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EESANCHORAGE_~../eFAlRB~NKST...../.-\ ThisreportisincludedasSectionG,Appendix-Part2oftheSouthcentralRailbeltArea,Alaska,UpperSusitnaRiverBasin,SupplementalFeasibilityReportbytheCorpsofEn-gineers,revisedFebruary1979.DATEDUE,0,~,h_'",""-...-"~V5,~'"hI''''"-!v'd"t:.vtj!c.LtIJtJ'vf"";i~~HIGHSMITH45-220 IISincerely,April2,1979Undertheassumptionsmadeforthisreport,AlaskaPowerAdministrationdeterminesthattheUpperSusitnaProjectisfeasiblefromapowermarketingstandpoint.-(,-L&L_~RobertJ.CrossAdministratorAdraftoft~isreportwascirculatedtotheareautilitiesandcon-'cernedStateofficersforinformalreviewandcomment.Commentshavebeenincorporatedandthelettersofcommentsareappended.DepartmentOfEnergyAlaskaPowerAdministrationP.O.Box50Juneau,Alaska99802Thepowermarketreportincludes:anewsetofloadprojectionsfortheRailbeltareathroughyear2025andareviewofalternativesourcesofpower.Load/resourceandtotalpowersystemcostanalyseswerepreparedfordifferentscenariosundervariousassumptionstodetermineeffectsonpowerrates.ThisisAlaskaPowerAdministration'snewpowermarketreportfortheUpperSusitnaProject.It'sanupdateofthepreviouspowermarketanalysesprovidedfortheCorps'1976InterimFeasibilityreport.DearColonelRobertson:ColonelGeorgeR.RobertsonDistrictEngineerCorpsofEngineersP.O.Box7002Anchorage,Alaska99510 CONTENTSTITLEPARTI -INTRODUCTIONPARTII-SUMMARYPARTIII-POWERMARKETAREASAnchorage-CookInletFairbanks-TananaValley..•....PARTIV-EXISTINGPOWERSYSTEMSUtilitySystemsandServiceAreasNationalDefensePowerSystemsIndustrialPowerSystemsExistingGenerationCapacityPlannedGenerationCapacityPARTV -POWERREQUIREMENTSIntroduct.ionDataAnalysisUtility.NationalDefense•••.••Self-SuppliedIndustryEnergy&PowerDemandForecastsAssumptionsandMethodologyPopulationUtilityNationalDefenseSelf-SuppliedIndustryEstimateofFutureDemandsComparisonWithOtherForecastsLoadDistribution.•.••.•.CapacityRequirementsPARTVI-ALTERNATIVEPOWERSOURCESIntroduction.AlternativesConsidered..••.•.CoalLocationCapacityInvestmentCosts.•.•.••FuelCostandAvailabilityCostofPower••••.••••.•.ComparativeCostofPower(FERC)OilandNaturalGas..•••..•.Hydro.CriteriaSingleLargeCapacitySitesCombinationsofSmallCapacitySitesSummary...........•.•...•..•........iPAGENO.137781010121313151616162333333333333336363838556163636363636464677070717171717273 CONTENTS(Continued)TitlePageNo.G.R.Robertson,AlaskaresponsestoOMBquestions7373737374757575-7779797986898989909091979798101102105105106117108108108109110114116Introduction............•..........•........Inflation.PowerMarketArea.PowerRequirements.TransmissionPIanandCost.OperationandMaintenanceCost•.........•...............AssessmentofFeasibility.ConcIusion..Nuclear..Wind..Geothermal.Tide.Introduction.BasicDataandAssumptions.•.•..••.•.•.•..•..•...••..•..StudyMethodology..Results..Load/ResourceAnalyses.........••••.•••..•••••..•••.•SystemPowerCosts..PARTVII-LOAD/RESOURCEANDSYSTEMCOSTANALYSESPARTIX-OPERATION,MAINTENANCE,ANDREPLACEMENTPLANANDCOSTSOperationandMaintenance.••.•.......•..•.............••PlanDescription..MarketingandAdministration••.•.•.•.••..••..•••...•.AnnualCosts..Replacements.PARTVIII-INVESTMENTCOSTSAPPENDIX••••...•.••PARTX -FINANCIALANALYSISMarketforProjectPower.CostofProject.........•...............................AverageRateDetermination••.•...•...............•.•....PowerMarketingConsiderations.•.•••••••.••.•......••••.MarketAspectsofOtherTransmissionAlternatives.•.•...Anchorage-CookInletArea••.•...•...•.......•.ComparisonofSusitnatoSteamptantsWithandWithoutiiPARTXI-GLENNALLEN-VALDEZAREA........•••...1.LetterdatedJanuary3,1979toCol.DistrictCorpsofEngineers,transmittingfallinginAPA'sareaofresponsibility. 2.PreviousStudiesandBibliography.3.LOAD/RESOURCEANDSYSTEMCOSTANALYSISFORTHERAILBELTREGIONOFALASKA:1978-2010--InformalReport--byBattellePacificNorthwestLaboratories,Richland,Washington-January,1979.4.Comments.a.FederalEnergyRegulatoryCommission,SanFrancisco,California.b.BattellePacificNorthwestLaboratories,Richland,Washington.c.CorpsofEngineers,Anchorage,Alaskad.TheAlaskaStateClearinghouse,Juneau,Alaskae.MunicipalLightandPower,Anchorage,Alaskaiii AREACOMBIN'ED.••••••••..••••.••.•••.••.•••••••.••••.•.46iv8.POPULATIONESTIMATES1980-2025•..•..•••••.••••.•••••••341814PAGENO.BASICPOWERANDENERGYFORECASTINGDATAANCHO~~GE-COOKINLETAREA(INCLUDINGSEWARD)RAILBELTAREAGENERATIONCAPACITYSUMMARY-1977TABLES2.1.10.POWERANDENERGYREQUIRE~ffiNTS(ANCHORAGE-COOKINLETAREA)•••.•••.••.•...•.•.•••.••.•4011.POWERANDENERGYREQUIREMENTS(FAIRBANKS-TANANAVALLEYAREA)•..•••.•.••.•••••••.••••4312.RAILBELTAREAPOWERANDENERGYREQUIREMENTSANCHORAGE-COOKINLETAREAANDFAIRBANKS-TANANAVALLEYNUMBER7.AVERAGEANNUALUTILITYGROWTHSUMMARy.................2613.COMPARISONOFUTILITYENERGYESTIMATES,1975MARKETABILITYREPORT,UPDATEOF1975,AND1978ANaYSIS....•.•....•.........................4915.UTILITYPEAKDEMANDFORECASTS(MW)ANCHORAGE-COOKINLETAREA••.•••••••.•••••.••••.•..••••533.BASICPOWERANDENERGYFORECASTINGDATAFAIRBANKS-TANANAVALLEYAREA••...•••••••••••••••••••••1916.UTILITYENERGYANDPEAKDEMANDFORECASTSFAIRBANKS-TANANAVALLEYAREA••••••••••.•...•••.•••••••5414.UTILITYENERGYFORECASTS(GWH)ANCHORAGE-COOKINLETAREA•••••••••••••••••••••••••••••526.NETGENERATION(GWH)FAIRBANKS-TANANAVALLEYAREA•....••.•..•••••.•.•..••.•224.BASICPOWERANDENERGYFORECASTINGDATA~~LBELTAREA(ANCHORAGE-COOKINLETANDFAIRBANKS-TANANAVALLEY).•••••••..•••..•••••••..••••.•205.NETGENERATION(GWH)ANCHORAGE-COOKINLETAREA••....•.••..••.•.•••..•..••••219.•NETANNUALPERCAPITAGENERATION(KWH)RAILBELTAREAUTILITIES39 vSTE.Al1.PLANTS•••••••••••••••••••.•••••••••••••.••••••.••65STE.A}tPL.AN'TS••.••••••••••••..•••••••••••••••••••••••••.•69605999PAGENO.LOADDISTRIBUTIONCHARACTERISTICSMONTHLYPEAKLOADSANDLOADFACTORSMARKETFORUPPERSUSITNAPOWER(ANCHORAGEANDFAIRBANKSAREAS)MEDIUMLOADGROWTHESTIMATESREQUIREMENT••..••.••..•••...•••••..•.TABLES(Continued)AREA-0%INFLATION.......••.••....•...•.•••••••.••••.8326.INVESTMENTCOSTSUMMARy...............................8827.ANNUALOPERATIONANDMAINTENANCECOSTESTIMATE.•..•.•.9225.CONSTRUCTIONCOSTSUMMARy.............................8728.OPERATIONANDMAINTENANCECOSTSUMMARy................9519.COMPARISONOFINVESTMENTCOSTSFORCOAL-FIRED23.AVERAGEPOWERCOSTSANCHORAGE-COOKINLET17..22.ANNUALPOWERSYSTEMCOSTS-0%INFLATION(COMBINEDANCHORAGE-COOKINLETANDFAIRBANKS-TANANAVALLEYAREAS).........................................8120.GENERATIONCOSTSFORCONVENTIONALCOAL-FIRED24.AVERAGEPOWERCOSTS-0%INFLATIONFAIRBANKS-TANANAVALLEYAREA•..•....••...•••.•..••••••8424a.COMBINEDANCHORAGE-COOKINLETANDFAIRBANKS-TANANAVALLEYAREAAVERAGEANNUALPOWERCOSTS.••..•.•......••8529.REPLACEMENTCOSTS•..••••.•.•....•••.•.....•.•.•...••••9618.MONTHLYENERGYREQUIREMENTSASPERCENTOFfu~AL21.SUMMARYOFTHERMALGENERATINGCAPACITYADDITIONSTOTHEYEAR2010..•.•..•.....•.•.'.. . . . . •. •. •..•. . . . •.•...7830.33.AVERAGERATEDETERMINATION(WATANAANDDEVILCANYON).•....•••••...•.•••.•.....•..10432.COSTSUMMARYCOMPARISONWITH1976INTERIMFEASIBILITYREPORT......•...•...••...•.•••......•.•••.103NUMBER31.INVESTMENTfu~DOM&RCOSTSUMMARy......................100 vi36.UTILITYFORECASTS(VALDEZ-GLENNALLENAREA)..••..•..•..11334.HISTORICDATA(GLENNALLEN-VALDEZAREA).....•..........111PAGENO.TABLES(Continued)35.UTILITYNETGENERATION(GWH)(GLENNALLEN-VALDEZAREA)..........•.........•........•11237.TRANSMISSIONSYSTEMINVESTMENTCOSTSUMMARY(GLENNALLEN-VALDEZAREA)••...•••••••....•.••.•.••...•.114NUMBER38.TRANSMISSIONSYSTEMOPERATION,MAINTENANCE,ANDREPLACEMENTCOSTSUMMARY(GLENNALLEN-VALDEZ~~EA)115 AREA••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••27V~LEYAREA••••••••.•••••.••.•..•••..••..••.•...••••••3013.TOTALRAILBELTAREAENERGYFORECAST••.•.••••••••••••••47424458107PAGENO.FIGURESviiENERGYFORECASTFAIRBANKS-TANANAVALLEYAREAV~LEY••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••82PEAKLOADFORECASTfu~CHORAGE-COOKINLETAREACOMPARISONOFSUSITNAANDALTERNATIVECOAL-FIREDSTEAMPLANTRATESCONSIDERING5%ANNUALINFLATIONll.10.12.PEAKLOADFORECASTFAIRBANKS-TANANAVALLEYAREA.••••.•45•18.ANNUALPOWERSYSTEMCOSTSWITHANDWITHOUTSUSITNACOMBINEDANCHORAGE-COOKINLETANDFAIRBANKS-TANANA19.17.LOADDURATIONCURVE-1977ANCHORAGEAREA15.SYSTEMDAILYGENERATIONCURVEANCHORAGEAREA1976•••••5614.TOTALRAILBELTAREAPEAKLOADFORECAST•..•.••.•••••.••482.UPPERSUSITNARIVERPROJECTAREASPRESENTLYSERVEDBYRAILBELTUTILITIES•.•....•.....•.•...•..••••1116.SYSTEMDAILYGENERATIONCURVEANCHORAGEAREA1977-78••578.ANNUALPOPULATION,EMPLOYMENT,ANDUTILITYCUSTOMERSFAIRBANKS-TANANAVALLEYAREA.....•.•••.••••..•..•••.••325.ANNUALPOPULATION,EMPLOYMENT,ANDUTILITYCUSTOMERSANCHORAGE-COOKINLETAREA•......••...•...•••.•.••.....293.ENERGYSECTORRATIOSANCHORAGE-COOKINLETAREASANDANNUALENERGYGENERATEDORSOLDk~CHORAGE-COOKINLET1.UPPERSUSITNARIVERBASINPROJECTFEATURESITELOCATION•.....•......•...•.•...•....•..•.viii6.ENERGYSECTORRATIOSFAIRBANKS-TANANAVALLEYAREAANDANNUALENERGYGENERATEDORSOLDFAIRBANKS-TANANA7.ANNUALENERGYUSEPERCAPITAANDPERCUSTOMERFAIRBANKS-TANANAVALLEYAREA•....••..•.•.•.•.••..•••••319.ENERGYFORECASTANCHORAGE-COOKINLETAREA.......•••...41NUMBER4.ANNUALENERGYUSEPERCAPITA&PERCUSTOMERANCHORAGE-COOKINLETAREA•.....•••....•••.••..••.•••••28 Figure1APA12/78viii. PARTI.INTRGDUCTIONTheInterimFeasibilityReportoftheUpperSusitnaRiverBasinProject(1976report)wascompletedbytheAlaskaDistrictCorpsofEngineers(Corps)in1976.AlaskaPowerAdministration(APA)providedthetrans-missionsystemandpowermarketanalysesforthatreport.TheCorpssubmittedthe1976reporttotheOfficeofManagementandBudget(OMB)for.review.InSeptember1977,OMBrequestedtheCorpsobtainadditionaldatabeforesubmittingthereporttoCongress.Therequesteddatawereto:(1)provideadditionalgeologicdatafortheWatanadamsite;(2)reanalyzethecostestimatecontingencyfactor;(3)reanalyzeareadevelopmentbenefits;and(4)reanalyzetheprojectedconstructionschedule.Therewerealsoquestionsaboutpowersupplyanddemand,includingsensitivitytodevelopingalargeblockofpowerinAPA'sareaofresponsibility.ThisreportupdatesthepowermarketanalysisandaddressesOMBconcerns.Itusesthreeyearsadditionaldataonpowerusage,effectsoftheoilembargo,andotherfactors.Specifically,it(1)updatesthe.powerdemandforecastsreflectingdatasincethe1976report;(2)updatesthetransmissionandprojectOM&Rcosts;(3)presentsload/resourceanalysestodeterminetimingofmajorgenerationandtransmissioninvestmentsandreflectresultingimpactsonpowersystemcosts;(4)presentssystempowercostanalysesthatshowannualsystem-widecostsofpowerwithandwithouttheUpperSusitnaProject;(5)examinesthevalueofanAnchoragetoFairbanksinterconnectionwithandwithoutSusitna;(6)providesasubanalysisofthefeasibilityofdeliveringSusitnapowertotheValdez-Glennallenarea;(7)determinespowerratesandmarketabilityofSusitnapowercomparedwithalternativegenerationmethods;and(8)respondstotheOMBquestionsinAPA'sareasofresponsibility.APA'gavetheCorps,fortheirreportpurposes:updatedtransmissionsystemcostsandprojectOM&Restimates;loadestimates;detailedload/resourceandsystemcostanalyseswithandwithoutSusitnaproject;andproposedresponsestoOMBquestionspertinenttoAPAareasofresponsibility.TheCorps'currentproposalfortheUpperSusitnaProjectisessentiallythesameasplan5inthe1976report:atwo-phase,two-damcomplexincludingWatanaandDevilCanyondamsandpowerplants,withtheWatanaphase'and,atransmissionsysteminterconnectingAnchorageandFairbankscomingon-linefirst.PowerproductionfacilitiesincludeWatanadam,reservoir,andpowerplant,andDevilCanyondam,reservoir,andpowerplant.Watanadamwouldbeanearthfillstructurewithreservoirnormalwatersurfaceelevationof2,185feet;thepowerplantwouldhave795MWcapacity.DevilCanyondamwouldbeadouble-curvatureconcrete-archstructurewithmaximumpoolelevationof1,450feet,providingwaterfora778-~vpowerplant.Thetransmissionsystemwouldbeconstructedinconjunctionwiththefirststage(Watana),and,1 asplanned,wouldbetotallyrequiredforsystemreliablilty.Thesystemwouldincudetwoparallel230-kvsinglecircuitlinesfromWatanatoDevilCanyon(30miles),twoparallelsinglecircuit345-kvlinesfromDevilCanyontoPt.McKenzie(Anchorage,135miles),andtwoparallelsinglecircuit230-kvlinesfromDevilCanyontoEster-GoldHill(Fairbanks,198miles).SeveralsignificantchangesweremadebytheCorpssincet;he1976report:(1)TheDevilCanyondamdesignandcostsarepresentedforbothagravitystructureandathin-archconcretestructure.The1976reportwasbasedonathin-archconcretestructure.(2)TheconstructionperiodforWatanawasincreasedfrom6yearsto11;'DevilCanyonfrom4yearsto7;andtheAnchorage-Fairbanksintertiere-scheduledfor1991--threeyearsbeforeWatanaPOL.(3)Watanadam(earthfill)wasredesigned,basedonnewgeologicdata.TheAPApowermarketreportusescertainassumptionsthatdifferfromtheCorpsplan,namely:(1)Designpowergenerationcapacity:TheCorpsdesigncapacityisbasedoncriticalyearprimaryenergyand50percentannualplantfactor(1,392MW).TheAPAload/resourceanalysesassumeadesigncapacitybasedonaverageannualenergyand50percentplantfactor(1,573~V).APAanalysesincludebothprimaryandsecondaryenergyaswellasfirmandnon-firmpower..(2)-Transmissionintertieschedule:TheCorpsplansshowa1991on-linedateforthetransmissionintertie.TheAPAsystemcOS.tanalysesexaminealternativeon-linedatesof1990,1992,and1994.Theload/resourceanalysisshowedtheearliestintertiedatescouldbe1986, 1989,and1991.APAfinancialanalysesareconsistentwiththeCorpsschedule.!3)ForDevilCanyonDesign:TheAPAsystemcostandfinancialanalysesassumethethin-archdesignforDevilCanyonaspresentedinthe1976report,ratherthanthemorecostlygravitystructurealternativenowbeingusedbythe/Corpsforfeasibilitytesting.Aseparateanalysisdemonstratestheeffectofthegravitydamalternativeoncostofpower.Theterm"1976report"isusedthroughoutthisreport.ThistermreferstotheCorpsofEngineersInterimFeasibilityReportontheUpperSusitnaproject,datedDecemb~r1975,revisedJune1976.ItalsoreferstoAPAtsPowerMarketanalysisdated1975andincludedasAppendixGintherevisedInterimFeasibilityReport.2 PartII.SUMMARYCurrentstudieshaveupdatedandrevisedthepowermarketanalysesofthe1976UpperSustinaReport(1976report).Newestimatesofpowerrequirementsthroughtheyear2025havebeenprepared.The1976reportusedenergyandpowerestimatesbasedondatathroughDecember1974.ThenewanalysesbenefitfromthreefullyearsofadditionaldatathroughDecember1977.Thisprovidesafullfouryearsof"postoil-embargotldata--especiallysignificantfromtheviewpointofidentifyingconservationtrends.EvidenceofconservationshowsintheAnchorage-CookInletareagrowthcomparisonsbeforeandafterthe1973-74fuelcrlSlS.The1970-73averageannualgrowthinnetgenerationdroppedfrom14.2percentto12.7percentinthe1973-77period.Thedecreasewasmoredramaticforpercapitanetgeneration:Adropfrom8percentto3.8percent.Becausethenetgenerationkwh/capitaraioseemedtoreflecttheclosestcorrelations,particularlyinrecentyears,thisratioandpopulationwereusedtoforecastnetgenerationvaluesbetween1980and2025.ThefollowingRailbelttotalsaredetailedinPartV.Trendedvaluesofferaninterestingcomparisonbutarenotpresentedaspartoftheforecast.Thetrendisanaverageannualgrowthof12.3percentresultingfrom12.7percentfortheAnchorageareaand10.5percentfortheFairbanksarea.Railbe1tAreaEnergyForecast(GWH)19771980199020002025(Historic)Utility:High3,4108,20016,92038,020Mid2,2733,1556,11010,94017,770Low2,9204,5507,0708,110NationalDefense:High348384425544Mid338338338338338Low330299270210Self-SuppliedIndustry:High1702,1003,5908,490Mid701706301,4603,470Low1413705501,310Total:High3,92810,68420,93547,054Mid2,6813,6637,07812,73821,578Low3,3915,2197,8909,630Trend@1973-77annual/growth:(3,215)(10,270)(33,000)(601,000)3 Arealoadcharacteristicsdata~ereupdatedandnewestimatesofmonthlyenergydistributionweremade.Theconclusionwasthatthe50percentplantfactorsizingassumptionisstillvalid.Afurtherreviewofpossiblepowersupplyalternativesincludedoilandnaturalgas,coal,alternative·hydroprojects,nuclear,wind,geothermal,andtide.Itconcludedagainthatcoal-firedsteamplaI).tsarethemostlogicalalternativesformajorrailbeltareapowersuppliesintheproposedSusitnaprojecttimeframe.Newestimatesofcostofpowerfromcoal-firedsteamplantswerepreparedusingresultsofseveralrecentstudies.Theyindicate:Investmentcostsof$1,620-$1,860/kwUnitcostofpowerof5.2-6.4¢/kwh(includingtransmissiontoloadcenter)Asetofload/resourceandannualsystemcostanalyseswereperformedtoexamin~the'effectsofSusitnaandthetransmissionintertiefromanoverallpowersystemapproach.TheseanalyseswereneededtoprovideresponsestoOMBquestionsregarding:(1)thevalueofaninterconnectedtransmissionsystembetweenAnchorageandFairbanks;(2)schedulingofmajorpowerplants;and,(3)sensitivityofdevelopinglargeblocksofpower.APA'sresponsetotheOMBquestionsareappended.Threecaseswereanalyzedusingthreeprojectedloadgrowthestimates:Case1.AwithoutSusitnaProjectandwithouttransmissionintertiesituationassumingallgeneratingcapacitytobesuppliedbycoal-firedsteamplants.Case2.SameascaseIbutwithtransmissionintertie.Case3.AwithSusitnaProjectandwithintertiesituationassumingadditionalgeneratingcapacitysuppliedbycoal-firedsteamplants.Theload/resource'analysesshowedthescheduleofnewplantadditionsneededforalltnreecasesfor1978-2011.Thesystemcostanalysescomparedannualpowersystemcostsforallthreecases,assuming0and5percentinflationrates.Theanalysesshowedannualsystemcostsavingsof$2.23billionbetween1990and201l~withtheSusitnaproject.Averagepowersystemratesfortheyear2000assumingnoinflationwillbe:4 LoadForecastHighMidLowCase1Without.SusitnaorIntertie6.61/6.9I/7.51/¢/KWHCase2WithoutSustinaWithIntertie6.46.66.7Case3WithSusitnaandIntertie5.85.76.41/AnchorageandFairbanksarenotinterconnectedforcas~1;thecombinedsystemrateisshownforacademicpurposesonly.Forthemediumenergyuserange,systemrates,comparedtothosewithoutSusitnaorinterconnections,willbe5.71/percentlesswithinterconnections18.6percentlesswithSusitna.-TheanalysesshowedSusitnawillresultincheaperpowercosttoAnchorageand-Fairbanksinallloadgrowthcases.ItalsoshowsthatthePf?jectpowercouldbefullyusedunderallprojectedpowerdemandcases.-Incomparisonwiththe1976report,investmentcostsare89percent($1.567billion)greater.Contributingfactorsare:interestrateincreasefrom65/8to71/2percenttotalconstructionperiodincreasefrom6yearsto10y~ars,costinflation;andredesignofWatanadamandpowerplantfacilities.NewconstructioncostestimatesforWatanadam(containingeffectsofbothdesignquanititychangesandunitcostinflation)are$595million(72percent)higher.ConstructioncostestimatesforDevilCanyondam(thin-archconcrete)powerplantfacilities,andthetransmissionsystemwereupdatedprimarilybyindexing.Thisresultedina54percentincreaseoverthe1976report"($233millionforDevilCanyonand$82millionforthetransmissionsystem).Thetotalinterestduringconstructionincreaseis265percent($657million).Insummary,theincreasesinconstructioncostsare:WatanaDevilCanyonTransmissionSystemInterestduringConstructionTotal$59523382657$1567million"""millionprojectinvestmentcostincreaseFinancialanalyseswerebasedontheOctober1978pricelevel,FiscalYear1979"Federaiinterestrateof71/2percent,intertiein1991or1992,andrepaymentofallprincipalandinterestwithin50yearsafterthelastunitisinstalled.1./Case2Value(6.6%)-1Case1Value(7.0%)-5.7%;Case3Value(5.7%)-1Case1Value(7.0%)-18.6%2/Interconnectionbenefitsleadingtolowerratesinvolveloadsupplyflexibility,economicsofscaleandoperations,decreasedreserverequirements,andbetterreliability.5 AcomparisonoftherateforSustinaat4.7¢/kwhwiththecoal-firedsteamplantalternativeat5.2/kwhto6.4¢/kwhshowsSusitnaislesscostly.TheGlennallen-Valdezar~awasconsideredasamarketareasupplementarytotheRailbelt.The.CopperValleyElectricAssociation(CVEA)planstoconstructaGlennallen-Valdeztransmissionline,andthepresenceofthepipelineterminalinValdezwithitsrelatedeconomyhasmadethisareaamoreattractivemarketsincethe1976report.Servicetotheareawouldrequirea138-kvlinefromPalmertoGlennallen(136miles).Areamarketfactorsaresubjecttofluctuation.Potentialindustrialloadsaredifficulttoprojectatthistime,butservicetoutilityloadscanbeevaluatedforaprobablerangeofdemands.Energycoststoservetheincrementalmarketareawillrangefrom2.6¢/kwhto1.3¢/kwhforarangeofloadsfrom150to300kwh/yearinadditiontotheprojectenergycostof·4.7¢/kwh.Inclusionofthemarketareacostswithotherprojectcostsforasing~eproject-wideratewouldnotadverselyaffecttherate.6 PARTIII.POWERMARKETAREASThroughoutitshistoryofinvestigations,theUpperSusitnaRiverBasinProjecthasbeenofinterestforhydroelectricpowergenerationbecauseofitscentrallocationtotheFairbanksandAnchorageareas.TheseareashaveAlaska'slargestconcentrationsofpopulation,economicactivity,services,andindustry.Underanyplanofdevelopment,majorportionsoftheprojectpowerwillbeusedinthesetwoareas.Inaddition,thebasicprojecttransmissionsystemservingAnchorageandFairbankscouldprovideelectricservicetopresentandfuturedevelopmentsbetweenthetwocities.ThepotentialmajormarketareasaretheAnchorage-CookInletareaandtheFairbanks-TananaValleyarea.Ancho~age-CookInletAreaThisareaincludesthedevelopedareasoftheMatanuskaValley,GreaterAnchorageArea,andKenaiPeninsula.ThisgeneralareahasbeenthefocalpointformostoftheState'sgrowthintermsofpopulation,business,services,andindustrysinceWorldWarII.Majorbuildingofdefenseinstallations,expansionofgovernmentservices,discoveryanddevelopmentofnaturalgasandoilintheCookInletarea,andemergenceofAnchorageastheState'scenterofgovernment,finance,travel,andtourismaremajorelementsinthehistoryofthisarea.Becauseofitscentralroleinbusiness,commerce,andgovernment,theAnchorageareaisdirectlyinfluencedbyeconomicactivityelsewhereintheState.MuchofthebuildupinconstructionandoperationoftheAlyeskapipeline,muchofthegrowthrelatedtoCookInletoildevelopment,andmuchofthegrowthinStateandlocalgovernmentservicessinceStatehoodhasoccurredintheimmediateAnchoragevicinity.Initially,economistsoverestimatedtheimpactsofcompletionofthetrans-Alaskaoilpipeline.InarecentstudypreparedbytheUniversityofAlaskaInstituteofSocialandEconomicResearch,theprojected1980populationforAnchorage-CookInletwaslowerthanthatofthehistorical1977population.Thoughthishasbeencorrected,itindicatesthatthearea'seconomyhasbeenstrongerthananticiapted.TheGreaterAnchorageAreaBoroughestimateditsJuly1,1977populationat195,800,anincreaseofnearly55percentsincethe1970census.Thiswasmorethan48percentofthetotalestimatedStatepopulationin1977.7 TheMatanuskaValleyincludesseveralsmallcities(Palmer,Wasilla,Talkeetna)andtheState'slargestagriculturalcommunity.Othereconomicactivitiesincluderecreationandlightmanufacturing.MuchrecentgrowthintheBoroughhasbeeninresidentialandrecreationalhomesforworkersintheAnchoragearea.Estimated1977populationwas15,740,a61percentincreasesince1974.TheKenaiPeninsulaBoroughincludesthecitiesofKenai,Soldotna,Homer,Seldovia,andSeward;withimportantfisheries,oilandgas,andrecreationresources.Estimated1977populationwas23,100,a39percentincreasesince1974.PresentandproposedactivitiesindicatelikelihoodofrapidgrowthinthisgeneralCookInletareaforthefuture.MuchofthisaCtivityisrelatedtooilandnaturalgas,includingexpansionoftherefineries.TheStatecapitalcitysiterelocationissueremainsunresolved.IntheNovember1978generalelection,votersturneddownthe$966millionbondissuetorelocatethecapital.Inthesameelection,votersapprovedaninitiativewhichwouldrequirefulldisclosureofthecoststomovethecapitaLTherefore,itisimpossibleatthistimetoincludespecificassumptionsconcerningthecapitalmove.TheareawillcontinuetoserveasthetransportationhubofwesternAlaska,andtourismwilllikelycontinuetoincreaserapidly.Majorlocaldevelopmentseemsprobable.Fairbanks-TananaValleyArea'FairbanksisAlaska'ssecondlargestcity-thetradecenterformuchofAlaska'sInterior,theservicecenterforseveralmajormilitarybases,andthesiteofthemaincampusoftheUniversityofAlaskawithitsassociatedresearchcenter.TheoutlyingcommunitiesofNenana,Clear,NorthPole,andDeltaJunctionareincludedintheFairbanks-TananaValleyarea.Historically,theareaisfamousforitsgold.ThecompletionofthepipelineconstructionhastakenitstollinFairbanks.Theareaisexperiencingaseverelydepressedeconomy.Employmentintheconstructionindustryhasdecreasedtohalfofthepreviouspipelinelevel.Therehasbeenaslightincreaseinemploymentgeneratedbygovernment,distributiveindustries,andretail,trade.In1977-78,Fairbanksanditsoutlyingareasexperienceda16percentdeclineinpopulation.ThedecisionfavoringtheALCANroutefortheproposednaturalgaspipelinewasmadeinlate1977.Theproposedgaspipelinewillfollowtherouteofthetrans-AlaskaoilpipelineroutefromPrudhoeBaytoDeltaJunction.FairbankshasbeenselectedastheoperationheadquartersbytheNorthwestPipelineCompany,responsibleforconstructionandoperationofthegaspipeline.TheFairbanks-TananaValleyareawillprobablybeheavilyimpactedagainbythepipelineconstruction;however,amorestablepermanentemploymentbaseislikelytobecomeestablished.8 TheFairbanks-NorthStarBoroughhadanestimated.1977populationof44,262andanestimatedadditional8.000intheoutlyingcommunitieswithinthepowermarketarea.Thetotalpopulationdecreased10percentsince1974.9 PARTIV.EXISTINGPO'iERSYSTEMSUtilitySystemsandServiceAreasTheelectricutilitiesintheRailbeltpowermarketareaarelistedbelow,andareasnowreceivingelectricserviceareshownonfigure2.AdetailedlistingofpowergeneratingunitsisintheappendedBattellereport,table3.4.Anchorage-CookInletAreaAlaskaPowerAdministration(APA)AnchorageMunicipalLightandPower(AML&P)ChugachElectricAssociation(CEA)MatanuskaElectricAssociation(MEA)RomerElectricAssociation(REA)Romer(Standby)Seldovia,EnglishBay,PortGrahamSewardElectricSystem(SES)Fairbanks-TananaValleyAreaFairbanksMunicipalUtilitySystem(FMUS)GoldenValleyElectricAssociation(GVEA)l/MajorgenerationsuppliedbyCEAsystem.InstalledNameplate2/CapacityMW-.30.0121.1345.71/0.31/1.85.51/69.6219.211Consistsof45MWhydro.Alltherestarefuel-fired(80%gasturbine).10 11Figure2APA12/78..~ ThesetotalsdifferfromtheBattelleappendedreportbecausethereportincludessomeplannedunitsnotinstalledin1977aswellasuseofsomeratingsotherthannameplate.APAoperatestheEklutnahydroelectricprojectandmarketswholesalepowertoCEA,AML&P,andMEA.AML&PservestheAnchorageMunicipalarea.CEAsuppliespowertotheAnchoragesuburbsandsurroundingruralareas,andprovidespoweratwholesaleratestoREA,SES,andMEA.TheHEAserviceareacoversthewesternportionoftheKenaiPeninsula,includingSeldovia,acrossthebayfromHomer:MEAservesthetownofPalmerandthesurroundingruralareaintheMatanuskaandSusitnaValleys.TheutilitiesservingtheAnchorage-CookInletareaarenowlooselyinterconnectedthroughfacilitiesofAPAandCEA.AnemergencytieisavailablebetweentheAML&PandAnchorageareamilitaryinstallations.FMUSservestheFairbanksmunicipalarea,whileGVEAprovidesservicetotheruralareas.TheFairbanksareapowersuppliershavethemostcompletepowerpoolingagreementintheState.FMUS,GVEA,theUniver-sityofAlaska,andmostofthemilitarybaseshaveanarrangementwhichincludesprovisionsforsharingreservesandenergyinterchange.ThedeliverypointforUpperSusitnapowertotheGVEAandFMUSsystemsisassumedatasubstationofGVEAnearFairbanks.OthersmallpowergeneratingsystemsintheFairbanks-TananaValleyareawereincludedindeterminingthepowerrequirementsoftheregion.Theyinclude:Fairbanks-TananaValleyAreaAlaskaPowerandTelephoneCompany(TokandDotLakevicinity)NorthwayPowerandLightCompany(Northwayvicinity)InstalledCapacityill,]2.280.48NationalDefensePowerSystemsThesixmajornationaldefenseinstallationsinthepowermarketareaare:Anchoragearea--ElmendorfAirForceBaseFortRichardson12 Fairbanksarea--ClearAirForceBaseEielsonAirForceBaseFortGreelyFortWainwrightEachmajorbasehasitsownsteamplantthatisusedforpowerandforcentralspaceheating.ExceptforClearAirForceBase,eachisinter-connectedwiththelocalutility.Numeroussmallisolatedinstallationsarenotincludedinthisstudy.Inthepast,nationaldefenseelectricgenerationhasbeenamajorportionofthetotalinstalledcapacity.Withtheprojectea.stabilityofmilitarysitesandthegrowtqoftheutilities,thenationaldefenseinstallationwillbecomealesssignificantpartofthetotalgeneratingcapacity.IndustrialPowerSystemsThreeindustrialplantsontheKenaiPeninsulamaintaintheirownpower-plants,butareinterconnectedwiththeHEAsystem.TheUnion76ChemicalDivisionplantgeneratesitsbasicpowertosatisfyitsenergyneeds,receivingonlystandbycapacityfromHEA.TheKenailiquifiednaturalgasplantbuysenergyfromHEA,buthasi~sownstandbygeneration.TesoroRefinerybuysfromHEAandalsosatisfiespartofitsownneeds.Otherself-suppliedindustrialgeneratorsincludeoilplatformandpipelineterminalfacilitiesintheCookInletarea.ExistingGenerationCapacityTable1providesasummaryofexistinggeneratingcapacity.Thetablewasgenerallycurrentasof1978;TheAnchorage-CookInletarea·hadatotalutilityinstalledcapacityof504.5MWin1977-78.Naturalgas-firedturbineswerethepredominantenergysourcewith435.1MW.Hydroelectriccapacityof45MWwasavailablefromtwoprojects,EklutnaandCooperLake.Steamturbinescomprised14.5MW.Dieselgeneration,mostlyinstandbyservice,accountedfortheremaining9.8MW.TheFairbanks-TananaValleyareautilitieshadatotalinstalledcapacityof288.8MWin1977.Gasturbines(oil-fired)providedthelargestblockofpowerintheareawithaninstalledcapacityof203.1MW.Steamturbinegenerationprovided53.5MWofpoweranddieselgeneratorscontributed32.1MWtothearea.13 AreaTable1~ILBELTAREAGENERATIONCAPACITYSununary-1977UpperSusitnaProjectPowerMarketAnalysisInstalledCapacity-MWDieselGasSteamHydro.Int.Comb.TurbineTurbineTotalAnchorage-CookInletutilitySystemNationalDefenseIndustrialSystemSubtotalFairbanks-TananaValleyutilitySystemNationalDefenseSubtotal45.045.09.89.210.229.332.114.046.1435'.114.8449.9203.1203.114.540.555.0.53.563.0116.5504.549.725.0579.2288.877.0365.8Notes:Source:Themajorityofthedieselgenerationisinstandbystatus.Roundingcausesdifferencesbetweensununationsofthepartsandthetotalsshown.utilityreportstoAlaskaPublicutilityCommissiontotheDepartmentofEnergy,theAlaskaAirCommand,theoilandgascompanies,andAPAfiles.(MinordifferencesexistbetweenthistableandtheappendedBa~telleReport.)APA11/7814 PlannedGenerationCapacityThetwomajorutilitiesintheAnchorage-CookInletarea,~~L&PandCEA,plantoaddatotalofapproximately420MWinstalledcapacitytotheirexistingsystembetween1979and1985.~~&Pplanstoaddal6.5-Ml-lcombinedcyclesystemtotheirexistingcombustionturbine.Inaddition,CEAhasplanstocompletethe230-kvinterconnectionloopwithMEA.InDecember1978,GVEAdecidedtopostponedevelopmentoftheirproposedHealyIIsteamturbinesystem(104MW)untilmorefavorableeconomicconditionsprevail.AunitbyunitbreakdownofplannedgeneratingsystemsispresentedintheappendedBattellereport,table3.8.15 PARTV.POWERREQUIREMENTSIIntroductionThissummarizestheanalysesofhistoricdataandestimatesoffutureneedsinthepowermarketareas.Thestudyexaminesindetailelectricutilitystatistics1970to1977withspecialefforttoidentifychangesinusepatternsrelatedtoconservationmeasuressincethe1973oilembargo.Estimatesoffutureutilitypowerneedsarederivedfromestimatesofindividualenergyuseandareapopulation.PopulationprojectionsweredevelopedbytheUniversityofAlaska,InstituteofSocialandEconomicResearch(ISER).Theindividualuseforecastwasestimatedbyassumedconservation-inducedchangesinkwh/capitagrowthrates.Theendresultsareforecastsofnetgeneration(kwh)andpeakloaddemand(kw).Thethreeenergyusesectorsanalyzedinthisstudyare:UtilityIncludesallutilitieswhichserveresidentialandcommercial/industrialcustomers.,NationalDefense-Includesallmilitaryinstallations.Self-SuppliedIndustry-Includeslimitednumberofheavyindustries,i.e.,naturalgasandoilprocessingindustriesontheKenaiPeninsulawhichgeneratetheirownpower.Thestudyassumesthattheseindustrieswillpurchaseenergyifit'becomeseconomicallyfeasible.Somehaveinterchangeagreementswithlocalutilities.Evaluationsofmonthlyenergydistributionandinstalledcapacityrequirementsareincludedandarepremisedoncharacteristicsofareapowerdemands.DataThispresentsthebasicparametersusedintheanalysesleadingtotheSusitnaPowerHarketforecastassumptions.ThehistoricaldatasummarizestheAnchorage-CookInletandFairbanks-TananaValleyareaswhichcomprisetheRailbeltarea.Eachareaisdividedintoutility,nationaldefense,andself-suppliedindustrialcomponents(Fairbanks-TananaValleyareahasnoknownsignificantself-suppliedindustries).Theutilitycomponentisdividedintofoursectors:Commercial-Industrial,TotalSales,andNetGeneration.16Residenti,\l, Data:-wascollectedfromgovernmentagencies,fromcommands,bycorrespondencepublicationsandnewsmedia.utilityandindustryreportstovariousutilitiesdirectly,fromAlaskamilitarywithindustry,andfromvariousstatisticalBasicdataneededforthe1970-1977analysisarepresentedontables2,3,and4includedisutilityannualenergyandcustomersforeachsector,national.defenseandindustrialannualenergyconsumption,utilityandnationaidefenseannualpeakload,industrialinstalledcapacity,annualpopulation,andaverageannualemployment.Inaddition,utilitynetgeneration,listedontables5and6,wascompiledforthe1960-1977period.Aspartoftheforecastingfoundation,thefollowinghistoricalchronologyindicatesfluctuationsaffectingRailbeltenergyuse.1970.construction,Aboveaverag.eUncertaintyandapproval.temp~rature.concerningtheoilNativelandclaimspipelinedesign,1egislationpending.1971.temperature.Uncertaintyconcerningpipeline.Belowaverage1972.Uncertaintyconcerningpipeline.Coldestyearofperiod.1973.StartoffuelcrisisandconservationpublicityinDecember.Belowaveragetemperature.1974.Startofpipelineconstruction.Nearaveragetemperature.1975.ture.Peakofpipelineconstructionactivity.Nearaveragetempera-1976.Startofpipelineconstruction"wind-down."ElectricpowercableacrossKnikArmoutofserviceforanextendedperiod(allbutonecircuit).Aboveaveragetemperature.1977.Oilstartedflowinginpipeline.Warmestyearof.period.ResidentialconstructionboominAnchorage.Largeincre.ase.innon-residentialauthorizationsissued...17 Table2BASICPOWERANDENERGYFORECASTINGDATAANCHORAGE-COOKINLETAREA(INCLUDINGSEWARD)UpperSusitnaProjectPowerMarketAnalysisUtilityEnergySales(GWH)NetGeneration(GWH)YearResi.Comm./Indu.Total1./UtilityYNat.Def.'ilIndu.1970310.5342.3678.7744.1156.21.651971369.7393.9.792.5886.9161.21972421.6454.0911.61,003.8166.545.31973459.5514.81,012.2 1,108.5160.61974496.1552.81,087.41,189.7155.145.31975595.1631.91,270.6 1,413.0132.81976677.6738.71,462.-21,615.3140.31977741.0813.41,600.81,790.1130.669.5UtilityCustomersPeakLoad(MW)YearResi.Comm./Indu.TotalUtilityNat.Def.Indu.!:j197039,2715,23045,042165.234.612.3197142,5015,58148,670184.8197246,7246,10453,278212.833.9'12.3197349,3076,49156,28022·9.9197452,5856,79859,893257.2.32.612.3197556,8017,47864,797345.8197661,8818,22070,622349"9197768,3209,22178,066423.940.524.8PopulationEmploymentCivilianTotalAvg.Annual1970135,963149,42847,4081971145,108159,04651,0921972155,084167,76554,3291973160,162174,28057,1571974165,938179,54465,9191975196,320209,04978,7861976207,090219,33783,6041977222,424234,67488,86911Excludesdeliveriestonationaldefense.21Totalretailsalesofenergy+non-revenueenergyused+losses.31Includesreceiptsfromutilities,excludesdeliveriestoutilities.41Self-suppliedindustrialdataisinstalledcapacityratherthanpeakload.GWH=millionKWHMWthousandKWKW=KilowattAPA11/7818 Table3BASICPOWERANDENERGYFORECASTINGDATAFAIRBANKS-TANANAVALLEYAREAUpperSusitnaProjectPowerMarketAnalysisUtilityEnergySales(GWH)NetGeneration(GWH)YearResi.Comm./Indu.Totall/Utility2:../Nat.DeL)j197091.7108.3210.2239.3203.51971112.4 119.8244.3275.5201.41972122.3 127.3262.9306.7203.31973134.4139.5282.3323.7200.01974155.8150.3323.0353.8197.01975193.0196.3409.2450.8204.41976195.9204.2420.5468.5217.51977200.7221.6442.7482.9206.8UtilityCustomersPeakLoad(MW)YearResi.Comm./Indu.TotalUtilityNat.Def.197010,3641,72112,26856.344.4197111,0141,77912,94765.3197211,5841,83913,61166.641.4197311,9311,92914,04172.7197412,8322,06915,08487.540.8197514,0252,24716,447110.0197615,569.2,43518,179102.6197716,7092,58019,463118.941.0PopulationCivi.HanTotalEmploymentAvg.Annual1970197119721973197419751976197742,31043,18845,51645,39651,13760,88458,051(e)47,155(e)52,14150,58552,38352,24657,83667,01163,76252,15515,68115,81716,87316,79421,96034,45134,32527,3851/Excludesdeliveriestonationaldefense.2/Totalsales+non-revenueuse+losses.3/Includesreceiptsfromutilities,excludesdeliveriestoutilities.i/Self-suppliedindustrialdataisinstalledcapacityratherthanpeakload.GWH=millionKWHMW=thousandKWAPA9/7819 Table4BASICPOvlliRANDENERGYFORECASTINGDATARAILBELTAREAUpperSusitnaProjectPowerMarketAnalysisUtilityEnergySales(GWH)NetGeneration(GWH)YearResieComm./Indu.TotalUtilityNat.DeLIndu.Total-1970402.2450.6888.9983.4359.71.61,344.71971482.1513.71,036.81,162.4362.625(e)1,550.01972543.9581.31,174.51,310.5369.845.31,725.61973593.9'654.31,294.51,432.2360.645.3(e)1,838.11974651.9 703.1,1,410.41,543.5352.145.31,940.91975788.1828.21,679.81,863.8337.245.3(e)2,246.31976873.5942.91,882.72,083.8357.845.3(e)2,486.91977941.71,035.02,043.52,273.0337.469.52,679.9UtilityCustomersPeakLoad(MW)YearResieComm./Indu.TotalUtilityNat.DeLIndu.Total-197049,6356,95157,310221.579.012.3312.8197153,5157,38061,617250.177(e)12.3(e)339.4197258,3087,94366,889279.475.312.3367.0197361,2388,42070,321302.674(e)12.3(e)388.9197465,4178,86774,977344.773.412.3430.4197570,8269,72581,244455.873(e)12.3(e)541.1197677,45010,65488,801452.576(e)12.3(e)540.8197785,02911,80197,529542.881.524.8649.1TotalAvg.AnnualPopulationEmployment1970201,56963,0891971209,63166,9091972220,14871,2021973226,52673,9511974237,38087,8791975276,060113,2371976283,099117,9291977286,829116,254APA11/7820 Table 5 NET GENERATION (GWH) ANCHORAGE-COOK INLET AREA Upper Susitna Project Power Market Analysis (Includes receipts of electric energy from military;excludes electric energy deliveries to military) Year AML&P CEA APA MEA HEA KU SES Total Growth %----- - 1960 0.8 27.5 187.6 0.1 8.2 1.8 5.7'231.6 1961 3.2 44.8 193.8 0.1 3.6 2.0 6.2 253.7 9.5 J.962 20.0 101.8 150.3 0.2 0 2.3 3.7 278.2 9.7 1963 55.7 100.5 152.7 0.2 0 2.7 0 311.8 12.1 1964 97.3 94.5 146.1 0.5 1.2 3.8 0 343.4 10.1 1965 101.2 167.4 132.1 0.6 1.4 4.1 0 406.8 18.5 N 1966 108.6 204.6 138.2 0.7 1.4 5.2 0 458.7 12.8f-'. 1967 100.1 217.1 178.5 0.8 1.5 6.7 0 504.6 10.0 1968 125.3 280.0 155.5 0.8 1.7 10.1 0 573.4 6.5 1969 148.1 314.6 158.2 0.9 2.2 8.9 0.1 633.0 17.8 1970 186.0 385.5 154.7 1.1 2.4 9.0 0.1 738.8 16.7 1971 24,5.3 476.6 144.9 1.3 2.7 8.0 0.1 878.9 19.0 1972 270.0 554.2 164.0 1.5 3.3 .7.0 0.1 ~1.000.1 13.8 1973 359.0 657.3 96.3 0.3 3.6 --0.1 1.116.5 11.6 1974 389.6 678.4 1.1 --4.2 --0.1 1.197.4 7.2 1975 384.3 888.8 135.1 --3.4 --3.2 1.414.9 18.2 1976 442.9 1.054.5 118.5 --0.5 --1.5 1.617.3 14.3 1977 420.3 1.179.7 203.6 --0.5 --0.8 1.804.9 U.S AML&P CEA APA ,MEA IlEA KU SES -Anchorage Municipal Light and Power -Chugach Electric Association -Alaska Power Administration -Matanuska Electric Association -Horner Electric Association -Kenai Utilities -Seward Electric System APA 11-78 Table6NETGENERATION(GWH)FAIRBANKS-TANANAVALLEYAREAUpperSusitnaProjectPowerMarketAnalysis(Includesreceiptsofelectricenergyfrommilitary;excludeselectricenergydeliveriestomilitary)YearFMUGVEAAP&TDLENP<otalGrowth%196036.724.40.10.661.8196138.829.40.10.668.9U.S196242.333.31.0.10.677.212.1196345.439.11.20.10.686.411.9196448.453.61.50.10.6104.220.6196549.556.61.80.10.6108.64.2196652.667.02.10.10.6122.412.7196755.975.92.00.20.6134.610.0196864.097.92.00.20.6164.722.4196972.2118.12.10.20.6193.317.4197085.6150.21.90.2 0.6238.623.41971106.7164.92.40.20.6274.715.11972120.3182.22.60.20.8306.111.41973115.4202.22.70.20.9321.45.01974123.0214.33.50.21.2342.16.41975137.2286.93.90.21.6429.725.61976139.6315.14.20.21.4460.47.11977133.5346.34.50.21.4485.85.5FMU-FairbanksMunicpalUtilitiesGVEA-GoldenValleyElectricAssociationAP&T-AlaskaPowerandTelephone(Tok)DLE-DotLakeElectric(PurchasedbyAP&Tin1978)NP&L-NorthwayPowerandLight22 AnalysisDetailedinvestigationsofrelationshipsamongthebasicdatacomponentsarelistedintables2,3,.and4.Analysiswasdoneseparatelyforeachmajorsector(utility,nationaldefense,andself-suppliedindustry)withineachgeographicarea.UtilityTheanalysisofutilitydatasetouttodevelopassumptionsforfore-castingnetgenerationandpeakload.Investigationsevaluatedtheimpactofchangesinpopulation,employment,customers,weather,tariffs,andothereventsuponenergyuse.Theseevaluationsthenhelpedto:(1)determineifenergysectors(residential,commercial-industrial,totalsales)otherthannetgenerationneededtobeforecast;(2)determinewhichenergyratio(kwh/capita,kwh/employee,kwh/customer)touseintheforecastingprocedure;(3)developprocedureforforecastingutilityannualnetgenerationfromenergyuseassumptionsanddemographicparameters(population,employees,orcustomers);(4)determineloadfactorwithwhichtocalculatepeakloadforecastfromthenetgenerationforecast.Constants,smallamplitudecycles,ortrendsinrelationshipsamongtheenergyuseandcustomersectorswereinvestigatedforuseasforecastingaids.If,forinstance,theresidentialenergyuse/netgenerationratioremainedalmostconstantfrom1970through1977,onlynetgenerationneedbesubjectedtotheforecastingprocedure.Thesametypeofanalysiswasappliedtoenergyuseratios:alookforanaverageortrendtobeusedas.afactorinforecastingnetgeneration.Afterdevelopingthenetgenerationforecast,thepeakloadforecastwascalculatedusingenergyandanassumedloadfactor.Analysisofhistoricloadfactorsdeterminedanaverageortrendfromwhichtheassumedloadfactorwasderived.Forecastednetgenerationandtheassumedfutureloadfactorwerethenusedintheformula:Peakload=8,760hr/yr.xloadfactorxnetgeneration.TheevaluationsshowedamixofsimilarityandcontrastbetweenthetwoRailbeltareas.Inbothareas,themajorenergyusedeterminantswerethetrans-Alaskaoilpipelineconstructionandthefuelcrisisof1973-74.Othercorrelationswithweather,tariffs,etc.,seemedinsignificant.Forinstance,energygrowthincreasedinsomeyearsdespiteaboveaveragetemperatureswhichreducedenergyneed.Anchorage-CookInletAreaAnalysisproceduresresultedintheAnchorage-CookInletarea.Resultsfollowing23Theforegoingobservationsevaluationforthe (a)Observationsindicatenosignificantshiftinenergyusepatternsorinshareoftotalloadamongthevariousutilitysect.ors(residential,etc.).Theratiosamongthesectors(residential/totalsales;totalsales/netgeneration,etc.)remainedessentiallyconstantthroughthestudyperiod.Thiswastrueforbothenergyandcustomers.Therefore,onlyonesector--netgeneration--representsallsectorsintheforecast.(b)Energyrateofgrowthpercustomerandpercapitahadasignificantreductionafterthe1973-74fuelcrisis.The1973-77percapitaaveragegrowthratewasabouthalfthatfor1970-73.Itappearsthatconservationcan.beconsideredaninfluenceafter1973.(c)Eventsimpinginguponenergyusearelistedintheprevioussection.Between1973and1977,severaleventsbearrepeatingforemphasis:fuelcrisisin1974;startofpipelineconstructionin1974;peakpipelineactivityin1975;decreaseofpipelineactivityin1976and1977;cablesacrossKnikArm,whichcarryalargeshareofAnchorageene.rgy,wentoutofservicein1976;wa.rmerthanaverageweatherin1974,1976,andespecially1977.Yearlygrowthratesreflectedratherlargefluctuationsasdifferenthistoricaleventsinfluencedeachparameter.(ThisisarecurringphenomenoninAlaskanhistory).(d)Parameterswerenotinfluencedalikeasfigures3through8attest.Forinstance,customergrowth·reacted·toeventsinasteadierpatternthandidpopulationandemployment.Reasonsforthisaremorepeoplepercustomerandtimeneededforconnectingmorecustomerstoautilitysystemattheinitialonsloughtoflargedemographicgrowth.(e)Comparingtheenergyfluctuationswithothers,suchaspopulationandemployment,gaveameasureofcorrelationbetweenparameters.(Theenergyuseandcustomergrowthfluctuationscorrelatedonlyinpart;theirpatternsdidnotcoincideeveryyear).However,energyandpopu-lationgrowthratechangeswerecoincidentalforeveryyearbut1977.Thatis,whentheenergygrowthrateincreased,sodidthepopulationgrqwthrate;whenthepopulationgrowthratedecreased,sodidtheenergygrowthrate.(f)Energyuseandweathercomparisonswereinconclusive.Warmweatherdidnotbringcorrespondingreductioninenergyuse.Coldweatherincreasesinenergyusewereburiedinotherevents(pipelineconstruction,etc.).(g)Becausethenetgenerationkwh/capitaratioseemedtoreflecttheclosestcorrelations,particularlyinrecentyears,thisratioandpopulationwereusedtoforecastnetgenerationvaluesbetween1980and2025.(h)Valuesbasictotheforecastingassumptionsarethekwh/capitaratioaveraging3.8percentaverageannualgrowthbetween1973and1977andnetgenerationaveraging12.7percent.(i)Averageannualgrowthresultsaresummarizedontable7.Figures"3,4,and5aregraphsofpertinentelementsoftheanalysis.24 Fairbanks-TananaValleyAreaAnalysisResultsSomeoftheAnchorage-CookInletareaevaluationresultsapplyalsoto.theFairbanks-TananaValleyarea,othersdonot.ThefollowingobservationsparallelthoseofAnchorage-CookInlet.(a)Nosignificantshiftinenergyusepatternsorinshareoftotalloadamongthevariousutilitysectors(residential,etc.).Again,onlyonesector--netgeneration--needbeforecast.(b)EnergygrowthwassimilartothatofAnchorage(somewhatsmallerinthepre-1973period);butcustomer,population,andemployeegrowthweredifferentinthetwoareas.Consequently,theenergyusepercustomer,percapita,andperemployeeratiosindicatedifferentgrowthpatternsinFairbanks.ThelargeswingsofemploymentandpopulationinFairbanksduringpipelineconstructioncomparedtoalmostconstantpreconstructionvaluescloudcomparisonsofthetwoperiods.(c)Althoughtheeffectsofpipelineconstructionareevident,thepopu1ation/employeeratio(2.29averagethroughthestudyperiod)wasconstantenoughtoindicatethateitherpopulationoremploymentcanbeusedas.aforecastingparameter.(d)Theeffectsofweatheronenergyusecouldnotbedetected.Insomeyears,degreedayvariationswerenotinphasewithenergyusevariations.(e)Energyuse/capitaexhibitedwidervariationsthantheothertworatios,but,nevertheless,hadthenearesttoconstantaverageannualgrowthrates.Becauseofthisandtheotherobservations,netgenerationkwh/capitaandpopulationwereusedtoforecastnetgenera-tion.(f)AsintheAnchorage-CookInletarea,valuesbasictotheforecastingassumptionsarethenetgeneration/capitagrowth,averaging10.6percentperyear,andnetgenerationgrowth,averaging10.5percentperyearbetween1973and1977.(g).Growthrateresults.aresummarizedontable7.Figures6,7,and8aregraphsofsomepertinentelementsoftheanalysis.25 Table7AVERAGEANNUALUTILITYGROWTHSUMMARYANCHORAGE-COOKINLETAREAUpperSusitnaProjectPowerMarketAnalysisAvg.GrowthAvg.Growth1970·197319771970-19731973-1977EnergyGWHResidentialSales31046074114.0% 12.6%Commercial/Industrial34251581314.712.1TotalSales6791,0121,60114.212.1NetGeneration7441,1081,79014.212.7EnergyUse,kwh/CustomerResidential7,9079,31910,8465.63.8Commercial/Industrial65,44979,31088,2125.62.6TotalSales15,06817,98520,5066.03.3EnergyUse,kwh/CapitaResidential2,2842,8693,3328.03.8Commercial/Industrial2,5183,2143,6578.63.3TotalSales4,9926,3207,1978.33.3NetGeneration5,4736,9218,0488.03.t~Fairbanks-TananaValleyAreaAvg.GrowthAvg.Growth19701973 19771970-19731973-1977EnergyGWHResidentialSales9213420113.4%10.7%Commercial/Industrial1081402229.112.2TotalSales21028244310.211.9NetGeneration23932448310.810.5EnergyUse,kwh/CustomerResidential8,85211,26212,0108.31.7Commercial/Industrial62,93172,30385,8994.84.4TotalSales17,13420,10422,7465.43.1EnergyUse,kwh/CapitaResidential1,7592,5723,84813.510.6Commercial/Industrial2,0772,6704,2498.712.3TotalSales4,0315,4038,48810.312.0NetGeneration4,5896,1969,25910.510.6APA11/7826 Figure31:}\JERCYSECl'ORPATICS-,=50.3%46.1%Avg.ResidentialSalesTotalSales~._-::,:--~-::-:--=-=-=-="--=--..L----------oHE'r24342·F---------""""-""-~-=-=_::':_:::--::::-r.·--..""-=-:;.:-::::.:-:.:-::.;~"'R;;i~ntin1Sales41'I40~_--=------!-I------+I------+I-------;.I.lN~-e:.:t~G~c:;;-n:~e:::r~a:.:t=tJ:::o:::n.:-.---.:.A:-\+·.g:..,=--..:4-:..:1:.:...7:....:0..J19j70197119721973.1974197519761977YEZ\PSi\i,Q!C)"l'N;E-CCOI:~nrLr.:rAT\F..AUpperSusitnaProjectPowerMarketAnalysis51r--_-=-----------------~~---------~90~[r.Commercial-Industrialsal0'S-----Total-Sales---·--Avg.48I~4"1I~4~-----.-/45•4418001700160015001400130012001100T1000900Al\;1'-l'Ul\LTh'ERGYGeNErATEDOPOSOLDN~CHORi\GE-CCOI\INLJ-:::T}\1'W1\UpperSusitnaProjectPowerMarketAnalysisYEi\PSAPA12/7827 Figure411,000i\NNUl\J,ENERGiUSEFERC,:\PITl\j\J~DPERCUS'lUJERl\.NC!!ORP.GE-CCOKINfJ:rAHE..l\UpperSusitnaProjectPowerMarketAnalysis10,0009,000•8,0007,0006,0005,000•4,0003,000=1977197619'/51------'1--------{-----:i------ll-------li-------j;------J19711972197319742,00019'70APA12/7828 250,000225,000200,000175,000W...J0..oW/50,0000..U.o(f)0::W .m/25,OCO:2:.::JZ/00,000-75,000ANNU.::\LPOPULATION,Er.;iPLOVr.,;li::NT,ANDUTiLITYCUSTOP.1ERSANCHORAGE-COm,\INLETAREAUpperSusitnaProjectPowerMarketAnalysisFigure525,oool-----!-1---'--L.I.JI.---...l...-.__-Jl19701971/972/973/974197519761977YEARSAPA1/7929 Figure619771976/975-----------Avg.=46.4%ResidentialSalesAvg.=41.3%.~_NetGenerationResidentialSalesTotalSales1972Commercial-IndustrialSales.TotalSalesAvg.=48.9%'dentialsales(G~)Res~/97/UpperSusitnaProjectPowerMarketAnalysis'alsales,l_Industr~.commerc:l.a19731974YEARSANNUALENERGYGENERATEDORSOLDFAIRBANKS-TANANAVALLEYAREAENERGYSECTORRATIOSFAIRBANKS-TANAN'AVALLEYAREAUpperSusitnaProjectPowerMarketfu~alysis500>-~a::100wzw:x:4003:.~Zo-..J300..J~u:x:~200Z--525048-~460Z-440I-42<ta::40383619700l.-__---'-..L.~__l......J_---'-------I19701971/97219731974197519761977.YEARS.30APA1/79 Figure7ANNUALENERGYUSEPERCAPITAANDPERCUSTOMERFAIRBANKS,-TANANAVALLEYAREAUpperSusitnaProjectPowerMarketAnalysis(Ttl.)2000300010004000ob-----;~--'"7.19~7~2;---,~9;:;73:;;:-----;-;,9~7;:;4~--;1;97;;5;--~1~97:;6;--~19771970·197114,00010,00011,00012,00013,000-.::c:90003:~8000Z-~7000)--C)a::·60ooIJJ..ZlJJ5000YE~RS31APA1/79 Figure8ANNUALPOPULANDUTI70,000rUpperSusitnaProjectPowerMarketlL~alysis- 1Popul·arion'rOta-_lation-"'-lJ."an,£,01"1.oVJ-.,".'.Average~lEmployment60,000.20,00050,000W..Ja..ow40,000t:&.lL.oen0.::Wm30POO:E::)z10,000ResidentialCustomers"·eommercial-rndustrialCustomers~_'-----...i.----.....-----l----oJ.---------.....J,------It910/97/1972/9731974197519761977,ri'ARSAPA1/79 NationalDefenseEvaluationofhistoricalnationaldefensedataresultedinnetgenerationandpeakloadaverages.TheanalysisencompassedtheU.S.ArmyandAirForceinstallationsintheAnchorageandFairbanksareas.Nodefinitetrendssurfaced--onlyasmall,cyclicdecreaseintheAnchorageareanetgenerationandanincreaseinpeakload.IntheFairbanksarea,netgenerationincreasedslightlyandpeakloaddecreased.Totalnationaldefenseisabout15percentofutilityforbothnetgenerationandpeakload.Self-SuppliedIndustryRailbeltindustryandtheupperKenaiPeninsulacomplexshowednosignificantchangeincapacityandenergygenerationuntil1977whenthechemicalplantexpanded.Therefore,theanalysisconsistedofaplantfactordeterminationonly.Otherfactorsneededinforecastingarediscussedasassumptionsinthenextsection.EnergyandPowerDemandForecastsThissectionpresentsfutureenergyandpowerrequirementestimatesdevelopedfromthepreviousanalyses.Workforthenewestimatesconsistedof:(1)usingtheanalysestoobtainforecastingassumptions;(2)usingtheassumptionsinforecastingutilitynetgeneration/capita;(3)combiningnetgeneration/capitawithInstituteofSocialandEconomicResearch(ISER)populationprojectionstoobtaintheutilitynetgenerationforecast,andforecastingnationaldefenseandindustrygenerationfrompertinentassumptions;and(4)combiningthenetgenerationforecastwithloadfactorsresultingfromthehistoricaldataanalysistoobtainpeakload(powerrequirement)forecasts.AssumptionsandMethodologyPopulation-TheISEReconometricmodeloftheSouthcentralRegionWaterStudy(LevelB)furnishedhighandlowrangepopulationforecasts.ThemodeldisaggregatedtheAnchorage-CookInletareafromastatewidepopulationforecast.Norecent,applicableforecastofFairbanks-TananaValleypopulationwasavailable;therefore,APAassumedstatewidegrowthratesfromtheISERmodelappliedtotheFairbanks-TananaValleyareas.(Seetable8).Utility-Assumptions,basedontheprecedinganalyses,leadtothenetgenerationandpeakloadforecast.~t~~rationis.~~Q~~~~~gf~~e!!eJ::gy~u~~"~~P~.E~_~cap:i,j:Cl,_?!!£~J:~~1E:<::t:_~~~~E£Rl!lA!~n.PeakloaddemandisderivedfromnetgenerationandtheassumedutiIityloadfactor.Multiplyingthesegrowthratesbyforecasted1980valuesofkwh/capitaresultedintheenergyuseestimates.33 Table8POPULATIONESTIMATES1980-2025RAILBELTAREAUpperSusitnaProjectPowerMarketAnalysisIIStatewide)jFairbanks-Tanana21Anchorage-CookInlet-Valley-YearHighLowHighLowHighLow1980270,200 239,200513,766500,22562,02060,390(1985320,000260,900640,718563,30377,35068,0101990407,100299,200790,042618,39795,37074,6601995499,200353,000947,312680,286114,36082,1302000651,300424,4001,157,730743,034139,76089,7002025904,000491,1001,484,784820,369179,24099,040Notes:*Nomid-rangeestimatesareshownbecause,whentheforecastsweredone,ISER1Ihadmadeonlythehighandlowprojections.Acomparisonofthemid-rangeforecastalreadyperformed(seetextformethod)withoneusingthemid-rangepopulation,whenreceived,indicatednoreasontore-dotheforecasts.*Valuesshownincludenationaldefensepopulation11FromIser,SouthcentralAlaska'sEconomyandPopulation:AbaseStudy1965-2025.September1978withDecember1978revisions.11Calculatedfromstatewidegrowthrates.34 Sincetheratiosofresidential,commercial-industrialandtotalsalesenergytonetgenerationremainconstant,netgenerationisassumed"tobeanappropriateforecastingparameter.Theevaluationsindicatecthattheothersectorsdonotneedindividualforecasting.Thebasicenergyuse(netgenerationkwh/capita)basedontheAnchorage-CookInletareavalueofgrowth110m"1973-77andanassumedcontinuationofthepost-1973conservation-trend.AsmentionedintheAnchorage-CookInletareaevaluations,aconservationtrendwasapparentwhencomparingenergyusegrowthratesfor1973-77#and1970-73(seetable7).Tiedtothisistheassumptionofgraduallyincreasingeffectivenessoffutureconservationprogramscoupledwithperhapsup'perlimitsofelectricenergyuse.Thesearereflectedinanaverageannualgrowthbytheyear2000or2percentforhighrange,1percentformid-range,and0percentforlowrange.Theseassumptionsresultindecreasedgrowthratesforeachfive-yearincrement,asshownbelow:TimePeriodHighMidLow1980-19854.5%3.5%2.5%1985-19903.5%3.0%2.0%1990-19953.0%2.5%1.5%1995-20002.5%2.0%1.0%2000-20252.0%1".0%0%MultiplyingthesegrowthratesbyfgIE:C:::Cisted.1980:v:alues...,..Q:L1';F1:lLC:::Ci:pt1::§-I~'§J!H~J,.!!.!11~~11~Eg'.l...1l1:l~.~~!Jl11§:.:t:.E:S•The1980mid-range:v:alueofkwh/capitawasderi:v:edfromthe1973-1977a:v:erageannualgrowthofnetgeneration.The1980netgenerationwasestimated.TheAnchorage-CookInletmid-rangeassumptionO~~~c:::gAtantltla.l~oadgrowthr~teforl~7?=~gnet..generation~~c:~Ci!I1E:fromahistoricarLr~7~percent.Therespect1.ve-Fair1:?~~llI<;§::t~!1~riCiYCillgy...valueswere10~5pel:'ceI1~i3.ssuIned,10.6percenthistorical."t1i.,~=raIlg~1980kwhlCCiPit~wascalculatedusingtheestimatednetgenerationand~..~""""""""'"""~""""""""""..................•............•.......•.......~~....'.~~-..•~..~~..~..~.....•."..~.~..~~......•,,~~prQJ.~£1::~~..RSll'.ul.§:!:i,.Q!!.The19.?O11i.gfi"::..-::a:i1<i.lowrange.average'annualkwh/ca,pi:tCi:gl:'()wthr:a1:.~~f()rFa.i.rt>al1lci3=1'atlanaValleyW"er.~assumed.120percenta.Il(i~Q:p:erCE:lltofthe'.ci3.lculatedmid..ratlgeyaluerespeet:i:v:ely.Comparable:v:aluesforAnchorage-CookInletwere130percentand80percent.Thedifferencesbetweenthet",.;oareasreflectpopulationestimatesandanattempttoderi:v:eareasonable1977-80transitionperiodcoupledw~ththepopulationestimates.Peakload(}fW)forecastswerecalculatedusinga50percentloadfactor.Anchorage-CookInletarealoadfactora:v:eraged51.9percentbetween1970and1977and51.0percentbetween1973and1977.Fairbanksareaa:v:eraged48.9percentand48.4percentinthesameperiods.1/ConservationhereincludesresultsofthefuelcrlSlSandperhapsofnationwidepublicityontheneedforsa:v:ingenergy.Otherfactorsmaybein:v:ol:v:ed,butnoothere:v:entsareascoincidentalwithreducedenergyuseasisthefuelcrisis.35 NationalDefense-HistoricaldatafromintheAnchorageandFairbanksareasassumptionstobe:andAirForceinstallationsindicatereasonableenergy1.0percentannualgrowthformid-rangeforecast1percentforhighrange,and-1percentforlowrange.2.A50percentloadfactorwasassumedforusewithenergy(netgeneration)toobtainpeakload.Self-Sup:.pJiedIndustries-Thefollowingassumptionsweredevelopedfromexistingdataandconditions,consultatioQswithmanyknowledgeablepeopleingovernmentandindustry,andfromreportsonfuturedevelopments..1.Industrieswillpurchasepowerandenergyifeconomicallyfeasible.2.ForecastbasedonlistingintheMarch1978Battellereport.3.Highrangeincludesexistingchemicalplant,LNGplant,andrefineryaswellasnewLNGplant,refinery,coalgasificationplant,miningandmineralprocessingplants,timberindustry,cityandaluminumsmelterorsomeotherlargeenergyintensiveindustry.4.Mid-rangeincludesalloftheaboveexceptthealuminumsmelter.5.Lowrangeincludesalllistedunderhighrangeexceptthealuminumsmelterandthenewcapital.6.Insomeinstances,high,mid,andlowrangemaybedifferentiatedbyamountofinstalledcapacityaswellasthetypeofinstallationsassumed.7.Noself-suppliedindustriesareassumedfortheFairbanks-TananaValleyarea.Anyindustrialgrowthhasbeenassumedeither(1)includedinutilityforecastsor(2)notlikelytobeinterconnectedwiththeareapowersystems.8.Netgenerationforecastcalculatedfromforecastedcapacityandaplantfactorof60percent.TheISERmodelassumedthefollowingCookInletareaindustrialscenario.Itiscomparedtoindustriesassumedforthes~;J.f-suppliedindustrialforecastsofthisreport.36 ISERCookInletIndustTialScenariosAssumptionsSelf-SuppliedIndustriesForecastHIGHRANGEOiltreatmentandshippingfacilitiesSmallLNGBelugaCoal(40employeesinshipping)Newcapital(2,750employees1982-84)Refinery-petrochemicalcomplex1/PacificLNG-BottomfishindustryOilleasedevelopmentNonewpulpmillsorsawmillsExistingrefinery(2.4M1{)ExistingLNGplant(.4to.6~w)Coalgasification(0to250MW)2/Newcity(0to30MW)-Newrefinery(0to15.5MW)NewLNGplant(0to17MW)'Miningandmineralplants(5to50}fW)Timber(2to12M1{)Existingchemicalplant(22to26MW)Aluminumsmelterorotherenergyintensi,industry(0to280MW)MIDRANGE1..1LOWRA't\lGEPacificLNGNewLNGplant(0to17}fW)Existingrefinery(2.4MW)ExistingLNGplant(.4MW)Existingchemicalplant(22M1{)Coalgasification(0to10MW)Newrefinery(0to15.5MW)Miningandmineralplants(0to25MW)Timber(2to12MW)l/ArecentdecisionbyALPETCOchangesthistotheValdezarea.Thechangesinvolvedwerenotenoughtowarrantforecastrevisions.yPartofcoalgasificationcouldbeequivalentto"BelugaCoal,"butitismuchmorethan1t40employeesinshipping.It1/Atthetimethisforecastandanalysiswasperformed,noISERmid-rangeprojectionsofpopulationsandemploymenthadbeendeveloped.37 mid,andlowforecastsuseandtherangefinalthehighenergyusea'mid-rangealiketodefenseselliedindustrialforecasts,,,erecalculatedfromtheassumptionsandsummarizedwiththeutilitiesontable10fortheAnchorage-CookInletareaandtable11fortheFairbanks-TananaValleyarea.Railbelttotals,bothpeakloaddemandandnetgeneration,aresummarizedontable12.Appropriategraphsfolloweachtableonfigures9and10forAnchorage-CookInlet,11and12forFairbanks-TananaValley,and.13and14fortheRailbelttotals.Trendlinesbasedon1973-1977averageannualenergygrowtharesuperimposedontheenergygraphs,figures9,11,and13.1973-1977AverageAnnualGrowthAnchorage-CookInletFairbanks-TananaValleyRailbelt10.9%7.1%9.9%Historicalandforecastenergyusecomparisonsaresummarizedintable9.ComparisonwithOtherForecastsThissectioncomparesthepresentforecast(1978)withtwopreviousforecasts,andforecastsavailablefromvariousutilities.Thepreviousforecastsincludedthe1976reportandits1977update.The1977updateused1975criteriaandassumptions.Seetable13foracomparisontabulation.Ingeneral,thepresentforecastsproducedvalueslessthanthepreviousones.38 Table9NETANNUALPERCAPITAGENERATION(K\{H)RAILBELTAREAUTILITIESUpperSusitnaProjectPowerMarketAnalysisHistoricalHighMidLowHistoricalHighMidLow19701977199020002025Anchorage-CookInletArea4980763016,30021,40035,10014,00017,50022,40012,00013,600 13,600Fairbanks-TananaValleyArea565510,24018,40024,00039,00016,30020,30026,00014,10015,800 15,900APA11/78Energyusepercapitanearlydoubledinbothareasinthehistoricalsevenyears.Growinguseofelectricspaceheating,electriccookinginplaceofgasandoil,andmanyotherpossibilitiescanjustifytheassumptionsshown.Again,conservationhasbeenfactoredinthrough,decreasinggrowthrates.39 Table 10 POWER AND ENERGY REQUIREMENTS ANCHORAGE-COOK INLET AREA Upper Susitna Project Power Market Analysis PEAK Po\VER 1970 1973 1 9 7 7 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2025MWMWMWMWMWMWMWMWMWUTILITY.High 620 1,000 1,515 2,150 3,180 7,240Mid1652304245708101,115 1,500 2,045 3,370Low5256508201,040 1,320 1,520NATIONALDEFENSE High 31 32 34 36 38 48Mid35 3 3 41 30 3 0 30 30 .30 30Low2928 2 6 2ft 24 18+:-INDUSTRIAL 0 High 32 344 399 541 683 '1,615Mid•12 12 25 32 64 119 1 9 9 278 660Low27597087104250TOTAL High 683 1,376 1,948 2,727 3,901 8,903Mid2122754906329041,264 1,729 2,353 4,060Low5817379161,151 1,Ll l18 1,788 ANNUAL ENERGY GHH GWH GWH GWH GWH GWH G\.JH GWH GWH---------------UTILITY High 2,720 4,390 6,630 9,430 13,920 31,700Mid7ft41,108 1,790 2,500 3,530 4,880 6,570 8,960 14,750Low2,300 2,840 3,590 4 560 5,770 6,670NATIONALDEFENSE High 135 142 149 157 65 211Mid156161131131 1 3 1 1 3 1 131 131 131Low12712111510510481INDUSTRIAL High 170 1,810 2,100 2,840 3,590 8,490Mid245701703406301,050 1,460 3,470Low1LI1312370 4 6 0 550 1,310TOTAL High 3,025 6,342 8,879 12,427 1 7 , 6 7 5 40,lfOlMid9021,314 1,990 2,801 4,001 5,641 7,751 10,551 18,351Low2,568 3,273 4,075 5,125 6,424 8,061 v APA 2/79 hj /-'. lQr:: Ii (l) ~ LOW "/i'y4Y.:;;.y Y ",,,,'/ r{. ;~ / Upper susitna Project Power Market Analysis ANC.HORAGE-COOK INLET AREA ENERGY FORECAST 1000 It'I I I I I ,I !I !I ! 1970 1975 19771980 1985 ·1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 .2020 2025 YEAR 2000 30.000 40,000 100,000,/I 90.000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50.000 20,000 CJ)cr :::l 0 :t: I-10,000I- <t 9000 ~8000 <t 7000 C)-6000 C) 5000 4000 3000~ ~ I-'" N '"--.J (Xl .f>-,.... Upper Susitna Project Power Market Analysis ANCHORAGE-COOK INLET AREA PEAK LOAD FORECAST 100 I I I I I I I I I I I !J 1970 19751977 1960 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 YEAR 4000 :3000 10,000 I 1 9000 8000·- 7000 6000 5000 2000 .,.- LOW I //---I (f) l-~l-N « 3:1000 <t:900 (!;l 800Ul700:2:.....I I //./' 600 500 400 t-Ij~300V I~' lQI ~ :t:' Iit CD f-' N I 1-' "-200 0 ~ro Table'11 POWER AND ENERGY REQUIREMENTS FAIRBANKS-TANANA VALLEY AREA Upper Susitna Project Power Market Analysis PEAK POWER 1970 1973 1977 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2025 MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW----UTILITY High 158 244 358 495 685 1,443 Mid 56 73 119 150 211 281 358 452 689 Low 142 180 219 258 297 329 NATIONAL DEFENSE High 49 51 54 56 '59 76 Mid 44 41 41 47 47 47 47 47 47 ~Low 46 44 42 40 38 29w TOTAL High 207 295 412 551 744 1,519 Mid 101 114 160 197 258 328 405 499 736 Low 188 224 261 298 335 358 ANNUAL ENERGY GWH GWH GWH GWH GWH GWH G\.JH GWH GWH-- ------------UTILITY High 690 1,070 1,570 2,170 3,000 6,320 Mid 239 324 483 655 925 1,230 1,570 1,980 3,020 Low 620 790 960 1,130 1,300 1,440 NATIONAL DEFENSE High 213 224 235 247 260 333 Mid 203 200 207 207 207 207 207 207 207 Low 203 193 184 175 166 129 TOTAL ll:igh 903 1,294 1,805 2,417 •3,260 6,653 Mid 443 524 690 862 1,132 I,Lf 37 1,777 2,187 3,227 Low 823 983 1,1L.4 1,305 1,466 1,569 APA 11/78 FAIRBANl(S-TANANA VALLEY AREA / qpper Susitna ~o~e:tRp~wYr !r~e~~~f.i~T ~~"~ ':Y0 / "';//:\ 4000 3000 10 1000, 7 I 9000 8000 7000 _. 6000 5000 1970 1975 1977 1980 198b I~~V 1::1::1;)G.vvv Upper Susitna Project Power Market Analysis FAIRBANI<S-TANANA VALLEY AREA PEAK LOAD FORECAST 10,000 I r 9000 - 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 C/) ~I- U1 I- <t ~1000 <t 900 (!)800W ~700 600 500 400.-- ~300 LOW :J::' I t-' I IV I t-rj ""--...]200 I 1:-" ro 1 l.Q R CD t-' IV 2025 Table 12 POHER AND ENERGX REQUIREMENTS (RAILBELT AREA) Upper Susitna Project Power Market Analysis PEAK POHER-1970 1973 1977 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2025 MH MH MH MH MH MH MH MW MW'---TOTAL High 890 1,671 2,360 3,278 Lf,645 10,422 Mid 313 389 650 829 1,162 1,592 2,134 2,852 4,796 Low 769 961 1,177 1,4L19 1,783 2,146 Average Annual Growth for period % % %%% %% % High 11.0 13.4 7.1 6.8 7.2 3.3 Mid 7.5 13.7 8.4 7.0 6.5 6.0 6.0 2.1 Low 5.8 4.6 4.1 4.2 4.2 0.7 ANNUAL ENERGY GWH GWH GWH GWH GWH GWH GWH GWH eWl{---TOTAL High 3,928 7,636 10,684 14,84 LI 20,935 47,054 Hid 1,345 1,838 2,681 3,663 5,133 7,078 9,528 12,738 21,578 Low 3,391 4,256 5,219"6,430 7,890 9,630 Average Annual Growth for period % %% % % % %% High 13.6 14.2 6.9 6.8 IT 3.3 Hid 11~0 '9.9 11.0 7.0 6.6 6.1 6.0 2.1 Low 8.1 4.6 4.2 4.3 4.2 0.8 Note:The increase in 1980-1985 high range growth rates reflects the addition in 1985 of the energy intensive self-supplied industry load (280 M\-1). APA 11/78 l-:tj 1-'" LQs:: Iiro j-Jw I r I I I I 202.5 Upper Susitna ect Power Market s 1000 1970 20,000.- (J) 0:: ::> 0.f......J:'-J l-10,000 l-9000 8000 7000 6000 (!) 5000 4000 ~3000 ~ j-J N ........2000--l' eo h:j \-'- LQs:: i"i CD I-' .l'> 2020 2025201520102005 TOTAL RAILBEL T AR.EA PEAK LOAD FORECAST Upper Susitna Project Power Market Analysis 100 I r I!!!!!!I !I I 1970 1975 1977 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 YEAR 200 4000 3000 10,000 I ........I 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 2000 I-./.;LOW (/) l- I-« 3;1000 «900 CD 800 LtJ 700~ 600 500 400 300~ :Jo' I-' tv "--Jco .j::- (Xl Upper Susitna Project Power Market Analysi$ Anchorage-Cook Inlet Fairbanks-Tanana Valley Total Railbelt Forecast'1976 Update 1978 1976 Update 1978 1976 Update 1978 Year Range Report of 1976 Forecast Report of 1976 Forecast Report of 1976 Forecast 1974 Historic 1,305 1/1,189.7 .y 330 353.8 1,635 1,543.5 1975 High 1,489 377 1,866 Mid 1,467 371 1,838 Low .1,450 367 1,816 Historic 1,413.0 450.8 1,863.8 .I::-1976 High 1,699 430 2,129 \0 Mid 1,649 417 2,066 Low 1,611 407 2,018 Historic 1,615.3 \468.5 2,083.8 "1977 High 1,939 490 2,429 Mid -.1,853 469 2,322 Low 1,790 453 2,242 Historic 1,790.1 1,790.1 482.9 482.9 2,273.0 2,273.0 1980 High 2,850 2,660 2,720 700 720 690 3,550 3,380 3,410 Mid 2,580 2,540 2,500 660 690 655 3,240 3,230 3,155 Low 2,410 2,460 2,300 610 660 620 3,020 3,120 2,920 1990 High 6,880 6,300 6,630 1,660 1,700 1,570 8,540 8,000 8,200 Mid 5,210 5,000 4,880 .1,270 1,360 1,230 6,480 6,360 6,110 Low 4,420 4,410 3,590 1,050 1,180 960 5,470 5,590 4,550 ..._~(1{)(}'.~¢r;'High 15,020 13,600 13,920 3,500 3,670 3,000 18,520 17,270 16,920 Mid 9,420 8,950 8,960 2,230 2,440 1,980 11,650 11,390 10,940 Low 6,570 6,530 5,770 1,530 1,750 1,300 8,100 8,280 7,070 }j~1974 'h:l.storfc.-data revised between 1975 and 1978.APA.11/78 GWH =million kwh Furthercomparisonsconfirmthatthe1976reportforecastwasvalid.Historicvaluesthrough1977fellbetweenthehighandlowrangesoftheforecast.The1976reportwasbasedonloaddatathrough1974andthefollowingassumptionsforutilityloadgrowth:AverageAnnualGrowthRatesThefollowingpercentagescomparethisreportandtheaboveassumptions.~AverageAnnualGrowthRatesFrom1978UtilityEnergyForecastHighRangeMid-RangeLowRangeHighRangeMid-RangeLowRange1974-198014.1%12.4ILl1977-198014.5%1l.58.71980-19909.0%7.06.01980-19909.0%6.84.51990-20008.0%6.04.01990-20007.5%6.04.5The1976reportbasedtheutilityenergyforecastonassumedaverageannualgrowthrates.The1978reportbasedtheforecastonassumedgrowthinpopulationandpercapitaenergyuse.Bothreportsconsideredenergy.conservation,butitwasgivenmorespecificandhigherimportanceinthe1978forecast.Forecastsavailablefromvariousutilitiesaretabulatedontables14,15,and16.Someweredonebytheutilities,somebyconsultants,andsomebyREA.Alldatawastabulatedand,wherenecessary,extrapolatedaspartoftheStateAlaskaPowerAuthorityRailbe1tIntertieStudy.Comparisonsaresummarizedin5-yearincrements.UtilityForecasts1978SusitnaForecastsEnergy(GWH)HighMidLow19803,3443,4103,1552,92019856,2775,4604,4553,630199010,9658,2006,no4,550199517,74811,6008,1405,690200026,55016,92010,9407,070Peak(MW)198072577872066719851,3771,2441,02183019902,9861,8731,3961,03919953,8352,6451,8581,29820005,6413,8652,4971,61750 Theutilityforecastsrunhigherthanthoseofthisreport.Nodefinitereasonforthedifferencescanbemadeotherthantheutilitiesassumedhighergrowthrates.Thebasisoftheutilityassumptionswasnotconsideredinthisstudy.51 Table14UTILITYENERGYFORECASTS(GWH)ANCHORAGE-COOKINLETAREAUpperSusitnaProjectPowerHarketAnalysisYearAML&P1./CEAl:..1MEA31HEA!:..ITotal19796341,1092803102,33319806991,2833333742,68919817711,4683954523,08619828471,6794685463,54119839301,9215596204,03019841,0182,1976687054,58819851,1112,5097998005,21919861,2102,810954 9095,88319871,3133,1471,1401,0336,63419881,4223,5251,3221,1557,42419891,5343,9481,5~41,2908,30619901,6504,4221,7791,4429,29319911,7704,8642,0641,61110,30919921,8915,3502,3941,80111,43719932,0145,8852,7061,97812,58419942,1386,4743,0572,17313,84319952,2457,1213,4552,38815,20919962,3577,6913,9042,62316,57519972,4758,3064,4122,88218,07519982,5998,9714,8533,11119,53319992,7299,6385,3383,35921,11320002,86510,4635,8723,62622,826Source:Obtainedfromutilitiesin1978forAlaskaPowerAuthorityRailbeltIntertieStudy.IIAnchorageMunicipalLight&PowerDepartment21ChugachElectricAssociation31MatanuskaElectricAssociation41HomerElectricAssociationAPA1/7952 Table15UTILITYPEAKDEMANDFORECASTS(MW)ANCHORAGE-COOKINLETAREAUpperSusitnaProjectPowerMarketAnalysisYearAML&P1/CEA'!:./MEA11HEA!!..ITotal197912423967 64495198013827181785671981152310979465319821673551161137521983184406142129860198420246517114698319852215302071661,12419862415942511881,27419872636553032141,44519882857453432391,61219893098353892671,80019903339354422992,00819913581,0285013342,22219923841,1315693732,4581993-41l1,2446304102,69519944371,3696984512,95419954611,5057734953,23419964861,6268575443,51219975121,7569505983,81619985391,9011,0266454,11119995682,0481,1086964,42120005992,2121,1977524,759Source:Obtainedfromutilitiesin1978forAlaskaPowerAuthority.Rai1be1tIntertieStudy.IIAnchorageMunicipalLight&PowerDepartment21ChugachElectricAssociation31MatanuskaElectricAssociation41HomerElectricAssociationAPA1/7953 Table16UTILITYENERGYA1~PEAKDEMANDFORECASTSFAIRBANKS-T&~ANAVALLEYAREAUpperSusitnaProjectPowerMarketAl1.alysisNetEnergy(GWH)PeakDemand(MW)YearGVEA1/FMU.YTotalGVEAFMUTotal1979450144594111331441980502153655123351581981.56016272213637173198262-51727961513919019836931828751674220919847691939621864423019858532051,0582064725319869472171,1642285027819871,0502301,2802525330519881,1552441,3992785633419891,2712591,5293055936419901,3982741,6723356339819911,5372881,8253686643419921,6913021,9934056947419931,8433172,1604407251219942,0093332,3424807655619952,1903502,5405218060119962,3873672,7545698465319972,6023862,9876198870719982,8104053,2156689276019993,0354253,4607229781920003,2784463.724780102882Source:Obtainedfromutilitiesin1978forAlaskaPowerAuthorityRailbe1tIntertieStudy.1/GoldenValleyElectricAssociation2/FairbanksMunicipalUtilities54APA1/79 LoadDistributionReservoiroperationstudiesusedinsizingreservoirsneedanaveragemonthlydistributionofannualenergytohelprelatehydroelectricoutputtotheelectricload.ThissectionreportsupdatedaveragesofmonthlyenergyusedividedbyannualenergyusewithintheAnchorage-CookInletarea.Thissectionalsoreportsastudyofhourlyloaddistributionintheweeksofwinterpeakload(sameasannualpeak)andsummerminimumpeakload.Bystudyingtheseloadcurvesfromseveralyears,hydroelectricplantfactorisevaluated.(Seecapacitysection).Theutilitysystemshavehadcombinedannualloadfactorsslightlyover50percentinthepastfewyears(54percentin1977asshownonfigure17)~Datapresentedintable17showsthatmid-summerpeakshavebeenrunningabout60percentofmid-winterpeaksandthatmonthlyloadfactorsgenerallyexceeded70percent.For1977,theDecemberloadfactorwas76percent.Figures15and16illustratethatwinterandsummerloadsarequitesimilar.Theloaddurationcurvesoffigure17presentthesedailyloadcurvesconcisely.The1976reportcontainsdailyloadcurvesofpreviousyears.Winterandsummercurvesareplottedtogethershowingsimilaritiesofslopeandshape.Theupdateofaveragemonthlyenergy·ispresentedaspercentoftheannualvalueintable18.Averagepercentagesusedinthe1976reportcomparecloselywith1970-77averages.Slightchangesarereflectedinthe"recommendeddistribution"column.Winterloadisabouttwo-thirdsoftotal.55 SYSTEM DAILY GENERATION CURVE ANCHORAGE AREA Upper Susitna project Power Market Analysis !I iiI. ~! , I I I I I:IIII!!II I!,I I I I',[Til iii!ill I 'I'IT'fjTIF lin II :lnTlTlllllfflinlllllTTTlfllllllllll 11,1,'" I.-,-,,""ili=lli'"11-''''W'..-+'.----I-l", ,f+--H ~'""" ""l-I-I-I .__.;•____-1-"'"'-+"I-,~'",1'1HI-U--" • 1 ,~11111I111 III I .J..i.+.-f--..l '...'J'U II-W-J-I..LHIl"CIIIUOJ ~;III'i I I I I,I "1 i II , ,:- ""IT IT'll j I! lin;'II;!i Iii -I I I II 1---1 I.;1111 !1I+I.I-I-f-I+fl-H-H-l=I-n+i i I 'H-lI!I I I II I 1-1,:II Iii I II i i W-l-l-I-I-l=U-U-l-J..l-W-i-W i t-Htfi-4-H-+l-I I I 1:1,11111111111111.1 ·1'I 1. I I t++=t=W Ht1t1+ti.li..W 1,1 I;II: ..",'I I 4 ~9CI I 80 :no ~QC ~~C 340 330 32.0 310 ~oc V1 0\ ~~ I-' tv "--.J 00 SIHJDAV l.:ONOAY TUESDAY WEDNESDAY .THUI'lSDAY FfllDAY S/,TUflDAV DAYS OF THE WEEK :no 360~I ir- I : I IL _ SUNDAY ;:,SIP ~O~IOAY TUESl:>AY .Wr::tm:::SOAY DAYS OF THE WEEK T1-iUflSOAY f:lIOW S.\TI,'-J:' -----_._---- 2TYo9010080APA12/7870December1977June197760SummerBaseLoad50SummerPeakLoad58%Tlf~E40302010540/0LoadFactor1-·-WinterPeakLaad______YJ650/0WinterBaseLoado102030Figure176070809040ANCHORA.GEA\REALOADDURATIONCURVE1977UpperSusitnaProjectPowerMarketAnalysis100r.-----r---...,.----.--......;....-,------,---....---,.----...----,-----1~«w50~-----.Q.. 'Table 17 LOAD DISTRIBVTION'CHARACTER1STJCS MONTHLY P~AK LOADS'AND LOAD FACTORS' ·Upper Susitna Project Powar Market AnalYsis I - 1971-1972 ,1972-1973 1973-1974 1974-1975 1975-1976 1976-1977 ..,.. -,iJ :x:.w .IJ :x:.w .IJ ~a (J ~.~(J ~.,.u .Yo ~,u ,Y.~U .Y.:;:: ~{1.~~(1.~r.l ~r.l r.l ~ <:!c:.I r...Q)g;,r...CJ ~tJ t:..~t:..\00 '0 tl<~\l)t:..~t:..~ 0 '0 0 "0 0 "0 0 "0 0 ,..{,..{§M ,..{r,j ,..{M,III ,..{,..{III .-!,..{OJ ,..{,..{ :;::~~~.S .,..(fj 0 ~4<1'til S ~r.l 0 ~r;; ,.:.::g >.>.~::J >.H ""::J >.::J >.~;j >- tTl ~C>s::C>s::C>l::C>c:C> ~..~C k .{i k .~c:k ..Y.c:k .Y.c:k .Y..<k r;;.<C)c c:.I c .<ilJ c:til .<(!),c r;;.<C),.<'l C) (3 C)s::~C)•liP s::o·C)s::0 C)c ~CJ c:g CJ c: ::::p..If'~tl<"-l ::::fl.lIP "-l ;:::tl<,'P l<l p..""~p..c:.'~ I October 185.8 73 9<..1 68 209.2 74 108.8 70 224.3 82 122.7 73 252.9 71 134.3 71 342.2 81 153.0 60 359.8 88 132.2 € ~o'le;;0er 222.8 80 113.0 70 ·236.3 83 124.4 73 269.6 98 ,144.6 74 266.2 75 156.0 81 367.6 87 196.2 74 360.7 88 193.8 - Dac~::,.ber 236.2 93 121.1 70 260.7 92 143.3 74 266.9 97 147·0 74 314.9 89 170.7 73 420.5 100 226.3 72 408.3 100 223.<'., Jan'J.a:::y 254.5 100 135.3 72 283.0 100 153.6 72'274.5 100 159.3 78 354.1 100 180.8 69 394.1 94 213.3 73 376.4 92 209.9 'j Fc:Orua~y 22~.5 08 115.3 76 259.6 92 127.5 73 264.5 ,96 139.4 79 316.7 89 166.9 78,383.3 .91 203.5 76 356.8 87 181.7 'j. ~~n.~ch 222.8 87 119.2 70 225.1 80 125.5 75 .249.4 91 135.5 73 268.6 ,76 156.6 78'342.1'81 187.6 7t.369.0 90 208.6 . i'.pr;'l 176.7 69 96.6 76 196.4 69 105.4'75 201.6 73 112.4 77 249.0 70 129.2 72 2,85.3 66 159.0 77 331,.4 82 177;0 :':ay 157.9 62 87.8 75 176.7 62 98.5 75 160.4 66 104.1 78 222.0 63 120.9 73 253.6 60 It,5.0 77 284.8 70 161.3 J~:'le '.152.1 66 78.5 72 165.2 58 87.6 74 176.2 64 95.4 75 209.0 59 113.0.75 236.1 56 128.9 76 265.0 65 11,8.1 uu1y 146.8 52 76.6 70 162.8 59 .89.8 74·178.9 65 97.S 73 207.0 58 110.9 72 248.0 59 134.4 73 257.1 63 1q..3 n.\:gUst 154.5 54 86.9 75 175.9 64 96.2 73 195.7 71 101.9 70,211.5 61 11S.3 73 250.6 60 139.9 75 271.8 67 151.7 s~.?tcr::Oe::I 179.6 , 64 92.9 72 194.5 71.100.S 72 210.3 77 106.1 70 247.4 70 131.9 74 278.0 66 151.2 76 318.9 79 166.7 ;·~i~.St:::'::'.C~?c.G.~'"57.7~57.5~64.2!J 58.5%56.;I.'Ii 63.0', ~1t-:,,,~\':'Z)tc::?cn:< . l/Rcprcscnts sum of loads for the A:'lchorage (&v~&?,CEA) --And ?airba~~s (FMU,GVEA)utilities Table18ASPERCENTOFANNUALREQUIREMENTectPower~ArketAnalysis1970-19721970-1977UtilityUtilityRecommendedLoads1/Loads2/Distribution3/7.98.18.28.99.29.0Dec.10.210.29.7Jan.11.310.810.2Feb.9.29.39.1Mar.9.89.49.1April8.07.87.9May7.27.37.6June6.56.67.0July6.46.77.1Aug.7.17.17.4Sept.7.57.57.7Total100.0100.0100.0SEASONALOct.-April65.364.863.2May-Sept.34.735.236.8l!CombinedloadsofCEA,AML&P,GVEA,FMUS,forOct.1970-Sept.1972.Basisfor(1975SusitnaPowermarketanalysis)1976report.~CombinednetgenerationofCEA,AML&P,APA,GVEA,FMUS,forOct.1970-Sept.1977.UpdatedBasis.1/Assumestotalrequirementsconsistingof25percentindustrialloadsand75percentutilityloads.Updateofpreviousrecommendations.60 CapacityRequirementsWithreferencetotheloadfactorevalu~tiop~intheprevioussection,trendtowardssomewhathigherannualloadfactorsinthefuture....isanticipated.Inadditiontobenefittingfr.omanyloaddiversityint.he.interconnectedsystem,peakloadmanagement(includingsuchpracticesaspeakloadpricing)offersconsiderabIeopportunityforimprovingloadfactors,whichinturnreducesoverallcapacityrequirementsforthesysteminanygivenyear.Forplanningpurposes,itisassumedthattheannualsystemloadfactorwillbeintherangeof55to60percentbythelatterpartofthecentury.SystemcapacityrequirementsplusThelowersummerand'repairs.requirementsaredeterminedbywinterpeakloadallowancesforreservesandunanticipatedloadgrowth.peaksprovidelatitudeforscheduledunitmaintenanceSystemdailypeakloadshapesindicatethataverysmallportionofthecapacityisneededforverylowloadfactoroperation.Someofthegasturbinecapacitynow'usedrorbaseloadisexpectedtobeusedmainlyforpeakshavingpurposes,eventually.Itwillbeoperatingduringpeakloadhoursrorthefewdayseachyearwhenloadsapproachannualpeak,andwillbeinstandbyreserveforthebalanceoftheyear.Figure17,theannualpeakweekdurationcurve,showsthatthehighest10percentloadoccursfor30percentoftheweek(abouttwodays).Reliabilitystandardswouldbeupgradedasthepowersystemsdevelop.Likelyinclusionsarespecificprovlslonsformaintainingspinningreservecapacitytocoverpossiblegeneratoroutagesandsubstantialimprovementsinsystemtransmissionreliability.Results-Examinationofthewinterloaddurationcurve(figure9)indicatesthatthebaseloadportionisabout65percentoftotalloadandthepeakloadisabout35percentoftotalload.Loadfactorforthepeakportionisabout54percent.Winterweeklyloadfactorsareapproximately80percent••Thisisillustratedinthewinterandsummerloaddurationcurvesbyproportioningtheareasunderthecurvestothetotalpossibleareaif.peakloadoccurred100percentofthetime.Anannualplantfactorof50percentisrec.ommendedfortheproposedUpperSusitnaProject.Thisislargelyajudgmentfactorandisbasedonthefollowingconsiderations:1.Therecommendedplantfactorprovidesrorservingaproportionalshareofbothpeakingandenergyrequirementsthroughouttheyearwhilemaintainingadequateflexibilitytomeetchangingconditionsinanygivenyear.2.Anysignificantreductioninthiscapacitycouldmateriallyreduceflexibility.61 3.Asignificantmarketforlowloadfactorpeakingcapacityseemsunlikelywithintheforeseeablefuture.Loadmanagementandadditionalindustrialloadswillprobablyincreasetheove!:'allsystemIoedfactorinthefuture.Itisexpect~dthatseveralexistingandplannedgasturbineunitscouldeventuallybeusedforpeakshaving.4.Itisrecognizedthatthemodeofoperationforthehydrowillchangethroughtime.Intheinitialyearsofoperation,itislikelythatthefullpeakingcapacitywillbeusedinfrequently.Forexample,themid-rangeRailbeltestimatedsystempeakloadfortheyear2000is2,852MW.AssumingloadshapessimilartothecurrentAnchoragearealoads,thewinterpeakweekwouldrequireabout1,850MWofcontinuouspowertocoverthebaseloadsandabout1,000MWofpeakingpower.Loadfactorsofthepeakportionwouldbeabout50percent.Adesigncapacitybasedon50percentplantfactorappliedtoaverageannualenergy(primaryplussecondary)appearsappropriate.Machineoverloadcapabilitycontributestospinningreservesforemergencie~orothershorttermcontingencies.TheCorpsbasednameplatecapacityon50percentplantfactorappliedtocriticalyearfirmenergy.Thissmallercapacity,whenappliedtoaverageannualenergy,resultsina56percentplantfactor.APAfeelsthesmallerdesigncapacitymayundulyreduceflexibility.62 PARTVI.ALTERNATIVEPOWERSOURCESIntroductionThissectionexaminesalternativepowersupplyoptionsin.theRailbeltinlieuoftheUpperSusitnaProjectandpresentsdetailedcostestimatesofpowerfromnewcoal-firedsteamplants.Alternativespremisedonunproventechnologywereeliminated.AlternativesConsideredPotentialalternativesourcesofelectricpowergenerationareidenti-fiedbyenergytype.Theyarecoal,oilandnaturalgas,hydro,nuclear,wind,geothermal,andtide.SomealternativeswillberestrictedintimeorcapacitybecauseofFederalenergypolicycontrollinguseofenergyresource.Otherswillberestrictedbypracticalavailableenergysupply.Stillothersareimpracticalbecauseoflackoflarge-scaletechnology.CoalEvaluationofcoalutilizationisbasedonmine-mouthcoal-firedsteamgeneration.Potentialadvancedtechnology,suchasgasification,isnotconsideredbecausedevelopmentwouldnotbeavailablewithinthisstudyperiod.Recentstudiesprovidegeneralinformationaboutpossiblelocations,sl.zl.ng,andcostofnewste~plants,butAlaskaspecificdataarelimitedandextrapolationshavebeenmadeforlocalconditions.Informationsourcesofspecificinterestforthisanalysisare:studiesbyBattellePacificNorthwestLaboratories(March1978);theElectricPowerResearchInstitute(EPRI)(January1977);andtheWashingtonPublicPowerSupplySystem(WPPSS)(June1977);theFederalEnergyRegulatoryCommission(FERC)determinationofpowervaluesfortheBradleyLakeProject(October-1977)andtheUpperSusitnaProject(October1978);andevaluationsofcostsfortheproposedGoldenValleyElectricAssociation(GVEA)plantadditionsatHealy.Thesearealllistedinthebibliography.LocationItisassumedthatnewcoal-firedsteamp1antswouldbelocatedneartheBelugafieldsforservicetotheAnchorage-CookInletareaandatHealyforservicetotheFairbanks-TananaValleyarea.TheplantswoulduseknownbutundevelopedcoalresourcesatBelugaandtheexistingcoalminingoperationnearHealy.63 64Thebasiccostin-theWPPSSstudyfora1,000MJolsingleunitplantinoperationduringmid-1976was:All1977and1978estimatesaresubstantiallyhigherthanAPAestimatesforthe1976AlaskaPowerSurveyandthe1976report.$554/kw$684/kwWithoutScrubbersWithScrubbersItisrecognizedthatotherlocationsarepossible.Forexample,'itmaybepossibIetolocateacoal-firedplantontheKenaiPeninsulaand,usecoalfromeitherlocalreservesorBeluga.AKenailocationmightofferco-generationpossibilitiesbecausesteamcouldbereusedinmanufacturingbythepetrochemicalindustry.ThepotentialforminingcoalontheKenaiPeninsulaissubstantiallylessattractivethanforBelugabecauseofthincoalseamsandothergeologicfactors.InvestmentCost-Table19summarizesunitinvestmentcostsfornewcoal-firedplantspresentedinseveralrecentstudies.Thedataassembledbyeachentityisquitecomplexwithrespecttooriginalestimatedpricelevels,inflationtoupdatedpricelevels,orprojectedfutureon-linedates,size,pollutioncontrolequipment,location,typeofplant,andotheritems.Pricelevelswerenotadjustedtoauniformdatebecauseofthecomplexityofdatainvolved.Capacity-Theseanalysesarefortwo-unit200-MJoland500-MJolplants.Thissizerangeisconsideredappropriatefornewcoal-firedplantsthatmightcomeon-linebetween1985and2000.APA'sestimateofcoal-firedsteamplantinvestmentcostsisderivedfromtheWPPSSstudy.ProceduresforadjustingcoststocurrentAlaskaconditionsaresimilartotheanalysisusedintheappendedBattellereport.TheWPPSSprocedureincreasedthesecostsforthequalityofthecoalusedandotherspecificpowerplantsiteconditions.Thecoalqualityproblemshavenotbeenconsideredinthisestimate,andtheconstructionsitevariableisassumedtobeincludedintheAlaskafactor.Themostin-depthanalysiswastheWPPSSstudywhichinvestigatedtheconstructionof1,000-MJolsteamplantsat10plantsitesinWashington,Montana,andWyoming.Severalgradesandsourceswereassumed.Costswereestimatedforwithandwithoutsulphurdioxidescrubbers(scrubbers).Twenty-twooptionsofplantsites,coalsupply,andtrans-portationwereinvestigated. Table 19 (cont.) COMPARISON OF INVEST~lliNT COSTS FOR COAL-FIRED STEAMPLANTS Upper Susitna Project Power Market Analysis Source of Estimate Price Level Location Size,MW No.of Units Scrubbers Investment Cost,$/kw PACIFIC NORTI&EST AND WESTERN U.S.LOCATIONS Washington Public Power Supply System 2/Mid 1976 Pacific Northwest 1,000 2 No 554 Mid 1976 Pacific Northwest 1,000 2 Yes 684 July 1987 Pacific Northwest 1,000 2 No 848 July 1987 Pacific Northwest 1,000 2 Yes 1,056 (J\Electric Power Research(J\ Institute §j July 1976 Western U.S.Remote 500 1 No 896 July 1976 Western U.S.Remote 500 1 Yes 1,036 July 1976 Western U.S.Remote 1,000 2 No 830 July 1976 Western U.S.Remote 1,000 2 Yes 960 Idaho Nuclear Energy Commission JJ 1984 Boise,Idaho 1,000 2 No 828 1984 Boise,Idaho 1,000 2 Yes 934 !!APA's estimate is based largly on the WPPSS study with adjustments for Alaska conditions and size of plant. Future inflation not shown. 2/GVEA 1974 estimate assumed units becoming operational in 1983 and 1986.The 1978 estimates assume operation -in 1984 at $2,500/kw assuming 7%inflation. 3/Battelle's est~ates are based on adjusting both WPPSS and EPRI study data.The higher figures are from the -EPRI study.Their studies with future operation dates include inflation. 4/Scrubbers are assumed included in the cost. S/This is the basic study adjusted by APA and Battelle above.The 1987 costs include 5 percent annual inflation. 6/The July 1976 price level includes costs for initial operation in 1978 •. 7/The price level is 1975 costs adjusted to show costs for a 1984 operation date. 67AnAlaskafactorof1.8wasusedtoadjustPacificNorthwestcoststoAlaskawagesandconditions:Adjustingthecostforthetimebetweenmid-1976andOctober1978usingtheHandy-WhitmanSteamp1antCostIndexincreasedthecost18.4percent.$/kw7288991,3101,620500MW500MW655,000810,000364,000450,000$Million$Million1,5001,860$/kw8351,035200M1V$656/1011$8l0/kw200MW300,000372,000167,000207,000$Million$MillionWithScrubbersWithoutScrubbersPlantSizeWithoutScrubbersWithScrubbers.PlantSizeWithoutScrubbersWithScrubbersAlaskancoalpriceshaveshownsizableincreasesrecently.ThecostofcoalatHealyinSeptember1978was80centspermillionBtu,upfrom62centsin1975.TheFairbanksMunicipalUtilitySystem(FHUS)paysanadditional$6/tonshippingcostforHealycoalresultinginapriceof$1.15permillionBtuatthepowerp1antinFairbanks.FuelCostandAvailability-Thereisawiderangeofopinionsabouttheprobablefuturecostofcoal.Formanyyears,coalpricesweresetatasmallmarginaboveproductioncostssothatcoalcouldcompetewithlow-costoilandnaturalgas.Thissituationhaschangeddrasticallybecauseofpriceincreasesforoilandgasandincentivesforpowergenerationandhasresultedinindustrialconversiontocoal.Coalproductioncostsarealsoincreasingrapidlyduetonormalinflationaryandregulationfactors.FERCreportedthenationalaveragepriceofcoalat96.2¢/millionBtuinJuly1977,upfrom80.8¢inJuly1975,and39.8¢inAugust1973.Powerplantssmallerthanthe1,000M1vthatwillfitnear-futureAlaskapowerneedshaveasmallertotalcost,butalargercostperinstalledkilowatt.Anadjustmentneedstobeappliedtothecoststocompensateforthelossofeconomyofthelargescaleplants.Thefactorrecom-mendedistheratioof.theplantsizetothe0.85exponent.A500-MWplantthuscosts55.5percentofa1,000M1vplant,anda200-MWplantcosts25.5percent.Scalingtheplantsto200M1Vand500MW-gives: InOctober1978,ownersoftheBelugacoalfieldstatedthatlargereservesintheBelugacoalfieldmaycompeteintheworldenergymarketatapriceof$1.10to$1.40/mi11ionBtustockpiledontheshoreofCookInlet.Theconclusionswerebasedoncompanystudiesthatincludedgeologicinvestigations,drilling,bulksamplingprograms,miningpreparation,environmentalevaluation,andnavigationandshippingstudies.FERCestimated$1.OO/millionBtufordeterminationofpowervaluesintheBradleyLakeProject(October1977).Otherrecentstudiessuggestthisisareasonablecurrent(1978)costforBelugacoaldeliveredtoasteamplantatBeluga,withnoallowanceforpriceincreaseinfutureyears.EarlierAPAstudiesforthe1976FPCPowerSurveyandthe1976Susitnareportassumed$1.00to$1.50/mi11ionBtuforcoalat1985pricelevelsin1974dollars.Thisincludedconsiderationoffutureeconomiesofscaleoflargerminingoperations.APAanalysesforthisreportarestillbasedonacoalcostof$1.00to$1.SO/millionBtuforamine-mouthplantateitherBelugaorHealyformid-1980conditions.Thisiscomparablewith$1.28in1985,estimatedbyGVEAforHealycoalbyincreasingthecurrent80centsby7percentannually.Becauseofthewidediversityofstudiesandopinions,analysesbasedonarangeofcostsarepresented.Inthisstudy,weareassumingfuelvalueswillincreaseabout2percentperyear--morerapidlythanoverallpriceindexes.Thisisconsistentwithotheranalyses.68 Table20GENERATIONCOSTSFORCONVENTIONALCOAL-FIREDSTEk~PLANTSUpper-SusitnaProjectPowerMarketAnalysis1985COSTS(1978PRICES)l/PlantSize,W~200500NumberofUnitsInvestmentCost,Raifbelt,$/kwCapitalCost,mills/kwh21,86038.521,62033.5OperationandMaintenance,mills/kwh.SubtotalAssumedFuelCosts,mills/kwhTransmissionCosttoLoadCenterTotalEnergyCost,mills/kwh1994ENERGYCOSTCapitalCost,mills/kwhOperationandMaintenance,mills/kwhTransmissionCost,mills/kwhSubtotalFuel,Inflated2%1985to1994Total6.55.645.039.11.00/mmBtu1.50/mmBtu10.015.010.0 15.04.0 4.03.03.059.064.052.1 57.1Fuelescalated2%/year1985to199438.533.56.55.64.03.049.042.112.017.912.0 17.961.066.954.160.0FuelEscalated7%/Yearfrom1~85to1994;CapitalCostandO&MEscalated5%/Yearfrom197Bto1994CapitalCost80.069.7OperationandMaintenance13.511.6Transmission8.36.2Subtotal101.887.5Fuel18.427.618.427.6Total120.2129.4105.9115.11/APAestimatebasedonstudiesbyWashingtonPublicPowerSupplySystemStudies1977.69 CostofPower-Theestimatedtotalcostofelectricpowerthatwouldbegeneratedbyacoal-firedsteamplantalternativetotheSusitnaproJectispresentedintable20.DevelopmentoftheestimatedcostappliedtoaplantineithertheBelugaorHealyareaisbasedontheinvestmentandfuelcostsdiscussedearlierinthissection,andincludesothercriteriadevelopedinthisreport.Insummary,theparametersare:1.Investmentcostincludesallconstruction,overhead,andinterestduringconstruction,andisbasedonupdatingandadjustingWPPSSPacificNorthwestcostsforAlaskaconditions.Annualcapitalcostsarebasedona35-yearlifeand7percentinterestrate.2.Operationandmaintenancecostsarebasedonadetailed1;-lPPSSpersonnelandmaterialsestimateadjustedforplantcapacityinthesamemanperasinvestmentcosts,increasedby50percentforAlaskaconditions,asdevelopedinthe1976AlaskaPowerSurvey,andindexedfromJanuary1977toOctober1978usingtheU.S.DepartmentofLaborindex.3.Fuelcostsofboth$1.00and$1.50/kwarepresentedwithaheatrateof10,000Btu/kwh.4.TransmissioncostsareforlinesconnectingBelugawithAnchorage,andHealywithFairbanks.Theresultingaverageunitcostofelectricpowerfromcoal-firedsteamp1antstosupplytheRailbeltmarketarearangesfrom5.21to6.40¢/kwh,varyingwithfuelcostandplantcapacity.Table20alsopresentsananalysisofthecostofenergywithfuelcostsescalatedat2percentanuallyfrom1985through1994(Susitnaproject,Watanaphaseon-line)andfuelcostescalatedat7percentannuallyfrom1985through1994.ComparativeCostofPower(FERC)-FERCevaluatedalternativecostsforcoal-firedsteamplantsatBelugafortheAnchorageareaandHealyfortheFairbanksareaaspartoftheirpowerbenefitstudiesfortheUpperSusitnaProject.TheFERCestimatesof4.93to5.64¢/kwhareinthesamerangeasthoseestimatedbyAPAfortheAnchoragearea.However,theFERCestimatesof4.02to4.30¢/kwhfortheFairbanksareaarelowcomparedtoAPAestimates.FERCestimatedconstructioncosts(July1978)at$1,475/kwcomparedto$1,8l0/kwestimatedbyAPA.Inaddition,GVEArecentlyestimatedacostof$1,800/kwforacomparableHealysteamplant.FERCdataarebasedon:1.AnAnchorageareaplantassumedtobeatwo-unit450-~~plantwithfuelcostof$1.l0/millionBtuandaheatrateof10,000Btu/kwh.TheFairbanksplantisassumedtobetwounits,totaling230MW,withafuelcostof$0.80/millionBtuandaheatrateof10,500Btu/kwh.Fornon-Federalcases,theAnchorageareaplantinvestmentcostwasestimatedat$1,240/kwandtheFairbanksinvestmentcostat$1,475/kw.70. 2.Financingisbased~nacompositeAnchorage-Kenaiinterestrateof7.9percentwith75percentfinancingbyREAat8.5percentand.25percentbythemunicipalityofAnchorageat6.25percent.TheinterestrateforFairbanksis5.75percentassumingStateofAlaskaPowerAuthorityfinancing.Incomparison,aFederalrateof6.875percentisusedforbothareas,thesamerate'usedintheCorpsofEngineersbenefitanalysis.OilandNaturalGasTheUpperSusitnaProjectinvolvesalargenewpowersupplybeginningin1994,withanexpectedlifeinexcessof100years.APAdoesnotbelievethatoilandnaturalgasarerealisticalternativesforequivalentpowersupplies,particularlyinviewofthetimeframe(startin1994)andverylonglife(through2094).HydroCriteria-EvaluationofpossiblehydroelectricgenerationalternativestotheSusitnaprojectisbasedoncomparing:(1)thepotentialgenerationcapability,and(2)unitcostofpower.Possiblesitesareidentifiedby:(1)singlesiteswithsufficientcapacitytosupplytheprojectedpowerdemands;(2)combinationsofsmallersiteswithinselectedgeographicareasandriverbasins;and(3)acombinationofthebestsitesfromallareasaccessibletotheRai1be1t.Thehydroevaluationconsideredpowerrequirementsrangingfrom600~~to2,290MW,whichare,respectively,thelow-rangeandhigh-rangeprojectedincreasesinRailbe1tdemandsfrom1990to2000.Associatedannualfirmenergyrequirementswouldrangefrom2,670gwhto10,260gwh.Bycomparison,theSusitnaprojectisscheduledtoprovideabout1,573~~capacityand6,100gwhannualfirmenergy.PossiblehydrogenerationalternativeswereselectedfromtheAPAinventoryofhydroelectricresources.Theinventoryestimatesunitcostofpoweratthegeneratorbusbarbasedon1965-1966costat3174percentinterestrate.Susitnainventorycostdataindexedto1975pricelevelsgiveunitcostswithin10percentofthatdeterminedforthe1976report.SingleLargeCapacitySitesSevensinglesiteshavesufficientcapacitypotentialtobeanalternativetosupplyingminimumSusitnamarketarearequirements.Thesearewithinamaximumof1.4timestheunitcostforSusitnapower.However,landusedesignations(NationalParksandMonumentsandWildandScenicRivers)and/orknownmajorenvironmentalimpactsprecludeconsiderationofdevelopinganyofthesitesatthepresenttime.71 Inconclusion,nosingle,largehydrogenerationsitesareavailableasalternativestotheUpperSusitnaProject.SiteswithintheNenanaRiverbasinhavealsobeenidentifiedinpastwork.Theireconomicfeasibilitydependsuponbeingdevelopedasaunit.However,severalofthesitesarelocatedpartiallywithinMountMcKinleyNationalParkandareprecludedfromdevelopment.Ifconsiderationisgiventocombiningthebestsmallsitesfromeachofthegeographicareas,12sitestotalling1,276MWarewithintherangeoftwicethecostofSusitna.Onlyone(Chakachamna)isnearSusitnacost(103percent),andhas366MWpotential.FirmCapacityPercentEnergyMWofSusitnaGWH/yrCost12,3002,8001406,4001,4606234,2005',040322,3205307914,2003,2007121,0003,20052'21,9003,60051StreamYukonR.YukonR.Yukon"R.PorcupineR.YukonR.YukonR.CopperR.SiteHolyCrossRubyRampartPorcupineWoodchopperYukon-TaiyaWoodCanyonNoneoftheabovesitescanbeconsideredavailableresourcesinthe1990'stimeframe.Thisisdueto:(1)HolyCross,Ruby,Rampart,andWoodchopperaremain-stemYukonRiversiteswithknownmajorenviron-mentalproblems,(2)Porcupine,Woodchopper,andYukon-Taiyahavemajorinternationalconsiderations,and(3)WoodCanyonhasaknownmajorfisheryproblem.Thesitesare:CombinationofSmallCapacitySites-CombinationsofsinglesiteswithlesscapacitythantheSusitnaprojectconsistof78siteswithintheMatanuska,Tanana,Yentna-Skwentna,Talkeetna,andChulitnaRiverbasins,thenorthwestdrainageofCookInlet,theKenaiPeninsula,andscatteredsmallsites"andsmallbasinswithintheRailbeltarea.NoneoftheseareascontainsiteswithtotalcapacitypotentialtosupplyminimumSusitnarequirements.(Sitecombinationswiththemostcapacity--theYentna-SkewntnaRiverbasinandKenaiPeninsula--total609MWand646MWrespectively,butwithcostsforindividualsitesrangingfrom1.4to20timesSusitnacosts.)ChakachamnaispartlywithinthenewLakeClarkNationalMonument.OtherneworproposedFederallandwithdrawalswouldprecludesiteswithabouthalfofthetotalpotentialofthecombinedsites.Othersiteshavevariousenvironmentalimpactpotentials.Somestreamsthatwouldbeaffectedhavemajoranadromousfishresources.Also,becausethesitesarewidelydistributed,theneededtransmissionsystemswouldbefairlyextensiveandcostly.72 Summary-Basedonexaminationofindividualsitesandcombinationsofsites,therearenohydrogenerationopportunitiesavailabletoprovideenoughpowertobeanalternativetotheSusitnaProject.Sm~llindividualsitesmaybeavailable,butwouldsatisfyonlyasmallportionofthemarketareademand.Othersites,withapparentlyacceptablequantityandeconomiccapability,havebeenorwillbeprecludedbylandstatusdesignation.NuclearNucleargenerationmaybetechnicallyviableinAlaska,butprobablecostandsitingproblemseliminateitasapotentialalternativetoSusitna.Availableinformationindicatesthatinotherstates,nucleariseconomicallycompetitivewithcoal,dependingonspecificconditions.Difficultconditions,possibleseismicandenvironmentalsitingproblems,andreadilyavailablecoalindicatethatnucleargenerationwillprobablynotbeeconomicallyattractiveinAlaskaintheforeseeablefuture.WindTheStatehasshownseriousinterestinwindgenerationtechnologybydevelopingpilotprojectsinthebushcommunitiesofUgashik,NelsonLagoon,andKotzebue.Windseemstoprovidenear-termpowerforsmallcommunitiespresentlydependentonhigh~costdieselgeneration.Thecostandapplicablescaleoftechnologydoesnotmakewindpoweraviablealternativeforlargenear-futurepowerdemands.GeothermalInvestigationstodatehavefoundnohighqualitygeothermalresourcessuitableforpowerdevelopmentinareasaccessibletotheRailbeltarea.GeothermalpotentialisconsideredhighintheWrangellMountainsandportionsoftheAlaskaRange,andmaybeapplicabletotheRailbeltinthefuture.Atthistime,insufficientdataareavailabletodefinetheresource,evenforappraisalofthelargeSusitnaprojectmarket.TideThereisalargephysicalpotentialfortidalpowerdevelopmentintheCookInletareawheretheStateestimatesthatatotalof8,560MWcouldbeharnessed.'Apotentialof785MWisestimatedforKnikArmalone,andapproximatelytwicethatamountforTurnagainArm.SeveraldifferentconceptshavebeendevelopedfortheCookInlettidalpotentialbecauseoftheinterestinalternativeenergysources.Thereismerittopreparingagoodreconnaissanceofthisalternative,aspointedoutinthe1976report.However,thescopeofworkinvolvedtodevelopthetidalresource,thelargecostofdevelopment,andtheimportantenvironmentalconsiderationseliminatetidalpowerasareasonablealternativetotheSusitnaproject.73 ConclusionTherangeofpoweroptionsfortheAlaskaRailbeltisnarrowingrapidly.1.Oilandnaturalgasareverysuspectintermsoflong-rangenationalsupplyandavailabilityforuseinpowerproduction.2.Coalisprovingtobefarmoreexpensiveasapowersourcethanpreviouslyanticipated.3.Manyhydroelectricalternativeshavemovedtothe"unavailable"classesbecauseoflandareadesignations.TheremainingarelessdesirabIeintermsofcostandabilitytomeetprojectedrequirements.4.Nuclearisexpectedtobeasexpensiveascoal.5.Geothermal,tide,andwindareunrealisticplanningalternativesatthistime.74 PARTVII.LOAD/RESOURCEANDSYSTEMPOWERCOST~~ALYSESIntroductionAseriesofload/resourceandsystemcostdemonstrateimpactsoftheSusitnaprojectinsystemcosts.analysesweremadetotermsofoverallpowerTheload/resourceanalysis'·determinedprobabletimingofnewmajorinvestmentsingenerationandtransmissionfacilities.Italsoshowsannualenergyfromeachtypeofplant.Tneload/resourceanalyseswerepreparedforthesebasicpowersupplystrategies:Case1.Alladditionalgeneratingcapacityassumedtobecoal-firedsteamturbineswithoutatransmissioninterconnectionbetweentheAnchorage-CookInletareaandtheFairbanks-TananaValleyarealoadcenters.Case2.Alladditionalgeneratingcapacityassumedtobecoal-firedsteamturbines,includingatransmissioninterconnection.Case3.AdditionalcapacitytoincludetheUpperSusitnaproject(includingtransmissionintertie)plusadditionalcoalasneeded,andforthethreeloadlimits(high,medium,andlow).1Thesystemcostanalyses,keyedtotheload/resource,determinedcostbyyeartoamortizeinvestmentsandpayallannualcosts(fuel,O&Mexpenses,etc).Inflationratesof0and5percentwereconsidered.APAdevelopedanumberofthecosts,etc.APAcontractedpreparethereport.keyinputs,e.g.,demands,unitsizesandwithBattelletomakethe'studiesandand5percent,withconstructioncostsandfuelcostsincreasingat2percentThissectionsummarizeskeyassumptionsandresults.MoredetailedinformationisavailableintheappendedBattellereport.BasicDataandAssumptionsBasicdataandassumptionsusedintheload/resourceandsystempowercostanalysesare:1.Interestrateforrepaymentoffacilities=71/2percent.2.Inflationratesof0increasingatinflationrate,aboveinflationrate.3.Systemreservecapacityof25percentfornon-interconnectedloadcentersand20percentforinterconnectedsystems.4.Transmissionlossesof1.5percentforenergyand5percentforcapacity.75 7614.Heatratefornewcoal-firedsteamplants=10,500Btu/kwh.12.Fuelcosts--seeappendedBattellereport.50755010353520205020YearsPercentCoal-FiredSteamOil-FiredSteamGas-FiredCombustionTurbineOil-FiredCombustionTurbineHydroelectricDieselHydroSteamCombustionturbineDieselSeetables3.4and3.5ofappendedBattellereportforestimatedretirementdatesofeXisti~gfacilities.6.Plantfactorsfornewandmostoftheexistingfacilitiesare:Thefactorforcombustionturbineswasreducedto10percentinthestudywhenadequatesteamturbinecapacitywasavailable.5.Retirementschedulesforproposedgeneratingfacilities(economicfacilitylifetime):l/7.HydroplantsdesignedforUSpercentofnameplatecapacityforlimitedreserverequirements.8.Watanapoweron-line(POL)in1994andDevilCanyonPOLin1998.11.Newcoal-firedsteamplantstobelocatedatBelugaforAnchorageareaandatHealy(orothersiteswithin100miles)forFairbanks.13.PowerdemandswillbemetbyresourceallocationusingSusitnahydrogenerationfirst,coal-firedsecond,andnaturalgasandoillast.9.ExistingandplannedgeneratingfacilitiesforAnchorageandFairbanksareshownintheappendedBattellereport.10.Newcoal-firedsteamplantsforFairbanksassumedtobe100-~~units(firstsix),then200-~units.Anchorageunitsassumedtobe200MW(firstfive),then400-~units. 15.TotalinvestmentcostinOctober1978dollars.Plant($million)($!kw)100-Ml.fCoalSteamTurbine245.42,454200-Ml.fCoalSteamTurbine372.01,860400-M\.[CoalSteamTurbine646.81,617WatanaDam(795M\.j')and2,020.72,554TransmissionLine470.5DevilCanyonDam(778M\.j')834.01,072TotalSusitnaProject(1,573MI.f)3,335.22,12016.Operation,maintenance,andreplacementcosts.Plant100-Ml.fCoalSteamTurbine200-M\.[CoalSteamTurbine400-MWCoalSteamTurbineWatanaDam(795M\.j')DevilCanyonDam(778M\.j')NewTransmissionFacilitiesStudyMethodology($million/yr.)3./65.79.80.740.73($/Rw/yr.)37.628.524.50.941/0.941/2.0[[Asstatedintheintroduction,threecaseswereanalyzedtodeterminetimingofgenerationandtransmission(G&T)investmentsandtheirimpactontotalpowersystemcosts.Thefirststepinestimatingthecostofpowerfromalternativegenerationandtransmissionsystemconfigurationswastoperformaseriesofload/resourceanalyses.Theseanalysesdeterminedthescheduleofmajorinvestmentsbasedonassumptionsofloadgrowths,capacityandenergyproductionofthepotentialgeneratingfacilities,andconstraintsastowhenthefacilitiescouldcomeon-line.Theload/resourceanalysesalsodeterminedtheannualpowerproductionfromeachtypeofgeneratingplantinthesystem.Thesystemcostanalysesthendeterminedtheannualcostforamortizingandoperatingthefacilities.Summingtheannualcostforgenerationandtransmissionofeachofthegeneratingfacilitiesgaveatotalcost,byyear,fortheentiresystembeinganalyzed.DiVidingthetotalannualcostbythepowerproducedgaveanaverageannualcostofpowerfortheentiresystem.1/ThisbreakdownofOM&Rcostsbyprojectfeatureforconvenienceoftheload/resourceanalysisresultedinslightlyhighercost.Signifi-cancetoSusitnarateis,atmost,lessthan1percent.77 RoundedThermalgeneratingcapacityadditionstotheyear2010fromtheprevioustablesaresummarizedasfollows:.Table21SUMMARYOFTHERMALGENERATINGCAPACITYADDITIONSTOTHEYEAR2010UpperSusitnaProjectPowerMarketAnalysisCase1:WithoutInterconnection&WithoutSusitnaAssumedLoadMegawattsGrowthAnchorageFairbanksTotalLow2,6004713,071Mid4,6008715,471High8,2001,4719,671Case2:InterconnectionWithoutSusitnaAssumedLoadMegawattsGrowthAnchorageFairbanksTotalLow2,2004712,671Mid4,2006714,871High8,2001,2719,471Case3:InterconnectionWithSusitnaAssumedLoadMegawattsGrowthAnchorageFairbanksTotalLow1,0001711,171Mid3,0003713,371High6,6001,0717,671Note:BradleyLakeandSusitnahydroelectricprojectsarenotincluded.78 ResultsLoad/ResourceAnalysesThescheduleofnewplantadditionsforAnchorageandFairbanksfor1978-2011areshownintheappendedBattellereport.Asummaryofthethermalgeneratingcapacityadditionsisintable21.FurtherdiscussionofthecomputermodelresultsandgraphsarealsoshownintheappendedBattellereport;Underthecriteriaused,completionofconstructionforinterconnectionisscheduledin1986, 1989,and1994forhigh,midandlowloadgrowthcases,respectively,withoutUpperSusitna.WithUpperSusitna,thecorrespondingdatesare1986,1989,and1991.SystemPowerCostsAnnualsystemcostsandunitpowercostsarepresentedindetail,bothtabularandgraphically,intheappendedBattellereport.Thefollowingtabulationssummarizethesefindings.Table22showsannualpowersystemcostsforcases1,2,and3,high,midandlowrange,with0percentinflation.ThefirstfewyearsafterWatanacomeson-line,thetotalannualpowersystemcostsincreaseslightly.However,comparingthetotalannualpowersystemcostsforthe1990-2011periodtocase1,constructionoftheSusitnaproject·resultsinasavingsof$2.20billion,or12percent.Figure18showstherelativesavingsinannualcostforcase3,withSusitna,andcase1,withoutSusitna,forthethreeloadgrowthassumptions.Tables23,24,and24asummarizeAnchorageandFairbanksseparatelyplusthecombinedsystemaverageannualpowercostsin¢/kwhfor1978-2011.ThetablesverifythefeasibilityoftheintertieinpowercostsavingsforAnchorageandFairbanks.Bytheyear2000,systemwidepowerrateswouldbe:79 80AveragePowerSystemRatesforAnchorageandFairbanks-0%Inflation(¢/kwh)1./AnchorageandFairbanksarenotinterconnectedforcase1,thecombinedsystemrateisshownforacademiccomparisonpurposesonly.Case3WithSusitnaand-IntertieCase2WithIntertieCaseIWithoutSusitnaorIntertieFortheAnchorage-CookInletarea,inclusionoftheSusitnaProjectintothesystem(case3)generallyraisesthecostofpowerabovecases1and2duringthefirsttwotofouryearsafterWatanacomeson-line,butlowerspowercostsduringthe1996-2011period.Thisreductioninthecostofpowerissignificantinmostcases.FortheFairbanks-TananaValleyloadcenterconstructionoftheinter-connection(case2)againgenerallyreducesthecostofpowercomparedtowithoutaninterconnection(case1).TheinclusionoftheSusitnaproject(case3)generallyraisesthecostofpowerabovecase2forabouttwoyearsafterWatanacomeson-line,but,aswiththeAnchorage-CookInletarea,resultsinlowerpowercostsduringthe1996-2011period.CombinedCombinedCombinedAnch.Fbks.SystemAnch.Fbks.SystemAnch.Fbks.SystemHigh6.28.86.61/6.18.06.45.86.25.8Mid6.68.96.91/6.28.46.65.56.75.7Low7.19.27.5I/6.28.86.76.17.86.4ComparisonofPowerCostsbyYear2000PercentChangeinCostofPowerBelowCase1 -0%InflationCase2Case3CombinedCombinedAnch.Fbks.SystemAnch.Fbks.SystemHigh-1.6-10.0-3.1-6.7-41.9-13.8Mid-6.5-6.0-4.5-20.0-32.8-21.1Low-14.5-4.5-11.9-16.4-17.9 -17.2 Table 22 CCMBINED 1INC1l0RAGE-CCOK INI..ET AND FAIRBA.~-TANA.l\lA VAJ:..LEi.'ANNUAL PCWER SYSTEM COSTS -0%INFlATICN U~per Susitna Project Power Market Analysis ($Million) CASE I CASE II CASE III YE.l\.R Wii MEDIUM 'HIGH If::J/1 MEDIUM HIGH Wi[MEDIUM HIGH 1978-79 68.4 68.3 68.3 68.4 68.3 68.3 68.4 68.3 68.3 1979-80 80.3 80.2 80.2 80.3 80.2 80.2 80.3 80.2 80.2 1980-31 89.1 89.0 89.0 89.1 89.0 89.0 89.1 89.0 89.0 1981-82 95.9 95.9 95.9 95.9 95.9 95.9 95.9 95.9 95.9 1982-83 108.4 146.0 203.5 108.4 146.0 203.5 108~4 146.0 203.5 1983-84 107.1 147.4 245.3 107.1 147.4 245.3 107.1 147.4 245.3 1984-85 109.3 152.1 321.6 109.3 152.1 321.6 109.3 152.1 321.6 1965-86 120.7 252.5 383.2 120.7 252.5 383.2 120.7 252.5 383.2 1986-87 119.1 257.9 456.8 119.1 -It 257.9 434.0 119.1 -It 257.9 434.0 1987-88 173.4 296.7 464.7 173.4 296.7 502.1 .173.4 296.7 502.1 1988-89 170.8 298.5 547.9 170.8 298.5 510.8 170.8 298.5 510.8 1939-90 236.8 362.6 575.3 236.8 338.7 -It 593.7 236.8 '338.7 -It 593.7 1990-91 243.5 371.0 587.7 243.5 382.8 603.1 243.5 382.8 603.1 1991-92 256.8 422.4 667.7 256.8 434.0 682.0 293.4 434.0 682.0 -It 1992-93 292.5 5'07.0 754.9 292.5 498.1 735.1 290.5 498.1 735.1 00 1993-94 297.3 512.6 766.1 297.3 503.3 832.8 330.9 503.3 832.8 I-'1994-95 364.4 521.1 865.0 339.6 536.2 847.4 -It 487.9 1I 658.0 1I 990.7 iI 1995-96 404.8 591.3 863.6 382.7 629.8 951.3.487.6 662.7 1,004.1 1996-97 464.4 701.4 1,060.8 441.0 714.7 1,068.2 4fJ6.0 667.0 1,097.1 1997-98 480.6 783.7 1,164.7 517.4 737.2 1,172.2 479.1 688.5 1,165.6 1998-99 511.1 819.7 1,232.6 525.1 832.8 1,254.6 485.8 +721.4+1,210.4 + 1999-2000 592.9 888.2 1,389.3 527.2 841.7 1,333.7 506.6 722.9 1,222.4 2000-2001 586.2 886.7 1,450.2 600.2 899.8 1,423.1 495.9 719.9 1,253.7 2001-2002 588.7 894.8 1,471.2 602.7 907.9 1,503.9 494.8 725.9 1,355.3 2002-2003 584.1 955.3 1,544.0 598.1 931.3 1,576,7 487.2 827.2 1,426.4 2003-2004 587.5 998.7 1,661.5 601.6 999.4 .1,634.5 488.6 834.7 1,482.0 2004-2005 590.1 1,008.2 1,684.5 604.1 1,009.5 1,691.9 488.9 841.4 1,583.7 2005-2006 651.9 1,096.1 1,787.1 606.2 1,018.0 1,774.8 488.7 847.8 1,662.9 2006-2007 655.6 1,106.3.1,872.1 632.6 1,028.2 1,859.8 490.2 915.6 1,686.0 2007-2008 659.2 1,117.0 1,935.1 636.2 1,118.2 1,965.2 491.7 923.9 1,769.6 2008-2009 662.4 1,127.6 2,021.4 639.9 1,128.9 1,991.8 493.3 932.4 1,853.8 2009-2010 666.6 1,139.7 2,108.5 643.6 1,140.0 2,078.9 494.9 941.3 1,913.4 2010-2011 670.4 1,209.5 2,136.6 647.5 1,151.1 2,163.1 I 496.6 1,010.0 2,018.6 Total 12,290.3 19,905.4 32,606.3 12,115.1 19,666.1 32,671.7 10,981:;1 17,682.0 31,076.3 Subtotal 1990-2010 10,811.0 17,658.3 29,074.6 10,796.4 17,442.9 29,144.1 .9,502.1 15,458.8 27,548.7 Note:savings to total power system 1990-2010 for mid range case lof $17,658.3 million less case 3 $15,458.8 million is $2,199.5 million. *Inte.l:'connection installed #l'lata'1a on-line +Devil Ccmyon on-line APA1/79Case1High2010982000_~~"'-"-------lCase3Low82YEAR199094781980CaseI:without:SusitnoCase3:withSusifna,22001----+-------1-------1--------1400I----+----f-----fr-..,--++------I--------I20001----+-------1-------I------{--fiCase3High2001----+---,1:...--/-----#-+---------1--------1oc:o-o:?-.0'"--'---'--'-_...::.-"":.....I---=::...;;:..L_.l.-----IFigure18'COMBlr"EDANCHORAGE-COOL-(lNLETANDFAIRBANi<S-TANt\f~AVALLEYAftJNUALPO\fJERSYSTEMCOSTSViflTHANDVJITHOUTSUSJTNAUpperSusitnaProjectPowerMarketAnalysis2400r---....,-------r---------r------r"~1800..J..J:21600I----+-------+---------I-~f__+_----I~I14001----+-------+------:1'+-+-------1(J)I-(f)o12"00I----+-------+-----J~---I-------itCase1Medium()0:::!;:1000I----+-------+--~,;=_,i------I--__L.----ACase3Medium5oa....J800«~_---TCaseILowZ600r---r----~-_t_j_-___:;~.......-.;----l« -Table23ANCHORAGE-COOKINLETAREAAVERAGEPOWERCOSTS-CENTSPERKILOWATTHOUR-0%INFLATIONUpperSusitnaProjectPowerMarketAnalysisCase1Case2Case3YearHighMediumLowHighHediumLowHighl-1ediumLow78-79-1.31.31.41.31.31.41.31.479-801.4 1.51.71.41.51.71.41.7·80-811.31.61.81.31.61.8 1.31.881-821.21.61.91.21.61.9 1.21.982-833.22.92.23.22.92.23.22.283-843.62.82.13.62.82.13.62.184-854.02.82.24.02.82.24.02.285-864.64.3·2.44.64.32.44.62.486-875.04.22.34.8*4.22.34.8*2.387-884.84.73:75.34.73.75.33.788-895.44.43.55.14.43.55.14.43.589-905.14.84.25.74.5*4.25.74.5*4.290-914.8 4.54.15.44.84.15.44.84.191-925.2 5.04.15.7 5.34.15.7 5.34.6*92-935.55.64.75.45.94.75.4 5.94.493-945.3 5.34.65.75.64.65.75.65.094-955.55.15.35.55.44.9*6.4#6.9#7.3~rr95-965.85.65.75.65.85.46.0 6.56.896-975.96.26.55.86.45.86.26.16.597-986.06.5.6.35.96.16.66.2+5.8+6.3+98-996.16.36.16.06.56.46.15.86.199-20006.26.67.16.16.26.25.85.56.100-016.36.46.96.26.67.25.55.35.901-026.16.3 6.96.36.47.25.65.25.602-036.26.6 6.86.46.37.15.75.75.703-046.36.56.86.2 6.77.15.65.65.604-056.16.4 6.76.16.67.05.85.55.605-066.36.97.66.2 6.57.05.95.45.506-076.4·6.87.56.36.4 7.05.85.85.507-086.36.87.56.56.97.05.95.85.508-096.46.77.56.36.86.96.05.75.409-106.56.67.5 6.46.76.95.9 5.65.410-116.3 6.97.5 6.56.76.96.05.95.4*InterconnectionInstalled#Watanaon-line+DeveilCanyonon-line83APA11/78 Table24AVERAGEPCWERCOSTS-0%ThlFI..ATION(¢/KWH)FAIRBANKS-TANANA\lALLEYAREAUpperSusitnaProjectPowerMarketAnalysiscase1Case2Case3YearHighMediumII:JwHighMediumII:JwHighMediumII:Jw.78-794.14.34.4 4.14.3 4.41.34.34.479-804.14.34.54.14.34.51.44.34.580-814.14.34.74.14.34.71.34.34.781-824.04.34.74.04.34.71.24.34.782-833.84.24.73.84.24.73.24.24.783-843.43.84.33.43.84.33.63.84.384-855.23.43.95.23.43.94.03.43.985-864.75.43.64.75.43.64.65.43.686-875.95.13.35.5*5.13.34.8*5.1.3.387-885.64.83.05.14.83.05.34.83.088-895.54.83.15.04.83.15.14.83.188-906.56.35.64.75.8*5.65.75.8*5.690-916.56.45.84.65.95.85.45.95.891-926.26.25.94.45.75.95.75.77.292-936.87.35.66.35.45.65.45.46.993-946.67.15.57.35.2 5.55.7 5.26.894-957.46.97.17.06.56.7*6.4#6.8#8.8#95-967.26.97.3 7.87.76.96.06.78.996-977.67.8 7.18.27.48.36.26.48.697-988.18.37.98.77.89.16.26.97.898-998.99.19.48.38.78.96.1+6.9+7.6+99-20008.8 8.99.28.08.4.8.85.86.77.800-018.38.79.37.78.38.85.56.67.801-028.08.69.37.58.28.85.66.57.702-037.78.49.17.29.08.75.77.37.603-048.59.89.18.08.98.75.67.27.604-058.29.7 9.18.78.88.75.87.17.505-068.09.59.08.48.68.65.97.07.406-077.89.49.08.28.610.15.86.97.407-088.59.39.18.18.510.15.96.87.408-098.49.29.07.98.410.16.06.87.409-108.29.19.17.78.310.25.96.77.410-118.09.1 9.17.68.210.26.0 6.67.4*InterconnectionInstalled#Watanaon-line+Devilcanyonon-line84 Table24aCOMBINEDANCHORAGE-COOKINLETANDFAIRBANKS-TANANAVALLEYAREAAVERAGEANNUALPOWERCOST1/(¢/KWH)UpperSusitnaProjectPowerMarketAna1y~isCase2Case3YEARHIGHMEDIUM.LOWHIGHMEDIilllLOW1978-791979-801980-811981-821982-831983-841984'-851985-861986-874.90*4.90*1987-885.315.311988-895.075.071989-905.564.79*5.564.79*1990-915.245.065.24 5.061991-925.52 5.395.52 5.395.141992-935.585.835.58 5.834.891993-945.945.575.94if5.57if5.35if1994-955.715.635.28*6.676.917.591995-965.926.195.696.256.52 7.251996-976.186.616.296.35 6.17 6.931997-986.346.44 7.086.306.016.561998-996.366.886.916.14+5.96+6.39+1999-20006.376.61 6.685.845.686.422000-20016.476.87 7.545.70 5.506.232001-20026.536.757.515.895.406.16-2002-20036.556.75 7.395.935.996.022003-20046.517.067.375.905.905.982004-20056.476.96 7.336.055.80 5.932005-20066.526.857.306.115.715.882006-20076.586.767.555.976.025.852007-20086.717.187.536.045.945.822008-20096.57 7.097.516.ll5.865.792009-20106.627.017.506.105.785.762010-20ll6.676.92 7.486.236.075.741/CaseInotinterconnected,thereforecombinedsystemratedoesnotapply.*InterconnectionInstalledifWatanaon-line+DevilCanyonon-line85 PartVIII.INVESTMENTCOSTS86Transmissionsystemcostsaresummarizedintable25.forDevilReclamationcostlyandInvestmentcostsarecalculatedbyaddinginterestduringconstructiona ttheannualrateof71/2percenttoconstructioncostspresentedpreviously.ConstructioncostsforpowerproducingfacilitieswerepreparedbytheCorpsofEngineers(Corps);thoseforthetransmissionfacilitesbyAlaskaPowerAdministration(APA).APApreparedestimatesofinterestduringconstructionbasedon71/2percent.Table26summarizestheinvestmentcostsrequired.Transmissionestimatesarebasedonsameplanpresentedin1976report,withcostsupdatedbyindexing.Currentcostsfortransmissionfacilitiesarebasedonindexingconstructioncostspresentedinthe1976report(January1975prices)tocurrentlevels(October1978prices)byapplyingafactorof1.38toclearingandrights-of-way,1.33toallothertransmissionlinecomponents(accessroads,structures,etc.),and1.28tosubstationsandswitchyards,resultinginanoverallfactorofabout1.32.Theclearingandrights-of-wayfactorisbasedonexperienceoftheAlaskaDepartmentofTransportationandonrecentexperienceoftheUSBRandBonnevillePowerAdministration(BPA).The1975pricesarebasedoncomponentpricesfromBPAwithanincreaseof90percentforlaborand10percentformaterialtransportationfromthe~acificNorthwesttoAlaska.Examinationindicatedthatthesefactorsarealsovalidforthisanalysis,butshouldbereevaluatedifmoredetailedcostestimatesaremadeinfutureyears.Theprojectscheduleincludes(1)first-stageconstructionofWatanadamandpowerplantandthetotalprojecttransmissionsystem,and(2)second-stageDevilCanyondamandpowerplant.ThetransmissionsystemwillbecompletedaboutthreeyearsbeforecompletionofWatanatodevelopinterconnectionbenefitsbydeferringofrequiredsteamplantcapacity(discussedinPartXIII,LoadResourceAnalysis).CorpsestimatesincludealternativedesignconceptsCanyon--thin-arch,asorginallyproposedbyBureauof(USBR),andtheconcretegravitydesign,whichismoreconservative. Table25CONSTRUCTIONCOSTSUMMARYUpperSusitnaProjectPowerMarketAnalysisItemTransmissionLinesClearingRight-of-WayAccessRoadsLineStructuresSubtotal-T.L.SWitchyardsandSubstationsFairbanksSubstationTalkeetnaSubstationAnchorageSubstationHealySwitchyardWatanaSwitchyardDevilCanyonSWitchyardSubtotal-S.S.TotalRounded87ConstructionCost($1,000-10/78)SystemNo.5$3,3505,00019,110242,190$269,650$11,71010,10015,8904,7706,36019,660$68,490$338,140$338,000APA10/78 Table26INVESTMENTCOSTSUMM.~($/MILLICN)UpperSusitnaProjectPowerMarketAnalysis833.63,334.8APA10/'338.0D2.5470.5Total2,092.0772.32,864.3665.0168.6833.6DevilCanyon(2nd)338.0D2.5470.5Watana.(1st)2,501.21,427.0603.72,030.788ConstructionInterestduringConstructionInvestmentConstructionInterestduringConstructionInvestmentPowerPrcXluctionFacilitiesPowerTransmissionFacilitiesTotalInvestme.Tlt-SusitnaStage 18PARTIX.OPERATION,MAINTENANCE,ANDREPLACEMENTPLANAi\lDCOSTSOperationandMaintenanceT~isupdatesinformationfurnishedinthe1976report.Operation,maintenance,andreplacementcostswereindexedforthisreport.PlanDescriptionThisplanassumesFederaloperationofthefacilities..TheplanassumestheheadquartersandmainoperationscenterfortheSusitnaprojectwillbenearTalkeetnaoratsomeotherequallyaccessiblepoint.EquipmentatthecenterwillremotelycontroltheoperationofthegenerationandtransmissionsystemandoperationofDevilCanyonandWatanadamsandreservoirs.Electrician/operatorsandmechanic/operatorswillbelocatedatthepowerp1antstoprovideroutinemaintenanceandmanualoperationwhenrequired.Specializedpersonnel,suchaselectronictechniciansandmeterandrelayrepairmen,willservicebothpowerplantsandthesubstationsandswitchyardsfromtheprojectheadquarters.Projectadministration,includingsupervisionofpowerproduction,waterscheduling,andtransmissionfacilities,willalsobefromtheprojectheadquarters•.Majorturbineandgeneratorinspectionandmaintenancewillbedonebyelectricians,mechanics,engineers,andotherexperiencedpersonnelfromAfA.Manufacturers'representativesandotherspecializedexpertisewillbeconsulted.AlaskaPowerAdministration's(APA)headquartersofficeinJuneauwillhandlepowermarketing,accounting,personnelmanagement,andgeneraladministrativeservices.Transmissionlinemaintenancewillbeperformedbytwolinecrews,withassistancefromtheexistingEklutnaProje'ctlinecrew.Transmissionltnemaintena:ncewarehous~sandpartsstorageyardswillbeatDevilCanyonorWatana,approximatelymid-waybetweenDevilCanyonandFairbanks,andattheprojectheadquarters.Linecrewpersonnelwillbestationedalongthelinesatdesignatedmaintenancestationsandatthemajorsubstationstoprovideroutinelinepatrolandmaintenancetasks.Crewsfromthroughouttheprojectwillbeassembledformajorwork.Visitorfacilitieswithprovisionsforself-guidedpowerplanttourswillneedassistancefromoperationpersonnel.Project-relatedrecreationfacilitieswillrequirecooperationbetweenFederal,State,andlocalinterests,andareassumedtobemaintainedbyaStateorlocalentity.89 Proj'ectoperation,maintenance,andadministrationcouldbecombinedwiththeexistingEklutnaProject.EklutnacouldbesupervisorycontrolledfromtheSusitnaprojectoperationscenterwithelectrician/operatorsandmechanic/operatorsstationedatEklutna.Itisestimatedthatapproximately$100,000/yearcouldbesavedbyjointoperation.MarketingandAdministrationMarketingandadministrationincludethreemainfunctions:1.AdministrationPersonnelmanagementPropertymanagementBudgeting.MarketingpolicyRateandrepaymentstudies2.AccountingCustomerbillingCollectingAccountspayableFinancialrecordsPayroll3.MarketingRateschedulesPowersalescontractsOperatingagreementsSystemreliabilityandcoordinationPartofthisworkwouldbecarriedoutbytheproject,withoveralladministrationandsupportservicesprovidedbytheAPAheadquartersstaff.•AnnualCostsTheestimatedannualcostsforoperation,maintenance,marketing,andadministrationarebasedonitemizedestimatesofpersonnel,equipment,supplies,andservicesneededtodothework,withaprovisionforcontingencies.TheestimateassumesFederalclassifiedpersonnelprovidingmanagementandadministrativefunctionsandwagegradepersonnelperformingtechnicaloperationandmaintenanceactivities.Classifiedsalariesarebasedonamid-graderate.WagegraderatesarebasedonthoseineffectintheAnchorageareaandincludebasichourlyrates,benefits,andovertime.90 Table29presentscalculationsoftheannualreplacementfund.ReplacementsCostsbymajorcategoryandnumberofpersonnelaresummarizedintable28.TotalOM&R$1,000$2,620700$3,320$260170$430AnnualReplacement$1,00091$2,360530$2,890AnnualOperationandMaintenance$1,000Pricebase-October1978.WatanaDevilCanyonTotalThefollowingtabulationsummarizestheoperation,maintenance,andreplacementcosts:Itemizedcostsforoperation,maintenance,marketing,andadministrationarepresentedintable27.ThereplacementcostisbasedonfactorsdevelopedfromUSBRexperience.Thefactorsapplytothetotalpowerplant,substation,switchyard,transmissiontower,fixtures,andconductors.Replaceablesincludegeneratorwindings,communicationequipment,asmall,percentofthetransmissiontowers,anditemsinthesubstationandswitchyards.Itemscoveredbyroutineannualmaintenancecostsincludevehicles,smallbuildings,camputilities,andmaterialsandsupplies.Majorfeatures,suchasdamsandpowerplantstructures,areconsideredtohaveserviceliveslongerthanthe50-yearrepaymentperiod.Theircostsarenotcoveredbythereplacementfunds.Right-of-wayandclearingcostsarenotincluded.The7~percentinterestrateusedforprojectrepaymentwasusedtoestablishthereplacementsinkingfund.Costsofsupplies,equipment,and,personnelrequirementsarebasedonBureauofReclamation(USBR)guidelinesandtheexperienceoftheEklutnaandSnettishamProjects.TheEklutnaProjectisfullystaffed,il1cludingalinecrew,whichhasbeeninoperationsince1955.TheSnettishamProjectisisolated;itisseparatedfromtheJuneauloadcenterby45milesofruggedterrainandwater.Amaintenancecrewresidesandperformsroutinemaintenanceatthepowerplant;projectoperationsareremotelycontrolledfromJuneau.TheSusitnaprojectwouldhavesomecharacteristicsofbothprojects.Theannualreplacementcostprovisionestablishesasinkingfundtofinancereplacementofmajoritemswhichhaveanexpectedservicelifeoflessthanthe50-yearprojectrepaymentperiod.Theobjectiveistocovercostsandensurefinancingforatimelyreplacementofmajorcostitemstokeeptheprojectoperatingefficientlythroughoutitslife. Table27ANNUALQPERATION&MAINTENANCECOSTESTIMATEUpperSusitnaProjectPowerMarketAnalysisOctober1978PricesDamandPowerplant,TotalTransmissionSystemGradeAnnualPersonnelNumberorRateCostSupervisory&ClassifiedProjectManager1GS-14$35,000AssistantProjectManager1GS-1329,500ElectricalEngineer1GS-1224,800MechanicalEngineer1GS-1224,800Supply&PropertyClerk1GS-917,100AdministrativeAssistant1GS-714,000Clerk-Steno1GS-511,300SubtotalSupervisory7$.156,500&ClassifiedWageGradeElectrician217.00/hr.$70,720Mechanic2l7.00/hr.70,720HeavyDutyEquip.Operator117.00/hr.35,360Laborer213.00/hr.54,080MeterRelayMechanic117.OO/hr.35,360ElectronicTechnician1l7.00/hr.35,360PowerplantOperator617.00/hr.212,160Ass't.PowerplantOperator415.00/hr.124,800SubtotalWageGrade19$638,560LineCrewForeman219.00/hr.$79,040Lineman417.00/hr.141,440EquipmentOperator217.00/hr.70,720Groundman417.00/hr.141,440SubtotalLineCrew12$432,640AllowancesC.O.L.A.-Sup.&Classx25%39,130ShiftDifferential22,430SundayPay12,030Overtime32,000GovernmentContributions96,410LongevityN.A.Subtotal-Allowances$202,000TOTALPERSONNELCOST38$1,429,70092 InitialServiceNo.CostLifeTractorwithDozer1$150,00010$15,000Loader175,000107,500Maintainer175,000107,500Pickup1080,000711,400Sedan15,0007700Tractor&Lowboy175,000107,500Dumptruck125,000102,500Flatbed220,00072,900Firetruck125,000102,500Snotrac216,00072,300Backhoe135,000103,500Crane,50ton1200,0002010,000HydraulicCrane,20ton"1100,000205,000Linetruck4200,0001020,000Subtotal-Equipment$98,300APAHeadquartersMarketingandAdministration165,000Subtotal1,966,000Contingencies(20%+)394,000TOTALWATANA&TRANSMISSION$2,360,000Table27(cont.)ANNUALOPERATION&MAINTENANCECOSTESTIMATEMiscellaneousTelephoneOfficialtravelVacationtravelSupplies,Services&Maintenance--PowerplantSupplies&Services--Vehicles&EquipmentEmployeetrainingLinesprayGovernmentcampmaintenanceSubtotal-MiscellaneousEquipmentOperation,Maintenance,andReplacement93AnnualCost$10,00019,00019,000125,00050,0006,00025,00019,000$273,000 PersonnelDevilCanyonDamandPowerplantTable27(cont.)&~UALOPERATION&MAINTENANCECOSTEST~~TE2,3001,1003,40086,00035,000444,000$62,40070,72070,72031,200$235,04012,00021,1606,500$39,660$274,700$3,8001,200112,50013,400$130,900$$$$530,0002,360,000$2,890,00077Service/LifeDevilCanyon.2@15.00/hr.2@17.00/hr.1@17.00/hr.1@15.00/hr.InitialCost2 @16,0001 @10,000PickupSnowtractorIncreasebasestaffforAssistantoperatorsElectriciansMechanicsMaintenanceSubtotalSubtotal-Equipment94APAHeadquartersMarketingandAdministrationEquipmentMiscellaneousVacationtravelEmployeetrainingSupplies,Services&MaterialsSuppliesandServicesSubtotal-MiscellaneousOvertimeGovernmentContributionsForemanPaySubtotalSubtotal-PersonnelWatanaandDevilCanyon,supervisorycontrolledfromaremoteoperation-dispatchcenter.SubtotalDevilCanyonAdditionsContingencies(20%~TOTALDEVILCANYONO&MADDITIONTOTALWATANAANDTRJu~SMISSIONTOTALSUSITNAPROJECT Table 28 OPERATJON AND MAINTENANCE COST SUMMARY Upper Susitna Project Power Market Analysis Watana &Trans- mission System Number Dollars Personnel: Devil Canyon Number Dollars Total Devil Canyon, Watana &Transmission Number Dollars '0 L11 Salaries/Wages,Allowances Classified Personnel 7 Wage Board Personnel 31 Miscellaneous: Telephone,Travel,Supplies, Services,Training,Line Spray,Camp Maintenance Equipment: Annual cost Replacement Marketing and Administration APA Headquarters Subtotal Contingencies (20%.:!:-) TOTAL $1,429,700 273,000 98,300 165,000 $1,966,000 394,000 $2,360,000 $274,700 o 7 130,900 3,400 35,000 $444,000 86,000 $530,000 $1,704,400 7 38 403,900 101,700 200,000 $2,410,000 480,000 $2,890,000 Table 29 REPLACEMENT COSTS Upper Susitna Project Power Market Analysis Watana and Transmission System Devil Canyon Total Annual Annual Annual Annual Rep lace-Rep lace-Rep lace-Replace- ment Construction ment Construction ment Construction ment Feature Factor Cost Cost Cost Cost Cost Cost Powerplant 0.0010 $197,370,000 $197,370 $120,860,000 $120,860 $318,230,000 $318,230 Transmission towers, fixtures,&conductors 0.0001 251,324,000 25,130 -- -- 251,324,000 25,130 1.0 (J'\ Substations and switchyards 0.0033 11,000,000 36.300 14,760,000 48,710 25,760,000 85,010 Total $258,000 $169,570 $/~28,370 Rounded $260,000 $170,000 $430,000 Replacement factors are based on 7 1/2 percent interest rate. Construction cost based on the portion of the feature"subject to replacement. PARTX.FINANCIALANALYSISThispartestimatesthemarketforprojectpmverandevaluatespowerratesneededtorepaytheinvestmentinpowerfacilities.Powermarketsizeisinmoredetailinthisstudythaninthe1976report.Likewise,costsareslightlymoredetailed.TheUpperSusitnaProjectisprimarilyforhydroelectricpowergenerationandtransmission•.Minorportionsofprojectcosts(lessthan1percent)wouldbeallocatedtootherpurposes,suchasrecreationandfloodcontrol.Projectfinancialviabilityistheessentialelementindemonstratingfeasibilityofthepowerdevelopment.Therepaymentrateisinfluencedprincipallybysizeofthemarket,amountofinvestment,andapplicableinterestrates.Operation,maintenance,andreplacementcostsareaminorpartoftotalannualcosts;theyinfluencetheseratesinsignificantly.Ifratesneededtorepaythehydroprojectareattractiveincomparisontootheravailablealternatives,theprojectiseconomicallyjustifiable.The1976reportcomparedthecostsoffivedamandreservoirplansfordevelopingtheSusitnaRiverhydroelectricpotentialandfoundallcostswerewithina15percentrange.Therefore,thescopinganalysiswasnotrepeatedforthisstudy.InadditiontoanalyzingthebasicSusitnaprojectplan,'variationswerealsoanalyzedforsensitivity.Theseincludedinterconnectionwithadditionalserviceareas,differenttiming.forinterconnectionbetweenAnchorageandFairbanks,useofthemoreexpensiveDevilCanyongravitydaminsteadofthearchdam,lowloadgrowth,andtheeffectofinflation.Inaddition,theload/resourceandsystemcostanalysesexamineimpactoftheSusitnaProjectonoverallsystemcosts.MarketforProjectPowerUpperSusitnawilloperateaspartofahydro/thermalpowersystem.The1976reportassumedthemarketforSusitnafirmenergyas75percentofthemid-rangeutilityrequirements.Averageratesforfirmenergywereestimatedont~atbasis.Forthisanalysis,themarketforfirmenergywasassumedtobeapproximatedbyloadgrowthafterSusitnapowerbecomesavailable,plusmarketmadeavailablethroughretirementofolderplants.ThebalanceoftheSusitnaenergyisassumedmarketableassecondaryenergyforfuelreplacement,aslongasallenergyfitsundertheloadcurve.Avalueisassignedformarketablesecondaryenergybasedonestimatedfuturecoalcosts.Theactualvalueisprobablysignificantlyhigher.97 Thevalueoffuelreplacementenergyisthesameasthatusedintheloadresourceanalysis,whichis$1.00to$1.50/mil1:LonBtuby1935.Thisisbasedontheconceptthatlarge,efficientcoaltineswillbedevelopedintheBelugaareabythen.Thepriceisescalatedat2percentperyearabovethezeroinflat-ionratefrom1985to1994,resultinginacostof$1.20and$1.80/millionBtu'~.Table30summarizestheestimatedmarketforSusitnaenergyusingthesecriteria.CostofProjectTable31summarizestheconstructioncost,interestduringconstruction,operation,maintenance,andreplacementcosts-forDevilCanyonandWatanaphases.ConstructioncostswerefurnishedbytheCorpsforanOctober1978pricelevel.InterestduringconstructionwascalculatedfromCorpsconstructioncashflowestimateswithinterestaccumulateduntiltheprojectbecomesoperational.OM&RcostswereupdatedfromAPAearlierestimates.Costshaveincreasedfromthe1976reportforseveralreasons.Table32presentsasummarycomparisonofthecostfactors.Interestrateshaveincreasedfrom65/8to71/2percent.DesignandcostchangesweremadebytheCorpsasaresultoffoundationdrilling.CostswereupdatedfortheDevilCanyondamandthetransmissionlinebyindexingprocedures.Themajorchangeinoperation,maintenance,andreplacementcostswasduetoinflationinpersonnelwagesandprovisionsforcon-tingenciessuchasunlisteditemsandstateoftheart.WatanaIsconstructionperiodwasextendedfrom6yearsto10years,increasingitsconstructionperiodfrom10yearsto14years.Therevisedprojectinvestmentcostis89percenthigherthaninthe1976report.98 99UpperSusitnaRiverProjectPowerMarketAnalysisl/Percentoftotalarearequirements1,385(13)1/4,686-(35)1/6,767-(45)l/2,4012,0431,1975552,8722,5432,1011,7321,11580423520oAnnualEnergyMillionKImFuelReplacementSalesGWHEstimatedMarketforNewHydroelectricPowerMEDIUMESTTI1ATE13,28815,08310,323AnnualEnergyMillionKWH6331,3852,2312,8733,5314,2444,6865,0555,6305,9836,3526,7676,787FirmEnergySalesGWHEstimatedAnchorageandFairbanksEnergyCOMPARISONWITHTOTALAREAPOWER-REQUIREMENTSTABLE30MARKETFORUPPERSUSITNAPOWERANCHORAGEANDFAIRBANKSAREAS2005199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620001995YearYearDataSource:APALoad/ResourcesAnalysisMediumLoadGrowthEstimates,EnergyLossesareincluded. PricelevelisOctober1978.InterestrateforrepaymentpurposesinFY1979is7-1/2%.UpperSusitnaProjectPowerMarketAnalysisTable31INVESTMENTANDOM&RCOSTSUMMARY2,8904303,3202,864,300470,5003,334,800TotalSystem1998665,0001./168,600833,600DevilCanyonWatana1994338,000132,500470,5001,427,000603,7002,030,700Costs-$1,000AnnualOperationandMaintenanceAnnualReplacementAnnualOM&R100ConstructionCostsInterestDuringConstructionInvestmentCost1/CostsareforarchdamplanatDevilCanyon.2/Transmissionsystemassumed.onlinein1991.CompletionDateUnitConstructionCostsInterestDuringConstructionInvestmentCostTransmissionFacilitiesl/PowerProductionFacilitiesTotalSystemInvestmentCost AverageRateDeterminationTable33summarizestheestimatedaveragefirmenergyrateferr:..::.:nenergyneededtorepayprojectfacilitiesinv.estmentformid-rangeloadgrowth·conditions.Themethodusedissimilartothatusedinthe1976report.PresentFederalcriteriaforpowerproducingfacilitiesrequirerepayment·ofprojectcosts,withinterest,within50yearsaftertheunitbecomesrevenueproducing.TheapplicableinterestrateforFiscalYear1979is71/2percent..Revenueswerecreditedtotheprojectfromsaleofsecondaryenergyatafuelreplacementrateof1.2¢/kwhduringearlyyearsofprojectoperation.Theaveragerequiredrateforrepaymentover50yearsafterthelastunitisinstalledis4.7¢/kwh.Totalrepaymentperiodwillbe54years\rithDevilCanyoncomingon-linefouryearsafterWatana.Alternativestothebasicprojectplanwereanalyzedtodetermineeffectsonaveragepowerrates:1.DevilCanyongravitydaminlieuofthethin-archdam:Investmentcostincreased$204.9million.Averagerateforfirmenergyincreasedtoatotalof4.9¢/kwh.2.TransmissioninvestmentdeferreduntilWatanaphasecomeson-line(1994):Watanaphaseinvestmentreduced$76million.AverageratereducedO.l¢/k\mtoatotalof4.6¢/kwh.3.Midloadgrowthcase,5percentinflation:Investmentcostincreased$3.598billion.Revenueneedsincreased$243millionannually.Firmenergyisthesameforallmidgrowthcases.Averagerateforfirmenergyincreased4.7¢/kwhto9.7¢/kwh.4.Lowloadgrowthcase:Revenueneedssameasformidrangegrowthcase.Firmenergysalesdecreased;fuelreplacementsalesincreased.Averagefirmenergyrateincreased1.7¢/kwh.AllCorpsplansarebasedoncompletingWatanafirst,fQllowedbyDevilCanyonfouryearslater.Thisisappropriateformidrangeandhighrangegrowthconditions,butiflowrangeconditionsremain,itmaymeantheDevilCanyonunitcouldbedeferredafewyears.101 PowerMarketingConsiderationsTheaveragerateisusefulforcomparingtheproposalwiththealternatives.Actualmarketingcontractswilllikelyincludeseparateprovisionsfordemandandenergycharges,wheelingcharges,reserveagreements,andotherfactors.Therearesomebuilt-ininequitiesforanymethodofpricing.Whatamountstoapostagestamp-rateisusedbymostutilitiesandlargeFederalsystems.Thatis,powerratesarethesameforalldeliverypointsonthesystem.Actualcostsvarywiththedistance,size,andcharacteristicsofload--itismore.costlytoserveasmallloadseveralmilesfromthepowersourcethantoservealargeloadnearby.Policiesvaryfromsystemtosystemasto"hookup"costsbornbythecustomers.102 103Note:Totalenergyduringperiodofanalysisisthesameinbothreports.Differenceisduetovariationinloadbuild-up.Table32COSTSUMMARYCOMPARISONWITH1976INTERIMFEASIBILITYREPORT-6.+123+97+110+38+110+111+265+195+422+265+104+70+67+89+67+60o+40+72+54+32+60+13PercentDifferenceJ...mount+4yrs.+3o+4yrs+438.3+111.4+107.1656.8+7/8%-2952.58+5.57121.16+0.87+126.73+125.86+595.0+233.0+82.0+910.0+1,033.3+344.4+189.1+1,566.84.693.144,92311.34231.00242.34239.207-1/2%603.7168.6132.5904.810yrs.8314yrs.2,030.7833.6470.53,334.81,427.0665.0338.02,430.01978MarketabilityAnalysisUpdate6-5/8%165.457.225.4248.06yrs.5310yrs.2.272.115,218113.34$115.615.77109.84997.4489.2281.41,768.0832.0432.0256.01,520.01976InterimFeasibilityReportTotalAnnualEquiv.CostUpperSusitnaProjectPowerMarketAnalysisAnnualEquivalentOM&RAnnualCostforRepaymentofInvestmentTotalAnnualEquiv.EnergyCost-¢/IGffiConstructionCostWatanaDevilCanyonTransmissionSystemTotalConstructionPeriodWatanaDevilCanyonTransmissionSystemTotalInvestmentCostWatanaDevilCanyonTransmissionSystemTotalInterestDuringConstructionWatanaDevilCanyonTransmissionSystemTotalInterestRateforRepayment(LessSecondaryEnergySales/-(FuelReplacementSales)~TotalNetAnnualEquiv.CostAnnualEquiv.EnergyGWHl/1/MedianloadgrowthItem(Costs$Million) Table 33 AVERAGE RATE DETERMINATION (WATANA AND DEVIL CANYON) Upper Susitna Project Power Market Analysis Project Costs $1,000 1994 PW Costs $1,000 Project Energy Sales Million KWH Revenue Producing Firm Fuel Replacement 1994 PW Fuel Replace- Year Investment OM&R Investment OM&R Energy Energy Sales Firm Energy ment Sales (1994-2005) 1994 2,501,200 2,620 2,501,200 2,437 633 2,401 589 2,233 1995 2,620 2,267 1,385 2,OL13 1,198 1,768 1996 2,620 2,109 2,231 1,197 1,796 964 1997 2,620 1,962 2,873 555 2,151 416 (1998-2047) 1998 833,600 3,320 624,200 32,256 3,531 2,872 2,459 2,000 1999 3,320 [1,244 2.543 2.750 1,648 2000 3,31W [1,686 2,101 2,824 1,266 2001 3,320 5,055 1,732 2,834 971 2002 3,320 5,630 1,115 2,937 582 2003 3,320 5,983 804 2,903 390 2004 3,320 6,352 235 2,867 106 2005 3,320 6,767 20 2,841 8 2006-20L.7 6,787 000 36,171 Totals 3,33 LI,800 3,125,400 [11,031 64,320 12,352 Annual Equivalents 239,200 3,141 4,923 845 (3)Equivalent Annual Firm Energy Sales (4)Average Rate For Repa~nent ($231,000,000/ 4,923,000,000 KWH) Average Rate Computation: (1)Annual Costs: (2)Revenue From Fuel Replacement Energy at 12 mills per kilowatt hour Capital OM&R Total $239,200,000 3,140,000 $242,340,000 -11 ,340 2 000 $231,000,000 4,923,000,000 KWIl 46.9 mills/KWH ActualratesfortheSusitnasystemcouldreflectseveralitemsofcostsandrevenuesnotidentifiedintheprojectstudies.Forexample,duringitslife,projectfacilitieswouldlikelybeusedtowheelpowerfromothersources.Wheelingrevenueswillloweroverallprojectpowerratessomewhat.Conversely,wheelingcostsforprojectpowerdeliveredovernon-Federaltransmissionlineswillbeaddedtoprojectrateschedules.ThisisnowdoneunderA:PAmarketingcontractsfortheSnettishamProject;therearesimilarsituationsinotherFederalpowersystems.MarketAspectsofOtherTransmissionAlternativesItisreasonabletoexpectmodificationsoftheprojecttransmissionsystemasrequirements(orneeds)change.Themain34s-kvand230-kvlinescouldbeupgradedsubstantiallybyaddingcompensationandtransformercapacity.Substationscouldbeaddedasfutureloadsincreasetoacase-by-casedeterminationofeconomics.Similarly,extensionsoftheprojecttransmissionlinestoserveotherareaswouldbeconsideredonthebasisofneeds,economics,andavailablealternatives.Anchorage-CookInletAreaThecostsintheproposedplanarepremisedondeliverypointstosubstationsnearTalkeetnaandAnchorage.RoughestimatesindicatesimilarcostsforaplanwithdeliverypointsatTalkeetna,Anchorage,andtheexistingAPAPalmersubstation.BasicallytheproposedplanincludescoststoprovidefordeliverypointsontheexistingCEAandA:PAsystemsnorthofKnikArm,butdoesnotincludecostsofdeliveringpoweracrossoraroundtheArm.WithorwithouttheSusitnaproject,additionaltransmissioncapabilityisneededontheapproachestoAnchorage.CEAplansforaKnikArmsystemconsiders230-kvtransmissionanimportantstepindevelopingthiscapability,butmorecapacitywillbeneededbythemid-1980IS.Essentiallythesameproblemswillexistwithalternative'powersources,suchastheBelugacoals..Followingprojectauthorization,detailedstudieswillbeneededtoconsideralternativesforprovidingpoweracrossKnikArm.Costswouldbeworkedintoratestructuresthroughwheelingchargesonnon-Federallinesorannualcostsonprojectlines,ifneeded.ThetransmissionplantodeliverprojectpowerinAnchoragewillneedtobeworkedoutinthedetailedpostauthorizationstudies.Itwillinvolveaddedcosts,eitherwheelingchargesforprojectpowerovernon-Federallines,orconstructingprojecttransmissionlinesaroundorunderKnikArm.ThesecostscouldbeaboutthesameforalternativepowersourcessuchastheBelugacoals.Itisessentialthatschedulingofprojectfacilitiesbecloselytiedtothemarketingfunction.105 106the4.7¢/kwhratefortheSusitnaprojectisthantheestimatedcostofpowerfrom.coal-firedat5.2to6.4¢/kwhatOctober1978costs.Consideringcapitalcostsofboththesteamplantandhydropowerplantuntilconstructioniscomplete.Forthecompletedprojects,inflationaffectsonlythehydroprojectoperationandmaintenancecost,asmallpartoftheenergycost;Forthesteamplant,inflationcontinuestoincreasethefuelcostaswellasthemuchlargeroperationandmaintenancecost.Thedifferenceoftheeffectofinflationisshownonfigure19.CapitalandO&Mcostsareassumedtoinflateat5percentperyearforboth.Fuelcostsareassumedtoinflate2percentperyearhigherthanabasepriceof$1.00or$1.50permillionBtuin1985.TheconclusionsarethatSusitnaisconsiderablylesssusceptibletoinflationthansteamplants. COMPARISONOFSUSITNAFigure19ANDALTERNATIVECOAL-FiREDSTEAMPLANTRATESCONSIDERING5°10ANNUALINFLATIONtpperSusitnaProectPowerMfrketAnal!{SS//VVI////-/I/V·STEAMPLANT'"\AL,ERNATIVE#\Y/,VV/./VK......./'LSUSITNAAPA11792000199419951990ICE8197819801985YEAR*(FueIcostinfla1ed2%higher)10723457oII/213146171516:I:3:~IO......enl-Z 9wUIW8l-<{a:: PARTXI.GLENNALLENANDVALDEZ108IntroductionSusitnaprojectistosupplylargestpowermarketareas,Valley.IntroductionjustificationfortheUpperenergytotheState'stwoInletandFairbanks-TananaExistingPowerSystemValdezistheproposedsiteofamajorrefineryandpetrochemicalcomplextoprocesstheState'sroyaltyshareofPrudhoeBayoil.Plansarenotyetfinalized,butconstructioncouldbeginasearlyas1980.Thiswould'havemajorimpactsintermsofbothconstructionemploymentandalongtermincreaseinemploymentandpopulationforValdez,Theoperationsphaseoftherefineryinvolves1,000newjobsaccordingtorecentreports,GlennallenIspopulationandeconomyareexpectedtocontinuetogrow.VerypreliminarystudiessummarizedinthefollowingsectionindicateagoodchancethatthePalmer-Glennallenintertieisfeasible.SimilartoFairbanks,bothGlennallenandValdezhavebeenheavilyimpactedbytrans-Alaskaoilpipelineconstructionandoperation.ThepipelineterminusstorageandshippingfacilitiesareatValdez.Thepipelinewascompletedandwentintooperationin1977.TheGlennallen-Valdezarea1977populationwasapproximately9,905,39percenthigherthanin1974.However,the1976population(13,000)decreased31percentin1977.PowerMarketAreaTheCopperValleyElectricAssociation(CVEA)servesbothGlennallenandValdez.CVEA'sradialdistributionlinesextendfromGlennallen,30milesnorthontheCopperRiver,55milessouthontheCopperRivertoLowerTonsina,and70mileswestontheGlennHighway.Figure2outlinesthearea.CVEAisnowmovingintoinitialconstructionphasesofitsSolomonGulchhydroelectricplantnearValdez,andisinfinaldesignstagesforal38-kvtransmissionlineextending104milestointerconnectValdezandGlennallen.CVEAcouldbeinterconnectedwiththemajoruitlitiesintheAnchorage-CookInletareabyaddingatransmissionlinebetweenPalmerandGlennallen.Thetransmissiondistanceis136miles;minimumtransmissionvoltagewouldlikelybe139kv.Dependingonfuturedemand,ahighervoltagesuchas230kvmaybejustified.TheGlennallen-Valdezareaisrecognizedasapossibleadditionalmarketarea.ThetwocommunitiesaretheprincipalloadcentersfortheCopperValleyElectricAssociation(CVEA).Atpresent,botharesuppliedfromoil-firedgenerators. CVEAplanstoconstruct104milesofl38-kvlongtransmissionlinebetweenValdezandGlennallen.ThisisrelatedtotheSolomonGulch12-MWhydrodevelopmentnowbeginningconstruction.Atpresent,theutilityloadsareservedtotallybydieselgenerationof17.7WJ:10.1WflatValdezand7.6MWatGlennallen.TwosmallutilitiesservinglimitedareasonthehighwaysnorthofGlennallenareincludedinhistoricaldata.Theirinstalleddieselcapacitytotals1/3MW.TheAlyeskaoilterminalfacilityatValdezhas37.5MWinoil-firedsteam-turbinecapacity.Thisisatotalenergyfacilitythatsatisfiestheterminal'selectricalandsteamrequirements.PowerRequirementsThissectionsummarizeshistoricenergyuseandrelateddata,informationfroma1976loadforecastpreparedforCVEA,andsomegeneralobservationsonlikelymagnitudebffuturepowerrequirements.HistoricDataEnergyuseandpeakdemanddatawereobtainedfromthreepowergeneratingsourcesintheValdez-Glennallenarea:CVEA,theutilityservingover95percentofthearea;ChistochinaTradingPost;andPaxsonLodge,Incorporated.Theutilitydatayieldedinformationonenergyuse,peakdemand,andcustomersectorbreakdowns.PopulationandemploymentdatawerederivedfromstatisticsprOVidedbytheStateofAlaskaDepartmentofLabor.Thisinformationillustratesdemographiccharacteristicsorthestudyarea.The1970-77Valdez-Glennallenareaissummarizedontable34.Netgenerationbyutilityfrom1960-77isontable35.AnalysisTheenergyuse,population,andemploymentdatareflecteventstied~oconstructionandoperationoftheAlyeskaoilpipeline.Thelargejumpsinpopulationandemploymentduringtheconstructionyearscannotbedirectlytiedtoutilitypowerrequirementssincemostoftheworkerswerehousedinconstructioncampsthatsuppliedtheirownpower.The1977usedatashowtotalutilityrequirementsatmorethanfourtimesthe1970level.Totalnumberofcustomerstripledduringtheperiod.Percustomerresidentialuseincreasedfrom3,846to6,423kwhperyearoverthe7-yearperiod.Thishistoricdataprovidesnoclearinsighttoprobablefuturelevelsofpoweruse--anytrendsthatwouldbeusefulinforecastingarehiddenbytheconstructionimpacts.109 ForecastTable36summarizesfuturepowerdemandestimatesfromCVEA's1976powerrequirementsstudy.Thestudyincludedestimatesofdemandsthrough1991;APAmadearoughextensiontotheyear2000,assuminga 6percentrateofincrease.TheaverageenergycapabilityoftheSolomonGulchprojectisestimatedat55millionkwh/year.TheforecastsindicatethattheSolomonGulchpowerwouldbefullyutilizedassoonasitcomeson-line.BythetimeUpperSusitnapowerwouldbeavailable,CVEAtotaldemandswouldexceedSolomonGulchcapabilitybyaround100millionkwh/year.TheCVEAstudypredatedtheplansfortheoilrefineryatValdez,pencethereissubstantiallikelihoodthattheactualrequirementswillexceedthe"forecastamounts.TransmissionPlanAndCostIncrementalservicetotheGlennallen-ValdezmarketareaswouldrequireconstructingtransmissionfacilitiesfromPalmertoGlennallentoconnecttotheCVEAsystemservingthemarketarea.SusitnaprojectgenerationandtransmissiontotheAnchorage-CookInletareawouldbesufficienttoaccomodatetheincrementalservice.ThePalmer-Glennallentransmissionsystemwouldhave136milesofsinglecircuit138-kvline,'withasubstationatPalmerandaswitchyardatGlennallen.ThePalmersubstationwouldhavea230/138-kvtransformer,a230-kvbreaker,anda138-kvcircuitbreaker.TheGlennallenswitch-yardwouldincludetwo138-kvcircuitbreakers,andwouldconnectwiththeplannedCVEA138-kvlineextendingtoValdez.Peakcapacityofthe138-kvPalmer-Glennallenlinewouldlikelybefrom50to80~n~.Thisisanassumptionforstudypurposes(stability,sizing,andpowerflowstudieswerenotmade).Systemcostsarebasedoncomparableelementsofotherprojecttransmissionsystems,indexedfromthe1976report(January1975prices)toOctober1978prices(about32percentincrease).ThebasicpricesarebasedonBureauofReclamation(USBR)andBonnevillePowerAdministration(BPA)withadjustmentsforAlaskaconditions(refertoPartVIII).Advanceplanningwouldanalyzeevaluationsofstructural,operationcontrol,environment,andotherelementsaffectingroutelocation,design,andoperationofthesystemservingthisarea.Investmentcostsarecalculatedbyadding7~percentinterestannuallyduringconstruction.ThePalmer-Glennallenlinewouldbeconstructedduringthesameperiodasotherfacilities,andwouldbereadyforservicewhenprojectpowerisavailablein1994.Table37summarizesconstructionandinvestmentcosts.110 Table34HISTORICDATAGLENNALLEN-VALDEZAREAUpperSusitnaProjectPowerMarketAnalysisUtilityEnergySales(GNH)ResCITotal19702.17.49.919712.67.810.819722•.87.610.819732.98.311.6,19743.710.4'14.519757.716.024.4197610.322.433.5197710.931.042.9UtilityCustomersResCITotal19705462217931971G812269391972655237926197368424796519749113171,26819751,1723611,57619761,6774042,12819771,6974272,183PeakLoad(MW)39.4IndustryIndustry37(38.6installedcapacity)2.42.52.62.74.07.38.69.311.912.813.013.816.828.240.748.7utilityUtility,NetGenerationAPA12/788311,0859049851,5264,6267,8183,918Employment(Avg.Annual)1113,0982,9323,4643,5683,8339,63913,0009,905Population(Total)ResresidentialCICommercial-industrial19701971197219731974197519761977 Table35UTILITYNETGENERATION(GNH)GLENNALLEN-VALDEZAREAUpperSusitnaProjectPowerMarketAnalysisCVEACTPPLITotalGrowth·%19603.20.13.319613.40.13.56.119624.00.14.117.119634.50.14.612.219644.20.14.3-6.519656.50.2.6.755.819668.00.28.222.4·19678.20.38~53.719688.60.49.05.919699.70.40.510.617.8197010.70.4 0.711.811.3197111.70.4 0.712.88.51972ll.80.4 0.712.90.8197312.60.40.713.76.2197416.60.40.717.729.2197526.90.40.728.058.2197639.30.4.0.740.444.3197747.40.40.748.520.1CVEA-CopperValleyElectricAssociationCTP-ChistochinaTradingPostPLI-PaxsonLodge,Inc.APA12/78112 Table36VALDEZ-GLENNALLENAREAUTILITYFORECASTSUpperSusitnaProjectPowerMarketAnalysisEnergy(gwh)PeakDemand(HN)CVEA1/CVEA1:1YearGlennallenValdezTotalGlennallenValdez197612.524.537.040.7Y3.16.0197721.027.0.48.048.7Y4.25.9197822.127.249.34.45.8197924.027.651.64.65.8198045.927.973.87.35.8198148.530.579.07.76.3198250.033.083.08.16.8198352.235.587.78.57.4198455.038.293.29.08.0198557.641.499.09.58.6198660.045.0105.010.19.3198763.148.51l1.610.6 10.1198866.052.5118.511.110.9198969.156.8125.911.711.8199072.361.4133.712.412.8199175.066.4141.413.013.81995180200024020251,0251:1CopperValleyElectricAssociationForecastfrom1976REAPowerRequirementsStudy.yHistoricalvalues113 annualOM&Rcostisestimatedat$131,000peryear.ThisisindicatedForpurposeofthisanalysisweareassumingtheincrementalO&Mcostswouldberoughlyequivalentto1/3oftheannualcostofonetransmission$40,800$2,900$37,900$3,880920$1,5403105,49025,760$33,100$4,800ConstructionInterestInvestmentDuringConstruction(Costs-$l,OOO10/78)Table37INVEST~ffiNTCOSTSU~~RYGLENNALLEN-VALDEZAREATP~NSMISSIONSYSTEMUpperSusitnaProjectPowerMarketAnalysisOperationandMaintenanceCosts114TransmissionLine(palmer-Glennallen)ClearingRight-of-WayAccessRoadsLineStructuresSubtotalonTable38.Additionofthe136-milePalmer-Glennallentransmissionlinewouldinvolvecomparativelyminorincreasesinoverallsystemoperation,TotalSwitchyards&SubstationsPalmerSubstationGlennallenSwitchyardSubtotallinemaintenancecrew.Addinganallowanceforreplacements,themaintenance,andreplacementcosts. UpperSusitnaProjectPowerMarketAnalysisTable38OPERATION,MAINTENANCE,ANDREPLACEMENTCOSTSUMMARYGLENNALLEN-VALDEZAREATRANSMISSIONSYSTEMAnnualCost-$1,000FullCrew1/3Crew802.618.415.818131103.382.7227.328093.36020340113.3113240Subtotal-ReplacementTotalOM&RusRoundedSubto.tal-O&MRoundedSubstations&Switchyards0.0033x$4,800,000ReplacementTransmissiontowers,fixtures,conductors0.0001x$25,766,000Equipment(Replacement)MarketingandAdministrationSubtotalMiscellaneousTelephone,travel,supplies,servicestraining,linespray,campmaintenanceContingencies20%+OperationandMaintenancePersonnelSalary&allowancesfor6WageGrades 116AssessmentofFeasibilityAPAconcludesthatthePalmer-Glennallenintertiehasagoodchanceforfeasibility,andthatamoredetailedexaminationiswarranted.$3,140,000131,000$3,271,000AmortizationOM&RTotalAnnualCostAminimumintertiebetweenPalmerandGlennallenwouldinvolveincrementalinvestmentcostsontheorderof$40.8million.Incrementalannualcostsareestimatedas:Fullutilizationoftheintertiecouldinvolvetransmissionof200to300·millionkwh/year,inwhichcase,averagetransmissioncostwoulddropfromone-halftoone-thirdthecostindicatedabove.BasedontheutilityforecastforCVEA,itispossiblethatamarketinexcessof100millionkwh/yearcouldbesuppliedoverthePalmer-Glennallenline.Thiswouldequatetotransmissioncostsof3.3¢/kwh.Regardlessofthesourceofpower--coal,oil,hydro--generationcostsforCVEAwilllikelybehigherthanforthelargerutilitysystemsservingtheAnchorage-CookInletarea.Inthiscontext,transmissioncostsontheorderof1.1to3.3¢/kwhbetweenPalmerandGlennallenmaybejustifiable.The'100millionkwh/yearwouldbeequivalentto22.8MWat50percentannualloadfactor.Thisissubstantiallylessthanhalftheestimatedcapacityfora138-kvPalmer-Glennallenline. e.MunicipalLightandPowerCompany,Anchorage,Alaska,March1,1979.b.BattellePacificNorthwestLaboratories,Richland,Washington,February27,1979.1.LetterdatedJanuary3,1979toCol.G.R.Robertson,AlaskaDistrictCorpsofEngineers,-transmittingresponsestoOMBquestionsfallinginAPA'sareaofresponsibility.1979.TheAlaskaStateClearinghouse,Juneau,Alaska,March117d.c.CorpsofEngineers,Anchorage,Alaska,March19,1979.APPENDIX2.PreviousStudiesandBibliography.3.LOAD/RESOURCE.~SYSTEMCOSTANALYSISFORTHERAILBELTREGIONOFALASKA:1978-2010--InformalReport-byBattellePacificNorthwestLaboratories,Richland,Washington-January,1979.4.Comments.a.FederalEnergyRegulatoryCommission,SanFrancisco,California,March6,1979~ DonaldL.ShiraChief,PlanningDivisionCopiesoftheseresponsesweresentviaGoldstreakdirecttoCaptainMohnDecember28,1978.AttachedareourresponsestotheSusitnaProjecto~mquestionsweagreedtoprovide(re:ourlettersdatedJanuary20,24,1978).January3,1979Sincerely,DearColonelRobertson:ColonelGeorgeR.RobertsonAlaskaDistrictEngineerCorpsofEngineersP.O.Box7002Anchorage,AK99510DeoartmentOfEnergy•AlaskaPowerAdministrationP.O.Box50.Juneau,Alaska99802 1OMBquestion5.1,and.2.or'illaskedthattheanalysisofthe"without"projectconditionbeexpandedtoclearlyanalyze:1.Why,withnaturalgasprojectedtobeinsuchshortsupply,theAnchorageutilitieshaveonlycontractedfor55percentofprovedreservesor25percentofestimatedultimatereserves,and,2.ThesensitivityoftheanalysistothecollapseofOPECandthecostofshippingoiltotheEastCoast.Bothquestionsmustbeconsideredintermsofnationalenergypolicy_TheNationneedstoreducedependencyonoili~portsonbothashort-termandalong-termbasis,andtoaccomplishamajorshiftawayfromoilandnaturalgastoalternativeenergysources.Thereasonsforthisincludenationaleconomicconsiderations,aswellasveryreal.limitsOnnationalandworldsuppliesofoilandnaturalgas.Intermsofnationalenergypolicy,oilandnaturalgasarenotavailablealternativesforlo?g-termproductionofelectricpower.Thereare.remainingquestionsastohowquicklyey.ist~nguseswillbephasedoutandonhowcompletetheprohibitionswillbeonnewoil.andnaturalgas-firedpowerplants.ThereisgeneralagreementthatimplementationofnationalpOlicymustincludestr~ngeffortsinconservation,substantialincreaseinuseofcoal,andmajoreffortstodeveloprenewableenergysources.Eachofthesecomponentsissensitivetoenergypriceandsnpplyvariables.Areductioninworldoilpricesor·aperiodofoversupplyservesasamarketplacedisincentiveforconservationeffortsand\Yorkonalterna-tiveenergysources.ThelowestcostalternativesandthosewithfullyproventechnologyaretheleastsensitiveithosethatdependonfurtherR&Daremosteasilysidetracked.Tho:SusitnaProjectinvolveslu.rgeblocksofpmverandne,venergyfromarene\vablesource,fullyproventechnology1longrevenue-proQuei.ngperiOd(inexcessof100years),andessentialfreedomfromlong-termpriceincreases.Itsunitcostsappearattractiveincomparisontocoal-firedpm·;erplants.Itisatwo-stageproject,·,ithopportunitytodeferthesecondstageifdemandsare10\'lcrthanpresentestimatesorifpricerelationshipscha.nge.Theabovefactorssuggestthatt.heUpperSusitnaProjectismuchlesssensitivetoshort-termoilpriceandsupplyvariationsthanJOosto·therU.S.energyoptions. 2Ifi ti~;clSSUl:lcc1th<:ltAIClskanoilandnatm:a.lgaswillheisolatedfro:nU.S.and\·:or1ddemandand1)):5.<.:3.ng,]\)aska\·Joulc1prohablycontinuetouscitsoilZlndgasfor.1005tofitspO'.vcr.'rhi:;M;:;umptiondid,infact.,prevailh(~t\-Jecntheinitialoilandgasdh;cover.iesintheCookInletareaandthe1973oilcmba.rgo.In1960,thel,nchorage-CookInleta.l:eapmversuppliescmnealmostentirelyfromco<:11andhydro.'l'he1m1cost,clbundant:gasbroughtahalttohydrodevclop;nent:anddestroyedtheareat5coalindustry.'1'heoneremaini.ngAlaskancoalminebarelymadeitthroughthe1960'sbecauseofcompetitionfromrelativelycheapoil.TheCoo]~InletgashasbeenSUbjectedtoincreasingcompetitionin"thelastfewyears,includingproposalsforLNGfacilities,additionalpetrochemicalplants,~ndconsiderationofpipelinealternativestotiein,viththeAlcanpipelineprojeeLTnecompetitionresultedinincreas-ingpricesandincreasingdifficultyin6btaininglong-termcownitmentso~gasforpower.Thecompetitionsandthepriceincreasesarcexpectedtocontinue.Therealquestionongasavailabilityasitpertai;stoUpperSusitna·is:\~1atistheoutlookforlong-termgassuppliesforpowerafter1990?Thatoutlookisnotgoodintermsofcompetingusesandnationalpolicy•." 3ResponsetoQr.1Bquestion5.3."TheNecessityforanAnchorage-Fairbanksinter-tieatacostof$200-]00million"Theestimatedconstructioncost(1978dollars)forthetransmissionlinesfromtheSusitnaProjecttotheFairbanksareais$152million,and$186millionforthelinesfromtheprojecttotheAnchoragearea(total$338million)•Thereareseveralpreviousstudies!!thatdemonstrateinherentfeasibilityofanAnchorage-FairbanksintertiewithorwithoutconstructionoftheUpperSus~tnaProject.ThemainreasonthattheintertieisnotnowinplaceisthatshorttermbenefitstotheAnchorageareaarequitesmall,i.e.,mostoftheshorttermbenefitsfortheintertiewouldoccurthroughreducedenergyaridpowercostsintheFairbanksarea.APAstudiesinthe1975feasibilityreportevaluatedSusitnaProjectpowertoFairbanksonacost-of-servicebasis(seeAppendixI,p.6-89).ThiswasaspecificdemonstrationoffeasibilityofincludingF~irbanksaspartoftheUpperSusitnaPowerMarketarea.1/Amongthepreviousstudiesare:AlaskaPowerSurvey,FederalPowerCommission,1969.Central.AlaskaPowerPool,workingpaper,AlaskaPowerAdministration,October1969.AlaskaRailbeltTransmissionSystem,workingpaper,AlaskaPowerAdmin-istration,December1967.ElectricGenerationandTransmissionIntertieSystemforInteriorandSouthcentralAlaska,CH2MHill,1972.CentralAlaskaPowerStudy,TheRalphM.ParsonsCompany,undated.AlaskaPmverFeasibilityStudy,TheRalphM.Parso"sCompany,1962. 4PowerCostsforAnchorageandFairbanks(0%Inflation)(¢/Kv-lli)Allfuturegeneratingcapacityassumedtobecoal-firedsteamturbineswithintertie.Allfuturegeneratingcapacityassumedtobecoal-firedsteamturbineswithoutintertie.FuturegeneratingcapacitytoincludeUpperSusitnaProjectpluscoal-firedsteamplantsasneeded.Includesintertie.Case1Case2Case3WithoutIntertie\vithIntertiewithSusitnaandAnchorageFairbanksAnchorageFairbanksAnchorageFairbanksHigh6.28.86.18.05.86.2Med6.68.96.28.45.56.7Lm-l7.19.26.28.86.17.8Thefollowingtablepresentsacomparisonofthecostsofpowerintheyear2000forCase2,and3ascomparedtoCase1.AsshownthecostsofpowerarereducedbelowthecostofpowerforCase1inallcases.ThereductioninthecostofpoweristypicallygreaterintheResultsofpowercostanalysesforAnchorageandFairbanksfortheyear2000,withandwithoutintertieareasfollows:Case3.Case2.Case1.Furtherverificationoffeasibilityoftheintertieisprovidedinthenewload-resourceanalysesandsystemcostanalysespreparedforthecurrentstudies.Thesegeneralcaseswereanalyzed: 5ComparisonofPowerCostsforYear2000\PercentChangeinCostofPowerBelowCase1 -0%Inflation'-1.4-14.1Total-7.9-28.1Fairbanks-0.4-10.7AnchorageCase3AnchorageFairbanksHighMediumLowHighMediumLmqCase2-1.6-6.5-14.5 -10.0-6.0-4.5Case3-6.9-20.0-16.4-41.9-32.8 -17.9Case2Table1showsthefollowingpercentsavingsinsystemcosts(1990-2011)forCases2and3comparedtoCase1:.Table1comparesannualsystemcostsforallthreecasesforAnchorageandFairbanksduringthe1990-2011period.Fairbanks-TananaValleyareathanintheAnchorage-CookInletareabecausetheAnchorage-CookInletareawillhaveahigherpercent,ofitsgenerationsuppliedbysteamplantswhicharemorecostlythanSusitna. Table 1.Annual Power System Costs for Power Supply Under Cases I,II,and III -Mid-Range Load Projections -0%Inflation ($Million) Period Case I Case II Case III 1\ncl10J:~ge ..Fairbanks __Anchorage Fairbanks Anchorage Fairbanks 1980-90 272.0 90.6 254.5 84.2 254.5 84.2 90-91 274.2 96.8 293.8 89.0 293.8 89.0 .91-92 324.2 98.2 343.8 90.2 343.8 90.2 92-93 387.5 119.5 409.9 88.2 409.9 88.2 93-94 391.7 120.9 414.1 89.2 414.1 89.2 94-95 398.9 122.2 421.3 114.9 537.5 120.5 95-96 463.7 127.6 486.1 143.7 537.9 124.8 96-97 549.0 152.4 571.5 143.2 543.0 124.0 97-98 615.9 167.8 578.7 158.5 549.3 139.2 98-99 627.7 192.0 650.2 182.6 576.3 145.1 1999-2000 694.4 193.8 2 .5 577.2 .145.7 Sub total 4,999.4 1,481.8 5,081.1 1,368.2 5,037.3 1,240.1 00-01 691.8 194.9 714.3 185.5 573.4 146.5 01-02 698.6 196.2 721.1 186.8 578.5 147.4 02-03 760.3 195.0 723.1 208.2 658.6 168.6 03-04 767.9 230.8 789.8 209.6 665.1 169.6 04-05 776.0 232.2 798.5 211.0 670.8 170.6 05-06 864.0 232.1 807.1 210.9 677 .6 170.2 06-07 872.8 233.5 815.9 212.3 744.4 171.2 07-08 881.9 235.1 904.4 213.8 751.6'172.3 08-09 891.1 236.5 913.6 215.2 759.0 173.4 09-10 901.6 238.1 923.1 216.9 766.7 174.6 10-11 969.9 239.6 932.7 218.4 834.3 175.7 Total 14,075.1 3,945.8 14,124.7 3,656.9 12,717.3 3,080.2 / (j\ 7ResponsetoOMBquestion5.4."Schedulingofpo~.,erplantsandthereducedriskofbuildingsmallincrements."TheLoad/Resourceanalysisforwithoutprojectconditionaddresses,theschedulingofsteamplantsandsizeofunitsneeded.ThisisdemonstratedinChapterVIrofthemarketabilityreport.AnnualpowersystemcostsShO\VDinTable1underquestion5.3showsavingsfromSusitnaoverthewithoutSusitnacase.ThesteamplantsaresmallerunitsthanSusitna,buttheirhighercostcontributestohigheroverallsystemcosts.Ananalysisofhydroalternativesinqicatethattherearenoteconomicalsitesavailableinsufficientquantitytobecompar9bletoSusitna.ThisissupportedbyAPA'sdraftreporton"AnalysisofPotentialAlternativeHydroelectricSitestoServeRailbeltArea." 8ResponsetoOMBquestion6.1,.2,and.3.DemandEstimatesTheanalysisofloadgrowthshouldbemorespecificwithrespectto:1.Increasingusebyconsumers;and,2.Increasingnumberofconsumers.3.Industrialgrot-1th,i.e.,Tt1heredoesAlaska'scomparative/~advantagelieoutsidetheareaofrawmaterialsandgovernmentfunctions?Thenewestimatesoffuturepowerdemandareresponsivetothefirsttwopartsofthisquestion.APAcompletedaverycarefulanalysisofrecentpowerusetrendsbyclassofcustomer,withparticularemphasison~dentifyingrecenttrendsthatcouldbeattributed~oconservationefforts.ThefuturedemandsarebasedonfuturepopulationestimatesdevelopedbytheUniversityofAlaska'sInstituteofSocialandEconomicResearchandincorporateassumptionsofsubstantiallyimprovedefficiencyinuseofelectricpowerthroughconservation.ThethirdpartofthequestionrequiresconsiderationoftheoverallAlaskaneconomy,presentandfuture,andtheroleofUpperSusitnapower.AlaskaisnotaheavilyindustrializedStatenorisitexpectedtobe.4Theoilandgasindustryispresentlythedominatingsectorofthestate'sGNP,andwillcontinuetobesoforatleastthebalanceofthe20thcentury.ThisistheprinciplesourceofrevenuesfortheStateandthusthedrivingforcebehindStateprogramsforeducation,localgovernmentassistance,welfare,andsoon.Otherimportantindustriesarethefisheries,forestproducts,andrecreation-tourism.Thelow-andmid-rangepopulationestimat~sincorporateverymodestassumptionsofindustrialexpansionbasedonpioneeringofAlaskannaturalresourcesforthemostpart.Thespecificindustrialassumptionsreflectprovensourcesofnaturalresourcesandprojectsthatarev7ellalongintheplanningstages. 9Extractionandprocessingofnaturalresources...,illundoubtedlycontinuetobemajoraspectsoftheAlaskaneconomy.OtherimportantaspectsincludebusinessactivitiesofNativeCorporationsandincreasingamountsoflandmadeavailabletoStateandprivateo"mership.ActionspendingonthenewNationalParks,Refuges,andwildandScenicRiverswillencouragefurtherdevelop~entoftherecreationandtourismindustries.Asinmostpartsofthecountry,Alaskaemploymentisnotdominatedby../,,-theindustrialsectors.Mostjobsareinserviceindustries,thecommer-cialestablishments,transportation,utilities,andgovernment.ThenewpopulationestimatebyISERindicatesthatthedistributionofemploymentwillnotchangesUbstantially.Theanticipatedgrowthintheeconomy,employment,andinpowerdemandsisprimarilyinthenon-industrialsectors.ItshouldbenotedthattheRailbeltareademandsforelectricenergyin1977were2.7billionkilowatt-hours,whichisapproachingthefirmenergycapabilityoftheWatanaProject.TheloadresourceanalysesdemonstratefullutilizationofWatanaenergyessentiallyassoonasitbecomesavailable,evenunderthelowerpowerdemandcase.ThisbasicallyleadsustoafindingthattheUpperSusitnajustificationisnotdependentonmajorindustrialexpansioninAlaska. 10ResponsetoOt>mQuestion7.UnderthetopicSensitivityAnalysis,OMBprovidedthefollm'1ingcomments:"Povlerdemandshouldbesubjectedtoasensitivityanalysistobetterassesstheuncertaintiesindevelopmentofsuchalargeblockofpower.Thetypicalutilityinvestsonthebasisofan8-10yeartimehorizon.TheSusitnaplanhasan11-16yearhorizoninfaceofrisksthatloadsmaynotdevelopandtheoptionofvlheelingpOt'lertoothermarketsisnotavailable.Itshouldbenotedthatthepo#erdemandforSnettishamwasundulyoptimisticwhenitwasbuilt.Thisresultedindelaysininstallinggenerators.AsimilarerrorinaprojectthesizeofSusitnawouldbemuchmorecostlyandwould.haveamajoradverseeffectontheproject'seconomics./IThenewpowerdemandestimates,loadresourcesanalyses,andfinancialanalysispresentedinthisreport,allprovideabetterbasisforexaminingthesequestions.Inaddition,thereisneedtoreviewsomeoftheSnettishamProjecthistorytobringoutsimilaritiesanddifferenceswiththeUpperSusitnacase.snettishamReviewTheSnettishamHydroelectricProjectislocatednearJuneau,Alaska,andisnowthemainsourceofpowerforthegreaterJuneauarea.Theprojectwasauthorizedin1962onthebasisoffeasibilityinvestigationsbythe.BureauofReclamation,constructedbytheCorpsofEngineers,andopera-tedbytheAlaskaPowerAdministration.Theprojectwasconceivedasaxwo-stagedevelopmentandconstructionofthefirst,orLongLake,stagewascompletedinlate1973withfirstcommercialpowertoJuneauinDecember1973.Thesecond,orCraterLake,stagewouldbeaddedwhenpowerdemandsdictate. 11Juneauwas,andis,anisolatedpowermarketarea.Difficultterrainandlongdistanceshavethusfarpr~ventedelectricalinterconnectionwithotherSoutheastAlaskacommunitiesandneighboringareasofCanada;however,suchinterconnectionsmayprovefeasiblewithinthenext15to20years.Theprojectplanningandjustificationwas'premised~nser-viceonlytothegreaterJuneauarea.TheSnettishamauthorizationwasbasedonpowerdemandestimatesbytheAlaskaDistrict,BureauofReclamation(nowAlaskaPOvlerAdministration).1/Theestimateswerebasedonactualpowerusethrough1960andprojec-tionstotheyear1987.Theoutlookatthattimewasthatthefirststageconstructionwouldbecompletedin1966,andthattotalprojectcapabilitywouldnotbeneededuntil1987.Acomparisonofpowerdemandestimatesatthetimeofauthorizationwithactualdemandsissho\VDonTable1.The1977energyloadwas112,197megawatt-hoursor81percentoftheamountestimatedin1961basedonhistoricalrecordsthrough1960.1/~ra;saloftheCrater-LongLakesDivision,SnettishamProject,Alaska,USBR,November1961. Table1PowerandEnergyRequirements-JuneauAreaFromReappraisaloftheCrater-LongLakesDivision,SnettishamProject,Alaska,USER,November1961.195823,9454,788,195926,2975,321196028,4995,465197058,26612,42073,40015,230197163,78613,78080,70016,750197270,22514,91088,80018,430197375,75315,47097,50020,240197483,05916,220106,90022,190197594,60917,840116,90024,2601976106,29619,800127,60026,4801977112,19720,440139,10028,87012Peak111'1l1NHForecastedDemandsatTimeofAuthorization11PeakHivl1i'1HActualDemands(Oct.1 -sept.30)FiscalYear 13Theinherentflexibilityofastagedprojectprovedtobeverybenefi-cialinthecaseofSnettisham.APAmadeperiodicupdatesofthepowerdemandestimatesduringconstructionoftheLongLakestage.Forseveralyears,theseforecastsindicatedaneedtoproceedwiththeCraterLakestageconstructionimmediatelyoncompletionoftheLongLakestage.TheCorpsofEngineersconstructionschedulesandbudgetrequests,basedontheAPApowerdemandestimates,anticipatedstartofconstructiononCraterLakeinFY1977.Majorfactorsinthesefore-castswereplansforamajornewpulpmillintheJuneauareaandforironoreminingandreductionfacilityinthevicinityofPortsnettisham.Neitherofthesedevelopments,,,ereantic;ipatedatthetimeofauthoriza-tion.Bothoftheseresourcedevelopmentsfellthrough,andthisresultedinasubstantialreductionintheAPApowerdemandestimateandadecisioninlate1975todefertheCraterLakeconstructionstart.Thepulpmi~lwasparticularlyinfluentialinthechangeindemandestimates.Themillwasplannedforoperationintheearly1970·swithalargepopulationandcommercialimpactonJuneau.InitialaccessfacilitieswereconstructedandsitepreparationwaswellunderwaywhentheprojectbecameentangledinprotractedlawsuitsinvolvingloggingpracticesinSoutheastAlaska.SeveralcourtdecisionsweremadeinfavorofthedeveIopment,butalastminuteremandputtheprojectbacktobaseoneandledtocancellationinearly1975.Thistypeofuncertaintyfacesallutilityplanners.ThestagedprojectlikeSnettishamaffordsagreatdealofcapabilitytoadjusttocha~gesindemand.ManyotherfactorsinfluencedJuneauareapowerdemandsandutilizationofprojectpower.OfparticularconcernatthemomentisimpactofAlaska'scapitalmoveinitiative.Thiswouldcertainlychangeuseofprojectpower,vliththemostlikelyoutcomethatthecommunitywouldmovemorequicklyintoanall-electricmode(spaceheatingandelectricvehiclesappearparticularlyattractiveinthisarea)andindustrialuseofpowerwouldincreasethrougheconomicdiversification. ImplicationsforSusitna4.Thexlexibilityofstagedprojectswasactuallyused.14oftheSnettishamrevie\'lare:keyTheSusitnaProjectissimilarinthatprojectinvestmentiskeyedtotwomajorstages.ThecommitmentofconstructionfundsforWatana\'louldbeneededin1986or1987tohavepoweronlineby1993or1994.Ifconditionsin1986indicateneedtodefertheproject,itshouldbedeferred.Similarly,startofactualconstructiononDevilCanyoncan3.TheactualuseofprojectpowerW4Yturnouttobesubstantiallydifferentthanoriginallyanticipated.2.Theloadforecastsused·asabasisforauthorizationwerereasonablyaccurate.5.Theoutlookforfinancialviabilityappearsexcellentatthistimeinhistory.Itappearsappropriatetorequirea20-yearplanninghorizonwithcarefulchecksateachstepintheprocessandbusiness-likedecisionstoshiftconstructionschedulesifconditions(demands)change.WebelievetheSnettishamexperienceisverypositiveinthislight.1.Theproject\-lasplannedandauthorizedwithintenttohand10growthinareapowerrequirementsfora20-yearperiod.First,thenormforutilityinvestmentscannotremainasthebqsisofan8to10.yeartimehorizon.Thisisevidencedbyexperiencessinceabout1970ontimerequiredtoplan,obtainnecessarypermitsorauthorizations,findfinancing,andthenbuildnewpowerplantsandmajortransmissionfacilities.The8to10yearsismuchtooshortfornuclear,coal,andhydroplantsandformajortransmissionlines. 15andshouldbebasedonconditionstl1atactuallyprevailatthetime.thedecisionismade.ThelevelofuncertaintyforUpperSusitnaisgreaterthanwasthecaseforSnettishamoncountsofhigherinterestcostsandlargertotalinvestment.Sensitivityto~hangeindemandsismuchlessforSusitnabecauseofitslargeanddiversifiedpowermarketarea.Therearew3nymorewaysthatSusitnaProjectpowercouldbeeffectivelyutilizedintheeventthattraditionalutilitypowermarketsaresmallerthananticipatedatthepresent•.UpperSusitna"doesnothaveasmanyuncertainitiesintermsofenviron-mentalquestionsaswouldequivalentpowersuppliesfromcoalornuclearplants.UncertaintiesonairqualityareparticularlyrelevantforanylargerAlaskancoal-firedpowerplants. 16CurrentEvaluationPowerdemandswereestimatedforHigh,Medium,andLowcasestoyear2025assuminglogicalvariationsinpopulationandenergyusepercapita..Theprojectionsreflectenergyusepercapitabasedondetailedstudiesof1970-1977datafromboththeAnchorageandFairbanksareas.Theprojectionsconsideredvariationsinpercapitauserangingfromincreaseduseofelectricityinthehometoanticipatedeffectsofconservationondecr~asingthegrowthrates.AdetaileddiscussionofthedevelopmentofthepowerdemandsisincludedinChapter5ofthisreport.Theload/resourceandcostanalysisprovidedsystemcostforcomparisonofcasesbothwithandwithouttheSusitnaPr?ject.Theanalysisalsocomparedthepowerdemandstotheresourcesrequiredtodeterminesizesandtimingofnewplants(theload/resourceanalysisissummarizedinChapterVII).Table2summarizestheresourcesneededduringthe1990'sfortherangeofprojections.TheTableindicatesthatevenunderthemostconservativeloadgrowthcondition(low),1,500MWareneededtomeetthecombinedAnchorage-Fairbanksdemands,whichisroughlythecapabilityofSusitna.Tables3and4showthepowercostsforAnchorageandFairbanksduringthe1990'swithaninterconnectionandwithandwithouttheSusitnaProject.ItisreadilyapparenttheratesarelessforthecasewithSusitna.Forexample,inthemediumcasefortheyear2000,Anchoragecostsare5.5¢/kwhor13percentlessthanwithoutSusitna.IntheFairbankscosts,thedifferenceismuchlarger,6.7¢/kwhor25percentlessthanwithoutSusitna.InTable5,annualsysteminterestcostsarecomposedwithandwithoutSusitnawithintertiefrom1990to2011.Examinationofthesystemcost'onanannualbasisrevealsthecasewithSusitnaischeaperthanthewithoutSusitnacaseforeachyearexceptthefirstfewyearsafterWatanacomesonline. *InterconnectionInstalledin1987forhighcase,1990formediancase,&1995forlowcase.Rcpla:cementofmilitarypowerplants,manyofwhichalsosupplyheatforbuildingsareadditionalbutnotshownhere.AnchorageFairbanksPeriodHighMedianLowHighHedianLow·89-90400*200*10090-9120091-9240020092-9340020020093-9440010094-95*100*95-96400 40020010010096-97400 40020010010097-9840040020010010098-99400 40010099-00400Caseswith"InterconnectionwithoutUpperSusitna17300400700"1200ScheduleofPlantAdditions-!~~2000'l'able2.3200TOTAL90-2000 TABLE3.POI.'lerCostsforAnchorageandFairbanksAreasWithInterconnectionandWithoutUpperSusitna-0%Inflation(cents/kwh)AnchorageFairbanksPeriodHighMedianLowHighHedianLow89-905.74.54.24.75.85.690-91.5.44.84.14.65.95.89;1..-925.75.34.14.45.75.892-935.45.94.76.35.45.693-945.75.64.67.35.25.594-955.5 5.44.97.06.56.795-965.6 5.85.47.87.76.996-975.86.45.88.27.48.397-985.96.16.68.77.89.198-996.06.56.48.38.78.999-006.16.26.2.8.08.48.818 TABLE4.POT,verCostsforAnchorageandFairbanksAreasWithInterconnectionandWithUpperSusitnaComingonLinein1994-0%Inflation(cents/kwh)AnchorageFairbanksPeriodHighMedianLmvHighMedianLO\-l89-905.74.5 4.24.75.85.690-915.44.84.14.65.9 5.891-925.75.34.64.45.77.292-935.45.94.46.35.46.993-945.75.65.07.35.26.894-956.46.97.37.9 6.88.895-966.06.5 6.87.76.78.996-976.2 6.16.57.26.48.697-986.25.86.36.66.97.898-996.15.86.16.56.9'7~699-005.85.56.16.26.77.819 20TABLE5.PowerSystemAnnualCostsforAnchorageandFairbanksWithUpperSusitnaComingOnLinein1994-0%Inflation(million$)AnchorageFairbanksPeriodHighHedianLowHighMedianLow89-90508.5254.5173.485.284.263.4.90-91514.1293.8175.089.0 89.068.591-92591.8343.8206.090.290.287.492-93597.3409.9205.0137.888.285.593-94666.0414.1244.5166.889.286.494-95798.5537.5372.3192.2120.5115.695-96806.1537.9368.4198:0124.8119.296-97898.6543.0368.5198.5124.0117.597-98793.1549.3369.9192.5139.2 109.298-991,009.1576.3376.1201.3145.1109.799-001,018.9577.2391.7203.5145.7114.900-011,025.1573.4381.4228.6146.5114.501-021,101.3578.5380.3254.0147.4114.502-031,172.1658.6375.3254.3168.6111.903-041,190.4665.1376.6291.6169.6112.004-051,287.7670.8376.8296.0170.6112.105-061,366.8677.6378.0296.1170.2nO.7·06-071,386.8744.4379.4299.2171.2110.807-081,467.2751.6380.8302.4.172.3110.908-091,548.1759.0382.2305.7173.4111.109-101,569.9766.7383.7343.5174.6111.210-111,671.6834.3385.2347.0175.7111.4Total22,989.012,717.37,430.54,973.43,080.22,308.4 I(coni;inued)TABLE5.PowerSystemAnnualCostsforAnchorageandFairbanksWithoutUpperSusitnaComing.OnLinein.1994-0%Inflation(million$)AnchorageFairbanksPeriodHighMedianLowHighMedianLow89-90508.5254.5173.485.284.263.490-91514.1293.8175.089.089.068.591-92591.8343.8185.790.290.271.192-93597.3409.9223.3137.888.269.293-94666.0414.1227.2166.889.270.194-95678.0421.3252.4169.1;1114.987.295-96750.0486.1290.9201.3143.791.896-97843.4571.5327.9224.8143.2113.197-98918.8578.7389.8253.4158.5127.698-99998.3650.2396.7256.3182.6 128.499-001,074.0657.2397.9259.7184.5.129.300-011,160.8714.3470.6262.3185.5129.601-021,238.6721.1472.5265.3186.8130.202-031,310.9723.1469.8265.8208.2128.303-041,331.0789.8472.8303.5209.6128.804-051,350.7798.5474.8341.2211.0129.305-061,431.7807~1477.8343.1210.9128.406-071,513.3815.9480.9346.5212.3151.707-081,615.1904.4484.0350.1213.8152.208-091,638.1913.6487.1353.7215.3152.809-101,721.4923.1490.3357.5216.9153.310-'-111,80L7932.7493.6361.4218.4153.9Total24,253.514,124.78,314.45,484.33,656.92,558.2 22Itshouldbenoted-thatinthelo\',energyuseestimatethetotalsystemcostforAnchorageduringthisperiodamountsto$883.9r.illionlesswithSusitnathanwithouttheproject..Thedifferenceisevenlargerinthemediumandhighcases.ThecombinedAnchorage-Fairbankscashsavingsforthesameperiodbasedonthemediumpoweruseestimateisalmost'$2Billion PreviousStudiesThere,,,asafairlysubstantialbacklogofpowersystemandprojectstudiesrelevanttothe1976evaluationoftheUpperSusitnaRiverProject.Thepreviousstudiesmostrelevantinclude:1.AdvisoryCommitteestudiescompletedin1974fortheFederalPowerCommissionIs(FPC)1976AlaskaPowerSurvey.Thestudiesincludeevaluationofexistingpowersystemsandfutureneedsthroughtheyear2000,andthemaingenerationandtransmissionalternativesavailabletomeettheneeds.ThepOvlerrequirement·studiesandalternativegenerationsystemstudiesforthe1976powersurveywereusedextensively.2.AseriesofutilitysystemstudiesforRailbeltareautilitiesincludeassessmentsofloads,pO\-lercosts,andgenerationandtrans-missionalternatives.3.Previous,yorkbytheAlaskaPowerAdministration,theBureauofReclamation,theutilitysystems,andindustryonstudiesofvariousplansforRailbelttransmissioninterconnectionsandtheUpperSusitnahydroelectricpotential.Itshouldbenotedthatmanyofthestudieslistedinthebibliographyrepresentaperiodinhistorywhentherewasverylittleconcernaboutenergyconservation,growth,andneedsforconservingoilandnaturalgasresources.'Similarly,manyofthesestudiesreflectedanticipationoflongterm,verylowcostenergysupplies.Inthisregard,thestudiesforthe1976powersurveyareconsideredparticularlysignificantinthattheyprovideafirstassessmentofAlaskapowersystemneedsreflectingthecurrentconcernsforenergyandfuelsconservationandtheenvironment,andtherapidlyincreasingcostsofenergyintheeconomy.Thelatterconcernforconservation,etc.hasbeencarriedevenfurtherinthisreport.AsyetunpublishedstudiesbytheAlaskaPm"erAdmini-strationhavemadeadefinitereflectionofconservationassumptions.Theresultingloadforecastswereusedinload/resourceanalysesdoneandreportedbyBattellePacificNorthv7estLaboratoriesin1978and1979.(Battellealsopublishedareportin1978entitledAlaskaElectricPower,andAnalysisofFutureRequirementsandSupplyAlternativesfortheRailbeltRegiOn.)Populationandemploymentusedintherecent~recastswereprojectedandreportedbytheInstituteofSocialandEconomicResearchinSeptember1978.TheresultoftheireconometricmodelisentitledSouthCentralAlaska'sEconomyandPopulation,1965-2025:ABaseStudyandProjection.Apartialbibliographyofrelatedstudiesincludingthoseofthe1976Susitnareport,isappended. 25PARTIALBIBLIOGRAPHYOFRELATEDSTUDIESThe1976AlaskaPowerSurvey,FederalPowerCommissionVol.IandVol.II.AlaskaRegionalEnergyResourcesPlantProject-PhaseI,AlaskaDivisionofEnergyandPowerDevelopment,DepartmentofCommerce.andEconomicDevelopment,October1977.VolumeI -Alaska'sEnergyResources,FindingsandAnalysisVolumeII-Alaska'sEnergyResources,InventoryofOil,Gas,Coal,Hydroelectric,andUraniumResourcesJobsandPowerForAlaskans:AProgramforPowerandEconomicDevelop-ment,July1978.DepartmentofCommerceandEconomicDevelopment.Appendix:PowerandEconomicDevelopmentProgram,July1978.AlaskaElectricPowerStatistics1960-1976,AlaskaPowerAdministration,July1977.TheProposedGlennallen-ValdezTransmissionLine.AnAnalysisofAvailableAlternatives.RobertW.RetherfordAssociates,May1978.PowerRequirementsStudy,MatanuskaElectricAssociation,Inc.RuralElectrificationAdministration,May1978. 26InterimFeasibilityReport.HydroelectricPowerandRelatedPurposes,CorpsofEngineers,December1975.AppendixI,PartI:(A)Hydrology,(B)ProjectDescriptionandCostEstimates,(C)PowerStudiesandEconomics,(D)FoundationandMaterials,(E)EnvironmentalAssessment,(F)RecreationalAssessmentAppendixI,PartII:(G)MarketabilityAnalysis,(H)Trans-missionSystem,(1)EnvironmentalAssessmentforTransmissionSystemsAppendixII:PertinentCorrespondenceandReportsofOtherAgencies.AHydrologicReconnaissanceoftheSusitnaRiverBelowDevilsCanyon.Environaid,October1974.SolomonGulchHydroelectricProject.DefiniteProjectReport.RobertW.RetherfordAssociates,March1975.ElectricPowerinAlaska,1976-1995.InstituteofSocialandEconomicResearch,UniversityofAlaska,August1976.SouthcentralAlaska'sEconomyandPopulation,1965-2025:ABaseStudyandProjection.ReportoftheEconomicTaskForce,SouthcentralAlaskaWaterResourcesStudy(LevelB).InstituteofSocialandEconomicResearch,UniversityofAlaska,September1978(DraftReport). 27InteriorAlaskaEnergyAnalysisTeamReport.FairbanksIndustrialDevelopmentCorporationforDivisionofEnergyandPowerDevelopment,June1977.NaturalGasDemandandSupplytotheYear2000intheCookInletBasinofSouthcentralAlaska.SRIInternationalforPacificAlaskaLNGCompany,November1977.Load/ResourceandSystemCos~AnalysisfortheRailbeltRegionofAlaska;1978-2010.BattellePacificNorthwestLaboratories,January1979.ParticipationinHealyIIElectricGeneration,FairbanksMunicipalUtilitiesSystem.HarstadAssociates,Inc.June1978.EconomicFeasibilityofapossibleAnchorage-FairbanksTransmissionIntertie.RobertW.RetherfordAssociatesforAlaskaPowerAuthority(notyetcompleted).1976PowerSystemsStudy,ChugachElectricAssociation,Inc.TippettandGee.March1976.ComparativeStudyofCoalandNuclearGenerationOptionsinthePacificNorthwest,WashingtonPublicPowerSupplySystem,June1977.Coal-FiredPowerplantCapitalCostEstimates,ElectricPowerResearchInstitute,January1977. 28AnalysisoftheEconomicsofCoalVersusNuclearforaPowerplant'NearBoise,Idaho,IdahoNuclearEnergyCommission,March1976.AlaskaElectricPower,An,AnalysisofFutureRequirementsandSupplyAlternativesfortheRailbeltRegion,BattellePacificNorthwestLaboratories,March1978.GeologyandCoalResourcesoftheHomerDistrictKenaiCoalField,Alaska,GeologicalSurveyBulletin1058-F,1959.DevelopmentoftheBelugaCoalField,astatusreport,A.M.Laird,PlacerAmexInc.,SanFrancisco,California,October1978.TTidal'PowerFromCookInlet,Alaska,Swales,M.C.andWilson,E.M.,publishedinTidalPower,ProceedingsoftheInternationalConferenceontheUtilizationofTidalPower,May1970.AdvisoryCommitteeReportsfor'FederalPowerCoa~issionAlaskaPowerSurvey:ReportoftheExecutiveAdvisoryCommittee,December1974EconomicAnalysisandLoadProjections,May1974ResourcesandElectricPowerGeneration,May1974CoordinatedSystemsDevelopmentandInterconnection,December1974EnvironmentalConsiderationsandConsumerAffairs,May1974 29AlaskaPowerSurvey!FederalPowerCommission,19?9.DevilCanyonStatusReport,AlaskaPowerAdministration,May1974.DevilCanyonProject-Alaska!ReportoftheCommissionerofReclamation!March1961,andsupportingreports.Reprint!March1974.ReassessmentReportonUppersusitnaRiverHydroelectricDevelopmentforthestateofAlaska,HenryJ.KaiserCompany,Sept.1974.ProjectIndependence!FederalEnergyAdministration!1974.Amainreport!summary,seventaskforcereports,andthedraftenvironmentalimpactstatement.EngineeringandEconomicStudiesfortheCityofAnchorage,AlaskaMunicipalLightandPowerDepartment,R.W.BeckandAssociatesandRalphR.StefanoandAssociates,August1970.PowerSupply,GoldenValleyElectricAssociation,Inc.,Fairbanks,Alaska,StanleyConsultants,1970.CopperValleyElectricAssociation,Inc.-15YearPowerCostStudy,Hydro/Diesel,RobertW.RetherfordAssociates,October1974. ..30EnvironmentalAnalysisforProposedAdditionstoChugachElectricAssociation,Inc.,GeneratingstationatBeluga,Alaska,ChugachElectricAssociation,October1973.CentralAlaskaPowerPool,workingpaper,AlaskaPowerAdministration,October1969.AlaskaRailbeltTransmissionSystem,workingpaper,AlaskaPowerAdministration,December1967.ElectricGenerationandTransmissionIntertieSystemforInteriorandSouthcentralAlaska,CH2MHill,1972.CentralAlaskaPowerStudy,TheRalphM.ParsonsCompanYtundated.AlaskaPowerFeasibilityStudYtTheRalphM.ParsonsCompany,1962. LOAD/RESOURCEANDSYSTEMCOSTANALYSISFORTHERAILBELTREGIONOFALASKA:1978-2010forALASKAPOWERADMINISTRATIONu.s.DEPARTMENTOFENERGYbyJ. J.JacobsenW.H.SwiftJ.A.HaechJanuary1979PacificNorthwestLaboratoryRichland,Washington99352PNL-2896INFORMALREPORT CONTENTSLISTOFFIGURESLISTOFTABLES.1.0INTRODUCTION2.0SUMMARYANDCONCLUSIONS3.0LOAD/RESOURCEANALYSES3.1ANALYSISMETHODOLOGY3.2ASSUMPTIONS3.2.1ForecastedPowerandEnergyRequirements3.2.2ExistingandPlannedGeneratingCapacity3.2.3ReserveMargin3~2.4TransmissionLosses3.2.5ConstructionScheduleConstraints3.2.6PlantAvailabilityConstraints3.2.7EconomicGeneratingUnitSize3.3SYSTEMCONFIGURATIONS:DEFINITIONOFCASESANALYZED3.3.1Case1:WithoutInterconnectionandWithoutUpperSusitnaProject3.3.2Case2:WithInterconnection,WithoutUpperSusitnaProject3.3.3Case3:InterconnectedSystemWithUpperSusitnaProject3.4RESULTSOFLOAD/RESOURCEANALYSES4:0SYSTEMPOWERCOSTANALYSES'4.1FACTORSDETERMININGTHECOSTOFPOWER4.1.1Capita1Costs4.1.2HeatRate4.1.3Operation,Maintenance,andReplacementCosts4.1.4FinancingDiscountRate4.1.5PaybackPeriod4.1.6AnnualPlantUtilizationFactor4.1.7UnitFuelCosts4.1.8GeneralInflationRate.4.1.9ConstructionEscalationRateiiivvi4788815152121222525252630316666666868696969697373 4.1.10FuelEscalationRate..734.2METHODOFCOMPUTINGTHEANNUALCOSTOFPOWERFROMINDIVIDUALGENERATINGFACILITIES734.3METHODOFCOMPUTINGAVERAGESYSTEMPOWERCOST754.4RESULTSOFSYSTEMCASHFLOWANDPOWERCOSTCALCULATIONS76iv 4.5PowerCostsforAnchorageLowLoadGrowthScenario4.6PowerCostsforAnchorageMediumLoadGrowthScenario4.7PowerCostsforAnchorageHighLoadGrowthScenario$4.8PowerCostsforFairbanksLowLoadGrowthScenario4.9PowerCostsforFairbanksMediumLoadGrowthScenario4.10PowerCostsforFairbanksHighLoadGrowthScenarioFIGURES3.1RailbeltRegionPeakLoads123.2Anchorage-CookInletAreaAnnualEnergy133.3FairbanksAreaAnnualEnergy143.4PlantUtilizationFactorversusPlantAge233.5RailbeltRegionShowingtheWatanaandDevilCanyonDamsites,aPossibleRoutefortheInterconnection,andtheBelugaArea283.6Load/ResourceAnalysisforAnchorage-CookInletAreaWithoutInterconnectionandWithoutSusitnaProject(Case1).603.7.Load/ResourceAnalysisforAncho'rage-CookInletAreaWithInterconnectionbutWithoutUpperSusitnaProject(Case2)613.8Load/ResourceAnalysisforAnchorage-CookInletAreaWithInterconnectionandWithUpperSusitnaProjectComingOnLinein1994(Case3)623.9Load/ResourceAnalysisforFairbanks-TananaValleyAreaWithoutInterconnectionandWithoutUpperSusitnaProject(Case1)633.10Load/ResourceAnalysisforFairbanks-TananaValleyAreaWithInterconnectionbutWithoutUpperSusitnaProject(Case2).643.11Load/ResourceAnalysisforFa'irbanks-TananaValleyAreai~ithInterconnectionandWithUpperSusitnpProjectComingOnLinein1994(Case3)654.1ComponentsoftheTotalAnnualCostofPower674.2EstimatesofFutureCoalPrices-2%and7%Escalation704.3EstimatesofFutureNaturalGasPrices-2%and7%Escalation714.4EstimatesofFutureFuelOilandDieselPrices-2%and7%Escalation72116117118119120121v 2.13.13.23.33.43.53.63.73.83.93.103.113.123.134.14.2TABLESComparisonofPowerCostsforYear2005Anchorage-CookInletAreaPowerandEnergyRequirementsFairbanks-TananaValleyAreaPowerandEnergyReq~irementsTotalPowerRequirements;Anchorage-CookInletAreaandFairbanks-TananaValleyAreaCombined.Existing(Fall-1978)GeneratingCapacitiesfor,Anchorage-CookInletAreaExisting(Fall-1978)GeneratingCapacitiesforFairbanks-Tanana,ValleyAreaAnchorage-CookInletAreaExistingCapacityandMaximumAnnualPlantUtilization(October1978).Fairbanks-TananaValleyAreaExistingCapacitya~dMaxtmumAnnualPlantUtilization(October1978)PlannedAdditionsforRailbeltRegion(1979-1995)TransmissionSystemAlternatives.Load/ResourceBalanceforCase3:MediumLoadGrowthScenarioScheduleofPlantAdditions-(Megawatts)BaseCasesWithoutInterconnectionsScheduleofPlantAdditions-(Megawatts)CasesWithInterconnectionWithoutUpperSusitna.ScheduleofPlantAdditions-(Megawatts)CasesWithInterconnectionWithUpperSusitnaComingOnLinein1994Anchorage-CockInletArea,LowLoadGrowthScenario,Case1,0%Inflation.Anchorage-CookInletArea,LowLoadGrowthScenario,Case1,5%Inflation.6910111618191920273254565878794.34.44.54.64.7l\nchorage-Cook0%Inflation.Anchorage-Cook5%Inflation.Anchorage-:-Cook0%Inflation.Anchorage-Cook5%Inflation.Anchorage-CookO~bInflation.InletArea,LowLoadGrowthScenario,Case2InletArea,LowLoadGrowthScenario,Case2,._.InletArea,LowLoadGrowthScenario,Case3,InletArea,LowLoadGrowthScenario,Case3,InletArea,MediumLoadGrowthScenario,Case1,vi8081828384 TABLES(contd)4.8Anchorage-CookInletArea,MediumLoadGrowthScenari0,Case1,.5%Inflation·854.9Anchorage-CookInletArea,MediumLoadGrowthScenario,Case2,0%Inflation·864.10Anchorage-CookInletArea,MediumLoadGrowthScenari0,Case2,5%Inflation·874.11Anchorage-CookInletArea,MediumLoadGrowthScenario,Case3,0%Inflation·884.12Anchorage-CookInletArea,MediumLoadGrowthScenario,Case3,.5%Inflation·894.13Anchorage-CookInletArea,HighLoadGrowthScenario,Case1,0%Inflation·904.14Anchorage-CookInletArea,HighLoadGrowthScenario,Case1,5%Inflation914.15Anchorage-CookInletArea,HighLoadGrowthScenario,Case2,0%Inflation·924.16Anchorage-CookInletArea,HighLoadGrowthScenario,Case2,5%Inflation·934.17Anchorage-CookInletArea,HighLoadGrowthScenario,Case3,0%Inflation944.18Anchorage-CookInletArea,HighLoadGrowthScenario,Case3,5%Inflation·954.19Fairbanks-TananaVa11eyArea,LowGrowthScenario,Case1,0%Inflation·964.20Fairbanks-TananaVa11eyArea,LowGrowthScenario,Case1,5%Inflation·974.21Fairbanks-TananaValleyArea,LowGro'tJthScenario,Case2,0%Inflation984.22Fairbanks-TananaVa11eyArea,LowGrowthScenari0,Case2,5%Inflation·994.23Fairbanks-TananaVa11eyArea,LmvGrowthScenario,Case3,msInflation·1004.24'Fairbanks-TananaVa11eyArea,LowGrowthScenario,Case3,5%Inflation1014.25Fairbanks-TananaVa11eyArea,MediumGrowthScenario,Case1,0%Inflation1024.26Fairbanks-TananaVa11eyArea,~~ediurnGrowthScenario,Case1,5%Inflation·103vii TABLES(contd)4.27Fairbanks-TananaValleyArea,MediumGrowthScenario,Case2,0%Inflation.1044.28Fairbanks-TananaValleyArea,MediumGrowthScenario,Case2,5%Inflation.1054.29Fairbanks-TananaValleyArea,MediumGrowthScenario,Case3,0%Inflation.1064.30Fairbanks-TananaVa11eyArea,t~ediurnGrowthScenari0,Case3,5%Inflation.1074.31Fairbanks-TananaValleyArea,HighGrowthScenari0,Case1,.0%Inflation.1084.32Fairbanks-TananaValleyArea,HighGrowthScenario,Case1,5%Inflation.1094.33Fairbanks-TananaValleyArea,HighGrowthScenario,Case2,0%Inflation1104.34Fairbanks-TananaVa11eyArea,HighGrowthScenario,Case2,5%Inflation.1114.35Fairbanks-TananaVa11eyArea,HighGrowthScenario,Case3,0%Inflation.1124.36Fairbanks-TananaVa11eyAr9a.,HighGrowthScenario,Case3,5%Inflation.113viii LOAD/RESOURCEANDSYSTEMCOSTANALYSISFORTHERAILBELTREGIONOFALASKA-1978-2010PreparedfortheAlaskaPowerAdministrationbyBattellePacificNorthwestLaboratoriesJanuary19791.0INTRODUCTIONTheAlaskaRailbeltregionpresentssomeuniqueattributesforconsidera-tioninfuturepowersystemplanning.Theregioncurrentlyconsumes83%oftheState'selectricpowerandeventhelowere?timatesofelectricalloadgrowth(5%perannum)fortheregionareabovethenationalaverage.TheState,andparticularlythisregion,isadifficultoneinwhichtoforecastloadgrowths.Thisdifficultyresultsfromthenatureoftheeconomicactivitybasebeinginfluencedbyexternalforcessuchasoilandgasdevelop-mentsandtransportationsystems.·withtheircyclica1tendency.Also,sincetheeconomicbaseisstillnotlarge,theinjectionofacompetitivelyscaledinpustrysuchasmajorpetroleumrefineryorelectrochemicai"industrycansig-~ificantlyperturbaforecast.AmajorshiftintheAlaskanRailbeltfuturepowergeneratingmodeappears.inevitable.TheCookInletRegion'scapacityispresentlydominatedbycombus-tionturbinesfiredbycurrentlylow-costnaturalgas;theFairbanks-NorthStarBor~ughbyamixofcoal-firedsteamturbinegenerationandoil-firedcombus-tionturbines.Theoilandgasbasedmodeofgeneration,however,arehighlyexposedtoinflationarypressures,externalmarketforces,andFederalregula-toryintervention.TheRailbeltregion,however,doeshaveanumberofoptionsopeninthefuture.Theseinclude:1 •Continueduseofoilandgasinexistingplants.•LncreasedcoalbasedthermalgenerationbothintheinteriorbasedontheHealyCoalFieldandintheCookInletRegionbasedonseveralcoalfields,includingtheverylargereservesintheBelugaRegion.•Developmentofthesigniffcanthydroelectricpotential,includingUpperSusitnaRiverandBradleyLake.•AtransmissionintertiebetweentheCookInletandFairbanksloadcentersisofobviousinterestasameansofincreasingreliabilityoralternatelyreducingadditionalgeneratingcapacityneededforreliability.MarketingofpowerfromUpperSusitnaprojectswillbedependentuponsuchanintertie.Electricpowergenerationbywhatevermeansisaverycapitalintensiveactivity.Differentformsofgeneration,however,havedifferentlevelsofexposuretoinflationandescalationand,costcomparisonsonastraight$/kWofinstalledcapacitycanbemisleading.Thusahighercostperkilowatthydro-electricprojecthasthisexposurelargelylimitedtothetimeperiodduringplanningandconstruction.Ontheotherhand,afossllfueledplantfacesrisingfuelcostsaswellasoperatingandmaintenancecostsinthefuture.Regardlessofthesefactors,allgenerationoptionsarefacedwithlongleadtimesfromdecisiontoproceedtocommercialoperatingdate.ThepurposeofthisreportistoexaminetheprobabletimingofmajorgenerationandtransmissioninvestmentsandtheirimpactonsystempowercostsunderarangeofassumptionsaboutpowerdemandsandinflationandescalationratesforthefollowinggeneralRailbeltpowersupplystrategies:Case1.Alladditionalgeneratingcapacityassumedtobecoalfir~dsteamturbineswithoutatransmissioninterconnectionbetweentheAnchorage-CookInletareaandtheFairbanks-TananaValleyarealoadcenters.Case2.Case3.Alladditionalgeneratingcapacityassumedtobecoalfiredsteamturbines,includingatransmissioninterconnection.AdditionalcapacitytoincludetheUpperSusitnaProject(includingtransmissionintertie)plusadditionalcoalasneeded.2 AlaskaPowerAdministration(APA)UpperSusitnaProject.TheAPApowerrequirements,costassump-ThebalanceofthecriteriawereThefirststepinvolvedinestimatingthecostofpowerfromalternativegenerationandtransmissionsystemconfigurationsistoperfOrTIlaseriesofload/resourceanalyses.Theseanalysesdeterminethescheduleofmajorinvest-mentsbasedonassumptionsabouttheloadgrowth,thecapacityandpowerproduc-tionoftheprospectivegeneratingfacilities,andconstraintsastowhenthefacilitiescancomeonline.Theload/resourceanalysesprovideinformationontheannualpowerproduc-tionofthevarioustypesofgeneratingplants.Oncetheannualplantutiliza-tionsareknown,theycanbeusedinconjunctionwithestimatesofannualsystemcoststocalculatetheannualcostofproducingpowerfromthefacili-ties.Summingtheannualcostforgenerationandtransmissionofeachofthegeneratingfacilitiesgivesatotalcostfortheentiresystembeinganalyzed.Dividingthetotalannualcostbythepowerproducedgivesanaverageannualcostofpowerfortheentiresystem.Bycomparingtheaverageannualpowercostsovertheperiodofinterest(1978-20l~)thealternativeconfigurationscanberankedbasedonthecostofpower.Allotherthingsbeingequal,thesystemconfigurationproducingpoweratthelowestcostshouldbeselectedasthemostdesirablesystem.ThereportwaspreparedoncontracttotheasinputtoAPAlspowermarketanalysisforthefurnished,andisresponsiblefor,alldataontions,andcertainkeycriteriaforthestudy.develDpedjointlybytheAPAandBattelle.Chapter2containsabriefsummaryoftheresultsofthestudy.Theload/resourceanalysesaredescribedinChapter3.Chapter4presentsthemethodol-ogyandresultsofthecashflowandpowercostcalculations.AppendixAcon-tainsthedatausedintheload/resourceanalyses.Appendix8containsalist-ingofthecomputermodel(AEPMOD)usedtoperformtheload/resourcematching.TheoutputofAEPMODforthecasesanalyzedinthisreportarepresentedinAppendixC.Appendix0containsalistingofthemodelusedtocomputethecostofpowerandAppendixEcontainssomeselectedresultsofECOST4modelruns.3 2.0SUMMARYANDCONCLUSIONSLoad/ResourceMatching•ForecastedpeakloadsfortheAnchorage/CookInletandtheFairbanks/TananaValleyloadcentershavebeenmatchedwithschedulesofplantaddi-tionsforlow,median,andhighforecastedloadgrowths.Thesewerereplicatedforcasesconsidering1)continuedseparationoftheloadcen-ters,2)interconnectionwithoutdevelopmentofUpperSusitnahydroelec-tricpower,3)interconnectionincludingdevelopmentoftheproposedUpperSusitnahydroelectricprojectsbeginningin1994./IThermalgeneratingcapacityadditionstotheyear2010wereestimatedasfollows:Case1:WithoutInterconnectionandUpperSusitnaAssumedLoadMegawattsGrowthAnchorageFairbanksTotalCase2:InterconnectionwithoutUpperSusitna.AssumedLoadMega\'!attsGrowthAnchorageFairbanksTotalCase3:InterconnectionwithUpperSusitnaAssumedLoadMegawattsGrowthAnchorageFairbanksTotalLowMedianHighLowMedianHighLowMedianHigh260046008200220042008200100030006600471871147147167112711713711071307154719671267148719471117133717671 •ProvisionoftheinterconnectionwithoutUpperSusitnareducesthermalplantadditionrequirementsby200to600MWovertheperiod.•InterconnectionwithUpper'Susitnareducesthermalplantadditionrequire-mentsby1500to1800MWdependingontheassumedloadgrowth.•Underthecriteriaused,theinterconnectioniscalledforin1986,1989,and1994forhigh,median,andlowloadgrowthcases,respectively,with-outUpperSusitnaprojects.WithUpperSusitna,thecorrespondingdatesare1986,1989,and1991.SystemPowerCost•FortheAnchorage-CookInletloadcenterconstructionoftheinter-connectionreducesthecostofpowercomparedtothecasewithoutaninterconnection.•FortheAnchorage-CookInletareainclusionoftheUpperSusitnaprojectintothesystemgenerallyraisesthecostofpowerabovetheothercasesduringthefirst2to4yearsaftertheWatanaDamcomesonlinewithresultsinlowerpowercostsduringthe1996-2010timeperiod.•FortheFairbanks-TananaValleyareaconstructionoftheinterconnectionagaingenerallyreducesthecostofpower.•FortheFairbanks-TananaValleyloadcenterinclusionoftheUpperSusitnaprojectgenerallyraisesthecostofpowerabovethecasewiththeinter-connectionforabout2yearsaftertheWatanaDamcomesonlinebut,aswiththeAnchorage-CookIn1~tarea,resultsinlowerpowercostsduringthe1996-2010timeperiod.•Table2.1presentsacomparisonofthecostsofpowerintheyear2005forthecasesevaluatedinthereportusingthecasewithouteithertheinterconnectionortheUpperSusitnaprojects(Case1)asthebase.ThecostsofpowercomputedinCase1arecomparedtocaseswiththeinter-connection(Case2),andwithUpperSusitnacomingonlinein1994(Case3).Asshown,thecostsofpowerarereducedbelowthecostofpowerforCase1inbutonecase.Thisreductionvariesfrom4.3%to39.3%depend-inguponthesituation.5 TABLE2.1.ComparisonofPowerCostsforYear2005PercentChangeinCostofPowerBelowCase15%InflationAnchorageFairbanksHighi~ed;anLowHighMedianLowCase2-4.3.-10.1-12.2+8.9-9.6-4.2Case3-10.5 -30.3-39.3-8.9-30.8-26.36 3.0LOAD/RESOURCEANALYSESTheload/resourceanalysis"isintendedtomatchforecastedelectricpowerrequirementswithappropriategeneratingcapabilityadditions.Theanalysisschedulesnewplantadditions,keepstrackofolderplantretirements,andcom-putestheloadingofinstalled'capacityonayear-by-yearbasisovertheperiod1978to2010.Theanalysisschedulestheadditionstoassurethatbothpeakloadsandenergyrequirements(includingreserves)'aremetonayear-by-yearbasiswiththeleastamountofinstalledcapacityandwithgeneratingplantsloadedinanypreselectedorder,typicallyinorderoflowesttohighestmarginalpowercosts.Anumberoffactorsmustbetakenintoaccount:1.Forecastedloadsintermsofpeakpowerrequirementsinmegawatts(MW)andannualenergyrequirementsinmillionsofkillowatthours(MMkWh).2.Thestockofexistinggeneratingcapacitybytype,size,yearofretirement,andmaximumallowableplantfactor.3.Desiredreliabilityreservemargintoprovideinsuranceagainstforcedoutages,unforeseendelaysinplantavailability,orloadgrowthsinexcessofthoseanticipated.4.Transmissionanddistributionlosses.5.Constructionscheduleconstraints;i.e.,leadtimesnecessarybetweenunitselectionandfirstpoweronlinedate.6.Plantavailabilityconstraintsbasedontypesandage.(Thermalplantsgenerallyhaveloweravailabilityatthestartandendoftheireconomic1He.)7.Assumptionsabouttheeconomicsizeoffuturegeneratingplantsinrelationtotheloads.8.Systemconfiguration;i.e.,interconnections,alternativesitingstrategies.7 3.1ANALYSISMETHODOLOGYTheload/resourcematchingisdoneonanannualbasis.TheAlaskanelec-tricutilitysystemsexperiencetheirannualpeakloadrequirementsduringthe.wintermonthsandresourcesmustbeavailabletomeetthesepeakloads.DuringrecentyearstheannualloadfactorforRailbeltelectricaldemandhastypi-callybeenabout46-50%.Itisexpectedtoremainintherangeof50-52%duringthetimehorizonofthisstudy.Theexistingandplannedfuturegener-atingcapacityinthe'Railbeltregioniscapableofoperatingatacapacityfactoreitherequaltoorgreaterthan50%.Becauseofthis,thedecisiontoaddnewcapacitywillusuallybebasedontheneedforcapacity(kW)ratherthanenergy(kWh),Thusinthisanalysiscapacityadditionsarescheduledbasedonpeakloadsratherthanuponaverageannualenergy.Thegeneralapproachtoload/resourceanalysisistosummarizeexistingandplannedgrossresourcesforeachyear,adjustthemdownwardforareliabil-itymarginandforsystemtransmissionlossestoarriveatnetresources.Ifthesenetresourcesexceedthecriticalperiodloadfortheyearbeinganalyzed,plantadditionsarenotcalledupandtheanalysisproceedstothenextyearandisrepeated.Atsomepoint,thenetresourceswillnotmeettheforecastedpeakloadsandadditionalcapacitymustbeadded.Also,foreachyear,theenergygeneratedbyeachclassofplants(e.g.,hydro,steamturgine,combus-tionturbine,anddieseliscomputedsothatplantutilizationfactorsareavailableforreviewandsystemenergycostscanbedeveloped.Thestepwisecalculatipnsarecontinuedtotheendoftheperiodbeingstudies(2010).3.2ASSUMPTIONS3.2.1ForecastedPowerandEnergyRequirementsTheanalysesarebasedonforecastspreparedbytheAlaskaPowerAdminis-trationforboththeAnchorage-CookInletandtheFairbanks-TananaValleyareas.Probablehighandlowboundswereprovidedalongwithmedianforecasts.ThesearepresentedinTables3.1through3.3andareshowngraphicallyinFigures3.1through3.3.Inadditiontoutilityloads,Anchorage-CookInletforecastsincludebothnationaldefenseandindustrialloadsandtheFairbanks-TananaValleyforecastsincludenationaldefenseloads.8 TABLE3.1.Anchorage-CookInletAreaPowerandEnergyRequirementsPEAKPOWER19771/198019851990 199520002025r~w-MWMWMWMv!MWMWUTILITYHigh6201,0001,5152,1503,1807,240Median4245708101,1151,5002,0453,370Low5256508201,0401,3201,520NATIONALDEFENSEHigh313234363848Median41303030 3030 30Low2928 26242418INDUSTRIALHigh323443995416831,615Median253264119199278660Low27597087104250TOTALHigh6831,376 1,9482,7273,9018,903Median4906329041,2641,7292,3534,060Low5817379161,1511,448 1,788ANNUALENERGYUTILITYGl-JhllGWhGWhGWhGWhGHh.GHhHigh2,7204,3906,6309,43013,92031,700Median1,7902,5003,5304,8806,5708,96014,750Low2,3002,8403,5904,5605,7706,670NATIONALDEFENSEHigh135142149157 165211Median131131 131131131131131Low12712111510510481INDUSTRIALHigh1701,8102,1002,8403,5908,490Median4701703406301,0501,4603,470Low1413123704605501,310TOTALHigh3,0256,3428,87912,427 17,67540,401Median1,9912,8014,0015,6417,75110,551 18,351Low2,5683,2734,0755,1256,4248,06111MW=MegawattsGWh=Gigawatt-hours(EquivalenttoMMkWh=Millionsofkilowatt-hours)Source:AlaskaPowerAdministration,October19789 10 TABLE3.3.TotalPowerRequirements;'Anchorage-CookInletAreaandFairbanks-TananaValleyAreaCombined.PEAKPOWER19771/198019851990199520002025MW-MVJMWM~1MVJMVJ~~WTOTALHigh8901,6712,3603,2784,64510,422Median6508291,1621,5922,1342,8524,796Low7699611,1771,4491,7832,146ANNUALENERGYGHhl!GWhGVJhGHhGWhGWhGWhTOTALHigh3,9287,63610,68414,84420,93547,054Median2,6813,6635,1337,0789,52812,73821,578Low3,3914,2565,2196,4307,8909,630l!~~W=Megawatts(EquivalenttoMMkWh=Millionsofkilowatt-hours)GWh=Gigawatt-hoursSource:AlaskaPowerAdministration,Octoberi97811 100'L..-__....I..-__-l-__-'o-l...l.--__.......l-__--J-__---!.J2005200019951990FAIRBANKS-TANANAVALLEYAREA1985FIGURE3.1.Rai1be1tRegionPeakLoads1980ANCHORAGE-COOKINLETAREA20030006000500040002000V'lLOW.-.-<l:::s:<l::<.::>1000w.J~900Cl800<l::0-J700::.::::<l::600w.JCl..500400300LOW12 60,00050,00040,00030,000V'l520,000MEDIUM01=--~<:3:0-l~z10,000LOW09000-l8000-l:E7000->-(,:)6000e:::u.Jz5000'..l.l....l<:::::;)4000zz<:3000•'20001000"--__-'-'--__-'-__---J'--__....l-__-:......I..l1980198519901995200020052010FIGURE3.2.Anchorage-CookInletAreaAnnualEnergy13 6000500040003000(J')MEDIUM0::::2000:::::l0=F1=LOW<:3:0.....I~1000z0900.....I800.....I~700>-600(.:)0::::Ll.JZ500Ll.J.....I<:400:::::lZZ<:300200100l...--__-!--__-..l...__---''---__....J..-__--l-__---J..I..l19801985199019952000FIGURE3.3.FairbanksAreaAnnualEnergy14 TheAlaskaPowerAdministrationdataindicatethatapproximately80%oftheRailbeltregionloadsareexpectedtobeintheAnchorage-CookInletarea.Theseloadshavebeeninterpretedasrecognizingdistributionlosses.3.2.2ExistingandPlannedGeneratingCapacityTheexistingstockofgen~ratingcapacityfortheAnchorage-CookInletareaandtheFairbanks-TananaValleyareaispresentedinTables3.4and3.5,respectively.ThetotalexistingcapacitiesandmaximumplantutilizationfactorsforthevariousgeneratingtypesfortheAnchorage-CookInletareaandtheFairbanks-TananaValleyareaareshowninTables3.6and3.7,respectively.Theload/resourcematchinganalysesusethesetotalsforthefirstyearoftheanalyses(1978-1979).Generatingcapacityadditionscanbespecifiedtobeaddedinoneoftwoways.Itcaneitherbeaddedinaspecifiedyearorcanbeaddedwhenitisrequiredtomaintainadequategeneratingcapacity.Intheformercasethegeneratingunitsareaddedwhethertheyarerequiredornot.TheplannedadditionsshowninTable3.8arebroughtonlineintheyearsspecified.Nationaldefensegeneratingunitsareassumedtobereplacedbysteamturbinegeneratingunitsthesameyearastheyareretired.(SeeSection3.2.7foradiscussionoftheunitsaddedasrequiredtomaintainadequategeneratingcapacity.)3.2.3ReserveMarginUtilitysystemsinvariablycarryareservemarginofgeneratingandtrans-missioncapacityasinsuranceagainstlossofload,unexpectedpeakrequire-mentsasaresultofsevereweather,loadgrowthsmorerapidthananticipated,adversehydroelectricconditions,anddelaysinthecommercialoperationofnewgeneration.Themostappropriatereservemarginwillvaryfromsystemtosystemdependingonthenatureoftheloadsandtypesofresourcesandspecialfactors~Typically,areservecapacityatpeakof20%isusednationally.However,thiscanvarytoaslowas12%asisthepresentcaseforthePacificNorthwestwithitspredominanceofreliablehydropowerandinterruptableloads.15 TABLE3.4.Existing(Fall1978)GeneratingCapacitiesforAnchorage-CookInletAreaTypeofCapacityRetirementUnitReference/NameLocationGeneration(kW)YearANCHORAGEMUNICIPALLIGHTANDPOWER(AML&P)DeiselAnchorageDiesel2,2001982Unit 1AnchorageS.C.C.T.*15,1301982Unit2AnchorageS.C.C.T.15,1301984Unit3AnchorageS.C.C.T.18,6501988Unit4AnchorageS.C.C.T.31,7001992Unit5AnchorageS.C.C.T.36,0001995Unit6AnchorageC.C.16,5001995Subtotal137,500(a)CHUGACHELECTRICASSOCIATION(CEA)BelugaUnit 1BelugaS.C.C.T.}33,0001988Unit2BelugaS.C.C.T.Unit3BelugaR.C.C.T.*54,6001993Unit4BelugaS.C.C.T.9,3001996Unit5BelugaR.C.C.T.65,0001995Unit6BelugaS.C.C.T.67,8101996Unit7BelugaS.C.C.T.68,000(e)1996Unit8BelugaC.C.32,2001996BerniceLakeUnit1BerniceLakeS.C.C.T.8,3701983Unit2BerniceLakeS.C.C.T.17,8601992Unit3BerniceLakeS.C.C.T.18,0001998CooperLakeCooperLakeHydro16,500NAInternatiana1Unit1S.C.C.T.}30,5101985Unit2S.C.C.T.Unit3S.C.C.T.18,1401991KnikArmCombinedS.T.*10,000(f)1987Subtota1449,790MATANUSKAELECTRICASSOCIATION(MEA)TalkeetnaTalkeetnaDiesel600(b)1993HOMERELEGTRICASSOCIATION(HEA)EnglishBayEnglishBayDiesel1001993Homer&Kenaie300(c)CombinedHomerDiesel1993HomerCombinedHomerS.C.C.T.7,000(d)1995PortGrahamCombinedPortGrahamDiesel200199316 TABLE3.4.(contd)TypeofUnitReference/NameLocationGenerationHOMERELECTRICASSOCIATION(HEA)Capacity(kW)(contd)RetirementYearSeldoviaCombinedSeldoviaDieselSubtota1SEWARDELECTRICSYSTEM(SES)Subtota1ALASKAPOWERADMINISTRATIONEklutnaHydroSubtota1NATIONALDEFENSES.T.DieselDieselSubtota1INDUSTRIALS.C.C.T.SewardCombinedEklutnaFt.Richardson/EmendorfKenaiSewardDiesel1,5009,1003,000(b)2,5005,500(APA)30,00030,00040,5007,3002,00049,800l2,300(g)198019851996NA1991198519911988TOTAL685,290*S.C.C.T.-SimpleCycleCombustionTurbineR.C.C.T.-RegenerativeCycleCombustionTurbineS.T.-SteamTurbineC.C.-CombinedCycle(a)Capacitiesforindividualunitsarefromsourcesand2.Thesesumto118,810kW.Totalshownisfromsource2.(b)Standby(c)LeasedtoCEA(d)LeasedtoHEAbyGold~nValleyElectricAssociationfor1977-1979.(e)Includedinthisstudy,butlate1978plansaretodeferBetuga8until1980anddoublethecapacity.(f)Nameplatecapacityderatedto10,000KWfrom14,500KW.(g)Recentdatashowsindustrialloadtobe25,000KWratherthan12,300KW.SOURCES:I.ElectricPowerinAlaska,1976-1995,ISER,UniversityofAlaska,pp.J.5.2-7.4,August1976.2.AlaskaElectricPowerStatistics1960-1976,AlaskaPowerAdministra-tion,pp.15-17,July1977.3.1976PowerSystemStudy,ChugachElectricAssociation,Inc.,TippettandGee,Dallas,TX,p.7,March1976.4.AlaskaPowerAdministration,August1978.17 NATIONALDEFENSECombinedDiesel14,0001988ClearA.F.B.andFt.GreelyS.T.24,5001995Ft.Wainwrightand32,000(a)EilsonA.F.B.S.T.1990Subtotal70,500(a)5MWplantatEilsonA.F.B.inst~lledin1970andold1.5MWplantatFt.Wainwrightwereinadvertantlyomitted.SOURCE:1.InteriorAlaskaEnergyAnalysisTeam,FinalReport,June1977.2.AlaskaPowerAdministration,August1978.18 TABLE3.6.Anchorage-CookInletAreaExistingCapacityandMaximumAnnualPlantUtilization(October1978)HydroSteamElectricCombustionTurbineDieselCapacity(MW)46.550.5575.0119.13.PlantUtilization(%)50.075.050.015.0TABLE3.7.Fairbanks-TananaValleyAreaExistingCapacityandMaximumAnnualPlantUtilization(October1978)HydroSteamElectricCombustionTurbineDieselCapacity(MW)o110208.94619•PlantUtilization(%)50.075.050.010.0 UnitReference/YearofTypeofCapacityNameInstallationLocationGeneration(kl-J)ANCHORAGEMUNICIPALLIGHTANDPOWER(A~1L&P)Unit71979AnchorageS.C.C.T.(a)65,000(b)Unit61979.AnchorageC.C.16,500CHUGACHELECTRICASSOCIATION(CEA)Beluga#91979BelugaC.C.32,200(c)X-l1980S.C.C.T..100,000BerniceLake#41981BerniceLakeS.CC.T.18,000X-21982S.C.C.T.100,000BerniceLake#51984BerniceLakeS.C.C.T.18,000TABLE3.8.PlannedAdditionsforRailbeltRegion(1979-1995)Healy#2BradleyLakeGOLDENVALLEYELECTRICASSOCIATION(GVEA)AsRequiredHealyS.T.ALASKAPOWERADMINISTRATION(APA)1985BradleyLakeHydroNATIONALDEFENSE1985Ft.RichardsonandEmendorfA.F.G.S.T.1988FairbanksCombinedS.T.1990Ft.GreelyandClearA.F.B.S.T.1991Ft.RichardsonandEmendorfA.F.B.S.T.1995Ft.GreelyandCleanA.F.B.S.T.100,00070,0007,30014,00032,00042,50024,500(a)Unit#7isasimplecyclecombustionturbineunitwhichalsosuppliesexhaustheattoUnit#6.(b)ThisincreasereflectstheincreaseincapacityresultingfromtheadditionofUnit#7.(c)Beluga#9isasteamunitadditiontoBeluga#7(convertsthesetoa100MWcombinedcycleunit).SOURCES:1.1976PowerSystemStudy,ChugachElectricAssociation,Inc.,TippettandGee,Dallas,TX,pp.7and25,March1976.2.ElectricPowerinAlaska,1976-1995,ISER,UniversityofAlaska,pp.J.5.2-7.4,August1976.3.AlaskaPowerAdministration,August1978.20 Sinceareservemargineffectivelyincreasestheamountofgeneratingcapacityinplaceatanygiventime,itdoescontributecoststothesystem.Therefore,anexcessivereservemarginistobeavoidedwhileatthesametimerecognizingthataninadequatereservemargincould,onoutage,resultinawidevarietyofsocialcosts.Forthepurposesofthisstudy,theAlaskaPowerAdministrationhassuggestedthattheanalysisbebasedonreservemarginsof25%and20%fornon-interconnectedloadcentersandtheinterconnectedsystems,respectively.Inthefuture,amorerefinedanalysisofthedesiredreservemarginappearswarranted.3.2.4TransmissionLossesTransmissionlossesmustbeaddedtoforecastsofpeakestablishnetcapacityandenergyattheplantsubstations.Administrationexpectslossesasfollows:%Capacity5Energy1.5andenergyloadstoTheAlaskaPowerTheresultsoftheload/resourceanalysisarethusinnetdeliverablecapacityandenergyanddonotincludeenergyandcapacityrequiredforinternalplantoperations.Theabovelossesarereasonablyapplicablefortheindependentoperationoftheloadcenters,forinterconnectedsystemsincludingtheUpperSusitnaprojectandforconfigurationswithfuturegenerationcapacityadditionsbeingdistributedproportionallyneartheloadcenters.Inthecaseofinterconnec-tionwithoutUpperSusitnaandwithatendencytocentralizeRailbeltthermalgeneration,thetransmissionlossesmaybeconsiderablyhigherasdiscussedlaterinSection3.2.8.3.2.5ConstructionScheduleConstraintsDuetotheleadtimesnecessaryforthepermitprocessesanqconstruction,generatingunitandsiteselectionmusttakeplaceanumberofyearsinadvance21 oftheforecasteddatewhentheunitscommercialoperationwillberequired.Forcoal-firedthermalplants,thePacificNorthwestUtilitiesConferenceCommitteeestimatesa62month(5.2years)perloafromfinalsiteselectionto.commercialoperationforplantsinthe500MWandhigherrangebasedonrecentU.S.experience.AlthoughindividualthermalplantcapacitiesappropriatetoAlaska'sloadsaresomewhatsmallerandmayrequirelessfielderectionwork,theconstructionseasonisshorterandthe5to6yearschedulingperiodappearsreasonable.ForthepotentialUpperSusitnahydroelectricprojects,thescaleofeffortismoredemandingandincreasedsiteevaluationisnecessary.CurrentunderstandingisthattheWatanaDamandpowerplantcouldbebroughttocommer-cialoper~tionby1994,followedbyDevilCanyonnosoonerthan1998..AtransmissioninterconnectiDnbetweenAnchorage-CookInletandFairbanks-TananaValleycouldbebroughtintoservicepriortocompletionofWatana,possiblyasearlyas1986.Theload/resourceanalysistechnologyrecognizestheaboveschedulecon-straintsbynotallowingcallupofnewgenerationortransmissioncapacitythatcouldnotbemadeavailable.3.2.6PlantAvailabilityConstraintsGeneratingandtransmissionplantavailabilitycanbeexpressedintermsofmaximumandminimumplantutilizationfactors(PUF).Thesefactorsareprimarilydependentuponplant-typeandplantage.Forpurposesofthisanaly-..siswehaveassumedthefollowingeconomicfacilitylifetimesafterwhichthefacilityisretiredfromservice.(l)YearsCoal-FiredThermalGeneration35Oil-FiredSteamGeneration"35Gas-FiredCombustionTurbine20Oil-FiredCombustionTurbine20HydroelectricGeneration50(1)SeeTables3.4and3.5fordatesofexpectedretirementsforexistingsystems. Duetothenatureofthesystem,someplantscouldberetiredfromservicepriortotheexpirationoftheireconomiclife.Inactualpractice,however,itisexpectedthatutilitiesmayelecttoretaintheunitsonstandby.Inordertoassuretheiravailabilityinemergencies,theutilitieswillperiodi-callyoperatetheunitstomakesuretheyareinworkingcondition.Experiencehasshownthat'largethermalplantsexperiencealearningcurveduringthefirstfewyearsofoperationas"bugsllareworkedout.Oncepast..thisperiodtheyreachamaximumthatallowsforscheduledmaintenanceandreplacementconductedduringtheoff-peakseason.Towardtheendofthe,economiclife,increasedfrequencyanddurationofoutagesformaintenanceusuallyoccurandthemaximumplantutilizationfactordeclines.Forpurposesofthisanalysis,wehaveassumedconstraintsonthemaximumPUFfornewcoal-firedsteamelectricplantsas~howninFigure3.4.807060c::ol-UL:E50:z:o-!<40N-....l-l-:::l30l-:z:<:....l0..2010oo51015202530PLANTAGE(YEARS)35FIGURE3.4.PlantUtilizationFactorversusPlantAge23 OthertypesofgeneratingcapacityareallowedtorunattheirmaximumPUFfromthestart.Fornewcapacityandmosttypesofexistingcapacity,thefollowingmaximumPUFsareassumed:MaximumPlantUtilization(%)Hydro50.0SteamElectric75.0CombustionTurbine50.0Diesel10.0Hydroelectricgenerationsystems,asaresultoftheirstorageabilityandconservativeratings,canmakeadaitionalpoweravailableforpeakinganditisassumedtheycanbescheduledat115%ofdesigncapacityforthisservice.AspointedoutearlierinSection3.1,thepeakdemandduringthewinterusuallydeterminestheamountofgeneratingcapacityrequiredratherthantheannualenergy.Becauseofthis,somegeneratingunitsareutilizedatlessthantheirmaximumannualplantutilizationfactors.Thedecisionastowhichunitsshouldnotbeloadedisusuallybasedonthemargincostofoperatingthefacilities.Inthisanalysisitisassumedthatdieselcapacityhasthehighestmarginoperatingcostfollowedbycombustionturbines,steamturbinesandhydroelectriccapacityinthatorder.ItisassumedthatdieselPUFscanbereducedto0.0whilethePUFsforcombustionturbineandsteamelectriccapacityisnotallowedtogobelow10%.Transmissionplantavailabilityisgenerallynotasscheduleconstrainedasaregeneratingplantswiththeirlongleadtimes.Forpurposesoftheseanalyses,theinterconnectionbetweentheAnchorage-CookInletareaandtheFairbanks-TananaValleyareawillbeprovided3yearsbeforethe~ompletionoftheWatanadamorwhentheHealy1(existing25MW)andHealy2(planned100MWnet)plantsbecomefullyloaded,whicheveroccursfirst.(2)Thisassumptionineffectplacesoil-firedplantsservingtheareaonstandbyafterthatdate..(2)Itwillprobablybedesirabletoprovideatleastaportionoftheinter-connectionpriortoWatanadateon-lineasasourceofpowerforconstruction.24 3.2.7EconomicGeneratingUnitSizeTheselectionofoptimumgeneratingsizecanbeacomplexprocessinvolv-inguncertainassumptionsregardingprobabilityoffutureloadgrowthpaths,desirabilityofsizingindividualunitsincomparablesizesandtypesforeachofmaintenance,assuringthatsystemreliabilityisnotpenalizedbyadditionoftoolargeasingleunit,smoothingofconstructionschedulesforpossiblemultiunitplants,andmaintainingassmallaspossibledeparturefromthedesiredreliabilitymargin.Afulloptimizationdoesnotappearwarrantedatthisstageandisbeyondthescopeofthisanalysis.Thusforthepurposesofthisstudy,thefirstsixcoal-firedsteamelectricplantsintheFairbanks-TananaValleyareaareassumedtobe100MWuni~s.Anyadditionalunitsareassumedtobe200MWunits.IntheAnchorage-CookInletareathefirstfivecoal-firedsteamelectrlcplantsareassumedtobe200MWunits,whileanyadditionalplantsareassumedtobe400MWunits.These.sizeranges,thoughprobablynotexactoptimums,appearreasonableblocksizesforintroductionandtypicallybecomefullyloadedatabout10%ofplantlife.3.3SYSTEMCONFIGURATIONS:DEFINITIONOFCASESANALYZED3.3.1Case1:WithoutInterconnectionandWithoutUpperSusitnaProjectThebasecaseconsistsofpowersupplytotheAnchorage-CookInletandFairbanks-TananaValleyonanoninterconnectedbasis.Inthisinstance,nopowerisavailablefromtheUpperSusitnaproject.FuturecapacityadditionsfortheAnchorage-CookInletloadcenterareassumedtobenear-mine-mouthcoal-firedunitslocatedonthewestsideofCookInletwithanominal50-miletransmissiondistanceusingtwo345kVcircuitswithacapacityof1600MW.Capitalcostofthistransmissionsystemis$228millioninOctober1978prices.FurthercapacityadditionsfortheFairbanks-TananaValleyloadcenterareassumedtobecoal-firedunitswithanominal100-miletransmissiondistance.TheHealysiteisusedasaproxyrecognizing,however,thatthePreventionofSignificantDeterioration(PSO)provisionsoftheCleanAirActmaypreclude25 thesitingofadditionalplantsbeyondtheplannedHealy2100MWunit.A230kVsinglecircuitwilltransmitupto400MWanda230kVdoublecircuit,800MW.Capitalcostsare$44millionand$70million,respectively.Table3.9providesasummaryofthetransmissionsystemalternatives.AmapoftheRailbeltregionshowingtheWatanaandDevilCanyondamsites,apossibleroutefortheinterconnection,andtheBelugaarea'ispresentedinFigure3.5.3.3.2Case2:WithInterconnection,WithoutUpperSusitnaProjectInthecaseofaninterconnectedsystemwithouttheUpperSusitnaprojectandallnewcapacitycoalfired,theload/resourceanalysisisnotasstraight-forwardinthatitisnotreadilyapparentwhatstrategyforsitingplantsshouldbefollowed.Twoprimaryoptionsareapparent:1.Allcoalplantssitedatasinglelocation{l)(ConcentratedSiting).Advantagesa)Lowercapitalandoperatingcostsforgeneration.b)Economiesofscalecanbeachieved.c)Sitingproblemsintheinteriormaybeavoided.Disadvantagesa)Highertransmissionlosses(andcosts)areincurredforthefractionofpowerflowingtotheFairbanks-TananaValleyloadcenter.Thesecostsmaycanceloutsavingsfromtheadvantages.b)Thelatterareabecomesstronglydependentuponreliabilityofthetransmissionsystem--possiblytothepointofrequiringasecondcircuitormaintenanceofadditionalstandbycombustionturbinecapacity.c)Anyadverseenvironmentaleffectsarebornebyasingleareanotnecessarilybenefitinginproportion..CoalPlantsSitedinProportiontoRelativeLoadGrowth(DistributedSiting).Forthepurposesofthisanalysis,mine-mouthlocationatBelugaisusedasaproxy.26 TABLE 3.9.Transmission System Alternatives(l) Approx. Capacity Capacity Investment Location Circult MW Loss %Cost -$MM $/~ Isolated Load Centers Healy -Fairbanks 100 mil es 230 kV Single 400 6 44 110 230 kV Double 800 6 70 88 Beluga -Anchorage 100 mil es 345 kV Single 400 2 114 285 800 3 114 142 N Two 345 kV Single 800 2 228 285 .......1600 3 228 142 Interconnected Without Susitna Anchorage -Healy 200 miles 230 kV Single 200 6 88 293 300 8 88 225 345 kV Single 400 3 228 570 560 5 228 407 Interconnection With Susitna 1573(2)5 471 (299 ) --- (1)Source:Alaska Power Administration (2)Actual peak power availability could be about 15%higher or 1808 MW. ALASKAPOWERADMINISTRATIONFIGURE3.5.RailbeltRegionShowingtheWatanaandDevilCanyonDamsites,aPossibleRoutefortheInterconnection,andtheBelugaArea28 29Advantagesa)Theinterconnectionbecomeslightlyloaded,thusreducingtransmissionlossestosomedegreealthoughcharginglosseswouldcontinue.b)Transmissioninterconnectionreliabilitydependenceisreducedastheintertieassumesmoreofacapacityreservecharacteristic.c)Environmentalburdensaredistributed,possiblywithmoreequity.Disadvantagesa)Possibleeconomiesofscalearelost.b)GenerationcostsintheFairbanks-TananaValleyareincreased.c)Sitingproblemsrelatedtometeorologicalconsiderationsmayresultinthelatterarea.Inthisreportcoalplantsareassumedtobesitedinproportiontotherelativeloadgrowthsofthetwoloadcenters.AswithCase1,additionalcoal-firedgeneratingunitsaresitedatBelugatoservetheAnchorage-CookInletareaandatHealy/NenanatoservetheFairbanks-TananaValleyareas.Thetransmissioninterconnectionisusedforcapacityreserveallowingthereservemarginforbothloadcenterstobereducedfrom25%to20%(seeSection3.2.3).Underthisscenariothereisnonetenergytransferduringanysingleyear.Ifoneloadcenterislowoncapacitytheotherloadcenterprovidestheadditionalcapacityrequiredassumingithasasurplus.Ifnosurplusexiststheoriginalloadcentermustaddcapacity.$TheinterconnectionisassumedtobebroughtonlineinthesameyearastheHealy2coalplantbecomesfullyloadedandnewgeneratingcapacity~ouldberequiredintheFairbanks-TananaValleyarea.Additionoftheinterconnec-tionallowstheFairbanks-TananaValleyareatogetcapacityreservefromtheAnchorage-CookInletArea.ThisallowstheFairbanksareatopostponetheconstructionofadditionalcapacityby2to6yearsdependinguponthescenario.Inthehighloadgrowthcasetheinterconnectionwouldbecompletedin1986,inthemediumloadgrowthcaseitwouldcomeonlinein1989,andinthelowloadgrowthcaseitwouldcomeonlinein1994.Inallcases45%ofthecostoftheinterconnectionisassignedtotheFairbanks-TananaValleyloadcenter. 303.3.3Case3:InterconnectedSystemWithUpperSusitnaProjectBecauseofreservoirfillingrequirementsitisassumedthatbothdamswilltake2yearstoreachfullcapacityandpoweroutput.Thecapacities,powerproductionandplantutilizationfactorsforthetwodamsareshowbelow.50.050.0302034106897782+WatanaCapacityEnergyUtilizationYear(MW)(MMkWh)(%)17~308050.02+795348050.0DevilCanyonThepoweroutputofthetwodamsisdividedbetweenthetwoloadcentersinproportiontotheirrelativeenergyconsumptionin1994.Thisresultsinthepercentagedivisionsshownbelow.Forthemediumandhighloadgrowththetransmissioninterconnectionisassumedtocomeonlinein1989and1986respectively;thesameyearsasforCase2.Inthelowloadgrowth·scenariotheinterconnectioncomesonlinein1991ratherthan1994.ThisearliercompletiondatewillallowtheWatanadamconstructionsitetobesuppliedwithpowerfromeithertheAnchorage-CookInletareaortheFairbanks-TananaValleyarea.Inadditiontotheinterconnectiondescribedintheprevioussection,Case3includestwohydroelectricgeneratingfacilities.TheWatanadamisscheduledtocomeonlinein1994.Thedateisassumedtobethesameforallthreeloadgrowthscenarios.TheDevilCanyondamisassumedtocomeonlineassoonasrequiredfollowing1994butnotbefore1998.Itisassumeditwouldtakeatleast4yearstocompletetheDevilCanyondamfollowingcomple-tionoftheWatanadam.ItturnsoutthattheDevilCanyondamisrequiredin1998inthemediumofhighloadgrowthscenariosbutnotuntil1999inthelowloadgrowthscenario. LoadGrowthAnchorage-Fairbanks-ScenarioCookInletTananaValleyLow80%20%Medium81%19%High84%16%3.4RESULTSOFLOAD/RESOURCEANALYSESUsingthemethodologyoutlinedinSection3.1andtheassumptionsexplainedinSection3.2,aseriesofload/resourceanalyseswereperformed.Aspotntedoutearlier,threebasiccaseswereevaluated:Case1Case2Case3Alladditionalgeneratingcapacitybeyondutilityplansassumedtobecoal-firedsteamturbineswithoutatransmissioninterconnectionbetweentheAnchorage-CookInletareaandtheFairbanks-TananaValleyarealoadcenters.Alladditionalgeneratingcapacitybeyondutilityplansassumedtobecoal-firedsteamturbinesincludingatransmissioninterconnection.Alladditionalgeneratingcapacitybeyondutilityplansassumedtobecoal-firedsteamturbinesbutincludingtheUpperSusitnaproject(includingatransmissionintertie)comingonlinein1994.Foreachofthesethreecases.Threeloadgrowthscenarios(low,mediumandhigh)areevaluatedresultinginatotalofnineload/resourceanalyses.TheassumptionsdiscussedinthischapterareincorporatedinacomputermodelcalledAEPMOD.TheoutputofAEPMODforCasesassumingthemediumloadgrowthscenarioispresentedinTable3.10.TheresultsofallninecasesarepresentedinAppendixC.TheAEPMODcomputercodeispresentedinAppendix8andthedatabasenecessarytomaketherunsispresentedinAppendixA...Thecapacityadditionscalledupinthevarl0UScasesarepresentedinTables3.11,3.12and3.13.TheresultsoftherunsaresummarizedinFigures3.6through3.11.31 TABLE3.10.Load/ResourceBalanceforCase3:MediumloadGrowthScenar;io--...._---_._~.+---•><"A:.NCI1t1IH"e:ANCrlU'IAl:of.CAS!:.:~--MEDIuMLUADGkUwfl1l"rl:.~TIl:.lEAH:1'1<;0.t.O·TES:Ol:..C.bf1971:1..1U.S.-19911.C~ITICALf'E"IU D-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------I19/3-1979I1979-190<)I1980-1'181IPEAl(",PilI'APuFe:r;EkGYIPEAI\,,",pUfAPUFEiIlEkGTI"'1::41\!-It'uFVUFEf'l:.WGy1--------------1-:'------------1-----------------------------1IIkE'lUli<l:.MI::'.TSI585.2531.I632.2801.Ib80..301l1.---------------1IIkE5UU"(.ESIIIEXI5r1'.&III"ru..·uI53..::.0.50..Oll.I53..50.5<)204.I53..50.50201l•;;;fi:A"'/f.Ll:.CI'H..75•75.332•I51.•75.75332.I51•.75 .75.5.$2•cO,.'l.rU';I:lINEI57'5..:'0.'402034.I57'S.•50.3&1010.I6119..50.35211.3•01":;£LI19..15.00U.I1'1..15•00O.I1"..IS.00(I•IIITOTALI098.2509.Ib98.2340.IIH2.2b1l9.IIIAtJIllIIlmsIIINTVW>jIII:'Tl:..4M/ELECIIICl,n".filI<I;I',EII114..50•50497•I100..::'0.50438.tJItSELIIIIIIRlTIkE"EiHSIII"Tlin!;III~ji::A·HELECIIICO"8.fUrlrlWEIII1J1l:.5E:LIII2..1l0.00O.III---------------1II"ROSSlIESOUi<CESIb98.2509.I812.2843.I910.30117.IIICAP"Es.rURuilu0.193/.0.2611Iu.3et>IIIkE:iE."vE.rlEfJ.II""•.I1511.I172.IIIL05St.SI2'1.38.I32.1I2.I3".~o.III,~Ej"E::.OU>'IcESI52.3.2531.In22.21101.I7011.30"1.IIITRAz..."rlO"EOIO.IO.IO.IIIIIISURPLUSI-..~.O.I-10.O.I18.O.P~AI\--PtAKLOAO/GENE..ATINuCAPACITYWEyUlRIOMENTS(MEGA~ArTS)"'I'llI'--MAXIMUMPLAN!UfILIZATIONFACrORAl'uF--ACTUALPLANluTILIZATIONFACTO"ENE~GY--GENtRATION/ANNUALEUE..GY"E~UIWEM~NTSIMILLION~OFKILU~ArT-"UU"~)32 .._--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------/1'I(iI-l'17'i/1.7'1-1980/l'illll-l'H;~/PEAKy,PUFAPUFE/.ERGY/I'£AK,",PUFAPUFENeRGY/PI::AK",puFApuFENEtlGV/--------------/--------------/-------_.....--...---------------///i-:E.••HJlxt~t.Nr5/184.81)4./1'17.8b2.I2119.'lIb.---------------/'"/I><El>nu"CF.::l//IIOxI:,T",&///NYU}?O/O..so.50O./O..50.50il./O..50.500.:,Il:.A'··/ELEC/1111..1S.bb033./110..7':>.72b"<I./11O..1':>.1':>1~3.CU'"".fUR:;(,.E/20'1.•50.1018S.I20'1..~o•1018S./2119•.50.112C7•Ult::>EL/4"..10 .00O.I4b..10 .00V.I4c...111.000.//ITUTAL/3e5.81b./3&5.815./3b5.'1311./I/AUO(TTn/,s///i'1(UklJ/I/sr"AM/l'L£C///,(!.;~.ru~dINe:///;;P:.SE.L//I//IliETI"C::'<IOIHS//IJ"tl'vRu//II>I!:.A:~/!:.LEC//ICO·.o.Tlik'll'i'///OI£,ELII///I---------------/II(,KUS:'i<ESlJlJ>tCES/3&:5.81b./3b5.87S./3&':>.'130.//ICAPwe5.MARGI'"~0.'1113IO.ll,:>cI0.140///i<E:>E.';'1t:RE'J./'lb.I4'1.I52.///l.(j:'~~S/'i.12./10.U./10.1<1.///',E;k"SOURCES/3111.804./30n.802./302.'lIb.///fi'A'iSI'E><E.O/o./O./O.////IISuwPLUS/120.o./109.O.I93.O.PEAKPEAr(l.OAU/GENt:tlAT1NGCAPACITYHEaUlNEMENTS(MEG4~ATTSJ>11'111"MAXIMUM"LANTUTa,HATlONFACTOkAl-uFACTUALPLANTUTlLLZAflONFACTO>tEI<F.llGY--GEN~RATION/4NNUALENEKGYwEuUIHEMENTS(MILLION$01"KII.OWATT-hOUllS)..CRIrICAl.TABLE3.10.AntA:l'''ll<''AN~SFAI~8AN~SCASe:2--~EOIUMLUADGRowTHT;.rE.~1H.YEAR:19"0.NOTE8:Uec.0,1978~/U.S.-I"•••33(contd)I'ER I()0 34o.20..·.•923.co'H.O.j7b1.3<117..50 .50.15.<12•SO.jS.15.UO.00.Oll1903-19i1',",PUFA"'uFo.ll.9/.53•2'51•(191.15.IIPEAl(/------IItl51l.//III///I1210./////IIII//III/1202.I/0.'1111II21:5.II//947.IIIIO./o.o.53.3,;)<!1.204.332.22Su.O.2'llS.35711.PE.1<1I UU(contd).7':>.20.50.5.0.00 .00.00 .00•50.50. •7'5.7'5.50•.52.1~.0019l12-1983I-WtlF"''''uFo.IS.2.53.'51.b07.17.C"ITICAL.I/PEAl(1------//79'5.////I///I4<!8.///I20U./100.II/IIIII/I'1210•./I0.523II19'1./II/972.IIIIO.I177.32tH.333u.j2S1..;'0.50.::>0.50.7'5.7'5.;'0.,59.15.0019"1-1'182",PuFAPVFIll.3'.53.51.71l9.11.TABLE3.10.A"fA:Ar-eMu"A..EA'lr:rlnl<IA(;FC":it"t~--MEIHIlI'!LUAUGIW"TI1I~TewII~YEAR:1990.~OTES:CtC.b,1970~/U.S.-1994.TOIAl.ACDITIC)"SI1Y\Jkf)sTEA,HFLECca',,,.IU>/;:IPll::vIl:.S!L.RETiReMENTSHYU"');,H.·""l:.t.ECCO'"'il.Tu"'''INl:.uTESEL.TRAIiSFEREUL.USStS~EAI(PEA~L.OAO/G"NERATINGCAPACITYWEYUIREMENTS(MEGA"ATTSJ"'PilI'MAXIMuMPL....NTUTILIZAIIONF...CTO"APUFACTUAt.~L.ANrUrIL.IZATIONPACIUNEMERr,y--G~lieNATluN/ANNUALENERGYkEUUINEMENrS(MILL.IONSOFKILOWArT-hOU~$)//PEAl(/---------------------/"Euul~E.tNT3/7111.---------------/wESQuac!sI·e:xI;,Tp,r,rrlYiJilOIST"AM/ELEe/COt·Hi.lu",HNE/oIl:.SEL/I/'110./I//I/IIIII//---------------/bKOSSRESOu"CES/928./CAP"£S.MARGINI0.252I/:~';..I/I~e:TRESOURCES/70~.II/II-3';.\ TABLE3.10.(contd)~lIeA:FA!"oAN",5rAIII'\A/;"'SCAS,,:2--MEDIUMLUAOGRCl"'IHINIE.RTIl:.TE.Ak:19'10.tHJIE5:UI:.C.b,19/0;,1U.5.-19911.Ck1T1CAlf't.IIIU0-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------I19l11-1<;82I1'/62-1'/83I1963-1'1114IPE~I\""'lJFAf'uFE••EkGYIpt.AK"'1'1,1'",pUFelir;RGTIPEAKMpUF~pUFeNr;"GY/--;------------/--------------1------.-.--_._----------------///"E"I'{"eMt.rHSI2~1.'/70.I233.102'<.I2115.1078.---------------1//"1:.::'uu><CESI/IE~ISTl;.GII/"YvROIO..50•::.u1I./u..50.50O.Io..::;0.50o•:H!'.AIo\/eLECI110.•75.75723.I110..75.75723./110..75.75723•CUM!>.!liRoI1,E/20'1.•50.11121>2./209..50.17317./2<1'1..50.21,511•nI"S"LI<lb.•10.~O(JO./Ill>..10..00O./41>..10.1>01>•IIITOfAL/31>5.9115./50S.10.3<;./31>5.111"1"._I//AOOlf[flNSIIIrtY\)l'(tJ//I~TEA-"F.LECI//(.u'·"'.TUl<d{NE/IIvlt:.SEL///I//"ETI>lEI-'€:NTS//IHfl/;tOI/ISTE."""ElECI//CQ"d.Ill""WEI/I5.•00.00O•vIt.ScLII,./I//---------------///bROS;;,i,eSOU'ICeSI3&5.9/l5.I305.103'1./31>0.1094./I/CAl'"E5.Iol.A><GINI0.b51/0.5&eo/0.4&1I/Ii<E"e"vt:"EO./55.I58.'Ib1.III1.0SS"S/11.15./12.-15.I12.lb.II/hETkES{JUkCESI2'1<;.9711.I2'15.102<1.I28b.101"•I//IkAt'SFeREOIu./O./O.I//'///SuRPLUS/78•.O./1>2.O./'ll.O.PEAKPeAIILOAU/Gt:NeRATlNG·C-AP.,o;C-irY.l'lE..UII'tl:;~tt'lr:;_(i'tfGA.."'frTS)·M~VFMAXIMUM?L~~TUfI1.IZ~TIONFACfO~......1)1'At;TuA1.PLANTUTILLZATIONfACr()~E~EkGY--Gl:Ne~ATIOH/ANNUALENl:"GYKEuut~tMtNI5(MILLIONSOFKILOWATT-hUU~~)35 TABLE3.10.(contd)A"t;A:4."C;1(;WAGEA'IC"OI<4I..EC45<.:c..1"E...dUM1.'1AOGo<uwTH1,;1flo/III:.H.AR:1'J911.rIOTE5:0E.C.0,I'll",,/U.5.-1994.C~ITI CAI.PEl<I0[)---------------.----------------------------------------------------------------.--------/19<14·na5/198:'·1980/190b-1901/PEA,(MPliF4PUFENERGY/PEAl<"'''UFAPUFENEIo/GY/PEAII"'''oFA"UFE1~EIo/r,y/--------------/----------.---/-------------.---------------/I/"Eilll!:<'::"E.,rs/qO".4001.I97b.11329./1048.111057.---------------1//..E;;()IJi<CES///EXI::>fI1lG///IiY\Jklj/53..50.50204./53..50.SO204./Uti..5<1•50510•::.TfA"l/El.fC/.2'51../5.5311btl./2'51..75.0'"1'105./45c•.75.'5<122~'l.CCl;·,.,.ruweHH::/';~3..50•.)42015./881)..50.2821110./IlS';)..SIl•201958•uH.SE:L/15..15.00O./15.•15.00O.I5 •.15•00O•///IOIAI./120e.3'11l2./le05.37211./11l5e.4727./IIAljOI TI[)".3//IHYuRn//;;1..50.50301./Sa.AM/E.I.E.C//207..75•203103•ICf)"'''.TuI<"WE/IIi..50.5079.//OI"Sl:.1./I////«lOrIRE'·'E"TS/I/,,1U1<0///:"TeA-i/l:.Ll:.C///CO"".Tu../.,If,E./15..UO.00O./31_.00.ClOO./ulE.SEI.I/10..00.00O.////---------------1//foIiUS::'",ESOUl'ICE511205_'lObI./1452_4394_/1452.4727./I/CAl'"ES.....ARGINI0.333/0.488/0.385//I..ESF."vE....E:J•/eeb.I2'"1./202_///LOSSI:.S/115.bOo/49_bS./5e_70.//I••fTkESOu~CES/q,ii_4001.I1159_11329_/1I38_4057.///T>lAhSFEilEi)/v_/0_/0_//////SuRPLUS/30.O./163.Q./90.O.PE.AKPeAII1.0AO/GENERATINGCAPACITYREUOlRE1"ENTS(MEGA~ATT~)NPUFMAXIMUMPLA~rUI[l.lIATI~NFACTUIiAPIlFACTUAl..!'LANTUTILIlATIO,..'f'~Cf(J""ENERGY--GENERATION/ANNUALENERGY~EOUIREMENTS(M[LLI0NSOFKILO~ATT-HOU~.36 TABLE3.10.(contd)""EA:F,I,Il<IjAIJK,SFAIk"AhK.SCASt:2--MEDIUMLOADGRuwTHINTERTIEYEAR:19~0.NuTES:DEC.b,1970w/U.S.-1994.C R I T.1CALPEl(1I)Du.1I.1011:1.25<1•O•12H..::>0.':>0';75.55•50.111•10.1I01Ql\b-I'Io]MPUFAPuFu.21u.204/It>£AI\/------//21:1&.II.I//I/Io•123'•313•O•//I17':1.I'./I///I/III1211./43b.//0.523/I72./11\./14./1193./350.I/o.I/O.//,4.1193.ENERGY•50.50•75.75•SO.18• 1II.00.7':>.201~t15-19ol>",PIJf"PUFo.1>2.o.110.20'1.22.//PE:.AK/------//272./////////33b.////lOu.///////O.////431>.//0.0(11//////35/1.////O./1]•u.723.420.u.1132.1132.ENErll.>Y.(10.00.::>0.::>0.75.(5•5u.2/1.10 .0019"4-I~R';>MPUFAPuFo.o.1.5.o.11().2(\'1.41>.258.///PEAl(/------ke::'OU>lCU>//wES••""RGIt,,//WEll.////l;ESOt)KCES//EK!::U///SURPLUS////////TPIAL////////IlkE",!:>;TS/"TuRdI'4/ELEC/• rURIJl:,EI//PEAKPEAKLOAD/GENEriATIUGCAPACITYHEUUIREkEhTSIMEGAaATTS)M"I/FMAXIMUMPLANTUTILIZ"IIONFACTORAPUfACTUALPLANTUTILIZATIONFACiO..E~EHGY--GtNeRATION/ANNUALENERGYREQUIHEMENTS(MILLIONSOFKILUWATT-HOURS)37 PEAK--PkAKLOAD/GENERATINGCAPACITYMEYUIREHENTS(MEGAwAfTSIMPuF--MAXIMuMPLA~TUTILIZATIONFACTURAI'IIF--ACTUALPl,.AtHuTlLIZATIOr.FACTuwENEHGY--G'NeRATlO~/ANr.UALENEl<GYHEDUIJoIEMENTSlMIl,.t..loNSOFKILOWATT~~OUHSj_._--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------/19i>7-19dd/IQdll-19d9/19,,'I-I'NI//~1:.A'(M~UFA"UFENEl<GY/Pl:.AKM?lH'APIlF~Nl:.>ltiY/?t:A....-1t>UF",l'\jFl::'It."tiY/--------------/------.-..-----/------____ow__---------------///l<~'JV.HEI1ENTS/112U.U965./119c!.!l31.5•/12b4.%41.---------------///,RE"Oul<CES//IEtI:'TF;bII/"YURII/13U..:::'u.:::'0510./134.~~n.50510./134..::>0.50510.:)H:,A"'/ELECIU5d.•75.0.5241.5.I04.5..75.~8325...It>4.5•.75,..003145.(;0,·101.Til"'"IIlEI,,5,)..50.24171lb.I855..5u•231021l./791•.::>0.21lqll.f;It.SELI5.•15-1.00O•/5..15.00U.I':l..15.(lvv.IIITOTALI11l52.4709.I1&37.5393./1573.5721>.///Au')1Ttu":!///rHr,RO'///:,Tt.AM/~.LEC/20IJ..75.20..5511.//(.I)l,,\,,_flj"tfilUEI/:"/vIC-SEt../II/I/;'<.Tlkt:-iErHS//It1'tUtU)///SH,~I"/ELi:CI15..(;0•00O•I/CO"'".TllwtJINE//04..00.00O./vl!:.S"LI//III---------------/IIr;lIoSSl<ESOlJIICES/Ib37•'5Ubli./1573.53'15./157.5.572b.///CJ.Pl<ES.HA"GIN/0.'102I0.320I0.245/IIl<fi>EkVEkEf;./28t,./29d./2S3.///.LOSSeSI50•7S./bO.80./0.5.!>S.///:,ETo<E50ui<CESIl..501.4965.I121b.531.5./laS7.5,,41.///H'A~'SFEHf.!J/O.IO./7.II/II/SUwPl,.tlS/1111.U.I2<1.O./O.O.CRITICALPE/(10 0(contd)38~HEA:AhCi10kAl>EANCriOkAl>ECA:il:.:<!--MEUlUMLUAUGJoIOWTHINTEHfI~YEAR:19QU.NUTES:OtC.b.197d~/U.~.-199U.TABLE3.10. TABLE3.10.(contd)AREA:FAI,;!'\ANI\SFAIi"lANI\SCASe::2--/o\EO!u~1.0AOGROWTHI..<TE.kIH.YE.AR:1'1'10.ioUTES:(It:.C.o.1'1111fI/U.S.-1'19'1..CRITiCAI-PERIu0-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------/1907-1'illll/19I1d-19119/1909-1990/PEAl<MPUFAPUFEilERGr/Pt.AKr-.PUFAPuFENEi<Gr/PEAl<MPUFA?UFEI;El<GY/--------------/--------------/------.----------------------///l<EljUI",<,.,,,!;.'irs/'soo.1315./31".137b./321l.1<137.---------------///;,ESO"RCES///E,d:.TV.C///.~"(UJotI)/U.•Sil.50O•/O••.50 .50O./0•..:.0.50O.sr"A''IeI.i:.C/clu.•is.be1139•/210..7S•ba11'14./..lb••75.ba12ao•ei);1M.i}JI.fbINE./20<1..S;)•11190./.2U4..50.to173•/20'1•.50.10170.u1t-SEt./22.•10.,.00O•/2Z..10.00O.IO.•10.011O•///PIlAt/'I3b._1.i35./'131>.1372./<119.1"59_///",unITIa'lS///rHv,;O///SI!:.A'"'/EI.l:.CII1<1..75•~O25•/CO'\-'&.Tu"';{i'tE///UI!:!;EI.//////R'::TIke"1ErlTS///,..Y;;rll)///SIt:.A-HfU:C//'I..00.00O./CO"'''.TIJ>(r>lNE///iJlf:.SEI.//22..00_00O.////---------------///(,RU5S"ESl.lU"ICES/IUb.1335./'11'1.1397_/<11'1.1459~///CA"..'::5."AHeIN/a_liS../0.334/0.U7///"ESEwVEREu./75./79._/bo.I//I-OSSES/15.20./10_21./lb.22.///"ETI<fSOli"CESI3<10_1315_/325.137b./'s37.1437.///TRAN"FER€OII)•/O./-7.////I/SUl'Ilo'l.lJSI'lb.O./11.O./c.O.PEAKPEAKI-OAO/GENE"ATINGCAPACITY~€QUiKEMENTS(~EGAnATTS)!"PUFMAXlMUMPI.ANTUTIl.lZATIONFACTOl<A~UFACTuA~PI.ANTUTIl.iLATIUNFA~TOKE~ERGY--GaNekAT10N/ANNUAI.EIoErlGYREQu!REMENTS(MILI.IUNSOFKI~OnArT-HOUWS)39 TABLE3.10.(contd)A><EA:A....ChOWAI.1EA".C"OIHGECA::i.C.:2--MEDIUMl.llAllGRU",THII;TERIII:.YEAR:19<;0.NuTES:OC:C.o.1'I7/J'tilU.S.-l9911.CRITICAl.Pt.RI00--------------._-------------------------------.-----------------------------------------I19'10-1991I1991-1992I19'12-1'193/PEAl(>lI'UFAPUFE;;Ef<GY/PEAKMPUFAPUFENERGY/PEAKMPUFApUFENERGY/--------------/--------------/----------._-----------------///,;euuIi<E.ME,.TS/13S7.01103./1'1'50.&4<3">./1543.09117.---------------//IkE:lO.H'CES/IIE.~I:..TING/II"YlJk,J/1311..50.~OSIll./134..50.50510./134..50•50510•STEA'<tEl.£C/0'13.•7'5•713900•I843•.75.&54552.I1045.•75.50510"•CO"',,.TU",,,If."/791..~O•19.1'508./791••50.1&10<15•/773..50•1003<4•Uli:.:'U,I5.•15•00O•I5•.15.00O.I3..15•00O•/I/TOlAl./1573.5804./1713.&I57.II'1SS.0310.II/ADOI TIO!,SIIIHYUW'O///SIU..t/el.fC/20u.•75•2U350.I2113•.75.201125•/'lOll.•75.20701•CO·~<l.TlJ"'"I"E/IIUlt-SEL//I//IRfT1Rl:.'~E."TS/I/kYuwjj//I~Tc.A4t"LI:.CI/III..ou.00Il./L[",lto.fu';;'INtI/10..00•00Il.I;;0•.00.00o•DIE:>ELII2•..00•vOO.III/---------------/I/GROSS~E:>Ou...CE:;11773.1>154.I1955.I>S8C./2300.7011.I/ICAP"E.S.MAHGIfl/0.307/0.349/0.1194/I/><ESE"v!:RED./271.I290./309.III...'JSS':SIboo91./73.97.I77•10'1.II/~.ET"E.SQuRCESI143~.1>01>3.I1593.0485.I1920.o9Q7.IIIT"AN5FE.~E.U/O.I-2<1.I-Cli.IIIIIISulolPLUSI77.O.I1111.O.I269.O.~tAKPEAKLOAO/Gt~ERATINbCAPACITYkE.QUIRE~ENTSIMEGAhATTS)'.PllFMAXIMUMPLANfUfIL(lArIONFACTllWA~UFACTUALPLA~TuTILIlATIUNFAcrUNENEHGY--G,NtRATIOH/ANNUALE••ERGYREaUIkEMENTS(MILLIOHSOFKILO~ATT-HOUNS)40 TABLE3.10.(contd)A~e:,,:FAT;'.."NI\SFAI~ij"NKSCAS~:a--~EOIUMLOADGROwTHIhTERTIEfEAR:1990.NUTES:UEC.b.1'178NIU.S.-1994.C.;ITICAI.PERIuD..~--------------I~,..uSS,';ESlJu~CESI4\<j.,•ItA~MES.MARGINI0.a22I~ESEkVEKEa.I69.I~OSSE~I17.I~ET.;ESOuRCESI333.ILUAl,sfe.Hl:.OIII.IISuRPLUSI-III.o.lb41.1&41..UU.00.50.50.7':>.71.';0.23.1<).1101992-1'1'13"'''uFAPuFII.75.IIPEAK1:.-----II374.IIIIIIV.III419.IIIIIIIIIIIIIII.57'1.II0.013IIIIIIa8&.IIIIO.Io.Ie/H•313•1573.1';73.1597.1591.Ei'<E"GY.50.5u.75.bB•50.18.1U.0019'11-1'1'12MPUF"PuFO.72.III'EAK1------II358.IIIIIIIII41'1.IIIIIIIIIO.IIIIIISell.,I111'1•.II0.1.70IIIIII330.IIIIo.I1505.1505.o•117a.300.o..15.20.00.ilO•50.SO•/5.13.50.17.10.001'1'10-1'1'1\...PUF"puF3a.TOUI.AUUI TIor.3HYUr<O:'TtAIol/EI.ECtll;.!H.TUWIiINf.l.:ItSEL1<1:.rll-1lM~NT:;"'YIi';'OSTe...M/ELECC(I~fi.TU,{i'irI.E;:,!l:SELIII'EAI\1---------------------1kEUU1~E~~NrsI343.---------------1,~E50URCESIE.(I~TII!f.l',,'fUkUISTEA>!/t:LECI(0;';0.TtlR6Il.E>I(.1I,,5EI.III41'1.IIIIIIIIIIIIPEAK--PE""L.OAD/GE~RAH1'Il>C...PACITYi<EQIJIRE1'<EN.TS(MEGA",.nS)"'!'lJF--p.<"XIMUMPI.ANTUTII.IZATIONFACTURAPuF--ACTUAL.PI.ANTUTll.IZATION~ACTuHE~,£ii(GY--GENt.RATIONIANNUAl.ENERGYI<EQUIRe.Me.~I:lOHI.UONS\}FKll.OWATT-,iUUIlS)41 TABLE3.10.(contd)M'L~:AI~.CnCt}(.1bEA-.Cri(Ji;Al>ECAsi:.:2--MEDIUMLOADGoHuVlTHItHERTItYEAI<:19'10.NuH.S:Dl:.C.b,1970"'/U.S.-1994.C"ITIC..I.PE"IUD-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------/1993-1994/1994-1995/1995-1990/PEAo<I'puFAPUrENEloIGY/PEAK"'f'IIF..puFENEflGY/P~AI("'''uFAPuftNEflGY,/--------------1--------------I-~---------------------------11/"E.l.ilJI",,-1!:"ffS111>31>.7329.11129.7751.11054.1'l311~---------------11/"E:>0':'1CE5///EAI"T!'IG///"Yvill)/134.•~O.~o'i10•I134..~{J.50510./1"12..50.'::>0-Sul~.::'H...M/F'LE.C/14'1':>..7<;.~Ui>S4S./1'145..15.34th~ob./144':>..7'5.3&4/,1'1•C;)"B.ilJRBI/oE/724.•50•10Sl$O•/009..50.105Elb./bb....50.10471.·vIE<;,.L/3..15.OuO./J..15.00O./3..IS.00O.///TUTAL/230b.7u-S'I./2251.53b2./2909.•010b.///AUDITTONSI/Il'iytJk(JI./o5tt..~o•~O2':>0:>•/do..50•5u-Sc')•STt.A'.IE.LEe///CU"'o.fuwIjINE///u1tSELr/1//1RETIi<t:r>1E.NTSI//·t1'tu~u11/;;H.A..1/ELEC//1CUr'd.1<110/;;{NEI55..vO.00U.//125•..00.00u.UII,.:il:.1..I/////--------------1//G"03'::';;'ESflIfRCES/"'<'51.7'l3'7~/2"10"1.7a07./2KTt."'db~I//CoAf'"ES."'A"GIN/0.370/0.b82/0.5116///l<ESEt<vE:"Et;.I321./S40./3'7t./1/1.05;;<:5I1'>2.110.1I'lb.llb./93.125.I,//I,ETi<t.50uRCESI11\42.1329./a470.1751./2407.0311.///lXAN::,Fl;R€lJ/-\07./O./O./J1/I/SUilPLlJSI'19.O.1747•.O./553.U.PtAKP€A~~UAO/GENE~AliNGCA~AC11YHt~UIHE.M~NTS{MEbAWAITS)MP~fMAXIMUMPI..ANTul~LI2AII~NFACTuRAPUFACTuA~PLANtUT1LI2...T10NFACTUMtNEHGT--GEN~NATION/ANNUA~ENENGYwEpUINtM€NTS{MILLIONSUFKILUWATT-HOUN'::')42 TABLE3.10.(contd)ARI;:4:FAI"'fl"I;,,~FAlR'i4N~SCASt:2--MELilu,",LOAIIC;!,/Ui'tTHINTEfHll:.~EAR:19'10.NOTES:O"C.0,1978.~/U.S.-l'l'lll•CR1T1C...Li'l:.RILiU---------------------------------------.-------------------------------------------------I19'13-1994/1991+-1995/1995-1991>/Pt,..,("WuFA"uFEI~ERGY/PEAK",PUFAPUFE/;ERGY/PI:....KHPUFA?IlFENER"~/----------_...._-/------.-------/-----------------------------///t<l;.Wlkl:....l:.I.;S/.11;'1.170'1./1105.1771./"<3.1c~~.---------------i//I<E~uu"CF.S///EXI~T1."(,///liYUkfJ/II..50•SOo./O..•50.50O./1Sl..::'0.50~7q•S;C:A:Vl:.LEC/2tb",.15.73'1377./21b..75•5810db./21b•.75.b31053.CO..';.TU'1bI/.E/101+..SO•25357•/11>1+._•50.101113./11>4..::'0.101"3•uleS'.l../O..10..00o./.IJ'..10•00O./O•.10.00o.///TO[AL'/37'1.1735./..-379.122'1./::'30.1770./1/,lUll1flU"S///HYVr<U./../151..50•50571+•/19..50.::'07"•:>TC.A'-t/ELIoCI//2':>..75.201+3.CIlM"!.Til"'"Ir,!::///OH:.:>C:!.///I//ill:.TlRl:.:~l::'1TS//1"l'Ur1tlI1/'-"Tt::A.../ELEC/1125..00.00u.CO"''''.T'lf./"INEI/1OIc.;'EL11fI11---------------1/1GkUS~i<F.:;OlJt<CESI!>7'1.1735./530.1804./S1+9.18ll7.//ICAPi<es."IARGINI-O.02b10.30810.2'18//1"'l:.~t::r"VEkey.I7d.181.18':>.IIILo,;ses119.2b./20.27.I21.28./'/It..Er><ESUlJRCESI21\2.1709./'12'1.1777.I114!>.1<1:>'7./II[kA'jSFEREUI107./O./O.I/II1ISURPLUS/O.O.I211.O./20.u.PEAKPI:.AKl..DAU/Gl:.NER...TINGCAPACITY~EWUIREMENTS(MEGA~ATTS)HPuFM~IIMUMPL"'NIUTILIZAIIONFACTURAPUFACTUAl..Pl..ANTUIILIZATIONFACTUME~Ef./GY--GlNlRAIIUN/ANNUALENERGYkEQUIREMENTS(MILLIONSOFKILU~ATT-~uUN~J4-3 TABLE3.10.(contd)"IoIEA:A",CI10I'iAbEANCHlIIoIAt.ECA:ir.:2--,'1EOIuM1.0AOGkCJ...1H!NTEIHIc.TEA":19..0.N\JTES:OiiC.0,1..,11../U.5.-1994.CI<!T1CAI.PER100-----------------------------------------------------------.-----------------------------/1"90-19'j.]/1991-1998/1998-1999/!'''AI<",!'UFAj>\JFENEIo/IHIPEAKM"UFAPUFENEl'lGY/Pt....""'»UFAPUFEHEHGY/--------------/------___0#____/-----------------------------1/IIoIE.UU1Io1E"'I:.IH:l/1'179.1I1171./2103.94.51./22211.Q'l<jl.---------------1//FlE:iOURCE5I//EXY:>TI.-Hi/I/"'YI,>FlO/d7a..::'0•503.3'14./1I1d..50.5033'1'1.I1:>78..SO.50.3,5'1'1•~H.AI~/ELECI144'>..1S•'12-'),500•I1'1'15..1S•475'd4•I14'1'>..1S.32"v2':>.CO:.".Tu""(llE/5'1S.•::'0.1029<1•/33S..SO•1029'1•/335..50,,10275.OIl:.SEL/j...1S•00O•/u..15•00O•/O..15.00V./I/lOCAL/2811.911"'1.I20:....9S72./20S9.71>.::8.///AOf)lTllINS///"'UIolOIII,,5<1..51l•5024..3•.!)TEA"1/ELECII/f;U"'''.Tu><"!NE./I/isIi.Se.l.-///II/1oIt:T1!'/t:I~ENTSI//I1YUl<O///;"!:A"/ELEC///CCJM«.IIJ'I:lIkEI210..00.00O.IIHI..00.00O.011:."!:L/2.-.vO.00O./////---------------1//(;1«,5""t:~(JIJIoICESIZo':>'I.900'1./2059.9'57Z.I32'15.101<11.//ICAP"ES.~AilGI~110.3'.3/O~2b4/o.'n9II/I<ESEkYE.IoIEO./390./421./qLlb.///LOSSl:.S/.....133./10'5.141./111.150.///I·ET"ESOul'lCES/21b4.a1l71.I2133•."'131./27311.......1.II/lloIAIlSFEREO/-21./O./O./I/I//SukPLUS/l'5d.O./30.O./5111.O.!'!AI<PEA"LO...O/GENEHATINGCAPACITYNEUUlkEM!NTS(MEGA~ATTS)M?UFMAXIMUMPLA~TUTII.IZAlrUNFACTUFIAPIIFACTUAl.PI.ANTuTILllATlUr.FACT",;;c.HE;;GY--GcNI:.HAIION/AN~UAI.ENE~GY"enUr;;EMENTS(H(LI.IONSuFKII.O~ATT-"OU;;S)44 TABLE3.10.(contd)Ai<E4:F41HflANI\SFAlkIlAN"':;C/o:;l:.:l--i~El)IUMl.U4UGHOWIHI"lTEkTIl:yEAH:1...'10./WTES:DE.C.0,1978II/U.S.-19...4.Ci<ITI C4l.I'EHIIII)-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------/19'11.-1'197I1'197-1'1911I1998-1'199/PEAK"'''UFA",uFEI.EkGYIPEAKMPuFAPUFEt<Et<GTIPE""<nl'I,F."'UF,,'ot:"'GY/.:-------------/------.-.-.---/-----------------------------/I/ilE,.UlREHE''lISI44C!.1'1'11•/41.1.21lC!3./480.211lS.---------------1/IRESOUilCES//IE~I:>II'lG///HYl/i<f)/170..50•501.48.I170..50.501...8./po•.:'0.50o4ti,.SH.AI'/l:.I.E.CI21&..15.0"lC=OO./21&..7:'.1>51250.I310..15.3590S.c.n,.;~.Tuk6IliE/164..50.10123.I140..50.10O./O.•SQ'.100•illi:.:>al./u..10.011O.IV..10.00u.IO.•10.00u.I/ITOTAl./549.1970./521..1878.I48&.11.11.///AUIJITIOllSII/nYLJw{jI/I138..SIl.Su525.:;IEA~/i:Lc.CI/100..75.2017';.ICO-ttl.TlJ"''''INEI//On.SEL///II/HE.T{'<E!~i:'lT:;III",TuHO///STE.JI;~/ELECI//CU'l".rliRbIr,EI24..00 .00O./140..ull.GOO./:JIESEL//////---------------1II~HUSSRESUlJkCES/52...l'Hu._/4/lb.20S3.I1.24.2137.,//I~AP;;ES.!AARGINI0.189/0.053/0.299I//t<E:>e"YE"Eu./~"./92.I91..III,-OSSESI22.'29./23.30./24.32.//INETkESOuRCESI<lIS.1941•./370.2023./50".210~.I//IkA/~:;FERf.lJI27.IU./O./II/II3uRPLUS/O.U./-91.O.I24.O.PEAKPtAKLOAO/GE~ERATINGCAPACITYNEQuINiMENTS(MEGAwArTSlMPuFMAXIMUMPLANTUTILIZATIONFACTONAPUFACTUAL~I.ANTuTlI.IZAT!ONFACTOMENEkGT--GtNtR,TION/ANNUAI.ENEk;YxEUUI"'EME«TS(MILLIONSOFKIl.u~ATT-HOUNS)45 (ccfltd)AkUIA/.'lillkAl.i1AI.CHUtihll.CAlh.ta....MIULYI<l~UAlJalrilJwflltHTlkll'llAkl1'~0.NUTlltO'C.i,1~78~IV.I••1••••IIo.loa.slao.!i.l8IhIOj.0..11175•..II........S'JRPI.US10lALkl:TIW,l:"ll:I.Tllr1flH,OUl:.A"4/l:L.ECcn~",.TIHlllINfvL1r.::'!!..AVU111111':.liY!JklJ:IHAM/!L.fCCUllcl.TIJkIHtI!Ol£SU.lRAN~FERED46.'PEA~-.PEA~1.0AU/G~NERATINUCAPACITYtiEQUI~EMENTS(MEGAwATTS)MPUP-.MAXIMVMPI.ANTUTIl.IZATIoNFACTURAPUP-.ACTUAl.Pl.ANTurI~IZArIONFAcrONENEr1GY_.GtNtHArlON/ANNUAI.ENlRG'kEUV!wEHEN1S(MILLIONSuFKILOwATI-HUUr15)100SSESCNIf1CA~PiMi~9••••••••••••••••••a•••••6••••••••a8aa••eaa3aaa.a.~••aaaa~aaaaaaaaaaaa=8*••aaa#aa~.aaaaa~~Il••••a~ouIlooOaiOOlIIUOlalUOiI~IAK~PU'A'UFIHIH~YI~ijKMPU~jpy,iNsNiYI~&AK~~y,APUPtNiH~YI.......,.......a.~dUG.US••••••laaaaasaaaaaaaaaaaa~saa···············1II~lwUl~.M!MT~II~II.10ltl.II~al.IU8~••IId4U.••••••....•••••..·1I;I(UOUI(CUII;Ull:lll'l(+II;HYUNOI1"1..~o.10laS7.Ilil7..~o.106180.I~T'AM/'~tCI1441.,.71.344341.I144'..1,.af4747.ICOMS.TuRbl"!I~17..50.1010,.I138..to.10il'.I~I~U!LIo..15.00O.IO..11.00O.IIIII3a95.103•••lSI...1101••IIi'••IIIIIIIll'5..50.50313.I"..a;II....II..IaII..I..IIIIIIIII....III....IInz~.00.00O.I100.,00.00O.II..,I....IIII...-------....../II"kosa"ESOIJHC!SI32'hl..10709•.I:U'l&..l1Ub.Inu.IIICAP~l!S.MARGIhl0.402IO~JilI0.171•IIII47t.I~a4.I••••.IIIIIt'l.1'511.IUt.103..I125.IIIN~r"E~Ou~CE5IZlt~.10551.I2593.10&03.I255e.• 1IIIO.IQ.IIIIIIII357.U..I172.0..I PEl~PeAKLOAO/GENERATI~bCAPACITY"~~UI~E~ENTS(MEGA~ATTS)~PUFMAXIMUMPLANTurlLIZATIONFACTuRAPuFACTuALPLANlUTILIZATIONFACTo~~NE"Gr--GlNeNAIION/ANNUALENENGY~E~ur~E"tNrS(MILLIONSOF~lLO~ATT-MUUNS)47 TABLE3.10.(contd)Aflf.A:A"CMOWA",€..:.:.r.,..O~AbcC':'S,,:2.-MfuIuML.OAOGROWTHIrI1E'lfIf.YEAR:19'10.1,IJll:.S:OEC.1>,1'11ll';1U.S.-l'1'H.CIIIIrCAL.I'ERI00;-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------I.:ou2-2u03I,<!003-2004I20,,/i·<!OOSIPEA/\",PUFAPUFE::<€'l<Gy",fPEAK1'\l"UFAPUFEN!iRGYIl"EAK1'\PUFAPUFE.NERGY1-·------------1..···---------1--------------···-·····_····-1II"EIJIIIFIE1'\l"NT5I255».11'IB7.I2&21>.11799.I21>'14.12111.··_·_---_·---·-1II"E"OlJilCe5.IIIEHSTlt,GIII"YUllOI11>17..~(;..,,/.50011:>0.I1017..50.50bl00.I1&11..50.50bl00.STeAM/ELECI1<l1l5..ri.38,,{o3.Irails..1S.30sao1.I134':1..75.380133..CII"'~.n,>!"Ii.EIlle1.'.so.1015•Iill._.50•1015•IIll..50.10O•UIl:.SELI0.'.15.uoO.IO.•15.00O.IO..15.00O.IIITOTALI31all.10'159.I31l110.11976.I3480.12293.1IIA\:vLflOt,,,IIIM't'JWfJIII"fl:.AM'!"Lf~I'lou•.•/5.20701•IICr)......Tu,/ijWEIIIGIESe:LIIIIIIRl:.TlkE.HcNTSIIIri1iJifOIII"T"A:HEL.fCIIIt.l),.~:,..TlJHu(i"c.IIOU..1,/0•liOO.II1e..00.uoo•UI:.SELIIIIII·_-------------1IIl.til(J5~;:'"SIlI)ilCESI311110_I1bS9.I34110.11970.I3402.L2<!'I3.IIIC.~RES.MANGI~I0.31>1I0.32'5I0.28-:;I'II!-IE:;!:.iiV€'"EO_I':112.I525.I539./IIL.U5SESI12ll.172.I131.117.I1.5'.:>.182.III~Ei;'E:SC,JilCESI28~1.11487.I282<4.1179'1.I2789.12111.IIIiRA"',,/'€i'lE:DIO.IO.IU./IIIII5lJlcPl.USI21\5.O.I1'1".U.I"1~.O.PE4K--PEAKL.OAu/GENt~ATINGCA~ACITYKEQUIKE~ENTS(MEGAwATTS)~PUF--MAXIMUMPLANTUTILIZATIONFACTORArllF.-ACTUAl.PLANTUfIL.IZATIuNF4J:iuKE,.ERGY.-GEN~RATION/ANNUAL.E:NERGY"E~UIHE.ME:NJS(MIL.L.!ONSOF~IL.O~Arl-"OUR~l48 CI<ITICAi.,._.PEI<10D-----.-..--------------------------------.----_.._---------------------------------------PEAl(--PE.A~LOAO/GENEHATINGCAPACI1Y~EYUIwE~ENTS(M£GAdAT1S)MPUF--MAXIMUMPI.A~TUTI~I4ATIUNFACTUkA~UF--ACTUALPLANTUTILIZATIONFACT0~ENERGY--GENtRATIONIANNUALENERGYP£QUI~EMENrS(/olII.~IONSOFKI~O"ATI-MOURS)490.12,"0.1191•v~O.2431.23'15.ENERGY.50.';0.15.35.50.1\I.10 .00cOO,,-2005MPUFAPUFo.32&.391.0.,O.IIPeAK1------I/S'I&./////II/I71b./II//I/I//I/II/71&.II0.311I/109./I//580.//IIO./55•12<:0.1140.O.O•238a.233a.ENERGY(contd),.50.50•7~.34•~o.10•10..CO,,003-COO'l/olPl;FAPUFO.27•32b•391.0•.O.//PEAK/------//537.//I/II///71&.//I//////U.I//I/I71&./IQ~333//107.//I/562.////O./.55.175•2312.2.$47.c171.--------•75.20.00.00•so.50.75•.$7.~O.10.10.Uo20U2-2(103MPUF"PUFU.TABLE3.10.AKEA:FA{r<OANI\SFArRRANI\S'CAS~:2--MEDIU~LOADGRO~TH-I....TEIHH.TEMI:1Q90.NUT~S:OEC.b,1918,,/U.S.-19'14.TOTALJoi)lJITI0,,,5.,TUHOSH.AM/EI.ECC""I;.fIJi<"INC:OH.,~ELfiET[PEI-l€."lTS"li.JRO5fEJo'·/l:.Ll:.Cc(mlS.TuRo[NE'iH,SEI."...05;;><E::;UUkCf,:>/71&./CAP~l:.~.MANGINI0.3~'1IRESE~VEr<EQ./10~./LOSSeS/2~.I~Ef~ESOURCESI554./TNANSfEHf,D/O./ISUkPI.US/57.---------------1//PEAl(/---------------------/NEuU!kE~e~T~/·~27.---------------/ioIe:SOukCE.S/E.xI~fll.C./.,YORIJ/~TU"/c.LECICO:AR.TUHo[NE/tiIl:.SELI//Eo'll.////1011.//////I// TABLE3.10.(contd)AwE"':"'.CHOWA~A'/CHIIWAb€CAS2--M€UIUM1.0AUGROwT..;INT~fHI€TEAR19'1\1'.IHJT€S:Of.C.0,1978'tI/U.S.-199<1,CwI TICAI.~EWI00._-----------------------------._--------------------------------------------------------/2005-2000/2000-2007/2007-2<iUll/PEAKMPUFAPilI'ENI<l<GYIPEAKMPIIFAPIlFEl'IE>lGTIPtAI<MPUFAPUFtNCwGY/------.-----.-/------------_./-----------------------------//Iwe(,IllREI'~Nr5/21..3.12423./21131.12135.I2119.'l.130'17.---------------///"E:'OlJ"CES/IIE<t"T\:.1;IIIn1l.iicU/1011..~O•!:Iubl00./1017..50•500100•/1017•.50.~OolbO."TI:.A"'EI.I:.C/l1lLl5../5."0b450_I1l:\<l5.,15.38oObo_I22<15_,75.3blQ83.CO:';o.Tl.iR;otNE/O.•!:Ill.10O.Io..50.100,I0_.50_100_uIi:.SEL/,j-_IS.uOu.IO..15.000_/Q..15.00O./IIlOrA\....I3L1b2.12b09.I3<lo.:.1':225_I3Ilo.:.13':<13./IIAuOITiONSIII"TU"')IIISTEA"/ELEC/I<100..15.20701.ICo,.,....rIJ"l~INC.IIIlIIESELII/I/IIll:.TiRE41:NTSIIIIHIH"jII/:HeA'1/€I.ECI//CO!,''.Tlll-/t\Ii.(./III)Hi.SEL/I//I/--------------/I/G1WS;,RESOURl;ESI34;'':.12bO'1./3Ilb':.129':b_/311bc.132<13_II/CAl'"1:.5•.MARGINI0_253/0_304I0.332IIIi<€:'Ei<vef'l!El4.I~5.3.ISob_/:lllll.II/1.0:':;!:.SI13':1.180./142,I'll.IILlS..1<;...II/nETI-/ESOuwCESI2711.litle3.I3154.1273'5.I31.37.13\1''1./I/TRM.:;,FEREJI0,I-10,I-C!3./II///S\JR"t.IJSI».O.I313_O.I210.O.PeA~PEA~~OAU/GENeHArI~GCAPACITYHeQIJIkEMENT~(~EGA~ATTS)~PIJFMA~IMU~PLANTUfiLIZAlluNFACTURA~UFACTuAkPLA~fuTtLIZATIO~FACTORE:.EHGY--G!:.N~RAfrONIM~~UALEt.!i.t<GYREUuIRE)04!:1.TS(MILLIONl;OF~IkO~ATT-"OUR~)50 _.---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------/~Ov5-2vOl)/2000-cu07/20u7-2008/I'EAKIoIi'uFAl'uFl;ilEilGY1PEAK!'puFAPUI'EI<E;tGY/PEAK,",PuFAf'UFENERGY/-------------1--------------/------------.---~------------///wE!.olJ.IRE!o'c;r.TS155~.21137./5&5.21178./575.2520.---------------///'o/E:>Uu"C;ES///Ellt:)TH.G/1//'fToRO/32b..::>0•5012'10•/32b..50.5012'4;)./3210..50.501240.~TIoA'''/ELEC/.591.•1'5•~o1234./.511..7::>..59I.U:i./HI•.7S.'111.511l•eo",o.TU;,tdthE/o.•:>0•10o•/o..50•10O•/O..50.10o•vH.~E['/O.•10.00O•/O..10.00O.1O..10.00O.///rOTAt./710.2'174./&9&•2515./&90.255<1.///AOOIHONS////'fTiJ,.1j///STU"'/~LEC///CUM,!.TUi/fIII'E///j(JlESEL///.'///~eTI"e>ll:.f.TS///';11.;'1J///:,HAUELEC/20..vO.00O.//:CO"''''.TlI'?"II.E///OI~:,e.L///,///---------------///",nt):':;'",,:'OUI<C£:;/b'Jo.2474./696.2515./&91>.2558.i//1C;~PkES.~ARGI~/fl.25?10.232/0.211///"Es".."eliEv./Ul./11.3•/115.I/I.LOSS!:.:>/28.37./213.37./29.38.///,.E.rI<ESOuwe;;:s./557.2'137.I555.2'178./552.2520.I/Irlo.NSFERElJIo.Ilu./23.11/II/SURPLuSI1•.O./O.O.IG.I).PEAKPEAKLOAO/GE~fRATI~sCAPACITY~EuulRE~ENTS('"'EiA~ATTS)",..OF"'AX!I'lUI4PL~NrurILIlATl{JNFACTLJ".I'UFACTU4LPLA"'TUTILIZATIONF4CTOwE~EwGY--GEN~RATIO~/ANNUALENERGYRECUIREMENTS(MILLIONSOFKILOWATT-nOURS)eRITICAl.PER100(contd)5-1TABLE3.10."'''EA:FAI"HANI\Sf~1~B4N~SeAS~:2--~E~IUMLOADGRO~rMTr,TEid1~'TEAf<:1"90.NorES:O~C.c,1978~/U.5.-1994." TABLE3.10.(contd)AkEA:A"CIiOk""fAi.Ci1UtiAI"ECA:,)t.:2--!~EOlUMLOADGIlO"'TH1'.1£kTlt:.tEAk:19'10.N'JlI:.~:U~C.t"1<;70Il/U.S.-\q~.Q;.CRIT1CAI.PEkIuII--------.--------------------------------------------------------------------------------120ua-~1109I2110'l-201uI2ul0-2ul1IPEAo(MPuF..,.>uFENEi<GYIPEAKMPUFAPUFENt:ilGYIPEAKMPUFAi"UFfNElICr/-------------1--------------1-----------------------------1I1·~E':4;J~rtE.·«E.tiT~/Z'll>d.1335..../3030.13671./3104.13'IlU.--------------1IIkE~ri\J..;;l:."Iy/E11::.1IrIGI1/IiYUkOI1",17•.50.506160.I1III7..50.5061bO.I101/..50.50016u."rf:.AJo;/ELEC/22'1'::1..75.387'lCI0.IU'l5..75.397?1b•122.'15..75.37733':.Clll>\8.Tllk';INEIv..;'0~10G.I0•..50.10O.Iu..50.10u•LlI:.",c.L/l)e"•15•vi)o.IO..1::;.00. O•IU..15.,UOu.II1TOTAI.I3tH,Z.13~59.I3<:1&2.13a70.I30"",loS..92•//1AUO!T10"5lIIrt1lJto({J/_I/I::.fE...../I:.l.EC11/400..75.20l\fl.CO>tij.TUl<ttH:E/1/vlc.'-!:.L1/..I1//I<f:.fIRE./iENT;;///;-tYl,)iHJ1//SH...·Hl:.l.E:C/1/CO....".TIj,;",I/,E11IvIt5EL1I///I---------------///~~O~~l<F..SllU:<CES/33&2.13':159./38&2.1381&./<l2be.1'l193.//IC~I'kES."ARGIll/0.301I0.272/0.373///:<€~E."vE.;;EU./sq/J./001./bel.///1.0,,:;1:.:>/1'l".2iH).1152.205.1155.210.//INfTi<ESOllKCES/312l1.13359./3103.13b71./3481>.13963./11Tii~N:>FEiiED/-3~.I-41>./-58.I///I/SU""l.US11111.O./21.O./:seS.0."PEA~--..PEAKLllAV/GENE~ATINbCAPACITYREQuIREM£NTS(MEGAwATTS)MPUF--MAXIMUMP~AwlUTILIZATIONFACTU"A!'OF--ACTUALPI...i.TUTIl.IZATIONFACTUI'!£N~kGr--GENc.RATIUN/ANNUA\.~NERGYREQUI"EMENTS(MIl.LIONSOFKII.UWATT-liuUilS)52 PEAKP~A~LOAD/GENERATINGC~~ACITYI<€QUIREMENTS(MEG~nATTS)"'~UFMAAl>4UMP\.A·HUTILIlAfICJNFACTOkAPUFACTuALPLANTUTILIZATIONFACTOR€NEWGY--G~N~RATI0N/ANNUALENEkGYREQUIR€M€NTS(MI\.LIONSOFKILUWATT-MOURS)--------.------------------.-------------------------------------------------------------/c!o,,~-aOO9/200'1-2010/aOl0-2ull/PEAKMPuF....uFENEwGY/PEAKMPUF'APUFEI'.ERGY/PEA~;"PUF'APUt'"EN€kGY/--------------/------------.-/-------------------_._-------///kt(JIJIRL'~"HTS/5A4.e?501./594.2&0.5./003.2&4S.---------------///"Esuu"CES///EX15TIIIG///l1yl),<U/32b.•~O.501240.I32b..50.501240•/32b..50•501240•:;T....."'/ELEC/371..151•421359./371~.75 .43140.1•/371..7';,•..51445.CO"'a.TtJRtlINE/II.•50.:0O./O..50.10O•/Il..50.1ilo•lJleS€L/o.•10•I)(jO./o..10.00O•/O..10.00o.///TIlrAL/,,'In.as'l9./1>9".2D"2./b"lh.<~n.~.,/IIAuOITIC),"SI//H'fIJRO//I~r~A"1/ELEC//I::0"'''.TI):'1..II'.E///"1,,SEL///I//I>ErlREi~<.rHS//I,.,YIlRIl///5Tl:/,'~/ELt::C/,./ICO'1b.TUI<t;WE///uIt.SEL//////---------------///GftOS"RESOuRCES/<.9b.2599./b9b.2&'12.I69b.2bil5.///CA~"E5.MARGIN/II.ba/0.172/0.154///RESExVE'<EiJ./117•/119./121.I//,,£ISS!:.$/29.38./30.39./30.40.///NET"E50URCES/5'50.2501./54<1.2!>O3./5'15.21>45./I/TRAM,FEREO/34./46./58.II//I/SuRPl.US/o.O./O.U./O.O.CRIT!C4"PERIUD(contd)53TABLE3.10.A"EA:FAI"bAN~SFAIR6AN~SCAS~:2--MEDIUMLUADGRO~THI~TF.RII€YEAR:1990.NOle$;UeC.0,l~l~H/u.~.-I~q4. IAljLtj.I I .~cneaUleOT~Ian~RGal~lOn5-l~e~dWd~~~JBaseCasesWithoutInterconnectionsAnchorageFairbanksPeriodHighMedianLowHigh~,1edian:'-ow78-7979-801141il41114180-8110011001100181-8218118118182-8350023004100183-8420084-85218418118110085-862886288688510086-8740010087-8820020088-8940014714714789-9020020010010010090-9132732732791-924439243843792-93400 40020010010093-9494-95400320010010095-964003400200257257?r;7,-c.I96-97400340040010010097-98400340020010010098-994003200100 10099-004003400 40000-01400301-0202-03400340003-044003200 20004-0505-06400340040006-07"400307-0820008-09400309-10400310-11400TOTAL78-118,2814,6812,6811,471871471Seefootnotesnextpage54 TABLE3.11.(contd)(1)ScheduledCombustionTurbines(2)ScheduledCombustionTurbines+400MWS.T.(3)Anchorage400MWCoal-FiredUnitsCouldbeReplacedwithStaged800MWCapacityUnits(4)ScheduledCombustionTurbine+200MWS.T.(5)BradleyLake(70MW)x1.15forPeaking+7MWS.T.NationalDefense(6)BradleyLake(70MW)x1.15forPeaking+200MWS.T.+7MWS.T.NationalDefense(7)NationalDefense(8)200MWS.T.+43MWS.T.NationalDefense(9)400MWS.T.+43MWS.T.NationalDefense55 IAtlLtj.I~.~cheduleofPlantAdditions-(Megawatts)CasesWithInterconnectionWithoutUpperSusitnaAnchorageFairbanks"PeriodHighMedianLmvHighMedianLow78-7979-8011411141114180...8110011001100181-8218118118182-8350023003100183-8420084-85218618118110085-862885288588410086-87-*-*87-8840020020088-8914814814889-90400-*200--*10090-9120032832832891-9244311243943892-9340020020093-9440010094-95-*100-*95-964007400200125101251025896-97400740020010010097-98400740020010010098-99400740010099-00400700-01400740040001-02400702-034007"10003-0440020004.-0520005-06400706-074007TOO07-08400740008-0909-10400710-114007TOTAL78-118,2814,2812,2311,271671471Seefootnotesnextpage,..,..::)0 TABLE3.12.(contd)*InterconnectionInstalled(1)ScheduledCombustionTurbineAdditions(2)100MWScheduledCombustionTurbine+400MWS.T.(3)100MWScheduledCombustiqnTurbine+200MWS.T.(4)BradleyLake(70MW)x1.15forPeaking+7MWS.T.NationalDefense(5)BradleyLake(70MW)x1.15forPeaking+200MWS.T.+7MWS.T.NationalDefense(6)18MWScheduledCombustionTurbine+200MWS.T.(7)Anchorage400MWCoal-FiredUnitsCouldbeReplacedwithStaged800MWUnits(8)NationalDefense(9)200MWS.T.+43MWS.T.NationalDefense(10)100MWS.T.+25MWS.T.NationalDefense(11)400MWS.T.+43MWS.T.NationalDefense57 IP'l::)Ll:.j.ij.~chedu]eofPlantAdditions-(Megawatts)CasesWithInterconnectionWithUpperSusitnaComingOnLjnein1994AnchorageFairbanksPeriodHighMedianLowHighMedianLow78-7979-8011411141114180-8110011001.100181-8218118118182-8350023005100183-8420084-85218818118110085-862887288788610086-87-*-*87-88400200 20088-8914101410141089-90400-*200-*10090-9120032103210321091-9244314243124310-*92-93-40020093-9440020010094-95677365836443132315i3164395-9689386385342114411461196-9740097-9840010098-9968846544-12441384-99-00864-8546454-164184-1474-00-0183410019401-02400910002-03400940010003-0420004-05400905-06400906-0740007-0840008-09400909-1020010-114009400TOTAL78-118,2214,5642,5381,360697522Seefootnotesnextpage58 TABLE3.13.(contd)*InterconnectionInstalled(1)ScheduledCombustionTurqineAdditions(2)Scheduled100MWCombustionTurbine+400MWS.T.(3)ShareofWatanaCapacityx1.15forPeaking(4)ShareofDevilCanyonCapacityx1.15forPeaking(5)Scheduled100MWCombustionTurbine+20nMWS.T.(6)BradleyLake(70MW)x1.15forPeaking+ 7MWS.T.NationalDefense(7)BradleyLake(70MW)i1.15forPeaking+200MWS.T.+MWS.T.~ationalDefense(8)Scheduled18MWCombustionTurbine+200MWS.T.(9)Anchorage400MWCoal-Fire&UnitsCouldbeReplacedwithStaged800MWUnits(10)NationalDefense\(11)ShareofWatanaCapacityx1.15forPeaking+25MWS.T.NationalDefense(12)200MWS.T.+43MWS.T.NationalDefense(13)ShareofWatanaCapacityx1.15forPeaking+25MWS.T.NationalDefense'(14)400MWS.T.+43MWS.T.NationalDefense59 7000i'6000~/':.~5000;;~0~...J~4000<:L.1.IQ..0z/<:V'l/---.;IL.1.I3000uI0::/--::J1'..........10/_1V'll.J.J0::Il-2000/l.J.JI~__=::::za~<IlIilIaZII.~100060FIGURE3.6.Load/ResourceAnalysisforAnchorage-CookInletAreaWithoutInterconnectionandWithoutSusitnaProject(Case1).Low,Medium,andHighLoadGrowthScenarioso80859095YEAR200020052010 61FIGURE3.7.Load/ResourceAnalysisforAnchorage-CookInletAreaWithInterconnectionbutWithoutUpperSusitnaProject(Case2).Low,Medium,andHighLoadGrowthScenarios20108580o'--__....1....J-__---:'-'--__---:'_l_-...J909520002005YEAR10007000//6000t/-l:s:§5000Q~-J:::.:::<:l.l.Jc..4000QZ<:V')l.l.JUc:::3000;:::)0V')l.l.Ic:::;-l.l.Jz2000 7000,----------------------------.,/20052000/- II,III8580aL...-__---J--J.........1........1--'--'--'-----1909560001000~5000~oC§-l~4ooo«Ll.Ja..oZ«~3000u0::::::)oV"lLl.J0::2000I-Ll.JZYEARFIGURE3.8.Load/ResourceAnalysisforAnchorage-CookInletAreaWithInterconnectionandWithUpperSusitnaProjectComingOnLinein1994(Case3).Low,Medium,andHighLoadGrowthScenarios62 6315020102005200095YEAR908580oFiGURE3;9.Load/ResourceAnalysisforFairbanks-TananaValleyAreaWithoutInterconnectionandWithoutUpperSusitnaProject(Case1).Low,Medium,andHighLoadGrowthScenario1200l"'...._I -I1050Ir,I/....."-3:I~Q900,........I~I......'I...J:::.::::I«Ll.IIc..750QIzI«c.nILl.IUr··1.c:::600:::;)0Ic.nLl.Ie:::l-Ll.Iz450,------300 642010200520009095YEAR8580FIGURE3.10.Load/ResourceAnalysisforFairbanks-TananaValleyAreaWithInterconnectionbutWithoutUpperSusitnaProject(Case2).Low,Medium,andHighLoadGrowthScenario15012001---:--------------------------,1050,..1'-II900I-I3::EI-0I<C7500I.-oJ~-'\.I<Cl..W0-0600z<CV)l..WU<::1tlI:D~Cl!IIiIl"'~c::::::J0450V)l..Wc:::l-l..WZ300 651502010,--------200520009095YEAR8580FIGURE3.11.Load/ResourceAnalysisforFairbanks-TananaValleyAreaWithInterconnectionandWithUpperSusitnaProjectCorningOnLinein1994(Case3).Low,Medium,andHighLoadGrowthScenarioso1200,...-------------------------,lOS0900-s:~Q<:7500...I:::.::::<:LJ.Jc..Q,-.z600<:enLJ.JUe:::::::JS;450LJ.Je:::l-LJ.JZ300 4.0SYSTEMPOWERCOSTANALYSESThischapterdescribesthemethodologyusedtoevaluatetheannualcostofpowerfromindividualgeneratingfacilities(orgroupsofsimilargeneratingfacilities),themethodofcomputingtheaveragesystem-widepowercosts,andpresents'theresultsofthesystempowercostanalyses.Thefirstsectionbrieflydiscussesfactorswhichdeterminethecostofpower.Thesecondsectiondescrithecomputationalmethodusedtocomputetbeannualcostofpower.ThismethodisincorporatedintoacomputermodeltitledECOST4.AlistingofthecomputercodeisgiveninAppendixD.Thethirdsectionofthischapter containsadiscussionofhowthesystem-widepowercostsarecomputedgiventhepowercostsfortheindi-vidualfacilities.Theresultsarepresentedinthelastpartofthechapter.4.1FACTORSDETERMININGTHECOSTOFPOWERThreecostcategoriesareevaluatedinthisreport:1)interestamortizationcharges(capitalcost);2)fuelcosts;and'3)operating,maintenanceandreplacementcosts.Ofcourse,thereareothercostitemsincludedinthecostofpowertotheconsumer,suchastaxes,insurance,distributionandbillingcharges,butthesecostsarenotevaluatedinthisreportsincetheytypicallydonotvaryamongthethreecasesevaluated.ThesecomponentsofthecostofpowerareshowninFigure4.1.Theannualplantcapitalexpensesarefixedbytheinitialfinancingandaretypicallyconstantoverthelifeoftheplant.Operation,maintenance,andreplacementfuelcoststypicallyincreaseovertimeasaffectedbyinflationandrealpriceincreases.Asaresult,thetotalannualcostofpowerprogressivelyincreasesovertime.4.1.1CapitalCostsThecapitalcostsrepresentthetotalcostofconstructingagene-ratingfacillty.Thecapitalcostestimatesusedinthisanalysisinclude66 COSTOFELECTRICITY(MILLS/K~~H)TIME(YEARS)FIGURE4.1.ComponentsoftheTotalAnnualCostofPower67 684.1.2HeatRateSOURCE:AlaskaPowerAdministration,August1978.($/kW)24541860161731461071.9Itisassu~edthatthecapitalthepaybackperiodofthetermsofconstantOctoberTotalInvestmentCost(million$)245.4372.0646.8-2501.2834.0100MWCoalSteamTurbine200MWCoalSteamTurbine400W~CoalSteamTurbineWatanaDam(795MW)DevilCanyonDam(778MW)interestandescalationduringconstruction.costsarerepaidinequalannualpaymentsoverplant.Thecapitalcostestimatesusedarein1978dollars.Thetotalinvestmentcostforthecoal-firedandhydroelectricgeneratingfacilitiesareshownbelow.TheheatrateistheratiooftheBtu1sgoingintotheplantasfueltothekWh1sofelectricityproducedbytheplant.Theheatrateisassumedtoremainconstantforallplantutilizationfactorsoverthelifetimeoftheplant.Theheatratefornewcoal-firedsteamelectricplantsisassumedtobe10,500Btu/kWh.4.1.3Operation,Maintenance,andReplacementCostsTheoperating,maintenance,andreplacement(OM&R)costsincludetheadministrativeandgeneralexpensesaswellastheinterimreplacementcosts.AllestimatesareexpressedintermsofOctober1978dollars.Theyareescalatedatarateequaltotherateofgeneralinflation.TheOM&Rcostsforcoal~firedsteamelectricandhydroelectricgeneratingfacilitiesandtransmissionfacilitiesareshownbelow.TransmissionfacilitycostsarepresentedinTable3.7. 694.1.7UnitFuelCosts4.1.6AnnualPlantUtilizationFactorCosts($/kW/yr)37.628.524.50.940.942.0OM&R(million$)3.765.79.80.740.73100MWCoalSteamTurbine200MWCoalSteamTurbine400MWCoalSteamTurbineWatanaDam(795MW)DevilCanyonDam(778MW)NewtransmissionfacilitiesSOURCE:AlaskaPowerAdministration,August1978.FuelcostsforthermalgenerationplantsareexpectedtoincreaseovertimesfollowingpathsshowninFigures4.2~hrough4.4fornaturalThefinancingdiscountraterepresentsthecostofcapitaltoutility.Arateof7.0%isassumedinthisreport..Thisisassumedtobeanaverageofalltypesoffinancingavailable:Thelengthoftimeoverwhichtheplantisfinancedisthepaybackperiod.Thisisassumedtobeequaltotheplantlifetimeexceptforhydroprojectswherea50-yearpaybackperiodisassumedversusatleasta100-yearplantlifetime(see Section3.2.6).Theplantutilizationfactor(PUF)istheratiooftheactualpowerproductionduringayeartothetheoreticalmaximumiftheplantwastorun8760hoursat100%capacityduringtheyear.Theannualplantutilizationfactorishighlyvariabledependinguponmanyfactors(e.g.,forcedoutagerate,costofpowerfromalternativesources,andpowerproductionrequirements).Becauseofthis,itisnecessarytoexplicitly'considertheeffectsofthePUFonthecostorpoweroverthelifetimeofaplant.Aspointedoutearlier,thePUFsusedinthereportaredeterminedbytheload/resourceanalyses(seeSection3.2.6).4.1.5PaybackPeriod4.1.4FinancingDiscountRate 10r----------------------;:--"';"1BELUGA&HEALY0.1I..--..l...__-l..-__..J.-__..l..-_---J70SOURCE:AlaskaPowerAdministration)August1978.201020009080FIGURE4.2.EstimatesofFutureCoalPrices-2%and7%Escalation 201000//////7%//7180-90BELUGA70ANCHORAGE-KENAIFIGURE4.3.EstimatesofFutureNaturalGasPrices-2%and7%Escalation0.11.010.aSOURCE:AlaskaPowerAdministration,August1978 FAIRBANKSIIIIII I?faIIIIIIIIIIIIII/1IIIIANCHORAGE-KENAIPENINSULA1.0L..--L-__J..-._---I.__-l-__-'--_-JFIGURE4.4.EstimatesofFutureFuelOilandDieselPrices-2%and7%EscalationSOURCE:AlaskaPowerAdministration,August1978.20100090728070 gas(CookInletareas),coalanddistillableo{l.AlthoughnaturalgasislikelytobecomeavailableintheFairbanksregionintheearlytomid19801s,Federalpoliciesareexpectedtoprecludeitsuseforpowergen-erationexceptforprobingandthecostisindetermentatthepresenttime.4.1.8GeneralInflationRateBecauseoftheuncertaintyinvolvedinestimatingthefuturerateofinflation,twoalternativecasesareevaluated.Aconstantdollarcase(0%inflation),anda5%inflationcase.4.1.9ConstructionEscalationRateInthisanalysis,~onstructioncostsareassumedtoescalateatthesamerateastherateofgeneralinflation.4.1.10FuelEscalationRateThefuelescalationrateissettoequalthegeneralinflationrateplus2%.4.2.METHODOFCOMPUTINGTHEANNUALCOSTOFPOWERFROMINDIVIDUALGENERATINGFACILITIESDuringanyyeartheelectricalpowerproductioniscomputedthus:*EPPROi=(ICAP*PUFi*HPY)/1000where:ICAP=Installedcapacity(MW)PUF.=Platutilizationfactorinyeari(fraction)1HPY=Hoursperyear(8760hours/year)*Parameterswiththesubscriptiareassumedtovaryeachyearoverthelifetimeoftheplant.Parameterswithoutthesubscriptareassumedtobeconstantoverthelifetimeoftheplant.73 Thetotalannualcosts(TAC)arecomposedoftwoelements:variablecostsandfixedcosts.Inequationform:TAC.=VARC.+FIXC.111where:VARCi=Variablecostsinyeari($/Year)FIXCi=Fixedcostsinyeari($/Year)Thevariablecostsconsistonlyofthefuelcosts.VARCi=FUELCiwhere:FUELCi=Fuelcostsinyeari($/Year).Inturn,fuelcostsarecomputed:~UELCi=HEATR*EPPROi*UFUELCiwhere:HEATR=Heatrate(Stu/kWh)EPPROi=Electricalpowerproductioninyeari(MMkWh)UFUElCi=Unitfuelcostsinyeari($/MMS'tu)Thefixedcostsconsistoftwofactors.Thesefactorscanbewriteninthefollowingequationform:FIXC;=INTAM+OMRCiwhere:INTAM=Interestandamortization(capitalrecovery)charges($/Year)OMRC;=Operations,maintenanceandreplacementcostsinyear;($/Year).Theinterestandamortizationcharges(INTAM)representtheannualdebtservicepayments.74 75INTAM=CRF*TINVCAC..lJn=:Ei=lTAC.Jwhere:TAC.=totalannualcostofpowerproductionforthesysteminJyearj($)CRF=CapitalRecoveryFactorTINVC=TotalInvestmentCosts($)PBP=Paybackperiod(years)Tocomparetheoverallcostofpowerproducedbythesealternativesarelativelystraightforwardmethodisused.Thecostsofproducingandtransmittingpowerforeachofthegenerationandtransmissionfacilitiesareaddedtogetherforeachyearduringtheperiod1978-2010.Inequationform:where:ThemethodologydescribedinthissectionisincorporatedintoacomputermodelcalledECOST4.Oncethecostsofproducingpowerfromthevariousindividualgen-eratingfacilitiesinasystemareknown,amethodofcomparingthetotalcostofpowerfromthethreealternativesystemconfigurationsevaluatedinthisreportisneeded.Thecapitalrecoveryfactorisusedtocomputeafutureseriesofequalend-of-yearpaymentsthatwilljustrecoverapresentsumpavernperiodsvatcompoundinterest(IR).Itiscomputedthus:(l,p.26)where:4.3METHODOFCOMPUTINGAVERAGESYSTEMPOWERCOST .'AC..=annualcostofprOd~cing."or"t;ansmittingpowerforfacilitylJiduringyearj($)n=numberofgenerationandtransmissjonfacilitiesinsystem.Likewisetheamountofpowerproducedbyeachfacilityduringeachyearissummedtogiveasystem-widetotal.where:n=:Ei=1PP..lJTAPPj=totalannualpowerproductionforthesysteminyearj(kWhs)PPij=power'producedbyeachgeneratingfacilityiduringyearj(KWHs)n=numberofgeneratingfacilitiesinsystemBydividingthetotalcostbythetotalgenerationanaveragecostofpowerforthesystemisobtainedforeachyear.EPCOSTjwhere:EPCOSTj=averagesystem-widecostofpowerforyearj($/kWh)Bycomparingthecostsofpower,thesystemproducingthelowestcostof"powercanbeselected.4.4RESULTSOFSYSTEMCASHFLOWANDPOWERCOSTCALCULATIONSTheresultsofthesystemcashflowandpowercostcalculationsarepre-sentedinthissection.Aspointedoutearlierinthereportthreecaseswereevaluated:Case1.Alladditionalgeneratingcapacityassumedtobecoal-firedsteamturbineswithoutatransmissioninterconnectionbetweentheAnchorage-CookInletareaandtheFairbanks-TananaValleyloadcenters.76 Case2.Alladditionalgeneratingassumedtobecoal-firedsteamturbinesincludingatransmissionir.terconnection.Case3.AdditionalcapacitytoincludetheUpperSusitnaproject(includingtransmissioninterconnection)plusadditionalcoalasneeded.UpperSusitnaassumedtocomeonlinein1994.Tables4.1through4.36presentthe,cashflowandpowercostcalculatedforthe3cases.Thecontentsofthesetablesaresummarizedbelow:TableLoadGrowthInflationNumberAreaScenarioCaseRate(%)4.1AnchorageLow02IIIIII53IIII2 04IIIIII55IIII306IIIIII57IIMedium1 08IIIIII59IIII2 010IIIIII511IIII3 012IIIIII513"High014""",...:J15""2016"IIII517""3018IIIIII519FairbanksLow020""II521IIII2 022IIIIII523IIII3 024IIIIII525IIMedium026IIIIII527IIII2028IIII"529IIII3030IIIIII531IIHigh032II"II533IIII2034IIII"535"II3036"IIII577 TABLE 4.1-Anchorage-Cook Inlet Area,Low Load Growth Scenario,Case 1,0%Inflation New Hydroe 1ectrl c Transmission Total Cost _lkw COilLfued Capaclli__Costs Systems ___Totaf Total Total System of Existing Investment OM&R Coal loves tmentoM&R Investment OM&R Investment System Consumption,Average POl~er ~Capad ty .--iosts_Costs Costs __Costs__Costs -----f~!L-_Costs Costs Costs,-l Mr1Y-WIi Cos ts,t/KWIi 78-79 33.1 ---------------0.6 0.4 ---34.1 2376 1.4 79-80 42.2 ---------------0.6 0.4 ---43.2 2568 1.7 80-81 48.2 ---------------0.6 0.4 ---49.2 •2706 1.8 81-82 52.8 ---------------0.6 0.4 ---53.8 2850 1.9 82-83 61.1 ------3.1 ------0.6 0.4 ---65.3 2991 2.2 83-84 62.0 ------3.3 ------0.6 0.4 ---66.3 3132 2.1 84-85 66.7 ------3.3 ------0.6 0.4 ---71.1 3273 2.2 85-86 66.7 1.3 0.2 3.6 10.9 0.4 0.6 0.4 12.8 84.1 3433 2.4 8o-a?67.2 1.3 0.2 3.7 10.9 0.4 0.6 0.4 12.8.84.8 3594 2.3 87-88 66.4 30.0 5.9 6.7 10.9 0.4 17.1 3.6 58.0 141.0 3754 3.7 83-59 59.0 30.0 5.9 9.6 10.9 0.4 17.1 3.6 58.0 136.6 3915 3.5 89-90 54.5 58.7 11.6 16.6 10.9 0.4 17.1 3.6 86.7 173.4 4075 4.2 90-91 50.2 58.7 11.6 22.5 10.9 0.4 17.1 3.6 86.7 175.0 4285 4.1 91-92 47.1 66.8 13.7,.26.6 10.9 0.4 17 .1 3.6 94.8 185.7 4495 4.1 '-l 0.4 17.1 3.6 123.5 4705CO92-93 42.4 95.5 13.9 34.5 10.9 .223.3 4.7 93-94 38.9 95.5 18.9 41.9 10.9 0.4 17;1 3.6 123.5 227.2 4915 4.6 94-95 39.4 124.2 24.6 50.7 10.9 0.4 17.1 3.6 152.2 270.9 5125 5.3 %-96 34.5 152.9 .30.3 56.9 10.9 0.4 17.1 3.6 180.9 306.6 5385 5.7 96-97 ~8.3 202.11 40:1 64.1 10.9 0.4 17.1 3.6 230.8 :;67.3 5645 6.5 97-98 25.4 202.8 40.I 69.1 10.9 0.4 17.1 3.6 230.8 369.4 5904 6.3 98-99 27.4 2C2.8 40.1 74.1 10.9 0.4 17.1 3.6 230.8 376.4 6164 6.1 99-2000 22.6 252.7 49.9 80.4 10.9 0.4 3.3.5 6.8 297.1 457.2 6424 7.1 00-01 12.2 252.7 49.9 83.8 10.9 0.4 33.5 6.8 297.1 450.2 M89 6.9 01-02 11.0 252.7 49.9 86.9 10.9 0.4 33.5 6.8 297.1 452.1 6555 6.9 02-03 Ul 252.7 49.9 90.4 10.9 0.4 33.5 6.8 297.1 449.4 6620 6.a 03-04 4.8 252.7 49.9 93.3 10.9 0.4 33.5 6.8 297.1 452.3 6686 6.8 04-05 3.6 252.7 49.9 96.6 10.9 0.4 33.5 6.8 297.1 454.4 6751 6.7 05-06 3.6 302.6 59.7 99.6 10.9 0.4 33.5 6.8 347.0 517.1 Gill 7 7.6 06-07 3.6 302.6 59.7 102.7 10.9 0.4 33.5 6.8 347.0 520.2 6882 7.5 07-0S 3.6 302'\'6 59.7 105.8 10.9 0.4 33.5 6.8 347.0 523.3 6948 7.5 08-09 3.6 302.6 59.7 101l.9 10.9 0.4 33.5 6.8 347.0 526.~7013 7.5 09-10.3.6 302.6 59.7 112.1 10.9 0.4 33.5 6.8 347.0 529.6 7079 7.5 W-ll 3.6 302.6 59.7 115.4 10.9 0.4 33.5 6.8 347.0 532.9 7144 7.5 TABLE 4.2.Anchorage-Cook Inlet Area,Low Load Growth Scenario,Case 1,5%Inflation----- New Ilydroelectl'fc Tl'ansml ssIon Total .Cost _~!'!S~l..!.!~Capac!~L_Costs __.iY~.!~__Total Total Total System of Ex Is t1llg Investment ON&R Coal Investment OHM Investment OM&R Investment System Consumption,Average Power _Year ~acity_Costs Cos!i Costs _Costs___Cosl~_Costs__Costs Costs Costs I $MI~~WIl__Cos ts I C/KWH 78-79 29.7 ---------------0.7 0.4 ---30.8 2376 1.3 79-80 39.1 ---------------0.7 0.4 ---40.1 2568 1.6 80-81 45.7 -------------,..-0.7 0.4 ---46.8 2706 1.7 8\-82 47.9 ---------------0.7 0.5 ---49.1 2850 1.7 82-83 59.5 ------3.1 ------0.7 0.5 ---63.9 2991 2.1 83-84 63.6 ------3.3 ------0.7 0.5 ---68.1 3132 2.2 B4-85 68.7 ------3.3 ------0.7 0.5 ---73.3 3273 2.2 85-86 68.9 2.0 0.4 3.6 14.8 0.6 0.7 0.5 17.5 90.8 3433 2.6 86-87 69.8 2.0 0.4 3.9 14.8 0.6 0.7 0.5 17.5 92.7 3594 2.6 87-88 67.I 46.6 9.2 7.3 14.8 0.6 24.1 5.4 85.5 175.2 3754 4.7 88-89 60.6 46.6 9.7 11.1 14.8 0.6 24.1 5.7 85.5 173.2 39\5 4.4 89-90 56.4 95.7 19.9 20.\14.8 0.7 24.1 6.0 134.6 .237.8 4075 5.8 90-91 52.5 95.7 20.9 28.6 14.8 0.7 24.1 6.3 134.6 243.6 4285 5.7 9\-92 49.8 111.\24.8 35.2 14.6 0.7 24.1 6.6 150.0 267.2 4495 5.9 '-l 168.tl\.0 92-93 47.4 37.4 48.4 14.8 0.8 24.I 6.9 206.9 347.8 4705 7.4 93-94 46.5 168.0 39.2 61.3 14.8 0.1l 24.1 7.3 206.9 362.0 4915 7.4 94-95 48.5 230.7 51.6 17.9 14.8 0.9 24.1 7.7 269.6 456.2 5125 8.9 95-96 43.8 296.5 67.3 92.2 14.8 0.9 24.1 8.1 335.4 547.7 5365 10.2 96-97 36.3 416.7 94.3 108.6 14.8 0.9 24.1 8.5 455.6 704.2 5645 12.5 97-98 37.7 416.7 99.0 122.6 14.8 1.0 24.1 8.0 455.6 724.8 5904 12.3 S6-99 37.5 416.7 103.9 138.4 14.8 1.0 24.1 9.3 455.6 -745.7 6164 12.1 99-2000 31.7 555.8 136.4 156.6 14.6 1.1 68.3 18.4 633.9 963.1 6424 15.3 00-01 16.7 555.8 143.3 172.0 14.6 1.1 68.3 19.3 638.9 991.3 6498 15.3 01-02 15.3 555.8 150.4 1136.5 14.8 1.2 68.3 20.3 633.9 1012.6 6555 15.4 02-03 5.4 555.8 157.9 204.3 14.3 1.3 63.3 21.3 638.9 1029.6 6620 15.5 03-04 5.5 555.8 165.8 221.6 14.B 1.3 68.3 22.4 638.9 1055.5 6686 15.8 04-05 3.6 555.8 174.1 240.4 14.B 1.4 6B.3 23.5 638.9 1081.9 6751 16.0 05-06 3.7 142.3 219.4 259.!l 14.8 1.5 6B.3 24.6 825.4 1334.4 6817 19.6 06-07 3..9 742.3 230.4 280.8 14.8 1.5 68.3 25.9 825.4 1367.9 6882 19.9 07-08 4.0 742.3 241.9 303.6 14.8 1.6 68.3 27 .2 825.4 1403.7 694B 20.2 Oll-09 4.1 742.3 25·1.0 328.2 14 .8 1.7 68.3 21:1.5 825.4 1441.9 7013 20.6 09-10 4.2 472.3 266.7 354.6 14.8 1.B 6il.]30.0 025.4 141l2.7 7079 20.9 10-11 4.4 142.3 2110.1 3112.9 14.1l 1.9 63.3 31.5 iJ25.4 1526.2 7144 21.4 TABLE 4.3.Anchorage-Cook Inlet Area)Low Load Growth Scenario)Case 2,0%Inflation----- New lJydroelectric Transmission Total Cost New COd 1 .fj!,~d ca~!.!f1--Costs Systems Total Total Tota 1 Sys tern of Existing Investment OH&R Coa rriViisfiiienr-oH&ll-Investment --OM&R Investment System Consumption.Average Power Year Ca2acl!.L-Costs fosts Costs __~~--CosH.Costs Costs Costs Costs,$--!:!!:!.~Cos ts.¢IKI.Ifl 78-79 33.1 ---------------0.6 0.4 ---34.1 2376 1.4 79-80 42.2 ---------------0.6 0.4 ---43.2 2568 1.7 80-81 48.2 ---------------0.6 0.4 ---49.2 2706 1.8 81-82 57..8 ---------------0.6 0.4 ---53.8 2850 1.9 82-83 61.1 ------3.1 ------0.6 0.4 ---65.3 2991 2.2 83-84 62.0 ------3.3 ------0.6 0.4 ---.66.3 3132 2.1 lH-85 66.7 ------3.3 ------0.6 0.4 ---71.1 3273 2.2 85-86 66.7 1.3 0.2 3.6 10.9 0.4 0.6 0.4 12.8 84.1 3433 2.4 86-87 67.2 1.3 0.2 3.7 10.9 0.4 0.6 0.4 12.8 84.8 3594 2.3 87-118 66.4 30.0 5.9 6.7 10.9 0.4 17.1 3.6 58.0 141.0 375~3.7 88-89 59.0 30.0 5.9 9.6 10.9 0.4 17.1 3.6 58.0 136.6 3915 3.5 89-90 54.5 58.7 11.6 16.6 10.9 0.4 17.1 3.6 86.7 173.4 4075 4.2 90-91 50.2 58.7 11.6 22.5 10.9 0.4 17.1 3.6 86.7 175.0 4285 4.1 91-92 47.1 66.8 13.2 26.6.10.9 0.4 17.1 3.6 94.8 185.7 4495 4.1 CO 18.9 10.9 0.4 17.1 3.6 123.5 223.3 4705 4.7092-93 42.4 95.5 34.5 93-94 38.9 95.5 18.9 41.9 10.9 0.4 17.1 3.6 123.5 227.2 4915 4.6 94-95 39.4 95.5 HJ.9 46.3 10.9 0.4 35.9 5.6 142.3 252.4 5125 4.9 95-96 34.5 124.2 24.6 55.3 10.9 0.4 35.9 5.6 171.0 290.9 53115 5.4 96-97 28.3 152.9 30.3 64.1 10.9 0.4 35.9 5.6 199.7 327.9 5545 5.8 97-98 25.4 202.11 40.1 69.2 10.9 0.4 35.9 5.6 249.6 3119.8 5904 6.6 98-99 27.4 202.8 40.1 74.1 10.9 0.4 35.9 5.6 .249.6 396.7 6164.6.4 99-2O()O 22.6 202.5 40.1 80.4 10.9 0.4 35.9 5.6 249.6 397.9 6424 6.2 00-01 12.2 252.7 49.9 83.8 10.9 0.4 52.4 8.11 316.0 470.6 54119 7.2 01-02 11.0 252.7 49.9 86.9 10.9 0.4 52.4 8.11 316.0 472.5 6555 7.2 02·03 4.8 525.7 49.9 90.4 10.9 0.4 52.4 8.11 316.0 469.0 f620 7.1 03-04 4.8 252.7 49.9'93.4 10.9 0.4 52.4 8.11 316.0 472.11 6686 7.1. 04-05 3.6 252.7 49.9 96.6 10.9 0.4 52.4 8.11 316.0 474.8 6751 7.0 05-06 3.6 525.7 49.9 99.6 10.9 0.4 52.4 8.11 316.0 477.8 GG17 7.0 06-07 3.6 252.7 49.9 99.6 10.9 0.4 52.4 8.8 316.0 411o.9 6882 7.0 OHJ8 3.6 252.7 49.9 105.7 10.9 0.4 52.4 1l.1l 316.0 484.0 6948 7.0 08-09 3.6 252;7 49.9 1011.9 10.9 0.4 52.4 8.1l 316.0 41l7.1 7013 6.9 09-10 3.6 252.7 49.9 112.1 10.9 0.4 52.4 8.8 316.0 490.3 7079 6.9 10-11 3.6 252.7 49.9 115.4 10.9 0.4 52.4 1l.8 316.0 493.6 7144 6.9 TABLE 4.4.Anchorage-Cook Inlet Area.Low Load Growth Scenario.Case 2,5%Inflation NCI~Hydroelectric Transmission Total Cost flew Coal flr;~capac1~Costs _2x~1~JIIs Total Total Total System of Existing Tn"ilestm~()M&(;0 a liivestmentoM1.lr loves tment --OR"&l(Investment System c.onsumption,Average Power _Year Capaci ty Cosll.-..Costs Costs Costs -Costs -ill~Costs Costs Costs,$MMKWIt Costs,¢/K;;H 78-79 29.7 ---------------0.7 0.4 ---30.8 2376 1.3 79-80 39.1 ---------------0.7 0.4 ---40.1 2568 1.6 80-81 45.7 ---------------0.1 0.4 ---46.8 2706 1.7 81-82 47.9 ---------------0.7 0.5 ---49.1 2850 1.7 82-83 59.5 ------3.1 ------0.7 0.5 ---63.9 2991 2.1 83-84 63.6 ------3.3 ------0.7 0.5 ---68.1 3132 2.2 84-85 60:7 ------3.3 --- --- 0.7 0.5 ---73.3 3273 2.2 85-86 68.9 2.0 0.4 3.6 14.8 0.6 0.7 0.5 17 .5 90.8 3433 2.6 86-07 69.8 2.0 0.4 )r 14.8 0.6 0.7 0.5 17 .5 92.7 3594 2.6 8/-138 6-7".1 46.6 9.2 I.J 14.8 0.6 24.1 5.4 85.5 175.2 3754 4.7 88-89 60.6 46.6 9.7 11.1 14.8 0.6 24.1 5.7 85.5 173.2 3915 4.4 89-90 56.4 95.7 19.9 20.1 14.8 0.7 24.1 6.0 134.6 237.8 4075 5.8 90-91 52.5 95.7 20.9 28.6 14.8 0.7 24.1 6.3 134.6 243.6 4285 5.7 91-92 49.8 111.1 24.8 35.2 14.8 0.7 24.1 6.6 150.0 267.2 4495 5.9 CO 92-93 47.4 168.0 37.4 48.4 14.8 0.8 24.1 6.9 206.9 347.8 4705 7.4--' 93-94 46.5 168.0 39.2 61.3 14.8 0.8 24.1 7.3 206.9 362.0 491!i 7.4 94-95 48.5 168.0 39.3 71.2 14 .8 0.9 63.6 9.7 246.4 416.0 5125 8.1 95-96 43.8 233.3 54.4 89.5 14 .8 0.9 63.6 10.3 312.2 511.1 5385 9.5 96-97 36.3 302.9 70.3 108.6 14.8 0.9 63.6 10.8 381.3 600.7 5645 10.8 97-98 37.7 429.1 99.1 122.6 14.8 1.0 63.6 11.3 507.5 779.2 5904.13.2 98-99 37.5 429.1 104.1 138.4 14.8 1.0 63.6 11.9 507.5 800.4 6164 13.0 99-2000 31.7 429.1 109.3 156.6 14.8 1.1 63.6 12.5 507.5 818.7 6424 12.7 00-01 16.7 575.2 143.4 172.0 14.8 1.1 110.0 22.1 700.0 1055.3 6489 16.3 01-02 15.3 575.2 150.6 186.4 14.8 1.2 110.0 23.2 700.0 1076.7 6555 16.4 02-03 5.4 575.2 158.1 204.9 14.8 1.3 110.0 24.4 700.0 1094.1 6620 16.5 03-04 5.5 575.2 166.1 221.6 14.0 1.3 110.0 25.6 700.0 1120.1 6686 16.7 04-05 3.6 575.2 174.4 240.4 14.8 1.4 110.0 26.9 700.0 1146.7 6751 17.0 05-06 3.7 575.2 183.1 259.8 14.8 1.5 110.0 28.2 700.0 1176.3 G817 17.2 06-07 3.9 575.2 192.2 280.8 14.8 1.5 110.0 29.6 700.0 1208.0 6882 17 .5 07-08 4.0 575.2 201.8 303.6 14.8 1.6 110.0 31.1 700.0 1242.1 6948 17 .9 08-09 4.1 575.2 211.9 328.2 14.8 1.7 110.0 32.7 700.0 127B.6 7013 13.2 09-10 4.2 575.2 222.5 354.6 14.B 1.8 110.0 34.3 700.0 1317 .4 7079 10.6 10-11 4.4 575.2 233.7 302.9 14.8 1.9 110.0 36.0 700.0 135B.9 7144 19.0 TABLE 4.5.Anchorage-Cook Inlet Area,Low Load Growth Scenario,Case 3,0%Inflation------- New lIydroe 1ectrf c Transmission Total Cost _·_N~fQillJ.r~!!..f!!pE.£!!Y ___Costs Systems Total Total Total System of Exlstin9 Investment OM&R Coal InvesTiiient--OM&R -TOVesblien t OM&R Investment System ConsumptIon,Average Power ...:!.!W:-Capacity ~.-Costs Cost5 Cost~_Costs ~!L-Costs Costs Costs,$--!'Jtl!Ji!L_Costs,UKWIJ 78-79 33.1 --------- ------0.6 0.4 ---34.1 2376 1.4 79-80 42.2 ---------------0.6 0.4 ---43.2 2568 1.7 80-81 48.2 ---------------0.6 0.4 ---49.2 2706 1.8 lll-tl2 52.8 ---------------0.6 0.4 ---53.8 2850 1.9 fJ2-tl3 61.1 ------3.1 ------0.6 0.4 ---65.3 2991 2.2 83-84 62.0 ------3.3 ------0.6 0.4 ---66.3 3132 2.1 84-85 66.7 ------3.3 ------0.6 0.4 ---71.1 3273 2.2 85-86 66.7 1.3 0.2 3.6 10.9 0.4 0.6 0.4 12.8 84.1 3433 2.4 86-87 67.2 1.3 0.2 3.7 10.9 0.4 0.6 0.4 12.8 84.8 3594 2.3 87-88 66.4 30.0 5.9 6.7 10.9 0~4 17.1 3.6 58.0 141.0 3754 3.7 88-89 59.0 30.0 5.9 9.6 10.9 0.4 17.1 3.6 58.0 136.6 3915 3.5 89-90 54.5 58.7 11.6 16.6 10.9 0.4 17.1 3.6 86.7 173.4 4075 4.2 90-91 50.2 58.7 11.6 22.5 10.9 0.4 17.1 3.6 86.7 175.0 4285 4.1 CO 91-92 47.1 66.8 13.2 26.6 10.9 0.4 35.9 5.6 113.6 206.0 4t.95 4.6 N 92-93 42.4 66.8 13.2 30.3 10.9 0.4 35.9 5.6 113.6 205.0 4705 4.4 93-94 38.9 95.5 18.9 38.9 10.9 0.4 35.9 5.6 142.3 244.5 4915 5.0 9·1-95 39.4 95.5 18.9 20.6 155.9 1.0 35.9 5.6 287.3 372.3 5125 7.3 95-96 34.5 95.5 111.9 21.6 155.9 1.0 35.9 5.6 287.3 368.4 5385 6.8 96-97 28.3 95.5 18.9 27.9 155.9 1.0 35.9 5.6 287.3 368.5 5645 6.5 97-98 25.4 .95.5 Ill.9 32.2 155.9 1.0 35.9 5.6 287.3 369.9 5904 6.3 98-99 27.4 95.5 18.9 26.4 155.9 1.0 35.9 5.6 287.3 376.1 6164 6.1 99-2000 22.6 95.5 18.9 7.9 204.2 1.6 35.9 5.6 335.6 391.7 6424 6.1 lllJ-OI 12.2 95.5 Ill.9 8.0 204.2 1.6 •35.9 5.6 335.6 381.4 6489 5.9 01-02 11.0 95.5 18.9 8.1 204.2 1.6 35.9 5.6 335.6 380.3 6555 5.6 02-03 4.8 95.5 lB.9 9.3 204.2 1.6 35.9 5.6 335.6 375.3 6620 5.7 03-04 4.8 95.5 18.9 10.6 204.2 1.6 35.9 5.6 335.6 376.6 6686 5.6 0-1-05 3.6 95.5 18.9 12.0 204.2 1.6 35.9 5.6 335.6 376.8 6751 5.6 05-06 3.6 95.5 18.9 13.2 204.2 1.6 35.9 5.6 335.6 378.0 6817 5.5 06-07 3.6 95.5 IB.9 14.6 204.2 1.6 35.9 5.6 335.6 379.4 6882 5.5 07-08 3.6 .95.5 lB.9 16.0 204.2 1.6 35.9 5.6 335.6 380.8 6948 5.5 08-09 3.6 95.5 18.9 17.4 204.2 1.6 35.9 5.6 335.6 382.2 7013 5.4 U9-10 3.6 95.5 lB.9 18.9 204.2 1.6 35.9 5.6 335.6 383.7 7079 5.4 10-11 3.6 95.5 18.9 20.4 204.2 1.6 35.9 5.6 335.6 385.2 7144 5.4 TABLE 4.6.Anchorage-Cook Inlet Area,Low Load Growth Scenario,Case 3,5%Inflation New Hydroelectric Transmission Total Cost New Coal Fired Capa£!!y Costs Systems Total Total Total System of Existing riWes tmeiit--o"MfR Coa".loves tmeii"tOM&R-Investment ~~-Investment System Consumption,Average Power ~Capac!ty ~-Costs Costs Costs Costs ~-~Costs Costs,$MMKWIl Costs,<//KWIl 78-79 29.7 ---------------0.7 0.4 ---30.8 2376 1.3 79-80 39.1 ---------------0.7 0.4 ---40.1 2568 .1.6 80-81 45.7 ---------------0.7 0.4 ---46.8 2706 1.7. 81-8?47.9 ---------------0.7 0.5 ---49.1 2850 1.7 82-83 59.5 ------3.1 ------0.7 0.5 ---63.9 2991 2.1 83-84 63.6 ------3.3 ------0.7 0.5 ---68.1 3132 2.2 84-85 68.7 ------3.3 ------0.7 0.5 ---73.3 3273 2.2 85-86 68.9 2.0 0.4 3.6 14.8 0.6 0.7 0.5 17.5 90.8 3433 2.6 86-67 69.3 2.0 0.4 3.9 14.8 0.6 0.7 0.5 17 .5 92.7 3594 2.6 87-86 67.1 46.6 9.2 7.3 14.8 0.6 24.1 5.4 85.5 175.2 3754 4.7 88-89 60.6 46.6 9.7 11.1 14.8 0.6 24.1 5.7 85.5 173.2 39'15 4.4 89-90 56.4 95.7 19.9 20.1 14.8 0.7 24.1 6.0 134.6 237.8 4075 5.8 90-91 52.5 95.7 20.9 26.6 14.6 0.7 24.1 6.3 134.6 243.6 4285 5.7 91-92 49.8 111.1 24.8 35.3 14.8 0.7 58.?8.4 184.1 303.1 4495 6.7 <Xlw 92-93 47.4 111.1 26.1 42.5 14.8 '0.8 58.2 6.8 184.1 309.7 4705 6.6 93"94 46.5 170.8 29.2 56.9 14.8 0.8 50.2 9.3 243.8 396.5 4915 8.1 94-95 48.5 170.8 41.1 31.7 319.9 2.1 58.2 9.7 548:9 682.0 5125 13.3 95-96 43.8 110.0 43.2 35.0 319.9 2.2 58.2 10.?540.9 633.3 5385 1?.7 96-97 36.3 170.8 45.4 47.4 319.9 2.3 56.2 10.7 548.9 691.0 5645 12.2 97-98 37.7 170.8 47.6 56.9 319.9 2.4 5i1.2 11.3 548.9 704.8 5904 11.9 98-99 37.5 170.8 W.O 68.1 319.9 2.5 56.2 11.8 548.9 718.8 6164 11.7 99-2000 31.7 170.8 52.5 15.4 449.7 4.2 56.2 12.4 678.7 794.9 6424 12.4 00-01 16.7 170.8 55.0 .16.3 449.7 4.5 58.2 13.5 67f1.7 784.8 5489 12.1 01-02 15.3 1/0.8 57.9 17.4 449.7 4.7 5f}'?'13.7 678.7 787.7 6555 12.0 02-03 5.4 170.8 60.6 21.2 449.7 4.9 58.2 14 .4 676.7 785.4 6620 11.9 03-04 5.5 170.8 63.8 25.1 449.7 5.2 58.2 15.1 678.7 793.4 ~686 11.9 04-05 3.6 170.8 67.0 29.9 449.7 5.4 58.2 15.9 678.7 800.5 6751 !l.9 05-06 3.7 170.8 70.4 34.3 449.7 5.7 58.2 16.7 678.7 809.5 6816 11.9 06-07 3.9 170.8 73.9 40.0 449.7 6.0 58.2 17 .5 678.7 820.0 6882 11.9 07-08 4.0 170 ..8 77 .6 45.9 449.7 6.3 58.2 18.4 678.7 830.9 6948 11.9 Ofl-09 4.1 170.8 Ill.5 52.4 449.7 6.6 58.2 19.3 &78.7 842.6 7013 12.0 09-10 4.2 170.8 8S.5 59.7 449.7 6.9 58.2 20.2 678.7 855.2 7079 12.1 10-11 4.4 170.8 89.8 67 .~449.7 7.3 58.2 21.3 678.7 869.0 7144 12.2 TABLl~4.7.Anchorage-Cook Inlet Area,Medium Load Growth Scenario,Case 1,0%Inflatioh New l~droelectrfc Transmfsslon Total Cost _1!.£!i.Coa I Hred Capac!t y 1 -Costs Systems Total Total Total System of Existing Investment O~l&R Coa Investment OM&R Investment ON&R Investment System Consumptfon,Average Power ~Capac1 ty ~tL-~Costs Costs ~osts -~-~Costs Costs,$HMKWH Co~.!ili!L 78-79 33.1 ---------------.6 .4 ---34.1 2531 1.3 79-80 42.2 ---------------.6 .4 ---43.2 2801 1.5 80-81 48.2 ---------------.6 .4 ---49.2 3041 1.6 81-82 52.8 ---------------.6 .4 ---53.8 3281 1.6 82-83 61.1 28.7 5.7 6.5 ------.6 .4 29.3 103.0 3521 2.9 83-84 62.0 28.7 5.7 9.2 ------.6 .4 29.3 106.6 3761 2.8 84-85 66.7 28.7 5.7 11.8 ------.6 .4 29.3 114.0 4001 2.8 85-86 66.7 58.7 11'.6 18.5 10.9 .4 17.1 3.6 86.7 187.6 4329 4.3 86-87 67.2 58.7 11.6 24.19 10.9 ..4 17.1 3.6 86.7 193.7 4657 4.2 87-88':66.4 87.4 17 .3 29.9 10.9 0.4 17.1 3.6 .115.4 233.0 4985 4.7 88-89 59.0 87.4 17.3 36.2 10.9 0.4 17.1 3.6 115.4 231.9 5313 4.4 89-90 54.5 116.1 23.0 46.4 10.9 ,0.4 17.1 3.6 144.1 272.0 5641 4.8 90-91 50.2 116.1 23.0 52.9 10.9 0.4 17.1 3.6 144.1 274.2 6063 4.5 9J-92 47.1 152.9 30.3 61.9 JO.9 0.4 17.1 3.6 180.9 324.2 6485 5.0 00 I .j::>92-93 42.4 202.8 40.J 70.2 JO.9 0.4 J7.1 3.6 230.8 387.5 6907 5.6 93-94 38.9 202.8 40.J 77.9 JO.9 0.4 17.J 3.6 230.8 39J.7 7329 5.3 94-95 39.4 202.8 40.J 84.6 10.9 0.4 17 .1 3.6 230.8 398.9 7751 5.J 95-95 34.5 252.7 49.9 9·1 6 JO.9 0.4 17.1 3.6 2BO.7 463.7 83lJ 5.6 96-97 28.3 302.6 59.7 106.8 10.9 0.4 33.5 6.8 347.0 549.0 8871 6.2 97-9B 25.4 352.5 69.5 116.9 10.9 0.4 33.5 6.8 396.9 615.9 9431 6.5 98-99 27.4 353.5 69.5 126.7 10.9·0.4 33.5 6.3 396.9 627.7 999J 6.3 99-2000 22.6 402.4 79.3 138.5 10.9 0.4 33.5 6.B 446.8 694.4 1055J 6.6 OO-OJ J2.2 402.4 79.3 146.3 .10.9 0.4 33.5 6.3 446.8 691.8 10863 6.4 OJ-02 JI.O 402.4 79.3 1~.~..3 10.9 0.4 33.5 6.B 446.8 698.6 ;1175 6.3 02-03 4.8 452.3 89.1 J62.5 10.9 0.4 33.5 6.8 496.7 760.3 11437 6.6 03-0'1 4.8 452.3 89.1 J70.7 JO.9 0.4 33.5 6.8 496.7 767.9 11799 6.5 04-05 3.6 452.3 89.1 179.4 10.9 0.4 33.5 6.8 496.7 776.0 121Jl 6.4 05-06 3.6 502.2 98.9 J88.0 10.9 0.4 50.0 10.0 563.1 864.0 J2423 6.9 06-07 3.6 502.2 98.9 196 8 JO.9 0.4 50.0 .10.0 50.1 B72.8 12735 6.8 07-08 3.6 502.2 98.9 205.9 10.9 0.4 50.0 10.0 56.!.1 881.9 13047 6.8 Ofl-09 3.6 9fl.9 215.1 10.9 0.4 50.0 10.0 563.J fl9J .1 J3359 6.7 09-10 3.6 502.2 9/l.9 224.6 10.9 0.4 50.0 JO.O 563.J 9;;1.6 1367J 6.6 10-Jl 3.6 552.1 10n.7 i'34.2 10.9 0.4 50.0 JO.O 6J3.0 969.9 139B3 6.9 TABLE 4.8.Anch~rage-Cook Inlet Area,Medium Load Growth Scenario,Case 1,5%Inflation-----_. New Hydroelectric Transmlss Ion Total Cost New Coal fir~~.capac~~_Costs Systems Total Total Total System of Existing Investment OH&R oa Investment OM&1l Investment ~Investment System Consumption,Average Power ~!!:-~.ill!L-Costs .91ill Costs _Costs _Costs JQit.L-Costs Costs Costs,$"'J~KWfl Costs,¢!KWII 78-79 29:7 ---------------0.7 0.4 ---30.8 2531 1.2 79-80 39.1 ---------------0.7 0.4 ---40.2 2801 1.4 1l0-81 45.7 ---------------0.7 0.4 ---46.8 3041 1.5 81-82 47.9 ---------------0.7 0.5 ---49.1 3281 1.5 82-83 59.5 34.9 6.9 6.5 ------0.7 0.5 35.6 109.1 3521 3.1 83-84 63.6 34.9 7.2 9.2 -----0.7 0.5 35.6 116.1 3761 3.1 84-85 611.7 34.9 7.6 11.8 ------0.7 0.5 35.6 124.3 4001 3.1 85-86 fill.9 77.3 16.4 18.1 14.6 0.6 .23.0 4.9 115.1 .224.0 4329 5.2 86-B7 69.8 77.3 17.2 25.3 14.8 0.6 23.0 5.1 115.1 233.2 4657 5.0 87-88 67.1 121.9 26.8 32.7 14.8 0.6 23.0 5.4 159.7 292.3 4985.5.9 88-89 60.6 121.9 28.2 41.6 14.8 0.6 23.0 5.7 159.7 296.5 5313 5.6 89-90 56.4 171.0 39.3 56.3 14.8 0.7 23.0 6.0 208.8 367.5 5641 6.5 99-91 52.5 171.0 41.3 67.3 14.8 0.7 23.0 6.3 208.8 376.9 6063 6.2 91-92 49.8 240.6 56.9 82.2 14.8 0.7 23.0.6.6 278.4 474.6 6485 7.3 00 (J'I 92-93 47.4 339.5 79.2 98.6 14.8 0.8 23.0 6.9 377 .3 608.6 6907 8.8 93-94 46.5 339.5 63.2 113.9 14.8 0.3 23.0 7.2 377 .3 628.9 7329 8.6 94-95 48.5 339.5 87.3 130.1 14.8 0.9 23.0 7.6 377.3 659.3 7751 8.5 95-96 43.8 454.0 114.2 153.3 14.8 0.9 23.0 8.0 491.8 812.0 8311 9.7 96-97 36.3 574.2 143.5 WO.8 14.8 0.9 63.0 16.0 652.0 1029.5 11871 11.6 97-98 37.7 700.4 175.5 207.2 14.8 1.0 63.0 16.6 778.2 1216.2 9431 12.9 98-99 37.5 700.4 184.2 236.7 14.8 1.0 63.0 17.4 778.2 1255.0 9991 12.6 99-2000 31.8 639.5 220.8 269.7 14.8 1.1 63.0 18.3 917.3 1459.0 10551 13.8 00-01 16.7 839.5 231.8 300.2 14.8 1.1 63.0 19.2 917.3 1486.3 10863 13.7 01-02 15.3 839.5 243.4 331.2 14.8 1.2 63.0 20.2 917.3 1528.6 11175 13.7 02-03 5.4 1000.6 287.2 368.3 14.8 1.3 63.0 21.2 1078.4 1761.8 11487 15.3 03-04 5.5 1000.6 301.5 405.2 14.8 1.3 63.0 22.2 1076.4 1314.1 11799 15.4 04-05 3.6 1000.6 316.6 446.6 J4.8 1.4 63.0 23.3 1078.4 1869.9 12111 15.4 05-06 3.7 1187.1 369.0 490.4 14.8 1.5 116.7 34.9 1319.6 22111.1 12423 17.8 06-07 3.9 1187.1 387.5 53H.4 14.8 1.5 116.7 36.6 1318.6 22116.5 12735 17.9 07-08 4.0 1I1l7.406.8 590.9 14.11 1.6 116.7 38.5 1318.6 2360.4 13047 13.1 08-09 4.1 1187.1 427.2 648.1 14.8 1.7 116.7 40.4 1318.6 2440.1 13359 10.3 09-10 4.2 1107.1 440.5 710.1 14.11 1.0 116.7 42.4 1318.6 2525.6 13671 13.5 10-11 4.4 1425.1 517.7 777.3 14.8 1.9 116.7 44.6 1556.6 2902.5 13983 20.7 TABLE 4.9.Anchorage-Cook Inlet Area,Medium Load Growth Scenario,Case 2,0%Inflation :.:New Ilydt'oe 1ectric Transmission Total Cost llew Coal fired Capacity Costs Systems Total Total Total System of Existing Investment Of1&R Coal Investment OM&R Investment OM&R Investment System Consumptf on.Average Power -'!'ea!...-Capacf ty ~!.L-.fosts Costs Costs Costs Costs Costs Costs Costs.t MMKWIl Cos ts.ttl KWH 78-79 33.1 ------ ---------0.6 0.4 ---34.1 2531 1.3 79-80 42.2 ---------------0.6 0.4 ---43.2 2801 1.5 80-81 48.<!---------------0.6 0.4 ---49.2 3041 1.6 81-82 52.ll ---------------0.6 0.4 ---53.8 3281 1.6 82-d3 61.1 28.7 5,7 6.5 ------0.6 0.4 29.3 103.0 3521 2.9 H3-84 62.0 28.7 5.7 9.2 ------0.6 0.4 29.3 106.6 3761 2.8 H4-85 66.7 28.7 5.7 11.8 ------0.6 0.4 29.3 114.0 4001 .2.8 85-86 66.7 58.7 11.6 18.5 10.9 0.4 17.1 3.6 86.7 187.6 4329 4.3 86-87 67.2 58.7 11.6 24.19 10.9 0.4 17 .1 3.6 86.7 193.7 4657 4.2 87-88 66.4 87.4 17.3 29.9 10.9 0.4 17.1 3.6 115.4 233.0 4985 4.7 !l8-fJ9 59.0 87.4 17.3 36.2 10.9 0.4 17.1 3.6 115.4 231.9 5313 .4.4 89-90 54.5 87.4 17 .3 42.5 10.9 0.4 35.9 5.6 134.2 254.5 5641 4.5 90-91 50.2 116.1 24.6 50.1 10.9 0.4 35.9 5.6 162.9 293.8 6063 4.8 91-92 47.1 152.9 31.9 59.1 10.9 0.4 35.9 5.6 199.7 343.8 6485 5.3 COm 92-93 42.4 202.8 41.7 70.2 10.9 0.4 35.9 5.6 249.6 409.9 6907 5.9 93-94 38.9 202.8 41.7 77.9 10.9 0.4 35.9 5.6 249.6 414.1 7329 5.6 94-95 39.4 202.8 41.7 84.6 10.9 0.4 35.9 5.6 249.6 421.3 7751 5.4 95-96 34.5 252.7 51.5 94.6 10.9 0.4 35.9 5.6 299.5 4B6.1 8311 5.8 96-97 28.3 Cl02.6 61.3 106.8 10.9 0.4 52.4 ll.fJ 365.9 571.5 8e71 6.4 97-98 25.4 302.6 61.3 1]6.9 10.9 0.4 52.4 a.B 365.9 578.7 9431 6.1 98-99 27.4 352.5 71.1 126.7 10.9 0.4 52.i1 8.8 415.0 650.2 9991 6.5 99-2000 22.6 352.5 71.1 13il.5 10.9 0.4 52.4 0.0 415.0 657.2 10551 6.2 00-01 12.2 402.4 80.9 146.3 10.9 0.4 52.4 IL8 465.7 714.3 101163 6.6 01-02 11.0 402.4 00.9 154.3 10.9 0.4 62.4 8.ll 465.7 721.1 11175 6.4 02-03 4.8 402.4 80.9 162.5 10.9 0.4 52.4 .fLO 465.7 723.1 11407 6.3 03-04 3.6 452.3 90.7 170.7 10.9 0.4 52.4 3.n 515.6 7il9.0 11799 6.7 04-05 3.6 1,52.3 90.7 179.4 10.9 0.4 52.4 B.3 515.6 79lJ.5 12111 6.6 05-06 3.6 452.3 90.7 1Il1J.0 10.9 0.4 52.4 n.il 515.6 e07.1 12423 6.5 06-07 3.6 452.3 90.7 196.3 10.9 0.4 52.4 6.6 515.6 elG.9 12/35 6.4 07·08 3.6 502.2 100.5 205.9 10.9 0.4 Gil.9 12.0 522.0 904.4 130·17 6.9 03-09 3.6 502.2 100.5 215.1 10.9 0.4 GLJ.9 12.0 502.0 913.6 13359 6.0 09-10 3.6 502.2 100.5 224.6 10.9 0.4 en.9 12.0 532.0 923.1 13671 G.7 10-11 3.6 50U:100.5 234.2 10.9 C.4 (ifI.9 12.0 502.0 032.7 1391J3 6.7 TABLE 4.10.Anchorage-Cook Inlet Area,Medium Load Growth Scenario,Case 2,5%Inflation-------- Ne\~lIydroe 1ectri c Transmission Total Cost NllW Coal Fir'ed capac~~Costs S.u!eOls Total Total Total System of Existing Investment llFl&1f oa -loves tmentoT.f&r I nves tmen-t-OM"&r Investment System Consumption,Average Power _Year Capacity Costs Costs Costs Costs Costs Costs Costs ....f9.llL..-Costs,$~~Costs,UKWII_ 78-79 29.7 ---------------.0.7 0.4 ---30.8 2531 1.2 79-80 39.1 ---------------0.7 0.4 ---40.2 2801 1.~ 80-81 45.7 ---------------0.7 0.4 ---46.8 3041 1:5 81-82 47.9 ---------------0.7 0.5 ---49.1 3281 1.5 82-83 59.5 34.9 6.9 6.5 ------0.7 0.5 35.6 109.1 3521 3.1 83-84 63.6 34.9 7.2 9.2 -----0.7 0.5 35.6 116.1 3761 3.1 84-85 68.7 34.9 7.6 11.8 ------0.7 0.5 35.6 124'.3 4001 3.1 85·8.6 68.9 77.3 16.4 18.1 14.3 0.6 23.0 4.9 115.1 224.0 4329 5.2 86-l17 69.8 77.3 17.2 25.3 14.8 0.6 23.0 5.1 115.1 233.2 4657 5.0 S7-BS 67.1 W.9 26.8 32.7 14.0 0.6 23.0 5.4 159.7 292.3 4985'5.9 88-89 60.6 121.9 20.2 41.6 14.0 0.6 23.0 5.7 159.7 296.5 5313 5.6 89-90 56.4 121.9 29.6 51.5 14.8 0.7 53.9 9.3 190.6 338.1 !;641 6.0 90-9l 52.5 173.6 4\.3 63.7 14.0 0.7 53.9 9.7 242.2 410.1 6063 6.8 CO 91-92 49.8 243.1 56.9 78.3 14.8 0.7 53.9 10.2 311.8 507.8 6485 7.8 '-l 92-93 47.4 342.0 79.2 98.5 '14.8 0.8 53.9 10.7 410.7 647.4 6901 9.4 93·94 46.5 342.0 83.2 113.8 14.8 0.8 53.9 11.3 410.7 666.4 7329 9.1 94-95 40.5 342.0 87.3 130.1 14.8 0.9 53.9 11.8 410.7 689.3 7751 8.9 95-96 43.8 465.5 114.2 153.3 14.8 0.9 53.9 12.4 534.2 858.8 8311 10.3 96-97 36.5 576.7 143.5 180.8 14.8 0.9 93.9 20.9 685.4 1067.8 8871 12.0 97-98 37.7 576.7 150.6 207.1 14.0 1.0 93.9 21.9 685.4 1103.0 9431 11.7 98-99 37.5 709.2 184.2 2J6.6 14.8 1.0 93.9 23.0 817.9 1300.3 9991 13.0 99-2000 31.7 709.2 193.4 269.7 14.0 1.1 93.9 24.2 817.9 1338.1 10551 12.7 00-01 16.7 055.3 231.7 300.2 14.8 1.1 93.9 25.4 964.0 1539.1 10063 14 .2 01-02 15.3 855.3 243.3 331.2 14.8 1.2 93.9 26.7 964 .0 1581.7 11175 14.1. 02-03 5.4 955.3 225.5 368.3 14.0 1.3 93.9 211.0 964.0 1592.5 11407 13.9 03-04 5.5 1024.4 301.5 405.2 14.0 1.3 93.9 29.4 1133.1 1876.0 11799 15.9 04-05 3.6 1024.4 316.6 446.6 14.0 1.4 93.9 30.9 1133.1 1932.2 12111 15.9 05-06 3.7 1024.4 332.4 490,4 14.0 1.5 93.9 32.4 1133.1 '1993.5 12423 16.0 06-07 3.9 1024.4 3'19.0 530.4 14.8 1.5 93.9 34.0 1133.1 2059.9 12735 16.2 07-08 4.0 1230.0 406.8 590.9 14.8 1,6 148.9 46.7 1393.7 2443.7 13047 18.7. 08-09 4.1 1230.0 427.1 Mil.1 14.8 1.7 14B.9 49.0 1393.7 2523.7 13359 18.9 09-10 4.2 1230.0 44&.4 710.1 1-1.8 1.8 148.9 51.5 1393.7 2609.7 13671 19.1 10·11 4.4 1230.0 470.8 777.3 14.8 1.9 148.9 54.1 1393.7 2702.2 13983 19.3 TABLE 4.11-Anchorage-Cook Inlet Area,Medium Load Growth Scenario,Case 3,0%Inflation-----_._- NelIIlydroe1ectr1c Transmiss10n Total Cost _!lew Coal f1r~Capaclli__Costs ~stems __Total Total Total System of Existing Investment OH&R Coal Investment ---rn:i&R Investment OH&R Inves tment System Consumption,Average Power ....!'!~Capac fty _Cos t.t_f~li Costs _--.fasts _Costs ~!L-Costs Costs Costs,$H!1J<1i1l ~ost~,UJ<WH 73-79 33.1 ---------1.0 ------------34.1 2531 79-80 42.2 ---------1.0 ------------43.2 2801 tiO-81 73.2 ---------1.0 ------------49.2 3041 81-82 52.8 ---------1.0 ------------53.8 3281 82-83 61.\211.7 5.7 6.5 1.0 ------'---29.3 103.0 3521 83-114 62.0 2il.7 5.7 9.2 1.0 ---------29.3 106.6 3761 84-85 66.6 28.7 5.7 \1.8 20.7 ---------29.3 114.0 4001 85-86 66.7 58.7 11.6 18.4 20.7 ---------86.7 187.6 4329 do-87 67.1 58.7 11.6 24.\20.7 ---------86.7 193.7 LI 657 87-88 66.3 il7.4 17.3 30.1 20.7 ---------lIS .LI 233.0 LI 985 Btl-89 59.0 87.4 17.3 36.2 10.9 0.4 17 .1 3.6 115.4 231.9 5313 4.4 89-90 54.5 87.4 17 .3 42.5 10.9 0.4 35.9 5.6 134.2 254.5 5641 4.5 90-91 50.2 116.1 24.6 50.\10.9 0.4 35.9 5.6 162.9 293.8 6063 4.8 (X)91-92 47.1 152.9 31.9 59.1 10.9 0.4 35.9 5.6 199.7 343.8 6485 5.3 CO 92-93 42.4 202.8 41.7 70.2 10.9 0.4 35.9 5.6 249.6 409.9 6907 5.9 93-94 38.9 202.8 41.7 77.9 10.9 0.4 35.9 5.6 24 9.6 414.1 7329 5.6 94-95 39.4 202.8 41.7 53.3 157.7 1.1 35.9 5.6 396.4 537.5 7751 6.9 95-96 31.5 202.8 41.7 58.6 157.7 1.1 35.9 5.6 396.4 537.9 8311 6.5 96-97 28.3 202.8 41.7 69.9 157.7 1.1 35.9 5.6 396.4 543.0 8e71 6.1 97-98 25.4 202.8 41.7 79.1 157.7 1.1 35.9 5.6 396.4 549.3 943\5.8 93-99 27.4 202.8 41.7 54.5 206.6 1.8 35.9 5.6 445.3 576.3 9991 5.8 99-2000 22.6 202.8 41.7 60.2 206.6 1.8 35.9 5.6 445.3 577 .2 10.551 5.5 00-01 12.2 202.8 41.7 66.8 206.6 1.8 35.9 5.6 445.3 573.4 10 .863 5.3 01-02 \1.0 202.8 41.7 73.\206.6 1.8 35.9 5.6 445.3 5711.5'11,175 5.2 02-03 4.8·252.7 51.5 80.0 206.6 1.8 52.4 8.8 511.7 658.6 11.487 5.7 03-04 4.11 252.7 51.5 86.5 206.6 1.8 52.4 8.8 511.7 665.1 11,799 5.6 04-05 3.6 252.7 51.5 93.4 206.6 1.8 52.4 8.8 5\1.7 670.8 12,111 5.5 05-06 3.6 252.7 51.5 100.2 206.6 1.8 52.4 8.8 511.7 677 .6 12,423 5.4 06-07 3.6 302.6 61.3 107.3 206.6 1.8 52.4 8.8 561.6 .744.4 12,735 5.8 07-08 3.6 302.6 61.3 114.5 206.6 1.8 52.4 8.8 561.6 751.6 \3.047 5.8 01l-09 3.6 302.6 61.3 121.9 206.6 1.8 52.4 B.8 561.6 759.0 13,359 5.7 09-10 3.6 302.6 61.3 129.6 206.6 1.8 52.4 B.8 561.1i 766.7 13,671 5.6 10-11 3.6 352.5 71.1 137.5 206.6 1.8 52.4 8.8 611.5 B34.3 n,g8]5.9 TABLE 4.12.Anchorage-Cook Inlet Area,Medium Load Grow~h Scenario,Case 3,5%Inflation Nt!\4 Ilydroelectric Transmission Total Cost New Coal Fired Capacity Costs ~tems Total Total Total System of Existing ]nves tnientol1&R Coa 1 Investment --oi:f.fR nvestment----OM1rR--Investment System Consumption,Average Power VeaL Capacity Costs Costs Cos~_s _~!L...-.Costs Costs Costs Costs Costs,$MHKWH Costs,~ 78-79 29.7 .0.7 0.4 30.8 2531 1.2------------------ 79-80 39.1 ------.---------0.7 0.4 ---40.2 2801 1.4 80-81 45.7 ---------------0.7 0.4 ---46.8 3041 1.5 81-82 47.9 ---------------0.7 0.5 ---49.1 32111 1.5 82-83 59.5 34.9 6.9 6.5 ------0.7 0.5 35.6 109.1 3521 3.1 83-84 63.6 34.9 7.2 9.2 -----0.7 0.5 35.6 116.1 3761 3.1 84-85 68.7 34.9 7.6 11.8 ------0.7 0.5 35.6 124.3 4001 3.1 8~-il6 68.9 77 .3 16.4 18.1 14.3 0.6 23.0 4.9 115.1 224.0 4329 5.2 86-87 69.8 77.3 17.2 25.3 14.8 0.6 23.0 5.1 115.1 233.2 4657 5.0 UHI8 67.1 121.9 26.U 32.7 14.0 0.6 23.0 5.4 159.7 .292.3 4985 5.9 88-89 60.6 121.9 28.2 41.6 14.8 0.6 23.0 5.7 159.7 296.5 5313 5.6 89-90 56.4 121.9 29.6 51.5 14.8 0.7 53.9 9.3 190.6 330.1 5641 6.0 90-91 52.5 173.5 41.3 63.7 14.0 0.7 53.9 9.7 242.2 410.1 6063 6.8 91-92 49.0 243.1 56.9 78.3 14.8 0.7 53.9 10.2 311.0 507.0 6405 7.0 (X)79.2 14.0 53.9 10.7 410.7 647.4 6907to92-93 •47.4 342.0 98.5 0.0 9.4 93-9·1 46.5 342.0 03.2 113.iJ 14.0 0.8 53:9 11.3 410.7 666.4 7329 9.1 94-95 40.5 3·12.0 lJ7.4 82.1 323.7 2.4 53.9 11.0 119.6 951.0 7751 12.3 95-96 43.8 342.0 91.7 94.9 323.7 2.5 53.9 12.4 719.6 964.9 0311 11.6 96-97 36.3 342.0 96.3 lW.3 323.7 2.7 53.9 13.0 719.6 986.2 8871 11.1 97-98 37.7 342.0 101.1 140.2 323.7 2.8 53.9 13.7 719.6 1015.1 9431 10.8 98-99 37.5 )·12.0 106.2 101.8 448.8 4.4 53.9 14.3 844.7 1109.0 9991 11.1 99-2000 31.7 342.0 111.5 117.2 448.8 4.6 53.9 15.1 844.7 1124.8 10,551 10.7 00-01 16.7 342.0 117.1 137.1 440.8 4.9 53.9 15.8 844.7 11 36.3 10,863 10.5 01-02 15.3 342.0 122.9 156.8 448.8 5.1 53.9 16.6 844.7 1161.4 11,175 10.4 02-03 5.4 503.J 160.7 181.4 440.8 5.4 104.9 26.9 1056.0 1436.6 11,487 12.5 03-04 5.5 503.1 168.7 205.3 448.0 5.6 104.9 28.2 1056.0 1470.1 11,799 J2.4 04-05 3.6 503.J 177.1 232.5 440.0 5.9 104.9 29.6 1056.0 1505.5 12,lll 12.4 05-06 3.7 503.1 185.9 261.4 448.8 6.2 104.9 31.1 1056.8 1545.1 12,423 12.4 06-07 3.9 698.9 233.7 293.5 448.8 6.5 104.9 32.7 1252.6 1822.9 12,735 14.3 07-08 4.0 698.9 245.4 328.7 448.0 6.0 104.9 34.3 1252.6 1871.8 13,047 14.3 08-09 4.1 6911.9 257.6 367.5 448.11 7.2 J04.9 36.0 1252.6 J925.0 13,359 14.4 09-10 4.2 698.9 270.5 40~.9 448.8 7.5 104.9 37.8 1252.6 1982.2 13,671 14.5 10-11 4.4 936.9 330.7 456.3 448.8 7.9 104.9 39.7 1490.6 2329.6 13,9113 16.7 TABLE 4.13.Anchorage-Cook Inlet Area.High Load Growth Scenario.Case 1,0%Tnflation Ncw llydroe1ectric Transmi ss jon Tota 1 Cos t New Coal Fired Ca~~Costs ~stems Total Total Total Systcm of Existing TriVestment OFa~oa lnves fiilelit---nf.mr-nves tnienf-O~f&lr Investmcnt System Consumption.Avcragc Power ...:!.~Capaci ty -.fQi.t_s_Costs CostL-....Costs Costs Costs Costs Cosli.....-.Costs.$--.!'!J'1KWH _Costs,¢/KIJH 78-79 33.1 ---------------0.6 0.4 ---34.1 2680 1.3 79-80 42.2 ---------------0.6 0.4 ---43.2 3025 1.4 80-81 48.2 ---------------0.6 0.4 ---49.2 3688 1.3 81-82 52.8 ---------------0.6 0.4 ---53.8 4352 1.2 82-83 61.1 57.4 11.4 9.8 ------17.1 3.6 74.5 160.5 5015 3.2 83-134 62.0 86.1 17 .1 16.6 ------17.1 3.6 103.2 204.5 5679 3.6 84-85 66.7 114.8 22.8 29.9 ------17.I 3.6 131.9 254.9 6342 4.0 85-66 66.7 144.8 28.7 44.8 10.9 0.4 17.1 3.6 142.6 317.0 6849 4.6 86-87 67.2 164.7 38.5 66.2 10.9 0.4 17.1 3.6 192.7 368.6 7357 5.0 87-88 66.4 164.7 38.5 73.4 10.9 0.4 17.1 3.6 192.7 375.0 7864 4.8 88-89 59.0 214.6 48.3 81.2 10.9 0.4 33.6 6.8 259.1 454.8 8372 5.4 89-90 54.5 214.6 48.3 88.6 10.9 0.4 33.6 6.8 259.1 457.7 8079 5.1 90-91 50.2 214.6 413.3 98.5 10.9 0.4 33.6 6.8 259.1 463.3 95119 4.8 \.0 91-92 47.1 272.6 59.7 109.9 10.9 0.4 33.6 6.8 317 .1 541.0 10,298 5.2 0 92-93 42.4 322.5 69.5 120.1 10.9 0.4 33.6 6.8 367.0 606.2 11.008 5.5 93-94 38.9 322.5 69.5 132.6 10.9 0.4 33.6 6.8 367.Q 615.2 11,717 5.3 94-95 39.4 372.4 79.3 143.9 10.9 0.4 33.6 6.8 416.9 686.7 12.427 5.5 95-96 34.5 422.3 89.1 161.3 10.9 0.4 50.1 10.0 4113.3 778.6 13,477 5.8 96-97 28.3 472.2 98.9 181.5 10.9 0.4 50.1 10.0 533.2 852.3 14,526 5.9 97-9[\25.4 522.1 108.7 200.1 10.9 0.4 50.1 10.0 583.1 927.7 15,576 6.0 98-99 27.4 572.0 118.5 217.9 10.9 0.4 50.1 10.0 633.0 1008.2 16,625 6.1 99-2000 22.6 621.9 128.3 238.7 10.9 0.4 66.6 13.2 699.4 1102.6 17,675 6.2 00-01 12.2 671.8 138.1 256.6 10.9 0.4 66.6 13.2 749.3 1169.8 1Il,584 6.3 01-02 11.0 671.8 138.1 275.8 10.9 0.4 66.6 13.2 749.3 1187.8 19,493 6.1 02-03 4.8 721.7 147.9 294.6 10.9 0.4 66.6 13.2 799.2 1260.1 20,402 6.2 03-04 4.8 771.6 157.7 314.7 10.9 0.4 66.6 13.2 849.1 1339.9 21,311 6.3 04-05 3.6 771.6 157.7 335.6 10.9 0.4 66.6 13.2 649.1 1359.6 22,220 6.1 05-06 3.6 821.5 167.5 356.9 19.9 0.4 03.1 16.4 ,915.5 1460.3 23,129 6.3 06-07 3.6 071,4 177 .3 370.6 10.9 0.4 !l3.1 16.4 965.4 1541.9 24.030 6.4 07-08 3.6 871.4 177.3 401.2 10.9 0.4 83.1 16.4 965.4 1564.3 24,947 6.3 08-09 3.6 921.187.1 42'1.2 10.9 0.4 83.1 16.4 1015.3 1647.0 25,Il56 6.4 09-10 3.6 971.2 196.9 447.0 10.9 0.4 83.1 16.4 1065.2 1730.3 26,765 6.5 10-11 3.6 971.2 196.9 472.0 10.9 0.4 03.1 16.4 1065.2 1754.5 27,674 6.3 TABLE 4.14.Anchorage-Cook Inlet Area.High Load Growth Scenario.Case 1.5%Inflation New Hydroe1ectrfc Trllnsmfss Ion Total Cost New Coal Ffred capacf~Costs Systems Total Total Total System of EXfstfng Investment O~&R Coa Investment 0l:r&R I nves tmen t (jRIll"Investment System Consumption.Average Power ~.J:~llitL Costs Costs Cos~Costs _Costs Cost_s_Costs Costs Costs .J.Ml-lr-wH Costs,i/l<WH 78-79 29.7 ---------------0.7 0.4 ---30.8 2680 1.1 79-80 39.1 ------ ---------0.7 0.4 ---40.2 3025 1.3 80-81 45.7 ---------------0.7 0.4.---46.8 3688 1.3 81-82 47.9 ---------------0.7 0.5 ---49.1 435i 1.1 82-83 59.5 69.8 13.8 9.9 ------21.0 4.4 90.8 178.4 5015 3.6 83-84 63.6 106.4 21.8 18.6 ------21.0 4.6 127.4 236.0 5679 4.2 8'1-85 68.7 144.9 30.5 29.9 ------21.0 4.9 165.9 299.9 6342 4.7 85-86 68.9 187.3 38.!l 44.8 14.8 0.6 21.0 5.1 223.1 381.4 6849 5.6 86-87 69.8 261.1 49.2 •69.4 14.8 0.6 21.0 5.4 296.9 491.3 7356 6.7 87-88 67.1 261.1 51.7 80.5 14.11 0.6 21.0 5.6 296.9 502.4 7864 6.4 3il-S9 60.6 342.5 70.2 93.4 14.8 0-,6 48.1 11.2 405.4 641.4 8372 7.7 BY-90 56.4 342.5 73.7 107.4 14.8 0.7 48.1 11.7 405.4 655.3 8870 7.4 90-~1 52.5 342.5 77.4 125.4 14.8 0.7 48.1 12.3 405.4 673.7 9589 7.0 lD 91-92 49.8 452.1 102.6 145.9 14.8 0.7 48.1 12.9 515.0 826.9 10,298.8.0 92-93 47.4 551.0 127.2 168.5 14.8 0.8 48.1 13.6 613.9 971.4 11,008 8.8 93-94 46.5 551.0 133.5 193.8 14.8 0.8 48.1 14.3 613.9 1002.8 11,717 8.6 94-95 48.5 660.0 161.6 221.3 14.8 0.9 48.1 15.0 722.9 1)70.2 12,427 9.4 95-96 43.8 774.5 192.2 261.2 14 .8 0.9 87.1 22.7 876.4 1397.2 13,477 10.4 96-97 36.3 894.7 .225.4 307.4 14.8 0.9 87.1 23.9 996.6 1590.5 14,526 10.9 97-98 37.7 1020.9 261.5 354.5 14.8 1.0 87.1 25.1 1122.8 1602.6 15,576 11.6 98-99 37.5 1153.4 300.5 407.1 14.8 1.0 07.1 26.3 1255.3 2027.7 16,625 12.2 99-2000 31.7 1202.6 342.8 464.8 14.8 1.1 131.3 36.2 1438.7 2315.3 17,675 13.1 00-01 16.7 143B.7 38n.7 526.5 14.8 1.1 131.3 37.9 1584.8 2555.7 18,5134 13.8 01-02 15.3 1438.7 40tl.l 592.6 14.8 1.2 131.3 39.9 1584.8 2641.9 19,493 13.6 02-03 5.4 1599.8 460.1 667.5 14.8 1.3 131.3 41.9 1745.9 2922.1 20,402 14.3 03-04 5.5 1769.0 516.3 746.8 14.8 1.3 131.3 43.9 1915.1 3228.9 21,311 15.1 04-05 3.6 1769.0 542.?835.5 14.8 1.4 131.3 46.1 1915.1 3343.9 22,220 15.0 05-06 3.7 1955.5 605.9 930.8 14.8 1.5 104.3 58.4 2154.6 3754.9 23,129 16.2 06-07 3.9 2151.3 674.6 1035.9 14.8 1.5 184.3 61.3 2350.4 4127.6 24,038 17.2 07-0il 4.0 2151.3 70lU 1151.5 14.0 1.6 104.3 64.4 2350.4 4200.2 24,947 17.2 08-09 4.1 2361.2 7!J6.1 1270.1 14.8 1.7 104.3 67.6 2566.3 4703.9 25,056 l!l.2 09-10 4,2 2593.9 869.9 1416.3 14.8 1.8 184.3 70.9 2793.0 5156.1 26,765 19.3 10-11 4.4 2593.9 913.4 1566.6 14.8 1.9 184.3 14.5 2793.0 5353.8 27,674 19.3 TABLE 4.15.Anchorage-Cook Inlet Area,High Load Growth Scenario,Case 2,0%Inflation New Hydroelectric TransmissionTotalCostNewCoalfiredCapaciy__Costs __S~__Total Total Tota 1 Sys t"emofExlstfng~estment OM&R Coal Investment OHM Investment OM&R Investment System Consumption,Average Power~Capacity Costs Costs fQ~Costs_Costs Costs £Qili Costs Costs I $MMKlm Costs,¢!KWt/ 78-79 33.1 ---------------0.6 0 . 4 ---34.1 2680 1.379-80 42.2 ---------------0.6 0.4 ---43.2 3025 1.480-81 48.2 ---------------0.6 0.4 ---49.2 3688 1.31l1-82 52.3 ---------------0.6 0.4 ---53.8 4352 1.282-83 61.1 57.4 11.4 9.8 ------17.1 3.6 74.5 160.5 5015 3.283-84 62.0 86.1 17.1 18.6 ------17.1 3.6 103.2 204.5 .5679 3.6114-85 66.7 114.8 22.8 29.9 ------17.1 3.6 131.9 254.9 6342 4.0.85-86 66.7 144.8 28.7 44.8 10.9 0.4 17.1 3.6 142.8 317.0 6849 4.686-87 67.2 144.8 28.7 58.7 10.9 0.4 35.9 5.6 191.6 352.2 7357 4.887-88 66.4 194.7 33.5 73.4 10.9 0.4 35.9 5.6 241.5 420.8 7864 5.388-89 59.0 194.7 38.5 81.2 10.9 0.4 35.9 5.6 241.5 426.2 8372 5.r89-9u 54.5 244.6 43.3 88.6 10.9 0.4 52.4 3.8 307.9 508.5 8879 5.790-91 50.2 244.6 48.3 98.5 10.9 0.4 52.4 8.8 307.9 514.1 9589 5.4\.0 91-92 47.1 302.6 59.7 109.9 10.9 0.4 52.4 8.8 365.9 591.8 10 ,298 5.7N92-93 42.4 302.6 59.7 120.1 10.9 0.4 52.4·8.8 365.9 597.3 11,008 5,493-94 38.9 352.5 69.5 132.6 10.9 0.4 52.4 8.8 415.8 666.0 11 ,717 5.794-95 39.4 352.5 69.7 143.9 10.9 0.4 52.4 8.8 415.8 678.0 12,427 5.595·96 34.5 402.4 79.3 161.3 10.9 0.4 52.4 8.8 465.7 750.0 13,477 5.696-97 28.3 452.3 89.I I Ill.5 10.9 0.4 68.9 12.0 532.1 843.4 14,526 5.897-98 25.4 502.2 98.9 200.1 10.9 0.4 68.9 12.0 582.0 918.8 15,576 5.99fl-99 27.4 552.I 108.7 217.9 10.9 0.4 68.9 12.0 631.9 990.3 16,625 6.099-2000 22.6 602.0 118.5 2311.7 10.9 0.4 68.9 12.0 61ll.8 1074.0 17,675 6.100-01 12.2 651.9 1211.3 256.5 10.9 0.4 85.4 15.2 748.2 IIGO .3 10 .584 6.201-02 11.0 701.3 1311.I 275.3 10.9 0.4 85.4 15.2 791L I 1233.6 19,493 6.302-03 4.8 751.7 147.9 294.6 10.9 0.4 85.4 15.2 848.0 1310.9 20,402 6.40]-04 4.8 751.7 147.9 314.7 10.9 0.4 85.4 15.2 1148.0 1331.0 21,311 6.204-05 3.6 751.1 147.9 335.6 10.9 0,,4 85.4 15.2 840.0 1350.7 22,220 6.105-06 3.6 1)01.6 157.7 356.9 10.9 0.4 85.4 15.2 897.9 1431.7 23,129 6.206-01 •.6 851.5 167.5 378.8 10.9 0.4 85.4 15.2 947.0 1513.3 24.038 6.3901.4 177.3 401.2 10.9 18.4 I07-08 0.4 101.9 1014.2 1615.1 24.947 6.501J-09 3.6 901.4 177.3 424.2 10.9 0.4 101.9 18.4 !O14.2 1638.1 25.856 6.309-10 3.6 951.3 187.1 447.fJ 10.9 0.4 !OI.9 10.4 1064 .1 1721.4 26,765 6.410-11 3_6 1001.2 1'15.9 4n.O 10.9 0.4 101.9 11l.4 1114.0 1001.7 27.674 6.5 TABLE 4.16.Anchorage-Cook Inlet Area,High Load Growth Scenario,Case 2,5%Inflation New Hydroelectric TransQlI ss I 00 Tota 1 Cos t New Coal fired Capacity Costs Systems Total Total Total System of Existing 10vestment-nH&R Coal loves tmeoroM&R loves tm~&1r Investment System ConsumptIon,Average Power -.Y~Capll£UL...Costs Costs Costs Costs fQ.ili.~.~Costs Costs Costs,$MMKWIl Costs,t!KWIl 78-79 29.7 ---------------0.7 0.4 ---30.8 2680 1.1 79-80 39.1 --------- ------0.7 0.4 ---40.2 3025 1.3 80-81 45.7 ---------------0.7 0.4 ---46.8 3688 1.3 81-82 47.9 ---------------0.7 0.5 ---49.1 4352 1.1 82-83 59.5 69.8 13.8 9.9 --- --- 21.0 4.4 90.8 178.4 5015 3.6 83-84 63.6 106.4 21.8 18.6 ------21.0 4.6 127.4 236.0 5679 4.2 8~-85 68.7 144.9 30.5 29.9 ------21.0 4.9 165.9 299.9 6342 4.7 85-86 68.9 187.3 38.9 44.8 14.8 0.6 21.0 5.1 223.1 381.4 6849 5.6 116-87 69.8 187.3 40.8 61.5 14.8 0.6 47.7 8.1 249.8 430.6 4357 5.8 87-fJ8 67.1 264.8 58.0 80.5 14.8 0.6 47.1 8.6 327.3 542.1 7864 6.9 811-89 60.6 264.8 60.9 93.4 14.8 0.6 47.7 9.0 327.3 551.8 8372 6.6 89-90 56.4 350.2 80.8 107.4 14.8 0.7 74.8 14.7 439.8 699.8 8879 7.9 90-91 52.5 350.2 84.8 125.4 14.8 0.7 74.8 15.4 439.8 718.6 95B9 7.5 1.0 91-92 49.8 459.8 110.5 145.9 14.8 0.7 74.8 16.2 549.4 872.5 10,7.98 8.5 w 92-93 47.4 459.8 115.9 168.5 14.8 0.8 7·1.8 17.0 549.2 899.0 11 ,008 8.2 93-94 46.5 563.6 142.2 193.9 14 .8 0.8 74.8 17 .9 653.2 1054.5 11,717 9.0 9·1-95 48.5 563.6 149.3 221.3 14.8 0.9 74.8 18.8 563.2 1092.0 12,427 8.8 95-96 43.8 678.1 179.2 261.2 14.8 0.9 74.8 19.7 767.7 1272.5 13,477 9.4 96-97 36.3 798.3 211.8 307.4 14.8 0.9 113.8 27.7 926.9 1511.0 14,526 10:4 97-98 37.7 924.5 247.2 354.5 14.8 1.0 113.8 29.1 1053.1 lnl.6 15,576 11.1 98-99 37.5 1057.0 285.5 407.I 14.8 1.0 113.8 30.5 1185.6 1947.2 16,625 11.7 99-2000 31.7 1196.2 327.1 464.8 14.8 1.1 113.8 32.0 1324.8 2181.5 17,675 12.3 00-01 16.7 1342.3 372.2 526.5 14.8 1.1 160.2 42.6 1517.3 2476.4 18,584 13.3 01-02 15.3 1495.7 420.9 591.8 14.8 1.2 160.2 44.7 1670.7 2744.6 19,493 14 .1 02-03 5.4 1656.8 473.5 667.5 14.8 1.3 160.2 46.9 1831.8 3026.4 20,402 14.8 03-04 5.5 1656.8 497.2 746.8 lUI 1.3 160.2 49.3 11331.8 3131.9 21,311 14.7 04-05 3.6 1656.8 522.1 835.5 14.8 l.'I 160.2 51.8 1831.8 3246.2 22,220 14.6 05-06 3.7 1843.3 584.8 930.8 lUJ 1.5 160.2 54.4 2018.3 3593.5 23,129 15.5 06-07 3.9 2039.1 652.4 1035.9 14.3 1 f;160.2 57.1 2214.1 3964.9 24,038 16.5 07·08 4.0 2244.7 725.3 1151.5 14.8 1.6 215.c 70.9 2474.7 4426.0 24,947 17.7 08-09 4.1 2244.7 761.6 1278.I 14.8 1.7 215.2 74.5 2474.7 4594.7 25,856 17.8 09-10 4.2 2471.4 844.2 1416.3 14.11 1.8 215.2 76.2 2]01.4 5046.1 26,7G5 18.8 10-11 4.4 2709.4 933.1 1566.6 14.8 1.9 215.2 82.1 2939.4 5527.5 27,67'1 19.9 TABLE 4.17.Anchorage-Cook Inlet Area,High Load Growth Scenario,Case 3,0%Inflation----- New I~droelectric Transmission Tota 1 Cos t _New_Coal Fired CapacHy Costs ___21s t~.!L-.___Total Total Total System of Existing investment OM&R Coal Tr1Ves tmenr--N·f&iC Investment OM&R Investment System Consumption.Average Power ~!:.-~ill:L Costs Costs Cos.~Costs ~Cos1§_~osts Costs Costs I $-l!'1~Cos ts.¢!Kim 78-79 33.1 ---------------0.6 0.4 ---34.1 2680 1.3 79-80 42.2 ---------------0.6 0.4 ---43.2 3025 1.4 80-81 48.2 ---------------0.6 0.4 ---49.2 3688 1.3 81-82 52.8 ---------------0.6 0.4 ---53.8 4352 1.2 82-83 61.1 57.4 11.4 9.8 ------17.1 3.6 74.5 160.5 5015 3.2 83-84 62.0 86.1 17.1 18.6 ------11 .1 3.6 103.2 204.5 5679 3.6 84-85 66.7 114.8 22.8 29.9 ------17.1 3.6 131.9 254.9 6342 4.0 85-86 66.7 144.8 28.7 44.8 10.9 0.4 17.I 3.6 142.8 317 .0 6849 4.6 !l6-81 67.2 144.8 28.7 58.7 10.9 0.4 35.9 5.6 191.6 352.2 7357 4.8 87-88 66.4 194.7 33.5 73.4 10.9 0.4 35.9 5.6 241.5 420.8 7864 5.3 08-89 59.0 194.7 38.5 01.2 10.9 0.4 35.9 5.6 241.5 426.2 0372 5.1 89-90 54.5 244.6 48.3 08.6 10.9 0.4 52.4 0.8 307.9 508.5 8879 5.7 90-91 50.2 244.6 4tJ.3 98.5 10.9 0.4 52.4 0.8 30!.9 514.1 9589 5.4 <.D 91-92 47.1 302.6 59.7 109.9 10.9 0.4 52.4 8.8 365.9 591.8 10.298 5.7 .j::>92-93 42.4 302.6 59.7 120.1 10.9 0.4 52.4 8.8 365.9 597.3 ll.008 5.4 93-94 38.9 352.5 69.5 132.6 10.9 0.4 52.4 B.8 415.8 666.0 11.717 5.7 94-95 39.4 352.5 69.5 111.7 163.1 1.1 52.4 B.8 568.0 "798.5 12,427 6.4 95-96 34.5 352.5 69.5 124.2 163.I 1.1 52.4 8.8 568.0 806.1 13.477 6.0 96-97 28.3 402.4 79.3 143.5 163.1 1.1 68.9 12.0 634.4 898.6 14,526 6.2 97-98 25.4 452.3 89.1 161.2 163.1 1.1 68.9 12.0 684.3 973 ..1 15,576 6.2 98-99 27.4 452.3 89.1 143.9 213.8 1.7 68.9 12.0 684.3 1009.1 16.625 6.1 99-2000 22.6 452.3 89.1 158.5 213.8 1.7 68.9 12.0 684.3 1018.9 17,675 5.0 00-01 12.2 452.3 89.1 175.1 213.0 1.7 6il.9 12.0 604.3 1025.1 18,584 '5.5 01-02 11.0 502.5 90.9 192.5 213.8 1.7 68.9 12.0 785.2 1101.3 19,493 5.6 02·03 4.8 552.1 108.7 210.1 213.8 1.7 68.9 12.0 034.8 1172.1 20.402 5.7 03-04 4.0 552.1 108.7 220.4 213.0 1.7 68.9 12.0 034.0 1190.4 21.311 5.6 0,1-05 3.6 602.0 llB.5 247.5 213.8 1.7 85.4 15.2 901.2 1287.7 22,220 5.8. 05-06 3.6 651.9 128.3 266.9 213.8 1.7 85.4 15.2 951.1 1366.8 23.129 5.9 06-07 3.6 651.9 128.3 286.9 213.8 1.7 85.4 15.2 951.1 1386.0 24,030 5.B 07-00 3.6 701.8 138.1 307.6 213.8 1.7 85.4 15.2 1001'.0 1467.2 24,947 5.9 08-09 3.6 751.7 147.9 323.8 213.B 1.7 85.4 15.2 1050.9 154ll.1 25.856 6.0 09-10 3.6 751.7 147.9 350.6 213.8 1.7 85.4 15.2 1050.9 1569.9 26.765 5.9 10-11 3.6 (lO1.6 157.7 372.9 213.0 1.7 101.9 18.4 1117.3 1671.6 27,674 6.0 TABLE 4.18.Anchorage-Cook Inlet Area,High Load Growth Scenario,Case 3,5%Inflation-----_.-I New Ilydroelectrlc Transmission Total Cost New Coa I Fired Q!P.acl ty Costs Systems Total Total Total System of Existing Trlvestment--of1&lf Coa1-lnveSfmentoH&TC I nves tmen t OT.f&R Investment System Consumptlon.Average Power Year Capacity Costs Costs Costs Costs Costs Costs Costs _Costs _Costs.$MMKWIf Costs.¢/KWIl 78-79 29.7 ---------------0.7 0.4 ---30.8 2680 1.1 79-80 39.1 ------------~--0.7 0.4 ---40.2 3025 1.3 80-81 45.7 ------------'---0.7 0.4 ---46.8 3688 1.3 31-82 47.9 ---------------0.7 0.5 ---49.I 4352 l.l 82-83 59.5 69.8 13.8 9.9 ------21.0 4.4 90.8 178.4 5015 3.6 83-84 63.6 106.4 21.8 18.6 ------21.0 4.6 127.4 236.0 5679 4.2 84-85 68.7 144.9 30.5 29.9 ------21.0 4.9 165.9 299.9 6342 4.7 85-86 68.9 187.3 38.9 44.8 14.8 0.6 21.0 5.1 223.I 381.4 6849 5.6 86-87 69.8 187.3 40.8 61.5 14.11 0.6 47.7 11.1 249.8 430.6 4357 5.8 87-38 67.1 264.8 51l.0 80.5 14.8 0.6 47.7 8.6 327.3 542.1 7864 6.9 88-89 60.6 264.8 60.9 93.4 14.8 0.6 47.7 9.0 327.3 551.11 &372 6.6 89-90 56.4 350.2 80.8 107.4 14.8 0.7 74.8 14.7 439.8 699.8 8879 7.9 90-91 52.5 350.2 84.8 125.4 14.8 0.7 74.8 15.4 439.11 718.6 9589 7.5 lD 91-92 49.8 459.8 110.5 145.9 14.11 0.7 74.8 16.2 549.4 872.5 10.298 8.5 U1 92-93 47.4 459.8 115.9 .168.5 14.11 0.8 74.8 17.0 549.2 1199.0 11.0011 11.2 93-9·1 46.5 563.6 1<12.2 193.9 14.8 0.8 74.8 17.9 653.2 1054.5 11.717 9.0 94-95 411.5 563.6 149.3 171.3 335.2 2.2 74.8 111.8 973.6 1364.2 12,427 10.9 95-96 43.8 563.6 156.8 201.2 335.2 2.3 74.8 19.7 973.6 1397.4 13.477 10.4 96-97 36.3 683.11 138.2 243.I 335.2 2.4 114.11 27.7 1133.11 1595.2 14,526 10.9 97-98 37.7 810.0 222.4 2ll5.6 335.2 2.5 114.8 29.I 1260.0 1837.3 15,576 11.8 98-99 37.5 010.0 233.5 268.9 464.9 4.2 114.8 30.5 1389.7 1964.3 16.625 11.8 99-2000 31.7 III O.0 245.2 308.5 464.9 4.4 114.8 32.0 13139.7 2011.5 17,675 11.4 00-01 16.7 810.0 257.5 359.3 464 .9 4.6 114.8 33.6 1389.7 2061.4 18,584 11.1 01-02 15.3 963.4 300.5 •413.1 464.9 .4.8 114.11 35.3 1543.1 2312.1 19,493 11.9 02-03 5.4 1124.5 347.1 476.1 464.9 5.1 114.8 37.I 1704.2 2575.0 20.402 12.6 03-04 5.5 1124.5 364.4 541.9 464.9 5.3 114.8 38.9 1704.2 2660.2 21.311 12.5 04-05 3.6 1302.1 417.5 616.1 464.9 5.6 168.5 51.9 1935.5 3030.2 22.220 13.6 05-06 3.7 14811.6 474.9 696.2 464.9 5.9 1611.5 54.5 ,2122.0 3357.2 23.129 14.5 06-07 3.9 1488.6 498.7 784.9 464.9 6 "168.5 57.2 2122.0 3472.9 24,038 14.4.f. 07-08 4.0 1694.2 563.9 •81l2.Il 464.9 6.5 168.5 60.1 2327.6 3844.9 24,947 15.4 OB-09 4.1 1910.1 634.5 990.5 464.9 6.8 16l.1.5 63.1 2543.5 4238.4 25,856 16.4 09-10 4.2 1910.1 666.3 11011.7 464.9 7.1 168.5 66.2 2543.5 4396.0 26,765 16.4 10-11 4.4 2140.I 746.3 1237.11 464.9 7.e 222.0 Ill.5 21135.0 4912.5 27.674 17.1 TABLE 4.19.Fairbanks-Tanana Valley Area,Low Growth Scenario.Case 1,0%Inflation New liydroe lectrl c Transmission Total Cost New Coal Fired Cal?aCi~Costs Systems Total Total Total System of Exlstin9 Investmf:iil-OFiln -Coa-riivesfiiieotOM&R lnvestment OM&n Investment System Consumption,Average Power ~CapacHy Costs Colli Costs ~~L __Costs ~£-Costs Costs Costs,,MMKUtt Costs,j/KWf/ 78-79 33.8 ---------0.3 0.2 ---34.3 778 4.4 79-80 36.6 ---------0.3 0.2 ---37.1 823 4.5 80-81 39.4 ---------0.3 0.2 ---39.9 855 4.7 81-82 41.6 ---------0.3 0.2 ---42.1 887 4.7 82-83 35.6 ------6.9 0.3 0.2 ---43.1 919 4.7 83-84 33.1 ------7.2 0.3 0.2 ---40.8 951 4.3 84-85 30.3 ------7.3 0.3 0.2 ---38.2 983 3.9 85-86 28.2 ------7.5 0.3 0.2 ---36.6 1015 3.6 86-87 26.1 ------7.7 0.3 0.2 ---34.3 1047 3.3 87-88 24.0 ------7.8 0.3 0.2 ---32.4 1079 3.0 88-89 22.9 2.6 0.5 7.7 0.3 0.2 2.9 34.2 1111 3.1 89-90 23.1 21.5 4.3 10.0 3.5 1.0 25.0 63.4 1144 5.6 90-91 20.9 27.6 5.5 10.0 3.5 1.0 31.4 61l.5 1176 5.8 ~91-92 21.1 27.6 5.5 12.4 3.5 1.0 31.7 71.1 1208 5.9 0"1 92-93 18.2 27.6 5.5 13.3 3.5 1.0 31.1 69.2 1240 5.6 93-94 18.4 27.6 5.5 14.1 3.5 1.0 31.1 70.1 1272 5.!; 94-95 18.5 46.5 9.3 14.7 3.5 1.0 50.0 93.5 1305 7.1 95-96 16.9 51.2 10.2 15.4 3.5 1.0 54.7 98.2 1337 7.3 96-97 14.3 51.2 10.2 16.4 3.5 1.0 54.7 97.1 1369 7.1 97-93 3.8 70.1 14.0 1ll.9 3.5 1.0 73.6 111.2 1401 7.9. 98-99 3.8 89.0 17.8 19.6 3.5 1.0 92.5 134.7 1433 9.,1 99-2000 3.8 89.0 17.8 20.6 3.5 1.0 92.5 135.7 1466 9.2 00-01 3.8 89.0 17.8 20.9 3.5 1.0 92.5 136.0 1470 9.3 01-02 3.8 89.0 17 .6 21.5 3.5 1.0 92.5 136.6 1474 9.3 02-03 1.5 89.0 17.8 21.9 3.5 1.0 92.5 134.7 1478 9.1 03-04 1.5 89.0 17.6 22.4 3.5 1.0 92.5 135.2 1482 9.1 04-05 1.5 89.0 17.8 22.9 3.5 1.0 92.5 135.7 1437 9.1 05-06 ---fi9.0 17.8 23.5 3.5 1.0 92.5 134.8 1491 9.0 06-07 ---89.0 17.8 24.1 3.5 1.0 92.5 135.4 1495 9.0 07-01l ---89.0 17.8 24,6 3.5 1.0 92.5 135,9 1499 9.1 08-09 ---89.0 lUI 24.7 3.5 1.0 92.5 136.0 1503 9.0. 09-10 _.-89.0 17.8 25.7 3.5 1.0 92.5 137.0 1507 9.1 10-11 ._-89.0 17.8 26.2 3.5 1.0 92.5 137.5 1511 9.1 TABLE 4.20.Fairbanks-Tanana Valley Area,Low Growth Scenario,Case 1,5%Inflation Total Cost New Ilydroelectric Transmission New Coal fired ca~~Costs Systems Total Total Total System of Existing Tnves tmen t Of1&-R-Coa Investment-ilM&R lnvestment OM&R Investnlent System Cons ump ti on.Average Power ~Ca\laci ty Costs Costs Costs Costs ~Costs_Costs ~_ts__Costs,$---L~CosthJjK~lH _ 78-79 30.5 ---------0.2 0.2 ---30.9 778 4.0 79-80 33.9 ---------0.2 O.~---34.2 823 4.2 80-1.ll 37.4 ---------0.2 0.2 ---37.8 £l55 4.4 81-82 40.7 ---------0.2 0.2 ---41.0 887 4.6 82-83 36.6 ------6.9 0.2 0.2 ---43.9 919 4.8 83-(14 35.6 ------7.2 0.2 0.2 ---43.2 951 4.5 84-85 33.5 ------7.3 0.2 0.2 ---41.3 983 4.2 85-86 32.3 ------7.5 0.2 0.2 ---40.3 1015 4.0 86-87 30.4 ------8.1 0.2 0.3 ---38.9 1047 3.7 87-88 28.7 ------8.6 0.2 0.3 ---37.8 1079 3.5 8il-89 27.9 4.2 0.7 8.9 0.2 0.3 4.4 42.4 1111 3.8 89-90 29.3 36.6 7.0 12.1 4.5 1.7 41.1 91.3 1144 7.9 90-91 28.4 48.0 7.4 12.7 4.5 1.8 52.5 102.8 1176 8.7 91-92 30.1 48.0 7.4 16.5 4.5 1.9 52.5 108.2 1208 8.9 ~ "--l 92-93 26.7 48.0 7.4 18.7 4.5 2.0 52.5 107.6 1240 8.6 93-94 28.1 48.0 7.8 20.6 4.5 2.1 52.5 110.8 1272 8.7 'H -95 29.5 89.4 17.0 22.6 .4.5 2.2 93.9 16t'.1 1305 12.7 95-96 28.8 100.2 17.2 24.9 4.5 2.3 104.7 177.6 1337 13.3 96-97 27.7 100.2 10.0 27.9 4.5 2.4 104.7 180.4 1369 13.2 97-93 6.1 148.1 28.5 33.5 4.5 2.5 152.6 222.9 1401 15.9 98-99 6.4 198.4 39.6 36.7 4.5 2.6 202.9 287.9 1433 20.1 99-2000 6.6 19u.4 41.6 40.1 4.5 2.7 202.9 294.0 1466 20.0 00-01 7.0 19!:l.4 43.6 43.1 4.5 2.8 202.9 299.4 1470 20.4 01-02 7.3 193.4 46.0 46.2 4.5 2.9 202.9 305.2 1474 20.7 02-03 2.7 198.4 48.4 49.6 4.5 3.0 202.9 305.5 1478 20.7 03-04 2.8 E18A 50.8 53.2 4.5 3.2 202.9 312.6 1482 21.1 04-05 2.9 198.4 53.6 57.1 4.5 3.3 202.9 319.6 1487 21.5 05-06 ---198.4 56.0 61.3 4.5 3.4 202.9 323.6 1491 21.7 06-07 ---193.4 58.8 65.8 4.5 3.5 202.9 330.9 1495 22 .1 07-08 ---1911.4 60.0 70.6 4.5 3.7 202.9 337.0 1499 22.5 01l-09 ---1911.4 56.2 75.8 4.5 3.9 202.9 347.5 1503 23.1 09-10 ---190.4 63.0 Ill.3 4.5 4.2 202.9 356.4 1507 23.6 10-11 ---1911.4 71.6 1l7.1 4.5 4.3 202.9 365.9 1511 24.2 TABLE 4.21.Fairbanks-Tanana Valley Area,Low Growth Scenario,Case 2,0%Inflation New f1ydroelectric Transmission Total Cost New Coal Fire~ac1!Y Costs Systems Total Total Total System of Existing Tilvestniiiiit----oM&R .-Coa-l-lnves tffiiifir-OM&r 'I nves tmen t O"MIR Investment System Consumption,Average Power ~Callaci ty ....S!!~fQsts Costs _~~Cosh Costs Costs Costs Costs,S MHK\oIU costs,UKWU 78-79 33.8 ---------0.3 0.2 ---34.3 778 4.4 79-80 36.6 ---------0:3 0.2 ---37.1 823 4.5 80-81 39.4 ---------0.3 0.2 ---39.9 855 4.7 81-82 41.6 ---------0.3 0.2 ---42.1 887 4.7 82-83 35.6 ------6.9 0.3 0.2 ---43.1 919 4.7 83-84 33.1 ------7.2 0.3 0.2 ---40.8 951 4.3 84-85 30.3 ------7.3 0.3 0.2 ---38.2 983 3.9 85-86 28.2 ------7.5 0.3 0.2 ---36.6 1015 3.6 86-87 26.1 ------7.7 0.3 0.2 ---34.3 1047 3.3 87-88 24.0 ------7.8 0.3 0.2 ---32.4 1079 3.0 88-89 22.9 2.6 0.5 7.7 0.3 0.2 2.9 34.2 1111 3.1 89-90 23.1 21.5 4.3 10.0 3_5 1.0 25.0 63.4 1144 5.6 90-91 20.9 27.6 5.5 10.0 3.5 1.0 31.4 60.5 1176 5.8 <-0 91-92 21.1 27.6 5.5 12.4 3.5 1.0 31.7 71.1 1208 5.9 (Xl 92-93 18.2 27.6 5.5 13.3 3.5 1.0 31.1 69.2 1240 5.6 93-94 18.4 27.6 5.5 14.1 3.5 1.0 31.1 70.1 1272 5.5 94-95 l!J.5 27.6 5.5 14.7 1!1.8 2.0 46.4 87.2 1305 6.7 95-96 16.9 32.3 6.4 15.4 18.8 2.0 51.1 91.8 1337 6.9 96-97 14.3 51.2 10.2 16.4 16.0 2.0 70.0 113.1 .1369 3.3 97-98 3.7 70.1 14.0 18.9 18.8 2.0 88.9 127.6 1401 9.1 98-99 3.7 70.I 14.0 19.6 18.8 2.0 8(1.9 128.4 1433 8.9 99-2000 3.7 70.1 14.0 20.6 10.0 2.0 08.9 129.3 1466 0.8 00-01 3.0 70.1 14.0 20.9 16.8 2.0 (j6.9 129.6 1470 8.8 01-02 3.0 70.1 14.0 21.5 10.8 2.0 80.9 130.2 1474 8.8 02-03 1.5 70.I 14.0 21.8 18.0 2.0 Ofl.9 120.3 1470 0.7 03-04 1.5 70.1 14.0 22.4 ](1.8 2.0 01l.9 128.8 1482 8.7 04-05 1.5 70.1 14.0 22.9 1B.1l 2.0 BO.9 129.3 1407 0.7 05-06 ---70.1 14.0 23.5 18.8 2.0 UIl.9 120.4 1491 8.6 06-07 ---1l9.0 17.8 24.0 10.8 2.0 107.0 151.7 lq95 10.1 07-08 ---89.0 17.8 24.5 18.0 2.0 107.1l 152.2 1499 10.1 00-09 ---89.0 17.0 25.1 10.0 ;~.0 107.8 152.8 1503 10.1 09-10 ---09.0 17.0 25.7 lll.8 2.0 107.11 153.3 1507 10.2 10-11 ---09.0 17.0 26.2 10.0 2.0 107.0 153.')1511 10.2 TAI3LE 4.22.Fairbanks-Tanana Valley Area,Low Growth Scenario,Case 2,5%Inflation New Hydroe1ectl'1c Tran~mfssfon Tota 1 Cos t New Co'!.UJ-red Capaci tY._Costs ~sten1s Total Total Total System of Existlng Investment OM&R Coal loves tment'(}Ff&R IIvestment -OMW Investment System Consumptfon,Average Power ~_r_Cilpacf ty Costs Costs f~Costs -Costs Costs Costs Costs Costs,$MMKWIl Costs,UKWIl 78-79 30.57 ------ --- 0.2 0.2 ---30.9 778 4.0 79-80 33.9 ---------0.2 0.2 ---34.2 823 4.2 80-81 37.4 ---------0.2 0.2 ---37.8 855 4.4 81-82 40.7 ---------0.2 0.2 ---41.0 887 4.6 82-83 36.6 ------6.9 0.2 0.2 ---43.9 919 4.8 83-8·1 35.6 ------7.2 0.2 0.2 ---43.2 951 4.5 84-85 33.5 ------7.3 0.2 0.2 ---41.3 •983 4.2 8S-86 32.3 ------7.5 0.2 0.2 ---40.3 1015 4.0 86-87 30.4 ----_.8.1 0.2 0.3 ---38.9 1047 3.7 87-88 28.7 ------8.6 0.2 0.3 -_.37.8 1079 3.5 88-89 27.9 4.2 0.7 B.9 0.2 0.3 4.4 42.4 1111 3.8 89-90 29.3 36.6 7.0 12.I 4.5 1.7 41.1 91.3 1144 7.9 90-91 28.4 48.0 7.4 12.7 4.5 1.8 52.5 .102.8 1176 8.7 lD 91-92 30.1 48.0 7.4 16.5 4.5 1.9 52.5 108.2 120B 8.9 lD . 92-93 26.7 48.0 7.4 18.7 4.5 2.0 52.5 107.0 1240 8.6 93-94 28.I 48.0 7.8 20.6 4.5 2.1 52.5 llO.8 1272 8.7 94-95 29.5 48.0 11.9 22.6 36.8 4.0 8Ul 153.0 1305 11.7 95-96 28.8 58.8 14.6 ..24.9 36.8 4.2 95.6 16B.l 1337 12.6 96-97 27.7 105.4 24.4 27.9 36.8 4.4 142.2 226.6 1369 16.5 97-98 6.1 153.3 35.2 33.5 36.8 4.6 190.1 269.6 1401 19.2 98-99 6.4 l!i3.3 36.9 36.7 36.8 4.8 190.1 275.0 1433 19.2. 99-2000 6.6 153.3 38.7 40.I 36.8 5.1 190.1 2flO.6 1466 19.1 00-01 7.0 153.3 40.7-43.0 36.8 5.3 190.1 286.2 1470 19.4 01-02 7.3 153.3 42.7 46.1 36.6 5.6 190.1 291.9 1474 19.8 02·03 2.7 153.3 44.9 49.6 36.8 5.9 190.I 293.2 1478 19.8 03-0·'2.6 153.3 47.1 53.2 36.6 6.2 190.1 299.4 1482 20.2 04-05 2.9 153.3 49.5 57.I 36.8 6.5 190.1 306.2 1487 20.6 05-06 ---153.3 51.9 61.3 36.8 6.8 190.1 310.1 1491 20.8 06-07 ---227.6 69.2 65.7 36.8 7.2 264.4 406.6 1495 27.2 07-0B ---72.6 70.5 36.B 7.5 264.4 415.1 1499 27.7 G8·09 ---227.6 76.3 75.7 36.11 7.9 26t..4 424.4 1503 2B.2 09-10 ---227.6 eo.1 111.2 36.8 8.3 264.4 43-1.1 1507 28.8 10 ..11 ---227.6 84.1 87.1 36.fl 8.7 264.4 443.3 1511 29.4 TABLE 4.23.Fairbanks-Tanana Valley Area,Lo~Growth Scenario,Case 3,0%Inflation Hew I~droelectrlc Transmission Total Cost Hel!...fQ.!l..nr~<!CapacID__Custs Syst"ms Total Total Total System of Existing liiVestment OM&R Coal Investment~R TnwiStment -----omr Investment System Consumption.Average Power ..l!!.!L -l~£!lL _£Qi!L....Costs Costs Costs_Cos ts .Cos ts_Costs Costs Costs,$Ml>lKlJH Costs,¢/KWH 78-79 33.6 ---------------0.3 0.2 ---34.3 776 4.4 79-80 36.6 ---------------0.3 0.2 ---37.1 823 4.5 60-61 39.4 ---------------0.3 0.2 ---39.9 65~4.7 81-82 41.6 ---------------0.3 0.2 ---42.1 887 4.7 62-63 35.6 ------6.9 ------0.3 0.2 ---43.1 919 4.7 83-84 33.1 ------7.2 ------0.3 0.2 ---40.8 951 4.3 84-85 30.3 ------7.3 ------0.3 0.2 ---38.2 983 3.9 85-86 28.2 ------7.5 ------0.3 0.2 ---36.6 1015 3.6 86-87 26.1 ------7.7 --_.---0.3 0.2 ---34.3 1047 3.3 87-88 24.0 ------7.8 ------0.3 0.2 ---32.4 1079 3.0 88-89 22.9 2.6 0.5 7.7 ------0.3 0.2 2.9 34.2 1111 3.1 89··90 23.1 21.5 4.3 10.0 ------3.5 1.0 25.0 63.4 1144 5.6 90-91 20.9 27.6 5.5 10.0 ------3.5 1.0 31.4 68.5 1176 5.8 -'91-92 21.1 27.6 5.5 12.4 ------18.8 2.0 46.4 87.4 1208 7.2aa92-93 18.2 27.6 5.5 13.3 ------18.8 2.0 46.4 85.5 1240 6.9 93-94 18.4 27.6 5.5 14.1 --- --- 18.8 2.0 46.4 ;86.4 1272 6.8 94-95 18.5 27.6 5.5 6.9 36.2 0.1 18.8 2.0 82.6 115.6 ·1305 11.8 95-96 16.9 32.3 6.4 6.5 36.2 0.1 18.8 2.0 82.6 119.2 1337 8.9 96-97 14.3 32.3 6.4 7.3 36.2 0:1 18.8 2.0 82.6 117.5 1369 8.6 97-98 3.8 32.3 6.4 9.6 36.2 0.1 18.8 2.0 82.6 109.2 1401 7.8 98-99 3.8 32.3 6.4 10.\36.2 0.1 18.8 2.0 82.6 109.7 1433 7.6 99-2000 3.8 32.3 6.4 3.1 40.3 0.2 llUl 2.0 99.4 114.9 1466 7.8 00-01 3.8 32.3 6.4 2.7 48.3 0.2 18.8 2.0 99.4 114.5 1470 7.0 01-02 3.8 32.3 6.4 2.7 48.3 0.2 18.8 2.0 99.4 114.5 1474 7.7 02-03 1.5 32.3 6.4 2.4 48.3 0.2 18.8 2.0 99.4 111.9 1478 7.6 03-04 1.5 32.3 6.4 2.5 48.3 0.2 18.8 2.0 99.4 112.0 1402 7.6 0·1-05 1.5 32.6.4 2.6 48.3 0.2 18.8 2.0 99.4 112.1 1487 7.5 05-06 ---32.3 6.4 2.7 48.3 0.2 18.8 2.0 99.4 110.7 1491 7.4 06-07 ---32.6.4 2.8 48.3 0.2 18.8 2.0 99.4 110.8 1495 7.4 07-00 ---32.6.4 2.9 48.3 0.2 18.3 2.0 99.4 110.9 1499 7.4 08-09 ---32.6.4 3.1 48.3 0.2 13.3 2.0 99.4 111.1 1503 7.4 09-10 ---32.3 6.4 3.2 4G.3 0.2 W.G 2.B 99.4 111.2 1507 7.4 10-l!---32.3 6.4 3.4 43.3 0.2 10.8 2.0 99.4 111.4 1511 7.4 TABLE 4.24.Fairbanks-Tanana Valley Area,Low Growth Scenario,Case 3,5%Inflation Total Cost New l~droe1ectrlc Transmission ~Coa1_f.ired Capaci~_Costs Systems Total Tobl Total System of Existing Investment OH&R Coal -Inves tment OH&R Investment OH&R Investment System Consumption,Averago:!Power ~Capad ty Costs_Costs Costs --Costs Costs Cost_s_Costs Costs Costs,$MMKWfI Costs,t/KWH 78-79 30.5 ---------------0.2 0.2 ---30.9 778 4.0 79-80 33.9 ---------------0.2 0.2 ---34.2 823 4.2 80-81 37.4 ---------------0.2 0.2 ---3Ut 855 4.4 81-82 40.7 ---------------0.2 0.2 ---41.0 887 4.6 82-83 36.6 ------6.9 ------0.2 0.2 ---43.9 919 4.8 83-84 35.6 ------7.2 ------0.2 0.2 ---43.2 951 4.5 84-85 33.5 ------7.3 ------0.2 0.2 ---41.3 983 4.2 85-86 32.3 ------7.5 ------0.2 0.2 ---40.3 1015 4.0 86-87 30.4 ------8.1 ------0.2 0.3 ---38.9 1047 3.7 87-88 28.7 ------8.6 ------0.2 0.3 ---37.8 1079 3.5 fJ8-fJ9 27.9 4.2 0.7 8.9 ------0.2 0.3 4.4 42.4 1111 3.6 8~-90 29.3 36.6 7.0 12.I ------4.5 1.7 41.1 91.3 1144 7.9 90-91 28.4 48.0 7.4 12.7 ------4.5 1.8 52.5 102.8 1176 6.7 91-92 30.1 46.0 10.3 16.4 ------32.4 3.5 80.4 140.7 1208 11.60 --'92-93 26.7 48.0 10.8 18.7 ------32.4 3.6 80.4 140.3 1240 11.3 93-94 28.1 48.0 11.4 20.6 ------:12.4 3.8 80.4 144.3 1272 11.3 94-95 29.5 48.0 11.9 10.7 76.2 0.3 32.4 4.0 156.6 213.1 1305 16.3 95-96 28.8 58.8 14.6 10.5 76.2 0.3 32.4 4.2 167.4 225.8 1337 16.9 96-97 27.7 58.8 15.3 12.4 76.2 0.3 32.4 4.4 167.4 227.5 1369 16.6 97-93 6.1 58.8 16.1 16.9 76.2 0.4 32.4 4.6 167.4 211.5 1401 15.1 93-99 6.4 58.6 16.9 10.9 76.2 0.4 32.4 4.8 167.4 214.8 1433 15.0 99-2000 6.6 50.6 17.7 5.9 108.6 0.1l 32.4 5.1 199.6 236.0 1466 16.1 00-01 7.0 58.8 18.6 5.4 108.6 0.8 32.4 5.3 199.8 236.9 1470 16.1 01-02 7.3 58.8 19.6 5.8 108.6 0.9 32.4 5.6 199.8 239.0 1474 16.2 02-03 2.7 58.8 20.5 5.5 108.6 0.9 32.4 5.9 .199.8 235.3 1478 15.9 03-0Q 2.6 51Ul 21.6 5.9 108.6 1.0 32.11 6.2 199.8 237.3 1482 16.0 04-05 2.9 5lUl 22.6 6.5 108.6 1.0 32.4 6.5 199.8 239.3 1467 16.1 05-06 ---5£1.6 23.7 7.I 108.6 1.1 32.4 6.8 199.6 238.5 1491 16.0 06-07 ---58.8 24.9 7.8 108.6 1.1 32.4 7.2 199.6 240.8 1495 16.1 07-06 .--50.3 26.2 •8.5 108.6 1.2 32.4 7.5 199.8 243.2 1499 16.2 On-09 ---!i8.11 27.5 •9.3 108.6 1.2 32.4 7.9 199.6 245.7 1503 16.3 09-10 511.28.9 10.2 108.6 1.3 32.4 8.3 199.8 248.5 1507 16.5 10-11 ,---58.11 30.3 11.1 108.6 1.4 32.4 8.7 199.6 251.3 1511 16.6 T1\I3LE 4.25.Fairbanks-Tanana Valley Area,Medium Growth Scenario.Case 1.0%Inflation------- New I~droelectrlc Transmission Total Cost ~\1 Coal I]red Capac&_Costs Systems Total Total Total System of Existing Investment OM&R Coal Investment OM&it Investment OM&R Investment System Consumption.Average Power ~Cdpacit.L....Costs Cost~Costs Costs fasts Costs Costs Costs Costs-t...1 Mt-IKWIl Cos ts.¢/K.!!!L 78-79 33.8 ---------0.3 0.2 ---34.2 804 4.3 79-80 36.6 ---------0.3 0.2 ---37.0 862 4.3 80-81 39.4 ---------0.3 0.2 ---39.8 916 4.3 81-82 41.6 ---------0.3 0.2 ---42.1 970 4.3 82-83 35.6 ------6.9 0.3 0.2 ---43.0 1024 4.2 83-84 33.1 ------7.2 0.3 0.2 ---40.8 1078 3.8 84-85 30.3 ------7.3 0.3 0.2 ---38.1 1132 3.4 85-86 28.2 16.9 3.6 9.4 3.5 1.0 22.4 64.9 1193 5.4 86-87 26.1 18.9 3.6 10.9 3.5 1.0 22.4 64.2 1254 5.1 87-88 24.0 18.9 3.8 12.4 3.5 1.0 22.4 63.7 1315'4.8 88-89 22.9 21.5 4.3 13.3 3.5 1.0 25.0 66.6 1376 4.8 89-90 23.1 40.4 8.1 14.5 3.5 1.0 43.9 90.6 1437 6.3 90-91 20.9 46.5 9.3 15.5 3.5 1.0 50.0 96.6 1505 6.4 -'91-92 21.1 46.5 9.3 16.6 3.5 1.0 50.0 98.2 1573 6.2 0 92~93 18.2 65.4 13.1 1ll.2 3.5 1.0 66.9 119.5 1641 7.3N 93-94 11.1.4 65.4 13.1 19.5 3.5 1.0 66.9 120.9 1709 7.1 9~-95 18.5 65.4 13.1 20.7 3.5 1.0 68.9 122.2 1777 6.9 95-96 16.9 70.1 14.0 22.1 3.5 1.0 73.6 127.6 1859 6.9 96-97 14.3 89.0 17.0 24.0 5.3 1.0 94.3 152.4 1941 7.8 97-90 3.7 107.9 21.6 27.3 5.3 1.8 113.2 167.6 2023 0.3 9<J-99 3.7 126.8 25.4 28.9 5.3 1.0 132.1 192.0 2105 .9.1 99-2000 3.7 126.0 25.4 30.7 5.3 1.0 132.1 193.0 2107 8.9 00-01 3.8 126.0 25.4 31.0 5.3 1.0 132.1 194.9 2229 0.7 01-02 3.0 126.0 25.4 33.1 5.3 1.8 132.1 196.2 2270 0.6 02-03 1.5 126.8 25.4 34.2 5.3 1.0 132.1 195.0 2312 0.4 03-04 1.5 155.5 31.1 35.6 5.3 1.0 160.0 230.8 2353 9.0 04-05 --155.5 31.1 37.0 5.3 1.0 160.0 232.2 2395 9.7 05-06 ---155.5 31.1 30.4 5.3 1.0 160.0 232.1 2437 9.5 06-07 ---155.5 31.1 39.9 5.3 1.0 160.8 233.5 2478 9.4 07-00 ---155.5 31.1 41.4 5.3 1.0 160.0 235.1 2520 9.3 08-09 ---ISS.31.1 42.8 5.3 1.0 160.8 236.5 2561 9.2 09-10 ---155.5 31.1 44.4 5.3 1.0 160.8 238.1 2603 9.1 10·11 ---155.5 31.1 45.9 5.3 1./1 160.0 239.6 2645 9.1 TABLE 4.26.Fairbanks-Tanana Valley Area.Medium Growth Scenario.Case 1.5%Inflation New I~droelectrlc Transml ss1on Total Cost New Coal Fired Capacity Costs Systems Total Total Tota 1 Sys tem of Existing ~estment OM&R Coa'---Investment OHM Investment O~Investment System Consumption.Average Power _.ill!:-~af.!!.L.-Costs Costs Costs ~~Costs Costs Costs Costs Costs,$MMKIJII Costs,¢/I(WIl 78-79 30.5 ---------0.2 0.2 ---30.9 804 3.8 79-80 33.9 ---------0.2 0.2 ---34.2 862 4.0 80-81 37.4 ---------0.2 0.2 ---37.8 916 4.1 81-82 40.7 ---------0.2 0.2 ---41.0 970 4.2 82-83 36.6 ------6.9 0.2 0.2 ---43.9 1024 4.3 83-84 35.6 ------7.2 0.2 0.2 ---43.2 1078 4.0 114-85 33.5 ------7.3 0.2 0.2 ---41.3 1132 3.6 85-86 32.3 26.6 5.3 9.4 4.4 1.2 31.0 79.2 1193 6.6 86·87 30.4 26.6 5.5 11.4 4.4 1.3 31.0 79.6 1254 6.3 87-88 28.7 26.6 5.8 13.6 4.4 1.4 31.0 80.5 1315 '6.1 811-89 27.9 30.8 7.0 15.4 4.4 1.5 35.2 87.0 1376 6.3 89-90 29.3 63.2 13.6 17 .6 4.4 1.5 67.6 129.7 1437 9.0 90-91 28.4 74.6 16.4 19.8 4.4 1.6 79.0 145.3 1505 9.6 --'91-92 3(1.1 74.6 16.4 22.3 4.4 1.7 79.0 149.5 1573 9.5 0 . 194.4 1641 11.8w92-93 26.7 112.1 23.8 25.5 4.4 1.8 116.5 93-94 28.1 112.I 25.0 28.5 4.4 1.9 116.5 200.1 1709 11.7 94-95 29.5 112.1 26.2 31.8 4.4 2.0 1.16.5 20,6.1 1777 11.6 95-96 28.8 122.9 29.7 35.8 4.4 2.2 127.3 223.8 1859 12.0 96-97 27.7 169.5 40.1 40.7 8.5 2.3 178.0 28B.8 1941 14 .9 97-98 6.1 217.4 51.7 48.5 8.5 2.4 225.9 334.6 2023 16.~ 98-99 6.4 267.7 64.1 54.0 8.5 2.6 276.2 403.4 2105 19.2 99-2000 6.6 267.7 67.3 59.9 8.5 2.7 276.2 412.7 2187 18.9 00-01 7.0 267.7 70.7 65.3 8.5 2.8 276.2 422.0 2229 18.9 01-02 7.3 267.7 74.3 71.1 8.5 3.0 276.2 431.9 2270 19.0 02-03 2.7 267.1 17.9 77 .6 8.5 3.2 276.2 437.6 2312 18.9 03-04 2.8 365.0 77 .9 77.6 8.5 3.4 373.5 561.5 2353 23.9 04-05 2.9 36b.O 102.1 92:1 8.5 3.6 373.5 574.2 2395 24.0 05-06 --365.0 107.2 100.3 8.5 3.7 373.5 584.7 2437 24.0 06-07 ---365.0 112.6 109.1 8.5 3.8 373.5 599.0 2478 24.2 07-08 ---365.0 118.2 118.7 8.5 4.2 373.5 614.4 2520 24.4 08-09 ---365.0 124.1 129.1 8.5 4.2 373.5 630.9 2561 24.6 09-10 ---365.0 130.3 1~0.4 8 ,.4.4 373.5 64B.6 2603 24.9.0 10-11 ---365.0 136.8 152.5 8.5 4.5 373.5 667.3 2645 25.2 TABLE 4.27.Fairbanks-Tanana Valley Area,Medium Growth Scenario,Case 2,0%Inflation New Coal fired CapacHy New Ilydroelectric Transmission Total Cost Costs Systems Total Total.Total System of Existing Investment OM&R Coar--Investment OM&R Investment OM&R Investment System Consumption.Average Power .1lli-Capad ty Costs fQili.Costs Costs fQili.Costs Costs Costs Costs,$Ml'lKWIl Costs,t/KWH 78-79 33.8 ------ --- 0.3 0.2 ---34.2 804 4.3 79-80 36.6 ---------0.3 0.2 ---37.0 862 4.3 80-81 39.4 ---------0.3 0.2 ---39.8 916 4.3 81-82 41.6 ---------0.3 0.2 ---42.1 970 4.3 82-83 35.6 --- --- 6.9 0.3 0.2 ---43.0 1024 4.2 83-84 33.1 ------7.2 0.3 0.2 ---40.8 1078 3.8. 84-85 30.3 ------7.3 0.3 0.2 ---38.1 1132 3.4 85-86 28.2 18.9 •3.6 9.4 3.5 1.0 22.4 64.9 1193 5.4 86-87 26.1 18.9 3.6 10.9 3.5 1.0 22.4 64.2 1254 5.1 87-88 24.0 18.9 3.8 12.4 3.5 1.0 22.4 63.7 1315 4.8 88-!l9 22.9 21.5 4.3 13.3 3.5 1.0 25.0 66.6 1376 4.8 89-90 23.1 21.5 4.3 14.5 18.8 2.0 40.3 84.2 1437 5.6 90-9\20.9 27.6 5.5 19.1 18.8 2.0 46.4 89.0 1505 5.9 .....91-92 21.1 27.6 5.5 15.2 18.8 2.0 46.4 90.2 1573 5.7 0 92-93 18.2 27.6 5.5 16.0 18 ..8 2.0 26.4 86.2 1641 5.4-I=::- 93-94 13.4 27.6 5.5 16.9 16.6 2.0 46.4 69.2 1709 5.2 94-95 18.5 46.5 9.2 19.8 18.8 2.0 65.3 .114.9 1777 6.5 95-96 16.9 70.1 13.6 22.1 18.8 2.0 88.9 143.7 1859 7.7 96-97 \4.3 70.1 13.6 24.0 18.8 2.0 88.9 143.2 1941 7.4 97-9B 3.76 89.0 17.5 27.3 113.8 2.0 107.8 158.5 2023 7.8 98-99 3.7 107.9 21.2 28.9 16.8 2.0 126.7 182.6 2105 8.7 99-2000 3.7 107.9 21.2 30.7 16.8 2.0 126.7 184.5 2187 8.4 00-01 3.8 107.9 21.2 31.8 18.8 .2.0 126.7 165.5 2229 8.3 01-02 3.6 107.9 21.2 33.1 18.8 2.0 126.7 186.8 2270 8.2 02-03 1.5 126.8 24.9 34.2 18.8 2.0 145.6 206.2 2312 9.0 03-04 1.5 126.8 24.9 35.6 la.8 2.0 145.6 209.6 2353 8.9 04-05 1.5 126.8 24.9 J7.0 18.8 2.0 145.6 211.0 2395 a.a 05-06 ---\26.8 24.9 38.44 18.8 2.0 145.6 210.9 2437 a.6 06-07 ---126.8 24.9 39.8 18.8 2.0 145.6 212.3 2478 a.6 07·08 ---126.8 24.9 41.3 18.8 2.0 145.6 213.8 2520 8.5 08·09 ---126.8 24.9 42.8 18.8 2.0 145.6 215.3 2561 8.4 09-10 ---126.8 24.9 44.3 18.8 2.0 145.6 216.9 2603 8.3 10-11 ---126.8 24.9 45.9 18.8 2.0 145.6 2111.4 2645 8.2 TABLE 4.28.Fairbanks-Tanana Valley Area,Medium Growth Scenario,Case 2,5%Inflation---._-- NtoW Uydroe 1ectri c Transmission Total Cost New Coa,l fi.!'~d capac1~Costs Systems Total Total Iota I System of £Kisting Investment OM&R Coa I nves tmen tllH&R Investment OM1R Investment System Consumption.Average Power ~~_r_.s!P.llilL Costs ~Costs Cost~__~osts Costs Costs Costs Costs.i MHKWH Costs;UKWH 78-79 30.5 ---------0.2 0.2 ---30.9 804 3.8 79-80 33.9 ---------0.2 0.2 ---34.2 862 4.0 80-81 37.4 ---------0.2 0.2 ---37.8 916 4.1 8\-82 40.7 ---------0.2 0.2 ---41.0 970 4.2 82-83 36.6 ------6.9 0.2 0.2 ---43.9 1024 4.3 83-84 35.6 ------7.2 0.2 0.2 ---43.2 1078 4.0 84-85 33.5 ------7.3 0.2 0.2 ---41.3 1132 3.6' 85-86 32.3 26.6 5.3 9.4 4.4 1.2 31.0 79.2 1193 6.6 86-H7 30.4 26.6 5.5 11.4 4.4 1.3 31.0 79.6 1254.6.3 87-88 28.7 26.6 5.8 13.6 4.4 1.4 31.0 80.5 1315 6.1 88-89 27.9 30.8 7.0 15.4 4.4 1.5 35.2 87.0 1376 6.3 89-90 29.3 30.9 7.3 17.6 29.7 3.2 60.6 118.1 1437 8.2 90-91 28.4 42.3 9.8 lB.O 29.7 3.4 72.0 131.8 1505 8.7......91-92 30.1 42.3 10.3 20.2 29.7 3.5 72.0 136.1 1573 8.60 01 92-93 26.7 42.3 10.8 22.4 29.7 3.7 72.0 135.7 1641 8.3 93-94 28.1 42.3 11.4 24.7 29.7 3.9 72.0 .140.1 1709 8.2 94-95 29.5 83.7 20.2 30.5 29.7 4.1 113.4 197.8 1777 11.1 95-96 28.8 137.9 31.9 35.8 29.7 4.3 lp7.6 268.5 1859 14.4 96-97 27.7 137.9 33.5 40.7 29.7 4.5 167.6 274.0 1941 14.1 97-98 6.1 185.8 44.7 48.5 29.7 4.7 215.5 319.5 2023 15.8 98-99 6.4 236.1 56.8 54.0 29.7 5.0 265.8 388.1 2105 18.4 99-2000 6.6 236.1 59.6 59.9 29.7 5.2 265.8 397.1 2187 18.2 00-0\7.0 236.1 62.6 65.3 29.7 5.5 265.8 406.2 2229 18.2 01-02 7.3 236.1 65.7 71.I 29.7 5.7 265.8 415.6 2270 18.3 02-03 2.7 297.2 81.1 77 .5 29.7 6.0 326.9 494.3 2312 21.4 03-04 2.8 297.2 85.2 84.4 29.7 6.3 326.9 505.7 2353 21.5 04-05 2.9 297.2 89.5 92.I 29.7 6.7 326.9 518.2 2395 21.6 05-06 ---297.2 93.9 lOU.2 29.7 7.0 326.9 528.1 2437 21.7 06-07 ---297.?98.6 109.1 29.7 7.3 326.9 541.9 2478 21.9 07-08 ---297.2 103.6 118.7 29.7 7.7 326.9 556.9 2520 22.1 013-09 ---297.2 10B.7 129.1 29.7 8.1 326.9 572.8 2561 22.4 09-10 ---297.2 114.2 140.3 29.7 8.5 326.9 590.0 2603 22.7 10-11 ---297.2 119.9 152.5 29.7 8.9 326.9 608.2 2645 23.0 TABLE 4.29.Fairbanks-Tanana Valley Area,Medium Growth Scenario,Case 3,0%Inflation New llydroe 1ectl'l c Transmission Total Cost New Coal fired Capacity Costs Systems Total Total Total 'System of Existing I nves tment OM&R 'Coa 1 Investment OM&R Investment OM&R Investment System Consumption,Average Power ~Capacity Costs Costs Costs .---S~f2ill Costs Costs Costs Costs,$MHKWII Costs,t/KWll 78-79 33.8 ---------------0.3 0.2 ---34.2 804 4.3. 79-80 36.6 ---------------0.3 0.2 ---37.0 862 4.3 80-81 39.4 ---------------0.3 '0.2 ---39.8 916 4.3 81-82 41.6 ---------------0.3 0.2 ---42.1 970 4.3 82-83 35.6 ------6.9 ------0.3 0.2 ---43.0 1024 4.2 83-84 33.1 ------7.2 ------0.3 0.2 ---40.8 1078 3.8 84-85 30.3 ------7.3 ------0.3 0.2 ---38.1 1132 3.4 85-86 28.2 18.9 3.8 9.4 ------3.5 1.0 22.4 64.9 1193 5.4 1l6-87 26.1 18.9 3.8 10.9 ------3.5 1.0 22.4 64.2 1254 5.1 87-88 24.0 18.9 3.8 12.4 ------3.5 1.0 22.4 63.7 ·1315 4.8 88-89 22.9 21.5 4.3 13.3 ------3.5 1.0 25.0 66.6 1376 4.8 89-90 23.1 ?1.5 4.3 14.5 ------.18.8 2.0 40.3 fl4.2 1437 5.8 90-91 20.9 27.6 5.5 19.1 ------18.8 2.0 46.4 89.0 1505 5.9 9\-92 21.1 27.6 5.5 15.2 ------18.8 2.0 46.4 90.2 1573 5.7 0 92-93 18.2 27.6 5.5 16.0 18.8 2.0 26.4 88.2 164\5.40'\------ 93-94 13.4 27.6 5.5 16.9 ------18.0 2.0 46.4 89.2 1709 5.2 ~4-95 18.5 27.6 5.5 13.6 34.4 0.1 18.8 2.0 80.0 '120.5 1777 6.0 95-96 16.9 32.3 6.4 13.9 34.4 0.1 18.8 2.0 85.5 124.8 1859 6.7 96-97 14.3 32.3 6.4 15.6 34.4 fJ.\10.0'2.0 85.4 124.0 1941 6.4 97-38 3.7 51.2 10.2 18.7 34.4 0.1 10.8 2.0 104.4 139.2 2023 6.9 98-99 3.7 51.2 10.2 13.0 45.9 0.2 10.8 2.0 115.9 145.1 2105 6.9 99-2000 3.7 51.2 10.2 13.6 45.9 0.2 13.8 2.0 115.9 145.7 2187 6.7 00-01 3.B 51.2 10.2 14 .4 45.9 0.2 18.8 2.0 115.9 146.5 2229 6.6 01-02 3.8 51.2 10.2 15.3 45.9 0.2 18.0 2.0 115.9 147.4 2270 6.5 02-03 1.5 70.1 14.0 16.1 45.9 0.2 18.8 2.0 134.8 \68.6 2312 7.3 03-04 1.5 70.1 14.0 17.1 45.9 0.2 13.8 2.0 134.8 169.6 2353 7.2 0·1-05 1.5 70.1 14.0 18.1 45.9 0.2 \8.8 2.0 134.8 170.6 2395 7.1 05-06 ---70.1 14.0 \9.2 45.9 0.2 18.8 2.0 134.8 170.2 2437 7.0 06-07 ---70.1 14.0 20.2 45.9 18.8 2.0 134.1l 171.2 2478 6.9 07-08 ---70.1 14.0 21.3 45.9 O.18.8 2.0 \34.8 172.3 2520 6.8 08-09 ---70.1 14.0 22.4 45.9 0.2 18.0 2.0 134.8 173.4 2561 6.8 09-\0 ---70.\14.0 23.6 45.9 0.2 18.8 2.0 134.8 174.6 2603 6.7 10-11 ---70.1 14.0 24.7 45.9 0.2 10.3 2.0 134.8 175.7 2645 6.6 TABLE 4.30.Fairbanks-Tanana Valley Area,Medium Growth Scenario,Case 3,5%Inflation H~w t~droelectr1c Transmlsslon Total Cost Hew Coal Flred Capaclty Costs ~tems Total Total Total System of Exlstlng Investment OM&R Coal I nves triieiitoM&R Investment OM&R Investment System Consumpt1on,Average Power ~Year Capaclty Costs Costs Costs Costs_Costs Costs Costs Costs Costs,$fI.MKWH Costs,,/KWH 78-79 30.5 ---------------0.2 0.2 ---30.9 804 3.8 79-80 33.9 ---------------0.2 0.2 .34.2 862 4.0 80-81 37.4 ---------------0.2 0.2 ---37.8 916 4.1 81-82 40.7 ---------------0.2 0.2 ---41.0 970 4.2 82-83 36.6 ------6.9 ------0.2 0.2 ---43.9 1024 4.3 83-84 35.6 ------7.2 ------0.2 0.2 ---43.2 107B 4.0 84-85 33.5 ------7.3 ------0.2 0.2 ---41.3 1132 3.6 B5-06 32.3 26.6 5.3 9.4 ------4.4 1.2 31.0 79.2 1193 6.6 86-07 30.4 26.6 5.5 11.4 ------4.4 1.3 31.0 79.6 1254 6.3 87-88 28.7 26.6 5.8 13.6 ------4.4 1.4 31.0 80.5 1315'6.1 80-89 27.9 30.8 7.0 15.4 ------4.4 1.5 35.2 B7.0 1376 6.3 89-90 29.3 30.9 7.3 17.6 ------29.7 3.2 60.6 lIB.1 1437 8.2 90-91 28.4 42.3 9.B 18.0 ------29.7 3.4 72.0 131.B 1505 B.7 -J '~1-92 30.1 42.3 10.3 20.2 ------29.7 3.5 72.0 136.1 1573 8.6 a '.12-93 26.7 42.3 10.8 22.4 29.7 3.7 72.0 135.7 1641 8.3'...J ------ 93-94 28.1 42.3 11.4 24.7 ------29.7 3.9 12.0 140.1 1709 .8.2 94-95 29.5 42.2 11.9 20.9 12.5 0.2 29.7 4.1 144.4 211.2 1777 11.8 95-96 28.8 53.0 14.7 22.6 72.5 0.3 29.7 4.3 155.2 ,225.9 1859 12.1 96-97 27.7 53.0 15.4 26.5 72.5 0.3 29.7 4.5 155.2 229.6 1941 11.8 97-98 6.15 100.9 25.7 33.2 72.5 0.3 29.7 4.7 203.1 273.1 2023 13.5 98-99 6.4 100.9 26.9 24.4 101.8 0.7 29.7 4.9 232.4 295.7 2105 14.0 99-2000 6.6 100.9 28.3 26.4 101.8 0.7 29.7 5.2 232.4 299.6 2III 7 13.7 00-01 7.0 100.9 29.7 29.5 101.8 0.8 29.7 5.5 232.4 305.1 2229 13.7 01-02 7.3 100.9 31.2 32.0 101.0 0.0 29.7 5.7 232.4 310.2 2270 13.7 02-03 2.7 162.0 44.9 36.6 101.0 0.9 29.7 6.1 293.5 384.7 2312 16.6 03-04 2.8 162.0 47.1 40.6 101.8 0.9 29.7 6.4 293.5 391.3 2353 16.6 04-05 2.9 162.0 49.5 45.1 101.8 1.0 29.7 6.7 293.5 398.7 2395 16 ..6 05-06 ---162.0 51.9 50.0 101.8 1.0 29.7 7.0 293.5 403,4 2437 16.6 06-07 ---162.0 54.6 55.3 101.8 1.1 29:7 7.3 293.5 411.0 2476 16.6 07-00 ---162.0 57.3 61.2 101.0 1.1 29.7 7.7 293.5 420.8 2520 16.1 013-09 ---162.0 60.2 67.5 101.8 1.2 29.7 13.7 293.5 430.5 2561 16.0 09-10 ---162.0 63.2 74.5 101.8 1.2 29.7 6.5 293.5 440.9 2603 16.9 10-11 ---162.0 66.4 82.1 101,1)1.3 29.7 6.9 293.5 452.2 2645 17 .1 TABLE 4.31.Fairbanks-Tanana Valley Area.lIigh Growth Scenario.Case 1.0%Inflation New llydroelectr1c .Transmission Total Cost New Coal Fired cap'aCi~Costs Systems Total Total Total System of Existing lnvestlllent O~~-Coa-Investment OM&R Investment OM&R Investment System Consumption,Average rower ~Capacl ty Costs Costs Cos ts _Costs Costs Costs CosE Costs Costs,$MI~KWH Costs,t/KWH 78-79 38.8 ---------0.3 0.2 ---34.2 1132 4.1 79-80 '36.6 ---------0.3 0.2 ---37.0 903 4.1 80-81 39.4 ---------0.3 0.2 ---39.8 931 4.1 81-82 41.7 ---------0.3 0.2 ---42.1 1059 4.0 82-83 35.7 ------6.9 0.3 0.2 ---43.0 1137 3.8 83-84 33.2 ------7.2 0.3 0.2 ---40.8 1215 3.4 S~-85 30.4 13.9 3.8 9.1 3.5 1.0 22.4 66.7 1294 5.2 85-86 28.3 16.0 3.8 10.6 3.5 1.0 22.4 66.2 1396 4.7 86-87 26.1 37.8 7.6 12.1 3.5 1.0 41.3 86.2 1498 5.9 87-88 24.1 37.8 7.6 15.6 3.5 1.0 41.3 89.7 1600 5.6 88-89 22.9 40.4 8.1 17.2 3.5 1.0 43.9 93.1 1702 5.5 89-90 23.1 59.3 11.9 18.7 3.5 1.0 62.8 117.6 1805 6.5 90-91 20.9 65.4 13.1 -20.5 3.5 1.0 68.9 124.4 1927 6.'5 -I 91-92 21.1 65.4 13.1 22.5 3.5 1.0 63.9 126.7 2049 6.20 CO 92-93 18.3 84.3 16.9 24.6 3.5 1.0 87.8 148.7 2172 6.8 93-94 18.4 84.3 16.9 26.8 3.5 1.0 87.8 150.9 2294 6.6 94-95 18.5 103.2 20.7 28.8 5.3 1.8 108.5 178.3 2417 7.4 95-96 16.9 107.9 21.6 31.5 5.3 1.8 113.2 85.0 2585 7.2 96-97 14.4 126.8 25.4 34.8 5.3 1.8 132.1 208.5 2754 7.6 97-98 3.8 155.5 31.1 39.5 5.3 1.8 160.8 237.0 2922 8'.1 98-99 3.8 184.2 36.8 42.4 5.3 1.8 189.5 274.4 3091 B.9 99-2000 3.8 164.2 36.8 45.8 5.3 1.8 189.5 286.7 3260 B.8 00-01 3.8 184.2 36.6 48.5 5.3 1.8 189.5 280.4 3396 8.3 01-02 3.8 184.2 36.8 51.5 5.3 1.8 189.5 283.4 3531 6.0 02-03 1.5 184.2 36.8 54.3 5.3 1.8 189.5 2!l3.9 3667 7.7 03-04 1.5 212.9 42.5 57.6 5.3 1.8 218.2 321.6 3803 8.5 04-05 1.5 212.9 42.5 60.9 5.3 loB 216.2 324.9 3939 8.2 05-06 --212.9 42.5 64.3 5.3 1.8 218.2 326.8 4074 8.0 06-07 ---212.9 42.5 67.7 5.3 1.8 218.2 330.2 4210 7.8 07-08 ---241.6 48.2 71.3 7.1 2.6 248.7 370.8 4346 8.5 08-09 ---241.6 48.2 74.9 7.1 2.6 248.7 374.4 4481 8.4 09-10 ---241.6 48.2 78.7 7.1 2.6 248.7 378.2 4617 8.2 10-11 ---241.6 48.2 82.6 7.1 2.6 248.7 J1l2.1 4753 8.0 TABLE 4.32.Fairbanks-Tanana Valley Area,High Growth Scenario,Case 1,5%Inflation_._----- NL'W Hydroelectric Transmission Total Cost New Coal fired capacffi Costs ~tems Total Total Total System of Existing JiWestment ()~t!lf oaT-1 nves tment --OHt."IC rnves tment-oMl"R-Investment System Consumption,Average Power ~Capaci.!L-Costs Costs Cos ts Costs fQili Costs Costs Costs Costs,i NMKWIl Costs,t~--- 78-79 30.6 ---------0.2 0.2 ---30.9 832 3.7 79-80 33.9 ---------0.2 0.2 ---34.2 903 3.8 80-81 37.5 ---------0.2 0.2 ---37.8 081 3.9 81-02 40.7 ---------0.2 0.2 ---41.0 1059 3.9 82-83 36.7 ------6.9 0.2 0.2 ---43.9 1137 3.9 83-04 35.6 ------7.2 0.2 0.2 ---43.2 1215 3.6 8-l-85 33.6 25.4 5.0 9.1 4.4 1.2 29.8 78.8 1294 6.1 85-86 32.4 25.4 5.2 10.6 4.4 1.3 29.8 79.4 1396 5.7 e6-87 30.4 4l.l 11.0 12.7 4.4 1'.3 57.7 11l.2 1498 7.6 87-88 28.7 53.3 11.5 17.1 4.4 1.4 57.7 116.5 1600 7.3 88-89 27.9 57.5 13.0 19.8 4.4 1.5 61.9 124.1 17U2 7.3 69-90 29.4 89.9 20.1 22.7 4.4 1.6 94.l 168.1 1805 9.3 90-91 28.5 101.3 23.2 26.1 4.4 1.7 105.7 165.3 1927 9.6 91-92 30.1 10l.l 24.3 29.9 4.4 1.7 105.7 I'll.7 2049 9.4 0 92-93 26.8 138.8 32.9 34.6 4.4 1.8 143.2 239.3 2172 11.0 to 93-94 28.1 136.8 34.6 39.2 4.4 1.9 143.2 247.0 2294 10.8 91\-95 29.6 160.2 44.5 44.3 8.4 3.6 1&8.6 l10.7 2417 12.8 95-96 28.8 191.0 48.9 51.0 &.4 l.8 199.4 lll.9 2585 12.8 96-97 25.7 237.6 57.9 58.9 8.4 4.0 246.0 392.5 2754 14.2 97-98 6.2 l10.2 75.2 70.0 8.4 4.3 318.6 474.3 2922 16.2 98-99 6.4 336.4 94.0 79.3 8.4 4.6 394.8 ,579.2 3091 18.7 99-2000 6.7 306.4 96.7 39.3 8.4 4.8 394.8 594.3 3260 18.2 00-01 7.0 336.4 103.7 99.5 3.4 5.1 394.8 610.1 3396 17 .9 01-02 7.3 386.4 100.0 110.7 .0.4 5.3 394.8 626.9 3531 17.7 02-03 2.7 306_4 114.3 123.1 8.4 5.6 394.8 640.5 3667 17.5 03-04 2.8 483.7 139.3 136.6 8.4 5.8 492.1 776.6 3803 20.4 04-05 2.9 433.7 146.3 151.5 8.4 6.0 492.1 790.8 3939 20.3 05-06 _.~-433.7 153.6 167.6 8.4 6.3 492.1 il19.6 4074 20.1 06-07 483.7 I til.2 185.3 8.4 6.7 492 ..1 045.3 4210 20.1 07-00 602.0 192.8 204.7 16.5 10.2 618.5 1026.2 , 4346 23.6--- 00-09 ---602.0 202.5 225.9 16.5 10.5 6HI.5 1057.4 4431 23.6 09-10 ---602.0 212.6 248.9 16.5 10.9 618.5 1090.9 4617 23.6 10-11 ---602.0 223.2 274.0 16.5 11.4 618.5 1127 .1 4753 23.7 TABLE 4.33.Fairbanks-Tanana Valley Area,High Growth Scenario,Case 2,0%Inflation New I~droelectric Transmission Total Cost New Coal Fired Capacity Costs Systems Total Total Total System of Existing Investment ON&R Coal Investment OM&R fnvestment OH&R Investment System Consumption,Average Power ~Capacity Costs Costs Costs ~ll.-Costs Costs Costs Costs fQ~NHKl-IH Costs,tiKI/II 78-79 33.8 ---------0.3 0.2 ---34.2 832 4.1 79-80 36.6 ------ ---0.3 0.2 ---37.0 903 4.1 80-81 39.4 ---------0.3 0.2 ---39.8 981 4.1 81-82 41.7 ---------0.3 0.2 ---42.1 1059 4.0 82-83 35.7 ------6.9 0.3 0.2 ---43.0 1137 3.8 83-04 33.2 ------7.2 0.3 0.2 ---40.8 1215 3.4 84-85 30.4 13.9 3.8 9.1 3.5 1.0 22.4 66.7 1294 5.2 85-86 28.3 18.0 3.8 10.6 3.5 1.0 22.4 66.2 1396 4.7 86-87 26.1 18.9 3.8 12.1 18.8 2.0 37.7 31.3 1498 5.5 87-88 24.0 18.9 3.8 13.7 13.8 2.0 37.7 81.3 1600 5.1 88-89 22.9 21.5 4.3 15.0 18.8 2.0 40.3 84.6 1702 5.0 69-90 23.1 21.5 4.3 15.4 .18.8 2.0 40.3 85.2 1805 4.7 90-91 20.9 27.6 5.5 14.1 18.8 2.0 46.4 89.0 1927 4.6 ~91-92 21.1 27.6 5.5 15.2 18.8 2.0 46.4 90.2 2049 4.4 '5 92-93 18.2 65.4 13.1 20.2'18 ..8 2.0 84.2 137.8 2172 6.3 93-94 18.4 84.3 16.9 26.3 18.8 2.0 103.1 166.8 2294 7.3 94-95 18.5 84.3 16.9 28.8 18.3 2.0 103.1 .169.4 2417 7.0 95-96 16.9 107.9 21.6 31.5 20.6 2.3 128.5 20i.3 2585 7.3 96-97 14.3 126.3 25.4 34.8 20.6 2.3 147.4 224.8 2754 3.2 97-98 3.7 155.5 31.1 39.5 20.6 2.3 176.1 253.4 2922 8.7 98-99 3.7 155.5 31.1 42.4 20.6 2.3 176.1 256.3 3091 8.3 99-2000 3.7 155.5 31.1 45.8 20.6 2.3 176.1 259.7 3260 8.0 00-01 3.8 155.5 31.1 48.4 20.6 2.8 176.1 262.3 3396 7.7 01-02 3.8 155.5 31.1 51.5 20.6 2.8 176.1 265.3 3531 7.5 02-03 1.5 155.5 31.1 54.3 20.6 2.8 176.1 265.8 3667 7.2 03-04 1.5 104.2 36.3 57.5 .20.6 2.8 204.8 303.5 3fl03 8.0 04-05 1.5 212.9 42.5 60.8 20.6 2.8 233.5 341.2 3939 3.7 05-06 ---212.9 42.5 64.2 20.6 2.8 233.5 343.1 4074 8.4 06-07 ---212.9 42.5 67.7 20.6 2.8 233.5 346.5 4210 8.2 07-08 ---212.9 42.5 71.3 20.6 2.8 233.5 350.1 4346 8.1 00-09 ---212.9 42.5 74.9 20.6 2.8 233.5 353.7 4481 7.9 09-10 ---212.9 42.5 78.7 20.6 2.3 233.5 357.5 4617 7.7 10-11 ---212.9 42.5 82.5 20.6 2.8 233.5 361.4 4753 7.6 TABLE 4.34.Fairbanks-Tanana Valley Area.High Growth Scenario.Case 2.5%Inflation-------- New Hydroelectric Transml ss ion Total Cost New Coa 1 Fl red Calli-it}'Costs Systems Total Total Total System of Exif>ting Investment -Qj.i&-R-{oal Tiives6nent~OM&R Investment OM&R Invef>tmel.t System Consumption,Average PO\~er ~~city _---fQllL-Costs CasU--_Costs__Costs Costs Costs Costs ..j Costs,$MMKWH Costs,UKlm 78-79 30.6 ---------0.2 0.2 ---30.9 832 3.7 79-80 33.9 ---------0.2 0.2 ---34.2 903 3.8 80-81 37.5 ---------0.2 0.2 ---37.8 1961 3.9 81-B2 40.7 ---------0.2 0.2 ---41.0 1059 3.9 82-83 36.7 ------6.9 0.2 0.2 ---43.9 1137 3.9 B3-84 -35.6 ------7.2 0.2 0.2 ---43.2 1215 3.6 8~-85 33.6 25.4 5.0 9.1 4.4 1.2 29.8 78.8 1294 6.1 85-86 32.4 25.4 5.2 10.6 4.4 1.3 29.8 79.4 .1396 5.7 86-87 30.4 25.4 5.5 12.7 26.3 2.8 51.7 103.3 149B -6.9 87-88 28.7 25.4 5.B 14.9 26.3 2.9 51.7 104.1 1600 6.5 88-69 27.9 29.6 7.0 17 .2 26.3 3.1 55.9 111.2 1702 6.5 89-90 29.3 29.6 7.3 18.7 26.3 3.2 55.9 114.6 1805 6.3 90-91 2B.4 41.0 9.8 18.0 26.3 3.4 67.3 127.1 1927 6.6 --'91-92 30.1 41.0 10.3 20.2 26.3 3.6 67.3 131.5 2049 6.4 --' --'92-93 26.7 116.0 25.6 28.3 26.3 3.7 142.3 226.B 2172 10.4 93-94 2B.l 155.4 34.7 38.4 26.3 3.9 lI.l1.7 286.9 2294 12.5 94-95 29.5 155.4 36.4 44.3 26.3 4.1 lB1.7 296.2 2417 12.3 95-96 28.8 209.6 48.9 51.0 30.4 6.0 240.0 374.8 25B5 14.5 96-97 27.7 256.2 60.3 5B.9 30.4 6.3 2B6.6 439.B 2754 16.0 97-9B 6.1 32B.B 77.7 70.7 30.4 6.6 359.2 519.7 2922 17 .8 9B-99 6.4 328.8 81.6 79.3 30.4 6.9 359.2 533.5 3091 17 .3 99-2000 6.6 328.8 85.7 89.2 30.4 7.3 359.2 54B.l 3260 16.8 00-01 7.0 3211.8 89.9 99.5 30.4 7.7 359.2 563.3 3396 16.6 01-02 7.3 328.8 94.5 110.6 30.4 B.I 359.2 579.7 3531 16.4 02-03 2.7 32B.B 99.2 123.1 30.4 8.5 359.2 592.7 3667 16.2 03-04 2.8 426.1 123.4 136.6 30.4 8.9 456.5 72B.2 3B03 19.2 04-05 2.9 520.3 149.9 151.5 30.4 9.3 558.7 li72.3 3939 22.1 05-06 ---52B.3 157.4 167.6 30.4 9.8 550.7 B93.5 4074 21.9 06-07 ---52lL3 165.3 1Ll5.3 30.4 10.3 55B.7 919.6 4210 21.8 07-08 ---528.3 173.5 204.7 30.4 10.8 55B.7 947.7 4346 21.0 08-09 ---52B.3 182.2 225.8 30.4 11.4 558.7 978.1 44m 21.8 09-10 ---5211.3 191.3 2411.9 30.4 11.9 5511.7 1010.B 4617 21.9 10-11 ---528.3 200.9 274.0 30.4 12.5 558.7 1046.1 4753 22.0 TABLE 4.35.Fairbanks-Tanana Valley Area,High Growth Scenario,Case 3,0%Inflation--_._-----• New Ilydl'oelectrlc Transllli ss ion Tota 1 Cos t _..J!gw Coa 111r~~illl£!~_CO$t~Systems Total Total Total System of Existing Investment OHliR·.Coa lnves tme~OM1R Investment OH&R Investment System Consumlltlon.Average Power ~!:-Capaci ty Costs ~o.&ts Costs_~ili-Costs Costs_Costs Costs Costs.$MlI,KWIt l;Qs ts I ¢/KWIt 70-79 30.0 ---------------0.3 0.2 ---34.2 032 4.1 79-30 36.6 -----_.---------0.3 0.2 ---37.0 903 4.1 80-01 39.4 ---------------0.3 0.2 ---39.0 931 4.1 01-02 4I.7 ---------------0.3 0:2 ---42.1 1059 4.0 82-03 35.7 ------6.9 ------0.3 0.2 ---43.0 1137 3.8 83-84 33.2 ------7.2 ------0.3 0.2 ---40.8 1215 3.4. 84-85 30.4 13.9 3.8 ..9.1 ------3.5 1.0 22.4 66.7 1294 5.2 85-85 20.3 18.0 3.8 10.6 ------3.5 1.0 22.4 66.2 1396 4.7 86-87 26.1 10.9 3.8 12.1 ------18.8 2.0 37.7 81.8 1498 5.5 87-88 24.0 18.9 3.8 13.7 ------18.8 2.0 37.7 01.3 1600'5.1 08-89 22.9 21.5 .4.3 15.0 ------113.8 2.0 40.3 04.6 1702 5.0 89-90 23.1 21.5 4.3 15.4 ------18.8 2.0 40.3 05.2 1805 4.7 90-91 20.9 27.6 5.5 14.1 ------10.8 2..0 46.4 B9.0 1927 4.6 91-92 21.1 27.6 5.5 IS.2 ------10.0 2.0 46.4 90.2 2049 4.4 --' --'92-93 lB.2 65.4 13.1 20.2 ------lB.O 2.0 04.2 137.0 2172 6.3 N 93-94 18.4 04.3 16.9 26.3 ------18.0 2.0 103.1 166.0 2294 7.3 94-95 18.5 114.3 16.9 22.6 29.0 0.1 18.8 2.0 132.1 192.2 2417 7.9 95-96 16.9 09.0 17 .0 24.4 29.0 0.1 10.11 2.0 136.8 198.0 25fl5 7.7 96-97 14.4 09.0 17 .0 27.4 29.0 0.1 16.8 2.0 136.11 1911.5 2754 7.2 97-90 3.11 39.0 17.3 32.0 29.0 0.1 18.0 2.0 136.11 192.5 2922 6.6 98·99 3.B 89.0 17 .3 2il.4 38.7 0.2 20.6 2.B 148.3 201.3 3091 6.5 99-2000 3.B B9.0 17.0 30.6 2B.7 0.2 20.6 2.0 14il.3 203.5 3260 6.2 00-01 3.B 107.9 21.6 33.0 30.7 0.2 20.6 2.0 167.2 220.6 .3396 6.7 01-02 3.11 126.0 25.4 35.7 30.7 0.2 20.6 2.8 106.1 254.0 3531 7.2 02-03 •1.5 126.0 25.4 38.3 30.7 0.2 20.6 2.8 llJ6.1 254.3 3667 6.9 03-04 1.5 155.5 31.1 41.2 30.7 0.2 20.6 2.B 214.il 291.6 3B03 7.7 04-05 1.5 155.5 31.1 45.6 30.7 0.2 20.6 2.11 214.0 296.0 3939 7.5 05-06 ---155.5 31.1 47.2 30.7 0.2 20.6 2.0 214.il 296.1 4074 7.3 06-07 --.155.5 31.1 (iO.3 313.7 0.2 20.6 2.0 21Ul 299.2 4210 7.1 07·01l ---155.5 31.1 53.5 30.7 0.2 20.6 2.8 2111.il 302,4 4346 7.0 Oll·09 ---15!Lt)31.1 56.0 3D.7 0.2 20.6 2.B 214.8 305.7 44Bl 6.B 09·10 ---104.2 36.0 60.2 38.7 0.2 20.6 2.11 243.5 343.5 4617 7.4 10-11 ---W4.2 36.n 63.7 30.7 0.2 20.6 2.8 243.5 347.0 4753 7.3 TABLE 4.36.Fairbanks-Tanana Valley Area,High Growth Scenario,Case 3,5%Inflation New lIydroelectrlc Transmission Tota I Cost _/lew C!!!Lf.jr~fL Capaei t..l'...-Costs ..---1Y.ster.l_S__Total ..Total Total System of Existing Investment OM&R Coal Investmenr-OM&R Investment Of4&R Investment System C'on~um;>t Ion.Average Power Year _Capacity Costs Costs CostL-Costs fQi!i Costs Costs Costs Costs,$~lMKI-IH 'Costs,¢/KI-III 78-79 30.6 ---------------0.2 0.2 ---30.9 832 3.7 79-80 33.9 ---------------0.2 0.2 ---34.2 903 3.8 80-81 37.5 ---------------0.2 0.2 ---37.8 981 3.9 81-82 40.7 ---------------0.2 0.2 ---41.0 1059 3.9 82-83 36.7 ------6.9 ------0.2 0.2 ---43.9 1137 3.9. 83-84 35.6 ------7.2 ------0.2 0.2 ---43.2 1215 3.6 84-85 33.6 25.4 5.0 9.1 ------4.4 1.2 29.8 78.8 1294 6.1 85-86 32.4 25.4 .5.2 10.6 ---...--"4.4 1.3 29.8 79.4 1396 5.7 86-87 30.4 25.4 5.5 12.7 ------26.3 2.8 51.7 103.3 1498 6.9 87-88 28.7 25.4 5.8 14.9 ------26.3 2.9 51.7 104.1 1600 6.5 88-89 27.9 29.6 7.0 17.2 ------26.3 3.1 55.9 111.2 1702 6.5 89-90 29.3 29.6 7.3 18.7 ------26.3 3.2 55.9 114.6 1805 6.3 90-91 28.4 41.0 9.8 18.0 .------26.3 3.4 67.3 127.1 1927 6.6 91-92 30.1 41.0 10.3 20.2 ------26.3 3.6 67.3 131.5 2049 6.4 --t 92-93 26.7 116.0 25.6 28.3 26.3 3.7 142.3 226.8 2172 10.4w------ 93-94 28.1 155.4 34.7 38.4 ------26.3 3.9 181.7 286.9 2294 12.5 9~-95 29.6 155.4 36.4 34.8 61.0 0.3 26.3 4.1 242.7 347.9 2417 14.4 95-96 28.8 166.2 40.3 39.5 61.0 0.3 26.3 4.3 253.5 366.7 2585 14.2 96-97 27.7 166.2 42.3 46.4 61.0 0.3 26.3 4.5 253.5 374.7 2754 13.6 97-98 6.2 166.2 44.5 56.7 61.0 0.3 26.3 4.7 253.5 365.9 2922 12.5 98-99 6.4 166.2 46.7 53.1 85.7 0.7 30.5 6.8 282.4 396.1 3091 12.8 99-2000 6.7 166.2 49.1 59.6 85.7 0.7 30.5 7.1 282.4 405.6 3260 12.4 00-01 7.0 224.4 62.4 67.8 85.7 0.8 30.5 7.5 340.6 486.1 3396 14 .3 01-02 7.3 2B2.6 77 .0 76.7 B5.7 0.8 30.5 7.8 39B.8 568.4 3531 16.1 02-03 2.7 282:6 80.9 86.7 85.7 0.8 30.5 8.2 39B.B 578.1 3667 15.8 03-\l4 2.8 380.0 104.2 97.7 85.7 0.9 30.5 8.6 496.2 710.4 3803 18.7 04-05 2.9 380.0 109.5 113.6 85.7 0.9 30.5 9.1 496.2 732.2 3939 18.6 05-06 ---380.0 114.9 123.0 il5.7 1.0 30.5 9.5 496.2 744.6 4074 18.3 06-07 ---3BO.0 120.7 p7.6 85.7 1.0 30.5 10.0 496.2 765.5 4210 18.2 07-08 ---380.0 126.7 153.7 85.7 1.1 30.5 10.5 496.2 788.2 4346 18.1 08-09 ---3BO.0 133.0 171.3 U5.7 1.1 30.5 11.0 496.2 812.6 4481 18.1 09-10 ---510.4 165.5 190.5 85.7 1.2 30.5 11.6 626.6 995.4 4617 21.6 10-11 ---510.4 173.7 211.5 85.7 1.3 30.5 12.2 :626.4 1025.3 4n3 21.6 Allentriesinthetablesareinmillionsofdollarsunlessnoted.Thefirstcolumnisthetotalcostoftheexistingcapacity.Thisincludesinvestment,OM&R,andfuelcostsexceptcoalcostsafter1982-1983asnotedbelow.Thiscolumnincludesthecostofthecombustionturbineunitsplannedthrough1984intheAnchoragearea.Thecostofexistingcapacityisassumedtobethesameforallloadgrowthscenar-iosandsystemconfigurations.Thisassumptioniswarrentedinthiscasefortworeasons.First,anexaminationoftheloadresourceanalysesforthealternativeloadgrowthscenariosandcasesrevealsrelativelylittlevariationintheplantutilizationfactorsamongthevariousscenariosandcases.Second,thecostofoperatingtheexistingcapacityisarelativelysmallpartoftheoverallsystemcostsinthe1990-2010timeperiodwhichisofprimaryinterestinthisreport.Thenextthreecolumnspresentthecosts'forthenewcoal-firedcapaCl~Y.Theinvestmentcostisthetotal ofalltheindividualplantinvestments.TheOM&RcostsarethesumofalltheOM&Rcostsoftheindividualplants.Entriesinthesetwocolumnsbeginthesameyearasthefirstcoal-firedplantcomesonline.Thecoalcostsincludethecoalcostsofthenewcoal-firedcapacity.Inaddition,thecoalcostsoftheexistingcapacityareincludedinthiscolumnafter1982-1983.(Itissubtractedoutoftheexistingcapacityafter1982-1983.)Thenexttwocolumnspresentthecostsforanynewhydroelectriccapacitythatisadded.ThesearetheBradleyLakeproject,theWatanadamandtheDevilCanyondam.AspointedoutearliertheWatanaandDevilCanyoncosts.aredividedbetweentheAnchorage-CookInletare~andtheFairbanks-Tananaareainproportiontotheirrelativeenergyconsumptionin1994.Thetransmissionsystemcostsareshowninthenexttwocolumns.•ThesecolumnscontaintheinvestmentandOM&Rcostsforallthetransmissionlinesrequired.Thetotalinvestmentcostcolumnrepresentsthesumofthenewcoal-firedcapacityinvestmentcosts,thehydroelectriccapacityinvestmentcosts,andthetransmissionsysteminvestmentcosts.Thetotalsystemcostisthesumofallthecosts(notincludingthenewinvestmentcostcolumn).Thetotalsystemconsumptionfiguresarethesameas114 theenergydemandforecastspresentedinChapter3.Theaveragecostofpowerinthetotalsystemcostsdividedbythetotalsystemconsumption.Thecostsofpowerforthe5%inflationcasesare'presentedinFigures4.5)through4.10.Whilethepowercostsaredifferent(lower)forthe0%inflationcases.Therelationshipsamongthevariouscasesarethesameforbothinfla-tionrates.FortheAnchorage-CookInletloadcenterconstructionoftheinterconnec-tion(Case2)reducesthecostofpowercom~aredtothecasewithoutaninter-connection(Case1).Ingeneral,constructionoftheinterconnectionalsoreducesthetotalinvestmentcosts.FortheAnchorage-CookInletareainclusionoftheUpperSusitnaprojectintothesystem(Case3)generallyraisesthecostofpoweraboveCases1and2duringthefirst2to4yearsaftertheWatanaDamcomesonlinebutresultsinlowerpowercostsduringthe1996-2010timeperiod.Thisreductioninthecostofpowerissignificantinmostcases.TheadditionoftheUpperSusitnaprojectappearstoslightlyincreasethetotalinvestmentcostsfortheAnchorage-CookInletareaalthoughthisvariesfromyeartoyear.FortheFairbanks~TananaValleyloadcenterconstructionoftheinter-connection(Case2)againgenerallyreducesthecostofpowercomparedtothecasewithoutaninterconnection(Case1).Ingeneral,constructionoftheinterconnectionalsoreducesthetotalinvestmentcosts.FertheFairbanks-TananaValleyloadcenterinclusionoftheUpperSusitnaproject(Case3)generallyraisesthecostofpoweraboveCase2fqrabout2yearsaftertheWatanaDamcomesonlinebut,aswiththeAnchorage-CookInletarea,resultsinlowerpowercostsduringthe1996-2010timeperiod.TheadditionoftheUpperSusitnaprojectappearstoslightly10we~thetotalinvestmentcost.Insomeofthescenariositisdifficulttodeterminewhichcaseresinthelowesttotalinvestmentorthelowestcostofpowerovertheenti1978-2010timeperiodbylookingatthetables0figures.Onemethodparinginvest~entorcostoveraperiodofyearsistocomputethepresworth.Inequation"form:115 FIGURE4.5.PowerCostsforAnchorageLowLoadGrowthScenario20102005--CASE1~--CASE2..••..••.•.•..CASE32000116....~..'"1995199019853028262422.c:20:§:.::.:::-18VI-CCl)~16V")r-V")014u0:::L.W12:§:00-108642 FIGURE4.6.PowerCostsforAnchorageMediumLoadGrowthScenario2010CASE1---CASE2..........CASE3200520001171995···..................................~f···...:''''l...•11-·.•..:I.....199019853028262422....,!:;..205:~-18VI......c:OJu-16(,/')l-(,/')014uc::l..l.J..$1200...108642 2010CASE1---CASE2.-CASE32005/20001181995........................_.....'..'.'.".....'/.....'-;;;I'.••..'/'l",Ill11/••••/.~..",./19901985FIGURE4.7.PowerCostsforAnchorageHighLoadGrowthScenario3028262422.c20~~-18VI.-c:~~16V)l-V)014uez:::L.U12~0Cl..108642 2010--CASE1---CASE2............CASE3200520001995119.......I.~.r,\..:...........!J:/.::~.....1990PowerCostsforFairbanksLowLoadGrowthScenario3028262422..c:20s:~-18VI......Cc:o~16V')l-V')014u0:::L.l.J12s:00..1086421985FIGURE4.8. FIGURE4.9.PowerCostsforFairbanksMediumLoadGrowthScenarioI·.20102005.".""-.".--CASE1---CASE2•••••...•.-CASE3I2000..,:................:120,.19951990}JI"""-......._119853028262422.c20s:~-18V1.-c:<1)~16V)l-V)014uec::l.l.Js:1200-108642 FIGURE4.10.PowerCostsforFairbanksHighLoadGrowthScenario2010CASE1CASE2CASE3.20052000I. .l:······.i!:"F---./::...:........"...:1211995199019853028262422..c:20:5:~18-Con......c:Cl>~16V)l-V)a14u0:::w..J12:5:a0-108642 122Anchorage-CookInlet-LowLoadGrowthThepresentworthofthetotalinvestmentandthepresentworthofaveragepowercostsareshownbelow.n.2:APC.*---:-1=n1(1+r)iReferenceP.W.TotalP.W.AverageCaseTableNo.Investment($)PowerCosts(¢/kWh)122329.782422517636250470PW=PW=PresentworthofthecostofpowerAPCi=Averagepowercostinyearir=Discountraten=Totalnumberofyears.where:Case3resultsinthelowestcostofpowerfollowedbyCase2andCase1.Case2givesthelowestoverallinvestmentcostswhileCase3resultsinthehighest-investmentcosts.Usi~gthisformulathetotalinvestmentcostandtheaveragepowercostoveraperiodofyearscanbemoreeasilycompared~A7%discountrateisusedinthese~nalyses.Theresultsforeachoftheloadgrowthscenariosforbothoftheloadcentersarebrieflydiscussedbelow. Thepresentworthofthetotalinvestmentisalmostidenticalforallthreecases.ThepresentworthofthecostofpoweristhesameforCase51and2,.whilethepresentworthpowercostforCase3islowest.AgainCase3resultsinthelowestpresentworthforthecostofpower.ForthisscenariaCase2resultsinthelowestpresentworth.investmentwithCases1and3slightlyhigher.Anchorage-CookInlet-MediumLoadGrowth'ReferenceP.W.TotalP.W.AVErageCaseTableNo.Investment($)PowerCosts(~/kWh)18392083210393083312392077868583PJ~.AveragePowerCosts(~/kWh)7053\68377084P.W.TotalInvestment($)141618,Anchorage-CookInlet)-HighLoadGrowthReferenceTableNo.123CaseFairbanks-TananaValley-LowLoadGrowthReferenceP.W.TotalP.I~.AverageCaseTableNo.Investment($)PowerCosts(¢/kWh)120666110222699113324742104Case3givesthelowestcostofpowerwhileCase1givesthelowestinvestmentcost.Case3resultsinthehighestpresentworthinvestmentcost.123 Fairbanks-TananaValley-MediurnLoadGrowthReferenceP.W.TotalP•L·J.AverageCaseTgbleNo.Investment($)PowerCosts(<t:/kWh)1261128117228104211133097099AgainCase3resultsinthelowestpresentworthcostofpower.Inthisscenariohowever,Case3alsogivesthelowestpresentworthtotal-investmentcosts.Fairbanks-TananaValley-HighLoadGrowthReferenceP.i4.TotalP.\~.AverageCase.TableNo.Investment($)PowerCosts(UkvJh)132164211523415871103361527103AgainCase3resultsinthelowestpresentworthcostofpowerandthelowestpresentworthtotalinvestment.124 REFERENCES-CHAPTER41.Taylor,G.A.,ManagerialandEngineeringEconomy,D.vanNostrandCompany,Inc.,Princeton,NJ,1964.125 DearMr.Cross:March6,1979Cl\If::;""!EE:DEMldENERGYREGULATORYCOMMISSIONtIJ:...;::)~;IiIiias\1\a\)'..:;.;:;._....,•••REGIONALOFFICE555BATTERYSTREET.ROOM415.:.HAR·-8f~l2:33SANFRANCISCO.CA94111Althoughwewereunabletomakeanin-depthreviewofthedraftreportduetotimeandstaffinglimitationswedowishtomakethefol10,vingcomments:Page95,secondparagraph,thirds~ntence.FERCestimatedcostsareasofJuly1,1978,notOctober1978isstated.ThiswillrespondtoyourletterofFebruary2,1979,requestingourinformalreviewandcommentsonyourUpperSusitnaProjectPowerMarketDraftReport.Page96,OilandNaturalGas.OurthoughtsonthissubjectwerestatedinourOctober31,1978,lettertotheDistrictEngineer,AlaskaDistrict,CorpsofEngineers.Inthatletterwestatedthatoil-firedcombinedcycleandregenerativecombustionturbineplantsweresignificantlylesscostlythanalternativecoal-firedplantsfortheUpperSusitnaRiverBasin.Wearenotabletostate,however,whichalternativeisthemoreprobablesource.ThedeterminingfactorswouldbetheAlaskafuelsituationandtheinterpretationoftheFuelUseAct.Page95,secondparagraph,lastsentence.TheSanFranciscoRegionalOfficeofFERCdidincludecostadjustmentsforAlaskaconditionsinitspowervaluestudyasitroutinelydoesforallstudiesinAlaska.Page95,lastparagraph,lastsentence.TheinvestmentcostestimatesoftheFairbanksplantare$1475/kT,'1(@5~75%financing)and$1510/kW(@6.875%financing).CostestimatesoftheAnchorage-Kenaiareaplantare$1240/kW(@7.94%financing)and$1220/kW(@6.875%financing).Mr.RobertJ.CrossAdministratorDepartmentofEnergy.AlaskaPowerAdministrationp.O.Box50Juneau,Alaska99802 Sincerely,Appendix,page21,3.2.4,TransmissionLosses.The1.5%forenergylossappearstobelOWeWeappreciatetheopportunitytoreviewandcommentonyourdraftreport.March6;1979- 2 -Mr.RobertJ.Cross~~-e~:ui~~e~lettRegionalEngineerWhiletheFuelUseActprohibitstheuseofoilornaturalgasasprimaryfuelforelectricalgeneration,theDepartmentofEnergy,EconomicRegulatoryAdministration(ERA),ispromulgatingregulationswhichwillprovideforvariousexemptions.Theregulationsareex-pectedtobeissuedinMay.WesuggestthatyoucontactERAonthismatter.Page105,item5.Theretirementscheduleforcombustionturbineisstatedtobe20years.Moststudies.intheContinentalUnitedStatesuse30years.Pages159and160,AssessmentofFeasibility.AcostestimateofCopperValleyElectricAssociation'spurchaseofUpperSusitnapowerwouldbeusefultothisdiscussion. ThankyoufortheopportunitytocommentonyourDraftPowerMarketAnalysis.BothWardSwiftandIreaditoverandcameupwithonlyafewminorcomments.TheprimaryfocusofourreviewwastheconsistencybetweenthebodyofthereportandourbackgroundanalysispresentedinAppendix3.1.Page4,2ndparagraph-Thealternativeon-linedatesof1990,1992,and1994seemtorefertotheinterconnectionon-linedatesforhigh,medium,andlowloadgrowthcasesrespectively.Ibelievethosedatesshouldbe1986, 1989,and1991.Thiswouldbeconsistentwiththedatesgiveninthelastlineonpage109.2.Page8,Tableatbottom-ItappearsthatthecostsofpowerlistedforCase1shouldbethesamenumberslistedfortheCase1ofthecombinedsysteminthetableatthetop'ofpagelll.(i.e.,thecostsofpowershouldbe6.6,6.9,and7.5¢/KWhratherthan7.0,7.0and6.6¢/KWhforthehigh,medium,andlowloadgrowthsrespectively).3.Page17,Installednameplatecapacities-Aspointedoutonpage19thetotalsdifferfromthoseusedbyusinAppendix3.Mostofthedifferencesarerelativelyminor.TheonlymajordifferenceseemstobethecapacitylistedfortheChugachElectricAssociation.Asyouindicatethesedifferencesareduetorecentchangesinplanstoinstallnewcapacity.Thedifferencewouldhaveaminorimpactonthe1978through1985resultsandpracticallynoimpactontheresultsafter1985.neUe-~:.;;.;::\;,.-_.""PacificNorthwestLaboratories.',,';:,.::"c.1\tJ{f'tJ.~.U~,t.Ot'!P.O.Box999"'Richland,Washington99352Telephone(509)942-4745Telex32-6345DearMr.Cross:February27,1979Mr.RobertCrossDepartmentofEnergyAlaskaPowerAdministrationP.O.Box50Juneau,AK99802 Iftheloadfactorisdefinedas:andusedatafortheyear2000,lowloadgrowthaspresentedonpage59wecomputeanannualloadfactorof51%.Mr.RobertCrossFebruary27,1979Page2.516424=1448*8.760GENCAP*8.760ALF=i.e.ALF=ALF=Annualloadfactor(fraction)GEN=Generation(MW)CAP=Capacity(GWH)where:4.Pages52,59,80,andAppendix3page8-AnnualcLoadFactors-Onpage42andAppendix3,page8,bothreportsaregenerallyinagree-mentthattheannualloadfactorispresentlybetween46-52%.InAppendix3wegoontosaythatitappearstheannualloadfactorwillremaininthe50-52%rangeduringthetimehorizonofthere-port.Onpage80itisstatedthatforplanningpurposesitisassumedthattheannualsystemloadfac~orwillbeintherangeof55-60%bythelatterpartofthecentury.Thisislowerthanthe55-60%mentionedonpage80.5.Page95,HealyIIplantcosts-ItwouldbegoodtopointoutthattheGVEAestimateisprobablyintermsof1985$.6.Page101-102,Conclusions- IthinkyoursummaryofthealternativesavailabletoAlaskaisgood. Mr.RobertCrossFebruary27,1979Page37.CoverSheet,Appendix3-EnclosedaredifferentcoverpagesforourreportpresentedinAppendix3andtheAppendicestoourreport.Pleasereplacethecoverpagesyoupresentlyhave.Thankyoufortheopportunitytocommentonthereport.Sincerely,.~c:71~j,JGJJ.JayJacobsenEnergyAssessmentUnitEnergySystemsDepartmentJJJ:twEnclosures IamwritingtoadviseyouofactionstakeninresponsetoyourcommentsonthedraftSusitnaSupplementalFeasibilityReportandalsotocommentonyourdraftPowerMarketAnalysis.Yourletterof26January1979transmittingyourcommentsonourdraftreportarrivedduringthefinalreportprinting.AnydelayatthatpointwouldhavecausedustomissourdeadlinewhichIwasunwillingtopermitexceptunderextremecircumstances.Ontheverbalassurancefromyourstaffthattherewasnothingofsuchgravitythattheinteg-rityofthereportwouldbejeopardized,thedecisionwasmadetopro-ceedwiththeprintingasscheduled.Iregretthatyourwrittencommentsdidnotarrivesooner,becausethereportwouldhavebenefitedfromtheirincorporation.Iamespeciallysensitivetoyour~ontention.thatinsufficientcreditwasgivenwhereAPAmaterialswereused.Inthefuture,mystaffwillbemorecarefulinthisregard.OurreviewofyourexcellentdraftPowerMarketAnalysishasresultedinonlyonecomment.Onpage4younotethatthemorecostlygravitystructureforDevilCanyonis"currentlyproposedIIbytheCorps.ThisisinaccurateinthatthegravitystructurewaspresentedtoinsurethatestimatedcostsweresufficienttocoverarangeofpossiblefoundationconditionsattheDevilCanyonsite..Withappropriatewordchangestocorrectthismatter,wefindnothingelserequiringalteration.SincetheMainReportandAppendixPart1arealready1nWashington,pleasetransmit20copiesofthefinalAppendixPart2toHQDA(DAEN-CWP-W),12MAR1919.:!;!, ._~1·1DEPAR~MEN~OFTHEARMYALA~~A-:D1$'f1~1\tf;C;-:6~PSOFENGINEERS'-'"';i,:;:''::L,Jp:b~'~A~o02-fj1.~.~flN~l-J0RAGE":'L!'?;KA99510~,,JI,.1\\'-J.i·,)':':"REPLYTOATTENTIONOF,DearMr.Cross:NPAEN-PL-RMr.RobertJ.CrossAdministratorAlaskaPowerAdministrationP.O.Box50Juneau,Alaska99802 2Ifyouhaveanyquestions,Mr.ChuckBickleyat(907)752-5135canpro-videassistance.19MAR1979Sincerelyyours,~tM-Il:M/~"_c-::>_~~,"---,~tRNELLET.Sf:r-r-......"--.........-LtColonel,CorpsofEngineersActingDistrictEngineerNPAEN-PL-RMr.RobertJ.CrossWashingtonO.C.20314;2copiestoDivisionEngineer.NorthPacificCorpsofEngineers,210CustomHouse,Portland.Oregon97209,ATTN;NPDPL;andtheremaining138copiestotheAlaskaDistrict,ATTN:NPAEN-US. DEPARTMENTOFTHEARMYALASKADISTRICT~CORPSOFENGINEERSP.O.BOX7002ANCHORAGE.AL.ASKA99510REPLYTOATTENTIONOF:NPAEN-PL-R1 9MAR19i9Mr.RobertJ.CrossAdministratorAlaskaPowerAdministrationP.O.Box50Juneau~Alaska99802Dearr~r.Cross:IamwritingtoadviseyouofactionstakeninresponsetoyourcommentsonthedraftSusitnaSupplementalFeasibilityReportandalsotocommentonyourdraftPowerMarketAnalysis.Yourletterof26January1979transmittingyourcommentsonOU~draftreportarrivedduringthefinalreportprinting.AnydelayatthatpointwouldhavecausedustomissourdeadlinewhichIwasunwillingtopermitexceptunderextremecircumstances.Ontheverbalassurancefromyourstaffthattherewasnothingofsuchgravitythattheinteg-rityofthereportwouldbejeopardized,thedecisionwasmadatopro-ceedwiththeprintingasscheduled.Iregretthatyourwrittencommentsdidnotarrivesooner,becausethereportwouldhavebenefitedfromtheirincorporation.IamespeciallysensitivetoyourcontentionthatinsufficientcreditwasgivenwhereAPAmaterialswereused.Inthefuture,mystaffwillbemorecareful1nthisregard.OurreviewofyourexcellentdraftPowerMarketAnalysishasresultedinonlyonecomment.Onpage4younotethatthemorecostlygravitystructureforDevilCanyonis"currentlyproposedllbytheCorps.ThisisinaccurateinthatthegravitystructurewaspresentedtoinsurethatestimatedcostsweresufficienttocoverarangeofpossiblefoundationconditionsattheDevilCanyonsite.Withappropriatewordchangestocorrectthismatter~wefindnothingelserequiringalteration.SincetheMainReportandAppendixPart1arealreadyin~ashington~~~~~transmit20copiesofthefinalAppendixPart2toHQDA(DAEN-a~p-~~«'~Qm0:.<~~.",1..~1'>?6_191~ NPAEN-PL-RMr.RobertJ.Crossr9rilA'Rtl~ig;HashingtonD.C.20314;2copiestoDivis'ionEngineer,NorthPacificCorpsofEngineers,210CustomHouse,Portland,Oregon97209,i\TTN;NPDPL;andtheremaining133copiestothe,'\laskaDistrict,Ani'~:iiPAEN-US.Ifyouhaveanyquestions,Mr.ChuckBickleyat(907)752-5135canpro-videassistance.Sincerelyyours,::.1LTC.VemelleT.Smith'JERNELlET.SMITHLtColonel,CorpsofEngineersActingDistrictEngineer2 nicipalerl,.J1200EASTFIRSTAVENUEtl4f~8'R..AJ~s{taSKA99501TELEPHON~rl9Q{\...27~76~J!Jr;jf'jliK-)/1l17;50-r"'~";"........14RobertJ.Cross,AdministratorDepartmentofEnergyAlaskaPowerAdministrationP.o.Box50Juneau,Alaska99802DearMr.Cross:ThisletterrespondstoyourletterofFebruary2,1979,whichrequestedinformalcommentsonthedraftPowerMarketAnalysesoftheUpperSusitnaRiverProject.Mr.StahrisoutoftownandIamwritingwithoutknowledgeofhisopinionandcomments.TheMunicipalLightandPower'sstaffcommentsappearinthetwoattachedmemorandums.Mr.Stahrmayforwardmorecommentsuponhisreturn'...Thankyoufortheopportunitytoreviewthedraft.Ifyouhaveanyquestionsorwantmorecommentspleasedonothesitatetocon-tactus.Verytrulyyours,~r:}~-'-MaxFosterRevenueRequirementsSupervisorMF:bwPROVIDEFORTOMORROW,SAVEENERGYTODAY. Mypagebypagereviewofthereportelicitedthefollowingcomments~Significantly,despitetheconservativeassumptionscontainedwithinthereport,theSusitnaprojectrepresentedtheleastcostoptionineverycase.37.5MWgenerationplantisisnota,cogeneration~\.1yc:(Tftcr~_?-\/AnchorageMunicipalityMEMORANDUMMaxFoster,RevenueRequirementsSupervisor,ML&PThomasR.Stahr,GeneralManager,ML&PDOE-APAUpperSusitnaRiverProjectPowerMarketAnalyses.March1,1979Page150-Thepiplineterminal'snotinterconnectedwithCVEA.Itfacility.-r;,i:et.(e-Y1er9j'Fe!FROM:DATE:TO:SUBJECT:Page37-Thelackofcorrelationtoweatherandpricedisburbsme.Itmayindicateimproperequationspecificationcausedbyomittingimportantvariableorfailingtoinsertdummyvariablesintheregressionequationstocorrectforcyclicalabnormalities.Additionally,itseemstom~demandprojectiops,!:<yrateclasswouldbemorestatisticaljl.ytignificant.Ccrre-!crLtt::'17!~-e-J-..o-rl':r'ST;yt)'t\.'30-"\-a..M..01.-thty)c'-(c//cah<:tJI.JblA..-E-Y/<:>-tCVU1?utI17.Page77-TheshapeoftheAnchorageArealoaddurationcurvesuggeststhataheavyproportionofgenerationfortheareacouldbelargebaseloadincrements.Thisisveryfavorableforhydroelectricdevelopment.Page94- Idon'tlikethetreatmentof0&Mcosts.HowdoesthisrelatetoprosentactualAnchoragelaborcostsandtrends?Ithinkthepricesshouldbemeasureddirectly,notarbitrarilyincreased.ThismemocommentsontheAlaskaPowerAdministration'sUpperSusitnaRiverProjectPowerMarketAnalysisdraftdatedJanuary1979.MyimpressionisthatthedemandprojectionsfortheAnchorageareaareconservative.Ialsothinkthattheinstalledcostofcoalplantsisconservative.TheSusitnaprojectcostsareprobablythemostreliablecostestimatesappearingin:hereport.Iamnothappywiththemethodologydevelopingthecostofcoal.Ithinkcoalcouldactuallycostmuchmorethan$1.00to$1.50permillionBTU.Theinflationratesusedintheanalysis(0%and5%)seemlowinlightofrecenttrends.r.f-'•.7 HF:bwAppendix3,Pages66to75-Whereisthepresentworthorannualizedcostofpowercomputed?ThisisamajorchangefromtheeatlierECOS1'2model.Ithinkthepresentworthanalysisisanimportantpartofanypowercostanalysis.toThompsR.Stahr,GeneralManager1,1979Page2Ingeneral,theanalysisseemscomplete.Theconclusionsechothoseof.previousstudies.Fromaneconomicprospective,theSusitnaProjectisunquestionablyjustified.Itstimetostoprevisingieasibilityanalysesandgetonwithllcenslngandconstructl0n. JAYS.HAMMONDGOVERNORPOUCHAD-JUNEAU9981/PHONE465-3577Pow~rMarketAnalysis-DraftontheUpperSusitnaRiverProjectStateLD.No.79020902UJ.JLJ.l::~ofMarch23,1979Rr.-('f,:"IVFO~lr&lr~is~@~I~~&~~&OFFI(1~·~OF·i""1III'Jf.lII::J':l::iif<.n.1Ii.7l1f:'1IIlilo"LT,n.1IIliI>P,LA:JI-\j.\DIVISIONOFPOLICYDEVELOPMENTANDPLANNINGJimCheathamDepartmentofEnergy,=J"a~,~aPowerAdministrationBox50;AI<99801 percentfornon-in-tems."IcheckedDOEregulationsonshm'Jeda1ass",156.2GWH.Thisresultsin-0..AMl&Pgenerationtotalin1965to407.0GWH.TI",~nt·"years.Page98liststheUpperSusitna.Butuseproblems."anttobeonto6 sappearsreason-steamplantordoesn'treallymatter.Thetbeaffected.ANALYSESandfindnothingcontrover-ntsI11commenton,sourcesas"notrealisticthatmuchmoreworkwillenergy."thweather.. .seem-useandweathercam-myorwithplaincommonTA1~or'A~tenergyrequirements.In\"o:,rr,o~waswarmerthannormal.rate.However,thisdoesusingdifferentgrowthneer1,H.C.February15,1979ThomasR.Stahr,OnpagesplanninghavetoIhavereviewedsialinit.isannoneofwhich,however,Page34ofthelinein1982dulingperiod[fromable."EitherCEAisBattelle'sdatesareinconsisrelativeeconomicsSusitnaOnpage33,Table5areagrowth1964-1in1965wasactual1964-1965growthtoOnpages37and38edindeterminableparisonswereisense.ho'rw",c:>nthreeIgnoringnotaffectrates(low,Itisinterest;sixmajortheyallremainOnpage104terconnected1thesenumberstransitiofloadnY'f"ln;:,nsamebasreservethelargerint,~r(:onne!:tE:dcapacitywi1UBJECT:DOEAPAUPPERSUSI