HomeMy WebLinkAboutAPA4007v2I---IAR.ZA ENGI~IEERING COMPANY
VOLUME II ~DETAILED
PROGRAM
U I
HYDR,OELECTRIC
PROJECT
SEPTEMEBER 1979
ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY
ANCHORAGE/ALASKA
PLAN OF STUDY
FOR
PROJECT FEASIBILITY AND
FERC L1ICENSE APPLICATION
VOLUME II
DETAILED PROGRAM
GENERAL CONTENTS
TABLE OF CONTENTS
INTRODUCTION
PART A PUBLIC INFORMATION AND PARTICIPATION
PART B PLANNING AND ENGINEERING STUDIES
PHASE I Basin Planning Studies-
PHASE II Feasibility Studies
PHASE III FERC License Application
PART C ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES
PART D DETAILED BUDGET ESTIMATES
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VOLUME II
TABLE ~CONTENTS
INTRODUCTION
PART A -PUBLIC INFORMATION AND PARTICIPATION PROGRAM
Summary of Approach
Specific Tasks
Task 'P-l
Task P-2
Task P-3
Task P-4
Task P-5
Task P-6
Task P-7
Technical Advisory Committee
PART B -PLANNING AND ENGINEERING STUDIES
Phase I Basin Planning Studies
Mobilization and Logistics
Data Collection and Review
Photography,Mapping and Surveys
Reconnaissance Mapping
Dam Site Mapping
River Valley Maps
Channel Surveys
Additional Mapping
Hydrologic and River Hydraulic Studies
Data Collection and Field Investigation
Delineation of Baseline Conditions
Estimation of Available Water Supply,Floods
and Sedimentation
Evaluation of Data Collection Program
Geotechnical Studies
Introduction
Phase I -Basin Planning Study
Review of Existing Data
Map Studies of Susitna River Basin
Field Reconnaissance
Damsite Investigations
Reservoir Investigations
Seismicity and Fault Studies
Evaluation of Alternative Sites
Reconnaissance for Project Access Roads
and Transmission Lines
Planning of Feasibility Stage Investigation
Program
Planning of Feasibility Studies
Page
1
1
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
5
6
6
7
7
7
8
8
8
9
9
9
10
10
II
II
12
12
13
13
14
14
15
16
16
17
18
18
19
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -i-
TABLE OF CONTENTS (Cont'd)
Power Market Studies
Data Collection and Interviews
Market Area Description
Analysis of Load Data
Load Forecasts
Alternative Sources of Generation
Identification of Alternative Sources
Fuel Resources Availability and Costs
Conventional Thermal Alternatives
Alternative Hydro Projects
Other Alternative Sources
Comparison of Alternative Sources
Reservoir Operation and System Generation
Cost Studies
Hydroelectric Project Operation
Economic Dispatch Studies
Institutional Aspects
Hydroelectric Project Studies
Introduction
Data Collection and Review
Reconnaissance Studies
Identified Project Studies
Basin Development Plan
Transmission System
Data Collection and Review
Preliminary Studies
Construction Costs and Proqrams
Economic and Financial Analysis
Economic Analysis
Financial Analysis
Basin Plan Report
Phase II -Feasibility Studies
Hydrologic and River Hydraulics Studies
Available Water Supply
Flood Analysis
Sedimentation
Tailwater Curves and Water Surface Profiles
Water Quality Studies
License Application
Page
19
20
20
22
22
25
25
26
26
28
29
29
30
30
31
33
34
34
34
35
37
40
41
41
41
44
44
44
45
45
46
46
46
47
48
49
49
50
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -ii-
TABLE OF CONTENTS (Cont'd)
Geotechnical Studies
Introduction
Geotechnical Investigations
Foundation Investigations
Reservoir Investigations
Geophysical Investigations
Seismicity and Fault Investiqations
Construction Materials Investigations
Laboratory Testing Program
Instrumentation Program
Feasibility Level Layouts and Design Studies
Special Studies
Fault Activity and Seismic Risk
Feasibility Report
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Licensing
Hydroeletric Project Studies
Access and Relocations
Dams and Reservoirs
Power Facilities
Cold Regions Engineering Aspects
Reservoir Operation Studies
Transmission System
Construction Costs and Programs
Introduction
Constructability Analysis
Cost Estimates
Construction Schedule
Expenditure Schedule and Escalation
Power System Expansion Programs
Alternative Expansion Plans
Outage Rate and Reserve Requirements
Monthly Hydro Availability
Expenditure Schedules
Economic Analysis
Criteria for Economic Analysis
Expansion Program Cash Flow
Economic Analysis
Page
50
50
51
52
53
54
54
55
56
57
58
63
66
66
66
67
67
67
70
71
75
75
76
76
77
77
78
78
79
79
79
no
80
80
80
82
82
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -iii-
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TABLE OF CONTENTS (Cont'd)
Financial Analysis
Criteria for Financial Analysis
Exp?nsion Program Financial Requirements
Development and Analysis of Financing Plans
Institutional Analysis
Feasibility Report
Phase III -FERC License Application
PART C -ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES
Human Ecology
Task S-l Electrical Constumption Patterns
Task S-2 Population Projections
Task S-3 Socio-Economic Characteristics
Task S-4 Social Impacts
Aquatic Ecology
Freshwater Studies
Upper Cook Inlet
Riverine Baseline Studies
Task A-I Water Qualtiy
Task A-2 Physical Parameters
Task A-3 Instream Flow Studies
Task A-4 Aquatic Vegetation
Task A-5 Invertebrates
Task A-6 Anadromous Fish
Task A-7 Resident Fish
Estuarine Baseline Studies
Task A-8 Water Quality and Quantity
Task A-9 Fish
Task A-10 Invertebrates
Task A-II Commercial and Sport Fisheries
Assessment and Mitigation
Task A-12 Limiting Factors
Task A-13 Impacts of Alternatives
Task A-14 Evaluation of Alternatives
Task A-15 Mitigation Measures
Reports and License Application
Task A-16 Reports
Page
82
82
83
83,
83
84
84
87
87
88
88
89
90
91
91
92
93
93
94
94
95
95
95
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98
98
99
99
99
100
100
100
100
101
101
101
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -iv-
TABLE OF CONTENTS (Cont'd)
Page
Terrestial Ecology
'Task T-l
Task T-2
Task '1'-3
Task T-4
'!'ask '1'-5
Vegitation ?1appinq
Wetlands
Riparian Haritat
Non-Game Animals
Biq ~ame
102
102
103
103
104
105
History and
Task H-l
Task H-2
Task H-3
Task H-4
Task H-5
Archeology
Office Preparation
Reconnaissance Surveys
Detailed Field Surveys
Transmission Corridors
Report
107
108
III
112
113
113
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Recreation Resources
Task R-1 Existing Resources
Task R-2 Impacts
Land Management and Aesthetics
Task V-I Existing Resources
Task V-2 Impacts
Resource Inventory and Data Management
Project Data Needs
Data Collection
Data Analysis and Display
PART D -DETAILED BUDGET ESTIMATE
114
114
115
116
116
117
118
119
119
120
121
11-100 8 Sept.1919 -v-
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VOLUME II
DETAILED PROGRAM
INTRODUCTION
The activities described here will be undertaken to
definitively assess the feasibility of development of the Upper
Susitna River Basin for hydroelectric power and allied purposes.
As described in Part A,Section 2,of Volume I,a three-phase
approach will be employed.Phase I will consist of a Basin
Planning Study to identify the plan of optimum development of the
Upper Susitna River and select the most favorable Initial
Project.Phase II will consist of a Feasibi-lity Study of the
initial project and Phase III will be the preparation and support
of an FERC license application for this Initial Project.The
work programs for these phases are described below.
This Plan of Study constitutes a detailed work program by
disciplines,but we expect that some modifications may be
necessary after review by APA and subsequent discussion with
other agencies and members of the public as called for by APA.
Some modifications also will be required on the basis of results
obtained in the course of the study.The detailed work program
for each phase and item of study will be presented in a series of
investigation memoranda for approval by APA.These will be
working documents subject to revision as may be required by the
course of the study.
This volume has been divided into four parts,as follows:
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Part A
Part B
Part C
Part D
Public Information and Participation Program
Planning and Engineering Studies
Environmental Studies
Detailed Budget Estimates
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PART A
PUBLIC INFORMATION AND PARTICIPATION PROGRAM
Summary of Approach
The Susitna Valley is perceived as a significant wilderness
area by many groups and individuals in Alaska.Hydroelectric
development in the basin has generated considerable interest and
concern since it was first seriously considered in the 1950's.
As knowledge of the current intensification of project planning
spreads,this interest in the project,potential project impacts,
and in the project planning process will increase greatly.
Public concerns regarding the project,in particular Alaska
energy needs and development,environmental sensitivities,and
prospective economic growth,were discussed at the meeting held
July 19,1979 at the APA offices.Representatives of several
environmental groups assisted in the identification of key issues
related to the project and the project planning process.
Although public participation is built into the EIS process,we
believe it is highly desirable that public involvement go
considerably beyond the conduct of meetings to solicit comments
and reactions to information and proposals that are in an
advanced state of planning.To that end,the program should
solicit public involvement at the earliest possible date and,if
possible,prior to finalization of the Plan of Study (paS),
promote public awareness throughout the course of the studies,
and provide channels for input and workshops for participation,
together with a vehicle for specific and continuing feedback.
The public will be very interested in the determination of
need for,and the economics and technical feasibility of,the
project,and in the consideration of alternative energy sources.
The Public Information and Participation Program (PIPP)discussed
below has been developed specifically to provide an organized
focus for'public opinion and feedback so that public inputs and
concerns can be integrated into all phases of the pas.Key
objectives of the program are:
1)to present factual information and data relative to the
project and project background and to inform the public
of the proposed planning process as a basis for
facilitating pUblic understanding,
2)to make the entire planning process
to the public,and to actively
informed participation by all
communities to be affected,
easily accessible,
encourage broad,
sectors of the
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -1-
3)to ensure that public inputs are fully considered along
with technical information in the planning and decision
-making process,and
4)to document pUblic participation as fully as possible
for future reference by APA,FERC,and other
organizations and agencies.
We suggest that the organization to manage the pUblic
information and participation program be simple and direct.We
propose to engage an Alaskan resident as manager of the program.
The manager will report directly to the Resident Manager and will
work in close cooperation with all key project personnel and with
the APA staff.The qualifications of the position will dictate
that the person have a thorough background of Alaskan attitudes,
customs,and viewpoints and is familiar with local issues.The
manager of the PIPP should also have an appreciation for the
environmental values that are at stake in the project,and should
have,or develop,creditability with the environmental community
and the public at large.
The principal tasks of the PIPP will be to facilitate a
two-way flow of information between the project team (APA and the
Engineer)and the pUblic and to keep the entire planning
procedure open and accessible.The manager of PIPP,as well as
other key project personnel,should expect to devote significant
amounts of time to public meetings,workshops,and conversations
with interested individuals.In the Anchorage office,they will
be assisted by a resident staff as required by frequency of
public contacts,meetings,and preparation of informational
releases.The PIPP director will also maintain coodination with
the Engineer's Home Office to ensure that public inputs are
considered in all aspects of project planning.
It is anticipated that as the PIPP director will become
known through public and media contact,and that enquiries will
come directly to him regarding the project.In addition,
enquiries directed to other members of the project team will be
referred to him so that he can ensure that full and accurate
information is obtained from the proper sources and prOVided to
the inquirer.The director will also actively seek out opinions
and reactions to the project from segments of the population who
may have an interest but are not prone to take an active
position.
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Specific Tasks
The following specific tasks are indicative of the type of
activities to be undertaken by the Public Information and
Participation Program.
Identify organizations and individuals to receive
information materials and meeting notices.The staff of the PIPP
will prepare a list of names and addresses of organizations and
individuals who are interested in receiving information about the
study or who may wish to provide specific inputs to certain
aspects of the study.Names will be obtained from public
officials,community leaders,environmental groups,previous
Corps of Engineers EIS respondees,and by advertising in the
local media.The lists will be started at the initiation of the
project and will remain open throughout its course,with periodic
major efforts at expanding its scope.
Assist APA in organizing an initial public meeting(s)to
introduce the engineer and discuss the study program.As soon as
the POS is finalized following selection of an engineer,a
presentation should be made to the public to explain the study
objectives and procedures.The PIPP personnel will assist the
APA in preparation for,and conduct of this program.It may be
desirable that this presentation be made in more that one
location (e.g.,Anchorage,Fairbanks,Palmer,Talkeetna,etc.).
This presentation should be supplemented,both before and after,
by a broad-scale public awareness campaign to announce the
presentation,describe the objectives of the study,and to
solicit public response.
Prepare and disseminate a series of fact sheets or
newsletters to advise the public of the progress of the study and
its findings as a basis for facilitating informed public
discussion.The fact sheets will summarize current information
and indicate the availability of more detailed data.This should
be supplemented by information provided to the news media
relating to the purpose and design of the overall study,study
findings,and proposed future steps to be taken.This
information dissemination will facilitate informed public
participation and attendance at public meetings and workshops.
11-100 8 Sept.1919 -3-
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Organize and conduct small group workshops to exchange
information,identify public concerns,and propose corrective
actions for consideration.Following the initial public
meeting(s),the staff of the PIPP and other project personnel
will organize and conduct small workshops in the Susitna Valley
communities and with interested groups in Anchorage,Fairbanks,
Palmer and elsewhere to actively work in an informal manner with
individuals and groups interested in participating in the study.
Topics for these workshops may range from general interchange of
ideas to in depth consideration of specific areas of interest or
concern (e.g.,social impacts on Talkeetna,potentials for
recreation development,or alternative energy sources).If
desired on the part of individual workshop groups,they could be
encouraged and assisted in development of their own background
research.
Attend meetings of local service organizations and special
interest groups to discuss project activities and objectives.
The PIPP will actively seek opportunities to speak before service
organizations and special interest groups.Special interest
groups may take the lead in presenting their views.Other groups
may be less prone to do so,but the director of PIPP will attend
their meetings and will request opportunities to discuss the
study.
Assist APA in presenting key study findings throughout the
study.At various times throughout the planning process (e.g.,
during final evaluation of project alternatives)the APA may wish
to seek public comment in the more formalized setting of official
meetings.The PIPP staff will assist in the preparation,
advertising,and conduct of such meetings and will follow up with
smaller meetings and workshops to obtain an in-depth cross
section reaction or public viewpoint.
Document the results of public participation throughout the
planning process.The PIPP staff will prepare monthly reports on
their activities and the nature of their contacts with the
public.Summaries will also be prepared for all public meetings
and workshops.The summaries will describe the purpose of the
meeting,a characterization of the group participating (incl~ding
signature sheets with name and address of all participants),the
information presented,and the ideas and concerns expressed by
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -4-
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the pUblic.These reports and summaries should be factual,and
will be routinely made available to the APA,key project
personnel,participating groups,and upon request,to the public.
An official file will also be maintained to be submitted as
documentation to state and federal regulatory agencies.
Technical Advisory Committee
In addition to the Public Information and Participation
Program,a Technical Advisory Committee should be established in
cooperation with APA to provide specific lines of two-way
communication between project planners and interested state and
federal agencies.Our experience has shown that such an
organization,as long as it would not conflict with the existing
Governor's Devil Canyon Task Force,could serve many of the same
functions by opening lines of communication and resolving
potential questions or conflicts at an early stage rather than
waiting for formal submission and response.The committee would
also consider technical issues (e.g.,review initial study
programs for adequacy and completeness,periodically review
results)and advise the APA as to any expansion or alteration of
the study effort that might be justifiable in their view.
It is recommended that this committee be composed of
representatives of at least the following groups and agencies:
Alaska Power Authority
Engineer (including Resident Manager and Director of PIPP)
Alaska Governor's Office
Alaska Department of Environmental Conservation
Alaska Department of Fish and Game
Alaska Department of Natural Resources
Alaska Department of Commerce and Economic Development
Alaska Department of Community and Regional Affairs
U.S.Fish and Wildlife Service
U.S.Bureau of Land Management
U.S.Army Corps of Engineers
Cook Inlet Region,Inc.
Matanuska -Susitna Borough
One of the first tasks of this committee should be a
thorough review of the final Plan of Study following selection of
the Engineer.Subsequently they should have periodic
informational meetings,and special meetings for review and
comment at key decision points.
11-100 8 Sept •.1979 -5-
preparation of a
of development
resource,and to
and financially
PART B
PLANNING AND ENGINEERING STUDIES
PHASE I -BASIN PLANNING STUDY
A Basin Plan for hydropower development of the Upper Susitna
Basin will be developed during this phase and be compared with
non-basin alternatives for meeting power system load
requirements.In so far as possible,the planning studies will
be based on available data that have been collected and used in
previous reports,primarily by the Corp of Engineers.It will be
necessary to review and evaluate the data to assure full
development of the Upper Susitna River resource,while at the
same time providing projects that are scaled to meet market
requirements and are environmentally acceptable.Where
necessary,additional information will be collected;particularly
geotechnical data,aerial photos,and topographic maps relating
to the project layouts that will be prepared for the potential
sites along the Susitna River.It will also be necessary to
update basic information that is available for power markets and
other aspects.Environmental data collection programs will be
required to adequately address the issues raised by the
Governor's Devil Canyon Task Force.The Phase I work program,
shown on Exhibit 6-1,of Part A,Volume I,is scheduled to be
accomplished between January and November 1980,with a draft
report ready for public discussion by pctober 15.
Phase I will include the definitive studies of power market
and alternative sources of generation.This scheduling will
contribute to the evaluation of alternatives in Phase I but is
intended primarily to assure the availability of these completed
studies at the beginning of Phase II.Power market projections,
alternative sources of generation,and alternative fuels are
expected to be among the areas of interest and comment by the
pUblic.A related item to be included in Phase I is the
development of the detailed methodology for the Phase II studies
of power system expansion and operation,which will include the
economic dispatch program and estimates of system generation
cost.
The Phase I studies will culminate in the
Basin Plan Report which will identify the plan
best adapted to make optimum use of the Susitna
select an initial project which is economically
feasible.
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -6-
MOBILIZATION AND LOGISTICS
Initiation of Phase I activities will include mobilization
of Harza and subcontractor staff and organization of the field
operations.The logistical effort has been described in Part A,
Section 4,of Volume I.
DATA COLLECTION AND REVIEW
Available data and reports will be collected,organized,and
analyzed at the beginning of Phase I for use as a basis for
planning studies.Discussions will be held with local officials.
The data will be reviewed carefully with particular emphasis on
additional data requirements for completion of Phase I studies,
to the desired level of detail,as described previously in
Part A,Section 2.Much of the identification of available data
has been accomplished during preparation of this Plan of Study.
Specific items of data collection and review are discussed under
individual work items as appropriate.
PHOTOGRAPHY,MAPPING AND SURVEYS
A program of aerial photography,mapping,and surveys will
be undertaken to provide a basis for the planning studies.The
new maps and photos will supplement existing data.USGS
quadrangle maps with a scale of 1 inch =1 mile and 100-foot
contour interval are available for the entire basin.Photos
taken in 1949-50,to prepare the quadrangle maps,are available
at a scale of 1:40,000.High-altitude photography (1:120,000)
and LANDSAT imagery are also available from various sources.The
photography,mapping,and survey program has been planned to
accommodate seasonal constraints,as shown on Exhibit 6-1 of
Volume I.
The major components include (1)reconnaissance mapping,
(2)dam site mapping,(3)river valley mapping,(4)channel
surveys,and (5)additional mapping.These are described
separately below.
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Reconnaissance Mapping
An initial step in the planning studies will be to prepare
reconnaissance maps of the Susitna River valley.These maps will
be prepared using color infrared photographs recently taken by
NASA and standard photogrammetric methods.The map scale will be
about 1"=1000 feet,with a 25-foot contour interval.These maps
will be used in developing preliminary area and capacity curves,
etc.,for potential dam sites.
Dam Site MapDing
It is anticipated that about six potential dam sites will be
identified in the basin planning studies.Low-altitude aerial
photos will be taken in early spring,as soon as the snow cover
has melted.Dam site photo mosaics will be prepared for each
site.
At these sites,existing ground control will be used and the
control will be brought to each site using a level.Dam site
maps of a scale 1 inch =100 feet or 1 inch =200 feet with a
contour interval of 5 feet will be prepared using photogrammetric
methods.These maps will be used for making dam and appurtenant
structures layouts.
River Valley ~
Aerial photos of the Susitna River Valley will be taken from
Talkeetna to Denali Highway,a distance of 180 river miles,
during the spring of 1980.River valley maps will be prepared
using the aerial photography and photogrammetric methods.The
horizontal ground control would be obtained from existing USGS
quadrangle maps.The vertical ground control would be
established using a precise altimeter.The river valley maps
will be prepared for the reach from Talkeetna to just upstream
from the confluence with the MaClaren River,which is near the
upstream end of a possible Vee Canyon Reservoir.These maps will
cover a distance of about 120 river miles and probably average
two miles wide,enough to encompass any planned reservoir rim.
Additional width may be specified in local areas of interest for
off-channel storage.The maps will be prepared at a scale of
1 inch =800 feet with a 20-foot contour interval.
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -8-
Channel Surveys
A limited program of channel surveys will be undertaken in
selected reaches t6 define the channel geometry for estimation of
water surface profiles.Channel surveys will be taken in the
fall of 1980 downstream from the selected dam site,in order to
estimate the tailwater conditions and predict downstream
degradation.Additionally,channel surveys may be required in
selected reaches between Talkeetna and the selected dam site to
define pre-project and post-project water surface profiles.
These profiles will be used in environmental studies to assess
the project impacts on moose feeding grounds.Additionally,
channel surveys will be taken in the downstream reaches to
provide input to water quality river system modeling to assess
the effects of any proposed reservoir.
Additional MaDDing
It is anticipated that additional aerial photos and mapping
will be required during Phase II,during May -June 1981,
possibly along critical reaches of the transmission line or
access road or extensions of the damsite areas to assist in
making final plan layouts and cost estimates.The extent of work
required will be determined during the Phase II studies.
HYDROLOGIC AND RIVER HYDRAULIC STUDIES
The climate of the Upper Susitna Basin is basically
subarctic,and can be characterized as transitional between the
maritime climate of the southern coasts and continental climate
of northern inland Alaska.Orographic effects are also
pronounced so that hydrologic conditions in the basin vary
considerably depending on time of the year and location in the
basin.
The hydrologic analysis during the Phase I study will
emphasize maximum utilization of results of the previous studies
made by the U.S.Army Corps of Engineers,U.S.Bureau of
Reclamation and Kaiser Engineers.This will allow the
meteorological and hydrologic information required for the site
selection and primary layouts to be prepared in time for use by
all project personnel.More detailed studies may be needed for
the site or sites selected for feasibility stUdy and license
application.These studies will be made in phase II.
In both Phase I and Phase II studies,careful considerations
will be given to the unique characteristics of the subarctic
11-100 8 Sept.1919 -9-
climate,permafrost and glacial sediment.
includes the following major items.
The Phase I Study
...
~Collection and Field Investigation
Hydrologic data for all stream gaging stations in the
Susitna River have been collected from the U.S.Geological
Survey (USGS)through the WATSTORE System.These data include
daily and monthly streamflows as well as flow duration curves and
flood and low flow frequency curves.Considerable climatological
data for stations in the project basin and its vicinity have been
collected from National Weather Service (NWS)and other agencies
including U.S.'Bureau of Land Management (BLM).
An aerial and ground reconnaissance of the project basin and
streams will be made by a senior hydrologist.The field
investigation will emphasize observation or basin and stream
characteristics,and distribution of basin erosion sedimentation,
as affected by the glaciers and permafrost.Local authorities in
meteorology and hydrology,including NWS,USGS,and other
agencies,will be visited.
An in-depth study will be made of previous experience in the
operation of reservoirs under cold regions conditions and
previous research studies dealing with the hydraulics of ice
covered channels and reservoirs.This study will consist of a
detailed survey of the literature,direct contacts with agencies
and individuals knowledgeable on this subject,and formulation of
a continuing program with the concurrence of APA.
Delineation of Baseline Conditions
Collected data will be used to delineate baseline
climatological and hydrologic conditions.Many climatological
factors such as temperature,precipitation and wind velocity will
affect the design,construction and operation of the project
including the transmission lines.Permafrost may cause serious
engineering problems such as thawing of the foundation for a fill
dam due to impoundment of water in the reservoir.
Delineation of the baseline conditions will be oriented
toward engineering considerations as well as ror evaluating
environmental impacts of the project.The baseline conditions to
be delineated include:average,high and low flows in the
streams;icing conditions;stream sediment concentration and
water quality;land use;distribution of permafrost;and
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pertinent climatological parameters such as average and extreme
precipitation,temperature and wind velocity.
Estimation of Available Water Supply,Floods,
and Sedimentation
There may be a large number of potential alternative
projects to be considered during Phase I.The estimation of
available water supply,floods and sedimentation will primarily
be based on results of the previous studies and updated
hydrologic data without elaborate analyses.
Updated daily and monthly streamflow data have been
collected from the WATSTORE system of USGS.The collected data
also includes flow duration curves and flood and low flow
frequency curves.Most of these data can be transposed to each
potential site with minimum effort.PMF's have been estimated
for the Devil Canyon and Watana Sites by the Corps of Engineers.
These estimates will be transposed to each potential site to
determine preliminary design floods without further analysis
until specific projects are selected for further study in
Phase II.Sediment rating curves and other sediment data have
been collected for all gaging stations on the Susitna River.
These data will be used in conjunction with the flow duration
curves to estimate average annual sediment load at each potential
damsite.Potential reservoir sedimentation will be estimated by
applying trap efficiencies to be estimated based on the relative
size of the reservoir with respect to the average annual flow.
No detailed analysis of sediment distribution in the reservoir
will be made in the Phase I Study.
Evaluation Qf Data Collection Program
Existing meterological and hydrologic data collection
networks in and adjacent to the Upper Susitna Basin and along the
potential transmission lines will be evaluated for their adequacy
for project design and operation as well as proper monitoring of
environmental parameters as required by the regulatory agencies.
Based on the results of the evaluation,an improved network and
observation program will be formulated and recommended to Alaska
Power Authority (APA)for execution by appropriate agencies.
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -11-
GEOTECHNICAL STUDIES
Introduction
The geotechnical work which we anticipate would be carried
out as part of Harza's study of hydroelectric power development
in the Susitna River Basin is described here.The study will be
divided into two phases,Basin Planning Studies -Phase I and
Feasbility Studies -Phase II.The geotechnical work associated
with each phase is summarized here,followed by the description
of Phase I activities.The Phase II activities are described
later under that heading.
The Basin Planning Studies will encompass an approximately
100 mile long reach of the Susitna River from near Portage Creek
to the previously identified Denali Reservoir.Geotechnical
reconnaissance will be carried out on this entire'reach in
support of engineering planning studies of potential dam and
reservoir sites.This will be followed by more detailed geologic
mapping of designated potential sites and reservoir areas
including most of those previously studied by the U.S.Bureau of
Reclamation (USBR),the U.S.Army Corps of Engineers,and others.
These field activities,surficial in scope,and concurrent office
studies will provide adequate geotechnical basis for evaluation
and planning layouts of sites selected for the Basin Development
Plan.Most of this work would be accomplished during Spring and
Summer of 1980.
Feasibility Studies -Phase II -will be carried out for the
site singled out for recommended initial development.Field work
will include subsurface boring investigations and testing,
geophysical exploration,exploration for construction materials,
completion of detailed geologic mapping and laboratory testing
programs related to foundation evaluation and materials
utilization.Field studies initiated during Phase I will be
continued for selection of access road route,transmission line
corridor,potential for manufacture of cement in the project area
and for evaluation of geologic hazards,in particular,those
dealing with seismic exposure and risk and with fault activity.
Geologic and geotechnical evaluation or the field and
laboratory data will provide significant input ror selection of
type of dam,arrangement of project structures,materials source
exploitation,and feasibility level design of foundations and
foundation treatment for all project structures both above ground
and underground.The scope of the field investigations and the
level of the geotechnical studies and analyses will be planned
and executed so as to demonstrate the feasibility of the initial
project and to fulfill the requirements for License Application
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -12-
to the FERC.The bulk of the geotechnical feasibility work will
be done during the Spring and Summer of 1981.
Phase ~-Basin Planning Study
Review of Existing ~
This task will include detailed study and review of the
reports and data compiled by the Bureau of Reclamation (USBR),
the U.S.Army Corps of Engineers (USCE),Kaiser Engineers,and
other available information.The information on regional and
project geology,foundation conditions,construction materials,
drill hole logs and test pits will be reviewed and evaluated to
confirm the recommendations and the conclusions of these
agencies.The data on depth and distribution of permafrost,
ambient ground temperature and thickness of the "active"layer
will also be reviewed along with updated piezometer and
temperature probe measurements.
Data research will also include sources such as the Alaska
Geological Survey,the U.S.Geological Survey,the University of
Alaska Department of Geology and the Geophysical Research
Insititute,the Cold Regions Research and Engineering
Laboratories in Hanover,New Hampshire,and pertinent work of
other agencies,universities and researchers.
Studies by the USBR and USCE have also identified areas of
landslides and potential instability in proposed reservoirs
either under changed thermal regime conditions or seismic event.
We will identify these areas in relation to the specific sites
and use this information in planning our studies.
The information gathered from seismic refraction surveys for
the Watana and the Devil Canyon sites will be reviewed and
evaluated.We will seek assistance of a specialist in this task
to assure that state-of-the-art techniques are employed.The
data will be used to make some judgment on other potential sites
with similar geologic and topographic character.
Considerable efforts have already been directed towards a
seismic risk evaluation of the area's potential sites.The data
reported to date by the USBR,and the USCE and others,is
considered to be preliminary.This data will be re-evaluated
along with other available pUblished and unpublished literature.
This task will be performed by Woodward-Clyde Consultants (WCC)
in cooperation with Harza.We believe that along with their
expertise in the field of seismicity relating to the geotechnical
work,their experience gathered on the Alaska pipeline project
11-100 B Sept.1979 -13-
...
will make positive contributions to the Susitna Basin project
studies.
Map Studies of Susitna River Basin
Topographic and geologic maps available from various reports
and from the USGS will be studied to aid the selection of
potential sites for basin development.The information available
in published articles,state or federal documents,and
unpublished works will be reviewed.Factors such as surface
access to the site,route locations for reconnaissance and
detailed investigations will be evaluated.Much information
already is available for Watana,Devil Canyon,Vee Canyon and
Denali sites and will be used as part of the study.
Aerial photographs and other imagery will be studied to
obtain information of surface geologic features,terrain,
geologic structure,and permafrost distribution.Discussions
with appropriate agencies and individuals will be held to gain
access to unpublished data and to benefit from the individual's
knowledge and experience regarding the study area.This activity
will help identify sites for consideration,thereby keeping the
later field reconnaissance activities within reasonable limits.
A program for field reconnaissance and the necessary geotechnical
investigations will then be planned.A plan of field activities
will also be submitted to the BLM or other jurisdictional
agencies for approval of access on land under their jurisdiction •
Field Reconnaissance
Field geotechnical reconnaissance will be carried out
covering all potential damsites and reservoirs within the reaches
of the Susitna River under study.This activity will include
overflights supported by helicopter of the valley and ground
reconnaissance by senior personnel.The purposes of
reconnaissance are several.Stratigraphic and structural
relationships and potential geologic hazards reported previously
by others will be reviewed and confirmed.The reconnaisssance
will extend into areas not reported previously to obtain similar
geologic data for additional sites under consideration.
Reconnaissance is a means for quickly acquiring a geotechnical
overview of areas of interest to fix attention on more specific
areas requiring detailed inspection.As such,~t will be used to
screen damsites proposed from map studies,for preliminary
location of sources of construction materials,for initial field
identification of geologic hazards within potential reservoirs,
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -14-
...
for initial appraisal of access road and transmission line routes
and for initial fault and seismicity field investigations,all of
which are described in more detail below.
Reconnaissance will be carried out at various times during
Phase I.It is planned that an initial reconnaissance would be
made during March and April,1980,when access with helicopters
and possibly ground vehicles is permitted and the rivers are
frozen.Geologic mapping of rock outcrops along the river banks
will be facilitated by working on the river ice while the river
is at its lowest seasonal levels and exposure of outcrops is at a
maximum.Reconnaissance will be used after the snow cover has
gone in conjunction with the other geotechnical field activities
mentioned above.It is recognized that the optimum time for
reconnaissance activity is during the early summer before trees
and brush leaf out.
Damsite Investigations
Phase I site investigations by Harza will be surficial in
scope and will consist mainly of geologic mapping and
determination of potential sources of construction materials.
These activities will be used as part of the screening process of
potential sites and .for site evaluation to aid in planning
studies and preliminary layout of structures at selected sites.
Geologic mapping will be done in greater detai~for sites
selected as part of the basin development,but not in the detail
and with the precision which will be required later for
feasibility investigations.
Initial site mapping will be carried out during March
-April of 1980 while the lower river banks are accessible from
the ice as a followup to the initial reconnaissance.Mapping of
areas higher on the valley wall will be done when the snow cover
has disappeared.The considerable work done previously at the
Watana and Devil Canyon sites by the USBR and the USCE and
reported by these agencies would be helpful in accelerating
surficial investigations at those sites.Other possible sites,
including Vee site and Denali site,will require more detailed
attention during Phase I.
The geologic features which will be particularly noted are
those significant to geotechnical evaluation of the sites bearing
on type of dam,arrangement of structures,foundation conditions,
foundation treatment,potential for underground powerhouse
facilities,potential geologic hazards,and location of suitable
rock quarries and borrow areas for pervious and impervious fill
materials.Features which will be noted include topography,
11-100 8 Sept.1919 -15-
rock types and areal and stratigraphic relations of rock units,
rock quality,distribution and type of overburden cover,types
and structural relationships of bedrock discontinuities.These
discontinuities are the bedding planes,joints,fractures,faults
and shear zones.Evidence of unstable rock or overburden masses,
surficial evidence of permafrost,morphological and surficial
evidence of deposits of natural gravels,sands,and clay-silt and
sites auspicious for rock quarries will be noted.
Reservoir Investigations
Geological reconnaissance of potential reservoir sites
coupled with more detailed inspection of selected reservoir slope
areas will be carried out.The primary need 1s to define areas
of potential massive slope failure which could occur so as to
create a wave damaging to a dam or auxilliary structure.This
will require generalized mapping of bedrock,overburden,and
unconsolidated sediments,their distributuion and structural
relationships.Bedrock features facilitating slides,such as
faults,shear zones and close jointing,under changed hydrologic
or seismic condition will be evaluated.Similar attention will
be given to areas of unconsolidated sediments or glacial
overburden,particularly where thawing of ground ice or
saturation under reservoir conditions might weaken the soil mass
thus increasing the sliding potential with or without seismic
affects.
Previous investigations of the Susitna Basin and our recent
overflight of the Basin have noted evidence of past slides and
potential areas of future slides.These areas will be included
in our study.Any potential slide area deemed a potential
geologic hazard will be earmarked for special investigation
during Phase II.
Seismicity and Fault Studies
An extensive regional study of faults and seismic risk will
be initiated in this phase to augment previous studies of the
region.Emphasis would be placed on location of major and
related minor faulting and their proximity and potential hazard
to the sites under preliminary investigation.The fault studies
will be continued during the sUbsequent feasibility phase.
A fault and seismicity study of the Basin will be initiated
also during this phase incorporating all available studies and
data recorded to date.Ground surveys and low altitude flights
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -16-
...
will be used for studying and identifying geologic structural
features such as lineaments and faults and evidence of slumping,
landslides,offsets of landforms,and escarpments.This aspect
of the study is of great significance because the Susitna River
Basin lies within a highly seismic area.Faults of regional
significance have been identified and some related smaller faults
have been inferred.The potential for activity on any of these
faults during the life of the project must be evaluated.The
detailed discussion of the attendant tasks is included in
Volume IV as prepared by WCC.
Evaluation of Alternative Sites
The information gathered during the previously discussed
activities will be evaluated,summarized and used in preparing
designs and project layouts for various alternative sites.This
will include preliminary plans of dam and spillway,powerhouse,
switchyard and diversion features;and location of the
transmission line corridor and access roads.The choice for the
type of dam for a site will be dictated by the foundation and the
topographic conditions,height of the dam,seismic exposure and
seismic risk,and the availability of construction materials and
environmental constraints.Dam sections and their relative
merits will be studied for concrete dams (arch or gravity),
rockfill/earthfill dams,and concrete-faced rockfill dams.
Climatic factors for construction and maintenance of a
powerhouse,the presence of steep-walled canyons with rockfill
and slide potential,and the seismic activity of the region all
favor an underground powerhouse.This aspect will be evaluated
for each site considering specific site conditions.
Construction material requirements will be estimated for
various designs considered for each potential site and the
estimates will be compared with available construction material
on or near the site.This information will be used in preparing
cost estimates and evaluation of project economic feasibility.
Close cooperation between various disciplines will be maintained
to develop optimum schemes that take into consideration,in
addition to geotechnical concerns,factors such as climatic
restraints on construction activity,environmental aspects
related to the river ~asin,and ecological considerations.
Alternative sites will be evaluated for their relative
technical and economic merits.Concepts of staged development
versus initial full height development will be evaluated for each
site.This information will be combined with the power,
hydrologic,hydraulic and planning considerations.Preferred
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -17-
...
sites will be identified that are optimum for both technical and
cost consideration and that are compatible with overall Susitna
Basin development concepts.A candidate'site will be selected
and presented to the APA for their consideration for Phase II
studies.
Reconnaissance for Project Access Roads and Transmission Line
Project roads will be required for construction and
permanent access to the sites.Routes for construction of all
weather roads will be chosen from maps and airphotos.The
possible routes will be geologically mapped in enough detail to
determine problems of excavation,existing and potential
landslides,and other geologic and environmental hazards.
Drainage requirements and susceptibility to blockage by snow
avalanches will be incorporated in the study.Optimum routes
will be selected.
Several bridges are required for access to the proposed
Watana damsite.The foundations are assumed to be on bedrock
which is exposed along the river banks.Geologic mapping,and
some exploration and sampling may be required during design
studies to confirm foundation conditions and sources for
construction materials in the vicinity of the bridges.
Selection of preferred and alternate routes for the
transmission line will be studied.A field reconnaissance survey
will be undertaken to evaluate the geologic hazards such as poor
foundation conditions,and for potential and existing slide
masses.These considerations will be integrated with
environmental factors in route selection.
Planning of Feasibility Stage Investigation Program
A feasibility level investigation program will be planned
for the site designated for the initial development.This
program will be directed towards investigations of foundation
conditions,construction materials,thermal regime,existence and
distribution of permafrost and depth of permafrost table and
active layers.We will be assisted by a specialist in frozen
ground engineering for developing this program.The program will
be developed within the guidelines established by the authorities
having jurisdiction over the site area,such as the Bureau of
Land Managment or other agency,and it will be submitted for
agency approvals.The program will also include instrumentation
to ,obtain information on ambient ground temperatures,subsurface
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -18-
...
...
temperatures,water table depth and fluctuations in ground water
level.A general description of the program is presented under
Feasibility Studies.The specific details of this program will
be dictated by the site conditions and the final program may
differ from that envisioned at this time.
Planning of Feasibility Studies
The results of the Basin Planning Study will lead to a
recommendation for a candidate site and to some extent the type
of dam (rockfill,earthfill,concrete),and the concepts for the
powerhouse (surface or underground).On this basis,a
feasibility level studies program will be planned.This program
will include the type of studies to be performed (such as slope
stability,seepage,and rock mechanics),the level of
sophistication required (simplified analyses or finite element
analysis),and the data required for these studies.This
identification will permit timely collection of the necessary
geotechnical data.A general description of the studies that
might be performed is discussed under Feasibility Studies.The
scope of each study will be determined by the site conditions,
design philosophy,and the requirements for licensing.The
planning of permafrost studies will be done with the assistance
of a specialist in frozen soil mechanics to assure the
completness and reasonable scope of the program •
POWER MARKET STUDIES
Forecasts of future requirements for electric power and
energy will provide the basic framework within which the
alternative sources of generation including the Upper Susitna
project will be compared.This aspect of the need for Susitna
generation or an alternative source has received and is expected
to receive considerable public comment.Our approach to the
Susitna project is to select an initial project of appropriate
size for the load to be met,while preserving the long term
development potential of the river.The power market studies,
for this purpose,will consist of analysis of historical data,
projection of future demand and ranges of demand,and detailed
analyses of the market area,its constituent utilities,their
generation and transmission facilities,and their plans for
expansion of facilities.
A study of existing data and previous forecasts will be
performed to provide a better understanding of the historical
trends and projected future power demand of the Cook Inlet and
...11-100 8 Sept.1979 -19-
Fairbanks areas,to analyze and to project a high,low,and most
probable power and energy demand and corresponding level
patterns.Harza will present,and discuss with the APA,
parameters that may have a significant influence on the
projections and on the determination of the most probable
forecast.Contacts and meetings will be held with electric
utilities,consumer groups,government agencies,and other
interest groups to obtain data,and to determine potential
benefits and risks to them.In addition to the Cook Inlet and
Fairbanks power market areas the Glennallen-Valdez area will also
be analyzed,and interconnections between these three power
market areas will be evaluated.
Data Collection and Interviews
A Resource Economist and a Sociologist will collect the
information readily available and will survey broadly
representative samples of larger consumer groups.They will
gather the pertinent reports and projections published by
government agencies and other organizations on the energy demand
and supply in the market areas.Discussions with representatives
from the electric utilities serving the market areas will provide
insights on past,actual,and future electricity uses.Contacts
will also be made with the National Defense installations,and
the self-supplied industries to obtain power market data and
forecasts.In addition,the socio-economic studies and the
pUblic information meetings will provide insights to the needs
and desires of the population.
Among the areas of inquiry will be th~trend of economic activity
and population growth in the Railbelt area,economic and
conservation trends affecting traditional uses of electric power,
trends in the competition between electric power and other energy
sources for uses such as water and space heating,and plans for
industrial and commercial activity including new energy intensive
industries.
Market Area Description
Harza will discribe the potential market area that could be
served by the Susitna Project.Due to its central position
between the Fairbanks and Anchorage areas,the Susitna Project
will be planned to provide electric energy to the South Central
Railbelt area.In addition,possible interconnections with the
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -20-
Glennallen-Valdez area will be analyzed.The description will
include a presentation of the historical and future growth in
population,business,services and industry for each major market
area:
Anchorage -Cook Inlet Area
Fairbanks -Tanana Valley Area
Glennalen -Valdez Area
Existing and future developments in coal,oil and gas production
and transportation,related industries,agriculture,tourism,and
any other major economic activity will also be presented.
Utility and Service Area Descriptions
A description of each electric utility in the Railbelt area
and in the Glennalen-Valdez area will be prepared as a basis for
the transmission,economic,financial,and institutional studies.
These utilities and agencies are:
Alaska Power Administration
Anchorage Municipal Light &Power
Chugach Electric Association
Matanuska Electric Association
Homer Electric Association
Seward Electric System
Fairbanks Municipal Utility System
Golden Valley Electric Association
Copper Valley Electric Association.
The service area of each of these utilities will be identified,
and interconnections between these systems will be described.
Present plans of these utilities for possible future expansion of
generation and transmission facilities,with or without the
Susitna Project,will be analyzed.In addition,the National
Defense power systems and industrial self-generation power
systems will be described.
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -21-
Inventory of Generation and Transmission Systems
An inventory of the existing generation capacity will be made to
evaluate the market area's existing power system,with a
description of the capacity and energy generated by electric
utilities,National Defense systems,and industrial systems
within each area.An evaluation will also be made of the
eXisting facilities in the small villages and remote rural areas
within the market area.The plant inventory data will include
the plant and unit locations,owner,capacity and production
data,age and expected service life,type and source of fuel and
heat rate.These and similar data for planned and alternative
additions will be used in the economic dispatch studies.
A map of the existing main transmission lines (69 KV and
higher)together with the additions planned by the utilities will
be presented to evaluate the possible connections between the
three market areas.The detailed inventory data on transmission
facilities will be obtained by the transmission engineers and
will be sufficient for use in the transmission system studies.
Analysis of Load Data
Analysis of historic data and detailed examination of power
statistics for the last decade will identify trends and changes
in use patterns related to economic develop@ent,population
growth,and conservation measures.Monthly peak loads,energy
demands,and load factors will be analyzed.Summary tables will
be prepared presenting the historical and existing power and
energy demand for each of the three power market areas.Other
tables will present energy consumption by consumer categories:
Residential,commercial,industrial,pUblic,municipal,and
military.Variations in growth patterns among energy sectors and
per capita energy consumption will be analyzed.An attempt will
be made to isolate changes in growth trends such as that due to
increased use of electric space heating and to evaluate the
prospects for continuation or revision of such trends.
Load Forecasts
Forecasts of power and energy demand and load patterns will
be made by utility service area for use in the power system
expansion,economic and financial studies.Forecasts for the
years 1990,2000,and 2010 will be made for each power market
area (Anchorage,Fairbanks,and Glennalen-Valdez),and broken
down into demands from electric utilities,national defense,and
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -22-
self-supplied industries.The forecasts will be made at three
levels (high,most probable and low estimates)to reflect
various hypotheses of economic development in the Railbelt area,
conservation measures,and alternatives to electric power for
specific uses.
The forecasts made by the utilities and other agencies will
be reviewed and used as a basis to develop the range of growth in
demand.The historic energy consumption growth rates by consumer
categories will be extrapolated for future years on the basis of
projected increase in intensity of use and population growth.
Future residential energy forecasts will also be determined based
on the socio-economic studies,and a survey of selected
households in each utility service area.Commercial and
industrial energy use projections will be based on interviews
with present customers and forecasts of future levels of economic
activity.Direct mail surveys of samples of electric customers
of all categories may be undertaken with the cooperation of the
electric utilities to clarify questions concerning electric heat
and other aspects.
Forecasts of energy for the National Defense and
self-supplied industries will be developed from historical data
and conditions,consultations with knowledgeable people in the
army,government and industry;and from reports on future
developments.
Historical trends in load factors
economic activities will be used to forecast
the previously determined energy demands.
adjusted to future
peak demands from
Estimation of future load projections will consist of two
stages.First,historical consumer demand for electric power
will be studied in the Anchorage,Fairbanks,and
Glennallen-Valley power market areas.In each area a survey of
consumption patterns will identify significant social and
economic sectors which are broadly representative or larger
consumer groups in the area.In addition,surveys or sUbsamples
utilizing a stratified-cluster sampling method and structured
interview techniques will address current energy consumption
patterns,current expectations of future energy consumption
patterns without the project,and propens~ty to consume
electrical energy in the future with the project.The result of
these surveys will be a verification and update of current
consumption patterns related to energy use.
The second stage of estimating future load demands will be
standard population projections for the market region utilizing
cohort-survival projection techniques.Secondary data available
from the US Department of Commerce,Bureau of Census,together
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -23-
with State of Alaska vital statistics (mortal~ty rate,birth
rate,fertility rate,infant death rate)and data on net
immigration into Alaska will be sufficient.Tnis will give a
good idea of the expected population increase,which will permit
projection of high,most likely and low load demands for all
groups of certain broad consumption patterns.
In order to verify this evaluation of future load demands,
the data on propensity to consume for the sample groups will be
matched to the broad sectors of the population which they
represent and any anomolies will be adjusted.
In this way,load projections can be verified for population
sectors,based on our knowledge of the sector propensity to
consume and the assumed growth of that sector.This two stage
approach will provide not only standardly derived load demand
estimates,but also useful data regarding current and expected
use patterns for the public information and participation
process.
Sensitivity Analysis of Forecasts
Projections of future electric energy consumption are
sensitive to many factors such as National and Regional economic
activity,population growth,life-style changes,competition of
electricity with other forms of energy,price and technological
changes,governmental policies,restriction on fuels,etc.Harza
will discuss the parameters that may have a significant influence
on the projections,and on the determination of the most probable
forecast.The sensitivity of demand to population growth and
economic growth will be discussed.The influence of legislative
and regulatory policies will be analyzed.These policies may
influence economic growth as well as fuel prices,and will be
taken into account in the projections.Load management will be
discussed and its possible influence on power demand and land
factors will be outlined.
Develop Seasonal Load ReqUirements
Estimates of average monthly distribution of energy and
power demand will be developed to relate reservoir operations and
hydroelectric output to the electric load.Historical monthly
load and energy for each power market area will be analyzed.
Projections will be made taking in consideration the range of
future power requirements,estimates of seasonal activity,and
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -24-
other factors that could affect the shape of the annual
distribution curve.
Develop Load Duration Curves
Future annual,monthly,and weekly load duration curves will
be developed as adjusted from the existing load curves to account
for changing patterns of energy use.Harza will use the computer
program that it has developed for the Corps of Engineers in the
National Hydro Study.Representative weekly load curves during
the wet and dry seasons will be analyzed.This program analyzes
the hourly loads during any week,adjusts,the shape of the load
duration curve,and gives the energy needs for any increment in
peak demand.Load duration curves for calendar months or
semi-monthly periods as needed for the economic dispatch studies
will be developed from the weekly analyses.The Gourly load data
from the major electric utilities will be analyzed with respect
to coincidence of their load patterns.
ALTERNATIVE SOURCES OF GENERATION
Alternative sources of generation to meet the projected
future electric power requirements will be identified and
evaluated,and the most favorable alternatives will be studied in
detail for use in the alternative power system expansion
programs.Harza plans to use the services of at least one and
probably two or more independent consultants in this item of
study to provide additional expertise and assure objectivity in
the treatment of non-hydro alternatives.
Identification of Alternative Sources
The identification of possible alternative sources of
generation and their charactistics will be based on existing
reports and data and additional investigations.Contacts and
meetings will be held with electric utilities,fuel suppliers,
governmental agencies,area residents,and environmental and
interest groups to identify the full range of generation modes
available,and to determine their potential risks and benefits.
The identified sources will include the conventional types of
generating plants existing in the area such as gas turbine,steam
turbine,diesel,nuclear and hydro;alternative conventional
fuels such as coal,oil,and gas;and also new sources such as
wind,solar,geothermal,pulp,and tide.The new technologies
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -25-
associated with coal fuel synthetics and energy storage systems
will also be reviewed and evaluated.In addition,the
possibilities and effects of energy conservation and load
management on peak demand will be identified and analyzed.Harza
has recently conducted similar studies for the Huntington
District U.S.Army Corps of Engineers on "Electric Power Demand
and Supply",November 1978;"Preliminary Power Analysis for
Sutton,Bluestone,and Summerville Projects",April 1979;and
"Alternatives for Peaking Power",May 1979.
Fuel Resources Availability and Costs
Estimates of future fuel availability and costs will be made
to insure the feasibility of thermal and nuclear alternatives.
Data will be gathered from previously published materials,and
various sources,such as Alaska Power Administration,Alaska
Division of Energy and Power Development,ISER-University of
Alaska,Federal Energy Regulatory Commission,and the U.S.Army
Corps of Engineers.If necessary,additional interviews will be
held with representatives of petroleum and coal companies in the
Railbelt area,and experts on oil,gas,coal,and nuclear fuel.
The level of detail required in the fuel study will be
established after a preliminary asse~sment or the probable
generation alternatives and their respective fuels.Should the
availability and cost of certain types of fuel such as natural
gas,coal or oil appear to be of major consequence to the
economic evaluation of the Susitna Project,or open to much
pUblic debate,a more detailed study of the availability and cost
of these fuels will be made.We propose to use a consultant such
as the Stanford Research Institute (SRI)to perfo~such studies.
Should the availablility and cost of certain fuel not be of
extraordinary importance the procedures normally employed for
feasibility level studies will be used,and Harza personnel will
perform the necessary studies.
Conventional Thermal Alternatives
Conventional thermal alternatives will be identified and
evaluated for the purposes of comparison with the Susitna
Project.The main advantages and drawbacks or each thermal
alternative will be described.Different aspects of power
supply,that is,cost effectiveness,environmental quality,and
assurance of adequate power supply will be rated for each
alternative.Special consideration will be given to the
environmental impacts:air,water,noise pollution,and any
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -26-
other related impact.We propose to employ Fluor Power Services
Corporation as consultant for these studies.By having an
independent specialist evaluate these alternatives and
participate in the development of the "without Susitna"system
expansion program,we believe impartiality will be assured and
the evaluations of the Susitna Project will better stand up to
pUblic scrutiny.
The studies would focus on the following types of locations
of thermal alternatives:
a)Fairbanks Area (Alaska Pipe Line Oil Supply Fuel,
and possibly gas pipeline fuel)Oil,Gas and
possibly Coal;
b)Anchorage (Local Gas Fields Supply Fuel)Gas,Coal
and possibly Oil;
c)Beluga &Healy Area (Low Btu and Sulfur Coal)
Minemouth Coal;
The study
following:
by Fluor Power Services will include the
1.0 Identify Alternative Sources of Generation
1.1 Gas-Fired Plants
1.2 Oil-Fired Plants
1.3 Coal-Fired Plants
1.4 Combined Cycle Plants
1.5 Nuclear
2.0 Based on Power Market Projection,identify:
2.1 Numbers of Generating Plants (300 to 600 MW,
made up of unit sizes of 100 to 150 MW)
2.2 Location of Plants
2.3 Type of Fuel to be Considered
2.4 Transmission Requirements
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -27-
3.0 Identify Environmental Criteria for Proposed Sites:
3.1 Cooling Water Source
3.2 Particulate Emissions
3.3 SO,NO and others
3.4 Noise
4.0 Develop Conceptual Cost Estimates for Power Plant,Site,
Transmission and other Site-Related Items.
Costs of Conventional Alternatives
The evaluation of thermal plant alternatives will include
estimates of the following based on the Fluor Power Services
Study:heat rates and fuel costs;added fuel transportation and
installation cost;construction cost of the plants;operation and
maintenance costs;service life and replacement cost;and
transmission cost.
The estimates will be made of a preliminary level in Phase I
and in more detail for the selected alternative 1n Phase II.
Site arrangement and preliminary general arrangement drawings of
the selected alternative will be made in,Phase II.
Alternative Hydro Projects
One of the basic premises of APA's program of development of
the Upper Susitna is that it represents the most economical
hydroelectric resource for early development to serve the
Railbelt area.We think this conclusion probably 1s valid and
supportable but consider it necessary to establish the basis for
the selection of Susitna in a form more suitable for public
discussion and FERC proceedings.
We propose to review the existing 1nventories of
hydroelectric projects in Alaska,select those within any
reasonable distance of the Anchorage and Fairbanks areas,and
update those projects for presentation on a common basis.This
work will be done,to the extent possible,from the published and
unpublished studies by the Bureau of Reclamation,Alaska Power
Administration,Corps of Engineers,Alaska Div1sion of Energy,
Alaska Power Authority,and possibly other agencies.It appears
that many of the inventoried sites have been studied only at the
reconnaissance level.The available site data,preliminary
layouts and project data,and preliminary estimates of production
11-100 8 Sep~.1979 -28-
and cost will be assembled and the cost estimates will be updated
by cost indexing methods for use in preliminary evaluations.For
each single large capacity site the evaluation will compare the
potential generating capacity,the unit cost of power and energy,
the transmission facilities,and the environmental impacts.
Combinations of smaller capacity sites will be evaluated by
geographic areas and river basins.Special consideration will
also be given to small sites which are available and can satisfy
a portion of the power market demand.The sites evaluated on the
basis of this updated inventory will be described in such detail
as the basic sources permit,evaluated in relation to the
projected power market requirements and eXisting environmental
and land use restrictions,and compared with the Upper Susitna
projects on the basis of economic and other aspects.
The results of this study will be discussed with APA,and
any necessary extensions of the work will be agreed upon.It may
be that the available data and studies are not surricient in some
cases or that the inventory appears to be incomplete in some
areas.In that event the identification of sites and preliminary
comparisons could be carried forward by map reconnaissance,
parametric estimate,and preliminary screening methods similar to
those described below under the Phase I studies or the Susitna
hydroelectric project and basin plan.
Other Alternative Sources
To complete the evaluation of alternative sources,an
analysis of the new sources such as wind,solar,geothermal,pulp
and tide will be performed.Harza will review the latest
technical developments as well as the pilot projects that have
been developed in the Railbelt area.Various concepts or wind
energy installations will be considered.The investigations and
data available for an evaluation of solar and geothermal energy
will be reviewed.The different concepts that have been
developed for the Cook Inlet Tidal potential will-be analyzed.
Comparison of Alternative Sources
A selection of the most favorable alternatives to meet the
power requirements will be made in Phase I to evaluate the
economic and financial feasibility of the Susitna Project.The
selected alternative will be evaluated in greater depth in
Phase II.Tables will summarize the results of the alternatives
evaluations.
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -29-
RESERVOIR OPERATION AND SYSTEM GENERATION COST STUDIES
The optimization and selection of reservoir capacities,
generating capacities and installation schedules and the economic
and financial analyses of the Upper Susitna project in comparison
with alternative generation expansion plans will require detailed
studies of the operation of each alternative,under various
conditions and in different time periods.The results will show
the capacity and energy available from the project,the amounts
useable in the system,the capacity and energy utilized from
other plants in the system,the system generation costs,and
measures of the adequacy of system reserves for each of a
selected series of years.These series of generation costs
together with the corresponding construction costs and operation
and maintenance costs,will be the input to the economic and
financial analyses of the various alternatives.
The operation and generation cost studies will utilize,to a
large extent,methodologies and computer programs which now exist
or are in the process of development for similar project
assignments.These available tools will be assembled during
Phase I into a methodology and package of programs specifically
designed to meet the needs of the Alaska Power Authority in
addressing the economic,financial,and institutional situation
in the South-Central Railbelt Area.Some of the principal
features of the approach are discussed below.
Hydroelectric Project Operation
The Upper Susitna hydroelectric project will consist,at
different times,of one or more main stream reservoir projects,
possibly an off-stream storage or pumped storage project,and
possibly a diversion of winter season stream flows from outside
the Upper Susitna basin.The operation studies will be of the
sequential type.The streamflow sequences for each damsite will
be long-term stochastic sequences as discussed in the section on
hydrology.The initial studies,however,may use the historical
sequences of approximately 28 years which are now available.The
average net rates of reservoir operation will be estimated for
each calendar month.For each hydroelectric project to be
included in a Susitna alternative the input data will include the
reservoir area and volume curves,tailwater curves for natural
conditions and with downstream reservoirs if appropriate,normal
reservoir elevation,drawdown limit or other operating rules,
installed capacity and rated head,number of units,preliminary
plant performance curves,minimum release requirements,as well
as the streamflow sequence for the damsite.Where two or more
Susitna reservoirs are included in an alternative,the inflow
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -30-
sequences for the downstream reservoirs will be adjusted for the
evaporation and flow regulation effects of the upstream projects.
A maintenance schedule will be incorporated to account for
planned outage requirements.Forced outage rates will be used to
de-rate each plant for use in the economic dispatch study.A
separate probability-type analysis of reserve requirements is
discussed in a later section.Transmission loss factors for each
plant will be used to estimate the generation delivered at load
centers.
The hydroelectric generation study can be used in several
ways in the course of the study,both separately and as part of
the economic dispatch study.The operation program can be used
to estimate the firm and secondary energy and dependable capacity
on a monthly basis for a project or group of projects with
specified installed capacities and reservoir operating limits.
The production can be specified on a uniform basis ("maximum
continuous power")or the desired production can be specified on
a monthly basis,to reflect the seasonal requirements of the
Railbelt system.The operation program also can be used to
develop operating rule curves for the reservoir or reservoirs,in
which the objectives typically would be to maximize winter season
energy and smooth the month to month variations in the production
of secondary energy.Both of these approaches will provide
operating rules to be used in the economic dispatch study.A
complete trial,using a given set of reservoirs,plant
capacities,and operating rules and the full streamflow sequence,
will provide sequential monthly results and analyzed results
including long term averages and duration curve analyses,
annually and by calendar months,of firm and secondary energy,
plant capability,plant discharges,and spills.
In the definitive project studies the hydro operation
program will be used as part of the economic dispatch program.A
given Upper Susitna alternative will be operated through the full
streamflow sequence to meet the electric loads of a given year in
combination with the other generating plants as described below,
and the results will include average costs of generation and a
duration curve analysis of operating costs by months.
Economic Dispatch Studies
The economic dispatch study will provide estimated system
generation costs and other operating data for the electric power
system and its major sub-systems.Several alternative expansion
programs will be developed as discussed in the section on
economic analyses,each expansion program consisting of a
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -31-
schedule of plant additions and transmission line additions to
meet the growth needs of the system for a period between a common
beginning and a common ending date.The common expansion period
might be approximately 10 years,to allow for full utilization of
a series of projects in the Upper Susitna basin;but the required
period will be determined during the study on the basis of the
load projections and the size of the identified resources.
The principal input data will include projected system loads
and load duration curves;generating plant data for the existing
and proposed thermal plants,Upper Susitna hydro plants,other
existing hydroelectric plants,and other proposed hydro plants if
necessary;and estimated data on fuel costs and other operating
costs.The typical use will be to test the operation of one
expansion alternative during one year of projected system loads,
using the full Susitna hydrologic sequence for alternatives which
include Susitna projects.The output would include the expected
average generation costs to meet the load for that year on an
annual basis and,for possible further analyses,on a generation
cost-duration curve basis by calendar month.There would be an
indication of shortage if the available plants were insufficient
to meet the load in any month of the hydrologic sequence.The
average generation and operating cost data for the year will be
input to the economic and financial analyses.The output also
will include the generation for the plants or each operating
utility and the corresponding cost of fuel.
The input data for each thermal plant in the system will
include its ownership,capacity,number and type or units,heat
rate or heat rate curves,type of fuel,cost of fuel,maintenance
schedule,forced outage rates,transmission loss factor,and
operating rules.The data for existing hydro plants outside the
Susitna basin will include the capacity,average generation by
calendar month,maintenance schedule,forced outage rate,and
transmission loss factor.
The system load data will be represented by an annual peak
load and monthly load duration curves in percent or load-percent
of time format.The load data can be,if desired,divided into
two major components,for the Fairbanks and Cook Inlet areas,to
facilitate checking the average transmission line loadings and
application of operating rules,if any,such as the minimum
percentage of load in each area which must be self-supplied.
This approach,which assumes that the loads in the Railbelt area
follow a largely coincident pattern,will be confirmed or
modified by the detailed power market studies.
The economic dispatch program will rank the available
non-hydro plants in order of generation cost per kWh and dispatch
all available plants so as to meet the load under the load
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -32-
duration curve at the lowest total generation cost.This will
include the maximum use of the available hydroelectric capacity
and energy,subject to the various operating rules.The existing
hydro generation will be used as available,and the Upper Susitna
generation will be used to the limit of the remaining system
requirements.
Institutlonal Aspects
The
analysis
utility
impacts.
methods discussed above will provide the data for the
of the net generation or purchases by each operating
in each year as part of the analysis of financial
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -33-
..-
HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT STUDIES
Introduction
The studies described in this section consist of the
planning and evaluation of project structures and equipment,
evaluation of alternative projects and combinations of projects,
and selection of the basin plan of development and the initial
project.The closely related items of construction costs and
programs and economic analyses are described separately.
The Phase I project studies are divided into four principal
steps.A reconnaissance study will consist of site
identification and preliminary cost and performance screening,
using maps and other data available at the beginning of Phase I
in January 1980.This will result in the identification,by the
end of April,of a selected group of alternative sites for which
new aerial photographs and maps will be made as discussed in the
section on Photography,Surveying,and Mapping.The identified
sites will be studied in more detail,and cost-height and
cost-capacity curves will be prepared for each site based on the
new maps and site investigations.Reservoir operation studies
will be made to estimate the performance of various projects and
groups of projects.The alternative basin plans will be studied
using various combinations of projects,reservoir elevations,and
installed capacities.These will be evaluated as described in
the section on economic analysis and a plan of development,order
of development,and an initial project will be selected for study
at the feasibility level.
Data Collection and Review
A substantial amount of information has been assembled and
evaluated in a preliminary manner during the preparation of the
Plan of Study and in connection with Harza's previous discussions
with APA relative to the Susitna project.These references,
particularly the Corps of Engineers study and supporting
materials,and all additional pertinent information will be
reviewed with respect to site identification,site
characteristics,types of structures,and other aspects of
project planning.
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -34-
-
Reconnaissance Studies
Map Reconnaissance
Several damsites have been identified and studied by the
Corps and others.The objectives of the map reconnaissance will
be to acquaint ourselves with these identified sites in detail,
identify additional possibilities along the main stream of the
river,identify possible sites for off-channel storage on
tributaries or for pumped storage projects using the plateaus
adjacent to the river,and evaluate the possibilities of
transbasin diversion of winter flow into the Upper Susitna.The
emphasis will be on the main stream projects,particularly
variations of the previously identified sites and the addition of
one or more sites for small initial projects such as those
described in "Study Approach",Volume 1.A principal area of
interest will be in the reach of river midway between the Devil
Canyon and Watana sites,or between river elevations of
approximately 1100 to 1300.A project in this area would fit in
well with a plan of development incorporating two small dams
downstream from Watana.We believe the site con~itions in this
reach generally are favorable for a concrete dam and associated
structures to create 300 to 400 feet of head.The identification
and screening process,however,will cover the rull reach of
river between Portage Creek and EI.2400,which is above the
expected upper limit of the Vee Canyon project.Another
principal area of attention will be the previously identified
Watana site,with emphasis on possible construction in stages as
discussed below.
The Denali project site will not be an area of study for
project planning purposes.We consider that the technical and
environmental problems associated with this project,as
identified in previous stUdies,effectively preclude its
inclusion at this time in any definite plan of development for
the basin.
The reconnaissance studies will result in a revised list of
sites,a range of possible elevations at each site,and
preliminary formulations of plans of development based on these
identifications.
Preliminary Screening
The preliminary evaluation or screening or alternative
projects and plans of development will consist or preliminary
cost estimates;preparation of construction cost curves such as
cost of reservoirs versus normal reservoir elevation,cost of
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -35-
power generating facilities versus capacity and head,and cost of
transmission facilities of various lengths and capacities;
reservoir operation studies as described below;and evaluation of
alternative projects and groups of projects on preliminary bases
such as the cost per kilowatt of dependable capacity and cost per
kilowatt-hour of production.
The project layouts and costs estimates will be based on the
existing USGS quadrangle maps at 1:63,360 and the larger scale
damsite maps where available,such as for sections of the Devil
Canyon and Watana sites.Desireably,as discussed under
Photography,Surveying,and Mapping,it may be practical to
prepare larger scale maps (reconnaissance maps)of the entire
river valley from eXisting NASA photos.
The layouts on which the cost curves are based will be of a
preliminary.type but will take full advantage of the available
information and previous studies of each site.Different types
of dam,spillway,and project arrangement will be considered at
each site and the possibility of construction of the dam in two
or more stages will be evaluated on a conceptual basis at
selected sites.Underground powerstations will most likely be
used in all cases.Spillway and diversion floods will be based
on the Corps studies.Cost estimates will be based on all
available information.The cost estimates prepared for screening
purposes,however,will be for the limited purpose of comparison
between alternative hydroelectric projects.
The hydrologic sequence for the screening process will be
the existing 28 year historical sequence of monthly streamflow,
with adjustment as necessary for intervening damsites.The
reservoir operations will be studied using an existing
multi-reservoir operation program.The reservoir operating rules
will be simple,calling basically for maximum continuous power
and,to a limited extent,leveling the production of secondary
energy by maximum generation from the beginning of the spring
refill period.The program will prOVide the operating results on
a monthly basis and in summary form,assign estimated project
costs by interpolation and assembly of the cost curve estimates,
and summarize the cost and performance results for the single
project or multiple project group under consideration.The
procedure is designed to facilitate trials of alternative
combinations of projects,reservoir elevations,reservoir
drawdown limits,and installed capacities.
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -36-
Identification of Projects for Study
The reconnaissance studies and screening process will result
in the identification of several project sites which would,at
various levels of development,form part or two or more
alternative plans of development.One pair of sites will be the
Devil Canyon and Watana sites as identified by the Corps.A
third site will be in the reach between tbese sites and
identified for the second low dam in an alternative plan.The
lower reach of Devil Canyon may be identified for study of a low
dam with reservoir at El 1150 to El.1250.The Vee Canyon and
Kaiser sites,and others to be considered in the reconnaissance
studies,mayor may not be identified for further study.We
estimate that approximately 6 sites will be identified for new
aerial photographs and preparation of new topographic maps.The
reconnaissance studies will be essentially completed during the
period from January through April using off~ce methods and
information currently available,and reconnaissance maps.In the
latter part of April or as soon as practicable a general field
reconnaissance will be made.The selection of areas for
photography,mapping,and detailed site reconnaissance will be
made,with the concurrence of APA,by approximately May 1.The
larger scale river valley photos and maps will be initiated at
the same time.It is possible that additional sites may be
identified after these photos and maps are received,but we
expect no major additions to the conceptual plans following the
reconnaissance studies.
Identified Project Studies
The sites identified by the foregoing procedure will be
studied at the prefeasibility level during the period from May to
September 1980.The field investigations will begin as soon as
weather and access conditions permit.The layouts and cost
estimates will begin in May but this effort will be concentrated
in July,August,and September after the delivery of the new
topographic maps of the sites and the river valley in the latter
part of June.The results of the Phase I studies of geology,
soils and materials,seismicity,hydrology,power market,and
basic cost information will become available during this period
and incorporated into the prefeasibility study.The number of
individual project layouts to be evaluated will depend largely on
the number of elevations necessary for the several alternative
basin plans and the types of dam considered suitable at each
site.The principal aspects of the project studies are as
follows.
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -37-
Access and Relocations
Existing roads,bridges,utilities,and other important
facilities in the study area will be inventoried using the best
available maps and data and field reconn~issance.Those
facilities,if any,which would be affected by construction of
the projects will be identified,and preliminary estimates of the
cost of the necessary relocations will be prepared for use in the
selection of alternatives.Preliminary studies will be made of
the routes and of permanent access to each site.
Dams and Reservoirs
New area and volume curves for each ~eservoir will be
prepared from the new river valley maps.
In general the sites now identified are considered
technically suitable for fill dams,gravity or g~avity arch dams,
and in some cases thin arch dams.We would expect the economic
choice to be in favor of the concrete dams at lower elevations,
largely because of diversion and spillway excavation costs of
fill dam schemes,and in favor of fill dams at higher elevation,
sUbject to the availability of suitable construction materials.
In each case the limited construction seasons and high steamflows
during the summer months require careful consideration.
Fill Dam Schemes
Fill dam layouts at the prefeasibility st~ge will be based
on the current information from the geotechnical studies
including excavation criteria and availability of construction
materials.An adequate supply of impervious fill especially for
a high Watana dam,is forseen as a potential p~oblem.The most
likely type of spillway will be a conventional gated chute
spillway,in one abutment of the dam,terminating in a flip
bucket and plunge pool.The estimates will reflect a preliminary
judgement as to the amount of excavation useable in the dam and
the methods and timing affecting that utilization.
Concrete Dam Schemes
Gravity dam,thin arch,and gravity arch schemes will be
considered as appropriate.In most cases it will be economical
to place the spillway for a concrete dam in the main dam and
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -38-
river channel.The gravity and gravity arch dams could have
either flip bucket or stilling basin energy dissipators.The
thin arch could have an overflow spillway with plunge pool,
possibly requiring a low dam to maintain the plunge pool
elevation,or a separate chute spillway.The concept of staged
construction of the concrete dams will be studied in adequate
detail for those applications considered to be of importance to a
basin plan.A concrete dam could be attractive at the Watana
site if the final elevation is somewhat lower than in the Corps
scheme and if it is constructed in stages compatible with load
requirements.Raising of the Guri dam and spillway in Venezuela,
now is progress in accordance with a Harza design,is an example
of this approach.
Arch Dam Studies
More specific studies of arch dam geometry and costs will be
made at the identified sites which appear to be technically
suitable for high arch dams,and one of these sites has been
suggested for the initial project.The choice of possible axes
will be studied by the geologists and planning engineers,and a
preliminary axis and range of elevations will be chosen.An
estimate of minimum depths of excavation for the foundations will
be made.Arch dam layouts will be made for these specific axes,
elevations,and expected excavated contours,with adjustments in
the excavations as required with consideration given to the rock
contours and jointing downstream from the darn.The shape and
thickness of the dam will be analyzed on a preliminary basis by
means of a crown-cantilever computer program,estimates of
concrete and excavation columns suitable for the purposes of
Phase I will be prepared,and sketches of the arch geometry will
be made for use in preparation of project schemes.
Diversion
Diversion flood peak inflows and volumes for selected return
periods at each dam site will be obtained from the hydrology
studies and used to develop preliminary diversion schemes for
selected levels of risk during construction of concrete or fill
dams.In general the concrete dam schemes probably will pass
peak diversion flows over or through the partially completed dam,
with resultant cost saVings.The situation with the fill dam is
different.Harza has designed a project,now successfully
completed,where excess wet season flows were passed over the
partially completed -and previously protected -fill.This was
done during one wet season,when the fill was not yet high enough
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -39-
to require energy dissipation provisions.In the special
circumstances of the Upper Susitna,however,such a procedure
would leave very little effective construction season for the
fill,and a more conservative approach would be required.
Powerstations and Water Conductors
Specific selections of generating units for the most likely
scheme at each site will be made and used in the preparation of
layouts and estimates for the underground powerstations.These
will be used to refine the powerstation cost curves for each
site,from the screening process,for further evaluation of
alternative installations and elevations in the selection of the
basin plan.
The power intakes and water conductors at this stage will be
treated on a more site-specific basis,using the larger scale
topography,general project arrangement,and additional knowledge
of site characteristics.
Operation Studies
Two types of reservoir operation studies will be made to
estimate the production of the identified projects and the
alternative basin plan.The initial studies will use a multiple
reservoir hydroelectric operation procedure,as described above
under "Preliminary Screening,"which gives full information on
the operation of the hydro projects.The final comparision of
basin development plans and initial projects,however,will
include estimates of the capacity and energy useable in the
Railbelt system in selected future years and the resulting
effects on system generation costs.These studies will make use
of a combined reservoir operation and system generation cost
methodology,which is described below under that beading.
Basin Development Plan
The alternative plans of hydroelectric development for the
Upper Susitna Basin will be evaluated on technical,economic,
financial and environmental bases and a plan of development best
adapted to the needs of the area and utilization or the resource
will be selected and described.The initial project in that plan
of development,which may be the first stage of a larger project,
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -40-
will be identified for study at the feasibility level in
Phase II.
TRANSMISSION SYSTEM
The transmission system studies in Phase I will provide
estimates of the design characteristics,stages or construction,
costs,and probable route corridors for several alternative
transmission systems developed to meet the needs of the
corresponding alternative power system expansion programs.
Data Collection and Review
All pertinent previous studies of the area transmission
systems,including the 1979 report on the Railbelt
Interconnection proposal for APA,and the transmission studies
proposal for the Corps Upper Susitna study by the Alaska Power
Administration will be reviewed in detail,together with the
available public and agency comments on these transmission plans.
Previous load forecasts
forecast adopted in the Power
establish the loads expected
system.
will be reviewed,and the load
Market Study will be used to
at each major substation on the
All reports and Alaskan and U.S.laws describing the
environment in areas affected by the transmission system will be
collected to determine applicable constraints.In addition,
current and past EPRI and DOC research reports on the effect of
extra high voltage (EHV)transmission lines on plant and animal
life will be utilized in the pertinent sections of the
feasibility report.
Preliminary Studies
Criteria
Criteria for the design and operation or transmission
systems in Alaska will be identified and discussed with APA and
the local utilities.
A set of basic system dynamic performance reliability
criteria will be used with approval of APA.These criteria will
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -41-
be used as a guide in the review of the reliability requirements
for the transmission system alternatives.
Transmission Routes
Receiving substation locations in the hnchorage -Cook
Inlet,Fairbanks -Golden Valley,and Glenallen-Valdez areas will
be established in cooperation with APA on the basis of existing
system configurations,load forecasts,and with the aid of
previous studies.
Preliminary routing-studies will be made,beginning with the
routes suggested in the Interconnection Study and the Alaska
Power Administration Study.
One or more common routes from each load center into the Upper
Susitna area and individual routes extending to the dam sites
will be identified for each alternative basin development plan.
The transmission engineers and environmental specialists will
conduct a joint study of methods of minimizing the environmental
impact of the transmission lines under the conditions of the
project area.
Transmission system characteristics for various routings
such as length,altitude,difficulty of terrain,reliability,
winter maintenance problems and special environmental problems
that may be encountered will be identified.hn analysis and
prediction will be made of possible radio,television and other
electromagnetic interferences that might occur because of the
operation of the transmission system.
Preliminary Estimates
Generalized cost and performance relationships will be
developed for the Upper Susitna transmi~sion lines for use in the
preliminary screening of plans of hydroelectric development.
Transmission System for Alternative Plans
The preliminary hydroelectric project studies will identify
approximately six sites for evaluation,at different levels of
installed capacity as part of several alternative basin'
development plans.An alternative transmission system plan,with
appropriate stages of development,will be prepared for each
basin development alternative.In each case a range of voltage
levels (for example,230 KV,345 KV,and 500 KV)will be
established in relation to the corresponding level of generation
and load.The line characteristics for the major alternatives
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -42-
-----------------------
will be tested for stability in accordance with estabilished
criteria.
Power flow calculations will be made to estioate how a power
system will react to a specified set of load and generation
conditions.Load flows for both normal and abnormal conditions
guide the determination of both transmission line and substation
requirements.Load flow studies will be made for a number of
selected cases among the transmission system alternatives.
Transmission line conductor sizes and configurations
determined by previous studies for the Alaska Power Authority
(APA)will be reviewed,and revised as necessary,for the basin
planning study.Normal and emergency current capacity will be
defined for the conductors used in the studies.
For each transmission system alternative,a calculation will
be made to estimate the annual transmission system losses.The
annual cost of these losses will be estimated based on system
average demand and energy.The cost of the losses will be
factored into the economic analysis of the overall plan.
The need for reactive compensation for each alternate
transmission network will be investigated,using the load flow
calculations and preliminary transient stability analysis.The
need for shunt reactors,series capacitors and static var
compensation will be established.
Cost Estimates
The construction and operating costs of the transmission
alternatives will be estimated on the basis of preliminary design
and quantity estimates and the cost of work under the conditions
of the project area.
For each alternative,the cost of transmission line
termination in substations will be estimated.The costs of major
equipment such as circuit breakers,will be given as a separate
costs.For the purpose of cost estimates,substation bus
arrangements will be assumed as either breaker and a half or ring
bus.Receiving substation transformer requirements will be
estimated according to previous studies,and load center
requirements.Generator step-up transformers and hydroelectric
plant substation equipment costs will be included in the cost of
the hydro project.
Preliminary substation layouts and transmission line
configurations,including one-line diagrams,typical structures,
and preliminary route studies,will be prepared ror inclusion in
the Basin Planning Report.
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -43-
The report will include methods for protect1~n of permafrost
during and after construction.All ongoing environmental
research will be closely watched and pertinent results will be
utilized.
CONSTRUCTION COSTS AND PROGRAMS
The general method of study of construction programs and
costs in Phase I will be the contractor's unit price method,
similar to that described below under the Phase II methodology.
However,the calculation of unit prices will be less detailed in
the Phase I studies,and unit prices for a wider range of types
and volume of construction quantities will be required.
Costs and unit prices for the reconnaissance studies will be
based on multipliers reflecting costs and productivity under
Alaskan conditions,Corps of Engineers estimates,and other
available infoMnation.
A cost estimator will visit the project area as early as
practical in Phase I to evaluate the severity of construction
conditions and collect,at first hand,data on cost and
availability of labor and materials.A basic set of unit prices
will be developed for use in the prefeasibi11ty studies,and
these will be updated and adjusted for each of the project
estimates used in the final comparison of plans or development.
Costs of generating equipment and transmission lines will be
based on experienced costs from other,similar projects and
confirmed by preliminary quotations from manufacturers of major
equipment.
A preliminary constructibility analysis will be made of each
of the projects in the alternative plans of development,and a
preliminary construction schedule will be prepared for each
project.
ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL ANALYSES
Economic Analyses
The Phase I economic studies will utilize an internal rate
of return analysis to rank the alternative basin plans of
development on an economic basis and make a preliminary
comparison between them and a selected thermal alternative.The
analysis compares the present worth of the total expenditure
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -44-
series for each alternative basin plan with the p~esent worth of
a series of annual benefits represented by the ~~ual costs of a
selected thermal alternative.The internal rate of return is the
discount rate,for each basin plan,at which the present worths
of costs and benefits are equal.The Susitna basin development
plan with the highest internal rate of re~urn and least
environmental impact will be considered for fu~ther study in
Phase II.All costs used in the study will be at a constant
price level,probably as of early 1980,and ~he alternative
expenditure series will be discounted to that date.Since this
method of economic analysis omits all effects of escalation,
including the foreseeable differential escalation of fuel costs,
a suitable low discount rate will be used as a criterion when
making the preliminary comparison between hydro and thermal
alternatives.The purpose of the preliminary hydro-thermal
comparison is to indicate that the initial project and basin
development plan are economically viable before proceeding with
the Phase II studies.
Financial Analyses
The preliminary financial analyses will estimate the
financial requirements of the APA and the local utilities with
and without the initial Susitna project and the corresponding
financial effects on their electric customers.
BASIN PLAN REPORT
A Basin Plan Report will be prepared to document the
selection of the initial project and the basin plan of
development at the pre-feasibility level.It will consist of a
main report and appendices with detailed information on the major
aspects of the study,as follows:
a.Hydrology
b.Geotechnical Studies
c.Power Market Studies
d.Alternative Sources of Generation
e.Transmission
f.Selection of the Basic Plan
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -45-
PHASE II -FEASIBILITY STUDIES
Phase II studies will be performed to establish the
technical,economic,and financial feasibility of the Initial
Project selected in Phase I to meet requirecents of the FERC
License Application.The major work programs of Phase II are
described below.
HYDROLOGIC AND RIVER HYDRAULICS STUDIES
The hydrologic analyses for the Phase II study will involve
(a)a detailed evaluation of long range water supply through
stochastic analyses;(b)the determination of design and
diversion floods through refined PMF and flood frequency analyses
with proper account given to ice problems;(c)a refined
estimation of reservoir sedimentation and an evaluation of
potential downstream degradation;(d)the development of the
tailwater rating curve for the selected site or sites;
(e)development of water surface profiles for affected downstream
areas;(f)modeling of selected water quality parameters;and
(g)preparation of pertinent exhibits fo~the license
application.
Available Water Supply
The flow of the Susitna River is highly seasonal,with more
than 85 percent of average annual streamflow occuring in the
five-month-period from May to September due to snowmelt and
summer rains.This high concentration of annual flows in the
summer suggests the need for large storage capacities to meet the
high energy demands in the winter.
The contributions of streamflow from different portions of
the Susitna basin also vary considerably.The ccntributions from
the intervening area between the Denali and Vee sites are
particularly low (1.0 cfs/mi3)as compared to other portions of
the basin (about 2 cfs/mi3).There are several possible reasons,
such as less precipitation due to the relatively flat topography
and possible migration of groundwater eastward to the Cooper
River Basin,that could cause the particularly low yield.These
and other possible reasons for the low yield will be investigated
to insure that the low flow figure for the inte~vening area is
not due to inaccuracy in recorded data.
The streamflow
to nearly 30 years.
11-100 8 Sept.1979
records for the Susitna River range from 11
These records mayor may not include
-46-
critical flow sequences that can be expected during the economic
life of the project.Therefore,extension of the recorded data
for a longer period will be essential.Extensions of streamflow
data are generally accomplished by correlation with longer
periods of climatological data or by stochastic generation based
on the statistics of recorded streamflows.In view of the
complex effect of permafrost and snow and glacier melts on
precipitation-runoff relationships,the correlation method
probably will not be practical except those among the stream
gaging stations.Therefore,the extension of streamflow data
will be primarily based on stochastic generation based on the
statistics of recorded data.The generated data will be tested
for conformance with the recorded data before being used for
reservoir operation studies.The lowest flow of record in the
Susitna River is that of the 1969 drought.The frequency of
occurrence of this drought as well as those or more severe
droughts will be determined by a frequency analysis using the
recorded and generated low flow sequences.
Reservoir evaporation may be greater or smaller than the
evapotranspiration-before-construction of the dam.Therefore,a
reservoir may cause a net loss or gain in available water supply
depending on precipitation,soil and vegetation in the reservoir
area.Net gain or loss due to the reservoir evaporation will be
estimated and accounted for in the estimation of available water
supply.
Flood Analysis
Spring floods of the Susitna River are mostly of low peak
and long duration while the summer floods are nostly or high
peaks and short duration.Depending on the size or the storage
capacity,the critical flood for design purposes may be a summer
flood or a spring flood.Summer and spring probable maximum
floods (P~F)have been estimated by the Corps or Engineers for
the Watana and Devil Canyon sites.The estimates are based on
the analysis of probable maxium precipitation (PMP),snowmelt and
unit hydrographs.Some analyses were also Dade by the U.S.
Bureau of Reclamation for the Denali and Devil Canyon sites and
by Kaiser Engineers for the Devil Canyon site.The basic data
and results of these analyses will be carefully reviewed using
updated storm and flood data to evaluate the adequacy of the PMF
estimates and to refine the estimates if necessary.
Portions of the Susitna Basin are underlain by permafrost,
which may reduce or prevent infiltration and hence increase flood
runoff.Average depths and seasonal variation to the permafrost
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -47-
table will be estimated and considered in the review and
performance of the PMF analyses.
Floods due to outburst of glacier-dammed lakes also could
cause severe floods in the Susitna River as ir.dicated by the
studies made by the USGS.Most of the glacial lakes in the
Susitna basin are small but even a relatively small lake can
cause a severe flood.The flood of 359,000 cfs in July 1958 due
to the breakout of Lake George in the Knik River Basin in
Southern Alaska and the flood of 110,000 cfs on 1:ovember 30,1965
due to drainage off Summit Lake in British Columbia are examples.
The potential of major floods in the Susitna River due to
drainage of glacier dammed lakes will be evaluated and a
comparison made with historical floods of similar lakes.
Discussions and consultation also will be held with local
authorities,_such as the USGS and the Geophysical Insitute of the
University of Alaska on this subject.
Ice jams also could cause flood damage and alter the
tailwater rating curves.Available information on the Susitna
River will be analyzed for the effect of the dam on ice
formations and dissipation of the jams.
The release of fresh water from the reservoir during the
winter period would increase the ice formation in the estuary of
the Susitna River.This potential icing will be evaluated based
on the reservoir and stream water temperature study described in
the following section on water quality.
Sedimentation
Sediment analyses made in the Phase I studies will be
refined for the specific site or sites selected for the
feasibility study.The refinement will include a careful review
and possible refinement of the sediment rating curves.Sediment
distribution in the reservoir will be calculated by the Empirical
Area Reduction Method.Channel degradation downstream of the dam
mayor may not be serious depending on the downstream controls,
bed material and flow velocity.Potential natural downstream
controls will be identified through field investigations in
evaluating the degradation potential.Bed material will be
sampled to calculate degradation that will result in adequate
armoring.
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -48-
...
Tailwater Curves and Water Surface Profiles
Tailwater Rating Curves
The tailwater rating curve for each selected site will be
prepared based on stage -discharge rating curve for the nearest
downstream gaging station and/or backwater computations and the
degradation studies.Tailwater curves under preproject and fully
degraded conditions (with project)will be developed.
Water Surface Profiles
Backwater computations covering affected dOftnstream reaches
of the river will be performed using the U.S.Army Corps of
Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center Computer Program
HEC-2,"Water Surface Profiles."Surveyed channel cross-sections
at selected points will provide necessary input to the program.
Water surface profiles,with and without the project,will be
developed for floods of various recurrence intervals.These
profiles will be used to determine downstream effects,on,for
example,moose feeding grounds.
Water Quality Studies
The WQRRS Model developed by the Corps of Engineers will be
used to analyze the water quality in the reservoir and the
Sustina River.The model can simulate up to 18 water quality
constituents including temperature,dissolved oxygen and nine
chemical and seven biological parameters.It is aniticpated that
water temperature,dissolved oxygen and suspended glacier flour
will be of major concern but other parameters may be included in
the model through discussion with project ecologists.
The model will be calibrated by using existing data and
supplemental data to be collected through the monitoring program
described under the aquatic ecology section of environmental
studies.The calibrated model will be used to simulate the
reservoir and stream water quality for summer and possibly spring
and fall seasons.During the winter season when the reservoir
and stream surfaces are frozen,the WQRRS model will not be
applicable.Since there is insufficient knowledge of magnitude
of the winter problem at the present time,a simplified analysis
using an empirical formula will be made for the winter season to
identify the need and formulate the method for further analyses.
Harza's experiences on the Burfell Thorisvant project in
Iceland,the Great Lakes -St.Lawrence Seaway Winter Navigation
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -49-
Project,and the Rock River Ice Flooding Project (Illinois)will
be useful in identifying and solving winter ice problems.
The glacier flour (or glacier milk)can not be simulated
properly by the WQRRS Model.The magnitude of the problem will
be identified through discussion with project ecologists and
local authorities.The method for analyzing and solving the
problem will be formulated accordingly.
License Application
Most hydrologic information required to prepare the
exhibits,expecially Exhibit H (Hydrology)and W (Environmental
Quality),would be available from the Phase I and II hydrologic
analyses.This information will be used to prepare appropriate
sections of the license application if desired by APA.
Additional analyses such as reservoir stratification and flood
waves due to hypothetical dam failure may be required depending
on local regulations and findings during the site selection and
feasibility studies.If such analyses are needed they can be
effectively carried out with Harza's in-house personnel and
facilities in parallel with the feasibility study.
GEOTECHNICAL STUDIES
Introduction
The relationship between the Phase I and Phase II
geotechnical studies and the preliminary planning for the
Phase II study are described in the Geotechnical section in
Phase I.the activities of the Phase II investigations are
described in this section.
Relatively few hydroelectric projects have been constructed
in permafrost areas of North America,and those installations are
of low height,generally less than 80 feet.For example,
although Churchill Falls Project (completed 1972)has an active
storage of approximately 23,000 acre-feet and aloost 40 miles of
dikes,these dikes range in height from only a few feet to a
maximum of 117 feet.Although relatively high water storage
embankments have been constructed by the USSR in deep permafrost
areas,no large structure is reported to have been constructed in
a discontinuous permafrost region such as the Susitna River
Basin.The state of thermal regime in this type of permafrost
region is very sensitive to water storage projects and will
require special considerations,especially with a moderate to
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -50-
high structure without precedence.However,the ~nderstanding of
the technology about the permafrost conditions is now much more
advanced than one or two decades ago.The need for projects to
develop resources in a subarctic environment has contributed to
the understanding of the behavior of the soil and rock to the
extent that mathematical models can be used to reliably extend
that knowledge to new areas,such as a large hydroelectric
development.This technology is available to the practicing
engineer through written material,conference proceedings,and
performance of engineering structures in permafrost and
marginally permafrost regions.Our feasibility studies will
address the pertinent problems of permafrost along with other
geotechnical and seismic considerations in evaluating the
suitability of a site.We will secure the assistance of a
specialist experienced in geotechnical problems in permafrost
regions.
The activities to be performed during the feasibility stage
are described herein.The program is somewhat general in nature
at this time and will be tailored to the needs of a specific site
selected for the feasibility studies.Further,it is recognized
that a considerable amount of work has already been performed on
Watana and Devil Canyon damsites,and some work on Vee Canyon and
Denali sites.If any of the above sites are selected for initial
development,additional work will be planned for the selected
site to complete the feasibility stage design.
Geotechnical Investigations
Feasibility stage investigations will be conducted by Harza
Engineering Company;with some specific studies,drilling,
geophysical work,and laboratory testing,done by subcontractors
with direction and review by Harza.
Feasibility studies are a more definitive phase of project
investigation.This phase involves completion of detailed
geologic surface mapping and preparation of geologic sections to
demonstrate the subsurface site conditions inferred from basin
planning studies.The exploratory work is carried out to satisfy
geotechnical requirements,and the scope will vary depending on
the selection of the initial site.The availability of suitable
construction materials is also an integral part or this study.A
limited amount of geotechnical study will be required for access
roads and transmission tower foundations.
The data will be compiled,analyzed and reduced to the
format directly applicable to the feasibility level design.The
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -51-
results of the program will be evaluated as the work progresses
and,where deemed necessary,modifications will be made.
It is our intent to staff the senior level positions from
our Chicago office,and to hire at least two experienced field
geologists from Alaska to complete our field teams for the
reconnaissance mapping and site drilling.Consultants and
advisors for special studies will be retained whe~e necessary.
Foundation Investigations
A foundation investigation program will be prepared for the
site designated for the initial development.~e information
available on Watana and Devil Canyon sites will be used in
planning the work.The program will include detailed geologic
mapping,drill holes and test pits for the dam and underground
powerhouse,switchyard,tunnels (power,diversion and tailrace),
spillway structure,and other appurtenant structures.The
results will be supplemented with geophysical tests as described
later.Requirements for coring,sampling and testing will be
specified.Stratigraphic correlation,presence or major faults
and shear zones,depth of weathering,sound rock horizon and
ground water conditions will be established.Field tests such as
permeability tests,standard penetration tests,and the
geophysical tests in the borings for the underground powerhouse
will be included in the program.Water pressure tests will be
performed to determine the general permeability,seepage
potential,grouting,and drainage requirements under the dam and
in the abutments and the underground powerhouse.Selected
samples will be tested to determine their stress-strain
characteristics.Disturbed and undisturbed soil samples will be
retrieved for testing in the laboratory to determine the index
properties and the other pertinent engineering characteristics.
Requirements for these activities will be written and procedures
established prior to the beginning of the activities.The
location of the borings and the test pits will be dictated by the
location of the various structures (dam,powerhouse,sWitchyard,
spillway)and access to the site.
...
The possibility of encountering permafrost in
abutment areas will be examined with the goal or
nature and extent of frozen ground that may becooe
thawed.This will be accomplished by a combination
sampling,and subsurface temperature measurements.
and above the
defining the
unstable when
of drilling,
Test pits and trenches will be planned along the abutment
slopes and the valley bottom to collect bulk samples,to expose
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -52-
rock surface for examination,and to obtain block samples of fine
grained material.
Investigations previously performed at W~tana and Devil
Canyon sites have indicated that the permafrost is in a marginal
state.This makes it difficult to obtain represe~tative samples,
because the drilling operations change the thermal balance from a
frozen to a thawed state.Also,the characteristics of the
material are markedly different when they are thawed as compared
to when they are frozen or in a transitional state of thawing.
This will require special care and techniques in sampling,sample
handling,and transportation.The methods and techniques will
depend on the type of tests to be performed and the studies
planned for the feasibility stage.Portable refrigerators
powered by portable electric generators may be required for
storage and shipment of samples.Usually the samples are wrapped
in cellophane and placed in well-sealed,deaired polyethylene
bags.Similarly,the choice of drilling fluids may include
diesel fuel,air,brine or some type of antifreeze,depending
upon the site conditions,and environmental constraints imposed
by the jurisdictional authority.Experience gathered in a
subarctic environment on investigation procedures will be
evaluated to develop procedures for the Susitna Bcsin work.
Reservoir Investigations
A program for geologic mapping of reservoi~slopes will be
prepared to identify the areas of potential instability and
distribution and location of frozen overburden that may become
unstable when thawed due to reservoir filling.If necessary,
these investigations will be supplemented with drilling and
sampling and/or geophysical surveying.
In the discontinuous permafrost zone of Alaska,
surface of a permafrost layer is sufficiently deep so
geomorphic and botanical indicators commonly used
permafrost farther north may be missing.
the upper
that the
to locate
Location and extent of these potentially unstable areas will
have been identified during reconnaissance mapping,and
confirmation may be required by drilling during this phase.
Drilling techniques capable of producing undisturbed
samples,and the measurement of deep ground tempe~atures will be
necessary to adequately explore and define large zones of
potentially unstable permafrost.
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -53-
Investigations conducted by the U.S.Bureau of Reclamation
and the U.S.Corps of Engineers have indicated locations of
various scarps at Devil Canyon reservoir site and Watana site
that can be attributed to unstable conditions.In Devil Canyon
reservoir site,southerly dipping near vertical joints may create
problems of rock stability during a seismic event.At Watana
site,many scarps are found paralleling shear pla~es or prominent
jointing and,although the abutments were not exac~ned in as much
detail as for Devil Canyon site,these scarps could be the result
of rockfall due to thawing and freezing accentuated by tectonic
activities.Similar characteristic features cay be expected
throughout the Susitna River Basin and will have significant
impact on site suitability.Investigation programs will be
planned to confirm areas of potential instability ~dentified by
USBR and USCE during the reconnaissance survey,and to identify
additional areas including their state of thermal regime,depth
of permafrost table,active layer thickness and existence of
Taliks (unfrozen ground within permafrost).It Gas been noted
that permafrost is more evident on north facing slopes and that
some icing has been noted on these slopes indicatLng a source of
water seepage;these factors will be considered in planning
studies.
Geophysical Investigations
Geophysical investigations will be planned to supplement the
information gathered from foundation investigat~ons and to
determine the dynamic shear modulus,and shear wave velocity
characteristics of the rock units in low strain range.Much
geophysical work has already been accomplished for the Devil
Canyon and Watana sites.The previous data will be used in
planning further activities for these sites and other candidate
sites.The program will include seismic refraction surveys,
downhole and crosshole velocity surveys,and selected downhole
geophysical surveys.The work program will be planned and
conducted by others,such as Shannon and Wilson.The program
will be designed to be flexible enough so that changes could be
made as deemed necessary during the progress of the work.
Seismicity and Fault Investigations
It is known that the Susitna Basin is located within a
highly seismic region with identified faults of reg~onal
importance.The seismicity and tectonics of the region are not
yet well understood.Therefore,considering the ~mportance of
the Susitna Basin Development to the region and the large
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -5~-
investments involved,this aspect of the project planning and
design deserves special attention.The studies conducted by the
USBR,the USCE,the USGS,the University of Alaska Geophysical
Institute and the data available in the literature will be used
in planning further investigations.The program will be
conducted by Woodward -Clyde Consultants as a continuation of
their field studies under Phase I.
Construction Materials Investigations
Construction material availability is a very important part
of this study because of the large quantities required.Much
information is available for the Devil Canyon and Watana sites.
Programs will be developed for additional work at these sites and
other selected potential sites.This program will include field
reconnaissance,drilling of rotary and auger holes,test pits and
trenches,retrieval of bulk samples for laboratory testing for
embankment and concrete aggregate materials,and use of
refraction survey data to estimate the volumes available at
particular borrow locations.
Previous studies have identified deposits or river alluvium
at the confluence of Cheechako Creek with the Susitna River near
Devil Canyon site and at the confluence of Tsusena Creek and the
Susitna River for the Watana site.The material from these
sources has been reported to be acceptable for concrete aggregate
as well as fine filter for an embankment.These rindings will be
confirmed both as to their quality and quantity ir either site is
selected for an embankment dam.It has been our experience that
use of river alluvium in the embankment requires special
considerations,particularly if this alluvium contains more
moisture than optimum,for two reasons:(1)the material drying
becomes a problem as soon as fines content (passing i200 sieve)
of the material exceeds 7 percent by weight,and (2)compaction
of this material in the wet state becomes impossible due to
pumping action.Therefore,where large quantities of alluvium
are expected to be within a reasonable haul distance of an
embankment site,a test fill program of limited extent may be
desirable and this may be included in the materials
investigations program.
At the Watana site,the source of impervious and
semi-impervious material was identified to be glacial till
deposits.Further,the fine portion of this till deposit was
found to exhibit two characteristics that need additional
evaluation.First,the material exhibited a rather low optimum
moisture content (close to 7.5 percent)which may necessitate
drying prior to placement;and secondly,if placed wetter than
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -55-
optimum moisture content,the material loses strength rather
rapidly.Since the origin of fine grained so~ls suitable for
impervious core may be similar throughout the Upper Susitna
basin,similar characteristics may be expected at other potential
locations.Therefore,this aspect of the material investigations
will be given due attention for lits impact on design of an
economical cross section of the embankment.
Rock cores from potential
gravel and sand deposits and other
to the laboratory for concrete
suitability tests.
quarries and b~lk samples from
potential areas will be taken
aggregate and embankment fill
Our discussions at the University of Alaska with personnel
engaged in economic,mineral and mining investiga~ions,revealed
that occurrence of limestone in the Talkeetna Mo~ntains area may
have potential for cement manufacture.A nearby source of cement
.would impact favorably on project economics,~articularly for
concrete dams,and on the economic development o~the Railbelt
Region as well.Our Phase II materials inv=stigations will
thoroughly investigate cement production possib~lities if our
Phase I reconnaissance confirms that such potential exists.
Laboratory Testing Program
A laboratory testing program compati~le with field
investigations and design studies will be planned.The program
will be divided in three categories described as ~ollows:
Index Tests
These tests will be performed by a local laboratory under Harza's
direction and supervision.If the scope of investigations
dictates,a field laboratory may be set up to reduce the cost of
transporting the samples to a distant laboratory.The tests will
include grain size analyses,specific gravity,natural moisture
content,Atterberg limits (on fine grained soils),and unit
weight of block samples (from test pits)from e~bankment borrow
materials,and overburden materials,and acceptance tests for
sources of concrete aggregate.We have confi~ed that in both
Anchorage and Fairbanks,there are well equipped,well staffed
laboratories capable of this testing.
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -56-
Structural Property Tests
These tests will include determination of engineering
characteristics of the embankment construction material,
foundation rock and overburden,and fill material for the access
roads.Undisturbed block and tube samples of foundation soils
will be tested to determine the character of in place soils.
In general,testing will include permeability tests,
triaxial and simple shear tests,compressibility tests,
unconfined compression and confined compression tests to
determine elastic properties.Additional tests needed are
dispersion on both undisturbed and recompacted s~ples,moisture
density relationship and relative density tests on embankment
fill material,and unconfined compression tests on selected rock
samples.
Rock samples from potential quarry areas,required
excavation areas from powerhouse,spillway and tunnels,and
coarse aggregate from alluvium deposits will be tested for
suitability as rockfill and slope protection material.Certain
tests will require unconventional setups to test soil and rock
material under high stress conditions representative of stress
conditions within the embankment.
Concrete Aggregate Tests and Rock Durability Tests
Appropriate tests will be performed on potential concrete
aggregate and rockfill source materials to determine their
suitability characteristics.The tests will be performed on
alluvial material,if available in sufficient quantity at a site
and on rock core samples.The tests will include Los Angeles
abrasion,crushing hardness,reactivity,sulfate soundness,
specific gravity and absorption and petrographic analysis for
concrete aggregate.The alluvial deposits near Devil Canyon and
Watana sites have been identified by previous studies to be
acceptable for concrete aggregate;this will be confirmed through
additional tests.
Instrumentation Program
An instrumentation program will be planned and executed to
include ground water monitoring,ground temperature monitoring,
and microseismic and macroseismic network.Open standpipes with
special features to prevent freezing will be installed to monitor
the ground water level fluctuations in critical areas.Ground
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -57-
temperature monitoring is necessary to determine the depth of
permafrost and the temperature variations within the ground as
this information may not be available from drilling operations
due to the marginal state of permafrost in some areas.This may
include installation of thermo-couples with suitable readout
equipment for the site.This information is userul for planning
of foundation treatment procedures,overburden stability problems
when permafrost is thawed,and construction material
considerations.
Feasibility Level Layout and Design Studies
On the basis of the geotechnical investigation results and
compatible with economic,hydraulic,power,environmental and
other project development considerations,layout and preliminary
design of various features of the project will be prepared and
evaluated.Possible layout for the powerhouse structures
(underground and surface)location,outer slopes and internal
geometry of embankment dams,impervious core versus concrete face
rockfill dam,layout of concrete arch or gravity dam,location
and orientation of spillway structures,diversion and power
tunnels and swi tchyard location will be studied.Quant'i ty
estimates and material availability studies will be performed for
comparative cost evaluations.Access road layouts will be
studied.Foundation treatment concepts will be developed for the
dam and the abutments.Rock mechanics studies wi11 be performed
to determine the temporary and permanent rock cut slopes for
exterior and underground excavations.Preliminary rock support
requirements and viable concepts will be studied for underground
excavations.
Studies for the dam will begin with axis location and
relative suitability for arch,gravity,or embankcent dams.For
embankment dams,the relative merits of impervious core rockfill
versus concrete face rockfill will be studied.A concrete face
rockfill dam may be attractive for consideration of short
construction,rather wet period,sensitive fine grained soil for
core and reduced costs in foundation excavation.Features such
as presence of a known or suspected fault that may cause surface
rupture will be important in determining the type of dam
(concrete versus earth/rockfill).In the event tee choice is an
earth/rockfill dam,then further studies will be performed to
determine stable slopes,freeboard requirements and material
requirements.It is realized that a liberal freeboard and use of
wide filters upstream and downstream of the core will be
prererred due to seismic exposure.Internal geometry and crest
details will be developed on the basis or available construction
material,internal stress distribution,and environmental
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -58-
constraints of the sub-arctic region on construct~~n activities.
Transient and stabilized thermal regime conditions within the
embankment may be studied as discussed under sDecial studies.
Construction material optimization studies will-be performed to
arrive at an optimum cross section.These studies will include
availablility of the materials,distance and workability,and
construction sequence as far as it affects the material
stockpiling and handling requirements.
Alternative layouts for the powerhouse and tunnels will be
studied.This will require rock mechanics studies on excavation
stability and rock support system and access to the underground
facility (vertical shaft,level adit).Spillway excavation
slopes will be studied using rock mechanics concepts.
SWitchyard and transmission corridor layouts will be studied
in view of the foundation conditions.Access road layouts will
be studied for construction material availability,susceptibility
to permafrost action,stability of slopes along the route,and
foundation conditions for structures across rivers,creeks and
ravines.
A final layout of facilities and preliminary design will be
prepared for presentation to the APA.
An important factor that will be considered during these
layout and preliminary design studies is the condition of
permafrost that may affect the design considerations.This will
depend on a specific site condition location,and the scope and
impact may vary considerably.At this time,it is not possible
to address these issues except in generalities.~more specific
scope will be defined during the basin planning and early stages
of feasibility studies.
Geotechnical studies will be conducted to formulate and
support feasibility stage design.A brief description of these
studies and methodology is presented here.
Foundation Design Studies
This will include development of geologic profiles,bedrock
surface,and depth to sound competent rock.Requirements for
seepage cutoff and foundation treatment in the rorm of grouting
and drainage under the dam,spillway and abutments will be
studied.Alternative treatment concepts will be developed.
Studies may
accelerating the
be required to investigate the advisability of
thawing of the foundation as opposed to
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -59-
protecting the permafrost conditions.Wherev=r possible,the
advantage of the existence of the permafrost cond~tions will be
taken in planning of foundation treatment.In case,overburden
deposits or weathered rock are left under the shells of the
embankment,means of protecting the permafrost in the downstream
zone will be studied and compared with the hazards of thawing of
this material.Also,accelerated thawing of upstream zones may
be considered to expedite the change in the~al regime and
consolidation.Means of relieving the excess pore pressures
caused by a rapidly advancing thermal bulb under ~he foundation,
such as sand drains,will be studied where pert~ent.Also the
effect of the embankment on the stabilization of the permafrost
under the downstream portions will be studied.The scope and
level sophistication of these studies will depen~on the site
conditions as discussed under Special Studies.
Rock Mechanics Studies
These studies will include evaluation ~~d study of rock
discontinuities such as joints,shears or faults,their density
and orientation,and their influence on sta~ility of rock
excavation cuts and underground structures.Preliminary analyses
will be done on rock slope stability for permanent excavation
slopes,including the considerations for permafrost.
The squeeze potential of the rock during excavation for
underground facilities will be studied and possible excavation
methods for tunnels and underground powerhouse cavern will be
developed.Rock support requirements and systems (rock bolting,
guniting,lining)will be studied.
Static Slope Stability Analyses for Embankment D~Slopes
Preliminary design of the embankment will be based on the
material characteristics,previous experience and sound judgment.
The slopes will then be analyzed using cost effective techniques.
Harza maintains two computer programs i.e.Stephen G.Wright
program and Harza-Morgenstern computer program.Analyses will be
made for intermediate and ultimate construction conditions,
steady state seepage conditions with normal reservoir pool,high
reservoir pool conditions and postulated drawdown conditions.It
is our practice to check the results of these computer analyses
with hand computation to provide a direct check on the accuracy
of the results.The analyses will be performed using compatible
material characteristics.
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -60-
The Corps of Engineers,in their studies ~or Watana site,
noted that the shear strength characteristics of ~he fine grained
soils derived from the glacial till were very sensitive to the
placement moisture content.Particularly the material was found
to lose strength when placed wet of optimum moist~re content.We
have noted similar behavior for residual soils in tropical
regions of Central and South America where the ma~erial loses its
strength rapidly when placed wet of optimum.The only difference
is that the optimum water content for those soils is much higher
than that in the continental United States.In such instances,
we perform a sensitivity study wherein we study the correlation
of changing shear strength with dam cross section ror appropriate
safety factors.These studies help in establishing the
construction control requirements without putting undue
restrictions on moisture control and shall have a cost effective
structure.This type of study is especially important where a
short construction season may preclude the drying of core
material.The relationship of thermal regime analysis as it may
influence the stability is discussed under Special Studies.
Settlement Analyses
For a high embankment dam,settlement analysis is important
in establishing freeboard requirements and study or differential
settlements that can cause internal cracking.Settlement
analysis will be performed using SEPaL program and compatible
soil/rock parameters.The work will be checked using hand
computations and comparison with Harza experience on previous
jobs and published case histories.
One of the unique features of the settlement analysis for
this development is the settlement due to the change in
permafrost condition where the embankment or portion of it is to
be founded on permafrost soil/rock.This aspect is discussed
under Special Studies.
Seepage Studies
These will include seepage studies through the embankment
dam,foundations,abutments and reservoir rim.S~udies will be
performed using conventional flow-net analysis and knowledge of
joint frequency,pattern,and orientation within the rock.The
results will be used in formulating foundation treatment concepts
such as seepage cutoff measures and grouting and drainage
curtain.Seepage through the reservoir rim-will also influence
the ground water table around the project.
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -61-
In areas where permafrost may be encountered,seepage will
result in degradation of permafrost.Also the permeability of
the media (soil or rock)will change with changing thermal
conditions.These aspects are discussed under Special Studies.
Reservoir Slope Stability Analyses
The reservoir slopes at each dam site will be examined in
detail to locate and define potential landslides or rockslides of
sufficient magnitude to damage the dam directly or by wave
overtopping,or seriously reducing storage volume of the
reservoir.This will require special attent~on due to the
subarctic climate where perennially frozen valley slopes,which
are stable under permafrost conditions,may beco~e unstable when
thawed due to reservoir filling.
North-facing slopes in the Watana area are known to contain
permafrost in many locations.Much surficial evidence of
permafrost on south-facing slopes upstream near Vee and Denali
sites was observed during the Harza helicopter reconnaissance
trip in July 1979.Existence of permafrost in alluvium masses
with slide potential when inundated by the reservoir will likely
thaw and initiate sliding by release of toe support.Thawing of
permafrost in joints and fractures in rOCk,especially with dip
slope into the reservoir,may activate large rock slides.
Additional hazards of potential slides are activated by
earthquake forces imposed on a toe-saturated alluvial mass,or
release due to ice fracture from ground vibration.These
potential hazards will need to be identified and evaluated.
The stability of these slopes will be analyzed for both
static and seismic conditions.Their effect on dam freeboard
requirements against overtopping will be evaluated.Risk versus
cost of stabilizing these areas will be studied.The stability
of these masses will require attention for the following reasons:
a.The fact that they may have experienced movement in the
past is indicative of their limiting state of
equilibrium which in many cases may be belped by freeze
back and ice inclusions in shear planes.These masses,
when submerged under reservoir,will experience thawing
and lose the cohesion along the shear planes due to the
presence of ice thereby making them more vulnerable to
failure.
b.Degradation of the permafrost table in the overburden
portion of the reservoir slopes may cause excessive
pore pressures in layers along critical planes thereby
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -62-
reducing shear strength markedly.
slide of mass above that plane in
the toe of a large mass of soil or
level.
This may cause a
a slcpe or undermine
rock above reservoir
c.Marginally stable soil mass or rock mass may experience
large build up of pore pressure due to ~~awing and when
coupled with inertial effects of the earthquake may
cause land slides.
These points are discussed under Special Stucles.
Seismic Analysis of Embankment
A proper evaluation of behavior of an·ecbankment during
postulated seismic event requires use of nonlinea~dynamic soil
parameters,internal static stress distribution prior to an
event,development of site related earthquake time history,and
use of finite element program such as FLUSH.D~.H.B.Seed,in
19th Rankin Lecture delivered this year on "Consicerations in the
Earthquake-Resistant Design of Earth and Rockf~ll Dams"stated
that the type of analysis and the level of sophistication is
dictated by the material of which the dam is constructed.He
further stated that for materials that do not lose strength
significantly under seismic conditions,pseudos~atic or Newmark
type analysis is extremely useful.Our recent experiences with
the seismic analysis of embankments indicate similar conclusions.
Therefore,for feasibility stage,we anticipate a Newmark or
simplified Seed type analysis to estimate the level of permanent
deformations caused by a postulated earthquake event.For final
design,however,a more detailed analysis including finite
element techniques may be required.
Special Studies
Previous studies conducted by the USBR and the USCE have
identified existence of permafrost within the Basin and
permafrost related phenomenon such as solifluction,soil creep
and land slips in varying degrees at Watana site 2nd Devil Canyon
site.This may require study of the preproject thermal regime,
the impact of development (dam and reservoir)on ~t and the rate
of change of the thermal regime.The scope of these studies will
depend on the type of problem encountered and the structure
selected for a site.We will determine the scope and level of
sophistication of these studies during the River Basin study and
the planning of feasibility investigations and feasibility
studies.The following is a general discussion oT the studies
that may be required.At this time we have made no provision for
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -63-
these studies in our cost estimate as it ca~illot be easily
identified.
Studies on thermal regime variation may be required to
estimate the rate that a "thawfront"will advance due to seepage
from the reservoir or the possible aggradation of permafrost
where it is protected.The results of these stud~es will then be
incorporated into other studies such as seepage,slope stability
or settlement analyses.Also the behavior of the soil mass while
thawing may have to be studied for its relati8nship to excess
pore pressures (static and seismic stability),settlement and
other related phenomenon.These studies may require the use of
finite element or finite difference techniques.The advance of a
thaw front due to seepage is similar to the advance of
"saturation front"in a thick impervious core for a high
embankment.We have been successful in modelling this phenomenon
with finite element techniques.Similar approach will be used in
analyzing the advance of "thaw front"in changing thermal regime.
The parameters needed for such studies would include heat
conductivity and permeability of media both in permafrost
condition,and thawed condition,temperature of permafrost
condition,average yearly temperature,amount of ice present in
the soil/rock and limiting boundary conditions.?or preliminary
studies,some of these parameters can be estima~ed on the basis
of previous work and general soil conditions.
Settlements caused by degradation of pe~afrost can be
significant.These settlements are caused partly by melting of
ice inclusions in soil or rock,and partly by consolidation of
soil.The data on performance of two major dikes with maximum
height of about 20 feet at Kelsey generating stat~on in Manitoba,
where permafrost foundation experienced degradation through
underseepage,indicate that reasonable estimates of settlement
due to thawing can be made using material characteristics and
mathematical models.This requires a careful evaluation of
amounts and nature of ice present in the foundation,depth and
temperature of permafrost,and heat conductivity of soil/rock
during frozen,and unfrozen states.Some ins~ght into this
aspect,as far as time rate is concerned,will be possible from
thermal regime change analysis as discussed later.
We have experienced similar phenomenon is soils of residual
origin where the soil structure undergoes marked readjustment
when saturated and experiences rather large settlement (structure
collapse)under the same total stress conditions.We have
controlled these conditions by designing the dam and the
construction activities such that the integrity or the structure
and the foundation is maintained.
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -64-
Thawing of permafrost also changes the per~eability of the
soil and rock.If the site conditions are such that seepage
would influence the economic feasibility of a certain structure,
necessary laboratory testing on soil or rock both in frozen and
thawed state,and seepage studies may be required.
Thawing of permafrost along pre-existing and potential shear
zones will markedly change the state of equilibrium of a
potential sliding mass.This is due to the loss of cohesion by
melting of ice inclusions and presence of excess pore pressure
where drainage may be slow or obstructed.Similcrly the thawing
of ice inclusions along the joints in a rock mass reduces the
friction along the joint to near residual and causes loss of
cohesion.This could be very important in rock mechanics studies
for underground excavation and for rock slopes along the
reservoir rim.This effect is similar,in ~ature,to the
saturation of pre-existing shear planes in rock mass where a
joint is filled with soil-like matter.In tbese cases,we
perform cyclic shear load tests to determine the residual
strength of the shear plane.A similar approach may be
applicable to the thawing of ice inclusions.
The loss of permafrost in foundation soil also influences
the stability of the earth/rock embankment througt the reduction
of shear strength.However,as the thaw front ~dvances slowly,
previously thawed areas start regaining streng~h through the
release of excess pore water pressures;and thus if the rate of
thawing is known,the stability of the structure can be evaluated
at critical points.
The presence of permafrost may also be used to advantage
under certain circumstances.For example in pla~ing of grouting
operations,the permafrost would act like outer rows of grout
curtain and provide a tighter closure under relat~vely low costs.
This however,does require considerations in planning of a
thawing scheme for drilling and grouting of holes.Permafrost
can also be used to advantage in steep temporary excavation
slopes and in quarry areas where existence of permafrost would
assist the excavation slopes to remain stable.
In any event,it is recognized that perma~rost issue will
require attention on Susitna Basin Development.The scope of
studies (both laboratory and office)and the level of
sophistication of studies will be site related and cannot be
determined at this time.We will determine these factors during
the Basin planning study and the early phases of the feasibility
studies.We will seek assistance from a special~st in the field
of frozen soil/rock mechanics to assure the work and studies are
performed in the right direction.
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -65-
...
Fault Activity and Seismic Risk
This part of the study will include review or seismic field
investigations,microseismic and macroseismic net~ork data,and
review of all available published and unpubl~shed literature
related to the seismic activity in the region.For the
feasibility stage analysis and design,it will be sufficient to
define a conservatively selected maximum credible earthquake.
This data will be used in seismic stability of the embankment
dam.This study will be performed by Woodward-Clyde Consultants
under Harza's direction.It will also be desirable to conduct
preliminary probability studies to determine recurrence period
for all earthquakes with magnitude greater than 4.0 on the
Richter Scale.Also,the risk of reservoir induced earthquakes
will be evaluated.Special attention will be gLven to studying
the potential of surface rupture.The studies will form the
basis of seismic design parameters (maximum cred~ble earthquake,
design earthquake,magnitude,duration,predominant period,time
history,etc.)for the specific site finally selected for
development.
Feasibility Report
Activities and studies performed during Phcse II will lead
to the preparation of a feasibility report on a specific site.
The geotechnical portion of this report will include feasibility
level design for the recommended dam,powerhouse,spillway,
switchyard,transmission lines and access roads and other
appurtenant structures in the form of exhibits and drawings.The
results of the studies will be summarized and included with the
report.A draft report will be submitted to the APA for their
review and comments.At the conclusion of the review process,
comments will be resolved and a final report subm~tted.
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Licensing
The necessary geotechnical reports and exhibits required for
the application for licensing by the Federal Energy Regulatory
Commission will be prepared for the Alaska Power Authority.
Geotechnical data necessary for safety and design adequacy will
be incorporated in the Environmental Report.Geologic hazards
considerations and their probability of occurrence will be
discussed.
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -66-
HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT STUDIES
The Phase II studies of the project structures and equipment
will consist in general of the refinement and pre~iminary design,
at the feasibility level of the initial pro:ect selected in
Phase I.The detailed content of the Phase II s~udies will of
course depend on the type and size of structures and stages of
construction of the selected project.We assu=e for present
purposes that the initial project could be either a fill or
concrete dam scheme.The principal areas of stud7 and some of
the detailed considerations will be as follows.
Access and Relocations
Access to the sites of the project structures for
construction and operation purposes will be studied at the
feasibility level,with the aid of additional topographic and
geologic studies as required.The route selection,preliminary
design criteria,and construction procedures ~lanning will be
guided by environmental considerations from the beginning of the
study.Relocations of existing facilities,~r any,will be
planned at a comparable level of detail.A surficiently detailed
study will be made of access for construction equipment and
permanent equipment from the port of entry to t~e construction
sites,including considerations of port faci~ities,road and
railroad size and weight limitations,possible additional
unloading or special siding facilities,and winter operation and
maintenance.
Dams and Reservoirs
The selected project scheme will be deve~oped in greater
detail on the basis of the geological,geotechnic~l,hydrologic,
and topographic data as they become availab~e.The use of
construction materials from required excavations and quarries
will be studied,especially with respect to the sequence of
construction operations and possible stockpiling requirements.
The overall balance of cut and fill in the project will be
developed by types of material,and areas for stockpiles and
disposal of excess material will be identified.
The selection of the type of dam and general project
arrangement from the pre-feasibility studies in Pbase I will be
reviewed as necessary.The selection of the type or dam may be
qUite clear from the Phase I studies in view or the indicated
reservoir elevation and the place of the initia~project in the
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -67-
overall development scheme.The initial reservol~elevation may,
however,require a height of dam at which two or more types of
dam are closely competitive,and the selection also may be
affected by the results of the Phase II geotechnical studies.
Accordingly,it may be.necessary to consider alte~ative types of
dam and general project arrangement well into the feasibility
study.Our working assumption,however,is that the selection
can be made at the beginning of Phase II.
The normal reservoir elevation will be opt~mized,within a
range of elevations defined by the Phase I studies,on the basis
of the power economics of the initial project and its relation to
upstream and downstream projects.The use of sone encroachment
or raising the tailwater level at the upstream project is likely
on the basis of overall power system economics.The maximum
reservoir elevation during design flood cond~tions and the
resulting height of the dam will be optimized in conjunction with
the spillway studies.
Preliminary Design of the Dam
If the selected project includes a concre~e arch dam,the
preliminary layout studies will be refined in Phase II.The
location of the axis will be reviewed with respect to geological
considerations and overall project arrangemen~,and revised
excavation plans will be prepared based on the larger scale site
maps and results of subsurface exploration.The arch dam will be
laid out to best fit the site conditions and feasibility-level
stress analyses will be performed by existing computer-based
methods.
In the event that the selected project does not include an
arch dam the effort would be re-directed toward the necessary
studies of the selected type of structure.In the case of
concrete gravity or fill type dams the structures would be laid
out with respect to assumed excavated foundations and analyzed
for stability and foundation schemes by com~uter assisted
methods.A number of trial sections for fill dams would be
tested,with alternative geometries based on the availability and
characterisitcs of construction materials as ~iscussed in the
geotechnical section.
The main cofferdams for both fill and conc~ete dam schemes
will be major structures,possibly with severe cut-off problems
resulting from deep buried channels at so~e sites.The
construction requirements and the timing of operations with
respect to the construction seasons will be areas of emphasis.
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -68-
The stability of natural and excavated slopes and the
requirements for seepage control will be studied,as discussed in
the geotechnical section,in the areas of major project
structures and in the reservoir and tailrace areas as required.
Spillway
The spillway layout will be revised to accommodate the
project design flood as developed in the Phase II hydrology
studies and studied to provide safe operation under all operating
conditions.The need for and proper design of reservoir outlet
works will be studied.It appears that high powerstation
discharges plus some spillage will be required during each normal
summer season.Therefore a service spillway or outlet works of
adequate capacity may be required in addition to the emergency
spillway.The design of the energy dissipators and the effect of
their operation of the stability of the foundations of the dam
and slopes of the gorge will be examined.
The hydraulic design of the spillway and outlets and
selection of gates and other equipment will be based on a long
history of successfully operating spillways designed by Harza,
with special reference to projects in cold regions such as the
Burfell and Hrauneyjafoss projects in Iceland.
Diversion
The scheme for diversion during construction will be
developed to provide an economical but adequately safe solution,
taking into account the degree of risk associated with the types
of structures selected,as between concrete or fill dams and
surface or underground powerstations,including the risk of delay
in timely completion of the project.The possible use of the
diversion tunnels as part of the power facilities,probably in
the second stage of power development,or as outlet tunnels will
be investigated.The diversion facilities will be planned with
particular attention to their functioning during the winter and
the spring break up period.
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -69-
Power Facilities
The power generating facilities,consist~ng primarly of
intakes,water conductors,powerstation,and switchyard,will be
studied in detail for a range of plant capacities and initial
project reservoir elevations.A preliminary design at the
feasibility level will be prepared for the selected initial
installation.The planning will include the possible later
expansion of the plant when needed.Our concept of the initial
project suggests that the initial installation will be large
enough to achieve maximum practical utilization of the summer
secondary energy.This capacity would then become dependable
capacity with the addition of upstream storage,but additional
capacity at the initial project may not be required until the
system as a whole is substantially larger.Therefore,the
adopted project layout will permit considerable flexibility in
future expansion with a minimum of initial investment in future
provisions.
Powerstation and Switchyard
Detailed layouts will be made of the type of powerstation,
probably of the underground type,selected in Phase I.The
number,size,and orientation of the underground caverns will be
based on the geotechnical characterisitcs of tbe site,water
conductor arrangements,access arrangement,and d~mensions of the
major items of mechanical and electrical equipment.Selection of
the size of generating unit will be based on detailed study of
the plant in relation to the power system;transportation,access
and construction limitations;and permissible d~ensions of the
underground caverns.
The transformer and switchyard locations,and design
features will be selected on the basis of overall economy and
operating consideration such as the possibility of ice fogging
near the tailrace channel under some conditions.
Intakes and Water Conductors
The intakes for the underground powerstation scheme may be
in the concrete dam or in a separate structure with either type
of dam.The latter arrangement may result in some increase in
tunnel length but with some advantages in simplicity of design
and construction.The intakes will be of the multi-level type,
to permit plant discharges to be drawn from selected reservoir
elevations in accordance with environmental requirements.The
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -70-
detailed planning of the intake structures and e~uipment,with
full consideration of seasonal operating factors,will be a major
item of study.
The power tunnels and shafts and tailrace tun~els will be of
conventional design.They will be designed with full
consideration of the special geotechnical characteristics of the
site,possibly including permafrost and their relationship to the
dam foundation and seepage control system.
Operators'Village
The permanent operating facilities for the project,
including control facilities,maintenance and support facilities,
and housing and community facilities for the perr.3nent operating
staff will be included in the overall plan of development from
the beginning of the feasibility study.The location and type of
village development will be developed in conjunction with the
project access and environmental studies and with special
attention to all-season access and maintainability and to overall
energy efficiency.
Cold Regions Engineering Aspects
Understanding of the Problem
Engineering hydroelectric projects in cold regions must
consider the effects of cold climates on several features of the
project.Some of the obvious effects of cold climates are the
freezing of lake and river water surfaces,permarrost in some
cases,lack of radiant energy during winter,difficulties in
ground transportation because of snow and low temperatures and
outdoor working conditions~
At the start of planning for a hydroelectic project in a
cold region the unique conditions of climate must be recognized.
The proposed project must then be planned to be reasonablly free
of problems caused by cold climate conditions.Some aspects to
be taken into account for example are the followir~:freezing of
reservoir water surface,frazil ice,passage of ice floes,ice
loads on structures and costs and schedules of constr~ction work
during winter.Operating expenses to deal with ice conditions
must also be considered in determining the economic feasibility
of a project.
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -71-
/
After recognition of the potential problems ~f cold regions
and methods of solution proposed,it may be necessary in certain
cases to conduct model tests of the proposed st~uctures.Such
testing could include modeling of a portion of the reservoir,ice
sluices and ice booms.
During design of a project certain provisions to prevent ice
problems can be incorporated.Such provisions can be air bubble
de-icing systems,gate seal heaters,heated gate enclosures and
insulation of pipe lines.
In order to design a reasonably ice problem free project,it
is most useful to have an understanding of the physics of the
formation of the various types of ice.Experience with design
and operation of hydro projects in cold regions along with
knowledge of many other projects such as those in Scandinavia
would also be beneficial.
Areas of Study
The following are aspects to be considered in design:
1.Reservoir ice cover formation.
2.Control of ice flow movements.
3.Passage of reservoir ice.
4.Frazil ice formation .
.2..Ic ing of intakes.
a.trashracks.
b.gates •.
6.Ice formation in penstocks and surbe tank.
1.Ice formation from gate leakage at spillway.
8.Ice loads on structures.
a.dynamic loads such as impact and friction of
floating ice against structures.
b.static loads such as thermal expansion of ice
cover and ice accumulations by action of wind
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -72-
or current and freezing on structures from
water level variations.
1.Ice loads on transmission lines from freezing
rain.
10.Freezing of water spray on structures.
11.Formation of fog from cold air over warmer water
bodies.
12.Ice jams downstream of project.
11.Floods caused by step-burst upstream of project.
14.Ice erosion on hydraulic structures.
Of
studied
certain
project.
the above aspects those that are applicable will be
to determine solutions to potential problems including in
cases hydraulic model testing before design of the
Effect on Selection of ~of Dam
A major item of planning a hydroelectric project and
determining the feasibility of the project is selection of the
type of dam.Cold region conditions will have an important
influence on construction methods and schedules.Construction of
earth and rock fill or concrete dams are naturally affected by
cold conditions in such ways as permafrost in the foundation,
freezing of moisture in fill materials,cost of heating and
protecting concrete during winter and length or construction
season.The length of construction season can have a profound
effect on the selection of type of dam.Construction of a dam of
smaller volume should shorten construction time.The time needed
for thawing of frozen moisture in fills or removal of fill
materials which have been frozen could shorten the available
construction season for a fill dam.Freezing of borrow areas can
shorten available construction time.Suspension of placement of
impervious fill and protection of the fill during the winter may
be necessary.It may be possible to continue placement of dam
concrete during much of the winter,although more expensive
procedures would be required.These and related aspects will be
considered in the Phase I and Phase II studies of the type of dam
and project arrangement.
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -73-
Harza Experience
Harza made extensive studies of cold weather aspects
concerning design and operation of two hydroelectric projects in
Iceland.
These projects as designed by Harza are Burfell on the
Thorsa River and Hrauneyjafoss on the Tungna River.Construction
of Burfell was completed in 1969 and the project is operating
successfully.Construction of Hrauneyjafoss started in 1978 and
is scheduled for completion at the end of 1981.
Hydraulic model testing for these projects was conducted at
the River and Harbour Laboratory of the Norwegian Institute of
Technology in Trondheim,Norway.The model program included
testing of ice passing facilities.The Burfell project has
extensive facilities for ice passage and glacial sand passage.
At Hrauneyjafoss the reservoir is expected to have an ice cover
during winter and a one kilometer long diversion canal has been
designed for an ice cover to also form.
At a project in Northern Wisconsin,Cornell Hydroelectric
Plant which was completed in 1976,Harza designed air bubbler
de-icing systems to keep intakes and spillway gates ice free
during winter.Also the intake has additional icing protection
by receiving waste heat from the generators forced into the
intake gate house.Heating of the guides of intake gates and of
two of the spillway gates has been provided at Cornell.Also the
two spillway tainter gates have heated insulated compartments.
These compartments enclosed the entire downstream side of the
gates and are provided with electric unit heaters.
Harza has been involved in ice control studies for many
hydroelectric and navigation projects.Harza was involved in the
design of the facilities to keep navigation locks relatively ice
free for ship lockage during cold weather.For Great Lakes Power
Co.projects,ice pressures against hydraulic structures were
investigated and heated gate gUide systems were designed.
Studies on the movement of ice in reservoirs and prevention
of ice entering power intakes have been conducted.In addition,
studies were made on the prevention of ice forcation inside of
power penstocks and surge tanks by velocity control,thus
eliminating special protection such as sheathings,etc.Field
operation indicated that these studies were successful.
Dr.D.S.Louie of Harza serves as consultant to the
Lakes -St.Lawrence Seaway Winter Navigation Board on the
of extension of winter navigation on its waterway system,
involves principally ice management.
Great
study
which
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -74-
...
...
Reservoir Operation Studies
The Phase II operation studies are discussed under Reservoir
Operations and System Generation Cost Studies,in Phase I.
TRANSMISSION SYSTEM
The Phase II transmission studies will deal,at the
feasibility level,with the transmission lines ~nd substations
associated with the initial Upper Susitna Pro:ect.This work
will consist primarily of the refinement of the s~udies made in
the basin planning study and discussed in th~t section.The
system is assumed for descriptive purposes,to co~sist of a route
from the initial project to a substation in the line between
Anchorage and Fairbanks and routes from the subst~tion to those
two load centers.
The route selection studies will be reviewed with particular
attention to foundation conditions and enviror~ental aspect.
Adjustments in the routes will be made as required.The
characteristics of the routes such as segment length,altitudes,
and climatic conditions will be defined more exactly,with
existing maps or specially prepared maps and field reconnaissance
as required.
The hydroelectric generator characteristics,the number of
units,and the system load and supply data will be defined for
each of the series of years to be studied.One of the important
functions of the Susitna transmission lines will be to serve as
an interconnection between the major load centers in the Railbelt
area as well as for the transmission of Susitna power to the two
load centers.Load flow studies will be m~de for various
conditions of system load and hydro and thermal generation and
for various alternative transmission line conf~gurations.The
costs and performance of these alternati~es,including
reliability and system reserve aspects,will be evaluated and an
economical program of transmission line development will be
selected.It may be noted here that one or the possibly
attractive development plans would have,as the iEitial project,
a relatively small project producing largely secondary energy.
The standards of transmission line reliability fo~such a project
need not be as high as for the later,well regul~ted development
with significant firm energy and dependable capacity,and
important economies could be realized.
Optional studies,which are not included in the Plan of
Study but which APA may want to move up from the design phase,
include:a study of system reactive requirements and resulting
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -75-
generator power factor requirements;trans~ent stability
calculations,to establish the range of values for the generators
moment of inertia;short circuit calculations to establish
circuit breaker interrupting ratings;and stucies of possible
sUb-synchronous resonance if series capacitors are to be used in
the transmission networks.
A construction schedule for the electrical facilities will
be prepared in CPM form.This schedule will provide for
completion of the transmission system,s"itchyards,and
substations to coincide with hydro-generation availability.
Other factors such as construction power an~usage of the
facilities for non-project purposes will be in cooperation with
the Alaska Power Authority and included in the sc~edule.
Detailed estimates of construction cost for ~he transmission
lines and substations will be prepared,generally at the same
level of detail as discussed for the hydroelectric project works,
under Construction Costs and Programs,and will follow the FERC
Uniform System of Accounts.The requirements of construction
access,environmental protection during construction,and
construction conditions in Alaska will be basic considerations in
the development of the construction program and cost estimate.
An estimate of annual operation and maintenance costs for the
lines and substations will be made,based on ind~stry data and
FERC guidelines,with adjustment for Alaskan conditions,and
discussions with the local utilities and the Alaska Power
Administration.
Single line diagrams,preliminary subs~ation layouts,
transmission line routing drawings,and descr~ptions of the
feasibility-level design of the transmission and substation
facilities will be prepared for use in the feasib~lity report and
FERC license application.
CONSTRUCTION COSTS AND PROGRAMS
Introduction
A series of cost estimates of selectee features and
alternative project schemes will be prepared during the
feasibility study.These estimates will be used for the
optimization of project features and the final se~ection of the
project elevation,capacities,and stages of development.These
estimates will be successive refinements of ~he preliminary
estimates in Phase I based on more specific designs,quantity
estimates,sources of materials,and knowledge of construction
conditions and access limitations.The cost estimates will
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -76-
follow the format established by the FERC Unirorm System of
Accounts.
The basic procedure will be as follows.Quantity estimates
will be made for each important item of civil construction,such
as excavation and fill of various types,reinrorcing steel,
penstock steel and steel liner plate,and concrete of various
types.
Constructibility Analysis
The project will be analyzed from the standpoint of
constructibility,with consideration given to access,location of
the construction plant,location of construction material
sources,types of construction equipment required,and overall
construction program.Seasonal considerations will be of
particular importance in the construction of the Susitna project,
and this aspect will be analyzed in detail.The construction
conditions on the Upper Susitna are characterized by severe
winter weather and the concentration of the period of high river
discharge during the short warm weather construction season.The
effects of these and other factors on productivity,equipment and
labor requirements,rates of production,and protection of the
work in progress against seasonal risks will be studied.
Seasonal labor and support requirements of the construction
program will be estimated.
Cost Estimates
The unit prices for all significant items of civil works
will be estimated by the contractor's cost method.The required
labor,equipment,supplies,'and rates of production will be
estimated on a basis consistent with the constructibility
analysis and the adopted construction schedule.These items will
be priced using the latest labor,equipment,and materials costs
based on prevailing conditions in Alaska or on U.S.or
international prices for equipment and materials with allowance
for shipping to the project site.Estimated mark-ups for the
contractor's indirect costs and profit will be added.The costs
of plant equipment will be based on available data and
experienced costs from other projects,with confirmation of the
most significant costs of major equipment by preliminary
quotations from representative manufacturers.
The direct cost estimates obtained on the preceding basis
will be increased by allowances for contingencies,engineering,
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -77-
and owner's overhead costs for the project on the basis of
previous experience,in consultation with APA.The estimates for
engineering costs will be supported by a detailed analysis of
the field ~nvestigations and design work which will be required,
based on the knowledge of site conditions developed during the
feasibility study,the types of structures called for in the
adapted initial project design,and the planned construction
schedule.The resulting construction cost estimate will be based
on the cost levels of a stated date.
Construction Schedule
The construction schedule will be based on detailed analyses
of the methods and procedures and required quantities for the
major features of the project,taking into account the aspects of
cold weather logistics,environmental constraints,materials
supply and control,manpower and equipment requirements and
availability,and the sequence of construction operations.A
network of proceaure relationships and time requirements,with
seasonal constraints,will be developed for the initial project
and analyzed by critial path methods and advanced network methods
to provide an estimate of the most probable construction period
and an indication of the probability or risk of shorter or longer
construction periods.
Expenditure Schedule and Escalation
An expenditure schedule will be developed from the
construction cost estimate and construction schedule subdivided
as necessary into expenditures by major category of engineering
effort and construction labor.materials and equipment.The
basic expenditure schedule will be in terms of the cost level as
of a stated date,the same as used in the construction cost
estimate.This expenditure schedule will then be adjusted to an
assumed calenaar schedule by application of assumed escalation
rates to provide an estimate of construction cost including
escalation for use in the financial analyses.This procedure
keeps the assumed rates of escalation clearly visible and permits
several assumed sets of escalation rates to be used conveniently
in sensitivity analyses.The estimated rates or escalation for
labor,equipment,and materials will be based in part on a
detailed analysis of historical rates of escalation.
In summary.the feasibility-level construction cost
estimate,the design and construction schedule and the
expenditure schedule will be developed on the common basis of
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -78-
-
detailed analysis of all particular aspects of the required
construction program.
POWER SYSTEM EXPANSION PROGRAMS
Alternative Expansion Plans
Two principal expansion plans will be developed to meet the
future power requirements of the Railbelt area,one with the
Susitna Project and the other without.The expansion plans will
be developed taking into account projected power demands,
construction lead times,possible interconnections between the
three power market areas (Anchorage,Fairbanks,and
Glennallen-Valdez),and FERC licensing requirements.The timing
of the generation and transmission additions will be established
so that there will be sufficient energy supply to meet the
forecasted demand including reserve requirements at all times.
The most probable load forecast will be used for the expansion
programs,but the sensitivity of the programs to the high and low
load forecasts also will be studied.
Outage Rates and Reserve Requirements
Plant outage rates will be estimated and system reserve
requirements will be established to provide an adequate and
continuous supply of power and energy.Infon4ation on outage
rates will be based on existing data obtained from local electric
utilities,and on reports on equipment availability such as the
Edison Electric Institute Publication N.75-50:"Report on
Equipment Availability for Ten-Year Period,1965-1974."
The alternative programs of power system expansion will be
analyzed by probability methods and the scheduled installation
dates will be adjusted so that in each year each expansion
program meets established criteria as to loss of load
probability.The loss of load probability criteria to be used
will be discussed with APA and the operating utilities.
For each expansion plan,tables will summarize the reserve
capacity requirements for future years.The reliability of the
transmission grid with or without interconnections between the
load centers wil~be evaluated as discussed in the section on
Transmission.
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -79-
Monthly Hydro Availability
The monthly power and energy available from the Susitna
Project will be determined on the basis of reservoir operation
studies discussed in Phase I,the section on Reservoir Operation
and Generation Cost Studies.Information on the production of
the Eklutna Project will be obtained from the Alaska Power
Authority.Projection data on the other existing hydropower
plant (Cooper Lake)will be obtained from Chugach Electric
Association Inc.
Expenditure Schedules
The construction cost expenditure schedules and annual
operation and maintenance expense costs for each plant addition
and transmission line addition will be obtained from the studies
described under Construction Costs and Programs,Alternative
Sources of Generation,and Transmission.Annual fuel costs by
calendar year will be estimated for each expansion program by
economic dispatch methods as discussed in the section on
Reservoir Operations and Generation Cost Studies in Phase I.
These series of construction,operation and maintenance,and fuel
~ost expenditures will be combined to obtain the annual
expenditure schedules required to meet the projected system loads
with each alternative power system expansion program.
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Criteria for Economic Analysis
The alternative powe~system expansion plans will be
evaluated on the basis of benefit-cost analysis.
In the analyses,"cost":will include all costs associated
with the development and operation of the hydroelectric projects;
"benefits"will be based on the alternative costs of producing
power and energy with alternative generation sQurces.The
benefit-cost ratios are computed using two methods:
(1)a normalized cost analysis based on the annual
cost of producing power and energy from the
hydroelectric projects and the other alternatives
at fixed price levels and
(2)a life-cycle evaluation based on the actual worth
of expenditures required for the initial
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -80-
construction of the projects and alternatives and
for their operation over their se~vice life as
defined in coordination with Alaska Power
Authority.
For the normalized cost analysis,the investment costs of
the hydroelectric projects and the alternatives,including
transmission lines,will be calculated.The annual revenue
required to cover the interest,amortization (or depreciation),
interim replacements,insurance,and taxes applicable to these
investment costs will be computed by applying a carrying charge
based on the type of project and the type of financing available.
Annual operation,maintenance,fuel (where applicable),and
adminstrative and general expenses will then be added to the
revenue requirements to determine the total annual costs for the
hydroelectric projects and the alternatives.The annual costs
will be divided into components corresponding to the values of
capacity and energy.
For the life-cycle analysis,the annual disbursements
required for construction,operation and maintenance,fuel and
adminstration of the project will be estimated for the years in
which they will be incurred.All costs except fuel will be at a
fixed price-level.Fuel is computed to escalate annually at 2
and 4 percent more than inflation.The annual disbursements will
be discounted to the beginning of the study perLod,at discount
rates corresponding to the financing available.Annual
expenditures will be estimated for the proposed plant life
period.At the end of that period the residual value of the
hydro project beyond that period will be included.
Under the normalized cost analysis,and the life cycle
evaluation,the benefit-cost ratios will be dete~ined from an
economic feasibility test where the interest rates are different
for hydro and other alternatives,and from a comparability test
where the interest rates are the same.Economic parameters such
as interest rates,pUblic or private financing,and plant service
life will be defined in coordination with Alaska Power Authority,
other government agencies,and the local utilities.
This methodology was used with success by Harza in the
economic evaluation of the Sutton,Bluestone and Summersville
hydropower projects for the Huntington District or the U.S.Army
Corps of Engineers.
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -81-
Expansion Program Cash Flow
For each proposed expansion program,annual cash flow
requirements will be computed on the basis of the useful life of
the program.These annual cash flows will be cooputed to cover
the cost of the invested capital and operation maintenance and
fuel costs determined as a result of the load dispatch studies.
Economic Analysis
The economic analysis will be performed to determine the
economic viability of each expansion program.Based on the
economic assumptions and criteria previously described.The
economic analysis will compare the costs including investment
costs,operation and maintenance costs,and fuel costs for each
expansion program.Tables will summarize these costs,and
present the benefit-cost ratio based on the economic criteria
previously defined.
Sensitivity Analysis
The sensitivity analysis will compare the effects of various
interest rates and differential rates of cost escalation.It
will also review the assumptions made on the investments,and
operation and maintenance costs of the generation sources.The
effects of the range in price forecasts will be analyzed.The
sensitivity of the cost comparison to different annual revenue
requirements will also be developed.
FINANCIAL ANALYSIS
Criteria for Financial Analysis
Determination of the number of years to recover the
investments for the hydroelectric projects and the alternatives
will be defined with Alaska Power Authority.The means of
financing the Susitna Project,and the alternatives will be
reviewed and determined.The interest rates of both state and
private financing that will be used in the financial analysis
will be determined in coordination with Alaska Power Authority,
government agencies,local electric utilities,and private
interest groups.
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -82-
Expansion Program Financial Requireme~ts
Tables will present the financial requirements for each
expansion program,with or without the Susitna Project.Public
or private financing,or a combination of both,w~ll be analyzed,
depending upon the expansion program.
Development and Analysis of Financing ?lans
All financing plans available for the development of the
Susitna Project or any other alternative will be reviewed and
rated.Contacts and meetings will be held w~th Alaska Power
Authority,government agencies,local electric utilities,and
private interest groups to obtain up to da~e data on their
financing abilities,and the related benefits and risks for them.
An analysis of the various plans will be performed.
Selection of Financing Plans
Among the various financing possibilities,the most
advantageous plans will be selected for each expcnsion program.
The selection will be based on the attractiveness of the plans,
and on the real capabilities of the financing agent to finance
the Susitna Project or any other alternative.
Final Payout and Financial Statements
A complete financial balance will be established for each
selected financial plan.A final analysis will be made of each
financing plan including borrowing requir~ments,revenue
requirements,and a description of the payment statements.
Analyses will be made of the sensitivity of ~hese results to
changes in costs and financing terms.
Institutional Analyses
The financial effect of the project on the local utilities
in the Railbelt area and their customers will be studied by means
of alternative financial analyses for the individual utilities
with the Susitna project and with the most favorable alternative
expansion program.
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -83-
Feasibility Report
A feasibility report will be prepared to document the
technical,and financial feasibility of the project;its safety;
and its environmental and social acceptability.The feasibility
report will consist of a main report and several Appendices.
The main report presents
recommendations for subsequent action
project and establish its physical,
soundness.
the conclusions,and
and will describe the
economic,and financial
-
Appendices will be prepared for the major disciplines:
a.Hydrology,River Hydraulics,and Sedimentation
b.Geology,Soil Mechanics,and Foundations
c.Preliminary Design and Cost Estimates
d.Power Operation Studies
e.Economics and Finance
f.Environmental Considerations
The Appendices will include sufficient info~ation to allow
experts in the various disciplines to substantiate the soundness
and accuracy of the conclusions and recommendations presented in
the main report.There will be sufficient basic data included to
establish project dimensions.The appendices will include
descriptions of the methods of investigations and analyses used.
PHASE III -FERC LICENSE APPLICATION
The preparation of an application for the Federal Energy
Regulatory Commission will constitute Phase III of the
engineering and environmental studies.The basic studies
required for the preparation of the license application will be
done in Phase II,and those studies will be planned from the
beginning to meet the requirements of the license application.
The preparation of the license application is planned to overlap
the final work on the feasibility report by about three months,
and it will begin at such time as APA decides,on the basis of
the feasibility stUdy reaching completion,to authorize the
preparation of the application.
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -84-
The requirements for preparation of the tec~nical exhibits
have been considered in the preparation of the Plan of Study.
Informal discussion with the FERC staff and ot~er appropriate
agencies will be initiated at the beginning of Phase I,and
continuing contact with these officials will be ma~ntained so the
study team will be aware of and deal with those it=ms of concern
to the FERC and other agencies regarding the license application.
Harza will be responsible for preparation or the technical
and environmental portions of the license application,sUbject to
APA review,and for the assembly of the complete application.
APA will be responsible for certain other eXhibits~as described
below,with assistance from Harza if requested.
The exhibits now required for an FERC lice~se application
are listed below,with a brief indication of their content and
the organization responsible.The environmental exhibits R,S,
V,and Ware listed in their present form,although we understand
that the FERC plans to combine them into a unified environmental
exhibit.
FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY COMMISSION
EXHIBITS FOR LICENSE APPLICATION
Exhibit
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K
L
M
N
o
R
S
T
Content
Charter and Articles of Incorporation
Minutes and Resolutions
State Hydroelectric,Water Power,
and Other Applicable Laws
Evidence of Applicant's Compliance
with State Laws
Ownership of Water Rights
Lands Owned or Planned to Be Used
Financial Ability of Applicant
Hydrology
Power
General Project Area Map
Detailed Project Area Map
Project Layouts and Description
Equipment
Cost Estimate
Schedule
Recreation
Fish and Wildlife
Statement Why Project Should Be
Primary
Responsibility
(APA)
(APA)
(APA)
(APA)
(APA)
(APA)
(APA)
(Harza)
(Harza)
(Harza)
(Harza)
(Harza)
(Harza)
(Harza)
(Harza)
(Harza)
(Harza)
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -85-
Exhibi t
u
v
w
Content
Developed by APA
Statement Showing the Manner in
Which Power and Energy Is To Be
Developed and Used
Natural,Historic,and Scenic Values
Environmental Quality
Primary
Responsibility
(APA
&:Harza)
(Harza)
(Harza)
(Harza)
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -86-
-
PART C
ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES
Brief summaries of the environmental work tasks have been
presented in Volume I.The following sections discuss each of
these tasks,explains the purpose and objectives of the tasks,
and provides information relative to anticipated timing.
As indicated in Volume I,the tasks are divided into six
areas of expertise:
Human Ecology (S)
Aquatic Ecology (A)
Terrestrial Ecology (T)
Historic and Archeologic Resources (H)
Recreation Resources (R)
Land Management and Aesthetics (V)
Human Ecology
The objectives of the Human Ecology studies are two-fold.
The first is to assist in the development of future electrical
load projections for the Railbelt Region of Alaska on the basis
of past consumer demand for electrical power by consumer group,
current energy consumption patterns,and expectations of future
energy consumptions patterns.These data,combined with
population projections for each consumer group and data derived
from the utilities in the market area,will be utilized to
project high,most likely,and low load demand forecasts for the
area.The second objective is to develop a time-series analysis
of significant sociocultural factors specifically of the
Matanuska-Susitna Borough,from earliest historic records to the
present.This information will permit a trend analysis of the
probable "without condition"and thereby permit evaluation of the
magnitude,intensity,and duration of human ecologic impacts of
the proposed project.
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -87-
Task S-l:Electrical Consumption Patterns
-
This task will consist of conducting a survey of significant
social and economic sectors which are broadly representative of
larger consumer groups in the Anchorage,Fairbanks,and
Glennallen-Valdez power market areas to identify present and
anticipated future electrical consumption patterns with and
without system expansion.
Estimation of future load projections will entail two
stages.First,past consumer demand for electrical power will be
studied in the Anchorage,Fairbanks,and Glennallen-Valdez power
market areas.In each area a survey of consumption patterns will
identify significant social and economic sectors which are
broadly representative of larger consumer groups in the area.In
addition,surveys of sUbsamples utilizing a stratified-cluster
sampling method and structured interview techniques will address
current energy consumption patterns,current expectations of
future energy consumption patterns without the project,and
propensity to consume electrical energy in the ruture with the
project.The result of these surveys will be a verification and
update of current consumption patterns without the project,and
expected changes in propensity to consume with the project.
Task S-2:Population Projections
This task will consist of developing independent population
projections for the power market region on the basis of available
secondary data and cohort-survival projection techniques.
The second stage of estimating future load demands will be
standard population projections for the market region utilizing
cohort-survival projection techniques.Secondary data available
from the US Department of Commerce,Bureau of Census,and the
Alaska Institute of Social and Economic Research,together with
State of Alaska vital statistics (mortality rate,birth rate,
fertility rate,infant death rate),will be sufficient.This
will give a good idea of the expected population increase,which
will permit projection of high,most likely and low load demands
for all goups of certain broad consumption patterns.
In order to verify this evaluation of future load demands,
the data on propensity to consume for the sample groups will be
matched to the broad sectors of the population which they
represent and any anomalies will be adjusted.In this way load
projections can be verified for population sectors,based on our
knowledge of the sector propensity to consume and the assumed
growth of that sector.This two stage approach will provide not
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -88-
only standardly derived load demand estimates,but also useful
data regarding current and expected use patterns for the public
information and participation process.
Task S-3:Socio-economic Characteristics
cultural
of the
of the
project
assessing social and
life-style goals
other portions
be impacted by
This task will consist of
values,economic conditions,and
inhabitants of Talkeetna and
Matanuska-Susitna Borough that may
construction.
Social and cultural values of the Matanuska-Sustina Borough
population will be assessed through an additional survey
utilizing unstructured and structured interview techniques and a
stratified-cluster sampling method.A combination of
self-administered questionnaires,received and returned by
respondence through the mail,and interview-administered
questionnaires will be used to control for bias.Sampling
errors,question format errors,and interview sequence errors
will be controlled by pretesting questionnaires,which will also
permit the training of interviewers in sensitivity to local
issues.
Information obtained will serve several uses.It will
provide knowledge of the diversity of perceptions of the history
of the region,its attractions,and its drawbacks,the nature of
contemporary problems of the residents,and their personal and
group aspirations for the future.Information from the
attitudinal surveys will also be used to project the impacts of
the proposed project upon Borough life styles.Finally,the data
will provide substantive and reliable indicators of public views
which in turn will make the design of the public participation
program responsive and relevant to Borough values.
Data from the Alaska Institute of Social and Economic
Research and the US Department of Commerce will be used to
analyze historic economic activity in the Borough,and to project
economic data to the year 2020.The following will be utilized:
employment and unemployment rates,occupational structure of
population by major economic sector,basic and non-basic
employment,per capita income,median income,income
distribution,and demographic data.These data will be combined
with the cohort-survival demographic projections (Task S-2)to
produce major industrial sector and non-industrial sector
economic projections of employment,income,and unemployment into
the future.The results will be utilized to evaluate economic
impacts of the project.
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -89-
Task s-4:Social Impacts
-
-
,-
This task will consist of calculating ~he magnitude,
intensity,and duration of project impacts on the human ecology
of the area.Special attention will be paid to unavoidable
impacts such as any displacement of people,changes in health,
safety,and social welfare conditions,changes in economic
activity,and changes in cultural values and life-styles.
Similarly,any irreversible or irretrievable comc~tment of human
resources stemming from the project will be detailed.
The objective is to measure the changes which can be
predicted as a result of the proposed project.The analysis will
have a dual focus:construction stage impacts and operation stage
impacts.Data from the preceding tasks will be used with only
minimal field verification.
Data on labor requirements for each year of the project's
life will be gathered including occupational levels and income
structure of the project work force and the characteristics and
availability of Alaskan workers.The propensity to consume
locally for workers of different skill levels will be projected.
Capital expenditures are expected to impact outside the Borough,
therefore most impacts on the Matanusha-Susitna Borough will stem
from the worker consumption and savings patterns.
Data on project characteristics will be cOEbined with data
from Phase I Basin Studies to calculate the magnitude,intensity,
and duration of impacts upon each of the following factors;labor
market,income distribution,commodity and factor market,housing
market,local commerce and industry,public services,public
costs (tax base,income tax,business tax,etc.),and cultural
and sub-cultural values.
Opening-up effects of road construction in the form of
increased settlement and colonization,increased land values,and
increased public costs will be examined.In addition,other
resources development projects in or near the region will be
considered together with the possibility that commercial and
planned unit residential developers would be stimulated to make
major investments in or near the project.
Data and analyses from Phase I Basin Studies and Phase II
Feasibility Studies will be incorporated under the following
headings into the FERC License Application:
1.Baseline Socioeconomic Conditions
2.Construction Phase Human Ecology Impacts
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -90-
3.Operation Phase Human Ecology Impacts
4.Actions to Minimize Adverse Impacts on Lire-Styles
5.Unavoidable Human Impacts
6.Irreversible and Irretrievable Commitoents of Human
Resources.
Aquatic Ecology
Due to the economic importance or many of the rreshwater and
estuarine species found in the general Susitna Project area,as
well as the expressed concerns of the State of Alaska Department
of Fish and Game and the U.S.Fish and Wildlife Service,aquatic
ecological impacts have been identified as being of critical
importance for the Susitna Project.The program presented below
is designed to be fully responsive to these concerns.The
detailed program,as presented,is scheduled and casted for the
27-month study period through completion and submission of the
environmental portion of the FERC License Application,but is
designed to be continued for the full five-year period advocated
by the Muslca Department of Fish and Game once the identified
project has been shown to be feasible.It is anticipated that
the overall levels of effort for the continuing studies will be
somewhat lower than the initial 27-month program,although in
some cases (e.g.anadromous fish,Cook Inlet studies)the level
of effort for individual tasks will be largely undiminished or
even increased.
Freshwater Studies
The overall objectives of the Susitna River basin studies
will be to characterize the existing freshwater ecological
populations and to identify,characterize and quantify the
critical habitats upon which these populations depend.
The specific tasks presented below are designed to:
Identify and map habitat types in the area of the
basin to be affected by the project;
Characteri~e the use of these habitat types (ie,
milling,spawning and incubation,rearing,
schooling areas etc.),
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -91-
Index these habitat areas by level or use;
As possible,select representative areas for each
habitat type for a number of reaches of the river
for more detailed study.
Based on this type of analysis,project-relcted changes in
the physical/chemical environment will then be superimposed on the
system,regardless of the actual project selected,and project
impacts clearly identified.
Upper Cook Inlet
Our general understanding about ecological processes in
North American estuaries has improved appreciably over the last
decade principally as a result of work along the east coast salt
marshes of the United States.Our overall knowledge of North
Pacific estuarine systems,however,remains scanty and is based
primarily on Canadian efforts within the Nanaioo and Fraser
Systems.Fortunately,certain similarities exist between these
river delta estuaries and the Susitna system,especially as in
regards their importance to marine resources,in particularly the
Pacific salmon species.
A fundamental problem in the Upper Cook Inlet is to evaluate
the effect of predicted physical and chemical alternations on
estuarine processes and the production of saL~on and other
commercial species.Juvenile salmon for example,way be linked
to the estuarine carbon pathway through the
plant-detritus-microbe consumer network.This would have
significant ramifications if most of the carbon for upper-level
organisms in the Upper Cook Inlet area is derived from river
input and not via in-situ autotropic (food producing)
heterotrophic production.
A good understanding of the life history characteristics of
the major biological components is required in order to determine
the links between commercially important species and estuarine
processes.If such direct links can be demonstrated,the impacts
of river regulation on estuarine autotrophs (which are strongly
influenced by water levels,flooding frequency,sediment
characteristics,salinity and nutrients)end estuarine
heterotrophs (influenced principally by dissolved organic matter,
temperature,and nuturients)are critical.However,if such
processes are shown not to be integrally related to fishery
production,then the importance of data gaps in this area is
dramatically reduced and costly field research can be scaled
down.
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -92-
Our approach will be to identify key ecological interactions
in the Upper Cook Inlet,identify areas of uncertainty,assess
the importance of these uncertainties vis a vis project
feasibility,develop precise studies to address alternate system
i~pacts and make evaluations based on supporting evidence and
areas of uncertainty.
Riverine Baseline Studies
Task A-I:Water Quality.Baseline water quality sampling
programs will be developed in close coordination with the
hydrology program and the instream flow studies.This
coordination will be particularly important during initial phases
of the study when monitoring stations are identified and sampling
frequencies determined.
A minimum of seven major sampling stations will be
established after preliminary analysis of the bcsin dynamics.
For major sampling stations on the mainstream river and
tributaries,initial sampling frequency will be twice per week
with a wide range of parameters.Both frequency and number of
parameters will be reduced over time for those cases where
variability is found to be low.
Where possible,remote monitoring equipment will be used.
Initial employment of such equipment will be limited to the use
of systems known to be reliable.As the study progresses and a
better understanding of field conditions (i.e.,opportunities and
problems)develops,efforts will be made to increase the use of
remote monitoring equipment where such equipment is shown to
provide reliable data and reduction in field costs.
In addition to long term water sampling at the identified
monitoring stations,numerous intensive sampling programs will be
carried out over shorter periods of time in conjunction with
specific aspects of the fisheries,instream flow and aquatic
modeling studies.These studies will be done using traditional
field equipment.
Parameters to be sampled initially at the long term
monitoring stations include:alkalinity,turbidity,
conductivity,suspended solids,pH,hardness,dissolved oxygen,
dissolved nitrogen-argon,calcium,sodium,magnesium,potassium,
sulfate,chloride,fluoride,silica,ammonia,nitrate,nitrite,
organic nitrogen,total nitrogen phosphate,total phosphorus,
carbon dioxide,total organic carbon,biological and chemical
oxygen demands,temperature,and other cations and anions as
required.
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -93-
Particular attention will be given to wa~er temperature
regimes and dissolved oxygen levels,as they are affected by ice
formation and accumulation both now in the free-flowing river,
and in the future following development of one or more
reservoirs..Specific water quality models sensitive to
short-term temporal variations,spatial variations,and
differences in ice thickness will be required in order to produce
results that are appropriate to the hydrological and
meterological conditions of the Susitna basin.
Task A-2:Physical Parameters.In addition to water
quality,physical parameters such as depth,current velocity,
bedload movement,and sedimentation determine aquatic habitat
quality.These parameters are in turn determined by water
quantity and seasonal flow regimes.Substrate type and particle
size are also dependent on flow regimes.
As work on invertebrates and resident and anadromous fish
populations progresses,critical habitat areas and areas of high
use or high productivity will be identified and their physical
parameters measured.This work,along with related engineering
hydrology studies,will be utilized as baseline data for
designing and implementing the instream flow studies as described
below.
Task A-3:Instream Flow Studies.Recent development of
instream flow programs for evaluating changes in flow regimes and
the effects of these changes on fish and wildlife uses by the
Cooperative Instream Flow Service Group,Department of the
Interior (USFWS)has provided a potentially valuable tool for
evaluating impacts of hydroelectric projects such as the Susitna
Project.Where such programs have been utilized successfully,
significantly improved impact analysis and mitigation development
has been possible.However,at present,application of this
methodology to conditions such as those found in Alaska has been
limited and the probable necessary refinements have not yet been
identified.
For these reasons a limited utilization of this methodology
is proposed,to begin in the second year of the 27-month study
period.As previously discussed,more traditional habitat
quality information will be collected during the first year and
will be utilized to refine the basic design of the instream flow
program.
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -94-
...
In order to apply instream flow methods,probability of use
curves for principal fish species will be required.Such curves
predict level of use from physical and chemical habitat
parameters.Development of these curves for the Susitna studies
will be based on existing published life history information.It
is anticipated that three or four study areas will be required to
calibrate and test these curves under field conditions.Two or
three of these sites will be on the mainstream river and one or
two on important tributaries.
Task A-4:Aquatic Vegetation.Principal aquatic plant
species will be identified and spatial-temporal distributions and
densities determined in those areas where such vegetation forms a
major component of the aquatic habitat for invertebrates and
fish.Principal habitat parameters determining aquatic plant
abundance and distribution,including existing flow conditions,
substrate type,depth,and turbidity,will be characterized for
such areas.Backwater slough salmonoidrearing areas will receive
special attention in these vegetation studies.
Task A-5:Invertebrates.Qualitative and quantitative
surveys of planktonic,nektonic,and benthic invertebrates will
be carried out in the mainstream river and important tributaries
and backwaters.Sampling methods will include Surber-type and
round samplers,drift nets,substrate baskets,and plankton tows
as appropriate.Species composition for different habitat types
(e.g.,riffle and backwater sloughs)will be determined,habitat
requirements and seasonal productivity or significant
invertebrate groups will be characterized,and areas of high
productivity will be identified.Quantitative sampling efforts
will be concentrated in those areas identified as important to
rearing of juvenile anadromous fish so that invertebrate
production levels can be correlated with rearing success of
juvenile salmonids and with water quality and physical habitat
parameters in those areas.
Invertebrate populations potentially important to resident
fish species will also be characterized as outlined above,but at
a lower level of effort.
Task A-6:Anadromous Fish.Upstream migrations of adults
will be characterized as to approximate number of migrants,
timing,and principal routes for each anadromous species
downstream of Devil Canyon.Juvenile migrations will be studies
to establish timing of migrations and to obtain,to the extent
possible,estimates of numbers of downstream migrants.Critical
habitat areas will be identified for each species,including
ex~sting and potential impediments to passage of migrants,adult
milling areas,spawning and incubation areas,and juvenile
rearing and schooling areas.Estimates of the numbers of fish
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -95-
using these areas at various stages or their l~re cycles will
made and used to calibrate the probability or use curves
discussed under the Instream Flow Studies task.The physical and
chemical parameters or these critical areas,described under the
Aquatic Habitat task descriptions,will then be measured so that
correlations with hydrological data can be made.These
correlations will provide a means or predicting errects on
anadromous rish stocks or with-project changes in the natural
river rlow and water quality regimes.
The geographical scope or this study must initially include
the entire mainstream river and all principal tributaries and
backwaters downstream or Devil Canyon.However,as the study
progresses and critical habitat areas are identiried,errort will
be concentrated in those areas.Certain speciric areas or each
particular type or critical habitat can then be selected as
representative or that type within a given reach or the river or
tributary so that intensive sampling can be carried out to
describe physical and chemical habitat parameters ~n detail.
Parent stocks in the river will be identiried using meristic
and other characteristics so that their contribution to the
commercial and sport risheries can be determined.
Field techniques which will be employed include traditional
nets,traps,electrorishing,mark and recapture,and catch per
unit errort methods.In addition,technologically based
approaches will be employed including biotelemetry,aerial
counts,and sonar counting installations.
The absolute abundance or migrating adults will be estimated
using sonar.The adult rish will be enumerated as they pass
upstream through a volume or water being hydroacoustically
sampled.Species composition will be estimated in conjunction
with radio tagging work.The sonar site will be located
downstream or the rirst major tributary or the Susitna River.
Sonar is proposed in prererence to other rish assessment
methods ror several reasons.The most important reason is that
its use requires signiricantly rewer assumptions concerning
sampling erriciency and selectivity ror the range or species or
interest than other methods,considerations that are very
important ir absolute rather than relative abundance estimates
are desired.Other considerations are the reasibility or high
temporal resolution or rish passage rate,realization or real
time instantaneous and cumulative abundance estimates,operating
costs competitive with other methods,and the ract that the high
turbidity or the Susitna River during periods or adult migration
prevents visual methods or rish counting,the method most
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -96-
commonly used to estimate absolute abundance of migrating adult
salmon in Alaska.
The distribution of adult anadromous fish in the watershed
will be estimated by radio tagging.Fish will be captured and
radio tagged at a site upstream of the sonar site.The passage
of radio tagged fish into major tributaries and their
distribution along the mainstream of the Susitna River will be
estimated based on the numbers passing unmanned radio monitoring
stations.Precise determination of the location of radio tagged
fish at any time during the migration period or on the spawning
grounds will be possible if necessary.
Radio tagging is proposed for this portion of the study
because the detection of radio tagged fish can be automated,
reducing costs and the probability of non-detection of tagged
fish without a loss in quality of data.Since the movements and
destination of radio tagged fish can be determined without
recapturing the fish,radio tagged fish return more information
than a larger number of fish tagged with passive tags.Other
methods of obtaining this data would require tagging much larger
numbers of fish and high labor costs.Statistically sufficient
numbers of tagged fish would have to be recaptured in the
trubutaries and mainstream of the Susitna River during the period
of active migration as well as later on in the spawning grounds.
Task A-7:Resident Fish.Studies to determine abundance,
seasonal distribution,movement,significant life history
requirements,and critical habitat areas of resident rish will be
carried out in the mainstream river,tributaries,and backwaters
both up and dovmstream of Devil Canyon.Below Devil Canyon this
work will be perrormed in conjunction with anadromous fish
studies and will,or course,include areas which may be important
to resident but not anadromous species.Studies above Devil
Canyon will extend upstream as rar as required to characterize
resident populations which could be arrected by development or
any combination of potential hydroelectric sites.Initially this
would require that upstream studies extend at least to the
conrluence of the MacLaren and Susitna Rivers.As selection or
damsites proceeds,it is anticipated that the geographical scope
or upstream studies will be substantially reduced.
Methods and goals ror this work task will be similar to
those outlined under the Anadromous rish task description,except
that use or biotelemetry and sonar systems is not anticipated
during the 27-month study period.
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -97-
Estuarine Baseline Studies
Task A-8:Water Quality and Quantity.A study program will
be developea-to monitor physical and chemical parameters in Upper
Cook Inlet and the influence of the Susitna River on estuarine
dynamics and nutrient levels.The initial phase of the program
will be devoted to selection of a limited number of monitoring
stations,test parameters,sampling frequencies and
methodologies.Special attention will be given to establishment
of both vertical and horizontal profiles of critical parameters
(including salinity,temperature,and nutrient levels)in order
to characterize time-dependent stratification and circulation
patterns.Concurrently,the influence of river flow,tidal
variation,and wind speed and direction on these patterns will be
investigated.This monitoring program will integrate remote
sensing techniques for estimating and mapping selected parameters
with field data measurements,where applicable.
Sea surface temperature maps of Alaska marine environments
derived from satellite data can be acquired within hours of image
production.Five years of data are available for the Gulf of
Alaska region.These maps,available from the National
Environmental Satellite Service of the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration,will be used to generate temperature
profiles for Upper Cook Inlet.
Similarly,data collected from both environmental and
meteorological satellites will be used to monitor sea ice
conditions in Upper Cook Inlet.Product types consist of
periodic ice movement,type,and concentration charts.Satellite
sensing of sea ice is done in portions of the spectrum not
affected by cloud cover.
Satellite and aircraft multispectral scanner (MSS)data will
be used in estimating and mapping water quality parameters in
Upper Cook Inlet,including turbidity,salinity,and
chlorophyll A concentrations.Parameter estimates will be made
using manual and computer-assisted techniques.
Turbidity in terms of suspended sediment distribution and
circulation will be mapped directly from the MSS ~agery.Tonal
differences in the green and red wave length bands serve as
indicators of varying concentrations of suspended sediment:light
tones correspond to high loads while dark tones correspond to
little or no load.Suspended sediment distributions in Cook
Inlet are characteristic of the fresh water intrusions.
Circulation patterns are clearly delineated,with the fresh water
showing up as lighter tones and the clear ocean water as dark
tones.
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -98-
Quantitative measurements of turbidity,chlorophyll ~
concentrations and salinity are derived through the digital
processing of MSS data.State-of-the-art techniques will be
utilized in the Upper Cook Inlet Study,where necessary.
Once estuarine dynamics have been characterized in
sufficient detail,data developed under the riverine water
quality and hydrology tasks,as well as remote sensing data,will
be used to determine the extent of the river's influence on the
estuarine system.
Task A-9:Fish.Under this task a sampling program will be
developed to delineate the importance of Upper Cook Inlet and the
river estuarine zone to Susitna River basin fish stocks.
Migratory stocks will be identified and correlations of migration
timing with river flows,water temperatures,and other parameters
studied.Adult milling areas will be identified.Temporal and
spatial availability of food organisms will be determined and
correlated with physical and chemical parameters in the estuarine
zone.Estimates of carrying capacity for juvenile fish will be
made on the basis of food organism availability.
Task A-lO:Invertebrates.Populations of commercially
important invertebrates (e.g.King,Dungeness and Tanner crabs,
Razor clams,shrimps)will be assessed as to population size,
location and seasonal characteristics principally through
existing data and spot sampling of commercial harvests.Stomach
analyses of selected fishes will be used to determine forage
importance.Limited field sampling (grabs and tows)will be used
to verify the above findings.
Task A-II:Commercial and Sport Fisheries.Both commerical
and sport sources of significant fishing harvest in Upper Cook
Inlet,and other areas as necessary,will be identified.
Commercial yields and economic values for each species will be
estimated on the basis of landing statistics for each commercial
gear type.Sport fishing catches and effort will be estimated
from creel type censuses and the value estimate will reflect
recreational economic value.
To the extent that Susitna stocks can be distinguished from
other stocks in the commercial and sport catches,their
contribution to the catch will be determined.A program of study
will be designed to investigate potential identification methods,
including various marking techniques,scale,otolith,and other
meristic analyses,and biochemical methods such as enzyme
electrophoresis.
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -99-
Assessment and Mitigation
Task A-12:Limiting Factors.Baseline data on the physical
and chemical parameters and biological components of the various
types of fish habitat will be integrated so that food webs,
energy dynamics,and habitat/fish population rela~ionships can be
analyzed.This integration and analysis will lead to the
identification of habitat factors which limit fish population
sizes.Such factors may include low levels of certain nutrients
which limit production of fish food organisms,scarcity of
various types of critical physical habitat (suitable spawning and
incubation gravels,for example),or hydrological parameters such
as flow,bed load,and suspended sediments which limit survival
of eggs and juvenile fish..
Critical
characterized
the Susitna
any of the
considered.
habitat and other limiting f~ctors will be
for each important fish species for those areas of
basin and estuarine zone which woul~be affected by
hydroelectric development alte~natives being
Task A-13:Impacts of Alternatives.Ant~cipated changes
in,or losses of,fish habitat will be determined for alternative
concepts for each project system component ~ype,including
damsites,pool levels,operational regimes,access road and
transmission line routings,and construction schedules and
procedures.Based on these anticipated habitat changes and on
the integrated baseline data on habitat/fish population
relationships described previously,project icpacts on fish
populations will be determined.Analysis of project related
changes in limiting habitat factors will play e key role in
establishing the magnitude of these impacts and their resultant
economic effects.
Task A-14:Evaluation of Alternatives.Once the types and
magnitudes of impacts associated with alterr-ative project
components have been delineated,various combinations of
components in alternative project systems will be compared for
purposes of reducing number and/or severity of ~pacts.During
this comparison process the initial concepts for some components
may be modified in order to reduce impacts,and component
concepts with unacceptably severe impacts will be excluded from
further consideration.Iteration of this process of component
impact assessment,combination of components into project
systems,identification of cumulative systec impacts,and
modification of components to reduce system impacts,will yield a
small number of system concepts from which tr-e final project
development scheme can be selected.
11-100 8 sept.1979 -100-
Task A-15:Mitigation Measures.Selection of a final,
smallest-impact,project development scheme based on the
procedure described above will be followed by formulation of
recommendations for reduction of those adverse impacts which are
unavoidable.Such recommendations may deal with construction
scheduling and methods,detailed design criteria for particular
civil works (e.g.,multilevel intake,intake screening),and
fine-tuning of project operation (e.g.,timing of flow releases
during especially critical periods for anadromous fish).
Reports and License Application
Task A-16:Reports.Close cooperation will be maintained
with the Alaska Department of Fish and Game and other appropriate
state and federal fisheries and water quality agencies throughout
the aquatic studies.Drafts of the reports summarizing results
of the baseline aquatic studies,impact assessment,and
recommended mitigation measures will be prepared and submitted to
APA and these agencies for their comment.These agency-reviewed
reports will then be incorporated in appropriate format into the
license application for submittal to the FERC.
The critical relationships between wildlife and habitat are
important considerations in the environmental feasibility
analysis of the Susitna Project.Studies conducted to date by
the Alaska Department of Fish &Game and the U.S.Fish and
Wildlife Service have identified potential impacts on several
wildlife species that either reside in the project area,use the
area for migration or other seasonal purposes,or use habitat
downstream which may be altered by changes in river flows.The
studies we propose to undertake as part of this POS concentrate
in the areas of habitat analysis,big game,and non-game species
and fur bearers.The complex inter-relationships within and
among these aspects will be analyzed to the extent that they will
affect,or be affected by,project identification,construction,
and/or operation.
The diversity of game and non-game species in the Susitna
Basin and the need for expertise totally familiar with Alaskan
conditions essentially dictates that the proposed long-term
studies be performed by specialists from the Alaska Department of
Fish and Game (ADF&G),the University of Alaska,or consultants
with many years of applicable Alaskan experience.Harza's
biologists have identified highly qualified groups and
individuals meeting these criteria to conduct the proposed
studies.In addition,since potential impacts on moose and
caribou appear to be one of the key issues identified by the
studies conducted to date,we propose to utilize the services of
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -101-
an outside consultant,with extensive experience with Alaskan
ungulate populations,proposed work programs for cdequacy and to
periodically review and comment on the results of the
investigations and impact analyses so that they may be maintained.
at the highest possible level.
Terrestrial Ecology
Throughout the course of the study,Harza's terrestrial and
wildlife biologists will closely monitor study progress to ensure
that end results will be usable,communicate and interpret
interim and final conclusions for planning and design engineers,
and integrate individual program results into the comprehensive
environmental report required for completion of the Feasibility
Study and for submission as one portion of the FERC License
Application.Harza's wildlife biologists will work closely,not
only with study participants,but also with ADF&G and U.S.Fish
and Wildlife personnel to assure that investigation programs and
information derived therefrom are adequate to meet the needs of
the project and are consistent with established local and
regional long-term wildlife management objectives.
The following individual work tasks have been developed as
an integrated program to supplement the available baseline
information,undertake the detailed biological studies needed to
fully assess project impacts on terrestrial resources,provide a
basis for programs for minimizing or mitigating adverse impacts,
and prepare a comprehensive report on the relationship between
the project and eXisting and future terrestrial resources of the
area.
Task T-l:Vegetation Mapping.The objectives of the
vegetation mapping task is threefold:1)Identify and describe
vegetation and habitat types within and adjacent to proposed
impoundment areas,along transmission corridors,and along the
downstream floodplain,2)Determine importance or habitat type,
and individual components thereof,for moose and other key
wildlife species,and 3)Determine effects and extent of
project-induced habitat alterations.
Vegetation maps of most of the requisite areas have been
prepared as parts of broader,multidisciplinary studies
cooperatively being conducted by State (DNR)and federal (BLM,
SCS,NASA)agencies and the Geophysical Institute of the
University of Alaska for the Denali Planning Unit Remote Sensing
Project and the Susitna River Basin Comprehensive Study.These
maps were prepared from aerial photographs and LANDSAT imagery
and those of the Denali Planning Unit were checked by stratified
field sampling during August 1979.Analytical techniques,
vegetation mapping units,area of coverage,and reporting formats
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -102-
for these habitat mapping programs will be critically reviewed in
order to develop a unified vegetation classification and mapping
system responsive to the needs of the Susitna Project
environmental studies.Data gaps and inconsistencies will be
identified and resolved so as to provide habitat classifications
and base maps that can be utilized for most of the other
terrestrial studies.
Task T-2:Wetlands.This'task consists of identifying
type,distribution,and major species composition of wetlands in
the study area.Section 404 of the Clean Water Act and Executive
Orders 11988 and 11990 require special consideration of wetlands
and floodplains in assessing the impacts of proposed activities
which may alter or destroy wetlands.Results of this task will
be utilized in the evaluation of alternative development schemes.
Extensive impacts on wetlands could make a given alternative less
environmentally desirable.
Most of the information needed for this task will be derived
from the Vegetation Mapping Program.(Task T-1).During field
checking in that task,particular attention will be paid to
wetland areas.During the feasibility level investigations of
the initial project,any wetlands in the areas to be affected
will be studied in greater detail to identify the magnitude and
significance of resultant impacts.
This task will be closely linked to the Vegetation Mapping
Program and initial work will be done simultaneously.Impacts of
the selected project will be considered during the 1981 summer
season.
Task T-3:Riparian Habitat.This task consists of
characterizing interrelationships between maintenance of
willow/moose habitat in the downstream floodplain and seasonal
flooding characteristics.Riparian willow vegetation provides
critical winter moose habitat.Alterations in the flows released
from the project may result in-changes in riparian vegetation and
thus a reduction in moose habitat and moose populations.
Understanding of the sensitivity of these relationships will be
required for the evaluation of impacts and the formulation of
mitigation and management practices.Differential flood
tolerances of willow,spruce and other species important to the
maintenance of good moose habitat will be determined from
literature reviews and correlation of existing habitat conditions
(vegetation successional stages)at different elevations with
historic flood flow records.Frequency of recurrence,duration,
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -103-
and magnitude of high flows required to maintain desired riparian
vegetation characteristics will be determined in cooperation with
project hydrologists.Effects of altered flow regimes on key
plant species (as identified in wildlife studies)will be
determined in cooperation with personnel working on studies
related to vegetation and habitat analyses,habitat requirements
by game and non-game species,and in-stream flow requirements he
will determine Any areas where substantial vegetation changes
might be expected will also be mapped.
This work will be performed during the 1981 summer season,
after likely ranges in project outflows have been determined.
Depending on the results of this task,additional work may be
required in subsequent years.If so,it would be conducted as
one aspect of the on-going big game management studies discussed
elsewhere.
Task T-4:Non-game Animals.This task consists of
determining distribution and abundance of non-game vertebrate
species in the study area.Almost nothing is known of the birds
and small mammals (non-game and furbearers)of the project area.
This information will have to be obtained for the license
application and discussion of project impacts.Extensive studies
of species distribution and population levels in the area will
provide data for comparisons with the fauna of better known
comparable areas of Alaska and will provide indications of
unexpected species or concentrations of species if such are
present.The extensive study,up to approximately five miles
back from the river,will also provide natural history and other
data on species not found in the habitats of the intensive study
sites.
The intensive study sites in upland and wetland habitats
will provide data on bird and small mammal species composition
and density in each of the most extensive habitats of the region,
providing,among other things,an indication of habitat
uniqueness and productivity.These intensive sites will provide
data that can be extrapolated to similar habitats throughout the
upper basin and will provide a basis for predicting faunal
changes based on habitat changes caused by project alterations,
including changes in water level.
A survey of the avifauna of the upper Susitna River basin
will be conducted within an approximate five-mile band on either
side of the river,from Gold Creek to the Denali Highway with
more or less continuous observations from mid-April to
mid-October and at least one mid-winter period or observation.
All habitats of the region will be visited on a regular basis
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -104-
throughout the migration and summer period and all birds seen or
heard will be recorded,along with other pertinent field data.
Particular attention will be paid to long-lived species,those
that are particularly sensitive to human disturbance,those
subject to hunting pressure,and any endangered species (raptors,
cranes,swans,grouse and ptarmigan,etc.).Incidental sightings
of mammalian species will also be recorded.Two aerial surveys
will be made each year to search for evidence of large nesting
raptors (osprey,bald and golden eagles,peregrine,and
gyrfalcon).Aerial surveys of waterfowl will be conducted over
wetland areas periodically throughout the migration and summer
seasons.Comparable aerial surveys will be conducted over
alternative transmission alignments once they have been
identified.
Square 10-hectare census plots will be established on sites
of uniform conditions within each of the major terrestrial
habitats in the vicinity of the proposed dam sites.During the
breeding season,7-9 censuses will be conducted on each plot
using a modification of the territory mapping method.One or two
censuses will be conducted during the winter months.Vegetative
characteristics of each plot will be determined using the
point-centered quarter method with modifications to include
sampling of ground cover and shrub vegetation.
Trapline transects will be established in the census plots
to census the smallest mammals (shrews,voles,and mices).One
late-spring early-summer,one fall,and one winter census will be
conducted for each of three or four years on each of the habitat
plots.More general methods (sightings and sign)will be
utilized to quantify the presence of larger mammalian species in
the area.
Task T-5:Big Game.This task consists of identifying big
game abundance,habitat utilization,movements,and species
composition.Impacts of the project on moose,caribou,bear,
wolf,and wolverine are major concerns of ADF&G.Extensive
programs utilizing aerial census surveys and radio-tracking of
marked individuals will provide an understanding of the
populations of these species using the project area and subject
to project impacts.This information,combined with data on
habitat conditions derived from Tasks T-1 and T-4,will provide a
basis for predicting the magnitude of anticipated impacts and for
developing appropriate mitigation programs.
Some of the moose that were marked with radio-collars in
1976 and 1977 are still emitting radio signals.Movements of
these individuals,and others that will be similarly collared
(including all big game species noted above)will be monitored in
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -105-
much the same manner as was done in the previous ADF&G
investigations.
Systematic aerial surveys will be conducted approximately
monthly to record the location,activity,species,age,and sex
of all individuals seen.Initially,flight lines at
approximately one mile (moderate intensity)intervals will be
flown to cover the Susitna River from Talketna to the glaciers
and the lower portions of the major tributaries.The coverage
pattern will include areas within ten miles of the river or less
than 3500 feet in elevation,whichever produces the narrower
band.These surveys will commence in February on r~arch 1980 and
will continue until October 1981.Seasonal distribution maps
will be prepared showing areas of prime importance to big game.
Results of these studies will be correlated with studies of
"observability"in different habitats.From this information,
estimates of use of different habitats by different species will
be determined.
Results of these aerial censuses will also be utilized to
finalize the radio-tracking aspects of these investigations.
Rather than applying radio-collars to animals throughout the
Upper Basin,efforts will be concentrated in those portions to be
affected by the initial project.Although some individuals may
be collared during March 1980 in the Devil Canyon to Vee Damsite
reach of the river,the major thrust at collaring individuals
will occur in August to October 1980.Analyses will be made of
the data from the aerial censuses to determine the minimum
numbers of each species that should be tracked in order to
adequately determine the habits and habitat requirements of each
species utilizing the immediate project area during some portion
of the year.Collars will also be placed on animals in
downstream areas that may be affected by alterations in project
outflow,but this will be delayed for approximately one year
while determinations are made as to the relative extent of flow
and habitat alterations that may reasonably be expected following
project completion.
Each radio-collared animal will be located regularly (at
least monthly).For each relocation,the exact location,habitat
type,activity,and association with other animals will be
recorded.More intensive monitoring flights will be made during
the periods of precalving and postcalving movements and winter
shift to determine present migration routes and the timing of
migration.Results of radiotracking flights will be compared
with visual censusing flights to determine the percentage of each
species normally seen by visual censusing.
Although these programs will be initiated shortly after
authorization to begin work on the Susitna Project,it will be
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -106-
...
...
...
necessary that they continue for an additional one to three years
following submittal of the license application.Anticipated
impacts will be identified prior to license subm~ttal,but the
sUbsequent time will be required to obtain sufficient information
to form a reliable basis for management programs during and
following project construction.One aspect of these management
programs will likely include mitigation measures to minimize
identified impacts and these measures will have to be identified
and evaluated as part of the continuing big game studies.
History and Archeology
FERC regulations,as well as state and federal law,require
that the applicant provide a report on the historical and
archeological resources in the project area and the impact of the
project on those resources.The report must be prepared in
consultation with the State Historic Preservation Officer and the
U.S.Heritage Conservation and Recreation Service.
A review of literature directly related to the history and
prehistory of the study area,as found in the Alaska Heritage
Resource Survey,and various pUblished and unpublished reports,
indicates that six prehistoric and thirteen historic sites have
been recorded within the study area.The apparent paucity of
sites in this area may be attributed to the fact that only
limited archeological research has been carried out.In
surrounding areas where archeological research has been more
intensive,the number of sites documented is considerably higher •
Because of the minimal quantity of data available on the
cultural resources within the study area,the reconnaissance and
intensive surveys developed for this study are of paramount
importance in identifying cultural resources and providing the
appropriate recommendations as required by law.These tasks
include,at a minimum:(1)Identification and documentation of
cultural resources within project areas to be impacted,and (2)a
description of any measures recommended for the purpose of
locating,identifying,and salvaging historical or archeological
resources that would be affected by the project,together with a
statement of the applicant's position regarding the acceptability
of the recommendations and proposed programs for their
implementation.
The proposed historic preservation efforts should be
conceptually divided into (1)the effort necessary to obtain the
license,(2)effort necessary to mitigate possible adverse
effects during the course of the study essential to obtain the
license,and (3)effort necessary to mitigate damage to all
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -107-
historic and prehistoric sites that will be impacted by the
construction phase.
Task H-1:Office Preparation_
This task consists of conducting literature reviews,
developing a specific research design and sampling strategy,and
obtaining necessary permits.These are basic tasks needed for
implementation of the history and archeology program.If not
done in a timely manner,other project investigation tasks (e.g.
geologic exploration)may be delayed.The study area for this
initial task is defined to include three related but
geographically distinct locations:a)Susitna River from Gold
Creek upstream to Tyone Creek-five miles either side of the
river;b)Susitna River downstream from Gold Creek to Cook Inlet
to an elevation 100 ft above the floodplain or five miles either
side (whichever is less);and c)alternative transmission
corridors between Anchorage-Fairbanks and the development site as
shown on Figure C-1.
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -108-
Figure C-l
.5
75 100 125
A.PA·~rch 1975
50
AL TERNATIVE
TRANSMISSION.CORRIDORS
•Scale in miles
o
Nenana-)
109
Prior to initiating field investigations during the summer
of 1980,the archeologist consultant,possibly the University of
Alaska Museum,will execute the following tasks:
1 )Apply for,and secure a Federal Antiquities Permit and
any state documents that may be necessary for the
archeological portion of the project.(Office of
Archeology and Historic Preservation,Interagency
Services Division,National Park Services,U.S.
Department of the Interior,Washington,D.C.20240;
State Archeologist's Office,State of Alaska,
Department of Natural Resources,State Division of
Parks,Anchorage Alaska).
3)
2)Conduct an exhaustive literature review of available
documents that pertain to the history,prehistory,
ethnography,geology,flora,fauna,and late
Pleistocene and Holocene geology of the areas covered
by this project.Museum staff will utilize the
resources of the University of Alaska Library and
Archives,data files of the University Museum,and
records at the State Office of History and Archeology.
Consultation with other professionals who have worked
in or have knowledge of the study areas will be
utilized as necessary.
The results of the literature search will be used to
synthesize the regional and local cultural chronology
of the study area as well as to provide the basis for
the research design.
4)Air photos of the study area will be examined and their
interpretation will focus on the identification of
probable areas containing cultural resources.
sites will be plotted
resource will be
preliminary aerial
will be conducted.
5)Known historic and archeological
on 1:63,360 scale maps.Each
specifically identified.A
reconnaissance of the project area
6)Utilizing the information base produced by the above
research,a research design will be developed to
include a sound professional sampling strategy
specifically designed for the unique needs of this
project.
7)Following formulation of the research design and
sampling designs,the Principal Investigator and
Project Supervisor will recruit essential personnel for
the field portion of this project.
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -110-
It is estimated that these prefield-season tasks will take
approximately five months.Upon completion of the prefield
tasks,the necessary personnel and data base will be utilized for
the reconnaissance level survey,and mitigation of adverse
effects on cultural resources which may possibly occur as a
result of the licensing study activities.
Task H-2:Reconnaissance Surveys.
-
-
This task consists of conducting a reconnaissance level
archeological survey of portions of the.area covered in Task H-l
based on priorities determined by project planning activities.
Highest priorities for field archeological studies will be given
to those areas to be disturbed by activities essential to meet
licensing requirements (e.g.,camps,test holes,access
facilities,etc.).Within the areas selected for field
reconnaissance,crews will implement surface and subsurface
sampling procedures in order to locate,document,and inventory
historic and prehistoric sites that may occur in the area to be
affected by the project.Results from these surveys will be
utilized in evaluation of alternative developments and in
planning of the selected initial project so as to minimize
impacts.
As it is not the intent of a reconnaissance level survey to
cover 100%of the study area,preselected areas identified in
Task H-1 will be selected for survey.Within these areas field
crews will implement surface and subsurface testing procedures in
order to locate,document,and inventory historic and prehistoric
sites that may occur in the study area.This site specific data
will be used to develop and direct subsequent work in areas
identified as being specifically impacted by project activities
(e.g.areas,construction,inundation).
Available aerial photographs,as well as LANDSAT photos,
will be reviewed for all preselected areas in order to aid in
locating potential site areas.Aerial reconnaissance will also
be conducted at the preselected areas in order to enhance site
location during this task.
If,on the basis of information from Tasks H-1 and H-2,
extensive areas of high historic or archeologic significance are
located,these areas may justify avoidance in the selection of
the ultimate project development site.Otherwise data derived
from this task will be included in the matrix evaluation of
in-basin alternatives.
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -111-
...
During this phase of the overall study,as well as during
the second or feasibility phase,every effort will be made to
work with other professionals involved in the project,to see
that the archeological survey is conducted early in each area
that may be disturbed as a result of the investigations required
for project investigation and licensing.If any archeological
sites are found during the course of the survey in areas slated
for subsurface disturbance during predam construction,it will be
necessary to undertake immediate mitigating measures.Where
feasible (e.g.temporary camp locations)such activities will be
relocated away from the sensitive areas.
Task H-3:Detailed Field Surveys.
This task consists of conducting more intensive surveys in
construction zones of the identified initial project so as to
provide information necessary to delineate mitigation measures.
Each identified archeological or historic site will be evaluated
and recommendations made as to required mitigating measures.On
the basis of this work,a final report will be prepared in
accordance with state and federal regulations documenting the
sites identified and a mitigation comment or recommendation for
each.
This task consists of intensive testing of sites located
during the reconnaissance survey (Task H-2)of the project area.
Only sites located in areas specifically impacted by the selected
initial project will be considered.A grid will be made of each
site and a sampling scheme applied for testing.Each square
selected for test excavation will be systematically excavated and
all artifacts and features recorded,using standard archeological
field methods.Site maps and soil profiles will also be
prepared.Photographs will be taken to document artifacts and
features in-situ as well as to document the site and its
location.Horizontal and vertical site limits will be delineated
and data will be recovered for analysis and evaluation.Based on
the analysis of this material,National Register criteria will be
applied to see if the site is eligible for inclusion in the
National Register of Historic Places as specified in the federal
regulations that apply to this project.
Intensive testing will also prOVide the means for evaluating
the effects of the preconstruction and construction phases of the
Susitna Hydropower Project on cultural resources.Each site will
be evaluated and recommendations as to mitigating measures will
be made and incorporated into the FERC License Application.
Field crews,teams consisting of three archeologists,will focus
efforts on the dam sites,impoundment areas,access roads,
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -112-
staging areas,camps,borrow pits,etc.,of the
project(s).
Task H-4:Transmission Corridors
selected
...
...
This task consists of conducting a reconncissance level
field archeological survey of alternative transmission corridors
identified to service the selected project(s).This task will be
comparable to Task H-2 in terms of level of intensity and
techniques.Data from this task will be evaluated during the
selection of probable transmission alignments.Following
selection of final alignment,a more detailed survey similar to
Task H-3 will be conducted •
Task H-5:Report
This task consists of preparing an overall report on the
historical and archeological resources of the project area based
on the research that has been conducted.This task entails
compilation of the individual reports for the other phases of the
archeological study as well as synthesizes all data recovered and
makes appropriate recommendations for mitigation,if necessary.
The task is specifically aimed at the final analysis of the
project in terms of sites located and documented during the other
phases.The final report will include the general location,
description,and·a mitigation recommendation for each site
reported during previous tasks.
In order to protect archeological sites from disruption by
amateur collectors and those seeking artifacts for sale or
personal collections,the actual location of each site will be
omitted from the report.In keeping with the prevailing practice
for such surveys,sites will be designated by numbers and the
reader informed that qualified individuals may obtain further
information from those conducting the study,or from the Office
of the State Archeologist.
The report will include mitigation recommendations,if
necessary,for the sites located,and estimated budget for
archeological excavation that must be done prior to the start of
actual construction of the hydropower project as specified by
federal and state regulations.The overall effectiveness of the
research design,field procedures,and analysis will be
discussed •
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -113-
Recreation Resources
The objectives of the Recreation Resources Study are to
inventory and evaluate the recreation resources within the
Susitna Basin for the purpose of assessing the impacts that
hydroelectric development might have on them,and to determine
the need for,and the types of additional recreational facilities
that could be associated with Susitna hydroelectric development.
This work will be responsive to the FERC requirements for a
report on recreation resources.The report will be developed in
consultation with the Division of Parks of the Alaska Department
of Natural Resources,the Matanuska-Susitna Borough Planning
Department,the U.S.Heritage Conservation and Recreation Service
and other local,state and federal agencies.
Most information will be obtained from federal and state
agencies as well as from local communities.Through contact with
these agencies it will be determined if any long-range studies or
surveys need to be conducted.Most data concerns will
concentrate on the following:
1)Recreation Resources and Facilities
2)Recreation Demand/Need..-
3)Visitor Use Data
4)Socioeconomic Data
5)Land Use Data
There will be close coordination with other studies being
done,primarily fish &wildlife and socieoeconomic,to ensure
incorporation of their results into the recreation assessment.
Task R-1:Existing Resources
This task consists of identifying and describing existing
recreation resources and facilities in the Railbelt Area and
evaluating recreation resource potential and demand within the
Susitna Basin.Existing resources will be mapped in relation to
population centers and travel routes.Much of this work will be
done through review of previous studies and close coordination
with state and local agencies.Study of the basin's
opportunities and constraints for recreation activities will be
done on the basis of such factors as physical site qualities,
access,and population pressure.In this way the basin's
opportunities and constraints for recreation act~vities can be
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -114-
shown.Likewise,demand potential will -be evaluated by def ining
the basin's market area,socieoeconomic characteristics,
accessibility,and seasonal availability.Close coordination
with the Alaska State Division of Parks will be required at this
point.Impacts resulting from various alternative development
schemes on the existing and potential recreation resources willi
be assessed.Certain features would enhance recreation potential
while others would degrade that potential by destroying the
resource.Still other features,while not degrading the
recreation potential,change it from a low-impact use potential
to a high-impact use potential.These conditions will be
described and mapped for report and display purposes.
It will be important at this time to provide inputs to the
public information and participation program in order to inform
the public and gain information on preferences for recreation
types.Public response will provide an indication of the
magnitude of potential impacts of potential project alternatives
and information on recreation demand and for various types of
recreational opportunities that might be incorporated into a
recreation plan for the initial project.
Task R-2:Impacts
This task consists of assessing recreational impacts
resulting from the selected initial project and developing a
recreation plan for public utilization of project lands and
waters.The recreation impact assessment will be structured
around the identified project facilities and operations and
compared to the existing conditions.The projected beneficial
and/or adverse impacts of the project will be expressed in terms
of physical effects on recreation resources as well as on visitor
use.The latter will be further defined in terms of recreation
carrying capacities as well as realistic estimates of use levels.
Upon identification and evaluation of the impacts on
recreation resources,measures will be developed to enhance
beneficial and/or mitigate adverse impacts.This will be done
primarily through the development of a recreation plan which will
be developed according to projections of recreation demand and
visitor use.Field work will be necessary at this time to insure
that the design is sensitive to the site's potentials and
constraints.
The final recreation plan will be developed in cooperation
with APA,the State Division of Parks and the Matanuska-Susitna
Borough to enhance beneficial and/or mitigate adverse impacts.
Initial and ultimate visitor use for the recreation plan-will be
11-100 B Sept.1979 -115-
estimated based on activity design standards,total capacity,
turnover rates,and seasonality in order to provide a base for
economic comparison.Identified costs will include development
costs,operation travel costs and maintenance.
The inventories and analyses of recreation resources
identified in the feasibility study will be summarized in maps,
text,and charts con~istent with the format established for
theFERC License Application.The report will primarily respond
to the necessity of providing pUblic utilization of project
waters and adjacent lands for recreational purposes.It will
also include documentation of the nature and extent of
consultation and cooperation with federal,state and local
agencies.
Land Management and Aesthetics
The FERC requires that a report be prepared on the
management of land within the proposed project boundary and the
protection of the scenic values of the project area.The report
will be prepared following consultation with local and state
zoning and land management authorities and federal agencies with
managerial authority.At the present time the land is under the
jurisdiction of BLM.It is anticipated,however,that in the
near future title may be transferred to the native village
corporations of the Cook Inlet Region,Inc.Throughout the
course of all planning activities,we will maintain close
contract with both organizations to ensure that all needs and
requirements are met.
Task V-I:Existing Resources.
This task consists of making inventory and evaluating the
natural and scenic resources of potentially impacted areas of the
Susitna River basin for the purpose of comparing alternative
development programs.All resources which contribute to the
wildland character of the area will be identified and mapped in
cooperation with other ongoing resource inventory tasks.These
resources include such categories as rare or endemic species,
wildlife migratory routes,unique plant communities,outstanding
lakes and waterfalls,and glaciers.Investigation of topographic
maps,aerial photography and interviews with local agencies and
citizens will facilitate this task.A follow-up ground survey
will be conducted to verify the location of these resources.
Reference to information derived from the History and Archeology
...11-100 8 Sept.1979 -116-
studies will further enhance the usefulness of the mapping of
aesthetic resources.
The identification of scenic resources actually deals with
three related factors:1)Classification of the area into
landscape types and variety classes;2)Unique scarce and fragile
visual resource sites;and 3)Viewer sensitivity.These
resources will be identified through reference to published
material and from extensive photographic records obtained during
field reconnaissance.The foundation for most of the scenic
evaluation at this step is based on the U.S.Forest Service
Visual Resource Management System.The scenic resources will be
mapped on an overlay for use in subsequent analyses.
Before evaluation and comparison of impacts of potential
alternative developments,an overlay will be developed showing
mitigation potential and future land use.Some landscape types
lend themselves to mitigation measures more readily than others,
therefore each landscape type identified should be rated as to
the probability of success and appropriateness of such"efforts.
In addition a future change in land use can drastically change
the character of a landscape setting and therefore is an
important consideration in the siting of project facilities.
By combining these overlays into
identification of potential high-impact
cultural/aesthetic viewpoint can be achieved.
be used to evaluate the alternative development
identified for the basin.
Task V-2:Impact
a single
zones from
This map can
schemes that
map,
a
then
are
This task consists of assessing the potential impacts the
selected project might have on aesthetic and visual resources and
identifying measures to ensure that project works blend,to the
extent possible,with the surrounding environment.Two computer
programs utilized on comparable Harza projects will be utilized
to provide a set of versatile,rapid,low-cost and objective
techniques for evaluating the visual impacts of land use
proposals before they are implemented.
The VIEWIT program delineates the terrain visible from
single or multiple observer points by calculating lines-of-sight.
Various subroutines provide distance weighting,elevation
profiles,and slope and aspect classification.The weighting of
viewable areas in terms of the number of times seen by mulitple
observers of the visual magnitude imposed by distance will
provide a measure of visual impact.The MOSAIC/PHOTOMONTAGE
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -117-
system combines photographic and computer graphics ~echniques to
provide perspective plots of landscape alterations which can be
overlaid directly on a photograph.Proposed developments can
therefore be quickly and accurately visualized,evaluated,and
modified;the advantages this provides in considering development
alternatives in a scenic region are significant.The landscape
alterations currently available with the MOSAIC/PHOTOMONTAGE
system include,spoil banks,fuel breaks,timber cuts,man-made
water bodies,earthen dams,cuts and fills for transportation
rights-of-ways,and various types of structures such as powerline
towers.Boundary lines,such as for designated Wilderness Areas,
may also be plotted.Both programs use digital topographic data
as input.Such data will be obtained through aerial
photograrnmetric surveys of the project area.One or two
iterations of these programs will permit the design of project
facilities and transmission lines that have minimum impact on
their natural setting.
Information derived from these investigations will be
presented at pUblic meetings to allow interested parties to see
and understand the process,as well as allowing the study team to
gain input from the pUblic's own evaluation and suggestions.
Such meetings will insure that information from the pUblic is
fully considered along with the technical information in the
planning stage.
The inventories and analyses of aesthetic resources
described in the feasibility study will be summarized in maps,
text,charts,and photographs consistent with the format
established for the FERC License Application to show how the
project will be designed to avoid or minimize conrlict with the
cultural/aesthetic resources.Graphics will be prepared in a
manner suitable for display at public and agency meetings.
Resource Inventory and Data Management
The scope of the studies for Susitna River Hydroelectric
Project will encompass a variety of engineering,geotechnical and
environmental disciplines.The various elements discussed in
this Plan or Study include significant emphasis on the inventory
of information on the resources to be developed or impacted by
the project.The geographic scope of these information
requirements will intensify as the project proceeds from the
basin planning (siting)stage to licensing.We recognize the
need to collect,store,analyze and display project data in a
manner that is cost-efficient and compatible with the needs of
the APA,as well as the requirements of regulatory agencies and
the public.We therefore propose a program or integrated
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -118-
resource inventory and subsequent data management as a specific
component of the Plan of Study.
Project Data Needs
Table C-1 summarizes the variety of resource data which will
be required during this project,and some of the variables which
will be important to the data collection and management tasks.
The table provides an indication of the scope,magnitude and
complexity of the project's information requirements although it
is not intended to be all inclusive at this stage.The data to
be obtained will exhibit several variable attributes:
a.Level of detail (basin-wide to site-specific);
b.Location;
c.Time (e.g.daily and monthly streamflow,seasonal
distribution of migratory big game,river channel
migrations,etc.);
d.Interdependence with other
investigations.(e.g.wildlife
vegetation;geology exploration
reconnaissance).
resource.s and
populations and
and archeologic
The data will be required for the purposes of project
siting,planning,design,impact assessment,public information
dissemination,coordination with cooperating and regulatory
agencies,and eventual project operation and resource management.
In order to minimize costs and maximize the utility of the
project data base,all of these needs will be considered in the
design of the data collection and management program.
Data Collection
Project information requirements will be met through the use
of existing maps,records,and literature references,
supplemented as necessary with original data collection programs.
State (DNR,ADF&G)and federal (BLM,SCS,NASA)agencies have
established data collection programs within the Susitna basin,
particularly with respect to geology and environmental resources.
The project data management program will utilize the results and
techniques of these ongoing efforts to the extent practical.
The personnel responsible for project data management will
participate in the design of original data collection programs
for the project in order to ensure that interrelated information
requirements are fully met.As an example,studies of the visual
impact of project structures (e.g.transmission lines)are based
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -119-
on computer-generated line-of-sight analyses which use digital
topographic data as input.Such data may be obtained at low cost
through photogrammetric means if proper specifications are
included in the aerial survey contract.Such coordination will
be the responsibility of the data management personnel.
Likewise,to the extent practical,field data collection programs
will be integrated to minimize costs.
Data Analysis and Display
Since much of the information required for project
development has a spatial dimension,it may be expressed and
compared with other information in a map format.This capability
will be especially useful during the basin planning stage,as
well as for the assessment of potential environmental impacts.
In addition,much of the project data base will be usable for
mathematical models.Both attributes--spatial character and
digital format--indicate the utility of computer-compatible
storage and display.
As soon as the project is initiated,a detailed program will
be formulated to develop appropriate formats for project data
files and procedures for collection,storage and retrieval of
project data.The Resource Inventory and Data Management Program
will therefore function as a supporting service throughout
project planning and licensing.Data lists,statistical
summaries,graphic representations and maps will be the principal
display devices provided.Such output will be prepared for
project planning and analysis,and will also provide important
visual aids for pUblic and agency presentations.
11-100 8 Sept.1979 -120-
TableC-l1)Basin-widedrainagepatternsandmeteorology1)USGS&NOAAmapsandrecords2)Site-specifichydrologicregimes2)FieldinstrumentationSummaryofSusitnaProjectResourcesInventoryandDataManagementRequirements4.WildlifePopula-tions(Game&non-gamespecies)Rbcktypesandage,lineaments,f~ulting,seismicityVegetationtypes,composition,structure,condition,successionallevelandvaluesOccurence,location,population,condition,sensitivitytodevelopmentHabitatquality,species,composi-tion,habitatusemovements,seasonaluse,harvestISitelocationsandvalueVariables&FormatHabitatfood&covervalues,wildlifespeciescorrelationsPopulationdistribution,migration,cyclingiElevations(contours)onahorizontalgdd.SameasaboveFlowvolume,duration,frequency~sedimentvolumeslvariousmeteoro-logicalvariables.Depth,movement,rechargezones,qiJalityPowerdemandandsupplyvariablesDataSourcesLiteratureandfieldprogramsSameasabove,includingradio-taggingandaerialsurveyofbiggameStateHistoricPreservationOfficer,fieldsurveysSameasaboveSameasaboveUSGSrecordsPublicutilities1)Existingmapsanddata2)Fieldexplorationprograms1)Literatureandfieldprograms2)Sameasabove3)Sameasabove1)and2)Ongoingstateandfederalmappingprograms3)Fieldprograms1)USGSQuadanglesarea,andtrans-2)AerialSurveyandgroundcontrolGeographicScopeSameasabovePowerMarketAreaProjectsiteandtransmissionlinerouteSameasaboveSameasaboveProjectarea,site-specific1)Basin-wide2)Damsite,reservoirareaandtransmissionlineroute1)Projectdamsites2)Reservoirareas1)Basin-wide2)Projectdamsite,reservoirmissionlineroute1)Basin-wide2)Projectsiteandtransmissionlineroutes1)SusitnaRiverandprojectareatributaries2)UpperCookInlet3)SurfacewaterbodiesinreservoirareaD.Geotechnical2.GroundWater2.Wetlands3.wildlifeHabitatsC.EnergyEconomics5.RareandEn-dangeredSpeciesB.Hydrology1.SurfaceWaterEnvironmentalA.TerrestrialEcology1.VegetationRequiredDataEngineering/PlanningA.TopographyB.AquaticEcologyC.Historic&Archeo-logicalResources1.II.JJJoJJJoooooJJo2.ScenicResources1)Basin-wide2)ProjectareaooDD.Recreation&Aesthetics1.RecreationActivities&Resources1)Basin-wide2)Projectarea1)Stateandfederalagencyfiles2)Fieldprograms1)CorpsofEngineersstudies,2)FieldprogramsFacilitylocations,activitydistribu-tion,visitoruse,travelpatterns,expendituresLandscapecharactertypes,viewingpopulations,viewshedlimits,lines-of-sight
~,I<_J]oJJnu1L)J]JJ]PARTDDETAILEDBUDGETESTIMATESThebUdgetestimatesaresummarizedbydisciplineormajorprogramonTableD-l.ThebasesrortheestimatesarediscussedinPartA,Section3,"BudgetSummary"orVolume1.TheestimatedbUdgetroreachworkiteminthePlanorstudy,byquarter,isgiveninTableD-2(17sheets).TheestimatesincludeallactivitiesthroughsubmittalortheFERCLicenseApplication.]]]11-1008Sept.1979-121-
J0TableD-l0PlanofStudyBudgetSummary($1000)0DisciplineItemor198019801980198019811981 1981 1981 1982DisciplineNo.MajorProgram1stQ2ndQ3rdQ4thQ1stQ2ndQ3rdQ4thQ1stQTotal01.ProjectManagement6867685554545460775572.Logistics3768601454224391794911183107530003.PublicInformationSupport74757510061 61 61100506574.Photography,Surveying,andMapping30131154206025420J5.EnvironmentalStudiesa.DataCoordination&Management444040454545 454535384b.TerrestrialEcology174232 237248160179163 1939916850c.AquaticEcology433172245168 1282272272031011904d.Recreation&Aesthetics122510 1515108950e.History&Archeology3163106413463887444544f.HumanEcology203732283120g.QualityControl&TechnicalEditing1284 23 3 3 5125206.EngineeringStudiesa.Hydrologic&RiverHydraulics2111585333502750183210b.PowerMarket3034468c.AlternativeSourcesofGeneration69.1172020392650d.HydroelectricProject76187166174986156299681104e.PowerSystemExpansionandOperation16 16151562f.Transmission&Systems-53228259 5122Jg.EngineeringGeology643610717171242394814666h.Drilling&Testing39357610979i.SoilFoundationsandJConstructionMaterials4890632532654516 16400j.SeismicGeology&Seismology16015718020601421361299840k.EconomicandFinancialAnalyses3041411121.ConstructionCosts&Programs1438105233155141900QuarterlySubtotals174424363096104511072455 2920152866016.9910J1220
JJJDisciplineorMajorProgram:1.PROJECTMANAGEMENTTableD-2DetailedBudgetEstimatebyQuarters($1000)ooJJoooJ[]JlJooJoDWorkItem1980 1980 1980198019811981 198119811982ActivityPhaseorActivity1stQ2ndQ3rdQ4thQ1stQ2ndQ3rdQ4thQ1stQTotalI1.HarzaProj.Manage-ment&Coordination5251 521552.ManagementSupportServices16 16 1648SubtotalPhaseI203II1.HarzaProj.Manage-ment&Coord.40 404040452052.ManagmementSupportServices1514 14141572SubtotalPhaseII277III1.HarzaProj.Manage-ment&Coord.53532.ManagmementSupportServices2424SubtotalPhaseIII77QuarterlySubtotal68676855 54 54546077DisciplineT.otal557123
DisciplineorMajorProgram:2.LOGISTICSTableD-2(con't)DetailedBudgetEstimatebyQuarters($1000)WorkItem1980 19801980198019811981 19811981 1982ActivityPhaseorActivity1sLQ2ndQ3rdQ4thQ1stQ2ndQ3rdQ4thQ1stQTotalI1.HousingandFood3665171109932.ArcticClothing26263.RadioEquipment42424.HelicopterCharter21188262535245.FixedWingCharter108898292256."AircraftFuel79797.DieselforCamp58588.ExpandExistFacility1181815308299.Misc.LogisticSupport16II2165410.Dispatcher/Parametic/RadioOper./Logistic626262684LSubtotalPhaseI2,914I!1.HousingandFood1584624876911762.HelicopterCharter47218285686183.FixedWingCharter983108232234.AircraftFuel1001005.DieselforCamp52526.Misc.LogisticSupport119 87357.Dispatcher/Parametic/RadioOper./Logistic1422 231675SubtotalPhaseII2,279II!1.HousingandFood37372.HelicopterCharter37373.FixedwingCharter16164.AircraftFuel555."Misc.LogisticSupport446.Dispatcher/Parametic/RadioOper./Logistic88------ ----QuarterlySubtotals3768601,454224391794911183107SubtotalPhaseIII107"DisciplineTotal5,300124
DisciplineorMajorProgram:3.PUBLICINFORMATIONSUPPORTTableD-2(Con't)DetailedBudgetEstimatebyQuarters($1000)WorkItem1980198019801980 1981 1981 1981 19811982ActivityPhaseorActivitz1stQ2ndQ3rdQ4thQ1stQ2ndQ3rdQ4thQ1stQ.TotalIAssistAPAinPublicMeeting,PublicInformation,etc.747575SubtotalPhaseI224IIAssistAPAinPublicMeetings,Information,etc.100616161100SubtotalPhaseII383IIIAssistAPAinPublicMeetings,Information,etc.50SubtotalPhaseIII50------------------QuarterlySubtotals74757510061 616110050DisciplineTotal657125
o[]oooooooooooooooooDisciplineorMajorProgram:4.PHOTOGRAPHY,SURVEYING&MAPPINGITableD-2(Con't)DetailedBudgetEstimatebyQuarters($1000)126
/_'7(DisciplineorMajorProgram:6.HYDROLOGICANDRIVERHYDRAULICSTUDIESTableD-2(con't)DetailedBudgetEstimatebyQuarters($1000)~J]]ooooJJoooD]WorkItem19801980198019801981198119811981 1982ActivityPhaseorActivity1stQ2ndQ3rdQ4thQ1stQ'2ndQ3rdQ4thQ1stQTotalI1.DataCollection&FieldInvestigation5 272.DelineationofBaselineConditions6 5113.WaterSupply,Flood,&SedimentationStudies1017274.AssessExistingDataCollectionSystem47115.MasterPlanReport1717SubtotalPhaseI73I!1.AvailableWaterSupply16162.FloodAnalysis131414 18593.Sedimentation5 57174.TailwaterandWaterSurfaceProfiles103 3165.WaterQuality481122226736.FeasibilityReport54449sJbtotalPhaseII230II!FERCLicenseApplica-I,tionExhibits18SubtotalPhaseIII18--IQuarterlySubtotals211158533350275018DisciplineTotal321129
DisciplineorMajorProgram:5.ENVIRONMENTALSTUDIES(Cont'd)TableD-2(Con't)DetailedBudgetEstimatebyQuarters($1000)Page2of2WorkItem1980 1980 19801980198119811981 19811982ActivityPhaseorActivitY....1stQ2ndQ3rdQ4thQ1stQ2ndQ3rdQ4thQ1stQTotalII4.Recreation&Aesthetics10 1515108585.History&ArcheologybyU.ofAlaska41346388743006.HumanEcologya.LoadProjectionsb.Impacts283317.QualityControl&Tech-nicalEditing2 333516SubtotalPhaseII2,526IIIl.EnvironmentalDataCoordi-nation&Management35352.TerrestrialEcologya.Non-gameSpeciesStudiesbyU.ofAlaska2727b.WildlifeBiology44c.BigGameStudiesbyAlaskaDeptof.Fish&Game68683.AquaticEcologya.Studies2323b.InstreamFlow&WaterQualitybyU.ofAlaska1111c.FisheriesStudiesbyAlaskaDeptofFish&Game67674.History&ArcheologybyU.ofAlaska44445.QualityControl&Tech-nicalEditing.1212SubtotalPhaseIII291----QuarterlySubtotals714564689514385560539528291DisciplineTotal4,784128
DisciplineorMajorProgram:6.HYDROLOGICANDRIVERHYDRAULICSTUDIESTable0-2(con't)DetailedBudgetEstimatebyQuarters($1000),JWorkItem19801980 1980 198019811981 198119811982ActivityPhaseorActivity1stQ2ndQ3rdQ4thQ1stQ.2ndQ3rdQ4thQ1stQTotalI1.DataCollection&FieldInvestigation5 272.DelineationofBaselineConditions6 5113.WaterSupply,Flood,&SedimentationStudies1017274.AssessExistingData.CollectionSystem47115.MasterPlanReport1717SubtotalPhaseI73II1.AvailableWaterSupply16162.FloodAnalysis13141418593.Sedimentation5 57174.TailwaterandWaterSurfaceProfiles103 3165.WaterQuality481122226736.•FeasibilityReport54449SubtotalPhaseII230IIIFERCLicenseApplica-tionExhibits18SubtotalPhaseIII18----------_.-QuarterlySubtotals211158533350275018DisciplineTotal321129
DisciplineorMajorProgram:7.POWERMARKETSTUDIESTable0-2(con't)DetailedBudgetEstimatebyQuarters($1000)WorkItem19801980198019801981198i198119811982ActivityPhaseorActivity1stQ2ndQ3rdQ4thQ1stQ2ndQ3rdQ4thQ1stQTotalI1.PowerMarketStudies30344SubtotalPhaseI68IINoneIIINoneQuarterlySubtotals30344130DisciplineTotal----68
DisciplineorMajorprogram:8.ALTERNATIVESOURCESOFGENERATIONTableD-2(Con't)DetailedBudgetEstimatebyQuarters($1000)131
DisciplineorMajorProgram:9.HYDROELECTRICPROJECTSTUDIESTableD-2(con't)DetailedBudgetEstimatebyQuarters($1000)132
DisciplineorMajorProgram:10.POWERSYSTEMEXPANSIONANDOPERATIONTableD-2(con't)DetailedBudgetEstimatebyQuarters($1000)WorkItem1980 1980 19801980 19811981198119811982ActivityPhaseorActivitylst_Q~ndQ3rcLQ4thQ1stQ2ndQ3rdQ4thQ1stQTotalIPreliminaryStudies16 16SubtotalPhaseI32IIFeasibilityStudies1515SubtotalPhaseII30IIINone-----QuarterlySubtotals016 160015 1500DisciplineTotal62133
DisciplineorMajorProgram:11.TRANSMISSION&SYSTEMSSTUDIESTableD-2(C6n't)DetailedBudgetEstimatebyQuarters($1000)134
DisciplineorMajorProgram:12.ENGINEERINGGEOLOGYTable0-2(Con't)DetailedBudgetEstimatebyQuarters($1000)WorkItem198019801980198019811981 19811981 1982ActivityPhaseorActivity1stQ·2ndQ3rdQ4thQ1stQ2ndQ3rdQ4thQ1stQTotalI1-ReviewDataandLitera-tureSearch23232.StudySatelliteImagery&AerialPhotos443.MapStudies444.InitialEvaluationofRegionalGeology22225.PrepareSurfaceGeologyWorkProgress226.SurfaceMappingofPoten-tialDamSites22227.ReconnaissanceofPoten-tialAccessRoads&TransmissionRoutes29118.ReconnaissanceofEcono-micMinerals&CementPlantPotential779.IdentificationofGeologicHazards111110.DefineGeologicSiteCon-ditionsforAlternatePlans7 7 72111.BasinPlanReport&Drawings801797,SubtotalPhaseI224II1.PreparatoryWorkforSub-.1surfaceExploration17172.SubsurfaceExploration2633676303.GeophysicalTesting861552414.FieldSupport741091835.MonitorFieldProgram4044846.Review&EvaluateFieldData718257.EvaluateRockCore&Aggre-gateTests228.ReviewGeophysicalData229.SeismicCoordination&Review161610.EngineeringGeologyStudies31832411.FeasibilityReport&Drawings304575SubtotalPhaseII1,299IIIFERCLicenseApplicationExhibits14SubtotalPhaseIII14--QuarterlySubtotals643610717174737614814DisciplineTotal1,537135
JDisciplineorMajorProgram:13.SOILFOUNDATIONSANDCONSTRUCTIONMATERIALSTableD-2(Con't)DetailedBudgetEstimatebyQuarters($1000)
DisciplineorMajorProgram:14.SEISMICGEOLOGYANDSEISMOLOGYTable0-2(Con't)DetailedBudgetEstimatebyQuarters($1000)137
DisciplineorMajorProgram:15.ECONOMICANDFINANCIALANDANALYSESTableD-2(Con't)DetailedBudgetEstimatebyQuarters($1000)I1.PreliminaryEconomicAnalysis2.PreliminaryFinancialConsiderationsII1.DetailedEconomicAnalysis2.DevelopmentofFinanc-ingPlans&PayoffSchedulePhaseIIIWorkItemorActivityNone19801980 1980198019811981198119811982Activity1stQ2ndQ3rdQ4thQ1stQ2ndQ3rdQ4thQ1stQTotal19191111SubtotalPhaseI3027 2754141428SubtotalPhaseII82QuarterlySubtotalsoo30o o138o41 41oDisciplineTotal112
nisciplineorMajorProgram:16.CONSTRUCTIONCOSTANDPROGRAMSTable0-2(Con't)DetailedBudgetEstimatebyQuarters($1000)139