI/PDRPI/(WRFI(-l)/PDRPI(-l» 1069:WRGGC ==WRGC/PDRPI/(WRGC(-l)/PDRPI(-l» 1070:WRGGA ==WRGA/PDRPI/(WRGA(-l)/PDRPI(-l» 1071:PRINT ==PRINT2 1072:Xl::::::::::PI 1073:X2 ==P2 1074:X3 ==P3 1075:X4 ==P4 A-56 i ·1 I ,I 1 I \ 'I 1 I [ 1 ( J j I l I '~. Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A8s.1 1076:XS ==PS 1077:X6 ==P6 1078:WS98L ==WS98(-1) 1079:PIL ==PI(-l) 1080:Zll.9 ==0 1081:Zll.8 --0 1082:Zll.7 ==0 1083:Zll.6 ==0 1084:Zll.s --0 1085:Zl1.4 --0 1086:Zll.3 ==0 1087:Zll.2 --0 1088:Zll.l --0 1089:Zll.0 ==0 STATE GOVERNMENT CAPITAL STOCK MODULE 1090:EXC1 ==LGF1*(EXGFCAP+LGF1s*EXGFCAP(-1»+LFED1*(EXCPSFED+ LFED1S*EXCPSFED(-1»+LBOND1*(EXCPSGOB+LBOND1S*EXCPSGOB(-1»+ LSGF1*(EXSPCAP+LSGF1s*EXSPCAP(-1» 1091:EXC2 ==LGF2*(EXGFCAP+LGF1S*EXGFCAP(-1»+LFED2*(EXCPSFED+ LFED1s*EXCPSFED(-1»+LBOND2*(EXCPSGOB+LBOND1S*EXCPSGOB(-1»+ LSGF2*(EXSPCAP+LSGF1S*EXSPCAP(-1» 1092:EXC3 ==LGF3*(EXGFCAP+LGF1S*EXGFCAP(-1»+LFED3*(EXCPSFED+ LFED1S*EXCPSFED(-1»+LBOND3*(EXCPSGOB+LBOND1S*EXCPSGOB(-1»+ LSGF3*(EXSPCAP+LSGF1s*EXSPCAP(-1» 1093:EXC4 ==LGF4*(EXGFCAP+LGF1S*EXGFCAP(-1»+LFED4*(EXCPSFED+ LFED1S*EXCPSFED(-1»+LBOND4*(EXCPSGOB+LBOND1S*EXCPSGOB(-1»+ LSGF4*(EXSPCAP+LSGF1S*EXSPCAP(-1» A-S7 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 19S4,Model ASs.1 1094:EXCs ==LGFs*(EXGFCAP+LGF1s*EXGFCAP(-1»+LFEDs*(EXCPSFED+ LFED1s*EXCPSFED(-1»+LBONDs*(EXCPSGOB+LBOND1s*EXCPSGOB(-1»+ LSGFs*(EXSPCAP+LSGF1s*EXSPCAP(-1» 1095:EXC6 ==LGF6*(EXGFCAP+LGF1s*EXGFCAP(-1»+LFED6*(EXCPSFED+ LFED1s*EXCPSFED(-1»+LBOND6*(EXCPSGOB+LBOND1s*EXCPSGOB(-1»+ LSGF6*(EXSPCAP+LSGF1s*EXSPCAP(-1» 1096:EXC7 ==LGF7*(EXGFCAP+LGF1s*EXGFCAP(-1»+LFED7*(EXCPSFED+ LFED1s*EXCPSFED(-1»+LBOND7*(EXCPSGOB+LBOND1s*EXCPSGOB(-1»+ LSGF7*(EXSPCAP+LSGF1s*EXSPCAP(-1» 1097:EXCS ==LGFS*(EXGFCAP+LGF1s*EXGFCAP(-1»+LFEDS*(EXCPSFED+ LFED1s*EXCPSFED(-1»+LBONDS*(EXCPSGOB+LBOND1s*EXCPSGOB(-1»+ LSGFS*(EXSPCAP+LSGF1s*EXSPCAP(-1» 109S:EXC9 ==LGF9*(EXGFCAP+LGF1s*EXGFCAP(-1»+LFED9*(EXCPSFED+ LFED1s*EXCPSFED(-1»+LBOND9*(EXCPSGOB+LBOND1s*EXCPSGOB(~1»+ LSGF9*(EXSPCAP+LSGF1s*EXSPCAP(-1» 1099:EXC101 ==LGF10*(EXGFCAP+LGF1s*EXGFCAP(-1»+LFED10*(EXCPSFED+ LFED1s*EXCPSFED(-1»+LBOND10*(EXCPSGOB+LBOND1s*EXCPSGOB(-l»+ LSGF10*(EXSPCAP+LSGF1s*EXSPCAP(-1» 1100:EXC10 ==EXC101*LMUNCAP 1101:EXCli ::::::LGFii*(EXGFCAP+LGFis*EXGFC.AP(-l))+t..FED11*~(EXCPSFED+ LFED1s*EXCPSFED(-1»+LBOND11*(EXCPSGOB+LBOND1s*EXCPSGOB(-1»+ LSGF11*(EXSPCAP+LSGF1s*EXSPCAP(-1» 1102:EXC12 ==LGF12*(EXGFCAP+LGF1s*EXGFCAP(-1»+LFED12*(EXCPSFED+ LFED1s*EXCPSFED(-1»+LBOND12*(EXCPSGOB+LBOND1s*EXCPSGOB(-l»+ LSGF12*(EXSPCAP+LSGF1s*EXSPCAP(-1» -1103-:--EXCI3~==-LGFI3*(EXGFCAPTLGF1s*EXGFCAP (-;;;;;1)-)+LFED-l3*(-EXCPSFED+ ·--bF-EDl-s*E-XGPSFED(·-l-H+LBONDl-3*-<-EXGFSGOB+LBONDl-s~-EXCP-SGOB(-l~)~},f,­ LSGF13*(EXSPCAP+LSGF1s*EXSPCAP(-1» 1104:EXC14 ==LGF14*(EXGFCAP+LGF1s*EXGFCAP(-1»+LFED14*(EXCPSFED+ LFED1s*EXCPSFED(-1»+LBOND14*(EXCPSGOB+LBOND1s*EXCPSGOB(-1»+ LSGF14*(EXSPCAP+LSGF1s*EXSPCAP(-1» 1105:EXCls ==LGF1s*EXGFCAP+LFED1s*EXCPSFED+LBOND1s*EXCPSGOB+ LSGF1s*EXSPCAP 1106:EXCT ==EXC1+EXC2+EXC3+EXCs+EXC6+EXC7+EXCS+EXC9+EXC10+EXC11+ EXC12+EXC13+EXC14 1107:EXCRF1 ==REPF1*R.CAP1(-1)*(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 110S:EXCRS1 ==REPS1*R.CAP1(-1)*(PDCON/PDCONBAS) A-sS Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A8S.1 1109:EXCRL1 ==REPL1*R.CAP1(-1)*(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1110:EXCRU1 ==REPU1*R.CAP1(~1)*(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1111:EXCRF2 ==REPF2*R.CAP2(-1)*(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1112:EXCRS2 ==REPS2*R.CAP2(-1)*(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1113:EXCRL2 ==REPL2*R.CAP2(-1)*(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1114:EXCRU2 ==REPU2*R.CAP2(-1)*(PDCON/PDCONBAS) IllS:EXCRF3 ==REPF3*R.CAP3(-1)*(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1116:EXCRS3 ==REPS3*R.CAP3(-1)*(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1117:EXCRL3 ==REPL3*R.CAP3(-1)*(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1118:EXCRU3 ==REPU3*R.CAP3(-1)*(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1119:EXCRF4 ==REPF4*R.CAP4(-1)*(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1120:EXCRS4 ==REPS4*R.CAP4(-1)*(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1121:EXCRL4 ==REPL4*R.CAP4(-1)*(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1122:EXCRU4 ==REPU4*R.CAP4(-1)*(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1123:EXCRFS ==REPFS*R.CAPS(-l)*(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1124:EXCRSS ==REPSS*R.CAPS(-l)*(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 112S:EXCRLS ==REPLS*R.CAPS(-l)*(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1126:EXCRUS ==REPUS*R.CAPS(-l)*(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1127:EXCRF6 ==REPF6*R.CAP6(-1)*(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1128:EXCRS6 ==REPS6*R.CAP6(-1)*(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1129:EXCRL6 ==REPL6*R.CAP6(-1)*(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1130:EXCRU6 ==REPU6*R.CAP6(-1)*(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1131:EXCRF7 ==REPF7*R.CAP7(-1)*(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1132:EXCRS7 ==REPS7*R.CAP7(-1)*(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1133:EXGRL7 REPL7*R.GAP7(l)*(PDeeNfPBeaNBAS) 1134:EXCRU7 ==REPU7*R.CAP7(-1)*(PDCON/PDCONBAS) A-S9 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 1135:EXCRF8 ==REPFS*R.CAPS(-l)*(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1136:EXCRSS ==REPSS*R.CAPS(-l)*(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1137:EXCRLS ==REPLS*R.CAP8(-1)*(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1138:EXCRU8 ==REPUS*R.CAP8(-1)*(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1139:EXCRF9 ==REPF9*R.CAP9(-1)*(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1140:EXCRS9 ==REPS9*R.CAP9(-1)*(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1141:EXCRL9 ==REPL9*R.CAP9(-i)*(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1142:EXCRU9 ==REPU9*R.CAP9(-1)*(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1143:EXCRF10 ==REPF10*R.CAP10(-1)*(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1144:EXCRS10 ==REPS10*R.CAP10(-1)*(PDCONIPDCONBAS) 1145:EXCRL10 ==REPL10*R.CAP10(-1)*(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1146:EXCRU10 ==REPU10*R.CAP10(-1)*(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1147:EXCRF11 ==REPF11*R.CAP11(-1)*(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 114S:EXCRS11 ==REPS11*R.CAP11(-1)*(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1149:EXCRL11 ==REPL11*R.CAP11(-1)*(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1150:EXCRU11 ==REPU11*R.CAP11(-1)*(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1151:EXCRF12 ==REPF12*R.GAP12(-1)*(PDCON/PDCONBAS) .....~__---==_--=-_,_.cE=:X=-::C=.=R=S_1=_2===REPS12*R.CAP12 (-1)*(PDCON IPDCONBAS) 1153:EXCRL12 ==REPL12*R.CAP12(~1)*(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1154:EXCRU12 ==REPU12*R.CAP12(-1)*(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1155:EXCRF13 ==REPF13*R.CAP13(-1)*(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1156:EXCRS13 ==REPS13*R.CAP13(-1)*(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1157:EXCRL13 ==REPL13*R.CAP13(-1)*(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1158:EXCRU13 ==REPU13*R.CAP13(-1)*(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1159:EXCRF14 ==REPF14*R.CAP14(-1)*(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1160:EXCRS14 ==REPS14*R.CAP14(-1)*(PDCON/PDCONBAS) A-60 J l I I 1 .j j 1 j I I I j t J j } i \ Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A8S.1 1161:EXCRL14 ==REPL14*R.CAP14{-l)*{PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1162:EXCRU14 ==REPU14*R.CAP14{-l)*{PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1163:EXCRF15 ==REPF1S*R.CAP1S{-l)*{PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1164:EXCRS15 ==REPS1S*R.CAP15{-l)*{PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1165:EXCRL15 ==REPL1S*R.CAP15{-l)*{PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1166:EXCRU15 ==REPU1S*R.CAP15{-l)*{PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1167:EXCRFT ==EXCRF1+EXCRF2+EXCRF3+EXCRF4+EXCRFS+EXCRF6+EXCRF7+ EXCRF8+EXCRF9+EXCRF10+EXCRF11+EXCRF12+EXCRF13+EXCRF14+EXCRF1S 1168:EXCRST ==EXCRS1+EXCRS2+EXCRS3+EXCRS4+EXCRSS+EXCRS6+EXCRS7+ EXCRS8+EXCRS9+EXCRS10+EXCRS11+EXCRS12+EXCRS13+EXCRS14+EXCRS1S 1169:EXCRLT ==EXCRL1+EXCRL2+EXCRL3+EXCRL4+EXCRLS+EXCRL6+EXCRL7+ EXCRL8+EXCRL9+EXCRL10+EXCRL11+EXCRL12+EXCRL13+EXCRL14+EXCRL1S 1170:EXCRUT ==EXCRU1+EXCRU2+EXCRU3+EXCRU4+EXCRUS+EXCRU6+EXCRU7+ EXCRU8+EXCRU9+EXCRU10+EXCRU11+EXCRU12+EXCRU13+EXCRU14+EXCRU1S A-61 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A8S.1 1185:EXCRT1S ==EXCRF1S+EXCRS1S+EXCRL15+EXCRU1S 1186:EXCRTT ==EXCRFT+EXCRST+EXCRLT+EXCRUT 1187:EXOMF1 ==OMF1*'R.CAP1(-1)*'(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1188:EXOMS1 ==OMS1*'R.CAP1(-1)*'(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1189:EXOML1 ==OML1*'R.CAP1(-1)*'(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1190:EXOMU1 ==OMU1*'R.CAP1(-1)*'(PDCON/PDCONBAS) ( 1191:EXOMF2 ==OMF2*'R.CAP2(-1)*'(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1192:EXOMS2 ==OMS2*'R.CAP2(-1)*'(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1193:EXOML2 ==OML2*'R.CAP2(-1)*'(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1194:~EXOMU2 ::::::.OMU2:1cR.CAP2(.....1)*'(PPCOl\l/:PPGONaAS) 119S:EXOMF3 ==OMF3*'R.CAP3(-1)*'(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1196:EXOMS3 ==OMS3*'R.CAP3(-1)*'(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1197:EXOML3 ==OML3*'R.CAP3(-1)*'(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1198:EXOMU3 ==OMU3*'R.CAP3(-1)*'(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1199:EXOMF4 ==OMF4*'R.CAP4(-1)*'(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1200:EXOMS4 ==OMS4*'R.CAP4(.;..1)*'(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1201:EXOML4 ==OML4*'R.CAP4(-1)*'(PDCON/PDCONBAS) _·············i:f<5:r:Ex6Mt.J4·;;;OMt.J4*'R.CAP4(:....n*'(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1203:EXOMFS ==OMFS*'R.CAPS(-l)*'(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1204:EXOMSS ==OMSS*'R.CAPS(-l)*'(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1205:EXOMLS ==OMLS*'R.CAPS(-l)*'(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1206:EXOMUS ==OMUS*'R.CAPS(-l)*'(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1207:EXOMF6 ==OMF6*'R.CAP6(-1)*'(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1208:EXOMS6 ==OMS6*'R.CAP6(-1)*'(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1209:EXOML6 ==OML6*'R.CAP6(-1)*'(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1210:EXOMU6 ==OMU6*'R.CAP6(-1)*'(PDCON/PDCONBAS) A-62 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 19S4,Model AS5.1 1211:EXOMF7 ==OMF7*R.CAP7(-1)*(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1212:EXOMS7 ==OMS7*R.CAP7(-1)*(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1213:EXOML7 ==OML7*R.CAP7(-1)*(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1214:EXOMU7 ==OMU7*R.CAP7(-1)*(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1215:EXOMFS ==OMFS*R.CAPS(-l)*(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1216:EXOMSS ==OMSS*R.CAPS(-l)*(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1217:EXOMLS ==OMLS*R.CAPS(-1)*(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 121S:EXOMUS ==OMUS*R.CAPS(-l)*(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1219:EXOMF9 ==OMF9*R.CAP9(-1)*(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1220:EXOMS9 ==OMS9*R.CAP9(-1)*(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1221:EXOML9 ==OML9*R.CAP9(-1)*(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1222:EXOMU9 ==OMU9*R.CAP9(-1)*(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1223:EXOMF10 ==OMF10*R.CAP10(-1)*(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1224:EXOMS10 ==OMS10*R.CAP10(-1)*(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1225:EXOML10 ==OML10*R.CAP10(-1)*(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1226:EXOMU10 ==OMU10*R.CAP10(-1)*(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1227 :EXOMF11 ==OMF11*R.CAP11(-1)*(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 122S:EXOMS11 ==OMS11*R.CAP11(-1)*(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1229:EXOMLll ==OML11*R.CAP11(-1)*(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1230:EXOMU11 ==OMU11*R.CAP11(-1)*(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1231:EXOMF12 ==OMF12*R.CAP12(-1)*(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1232:EXOMS12 ==OMS12*R.CAP12(-1)*(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1233:EXOML12 ==OML12*R.CAP12(-1)*(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1234:EXOMU12 ==OMU12*R.CAP12(-1)*(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1235:EXOMF13 OMF13*R.CAP13(l)*(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1236:EXOMS13 ==OMS13*R.CAP13(-1)*(PDCON/PDCONBAS) A-63 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A8S.1 1237:EXOML13 ==OML13*R.CAP13(-1)*(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1238:EXOMU13 ==OMU13*R.CAP13(-1)*(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1239:EXOMF14 ==OMF14*R.CAP14(-1)*(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1240:EXOMS14 ==OMS14*R.CAP14(-1)*(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1241:EXOML14 ==OML14*R.CAP14(-1)*(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1242:EXOMU14 ==OMU14*R.CAP14(-1)*(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1243:EXOMF15 ==OMF15*R.CAP15(-1)*(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1244:EXOMS15 ==OMS15*R.CAP15(-1)*(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1245:EXOML15 ==OML15*R.CAP15(-1)*(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1246:EXOMU15 ==OMU15*R.CAP15(-1)*(PDCON/PDCONBAS) 1247:EXOMT1 ==EXOMF1+EXOMS1+EXOML1+EXOMU1 1248:EXOMT2 ==EXOMF2+EXOMS2+EXOML2+EXOMU2 1249:EXOMT3 ==EXOMF3+EXOMS3+EXOML3+EXOMU3 1250:EXOMT4 ==EXOMF4+EXOMS4+EXOML4+EXOMU4 1251:EXOMT5 ==EXOMF5+EXOMS5+EXOML5+EXOMU5 1252:EXOMT6 ==EXOMF6+EXOMS6+EXOML6+EXOMU6 1253:EXOMT7 ==EXOMF7+EXOMS7+EXOML7+EXOMU7 1254:.EXOMT8 ;;;······EXoMF·8+EX6M;S8+EXb~8+EXOMU8 1255:EXOMT9 ==EXOMF9+EXOMS9+EXOML9+EXOMU9 1256:EXOMT10 ==EXOMF10+EXOMS10+EXOML10+EXOMU10 1257:EXOMTll ==EXOMF11+EXOMS11+EXOML11+EXOMU11 1258:EXOMT12 ==EXOMF12+EXOMS12+EXOML12+EXOMU12 1259:EXOMT13 ==EXOMF13+EXOMS13+EXOML13+EXOMU13 1260:EXOMT14 ==EXOMF14+EXOMS14+EXOML14+EXOMU14 1261:EXOMT15 ==EXOMF15+EXOMS1S+EXOML15+EXOMU1S A-64 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984.Model A8S.1 1262:EXOMFT ==EXOMF1+EXOMF2+EXOMF3+EXOMF4+EXOMFS+EXOMF6+EXOMF7+ EXOMF8+EXOMF9+EXOMF10+EXOMF11+EXOMF12+EXOMF13 +EXOMF14 +EXO MF1S 1263:EXOMST ==EXOMS1+EXOMS2+EXOMS3+EXOMS4+EXOMSS+EXOMS6+EXOMS7+ EXOMS8+EXOMS 9+EXOMS 10+EXOMS11+EXOMS 12+EXOMS13 +EXOMS14 +EXOMS1S 1264:EXOMLT ==EXOML1+EXOML2+EXOML3+EXOML4+EXOMLS+EXOML6+EXOML7+ EXOML8+EXOML9+EXOML10+EXOML11+EXOML12+EXOML13+EXOML14+EXOML1S 1265:EXOMUT ==EXOMU1+EXOMU2+EXOMU3+EXOMU4+EXOMUS+EXOMU6+EXOMU7+ EXOMU8+EXOMU9+EXOMU10+EXOMU11+EXOMU12+EXOMU13 +EXOMU14 +EXOMU1S 1266:EXOMTT ==EXOMFT+EXOMST+EXOMLT+EXOMUT 1267:EXCN1 ==EXC1-EXCRS1 1268:EXCN2 ==EXC2-EXCRS2 1269:EXCN3 ==EXC3-EXCRS3 II,1270:EXCN4 --EXC4-EXCRS4 1271:EXCNS ==EXCS-EXCRSS 1272:EXCN6 ==EXC6-EXCRS6 1273:EXCN7 ==EXC7-EXCRS7 1274:EXCN8 ==EXC8-EXCRS8 127S:EXCN9 ==EXC9-EXCRS9 1276:EXCN10 ==EXC10-EXCRS10 1277:EXCNll ==EXC11-EXCRS11 1278:EXCN12 ==EXC12-EXCRS12 1279:EXCN13 ==EXC13-EXCRS13 1280:EXCN14 ==EXC14-EXCRS14 1281:EXCN1S ==EXC1S-EXCRS1S 1282:EXCNT ==EXCN1+EXCN2+EXCN3+EXCNS+EXCN6+EXCN7+EXCN8+EXCN9+ EXCN10+EXCN11+EXCN12+EXCN13+EXCN14 1283:R.CAP1 =IF YR EQ 1982 THEN 3000 ELSE R.CAP1(-1)* (1/(1±RCDEP1»+EXCJ*(PDCONBAS/PDCON) A-6S Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 1284:R.CAP2 =IF YR EQ 1982 THEN 333 ELSE R.CAP2(-1)*(1I(1+RCDEP2»+ EXC2*(PDCONBAS/PDCON) 1285:R.CAP3 =IF YR EQ 1982 THEN 250 ELSE R.CAP3(-1)*(1/(1+RCDEP3»+ EXC3*(PDCONBAS/PDCON) 1286:R.CAP4 = 0 1287:R.CAP5 =IF YR EQ 1982 THEN 3097 ELSE R.CAP5(-1)*(1/(1+RCDEP5»+ EXC5*(PDCONBAS/PDCON) 1288:R.CAP6 =IF YR EQ 1982 THEN 963 ELSE R.CAP6(-1)*(1/(1+RCDEP6»+ EXC6*(PDCONBAS/PDCON) 1289:R.CAP7 =IF YR EQ 1982 THEN 677 ELSE R.CAP7(-1)*(1/(1+RCDEP7»+ EXC7*(PDCONBAS/PDCON) 1290:R.CAP8 =IF YR EQ 1982 THEN 0 ELSE R.CAP8(-1)*(1/(1+RCDEP8»+ EXC8*(PDCONBAS/PDCON) 1291:R.CAP9 =IF YR EQ 1982 THEN 0 ELSE R.CAP9(-1)*(1/(1+RCDEP9»+ EXC9*(PDCONBAS/PDCON) 1292:R.CAP10 =IF YR EQ 1982 THEN 271 ELSE R.CAP10(-1)*(11 (1+RCDEP10»+EXC10*(PDCONBAS/PDCON) 1293:R.CAP11 ~IF YR EQ 1982 THEN 0 ELSE R.CAP11(-1)*(11 (1+RCDEP11»+EXC11*(PDCONBAS/PDCON) 1294:R.CAP12 =IF YR EQ 1982 THEN 0 ELSE R.CAP12(-1)*(11 (1+RCDEP12»+EXC12*(PDCONBAS/PDCON) 1295:R.CAP13 =IF YR EQ 1982 THEN 0 ELSE R.CAP13(~1)*(11 (1+RCDEP13»+EXC13*(PDCONBAS/PDCON) ·~~-------_··~------~];296-:--R-;-CAPr4-=--rF···YR-EQ~1;982-THEN-··-O-·EI;;SE-R-.-eAPl-4-(-~1)*·(-H­ (1+RCDEP14»+EXC14*(PDCONBAS/PDCON) 1297:R.CAP15 =IF YR EQ 1982 THEN 764 ELSE EXC15*(PDCONBAS/PDCON) 1298:R.CAPT ==R.CAP1+R.CAP2+R.CAP3+R.CAP4+R.CAP5+R.CAP6+R.CAP7+ R.CAP8+R.CAP9+R.CAP10+R.CAP11+R.CAP12+R.CAP13+R.CAP14+R.CAP15 A-66 I 1 f i ! [ \ I --I ( t ! I ! l 1 J ( \ Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 APPENDIX B ISER MAP ALASKA ECONOMIC MODEL: COEFFICIENT AND PARAMETER VALUES A85 .1 CONSTANT FILE FOR MODEL A85.1 OF THE ALASKA ECONOMY. CREATED BY THE INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH OF THE UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA UNDER THE MAN-IN-THE-ARCTIC PROGRAM FUNDED BY THE NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION.REGRESSION COEF- FICIENTS HAVE THE PREFIX C FOLLOWED BY A NUMBER.THIS FILE WAS CRE~TED DECEMBER 1984. AFTOT 23.323 CMIG1 -13.5649 CMIG2 13.7169 CMIG3 35.7941 CMIG4 0.802671 CPGQF1 O. CPGQF10 0.0036 CPGQFll 0.0092 CPGQF12 0.0051 CPGQF13 0.0093 CPGQF14 0.0032 CPGQF15 0.0751 CPGQF2 0.0045 CPGQF3 0.0032 CPGQF4 0.0031 CPGQF5 0.004 CPGQF6 0.0238 CPGQF7 0.004 CPGQF8 0.0022 CPGQF9 0.0011 CPGQM1 O. CPGQM10 0.0369 CPGQMll 0.0392 CPGQM12 0.0265 CPGQM13 0.0266 CPGQM14 0.0268 CPGQM15 0.0648 CPGQM2 0.0071 CPGQM3 0.0046 CPGQM4 0.0044 CPGQM5 0.0435 CPGQM6 0.0729 CPGQM7 0.0238 CPGQM8 0.0166 CPGQM9 0.0278 C1A 0.42666 C1B 0.050183 C1C 0.371052 C10A 23.4911 C10B 0.861373 C10C 7.49112 C100A -4.28484 C100B 1.23652 C100C -0.997673 C101A 4.26682 C101B 0.466883 C102A 4.10141 C102B 1.81641 C102C 1.62414 C102D -0.098536 C102F 0.306609 C103A -19.9032 C103B 15.9107 C103C 0.707235 C104A 2.14567 C104B 0.992416 C105A 3.33749 1 C105B 0.009737 C105C 0.828288 C106A -15.8977 I C106B 0.067035 C107A -55.8648 C107B 0.015623 C108A -2.79176 C108B 0.479263 C109A -1.92152 C109B 0.755283 C11A -2.50986 C11B 0.023634 C12A 7.17255 C12B 0.523824 C14A 3.33343 C14B 0.162868 C14C -0.113976 C15A -9.09127 C15B 0.301513 C16A -70.4036 C16B 0.04051 C16C 137.48 C17A -10.9796 C17B 0.119691 C17C 76.4453 C18A 27.1904 C18B 0.011735 C18C 0.003742 C18D -21.1564 C19A -1.18305 )J C19B 1.03791 C2A 1.50943 C2B 0.274289 C20A -2.68296 C20B 1.01735 C21A 0.363308 C21B 0.930152 C21C 0.042017 C22A -0.898424 C22B 1.08262 C23A -2.75748 C23B 1.34193 C23C 0.930092 C23D 0.430625 C24A -3.45059 624B 1.19903 625A 0.468259 625B 0.527066 C26A -1.76919 C26B 1.00396 C26C -0.118769 C27A -6.17432 C27B 0.01118 C27C -0.008996 B-1 Institute of Social IandEconomicResearch MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 j C28A 80.1874 C28B 1.09189 C28C 3.14996 IC29A-3.76751 C29B 0.802598 C3A 2.7822 C3B 0.246103 C30A -4.09671 C30B 1.19138 C31A -6.63097 C31B 1.21304 C32A -1.8791 IC32B0.663336 C32C 1.C320 5. C33A -5.44842 C33B 0.8965 C34A 0.286354 C34B 0.002698 C34C -0.649464 C35A -1.94609 C35B 0.592204 .C36A -46.9736 C36B -126.31 1C36C7.96933 C360 1.06682 C36F 93.4497.... C37A -5.49422 C37B 0.642659 C38A -182.034 C38B 1.05111 C39A -6.87313 C39B 0.015955 JC4A-1.6632 C4B 0.672086 C40A -13.9151 C40B 2.99018 C41A -4.96533 C41B 0.261135 C42A 0.925213 C42B 0.171959 C43A -2.04504 \C43B 0.427355 C43C 0.064835 C430 -0.053429 C43E -2.99594 C44A 10.228 C44B 0.067055 C44C 0.025531 C440 -37.5112 C45A 27.3602 C45B 4.28865 C45C 5.06706 C450 -7.20871 .JCA6A......1.8~278 C46B 0.907323 C47A -11.0252 C47B 1.83943 C48A -4.69794 C4SB 0.942175 C49A -3.70365 C49B 0.726185 C5A 0.106732 ·'1C5B0.596163 C50A -0.314253 C50B 0.01542 C51A -80.4494 C51B 0.035444 C52A 3.70393 C52B 1.80441 C53A 4.79314 C53B 3.02946 .IC53C3.83987 C530 ...0.273211 C53F 0.3458 ___C54A 26.357 C54B .049 C540 14.791 -~._._~---·-·-.096 .-c9iC1 _.~:042C54E-13.852 C54F C54H .085 C55A 0.169745 C55B 0.978561 IC55C0.043843 C56A -2.86578 C56B 1.08251 C56C -0.067495 C57A -10.6876 C57B 1.08079 C57C 1.64652 C58A -18.7299 C58B 3.34048 IC59A4.64239 C59B 1.96795 C59C 2.68763 C590 0.934046 C59E 1.46085 C59F 0.338783 C6A -0.757478 C6B 0.648296 C60A 9.49124 I...--•....•..-•..._-_..----.----_.-······C60a-.··O~023899 ...C60C·=10;6719 ···C61A ..1.7984 -------_._------~_._.··--·--C6-1B .....····-1--;-502·2~··_·--66-QA ·-4....1-3839 ---G62B ··_········_·····-1-..2269 C62C 0.659103 C620 0.841715 C62F 0.121036 iC63A-0.039147 C63B 0.129479 C64A 18.9595 C64B 0.20385 C64C 0.098751 C640 -0.00053 C64E -8.63463 C65A -2.09365 C65B 0.844682 C66A 4.37898 C66B 1.74487 C66C 5.7626 !..C660 -0.255419 .C66E -0.902879 C66F .0.:1.81534 C67A -0.007 C67B 0.552349 C67C -0.052675 ...·····C670 =0-;010381 .··C68A 26.1807 ··C68B ....0.040408 )C68C -27.4533 C680 0.000131 C69A -2.01416 C69B 0.662754 C7A 0.908821 C7B 0.209675 C70A 4.54932 C70B 0.709893 C70C 1.30633 1C7001.17991 C70E 0.033177 C70F 0.193705 C71A -17.0365 C71B 0.06144 C71C 0.099012 C710 -0.000253 C71E 2.407734E-05 C72A 5.88549 C72B 0.02392 C72C -0.00475 C720 0.004886 j B-2 J Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 [1 C73A -3.40732 C73B 0.975722 C74A 4.37324 i i C74B 2.18954 C74C 1.08894 C74D 2.98271I. C74F 0.429727 C75A -2.29685 C75B 0.992615 C76A -17.9348 C76B 0.131153 C76C 0.023213 C76D 0.044384 C76E -0.088811 C77A -2.28187 C77B 0.859508 C78A 4.34579 C78B 0.71098 C78C 1.69549 C78D 0.144154 C78E 0.586829 C78F 0.083435 C79A 3.8396 C79B 0.604405 C79D 0.960814 C79E -0.91324 C79F -0.034216 C8A 1.14384 C8B 0.455656 C80A -48.9126 C80B 0.000237 C80C -18.3501 C81A -3.62316 C81B 0.984746 C82A 3.9719 C82B 1.84677 C82C 0.772129 C82D 0.6003 C82F 0.244149 C83A -11.3818 C83C 0.149699 C83D 0.018428 C83E 4.356817E-05 C84A -34.8153 C84B 0.069629 C84C -0.076037 C84D 8.480865E-05 C85A -2.24398 C85B 0.998891 C86A 3.78055 C86B 1.30523 C86C 2.80068 C86D -0.261595 C86E 2.17424 C86F 0.294562 C87A -2.3839 C87B 0.990857 C88A 3.90497 C88B 0.5569 C88C 9.24559 II C88D -0.185504 C88E 0.235023 C88F 0.280157 C88G 4.46196 C89A 4.36947 C89B 1.025 C9A -0.394295 C9B 0.553834 C9C -0.684496 I C90A 4.52937 C90B 12.2905 C91A -5.36404 C91B 1.24213 C92A 4.3122 C92B 2.34831 1 C92C -0.262528 C92D -0.07913 C92F 0.286098 C93A -2.52615 C93B 0.965943 C94A -2.81492 C94B 1.01315 C96A -2.89633 C96B 1.11355 C97A -4.63823 C97B 1.26652 C98A -1.02656 C98B 0.83204 C99A -1.31799 C99B 0.817804 EXANNU 800.EXCAPIMP 0.1432 EXCAPOLD 1000. EXEL1 1.EXEL2 1.EXEL3 1. EXEL4 O.EXEL5 O.EXEL6 O. EXLIM82 2500.EXOMCOST 0.15 EXOPSIMP 7.678 EXPF2 0.162 EXPF3 0.31 EXRLOP6 O. EXRLOP7 O.EXRLOP8 O.EXRL1 O. EXRL2 O.EXRL3 O.EXRL4 O. EXRL40P O.EXRL5 1.FERT10 0.0043 FERT11 O.FERT4 0.0004 FERT5 0.0516 FERT6 0.1436 FERT7 0.12 FERT8 0.0697 FERT9 0.0223 G1 O.G10 0.8 G11 0.8 G12 0.8 G13 0.8 G14 0.8 G15 1.G2 0.75 G3 0.8 G4 0.8 G5 0.8 G6 0.8 G7 0.8 G8 0.8 G9 0.8 HHRF10 0.216 HHRFll 0.224 !I HHRF12 0.223 HHRF13 0.262 HHRF14 0.32 HHRF15 0.466 HHRF4 0.009 HHRF5 0.036 HHRF6 0.201 HHRF7 0.234 HHRF8 0.237 HHRF9 0.215 HHRM10 0.914 HHRM11 0.943 HHRM12 0.931 HHRM13 0.923 HHRM14 0.922 B-3 Institute of Social '/ and Economic Research MAP Documentation 1December1984,Model A85.1 HHRM15 0.884 HHRM4 0.001 HHRMS 0.063 fHHRM60.56 HHRM7 0.742 HHRM8 0.836 HHRM9 0.905 MDPF1 1.013 MDPF10 1.121 MDPF11 0.253 MDPF12 0.253 MDPF13 0.109 IMDPF140.036 MDPF15 0.036 MDPF2 2.424 MDPF3 3.834 MDPF4 2.749 MDPF5 1.881 MDPF6 4.088 MDPF7 2.713 MDPF8 2.605 .\MDPF9 1.358 MDPM1 0.796 MDPM10 O. MDPM11 O.MDPM12 O.MJ?PM13 O. MDPM14 O.MDPM15 O.MDPM2 2.894 MDPM3 3.871 MDPM4 2.894 MDPMS 1.302 .\MDPM6 O~MDPM7 0.036 MDPM8 O. MDPM9 O.MDTOT 25.131 MF1 0.01 MF10 0.026 MF11 0.015 MF12 0.003 ~lMF130.006 MF14 0.003 MF15 0.001 MF2 0.04 MF3 0.054 MF4 0.022 MF5 0.026 MF6 0.096 MF7 0.076 jMF80.064 MF9 0.029 MHHF10 0.015 MHHF11 0.006 MHHF12 0.008 MHHF13 0.002 MHHF14 0.002 MHHF15 0.012 MHHF5 0.006 MHHF6 0.068 MHHF7 0.102 MHHF8 0.039 -/ MHHF9 0.028 MHHM10 0.794 MHHM11 0.206 \ MHHM12 0.119 MHHM13 0.038 MHHM14 0.014 MHHM15 0.006 MHHM5 0.074 MHHM6 2.165 ~lMHHM73.44 MHHM8 2.802 MHHM9 1.863 ··-----MILF1·.....-0..'7.32 ._.-..-MILE10 ........0.•816 .........-....MILE11 ..0..12 MILF12 0.125 MILF13 0.043 MILF14 0.019 1MILF150.057 MILF2 2.854 MILF3 2:727 MILF4 1.718 MtLF5 1.279 MILF6 3.291 MILF7 3.254 MILF8 2.379 MILF9 1.001 IMILM10.727 MILM10 0.777 MILM11 0.178 MILM12 0.125 MILM13 0.038 MILM14 0.019 MILM15 0.015 MILM2 2.607 MILM3 2.947 MILM4 1.867 MILMS 2.481 MILM6 7.219 !---_...__.,--_."._---------_..•"--,~.._------.,..,_.--1.846MILM74.262 MILM8 2.931 MILM9._-_._-----MILRAT ·....·-1-.-..---------~1-·..------o-;-<n--·-------·MMrO-...----,'-0-:0-35- MM11 0.017 MM12 0.003 MM13 0.008 IMM140.003 MM15 0.001 MM2 0.04 MM3 0.054 MM4 0.022 MM5 0.038 MM6 0.079 MM7 0.099 MM8 0.079 .JMM90.041 NFERT10 0.0131 NFERTll O. NFERT4 0.0003 NFERT5 0.-1083 NFERT6 0.2381 NFERT7 0.1857 NFERT8 0.1188 NFERT9 0.0484 lilHfIRF10 0.227 NHHRF11 0.267 NHHRF12 0;267 iNHHRF130.297 NHHRF14 0.33 NHHRF15 0.503 NHHRF4 O.NHHRF5 0.026 NHHRF6 0.127 NHHRF7 0.188 NHHRF8 0.219 NHHRF9 0.227 INHHRM100.807 NHHRM11 0.864 NHHRM12 0.864 NHHRM13 0.893 NHHRM14 0.925 NHHRM15 0.888 NHHRM4 0.003 NHHRMS 0.025 NHHRM6 0.257 _!NHHRM7 0.539 NHHRM8 0.691 NHHRM9 0.807 B-4 j .-_.-- Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 NMF1 O.NMF10 O.NMFll O. NMF12 O.NMF13 O.NMF14 O. NMF15 O.NMF2 O.NMF3 O. NMF4 O.NMF5 O.NMF6 O. NMF7 O.NMF8 O.NMF9 O. NMM1 O.NMM10 O.NMM11 O. NMM12 O.NMM13 O.NMM14 O. NMM15 O.NMM2 O.NHM3 O. NMM4 O.NMM5 O.NMM6 O. NMM7 O.NMM8 O.NMM9 O. NPGQF1 O.NPGQF10 0.0029 NPGQFll 0.0092 NPGQF12 0.0112 NPGQF13 0.0128 NPGQF14 0.0103 NPGQF15 0.051 NPGQF2 0.0026 NPGQF3 0.005.9 NPGQF4 0.0055 NPGQF5 0.024 NPGQF6 0.0284 NPGQF7 0.0118 NPGQF8 0.0092 NPGQF9 0.0057 NPGQM1 O.NPGQM10 0.0288 NPGQMll 0.0258 NPGQM12 0.0181 NPGQM13 0.0233 NPGQM14 0.035 NPGQM15 0.0417 NPGQM2 0.0041 NPGQM3 0.0058 NPGQM4 0.0053 NPGQMS 0.0376 NPGQM6 0.0692 NPGQM7 0.0405 NPGQM8 0.0314 NPGQM9 0.0224 NRCF10 -0.002 NRCFll -0.035 NRCF12 -0.035 NRCF13 -0.028 NRCF14 -0.061 NRCF15 0.033 NRCF4 O.NRCF5 O.NRCF6 0.064 NRCF7 0.072 NRCF8 0.028 NRCF9 -0.002 NRCM10 0.12 NRCM11 0.076 NRCM12 0.076 NRCM13 0.016 NRCM14 -0.016 NRCM15 0.05 NRCM4 O.NRCMS O.NRCM6 0.108 NRCM7 0.187 NRCM8 0.186 NRCM9 0.12 NSEXDIV 0.513 NSF1 0.99891 NSF10 0.99366 NSF11 0.99733 NSF12 0.9871 NSF13 0.987 NSF14 0.984 NSF15 0.9689 NSF2 0.99891 NSF3 0.99945 NSF4 0.99972 NSF5 0.99684 NSF6 0.9971 NSF7 0.99639 NSF8 0.99611 NSF9 0.99558 NSM1 0.99864 NSM10 0.99018 NSM11 0.99413 NSM12 0.9892 NSM13 0.9788 NSM14 0.9665 NSM15 0.9368 NSM2 0.99864 NSM3 0.99922 NSM4 0.99868 NSMS 0.9933 NSM6 0.99 NSM7 0.9914 NSM8 0.99566 NSM9 0.9899 NSURINFF 1.NSURINFM 1. NTP 40.OEMF1 -0.1077 OEMF10 -0.0726 OEMFll -0.0449 OEMF12 -0.0709 OEMF13 -0.0441 OEMF14 -0.096 OEMF15 -0.0141 OEMF2 -0.1077 OEMF3 -0.1076 OEMF4 -0.0517 OEMF5 -0.051 OEMF6 -0.0452 OEMF7 -0.0879 OEMF8 -0.0742 OEMF9 -0.0656 OEMM1 -0.1017 OEMM10 -0.0638 OEMM11 -0.0326 OEMM12 -0.0561 OEMM13 -0.0507 I OEMM14 -0.0178 OEMM15 -0.0178 OEMM2 -0.1017 I OEMM3 -0.1037 OEMM4 -0.0479 OEMMS -0.0498 OE!R16 0.0533 OEUM7 0.0998 OEMM8 O.0977 I OEMM9 -0.0935 PADJ 1.5 PAD1 0.7 J PAD2 0.082 PARLVFV 0.919 PARNONGF 0.2 B-5 ! I I j l .1 I 1 ·..i J i 1 ! I 1 I ,::l j ..~ 0.1 1. 0.9 0.922 385 0.005 0.1 0.02 -4.75 0.4 5473. O. 1. 0.009 0.097 -0.008 0.01 0.009 0.054 -0.195 0.022 0.02 0.07 0.518 0.99726 0.9897 0.99993 0.9995 0.99896 0.99501 0.97938 0.99986 0.99762 0.99812 30~ PCINDA PCNCSV1 PCWS1 PC12N PDRPIBAS PERNA2 PESLTC PNTGR PTOURB PTOURS PWRBASE P3 P6 RCF12 RCF15 RCF6 RCF9 RCM12 ..~GH15 RCM6 RCM9 RORBOND RORNC SEXDIV SF11 ...SF1~ SF3 SF6 SF9 SM11 SM14 SM3 SM6 SM9 "TP Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984.Model A85.1 B-6 2.500000E-05 0.5 O. 1.01545 633.398 O. 0.4 O. O. 1. 0.02 O. 1. 0.008 -0.051 O. 0.01 -0.003 ,...0.013 O. 0.041 0.08 0.02 0.01 0.99829 ~~0_.~9_9.2.11 0.99933 0.99958 0.99923 0.996 0.98l08 0.99913 0.99864 0.99746 "'L PBTRATE PCNCSV PCNC4 PCYNA1 PDCONBAS PERNA1 PESLT PIDIST PRINT2 PTOURE PTRTS P2 P5 RCF11 RCF14 RCF5 RCF8 RCM11 RCM14 RCMS RCM8 RORANGRO RORDISK RORPPF SF10 .~SF.13~ SF2 SF5 SF8 SM10 SM13 SM2 SMS SM8 SURINFM 0.13 0.65 0.25 1.3 0.833 0.625 1. 0.97 9.443 0.4 0.2 O. 1. 0.009 0.007 O. 0.026 0.013 -0.·014 O. -0.016 0.02 0.03 O. 0.99933 ····~--O-.-99646 0.9659 0.99992 0.99935 0.99913 0.99224 0.93795 0.99957 ....................Q...~~748 t'lyn.,T"'""'"1. PBLTBL PCIVPY PCNCWS PCWS2 PC12RN PECIG PERNA3 PFISH1 POPMGQ PTOURD PTOURT P1 P4 RCF10 RCF13 RCF4 RCF7 RCM10 ···RCM13 RCM4 RCM7 ROR RORCPDEP RORPDF SF1 .-SF'f-2·· SF15 SF4 SF7 SM1 SM12 SM15 SM4 ......SMI .. Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A8S.I APPENDIX C ISER MAP ALASKA ECONOMIC MODEL: STOCHASTIC EQUATIONS This appendix shows the coefficients and regression statistics for each stochastic equation in the economic and fiscal modules of the ISER MAP Alaska Economic Model (version A8S.I). Each equation is first printed,followed by the sununary statistics and,finally,the coefficient values.Abbreviations have the following notations. CONn Condition number of x matrix (for monitoring least squares solution algorithm) CRSQ Corrected R squared I Ilj DFFITS DW(i) ESTIMATE F(ilj) MAX:HAT NOB NOVAR PROB>£T£ RANGE RSQ RSTUDENT SER SSR ST ER T-STAT Regression diagnostic:standardized change in fit when one observation is removed. Durbin Watsin test Value of coefficient F test Regression diagnostic:maximum diagonal of the projection matrix of X in OLS Number of observations Number of variables Significance level for coefficient Range of observations R squared Regression diagnostic:"studentized"residual when one observation is removed Standard error of regression Sum of squared residuals Standard error of coefficient T Statistic C-I 0-2 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A8S.1 ,i j I 1 ) ) I I I I j ..1 \ ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES MODEL NAME:A85.1 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 4:PDRATIO =PDRATIO(-1)+C67A*(l+G.EMSP**0.5)+C67B*(EMCNX1/EM98(-1»+ C67C*D80+C67D*(l+G.EMSP**0.5)*D68.71 NOB =21 NOVAR =4 RANGE:1962 TO 1982 RSQ =0.844 CRSQ =0.816 F(4/17)=NA PROB>F =NA SER =0.011 SSR =0.002 DW(O)=2.371 COND =2.142 MAX:HAT =1. RSTUDENT =NA DFFITS =NA COEF ESTIMATE STER TSTAT PROB>£T£ C67A -0.009 0.002 -3.527 0.003 C67B 0.552 0.091 6.064 O. C67C -0.053 0.011 -4.759 O. C67D -0.01 0.005 -2.158 0.046 ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES MODEL NAME:A85.1 7:PDCON =C107A+C107B*WRCNNP NOB =22 NOVAR =2 RANGE:1961 TO 1982 RSQ =0.942 CRSQ =0.939 F(1I20)=325.651 PROB>F =O.SER =45.949 SSR =42225.8 DW(O)=0.545 COND =4.504 MAX:HAT =0.232 RSTUDENT =4.081 DFFITS =1.314 COEF ESTIMATE STER TSTAT PROB>£T£ C107A -55.865 23.149 -2.413 0.026 C107B 0.016 0.001 18.046 O. C-3 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES MODEL NAME:A85.1 28:LOG(FAGI)=C21A+C21B*LOG(PI8)+C21C*LOG(EMCNX1+EMP9) ,J I I I ,1 )1961 TO 1976 =3741.28 0.01 0.485 RANGE: F(2113) SSR = MAX:HAT = 0.998 0.027 72.633 -2.347 NOVAR =3 0.998CRSQ = O.SER = 1.552 COND = 2.703 DFFITS = NOB =16 RSQ = PROB>F = DW(O)= RSTUDENT = COEF ESTIMATE STER TSTAT PROB>£T£ C21A C21B C21C 0.363 0.93 0.042 0.205 0.031 0.021 1.768 30.018 2.013 0.101 O. 0.065 MODEL NAME:A85.1 ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES 1 j j ,} 1 ! 1 'j ] j ,.\ O. .0. PROB>£T£TSTAT -10.283 .92.158 ... RANGE:1961 TO 1980 (t.~~tL .!'t!/:lJ~L:::..8493.05 _..._'.. 0.038 SSR =0.02620.595 MAX:HAT ="""-0:17 6 _._--_. 0.634 C-4 STER 0.087 0.012 ESTIMATE -0.898 1.083 NOVAR =2 ............Q.·22~.c::K~Q.:::.. O.SER = 2.418 COND = 1.796 DFFITS = C22A C22B COEF 29:LOG(FAGII)=C22A+C22B*LOG(PI) NOB =20 :R~:'Q..::: PROB>F = DW(O)= RSTUDENT = Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES MODEL NAME:A85.1 32:AEX*1000 =C10A+C10B*POPC+C10C*(EMCNX1+EMP9) NOB =16 NOVAR =3 RANGE:1961 TO 1976 RSQ =0.972 CRSQ =0.967 F(2113)=223.24 PROB>F =O.SER =15.989 SSR =3323.27 DW(O)=2.127 COND =20.077 MAX:HAT =0.54 RSTUDENT =2.299 DFFITS =1.83 (j COEF ESTIMATE STER TSTAT PROB>£T£ [I C10A 23.491 32.863 0.715 0.487 C10B 0.861 0.137 6.308 O. C10C 7.491 1.233 6.077 O. II ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES MODEL NAME:A85.1 33:ATT =C28A+C28B*(EM99-EMGM)+C28C*EMCNX1 NOB =19 NOVAR =3 RANGE:1961 TO 1979 RSQ =0.995 CRSQ =0.994 F(2116)=1518.35 PROB>F =O.SER =4.57 SSR =334.102 DW(O)=2.806 COND =7.273 MAX:HAT =0.524 RSTUDENT =-3.774 DFFITS =3.508 IJ COEF ESTIMATE STER TSTAT PROB>£T£ C28A 80.187 3.35 23.935 O. I!C28B 1.092 0.031 35.564 O. C28C 3.15 0.278 11.343 O. C-5 MODEL NAME:A85.1 MODEL NAME:A85.1 ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES 1 I j I J ] 'j I J ) J ] 1 ] J I .J j rC-6 RANGE:1961 TO 1976--·~-_·_------(r:-96-9~(-171-4-r·---;;--~·_----·4-6-9-:-8b-3-.---------"--..- ----..----- 0.098 SSR =0.136 6.202 MAX:HAT =0.367 0.964 =2 -0.971 CRSQ = O.SER = 1.575 COND = 3.377 DFFITS = ESTIMATE STER TSTAT PROB>£T£ -3.45f 0.078 "'44.()lia O. 1.199 0.055 21.676 O. C24.A. C24B COEF Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 NOB =16 NOVAR =4 RANGE:1961 TO 1976 RSQ =0.945 CRSQ =0.931 F(3/12)=68.169 PROB>F =O.SER =0.168 SSR =0.339 DW(O)=1.499 COND =9.205 MAX:HAT =1 • RSTUDENT =....2.699 DFFITS =-6.217 COEF ESTIMATE STER TSTAT PROB>£T£ C23A -2.757 0.186 -14.85 O. C23B 1.342 0.106 12.684 O. C23C 0.93 0.174 5.348 O. C23D 0.431 0.175 2.459 0.03 38:LOG(RTISCA1)=C24A-TXBASE+C24B*(1-TXRT)*LOG(ATI.TT) 34:LOG(ATD/ATT)=C23A+C23B*LOG(AGI/ATT)+C23C*D69+C23D*D72 NOB =16 ~-_.__.._----_._-"RSQ = PROB>F = DW(O)= RSTUDENT = Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES MODEL NAME:A85.1 39:LOG(RTISCA2)=C24A+C24B*LOG(ATI.TT) NOB =16 NOVAR =2 RANGE:1961 TO 1976 RSQ =0.971 CRSQ =0.969 F(1I14)=469.863 PROB>F =O.SER =0.098 SSR =0.136 DW(O)=1.575 COND =6.202 MAX:HAT =0.367 RSTUDENT =3.377 DFFITS =0.964 COEF ESTIMATE STER TSTAT PROB>£T£ C24A -3.451 0.078 -44.048 O. C24B 1.199 0.055 21.676 O. ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES MODEL NAME:A85.1 43:RTIS =IF YR EQ 1980 THEN 0 ELSE C25A*RTISC(-1)+C25B*RTISC C-7 MODEL NAME:A85.1 ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES 45:LOG (RTPIF/ATT)=C26A+C26B*LOG(FAGII/ATT+TCRED/1000/ATT+RTISLOS/ATT)+ C26C*D61.68*LOG(FAGII/ATT+TCRED/1000/ATT+RTISLOS/ATT) COEF ESTIMATE STER TSTAT PROB>£T£ C26A -1.769 0.08 .......22.066····O. C26B 1.004 0.038 26.454 O. C26C -0.119 0.031 -3.839 0.001 I ] I I I j 1 J J ) 1 I I I ! ; 1 J I I 0.258 O. O. PROB>£T£ 1.167. 11.595 25.786 TSTAT C-8 RANGE:1961 TO 1979 0.993 F(2/16)=1225.39 -~-"'---'-"--'-'--------'~--------'-"""-'--------~-"~'---~---'--------. 0.05 SSR =0.04 ·····14.471 MAX:HAT =----0-:-2-94-···· 0.875 STER 2.86 0.001 0.032 3.337 0.01 0.828 ESTIMATECOEF C105A C105B C105C Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES MODEL NAME:A85.1 NOB =22 NOVAR =3 RANGE:1961 TO 1982 RSQ =0.984 CRSQ =0.982 F(2/19)=584.988 PROB>F =O.SER =7.909 SSR =1188.6 DW(O)=1.692 COND =3.405 MAX:HAT =0.459 RSTUDENT =3.859 DFFITS =-2.184 44:RTISCP =C105A+C105B*PI8+C105C*RTISC NOB =19 NOVAR =3 ........R~Q __:::_____._()·~~4 __CJi~9.:=_.. PROB>F =O.SER = DW(O)=1.573 COND = RSTUDENT =-1.892 DFFITS = i 1 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES MODEL NAME:A85.1 46:DPIRES =C27A+C27B*PI3+C27C*WSCNP NOB =22 NOVAR =3 RANGE:1961 TO 1982 RSQ =0.987 CRSQ =0.986 F(2119)=749.447 PROB>F =O.SER =2.597 SSR =128.164 DW(O)=1.362 COND =3.079 MAX:HAT =0.618 RSTUDENT =-3.946 DFFITS =-1.339 COEF ESTIMATE STER TSTAT PROB>£T£ C27A -6.174 0.903 -6.84 O. C27B 0.011 O.38.699 O. C27C -0.009 0.002 -3.955 O. ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES MODEL NAME:A85.1 47:RTCS1*100/PDRPI =C43A+C43E*D80+C43D*(EM97(-1)- EM97(-2»+C43B*EMCNX1(-1)+C43C*EM97 (-1) NOB =21 NOVAR =5 RANGE:1963 TO 1983 RSQ =0.967 CRSQ =0.959 F(4/16)=117.797 PROB>F =O.SER =0.835 SSR =11.143 DW(O)=2.068 COND =7.285 MAX:HAT =1. RSTUDENT =NA DFFITS =NA COEF ESTIMATE STER TSTAT PROB>£T£ C43A -2.045 0.529 -3.868 0.001 C43B 0.427 0.048 8.827 O. j C43C 0.065 0.005 14.068 O. C43D -0.053 0.027 -1.966 0.67 C43E -2.996 0.906 -3.307 0.004 j C-9 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES MODEL NAME:A85.1 49:BL =C39A+C39B*(XX98-XXP9) NOB =17 NOVAR =2 RANGE:1961 TO 1977 RSQ =0.976 CRSQ =0.975 F(l/15)=613.671 PROB>F =O.SER =1.226 SSR =22.537 .DW(O)=1.336 COND =6.724 MAX:HAT =0.31 RSTUDENT =-3.361 DFFITS =-2.253 50:LOG(GR)=C40A+C40B*LOG(XX98-XXP9) ~ 'J \~ i J 1 l I ,~! I j I j O. o. O. O. PROB>£T£ PROB>£T£ RANGE:1961 TO 1977 F(i/i5)=645.46 SSR =0.274 MAX:HAT =0.2ii TSTAT -6.728 24.772 TSTAT -16.22 25.406 0.976 0.135 52.368 ..-:J..•:J.,!!:3__.. C.....10 STER 0.858 0.118 STER 1.022 0.001 NOVAR =2 0.977 CRSQ = O.SER = 1.074 COND = 2.89.3 DFFITS = -6.873 0.016 ESTIMATE -13.915 2.99 ESTIMATE C40A C40B COEF COEF C39A C39B ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES MODEL NAME:A85.1 NOB =17 RSQ = PROB>F = DW(O)= .RSTUDENT.:::._.... Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES MODEL NAME:A85.1 53:LOG(RTBS2*10**3/BL(-1»=C29A+C29B*LOG(GTR(-1)*10**3/BL(-1» NOB =16 NOVAR =2 RANGE:1962 TO 1977 RSQ =0.88 CRSQ =0.872 F(l/14)=103.096 PROB>F =O.SER =0.149 SSR =0.312 DW(O)=1.504 COND =50.087 MAX:HAT =0.295 RSTUDENT =-3.925 DFFITS =-1.74 COEF ESTIMATE STER TSTAT PROB>£T£ C29A -3.768 0.934 -4.032 0.001 C29B 0.803 0.079 10.154 O. ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES MODEL NAME:A85.1 55:TPTV =C38A+C38B*POP NOB =19 NOVAR =2 RANGE:1961 TO 1979 RSQ =0.981 CRSQ =0.979 F(l/l7)=860.927 PROB>F =O.SER =9.58 SSR =1560.13 DW(O)=1.328 COND =10.487 MAX:HAT =0.19 RSTUDENT =2.31 DFFITS =0.959 COEF C38A C38B ESTIMATE -182.034 1.051 STER 11.629 0.036 TSTAT -15.654 29.342 C-11 PROB>£T£ O. O. Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES MODEL NAME:A85.1 56:LOG (AHG)=C37A+C37B*LOG(PR.PI) .1 .J 'I 1 NOVAR = 2 0.718 CRSQ = 0.001 SER = 1.574 COND = 4.75 DFFITS = RANGE:1966 F(1/9)= SSR = MAX:HAT = NOB =11 RSQ = PROB>F = DW(O)= RSTUDENT = COEF C37A C37B ESTIMATE -5.494 0.643 STER 1.08 0.134 0.686 0.085 84.224 3.659 TSTAT -5.089 4.783 TO 1976 22.876 0.065 .0.373 PROB>£T£ O. O. j -I \ ,I I ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES 58:LOG (RTMF)=C46A+C46B*LOG(THG) NOB =11 NOVAR = 2 RSQ =0.987 CRSQ= PROB>F =O.SER = .DW<.0}..=......0..858 COND=. .___....RS.T.uD.ENT_=~..=1.999 DFFITS =. RANGE:1966 TO 1976 0.985 F(1/9)=672.217 0.048 SSR =0.021 22 ..6.6.7-.MAX:HAT::::..O •.A98 . -1.079 f! 1 ..I .l ! COEF ESTIMATE STER TSTAT PROB>£T£ C46A C46B -1.823 0.907 0.164 -11.125 0.035 25.927 O. O.j I,I J ( I ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES MODEL NAME:A85.1 59:LOG(RTVS)=C47A+C47B*LOG(R.DPI8N(-1» Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 ] NOB =22 NOVAR =2 RANGE:1962 TO 1983 RSQ =0.977 CRSQ =0.976 F(1I20)=851.423 PROB>F =O.SER =0.134 SSR =0.358 DW(O)=:j 0.65 COND =30.031 MAX:HAT =0.157 RSTUDENT :2.764 DFFITS 0.834== COEF ESTIMATE STER TSTAT PROB>£T£ C47A -11.025 0.429 -25.726 O. C47B 1.839 0.063 29.179 O. ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES MODEL NAME:A85.1 60:LOG(RTAS)=C48A+C48B*LOG(R.DPI(-1» NOB =22 NOVAR =2 RANGE: RSQ =0.991 CRSQ =0.99 F(l/20) PROB>F =O.SER =0.043 SSR = DW(O)=1.197 COND =29.856 MAX:HAT RSTUDENT =-2.54 DFFITS =-0.863 1962 TO 1983 =2103.69 0.038 =0.159 COEF C48A C48B ESTIMATE -4.698 0.942 STER 0.138 0.021 TSTAT -33.935 45.866 C-13 PROB>£T£ O. O. MODEL NAME:A8s.1 ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A8s.1 NOB =19 NOVAR =2 RANGE:1962 TO 1980 RSQ =0.98 CRSQ =0.979 F(1/17)=832.882 PROB>F =O.SER =0.046 SSR =0.036 DW(O)=2.387 COND =31.864 MAX:HAT =0.173 RSTUDENT =3.206 DFFITS =1.022 .1 J I { ~1 ), I I 1 i o o PROB>£T£TSTAT -22.145 28.86 STER 0.167 0.025 -3.704 0.726 ESTIMATE C49A C49B COEF 61:LOG(RTCIS)=C49A+C49B*LOG(R.DPI(-1» ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES M0DE:I.-NAME-:A85.];...._. '1,I =IF YR GT 1980 THEN 0 ELSE CSOA+C50B*(EM99-EMGM) ESTIMATE ,) ! '.1 ! iPROB>£T£ RANGE:1962 TO 1980 F(2Il7)=NA SSR =0.21 MAX:HAT =0.175 TSTAT 0.996 0.111 5.617-O.74 2=·········~~.::~~~~.._..~.._........__:.::. STER NOVAR =2 CRSQ = SER = COND = DFFITS = 0.996 NA .291 -1.999 = COEF RSTUDENT = NOB =19 RSQ = PROB>F = 62:RTSS C50A C50B -0.314 0.015 0.074 0.001 -4.255 26.901 O. O. C-14 ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES MODEL NAME:A85.1 65:LOG(ROFAS)=C30A+C30B*LOG(TPTV(-1» Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 r NOB =19 RSQ = PROB>F = DW(O)= RSTUDENT = NOVAR =2 RANGE:1962 TO 1980 0.961 CRSQ =0.959 F(l/l7)=420.077 O.SER =0.106 SSR =0.191 1.102 COND =23.665 MAX:HAT =0.18 -2.611 DFFITS ';=-0.999 COEF C30A C30B ESTIMATE -4.097 1.191 STER 0.288 0.058 TSTAT -14.21 20.496 PROB>£T£ O. O. ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES MODEL NAME:A85.1 66:LOG(ROFOS)=C33A+C33B*LOG(PI3(-1» NOB =19 NOVAR =2 RANGE:1962 TO 1980 RSQ =0.989 CRSQ =0.988 F(1/17)=1518.98 PROB>F =o.SER =0.065 SSR =0.072 DW(O)=1.732 COND =22.566 MAX:HAT =0.208 RSTUDENT =-2.636 DFFITS =-1.107 COEF C33A C33B ESTIMATE -5.448 0.896 STER 0.169 0.023 TSTAT -32.281 38.974 C-15 PROB>£T£ O. O. Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 MODEL NAME:A85.1 ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES 1968 29.492 1.788 0.202 1962 TO 1964, 1963 TO 1983 =538.685 0.343 '--0-:16'9·- 0.032 O. PROB>£T£ PROB>£T£ RANGE: F(1/16)= SSR = MAX:HAT = TSTAT -2.351 5.431 TSTAT 0.626 0.334 20.962 0.874 STER STER 0.828 0.109 -1.946 0.592 NOVAR =2 0.648 CRSQ = O.SER = 0.933 COND = 2.405 DFFITS = ESTIMATE ESTIMATE COEF C35A C35B COEF ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES MODEL NAME:A85.1 87:LOG(RSFFS)=C58A+C58B*LOG(POP(-1» NOB =18 TO 1982 RSQ = PROB>F = DW(1)= RSTUDENT = 69:LOG(RMIS)=C35A+C35B*LOG(PI3(-1» NOB =21 NOVAR = 2 RANGE: RSQ =0.966 eRSQ=0.964 F(1/19) PROB>F =O.SER =0.134 SSR = .·····Dw(6Y,.,;i~2Ir·COND-;;··-··57~·069----·MAX:-HAT-=·-· .~~~--.·~-~·-~--_·_-'·~------·--·-Rst-OJ5ENT~-------=2-:--7"S-2-DFFITS-=-------------::;O:-7·6-2-----~--~~--·---·-·------..---------------.--..---- C58A C58B -18.73 3.34 0.836 0.144 -22.394 23.21 O.o. C-16 ,l f ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES MODEL NAME:A85.1 125:EXINREC =C17A+C17B*(EXOPS-RLT99)+C17C*D82 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentat10n December 1984,Model A85.1 II' NOB =12 NOVAR =3 RANGE:1971 TO 1982 RSQ =0.95 CRSQ =0.939 F(219)=85.997 PROB>F =O.SER =14.496 SSR =1-891.27 DW(O)=2.273 COND =5.09 MAX:HAT ='i 1. RSTUDENT =NA DFFITS =NA COEF ESTIMATE STER TSTAT PROB>£T£ ·C17A -10.98 9.714 -1.13 0.288 C17B 0.12 0.015 7.766 O. C17C 76.445 18.574 4.116 0.003 ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES MODEL NAME:A85.1 126:EXINRECB =C108A+C108B*EXINREC NOB =13 NOVAR =2 RANGE:1971 TO 1983 RSQ =0.847 CRSQ =0.833 F(1I11)=61.016 PROB>F =O.SER =14.79 SSR =2406.25 DW(O)=2.012 COND =2.784 MAX:HAT =0.396 RSTUDENT =8.416 DFFITS =6.812 COEF ESTIMATE STER TSTAT PROB>£T£ C108A -2.792 6.447 -0.433 0.673 C108B 0.479 0.061 7.811 O. C-17 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES MODEL NAME:A85.1 127:LOG(EXJUS4)=C20A+C20B*LOG(EXOPS) NOB =20 NOVAR =2 RANGE:1962 TO 1981 RSQ =0.995 CRSQ =0.995 F(1/18)=3726.93 PROB>F =O.SER·=0.071 SSR =0.092 DW(O)=1.138 COND =12.063 MAX:HAT =0.195 RSTUDENT =-2.599 DFFITS =-1.28 COEF ESTIMATE STER TSTAT PROB>£T£ C20A -2.683 0.097 -27.692 O. C20B 1.017 0.017 61.049 O. i (1 I I, /1 I ! ..~J j .1 MODEL-NAME:--A85-.1~ ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES 128:LOG(EXPPS4)=C91A+C91B*LOG(EXOPS) 1962 TO 1981 =1023.31 0.497 0.195 O.o. PROB>£T£TSTAT -23.761 31.989 C"..18 RANGE: 0.982 F(1I18) 0.166 SSR= 12.063 MAX:HAT =-=1:-017--- STER 0.226 0.039 -5.364 1.242 ESTIMATECOEF C91A C91B NOB =20 NOVAR =2 RSQ =0.983 CRSQ = PROB>F =O.SER = DW(O)=1.048 COND =_._._---_..~.------"._.-_....~-"-~.._----RSTUDENT =-'::2:Sn;-DFFITS-:;;- ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES MODEL NAME:A85.1 129:LOG(EXNRS4)=C93A+C93B*LOG(EXOPS) Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation .December 1984,Model A85.1 )1 , I NOB =20 NOVAR =2 RANGE:1962 TO 1981 RSQ =0.991 CRSQ =0.99 F(1/18)=1936.61 PROB>F =O.SER =0.094 SSR =0.159 DW(O)=0.807 COND =12.063 MAX:HAT =0.195 RSTUDENT =2.436 DFFITS =1.096 COEF ESTIMATE STER TSTAT PROB>£T£ C93A -2.526 0.128 -19.795 O. C93B 0.966 0.022 44.007 O. ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES MODEL NAME:A85.1 130:LOG(EXHES4)=C94A+C94B*LOG(EXOPS) NOB =20 NOVAR =2 RANGE:1962 TO 1981 RSQ =0.976 CRSQ =0.974 F(1I18)=719.323 PROB>F =O.SER =0.162 SSR =0.471 DW(O)=0.45 COND =12.063 MAX:HAT =0.195 RSTUDENT =1.932 DFFITS =0.775 COEF ESTIMATE STER TSTAT PROB>£T£ C94A -2.815 0.22 -12.817 O. C94B 1.013 0.038 26.82 O. C-19 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984.Model A85.1 ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES MODEL NAME:A85.1 131:LOG(EXSSS4)=C96A+C96B*LOG(EXOPS) NOB =20 NOVAR =2 RANGE:1962 TO 1981 RSQ =0.99 CRSQ =0.989 F(1I18)=1758.22 PROB>F =O.SER =0.114 SSR =0.233 DW(O)=1.072 CONn =12.063 MAX:HAT =0.195 RSTUDENT =-2.4 DFFITS =-0.966 COEF ESTIMATE STER TSTAT PROB>£T£ C96A -2.896 0.154 -18.759 o. C96B 1.114 0.027 41.931 o. ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES MODEL NAME:A85.1 132:LOG(EXEDS4)=C19A+C19B*LOG(EXOPS) NOB =20 NOVAR =2 RANGE:1962 TO 1981 RSQ =0.995 CRSQ =0.995 F(1I18)=3720.98 PROB>F =o.SER =0.073 SSR =0.096 DW(O)=1.115 COND =12.063 MAX:HAT =0.195 RSTUDENT =-3.981 DFFITS =-1.348 COEF ESTIMATE STER TSTAT PROB>£T£ C19A -1.183 0.099 -11.959 o. C19B 1.038 0.017 61.O. C-20 ( 1 '\'j 1 ,J I j I I I 1 ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES MODEL NAME:A85.1 133:LOG(EXCDS4)=C97A+C97B*LOG(EXOPS) Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 NOB =20 NOVAR =2 RANGE:1962 TO 1981 RSQ =0.981 CRSQ =0.98 F(l/18)=930.683 PROB>F =O.SER =0.178 SSR =0.569 DW(O)=1.496 COND =12.063 MAX:HAT =0.195 RSTUDENT =3.353 DFFITS =1.651 COEF ESTIMATE STER TSTAT PROB>£T£ C97A -4.638 0.241 -19.217 .0. C97B 1.267 0.042 30.507 O. ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES MODEL NAME:A85.1 134:LOG(EXTRS4)=C98A+C98B*LOG(EXOPS) NOB =20 NOVAR =2 RANGE:1962 TO 1981 RSQ =0.998 CRSQ =0.997 F(1I18)=7372.56 PROB>F =O.SER =0.041 SSR =0.031 DW(O)=1.375 COND =12.063 MAX:HAT =0.195 RSTUDENT =-1.884 DFFITS =-0.638 COEF ESTIMATE STER TSTAT PROB>£T£ C98A -1.027 0.056 -18.221 O. C98B 0.832 0.01 85.864 O. C-21 MODEL NAME:A85.1 135:LOG(EXGGS4)=C99A+C99B*LOG(EXOPS) 0.007 O. 1962 TO 1981 =101.318 21.32 0.763 PROB>£T£TSTAT 3.023 10.066 RANGE: 0.841 F(l/lS) 1.0S8 SSR = 1.96 MAX:HAT = =5.--t.-61--·---------- C.,...22 STER 0.301 0.021 0.909 0.21 NOVAR = 2 0.849 CRSQ = O.SER = 1.054 CONn = 3.174 DFF-rT-g-= ESTIMATE C7A C7B COEF Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES 152:EXPRCDS =C7A+C7B*EXCDSNT NOB =20 RSQ = PROB>F = DW(O)= RSTUOENT = NOB =20 NOVAR = 2 RANGE:1962 TO 1981 RSQ =0.916 CRSQ =0.912 F(l/18)=197.46 PROB>F =O.SER =0.249 SSR =1.117 DW(O)=1.734 COND =12.063 MAX:HAT =0.195 RSTUDENT =4.891 DFFITS =1.656 COEF ESTIMATE STER TSTAT PROB>£T£ C99A -1.318 0.338 -3.895 0.001 C99B 0.818 0.058 14.052 O. ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984.Model A85.1 ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES MODEL NAME:A85.1 153:EXPREDS1 =C1A+C1B*EXEDSNT+C1C*D61.75*EXEDSNT NOB =17 NOVAR =3 RANGE:1965 TO 1981 RSQ =0.981 CRSQ =0.979 F(2I14)=369.988 PROB>F =O.SER =1.534 SSR =32.945 DW(O)=1.8 COND =4.639 MAX:HAT =0.459 RSTUDENT =3.103 DFFITS =-1.374 COEF ESTIMATE STER TSTAT PROB>£T£ C1A 0.427 0.893 0.478 0.64 C1B 0.05 0.005 9.975 O. C1C 0.371 0.014 26.984 O. ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES MODEL NAME:A85.1 154:EXPRSSS =C2A+C2B*EXSSS RANGE:1962 TO 1981 0.977 F(1I18)=797.781 2.091 SSR =78.666 2.621 MAX:HAT =0.328 -2.463 NOB =20 NOVAR =2 RSQ =0.978 CRSQ = PROB>F =O.SER = DW(O)=0.744 COND = RSTUDENT =-3.526 DFFITS = COEF ESTIMATE STER C2A 1.509 0.702 C2B 0.274 0.01 TSTAT 2.151 28.245 C-23 PROB>£T£ 0.045 O. MODEL NAME:A85.1 MODELNAME:A85.L ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES j 1 j I J ! I I ( .1 I ( I I I \-I i I TO 1981 489.935 49.918 0.435 O. O. 0.652 O. PROB>£T£ PROB>£T£ Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 RANGE:1971 TO 1981 F(1/9)=276.16 SSR =425.92 MAX:RAT =0.366 5.351 22.134 TSTAT TSTAT -0.466 16.618 RANGE:1962 0.963 F(1I18)= 1.665 SSR = 2.371 MAX:RAT = =3~-694--------_·_--_·_--- 0.965 6.879 3.613 -0.809 STER 0.52 0.011 STER 4.034 0.04 2.782 0.246 -1.879 0.663 ESTIMATE ESTIMATE NOVAR =2 0.968 CRSQ = o.SER = 1.396 COND = -2.552 DFFITS = NOVAR =2 0.965 CRSQ = O.SER = 1.048 COHO = ·:':'4-'2mrDFjrfTS~·-. C32A C32B COEF C3A C3B 156:EXPRHES =C3A+C3B*EXHES COEF NOB =20 RSQ = PROB>F = DW(O)=-_._--_._--_..__.,_.~_.__.._.-- RSTUDENT = NOB =11 RSQ = PROB:>F = DW(O)= RSTUDENT = 155:EXPRUA =C32A+C32B*EXUA C-24 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES MODEL NAME:A85.1 157:EXPRNRS =C4A+C4B*EXNRS 1962 TO 1981 =4366.41 30.143 0.373 0.001 O. PROB>£T£ RANGE: F(I/18) SSR = MAX:HAT = TSTAT -3.884 66.079 0.996 1.294 2.571 0.943 NOB =20 NOVAR =2 RSQ =0.996 CRSQ = PROB>F =O.SER = DW(O)=0.745 COND = RSTUDENT =-2.317 DFFITS = COEF ESTIMATE STER C4A -1.663 0.428 C4B 0.672 0.01 I! ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES MODEL NAME:A85.1 158:EXPRPPS =C5A+C5B*EXPPS 1962 TO 1981 =3471.24 4.363 0.261 RANGE: F(I/18) SSR = MAX:HAT = 0.995 0.492 2.413 -1.909 NOVAR =2 0.995 CRSQ = O.SER = 1.508 COND = -7.039 DFFITS = NOB =20 RSQ = PROB>F = DW(O)= RSTUDENT = COEF ESTIMATE STER TSTAT PROB>£T£ C5A C5B 0.107 0.596 0.156 0.01 0.686 58.917 0.502 O. C-25 MODELNAME:A85.1 MODEL NAME:A85.1 ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES ( 1 ( ! J I I j ( I ] [ ·f ( I I j I ! 1962 TO 1981 =385.656 229.687 0.295 1962 TO 1981 =7683.64 19.763 0.294 0.368 O. 0.047 O. PROB>£T£ PROB>£T£ Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 RANGE: F(l/18) SSR = MAX:HAT = TSTAT TSTAT 0.924 19.638 -2.128 87.656 0.953 3.572 2.733 -1.067 RANGE: 0.998 F(1I18) 1.048 SSR = 2.664 MAX:HAT =..........T~-41Z---------.... STER STER 1.237 0.023 0.356 0.007 1.144 0.456 NOVAR =2 0.998 CRSQ =. O.SER = 0.621 COND = :r:oCfl DFFIT-g-;; ESTIMATE ESTIMATE -0.757 0.648 NOVAR =2 0.955 CRSQ = O.SER = 0.875 CONn = -3 .077 DFFITS = C6A C6B COEF COEF C8A C8B 160:EXPRJUS =C6A+C6B*EXJUS 159:EXPRGGS =C8A+C8B*EXGGS NOB =20 RSQ =., PROB>F :;:= DW(O)=:j RSTUDENT = NOB =20 RSQ = PROB>F = DW(O)= ....RSTUOENT';- ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES MODEL NAME:A8S.1 161:EXPRTRS =C9A+C9B*EXTRS+C9C*D61.64 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984.Model A8S.1 NOB =20 NOVAR =3 RANGE:1962 TO 1981 RSQ =0.999 CRSQ =0.998 F(2Il7)=6220.39 PROB>F =O.SER =0.97 SSR =16.004 DW(O)=0.895 COND =3.658 MAX:HAT =0.41 RSTUDENT =2.754 DFFITS =0.878 COEF ESTIMATE STER TSTAT PROB>£T£ C9A -0.394 0.426 -0.926 0.367 C9B 0.554 0.005 101.15 O. C9C -0.684 Q.667 -1.026 0.319 ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES MODEL NAME:A8S.1 164:LOG(WSGS)=C55A+CS5B*LOG(WSGSFY)+C55C*D75 NOB =16 .NOVAR =3 RANGE:1965 TO 1980 RSQ =0.998 CRSQ =0.998 F(2I13)=3104.13 PROB>F =O.SER =0.033 SSR =0.015 DW(O)=2.17 COND =15.491 MAX:HAT =1. RSTUDENT =2.415 DFFITS =196.83 COEF ESTIMATE STER TSTAT PROB>£T£ C55A 0.17 0.063 2.693 0.018 C55B 0.979 0.013 77 .392 O. C55C 0.044 0.03S 1.249 0.234 C-27 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES MODEL NAME:A85.1 179:XXVHY =C41A+C41B*(EXHYCAP+EXHYCAP(-1» 180:XXVNHY =C42A+C42B*(EXNHYCP(-1)+EXSPCAP(-1)+RLTMCAP(-1)- EXCAPFR(-2)+EXNHYCP+EXSPCAP+RLTMCAP-EXCAPFR(-1» NOB =11 NOVAR = 2 RANGE:1965 RSQ =0.87 CRSQ =0.855 F(l/9)= PROB>F =O.SER =3.553 SSR = -DW(0)-=------1-:9-37--COND-:;--3:-6-8°6--MAX:HAT - ..--RSTUDENT =----Z.-326---DFFITS =------0-;;-736----··- MODEL-NAME:_A85.1 ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES \ oj ! ! 1 I I \ ( ! ! TO 1975 60.201 113.646 -0:333- 1964 TO 1975 =37.088 340.691 0.451 0.423o. PROB>£T£ PROB>£T£ RANGE: F(1/10) SSR = MAX:HAT = TSTAT TSTAT -0.836 6.09 0.766 5.837 6.908 1.825 STER STER 5.942 0.043 NOVAR = 2 0.788 CRSQ = O.SER = 1.471 COND = 2.013 DFFITS = ESTIMATE ESTIMATE -4.965 0.261 COEF C41A C41B COEF NOB =12 RSQ = PROB:>F = DW(O)= RSTUDENT = C42A C42B 0.925 0.172 2.12 0.022 0.436 7.759 0.673 O. C..,..28 J I I J. Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES MODEL NAME:A85.1 220:LOG(LPTB1)=C57A+C57B*LOG(P.PI(-1»+C57C*LOG(POP(-1» NOB =20 RSQ = PROB>F = DW(O)= RSTUDENT = COEF C57A C57B C57C NOVAR =3 RANGE:1963 TO 1982 0.991 CRSQ =0.99 F(2117)=988.073 O.SER =0.091 SSR =0.142 0.928 COND =538.999 MAX:HAT =0.38 -2.571 DFFITS =1.055 ESTIMATE STER TSTAT PROB>£T£ -10.688 2.463 -4.339 O. 1.081 0.32 3.375 0.004 1.647 0.896 1.838 0.084 ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES MODEL NAME:A85.1 227:RLPT1 =C18A+C18D*D61.73+C18B*LPTB1(-1)+C18C*PTBP9(-1) NOB =19 RSQ = PROB>F = DW(O)= RSTUDENT = COEF C18A C18B C18C C18D NOVAR =4 RANGE:1964 TO 1982 0.997 CRSQ =0.996 F(3/15)=1698.2 O.SER =4.251 SSR =271.024 1.375 COND =11.197 MAX:HAT =0.607 -2.585 DFFITS =-1.788 ESTIMATE STER TSTAT PROB>£T£ 27.19 3.922 6.932 o. 0.012 0.001 14.857 O. 0.004 0.001 5.331 O. -21.156 3.264 -6.481 O. C-29 MODEL NAME:A85.1 MODEL NAME:..A85_.1 ( 1 ( 1 J I J 1 I I ! -( -! ( i I ! 1 '\ TO 1982 83.859 1.465 0.221 0.697 O. PROB>£T£TSTAT -0.396 9.157 RANGE:1962 0.806 F(1I19)= 0.278 SSR= 2.924 MAX:HAT = _.3;-3 r4-----'---- C,..,30 STER 0.099 0.014 -0.039 0.129 ESTIMATECOEF C63A C63B Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES NOB =21 NOVAR =2 RANGE:1962 TO 1982 RSQ =0.988 CRSQ =0.987 F(1/19)=1535.23 PROB>F =O.SER =0.079 SSR =0.118 DW(O)=1.694 COND =30.936 MAX:HAT =0.19 RSTUDENT =2.234 DFFITS =-0.859 COEF ESTIMATE STER TSTAT PROB>£T£ C31A -6.631 0.267 -24.86 O. C31B 1.213 0.031 39.182 O. 231:RLTVS4 =C63A+C63B*RTVS 229:LOG(RLOT*1000/POP(-1»=C31A+C31B*LOG(PI(-1)*1000/POP(-1» NOB =21 NOVAR =2 RSQ =0.815 CRSQ = PROB>F =O.SER = DW(O)=1.779 COND = -_.-RS'tUDENT =---7-:-368---DFFITS--= Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES MODEL NAME:A85.1 242:RLTEF4 =C36A+C36F*D81.00+D71.00*C36B+BIU*C36C+C36D*ADMSD NOB =20 RSQ = PROB>F = DW(O)= RSTUDENT = COEF C36A C36B C36C C36D C36F NOVAR =5 RANGE:1963 TO 1982 0.994 CRSQ =0.993 F(4/15)=658.896 O.SER =7.579 SSR =861.632 2.063 COND =35.506 MAX:HAT =0.523 4.28 DFFITS =4.481 ESTIMATE STER TSTAT PROB>£T£ -46.974 19.186 -2.448 0.027 -126.31 14.095 -8.962 O. 7.969 0.581 13.723 O. 1.067 0.305 3.501 0.003 93.45 9.487 9.851 O. RANGE:1965 TO 1982 0.88 F(1I16)=125.094 14.656 SSR =3436.97 3.33 MAX:HAT =0.339 0.812 II l) IJ ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES MODEL NAME:A85.1 269:ELED1 =C11A+C11B*PI3(-1) NOB =18 NOVAR =2 RSQ =0.887 CRSQ = PROB>F =O.SER = DW(O)=2.264 COND = RSTUDENT =-2.255 DFFITS = COEF ESTIMATE STER C11A -2.51 6.271 C11B 0.024 0.002 TSTAT -0.4 11.185 C-31 PROB>£T£ 0.694 O. MODEL NAME:A85.1 ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES 271:ELBD =C14A+C14C*D61.77*GOBONDL(-1)+C14B*GOBONDL(-1) Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 1 I \ j I l I 1 I 1970 TO 1982 =163.575 1307.81 0.488 0.748 O. 0.002 PROB>£T£ RANGE: F(2110) .SSR = MAX:HAT = 0.33 11.541 -4.232 TSTAT 0.964 11.436 6.317 -1.74 STER 10.096 0.014 0.027 NOVAR =3 CRSQ = SER= COND = DFFITS = 3.333 0.163 -0.114 ESTIMATE 0.97 O. 2.582 -3.611 C14A C14B C14C COEF NOB =13 RSQ =.! PROB:>F,.= .DW(O),~ .RSTUDENT = ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES 273:ELNED1*100/PDRPI =C16A+C16B*WEALTH+CI6C*(RLTRS+RLTT9+RLTMS)/PDRPI COEF ESTIMATE STER TSTAT PROB>£T£ C16A -70.404 13.236 -5.319 O. C16B 0~041 0.004 9.281 O. C16C 137.48 13.422 10.243 O. MODEL NAME:A85.1 NOB =18 NOVAR = 3 RANGE:1965 RSQ =0.969 CRSQ =0.964 F(2/15)= PROB>F =O.SER =10.389 SSR = ··Dt;,fr6r-,;.-----i-:396-CONl:r--;--12~-44-3---MAX:-HAT-= -RSTUDEN't =~--=4;117-DFFITS-=-----.;;1-.-4-28-·------~.--_.-------- C-32 TO 1982 231.851 1618.98 --0~796--- Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A8S.1 ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES MODEL NAME:A8S.1 278:ELEDCP =C1SA+C1SB*ELED RANGE:1962 F(1/19)= SSR = MAX:HAT = NOB =21 NOVAR =2 RSQ =0.873 CRSQ = PROB>F =O.SER = DW(O)=1.109 COND = RSTUDENT =3.683 DFFITS = COEF ESTIMATE STER C1SA -9.091 5.41 C15B 0.302 0.026 ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES MODEL NAME:A8S.1 0.866 16.045 2.723 1.61 TSTAT -1.68 11.431 TO 1982 130.675 4891.59 0.314 PROB>£T£ 0.109 O. 279:ELPERS =C12A+C12B*(EL99-ELEDCP-RLTMS-ELBD) NOB =18 NOVAR =2 RANGE:1965 TO 1982 RSQ =0.988 CRSQ =0.987 F(1I16)=1273.59 PROB>F =O.SER =16.274 SSR =4237.48 DW(O)=1.998 COND =2.862 MAX:HAT =0.367 RSTUDENT =6.012 DFFITS =2.276 COEF ESTIMATE STER TSTAT PROB>£T£ C12A 7.173 6.159 1.165 0.261 C12B 0.524 0.015 35.687 O. C-33 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES MODEL NAME:A85.1 295:PIDIR =C51A+C51B*(DPI+DPI(-I)+DPI(-2)+DPI(-3)+DPI(-4» NOB =18 NOVAR =2 RANGE:1965 TO 1982 RSQ =0.972 CRSQ =0.97 F(1I16)=548.391 PROB>F =O.SER =~.!40.02 SSR =25626.1 DW(O)0.499 COND ='..3.387 MAX:HAT 0.295== 2.547 DFFITS 'i 1.469RSTUDENT==: COEF ESTIMATE STER TSTAT PROB>£T£ C51A -80.449 17.367 -4.632 O. C51B 0.035 0.002 23.418 O. ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES MODEL-NAME:A85.1 :! .i ( ! .I l 1 .j I 296:PITRAN/PDRPI =C34A+C34B*POP+C34C*D61.72+EXTRNS/PDRPI NOB =21 RSQ = PROB>F = DW(O)= ·RSTUDENT:': COEF C34A C34B C34C NOVAR =3 RANGE:1961 TO 1981 0.94 CRSQ =0.934F(2117)=141.826 O.SER =0.133 SSR =0.317 0.69 COND =27.956 MAX:HAT =0.302 ....·-·5~391-DFFITS=·--3-;55---------------.----.- ESTIMATE STER TSTAT PROB>£T£ 0.286 0.381 0.752 0.462 0.003 0.001 2.836 0.011 -0.649 0.128 -5.077 O. C-34 1\ 1 ( l j i ( ! ( I Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES MODEL NAME:A85.1 298:PIOLI =C44A+C44D*D61.75+C44B*(WS98-WSCNP)+C44C*WSCNP(-1) NOB =22 RSQ = PROB>F = DW(O)= RSTUDENT = COEF C44A C44B C44C C44D NOVAR =4 RANGE:1961 TO 1982 0.995 CRSQ =0.994 F(3/18)=1176.52 O.SER =9.903 SSR =1765.28 1.983 COND =15.47 MAX:HAT =0.632 -2.993 DFFITS =-2.081 ESTIMATE STER TSTAT PROB>£T£ 10.228 15.827 0.646 0.526 0.067 0.003 20.421 O. 0.026 0.011 2.31 0.033 -37.511 12.543 -2.991 '0.008 ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES MODEL NAME:A85.1 299:PISSC =C106A+C106B*(WS98-WSCNP) 1961 TO 1982 =2930.77 1725.22 0.306 O. O. PROB>£T£ RANGE: F(1I20) SSR = MAX:HAT = TSTAT -4.852 54.136 0.993 9.288 2.973 -2.05 NOB =22 NOVAR =2 RSQ =0.993 CRSQ = PROB>F =O.SER = DW(O)=1.078 COND = RSTUDENT =-3.086 DFFITS = COEF ESTIMATE STER C106A -15.898 3.277 C106B 0.067 0.001 C-35 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES MODEL NAME:A85.1 300:PIPROl*100/PDRPI =C45A+C45B*EMPROl+C45C*D61.66+C45D*D79 NOB =20 NOVAR = 4 RANGE:1961 TO 1979,1981 RSQ =0.639 CRSQ=0.571 F(3/16)=9.442 PROB>F =0.001 SER=8.595 SSR =1182.01 DW(l)=0.364 CONn =10.076 MAX:HAT -1. RSTUDENT NA DFFITS NA 'i== COEF ESTIMATE STER TSTAT PROB>£T£ C45A 27.36 9.455 2.894 0.011 C45B 4.289 1.336 3.21 0.005 C45C 5.067 8.264 0.613 0.548 C45D -7.209 9.308 -0.774 0.45 MODEL NAME:A85.1 309:PIRADJ*100/PDRPI =CI03A+CI03B*EMCNX1+CI03C*EM97 NOB =22 NOVAR = 3 RANGE:1961 TO 1982 RSQ =0;985 CRSQ =0.984 F(2/19)=627.591 .PROB:>F-:·-..·O~-···-·-SER--=-....1-L961---SSR=-"··2718-.-4----·--------- ...--'-~------_..-DW·(-O~~-~-·------------·-,-~2.-1-5~~GQN,D-=-----·-------~---,-----5-.-9·05--!f_I\X-:-HAT--=-------~__-.-_0_.5.:1.9 .._ RSTUDENT =5.597 DFFITS =5.816 COEF ESTIMATE STER TSTAT PROB>£T£ CI03A -19.903 7.014 ~2.838 .J).Oll CI03B 15.911 0.62 25.673 O. CI03C 0.707 0.06 11.834 O. C-36 J 1 ( I I .l ;~l 1 1 1 1 1 ( j j I 1 ,I 1 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES MODEL NAME:A85.1 335:XXCN8 =C54A+C54B*R.DPI8N+C54H*R.DPI8X(1)+C54D*D65+C54E*D73+C5 4F* R.DPI8X(-1)+C54G*R.DPI8X NOB =21 NOVAR =7 RANGE:1962 TO 1982 RSQ =0.959 CRSQ =0.941 F(6/14)=54.506 PROB>F =O.SER =6.445 SSR =581.501 DW(O)=1.552 COND =7.287 MAX:HAT =1. RSTUDENT =NA DFFITS =NA COEF ESTIMATE STER TSTAT PROB>£T£ C54A 26.357 4.015 6.565 O. C54B 0.049 0.004 12.395 O. C54D 14.791 6.81 2.172 0.048 C54E -13.852 6.726 -2.059 0.059 C54F 0.096 0.027 3.578 0.003 C54G -0.042 0.034 -1.219 0.243 C54H 0.085 0.026 3.258 0.006 ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES MODEL NAME:A85.1 337:LOG (EMCN1)=C56A+C56C*D61.67+C56B*LOG(XXCN1) NOB =22 NOVAR =3 RANGE:1961 TO 1982 RSQ =0.998 CRSQ =0.998 F(2119)=4949.89 PROB>F =O.SER =0.019 SSR =0.007 DW(O)=1.221 COND =40.875 MAX:HAT =0.227 II RSTUDENT =-2.526 DFFITS =-0.87 Ii COEF ESTIMATE STER TSTAT PROB>£T£ C56A -2.866 0.078 -36.594 O. C56B 1.083 0.016 65.99 O. C56C -0.067 0.013 -5.34 O. C-37 MODEL NAME:A85.1 MODEL NAME:A85.1 ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES J '] ( I j ·1 ~l 1 1 j J ! ! ! I I 1 I .\ O. O. PROB>£T£TSTAT 36.799 21.859 STER 0.101 0.083 3.704 1.804 ESTIMATECOEF C52A C52B Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 NOB =22 NOVAR =6 RANGE:1961 TO 1982 RSQ =0.932 CRSQ =0.911 F(5/16)=44.136.-, PROB>F =O.SER =0.044 SSR =0.031 ';DW(O)=1.36 COND =5.906 MAX:HAT =0.71 RSTUDENT =-2.409 DFFITS =-1.358 COEF ESTIMATE STER TSTAT PROB>£T£ C59A 4.642 0.013 370.035 O. C59B 1.968 0.247 7.968 O. C59C 2.688 0.696 3.861 0.001 C59D 0.934 0.953 0.98 0.342 C59E 1.461 0.706 2.068 0.055 C59F .0.339 0.034 9.867 O. 342:LOG(WRCNNP/PDRPI)=C59A+C59F*D.80DEC6+C59B*LOG(WEUS/PDUSCPI)+C59C* LOG(1+EMCNRT)+C59D*LOG(1+EMCNRT(-1»+C59E*LOG(1+EMCNRT(-2» 347:LOG(XXP9)=C52A+C52B*LOG(EMP9) -~-~---~----'--"'~NOB-=~22--~-·----~---NOVAR~=--2---···--------RANGE-:----196-1-T0--l-98Q--~.....,...-.---,~ RSQ =0.96 CRSQ =0.958 F(1/20)=477.805 PROB>F =O.SER =0.257 SSR =1.325 DW(O)=0.834 COND =3.371 MAX:HAT =0.186 RSTUDENT =1.663 DFFITS =-0.617 I) Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES MODEL NAME:A85.1 348:LOG (WRP9/PDRPI)=C53A+C53F*D.80DEC6+C53D*D61.76+C53B* LOG(WEUS/PDUSCPI)+C53C*LOG(1+EMCNRT) NOB =22 NOVAR =5 RANGE:1961 TO 1982 RSQ =0.957 CRSQ =0.946 F(4/17)=93.531 PROB>F =O.SER =0.052 SSR =0.046 DW(O)=1.478 COND =6.162 MAX:HAT =0.502 RSTUDENT =2.525 DFFITS =1.197 COEF ESTIMATE STER TSTAT PROB>£T£ C53A 4.793 0.033 144.884 O. C53B 3.029 0.294 10.296 O. C53C 3.84 0.46 8.351 O. C53D -0.273 0.034 -8.065 O. C53F 0.346 0.053 6.48 O. ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES MODEL NAME:A85.1 350:XXMO =C60A+C60B*R.DPI8N+C60C*D61.77 NOB =22 NOVAR =3 RANGE:1961 TO 1982 RSQ =0.98 CRSQ =0.978 F(2119)=474.113 PROB>F =O.SER =2.066 SSR =81.109 DW(O)=1.058 COND =11.092 MAX:HAT =0.276 RSTUDENT =2.767 DFFITS =1.399 COEF ESTIMATE STER TSTAT PROB>£T£ C60A 9.491 2.379 3.99 O. C60B 0.024 0.001 16.499 O. C60C -10.672 1.457 -7.322 O. C-39 MODEL NAME:A85.1 ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES 1 1 ! I J J ,·1 1 ~j I ] 1 ! I .1 i 1 I ~\ 1961 TO 1982 =137.771 0.593 0.189 O. O. PROB>£T£TSTAT 7.177 11.738 RANGE: 0.867 F(1I20) 0.172 SSR = 13.575 MAX:HAT = -0;779--- C-40 STER 0.251 0.128 1.798 1.502 ESTIMATE C61A C61B COEF Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 352:LOG(XXMX2)=C61A+C61B*LOG(EMMX2) NOB =22 NOVAR =2 RANGE:1961 TO 1982 RSQ =0.991 CRSQ =0.99 F(1I20)=2118.98 PROB>F =O.SER =.0.045 SSR =0.04 DW(O)=1.063 COND =10.529 MAX:HAT =0.151 RSTUDENT =3.051 DFFITS =1.031 COEF ESTIMATE STER TSTAT PROB>£T£ C109A -1.922 0.051 -37.879 O. C109B 0.755 0.016 46.032 O. 351:LOG(EMMO)=C109A+C109B*LOG(XXMO) NOB =22 NOVAR =2 RSQ =0.873 CRSQ = PROB>F =o.SER = DW(O)=0.621 COND = -RSTUDENT-:.----;;;;;2;422-DFFITS [i, I Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES MODEL NAME:A85.1 355:LOG(WRM91/PDRPI)=C62A+C62F*D.80DEC6+C62B*LOG(WEUS/PDUSCPI)+ C62C*LOG(l+EMCNRT)+C62D*LOG(l+EMCNRT(-1» NOB =22 NOVAR =5 RANGE:1961 TO 1982 RSQ =0.725 CRSQ =0.661 F(4/17)=11.222 PROB>F =O.SER =0.043 SSR =0.031 DW(O)=1.472 COND =2.94 MAX:HAT =0.654 RSTUDENT =-1.755 DFFITS =1.009 COEF ESTIMATE STER TSTAT PROB>£T£ C62A 4.138 0.012 350.027 O. C62B 1.227 0.236 5.188 O. C62C 0.659 0.523 1.26 0.225 I J C62D 0.842 0.526 1.599 0.128]C62F 0.121 0.034 3.613 0.002 ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES MODEL NAME:A85.1 360:XXTNT =C64A+C64B*R.DPI8X+C64D*R.DPI8X*R.DPI8X(-1)+C64C*R.DPI8 N+ C64E*D71.73 NOB =21 NOVAR=5 RANGE:1962 TO 1982 RSQ =0.985 CRSQ =0.982 F(4/16)=268.93 PROB>F =O.SER =6.381 SSR =651.472 DW(O)=1.586 COND =6.443 MAX:HAT =0.908 RSTUDENT =-6.068 DFFITS =-3.999 COEF ESTIMATE STER TSTAT PROB>£T£ iJ C64A 18.96 3.822 4.961 O. C64B 0.204 0.032 6.401 O. .1 C64C 0.099 0.004 27.009 O• C64D -0.001 o.-3.685 0.002 C64E 8.635 4.038 2.139 0.048 C-41 MODEL NAME:A85.1 _MODEL __NAME:A85.1 ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES 1 ] .] 1 :1 J ·.-1 'j .] 1 ] 1 ! j -I 1 :1 I .1 1961 TO 1982 =67.919 0.035 0~691 RANGE: 0.941 F(5/16) 0.047 SSR = 9:121-MAX:HAT = .;;;2-;025-------- C--42 COEF ESTIMATE STER TSTAT PROB>£T£ C66A 4.379 0.039 113.198 O. C66B 1.745 0.263 6.623 O. C66C 5.763 0.672 8.577 o. C66D ....0.255 0.04 .....6.383 O. C66E -0.903 0.755 -1.195 0.249 C66F 0.182 0.054 3.345 0.004 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES 366:LOG(WRT9/PDRPI)=C66A+C66F*D.80DEC6+C66D*D61.76+C66B* LOG(WEUS/PDUSCPI)+C66C*LOG(1+EMCNRT)+C66E*LOG(1+EMCNRT(-1» 361:LOG(EMTNT)=C65A+C65B*LOG(XXTNT) NOB =21 NOVAR =2 RANGE:1962 TO 1982 RSQ =0.99 CRSQ =0.989 F(1/19)=1796.79 PROB>F =O.SER =0.036 SSR =0.025 DW(O)=1.761 COND =24.018 MAX:HAT =0.162 RSTUDENT =-3.639 DFFITS =-1.307 COEF ESTIMATE STER TSTAT PROB>£T£ C65A -2.094 0.094 -22.206 O. C65B 0.845 0.02 42.389 O. NOB =22 NOVAR = 6 RSQ =0.955 CRSQ = PROB>F =O.SER = DWf<j)-;;-1:797 -COND-:: -------------------RSTUDENT---==-------2-;-rlf9-DFFITS--=- I j Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES MODEL NAME:A85.1 368:XXCM =C68A+C68B*R.DPI8N(-1)+C68C*D61.74+C68D*WEALTH(-1)*POP(-1) NOB =18 RSQ = PROB>F = DW(O)= RSTUDENT = COEF C68A C68B C68C C68D NOVAR =4 RANGE:1965 TO 1982 0.97 CRSQ =0.964 F(3/14)=152.312 O.SER =11.038 SSR =1705.84 0.621 COND =52.359 MAX:HAT =0.554 3.057 DFFITS =1.862 ESTIMATE STER TSTAT PROB>£T£ 26.181 25.779 1.016 0.327 -0.04 0.052 -0.777 0.45 -27.453 13.412 -2.047 0.06 O.O.3.11 0.008 r I U ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES MODEL NAME:A85.1 369:LOG(EMCM)=C69A+C69B*LOG(XXCM) NOB =22 NOVAR =2 RANGE:1961 TO 1982 RSQ =0.968 CRSQ =0.967 F(1I20)=607.498 PROB>F =O.SER =0.065 SSR =0.083 DW(O)=0.667 COND =17.694 MAX:HAT =0.163 RSTUDENT =2.076 DFFITS =0.6 COEF ESTIMATE STER TSTAT PROB>£T£ C69A -2.014 0.122 -16.48 O. C69B 0.663 0.027 24.647 O. C-43 MODEL NAME:A85.1 MODEL NAME:A85.1 372:XXPU =C72A+C72B*R.DPI8N(-1)+C72C*R.DPI8X+C72D*R.DPI8N(-2) ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES I ] ,I ] i l J \ j -:1 I J ] 1 I '\ 'J ] I J -----RANGE-:---196-3-TO--198-2-------- 0.969 F(3/16)=201.927 1.975 SSR =62.423 45.001 MAX:HAT =0.612 2.073 C-44 COEF ESTIMATE STER TSTAT PROB>£T£ C72A 5.885 1.222 4.815 O. C72B 0.024 0.008 3.033 0.008 C72C -0.005 0.006 -0.736 0.472 C72D 0.005 0.008 0.621 0.543 ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 370:LOG(WRCM/PDRPI)=C70A+C70E*D61.70+C70F*D.80DEC6+C70B* LOG(WEUS/PDUSCPI)+C70C*LOG(1+EMCNRT(-2»+C70D*LOG(1+EMCNRT(-l» NOB =22 NOVAR = 6 RANGE:1961 TO 1982 RSQ =0.721 CRSQ =0.634 F(5/16)=8.265 PROB>F =0.001 SER =0.047 SSR =0.035 DW(O)=1.771 COND =6.192 MAX:HAT =0.657 RSTUDENT =2.426 DFFITS =-1.941 COEF ESTIMATE STER TSTAT PROB>£T£ C70A 4.549 0.028 161.794 O. C70B 0.71 0.342 2.075 0.054 C70C 1.306 0.586 2.228 0.041 C70D 1.18 0.601 1.964 0.067 C70E 0.033 0.033 1.014 0.326 C70F 0.194 0.054 3.615 0.002 -NOB--=-20----~---NOVAR'='4- RSQ =0.974 CRSQ = PROB>F =O.SER = DW(O)=1.868 COND = RSTUDENT =2.326 DFFITS = Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 'II. I I ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES MODEL NAME:A85.1 373:LOG(EMPU)=C73A+C73B*LOG(XXPU) 1961 TO 1982 =1755.53 0.037 0.226 O. O. PROB>£T£ RANGE: F(1I20) SSR = MAX:HAT = NOB =22 NOVAR =2 RSQ =0.989 CRSQ =0.988 PROB>F =O.SER =0.043 DW(O)=1.137 COND =17.295 RSTUDENT =3.416 DFFITS =0.749 COEF ESTIMATE STER TSTAT C73A -3.407 0.079 -43.084 C73B 0.976 0.023 41.899 ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES MODEL NAME:A85.1 374:LOG(WRPU/PDRPI)=C74A+C74F*D.80DEC6+C74B*LOG(WEUS/PDUSCPI)+ C74C*LOG(I+EMCNRT(-2»+C74D*LOG(I+EMCNRT(-I» NOB =22 NOVAR =5 RANGE:1961 TO 1982 RSQ =0.815 CRSQ =0.772 F(4/17)=18.744 PROB>F =O.SER =0.082 SSR =0.114 DW(O)=1.324 COND =2.991 MAX:HAT =0.655 RSTUDENT =3.179 DFFITS =-1.79 COEF ESTIMATE STER TSTAT PROB>£T£ lJ C74A 4.373 0.022 195.687 O. C74B 2.19 0.459 4.775 O. C74C 1.089 1.014 1.074 0.298 IJ C74D 2.983 0.999 2.987 0.008 C74F 0.43 0.064 6.727 O. C-45 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES MODEL NAME:A85.1 376:XXDW =C71A+C71B*R.DPI8N+C71C*R.DPI8X+C71D*R.DPI8X(-I)* R.DPI8X+C71E*WEALTH(-I)*POP(-I) NOB =18 NOVAR = 5 RANGE:1965 TO 1982 RSQ =0.99 CRSQ =0.987 F(4/13)=330.132 PROB>F =O.SER=4.128 SSR =221.53 DW(O)=1.759 COND =33.372 MAX:HAT =0.909 RSTUDENT =2.726 DFFITS =4.11 COEF ESTIMATE STER TSTAT PROB>£T£ C71A -17.036 3.176 -5.365 O. C71B 0.061 0.011 5.443 O. C71C 0.099 0.024 4.122 0.001 C71D -0.O.-20617 0.021 C71E O.00 20536 0.025 ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES MODEL NAME:A85.1 I ,I I I 1 1 ] 1 -l I 377:XXDRNT =C76A+C76B*R.DPI8N+C76C*R.DPI8X+C76D*R.DPI8N(-I)+ C76E*R.DPI8X(-I) ESTIMATE STER TSTAT PROB>£T£ -17.935 3.219 -5.571 O. 0.131 0.02 6.49 O. 0.023 0.023 0.991 0.336 0.044 0.022 2.059 0.056 -0.089 0.023 -3.891 0.001 0.994 5.392 49.573 2.747 --NOB-::-2i: RSQ = PROB>F = DW(O)= RSTUDENT = COEF C76A C76B C76C C76D C76E NOV-AR--=---5 00995 CRSQ = O.SER = 1.651 COND = -2.555 DFFITS = ~-RANGE-r-1-962~TO-I-982---··_··__·_·__·· F(4/16)=857.554 SSR =465.198 MAX:HAT =0.773 C-46 ) 1 ! I ,I ] i l ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES MODEL NAME:A85.1 378:LOG(EMDW)=C77A+C77B*LOG(XXDW) ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES MODEL NAME:A85.1 379:LOG(EMDRNT)=C75A+C75B*LOG(XXDRNT) Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 NOB =22 NOVAR =2 RANGE:1961 TO 1982 RSQ =0.998 CRSQ =0.998 F(l/20)=11839.1 PROB>F =O.SER =0.021 SSR =0.009 DW(O)=1.559 COND =20.077 MAX:HAT =0.163 RSTUDENT =-2.923 DFFITS =-0.89 COEF ESTIMATE STER TSTAT PROB>£T£ I,] C75A -2.297 0.045 -51.285 O. C75B 0.993 0.009 108.808 O. C-47 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES MODEL NAME:A85.1 381:LOG(WRDW/PDRPI)=C78A+C78F*D.80DEC6+C78B*LOG(WEUS/PDUSCPI)+ C78C*LOG(1+EMCNRT)+C78D*LOG(1+EMCNRT(-1»+C78E*LOG(1+EMCNRT(-2» NOB =22 NOVAR =6 RANGE:1961 TO 1982 RSQ =0.874 CRSQ =0.834 F(5/16)=22.127 PROB>F =O.SER =0.026 SSR =0.011 DW(O)=1.645 COND =5.906 MAX:HAT =0.71 RSTUDENT =3.448 DFFITS =2.64 COEF ESTIMATE STER TSTAT PROB>£T£ C78A 4.346 0.007 582.165 O. e78B 0.711 0.147 4.838 O. C78C 1.695 0.414 4.093 O. C78D 0.144 0.567 0.254 0.803 e78E 0.587 0.42 1.396 0.182 C78F 0.083 0.02 4.084 O. ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES MODEL NAME:A85.1 382:LOG (WRDR/PDRPI)=C79A+C79F*D.80DEC6+C79B*LOG(WEUS/PDUSCPI)+(+C79D)* .·····LOG (1+EMCNRT(;;:;1)}+C79E*LOG(1+EMCNRT(=2)J --. NOB =22 NOVAR =5 RANGE:1961 TO 1982 RSQ =0.764 CRSQ =0.709 F(4/17)=13.788 PROB>F =o.SER =0.026 SSR =0.011 DW(O)=2.147 COND =2.991 MAX:HAT =0.655 RSTUDENT =-4.889 DFFITS =3.64 COEF ESTIMATE STER TSTAT PROB>£T£ C79A 3.84 0.007 545.693 O. C79B 0.604 0.144 4.187 O. C79D 0.961 0.314 3.056 0.007 C79E -0.913 0.319 -2.861 0.011 C79F -0.034 0.02 -1.701 0.107 C-48 J 1 l \ JI, "I ! t 'I I '\ I I ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES MODEL NAME:A85.1 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 389:XXFI =C80A+C80C*D71.73+C80B*WEALTH(-1)*POP(-1) NOB =18 NOVAR =3 RANGE:1965 TO 1982 RSQ =0.984 CRSQ =0.982 F(2/15)=463.199 PROB>F =O.SER =14.695 SSR =3239.22 DW(O)=0.935 COND =5.849 MAX:HAT =0.335 RSTUDENT =3.366 DFFITS =1.454 !COEF ESTIMATE STER TSTAT PROB>£T£ C80A -48.913 10.118 -4.834 O. C80B O.O.29.177 O. C80C -18.35 9.535 -1.924 0.073 ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES "MODEL NAME:A85.1 390:LOG(EMFI)=C81A+C81B*LOG(XXFI) NOB =22 NOVAR =2 RANGE:1961 TO 1982 RSQ =0.996 CRSQ =0.996 F(1I20)=5342.82 PROB>F =O.SER =0.038 SSR =0.029 DW(O)=0.256 COND =16.726 MAX:HAT =0.153 RSTUDENT =-1.575 DFFITS =-0.612 COEF ESTIMATE STER TSTAT PROB>£T£ J C81A -3.623 0.068 -52.932 O. C81B 0.985 0.013 73.095 O. C-49 MODEL NAME:A85.1 ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES 393:XXS8NT =C84A+C84B*R.DPI8N+C84C*R.DPI8X(-1)+C84D*WEALTH(-1)*POP(-1) 1961 TO 1982 =37.818 0.018 0.654 RANGE: 0.875F(4/17) 0.032 SSR== 2.94 MA.X:HAT = 2.534 .·······--··RANGE:-1965T01981--c - ·0-.-99--··F-(-3-/-l-3-)--=---·-5-24-.8-1-9----·· 5.905 SSR =453.342 27.784 MA.X:HAT =.0.659 -1.636 C-50 NOVAR = 5 0.899CRSQ = O.SER = 1.492 COND = 3.538 DFFITS = ESTIMATE STER TSTAT PROB>£T£ 3.972 6.009 445.742 O. 1.847 0.178 10.361 O. 0.772 0.397 1.946 0.068 0.6 0.394 1.523 0.146 0.244 0.025 9.669 O. ESTIMATE STER TSTAT PROB>£T£ ....;34.815 5.308 -6~559 O. 0.07 0.015 4.499 o. -0.076 0.018 -4.15 0.001 O.O.6.989 O. ...----·...-NOVAR·==-·/4 ·-0-;992--CRSQ-=-----. O.SER = 1.682 COND = -4.983 DFFITS = COEF C82A C82B C82C C82D C82F COEF ·C84A C84B C84C C84D ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 391:LOG(WRFI/PDRPI)=C82A+C82F*D.80nEC6+C82B*LOG(WEUS/PDUSCPI)+C82D* LOG(1+EMCNRT)+C82C*LOG(1+EMCNRT(-1» MODEL NAME:A85.1 NOB =22 RSQ·= PROlhF = DW(O)= RSTUDENT = ··lifolr;;I7- ·RSQ·=·~·· PROB>F = DW(O)= RSTUDENT = Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES MODEL NAME:A85.1 394:XXSB =C83A+(+C83C)*R.DPI8X+C83D*R.DPI8X(-1)+C83E*WEALTH(-1)*POP(-l) NOB =18 RSQ = PROB>F = DW(O)= RSTUDENT = COEF C83A C83C C83D C83E NOVAR =4 RANGE:1965 TO 1982 0.949 CRSQ =0.938 F(3/14)=86.096 O.SER =7.087 SSR =703.126 1.128 COND =6.669 MAX:HAT =0.766 2.906 DFFITS =1.81 ESTIMATE STER TSTAT PROB>£T£ -11.382 4.719 -2.412 0.03 0.15 0.023 6.395 O. 0.018 0.025 0.739 0.472 O.O.10.48 O. I ] ,i ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES MODEL NAME:A85.1 395:LOG(EMS8NT)=C85A+C85B*LOG(XXS8NT) NOB =21 NOVAR =2 RANGE:1961 TO 1982 RSQ =0.999 CRSQ =0.999 F(1I19)=17300.2 PROB>F =O.SER =0.02 SSR =0.008 DW(O)=1.018 COND =16.139 MAX:HAT =0.154 RSTUDENT =-3.593 DFFITS =-.973 COEF ESTIMATE STER TSTAT PROB>£T£ C85A -2.244 0.035 -63.749 O. C85B 0.999 0.008 131.53 O. C-51 MODEL NAME:A85.1 ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES J 1.1 \ ,1 ,1 1 J ) 1 1 j } .,I ( ( 1961 TO 1982 =15.984 0.059..-O:n:-·----- O. -0.001 0.01 0.845 0.041 O. PROB>£T£TSTAT 218.036 3.824 2.911 --0.199 2.227 6.207 RANGE: 0.781F(5/16) 0.061 SSR = '5--~--'9-(j'6--'~-MAX-:-HAT = ..···T:6-0-2~---·-_·····_--_··-_...--_.._-_._....-....-..._- STER 0.017 0~341 0.962 1.317 0.976 0.047 NOVAR = 6 0.833 CRSQ = O.SER = ---_.,---~-,_.,------_._-_.--"-_....._.._-- 0.961 COND = 1.79 DFFITS=.._- ESTIMATE 3.781 ·1.305 2.801 ....0.262 2.174 0.295 C86A C86B C86C cS6b C86E C86F COEF Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 397:LOG(WRSNB/PDRPI)=C86A+C86F*D.80DEC6+C86B*LOG(WEUS/PDUSCPI)+ C86C*LOG(l+EMCNRT)+C86D*LOG(l+EMCNRT(-1»+C86E*LOG(l+EMCNRT(-2» MODEL NAME-:A8.5.1 NOB =22 NOVAR =2 RANGE:1961 TO 1982 RSQ =0.999 CRSQ =0.999 F(1/20)=18731.9 PROB>F =O.SER ::::0.025 SSR =0.013 DW(O)=0.558 COND =9.076 MAX:HAT =0.178 RSTUDENT =-1.959 DFFITS =-0.777 COEF ESTIMATE STER TSTAT PROB>£T£ C85A -2.384 0.025 -95.63 O. C85B 0.991 0.007 136.865 O. 396:LOG(EMSB)=C87A+C87B*LOG(XXSB) NOB =22 RSQ = PROB>F =- -•...•._.__..,.•..,_.__...,--,.....__._•...__.._.,--._--..- DW(O)= -RSTUDENT = C-52 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES MODEL NAME:A85.1 398:LOG(WRSB/PDRPI)=C88A+C88F*D.80DEC6+C88E*D61.70+C88B* LOG(WEUS/PDUSCPI)+C88C*LOG(1+EMCNRT)+C88D*LOG(1+EMCNRT(-1»+ C88G*LOG(1+EMCNRT(-2» NOB =22 NOVAR =7 RANGE:1961 TO 1982 )RSQ =0.94 CRSQ =0.916 F(6/15)=39.3 PROB>F =O.SER =0.065 SSR =0.062 DW(O)=1.813 COND =9.293 MAX:HAT =0.72 11 RSTUDENT =3.056 DFFITS =1.95 COEF ESTIMATE STER TSTAT PROB>£T£ C88A 3.905 0.049 79.201 O. C88B 0.557 0.5 1.113 0.283 C88C 9.246 1.243 7.437 O. C88D -0.186 1.48 -0.125 0.902 C88E 0.235 0.055 4.285 O. C88F 0.28 0.085 3.312 0.005 C88G 4.462 1.201 3.714 0.002 ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES MODEL NAME:A85.1 407:LOG(XXGF)=C101A+C101B*LOG(EMGF) 1961 TO 1982 =62.554 0.011 0.165 O. O. PROB>£T£ RANGE: F(1/20) SSR = MAX:HAT = NOB =22 NOVAR =2 RSQ =0.758 CRSQ =0.746 PROB>F =O.SER =0.023 DW(O)=0.772 COND =90.285 RSTUDENT =3.171 DFFITS =0.697 COEF ESTIMATE STER TSTAT C101A 4.267 0.226 18.919 C101B 0.467 0.059 7.909 C-53 MODEL NAME:A85.1 ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 408:LOG(WRGC)=C89A+C89B*LOG(WEUS) 1 \ 1 I \l1961TO1982 =3495.79 0.022 0.188 RANGE: F(1I20) SSR = MAX:HAT = 0.994 0.033 26.614 -0.621 NOVAR =2 CRSQ = SER = CONn = DFFITS = 0.994 O. 1.3 -1.951 NOB =22 RSQ = PROB:>F = DW(O)= RSTUDENT = C-54 414:LOG (WRGS/PDRPI)=C92A+C92F*D.80DEC6+C92B*LOG(WEUS/PDUSCPI)+ C92C*D61.73+C92D*D74.75 NOB =22 NOVAR = 5 RANGE:1961 TO 1982 :g~Q__:::().~~_?c:::g~~:::O.954 ._!(~!!_~~=108.806 PROB>F =O.SER =0.041 SSR =-6:028 --DW(O);;,,----~--1.27-GONn -;;;------5-:-0-14-MAx:HAT =--~0__=_5-o-7---··- RSTUDENT =2.502 DFFITS =1.167 MODEL NAME:·A8S.1- \t ! ) \,I ! j ) I ] 1 \ I i1 I'r o. O. PROB>£T£TSTAT 41.814 59.125 STER 0.093 0.019 3.899 1.115 ESTIMATE STER TSTAT PROB>£T£ 4.312 0.023 191.473 O. 2.348 0.232 10.134 o. --0.263 0.024 -10.838 O. -0.079 0.036 -2.227 0.04 0.286 0.04 7.222 O. ESTIMATECOEF C89A C89B ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES C92A C92B C92C C92D C92F COEF Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES MODEL NAME:A85.1 416:LOG(WRGL/PDRPI)=C102A+C102F*D.80DEC6+C102B*LOG(WEUS/PDUSCPI)+ C102C*LOG(1+EMCNRT)+C102D*D61.69 NOB =22 NOVAR =5 RANGE:1961 TO ~982 RSQ =0.925 CRSQ =0.907 F(4/17)=52.353 PROB>F =O.SER =0.044 SSR =0.033 DW(O)=1.582 COND =5.469 MAX:HAT =0.504 RSTUDENT =3.038 DFFITS =2.2 COEF ESTIMATE STER TSTAT PROB>£T£ C102A 4.101 0.025 162.752 O. C102B 1.816 0.333 5.449 O. C102C 1.624 0.451 3.603 0.002 11 C102D -0.099 0.031 -3.186 0.005 C102F 0.307 0.05 6.072 O. II ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES MODEL NAME:A85.1 421:LOG (XXGA)=C104A+C104B*LOG(EMGA) NOB =22 NOVAR =2 RANGE:1961 TO 1982 RSQ =1.CRSQ =1.F(1I20)=5.291E+05 PROB>F =O.SER =0.003 SSR =O. DW(O)=0.907 COND =12.294 MAX:HAT =0.198 RSTUDENT =23.908 DFFITS =9.57 i IlJ COEF ESTIMATE STER TSTAT PROB>£T£ C104A 2.146 0.004 515.967 O. C104B 0.992 0.001 727.382 O. C-55 MODEL NAME:A85.1 433:LOG(EMPR01)=C100A+C100C*D61.66+C100B*LOG(EM98) ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES ,! J ( .\ '1 j '~1 1 1 1 I I ( \( i ,I 1 .\ ( 1961 TO 1981 =158.599 0.664 0.207 0.515 O. PROB>£T£TSTAT 0.664 10.001 RANGE:1961 TO 1981 0.832 F(1/19)=100.016 8.732 SSR =1448.75 7.021 MAX:HAT =0.307 0.676 RANGE: 0.94 F(2/18) 0.192 SSR= 56.491 MAX:HAT = .,;;;;1:929-...-,-..... C-56 COEF ESTIMATE STER TSTAT PROB>£T£ C100A -4.285 1.098 -3.903 0.001 C100B 1.237 0.218 5.678 o. C100C "':0.998 0.136 -7.311 o. ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES NOB =21 NOVAR =2 RSQ'=0.84 CRSQ = PROB>F =O.SER = DW(O)=0.6 COND = RSTUDENT =2.426 DFFITS =. COEF ESTIMATE STER C90A 4.529 6.825 C90B 12.29 1.229 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 423:XXA9 =C90A+C90B*(EMA9+EMPROFIS) .MQD.EL NAME:.A8.S.1 . NOB =21 NOVAR = 3 RSQ =0.946 CRSQ = PROB>F =O.SER = DW(O)=0.824 COND = .RSTUDENT-=._-_.-4~18---DFFITS··=·... Institute of Social and Economic Research HAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 COCHRANE-ORCUTT PROCEDURE ITERATION ********* 1 2 3 RHO 1 **** -0.524 -0.543 -0.544 SSR *** 75.057 75.025 75.025 HODEL NAME:A85.1 663:POPMIG =CMIG1+CHIG2*1/U.AK.US(-1)+CMIG3*WR.AK.US(-1)+CMIG4*DELEMP 11 NOB =11 RSQ = PROB>F = DW(O)=. RSTUDENT = NOVAR =5 0.971 CRSQ = O.SER = 2.186 COND = -3.418 DFFITS = 0.952 3.536 29.723 -3.463 RANGE:1971 TO 1982 F(3/6)=50.547 SSR =75.025 MAX:HAT =0.651 COEF CHIG1 CMIG2 CMIG3 CMIG4 RHO 1 ESTIMATE -13.565 13.717 35.794 0.803 -0.544· STER 8.195 8.441 20.298 0.143 0.293 TSTAT -1.655 1.625 1.763 5.632 -1.859 C-57 PROB>£T£ 0.142 0.148 0.121 O. 0.105 :! j ! l ,j ,I 1 'J I J I .1,I ( [ ,,I ,~ ,\ \ j Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 APPENDIX D ISER MAP ALASKA ECONOMIC MODEL: INPUT VARIABLE VALUES--EXOGENOUS AND POLICY VARIABLES ANCSA APPFCONX BADD BALDF6 BALGFUNA BALGF6 1983 O.O. O. O.2454.6 2315.7 1984 O.O.O.O.2000.O. 1985 O.O.o.O.1500.o. 1986 O.O.o.O.1000.o. 1987 O.O.O.O.500.O. 1988 O.O.O.O.500.O. 1989 O.O.O.O.500.O. 1990 O.O.O. O.500.O. 1991 O.O.O.O.500.O. 1992 O.O.O.O.500.o. 1993 O.O.o.O.500.O. 1994 O.O.O.O.500.O. 1995 O.O.O.O.500.O. 1996 O.O.O.O.500.O. 1997 O.o.O.O.500.O. 1998 O.O.O.O.500.O. 1999 O.O.O.O.500.O. 2000 O.O.o.O.500.o. 2001 O.o.o.O.500.o. 2002 O.O.o.O.500.o. 2003 O.o.O.O.500.O. 2004 o.O.o.O.500.O. 2005 o.o. o.O.500.o. Ii 2006 o.o.O.O.500.o. 2007 o.O.o.O.500.o. 2008 o.O.o.O.500.O. 2009 O.O. O.O.500.o. 2010 O.O.o.O.500.O. SOURCE:Dset A85.1 D-l Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 BASPDRPI BIU6 D.80DEC6 D61.64 D61.66 D61.67 1983 1.42.5 0.8 o.o.O. 1984 1.O.0.6 O.O.O. 1985 1.O.0.4 O.O.O. 1986 1.O.0.2 O.O.O. 1987 1.O.O.O.O.o. ,1988 1.o.o.o.O.O. 1989 1.O.O.O.O.O. 1990 1.O.O.O.O.O. 1991 1.O.O.O.O.O. 1992 1.O.O.O.O.O. 1993 1.O.O.O.O.O. 1994 1.O.O.O.0.'O. 1995 1.,0.O.O.O.O. 1996 1.O.O.O.O.O. 1997 1.O.O.O.O.O. 1998 1.O.O.O.O.O. 1999 1.O.O.O.O.O. 2000 1.O.O.O.O.O. 2001 1.O.O.O.O.O. 2002 1.O.O.O.O.o. 2003 1.O.o.o.o.O. 2004 1.O.O.O.O.O. 2005 1.O.O.O.O.O. 2006 1.O.O.O.O.O. 2007 1.O.O.O.O.o. 2008 1.o.o.o.o.O. 2009 1.O.O.O.O.O. 2010 1.O.O.O.O.O. D-3 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 061.68 061.69 061.70 061.72 061.73 061.74 1983 O.O.O.O.O.O. 1984 O.O.O.O.O.O. 1985 O.O.O.O.O.O. 1986 O.O.O.O.O.o. 1987 o.o.o.o.o.O. 1988 O.O.O.O.O.O. 1989 O.O.O.O.O.O. 1990 O.O.O.O.O.O. 1991 O.O.O.O.O.O. 1992 O.O.O.O.O.O. 1993 O.O.O.O.O.O. 1994 O.O.O.O.O.O. 1995 O.O.O.O.O.O. 1996 O.O.O.O.O.O. 1997 O.O.O.O.O.O. 1998 O.O.O.O.O.O. 1999 O.O.O.O.O.O. _._~.•._~---~-.----_....__...-O~(f.-O~2000 ...-0:--· 2001 O.O.O.O.O.O. 2002 O.O.O.O.O.O. 2003 O.O.o.O.O.O. 2004 O.O.O.o.O.O. 2005 O.O.O.o.O.o. --_.._.._-_._.•._.._._._---_.•._-_...•._-~_.._-····2007--·····--·0.······_·---·0·.······--·0·.··-0..0...--0.•- 2008 O.O.O.O.O.O. 2009 O.O.O.O.O.O. 2010 O.O.O.O.O.O. 0-4 1 -j l I .i ( ..) 1 1 j I I I I .1 I 11 D-5 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 Institute of Social _! and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 1 I J J ( I 1 ~l I ! 1 r \ D71.00 D7l.73 D72 D73 D74.75 D75 1983 1.O.O.O.o.O. 1984 1.O.O.o.O. O. 1985 1.O.O.o.O.O. 1986 1.O.O.O.o.O. 198'7 1.O.O.O.O. O. 1988 1.O.O.O.O.O. 1989 1.O.O.O.O.O. 1990 1.O.O.o.o.O. 1991 1.O.O.O.o.O. 1992 1.O.O.O.O.O. 1993 1.O.O.o.O. O. 1994 1.O.O.O.o.O. 1995 1.O.O.o.O.O. 1996 1.O.O.O.O.O. 1997 1.O.O.O.O. O. 1998 1.O.O.O.o.O. O.O.O.O.O. 2000 1.O.O. 2001 1.O.O.o.O.O. 2002 1.O.O.O.O.O. 2003 1.O.O.o.o.o~ 2004 1.O. O.o.O.O. 2005 1.O.O.o.o. o. "..._-_.~-_.,--~-----+-_.._---_.----200-7-----------------1-;-~------~---0-;------0-;-----0.----------------0.-··-o-.-~--_.__..•_----_._~_._.__._.__..__.- 2008 1.O.O.O.O.O. 2009 1.O.O.O.o.O. 2010 1.O.O.o.O.o. D-6 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 D79 D80 D81.00 D82 EMAGRI EMAUN 1983 O.O.1.O.1.438 1984 O.O.1.O.1.438 1985 O.O.1.O.1.438 1986 O.O.1.O.F 1.438 1987 O.O.1.O.R 1.438 1988 O.O.1.O.0 1.438 1989 O.O.1.O.M 1.438 1990 O.O.1.o.1.438 S 1991 O.O.1.O.C 1.438 1992 O.O.1.O.E 1.438 1993 O.O.1.O.N 1.438 1994 O.O.1.O.A 1.438 1995 O.O.1.O.R 1.438 I 1996 O.O.1.O.0 1.438 1997 O.O.1.O.1.438 1998 O.O.1.O.G 1.438 1999 O.O.1.O.E 1.438 2000 O.O.1.O.N 1.438 E 2001 O.O.1.O.R 1.438 2002 O.O.1.o.A 1.438 2003 O.O.1.O.T 1.438 2004 O.O.1.O.0 1.438 2005 O.O.1.O.R 1.438 2006 O.O.1.O.1.438 2007 O.O.1.O.1.438 2008 O.O.1.O.1.438 2009 O.O.1.O.1.438 2010 O.O.1.O.1.438 IJ D-7 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 EMCNX1 EMCNX2 EMFISH EMGC EMGM EMM.X1 1983 1984 1985 1986 F F F F F F 1987 R R R R R R 1988 0 0 0 0 0 0 1989 M M M M M M 1990 S S S S S S 1991 C C C C C C 1992 E E E E E E 1993 N N N N N N 1994 A A A A A A 1995 R R R R R R I I I I I I 1996 0 0 0 0 0 0 1997 1998 G G G G G G 1999 E E E E E E--------'flf2000NN -------N -------------N--------------------- E E E E E E 2,001 R R R R R R 2002 A A A A A A 2003 T T T T T T 2004 0 0 0 0 0 0 2005 R R R R R R -----------------2007---------------------------------------------------------------------------.--------- 2008 2009 2010 D-8 I 1 ! Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 EMMX2 EMNATX EMP9 EMT9X EXCPSFD6 EXCPSGB6 1983 0.17 110.491 127.692 1984 0.17 o.125. 1985 0.17 o.125. 1986 F 0.17 F F o. o. 1987 R 0.17 R R o. o. 1988 0 0.17 0 0 o. o. 1989 M 0.17 M M o. o. 1990 0.17 o. o. S S S 1991 C 0.17 C C o. o. 1992 E 0.17 E E o.o. 1993 N 0.17 N N o.o. 1994 A 0.17 A A o.O. 1995 R 0.17 R R O.O. I I I 1996 0 0.17 0 0 O.O. 1997 0.17 o.O. 1998 G 0.17 G G O.O. 1999 E 0.17 E E o.O. 2000 N 0.17 N N O.o. E E E 2001 R 0.17 R R o.O. 2002 A 0.17 A A O.O. 2003 T 0.17 T T o.O. 2004 0 0.17 0 0 O.O. 2005 R 0.17 R R O.O. 2006 0.17 O.O. 2007 0.17 O.O. 2008 0.17 O.O. 2009 0.17 o.O. 2010 0.17 O.o. \1 0-9 Institute of Social IandEconomicResearch MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 1 j EXDFPCNT EXDF1 EXDSSX EXGFCAP6 EXGFCOT6 EXGFOPSX ! 1983 O. O.142.488 1086.35 608.O. ]1984 O. O.163.4 1050.O.0; 1985 O.O.156.2 1100.O. O. 1986 O.O.150.6 O.O.o. J1987O. O.142.8 O.O.O. 1988 O.O.136.3 O.O.O. 1989 O.O.124.5 O.O.O. ,}1990 O. O.109.8 O.O. O. 1991 O. O.85.6 O.O.O. I1992O.O.58.9 O.O.O. 1993 O.O.51.O.O. O. 1994 O.O.25.8 O.O.O. 1995 O.O.23.1 O.O.O.-l 1996 O. O.21.5 O.O.O. 1997 O.O.16.7 O.O. O.l1998O.O.14.4 O.O.o. -"-.._"-----~..~--_...-...19.9_Q __...._....._Q •.O. O. 2000 O.O.2.6 O. O. 12001o.o. o.o.o.O. 2002 O.O.O.O.O. O. 2003 O. O.O.O.O.0;]2004 O.O.O.O.o.O. 2005 O.O.O.O.O.O. •...__._--_.,.~--_._--·cL lL -.O.--0':!2006 0;...O~·---·· ~-._~--~-_._----------_.__.._---2007---·-0-;---·-0-;--..---0-;·-..·····-0.·---·---··-·-..--0,-------0-.---.--.-----.. 2008 O. O.O.O.O.o. 12009O.O.O.O.O.O. 2010 O.O. O.o.o.O. D-10 D-11 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A8S.1 J _.I J J \ -;\ I ! j ! l I ! j \ Institute of sociall and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 J I I EXPF1 EXSAVX EXSPCAP EXSPLITX EXSUBSX EXSUB1 1983 0.25 O.O.0.75 275.0.05 1984 0.25 O.O.0.75 200.0.05 1985 0.25 O.O.0.75 200.0.05 1986 0.25 O. O.0.75 150.0.05 1987 0.25 O. O.0.75 150.0.05 1988 0.25 O.O.0.75 100.0.05 1989 0.25 O.O.0.75 100.0.05 1990 0.25 O. O.0.75 50.0.05 1991 0.275 O. O.0.75 50.0.05 199:2 0.275 O. O.0.75 O.0.05 1993 0.3 O. O.0.75 O.0.05 1994 0.3 O.O.0.75 O.0.05 1995 0.3 O.O.0.75 O.0.05 1996 0.3 O.O.0.75 O.0.05 1997 0.3 O.O.0.75 O.0.05 1998 0.3 O.O.0.75 O.0.05 1999 0.3 O. O.0.75 O.0.05"--"------,------0:75 -._-~_._--_..__......._-----0:0.05---2000 0.3 O.O. 2001 0.3 O.O.0.75 O.0.05 2002 0.3 O. O.0.75 O.0.05 2003 0.3 O.O.0.75 O.0.05 2004 0.3 O.O.0.75 O.0.05 2005 0.3 O.O.0.75 O.0.05 200-6 ---0;3 0;------0;0;75--------0;-0-;05--- -~._-~--_._-_.~._--_._.._~-----2001-----0--;-3----------0-.----0.-----0-.-7-$-----0-.--0-.-05---------------~-~-~-- 2008 0.3 O.O.0.75 O.0.05 2009 0.3 O. O.0.75 O.0.05 2010 0.3 O. O.0.75 O.0.05 0-12 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 EXSUB2 EXTRNSPI EXTRNSX EXUA6 GODTX GRDIRPU 1983 0.05 291.O.210.947.2 0.005 1984 0.05 O.O.O.847.0.01 1985 0.05 O.O.O.747.0.015 1986 0.05 O.O.O.644.5 0.015 1987 0.05 O.O.O.543.9 0.015 1988 0.05 O. O.O.443.0.015 ] 1989 0.05 O. O.O.347.0.015 1990 0.05 O.O.O.259.2 0.015 1991 0.05 O.O.O.189.5 0.015 1992 0.05 O.O.O.141.2 0.015 1993 0.05 O. O.O.97.7 0.015 1994 0.05 O. O.O.77 .1 0.015 II 1995 0.05 O. O.O.58.0.015 1996 0.05 O. O.O.39.4 0.015 II 1997 0.05 O.O.O.24.5 0.015 lJ 1998 0.05 O. O.O.11.1 0.015 1999 0.05 O. O.O.2.5 0.015 2000 0.05 O. O.O.O.0.015 2001 0.05 O. O.O.O.0.015 2002 0.05 O. O.O.O.0.015 2003 0.05 O. O.O.O.0.015 2004 0.05 O.O. O.O.0.015 2005 0.05 O. O. O.O.0.015 2006 0.05 O.O.O.O.0.015 2007 0.05 O. O.O.O.0.015 2008 0.05 O. O.O.O.0.015 2009 0.05 O.O.O.O.0.015 2010 0.05 O. O.O.O.0.015 D-13 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 GREXCAP GREXOPS GRRPCEX GRRWEUS GRSSCP GRUSCPI 1983 0.2 0.15 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.03 1984 0.15 0.1 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.045 1985 0.15 0.1 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.06 1986 0.1 0.1 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.065 1987 0.1 0.1 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.065 1988 0.1 0.1 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.065 1989 0.1 0.1 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.065 1990 0.1 0.1 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.065 1991 0.1 0.1 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.065 1992 0.1 0.1 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.065 1993 0.1 0.1 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.065 1994 0.1 0.1 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.065 1995 0.1 0.1 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.065 1996 0.1 0.1 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.065 1997 0.1 0.1 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.065 1998 0.1 0.1 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.065 1999 0.1 0.1 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.065 2-000~O~~l-O;T 0.02~~0~01··0·~-02 .....··0-.0&5-·· 2001 0.1 0.1 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.065 2002 0.1 0.1 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.065 2003 0.1 0.1 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.065 2004 0.1 0.1 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.065 2005 0.1 0.1 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.065 ·2006--·~·~O;l·~0.1-·0.02 0·.·01 ....······0.02~-.....0 .065-_.~. ...--_._._-~._~~_....~~200.7----~_0~.~1_.....~.O~.~L ._0_•.Q2....~_0.01 ..-_._-.0.02 ..0.065 2008 0.1 0.1 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.065 2009 0.1 0.1 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.065 2010 0.1 0.1 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.065 ! J j J j .1 J I I j I l/ .! ! ! j 1 .! J 1 I D-1S Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A8S.1 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 LBOND14 LBOND15 LBOND2 LBOND3 LBOND4 LBOND5 1983 O.0.1 O.0.022 O.O. 1984 O.0.1 O.0.022 O. O. 1985 O.0.1 O.0.022 O.O. 1986 O.0.1 O.0.022 O.O. 1987 O.0.1 O.0.022 O.O. 1988 O.0.1 O.0.022 O.O. 1989 O.0.1 O.0.022 O.O. 1990 O.0.1 O.0.022 O.O. 19~1 O.0.1 O.0.022 O.O. 1992 O.0.1 O.0.022 O.O. 1993 O.0.1 O.0.022 O.O. 1994 O.0.1 O.0.022 O.O. 1995 O.0.1 O.0.022 O.O. 1996 O.0.1 O.0.022 O.O. 1997 O.0.1 O.0.022 O.O. 1998 O.0.1 O.0.022 O.O. 1999 O.0.1 O.0 ..022 O.O. .~~_.~._.----0.-----0:022 -2000 O.0.1 -0:-0-:- 2001 O.0.1 O.0;022 O.O. 2002 O.0.1 O.0.022 O.O. 2003 O.0.1 O.0.022 O.O. 2004 O.0.1 O.0.022 O.O. 2005 O.0.1 O.0.022 O.O. 200~--0.-O~l O~----'0;-022 --0;-0. _._---.~----~~--~-~--200-,},---.-_·------0.----·--------0.1---------0-.------0-.-022--------0-.-------_______.._0.._______ 2008 O.0.1 O.0.022 O.O. 2009 O.0.1 O.0.022 O.O. 2010 O.0.1 O.0.022 O.O. D-16 1 j j I J 1 J .J J j J ,] 1 'j 'J j 1 I j D-17 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 LFEDll LFED12 LFED13 LFED14 LFED15 LFED2 1983 O. O.O.O.0.1 0.028 1984 O.O.O. O.0.1 0.028 1985 O. O.O.O.0.1 0.028 1986 O. O.O.O.0.1 0.028 1987 O.O.o.O.0.1 0.028 1988 O. O. O. O.0.1 0.028 1989 O. O.O.O.0.1 0.028 1990 O.O.O.O.0.1 0.028 1991 O. O.O.O.0.1 0.028 1992 O. O.O.O.0.1 0.028 1993 O.O.O.O.0.1 0.028 1994 O.O. O.O.0.1 0.028 1995 O.O.O.O.0.1 0.028 1996 O.O.O. O.0.1 0.028 1997 O. O.O.O.0.1 0.028 1998 O.O.O.O.0.1 0.028 O.0.1 0.028 2000 O.O. O. O.0.1 O. 2001 O. O. o.O.0~1 0.028 2002 O.O.O. O.0.1 0.028 2003 O.O.O.O.0.1 0.028 2004 O. O. O. O.0.1 0.028 2005 O.O.O.O.0.1 0.028 -O~.................o~r····0;028··· .~----~~--.·--··200'---··~_··-·-0-;-···-0-;------0.----·-0.-··--~--0..1--0.0·28----._-.. 2008 O.O.O. O.0.1 0.028 2009 O.O.O.O.0.1 0.028 2010 O.O.o.O.0.1 0.028 D-18 /! 1 I ] ] J -j ":1 I J .1 1 ] I "J I '1 J "j 0-19 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A8S.1 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 LFED9 LGF1 LGF10 LGF11 LGF12 LGF13 1983 O.0.048 0.27 O.O.O. 1984 O.0.048 0.27 O.O.O. 1985 O.0.048 0.27 O.O.O. 1986 O.0.048 0.27 O.O.O. 1987 O.0.048 0.27 O.O.O. 1988 O.0.048 0.27 O.O.O. 1989 O.0.048 0.27 O.O.O. 1990 O.0.048 0.27 O.O.O. 1991 O.0.048 0.27 O.O.O. 1992 O.0.048 0.27 O.O.O. 1993 O.0.048 0.27 O.O.O. 1994 O.0.048 0.27 O.O.O. 1995 O.0.048 0.27 O.O.O. 1996 O.0.048 0.27 O.O.O. 1997 O.0.048 0.27 O.O.O. 1998 O.0.048 0.27 O.O.O. 1999 O.0.048 0.27 O.O.O. 2000 0.27 ---,.---0:o.O~ 2001 O.0.048 0.27 O.O.O. 2002 O.0.048 0.27 O.O.O. 2003 O.0.048 0.27 O.O.o. '-2004 O.0.048 0.27 O.O.O. 2005 O.0.048 0.27 O.O.O. ----2006-----o-~---0-.0-48--.--0~27-... -----_....._._---_..._...........__.._---2()()-7--------------0-.-----0.-048------0-.-2-7--0-.----_---0-.------------0-.------ 2008 O.0.048 0.27 O.O.O. 2009 O.0.048 0.27 O.O.O. 2010 O.0.048 0.27 O.O.o. D-20 I ) I -] 1 1 ;1 I 1 J I l ] ] I I I - J '" ,J...~ 1 I j Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 LGF14 LGF15 LGF2 LGF3 LGF4 LGF5 1983 O.0.1 0.014 0.013 0.089 O. 1984 O.0.1 0.014 0.013 0.089 O. 1985 O.0.1 0.014 0.013 0.089 O. 1986 O.0.1 0.014 0.013 0.089 O. 1987 O.0.1 0.014 0.013 0.089 O. 1988 O.0.1 0.014 0.013 0.089 O. 1989 O.0.1 0.014 0.013 0.089 O. 1990 O.0.1 0.014 0.013 0.089 O. 1991 O.0.1 0.014 0.013 0.089 O. 1992 O.0.1 0.014 0.013 0.089 O. 1993 O.0.1 0.014 0.013 0.089 O. 1994 O.0.1 0.014 0.013 0.089 O. 1995 O.0.1 0.014 0.013 0.089 O. 1996 O.0.1 0.014 0.013 0.089 O. 1997 O.0.1 0.014 0.013 0.089 O. 1998 O.0.1 0.014 0.013 0.089 O. 1999 O.0.1 0.014 0.013 0.089 O. 2000 O.0.1 0.014 0.013 0.089 O. 2001 O.0.1 0.014 0.013 0.089 O. 2002 O.0.1 0.014 0.013 0.089 O. 2003 O.0.1 0.014 0.013 0.089 O. 2004 O.0.1 0.014 0.013 0.089 O. 2005 O.0.1 0.014 0.013 0.089 O. 2006 O.0.1 0.014 0.013 0.089·O. 2007 O.0.1 0.014 0.013 0.089 O. 2008 O.0.1 0.014 0.013 0.089 O. 2009 O.0.1 0.014 0.013 0.089 O. 2010 O.0.1 0.014 0.013 0.089 O. D-21 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 LGF6 LGF7 LGF8 LGF9 LMUNCAP LPTRAT 1983 0.213 0.092 0.139 0.021 0.75 0.6 1984 0.213 0.092 0.139 0.021 0.75 0.6 1985 0.213 0.092 0.139 0.021 0.75 0.6 1986 0.213 0.092 0.139 0.021 0.75 0.6 1987 0.213 0.092 0.139 0.021 0.75 0.6 1988 0.213 0.092 0.139 0.02l 0.75 0.6 1989 0.213 0.092 0.139 0.021 0.75 0.6 1990 0.213 0.092 0.139 0.021 0.75 0.6 1991 0.213 0.092 0.139 0.021 0.75 0.6 1992 0.213 0.092 0.139 0.021 0.75 0.6 1993 0.213 0.092 0.139 0.021 0.75 0.6 1994 0.213 0.092 0.139 0.021 0.75 0.6 1995 0.213 0.092 0.139 0.021 0.75 0.6 1996 0.213 0.092 0.139 0.021 0.75 0.6 1997 0.213 0.092 0.139 0.021 0.75 0.6 1998 0.213 0.092 0.139 0.021 0.75 0.6 19_9_9_....____0_.213._JLJ>9Z._.Q.!13~.__Q.021_0.75 0.6 --~.•......._.__•.._---.---~--_...--_._--_....-.-_._--_.. 2000 0.213 0.092 0.139 0.021 0.75 0.6 2001 0.213 0.092 0.139 0.021 0.75 0.6 2002 0.213 0.092 0.139 0.021 0.75 0.6 2003 0.213 0.092 0.139 0.021 0.75 0.6 2004 0.213 0.092 0.139 0.021 0.75 0.6 2005 0.213 0.092 0.139 0.021 0.75 0.6 .-_.•....-.•--_._._-_..•._-_•..~._--._- 2006 0.213 0.092 ...----cLI39 ().·O21····-O~75-•.•...........•......•--0:6- .-----_.__..__._..__._._._-_._~-_._.~.---20-07-----~-0--;--2 1:3-----0-;-092---'0-;-1:39----O-;-02r----O-;'7-5-------0.6---·- 2008 0.213 0.092 0.139 0.021 0.75 0.6 2009 0.213 0.092 0.139 0.021 0.75 0.6 2010 0.213 0.092 0.139 0.021 0.75 0.6 D-22 1 "'I li 0-23 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A8S.1 Institute of Social -J and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 \} LSGF15 LSGF2 LSGF3 LSGF4 LSGF5 LSGF6 1983 O. O. O.o.O.1. 1984 O.O. O.O. O.1. 1985 O. O. O.O.O.1. 1986 O. O.o.O.O.1. 1987 O. O. O.O.o.L 1988 O. O. O.o.O.1. 1989 O.O.O.o.O.1. 1990 O. O. O. O.O.1. 1991 O.O.O.O.O.1. 1992 O.O.O.O.O.1. 1993 O.O.O.O.O.1. 1994 O. O.O.o.O.1. 1995 O. O.O.o.O.1. 1996 O.O.O.O.O.1. 1997 O.O.O.O.O.1. 1998 O.O.O.O.O.1. 1999 O. O.o. o.O.1.----- 2000 O.O. 2001 O.O. O. O.O.l. 2002 O.O.O.O.O.1. 2003 O. O. O. O.O.1. 2004 O. O. O. O.O.1. 2005 O.O.O.O.O.1. ----------------2007--~~--~-"~..._.~~---0.---------0.--------0-.--"------------o-.----~--o-.----------------1-.- 2008 O. O.o.o.O.1. 2009 O.O.O.O. O.1. 2010 O.O. O. O.O.1. 0-24 ( ) l ! I ,.I ) I ,1 ( 1 -! 1 ! I Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 LSGF7 LSGF8 LSGF9 NCBP NCRP OMFl 1983 O.O.O.O.O.O. 1984 O.O.O.O.O.O. 1985 O.O.O.O.O.O. 1986 O.O.O.O.O.'i O. 1987 O.O.O.O.O.O. 1988 O.O.o.O.O.O. 1989 O.O.O.O. O. O. 1990 O.O.O.O.O.O. 1991 O.O.O.O.O.O. 1992 O.O.O.O.o.O. 1993 O. O. O.O.O.O. 1994 O.O.O.o.O.O. 1995 O.O.O.O.o.O. 1996 O.O.o. o. o.O. 1997 O.O.o.o.O. O. 1998 O. O.O.O.O.O. 1999 O. O. O.O.O. O. 2000 O.O. O.O.O. O. 2001 O. O.o.o.o.O. 2002 O. O. O.O.O.O. 2003 O. O.O.O.O.O. 2004 O. O. O.O.O.O. 2005 O. O. O.O.O.O. 2006 O.O.O.O.O.O. 2007 O. O. O.O.O.O. 2008 O.O..O.O.O.O. 2009 O.O.o.o.o.O. 2010 O. O. O.O.o. o. 0-25 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 OMF10 OMFl1 OMF12 OMF13 OMF14 OMF15 1983 O.O.O.O.o.O. 1984 O.O.o.o.o.O. 1985 O.O.O.O.O.O. 1986 O.O.O.O.o.O. 1987 O.O.O.o.o.O. 1988 O.O.O.o.O.O. 1989 O.O.o.O.o.O. 1990 O.O.o.o.O.O. 1991 O.O.O.O.O.O. 1992 O.O.O.O.o.O. 1993 O.O.O.O.O.O. 1994 O.O.O.O.o.O. 1995 O.O.o.O.o.O. 1996 O.O.O.O.O.O. 1997 O.O.O.o.o.O. 1998 O.O.O.O.O.O. 1999 O.O.O.O.O.O. .0-:-·..·O~~~ 2001 O.O.o.O.O.O. 2002 O.O.o.o.O.O. 2003 O.O.O.o.o.-0·. 2004 O.O.O.O.O.O. 2005 O.O.o.O.O.o. .--_.......,._....-_..•-_....•.•-.'.-_.__.....--.----',2006-... .--_._~~-----_.--.---_.._-·-200-7-··~-----0-.··_····-~O·.····_·_·O..O.--..-0.........__.-___0_... 2008 O.O.O.o.O.O. 2009 O.O.O.O.O.O. 2010 O.O.O.O.O.o. ,1 "'( I Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 OMF2 OMF3 OMF4 OMF5 OMF6 OMF7 1983 O.O.O.O.O.O. 1984 O.O.O.O.O..O. 1985 O.O.O.O.O.O. 1986 O.O.O.O.O.O.r.. 1987 O.O.O.O.O.O.'; 1988 O.O.O.O.O.O. 1989 O.O.O.O.O.O. 1990 O.O.O.O.O.O. II 1991 o.0 ..O.O.O.O. 1992 O.O.o.O.o.O. I J 1993 O. O.O.O.O.O. 1994 O.O.O.O.O.O. 1995 O.O.O.O.O.O. 1996 O.O.O.O.O.O. (i 1997 O.O.O.O.O.o. I 1998 O.O.O.O.O.O. 1999 O.O. O.O.O.O. 2000 O.O.O.o.O.O. 2001 O.O.o.o.O.O. 2002 O.O.o.O.O.O. 2003 O.o.o.O.o.O. 2004 O.O. O.O.o.O. 2005 O.o.o.O.O.O. 2006 O.O.o.o.o.O. 2007 O.O.O.O.o.O. 2008 O.O.o.o.O.O. 2009 O.O.o.o.o.O. 2010 O.O.o.o.o.o. 0-27 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984.Model A85.1 r ) OMF8 OMF9 OML1 OMLIO OML11 OML12 1983 O. O.O.0.05 O.O. 1984 O.O.O.0.05 O.O. 1985 O.O. O.0.05 O.O. 1986 O. O. O.0.05 O.O. 1987 O. O.O.0.05 O.O. 1988 O. O.O.0.05 O.O. 1989 O. O.O.0.05 O.O. 1990 O. O.O.0.05 O.O. 1991 O. O.O.0.05 O.O. 1992 O.O.O.0.05 O.O. 1993 O.O.O.0.05 O.O. 1994 O.O.O.0.05 O.O. 1995 O.O.O.0.05 O.O. 1996 O.O.O.0.05 O.O. 1997 O.O.O.0.05 O.O. 1998 O. O.O.0.05 O.O. O.O.0.05 O.O. 2000 O.O.o.<Los O. 2001 O. O.O.0.05 O.O. 2002 O.O.O.0.05 O.O. 2003 O.O.O.0.05 O.O. 2004 O. O.O.0.05 O.O. 2005 O.O.O.0.05 O.O. ~2006 O~...o~-··-o~·-·_···-0:·05 ···········-····--0-:·O-;~- .__._-~_.__.•._._._--_.-._-_._-_._---_.~_._-·~2007-·--·_-0-;-------~----0.·----~0...··-·-0.05------0·.--·········-0-.- 2008 O.O.O.0.05 O.O. 2009 O. O.O.0.05 O.O. 2010 O. O.O.0.05 O.O. 0-28 t :f I 1 I I I .1 I 1 l- i f ·1 l ·1 ! Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 OML13 OML14 OML15 OML2 OML3 OML4 1983 O.O. O.O.O.O. 1984 O.O.O.o.o.O. 1985 O.O. O.O.O.O. 1986 O.O.O.O. O. O. 1987 O.0;"i O.O.O. O. 1988 O.O.O.o.O.O. 1989 O.O.O.O.O.O. 1990 O.O.O.O. O.O. 1991 O.O.O.O.O.O. 1992 O.O.O.O.O.O. 1993 O.O. O.O.O.O. 1994 O.O.O.O.O.O. 1995 O.O.O.O.O.O. 1996 O.O.O. O.O.O. 1997 O.O.O. O. O.O. 1998 O.O. O.O. O.O. 1999 O. O.O.O.O. O. 2000 O.O.O.O.O.O. 2001 O.O.O.O.O.O. 2002 O.O.O.O.O.O. 2003 O.O.O.O.O.O. 2004 O.O.o.O. O.O. 2005 O.O.O. O.O.O. 2006 O.O.O.O.O.O. 2007 O. O.O.o.O. O. 2008 O.o.O.o.o.O. 2009 O.O.O.O.O.O. 2010 O.O.O.O.O.O. 0-29 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 OML5 OML6 OML7 OML8 OML9 OMS 1 1983 O.O.O.O.O.0.02 1984 O.O.O.O.O.0.02 1985 O.O.O.O.O.0.02 1986 O. O. O.O.O.0.02 1987 O. O.O.O.O.0.02 1988 O. O.O.O.O.0.02 1989 O.O. O.O.O.0.02 1990 O.O.O.O.O.0.02 1991 O.O.O.O.O.0.02 1992 O.O.O.O.O.0.02 1993 O.O.O.O.O.0.02 1994 O.O.O.O.O.0.02 1995 O.O. O.O.O.0.02 1996 O.O.O.O.O.0.02 1997 O.O.O.O.O.0.02 1998 O. O.O.O.O.0.02 1999 O.O.O.O.O.0.02 2000 ....0:-----O~...0~-02-- 2001 O. O.O.O.O.0.02 2002 O.O.O. O.O.0.02 2003 O.O.O.O.O.0.02 2004 O.O.O.O.O.0.02 2005 O. O.O.O.O.0.02 200·6 o~-··0;···-0.·0.·.·0 .0.02.- ~-------_.~-_.~----_.._.__._,--_.._-..·~_200-7--------0-.-·-···---·-0-.-···---.--0-.-......-..__.__0_....__0_.__.__.......Q...QL 2008 o.O. O.O.O.0.02 2009 O.O.O.o.O.0.02 2010 O.O.O.O.O.0.02 ,( i I j ·r 'f ,I I I 1 f i Institute of Social and Economic Research' MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 OMS10 OMS 11 OMS12 OMS13 OMS14 OMS15 1983 O.O.o.o.O.O. 1984 O.O.O.O.O.O. 1985 O.O.O.O.O.O. 1986 O.O.O.O.O.'O. 1987 O.O.O.O.0.':O. 1988 O.O.O.O.O.O. 1989 O.O.O.O.O.O. 1990 O.O.o.O.o.O. 1991 O.O.O.O.O.O. 1992 O.O.O.O.O.O. 1993 O.O.O.O.O.O. 1994 O.O.O.O.O.O. 1995 O.O.O.o.o.O. 1996 O.O.o.O.O.O. 1997 O.O.O.O.O.O. 1998 O.O.O.O.O.O. 1999 O.O.O.O.O.O. 2000 O.O.O.O.O.O. 2001 O.O.O.O.O.O. 2002 O.O.O.O.O.O. 2003 O.O.O.O.o.O. 2004 O.O.O.O.O.O. 2005 O.O.o.O.O.O. 2006 O.O.O.O.O.O. 2007 O.O.O.O.O.O. 2008 O.O.O.O.O.O. 2009 O.O.O.o.O.O. 2010 O.O.O.O.O.O. 0-31 Institute of SOCial! and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 I ) OMS 2 OMS3 OMS4 OMS5 OMS 6 OMS 7 1983 O.0.04 O.O.0.065 0.06 1984 O.0.04 O.O.0.065 0.06 1985 O.0.04 O.O.0.065 0.06 1986 O.0.04 O.O.0.065 0.06 1987 O.0.04 O.O.0.065 0.06 1988 O.0.04 O.O.0.065 0.06 1989 O.0.04 O.O.0.065 0.06 1990 O.0.04 O.O.0.065 0.06 1991 O.0.04 O.O.0.065 0.06 1992 O.0.04 O.O.0.065 0;06 1993 o.0.04 O.O.0.065 0.06 1994 O.0.04 O.O.0.065 0.06 1995 O.0.04 O.O.0.065 0.06 1996 O.0.04 O.O.0.065 0.06 1997 O.0.04 O.O.0.065 0.06 1998 O.0.04 O.O.0.065 0.06 1999 0.04 O.O.0.065 0.06------_....-<f.065 ------0:062000O.0.04 2001 O.0.04 O.O.0.065 0.06 2002 O.().04 O.O.0.065 0.06 2003 O.0.04 --0.O.0.065 0.06 2004 O.0.04 O.O.0.065 0.06 2005 O.0.04 O.O.0.065 0.06 ---ZOO-6 --0;----0;04 ---0;---0;--0.-065 0-;06- -"------_..•._-----_.__....__._-_..._._-_._-_.._.__.---200-7~----------o~----------(h04----------0.----------0.-------0.-0605-0-.-06--- 2008 O.0.04 O.O.0.065 0.06 2009 O.0.04 O.O.0.065 0.06 2010 O.0.04 O.O.0.065 0.06 D-32 1 f ] l 1 1 j I ! I { \ I I Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 OMS8 OMS 9 OMU1 OMU10 OMUll OMU12 1983 O.O.O.0.05 O.O. 1984 O.O.O.0.05 O.O. 1985 O.O.O.0.05 O.O. 1986 O. O.O.0.05 O.O. 1987 O.O. O.0.05 O.O.'i 1988 O.O.O.0.05 O.O. 1989 O.O.O.0.05 O.O. 1990 O.O.O.0.05 O.O. 1991 O.O..O.0.05 O.O. 1992 O.O.O.0.05 O.O. 1993 O.O.O.0.05 O. O. 1994 O.O.O.0.05 O.O. 1995 O.O.O.0.05 O.O. 1996 O.O.O.0.05 O.O. 1997 O.O.O.0.05 O.O. 1998 O.O.O.0.05 O.O. 1999 O.O.O.0.05 O.o. 2000 O.O.O.0.05 O. O. 2001 O.O.O.0.05 O.O. 2002 O. O.O.0.05 O.O. 2003 O.O.O.0.05 O.O. 2004 O.O.O.0.05 O.O. 2005 O. O.O.0.05 O.O. 2006 O.O. O.0.05 O.O. 2007 O.O.O.0.05 O.O. 2008 O.o.O.0.05 O.o. 2009 O.O.O.0.05 O.O. 2010 O.O.O.0.05 O.O. D-33 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 OMU13 OMU14 OMU15 OMU2 OMU3 OMU4 1983 O. O. O.0.02 O.O. 1984 O.O.O.0.02 O. O. 1985 O.O.O.0.02 O.O. 1986 O. O. O.0.02 O.O. 1987 O.O.O.0.02 O.O. 1988 O. O. O.0.02 O.O. 1989 O. O.O.0.02 O.O. 1990 O.O.O.0.02 O.O. 1991 O. O. O.0.02 O.O. 1992 O.O.O.0.02 O. O. 1993 O.O.O.0.02 O.O. 1994 O.O.O.0.02 O.O. 1995 O.O.O.0.02 O.O. 1996 O. O. O.0.02 O.O. 1997 O.O.O.0.02 O.O. 1998 O. O. O.0.02 O. O. 1999 O.().O.0.02 O.O. 2000~O~_...•O~O;~~O.-O2-~O.O-.~-~ 2001 O.O.O.0.02 O.O. 2002 O. O. O.0.02 O.O. 2003 O. O. O.0.02 O.O. 2004 O.O.O.0.02 O.O. 2005 O.O.O.0.02 O.O. ·2006-.~O.~--O .--0 ......0.02 0.._.0 ...___..... ---_._~----_.-.-------- ___2.(tO_L___~_.JL,.-..---~--~-_..._~---._-~_....0.02 O.O. ._--~.----"-.-.._-----_."-_._.."--_.."--------_._-_..._- 2008 O.O.O.0.02 O.O. 2009 O.O.O.0.02 O.O. 2010 O.O.O.0.02 O.O. ( 1 i '! ,1 I J ( I I I '.) J ,l I Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 OMU5 OMU6 OMU7 OMU8 OMU9 PCNC1 1983 o.o.o.0.01 0.1 0.15 1984 o.o.o.0.01 0.1 0.15 1985 o.o.o.0.01 0.1 0.15 1986 o.o.o.0.01 0.1 0.15 1987 o.o.o.0.01 0.1 0.15 1988 o.o.o.0.01 0.1 0.15 1989 o.o.o.0.01 0.1 0.15 1990 o.o.o.0.01 0.1 0.15 1991 o.o.o.0.01 0.1 0.15 1992 o.o.o.0.01 0.1 0.15 1993 o.o.o.0.01 0.1 0.15 1994 o.o.o.0.01 0.1 0.15 1995 o.o.o.0.01 0.1 0.15 1996 o.o.o.0.01 0.1 0.15 1997 o.o.o.0.01 0.1 0.15 1998 o.o.o.0.01 0.1 0.15 1999.o.80.o.0.01 0.1 0.15 2000 o.o.o.0.01 0.1 0.15 2001 o.o.o.0.01 0.1 0.15 2002 o.o.o.0.01 0.1 0.15 2003 o.o.o.0.01 0.1 0.15 2004 o.o.o.0.01 0.1 0.15 2005 o.o.o.0.01 0.1 0.15 2006 o.o.o.0.01 0.1 0.15 2007 o.o.o.0.01 0.1 0.15 2008 o.o.o.0.01 0.1 0.15 2009 o.o.o.0.01 0.1 0.15 2010 o.o.o.0.01 0.1 0.15 0-35 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 PCNC2 PCNC3 PCOLART PDRATI06 PDUSCPI6 PIPADJ 1983 0.15 0.15 0.25 1.234 297.1.62 1984 0.15 0.15 0.25 O.O.1.62 1985 0.15 0.15 0.25 O.o.1.62 1986 0.15 0.15 0.25 O.o.1.62 1987 0.15 0.15 0.25 o.O.1.62 1988 0.15 0.15 0.25 o.o.1.62 1989 0.15 0.15 0.25 O.o.1.62 1990 0.15 0.15 0.25 o.o.1.62 1991 0.15 0.15 0.25 o.o.1.62 1992 0.15 0.15 0.25 O.o.1.62 1993 0.15 0.15 0.25 o.o.1.62 1994 0.'15 0.15 0.25 o.o~1.62 1995 0.15 0.15 0.25 O.o.1.62 1996 0.15 0.15 0.25 O.o.1.62 1997 0.15 0.15 0.25 o.o.1.62 1998 0.15 0.15 0.25 o.o.1.62 1999 0.15 0.15 0.25 o.o.1.62 -_._-_._-~_......•__._~..._.._..._-_._.._...•."-_..----~1rO-O---..-0-:-15 ---0-:;r5··0-~25 ..--0-.---....--~·-O;1~6c2- 2001 0.15 0.15 0.25 O.O.1.62 2002 0.15 0.15 0.25 O.O.1.62 2003 0.15 0.15 0.25 O.o.1.62 2004 0.15 0.15 0.25 O.o.1.62 2005 0.15 0.15 0.25 o.o.1.62 ·2006-----0·;15 --0.15---0.2-5 ·--·0.····0.1.-62- ~_._.._---_._.._.•...-.----~--200-7-~._-------0-.-15---___0_._15__0_.~25_...__._O_._..~..__._..__.J)_.______._._1......QL -----_..._----._---- 2008 0.15 0.15 0.25 O.O.1.62 2009 0.15 0.15 0.25 O.o.1.62 2010 0.15 0.15 0.25 O.o.1.62 0:':'36 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 PITRAN6 PR.DPIU6 P9PTPER RCDEP1 RCDEP10 RCDEPll 1983 O.3350.0.75 0.055 0.055 O. 1984 O.O.0.75 0.055 0.055 O. 1985 O.O.0.75 0.055 0.055 O. 1986 O.O.0.75 0.055 0.055 O. 1987 O.O.0.75 0.055 0.055 O. 1988 O.O.0.75 0.055 0.055 O. 1989 O.O.0.75 0.055 0.055 O. 1990 O.O.0.75 0.055 0.055 O. 1991 O.O.0.75 0.05,5 0.055 O. 1992 O.O.0.75 0.055 0.055 O. 1993 O.O.0.75 0.055 0.055 O. 1994 O.O.0.75 0.055 0.055 O. 1995 O.O.0.75 0.055 0.055 O. 1996 O.O.0.75 0.055 0~055 O. 1997 O.O.0.75 0.055 0.055 O. 1998 O.O.0.75 0.055 0.055 O. 1999 O.O.0.75 0.055 0.055 O. 2000 O.O.0.75 0.055 0.055 O. 2001 O.O.0.75 0.055 0.055 O. 2002 O.O.0.75 0.055 0.055 O. 2003 O.O.0.75 0.055 0.055 O. 2004 O.O.0.75 0.055 .0.055 O. 2005 O.O.0.75 0.055 0.055 O. 2006 O.O.0.75 0.055 0.055 O. 2007 O.O.0.75 0.055 0.055 O. 2008 O.O.0.75 0.055 0.055 O. 2009 O.O.0.75 0.055 0.055 O. 2010 O.O.0.75 0.055 0.055 O. D-37 Institute of Social :1 and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 ..\ .. RCDEP12 RCDEP13 RCDEP14 RCDEP2 RCDEP3 RCDEP5 1983 O.O.O.0.05 0.055 O. 1984 O.O. O.0.05 0.055 O. 1985 O.O.O.0.05 0.055 O. 1986 O.O.O.0.05 0.055 O. 1987 O.O. O. 0.05 0.055 O. 1988 O.O.O.0.05 0.055 O. 1989 O.O.O.0.05 0.055 O. 1990 O.O. O.0.05 0.055 O. 1991 O. O.O.0.05 0.055 O. 1992 O.O.O.0.05 0.055 O. 1993 O.O.O.0.05 0.055 O. 1994 O.O.O.0.05 0.055 O. 1995 O.O.O.0.05 0.055 O. 1996 O.O.O.0.05 0.055 O. 1997 O.O.O.0.05 0.055 O. 1998 O.O.O.0.05 0.055 O. 1999 O.O.O.0.05 0.055 O. ···2000·······~··O~·~O~~·O~····0·~o-5 0-:'-055·..·O~.· 2001 O.O. O.0.05 0.055 O. 2002 O.O. O.0.05 0.055 O. 2003 O.O.O.0.05 0.055 O. 2004 O.O.O.0.05 0.055 O. 2005 O.O.O.0.05 0.055 O. .-··.···.-·_·.-·0····_·-.·••····.·.··_·_··_--.·••····.__2006 ·~~-~·~O-;~~O._..._-.0·;0;05·..·0;055 ··_·O ..~ ---"------~--~··~-···~-2·00·7-·0..··_···---0-..·..---0...-0...05---~~0 ...055...._0.•_ 2008 O.O. O.0.05 0.055 O. 2009 O.O.O.0.05 0.055 O. 2010 O.O. O.0.05 0.055 O. D-38 II Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 RCDEP6 RCDEP7 RCDEP8 RCDEP9 REPFI REPF10 1983 0.04 0.1 0.02 0.04 O.O. 1984 0.04 0.1 0.02 0.04 O.O. 1985 0.04 0.1 0.02 0.04 O.O. 1986 0.04 0.1 0.02 0.04 O.O. 1987 0.04 0.1 0.02 0.04 O.O. 1988 0.04 0.1 0.02 0.04 O.O. 1989 0.04 0.1 0.02 0.04 O.O. 1990 0.04 0.1 0.02 0.04 O.O. 1991 0.04 0.1 0.02 0.04 O.O. 1992 0.04 0.1 0.02 0.04 O.O. 1993 0.04 0.1 0.02 0.04 O.o. 1994 0.04 0.1 0.02 0.04 O.O. 1995 0.04 0.1 0.02 0.04 O.O. 1996 0.04 0.1 0.02 0.04 O.O. 1997 0.04 0.1 0.02 0.04 O.O. 1998 0.04 0.1 0.02 0.04 O.O. 1999 0.04 0.1 0.02 0.04 O.O. 2000 0.04 0.1 0.02 0.04 O.O. 2001 0.04 0.1 0.02 0.04 O.O. 2002 0.04 0.1 0.02 0.04 O.O. 2003 0.04 0.1 0.02 0.04 O.O. 2004 0.04 0.1 0.02 0.04 O..O. 2005 0.04 0.1 0.02 0.04 O.O. 2006 0.04 0.1 0.02 0.04 O.O. 2007 0.04 0.1 0.02 0.04 O.O. 2008 0.04 0.1 0.02 0.04 O.O. 2009 0.04 0.1 0.02 0.04 O.O. 2010 0.04 0.1 0.02 0.04 O.O. D-39 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 REPFll REPF12 REPF13 REPF14 REPF15 REPF2 1983 o.o.O.o.o.O. 1984 O.O.O.O.O.o. 1985 O.O.O.o.o.o. '..1986 "O.O.O.O.o.o. 1987 O.O.o.O.O.O. 1988 O.O.O.O.O.o. 1989 O.O.O.O.O.o. 1990 O.O.o.O.O.O. 1991 o.O.O.o.O.o. 1992 o.O.O.O.O.O. 1993 O.O.O.O.O.O. 1994 O.O.O.O.O.o. 1995 O.O.O.o.o.o. 1996 O.O.o.O.O.o. 1997 O.O.O.O.o.O. 1998 O.o.o.O.O.o. O.O.O.O. 2000 O.O.O.O.O.o. 2001 O.O.O.O.O.o. 2002 O.O.O.O.O.o. 2003 o.O.O.O.o.O. 2004 O.O.O.o.O.o. 2005 O.O.o.o.O.o. --_.._---_.._~_..•_...._..•__._-_..----2007--------·-·-0-.----'---0-;---'""-0",;,"--0.----"---.O.-0-._.-. 2008 O.O.O.o.o.O. 2009 O.o.O.O.o.o. 2010 O.O.o.o.o.o. D-40 f i i I 1 i ;1 ! l ! l .] I i I r ( 1 .( I ( D-41 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A8S.1 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 REPF9 REPL1 REPL10 REPL11 REPL12 REPL13 1983 O.O.0.055 O.O.O. 1984 O.O.0.055 O.O. O. 1985 O.O.0.055 O.O. O. --! O.O.r..0.055 O.O. O.1986 '; 1987 O.O.0.055 O.O.O. 1988 O.O.0.055 O.O.O. 1989 O.O.0.055 O.O. O. 1990 O.O.0.055 O.O. O. 1991 O.O.0.055,O. O. O. 1992 O.O.0.055 O.O.O. 1993 O.O.0.055 O.O.O. 1994 O.O.0.055 O.O.O. 1995 O.O.0.055 00 O.O. 1996 O.O.00055 O.O. O. 1997 O.O.00055 O.O.O. 1998 O.O.0.055 O.O.O. 1999 O.O.0.055 O.00 o. ~.-_.._-_.•....__......_._..__..._...._----_.__..•_-_._~--"----_....<Loss 0:-O~~·2000 O.O. 2001 O.O.0.055 O.O. O. 2002 O.O.0.055 O.O. O. 2003 O.O.0.055 O. O.O. 2004 O.O.0.055 O.O.O. 2005 O.O.0.055 00 O.O. 2006 '0.'O~0~055 O~0;'0; ._---_._--_.._-_._-.~~2001~·~·,-o·.,-~.'..-O..~-~~,..·-O.O55~··_-~..O..'_·.._--O..~-,..__-.-,··-o.--~--_._.•._------~---_._- 2008 O.O.0.055 O.O.O. 2009 O.O.0.055 O.O.O. 2010 O.O.0.055 O.O.O. 0-42 ! ,1 ! ! 1 ,( ~~--j J I j 1 ] 1 i ! ( 1 I ( (Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.! REPL14 REPL15 REPL2 REPL3 REPL4 REPL5 1983 o.o.o.o.o. o. 1984 o.o. o. o.o.o. 1985 o.o.o.o. o. o. 1986 o.o.o.o. o.o. 1987 o.o.o.o.o.o. 1988 o.o.o.o.o.o. 1989 o.O.o.o.o.O. 1990 O.o.O.o.O.O. 1991 O.o.o.o.o.O. 1992 O.O.o.O.O.o. 1993 o.o.O.o.O.O. 1994 O.O.O.o.O.O. 1995 O.O.O.o.O.O. 1996 O.o.O.O.O.O. 1997 O.O.O.o.o.O. 1998 O.O.o.O.o.O. 1999 O.O.o.O.o. o. 2000 O.O.o.O.o.O. 2001 O.O.O.o.O.o. 2002 o.O.O.O.O.o. 2003 O.O.o.O.o.o. 2004 o.O.O.o.o.O. 2005 O.O.O.O.o.o. 2006 o.O.o.o.o. o. 2007 o.O.o.o.O.O. 2008 o.o.O.o.O.O. 2009 o.O.O.o.o.o. 2010 O.O.o.O.O.o. D-43 j 1 i I., I l i i ( Institute of S~cial J and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 .j 1 1 I I rJ 1 REPL6 REPL7 REPL8 REPL9 REPS1 REPS10 1983 O.O.o.O.0.055 O. 1984 O.O.O.O.0.055 O. 1985 O.O.o.O.0.055 O. , 1986 O.O.O.O.0.055 O. 1987 O.O.O.O.0.d55 O. 1988 O.O.O.O.0.055 O. 1989 O.O.O.O.0.055 O. 1990 O.O.O.O.0.055 O. 1991 O.O.O.O.0.055 O. 1992 O.O.O.O.0.055 O. 1993 O.O.O.O.0.055 O. 1994 O.O.O.O.0.055 O. 1995 O.O.O.O.0.055 O. 1996 O.O.o.O.0.055 O. 1997 O.O.o.O.0.055 O. 1998 O.O.O.O.0.055 O. 1999 O.O.O.O.0.055 O. 2000 --0:O.o...-..-.(r.0-.-65-5 ·0-;- 2001 O.O.O.O.0.055 O. 2002 O.O.O.O.0.055 O. 2003 O.O.O.O.0.055 O. 2004 O.O.O.O.0.055 O. 2005 O.O.O.O.0.055 O. . ....-~-"'--'--"'--'-'--_...--2006··0;--0;0;···0;·0;-055 0-;--- _._._--~~_._.,.__.------~--200-7------.----···--OT---~---·-·---0-.-·----··-·---0-.----0-.---·-0-r055------.--.---0_--.--"_.------_...•_-- 2008 O.O.O.O.0.055 O. 2009 O.O.O.O.0.055 O. 2010 O.O.o.O.0.055 O. 0-45 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 REPS3 REPS4 REPS5 REPS6 REPS7 REPS8 1983 0.055 O. O.0.04 0.1 O. 1984 0.055 O. O.0.04 0.1 O. 1985 0.055 O. O.0.04 0.1 O. 1986 0.055 O.O.0.04 0.1 O. 1987 0.055 O.O.0.04 0.1 O. 1988 0.055 ().O.0.04 0.1 O. 1989 0.055 O. O.0.04 0.1 O. 1990 0.055 O.O.0.04 0.1 O. 1991 0.055 O.O.0.04 0.1 O. 1992 0.055 O.O.0.04 0.1 O. 1993.0.055 O. O.0.04 0.1 O. 1994 0.055 O. O.0.04 0.1 O. 1995 0.055 O. O.0.04 0.1 O. 1996 0.055 O.O.0.04 0.1 O. 1997 0.055 O. O.0.04 0.1 O. 1998 0.055 O. O.0.04 0.1 O. 1999.0.055 O. O.0.04 0.1 O..~-~~._-~--_....._--~..~-~._._..__.- 2000 0.055 O. O.0.04 0.1 O. 2001 0.055 O.O.0.04 0.1 O. 2002 0.055 O.O.0.04 0.1 O. 2003 0.055 O.O.0.04 0~1 O~ 2004 0.055 O.O.0.04 0.1 O. 2005 0.055 O. O.0.04 0.1 O. 2006 .0;055 ····0;-...........0·;0;04·'·······0·;1·O~ --_._---_._._---_.._._--~·2007··--····0-;-055··----··-0-;-·_······....·····0·.·_···'··'·0-;-04····.·0-;-];-····...·0-._........ 2008 0.055 O. O.0.04 0.1 O. 2009 0.055 O. O.0.04 0.1 O. 2010 0.055 O.O.0.04 0.1 O. 0-46 ( :'.j '! ( ] ';I '1 1 .( i 1 1 1 /I .1 ! I I f Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 ) I REPS9 REPUI REPUIO REPUll REPU12 REPU13 1983 0.04 O.O.O.O.O. 1984 0.04 O.O.O.O.O. 1985 0.04 O.O.O.O.O. 1986 0.04 O.O.O.O.O. 1987 0.04 O.O. O.O.O. 1988 0.04 O.O.O.O.o. )1 1989 0.04 O.O.O.O.O. 1990 0.04 O.O.O.O.O. 1991 0.04 O. O. O.O.O. 1992 0.04 O.O.O.O.O. 1993 0.04 O.O.O.O.O. 1994 0.04 O.O.O.O.O. 1995 0.04 O.O.O.O.O. 1996 0.04 O.O.O.O.O. 1997 0.04 O.O.O. O.O. 1998 0.04 O.O.O.O.O. 1999 0.04 O.O.O.O.O. 2000 0.04 O.O.O.O.O. 2001 0.04 O.O.O.O.O. 2002 0.04 O.O. O. O.O. 2003 0.04 O.O.O.O.O. 2004 0.04 O.O.O.O.O. 2005 0.04 O.O.O.O.O. 2006 0.04 O.O.O.O.O. 2007 0.04 O.O.O.O.O. 2008 0.04 O.O.O.O.O. 2009 0.04 O.O.O.O.O. 2010 0.04 O.O.O.O.O. 0-47 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 REPU14 REPU15 REPU2 REPU3 REPU4 REPU5 1983 O.O.O.O.O.O. 1984 O.O.O.O.O.O. 1985 O.O.O.O.O.O. 1986 O.O.O.O.O.O. 1987 O.O.O.O.O.O. 1988 O.O.O.O.O.O. 1989 O.O.O.O.O.O. 1990 O.O.O.O.O.O. 1991 O.O. O.O.O.O. 1992 O.O.O.O.O.O. 1993 O.O.O.O. O.O. 1994 O.O.O.O.O.O. 1995 O. O.O.O.O.O. 1996 O.O.O.O.O.O. 1997 O.O.O.O.O.O. 1998 O.O.O.O.O.O. 1999 O.O.O.O.O.O. 2000 O. O. 2001 O.O.O.O.O.O. 2002 O.O.O. O.O.O. 2003 O.O.O.O.O.O. 2004 O.O.O.O.O.O. 2005 O.O.O.o.O.O. "~--------_.-"._--~---_._.__._-_.._-_..--200-7---------'0....------------0.----------0.----------0-.-------------0.--------0-.---.._--"--_.._..........._..._.__._- 2008 O.O.O.O.O.O. 2009 O.O.O.O.O.O. 2010 O.O.O.O~O.O. D-48 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 REPU6 REPU7 REPU8 REPU9 RLPTX RLTEB6 1983 O.O.0.02 O.O.10. 1984 O.O.0.02 O.O.O. 1985 O. O.0.02 O.O.O. 1986 O.O.0.02 O.O.O. 1987 O.O.0.02 O.O.O. 1988 O. O.0.02 O. O.O. 1989 O.O.0.02 O.O.O. 1990 O.O.0.02 O. O.O. 1991 O.O.0.02 O.O.O. 1992 O.O.0.02 O. O.O. 1993 O.O.0.02 O.O.O. 1994 O.O.0.02 O. O.O. )1995 O.O.0.02 O. O.O.I \ 1996 O.O.0.02 O. O.O. 1997 O. O.0.02 O.O.O. 1998 O.O.0.02 O. O.O. 1999 O. O.0.02 O. O.O. 2000 O.O.0.02 O.O.O. 2001 O.O.0.02 O.O.O. 2002 0'.O.0.02 O.O.O. 2003 O. O.0.02 O. O.O. 2004 O. O.0.02 O.O.O. 2005 O.O.0.02 O.O.O. 2006 O.O.0.02 O. O.O. 2007 O.O.0.02 O. O.O. 2008 O.O.0.02 O.O.O. 2009 O.O.0.02 O.O.O. 2010 O.O.0.02 O. O. o. I[l._, D-49 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 RLTFPX RLTMA6 RLTMCAP RLTRS6 RLTX RMISRES6 1983 O.71.333.3 56.O.34.797 1984 O.O.300.O.O.O. 1985 O.O.200.O.O.O. 1986 O.O.100.O.O.O. 1987 O.O. O.O.O.O. 1988 O. O. O.O.O. O. 1989 O.O.O.O.O.O. 1990 O.O.O.O.O.O. 1991 O.O. O.O.O.O. 1992 O.O. O.O.O.O. 1993 O.O.O.O.O. O. 1994 O.O. O. o.O.O. 1995 O.O.O.O.O.O. 1996 O.O.O.O.O. O. 1997 O.O. O.O.O.O. 1998 O.O.O.O.O.O. 1999 O.O.O. --_._._- O.O.2000 O.O.o.O. 2001 O.O.O.O.O.O. 2002 O.O.O.O.O.O. 2003 O.O~O.O.o.O. 2004 O.O. O.O.o.O. 2005 O.O.O.o.O.O. . ------------'----2OO-7--~-----------O.-----------------()-.---------------0-.----------0_;_----~-O_;_--0-.------ 2008 O.O.O.O.O.O. 2009 O.O.O.O.O.O. 2010 O.O.O.o.O.o. D-50 j 1 l I 1 1 j .! "J 1 l ( 1 i ! j '! I f Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 RNATX RPBS RPEN RPPS RPRY RPTS 1983 0.07 5.7 1984 0.07 7.9 1985 0.07 8. 1986 0.07 F 8.F F F 1987 0.07 R 8.R R R 1988 0.07 0 8.0 0 0 1989 0.07 M 8.M M M 1990 0.07 8. S S S S 1991 0.07 C 9.C C C 1992 0.07 E 9.E E E 1993 0.07 N 9.N N N 1994 0.07 A 9.A A A 1995 0.07 R 9.R R R I I I I 1996 0.07 0 10.0 0 0 1997 0.07 10. 1998 0.07 G 10.G G G 1999 0.07 E 10.E E E 2000 0.07 N 10.N N N E E E E 2001 0.07 R 11-R R R 2002 0.07 A 11-A A A 2003 0.07 T 11-T T T 2004 0.07 0 11-0 0 0 2005 0.07 R 11-R R R 2006 0.07 12. 2007 0.07 12. [I 2008 0.07 12. 2009 0.07 12.LJ 2010 0.07 12. \~J Ii 0-51 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 RP9X RSFDNCAX RSFDNPX RSFDNX RSFDN6 RSIG6 1983 O.20.438 23.O.184.917 266.3 1984 O.20.24.O.O.O. 1985 O.20.25.O.O.O. 1986 O.20.26.O.O.O. 1987 O.20.27.O.O.O. 1988 O.20.28.O.O.O. 1989 O.20.29.O. O.O. 1990 O.20.30.O. O.O. 1991 O.25.3l.O. O.O. 1992 O.25.32.O. O.O. 1993 O.25.33.O.O.O. i994 O.25.34.O.O.O. 1995 O.25.45.O.O.O. 1996 O.25.56.O.O.O. 1997 O.25.57.O.O.O. 1998 O.25.58.O.O.O. 1999 O.25.59.O.O.O•.~_._-----".- 2000 O.25.60.O.O.O. 2001 O.30.6l.O. O.O. 2002 O.30.62.O. O.O. 2003 O.30.63.O. O.O. 2004 O.30.64.O. O.O. 2005 O.30.65.O.O.O. 2000 -0:30-:--6-6;-··-0-;-----0;..-"'0-;-- ----_._----~.._..._------200']--_.__..__..._--~--~-_._.-O~-··----30-;---....-----6-7-,------0..---------0.----0-.-.__._.•._-_._--~._.__._----. 2008 O.30.68.O.O.O. 2009 O.30.69.O.O.O. 2010 O.30.70.O.O.O. D-52 j ·1 1 ] J ~1 ] -j I I ! I I J ,j .1 .1 ,( Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 RSIP5 RTCSPX RTCSX RTISXX RTOTS6 SANCSA 1983 255.O.O.25.6 O. 1984 188.O.O.23.4 O. 1985 O.O.O.O.O. 1986 O.F O.O.O.O. 1987 O.R O. O.O.O. 1988 O.0 O. O.O.o. I ......- I 1989 O.M O.O.O.O. [1990 O.O.O.O.O. S 1991 O.C O.O.O.O. 1992 O.E O.O.O.O. 1993 O.N O.O.O.O. 1994 O.A O.O.O.O. 1995 O.R O. O.O.O. I 1996 O.0 O.O.O.O. 1997 O.O.O.O.O. 1998 O.G O.O.O.O. 1999 O.E O.O.O.O. 2000 O.N O.O.o.O. E 2001 O.R O. O.o.O. 2002 O.A O. O.O.O. 2003 O.T O.O.O.O. 2004 O.0 o.o.o.O. 2005 O.R O.O.o.O. 2006 O.O.o.O.O. 2007 O.O.o.o.O. 2008 O.O.o.o.O. 2009 O.O.o.O.O. 2010 O.O.o.o.O. D-53 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 SANCSAX TCRED TOURIST TXBASE TXCRPC TXPTXX 1983 O.O.O.O.O. 1984 O.O.O.O.O. 1985 O.O.O.O.O. 1986 O.O.F O.O.O. 1987 O.O.R O.O.O. 1988 O.O.0 O.O.O. 1989 O.O.M O.O.O. 1990 O.O.O.O. O. S 1991 O.O.C O.O.O. 1992 O.O.E O.O.O. 1993 O.O.N O.O.O. 1994 O.O.A O.O.O. 1995 O.O.R O.O.O. I 1996 O.O.0 O.O.O. 1997 O.O.O.o.0; 1998 O.O.G O.O.O. .199~_.O.O.E 2000 O.O.N O.O.O. E 2001 o.O.R O.O.0; 2002 O.O.A O.o.O. 2003 O.O.T O.·'·0.O. 2004 O.O.0 o.o.O. 2005 O.o.R O.o.O. ·-2006-0;._,----'.-_._.,..,.'_...-····-o-~········-0.:--0-:-······-0; .-..-·---200-7~-------0-;--.--0-;------_."._~._-_._._--_..~----0-;····----0-;-·--------0-.-.--_..__..•..•.._--- 2008 O.O.O.O.O. 2009 O.O.o.o.O. 2010 O.O.o.O.O. D-54 j j j j ] ] 1 ] :.j j I j j I j 'j '.I I j Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 0-55 ,] J ,] J ] J " J 1 ,J ] J ] j ! ,J :,I ] .1 I Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984.Model A85.1 I J APPENDIX E ISER MAP ALASKA ECONOMIC MODEL: I ] STARTUP VALUES 11 ADMSD 1982 91.656 NA AEX 1982 0.4 NA AGI 1982 5500.NA ()AHG 1982 l.NA ATD 1982 800.NA [ ) ATI 1982 5000.NA ATI.TT 1982 10.NA ATT 1982 340.NA I] BALCAP84 1982 O.O. BALDF 1982 O.O. BALGFAFA 1982 -1417.5 -138.9 I]BALGFCP 1982 O.NA BALGFP 1982 O.NA BALGF9 1982 2668.6 2315.7 I]BALPF 1982 3212.8 4375. BAL99 1982 5881.4 6690.7 BAL99AFA 1982 1795.3 4236.1 BIU 1982 38.6 42.5 BL 1982 36.NA CEA9N 1982 0.034 NA CECMN 1982 0.012 NA CECNN 1982 0.072 NA I 1 CED9N 1982 0.12 NAiIIiCEFIN19820.015 NA CEGAN 1982 0.197 NA []CEGFN 1982 0.207 NA CEM9N 1982 0.093 NA IJ CEPUN 1982 0.018 NA CEP9N 1982 0.021 NA CES9N 1982 0.152 NA [j CET9N 1982 0.06 NA CNNPF1 1982 3.36 NA CNNPFIO 1982 10.475 NA 11 CNNPFll 1982 8.249 NA l CNNPF12 1982 5.845 NA SOURCE:Dset A85.1 E-1 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 CNNPF13 1982 5.282 NA CNNPF14 1982 3.387 NA CNNPF15 1982 5.264 NA CNNPF2 1982 11.405 NA CNNPF3 1982 13.5 NA CNNPF4 1982 12.091 NA CNNPF5 1982 12.71 NA CNNPF6 1982 20.05 NA CNNPF7 1982 20.021 NA CNNPF8 1982 18.981 NA CNNPF9 1982 14.083 NA CNNPM1 1982 3.6 NA CNNPM10 1982 13.206 NA CNNPM11 1982 10.267 NA CNNPM12 1982 7.372 NA CNNPM13 1982 6.324 NA CNNPM14 1982 4.514 NA CNNPM15 1982 5.31 NA CNNPM2 1982 12.225 NA CNNPM3 1982 14.215 NA CNNPM4 1982 12.856 NA CNNPMS 1982 14.595 NA CNNPM6 1982 18.533 NA CNNPM7 1982 21.764 NA CNNPM8 1982 21.186 NA CNNPM9 1982 16.103 NA COLA 1982 70.NA ·DEBTP83 ·1982 ··········-0.·······..O. ---------------_.._----"----_._----_..•_----------._--._--······-····-·--DF-;-RSVp··--1982·.-...-0;-·······-~-NK ~----._--- DPI 1982 6094.73 NA DPIRES 1982 74.548 NA DPI8 1982 6525.59 NA ELBD 1982 160.NA ELED 1982 -400.NA ELEDCP 1982 110.NA ELED1 1982 112.NA ELNED1 1982 600.NA ELPERS 1982 450.NA EL99 1982 1200.NA EMAFISH 1982 0.21 NA E-2 I 1 I I I I I .1 I ] 1 ·1 1 I I j 1 1 ] Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 [ J EMA9 1982 2.003 NA I 1 EMCM 1982 4.491 NA !I EMCN 1982 16.778 NA EMCNRT 1982 O.NA II EMCNX 1982 O.NA EMCN1 1982 16.778 NA EMDR 1982 30.341 NA ] EMDRNT 1982 28.041 NA EMDTOUR 1982 2.3 NA EMDW 1982 7.205 NA [1 EMD9 1982 37.546 NA EMF I 1982 9.054 NA !I EMGA 1982 40.901 NA EMGF 1982 39.744 NA I I EMGL 1982 22.906 NA EMGS 1982 17.995 NA EMMO 1982 2.832 NA EMM9 1982 12.656 NA EMPRO 1982 18.944 NA EMPROFIS 1982 7.5 NA EMPR01 1982 10.6 NA EMPU 1982 1.553 NA EMRATE 1982 0.498 NA EMRATN1 1982 0.17 NA EMSB 1982 6.894 NA EMSP 1982 100.613 NA EMS TOUR 1982 2.5 NA EMS UP 1982 82.293 NA EMS8NT 1982 25.362 NA EMS9 1982 35.693 NA EMS91 1982 34.756 NA U EMTCU 1982 18.32 NA EMTNT 1982 9.976 NA EMTOUR 1982 6.NA EMTTOUR 1982 1.2 NA IJ EMT9 1982 12.276 NA EMT91 1982 11.176 NA IJ EMX 1982 8.946 NA EM9INFR 1982 39.692 NA 1982 218.489 NA J E-3 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 EM97 1982 199.545 NA EM98 1982 221.648 NA EM99 1982 240.592 NA EXANSAV 1982 O.NA EXCAP 1982 944.515 1324.53 EXCAPFR 1982 o.NA EXCDS 1982 170.NA EXCDSNT 1982 55.NA EXCDS4 1982 170.NA EXCPS 1982 267.398 238.183 EXCPSFED 1982 105.021 110.491 EXCPSHY 1982 150.115 165.403 EXCPSM 1982 O.O. EXCPSNH 1982 117.283 72.78 EXC10 1982 o.NA EXC15 1982 O.NA EXC4 1982 o.NA EXC5 1982 O.NA EXC7 1982 O.NA EXDFCON 1982 o.NA "--"--------_..._.._------ EXDFWITH 1982 o.NA EXDSS 1982 102.325 143.624 EXEDS 1982 600.NA EXEDS4 1982 600.NA EXGF 1982 6852.71 NA EXGFBM 1982 6648.NA EXGFCHY 1982 140.017 202.041 -··EXGFCNH-----·--1982-·---343~1 --···-------2-76~-­ ·--····---·····--·····----~----EXGFGQT-··----198_2_---.-.-1-94-.------608-.3 05-- EXGGS 1982 120.NA EXGGS4 1982 120.NA EXHES 1982 130.NA EXHES4 1982 130.NA EXINREC 1982 216.396 217.197 EXINRECB 1982 72.636 136.995 EXJUS 1982 110.NA EXJUS4 1982 110.NA EXLIM 1982 o.o. EXLIMOK 1982 O.o. EXNOPS 1982 5141.89 NA E-4 j j I j I j ,j I I ) j j ) j ) J j I -j E-S E-6 1982 1.947 1982 424. 1982 148. 1982~22. 1982 10000. 1982 633.398 1982 406. 1982 1.262 1982 364.23 1982 288.6 1982 3.673 :l,9J~4 .If •(.tt.~ 1982 3.668----"---.._--_.--------_._----" 1982 3.062 1982 2.45 .I j I -) I I ill ) J I ] ) ) I -) .J j I I NA lilA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 366.938 NA NA NA NA NA 10000. Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 0.948 1.102 1.529 1.341 1.143 0.928 0.736 1.616 3.305 3.462 3.541 3.879 3.648 3.063 2.438 1.937 1.161 1.557 1.382 1.181 0.981 0.714 1.538 3.505 3.609 1982 1982 1982 1982 1982 1982 1982 1982 1982 1982 1982 1982 1982 1982 1982 1982 1982 1982 1982 1982 1982 1982 1982 1982 1982 MILPCT NATPF1 NATPF10 NATPFll NATPF12 NATPM13 NATPM14 NATPM15 NATPM2 NATPM3 NATPF9 NATPM1 NATPM10 NATPM11 NATPM12 NATPF13 NATPF14 NATPF15 NATPF2 NATPF3 NATPM9 NCCAP NCCI NCPI P.DPINN PDCON PDEXOPS PDRATIO PDRPI PDUSCPI NATPF4 NATPF5 NATPF6 NATPF7 ..NATPF8 NATPM4 NATPMS- -"...._"..__.--~---_._-.__...---_._-•..__...- NATPM6..~.~---~----_.._._.__._---------_..__.._--_._-_.._--------_.~---------_.._~--_...•- NATPM7 NATPM8 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 PI 1982 7384.34 NA PIDIR 1982 787.67 NA PIOLI 1982 411.624 NA PIPROF 1982 30.155 NA PIPR01 1982 172.819 NA PlRADJ 1982 430.85 NA PISSC 1982 362.139 NA PITRAN 1982 837.461 NA PITRAN1 1982 571.619 NA PI3 1982 7384.34 NA PI8 1982 7815.19 NA POP 1982 460.8 NA POPC 1982 438.7 NA POPGER 1982 13.744 NA POPM 1982 2-2.1 NA POPMIG 1982 18.317 NA POPNE 1982 74.775 NA POPSKUL 1982 110.851 NA PR.BALCP 1982 1400.NA PR.DPINN 1982 4308.4200. PR.DPIUS 1982 3248.44 NA PR.PI 1982 4399.7 NA PR.PI3 1982 4399.7 NA R.BALCAP 1982 600.NA R.CAP1 1982 3000.NA R.CAP10 1982 271.NA R.CAPll 1982 O.NA R.CAP12 1982 O.NA R.CAP13 1982 O.NA R.CAP14 1982 O.NA R.CAP15 1982 764.NA R.CAP2 1982 333.NA R.CAP3 1982 250.NA R.CAP4 1982 O.NA [J R.CAP5 1982 3097.NA R.CAP6 1982 963.NA R.CAP7 1982 677.NA II R.CAP8 1982 O.NA R.CAP9 1982 O.NA R.DPI 1982 1673.32 NA E-7 R.DPI8N R.DPI8X R.WR97 RLMC RLOT RLPT1 RLTCS RLTCS4 RLTEB RLTEB4 RLTEF4 RLTEO RLTE04 RLTET ..:RLTET4 RLTE99 RLTE994 RLTF RLTMA RLT,MA4 RLTMS RLTRS RLTRS4 RLTT9 RLTT94 RLTVS4 RLT99 ·······RMIS ...-----.--~------~-~--.·------RMISRES ROFAS ROFERS ROFOS RSFDN ··RSFFS RSFS1 RSGF RSGFBM RSIAS RSIP RSIPGF Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 1982 1791.61 NA 1982 o.NA 1982 7594.36 NA 1982 340.NA 1982 52.NA 1982 200.NA 1982 o.NA 1982 o.NA 1982 10.NA 1982 10.NA 1982 340.826 415.211 1982 71.536 93.262 1982 71.536 93.262 1982 18.814 19.98 1982 18.814 19.98 1982 300.NA 1982 300.NA 1982 80.NA 1982 87.9 NA 1982 87.9 NA 1982 50.NA 1982 55.603 NA 1982 55.603 NA 1982 95.757 NA 1982 95.757 NA 1982 1.182 NA 1982 450.NA 1982 ......·--2<J~.·38-;2 --1982 ---··~---]:o;739--~---3tr;··797-..... 1982 11.NA 1982 20.8. 1982 8.NA 1982 187.968 184.917 1982 4.516 ·6.329 1982 3.297 2.821 1982 4313.1 3850.71 1982 4108.4 3631. 1982 31.12 30.969 1982 317.471. 1982 71.1 109.5 E-8 .1 1 j I ] j LJ ,] ] I 1 'I 1 I I 1 J J I E-9 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A8S.1 ) ] I I 1 I 1 I I l' j I I I J -j 1 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A85.1 WRS9 1982 21347.6 NA WRT9 1982 32682.7 NA WR98 1982 26788.4 NA WSCN 1982 791.496 NA WSCNP 1982 o.NA -!WSGA 1982 1204.23 NA WSGC 1982 427.727 NA 'i WSGL 1982 649.748 NA WSGM 1982 418.005 NA WSGS 1982 554.478 NA WSGSFY 1982 575.NA WS97 1982 5519.6 NA WS98 1982 5937.61 NA XXA9 1982 93.938 NA XXCM 1982 .208.529 NA XXCN 1982 188.342 NA XXCNI 1982 188.342 NA XXCN8 1982 152.251 NA XXDR 1982 254.556 NA XXDRNT 1982 290.016 NA XXDW 1982 133.766 NA XXD9 1982 388.323 NA XXFI 1982 388.745 NA XXGA 1982 344.316 NA XXGF 1982 402.274 NA XXMO 1982 50.498 NA XXMX2 1982 223.407 NA.3 NA -"-"----~--_..__._----_.__..__._---~_.•._-----_.._----···-·····-···--·--······-------XXp-9-··--·-T9-8-2--·-··-nT9-;-9-5-----···NA .__.._-_.__.._-_...__._----_.__.__.__._,._--_._-~_._.--- XXSB 1982 77 .31 NA XXS8NT 1982 240.727 NA XXS9 1982 350.98 NA XXTNT 1982 177.919 NA XXT9 1982 -218.939 ·····NA .....XXVHY 1982 ..116.5 .....NA XXVNHY 1982 112.1 NA XX98 1982 4530.97 NA E-10 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Hodel AS5.1 APPENDIX F ISER MAP ALASKA ECONOMIC MODEL: VARIABLE AND PARAMETER DICTIONARY II [] Variable ADHDIS ADHREA AOHSD AEX AFTOT AGI AHG ANCSA Definition;Units average daily membership in district schools;thousand average daily membership in REAA schools;thousand ' average daily membership in district and REAA school thousand Alaskan personal income tax exemptions;million $ total armed forces personnel in 1980 gross income reported on Alaskan state personal income tax returns;million $ Alaskan highway gasoline consumption per vehicle; gallons payment to Alaska Natives by federal and state government under Alaska Native Claims Settlement Act;mi 11 ion $ Historical Data Sourcea ADE,Annual Report ADE,Annual Report ADE,Annual Report Constructed from IRS,Statistics of Income,ADL,Statistical Quarterly and unpublished data, and 1970 U.S.Census Alaska Air Command and Kruse, Design and Implementation of Alaska,1980 Reapportionment Data Collection Effort Constructed from IRS,Statistics of Income,ADL,Statistical Quarterly and unpublished data, and 1970 U.S.Census Constructed from Alaska Native Land Claims,Arnold and BEA personal income data [1 lJ aNo entry indicates either a constructed variable or no historical data available. Data Source Abbreviations: ADA -Alaska Department of Administration ADC -Alaska Department of Commerce and Economic Development ADCR -Alaska Department of Community and Regional Affairs ADE -Alaska Department of Education ADL -Alaska Department of Labor ADPW -Alaska Department of Transportation and Public Facilities ADR -Alaska Department of Revenue BEA U.S.Department of Coomeree,Bureau of Ecofiooti-e-Afi;naa.:ll-\y~s+l~S------------------- BOG -U.S.Department of Commerce,Bureau of census IRS -U.S.Department of Treasury,Internal Revenue Service F-l Variable APGF APGFCAP APGFOPS oefinitionj Units state general fund appropriations;million $ state general fund capital appropriations (not including subsidies);million $ state general fund operating appropriations (not including debt service);!million $ Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation oecember 1984.Mode 1 ASS.1 Historical Data Sourcea APPFCONX r.. state general fund appropriat~ons to the Penmanent Fund;million $ . ATD AT! ATI.TT Alaska personal income tax deductions;million $ . Alaska state personal income tax taxable income; million $ Alaska state taxable personal income per taxpayer;thousand $ Constructed from IRS.Statistics of Income.ADL Statistical Quarterly and unpublished data. and 1970 U.S.census Constructed from IRS.Statistics of Income.ADL Statistical Quarterly and unpUblished data. and 1970 U.S.census ~'l l I ! BAL99 combined state fund balanc~s;RlUlloI1J BADD birth adjustment factor to account for birth of Native children to non-Native women ATT Alaska state personal income tax returns - individual plus joint returns;thousand I [ I I 1 r I I I constructed from IRS Statistics of Income and ADL Statistical Quarterly I\[)I\.Annua 1 F1nand a1 Report unrestricted general fund revenues minus unrestricted general fund expenditures state general fund revenues minus general fund expenditures;million $ development fund balance;million $ net additions to the state capital stock put in place after 1983.inflated to current dollar value;million $ BALCAB BALCABGF BALCAP84 BALDF SAf9-9AF7C---coobi ned state funCfba 1an-ceiavaflable for appropriations;million $ F-2 variable BALDF6 BALGF6 BALGF9 BALGFAFA BALGFCP I ) r I BALGFP BALGFUNA II BALLANDS I BALOCAL BALPF BALPF6 BASEMCNX BASEPOP BAS EXCAP BASEXGF Definitioni Units initial state development fund (hypothetical) balance;million $ initial state general fund balance;million $ total state general fund balance;million $ state general fund balance (available for appropriations);million $ positive change in general fund balance from year to year (if change negative,this takes zero value); mi 11 ion $ state general .fund balance if positive;if state general fund balance negative,then zero;million $ state general fund balance unavailable for appro- priation;million $ state plus local government current account balance; mi 11 ion $ local government revenues minus nondebt financed expendituresi million $ Permanent Fund balancei million $ initial state Permanent Fund balance; mi 11 ion $ a base case vector of EMCNX values used for fiscal impact analysis in conjunction with fiscal policy variable EXRL4 a base case vector of POP values used for fiscal impact analysis in conjunction with fiscal policy variable EXRL4 a base case vector of EXCAP values used for fiscal impact analysis in conjunction with fiscal policy variable EXRL4 base case expenditure value to be placed in impact run to calculate difference in state expenditures in real per capita terms F-3 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation Decetrber 1984,Mode 1 ASS.1 Historical Data Sourcea ADA.Annual Financial Report ADA.Annual Financial Report '; ADA,Annual Financial Report ADA.Annual Financial Report Variable BASEXOPS BASPDRPI BCRUDE BIU BIU6 BL BTHTOT BTOT ....Ck**... CBR CDR CEabN CHHij -~------~-------~_. CNNPij CNNTOT COLA CPGQij Cij Definition;Units a base case vector of EXOPS values used for fiscal impact analysis in conjunction with fiscal policy variable EXRL4 base case value of RPI to be input into impact run to calculate difference in state expenditures in real per capita tenms Alaska crude civilian birth rate the Basic Instructional unit for School Foundation distribution program;thousand $ initial value of Basic Instructional Unit for School Foundation distribution program;thousand $ Alaska business licenses issued;thousand total Alaska civilian non-Native births to civilian population total Alaska civilian births;thousand .·stochastkcoeff'lci ent· Alaska crude civilian non-Native birth rate Alaska crude civilian non-Native death rate proportion of Native employment in sector ab Alaska households headed by civilian non- ....Nat i vepersonsin·cohort Tr~·-·---- Alaska civilian non-Native population in cohort 1j total Alaska civilian non-Native population federal cost of 11"ing adjustment forA1asICa state personal income tax purposes;million $ fraction of civilian non-Native population in cohort ij in group quarters Alaska civilian non-Native population in cohort ij before migration F-4 Institute of Social and Economic Research HAP Documentation Decenber 1984.Model ASS.1 Historical Data Sourcea ADE.Annual Report ADR.unpub 11 shed data 1970 u.S.Census.Alaska public use samples ...........COnstructed froof ADL Statlsti cal· Quarterly andPCOLART BOC.1980 Census Tape STF2B .1 ) ! ( ( ! ·1 Variable D.80DEC6 DCRUDE DEBTP83 DELEHP DF.*k* DFP.*k* DF.RSVP DPI Def1n1t1on;Un1ts dunmy vari ab 1e wi th value of 1 for year or period of years 1ndicated;un1ts dunmy var1ab1e w1th value of one in 1980 taper1ng off to zero 1n 6 years,ref1ect1ng the fact that Alaskan wage rates are "st1cky downward" Alaska crude c1vi11an death rate sum of general obligation bonded debt 1ncurred by the state after 1983;mil110n $ annual change in c1vi1ian employment (EH96); thousand var1ab1e deflated to 1984 dollars (PDRPIBAS is base year 1ndex); var1ab1e deflated to .1984 per cap1ta dollars cumulat1ve d1scounted value of petroleum revenues received from 1984;mil110n 1984 $ Alaska d1sposable personal 1ncome;million $ Institute of Soc1a1 and Economic Research HAP Documentation Decerrber 1984,Mode 1 AS5.1 Historical Data Sourcea BEA disposable personal 1ncome data &ADA,Annual F1nancial Report DPI8 Alaska d1sposab1e personal 1ncome plus res1dency adjustment;million $ DPIRES total nonfedera1,nonstate personal 1ncome tax payments paid out of Alaskan personal ,income for purposes of calculating disposable J personal income;mil110n $ DTHINF Alaska 1nfant civilian non-Native deaths DTHTOT total Alaska civ11ian non-Native deaths DTOT total Alaska c1vi11an deaths EL99 total local government expend1tures;mil110n $ ElBD local government debt service;mill10n $ ELED local government education expenditures;m1l1ion $ F-5 BEA d1sposab1e personal 1ncome data &ADA,Annual Financial Report BEA,disposable personal 1ncome data BOC,Governmental F1nances BOC,Governmental Finances Variable ElEDl Definition;Units local government education expenditures from own sources;million $ Institute of Social and Economic Research HAP Documentation December 1984.Model ASS.1 Historical Data Sourcea Constructed from ADA.Executive Budget and BOG.State Government Finances } ! II ELEDCP local government education expenditures for capital outlays;million $ BOC.Governmental Finances ElNEDl local government non-education expenditures net of debt service;million $ BOC.Governmental Finances ELPERS local government personal services expenditures; million $ BOC.Governmental Finances EH.EHCN ratio of construction to total employment EH.EHG9 ratio of total government to total employment I EM.EHGA EH.EHGF EM.EHNR ratio of state and local government to total employment ratio of federal government to total employment ratio of total minus support type (SP). ~~\f~IlIIleIl:t.construct i ()!'.i!nd petroleum employment to total employment ratio of mining to total employment ratio of total minus support type (SP)and government to total employment EH.EMSP EH.EMP9 EH.EHNS ratio of service type (T9.CM.PU.09.Fl.S9)....-----------to total employment -. EM.EHSUP ratio of trade.finance.and service to total employment .EH.EMTCU ratio of transport.communication.and public utilities to total employment EM96 total wage and salary plus proprietor employment; thousand EM97 nonagricultural wage &salary employment; thousand ADL.Alaska Labor Force Estimates and Statistical Quarterly EM98 wage and salary and military employment;thousand F-6 11 Variable EH99 EH9BASE EH9GOV EM9INFR EH9SUPRT EHab EHAFISH EMAGRI EMAUN EHCNl EHCNRT EHCNX EHCNXl EHCNX2 EHCU EHOR EHDW EHORNT Definitionj Units total wage and salary,nonwage and salary (proprietor),and military employment;thousand basic employment;thousand state and local government employment;thousand infrastructure employment;thousand support employment;thousand employment by industry;ab=CM CN 09 FI PU GS GL H9 S9 T9 A9 GM GC P9;thousand wage and salary component of fish harvesting employment;thousand wage and salary component of agriculture employment;thousand forestr~and unclassified employment;thousand construction employment net of exogenous construction employment;thousand ratio of premium wage construction employment to EM98 net of premium wage construction employment.Employed as a measure of labor market "tightness";percent exogenous construction employment;thousand "enclave"high (premium)wage exogenous construction employment;thousand non-"enclave"low (normal)wage exogenous construction employment;thousand communications plus public utilities employment;thousand employment in retail trade;thousand employment in wholesale trade;thousand employment in retail trade net of touri F-7 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model ASS.1 Historical Data Sourcea ADL.Statistical Quarterly ADL,Statistical Quarterly ADL,Statistical Quarterly constructed from ADL,unpublished worksheets ADL,Statistical Quarterly ADL,Statistical Quarterly Institute of SOcia1l and Economic Research MAP Documentation Decent>er 1984.Model ASS.1 I Variable EMDTOUR EMFISH Definition;units tourism employment in trade sector;thousand fish harvesting employment;thousand Historical Data Sourcea Lmprovements to Specification of the MAP Model G.Rogers.Measuring the Socio- economic Impact of Alaska's Fisheries -I I 1 EMG9 federal.state.and local government employment;thousand EMGA state and local government employment;thousand EMGC federal civilian employment;thousand ADl.Statistical Quarterly EMGF federal civilian and military employment;thousand EMGl local government employment;thousand EMGM military employment;thousand EMGS state government employment;thousand EMMa employment in endogenous manufacturing; thousand EMMX1 high (premium)wage exogenous manufacturing employment;thousand ADl.Statistical Quarterly ADl ADl.Statistical Quarterly ADl.Statistical Quarterly EMNA Native employment;thousand EMMX2 low wage exogenous manufacturing employment; thousand -------------EMNAT---------Native-emplo:Jrnent-obtatned-from-the--income----- distribution model;thousand EMNATX EMNC Native employment obtained from the income distribution model;thousand Native COrporation direct employment;thousand ADl.Statistical Quarterly 1 ( ,( i EMNNC total ci vili an non ""Nat i ve employment;thousand EMNR total employment minus support type (SP). government.construction.and mining; thousand F-8 1 Variable EHNS EHOCSX EHP9 EHPRO EHPROFIS Definition;Units total employment minus support type (SP)and government s~of mining.exogenous construction. exogenous transportation.and high wage exogenous manufacturing employment; thousand mining employment;thousand total proprietor employment;thousand fish harvesting proprietor employment; thousand Institute of Social and Economic Research HAP Documentation December 1984.Hodel ASS.1 Historical Data Sourcea AOl.Statistical Quarterly BEA employment data DOL,Statistical Quarterly;BEA employment data;and G.Rogers. Measuring the socioeconomic Impact of Alaska's Fisheries [] EHPR01 proprietor employment net of fish harvesting; thousand EHRATE ratio of wage and salary plus proprietor employment to civilian population EHRATN Native employment rate based on Native enrollments; percent EHRATNl interim calculation of Native employment rate; percent EHS8NT employment in support services (net of business. tourism.and Native claims);thousand EMS91 service sector employment net of direct Native Corporation employment;thousand EHSB business service employment;thousand EMSP transport.communication.public utility.trade. finance.and service employment;thousand EHSTOUR tourism employment in service sector;thousand J EMSUP trade.finance.and service employment;thousand i EHT91 transportation employment net of exogenousJ ~nt;thousand F~ ADl.Statistical Quarterly Improvements to Specification of the HAP Hodel variable Definition;Units Institute of Social and Economic Research HAP Documentation December 1984.Model ASS.1 Historical Data Source a j EMT9X exogenous (large pipeline project-related) transportation employment;thousand EMTCU transport.communication.and public utility employment;thousand EMTNT employment in transportation net of tourism and exogenous components;thousand EMTOUR EMTTOUR EMX EX.DSS EX.NRP9 EX.R99S EX.RP9S EX.RSIN total tourism employment;thousand transportation-related tourism employment; thousand extractive industries-related employment consisting of mining and exogenous construction;thousand ratio of debt service expenditures to total state general fund expenditures ratio of state nonpetro1eum revenues to .tQ1;~l ~1;~1;~g~nera1 fun<:i.ex~efldiJllr~s ratio of general fund plus Pennanent Fund revenues to total state general fund expenditures ratio of petroleum revenues to total state general fund expenditures .··ratio ciTendogenolJS rel/enties ···"····-state·genera·1-·fund~expenditures· ratio of total fund earnings to total state general fund expenditures Lmprovements to Specification of the HAP Model ]mprovements to Specification of the HAP Model ] .J .! ! EX99S EXANNU EXANSAV total state government expenditures from all funds--capita1 and operating;million $ if EXRLOPS-is-in·effect in the state operating expenditure equation.the base amount of the annuity which adds to state operating expenditures;$ amount of state government saving when using fiscal rule option EXRLOP8;million $ F-l0 I I j I "t Variable EXBM.CAB EXBM.END EXBM.FD EXBM.GR1 EXBM.RV EXBUD Definitioni Units ratio of general fund current account balance (BALCABBM)to unrestricted general fund expenditures ratio of development fund withdrawals (EXDFWITH) to unrestricted general fund expenditures ratio of total fund balance (BAL99)to unrestricted general fund expenditures ratio of revenues net of petroleum (RSGFBM+ EXPFCON1-RP9S)to unrestricted general fund expenditures ratio of general fund unrestricted revenues to unrestricted general fund expenditures state operating expenditures as defined in the budget;million $ Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984.Model .A85.1 Historical Data Sourcea ADA.Executive Budget EXca state capital expenditures of type a;million $ EXCAP total state capital expenditures;million $ EXCAPFR EXCAPIMP EXCAPNEW EXCAPOLD EXCAPOT EXCAPREP capital expenditures for ferries--assumed to be purchases out of state;million $ per capita impact state capital expenditures used with fiscal rule EXRL4 new additions to state capital stock in a given year;million $ state spending to replace capital stock put in place prior to 1984 state capital expenditures for nontraditional items;million $ capital expenditures necessary to replace state capital stock which depreciates F-ll ADPW unpublished data Goldsmith and Mogford.The Relationship Between the Alaska Natural Gas Pipeline and State and Local Govern- ment Expenditures ADA.Annual Financial Report variable EXCDS EXCDS4 EXCDSNT Definitionj Units state development operating expenditures net of debt service;million $ initial ~del estimate of state development operating expenditures net of debt service before application of RATI01;million $ development component of the state operating budget net of transfers to local government; million $ Institute of Social and Economic Research HAP Documentation Decenber 1984.Model ASS.1 Historical Data Sourcea ADA.Executive BUdget I 1 I I j \ EXCNa state capital expenditures on new capital type a; mi 11 ion $ EXCPS construction expenditures from state capital project funds;million $ ADA.Annual Financial Report EXCPSFED portion of capital project fund revenues from federal capital grants;million $ ADA.Annual Financial Report EXCPSFD6 initial values for portion of capital project fund revenues from federal capital grants;million $ ADA.Annual Financial Report EXCPSGOB portion of capital project fund,.evenues franbon-cf sa res;-iiill Hon $..--ADA LAnnua 1 Fi nand a1 Report ! .(ADA.Annual Financial Report ADA.Annual Financial Report in iti a1 val ue for EXCPSGOB;mi Hi on $ highway construction expenditures out of state capital project construction funds;million $ EXCPSHY EXCPSM EXCPSGB6 portion of capital project fund revenues from .-----.--·-bond·sal es--(used·-tocalculatebondmatu rati on); EXCPSNH nonhighway construction expenditure out of state capital project construction funds; mi 11 ion $ ADA.Annual Financial Report EXCRba state capital expenditures on replacement of capital stock type a from funding source b; --··lIInn olllcc _.c._ EXDFl percent of state current account balance placed into development fund (hypothetical);percent EXDFCON development fund contribution;million $ F-12 I' i II, Variable EXDFPCNT EXDFWITH EXDSS EXDSSX EXEDS EXEDS4 EXEDSNT EXELl EXEL2 EXEL3 EXEL4 EXEL5 EXEL6 EXGF EXGF.AFR Definition;Units percent of development fund earnings withdrawn; percent development fund withdrawals;million $ annual debt service payment to service general obligation bonded debt of the state; mill ion $ annual debt service payment to service general obligation bonds outstanding at beginning of simulation period;million $ state education operating expenditures net of debt service;million $ state education operating expenditure net of debt service before application of RATI01;million $ state education operating expenditures net of transfers to local government;million $ elasticity of state expenditures with respect to population elasticity of state expenditures with respect to prices elasticity of state expenditures with respect to real per capita personal income elasticity of state expenditures with respect to personal income elasticity of state expenditures to personal income net of "enclave"employment-related income (PI3) elasticity of state expenditures to population net of "enclave"construction employment state general fund expenditures;million $ state general fund expenditures;million $ Institute of Social and Economic Research HAP Documentation Decenber 1984,Mode 1 AS5.1 Historical Data Sourcea ADA,Annual Financial Report ADA,Annual Financial Report ADA,Executive Budget ADA,Annual Financial Report ADA,Annual Financial Report EXGFBM state unrestricted general fund expenditures; ---------trnH-l-ton-n-$$------------------------------- F-13 Variable EXGFCAP EXGFCAP1 EXGFCAP6 EXGFCHY EXGFCNH EXGFCOT EXGFCOT6 EXGFOPS EXGFOPSX EXGFOLA .EXGGS Definitionj Units state general fund capital out1ays-actua1 disbursements;million $ state general fund capital expenditures.for traditional capital items;million $ initial value for EXGFCAP;million $ state general fund capital expenditures for highways;million $ state general fund capital expenditures nonhighways; mi 11 ion $ state general fund capital expenditures for non- traditional items;million $ initial value for EXGFCOT;million $ state unrestricted general fund operating expenditures;million $ exogenous component of state unrestricted general fund operatingexpendltures;million $ state general fund operating expenditures net of extraordinary items;million $ state general government operating expenditures net of debt service;million $ Institute of Social and Economic Research HAP Documentation December 1984.Mode 1 ASS.1 Historical Data Sourcea ADA.Annual Financial Report ADA.Annual Financial Report ADA.Annual Financial Report ADA.Annual Financial Report ADA.Annual Financial Report ADA.Annua 1 Fi nand a1 Report ADA.Executive BUdget I EXHES EXHES4 EXHYCAP EXINREC EXINRECB EXJUS lojtjglJ1!Qt:lgL~!)t lmat~(>.f stc3._!~g~Il~I"c3.1 g()v~r~!l1,: operating expenditures net of debt service before application of RATI01 ;mi 1110n-r--..~~---__. state health operating expenditures net of debt service;million $ state health operating expenditures net of debt service before app1 ication of RATI01;milHon$ state·c:apltci1 expenditures for highways;mfllion$ state government interagency receipts;million $ state government interagency recei pts;mi 11i on $ state administration of justice operating expenditures net of debt service;million $ F-14 ADA.Executive BUdget ADA.Annual Financial Report ADA.Executive Budget ADA.Executive Budget Variable EXJUS4 EXLIH EXLIM82 EXLIHOK EXNHYCP 11 EXNOPS EXNRS EXNRS4 EX0M84 EXOHba EXOHCOST EXOPS Definition;Units state administration of justice operating expenditures net of debt service before application of RATI01;million $ state expenditures allowed by constitutionally mandated spending limit;million $ constitutionally mandated 1982 state spending limit;million $ actual state expenditures which can be supported by revenues and general fund balance under constitutionally mandated spending limit;million $ state capital expenditures for nonhighway projects; mill10n $ state expenditures--total net of the operating budget;million $ state natural resource operating expenditures net of debt service;million $ state natural resource operating expenditures net of debt service before application of RATI01; million $ annual operations and maintenance cost associated with incremental state capital stock put in place in 1984 and succeeding years;million $ operating expenditures on operations and main- tenance of capital stock type a from funding source b;million $ annual operations and maintenance cost of incremental state capital stock (EX0M84) as a percentage of original cost;percent total state operating expenditures net of debt service and University of Alaska nongeneral fund assistance.It is the sum of the nine functional categories;million $ Institute of Social and Economic Research HAP Documentation Decenber 1984,Hodel ASS.1 Historical Data Sourcea ADA,Executive Budget ADA,Executive Budget EXOPS6 initial total state operating expenditures --------------------------~n~et&-€o~f_edebt service and University of Alaska nongeneral fund assistance.It is the sum of the nine functional categories;million $ F-IS ADA,Executive Budget EXPFCON total additions to Permanent Fund. including special appropriations and .-.------··-earnings-aftertl"ansfer-s-out;milUon~$~:~~.._-~_.-.~.-..-.-~--~--~.~-- ._.E_XP_F_CO_N9 total gross additions to Permanent Fund.ncl ngspecialappropriationsandearningsbefore--·-----·-.-.--_.---.--.-------....---.---..-.--------..-.-- transfers out;million $ Variable EXOPSIMP EXPFl EXPF2 EXPF3 EXPFTOGF EXPFCONl EXPFCONX EXPFDIST EXPFDVXl EXPFOVX2 Definition;Units per capita impact state operation expenditure used with fiscal rule EXRL4 percent contribution from available funds to Permanent Fund;percent portion of Permanent Fund dividend income not entering purchasing power expression;percent portion of Permanent Fund dividend income not SUbject to personal income tax;percent percent of Permanent Fund earnings transferred to the general fund (based on earnings net of dividends);percentage contributions to the Permanent Fund.not including special appropriations or earnings transferred to general fund;million $ special Permanent Fund contributions appropriated from the general fund;million $ percent of Permanent Fund earnings distributed to individuals;percent accounting adjustment to Permanent Fund retained earnings in early years;mUllon $ accounting adjustment to Permanent Fund dividend program in early years;million $ F-16 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984.Mode 1 ASS.1 Historical Data Sourcea Goldsmith and Mogford.The Relationship Between the Alaska Natural Gas Pipeline and State and Local Government Expenditures Knapp et al .•The Permanent Fund Dividend Program:Economic Effects and Public Attitudes Knapp et al ••The Permanent Fund Dividend Program:Economic Effects and Public Attitudes ADR.The Alaska Permanent Fund:Overview and March 1984 Pro F~ctr6ns ADR.The Alaska Permanent Fund:Overview and March 1984 Projections ] I -! j I J ! 1 [ ! I I 1 j Variable EXPPS EXPPS4 EXPR99 EXPRCDS EXPREDSl EXPRGGS EXPRHES EXPRJUS EXPRNRS EXPRPPS EXPRSSS EXPRTRS EXPRUA I j EXRLl IJ EXRL2 Definition;units state public protection operating expenditures net of debt service;million $ state public protection operating expenditures net of debt service before application of RATI01; mi 11 ion $ total state personnel expenditures;million $ state personnel expenditures for development; mi 11 ion $ state personnel expenditures for education net of University of Alaska;million $ state personnel expenditures for general government;million $ state personnel expenditures for health;million $ state personnel expenditures for administration of justice;million $ state personnel expenditures for natural resources; mi 11 ion $ state personnel expenditures for pUblic protection; mi 11 ion $ state personnel expenditures for social services; mi 11 ion $ state personnel expenditures for transportation; mi 11 ion $ wages and salaries of University of Alaska; mi 11 ion $ policy switch which.if set at 1.determines state operating expenditure growth based primarily upon aggregate demand; policy switch which.if set at 1.determines state operating expenditure growth based upon exogenous growth rate F-17 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984.Model ASS.1 Historical Data Sourcea ADA.Executive Budget ADA.Executive Budget ADA.Executive Budget ADA.Executive Budget ADA.Executive Budget ADA.Executive Budget ADA.Executive Budget ADA.Executive BUdget ADA.Executive Budget ADA.Executive Budget ADA.Executive Budget constructed from University of Alaska records and ADL data Variable EXRL3 EXRL4 EXRL40P Definition;Units policy switch which,if set at 1,detennines state expenditure growth based upon real per capita operating expenditure levels and real per capita capital stock levels policy switch which,if set at 1,detennines state expenditure growth based upon a specified expenditure level per impact individual (for use in impact analysis) policy switch used with EXRL4 with value of one if enclave construction employment not counted in impact population Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation Decenber 1984,Mode 1 ASS.1 Historical Data Sourcea J I I j ! 1 EXRLS policy switch which,if set at 1,detennines state expenditure growth based upon constitutionally imposed spending limit EXRLOP6 po Hey switch wh i ch ,if set at 1,detenni nes state operating expenditure growth based upon annual change in level of general fund balance EXRLOP7 policy switch which,if set at 1,detennines .__~tat~Q~~ratillg expenditures growth based upon saving a specifiedaroolJnt ofrevenlJes ... EXRLOP8 poH cyswitch which,if set at l,detenni nes state operating expenditure growth based upon spending an annuity (EXANSAV) EXRP84 annual cost for replacement of capital stock put in place after 1983;million $ ···~---EXSAVS---i-f··EXRtOP7-ts-tnvoked-in-determination.of-state----.------..·-·-- operating expenditures,this is the amount of revenues not spent;million $ j j j I EXSAVX EXSPCAP EXSPLIT if EXRLOP7 is invoked in detennination of state operating expenditures,this is the exogenous amount of revenues not spent; mi 11 ion $ special state capital appropriations;million $ the allocation to operations when state spending falls below the authorized spending limit;percent F-18 Variable EXSPlITX EXSSS EXSSS4 Definition;units the target allocation to operations when state spending falls below the authorized spending limit;percent state social services operating expenditures net of debt service;million $ state social services operating expenditures net of debt service before application of RATI01; million $ stimulative effect of state subsidies on construction industry;percent stimulative effect of state subsidies on consumer spending;percent state subsidy programs initiated after 1980; mi 11 ion $ state subsidy programs initiated after 1980. set exogenously;million $ state Permanent Fund dividend distribution; million $ state Permanent Fund dividends in 1982 and 1983 incorporated in state personal income;million $ state Permanent Fund dividend distribution funded through the general fund;million $ state transportation operating expenditures net of debt service;million $ state transportation operating expenditures net of debt service before application of RATI01; mi 11 ion $ University of Alaska operating budget;million $ initial value for University of Alaska operating budget;million $ federal adjusted gross income earned in Alaska; F-19 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation Decenber 1984.Model ASS.1 Historical Data Sourcea ADA.Executive Budget ADA.Executive Budget ADA.Executive Budget ADA.Executive Budget Constructed from IRS.Statistics of Income and ADl Statistical ,.iInstituteofSocial and Economic Research HAP Documentation Decent>er 1984,Model ASS.1 !j 'I I 1 Historical Data Sourcea IRS Statistics of Income Alaska Department of Health and Social Services and Alaska Native Medical center Definition;units non-Native fertility rate for female cohort j federal adjusted gross income reported on federal tax returns filed from Alaska;million $ Variable FAG II FERTj G.**annual grOWth rate of variable ** GOBONDL general obligation bonded indebtedness of local government;million $ ADCR.Alaska Taxable GODT general obligation bonded indebtedness of state; million $ ADA,Annual Financial Report GODTX GR .GRDIRPU GREXCAP GREXOPS GRRPCEX general obligation bonded indebtedness of the state from debt incurred before start of simulation;million $ gross business receipts;million $ annual growth rate of u.s.real disposable personal income per capita;percent nominal growth rate of state capital expenditures using EXRL2 nominal growth rate of state operating expenditures using EXRL2 growth rate of real per capita state expenditures ADA.Annual Financial Report ADA.Annual Financial Report .~ j 1 I ! F-20 gross taxable receipts;million $ shift factor for aging of cohorts .I I j I I j Constructed from ADA,Annual Financial Report and ADR unpUblished data yannualrealgrowthrate earnings;percent anllualgrciWthrate of U.S.COnSUmEH'"pricei ndex;'".. percent growth rate of state real per capita state capital stock using EXRL3 GRRWEUS GRSSCP GRUSCPI Gj GTR I I 1IJ Variable HH HH24 HH25.29 HH30.54 HH55 HHC HHM HHN HHRij HHSIZE HHSIZEC HHSIZEM HHSIZEN HHij IM.BAL IM.BAL99 IM.BALPC IM.BALR IM.BALRV IM.BLRPC Definition;Units total Alaska households;thousand households:head under age of 25;thousand households:head between ages of 25 and 29;thousand households:head between ages of 30 and 54;thousand households:head over 54;thousand total Alaska civilian non-Native households; thousand total Alaska military households;thousand total Alaska civilian Native households; thousand 1980 household formation rate for civilian non-Native population in cohort ij average Alaska household size.all households average Alaska civilian non-Native household size average Alaska military household size average Alaska Native household size total Alaska households headed by persons in cohort ij;thousand the summation over time of the annual increments to IM.REV;million $ the sum of the general fund.Permanent Fund.and IMBAL;million $ "impact balance"per capita;$ real "impact balance";million 1967 U.S.$ annual revenues contributed to IMBAL.including interest;million $ real per capita "impact balance";1967 U.S.$ F-21 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation Decenber 1984.Model AS5.1 Historical Data Sourcea BOC.census of Population BOC.census of Population BOC.census of Population BOC.census of Population BOC.census of Population BOC.Census of Population BOC.census of Population BOC.census of population BOC.1980 Census of Population. census Tape STF2 BOC.Census of Population Variable 1M.REV INX.DI INX.DINN INX.DI8N INX.Sl INX.S2 INX.WG LAFPART Lca LF LMUNCAP LPTB LPTBFV LPTBP9 LPTBl LPTB1FV Definition;Units the difference between actual state expenditures in an impact analysis case and what they would have been if'expenditures in real per capita tenns had been kept equivalent to the base case;million $ ratio of Alaskan to U.S.per capita real disposable personal income ratio of Alaska non-Native to U.S.per capita real disposable personal income ratio of Alaska personal income produced to U.S. per capita real disposable personal income ratio of trade/service/finance employment to Alaska real disposable personal income ratio of transportation/communications/utilities employment to Alaska real disposable personal income ratio of Alaskan to U.S.real average wage pseudo labor force participation rate-- ~l()ynlE!I11:t>ypJc3ceof work divided by labor force by place of residence;percent proportion of funding of state capital projects type a·from initial funding source type c;percent labor force;thousand proportion of state-funded municipal capital grants "spent Oii capital"projects;percent total value of real property falling within local government jurisdiction;million $ total assessed value of real,personal,and petroleum property falling within local government jurisdiction;million $ taxable petroleum property falling within local government jurisdiction;million $ assessed value of real and personal property (A.S.29.53)(not full value);million $ assessed value of real and personal property assessed at full value;million $ F-22 Institute of Social and Economic Research fllAP Documentation December 1984,Model AS5.1 Historical Data Sourcea ADCR,Alaska Taxable ADCR,Alaska Taxable ADCR,Alaska Taxable J J 1 I J j :I .j :I I ] J .1 1 1I II Ii I IL_, lJ Variable lPTRAT MDPij MDTOT MHHij MIGIN MIGOUT MILPCT MIlRAT MILlj Mlj NAPik NAHNC NATPij NATTOT NBTHTOT NCBP Definitionj Units percentage of pipeline property within local jurisdictions actually sUbject to local tax because of limitations imposed by state statutes; percent military dependents in cohort ij;thousand total military dependents in 1980;thousand 1980 military households headed by individual in cohort ij;thousand endogenous civilian migration to Alaska; thousand exogenous civilian migration to Alaska; thousand Alaska military population as a fraction of 1980 level the ratio of military employment (EMGM)to military popUlation (POPM) armed forces personnel and military dependents in cohort ij in 1980;thousand fraction of total endogenous civilian (non-Native) migration assigned to cohort ij Native population in aggregated cohorts k (for use with income distribution model);thousand Alaska civilian non-Native (SIC)natural increase Alaska Native population in cohort ij;thousand total Alaska Native population (civilian);thousand total Alaska Native births;thousand bonus income to Natives from lease sales on Native lands;million $ Institute of Social and Economic Research HAP Documentation December 1984.Model ASS.1 Historical Data Sourcea Constructed from ADCR. Alaska Taxable BOC,1980 Census of Population BOC,1980 Census of PopUlation BOC.1980 Census of PopUlation BOC,1980 Census of Population Alaska Public Survey BOC.1980 Census of Population BOC,1980 Census of Population NCBR Alaska crude Native birth rate (per thousand) !------IIIeeAP acclJl1ltltated capi tal of Na#v'ee-lCo~r'P<poOlr;;;al-tt-'l-1iO:;)fRlSS.-r;------------='--_ mi 11 ion $ F-23 variable NCCI NCDR Definition;Units Native Corporation incane fran ANCSA-related activities;million $ Alaska crude Native death rate Institute of Social '! and Econanic Research-' MAP Documentation December 1984,Model ASS.1 Historical Data Sourcea ,J NCEXP current expenditures of Native Corporations; million $ NMij migration rate (positive for in;negative for out) for Native population in cohort ij;percent '-----~-NHHij----~-----Alaska-households-headed-by-e-iv-l-l-ian-Nat-ive­ persons in cohort ij;thousand NCPI NCRP NCWS NCij NDTHINF NDTHTOT NEMabN NFERTj NHHRij NNATINC NNPik NPGQij Native personal incane fran ANCSA-related activities;million $ Native recurrent incane fran petroleum development on Native lands;million $ wages and salaries paid by Native 'Corporations; million $ Alaska Native population in cohort ij before migration;thousand Alaska Native infant deaths;thousand total Alaska Native deaths;thousand Native emploYment n sector ab;thousand Native fertility in female cohort j 1980 household fonnation rate for civilian Native population in cohort ij;percent Alaska Native natural increase;'thousand non-Native population in aggregated cohorts k for use with income distribution model; thousand fraction of civilian Native population in cohort ij in group quarters F-24 BOC,census of Population Alaska Department of Health and Social Services and Alaska Native Medical center BOC,census of Population, census Tape STF2 BOC,~Census-of-~opu.lat.ion,--" census Tape STF2 BOC,1980 Census of Population I"J r"J J ] J ] 'j ] ,I I I 1 Variable NRClj 1 I I NSEXDIV NSURINFi NSlj NIP I \ I I NWSabN OEMlj Definition;Units targeted total change in Native household fonnation rate for cohort ij Native sex division at birth Native infant survival rates Native survival rate for cohort ij period over which Native household fonnation rates trend;years Native wages and salaries in sector ab;mi1,lion $ exogenous civilian non-Native migration rate (positive for in;negative for out)for population in cohort ij Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984.Mode 1 AS5.1 Historical Data Sourcea Alaska Department of Health and Social Services Alaska Department of Health and Social Services Alaska Department of Health and Social Services Anchorage Urban Observatory and BOC.1980 Census of Population OMba rate of operations and maintenance cost for state capital stock type a from funding source b; percent of value of stock P.BAL99 P.BALGF9 P.BALPF P.DPINN P.DPINNl P.EL99 P.ELED P.ELNEDl lJ P.EX99S P.EXBM P.EXCAP combined fund balance per capita;$ general fund balance per capita;$ Pennanent Fund balance per capita;$ non-Native disposable personal income per capita;$ Native disposable personal income (SIC)per capita net of nontaxable ANCSA payment;$ per capita EL99;$ per capita ELED;$ per capita ELNED1;$ per capita EX99S;$ per capita unrestricted general fund expenditures (EXGFBM);$ per capita state capital expenditures;$ F-25 ······-Pl.:P6--.variablestofacil itateprintingpopulation ...--...-....~~---·~--distl"-ibution-model.r'esults;..._ Variable P.EXOPS P.EXTRNS P.GEXP P.GODT P.PI P.PIN P.PINCl P.PINN P.R99S P.RlT99 P.RSEN P.RSIN P.RSIP P.RT99 P.RTIS pgPTPER PAD 1 PAD2 PADJ Definition;Units per capita state operating expenditures;$ per capita Permanent Fund dividend;$ per capita state plus local government expenditures;$ per capita state government bonded indebtedness;$ per capita personal income;$ per capita Native personal income;$ per capita Native claims personal income;$ per capita non-Native personal income;$ per capita state general plus Permanent Fund revenues;$ per capita state-local revenue transfers;$ per capita state endogenous revenues;$ per capi tii general and Permanent Fund earnings;$ .per capita interest on the Permanent Fund;$ per capita total state taxes;$ per capita state personal income tax revenues;$ percentage of petroleum property which is taxable by state which falls within local taxing jurisdiction;percentage proportion of population aged 5 to 19 attending district schools;percent proportion of population aged 5 to 19 attending REAA schools;percent ratio of premium (WRM9P)to average wage (WRM91)in manUfacturing sector F-26 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation Decerrber 1984.Model AS5.1 Historical Data Sourcea ---------_..-.----_..._. ADCR.Alaska Taxable 1 1 I ·1 J 1 I ) 1 .) ) I 1 I I -) I J 1 Variable PAR LVFV PARNONGF PBLTBL PBTRATE PC12N PC12RN PCINDA PCIVPY PCNC1 PCNC2 PCNC3 !]PCNC4 IJ PCNCSV PCNCSV1 Definition;Units ratio of local estimate to full value of local property according to state appraiser;percent proportion of University of Alaska revenues not from the general fund;percent proportion of gross business receipts taxable after 1978 tax law change;percent state business license tax rate per business; million dollars per business proportion of ANCSA payments made to 12 regional Native corporations in Alaska;percent proportion of menDers of 12 regional Native corporations residing in Alaska;percent proportion of gap between average industry employment share and Native industry employment share that is closed within one time period ratio of military to federal civilian wage rate; percent proportion of ANCSA payments paid directly to individuals;percent proportion of recurring income from petroleum development on Native lands paid directly to individuals;percent proportion of earnings on Native Corporation accumulated capital paid directly to individuals;percent proportion of bonus income from lease sales on Native lands paid directly to individuals;percent proportion of Native Corporation income used for investment;percent proportion of bonus income from lease sales on Native lands and retained by Native Corporations which is used for investment;percent F-27 Institute of Social and Economic Research HAP Documentation Deceniler 1984,Model ASS.1 Historical Data Sourcea AOR,Revenues Sources Robert Nathan Associates, 2(c)Report:Federal Programs and Alaska Natives Robert Nathan Associates, 2(c)Report:Federal Programs and Alaska Natives Variable PCNCWS PCOLART PCWSl PCWS2 PCYNAl PDCON PDCONBAS PDEXOPS PDRATIO PDRATI06 PDRPIBAS PDUSCPI PDUSCPI6 Definition;Units proportion of current expenditures of Native Corporations paid 1n wages and salaries;percent the cost of 11v1ng differential for federal employees;percentage ratio of state government wage and salary payments to personnel expenditures;percent ratio of local government wage and salary~payments to local government personal serv1ces expenditures proport10n by which the rat10 of personal income to wages and salaries for Native exceeds that of the total population;percent construction pr1ce deflator;index value of construction price deflator in base/year state government operating expenditures price defl ator~;~~lildeX ~~ ratio of Alaskan relative price index to U.S. consumer pri ce index initial values for ratio of Alaskan relat1ve price index to U.S.consumer price index ~.·-A·laskan-relat-i·ve·priee-+ndex-·1967~value-~is···· 1.425 times U.S.CPI which in 1967 was 100; index 1982 Alaskan price level using 1967 US as ba.se;·llldex U.S.consumer price 1ndex (1967=100);1ndex initial value for US consumer pr1ce index;index F-28 Institute of Social and Econom1c Research HAP Documentat10n December 1984,Model ASS.1 Historical Data Sourcea ADl,Statistical Quarterly and ADA,Executive Budget ADl,Statistical Quarterly and BOC,Governmental Finances -. for construct10n methodology,see Brian Reeder,Gross Sta.te Product for Alaska:Techn1cal Documenta- tion,ISER constructed fram ADl,Statist1cal QUart:eflYL;~BEK1)ersonCll~···inc~ and employment data ··--constr-ucted-f-r-om-U.S.--Depar-tment of labor,Bureau of labor Statistics and University of Alaska,Agriculture Extension Service,Quarterly Food Price Survey of .13 Alaskan cities U.S.Department of labor,Bureau of labor Statistics j j j I I -j I I 1 .( I l Variable PECIG PERNA1 PERNA2 PERNA3 PESLT PESLTC PF PFISH1 PFN PI PI.DPI PI.EL99 PI.EX99S PI.EXL PI.EXS PI.EXT PI.GODT Definition;units proportion of cigarette tax receipts paid to special fund proportion of change in state employment rate reflected in change in Native employment rate;percent ,proportion of gap between Native and state employment rates that is closed in one year;percent percentage of Native Corporation jobs held by Natives proportion of "other"state taxes shared with local government;percent proportion of state corporate income tax shared with local government;percent non-Native females 14 and under;thousand percentage of fish harvesting employment reported as proprietors Native females 14 and under;thousand personal income;million $ ratio of disposable personal income to total personal income ratio of local government expenditures to personal income ratio of total state government expenditures to personal income ratio of local government expenditures net of debt service to personal income ratio of state government general fund expenditures (EXGF)to personal income ratio of state and local government expenditures to personal income ratio of state general obligation bonded debt to personal income F-29 Institute of Social and Economic Research HAP Documentation December 1984.Model ASS.1 Historical Data Sourcea DOL.Statistical Quarterly; BEA employment data;and G.Rogers.Measuring the Socioeconomic Impact of Alaska's Fisheries BEA personal income data Inst i tute of Sod al,'l and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984.Model ASS.1 Variable PI.Rl99 PI.RlPT PI.RSEN PI.TXl PI.TXS PI.WS98 PI3 PI8 pIOIR PIoIST PH PIN PINl PINN PIOLI PIPAoJ Definition;Units ratio of local government revenues to personal incane ratio of local property taxes to personal incane ratio of endogenous state revenues to personal incane ratio of locally generated local government taxes to personal incane ratio of state taxes net ofpetroleurn-related taxes to personal incane ratio of wage and salary plus military salary incane to personal incane personal incane net of "enclave"construction employee personal incane;million $ personal incane plus residence adjustment; million $ dividends.interest.and rent component of i ncane;mi 11 ion f .---- model switch which results in retrieval of Native employment and wages and salaries from incane distribution model if a value of one is chosen; units the value of personal incane lagged one year. foruseinincane·distributionmo'del Native personal incane.including Native claims incane to individuals;million $ Native personal incane net of Native claims incane to individuals.million $ non-Native personal incane;million $ other labor incane component of personal incane; mi 11 ion $ ratio of "enclave"to regular construction wage rate;percent F-30 Historical Data Sourcea BEA personal incane BEA.personal incane data Aol Statistical Quarterly 1 ) ,) I } 1 ) ,\ 1 i ! I ( Variable PIPRO PIPR01 PIPROF PIRADJ PISSC PITRAN PITRAN1 PITRAN6 PlFD9 PlFOOMC PlFOOMM Definitionj Units proprietors income component of personal income; million $ nonfishery proprietor income component of personal income;million $ fishery proprietor income comppnent of personal income;million $ residence adjustment component of personal income; million $ personal contributions to Social Security component of personal income;million $ transfers component of personal income;million $ transfers (excluding Permanent Fund dividend payments)component of personal income;million $ initial values for transfers (excluding Permanent Fund)component of personal income;million $ total Alaska potential civilian labor force aged 15 to 64;thousand Alaska potential civilian non-Native.non- military dependent labor force (population aged 15 to 64);thousand Alaska potential military labor force (military dependents aged 15 to 64;active-duty military are excluded);thousand Alaska potential civilian Native labor force aged 15 to 64;thousand non-Native males 14 and under used with income distribution model;thousand Native males 14 and under used with income distribution model;thousand amount of gross receipts exempt from state gross receipts tax;million $ F-31 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984.Model AS5.1 Historical Data Sourcea BEA.personal income data BEA.personal income data BEA.personal income data BEA.personal income data BEA.personal income data BEA.personal income data Historical Data SourceaVariable POP.AD POP.CIV POP.GER POP.KID POP.MIL POP.NAT POPADS POPAVAGE POPC Definition;Units ratio of Alaska population aged 15 to 64 to total population ratio of Alaska civilian non-Native population to total population ratio of Alaska population aged 65 and over to total population ratio of Alaska population under 15 to total population ratio of Alaska military and military dependents to total population ratio of Alaska Native population to total population total Alaska population aged 15 to 64;thousand average age of Alaskan population total population net of armed forces personnel Une:llJg~s lI1i li~Clf'Y .c!epE!n~en~s);thl?usand Institute of Social and Economic Research HAP Documentation December 1984,Model AS5.1 .j 1 I I .J I j BOC and ADL POPCGQ POPGER POPGQ POPKIDS POPM POPMGQ POPMIG POPNE POPNGQ POPNI9 Alaska civilian non-Native population in group quarters;thousand total Alaska population aged 65 and over;thousand total Alaska population in group quarters;thousand armed forces personnel;thousand military population in group quarters;thousand total net civilian migration to Alaska;thousand Native population based upon Native Corporation enrollment records;thousand Alaska Native population in group quarters;thousand total Alaska civilian natural increase;thousand F-32 BOC,Census of Population BOC,Census of Population BOC,Census of Population ·BOC~Census of Population BOC,Census of Population BOC,Census of Population 2(c)Report-Federal Program & Alaska Natives by Rbbel"t Nathan Associates,for U.S.Department of Interior BOC,Census of Population I } .J 1 "( ) j I I Variable POPSKUl POPij PPVAl PR.BAl99 PR.BAlCP PR.BAlG1 PR.BAlG2 PR.BAlP2 PR.BAlPF PR.DPI PR.DPI8N PR.DPIN PR.DPINN PR.DPIU6 '11 PR.DPIUS '_.__J PR.ECP PR.ECPN Definitionj Unlts total Alaska population aged S to 19;thousand total Alaska population in cohort ij;thousand total full assessed value of real,personal, and petroleum-related property in the state; mi 11 ion $ general plus Permanent Fund balance real per capita;1967 $ value of state capital stock real per capita; 1967 U.S.$ general fund balance real per capita;1967 U.S.$ general fund balance real per capita deflated by state operating budget deflator;1967 U.S.$ Permanent Fund balance real per capita deflated by operating budget deflator;1967 U.S.$ Permanent Fund balance real per capita;1967 U.S.$ dispoab1e personal income real per capita; 1967 U.S.$ real disposable personal income per capita before residence adjustment and net of enclave income; 1967 U.S.$ Native disposable personal income real per capita; 1967 U.S.$ non-Native disposable income real per capita; 1967 U.S.$ initial value for US real per capita disposable personal income;$ U.S.disposable personal income real per capita; 1967 U.S.$ state capital expenditures for highways from bond funds real per capita (EXCPSHY); 1967 U.S.$ state capital expenditures nonhighway from bond funds real per capita (EXCPSNH);1967 U.S.$ F-33 Institute of Soclal and Economic Research HAP Documentation December 1984,Mode 1 ASS.1 Historical Data Sourcea BOC.census of Population U.S.Department of Commerce --_._----_.._-----PR.GFCN stategeneralluncrnonIlYgllwaycapifalexpendltures··· (EXGFCNH)real per capita;1967 U.S.$ Variable PR.EL99 PR.ELED PR.ELEDC PR.ELNED PR.EX99S PR.EXccc PR.EXBM PR.EXCAP PR.EXOPS PR.GEXP PR.GFC PR.GODT PR.NCEXP PR.PI PR.PI3 Definition;Units total local expenditures (EL99)real per capita; 1967 U.S.$ local expenditures for education (ELED)real per capita;1967 U.S.$ local government capital expenditure~for education (ELEDCP)real per capita;1967 U.S.$ local non-education expenditures (ELNED1)real per capita;1967 U.S.$ total state expenditures (EX99S)real per capita; 1967 U.S.$ state expenditures in program category ccc real per capita;1967 $ state general fund expenditures (EXBM)real per capita;1967 U.S.$ state capital expenditures real per capita; 1967 U.S.$ state operating expenditures real per capita; 1967 U.S.$ state and local government expenditures real per capita;1967 U.S.$ state general fund highway capital expenditures (EXGFCHY)real per capita;1967 U.S.$ state government bonded indebtedness real per capita;1967 U.S.$ re.al.current expenditures of Native Corporations .per Native;1967 U.S.$ personal income real per capita;1967 U.S.$ personal income net of "enclave"construction employee personal income (PI3)real per capita; 1967 U.S.$ F-34 Institute of Social and Economic Research HAP Documentation December 1984.Model ASS.1 Historical Data Sourcea r I j j J -j r I r I i i I I I Variable PR.PIN PR.PINCL Definition;units Native personal income real per capita;1967 U.S.$ Native personal income real per capita plus real current expenditures of Native Corporations per capita;1967 U.S.$ Institute of Social and Economic Research HAP Documentation December 1984,Model AS5.1 Historical Data Sourcea PR.PINN PR.R99S PR.RLT99 PR.RSEN PR.RSIN PR.RSIP PR.RT99 PR.RTIS PRINT PRINT2 PTBP9 PTOURB J PTOURD PTOURE non-Native personal income real per capita; 1967 U.S.$ total state revenues (R99S)real per capita; 1967 U.S.$ state-local revenue transfers real per capita; 1967 U.S.$ state endogenous revenues (RSEN)real per capita; 1967 U.S.$ general and Permanent Fund earnings real per capita;1967 U.S.$ Permanent Fund earnings real per capita; 1967 U.S.$ state tax revenues (RT99)real per capita; 1967 U.S.$ state personal income tax receipts real per capita;1967 U.S.$ variable from income distribution model which allows results to be printed if value of one is chosen variable from income distribution model which allows results to be printed if value of one is chosen total value of taxable petroleum property; million $ intercept term on tourist industry employment equation proportion of tourist industry employment in trade elasticity of tourism employment to growth 10 oumer of toud sts F-35 ADCR,Alaska Taxable Lmprovements to Specification of the HAP Model Lmprovements to Specification of the MAP Mode 1 Improvements to Specification of the MAP Model vadable PTOURS PTOURT Definition;Units proportion of tourist industry employment in services proportion of tourist industry employment in transportation Institute of Social and Economic Research HAP Documentation Decent>er 1984,Model ASS.1 J Historical Data Sourcea ]mprovements to Specification of the HAP Model ]mprovements to Specification of the HAP Model PTRTS tax rate on state petroleum-related property; percent PWRBASE R.BALCAP R.CAPa R.DPI R.DPI8N R.DPI8X R.PI R.PIN R.PINN R.WR97 R.WR98 R99S RATl RATIO 1 average U.S.wages paid in government in 1967;$ real value of state capital stock;million 1967 U.S.$ real value of state capital stock type a; million 1982 $ real disposable personal income;million 1967 U.S.$ real purchasing power creating support sector demand;million 1967 U.S.$ real disposable personal income plus residence ~adjusJm~nt .Qf ."~ncJ~~E!~'.c:pn~'trlJ<:Jlon ~l ()yees; million 1967 U.S.$ rea 1 persona 1 income;milli on 1967 U.S.$ Native real personal income;million 1967 U.S.$ non-Native real personal income;million 1967 U.S.$ average annual real wage rate inclUding military; 1967 U.S.$ total general fund and Permanent Fund revenues; mi 11ion·$ ratio of non--Native income to total taxable income; percent variable used to make individual state budget items consistent with total operating budget constraint; percent F-36 constructed using ADA,Annual Financial Report constructed using ADL, Statistical Quarterly ADA,Annual Financial Report l I 1 Variable RCij RCDEPa REPba RL99 RL99.PT RL99.RT RL991 RLMC RLOT RLPT RLPTl RLPTX RLT99 RLTCS RLTCS4 RLTE99 Definition;units targeted total change in civilian household formation rate for cohort ij rate of depreciation of state capital stock type a rate of replacement of state capital stock type a from funding source b;percent of value of stock total local government revenues;million $ ratio of local property taxes to total local government revenues ratio of state-local transfers to state-local government revenues total local government revenues net of miscellaneous revenues;million $ local charges and miscellaneous revenue; million $ local government taxes net of property tax; million $ local property taxes;million $ local property tax revenues net of exogenous component;million $ exogenous local property tax;million $ total revenue transfers from state to local government;million $ state-local shared corporate income tax after 1978 tax law change;million $ initial estimate of state-local shared corporate income tax before application of RATI01; million $ total state-local government transfers for education purposes;million $ F-37 Institute of Social and Economic Research HAP Documentation December 1984.Model ASS.1 Historical Data Sourcea constructed from BOC Govern- mental Finances and BOC State Government Finances BOC.Governmental Finances BOC.Governmental Finances BOC.Governmental Finances BOC.Governmental Finances Variable RLTE994 RLTEA RLTEA4 RLTEB RLTEB4 RLTEB6 RLTEC RLTEC4 RLTEF ············RLTEF4 RLTEO RLTE04 RLTET RLTET4 Definition;Units initial estimate of transfers from state to local government for education purposes before application of RATI01;million $ total transfers from state to local government for primary and secondary education;million $ initial estimate of transfers from state to local government for primary and secondary education before application of RATI01;mi 11 ion $ state aid to local education net of aid to district schools and since their inception,the REAA schools; mi 11 ion $ initial model estimate of state aid to local govern- ment for education net of district and REAA aid before application of RATIOl initial values for state aid to local government for education net of district and REAA aid cigarette tax education transfers from state to local government;million $ initial estimate of cigarette tax education transfers from state to local government before application of RATI01;million $ school foundation program transfers from state to local government;million $ initial-estimate·of school foundation·program--.__._.-... .transfers ··f.rom-·state-·to-loGal····government···before--···---..__. application of RATI01;million $ miscellaneous state aids to district schools; million $ initial estimate of miscellaneous state aids to district schools before application of RATI01; million $ state aid to local district schools for transportation;million $ initial estimate of state aid to district schools for transportation before application of RATI01;million $ F-38 Institute of Social and Economic Research HAP Documentation December 1984,Model ASS.1 Historical Data Sourcea ADA,Annual Financial Report constructed from BOC,State Governmental Finances and.ADA Annual Financial Report ADA,Annua 1 Fi nand a1 Report ADA,Annual Financial Report ADA,Annual Financial Report ADA,Annual Financial Report l 1 I ! ~l !. Variable RlTF RlTFPX ]RlTMA RlTMA4 RlTMA6 RlTHCAP RlTMS RlTOT RlTOT4 RlTRS RlTRS4 RlTRS6 RlTT9 RlTT94 RlTVS RlTVS4 Definition;Units federal-local government transfers;million $ petroleum-related federal-local government transfers; million $ state local transfers under munic1pa1 assistance program;million $ initial model estimate of state-local transfers under municipal assistance program;million $ initial values for state-local transfers under municipal assistance;million $ municipal capital grants from state to local government;million $ state-local revenue transfers net of education. revenue sharing.and tax sharing;million $ state-local tax sharing of other taxes (amusement licenses.aviation fuel tax.liquor licenses. fisheries tax);million $ initial estimate of state-local sharing of other taxes before application of RATI01;million $ state-local revenue sharing;million $ initial model estimate of state-local revenue sharing before application of RATI01;million $ initial values for state-local revenue sharing; million $ total state-local tax transfers;million $ initial estimate of total state-local tax transfers;million $ state-local shared electric and telephone co-op taxes;million $ initial estimate of state-local shared electric and telephone co-op taxes before application of F-39 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984.Mode 1 ASS.1 Historical Data Sourcea BOG.Governmental Finances ADA,Executive Budget ADA,Annual Financial Report constructed from BOG State Government Finances &ADA Executive Budget ADA,Executive Budget ADA.Executive Budget Variable Definition;Units Institute of Social and Economic Research HAP Documentation Decenber 1984.Mode 1 ASS.1 Historical Data Sourcea RLTX exogenous state-local transfers;million $ RMIS RMISRES RMISRES6 RNAT RNATX ROFAS ROFERS _ROEOS ROFTS ROR RORANGRO RORBOND RORCPDEP RORCRF RORDISK RORNC miscellaneous unrestricted general fund revenues; mi 11 ion $ miscellaneous restricted general fund revenues;million $ initial values for miscellaneous restricted general fund revenues;million $ Native personal income as percentage of total personal income calculated using the income distribution model Native personal income as percentage of total personal income calculated using the income distribution model state auto licenses and fees;million $ general fund ferry receipts;million $ _nonauto-relatedbJ..sjne_~sanc::lnQnl:>usi ne$S 1ic;enses and fees to general fund;million $ total general fund fees and licenses;million $ real rate of return on general fund balance; percent under EXRLOPB.rate at which state operating expenditure -annui tY grdWS-;p~rc~nt real state g.o.bond interest rate;percent real rate of depreciation of state-owned capital; percent capital recovery factor for calculating annual servicing of bonded debt;percent discount rate applied to future petroleum revenues to calculate present value in 1982 dollars (DF.RSVP) nominal rate of return on accumulated capital of Native Corporations;percent F-40 ADR.Revenue Sources ADA.Annual Financial Report ADA.Annual Financial Report constructed-Jrom~R..J\..Annua 1 Financial Report ADA.Annual Financial Report I ~·"1 .~.l ! j \ i ( I .1 ! I [ Variable RORPDF RORPPF RP7S RP7SGF RP7SPF RP9S RP9SGF j RP9X RPBS RPBSGF RPEN RPENGF RPPS )j RPRY RPRYGF _I RPTS RS.FED RS.PET Definition;Units real rate of return premium applied to development fund over general fund;percent real rate of return premium applied to Permanent Fund in excess of general fund;percent total petroleum royalties and bonuses;million $ total petroleum royalties and bonuses paid to general fund;million $ constitutionally mandated Permanent Fund con- tributions from petroleum revenues;million $ total petroleum revenues before Permanent Fund deductions;million $ total petroleum revenues paid to general fund; mi 11 ion $ miscellaneous exogenous petroleum revenues; mi 11 ion $ state petroleum bonuses before Permanent Fund deduction;million $ state petroleum bonuses paid to general fund; mi 11 ion $ state petroleum rents before Permanent Fund deduction;million $ state petroleum rents paid to general fund; million $ state petroleum property tax;million $ state petroleum royalties before Permanent Fund deduction;million $ state petroleum royalties paid to general fund; mi 11 ion $ state petroleum production taxes;million $ ratio of federal transfers to total state revenues ratio of "endowment"type revenues to total state revenues F-4l Institute of Social and Economic Research HAP Documentation Decenber 1984.Model ASS.1 Historical Data Sourcea ADR Revenue Sources ADR.Revenue Sources ADR.Revenue Sources ADR.Revenue Sources ADR.Revenue Sources ADR,Revenue Sources ADR,Revenue Sources ADR.Revenue Sources ADR,Revenue Sources AOR,Revenue Sources ADR.Revenue Sources ADR.Revenue Sources ADR,Revenue Sources vadab1e RS.REe RS.RP9S RS.RSEN RS.RSIN RSBH.B99 RSBH.EXD RSBH.GF RSBH.PET RSBH.PF RSBH.REN Definition;units ratio of endogenous and interest revenues to total state revenues ratio of petroleum revenues to total state revenues ratio of endogenous revenues to total state revenues ratio of general and Permanent Fund earnings to total state revenues ratio of fund earnings (RSIG+RSID+RSIPGF)to unrestricted general fund revenues ratio of debt service expenditures (EXDSS)to unrestricted general fund revenues ratio of general fund earnings (RSIG)to unrestricted general fund revenues ratio of endowment revenues (RP9SGF+RSIG+RSID+RSIPGF) to unrestricted general fund revenues ratio of Permanent Fund earnings transferred to general fund (RSIPGF)to unrestricted general fund revenues ratio of endogenous general fund revenues (RSENGF) to unrestricted general fund revenues ( Institute of Social I.I and Economic Research HAP Documentation December 1984,Model ASS.1 Historical Data Sriurce a .RSBH.RP9 rat io.ofpetrol eum revenues (RP9SGEJ 10 unrestricted fund revenues RSEN RSENGF RSFDN state endogenous revenues;million $ state endogenous unrestricted general fund revenues;million $ ..1;o1;a1Tedera1 grants-in-aid to stategenefa1 fund;million $ H ADA,AnnUal Fllialic1 a1 Report RSFDN6 RSFDNCAX initial values for total federal grants-in-aid to state general fund;million $ federal grants-in-aid to state general fund for capital expenditures;million $ F-42 ADA,Annual Financial Report ADA,Annual Financial Report I I ! Variable RSFDNPX RSFDNPXG RSFDNX RSFFS RSFS RSFS1 RSGF RSGFBM RSGF.AFR RSGFGAP RSGFRS RSIAS RSIO RSIONET RSIG lJ RSIG6 RSIGNET RSIN Definition;units federal-state shared petroleum royalties; mi 11 ion $ general fund portion of federal-state shared petroleum royalties;million $ exogenous federal-state transfer payments; mi 11 ion $ fees and licenses receipts paid into the fish and game special revenue fund;million $ total revenues of the special funds except the Permanent Fund;million $ miscellaneous receipts of state special revenue funds;million $ total state general fund revenues (unrestricted and restricted);million $ total general fund unrestricted revenues;million $ total general fund revenues (including inter- agency receipts) the difference between the statutory spending limit and available funds;million $ restricted state general fund revenues;million $ international airport receipts (enterprise fund); mi 11 ion $ state development fund earnings;million $ state development fund earnings net of inflation; million $ state general fund interest;million $ initial value for state general fund interest; mi 11 ion $ state general fund interest net of inflation; mi 11 ion $ state investment earnings deposited in the general fund;million $ F-43 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model ASS.1 Historical Data Sourcea ADR,Revenue Sources ADR,Revenue Sources ADA,Annual Financial Report ADA,Annual Financial Report ADA,Annual Financial Report ADR,Revenue Sources ADR,Revenue Sources ADA,Annual Financial Report ADA,Annual Financial Report ADR,Revenue Sources Variable RSIP RSIPS RSIPGF RSIPPF RSIPPF1 RSIPNET RSI99 RSI99NET ......RT99 RTAS RTBS RTBS1 RTBS2 RTCIS RTCS RTCS1 RTCSPX Definition;Units state Permanent Fund interest;million $ state Permanent Fund interest--initia1 adjustment;million $ state Permanent Fund interest transferred into general fund;million $ reinvested Permanent Fund earnings;million $ Permanent Fund earnings net of transfers to general fund;million $ state Permanent Fund interest net of inflation; mi 11 ion $ total earnings of state general fund.Permanent Fund.and development funds total earnings of state general fund.Permanent Fund.and development funds interest net of inflation;million $ .._to.taL~ttCltetii)(.revenu~s;.l11i11 ion $ alcoholic beverage tax;million $ gross receipts tax and business license tax; mi 11 ion $ portion of gross receipts tax revenues derived from .business licenses;mi-11ion $ portion of gross receipts tax revenues derived from gross receipts in excess of exempted amount per business;million $ cigarette tax receipts (sum of general fund and tobacco fund receipts);million $ state corporate tax receipts;mi 11ion$ corporate income tax net of petroleum sector; million $ state corporate tax receipts from petroleum sector; mi 11 ion $ F-44 Institute of Social and Economic Research .MAP Documentation December 1984.Model ASS.1 Historical Data Source a ADR.Revenue Sources ADR.Revenue Sources ADR.Revenue Sources ADA.Annual Financial Report and ADR.Revenue Sources ADA.Annual Financial Report constructed from ADR unpublished constructed from ADA.Annual Financial Report and A~ unpublished data ADA.Annual Financial Report Clfld AD~...Revenue Sources ADA.AnnuaLElnancia1 Report and ADR.Revenue Sources ADR.Revenue Sources .j r ( -I I i ! I i [ J Variable RTCSX RTIS RTISC RTISCA RTISCA1 RTISCA2 RTISCP RTISlOS RTISXX RTMF RTOTS RTOTS6 RTPIF RTSS RTVS Definition;Units exogenous corporate income tax;million $ personal income tax;million $ personal income tax on a calendar year basis; mi 11 ion $ personal income tax liability per taxpayer on a calendar year basis;thousand $ initial estimate of personal income tax liability per taxpayer on a calendar year basis;thousand $ initial estimate of personal income tax liability per taxpayer on a calendar year basis without tax structure changes introduced by modeler;thousand $ calendar-year state income taxes paid out of Alaskan resident personal income;million $ difference per taxpayer between personal income tax liability before and after structural changes introduced by modeler;million $ adjustment of disposable income to cover lag in refund in state personal income taxes after repeal;million $ highway,aviation,and marine fuel taxes; million $ other state taxes--consists of fiduciary, inheritance,estate,mining,conservation, prepaid,and fish taxes;million $ initial values for other state taxes--consists of fiduciary,inheritance,estate,mining, conservation,prepaid,and fish taxes;million $ federal income taxes paid out of Alaskan resident personal income;million $ school tax;million $ ad valorem taxes consisting of insurance premium tax and electric telephone company revenue tax; F-45 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model AS5.1 Historical Data Sourcea ADA,Annual Financial Report ADR,Cumulative Summary of Revenue,a monthly report ADR,unpUblished data ADA,Annual Financial Report and ADR,Revenue Sources ADR,Revenue Sources ADR,Revenue Sources BEA -disposable personal income data ADA,Annual Financial Report ADA,Annual Financial Report and ADR,Revenue Sources Variable SANCSA SANCSAX SEXDIV Definition;units payments to Alaska Natives by state government under ANCSA;million $ special state appropriation to payoff ANCSA debt non-Native sex division at birth;percent Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Hodel A8S.1 Historical Data Sourcea Alaska Department of Health and Social Services SlGEXP total combined state and local government expenditures;million $ SURINFi Sij TCRED THG non-Native infant survival rates;percent non-Native survival rate for cohort ij individual tax credit beginning after 12/31/77;$ total gallons of highway gasoline sold in the state (does not include Off-highway gallon sales); mi 11 ion gallons Alaska Department of Health and Social Services Alaska Department of Health and Social Services ADR,monthly motor vehicle tax forms j l I TOURIST n~~r of ~()uristvisi~()r~t()_A1a!)k(i;thousands Alaska Department of HealthancfSocfci1,'Services ratio of unemployment rates in Alaska and the u.S. average percentage change in state personal income tax rate; percentage state personal income tax credit adjustment (percentage of tax liability); ---change i nthe f1 oorofpersona1i ncometaxrate------- sehedu-1 et--uni-ts-------------------~_.---..------ j I I j i I I Department of Public Safety, Motor Vehicle Division period over which civilian household formation rates trend;years adjustment to witho1d from state expenditures aportionof_any.persona1 income tax reduction; percent total highway motor vehicles operating in the state (passenger and truck);thousand TPTV TXCRPC TXRT TXPTXX U.AK.US .TP --TXBASE F-46 annual growth in 1ncOOle P~~IIJ"PUI.I-tl.---------------=-.,--_ to income distribution model) variable UNEMP UNEMRATE UUS VAEX VAEX6 WEALTH WEUS !I WEUS6I II WR.AK.US WR97 WR98 WRab WRCNNP WRCNP WRCU WRGab WRGC WRSMS Definition;Units average annual Alaska unemployment;thousand Alaska unemployment rate;percent US unemployment rate;percent value of a personal exemption on personal income tax;$ initial value for personal exemption;$ four-year average of real per capita income; 1967 U.S.$ average weekly wage &salary earnings in U.S.;$ initial value for average weekly wage and salary earnings in United States;$ change in the ratio of Alaska to U.S. civilian wage rate average annual wage rate for nonagricultural wage and salary employment;$ average annual wage rate for nonagricultural wage and salary employment plus military;$ average annual wage rate for industry sector ab;$ average annual wage rate for non-lIenc1ave ll construction wage rate;$ average annual wage rate for premium wage (pipeline or lIenc1ave ll )construction;$ average annual wage rate for communications and public utilities;$ annual growth in real annual wage rate in industry ab (input to income distribution model) average annual wage rate for federal civilian;$ Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984.Model AS5.1 Historical Data Sourcea ADl U.S.Department of labor. Bureau of labor Statistics IRS.Statistics of Income U.S.Department of labor. Bureau of labor Statistics ADl.Statistical Quarterly ADl.Statistical Quarterly ADl.Statistical Quarterly ADl.Statistical Quarterly ADl.Statistical Quarterly F-47 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation Decent>er 1984.Hodel ASS.1 variable Definition;Units Historical Data Sourcea WRM91 average annual wage rate for existing (low wage) manufacturing employment;$ ADL.Statistical Quarterly WRMXl average annual wage rate for large-project (high wage)manufacturing employment;$ WRSB average annual wage rate for business services;$ADL.Statistical Quarterly WRSNB average annual wage rate for nonbusiness services;$ADL.Statistical Quarterly WS97 total wage and salary payments in nonagricultural wage and salary industries;million $ WS98 WS98L WSab total wage and salary payments in nonagricultural wage and salary industries plus military;million $ wages and salaries lagged one year (input to income distribution model);million $ wages and salaries paid in industry ab;ab=CN GA A9 CM DR OW 09 FI GF M9 PU P9 S9 T9;million $ ADL.Statistical Quarterly I -1 WSMXl wages and salaries paid in high wage exogenous large-project manUfacturing;million $ .-----...-~WSGSFY----------state--government-wages-and--sa-l-arieson-flsca-1--year--------ADL,Statlstlca-l-Quarterly---· basis;million $ WSCNP wages and salary payments in high wage ("enclave") construction;million $.1 J 1 I I ADL.Statistical Quarterly ADL.Statistical Quarterly ADL.Statistical Quarterly BEA.personal income data local government wages and salaries;million $ military personnel wages and salaries;million $ federal civilian wages and salaries;million $ state government wages and salaries;million $ WSGC WSGS WSGM WSGL WSNA wages and salaries paid to Natives;million $ WSS91 wages and salaries in services net of Native Corporation-related wages;million $ Xl-X6 variables used to facilitate printing of output of the income distribution model F-48 l j ! Variable Definitionj Units Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984.Model ASS.1 Historical Data Sourcea XX98 total real gross state product in wage and salary industries and military;million 1972 U.S.$ XXab XXA9 real gross state product in industry ab; ab--A9 CM CN DR OW 09 FI GA GF PU P9 S9 T9; million 1972 U.S.$ agriculture-forestry-fisheries real gross state product;million 1972 U.S.$ for construction methodologies. see Brian Reeder.Gross State Product for Alaska:Technical Documentation.ISER for construction methodology.see Brian Reeder.Gross State Product for Alaska:Technical Documenta- tion.ISER XXCNl endogenous (residentiary plus state government) component of construction real gross state product;million 1972 U.S.$ XXCNB XXCNX XXDRNT XXM9 XXMO XXMXl XXMX2 IJ 1 XXS8NT XXSB residentiary construction real gross state product; million 1972 U.S.$ gross product associated with exogenous construction;million 1972 U.S.$ state retail trade net 9f tourism real gross state product;million 1972 $ manufacturing real gross state product; million 1972 U.S.$ endogenous manufacturing real gross state product;million 1972 U.S.$ exogenous large-project manufacturing real gross state product;million 1972 U.S.$ manufacturing real gross state product net of large projects;million support services (net of business.tourism. and Native claims)real gross state product; million 1972 U.S.$ business services real gross state product; million 1972 U.S.$ F-49 for construction methodologies. see Brian Reeder.Gross State Product for Alaska:Technical Documentation.ISER Variable XXTNT XXVACAP XXVHY XXVNHY YR Za.a Defin1tioni Un1ts transportation (net of tourism and exogenous components)real gross state product;mi1110n 1972 U.S.$ value added in contract construction accounted for by government (state)purchases from the private contract1ng industry;million 1972 U.S.$ value added in construction industry from private contracts for highway construction let by state government;million $ value added 1n construction industry from private contracts for nonhighway construction 1.et by state government;mi1110n $ year spacer variable to maintain locational consistency of equations F-SO Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Oocumentat1on December 1984.Mode 1 ASS.1 Historical Data Sourcea constructed from ADPW worksheets constructed from ADPW worksheets I J I 1 I ] 1 j ] j j -j ! ] j 1 I I REGIONALIZATION MODEL ;0 .J .], j ,j J :] 1 ~ J 1 I, j . J I 1 I lJ Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A84.CD ISER MAP ALASKA ECONOMIC MODEL: REGIONALIZATION MODEL DOCUMENTATION VERSION A84.CD,DECEMBER 1984 J 1 ] ] I 'I -J ] J J ] 1 ,1 I 1 'I ] I 1 I 1I.J ] Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A84.CD 1.Model Description Introduction This report presents in general outline form the structure of the regionalization model which allocates population,households, and employment to the census division level (1970 definitions revised in 1975)from a simulation of the state economic model. Southeast Census Divisions and Bristol Bay Borough Census Divisions are aggregated due to a prior constraint imposed by limited computer capabilities.The model essentially takes cross-sectional information on employment and population and projects the panel forward through time.The regional allocations are affected by variation over time in the location of basic sector and government activity.The total support employment·and dependent population proportions vary over time to maintain consistency with the results of the state model. In developing this model,several major objectives have been addressed as follows: •that the structure be simple and generalizable •that the parameters be specified in terms with clear, intuitive meaning •that the regions be disaggregated to census division levels •that the model be sufficiently flexible to be tied easily to the MAP statewide model As such,the main strength of the model is in providing interregional consistency for any simulation analysis.On the other hand,because it treats each region in quite aggregate form,it cannot substitute for a detailed economic analysis for a particular labor market area,and in general the chance of projection error increases as the size of the census division analyzed declines. The model consists of two components.First,given an exogenous estimate of statewide employment by sector (provided from a corresponding state model run)and vectors of basic and government employment in each of the twenty regions (1970 census division aggregates revised in 1975),the employment component of the model allocates support and total employment to each of the twenty regions.These estimates along with estimates of statewide population and hOllsehol ds (from the statewi de model>are then used to generate regional population and household allocations. Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A84.CD The Employment Component For each of the twenty regions,the model projects three types of employment:basic,government,and support.The basic sector consists of (1)all sectors or portions of sectors treated as exogenous in the state model:agriculture,fisheries,exogenous manufacturing,m1n1ng,exogenous construction,and a portion of transportation,as well as (2)some sectors which are endogenous in the state model:endogenous construction,forestry,miscellaneous, endogenous manufacturing,proprietors,and tourism employment. Government consists of federal civilian and military employees as well as state and local employees.State and local government are endogenous in the state model,but exogenous in the regionalization model.The support sector is defined as all other employment. Total employment (M.aa)in each region aa is the sum of basic (B.aa),government (G.aa),and support (S.aa)employment. M.aa =B.aa +G.aa +S.aa Support employment in any region aa is a function of total employment in every region of the state as follows: bb S.aa =t (A.aa.bb *M.bb)*BETA where A.aa ..bb is t,he _proporti.QD of_suPPQT;'l:,_c _s~cto£~employm.~nt stimulated by an increase in total employment in region bb-which is observed in region aa.The preliminary estimate is adjusted by the parameter BETA (the state ratio of support to total employment)to yield a final figure which,when aggregated,is consistent with the state model simulation.According to this model formulation,an increase in basic or government employment in a single region can, in theory,give rise directly and indirectly to support employment in every other region of the state. The Population Component Population (P.aa)in each region is a function of residence- adjusted employment (MR.aa).This is calculated in two steps . .First,-residence-adjusted employment is-calculated as follows, ··-bb MR.aa =t (IM.aa.bb *M.bb) where MR.aa is residence-adjusted employment and 1M.aa.bb is the proportion of workers employed in region bb (M.bb)who live in region aa.Population is then determined as follows, PRE.aa =PM.aa *MR.aa 2 I J Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A84.CD where PRE.aa is a preliminary population estimate for region aa,and PM.aa is the ratio of population to residence-adjusted employment in region aa.This preliminary estimate is forced to conform in the aggregate to total state population by multiplying through by an adjustment factor (ADJ).This yields a final figure for population by census division (P.aa). P.aa =PRE.aa *ADJ since the 1970 census division boundaries were changed in 1980 and were renamed census areas,the population by 1980 census areas (PCEN.cc)is calculated from the estimates of population by 1970 census divisions (P.aa)as follows: aa PCEN.cc =t (PC.cc.aa *P.aa) where PC.cc.aa is the proportion of population in region aa (1970 census division)allocated to region cc (1980 census area). Population by labor market areas,which are aggregates of the 1980 census areas,is also calculated (PL.dd). From the regional population figures,based upon the 1980 census areas,a preliminary value for the number of households (HPRE.cc) can be calculated as follows: HPRE.cc =(PCEN.cc -PGQ.cc)/HHSZ.cc where PGQ.cc is population in group quarters and HHSZ.cc is average household size in region cc.The preliminary figure is adjusted using the ratio ADJHH for consistency with the state simulation result to yield final households by census areas (HHCEN.cc).In addition,the model produces a set of household estimates for the 1970 census divisions using the same allocation factors as employed in allocating population (HH.aa). 3 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A84.CD 2.Flow Diagram FIGURE 1.MAP REGIONALIZATION_MODEL FLOW DIAGRAM I, \ Scenario Generator and State Model Basic and Govt. Employment *Total Employment by Place of Work Support Employment Total Employment in Other Regions Average Household Size Households· 5 *Cbnsistency adjustment applied to conform with state model simulation result. I, .J Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A84.CD 3.Model Inputs Provided by the Scenario Generator Baa Portion of basic employment in region aa (mining [EMP9],exogenous construction [EMCNX],exogenous manufacturing [EMMX],exogenous transportation [EMT9X],agriculture [EMAGRI],fishing [EMFISH]) Gaa Portion of government employment in region aa (federal civilian and military [EMGC and EMGM]) Provided by MAP State Economic Model EMA9 agriculture-forestry-fisheries employment EMAFISH wage and salary component of fish harvesting employment EMAGRI wage and salary component of agriculture employment EMCN construction employment EMCN1 construction employment net of exogenous construction employment EM99 total wage and salary,nonwage and salary (proprietor),and military employment EMGA state and local government employment EMGF federal civilian and military employment EMM9 manufacturing employment EMMO employment in endogenous manufacturing EMP9 mining employment I t EMPRO total proprietor employment\.) 7 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A84.CD EMPR01 proprietor employment net of fish harvesting EMT9X exogenous (large pipeline project-related) transportation employment EMTOUR total tourism employment HH POP households population 8 j .I 1 1 .I .) Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A84.CD 4.Variable and Parameter Names Variables M.aa MR.aa G.aa B.aa S.aa P.aa PCEN.cc PL.dd HH.aa HHCEN.cc BETA ADJ ADJHH FRS TRY GR.M.aa GR.P.aa Total employment,region aa (EM99) Total ~mployment by place of residence,region aa Government employment,region aa (EMGC,EMGM,EMGS,EMGL) Basic employment,region aa (EMP9,EMCN,EMM9,EMA9,EMTOUR, EMT9X,EMPRO) Support employment,region aa (M.aa -G.aa -B.aa) Populationa ,region aa Population,region cc Population,labor market area dd Households,region aa Householdsb ,region cc Ratio of support to basic employment Ratio of state model population (POP)to initial regionalization model population estimate (PRE.ST) Ratio of state model households (HH)to initial regionalization model household estimate (HPRE.ST) Endogenous manufacturing and forestry employment (EMMO+EMAUN) Annual percent change in employment,region aa Annual percent change in population,region aa Parameters A.aa.bb Proportion of the total support sector employment stimulated by increase in total employment in region bb which occurs in region aa EA.aa.ee Percent of basic employment category ee allocated to region aa aA preliminary population,PRE.aa,is calculated for internal use. bA preliminary household,HPRE.cc,is calculated for internal use. 9 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A84.CD I ] IM.aa.bb Percent of workers employed in region bb who live in region aa PM.aa Ratio of population to residence-adjusted employment in region aa HHSZ.cc PGQ.cc Average household size in 1980 in census area cc Population in group quarters in 1980 in census area cc PC.cc.aa Proportion of population in region aa (1970 census division definiton)allocated to region cc (1980 census area definition) Suffixes aa Aggregated 1970 Census Divisions (Revised 1975) 01 Aleutian Islands 02 Anchorage 04 Barrow/North Slope 05 Bethel 06 Bristol Bay* 08 Cordova/McCarthy 09 Fairbanks 11 Southeast Alaska** 12 Kenai/Cook Inlet 14 Kobuk 15 Kodiak Kuskokwim 17 Matanuska/Susitna 21 Seward *Includes Bristol Bay Borough [07]. **Iricludes Angoon [03],Haines [10],Juneau [11],Ketchikan [13], Outer Ketchikan [19],Prince of Wales [20];··SffKaT22],Skagwayl Yakutat [23],and Wrangell/Petersburg [28]. 10 :1 I I ( I J Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A84.CD 24 Southeast Fairbanks 25 Upper Yukon 26 Valdez/Chitina/Whittier 27 Wade Hampton 29 Yukon/Koyukuk ST RB AG AM NR FG IR State Railbelt =2 +9 +12 +17 +21 +24 +26 Greater Anchorage =2 +12 +17 +21 Anchorage +MatSu =2 +17 Non-Railbelt =ST -RB Greater Fairbanks =9 +24 Intertied Railbelt =RB -26 cc Aggregated 1980 Census Areas 01 North Slope 02 Kobuk 03 Nome II 04 Yukon/Koyukuk II 05 Fairbanks 06 Southeast Fairbanks 07 Wade Hampton 08 Bethel 10 Bristol Bay Borough* 11 Aleutian Islands 12 Matanuska/Susitna 13 Anchorage 14 Kenai Peninsula 15 Kodiak 16 Valdez/Cordova 19 Southeast Alaska** *Includes Dillingham [09J. **Includes Skagway/Yakutat/Angoon [17J,Haines [18J,Juneau [19J, Sitka [20J,Wrangell/Petersburg [21J,Prince of Wales/Outer Ketchikan [22J,and Ketchikan Borough [23J. 11 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A84.CD dd 1980 Labor Market Areas ANCMS SEAST INTER NORTH GULF SWEST Anchorage-Matanuska/Susitna =12,13 Southeast =17,18, 19,20, 21,22,23 Interior =5,6 +Yukon Flats,Koyukuk net of Middle Yukon subareas of Yukon/Koyukuk North =1,2,3 Gulf Coast =14, 15,16 Southwest =7,8,9,10,11 +McGrath-Holy Cross census subareas of Yukon/Koyukuk ee Employment Categories CN endogenous construction (EMCN1) FR forestry (FRSTRY) PR nonfishing proprietors (EMPR01) TR tourism (EMTOUR) GA state and local government (EMGA) 12 I -I ( ! ( j ,I { 1I. I ! Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A84.CD 5.Parameter Values A.Average Household Size (HHSZ.cc)and Population in Group Quarters (PGQ.cc) These parameters are calculated from the 1980 census as shown in Table 1. TABLE 1.HOUSEHOLD SIZE AND POPULATION IN GROUP QUARTERS BY 1980 CENSUS AREAS Population in Average Group Quarters Ii 1980 Census Areas Household Size (PGQ.cc) (Aggregated)(HHSZ.cc)(thousands) 1 North Slope 3.91 .365 2 Kobuk 4.2 .048 3 Nome 3.7 .088 II 4 Yukon/Koyukuk 3.18 .614 I,) 5 Fairbanks 2.78 3.339 6 Southeast Fairbanks 3.16 .399 7 Wade Hampton 4.87 .055 8 Bethel 4.05 .118 10 Bristol Bay Borough*3.68 .339 11 Aleutian Islands 3.27 2.548 12 Matanuska/Susitna 3.06 .324 13 Anchorage 2.80 4.848 14 Kenai Peninsula 2.92 .32 15 Kodiak 3.06 .681 16 Valdez/Cordova 2.84 .702 19 Southeast Alaska**2.89 1.418 *Includes Dillingham **Includes Skagway/Yakutat/Angoon,Haines,Juneau,Sitka,Wrangell/ Petersburg,Prince of Wales/Outer Ketchikan,and Ketchikan i j SOURCE:1980 Census of Population 13 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A84.CD B.Basic Employment Regional Allocation (EA.aa.ee) Five industries are endogenous in the state model and are treated as basic and allocated regionally in the regional model based upon historical shares.Construction,forestry,and government (state and local)are allocated on the basis of observed employment shares in those industries from the Statistical Quarterly.Tourism is allocated on the basis of data from past state studies of the tourist industry.Proprietors is based upon historical data on the distribution of proprietors from the Bureau of Economic·Analysis,net of.fishermen... 14 J 15 Institute of Social and Economic Research HAP Documentation December 1984.Mode 1 AB4.CD Institute of social! and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A84.CD C.Interregional Employment Interaction Matrix (A.aa.bb) The basic data source was regional employment for 1979 from the Alaska Department of Labor publications,specifically Statistical Quarterly and Alaska Economic Trends.The breakdown of employment by basic,government,and support sectors is shown in Table 3 for 1979. Since the major concern of the regional model is to capture the effect of support sector demands which are supplied in regions other than the one giving rise to such demands,rather than to examine the effects of differential support demands across reglons,it seems plausible,or at least not overly restrictive,to impose the condition that the ratio of support employment generated by a unit of basic employment is the same wherever the basic employment occurs.The difference between regions,then,is solely the difference in the locations from which these demands will be supplied. This assumption has the obvious disadvantage that it neglects real interregional differences in demand for support sector services.However,it also has several advantages which may more than compensate for this shortcoming.Most obviously,it reduces the estimation problem by n-1 parameters.More importantly,it is extremely valuable as a tool for maintaining consistency with the statewide MAP model,in both a static and a dynamic sense. CurrEmtly,a unit of .basic sector employment int1:le st.ate mQd.§'l,ha~ the same static employment impact regardless of its location in the state.Regionally varying support/basic ratios would produce differing total statewide static impacts by location,thus being inconsistent with the state model.Furthermore,the introduction of BETA (the ratio of support to total employment from the state model) exogenously provides a valuable tool for maintaining dynamic consistency between the models.By letting BETA vary with time so as to reflect the corresponding state model simulation,we both --force lhe···mafrix{A:aa.-:bbr-··tovaryover··time··t6reflect·-the same ----aegree ors-t:ructur:,f1-cnange rep-res-ent-ed--by .tlre~stat·e-mode-l~and-force the employment totals to replicate the statewide results. The major reason that not all support sector requirements are supplied internally within the region is that it would be more costly to do so than to secure those services from a different region.It is onlynatural,then"thatthe cost of supply should be t1:le maj or determining factor in deciding to which other regions to allocate the supply.Such costs as transportation,communication, etc.are generally expected to increase with distance and to decrease with the size of the support sector source for the region. We hypothesize that the location of support services is chosen in such a way as to minimize the costs of providing the required services observed in region bb from each of the sources of such supply 13.13..Cost between locations is an increasing function of distance and an inverse function of employment in the supplying region. 16 j Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A84.CD TABLE 3.EMPLOYMENT COMPOSITION,1979 Region-Adjusted 1970 Census Divisions 1 Aleutian Islands 2 Anchorage 4 Barrow/North Slope 5 Bethel 6 Bristol Bay* 8 Cordova/McCarthy 9 Fairbanks 11 Southeast Alaska** 12 Kenai/Cook Inlet 14 Kobuk 15 Kodiak 16 Kuskokwim 17 Matanuska/Susitna 18 Nome 21 Seward Support 377 43,936 594 1,917 839 381 10,627 8,142 2,529 402 1,472 123 1,441 1,077 414 Basic1 2,463 15,296 3,467 420 1,778 1,027 4,148 10,617 3,854 114 3,803 13 624 304 728 Government 2 3,264 34,009 1,514 1,360 1,197 344 12,801 11,081 1,481 935 2,051 435 1,345 980 390 Total3 6,104 93,241 5,575 3,697 3,814 1,752 27,576 29,840 7,864 1,451 7,326 571 3,410 2,361 1,532 24 Southeast Fairbanks 240 25 Upper Yukon 99 26 Valdez/Chitina/ Whittier 253 27 Wade Hampton 208 29 Yukon/Koyukuk 506 ST statewide 79,977 149 25 1,140 236 807 46,613 1,636 302 927 595 1,208 77 ,855 2,025 426 2,320 1,039 2,521 204,445 1Mining,manufacturing,construction,agriculture-forestry- fisheries,proprietors,tourism,and exogenous transportation [EMP9+EMM9+EMCN+EMA9+EMPRO+EMTOUR+EMT9X]. 2Federal,state,and local government [EMGF+EMGA]. 3Total wage and salary,nonwage and salary (proprietor),and military [EM99]. *Includes Bristol Bay and Bristol Bay Borough Census Divisions **Includes the following Census Divisions:Angoon,Haines,Juneau, Ketchikan,Outer Ketchikan,Prince of Wales,Sitka,Skagway/Yakutat, and Wrangell/Petersburg. SOURCE:Alaska Economic Projections for Electricity Requirements for the Railbelt,ISER,1981,adjusted.Based on regional data archive CDM. 17 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A84.CD The A.aa.bb matrix was estimated by a linear programming routine for the problem of minimizing the cost of service delivery using 1979 data.The matrix was recalibrated in 1984 using data for 1983 by iterative adjustment of individual elements while maintaining column sums.In addition,four of the matrix elements were converted from parameters to exogenous variables so that their values could trend over time.This allows the Matanuska/Susitna Borough to accrue an increasing portion of its own support activities over time. The matrix,which we call the interregional employment interaction matrix,is presented in Table 4.Each entry represents the share of support requirements for region bb supplied from region aa.Each of the columns,therefore,must sum to unity. Thus,a quick glance down each column provides a subjective test of the plausibility of the matrix.!priori,one would expect nonzero entries in all of the diagonal elements and along the rows of the regional support centers and probably along the entire row corresponding to Anchorage,which is a statewide support center . The pattern is as would have been expected.All diagonal terms are nonzero,with the -larger support centers being self-suf-ficient vis-a-vis the rest of the state (having diagonal entries close to unity).Anchorage and Fairbanks are the most significant support centers,with Anchorage supplying most regions and Fairbanks supplying Kuskokwim,Upper Yukon,and Yukon/Koyukuk.Three local support centers emerge with Bethel supporting Wade Hampton,Nome supporting Kobuk,and Kenai supporting Kodiak.In addition, Matanuska/Susitnaprovides.some"supporttoAnchot"age. A complete description of the methodology used to derive this matrix appears in Alaska Economic Projections for Estimat.ing Electricity Requirements for the Railbelt,ISER. 18 .! Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation Decerrber 1984,Model A84.CD TABLE 4.INTERREGIONAL EMPLOYMENT INTERACTION MATRIX (A.aa.bb) Demand Region Supply Region 01 02 04 05 06 08 09 11 12 14 15 16 17 18 21 24 25 26 27 29 01 Aleutian Islands .25 02 Anchorage .75 .97 .6 .44 .2 .05 .33 .05 0 .4 .2 .28 .7 .6 .15 04 Barrow .4 05 Bethel l..49 06 Bristol Bay .56 08 Cordova/Mccarthy .8 09 Fairbanks .95 .2 .8 .15 11 Southeast Alaska .67 12 Kenai/Cook Inlet .95 .1 14 Kobuk .8 15 Kodiak .5 16 Kuskokwim .8 17 Matanuska/Susitna .03 .8 18 Nome .2 l. 21 Seward .72 24 S.E.Fairbanks .3 25 Upper Yukon .2 26 Va1dez/ChitinalWhittier .4 29 Yukon/Koyukuk 19 .70 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A84.CD D.IM.aa.bb Interregional Residence Adjustment Matrix The interregional residence adjustment matrix calculates the place of residence of workers employed in Alaska.It is an expanded and refined version of the Interregional Wage and Employee Flow Matrix constructed for the econometric model of Anchorage (see Municipality of Anchorage:Economic Modeling Project,ISER,1982, p.11-24). Four sources of information are used to construct the matrix. The first is the U.S.Census data on commuting which provides information on the proportion of residents in a region who are employed outside the region.The second is an analysis of tax returns by Alaskan places which,when compared to wages and salaries earned by place of work,provides a comparison of wages earned by workers in a region and workers living in a region.The third is the residency adjustment figures of the Bureau of Economic Analysis which provides another estimate of the ratio of wage and salary income earned in a region to resident wage _and salary income.The fourth is the preliminary results of a special census for oil-related work sites on Alaska t s North Slope conducted by the Alaska Department of Labor which reports usual place of residence of oil field employees.This census provided the basis for the column vector of the matrix for Barrow,after adjustment for non-oil- related employment on the North Slope. The first step was calculation of the diagonal elements--the proportion of employment in each region done by residents of the region.This involved the following equation: IM.aa.aa =(1-%)*WR WP where %is the proportion of workers reporting employment outside .............'·tneir ..census areaoffesidence"iii 1980 (1980C'ensusTaole'36',STF3); "-'---"'-"-WR-1s'wages"reported-Dy'resioent:~fontneirT978--income-tax returns (Federal Income Taxpayer Profile 1978,Alaska Department of Revenue, 1981);and WP is wages and salaries paid -in 1978 by labor market area (Statistical Quarterly,Alaska Department of Labor).The resulting parameter is net of both outflows of wages by nonresidents and inflows of wages by commuting residents.Table 5 shows the ratio of wages reported to wages paid in 1978 and demonstrates a' considerable amount of job commuting,particularly iricerta.in census divisions.Table 6 is a further indication of the amOunt of out-of-state job commuting which occurs in Alaska. Filling in the other cells of the matrix involved a judgmental approach because the available data left too many degrees of freedom to specify values for the 360 remaining cells. 20 ,1 1 .j Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A84.CD TABLE 5.WAGES PAID BY LOCATION AND WAGES EARNED BY RESIDENTS IN 1978 (million $) 191.9 1,737.3 532.6 102.6 32.6 2.4 41.0 8.8 73.1 26.1 )! Census Division Matanuska/Susitna Kobuk Skagway/Yakutat Haines . Kenai/Cook Inlet Upper Yukon Valdez/Chitina/ Whittier Wade Hampton Seward Bethel Juneau -Anchorage Fairbanks Ketchikan Nome Angoon Wrangell/Petersburg Kuskokwim Sitka Southeast Fairbanks Bristol Bay Outer Ketchikan Kodiak Yukon/Koyukuk Cordova/McCarthy Prince of Wales Bristol Bay Br. Aleutian Islands Barrow/North Slope (1) Wages a Paid 52.5 15.5 12.5 6.8 147.3 5.5 40.7 8.7 20.2 36.0 17.8 8.4 86.7 54.4 21.8 14.7 13.9 85.3 237.3 (2) wages b Reported by Residents 110.4 21.5 14.6 7.4 160.4 6.0 44.3 9.0 19.1 31.7 169.0 1,513.2 459.0 86.6 27.3 2.0 33.6 6.9 56.7 19.4 13.0 5.9 60.6 32.8 12.6 7.5 5.7 14.5 27.0 (2)-(1) Net Inflo (Outflo) 58.2 6.0 2.1 0.6 13.1 0.5 3.6 0.3 (1.1) (4.3) (22.9) (224.1) (73.6) (16.0) (5.3) (0.4) (7.4) (1.9) (16.4) (6.7) (4.8) (2.5) (26.1) (21.6) (9.2) (7.2) (8.2) (70.8) (210.3) (3)/(1) Wages Reported as Percent of Wages Paid 211 139 117 110 109 109 109 103 95 88 88 87 86 84 84 83 82 79 78 74 73 70 70 60 58 51 41 17 11 I'II Alaska 3,634.1 2,977.9 united States 1,102,062.0 1,092,000.0 (656.2) (10,062.0) 82 99 au.S.Department of Commerce,Bureau of Economic Analysis. Alaska Department of Revenue,Federal Income Taxpayers Profile 1978,December 1981. 21 TABLE 6.NON-ALASKAN TAXPAYERS BY PLACE IN RANK ORDER ( I ! I J j l I J ! j I .( ( i I ( Number of State Taxpayers 27.Kansas 340 27.North Carolina 340 29.Ohio 335 30.Massachusetts 326 31-Alabama 310 32.Wyoming 302 33.Maryland 285 34.New Jersey 280 35.Mississippi 230 35.Tennessee 230 37.Nebraska 223 38.Indiana 216 39.North Dakota 207 40.Iowa 199 41-South Carolina 186 42.Kentucky 174 43.South Dakota 166 44.~Q!lnecticut -~-----"-'----'.~-'----"-~"--'-" 146 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A84.CD Number of State Taxpayers 1-Washington 18,259 2.California 7,480 3.Oregon 4,588 4.Texas 1,760 5.Idaho 1,244 6.Colorado 1,241 7.Arizona 1,216 8.Montana 1,168 9.Florida 1,033 10.Minnesota 857 11-Oklahoma 795 12.New York 770 13.Michigan 611 14.Utah 585 15.Hawaii 557 16.New Mexico 542 17.Virginia 534 20.Illinois 469 46.New Hampshire 94 21-Missouri 450 47.West Virginia 88 22.Louisiana 448 48.Vermont 80 23.Nevada 417 49.District of Columbia 43 24.Georgia 405 50.Delaware 40 -~-'- 25.Pennsylvania 382 51-Rhode Island 39 26.Arkansas 373 1.S.QtheJ:"C::Q1,1ntJ:"Y_,5'l.~ .....--·---~~-··-~-----19.-Wisconsin---------505 ------..45.-Ma-ine- SOURCE:State of Alaska,Department of Revenue,Permanent Fund Dividends 1979 Community Profile,pp.84-89. 22 I \ ( Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984.Model A84.CD The full matrix is shown in Table 7.Off-diagonal-elements are best understood by considering a column where each element represents the percentage of employees who commute to the row census ,area.To determine these elements,three assumptions are made. First,Alaskan residents earn no wage income outside of Alaska. Second,non-Alaskan residents can earn wage income in Alaska. Third,based upon a general knowledge of the state,certain elements can be assumed to be zero,thus reducing the number of degrees of freedom for the problem considerably.The matrix was then regionally aggregated into seven regions,and the wage income earned by nonresidents in each region was allocated to the other six and out of the state so that each column summed to one and each row completely allocated all earned income.The resulting parameters were then split into the twenty regions proportionately.except in a few instances where judgment about local conditions resulted in an adjustment. 23 01 Aleutian Islands .41 02 Anchorage .09 .86 .38 .09 .09 .02 .02 .02 .09 .02 04 Barrow .08 05 Bethel 0 .86 .02 TABLE 7.INTERREGIONAL RESIDENCE ADJUSTMENT MATRIX (IM.aa.bb) Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation Decenber 1984.Model A84.CD i I ! ! j l I .J I ! J i ( [ ( I j .61 o 0 0 .39 25 26 27 29 .05 .005 .80 .69 .79 .83 .75 .01 .79 17 18 21 24 o .21 .17 .25 .74 .93 .01 .02 .69 .02 .78 12 14 15 16 .01 .97 .02 .44 .12 .22 .01 .35 .43 .14 .16 0 0 .26 .07 *COO!Ponentsllla.Y not sllril to total due to rounding. Place of Work Out of Alaska Total Residentia1*.56.88 .78 .99 .65 .58 .86 .84 Place of Residence 01 02 04 05 06 08 09 11 06 Bristol Bay .5 08 Cordova/Mccarthy .55 09 Fairbanks .16 .86 11 Southeast Alaska .01 .84 12 Kenai/ Cook Inlet .02 .06 .02 .02 14 Kobuk .01 15 Kodiak .02 .02 16 Kuskokwim ~.J}.MatanuskaL Susitna .02 .02 .06 .02 .02 .01 18 Nome .0 21 Seward 24 S.E.Fairbanks .01 25 Upper Yukon 26 Valdez/Chitina/ Whittier .01 24 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A84.CD E.Ratio of Population to Residence-Adjusted Employment (PM.aa) The relationship between residence-adjusted employment and population is difficult to accurately specify because of the lack of information about residence-adjusted employment and the difference between population estimates,which are point in time,and employment estimates,which are annual averages.Table 8,from the 1980 census,illustrates the variation in possible ratios both across regions and within regions using different definitions of employment.In regions with more seasonal employment,the ratio can vary by 100 percent,depending upon whether the employment definition is "currently working"or "worked during the year." Since most employment information is monthly or annual average,the proper ratio using average annual resident employment and July 1 census population should lie somewhere between the two extremes shown in Table 8. This parameter is calculated in Table 9 as the ratio of population to employment.We use the most recent population estimate of the Department of Labor.The population data is "backward"adjusted to a labor-market basis using PC.cc.aa to be consistent with employment data by labor markets.Employment by place of residence is estimated by running the interregional residence adjustment matrix,IM.aa.bb,applied to estimated 1983 employment by place of work. 25 Institute of Social and Economic Research HAP Documentation December 1984.Model A84.CD TABLE 8.RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN EMPLOYMENT AND POPULATION ~loyment Population/Employment Ratios [2] [1]Worked in [3/1][3/2] ~loyed 1979 [3]Population/Population/ 1980 census Area (16 Years +)(16 .Years +)Population ~loyed Worked in 1979 Aleutian Islands 2.432 5.160 7.768 3.19 1.51 Anchorage 77.754 103.628 174.431 2.24 1.68 Bethel 3.013 4.767 10.999 3.65 2.31 Bristol Bay 282 798 1.094 3.88 1.37 Dillingham 1.308 2.207 4.616 3.53 2.09 Fairbanks N.S.Bar.20.811 31.093 53.983 2.59 1.74 Haines 731 949 1.680 ..2.30 1.77 Juneau 10.360 12.151 19.528 1.88 1.61 Kenai Peninsula 9.622 13.318 25.282 2.63 1.90 Ketchikan 5.410 6.366 11.316 2.09 1.78 Kobuk 1.206 2.122 4.831 4.01 2.28 Kodiak 4.365 6.059 9.939 2.28 1.64 ..Matimuskalsu~sn;na -6:471 ··~530 ···17.8-16-Z:75--2~~09 Nome 1.831 2.991 6.537 3.57 2.19 North Slope Borough 1.734 2.336 4.199 2.42 1.80 Prince of Wales/ Outer Ketchikan 1.616 2.061 3.822 2.37 1.85 Sitka 3.626 4.577 7.803 2.15 1.70 Skagway/Yakutat/ .Angoon 1.294 .1,928 3,478-2~.69 ·1.80 --~----"---~---_._-----_.~-·Southeast-~a';l"banks~·~--1.5l9--....~--2.96.1----.--5.676-~--~3.-7A~..___L92. Valdez/COrdova 3.701 4.710 8.348 2.26 1.77 Wade HaJll>ton 964 1.844 4.665 4.84 2.53 Wrangell/Petersburg 2.800 3.596 6.167 2.20 1.71 Yukon/Koyukuk 2.018 4.170 7.873 3.90 1.89 SOURCE:U.S.Bureau of Census.General Soci a1 and Economic Characteri stics.Alaska (~loyment:Table 177.Worked in 1979:Table 180;Population:Table 171) 26 ./ j j ,I I I j ( 1 J I ( i ! I j j '\ Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A84.CD TABLE 9.POPULATION-TO-RESIDENT EMPLOYMENT RATIOS FOR 1982 )(1970 MAP-Adjusted Census Divisions) I Region 1983 Estimated Residence- Adjusted Employmenta July 1, 1983, Populationb July 1 Census Population per Average Annual Employed Resident (PM.aa) 01 Aleutian Islands 2.884 9.114 3.167 02 Anchorage 107.796 227.070 2.099 04 Barrow/North Slope .817 5.168 6.326 05 Bethel 3.637 10.764 2.948 06 Bristol Bay*2.057 6.279 3.026 08 Cordova/McCarthy .893 2.722 3.055 09 Fairbanks 31.160 64.810 2.152 11 Southeast Alaska**28.954 64.658 2.236 12 Kenai/Cook Inlet 11.668 31.052 2.660 14 Kobuk 1.912 5.759 2.999 15 Kodiak 5.610 12.896 2.334 16 Kuskokwim .578 2.936 4.976 17 Matanuska/Susitna 9.397 29.849 3.168 18 Nome 2.139 7.661 3.568 21 Seward 1.263 3.838 3.041 24 Southeast Fairbanks 1.596 6.192 3.974 25 Upper Yukon .494 1.793 3.558 26 Valdez/Chitina/ Whittier 2.902 7.000 2.414 27 Wade Hampton 1.233 5.294 4.269 29 Yukon/Koyukuk 1.581 5.699 3.331 Total 510.554 aBased on estimated 1983 employment by place of work and residence-adjustment matrix IM.aa.bb. bAlaska Population Overview 1983 adjusted to 1970 MAP-adjusted census divisions using matrix PC.cc.aa. *Includes Bristol Bay and Bristol Bay Borough Census Divisions. **Includes the following census divisions:Angoon,Haines, Juneau,Ketchikan,Outer Ketchikan,Prince of Wales,Sitka,Skagway/ Yakutat,and Wrangell/Petersburg. 27 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model'A84.CD F.Allocation of Population from 1970 Census Divisions to 1980 Census Areas (PC.cc.aa) Population is allocated in the regionalization model both by 1970 census divisions (adjusted in 1975)and by 1980 census areas. Conversion factors from the 1970 base to the 1980 base are based upon the 1980 population,for which regional allocations are available based upon both the 1970 and 1980 census boundaries. These allocations are shown in the left portion of Table 10.The right side of Table 10 shows how the population by 1970 census divisions must be reassigned to determine regional population by 1980 census areas.The reassignment affects 12,228 people who are added to census areas and subtracted from census areas.This process includes both the aggregation of some census divisions and the redrawing of some boundaries. Based upon Table 10,the allocations used in the model were developed and are presented in Table 11. ! j I I I J ...1 ! j I I l ..J 'j I 28 \ \___L...- Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A84.CD TABLE 10.FACTORS FOR CONVERSION OF 1970 CENSUS DIVISIONS (UPDATED 1975)TO 1980 CENSUS AREAS 1980 Population Conversion Factors (1970 to 1980) 1970 cersus Division 1980 Census Area Add From Subtract To (01 )Aleutian Islands 8,290 7,768 Aleutian Islands [11]-[09]Dillingham 522 ~g~}Anchorag 174,431 174,431 Anchorage [13]--Angoon 712 0 -[17]Skagway-Yakutat-Angoon 712 ~04 Barrow N rth Slope 4,199 4,199 North Slope Borough mj - 05)Bethel 9,698 10,999 Bethel (16)Kuskokwim 1,301 06~Bristol ay Borough 1,094 1,094 Bristol Bay Borough flO -07 Bristol ay 4,094 4,616 Dillingham 09 (01 )Aleutians 522 08~Cordova-cCarthy 2,330 0 -[16]Valdez-Cordova 2,330 09 Fairbanks 53,983 53,983 Fairbanks Borough f~~j -- IOj Haines 1,815 1,680 Haines -[17]Skagway-Yakutat-Angoon 135 N {H Juneau 19,528 19,528 Juneau ml - \0 Kenai-C ok Inlet 22,473 25,282 Kenai Peninsula (21 )Seward 2,809 Ketchik n 11,316 11,316 Ketchikan (14)Kobuk 4,831 4,831 Kobuk (15)Kodiak 9,939 9,939 Kodiak Island [15] (16).Kuskokwi 2,644 0 -tg~j Bethel 1,301 Yukon-Koyukuk 1,343 H~~Matanusk a-Susitna 17,816 17,816 Matanuska-Susitna t6~jNome6,537 6,537 Nome g5~Outer K tchikan 1,333 0 -[22]Prince of Wales 1,333 Prince f Wales 2,489 3,822 Pr/Wales-Outer Ketch.[22](19)Outer Ketchikan 1,333 - g~}Seward 2,809 0 -Uij Kenai Peninsula Bor.2,809 Sitka 7,889 7,803 Sitka [20]-Wrangell-Petersburg 86 (23 Skagway Yakutat 2,631 3,478 Skagway-Yakutat-Angoon [17]{~~~Angoon 712 Haines 135 ~~~~Southea t Fairbanks 5,415 5,676 Southeast Fairbanks [06]Upper Yukon 303 f6~j Valdez-Cordova 42 Upper Y kon 1,516 0 -Southeast Fairbanks 303 [04]Yukon-Koyukuk 1,312 (26)Valdez-hitina-Whit.5,976 8,348 Valdez-Cordova [16](08)Cordova-McCarthy 2,330 (24)S.E.Fairbanks 42 (27)Wade Ha pton 4,665 4,665 Wade Hampton [07]- (28)Wrangell -Petersburg 6,081 6,167 Wrangell-Petersburg [21](22)Sitka 86 (29)Yukon-K yukuk 5,218 7,873 Yukon-Koyukuk [04](16)Kuskokwim 1,343 (25)Upper Yukon 1,312 TOTAL I 401,851 401,851 12,228 12,228 TABLE 11.ALLOCATION OF 1970 CENSUS DIVISION POPULATION (aa) TO 1980 CENSUS AREA (cc)[PC.cc.aa] Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A84.CD '~l-7 '~MatanuskaISus i-tna~-PG .1-2-.·1-7 --,-~·--1 Adjusted MAP Census Division (aa)·Variable j ] ') j J J j '\l '~ ] j ] I ! 'J ! Bethel Yukon/Koyukuk Aleutian Islands Bristol Bay Valdez/Cordova S.E.Fairbanks Yukon/Koyukuk . S.E.Fairbanks 1980 Census Area (cc) .01 .99 .87 .13 .49 .Sl .94 .06 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Proportion PC.1S.1S PC.01.04 PC.02.14 PC.14.21 PC.14.12 PC.16.08 PC.08.16 PC.04.16 PC.12.17 PC.16.24 PC.06.24 PC.04.2S PC.06.2S PC.OS.09 PC.08.0S PC.19.11 PC.11.01 PC.10.01 PC.13.02 PC.10.06 2 Anchorage 1 Aleutian Islands 4 Bar+,ow S Bethel 8 Cordova/McCarthy 9 Fairbanks 6 Bristol Bay/Bor. 21 Seward 24 S.E.Fairbanks 16 Kuskokwim 2S Upper Yukon 14 Kobuk 11 Southeast (Juneau,etc.) 12 Kenai/Cook Inlet 1S Kodiak 18 Nome 26 Valdez/Chitina/ Whittier 27 Wade Hampton 29 Yukon/Koyukuk PC.16.26 PC.07.27 PC.04.29 30 1 1 1 ] J ! ] r 1 1~1 j IJ IJ Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A84.CD 6.Hodel Validation The regionalization model has been initialized on 1983 population (Table 12)and a preliminary estimate of 1983 employment. Because accurate historical data on interregional commuter patterns and a complete historical data set on basic employment by region are not available,it is not possible to do a historical simulation using the regionalization model.It is possible to compare the historical trends in the regional distribution of employment and population with the projections. Since 1970,the proportion of state employment occurring in the railbelt has remained remarkably constant (Table 13).The proportion has ranged between 66.9 and 69.8 percent.The concentration of population in the railbelt has been comparable during the 1970s, growing from 66 percent in 1970 to 68.9 percent in 1980 (Table 14). In the prior decade,there appears to have been a more significant shift of population toward the railbelt.The initial year simulation values for employment and population are consistent with the historical trends. 31 Institute of Social and Economic Research HAP Documentation Decerrber 1984,Hodel A84.CD 2This is based on the formation of the North Slope Borough in 1975.Barrow/North Slope and Kobuk figures are equal to 1980 census area values and Upper Yukon is calculated as a residual. 1A1aska Planning Information,Jan.1984,p.8.· TABLE 12.CURRENT POPULATION DISTRIBUTION (USING 1970 CENSUS DIVISIONS ADJUSTED IN 1975) I J I j ] J ,j ] j j J ] j ] j 1 510,554 19823 19834 9,042 9,114 200,503 227,070 4,849 5,168 9,964 10,764 5,451 6,279 2.647 2,722 59,222 64,810 59,201 64,658 28,912 31,052 5,090 5,759 12,714 12,896 2,709 2,936 25,tr2 t9~949· 7,459 7,661 3,573 3,838 5.755 6,192 1,653 1,793 6,807 7,000 4,832 ..5,·294 5,242.5,699_. 460,837 Region 1980 (Adjusted 1970 By 1970 census Divisions)census Divisions 1 19802 1 Aleutians 8,290 8,290 2 Anchorage 174,431 174,431 4 Barrow/North Slope 3,320 4,199 5 Bethel 9,698 9,698 6 Bristol Bay 5,188 5,188 8 COrdova/McCarthy 2,330 2,330 9 Fairbanks 53,983 53,983 n Southeast Alaska 53,794 53,794 12 Kenai/Cook Inlet 22,473 22,473 14 Kobuk 5,295 4,831 15 Kodiak 9,939 9,939 16 Kuskokwim 2,644 2,644 ff Mabil'luska--Susi tna r1~916 17,9l6 18 Nome 6,537 6,537 21 Seward 2,809 2,809 24 Southeast Fairbanks 5,415 5,415 25 Upper Yukon 2,030 1,516 26 Valdez/Chitina/Whittier 5,976 5,976 -..-_.....•--.-_.._-•..•..-..2'1-Wade Hampton 4-,665 4,665 .--"-----_._-_._~._-----_...29-"fukont'Koyukuk 5.218-5.218 401,851 401,851 July 1 State Total 419,700 3A1aska Population Overview,1982,adjusted using matrix PC.cc.aa. 4A1aska Population Overview,1983,adjusted using matrix PC.cc.aa. 32 ,-----i----~-_.._~....__._._._<"l......;.-_:_:--'-----;Inst'.-..u-..~of'----;:,"''''-,'a 1 and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A84.CD TABLE 13.REGIONAL EMPLOYMENT DISTRIBUTION (percentage of state) 1983* 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 (proj.) Anchbrage (M.02)44.1 45.5 46.3 46.3 45.8 43.9 43.3 46.8 47.3 46.8 46.7 47.0 48.1 46.5 Ma'fkalSusina(M.17)1.2 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.7 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.3 Anch rage and at/Su 45.3 46.8 47.7 47.8 47.2 45.2 44.7 48.5 49.3 48.8 48.8 49.1 50.4 48.9 ook 3.5 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.2 3.5 4.1 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.3 I'"IL.J Seward (M.21)0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 ww Ken f and Seward 4.2 4.0 3.9 4.0 4.0 3.9 4.1 4.8 4.5 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.9 Sout central 49.4 50.8 51.6 51.8 51.2 49.1 48.8 53.3 53.8 53.5 53.4 53.8 55.1 53.8 (M.9)17.5 16.7 15.9 14.9 15.7 17.7 16.4 15.6 14.1 13.7 13.3 13.3 13.2 13.4 (M.24)0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 1.4 1.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 ,ailanks and S.E.Fairbanks 18.3 17.3 16.6 15.6 16.2 19.1 18.1 16.5 15.0 14.8 14.3 14.3 14.1 14.3 elt 67.7 68.1 68.2 67.4 67.4 68.2 66.9 69.8 68.8 68.2 67.7 68.0 69.2 68.1 Bala ce of State 32.3 31.9 31.8 32.6 32.6 31.8 33.1 30.2 31.2 31.8 32.3 32.0 30.8 31.9 Stat Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Simulation UP85.16R 34 HISTORICAL DATA SOURCE:U.S.census. PROJECTION DATA SOURCE:Simulation UP8516.R -,I J , :J j ] "I 'j j ] ] ] j ] 'j ] ] j I State P.ST 510.484 302.583 400.481 226.167 199.670 66.0 140.486 62.1 363.478 71.2 275.818 68.9 Railbelt P.IR Institute of Social and Economic Research HAP Documentation December 1984,Model A84.CD 5.7.70 1.4 6.328 1.2 4.326 1.4 2.323 1 53.983 13.5 66.904 13.1 45.864 15.2 4.1.089 18.2 Southeast Fairbanks Fairbanks P.09 P.24 9.053 4 16.586 5.5 34.799 6.8 25.282 6.3 Kenai,Cook Inlet and Seward P.12 +P.21 TABLE 14.REGIONAL POPULATION DISTRIBUTION (thousand) 5.188 2.3 6.509 2.2 17.766 4.4 29.7 5.8 Matanuska- Susitna P.17 Anchorage P.02 Historical 1983 '(proJect ion) Number 225.747 ,of State 44.2 1970 Number 126.385 ,of State 41.8 1980 Number 173.017 ,of State 43.2 1960 Number 82.833 ,of State 36.6 11 I I \ J I 1Ij I , 1..J IJ Institute of Soci.al and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A84.CD Model calibration has concentrated upon the structure of the interregional support sector demand matrix.(A.aa.bb).Preliminary model runs for 1983 indicated that recalibration was necessary since the prior calibration had been done in 1979.Two analyses were done to gauge the degree of structural change across regions.They involved a comparison among regions of the change in percentage of statewide support to statewide basic employment over two periods: 1965 to 1979 and 1979 to 1983.The results are shown as Figures 2 and 3. Figure 2 shows that between 1965 and 1979 the proportion of state total support sector growth.in most regions was consistent with the proportion of state total basic sector growth (observations falling on the diagonal line).Four outliers show up.In two regions,the "multiplier"grew relative to the state.In Anchorage (02),the share of support employment increased while the share of basic fell.In Fairbanks (09),shares of both types of employment fell,but support by less.In two others,the multiplier fell relative to the state.southeast (11)experienced an increase in basic and a decrease of support employment.Barrow/North Slope (04)experienced an increase in the share of basic and no change in the share of support. Figure 3 shows that between 1979 and 1983 these trends have continued for Anchorage and Southeast.The "multiplier"for Bethel (05)has declined while for the Aleutians (01)it has grown. To account for these trends,four elements of the interregional support sector demand matrix have been trended.The purpose is to reflect the shift in support activities from Southeast to Anchorage (A.02.11 and A.ll.ll)and to reflect a shift from Anchorage to Matanuska/Susitna (A.02.02 and A.17.02). 35 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A84.CD Figure 2.:Proportion of Support to Basic Employment by Region: Ratio of Change 1965-1979 D 8 A ] 1 ·1 6 B 52 -3 • -5 -4 -6 3 • 4 _(o~) ~_""-;;I:-+--'-'-""",,,",~8.in %of Basic.Employment in State (,,2.)• C1l 7.u til.u tr.l I=l 6.r-!" .u I=l C1l ~5 0 ..-l .~ .r:t:l 4.u l-l 0p.. !t 3 tr.l 4-1 0 ~2 -2"-3-4-5 C -6 Note:Numbers correspond to 1970 Census Divisions. 36 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A84.CD Figure 3.:Proportion of Support to Basic Employment by Region: Ratio of Change 1979-83 A B 2 3 -2 ..CH,)2 (~)..(Ill).... (:L("(15")6 in %of Basic Employment in State ~o •(II) .. (02.) (0') -2 C DIl i j --------ilNe-ee-:---Nnmbers correspond to 1970 CensliS Divisions. 37 A84RUNCD A85PREG1 A85PREG2 CDTAB7 CDTAB8 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A84.CD 7.Programs for Model Use This MACRO takes output from a simulation using the state economic model and inputs provided by the scenario generator on basic and government sector employment by census division and runs the regionalization model. This MACRO prints initial values for population and employment for model calibration. This MACRO prints summary output for Anchorage and the Railbelt. This MACRO prints employment for each region. This MACRO prints population for each region. 38 ,1 i I !1 I J -1 J I .I 1 .I " Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A84.CD 8.Model Listing MODEL:A84.CD REVISION HISTORY:VERSION A83.CD IS PRECURSOR. A84.CD REVISED '10/21 TO REMOVE UNNEEDED ZERO-VALUED ENTRIES IN A.AA.BB AND IM.AA.BB MATRICES.REVISED 10/31/84 TO ADD INTER- MEDIATE OUTPUTS MR.NN AND AGGREGATE POPULATION FROM CENSUS LEVEL INTO LABOR MARKET REGIONS. SYMBOL DECLARATIONS ENDOGENOUS: M.01 M.11 M.21 P.02 P.12 P.22 M.02 M.12 M.22 P.03 P.13 P.23 M.03 M.04 M.OS M.06 M.07 M.08 M.13 M.14 M.1S M.16 M.17 M.18 M.23 M.24 M.2S M.26 M.27 M.28 P.04 P.OS P.06 P.07 P.08 P.09 P.14 P.1S P.16 P.17 P.18 P.19 P.24 P.2S P.26 P.27 P.28 P.29 M.09 M.19 M.29 P.10 P.20 M.10 M.20 P.01 P.11 P.21 CONSTRUCT: ADJ ADJHH B.AG B.AM B.FG B.IR B.NIR B.NR B.RB B.ST B.01 B.02 B.04 B.OS B.06 B.08 B.09 B.11 B.12 B.14 B.1S B.16 B.17 B.18 B.21 B.24 B.2S B.26 B.27 B.29 BAG BAM BETA BFG BNR BRB BST FRSTRY G.AG G.AM G.FG G.IR G.NIR G.NR G.RB G.ST G.01 G.02 G.04 G.OS G.06 G.08 G.09 G.11 G.12 G.14 G.1S G.16 G.17 G.18 G.21 G.24 G.2S G.26 G.27 G.29 GAG GAM GFG GNR GRB GST M.AG M.AM M.FG M.IR M.NIR M.NR M.RB M.ST MR.IR MR.ST P.AG P.AM P.FG P.IR P.NIR P.NR P.RB P.ST PCEN.01 PCEN.02 PCEN.03 PCEN.04 PCEN.05 PCEN.06 PCEN.07 PCEN.08 PCEN.09 PCEN .10 PCEN.11 PCEN .12 PCEN.13 PCEN.14 PCEN .15 PC EN .16 PCEN .17 PC EN .18 PCEN.19 PCEN.20 PCEN.21 PCEN.22 PCEN.23 PRE.ST PRE.01 PRE.02 PRE.03 PRE.04 PRE.OS PRE.06 PRE.07 PRE.08 PRE.09 PRE.10 PRE.11 PRE.12 PRE.13 PRE.14 PRE.1S PRE.16 PRE.17 PRE.18 PRE.19 PRE.20 PRE.21 PRE.22 PRE.23 PRE.24 PRE.2S PRE.26 PRE.27 PRE.28 PRE.29 S.AG S.AM S.FG S.IR S.NIR S.NR S.RB S.ST 39 Institute of Social \I and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984.Model A84.CD --) ) DEFINITION: GR.M.01 GR.M.02 GR.M.04 GR.M.OS GR.M.06 GR.M.08 GR.M.09 GR.M.11 GR.M.12 GR.M.14 GR.M.1S GR.M.16 GR.M.17 GR.M.18 GR.M.21 GR.M.24 GR.M.2S GR.M.26 GR.M.27 GR.M.29 GR.P.01 GR.P.02 GR.P.04 GR.P.OS GR.P.06 GR.P.08 GR.P.09 GR.P.ll GR.P.12 GR.P.14 GR.P.1S GR.P.16_GR.P.17 GR.P.18 GR.P.21 GR.P.24 GR.P.2S GR.P.26 GR.P.27 GR.P.29 HH.AG HH.AM HH.FG HH.IR HHCEN.ST HHCEN.01 HHCEN.02 HHCEN.03 HHCEN.04 HHCEN.OS HHCEN.06 HHCEN.07 HHCEN.08 HHCEN.09 HHCEN.10 HHCEN.11 HHCEN.12 HHCEN.13 HHCEN.14 HHCEN.1S HHCEN.16 HHCEN.17 HHCEN.18 HHCEN.19 HHCEN.20 HHCEN.21 HHCEN.22 HHCEN.23 HPRE.ST HPRE.01 HPRE.02 HPRE.03 HPRE.04 HPRE.OS HPRE.06 HPRE.07 HPRE.08 HPRE.09 HPRE.10 HPRE.11 HPRE.12 HPRE.13 HPRE.14 HPRE.15 HPRE.16 HPRE.17 HPRE.18 HPRE.19 HPRE.20 HPRE.21 HPRE.22 HPRE.23 MR.01 MR.02 MR.03 MR.04 MR.OS MR.06 MR.07 MR.08 MR.09 MR.10 MR.11 MR.12 MR.13 MR.14 MR.1S MR.16 MR.17 MR.18 MR.19 MR.20 MR.21 MR.22 MR.23 MR.24 MR.2S MR.26 MR.27 MR.28 MR.29 PL.ANCMS PL.GULF PL.INTER PL.NORTH PL.SEAST PL.SWEST S.Ol S.02_.....~---~-_._.. S.03 S.04 S.OS S.06 S.07 S.08 S.09 S.10 S.ll S.12 S.13 S.14 S.lS S.16 S.17 S.18 S.19 S.20 S.21 S.22 S.23 S.24 S.2S S.26 S.27 S.28 S.29 EXOGENOUS: BOl B02 BOS B06 BOB B09 ·jfi:r~----B-i-2---·----·BI4 B15 BIG B17 . \B18 B21 B24 B2S B26 B27 B29 EMAFISH EMAGRI EMA9 EMCN EMCNI EMGA EMGF EMMO EMM9 EMPRO EMPR01EMP9EMTOUR EMT9X EM99 G01 G02 G04 GOS G06 G08 G09 GIl G12 G14 GIS G16G17 GI8 G2IG24 G2S G26 G27 G29 HH -POP POLICY: ----~-~-~--~-----------~----------A.02__.-02--A.02-;_l-1-A ...l_h-1-1-A...1-7..O~~-_------------------------------------- 40 'J 1 ) ) -1 J I J I J ) \I I I 1 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A84.CD PARAMETER: A.01.01 A.02.01 A.02.04 A.02.06 A.02.08 A.02.09 A.02.12 A.02.14 A.02.15 A.02.17 A.02.21 A.02.24 A.02.26 A.02.29 A.04.04 A.05.05 A.05.27 A.06.06 A.08.08 A.09.09 A.09.16 A.09.25 A.09.29 A.12.l2 A.12.l5 A.14.l4 A.15.l5 A.16.l6 A.17.l7 A.18.l4 A.18.l8 A.21.2l A.24.24 A.25.25 A.26.26 A.27.27 A.29.29 B.03 B.07 B.lO B.13 B.19 B.20 B.22 B.23 B.28 B03 B07 BIO B13 B19 B20 B22 B23 B28 EA.Ol.CN EA.Ol.F~,EA.Ol.GA EA.Ol.PR EA.Ol.TR EA.02.CN EA.02.FR EA.02.G~EA.02.PR EA.02.TR EA.04.CN EA.04.FR EA.04.GA EA.04.PR;j EA.04.TR EA.05.CN EA.05.FR EA.05.GA EA.05.PR EA.05.TR'EA.06.CN EA.06.FR EA.06.GA EA.06.PR EA.06.TR EA.08.CN EA.08.FR EA.08.GA EA.08.PR EA.08.TR EA.09.CN EA.09.FR EA.09.GA EA.09.PR EA.09.TR EA.ll.CN EA.l1.FR EA.l1.GA EA.l1.PR EA.l1.TR EA.12.CN EA.12.FR EA.12.GA EA.12.PR EA.12.TR EA.14.CN EA.14.FR EA.14.GA EA.14.PR EA.14.TR EA.15.CN EA.15.FR EA.15.GA EA.15.PR EA.15.TR EA.16.CN EA.16.FR EA.16.GA EA.16.PR EA.16.TR EA.17.CN EA.17.FR EA.17.GA EA.17.PR EA.17.TR EA.18.CN EA.18.FR EA.18.GA EA.18.PR EA.18.TR EA.2l.CN EA.2l.FR EA.2l.GA EA.2l.PR EA.2l.TR EA.24.CN EA.24.FR EA.24.GA EA.24.PR EA.24.TR EA.25.CN EA.25.FR EA.25.GA EA.25.PR EA.25.TR EA.26.CN EA.26.FR EA.26.GA EA.26.PR EA.26.TR EA.27.CN EA.27.FR EA.27.GA EA.27.PR EA.27.TR EA.29.CN EA.29.FR EA.29.GA EA.29.PR EA.29.TR G.03 G.07 G.lO G.13 G.19 G.20 G.22 G.23 G.28 G03 G07 GIO G13 G19 G20 G22 G23 G28 HHSZ.Ol HHSZ.02 HHSZ.03 HHSZ.04 HHSZ.05 HHSZ.06 HHSZ.07 HHSZ.08 HHSZ .10 HHSZ.11 HHSZ .12 HHSZ .13 HHSZ.14 HHSZ.15 HHSZ.16 HHSZ.19 IM.Ol.Ol IM.02.01 IM.02.02 IM.02.04 IM.02.05 IM.02.06 IM.02.08 IM.02.12 IM.02.15 IM.02.16 IM.02.21 IM.04.04 IM.05.04 IM.05.05 IM.05.15 IM.06.06 IM.08.08 IM.09.04 IM.09.09 IM.09.24 IM.ll.04 IM.ll.ll IM.12.0l IM.12.04 IM.12.05 IM.12.06 IM.12.l2 IM.12.l6 IM.14.04 IM.14.l4 IM.15.0l IM.15.06 IM.15.l5 IM.15.l6 IM.16.l6 IM.17.0l IM.17.02 1M.17.04 IM.17.05 IM.17.06 IM.17.08 1M.17.l2 IM.17.l5 1M.17.l6 IM.17.l7 IM.17.2l IM.18.04 1M.18.l8 IM.2l.2l IM.24.04 IM.24.24 1M.25.04 1M.25.25 1M.26.04 IM.26.26 IM.27.27 IM.29.04 1M.29.29 PC.04.16 PC.04~25 PC.06.24 PC.06.25 PC.08.16 PC.lO.Ol PC .11.01 PC .16.24 PGQ.Ol PGQ .02 PGQ.03 PGQ.04 PGQ.05 PGQ.06 PGQ.07 PGQ.08 PGQ.lO PGQ.ll PGQ.12 PGQ.13 PGQ.14 PGQ.15 PGQ.16 PGQ.19 PM.Ol PM.02 PM.04 PM.05 PM.06 PM.08 PM.09 PM.ll PM.12 PM.14 PM.15 PM.16 PM.17 PM.18 PM.21 PM.24 PM.25 PM.26 PM.27 PM.29 41 2:FRSTRY ==EMMO+EMA9-EMAFISH-EMAGRI 1:BETA:=(EM99-EMA9-EMM9-EMCN-EMP9-EMT9X-EMPRO-EMGA-EMGF-EMTOUR)/EM99 EQUATIONS I i ) ,( 1\ ) I J l I I 'I .l ==B09+EMCN1*EA.09.CN+FRSTRY*EA.09.FR+EMPR01*EA.09.PR+EMTOUR* EA.09.TR ==B01+EMCN1*EA.01.CN+FRSTRY*EA.01.FR+EMPR01*EA.01.PR+EMTOUR* EA.01.TR ==B06+EMCN1*EA.06.CN+FRSTRY*EA.06.FR+EMPR01*EA.06.PR+EMTOUR* EA.06.TR ==B04+EMCN1*EA.04.CN+FRSTRY*EA.04.FR+EMPR01*EA.04.PR+EMTOUR* EA.04.TR ==B12+EMCN1*EA.12.CN+FRSTRY*EA.12.FR+EMPR01*EA.12.PR+EMTOUR* EA.12.TR ==BOS+EMCN1*EA.OS.CN+FRSTRY*EA.OS.FR+EMPR01*EA.OS.PR+EMTOUR* EA.OS.TR ==BOS+EMCN1*EA.OS.CN+FRSTRY*EA.OS.FR+EMPR01*EA.OS.PR+EMTOUR* EA.OS.TR -----_..._-_.-_.•....._-_....."-'..•_..-_.__.•..__..__._-_...~_.-"•....._- --B11+EMCN1*EA.11.CN+FRSTRY*EA.11.FR+EMPR01*EA.11.PR+EMTOUR* EA.l1.TR :.:=B02+EMCN1*EA.02.CN+FRSTRY*EA.02.FR+EMPR01*EA.02.PR+EMTOUR* EA.02.TR ==B14+EMCN1*EA.14.CN+FRSTRY*EA.14.FR+EMPR01*EA.14.PR+EMTOUR* EA.14.TR Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 19S4,Model AS4.CD 3:B.01 4:B.02~! t,. '; 5:'B.04 6:B.OS 7:B.06 S:B.OS 9:B.09 --_..._._----_..-_. 10:B.11 11:B.12 12:B.14 14:B.16 ==B16+EMCN1*EA.16.CN+FRSTRY*EA.16.FR+EMPR01*EA.16.PR+EMTOUR* EA.16.TR 15:B.17 =:::B17+EMCN1*EA.17.CN+FRSTRY*EA.17.FR+EMPROl*EA.17.PR+EMTOUR* EA~l7.TR ..·~-:h-B.-l-S-==-B-l-S+EMeNl*EA -l-S·~eN+F·RSTRY*EA.1S ·FR+E~1PR0l-*EA-;-];S.PR+EHT0UR* EA.1S.TR 16:B.1S --B1S+EMCN1*EA.1S.CN+FRSTRY*EA.1S.FR+EMPR01*EA.1S.PR+EMTOUR* EA.1S.TR 17:B.21 --B21+EMCN1*EA.21.CN+FRSTRY*EA.21.FR+EMPR01*EA.21.PR+EMTOU R* EA.21.TR lS:B.24 --B24+EMCN1*EA.24.CN+FRSTRY*EA.24.FR+EMPR01*EA.24.PR+EMTOUR* EA.24.TR 42 j J t ') Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A84.CD 19:B.25 ==B25+EMCN1*EA.25.CN+FRSTRY*EA.25.FR+EMPR01*EA.25.PR+EMTOUR* EA.25.TR 20:B.26 --B26+EMCN1*EA.26.CN+FRSTRY*EA.26.FR+EMPR01*EA.26.PR+EMTOUR* EA.26.TR 21:B.27 ==B27+EMCN1*EA.27.CN+FRSTRY*EA.27.FR+EMPR01*EA.27.PR+EMTOUR* EA.27.TR 22:B.29 ==B29+EMCN1*EA.29.CN+FRSTRY*EA.29.FR*EMPR01*EA.29.PR+EMTO UR* EA.29.TR ;1 23:G.Ol --G01+EMGA*EA.Ol.GA 24:G.02 ==G02+EMGA*EA.02.GA 25:G.04 ==G04+EMGA*EA.04.GA 26:G.05 ==G05+EMGA*EA.05.GA 27:G.06 ==G06+EMGA*EA.06.GA 28:G.08 ==G08+EMGA*EA.08.GA 29:G.09 --G09+EMGA*EA.09.GA 30:G.ll --G11+EMGA*EA.1l.GA U 31:G.12 ==G12+EMGA*EA.12.GA 32:G.14 ==G14+EMGA*EA.14.GA 33:G.15 ==G15+EMGA*EA.15.GA 34:G.16 --G16+EMGA*EA.16.GA 35:G.17 --G17+EMGA*EA.17.GA 36:G.18 --G18+EMGA*EA.18.GA 37:G.2l ==G21+EMGA*EA.21.GA 38:G.24 ==G24+EMGA*EA.24.GA 39:G.25 ==G25+EMGA*EA.25.GA 40:G.26 ==G26+EMGA*EA.26.GA 41:G.27 ==G27+EMGA*EA.27.GA 42:G.29 ==G29+EMGA*EA.29.GA 43 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A84.CD 43:M.01 =A.01.01*M.01*BETA+B.01+G.01 44:M.02 =(A.02.01*M.01+A.02.02*M.02+A.02.04*M.04+A.02.06*M.06+ A.02.08*M.08+A.02.09*M.09+A.02.11*M.11+A.02.12*M.12+A.02.14* M.14+A.02.15*M.15+A.02.17*M.17+A.02.21*M.21+A.02.24*M.24+ A.02.26*M.26+A.02.29*M.29)*BETA+B.02+G.02 45:M.03 =O. 46:M.04 =A.04.04*M.04*BETA+B.04+G.04 r. 47:M.05 =(A.05.05*M.05+A.05.27*M.27)*BETA+B.05+G.05 48:M.06 =A.06.06*M.06*BETA+B.06+G.06 49:M.07 =o. 50:M.08 =A.08.08*M.08*BETA+B.08+G.08 51:M.09 =(A.09.09*M.09+A.09.16*M.16+A.09.25*M.25+A.09.29*M.29)*BETA+ B.09+G.09 52:M.10 =O. 53:M.11 =A.l1.11*M.11*BETA+B.11+G.ll M.12::(A.12.12~M.12+A.12.15*M.15)~B.ETA:l:B.12±G.12cc 55 :.M.13 =O. 56:M.14 =A.14.14*M.14*BETA+B.14+G.14 57:M.15 =A.15.15*M.15*BETA+B.15+G.15 58:M.16 =A.16.16*M.16*BETA+B.16+G.16 60:M.18 =(A.18.14*M.14+A.18.18*M.18)*BETA+B.18+G.18 61:M.19 =O. 62:M.20 =0. 63:M.21 ==A.21.21*M.21*BETA+B .21+G .21 64:M.22 =o. 65:M.23 =O. 66:M.24 =A.24.24*M.24*BETA+B.24+G.24 44 ) I ] \ () ) j .) I I ,I l I I i I I 1 1,1 I Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A84.CD 67:M.25 =A.25.25*M.25*BETA+B.25+G.25 68:M.26 =A.26.26*M.26*BETA+B.26+G.26 69:M.27 =A.27.27*M.27*BETA+B.27+G.27 70:M.28 =O. 71:M.29 =A.29.29*M.29*BETA+B.29+G.29 -, 72:S.Ol :=M.01-B.01-G.01 'j 73:S.02 ==M.02-B.02-G.02 74:S.03 :=M.03-B.03-G.03 75 :S.04 ==M.04-B.04-G.04 76 :S.05 :=M.05-B.05-G.05 77:S.06 ==M.06-B.06-G.06 78:S.07 :=M.07-B.07-G.07 79:S.08 ==M.08-B.08-G.08 80:S.09 ==M.09-B.09-G.09 81:S.10 ==M.10-B.10-G.10 82:S.ll ==M.11-B.11-G.11 83:S.12 ==M.12-B.12-G.12 84:S.13 :=M.13-B.13-G.13 85:S.14 ==M.14-B.14-G.14 86:S.15 ==M.15-B.15-G.15 87:S.16 ==M.16-B.16-G.16 88:S.17 ==M.17-B.17-G.17 89:S.18 ==M.18-B.18-G.18 90:S.19 :=M.19-B.19-G.19 91:S.20 ==M.20-B.20-G.20 92:S.21 ==M.21-B.21-G.21 45 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP'Documentation December 1984,Model A84.CD 93:S.22 ==M.22-B.22-G.22 94:S.23 ==M.23-B.23-G.23 95:S.24 ==M.24-B.24-G.24 96:S.25 ==M.25-B.25-G.25 97:S.26 ==M.26-B.26-G.26 98:S.27 ==M.27-B.27-G.27 Ii 99:S.28 ==M.28-B.28-G.28 100:S.29 ==M.29-B.29-G.29 101:S.ST --S.01+S.02+S.03+S.04+S.05+S.06+S.07+S.08+S.09+S.10+S.11+ S.12+S.13+S.14+S.15+S.16+S.17+S.18+S.19+S.20+S.21+S.22+ S.23+S.24+S.25+S.26+S.27+S.28+S.29 102:B.ST ==B.01+B.02+B.03+B.04+B.05+B.06+B.07+B.08+B.09+B.10+B.11+ B.12+B.13+B.14+B.15+B.16+B.17+B.18+B.19+B.20+B.21+B.22+ B.23+B.24+B.25+B.26+B.27+B.28+B.29 103:G.ST ==G.01+G.02+G.03+G.04+G.05+G.06+G.07+G.08+G.09+G.10+G.11+ G.12+G.13+G.14+G.15+G.16+G.17+G.18+G.19+G.20+G.21+G.22+ G.23+G.24+G.25+G.26+G.27+G.~----~~---~~-~~~-~~--~.-'-~---~~ 104:M.ST ==M.01+M.02+M.03+M.04+M.05+M.06+M.07+M.08+M.09+M.10+M.11 + M.12+M.13+M.14+M.15+M.16+M.17+M.18+M.19+M.20+M.21+M.22+ M.23+M.24+M.25+M.26+M.27+M.28+M.29 105:B.RB ==B.02+B.09+B.12+B.17+B.21+B.24+B.26 106:G.RB ==G.02+G.09+G.12+G.17+G.21+G.24+G.26 \.j 1 l.,I l ) ) 'J ) I 1 I 108:M.RB ==M.02+M.09+M.12+M.17+M.21+M.24+M.26 109:B.NR ==B.ST-B.RB 110:G.NR ==G.ST-G.RB 111:S.NR ==S.ST~S.RB 112:M.NR ==M.ST-M.RB 113:B.AM ==B.02+B.17 114:G.AM ==G.02+G.17 46 1 I ,i JJ Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A84.CD 115:S.AM ==S.02+S.17 116:M.AM ==M.02+M.17 117:BAM ==B02+B17 118:GAM ==G02+G17 119:BST ~=B01+B02+B03+B04+B05+B06+B07+B08+B09+B10+Bl1+B12+B13+Bl4+B15 +B16+B17+B18+B19+B20+B21+B22+B23+B24+B25+B26+B27+B28+B29 120:GST __G01+G02+G03+G04+G05+G06+G07+G08+G09+GIO+G11+G12+G13+G14+G15 +G16+G17+G18+G19+G20+G21+G22+G23+G24+G25+G26+G27+G28+G29 121:BRB ==B02+B09+B12+B17+B21+B24+B26 122:BNR ==BST-BRB 123:GRB ==G02+G09+G12+G17+G21+G24+G26 124:GNR ==GST-GRB 125:G.AG ==G.AM+G.2~+G.12 1 126:B.AG ==B.AM+B.21+B.12 127:S.AG ==S.AM+S.21+S.12 128:M.AG ==M.AM+M.21+M.12 129:G.FG ==G.09+G.24 130:B.FG --B.09+B.24 131:S.FG --S.09+S.24 132:M.FG ==M.09+M.24 133:GAG ==GAM+G21+G12 134:BAG ==BAM+B21+B12 135:GFG ==G09+G24 136:BFG ==B09+B24 137:MR.Ol ==M.01*IM.01.01 138:MR.02 ==M.01*IM.02.01+M.02*IM.02.02+M.04*IM.02.04+M.05*IM.02.05+ *8*IM.02.08+M.12*IM.02.12+M.15*IM.02.15+ M.16*IM.02.16+M.21*IM.02.21 47 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984.Model A84.CD 139:MR.03 ==O. 140:MR.04 ==M.04*IM.04.04 141:MR.05 ==M.04*IM.05.04+M.05*IM.05.05+M.15*IM.05.15 142:MR.06 ==M.06*IM.06.06 143:MR.07 ==O. 144:MR.08 ==M.08*IM.08.08 145:MR.09 ==M.04*IM.09.04+M.09*IM.09.09+M.24*IM.09.24 146:MR.I0 ==O. 147:MR.ll ==M.04*IM.ll.04+M.ll*IM.ll.ll 148:MR.12 ==M.Ol*IM.12.01+M.04*IM.12.04+M.05*IM.12.05+M.06*IM.12.06+ M.12*IM.12.12+M.16*IM.12.16 149:MR.13 ==O. 150:MR.14 ==M.04*IM.14.04+M.14*IM.14.14 151:MR.15 ==M.Ol*IM.15.01+M.06*IM.15.06+M.15*IM.15.15+M.16*IM.15.16 152:MR.16 ==M.16*IM.16.16 153:MR.17 ==M.Ol*IM.17.01+M.02*IM.17.02+M.04*IM.17.04+M.05*IM.17.05+ M.06*IM.17.06+M.08*IM.17.08+M.12*IM.17.12+M.15*tM.17.15+ M.16*IM.17.16+M.17*IM.17.17+M.21*IM.17.21 154:MR.18 ==M.04*IM.18.04+M.18*IM.18.18 155:MR.19 156:MR.20 ==o. 157:MR.21 ==M.21*IM.21.21 158:MR.22 ==O. 159:MR.23 ==O. 160:MR.24 ==M.04*IM.24.04+M.24*IM.24.24 161:MR.25 ==M.04*IM.25.04+M.25*IM.25.25 162:MR.26 ==M.04*IM.26.04+M.26*IM.26.26 163:MR.27 ==M.27*IM.27.27 48 I -1 "j I -l J I -'i:ij I J I I j ~­ { i I { .'I Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A84.CD 164:MR.28 ==O. 16S:MR.29 ==M.04*IM.29.04+M.29*IM.29.29 166:MR.ST ~=MR.01+MR.02+MR.04+MR.OS+MR.06+MR.08+MR.09+MR.11+MR.12+ MR.14+MR.lS+MR.16+MR.17+MR.18+MR.21+MR. 24+MR.2S+MR.26+ MR.27+MR.29 167:PRE.01 ==PM.01*MR.01 168:PRE.02 ==PM.02*MR.02 169:PRE.03 :::=o. 170:PRE.04 ==PM.04*MR.04 171:PRE.OS ==PM.OS*MR.OS 172:PRE.06 ==PM.06*MR.06 173:PRE.07 ==O. 174:PRE.08 ==PM.08*MR.08 17S:PRE.09 ==PM.09*MR.09 176:PRE.10 ==o. 177:PRE.11 ;::=PM.11*MR.11 178:PRE.12 ==PM.12*MR.12 179:PRE.13 ==O. 180:PRE.14 ==PM.14*MR.14 181:PRE.1S ==PM.1S*MR.1S 182:PRE.16 ==PM.16*MR.16 183:PRE.17 ==PM.17*MR.17 184:PRE.18 ==PM.18*MR.18 18S:PRE.19 --O. 186:PRE.20 ---O. 187:PRE.21 ==PM.21*MR.21 188:PRE.22 ==O. 49 189:PRE.23 --O. 190:PRE.24 --PM.24*MR.24 191:PRE.25 --PM.25*MR.25 192:PRE.26 --PM.26*MR.26 193:PRE.27 ==PM.27*MR.27 194:PRE.28 ::=O. 195:PRE.29 ""=PM.29*MR.29 Institute of Social '.! and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A84.CD ',l ! I, .',\ I,I 196:PRE.ST "'=PRE.01+PRE.02+PRE.03+PRE.04+PRE~05+PRE.06+PRE.07+PRE.08+ PRE.09+PRE.10+PRE.11+PRE.12+PRE.13+PRE.14+PRE.15+PRE.1 6+ PRE.17+PRE.18+PRE.19+PRE.20+PRE. 21+PRE.22+PRE.23+PRE.24+ PRE.25+PRE.26+PRE.27+PRE.28+PRE.29 197:ADJ --POP/PRE.ST 198:P.29 --PRE.29*ADJ 199:P.28 --PRE.28*ADJ 200:P.27 --PRE.27*ADJ ~~~_.~-_....._..._~- 201:P.26 --PRE.26*ADJ 202:P.25 --PRE.25*ADJ 203:P.24 --PRE.24*ADJ 204:P.23 --PRE.23*ADJ ~--205:P;22 ==PRE~22*ADJ ,'.-.-~....•--.'.'.'----."'-~---,-- 206:P.21 --PRE.21*ADJ 207:P.20 --PRE.20*ADJ 208:P.19 --PRE.19*ADJ 209:P.18 --PRE.18*ADJ 210:P.17 --PRE.17*ADJ 211:P.16 --PRE.16*ADJ 212:P.15 --PRE.15*ADJ 213:P.14 --PRE.14*ADJ 50 ~l 1 J I 1 J 1 ,1 I i ? i ! Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation !I December 1984,Model A84.CD 214:P.13 ==PRE.13*ADJ 215:P.12 ==PRE.12*ADJ 216:P.ll ==PRE.11*ADJ 217:P.10 ==PRE.10*ADJ 218:P.09 ==PRE.09*ADJ 219:P.08 ==PRE.08*ADJ 220:P.07 ==PRE.07*ADJ 221:P.06 ==PRE.06*ADJ 222:P.05 ==PRE.05*ADJ 223:P.04 ==PRE.04*ADJ 224:P.03 =~PRE.03*ADJ 225:P.02 ==PRE.02*ADJ 226:P.01 ==PRE.01*ADJ 227:P.ST~=P.01+P.02+P.03+P.04+P.05+P.06+P.07+P.08+P.09+P.10+P.l1+ P.12+P.13+P.14+P.15+P.16+P.17+P.18+P.19+P.20+P.21+P.22+ P.23+P.24+P.25+P.26+P.27+P.28+P.29 228:P.RB ==P.02+P.09+P.12+P.17+P.21+P.24+P.26 229:P.NR ==P.ST-P.RB 230:P.AM ==P.02+P.17 231:P.AG ==P.AM+P.21+P.12 232:P.FG ==P.09+P.24 233:PCEN.01 ==P.04 234:PCEN.02 ~=P.14 235:PCEN.03 ==P.18 236:PCEN.04 ==P.29+P.16*PC.04.16+P.25*PC.04.25 237:PCEN.05 --P.09 238:PCEN.06 --P.24*PC.06.24+P.25*PC.06.25 51 239:PCEN.07 ==P.27 240:PCEN.08 ==P.05+P.16*PC.08.16 241:PCEN.09 ==P.07 242:PCEN.10 ==P.06+P.01*PC.10.01 243:PCEN.11 ==P.01*PC.11.01 244:PCEN.12 ==P.17 245:PCEN.13 ===P.02 246:PCEN.14 ==P.12+P.21 247:PCEN.15 ==P.15 248:PCEN.16 ==P.24*PC.16.24+P.08+P.26 249:PCEN.17 ==P.23+P.03 250:PCEN.18 ==P.10 251:PCEN.19 ==P.11 252:PCEN.20 ==P.22 253:PCEN.21 ==P.28 254:PCEN.22 -==P.20+P.19 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A84.CD \ I ,1 I \ 255:PCEN.23 --P.13 256:HPRE.01 --(PCEN.01-PGQ.01)/HHSZ.01 -------_.--2-5-7:-.--HF-RE.02 --_.(-F-CEN-.-02-P-GQ-.02}I-HHSZ ..-02------- 258:HPRE.03 --(PCEN.03-PGQ.03)/HHSZ.03 259:HPRE.04 --(PCEN.04-PGQ.04)/HHSZ.04 260:HPRE.05 --(PCEN.05-PGQ.05)/HHSZ.05 261:HPRE.06 --(PCEN.06-PGQ.06J/HHSZ.06 262:HPRE.07 --(PCEN.07-PGQ.07)/HHSZ.07 263:HPRE.08 --(PCEN.08-PGQ.08)/HHSZ.08 264:HPRE.09 --0 52 t ') J 265:HPRE.I0 --(PCEN.I0-PGQ.I0)/HHSZ.I0 266:HPRE.ll --(PCEN.l1-PGQ.ll)/HHSZ.ll 267:HPRE.12 --(PCEN.12-PGQ.12)/HHSZ.12 268:HPRE.13 --(PCEN.13-PGQ.13)/HHSZ.13 269:HPRE.14 --(PCEN.14-PGQ.14)/HHSZ.14 270:HPRE.15 --(PCEN.15-PGQ.15)/HHSZ.IS 271:HPRE.16 --(PCEN.16-PGQ.16)/HHSZ.16 272:HPRE.17 ""=0 273:HPRE.18 ._-0 274:HPRE.19 --(PCEN.19-PGQ.19)/HHSZ.19 275:HPRE.20 --0 276:HPRE.21 -:=0 277:HPRE.22 ==0 278:HPRE.23 -:=0 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A84.CD 279:HPRE.ST ==HPRE.Ol+HPRE.02+HPRE.03+HPRE.04+HPRE.05+HPRE.06+HPRE.07 +HPRE.08+HPRE.09+HPRE.10+HPRE.II+HPRE.12+HPRE.13+HPRE.1 4+ HPRE.15+HPRE.16+HPRE.17+HPRE.18+HPRE.19+HPRE.20+HPRE.2 1+ HPRE.22+HPRE.23 280:ADJHH ==HH/HPRE.ST / 281:HHCEN.Ol ==HPRE.Ol*ADJHH 282:HHCEN.02 ==HPRE.02*ADJHH 283:HHCEN.03 ==HPRE.03*ADJHH 284:HHCEN.04 ==HPRE.04*ADJHH 285:HHCEN.05 ==HPRE.05*ADJHH 286:HHCEN.06 ==HPRE.06*ADJHH \ f 287:HHCEN.07 ==HPRE.07*ADJHH 288'HHCEN.08 HERE 08*AD.IHH 289:HHCEN.09 ==HPRE.09*ADJHH 53 Institute of Social j and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A84.CD .\ ',I 290:HHCEN.10 ~=HPRE.10*ADJHH 291:HHCEN.ll ==HPRE.11*ADJHH 292:HHCEN.12 ==HPRE.12*ADJHH 293:HHCEN.13 ==HPRE.13*ADJHH 294:HHCEN.14 ==HPRE.14*ADJHH 295:HHCEN.15 ==HPRE.15*ADJHH 296:HHCEN.16 ==HPRE.16*ADJHH 297:HHCEN.17 ==HPRE.17*ADJHH 298:HHCEN.18 ::=HPRE.18*ADJHH 299:HHCEN.19 ==HPRE.19*ADJHH 300:HHCEN.20 ==HPRE.20*ADJHH 301:HHCEN.21 ==HPRE.21*ADJHH 302:HHCEN.22 ==HPRE.22*ADJHH 3Q~:Flli~~W ..~:3 ==HPRE.23*ADJHH 304:HHCEN.ST ''':=HHCEN.01+HHCEN.02+HHCEN. 03+HHCEN.04+HHCEN.05+HHCEN.06+ HHCEN.07+HHCEN~08+HHCEN.09+HHCEN.10+HHCEN.11+HHCEN.12+ HHCEN.13+HHCEN.14+HHCEN.15+HHCEN. 16+HHCEN.17+HHCEN.18+ HHCEN.19+HHCEN.20+HHCEN.21+HHCEN.22+HHCEN.23 305:B.IR ==B.RB-B.26 307:S.IR ==S.RB-S.26 308:M.IR ==M.RB-M.26 309:MR.IR ==MR.02+MR.09+MR.12+MR.17+MR.21+MR.24 310:P.IR ==P.RB-P.26 311:B.NIR ==B.ST-B.IR 312:G.NIR ==G.ST-G.IR 313:S.NIR ==S.ST-S.IR 314:M.NIR ==M.ST-M.IR 54 "I \ I J I ,( ·T 315:P.NIR ===P.ST-P.IR 316:HH.AM ===HHCEN.12+HHCEN.13 317:HH.AG ==HH.AM+HHCEN.14 318:HH.FG ===HHCEN.05+HHCEN.06*(P.24/PCEN.06) 319:HH.IR ==HH.AG+HH.FG 320:PL.ANCMS ==PCEN.12+PCEN.13 321:PL.SEAST ==PCEN.19 322:PL.INTER ==PCEN.05+PCEN.06+0.75*PCEN.04 323:PL.NORTH ==PCEN.Ol+PCEN.02+PCEN.03 324:PL.GULF ==PCEN.14+PCEN.15+PCEN.16 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A84.CD 325:PL.SWEST ==PCEN.07+PCEN.OS+PCEN.10+PCEN.ll+0.25*PCEN.04 326:GR.M.Ol --(M.Ol/M.01(-1)-1)*100 327:GR.M.02 --(M.02/M.02(-1)-1)*100 328:GR.M.04 --(M.04/M.04(-I)-1)*100 329:GR.M.05 --(M.05/M.05(-1)-1)*100 330:GR.M.06 --(M.06/M.06(-1)-1)*100 331:GR.M.OS --(M.08/M.08(-1)-I)*100 332:GR.M.09 --(M.09/M.09(-1)-1)*100 333:GR.M.11 --(M.11/M.11(-I)-1)*100 334:GR.M.12 --(M.12/M.12(-I)-1)*100 335:GR.M.14 --(M.14/M.14(-1)-1)*100 336:GR.M.15 --(M.15/M.15(-1)~I)*100 337:GR.M.16 --(M.16/M.16(-I)-1)*100 338:GR.M.17 --(M.17/M.17(-1)-1)*100 339:GR.M.18 --(M.18/M.18(-1)-1)*100 340:GR.M.21 --(M.21/M.21(-1)-1)*100 55 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A84.CD 341:GR.M.24 --(M.24/M.24(-1)-1)*100 342:GR.M.25 --(M.25/M.25(-1)-1)*100 343:GR.M.26 --(M.26/M.26(-1)-1)*100 344:GR.M.27 --(M.27/M.27(-1)-1)*10q 345:GR.M.29 --(M.29/M.29(-1)-1)*100 346:GR.P.01 --(P.01/P.01(-1)-1)*100 347:GR.P.02 --(P.02/P.02(-1)-1)*100 348:GR.P.04 --(P.04/P.04(-1)-1)*100 349:GR.P.05 --(P.05/P.05(-1)~1)*100 350:GR.P.06 --(P.06/P.06(-1)-1)*100 351:GR.P.08 --(P.08/P.08(-1)-1)*100 352:GR.P.09 --(P.09/P.09(-1)-1)*100 353:GR.P.11 --(P.11/P.11(-1)-1)*100 J~~4;g-R~J;'!-12 ~-~(J;'.12lJ;'.12 (-ll:-=ll*~lQQ~-._-_.._...~-_...__.~..__.._,_.._...•_..._..._~.--_.__._-_.._-~ 355:GR.P.14 --(P.14/P.14(-1)-1)*100 356:GR.P.15 --(P.15/P.15(-1)-1)*100 357:GR.P.16 --(P.16/P.16(-1)-1)*100 358:GR.P.17 --(P.17/P.17(-1)-1)*100 l 1 1 ~~J J "I \ I 360:GR.P.21 --(P~21/P.21(-1)-1)*100 361:GR.P.24 --(P.24/P.24(-1)-1)*100 362:GR.P.25 --(P.25/P.25(-1}-1}*10O~ 363:GR.P.26 .--(P.26/P;26(~1);;;;1)*100 364:GR.P.27 --(P.27/P.27(-1)-1)*100 365:GR.P.29 --(P.29/P.29(-1)-1)*100 56 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A84.CD 9.Model Parameters MODEL:A84.CD COMMENT:THIS FILE CONTAINS THE PARAMETERS FOR VERSION A84.CD OF THE MAP REGIONALIZATION MODEL.VERSION A84 .CD WAS t CLEANED t OF UNNECESSARY ZERO-VALUED PARAMETERS AND THE CLEANED VERSION COMPLETED ON OCTOBER 21 1984.THE DELETIONS WERE ALL FROM THE A.NN.XX AND IM.NN.XX PARAMETER MATRICES. A.01.01 A.02.04 A.02.09 A.02.14 A.02.21 A.02.29 A.05.27 A.09.09 A.09.29 A.12.15 A.16.16 A.18.14 A.24.24 A.27.27 B.07 B.19 B.23 B03 B13 B22 EA.01.CN EA.01.PR EA.02.FR EA.02.TR EA.04.GA EA.05.CN EA.05.PR EA.06.FR EA.06.TR EA.08.GA EA.09.CN EA.09.PR EA.11.FR EA.11.TR EA.12.GA EA.14.CN EA.14.PR EA.15.FR 0.25 0.6 0.05 O. 0.28 0.15 0.49 0.95 0.15 0.1 0.8 0.2 0.3 0.51 O. O. O. O. O. O. 0.0098 0.0212 0.4547 0.3336 0.0341 0.0104 0.0053 O. O. 0.0069 0.1631 0.1058 0.04 0.303 0.0361 0.0042 0.0032 0.0162 A.02.01 A.02.06 A.02.11 A.02.15 A.02.24 A.04.04 A.06.06 A.09.16 A.11.11 A.14.14 A.17.02 A.18.18 A.25.25 A.29.29 B.10 B.20 B.28 B07 B19 B23 EA.Ol.FR EA.01.TR EA.02.GA EA.04.CN EA.04.PR EA.05.FR EA.05.TR EA.06.GA EA.08.CN EA.08.PR EA.09.FR EA.09.TR EA.l1.GA EA.12.CN EA.12.PR EA.14 FR EA.14.TR EA.15 .GA 57 0.75 0.44 0.33 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.56 0.2 0.67 0.8 0.035 1. 0.2 0.7 O. O. O. O. O. O. O. O. 0.3386 0.0325 0.0011 O. O. 0.0174 0.0012 0.0096 0.2745 0.1282 0.2184 0.0418 0.049 o. O. 0.0239 A.02.02 A.02.08 A.02.12 A.02.17 A.02.26 A.05.05 A.08.08 A.09.25 A.12.12 A.15.15 A.17.17 A.21.21 A.26.26 B.03 B.13 B.22 B10 B20 B28 EA.01.GA EA.02.CN EA.02.PR EA.04.FR EA.04.TR EA.05.GA EA.06.CN EA.06.PR EA.08.FR EA.08.TR EA.09.GA EA.l1.CN EA.11.PR EA.12.FR EA.12.TR EA.14.GA EA.15.CN EA.15.PR 0.965 0.2 0.05 0.2 0.6 1. 0.8 0.8 0.95 0.5 0.8 0.72 0.4 O. O. O. O. O. O. 0.0106 0.5733 0.4646 O. O. 0.0255 0.0053 0.0114 O. 0.005 0.134 0.0955 0.2324 0.1677 0.066 0.0183 0.0149 0.0353 EA.1S.TR 0.039 EA.16.CN O. EA.·16.GA 0.0083 EA.16.PR 0.0008 EA.17.CN 0.0184 EA.17.FR 0.0162 EA.17.PR 0.0221 EA.17.TR 0.014S EA.18.FR 0.0174 EA.18.GA 0.0208 EA.18.TR 0.0013 EA.21.CN 0.0047 EA.21.GA 0.0084 EA.21.PR 0.0118 EA.24.CN 0.0024 EA.24.FR o. EA.24.PR O.OOSS EA.24~TR o. EA.2S.FR o.EA.2S.GA 0.006S EA.2S.TR o.EA.26.CN 0.0086 EA.26.GA 0.0229 EA.26.PR 0.0077 EA.27.CN 0.0008 EA.27.FR O. EA.27.PR 0.0009 EA.27.TR O. EA.29.FR 0.0133 EA.29.GA 0.0147 EA.29.TR O.G.03 O. G.IO O.G.13 O. G.20 O.G.22 O. G.28 O.G03 O. G10 O.G13 O. G20 O.G22 O. G28 O.HHSZ.Ol 3.91 HHSZ.03 3.7 HHSZ.04 3.18 HHSZ.06 3.16 HHSZ.07 4.87 HHSZ.09 O.HHSZ.10 3.68 HHSZ.12 3.06 .HHSZ .13 2.8 . HHSZ.1S 3.06 HHSZ.16 2.84 HHSZ.18 O.HHSZ.19 2.89 HHSZ.21 O.HHSZ.22 O. IM.01.01 0.412 IM.02.01 0.09 IM.02.04 0.376 IM.02.0S 0~69 IM.02.08 0.02 IM.02.12 0.02 IM.02.16 0.09 IM.02.21 0.02 IM.OS.04 Oi002 IM.OS.OS 0.861 IM.-06 .06----·-(L5 1M.08 .08 0.S4S --.---.----.--·--IM-:-09~09-~-0-:-863---IM-=-O-9.2l~-----O.OS-. IM.11.11 0.84 IM.12.01 0.02 IM.12.0S 0.02 IM.12.06 0.02 IM.12.16 0.02 IM.14.04 O.OOS IM.1S.01 0.02 IM.1S.06 0.02 IM.1S.16 0.02 IM.16.16 0.778 IMi17.02 Oi02-IM;17 .040;06 IM.17.060~02 1M.l7 .08 o.<n -IM;17.1S ·-0-~01 IM~17 .16--0-~02 IM.17.21 0.01 IM.18.04 0.001 IM.21.21 0.8 IMi24.04 0.006 IM.2S.04 O.OOS IM.2S.2S 1. IM.26.26 1.IM.27.27 1. IM.29.29 0.611 PC.04.16 O.Sl PC.06.24 0.99 PC.06.2S 0.13 PC.10.01 0.06 PC.11.01 0.94 S8 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A84.CD EA.16.FR o. EA.16.TR o. EA.17.GA 0.0301 EA.18.CN 0.0041 EA.18.PR 0.007 EA.21.FR O. EA.21.TR 0.0044 EA.24.GA 0.0123 EA.2S.CN 0.0003 EA.2S.PR 0.0014 EA.26.FR O. EA.26.TR 0.10S EA.27.GA 0.0122 EA.29.CN 0.0087 EA.29.PR 0.0039 G.07 O. G.19 O. G.23 O. G07 O. G19 O. G23 O. HHSZ.02 4.2 HHSZ.OS 2.78 HHSZ.08 4.0S HHSZ.11 3.27 HHSZ.14 -2~.~92 HHSZ.17 o. HHSZ.20 o. HHSZ.23 o. IM.02.02 0.861 IM.02.06 0.09 IM.02.1S 0.02 IM.04.04 0.078 IM.OS.1S 0.02 IM.09.04 0.163 --1M.iI.~---o~-oif---- IM.12.040.064 IM.12.12 0.986 IM.14.14 1. IM.1S.1S 0.69 IM.17.01 0.02 IM.17 .OS-O~02 IM.17.12 0.01 IM.17.17 i. IM.18.18 0.788 IM.24.24 0.692 IM.26.04 O.OOS IM.29.04 O.OOS PC.04.2S 0.87 PC.08.16 0.49 PC.16.24 0.01 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A84.CD PGQ.01 0.365 PGQ.02 0.048 PGQ.03 0.088 PGQ.04 0.614 PGQ.05 3.339 PGQ.06 0.399 PGQ.07 0.055 PGQ.08 0.118 PGQ.09 O. PGQ.I0 0.339 PGQ.11 2.548 PGQ.12 0.324 PGQ.13 4.848 PGQ.14 0.32 PGQ.15 0.681 PGQ.16 0.702 PGQ.17 O.PGQ.18 O. PGQ.19 1.418 PGQ.20 O.PGQ.21 O. PGQ.22 O.PGQ.23 O.PM.Ol 3.167 PM.02 2.099 PM.03 O.PM.04 6.326 PM.05 2.948 PM.06 3.026 PM.07 O. PM.08 3.055 PM.09 2.152 PM.I0 O. PM.11 2.236 PM.12 2.66 PM.13 O. PM.14 2.999 PM.15 2.334 PM.16 4.976 PM.17 3.168 PM.18 3.568 PM.19 O. PM.20 O.PM.21 3.041 PM.22 O. PM.23 O.PM.24 3.974 PM.25 3.558 PM.26 2.414 PM.27 4.269 PM.28 O. PM.29 3.331 59 1 I -/ I I I I J "'J 1 ] 1 1 \ I .{ ( 'I ( ( .J Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984,Model A84.CD 10.Exogenous and Startup Values a.Exogenous Variables (All exogenous variables come from the scenario generator [Baa and Gaa],or a state model simulation) b.Policy Variables A.02.11 A.02.02 A.1l.11 A.17.02 1983 0.33 0.965 0.67 0.035 1984 0.331 0.964 0.669 0.036 .1985 0.332 0.963 0.668 0.037 1986 0.333 0.962 0.667 0.038 1987 0.334 0.961 0.666 0.039 1988 0.335 0.96 0.665 0.04 1989 0.336 0.959 0.664 0.041 1990 0.337 0.958 0.663 0.042 1991 0.338 0.957 0.662 0.043 1992 0.339 0.956 0.661 0.044 1993 0.34 0.955 0.66 0.045 1994 0.341 0.954 0.659 0.046 1995 0.342 0.953 0.658 0.047 1996 0.343 0.953 0.657 0.047 1997 0.344 0.952 0.656 0.048 1998 0.345 0.951 0.655 0.049 1999 0.346 0.95 0.654 0.05 2000 0.347 0.949 0.653 0.051 2001 0.348 0.948 0.652 0.052 2002 0.349 0.947 0.651 0.053 2003 0.35 0.946 0.65 0.054 2004 0.351 0.945 0.649 0.055 2005 0.352 0.944 0.648 0.056 2006 0.353 0.943 0.647 0.057 2007 0.354 0.942 0.646 0.058 2008 0.355 0.941 0.645 0.059 2009 0.356 0.94 0.644 0.06 2010 0.357 0.939 0.643 0.061 L1 c.Startup Variables (Startup values for endogenous variables do not affect simulation results) 61 I l I i J ( I 1 I :~ I 1 ( f { ( J \ j ! L I SCENARIO GENERATOR I J .j { 1 \ .! I' Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984 ISER MAP ALASKA ECONOMIC MODEL: SCENARIO GENERATOR MODEL DOCUMENTATION O.Introduction.. . . . . . . • . . • • . .... . • . . ...1 1.Organization of the Library Archives . . . 1 a. b. Input File Archives--The Case Library (SCEN_) and Case Creation . . . . • . Output File Archives--The Scenario Library (SCENARIO_).•.... 4 8 2.Using the Scenario Generator ...8 a. b. c. Capabilities and Organization . Instructions for Using &SCENGEN . An Example . . • . • • • . . • . • 8 9 11 3.Creating,Manipulating,Examining,and Printing Library Files a.&SETUP b.&MUNICASE c.&DELCASE d.&DELSCN ..... e.&LKCASE and &OLKCASE f.&LKSCN and &OLKSCN g.&ADCASE . h.&SUBCASE i.&LISTLIB . . .. j.&DESCLIB k.&DESCASE l.&COPYCASE .... m.&CASECHEK n.&SCENCHEK 14 15 16 17 17 17 18 18 19 19 19 20 20 20 21 4.Model Output . . . . . . . . . . . . . . • . . . . . ...22 I I j 1 I l .1 l ( l -j \ \ ! .I ( I ,j I ) Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984 O.Introduction The scenario generator model consists of a set of data files, macros,and programs designed to create and manipulate a library of some of the exogenous variables required for a run of each of the three maj or ISER models--the MAP statewide model,the regionaliza- tion model,and the Anchorage Municipality model--BIGMOD. Part 1 documents the organization of data files in the archives related to the scenario generation tasks.Part 2 describes the use of the scenario generation macro in constructing a scenario.Part 3 then describes a set of macros which have been developed for conveniently manipulating,editing,and examining the files contained in the library archives.Part 4 displays a sample of the output of the model. 1.Organization of the Library Archives Each of the three ISER economic models requires a set of data series corresponding to each of the variables treated as exogenous by that model.The scenario generator model provides the most important of those variables to each model. Specifically,for use in a run of the MAP statewide model,the scenario generator provides a data series for each of the 16 exogenous·variables listed in Table 1.The scenario generator provides for use in a run of the regionalization model a set of data series for each of the 40 exogenous variables shown in Table 2. Finally,the scenario generator provides for use in a run of the Anchorage Municipality model BIGMOD a set of data series for the 24 exogenous variables shown in Table 3. Each model requires additional exogenous and policy variables to run.The scenario generator provides for each model only the subset of all exogenous variables equivalent to Table 1 for the state model.Consult individual model documentation for further details. Because not all exogenous and policy variables are set by the scenario generator,it is necessary to check that the assumptions implicit in the variables from the scenario generator are consistent with those variables input into the models not from the scenario generator.This is particularly true for the Anchorage Municipality model. Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984 TABLE 1.EXOGENOUS VARIABLES PROVIDED FOR MAP STATEWIDE MODEL RUN Variable Name Description EMAGRI EMCNXI EMCNX2 EMFISH EMGC EMGM EMMXl EMMX2 EMP9 EMT9X RPBS RPPS RERY~_ RPTS RTCSPX TOURIST Agriculture Employment High Wage Exogenous Construction Employment Low Wage Exogenous Construction Employment Fish Harvesting Employment Civilian Federal Employment Active Duty Military Employment High Wage Exogenous Manufacturing Employment Low Wage Exogenous Manufacturing Employment Mining Employment Exogenous Transportation Employment state Bonus Payment Revenue State Property Tax Revenue .S~tate Royalty_Income .. State Production Tax Revenue State Corporate Petroleum Tax Revenue Tourists EnteringAla~ka 2 1 ! Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984 TABLE 2.EXOGENOUS VARIABLES PROVIDED FOR REGIONALIZATION MODEL RUN Variable Description Bii Gii Where ii: Basic Sector Employment,Region ii Government Sector Employment,Region ii 01 for Aleutian Islands CD 02 for Anchorage CD 04 for Barrow/N.Slope CD 05 for Bethel CD 06 for Bristol Bay* 08 for Cordova/McCarthy CD 09 for Fairbanks CD 11 for Southeast** 12 for Kenai/Cook Inlet CD 14 for Kobuk CD 15 for Kodiak CD 16 for Kuskokwim CD 17 for Matanuska/Susitna CD 18 for Nome CD IJ 21 for Seward CD 24 for S.E.Fairbanks CDi_J 25 for Upper Yukon CD 26 for Valdez/Chitina/Whittier CD 27 for Wade Hampton CD 29 for Yukon Koyukuk l j II() *Includes Bristol Bay CD and Bristol Bay Borough CD. **Includes:Angoon CD Haines CD Juneau CD Ketchikan CD Outer Ketchikan CD Prince of Wales CD sitka CD Skagway Yakatat CD Wrangell-Petersburg CD 3 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984 Variable rMP.ss* TABLE 3.EXOGENOUS VARIABLES PROVIDED FOR ANCHORAGE MUNICIPALITY MODEL RUN Description Employment by Place of Work,Region r,Sector ss J ! ! I ss =Bl High Wage Basic Sector B2 Low Wage Basic Sector G9 Government Sector PR Proprietor Sector *Where r =B C D E F G Matanuska/Susitna Region (Matanuska/SusitnaCD) Southcentral Region (Kenai-Cook Inlet,Kodiak,Valdez/ Chitina/Whittier,Cordova/McCarthy,and Seward CDs) Interior Region (Fairbanks,Yukon/Koyukuk,and Upper Yukon CDs) Southeast Region (Juneau,Ketchikan,Prince of Wales, Sitka,Wrangell,Petersburg,and Lynn Canal CDs) Northern Region (Barrow/North Slope,Kobuk,and Nome CDs) Southwest Region (Aleutian Islands,Bethel,Bristol Bay, Wade Hampton,and Kuskokwim CDs)j J ( A scenario is defined as a set of values for each of these variables,and it is composed of sets of individual assumptions,or cases,each of which is itself an archive of individual component assumptions about an industry or activity.These individual components are filed in an archive called SCEN__,which can be .considered to be .the .libraryfromwhich .scenarios maybe constructed ..·us·i-ngthescenariogener.ato r....Thescenario.generatol.".....comblnesthes.e cases according to user-specified instructions into scenarios,which are then filed in an archive called SCENARIO__The scenarios archived in SCENARIO_may be used directly as input into running the various ISER economic models. a.Input File Archives-....The Case Library (SCEN-)and Case Creation The SCEN_archives contain sets of data files which will be termed "cases."A "case"may be a particular exogenous development project,such as the gas pipeline or the Alpetco refinery,or a 4 I ,I J 'j Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984 particular set of revenue estimates,such as those published by the Alaska Department of Revenue,or an assumption concerning the development of a component of an exogenous industry,such as commercial fishing or agriculture.Each "case"has implications for some subset of the exogenous variables in the ISER economic models. A "case"consists of a set of data files,consisting of the effects of that case on the exogenous variables in one or more of the ISER economic models.In addition,each case contains an additional data file called COMMENT,containing no data but rather a comment which provides a short description and documentation of the case. Each case is given a user-specified name which becomes the name of a sub-archive wi thin the SCEN_archive.The convention to be used in giving such names is as follows:the name will take the form ccc.nnn,where ccc is a three-digit code identifying the particular case,such as an OCS sale,which would be called OCS.nnn,or Prudhoe Bay field employment,which would be called PRS.nnn.The final three digits (nnn)are an identifier of the particular set of assumptions employed to describe this case.For example,there may be a series of PRS.nnn cases,each corresponding to a different set of assumptions regarding the future development of Prudhoe Bay. It should be noted that not all cases will be usable wi th all models.For example,certain cases such as revenue assumptions may affect only variables in the MAP statewide model.On the other hand,any cases which involve exogenous employment will typically affect the exogenous variables in all three models,but information may be inadequate to provide sufficient regional disaggregation to use either the regionalization model or the municipality model. Alternati vely,the user may have sufficient information to regionally disaggregate the statewide data to the level required by SIGMOD,but not to the level required by the regionalization model. In order to deal with such possibilities without having to set up three special model-specific libraries in which there would be a great deal of duplication,the comment file in each case should include a list of the models with which the case may be appropriately utilized.Many cases initially entered into the library as "state"cases,usable only with the statewide model,may be gradually upgraded as more information and/or more effort is put into disaggregating the data to a regional level appropriate for use in one or both of the regional models. A complete "case"includes both the on-line data files and a physical documentation file.While there is no single best approach in developing a "case,"there are five basic steps required to complete a comprehensive "case"file:development of input numbers, data entry,data verification,written descriptions,and pr~~t~i~o~n~-----------­ of documentation file. 5 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984 The input numbers required for a given "case"depend on the details of the specific project,industry,or revenue projections. The sources of data for these numbers are numerous and include historical data and feasiblity studies of proposed projects as well as "what if"assumptions regarding future levels of activity.For the regional and Anchorage models,regional breakdowns of the employment assumptions are required.Individual model documentations must be consulted to determine what model variables are affected by a particular project or "case." In the data entry step,only that subset of the list of variables in Tables 1-3 which have nonzero values require entry.In the development of a new case archive,the macro &SETUP simplifies the data entry process.The data entry step includes the data files and a comment file.The comment should include the case's full name,a brief description,identity of the author of the case file and designation of the models for which data has been entered (statewide [S],Regional [C],Anchorage [A]). Once the data entry is complete,the data should be·verified for accuracy and compatibility among models.The macro &LKCASE produces a printout of all files created in an archive at the terminal.Data should be created for the Anchorage Municipality model using the macro &MUNICASE;and the macro &CASECHEK should be run to compare input values for the statewide,regional,and Anchorage models to make sure they are consistent. The written descriptions of the·case are important for documenting the on-line case file.The written descriptions include a short description and a medium description.The short description is usually two-to-three sentences long and provides an extended project title and information on the level of activity.These short descriptions are used in tables which summarize scenarios.The medium description is usually two-to-five paragraphs long and includes historical background,source of proposal,regional and/or···Tnduslry breakdowns ,and ·tIming--or activity...........---.----- The final step in preparing a "case"is to prepare the documentation.The documentation file should contain: (1)a completed Case File Documentation Status checklist (see Table 4) (2)written description(s)of the case (3)printout of the input numbers (4)copies of background information,tables,or cover page of documents used to develop the numbers in case (5)worksheets,if any,used to develop numbers. The physical files are centrally filed at ISER. 6 I i ! I Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984 TABLE 4.EXAMPLE OF A SCEN_CASE DESCRIPTION Case: Title: AGR.PJD Declining Agriculture Case Comments Ii IIt... Date Developed:.,June 1982 Developed.By:P~J.Hill Models:MAP statewide Model MAP Regional Model Short Description:Agricultural employment falls to zero by the year 1992 due to declining state support, poor yields,and unfavor- able market conditions. Medium Description:In all regions, agricultural employment is assumed to decline steadily due to poor yields,unfavor- able market conditions, declining state support and lower transportation costs for food imports.State sub- sidies of agricultural proj- ects such as the Delta Barley project are eliminated.Agri- cultural employment falls to zero by 1992. 7 Shows for which models case is complete Description to be stored in computer along with title, date,and author.Also for use in tables of assumptions. De~cription suitable for .in- clusion in Appendixes describ- ing model assumptions used. Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984 b.output File Archives--The Scenario Library (SCENARIO-) output of the scenario generation macro is filed in the SCENARIO_t.ddddd archive,where t is a one-digit code indicating the model to which the scenario is appropriate (S =statewide, C =regionalization,A =municipality--BIGMOD).A type S scenario archive contains the 16 data files listed in Table 1;a type C scenario archive contains the 40 data files listed in Table 2;a type A scenario archive contains the 24 data files listed in Table 3;and each contains an additional COMMENT file which documents the scenario. 'i 2.Using the Scenario Generator a.Capabilities and Organization The scenario generator is simply an elaborate macro for combining the various cases contained in the SCEN_library archives -ac"cord1ng to a variety of user-specified"instructiohSartdfiling the resulting scenario in the SCENARIO_library archives. It expects input files in the format decribed above for the SCEN_library and produces output in the form of data files in the format described above for the SCENARIO_library. I j I j j j -J J 1 -----It permits~tne--user--·Eoalter"t1ieYiming-or-everle-sc-cdesc~ribed--in--.- the individual case archives by moving the entire set of data series forward or backward in time. 8 GENERATING SCENARIO t.dddd CONSISTS OFrt CASES,as follows: and presents the total of the number of cases it is about to process: j l I j j J j ! the SCENARIO_data files output which are on disk following a run of the scenario online outputs are produced during and a run. In addition to automatically stored generator,several immediately following After which it presents a description of each case as it is processed,consisting of the contents of the comment filed in the COMMENT file for that case and an acknowledgment of any moves in the -----~------"-"---"Af_ter~t'ece"i_v-ing-"··--a-l-l~-instroct-ions~f.r.orn-the~user_,_the~s_c_enat".i.o__ generator prints an acknowledgment that processing is beginning,of the form: I II •I I I....J IIl.... Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984 timing of the case that have been made from that found in the SCEN_ library archives. Upon completion of processing,it prints the message SCENARIO t.dddd FILED IN SCENARIO ARCHIVE Finally,following this message,it will request that the user provide a written description of the scenario,which will be filed as a comment in the COMMENT file corresponding to the newly generated scenario.This request will ~~indicated by the prompt: NEW COMMENT: at which point the user should type in a short description of the scenario.This description may be more than one line,but the prompt "NEW COMMENT:It will precede each line.Following completion of the description,the user should type a semicolon ";"followed by the command "FILE;". b.Instructions for Using &SCENGEN The command &SCENGEN will activate the scenario generator,which will proceed to ask the user a series of questions.First,the user will be asked to provide the type and name for the scenario,with the'prompts: SCENARIO TYPE (S,C,or A) SCENARIO NAME: Once this has been provided,the scenario generator will begin to ask questions about each of the cases to be included in the scenario.The first question, CASE NAME: it expects to be answered with one of the ccc.nnn names found in the SCEN_library.It then prompts: START: and expects the user to provide an integer representing the number of years forward or backward in time that the case should be moved. For example,if the user wishes to leave the timing of the case as it is recorded in the library,he should respond with 0;if he wishes to delay the case by two years,-2;or move it forward five years,S;and so on. 9 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984 After providing this information for the first case,the computer will again give the prompt: CASE NAME: which it expects to be answered with the name of the second case, followed by prompts for the start and type of the second case,and so on.Currently,the user may specify as many as 97 cases to be included in a scenario.Once all of the case information has been entered,respond to.the CASE NAME:prompt with a.semicolon to indicate the end of'the input list.No further information is required from ..the u~er until processing is completed,after which the user will ~eceive:the prompt: NEW COMMENT: and should type in a short description of the scenario contents, followed by a semicolon and the word "file",followed by a second semicolon. All of these commands can be included in a.user-written macro with the same name as the scenario being created.This macro then provides a permanent record of the case files composing the scenario. 10 ] 1 ] I J II II u Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984 c.An Example Before beginning to generate a scenario,the user may want to scan the cases in the SCEN_library available for use in the scenario.This can be done using the &LISTLIB command,which provides a complete listing of currently available cases,as follows: &LISTLIB AGR.SCM BCF.003 BCL.04T DOR.381 FLP.SCM GFC.EPM GFM.EPM NPR.MOD NWG.MGl OCS.BFM OCS.55X OCS.57X OCS.60X OCS.70L OCS.71M OCS.75H OCS.75L OCS.75M OCS.751 OCS.754 OCS.755 OMN.EPH PRB.08l TAP.XXX TCF.OOI TRS.MOD UPC.Oll If the user is unfamiliar with one or more of these cases,he may use the &DESCASE or &DESCLIB commands explained in the following section. After deciding on the cases he wishes to include in the scenario,the user proceeds to invoke the scenario generator with the &SCENGEN command. In this example,we generate a scenario for use with the statewide model called S.TESTl,consisting of 14 cases selected from the 27 available cases in the SCEN_library.Note that we have changed the timing of two of those cases:OCS.60X has been moved fortt.'ard 4 years,and NWG MGl has been moved back 1 year.After completing the questions for the desired cases,the user responds with a semicolon. 11 TROLL COMMAND:.&SCENGEN TYPE OF SCENARIO (S,C,or A):~ NAME OF SCENARIO: PROJECT CODE:.AGR.SCM START:.Q CASE NAME:.BCF.003 START:.Q CASE NAME:.DOR.381 START:.Q CASE NAME:.FLP.SCM START:.Q CASE NAME:.GFC.EPM START:.Q CASE NAME:.GFM.EPM START:.Q CASE NAME:.OCS.55X START:.Q CAS_ENAltJi::.OCS .BFM START:.Q CASE NAME:.OCS.60X START:..1. CASE NAME:.OMN.EPH START:.Q .CASE NAME:.TCF.001 START:.Q . CASE NAME:.NWG.MG1 START:.-1 CASE NAME:..i. 12 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984 j .j I ] 1 ] j I -j .] l I ] I J -I 1 ] ] I) i 1 11I I u u u Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984 The computer will now begin processing the required cases.As it completes each case,it provides a description of the case,as follows: GENERATING SCENARIO TEST1 ... CONSISTS OF 14 CASES AS FOLLOWS: CASE AGR.SCM MOVED 0 YEARS MODERATE CASE AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT FROM : GOLDSMITH AND PORTER,ALASKA ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE RAILBELT,ISER,10/81,P.A-75 CASE BCF.003 MOVED 0 YEARS BOTTOMFISHING EMPLOYMENT ESTIMATES PREPARED BY GUNNAR KNAPP FOR OCS SALE 75 STUDY,FEB 1982 • • o 13 14 3.Creating,Manipulating,Examining,and Printing Library Files The macros currently available are: ...~."."..----.-...."...._.,,".''''''_...,,_._..""..._.....-..'.'.'.'.'''''''",,-....-".'..'.-"... The user types in a description,followed by a semicolon and a f He command. I ] J J .1 J 1 1 '1 J J I .J J .J J J j I '; GENERATOR computer scenario SCENARIO S.TEST1 FILED IN SCENARIO ARCHIVE NEW COMMENT:.THIS IS A TEST CASE TO TRY OUT THE NEW SCENARIO NEW COMMENT:.iFILEi TROLL COMMAND:. After processing all of the requested cases,the indicates that processing has terminated and requests a description from the user. Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984 To generate scenarios for use with the regionalization model or the municipality model--BIGMOD,the user would follow the same procedure,except that the response to the prompt "TYPE OF SCENARIO:"would be C or A,as appropriate,and the user would have to take care that the list of cases used is appropriate for use with the C or A model.(Currently,all cases in the SCEN:...library are usable for constructing type S or C scenarios but need to be disaggregated for use in type A scenarios.) A variety of macros have been developed to perform several common operations on the library files.This section describes the functions and use of these macros. "----"-~~~~.._._--~---~-----~--------&SETUP­ &MUNICASE &DELCASE &DELSCN &LKCASE &OLKCASE &LKSCN &OLKSCN &ADCASE &SUBCASE &LISTLIB &DESCLIB &DESCASE &COPYCASE &CASECHEK &SCENCHEK Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984 a.&SETUP Ij 1-1 In order to establish a "case,"it would be possible to use a series of DEDIT commands in TROLL to input each of the affected data series.However,insofar as the scenario generator requires data files extending over the 1960-2030 range,this process would normally involve inputting a large number of zero values.Macro &SETUP is designed to make this input task simpler by setting up the affected series with zero values over the 1960-2030 range and permitting the user to replace the nonzero values of the series. Example:[A 100,000 BPD refinery project in Valdez requires construction employment of 752 persons for three years beginning in 1983.Thereafter,it employs 386 persons for ten years.] We will name this case ALP.100.indicating a 100,000 BPD version of the Alpetco proposal. two variables in the statewide model, To prepare a case for use in constructing use with the statewide model,the following This project affects namely EMCNX2 and EMMX1. an "s"type scenario ·for commands would suffice. TROLL COMMAND:&SETUP CASE NAME:ALP.100 VARIABLE NAME:EMCNX2 YEAR:1983 1983 .752 .752 .752 jFILE; TROLL COMMAND:&SETUP CASE NAME:ALP.100 VARIABLE NAME:EMMX1 YEAR:1986 1986 .386 .386 .386 .386 .386 .386 .386 .386 .386 .386 .i. FILE; To upgrade the case for use with the regionalization model, notice that the project is located entirely in Valdez and, consequently,affects only the variable B26.The case may be upgraded by the following commands. u. II(..-J TROLL COMMAND:&SETUP CASE NAME:ALP.100 VARIABLE NAME:B26 YEAR:1983 1983 .752 .752 .752 .386 .386 .386 •386 .386 jFILE; 15 b.&MUNICASE FIRST BASIC,SECOND BASIC,OR COMBINED CASE (F,S,OR C)?l ~ Finally.the user should add a comment to archive SCEN_ALP .100 in the form of a file named COMMENT whose "comment"contains a description of the case just input.Enter this comment with a DEDIT command in the archive for the case. To further upgrade the case for use with the municipality model. notice that the project affects only the variable C.MP.Bl in BIGMOD. Consequently.the case may be further upgraded by the following sequence: j J J ) 1 J ) ) .~ ) I I ! I j I B EMMX2 EMMX1 EMFISH EMAGRI A EMCNX1 EMP9 EMCNX2 EMT9X cas"e.·····~AB"C";·OOl •..-.-wl:ric:n·~is scenarios.suitable for B04 SCEN CASE NAME:ABC.001 DATA_SGEN_ABC.001_COMMENT &MUNICASE Example:The user wants to make currently suited only for type Sand C type A scenarios. Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984 The &MUNICASE macro takes a case which contains variables for type Sand C scenarios and adds to it non-Anchorage data files for type A scenarios (any files containing data for Anchorage should be added using the &SETUP macro).This macro should be run any time a new case is created. TROLL COMMAND:&SETUP CASE NAME:ALP.100 VARIABLE NAME:C.MP .B1 YEAR:1983 1983 .752 .752 .752 .386 .386 .386 .386 .386 1991 .386 .386 .386 .386 .386 iFILEi 1A fi~st basic case is generally one that contains any of the variables in column A (right).but ~in column B.A second basic case is one that contains variables in column B, but ~in column A.A combined case is one that contains variables from both columns. Each case should be placed in F,S,or C, depending upon an individual evaluation and review of the BIGMOD documentation. 16 11 t II. () IJ lJ Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984 c.&DELCASE The &DELCASE macro deletes all files associated with the particular case specified by the user. Example:Case ABC.001 is found to be in error or of no further value.To delete it,say: &DELCASE CASE TO BE DELETED:ABC.001 d.&DELSCN The &DELSCN macro deletes all files associated with the particular SCENARIO_archive specified by the user. Example:Scenario S.TEST1 is found to be of no further value. To delete it,say: &DELSCN SCENARIO TO BE DELETED:S.TEST1 e.&LKCASE and &OLKCASE In order to examine all of the variables in each case archive, two macros are available.Macro &LKCASE prints out all variables at the terminal.Macro &OLKCASE prints out the same tables offline at MIT. Example:To print out case ABC.001 offline. &OLKCASE CASE NAME:ABC.001 17 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984 f.&LKSCN and &OLKSCN In order to examine all of the variables in a SCENARIO archive, two macros are available.Macro &LKSCN prints out all variables at the terminal.Macro &OLKSCN prints out all variables offline at MIT. Example:To print out scenario S.TESTI at the terminal, &LKSCN NAME OF SCENARIO:S.TESTI g.&ADCASE If the user wishes to add a single case to a scenario.without rerunning the entire scenario generator,he or she may do so using macro &ADCASE. It requests the name of the SCENARIO archive to which the case will be added,the name of the incrementing case,the number of years the case is to be moved,~he type of scenario,and a name for the new'scenario.Upon completing the processing,it will request a description of the new scenario from the user.The user types in _t1:l~l!ew tt.~~_~ripti()Tl"_~()llowed by a semicolon and a file command. Example:You want to add case ABC.OOI to scenario S.TESTI and call the new scenario TEST2. &ADCASE OLD SCENARIO ARCHIVE:S.TESTI --rNCREMENT:.ENG-SCEN AR€H:.EVE:ABG.001- TYPE OF SCENARIO (S,C,or A):~ NEW SCENARIO ARCHIVE:S.TEST2 SCENARIO S.TESTI INCREMENTED BY CASE ABC.OOI MOVED 0 YEARS SAMPLE CASE TO TEST TH&SCENARIO GENERATOR SCENARIO S.TEST2 FILED IN SCENARIO ARCHIVE NEW COMMENT:SCENARIO S.TESTI INCREMENTED NEW COMMENT:BY CASE ABC.001 NEW COMMENT:jFILEj 18 I j I I I j ] j 1 j 1 _.j [ j J ) J j U LJ Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984 h.&SUBCASE If the user wishes to subtract a single case from a scenario without rerunning the scenario generator,he or she may do so using macro &SUBCASE,which operates in a manner analogous to &ADCASE above. Example:You want to take case ABC.001 out of scenario S.TEST2 and call the new scenario TEST1 .. &SUBCASE OLD SCENARIO ARCHIVE:S.TEST2 DECREMENTING SCEN ARCHIVE:ABC.001 START:Q TYPE OF SCENARIO (S,C,or A):~ NEW SCENARIO ARCHIVE:S.TEST1 SCEN~IO S.TEST2 DECREMENTED BY CASE ABC.001 MOVED 0 YEARS SAMPLE CASE TO TEST THE SCENARIO GENERATOR SCENARIO S.TEST1 FILED IN SCENARIO ARCHIVE NEW COMMENT:SCENARIO S.TEST2 DECREMENTED NEW COMMENT:BY CASE ABC.001 NEW COMMENT:iFILEi i.&LISTLIB Lists the currently available cases for use by the scenario generator.Require no arguments. j.&DESCLIB Lists the comments associated with all available cases in the SCEN_library.Requires no arguments. 19 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984 k.&DESCASE Lists the comments associated with a particular case in the SCEN_library. .Example:The user is unfamiliar with case ABC.001 and wants a description of its contents. 1 ) 1 I I &DESCASE 1.&COPYCASE OLD CASE NAME:ABC.001 THE VARIABLES IN CASE ABC.001 ARE: ABC.001CASENAME: DATA_SCEN_ABC.001_COMMENT EMCNX1 B04 &COPYCASE Copies all or part of a user-specified case. m.&CASECHEK Example:The user wants to copy one of the three files in case ABC.001. NEW CASE NAME:. ....~-------V:ARIABLES-TO-~BE-~COPTED-;-SEPARATED-~BY--SPACES-,--..---. FOLLOWED BY SEMICOLON EMCNX1; The &CASECHEK macro verifies thl3.tt:,het.Y1>~S,__C,and A components of a case are all consistent~-The macro·prints=a:-:-table showing the total non-Anchorage employment assumptions for each type.This macro should be run each time a new case is created. 1 l 20 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984 Example:The user wants to check that case ABC.OOl is consistent for use in all three models. &CASECHEK CASE NAMES,SEPARATED BY SPACES,FOLLOWED BY SEMICOLON ABC.001; n.&SCENCHEK The &SCENCHEK macro verifies that a type C and a type A scenario which contain identical case files are consistent.The macro prints a table showing the total non-Anchorage employment assumptions for each type. Example: and A type consistent. The user wants to verify that C type scenario C.TESTI scenario A.TEST1,which contain the same cases,are u II, tJ II"'..-.) 1I &SCENCHEK REGIONAL MODEL SCENARIO ARCHIVE:C.TESTI HUNI MODEL SCENARIO ARCHIVE:A.TESTI 21 Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984 TABLE 5.SUMMARY OF MAP MODEL BASE CASE ASSUMPTIONS FROM THE SCENARIO GENERATOR: DECEMBER 1984 SUSITNA STUDIES (S85.SUB4) ASSUMPTIONS DESCRIPTION(a) °National Variables Assumptions . J I I .1 U.S.Inflation Rate Consumer prices rise at 6.5 percent annually after 1985. 22 (a)Codes in parentheses indicate ISER names for.MAP Model SCEN_ case files. Growth in real average weekly earnings averages 1 percent annually. Operating employment remains constant at 990 through 2010 (TAP.F84).° ----"--~_.....•._.-_.- j oj .J ] J ] J oj .J 1 J J .J income after capita annually Employment in exploration and devel- opment of oil and gas in the Upper Cook Inlet area declines gradually beginning in 1983 by approximately 2.5 percent per year (UPC.F84). Long-run rate of 6 percent. Petroleum employment increases through the early 1990s to a peak of 4.6 thousand and subsequently tapers off gradually.Construction employ- ment is eliminated by the late 1990s. This case presumes no significant change in current oil price trends (NSO;84B-)··;···· Exploration and development activity grows thr'otighthe 'ffiid-1990s and direct employment continues through the following decade at a slightly reduced level of approximately 7,000 (OCS.CM3(-3». Growth in real per averages 1.5 percent 1984. OCS Development North Slope Petroleum Production Real Per Capita Income Trans-Alaska Pipeline Real Average Weekly Earnings Unemployment Rate Upper Cook Inlet Petroleum Production Industry Assumptions 11 I I 11 oil Industry Headquarters Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984 oil company headquarters employment in Anchorage rises by 1,150 between 1983 and 1986 to remain at around 4,600 through 2010 (OHQ.F84). Beluga Chuitna Coal Production Development of 4.4 million mine for export beginning provides total employment (BCL.04T(-4». ton/year in 1990 of 524 Healy Coal Mining Export of approximately 1 million of coal annually will add 25 workers to current base of 100 by (HCL.84X). tons new 1986 II u.s.Borax Greens Creek Mine The u.S.Borax mine near Ketchikan is brought into production with operating employment of 790 beginning in 1989 and eventually increa~ing to 1,020 (BXM.F84). Production from the Greens Creek Mine on Admiralty Island results in employment of 150 people from 1988 through 2003 (GCM.F84). The Red Dog Mine in the western Brooks Range reaches full production with operating employment of 428 by 1993 (RED.F84). IJ II Red Dog Mine ,Other Mining Activity Mining employment special projects current level at (OMN.F84). not included in increases from 1 percent annually I II, II Agriculture Logging and Sawmills Moderate state support results in expansion of employment in agriculture by 4 percent per year (AGR.F83). Employment expands to over 3,200 by 1990 before beginning to decline gradually to about 2,800 after 2000 (FLL.F84). Pulp Mills Employment 1 percent (FPU.F84). declines at a rate of per year after 1991 Commercial Fishing-Nonbottomfish Employment levels in traditional fisheries harvest remain constant at 7,500 through 2010 (TCF.F84). 23 Commercial Fish Processing Nonbottomfish Commercial Fishing-Bottomfish Federal Military Employment Light Army Division Deployment Tourism state Hydroelectric Projects state Revenue Assumptions -SeveJ:!anceTaxes - Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984 Employment in processing traditional fisheries harvests remains at the level of the average figure for the period 1978-1982,or around 7,300 (TFP;F84). The total u.s.bottomfish catch expands at a constant rate to allowable catch in 2000,with Alaska resident harvesting employment rising to 733.Onshore processing capacity expands in the Aleutians and Kodiak census divisions to provide total resident employment of 971 by 2000 (BCF.F83). Employment declines at 1 percent per year,consistent with the long-term trend since 1960 (GFM.F84). A portion of a new Army division is deployed to Fairbanks and Anchorage beginning in 1986,augmenting active- duty personnel by 2,600 (GFM.JPR) Rises at 0.5 percent annual rateconsistemtwitli--tne -16ng=cerm trend- since 1960 (GFC.F84). Number of visitors to Alaska increases by 50,000 per year to over 2 million by 2010 (TRS.F83). Construction employment from Alaska ~--~PowerAuthorityprojectspeaks at-over ---7-00---in~---1-9-90---~for---_cons_truc_tion o.f ._ several proj ects in Southcentral and Southeast Alaska (SHP.F83). .Based on 1984 Sherman Clark world oil price projection used to drive Alaska Department of Revenue -MJSENSO petro..... leum revenue model.Post-2000 values extrapolated at average rate of change for period 1997 to 2000 (SHC.B84). 24 I 1 1 I 1 ] ;Oi] ] J 1 1 I ! ! 1 ! ] "_I ,l Royalties Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation December 1984 Based on 1984 Sherman Clark world oil price projection used to drive Alaska Department of Revenue MJSENSO petro- leum revenue model.Post-2000 values extrapolated at average rate of change for period 1997 to 2000 (SHC.B84). Bonuses Nominal average of past values including major sales (SHC.B84). not IJ U I i Ij U Property Taxes Petroleum Corporate Income Tax Aggregation of property taxes specific petroleum activities upon model CORPTX (SHC.B84) (OCS.CM3(-3». Aggregation of corporate taxes specific petroleum activities upon model CORPTX (SHC.B84). 25 from based and from based 1983 0.37 2.991 0.672 7.558 17.729 22.261 1984 0.385 2.497 0.242 7.581 17 .818 22.038 1985 0.4 2.891 0.218 7.608 17 .907 21.818 1986 0.416 3.525 0.644 7.636 17 .996 24.2 1987 0.435 2.361 1.63 7.664 18.086 23.984 1988 0.454 1.609 1.391 7.681 18.177 23.77 1989 0.475 2.393 0.89 7.716 18.268 23.558 1990 0.496 2.703 1.025 7.729 18.359 23.349 1991 0.52 2.102 1.13 7.745 18.451 23.141 1992 0.544 0.944 1.29 7.766 18.543 22.936 1993 .0.513 .1.529 0.511 1.792 18.636 22.~132 1994 0.601 2.365 O.1 7.826 18.729 22.531 1995 0.633 1.461 O.7.868 18.823 22.332 1996 0.668 2.217 O.7.921 18.917 22.134 1997 0.704 0.717 O.7.988 19.011 21.939 1998 0.744 1.655 O.8.072 19.106 21.746 1999 0.788 0.783 O.8.178 19.202 21.554 2000 0.834 1.821 O.8.233 19.298 21.365 .~-~~~~------~~-_._._._..~-.--.--~._.....0.866~~~O.~783 ..O._.._-~..~~...-~-~--~--a:-233-'-~~--"--T9:~94---~-1-:-f7r--".2001 2002 0.899 0.336 O.8.233 19.491 20.991 2003 0.935 0.336 O.8.233 19.589 20.807 2004 0.971 0.336 O.8.233 19.687 20.625 2005 1.008 0.336 O.8.233 19.785 20.445 2006 1.047 0.336 O.8.233 19.884 20.266 2007 1.089 0.336 O.8.233 19.984 20.09 2008 1.132 0.336 O.8.233 20.083 19;915 2009 1.176 0.336 O.8.233 20.184 19.742 2010 1.223 0.336 O.8.233 20.285 19.57 TABLE 6.STATE VARIABLES:SCENARIO S85.SUB4 Part A:Economic Variables (000) Federal Government Employment "J j '! ] J .J .~.,..,.,r~~1 J j j 1 I ] 1 j J 1 J J Military (EMGM) Civil ian (EMGC) Institute of Social and Economic Research MAP Documentation Decenber 1984 Fish Harvesting Employment (EMFISH) 26 construction Employment High Wage Regular wage (EMCNX1)(EMCNX2) Agricultural Employment (EMAGRI) Institute of Social and Economic Research HAP Documentation Decenber 1984 Table 6,Part A (continued) 11 Manufacturing Employment Petroleum and Mining Pipeline High Wage Regular Wage Employment Employment Tourists (EMMXl)(EMMX2)(EMP9)(EMT9X)(TOURIST) 1983 O.8.938 8.179 1.1 730.r~-I 1984 O.10.802 9.389 1.039 780.II 1985 O.11.129 10.391 1.116 830. [l 1986 O.11.33 11.125 1.116 880. 1987 O.11.536 12.379 1.136 930. 1988 O.11.652 12.068 1.269 980. i-j 1989 O.11.724 13.841 1.588 1030. 1990 O.11.785 14.157 1.657 1080. 1991 O.11.805 13.736 1.538 1130. 1992 O.11.817 13.627 1.393 1180. 1993 O.11.837 1~.412 2.114 1230. 1994 O.11.868 17.82 3.096 1280. 1995 O.11.914 18.965 3.461 1330. 1996 O.11.979 18.168 2.981 1380. U 1997 O.12.072 18.78 3.01 1430. 1998 O.12.203 20.142 3.62 1480. 1999 O.12.386 19.992 3.498 1530. 2000 O.12.618 20.083 3.517 1580. 2001 O.12.564 19.468 3.187 1630. 2002 O.12.533 17 .837 2.706 1680. 2003 O.12.502 17 .062 2.326 1730. 2004 O.12.471 16.693 2.335 1780. 2005 O.12.44 16.742 2.335 1830. LI 2006 O.12.313 16.782 2.335 1880. 2007 O.12.126 16.187 2.335 1930. U 2008 O.12.118 16.218 2.335 1980. 2009 O.12.111 16.231 2.335 2030. 2010 O.12.104 16.243 2.335 2080. U 27 Institute of Social and Economic Research HAP Documentation Decent>e r 1984 TABLE 6.STATE VARIABLES:SCENARIO S85.SUB4 Part B:State Petroleum Revenues (mi 11 ion $) Property Severance Corporate Income Bonuses Taxes Royalties Taxes Taxes (RPBS)(RPPS)(RPRY)(RPTS)(RTCSPX) 1983 48.3 152.6 1443.6 1493.236. 1984 13.5 131.1404.5 1392.327. 1985 7.145.1484.61 1478.22 347. 1986 7.159.1620.81 1585.65 381. 1987 7.183.1775.68 1726.16 428. 1988 7.187.323 1950.28 1901.39 441. 1989 7.189.037 2211.31 1834.54 435. 1990 7.184.249 2414.87 2001.94 432. 1991 7.193.876 2365.16 1891.19 435. 1992 7.197.125 2369.94 1840.35 442. 1993 7.206.815 2580.39 1959.97 443. 1994~-~~7.~23l;002 2642.99 196~1-;6------445~~ 1995 7.219.375 2684.84 1969.15 435. 1996 7.254.837 2784.84 1982.17 435. 1997 7.240.011 2900.09 2033.92 438. 1998 7.270.521 3052.37 2086.43 463. 1999 7.321.896 3155.62 2085.74 491. 2000 7.411.148 3314.17 2133.67 501. ...-.-..~_._~._._-_..._..._._._._---..__2001 _____~_L 41a._8]_9~___3Afi6~.O_6_2JH._83_~__493. 2002 7.508.757 3624.9 2202.53 474. 2003 7.500.099 3791.03 2237.79 469. 2004 7.491.67 3964.77 2273.62 461. 2005 7.484.174 4146.47 2310.01 461. 2006 7.476.435 4336.5 2347.461. 2007 7.467.379 4535.24 2384~57 450. 2008 7.4~~.•7513 4743 •.09 24?2.7S 4S5. 2009 7.450.472 4960.46 2461.53 464. 2010 7.440.149 5187.79 2500.94 473. 28 1' -] 1 I J ] ,.1 1