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APA4049v3
96thCongress,2dSessionSenateDocumentNo.96-68,Part3SOUTH-CENTRALRAILBELTAREA,ALASKA(HYDROELEC-TRICPO'VER),UPPERSUSITNARIVERBASINLETTERFROMTHESECRETARYOFTHEARMYTRANSMITTINGALETTERFROMTHECHIEFOFENGINEERS,DEPARTMENTOFTHEARMY,DATEDFEBRUARY8,1977,SUBMITTINGAREPORT,TO-GETHERWITHACCOMPANYINGPAPERSANDILLUSTRATIONS,ONSOUTH-CENTRALRAILBELTAREA,ALASKA(HYDROELECTRICPOWER),UPPERSUSITNARIVERBASIN,INPARTIALRESPONSE.TOARESOLUTIONOFTHECOMMITTEEONPUBLICWORKS,UNITEDSTATESSENATE,ADOPTED.JANUARY18,1972INTHREEVOLUMESVOLUMEIII1/\1~{5,;;14211118',Lf()Ifi60-7380OCTOBER-1980.-ReferredtotheCommitteeonEnvironmentandPublicWorksandorderedtobeprintedU.S.GOVERNMNNTPRINTINGOFFICEWASHINGTON:1980FEB2 31981 Ii~'[Printedunderauthorityoftitle33,USC,section701-1(a)] SOUTHCENTRALRAILBELTAREA,ALASKAUPPERSUSITNARIVERBASINSUPPLEMENTALFEASIBILITYREPORT.HYDROELECTRICPOWERANDRELATEDPURPOSESPreparedbytheAlaskaDistrict,CorpsofEngineersDepartmentoftheArmyFebruary19791 INTRODUCTIONAsurveyinvestigationoftheSouthcentralRailbeltAreaofAlaskawasinitiatedbytheAlaskaDistrictin1974,andanInterimFeasibilityReportontheupperSusitnaRiverbasinwascompletedin1976.Consid-erableefforthadbeenexpendedpreviouslybytheBureauofReclamationforgeotechnicalexploration,andbyotherStateandFederalgroups.Thesurveyinvestigationentailedareviewofenergyalternativesavail-abletomeetintermediaterangepower'requirementsofAlaska'srailbeltarea,ascreeningofthesealternatives,andanassessmentofeffectsforthemorefeasiblealternatives.AnumberofdevelopmentschemesfortheupperSusitnaRiverwereanalyzed,andatleastthreewerefound'tobeeconomicallyfeasible.AsanalternativetoSusitnahydro-power,coalwasfoundtobethemostlikelyfutureenergysourceforbothAnchorageandFairbanksalthoughitwouldbeapproximately30per-centmoreexpensivethanSusitnapower.TheInterimFeasibilityReportestablishedwithreasonablecertaintythatSusitnahydropowerdevelopmentiseconomicallyjustified,andthattherearenoadverseenvironmentalimpactsofsuchmagnitudethattheprojectshouldnotbeconsideredfurther.Thestudyfoundthattheplanbestservingthepublicinterestconsistsofatwo-damsystemutilizingtheWatanaandDevilCanyondamsitesontheSusitnaRiver.PowerwouldbeprovidedtotheFairbanks-TananaValleyandAnchorage-KenaiPeninsulaloadcentersviaa364-miletransmissionline.TheInterimFeasibilityReportwasthebasisforconditionalauthori-zationofPhaseI'studies.Secticn160ofPublicLaw94-587,theWater~, 4ResourcesDevelopmentActof1976enactedbythe94thCongresson22October1976,states:TheSecretaryoftheArmY,actingthroughtheChiefofEngineers,isauthorizedtoundertakethePhaseIdesignmemorandumstageofadvancedengineer-inganddesignoftheprojectforhydroelectricpowerontheSusitnaRiver,Alaska,inaccordancewiththerecommendationsoftheBoardofEngineersforRiversandHarborsinitsreportdatedJune24,1976,atanestimatedcost$25,000,000.ThisshalltakeeffectuponsubmittaltotheSecretaryoftheArmybytheChiefofEngineersandnotificationto'CongressoftheapprovaloftheChiefofEngineers.NotificationtoCongressoftheChiefofEngineers'approvalhasbeenforestalledbecauseofOfficeofManagementandBudget(OMB)reservationsregardingeconomicjustification.InalettertotheSecretaryoftheArmydated9September1977,EliotR.Cutler,OMBAssociateDirectorforNaturalResources,EnergyandSciencestated,1I•••westronglybelievefurtherinformationisneededtoverifythebenefit-coststatusbeforetheprojectproceedstoPhaseIplanning.1IDuring1978,additionalgeologicalexplorations,engineeringandenvironmentalresourcestudies,andeconomicanalyseswereundertakentoaddresstheconcernsexpressedbyOMB.ThisSupplementalFeasibilityReportpresentstheresultsofthoseadditionalinvestigations.Thereportconsistsofthreedocuments:amainreportthatrespondsspecificallytothecommentsandsuggestionsofferedbyOMBandatwopartsupportingappendixthat;scornprisedofSectionsAthroughI.ThesecorresponddirectlytothesectionsofAppendix1ofthe1976InterimFeasibilityReport.ThisSupplementalFeasibilityReportisnotdesignedasacomprehensivedocument.Rather,onlychangestotheoriginalreportandnewinformationpertinenttoOMB'scommentsarepresentedhere. MAINREPORTTABLEOFCONTENTSItemSUMMARYScopeofInvestigationsStudyResultsWATANASITEGEOLOGYANDTESTBORINGSScopeofGeologicalInvestigationsFindingsandDesignChangesCONTINGENCYESTIMATESAREAREDEVELOPMENTBENEFITSCONSTRUCTIONSCHEDULEGeneralDiversionPlansMainDamsEffectofDelaySUPPLYESTIMATESIntroductionNaturalGasAvailabilityOilPriceChangeImpactsAnchorage-FairbanksIntertiePowerp1antSchedulingandRiskReductionDEMANDESTIMATESForecastMethodologyPopulationandEconomicActivityForecastForecastResultsUtilitySectorNationalDefenseSectorSelf-suppliedIndustriesSectorSENSITIVITYANALYSISIntroductionSnettishamReviewImplicationsforSusitnaCurrentEvaluation5Page66814141620232525252626292931333537393940414243444747475051 !I,II]i,.",iiIi'ISUMMARYSCOPEOFINVESTIGATIONSThepurposeofthissupplementalfeasibilitystudywastoreevaluatetheeconomicjustificationoftheproposedupperSusitnaRiverbasinhydropowerdevelopment(seePlate1).BothbenefitsandcostswerereanalyzedintheprocessofrespondingtotheconcernsexpressedbytheOfficeofManagementandBudget.CertainadditionalstudiesnotspecificallysuggestedbyOMB~butrequiredtoinsurecomparabilityinthedata,werealsoundertaken.Studyeffortsweredirectedatthoseaspectsoffeasibilitytowhichthebenefitandcostestimatesaremostsensitive.Projectcostsarehighlydependentuponsitefoundationconditions~andasignificantamountofnewgeologicalinformationwasgatheredduringthesupplementalstudiesin1978.GeologicalreconnaissanceandmappingwereconductedattheWatanadamsitetoidentifyandtracethesurfaceexpressionsofdiscontinuitiesandshearzones,andalsointhereservoirareatoidentifypotentialslidehazards.Coreboringsweremadeatthedamsitetoverifythedepthofoverburdenmaterialsandqualityofbedrock.Potentialborrowsourceswereexploredtodeterminetheextentandqualityofavailableconstructionmaterials.Refractionseismographstudieswereperformedtosupplementthedatagainedfromtheboringsandtestpits.RefertoPlate2forexplora-tionlocationsastheWatanasite.6 SupplementalexplorationsattheDevilCanyonsitewheredrillinghadpreviouslybeenconductedwerelimitedtothreeseismicrefractionlines,eachapproximately1,100feetlong.Whilefoundationconditionsplayakeyroleinestimatingprojectcosts,thosecostsarealsoverydependentuponthecontingencyfactorsused.Afeature-by-featureanalysiswasmadetodeterminetheappro-priatecontingencyfactoronthebasisofcosthistoriesofsimilarprojects,experienceinAlaskanconstruction,andanalysisoftheun-certaintiesassociatedwiththedesignandmaterialrequirementsofthevariousfeatures.Athirdelementofthesupplementalstudiesthatimpactedcostw~stheconstructionschedule.Mobilization,riverdiversion,andmaterialplacementrequirementswerecloselyexaminedalongwiththeinterdepen-denciesamongconstructionactivitiestodeterminethelengthoftimerequiredforconstruction.Thenewlyacquiredgeologicalinformationledtodesignmodificationswhich,ofcourse,alsoaffectedthecostestimates~Inadditiontothefactorsinfluencingprojectcosts,thereareanumberofdeterminantsofprojectbenefitsthatwerealsoanalyzed.First,theproject'spowercapabilitywasreexaminedusinganadditional3yearsofhistoricalstreamflowdataandanupdatedseasonalloadcurve.Loadgrowthforecastswererevisedusing3additionalyearsofhistori-caldata,moresophisticatedpopulationandeconomicactivityforecast-ingtools,andmoreconservativeeconomicdevelopmentassumptions.A7 rangeofforecastsweremade,reflectingtheuncertaintiesinvolvedinpowerdemandprojections.Aload-resourceanalysiswasdevelopedandusedtoe~plorethesequenceandtimingofpowerplantadditionsfortherailbeltareaandtodeterminehowquicklySusitnapowerwouldbeabsorbedintotheload.'Powerbenefitestimateswereevaluatedusing1978costestim~tesofthermalgeneration,thecostofwhichestablishesthevalueofthehydropowerproject'soutput.Theothercategoriesofbenefits,includingloadcenterinterconnection,recreation,floodcontrol,andemployment,werealsoupdated.Finally,acomprehensivesensitivityanalysiswasconductedtoascertainthoseconditionsunderwhichtheSusitnaprojectwouldbecomeuneconomic.ThiswasaugmentedbyamarketabilityanalysisthatestimatesthecostofSusitnapowerrelativetothermalgenerationundervariousloadgrowth,timingandpricelevelassumptions.Otheraspectsoffeasibilitywhichwerethesubject.ofsupple-mentalanalysesincludedseismicityandenvironmentalimpactstudies.STUDYRESULTSAttheWatanadamsite,the'technicalfeasibilityofconstructingadaminthegeneralvicinitywasreconfirmed.Therockatthedamsitewasfoundtobeasgoodorbetterthanpreviouslyassumed.Gravelborrowappearstobelessabundantthananticipated,butlargedepositsofimperviousmaterialwerelocatedduringtheexplorations.Totakeadvantageofthesefindings,thedamdesignwasalteredbychanging8 thegravelshellstorockshellsandbywideningthesemiperviouscore(seePlates3and4).OthermodificationsoftheoriginalWatanadesignincludedrelocationofthespillwaytotakebetteradvantageofrocklines,relocationofthediversiontunnelportalstoplacetheminbetterrock,terracedratherthancontinuousrockcutsandotherminorchanges.AtDevilCanyonagravitydamdesignwasevaluatedasanalterna-tivetotheoriginalconcretethinarchconcept(seePlates5and6).Thegravitystructure,whichismorecostlybutlesssensitivetofoun-dationproblems,offersgreaterassurancethatadamcanbebuiltattheDevilCanyonsiteatacostequaltoorlessthantheestimatedcostpresentedinthereport.ThelesscostlythinarchdamwithseparatespillwaywillbeconsideredfurtherifadditionalexplorationsduringPhaseIstudiesestablishacceptablefoundationconditions.Byincludingintheeconomicanalysisthehighercostofthegravitydam,theproject'seconomicjustificatio~ispresentedon'amoreconservativebasis.Theconstructionperiodfortheentireprojectisnowestimatedat14years,withpower-on-1inefortheinitialphaseoccurringin1994.Thescheduleallows10yearsforWatana'constructionand8yearsforDevilCanyon,with4yearsofconcurrentconstruction.Thetrans-missionintertiecouldbeavailablein1991tointerconnecttheAnchorageandFairbanksloadcenters.ThisscheduleisbasedonaconstructionstartinOctober1984.9 TheSusitnaprojectisestimatedtocost$2.59billionatOctober1978prices.Thisincludes$1.77billionforWatanaandthetransmis-sionfacilitiesand$0.82billionfortheDevilCanyonphase.The1978combinedprojectcostestimateamountstoa70percentincreaseoverthecostestimatepresentedinthe1976InterimFeasibilityReport,whichwasbasedonJanuary1975prices.Approximately56percentofthisincreaseisduetopricelevelchangesoverthe3-3/4yearsbetweenestimates.Another15percentistheresultofusingthecostofthealternateconcretegravitydesignatDevilCanyon.Theremainderoftheincreaseresultedfromdesignchangesandmoredetailedinformationonlocalconstructionmaterials.Wheninterestduringconstructionisadded,alongwithoperation,maintenanceandreplacementcosts,theaverageannualequivalentcostbecomes$228million,basedonadiscountrateof6-7/8percent.Theproject'scombinedpoweroutputisestimatedat6.9billionkilowatthoursaverageannualenergyand1,392megawattsdependablecapacity.Railbeltareapowerrequirementsareforecastedtogrowto12.7billionkilowatthoursannualenergyand2,850megawattspeakpowerbytheyear2000accordingtothemediumrangeprojection.Susitnapowerwouldneedtobeaugmentedbyadditionalcapacityfromotherpowerplants,presumablycoal-fired,within9yearsafterinitialpower-on-line.TheestimatedaverageannualbenefitsoftheSusitnaprojectamountto$324million.Thisrepresentsanincreaseof119percentoverthose10 presentedinthe1976report,whichwerebasedonaJanuary1975pricelevel.Byfarthelargestcategoryofbenefitsisthatwhichresultsfromthesaleofpower.Thevalueofthepowerisderivedfromthecostofproducingitbymeansoftheleastcostnonhydroalternativewhich,inthiscase,iscoal-firedgeneration.Thecostofthethermalalter-nativewasprovidedbytheFederalEnergyRegulatoryCommission(FERC)andisbased'on1978pricelevels.TheFERCcompositeAnchorage-Fairbankscapacity,valueof$186.58perkilowatt-yearrepresentsa107percentincreaseoverthecomparableestimateprovidedbyFERC(thentheFederalPowerCommission)in1975.The1978compositeenergyvalueoJ12.76millsperkilowatt-houramountstoa144percentincrease-overthecomparableestimateof1975.Thesehigherestimatesmorethandoublethepowerbenefittoanaverageannualequivalentof$289million.Besidesthosefromthesaleofpower,therearepower-relatedbenefitsderivedfrominterconnectionoftheAnchorageandFairbanksloadcenters.Aninterconnectedsystemallowsthesharingofcapacityreservessothatfewerreservesarerequiredinthesystem.Thus,interconnectionoffersbenefitsequaltothecostsavingsfromnotconstructingadditionalcapacitythatwouldotherwisehavebeenneces-sary.Thisbenefitamountstoanaverageannualequivalentof$11million.Recreatio~benefitsestimatedat$300,000annuallyarenochangefrom'the1976report.Thebenefitsassociatedwithfloodcontrolare11 estimatedat$65~000annually,anincreaseof30percentoverthe1975figureduesolelytopricechangesassociatedwithrepairtodamagedfacilities.Thefinalbenefitcategory,thatattributabletotheuseofother-wiseunemployedlaborinprojectconstruction,isestimatedatanaverageannualequivalentof$24million.The155percentincrease.inthisbenefitovertheoriginal1975estimateisduetothehighercostofconstructionandmoredetailedanalysisoflaborrequirements•.Underthebasecasesetofassumptions,the.proposedSusitnaprojectoffersannualnetbenefitsof$95millionandabenefit-costratioof1.42.Thehydropowerproject'snetbenefitsexceedthoseofthethermalalternativeby$76millionannually.Withanassumptionofstablepricesandmediumloadgrowth,theyear2000averagepowersystemrateswiththeSusitnaprojectareestimatedat5.5¢/kWhinAnchorageand6.7¢/kWhinFairbanks.Thisr~presentsa17percentand25percentsavingsovertheanticipated6.6¢/kWhand8.9¢/kWh·rateswithoutSusitnapower.Insummary,thesupplementalfeasibilitystudiesun~ertakenduring1978haveconfirmedtheadequacyoftheWatanasiteforconstructionoftheproposedfacilities.Theprojectdesignhasbeenrefinedinlightofthenewlyacquiredgeologicandfoundation.information.Theneedforadditionalpowerintherailbeltareahasbeenverified,andadditionalenvironmentalresourceinformationhasbeenaddedtothedatabase.Thereviewofprojectcostsandbenefitshasindicatedthat12 theSusitnaprojectiseconomicallyjustifiedunderabroadrangeofpossiblefutures.Finally,Susitnapowerhasbeenshowntobemarketableandlesscostlythananyviablealternative.Thedirectiontakenintheconductofthesesupplementalfeasi-bilitystudieswaslargelydictatedbytheconcernsregardingprojectjustificationexpressedbytheOfficeofManagementandBudget.Theremainderofthemainreportrespondstothespecificquestionsraised.byOMB.TheAlaskaPowerAdministrationoftheDepartmentofEnergyandBattellePacificNorthwestLaboratoriesbothcontributedsignifi-cantlytotheanalysisandtotheformulationoftheresponses.Supplementarydataandanalysisinsupportoftheresponsesarecontainedintheappendix.13 WATANASITEGEOLOGYANDTESTBORINGSOMBCOMMENTThecostestimatesforWatanahavebeenderivedwithoutbenefitofanytestboringsattheWatanasite.ThisisadeparturefromstandardCorpspractice,whichcallsforexploratorydrillingatallsitesbeforeprojectsareproposedforauthorization.Testboringswouldprovidemorereliabledataonwhichtobasecostestimatesandonwhichtoassessanypotentialseismicproblems.TheWatanasiteis.locatedneartheSusitnaFaultandalsowithin50milesoftheDenalifault-anareawheremajorearthquakeshaveoccurredinthepast.SCOPEOFGEOLOGICALINVESTIGATIONSFieldReconnaissanceGeologicreconnaissanceandmappingofthereservoirareaanddamsitewereconductedconcurrentlywithsubsurfaceinvestigationsthroughoutthespringandearlysummerof1978.Withinthedamsiteareatheprimarypurposewastolocate,identify,andtracethesurfaceexpressionsofdiscontinuitiesandshearzonestoaidindirectingthedrillingprogramandtoprovideapreliminarygeologicmapofthesite.Withinthereservoirarea,theprimarythrustofthereconnais-sancewastoidentifybyreasonofshape,structure,oroverburdenmantletheslopesthatcould~evelopslumpsorslidesasaresultofpermafrostdegradationorseismicaction.BoringsandTestPitsDuring1978,explnrationswereconductedinthedamfoundationandrelictchannelarea.Coreboringsinthevalleywallsandfloor14 wereusedtoexplorethequalityandstructureofthefoundationrockandtoobtainrepresentativesamplesfortesting.Boringsintherelictchannelareawereusedtodefinedepthofoverburden,theextentofpermafrost,andthelocationofthewatertableaswellastoexaminethenatureandconditionofthematerialsbydrilling.Alsodurlng1978,numeroustestpitswereduginpotentialborrowareasutilizingtractor-mountedbackhoes.Bulksacksampleswereretrievedfromeachtestpitforlatertesting.Shallowaugerholeswerealsousedtodeterminetheextentofdepositsandtoverifytheexistenceofquantitiesnecessaryforembankmentconstruction.SeismicRefractionSurveysAseismicrefractionexpl~rationprogramconsistingof22,500linealfeetofseismicrefractionlineswascompletedbyDamesandMoore,Consultants,in1975.Inthefallof1978,anadditionalseismicrefractionsurveywascompletedbyShannonandWilson,Consultants,whichincluded47,665feetofseismicrefractionlines~ThesurveyconfirmedtheDamesandMoorefindingsofaburiedrelictchanneland,ingeneral,supportedconclusionsrelatingtorockqualityintheabutmentsasinterpretedfromtherecentcoreboringsandgeologicreconnaissance.TheShannonandWilsonstudyalsoconfirmedthe'existenceoflargequantitiesofborrowmaterialsonTsusenaCreek.Thespecificlocationsoftheexploratoryborings,testpits,andseismicrefractionlinesareshownonPlate2.15 FINDINGSANDDESIGNCHANGESAsaresultoftheadditionalfieldexplorationandgeologicstudiesin1978,amoreknowledgeableassessmentoftheproposedprojectcanbemade.Followingisasummaryoftheitemswhichreflectchangestothe1976InterimFeasibilityReportorreinforceitsbasicconcepts.NothingwasfoundduringthisphaseofthestudytocastdoubtonthefeasibilityofadamattheWatanasite.All.exp10rationandgeologicstudiesreinforcethepreviousconclusionthatalargeearthandrock-fillorconcretegravitydamcouldbebuiltinthisVicinity.Explorationsatthe.damsiteindicatethattherockisasgoodorbetterthanpreviouslyassumed.Foundationrockisconsideredadequatetosupporteitheranearthandrockfi11orconcretegravitystructureatthissite.The1978explorationprogramconfirmedtheexistenceofmarginalpermafrostinthearea.Specificlocationsofpermafrostwereidentifiedandanumberoftemperaturemeasuringdeviceswereinstalled.Itwasdeterminedthatthisisavery"warm"permafrost,rangingintemperaturefrom00Cto_10C.Permafrostwasencounteredinbedrockintheleftabutmentofthedamanditseffectsonthegroutinginthisareaarediscussedintheappendix.Permafrostwasalsoencounteredinthe'imperviousborrowarea;however,itisnotconsideredtobeaseriousproblemasitisquitewarmandcanbeeasilyexcavated.The197~reportenvisionedratherlargeamountsofgravelsavail-ableforconstructionoftheshellsofthedamandlimitedamountsof.16 rimperviouscorematerial.However,therecentexplorationsindicatethatthereverseistrue.Largequantitiesofgravelwerenotlocated,butlargequantitiesofimperviouscorematerialwerediscoverednearthedamsite.Becauseoftheapparentshortageoflargequantitiesofgravelandthe~xcessofimperviousmaterial,thedamsectionhasbeenrevised'withgravelshellshavingbeenchangedtor,ockshells.Thischangetorockfi11hasallowedtheuseofasteeperslopeontheup-streamfaceofthedam.Alargeportionoftherockwillcomefromrequiredexcavationofthespillwayandtheremainderwi11comefromexcavationofundergroundfacilitiesandaccessroadsandfromalargeborrowsourceontheleftabutment.Thecorehasbeenwidenedsomewhatfromthatshowninthe1976reportandazoneofsemiperviousmaterial,approximatelyofthesamewidthasthecore,hasbeenadded.Thiswasdonebecauseofthelargeamountsofthismaterialavailableandbecauseourestimatesshowthatitcanbeplacedwithinthedamataconsiderablylowercostthantherockshellmaterial.Thetotalthicknessoftheseimperviousorsemi-perviouszoneswasdeterminedbyconsideringtheireffectonthetotalstabilityofthedamandthedifficultiesofplacingmaterialswhichrequirecarefulmoisturecontrolinthearcticenvironment.Laboratorytestsperformedonthesematerialsindicatethatoptimummoisturewillbeacriticalfactorintheircompaction.Thefoundationexcavationhasbeenincreasedinordertoremoveallgravelsfrombeneaththe:.embankmentandstriptheentiredamfoundationtobedrock.17 The1976reportshowedaverticalaccessshafttothelow-leveldrainsystemwhichpassedthroughtheembankmentofthedam.Thishasbeenchangedtoatunnelthroughtherightabutmenttherebyeliminatinganystructuresinthedamembankment.Agroutgalleryhasbeenaddedtothelowerportionsofthedamtofacilitategroutingandtoaccommodatetheprocessofthawingthepermafrostrockforgrouting.Thespillwayshowninthe1976reporthasbeenrelocatedtothesouthwesttoinsurerockcutforitsentirelength.Therockandoverburdenmaterialfromthislargeexcavationwillbeutilizedinthedamembankment.Also,thediverisontunnelportalshavebeenshiftedtoinsuretheirlocationinsoundrock.The1976reportdiscussesapotentialproblemofseepagealongarelictchannelintherightabutmentarea.The1978explorationprogramverifiedtheexistenceofthischannel;however,studiesindicatethatitisnotaproblemandnoremedialactionsarenecessary.EllisKrinitzskyoftheWaterwaysExperimentStationandRubenKachadoorianandHenryJ.MooreoftheU.S.GeologicalSurveywerecontractedtoperformseismicstudiesandevaluatetheearthquakeriskatthesesites.Theirworkwasdividedintotwophases:KachadoorianandMooreperformedthefinalreconnaissanceofactivefaultsandothergeologichazards,andKrinitzskyassessedthepoten-tialforearthquakesassociatedwithsuchfaulting.TheresultingUSGSreportrecognizedthatthisisahighlyseismicregion;however,18 theirreconnaissanceoftheproposedDevilCanyonandWatanadamsitesandreservoirsdidnotuncoverevidenceofrecentoractivefaultingalonganyoftheknownorinferredfaults.TheirstudiesdidnotfindanyevidenceoftheSusitnaFaultwhichwaspreviouslythoughttoexistashortdistancewestoftheWatanadamsite;therefore,theywerenotabletoconfirmtheexistenceofsuchafault.USGSalsonotedtheareas.whereslidesmightbeexpectedtooccuralongthevalleywallsundertheinfluenceofsaturationandthawingpermafrost.Krinitzsky'sworkassessedthepossibleoccurrenceofearthquakesatthedamsitesandthemotionsthatarelikelytobeassociatedwithearthquakeactivity.Hisfindingsindicatethatthedesignoftheproposeddamstowttnstandsuchmotioniswithin thestateoftheart~forseismicdesign.19 CONTINGENCYESTIMATESOMBCOMMENTAstandard20percentcontingencyfactorwasusedinarrivingatcostestimates.Acontingencyof30percentcouldresultinreducingthebenefit-cost-ratioto1.Alargercontingencyfactorcouldreducetheratiobelowunity.TherecentlycompletedSnetti-shamprojectinAlaskacost36percentmorethanoriginalestimates,aftercorrectionforinflation.Areviewofthe20percentcontingencyfactorshouldbeundertaken,inlightofthebestexistinginformationoncomparableprojectsandp,rojectloca-tions.Contingencyfactorshavebeenreviewedandadjusted.Thereviewincludedincorporationofthenew1978foundation,material,and.topographicinformation.Insteadofutilizingasinglecontingencyfactorfortheprojectasawhole,eachmajorfeaturewasexaminedindiViduallytoderiveacontingencythatreflectstheuncertaintiesassociatedwiththedesignandcostofthatspecificfeature.ThetotalestimatedcontingenciesfortheWatanaprojectareapproximately$246millionor18percentoftheestimatedtotalconstructioncost.Individualfactorsrangefrom15percentfortherelativelywelldefinedearthandrockfillmaindamto20percentformanyoftheotherfeatures.ThecontingenciesusedfortheDevilCanyonprojectwereadjustedintwoways.First,afundamentalchangeinthedesignconceptwasmade.Toinsurethatthecostestimatesinthissupplementalfeasi-bilitystudyweresufficienttocoverthepossibilityofunexpected20 foundationconditionsattheDevilCanyonsite,aconcretegravitydamdesignwasanalyzed.Theconcretegravitystructurerequireslessidealfoundationconditionsthandoestheconcretethinarchstructurerecommendedinthe1976report.WhiletheconcretearchdesignisstilldeemedengineeringlyfeasibleonthebasisoftheavailableDevilCanyongeologicalexplorations,thelesssensitiveandmorecostlyconcretegravitystructurehasbeenusedasthebasisofthe1978costestimate.;"Inthisway,sufficientcostisincludedintheestimatetoallowcon-structionofeithertheconcretethinarchiffavorablesiteconditionsarefoundduringpreconstructionplanningorthe.concretegravity.structureiflessfavorableconditionsarefoundtoexist.Thus,economicfeasibilityhasbeenpresentedusingthemostconservativesetofconditions.InadditiontothemoreconservativegravitydesignatDevilCanyon,normalcontingencyfactorswerealsoapplied.ThetotalcontingenciesfortheDevilCanyongravitydamestimateareabout$121millionor17percentoftotalconstructioncosts.Withthe1978estimatesofSusitnaprojectbenefitsandcosts,a68percentcontingencyfactorwouldberequiredtohavecostsexceedbenefitsunderthebasecasesetofassumptions.TheSnettishamHydroelectricProjectthatprovidespowertotheJuneauareawasmentionedbyOMSasanexampleofcostoverruns.Thereported36percentcostincreaseoveroriginalestimatesisnot21 entirelycorrectsincethe36percentfactorincludedadditionalcon-structionnotcontemplatedintheoriginalcostestimate.TheoriginalestimatewasforaprojectthatincludedonlytheLongLakephaseofdevelopmentwithassociatedcampfacilitiesandtransmissionsystem.TheplannedCraterLakephaseofdevelopmentwasaddedinfiscalyear1973,butconstructionhasbeendeferred.Theactualcostoverrunasof1978is22percent.Morethanhalfofthis22percentoverrunfromoriginalcostestimateswasaccountedforbythetemporaryrepairsandsubsequentpermanentrelocationofafailedportionofthetransmissionline.Environmentalconsiderationshaddictateditsoriginallocationinanareaofextremewindsandiceconditionsnotpreviouslyencoun-teredonanytransmissionlineinNorthAmerica.22 AREAREDEVELOPMENTBENEFITSOMBCOMMENTThesebenefitsareacorrectionfortheuseofother-wiseunemployedlaborduringconstruction.Thoughstandardprocedurespermitthisbenefitcategoryforpowerprojects,itwouldseemthatsuchbenefitsshouldnotbeacceptedintheSusitnareportbecauseprivatedevelopmentforpowerpurposeswouldproduceequivalentbenefits.AnevaluationofthevalidityoftheuseofARAbenefitsintheSusitnareportshouldbemade.Projectcostsareconsideredtobeanadverseeffectonthenationaleconomybecauseresourcesrequiredforconstructionwouldnormallybedivertedfromotheruses.Thevalueofresourcesintheiralternativeusesisthereforethetrueeconomiccostoftheproject.Ifsomeresourcesusedintheproposedplanwouldotherwisebeunemployed,theseresourceswouldnotbedivertedfromproductionofothergoodsandservicesand,hence,arenotaneconomiccosttothenationaleconomy.Procedurally,thecreditforusingunemployedlaboriscon-ventionallytabulatedasanadditiontobenefitsratherthanadeductionfromcosts.Thebasisfordeterminationofemploymentbenefitsaswithbenefitsassociatedwithallotherprojectpurposes,isacomparisonofcondi-.tionswithandwithoutaplantoprovidetheplanningobjective.Thewithconditionistheplanunderconsideration,namelytheprovisionofadditionalpower.Thewithoutconditioniswithoutprovisionof23 additionalpower.Therelevantwithoutconditionforpurposesofbenefitevaluationisnotanalternativesolutiontotheplanningobjec-tiveeventhoughintheabsenceoftherecorrmendedproject,analter-nativewillbeprovided.Therefore,theentireapplicableemploymentbenefitis,creditedtoeachprojectconsideredintheplanformulationprocess.If,alternatively,wagepaymentsofotherwiseunemployedlaboriscreditedasasavingsineconomiccosts,itisevenmoreapparentthatsuchwagepaymentswouldbefullydeductiblefromcostsofany andallprojectsconstructed.24 CONSTRUCTIONSCHEDULEOMBCOMMENTThell~yearconstructionschedulefortheWatanaproject,basedonpreliminaryinspectionofcomparableprojects,appearstobeontheshortside~Alongerscheduleof14yearsappearsmorereasonablebecauseof(1)normalslippagesand(2)a3-yearpeakcon-structionschedulethatcallsformoreworktobeputinplaceonasinglesitethantheCorpshaseveraccomplishedinsimilartimeperiods.ThisshouldbereexaminedanditseffectsontheprojectBICratiocalculated.GENERALTheconstructionschedulehasbeenreanalyzedandlengthenedfrom10to14years.TheWatanadamandpowerp1antwi11take10yearstoconstruct,anincreaseof4yearsoverthepreviousschedule.TheDevilCanyonprojectconstructionwillrequire8yearsratherthanthepreviouslyestimated5years.Therewillbe4yearsofconcurrentconstructiontomeetpower-on-linedates.DIVERSIONPLANSThetimeforWatanadiversionworksconstructionandstreamdiver-sionhasbeenextendedto3yearsfromthepreviouslyestimated2years,becausetheconstructionaccesstothetunnelportalsrequiresextensiverockcutsandaddedtime.ThestartofconstructionofthediversionworksfortheDevilCanyondamhasbeendelayedfromthe5thtothe7thyearofWatanaconstructionbecauseitisdependentonstreamregulationbytheupstreamWatanadam.2S MAINDAMSFoundationpreparationatWatanawouldbedelayedtothe4thyearasaresultoftheextendeddiversionrequirementswhichwoulddelaythestartofcofferdamconstruction.Watanaembankmentconstruction,scheduledtobegininthe5thyearandcontinueintothe10th,wouldrequire6yearsinsteadofthepreviouslyestimated3years,basedonconstructionseasonsof5monthswithaveragedailyplacementratesof80,000cubicyards.Waterimpoundmentwouldstartinthe8thyearwithpower-on-1ineinOctoberofthe10thyear.Thereservoirfillingwouldcontinuebeyondthepower-on-1inedateandwoulddependontheratesofinflowandpowergeneration.FoundationpreparationforDevilCanyondamwouldstartinthe9thyear,a 2yeardelayfromtheearlierestimate.Concreteplacementanddamcompletionwouldbegininthe10thyearandrequire5years,~nincreaseof2yearsovertheearlierschedule.Impoundmentwouldcommenceinthe13thyearandendwithafullreservoirinOctoberofthe14thyear.EFFECTOFDELAYThepresentlyscheduledpower-on-1inedatesare1994forWatanaand1998forDevilCanyon.Thesewerepreviouslyscheduledfor1986and1990respectively.ThesedatesincludetheresultofthechangesinassumedcongressionalconstructionauthorizationfromJuly1980toOctober1984andtherevisedconstructionschedule.Transmissionlineconstructioncouldbecompletedin1991,permittingconnection26 oftheAnchorageandFairbanksloadcentersinadvanceofWatanapower-on-line.Theeconomicevaluationisbasedonthislongerl4-yearcon-structionscheduleandthedelayedpower-on-l'inedates.Evenwiththelonger14-yearconstructionperiod,additionalcon-structiondelaysarepossible.Theimpacts,however,wouldbeminimizedbytherecommendedtwo-stageconstructionsequence.IfsignificantdelayswereexperiencedonWatana,thestartandscheduleofDevilCanyonconstructioncouldbeadjustedwithminimalcostimpact.DelaysinDevilCanyonconstructionwouldhavenoeffectonWatana'sschedule.Theproject'seconomicjustificationhasbeenanalyzedtoassess,theimpactofconstructiondelaysthatwouldextendthepower-on-linedates.Asanexample,a2-yeardelayinWatanacompletionwasevaluated.Theprimaryeffectonprojectcostwou1dbetheaccumulationofaddi-tionalinterestduringconstruction.The2-yeardelayincreasesaverageannualcostsbyabout$17million.ThedelayofWatanapower-on-linewouldalsoaffectprojectbenefits,althoughthechangewouldbesmall.TheimpactonbenefitsisduetothemixandscheduleofthermalplantscomingonlinepriortoWatanaandtotherateofloadgrowthduringtheyearsafterpower-on-line.Fora2-yeardelay,equivalentaverageannualpowerbenefitswouldbereducedabout$4million.Thenetchangeinprojecteconomicswouldbeanincreaseintotalannualcoststo$245millionandareductioninannualbenefitsto$320million.Thisdecreasesthebenefit-costratiofrom1.42to1.31.27 Analysisshowsthattheconstructionperiodwouldhavetobeprolongedatleastanextra9yearsbefore.theSusitnaprojectwouldbecomeuneconomic.28 SUPPLYESTIMATESOMSCOMMENTTheanalysisofthewithoutprojectconditionneedstobeexpandedconsiderablytoclearlyanalyzethefollowing:a.Why,withnaturalgasprojectedtobeinsuchshortsupply,theAnchorageutilitieshaveonlycon-tractedfor55percentofprovedreservesor25percentofestimatedultimatereserves.b.Thesensitivityoftheanalysistothecollapse,ofOPECandthecostofshippingoiltotheeastcoast.c.ThenecessityforanAnchorage-Fairbanksinter-tieatacostof$200-300million.d.Schedulingofpowerplantsandthereducedriskofbuildingsmallincrements.INTRODUCTIONThefirsttwoitemsmustbeconsideredintermsofnationalenergypolicy.TheUnitedStatesneedstoreducedependencyonoilimportsonbothashort-termandalong-termbasisandtoaccomplishamajorshiftawayfromoilandnaturalgastoalternativeenergysources.Thereasonsforthisincludenationaleconomicconsiderations,aswellasveryreallimitsonnationalandworldsuppliesofoilandnaturalgas.Intermsofnationalenergypolicy,oilandnaturalgasarenotavailablealternativesforlong-termproductionofelectricpower.Thereareremainingquestionsastohowquicklyexistinguseswillbephasedoutandonhowcompletetheprohibitionswillbeonnewoilandnaturalgas-f.iredpowerplants.29 Thereisgeneralagreementthatimplementationofnationalpolicymustincludestrongeffortsinconservation,substantialincreaseinuseofcoal,andmajoreffortstodeveloprenewableenergysources.Eachofthesecomponentsissensitivetoenergypriceandsupplyvariables.Areductioninworldoilpricesoraperiodofoversupplyservesasamarketplacedisincentiveforconservationeffortsandworkonalternativeenergysources.Thelowestcostalternativesandthosewithfullyproventechnologyaretheleastsensitive;thosethatdependonfurtherresearchanddevelopmentaremosteasilysidetracked.TheSusitnaprojectinvolveslargeblocksofpowerandnewenergyfromarenewablesource,fullyproventechnology,longrevenue-producingperiod(inexcessof100years),andessentialfreedomfromlong-termpriceincreases.Itspowercostsappearattractiveincomparisontocoal-firedpowerplants.Itisatwo-stageprojectwithopportunitytodeferthesecondstageifdemandsarelowerthanpresentestimatesorifpricerelationshipschange.TheabovefactorssuggestthattheSusitnaprojectismuchlesssensitivetoshort-termoilpriceandsupplyvariationsthanmostotherU.S.energyoptions.IfitisassumedthatAlaskanoilandnaturalgaswillbeisolatedfromU.S.andworlddemandandpricing,Alaskawouldprobablycontinuetouseitsoilandgasformostofitspower.Thisassumptiondid,infact,prevailbetweentheinitialoilandgasdiscoveriesinthe30 CookInletareaandthe1973oilembargo.In1960,theAnchorage-CookInletpowersuppliescamealmostentirelyfromcoalandhydro.Thelowcost,abundantgasbroughtahalttohydrodevelopmentandde-stroyedthearea'scoalindustry.TheoneremainingAlaskancoalminebarelysurvivedthe1960'sbecauseofcompetitionfromrelativelycheapoil.CookInletgashasbeensubjectedtoincreasingcompetitioninthelastfewyears,includingproposalsforLNGfacilities,additionalpetrochemicalplants,andconsiderationofpipelinealternativestotieinwiththeAlcanpipelineproject.Thecompetitionresultedinincreasingpricesandincreasingdifficultyinobtaininglong-termcnmmitmentsof~asforpower.Thecompetitionsandthepriceincreasesareexpectedtocontinue.TherealquestionongasavailabilityasitpertainstotheSusitnaprojectis:whatistheoutiookforlong-termgassuppliesforpowerafter19901Theansweristhattheoutlookisnotgoodintermsofcompetingusesandnationalpolicy.NATURALGASAVAILABILITYTheprimaryreasonfornotconsideringnaturalgas-firedgenerationasthealternativetoSusitnahydropowerdevelopmentisnotgasavail-ability,butnationalenergypolicy.ThePowerplantandIndustrialFuelUseBilloftheNationalEnergyActof1978clearlyindicatesthattheintentoftheAdministrationandCongressistostronglydiscouragetheuseofnaturalgasforelectricalgeneration.Thelaw3169-7380 -80- 3 containsaprohibitionagainsttheuseofnaturalgasasaprimaryfuelinanynewlyconstructedutilitygenerationfacility.Permanentexemptionsfromthisprohibitionforanewbaseloadpowerp1antmaybeobtainedundercertaincircumstances.TheDepartmentofEnergy'sdraftimplementingregulationsperrriitexemptionsifutilitiescanproveitwouldbeoverlycostly,environmentallyunsound,orimpossiblebecauseofinsufficientorunavai1a,b1esuppliesofcoalorotherfuelsattheplant'slocation.NoneoftheseexemptionsappearapplicabletoAlaska.TheFederalEnergyRegulatoryCommission,innotprovidinggas-firedgenerationcosts,agreeswiththatassessment.Whilenationalenergypolicyisreasonenoughtodiscountn,atura1gas-firedgenerationasalong-termalternativetoamajorhydropowerproject,dataonthelocalsuppliesofnaturalgaswaspresentedinthe1976reportasadditionalevidence.Thatdatahasbeenupdatedusing1978information.Thereareanestimated4,428billioncubicfeet(BCF)ofrecoverablegasreservesinCookInlet,withanadditionalspeculativepotentialoffrom6to29trillioncubicfeet.Approximately3,698BCF,or84per-centoftheestimatedrecoverablereservesarepresentlycommittedtoAlaskanandexportuses.Theproportionofcommittmentswouldevenbehigherbutforanunwillingnessonthepartofnaturalgasownerstoenterintocontractsfortheprovisionofgasduringaperiodofrapidlyescalatinggaspricesandgreatuncertaintyregardinggaspricederegu-lation.Addi:tionalcommittmentsareanticipatedasthepricingstructurestabilizes.32 In1976.34percentofAlaska'stotalenergyconsumptionwaspro-videdbyCookInletnaturalgas.Severalforecastsofgasdemandhavebeencompleted.andestimatedprovenCookInletgasreservesareinade-quatetomeettherequirementsinallforecastedcases.Thedeficitthroughtheyear2000variesfromalowof783BCFtoahighof3,804BCF,dependingontheforecasteduse.TheuseofCookInletgasfornewgas-firedelectricalgenerationafter1985wouldincreasetheyear2000deficitbyabout532BCF.OILPRICECHANGEIMPACTSTheeconomicjustificationfortheSusitnahydropowerprojectissensitivetochangesinthepriceofoilonlyifoil-firedgenerationisconsideredarealisticlong-termalternativeforelectricalgenerationintherailbeltarea.However.theuseofoilinbenefitdeterminationfor100yearsofpowerforamajornewhydroprojectdoesnotseemappropriateinlightofnationalenergypolicyingeneralandtheNationalEnergyActof1978inparticular.Asinthecaseofnaturalgas.theuseofoilinnewlyconstructedgenerationfacilitiesispro-hibitedwith·1imitedexception.Theexemptionscontainedinthelegis-lationdonotappearpertinentinthefaceofthelargesuppliesofcoalandhydropowerpotentialavailabletotherailbeltarea.,Despitethestrongargumentsagainstnewoil-firedgenerationinthemid-1990'sqndbeyond,projectjustificationwasexaminedusingan,oil-firedpowerplantasthebasisofbenefitcalculation.Oil-firedcostsprovidedbyFERtwereusedintheanalysis,andthemidrangeload33 forecastwasassumed.Withstableprices,theproject'sannualpowerbenefitsfall$78millionfromthe$289millioncalculatedonthebasisofthecoal-firedalternative.Netbenefitsbecome$18million,givingabenefit-costratioof1.08.Tocalculatetheimpactofrelativechangesin~hepriceofoilonprojectfeasibility,threesamplecaseswereanalyzed.First,thereisanassumptionthatfuelcostsesclateat2percentperyearbetween1978andthe30thyearbeyondpower-on-line,afterwhichthereisnoadditionalescalation.The3D-yearperiodcorrespondstotheservicelifeoftheinitialthermalplant.The2percentrateisselectedasrepresentativeoflong-termrealpriceincreasesarisingfromdepletingmoredistantsources,increasingenvironmentalsafeguardsinextra-ction,processingandhandling,andanticipatedproducingnationpricingpolicy.Twopercentannualescalationinthepriceofoilresultsina57percentincreaseinannualpowerbenefitsoverthatwithstableprices;thebenefit-costratiobecomes1.60.Thesecondcaselooksatthepossibilityofnopriceescalationpriortopower-on-linefollowedbya3D-yearperiodof2percentannualescalation.Thiscaseisdesignedtoreflectthepossibilityofanear-termsofteningofthemarketforoilduetoslackeningdemandorincreasedsupplyintheshort-term.Withstablepricesintheneartermfollowedbya3D-yearperiodofescalation,annualpowerbenefitsincrease22percentoverthestablepricecase,givingabenefit-costratioof1.29.34 Thefinalcaseexplorestheimpactofrealoilpricedecli~espriortopower-on-line.Animmediatesharpdropinpriceisassumed,withnochangeinpricethereafter.ThisscenarioisincludedtoshowthepossibleeffectonprojectjustificationofabreakupoftheOPECcartel.Theimmediatedeclineinoilpricesfollowedbystablepricesresultsincostsexceedingbenefitsandabenefit-~ostratioof0.85.Tosummarize,oil-firedgenerationisnotanappropraitelong-termalternativetoSusitnahydropower.If,nonetheless,oil-firedcosts areusedinbenefitcalculation,theprojectremainseconomicallyjustifiedexceptintheextremecaseofanimmediateandprecipitousdropinthepriceofoi1.IOMBsuggestedthattheissueofshippingcostsbeexplored.TheFERCfuelcostestimatethatwasusedinthebenefitcalculationisnetoftransportationcostsbetweenAlaskaandcontinentalU.S.ports.ThefuelcostsusedaretheestimatedcostofprocessedAlaskanoilatthepower-plant.NoadditionalconsiderationofshippingcoststotheEastCoastisdeemednecessary.ANCHORAGE-FAIRBANKSINTERTIE-Theestimatedconstructioncost(1978dollars)forthetransmissionlinesassociatedwiththeSusitnaprojectis$338million.TheportionfromtheSusitnaprojecttoFairbanksaccountsfor$152millionofthetotal.Thereareseveralpreviousstudiesthatdemonstrateinherentfeasi-bilityofanAnchorage-Fairbanksintertiewi'thorwithoutconstruction35 36 COMPARISONOFPOWERCOSTSFORYEAR2000(¢/kWh-0%inflation)AnchorageFairbanksHigh·MediumLowHighMediumLowCase16.26.67.18.88.99.2Case26.16.26.28.08.4 8.8Case35.85.56.16.26.77.8Followingarethepercentsavingsintotalsystemcostsbetween1990~and2011forCases2and3comparedtoCase1,underthemidrange-",i':";~.tloadforecast.Case2Case3Anchorage-0.4-10.7Fairbanks-7.9-28.1Total':"1.4-14.1..•.:POWERPLANTSCHEDULINGANDRISKREDUCTIONTherisks"associatedwiththeoverbuildingofpowerplantsisgen-erallyreducedbybuildingsmallincrementaladditionstoasystem.Inotherwords,asclos~lyaspossible,loadgrowthshouldbematchedasitoccurs.ThevalidityofthisgeneralizationincreasesasthedegreeofconfidenceOrce~taintyinloadgrowthforecastsdecreases.'Thisriskminimizationisaccompaniedbyanincreaseineconomiccosts,however,sinceeconomiesofscaleareasignificantfactorinpower-requiredfortheirrea~izationwasdeveloped.!.!"sideredmostlikelywerereviewedtoformamostprobablefuture37 condition.Therefore,theloadforecastusedrepresentedahighdegreeofconfidencebythecrosssectionofdisciplinesandagencieswhodevelopedit.TheevaluationfurtherrecognizedtheprincipleofloadgrowthmatchingwhendeterminingthemostlikelyalternativethermalplantintheabsenceofSusitnahydropower.AlternativethermalplantswerephasedintomatchtheportionofloaddemandprovidedfromSusitna.Fortheinitialyearsthismeansthatonlyannualincreasesdue~onewloadwereevaluated.Asafurtherconfirmation,ananalysisofhydropoweralternativesindicatesthateconomicalsitesarenotavailableinsufficientquantitytobecomparabletoSusitna.Smallindividualsitesmight:beavailable,buttheywouldsatisfyonlyasmallportionofthemarketareademand.Othersiteswithapparentlyacceptablepowerandeconomiccapabilityhavebeenorwillbeprecludedbylandstatusdesignation.ThisfindingwassupportedbyAlaskaPowerA~ministration's1978draftreportonAnalysisofPotentialAlternativeHydroelectricSitestoServeRailbe1tAreaandbytheCorpsofEngineers'ReviewofSouth-centralAlaskaHydropowerPotentialcompletedinJanuary1979. DEMANDESTIMATESOMSCOMMENTTheanalysisofloadgrowthshouldbemorespecificwithrespectto:a.Increasingusebyconsumers;andsb.Increasingnumberofconsumers.c.Industrialgrowth.i.e.swheredoesAlaska'scomparativeadvantagelieoutsidetheareaofrawmaterialsandgovernmentfunctions?FORECASTMETHODOLOGYInordertoexplorethecausativefactorsofloadgrowthingreaterdetailsthemethodofforecastinghasbeenchangedincertainrespectsfromthatwhichwasusedinthe1976InterimFeasibilityReport.TheAlaskaPowerAdministration(APA)hasusedasimplifiedend-usemodeltoforecastfuturepowerrequirementssaugmentedbytrendanalysisandaneconometricmodel.Totalpowerdemandhasbeencategorizedintothreeprimaryenduses:theresidential/commercial/industrialloadssuppliedbyelectricutilitiessthenationaldefenseinstallationsectorsandtheself-suppliedindustrialcomponent.Thosefactorsineachcategorythatbestexplainhistoricaltrendsinenergyusewereidentified.Intheutilitysectorsthoseexplanatoryvariablesarepopulationandpercapitause.Populationwasforecastedwiththehelpofacommitteeofexpertsusingaregionaleconometric39 model,whilepercapitauseestimatesareanextrapolationofpasttrendsadjustedtoaccountforanticipateddeparturesfromthosetrends.Nationaldefenseneedsareassumedtodependonthel~velofmilitaryactivityandthenumberofmilitarypersonnelinthestudyarea.Futureself-suppliedindustrialpowerrequirementsarebasedonexplicitassump-tionsregardingfutureeconomicdevelopmentandtheenergyneedsassocia-tedwithsuchdevelopment.POPULATIONANDECONOMICACTIVITYFORECASTThemostimportantsectorintermsofmagnitudeofelectricalenergyuseistheutilitysector,andpopulationisthekeyfactorinthissector'sfuturepowerrequirements.Populationforecastsinturn,arehighlydependentuponassumptionsoffutureeconomicactivity.Economicactivityassumptionsarealsoimportantbecausetheyhaveadirectimpactonenergyrequirementsintheself-suppliedindustrialsector.Thepopulationandeconomicactivityassumptionsusedinthisfore-castarebasedonadraftreportoftheEconomicsTaskForce,South-centralAlaskaWaterResourcesStudy,datedSeptember18,1978.Thereportisentitled,"SouthcentralAlaska'sEconomyandPopulation,1965-2025:ABaseStudyandProjection."Thereportwasajointeffortofeconomists,planners,andagencyexpertswhoweremembersoftheEconomicsTaskForceoftheSouthcentralAlaskaWaterResourcesStudy(LevelB).ItisbeingconductedbytheAlaskaWaterStudyCommittee,ajointcommitteeofFederalandStateagencies,theAlaskaFederationofNatives,theAlaskaMunicipalLeague,40 theMunicipalityofAnchoragettheSouthcentralregionboroughgovern-ments~andregionalNativecorporations.Theprojectionsreportedreliedontwolong-runeconometricmodelsdevisedbyeconomistsfromtheUniversityofAlaskaInstituteofSocialandEconomicResearch(ISER)andfromtheMIT-HarvardJointCenterforUrbanStudieswithfundingbytheNationalScienceFoundation'sManintheArcticProgram(MAP).Thetwospecificmodels.usedhereweremodificationsoftheAlaskaStateandregionalmodelsdevelopedunderthatprogram.Themodelsproducedestimatesofgrossoutputtemploy-menttincometandpopulationforthe years1975-2000.Populationandemploymentweredisaggregatedandextrapolatedtotheyear2025byISERresearchersunderEconomicsTaskForcedirectiontandusingTaskForceconcensusmethodology.ThedatarequiredtorunthemodelwereprovidedbyvariousmembersoftheEconomicsTaskForce.AssumptionswerereviewedbytheTaskForcetandthemodeloutputsandtentative.projectionswerereviewedforinternalconsistencyandplausibilitybyISERresearchersandbytheTaskForce.Theuseoftheeconometricmodelrequiresasetofassumptionsrelatedtothelevelandtimingofdevelopment.Theassumptionspri-marilyconsistoftimeseriesonemploymentandoutputincertainoftheexport-base.industriesandingovernment.FORECASTRESULTSTheLevelBpopulationforecastfortheAnchorage-CookInletsub-regionwasadoptedbyAPAforestimatingpowerrequirementswithout41 anymodification.APAappli~dprojectedstatewidegrowthratestotheFairbanks-TananaValleyareatodeveloppopulationforecastsforthatregion.Actualpopulationgrowthwilllikelyfallwithinthelimitsestablishedbythehighandlowforecasts.UTILITYSECTORThemidrangenetgenerationforecastfrom1977to1980wasbasedontheaverageannualgrowthratebetween1973and1977.Thisratewasadjustedupwardanddownwardby20percenttoestablishthe1980highandlowforecastsrespectively.Beyond1980,thehighandlowcasenetgenerationisestimatedbymultiplyingforecastedpopulationbypro-jectedpercapitause.Between1973and1977,percapitauseofelec-tricitygrewatanannualrateof3.8percentinAnchorageand9.4percentinFairbanks.ThelowerAnchoragegrowthratewasadoptedasthebasisofthepercapitausetrend.Increasingelectrificationisassumedtobepartlyoffsetbyincreasingeffectivenessofconservationprograms,resultinginagraduallyslowerrateofgrowthinpercapitause.Asacheckonthevalidityofthepercapitauseprojections,acomparisonwasmadewithtworegionsofthePacificNorthwest.Theregionswereselectedforcomparisononthebasisoftheirsimilarityinpopulationandcommercial/industrialcharacteristicstotherail-beltarea.ThePacificNorthwestregions'presentpercapitauseratesofelectricalpoweraresignificantlyhigherthanthoseoftherail-beltarea.Infact,thecurrentratesinthePacificNorthwestare42 comparabletothosethatareprojectedfortherailbeltareain1990.Withoutdoubt,Alaskaexhibitsaconsiderablepotentialforincreasedelectrification.Withthehighandlowpopulationforecastsandwithhigh,mid,andlowpercapitauseassumptions,sixdifferentnetgenerationforecastswerecalculated.Fromthese,thehighpopulation-highenergyuseandthelowpopulation-lowenergyusecombinationswereusedforthehighandlowrangenetgenerationforecasts.Themidrangeutil·itysectorforecastcamefromaveragingthehighpopulation-lowenergyuseandthelowpopulation-highenergyuseforecasts.Peakloadforecastswerecalculatedfromprojectednetgenerationusinga50percentloadfactor.Forthelowrangeforecast,utilitysectorpeakloadrequirementsareexpectedtoincreasefrom667mega-watts(MW)in1980to1,617MWintheyear2000.Fifty-onepercentOfthatincreaseisduesimplytopopulationgrowth,whiletheremainderoftheincreaseisaresultofincreasedpercapitause.Thecompara--bleincreaseinforecastedpeakloadrequirementsbetween1980and2000for..thehighrangeforecastis3,087MW.Inthiscase,populationgrowthaccountsfor43percentoftheincrease,withtheremainderaccountedforbychangesinpercapitause.NATIONALDEFENSESECTORTheforecastforthisrelativelyminorsectorisbasedonhistoricaldatafromArmyandAirForceinstallationsintherailbeltarea.Zerogrowthisassumedforthemidrangeforecast.Forthehighrange,growthat1percentperyearisassumed,whilethelowrangeforecastisbasedonadeclineof1percentannually.43 SELF-SUPPLIEDINDUSTRIESSECTORThiscategoryofloadiscomprisedofthoseexistingindustriesthatgeneratetheirownpower,alongwithallsimilartypefacilitiesexpectedtobeconstructedinthefuture.Itislikelythatsuchindustrieswouldpurchasepowerandenergyifavailableatreasonablecost.ThespecificassumptionsforthissectorarebasedonBatte11e!sMarch1978reportentitledAlaskanElectricPower,AnAnalysisofFutureRequirementsandSupplyAlternativesfortheRai1be1tRegion.Thehighrangedevelopmentforecast,inc1udes'enlargementofexistingfacilitiesaswellasnewindustry.ThenewdevelopmentsincludeanLNGplant,refinery,coalgasificationplant,miningandmineralprocessingplants,timberindustry,capitalcity,andsomelargeenergyintensiveindustry.ThissetofassumptionscoincideswiththeLevelBStudyTaskForcehighcasedevelopmentassumptionswithtwoexcep-tions.CoalgasificationandanenergyintensiveindustrywereincludedbyAPAbecauseinformedjudgementindicatestheirdefinitepotential.Theirimpactonpopulationandeconomicactivityisrelativelyminorbuttheireffectonpeakloadrequirementscouldbesubstantial.There-fore,theyhavebothbeenincludedinthedevelopmentassumptionsforthehighrangeforecast.Themidrangeforecastisthesameasthehighrangeexceptthatthelargeenergyintensiveindustry(aluminiumsmelter)isexcluded.TheTowrangefurtherexcludesthenewcapitalcity.Thereisalsosomereductionofpeakloadrequirementsofthemidandlowrangecases.44 Alaskaisnotaheavilyindustrializedstatenorisitexpectedtobe.Theoiland.gasi.ndustryispresentlythedominatingsectoroftheState'sGNPandwillcontinuetobesoforatleastthebalanceofthe20thcentury.ThisistheprinciplesourceofrevenuesfortheStateandthusthedrivingforcebehindstateprogramsforeducation,localgovernmentassistance,welfare,andsoon.Otherimportantindustriesarefisheries,forestproducts,andrecreation-tourism.Thelowandmid-rangepopulationestimatesincorporateverymodestassumptionsofindustrialexpansionbasedonpioneeringofAlaskannaturalresourcesforthemostpart;thespecificindustrial·assumptionsreflectprovensourcesofnaturalresourcesandprojectsthatarewellalongintheplanningstages.ExtractionandprocessingofnaturalresourceswillundoubtedlycontinuetobemajoraspectsoftheAlaskaeconomy.OtherimportantaspectsincludebusinessactivitiesofNativeCorporationsandincreas-ingamountoflandmadeavailabletoStateandprivateownership;ActionspendingonthenewNationalParks,Refuges,.andWildandScenicRiverswillencouragefurtherdevelopmentoftherecreationandtourismindustries•.Asinmostpartsofthecountry,Alaskaemploymentisnotdominatedbytheindustrialsectors.Mostjobsareinserviceindustries,co~ercialestablishments,transportation,utilities,andgovernment.Thenewpopu.lationestimatebyISERindicatesthatthedistributionofemploymentwillnotchangeappreciably.Theanticipatedgrowthintheeconomy,employment,andinpowerdemandsisprimarilyinthenon-industrialsectors.45 Itshouldbenotedthattherailbeltareademandsforelectricenergyin1977were2.7billionkilowatt-hours,whichisapproachingthefirmenergycapabilityoftheWatanaproject.TheloadresourceanalysesdemonstratefullutilizationofWatanaenergyessentiallyassoonasitbecomesavailable,evenunderthelowerpowerdemandcase.ThisbasicallyleadstoafindingthattheupperSusitnajustificationisnotdependent~nmajorindustrialexpansioninAlaska.46 SENSITIVITYANALYSISOMBCOMMENTPowerdemandshouldbesubjectedtoasensitivityanalysistobetterassesstheuncertaintiesindevelop-mentofsuchalargeblockofpower.Thetypicalutilityinvestsonthebasisofan8-10yeartimehorizon.TheSusitnaplanhasan11-16yearhorizoninfaceofrisksthatloadsmaynotdevelopandtheoptionofwheelingpowertoothermarketsisnotavailable.ItshouldbenotedthatthepowerdemandforSnettishamwasundulyoptimisticwhenitwasbuilt.Thisresultedindelaysininstallinggenerators.AsimilarerrorinaprojectthesizeofSusitnawouldbemuchmorecostlyandwouldhaveamajoradverseeffectontheproject'seconomics.INTRODUCTIONThenewpowerdemandestimatesandload/resource,economic,andfinancialanalysespresentedinthisreportallprovideabetterbasisforexaminingthesequestions.Inaddition,thereisneedtoreviewsomeoftheSnettishamprojecthistorytobringoutsimilaritiesanddifferenceswiththeupperSusitnacase.SNETTISHAMREVIEWTheSnettishamHydroelectricProjectislocatednearJuneau,AlaskaandisnowthemainsourceofpowerforthegreaterJuneauarea.Theprojectwasauthorizedin1962onthebasisoffeasibilityinves-tigationsbytheBureauofReClamation,constructedbytheCorpsofEngineers,andoperatedbytheAlaskaPowerAdministration.Theprojectwasconceivedasatwo-stagedevelopmentandconstructionofthefirst,orLongLake,stagewascompletedinlate1973withfirst4769-7380 -80-~ commercialpowertoJuneauinDecember1973.Thesecond,orCraterlake,stagewastobeaddedwhenpowerdemandsdictated.Juneauremainsanisolatedpowermarketarea.DifficultterrainandlongdistancehavethusfarpreventedelectricalinterconnectionwithothersoutheastAlaskacommunitiesandneighboringareasofCanada;however,suc.hinterconnectionsmayprovefeasiblewithinthenext15to20years.Theprojectplanningandjustificationwaspremisedonserviceonlytothe,greaterJuneauarea.TheSnettishamauthorizationwasbasedonpowerdemandestimatesdonein1961bytheAlaskaDistrict,BureauofReclamation(nowAlaskaPowerAdministration).Theestimateswarebasedonactualpowerusethrough1960andprojectionstotheyear1987.The.outlookatthattimewasthatthefirststageconstructionwouldbecompletedin1966andthattotalprojectcapabilitywouldnotbeneededuntil1987.Theactual1977energyloadwas112,197megawatt-hoursor81percentofthe1977est1mat~forecastedin1961onthebasisofhistoricalrecordsthrough1960.Theinherentflexibilityofastagedprojectprovedtobeverybene-ficialinthecaseofSnettisham.APAmadeperiodicupdatesofthepowerdemandestimatesduringconstructionofthelonglakestage.Forseveralyears,theseforecastsindicatedaneedtoproceedwiththeCraterLakestageconstructionimmediatelyoncompletionofthelonglakestage.TheCorpsofEngineersconstructionschedulesandbudgetrequests,basedontheAPApowerdemandestimates,anticipated48 startofconstructiononCraterLakeinFY77.Majorfactorsintheseforecastswereplansforanewpulpmillinthe.JuneauareaandforanironoreminingandreductionfacilityinthevicinityofPortSnettisham.Neitherofthesedevelopmentswereanticipatedatthetimeofauthorization.Bothoftheseresourcedevelopmentsfailedtomaterialize,andthisresultedinasubstantialreductionintheAPApowerdemandestimateandadecisioninlate1975todefertheCraterLakeconstructionstart.ManyotherfactorsinfluencedJuneauareapowerdemandsandutiliza-tionofprojectpower.OfparticularconcernatthemomentisimpactofAlaska'scapitalmoveinitiative.T~iswouldcertainlychangeuseofprojectpower,withthemostlikelyoutcomethatthecommunitywouldmovemorequicklyintoanall-electricmode(spaceheatingandelectricv~hiclesappearparticularlyattractiveinthisarea),andindustrialuseofpowerwouldincreasethrougheconomicdiversification.ThekeypointsoftheSnettishamrevieware:1.Theprojectwasplannedandauthorizedwithintenttohandlegrowthinareapowerrequirementsfora20-yearperiod.2.Theloadforecastsusedasabasisforauthorizationwerereason-ablyaccurate.3.Theactualuseofprojectpowermayturnouttobesubstantiallydifferentthanoriginallyanticipated.4.Theflexibilityofstagedprojectswasusedtogreatadvantage.5.Theoutlookfor:financialviabilityappearsexcellentatthistime.49 IMPLICATIONSFORSUSITNAFirst,thetypicalplanninghorizonforutilityinvestmentsisinexcessof8to10years.Thisisevidencedbyexperiencesdatingfromabo.ut1970onthetimerequiredtoplan,obtainnecessarypermitsorauthorizations,findfinancing,andthenbuildnewpowerplantsandmajortransmissionfacilities.The8.to10yearsisspecificallymuchtooshortfornuclear,coal,orhydroplantsorformajortransmissionlines.A20-yearplanninghorizonismoreappropriatewithcarefulchecksateachstepintheprocessandbusiness-likedecisionstoshiftcon-structionschedulesifconditions(demands)change.TheSnettishamexperienceisverypositiveinthislight.TheSusitnaprojectissimilarinthatprojectinvestmentiskeyedtothreemajorstagesofdevelopment:transmissioninterconnection,Watana,andthenDevilCanyon.ThecommitmentofconstructionfundsforWatanawouldbeneededin1984tohavepower-on-lineby1994.Ifconditionsin1984indicatetheneedtodefertheproject,itshouldbedeferred.Similarly,startofactualconstr.uctiononDevilCanyoncanandshouldbebasedonconditionsthatactuallyprevailatthetimethedecisionismade.ThedegreeofuncertaintyforupperSusitnaisgreaterinonerespectthanwasthecaseforSnettishambecauseofhigherinterestcostsandlargertotalinvestment.Atthesametime,sensitivitytochangeindemandsismuchlessforSusitnabecauseofitslargeanddiversified50 powermarketarea.TherearemanymorewaysthatSusitnaprojectpowercouldbeeffectivelyutilizedintheeventthattraditionalutilitypowermarketsaresmallerthananticipatedatthepresent.Thewholefieldofoilandgasfueldisplacementcouldbeexploredwithemphasisonelectricheatforofficebuildings,electricvehicles,andelectrificationofoilandgaspipelinepumpandcompressorstations.Further,theSusitnaprojectdoesnothaveas~anyuncertainitiesintermsOfenvironmentalquestionsaswouldequivalentpowersuppliesfromcoalornuclearplants.UncertaintiesregardingairqualityareparticularlyrelevantforanylargeAlaskancoal-firedpowerplants.CURRENTEVALUATIONPowerdemandswereestimatedforhigh,medium,andlowcasestoyear2025assuminglogicalvariationsinpopulationandenergyusepercapita.Theprojectionsreflectpercapitaenergyusebasedondetailedstudiesof1970-1977datafromboththeAnchorageandFairbanksareas.Theprojectionsconsideredvariationsinpercapitauserangingfromincreaseduseofelectricityinthehometoanticipatedeffectsofconservation.Theproject'seconomicjustificationwastestedtodetermine,amongotherthings,itsdegreeofsensitivitytovariationsinloadgrowth.Thecircumstancepotentiallymostdamagingtotheeconomicviabilityoftheprojectentailsasuddendecreaseintherateofloadgrowthimmediatelyaftertheprojectiscompleted.Theanalysisindicatedthattheannualrateofloadgrowthwouldhavetofallto0.8percentbeforeprojectcostsexceedbenefits.Thisrateshouldbe51 comparedtotheannualgrowthratesof12.7percentinAnchorageand10.5percentinFairbanksbetween1973and1977andtothelowrangeforecastforthepost-1994periodof4.2percent.Theload/resourceandcostanalysisprovidedsystemcostsforcom-parisonofcasesbothwithandwithouttheSusitnaproject.Theanalysisalsocomparedthepowerdemandstotheresourcesrequiredtodeterminesizesandtimingofnewplants.Evenunderthemostconservativeloadgrowthcondition,1,500MWisneededtomeetthecontinuedAnchorage-Fairbanksdemandsduringthe1990's;thisisroughlythecapabilityoftheSusitnaproject.Costofsystempowerestimatesindicatethat,inthemediumcasefortheyear2000,Anchoragecostsare5.5¢/kWhor17percentlessthanwithoutSusitna.ForFairbanksthedifferenceismuchlarger,6.7¢/kWhor25percentlessthanwithoutSusitna.ExaminationofthesystemcostonanannualbasisrevealsthecaseIIwithllSusitnaischeaperthantheIIwithoutllSusitnacaseforeachyearexceptthefirstfewyearsafterWatanacomesonline.Itshouldbenotedthatinthelowenergyusecasethetotalsystemcostfortherailbeltareaduringtheperiodfrom1990to2011amountsto$1.1millionlesswithSusitnathanwithouttheproject.Thedifferenceisevenlargerinthemediumandhighcases.ThecombinedAnchorage-Fairbankscashsavingsforthesameperiodbasedonthemediumpoweruseestimateisover$2billion.52 I I'-I~""~.I i 1'R,t ,1;-1 1 -tau ,.... ~~rrl=Fl ...~::;r··i~ UPPER SUSITNA RIVER PROFILE RIVER MILES 120-290 PLATE I FEBRUARY 1979 "'LASKA ~SnllCT,COltl"S Of E"IGIHEEI'lS &HC_A(;[••~.So<. UPPER SUSITNA RIVER BASIN SELECTED 2 DAM PLAN GENER,AL PLAN SOUTHCENTRAL RAILBELT AREA.ALASKA SUPPLEMENTAL FEASIBILITY STUDY \ / \.........r--, ~ ('-/./" ) Loki LOI.Ilu Rood T.G'",H;'~~ ~'-~QOn \ \ l \ <7)----/ ,-./ ,-J _..1 ./=, \ \1 ) I C7<fl~ (-v1 \ )-,-~ /' ,,------- ~~'l..~"---......J '\ '1 I I« ....... \.. p ~~~r;.. o~'i' r ! "-I/-,f '--'-"/\../ -.f o -, \ \ L'-\, 0>"9 , .5''1-'"'-, 6'0 I V-t<\O~( '5')-\ ) / '--"'-,r \ 1 \ l '\ 2QMlIes15 SCALE Q ~-------ro- ..,,,0'-<-~~ <~' «i:t# ~oe.", .~~(.; t lJ1 W 1032·19 Al.UKA OlSl!UCT,CIClM'S Ol"f.HOltClItS 4/IItfClIIIM,.....A$IUo SOUTHCE.NTRAL RNl,8£LT AREA.ALASICA !ilPLOENTAl FEASl8lUTY STUDY UPPER SUSITNA RIVER BASIN WATANA DAMSITE EXPLORATION P\.AN U1 J>, INV.NO.DACW85·PLATE 2 FEBRUARY 1979 PLATE 3 "'L.uK"'Dl5T1'llCT,~'S OIEH(lIN[fI'I5 AIICHQIlAG(,A~UIlA SOUTHCENTRAL RAlLBELT AREA.ALASKA 9.lPPLEMENTAL FEASIBILITY STUDY UPPER SUSITNA RIVER BASIN WATANA DAM DETAIL PLAN z» ~2100 ~ "-,,;,~O()( 2000~ ~i,g'i~~~1600 ~~~::o \600o NOTES: l.TOPOGRAPHIC CONTOURS ARE BASED ON AERIAL PHOTOGRAPHY DATED JO JUNE 1978.VERTICAL DATUM IS MEAN SEA LEVEL (MSU VI VI ROCK fiLL ) -1900 a ~ -IBOO ~ ~ -1100 ~ -1500 -1~OO -1600 -2000 -2200 , 1000 , 1600 , "00 SANDY GRAVEL ~ '-z--'~FFEROAM I]/'(~~E OETAIL A) , 1200 , 1000 12'COARSE FILTER ROCI<FILL COFFERDAM -DETAIL A TYP.EACH SIDE MINIMUM POWER POOL EL.1940 ROCK LINE , 800 ..uU..OAM... /~,~,-2100 "'---ROCK FILL , 600 , 400 , 200 Io DISTANCE IN FEET , 200 , 400 , 600800, 1000 FILTER , 0200..00 COFFERDAM (SEE DETAIL A) TYPICAL SECTION V1 '" 2400- ";00,.00 EXISTING GROUOO. 3200 SOUTHC(NTIUL RAlLeE:LT AREA,ALASt<A SlPPLEMENTAL FEASIBILITY STUDY UPPER SUSITNA RIVER BASIN WATANA DAM SECTIONS 2900 , 2600 ~Pltil~~~lfJTT~~~~~~i'I i DIVERSION TUNNEL •2:.-..--..J 30'DIA 'NOT TO SCALE)# 2400220020001800 DAM CREST EL 2195 1400 1600 DISTANCE IN FEET 1200 _--POWER INTAKE STRUCTURE --ELEVATOR SHAFT 1000800600400 GLACIAL TILL 2300- 1900- 2000- 1400- , 200 m1700- z ~1600- ~ld 1500- 1600-~ ! WATANA DAM AND INTAKE STRUCTURE LOOKING DOWNSTREAM 'to j''i"~". .,.U..CtCal(,"000"0' AL.A5I(A DlSTIlICT,OOftl"S AIICIIOl'l.lllll.A\,.fdI\A FEBRUARY 1979 PLATE A VI 'I '-. '"Co",I JOd 0'100'"~O' ..-....,"_._-'_.. SOUTHCENTRAL R"'LBELT AREA.AlASI(A SUf'PLEMfNTAL FEASIBILITY STUDY UPPER SUSITNA RIVER BASIN DEVIL CANYON DAM CONCRETE GRAVITY DAM DETAIL PLAN "'\.A5l<A IlISTIlICT,COllI"Of'£HGIN[[IlS FEBRUARY 1979 PLATE ~ AXIS OF DAM T II 51'lOCI' IU tUlolr , . TYPICAL NON-OYERFLOW SECTION 0.75,I, Ie-OIA.PENSTOCK SECTION THRU PENSTOCK AND POWER PLANT SCALE:IM'IOd ~-::f~,~TOP~:~fl .... MAX. AXIS OF DAM ~ CREST EL.1412.:5 t'__r.......,.S ....If SPILLWAY SECTION SOUTHCENTRAL RAILBELT AREA.ALASKA SUPPLEMENTAL FEASIBILITY STUDY UPPER SUSITNA RIVER BASIN DEVIL CANYON DAM CONCRETE GRAVITY DAM ELEVATION AND SECTIONS ~fI oM'..'..' ._IULl·r ....·•· DEVIL CANYON AUXiLiARY EARTH FILL DAM FINE FIL.TER "'A:::v~;"':;....7h7fL- PLUG SECTION 400 200 <l fl.1010 LOW lEVEL SLUICES FOR EMERGENCY ORAWDOWN .00 / / ·7 800 / / / IlIllllllilll!!l 26'OIA. \ \ \ Idoo UPSTREAM ELEVATION DEVELOPED ALONG i[OF DAM SCALE:t'•tOO' 1200 flo 833.5 LJ ~·· '"/v'\ ,./~....-\ _//-----_/\,\-----~'-//\\ \,..,,'l fL .1085 \, "-" 1<00 26'DlA.~l~~~~~ ~. / / I TOP OF WAll//:~:J I -f.l.-ill-~~IfL845 c.nco DIVERSON TUNNEL PROFILE SCALE:I .100 ALASI(A OlSTltlCT,COIl'S Of"EN!lIN'EEIIS FEBRUARy 1919 PLATE SECTIONGMARKETABILITYANALYSISDepartmentOfEnergyAlaskaPowerAdministrationP.O,Box50Juneau.Alaska99802ColonelGeorgeR.Rober~sonDistrictEngineerCorpsofEngineersP.O.Box7002Anchorage,Al~ska99510DearColonelRobertson:April2,1979ThisisAlaskaPowerAdministration'snewpowermarketreportfortheUpperSusitnaProject.It'sanupdateofthepreviouspowermarketanalysesprovidedfor.theCorps'1976InterimFeasibilityreport.Thepowermarketreportincludes:anewsetofloadprojectionsfortheRailbeltareathroughyear2025andareviewofalternativesourcesofpower.Load/resourceandtotalpowersystemcostanalyseswerepreparedfordifferentscenariosundervariousassumptionstodetermineeffectsonpowerrates.Undertheassumptionsmadeforthisreport,AlaskaPowerAdministrationdeterminesthattheUpperSusitnaProjectisfeasiblefromapowermarketingstandpoint.Adraftofthisreportwascirculatedtotheareautilitiesandcon-cernedStateofficersforinformalreviewandcomment.Commentshavebeenirtcorporatedandthelettersofcommentsareappended.Sincerely,r_.,I'/C"'/.~{j.'').-.-L.,.'-.r.--______RobertJ.CrossAdministrator59 60CONTENTS687474758383837777798080827013013013013013013113113413713713813813813813914090100100100100100100103103105105122128PAGENO.•••••It......,-."... .....................................................................................................·.,.·.·.·.·.·.·.. ..........................................................................'"'.CapacitySitesofSmallCapacitySites................"..........................................................................,...............-.......................................................................................................................................................................LocationCapacity.Investment~osts••••••FuelCostandAvailabilityCostofPower.ComparativeCostofPower(FERC)••••••••••••••••OilandNaturalGas••••.••••••HydroCriteria.SingleLargeCombinationsSummaryPARTVI-ALTERNATIVE·POWERSOURCES••••••••••••Introduction.AlternativesConsideredCoalPARTV -PO~RREQUIREMENTS•••.••••••••Introduction•.•••••••.•Data••...•....•••..•...AnalysisUtilityNationalDefenseSelf-SuppliedIndustryEnergy&PowerDemandForecastsAssumptionsandMethodologyPopulation••••••UtilityNationalDefenseSelf-SuppliedIndustryEstimateofFutureDemands.••••.•••ComparisonWithOtherForecasts••••••LoadDistribution. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..CapacityRequirements.PARTIV-'EXISTINGPOWERSYSTEMSUtilitySystemsandServiceAreasNationalDefensePowerSystems••••••••••••••••••••••••••IndustrialPowerSystems.......•...•••.•..•....•.•.••...ExistingGenerationCapacity..........•••••••••••••PlannedGenerationCapacity...........•••••••••••••PARTIII-POWERMARKETAREASAnchorage-CookInletFairbanks-TananaValleyPARTII-SUMMARYPARTI -INTRODUCTIONTITLE CONTENTS(Continued)TitlePageNo.NuclearWindGeothermalTideConclusion••••••..:.140140140140141142142142144146146146.............~......".PARTVII-LOAD/RESOURCEANDSYSTEMCOSTANALYSESIntroduction:.BasicDataandAssumptionsStudyMethodology•.•••••.Results.Load/ResourceAnalysesSystemPowerCosts••.•••PARTVIII-INVESTMENTCOSTS153PARTIX-OPERATION,'MAINTENANCE,ANDREPLACEMENTPLANANDCOSTS•••••••••••••••OperationandMaintenancePlanDescription•••••••••••••••MarketingandAdministration••••••••••••••••••••••.••AnnualCosts.Replacements.156156156157157158PARTX~.FINANCIALANALYSISMarketforProjectPowerCost6£Project••....•••..•..•.••.AverageR2:eDeterminationPowerMarketingConsiderations•••••••MarketAspectsofOtherTransmissionAlternatives•.••.••Anchorage-CookInletAreaComparisonofSusitnatoSteamplantsWithandWithoutInflation164164165168169172172173PARTXI-GLENNALLEN-VALDEZAREA•••••••••..••••.••.•••••••Introduction.PowerMarket"Area••••eo••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••PowerRequirements.TransmissionPlanandCost.OperationandMaintenanceCost••••••••••••••••••••••••••AssessmentofFeasibility••••••••••.•••••••.••••.••175175175176177181181APPENDIX1841.LetterdatedJanuary3,1979toCol.DistrictCorpsof.Engineers,transmittingfalling,inAPA'sl3.reaofresponsibility.G.R.Robertson,AlaskaresponsestoOMBquestions61 2.PreviousStudiesandBibliography.3.LOAD/RESOURCEANDSYSTEMCOSTANALYSISFORTHERAILBELTREGIONOFALASKA:1978-2010--InformalReport--byBattellePacificNorthwestLaboratories,Richland,Washington-January,1979.4.Comments.a.FederalEnergyRegulatoryCommission,SanFrancisco,California.b.BattellePacificNorthwestLaboratories,Richland,Washington.c.CorpsofEngineers,Anchorage,Alaskad.TheAlaskaStateClearinghouse,Juneau,Alaskae.MunicipalLightandPower,Anchorage,Alaska62 TABLESNUMBERPAGENO.1.2.RAILBELTAREAGENERATIONCAPACITY_SUMMARY-1977BASICPOWERANDENERGYFORECASTINGDATAANCHORAGE-COOKINLETAREA(INCLUDINGSEWARD)81853.BASICPOWERANDENERGYFORECASTINGDATAFAIRBANKS-TANANAVALLEYAREA••••.•••••••••••••••••••••864.BASICPOWERANDENERGYFORECASTINGDATARAILBELTAREA(ANCHORAGE-COOKINLETANDFAIRBANKS-TANANAVALLEY)••••••••••••••••••••.••••••.••875.NETGENERATION(GWH)ANCHORAGE-COOKINLETAREA•.••..••••••.•••••••••••••••••886.NETGENERATION(GWH)FAIRBANKS-TANANAVALLEYAREA••••..•.••••••••••••••••••897.AVERAGEANNUALUTILITYGROWTHSUMMARY•••••••••••••••••938.POPULATIONESTIMATES1980-2025•••.•.•••••••••••••. •••••1019.NETANNUALPERCAPITAGENERATION(KWH)RAILBELTAREAUTILITIES••.•••••••••••••••••••••••••••••10610.POWERANDENERGYREQUIREMENTS(ANCHORAGE-COOKINLETAREA)••.•••••••••.••••••••••••••10711.POWERAJ.'IDENERGYREQUIREMENTS(FAIRBANKS-TANANAVALLEYAREA)•••.••••.••.•.••••••.•••11012.RAILBELT~APOWERANDENERGYREQUIREMENTSANCHORAGE-COOKINLETAREAANDFAIRBANKS-TANANAVALLEYAREACOMBINED••••••••••••••••.••••••••••••••••••••••••11313.COMPARISONOFUTILITYENERGYESTIMATES,1975MARKETABILITYREPORT,UPDATEOF1975,AND1978AN'ALYSIS••••••.•••.•.••••••••...•..•••••••.••11614.UTILITYENERGYFORECASTS(GWH)ANCHORAGE-COOKINLETAREA•••••••••••••••••••••••••••••11915.UTILITYPEAKDEMANDFORECASTS(MW)ANCHORAGE-COOKINLETAREA••••.•••••••••••••••••.•.••••12016.UTILITYENERGYANDPEAKDEMANDFORECASTSFAIRBANKS-TANANAVALLEYAREA•••••••••••••••.•••••.•••••12163 64FEASIBILITYREPORT170STE.AMPLA.N'TS•••••••••••••••••••••.•• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • ••136166PAGENO.TABLES(Continued)MARKETFORUPPERSUSITNAPOWER(ANCHORAGEANDFAIRBANKSAREAS)MEDIUMLOADGROWTHESTIMATESVALLEYAREAS)••.•.•.••~• . . . . • • • . . • • • . • . • . . . . • • . . . • . • ..148STEAMPLANTS••••••••••••••••••••••••••..•••••.•••••••••132THEYEAR2010••••••••••••••••••••••••••••.•.••••.•••••145REQUIREMENT••...••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••127AREA-0%INFLATION...........•....•.••....•••....•••••15029.REPLACE~NTCOSTS•••"..................................16317.LOADDISTRIBUTIONCHARACTERISTICSMONTHLYPEAKLOADSANDLOADFACTORS••••••.••••••••.•••12618.MONTHLYENERGYREQUIREMENTSASPERCENTOFANNUAL19.COMPARISONOFINVESTMENTCOSTSFORCOAL-FIRED24•AVERAGEPOWERCOSTS-0%INFLATIONFAIR~ANKS-TANANAVALLEYAREA••••••••••••••••••••••••••15127.ANNUALOPERATIONANDMAINTENANCECOSTESTIMATE•'.'•••••15928.OPERATIONANDMAINTENANCECOSTSUMMARy................16222.ANNUALPOWERSYSTEMCOSTS~0%INFLATION(COMBINEDANCHORAGE-COOKINLETANDFAIRBANKS-TANANA32.COSTSUMMARYCOMPARISONWITH1976INTERIM21.SUMMARYOFTHERMALGENERATINGCAPACITYADDITIONSTO26.INVESTMENTCOSTSUMMARY••••••••••••••••••••••.•.•.•••.15525.CONSTRUCTIONCOSTSUMMARy.............................15423.AVERAGEPOWERCOSTSANCHORAGE-COOKINLET30.NUMBER31.INVESTMENTANDOM&RCOSTSUMMARy......................16720.GENERATIONCOSTSFORCONVENTIONALCOAL-FIRED33.AVERAGERATEDETERMINATION(WATANAANDDEVILCANYON)••••.••••••••••••••••••••••••17124a.COMBINEDANCHORAGE-COOKINLETANDFAIRBANKS-TANANAVALLEY-AREAAVERAGEANNUALPOWERCOSTS.••.•.••••••••••152 TABLES(Continued)NUMBER34.HISTORICDATA(GLENNALLEN-VALDEZAREA)..PAGENO.17835.UTILITYNETGENERATION(GWR)(GLENNALLEN-VALDEZAREA)••.•.••••••.•..•.•.•••••••.•••17936.UTILITYFORECASTS(VALDEZ-GLENNALLENAREA)••••••••••••18037.TRANSMISSIONSYSTEMINVESTMENTCOSTSUMMARY(GLENNALLEN-VALDEZAREA)••••••••••••••••••••••••••.•••18I38.TRANSMISSIONSYSTEMOPERATION,MAINTENANCE,ANDREPLACEMENTCOSTSUMMARY(GLENNALLEN-VALDEZAREA)65182 VULEY.AREA.....•.......•..........•..•..•.•..•..•..••97AREA•••.••••••••.•••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••.••••9.4FEATURESITELOCATION••••.•••.•••.••.•••••..•••••.•••••67174125PAGENO.VALLEY••••••••••••••.••••••••••••••••••.•.••••••••••••149LOADDURATIO~CURVE-1977ANCHORAGEAREACOMPARISONOFSUSITNAANDALTERNATIVECOAL-FIREDSTEk~PLANTRATESCONSIDERING5%ANNUALINFLATION66FIGURES10.PEAKLOADFORECASTANCHORAGE-COOKINLETAREA.•••.•••••10911.ENERGYFORECASTFAIRBANKS-TANANAVALLEYAREA..••••••••11112.PEAKLOADFORECASTFAIRBANKS-TANANAVALLEYAREA.•••.••11215.SYSTEMDAILYGENERATIONCURVEANCHORAGEAREA1976.~...12314.TOTALRAILBELTAREAPEAKLOADFO~ECAST••.•••••••••••••1152.UPPERSUSITNARIVERPROJECTAREASPRESENTLYSERVEDBYRAILBELTUTILITIES••••.•••.••.••••••..••••.•7-817.1.UPPERSUSITNARIVERBASINPROJECT16.SYSTEMDAILYGENERATIONCURVEANCHORAGEAREA1977-78••12413.TOTALRAILBELTAREAENERGYFORECAST••••.••••.•••••••••11418.ANNUALPOWERSYSTEMCOSTSWITHANDWITHOUTSUSITNACOMBINEDANCHORAGE-COOKINLETANDFAIRBANKS-TANANA8.ANNUALPOPULATION,EMPLOYMENT,ANDUTILITYCUSTOMERSFAIRBANKS-TANANAVALLEYAREA.•.•••••.•..••••...•..••••997.ANNUALENERGYUSEPERCAPITAANDPERCUSTOMERFAIRBANKS-TANANAVALLEYAREA•.••••••••.••..•.~........985.ANNUALPOPULATION,EMPLOYMENT,ANDUTILITYCUSTOMERSANCHORAGE-COOK·INLETAREA••.•..•••••.••••••••••~......96NUMBER19.3.ENERGYSECTORRATIOSANCHORAGE-COOKINLETAREASANDANNUALENERGYGENERATEDORSOLDANCHORAGE-COOKINLET4.ANNUALENERGYUSEPERCAPITA&PERCUSTOMERANCHORAGE-COOKINLETAREA••••••••.•••••••.••••••••••••956.ENERGYSECTORRATIOSFAIRBANKS-TANANAVALLEYAREAANDANNUALENERGYGEN~RATEDORSOLDFAIRBANKS-TANANA9.ENERGYFORECASTANCHORAGE-COOKINLETAREA•••••.••••;..108 Figure167 PARTI.INTRODUCTIONTheInterimFeasibilityReportoftheUpperSusitnaRiverBasinProject(1976report)wascompletedbytheAlaskaDistrictCorpsofEngineers(Corps)in1976.AlaskaPowerAdministration(APA)providedthetrans-missionsystemandpowermarketanalysesforthatreport.TheCorpssubmittedthe1976reporttotheOfficeofManagementandBudget(OMB)forreview.InSeptember1977,OMBrequestedtheCorpsobtainadditionaldatabeforesubmittingthereporttoCongress.Therequesteddatawereto:(1)provideadditionalgeologicdatafor-theWatanadamsite;(2)'reanalyzethecostestimatecontingencyfactor;(3)reanalyzeareadevelopmentbenefits;and(4)reanalyzetheprojectedco~structionschedule.Therewerealsoquestionsaboutpowersupplyanddemand,includingsensitivitytodevelopingalargeblockofpowerinAPA'sareaofresponsibility.ThisreportupdatesthepowermarketanalysisandaddressesOMBconcerns.Itusesthreeyearsadditionaldataonpowerusage,effectsoftheoilembargo,andotherfaetors.Specifically,it(1)updatesthepowerdemandforecastsreflectingdatasincethe1976report;(2)updatesthetransmissionandprojectOM&Rcosts;(3)presentsload/resourceanalysestodeterminetimingofmajorgenerationandtransmissioninvestmentsandref.lectresultingimpactsonpowersystemcosts;(4)presentssystempowercostanalysesthatshowannualsystem-widecostsofpowerwithandwithouttheUpperSusitnaProject;(5)examinesthevalueofanAnchoragetoFairbanksinterconnectionwithandwithoutSusitna;(6)providesa_subanalysisofthefeasibilityofdeliveringSusitnapowertotheValdez-Glennallenarea;(7)determinespowerratesandmarketabilityofSusitnapowercomparedwithalternativegenerationmethods;and(8)respondstotheOMBquestionsinAPA'sareasofresponsibility.APAgavetheCorps,fortheirreportpurposes:updatedtransmissionsystemcostsandprojectOM&Restimates;loadestimates;detailedload/resourceandsystemcostanalyseswithandwithoutSusitnaproject;andproposedresponsestoOMBquestionspertinenttoAPAareasofresponsibility.•TheCorps'currentproposalfortheUpperSusitn~Projectisessentiallythesameasplan5inthe1976report:atwo-phase,two-damcomplexincludingWatanaandDevilCanyondamsandpowerplants,withtheWatanaphaseandatransmissionsysteminterconnectingAnchorageand~airbankscomingon-linefirst.PowerproductionfacilitiesincludeWatanadam,reservoir,andpowerplant,andDevilCanyondam,reservoir,andpowerplant.Watanadamwouldbeanearthfillstructurewithreservoirnormalwatersurfaceelevationof2,185feet;thepowerplantwouldhave795MWcapacity.DevilCanyondamwouldbeadoubIe-curvatureconcrete-archstructurewithmaximumpoolelevationof1,450feet,providingwaterfora778-MWpowerplant.Thetransmissionsystemwouldbeconstructedinconjunctionwiththefirststage(Watana),and,68 asplanned,wouldbe,totallyrequiredforsystemreliablilty.Thesystemwouldincudetwoparallel230-kvsinglecircuitlinesfromWatanatoDevilCanyon(30miles),twoparallelsinglecircuit345-kvlinesfromDevilCanyontoPt.McKenzie(Anchorage,135miles),andtwoparallelsinglecircuit230-kvlinesfromDevilCanyontoEster-GoldHill(Fairbanks,198miles).SeveralsignificantchangesweremadebytheCorpssincethe1976report:(1)TheDevilCanyondamdesignandcostsare'presentedforbothagravitystructureandathin-archconcretestructure.The1976reportwasbasedonathin-archconcretestructure.(2)TheconstructionperiodforWata.nawasincreasedfrom6yearsto11;'DevilCanyonfrom4yearsto7;andtheAnchorage-Fairbanksintertiere-scheduledfor1991--threeyearsbeforeWatanaPOL.(3)Watanadam(earthfill)wasredesigned,basedonnewgeologicdata.TheAPApowermarketreportusescertainassumptionsthatdifferfromtheCorpsplan,namely:(1)Designpowergenerationcapacity:TheCorpsdesigncapacityisbasedoncriticalyeetrprimaryenergyand50.percentannualplantfactor(1,392MW).TheAPAload/resourceanalysesassumeadesigncapacitybasedonaverageannualenergyand50percentplantfactor(1,573~~).APAanalysesincludebothprimaryandsecondaryenergyaswellasfirmandnon-firmpower.(2)'Transmissionintertieschedule:TheCorpsplansshowa1991on-linedateforthetransmissionintertie.TheAPAsystemcostanalysesexaminealternativeon-linedatesof1990,1992,and1994.Theload/resourceanalysisshowedtheearliestintertiedatescouldbe1986,1989,and1991.APAfinancialanalysesareconsistentwiththeCorpsschedule.(3)ForDevilCanyonDesign:TheAPAsystemcostandfinancialanalyses,assumethethin-archdesignforDevilCanyonaspresentedinthe1976report,ratherthanthemorecostlygravitystructurealternativenowbeingusedbytheCorpsforfeasibilitytesting,Aseparateanalysisdemonstratestheeffectofthegravitydamalternativeoncostofpower.Theterm"1976report"isusedthroughoutthisreport.ThistermreferstotheCorpsofEngineersInterimFeasibilityReportontheUpperSusitnaproject,datedDecember1975,revisedJune1976.Italsorefers.toAPA'sPowerMarketanalysisdated1975andincludedasAppendixGintherevisedInterimFeasibilityReport.69 PartII.SUMMARYCurrentstudieshaveupdatedandrevisedthepowermarketanalysesofthe1976UpperSustinaReport(1976report).NewestimatesofpOvlerrequirementsthroughtheyear2025havebeenprepared.The1976reportusedenergyandpowerestimatesbasedondatathroughDecember1974.ThenewanalysesbenefitfromthreefullyearsofadditionaldatathroughDecember1977.Thisprovidesa'fullfouryearsof"postoil-embargo"data--especia11ysignificantfromtheviewpointofidentifyingconservationtrends.EvidenceofconservationshowsintheAnchorage-CookInletareagrowthcomparisonsbeforeandafterthe1973-74fuelcrisis.The1970-73averageannualgrowthinnetgenerationdroppedfrom14.2percentto12.7percentinthe1973-77period.Thedecreasewasmoredramaticforpercapitanetgeneration:Adropfrom8percentto3.8pe.rcent.Becausethenetgenerationkwh/capitaraioseemedtoreflecttheclosestcorr.e1ations,particularlyinrecentyears,thisratioandpopulationwereusedtoforecastnetgenerationvaluesbetween.1980.and2025.ThefollowingRailbe1ttotalsaredetailedinPartV.TrendedvaluesofferaninterestingcomparisonbutarenotpresentedaspaI'toftheforecast.Thetrendisanaverageannualgrowthof12.3percentresultingfrom12.7percentfortheAnchorageareaand10.5percentfortheFairbanksarea.Rai1beltAreaEnergyForecast(GWH)1977198019902000 2025(HiStOric)Utility:High3,4108,20016,92038,020Mid2,2733,1556,11010,940 17,770Low2,9204,5507,0708,110NationalDefense:High348 384 425544Mid338338338 338338Low330299270210Self-SuppliedIndustry:High1702,1003,5908,490Mid701706301,4603,470Low1413705501,310'Total:High3,92810,68420,93547,054Mid2,6813,6637,07812,73821,578Low3,3915,2197,8909,630Trend@1973-77annual/growth:(3,215)(10,270) (33,000)(601,000)70 Arealoadcharacteristicsdatawereupdatedandnewestimatesofmonthlyenergydistributionweremade.Theconclusionwasthatthe50percentplantfactorsizingassumptionisstillvalid.Afurtherreviewofpossiblepowersupplyalternativesincludedoilandnaturalgas,coal,alternativehydroprojects,nuclear,wind,geothermal,andtide.Itconcludedagainthatcoal-firedsteamplantsarethemostlogicalalternativesformajorra~lbeltareapowersuppliesintheproposedSusitnaprojecttimeframe.Newestimatesofcostofpowerfromcoal-firedsteamplantswere~reparedusingresultsofseveralrecentstudies.Theyindicate:Investmentcostsof$1,620-$1,860/kwUnitcostofpowerof5.2-6.4¢/kwh(includingtransmissiontoloadcenter)Asetofload/resourceandannualsystemcostanalyseswereperformedtoexaminetheeffectsofSusitnaandthetransmissionintertiefromanoverallpowersyst.emapproach.TheseanalyseswereneededtoprovideresponsestoOKBquestionsregarding:(1)thevalueofaninterconnectedtransmissionsystembetweenAnchorageandFairbanks;(2)schedulingofmajorpowerplants;and,(3)sensitivityofdevelopinglargeblocksofpower.APA'sresp'onsetotheOMBquestionsareappended.Thre't\caseswereanalyzedusingthreeprojectedloadgrowthestimates:Case1.It.witho11tSusitnaProjectandwithouttransmissionintertiesituationassumingallgeneratingcapacitytobesuppliedbycoal-firedsteamplant,l..Case2.Sameascase1butwithtransmissionintertie.Case3.AwithSusitnaProjectandwithintertiesituationassumingadditionalgeneratingcapacitysuppliedbycoal-firedsteamplants.Theload/resourceanalysesshowedthescheduleofnewplantadditionsneededforallthreecasesfor1978-2011.Thesystemcostanalysescomparedannualpowersystemcostsforallthreecases,assuming0and5percentinflationrates.Theanalysesshowedannualsystemcostsavingsof$2.23billionbetween1990and2011,withtheSusitnaproject.Averagepowersystemratesfortheyear2000assumingnoinflationwillbe:71 1/AnchorageandFairbanksarenotinterconnectedforcase1;thecombinedsystemrateisshownforacademicpurposesonly.Financial{lnalyseswerebasedontheOctober1978pricelevel,FiscalYear1979Federalinterestrateof71/2percent,intertiein1991or1992,andrepaymentofallprincipalandinterestwithin50yearsafterthelastunitisinstalled.Forthemedium-energyuserange,systemrates,comparedtothosewithoutSusitnaorinterconnections,willbe5.71/percentlesswithinterconnections18.6percentlesswithSusitna.-TheanalysesshowedSusitnawillresultincheaperpowercosttoAnchorageandFairbanksinallloadgrowthcases.ItalsoshowsthatthePf?jectpowercouldbefullyusedunderallprojectedpowerdemandcases.-5.85.76.4-18.6%Case3WithSusitnaandIntertieprojectinvestmentcostincrease""million"lowerratesinvolveloadsupplyoperations,decreasedreservemillion6.46.66.7~/KWHCase2WithoutSustinaWithIntertie$1567$59523382657-5.7%;Case3Value(5.7%)-1Case1Value(7.0%)6.61/6.91/7.51/Case1WithoutSusitnaorIntertieCase2Value(6.6%)-1Case1Value(7.0%)WatanaDevilCanyonTransmissionSystemInterestduringConstructionTotalLoadForecastHighMidLow72Incomparisonwiththe1976report~investmentcostsare89percent($1.567billion)greater.Contributingfactorsare:interestrateincreasefrom6S/8to71/2percenttotalconstructionperiodincreasefrom6yearsto10years,costinflation;andredesignofWatanadamandpowerplantfacilities.NewconstructioncostestimatesfOLWatanadam(containingeffectsofbothdesignquanititychangesandunitcostinflation)are$S95million(72.percent)higher.ConstructioncostestimatesforDevilCanyondam(thin-archconcrete)powerplantfacilities,andthetransmissionsystemwereupdatedprimarilybyindexing.Thisresultedina54percentincreaseoverthe1976report($233millionforDevilCanyonand$82millionforthetransmissionsystem).Thetotalinterestduringconstructionincreaseis265percent($657million).Insummary,theincreasesinconstructioncostsare:Jj1/Interconnectionbenefitsleadingtoflexibility,economicsofscaleandrequirements,andbetterreliability. Acomparison.oftherateforSustinaat4.7¢/kwhwiththecoal-firedsteamplantalternativeat5.2/kwhto6.4¢/kwhshowsSusitnaislesscostly.TheGlennallen-ValdezareawasconsideredasamarketareasupplementarytotheRailbelt.IheCopperValleyElectricAssociation(CVEA)planstoconstructaGlennallen-Valdeztransmissionline,andthepresenceofthepipelineterminalinValdezwithitsrelatedeconomyhasmadethisareaamoreattractivemarketsj,ncethe1976report.Servicetotheareawouldrequirea138-kvlinefromPalmertoGlennallen(136miles).Areamarketfactorsaresubjecttofluctuation.Potentialindustrialloadsaredifficulttoprojectatthistime,butservicetoutilityloadscanbeevaluatedforaprobablerangeofdemands.Energycoststoservetheincrementalmarketareawillrangefrom2.6¢/kwhto1.3¢/kwhforarangeofloadsfrom150to300kwh/yearinadditiontotheprojectenergycostof.4.7¢/kwh.Inclusionofthemarketareacostswithotherprojectcostsforasingleproject-wideratewouldnotadverselyaffecttherate.73 ......74PARTII1.POWERMARKETAREASactivityelsewhereinandoperationofthetoCookInletoilandlocalgovernmentimmediateAnchorageAnchorageareaisdirectlyinfluencedbyeconomictheState.MuchofthebuildupinconstructionAlyeskapipeline,muchofthegrowthrelateddevelopment,andmuchofthegrowthinStateservicessinceStatehoodhasoccurredinthevicinity.Becauseofitscentralroleinbusiness,commerce,andgovernment,theAnchorage-CookInlet...AreaThepotentialmajormarketareasaretheAnchorage-CookInletareaandtheFairbanks-TananaValleyarea•~nitially,economistsoverestimatedtheimpactsofcompletionofthetrans-Alaskaoilpipeline.InarecentstudypreparedbytheUniversityofAlaskaInstituteofSocialandEconomicResearch,theprojected1980populationforAnchorage-CookInletwaslowerthanthatofthehistorical1977population.Thoughthishasbeencorrected,itindicatesthatthearea'seconomyhasbeenstrongerthananticiapted.ThisgeneralareahasbeenthefocalpointformostoftheState'sgrowthintermsofpopulation,business,services,andindustrysinceWorldWarII.Majorbuildingofdefenseinstallations,expansionofgovernmentservices,discoveryanddevelopmentofnaturalgasandoilintheCookInletarea,andemergenceofAnchorageastheState'scenterofgovernment,finance,travel,andtourismaremajorelementsinthehistoryofthisarea..TheGreaterAnchorageAreaBoroughestimateditsJuly1,1977populationat195,800,anincreaseofnearly55percentsincethe1970census.Thiswasmorethan48percentofthetotalestimatedStatepopulationin1977•ThisareaincludesthedevelopedareasoftheMatanuskaValley,GreaterAnchorageArea,andKenaiPeninsula.Throughoutitshist0ryofinvestigations,theUpperSusitnaRiverBasinProjecthasbeenofinterestforhydroelectricpowergenerationbecauseofitscentrallocationtotheFairbanksandAnchorageareas.TheseareashaveAlaska'slargestconcentrationsofpopulation,economicactivity,services,andindustry.Underanyplanofdevelopment,majorportionsoftheprojectpowerwillbeusedinthesetwoareas.Inaddition,thebasicproject·transmissionsystemservingAnchorageandFairbankscouldprovideelectricservicetopresentandfuturedevelopmentsbetweenthetwocities. TheMatanuskaValleyincludesseveralsmallcities(Palmer,~{asi11a,Talkeetna)andtheState'slargestagricultural·community.Othereconomicactivitiesincluderecreationandlightmanufacturing.MuchrecentgrowthinthE?Boroughhasbeeninresidentialandrecreationalhomesforworkersin'theAnchoragearea.Estimated1977populationwas15,740;a61percentincreasesince1974.TheKenaiPeninsulaBoroughincludesthecitiesofKenai,Soldotna,Homer,Seldovia,andSeward~withimportantfisheries,oilandgas,andrecreationresources.Estimated1977populationwas23,100,a39percentincreasesince1974.PresentandproposedactivitiesindicatelikelihoodofrapidgrowthinthisgeneralCookInletareaforthefuture.Muchofthisactivityisrelatedtooilandnaturalgas,includingexpansionoftherefineries.TheStatecapitalcitysiterelocationissueremainsunresolved.IntheNovember1978generalelection,votersturneddownthe$966millionbondissuetorelocatethecapital.Inthesameelection,votersapprovedaninitiativewhichwouldrequirefulldisclosureofthecoststomovethecapital.Therefore,itisimpossibleatthistimetoincludespecificassumptionsconcerningthecapitalmove.TheareawillcontinuetoserveasthetransportationhubofwesternAlaska,andtourismwilllikelycontinue'toincreaserapidly.Majorlocaldevelopmentseemsprobable.Fairbanks-TananaValleyAreaFairbanksisAlaska'ssecondlargestcity-thetradecenterformuchofAlaska'sInterior,theservicecenterforseveralmajormilitarybases,andthesiteofthemaincampusoftheUniversityofAlaskawithitsassociatedresearchcenter.TheoutlyingcommunitiesofNenana,Clear,NorthPole,and:qeltaJunctionareincludedintheFairbanks-TananaValleyarea.Historically,theareaisfamousforitsgold.ThecompletionofthepipelineconstructionhastakenitstollinFairbanks.Theareaisexperiencingaseverelydepressedeconomy.Employ.mentintheconstructionindustryhasdecreasedtohalfofthepreviouspipelinelevel.Therehasbeenaslightincreaseinemploymentgeneratedbygovernment,distributiveindustries,andretailtrade.In1977-78,Fairbanksanditsoutlyingareasexperienceda16percentdeclineinpopulation.The.decisionfavoringtheALCANroutefortheproposednaturalgaspipelinewasmadeinlate1977.Theproposedgaspipelinewillfollowtherouteofthetrans-AlaskaoilpipelineroutefromPrudhoeBaytoDeltaJunction.FairbankshasbeenselectedastheoperationheadquartersbytheNorthwestPipelineCompany,responsibleforconstructionandoperationofthegaspipeline.TheFairbanks-TananaValleYareawillprobablybeheavilyimpactedagainbythepipelineconstruction;however,amorestablepermanentemploymentbaseislikelytobecomeestablished.75 TheFairbanks-NorthStarBoroughhadanestimated1977populationof44,262andanestimatedadditional8,000intheoutlyingcommunitieswithinthepowermarketarea.Thetotalpopulationdecreased10percentsince1974.76 PARTIV.EXISTINGPOWERSYSTEMSUtilitySystemsandServiceAreasTheelectricutilitiesintheRailbeltpowermarketareaarelistedbelow,andareasnowreceivingelectricserviceareshownonfigure2.AdetailedlistingofpowergeneratingunitsisintheappendedBattellereport,table3.4.Anchorage-CookInletAreaAlaskaPowerAdministration(APA)AnchorageMunicipalLightandPower(AJ.'1L&P)ChugachElectricAssociation(CEA)MatanuskaElectricAssociation(MEA)HomerElectricAssociation(HEA)Homer(Standby)Seldovia,EnglishBay,PortGrahamSewardElectricSystem(SES)Fairbanks-TananaValleyAreaFairbanksMunicipalUtilitySystem(FMUS)GoldenValleyElectricAssociation(GVEA)InstalledNameplate2/CapacityMW-30.0121.1345.7l/0.31./1.85.51./69.6219.21/MajorgenerationsuppliedbyCEAsystem.YConsistsof45MWhydro.Alltherestarefuel-fired(80%T'~asturbine)77 -]..Figure278 ThesetotalsdifferfromtheBattelleappendedreportbecausethereportincludessomeplannedunitsnotinstalledin1977aswellasuseofsomeratingsotherthannameplate.APAoperatestheEklutnahydro·electricprojectandmarketswholesalepowertoCEA,AML&P,andMEA.AML&PservestheAnchorageMunicipalarea.CEAsuppliespowertotheAnchoragesuburbsandsurroundingruralareas,andpr.ovidespoweratwholesaleratestoREA,SES,andMEA.TheREAserviceareacoversthewesternportionoftheKenaiPeninsula,includingSeldovia,acrossthebayfromRomer.MEAservesthetownofPalmerandthesurroundingruralareaintheMatanuskaandSusitnaValleys.TheutilitiesservingtheAnchorage-CookInletareaarenowlooselyinterconnectedthroughfacilitiesofAPAandCEA.AnemergencytieisavailablebetweentheAML&PandAnchorageareamilitaryinstallations.FMUSservestheFairbanksmunicipalarea,whileGVEAprovidesservicetotheruralareas.TheFairbanksareapowersuppliershavethemostcompletepowerpoolingagreementintheState.FMUS,GVEA,theUniver-sityofAlaska,andmostofthemilitarybaseshaveanarrangementwhichincludesprovisionsforsharingreservesandenergyinterchange.ThedeliverypointforUpperSusitnapowertotheGVEAandFMUSsystemsisassumedatasubstationof·GVEAnearFairbanks.OthersmallpowergeneratingsystemsintheFairbanks-TananaValleyareawereincludedindeterminingthepowerrequirementsoftheregion.Theyinclude:Fairbanks-TananaValleyAreaAlaskaPowerandTelephoneCompany(TokandDotLakevicinity)NorthwayPowerandLightCompany(NorthwayVicinity)InstalledCapacityMW2.280.48NationalDefensePowerSystemsThesixmajornationaldefenseinstallationsinthepowermarketareaare:Anchoragearea--ElmendorfAirForceBaseFortRichardson7969-7380 -80- 6 Fairbanksarea--ClearAirForceBaseEielsonAirForceBaseFortGreelyFortWainwrightEachmajorbasehasitsownsteamplantthatisusedforpowerandforcentralspaceheating.ExceptforClearAirForceBase,eachisinter-connectedwiththelocalutility.Numeroussmallisolatedinstallationsarenotincludedinthisstudy.Inthepast,nationaldefenseelectricgenerationhasbeenamajorportionofthetotalinstalledcapacity.Withtheprojectedstabilityofmilitarysitesandthegrowthoftheutilities,thenationaldefenseins~a1lationwillbecomealesssignificantpartofthetotalgeneratingcapacity.IndustrialPowerSystemsThreeindustrialplantsontheKenaiPeninsulamaintaintheirownpower-plants,butareinterconnectedwiththeREAsystem.TheUnion76ChemicalDivisionplantgeneratesitsbasicpower,tosatisfyitsenergyneeds,receivingonlystandbycapacityfromREA.TheKenailiquifiednaturalgasplantbuysenergyfromREA,buthasi~sownstandbygeneration.TesoroRefinerybuysfromREAandalsosatisfiespartofitsownneeds.Otherself-suppliedindustrialgeneratorsincludeoilplatformandpipelineterminalfacilitiesintheCookInletarea.ExistingGenerationCapacityTable1prOVidesasummaryofexistinggeneratingcapacity.Thetablewasgenerallycurrentasof1978;TheAnchorage-CookInletareahadatotalutilityinstalledcapacityof504.5M'iVin1977-78.Naturalgas-firedturbineswerethepredominantenergysourcewith435.1MW.Hydroelectriccapacityof45MWwasavailablefromtwoprojects,EklutnaandCooperLake.Steamturbinescomprised14.5MW.Dieselgeneration,mostlyinstandbyservice,accountedfortheremaining9.8MW.TheFairbanks-TananaValleyareautilitieshadatotalinstalledcapacityof288.8MWin1977.Gasturbines(oil-fired)prOVidedthelargestblockofpowerintheareawithaninstalledcapacityof203.1MW.-Steamturbinegenerationprovided53.5MWofpower'anddieselgeneratorscontributed32.1MWtothearea.80 Table1RAILBELTAREAGENERATIONCAPACITYSummary-1977UpperSusitnaProjectPowerMarketAnalysisArea-Anchorage-CookInletHydroInstalledCapacity-MWDieselGasSteamInt.Comb.TurbineTurbineTotalutilitySystem:'.,':NationalDefense'..Industrial.SystemSubtotalFairbanks-TananaValleyutilitySystem.NationalDefenseSubtotal45.045.09.89.210.229.332.114.046.1435.114.8449.9203.1203.114.540.555.053.563.0116.5504.549.725.0579.2288.877.0365.8Notes:Source:Themajorityofthedieselgenerationisinstandbystatus.Roundingcausesdifferencesbetweensummationsofthepartsandthetotalsshown.utilityreportstoAlaskaPublicutilityCommissiontotheDepartmentofEnergy,theAlaskaAirCommand,theoilandgascompanies,andAPAfiles.(MinordifferencesexistbetweenthistableandtheappendedBattelleReport.)81 PlannedGenerationCapacityThetwomajorutilitiesintheAnchorage-CookInletarea,AML&PandCEA,plantoaddatotalofapproximately420~~installedcapacitytotheirexistingsystembetween1979and1985.A..'1L&Pplanstoadda16.5-MWcombinedcyclesystemtotheirexistingcombustionturbine.Inaddition,CEAhasplanstocompietethe230-kvinterconnectionloopwithMEA.InDecember1978,GVEAdecidedtopostponedevelopmentoftheirproposedHealyIIsteamturbinesystem(104MW)untilmorefavorableeconomicconditionsprevail.AunitbyunitbreakdownofplannedgeneratingsystemsispresentedintheappendedBattellereport,table3.8.82• DataNationalDefense-Includesallmilitaryinstallations.Thethreeenergyusesectorsanalyzedinthisstudyare:Residentia...l,iPOWERREQUIREMENTSIntroductionPARTV.83Evaluationsofmonthlyenergydistributionandinstalledcapacityrequirementsareincludedandarepremisedoncharacteristicsofareapowerdemands.UtilityIncludesallutilities_whichserveresidentialandcommercial/industrialcustomers.Theutilitycomponentisdividedintofoursectors:Commercial-Industrial,TotalSales,andN~tGeneration.Estimatesoffutureutilitypowerneedsarederivedfromestimatesofindividualenergyuseandareapopulation.PopulationprojectionsweredevelopedbytheUniversityof-Alaska,InstituteofSocialandEconomicResearch(ISER).Theindividualuseforecastwasestimatedbyassumedconservation-inducedchangesinkwh/capitagrowthrates.Theendresultsareforecastsofnetgeneration(kwh)andpeakloaddemand(kw).Self-SuppliedIndustry-Includeslimitednumberofheavyindustries,i.e.,naturalgasandoilprocessingindustriesontheKenaiPeninsulawhichgeneratetheirownpower.Thestudyassumesthattheseindustrieswillpurchaseenergyifitbecomeseconomicallyfeasible.Somehaveinterchangeagreementswithlocalutilities.ThehistoricaldatasummarizestheAnchorage-CookInletandFairbanks-TananaValleyareaswhichcomprisetheRailbeltarea.Eachareaisdividedintoutility,nationaldefense,andself-suppliedindustrialcomponents(Fairbanks-TananaValleyareahasnoknownSignificantself-suppliedindustries).Thispresentsthebasicparametersusedintheanalysesleadingtothe/SusitnaPowerMarketforecastassumptions.Thissummarizestheanalysesofhistoricdataandestimatesoffutureneedsinthe·powermarketareas.Thestudyexaminesindetailelectricutilitystatistics1970to1977withspecialefforttoidentifychangesinusepatternsrelatedtoconservationmeasuressincethe1973oilembargo. Datawascollectedfromutilityandindustryreportstovariousgovernmentagencies,fromutilitiesdirectly,fromAlaskamilitarycommands,bycorrespondencewithindustry,andfromvariousstatisticalpublicationsandnewsmedia.Aspartoftheforecastingfoundation,thefollowinghistoricalchronologyindicatesfluctuationsaffectingRailbeltenergyuse.1973.StartoffuelcrisisandconservationpublicityinDecember.Belowaveragetemperature.1977.Oilstartedflowinginpipeline.Warmestyearofperiod.ResidentialconstructionboominAnchorage.Largeincreaseinnon-residentialauthorizationsissued.averageBelowpipeline.concerningconcerningtheoilpipelinedesign,Nativelandclaimslegislationpending.Uncertaintyconcerningpipeline.Coldestyearofperiod.UncertaintyUncertaintyandapproval.temperature.Startofpipeline·construction.Nearaveragetemperature.Peakofpipelineconstructionactivity.Nearaveragetempera-1975.ture.1976.Startofpipelineconstruction"wind-down."ElectricpowercableacrossKnikArmoutofserviceforanextendedperiod(allbutonecircuit).Aboveaveragetemperature.1974.1972.1970.construction,Aboveaverage1971.temperature.Basicdataneededforthe1970-1977analysisarepresentedontables2,3,and4includedisutilityannualenergyandcustomersforeachsector,nationaldefenseandindustrialannualenergyconsumption,utilityandnationaldefenseannualpeakload,industrialinstalledcapacity,annualpopulation,andaverageannualemployment.Inaddition,utilitynetgeneration,listedontables5and6,wascompiledforthe1960-1977period.84 Table2BASICPOWERANDENERGYFORECASTINGDATAANCHORAGE-COOKINLETAREA(INCLUDINGSEWARD)UpperSusitnaProjectPowerMarket.AnalysisUtilityEnergySales(GWH)NetGeneration(GWH)YearResi.Comm./lndu.Totall/Utilityl/Nat.Def.1/Indu.19701971197219731974197519761977310.5369.7421.6459.5496.1595.1677.6741.0342.3393.9454.0514.8552.8631.9738.7813.4678.7792.5911.61,012.21,087.41,270.61,462.21,600.8744.1886.91,003.81,108.51,189.71,413.01,615.31,790.1156.2161.2166.5160.6155.1132.8140.3130.61.6545.345.369.5UtilityCustomersPeakLoad(MW)Year19701971197219731974197519761977Resi.39,27142,50146,72449,30752,58556,80161,88168,320Comm./Indu.5,2305,5816,1046,4916,7987,4788,2209,221.Total45,04248,67053,27856,28059,89364,79770,62278,06'6Utility165.2184.8212.8229.9257.2345.8349.9423.9Nat.Def.34.633.932.640.5Indu.!!.!12.312.312.324.8PopulationCivilianTotalEmploymentAvg.Annual19701971197219731974197519761977135,963145,108155,084160,162165,938196,320207,090222,424149,428159,046167,765174,280179,544209,049219,337234,67447,40851,09254,32957,15765,91978,7?683,60488,8691/Excludesdeliveriestonationaldefense.2/Totalretailsalesofenergy+non-revenueenergyused+losses.3/Includesreceiptsfromutilities,excludesdeliveriestoutilities.4/Self-suppliedindustrialdataisinstalledcapacityratherthanpeakload.GWH=millionKWHMW=thousandKWKW=Kilowatt85 UpperSusitnaProjectPowerMarketAnalysisTable3BASICPOWERANDENERGYFORECASTINGDATAFAIRBANKS-TANANAVALLEYAREA1/Excludesdeliveriestonationaldefense.2/Totalsales+non-revenueuse+losses.3/Includesreceiptsfromutilities,excludesdeliveriestoutilities.4/Self-suppliedindustrialdataisinstalledcapacityratherthanpeakIeNetGeneration(GWH)Utility'l:./Nat.Def.1/239.3203.5275.5201.4306.7203.3323.7200.0353.8197.0450.8204.4468.5217.5482:9206.8PeakLoad(MW)UtilityNat.Def.56.344.465.366.641.472.787.540.8110.0102.6118.941.0210.2244.3262.9282.3323.0409.2420.5442.7Total1/Employment.Avg.Annual15,68115,81716,87316,79421,96034,45134,32527,38512,26812,94713,61114,04115,08416,44718,17919,46352,14150,58552,38352,24657,83667,01163,76252,155108.3119.8127.3139.5150.3196.3204.2221.61,7211,-7791,8391,9292,0692,2472,4352,580Comm./Indu.42,31043,18845,51645,39651,13760,88458,051(e)47,155(e)UtilityEnergySales(GWH)91.7112.4122.3134.4155.8193.0195.9200.7ResLPopulationCivilianTotal10,36411,01411,58411,93112,83214,02515,56916,709197019711972197319741975197619771970197119721973~97419751976197719701971197219731974197519761977YearUtilityCustomersYearResi.Comm./Indu.TotalGWH=millionKWHMW=thousandKW86 Table4BASICPOWERANDENERGYFORECASTINGDATARAILBELTAREAUpperSusitnaProjectPowerMarketAnalysisUtilityEnergySales(GWH)NetGeneration(GWH)YearResi.Comm./Inq.u.TotalUtilityNat.Def.Indu.Total1970402.2 450.6888.9983.4359.71.61,344.71971482.1513.71,036.8 1,162.4362.625(e)1,550.01972543.9581.31,174.5 1,310.5369.845.31,725.61973593.9654.31,294.51,432.2360.645.3(e)1,838.11974651.9703.11,410.41,543.5352.145.31,940.91975788.1828.21,679.81,863.8337.245.3(e)2,246.31976873.5942.91,882.72,083.8357.845.3(e)2,486.91977941.7_1,035.02,043.52,273.0337.469.52,679.9UtilityCustomersPeakLoad(MW)YearResi.Comm./lndu.TotalUtilityNat.Def.Indu.Total197049,6356,95157,310221.579.012.3312.8197153,51:;7,38061,617,250.177(e)12.3(e)3l197258,3087,94366,889279.475.312.336,.0197361,2388,42070,321302.674(e)12.3(e)388.9197465,4178,86774,977344.773.412.3430.4197570,8269,72581,244455.873(e)12.3(e)541.1197677,45010,65488,801452.576(e)12.3(e)540.8197785,02911,80197,529542.881.524.8649.1)aO19701971197219731974197519761977TotalPopulation201,569209,631220,148226,526237,380276,060283,099286,829Avg.AnnualEmployment63,08966,90971,20273,95187,879113,237117,929116,25487 -__--=-c-~:=-~~-=c;~---~~~~'O~~~,~~:~=~__--~'C =.~~->--.c,;,?:~~'=.=.":"::':~--;-- Table 5 NET GENERATION (GWH) ANCHORAGE-COOK INLET AREA Upper Susitna Project Power Market Analysis (Includes receipts of electric energy from military;excludes electric energy deliveries to military) Year AML&P CEA APA MEA UEA KU SES Total Growth %- 1960 0.8 27.5 187.6 0.1 8.2 1.8 5.7 231.6 1961 3.2 44.8 193.8 0.1 3.6 2.0 6.2 253.7 9.5 1962 20.0 101.8 150.3 0.2 0 2.3 3.7 278.2 9.7 1963 55.7 100.5 152.7 0.2 0 2.7 0 311.8 12.1 1964 97.3 94.5 146.1 0.5 1.2 3.8 0 343.4 10.1 1965 101.2 167.4 132.1 0.6 1.4 4.1 0 406.8 18.5 1966 108.6 204.6 138.2 0.7 1.4 5.2 0 458.7 12.8 1967 100.1 217.1 178.5 0.8 1.5 6.7 0 504.6 10.0 co 1968 125.3 280.0 155.5 0.8 1.7 10.1 0 573.4 6.5 co 1969 148.1 314.6 158.2 0.9 2.2 8.9 0.1 633.0 17.8 1970 186.0 385.5 154.7 1.1 2.4 9.0 0.1 738.8 16.7 1971 24?3 476.6 144.9 1.3 2.7 8.0 0.1 878.9 19.0 1972 270.0 554.2 164.0 1.5 3.3 7.0 0.1 1,000.1 13.8 1973 359.0 657.3 96.3 0.3 3.6 --0.1 1,116.5 11.6 1974 389.6 678.4 1.1 --4.2 --0.1 1,197.4 7.2 1975 384.3 888.8 135.1 --3.4 --3.2 1,414.9 18.2 1976 442.9 1,054.5 118.5 --0.5 --1.5 1,617.3 14.3 1977 420.3 1,179.7 203.6 --0.5 --0.8 1,804.9 11.5 AHL&P CEA APA MEA HEA KU .. SES -Anchorage Municipal Light and Power -Chugach Electric Association -Alaska Power Administration -Matanuska Electric-Association -Homer Electric Association -Kenai Utilities -Seward Electric System Table6NETGENERATION(GWH)FAIRBANKS-TANANAVALLEYAREAUpperSusitnaProjectPowerMarketAnalysis(Includesreceiptsofelectricenergyfrommilitary;excludeselectricenergydeliveriestomilitary)YearFMUGVEAAP&TDLENP<otalGrowth%196036.724.40.10.661.8196138.829.40.10.668.911.5196242.333.31.0.10.677.212.1196345.439.11.20.1 0.686.411.9196448.453.61.50.10.6104.220.6196549.556.61.80.1 0.6108.64.2196652.667.02.10.10.6122.412.7196755.975.92.00.20.6134•.610.0196864.097.92.00.20.6164.722.4196972.2118.12.10.20.6193.317.4197085.6150.21.90.20.6238.623.41971106.7164.92.40.20.6274.715.11972120.3182.22.60.20.8306.111.41973115.4202.22.70.20.9321.45.01974123.0214.33.50.21.2342.16.41975137.2286.93.90.21.6429.725.61976139.6315.14.20.21.4460.47.11977133.5346.34.50.21.4485.85.5FMU-FairbanksMunicpa1UtilitiesGVEA-GoldenValleyElectricAssociationAP&T-AlaskaPowerandTelephone(Tok)DLE-DotLakeElectric(PurchasedbyAP&Tin1978)NP&L-NorthwayPowerandLight89 UtilityAnalysisDetailedinvestigationsofrelationshipsamongthebasicdatacomponentsarelistedintables2,3,and4.Analysiswasdoneseparatelyforeachmajorsector(utility,nationaldefense,andself-suppliedindustry)withineacngeographicarea.evaluationfortheTheforegoingobservationsfollowingResults90Constants,smallamplitudecycles,ortrendsinrelationshipsamongtheenergyuseandcustomersectorswereinvestigatedforuseasforecastingaids.If,forinstance,theresidentialenergyuse/netgenerationratioremainedalmostconstantfrom1970through1977,onlynetgenerationneedbesubjectedtotheforecastingprocedure.Thesametypeofanalysiswasappliedtoenergyuseratios:alookforanaverageortrendtoDeusedasafactorinforecastingnetgeneration.proceduresresultedintheAnchorage-CookInletarea.Theanalysisofutilitydatasetouttodevelopassumptionsforfore-castingnetgenerationandpeakload.Investigationsevaluatedtheimpactofchangesinpopulation,employment,customers,weather,tariffs,andothereventsuponenergyu,se.Theseevaluationsthenhelpedto:(1)determineifenergysectors(residential,commercial-industrial,totalsales)otherthannetgenerationneededtobeforecast;(2)determinewhichenergyratio(kwh/capita,kwh/employee,kwh/customer)touseintheforecastingprocedure;(3)developprocedureforforecastingutilityannualnetgenerationfromenergyuseassumptionsanddemographicparameters(population,employees,orcustomers);(4)determineloadfactorwithwhichtocalculatepeakloadforecastfromthenetgenerationforecast.TheevaluationsshowedamixofsimilarityandcontrastbetweenthetwoRailbeltareas.Inbothareas,themajorenergyusedeterminantswerethetrans-Alaskaoilpipelineconstructionandthefuelcrisisof1973-74.Othercorrelationswithweather,tariffs,etc.,seemedinsignificant.Forinstance,energygrowthincreasedinsomeyearsdespiteaboveaveragetemperatureswhichreducedenergyneed.Anchorage-CookInletAreaAnalysisAfterdevelopingthenetgenerationforecast,thepeakloadforecastwascalculatedusingenergyandanassumedloadfactor.Analysisofhistoricloadfactorsdeterminedanaverageortrendfromwhichtheassumedloadfactorwasderived.Forecastednetgenerationandtheassumedfutureloadfactorwerethenusedintheformula:Peakload=8,760hr/yr.xloadfactorxnetgeneration•. (a)Observationsindicatenosignificantshiftinenergyusepatternsorinshareoftotalloadamongthevariousutilitysectors(residential,etc.).Theratiosamongthesectors(residential/totalsales;totalsales/netgeneration,etc.)remainedessentiallyconstantthroughthestudyperiod.Thiswastrueforbothenergyandcustomers.Therefore,onlyonesector--netgeneration--represents.allsectorsintheforecast.(b)Energyrateofgrowthpercustomerandpercapitahadasignificantreductionafterthe1973-74fuelcrisis.The1973-77percapitaaveragegrowthratewasabouthalfthatfor1970-73.Itappearsthatconservationcanbeconsideredaninfluenceafter1973.(c)Eventsimpinginguponenergyusearelistedintheprevioussection.Between1973and1977,severaleventsbearrepeatingforemphasis:fuelcrisisin1974;startof'pipelineconstructionin1974;peakpipelineactivityin1975;decreas~ofpipeline'activityin1976and1977;cablesacrossKnikArm,whichcarryalargeshareofAnchorageenergy,wentoutofservicein1976;warmerthanaverageweatherin1974,1976,andespecially1977.Yearlygrowthrates'reflectedratherlargefluctuationsasdifferenthistoricaleventsinfluencedeachparameter.(ThisisarecurringphenomenoninAlaskanhistory).(d)Parameterswerenotinfluencedalikeasfigures3through8attest.Forinstance,customergrowthreacted'toeventsinasteadierpatternthandidpopulationandemployment.ReasonsforthisaremorepeopIepercustomerandtimeneededforconnectingmorecustomerstoautilitysystemattheinitialonsloughtoflargedemographicgrowth.(e)Comparingtheenergyfluctuationswithothers,suchaspopulationandemployment,gaveameasureofcorrelationbetweenparameters.(Theenergyuseandcustomergrowthfluctuationscorrelatedonlyinpart;theirpatternsdidnotcoincideeveryyear).However,energyandpopu-lationgrowthratechangeswerecoincidentalforeveryyearbut1977.Thatis,whentheenergygrowthrateincreased,sodidthepopulationgrowthrate;whenthepopulationgrowthratedecreased,sodidtheenergygrowthrate.(f)Energyuseandweathercomparisonswereinconclusive.Wammweatherdidnotbringcorrespondingreductioninenergyuse.Coldweatherincreasesinenergyusewereburiedinotherevents(pipelineconstruction,etc.).(g)Becausethenetgenerationkwh/~apitaratioseemedtoreflecttheclosestcorrelations,particularlyinrecentyears,thisratioandpopulationwereusedtoforecastnetgenerationvaluesbetween1980and2025.(h)Valuesbasictotheforecastingassumptionsarethekwh/capitaratioaveraging3.8percentaverageannualgrowthbetween1973and1977andnetgenerationaveraging12.7percent.(i)Averageannualgrowthresultsaresummarizedontable7.Figures3,4,and5aregraphsofpertinentelementsoftheanalysis.91 Fairbanks-TananaValleyAreaAnalysisResultsSomeoftheAnchorage-CookInletareaevaluationresultsapplyalsototheFairbanks-TananaValleyarea,othersdonot.Thefollowingobservationsparallelt~oseofAnchorage-CookInlet.(a)Nosignificantshiftinenergyusepatternsorinshareoftotalloadamongthevariousutilitysectors(residential,etc.).Again,onlyonesector--netgeneration--needbeforecast.(b)EnergygrowthwassimilartothatofAnchorage(somewhatsmallerinthepre-1973period);butcustomer,population,andemployeegrowthweredifferentinthetwoareas.Consequently,theenergyusepercustomer,percapita,andperemployeeratiosindicatedifferentgrowthpatternsinFairbanks.ThelargeswingsofemploymentandpopulationinFairbanksduringpipelineconstructioncomparedtoalmostconstantpreconstructionvaluescloudcomparisonsofthetwoperiods.·(c)Although.the"effectsofpipelineconstructionareevident,thepopulation/employeeratio(2.29averagethroughthestudyperiod)wasconstantenoughtoindicatethateitherpopulationoremploymentcanbeusedasaforecastingparameter.(d)Theeffectsofweatheronenergyusecouldnotbedetected.Insomeyears,degreedayvariationswerenotinphasewithenergyusevariations.(e)Energyuse/capitaexhibitedwidervariationsthantheothertworatios~but,nevertheless,hadthenearesttoconstantaverage.annualgrowthrates.Becauseofthisandtheotherobservations,netgenerationkwh/capitaandpopulationwereusedtoforecastnetgenera-tion.(f)AsintheAnchorage-CookInletarea,valuesbasictotheforecastingassumptionsarethenetgeneration/capitagrowth,averaging10.6percentperyear,andnetgenerationgrowth,averaging10.5percentperyearbetween1973and1977.(g)Growthrateresultsaresummarizedontable7.Figures6, 7,and8aregraphsofsomepertinentelementsoftheanalysis.92 'Table7AVERAGEANNUALUTILITYGROWTHSUMMARYANCHORAGE-COOKINLETAREAUpperSusitnaProjectPowerMarketAnalysisAvg.GrowthAvg•.Growth197O.1973 19771970-19731973-1977EnergyGWHR~sidentialSal~s31046074114.0%12.6%Commercial/Industrial34251581314.712.1TotalSales6791,0121,60114.212.1NetGeneration7441,1081,79014.212.7EnergyUse,kwh/CustomerResidential7,9079,31910,8465.63.8Commercial/Industrial65,44979,31088,2125.62.6TotalSales15,06817,98520,5066.03.3EnergyUse,kwh/CapitaResidential2,2842,8693,3328.03.8Commercial/Industrial2,5183,2143,6578.63.3TotalSales4,9926,3207,1978.33.3NetGeneration5,4736,9218,0488.03.8Fairbanks-TananaValleyAreaAvg.GrowthAvg.Growth1970197319771970-19731973-1977EnergyGWHResidentialSales9213420113.4% 10.7%Commercial/Industrial1081402229.112.2TotalSales21028244310.211.9NetGeneration23932448310.810.5EnergyUse,kwh/CustomerResidential8,85211,26212,0108.31.7Commercial/Industrial62,93172,30385,8994.84.4TotalSales1.1,13420,104 22,7465.43.1EnergyUse,kwh/CapitaResidential1,7592,5723,84813.510.6Commercial/Industrial2,0772,6704,2498.712.3TotalSales4,0315,4038,48810.312.0NetGeneration4,5896,1969,25910.510.6APA11/7893 EJ.'iEHGYSECl'ORPATJCS941977=50.3%Avg.=46.1%A1\'ll'.'1Jl\LOO-~RGYGENEPA'lH1ORSOLDANCHORr,GE-CCOKINL.'S'rAtlF)\UpperSusitnaProjectPowerMarketAnalysisFigure3______.-..a.r:....-.--.~.•__•.---------------,1\J.'\1Q!ai~7\GE-CO)KINT~r.;rA!'£l\UpperSusitnaProjectPowerMarketAnalysis~~...-'--._~------------------_._..~'""--..~-------ICornmcl:cia1-Inc1ustrialSales-49.TotalSales;"vg.~4.~I'*''i,Is::46----.-.-!::-:::':~:-==::'=""---....c,.._.--------------..~=.-:::_:-::-:~:o==='=':::-:-::=l...~~--------45ResidentialSalesS44TotalSales~4342·~------==-:=::-:::"B-.-:o..:::..:::.:::.:::.=.==~~~==:~~~~==---""""",dIResidentialSale-s...:;:41I40:,-:;:::------+1------+1------tl------+I!:Nl.!:e~t~G~c::n~e~r:..:a~t~.i:.:o~n:..___....!.1I.::...."f•.g!..:.~~4~1:..:.~7~%:.-J19,70197119721973.1974197519761977YEl\PS1800170()10001500~14001300s::01200'..rio1100riTorfF-1000II§900\.:ls::sno'..-I700T~;..600tt,cr:500~n400T=-3001970 Figu:r:e411,000i\NlI.'UlII,ENE1~f.USEFEI{CAPIT,\ANDPERCUSTa.~1ERANCIIORl>.GE-COOKmu:rAI~l\UpperS~sitnaProjectPowerMarketAnalysis'10,0009,0008,0007,0005,000•4,0003,0001977197619"15197419731972L..-----,It------\-----1-:-.-----!-------+------{-----__J19712,00019"709569-738a-80-7 250,000225,000200,000175,000W-J0..oW150,0000..1.1..oC/)0::W .ml25,OOO:2:.:::>Z100,000-75,000ANNUl\LPOPULATION.Ef~iPLOYMr::NTtANDUTILITYCUSTOr.1ERSANCHORAGE-COm<INLETAREAUpperSusitnaProjectPowerMarketAnalysisFigure5iI~2...'\000l-__.IL.Il-__-LI__--L.I__-JI..l.-L_---:--_119701971197219731974 197519761977YEARS96 Figure6Avg.=48.9%Avg.=46.4%ResidentialSalesAvg.=41.3%NetGeneration~.",.--._._---~---------.ResidentialSal.esTotalSales- --::::."..,-;-Commercial-IndustrialSalesTotalSales38ENERGYSECTORRATiOSFAIRBANKS-TANANAVALLEYAREAUpperSusitnaProjectPowerMarketAnalysis525048-~460Z-440t-«a:"dentialsales(GWH)Res~.a1.salesCial-l:ndustr~Cammer36loo-__--.&....I.....J..-J--I--L-__--.l1970197/197219731974/97519761977YEARSANNUALENERGYGENERATEDORSOLOFAIRBANKS-TANANAVALLEYAREAUppersusitnaProjectPowerMarketAnalysis500J:4003=~zo--J~OO-J-~..:x:~200~.>-(!)0::100ILlZlU--01-...__-.i....L-J.._-:---_-I--L-...L.-__----I/970197//972/973/974/975/976/977YEARS07 Figure7197719761975(Ttl.)197419731972Up~SusitnaProjectPowerMarketAnalysisANNUALENERGYUSEPERCAPITAANDPERCUSTOMERFAIRBANKS-TANANAVALLEYAREA197130002000°1970-1000400014,00010,000J1,00012,00013POO-..,..7000>-(!)a::6000lJJZIJJ5000-.::I:9000~~8000YEARS98 ~talPopulation70,00050,000I.Ll..Ja.oI.Ll40,000a.u.o(J)0:::I.Llm:30,000~::JZ20,000Figure8ANNUALPOPULATION,EMPLOYMENT,ANDUTILITYCUSTOMERS-.EAIRJ3ANKS-TANANAVALLEYAREA._._---_.__.._-_..._-_._--_._----'UpperSusitnaProjectPowerMarketAnalysisAvel:ageAnnUalEmploymentResidentialCustomersCommercial-rndustrialCUstomers19701971197219731974.YE-ARS99/97519761977 NationalDefenseEvaluationofhistoricalnationaldefensedataresultedinnet'generationandpeakloadaverages.Theanalysisencompassedtheu.s.ArmyandAirForceinstallationsintheAnchorageandFairbanksareas.Nodefinitetrendssurfaced--onlyasmall,cyclic.decreaseintheAnchorageareanetgenerationandanincreaseinpeakload.IntheFairbanksarea,netgenerationincreasedslightlyandpeakloaddecreased.Totalnationaldefenseisabout15percentofutilityforbothnetgenerationandpeakload.Self-SuppliedIndustryRailbeltindustryandtheupperKenaiPeninsulacomplexshowednosignificantchangeincapacityandenergygenerationuntil1977whenthechemicalplantexpanded.Therefore,theanalysisconsistedofaplantfactordeterminationonly.Otherfactorsneededinforecastingarediscussedasassumptionsinthenextsection.EnergyandPowerDemandForecastsThissectionpresentsfutureenergyandpowerrequirementestimatesdevelopedfromthepreviousanalyses.Workforthenewestimatesconsistedof:(1)usingtheanalysestoobtainforecastingassumptions;(2)usingtheassumptionsinforecastingutilitynetgeneration/capita;(3)combiningnetgeneration/capitawithInstituteofSocialandEconomicResearch(ISER)populationprojectionstoobtaintheutilitynetgener:ationforecast,andforecastingnationaldefenseandindustrygenerationfrompertinentassumptions;and(4)combiningthenetgenerationforecastwithloadfactorsresultingfromthehistoricaldataanalysisto·obtainpeakload(powerrequirement)forecasts.AssumptionsandMethodologyPopulation-TheISEReconometricmodeloftheSouthcentralRegionWaterStudy(LevelB)furnishedhighandlowrangepopulationforecasts.ThemodeldisaggregatedtheAnchorage':'CookInletarea.fromastatewidepopulationforecast.Norecent,applicableforecastofFairbanks-TananaValleypopulationwasavailable;therefore,APAassumedstatewidegrowthratesfromtheISERmodelappliedtotheFairbanks-TananaValleyareas.(Seetable8).Utility-Assumptions,basedontheprecedinganalyses,leadtothenetgenerationandpeakloadforecast.Netgenerationistheproductofforecastedenergyusepercapitaandprojectedpopulation.Peakloaddemandisderivedfromnetgenerationandtheassumedutilityloadfactor.Multiplyingthesegrowthratesbyforecasted1980valuesofkwh/capitaresultedintheenergyuseestimates.100 Table8POPULATIONESTIMATES1980-2025RAILBELTAREAUpperSusitnaProjectPowerMarketAnalysis1/Statewide1/Fairbanks-Tanana2/Anchorage-CookInlet-Valley-~HighLowHighLowHighLow1980270,200239,200513,766500,22562,020 60,3901985320,000260,900640,718563,30377,35068,0101990407,100299,200790,042618,39795,37074,6601995499,200353,000947,312680,286114,36082,1302000651,300424,4001,157,730743,034139,76089,7002025904,000491,1001,484,784820,369179,24099,040Notes:*Nomid-rangeestimatesareshownbecause,whentheforecastsweredone,ISER1/hadmadeonlythehighandlowprojections.Acomparisonofthemid-rangeforecastalreadyperformed(seetextformethod)withoneusingthemid-rangepopulation,whenreceived,indicatednoreasontore-dotheforecasts.*Valuesshownincludenationaldefensepopulation1/FromIser,SouthcentralAlaska'sEconomyandPopulation:AbaseStudy1965-2025.September1978withDecember1978revisions.1/Calculatedfromstatewidegrowthrates.101 Multiplyingthesegrowthratesbyforecasted1980valuesofkwh/capitaresultedintheenergyuseestimates.Sincetheratiosofresidential,commercial-industrial,andtotalsalesenergytonetgenerationremainconstant,netgenerationisassumedtobeanappropriateforecastingparameter.Theevaluationsindicatedthattheothersectorsdonotneedindividualforecasting.Thebasicenergyuse(netgenerationkwh/capita)assumptionfortheentireRailbeltareaisa3.5percentaverageannual,mid-range,1980-85growthrate.ItisbasedontheAnchorage-CookInletareavalueof3.8percentannualgrowthflom.1973-77andanassumedcontinuationofthepost-1973conservation-trend.AsmentionedintheAnchorage-CookInletareaevaluations,aconservationtrendwasapparentwhencomparingenergyusegrowthratesfor1973-77and1970-73(seetable7).Tiedtothisistheassumptionofgraduallyincreasingeffectivenessoffutureconservationprogramscoupledwithperhapsupperlimitsof.electricenergyuse.Thesearereflectedinanaverageannualgrowthbytheyear2000or2percentforhighrange,1percentformid-range,and0percentforlowrange.Theseassumptionsresultindecreasedgrowthratesforeachfive-yearincrement,asshownbelow:2.5%2.0%1.5%1.0%0%Low3.5%3.0%2.5%2.0%1.0%MidHigh4.5%3.5%3.0%2.5%2.0%1980-19851985-19901990-19951995-20002000-2025TimePeriodThe1980mid-rangevalueofkwh/capitawasderivedfromthe1973-1977averageannualgrowthofnetgeneration.The1980netgenerationwasestimated.TheAnchorage-CookInletmid-rangeassumptionof12percentannualloadgrowthratefor1977-80netgenerationcamefromahistorical12.7percent.TherespectiveFairbanks-TananaValleyvalueswere10.5percentassumed,10.6percenthistorical.Mid-range1980kwh/capitawascalculatedusingtheestimatednetgenerationandprojectedpopulation.The1980highandlowrangeaverageannualkwh/capitagrowthratesforFairbanks-TananaValleywereassumed120percentand80percentofthecalculatedmid-rangevaluerespectively.ComparablevaluesforAnchorage-CookInletwere130percentand80percent.Thedifferencesbetweenthetwoareasreflectpopulationestimatesandanattempttoderiveareasonable1977-80transitionperiodcoupledwiththepopulationestimates.Peakload(MW)forecastswerecalculatedusinga50percentloadfactor.Anchorage-CookInletarealoadfactoraveraged51.9percentbetween1970and1977and51.0percentbetween1973and1977.Fairbanksareaaveraged48.9percentand48.4percentinthesameperiods.1/Conservationhereincludesresultsofthefuelcr~s~sandperhapsofnationwidepublicityontheneedforsavingenergy.Otherfactorsmaybeinvolved,butnoothereventsareascoincidentalwithreducedenergyuseasisthefuelcrisis.102 NationalDefense-HistoricaldatafromArmyandAirForceinstallationsintheAnchorageandFairbanksareasindicatereasonabIeenergyassumptionstobe:1.0percentannualgrowthformid-rangeforecast,1percentforhighrange,and-1percentforlowrange.2.A50percentloadfactorwasassumedforusewithenergy(netgeneration)toobtainpeakload.Self-SuppliedIndustries-Thefollowingassumptionsweredevelopedfromexistingdataandconditions,consultationswithmanyknowledgeablepeopleingovernmentandindustry,andfromreportsonfuturedevelopments.1.Industrieswillpurchasepowerandenergyifeconomicallyfeasible.2.ForecastbasedonlistingintheMarch1978Battellereport.3.Highrangeincludesexistingchemicalplant,LNGplant,andrefineryaswellasnewLNGplant,refinery,coalgasificationplant,miningandmineralprocessingplants,timberindustry,cityandaluminumsmelterorsomeotherlarge,energyintensiveindustry.4.Mid-rangeincludesalloftheaboveexceptthealuminumsmelter.5.Lowrangeincludesalllistedunderhighrangeexceptthealuminumsmelterandthenewcapital.6.Insomeinstances,high,mid,andlowrangemaybedifferentiatedbyamountofinstalledcapacityaswellasthetypeofinstallationsassumed.7.Noself-suppliedindustriesareassumedfortheFairbanks-Tanana.Valleyarea.Anyindustrialgrowthhasbeenassumedeither(1)includedinutilityforecastsor(2)notlikelytobeinterconnectedwiththeareapowersystems.8.Netgenerationforecastcalculatedfromforecasted.capacityandaplantfactorof60percent.TheISERscenario.industrialmodelassumedthefollowingItiscomparedtoindustriesforecastsofthisreport.103CookInletareaindustrialassumedfortheself-supplied MIDRANGE31Partofcoalgasificationcouldbeequivalentto"BelugaCoal,"butitismuchmorethan"40employeesinshipping."ArecentdecisionbyALPETCOchangesthistotheValdezarea.Thechangesinvolvedwerenotenou~htowarrantforecastrevisions.Existingrefinery(2.4MW)ExistingLNGplant(.4to.6MW)Coalgasification(0to250MW)21Newcity(0to30MW)-Newrefinery(0to15.5MW)NewLNGplant(0to17MW)Miningandmineralplants(5to50MW)Timber(2to12MW)Existingchemicalplant(22to26MW)Aluminumsmelterorotherenergyintensiveindustry(0to280MW)NewLNGplant(0to17MW)Existingrefinery(2.4MW)ExistingLNGplant(.4MW)Existingchemicalplant(22MW)Coalgasification(0to10MW)Newrefinery(0to15.5MW)Miningandmineralplants(0to25MW)Timber(2to12MW)LOWRANGEHIGHRANGESelf-SuppliedIndustriesForecastCookInletIndustrialScenariosAssumptionsAtthetimethisforecastandanalysiswasperformed,noISERmid-rangeprojectionsofpopulationsandemploymenthadbeendeveloped.ISERPacificLNGOiltreatmentandshippingfacilitiesSmallLNGBelugaCoal(40employeesinshipping)Newcapital(2,750employees1982-84)Refinery-petroche~ica1complexIIPacificLNG-~ottomfishindustryOilleasedevelopmentNonewpulpmillsorsawmills:y104 EstimateofFutureDemandsUsingthehighandlowpopulationprojectionsandhigh,mid,andlowkwh/capitaassumptions,sixdifferentnetgenerationutilityforecastswereobtained.Fromthese,thehighpopulation/highenergyuseandthelowpopulation/lowenergyusewereusedforthehighandlowrangefinalforecasts.Themid-rangefinalforecastcamefromaveragingthehighpopulation/lowenergyuseandthelowpopulation/highenergyuseforecasts.Inlieuofami4-rangenetgenerationbasedonamid-rangepopulationprojection,theselasttwoforecastswereenoughaliketojustifytheaverageasmid-rangenetgeneration.Nearthecompletionofthisanalysis,ISERprovidedAPAwithamid-rangepopulationprojection.Comparingthepreviousresultswithforecastsusingthesemid-rangeprojections,APAconcludedthatthetwowereconsistentandthatnochangeswerenecessary.Nationaldefenseandself-suppliedindustrialforecastswerecalculatedfromtheassumptionsandsummarizedwiththeutilitiesontable10fortheAnchorage';;'CookInletareaandtabIe11fortheFairbanks-TananaValleyarea.Railbelttotals,bothpeakloaddemandandnetgeneration,aresummarizedontable12.Appropriategraphsfolloweachtableonfigures9and10forAnchorage-CookInlet,11and12forFairbanks-TananaValley,and13and14fortheRaiibeittotals.Trendlinesbasedon1973-1977averageannualenergygrowtharesuperimposedontheenergygraphs,figures9,11,and13.1973-1977AverageAnnualGrowthAnchorage-CookInletFairbanks-TananaValleyRailbelt10.9%7.1%9.9%Historicalandforecastenergyusecomparisonsaresummarizedintable9.ComparisonwithOtherForecastsThissectioncomparesthepresentforecast(1978)withtwopreviousforecasts,andforecastsavailablefromvariousutilities.Thepreviousforecastsincludedthe1976reportandits1977update.The1977updateused1975criteriaandassumptions.Seetable13foracomparisontabulation.Ingeneral,thepresentforecastsproducedvalueslessthanthepreviousones.105 UpperSusitnaProjectPowerMarketAnalysisTable9NETANNUALPERCAPITAGENERATION(KWH)RAILBELTAREAUTILITIESEnergyusepercapitanearlydoubledinbothareasinthehistoricalsevenyears.Growinguseofelectricspaceheating,electriccookinginplaceofgasandoil,andmanyotherpossibilitiescanjustifytheasstmlptionsshown.Again,conservationhasbeenfactoredinthroughdecreasinggrowthrates.1970197719902000.2025Anchorage-CookInletArea4980763016,30021,40035,10014,00017,50022,40012,00013,600 13,600Fairbanks-TananaValleyArea565510,24018,40024,00039,00016,30020,30026,00014,10015,80015,900APA11/78HistoricalHighMidLowHistoricalHighMidLow'I-106 l.aO.le .LU POWER AND ENERGY REQUIREMENTS ANCHORAGE-COOK INLET AREA Upper Susitna Project Power Market Analysis PEAK POWER 1970 1973 1977 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2025 MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MWUTILITY";'1. .,Hi h 620 1,000 1,515 2,150 3,180 7,240g Mid 165 230 424 570 810 1,115 1,500 2,045 3,370Low5256508201,040 1,320 1,520NATIONALDEFENSE High 31 32 34 36 38 48Mid35334130303030.30 30Low292826242418INDUSTRIAL High 32 344 399 541 683 1,615Mid1212253264119199278660Low27597087104250 0 TOTAL ......High 683 1,376 .1,948 2,727 3,901 8,903Mid2122754906329041,264 1,729 2,353 4,060Low5817379161,151 1,4.48 1,788 ANNUAL ENERGY GWH GWH GWH GWH GWH GWH GWH GWH GWHUTILITY High 2,720 4,390 6,630 9,430 13,920 31,700Mid7441,108 1,790 2,500 3,530 4,880 6,570 8,960 14,750Low2,300 2,840 3,590 4,560 5,770 6,670NATIONALDEFENSE High 135 142 149 157 .165 211Mid156161131131131131131131131Low12712111510510481INDUSTRIAL lligh 170 1,810 2,100 2,840 3,590 8,490Mid245701703406301,050 1,460 3,470Low1413123704605501,310TOTAL !:ligh 3,025 6,342 8,879 12,427 17,675 40,401Mid9021,314 1,990 2,801 4,001 5,641 7,751 10,551 18,351Low2,568 3,273 4,075 5,125 6,424 8,061 ~ 7..'~=;n:=~~-.=:-:..:=;~.----~---==..:-==-.-".,.'-"---.-----~"-:'---:"--~-,',..",'__,cc,-~_--~,-"~-=':"::-:"C,'-,.0 --':-:'.c::_!'~.:.~.----,~~~"__,,,~---··c-.•- -~____:'~".,.......,.."", t'%j 1-'- 'g Ii CD \,() LOW ~/ ,~4J~Y(\"'/rr;/' 0)"J / Upper Susitna Project Power Market Analysis ANCHORAGE-COOK INLET AREA ENERGY FORECAST 1000 ,e I I I I I I ,I I I I I 1970 1975 /977 /980 /985 ,1990 /995 2000,2005 2010 2015 '2020 2025 YEAR 2000 40,000 100,000 I 7 i 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 2'0,000 ena:: ::> 0 J: I-10,000...I-90000e:tQl3:8000 e:t 7000 C> 6000-C> 5000 4000 3000 Upper Susitna Project Power Market Analysis . ANCHORAGE-COOK INLET AREA PEAK LOAD FORECAST 3000 4000 10.000 I I 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 2000 ,., LOW I -,.,I (f) )- I- -:t 3:1000-<:(9000 -0 ~800IJ.l 700~1/~....I I 600 500 400 I hj f-'. 300 r- LQ "' C Ii CDI..... 0 200 l-I 100 I ."I.I I J I J .'I I I I 1970 19751977 1960 1965 1990 19P~2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 .2AR --~--,----------,--- Table 11 POWER AND ENERGY REQUIREMENTS FAIRBANKS-TANANA VALLEY AREA Upper Susitna Project Power Market Analysis PEAK POWER 1970 1973 1977 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2025 MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW UTILITY High 158 244 358 495 685 1,443 Mid 56 73 119 150 211 281 358 452 689 Low 142 180 219 258 297 329 NATIONAL DEFENSE High 49 51 54 56 59 76 Mid 44 41 41 47 47 47 47 47 47 Low 46 44 42 40 38 29....TOTAL.... 0 High 207 295 412 551 744 1,519 Mid 101 114 160 197 258 328 405 499 736 Low 188 224 261 298 335 358 ANNUAL ENERGY GWH GWH GWH GWH GWH Gl·m GWH Gl-JR GWH-- --UTILITY High 690 1,070 1,570 2,170 3,000 6,320 Mid 239 324 483 655 925 1,230 1,570 1,980 3,020 Low 620 790 960 1,130 1,300 1,440 NATIONAL DEFENSE High 213 224 235 247 260 333 Mid 203 200 207 207 207 207 207 207 207 Low 203 193 184 175 166 129 TOTAL High 903 1,294 1,805 2,417 3,260 6,653 Mid 443 524 690 862 1,132 1,437 1,777 2,187 3,227 Low 823 983 1,144 1,305 1,466 1,569 ----------------------~..~.-~. FAJRBAN~(S-TANANA·VALLEY AREA / Qpper Susitna ~~}~~p~wYr !r~e~:~~i~T.~~~~ ":>"9'u\c;'r\OJ~'f' 24000 10,000,7 I 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 ,3000 C/)2000 a:I ~.~LOW;:) 0 .J: ...1000~... ~<t 900~ 3:800 <t 700 <.!>-600 <.!> 500 400 300 l-I I hj..... \Qs:: 11 CD 200 l-I I ........ 2025 100 I I I I I I ,!I ,I I I 1970 .--.-.-- hJ 1-'- IQ ~ (l) 1-' l\l t·_~ ':. try ;'-n:. ..·,~·~"I"·'"..··•11; LOW FAIRBANKS-TANANA VALLEY AREA PEAK LOAD FORECAST Upper Susitna Project Power Market Analysis 100 (;"I I ,I ,I I r I I1970197519171980190519901995200020052010 2 0 1 5 2020·2025YEAR 3000 4000 10,000 .,..--------------------------~------. 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 2000 t/) t- t- <C 3:... <C-~(!) W ~I ... w Table 12 POWER AND ENERGY REQUIREMENTS (RAILBELT AREA) Upper Susitna Project Power Market Analysis PEAK POWER 1970 1973 1977 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2025 MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW TOTAL ---- High 890 1,671 2,360 3,278 4,645 10,422 Mid 313 389 650 829 1,162 1,592 2,134 2,852 4,796 Low 769 961 1,177 1,449 1,783 2,146 Average Annual Growth for period %%%%%%%% High 11.0 13.4 7.1 .6.8 7.2 3.3 Mid 7.5 13.7 8.4 7.0 6.5 6.0 .6.0 2.1 Low 5.8 4.6 4.1 4.2 4.2 0.7 ANNUAL ENERGY t TOTAL High Mid Low Average Annual Growth for period High Mid Low Note:The increase addition in 1985 of (280 MW). GWH GWH GWH GWH .GWH GWH.GWH GWH GWH-- 3,928 7,636 10,684 14,844 20,935 47,054 1,345 1,838 2,681 3,663 5,133 7,078 9,528 12,738 21,578 3,391 4,256 5,219 6,430 7,890 9,630 %%%%% %%% 13.6 14.2 6.9 6.8 7.1 3.3 11.0 9.9 11.0 7.0 6.6 6.1 6.0 2.1 8.1 4.6 4.2 4.3 4.2 0.8 in 1980-1985 high range growth rates reflects the the en~rgy intensive self-supplied industry load ·'.,.-,- =-,---=-'--~'.-- ,-~',-_c ~:.~:::~~~":-;.-------:-:-~Z",-.~""---~---~--c=;;:;:.=.'.,~ '-.::;_w"'"-;.:-:-_::--"-:;'~.,~,---_._.,~:;.''__.~:_ hj 1-'- \Q ~ CD .... W LOW Upper Susitna Project Power Market Analysis TOTAL RAILBEL T AREA. ENERGY FORECAST 2000 30,000 40,000 100,000 I :;I 90,000 ao,ooo 70,000 60,000 50,000 20,0001- (f) a: ::> 0 J: I-10,000-I-9000-0/>0 <t 8000?; 7000<t (!) 6000-(!) 5000 4000 3000 1000 I I'I I I I ,I I I I I 1970 1975 1977 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 202.5.YEAR -----.--------~~~c,:"~ ~(, ":l 1-" <Q ~ CI> ..... II:> TOTAL RA~LBELT AREA PEAK LOAD FORECAST Upper Susitna Project Power Market Analysis• 200 4000 3000 10.000 i :;000 , 9000 8000 7000. 6000 5000 2000 I-..,,-./LOW (f) l- I- <t...::::1000...<t 900U1 (!)800 W 700~ 600 500 400 300 20~2015 100 ' "I I I I I I I I i1970. ..___.___.___I Furthercomparisonsconfirmthat·the1976reportforecastwasvalid.Historicvaluesthrough1977fellbetweenthehighandlowrangesoftheforecast.The1976reportwasbasedonloaddatathrough1974andthefollowingassumptionsforutilityloadgrowth:AverageAnnualGrowthRatesHighRangeMid-RangeLowRange1974-198014.1%12.411.11980-19909.0%7.06.01990-20008.0%6.04.0Thefollowingpercentagescomparethisreportandtheaboveassumptions.AverageAnnualGrowthRatesFrom1978UtilityEnergyForecastHighRangeMid-RangeLowRange1977-198014.5%11.58.71980-19909.0%6.84.51990-20007.5%6.04.5The1976reportbasedtheutilityenergyforecastonassumedaverageannualgrowthrates.The1978reportbasedtheforecastonassumedgrowthinpopulationandpercapitaenergyuse.Bothreportsconsideredenergyconservation,but,itwasgivenmorespecificandhigherimportanceinthe1978forecast.Forecastsavailablefromvariousutilitiesaretabulatedontables14,15,and·16.Someweredonebytheutilities,somebyconsultants,andsomebyREA.Alldatawastabulatedand,wherenecessary,extrapolatedaspartoftheStateAlaskaPowerAuthorityRailbeltIntertieStudy.Comparisonsaresummarizedin5-yearincrements.UtilityForecasts1978SusitnaForecastsEnergy(GWH)HighMidLow19803,3443,4103,1552,92019856,2775,4604,4553,630199010,9658,2006,1104,550199517,74811,6008,1405,690200026,55016,92010,9407,070Peak(MW)198072577872066719851,3771,244 1,02183019902,.9861,8731,3961,03919953,8352,6451,8581,29820005,6413,8652,4971,617117 Theutilityforecastsrunhigherthanthoseofthisreport.Nodefinitereasonforthedifferencescanbemadeotherthantheutilitiesassumedhigher-growthrates.Thebasisoftheutilityassumptionswasnotconsideredinthisstudy.118 Table14UTILITYENERGYFORECASTS(GWH)ANCHORAGE-COOKINLETAREAUpperSusitnaProjectPowerMarketAnalysisYearAML&PJ)CEAl:..!MEA3/HEA!:../Total19796341,1092803102,33319806991,2833333742,68919817711,4683954523,08619828471,6794685463,54119839301,9215596204,03019841,0182,1976687054,58819851,III2,5097998005,21919861,2102,8109549095,88319871,3133,1471,1401,0336,63419881,4223,5251,3221,1557,42419891,5343,9481,5341,2908,30619901,6504,4221,7791,4429,29319911,7704,8642,0641,61110,30919921,8915,3502,3941,80111,43719932,0145,8852,7061,97812,58419942,1386,474·3,0572,17313,84319952,2457,1213,4552,38815,20919962,3577,6913,9042,62316,57519972,4758,3064,4122,88218,07519982,5998,9714,8533,11119,53319992,7299,6385,3383,35921,11320002,86510,4635,8723,62622,826Source:Obtainedfromutilitiesin1978forAlaskaPowerAuthorityRailbe1tIntertieStudy.1/AnchorageMunicipalLight&PowerDepartment2/ChugachElectricAssociation3/MatanuskaElectricAssociation!:../Homer.E1ectricAssociation119 Table15UTILITYPEAKDEMANDFORECASTS(MW)ANCHORAGE-COOKINLETAREAUpperSusitnaProj~ctPowerMarketAnalysisYearAML&P1/CEAl;/MEA1/HEAi/Total19791242396764495198013827181785671981152310979465319821673551161137521983184406142129860198420246517114698319852215302071661,12419862415942511881,27419872636553032141,44519882857453432391,61219893098353892671,80019903339354422992,00819913581,0285013342,22219923841,1315693732,45819934111,244630410'2,69519944371,3696984512,95419954611,5057734953,23419964861,6268575443,51219975121,7569505983,81619985391,9011,0266454,11119995682,0481,1086964,42120005992,2121,197752-4,759Source:Obtainedfromutilitiesin1978forAlaskaPowerAuthorityRailbe1tIntertieStudy.1/AnchorageMunicipalLight&PowerDepartment2/ChugachElectricAssociation3/MatanuskaElectricAssociation4/HomerElectricAssociation120 Table16UTILITYENERGYANDPEAKDEMANDFORECASTSFAIRBANKS-TANANAVALLEYAREAUpperSusitnaProjectPowerMarketAnalysisNetEnergy(GWH)PeakDemand(MW)YearGVEA1/FMUYTotalGVEAFMUTotal19794501445941113314419805021536551233515819815601627221363717319826251727961513919019836931828751674220919847691939621864423019858532051,0582064725319869472171,1642285027819871,0502301,28025"25330519881,1552441,3992785633419891,2712591,5293055936419901,3982741,6723356339819911,5372881,825368"6643419921,6913021,9934056947419931,8433172,1604407251219942,0093332,3424807655619952,1903502,5405218060119962,3873672,7545698465319972,6023862,9876198870719982,8104053,2156689276019993,0354253,4607229781920003,2784463.724780102882Source:Obtainedfromutilitiesin1978forAlaskaPowerAuthorityRailbe1tIntertieStudy.1/GoldenValleyElectricAssociation2/FairbanksMunicipalUtilities121 LoadDistributionReservoiroperationstudiesusedinsizingreservoirsneedanaveragemonthlydistributionofannualenergytohelprelatehydroelectricoutputtotheelectricload.ThissectionreportsupdatedaveragesofmonthlyenergyusedivHiedbyannualenergyusewithintheAnchorage-CookInletarea.Thissectionalsoreportsastudyofhourlyloaddistributionintheweeksofwinterpeakload(sameasannualpeak)andsummerminimumpeakload.Bystudyingtheseloadcurvesfromseveralyears,hydroelectricplantfactorisevaluated.(Seecapacitysection).Theutilitysystemshavehadcombinedannualloadfactorsslightlyover50percentinthepastfewyears(54percentin1977asshownonfigure17).Datapresentedintable17showsthatmid-summerpeakshavebeenrunningabout60percentofmid-winterpeaksandthatmonthlyload.factorsgenerallyexceeded70percent.For1977,theDecemberloadfactorwas76percent.Figures15and16illustratethatwinterandsummerloadsarequitesimilar.Theloaddurationcurvesoffigure17presentthesedailylo~dcurvesconcisely.The1976reportcontainsdailyloadcurvesofpreviousyears.Winterandsummercurvesareplottedtogethershowingsimilaritiesofslopeandshape.Theupdateofaveragemonthlyenergy·ispresentedaspercentoftheannualvalueintable18.Averagepercentagesusedinthe1976reportcomparecloselywith1970-77averages.Slightchangesarereflectedinthe"recommendeddistribution"column.Winterloadisabouttwo-thirdsoftotal.122 ------------------- '!Ii;'" JIIII!!II'li! Iii i I;i I!i II I 'I i'I'!I"IITI III" '1!111111111111!llllllllllilllllllll, '"f 11;11.I ,.1 ,. II 1111 I I , I I 1-,1 I I Iii III II ,'.'IIII 11~··h..H+t+·t..·r~··+I I I 1!111'1:~jll~ .,H41·q.··I-+H+t+·I·_·I·--~·-!"II 1111'1 _1.1 ,'+J..i-J-Lfll 'IIII R I111 I I I 11I11-1119111"f 11111111,11/1 fllill 1-·,...··-_....'., Lr-l u lr 1 J I II 'l f.l ~ ii'I';Ii II ",,,;I i Ii i I SYSTEM DAILY GENERATION CURVE ANCHORAGE AREA Upper Susitna Project Power Market Analysis .~._.......; I .-1-.1+-+..-I I ,,I I .I i 1';',":"-',n.0 ••v _Ll II I I I IUlllllllililifilllllR-l+-1 ,II I I· 4 390', 38037036C3C I40330320310 1 1 1 ," 1 1 1 1 1 I.,.• r I I I 'If..,I II I ,J "I ,,,'"..J I I II I II II 1100'711:270t±=t=t=~~~lt+TI=r±~;td~iJ~~260 - !;t 250-:r: <t24OCI~230L-L-+~f-_H_mTt-:-nLl .I:220[J-+f!+~ittttti1MtIJQ210 I- <t200~190b...+--~TJ-+"""i-:rmI I ~180 [iLih+-1-t-l--t;;tr==-.: -..., Co) SATURDAYFRIDAYT\JESDAY I I I 111111"" "III II,!11111111111111111 ;11111'111 !11111111111111 J "1IIIi 1III I,I:I I I'I I Ig 3 6A 9 I I I I I I !til'I I----I··.;I II II II-l !'.- 1111 Iii'II Iii II I i II L N 3 6P 9 36A9N3&P9 3~9'N36P9 WEDNESDAY THURSDAY DAYS OF THE WEEK Io:ONDAYSUNDAY 130rr;-'~l·h1-1 !1 :,~,I,ITT TI IT r rrr 1t r I i II ill i!!Ir1 ~UT I120Ir"J I.r1 i j L r::Ii;r II II !I ,,~Ii I'I!I'·i!I-.r'10L..-['.i "I.::J';!.i .l-t-"II j:il I!I'iI'III'r, 100 I ,::I I,' •J •:111 II I I "I '.!lL!llJ IJ·I·I',I I I I 1;:190 ..;....-"<:...=:-.:_::~'~":.-.:..:"~..-.~::"~:~:-..-"~~.-._=_.:~,,-~;-'.._..e.-.:"c::::....:~.:::,;C:,.-_7::~';'~_~~: SYSTEM DAILY Gf..C:RATION CURVE 'ANCHORAG'E AREA Upper Susitna Project Power Market'Analysls ...... :0' i' 'I II II ' :!Ii .··II!II 'Ii II ill·:'Ii 11'11:,'il I •i :,,:!;',;I I!II I I I!!.II I,j i I'I :"I:II .1 I I!il ,,'I Ii;·iii'I II .,I'I i I I I I ,~I i I I r',II •..r '.ii"I I II!1'1 I,I 'I ",.....i I •!~'.,'I'll II.,I , I II i I I!W!I"i,I'i,'rh,i·I-h 'l r I r-!I L "r II,l !II i i !I rl.,I i J i I I i II,"l 1 1 )r>,'1.r I '11'1'I iii'j f L 'II,:111'II L L L f1-L, I ...-u 1 1'1 n,'.1,Iii!il ll ';:,l h.r I hi,'II I ,t"U':1 I I':i II',I II !,I r h )lr'kJ II-L..:IL,I,"II·!.l ,II II ,i 'Ii '.11 1 ,I 11 111:,1 I II I 'I Oecombo,4.IO,I977 III",!I il';I!'I it-:II I.'I'l r'11 I I Lill i i i :::r ;:":.,~J :I!"I "I I !'i II II ::1:f.lil illJ1 :J I r,I "II...,I I J I,I I ";!I !II f-LJ':J: I I .ilL"J".I :'I 'I :II '!I,I.::I:':,:I I l I 'I I '" "!i j'")I!I I 1 Ii II :1 I ':i i Ii iiid I;'1':'!' )•1\.!',I .I ')'" ',-I'i I ..'".i'\.'i ., I i;" :H'N-f'H"I I I II I·i ' I ~111.~.!I 'Ju,",11.17,1976 I I lff 1T I Ii.I I:! :I'"III Ilnr ~""iQ:Ltf Ii I It+-t I .--HtJ,U~IH-H-ltlH-Hl-Hil+;IH-+-I~;'f'-t-tttt-H:::--t-t-t-+-+~ltt+l==!'r+--t Ii,iJ ..ill I h ~I}l ~.';II"\.!!'...f-\..',i;U· III ,11 Iii "".Iil!',:i\ l..r l[~I !1J !j I',N"i I I i I :1-+-l--HHR-I11'trri='-rl"n I rl'~,I :.'II 'i~,J:'i I I ,~,I !II ,.. II r-t J.J-Il-,"II ,'1 1 1:11,'I Ii!!II" I ,I .II I) I I ' ,Jun.19-2~,1977 ;.11 'I I I,I "I I )h J!l is.ii'I i I rt I ~'!w-~....'+-+-+-''-H'H-+-+-'~';'n+t-H-+jH--+--+-+-I--i )II"I ~.,~ni I ~',!Ii'II ~;Ii!;i I It i ":, llrtl-rll tJtrf '.'1 'i "I,, ,~'I ".!•rW I", ,.'I I,.";',•I I '"I / I ,"'1.,J U-I .I r I!II I,I,I ' "I "',,!!,I ....if' I !:.II 'I I,.'·.:'I I ;I';i ,i'I I ,:,:Ii '",Ii I , I : "I II II I II II:",!:I I II I: I II :1 ',;'II "'.i I Ij II I'II II i III II I ' I I I!II II ;:I , 3 6A S H 3 6P 9 3 6A 9 H 3 6P 9 3 6A 9'N 3 6P 9 3 6A 9 H3 6P 9 3 6A 9 N 3 6P 9 3 6A 9 N 3 6P 9 3 6A D N 3 6P 9 400 3D 36 37 36 3~ 34 3.3 32 31 300 1!?2!1OI- ~20 ~27 ~26 -k2~ ~!?24 I-~23 ~22 ~21 200 IS 16 17 16 I~ 14 13 12 II 100 SUNDAY I.EXCESS Of 1971iOVER1971 LiOtlDAV TUESllAV •WIDNESOAV DAYS OF THE WEEK THURSDAV FilIDAV SATURDAV Figure17ANCHORAGEAREALOADDURATIONCURVE1977UpperSusitnaProjectPowerMarketAnalysis100n---,.-----,r--..-----,.--.,--,---,---,.---,---.,---.27C;0December1977clune1977SummerPeakLoadSummerBaseLoad54%LoadFactor..1.WinterPeakLoad--------------------------650/0WinterBaseLoad10307080604090-20~«w50a..'#.ofO2030405060708090100%TIME125 ~---,---- "---~;:,.-17TF ~,::--.:-~~~!,:?~,~~-?~':-~:._----..-:'--- 'Table 17 LOAD DISTRIBPTION'CHARACTER1STJCS MONTHLY PJ!:AK LOADS:AND LOAD FACTORS' :-,Upper Susitna Proj ect Power Market Analy~i!l. 1971-1972 .1972-1973 1973-1974 1974-1975 1975-1976 1976-1977...J .J .J .J .J....:>:~:>:~JI,~u ~.~0 ~u ~~.0 .>(0 :.t .,.0. "If.{f.If.{f."'"8 >a r.l(j lI)lI)lI)to<:..Il<\ll 1'4 \Do ""\ll 1'4'\0 Il<\ll ""\ll0]'tj 0 11 0 'tl 0 '"0 '"............til ';;/...............III ......3 ......g:;::til :?:III .s ~.s .......III .s s:til ;:;r::.::~>.;0 ::::~g >-""::l ~;;;::l >-,.;"-::::>-,.; :5 VI ~0\C C C\<;C\JI,C k ~~~~C k .~~k .>(C k .:<~k 0 "..::(j lI)..::III c lI),C r.l ..::(j §"(j ~I(j C ~~,<1 C o·~c ~lI)tl :\l lI)c lI)<;::;:Il<":.l ~:;;<1 iii P<..P<..~:::'",.'.$~ I )ctoba::185.8 73 94.1 68 209.2 74 108.8 70 224.3 82 122.7 73 252.9 n 134.3 71 342.2 81 153.0 60 359.8 S8 182.2 63 :ove::-:Oer 222.8 8a 113.0 70 ,236.3 83 124.4 73 269.6 98 .144.6 74 266.2 75 156.0 81 367.6 87 .196.2 74 360.7 88 193.8·75 IClco::-.J:>er 236.2 93 121.1 70 260.7 92 .143.3 74 266.9 97 147·0 74 314.9 89 '170.7 73 420.5 100 226.3 72 40a.3 100 223.4 74. 'an-.lary 254.5 100 135.3 72 283.0 100 153.6 72'274.5 100 159.3 78 354.1,100 180.8 69 394.1 94 213.3 73 376.<:92 209.9 75 Cll:-n:<:::y 22~.5 88 115.3 76 259.6 92 127.5 73 264.5 ·96 139.4 79 316.7 89 166.9 78·383.3 .91 203.5 76 356.8 81 16)..7.76.. a::ch 222.8 87 119.2 70 225.1 80 125.5 75 '249.4 ·91 135.5 73 268.6 .76 156.6 78'342.·1'81 187.6 74 .369.0 90 206.6 76 ,,:::'1 176.7 69 96.6 76 196.4 69 105.4'75 201.6 73 112.4 77 249.0 70 129.2 72 2.85.3 68 159.0 77 331,.4 82 177;0 i3 ay 157.9 62 87.8 75 176.7 62 98.5 75 180.4 66 104.1 78 222.0 63 120.9 73 253.6 60 1<:5.0 77 26<:.6 70 161.3 76 ~:le 152.1 66 78.5 72 165.2 58 87.6 74 176.2 64 95.4 75 209.0 59 113.Q 75 236.1 56 128.9 76 265.0 65 H8.1 78 ~ly 146.8 :S2 76.6 70 162.8 S9.89.8 74.178.9 65 97.5 73 207.0 S8 110.9 72 2<:8.0 S9 134.4 73 257.1 63 141.3 74 :gust lS4.5 54 86.9 75 175.9 64 96.2 73 195.7 71 101.9 70.211.5 61 118.3 73 250.6 60 139.9 75 2'n.8 67 151.7 75 ;,?tCl::'.bCl::I 179.6 .I 64 92.9 72 194.5 n.100.8 72 210.3 77 106.1 70 247.4 70'131.9 74 278.0 66 151.2 76 318.9 79 166.7 73 I .:.~.St.:::,~e:."?cn~..57;7~57.5~64.2~S8.S%56.:}.'I;63.0', ~~.:",:'n-:'c=?eo.k J A ; s to.) 0- l/RClpreSCl:lts sum of loads fo::the Anchora~e (~V~&?,CEA) -and Fai::ban.'ots (FM:1,GVEA)utilities " Table18MONTHLYENERGYREQUIREMENTSASPERCENTOFANNUALREQUIREMENTUpperSusitnaProjectPowerMarketAnalysis1970-19721970-1977UtilityUtilityRecommendedMONTHLoads1/Loads2/Distribution3/Oct.7.98.18.2Nov.8.99.29.0Dec.10.210.29.7Jan.11.310.810.2Feb.9.29.39.1Mar.9.89.49.1,April8.07.87.9May7.27.37.6June6.56.67.0July6.46.77.1Aug.7.17.17.4Sept.7.57.57.7Total100.0100.0100.0SEASONALOct.-April65.364.863.2May-Sept.34.735.236.8,l/CombinedloadsofCEA,AML&P,GVEA,FMUS,forOct.1970-Sept.1972.Basisfor(1975SusitnaPowermarketanalysis)1976report.l/CombinednetgenerationofCEA,fu~&P,APA,GVEA,FMUS,forOct.1970-Sept.1977.UpdatedBasis.11Assumestotalrequirementsconsisting'of25percentindustrialloadsand75percentutilityloads.Updateofpreviousrecommendations. CapacityRequirementsReliabilitystandardswouldbeupgradedasthepowersystemsdevefop.Likelyinclusionsarespecificprov1s10nsformaintainingspinningreservecapacitytocoverpossiblegeneratoroutagesandsubstantialimprovementsinsystemtransmissionreliability.Systemdailypeakloadshapesindicatethataverysmallportionofthecapacityisneededforverylowloadfactoroperation.Someofthegasturbinecapacitynowusedforbaseloadisexpectedtobeusedmainlyforpeakshavingpurposes,eventually.Itwillbeoperatingduringpeakloadhoursforthefewdayseachyearwhenloadsapproachannualpeaktandwillbeinstandbyreserveforthebalanceoftheyear.Figure17,theannualpeakweekdurationcurve,showsthatthehighest10percentloadoccursfor30percentoftheweek(abouttwodays).Withreferencetotheloadfactorevaluationsintheprevioussectiontatrendtowardssomewhathigherannualloadfactorsinthefutureisanticipated.Inadditiontobenefittingfromanyloaddiversityintheinterconnectedsystem,peakloadmanagement(includingsuchpracticesaspeakloadpricing)offersconsiderableopportunityforimprovingloadfactorstwhichinturnreducesoverallcapacityrequirementsforthesysteminanygivenyear.Forplanningpurposes,itisassumedthattheannualsystemloadfactorwillbeintherangeof55to60percentbythelatterpartofthecentury.requirementsaredeterminedbywinterpeakloadallowancesforreservesandunanticipatedloadgrowth.peaksprovidelatitudeforscheduledunitmaintenanceSystemcapacityrequirementsplusThelowersummerand'repairs.Results-Examinationofthewinterloaddurationcurve(figure9)indicatesthatthebaseloadportionisabout65percentoftotalloadandthepeakloadisabout35percentoftotalload.Loadfactorforthepeakportionisabout54percent.Winterweeklyloadfactorsareapproximately80percent.Thisisillustratedinthewinterandsummerloaddurationcurvesbyproportioningtheareasunderthecurvestothetotalpossibleareaifpeakloadoccurred100percentofthetime.Anannualplantfactorof50percentisrecommendedfortheproposedUpperSusi~aProject.Thisislargelyajudgmentfactorandisbasedonthefollowingconsiderations:1.Therecommendedplantfactorprovidesforservingaproportionalshareofbothpeakingandenergyrequirementsthroughouttheyearwhilemaintainingadequateflexibilitytomeetchangingconditionsinanygivenyear.2.AnysignificantreductioninthiscapacitycouldmateriallyreduceflexibiIity•128 3.Asignificantmarketforlowloadfactorpeakingcapacityseemsunlikelywithintheforeseeablefuture.Loadmanagementandadditionalindustrialloadswillprobablyincreasetheoverallsystemloadfactorinthefuture.Itisexpectedthatseveralexistingandplannedgasturbineunitscouldeventuallybeusedforpeakshaving.4.Itisrecognizedthatthemodeofoperationforthehydrowillchangethroughtime•.Intheinitialyearsofoperation,itislikelythatthefullpeakingcapacitywillbeusedinfrequently.Forexample,themid-rangeRailbeltestimatedsystempeakloadfortheyear2000is2,852MW.AssumingloadshapessimilartothecurrentAnchoragearealoads,thewinterpeakweekwouldrequireabout1,850MWofcontinuouspowertocoverthebaseloadsandabout1,000MWofpeakingpower.Loadfactorsofthepeakportionwouldbeabout50percent.Adesigncapacitybasedon50percentplantfactorappliedtoaverageannualenergy(primaryplussecondary)appearsappropriate.Machineoverloadcapabilitycontributestospinningreservesforemergenciesorothershorttermcontingencies.TheCorpsbasednameplatecapacityon50percentplantfactorappliedtocriticalyearfirmenergy.Thissmallercapacity,whenappliedtoaverageannualenergy,resultsina56percentplantfactor.APAfeelsthesmdllerdesigncapacitymayundulyreduceflexibility.129 IPARTVI.ALTERNATIVEPOWERSOURCESIntroductionThissectionexaminesalternativepowersupplyoptionsintheRailbeltinlieuoftheUpperSusitnaProjectandpresentsdetailedcostestimatesofpowerfromnewcoal-firedsteamplants.Alternativespremisedonunproventechnologywereeliminated.AlternativesConsideredPotentialalternativesourcesofelectricpowergenerationareidenti-fiedbyenergytype.Theyarecoal,oilandnaturalgas,hydro,nuclear,wind,geothermal,andtide.SomealternativeswillberestrictedintimeorcapacitybecauseofFederalenergypolicycontrollinguseofenergyresource.Otherswillberestrictedbypracticalavailableenergysupply.Stillothersareimpracticalbecauseoflackoflarge-scaletechnology.CoalEvaluationofcoalutilizationisbasedonmine-mouthcoal-firedsteamgeneration.Potentialadvancedtechnology,suchasgasification,isnotconsideredbecausedevelopmentwouldnotbeavailablewithinthisstudyperiod.Recentstudiesprovidegeneralinformationaboutpossiblelocations,sJ.zJ.ng,andcostofnewsteamp1ants,butAlaskaspecificdataarelimitedandextrapolationshavebeenmadeforlocalconditions.Informationsourcesofspecificinterestforthisanalysisare:studiesbyBattellePacificNorthwestLaboratories(March1978);theElectricPowerResearchInstitute(EPRI)(January1977);andtheWashingtonPublicPowerSupplySystem(WPPSS)(June1977);theFederalEnergyRegulatoryCommission(FERC)determinationofpowervaluesfor'theBradleyLakeProject(October1977)andtheUpperSusitnaProject(October1978);andevaluationsofcostsfortheproposedGoldenValleyElectricAssociation(GVEA)plantadditionsatHealy.Thesearealllistedinthebibliography.Location-Itisassumedthatnewcoal-firedsteamp1antswouldbelocatedneartheBelugafieldsforservicetotheAnchorage-CookInletareaandatHealyforservicetotheFairbanks-TananaValleyarea.TheplantswoulduseknqwnbutundevelopedcoalresourcesatBelugaandtheexistingcoalmining;operationnearHealy.130 Itisrecognizedthatotherlocationsarepossible.Forexample,itmaybepossibletolocateacoal-firedplantontheKenaiPeninsulaandusecoalfromeitherlocalreservesorBeluga.AKenailocationmightofferco-generationpossibilitiesbecausesteamcould:bereusedinmanufacturingbythepetrochemicalindustry.ThepotentialforminingcoalontheKenaiPeninsulaissubstantiallylessattractivethattforBelugabecauseofthincoalseamsandothergeologicfactors.Capacity-Theseanalysesarefortwo-unit200-moland500-MWplants.Thissizerangeisconsideredappropriatefornewcoal-firedplantsthatmightcomeon-linebetween1985and2000.InvestmentCost-Table19summarizesunitinvestmentcostsfornewcoal-firedplantspresentedinseveralrecentstudies.Thedataassembledbyeachentityisquitecomplexwithrespecttooriginalestimatedpricelevels,inflationtoupdatedpricelevels,orprojectedfutureon-linedates,size,pollutioncontrolequipment,location,typeofplant,andotheritems.Pricelevelswerenotadjustedtoauniformdatebecauseof,thecomplexityofdatainvolved.All1977and1978estimatesaresubstantiallyhigherthanAPAestimatesforthe1976AlaskaPowerSurveyandthe1976report.Themostin-depthanalysiswastheWPPSSstudywhichinvestigatedtheconstructionof1,000-MWsteamplantsat10plantsitesinWashington,Montana,andWyoming.Severalgradesandsourceswereassumed.Costswereestimatedforwithandwithoutsulphurdioxidescrubbers(scrubbers).Twenty-twooptionsofplantsites,coalsupply,andtrans-portationwereinvestigated.APA'sestimateofcoal-firedsteamplantinvestmentcostsisderivedfromtheWPPSSstudy.ProceduresforadjustingcoststocurrentAlaskaconditionsaresimilartotheanalysisusedintheappendedBattellereport.ThebasiccostintheWPPSSstudyfora1,000MWsingleunitplantinoperationduringmid-1976was:WithoutScrubbersWithScrubbers$554/kw$684/kwTheWPPSSprocedureincreasedthesecostsforthequalityofthecoalusedandotherspecificpowerplantsiteconditions.Thecoalqualityproblemshavenotbeenconsideredinthisestimate,andtheconstructionsitevariableisassumedtobeincludedintheAlaskafactor.131 --------~---------------....•Table 19.(cont.) COMPARISON OF INVESTMENT COSTS FOR COAL-FIRED STEAMPLANTS Upper Susitna Project ,Power Market AnalYBi~ Source of Estimate Price Level Location Size,MW No.of Units Scrubbers Investment Cost,$/kw PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WESTERN U.S.LOCATIONS Washington Public Power Supply System l/Mid 1976 Pacific Northwest 1,000 2 No 554 Mid 1976 Pacific Northwest 1,000 2 Yes 684 July 1987 Pacific Northwest 1,000 2 No 848 July 1987 Pacific Northwest 1,000 2 Yes 1,056 Electric Power Research Institute §j July 1976 Western U.S.Remote 500 1 No 896 July 1976 Western U.S.Remote 500 1 Yes 1,036 CAl July 1976 Western U.S.Remote 1,000 2 No 830 CAl July 1976 Western U.S.Remote 1,000 2 Yes 960 Idaho Nuclear Energy Commission 11 1984 Boise,Idaho 1,000 2 No 828 1984 Boise,Idaho 1,000 2 Yes 934 above.The 1987 costs include 5 percent annual inflation. operation in 1978. for a 1984 operation date. 1./ :Y l! 4/ 5/ 6' "1 APA's estimate is based largly on the WPPSS study with adjustments for Alaska conditions and size of plant. Future inflation not shown.".. GVEA 1974 estimate assumed units becoming operational in 1983 and 1986.The 1978 estimates assume operation in 1984 at $2,500/kw assuming 7%inflation. Battelle's estimates are based on adjusting both WPPSS and EPRI study data.The higher figures are from the EPRI study.Their studies with future operation dates include inflation. Scrubbers are assumed included in the cost. This is the basic study adjusted by APA and Battelle ~he July 1976 price level includes costs for init" The price level is 1975 costs adjusted to show COS~d Adjustingthecostforthetimebetweenmid-1976andOctober1978us~ngtheHandy-WhitmanSteamplantCostIndexincreasedthecost18.4percent.WithoutScrubbersWithScrubbers$656/kw$8l0/kwAnAlaskafactorof1.8wasusedtoadjustPacificNorthwestcoststoAlaskawagesandconditions:Powerplantssmallerthanthe1,000~~thatwillfitnear-futureAlaskapowerneedshaveasmallertotalcost,butalargercostperinstalledkilowatt.Anadjustmentneedstobeappliedtothecoststocompensateforthelossofeconomyofthelargescaleplants.Thefactorrecom-mendedistheratiooftheplantsizetothe0.85exponent.A500-MWplantthuscosts55.5percentofa1,000MWplant,anda200-MWplantcosts25.5percent.Scalingtheplantsto200MWand500MWgives:Alaskancoalpriceshaveshownsizableincreasesrecently.ThecostofcoalatHealyinSeptember1978was80centspermillionBtu,upfrom62centsin1975.TheFairbanksMunicipalUtilitySystem(FMUS)paysanadditional$6/tonshippingcostforHealycoalresultinginapriceof$1.15permillionBtuatthepowerplantinFairbanks.FuelCostandAvailability-Thereisawiderangeofopinionsabouttheprobablefuturecostofcoal.Formanyyears,coalpricesweresetatasmallmarginaboveproductioncostssothatcoalcouldcompetewithlow-costoilandnaturalgas.Thissituationhaschangeddrasticallybecauseofpriceincreasesforoilandgasandincentivesforpowergenerationandhasresultedinindustrialconversiontocoal.Coalproductioncostsarealsoincreasingrapidlyduetonormalinflationaryandregulationfactors.FERCreportedthenationalaveragepriceofcoalat96.2¢/millionBtuinJuly1977,upfrom80.8¢inJuly1975,and39.8¢inAugust1973.PlantSizeWithoutScrubbersWithScrubbersPlantSizeWithoutScrubbersWithScrubbers$Million167,000207,000$Million300,000372,000200MW$/kw8351,035200MW1,5001,860$Million364,000450,000$Million655,000810,000500MW.$/kw728899500MW1,3101,620134 InOctober1978,ownersoftheBelugacoalfieldstatedthatlargereservesintheBelugacoalfieldmaycompeteintheworldenergymarketatapriceof$1.10to$1.40/mi11ionBtustockpiledontheshoreofCookInlet.Theconclusionswerebasedoncompanystudiesthatincludedgeologicinvestigations,drilling.bulksamplingprograms,"miningpreparation,environmentalevaluation,andnavigationandshippingstudies.FERCestimated$l.OO/mi1lionBtufordeterminationofpowervaluesintheBradleyLakeProject(October1977).Otherrecentstudiessuggestthisisareasonablecurrent(1978)costforBelugacoaldeliveredtoasteamp1antatBeluga,withnoallowanceforpriceincreaseinfutureyears.EarlierAPAstudiesforthe1976FPCPowerSurveyandthe1976Susitnareport,assumed$1.00to$1.50/mi11ionBtuforcoalat1985pricelevelsin1974dollars.Thisincludedconsiderationoffutureeconomiesofscaleoflargerminingoperations.APAanalysesforthisreportarestillbasedonacoalcostof$1.00to$1.50/millionBtuforamine-mouthplantateitherBelugaorHealyformid-1980conditions.Thisiscomparablewith$1.28in1985,estimatedbyGVEAforHealycoalbyincreasingthecurrent80centsby7percentannually.Becauseofthewidediversityofstudiesandopinions,analysesbasedonarangeofcostsare'.presented.Inthisstudy,weareassumingfuelvalueswillincreaseabout2percentperyear--morerapidlythanoverallpriceindexes.Thisisconsistentwithotheranalyses.135 Table20GENERATIONCOSTSFORCONVENTIONALCOAL-FIREDSTEAMPLANTSUpperSusitnaProjectPowerMarketAnalysis1985COSTS(1978PRICES)l/PlantSize,MW200500NumberofUnitsInvestmentCost,Railbelt,$/kwCapitalCost,mills/kwhOperationandMaintenance,mills/kwhSubtotalAssumedFuelCosts,mills/kwhTransmissionCosttoLoadCenterTotalEnergyCost,mills/kwh1994ENERGYCOSTCapitalCost,mills/kwhOperationandMaintenance,mills/kwhTransmissionCost,mills/kwhSubtotalFuel,Inflated2%1985to1994Total221,8601,62038.533.56.55.645.039.11.00/mmBtu1.50/mmBtu10.015.010.015.04.04.03.03.059.064.052.157.1Fuelescalated2%/year1985to199438.533.56.55.64.03.049.042.112.0 17.912.017.961.0 66.954.160.0FuelEscalated7%/Yearfrom1985to1994;CapitalCostandO&MEscalated5%/Yearfrom1978to1994CapitalCost80.069.7OperationandMaintenance13.511.6Transmission8.36.2Subtotal101.887.5Fuel18.427.618.427.6Total120.2129.4 105.9115.11/APAestimatebasedonstudiesbyWashingtonPublicPowerSupplySystemStudies1977.136 CostofPower-Theestimatedtotalcostofelectricpowerthatwouldbegeneratedbyacoal-firedsteamplantalternativetotheSusitnaprojectispresentedintable20.DevelopmentoftheestimatedcostappliedtoaplantineithertheBelugaorHealyareaisbasedontheinvestmentandfuelcostsdiscussedearlierinthis·section,andincludesothercriteriadevelopedinthisreport.Insummary,theparametersare:1.Investmentcostincludesallconstruction,overhead,andinteres.tduringconstruction,andisbasedonupdatingandadjustingWPPSSPacificNorthwestcostsforAlaskaconditions.Annualcapitalcostsarebasedona35-yearlifeand7percentinterestrate.r2.Operationandmaintenancecostsarebasedona.detailedWPPSSpersonnelandmaterialsestimateadjustedforplantcapacityinthesamemannerasinvestmentcosts,increasedby50percentforAlaskaconditions,asdevelopedinthe1976AlaskaPowerSurvey,andindexedfromJanuary1977to'October).978usingtheU.S.DepartmentofLaborindex.3.Fuelcostsofboth$1.00and$1.50/kwarepresentedwithaheatrateof10,000Btu/kwh.4.TransmissioncostsareforlinesconnectingBelugawithAnchorage,andHealywithFairbanks.Theresultingaverageunitcostofelectricpowerfromcoal-firedsteamplantstosupplytheRailbeltmarketarearangesfrom5.21to6.40¢/kwh,varyingwithfuelcostandplantcapacity.Table20.alsopresentsananalysisofthecostofenergywithfuelcostsescalatedat2percentanuallyfrom1985through1994(Susitnaproject,Watanaphaseon-line)andfuelcostescalatedat7percentannuallyfrom.1,985through1994.ComparativeCostofPower(FERC)-FERCevaluatedalternativecostsforcoal-firedsteamplantsatBelugafortheAnchorageareaandHealyfortheFairbanksareaaspartoftheirpowerbenefitstudiesfortheUpperSusitnaProject.•TheFERCestimatesof4.93to5.64¢/kwhareinthesamerangeasthoseestimatedbyAPAfortheAnchoragearea.However,theFERCestimatesof4.02to4.30¢/kwhfortheFairbanksareaarelowcomparedtoAPAestimates.FERCestimatedconstructioncosts(July1978)at$1,475/kwc·omparedto$1,8l0/kwestimatedbyAPA.Inaddition,GVEArecentlyestimatedacostof$1,800/kwforacomparableHealysteamplant.FERCdataarebasedon:1.AnAnchorageareaplantassumedtobeatwo-unit450-MWplantwithfuelcostof$l.lO/millionBtuandaheatrateof10,000Btu/kwh.TheFairbanksplantisassumedtobetwounits,totaling230MW~withafuelcostof$0.80/millionBtuandaheatrateof10,500Btu/kwh.Fornon-Federalcases,theAnchorageareaplantinvestmentcostwasestimatedat$1,240/kwandtheFairbanksinvestmentcostat$1,475/kw.137 2.FinancingisbasedonacompositeAnchorage-Kenaiinterestrateof7.9percentwith75percentfinancingbyREAat8.5percentand25percentbythemunicipalityofAnchorageat6.25percent.TheinterestrateforFairbanksis5.75percentassumingStateofAlaskaPowerAuthorityfinancing.Incomparison,aFederalrateof6.875percentisusedforbothareas,thes'amerateusedintheCorpsofEngineersbenefitanalysis.OilandNaturalGasTheUpperSusitnaProjectinvolvesalargenewpowersupplybeginningin1994,withanexpectedlifeinexcessof100years.APAdoesnotbelievethatoilandnaturalgasarerealisticalternativesforequivalentpowersupplies,particularlyin1Tiewofthetimeframe(startin1994)andverylonglife(through2094).HydroCriteria-EvaluationofpossiblehydroelectricgenerationalternativestotheSusitnaprojectisbasedoncomparing:(1)thepotentialgenerationcapability,and(2)unitcostofpower.Possiblesitesareidentifiedby:(1)singlesiteswithsufficientcapacitytosUPPlYtheprojectedpowerdemands;(2)combinationsofsmallersiteswithinselectedgeographicareasandriverbasins;and(3)acombinationofthebestsitesfromallareasaccessibletotheRailbe1t.Thehydroevaluationconsideredpowerrequirementsrangingfrom600MWto2,290MW,whichare,respectively,thelow-rangeandhigh-rangeprojectedincreasesinRailbe1tdemandsfrom1990to2000.Associatedannualfirmenergyrequirementswouldrangefrom2,670gwhto10,260gwh.Bycomparison,theSusitnaprojectisscheduledtoprovideabout1,573MWcapacityand6,100gwhannualfirmenergy.PossiblehydrogenerationalternativeswereselectedfromtheAPAinventoryofhydroelectricresources.Theinventoryestimatesunitcostofpoweratthegeneratorbusbarbasedon1965-1966costat31/4percentinterestrate.Susitnainventorycostdataindexedto1975pricelevelsgiveunitcostswithin10percentofthatdeterminedforthe1976report.SingleLargeCapacitySitesSevensinglesiteshavesufficientcapacitypotentialtobeanalternativetosupplyingminimumSusitnamarketarearequirements.ThesearewithinamaximumofL4timestheunitcostforSusitnapower.However,landusedesignations(NationalParksandMonumentsandWildandScenicRivers)and/orknownmajorenvironmentalimpactsprecludeconsiderationofdevelopinganyofthesitesatthepresenttime.138 Thesitesare:SiteHolyCrossRubyRampartPorcupineWoodchopperYukon-TaiyaWoodCanyonStreamYukonR.YukonR.Yukon'R.PorcupineR.YukonR.YukonR.CopperR.FirmCapacityPercentEnergyMWofSusitnaGWH/yrCost12,3002,8001406,4001,4606234,2005,040322,3205307914,2003,2007121,0003,2005221,9003,60051Noneoftheabovesitescanbeconsideredavailableresourcesinthe1990'stimeframe.Thisisdueto:(1)HolyCross,Ruby,Rampart,andWoodchopperaremain-stemYukonRiversiteswithknownmajorenviron-mentalproblems,(2)Porcupine,Woodchopper,andYukon-Taiyahavemajorinternationalconsiderations,and(3)WoodCanyonhasaknownmajor,fisheryproblem.SiteswithintheNenanaRiverbasinhavealsobeenidentifiedinpastwork.Theireconomicfeasibilitydependsuponbeingdevelopedasaunit.However,severalofthesitesarelocatedpartiallywithinMountMcKinleyNationalParkandareprecludedfromdevelopment.Inconclusion,nosingle,largehydrogenerationsitesareava~lableasalternativestotheUpperSusitnaProject.CombinationofSmallCapacitySites-CombinationsofsinglesiteswithlesscapacitythantheSusitnaprojectconsistof78siteswithintheMatanuska,Tanana,Yentna-Skwentna,Talkeetna,andChulitnaRiverbasins,thenorthwestdrainageofCookInlet,theKenaiPeninsula,andscatteredsmallsitesandsmallbasinswithintheRai1beltarea.Noneoftheseareascontainsiteswithtotalcapacitypotentialtosupply.minimumSusitnarequirements.(Sitecombinationswiththemostcapacity--theYentna-SkewntnaRiverbasinandKenaiPeninsula--total609MWand646MWrespectively,butwithcostsforindividualsitesrangingfrom1.4to20timesSusitnacosts.)Ifconsiderationisgiventocombiningthebestsmallsitesfromeachofthegeographicareas,12sitestotalling1,276MWarewithintherangeoftwicethecostofSusitna.Onlyone(Chakachamna)isnearSusitnacost(103percent),andhas366MWpotential.ChakachamnaispartlywithinthenewLakeClarkNationalMonument.OtherneworproposedFederallandwithdrawalswouldprecludesiteswithabou~halfofthetotalpotentialofthecombinedsites.Othersiteshavevariousenvironmentalimpactpotentials.Somestreamsthatwouldbeaffectedhavemajoranadromousfishresources.Also,becausethesitesarewidelydistributed,theneededtransmissionsystemswouldbe,fa,irlyextensiveandcostly.139 Summary-Basedonexaminationofindividualsitesandcombinationsofsites,therearenohydrogenerationopportunitiesavailabletoprovideenoughpowertobeanalternativetotheSusitnaProject.Smallindividualsitesmaybeavailable,butwouldsatisfyonlyasmallportionofthemarketareademand.Othersites,withapparentlyacceptablequantityandeconomiccapability,havebeenorwillbeprecludedbylandstatusdesignation'.NuclearNucleargenerationmaybetechnicallyviableinAlaska,butprobablecostandsitingproblemseliminateitasapotentialalternativetoSusitna.Availableinformationindicatesthatinotherstates,nucleariseconomicallycompetitivewithcoal,dependingonspecificconditions.Difficultconditions,possibleseismicandenvironmentalsitingproblems,andreadilyavailablecoalindicatethatnucleargenerationwillprobablynotbeeconomicallyattractiveinAlaskaintheforeseeablefuture.WindTheStatehasshownseriousinterestinwindgenerationtechnologybydevelopingpilotprojectsinthebushcommunitiesofUgashik,NelsonLagoon,andKotzebue.Windseemstoprovidenear-termpowerforsmallcommunitiespresentlydependentonhigh-costdieselgeneration.Thecostandapplicablescaleoftechnologydoesnotmakewindpoweraviablealternativeforlargenear-futurepowerdemands.GeothermalInvestigationstodatehavefoundnohighqualitygeothermalresourcessuitableforpowerdevelopmentinareasaccessibletotheRailbeltarea.GeothermalpotentialisconsideredhighintheWrangell-MountainsandportionsoftheAlaskaRange,andmaybeapplicabletotheRailbeltinthefuture.Atthistime,insufficientdataareavailabletodefinetheresource,evenforappraisalof.thelargeSusitnaprojectmarket.TideThereisalargephysicalpotentialfortidalpowerdevelopmentintheCookInletareaWheretheStateestimatesthatatotalof8,560MWcouldbeharnessed.Apotentialof785MWisestimatedforKnikArmalone,andapproximatelytwicethatamountforTurnagainArm.SeveraldifferentconceptshavebeendevelopedfortheCookInlettidalpotentialbecauseoftheinterestinalternativeenergysources.There·ismerittopreparingagoodreconnaissanceofthisalternative,aspointedoutinthe1976report.However,thescopeofworkinvolvedtodevelopthetidalreSdurce,thelargecostofdevelopment,andtheimportantenvironmentalconsiderationseliminatetidalpowerasareasonablealternativetotheSusitnaproject.140 ConclusionTherangeofpoweroptionsfortheAlaskaRailbeltisnarrowingrapidly.1.Oilandnaturalgasareverysuspectintermsoflong-rangenationalsupplyandavailabilityforuseinpowerproduction.2.Coalisprovingtobefarmoreexpensiveasapowersourcethanpreviouslyanticipated.3.Manyhydroelectricalternativeshavemovedtothe"unavailable"classesbecauseoflandareadesignations.Theremainingarelessdesirableintermsofcostandabilitytomeetprojectedrequirements.4.Nuclearisexpectedtobeasexpensiveascoal.5.Geothermal,tide,andwindareunrealisticplanningalternativesatthistime.141 PARTVII.LOAD/RESOURCEANDSYSTEMPOWERCOSTANALYSESIntroductionAseriesofload/resourceandsystemcostdemonstrateimpactsoftheSusitnaprojectinsystemcosts.analysesweremadetotermsofoverallpowerTheload/resourceanalysisdeterminedprobabletimingofnewmajorinvestmentsingenerationandtransmissionfacilities.Italsoshowsannualenergyfromeachtypeofplant.Theload/resourceanalyseswerepreparedforthesebasicpowersupplystrategies:Case1.Alladditionalgeneratingcapacityassumedtobecoal-firedsteamturbineswithoutatransmissioninterconnectionbetweentheAnchorage-CookInletareaandtheFairbanks-TananaValleyarealoadcenters.Case2.Alladditionalgeneratingcapacityassumedtobecoal-f~redsteamturbines,includingatransmissioninterconnection.Case3.AdditionalcapacitytoincludetheUpperSusitnaproject(includingtransmissionintertie)plusadditionalcoalasneeded.andforthethreeloadlimits(high,medium,andlow).fThesystemcostanalyses,keyedtotheload/resource,determinedcostbyyeartoamortizeinvestmentsandpayallannualcosts(fuel,O&Mexpenses,etc).Inflationratesof0and5percent:vereconsidered.APAdevelopedanumberofthecosts,etc.APAcontractedpreparethereport.keyinputs,e.g.,demands,unitsizesandwithBattelletomakethestudiesandThissectionsummarizeskeyassumptionsandresults.MoredetailedinformationisavailableintheappendedBattellereport.BasicDataandAssumptionsBasicdataandassumptionsusedintheload/resourceandsystempowercostanalysesare:1.Interestrateforrepaymentoffacilities=71/2percent.2.Inflationratesof0and5percent,withconstructioncostsincreasingatinflationrate,andfuelcostsincreasingat2percentaboveinflationrate.3.Systemreservecapacityof25percentfornon-interconnectedloadcentersand20percentforinterconnectedsystems.4.Transmissionlossesof1.5percentforenergyand5percentforcapacity.142 5.Retirementschedulesforproposedgeneratingfacilities(economicfacility1ifetime):l/Coal-FiredSteamOil-FiredSteamGas-FiredCombustionTurbineOil-FiredCombustionTurbineHydroelectricDieselYears3535202050206.Plantfactorsfornewandmostofthe.existingfacilitiesare:PercentHydroSteamCombustionturbineDiesel50755010Thefactorforcombustionturbineswasreducedto10percentinthe"studywhenadequatesteamturbinecapacitywasavailable.l/Seetables3.4and3.5ofappendedBattellereportforestimatedretirementdatesofexistingfacilities.7.Hydroplantsdesignedfor115percentofnameplatecapacityforlimitedreserverequirements.8.Watanapoweron-line(POL)in1994andDevilCanyonPOLin1998.9.ExistingandplannedgeneratingfacilitiesforAnchorageandFairbanksareshownintheappendedBattellereport.10.Newcoal-fired.steamp1antsforFairbanksassumedtobe100-MWunits(firstsix),then200-MWunits.Anchorageunitsassumedtobe200MW(firstfive),then400-MWunits.11.Newcoal-firedsteamp1antstobelocatedatBelugaforAnchorageareaandatHealy(orothersiteswithin100miles)forFairbanks.12.Fuelcosts--seeappendedBattellereport.13.PowerdemandswillbemetbyresourceallocationusingSusitnahydrogenerationfirst,coal-firedsecond,andnaturalgasandoillast.14.Heatratefornewcoal-firedsteamp1ants=10,500Btu/kwh.143 15.TotalinvestmentcostinOctober1978dollars.Plant($million)($/kw)100-MWCoalSteamTurbine245.42,454200-MWCoalSteamTurbine372.01,860400-MWCoalSteamTurbine646.81,617WatanaDam(795MW)and2,020.72,554TransmissionLine470.5DevilCanyonDam(778MW)834.01,072TotalSusitnaProject(1,573MW)3,335.22,12016.Operation,maintenance,andreplacementcosts.Plant100-MWCoalSteamTurbine200-MWCoalSteamTurbine400-MWCoalSteamTurbineWatanaDam(795MW)DevilCanyonDam(778MW)NewTransmissionFacilitiesStudyMethodology($million/yr.)3.765.79.80.740.73($/RW/yr.)37.628.524.50.941/0.941/2.01/Asstatedintheintroduction,threecaseswereanalyzedtodeterminetimingofgenerationandtransmission(G&T1investmentsandtheirimpactontotalpowersystemcosts.Thefirststepinestimatingthecostofpowerfromalternativegenerationandtransmissionsystemconfigurationswastoperformaseriesofload/resourceanalyses.Theseanalysesdeterminedthescheduleofmajorinvestmentsbasedonasswnptionsofloadgrowths,capacityandenergyproductionofthepotentialgeneratingfacilities,andconstraintsastowhenthefacilitiescouldcomeon-line.Theload/resourceanalysesalsodeterminedtheannualpowerproductionfromeachtypeofgeneratingplantinthesystem.Thesystemcostanalysesthendeterminedtheannualcostforamortizingandoperatingthefacilities.Summingtheannualcostforgenerationandtransmissionofeachofthegeneratingfacilitiesgaveatotalcost,byyear,fortheentiresystembeinganalyzed.Dividingthetotal.annualcostbythep,owerproducedgaveanaverageannualcostofpowerfortheentiresystem.1/ThisbreakdownofOM&Rcostsbyprojectfeatureforconvenienceoftheload/resourc~·analysisresultedinslightlyhighercost.Signifi-cancetoSusitnarateis,atmost,lessthan1percent.144 RoundedThermalgeneratingcapacityadditionstotheyear2010fromtheprevioustablesaresummarizedasfollows:Table21SUMMARYOFTHERMALGENERATINGCAPACITYADDITIONSTOTHEYEAR2010UpperSusitnaProjectPowerMarketAnalysisCase1:WithoutInterconnection&WithoutSusitnaAssumedLoadMegawattsGrowthAnchorageFairbanks.TotalLow2,6004713,071Mid4,6008715,471High.8,2001,4719,671Case2:InterconnectionWithoutSusitnaAssumedLoadMegawattsGrowthAnchorageFairbanksTotalLow2,2004712,671Mid4,2006714,871High8,2001,2719,471Case3:InterconnectionWithSusitnaAssumedLoad.Megawat.tsGrowthAnchorageFairbanksTotalLow1,0001711,171Mid3,0003713,371High6,6001,0717,671Note:BradleyLakeandSusitnahydroelectricprojectsarenotincluded.145 ResultsLoad/ResourceAnalysesThescheduleofnewplantadditionsforAnchorageandFairbanksfor1978-2011areshownintheappendedBattellereport.Asummaryofthethermalgeneratingcapacityadditionsisintable21.FurtherdiscussionofthecomputermodelresultsandgraphsarealsoshownintheappendedBattellereport.Underthecriteriaused,completionofconstructionforinterconnectionisscheduledin1986,1989,and1994forhigh,midandlowloadgrowthcases,respectively,withoutUpperSusitna.WithUpperSusitna,thecorrespondingdatesare1986,1989,and1991.SystemPowerCostsAnnualsystemcostsandunitpowercostsarepresentedindetail,bothtabularandgraphically,intheappendedBattellereport.Thefollowingtabulationssummarizethesefindings.Table22showsannual'powersystemcostsforcases1,2,and3,high,midandlowrange,with0percentinflation.ThefirstfewyearsafterWatanacomeson-line,thetotalannualpowersystemcostsincreaseslightly.However,comparingthetotalannualpowersystemcostsforthe1990-2011periodtocase1,constructionoftheSusitnaproject·resultsinasavingsof$2.20billion,or12percent•.Figure18showstherelativesavingsinannualcostforcase3,withSusitna,andcase1,withoutSusitna,f~rthethreeloadgrowthassumptions.Tables23,24,and24asummarizeAnchorageandFairbanksseparatelyplusthecombinedsystemaverageannualpowercostsin¢/kwhfor1978-2011.ThetablesverifythefeasibilityoftheintertieinpowercostsavingsforAnchorageandFairbanks.Bytheyear1000,systemwidepowerrateswouldbe:146 AveragePowerSystemRatesforAnchorageandFairbanks-0%Inflation(¢/kwh)Case1WithoutSusitnaorIntertieCase2WithIntertieCase3WithSusitnaandIntertieCombinedCombinedCombinedAnch.Fbks.SystemAnch.Fbks.SystemAnch.Fbks.SystemHigh6.28.86.61/6.18.06.45.86.25.8Mid6.68.96.9I/6.28.46.65.56.75.7Low7.19.27.51/6.28.86.76.17.86.4.ComparisonofPowerCostsbyYear2000PercentChangeinCostofPowerBelowCase1 -0%InflationCase2Case3CombinedCombinedAnch.Fbks.SystemAnch.Fbks.SystemHigh-1.6-10.0-3.1-6.7-41.9 -13.8Mid-6.5-6.0-4.5-20.0-32.8 -21.1Low-14.5-4.5-11.9-16.4-17.9-17.2FortheAnchorage-CookInletarea,inclusionoftheSusitnaProjectintothesystem(case3)generallyraisesthecostofpowerabovecases1and2duringthefirsttwotofouryearsafterWatanacomeson-line,butlowerspowercostsduringthe1996-2011period.Thisreductioninthecostofpowerissignificantinmostcases.FortheFairbanks-TananaValleyloadcenterconstructionoftheinter-connection(case2)againgenerallyreducesthecostofpowercomparedtowithoutaninterconnection(case1).TheinclusionoftheSusitnaproject(case3)generallyraisesthecostofpowerabovecase2forabouttwoyearsafterWatanacomeson-line,but,aswiththeAnchorage-CookInletarea,resultsinlowerpowercostsduringthe1996-2011period.1/_AnchorageandFairbanksarenotinterconnectedforcase1,the~ombinedsystemrateisshownfor~ademiccomparisonpurposesonly.147 Table 22 C'CMBINED lINQIORllGE-COOK INLET lIND FAIRBA.~-T1INA.~VFJ.JE:l ANNUAL PCWER SYSTEM COSTS -0\INFLATICN .'..~:.',.",'I i ,UIJper Susitna Project Power Market'Analysis ($Million) 9,502.1 15,458.8 CASE III Wit·M1IDIUM HIGH 68.3 80.2 89.0 95.9 203.5 245.3 321.6 383.2 434.0 502.1 510.8 593.7 603.1 682.0 * 735.1 832.8 990.7 i 1,004.1 1,097.1 1,165.6 1,210.4 + 1,222.4 1,253.7 1,355.3 1,426.4 1,482.0 1,583.7 1,662.9 1,686.0 1,769.6 1,853.8 1,913.4 2,018.6 31,076.3 27,548.7 68.3 80.2 89.0 95.9 146.0 147.4 152.1 252.5 257.9 296.7 298.5 338.7 * 382.8 434.0 498.1 503.3 658.0 it 662.7 667.0 688.5 721.4 +. 722.9 719.9 725.9 827.2 834.7 841.4 847.8 915.6 923.9 932.4 941.3 1,010.0 17,682.0 68.4 80.3 89.1 95.9 108,4 107.1 109.3 120.7 119.1 * 173.4 170.8 236.8' 243.5 293.4 290.5 330.9 487.9 it ,487.6 .4a6.0 479.1 485.8 + 506.6 495.9 494.8 487.2 488.6 488.9 488.7 490.2 491.7 493.3 494.9 496.6 10,981:4 HIGH 68.3 80.2 89.0 95.9 203.5 245.3 321.6 383.2 434.0 502.1 510.8 593.7 603.1 682.0 735.1 832.8 847.4 * 951.3, 1,068.2 1,172.2 1,254.6 1,333.7 1,423.1 1,503.9 1,576,7 1,634.5 1,691.9 1,774.8 1,859.8 1,965.2 1,991.8 2,078.9 2,163.1 32,671.7 29,144.1 ' CASE II MEDIUM 68.3 80.2 89.0 95.9 146.0 : 147.4 152.1 252.5 257.9 296.7 .298.5 338.7 * 382.8 434.0 498.1 503.3 536.2 629.8 714.7 737.2 832.8 , 841.7 899.8 907.9 931.3 999.4 1,009.5 1,018.0 1,028.2 1,118.2 1,128.9 1,140.0 1,151.1 19.,666.1 17,442.9 IJ:!Il 68.4 80.3 89.1 95.9 108.4 107.1 109.3 120.7 119.1 * 173.4 170.8 236.8 243.5 256.8 292.5 297.3 339.6 382.7 441.0 517.4 525.1 527.2 600.2 602.7 598.1 601.6 604.1 606.2 632.6 636.2 639.9 643.6 647.5 12,115.1 10,796.4 'HIGH 68.3 80.2 89.0 95.9 203.5 245.3 321.6 383.2 456.8 464.7 547.9 575.3 587.7 667.7 754.9 766.1 865.0 863.6 1,060.8 1,164.7 1,282.6 1,389.3 1,450.2 1,471.2 1,544.0 1,661.5 1,684.5 1,787.1 1,872.1 1,935.1 2,021.4 2,108.5 2,136.6 32,606.3 29,074.6 CASE I MEDIUM 68.3 80.2 89.0 95.9 146.0 147.4 152.1 252.5 257.9 296.7 298.5 362.6 371.0 422.4 5'07.0 512.6 521.1 591.3 701.4 783.7 .819.7 888.2 886.7 894.8 955.3 998.7 1,008.2 1,096.1 1,106.3 1,117.0' 1,127.6 1,139.7 1,209.5 19,905.4 17,658.3 IJ:Ji; 68.4 80.3 89.1 95.9 108.4 107.1 109.3 120.7 119.1 173.4 170.8 236.8 243.5 256.8 292.5 297.3 364.4 404.8 464.4 480.6 511.1 592.9 586.2 588.7 584.1 587.: 590.1 651.9 655.6 659.2 662.4 666.6 670.4 12,290.3 10,811.0 1978-79 1979-80 1980-81 1981-82 1982-83 1983-84 1984-85 1965-86 1986-87 1987-88 1988-89 1939-90 1990-91 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94~'1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 .1999-2000 2000-2001 2001-2002 2002-2003 2003-2004 2004-2005 2005-2006 2006-2007 2007-2008 2008-2009 2009-2010 2010-2011 Total Subtotal 1990-2010 YE.~ Note:Savings to total power systan 1990-20J:O for mid range case 1 of $17,6"58.3 million less case 3 $15,458.8 million 'is $2,199.5 mi1lion~ *Intel:'connection installed t=Nata.'1a on-line +Devil Canyon on-line .,.. ,...-~---r------;Case3Low_---,CaseILowFigure18..oco-~:s1990949820002010YEARUpperSusitnaProjectPowerMarketAnalysisCOMBINEDANCHORAGE-COO£-(INLETANDFAIRBANi(S-TANAf'JAVALLEYANNUALPOWERSYSTEP,,1COSTSVJITHANDWITHOUTSUSITNAt-----t------~---_boe:--1-----~CaseIMediumCaseIHigh.--,.....--t-------'--+------+------1'"--tICase3High1----1------+---.-,t!'-f---4-~,..L-----flCase3Medium240022002000Z18000--J-J~1600~I·1400ent-en01200ufl:W10003=0a.-J800~::::>zZ600<to4002000781980CaseI:without:SusitnaCase3:withSusitna .Table23ANCHORAGE-COOKINLETAREAAVERAGEPOWERCOSTS-CENTSPERKILOWATTHOUR-0%INFLATIONUpperSusitnaProjectPowerMarketAnalysisCase1Case2Case3YearHighMediumLow·HighMediumLowHighMedium~78-79.1.31.31.41.31.31.41.31.479-801.41..5·1.71.41.5'1.71.41.7'80-811.31.6.1.81.31.6.1.8 1.31.881-821.21.61..91.2 1.61.91.21.982-833.22.9·2.23.22.92.23.22.283-843.62.82.13.62.82.13.62.184-854.02.8 2.24.02.82.24.02.285-864.6 4.32.44.64.32.44.62..486-875.04.22.34.8*4.22.34.8*2.387-884.8.4.73h5.3.4.73.75.3.3.788-895.44.43.55.14.43.55.14.43.589-905...14.84.25.74.5*4.25.74.5*4.290-914.8 4.54.15.44.84.15.44.84.191-925..25.04.15.75.34.15.75.34.6*92-935.55.64.75.45.94.75.45.94.493-945.3 5.34.65.75.64.65.75.65.094-955.55.15.35.55.44.9*6.4#6.9#7.3#95-965.8 5.65.75.65.85.46.06.56.896-975.96.26.55.86.45.86.26.16.597-986.06.5.6.35.96.16.66.2+,5.8+6.3+98-99.6.16.36.16.06.56.46.15.86.199-20006.26.67.1•6.16.26.25.85.56.100-016.36.46.96.26.67.25.55.35.901-026.16.36.96.3.6.4'7.25.65.25.602-036.2 6.66.8 6.46.37.15.75.75.703-046.36.56.86.2 6.77.15.65.65.604-056.16.4 6.7 6.16.67.05.8 5.55.605-066.36.97.66.2 6.57.05.95.45.506-076.4'6.87.56.3 6.47.05.85.85.507-086.36.87.5 6.56.97.05.95.85.508-096.46.77.56.36.86.96.05.75.409-106.56.67.56.46.76.95.95.65.410-116.36.97.56.56.76.96.05.9·5.4*InterconnectionInstalled#Watanaon-line+DeveilCanyonon-line150 Table24AVERAGEPOOERCOSTS-0%INFLATION(¢/KWH)FAIRBANKS-TANANAVAJ:..Lh""YAREAUpperSusitnaProjectPowerMarketAnalysisCase1Case2Case3YearHighMediumrowHighMediumWwHigh"!l1edium1Dw78-794.1.4.34.4 4.1 4.34.41.34.34.479-804.14.34.54.14.34.51.44.34.580-814.14.34.74.14.34.71.34.3 4.781-824.04.34.74.04.3 4.71.24.34.782-8'33.84.24.73.84.24.73.24.24.783-843.43.84.33.4.3.84.33.6 3.84.384-855.23.4.3.95.23.43.94.03.43.985-864.75.43.64.75.43.64.65.43.686-875.95.13.35.5*5.13.34.8*5.13.387-885.64.83.05.14.83.05.34.83.088-895.54.83.15.04.83.15.14.83.188-906.56.35.64.75.8*5.65.75.8*5.690-916.56.45.84.65.95.85.4 5.95.891-926.26.25.94.45.75.95.75.77.292-936.87.35.66.35.45.65.4 5.46.993-946.67.15.57.35.25.55.75.26.894-957.46.97.17.06.56.7*6.4#6.8#8.8#95-967.26.97.37.87.76.96.0 6.78.996-977.67.87.18.27.48.36.26.48.697-988.18.37.98.77.89.16.26.97.898-998.'99.19.48.38.78.96.1+6.9+7.6+99-20008.8 8.99.28.08.48.85.8"6.77.800-018.38.79.37.78.38.85.56.67.801-028.0 8.69.37.58.28.85.66.57.702-037.78.49.17.29.08.75.77.37.603-048.59.89.18.0 8.9 8.75.67.27.604-058.29.79.18.7 8.88.75.87.17.505-068.09.59.08.4 8.68.65.97.07.406-077.89.49.08.28.610.15.86.97.407-088.59.-3.9.18.18.510.1-5.96.8 7.408-098.49.29.07.98.410.16.06.87.409-108.29.19.17.7.8.310.2.5.96.77.410-118.09.19.17.68.210.26.06.6 7.4*InterconnectionInstalled#Watanaon-line+DevilCanyonon-line151 1Table24aCOMBI,NEDANCHORAGE-COOKINLETANDFAIRBANKS-TANANAVALLEYAREAAVERAGEANNUALPOWERCOST1/(¢/KWH)UpperSusitnaProjectPowerMarketAnalysisCase2Case3YEARHIGHMEDIUMLOWHIGHMEDIUMLOW1978-791979-801980-811981-821982-831983-841984--851985-861986-874.90*4.90*1987-885.315.311988-895.075.071989-905.564.79*5.564.79*1990-915.245.065.245.061991-925.525.395.525.395.141992-935.585.835.58 5.834.891993-945.945.575.94II5.57II5.35II.1994-955.71 5.635.28*6.676.917.591995-965.926.195.696.256.52 7.251996-976.186.616.296.35 6.176.931997-986.34 6.447.086.306.016.561998-996.366.886.916.14+5.96+6.39+1999-20006.376.616.685.845.686.422000-20016.47 6.877.545.705.506.232001-20026.536.757.515.895.406.162002-20036.556.757.395.935.996.022003-20046.517.067.375.905.905.982004-20056.476.967.336.055.805.932005-20066.526.857.306.11'5.715.882006-20076.586.767.555.976.025.852007-20086.71/.187.536.045.94 5.822008-20096.577.097.516.115.865.792009-20106.627.01 7.506.105.785.76'2010-20116.676.927.486.236.075.741/CaseInotinterconnected,thereforecombinedsystemratedoesnotapply.*InterconnectionInstalledIIWatanaon-line+DevilCanyonon-line152 PartVIII.INVESTMENTCOSTSConstructioncostsforpowerproducingfacilitieswerepreparedbytheCorpsofEngineers(Corps);thoseforthetransmissionfacilitesbyAlaskaPowerAdministration(APA).APApreparedestimatesofinterestduringconstructionbasedon71/2percent.CorpsestimatesincludealternativedesignconceptsforDevilCanyon--thin-arch,asorginallyproposedbyBureauofReclamation(USBR),andtheconcretegravitydesign,whichismorecostlyandconservative.Transmissionestimatesarebasedonsameplanpresentedin1976report,withcostsupdatedbyindexing.Currentcostsfortransmissionfacilitiesarebasedonindexingconstructioncostspresentedinthe1976report(January1975prices)tocurrentlevels(October1978prices)byapplyingafactorof1.38toclearingandrights-of-way,1.33toallothertransmissionlinecomponents(accessroads,structures,etc.),and1.28tosubstationsandswitchyards,resultinginanoverallfactorofabout1~32.Theclearingandrights-of-wayfactorisbasedonexperienceoftheAlaskaDepartmentofTransportationandonrecentexperienceoftheUSBRandBonnevillePowerAdministration(BPA).The1975pricesarebasedon.componentpricesfromBPAwithanincreaseof90'percentforlaborand10percen,tformaterialtransportationfromthePacificNorthwesttoAlaska.Examinationindicatedthatthesefactorsarealsovalidforthisanalysis,butshouldbereevaluatedifmoredetailedcostestimatesaremadeinfutureyears.Transmissionsystemcostsaresummarizedintable25.Investmentcostsarecalculatedbyaddinginterestduringconstructionatthe-annualrateof71/2percenttoconstructioncostspresented·previously.Theprojectscheduleincludes(1)first-stageconstructionofWatanadamandpowerplantandthetotalprojecttransmissionsystem,and(2)second-stageDevilCanyondamandpowerplant.ThetransmissionsystemwillbecompletedaboutthreeyearsbeforecompletionofWatanatodevelopinterconnectionbenefitsbydeferringofrequiredsteamplantcapacity(discussedinPartXIII,LoadResourceAnalysis).Table26summarizestheinvestmentcostsrequired.153 Table25CONSTRUCTIONCOSTSUMMARYUpperSusitnaProjectPowerMarketAnalysisItemTransmissionLinesClearingRight-of-WayAccessRoadsLineStructuresSubtotal-T.L.SWitchyardsandSubstationsFairbanksSubstationTalkeetnaSubstationAnchorageSubstationHealySWitchyardWatanaSwitchyardDevilCanyonSwitchyardSubtotal-S.S.TotalRounded154ConstructionCost($1,000-10/78)SystemNo.5$3,3505,00019,110242,190$269,650$11,71010,10015,8904,7706,36019,660$68,490$338,140$338,000 Table26INVES'IMENTCOSTSlH1ARY($/MILLICN)Upp~rSusitnaProjectPowerMarketAnalysisStagePowerProductionFacilitiesConstructionInterestduringConstructionInvestmentPowerTransmissionFacilitiesConstructionInterestduringConstructionInvestmentWatana(1st)1,427.0603.72,030.7338.0132.5470.5Devilcanyon(2nd)665.0168.6833.6Total2,092..0«772.32,864.3338.0132.5470.5TotalInvestment-Susitna1552,501.2833.63,334.8. PARTIX.OPERATION,MAINTENANCE,ANDREPLACEMENTPLANANDCOSTSOperationandMaintenanceThisupdatesinformationfurnishedinthe1976report.Operation,maintenance,and~eplacementcostswereindexedforthisreport.PlanDescriptionThisplanassumesFederaloperationofthefacilities.Theplanassumestheheadquarters.andmainoperationscenterfortheSusitnaprojectwillbenearTalkeetnaoratsomeotherequallyaccessiblepoint.EquipmentatthecenterwillremotelycontroltheoperationofthegenerationandtransmissionsystemandoperationofDevilCanyonandWatanadamsandreservoirs.Electrician/operatorsandmechanic/operatorswillbelocatedatthepowerplantstoprovideroutinemaintenanceandmanualoperationwhenrequired.Specializedpersonnel,suchaselectronictechniciansandmeterandrelayrepairmen,willservicebothpowerplantsandthesubstationsandswitchyardsfromtheprojectheadquarters.Projectadministration,includingsupervisionofpowerproduction,waterscheduling,andtransmission.facilities,willalsobefromtheprojectheadquarters.Majorturbineandgeneratorinspectionandmaintenancewillbedonebyelectricians,mechanics,engineers,andotherexperiencedpersonnelfromAPA.Manufacturers'representativesandotherspecializedexpertisewillbeconsulted.AlaskaPowerAdministration's(APA)headquartersofficeinJuneauwillhandlepowermarketing,accounting,personnelmanagement, andgeneraladministrativeservices.Transmissionlinemaintenancewillbeperformedbytwolinecrews,withassistancefromtheexistingEklutnaProjectlinecrew.TransmissionlinemaintenancewarehousesandpartsstorageyardswillbeatDevilCanyonorWatana,approximatelymid-waybetweenDevilCanyonandFairbanks,andattheprojectheadquarters.Linecrewpersonnelwillbestationedalongthelinesatdesignatedmaintenancestationsandatthemajorsubstationstoprovideroutinelinepatrolandmaintenancetasks.Crewsfromthroughouttheprojectwillbeassembledformajorwork.Visitorfacilitieswithprovisionsforself-guidedpowerplanttourswillneedassistancefromoperationpersonnel.Project-relatedrecreationfacilitieswillrequirecooperationbetweenFederal,State,andlocalinterests,andareassumedtobemaintainedbyaStateorlocalentity.156 Projectoperation,maintenance,andadministrationcouldbecombinedwiththeexistingEklutnaProject.EklutnacouldbesupervisorycontrolledfromtheSusitnaprojectoperationscenterwithelectrician/operatorsandmechanic/operatorsstationedatEklutna.Itisestimatedthatapproximately$100,OOO/yearcouldbesavedbyjointoperation•.MarketingandAdministrationMarketingandadministrationincludethreemainfunctions:1.AdministrationPersonnelmanagementPropertymanagementBudgetingMarketingpolicyRateandrepaymentstudies2.AccountingCustomerbillingCollectingAccountspayableFinancialrecordsPayroll3.Marke~ingRateschedulesPowersalescontractsOperatingagreementsSystemreliabilityandcoordinationPartofthisworkwouldbecarriedoutbytheproject,withoverall·administrationandsupportservicesprovidedbytheAPAheadquartersstaff.AnnualCostsTheestimatedannualcostsforoperation,maintenance,marketing,andadministrationarebasedonitemizedestimatesofpersonnel,equipment,supplies,andservicesneededtodothework,withaprovisionforcontingencies.TheestimateassumesFederalclassifiedpersonnelprovidingmanagementandadministrativefunctionsandwagegradepersonnelperformingtechnicaloperation.andmaintenanceactivities.Classifiedsalariesarebasedonamid-graderate.WagegraderatesarebasedonthoseineffectintheAnchorageareaandincludebasichourlyrates,benefits,andovertime.157 Costsofsupp)..ies,equipment,andpersonnelrequirementsarebasedonBureauofReclamation(USBR)guidelinesandtheexperienceoftheEklutnaandSnettishamProjects.TheEklutnaProjectisfullystaffed,.includingalinecrew,whichhasbeeninoperationsince1955.TheSnettishamProjectisisolated;itisseparatedfromtheJuneauloadcenterby45milesofruggedterrainandwater.Amaintenancecrewresidesandperformsroutinemaintenanceatthepowerplant;projectoperationsareremotelycontrolledfromJuneau.TheSusitnaprojectwouldhavesomecharacteristicsofbothprojects.Itemizedcostsforoperation,maintenance,marketing,andadministrationarepresentedintable27.Costsbymajorcategoryandnumberofpersonnelaresummarizedintable28.ReplacementsTheannualreplacementcostprOVl.Sl.onestablishesasinkingfundtofinancereplacementofmajoritemswhichhaveanexpectedservicelifeoflessthanthe50-yearprojectrepaymentperiod.Theobjectiveistocovercostsandensurefinancingforatimelyreplacementofmajorcostitemstokeeptheprojectoperatingefficientlythroughoutitslife.ThereplacementcostisbasedonfactorsdevelopedfromUSBRexperience.Thefactorsapplytothetotalpowerplant,substation,switchyard,transmissiontower,fixtures,andconductors.Replaceablesincludegeneratorwindings,communicationequipment,asmallpercentofthetransmissiontowers,anditemsinthesubstationandswitchyards.Itemscoveredbyroutineannualmaintenancecostsincludevehicles,smallbuildings,camputilities,andmaterialsandsupplies.Majorfeatures,suchasdamsandpowerplantstructures,areconsideredtohaveserviceliveslongerthanthe50-yearrepaymentperiod.Theircostsarenotcoveredbythereplacementfunds.Right-of-wayandclearingcostsarenotincluded.The7~percentinterestrateusedforprojectrepaymentwasusedtoestablishthereplacementsinkingfund..Table29presentscalculationsoftheannualreplacementfund.Thefollowingtabulationsummarizestheoperation,maintenance,and.replacementcosts:AnnualOperationAnnualTotalandMaintenanceReplacementOM&R$1,000$1,000$1,000.Watana$2,360$260$2,620DevilCanyon530170700Total$2,890$430$3,320Pricebase-October1978.158 Table27ANNUALOPERATION&MAINTENANCECOSTESTIMATEUpperSusitnaProjectPowerMarketAnalysisOctober1978PricesDamandPowerplant,TotalTransmissionSystemGradeAnnualPersonnelNumberorRateCostSupervisory&ClassifiedProjectManager1GS:"'14$35,000AssistantProjectManager1GS-1329,500ElectricalEngineer1GS-1224,800MechanicalEngineer1GS-1224,800Supply&PropertyClerk1GS-917,100AdministrativeAssistant1GS-714,000Clerk-Steno1GS-511,300SubtotalSupervisory7$156,500&ClassifiedWageGradeElectrician217.00/hr.$70,720Mechanic217.OO/hr.70,720HeavyDutyEquip.Operator117.OO/hr.35,360Laborer213.00/hr.54,080MeterRelayMechanic117•OO/hr.35,360ElectronicTechnician117.00/hr.35,360PowerplantOperator617.00/hr.212,160Ass't.PowerplantOperator415.00/hr.124,800SubtotalWageGrade19$638,560LineCrewAllowancesC.O.L.A.-Sup.&Classx25%ShiftDifferentialSundayPayOvertimeGovernmen~ContributionsLongevityN.A.ForemanLinemanEquipmentOperatorGroundmanSubtotalLineCrewSubtotal-AllowancesTOTALPERSONNELCOST69-7380 -80-112424123815919.00/hr.$79,04017.00/hr.141,44017.00/hr.70,72017.00/hr.141,440$432,64039,13022,43012,03032,00096,410$202,000$1,429,700 Table27(cont.)ANNUALOPERATION&MAINTENANCECOSTESTIMATEMiscellaneousTelephoneOfficialtravelVacationtravelSupplies,Services&Maintenance--PowerplantSupplies&Services--Vehicles&EquipmentEmployeetrainingLinesprayGovernmentcampmaintenanceSubtotal-MiscellaneousAnnualCost$10,00019,00019,000125,00050,0006,00025,00019,000$273,0001EquipmentOperation,Maintenance,andReplacementInitialServiceNo.CostLifeTractorwithDozer1$150,00010$15,000Loader175,000107,500Maintainer175,000107,500Pickup1080,000711,400Sedan15,0007700Tractor&Lowboy175,000107,500Dumptruck125,000102,500Flatbed220,00072,900Firetruck125,000102,500Snotrac216,00072,300Backhoe135,000103,500Crane,50ton1200,0002010,000HydraulicCrane,20ton1100,000205,000Linetruck4200,0001020,000Subtotal-Equipment$98,300APAHeadquartersMarketingandAdministration165,000Subtotal1,966,000Contingencies(20%+)394,000TOTALWATANA&TRANSMISSION$2,360,000160 Table27(cont.)ANNUALOPERATION&MAINTENANCECOSTESTIMATEDevilCanyonDamandPowerplantPersonnelWatanaandDevilCanyon,supervisorycontrolledfromaremote'operation-dispatchcenter.OvertimeGovernmentContributionsForemanPaySubtotalMiscellaneousVacationtravelEmployeetrainingSupplies,Services&MaterialsSuppliesandServicesSubtotal-MiscellaneousIncreasebasestaffforAssistantoperatorsElectriciansMechanicsMaintenanceSubtotalSubtotal-PersonnelEquipmentDevilCanyon.2@15.00/hr.2@17.00/hr.1@17.00/hr.1@15.00/hr.$62,40070,72070,72031,200$235,04012,00021,1606,500$39,660$274,700$3,8001,200112,50013,400$130,900PickupSnowtractorInitialCost2 @16,0001 @10,000Service/Life77$2,3001,100Subtotal-EquipmentAPAHeadquartersMarketingandAdministrationSubtotalDevilCanyonAdditions$$3,40035,000444,000Contingencies(20%+)TOTALDEVILCANYONO&MADDITIONTOTALWATANAANDTRANSMISSIONTOTALSUSITNAPROJECT16186,000$530,0002,360,000-$2,890,000 ::::::::=::::=~~---::"';.~;~~':";""':'::~~~__......46~::(-'-~:::_,,~::~-~.£~.:::~- Table 28 OPERATION AND MAINTENANCE COST SUMMARY Upper Susitna Project Power Market Analysis ""·J~-'-""~-,-,·._·_:.··'::'_'o·_··_ Personnel: Watana &Trans- mission System Number Dollars Devil Canyon Number Dollars Total Devil Canyon, Watana &Transmission Number Dollars ~ ....". Salaries/Wages,Allowances Classified Personnel 7 Wage Board Personnel 31 Miscellaneous: Telephone,Travel,Supplies, Services,Training,Line Spray,Camp Maintenance Equipment: Annual cost Replacement Marketing and Administration APA Headquarters Subtotal Contingencies (20%+) TOTAL - $1,429,700 273,000 98,300 165,000 $1,966,000 394,000 $2,360,000 o 7 $274,700 130,900 3,400 35,000 $444,000 86,000 $530,000 7 38 $1,704,400 403,900 101,700 200,000 $2,410,000 480,000 $2,890,000 1'~i'\}"">'i";CC_ Table 29 REPlaCEMENT COSTS Upper Susitna Project Power Market Analysis Replacement factors are based on 7 1/2 percent interest rate. Construction cost based on the portion of the feature'subject to replacement. PARTX.FINANCIALANALYSIS,!Ii''f,;1i!IiThispartestimatesthemarketforprojectpowerandevaluatespowerratesneededtorepaytheinvestmentinpowerfacilities.Powermarketsizeisinmoredetailint~isstudythaninthe1976report.Likewise,costsareslightlymoredetailed.TheUpperSusitnaProjectisprimarilyforhydroelectricpowergenerationandtransmission•.Minorportionsof'projectcosts(lessthan1percent)wouldbeallocatedtootherpurposes,suchasrecreationandfloodcontrol.Projectfinancialviabilityistheessentialelementindemonstratingfeasibilityofthepowerdevelopment.Therepaymentrateisinfluencedprincipallybysizeofthemarket,amountofinvestment,andapplicableinterestrates.Operation,maintenance,andreplacementcostsareaminorpartoftotalannualcosts;theyinfluencetheseratesinsignificantly.Ifratesneededtorepaythehydroprojectareattractiveincomparisontootheravailablealternatives,theprojectiseconomicallyjustifiable.The1976reportcomparedthecostsoffivedamandreservoirplansfordevelopingtheSusitnaRiverhydroelectricpotentialandfoundallcostswerewithina15percentrange.Therefore,thescopinganalysiswasnotrepeatedforthisstudy.InadditiontoanalyzingthebasicSusitnaprojectplan,variationswerealsoanalyzedforsensitivity.Theseincludedinterconnectionwithadditionalserviceareas,differenttimingforinterconnectionbetweenAnchorageandFairbanks,useofthemoreexpensiveDevilCanyongravitydamins.teadofthearchdam,lowloadgrowth,andthe-effectofinflation.Inaddition,theload/resourceandsystemcostanalysesexamineimpactoftheSusitnaProjectonoverallsystemcosts.MarketforProjectPowerUpperSusitnawilloperateaspartofahydro/thermalpowersystem.The1976reportassumedthemarketforSusitnafirmenergyas75percentofthemid-rangeutilityrequirements.Averageratesforfirmenergywereestimatedonthatbasis.Forthisanalysis,themarketforfirmenergywasassumedtobeapproximatedbyloadgrowthafterSusitnapowerbecomesavailable,plusmarketmadeavailablethroughretirementofolderplants.ThepalanceoftheSusitnaenergyisassumedmarketableassecondaryenergyforfuelreplacement,aslongasallenergyfitsundertheloadcurve.Avalueisassignedformarketablesecondaryenergybasedonestimatedfuturecoalcosts.Theactualvalueisprobablysignificantlyhigher.164 Thevalueoffuelreplacementenergyisthesameasthatusedintheloadresourceanalysis,whichis$1.00to·$1.50/mi1lionBtuby1985.Thisisbasedontheconceptthatlarge,efficientcoalmineswillbedevelopedintheBelugaareabythen.Thepriceisescalatedat2percentperyearabovethezeroinflationratefrom1985to1994,resultinginacostof$1.20and$1.80/millionBtu's.Table30summarizestheestimatedmarketforSusitnaenergyusingthesecriteria.CostofProjectTable31summarizestheconstructioncost,interestduringconstruction,operation,maintenance,andreplacementcostsforDevilCanyonandWatanaphases.ConstructioncostswerefurnishedbytheCorpsforanOctober1978pricelevel.InterestduringconstructionwascalculatedfromCorpsconstructioncashflowestimateswithinterestaccumulateduntiltheprojectbecomesoperational.OM&RcostswereupdatedfromAPAearlierestimates.Costshav~increasedfromthe1976reportforseveralreasons.Table32presentsasummarycomparisonofthecostfactors.Interestrateshaveincreasedfrom65/8to71/2percent.DesignandcostchangesweremadebytheCorpsasaresultoffoundationdrilling.Costs·wereupdatedfortheDevilCanyondamandthetransmissionlinebyindexingprocedures.Themajorchangeinoperation,maintenanae,andreplacementcostswasduetoinflationinpersonnelwagesandprovisionsforcon-tingenciessuchasunlisteditemsandstateoftheart.Watana'sconstructionperiodwasextendedfrom6yearsto10years,increasingitsconstructionperiodfrom10yearsto14years.Therevisedprojectinvestmentcostis89percenthigherthaninthe1976report.165 TABLE30MARKETFORUPPERSUSITNAPOWERANCHORAGEANDFAIRBANKSAREASUpperSusitnaRiverProjectPowerMarketAnalysisMEDIUMESTIMATEYear1994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006FirmEnergySalesGWH6331,3852,2312,8733,5314,2444,6865,0555,6305,9836,3526,7676,787FuelReplacementSales·GWH2,4012,0431,1975552,8722,5432,1011,7321,11580423520oCOMPARISONWITHTOTALAREAPOWERREQUIREMENTSYear199520002005EstimatedAnchorageandFairbanksEnergyAnnualEnergyMillionKWH10,32313,28815,083EstimatedMarketforNewHydroelectricPowerAnnualEnergyMillionKWH1,385(13)1/4,686-(35)1/6,767-(45)J.:..I1/PercentoftotalarearequirementsDataSource:APALoad/ResourcesAnalysisMediumLoadGrowthEstimates,EnergyLossesareincluded.166 Table31·INVESTMENTANDOM&RCOSTSUMMARYUpperSusitnaProjectPowerMarketAnalysisUnitCompletionDateWatana1994Costs-$1,000DevilCanyon1998TotalSystemPowerProductionFacilitiesConstructionCostsInterestDuringConstructionInvestmentCostTransmissionFacilities~/ConstructionCostsInterestDuringConstructionInvestmentCostTotalSystemInvestmentCost1,427,000603,7002,030,700338,000132,500470,500665,0001/168,600833,6002,864,300470,5003,334,800AnnualOperationandMaintenanceAnnualReplacementAnnualOM&R2,8904303,320PricelevelisOctober1978.InterestrateforrepaymentpurposesinFY1979is7-1/2%.1/CostsareforarchdamplanatDevilCanyon.2/Transmissionsystemassumedonlinein1991.167 AverageRateDeterminationTable33summarizestheestimatedaveragefinnenergyrateforfirmenergyneededtorepayprojectfacilitiesinvestmentformid-rangeloadgrowthconditions.Themethodused~ssimilartothatusedinthe1976report.PresentFederalcriteriafor.powerproducingfacilitiesrequirerepayment·ofprojectcosts,withinterest,within50yearsaftertheunitbecomesrevenueproducing.TheapplicableinterestrateforFiscalYear1979is71/2percent•.Revenueswerecreditedtotheprojectfromsaleofsecondaryenergyatafuelreplacementrateof1.2¢/kwhduringearlyyearsofprojectoperation.Theaveragerequiredrateforrepaymentover50yearsafterthelastunitisinstalledis4.7¢/kwh.Totalrepaymentperiodwillbe54yearswithDevilCanyoncomingon-linefouryearsafterWatana.Alternativestothebasicprojectplanwereanalyzedtodetermineeffectsonaveragepowerrates:1.DevilCanyongravitydaminlieuofthethin-archdam:Investmentcostincreased$204.9million.Averagerateforfirmenergyincreasedtoatotalof4.9¢/kwh.~.TransmissioninvestmentdeferreduntilWatanaphasecomeson-line(1994):Watanaphaseinvestmentreduced$76million.AverageratereducedO.I¢/kwhtoatotalof4.6¢/kwh.3.Midloadgrowthcase,5percentinflation:Investmentcostincreased$3.598billion.Revenueneedsincreased$243millionannually.Firmenergyisthesameforallmidgrowthcases.Averagerateforfirmenergyincreased4.7¢/kwhto9.7¢/kwh.4.Lowloadgrowthcase:Revenueneedssameasformidrangegrowthcase.Firm.energysalesdecreased;fuelreplacementsalesincreased.Averagefirmenergyrateincreased1.7¢/kwh.AllCorpsplansarebasedoncompletingWatanafirst,followedbyDevilCanyonfouryearslater.Thisisappropriateformidrangeandhighrangegrowthconditions,butiflowrangeconditionsremain,itmaymeantheDevilCanyonunitcouldbedeferredafewyears.168 PowerMarketingConsiderationsTheaveragerateisusefulforcomparingtheproposalwiththealternatives.Actualmarketingcontractswilllikelyincludeseparateprovisionsfordemandandenergycharges,wheeling'charges,reserveagreements,andotherfactors.Therearesomebuilt-ininequitiesforanymethodofpr~c~ng.WhatamountstoapostagestamprateisusedbymostutilitiesandlargeFederalsystems.Thatis,powerratesarethesameforalldeliverypointsonthesystem.Actualcostsvarywiththedistance,size,andcharacteristicsofload--itismorecostlytoserveasmallloadseveralmilesfromthepowersourcethantoservealargeloadnearby.Policiesvaryfromsystemtosystemasto"hookup"costsbornbythecustomers.169 Table32COSTSUMMARYCOMPARISONWITH1976INTERIMFEASIBILITYREPORTUpperSusitnaProjectPowerMarketAnalysis1DifferenceItem,(Costs$Million)InterestRateforRepaymentConstructionPeriodWatanaDevilCanyonTransmissionSystemTotal1976InterimFeasibilityReport6-5/8%6yrs.5310yrs.1978MarketabilityAnalysisUpdate7-1/2%10yrs.8314yrs.Amount+7/8%+ 4yrs.+3o+4yrsPercent+13+67+60o+40ConstructionCostWatana,DevilCanyonTransmissionSystemTotalIntere~tDuringConstructionWatanaDevilCanyonTransmissionSystemTotalInvestmentCostWatanaDevilCanyonTransmissionSystemTotalAnnualCostforRepaymentofInvestmentAnnualEquivalentOM&RTotalAnnualEquiv.Cost832.0432.0256.01,520.0165.457.225.4248.0997.4489.2281.41,768.0113.342.27115.611,427.0665.0338.02,430.0603.7168.6132,.5904.82,030.7833.6470.53,334.8239.203.14242.34+595.0+233.0+82.0+910.0+438.3+111.4+107.1656.8+1,033.3+344.4+189.1+1,566.8+125.86+0.87+126.73+7.2+54+32+60+265+195+422+265+104+70+67+89+111+38+110(LessSecondaryEnergySales1-(FuelReplacementSales)~TotalNetAnnl;la1Equiv.CostAnnualEquiv.EnergyGWH,1.1TotalAnnualEquiv.EnergyCost-¢/KWH1:/ME!dianloadgrowth5.77109.845,2182.1111.34231.004,9234.69+5.57121.16-2952.58+97+110-6+123Note:TotalenergyduringPeriodofanalysisisthesameinbothreports.Differenceisduetovariationinloadbuild-up.170 ------------------------------------~~~··~,"~4 Table 33 AVERAGE RATE DETERMINATION (WATANA AND DEVIL CANYON) Upper Susitna Project Power Market Analysis Project Costs $1.000 1994 PW Costs $1.000 Project Energy Sales Million KWH Revenue Producing.Firm Fuel Replacement 1994 PW Fuel Replace- Year Investment'OM&R Investment OM&R Energy Energy Sales Firm Energy ment Sales (1994-2005 ) 1994 2.501.200 2.620 2.501.200 2.437 633 2.401 •589 2.233 1995 2.620 2.267 1.385 2.043 1.198 1.768 1996 2.620 2.109 2.231 .1.197 1.796 964 1997 2.620 1.962 2.873 555 2.151 416 (1998-2047) 1998 833.600 3.320 624.200 32.256 3.531 2.872 2.459 2.000 1999 3.320 4.244 2.543 2.750 1.648"l 2000 3.320 4.686 2.101 2.824 1.266 2001 3.320 5.055 1.732 2.834 971 2002 3.320 5 .63,0 1.115 2.937 582 2003 3.320 5.983 804 2.903 390 2004 3.320 '.6.352 235 2.867 106 2005 3.320 6.767 20 2.841 8 2006-2047 6.787 000 36.171 Totals 3.334.800 3.125.400 41.031 64.320 12.352. Annual Equivalents .239.200 3.1M 4.923 845 Average Rate Computation: (1)Annual Costs:Capital $239.200.000 OM&R 3.140,000 Total $242.340.000 (2)Revenue From Fuel Replacement Energy at 12 mills per kilowatt hour -11.340.000 $231.000.000 (3)Equivalent Annual Firm Energy Sales 4.923.000.000 KWH (4)Average Rate For Repayment ($231.000.000/ 4.923.000.000 KWH)=46.9 mills/KWH ActualratesfortheSusitnasystemcouldreflectseveralitemsofcostsandrevenuesnotidentifiedintheprojectstudies.Forexample,duringitslife,projectfacilitieswouldlikelybeusedtowheelpowerfromothersources.Wheelingrevenueswillloweroverallprojectpowerratessomewhat.Conversely,wheelingcostsforprojectpowerdeliveredovernon-Federaltransmissionlineswillbeaddedtoprojectrateschedules.ThisisnowdoneunderAPAmarketingcontractsfortheSnettishamProject;ther·earesimilarsituationsinotherFederalpowersystems.MarketAspectsofOtherTransmissionAlternativesItisreasonabletoexpectmodificationsoftheprojecttransmissionsystemasrequirements(orneeds)change.Themain345-kvand230-kvlinescouldbeupgradedsubstantiallybyaddingcompensationandtransformercapacity.SubstationsCQuldbeaddedasfutureloadsincreasetoacase-by-casedeterminationofeconomics.Similarly,extensionsoftheprojecttransmissionlinestoserveotherareaswouldbeconsideredonthebasisofneeds,economics,andavailabIealternatives.Anchorage-CookInletAreaThecostsintheproposedplanare·premisedondeliverypointstosubstationsnearTalkeetnaandAnchorage.RoughestimatesindicatesimilarcostsforaplanwithdeliverypointsatTalkeetna,Anchorage,andtheexistingAPAPalmersubstation.~asicallytheproposedplanincludescoststoprovidefordeliverypointsontheexistingCEAandAPAsystemsnorthofKnikArm,butdoesnotincludecostsofdeliveringpoweracrossoraroundtheArm.WithorwithouttheSusitnaproject,additionaltransmissioncapabilityisneededontheapproachestoAnchorage.CEAplansforaKnikArmsystemconsiders230-kvtransmissionanimportantstepindevelopingthiscapability,butmorecapacitywillbeneededbythemid-1980's.Essentiallythesameproblemswillexistwithalternativepowersources,suchastheBelugacoals..Followingprojectauthorization,detailedstudieswillbeneededtoconsideralternativesforprovidingpowera~rossKnikArm.Costswouldbeworkedintoratestructuresthroughwheelingchargesonnon-Federallinesorannualcostsonprojectlines,ifneeded.ThetransmissionplantodeliverprojectpowerinAnchoragewillneedtobeworkedoutinthedetailedpostauthorizationstudies.Itwillinvolveaddedcosts,eitherwheelingchargesforprojectpowerovernon-Federallines,orconstructingprojecttransmissionlinesaroundorunderKnikArm.ThesecostscouldbeaboutthesameforalternativepowersourcessuchastheBelugacoals.Itisessentialthatschedulingofprojectfacilitiesbecloselytiedtothemarketingfunction.172 ComparisonofSusitnatoSteamplantsWithandWithoutInflationWithoutinflation,the4.7¢/kWhratefortheSusitnaprojectissignific::antly,lowerthantheestimatedcostofpowerfromcoal-firedsteamplantsat5.2to6.4¢/kWhatOctober1978costs.Consideringinflation,thecapitalcostsofbot~thesteamplantandhydropowerplantincreaseuntilconstructioniscomplete.Forthecompletedprojects,inflationaffectsonlythehydroprojectoperationandmaintenancecost,asmallpartoftheenergycost.Forthesteamptant,inflationcontinuestoincreasethefuelcostaswellasthemuchlargeroperationandmaintenancecost.Thedifferenceoftheeffectofinflationisshownonfigure19.CapitalandO&Mcostsareassumedtoinflateat5percentperyearforboth.Fuelcostsareassumedtoinflate2percentperyearhigherthanabasepriceof$1.00or$1.50permillionBtuin1985.TheconclusionsarethatSusitnaisconsiderablylesssusceptibletoinflationthansteamplants.173 /71615141312II:r3:~IO.....en....Z9w<.JIW8....«a::765432a.~OMPARISONOFSUSITNA..Figure19ANDALTERNATIVECOAL-FIREDSTEAMPLANTRATESCONSIDERING5%ANNUALINFLATIONpperSusitnaProectPowerMrketAnall,rs5/../VVI..'////,"/STEAMPLANT"\/VALERNATIVE.'\,I/.//V/",~,/"'LSUSITNA...1978198019851990/994/9952000YEAROFPRICEBASE*(FueIcostinflated2%higher)174 PARTXI.GLENNALLENA.J'IDVALDEZIntroductionTheprimaryjustificationfortheUpperpowerandenergytotheState'stwoAnchorage-CookInletandFairbanks-TananaSusitnaprojectistosupplyl.qrgest.powerwarketareas,Va]ley.TheGlennallen-Valdezareaisrecognizedasapossibleadditionalmarketarea.ThetwocommunitiesaretheprincipalloadcentersfortheCopperValleyElectricAssociation(CVEA).Atpresent,botharesuppliedfromoil-firedgenerators.CVEAisnowmovingintoinitialconstructionphasesofitsSolomonGulchhydroelectricplantnearValdez,andisinfinaldesignstagesforal38~kvtransmissionlineextending104milestointerconnectValdezandGlennallen.CVEAcouldbeinterconnectedwiththemajoruitlitiesintheAnchorage-CookInletareabyaddingatransmissionlinebetweenPalmerandGlennallen.Thetransmissiondistanceis136miles;minimumtransmissionvoltagewouldlikelybe139kv.Dependingonfuturedemand,ahighervoltagesuchas230kvmayhejustified.VerypreliminarystudiessummarizedinthefollowingsectionindicateagoodchancethatthePalmer-Glennallenintertieisfeasible.PowerMarketAreaIntroductionSimilartoFairbanks,bothqlennallenandValdezhavebeenheaVilyimpactedbytrans-Alaskaoilpipelineconstructionandoperation.Thepipelineterm:'n'_·storageandshippingfacilitiesareatValdez.Thepipelinewascompletedand'.ventintooperationin1977.TheGlennallen-Valdezarea1977populationwasapproximately9,905,39percenthigherthanin1974.However,the1976population(13,000)decreased31percentin1977.Valdezistheproposedsiteofamajorrefineryandpetr;.;chemicalcomplextoprocesstheState'sroyaltyshareofPrudhoeBayoil.Plansarenotyetfinalized,butconstructioncouldbeginasearlyas1980.ThiswouldhavemajorimpactsintermsofbothconstructionemploymentandalongtermincreaseinemploymentandpopulationforValdez.Theoperations.phaseoftherefineryinvolves1,000newjobsaccordingtorecentreports.Glennallen'spopulationandeconomyareexpectedtocontinuetogrow.ExistingPowerSystemTheCopperValleyElectricAssociation(CVEA)servesbothGlennallenandValdez.CVEA'sradialdistributionlinesextendfromGlennallen,30milesnorthontheCopperRiver,55milessouthontheCopperRivertoLowerTonsina,and70mileswestontheGlennHighway.Figure2outlinesthearea.175 CVEAplansto-construct104milesof138-kvlongtransmissionlinebetweenValdezandGlennallen.ThisisrelatedtotheSolomonGulch12-MWhydrodevelopmentnowbeginningconstruction"Atpresent,theutilityloadsareservedtotallybydieselgenerationof17.7MW:10.1MWatValdezand7.6MWatGlennallen.TwosmallutilitiesservinglimitedareasonthehighwaysnorthofGlennallenareincludedinhistoricaldata.Theirinstalleddieselcapacitytotals1/3MW.TheA1yeskaoilterminalfal;ilityatValdezhas37.5MWinoil-firedsteam-turbinecapacity.Thisisatotalenergyfacilitythatsatisfiestheterminal'selectricalandsteamrequirements.PowerRequirementsThissectionsummarizeshistoricenergyuseandrelateddata,informationfroma1976loadforecastpreparedforCVEA,andsomegeneralobservationsonlikelymagnitudeoffuturepowerrequirements.HistoricDataEnergyuseandpeakdemanddatawereobtainedfromthreepowergeneratingsourcesintheValdez-Glennallenarea:CVEA,theutilityservingover95percentofthearea;ChistochinaTradingPost;andPaxsonLodge,Incorporated.Theutilitydatayieldedinformationonenergyuse,peakdemand,andcustomersectorbreakdowns.PopulationandemploymentdatawerederivedfromstatisticsprovidedbytheStateofAlaskaDepartmentofLabor.Thisinformationillustratesdemographiccharacteristicsofthestudyarea.The1970-77Valdez-Glennallenareaissummarizedontable34.Netgenerationbyutilityfrom1960-77isontable35.AnalysisTheenergyuse,population,andemploymentdatareflecteventstiedtoconstructionandoperationoftheAlyeskaoilpipeline.The"largejumps-inpopulationandemploymentduringtheconstructionyearscannotbedirectlytiedtoutilitypowerrequirementssincemostoftheworkerswerehousedinconstructioncampsthatsuppliedtheirownpower.The1977usedatashowtotalutilityrequirementsatmorethanfourtimesthe1970level.Totalnumberofcustomerstripledduringtheperiod.Percustomerresidentialuseincreasedfrom3,846to6,423kwh.peryea+overthe7-yearperiod.Thishistoricdata~providesnoclearinsighttoprobablefuturelevelsofpoweruse--anytrendsthatwouldbeusefulinforecastingarehiddenbytheconstructionimpacts.176 ForecastTable36summarizesfuturepowerdemandestimatesfromCVEA's1976powerrequirementsstudy..Thestudyincludedestimatesofdemandsthrough1991;APAmadearoughextensiontotheyear2000,assuminga 6percentrateofincrease.TheaverageenergycapabilityoftheSolomonGulchprojectisestimatedat55millionkwh/year.Th~forecastsindicatethattheSolomonGulchpowerwouldbefullyutilizedassoonasitcomeson-line.BythetimeUpperSusitnapowerwouldbeavailable,CVEAtotaldemandswouldexceed-SolomonGulchcapabilitybyaround100millionkwh/year.TheCVEAstudypredatedtheplansfortheoilrefineryatValdez,pencethereissubstantiallikelihoodthattheactualrequirementswillexceedthe·forecastamounts.TransmissionPlanAndCostIncrementalservicetotheGlennallen-ValdezmarketareaswouldrequireconstructingtransmissionfacilitiesfromPalmertoGlennallentoconnecttotheCVEAsystemservingthemarketarea.SusitnaprojectgenerationandtransmissiontotheAnchorage-CookInleta"reawouldbesufficienttoaccomodatetheincrementalservice.ThePalmer-Glennallentransmissionsystemwouldhave136milesofsinglecircuit138-kvline,withasubstationatPalmerandaswitchyard'atGlennallen.ThePalmersubstationwouldhavea230/138-kvtransformer,a230-kvbreaker,anda138-kvcircuit-breaker.TheGlennallenswitch-yardwouldincludetwo138-kvcircuitbreakers,andwouldconnectwiththeplannedCVEA138-kvlineextendingtoValdez.Peak'capacityofthe138-kvPalmer-Glennallenlinewouldlikelybefrom50to80M1~.Thisisanassumptionforstudypurposes(stability,sizing,andpowerflowstudieswerenotmade).System.costsarebasedoncomparableelementsofotherprojecttransmissionsystems,indexedfromthe1976report(January1975r~ices)toOctober1978prices(about32percentincrease).ThebasicpricesarebasedonBureauofReclamation(USBR)andBonnevillePowerAdministration(BPA)withadjustmentsforAlaskaconditions(refertoPartVIII).Advanceplanningwouldanalyzeevaluationsofstructural,operationcontrol,environment,andotherelementsaffectingroutelocation,design,andoperationofth~systemservingthisarea.Investmentcostsarecalculatedbyadding7~percentinterestannuallyduringconstruction.ThePalmer-Glennallenlinewouldbe.::.~nstructedduringthesame.periodasotherfacilities,andwouldbereadyforservicewhenproJectpowerisavailablein1994.Table37summarizesconstructionandinvestmentcosts.177 Table34HISTORICDATAGLENNALLEN-VALDEZAREAUpperSusitnaProjectPowerMarketAnalysisUtilityEnergySales(GWH)NetGenerationResCITotalUtilit1Industry19702.17.49.911.919712.67.810.812.819722.87.610.813.019732.98.311.613.819743.710.414.516.819757.716.024.428.2197610.322.433.540.7197710.931.042.948.739.4UtilityCusto~ersPeakLoad(MW)ResCITotalUtilityIndustry19705462217932.41971S812269392.519726552379262.619736842479652.719749113171,2684.019751,1723611,5767.319761,6774042,1288.619771,6974272,1839.337(38.6installedcapacity)19701971197219731974197519761977Population(Total)3,0982,9323,4643,5683,8339,63913,0009,905Res=residentialCI=Commercial-industrial178Employment(Avg.Annual)8311,0859049851,5264,6267,8183,918 Table35UTILITYNETGENERATION(GWH)GLENNALLEN-VALDEZAREAUpperSusitn~ProjectPowerMarketAnalysisIYearCVEA.CTPPLITotalGrowth%19603.20.13.319613.40.13.56.119624.00.14.117.119634.50.14.612.219644.20.14.3-6.519656.50.26.755.819668.00.28.222.419678.20.38~53.719688.60.49.05.919699.70.40.510.617.8197010.70.40.711.811.3197111.70.40.712.88.5197211.80.40.712.90.8197312.60.40.713.76.2197416.60.40.717.729.2197526.90.40.728.058.2197639.30.40.740.444.3197747.40.40.748.520.1CVEA-CopperValleyElectricAssociationCTP-ChistochinaTradingPostPLI-PaxsonLodge,Inc.179 Table36VALDEZ-GLENNALLENAREAUTILITYFORECASTSUpperSusitnaProjectPowerMarketAnalysis-Energy(gwh)PeakDemand(MW)CVEAYCVEAYYearGlennallenValdezTotalGlennallenValdez197612.524.537.02/3.16.040.72/197721.027.048.048.7-4~25.9197822.127.249.34.45.8197924.027.651.64.65.8198045.927.973.87.35.8198148.530.579.07.76.3198250.033.083.08.16.8198352.235.587.78.57.4198455.038.293.29.08.0198557.641.499.09.58.61-98660.045.0105.010.19.3198763.148.5111.610.610.1198866.052.5lt8.511.110.9198969.156.8125.911.711.8'199072.361.4133.712.412.8.199175.066.4141.413.013.81995180200024020251,025ycopper.ValleyElectricAssociationForecastfrom1976REAPowerRequireme~tsStudy.~Historicalvalues180 Table37INVESTMENTCbSTSUMMARYGLENNALLEN-VALDEZAREATRANSMISSIONSYSTEMUpperSusitnaTransmissionLine(Palmer-Glennallen)ClearingRight-of-WayAccessRoadsLineStructuresSubtotalProjectPowerMarketAnalysis(Costs-$l,OOO10/78)ConstructionInterestInvestmentDuringConstruction$1,5403105,49025,760$33,100Switchyards&SubstationsPalmerSubstationGlennallenSwitchyardSubtotalTotal$3,880920$4,800$37,900$2,900$40,800OperationandMaintenanceCostsAdditionoftr8136-milePalmer-Glennallentransmissionlinewouldinvolvecomparativelyminorincreasesinoverallsystemoperation,maintenance,andreplacementcosts.ForpurposeofthisanalysisweareassumingtheincrementalO&Mcostswouldberoughlyequivalentto1/3oftheannualcostofonetransmissionlinemaintenancecrew.Addinganallowanceforreplacements,theannualOM&Rcostisestimatedat$131,000peryear.ThisisindicatedonTable38.181 Table38OPERATION,MAINTENANCE,ANDREPLACEMENTCOSTSUMMARYGLENNALLEN-VALDEZAREATRANSMISSIONSYSTEMUpperSusitnaProjec~PowerMarketAnalysisAnnualCost-$1,000FullCrew1/3Cre;operationandMaintenancePersonnelSalary&allowancesfor6WageGrades24080MiscellaneousTelephone,travel,supplies,servicestraining,linespray,campmaintenanceEquipment(Replacement)MarketingandAdministrationSubtotalContingencies20%+Subto;tal-O&MRoundedReplacementTransmissiontowers,fixtures,conductors0.0001x$25,766,000Substations&Switchyards0.0033x$4,800,000Subtotal-ReplacementRoundedTotalOM&R182103.382.722'7.328093.36020---340113.31132.615.818.418131 AssessmentofFeasibilityAm~n~mumintertiebetweenPalmerandGlennallenwouldinvolveincrementalinvestmentcostsontheorderof$40.8million.Incrementalannualcostsareestimated"as:AmortizationOM&RTotalAnnualCost$3,140,000131,000$3,271,000BasedontheutilityforecastforCVEA,itispossiblethatamarketinexcessof100mil1ionkwh/yearcouldbesuppliedoverthePalmer-Glennallenline.Thiswouldequatetotransmissioncostsof3.3¢/kwh.The'100millionkwh/yearwouldbeequivalentto22.8MWat50percentannualloadfactor.Thisissubstantiallylessthanhalftheestimatedcapacityfora138-kvPalmer-Glennallenline.Fullutilizationoftheintertiecouldinvolvetransmissionof200to300millionkwh/year,inwhichcase,averagetransmissioncostwoulddropfromone-halftoone-thirdthecostindicatedabove.Regardlessofthesourceofpower--coal,oil,hydro--generationcostsforCVEAwilllikelybehigherthan'forthelargerutilitysystemsservingtheAnchorage-CookInletarea.Inthiscontext,transmissioncostsontheorderof1.1to3.3¢/kwhbetweenPalmerandGlennallenmaybejustifiable.APAconcludesthatthePalmer-Glennallenintertiehasagoodchanceforfeasibility,and~hatamoredetailedexaminationiswarranted.183 APPENDIX1.LetterdatedJanuary3,1979toCol.G.R.Robertson,AlaskaDistrictCo·rpsofEngineers,.transmittingresponsestoOMBquestionsfallinginAPA'sareaofresponsibility.2.PreviousStudiesandBibliography.3.LOAD/RESOURCEANDSYSTEMCOSTANALYSISFORTHERAILBELTREGIONOFALASKA:1978-2010--InformalReport-byBattellePacificNorthwestLaboratories,Ric~land,Washington-January,1979.4.Comments.a.FederalEnergyRegulatoryCommission,SanFrancisco,California,March6,1979.b.BattellePacificNorthwestLaboratories,Richland,Washington,February27,1979.c.CorpsofEngineers,Anchorage·,Alaska,March19,1979.d.TheAlaskaStateClearinghouse,Juneau,Alaska,March23,1979.e.MunicipalLightandPowerCompany,Anchorage,Alaska,March1,1979.184 DepartmentOfEnergyAlas!<aPowerAdministrationP.O.Box50Juneau;Alaska99802ColonelGeorgeR.RobertsonAlaskaDistrictEngineerCorpsofEngineersP.O.Box7002Anchorage,AK99510DearColonelRobertson:Janua:r;y3,1979AttachedareourresponsestotheSusitnaProjectO~mquestionsweagreedtoprovide(re:ourlettersdatedJanuary20, 24,1978).CopiesoftheseresponsesweresentviaGoldstreakdirecttoCaptainMohnDecember28,1978.Sincerely,DonaldL.ShiraChief,PlanningDivision185 OMBquestion5.1,and.2.ONBaskedthattheanalysisofthe"without"projectconditionbeexpandedtoclearlyanalyze:1.l'lhy,withnaturalgasprojectedtobeinsuchshortsupply,theAnchorageutilitieshaveonlycontractedfor55percentofprovedreservesor25percentofestimatedultimateres~:rves,and,2..Thesensitivityoftheanalysis-tothecollapseofOPECandthecostofshippingoiltotheEastCoast.Bothquestionsmustbeconsideredintermsofnationalenergypolicy.TheNationneedstoreducedependencyonoilimportsonbothashort-termandalong-termbasis,andtoaccomplishamajorshiftawayfromoilandnaturalgastoalternativeenergysources.Thereasonsforthisincludenationaleconomicconsiderations,aswellasveryreal.limitsonnationalandworldsuppliesofoilandnaturalgas.~ntermsofnationalenergypolicy,oilandnaturalgasarenotavailablealternativesforlong-termproductionofelectricpower.Thereare~emainingquestion;astohowquicklyexistinguseswillbephasedoutandonhowcompletetheprohibitionswillb~onnewoil.andnaturalgas-firedpowerplants.Thereisgeneralagreement.thatimplementationofnationalpolicymust.includestrongeffortsinconservation,substantialin~reaseinuseofcoal,andmajoreffortstodeveloprenewableenergysources.Eachofthesecomponentsissensitivetoenergypriceandsnpplyvariables.Areductioninworldoilpricesor·aperiodofoversupplyservesasamarketplacedisincentiveforconservationeffortsandworkonalterna-tive.energysources.Thelowestcostalternativesandthosewithfullyproventecl1nologyaretheleastsensitiveithosethatdependonfurtherR&Daremosteasilysidetracked.Th~Sus~tnaProjectinvolveslargeblocksofpowerandnewenergyfromarcnc\\'ablesource,fullyprove'ntechnol.ogy,longrevenue-producingperiod(inexcessof100years),andessentialfreedomfromlong-termpriceincreases.Itsunitcostsappearattrac~iveincomparisontocoal-·firedpO\·;erplants.Itisatwo-stageproject"lithopportunitytodeferthesecondstageifdemandsare10\'lerthanpresentestimatesorifpricerelationshil"ls·cha.nge.Theabovefactorssuggestthatt:heUpperSusitnaProjectismuchlesssensitivetoshort-termoilprice<lndsupplyvariationsthanJOosto·tharu.s.energyoptions.186 Ifiti!;ClSSUl:lec]thZltA1Clsbmoilandnaturalg,ISwillheisolZltcxlfro:nU.S.and\o:orlddCl!l<Uluandpric..::i.ng,AJaska\"oulc1probzlblycontinuetousei.tsoilanc1gasformostofitspmomr.'i'hisC1~;$tlmptionelid,infact,prevail})(~t\'rccntheinitialoi.landgasdi!;covericsintheCookInletareZlandthe1973oilembargo.In1960,thel~nchorage-CookInleta.reapo,versuppliescamealmostentirelyfromcOZllandhydro.'l'he10\'1cost,clbundant:gasbroughtZlhalttohydrodevclop:nent:anddcstroyecltheareatscoalindustry.TheoneremainingAlaskancoalminehZlrelymadeitthroughthe1960'sbecauseofcor:tp~titionfromrelativelycheapoil.TheCo01cInletgashasbeensubjectedtoincreasingcompetitionin·thelastfewyears,includingproposalsforLNGfacilities,additionalpetrochemicalplants,~ndconsiderationofpipelinealternativestotiein,.,iththe1\lcanpipelineproject.T'necompetitionresultedin,increas-ingpricesandincreasingdifficultyinobtaininglong-termcommitmentsofgasforpower.Thecompetitionsandthepriceincr9asesareexpectedtocontinue.TherealquestionongasavailabilityasitpertainstoUpperSusitnaois:"lhatistheoutlookforlong-tenngassuppliesforpO\verafter1990?Thatoutlookisnotgoodintermsofcompetingusesandllationalpolicy.187 Responsetom1Bquestion5.3."TheNecessityforanAnchorage-Fairbanksintertieatacostof$200-300million"Theestimatedconstructioncost(1978dollars)forthetransmissionlinesfromtheSusitnaProjecttotheFairbanksareais$152million,and$186millionforthelinesfromtheprojecttotheAnchoragearea(total$338million).Therear~severalpreviousstudies!!th~tdemonstrateinherentfeasibilityofanAnchorage-FairbanksintertiewithorwithoutconstructionoftheUpperSusitnaProject.Themain-reasonthattheintertieisnotnowinplaceisthatshorttermbenefitstotheAnchorageareaarequitesmall,i •e.,mostof'theshorttermbenefitsfortheintertie\-louldoccurthroughreducedenergyandpowercostsintheFairbanksarea.APAstudiesinthe1975"feasibilityreportevaluatedSusitnaProjectpowertoFairbanksonacost-of-servicebasis(seeAppendixI,p.6-89).ThiswasaspecificdemonstrationoffeasibilityofincludingFairbanksaspartoftheUpperSusitnaPowerMarketarea.1/Amongthepreviousstudiesare:AlaskaPowerSurvey,FederalPowerCommission,1969.Central,AlaskaPowerPool,workingpaper,AlaskaPowerAdministration,October1969.AlaskaRailbeltTransmissionSystem,workingpaper,AlaskaPowerAdmin-istration,December1967.ElectricGenerationandTransmissionIntertieSystemforInteriorandSouthcentralAlaska,CH2MHill,1972.CentralAlaskaPowerStudy,TheRalphM.ParsonsCompany,undated.AlaskaPowerFeasibilityStudy,TheRalphM.ParsonsCompany,1962.188 Furtherverificationoffeasibilityoftheintertieisprovidedinthenewload-resourceanalysesandsystemcostanalysespreparedforthecurrentstudies.Thesegeneralcaseswereanalyzed:Case1.Case2.Case3.Allfuturegeneratingcapacityassumedtobecoal-firedsteamturbineswithoutintertie.Allfuturegeneratingcapacityassumedtobecoal-firedsteamturbineswithintertie.FuturegeneratingcapacitytoincludeUpperSusitnaProjectpluscoal-firedsteamplantsasneeded.Includesintertie.ResultsofpowercostanalysesforAnchorageandFairban~sfortheyear2000,withandwithoutintertieareasfo.llows:PowerCostsforAnchorageandFairbanks(0%Inflation)(¢/KwH)Case1Case2Case3WithoutIntertieWithIntertieWithSusitnaandIntertieAnchorageFairbanksAnchorageFairbanksAnchorageFairbanksHigh6.28.86.18.05.86.2Med6.68.96.28.45.56.7Lo\'17.19.26.28.86.1 7.8Thefollowingtablepresentsacomparisonofthecostsofpowerintheyear2000forCase2,and3ascomparedtoCase1.AsshownthecostsofpowerarereducedbelowthecostofpowerforCase1inallcases.Thereductioninthecostofpoweristypicallygreaterinthe189 ,Fairbanks-TananaValleyareathanintheAnchorage-CookInletareabecausetheAnchorage-CookInletareawillhaveahigherpercentofitsgenerationsuppliedbysteamplantswhicharemorecostlythanSusitna.ComparisonofPowerCostsforYear2000PercentChangeinCostofPowerBelm..Case1-0%InflationAnchorageFairbanksHighMediumLowHighMediumLowCase2-1.6-6.5-14.5-10.0·-6.0 -4.5case3-6.9-20.0-16.4-41.9 -32.8-17.9Table1compa.~esannualsystemcostsforallthreecasesforAnchorageandFairbanksduringthe1990-2011period.Table1showsthefo110,..ingpercentsavingsinsystemcosts(1990-2011)forCa.ses2and3comparedtoCase1:Case2Case3Anchorage-0.4-10.7Fairbanks-7.9-28.1190Total-1.4-14.1 "., I j :0 ::>Table 1.Annual Power System Costs for Power Supply UnderI :0 Cases I,II,and III -Mid-Range Load Projections -0%Inflation::> '"($Million) " Period Case I Case II Case III Anchorage Fairbanks Anchorage Fairbanks Anchorage Fairbanks 1980-90 272.0 90.6 254.5 84.2 254.5 84.2 90-91 274.2 96.8 293.8 89.0 293.8 89.0 91-92 324.2 98.2 343.8 90.2 343.8 90.2 92-93 387.5 119.5 409.9 88.2 409.9 88.2 93-94 391.7 120.9 414.1 89.2 414.1 89.2 94-95 398.9 122.2 421.3 114.9 537.5 120.5 95-96 463.7 127.6 486.1 143.7 537.9 124.8 96-97 549.0 152.4 571.5 143.2 543.0 124.0 ~ 167.8-0 97-98 615.9 578.7 158.5 549.3 139.2 ~ 98-99 627.7 '192.0 650.2 182.6 576.3 145.1 1999-2000 694.4 193.8 657.2 184.5 577.2 145.7 Sub total 4,999.4 1,481.8 5,081.1 1,368.2 5,037.3 1,240.1 00-01 691.8 194.9 714.3 185.5 573.4 146.5 01-02 698.6 196.2 721.1 186.8 578.5 14"7.4 02-03 760.3 195.0 723.1 208.2 658.6 168.6 03-04 767.9 230.8 789.8 209.6 665.1 169.6 04-05 776.0 232.2 798.5 211.0 670.8 170.6 05-06 864.0 232.1 807.1 210.9 677 .6 170.2 06-07 872.8 233.5 815.9 212.3 744.4 171.2 07-08 881.9 235.1 904.4 213.8 751.6 172.3 08-09 891.1 236.5 913.6 215.2 759.0 173.4 09-10 901.6 238.1 923.1 216.9 766.7 174.6 10-11 969.9 239.6 932.7 218.4 834.3 175.7 Total 14,075.1 3,945.8 14,124.7 3,656.9 12,,717.3 3,080.2 ResponsetoOMBquestion5.4."Schedulingofpo~.,erplantsandthereducedriskofbuildingsmallincrements."TheLoad/Resourceanalysisfor\.,ithou·tprojectconditionaddressestheschedulingofsteamplantsandsizeofunitsneeded.ThisisdemonstratedinChapterVIIofthemarketabilityreport.AnnualpowersystemcostsshowninTable1underquestion5.3showsavingsfromSusitnaoverthewithoutSusitnacase.ThesteamplantsaresmallerunitsthanSusitna,buttheirhighercostcontributestohigheroverallsystemcosts.Ananalysisofhydroalternativesindicatethattherearenoteconomicalsitesavailableinsufficientquantitytobecompar9bietoSusitna.Thi:;,;issupportedbyAPAISdraftreporton"AnalysisofPotentialAlternativeHydroelectricSitestoServeRailbeltArea."192 193ResponsetoOMSquestion6.1,.2,and.3.DemandEstimatesTheanalysisofloadgrowthshouldbemorespecificwithrespectto:1.Increasingusebyconsumers;and,2.Increasingnumberofconsumers.3.Industrialgrowth,i.e.,tolheredoesAlaska'scomparativeadvantagelieoutsidetheareaofrawmaterialsandgovernmentfunctions?ThenewestimatesoffutureP9werdemandareresponsivetothefirsttwopartsofthisquestion.APAcompletedaverycarefulanalysisofrecentpowerusetrendsby.classofcustomer,withparticularemphasisonidentifyingrecenttrendsthatcouldbeattributed~oconservationefforts.ThefuturedemandsarebasedonfuturepopulationestimatesdevelopedbytheUniversityofAlaska'sInstituteofSocialandEconomicResearchandincorporateassumptionsofsubstantiallyimprovedefficiencyinuseofelectricpowerthroughconservation.ThethirdpartofthequestionrequiresconsiderationoftheoverallAlaskaneconomy,presentandfuture,andtheroleofUpperSusitnapower.AlaskaisnotaheavilyindustrializedStatenorisitexpectedtobe••TheoilandgasindustryispresentlythedominatingsectoroftheState'sGNP,andwillcontinuetobesoforatleastthebalanceofthe20thcentury.ThisistheprinciplesourceofrevenuesfortheStateandthusthedrivingforcebehindStateprogramsforeducation,localgovernmentassistance,welfare,andsoon.Otherimportantindustriesarethefisheries,forestproducts,andrecreation-tourism.Thelow-andmid-rangepopulationestimatesincorporateverymodestassumptionsofindustrialexpansionbasedonpioneeringofAlaskannaturalresourcesforthemos·tpart.Thespecificindustrialassumptionsreflectprovensourcesofnaturalresourcesandprojectsthatarewellalongintheplanningstages. Extractionandprocessingofnaturalreso~rceswillundoubtedlycontinuetobemajoraspectsoftheAlaskaneconomy.OtherimportantaspectsincludebusinessactivitiesofNativeCorporationsandincreasingamountsoflandmadeavailabletoStateand,privateo~mership.ActionspendingonthenewNationalParks,Refuges,andWildandScenicRiverswillencouragefurtherdevelopmentoftherecreationandtourismindustries.Asinmostpartsofthecountry,Alaskaemploy~entisnotdominatedby·theindustrialsectors.Mostjobsareinservice.industries,thecommer-cialestablishments,transportation,utilities,andgovernment.ThenewpopulationestimatebyISERindicatesthatthedistributionofemploymentwillnotchangesUbstantially.Theanticipatedgrowthintheeconomy,employment,andinpowerdemandsisprimarilyinthenon-industrialsectors.ItshouldbenotedthattheRailbeltareademandsforelectricenergyin1977~ere2.7billionkilO\'latt-hours,\'1hichisapproachingthefirmenergycapabilityoftheWatanaProject.TheloadresourceanalysesdemonstratefullutilizationofWatanaenergyessentiallyassoonasitbecomesavailable,evenunderthelowerpowerdemandcase.ThisbasicallyleadsustoafindingthattheUpperSusitnajustificationisnotdependentonmajorindustrialexpansioninAlaska.194 Responseto0r-mQuestion7.UnderthetopicSensitivityAnalysis,OMBprovidedthefol101.'lingconunents:"Pm-lerdemandshouldbesubjectedtoasensitivityana.lysistobetter~ssesstheuncertaintiesindevelopmentofsuchalargeblockofpower.Thetypicalutilityinvestsonthebasisofan8-10yeartimehorizon..TheSusitnaplanhasan11...:.16yearhorizoninfaceofrisksthatloadsmaynotdevelopaTldtheoptionof~lheelingpo~lertoothermarketsisnotavailable.ItshouldbenotedthatthepOtierdemandforSnettishamwasundulyoptimisticwhenitw'asbuilt.Thisresultedindelaysininstallinggenerators.AsimilarerrorinaprojectthesizeofSusitnat<louldbemuchmorecostlyandvloul'dhaveamajoradverseeffectontheproject'seconomics."Thenewpowerdemandesti~tes,loadresourcesanalyses,andfinancial-analysispresentedinthisreport,allprovideabetterbasisforexaminingthesequestions.Inaddition,thereisneedtoreviewsomeoftheSnettishamProjecthistorytobringoutsimilaritiesanddifferenceswiththeP""'perSusitnacase.SnettishamReviewThe~nettishamHydroelectricProjectislocatednearJuneau,Alaska,andisnowthemainsourceofpowerforthegreaterJuneauarea.Theprojectwasauthorizedin1962onthebasisoffeasibilityinvestigationsbytheBureauofReclamation,constructedbytheCorpsofEngineers,andopera-tedbytheAlaskaPowerAdministration.The-projectwasconceivedasaxwo-stagedevelopmentandconstructionofthefirst,orLongLake,stagewascompletedinlate1973withfirstcommercialpowertoJuneauinDecember1973.Thesecond,orCraterLake,stagewouldbeaddedwhenpowerdemandsdictate.195 Juneauwas,andis,anisolatedpowermarketarea.DifficultterrainandlongdistanceshavethusfarpreventedelectricalinterconnectionwithotherSoutheastAlaskacommunitiesandneighboringareasofCanada;however,suchinterconnectionsmayprovefeasiblewithinthenext15to20years.Theprojectplanningandjustificationwaspremisedonper-viceonlytothegreaterJuneauarea.TheSnettishamauthorizationwasbasedonpowerdemandestimatesbytheAlaskaDistrict,BureauofReclamation(nowAlaskaPowerAdministration).11Theestimateswerebasedonactualpowerusethrough1960andprojec-tionstotheyear1987.Theoutlook"atthattimewasthatthefirststageconstructionwouldbecompletedin1966,andthattotalprojectcapabilitywouldnotbeneededuntil1987.Acomparisonofpowerdemandestimatesatthetimeofauthorizationwithactualdemandsissho~monTable1.The1977energyloadwas112,197megawatt-hoursor81percentoftheamountestimatedin1961basedonhistoricalrecordsthrough1960.1/ReappraisaloftheCrater-LongLakesDivision,Snettish2ffiProject,Alaska,USBR,November1961.196 Table1PowerandEnergyRcguirements-JuneauAreaActualDemandsForecastedDemandsatTimeofAuthorizatipn1/FiscalYear(Oct.1 -Sept.30)MWHPeak].1\'1MWHPeakMW195823,9454,788,195926,2975,321196028,4995,465197058,26612,42073,40015,230197163,78613,78080,70016,750197270,22514,91088,80018,430197375,75315,47097,50020,240197483,05916,220106,90022,190197594,60917,840116,90024,2601976106,29619,800127,60026,4801977112,19720,440139,10028,8701/.FromReappraisaloftheCrater-LongLakesDivision,SnettishamProject,Alaska,USBR,November1961.197 Theinherentflexibilityofastagedprojectprovedtobeverybenefi-cialinthecaseofsnettisham.APAmadeperiodicupdatesofthepowerdemandestinates.duringconstructionoftheLong.Lakestage.Forseveralyears,theseforecastsindicateda'needtoproceedwiththeCraterLakestageconstructionimmediatelyoncompletionoftheLongLakestage.TheCorpsofEngineersconstructionschedulesandbudgetrequests,basedontheAPApowerdemandestimates,anticipatedstartofconstructiononCraterLakeinFY1977.Majorfactorsinthesefore-castswereplansforamajornewpulpmillintheJuneauareaandforironoreminingandreductionfacilityinthevicinityofPortSnettisham.Neitherofthesedevelopmentswereanticipatedatthetimeofauthoriza-tion.Bothoftheseresourcedevelopmentsfellthrough,andthisresultedinasubstantialreductionintheAPApowerdemandestimateandadecisioninlate1975todefertheCraterLakeco~structionstart.Thepulpmillwasparticularlyinfluentialinthechangeindemandestimates.Themillwasplannedforoperationintheearly1970'swithalargepopulationandcommercialimpactonJuneau~InitialaccessfacilitieswereconstructedandsitepreparationwaswellunderwaywhentheprojectbecameentangledinprotractedlawsuitsinvolvingloggingpracticesinSoutheastAlaska.Severalcourtdecisionsweremadeinfavorofthedevelopment,butalastminuteremandputtheprojectbacktobaseoneandledtocancellationinearly1975.Thistypeofuncertaintyfacesallutilityplanners.ThestagedprojectlikeSnettisham'affordsagreatdealofcapabilitytoadjusttochangesindemand.ManyotherfactorsinfluencedJuneauareapowerdemandsandutiliza~ionofprojectpower.OfparticularconcernatthemomentisimpactofAlaska'scapitalmoveinitiative.Thiswouldcertainlychangeuseofprojectpower,withthemostlikelyoutcomethatthecommunitywouldmovemorequicklyintoanall-electricmode(spaceheatingandelectricvehiclesappearparticularlyattractiveinthisarea)andindustrialuseofpowerwouldincreasethrougheconomicdiversification.198 'rhekeypointsoftheSnettishamrevim'lare:1.Theprojectwasplannedandauthorizedwithintenttohandlegrowthinareapowerrequirementsfor~20-yearperiod.2.'Theloadforecastsused·asabasisforauthorizationwerereasonablyaccurate.3.Theactualuseofprojectpowermayturnouttobesubst~tiallydifferentthanoriginallyanticipated.4.Theflexibilityofstagedprojectswasactuallyused.5.Theoutlookforfinancialviabilityappearsexcellentatthistimeinhistory•.ImplicationsforSusitnaFirst,thenormforutilityinvestmentscannotremainasthebasisofan8to10.yeartimehorizon.Thisisevidencedbyexperiencessinceabout1970ontimerequiredtoplan,obtainnecessarypermitsorauthorizations,findfinancing,andthenbuildnewpowerplantsandmajortransmissionfacilities.The8to10yearsismuchtooshortfornuclear,coal,andhydroplantsandformajortransmissionlines.Itappearsappropriatetorequirea20-yearplanninghorizonwithcarefulchecksateachstepintheprocessandbusiness-likedecisionstoshiftconstructionschedulesifconditions(demands)change.WebelievetheSnettishamexperienceisverypositiveinthislight.TheSusitnaProjectissimilarinthatprojectinvestmentiskeyedtotwomajorstages.ThecommitmentofconstructionfundsforWatanawouldbeneededin1986or1987tohavepoweronlineby1993or1994.Ifconditionsin1986indicateneedtodefertheproject,itshouldbedeferred.Similarly,startofactualconstruction.onDevilCanyoncan199 andshouldbebasedonconditionsthatactuallyprevailatthetimethedecisionismade.ThelevelofuncertaintyforUpperSusitnaisgreaterthanwasthecaseforSnettishamoncountsofhigherinterestcostsandlargertotalinvestment.SensitivitytochangeindemandsismuchlessforSusitnabecauseofitslargeanddiversifiedpO\..ermarketarea.TherearemanymorewaysthatSusitnaProjectpowercouldbeeffectivelyutilizedintheeventthattraditionalutilitypowermarketsaresmaller'thananticipatedatthepresent.UpperSusitnaOdoesnothaveasmanyuncertainitiesintermsofenviron-mentalquestionsaswouldequivalentpowersuppliesfromcoalornuclearplants.UncertaintiesonairqualityareparticularlyrelevantforanylargerAlaskancoal-firedpowerplants.200IIIIIIIIIIIIIIII1IIIII CurrentEvaluationPowerdemandswereestimatedforHigh,Medium,andLowcasestoyear2025assuminglogicalvariationsinpopulationandenergyusepercapita.Theprojectionsreflectenergyusepercapitabasedondetailedstudiesof1970-1977datafromboththeAnchorageandFairbanksareas.Theprojectionsconsideredvariationsinpercapitauserangingfromincreaseduseofelectricityinthehometoanticipatedeffectsofcon~ervationondecreasingthegrowthrates·.AdetaileddiscussionofthedevelopmentofthepowerdemandsisincludedinChap~er5ofthisreport.Theload/resourceandcostanalysisprovidedsystemcostforcomparisonofcasesbothwithandwithouttheSusitnaPr~ject"Theanalysisalsocomparedthepowerdemandstotheresourcesrequiredtodeterminesizesandtimingofnewplants(theload/resourceanalysisissummarizedinChapterVII).Table2summarizestheresourcesneededduringthe1990'sfortherangeofprojections.TheTableindicatesthatevenunderthemostconservativeloadgrowthcondition(low),1,500MWareneededtomeetthecombinedAnchorage-Fairbanksdemands,whichisroughlythecapabilityofSusitna.Tables3and4showthepowercostsforAnchorageandFairbanksduringthe1990'swithaninterconnectionandwithandwithouttheSusitna·Project.ItisreadilyapparenttheratesarelessforthecasewithSusitna.Forexample,inthemediumcasefortheyear2000,Anchoragecostsare5.5¢/kwhor13percentlessthanwithoutSusitna.IntheFairbankscosts,thedifferenceismuchlarger,6.7¢/kwhor25percentlessthanwithoutSusitna.InTable5,annualsysteminterestcostsarecomposedwithandwithoutSusitnawithintertiefrom1990to2011.ExaminationofthesystemcostonanannualbasisrevealsthecasewithSusitnaischeaperthanthewithoutSusitnacaseforeachyearexceptthefirstfewyearsafterWatanacomesonline.201 Caseswith"InterconnectionwithoutUppersusitnaTable2.ScheduleofPlantAdditions-l~iAnchorageFairbanksPeriod"HighMedianLowHighMedianLow'89-90400*200*10090-9120091-9240020092-9340020020093-9440010094-95*100*95-9640040020010010096-9740040020010010097-9840040020010010098-9940040010099-00400TOTAL90-2000320020001200700"400300*InterconnectionInstalledin1987forhighcase,1990formediancase,&1995forlowcase.Repl~cementofmilitarypowerplants,manyofwhichalsosupplyheatforbuildingsareadditionalbutnotshownhere.202 TABLE3.PowerCostsforAnchorageandFairbanksAreasWithInterconnectionandWithoutUpperSusitna-0%Inflation(cents/kwh)AnchorageFairbanksPeriodHighMedianLowHighMedianLow89-905.74.54.2·4.75.85.690-915.44.84.14.65.9 5.891-925.75.34.14.45.75.892-935.45.94.76.35.45.693-945.7 5.64.67.35.25.594-955.55.44.97.06.56.795-965.6 5.85.47.87.76.996-975.86.45.88.27.48.397-985.96.16.68.77..89.198-996.06.56.48.38.78.999~()06.16.2 6.28.08.48.8203 'I'ABLE4.PowerCostsforAnchorageandFairbanksAreasWithInterconnectionandWithUpperSusitnaComingonLinein1994-0%Inflation(cents/kwh)AnchorageFairbanksPeriodHighMedianLowHighMedianLo\'189-905.74.54.24.75.85.690-915.44.84.14.65.95.891-925.75.34.64.45.77.292-935.45.94.46.35.46.993-945.75.65.07.35.26.894-95·6.46.97.37.96.88.895-966.06.5 6.87.76.78.996-976.26.1 6.57.26.48.697-986.25.86.36.66.9 7.898-996.15.86.16.56.9·7~699-005.8 5.56.16.2 6.77.8204 TABLE5.PO''1erSystemAnnualCostsforAnchorageandFairbanksWithUpperSusitnaCorningOnLinein1994-O!'"Inflation(million$)AnchorageFairbanksPeriodHighMedianLowHighMedianLow89-90508.5254.5173.485.284.263.490-91514.1293.8175.089.089.068.591-92591.8343.8206.090.290.287.492-93597.3409.9205.0137.f88.285.593-94666.0414.1244.5166.88.9.286.'494-95798.5537.5372.3192.2120.5115.695-96806.1537.9368.4198:0124.8 119.296-97898.6543.0368.5198.5124.0117.597-98793.1549.3369.9192.5139.2],09.298-991,009.1576.3376.1201.3145.1109.799-001,018.9577.2391.7203.5145.7114.900-011,025.1573.4381.4228.6146.5 114.501-021,101.3578.5380.3254.0147.4114.502-031,172.1658.6375.3254.3168.6111.903-041,190~4665.1376.6291.6169.6112,,0.:04-051,287.7670.8376.8296.0170.6112.105-061,366.8677.6378.0296.1170.2110.706-071,386.8744.4379.4299.2171.2110.807-081,467.2751.6380.8302.4172.3110.908-091,548.1759.0382.2305.7173.4·111.109-101,569.9766.7383.7343.5174.6111.210-111,671.6834.3385.2347.0175.7111.4Total22,989.012,717,37,430.54,973.43,080.22,308.4205 (con1;inued)TABLE·5.PO\'lerSystemAnnualCostsforAnchorageandFairbankswithoutUpperSusitnaComing,OnLinein1994-0%Inflation(mil1ton$)AnchorageFairbanksPeriodHighMedianlowHighMedianLow89-90508.5254.5173.485.284.263.490-91514.1293.8175.089.089.068.591-92591.8343.8185.790.2 90.271.192-93597.3409.9223.3137.888.269.293-94666.0414.1227.2166.889.270.194-95678.0421.3252.4169'.I!114.987.295-96750.0486.1290.9201.3143.791.896-97843.4571.5327.9,224.8143.2113.197-98918.8578.7389.8253.4158.5 127.698....;99998.3650.2396.7256.3182.6128.499-001,074.0657.2397.9259.7184.5·129.300-011,160.8714.3470.6262.3185.5129.601-021,238.6721.1472.5265.3186.8130.202-031,~10.9723.1469.8265.8208.2128.303-041,331.0789.8472.8303.5209.6128.8'04-051,350.7798.5474.8341.2211.0129.305-061,431.7807~1477.8343.1210.9128.406-071,513.3815.9480.9346.5212.3151.707-081,615.1904.4484.0350.1213.8152.208-091,638.1913.6487.1353.7215.3152.809-101,721.4923.1490.3357.5216.9153.310-'"111,801.7932.7493.6361.4·218.4153.9Total24,253.514,124.78,314.45,484.33,656.92,558.2,206 ItshouldbenotedthatinthelowenergyuseestimatethetotalsystemcostforAnchorageduringthisperiodamountsto$883.9millionlesswithSusitnathanwithouttheproject.Thedifferenceisevenlargerinthemediumandhighcases.ThecombinedAnchorage-Fairbankscashsavingsforthesameperiodbasedonthemediumpoweruseestimateisalmost·$2Billion.207 PreviousStudiesThere,.,asafairlysubstantialbacklogofpowersystemandprojectstudiesrelevanttothe1976evaluationoftheUpperSusitnaRiverProject.Th~previousstudiesmostrelevantinclude:1.AdvisoryCommitteestudiescompletedin1974fortheFederalPowerCommission's(FPC)1976Alf'lskaPo,V'erSurvey.Thestudiesincludeevaluationofexistingpowersystemsandfutureneedsthroughtheyear2000,andthemaingenerationandtransmissionalternativesavailabletomeettheneeds.Thepowerrequirementstudiesandalternativegenerationsystemstudiesforthe1976powersurveywereusedextensively.2."A·seriesofutilitysystemstudiesforRailbeltareautilitiesincludeassessmentsofloads,po\V'ercosts,andgenerationandtrans-missionalternatives.3.PreviousworkbytheAlaskaPowerAdministration,theBureauofReclamation"theutilitysystems,andindustryonstudiesofvariousplansforRailbelttransmissioninterconnectionsandtheUpperSusitn"ahydroelectricpotential;Itshouldbenotedthat.manyofthestudieslistedinthebibliographyrepresentaperiodinhistorywhentherewasverylittleconcernaboutenergyconservation,growth,andneedsforconservingoilandnaturalgasresourc~s.Similarly,manyofthesestudiesreflectedanticipcn:ionoflongterm,verylowcostenergysupplies.Inthisregard,thestudiesforthe1976po,V'ersurveyareconsideredparticularlysignificantinthattheyprovideafirstassessmentofAlaskapo,v-ersystemneeds.reflectingthecurrentconcernsforenergyandfuelsconservationandtheenvironment,andtherapidlyincreasingcostsofenergyintheeconomy.Thelatterconcernforconservation,etc.hasbeencarriedevenfurtherinthisreport.AsyetunpublishedstudiesbytheAlaskaPO\v-erAdmini-strationhavemadeadefinitereflectionofconservationassumptions.Theresultingloadforecastswereusedinload/resourceanalysesdoneandreportedbyBattellePacificNorthwestLaboratoriesin1978and1979.(Ba~te1lealsopublishedareportin1978entitledAlaskaElectricPower,andAnalysisofFutureRequirementsandSupplyAlternativesfortheRaUbe1tRegiOn.)Pop'ulationandemploymentusedintherecentforecastswereprojectedandreportedbytheInstituteofSocialandEconomicResearchinSeptember1978.TheresultoftheireconometricmodelisentitledSouthCentralAlaska'sEconomyandPopulation,1965-2025:ABaseStudyandProjection.Apartialbibliographyofrelatedstudiesincludingthoseofthe1976Susitnareport,isappended.208 PARTIALBIBLIOGRAPHYOFRELATEDSTUDIESThe1976AlaskaPowerSurvey,FederalPowerCommissionVol.IandVol.II.AlaskaRegionalEnergyResourcesPlantProject-PhaseI,AlaskaDivisionofEnergyandPowerDevelopment,DepartmentofCommerceandEconomicDevelopment,October1977.VolumeI -Alaska'sEnergyResources,FindingsandAnalysisVolumeII-Alaska'sEnergyResources,InventoryofOil,Gas,Coal,Hydroelectric,andUraniumResourcesJobsandPowerForAlaskans:AProgramforPowerandEconomicDevelop-ment,July1978.DepartmentofCommerceandEconomicDevelopment.Appendix:PowerandEconomicDevelopmentProgram,July1978.AlaskaElectricPowerstatistics1960-1976,AlaskaPowerAdministration,July1977.TheProposedGlennallen-ValdezTransmissionLine.AnAnalysisofAvailableAlternatives.RobertW.RetherfordAssociates,May1978.PowerRequirementsStudy,MatanuskaElectricAssociation,Inc.RuralElectrificationAdministration,May1978.209 SouthcentralRailbeltArea,Alaska,UpperSusitnaRiverBasinInterimFeasibilityReport.HydroelectricPowerandRelatedPurposes,Corps.ofEngineers,December1975.AppendixI,PartI:(A)Hydrology,(B)ProjectDescriptionandCostEstimates,(C)PowerStudiesandEconomics,(D)FoundationandMaterials,(E)EnvironmentalAssessment,(F)RecreationalAssessmentAppendixI,PartII:(G)MarketabilityAnalysis,(H)Trans-missionSystem,(I)EnvironmentalAssessmentforTransmissionSystemsAppendixII:PertinentCorrespondenceandReportsofOtherAgencies.AHydrologicReconnaissanceoftheSusitnaRiverBelowDevilsCanyon.Environaid,October1974.SolomonGulchHydroelectricProject.DefiniteProjectReport.RobertW.RetherfordAssociates,March1975.ElectricPowerinAlaska,1976-1995.InstituteofSocialandEconomicResearch,UniversityofAlaska,August1976.SouthcentralAlaska'sEconomyandPopulation,1965-2025:ABaseStudyandProjection.ReportoftheEconomicTaskForce,SouthcentralAlaskaWaterResourcesStudy(LevelB).InstituteofSocialandEconomicResearch,UniversityofAlaska,September1978(DraftReport).210 InteriorAlaskaEnergyAnalysisTeamReport.FairbanksIndustrialDevelopmentCorporationforDivisionofEner~andPowerDevelopment,June1977~NaturalGasDemandandSupplytotheYear2000intheCookInletBasinofSouthcentralAlaska.sRiInternationalforPacificAlaskaLNGCompany,November1977.Load/ResourceandSystemCostAnalysisfortheRailbeltRegionofAlaska;1978-2010.BattellePacificNorthwestLaboratories,January1979.ParticipationinHealyItElectricGeneration,FairbanksMunicipalUtilitiesSystem.HarstadAssociates,Inc.June1978.EconomicFeasibilityofaPossibleAnchorage-FairbanksTransmissionIntertie.RobertW.RetherfordAssociatesforAlaskaPowerAuthority(notyetcompleted).1976PowerSystemsStudy,ChugachElectricAssociation,rnc.TippettandGee.March1976.ComparativeStudyofCoalandNuclearGenerationOptionsinthePacificNorthwest,WashingtonPublicPowerSupplySystem,June1977.Coal-FiredPowerplantCapitalCostEstimates,ElectricPowerResearchInstitute,January1977.211 AnalysisoftheEconomicsofCoalVersusNuclearforaPowerplantNearBoise,Idaho,IdahoNuclearEnergyCommission,March1976.AlaskaElectricPower,AnAnalysisofFutureRequirementsandSupplyAlternativesfortheRailbeltRegion,BattellePacificNorthwestLaboratories,March1978.GeologyandCoalResourcesoftheHomerDistrictKenaiCoalField,Alaska,.GeologicalSurveyBulletin1058-F,1959.DevelopmentoftheBelugaCoalField,astatusreport,A.M.L~ird,PlacerAmexInc.,SanFrancisco,California,October1978.TTidalPowerFromCook"Inlet,Alaska,Swales,M.C.andWilson,E.M.,publishedinTidalPower,ProceedingsoftheInternationalConferenceontheUtilizationofTidalPower,May1970.AdvisoryCommitteeReportsforFederalPowerCommissionAlaskaPowerSurvey:ReportoftheExecutiveAdvisoryCommittee;December1974EconomicAnalysisandLoadProjections,May1974ResourcesandElectricPowerGeneration,May1974CoordinatedSystemsDevelopmentandInterconnection,December1974EnvironmentalConsiderationsandConsumerAffairs,May1974212 AlaskaPowerSurvey,FederalPowerCommission,1969.DevilCanyonStatusReport,AlaskaPowerAdministration,May1974.DevilCanyonProject-.Alaska,ReportofthecommissionerofReclamation,March1961,andsupportingreports.Reprint,March1974.ReassessmentReportonUpperSusitnaRiverHydroelectricDevelopmentfortheStateofAlaska,HenryJ.kaiserCompany,Sept.1974.ProjectIndependence,FederalEnergyAdministration,1974.Amainreport,summary,seventaskforcereports,andthedraftenvironmentalimpactstatement.EngineeringandEconomicStudiesfortheCityofAnchorage,AlaskaMunicipalLightandPowerDepartment,R.W.BeckandAssociatesandRalphR.StefanoandAssociates,August1970.PowerSupply,GoldenValleyElectricAssociation,Inc.,Fairbanks,-Alaska,StanleyConsultants,1970.CopperValleyElectricAssociation,Inc.-15YearPowerCostStudy,Hydro/Diesel,RobertW.RetherfordAssociates,October1974.213 EnvironmentalAnalysisforProposedAdditionstoChugachElectricAssociation,Inc.,GeneratingStationatBeluga,Alaska,ChugachElectricAssociation,October1973.CentralAlaskaPowerPool,workingpaper,AlaskaPowerAdministration,October1969.AlaskaRailbeltTransmissionSystem,workingpaper,AlaskaPowerAdministration,December1967.ElectricGenerationandTransmissionIntertieSystemforInteriorandSo~thcentralAlaska,CH2MHill,1972.CentralAlaskaPowerStudy,TheRalphM.ParsonsCompany,undated.AlaskaPowerFeasibilityStudy,TheRalphM.ParsonsCompany,1962.214Il\I(1(IIf(I1 LOAD/RESOURCEANDSYSTEMCOSTANALYSISFORTHERAILBElTREGIONOFALASKA:1978-2010forALASKAPOWERADMINISTRATIONu.s.DEPARTMENTOFENERGYbyJ.J.JacobsenW.H.SwiftJ.A.HaechJanuary1979PacificNorthwestLaboratoryRichland,Washington99352215PNL-2896INFORMALREPORT CONTENTSLISTOFFIGURES218LISTOFTABLES.2191.0INTRODUCTION2222.0SUMMARYANDCONCLUSIONS2253.0LOAD/RESOURCEANAlYSES2283.1ANALYSISMETHODOLOGY2293.2ASSUMPTIONS2293.2.1ForecastedPowerandEnergyRequirements2293.2.2ExistingandPlannedGeneratingCapacity2363.2.3ReserveMargin2363.2.4TransmissionLosses2423.2.5ConstructionScheduleConstraints2423.2.6PlantAvailabilityConstraints2433.2.7EconomicGeneratin~Unit.Size2463.3SYSTEMCONFIGURATIONS:DEFINITIONOFCASESANALYZED2463.3.1Case1:WithoutInterconnectionandWithoutUpperSusitnaProject.2463.3.2Case2:WithInterconnection,WithoutUpperSusitnaProject2473.3.3Case3:InterconnectedSystemWithUpperSusitnaProject2513.4RESULTSOFLOAD/RESOURCEANALYSES.2524.0SYSTEMPOWERCOSTANALYSES2874.1FACTORSDETERMININGTHECOSTOFPOWER2874.1.1CapitalCosts2874.1.2HeatRate2894.1.3Operation,Maintenance,andReplacementCosts2894.1.4FinancingDiscountRate2904.1.5PaybackPeriod2904.1.6AnnualPlantUtilizationFactor.2904.1.7UnitFuelCosts2904.1.8Genera'lInflationRate.2944.1.9ConstructionEscalationRate.294216 4.1.10FuelEscalationRate..2~44.2METHODOFCOMPUTINGTHEANNUALCOSTOFPOWERFROMINDIVIDUALGENERATINGFACILITIES2~44.3METHODOFCOMPUTINGAVERAGESYSTEMPOWERCOST29.64.4RESULTSOFSYSTEMCASHFLOWANDPOWERCOSTCALCULATIONS2~7217 3.13.23.33.43.53.63.73.83.93.103.114.14.24.34.44.54.64.74.84.94.10FIGURESRailbeltRegionPeakLoadsAnchorage-CookInlet~reaAnnualEnergyFairbanksAreaAnnualEnergyPlantUtilizationFactorversusPlantAgeRai1be1tRegionShowingtheWatanaandDevilCanyonDamsites,aPossibleRoutefortheInterconnection,andtheBelugaArea.Load/ResourceAnalysisforAnchorage-CookInletAreaWithoutInterconnectionandWithoutSusitnaProject(Case1).Load/ResourceAnalysisforAnchorage-CookInletAreaWithInterconnectionbutWithoutUpperSusitnaProject(Case2)Load/ResourceAnalysisforAnchorage-CookInletAreaWithInterconnectionandWithUpperSusitnaProjectComingOnLinein1994(Case3)Load/ResourceAnalysisforFairbanks-TananaValleyAreaWithoutInterconnectionandWithoutUpperSusitnaProject(Case1)Load/ResourceAnalysisforFairbanks-TananaValleyAreaWithInterconnectionbutWithoutUpperSusitnaProject·(Case2)Load/Resource-Ana1ysisTorFa;rbanks-TananaValleyAreaWithInterconnectionandWithUpperSusitnaProjectComingOnLinein1994(Case3)ComponentsoftheTotalAnnualCostofPowerEstimatesofFutureCoalPrices-.2%and7%EscalationEstimatesofFutureNaturalGasPrices-2%and7%EscalationEstimatesofFutureFuelOilandDieselPrices-2%and7%Escalation.PowerCostsforAnchorageLowLoadGrowthScenarioPowerCostsforAnchorageMediumLoadGrowthScenarioPowerCostsforAnchorageHighLoadGrowthScenarioPowerCostsforFairbanksLowloadGrowthScenarioPowerCostsforFairbanksMediumLoadGrowthScena~ioPowerCostsforFairbanksHighLoadGrowthScenario218233234235244249281282283284285286288291292293337338339340341342 TABLES3.63.53.73.4277232237227230231240239275240241248253ComparisonofPowerCostsforYear2005Anchorage-CookInletAreaPowerandEnergyRequirementsFairbanks-TananaValleyAre~PowerandEnergyRequirementsTotalPowerRequirements;Anchorage-CookInletAreaandFairbanks-TananaValleyAreaCombined.Existing(Fall-1978)GeneratingCapacitiesforAnchorage-CookInletAreaExisting(Fall-1978)GeneratingCapacitiesforFairbanks-Tanana.ValleyAreaAnchorage-CookInletAreaExistingCapacityandMaximumAnnualPlantUtilization(October1978).Fairbanks-TananaValleyAreaExistingCapacityandMaximumAnnualPlantUtilization(October1978}PlannedAdditionsforRailbeltRegion(1979-1995)TransmissionSystemAlternatives.Load/ResourceBalanceforCase3:MediumLoadGrowthScenario.ScheduleofPlantAdditions-(Megawatts)BaseCasesWithoutInterconnections3.12ScheduleofPlantAdditions-(Megawatts)CasesWithInterconnectionWithoutUpperSusitna.3.13ScheduleofPlantAdditions-(Megawatts)CasesWithInterconnectionWithUpperSusitnaComingOnLinein19942.13.13.23.33.83.93.103.114.14.24.34.44.54.64.7Anchorage-CockO~~Inflation.Anchorage-Cook5%Inflation.Anchorage-Cook0%Inflation.Anchorage-Cook5%Inflation.Anchorage,:,Cook0%Inflation.Anchorage.;.Cook5%Inflation.Anchorage-Cook0%Inflation.InletArea,LowLoadGrowthScenario,Case1,InletArea,LowLoadGro''JthScenario,Case1,InletArea,LowLoadGrowthScenario,Case2InletArea,LowLoadGrowthScenario,Case2,.......InletArea,LowLoadGrowthScenario,Case3,InletArea,LowLoadGrowthScenario,Case3,InletArea,MediumLoadGrowthScenario,Case1,299300301302303304305;219 TABLES(contd)4.8Anchorage~CookInletArea,MediumLoadGrowthScenario,Case1,5%Inflation.3064.9Anchorage-CookInletArea,MediumLoadGrowthScenario,Case2,0%Inflation.3074.10Anchorage-CookInletArea,MediumLoadGrowthScenario,Case2,5%Inflation'.3084;11Anchorage-CookInletArea,MediumLoadGrowthScenario,Case0%Inflation.3094.12Anchorage-CookInletArea,MediumLoadGrowthScenario,Case3,,5%Inflation.3104.13Anchorage-CookInletArea,HighLoadGrowthScenario,Case1,0%Inflation.311,4.14Anchorage-CookInletArea,HighLoadGrowthScenario,Case1,5%Inflation.3124.15Anchorage-CookInletArea,HighLoadGrowthScenario,Case2,0%Inflation.3134.164.174.184.194.204.214.22Anchorage-CookInletArea,HighLoadGrowthScenario,Case2,5%Inflation.Anchorage-CookInletArea,HighLoadGrowthScenario,Case3,0%Inflation.Anchorage-CookInletArea,HighLoadGrowthScenario,Case3,5%Inflation.~Fairbanks~TananaValleyArea,LowGrowthScenario,Case1,0%Inflation.Fairbanks-TananaValleyArea,LowGrowthScenari0,Case1,5%Inflation.Fairbanks-TananaValleyArea,LowGrowthScenario,Case2,0%Inflation.Fairbanks~TananaValleyArea,LowGrowthScenario,Case2,5%Inflation.3143153163173183193204.23Fairbanks-TananaValleyArea,LowGrowthScenario,Case3,0%Inflation.3214.24'Fairbanks-TananaValleyArea,LowGrowthScenario,Case3,5%Inflation.3224.25Fairbanks-Tanana ValleyArea,MediumGrowthScenario,Case1,0%Inflation.3234.26Fairbanks-TananaValleyArea,r~ediumGrowthScenario,Case1,5%Inflation.324220 TABLES(contd)4.27Fairbanks-TananaValleyArea,MediumGrowthScenario,Case2,"0%Inflation·3254.28Fairbanks-TananaValleyArea,MediumGrowthScenario,Case2,5%Inflation·3264.29Fairbanks-TananaValleyAr.ea,MediumGrowthScenario,Case3,0%Inflation·3274.30Fairbanks-TananaVa11eyArea,MediumGrowthScenario,Case3,5%Inflation·3284.31Fairbanks-TananaValleyArea,HighGrowthScenari0,Case1,"0%Inflation·329:4.32Fairbanks-TananaVa11eyArea,HighGrowthScenario,Case1,5%Inflation'.3304.33Fairbanks-TananaVa11eyArea,HighGrowthScenario,Case2,0%Inflation·3314.34Fairbanks-TananaValleyArea,HighGrowthScenario,Case2,5%Inflation·3324.35Fairbanks-TananaVa11eyArea,High"GrowthScenario,Case3,0%Inflation·333.4.36Fairbanks-TananaVa11eyArea,HighGrowthScenario,Case3,5~~Inflation·334221 LOAD/RESOURCEANDSYSTEMCOSTANALYSISFORTHERAILBELTREGIONOFALASKA-1978-2010PreparedfqrtheAlaskaPowerAdministrationbyBattellePacificNorthwestLaboratoriesJanuary19791.0INTRODUCTIONTheAlaskaRailbeltregionpresentssomeuniqueattributesforconsidera-tioninfuturepowersystemplanning.Theregioncurrentlyconsumes83%oftheState'selectricpowerandeventhelowerestimatesofelectricalloadgrowth(5%~erannum)fortheregionareabovethenationalaverage.TheState,andparticularlythisreg10n,isadifficultoneinwhichtoforecastloadgrowths.Thisdifficultyresultsfromthenatureoftheeconomicactivitybasebeinginfluencedbyexternalforcessuchasoilandgasdevelop-mentsandtransportationsystemswiththeircyclicaltendency.Also,sincetheeconomicbaseisstillnotlarge,theinjectionofacompetitivelyscaledindustrysuchasmajor~etroleumrefineryorelectrochemicalindustrycansig-nificantlyperturbaforecast.•AmajorshiftintheAlaskanRailbeltfuturepowergeneratingmodeappearsinevitable.TheCookInletRegion'scapacityispresentlydominatedbycombus-tionturbinesfiredbycurrentlylow-costnaturalgas;theFairbanks-NorthStar.Boroughbyamixofcoal-firedstearnturbinegenerationandoil-firedcombus-tionturbines.Theoilandgasbasedmodeofgeneration,however,arehighlyexposedtoinflationarypressures,externalmarketforces,andFederalregu1a-toryintervention.TheRailbeltregion,:,however,doeshaveanumberofoptionsopeninthefuture.Theseinclude:222 •Continueduseofoilandgasinexistingplants.•IncreasedcoalbasedthermalgenerationbothintheinteriorbasedontheHealyCoalFieldandintheCookInletRegionbasedonseveralcoalfields,includingtheverylargereservesintheBelugaRegion.•Developmentofthesignificanthydroelectricpotential,includingUpperSusitnaRiverandBradleyLake.• AtransmissionintertiebetweentheCookInletandFairbanks19adcentersisofobviousinterestasameansofincreasingre11abilityoralternatelyreducingadditionalgeneratingcapacityneededforreliability.MarketingofpowerfromUpperSusitnaprojectswillbedependentupo~suchan·intertie.Electricpowergenerationbywhatevermeansisaverycapitalintensiveactivity.Differentformsofgeneration,however,havedifferentlevelsofexposuretoinflationandescalationand,costcomparisonsonastraight$/kWofinstalledcapacitycanbemisleading.Thusahighercostperkilowatthydro-electricprojecthasthisexposurelargelylimitedtothetimeperiodduringplanningandconstruction.Ontheotherhand,afossilfueledplantfacesrisingfuelcostsaswellasoperatingandmaintenancecostsinthefuture.Regardlessofthesefactors,allgenerationoptionsarefacedwithlongleadtimesfromdecisiontoproceedtocommercialoperatingdate.ThepurposeofthisreportistoexaminetheprobabletimingofmajorgenerationandtransmissioninvestmentsandtheirimpactonsystempowercostsunderarangeofassumptionsaboutpowerdemandsandinflationandescalationratesforthefollowinggeneralRailbeltpowersupplystrategies:Case1.AlladditionalgeneratingcapacityassumedtobecoalfiredsteamturbineswithoutatransmissioninterconnectionbetweentheAnchorage-CookInletareaandtheFairbanks-TananaValleyarealoadcenters.Case2.Alladditionalgeneratingcapacityassumedtobecoalfiredsteamturbines,includingatransmissioninterconnection.Case3.AdditionalcapacitytoincludetheUpperSusitnaProject(includingtransmissionintertie)plusadditionalcoalasneeded..223hQ_7"::l:A()_an_1t: Thefirststepinvolvedinestimatingthecostofpowerfromalternativegenerationandtransmissionsystemconfigurationsistoperformaseriesofload/resourceanalyses.Theseanalysesdeterminethescheduleofmajorinvest-mentsbasedonassumptionsabouttheloadgrowth,thecapacityandpowerproduc-tionoftheprospectivegeneratingfacilities,andconstraintsastowhenthefacilitiescancomeonline.Theload/resourceanalysesprovideinformationontheannualpowerproduc-tionofthevarioustypesofgeneratingplants.Oncetheannualplantutiliza-tionsareknown,theycanbeusedinconjunctionwithestimatesofannualsystemcoststocalculatetheannualcostofproducingpowerfromthefacili-ties.Summingtheannualcostforgenerationandtransmissionofeachofthegeneratingfacilitiesgivesatotalcostfortheentiresystembeinganalyzed.Dividingthetotalannualcostbythepowerproducedgivesanaverageannualcostofpowerfortheentiresystem.Bycomparingtheaverageannualpowercostsovertheperiodofinterest(1978-2010)thealternativeconfigurationscanberankedbasedonthecostofpower."Allotherthingsbeingequal,thesystemconfigurationproducingpoweratthelowestcostshouldbeselectedasthemostdesirablesystem.ThereportwaspreparedoncontracttotheAlaskaPowerAdministration(APA)asinputtoAPAlspowermarketanalysisfortheUpperSusitnaProject.TheAPAfurnished,and15responsiblefor,alldataonpowerrequirements,costassump-tions,andcertainkeycriteriaforthestudy.ThebalanceofthecriteriaweredevelopedjointlybytheAPAandBattelle.Chapter2containsabriefsummaryoftheresultsofthestudy.Theload/resourceanalysesaredescribedinChapter3.Chapter4presentsthemethodol-ogyandresultsofthecashflowandpowercostcalculations.AppendixAcon-tainsthedatausedintheload/resourceanalyses.AppendixBcontainsalist-ingofthecomputermodel(AEPMOD)usedtoperformtheload/resourcematching.TheoutputofAEPMODforthecasesanalyzedinthisreportarepresentedinAppendixC.Appendix0containsalistingofthemodelusedtocomputethecostofpowerandAppendixEcontainssomeselectedresultsofECOST4modelruns.224 2.0SUMMARYANDCONCLUSIONSLoad/ResourceMatching•ForecastedpeakloadsfortheAnchorage/CookInletandtheFairbanks/TananaValleyloadcentershavebeenmatchedwithschedulesofplantaddi-tionsforlow,median,and"highforecastedloadgrowths.Thesewerereplicatedforcasesconsidering1)continuedseparationoftheloadcen-ters,2)interconnectionwithoutdevelopmentofUpperSusitnahydroelec-tricpower,3)interconnectionincludingdevelopmentoftheproposedUpper.Su?itnahydroelectricprojectsbeginning'in1994.•Thermalgeneratingcapacityadditionstotheyear2010wereestimatedasfollows:Case1:WithoutInterconnectionandUpperSusitnaAssumedLoadMegawattsGrowthAnchorageFairbanksTotalLowMedianHigh2600460082004718711471307154719671Case2:InterconnectionwithoutUpperSusitnaAssumedLoadMegawattsGrowthAnchorageFairbanksTotalLowMedianHigh2200420082004716711271267148719471Case3:InterconnectionwithUpperSusitnaAssumedLoadMegawattsGrowthAnchorageFairbanksTotalLowMedianHigh1000300066002251713711071'117133717671 •ProvisionoftheinterconnectionwithoutUpperSusitnareducesthermalplantadditionrequirementsby200to600MWovertheperiod.•InterconnectionwithUpperSus.itnareducesthermalplantadditionrequire-mentsby1500to1800MWdependingontheassumedloadgrowth.•Underthecriteriaused,theinterconnectioniscalledforin1986,1989,and1994forhigh,median;andlowloadgrowthcases,respectively,'with-outUpperSusitnaprojects.WithUpperSusitna,thecorrespondingdatesare'1986,1989,and1991.SystemPowerCost•FortheAnchorage-CookInletloadcenterconstructionoftheinter-connectionreducesthecostofpowercomparedtothecasewithoutaninterconnection~•FortheAnchorage~CookInletareainclusionoftheUpperSusitnaprojectintothesystemgenerallyraisesthecostofpowerabovetheothercasesduringthefirst2to4yearsaftertheWatanaDamcomes.on1inewithresultsinlowerpowercostsduringthe1996-2010timeperiod.~FortheFairbanks-TananaValleyareaconstructionoftheinterconnectionagaingenerallyreducesthecostofpower.•FortheFairbanks-TananaValleyloadcenterinclusionoftheUpperSusitnaprojectgenerallyraisesthecostofpowerabovethecasewiththe.inter-connectionforabout2yearsaftertheWatanaDamcomesonlinebut,aswiththeAnchorage-CookInletarea,resultsinlowerpowercostsduringthe1996-2010timeperiod~•Table2.1presentsacomparisonofthecostsofpowerintheyear2005forthecasesevaluatedinthereportusingthecasewithouteithertheinterconnectionortheUpperSusitnaprojects(Case1)asthebase.ThecostsofpowercomputedinCase1arecomparedtocaseswiththeinter-connection(Case2),andwithUpperSusitnacomingonlinein1994(Case3).Asshown,thecostsofpowerarereducedbelowthecostofpowerforCase1inbutonecase."Thisreductionvariesfrom4.3%to~9.3%depend-inguponthesituation.226 TABLE2.1.ComparisonofPowerCostsforYear2005PercentChangeinCostofPowerBelowCase15%InflationAnchorageFairbanksHighMedianLowHighMedianLowCase2-4.3-10.1-12.2+8.9-9.6 -4.2Case3-10.5-30.3-39.3-8.9-30.8-26.3227 3.0LOAD/RESOURCEANALYSESTheload/resourceanalysisisintendedtomatchforecastedelectricpower..requirementswithappropriategeneratingcapabilityadditions.Theanalysisschedulesnewplantadditions,keepstrackofolderplantretirements,andcom-putestheloadingofinstalled'capacityonayear-by-yearbasisovertheperiod1978to2010.Theanalysisschedulestheadditionstoassurethatbothpeakloadsandenergyrequirements(includingreserves)aremetonayear-by-yearbasiswiththeleastamountofinstalledcapacityandwithgeneratingplantsloadedinanypreselectedorder,typicallyincrueroflowesttohighestmarginalpowercosts.Anumberoffactorsmustbetakenintoaccount:1.Forecastedloadsintermsofpeakpowerrequirementsinmegawatts(MW)andannualenergyrequirementsinmillionsofkillowatthours(MMkWh).2.Thestockofexistinggeneratingcapacitybytype,size,yearofretirement,andmaximumallowableplantfactor.3.Desiredreliabilityreservemargintoprovideinsuranceagainstforcedoutages,unForeseendelaysinplantavailability,orloadqrowthsinexcessofthoseanticipated.4.Transmissionanddistributionlosses.5.Constructionscheduleconstraints;i.e.,leadtimesnecessarybetweenunitselectionandfirstpoweronlinedate.6.Plantavailabilityconstraintsbasedontypesandage.generallyhaveloweravailabilityatthestartandendlife.)(Thermalplantsoftheireconomic•7.Assumptionsabouttheeconomicsizeoffuturegeneratingplantsinrelationto-theloads.8.Systemconfiguration;i.e.,interconnections,alternativesitingstrategies.228 3.1ANALYSISMETHODOLOGYTheload/resourcematchingisdoneenanannualbasis.TheAlaskan.elec-tricutility~stemsexperiencetheirannualpeakloadrequirementsduringthewintermonthsandresourcesmustbeavailabletomeetthesepeakloads.DuringrecentyearstheannualloadfactorforRailbeltelectricaldemandhastypi-.callybeenabout46-50%.Itisexpectedtoremainintherangeof50-52%duringthetimehorizonofthisstudy.Theexistingandplannedfuturegener-atingcapacityintheRailbeltregioniscapable~of,operatingatacapacityfactoreitherequaltoorgreaterthan50%.Becauseofthis,thedecisiontoaddnewcapacitywillusuallybebasedontheneedforcapacity(kW)ratherthanenergy(kWh).Thusinthisanalysiscapacity additionsarescheduledbasedonpeakloadsratherthanuponaverageannualenergy.Thegeneralapproachtoload/resourceanalysisistosummarizeexistingandplannedgrossresourcesforeachyear,adjustthemdownwardforareliabil-itymarginandforsystemtransmissionlossestoarriveatnetre~9urces.Ifthesenetresourcesexceedthecriticalperiodloadfortheyearbeinganalyzed,plantadditionsarenotcalledupandtheanalysisproceedstothenextyearandisrepeated~Atsomepoint,the'netresourceswillnotmeettheforecastedpeakloadsandadditionalcapacitymustbeadded.Also,foreachyear,theenergygeneratedbyeachclassofplants(e.g.,hydro,steamturgine,combus-tionturbine,anddieseliscomputedsothatplantutilizationfactorsareavailableforreviewandsystemenergycostscanbedeveloped.Thestepwisecalculationsarecontinuedtotheendoftheperiodbeingstudies(2010).3.2ASSUMPTIONS3.2.1ForecastedPowerandEnergyRequirementsTheanalysesarebasedonforecastspreparedbytheAlaskaPowerAdminis-trationforboththeAnchorage-CookInletandtheFairbanks-TananaValleyareas.Probablehighandlowboundswereprovidedalongwithmedianforecasts.ThesearepresentedinTables3.1through3.3andareshowngraphicallyinFigures3.1through3.3.Inadditiontoutilityloads,Anchorage-CookInletforecastsincludebothnationaldefenseandindustrialloadsandtheFairbanks-TananaValleyforecastsincludenationaldefenseloads.229 TABLE3.l.Anchorage-CookInletAreaPowerandEnergyRequirementsPEAKPOWER19771/198019851990 199520002025MW-MWMWt~wMWMWMWUTILITYHigh6201,0001,5152,1503,1807,240Median4245708101,1151,5002,0453,370Low5256508201,0401,3201,520NATIONALDEFENSEHigh3132 34363848Median413030 30303030Low29 28 26242418INDUSTRIALHigh32344 3995416831,615Median,-53264119 199278660low27597087104250TOTALHigh6831,3761,9482,7273,9018,903Median490632904.1,2641,7292,3534,060low5817379161,1511,4481,788ANNUALENERGYUTILITYGWhllGWh GWh GWhGWhGHhGWh--High2,7204,.3.-"'\F9,43013,92031,700Median1,7902,5003,5304)'_6,5708,96014,750Low2,3002,8403,50tJ,+,5f'C'3,7706,670NATIONALDEFENSEHigh135142149157165211Median131131 131131131131131Low12712111510510481INDUSTRIALHigh1701,8i()2,1002,8403,5908,490Median701703.:16301,0501,4603,470Low141312 3704605501,310TOTALHigh3,0256,3428,87912,427 17,67540,401Median1,9912,8014,0015,6417,75110,551 18,351Low2,5683,2734,0755,1256,4248,061l!MW=MegawattsGWh=Gigawatt-hours(EquivalenttoMMkWh=Millionsofkilowatt-hours)Source:AlaskaPowerAdministration,October1978230 TABLE3.2.Fairbanks-TananaValleyAreaPowerandEnergyRequirementsPEAKPOWER19771/198019851GG0199520002025MW-MWr1W~1W~1WMWMWUTILITYHigh158,2443584956851,443.Median119150211281358452689Low142180219258297329NATIONALDEFENSEHigh495154565976.Median4147 4747 47 47 47.Low464442403829TOTALHigh2072954125517441,519Median160197258328405 499736Low188224261298335 358ANNUALENERGYGWhllGWhGWhGWhGWhGi~hGWhUTILITYHigh6901,0701,5702,1703,0006,320Median4836559251,2301,5701,9803,020Low620 7909601,1301,3001,440NATIONALDEFENSEHigh213224235247260333Median207207207207 207207207Low203193184175 166129TOTALHigh9031,2941,8052,4173,2606,653Median6908621,1321,4371,7772,1873,227Low8239831,1441,3051,4661,569l!MW=t1tegawattsGWh.=Gigawatt-hours(EquivalenttoMMkWh=Millionsofkilowatt-hours)Source:AlaskaPowerAdministration,October1978231 TABLE3.3.TotalPowerRequirements;Anchorage-CookInletAreaandFairbanks-TananaValleyAreaCo~inedPEAKPOWER19771/198019851990 199520002025MW-MWMWMWMW MWr1WTOTALHigh8901,6712,360 3,2784,64510,422Median6508291,1621,5922,1342,8524,796Low7699611,1771,4491,7832,146ANNUALENERGYGhhltGWhGWhG~~hGWh GWh GWhTOTALHigh3,9287,63610,68414,84420,93547,054Median2,6813,6635,·1337,0789,52812,73821,578Low3,3914,2565,2196,4307,8909,63011r1W=MegawattsGWh=Gigawatt-hours(EquivalenttoMMkWh=Milli~nsofkilowatt-hours)Source:AlaskaPowef'Administration,October232 FAIRBANKS-TANANAVALLEYAREAANCHORAGE-COOKINLETAREA20030002000600050004000tnLOWl-I-<t:=s:<t:(;)1000LJ..!:2:9000800<t:0-J700~<t:600l.l.J0-500400300LOW100·'---__......I---:;.__...I.-__~~____O"____""'.......1980198519901995200020052010FIGURE3.1.Rai1be1tRegionPeakLoads233 60,00050,00040,00030,000-.V).~20,000o1=•.~.~o...J~z10,000o9000...J...J.8000~..7000>-~.6000u.Ja'55000-oJ<~4000z<300020001000--"!"---'"____--"-__......I-'-__--"'......1980198519901995200020052010FIGURE3.2.Anchorage-CookInletAreaAnnualEnergy./234 3000600050004000en2000e:::~0=F1=LOW~0-oJ~1000z0900-oJ800-oJ~700>600'c.::le:::UJz500loU-oJ:§400zZ<C300•.200100'--__.-.I.-__--.1...L.-__--'-__---'''__........198019851990199520002005.2010·FIGURE3.3.FairbanksAreaAnnualEnergy235 TheAlaskaPowerAdministrationdataindicatethatapproximately80%oftheRailbeltregionloadsareexpectedtobein:heAnchorage-CookInletarea.Theseloadshavebeeninterpretedasrecognizingdistributionlosses.3.2.2ExistingandPlannedGeneratingCapacityTheexistingstockofgen~ratingcapacityfortheAnchorage-CookInletareaandtheFairbanks-TananaValleyareaispresentedinTables3.4and3.5,respectively..ThetotalexistingcapacitiesandmaximumplantutilizationfactorsforthevariousgeneratingtypesfortheAnchorage-CookInletareaandtheFairbanks-TananaValleyareaareshownin.Tables3.6and3.7,respectively..-"Theload/resourcematchingana'ysesusethesetotalsforthefirstyearoftheanalyses(1978-1979).Generatingcapacityadditionscanbespecifiedtobeaddedinoneoftwoways.Itcaneitherbeaddedinaspecifiedyearorcanbeaddedwhenitisrequiredtomaintainadequategeneratingcapacity.Intheformercasethegeneratingunitsareaddedwhethertheyarerequiredornot.Theplannedaddi-tionsshowninTable3.8arebroughtonlineintheyearsspecified.Nationaldefensegeneratingunitsareassumedtobereplacedinsteamturbinegeneratingunitsthesameyearastheyareretired.(SeeSectionS.2.7~oradiscussionoftheunitsa~jedasrequiredtomaintainadequategeneratingcapacity.)3.2.3ReserveMarginUtilitysystemsinvariablycarryareservemarginofgeneratingandtrans-missioncapacityasinsuranceagainstlossofloa",unexpected.peakrequire-mentsasaresultofsevereweather,loadgrowthsmorerapidthananticipated,adverse.hydroelectricconditions,anddelaysinthecommercialoperationofnewgeneration.Themostappropriatereservemarginwillvaryfromsystemtosystemdependingonthenatureoftheloadsanqtypesofresourcesandspecialfactors.Typically,areservecapacityatpeakof20%isusednationally.However,thiscanvarytoaslowas12%asisthepresentcaseforthePaci.ficNorthwestwithitspredominanceofreliab1ehydropowerandinterruptab1eloads.236 TABLE3.4.Existing(Fall1978)GeneratingCapacitiesforAnchorage-CookInletAreaTypeofCapacityRetirementUnitReference/NameLocationGeneration(kW)YearANCHORAGEMUNICIPALLIGHTANDPOWER(AML&P)Deise1AnchorageDiesel2,2001982Unit1AnchorageS.C.C.T.*15,1301982Unit2AnchorageS.C.C.T.15,1301984Unit3AnchorageS.C.C.T.18,6501988Unit4AnchorageS.C.C.T.31,7001992Unit5AnchorageS.C.C.T.36,0001995·Unit6Anchorage·C.C.16,500.1995Subtotal137,500(a)CHUGACHELECTRICASSOCIATION(CEA)BelugaUnit1BelugaS.C.C.T.}33,0001988Unit2BelugaS.C.C.T.Unit3BelugaR.C.C.T.*54,6001993Unit4BelugaS.C.COT.9,3001996Unit5BelugaR.C.C.T.65,0001995Unit6BelugaS.C.C.T.67,8101996Unit7BelugaS.C.C.T.68,000Ce)1996Unit8BelugaC.C.32,2001996BerniceLakeUnit1BerniceLakeS.C.C.T.8,3701983.Unit2BerniceLakeS.C.C.T.17,860·1992Unit3BerniceLakeS.C.C.T.18,0001998CooperLakeCooperLakeHydro16,500NAInternationalUnit 1S.C.C.T.}30,5101985Unit2S.C.C.T.Unit3S.C.C.T.18,1401991KnikArmCombinedS.T.*1O,oooCf)1987Subtotal449,790MATANUSKAELECTRICASSOCIATION(MEA)TalkeetnaTalkeetnaDiesel600(b)1993HOMERELECTRICASSOCIATION(HEA)EnglishBayEng1ishBayDiesel1001993-Homer&Kenaie.300(c)CombinedHomerDiesel1993HomerCombinedHomerS.C.C.T.7,000(d)1995PortGrahamCombinedPortGrahamDiesel2001993237 TABLE3.4.(contd)NA198819911985'1991198019851996Retirement~.Year30,00030,00012,300(g)40,5007,3002,000'49,800Capacity_(k~(contd).1,5009,1003,000(b)2,5005,500(APA)DieselHydrqSubtotalNATIONALDEFENSES.T.DieselDieselSubtotalINDUSTRIALS.C;C.T.EklutnaSewardSubtotalALASKAPOWERADMINISTRATIONKenaiFt.Richardson/EmendorfSewardCombinedTypeofUnitReference/NameLocationGenerationHOMERELECTRICASSOCIATION(HEA)SeldoviaCombinedSeldoviaDieselSubtotalSEWARDELECTRICSYSTEM(SES)EklutnaTOTAL685,290*S.C.C.T.-SimpleCycleCombustionTurbineR.C.C.T.-RegenerativeCycleCombustionTurbineS.T.-SteamTurbineC.C.-CombinedCycle'(a)Capacitiesforindividualunitsarefromsources1and2.Thesesumto118,810kW.Totalshownisfromsource2.(b)Standby(c)LeasedtoCEA(d)LeasedtoHEAbyGoldenValleyElectricAssociationfor1977-1979.(e)Includedinthisstudy,butlate1978plansaretodeferBetuga8until1980anddoublethecapacity.(f)Nameplatecapacityderatedto10,000KWfrom14,500KW.(g)Recentdatashowsindustrialloadtobe25,000KWratherthan12,300KW.SOURCES:I.ElectricPowerinAlaska,1976-1995,ISER,UniversityofAlaska,'pp.J.5.2-7.4,August1976.2.AlaskaElectricPowerStatistics1960-1976,AlaskaPowerAdministra-tion,pp.15-17,July1977.3.1976PowerSystemStudy,ChugachElectricAssociation,Inc.,TippettandGee,Dallas,TX,p.7,March1976.4.AlaskaPowerAdministration,August1978.238 TABLE3.5.Existing(Fall'1978)GeneratingCapacitiesforFairbanks-TananaValleyAreaUnitReferenceNameLocationTypeGenerationCapacity(kW)YearofRetirementFAIRBANKSMUNICIPALUTILITIESSYSTEM(FMUS)Chena2FairbanksS.T.2,0001988Chena3FairbanksS.T.1,5001988Chena1FairbanksS.T.·.5,0001988Chena4FairbanksS.C.C.T.5,3501983Diesel1FairbanksDiesel2,6641988··Diesel2FairbanksDiesel2,6651988Diesel3FairbanksDiesel2,6651988Chena·5FairbanksS.T.20,0002005Chena6FairbanksS.C.C.T.23,5001996Subtotal65,345GOLDENVALLEYELECTRICASSOCIATION(GVEA)FairbanksDiesel24,0001984Healy#1HealyS.T.25,0002002FairbanksS.C.C.T.40,0001992DeltaDiesel5001988NorthPole#1NorthPoleS.C.C.T.70,0001997NorthPole#2NorthPoleS.C.C.T.70,0001997Subtotal229,500NATIONALDEFENSECombiJledDiesel14,0001988ClearA.F.B.andFt.GreelyS.T.24,5001995Ft.Wainwrig'htand32,000(a)EilsonA.F.B.S.T.1990Subtotal70,500(a)5MWplantatEilsonA.F.B.installedin1970andold1.5MWplant-atFt.Wainwrightwereinadvertantlyomitted.SOURCE:1.InteriorAlaskaEnergyAnalysisTeam,FinalReport,June1977.2.AlaskaPowerAdministration,August1978.239 TABLE3.6.Anchorage-CookInletAreaExistingCapacityandMaximumAnnualPlantUtilization(October1978)Hydro•SteamElectric.•CombustionTurbineDieselCapacity(MW)46.550.5575.0119.13PlantUtilization(%)50.075.050.015.0TABLC~.Fairbanks-TananaValleyAreaExistingCapacityandMaximumAnnualPlantUtilization(October1978)HydroSteamElectricCombustionTurbineDieselCapacity(MW)o110208.946240PlantUtilization.(%)50.075.050.010.0 .TABLE3.8.PlannedAdditionsforRai1beltRegion(1979-1995).ANCHORAGEMUNICIPALLIGHTANDPOWER(AML&P)1979AnchorageS.C.C.T.1979.AnchorageC.C.UnitReference!YearofNameInstallationUnit7Unit6LocationTypeofGenerationCapacity(kW)'"5'OOO(a)0,(b)16,500Beluga#9X-lBerniceLake#4X-2BerniceLake#5CHUGACHELECTRICASSOCIATION1979Beluga19801981BerniceLake19821984BerniceLake(CEA)C.C.S.C.C.T.S.C.C.T.S.C.C.T.S.C.C.T.32,200(c)100,00018,000100,00018,000Healy#2BradleyLakeGOLOENVALLEYELECTRICASSOCIATION(GVEA)AsRequiredHealyS.T.ALASKAPOWERADMINISTRATION(APA)1985BradleyLakeHydroNATIONALDEFENSE1985Ft.RichardsonandEmendorfA.F.G.S.T.1988FairbanksCombinedS.T.1990Ft.GreelyandClearA.F.B.s.T.1991Ft.RichardsonandEmendo.rfA.F.B.S.T.1995Ft.GreelyandCleanA.F.B.S.T.100,00070,0007,30014,00032,00042,50024,500(a)Unit#7isasimplecyclecombustionturbineunitwhichalsosuppliesexhaustheattoUnit#6.(b)Thisincreasereflectstheincreaseincapacity~esultingfromtheadditionofUnit#7..(c)Beluga#9isasteamunitadditiontoBeluga#7(convertsthesetoa100MWcombinedcycleunit).SOURCES:1.1976PowerSystemStudY,ChugachElectricAssociation,Inc.,TippettandGee,Dallas,TX,pp.7and25,March1976.2.ElectricPowerinAlaska,1976-1995,ISER,UniversityofAlaska,pp.J~5~2-7i4~August1976..3.AlaskaPower'Administration,August1978.241 SinceareservemargineffectivelYincreasestheamountofgeneratingCc.ityinplaceatanygiventime~itdoescontributecoststothesystem.Therefore,anexcessivereservemarginistobeavoidedwhileatthe~ametimerecognizingthataninadequatereservemargincould~onoutage~resultinawidevarietyofsocialcosts.Forthepurposesofthisstudy~theAlaskaPowerAdministrationhassuggestedthattheanalysisbebasedonreservemarginsof25%and20%fornon-interconnectedloadcentersandtheinterconnectedsystems,respectively.Inthefuture~amorerefinedanalysisofthedesiredreservemarginappears'warranted.3.2.4TransmissionLossesTransmissionlossesmustbeaddedtoforecastsofpeakandenergyloadstoestablishnetcapacityandenergyattheplantsubstations.TheAlaskaPowerAdministrationexpectslossesasfollows:%Capacity5Energy1.5Theresultsoftheload/resourceanalysisarethusinnetdeliverablecapacityandenergyanddonetincludeenergyandcapacityrequiredforinternalplantoperations.Theabovelossesarereasonablyapplicablefortheindependentoperation.oftheloadcenters~forinterconnectedsystemsincludingtheUpperSusitnaprojectandforconfigurationswithfuturegenerationcapacityadditionsbeingdistributedproportionallyneartheloadcenters.Inthecaseofinterconnec-tionwithoutUpperSusitnaandwithatendencytocentralizeRailbeltthermalgeneration~thetransmissionlossesmaybeconsiderablyhigherasdiscussedlaterinSection3.2.8.3.2.5'constructionScheduleConstraintsDuetotheleadtimesnecessaryforthepermitprocessesandconstruction~generatingunitandsiteselectionmusttakeplaceanumberofyearsinadvancer,ij242rI\I oftheforecasteddatewhentheunitscommercialoperation\'Iill·berequired.Forcoal-firedthermalplants,thePacificNorthwestUtilitiesConferenceCommitteeestimatesa62month(5.2years)periodfromfinalsiteselectiontocommercialoperationforplantsinthe500MWandhigherrangebasedonrecentU.S.experience.AlthoughindividualthermalplantcapacitiesappropriatetoAlaska'sloadsaresomewhatsmallerandmayrequirelessfielderectionwork,theconstructionseasonisshorterandthe5to6yearschedulingperiodappearsreasonable.ForthepotentialUpperSusitna~ydroelectricpro~ects,thescaleofeffortismoredemandingandincreasedsiteevaluationisnecessary.CurrentunderstandingisthattheWatanaDamandpowerplantcouldbebroughttocommer-cialoperationby1994,followedbyDevilCanyonnosoonerthan1998.Atransmissioninterconnecti{)nbetweenAnchorage-CookInletandFairbanks~Tanana"ValleycouldbebroughtintoservicepriortocompletionofWatana,possiblyasearlyas1986.Theload/resourceanalysistechnologyrecognizestheaboveschedulecon-straintsbynotallowingcallupofnewgenerationortransmissioncapacitythatcouldnotbemadeavailable.3.2.6PlantAvailabilityConstraintsGeneratingandtransmissionplantavailabilitycanbeexpressedintermsofmaximumandminimumplantutilizationfactors(PUF).Thesefactorsareprimarilydependentuponplanttypeandplantage.Forpurposesofthisanaly~:siswehaveassumedthefollowingeconomicfacilitylifetimesafterwhichthefacilityisretiredfromservice.(l)YearsCoal-FiredThermalGeneration35Oil-FiredSteamGeneration35Gas-FiredC~mbustionTurbine20Oil-FiredCombustionTurbine20HydroelectricGeneration50(l)SeeTables3.4and3.5fordatesofexpectedretirementsforexistingsystems.'j)il243 Duetothenatureofthesystem~someplantscouldberetiredfromservicept~totheexpirationoftheireconomiclife.In-actualpractice~however,itisexpectedthatutilitiesmayelecttoretaintheunitsonstandby.Inordertoassuretheiravailabilityinemergencies,theutilitieswillperiodi-callyoperatethe\unitstomakesuretheyareinworkingcondition.Experiencehasshownthatlargethermalplantsexperiencealearningcurveduringthefirstfewye'arsofoperationasIIbugs"areworkedout.Oncepastthisperiodtheyreachamaxi~umthataliowsforscheduledmaintenanceandreplacementconductedduringtheoff-peakseason.Towardtheendoftheeconomiclife,increasedfrequencyanddurationofoutagesformaintenanceusuallyoccurandthemaximumplantutilizationfacto-rdeclires.Forpurposesofthisanalysis,wehaveassumedconstt'aintsonthemaximumPUFfornewcoal-firedsteamelectricplantsasshowninFigure3.4.Ii8070...--;s.l1.......600;;oI-U~50zo.-!;;:40N.-~.-l-=>30I-Z<:~0.2010o105o1520253035PLANTAGE(YEARS)FIGURE3.4.PlantUtilizationFactorversusPlantAge244 Othertypesofgeneratingcapacityareallowedtorunat.theirmaximumPUFfromthestart..Fornewcapacityandmosttypesofexistingcapacity,thefollowingmaximumPUF?areassumed:MaximumPlantUtilization(%)Hydro50.0SteamElectric75.0CombustionTurbine50.0Diesel10.0Hydroelectricgenerationsystems,asaresultoftheirstorageabilityandconservativeratings,canmakeadditionalpo~eravailableforpeakingandittsassumedtheycanbescheduledat115%ofdesigncapacityforthisservice.AspointedoutearlierinSection3.1,thepeakdemandduringthewinterusuallydeterminestheamountofgeneratingcapacityrequiredratherthantheannualenergy.Becauseofthis,somegeneratingunitsareutilizedatlessthantheirmaximumannualplantutilizationfactors.Thedecisionastowhichunitsshouldnotbeloadedisusuallybasedonthemargincostofoperatingthefacilities.Inthisanalysisitisassumedthatdieselcapacityhasthehighestmarginoperatingcostfollowedbycombustionturbines,steamturbinesandhydroelectriccapacityinthatorder.ItisassumedthatdieselPUFscanbereducedtoO~OwhilethePUFsforcombustionturbineandsteamelectricIcapacityisnotallowedtogobelow10%.Transmissionplantavailabilityisgenerallynotasscheduleconstrained.asaregeneratingplantswiththeirlongleadtimes.Forpurposesoftheseanalyses,theinterconnectionbetweentheAnchorage-CookInletareaandtheFairbanks-TananaValleyareawillbeprovided3yearsbeforethecompletionoftheWatanadamorwhentheHealy1(existing25MW)andHealy2(planned100MWnet)plantsbecomefullyloaded,whicheveroccursfirst.(2)ThisassumptJonineffectplacesoil-firedplantsservingtheareaonstandbyafterthatdate.(2)Itwillprobablybedesirabletoprovideatleastaportionoftheinter-connectionpriortoWatanadateon-lineasasourceofpowerforconstruction.245 3.2.7EconomicGeneratingUnitSizeTheselectionofoptimumgeneratingsizec~nbeacomplexprocessinvolv-inguncertainassumptionsregardingprobabilityoffutureloadgrowthpaths,desirabilityofsizingindividualunitsincomp~rablesizesandtypesforeachofmaintenance.assuringthatsystemreliabilityisnotpenalizedbyadditionoftoolargeasingleunit.'smoothingofconstructionschedulesforpossiblemultiunitplants.andmaintainingassmallaspossibledeparturefromthedesiredreliabilitymargin.Afulloptimizationdoesnotappearwarrantedatthisstageandisbeyondthescopeofthisanalysis.Thusforthepurposesofthisstudy,thefirstsixcoal-firedsteamelectricplantsintheFairbanks--ananaValleyareaareassumedtobe100MWunits.Anyadditionalunitsareassumedtobe200MWunits.IntheAnchorage-CookInletareathefirstfivecoal-firedsteamelectricplantsareassumedtobe200MWunits,whileanyadditionalplantsareassumedtobe400MWunits.Thesesizeranges,thoughprobablynotexactoptimums,appearreasonableblocksizesforintroductionandtypicallybecomefullyloadedatabout10%ofplant1ife.3.3SYSTeMCONFIGURATIONS:DEFINITIONOFCASESANALYZED3.3.1Case1:WithoutInterconnectionandWithoutUpperSusitnaProjectThebasecaseconsistsofpowersupplytotheAnchorage-CookInletandFairbanks-TananaValleyonanoninterconnectedbasis.Inthisinstance,nopowerisavailablefromtheUpperSusitnaproject.FuturecapacityadditionsfortheAnchorage-CookInletloadcenterareassumedtobenear-mine-mouthcoal-firedunitslocatedontheIf,estsideofCookInlet-witha.nominal50-miletransmissiondistanceusingtwo345kVcircuitswithacapacityof1600MW.Capitalcostofthistransmissionsystemis$228millioninOctober1978prices.Furthercapacityadditionsfor-theFairbanks-TananaValleyloadcenterareassumedtobecoal-firedunitswithanominal100-miletransmissiondistance.The'Healysiteisusedasaproxyrecognizing,however,thatthePreventionofSignificantDeterioration(PSD)provisionsoftheCleanAirActmayprec1,ude246 thesitingofadditionalplantsbeyondtheplannedHealy2100MWunit.A230kVsinglecircuitwilltransmitupto400MWanda230kVdoublecircuit,800MW.Capitalcostsare$44millionand$70million,respectively.Table3.9providesasummaryofthetransmissionsystemalternatives.AmapoftheRailbeltregionshowingtheWatanaandDevilCanyondamsites,apossibleroutefortheinterconnection,andtheBelugaareaispresentedinFigure3.5.3.3.2Case2:WithInterconnection,WithoutUpperSusitnaProjectInthecaseofaninterconnectedsystemwithouttheUpperSusitnaprojectandallnewcapacitycoalfired,theload/resource'analysisisnotasstraight-forwar9.inthatitisnotreadilyapparentwhatstrategyforsitingplantsshouldbefollowed.Twoprimaryoptionsareapparent:1.,Allcoalplantssitedatasinglelocation(l)(ConcentratedSiting)•.-Advantagesa)Lowercapitalandoperatingcostsforgeneration.b)Economiesofscalecan.beachieved.'c)Sitingproblemsintheinteriormaybeavoided.Disadvantagesa)Highertransmissionlosses(andcosts)areincurredforthefractionofpowerflowingtotheFairbanks-TananaValleyloadcenter.Thesecostsmaycanceloutsavingsfromtheadvantages.b)Thelatterareabecomesstronglydependentuponreliabilityofthetransmissionsystem--possiblytothepointofrequiringasecondcircuitormaintenanceofadditiona1standbycombustionturbinecapac;ty.c.}Anyadverseenvironmentaleffectsarebornebyasingleareanotnecessarilybenefitinginproportion.2.CoalPIantsSitedinProportiontoRelativeLoadGrowth(DistributedSiting)•(1)Forthepurposesofthisanalysis,mine~mouthlocationatBelugaisused-asaproxy.247 TABLE 3.9.Transmission System A1ternatives(1) Approx. Capacity Capacity Investment Location Ci rcul t t~H Loss %Cost -~$/kW-- Isolated Load Centers Healy -Fairbanks 100 miles 230 kV Single 400 6 44 110 230 kV Double 800 6 70 88 Beluga -Anchorage 100 miles 345 kV Single 400 2 114 285 800 3 114 142 l>.)Two 345 kV Single 800 2 228 285oIloo 00 1600 3 228 142 Interconnected Without Susitna Anchorage -Healy 200 miles 230 kV Single 200 6 .88 293 300 8 88 225 345 kV Si ng1 e 400 3 228 570 560 5 228 407 Interconnection With Susitna 157'3 (2)5 471 (299 ) (1)Source:Alaska Power Administration (2)Actual peak power availability could be about 15%higher or 1808 MW. ALASKAPOWERADMINISTRATIONoSCALE50100MileFIGURE3.5.RailbeltRegionShowingtheWatanaandDevilCanyonDamsites,aPossibleRoutefortheInterconnection,andtheBelugaArea249 Advantagesa)Theinterconnectionbeccmeslightlyloaded,thusreducingtransmissionlossestosomedegreealthoughcharginglosseswouldcontinue.b)Transmissioninterconnectionreliabilitydependenceisreducedastheintertieassumesmore~facapacityreservecharacteristic.c)Environmentalburdensaredistributed,possiblywithmoreequity.Disadvantagesa)Possibleeconomiesofscalearelost.b)GenerationcostsintheFairbanks-Tanana·Valleyareincreased.c)Sitingproblemsrelatedtometeorologicalconsiderationsmayresultinthelatterarea..Inthis~eportcoalplantsareassumedtobesitedinproportiontotherelativeloadgrowthsofthetwoloadcenters.AswithCase1,additionalcoal-firedgeneratingunitsaresitedatBelugatoservetheAnchorage-CookInletareaandatHealy/NenanatoservetheFairbanks-TananaValleyareas.Thetransmissioninterconnectionisusedforcapacityreserveallowingthereserver:1.rginforbothloadcenterstobereducedfrom25%to20%(seeSection3.2.~Underthisscenariothereisnonetenergytransferduringanysingleyear.Ieoneloadcenterislowoncapacitytheotherloadcenterprovidestheadditionalcapacityrequiredassumingithasasurplus.Ifnosurplusexiststheoriginalloadcentermustaddcapacity.TheinterconnectionisassumedtobebroughtonlineinthesameyearastheHealy2coalplantbecomes.fullyloadedandnewgeneratingcapacitywouldberequiredinthe.Fairbanks-TananaValleyarea.Additionoftheinterconnec-tionallowstheFairbanks-TananaValleyareatogetcapacityreservefromtheAnchorage-CookInletArea.ThisallowstheFairbanksareatopostponetheconstructionofadditionalcapacityby2to6yearsdependinguponthescenario.Inthehighloadgrowthcasetheinterconnectionwouldbecompletedin1986,inthemediumloadgrowthcaseitwouldcomeonlinein1989,andinthe'owloadgrowthcaseitwouldcomeonlinein1994.Inallcases45%ofthe:ostoftheinterconnectionisassignedtotheFairbanks~TananaValleyload:enter.250 3.3.3Case3:Interconnected'SystemWithUpperSusitnaProjectInadditiontotheinterconnectiondescribedintheprevioussection,Case3includestwohydroelectricgeneratingfacilities.TheWatanadamisscheduledtocome'onlinein1994.Thedateisassumedtobethesameforallthreeloadgrowthscenarios.TheDevilCanyondamisassumedtocomeonline.'assoonas'requiredfollowing1994butnotbefore1998.Itisassumeditwouldtakeatleast4·yearstocompletetheDevilCanyondamfollowingcomple-tionoftheWatanadam.ItturnsoutthattheDevilCanyondamisrequired,in1998inthemediumofhighloadgrowthscenariosbutnotuntil1999intheTowloadgrowthscenario.Becauseofreservoirfillingrequirementsitisassumedthatbothdam~wiTltake2y~arstoreachfuncapacityandpoweroutput.Thecapacities,powerproductionandplantutilizationfactorsforthetwodams'areshowbelow.WatanaCapacityEnergyUtilizationYear(MW)(MMkWh)(%)1703308050.02+795348050.0DevilCanyon1689302050.02+778341050.0Forthemediumandhighloadgrowththetransmissioninterconnection'isassumedtocomeonlinein1989and1986respectively;thesameyearsasforCase.2.Inthelowloadgrowthscenariotheinterconnectioncomeson1inein1991rather"than1994.This'earliercompletiondatewillallowtheWatanadamconstructionsitetobesuppliedwithpowerfromeithertheAnchorage-CookInletareaortheFairbanks-TananaValleyarea.Thepoweroutputofthetwodamsisdividedbetweenthetwoloadcentersinproportiontotheirrelativeenergyconsumptionin1994.Thisresultsinthepercentagedivisionsshownbelow.251 :LoadGrowthAnchorage-Fairbanks-.ScenarioCookInletTananaValleyLow80%'20%Medium81%19%High84%16%3.4RESULTSOFLOAD/RESOURCEANALYSESUsingthemethodologyoutlinedinSection3.1andtheassumptionsexplainedinSection3.2,aseriesofload/resourceanalyseswereperformed.Aspointedoutearlier,threebasiccaseswereevaluated:IfliCase1Case2Alladditionalgeneratingcapacitybeyondutilityplansassumedtobecoal-firedsteamturbineswithoutatransmissioninterconnectionbetweentheAnchorage-CookInletareaandtheFairbanks-TananaValleyarealoadcenters.Alladditionalgeneratingcapacitybeyondutilityplansassumedtobecoal-firedsteamturbinesincludingatransmissioninterconnection.Case3Alladditionalgeneratingcapacitybeyondutilityplansassumedtobec~al-firedsteamturbinesbutincludingtheUpper'Susitnaproject(ir:ludingatransmissionintertie)comingonlinein1994.Foreach~Fthesethreecases.Threeloadgrowthscenarios(low,mediumandhigh)areevaluatedreSUltinginatotalofnineload/resource.analyses.TheassumptionsdiscussedinthischapterareincorporatedinacomputermodelcalledAEPMOD.TheoutputofAEPMODforCase3assumingthemediumloadgrowthscenarioispresentedinTable3.10.Theresultsofallninecases,arepresentedinAppendixC.TheAEPMODcomputercodeispresentedinAppendixBandthedatabasenecessarytomaketherunsispresentedinAppendixA.ThecapacityadditionscalledupinthevariouscasesarepresentedinTablesJ.ll,3.12and3.13.TheresultsoftherunsaresummarizedinFigures3.6through3.11.252 TABLE3.10.Load/ResourceBalanceforCase3:MediumLoadGrowthScena~i~AW~A:A"CI1i)wAio€A~C~U~AbECASt:~--~EOIuMLUADGKuwfHI~Tl~TlllEAH:19~0.~OTES:OlC.b,197~~IU.S.-1914.CMITICALpe.l(1U01------//PEAl(o•O.3041.30117..5041..~04•552•2115.II.•vQ.00.:'0.50.~O.50.7'5.75·.50.35.1'j•gg1980-1981~"UFAPuFO.2•.//"tAIC.,------//"81t./,///I/I/<llil./////lao.//////////910./Iv.3020//172./I//704.//IIO./2801.204.332.1610•O.2843•21101..5Q.50•~O.5u•75.75•50.3&.IS.001979-190ui"lr'urAPUFO.32.-10.1112•./2531.//IIol04./.S3c./2034./~.I/250'f•.II/I/II/.I/////I250'h/II.0.2114/I/18.II2531./I///O.//E/;£IoIGYIPEAIC.--------1------•:,0•~O.75.75.~O.'10.15.0019/8-1979..pIlFApuFu.52.5.S8S.0.193SUilP\.USAu/lillI/USrtT\,UfiJSTi:.A""ELECcr,,.,,,.fUi'IiI"EuIt!lELRt.Tli'E'.EiHS"'\};«J!>Td·41ELECCO"5.TUrfr>WEu1l:SEL---------------/REIJUIi'tEMt::'.TS/---------------,HfSOt;"C.ES/E:tISfl'lGI..'UI(UI::;fU""tLI:CIe.O"'!.T"t<bINE/DIEsEL/IIII/.IIIIIII/II---------------/..ilOSb~fSOu~CeSi/CAP"ES.f4AIllOII1I,////Nfl"E'Ou~CES/,////PtAK--PtAKLDAD/GENEt<AT1~~CAPACITYHEYUIRf~ENTS(HEGA~AfTS)MI'I/F--MAXIMUMPL4NIUTILIZATIONFACTOR"'!'uF--ACTuALPLANluTILIZATIONFACTO~ENE~r.T--GENtRATION/AHNUALEI~EHGTHE~utHI:MI:NTS(MtLLIONSOFKILU~AT1-..UUt<SI253 'TABLE3.10.'"tAlf.lHttANI\SFAl~ijAN~SCASe:2••~EOIU~~OAOGROWTHrWT~klIe'EAR:1~~0.NOTEs:UtC.~.1~18~,U.S.·l~~4.(contd)CR ITICAI.PEIi1()0-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------,1",'>t·l'i7o;,lH9-j98U,1"1:111-1"1:11,PEAl(MPUF"PuFE/.EIlG',PEAK,","UFAPuFENERGY/PcAK,",PuFAPuFEt.EllbY/......--------/......----.---/......--------•.•..•...._....,,,"fwiJliCf"'c,NIS,184.81)4.I1'17.802.I20~.'Ha._•..•...•••.••./...II"'10:,fJUolCE:S,,Illl:,TI'I(.//I,,'uIlOIIi.•~O.50'O.Io.•50.50il•/O•.50•500•.SIEA'·./ELECI110..15.bl>1>33./110..7~.72b'lC!.I110..1~•1~7eJ•ce;..a.rlJ~tl[i.E/20~..50 .1018;1•./2119..~o•.10185./211~•.50•112(H•OIe:'EL/40..10.00o.I40..10.uoI).I40_.10.1106_,I.ITOrAt../Jas.816.I305.875./305.~3v.,I/AUUr T1'11,S,/,"rUk')/IISTC:l",'F.LEC,,,C(!41'.llllldIN£,II:"1>:.5£L,,II,IIlETI";:~~EIHS/II",,,,I(,,//I::'IE"':~'tLEC/IICO...,;.T1Jk~!tif,II0IE'>ELIII,II_......-.-.....,II!oliOS::'"ESlJlJWCESI3&S.1116.I3115•.117'5.,30~.9$0.//ICAl'wE:-S."AIl.GII"0.'1/13Io.Ii~C!/0.741>I/I"ESE';lJfRE1.,46./4'1./52.,IILUSS~S,'I.Ii!.,.10.1$•./10.1<1.,I/"ETkESOURCES,.51u.804./301>.81>2.,302•91&.,I,liI"·iSFE!-IEO/n./o.,o.•,II,IISUwPl.uSIIi!/).lI.,109.O.I~J.O.PEAl<PlA/(,LOAl)'GENt:~AILNGCAPACITY~EQUlklMENTS(MEGA~...rTSJ",PtIFMAXLtoIUM"LANTUTIL.HATliJNFACTORAjolJFACTUA~PLANTUrtL!ZArlUN~"CTQwEt.F.IlGy..GEN~R~TION/ANNU"LE.\lEKGYkEuuIHEMENTS(~ILL.IONSOFKII.Ow,,"TT·"OURS)254 IABLE3.10.(contd)Al<fA:Ar.C"O..A..EAm:tinl<AGfc..a~:~.-MEu1u"I.IIAOGI<IJ"TtiI'.TEwfIt.TEASI;1~'10.I<OTES:OlC.10,1~7d.0U.5.·19'1'1.CN1TICAL.PEI<1Uu.._--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------I19"1-1~8ZI1'l1l2-19&3I19t13·1~1I"IPEAl<",PuFAPuFENENG·TIPEAl<,"puFA;>UFE/oot:llGJIPEAK/oPUFA"'UFENF.NGJ1--------------,.-------------1-------------·_-------------1II"EUU!IJE~e;.T3I741.3~IH.I79'5.$':>21.I8'511.057101.---------------1II"ES{)v~CES/..IIEx/:'T1f.r./II,;YiJ~OI53.•~O•50204.I53..541.502(14•I~3•.50•50211"•SH.A>l'ELECI'Sl..7S.15.H2.I51.·.15.15:H2.I251..15•42'123•COI·lIl./11I't!(Nii./789..::'0.J9271b./b07..50.J222511./a'll•..50•J520'11•01lSEI./11.•15•000.I17..1~.00II•I1'5•.15•1100•.IIITOfJol.I"10.05251.I'128.21lS5.I1210.3e117./I/AOOIT(1).,5I//i1YUHftIIISTEl.4/fI.ECI/200..7':>.20350./CO:.d.rUN~nu::IIll..50.5019.I100..5U.5.0438./vH:5EL./I////AETI;<lMENTS/II,,"UN')/II;)Tl:A"'/EL.EC//ICO"8.TU",,(NIiI/15..00•00II.I6..410.011II•OTESEI.II2•..00.00O.IIII._-------------//II.kOSS;/ESOUHCE5/928.3.5311./1210.-3574./1202.31117./IICAP"E5.!'IASlGII'/(i.252I0.523I0.'114/I/lCE;)EI<VE-HEy./IM~./19'1./21:3.IIIL.fJ5St.5/-3I.49./40.51./43..~D.II/'.ETIlESOUIlCESI70i).32&1.IcH2.352L./'I'll.371>1./I/lSlA"SFEHEIi/-'lIo.o/O.IO./I///I5..".Pl.u5/-3~.II./171.O.I'II.u."'EAKPEAKL.OAU/G€NE~ATINGCAPACITTKEyuIHENENTS(HEGAftATTS),",PIJFNUl14uMPL.",..TUTIl.lZAlIONFACTliocAPU'A~TU"'l.pl.A..eurll.1ZArtuNFACTuNENERr.y--Gt"'e'UTIIJNIAN..UAI..ENEkGTI<EtlUIHEHENrs(Ml~L.IO;i5OFKII.U......TT-...OU~$)255 TABLE3.10.AwEA:FAlwb"N"S.A!kHANKSCloSt:2--~EO!UMLUAD~ROWIHINIEHTlt'~AW:19QO.M~IES:OtC.b.19/0h'U.S.-199a.(contd)C"ITICAL,1901-1'182,1~62-1<j8~,19c13-1'1114,"EAII..i'lJFAi'UFE••EkGY,PUllO1PI,FAPUFEiIlt:'lGT,PEAl("PUFAPUF'l:r~t:"bY,--------------,--------------1-----------------------------,,,"'!:·",L..lE"!;,IHS,2l1.<j10.,233.102'••,245.lUlli.---------------1,I,,~:>lJ"~CES,,,EAISTl;IG,,,'1,,,010,U..~O.~IIu.,II..50.0;0o.,1/..~II.50O.SH.AI4/e.LEC,11II..7'5•75125.,110..75•75723•,11II•.75•75723•COMil.TUR"U<£,209..SO.14202.,2<19..50.17317•I209..SII•21,HI•IlUS!:L,'If••.10...0'1O.,"6.•10..00O.I4&•.la.00II•1,,TOIAL,305.911S.I5&5.10J...I30;.111"4.1IIAlJO1T[rH",.,1,",1'\1'1'(0,I,HO·l/F.LEC,,I(.u,·'1.TUk.IINE,,,,>,ultSc.l...,,I,I,i>!:fIREI"€NTS,,I...rlJI<",-,,STEA'I'EI..EC,,,CO"d.Tu....INE,II5..00.00o."ltSl:LI,I,I,.---------------1II(";llJ~:',<E:'OU'IC£S'5&5.9115.,3&5.105CJ.,3&0.1094.I,,CAl'..ES.14ARGINI0.&51,0.5&100-,0.4&7,I,i'£:>£"vt:I<EO.I55.,58.Ia1.-,,ILOSSc.S,11.15.,12.-.IS.I12.la.,,,hl:TItE:>tJuItC£s,ZqQ.9111.,295.102<1.,28a.1111&.._,,IUUhSFEREO,u.Io.Io.,,"II,SuRPluSI..~.o.,&2._Ii.I41.O.PEAIIPEA"LOAU'GENERATl:'4G-C"-PAC-IIY-"l':l.jU1t'Il:;~tNl'S_(I'ri:GA...·TTS)·HI"JFMUI"u,",PL,l~TUIII..1ZATIONFACTO~"'I'UFACTlJAI.PLANTuTILIZATIONFACTOr!£;.£I<GY--GtN!:"ATIO~'ANNUAL£....~"'GY~EUU[~!:M~NIS(MILLIU~sO~IIILOWATT-~OUH~)256 TABLE3.10.(contd)"..b\:A.~CHOluGEA"C"O~A('ECA:>":2--"f",lu'"I.UAUGIolUi'llHl~rEHrI~TlAR:1~~0.NOTE5:0fC.b,1~7~~IU.5.-1~94.CwIT1CAI.PEIolIOO~--------.-----.--------------------------_._---------------------------------------------II.70.4b57.'4b57.510.22"".1958.0.,4727.-,,.SlI.50.75.50.511.2&.15.110l'lil&-19c7....\11'A"uFII.S2.'10.134.'ISo•1155.5.//PEAl(/------//10'18•/I///////laS2.II,///////O.IO.I///1'1S2./I,0.'.31$5//2b2.I//I115&./I//O.I30'.3103•20'1.1'105•211&.O•3124.ENEllliT.~II.50•75.&4.51l.28.15.00.00.liO.00,.00.50.50•75.201985-1'l&b",~uF"puFO.31.10.55.251.88l>•15./IPEAK/------I/97&.//IIII///1295.,/I/~I.I297./II///II./,I/II14052-_/IO.'I&~//2'14.///I1159.////O.IlIH.2114.11&4.2b15.O.4001.4001~.110.00.~O.50.50.50•15.53•50.j4•15.Oll1904-n85M"\.IF"PuF15.30.SuRPI.USlOIAL.AliI)ITIn..1HTulol"STtAM'e-I.ECCIl"''';TUlliIWEul~SfL.I/PEAo(/---------------------/..E,l"['1I0"!:"rs/~O".---------------,"E.;u'Ji<CE:;/EH~rilli'/,iTIJI<.j/:,TEA"/EI.£C/CO;-'''.rUH&tilE,OI~5EL.///1202.////////I///I---------------,c.wUS:>,"E5()U~CESI1205.IC"~"ES.,"ARGIN/0.353I/22&.//I~ETkfSUUHCES/~~4.I/II/"~t.TIRE'-'E"rs.d.ttYLJWO:.Tio'''IIEl.tCCO"l~.Tu~.,Il'EufESEI.PEAKPIoAK1.0AO/GEiIIERArINGCAPACITTItEtllJ11Ie-I"EN'TS(ME"GA..ATT:H"PUF"AXIMU~PI.A~Iurll.lZ"rlONFACTUw101'111'ACTUAL.1'1.101'11uTIL.IlATIOI't,~'.ce;I~<ENERGY--GENERArfO~/ANNU4CENERGTwEQuIREM£iIITS(MILI.IONSOFI(ILOW"TT-HOU~.257 /TTABLE3.10.(contd)\IA"EA:F"'IkllAIII<SIF...Ik.,A""<SCASt:2---",EDIUM1.0AOGRiJ"TH~INTERTtEYEI<H:t'l'lO.'.NuT·ES:OEC.0,1'l711"IU.S.-19'1".CIIIT'ICAI.PEt<I\)D-------------------------------------------.---------------------------------------------I1'1"4-1'111')IJ'III'i-1911bI1'11110-1'1<17IPE"'''MPUFAPuFIW£.Il.YIf'EAKMPIJI"...Pt;FENERGyIl'E'\KMf'l.IFAPUfENe"'"Y1--------------/--------------/-----------------------------1I/..r:l,;ut",e.·H:ilfSI256.1132.I272.II'll./211&.12')4.---------------/I/I(E"'hl"CES///E..,;'rio'll.I/II'lY,,";)/o..::'0.')0II.IO..50.50O./II.•'ill.'i0o.:)JeA;~/EI.£C/110..75./572.5.I110..75.75723.I2111..75.55101ll.CO'~d.TulHlINEI204..5u.24'1210./2u4..50•18313./204..50.1'141501•uIESE.1.I"".•10.00O./22.•111.00O•I22•.10.110O.I//TtlUt./31>0.114'l.I3310.103&./43&.1273.//I"'1101rlo"sII/"Yuol:)///:>rl:.A./fLECII10lJ..7').cO17').IClJ-·'''.TUII"IliEIIIDIESEl.I//II/"'EI1"E.MENfS/I-IrtfuRiJI//STEA-4/ELECI//;;0-.".rUHfjl:.EII..IUIE.5EI.I2'1..liO.000.,I////---------------//IGIIOS:';'E::>OUHCE.:;/J3f>.,11<19.I'<13".lill.I<1310.1213.II/CJ,PwE:s.....IIGIIoI0.3110/0.1'(/1I1l.523III'lESERVEIIEll.I"5.Iloa./72.///,-OSSfSI1.5.17.I14.III./14.1'1.III"'cTI<ESlllJIlCESI251;.1132./351<.11'13./350.120.;4.II/JNMI:>fli;..t:UI0._IO.III.IIIII/SullPI.USIII.O.I82.Il./&4.O.PEAK"'''''f......ufE:lENG.,PEAK~OAO/GEN€~'TINGC~PACITYNEQUIRekEuTS(MEGA~'TTs)MAXIMUMPI.ANTUTI~lZAIIUNfACTO~A'fuA~"'I.ANTuTtl.IZAflllNFACIO~--G~N~RATION/ANNUAt.ENEHGYReQUIHEMENTS(~lLLIONSOFKILUWATT-"OUHSI258 TABLE3.10.(contd)1HEA:AhCHOkA~E'ANCHnWAuEt;A:lt:c!••MEOIUI4LUAUGHOwTHI~TEHrIEYEAH:lq~U.uurES:UEC.0,191~~I~.:l.-1994.CkITlCALP EIe100.---------------1I19d'i·19'i1jII'I:.A".,PuF"'I'UF€'1l~1'1l'Y,.....---------II12bll.5041•.IIII1311..';00.50.51U.I104$..75..00'3145•..;791..~U.21;1471••Il)...15·..UO-Ii.II1573.5720.IIIIIIIIIII'.:.I':"III157J.SHit•.II0.245II253.IIoj.r..5.II1257.slt41.II7.II.-'"'IQ..,-,Q.o.o.80•.510.3254.Ib21i.U.53U.~.';o".sa.75.~a•SCI.·.23.15.00l'illa·191l9HI'UI'...PIlF0•.&0.134.&11$.855...5.·IENEHGlIPEAK------••1------I4985.I119c.II"I51U.Ii2413.,/.17110.,..0•.II"4709...1'1&37'.I·.:,.IJSll...1I'rI'II'O.1IIrI,SileO•.I1573.,II0.320"I·2911_I75.·I'I4985.112110.III'Ii/.I.110".00.';00.';00.15.10$..50.24.1~F'.00'19b1-191111"'..UFAPUF15.13/1.458•."SS..5.TOTAL·~ETlwt:.o,jErHS""'UNe):HC:A../ELECCO"o.TUl<dINEuIt.SlL.AlJOLTIIJ"3rtll·1l0liTt.M/t:.LEC.CIJIIJltKIUe.IIr~SEt..•GROSSHESIJIJHCESI103i.ICAPI<ES•.iolAiiGINI<i.0l..2IH€:iF.HVE'''£lJ.I284'.•.I,1.0:'SfSI5&•.I:.£T"lESOIiHCE~IIjOl.Ira...usFERf.UI0.IISUHPl.nSI1~1.II"tAl<,...._._··············1HE~UIHEHENrS1112U.··..··-·······-1'RE~Ou~CESIEl'z:.rP.b-IhlORU·I:iH.A"t/ELECICGA,j.T11itlSWEIIIIESEt.III1452._I·I'1I20u.I1III1III.PEAKPtA"LOAO/GENEH...TINGCAPACITYHEuulREMENTS(MEGAwAtTSlMPUF.-MAXIM~~Pl.A~TUTIl.IZAtiONFACTUR...IIF••ACTUALPl.ANTUTILlZUIOIIIFACTUMENENGY.-G'N~~ArIOH/INIIIUAt.ENEhGYREQUIHEMENTSl"'iLLIONSOFKll.Ow...Tr·"OUHSl259 TABLE3.10.(contd)AME-A:FAI..cllANI\SFAIWAA~I\SCAS~:2--HEOIU~LOADGRO~TH'.I~r~~TI~TEAW:lqq~.hUTES:O~C.c.19'11~IU.S.-19q4.,CMITICA1.P EHIUDo.19,,9-1990HP~FAPUFENERGyI1911o-1Q/SQIEliEH~'IPI:.AKMPUFAPufENERGyIPEAl(-------1------·.--------------_.1------·II1315.I314.137b.I3211.I//I.I1-:,'0•.Io-.,_~•50'.50.0.·I'U....113't•I210•..7S.b~·11"....Ii!lfo.,190.I2u4•..'SO.10178..I2U4....0..../22•..10 .000•.Io./,I1.H5.I43".1372.,I'119.I'IIIl.-I~..14....•.75".20,2~•.r/II,IIII"~I'III"..OQ,•.001/.III/22•..00..000•.I///I1$35_I419.1397.I41'1._III1/.334-·/lJ.el7'/II7't...I&&..IIaa.I10.21.,Ilb.,II1315.I325.13710.IH7.IIIo.I.,..IIII0.,I11.O.Ic.'•5\)·.5t>•l5.be·•~j).11,.10..QO.19c7-1Q/s1IMPUFAPUFG._11u.lnll.22.,TIlrAt.'(/IlITloriS·"'urtO~T"A"/ELEC'COloob.Tu"'HI\;E01t:5E1..Illi;T11<~"'e.''1T::;,"TuWO5T~A:~/E1.!:C'COM".Tlher!(NEOIt.SEL1.055E:;IIPEAl(1---------------------1WEqUIwr.~~~rsIJOO.---------------1OIE:l,Jij:lCESIEA1~Tlr~Gr>;Tl,lWi)I:;;e"'!IELi:CICO,,"•.!IJWbF~EIUIESELII'I4jo._IIIIIII'IIIIII---------------1!oHOS::;"ESouaCESI4jfo./CAPhES~HAHCIHIO~4~~//IIINET"F'SOI;~CESIIIII/PEAK••PEAK1.OAO/GENE~ATINGCAPACITY~EQulHEHENTS("'EGAwATTS)I'PIIF--HAXLl4UHP1.AtHUTILIZATIONFACTO"A~UF.-ACTUALP1.ANTUTI1.llATIUN~A,-TOHEi';EIlGf--G~NEkATiON/ANNUA1.EhE~GYREQ~lRtMENTS(MILLIONSOFKILOWArT·HOU~S)260 TABLE3.10.(contd)A"EA:A••C110WA"fA"jC"'O~AGECAS,.:Z--,~EDIUMI.IlALlGRllilTHINTEI<III:.TEAR:1'1"0.NuT€S:OC:C.1>,1'l711"'IU.5.-19'i4.C..ITICAL.PEilI0 0-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------I19'10-19'HI1991-1992I19<jZ-I<j'i!IPEAl(HI'UFAf'UFE;~EIoCGTIPEAKMPUFAPUFENERGY/PEAKMPuFAPUFENEHGY/----------_..-/--------------/-----------------------------//I,(t"uuIREl1e1.TSI1357.01lfo3./14511.04d~.IIS4!.09117.'---------------1IIliE:;O'/;'CE5IIIfAI;HINGIII"YIlk...I134..SO•~O511l•I134..50.50510./134..50•50510•:HEA·4/EI.~CI1043.•75•7139110•I843..75.05455Z.I11l45•.75•510511>1>•CO"';'.TUKflU.f.I791.•::.0.19nOll•I791..50.1fo10'15./773..50•101034•lJlt:.:;EL.I5..15•"11o•I5..15 .00o./3..15•00O•II/TOIAI.I1573.5804./1773.folS7.I1\1-;5.6311l.IIIACIDI TIO!,SI/IHYlJ"f)IIISIEArt/t:LECIZOIl..75•20350./243•.75.204o!5.I400.•75.20701•CO·4r,.Tu'"'"1>IEIIIuIt-sEI.II//IIRETlllt,'4E.'iTSII/"",!if)III:;TeA'4/1'U.CII41..llll.00Il./CoII'·It,.TU""lid,/I1<1..lIU•00u.I:;u..00.1l0o•DIE:>EL.II2._.00,.000•./I1I---~-----------I1/GRClSS"E"OUI<CE:;I1773.ot54.I1955.fo5il2.·I2301>.7011.I1ICA~><ES.HAHGINIB.3U7I0.34910.~94IIII<eSEt<Vl:"EQ.I271.I290./309.///i.OSSC:SI&d.91•.I73.'H.I77.1114.////o£T"ESOURCESI1434.&01>3./1543.0485.I192u.oliO?II/HlANSFEHEU/U./-Z"I./-lS~.I//II/SuMPLUS/77.,o.I114.O./"119.o.~t~K--P~A~~OAD/G~~ERATl~~CAPACITYkEQUIRE~ENTS(MEGAhATTS)/4PtlF--IoIAlCII4UMPI.AlHUrILIlAIIONFACTUNAI'UF--ACTUAl.PLAl'{T;JTIL.llAJIUNFACTUMENERGY--GENERATION/A~NUAI.E~ERG'REQUIkEMENTS(MILI.IONSOFKILO~ArT-HOUMS)261 TABLE3.10.A.llEAiFAt"IIAN"SFAI~KANASCAS~:2--MEDIUMl.DADGROwtHI~TERTIE'EAR;1~90.NOTES;OE,C.0.1'l18N/U.S.-199<1.(contd)C~ITICAl./1990-1991/1'l91-1'I'I2/1'I'il-I'I'I3/"lAo<iotPUI'APuF£;.1::1<101/ilEAl(",PUFAPuFEtoIErlG'/PEU"'''UF4;>UFENEkG'1------------1--------------1-----------------------------///I<E{'U!~~·~e...lS/343.1505./3038.I~n./374.1..<11.---------------/I/.l<E;;,,1tJI>CESI//EtI:.rPII.//I,,'UIoIOI"..50.50•O.IO..50.51iO./O..50.50u•Sre.A~/t:I.EC/210.•/03.131172.I210••703•06le!!3./21&•.1';.7113~",CO"'",nJA6Ii.EoI20"•.•50.17300.I204• •50•16313•I204.•!)O.23327•(ilioSEt./II.•iO.000•./O..111.00U./O•.10.1100.///TOUI./<119.1472./419.1597.I419.Ibbo.///AUU!rlOt.S///"'''''0/II:,It.AI~/ll.EC/.3~.•15.20-So•//c.r"·III.TUNItIkE///ult.SEt./I//I/"t.rll~l..t.NIS///"Tui','///&rE,AM/€l.!:C/32..00.0)0O.IIenocH.rl)~I1I1;E///40..vu.uou."IlliEt.//I..I/~--------------///","'tlSS.H€SlJUICCES/<11'1.lSeH•./41'l•.1591./37'1.Iltblt./.IItA"wE:;.MARIHN/0.222I0.1.70/D.DI3///:<ESE><\/£..eo../&9.I7e•I75./II~nS5E:)/11.23./18.24./19.25.///JET...eSOvRCESI333.1505./330.1573.I280.Ilt41.///lW...t.~Ff.Hll)/I./29./!I'I.I/II/ISUQPI.US·/-to.O.IO.O.IO.O.PEAII--PEA"1.0AO/G£~R.fj.....CAP4CITYI<EGUI~EhE~TS(MEG~~~TTS)"'i'tJF--""4X1/4014"l.Ao'HUI!l.llABONFACTUMAfOUl'--ACTUAI.·fOI.AIIHuTILIZATION~.CTUHE~.EilGT--GEN~A&TION/AN~UAl.ENE~GTI(EGIUrileM£~tstMILUONSp.rKIl.OWATl-ti\JUIiS)262 TABLE3.10.(contd),H.EA:A...C"OWA"EA~CriOWA~!CA5~:2--MEDIUMLOADGHuWTHlurE~rl~YEAH;19~U.NuTE5;D~C.&.1970w/U.5.-1994.CWIT1CAl.Pe:Ie·1IID11993-1994/1PEA~~PUFAPUFEwEH&YIPEAK1-----------~--/------1994-1995I1995-199&MPIIFAPUFENEWlOYIPEAK....uFApUF~NEWGY--------1--------------TUTAl.a•.125.6311.jill!>.11"1".477.O.'&101>..011.00II.125•.21111•7'ii•144~•bb".3 •24117•.29119.0.548371./7751.//I/'HO./4<'1>&./5610./O.IIS31oc.I//2~il':l.III/II/////I7807.//II1/11&./17151./I/I/0•.I.':10•.50.34.10.00•.':I1I.75.50.15o.abo747•.134.1"45.bIo9•.J.247b•.2251.//1729.//I//III/I//I/rII/I/II'II/III/////I///~10.i>~45.~lio.O.0•..00•~O•':111.10•01155.134.144':1•.724.3..?..51.230b.SU~PLUSAlitHTTII"5riYIJkf/STt,AIo4/ELf.CC(J>;~.[Ul<o:IIto!IIlt.St.LilET1"Eo1f.NT5"YU'III·;;H.A..I/ELECClJ~tl.TuHHINEL1t!,:;t.L---------------/~f.l,jlll"e'~~''HS1---------------1"E:.O":~Ce:SIe:..r:.rx'IG/"Yv"')I::'Tt.AM/p'U.C/C;l"8.lURBH.E/IIrE!;~L.///,II./Ir/////1/---------------/10"0:1:;"e:SuURCES/ICA~.ES."'AkGtH/,.,///Ir,ET~"SOuHCES/I////Pt.AIIPtAIIl.UAO/GENEHArlN&CAPACllYHt.QulHEMI:NT$(~!gANArrs)MP~FMAXIMUMPLANTUr~I.IZArIUHFACTuHApUFACTUAl.PLANTuT1LIZATIONFACTowENt.WG't--Gt.I~t.WAT10N/A!'INUALENEkliYI<Et.lUIN!::1'It:NTS(MILL10NSUFItILU.."TT-HllUHl»263 TABLE3.10.,AHEA:F.l«flAll"~FAIH~AN~5Clost:~--MfuIu~LOAUGI/O~THINTEHlItYEAI/:1990.NOTES:O~C.0,1918~/U.5.-1994.(contd)C1/I TCAL-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------I19'13-1994/1994-199!>/li9S-lQ911/Pt.AICloil'uFAI'Ui'EI~EKGT/PEAKMPljFAl'lIFEiliEIIGT/PtAKMP,jf.puFENt~..y1--------------/--------------/-----------------------------///PtEI~UlJ.l~....i:.:~;51.511'1.17(,'1•/"05.1711./Qo2J.'Ib.,,,.---------------i//I/ESvvI<CES1//ExI:.IV.(,///HYI;i/IJ/1J..51).500./0.,.50.50O./151..50.50';)7~.F.oA:1/eLEC/2111.,.15.731377./02111.•75.58IUdll./2111..75.113HI5J•CO..,;.TU'lbII,£/111<1..~O.c5357.I1114•.•50.10143./1&4..50.101'13•.uh.SF.L/o..10,.00O././J'..10 .00O./O.•10.110'0.•///TOIAI./37'i•.1735./.379.12c".I530.1770./"IAUhlrIU"IS///I1YtJl<U./..I151..50•50574•/19..51).SO7"_i>H.""1/eUC-/II2S..7S.21143.'CIJ"''1.TiJ~I1IM'///OIt.Sr.L///I/Illt;TIRt.:1!::IIIS///"Ill....//IST~A../t:LEC///c5..IlU.uou.CO",...IIIII.;{10<£/-.//OI~SEL/IrI//---------------///,.wuS:'iiI'.<lOljI/CES/.51'1.173~.I530.1804./5'19•18117./II~.lPwES."ARGIN/-1I•.0ct>I0.3116Io.c..ltI'II..t:.:..,..vEkEy•I1~./61.;11,./I/LiljSf.S'I19.2t>.I20.27.I21.21l./I/'.tiEr'1E5Ul/IlCES/i!~i!.1709./42"'.1777•I'441,$.1·<1:19.I/I11I...·,::.FfHEUI10'•/O./O.IIIII/SURPl.USIO.O.I24.o.I20.II.PEAl(PtAIIL(JAU/GENE~ATINGCA..ACITYilEIWIREI-lENTS(I'IEGA.....TTSlHPuFI'I~XIMUMPLA~TUTIl.IZATIONFACTUR"PUFACTUALPLANTUfII.IZATIONFACTUI/f.hEIiGY--GtNtRAfION/ANNUALENEHGTkEauIREMENTS(MIl.LION5OF'KILOftATl-~UUI/::'l264 TABLE3.10.(contd)...""...:..,CnO........E"'''CrilJ'''''C.EC"':;~:2--MEUluMLO"'OGko..rl1IlIjr"lnI~TEMH1990.NtJTESWEC.0,19711'Il/.U.5.-19911.CI<ITIC...L.PER100-----------_.._--------------------------------------------------------------------------/19'10-1997/19'f7-19911/1998-1999/"""'i(I1PUF"PUFE"Ew"TIPE"'I(Mi'UF"'PIJFENE"lGY/Pt......Mi'UF...PuFENfwGY/--------------/--------------1-----------------------------///WfCJUl"f04I'.'~r:l/1'179.IIll71./Z10.5.94.$1./ZZi!I:I.99'11.---------------1//IlE:>OuIiCES//1Ext:.rI,ll;1//ri1~RO/1j78..:>0•~o3.544./871:1..50•503,544•/1118..~o).50.5.544•:Oli:...r4/ELEC/1"4~..75.4Z.5,S00../1445.•75•47~'jj4•/144~..75.J2"\l2~•CO:'rt.Tu"l~rilE/545..50.10294./335..50. •10Z94•/335..'i0).10215•IIIt-SEL/J..15•00a_/II..1S.00O./o..15.00II./I/rO!"'LI2871.90~".IZ&59.9572.I2&59.71048.II/"'ClliIT!I,,,SII/",(two/I/,,54..:i0•502"93•.!>TE......I..LEC//Il;U....,•.Turil:SHIE.//-/,,1t.Sfot../I////IlfT1~r:r·ENTSI//HTUI<O/I/:,rt"'''/ELEC//ICClM~.TI'~ilI"'E/211)•.00.00o.IIIll..00.UOo.oIt.St:!.IZ".110.00O.//III---------------//I"fillS:>l'ellUl,wCEslZl:lS'f.9004./i!b59.9572.'/'si!Cl5.101"1././IC"'''itES.lo!...~GHI/0.3!l3I0~2&4/iI.479//II<ESEhVEI<E~•.I390./421./44t1.///L.US5~5/99.133./105.141./111.15u.///:·ETkESOUoICES/Zlb".81171../Zl3.5•.9431.IZ7311._9991.II'/'I<AIlSFEIl£O/-Z7../O.Io./I/I/ISukPI.USI15d.O.I30.O.J510.O.PEAi(--PEA..L.OAO/GENEHATINGCAPACITYWEUlJlkE"'ENTS(MEGA~ArTS)·/1PUF--MAXIMUMPLA~TUTILIZATiONFACTURAPlIF--ACTUAL.PLANTUTlL.1ZATIU"FACTvl<·~~EHG1--G~NeHAriON/A~~UALfNf~GYwEnuIHEMENTS(HIL.L.IONSuF~IL.O~AT1-HOuwSI265 TABLE3.10.(contd)A"EA:FA!l<lhN"SrAlkllANl\:;CASt.:c!.--'.t:U!UMLUAUGIWWIHI...TEI<fit:TEAl<:l'i'lO.I,OTES:OE.C.1:1,1976ii/U.S.-19':14.CI<IT1CALI'EI<I()0-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------/19'1.0-1'191/lC;97-1'19Cl/1"198-1'199/PEAK.....UFA"uFEJ.EtlGT/I'I::AIIMPuFAPlJFer,E~GT/I't:.l.I<...t>"F"'''lJFE~t."GY/--------------1------.-----.-/-----------------------------///ilE,.UIIIEME·'!IS/"'I.?1'141./401.2iJ2S.I'180.211l~.---------------///RESOUOlCES///£tI:>llrIG///1'1YIJo<n/170.•~O.50048./170•.50.50048./17u..~O.50!I"ll.SHAI··/t.LfC/21&.•15•04Ic!.OO•I2ll••.1~."5leW)•/311:1•.1':1.3':19..~.C.OI.;d.Tuk6IuE/1"'~..50.10125./140..50.10O./O..50.10Il.'ilii:.:>c.L/u.•lu.OilO•/U..10.00u./II..10 .00tI.///TOTAL_/549.1970./520.187&./"8e.Ib11.///AUIJUIO"S.///rtYIIl'tlj/-:I/138..~O.Su5i!5.::.ItA--./ELl:.C//100..75•cO17<;•/COIoll\.TlJl<tiINE/IIOIE.SEL/I//IIkE,TI"E~4t./jT:;'///"TukO///STt:A;4/ELEC/I/tU'1'1.TlI~!HriE/2"..00.00o.I1410..00.00O./:lIE.SEL//////---------------///~HUSs-.OlESllUI<CES/~2".1.9711._/'Ul&.20'35./bc'l.2157.///~APkES.~ARGI/j/0.lil9-J0.053/0.299///1<t::.El<vEliEu./lilt.-/92./"lb.///LoOSSeS/22.29./23.30./24.32.//J"ETI<ESOuRCES/"15.1941•./370.co.n.I50".i!10~./JIIItANSFEREO/21.IO.IO./I////Sl.l~PI.USIo.O./-'H.o.Ii!4I.O.PEAKPt.AIILOAO/GE~ERATINGCAPACITY~EQUIW€MENTS(MEGAwAITSJMPVFMAXIMUMPLA~TUTILIZATIONFACTOHAPUFAtTl.IAL~LANrUTIL1ZAT10NFACTOHENEtlGY--Gt.NeRArION/ANNUALENEHGY"E(jUI~EME~TS(MILLIONSUFKILIJ~AT1-HUUHSl266 TABLE3.10.(contd)AkEA:ANC,1fIlUloE';,.cHUr<AbEc...s..:2--MEOlUMl.uAOGHowTHI'HEkrIErE...H;1",*0._-NuTES;l)"t:.II.1..78tillU.'.-1"94.CFeITI CAl.PERI00-----------------_._---------------~----------------_.-----------------------------------I19.."-2"OuI200Q-ZOOlIo!uOl-ZIlOZIPEu"PUFAPUFENENGYIPEAKMPU~APUFE"EHGYIPEAKMI'UFA.-UfENEl<IiY1-------------1------------/----------____a_e.----------~----IIIlcE",Ulf'EM,,:4TSI2555.10551~I2421.lU805.I2"9u.11175.---------------///l<ESOUHCES/IIEJIS11'«.//I"YlJjeO/1')33..~O.5051137./1017•.50•500100•I1017•.50.50bl00.STEAH/EI.EC/1445•..75•344345./1445..7~.J74747•/144')•..75•'IllSOliO•COM8.TURDIIIE/317..50.1020&.'/230..SQ•10119•I136..5Q.10103.vll:'.SEl.I0..15.00O.I0.-.15.000./Q..15 .00g.IIITOT"l.I3295._1038&.I3298.11020./31911.11343./I/Al1tltTlO"jS//IrtY!JHIJ/115._.~O•50323•IISHAM/ELEC/I/COild.fUl/blllE/I/(ll~SEL////I/kl:n"t.Ml:I,TS/I/r11IJf<O//ISI~A'4/ELEC/I/cn.ai.TIJ""INE/62.:•00.00O.I100..00'-000•.IIt••.110.00u.vltSEL_/I//I-/--------------/IIijitOS:;RESO,JkCES/329tl.10109._/3198..l1Q2D.-/3180.11343./IICAPHES.MAllGII;10.402/0;'321I0.277//IicE':;El<VEkEY./471•./484./498•.///1.0SSESIIts.ISIS.I121.103.I-125.108._II/Nt.THESOUIlCESI271'1.10551./2593.t08b3•I2558•.11175..//IIIU:IIIoFEIlEO/O./0.-/-b./I///ISIJllPl.US/357.0•.I172.0./01.0.PEA~--PEA~LOAU/GENEllATlNGCAPACITY~EQUIHE~ENTS(MEIiAftATTS)MPUF--MAXI~UMPI.ANTUTtl.IZ&TI~NFACTURAPUF--ACTUALPL~"fUTILIZAfIONFACfG~E~E~GY--GtNtHAfION/ANNUALEN~~&YkEUUINEMENTS(MIl.LIONSUFKIl.OWATT-~OU~S)267 TABLE3.10.A"'tA:~AlkBANKSFAJRnA~KSCAS~:l--MEDIUM~OADGRUwTHI~TEUTI~fE~~;19~O.NOTES:UEC.Qf1918~,U.S.-l~9q.(contd)CRrTICA~-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------,19lf9-i!OOIl,2000-cOOlI2001-2002,PEAK""P\lFAPUFEI',E~GY,PEAKM!'UF.APtFEI'lE~GY,PEAKMPUFAtoUFENERGY,--------------,-------------,----------------------------,I,REl.IlII~£...tNTSI49<J.2187•.,508.2229.,'H8.-2l10.---------------,,I"l:.SlJVIoCCi(SI,IE;(hl1,,;oIII'lfl.lkll,3011•..::SO.50un.,3i!&..50•5012411•I32b..50.5012110.STEA"'ELECI5li•••15•.559110•,31&.•75.37IOe2.I31b•.75 .3810104.r.o...a.TU~dIi.E,u..50•.10O•Io..50.10O.,o..50.10u.DIESEl.,01..10•00o•IO.•10.00O.IO•.10 .00o.,I,TOfAl.,bell•.2153.,&"1.22&2.,b'll.l304•.,IIAIIOIT10:'S,,,~f"~'JI1&..50.50b7.II"-STEA,·IIELECIIICo-<.,.Tu....INE,IIOlliSEL,I,,IIPETtRE"te;'HS,II,""VIIl;,,ISTt::A;.t'ELtC,I,Cli"''J.Tu""1I,t:.I,,f>IE~EL,,I,I,---------------,IIGre"s:>.;,e:S1IuilCES'&41..2i!i!0.,&41.22112.,&41.2304.,I,C.....·IoCt.S."Altlor,."O.ZISSI0.2&2,0.2511I,IkESEl(I/l::IIEII.IIOU.I10i!..I104.II,LassEsI25.53.I25.3.5.I2&.34.II,;oET",eSUllilCES,51&.21&7.ISI".ci!i!9.I512.Z210.IIIllUhSFEREOIOJ.,O.,b·.II,,I,SuilPLUSI11.o.I&.o.IO.O.PEA~--P~AKLOAO'GE~ERATlhloCAPACITYIItwUIkEMENTS(MEGA~ATTSI""puF--MAXIMUMPLANTurI~IZATIONFACTu~APuF--ACTUAL~~ANIUTILIZATIONFACTukt"~"Gt--Gt;Nr.~ATlON'AN'4UALENEHGYHE"'UI..tl'ltl'trS(/'tILLlOI~:IOF~ILOillATT-'llJU"S)268 TABLE3.10.(contd)AHeA:A.,C"Ol<A..E~1,Cri()ol"bECASe:2..MEoJIUMl.OA!)GROWT(iIrlTEIifIeYE"II:1990.IlrJltS:Of.C.1>,1'1111</1U.S.-19'1II.CHIIIC"l.PERI00~-----------------------------------------._----------------------------------------------I~Ou2-.H")3I,i!003-2U04I20U4-i!OI)'iIPEA'"".,UFAPUFE:o<fi<GY,,';PE-lKMPUF~PUFENERGYI"OKMPUFAPUFENEI<GT,.------------1--------------1---·_·--------_·_···-····--·-1rt'll17•II"E(JIJIRE>4~Nr~I25'i~.I2b21>.111'1'1.I21>94.12\lt.···_··_------·-1II",E:.OIJilCES.IIIeArSrII,r.III"TVHUI1"11.•~(t......511I>lbU.Ih.P..50.~O101&0.IIbl1..50.50b1l>0.SH;A'4/ELECI1445._ri•38lI/03.IIIlIIS•.7'5.3&51iOI.I184~..75.380133.C/J"'l.TlIH"r"EI11el.'.511.1015.IIll•..50.1015.IIll..50.10u.iJltSELIOr'.15.00O.IO..15.00O.IO..15.00O.IIITOUI.I:nao).10'159.I34110.11970.I3480.122'B.yIIAlluI11m,:.III",YufIf'ljIII:.rt:A"/~Lec.I1ll'11I~./5.~o701.IICIJ·.H.JUoiijWEIII"IESEt..IIIIIIiiETIkE,HENTSIII,If\Iil0IIISTc.A;HEl..£CIIILtJ~'!I.JtJHr;,(i.e.IIOU..UO•UIIU.II10..01).110U•III:.SEI.IIIIII--_··_---------1II..Rll:;""'''SOuRCESI34l'lQ.11&59.I34110.11'1110.I3402.12ii!93.IIIC;'P;<ES.MAHGII,'Q.3,,!I0.32'5I0.265III!<E:;U.vEolEO.I~Iii!.I525.I539.IIILO:;SfSI1211.17<!.I131.177.I1.55.IllZ.IIIsEii<ESULlRCE$I2641.11481.I21124.117'li.I2711'l.12111.IIIiRAI';SFEREDIo.II).IO.IIIIIISUkt>~IISI0211.5.o.I1911.u.Ii').o.PEAK--PE.KLQ.oJ/GEN~~ATINGC."ACITY~EQUIKE~ENTS(MEG.wATTS)MPUF.-MAXIMUMPLANTUTILIZATIONFACTORA"'UF--ACTUAl..P~Ar'HuII~IZ""TI(mF4.CluHE,.ERGY.-G(NeRATtU~/ANNUA~ENERGYNEYUIW(MENTS(MILLluNSOF.KIl.U~Arl-MQUR~)269 TABLE3.10.(contd)~"tA:FA!I<clAN..:;.FAr~~A~"S'C_S~:2--~EDIUMLOADGRD~TH•I...TEIHl~TEAll:1990.NuTtS:UEC.b,1916~IU.S.-19~Q.CIIITICA.L,_•.pEIIIiJD--------------------_._----------------.-----------_._.-------------------.--------------O..sOe2431..50.~O12'10..15•.551191..50.11l0..10.00O.i!431.200"-200':)MPUFAPUFENERGT21.32b•jell•0•.Q./ENERGYIPEAK--------1------,2353.I5'1&.I/,IIIII2388./11,;,.I,,II,,/,/-"I,,23118.'71b./,0.311,I1O'l~,55.,I2353.'S80.I,//O.I..50.50.7~.34•SO.10.111..00c!003-i:!UO'lMPl;FAPUFO.32&.3'11.O.O.,IPEAK1------,,537.II/II,,//lIb.III,I/IIIII./II,I,11&•/,0~333'II107.II-27•,I5C12.I,IIO.I.55.i!31i!.2.547..00.11020u2-20U3",PUF,APUFf:r.EilbT--------2.512•.•50.50124U.•'5•.57"~H•.!lO.100.·.10.110o.2171..1S•.ao11S•.O.SUICPLUSTOTAt..Ail!J1TI0;,5..1tJ1IOsn.AlA'ELfCCui;!I.TIJ~ljINe.oIt..,Et.FIETIPE"'t"lTS"1iJ;lO:>TEA:A't.L~CCWAIf.TuRclINE!)!t.SELTHA"l>FEHE.DLO~S"S,,PEA<,---------------------,kEuulkE~EN'~,'~21w---------------1IlESOul<CE:I,E.1I::'f1t,lOI"T!,jlll/I:'Ti:.~~'iLECICO,AiI.TVltclINE:Ilil.,.SELIIIIt'll.II',I10i/.,/II/I//I---------------,..'''(is:;I<eSlIUkCEl>/'ltb.ICAP"t~•.HANGINIO.3~q/Ill}~•.I//hET.E~OURCES,584./,I,/peA~--Pt.A~LOAU/GENENATINGCAPACI1TIIE~UIHeHENTS(HEGA~AT15)HPUI'--HAXIHU'"pLA..rUTILIlATlUNfACTUkA~UF--ACTUALPLANTUTILIZATLONFACT~~ENe~GY--GEN~R~TIO~/ANNUA~eNe~6Y~EQUI~EHfNrS(MILLIDNSOFKILO~ATI-MOURS)270 TABLE3.10.(contd)""fA:At.CHOlotA';~A'ICHlllotAlsECAS..:a--MEOIUM1.0100GRUWT,;I"'T~HIIETl:AR:19~U.rjUTES:O~C.0.1978'IllU.S.-1994.C~I TICAI.I'ElotI0D---------------------------------------------------------------------.-.-----------------I120(15-120010I120010-12007Ic007-cvUlIIPe,AI(",PUFAPut'ENEw';YIPEAl<"'!'llt':.I'lIt'EfIoE~GYI!'~hMPuFAPUFI::"'~~GY1--------------1------.-------1-----------------------------1IIWE'J'!1RE'''';NTSI27,.,3.12423.I2t131.12735.I2119.~.13047.---------------1II..E:'O,,"CESIIIE~I..fl:.GIII"'IIMU,lloI7•.!)O•~o0100•I11>17.•50.501>1bU.I11017..50.~oblloU•..ri:AM/El.iOCI1845.•/5•110b..5u•I11:\45..75.38bUloo.I212115•.75.Jlo70&3.CO:,"'.TlilliHhE,0..~O.10O.Io.•50.10O.IO..511.10O•uIt:.SELI1.1...15-.UOu.,O.•15.00O./O..15.UOO•III10fAl.I3462.labO~.I34lo2.1122C!S.I31:\1012.13243.IIIAuDITIONSIIIrtYONllIIISTEA"/ELECII/l00..75•20701•Ico..".Illli!!Ihe.II,OIESELIIIIIIRETIREl.II:N1SIII"'YUJitrJIIISn:A14/El.ECIIICuI"".TllloltlIi,EII-,DlIiSELIIIIII---------------/I,GHU3:>HE:;0..,IoI(;E5134,.,.2.IC!1I0'l.I38loC!._112'01211.I311oo!.1.3.2"3.IIICAi'"loS•....IoIGINI0.253IO.3lo4I0•.33C!I1IkE:>El<V!i.;,tt;fll.I55.3.ISloll.1~1:\11.-1IIi.O:'SIoS113'i.186.I142.1~1.I1'15..1<;0.IIIlIETHESOUIoICfS12771.1.2423.I3154.112735.I31H.13U'I7.II1TR.,...FE~Eo)I(I.I-10.I-123.I1I1IISuRPLUSI11._O.I313.O.1ZIt>.O.Pt:AICPEA~I.OAU/GENt:K4rINGCAPACITYKEQUIkE~ENT~(MEG4~4rTS)~PUF~4~lMU~P~ANTurII.IZAIIuNFACTUM~I'ut'ACTuA~~l.~~ruTILIZATIO~t'ACID~E:.EHGY--GcNtRArlON/AN~UA~E~~kGYREuUIKEMcNTS(Hll.l.ION&uF~Il.u~ATT-"~..,H~)271 TABLE3.10.AI>(A:F..I"liANI\3FAIWAANI\SCASe:2--M£~IuM1.0AOGRO~l"tr,T£;<III:'YEM,:1~90.'IOI£5:0<;C.b,li1l1it'.U.3.-1994•(contd).CRITICAI.PEK100--------------------------------------------------------------_._._..--------------------,.:Ou5-.?uOI>,2000-<,u01,2\lu1-.?uOI!/I'£Ak",PuFU'uF£r~E~GY/P€AK,"puFlPuFEr.E~GY/PEAK,",PUFAPuFENERGY/-------------/--------------/---------_.-..----------------,//w€i.ouIREi"<:r.TS/5'50.2'137.J5&'5.2'176./575.25ZII..-----~--------I//·..f~uu..CE5/JJEn;:,TIt~&///,..YiJi/a/3Zb..':10..50lZ'lO.I32b.•50•5012110•J32&••50.50\2'10•~Tel"/ELECIjCH../5,sa1234.Ij71..7':1•.59lo!1~•.Jj71.•15."l1.51a•CO"'".TUlle11.£Io..:>0.IGo.IG.•50.10O•/O..50.10o.(/I<;l>EL./o..10.uOO.JO.•10.00O•/O..10•00O•IIIroTAl.I7100-2'1111...i&9&.2515..//>9b.Z550.II/AOOITIOhSII/·"YiJ..f)I//,src.A"/I:L£C:I/ICU"',!.TU""I"£/._.'.-IJill1ESEt..III.>IIJ!'eTI..e"'..NT:SI/I',IY1,;"JIII,1IltAHELECJ20..00.00O./I:CO"'".TUQ.,zr.EI/-'J'oIt.:>el../I/Ir/---------------///.,illJ::'::'"",:'OuRCE:::I&'Jb.ZII1'l.I&'1&.Z51S.I&90.ZS58.IIIc!'p·IorES."AllGll,11).i!Si!I0.23Z/O••HlII/"ElIE..\lEwEiI./111./113./115.III.i"OSSk,:,,20..51.I21l•37.I29.311.I//'iiTll~sull~CES/'557.Z'l37.I555.2<47l!./552.2520.I/IlitANSF£wEUIu.I111.I23.I/III/SuRPLUSI1•.O.IO.O./O.II.P€AKPeAKLOAO/GE~fRATI~~CAPlCIlY~EyUIR£~ENT5(MEGA~ATTS)....,IFHUlMUMPLAHrulTLILATIUNFACTlJKAI'OFACTUALPLA~rullLlZAlIONFACTO~E~EWGY--GeN~RATIO~/ANNUAl..ENERGYR£QuIHEMENTS(HILl..IONS·OFKILO~ATT-"OURS)272 TABLE3.10.,1IiEA:A'.CHOkAbEA,.CI,UilAl>ECA~t.:2--r~EolUM1.01.0G~Ol'iTHI~T~WTI~rfAW:I~~O.NUT~I:O~C.h,1~7~~IU.S~-Lq~4.(contd)Cf(ITICAI.P EkIu()/20U8-t!1l(j9I2t1(j~-20111Icul0-2ull/PEAt<"'PuFAr'uFE"E"~TIPEAKM.PUFAa>UFEI<E~GTIPEAl(",PUFAPUFENEl<(;T/--------------1--------------1----------------------------//I·JiE~·J~ioIa'''EftT~/Z91ld.13J5'l./3(;31>.151>71./3104.IJ'IIlJ.---------------//IW€~:ilJ..,:'~/y/EJII/PIG///H~U"OI1...11..50•501>1&0.I11>17•.50.50UI>o./11>11•.50.50oll>u..,;'J-'~.IHAJo;/ELEC/2245.•15•387400./2.:!4S•..15.391?1&•/22.45..75.31n3c!•COfo\Il.TUH';11'£/~..50~10o.IO..50.10o./O..5;).10"..J:01.."ELII,•.• 1S-.u;)·U./U..l~.110.O./u..15.110II•///TfllALI3M•.?15559../311l>c..131171>./31l"i.lj4q2./I/AuOI TIO~ISJ/Ittfui({j/..1/I~.rlA.../ELEC/I/<100..75•iU111I •CO>lIl.TU~l)WE///t.iI~!Jt·L/I'I//Iw","TII'l£rl£llT:I/I/:1'iJ~O//IsrlA"/lLEC///CG,.tt.Til"'''H.E/IIlIitSEL/I/III-------------~-II/'-~O~.;jSiF..SUu~CESI3al>i!.13~59./381>2.131171>./"2&C!.14\93.IIICAl'k£S.""fiG11./0.301/0.272I0.373///~.~~E""e.;jEu./5q,~./I>U7.I,,21.IIII.'I;'!>E'>/l<1d.200./152.20S./155.21U.//IN£TilESOuwCES/512G.13359./3103.13671./348&.139113.///TllAN:>FEI'lEO/-34./-41>.I-58../II//ISU....LUSI110.'o.I21.o.I525.0.'.PE.....--PEAt<I.UAu/GENEi<ATIII..CAPACITYREQUIHEMENTS(M£GA~ATTS),.PUF--MAXI......."L.A.../UTIL.IZATIlINFACTUWM'IlF--ACTl>AL.Pl.Ai.TUTlLHAT1011FACTu..1:1~t.WGT--GfN..RATluN/AN~UALI!NE~GTREQU1~E"ENTS(MILL10NSOFKII.UWATT-"uURS)•273 TABLE:3.10.A"EA:FAr"ljANKSFAIH8ANI\SCAS~:2--~EDluML.OADGRO~THINTF.Rlt~YEAH:1'1'111.HOleS;O~C.G,1'l1~H/U.~.-1~~4.(contd)CRI TrC...L.PERroo-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------/cO"Il-c?UO'l/200'1-2010/aOl0-2ul1/PEAl(,.PuF"PUrE..E//GY/PEAl<...PuFApuFE~EilGY/PEAKI4PUF·VUFENfioiGY/-----------.-/--------------/-----------------------------///I<EiJIJLI<t....e'HS/5A4.c?~tll./5'14.2&OJ./1003.2&4:i.---------------///i<E':;uui<CES///EX1~TtriG///"yIJI<U/32&.-•~o.5012"0.I32&•.50•50124O•/32il..50.SO1240.SfEA!4/EL.EC/371..15,•421.359./371•.15•43140l!•/311..7').4;1445.CO,"6.TURt:lINE/I)..51l.:0O./O.•50-•10O•/0..~O.10II•Olt.SEL./II..10.'I(iO./o.•10•OliO•Io..10.000•./IITnrAL/;''1&.02599./109".io"~./&/rfb.if'tf~'.,•./I/AuOLTIDliSIII"YIJIWII/:;re....../ELEC/IIC.O"'''.Tu~;;I~E/I/"I::.SEL//I///PE-rLRE1<4i./nS//I"YflRIl//ISnl.·~/EL.I(C/.,.I/CO"1b.Tu.."taE///&IeSEL./-////I---------------1I/Gl'OSilRESilURCES/~q~.2599.Ib9b•.2&42•./&<;&.2U,./I/CAl'"ES._MARGIN/0.1'102/0.172I0.154I/II/ESEK'I£;iEIJ.I117•I119.-I1021.I//L.USStS/2'1.38./30•.39./30.4U./I/i'4ET",E;;OU;.lCESI'iu.25&1.I548.21103./54'5.21145.///TRAr.sFEREu/:l".I'lb.I58.-II///ISURPL.US/II.O.Iu.Q./O.0.PEAl<PEA...L.OAO/GENERATlr.r.CA~ACITYHEQulREMENTS(MEGA~ATTS)"I'UFMAl(lI4UMPt.A.HUrtL.IlAflClNFAC1Clt<ApuFACTuAL."L."NrUTIL.lZAflONFACTOt<ENE~GT--G~N~~ATI0N/"NNU"LENERGYREQUIREMENTS(MIL.LIONSOFKILUwATT-HOURS)274 ---------------_.---_.--_._--TABLE3.11.ScheduleofPlantAdditions-(Megawatts)BaseCasesWithoutInterconnectionsAnchorageFairbanksPeriodHighMedianLowHigh~·1edianLow78-7979-8011411141114180-811001..1001100181-8218118118182-8350023004100183-8420084-85218418118110085-862886288688510086-8740010087-8820020088-8940014714714789-90200200100 10010090-9132732732791-924439243843792-9340040020010010093-9494-95400320010010095-964003400200257257257'I96-97400340040010010097-98400340020010010098-99400320010010099-00400340040000-01400301-0202-03400340003-04400320020004-0505-06400340040006-07400307-0820008-09400309-10400310-11400TOTAL78-118,2814,6812,6811,471871471Seefootnotesnextpage275 TABLE3.11..(contd)(1)ScheduledCombustionTurbines(2)ScheduledCombustionTurbines+400MWS.T.(3)Anchorage400MWCoal-FiredUnitsCouldbeReplacedwithStagedBOOMWCapacityUnits(4)ScheduledCombustionTurbine+200MWS.T.(5)BradleyLake(70MW)x1.15forPeaking+7MWS.T.NationalDefense(6)BradleyLake(70MW)x1.15forPeaking+200MWS.T.+7MWS.T.NationalDefense(7)NationalDefense(B)200MWS.T.+43MWS.T.NationalDefense(9)400MWS.T.+43MWS.T.NationalDefense276 TABLE3.12.ScheduleofPlantAdditions-(Megawatts)CasesWithInterconnection·Wi.thoutUpperSusitnaAnchorageFairbanksPeriodHighMedianLowHighMedianLow78-7979-8011411141114180-8110011001100181-8218118118182-8350023003100183-84.20084-85218618118110085-862885288s88410086-87-*-*87-8840020020088-8914814814889-90400-*200-*10090-9120032832832891-9244311243943892-9340020020093-9440010094-95-*100-*95-964007400200125101251025896-97400740020010010097-984007400200100 10098-99400740010099-00400700-01400740040001-02400702-031I00i10003-0440020004-0520005-06400706-074007TOO07-08400740008-0909-10400710-114007TOTAL78-118,2814,2812,2311,271671471Seefootnotesnextpage277 TABLE3.12.(contd)*InterconnectionInstalledDefenseDefenseDefenseNationalNationalNatrona1200MWS.T.+43MWS.T.100MWS.T.+25MWS.T.400MWS.T.+43MWS.T.(1)ScheduledCombustionTurbineAdditions(2)100MWScheduledCombustionTurbine+400MWS.T.(3)100MWScheduledCombustionTurbine+200MWS.T.(4)BradleyLake(70MW)x1.15forPeaking+7MWS.T.NationalDefense(5)BradleyLake(70MW)x1.15forPeaking+200MWS.T.+7MWS.T.NationalDefense(6)18MWScheduledCombustionTurbine+200MWS.T.(7)Anchorag&400MWCoal-FiredUnitsCouldbeReplacedwithStag~d800MWUnitsNationalDefense(8)(9)(10)(11)278 TABLE3.13.ScheduleofPlantAdditions-(Megawatts)CasesWithInterconnectionWithUpperSusitnaComingOnLinein1994AnchorageFairbanksPeriodHiohMedianLowHigh.MedianLow78-7979-8011411141114180-8110011001100181-8218118118182-835002300s.100183-8420084-85218818118110085-862887288788610086-87-*-*87-88400200 20088-8914101410141089-90400-*200-*10090-9120032103210321091-9244314243124310-*92-93-40020093-9440020010094-9567736583644313231513164395-9689386385342114411461196-9740097-9840010098-99688465441244138499-008648546454164184147400-0183410019401-02400910002-03400940010003-0420004-05400905-06400906-0740007-0840008-09400909-1020010-114009400TOTAL78-118,2214,5642,5381,360697522Seefootnotesnextpage279 TABLE3.13.(contd)*InterconnectionInstalled(1)ScheduledCombustionTurbineAdditions(2)Scheduled100MWCombustionTurbine+400MWS.T.(3)ShareofWatanacapacityx1.15forPeaking(4)ShareofDevilCanyonCapacityx1.15forPeaking(5)Scheduled100MWCombustionTurbine+20nMWS.T.(6)BradleyLake(70MW)x1.15forPeaking+ 7MWS.T.NationalDefense(7)BradleyLake(70MW)i1.15forPeaking+200MWS.T.+MWS.T.Natioqa1Defense(8)Scheduled18MWCombustionTJrbine+200MWS.T.(9)Anchorage400MWCoal-FirecrUnitsCouldbeReplacedwithStaged800MW.Units.(10)NationalDefense(ll}ShareofWatanaCapacityx1.15forPeaking+25MWS.T.NationalDefense(12)200MWS.T.+43MWS.T.NationalDefense(13)ShareofWatanaCapacityx1.15forPeaking+25MWS.T.NationalDefense(14)400MWS.T.+43MWS.T.NationalDefense280, r7000/'6000/;/';~5000b=sQC3-'~4000<....Q.,QZI<VII....3000u0:::::l0VI....0::t;:;2000,------zIr.........,,..I1000o80859095YEAR200020052010FIGURE3.6.Load/ResourceAnalysisforAnchorage-CookInletAreaWithoutInterconnectionand·WithoutSusitnaProject(Case1).Low,Medium,andHighLoadGrowthScenarios281 7lXXl//6000h/~l~5000Q~....ll<:<.....a..4000cz<'".....uc::3000::J0'".....c::I-.....z2000100020102005200095YEAR908580oL----l.-_--'-__---'-,-__---'-__-'-__-'-__"--.;..,J."..FIGURE3.7.Load/ResourceAnalysisforAnchorage-CookInletAreaWithInterconnectionbutWithoutUpperSusitnaProject(Case2).Low,Medium,andHighLoadGrowthScenarios282 -7ooo~-'------------------------,•600035000~cog.~4000~..0-.QZ<~3000u0::::;)oVI.....0:::2000~1000,.....-..I.,---..;,;-----, I~~~.~/~----808590YEAR95200020052010FIGURE3.8.Load/ResourceAnalysisforAnchorage-CookInletAreaWithInterconnectionand·WithUpperSusitnaProjectComingOnLinein1994(Case3).Low,Medium,andHighLoadGrowthScenarios283 1200""-I -I1050Ir,I'..J-~~c900C3....J~co::.....a...750,c-/"--zco::V).....U0::::::l6000V).....0::I-.....z450---I-,___,------300150o80859095YEAR200020052010FIGURE3:9.Load/ResourceAnalysisforFairbanks-TananaValleyAreaWithoutInterconnectionandWithoutUpperSusitnaProject(Case1).Low,Medium,andHighLoadGrowthScenario284 12001050l-1'-II900I§:~IQI<:7500- I...J~-'\)<:u.Jc..Q600·z<:V>u.JU-----Q::~,.0450V>::u.JQ:::t......r--u.Jz""300:or.:'~150o80859095YEAR200020052010FIGURE3.10.Load/ResourceAnalysisforFairbanks-TananaValleyAreaWithInterconnectionbutWithoutUpperSusitnaProject(Case2).Low,Medium,andHighLoadGrowthScenari285 1200.--------------,...-------------,'.;1,I/.I-,I\,-'I\II\19001050150o80859095YEAR200020052010FIGURE3.11.Load/ResourceAnalysisforFairbanks-TananaValleyAreaWithInterconnectionandWithUpperSusitnaProjectComingOnLinein1994(Case3).Low,Medium,andHighLoadGrowthScenarios286 4.0SYSTEMPOWERCOSTANALYSESThischapterdescribesthemethodologyusedtoevaluatetheannualcostofpowerfromindividualgeneratingfacilities(orgroupsofsimilargeneratingfacilities),.themethodofcomputingtheaveragesystem-wide·powercosts,andpresents.theresultsofthesystempowercostanalyses.Thefirstsectionbrieflydiscussesthefactorswhichdeterminethecost·ofpower.Thesecondsectiondescl;'ibesthecomputationalmethodusedto·computetheannualcostofpower.Thismethodisincorporatedinto.acomputermodeltitledECO~T4.AlistingofthecomputercodeisgiveninAppendixD.Thethirdsectionofthischa.ptercontainsadiscussionofhowthesystem-widepowercostsarecol1)putedgiventhepowercostsforthe'indi-vidualfacilities.Theresultsarepresentedinthelastpartofthechapter.4.1FACTORSDETERMININGTHECOSTOFPOWER'Threecost'categoriesare<evaluatedin,thisreport:l!)interestandqmortizationcharges(capitalcost);2)fuelcosts;and3)operating,maintenanceandreplacementcosts.Ofcourse,thereareothercostitemsincludedinthecostofpowertotheconsumer,.suchastaxes,.insurance,distributionandbillingcharges,butthesecostsarenotevaluatedinthisreportsincetheytypicallydonotvaryamongthethreecasesevaluated.ThesecomponentsofthecostofpowerareshowninFigure4.1.Theannualplantcapitalexpensesarefixedby.theinitialfinancingandaretypicallyconstantoverthelifeoftheplant.Operation,maintenance,andreplacementfuelcoststypicallyincreaseovertimeasaffectedbyinflationandrealpriceincreases.Asaresult,thetotalannualcostofpowerprogressivelyincreasesovertime.4.1.1CapitalCostsThecapitalcostsrepresentthetotalcostofconstructingag~neratingfacility.Thecapitalcostestimatesusedinthisanalysisinclude TOTAL'ANNUALCOST\COSTOFELECTRICITY(MILLS/KWH)TIME(YEARS)FIGL:DE4.l.ComponentsoftheTotalAnnualCostofPower--288/ interestandescalationduringconstruction.Itisassumedthatthecapitalcostsarerepaidinequal'annualpaymentsoverthepaybackperiodoftheplant.Thecapitalcostestimatesusedareinterms.ofconstantOctober1978dollars."Thetotalinvestmentcostforthegeneratingfacilitiesareshownbelow.,,coal-fired,\andhydrbel~ctric\TotalInve~tmentCost100MWCoalSteamTurbine200MWCoalSteamTurbine400MWCoalSteamTurbineWatanaDam(795MW)DevilCanyonDam(778MW)(million$)245.4372;0.646.8,2501.2834.0($/kW)2454,1860,1(;17'31461071.9SOURCE:AlaskaPowerAdministration,August197~"TransmissionfacilitycostsarepresentedinTable3.7.4.1.2,HeatRateTheheatrateistheratiooftheBtu'sgoingintotheplantasruel,.tothekWh'sofelectricityproduced.bytheplant.Theheatrateisassumedtoremainconstantforallplantutilizationfactorsoverthe1ifetim~.oftheplant.Theheatratefornewcoal-fi-~~dsteamelectricplaMtS!is~ssumedtobe10,500BtU/kWh.."4.1:{Operation.Maintenance.andReplacementCosts';-,Theoperating,maintenance.andreplacement(OM&R)costsincludetheadministrative,andgeneralexpensesaswellas,theinterimreplacementcosts.AllestimatesareexpressedintermsofOct.oberi978dollars.Theyareescalatedatarateequaitothe"rateofgeneral,inflation.TheOM&Rcostsforcbal'-firedsteamelectricandhydroelectricgeneratingfacilitiesandtransmissionfacilitiesareshownbelow.289"":1' 100·MWCoalSteamTurbine200MWCoalSteamTurbine.400MWCoalSteamTurbineWatanaDam(795Ml·J)DevilCanyonDam(778MW)NewtransmissionfacilitiesOM&RCosts.(million$)($/14J!yr)3.76 37.65.728.59.8..24.5.0.740.940.730.942.0SOURCE:AlaskaPowerAdministration,August1978.4.1.4Financing.DiscountRateThefinanci~gdiscountraterepresentsthecostofcapitaltoutility.Arateof7.0%isassumedinthisreport.Thisisassumedtobeanaverageofalltypesoffinancingavailable.4.1.5PaybackPeriodThelengthoftimeoverwhichtbeplantisfi.nanc:edisthepaYbackperiod.Thisisassumedtobeequaltotheplantlifetimeexceptforhydroprojectswherea 50-yearpaybackperiodisassumed·versusatleasta·lOO-yearplant1ifetime'(seeSection3;2;6).4.1.6AnnualPlantUtilizationFactor'Theplantuti]iz~tionfactor(PUF)istheratiooftheactualpowerproductionduringayeartothetheoreticalmaximumif.theplantwastprun~760hoursat100~capacityduringtheyear.Theannualplantutilizationfactorishighlyvariabledependinguponmanyfactprs(e:g.,forced'outagerate,costofpowerfromalternativesources;andpowerproductionrequirements).Becauseofthis,itisnecessarytoexplicitlyconsidertheeffectsofthePUFonthecostorpoweroverthelifetimeofaplant.Aspointedoutearlier,thePUFsusedi.nthereportaredeterminedby~theload/resource;analyses(seeSection3.2;6).....4.1.7UnitFuelCostsFuelcostsforthermalgenerationplantsareexpectedtoincreaseovertimesfollowingpathsshowninFigures4.2through4.4fornatural290 BELUGA&HEALY10,.------------------"0.1L----L__..L-_---L__...L-_---l809020001020FIGURE4.2.EstimatesofFutureCoalPrices-2%arid7%EscalationSOURCE:AlaskaPowerAdministration,August1978.291 10.0LoANCHORAGE-KENAIBELUGA//////7%//\\\0.17080-90001020FIGURE4.3.EstimatesofFutureNaturalGasPrices-2%and7%EscalationSOURCE:AlaskaPowerAdministration,AU9ust1978.292 :=JI-'":E10..0:.;;:;;:FAIRBANKS/IIII117'10IIIIIIII.IIIIII"IIIIIIANCHORAGEcKENAIPENINSULA,::I'l'I,FIGURE4.4.EstimatesofFutureFuelOilandDieselPrices-2%and7%EscalationSOURCE:AlaskaPowerAdministratiori,August1978.293 gas(CookInletareas),coaland·distillab1eof1.AlthoughnaturalgasislikelytobecomeavailableintheFairbanksregionintheearlytomid1980's,Federalpoliciesareexpectedtoprecludeitsuseforeowergen-erationexceptforprobingandthecostisindetermentatthepresenttime.4.1.8GeneralInflationRateBecauseoftheuncertaintyinvolvedinestimatingthefuturerateofinflation,twoalternativecasesareevaluated.Aconstantdollarcase(0%inflation),anda5%inflationcase.4.1.9ConstructionEscalationRateInthisanalysis,constructioncostsareassumedtoescalateatthesamerateastherateofgeneralinflation.where:'4.1.10Fue1Esca1ationRateDuringanyyeartheelectricalpowerproductioniscomputedthus:*,.=(ICAP*PUFi*HPY)/1000EPPEThefuelescalationrateissettoequalthegeneralinflationrateplus2%.4.2.METHODOFCOMPUTINGTHEANNUALCOSTOFPOWERFROMINDIVIDUALGENERATINGFACILITIES·ICAP=Installedcapacity(MW)PUFi=Platutilizationfactorinyeari(fraction)HPY=Hoursperyear(8'760hours/year)*Parameterswiththesubscriptiareassumedtovaryeachyearoverthe1ifetimeoftheplant..'Parameterswithoutthesubscriptareassumedtobeconstantoverthelifetimeoftheplant.294 Thetotalannualcosts(TAC)arecomposedoftwoelements:variablecostsandfixedcosts.Inequationform:TAC.=VARC.+FIXC,.,,where:VARCi=Variablecostsinyeari($/Year)FIXCi=Fixedcostsinyeari($/Year)Thevariablecostsconsistonlyofthe.fuelcosts.VARCi=FUELCiwhere:FUELCi=Fuelcostsinyeari($/Year).Inturn,fuelcostsarecomputed:FUELCi=HEATR*EPPROi*UFUELCiwhere:HEATR=Heatrate(Btu/kWh)EPPROi=Electricalpowerproductiohinyeari(MMkWh)UFUELCi=Unitfuelcostsinyeari($/MMBtu)The·fixedcostsconsistoftwofactors.Thesefactorscanbewrit-teninthefollowingequationform:FIXCi=INTAM+OMRCiwhere:.INTAM=Interestandamortization(capitalrecovery)charges($/Year)OMRCi=Operations,maintenanceandreplacementcostsinyeari($/Year).Theinterestandamortizationcharges(INTAM)representtheannualdebtservicepayments.295 INTAM=CRF*TINVCwhere:CRF=CapitalRecoveryFactorTINVC=TotalInvestmentCosts($)Thecapitalrecoveryfactorisusedtocomputeafutureseriesof.equalend-of-yearpaymentsthatwilljustrecoverapresentsumpovernperiods.atcompoundinterest(IR).It·iscomputedthus:(l,p.26),IR(l+IR)PBPCRF=-(1+IR)PBP_lwhere:PBP=Paybackperiod(years)Themethodologydescribedinthis·sectionis·incorporatedintoacomputermodelcalledECOST4.4.3METHODOFCOMPUTINGAVERAGESYSTEMPOWERCOSTOncethecostsofproducingpowerfromthevariousindjvidualgen-eratingfacilitiesinasystemareknown,amethodofcomparingthetotalcostof~~werfromthethreealternativesystemconfigurationsevaluatedinthisreportisneeded.Tocomparetheoverallcostofpowerproduced'bythesealternativesarelativelystraightforwardmethodisused.Thecostsofproducingandtransmittingpowerforeachofthegenerationandtransmissionfacilitiesareaddedtl1getherforeachyearduringtheperiod1978-2010.Inequationform:n=L;=1where:~ACj=totalannualcostofpowerproductionforthesysteminyearj($).296 .,'ACij=annualcostofprod·uciilg..or~t;ansmittingpowerforfacilityiduring,yearj($)n=numberofgenerationand'transmissionfacilities'insystem;·:Likewisetheamountofpowerproducedbyeachfaci11tyduringeachyearissummedtogiveasystem-widetotal:TAPPjwhere:n=I:i=lPp.,'lJ=to1;alannualpowerproductionforthesysteminyearj(kWhs)TAPPjPPij=power'producedbyeac!1-generatingfacilityiduringyearj.(KWHs)n=numberofgeneratingfacilitiesinsystemBydividingthetotalcostbythetotalgenerationanaverage,costofpowerforthesystemisobtainedforeachyear.EPCOSTjwhere:='.TACjTAPP,. JEPCOSTj=averagesystem-widecostofpowerforyearj($/kWh)Bycomparingthecostsofpower,thesystemproducingthelowestcostofpowercanbeselected.4.4RESULTSOFSYSTEMCASHFLOWANDPOWERCOSTCALCULATIONS'Theresultsofthesystemcash.flowandpowercostcalculationsarepre-sentedinthissection.Aspointedoutearlierinthereportthreecaseswereevaluated:Case1.Alladditionalgeneratingcapacityassumedtobe'coal-firedsteamturbineswithoutatransmissioninterconnectionbetween"theAnchorage-CookInlet.areaandthe.Fairbanks~Tanana,Valleyloadcenters.297 Case,2.Alladditionalgeneratingassum~dtobecoal-firedsteamturbinesincludingatransmissionirceY·connection.Case3.AdditionalcapacitytoincludetheUpperSusitnaproject(includingtra!,!smissioninterconnection)plusadditionalcoalasneeded.UpperSusitnaas:umedtocomeonlinein1994.Tables4.1through,4.36presentthecashflowanupowercostcalculatedforthe3cases.Thecontentsofthesetablesaresummarizedbelow:/TableNumber4.123456789101112.31-;15161718192021222324252627282930313233343536AreaAnchorage"""II"II"IIIIII"II"IIIIII"Fairbanks"IIII""II"II"IIIIIIIIIIIILoadGrowthScenarioLow"IIIIIIIIMedium"IIIIII"HighIIIIIIIIIILowII"IIII"MediumIIII"II"HighIIIIIIII298"2II3II1II2II3II1II2II3IIII2II3II1,II2II3'II1II2,-II3IIInflationRate(%)o5o5o5o5o5o5o5o5o5o5o5o5o5o5o5o5o5o5 , TABLE 4.1.Anchorage-Cook Inlet Area.Low Load Growth Scenario.Case 1.0%Inflation Total Cost New Hydroelectrtc Transm1 55 fan _tlew COill Fir~d Capacity _Costs Systems total Total Total System of Existing Investment --oM&R Coal Investment OM&R Investment OII&R loves trnent System Consumptton.Average Power . ..!ill.-CapacHy ~osts_.CosLs COS~~n __~~~!L-~Costs costs.$MMr.WH Costs ,t/KUH 78-79 33.1 ---------------0.6 0.4 ---34.1 2376 1.4 79-80 42.2 ---------._----0.6 0.4 ---43.2 2568 1.7 60-8\48.2 ----_.-_.---..-0.6 0.4 .--49.2 2706 1.8 81-82 52.8 -----.'---.-..-0.6 0.4 ---53.8 2850 1.9 82-83 61.1 _..---3.1 ----_.0.6 0.4 -_.65.3 ,2991 2.2 83-84 62.0 ._._..3.3 ------0.6 0.4 ...66.3 3132 2.1 84-85 66.7 -_.._.J.3 ------0.6 0.4 ._-71.1 32iJ 2.2 65-86 66.7 1.3 0.2 3.6 10.9 0.4 0.6 0.4 12.8 84.1 3433 2.4 8b-'lI 67.2 1.3 0.2 3.7 '10.9 0.4 0:6 0.4 12.8 84.8 3594 2.3 8/-88 66.4 30.0 5.9 6.7 10.9 0.4 17.1 3.6 58.0 141.0 3754 3.7 83-$9 59.0 30.0 5.9 9.6 10.9 0.4 17.1 3.6 58.0 136.6 3915 3.5 89-90 '54.5 58.7 11.6 16.6 10.9 0.4 17 .1 3.6 86.7 173.4 4075 4.2 90·91 50.2 58.7 11.6 22.5 10.9 0.4 17.1 3.6 86.7 175.0 4285 4.\ '"'"91-92 47.1 66.8 13.2 26.6 10.9 0.4 17.1 3.6 94.8 185.7 4495 4.1 '"223.39.2-~3 42.4 95.5 10.9 34.5 10.9 .0.4 17.\3.6 123.5 4705 4.7 93-94 38.9 95.5 18.9 41.9 10.9 0.4 17 .1 3.6 123.5 227.2 4915 4.6 94·95 39.4 124.2 24.6 50.7 10.9 0.4 17.1 3.6 152.2 270.9 5125 5.3 96-96 34.5 152.9 30.3 5•.9 10.9 0.4 17 .1 3.6 180.9 306 .•5385 5.7 96·97 ~lJ.3 202.8 40.1 64.1 10.9 0.4 17.1 3.6 230.8 ~67.3 5645 6.5 97-98 25.4 202.8 40.1 69.1 10.9 0.4 17.1 3.6 230.8 369.4 5904 6.3 98·99 27.4 202.8 40.1 74.1 10.9 0.4 17.1 3.6 230.8 376.4 6164 6.1 99-2000 22.6 252.7 49.9 80.4 10.9 0.4 3.3.5 6.8 297.1 457.2 6424 7.1 00,01 12.2 252.7 49.9 83.8 10.9 0.4 33.5 6.8 297.1 450.2 M89 6.9 01-02 11.0 252.7 49.9 06.9 10.9 0.4 33.5 6.8 297.1 452.1 6555 6.9 °l·03 4.8 252.7 49.9 90.4 10.9 0.4 33.5 6.8 297.1 449.4 6620 6.8 03·04 4.8 252.7 49.9 93.3 10.9 0.4 33.5 6.8 297.1 452.3 6686 6.8 ~-05 3:6 252.7 49.9 96.6 10.9 0.4 33.5 6.8 297.1 454.4 6751 6.7 0.-06 3.6 302.6 59.7 99:6 10.9 0.4 33.5',',6.8 '347.0 517.1 6017 7•• 06-07 3.6 302.6 59.7 102.7 10.9 0.4 ,·33.5 •.8 347.0 520.2 '6882 7.5 07-OS 3.6 302.6 59.7 105.8 10.9 0.4 33.5 6.0 347.0 523.3 6948 7.5 08-09 3.6 302.6 59.7 IOB.9 10.9 0.4 33.5 6.8 347.0 526.4 7013 7.5 09-10 3.6',302.6 59.7 112.1 10.9 0.4 33.5 6.8 347.0 529.6 7079 7.5 Ill-II 3.6',302.6 59.7 115.4 ".Ill.9 0.4 33:5 6.8 i47.0 532.9 '7144 7.5 ..,..~"".'" TABLE 4.2.Anchorage-Cook Inlet Area,Low Load Growth 'Scenario,Case 1,5%Inflation " Hew Jlydroelectrtc Transmission Total .Co~t New Coal Fit'cd capactth--Costs SYstems Tota.l rotal Total System of Existing Investment ON&R Coa Investment OM&R Investment OM&R loves trnent System Consumption.Average Power ..1!!L Capact ty Costs fQ.!ts Costs Costs _f.Qili _COSt5_Costs Costs Costs,$IfIK11I1 Costs,'C/KWH 78-79 '29,7 -_.----_._.----0.7 0.4 ---30.8 2376 1.3 79-80 39.1 ...---------0.7 0.4 ---40.1 2568 1.6 80-81 45.7 .'-._----------0.7 0.4 ---46.8 2706 1.7 8\-82 47.9 ----_.---------0.7 0.5 -_.49.1 2850 1.7 82-83 59.5 ...---3.1 -.----0.7 0.5 ---63.9 2991 2.\ 83-84.63.6 ------3.3 ----_.0.7 0.5 ..-60.1 3il2 2.2 64-85 68.7 ------3.3 ---_.-0.7 0.5 ---73.3 3273 2.2 ,85-86 68.9 2.0 0.4 3.6 14.8 0.6 6.7 6.5 17.5 90.8 3433 2.6 86-87 69.8 2.6 '0.4 3.9 14.8 0.6 0.7 0.5 17.5 92.7 3594 2.6 87-88 67.1 46.6 9.2-7.3 14.8 0.6 24.1 5.4 85.5 175.2 3754 4.7 88-89 60.6 46.6 9.7 II.1 lui 0.6 24.1 5.7 '85.5 173.2 3915 4.4 89'90 56.4 95.7 19.9 20.1 14.8 0.7 24.1 '6.0 134.6 231.8 4075 5.8 90-91 52.5 95:7 20.9 28.6 14.8 0.7 24.1 6.3 134.6 243.6 4285 5.7 Co>91-92 49.8 111.i 24.8 35.2 14.8 0.7 kl 6.6 150.0 267.2 4495 5.9 0 92-93 47.4 168.0 37.4 14.8 O.a 24.1 4705048.4 6.9 206.9 347.8 7.4 93-94 46.5 168.0 39.2 61.3 14.8 0.8 24.i 7.3 206.9 362.0 4915 7.4 94-95 48.5 230.7 51.6 77.9 14.8 0.9 24.1 ,7.7 269.6 456.2 5125 8.9 95-96 43:8 296.5 67.3 92.2 ,14.8 0.9 24.1 8.1 335.4 547.7 5385 10.2 96-97 36.3 416.7 94.3 108.6 14.8 0.9 24 ..1 8.5 455.6 704.2 5645 12.5 9F98 37.7 416.7 99.0 122.6 14.8 1.0 24.1 8.0 455.6 724.8 5904 12.3 98-99 37.5 416.7 103.9 138.4 14.8 1.0 24'.1 9.3 455.6 '745.7 6164 12.1 99·2000 31.7 555.8 136.4 .156.6 14:8 1.1 68.3 18.4 638.9 983.1 6424 15.3 00-01 i6.7 555.8 143.3 172.0 14.8 1.1 68.3 '19.3 638.9 991.3 6498 15.3 ol-iii 15.3 555.8 150:4 186.5 14.8 ,1:2 68.3 20.3 638.9 1012.6 6555 15.4 02-03 5.4 555.8 157.9 204.8 14.8 1.3 66.3 21.3 638.9 1029.6 6620 15.5 03-04 5.5 555.8 165.8 221.6 14.8 1.3 68.3 22.4 638.9 1055.5 6686 15.8 04-05 3.6 555.8 174.1 240.4 14.8 J..i 68.3 23.5 638.9 1081.9 6751 16.0 05-06 3.7 742.3 219.4 25!L8 14.8 1.5 68.3 24.6 825.4 1334.4 6817 19.6 06-07 3,9 742.3 230.4 280.8 14.8 ,1.'5 M.3 25.9 ,825.4 1367;9'6802 19.9 07-08 4.0 742:3 241.9 303.6 14;8 '1:6 68.3 -27.2 825:4 1403.7 6948'20.2 08·09 4.1 742.3 25,1.0 '328.2 14.8 1.7 68;3 .28.5 825.4 1441.9 7013 20.6 09-10 4.2 472.3 266.7 354.6 ~ 14.8 1.8 68.3 30.0 825.4 1482.7 7079 20.9 10-11 4.4 742.3 280.1 302.9 14.8 1.9 68.3 31.5 825.4 1526.2 7144 21.4 ,- TABLE 4.3.Anchorage-Cook Inlet Area.Low Load Growth ,Scenario.Case 2.0%InJlation Ne~Coal f.!r~d capaC!Mr_ New lIydroelectr1c,.TransmissionTotalf;ost Costs Systellls Total TO,tal Total Sy~temofExfsUngInvestlllentOM&R Coa investiiieor-OH&Jr Investment OH&R Investment System Consumption.Average Powe~.:tlli-.Capact ty Costs ~~-~~-fQU!.Costs Costs Costs Costs.S IlMK~1l Costs.t/KWH 78-79 33.1 ------------.---0.6 0,4 ---34.1 2376 .'.479-80 42,2 ------ - - - ---0.6 0 . 4 ---43.2 2568 1.780-81 48.2 ------ - - - ------0.6 0.4 ---'49.2 2706 1.88.1-82 52.8 --------- - - - - - - 0.6 0.4 ---53.8 2850 1.982-83 6,1,1 ---:,.•".3.1 ---~.-'0.6 0.4 ---'65:3 2991 2.283-84 62.0 ------.3.3 ------0.6'0.4 ---'66.3 3132 2.104-85 66.7 ------3:3'------0.6 0.4 ---71.1 3273 2.285-86 66.7 1.3 0.2 3.6 10:9 0:4 0:6 0:4 12.8 84.1 3433 2.4'86-81 61.2 1.3 0.2 3.1 10.9,'0.4 8.6 '0.4 12.8 84.8 3594 2.381-88 66.4 30.0,5.9 6.7 10.9 0.4 17.1'3.6 58.0 141.0 315~3.188-89 59.0 30.0 5.9 9.6 10.9 0,4.17.1 3.6 58.0 136.6 3915 3.589-90 54.5 5 8 . 1 11,6 16.6 1 0 . 9 0.4 11.1 3.6 86.1 173.4 4015 4.290-91 50.2 5 8 . 1 11,6 22.5 10.9 0.4,11.1 3.6 86.1 115.0 4285'4.1c.>,91-92 41.1 66.8,13.2 26.6 :10.9 0.4 17.1 3.6 94.8 185.1 4495 4.1091,93 42:,4 95.5 18.9 34.5 10.9 0.4 17.1 3.6 123.5 223.3 4105 4.1- 93,94 38.9 '95.5 18.9 41,9 10.9 0.4 17:1 3.6 123.5 221.2 4915 4.694-95 39.4 95.5 18.9,4.6.3 10.9 0.4 35.9 5:6 142;'j'252.4 5125 4.995-96 34.5 124.2'24.6 ?5.3 10.9 0.4 35.9 5.6 171,0 290.9 5385 5.496-91 28.3 152.9 30.3 64.1 10.9 0.4 35.9 5.6 199.'1 321.9 5645 5.891-98 25.4 202.8 '40.1 69.2 10.9 0.4 35.9 '5.6 249.6 389.8 5904 6.698-99 21.4 282.8 40.1 14.1 10:9 0,4 35.9 5.6 249.6 396.1 6164 6.499-2000 22.6 202.5 40.1 80.4 '10.9 0.4 35.9 5.6 249.6 391.9 6424 6.280-01 12.2 252.1 49.9 83.8 10.9 0.4 52.4 8:8 316.0 410.6 6489 1.201-82 '11.0 252.,1 49.9 86.9 10.9 8.4 52.4 8.8 316:0 412.5 6555 1.202-03 4.8 525.1 49.9 90:4 10.9 0.4 52.4 .8.8 316 •.0 469.8 6620 I .•83-04 4.8 252.1 49.9 93.4 10.9 0.4 52.4 '8.8 316.8 412.8 , 6686 1.104-05 3.6 252.1 49.9 96.6 10.9 0.4 52.4 '8.8 316.0 414.8 6151 1.005-06 3.6 52~.1 49.9 99.6 10.9 0.4 '52:4 8.8 316.0 411.8 6011 1.006-01 3.6 252;7-49:9 99.6 10.9 0.4 52:4 8.8''316.0 480.9 6882 1.087-08 3.6 252.1 49.9'105.1 10.9 0:4 52.4 8.8 316.0 484.0 6948 1.008-09 3.6 252.1 49 •.9 108.9 10.9 '0.4 52.4 8.8 316.0 481.1 1013 6.9,09-10 3.6 252.1 49.9 112.1 10.9 0.4 52.4 8.8 316.0 490.3 1019 6.910-11 3:6 ,252.1 49.9 115.4 10.9 0.4 52:4 "0:8 316.0 493.6 1144 6.9 " TABLE 4.4.,Anchorage-Cook Inlet Area.Low Load Growth Scenario.Case 2.5%Inflation Hew Hydroelectric Transmission Tota 1 Cost flew eoa 1 fi red capaC1~Costs ~m5 Total Totil Total System of Exlst1ng rrlvestme-nr-OJ.1&R toa lnvestmcntO~'&'R-TiiVes tment -OFf&R Investment Systell c.ol'!sumpt1on.Average Power ~Capac1 ty Costs Costs Costs Costs Cosh ~!!-Costs Costs Costs.S MMKWII Costs.¢/KIoiH 78-79 29,7 ---------------0.7 0.4 ---30.8 2376 1.3 79-80 39,1 ------ ------0,7 0.4 ---40.1 2568 1.6 80-81 45.7 --- ------.------0.7 0,4 ---46,8 2706 1.7 81-82 47,9 _.-,------ --- ---0,7 0,5 ---49.1 2850 L7 82-83 59,5 3,1 0,7 .0,5 .. 63,9 2991 2.1._.----------.- 83-84 63,6 ...---3.3 _.----0,7 0,5 --.68cl 3132 7,2 84-85 68.7 -.-,---3,3 ----_.0.7 0.5 ..-73.3 3273 2.2 85-86 68.9 2.0 0.4 3.6 14.8 0.6 ,c 0.7 0.5 17.5 90.8 3433 2.6 86-87 69.8 2.0 0.4 3 ')4;8 0.6 0.7 0.5 17.5 92.7 3f:94 2.6 87-88 6'1'.1 46.6 9.2 7.'.J .14.8 0.6 24.1 5.4 '85.5 175.2 3754 4:7 .BB·89 60.6 46.6 9.7 11.1 14.8 .0.6 .24.1 5.7 85.5 .173.2 3015 4.4 89-90 56.4 95.7 19.9 '20.1 14.8 .0:7 24.1 6.0 134.6 237.8 4075 5.8 90-91 52.5 95.7 20.9 20.6 14.8 0.7 24.1 6.3 134.6 243.6 4285 5.7 ""91-97 49.8 111.1 .74.8 35.7 14.0 0.7 24.1 6.6 150.0 267.7 4495 5.9 0 97-93 47.4 168.0 37.4 48.4 14.8 0.8 74.1 6.9 206.9 347.8 4705 7.4'"93,94 46.5 168.0 39.7 61.3 14.8 0.8 24:1 7.3 206.9 367.0 4915 7.4 94.-95 48.5 168.0 39.3 71.7 14.8 0.9 63.6 9.7 246 ..4 416.0 5125 8.1 95-96 43.8 233.8 54.4 89.5 14.8 0.9 63.6 10.3 312.2 511.1 5385 9.5 96-97 36.3 307.9 70.8 103.6 14.8 0.9 63.6 10.8 381.3 638.7 5645 10.8 97-98 37.7 479.1 99.1 127.6 14.8 1.3 63.6 11.3 507.5 719.2 5984.13.7 98-99 37.5 479.1 104.1 138.4 14.8 1.0 63c6 11.9 507.5 800.4 6164.13:0 99-7030 31.7 429.1 109.3 156.6 14.8 1.1 63.6 17.5 507.5 818.7 .6424 17.7 00-31 16.7 575.2 143.4 177.3 14.8 1.1 110.0 27.1 700.0 1055.3 6439 16.3 01-07 15.3 575.2 153.6 136.4 14.8 1.2 110.0 23.2 730.0 1076.7 6555 16.4 07 ..03 5.4 575.7 158.1 204.9 14.3 1.3 113.0 24.4 703.0 1094.1 6623 16.5 03.04 5.5 575.7 166.1 271.6 .14.3 1.3 110.0 25.6 700.0 1"120.1 6686 16.7 04-05 3.6 575.2 174.4 740,4 14.8 1.4 110.3 26.9 700.0 1146.7 6751 17.0 05-06 3.7 575.2 163.1 259.8 14.3 1.5 110.3 26.2 700.0 1176.3 6817 17.2 06-07 3.9 .575.2 197.2 280.8 14.8 1.5 110.0 29.6 700.0 1208.0 6882 17.5 07-38 4.0 575.7 701.8 303.6 14.3 1.6.110.0 31.1 700.0 1247.1 6948 17.9 08-09 4.1 575.2 211.9 323.7 14.3 L7 110.0 32.7 730.0 1278.6 7013 18.2 09-10 4.2 575.2 222.5 35<.6 14.8 1.8 113.0 34.3 700.0 1317 .4 7079 13.6 10-11 4.4 575.2 233.7 382.9 14.8 1.9 110.0 36.0 .700.0 1358.9 7144 19.0 -----==:---:=====-----:--=--------=------:----:---..-------=~-~_..~----= TABLE 4.5.Anchorage-Cook Inlet Area,Low Load Growth Scenario,Case 3,0%Inflation Ht:!w Ilydroelectr1c Transmission Total Cost _N~~_Joal f!r~!!Capact.!i'__Costs Systems Total Total Total System of Existing Investment OM&R Coal Investment-OM&R Investment OI1&R Inves tment Systelft Consumption.Average Power ..l!!L Capdctty Costs Costs Costs Costs Costs ~.!L-Costs Costs Costs,$~!i!L_Costs.¢/KWli 78-79 33.1 ---------------0.6 0.4 ---34.1 2376 1.4 79·80 42.2 -----.-.-------0.6 0.4 ---43.2 2568 1.7 80-81 48.2 ..-------_.----0.6 .0.4 ---.49.2 2706 1.8 81-82 52.8 --------- ------0:6 0.4 .-.53.1i .2850 1.9 82·83 61.1 ..---.3.1 ._--_.0.6 0.4 ---65.3 2991 2.2 83-84 62.0 ..-..-3.3 ------0.6 0.4 ..-66.3 3132 2.1 84-85 66.7 --- --- 3.3 ...-_.0.6 0.4 ---71.1 3213 2.2 85-86 66.1 1.3'0.2 3.6 10.9 0.4 0.6 ·0.4 12.8 84.1 3433 2.4 86-81 67.2 1.3 0.2 3.1 10.9 0.4 0.6 ·0.4 12.8 84.8 3594 2.3 81-88 66.4 30.0 5.9 6.7 10.9 0.4 17 .1 3.6 58.0 141.0 3754 3.1 88-89 59.0 30.0 5.9 9.6 10.9 0.4 17 .1 3.6 58.0 136.6 3915 3.5 89-90 54.5 58.7 11.6 16.6 10.9 0.4 17.1 3.6 86.7 .173.4 4015 4.2 90-91 50.2 58.7 11.6 22.5 10.9 0.4 17.1 3.6 86.7 115.0 4285 4.1 w 91-92 47.1 66.8 13.2 26.6 10.9 0.4 35.9 5.6 113.6 206.0 4495 4.60w'92-93 •42.4 66.8 13.2 30.3 10.9 0.4 35.9 5.6 113.6 205.0 4105 4.4 93·94 38.9 95.5 18_9 38.9 10.9 0.4 35.9 5.6 142.3 244.5 4915 5.0 94'-95 39.4 95.5 18.9 20.6 155.9 1'.0 35.9 5.6 287.3 312.3 5125 1.3 95-96 34.5 95.5 18.9 21.6 155.9 1.0 35.9 •5.6 287.3 368.4 5385 6.8 96-91 28.3 95.5 18.9 21.9 155.9 1.0 35.9 5.6 281.3 368.5 5645 6.5 97-98 25.4 .95.5 lH.9 32.2 155.9 1.0 35.9 5.6 287.3 369.9 5904 6.3 98-99 21.4 95.5 18.9 26.4 155.9 1.0 35.9 5.6 287.3 376.1 6164 6.1 99-2000 22.6 95.5 18.9 '7.9 204.2 1.6 35.9 5.6 335.6 391.7 6424 6.1 lJtl~Ol 12.2 95.5 18.9 8.0 204.2 1.6 35.9 5.6 335.6 38).4 6489 5.9 Ol~O2 11.0 95.5 18.9 8.1 204.2 1.6 35.9 5.6 335.6 380.3 6555 5.6 02-03 4.8 95.5 18.9 9.3 204.2 1.6 35.9 5.6 335.6 315.3 6620 5.7 03-04 4.8 95_5 18.9 10.6 204.2 1.6 35.9 5.6 335.6 316.6 6686 5.6 04-05 3.6 95.5 18.9 12.0 204.2 1.6 35.9 5.6 335.6 376.8 6751 5.6 05-06 3.6 95.5 18.9 13.2 204.2 1.6 35.9 5.6 335.6 378.0 6817 5.5 06-07 3.6 95·.5 18.9 14.6 204.2 1.6 35.9 5.6 335.6 319.4 6682 5.5 01·00 3.6 95.5 10.9 16.0 204.2 1.6 35.9 5.6 ~35.6 380.8 6948 5.5 00-09 3.6 95.5 18.9 17.4 204.2 1.6 35.9 ·5.6 335.6 382.2 7013 5.4 09-10 3.6 95.5 18.9 18.9 204.2 1.6 35.9 5.6 335.6 383.7 7079 5.4 10·11 3.6 95.5 18.9 20.4 204.2 1.6 35.9 5.6 335.6 385.2 7144 ..5.4 .. TABLE 4.7.Anchorage-Co~k Inlet Area,Medium Load Growth Scenario,Case 1,0%Inflation Hew Ilydroelectrf.c Transmission TotalTotalCostHewCoa1FiredCapacityCosts.Systems Total Total Systelll of ExtStlng Investment .OM&R Coal Investment OHIR Investment OM&R Investment System Consumption,Average 1"00000r 2ru:.-Capacity Costs fQ.U!Costs Cosls fQ.tl!.-Costs ~Costs Costs,$''''KWH Costs.UK"'H 78-79 33.1 ---------------.6 .4 ---34.1 2531 1.3 79-80 42.2 ---------------.6 .4 ---.43.2 2801 1.5 80-81 48.2 --- --- ---.~-----.6 .4 --.49.2 304.1 1.6 81-82 52.8 ---------------.6 ::4 ---53.8 3281 1.6 ,82-83 61.1 28.1 5.7 6.5 ------.6 .4 29.3 103.0 3521 2.9 '83-84 62.0 28.7 5.7 9.2 ------.6 .4 29.3 106.6 3761 2.8 84-85 '66.7 28.7 5.7 11.8 ------.6 .4 29.3 114.0 4001 2.8 85-86 66.7 58.7 11'.6 '18.5 10.9 .4 17.1 3.6 86.7 107.6 4329 4.3 86-87 67.2 58.7 11.6 24.19 10.9 ",4 17.1 '3.6 86,,7 193.7 4657 4.2 87-88"66.4 87.4 17.3 29.9 10.9 0.4 17.1 3.6 '115.4 233.0 4985 4.7 88-89 59.0 87.4 17.3 36.2 10.9 0:4 17.1 3.6 115.4 231.9 5313 4.4 89-90 54.5 116.1 23,0 46.4 10.9 0;4 17.1 '3.'6 144.1 272.0 '5641 '4.8 90-91 50.2 116.1 23.0 52.9 10.9 0.4 17.1 3.6 144.1 274,.2 6063 4.5 '"91-92 47.1 152.9 30:3 61.9 10.9 0.4 17.1 3.6 180.9 324.2 6485 5.00 In 92·93 42.4 202.8 40.1 70.2 '10.9 0.4 17.1 3.6 230.8 387.5 6907 5.6 93-94 38.9 202.8 40.1 77.9 10.9 '0.4 17.1 3.6 230.8 391.7 7329 5.3 94-95 39.4 202.8 40,1 84.6 10.9 0.4 17 .1 3.6 230.8 398.9 7751 5:1 95'95 34.5 252.7 49.9 9~6 10.9 0.4 17 .1 3.6 280.7 463.7 8311 5.6 96-97 28.3 302.6 59.7 106.8 10.9 0.4 33.5 6.8 ];)•.0 549.0 8871 6.2 97-98 25.4 352.5 69.5 116.9 10.3 0.4 33.5 6.8 396.9 615.9 9431 6.5 98-99 27.4 ~53.5 69.5 126.7 10.9 0.4 3i.5 6.8 396..9 627.7 9991 6.3 99-2000 22.6 402.4 79.3 130.5 10.9 0.4 33.5 6",0 446.8 694.4 10551 6.6 00-01 12.2 402.4 79.3 146.3 '10.9 0.4 33.5 6.8 446.8 691.8 10863 6.4 01-02 11.0 402.4 79.3 l!I.~.3 10.9 0.4 33.5 6.0 446.8 698.6 1117,5 6.3 02-03 4.0 '452.3 09.1 162.5 10.9 0.4 33..5 6.0 496.7 760.3 11'407 6.,6 03-04 4.8 452.3 89.1 170.7 10.9 0.4 33.5 6.8 496.7 767.9 11799 6.5 04-05 3.6 452.3 09.1 179.4 ,10.9 0.4 33.5 6..0 496.7 776.0 12111 6.4 05-06 3.6 502.2 90.9 100.0 10.9 0.4 50.0 10.0 563.1 864.0 12423 6.9 06-07 3.6 502.2 90.9 196.0 10.9 0.4 50.0 ,10.0 563.1 872.0 12735 6.0 07-08 3.6 502.2 98.9 205.9 10.9 0.4 50.0 10.0 563.1 801.9 13047 6.0 00-09 3.6 502.2 90.9 215.1 10.9 0.4 50.0 10.0 563.1 891.1 13359 6.7 09-10 3.6 502.2 98.9 224.6 10.9 0.4 50.0 10.0 563 ..1 , 901.6 13671 6.6 10-11 3.6 552.1 100.7 234.2 10.9 O.~50.0 10.0 613.0 969.9 13983 6.9 TABLE 4.8.Anchorage-Cook Inlet Area,Medium Load Growth Scenario,Case 1.5%.Infl ation New ~droelectr1c Transmt ss 10n Iota 1 Cost New Coal Fired Capactty Costs SYstems Total Total Total System of Existing Investment OH&R Coa 1 Investment OI'lAR Investment MAR Investment System Consumption.Average Power ..1m..-~.lli!L-Costs Costs Costs Costs Costs ~t_s_Costs Costs Costs.$"'J~KWU Costs,"!KWH 78-79 29:7 ---------------0.7 0.4 ---30.8 2531 1.2 79-80 39.1 ---------_.---0.7 0.4 ---40.2 2801 1.4 80-81 45.7 --------- --- ---0.7 0.4 ---46.8 3041 1.5 81-82 47.9 ---------------0.7 0.5 ---49.1 3281 1.5 82-83 59.5 34.9 6.9 6.5 ------0.7 0.5 35.6 109.1 3521 3.1 83-84 63.6 34.9 7.2 9.2 -----0.7 0.5 35.6 116.1 3761 3.1 84-85 68.7 34.9 7.6 11.0 ----.-0.7 0.5 35 ..6 124.3 4001 3.1 85-86 68.9 71.3 16.4 18.1 14..8 0.6 23.0 4.9 115.1 .224.0 4329 5.2 86-87 69.8 71.3 17.2 25.3 14.0 0.6 23.0 5.1 115.1 233.2 4657 5.0 87-88 67.1 121.9 26.8 32.7 14.8 0.6 23.0 5.4 159.7 292.3 4985.5.9 88-89 60.6 121.9 28.2 41.6 14.8 0.6 23.0 5.7 159.7 296.5 5313 5.6 89-90 56.4 171 ;0 39.3 56.3 14.8 0.7 23.0 6.0 208.8 367.5 5641 6.5 9~-91 52.5 171.0 41.3 67.3 14.8 0.7 23.0 6.3 208.8 376.9 6063 6.2 '"91-92 49.8 240.6 56.9 82.2 14.8 0.7 23.0 6.6 278.4 474.6 6485 7.30 C-92-93 47.4 339.5 79.2 •98.6 14.0 0.8 23.0 6.9 371.3 608.6 6907 0.8 93"94 46.5 339.5 03.2 t13.9 14.8 0.3 23.0 7.2 371.3 628.9 7329 8.6 94-95 48.5 339.5 87.3 130.1 14.8 0.9 23.0 7.6 371.3 659.3 7751 8.5 95-96 43.8 454.0 114.2 153.3 14.8 0.9 23.0 8.0 491.8 812.0 8311 9.7 96-97 36.3 574.2 143.5 180.8 14.8 0.9 63.0 16.0 652.0 1029.5 8871 11.6 97-98 37.7 700.4 175.5 207.2 14.8 1.0 63.0 16.6 718.2 1216.2 9431 12.9 98·99 37.5 700.4 184.2 236.7 14.8 1.0 63.0 17.4 718.2 1255.0 9991 12.6 99-2eOO 31.8 839.5 220.8 269.7 14.8 1.1 63.0 18.3 917.3 1459.0 10551 1'3 .8 00-01 16.7 839.5 231.8 300.2 14.8 1.1 63.0 19.2 917.3 1486.3 10863 13.7 01·02 15.3 839.5 243.4 331.2 14.8 1.2 63.0 20.2 917.3 1528.6 11175 13.7 02·03 5.4 1000.6 207.2 368.3 14.8 1.3 63.0 21.2 1078.4 1761.8 11487 15.3 1000.6 . 405.2 14.8 1.3 63.0 22.2 1078.4 1814.1 11799 15.403-04 5.5 301 .5 04-05 3.6 1000.6 316.6 446.6 14.8 1.4 63.0 23.3 1078.4 1869.9 12111 15.4 05-06 3.7 1187.1 369.0 490.4 14.8 1.5 116.7 34.9 1319.6 2218.1 12423 17.8 06-07 3.9 1187.1 387.5 53H.4 14.0 1.5 116.7 36.6 1318.6 2286.5 12735 17.9 07-08 4.0 1187.1 406.8 590.9 14.0 1.6 116.7 38.5 1318.6 2360.4 13047 18.1 08-09 4.1 1107.1 427.2 648.1 14.8 1.7 116.7 40.4 1318.6 2440.1 13359 18.3 09-10 .4.2 1187..1 448.5 710.1·14.0 1.8 116.7.42.4 1318.6 •2525.6 13671 18.5 10-11 4.4 1425.1 517.7 717.3 14.0 1.9 116.7 44.6 1556.6 2902.5 13983 20.7 JABLE 4.10.Anchorage-Cook Inlet Area,'Medium Load Growth Scenario,Case 2;5%Inf,lation New Hydroelectric Transmtssion ,/' Total Cost NPow Coal fired CapacitY Costs ~5tem5 Total Total Total System of Existing tnvesTni"ii"t1iFl&R toa 1 Investment OIlIe-nves tmentONllr Investment System Consumption,Average Power ~Capacity Costs Costs Costs Costs -~Costs Costs Costs .Costs.$!'V'IKWH Costs.¢/KWtl 78-79 29.7 _.-------._.---0.7 0:4 ..-30.8 2531 1.2 i9~80 39.1 ..----------0.7 0.4 ---40.2 2801 1.4 80·81 45.7 ---------------0.7 0.4 ---'46.8 3041 1.5 81-82 47.9 --------- ------0.7 0.5 ---49.1 '3281 1.5 82-83 ",.59.5 34.9 6.9 6.5 ---._-0.7 0.5 35.6 109:i 3521 3.1 83-84 63.6 34.9 7.2 9.2 -----0.7 0.5 35.6 116.1 3i61 3.1 84-85 68.7 34.9 7.6 11.8 ------0.7 0.5 35.6 124.3 4001 3.1 85-.6 68.9 77.3 16.4 18.1 14.3 0.6 23.0 4.9 115.1 224.0 4329 5.2 86-87 69.8 71.3 17.2 '25.3 14.8 0.6 23.0 5.1 115.1 2i:i.2 4657 5.0 87-88 67.1 121.9 26.8 32.7 14.0 0.6 23.0 5.4 159.7 292.3 4985 5.9 88"89 60.6 121.9 28.2 41.6 i4.8 0.6 23.0 5.7 159.7 296.5 5313 5;6 89.90 56.4 121.9 29.6 51.5 14.8 0.7 .53.9 9.3 190.6 330.1 5641 6.0 90'9.1 52.5 173.5 41.3 63.7 14.8 0.7 53.9 9.7 242.2 410.1 6063 6.8 '"91·92 49.8 243.1 56.9 70.3 14.8 cd 53.9 10.2 311.8 507.8 6485 7.80 CD 92-93 47.4 342.0 79.2 98.5 H.B 8.8 53.9 18.7 410;7 647,4 6907 9.4 93-94 46.5 342.0 83.2 113.8 14.8 0.8 53.9 11.3 410 ..7 666.4 7329 9.1 94-95 48.5 342.8 87.3 138.1 14.8 0.9 53.9 11.8 410.7 689.3 7751 8.9 95-96 43.8 465.5 114.2 153.3 14.8 0.9 53.9 12.4 534.2 858.8 8311 10.3 96-97 36.5 576.7 143.5 180.8 14.8 0.9 93.9 20j 685.4 1067.8 8871 i2;0 97-90 37.7 576.7 150.6 207.1 14.8 1.0 93.9 21.9 685.4 1103.8 9431 11.7 98-99 37.5 709.2 184.2 236.6 14.8 1.0 93.9 23.0 817.9 1300.3 9991 13.0 99·2000 31.7 709.2 193.4 269.7 14.8 1.1 93.9 24.2 817.9 1338.1 10551 12.7 00-01 16.7 855.3 231.7 .300.2 14.8 1.1 93.9 25.4 964.0 1539.1 10863 14.2 01-02 15.3 855.3 243.3 331.2 14.8 1:2 93.9 26.7 964.0 1581.7 11175 14.1. 02-03 5.4 955.3 225.5 358.3 14.8 1.3 93.9 28.0 964.0 1592.S 11487 13.~. 03-84 5.5 1024.4 301.5 405.2 14.8 1.3 93.9 29.4 1133.1 1876.0 11799 15.9 04-05 3.6 1024.4 316.6 446.6 14.8 1.4 93.9 30.9 1133.1 1932.2 12111 15.9 05-06 3.7 J024.4 332.4 490.4 14.8 1.5 93.9 32.4 1133.1 1993.5 .12423 16.0 06-07 .3.9 1024.4 349.0 538.4 ,1.4.0 U 93.9 34.0 11 i3.1 2059.9 12735 .lp. 07-08 4.0 1230.0 405:8 .590.9 14.8 1.6 •148;9 46.7 1393.7 2443.7 '-13847 18.7 88·09 4.\1230.0 427.1 648.1 14.0 .1.7 148;9 49.0 1393.7 2523.7 13359 18.9 09·10 4,2 1230.0 448.4 710.1 14.8.1.8 148.9 51.5 1393.7 2609.7 13671 19.1 10-11 4.4 1230.0 470.8 777.3 14.8 1.9 148.9 54.1 1393.7 2702.2 13983 19.3 TABLE 4.11.Anchorage~Cook Ih1et Area,Medium Load Growth Scenario,Case 3.0%Inflation Total Cost Nel~Ilydroe 1ectr1 c TranslAission TotalNewCoalFired,Capac1!l--:..Costs _-2Y.stems Total Total System of Existing Investment OH&R Coal Investment IlM&R Investment lJII&R Investment System Consumption.Average Po~er ..!m.-Capacity Costs _~Costs Costs _Cos t5 Costs ~Costs Costs.$I1liKWH Costs.t/KWH 78·79 33.1 .........1.0 .........._-34.1 2531 79·80 42.2 _.-...._.Lo ...._.---'-'43.2 2801 80·81 78.2 ......'"1.'0 ...........,49.2 3041 81·82 52.8 ..-_.._..1.0 ...._.---..'53.8 3281 82-83 .'.61.1 28.7 5.7'6.5 1.0 _..._.29.3 103.0 3521 83·84 62.0 28;7 5.7 9.2 1.0 .........29.3 106.6 3761 84·85 66.6 28.7 5.7 11.8 20.7 ..._..-..29.3 114.0 4001 85·86 66.7 58.7 '11.6 18.4 20.7 ...-..-_.86.7 lS7.6 4329 d6-aJ 67.1 58.7 \1.6 24.1 20.7 ..-......86.7 193.7 4657 87·8tl 66.3 87.4 17.3 30.1 20.7 -....._..115.4 233.0 4985 M·89 59.0 87.4 17.3 36.2 10.9 0.4 17.1 3.6,115.4 231.9 5313 4.4 89,90 54.5 87,:4 '17.3'~2.5 10.9 0.4 35.9 5.6 134,2 254.5 5641 4.5 90·91 50.2 116.1 24.6 .50.1 10.9 0.4 35.9 5.6 162.9 293.8 6063 4.8w91·92 47.1 152.9 31.9 59.1 10.9 0.4 35.9 5.6 199.7 343.80 6485 5.3 -0 92-93 42.4 202;8 41.7 70.2 10.9 0.4 35.·9 5.6 249.6 '409.9 6907 5.9 93·94 38.9 '202~6 41.7 77.9 10.9 0.4 35.9 5.6 2~9.6'414.1 7329 5.6 94-95 39.4 202.8 41.7 53.3 157.7 1.1 35.9 '5.6 396.4 537.5 7751 6.9 95·96 31.5 202.8 41.7 58.6 157.7 1.1 35.9 5.6 396.4 537.9 8311 6.5 96·97 28.3 202.8 41.7 69.9 157.7 1.1 35.9 5.6 396.4,543.0 8871 6.1 97·90 '25.4 202.8 41.7 79.1 mY 1.1 35.9 5.6 39b.4 '549:3,9431 5.8 98·99 27.4 202.8 41.7 54.5 206.6 1.8 35.9 5.6 445.3 576.3 9991 5.8 99-2000 22.6 202.8 41.7 60.2'206.6 1.8 35.9 5.6 445.3 577.2 10.551 5.5 00·01 12.2 202.8 41.7 66.8 206.6 1.8 35.9 5.6 445.3 573.4 ,10.863 5.3 0\-02 11.0 202.8 41.7 73.1 206.6 1.8 35.9 5.6 445.3 578.5'11.175 5.2 02·03 4.8·252.7 51.5 80.0 206.6 1.8 52.4 8.8 511.7 658.6 11.487 5.7 03-04 4.8 252.7 51.5 86.5 206.6 1.8 52.4 8.8 511.7 665.1 11.,799 5.6 04-05 3.6 252.7 51.5 93.4 206.6 1.8 52.4 6.8 511.7 670:8 12.m 5.5 05-06 3.6 252:7 51.5 100.2 206.6 1.8 52.4 8.8 511.7 677.6 12.423 5.4 06-07 3.6 302.6 61.3 107.3 206.6 1.8 52.4 8.8 561.6 744.4 12.735 .5.8 07-08 .3.6 302.6 61.3 114.5 206.6 1.8 52.4 8.8 561.6 751.6 13 1 00 5.8 08·09 3.6 302.6 61.3 121.9 206.6 1.8 52.4 8.8 561.6 759.0 13,359 5.7 09·\0 3.6 302.6 61.3 129.6 206.6 1.8 52.4 8.8 561.6 766.7 13.671 5.6 10-11 3.6 352.5 71:1"137.5 206.6 1.8 52.4 8.8 611'.5 .834.3 13.983 5.9 TABLE 4.12.Anchorage-Cook Inlet Area,Medium Load Grow~h Scenario,Case 3,5%Inflation New Hydroelectric TranslIltssion Total Cost New Coal Fired Capacity Costs Systems Total Total TOtil System of Existing TiWestment OM&R coal loves tment MR tnvestmen~~Investment System Consumption.Average Power ....Y!!L-Capacity Costs Costs Cost_,_Costs fQill.Costs fQ!!!.Costs Co~ts·.$IlIlKWH Costs,(/KWH 78·79 29.7 ._-------------0.7 0.4 ---30.8 2531 1.2 79-~0 39.1 -.----------0.7 0.4 ---40.2 2801 1.4 80-81 45.7 ---------'--.---0.7 0.4 ---46.8 3041 1.5 81-82 47.9 ---------------0.7 0.5 _L 49.1 3281 1.5. 82-83 59.5 34.9 6.9 6.5 -----.0.7 0.5 35.6 109.1 352\3.1 83-84 63.6 34.9 7.2 9.2 -----0.7 0.5 35.6 116.1 3761 3.1 84-85 68.7 34.9 7.6 11.8 ------0.7 0.5 35.6 124.3 4001 3.1 B~-d6 68.9 17.3 16.4 18.1 14.3 0.6 23.0 4.9 115.1.224.0 4329 5.2 86-87 69.8 17.3 17.2 25.3 14.8 0.6 23.0 5.1 115.1 233.2 4657 5.0 87-88 67.1 121.9 26.8 32.7 14.8·0.6 23.0 5.4 159.7 .292.3 4985 5.9 88-89 60.6 121.9 28.2 41.6 iu 0.6 23.0 5.7 159.7 296.5 5313 5.6 89-90 56.4 121.9 29.6 51.5 \4.8 0.7 53.9 9.3 190.6 336.1 5641 6.0 90-91 52.5 ·173.5 41.3 6].7 14.8 0.7 5].9 9.7 242.2 410.1 606]6.8 '"91-92 49.8 24].1 56.9 76.3 14.6 0.7 53.9 10.2 311.8 507.8 6485 7.8-0 47.4 342.0 79.2 96.5 14.8 0.8 5].9 10.7 410.7 647.4 6967 9.492-9] 9]-94 46.5 342.0 83.2 113.il 14.0 0.8 53:9 11.3 410.7 666.4 7]29 9.1 94-95 48.5 342.0 il7.4 82.1 323.7 2.4 53.9 11.8 119.6 951.8 1751 12.3 95-96 43.8 342.0 91.7 94.9 32].7 2.5 53.9 12.4 719.6 964.9 8311 11.6 96-97 36.3 342.0 96.3 118.3 323.7 2.7 53.9 13.6 719.6 986.2 8871 11.1 97-98 37.7 342.0 101.1 140.2 323.7 2.8 5].9 1].7 719.6 1015.1 94]1 10.6 98-99 37.5 342.0 ·106.2 101.8 446.8 4.4 53.9 14.3 844.7 1109.0 9991 11.1 99-2000 31.7 342.0 111.5 .117.2 448.8 4.6 53.9 15.1 844.7 1124.8 10.551 10.7 00-01 16.7 342.0 117.1 ·137.1 448.8 4.9 53.9 15.8 844.7 1136.3 10.86]10.5 01-02 15.3 342.0 122.9 156.8 448.8 5.1 53.9 16.6 844.7 1161.4 11.175 10.4 02-03 5.4 503.1 160.7 181.4 ·448.8 5.4 104.9 26.9 1056.8 14]6.6 11,487 12.5 03-04 5.5.503.1 168.7 205.3 446.8 5.6 104.9 28.2 1056.8 1470.1 11.799 12.4 04-05 3.6 503.1 117.1 232.5 448.8 5.9 104.9 29.6 1056.8 1505.5 12.111 12.4 05-06 3.7 503.1 185.9 261.4 440.8 6.2 104.9 31.1 1056.0 1545.1 12,42]12.4 06-07 ].9 698.9 233.7 29].5 448.8 6.5 104.9 32.7 1252.6 1822.9 12,735 14.3 07-08 4.0 698,9 245.4 ]28.7 448.8 6.8 104.9 34.3 1252.6 1871.8 13.047 14.3 08-09 4.1 698.9 257.6 367.5 446.8 7.2 104,9 36.0 1252.6 1925.0 13.359 14.~. 09-10 4.2 696.9 270.5 40~.9 446.8 7.5 104.9 37.8 1252.6 1982.2 13,671 14.5 16-11 4.4 936.9 330.7 456.3 446.8 7.9 104.9 39.7 1490.6 2329.6 13,983 16.7 •TABLE 4.13.Anchorage-Cook Inlet Area,High Load Growth Scenario,Case 1,0%'Inflation New ~droelectrfc . Total Cost New Coal Ffredcapac~Transmission Costs ~stems Tot.l Tot"l Yahl System·of Existing Investment OM&R oa InvestmentOHlr nvestrn~Investment System Consumption.Average Power...!!!!:..-Capacfty Costs fill!.CostL-.Costs ~Costs ~Costs Costs ,$MHK\ol1l Costs,(/KWH 78-79 33.1 --- - - - ---------0.6 0 . 4 ---34.1 26BO 10379-80 42.2 ---------------0.6 0 . 4 ".._-;43.2 3025 1.480-81 48.2 ---------'------0.6 0 . 4 ---49.2 36Bq 1.381-82 52.8 ---------------0.6 0.4 ---53.8 4352 1.282-83 61.1 57.4 11.4 9.8 --- - - - 17.1 3.6 74.5 160.5 5015 3.283-B4 62.0 '86.1 D.I lB.6 ------17.1 3.6 103.2 204.5 5679 3.664-B5 66.7 114.B 22.8 29.9 ------17.1 3.6 131.9 254.9 6342 4.085-B6 66.7 144.8 28.7 44.8 10.9 0.4 17.1 3.6 142.8 317.0 6849 4.686-B7 67.2 164.7 3B.5 66.2 10.9 0.4 17.I 3.6 192.7 36B.6 7357 5.0B7-BB 66.4 164.7 38.5 73.4 10.9 0.4 17.1 3.6 192.7 375.0 786.4.B8B-09 59.0 214.6 4B.3 81.2 10.9 0.4 33.6 6.B 259:1 454.B 8372 5.4B9-90 54.5 214.6 48.3 8B.6 10.9 0.4.33.6 '6.8 259.1 457.7 BB79 5:190-9i 50.2 214.6 4B.3 96.5 10.9 0.4 33.6 6.8 259.1 463.3 95B9 4.8'" 541.0-91-92 47.1 272.6 59.7 109.9 '10.9 0.4 33.6 6.8 317.1 10,298 5.2-92-93 42.4 322.5 69.5 120.1 10.9 0.4 33.6 6.8 367.0 606.2 11,008 5.593-94 38.9 322:5 69.5 132.6 10.9 0.4 33.6 6.8 367.Q 615.2 11,717 5.394-95 39.4 372.4 79.3 143.9 10.9 0.4 33.6 6.8 416.9 686.7 12,427 5.595-96 34.5 422.3 89.1 161.3 10.9 0.4 50.1 10.0 483.3 778.6 13,477 5.896-97 28.3 472.2 98.9 181.5 10.9 0"-50.1 10.0 533.2 .852:3 14,526 5.997-98 25.4 522.1 108.7 200.1 10.9 0.4 50.I 10.0 583.1 927.7 15,576 6.098-99 27.4 572.0 118.5 217.9 10.9 0.4 50.1 10.0 633.0 1008.2 16,625 6.I99-2000 22.6 621.9 128.3 238.7 10.9 0.4 66:6 13.2 699.4 1102.6 1 7 , 6 7 5 6.200-01 12.2 671.8 13B.I 256.6 10.9 0.4 66.6 13.2 749.3 1169.8 18,5B4 6.301-02 11.0 671.8 138.I 275.8 10.9 0.4 .66.6 li.2 749.3 1187.8 1 9 , 4 9 3 6.102-03 4.8 721.7 147.9 294.6 10.9 0.4 66.6 13'.2 799.2 1260.1 20,402 6.203-04 4.8 771.6 157.7 314.7 10.9 0:4 66.6 13.2 849.1 1339:9 21,311 6.304-05 i.6 771.6 157.7 335.6 10.9 0.4 66.6 13.2 849.1 1359.6 22,220 6.105-06 3.,6 'B21;5 167.5 356.9 19.9 0.4 '03.1 16.4 .915.5 1460.3 23,129 6.306-07 .3.6 '071.4 177.3 376.8 10.9 0;4 83.I 16.4 965.4 1541.9 ',24,038 6.407-0B 3.6 871.4 177 .3 401.2 10.9'0.4 03.1 16.4 965.4 1564.3 24 ;947 6.308-09 3.6 921.3 IB7.I 42·1.2 10.9 0.4 03.1 16.4 1015.3 1 6 4 7 . 0 25,056 6.409-10 ,,3.6 971.2 196.9 447.8 10.9 0.4 83.1 16.4 1065.2 1730.3 26,765 6.510-11 3.6 971.2 196.9 472.0 10.9 0.4 83.1 16.4 1065.2 1754.5 27,674 6.3 TABLE 4.14.Anchorage-Cook Inlet Area~High Load Growth Scenario~Case 1,5%Inflation .:'':. New Coal fired capadti New.Hydroelectric Transmission Total Cost Costs '.:Systems Total Total Total System of Exlstin9 Investment OM&R 'Coal Investment OM&R Investment OMiR Investment System Consumption,Average Power ,Year,Capacity Costs Costs Cosli._Costs Costs Costs Costs Costs Costs,$MMKWH Costs,IIKWH 78-79 29.7 ------------0.7 0.4 ---30.8 2680 .1.1 79~~Q.,39.1 .'.-----------'.0.7 0.4 ---40.2 3025 1.3 8O~81 45.7 ---------------0.7 0.4 ---46.8 3688 1.3 81-82 47.9,---------------0.7 0.5 .~'--~49.1 4352 1.1 82-83 59.5 69.8 13.8 9.9 -----".21.0 4.4 90.8 178.4 5015 3.6 83-84 63.6 106.4'21.8 18.6 ------21.0 4.6 127.4 236.0 5679 4.2 84-85 68.7 144.9 30.5 29.9 ------21.0 4.9 165.9 299.9 6342 4.7 85-86 68.9 .'187.3 38.9 44.8 14.8 0.6 21.0 ,5.1 223.1 381.4 6849,5.6 86-87 69.8 261.1 49.2 69.4 14.8 0.6 21.0 5.4 296.9 491.3 1356 6.7 87-88 67.1 261.1 51.7 80.5 14~8 0.6 21.0 '5.6 296.9 502.4 7864 6.4 &1-89 60.6 342.5 70.2 93.4 14.8 0.-6 48.1 11.2 405.4 641.4 8372 7.7 89-90 56.4 342.5 73.7 107.4 14.8 0.7 48.1 11.7 405.4 655.3 8870 7".4 90-9\52.5 342.5 77.4 125.4 14.0 0.7 48.1 12.3 405.4 673.7 9509 7.0w91-92 49.8 452.1 102.6 145.9 1'4.8 48.1 12.9 515.0 826.9 10.298.8.0...0.7 ~13.6 8~ll92-93 47.4 551.0 127.2 160.5 14.8 0.8 48.1 613.9 971.4 11.008 93-94 46.5 551.0 133.5 193;8 14.8 0.8 48.1 14.3 613.9 1002.8 11,717 8.6 94-95 48.5 660.0 161.6 221.3 14~8 0.9 48.1 15.0 722.9 1)70.2 12,427 9.4 95-96 43.8 774.5 192.2 261.2 14.8 0.9 87.1 22.7 876.4 1397.2 13.477 10.4 96-97 36.3 894.7 225.4 307.4 14.0 0.9 87.1 ,23.9 996.6 ,1590.5 14,526 10.9 97-98 37.1 1020.9 261.5 354.5 14.8 1.0 87.1 25.1 1122.8 1802.6 15,516 11.6 98-99 37.5 1153.4 300.5 407.1 14.8 1.0 81.1 26.3 1255.3 .2027.7 16.625 12.2 9!i-2000,31.7 1262.6 342.8 464.8 14.8 1.1 131.3 36.2 1438:7 2315.3 17.675 13.1 00-01 16.7 '1438.7 3811.7 526.5 14.8 1.1 131.3 31.9 l!i84.0 2555.7 18,584 13.8 01-02 15.3 1430.7 4011.1 592.6 14.0 1.2 131.3 39.9 1584.8 2641.9 19,493 13.6 02-03 5.4 1599.8 460.1 667.5 14.8 1.3 13J.j 41.9 1745.9 2922.1 20,402 14.3 03-04 .5.5 1769.0 516.3 746.8 14.8 1.3 131.3 43,,9 1915.1 3228.9 21,311 15.1 04-05 3.6 1769.0 542.2 835.5 14.8 1;4 131.3 46.1 1915.1 3343.9 22,220 15.0 05-06 3.7 1955.5 605.9 930.8 14.8 1.5 184.),58.4.2154.6 3754.9 23.129 16.2 06-07 3.9 2151.3 674.6 103!i.9 14.8 1.5 184.3 61.3 2350.4 4127.6 24~O38 17.2 07-08 4.0 2151.3 700.3 1151.5 14.0 1.6 184.3 64.4 2350.4 4280.2 24.941 17.2 ,,08.09 4.1 2367.2 706.1 1278.1 14.8 1.7 184.3 67.6 2566.3 4703.9 25.856 18.2 09-10 4.2 2593.9 869.9 1416.3 14.8 1.8 184.3 70.9 2793.0 5156.1 26,765 19.3 10-11 4.4 2593.9 913.4 1566.6 ..14.8 1.9 184.3 74.5 2793;0 5353.8 27.674 19.3 '" TABLE 4.15.Anchorage-Cook Inlet Area,High Load Growth Scenario,''Case 2,0%Inflation New lIydroelectric Transmission Total Cost·New Coal Fired Capa,ity Costs Systems Total Total Total System of Existing TiiVestment 'OM&R'Coa 1 Investment llMt.'R Investment OM&R Investment 'System Consumption.Average 'Po~r ...Year 'CapacHy Costs Costs Costs Cost.s Costs Costs Costs Costs Costs;$foVolKWH Costs,t/KWH 78-79 33.1 ---------------0.6 0.4 ---34.1 2680 1.3 79:':80'42.2 ------------ --- 0.6 0.4 -.-43.2 3025 1.4 80-81 48.2 ------ ---------0.6 0.4 ---'.49.2 3688 1.3 ~'.~ 435281-82 52.8 ---------------0.6 0.4 .---"53.8 1.2. 82-83 61.1 57.4 11.4 9.8 ------17.1 3.6 74.5 160.5 '5015 3.2 83-84 "62.0 86.1 17.1 18.6 ------17.1 3.6 '103~2 204.5 .5679 3.6 84-85 66.7 114.8 22.8 29.9 ------17~1 3.6 131.9 254.9 6342 4.0 85-86 66.7 144.8 28.7 44.8 .10.9 0.4 '17.1 3.6 142.8 317.0 6849 4.6 86-87 67.2 144.8 28.7 58.7 10.9 0.4 35.9 5.6 191.6 352.2 '7357 4.8 87-88 66.4 194.7 33.5 73.4 10.9 0.4 35.9 5.6 -241.5 420.8 7864 5.3 88-89 59.0 194.7 38.5 ·81.2 10.9 0.4 35.9 5.6 241.5,'426.2 8372 5.1 89-90 54.5 244.6 48.~88.6 10.9 0.4 52:4 8.8 307.9 508.5 8879 5.7 Co)90-91 50.2 244.6 48.3 98.5 10.9 0.4 52.4 8.8 307.9 514.1 9589 SA-41.1 109.9 52.4 591.8 10.298W91-92 302.6 59.7 10.9 0.4 8.8'365.9 5.7 92 ..93 42.4 302.6 59.7 120.1 10.9 0.4 52.4 8.8 365.9 597.3 11.008 5'.4 93-94 38.9 352.5 69.5 132.6 10.9 0.4 52'.4 8.8 415.8 666.0 11 .717 5.7 94-95 39.4 352.5 69.7 143.9 10.9 0.4 52.4 8.8 415.8 678.0 12.427 5.5 95~96 34.5 402.4 79.3 161.3 10.9 0.4 52.4 8.8 465.7 75(j-,0 13.471 5.6 96-97 28.3 452.3 89.1 Iln.5 10.9 0.4 68.9 12.0 532.1 843.4 14.526 5.8 97-98 25.4 502.2 98.9 200.1 10.9 0.4 68.9 12.0 582.0 918.8 15.576 5.9 98-99 27.4 552.1 108.7 217.9 10.9 0.4 68.9 12.0 631.9 998.3 16.625 6.0 22.6 . 17.675 6.r '99-2000 602.0 118.5 238.7 10.9 0.4 68.9 12.0 681.8 1074.0 00-01 12.2 651.9 128.3 256.5 10.9 0.4 85.4 15.2 748.2 l1(iO.8 18.584 6.2 01-02 11.0 701,.8 138.1 275.8 10.9 0.4 8504 15.2 798.1 1238.6 19.493 6.3 02-03 4.8 7.51.7 147.9 294.6 10.9 0.4 85.4 15·.2 848.0 1310.9 20.402 6.4 03-04 4.8 751.7 147.9 314.7 10.9 0.4 85.4 15.2 848.0 1331'.0 21,311 6.2 04-05 3.6 751.7 147.9 335.6 10.9 ,0.4 85.4 15.2 848.0 1350.7 .22.220 6.1 05-06 3.6 801.6 157.7 356.9 10.9 0.4 85.4 15.2 897.9 1431.7 23,129 6.2 06-01 ,1.6 851.5 167.5,378.8 10.9 0.4 85.4 15.2 947.8 15.13.3 "24.038 6.3 07-08 3.6 901.4 177 .3 401.2 10.9 0.4 101.9 18.4 1014.2 1615.1 24.947 6.5 08-09 3.6 901.4 177 .3 424.2 10.9 0.4 101.9 18.4 1014.2 1638.1 25.856 6.3 09-10 3.6 951.3 187.1 447~6 10.9 0.4 101.9 18.4 1064.1 1721.4 26.765 6.4 10-11 3.6 1001.2 195.9 472.0 10.9 0.4 101.9 18.4 1114.0 1801.7 27.674 6.5 TABLE 4.16.Anchorage-Cook Inlet Area,High Load Growth Scenario,Case 2,5%Inflation Total Cost New·/lydroelectrtc TransQlI ss ton New Coal Fired Capacity Costs Systems ..Total Total Total System of Existing InvestmeiltoH&R .Coal lnvestment OMlR lnvestrnent OM&R Investment System Consumption,Average Power .1!!L Capacity Costs Costs Costs Costs ~Costs Costs Costs _Costs,$MMKWH Costs,t/KWtI 78~79 29.7 ---------------0.7 0.4 ---30.8 2680 1.1 79-80 3~.1 ------ --- ------0.7 .0.4 ---40.2 3025 1.3 80-81 45.7 ----'----- --- --- 0;7 0.4 ---46.8 3688 1.3 81"82 I 1.147.9 ------ ---------0.7 0.5 ---49.1 4352 82-83 59.5 69.8 13.0 9.9 ------21.0 4.4 90.8 1.78.4 5015 3.6 83-84 63.6 106.4 21.8 18.6 ------21.0 4.6 127.4 236.0 5679 4.2 84-85 68.7 144.9 30.5 29.9 ------21.0 4.9 165.9 299.9 6342 4.7 85-86 68.9 187.3 38.9 .44.8 14.8 0.6 21.0 5.1 223.1 381.4 .6849 5.6 116-87 69.8 187.3 40.8 61.5 14.8 0.6 47.7 0.1 249.8 430.6 4357 5.8 87~88 67.1 264.8 58.0 80.5 14.8 0.6 47.7 8.6 327.3 542.1 786'4 6.9 68-69 60.6 264.8 60.9 93.4 14.8 0.6 4'7.7 9.0 327.'3 551.8 8372 6.6 89-90 56.4 350.2 80.8 107.4 14.8 0.7 74.8 14.7 439.8 699.8 8879 7.9 90~91 52.5 350.2 84.8 125.4 14.8 0.7 74.8 15.4 439.8 718.6 9569 7.5 Co)91-92 49.8 459.8·110.5 145.9 14.8 0.7 74.8 16:2 549.'4 872.5 •10.1'98 8.5... -~92~93 459.8 115.9 '74.8 549.2 11.00847.4 168.5 14.8 0.8 17.0 899.0 8.2 93-94 46.5 563.6 142.2 193.9 14.8 0.8 74.8 17 .9 653.2 1054.5 11,717 9.0 94-95 48.5 563.6 149.3 221.3 14.8 0.9 74.8 18.8 563.2 1092.0 12.427 8.8 95-96 43.8 678.1 179.2 261.2 14.8 0.9 7U3 19.7 767.7 1272..5 13,477 9.4 96-97 36.3 798.3 211.8 307.4 14.8 0.9 113.8 27.7 926.9 1511.0 14,526 10.4 97-98 37.7 924.5 247.2 354.5 14.8 1.0 113.8 29.1 1053.1'1n2.6 15,576 11.1 98-99 37.5 1057.0 285.5 407.1 14.8 1.0 113.8 30.5 111l5.6 1947.2 16.625 11.7 99:2000 31.7 1196.2 327.1 464.1l 14.8 1.1 113.8 32.0 1324.0 2181.5 17',675 12.3 00-01.16.7 1342.3 372.2 526.5 14.8 1.1 160.2 42.6 1517.3 2476.4 18,584 13.3 01-02 15.3 1495.7 420.9 591.8 14.8 1.2 1(lO.2 .44.7 1670.7 2744.6 19,493 14.1 02~03 5.4 1656.8 473:!l'"667.5 14.8 1.3 160.2 46.9 1831.8 3026.4 20.402 14.8 in.~04 !i.5 1656.8 497.2 746.13 14.8 l.3 160.2 49.3 1831.8 3131.9 21.311 14.7 04'-:65 3.6 1656.0 522.1 835.5 14.8 104 160.2 51.6 1831.8 3246.2 22,220 14.6.:"~2018.3OS--06 ·3.7 1843.3 •584-.8 930.8 14.8 1.5 160.2 54.4 3593.5 23,129 15.5 06-07 3.9 2039.1 652.4 1035.9 14.8 1.5 16(f,2 57.1 2214.1 3964.9 ?4',038 -16.5 ./:'_ 07~08 4.0 2244.7 725:3 1151.5 14.8 1.6 215.2 -70.9 2474.7 4428.0 24,947 17.7 08-09 4.1 2244.7 761.6 1278.1 14.8 1.7 215.~74.5 2474.7 4594.7 25.8S6 17.8 0~-1O 4.2 '"2471.4 844.2 1416.j;,·14;8'1.8 215.2 78.2 '270L4 5046.1 26.765 18.8 10-11 4.4 2709.4 933..1 1566.6 ::.,14.8 1.9 215.2 82.1 2939-.4 5527.5 27,674 19.9 :".:' TABLE 4.17.'Anchorage"':Cook Inlet Area,High,Load Growth Scenario,Case 3,0%Inflation New Hydroelectric Transmission Total Cost New Coal FIred CapacHy Costs Systems TQtal Total Total System of Existing Investment OM&R Coal !i1YestmentQM1JC Investment ~Inv~stRJe.!lt System Consumption.Average Power ~CapacHy Costs Costs Costs Costs Costs Cos~_~Costs Costs,$MMKWH Costs;tlKIiH 78-79 33.1 ---------------0.6 0,4 ---34.1 2680 1.3 79-80 42.2 ---------._-----0,6 0.4 ---43.2 3025 1.4 80 c 81 48.2 ---------------0.6 0.4 ---49.2 3688 1.3 81-82 52.8 ---------------0.6 0.4 ---53.8 4352 1.2 82-83 61.1 57.4 11.4 9.8 ------n.l 3.6 74.5 160.5 5015'3.2 83-64 62.0 86.1 17.1 18.6 ------17,1 3.6 103.2 204.5 5679 3.6 64-85 66:7 114.8 22.8 29.9 ------n.l 3.6 131.9 254.9 6342 4.0 65-86 66.7 144.8 28.7 44.8 10.9 0.4 17.1 3.6 142.8 317.0 6849 4.6 86-87 67.2 144.8 28.7 58.7 10.9 0.4 35.9 5.6 191.6 352.2 7357 4.8 81~88 66A 194.7 33.5 73.4 10.9 0.4 35.9 5.6 241.5 420.8 7864 '5.3 88-89 59.0 194.7 38.5 81.2 10.9 0.4 35.9 5.6 241.5 426.2 8372 5.1 '89-90 54.5 244.6 46.3 88.6 10.9 0.4 52.4 8.8 307.9 508.5 8879 5.7 90-91 50.2 244.6 4tl.3 90.5 10.9 0.4 52.4 8.0 307.9 514.1 9589 5.4 w 91292 47;1 302.6 59.7 109.9 10.9 ().4 52.4 8.8 365.9 591.8 10,296 5.7... U1 92-93 '42;4 302.6 59;7 120.1 10.9 0.4 52.4 8.8 365.9 597.3 11,008 5.4 ,93-94 '38.9 352.5 69.5 132.6 10.9 0.4 52.4 8.8 415.8 666.0 11,717 5~7 94~95 39.4 352.5 69;5 111.7 163.1 1.1 52.4 8.8 568.0 '798.'5 12,427 6.4 95~96 34;5 352:5 69.5 '124.2 163.1 1.1 52.4 8.8 568.0 806.1 13,477 6.0 96-97 28.3 402.4 79.3 143;5 163.1 1.1 68.9 12.0 634.4 898.6 14,526 6.2 97-98 25.4 452.3 '89.1 161.2 163.1 J.1 68.9 12.0 684.3 973.1 15,576 6.2 98-99,27.4 452.3 89.1 143.9 213.8 1.7 66.9 12.0 684.3 1009.1 16,625 6.1 99;2000 22.6 452.3 89.1 158.5 213.8 1.7 66.9 12.0 664.3 1016.9 n,675 5.6 00-01 12.2 452.3 89.1 175.1 213.8 1.7 6lJ.9 12.0 684.3 '1025.1 18,564 5.5 01-02 11.0 502.5 98.9 192.5 213.8 1.7 68.9 12.0 765.2 1101.3 19,49:;)5.6 02-03 4.8 552.1 108.7 210.1 213.8 1.7 68.9 12.0 834.8 1172.1 20,402 5.7 03-04 4.8 552.1 •108.7 228.4 213;6 1.7 68.9 12.0 834.8 119'0.4 21,311 5.6 04-05 3.6 602.0 116.5 247.5 21J.6 1.7 85.4 15.2 901.2 1287.7 22,220 5.6 ,05~06 ';3.6 651.9 128.3 266.9 213.8 1.7 85.4 15.2 951.1 1366.6 23,129 5.9 06.07 3.6 651.9 126.3 266.9 213..6 1.7 65;4 '15.2 951.1 1386.8 24.oJ8 5.6 07-06 3.6 701.8 136.1 307.6 213.6 1.7 85.4'15.2 1001'.0 1467.2 24,947 5.9 08-09 3.6 751.7 147.9 J28.8 213.8 1.7 85.4 15.2 1050.9 1548.1 25,856 6.0 09-1Cl 3.6 751.7 147.9 350.6 213.8 1.7 85.4 15.2 1050.9 1569.9 26,765 5.9 10-ll 3.6 '601.6 157.7 372.9 ,ilJ.8 1.7 101.9 18.4 1117.3'1671.6 27,674 6.0 TABLE 4.18.Anchorage-Cook Inlet Are~rligh Load Gro\lJth Scenario,Case 3,5%Inflation--_._---~_._-.-.New Hydroelectric Tr~nsmlsslon Total Cost Ne\~Goa 1 Fl n!d gr.ac1 Ey'Costs 5'y'stems Total Total Tota.1 Sys tern of .Existing Investiij;;-riT--oHfR--Coa,-lnvcstmen Col,I~1{-I nves COlen r-oH&R Investment System Con'svmptlon.Average Power ~Capacity_~2..U.L._Costs Cos_ts_Cos t's Cos ts Cos.ll..-..yosts _Cos'ts _Costs,$~U1KWII Cos ts I ¢/KWIl 7a~79 29.7'---.--- ---------0.7 '0:4 ---30.8 2680 1,1 79-80 39.1 --- --------- --- 0.7 0.4 ---40.2 3025 1.3 8e-81 45.7 --- --- .'----- --- 0.7 0.4 ---46.8 36!l8 1.3 81-B2 47.9 ---...-.'';:'---------0.7 0.5 ---49.1 '4352 1.1 82-83 59.5 69.8 1j;8 9.9 ------21.0 4.4 90.8 178.4 5015 3.6 83-84 63;6 106':4 '21.8'18.6 ------21.0 4.6 121.4 236.0 5679 4.2 84-85 68.7 144.9 30.5 29.9 --- --- 21.0 4.9 165.9 299.9 6342 4.7 85-86 69;9 '187.3 38.9 44,8 14.8 0,6 21.0 5.1 223.1 381.4 6849 5,6 66~67 69.8 187;3 40.8 61.5 14.8 0,6 47.7 8,1 249,8 430.6 4357 5.8 87-1l8 67:1 264.6 56.0 80.5 14.8 0.6 47.7 6.6 327.3 542.1 7864 6.9 03-69 60.6 264:8 60,9 93.4 14.6 0.6 47.7 9.0 32].3 551.6 &372 6,6 .,; 69~90 56,4 350.2 30.6 107.4'14.6 0.7 74,8 14.7 439.8 699.8 Bll79 7.9 w:90-91 52;5 350.2 84,3 125.4 14.8 0.7 74.6 15.4 439.8 718.6 9589 7.5 ....!91-92 '49.8 459.8 110:5 145.9 14.B 0.7 74.8 16.2 549.4 872.5 10,298 8.5c:I': 92'~93 47,4 459.8 115.9 168.5 14 .8 0.8 74,8 17.0 549.2 899.0 11,008 8.2 93-94 46.5 563,6 142.2 193.9 14.8 0.8 74.8 17.9 653,2 1054.5 n.717 9.0 ,94 ....95 48.5 563,6 149.3 171.3 335.2 2.2 74.8 18,8 973.6 1364.2 12,427 10.9 95-96 "43.6 563.6 156.6 2.0 1.2 335.2 2.3 74.8 19.7 973.6 1397.4 13.477 10:4 96-97 36.3 683.8 168,2 243.1 335.2 2.4 114.8 27.7 i133.8 1595.2 14.526 10.9 97-98 37.7 810.0 222.4 2135.6 335.2 2.5 n4.8 29.1 1260.0 1837.3 15,576 11.8',', 98-99 37~5 .010.0 233.5 260.9 464.9 4.2 114.8 30.5 1389.7 1964.3 16.625 11.8 99~2000 31.7.0'10:0 245.2 300.5 464.9 4.4 114.8 32,0 13139.7 20i 1.s 17.675 '~11.4 00-01 16,7 810.0 257.5 359.3 464.9 4.6 '114,8 33.6 1389.7 20G1.4 18,584 11.1 01-02 15.3 963.4 30b.5 413.1 464,9 4.8 114.a 35.3 1543.1 2312.1 19,493 11.9, 02 7 03 5.4 1124.5 347.1 476.1 464.9 5.1 114.8 37.1 1704.2 2575.0 20,402 12.6 03-04 5.5 1124.5 364.4 541.9 464.9 5.3 114.8 38.9 1704.2 2660.2 21.311 12.5 04"05 3.6 1302.1 417.5 616.1 464.9 5.6 16B.5 51.9 1935.5 3030.2 22.220 13.6 •~:J i .05-06 3.7 1480.6 474.9 696.2 464.9 5,9 166.5 54.5 ,2122.0 3%7.2 23,129 14.5 06-07 3.9 1488.6 4913.7 784.9 464.9 6.2 168.5 '57.2 2122;0 3472.9 24,038 14.'4 -', 07-08 4.0 1694.2 563.9 882.8 4G4.9 6.5 168.5,60.1 2327.6 3B44.9 24.947-,15.4 08-09 4.1 1910.1 634.5 990.5 464.9'6.8 168;S''63.1 2543.5 4238.4 25.856 16.4 09-10 4.2 1910.1 666.3 1108.7 464.9 7.1 163.5 66.2 2543.5 ~4396.0 26,765 16.4 10~11 4.4 2148.1 746.3 1237.8 464.9 7.5 222.0 81.5 2835.0 4912.5 27.674 .17 .7 . TABLE 4.19.Fairbanks-T~nana Valley Area,Low Growth Scenario,Case 1,0%Inflation New Hydroelectric Transmission Total Cost New Coal Fi~U Capacl!,y Costs Systems Total Total Total System of Existing tnvest~nr-OJ1Coa1-lnvestment oor 1nves tment 00ir Investment System Consumption,Average Power .l!!!L Capacity Costs C0i!l Costs --..fQ!ll.._~Costs ~Costs Costs,$HMKWH Costs,¢/KWH 7~-79 33.8 ---------0.3 0.2 ---34.3 778 4.4 79-80 36.6 ----.----0.3 0.2 ---31.1 823 4.5 80-81 39.4 ---:------0.3 0.2 ---39.9 855 4.7 81-82 41.6 ---._-0.3 0.2 ---42.1 881 4.1 82-83 35.6 '---._-6.9 0.3 0.2 ---43.1 919 4.7 83'-84 33.1 ------7.2 0.3 0.2 ---40.8 951 4.3 84-85 30.3 ----.-7.3 0.3 0.2 ---38.2 9a3 3.9 85-86 28.2 ------7.5 0.3 0.2 ---36.6 1015 3.6 86-87 26.1 ._----1.7 0.3 0.2 ---34.3 1047 3.3. 87-88 24.0 ---._-7.8 0.3 0.2 ---32.4 1019 3.0 88-'89 22.9 2.6 0.5 7.7 0.3 0.2 2.9 34.2 1111 3.1 119-90 23.1 21.5 4.3 10.0 3.5 1.0 25.0 63.4 1144 5.6 90-91 20.9 27.6 5.5 10.0 3.5 1.0 31.4 68.5 1116 5.8 W-91-92 2Ll 27.6 5.5 12.4 3.5 1.0 31.7 71.1 1208 5.9 'f 92-93 18.2 27.6 5.5 13.3 3.5 1.0 31.1 69.2 1240 5.6 93-94 18.4 27.6 5.5 14.I 3.5 1.0 31.1 70.1 1272 5.5 94-95 18.5 46.5 9.3 14.7 3.5 1.0 50.0 93.5 1305 7.1 95-96 ,16.9 51.2 10.2 15.4 3.5 1.0 54.7 98.2 1337 7.3 96·97 14.3 51.2 10.2 16.4 3.5 1.0 54.1 97.1 1369 1.1 97-98 3.8 70.1 14.0 111.9 3.5 1.0 73.6 111.2 1401 7.9, 9.8-99 3.8 89.0 17.8 19.6 .3.5 1.0 92.5 134.7 1433 9.4 99-2000 3.8 89.0 17.8 20.6 3.5 1.0 92.5 135.7 1466 9.2 00-01 3.8 89.0 17.8 20.9 3.5 1.0 92.5 136.0 1470 9.3 01-02 3.8 89.0 17.8 21.5 3.5 1.0 92.5 136.6 1474 9.3 02-03 1.5 89.0 17.8 21.9 3.5 1.0 92.5 134.7 1478 9.1 03-04 1.5 89.0 17.8 22.4 3.5 1.0 92.5 135.2 1482 9.1 04-05 1.5 89.0 17.8 22.9 3.5 1.0 92.5 135.7 1437 9.1 05-06 --,-89.0 17.8 23.5 3.5 1.0 92.5 134.8 1491 9.0 06-01 -"":-119.0 17.11 24.1 .3.5 1.0 .92.5 135.4 1495 9.0 07-08 ---89.0 17.8 24.6 3.5 1.0 92.5 135.9 1499 9.1 ·08-09 ..89.0 17.8 24.7 3.5 1.0 92.5 136.0 1503 9.0 09-10 ---89.0 17.8 25.'1 3.5 1.0 92.5 137.0 1501 9.1 10-11 .--89.0 17.11 26.2 3.5 1.0 92.5 137.5 1511 9.1 TABLE 4.20"Fa'irbanks;.Tanana Va 11 ey Area:;Low Growth Scenario.Case i.5%Inn ation TotalC~st New Hydroelectric Transmission New,Coal Fired capa~Costs Systems Total Total Total System of Exfstfng Investment---oM&R Coa Investment OM&R lnvestment bM&R Investment System Consumption.Average Power .-lliL CapacHY Costs Costs,'~Costs ~Costs £ill!.~!L-Costs,$-!!:I~Costs,t/KUH 78-79 30.5,---------0.2 0.2 ---30.9 778 4.0 79-80 33.9 ---------0.2 0.2 ---34.2 823 4.2 80·ln 37.4 ---------0.2 0.2 .....-37.8 855 4.4 81-82 40.7 ---------0.2 0.2 "'l--41.0 887 4.6 82-83 36.6 ------6.9 0.2 0.2 ---43.9 919 4.8, 83-84 35.6 ------7.2 0.2 0.2 ---43.2 951 4.5 84-85 33.5 ..--7.3 0.2 0.2 ........41.3 933 4.2 85-86 32.3 ------7.5 0,2 0.2 ..._-,~r ;l lm5 4.0 86-81 30.4 .---8.1 0.2 0.3 ..,---38.9 J047 3.7 87-68 .28.7 ------8.6 0.2 0.3 .~....-37.11 1079 3.5 88-89 27.9 4.2 0.7 e.!!0.2 (l.~·Li5 ~2.Ll Hn 3.8 89-90 29.3 3li.()7.0 12.1 4.5 1.1 4l.1 91.3 1144 1.9 90-9.1 28.4 48.(;7.4 12.7 4.5 Ul 52.5'102.8 )116 8.7 Co)i 91-92 30.i 48.0 7.'1 16.5 f".5 10l:.2....,1.9 52.5 120B 8.9 CICI'I,'92-93 26.7 4B.0 7.4 lB.7 U.2.0 52.5 IOI.f 1240 8.6 93-94 28.1 48.0 7.8 20.6 li.5 2.1 52.5 lHJ.B IV.?8.1 94-95 29.5 89~4 n.o 22.6 •C U 93.9 165.1 H05 12~7,~.~ 95-96 28.8 100.2 11.2 2b..9 4.5 2.3 i04.7 177.6 1337 13.3 96-97 27~1 100.2 18.0 27.9 4,5 2.4 104.1 160.4 1369 13.2 97~98 6.1 \48.i 28.5 33.5 4.5 2.5 152.6 222.9 1401 15.9 98-99 6.4 198,4 39.6 36.1 ~.fi 2.6 202.9 281.9 1433 20.1 99-2000 6.6 1913.4 41.6 40.1 4.5 2..1 202.9 294.0 1466 20.0 00-01 7.0 198;4 43.6 43.1 Ui 2.8 202.9 299.4 1470 20.4 01-02"'7.3 198.4 46.0 46.2 4.5 2.9 202.9 305.2 1474 20.7 02-03 2.7 198;4 48.4 49.6 4.5 i.o 202.9 306.5 1478 20.7 03-04 2.8 198.4 50.8 53.2 4.5 3.2 202.9 312.6 1482 2l.l 04-05 2.9 198.4 53.6 57.1 4.5 3.3 202:9 319.6 1487 21.5 "05-06 ---190.4 56.0 61.3 4.5 3.4 202.9 323.6 1491 21.7 06-07 ---198.1 "!l8 ..8 65.8 4.5 3.5 202.9 330.9 ,1495 22.1 07-08 ---198.4 60.0 70.6 4.5""3.7 202.9 337.0 1499 22.5 ,,08-09 _......198.4 .56 .•2 75.8 4.5 3.9 202.9 347.5 1503 23.1 09-10 ---198.4 68.0 81.3 4.5 4:2 202.9 356.4 1507 23.6 10-11 198.4 71.6 87.1 4.5 4.3 202.9 365.9 1511 24.2. m TABLE 4.21.Fairbanks-Tanana Valley Area,low Growth Scenario,Case 2,0%Inflation "'I.., '"CXl New Hydroelectric Transnllsston 0 Total Cost New Coal Fired CapacHY Costs Systems Total Total'Total System I CXl of Extstlng InvestmeiirOMlR ..Coal Inves tmentOMllC Investment OM&R,Investment System Consumptl on,Average Power 0 ~CapacHy ...J9llL-Costs Costs _Costs Costs Costs Costs 'Costs Costs , S MHKIIK Costs,¢/KWH I ",...78-79 33.8 ---------0.3 0.2 ---34.3 778 4.4 79-80 .36.6 ---------0;3 0.2 ---37.1 823 4.5 80-8\39.4 ---------0.3 0.2 ---39.9 855 4.7 81-82 41.6 ------.---0.3 0.2 ---42.1 887 4.7 82-83 35.6 ------.6.9 0.3 0.2 ---43.1 919 '4.7 83-84 33.1 ------7.2 0.3 0.2 40.8 951 4,3 84-85 30.3 ------7.3 0.3 0.2 ---38.2 983 3.9 85-86 28.2 ------7.5 0.3 0.2 ---36.6 1015 3.6 86-87 26.1 ------7.7 0.3 0.2 ---34.3 1047 3.3 87-88 24.0 ------7.8 0.3 0.2 ---32.4 .1079 3.0 88-89 22.9 2.6 0.5 7.7 0.3 0.2 2.9 34.2 1111 3.1 89-90 23.1 21.5 4.3 10.0 3.5 1.0 25.0 63.4 1144 5.6 90-91 20.9 27.6 5.5 10.0 3.5 1.0 31.4 68.5 1176 5.8w.-91-92 .21.1 27.6 '5.5 12.4 3.5 1.0 31.7 71.1 1208 5.9 -0 . 92-93 18.2 27.6 5.5 13.3 3.5 1.0 31.1 69.2 1240 5.6 93-94 .18.4 27.6 5.5 14.1 3~5 1.0 31.1 70.1 1272 5.5 94-95 18.5 27.6 5.5 14.7 18.8 2.0 46.4 87.2 1305 6.7 95-96 16.9 32.3 6.4 15.4 18.8 ,2.0 51.1 91.8 1337 6.9 96-97 14.3 51.2 10.2 16.4 18.8 2.0 70.0 113.1 1369 8.3 97-98 3.7 70.1 14.0 18.9 18.8 2.0 88.9 127.6 1401 9.1 98-99 3.7 70.1 14.0 19.6 18.8 2.0 88.9 128.4 1433 8.9 99-2000 3.7 70.1 14.0 20.6 18.0 2.0 80.9 129.3 1466 6.8 00-01 3.8 70.1 14.0 20.9 18.8 2.0 88.9 129.6 1470 6.8 01-02 3.8 70.1 14.0 21.5 18.8 2.0 68.9 130.2 1474 8.8 02-03 1.5 70.1 14.0 21.8 18.8 2.0 88.9 128.3 1478 8.7 03-04 1.5 70.1 14.0 22.4 18.8 2.0 88.9 126.8 1482 11.7 04-05 1,5 70.1 14.0 22.9 18.6 2.0 /l8.9 129.3 1487 8.7 05-06 ---70.1 14.0 23.5 '18.8 2.0 88.9 128.4 1491 8.6 06=07 ---89.0 17.8 24.0 18.8 2.0 107.8 151.7 1495 10.1 07-06 ---89.0 1/.8 24.5 18.8 2.0 107.8 152.2 1499 10.1 08-09 ---89.0 17.8 25.1 18.6 2.0 107.8 152.8 1503 10.1 09-10 ---89.0 17.8 25.7 18.8 2.0 107.8 153.3 1507 10.2 10-11 _.-69.0 17.6 26.2 18.8 2.0 107.8 153.9 1511 10.2 TABLE 4.22.Fairbanks-Tanana Valley Area,Low Growth Scenario,Case 2,5%Inflation New Hydroelectric Transmlss Ion Total Cost New Coal Fired Capacity Costs ~stems Total Total Total SystemofExistingIl\lIestniiiiif-oMiR Coal Inllestnlent OM&iC Ilyes tlnenr-1iMllr Inllestment Systelll Consumption,Allerage Power ~~~.!.L Costs Costs Costs Costs .Costs Costs Costs Costs Costs,$.MMKWlI Costs,¢/KWH 78-79 30.57 ---------0.2 0.2 ---30.9 718 4.0 79-80 33.9 ---------0.2 0.2 ---34.2 823 4.2 80-81 37.4 ---------0.2 0.2 ---37.8 1l5S 4.4 81-82 40.7 ---------0.2 0.2 ---41.0 887 4.6 82-83 :J6.6 ------6.9 0.2 0.2 ---43.9 919 4.8 83-84 35.6 ------7.2 0.2 0.2 ---43.2 951 4.5 84-85 33.5 ------7.3 0.2 0.2 ---41.3 983 4.2 83-86 32.3 ------7.5 0.2 0.2 ---40.3 1015 4.0 86-87 30.4 ------8.1 0.2 0.3 ---38.9 1047 3.7 87-88 28.7 ---:---8.6 0.2 0.3 ---37.8 1079 3.5 88-89 27.9 4.2 0.7 B.9 0.2 0.3 4.4 42.4 1111 3.8 89-90 29.3 36.6 7.0 12.1 4.5 1.7 41.1 91.3 1144 7.9 90-91 28.4 48.0'7.4 12.7 4.5 1.8 52.5 102.8 1176 8.7 Co)91-92 30.1 48.0·7.4 16.5 4.5 1.9 52.5 108.2 1208 8.9100), 0 92-93 . 26.7 48.0 7.4 '18.7 4=.5 2.0 52.5 107.0 1240 8.6 93-94 28.1 48.0 7.8 20.6 4.5 2.1 52.5 nO.8 1272'8.7 94-95 29.5 48.0 11.9 22.6 36.8 4.0 84.8 153.0 1305 11.7 95-96 28.8 58.8 14.6 24.9 36.8 4.2 95,6 168.1 1337 12.6 96-97 27.7 105.4 24.4 27.9 36.8 4.4 142.2 226.6 1369 16.5 97-98 6.1 153.3 35.2 33.5 36.8 4.6 190.1 269.6 1401 19.2 98-99 6.4 153.3 36.9 36.7 36.8 4.8 190.1 275.0 1433 19.2 99-2000 6.6 153.3 38.7 40.1 36.8 5..1 190.1 280.6 1466 19.1 00-01 7.0 153.3 40.7 43.0 36.8 5.3 190.1 286.2 1470 19.4 01-02 7.3'153.3 42.7 46.1:36.8 5.6 190.1 291.9 1474 19.8 02-03 2.7 153.3 44.9 49.6 36.8 5.9 1~0.1 293.2 1478 19.8 03-0·'2.8 153.3 47.1 53.2 36.8 6.2 190.1 299.4 1482 20.2 04-05 2.9 153.3 49.5 57.1 36.8 6.5 190.1 306.2 1487 20.6 05-06 ---153.3 51.9 61.3 36.8 6.8 190.1 310.1 1491 20.8 06-07 ---227.6 69.2 65.7 36.8 7.2 264.4;406.6 1495 27.2 07-08 ---227~6 72.6 70.5 36.8 7.5 264.4 415.1 1499 27.7 (,8-09 ---227.6 76.3 75.7 36.8 7.9 264.4 424.4 1503 28.2 09-10 ---227.6 eO.l '81.2 36.8 8.3 264.4 434.1 1507 28.8 10-11 ---227.6 84.1 87.1 36.8 8.7 264.4 443.3 1511 29.4 TABLE 4.23.Fairbanks-Tanana VaHey Area,Low Growth Scenario,Case 3,0%Inflation New Hydroelectric Transm1ss ion Total Cost New Coa 1 FIred Capaclli.._Cilsts Systems.Total Total Total System of ExIsting Investment OH&R Coal Investment OM&R Investment OM&R InvestllMlnt .System Consumption.Average Power ..!m-Capacity Costs Costs Costs Costs Costs Cos ts_.Cos ts Costs·Costs.$MMKWH Costs.t/KWH 78-79 33.8 ----.-----------0.3 0.2 --.-34.3 778 4.4 79-80 36.6 ------ ------0.3 0.2 ---37.1 823 4.5 ,80-81 39.4 --------- --- .-....0.3 0.2 ---39.9 855 4.7 81-82 41.6 ------ --- ------0.3 0.2 ---"42.1 887 4.7 82-83 35.6 ------6.9 ------0.3 0.2 ---43.1 919 .4.7 83-84 33.1 ------7.2 --- --- 0.3 0.2 ---4Q.8 951 4.3 84-85 30.3 ------7.3 ------0.3 0.2 ---38.2 983 3.9 85-86 28.2 ------7.5 ------0.3 0.2 ---36.6 1015 3.6 85-87 26.1 ------7.7 --_.---0.3 0.2 ---34.3 1047 3.3 81-88 24.0 ------7.8 ------0.3 0.2 ---32.4 1079 3.0 88-89 22.9 2,6 0.5 7.7 ------0.3 0.2 2.9 34.2 1III 3.1 89-90 23·1 21.5 4.3 10.0 --- --- 3.5 1.0 25.0 63.4 1144 5.6 .90-91 20.9 27.6 5.5 10.0 ------3.5 1.0 31.4 68.5 1176 5.8w:91-92 21.1 27.6 5.5 12.4 18.8 2.0 46.4 87,4 1208 7.2...:l -------13.3 18;8 2.0 46.4 85.5 124092-93 18.2 27.6 5.5 --- --- E.9 93-94 18.4 27,6 5.5 14.1 --- --- 18.8 2.0 46.4 86.4 1272 6.8 94-95 18.5 27.6 5.5 6.9 36.2 0.1 18.8 2.0 82.6 115.6 ·1305 8.8 95-96 16.9 32.3 6.4 6.5 36.2 0.1 18.8 2.0 82.6 119.2 1337 8.9 96-97 14.3 32.3 6.4 7.3 36.2 0.1 18.8 2.0 82.6 117.5 1369 8.6 97-98 3.8 32.3 6.4 9.6 36.2 0.1 18.8 2.0 82.6 109.2 H01 7.8 98-99 3.8 32.3 6.4 10.1 36.2 0.1 18.8 2.0 82.6 109.7 1433 7.6 99-2000 3.8 32.3 6.4 3.1 '18.3 .0.2 10.8 2.0 99.4 114.9 1466 7.8 00-01 3.8 32.3 6.4 ?7 48.3 0.2 18.0 2.0 99.4 114.5 1470 7.8 01-02 3.8 32.3 6.4 2.7 48.3 .0.2 18.8 2.0'99.4 114.5 1474 7.7 02-03 .1.5 32.3 6.4 2.4 48.3 0.2 18 ..11 2.0 99.4 111.9 1478 7.6 03-04 1.5 32.3 6.4 2.5 48.3 0.2 18.8 2.0 99.4 112.0 1482 7.6 04-05 1.5 32.3 6.4 2.6 48.3 0.2 18.8 2.,0 99.4 112.1 1487 7.5 05-06 ---32.3 6.4 2.7 48.3 0.2 18.8 2.0 99.4 110.7 1491 7.4 06-07 ---32.3 ·6.4 2.8 48 •.3 0.2 18.8 2.0 99:4 110.8 .1495 7.4 07-08 ---32.3 6.4 2.9 48.3 0.2 16.8 2.0 99.4 110.9 1499 7.4 06-09 ---32.3 6.4 3.1 48.3 0.2 18.8 2.0 99.4 111.1 1503 7.4 09-10 ---32.3 6.4 3.2 46.3 0.2 18.8 2.8 99.4 111.2 1507 7.4 10-11 ---32.3 6.4 3.4 46.3 0.2 18.8'2.0 99.4 111.4 1511 7.4 TABLE 4.24.Fairbanks-Tanana Valley Area,Low G'rowth Scenario,Case 3,'5%Infl ation New Itydroelectrlc Transmission Total Cost New Coal F~red Capaci~Costs Systems Total TotAl Total System of Existing Investment OM&R Coal Investment OM&R Investment OM&R Investment Sys,te",Consumption,Average Power ..!ill.-Capacity Costs_~Costs Costs Costs Cost_s_Costs Costs Costs,$MMKWH Costs.t/KWH 78-79 30.5 ---------------0.2 0.2 ---30.9 778 4.,0 7!!-80 ;33.9 --- -----------0.2 0.2 34.,2 823 '4.2 80-81 37.4 ---------------0.2 0.2 ---37./t '855 4.4 81-,82"40.7 ---------------0.2 0.2 41.0 887 4.6 82-8~.36.6 ------6.9 --- --- 0.2 0.2 ---43.9 919 4.8 83-84 35.6 ------7.2 ------0.2 0.2 ---43.2 9,51 4.5 84~85 33.5 --.---7.3 -----,-0.2 0.2 ---41.3 983 4.2 85-86 32.3 ------7.5 ---0.2 0.2 ---40.3 10,15 4.0 86.87 30.4 ------8.1 ------0.2'0.3 ---38.9 1047 3.7 1l7-88,28.7 ------6.6 ------0.2 0.3 ---n.6 1079 3.5 88-89 27.9 4.2,0.7 8.9 ------0.2 0.3 4.4 42.4 1111 3.8 8~-90 29.3 36.6 7.0 12.1 ------4.5 1.7 41.1 91.3 1144 7.9 Co) 90-91 28',1 48,.0"7.4 12.7 ------4.5 1.8 52.5 102.8 1176 8.7 to)91-,92 30.1 46.0 10.3 16.4 -~----32.,4 3.5 80.4 140.7 1208 11.6to) 92 0 93 26.7 48.0 10.8 16.7 --- --- 32.,4 3.6 80.4 140.3 1240 11.3 93-94 28.1 48.,0 11.4 20.6 ------32.4 3.6 80.4 144".3 1272 11.3 94-95 29.5 48.0 11.9 10.7 76.2 0.3 32.4 4.0 156.6 213.1 1305 16.3 95·96 28.8 58.8 14.6 10.5 76.2 0.,3 32.4 4.2 167.4 225.8 1337 .16.9 96-97 27 •.7 58.8 15.3 12.4 76.2 0.3 32.4 4.4 167.4 227.5 1369 16.6 ,'," 97-98 6.1 58.8 16.1 16.9 76.2 0.4 32.4 4.6 167..4 211.,5 1401 15.1 98-99 6.4 58.6 16.9 18.9 76.2 0.4 32.4 4.8 167.4 214.8 14~.3 15.0 99-2000 6.6 58.6 17 .7 5.9 100.6 0.8 32.4 5.,1 199.8 236.0 1466 16.1 00-01 7.0 50.6 11l.6 5,4 108.6 0.6 32.4 5.3 199.8 236.9 1470 16.1 01-02 7.3 58.8 19.6 5.8 100.6 0.9 32.4 5.6 199.8 239.0 1474 16.2 02-03 2.7 58.8 20.5 5.5 108.6 0.9 32.4 5.9 199.8 235.3 1478,15,,9 03-04 2.8 58.8 21.6 5.9 100.6 1.0 32.4 6.2 199.6 237.3 1462,16.0 04-05,2.9 58.8 22.6 6.5 100.6 1.0 32.4 6.5 199.8 239.3 140}16.1 05-06 ---5,0.8 23.7 7.1 100.6 1.1 32.4 6.0 199.8 238.5 ,1491 16.0 06-07 ---58.,6 24.9 7.8 108.6 1.1 32.4 7.2 199.'8 240.8 1495 '16.1 07-08 ---58.8 26.2 8.5 108.6 1.2 32.4 7.5 199.8 243.2 1499 16.2 08-09 ---58.8 27.5 9.3 108.6 1.2 32.4 7.9 199.8 245.7 1503 16.3 09-10 50.0 20.9 10.2 100.6 1.3 32.4 0.3 199.8 240.5 1507 16.5 10-11 --_.56.6 30.3 '11.1 100:6 1.4 32.4 8.'1 199.8 251.3 1511 16.6 TABLE 4.25.Fairbanks-Tanana Valley Area,Medium Growth Scenario,Case 1,0%Inflation New Hydroelectrtc Transm1ss10n Total Cost New Coal Fired Capac1ty Costs Systems Total Total Total System of Existing Investment OM&R Coal Investment OM&R Investment OM&R Investment System Consumption.Average Power -1£!L Cdpaclty Costs ~st~Costs Costs Costs Costs Costs Costs Costs I $Ml-1KWH Costs I ¢/KWIl 78"79 33,8 ---------0.3 0.2 ---34.2 '804 4.3 '79~80 36.6 ---------0.3 0,2 ---37.0 862 ~.3 80-81 39.4 ---------0;3 0.2 ---i9;8 916 4 ..3 81-82 41.6 ---------0.3 0.2 42.1 970 4;3 82-83 35.6 ------6.9 0.3 0.2 ---43.0 1024 4.2 83.84 33.1 ------7.2 0.3 0.2 ---40.8 1078 3.8 84-85 30,3 ---,._--7.3 0.3 0.2 ---38.1 1132 3.4 85-86 28.2 18.9 3.8 9.4 3.5 1.0 22.4 64.9 1193 5.4 86-87 26.1 18.9 3.8 10.9 3.5 1.0 22.4 64.2 1254 5.1 87-88 24.0·18.9 3.8 12.4 3.5 1.0 22.4 63.7 1315 4;8 88 c 89 22.9 21.5 4.3 13.3 3.5 1.0 25 •.0 66.6 1376 4.8 89-.90 23.1 40.4 8.1 14.5 .3 ..5 1.0 43.9 90.6 1437 6.3. 90-91 20.9 46.5 9.3 15.5 3.5 1.0 50.0 96.8 1505 6.4 w t-),91-92 21.1 46.5 9.3 16.8 3.5 1.0 50.0 98.2 1573 6.2 .W 92-93 18.2 '65.4 13.1 18.2 3.5 1.0 68.9 119.5 1641 7.3 93-94 18.4 65.4 13.1 19.5 3.5 1.0 68.9 120.9 1709 7.1 .94-95 18:5 65.4 13.1 20.7 3.5 1.0 68~9 122.2 1777 6.9 9.5-96 16.9 10.1 14.0 22.1 3.5 1.0 73.6 127.6 1859 6.9 96-.97 14.3 89.0 17.8 24.0 5.3 1.8 94.3 152.4 1941 7.8 91-98 3.7 107.9 21.6 27.3 5.3 1.8 113.2 167.8 2023 8.3 98-99 3.7 126.8 25.4 28.9 5.3 1.8 132.1 192.0 2105 9.1 99-2000 3.7 126.8 25.4 30.7 5.3 1.8 132.1 193.8 2187 8.9 00-01 ·3:8 126.8 25.4 31.8 5.3 1.8 132.1 194.9 2229 8.7 01-02 3.8 126.8 25.4 33.1 5.3 1.8 132.1 196.2 2270 8.6 02-03 1.5 126.8 25.4 34.2 5.3 1.8 132.1 195.0 2312 8.4 03-04 1.5 155.5 31.1 35.6 5.3 1.8 160.8 230.8 2353 9:8 04-05 --155.5 31.1 37.0 5.3 1.8 160.8 232.2 2395 9.7 05-06 ---155.5 31.1 38.4 5.3 1.8 160.8 232.1 2437 9.5 06-07 ---155.5 31.1 39.9 5.3 1.8 160.8 233.5 2478 9.4 07-08 ---155.5 31.1 41.4 5.3 1.8 160.8 235.1 2520 9.3 08-09 ---155.5 31.1 42.8 5.3 1.8 160.8 236.5 2561 9.2 09-10 ---155.5 J1.1 44.4 5.3 1.8 160.8 238.1 2603 9.1 10-11 ---155.5 31.1 45.9 5.3 1.8 160.8 239.6 2645 9.1 TABLE 4.26.Fairban~s-Tanana Valley Area.Medium Growth Scenario,Case 1,5%Inflation New Hydroelectric Transmfsslon Total Cost New Coal Fired Capacity Costs Systems Total Total Total System of Exlsttng Investment oMIR Coal Investment OHM Investment M&R .Inves tmlln t System Consumption.Average Power .1ill..-.J!I!.aflli-Costs f2lli..Costs Costs Costs .Cos ls Costs Costs Costs,$HMKWIl Cos ts,¢/KWIt 78-79 30.5 ---------0.2 0.2 ---30.9 804 3.8 79-80 33.9 --- --- ---0.2 0.2 ---34.2 862 4',(f 80-81 37.4 ---------0.2 0.2 ___i 37.8 916 4.1' 81-82 40.7 ---------0.2 0.2 ---41.0 970 4:2 82-83;36.6 ------6.9 0.2 0.2 --~43.9 1024 4.3 83-84 35.6 ------7.2 .0.2 0.2 ---43.2 1078 4.0 84·85 33.5 ------7.3 0.2 0.2 ---41.3 1132 3.6 85-86 .32.3 26.6 5.•3 9.4 4.4 1.2 31.0 79.2 1193 6.6 86-67 30.4 26.6 5.5 11.4 4.4 1.3 31.0 79.6 1254 6.3 87·88 28.7 26.6 5.8 13.6 4.4 1.4 31.0 80.5 1315 6.I BO-89 27.9 30.8 7.0 15.4 4.4 1.5 35.2:87.0 1376 6.3 89-90 29.3 63.2 13.6 17.6 4.4 1.5 67.6 129.7 1437 9.0 90-91 28.4 74.6 16.4 19.8 4.4 1.6 79.0 145;3 1505 9.6 Co) 91-92 30.1 74.6 16.4 22.3 4.4 1.7 79.0 149.5 1573 9.5~ oI:lo l.IJ 194.492-:lJ 26.7 112.1 23.8 25.5 4.4·116.5 1641 11.8 93-94.28.1 112.1 25.0 28.5 4.4 1.9 116;5 200.1 1709 11.7 94-95 29.5 112.I 26.2 31.0 4.4 2.0 U6.5 20,6.1 1777 11.6 95-96 28.8 122.9 29.7.35.8 4.4 2.2 127.3 223.8 1859 12.0 96-97 27.7 169.5 40.1 40.7 8.5 2.3 178.0 288.8 1941 14.9 97-98 6.1 217.4 51.7 48.5 8.5 2.4 225.9 33406 2023 16.!) 98-99 6.4 261.7 64.1 54.0 6.5 2.6 276.2 403.4 2105 19.2 99-2000 6.6 267.7 67.3 59.9 8.5 2.7 276.2 412.7 2187 18.9 00-01 7.0 267.7 70.7 65.3 0.5 2.8 276.2 422.0 2229 18.9 01-02 7.3 267.7 74.3 71.1 8.5 3.0 276.2 431.9 2270 19.0 02"03 2.7 267.7 77.9 77.6 0.5 3.2 276.2 437.6 2312 18.9 03~04 2.8 365.0 77.9 77.6 8.5 3.4 373.5 561.5 2353 23.9 04-05 2.9 36!l.0 102.1 92:1 8.5 3.6 373.5 .574~2 2395 24.0 05-06 --365.0 107.2 100.3 8.5 3.7 373.5 584.7 2437 24.0 06-07 ---365.0 112.6 109.1.8.5 3.8 373.5 599.0 2478 24.2 07-08 ---365.0 118.2 118.7 8.5 4.2 373.5 614.4 2520 24.4 08-09 ---365.0 124.1 129.1 8.5 4.2 373.5 630.9 2561 24.6 09-10 ---365.0 130.3 140.4 8.S 4.4 373.5 648;6 2603 24.9 10-11 ---365'.0 136.8 152.5 8.5 4.5 373.5 667.3 2645 25.2 _____..:....-.~..w~._.=-,~, TABLE 4.27.Fairbanks":Tanana Valley 'Area,Medium Growth Scenario,Case 2,0%Inflation New IIydroelectrlc Transmission Tot~l:Total Cost New Coal Fired Capacity Costs Systems Total Total System of Existing Investment OM&R 'Coar--Investment OM&R Investment OH&R Investment System Consumption.Average Power -1ttL.Capacity Costs Costs Costs Costs ~Costs Costs Costs Costs.$HMKWII Costs.¢/KWH 78-79 33.8 -----.---0.3,0.2 ---34.2 804 of.3 79-80 36.6 -.-------0.3 0.2 ---37.0 862 4.3 80-81 39.4 -------.-0.3 0.2 ---39;8 916 4.3 81-82 41.6 ---------0.3 0.2 ---42,1 970 4.3 82-83 35.6 _.----6.9 0.3 0.2 _.-43.0 1024 4.2 83-84 33.1 ._----7.2 0.3 0.2 ---40.8 1078 3.8 84-85 30.3 ---.--7.3 0.3 0.2 ---38.1 1132 3A 85-86,28.2 18.9 3.8 9.4 3.5 LO 22.4 64.9 1193 5.4 86-87 26.1 18.9 3.8 10.9 3.5 1.0 22.4 64.2 1254 5.1 87~8a 24.0 18.9 3.8 12.4 3.5 1.0 22.4 63.7 131S 4.8 88-89 22.9 21.5 4.3 13.3 3.5 LO 25.0 66.6 1376 4.8 89-90 23.1 21.5 4.3 14.5 18.8 2.0 40:3 84.2 1437 5.8 90-91 20.9 21.6 6.5 19.1 18.8 2:0 46.4 89.0 1605 5.9 c.J ~91-92 2Ll 27:6 5.5 15.2 18.8 2.0 46.4 90.2 1573 5.7- U'I 92-93 18.2 27.6 5.5 16.0 18.8 2.0 26.4 86.2 1641 5.4 93-94 13.4 27.6 5.5 16.9 16.6 2.0 46.4 89.2 1709 5.2 94-95 18.5 46.5 9.2 19.8 18.8 2.0 65.3 "114.9 1777 6.5 95-96 16.9 70.1 13.8 22.1 18.8 2.0 88.9 143.7 1859 '7.7 96-97 14.3 70.1 13.8 24.0 18.8 2.0 88.9 143.2 1941 7.4 97-911 3.76 89.0 17.5 27.3 18.8 2.0 107.8 158.5 2023 7.,8 98-99 3.7 107.9 21.2 28.9 18.8 2.0 126.7 '182.6 2105 8.7- 99-2000 3.7 107.9 21.2 30.7 18.8 2.0 126.7 184.5 2187 8.4 00-01 3.8 107.9 21.2 '31.8 18.8 2.0 126.7 185.5 2229 8;3 01-02 3.8 107.9 21.2 33.1 18.8 2.0 126.7 18&.8 2270 8.2 02-03 1.5 126.8 24.9 34.2 18.8 2.0 145.6 208.2 2312 9:0 03-0'4 1.5 126.8 24.9 35.6 16.8 2.0 145.6 209.6 2353 8.9 04-05 L5 126.8 24.9 37.0 18:0 2.0 145.6 211.0 2395 8.8 05"06 ---126.8 24.9 38.44 18.8 2.0 145.6 210.9,2437 8.6 06-07 ---126.8 24.9 39.8 18.8 2.0 145.6 212.3 2478 8.6 07-08 ---126.8 24.9 41.3 18.8 "2.0 145.6 213.8 2520 8.5 ,08-09 ----126.8 24.9 42.8 18.8 2.0 145.6 215.3 2561 8.4 09-10 ---126.8 24.9 44.3 18.8 2.0 145.6 216.9 2603 8.3 10-11 ---126.8 24.9 45.9 18.8 2.0 145.6 218.4 2645 8.2 TABLE/4.28.Fairbanks-Tanana Valley Area,Medium Gro~lth Scenario,Ca,se2,5%Inflation ,..I New Hydroelectric Transmission Total Cost New Coal Fired Capacity'Costs Systems Total Total Total System of £Kistlng Investment---nM&R Coal Investment OM&R Investment OM&R Investment System Consumption.Average Power ..!!!!.-Capactty Costs Costs Costs CostL_~osts Costs ~Costs Costs.S Ml1KWH Costs.¢/KWH 78-79 30.5 ---------0.2 0.2 ---30.9 '.804 3.8 79-80 33;9 ---------0.2 0.2 ---34.2 862 4;0 80-81 37.4 ---------0:2 0.2 ---37.8 916 4.1 81-82 40.7 ---------0.2 0.2 ---41.0 970 4.2 82-83 36.6 ------6.9 0,2 0.2 ---'43.9 1024 '4.3 B3-84 35.6 ------7.2 0.2 0.2 ---43.2 1078 4.0 84-85 33.5 ------7.3 0.2 0.2 ---41.3 1132 3.6 85-86 32.3 26.6 5:3 9.4 4.4 1.2 31.0 79.2 1193 6.6 86-87 30.4 26.6 5,5 11.4 4.4 1.3 31.0 79.6 1254 6.3 87-88 28.7 26.6 5.8 13.6 4.4 1.4 31.0 80.5 1315 6.1 88-89 27.9 30.8 7.0 15.4 4.4 1.5 35.2 87:0 ,1376 6.,3 89-90 29.3 30.9 7.3 17.6 29.7 3.2 60.6 118.1 1437 8.2 90-91 28.4 42.3 9.8 18.0 29.7 3.4 72.0 131.8 1505 8.7 c.,)91~92 30.1 42.3 10.3 20.2 29.7 3.5 72.0 136.1 1573 8.6loo) 0-92-93 26.7 42.3 10.8 22.4 29.7 3.7 72.0 135.7 1641 8.3 93-94 28.1 42.3 11.4 24.7 29.7 3~9 72.0 :140.1 1709 8.2 94-95 29.5 83.7 20.2 30.5 29.7 4.1 113.4 197 ;8 1777 11.1 95-96 28.8 137.9 31.9 35.8 29.7 4;3 167.6 268.5 1859 14~4 96:97 27.7 137.9 33.5 40.7 29.7 4.5 167.6 274.0 1941 14,1 97-98 6.1 185.8 44.7 48.5 29.7 4.7 215.5 319.5 2023 15.8 98-99 6.4 236.1 56.8 54.0 29.7 5;0 265.8 388;1 2105 18.4 99~2000 6.6 ,236.1 59.6 59.9 29.7 5.2 265.8 397:1 2187 18.2 00·01 7.0 236.1 62.6 65.3 29.7 5;5 265.8 406.2 2229 18.2 01-02 7.3 236.1 65.7 71.1 29.7 5.7 265.8 415.6 2270 18.3 02-03 2.7 291.2 81.1 77 .5 29.7 6.0 326.9 494.3 2312 21.4 03-04 2.8 297.2 85.2 84.4 29.7 6.3 326.9 505.7 2353 21.5 04-05 2:9 297.2 89.5 92.1 29.7 6.7 326.9 518.2 2395 21.6 05-06 ---297.2 93.9 100.2 29.7 7.0 326.9 528.1 2437 21.7 06-07 ---297.2 ,98.6 109.1 29.7 7.3 326.9 541.9 .2478 21.9 07-08 ---297.2 103.6 118.7 29.7 7.7 326.9 556.9 2520 22.1 013-09 ---297.2 108.7 129.1 29.7 8.1 326.9 572.8 2561 22.4 09-10 ---297.2 114.2 140.3 29.7 8.5 326.9 590.0 2603 22.7 10-11 ---297.2 119.9 l!il.5 29.7 8.9 326.9 608.2 2645 23.0 TABLE 4.29.Fairbanks-Tanana Valley Area,Medium Growth Scenario,Case 3,0%Inflation New HydroelectrIc TransmIssIon Total Cost New Coal fIred Capacity Costs Systems Total 'Total Total System of ExISting Investment OM&R Coal Investment OM&R Investment OM&R Investment System Consumption.Average Power J!!L Capacity Costs Costs Costs -f~f2llt Costs Costs Costs Costs.$MMKIIH Costs."t/KWH 78-79 33.8 ------ --- -_.----0.3 0.2 ---34.2 804 4.3 79-80 . 36.6 ------ --- ------0;3 0.2 ---;37.0 662 4.3 80~81 39.4 --------------~0.3 0.2 ---39.8 916 4.3 "81-82 41.6 --------- ------0.3 0.2 ---42.1 970 4.3 82-83 35.6 ------6.9 ------0.3 0.2 ---43.0 'Hl24 4.2 ,83-84 33.1 ------7.2 ------0.3 0.2 ---40.8 1078 3.8 84-85 30.3 ----_.•7.3 ------0.3 0.2 ---38.1 ni2 3.4 85-86 28.2 18.9 3.8 9.4 ------3.5 1.0 22.4 64.9 1193 5.4 86-87 26.1 18.9 3.8 10.9 ------3.5 1.0 22.4 64.2 1254 5.1 87-88 24.0 18.9 3.8 12.4 -_....---3.5 1:0 22.4 63.7 1315 4.8 88-89 22.9 21.5 4.3 13.3 ------3,5 1.0 25.0 66.6 1376 4.8 89-90 23~1 21.5 4.3 14.5 ------18.8 2.0 40.3 84.2 1437 5.8 Co)90-91 20.9 27.6 5.5 19.1 ------18.8 2;0 46.4 89.0 1505 5.9 to..)'.2;0""'l 91-92 21.1 27.6 5.5 15.2 --- --- 18.8 46.4 90.2 1573 5.7 '92-93 18,2 27;6 5;5 16.0 ------18;8 2.0 26.4 88.2 1641 5.4 93-94 13.4 27.6 5.5 16.9 ------18.8 2.0 46.4 89.2 1709 5.2 :14-95 18.5 '27.6 5.5 13.6 34.4 0.1 ,18.8 2.0 80.8 120.5 1777 6.8 95-96 '16;9 '32.3 6.4 13.9 34.4 0.1 18.8 2.0 85.5 124;8 1859 6.7 96-97 14.3 ,32.3 6.4 15.6 34.4 0.1 18.8 2;0 85.4 124.0 ,,1941 6.4 97-98 U 51.2 10.2 10:7 34.4 0.1 18.8 2.0 104.4 139.2 2023 6;9 98-99 3.7 51.2,10.2 13.0 45.9 0.2 18.8 2.0 115.9 145:1 2105 6.9 99-2000 3.7 51.2 10.2 13.6 45.9 0.2 '18.8 2.0 115.9 145.7 2187 6.7 00-01 3.8 51.2 10.2 14.4 45.9 0.2 18.8 2.0 115.9 146.5 2229 6.6 01-02 3.8 51.2 10.2 15.3 45.9 0.2 18.8 2.0 115.9 147.4 2270 6.5 02 e 03 1.5 70.1 14.0 16.1 45.9 0.2 18.8 2.0 134.8 168.6 2312 ,7.3 03-04 L5 70.1 14.0 17.1 45.9 0.2 18.8 2.0 134.8 169.6 2353 ·7.2 04-05 1.5 70.1 14.0 18.1 45.9 0.2 'lm8 2.0 134.8 170.6 2395 7.1 05·06 ---70.1 14.0 19.2 45.9 0.2 18.8 2.0 134.8 ,170.2 2437 7.0 06-07 ---70.1 14.0 20.2 45.9 0.2 18.8 2~0 134.8 171.2 2478 6.9 07-08 ---70.1 14.0 21.3 45.9 0.2 18.8 2.0 134.8 172.3 2520 6.8 08-09 ---70.1 14.0 22.4 45.9 0.2 10.8 2.0 134.8 173.4 2561 6.8 09-10 ---70.1 14.0 23.6 45.9 a.2 18.8 2.0 134.8 174.6 2603 6.7 10-11 ---70.1 14.0 24.7 45.9 0.2 18.8 2.0 134.8 175.7 2645 6.6 TABLE 4.30.fairbanks-Tanana Valley Area,Medium Growth Scenario,Case 3,d%Inflation .,.~.( New ~droe1ectric Trllns.,t.ss1on tau 1 ~ys tem I '.'Total tost New Coal Fired Capacity'Costs "Systems Total 'Total of Existtng InvestMent OM&R Coal Investment OM&R Investment OM&R Investment SysteM t-0nsUfllPtton.Average Power J.!!L.CapacHy Costs Costs Costs ~-Costs Costs ~Costs Cost.s.,$MHKWH Costs.(/KWH 18-79 30.5 --------- ------0;2 0.2 ---30;9 804 3.8 ! ~9~80 33.9 ------------.---0.2 0.2 ---34.2 /862 4:0 80-81 37.4 ---------------0.2 0.2 ---37.8 916 4,'1 81-82 40.7 ---------"--.---0.2 0.2 ---41.0 '970 4.2 82-83 36.6 ------6.9 ------0.2 0.2 ---43.9 1024 4;3 83-84 35.6 ------7.2 ------0.2 0.2 ---43:2 1078'4;0 84-85 33.5 ------7.3 ------0.2 0.2 ---"41.i 1132 3:6 85-86 32.3 26.6 5.3 9.4 ------4.4 1.2 31.0 79.2 11~3 6.6 86-87 30.4 26.6 5.5 .11.4 ------4.4 1.3 31.0 79.6 1254 6.3 87-88 28.7 26.6 6.8 13.6 ------4.4 1.4 .31.0 80.6 1315 6.1 88-89 27.9 30.8 7.0 15.4 ------4.4 1.5 35.2 87.0 1376 6.3 89-90 29.3 .30.9 7.3 17.6 ------29.7 3.2 60.6 118.1 1437 8.2 90-91 28.4 42.3'9.8 18.0 ------.29.7 3.4 72.0 .131.8 1505 8.7 Co)91-92 30.1 42.3 10.3 20.2 29.7 3.:5 72.0 136.1'1573 8.6I\,)------ GO . 92-93 26.7 42.3 10.8 22.4 ------29 •.7 3.7 72.0 135.7 1641 8.3 9]-94 28.1 42.3 11.4 24.7 ------29.7 3.9 72.0 140.1 1709 8.2 94-95 29.5 42.2 11.9 20.9 72.5 0.2 29.7 4.1 144.4 211.2 1777 11.8 95-96 28.8 53.0 14.7 22.6 72.5 0.3 29.7 4.3 155.2 225.9 1859 12.1 . 96~97 27.7 53.0 15.4 26.5 72.5 0.3 29.7 4.5 155.2 229.6 1941 11.8 97-98 6.15 100.9 25.7 33.2 72.5 0.3 29.7 4.7 203.1 273;1 2023 13.5 98-99 6.4 100.9 26.9 24.4 101.8 0.7 29.7 4.9 232.4 295.7 2105 14.0 99-2000 6.6 100.9 28.3 26.4 101.8 0.7 29.7 5.2 232.4 299.6 2187 13.7 00-01 7.0 100.9 29.7 29.5 101.8 0.8 29.7 5.5 232.4 305.1 2229 13.7 01-02 7.:,100.9 31.2 32.0 101.0 0.8 29.7 5.7 232.4 310.2 2270 13.7 02-03 2.7 162.0 44.9 36.6 101.8 .0.9 29.7 6.1 293.5 384.7 2312 16.6 03-04 2.8 162.0 47.1 40.6 101.8 0.9 29.7 6.4 293.5 391.3 2353 16.6 04-05 2.9 162.0 49.5 45.1 101.8 1.0 29.7 6.7 293.5 398.7 2395 16.6 05-06,---162.0 51.9 50.0 101.8 1.0 29.7 7.0 293.5'403.4 2437 16.6 06-07 ---162.0 54.6 55.3 101.8 1.1 29.7 7.3 293:5 411.A 2478 16.6 07-08 ---162.0 57.i 61.2 101.8 1.1 29.7 7.7 293.5 420.8 2520 16.7 08-09 ---162.0 60.2 67.5 101.8 1.2 29.7 8.7 293.5 430.5 2561 16.8 09-10 ---162.0,63.2 74.5 101.8 1.2 29.7 8.5 293.5 440.9 2603 16.9 10-11 ---162.0 66.4 82.1 101.8 1.3 29.7 8.9 293.5 452.2 2645 17 .1 TABLE 4.31.Fairbanks-Tanana Valley Area,High Growth Scenario,Case 1,0%Inflation New Hydroelectric TransRlhs i on Total Cost New Coal fired capac~Costs Systems Total Total Total System of Exhting InvestuH!nt OM&R Coa,Investment OM&R ..InvestmE:nt OMloR Investment Systelll Consumption.Average Power ..lliL .CapacHy Costs fQili.Costs Costs fQili.Costs Costs Costs Costs.S M."lKWH Costs,.(/KWH 78-79 38.8 ------0.3 0.2·---34.2 832 4.1 79-80,'36.6 -------.--0.3 0.2 37.0 903 4.1 80-8\39.4 ---------0.3 0.2 -,--39.8 931 4.1 81-82 41.7 ---------0.3 0.2 42.1 1059.4.0 82-83 35.7 ------6,9 0.3 0.2 ---43.0 1137 3.8 83-84 ,33.2 ------7.2 0.3 0.2 ---40.8 1215 3.4 8ol·85 30.4 13.9 3.8 9.1 3.5 1.0 22.4 66.7 1294 5.2 85-86 28.3 18.0 3.8 10.6 3;5 1.0 22.4 66.2 1396 4.7 86-87 26.1 37.8 7.6 12.1 3.5 1.0 41.3 88.2 1498 5.9 87-88 24.1 37.8 7.6 15.6 3.5 1.0 41.3 89.7 1600,5.6 88-89,22.9 40.4 8.1 17 .2 3.5 1.0 43.9 93.1 1702 5.5 89-90 23.1 59.3 11.9 18.7 3.5 1.0 62 •.8 117.6 1805 6.5 90-91 20,9 65.4 13.1 20.5 3.5 1.0 68.9 124;4 19 27 6.5 (.).91-92 21.1 65-.4 13.1 22.5 3.5 1.0 68.9 126.7 2049 6.2l-.) -0 9~-93 18.3 84.3 16.9 24.6 3.6 1.0 87.8 148.7 2172 6.8 93-94 18.4 84.3 16.9 26.8 3.5 1.0 87.8 150,9 2294 6.6 94-95 18.5 103.2 20.7 '28.8 5.3 1.8 108.5 178,.3 2417 7.4 95-96 16.9 107.9 21.6 31.5 5.3 1.8 113.2 85.0 2585 7.2 96.97 14.4 126.8 25.4 34.8 5.3 1.8 132.1 208.5 2754 7.6 97-98 3.8 155;5 31.1 39.5 5.3 1.8 160.8 237.0 2922 8'.1 98-99 3.8 184.2 36.8 42.4 5.3 1.8 189.5 274.4 3091 8.9 99-2000 3 •.8 184.2 36.8 45,8 5.3 1.8 189.5 286.7 3260 8.8 00-01 3.8 184.2 36.8 48.5 5.3 1.8 189.5 280.4 3396 8.3 184.2 " 0\-02 3.8 36.8 51.5 5.3 ·1.8 189.5 283.4 3531 ,8.0 02-03 1.5 184.2 36.8.54.3 5.3 1.8 189.5 263.9 3667 7.7 03-04 1.5 212.9 42.5 57.6 5.3 .1.8 218.2 m.6 3803 8.5 04-05 1.5 212.9 42.5 60.9 5.3 '1.8 218.2 324.9 3939 ..8.2 05-06 --212.9 42.5 61\.3 Ii.3 1.8 218.2 326.8 4074 8.0 06-07 ---212.9 42.5 67.7 5.3 ,L8 218.2 330.2·4210 7.8 07-08 ---241.6 48.2 71.3 7.1 2.6 248.7 370.8 4346 8.5 08-09 ---241.6 48.2 74.9 7.1 2.6 248.7 374.4 4481 8.4 09·10 ---241.6 48.2 78.7 7.1 2.6 248.7 378.2 4617 8.2 10-11 ---241.6 40.2 1l2.6 7.1 2.6 248.7 382.1 4753 8.0 TABLE 4.32.Fairbanks-Tanana Valley Area,High Growth Scenario,Case 1,5%Inflation NlOW llydroelectr1c Transmission Total Cost New Coal FIred capac~Costs ~tems'.Total Total Total System of Existing Investment ~&R'oa~lnves tment-OM&lr nvestme~Investment System Consumptf on.Average Power ~Capacity Costs Costs Costs Costs Costs Costs Costs Costs Costs.$I'oMKWH Cos ts I (/KWH -,-.- 78-79 30.6 ------ --- 0.2 0.2 '.'._--30.9 832 3.7 79-80 33.9 ---------0.2 0,2 _.-34·.2 903 3;8 80-81 37.5 ------ --- ·0.2 0.2 ---37.8 .081 3.9 8\~82 40.7 --0:----0.2 0.2 ---41.0 1059 3.9 82-83 36.7 ------6.9 0.2 0.2 "!"'--43..9 1137 3,9 83-64 35.6 ------7.2 :0.2 0.2 43.2 1215 3.6 84-85 33.6 25,4 5.0 9.1 4.4 1.2 29.6 76.8 1294 6.1 85-86 32.4 25.4 5.2 ,10.6 4.4 1.3 29.8 79.4 1396 5.7 86-87 30.4 43.3 11.0 12.7 4.4 1'.3 57.7 113.2 1496 7.6 87-88 28.7 53.3 11.5 17 .1 4.4 l,4 57.7 116;5 1600 .7,3 88'-89 .27.9 57.5 13.0 19.8 4.4 1.5 .61.9 '124.1 1702 7;3 89-90 29.4 89.9 20.1 22,7 4.4 1.6 94.3 166.1 1805 9.3 90-91 28.5 101.3 23.2 26.1 4;4 1.7 105.7 185.3 )927 9.6w91"92 30.\101.3 2049w24.3 29.9 4.4 1.7 105.7 191.7 9.4 0 92~93 26.8 138..8 32.9 34.6 4.4 1.8 143;2 239·.3 2172 11.0 93"94 28.1 pO.8 34.6 39.2 4.4 1.9 143.2 247.0 2294 10.8 ,94-95 29.6 180.2 44.5 44.3 8.4 3.6 160,6 310;7 2417 12.8 95-96 .28.8 191..0 40,9 51.0 6;4 3;8 199.4 331.9 2505.12 ..8 .96-97 25.7 237.6 57.9 56.9 8A 4.0 246,0 392.5 2754 14.2 97-98 6.2 310.2 75.2 70,0 ,8.4 4.3 316.6 474.3 '2922 16,2 98"99 .6.4 386.4 94.0 79.3 8.4 4.6 394;8 .579.2 3091 18.7 .99-2000 I 6.7 386.4 !l8.7 89.3 .8.4 4.8 394.8 594.3 3260 18.2 00-0\7.0 386.4 103.7 99.5 8.4 5.1 394.8 610.1 3396 17.9 0.1.-02 7.3 386.4 108.8 110.7 8.4 5.3 394.6 626,9 3531 17.7 02-03 2.7 386.4 114.3 123.1 8.4 5..6,394.8 640.5 3667 17 .5 03-04 2.8 483.7 139.3 136.6 8..4 5.8 492.1 77.6.6 3803 20.4 04-05 ,2,9 433.7 146.3 151.5 8.4 6.0 492.1 798.8 3939 20.3 ,tl5"06 -.-.•.433.7 153.6 \67.6 8•.4 6.3 492.\819.6 4074 20;1 06-07 4Q3.7 161.2 185.3 8.4 6.7 492;1 845:3 4210 20.1'.~ 07-08 ---602.0 192.8 .204.7 16.,S 10.2 618.5 1026.2 4346 23.6 Oli~09 ---602.0 202.5 225.9 16.5 10.5 618.5 1057.4 4431 23.6 09-10 ---602.0 212.6 248.9 16.5 10.9 618.5 1090.9 4617 23.6 10-11 --';'602.0 223.2 274,0 ,16.5 11.4 618.5 1127.1 4753 23.7 TABLE 4.33.Fairbanks-Tanana Valley Area,High Growth Scenario,Ca~~2,0%Inflation New Hydroelectric Transmissfon Total Cost ·New Coal Fired Capacity Costs Systems Total Total Total System of Exlsting InvesJment OM&R Coal Invi!stment OM&R Investment OM&R InVllS blCnt Systllm Cons unlp tl on.Averagll Power ..lli.L Capac1ty Cosh Costs Costs Costs Costs Costs Costs Costs Costs.S MlmlH Costs.t/KWH 78-79 33.8 ---,-...----0.3 0,2 ---34.2 832 4.1 79-80 36.6 ---------0.3 0.2 -.--37.0 903 4.1 80-81 39.4 ------_._-0.3 '0.2 ---39.8 9,81,4.1 81-82 41.7 -.-,----0.3 0.2 ---42.1 1059 4.0 82"83 35.7 ------6.9 C).3 0.2 ---43.0 11 37,3.8, 83-84 33.2,---_._-7.2 0.3 0,2 ---40.8 1215 3.4 8-1-85 30.4 13.9 3.8 9.1 3.5 1.0 22.4 66.7 1294 5.2 85-8§,28,.3 18,0 3.8 10.6 ~.5 1.0 22.4 66.2 1396 4.7 86-87 26,1 18.9,3.8 12,.1,18.8,2.0 37.7 81.8 1496 5.5 87-88 24.0 16.9 3.8 13.7 18,.8 2.0,37.7 81.3 1600'5.1 88·89 22.9 21.5 4.3 15.0 18.8 2.0 40.3 64.6 1702 5.0 69"90 23.1 21.5 4.3 15.4 18,.8 2.0 40.3 85.2 1805 4.7 90-91 20.9 27.6 5.5 14.1 18.8 2.0 46.4,89,0 1927 4.6w91·92 21.1 27.6 5.5 15.2,18,.8 2.0 46.4 90.2 2049 4.4w.... 92-n 18.2 6,5.4 13.1 20.2 .18.8 2.0 84.2 137.8 2172 '6.3. 93-94 18.4 84.3 16.9 26.3 18.8 2.0 103,.1 166,8 22~4 7•.3 94,-95 18.5 84.3 16.9 28.8 1a.8 2.0;103.1 169.4 2417 7.0 95-96 16,;9 107.9 21.6 31.5,20.6 2.8 128.5 201.3 2585 7.8 9,6-97 14,3 126.8 25.4 34.8 20.6 2.8 147.4 22~.8 2754,8,.2 97-98 3.7 155.5 3L1 39.5 20.6 2.8 176.1 253.4,2922 8.7 98·99 3.,7 155.5 31.1 42.4 20.6 2.8 176.1 256.3 3091 8.3 99-2000 3.7 155.5 31.1 45.8 20.6 2.8 176.1 259.7 3260 8.0 00"01 3.8 155.5 31.1 48.4 -20.6 2.8 176.1 262.3 3396 7.7 01-02 3.8 155.5 31.1 51.5 20.6 2.8 176.1 265.3 353'1 7.5 02-03;1.5 155.5 31.1 54.3 20.6 2.8,176.1 265.8 3667 7.2 03-04 l.5 184.2 36.8 57.5 20.6 2•.8 204.8 303.5 3803 8.0 04-05 1:5 212.9 42.5 60.El 20.6 2.8 233.5,341.2,3939 8.7 ". 05"06 212.9 42.5 64,,2 20.6 2.8 233.5 343.1 4074 8.4 06~07 ---212;9 42.5 67 ..7 20.6 2.8 233.5 346.5 ','4210 8.2 07-08 ---212.9 42.5 7L3 20.6 2.8 233.5 350.1 4346 8.1 20.6 .. ,08·09 ---212.9 42.5 74.9 2.8 233.5 353.7 4481 7.9 09-10 ---212.9 42.5 .18.7 20.6 2.8 233.~)57.5 4617 7.7 10-11 ---212.9 42.5 82.5 20.6 2.8 233.!361.4 4753 7.6 TABLE .4.34.fairbanks-Tanana Valley Area,High Growth Scenario,Case 2,5%Inflation New Hydroelectric TranHilssion Total Cost ~_Coal Fired Calli.ig Costs Systelll$Total Total Total System of Existing nves tIIIe/i'tliH&R 'Coa,--Investment OI't&R 'Investment l»l&R Inves tmel,t ,System Consumptf on.Average Power Yellr Capil~Costs..,:Costs:'.Cos ts _Costs_Costs Costs Costs Costs Costs.$MMKWH Cos ts.t/KWK~ .~30.6 ------,--",0.•2 0.2 ---30.9 .832 3.7 11\;11I Ja.g.-:""",.,.------0.2 0.2 ---34.2 903'3.•8 8lIlIIIliI 3'4..'5 ---------0,2 0.2 ---37.8 /981 3.9 JnIJ.82 ~'1:-_.------0.2 Q-.2 ---41.0 1059 3.9 82fl.83 ~.7 -.--......;).;;,,'i 6.9 0.2'0.2 ---43.9 1137 3,9 83-84 35.6 ------7.2 0.2 0.2 ---43.2 1215 3.6 84-85 33.6 25.4 5.0 9.1 4.4 1.2 29.8 78.8 1294 6.1 85-86 32.4 25.4 .5.2 .10.6 4.4 1.3 29.8 7904 1396 5.7 86-87 30 •.4 25 ..4 5.5 12.7 26.3 2.8 51.7 103.3 1498 6,9 87-88 28.7 25.4 5.8 14.9 26.3 2.9 51.7 104.1 1600 6.5 88-89 27.9 29.6 7.0 1,7.2 26.3 3.1 55.9 111.2 1702 6.5 89-90 .29.3 29.6 7.3 18 •.7 26.3 3.2 55.9 114.6 1805 6•.3 90-91 28.4 41.0 9.8 18.0 26.3 3.4 67.3 127.1 1927 6.6 Co)91-92 30.1 41.0 10.3 20.2 26.3 3.6 67.3 131.5 2049 6.4Co)' 1'00)1 92-93 ,26.7 116.0 25.6 28.3 .26.·3 3.7 142.3 226.,8 2172 10.4 93-94 28.1 155.4 34.7 33.4 ~6.3 3•.9 181.7 286.9 2294 12.5 94-95 2.9.5 155.4 36.4 ,.44.3 26.3 4.1 181.7 Z96.2 2417 IZ.3 95-96 28.8 209.6 48.9 51.0 30.4 6.0 240.0 374.8 2585 14.5 96-97 27.7 256.2 60.3 58.9 30.4 6.3 286.6 439.8 2754 16.0 97-98 6.1 3Z8.8 77.7 70.7 30.4 6,,6 359.2 519.7 2922 17.8 98-99 6.4 328.8 81.6 79.3 30.4 6.9 359.2 533.5 3091 17.3 99-2000 6.6 328.8 85.7 89.2 30.4 7.3 359.2 548.1 3260 16.8 00-01 7.0 328.8 89.9 99.5 30.4 7.7 359.2 563.3 3396 16.6 01-'02 7.3 328.8 94.5 110.6 30.4 8.1 359.2 579.7 3531 16.4 02-03 2.7 328.8 99.2 123.1 30.4 8.5 359.2 592.7 3667 16.2 03-04 2.8 426.1 123.4 136.6 30.4 8.9 456.5 .728.2 3803 19.2 04-05 2.9 528.3 149.9 151.5 30.4 9.3 558.7 672.3 3.939 22.1 05-06 ---528.3 157.4 167.6 30.4 9.8 550.7 893.5 4074 21.9 06-07 ---528.3 165.3 185.3 30.4 10.3 558.7 919.6 4210 21.8. 07-08 ---528.3 173.5 204.7 30.4 10.8 558.7 947.7 4346 21.8 08-09 ---528.3 182.2 225.8 30.4 11.4 558.7 978.1 4481 21.8 09-10 ---.520.3 191.3 248.9 30.4 11.9 558.7 1010.8 4617 21.9 10-11 ---528.3 200.9 274.0 30.4 12.5 558.7 1046.1 4753 22.0 TABLE 4.35.Fairbanks-Tanana Valley Area;High Growth Scenario~Case 3~0%Inflation New Ilyd,'oelectrlc Transmlsston Total Cost New Coal Fired Capacity.Costs Systems Total Total Total System of blstlng Inves'tmeiit(ii.i&R Coal Investment oMIR Investment OH&R Investment System Consumption,Average Power ..1!!L Capacity Costs C(.l&fs Costs Costs ~Costs Costs Costs Costs,$MMK't1H Costs,t!KWII 78-19 38.8 ---------------0.3 0.2 ---34.2 832 4.1 19-80 36.6 _.-------------0.3 0.2 ---31.0 903 4.1 80-8\39.4 --------- ------0.3 0.2 ---39.8 931 4.\ 8\-82 41.1 ------------0.3 0.2 ---42.1 1059 4.0 82-83 35.1 ------6.9 ------0.3 0.2 ---43.0 1131 .3.8 8l-84 33.2 ------1.2 ------0.3 0.2 ---40.8 1215 3.4. 3.584-85 30.4 13.9 3.8 9.1 ------1.0 22.4 66.1 1294 5.2 85-85 28.3 18.0 3.8 10.6 ------3.5 .1.0 22.4 66.2 1396 4.1 86-1l1 26.1 18.9 3.8 12.1 ........---18.8 2.0 31.7 81.8 1498 5.5 87-'88 24.0 18.9 3.8 13.1 ------18.8 2.0 31.7 81·i 1600'5.1 88-89 22.9 21.5 4:3 15.0 ------18.8 2.0 40.3 84.6 1702 5.0 89-90 23.1 21.5 4:3 15.4 ---'---18.8 2.0 40.3 85.2 1805 4.7 90-91 20.9 21.6 5.5 14.1 ------18.8 2.0 46.4 89.0 1921 4.6w91-92 21.1 27.6 18.8 2.0 2049w5.5 15 ..2 ------4[:.4 90.2 4.4w18.292-93 65.4 13.1 20.2 ------18.8 2.0 84.2 131.8 2172 6.3 93-94 18.4 84.3 16.9 26.3 --- --- 18.8 2.0 103.1 166.8 2294 1.3 94-95 18.5 84.3 16.9 22.6 29.0 0.1 18.8 2.0 132.1 192.2 2417 7.9 95-96 16.9 89.0 17.8 .'... 24.4 29.0 0.1 18.8 2.0 136.8 198.0.2585 7.7 96-97 14.4 89.0 .17.8 27.4 29.0 0.1 18.8 2.0 136.8 198.5 2754 7.2 97-98 3.8 89.0 17.8 32.0 29.0 0.1 111.8 ?O 136:~J 192.5 2922 6.6· 98-99 3.8 89.0 17.8 28.4 .38.7 0.2 20.6 .2.8 148.3 201.3 3091 6.5 99-2000 3.8 89.0 17.8 30.6 28.7 0.2 20.6 2.8 148.3 203.5 3260 6.2 00-01 3.8 107.9 21.6 33.0 38.7 0.2 20.6 2.8 167.2 228.6 3396 6.7 01-02 3.8 126.8 25.4 35.7 38.7 0.2 20.6 2.8 186.1 254.0 3531 7.2 02-03 1.5 126.8 25.4 38.3 30.7 0.2 20.6 2.8 186.1 254.3 3661 6.9 03-04 1.5 155.5 31.1 41.2 38.7 0.2 20.6 2.8 214.8 291.6 3003 7.7 04-05 1.5 155.5 31.1 45.6 38.7 0.2 20.6 2.8 214.8 296.0 3939 7.5 05-06 ---155.5 31.1 47.2 38.7 0.2 20.6 2.8 214.8 296.1 4074 7.3 06-07 ---155.5 31.1 50.3 38.7 0.2 20.6 2.8 214.8 299.2 4210,1.1 07-08 ---155.5 .31.1 53.5 30.7 0.2 20.6 2.8 214.8 302.4 4346 7.0 06-09 ---155.5 31.1 56.0 30.7 0.2 20.6 2;8 214.0 305.7 4481 6.8 09-10 .---184.2 36.8 60.2 38.7 0.2 20.6 2.8 243.5 343.5 4617 7.4 10-11 ---104.2 36.8 63.7 30.7 0.2 20.6 2.8 '243.5 347.0 4753 1.3 TABLE 4.36'.'fairbanks-Tanana Valley Area,High Growth Scenario,Case 3,5%Inflatiori' New Hydroelectric Transmission Total Cost Hew Coal fired Capacity Costs .----2.Y.:>'t.ems Total .Total Total System of Existing Investment OM&R Coal Investment oM&"ir Investment OM&R Investment System Consuntp 11 on ~Average Power Year CapacHy Costs ~Costs Costs £WI.Costs Costs Costs Costs.$MMKWH "Costs.tlKWII 78-79 30.6 ---------------0.2 0.2 ---30.9 832 3.7 79-80 33.9 --------------0.2 0.2 ---34.2 903 i.8 ';... 0.2 0.2 37.8 981 3.980-81 37.5 --- --- ------------ 81-82 40.7 ------ ---------0.2 .0.2 ---41.0 1059 3.9 82-83 36.7 ------6.9 -;..---0.2 0.2 ---43.9 1137 3.9, 35.683~84 ------7.2 ---.---0.2 0.2 -'--43.2 1215 3.6 84-85 33.6 25.4 5.0 9.1 ------4.4 1.2 29.8 78.8 1294 6.1 85-86 32.4 25.4 5.2 10.6 ------4.4 1.3 29.8 79.4 1396 5.7 86~87 30.4 25.4 5.5 12.7 ------26.3 2.8 51.7 103.3 1496 6.9 87~88 28.7 25.4 5.8 14.9 ------26.3 2.9 51.7 .104.1 1600 6.5 88-89 27.9 29.6 7.0 17.2 ------26.3 3.1 55.9 111.2 1702 6.5 89-90 29.3 29.6 7.3 18.7 ------26.3 3.2 55.9 114.6 1805 6.3 90~91 28.4 41.0 9.8 18.0 ------26.3 3.4 67.3 127.1 1927 6.6 ....~.91-92 30.1 41.0 10.3 20.2 ------26.3 3.6 67.3 131.5 2049 6.4 .::)~92-93 26.7 116.0 25.6 28.3 ---26.3 3.7 142.3 226.8 2172 10.4--- 93-94 28.1 155.4 34.7 38.4 --- --- 26.3 3.9 181.7 286.9 .2294 12.5 94-95 29.6 155.4 36.4 34.8 61.0 0.3 26.3 4.1 242.7 347.9 2417 14.4 ,;.., 28.895-96 166.2 40.3 39.5 61.0 0.3 26.3 4.3 253.5 366.7 2565 14.2 96-97 27.7 166.2 42.3 46.4 61.0 0.3 26.3 4.5 253.5 374.7 2754 13.6 97~98 6.2 166.2 44.5 56.7 61.0 0.3 26.3 4.7 253.5 365.9 2922 12.5 g~-gg 6.4 166.2 46.7 53.1 85.7 0.7 30.5 6.8 262.4 396.1 3091 12.8 99-2000 6.7 166.2 49.1 59.6 85.7 0.7 30.5 7.1 282.4 405.6 3260 12.4..',( 340.6 486.1 14.300-01 .7.0 224.4 62.4 67.8 85.7 0.0 30.5 7.5 3396 01~02 7.3 282.6 77.0 76.7 85.7 0.8 30.5 7.8 398.8 568.4 3531 16.1 02-03 2.7 262.6 80.9 86.7 85.7 0.8 30.5 8.2 398.8 578.1 3667 15.8 03-04 2.8 380.0 104.2 97.7 85.7 0.9 30.5 8.6 496.2 710.4 3803 18.7 04-05 2.9 380.0 109.5 113.6 85.7 0.9 30.5 9.1 496.2 732.2 3939 18.6 05-06 ---380.0 114.9 123.0 85.7 1.0 30.5 9.5 496.2 744.6 4074 18.3 06-07 ---3110.0 120.7 ·137.6 85.7 1.0 -30.5 10.0 .496.2 765.5 4210 18.2 07-08 ---380.0 126.7 ,153.7 q5,1 1.1 30;5 10.5 496.2 788.2 4346 18.1 . 08-09 ---360.0 133.0 171.3 65.7 1.1 30.5 11.0 496.2 812.6 4481 18.1 09-10 510.4 165.5 190.5 85.7 1.2 30.5 11.6 626.6 995.4 4617 21.6 10-11 510.4 173.7 .211.5 85,7 1.3 ':.'12.2 626.4 1025.3 475j 21.6---30.5 Allentriesinthetablesar¢.inmillionsofdollarsunlessnoted.Thefirstcolumnisthetc:talcO,stoftheexistingcapacity.Thisincludesinvestment,OM&R,andfuelcostsexceptcoalcostsafter1982-1983a·snotedbelow.Thiscolumnincludesthecostofthecombustionturbineunitsplannedthrough1984intheAnchoragearea.Thecostofexistingcapacityisassumedtobethesameforallloadgrowthscenariosandsystemconfigurations.Thisassumptioniswarrentedinthiscasefortworeasons.First,anexaminationoftheloadresourceanalysesforthealternativeloadgrowthscenariosandcasesrevealsrelativelylittlevariationintheplantutilizationfactorsamongthevariousscenariosand·cases.Second,the.costofoperatingtheexistingcapacityisarelativelysmallpartoftheoveralfsystemcri~tsinthe1990-2010timeperiodwhich.;'sofprimaryinterestinthisreport.Thenextthreecolumnspresentthecostsforthenewcoal-firedcapacity.Theinvestmentcostisthetotalofa11theindividua1plantinvestments.TheOM&RcostsarethesumofailtheOM&Rcostsoftheindividualplants.Entriesinthesetwocolumnsbeginthe-sameyea.rasthefirstcoal-firedplantcomesonline.Thecoalcostsincludethecoalcostsofthenewcoal-firedcapacity.Inaddition,thecoalcostsoftheexistingcapacityareincludedinthiscolumnafter1982-1983.(Itissubtractedoutoftheexistingcapacityafter1982-1983.)Thenexttwocolumnspresentthecostsforanynewhydroelectriccapacitythatisadded.Thesea~etheBr~dleyLakeproject,theWatanadamandtheDevilCanyondam.AspointedcutearliertheWatana,ar;tdDevilCanyoncostsaredividedbetweentheAnchorage-CookInletareaandth~Fairbanks-Tanq.naareainproportiontotheirrelativeenergyconsumptionin1994.Thetransmissionsystemcostsareshowninthenexttwocolumns.Thesecolumnscontainthe>lnvestmentandOM&Rcostsforallthetransmissionlinesrequired.Thetotalinvestmentcostcolumnrepresentsthesumofthenewcoal-firedcapacity·investmentcosts,thehYdroe1ectriccapacityinve.stment·costs,andthe,transmissionsy~teminvestmentcosFs.'Thetotalsy'stem'costisthesumofallthecosts(notincludingthenewinve'stmentcostcOlumn).::'Thetotalsystemconsumptionfiguresarethesameas.'~.335 theenergy'demandfo'recastspresentedinChapter3.'Theaveragecostofpowerinthetotalsystemcostsdividedbythetotalsystemconsumption.:'Thecostsofpowerforthe5%inflati~ncasesarepresentedinFigures4.5'...)through4.10.Whilethepowe'rcostsaredifferent(lower)forthe0%inflationcases.Therelationshipsamongthevariouscasesarethesameforbothinfla-tionrates.FortheAnchorage-CoQkInletloadcenterconstruct,ionoftheinterconnec-tion(Case2)reducesthecostofpowercomparedtothecasewithoutaninter..connection(Case1).Ingeneral,constructionoftheinterconnectionalsoreducesthetotalinvestmentcosts.FortheAnchorage-CookInletareainclusionoftheUpperSusitnaprojectintothesystem(Case3)generallyraisesthecost'ofpowe~aboveCa,ses1and2'duringthefirst2to4yearsaftertheWatana'Damcomesonline'butresultsinlowerpowercostsduringthe1996-2010timeperiod.ThisreductioninthecostofpowerissigniJica,ntinmostcase~.TheadditionoftheUpperSusitriaprojectappearstoslightlyincreasethetotalinvestmentcostsfortheAnchorage-CookInletareaalthoughthisvariesfromyeartoyear..FortheFairbanks-Tanana'Va11eyloa~centerconstructionoftheinter-connection(Case2)againgenerallyreducesthecostofpowercomparedtothecasewithoutaninterconnection(Case1).Ingeneral,constructionoftheinterconnectionalsoreducesthetotalinvestmentcosts.FortheFairbanks-TananaValleyloadcenterinclusion,oftheUpper,Susitnaproject(Case3)genera11yrarisesthecostofpoweraooveCase2for·about2yearsaftertheWatanaOamcoinesonlinebut,aswiththeAnchorage-CookInletarea~resultsin-lowerpowercostsduringthe1996-2010timeperiod.TheadditionoftheUpperSusitnaprojectappearsto;slight1ylowerthetotalinvestmentcost.In'someofthe'scenariosit'is'difficulttodeterminewhichcaseresultsinthelowesttotalinvestmentorthelowestcostofpower:overtheentire1978-2010ti.meperiodbylooking,atthet~blesorfigur~s.Onemethodofcom-paringinvestmentorcostoveraperiodqfyearsistoco~putethepre~entworth.Inequationform:336 ----~CASE1---CASE2.••••••••.•.•CASE3..~"'....3028262422.c:203:.:.::18-II)-c:Q)u16-V)~V)014ue:::UJ123:00..108642198519901995200020052010FIGURE4.5.PowerCostsforAnchorageLowLoad,GrowthScenario337 CASE1---CASE2.-CASE3/..............••..'..'..-.....'..'.'.'/..........".-elJ"f..',••.:;e...•/...../,/.."4!'3028262422,.!::20s:~-18V').-c(J)u16-<.n~<.n014u0:::L.U12s:0Cl-IO864219851990199520002005·2010FIGURE4.7.PowerCostsforAnchorageHighLoadGrowthScenario339 ......./..:.-/-.:e.•.jI·..fI···i,)!//~_••.!~199019952000--CASE1---CASE2............CASE3PowerCostsforFairbanksLowLoadGrowthScenario340 --,--'---'----CASE1---CASE2•••••••.•.-CASE3.............:.····...............:3028262422.c.20s:~-18In,-c:Q)u-16V')I--V')014Co.)e:::u.Js:120Ja..10/I8~-"""_I642198519901995200020052010FIGURE4.9.PowerCostsforFairbankst4ediumLoadGrO\'/thScenario341 --CASE1---CASE2•••••..•••••CASE3.-.--;:::···.If············1Ii"t:--....,::...:......•......:'3028262422.c.20s~18-In...-CQ)~16V')I--V')014u0::::u.J12s0C-108642198519901995200020052010FIGURE4.10.PowerCostsforFairbanksHighLoadGrowthScenario342 where:PW=nlLAPC.*-~i=n1(1+r)iPW=PresentworthofthecostofpowerAPei=Averagepowercostinyear.ir=Discountraten=Totalnumberofyears.Usingthisformulathetotalinvestmentcostandtheaveragepowercostoveraperiodofyearscanbemoreeasilycompared:A7%discountrateisusedinthes"eanalyses.Theresultsforeachoftheloadgrowthscenariosforbothoftheloadcentersarebrieflydiscussedbelow.Anchorage-CookInlet-LowLoadGrowthThepresentworthof'thetotalinvestmentandthepresentworthofaveragepowercostsareshownbelow.ReferenceP.W.TotalP.W.AverageCaseTableNo.Investment($)PowerCosts(<i:/kWh)122329782422517636250470Case3resultsinthelowestcostofpowerfollowedbyCase2andCase1.Case2givesthelowestoverallinvestmentcostswhileCase3resultsinthehighest-investmentcosts.343 Anchorage-CookInlet-MediumLoadGrowthCase123ReferenceTableNo.81012P.W.TotalInvestment($1392039303920P.W.AveragePowerCosts(t/kWh)838377Thepresentworthofthetotalinvestmentisalmostidenticalforallthreecases..Thepresentwortho~thecostofpoweristhesameforCases1and2,.whilethepresentworthpowercostforCase3islowest.Anchorage-CookInlet-HighLoadGrowthCase123ReferenceTableNo.141618P.W.TotalInvestment($17053683t7084P.W.AveragePowerCosts(¢jkWh)868583AgainCase3resultsinthel'owe'stpresentworthfor'thecost'bfpower.ForthisscenarioCase2resultsinthelowestpresentworthinvestmentwithCases1and3slightly,higher.Fairbanks-TananaValley-LowLoa.dGrowthCase123ReferenceTableNo.202224p.w.TotalInvestment($)666699742P.W..AveragePowerCosts(t/kWh)110113104Case3givesthelowestcostofpowerwhileCase1givesthelowestinvestmentcost.Case3resultsinthehighestpresentworthinvestmentcost..344 Fairbanks-TananaValley~MediumLoadGrowthReferenceP.W.TotalP.W.AverageCaseTableNo.Investment,,($)PowerCosts(.¢!kWh)12611281172281042111330~7099AgainCase3resultsinthelowestpresentworthcostofpower.Inthisscenariohowever,Case3alsogivesthelowestpresentworthtotalinvestmentcosts'.Fairbanks-TananaValley-HighLoadGrowthReferenceP.W.TotalP.W.AverageCaseTableNo.Investment($)PowerCosts(t/kWh)132164211523415871103361527103AgainCase3resultsinthelowestpresentworthcostofpowerandthelowestpresentworthtotalinvestment.345 REFERENCES-CHAPTER41.Taylor,G.A.,ManagerialandEngineeringEconomy,D.vanNostrand'Company,Inc.,Princeton,NJ,1964.346 ·.-,....r.=1\f'-nR~:"L.F..EDEMl:!ENERGYREGULATORYCOMMiSSiONt~,,;,i;:,"-u;::,.\.1!..~;-:2(;....,j-".;c.;";:)"C.jREGIONALOFFICE555BATTERYSTREET.ROOM415-",..,3'"'",'C,tli.D-;1i;:i..:jSANFRANCISCO.CA941I 1:.)i.jttt'.I\U....;'·"'-"~"'."'",""".f_.__".March6,1979Mr.RobertJ.CrossAdministratorDepartmentofEnergyAlaskaPowerAdministrationP.O.Box50Juneau,Alaska99802DearMr.Cross:ThiswillrespondtoyourletterofFebruary2,1979,requestingourinformalreviewandcommentsonyourUpperSusitnaProjectPowerMarketDraf.tReport;Althoughwewereunabletomakeanin-depthreviewofthedraftreportduetotimeandstaffinglimitations,wedowishtomakethefoLloWfn,gcomments:Page9,secondparagraph,thirdsentence.FERCestimatedcostsareasofJul1,1978,notOctober1978asstated.Page95,secc~dparagraph,lastsentence.TheSanFranciscoRegionalOfficeofFERCdidincludecostadjustmentsforAlaskaconditionsinitspowervaluestudyasitroutinelydoesforallstudiesinAlaska.Page95,lastparagraph,lastsentence.TheinvestmentcostestimatesoftheFairbanksplantare$1475/kW(@5.75%financing)and$1510/kW(@6.875%financing).CostestimatesoftheAnchorage-Kenaiareaplantare$1240/kW(@7.94%financing)and$1220/kW(@6.875%financing).Page96,OilandNaturalGas.OurthoughtsonthissubjectwerestatedinourOctober31,1978,le~tertotheDistrictEngineer,AlaskaDistrict,CorpsofEngineers.Inthatletterwestatedthatoil-firedcombinedcycleandregenerativecombustionturbineplantsweresignificantlylesscostlythanalternativecoal-firedplantsfortheUpperSusitnaRiverBasin.Wearenotabletostate,however, whichalternativeisthemoreprobablesource.ThedeterminingfactorswouldbetheAlaskafuelsituationandtheinterpretationoftheFuelUseAct.347 'Whj:'le'the''FuetUseActprohibitstheuseofoilornaturalgasaslprima'rY,,'fuelforelectricalgeneration,theDepartmentofEnergy,;Et61lQuif8"Reg-u'latorY"Admfnlstration(ERA),ispromulgatingregulationswhieif'td.llprovideforvariousexemptions•..The'regulationsareex-p~bt~dtobe'~i$suedinMay.WesuggestthatyoucoptactERAonthismat~¢r..Page'105,item5.Theretirementscheduleforcombustionturbineis,sta~ed._tobe20years.MoststudiesintheContinentalUnitedStatesuse30years.Pages159and160,AssessmentofFeasibility.AcostestimateofCopperValleyElectricAssociation'spurchaseofUpperSusitnapowerwouldbeusefultothisdiscussion.Appendix,page21,3.2.4,TransmissionLosses.The1.5%forenergylossappearstobelowoWeappreciatetheopportunitytoreviewandcommentonyourdraftreport..Sincerely,~~"'-<.~.:u[~~e~le~tReg10nalEng1neer;.348 .7,-",February27,1979Mr.RobertCrossDepartmentofEnergyAlaskaPowerAdministrationP.O~Box50Juneau,AK99802DearMr.Cross:r.""~CE--f\./r.;-D.0-lV',..:~.,,;..,{:):.:\11I"';;;'ka.. _.....It,..Ij',-\JC;....)'.•IIJ.""'.'-"r...tJ.~anelle...'~i";,.{1Q'•·19...-::...........'oJ-vv'.!...~~,!:1.~,"',,_......,_.-~.__'PacificNorthwestLaboratories';'l'~'~,-ii.';i·i:..J~:-I{(Jl..'..',"".~\:"p"'''-R-''''POB999"!-f-i\Jf\,"';Lit't"L:AOr,t..ox. ,'Richland,Washington99352Telephone.(5091942-4745Telex32·6345Thankyoufortheopportunitytocomment,onyourDraftPowerMarketAnalysis.BothWardSwiftandIreaditoverandcameupwithonlyafewminorcomments.Theprimaryfocusofourreviewwastheconsistencybetweenthebodyofthereportandourbackgroundanalys~spresentedinAppendix3.~1.Page4,2ndparagraph-Thealternativeon~1.inedatesof1990, 1992,and1994seemtorefertotheinferconQ~ction<;)n-linedatesforhigh,medium,andlowloadgrowthcasesresp~ctively.Ibeliev~·thosedatesshouldbe1986,1989,and1991..Thiswouldbeconsi,stentwiththedatesgiveninthelastlinetinpage109.2.Page8,~bleatbottom-ItappearsthatthecostsofpowerlistedforCaseshouldbethesamenumberslistedfortheCase1ofthecombinedSyst~linthetableatthetopofpagelll.(i.e.,thecostsofpowershouldbe6.6,6.9,and7.5¢/KWhratherthan7.0,7.0and6.6¢/KWhforthehigh,medium,andlowloadgrowthsrespectively).3.P-age17,Installednameplatecapacities-Aspointedoutonpage19thetotalsdifferfromthoseusedbyusinAppendix3.Mostofthedifferencesarerelativelyminor.TheonlymajordifferenceseemstobethecapacitylistedfortheChugachElectricAssociation.Asyouindicatethesedifferencesareduetorecentchangesinplanstoinstallnewcapacity.Thedifferencewouldhaveaminorimpactonthe1978through1985resultsandpracticallynoimpactontheresultsafter1985.349. 4.Pages52,59,80,andAppendix3page8 -AnnualLoad.Factors-Onpage42andAppendix3,pa·ge8,bothreportsaregenerallyinagree-mentthattheannualloadfactorispresentlybetween46-52%.InAppendix3wegoontosaythatitappearstheannualloadfactorwilJremaininthe50-52%rangeduringthetimehorizonofthere-port.Onpage80itisstatedthatforplanningpurposesitisassumedthatthe-annualsystemloadfactorwillbeintherangeof55-60%bythelatterpartofthecentury.Iftheloadfactorisdefinedas:ALF-GEN-cAp*8.760where:ALF=Annualloadfactor(fraction)GEN=Generation(MW)CAP=Capacity(GWH)andusedatafortheyear2000,.lowloadgrowthaspresentedonpage59wecomputeanannualloadfactorof51%.i .e.6424ALF=1448*8.760=.51Thisislowerthanthe55-60%mentionedonpage80.5.Page95,HealyIIplantcosts-Itwouldbegoodtopoil')touttha~theGVEAestimate.isprobablyintermsof1985$...6.Page101-102,Conclusions- IthinkyoursummaryofthealternativesavailabletoAlaskaisgood.350 1.CoverSheet,Appendix3 -EnclosedaredifferentcoverpagesforourreportpresentedinAppendix3andtheAppendicestoourreport.Pleasereplacethecoverpagesyoupresentlyhave.Thankyoufortheopportunitytocommentonthereport.Sincerely,~cJi1(;heoM&JJ.JayJacobsenEnergyAssessmentUnitEnergySystemsDepartmentJJJ:twEnclosures351 NPAEN-PL-RDEP*R~~~~~PFTHEARMYALA~~A"'?!,$'f1Rl}:rf.~e;p.~PSOFENGINEERSu,-,.;'-...'-,'P:cF"a>6k'7002.riG'.~.~~N~foI0R~GE'~l...f'?;KA99510,.;i...,1.011\'-J,;;";~.......J::.c~·....-r--.INIT·.o~I.E;19MAR1979Mr.RobertJ.CrossAdministratorAlaskaPowerAdministrationP.O.Box50'Juneau,Alaska99802DearMr.Cross:IamwritingtoadviseyouofactionstakeninresponsetoyourcommentsonthedraftSusitnaSupplementalFeasibilityReportandalsotocommentonyourdraftPowerMarketAnalysis.Yourletterof26January1979transmittingyourcommentsonourdraftreporttrrivedduringthefinalreportprinting.AnydelayatthatpointVi'ldhavecausedustomissourdeadlinewhichIwasunwi.llingtoperml~exceptunderextremecircumstances.Ontheverbalassurancefromyourstaffthattherewasnothingofsuchgravitythattheinteg-rityofthereportwouldbejeopardized,thedecisionwasmadetopro-ceedwiththeprintingasscheduled.Iregretthatyourwrittencommentsdidnotarrivesooner,becausethereportwouldhavebenefitedfromtheirincorporation.IamespeciallysensitivetoyourcontentionthatinsufficientcreditwasgivenwhereAPAmaterialswereused.Inthefuture,mystaffwillbemorecarefulinthisregard.OurreviewofyourexcellentdraftPowerMarketAnalysishasresultedinonlyonecomment.Onpage4younotethatthemorecostlygravitystructureforDevilCanyonisIIcurrentlyproposedIIbytheCorps.ThisisinaccurateinthatthegravitystructurewaspresentedtoinsurethatestimatedcostsweresufficienttocoverarangeofpossiblefoundationconditionsattheDevilCanyonsite.Withappropriatewordchangestocorrectthismatter,wefindnothingelserequiringalteration.SincetheMainReportandAppendixPart1arealreadyinWashington,pleasetransmit20copiesofthefinalAppendixPart2toHQDA(DAEN-CWP-W),352 WashingtonD.C.20314;2copiestoDivisionEngineer,NorthPacificCorpsofEngineers,210CustomHouse,Portland,Oregon97209,ATTN;NPDPL;andtheremaining138copiestotheAlaskaDistrict,AnN:NPAEN-US.Ifyouhaveanyquestions,Mr.ChuckBickleyat(907)752-5135canpro-videassistance.~ince~S'<Q.JL.~LE.T.stfrfti?'~---LtColonel,CorpsofEngineersActingDistrictEngineer353 DEPARTMENTOFTHEARMYALASKADISTRICr.CORPSOFENGINEERSP.O.80X7002ANCHORAGE.....LASI'J.<:>!).:REPLYTOATTENTIONOF,~,!PAErl-PL-R19MAR19i9Mr.RobertJ.CrossAdministratorAlaskaPc~erAdministrationP.O.Box50Juneau~Alaska99802IamwritingtoadviseyouofactionstakeninresponsetoyourcommentsonthedraftSusitnaSupplementalFeasibilityReportandalsotocommentonyourdraftPowerMarketAnalysis.Yourle"::terof26January1979transmittingyourcOll1llentsonourdraftrepc"'tj~rivedduringthefinalreportprinting.AnydelayatthatpointwDuldhavecausedustomissourdeadlinewhichIwasunwillingtoper,itexceptunderextremecircumstances.Ontheverbalassurancefromy,.staffthatthere\vasnothingofsuchgravitythattheinteg-rityof~.lereportwouldbejeopardized,thedecisionwasmadetopro-ceedwith':'1;::"'intingasscheduled.Iregretthatyourwrittencommentsdidnotarrivesooner,becausethereportwouldhavebenefitedfromtheirincorporation.IamespeciallysensitivetoyourcontentionthatinsufficientcreditwasgivenwhereAPAmaterialswereused.Inthefuture~mystaffwillbemorecareful1nthisregard.OUrreviewofyourexcellentdraftPowerMarketAnalysishasresultedinonlyonecomment.Onpage4younotethatthemorecostlygravitystructureforDevilCanyonis"currentlyproposedllbytheCorps.Thisisinaccurate1nthatthegravitystructurewaspresentedtoinsurethatestimatedcostsweresufficienttocoverarangeofpossiblefoundationconditionsattheDevilCanyonsite.HUha'ppropr1atewordchangestocorrectthismatter,wefindnothingelserequ.iringalteration.SincetheMainReportandAppendixPart1arealreadyinWashingtontransmit20copiesofthefinalAppendixPart2toHQDA(DAEN-a~p-~J354 UashingtonD.C.20314;2copiestoDivision£nginee~,710rthPacificCorpsofEngineers,210CustomHouse,Portland,Oregon97209,ATTN;N?OPL;andtheremaining133copiestothe~laskaDistrict,ATTN:NPt'\EN-US.Ifyouhaveanyquestions,Mr.ChUCKBickleyat(907)752-5135canpro-videassistance.Sincerelyyours.~{LTC.VemelleT.SmithVERNELlET.SMITHItColonel,CorpsofEngineersActingD1strictEngineer355 March1,1979RobertJ.Cross,AdministratorDepartmentofEnergyAlaskaPowerAdministrationP.o.Box50Juneau,Alaska99802DearMr.Cross:-ThisletterresporjstoyourletterofFebruary2,1979,whichrequestedinformalcommentsonthedraftPowerMarketAnalysesoftheUpperSusitnaRiverProject.Mr.StahrisoutoftownandIamwritingwithoutknowledgeofhispersonalopinionandcomments.TheMunicipalLightandPower'sstaffcommentsappearinthetwoattachedmemorandums.Mr.Stahrmayforwardmorecommentsuponhisreturn.Thankyouf~rtheopportunitytoreviewthedraft.Ifyouhaveanyquestior.sorwantmorecommentspleasedonothesitatetocon-tactus.Verytruly'lrs,~~~.-MaxFosterRevenueRequirementsSupervisorMF:bwEnclosure356 ·0.~"'"'.....1''1''-D~1r~1r[i,~m:;~~~~[\~OFFIC~·,;~F·I:i'.~~;7GO"~ERNOR,.,'.....r-•II~;-."t-~,',__••I'.<J'1.OIVISIONOFPOLICYOEVELOPMENTANOPLANNINGMaI:ch23,197::.:Mr.JimCheathamU.$.DepartmentofEnergyAlaskaPowerAdministrationP.O.BoX;50Juneau,AK99801JAYS.HAMMONDGOVERNOR--.,---,-......POUCHAO-JUNEAU99811INITtJnll:PHONE46~'3577..S~bject:PowerMarketAnalysis-DraftontheVpperSusitnaRiverProject.StateI.D.No.79020902DearMr.Cheatham:.-TheAlaskaStateClearinghousehascompletedreviewonthesubjectproject.TheStateClearinghousehasI1-ocQmmentonthisproject.ThisletterwLsatisfythereviewrequirementsoftheofficeofManagementandl....ldget'sCircula~A.-95.JM/czh~:~S'tate-FederalCoordinator357 MunicipalityofAnchorageMEMD.RANDUML",fE:February15,1979TO:ThomasR.Stahr,GeneralManagerFROM:H.C.Purcell,AssistantChiefEngineerSUBJECT:DOEAPAUPPERSUSITNARIVERPROJECTPOWERMARKETANALYSESIhave"reviewedtheJanuary1979draftofthisreportandfindnothingcontrover-sialinit.Thereisanerror,andthereareafewpointsIwillcommenton,noneofwhich,however,affecttheconclusionsreached.Onpage33,Table5showsAML&Pgenerationin1965as156.2GWH.Thisresultsinareagrowth1964-1965of34.4%and1965-1966growthof-0.6%.·AML&Pgenerationin1965wasactually101.5GWH.Thischangestheareatotalin1965to407.0GWH,1964-1965growthto18.5%and1965-1966growthto12.7%.anpages37and38,thereportstates"...correlationswithweather...seem-edindeterminableor oflittlesignificance."and"Energyuseandweathercom-parisonswereincG..clusive."Thisdoesnotagreewithmyworkorwithplaincommonsense.Growthbetween1973and1977isusedtoforecastenergyrequirements.Inthreeofthesefouryears,1974,1976and1977,theweatherwaswarmerthannormal.Ignoringtheinfluenceofweatherdepressesthegrowthrate.However,thisdoesnotaffectthereportmaterially,sinceitwindsupusingthreedifferentgrowthoates(low,mediumandhigh)initsmarketanalyses..Itisinterc_,ti19thatthesituationhasn'tchangedintwentyyears.Page98listssixmajorhydr:projectswithmuchbettereconomicsthantheUpperSusitna.Buttheyallremailtiedupby"majorenvironmentalandlanduseproblems.",Onpages100-102thereportbrushesoffexoticenergysourcesas"notrealistic.planningalternatives..,"Iapplaudthis,butsuspectthatmuchmoreworkwillhavetobedonetoconvincethevocalproponentsof"naturalenergy."Onpage104ther~portspecifies"Systemreservecapacityof25percentfornon-in-terconnectedloadcentersand20percentfor.interconnectedsystems."IcheckedthesenumbersagainstthePROBSrunsImadeiriconnectionwithDOEregulationsontransitionalfacilities.FortheAnchorageareaatpresent,PROBSshowedalossofloadprobabilityof0.2daysperyearwithapeakloadof466.3MW.Onthesamebasis,25%reservecapacitywouldcorrespondto.apeakloadof468.8MW.25%reservecapacitywouldresultinLOLPonlyslightlyover0.2daysperyear.With-thelargerinterconnectedsystemtenortwelveyearsinthefuture,20%reservecapacitywi11probablyprovidereasonablelOLP.Page34oftheBattelleInformalReportschedulesa200MWsteamplanttobeonlinein1982,threeyearshence.YetBattellepage22says"the5to6yearsche-dulingperiod[fromfinalsiteselectiontocommercialoperatio~appearsreason-able."EitherCEAisabouttobreakgroundforitscoal-firedsteamplantor.Battelle'sdatesareinconsistent.Again,however,itdoesn'treallymatter.The~elativeeconomicsofSusitnavs.coal-firedsteamwouldnotbeaffected.358 ·MunicipalityofAnchorageMEMORANDUMDATE:TO:FROM:.March1,1979ThoniasR.Stahr,GeneralManager,!1L&P!1axFoster,RevenueRequirementsSupervisor,r·1L&PSUBJECT:DOE-APAUpperSusitnaRiverProjectPowerMarketAnalysesThismemocommentsontheAlaskaPowerAdministration'sUpperSusitnaRiverProjectPowerMarketAnalysisdraftdatedJanuary1979.MyimpressionisthatthedemandprojectionsfortheAnchorageareaareconservative.Ialsothinkthattheinstalledcostofcoalplantsisconservative.TheSusitnaprojectcostsareprobablythemostreliablecostestimatesappearinginthereport.Iamnothappyw~ththemethodologydevelopingthecostofcoal.'Ithinkcoalcouldactuallycostmuchmorethan$1.00to$1.50permillionBTU.Theinflationratesusedintheanalysis(0%and5%)seemlowinlightofrecenttrends.Significantly,despitetheconservativeassumptionscontainedwithin~~ereport,theSusitnaprojectrepresentedtheleastcostoptioninerycase,Mypagebypag~reviewofthereportelicitedthefollowingcomments':Page37-'helackofcorrelationtoweatherandpricedisburbsme.Itmayindicateimproperequationspecificationcausedbyomittingimportantvariableorfailingtoinsertdummyvariablesintheregressionequationstocorrectforcyclicalabnormalities.Addit~onally.,itseemstomedemandprojectio)1s,Qy.'rateclass'wouldbemorestatistical,lypignificant.carf"'-la-u.,,'1/f.,.~~-n...c.rl':rSTt~\'3ol'l.a.Mtr.t-F(..1IyJc'-(c-/Jt:c./hq.foI/I"_""£.rl~Tc/'·#(Ioft<.d.1f7.Page77-TheshapeoftheAnchorageArealoaddurationcurvesuggeststhataheavyproportionofgenerationfortheareacouldbelargebaseloadincrements.Thisisveryfavorableforhydroelectricdevelopment.Page94-Idon'tlikethetreatmentof0& Mcosts.HowdoesthisrelatetoprosentactualAnchorag~laborcostsandtrends?Ithinkthepricesshouldbemeasureddirectly,notarbitrarilyincreased.Page150-Thepiplineterminal's37.5MWgenerationplantisnotinterconnected·withCVEA.Itisnotacogeneration_facility •-r;,fe,(e.Y1er9)"-FOC!/;-l-'Iy~-fh.cr-fJ.rCJ.-~1.'5359 Appendix3,Pages66to75-Whereisthepresent,worthoranntlalizedcostofpowercomputed?ThisisamajorchangefromtheearlierECOST2model.Ithinkthepresentworthanalysisisanim'po~tantpartofanypowercostanalysis.Ingeneral,theanalysisseemscomplete.Theconclusionsechothoseofpreviousstudies.Fromaneconomicprospective,theSusitna'Projectisunquestionablyjustified•.It~timetostop.revising..feasibilityanalysesandgetonwithlrcens~ngandconstruction./h-/Ie.l-IF:bw360 SECTIONHTRANSMISSIONSYSTEMNoneoftheOMBcommentsweredirectedattheengineeri"ngaspectsofthetransmissionsystem.Therearethereforenochangesmadetothissection.Costsoftransmissionhavebeenup-datedandappearinSectionB,ProjectDescriptionandCostEstimates.Theeconomicjustificationforthetransmissioninterti~isdiscussedinSectionG,MarketabilityAnalysis.361 SECTIONIENVIRONMENTALASSESSMENTFOR"TRANSMISSIONSYSTEMSThissectionhasnotbeensupplementedbecausenochangesweremadeto.thetransmissionplan.363 ,lill'II: SOUTHCENTRALRAILBELTAREA,ALASKAUPPERSUSITNARIVERBASINSUPPLEMENTALFEASIBILITYREPORTAPPENDIX-PARTISectionA-HydrologySect"ion'B-ProjectDescriptionandCostEstimatesSectionC-PowerStudiesandEconomicsSectionD-FoundationsandMaterialsSectionE -EnvironmentalAssessmentSectionF -RecreationalAssessmentPreparedbytheAlaskaDistrict,CorpsofEngineersDepartmentoftheArmYFebruary1979365 SECTIONA~IYDROLOGYThe1976InterimFeasibilityStudywasbasedon25yearsofhistoricalstreamflowrecords.Datathrough1977hasbeenadded,extendingtheperiodofhistoricaJstreamflowto28years.Theannualrunofffortheadditional3-yearperiodwas96percentofthelong-term"average.Powercapabilitiesofthehydroelectricprojectswerereevaluatedonthebasisoftheextendedperiodofrecord.TheresultsofthisanalysisappearinSectionC,PowerStudiesandEconomics.366 rJ."'ISECTIONBPROJECTDESCRIPTIONANDCOSTESTIMATESTABLEOFCONTENTSItemSUMMARYOFCHANGESGeneralWatanaDevilCanyonWATANADamSpi11wayOutletWorksDiversionFeaturesandOperationPenstocksandWaterwaysDEVILCANYONMainDam"SpillwayDiversionStructurePowerplantPenstocksandWaterwaysCONSTRUCTIONSCHEDULEGeneralDiversionPlansMainDamsPower-on-LineTransmissionLineCOSTESTIMATESDetailedCostEstimatesContingenciesWatanaDevilCanyonLISTOFTABLESPage369369369370371371371372372372373373373373374374375375375375375376377377378378379NumberTitlePageB-1DetailedCostEstimate-Watana(Firstadded)381B-2DetailedCostEstimateDevilCanyonConcreteGravity(Secondadded)39136769-7380-Rn_% LISTOFPLATESNumberTitleB-1SelectedTwo-DamP1an-GeneralPlanB-2WatanaDam-DetailPlanB-3WatanaDam-SectionsB-4WatanaDam-ProfilesB-5WatanaDam-Profiles,Sections,andDetailsB-6WatanaDam-DetailsB-7DevilCanyonDam-ConcreteGravityDam-DetailPlanB-8Devil'CanyonDam-ConcreteGravityDam-ElevationandSectionsLISTOFFIGURESB-1ConstructionSchedule368 SUMMARYOFCHANGESGENERALFieldsurveysduring1978revealedthattopographyforWatanadamshowninthe1976InterimFeasibilityReportwas15feethigherthanactualconditions.Datainthisreporthasbaseelevationscorrectedtothe1978topography.Onlyplatesortextrevisedforthi'ssubmittalwillreflectthenewelevationswhichare15feetlower.Thetopofdamisnowshownatelevation2,195feetandnormalpoolatelevation2,185feet.QuantitiesandcostestimateshavebeenrevisedandupdatedtoOctober1978levels.ThecostforWatanadamandreservoir(first-added)is$1,765,000,000versus$1,088,000,000inthe1976report.ThecostforDevilCanyondamandreservoir(second-added)is$823,000,000(concretegravity)and$665,000,000(concretearch)versus$432,000,000(concretearch)inthe1976report.Aconstructionschedulereanalysisresultedintheextensionoftheconstructionperiodfrom10to14years.Initialpower-on-lineisanticipatedin1994.WATANAThemaindamcrosssectionwasrevisedtobestutilizematerialsasdeterminedin1978fieldinvestigations.Agroutinggallerywasaddedunderaportionofthedam.Thespillwaywasmovedlaterallyandrevisedtotakebetteradvan-tageofrock1inesandtodischargedirectlyintoTsusenaCreekatstreamlevel.Theoutletworkswererevisedtoimprovehydrauliclayoutandaccessintotheintakestructures.Thediversiontunnelportalswererelocatedinbetterrockbaseduponinformationobtainedfromtheexploration·program.Thepowerintakeselectivewithdrawalsystemwasrevisedtobemorecomparablewiththosecurrentlyinuseatotherprojects.Rockexcavationquantitiesinthe1976reportwerebasedonacon-tinuouscutslope.Foundationexplorationsconcludedthattherockcutsshouldbeterraced.Datainthisreportisbaseduponrockcutsthatarecompatiblewiththislatestfieldinformation.369 Asaresultofnewandmoreaccuratetopography,thelengthofthedamhaschanged;therefore,totalembankmentquantitieshaveincreased.DEVILCANYONAgravitydamwasevaluatedandispresentedwithanoverdamspill-way,andthediversionstructuremodifiedtobemorecompatiblewithagravitystructure.Elevatoraccesswasprovidedtothepowerplantinsteadofaroadaccesstunnel.Thepowerintakeselectivewithdrawalsystemwasrevisedtobemoreccmparablewiththosecurrentlyinuseatotherprojects.The.generalplanshowingthelocationsofthetwodamsisonPlate8-1.370 rIWATANADAMThecrestlengthofthedamhaschangedfrom3,450feetto3,765feet,baseduponnewtopography.Asaresultofexplorationsintheriverbottom,thefoundationexcavationhasbeenrevised.Theriveralluviumwillberemovedtobedrockunderthedam.Agroutgallery,excavatedintorock,hasbeenaddedtoinsureadequatetreatmentofthepermanentlyfrozenbedrock.The1976InterimFeasibilityReportpresentedanearthfilldamutilizinglocalgraveldepositsforshellmaterial.Explorationshaverevealedthatthereareinsufficientgraveldepositswithineconomichauldistances.Sincealargeamountofsoundrockwillbegeneratedfromspi11wayexcavationandanexcel1entquarrysourceisavai1ableimmediatelyadjacenttothedamsite,thedesignhasbeenrevisedtosubstituterockfi11forgravelintheupstreamanddownstreamshells.Fieldexplorationsrevealedanabundanceofglacialtillintheareasuitableforuseastorematerial.Forthisreason,asemiperviouszonehasbeenaddedtousethelessexpensiveglacialmaterialratherthanquarriedrock.Thefiltershavealsobeenrevisedtotakeadvan-tageofadeqUatequantitiesofgravell~sandandthereadilyavailablerockquarry(seePlateB-3).ThegravellysandfromBorrowPitE,nearthemouthofTsusena~reek,willbeusedforthefinefilter,androck-fill,inthesmallersizesfromthequarry,-willbeusedforthecoarsefilter.DetailsoftherevisionsarediscussedinAppendixD,Founda-tionsandMaterials.SPILLWAYThesaddlespillwaycenterlinehasbeenmovedapproximately800feetsouthwest(seePlatesB-2andB-5).Thefoundationexplorationsmoredefinitelylocatedtopofrockinthisarea;therefore,thespill-waywasrelocatedtoinsureconstructioninrock.Crestgatewidthswerereducedfrom59feetto55feetafteradditionalhydrauliccalcu-lations.Theconcretelineddownstreamchannelsectionwaslengthenedfrom150feetto800feettoprotectagainstrockpluckingcausedbyhighwatervelocities.Thelengthofchanneldivergencewasrevisedfrom930feetdownstreamofthecrestto1,360feettoimprovehydraulics.Thespillwaychannelslopewasrevised,requiringexcavationitsfulllength,sothatitemergesattheTsusenaCreekleveltoreduceenviron-mentaldamageexpectedfromthe400-footverticalwaterdropovernaturalterrainwiththeoriginalspillwaydesign.Thissubstantiallyincreasesexcavation;however,almostallofthematerialwillbeusedinthedamembankment.371 OUTLETWORKSTheintakestructuresweremoved,shiftingthehighlevelintakestructureawayfromthedamembankment,realiningbothintaketunnelstoimproveconnectionstothediversiontunnelsandchangingtheaccessshaftsfromwithintheembankmenttotunnelsthroughtherightabutmentrockupstreamofthedam(seePlates8-4and8-6).Thisimprovesaccess,eliminatesproblemsassociatedwithastructuralshaftintheembankme~t,andreducessusceptibilitytodamagefromseismicevents.Thehighlevelintakeinvertwasraisedtorestrictoperatingheadsongatestounder250feet.DIVERSIONFEATURESANDOPERATIONThetwodiversiontunnelswerelengthened,bothupstreamanddown-stream,tolocatetheportalsinbetterrockasaresultofexplorationdataobtainedin1978.Therollergatesforcontrollingthediversiontunnelshavebeendeletedbecausestreamregulationisnotrequiredduringdiversion.WheeledbulkheadgateswillbeusedtocloseonetunnelatatimeduriongperiodsthatGlosuresarerequired.Thediver-siontunnelinvertshavebeenraisedtoreducecofferdanminganddewateringrequirementsattunnelportals.Cofrerdamheightwill.remainunchangedsincethereisoutlet.controlofdiversiontunnelflowsuptocofferdamdesignflood.Theschemeoftunnelpluggingandwatercontrolduringpoolfillinghasnotchanged.SeePlate8-6forplugandfillvalvedetails.PENSTOCKSANDWATERWAYSTheselectivewithdrawalsystem,designedtoselectwateratelevationswithinthereservoirwhichwillallowmeetingdownstreamwaterqualityrequirements,hasbeenrevisedtobemorecomparablewiththosecurrentlyinuseonotherprojects.Thisrevisionrequiresalargerconcretestructureontheupstreamfaceofthedamtoaccommodatethegates,trashracks,bulkheads,andoperatingequipment.372 DEVILCANYONMAINDAMAconcretegravitydam(seePlatesB-7andB-8)issubstitutedinthisreportforthedoublecurvaturethinarchstructureofthe1976InterimFeasibilityReport~Thethinarchdam'sstructuralintegrityisdependentontheadequacyandintegrityoftherockabutments.Founda-tioninvestigationstodateha.veraisednodoubts,concerningtheabut-mentrockstructuresbutareinadequatetoclearlyestablishabutmentconditions.Thenecessaryhorizontaldrillholesattheverticalcanyonwallswereestimatedtobesocostlythattoproceedinthesummerof1978wouldhavepreventedobtainingotherrequiredfoundationdataatWatariadamsitewiththefundsavailable.Acarefulreevaluationofthesituationindicatedastudyofthemoreconservativeandtechnicallyfeasiblegravitystructureshouldbemade..Theconcretegravitystruc-tureiseconomicallyfeasdb1e.Therequiredfoundationinvestigationswillbeconductedduringthepreconstructionadvanceengineeringanddesignperiodandthelessexpensivearchstructurewillbeconstructedifadequatefoundationconditionsexists.Thegravitysectionwillbe650feethighfrombottomofexcavation,basedonindicationsthattherockisfracturednearthesurface.Thecrestremainsatelevation1,455feet.Theconcretecrestlengthwillbe1,590feetandtheearthfil1portionwillhaveanO-footcrestlength.Nofieldexplorationswereconductedatthissiteunderthe1978programexceptforthreerefractionseismographlines.Thisinformation,combinedwiththeboringsdatacollectedbytheBureauofReclamationthatwasdiscussedintheinitialreport,isthebasisofthefoundationdesignforthesite.SPILLWAYThegravitydamwillhaveacentralgatedoverdamspillwaydischarg-ingintotneexistingriverchannel.DIVERSIONSTRUCTUREThediversiontunnelhasbeenlengthenedfrom1,150feetto1,230feetbecauseofthelongergravitydambaselength.Sinceflowregula-tionduringdiversionisnotrequired,theintakegateshavebeenreplacedwithwheeledbulkheadgates.RegulationofWatanareservoirtoreleasewaterintoDevilCanyonreservoirwillbeutilizedtofillthereservoirtothelowleveloutletsina·matterofhoursafterdiversiontunnelclosure.Propertimingwillallowmaintainingofdownstrea~flowswithminimuminterruption.373 POWERPLANTTheaccesstunneltothepowerplanthasbeenreplacedwithahousedverticalentranceshaftandelevator.Thisshaftwillbe20feetby30feetwideby548feetdeepandwillhouseanelevatorcapableofliftingthelargestitemsrequiredinthepowerhouse.Thel85-footlongaccesstunnelwillconnecttheacCessshafttothepowerplant.Theelevatorwi11provideequipment,personnel,andvehicularaccesstothepower-plantlevelatelevation907feet.PENSTOCKSANDWATERWAYSTheselectivewithdrawalsystemhasbeenrevisedtobemorecompar-ablewiththosecurrentlyinuseatotherprojects.Thesystemhasbeendesignedtoselectwateratelevationswithinthereservoirwhichwillallowmeetingdownstreamwaterqualityrequirements.Thisrevisionrequiredalargerconcretestructureontheupstreamfaceofthedamtoaccommodatethegates,trashrack,bulkheads,andoperatingequipment.374 CONSTRUCTIONSCHEDULEGENERALTheconstructionperiodhasbeenreanalyzedandextendedfrom10to14years.TheWatanadamandpowerplantwilltake10yearstocon-struct,anincreaseof4yearsoverthepreviousschedule.TheDevilCanyonprojectconstructionwillrequire8yearsratherthanthepre-viouslyreported5years.Therewillbe4yearsofoverlappingcon-structiontomeetpower-on-line.dates.ThescheduleisportrayedgraphicallyonFigureB-1..DIVERSIONPLANSTheWatanadiversionworksconstructionandstreamdiversionperiodhasbeenextendedto3years,fromthepreviouslyreported2years,becausetheconstructionaccesstothetunnelportalsrequiresextensiverockcutsandadditionaltime.Thestartofconstructioriofthediver-sionworksfortheDevilCanyondamhasbeendelayedfromthe5thtothe7thyearofWatanaconstructionbecauseitisdependentonstreamregulationbytheupstreamWatanadam.MAINDAMSFoundationpreparationatWatanaisdelayedtothe4thyearasaresultoftheextendeddiversionrequirementswhichde1a~thestartofcofferdamconstruction.Watanaembankmentconstructionisscheduledtobegininthe5thyearandcontinueintothe10th,nowrequiring6yearsinsteadofthepreviouslyreported3years,basedonconstructionseasonsof5monthswithdailyplacementratesof80,000cubicyards.Waterimpoundmentstartsinthe8thyearwithpower-on-1ineinOctoberofthelOthyear.Thereservoirfillingwouldcontinuebeyondthepower-on-linedateandisdependentoninflowandpowergeneration.FoundationpreparationforDevilCanyondamwouldstartinthe9thyear,adelayfromtheearlierreported7thyearofWatanadamconstruc-tion.ConcreteplacementanddamcompletionwouldstartinthelOthyear,requiring5years,anincreaseof2yearsovertheearlierschedule.Impoundmentwouldbegininthe13thyearwithreservoirfillingcompletedbyOctoberofthe14thyear.POWER-ON-LINEThescheduledpower-on-1inedatesare1994forWatanaand1998forDevilCanyoncomparedtothosepreviouslyscheduledin1986and1990,respectively.Thesedatesincludetheresultofthechangesinscheduled375 Congessionalconstructionauthoriz.ationfromJUly1980toOctober1984andthereanalyzedconstructionschedule.Theconstructionscheduleinthe1976reportwasbasedonanauthorizationforconstruction,whiletheChiefofEngineer'sReportrecommendedauthorizationforPhas~IAE&D.Thisrecommendationincorporated4yearsforstudypriortoseekingcon~truGtionauthorization.TRANSMISSIONLINETransmissionlineconstructionisscheduledtobecompletedin1991,makingitavailabletotietheAnchorageandFairbanksareastog~therinadvanceofWatanapower-on~line.376 COSTESTIMATESDETAILEDCOSTESTIMATESTablesB-1andB-2presentthecostestimatesforWatanaandDevilCanyon.Theestimatesarepresentedinasmuchdetailaspossiblebasedontheconceptdrawings.Unitcostforamajoritemsalsoincludesminoritemsthatwillappearasbiditemsasthedesignprogresses.ExtensiveusehasbeenmadeofbidabstractsfromsimilarprojectsconstructedinthewesternUnitedStatesandCanada.AllabstractedcostshavebeenescalatedtotheOctober1978levelandanadditionalfactorappliedtoreflectthehighercostofconstructioninAlaska.TheAlaskaPowerAdministration(APA)preparedthetransmissionlinecostestimateandhaveupdatedtheestimatetotheOctober1978level.Thetransmissionlinecostestimateincludesallstructures,equipmentandtransformersforthesWitchyardsandsubstationsforWatana,DevilCanyon,Fairbanks,andAnchorage.ThetransmissionlinecostisshowninTableB-1,Watana.Thetransformerslistedunder"Switchyard"inTablesB-1andB-2arelocatedinanundergroundtransformerchamberadjacenttothepower-house.Thecableslistedconnectthetransformerstopotheadslocatedintheswitchyard.TheAPAestimatedidnotincludeearthworkfortheswitchyards.Thiscosti~shownunder"Switchyard"inTablesB-1andB-2•..ThefollowingliststheestimatedJanuary1975costandtheOctober1978cost.WatanaDevilCanyonThinArchDamConcreteGravityDamJan19751$1,000)$1,088,000432,000Oct1978\$1,000)$1,765,000665,000823,000TheprojectcostusedintheeconomicanalysisincludesWatanaand.theconcretegravitydamplanatDevilCanyon."Thetotalcostis$2,588,000,000.377 CONTINGENCIESWatanaDamThetotalestimatedcontingenciesforWatanadamare$245,917,000,or18percentoftheestimatedWatanaconstructioncost.Themaindam,thelargestsinglefeatureofWatanaproject,hasacontingencyof15percent,or$58,178,000.Thisisarelativelyuncomplicatede~rthandrockfillstructure.The1978explorationprogramestablishedfounda-tionconditionsandsourcesofsuitableembankmentmaterialsinsuffi-cientquantitiestoconstructthedam.Theoverburdenisminimalandfoundationrockexposedovermuchofthesite.Radicalchan~esinfoundationconditionsandborrowsourcesarenotanticipated.Thedesignapproachforthespillwayisconservativeforarela-'tivelyuncomplicatedstructure.Fifteenpercentcontingencies,or$20,528,000,wereestimated.Theoutletworksestimateincludes20percentcontingencies,or$7,016,000.Theestimateincludes100percentliningofthediversionandoutlettunnels.Ifrockqualityisgood,someoftheliningmaybedeleted.Thepowerintakeworksestimateincludes20percentcontingencies,or$40,772,000.Thepowerhouseestimateincludes20percentcontingenciesor$13,294,000.Theundergroundpowerhouseinteriorfeaturerequirementsareknownfromcomparisonwithotherprojectsandacarefulreviewofthisitem.Turbines,generators,accessoryelectricalequipment,andmiscel-laneouspowerp1antequipmentareestimatedwith15percentcontingencies.Theseareknownfeatureswithquantitiesandbasiccostsfurnishedbyexperiencedpowerhousedesignpersonnel.Thetailracetunnelsareassumedtobe100percentconcretelined.Iftherockqualityisgood,someoftheseliningrequirementsmaybedeleted.Contingenciesforthisfeatureare15percent.Twentypercentcontingencieswereusedfortransmissionfacilities.ThetransmissionsystemestimatewaspreparedbytheAlaskaPowerAdministrationwithconsultation~ithBonnevillePowerAdministration.Contingenciesof20percentwereusedforroadsandbridges.Assumptionsonfoundationsassumeextensivetundraremovalandreplace-mentwithnonfrostsusceptablefillwhichrequireslargeborrowquantitiesforreplacement.378 Theconstructionfacilityrequirementshavebeenreviewedandcom-paredwithfacilitiesrequiredforsimilarstructuresonsimilarprojectssuchasDworshak,MicaandOroville.TheTransAlaskaOilPipelineconstructioncampexperiencewasalsoreviewed.Diversiontunnelsareassumedtobefullylinedandrocksupportassumptionsduringtunnelinghavebeenconservative.Carefulanalysesofmeansofdiversionandprocedureshavebeenmade.Contingenciesforconstructionfacilitiesare20percent..DevilCanyonDamThetotalcontingenciesusedfortheDevilCanyongravitydamestimateare$120,Ei51,000,or20percentoftheDevilCanyonconstructioncosts.ContingenciesforallfeaturesarethesamepercentagesasforWatanadamforthesamerea~ons,exceptthatcontingenciesforth~maindam,spillway,andauxiliarydamfeatureshavebeenincreasedto20percent.Twentypercentcontingencieswereusedforthemaindam.Assump-tionsonfoundationexcavationandpreparationforagravitydamareconservative.Bothabutmentsareexposedrock.Theconcretegravitystructureisrelativelysimplewithknownfeatures.Aggregatelocationsandquantitiesavailablehavebeenestablished.Theauxiliaryearthfillandconcretedamwasestimatedat20per-centcontingencies.Theborrowsourceisknown,partiallyexplored,andquantitiesdetermined.Thisisasimple,uncomplicatedstructure.Foundationexcavationandpreparationassumptionsareconservative.Thetotalcontingenciesforthethinarchdamalternateare$103,756,000or21.2percentoftheupdatedtotalestimatedconstruc-tioncostof$665,000,000.Ingeneral,thecontingenciesusedforthisprojectarebasedonintensivestudyandcomparisonwithcosthistoriesandexperiencewithotherprojects.TheOfficeofManagementandBudget(OMB)hasquestionedthecon-tingenciesusedbasedona36percentoverrunontheSnettishamproject.TheprojectcostestimatefortheSnettishamprojectwas$41,500,000forfiscalyear1967,thefirstyearofconstruction.ThisestimateincludedtheLongLakephaseofprojectdevelopment,campfacilities,thetrans-missionsystem,andrelatedfeatures.TheCraterLakephaseofprojectdevelopmentwasaddedinfiscalyear1973,butdesignandconstructionweresubsequentlydeferred..379 TheestimatesubmittedtoCongressforfiscalyear1976was$98,540,000,ofwhich$22,132,000wasapriceleveladjustment,reflect-inga35percentcostoverrun;however,.withdefermentoftheCraterLakephase,totalexpendituresthroughfiscalyear1978are$81,386,975,anactualcostoverrunof$17,754,975,or22p~rcent.Thiscostoverrunincludesthetemporaryrepairandsubsequentpermanentrelocationofafailedportionofthetransmissionline.Environmentalconsiderationsdictateditsoriginallocationinanareaofunanticipatedandunknownextremewindsandiceconditionsnotpreviouslyencounteredonanytrans-missionlineinNorthAmerica.Theincreasedcostforthetransmissionlinetemporaryrepairsandpermanentrelocationwas$9,976,000oftheoverrun,reducingtheremainderoftheoverrunto$7,778,985or10per-cent.ThisinformationisreflectedintheGeneralAccountingOfficeReporttoCongressonFinaticialStatusofMajorCivilAcquisitions-December31,1975,dated24February1975.380 II"T/\I~L[IJ-l--UETAILIOCOS"IESTH1AT[--COliLilIuedHATANADAt~ABORESERVOIRCostAccountUnitTotalNumberDescriptionorItemUnit"QuantCostCost($)($1,000)04DAMS04.2SPILLWAYRockCY10,533,0008.0084,264ConcreteMassCY16,900100.001,690Structura1CY9,750500.004,875LiningCY15,600450.007,020CementCwt182,5008.001,460ReinforcementLb1,J23,000..55618Drill&groutforanchorsLF17,20020.00344Taintergates1200000#,gatehoistsEA;31,250,000.003,750StO(:'lbgs(400000#)LS1600Spillwaybridges(551Lby261W)(3EA)LS500DrainageLS2,000Mob-PrepLS6,517Subtotal·J36,854Contingencies15%20,528TOTAL,SPILLHAY151,00004.3OUTLETWORKSExcavationCommonCY35,70015.00536RockCY115,40050.005,770Tunnel25~45°slopeCY29,400190.005,586VerticalCY1,880140.00263HorizontalCY4,250125.00531ConcreteLining45°slopeCY6,000600.003,600RebarLB322,000.55177Vert.ica1CY350500.00175RebarLB14,100.558HorizontalCY820·300.00246RebarLB33,100.5518StructuralCY9,600600.005,760RebarLB900,000.55495RockboltsInverticalfaceDri11&groutbolts(92,200LB)LF21,40020.00428383.69-7380 -80-25 Iii!T/\BI:EB""1""-()[T/\WEDCOStLSTIM/\TE--COllI.illlH'd!!Iil;;"111iiWI\TANADI\t1Ar~[)RESERVOIRj:i[1:11IIIICostiili!IiiACCQI.,mtUnitTotalNumberDescriptionorItemUnitQuantCostCost($)($1,000)04DAMS04.3OUTLETWORKS45°SlopeLF4,80020;0096HorizontalLF4,40020.0088Taintergates(4)LB496,0003.001,488Slidegates(4)'LB2,200,0003.006,600Trashracks(2)LB64,8002.00130CementCwt110,7008.00886Elevators(50-ton)LS2250,000.00500MobandPrepworkLS11,700SUbtotal.35,081Contingencies20%7,016TOTAL,OUTLETWORKS42?00004.4pm~ERINTAKEWORKSMo~_andPrepWorkLS19,700IntakestructureExcavation(rock)CY222,00030.006,660FoundationpreparationSY3,70050.00185MassconcreteCY39,500100.003,950StructuralconcreteCY102,900500.0051,450CementCwt555,6008.004,445Restee1LB9,372,000.55.5,155Emb.metalLB35,0004.50158TrashrackLB.938,0002.001,876StairsLS1100ElevatorLS1300BulkheadgatesLB3,860,0002.007,nOStop10gs·1LB1,594,0002.003,188ElectricalandmechanicalworkLS.12,250TruckcraneLS1300BridgeLS13,500TrashboomLS1425TunnelexcavationCY95,100175~0016,643ConcreteCY35,200350.0012,320CementCwt140,8008.001,126ResteelLB483,000.55266Steel1inerLB24,350,0002.7065,745Bor:nettedgatesEA31,800,000.005,400LogBoomLS1.500..:.",-384 T/\BLL'B-(_·-!JUJULL!JCUSILST1M/\IL--CollLilIueuWATANADAMArmRESERVOIRCostAccountNumberDescriptionorItemUr.itQuantUnitCost($)TotalCost($1,000)0404.40707.1DAMSPOHERINTAKEWORKS(Cont'd)ElectricalandmechanicalworkLSSubtotalContingencies20%TOTAL,POWERINTAKEWORKSTOTAL,DAMSPOWERPLANTPOWERHOUSEMobandprepworkLSRockexcavation,tunnels,P.H.chamber,trans-formerchamber,etcCYConcreteCYCementCwtReinforcementLBArchitecturalfeaturesLSElevatorsLSf4echanc.ia1andelectricalworkLSStructuralsteelLBMisc.MetalworkLBDrafttubebulkheadgates-guidesLS.RockboltsLFSteelsetsLB600tonbridgecraneLS30tonbridgecraneLSAirshaft(transformerchamber)31DIA8801LSSubtotalContingencies20%TOTAL,POWERHOUSE3851202,00057,600261,0006,912,00011,250,000150,.00018,445.102,000-111.75.00500.008.00.552.004.5030.002.00500203,86240,772245,0008~O,OOO3,00015,15028,8002,0883,8021,5006005,0002,5006757502532041,000~,25090066,47213,29480,000 T/\BLLB-1--DEl/\lLUJCUSIl.STlMAlT--COilLiIluedWATANADAt4ANORESERVOIRTOTAL,SWITCHYARDTRANSMISSIONFACILITIEST-ransmissionfacilitiesLSContingencies20%TOTAL,TRANSMISSIONFACILITIESTOTAL,POWERPLANTROADSANDBRIDGESPermanentAccessRoad-27miles(HighwayNo.3toDevilCanyon)ClearingandgrubbingACExcavationRockCYCommonCYEmbankmentCYRiprap_CYRoadsurfacing(crushed)CYBridgesLSCulvertsandguardrailLSPermanentAccessRoad-·37miles(DevilCanyontoWatana)ClearingACExcavationRockCYCommonCY135.1,500.00CostAccountNumber0707.507.607.708DescriptionorItemPOWERPLANT(Cont'd)TAILRACE(Cont'd)CofferdamSubtotalContingencies20%TOTAL,TAILRACESWITCHYARDTransformersInsulatedcablesEarthworkSubtotalContingencies20%UnitLSLSLSLSQuant111200,00060,000890,0002,700216,00011195300,00090,000UnitCost($)20.003.003.5030.0015.001,500.0020.003.QOTotalCost($1,000)2,00049,8269,9G560;0005,4342,832J,3009,5661,9;311,000255,00051,000306,0t305"j1,0002034,0001803,115813,24015,0001,2502936,000270387. TABL.LB-l--U[lAlU:UCUS':LSTlMl\Tl--CullLiIlued~iATANADAr1ArmRESERVOIRCostAccountNumberDescriptionorItemUr.itQuantUnitCost($)TotalCost($1,000)08ROADSANDBRIDGES(Cont'd)EmbankmentCYRiprapCYRoadsurfacing(crushed)CYBridgesLSCulvertsandguardrailLSPermanenton-siteroadsPowerplantaccesstunnelLSPowerplantaccessroadLSDamcrestroadLSMobandprep.LSSpillwayaccessroadLSSwitchyardaccessroadLSRoadtooperatingfacilityLSPowerintakestructureaccessroadLSAirstripaccessroadLSS'ubtotalt6ntingencies20%1,244,0003,800304,000111111111113.50'30.0015.004,3541144,5605,0002,25015,4591,971·1253,50056030030037565073,15014,63014TOTAL,ROAQANDBRIDGESRECREATIONFACILITIESSiteDCampunits(tentcamp)EAVaulttoiletsEASubtotal·.Contingencies20%"Total'Site0103,000.0023,000.0038•.00030636743SiteETrail·systemContingencies20%TotalSiteEMI1215•000.001803621619TOTAL,RECREATIONFACILITIES"BU!LDINGS;GROUND,ANDUTILITIEScLivin~quartersandO&MfacilitiesLS38811,0002,500 l"I\ULlU-1-':'UETl\lLElJCOSI.ESTlMATE--Cunt.inued"-WATANADAMANDRESERVOIRTOTALCONSTRUCTIONCOSTCostI\ccountNumberDescriptionorItemUnitQuantUnitCost($)Iotal'Cost($1,000)1,619,000ENGINEERINGANDDESIGN4%SUPERVISIONANDADMINISTRATION5%TOTALPROJECTCOSTWATANADAMANDRESERVOIRELEVATION2185(First-Added)39065,00081,0001,765,000 ~ITABLEB-2--DETAILEDCOSTESTIMATE·DEVILCANYONDAMANDRESERVOIR,ELEVATION1450;GRAVITYDAMOCTOBER1978PRICELEVEL(SECOND-ADDED)CostAccountNumberDescriptionorItemUnitQuantityUnitCost($)TotalCost($1,000)CY476,40020.009,528CY89,4005.00447CY256,10080.0020,488CY2,138,00075.00160..350CY8,883475.004,219CY18,600...450.00'8,370LS18,000LS1900Lb3,255,000.551,790EA21,500,000.003,000LS1700LS11,00001030404.1:'.:LANDANDDAMAGESReservoirPublicDomainState&PrivateLandMiningClaimSubtdta1"Contingencies20%GovernmentAdministrative,CostTOTAL,LANDANDDAMAGESConstructionCostEconomicCostRESERVOIRMob-PrepWorkClearing.Subtota1Contingencies20%TOTAL,·RESERVoIR·DAr~SMAIN.DAMExcavationRockExcavationcommonExteriormassconcreteInteriormassconcreteStructuralconcrete(damstructure)Concrete(spillway)Postcooling-InstrumentationPier&spillwayrebarTaintorgatesBridqes.Preventionorwater•.pollutionAC1,920800.00(0)14,160814,1682,83455818,00018,00018,00C771,536·1,6133232,000391 TABLEB-2:...-~ETAILEO.cOSTESTIMATE::..::..Continued,-~.....".....DENI4·'~!\N'(or~"IJl\M..l\NUR[SEHVOIR,ELEVATION1450,GRAVITYUAt1CostAccountNumberDescriptionorItemUnitQuantityUnitCost($)TotalCost($1,000)LS.cYCYCYCYCwtLbLb41,350,000.001,845.'20~00891,560~.554,496.5406,0201,0001,0007506006861,5001,500112,2243,5001,8381,6762,3635,400374901,4001,0002,75059,52815,4007305,2155921',36321,560323,44564,689388,000A.505.56'50'.0035.00-500.00~'55400.0020~008:0075:.'00175.00ioo.OO500,.00R.OO.552.25111111112,500400,00070,00052,5003,3524,296,1153,50050;0'0017,441,00017,200'34,4007,300'10,43074,0002,478,0009,582,270DAMSMAINDAM(Cont'd)ScalingcanyonwallsLSStoplog,completeLSGantrycraneLS·ElevatorLSStairwaysLSRockboltsLSElectricalandmechancialworkLSMiscellaneousmetalworkLb.FoundationtreatmentLFDrillfngCandgroutingLFDrillingdrainageholesLFConcreteforparapetandoverhangCYResteelLbSlidegates,frames,guidesandoperatorsSetsChain'linkfenceLFReste~lforsluceconduitsLbExploratorytunnels(excavation)CYRockboltsLF.contractionjoint&coolingsystemgroutingLSCementCwtMobandPrepLSSubtotalContingencies20%TOTAL,'MAINDAMPOWERINTAKEWORKSMobandPrepExcavationOpencutTunnels.conCreteMassStructuralandbackfillCementReinforcingsteelPenstoCks'0404.104.4392 TI\13LEB-2--DETAILEDCOST!:'STIMATE--Continucdj"UEVIL,CI\NYOr~IJf\M,I\NURESEIWOIR,ELEVI\TION1450,GRAVITY[JI\MCost,Account'NumberOescriptiOllorItemUnitUnitQuantityrCost($)TotalCost($1,000)04DAMS'04.4POWERINTAI~EWORKS(Contld)BonnettedgatesandcontrolsEA4 1,80C,000.007,200",Stop1ogs,(936000#)LS11,875Trashracks(421,000#each)EA::21.501,263IntakeselectorgatetowerExcavationrockCY7,400'50.00370ConcretestructuralCY47,100'500.0023,550CementCwt188,400,8.001,507ReinforcementLb7,065,000.55.'3,886Selectorgates(1,500,000#)EA;43,375,000.0013,50094,41718,883,113,00Q;,04.5SubtotalContingencies20%TOTAL,POWERINTAKEWORKSAUXILIARYDAM(EARTHFILLANDCONCRETE)MobandPrepLSExcavationDamfoundationCYFoundationprepareation8YDamembankmentCYDri11ingandgrouting:LF1100,0002,100835,0008,8006.0050.006.0060.003126001055,0105280707.1Subtota1Contingencies20%TOTAL,AUXILIARYDAMTOTAL,DAMSPOWERPLANTPOWERHOUSEMobandPrepworkExcavation,rockConcreteCementReinforcingsteelArchitecturalfeaturesLSCYCYCwttbsLS'39,31208,40022,00088,0005,400,00016',5551,3118,000509,0002,00075.00;15,630500.0011,OQO8"00704"i)il.552,97"01,500 "TABLEB--2--DETAILEDcostESnt4ATE--Continued,'DEVILCANYor~DAMANDRESERVOIR,ELEVATION1450,GRAVITYDAMCost,AccountUnitTota1NumberDescriptionorItemUnitQuantityCostCost($)($1,000)07POWERPLANT07.1POWERHOUSE(Cont'd)ElevatorLS1200MechancialandelectricalworkLS14,812Structur~lsteelLb1,200,0002.25MiscellaneousmetalworkLb150,0004.50675Subtotal42,191Contingencies20%8,438,TOTAL,POWERHOUSE51,00007.2TURBINESANDGENERATORSTurbinesLS120,250GovernorsLS11,053GeneratorsLS122,950Subtota~44,253•......Contingencies15%"6,638,'.TOTAL,TURBINESANDGENERATORS':51,0Ob07.3ACCESSORYELECTRICALEQUIPMENTAccessoryElectricalEquipmentLS2,512Contingencie$15%377TOTAL,ACCESSORYELECTRICALEQUIPMENT3,00007·4MISCELLANEOUSPOl~ERPLANTEQUIPMENTMiscellaneous'Powerplant"'1EquipmentLS11,798'Contingencies15%270TOTAL,MIS~ELLANEOUSPOWERPLANTEQUIPMENT2,00007.5TAILRACEMobandPrepLS1766ExcavationtunnelCV74,50085.00.6,333Concrete,CV17,500300.005,250CementCwt70,2008.00562ResteelLb,3,029,000.551,66~DrafttubebulkheadgateandgUidesLS1700Tailracetunnelstoplogs(370,000#)LS1800Subtotal'i)il1'6',077Contingencies20%3,215TOTAL,TAILRACE19,000394 395 TABLE'B-2--DETAILEDCOSTESTIt4ATE--ContinuedDEVilCANYONDI\MI\NDRESERVOIRtELEVATION1450t_GRI\VITY()I\f~CostAccountNumber14DescriptionorItem·RECREATIONFACILITIESSiteB,(Cont'd)ComfortstationsPowerSewageSubtotalC6ntingencies20%TotalSiteBUnitEALSLSQuantity211Unitlota1CostCost.($)($·1,000)60,000.00120407551010261219SiteCTrailheadpicnic'areaaccessroadPicnicunitsw/parkingTrailsystemT~o-vaulttoiletsSubtotal.Contingencie~.20%Tota1,SiteCMileEA'MileEA..2;'150,,000.00123tOOO.003015,,000.0023;'000.00303645065221046261,000.20396111212,500300702203,000.0063,4966994,000·2,2004403,000 TABLE13-2--IJETAILEDCOSTESTIMATE--ContinuedDEVILCANYONDAMANDRESERVOIR,ELEVATION1450,GRAVITYDAMCostAccountUnitTota1NumberOeseriptionorItemUnitQuantityCostCost($)($1,000)50CONSTRUCTIONFACILITIESMobandPrepworkLS11,885CofferdamsSheetpileTon1,0241,500.001,536Earthfi11.CV.38,00015.00570Pumping.LS13,500RemoveCofferdamsLSt.600DiversionworkdsTunnelexcavationCV35,700100.003,570ConcreteCV9,200300.002,760CementCwt36,8008.00294ReinforcementLb1,564,000.55860SteelsetsLb15T,0003;00.471RockboltsEA1,150300.00345TunnelPlugConcreteCV1,100600.00_660CementCwt4,4008.0035ReinforcementLb187,000.55103DiversionIntakeStructureExcavationrockCV104,00030.003,120ConcretestructuralCV3,800500.001,900CementCwt15,2008.00122ReinforcementLb380,000.55~209BulkheadLb960,0001.501,440ApproachChannelLiningConcreteCV1,600.300.00480CementCwt6,4008.0051ReinforcementLb-80,000.5544DiversionOutletStructureExcavationRockCV274,00050.0013,700ConcreteCV1,100500.00550CementCwt4,4008.00.35ReinforcementLb110,000.5561Stop1ogsLb100,0001.50150OutletChannelLiningConcreteCV900500.00450CementCwt3,600·8.0029ReinforcementLb45,000.5525Subtotal39,555Contingencies20%7,911TOTAL,CONSTRUCTIONFACILITIES47,000397 TABLEIf-2-:-DETAILEDCOSTESTIMATE--ContinuedDEVIL,CANYOI{DAMANDRESERVOIR,ELEVATION1450,GRAVITYDAMTOTAL,CONSTRUCTION'COSTENGINEERINGANDDESIGN7%SUPERVISIONANDADMINISTRATION5%TOTALPROJECTCOSTDEVILCANYONDAMANDRESERVOIRELEVATION1450,GRAVITYDAM(SECOND-ADDED)CostAccountNumber3031DeseriptionorItemUnit.QuantityUnitCost($)TotalCost($1,000)735,00051,00037,000823,000·398 CORPS OF ENGINEERS L~"GE' ~ 04.1 MAIN DAM ~-SPILLWAY 04-.3 OUTLET lIIORK 04.4 PQI.<IER INTAKE U.S.ARMY CALENDER YRJ.SL9 1 CALE~.QER VR 1.9.8_oL_CALENDE~VRlSBl-l_CALENDER yR OOt CALENDER )'R l@lr:lALE~_Qiiiiii§J£!f:r::di1il_Eiii19liJCALENDER YRl9B.6IMENDER YR l.Q.8.1.i CAL>3ii§A£ FISCALYR_I FISCALYR_I FISCALYR __I FISCALVR __1 FISCALYR __I FISCALYR __I FISCALYR __I FISCALYR __I FISCALYR __I FISCALYR 10INI0~JIFIMI.IMIJ IJI.lsloiN 10'J IFlIol'IMI'IJ 1.lslolN 10'J IFIMI.IMIJIJ 1.lsloINlo'JIF I.I.IMIJ IJ 1.lsloINlo:J IFIMI.IMIJI,1.lslolNlo 'J IF IMI.IMI,IJI.ls 101Nlo',IFIMI.IMI,IJ 1.lsloINlo:J IFIMI.IMI,IJ 1.ls 10iNI0 :JIFIMI.IMIJ IJI.ls loiN 10 ~IFlotl<IMIJ IJ 1.ls '511 ,Plr NPA FORM 104 APR 75 TLNNEL 2 COFFERDM-1S WATANA DM-1 PROJECT •••••••DEVI L CANYON DAM PROJECT .. -=FIGURE 8-1 CONSTRUCTION SCHEDULE SHEET 1 OF 2 CIO:~Ii'TEIR 'LIE 07.6 SWITCH YARD TRA~S.MISS ION • CALENDER YIt~I CALENDER YR .l9.901_CALEtm.ER Yft"lgg)l CALENDER yRl..9..92·!CALENDER_YR l.9.9.3 I ~ALENDER Y~J..9.9..4J CALE.NDER YR..l.9.9.S I CALEN CORPS OF ,ENGINEERS LANDS &[).A.MO.GES RESE"RVOI RESER\iOi'R 04.1 M'oIN DAM 04.2 SPILLWA 04.3 OUTLET WORKS ~WER INTAKE--- 07.1 POWE 07.2 TURBINES &G8'JERATQ; __c7.3 ~.CC.-.E.LEC EOUIP,j:>, 0 0 ,------or:"~MfSCPoWER,PLANT·EOUIP ROADS &BR I DGE'S. '~ECREATI UTIL 20 PERM OPR EQUIP 50 CONST F. TU-~EL-I ~ ACCESS &DIV Tt..NNEL WATA/'-tC\DAM PROJECT •••••••DEVIL C!'NYON pM<PROJECT FIGURE 8-1 CONSTRUCTION. SCHEDULE SHEET 2 OF 2NPAFORM104 APR 75 """,>",>,_,,"~1Jt)f;mt"Ihrrrme ALASKA DISTRICT,CMPS Of ,ENGINEERS SOUTHCENTRAL RAILBELT AREA,ALASKA SUPPLEMENTAL FEASIBILITY STUDY UPPER SUSITNA RIVER BASIN SELECTED 2 DAM PLAN GENER}\L PLAN P~ATE B-1 FEBRUAR'f 1979 \ I '\......~ ~ ('-'./"" ) """":'"---..:.;F Si't;~ .l I I <. -'l p ~~~ ~,,'i-o rr------ /Lake Lourse Road ___f To GI.nn HiQhWay\ ---v ./-,('--,_J\/~t .0 -"~ l'--\.,~~" 01-"..... <9.1.0c.:\ "1-0 ( ""11;-\ I / '--\. "r' ~ \ I \ !lj~=f;:I~':la:I::O"= UPPER SUSITNA RIVER PROFILE RIVER MILES 120-290 ~ S~ALE n "10 15 20Miles t ..., ~., ~,~,,'<t,&# 66o."'~ ,"io~~ I J ~... 1032-19 • ANC_AGE,M.ASlIA ALASKA DlST"ICT,CORPS Of ENGINEERS PLATE 8M 2 FEBRUARY 1979 SQUTHCEN"TRAL RAiLBELT AREA.ALASKA 9..IPPLEMENTAL FEASIBILITY STUDY U.PPER SUSITNA RIVER BASIN WATANA DAM DETAIL PLAN ~'O'oo. ~.OOO ~2100 ~ 160,000 -r--: ~~l'kNstON WORKS NOTES: I.TOPOGRAPHIC CONTOURS ARE BASED ON AERIAL PHOTOGRAPHY DATED 10 JUNE 1978.VERTICAL DATUM IS MEAN SEA LEVEL (M 5 U ~r~;s NORMAL POOL £1..a18~ •~10.000 I~OOO 30,000 4~OOD l~:;;OO~~~oooeo.oOO Q IN CFS ~ is '"Ii: l!i i;l ! ~ i!::80 :r:/.1 J1 ~ III l:! i;l ! t; ~ Z Zo .~ ~ .l:ooo ~ ".,,,,~ ·-:i:;?~ c~'~) '-1900 ~ ! -1800 ~ ~ -1700 ut -1600 -1500 -1400 -2000 -2200 , 1800 , 1600 , 1400 SANDY GRAVEL ~.-:L-~FFERDAM Ij /"(~~E DETAIL A) , 1200 , 1000 ROCKFILL ROCK LINE , BOO ..mi..DAM- ;/""S.s:§................-2100 12'COARSE FILTER "---~"") , 600 COFFERDAM -DETAIL A ~TYP_EACH SIDE~~MINIMUM POWER POOL EL.1940 , 400 , 200 Io DISTANCE IN FEET , 200 , 400 21[7 .00 , BOO , 1000 FILTER , 12001400 COFFERDAM (SEE DETAIL Al TYPICAL SECTION ,j::o,ow 2400- , 36003400 EXISTING GROCJND. , 3200 SOUTHCENTRAL RAiLBELT AREA.ALASKA SUPPLEMENTAL FEASIBILITY STUDY UPPER SUSITNA RIVER BASIN WATANA DAM SECTIONS , 2800 , 2600 ~OP~I~~~'Z~TTiJ~~~~~1 l <t.DIVERSION TUNNEL "2~·30'CIA,(NOT TO SCALE I .. , 2400 , 2200 , 2000 , 1800 DAM .CREST__E.L-,---ZI95 , , 1400 1600 DISTANCE IN FEET POWER INTAKE STRUCTURE , 1200 RETAINING WALL , 1000 , BOO600 , 400 GLACIAL TILL· 2300- 1400- 1900- , 200 2000- 0; is 1600- "~~1500- ::i 1800- !m1700- WATANA DAM AND INTAKE STRUCTURE LOOKING DOWNSTREAM 100'Ii 100'200' t !! OllUHICICALE'I"olOQ'-O' AIJ,SI(A DISTRICT I CORPS OF ENGINEERS ANCttORME,ALASKA FEBRUARY 1979 PLATE 1-5 ALASKA DISTRICT,CORPS Oft ENGINEERS I·l I ! SOUTHCENTRAL RAiLBELT AREA.ALASKA SUPPLEMENTAL FEASIBILITY STUDY UPPER SUSITNA RIVER BASIN WATANA OAM PROFILES -2200 -2roo -2000 -reDo -1~00 -1600 -1400 O~&PHlC SC"&L!''"'EU h _.~:r.~..~.:r om 'yo -1800 -2200 -2100 -'000 -1700 LOW LEVEL INTAKE STRUCTURE ,III1\ , 14 I 16. ,b I " ,k I " 2~2~ I " I 24 ,\Jo , " ~INV,EL,19~0 -.......';'If.,:L:,:35 "-'- J, I " J. I " J. , " J. I.. .'0 I " ~, I " PROFILE HIGH LEVEL OUTLET a DIVERSION TUNNEL·' PROFILE LOW LEVEL OUTLET a OIVERSION TUNNEL,j,2 4. .~I 42 .~ Z:.NQRMAI MAl'i pool £LEy 2185 --------._---~._----.....-./ /// / "'.,,<-;;jLt'IO/EXISTINGGROUNDo/ /, /, DiVERSION TUNNEL// .......INTAKE STRUCTURE/"/ "/' -"t:1 ._.-,-=._-~-,-----,-""--,,:so'DIVERSION TUNNEL --EL,r"lt60 ~30 luNNEL LUG I 44 I.. r:IO'R ~O I..I.. "'" INV.EL.1460 1400 I " I " /- // .~.//EXISTlNGGROUNO~:-'/ ,,/ ,,/ //// ".....//b;J"DIVERSION TUNNEr:-1600 ./ -.,!NTAKE STRUCTURE150'R /,.// '"'.............-I~l~ .......EL.146iL.~.~~,140 30 TUNNEL 30'OIVRSION E ,~ uG a FILL VALVE SEE DETAIL ON PLATE e·6 Ao A A'lCHOIlAG£,AU&lA F~BRUARY 1979 PLATE B-4 ";:J,;."~<;!.,~~;.,~w.~J&&?w;'j"·'h'~:'ttd 2.25,= SLOPE.0' 800' ~0.02 SADDLE SPILLWAY DETAIL .~~~'.' STOPI.OG SLOT .05 "'. CR~ST £1,.2'47 MAXIMUM SURCHARGE'''0 SUJPE TO DRAIN IN'l.EL.2105 ;;;,~~I/~'~ W.S.EL.f6JJ rSUSENA CREEK 7000 NORMAL POOL EI..2/8$ 6000 OVER6<IROEN I_~I~~~h~ ~i<Jg '0004000 ~'"~I~~~ ~~ ~-~I~ "~~ 2000 3000 DISTANCE IN FEET Sl.QPEaOl I.~ ~~ ~~II~ 1--£WArANA DAM POOlFI?J85~ 2500- 1000 0 1000 SADDLE SPILLWAY €.PROFILE SCALE IN FEET '00 0 ~•.•••,I ''''''·~r·o'~r~·~~~Sl~~'"~l;)~~~"'ll~"OO-_~~~~I~~"~~~I-~~' ~o VI INTAKE STRtlCTIIRE DOWNSTREAM WALL SADDLE SPILLWAY SECTION A-A NOT TO SCALE PLATE a-a FEBRUARY 1919 SOUTHCENTRAl RAiLBELT AREA.ALASKA SUPPLEMENTAL FEASIBILITY STUDY UPPER SUSITNA RIVER BASIN WATANA DAM SADDLE SPILLWAY AND PENSTOCK PROFiLES,SECTIONS AND DETAILS ALASKA DISTRICT,CORPS OF ENGINEERS ANCtIOFl&GE,IlLASIlo\ STOPLOG SLOT f......AVG TAIL WATER EL.1465 ---.£1../405 @.,.. TAILRACE TUNNEl.,60'HORSESHOE ----...... '1-_ r f POWERHOUSE t/NfT$-1__ I I--£SURGE CHAMBER AND •. I ()RAFT TlJIJE 8tJt.KHEAD WELL I PENSTOCK It.PROFILE NOT TO SCALE ..I'/h (---- I ~ -~ '- !:,;r~-'...rr DIVERSION TUNNELS .,AND.2 INTAKE STRUCTURE PLAN '&EL.1485 HIGH AND LOW LEVEL INTAKE PLAN @ A-A ~o 0- I ',*-3dDlVERSIONTUNNEL .' ~.:~'. ~60 I I I I ~~~~I II I ~~~VA~E~~~~rKE : ONLY------J ---j A fTRASH8.ARS / .,;",,,,,'" ;~~'vi.~·· 2-1O'X6.7S' SLIDE GATES PLUG AND FILL VALVE DETAIL NOT TO SCALE DIVERSION TUNNELS '*lAND '*2 INTAKE STRUCTURE ~ ,,~ HIGH AND LOW LEVEL INTAKE S SECTION SOUTHCENTRAL RAILBELT AREA.ALASKA SUPPLEMENTAL FEASIBILITY STUDY UPPER SUSITNA RIVER BASIN WATANA DAM DETAILS ALASKA DiSTiller,CORPS OF EttOINEERS AIlCHOIIA(lE,A!.,t.9I(l FEBRUARY 1979 PLATE 9-6 •....•,;,c;;<;j''i.>''';;wwWt:iit;¥#@;'::t'if''. ~o..... ~,~'t'~;'.f-:i?<. '\'" '"c. ",I 'tid 0'100'10'0'., _'A~"•••.•."., . SOUTHCENTRAL RAiLBELT AREA I ALASKA SUPPLEMENTAL FEASIBILITY STUDY UPPER SUSITNA RIVER BASIN DEVIL CANYON DAM CONCRETE GRAV ITY DAM DETAIL PLAN ALASKA DISTRICT.CORPS OF ENGINEERS FEBRUARY 1979 PLATE B-7 AXIS OF DAM. ~~1.$iij 0.75,I, -.-d ao'100' GlIAl"lIH:ICA~I''".00'-0' TYPICA'::.NON-OVERFLOW SECTION ~...M.AXJ.W,El.924ll:':~~TOP LOG SLOT SECTION THRU PENSTOCK AND POWER PLANT SCALE:I"lod AXIS OF DAM ~ CREST "f\..1412.5 _.......~_E,(".100"0" SPILLWAY SECTION 'F_.L if If .c.'Q 00 26'OIA.DIVERSIO~.A.. TUNNEL ~ FINE FILTER ,",~;:LT::...111A ~d 40'10'keU_!""'L~'~.• SOUTHCENTRAL RAiLBELT AREA.ALASKA SUPPLEMENTAL FEASIBILITY STUbY . UPPER SUSITNA RIVER BASIN DEVIL CANYON DAM CONCRETE GRAVITY DAM ELEVATION AND SECTIONS.00400,oboaboIdeo UPSTREAM ELEVATION DEVELOPED ALONG {OF DAM SCALE:1-·100' 1200 LJ'MAX POOL .',',,'_~EL 14BB '"/'\/\ /...,....-\,."\ /_....I '.---""----j , .-'--....,,1"\\ \ \ \"I IEL.1085 ... "-.... 1400 ~ / / / TOP.OF WAU./I 26'CIA.pI.UGSECnON·, ~...._----.EL::iAL:::;,(;;;;;;;;]~=~~~====:;;;;:===~-"I....tiL.. DIVERSON TUNNEL PROFILE SCALE:I -100' ALASKA DISTRICT,CORPS OF ENGINEERS ANCIIOltNlI,A!."A FEBRUARY 1979 PLATE B-a ,. ''-jSECTIONCPOWERSTUDIESANDECONOMICSTABLEOFCONTENTSItemSUMMARYOFCHANGESSTUDYAREAECONOMYSummaryofChangesIntroductionHumanResourcesEmploymentPersonalIncomeAggregateEconomicPerformancePRESENTANDHISTORICALPOWERREQUIREMENTSFUTUREPOWERNEEDSSummaryofChangesForecastMethodologyPopulationandEconomicActivity'ForecastDevelopmentAssumptions,1975-2000DevelopmentAssumptions,2000-2025,ForecastResultsUtilitySectorNationalDefenseSectorSelf-SuppliedIndustriesSectorCreditforEnergyandCapacityTHESELECTEDPLANPowerCapabilitiesSeasonalReservoirOperationECONOMICANALYSISCosts-TheBaseCaseHydropowerBenefitsPowerValuesandAlternativeCost~'NaturalGasAlternativeOil-FiredAlternativeDerivationofPowerBenefits-TheBaseCaseOtherBenefitsRecreationF1oodControlEmploymentIntertie409Page412413413413413414415416420422422423423424432442443444445449458458459464464464464467474·475476476476476479 TABLEOFCONTENTS(cont)ItemPlanJustification-Base CaseSensitivityofProjectJustificationComparabilityTestAlternateOiscountRates·VariationsintheLoadForecastandProjectTimingConstructionDelaysAlternateInvestmentCostEstimateson-FiredThermalA1ternativeIhflationFuelEscalationFuelCostAssumptionsTestResultsSummaryLISTOFTABLESPage4814B3483483485486486487488490492493493NumberC-lC-2C-3C-'4C-5C-6C-7C-8C-9C-10C-llC-12C-13C-14C-15C-16C-17C-18C-19C-2{)C-21C-22C-23TitleStudyAreaPopulationasPercentofTotalIndustryEmploymen~SharesTotalPersonalIncomeinAlaskaAlaskaEconomicIndicatorsSummaryofExistingGeneratingCapacityNear-termPlannedResourcesHistoricalNetGenerationDevelopmentAssumptionsPopulationEstimatesPerCapitaUseProjectionsSelf-SuppliedIndustrySectorAssumptionsTotalPowerandEnergyRequirementsAnchorage-CookInletAreaPowerandEnergyRequirementsFairbanks-TananaValleyAreaPowerandEnergyRequirementsUsableCapacityandEnergy,BaseCaseAt-SitePowerCapabilitiesAt-MarketPowerCapabtlityAnnualCostComputationsCookInletNaturalGasBalanceCookInletNaturalGasReservesandCommittments1976AlaskaGasUseManpowerExpendituresIntertieCapacityBenefits410414415416418420421421433.442443.445446447448455458459465470472473477481 <NumberC-24C-25C-26C-27LISTOFTABLES(cont)TitleAverageAnnualCostsAverageAnnualBenefitsPlanJustificationInflationAdjustmentMultipliersLISTOFFIGURESPage482482482489NumberC~lC-2C-3C-4C-5C-6C-7C-8C-9C-10fC-llNumberc-1C-2NumberC-lC-2C-3C-4C-5C-6C-7TitlePageLoadForecastCompar;son'422DevilCanyonandWatanaUnitMaximumPerformances452AnnualHead-DurationCurve,WatanaReservoir453LoadsandResources456MarketableEnergy457OperatingLevels,WatanaReservoir461SpillFrequencyDiagram463TransmissionLineCapacityCredit480PlanJustificationUnderAlternateDiscountRates484SensitivitytoInflationandEscalation-Coal-FiredAlternative494SensitivitytoInflationandEscalation-Oil-FiredAlternative495LISTOFPLATESTitleReservoirOperationandEnergyOutput,WatanaReservoirOperationandEnergyOutput,DevilCanyonEXHIBITSTitleLoad-ResourceAnalysesLoad-ResourceGraphsUsableCapacitySummaryPowerValueCalculationsPowerBenefitCalculationsInvestmentCostCalculationsCorrespondence411 SUMMARYOFCHANGESThissectionupdatesbenefitcalculationsandthedeterminationoftheproject'seconomicjustificationpresentedtnthe1976InterimFeasibilityReport.Economictrendsandpowerusagecontinuetoindi-catethatsignificantamountsofnewgenerationw.i1lberequiredintherailbeltareaofsouthcentral:"Alaska.Anewloadforecastingmethodology·andthethreeadditional.yearsofhistorica·ldataresultinslightlydecreasedpeakloadprojections.Theestimatedcostsofboththehydroelectricprojectandthecoal-firedalternativehaverisensignificantlysince1975.Underthebasecasesetofassumptions,.hydroelectricdevelopmentintheupperSusitnaRiverbasincontinues·toappeareconomicallyjustified.The1978updatedbenefit-costratiooftheproposeddev,elopmentisl.4comllaredtothe.earlierestimateof1.3.412 STUDYAREAECONOMYSUMMARYOFCHANGES~>theeconomicbaseanalysispresentedinthe1976.InterimFeasibilityReportwasbasedonthemarketarea'seconomicperformancethrough1974.Fearsofaseverepost-pipelinedepressioninAlaskahavebeenlargelydissipatedbythesustainedperformanceoftheState1seconomyinthe2yearssincethepipelinephaseddownin1976.In1977,higherpro-ductionlevelswerereachedint.heforestproducts,fisheries,and.'agriculturalindu'strieswhencomparedto1976.TheState'sfinancialinstitutionsreachedrecordhighlevelsin1977indeposits,loans,andtotalassets.Inaddition,morehousesandcommercialandindus-trialbuildingswereconstructedin197Tthanduringanypreviousyear.Infact,byexcludingcontractconstructionemployment(underwhichpipelineworkerswereclassified),thereappearstohavebeenanetincreasein1977of1,500nonagriculturaljobsinAlaska.INTRODUCTIONThediscussionthatfollowsbothaugments'andupdatestheeconomicbaseanalysisofthe1976report.Itisbasedonthreeprimarysources.Oneisadetailedana1ysisofthesouthcentralAlaskaeconomybetween1965and1975.ThisworkwasdonebytheInstituteofSocialandEconomicResearchoftheUniversityofAlaskafortheSouthcentralLevelBStudy.Twootherreports,onebytheState'sDepartmentofCommerceandEconomicDevelopmentandtheotherbytheDepartmentofLabor,provideinformationontheperformanceoftheeconomysince1975.Someofthepopulationandincomeestimatesthrough1974'presentedheredifferfromtheestimatesreportedinthe1976InterimFeasibilityReport.Thesedifferencesresultfrom'recenteffortSbytheStateandotherstodevelopaconsistentdatabase.HUMANRESOURCESTherapideconomicgrowthintheRailbeltareaofAlaskaandinAlaskaasawholehasresultedinsubstantialimmigrationofpeopleseekingjobsintheAlaskaneconomy.TableC-lsummarizespopulationgrowthinthestudyareaandinthestateasawhole.'413 STUDYAREAPOPULATIONASPERCENTOFTOTALYear';'J96(f19701973197419751976TotalAlaska226,167302,361330,365351,159404,634413,289StudyArea149,186209,178234,768245,846290,522301,250PercentofTotal666971707273Source:StateofAlaskaDepartmentofCommerceandEconomicDevelopment,TheAlaskanEcononlYtYear-EndPerformanceReport1977.Therearetwomajoreconomicmotivatingfactorswhichexplainthelargepopulationincrease.OneisthefactthatrealincomeshavebeenrisinginAlaskafasterthantherateintheU.S.asawhole.ThisisanindicationthatAlaskahasbeenaregionofimprovingetonomicopportunityincomparisontonationwideaverages.Inaddition,indi-vidualsseeexplicitopportunitiesinthegrowthinemployment.JjTheAlaskaDepartmentOfLaborestimatesthatnetmigrationaccountedfora73,000increaseinresidentpopulationbetween1970and1975,about72perc;entoftheincrease,whilenaturalincreaseaccountedforonly29,000,or.about28percentofthetotal.EMPLOYMENTEmploymentsharesofmajorindustriaLcategories,arepresentedinTableC-2.Ascanbe'seen,somesignificant·changesinemploymentpercentageshavetakenplaceoverthepast5years.'In1973,govern-mentclaimedbyfarthelargestshare(38percent)oftotalemploymentwithservicesandretailtradeadistantsecondat14percent.By1978,Government'ssharedeclinedto30percent.Manufacturingistheonlyothersectortoshowasignificantdecline-itssharedropsfrom'8.5percentto7percent.Mining,constructi-on,andservicesshowthelargestgains.11InstituteforSocialandEconomicResearch,UniversityofAlaska,SouthcentralAlaska'sEconomy1965-75,draftreport.414 1978(Projection)3.067.1130.4910.0214.023.40'4.872.462.460.783.862.402.400.92TABLEC-2INDUSTRYEMPLOYMENTSHARES(Percent)19731.798.5037.757.0913.603.10IndustryMiningManufacturingGovernmentConstructionRetailTradeWholesaleTradeFinance,InsuranceandRealEstateTransportationCommunicationsPublicUtilitiesSource:AlaskaDepartmentofLabor,AlaskaEconomicOutlookto1985,July1978.Datafor1977indicatesthatwhilethemid-yearcompletionofthetrans-AlaskaoilpipelinehadanimpactontheState'seconomy,ithasnotbeenassevereasexpected.Asaresultofthelargedecreaseincontractconstructionemployment,totalnonagriculturalemploymentdeclinedaccordingly.Thedeclineinnonagriculturalemployment,however,waslessthanthatofcontractconstruction,indicatingapreviouslyunexpectedeconomicstability.PERSONALINCOMETotalpersonalincomeisdefinedasthesumofwageandsalaryincome,proprietor'sincome,dividends,interestandrentalincome,andtransferpayments.Subtractedfromthisarepersonalcontributionsforsocialinsurance.Oncetotalpersonalincomeiscompiled,itisthenadjustedbytheresidencyoftheworker.Fromstatehoodin1959through1973,therehasbeenstablegrowthintheState'spersonalincome,parallelingthenationaltrends.Alaska'spercapitaincomeestimateincreased86percentfrom$2,49841569-7380 -80-27 in1959to$4,644in1970whilethe·u.S...averagerose83percentfrom$2,167to$3,966respectively'~~ring"thi~sametim:pe~iod.T~i~trendcontinuedthrough197~w,thAlaskaspercapltalncomerlslnganadditional28percentwhilethe:nationa1levelrose27percent.r~"\SiriceT971percapitaincomeinAlaskahasdemonstratedaphenome-nalrateofgrowth.In1974itincreased17percentto$7,117whilein1975thereportedincreasewas33percentto$9,440.During1976theannualrateofincreaseslowedconsiderablyto10percent,boostingpercapitaincometo$10,415.Correspondingly,onthenationallevelitincreased9percentin1974,8percentin1975,and9percentin1976.Clearly,Alaska'sresidentpersonalincomehasincreasedsubstan-tiallythepastfewyears.TheState'seconomyhasreceivedatremen-dousboostfromconstructionoftheoilpipeline,Nativelandclaims,outercontinentaloildevelopment,andgovernmentexpenditures.Withthecompletionoftheoilpipeline,personalincomeofAlaskansisinitiallydeclininginrealterms.Asadditionalprojectscomeonlineinthefuture,therateofgrowthinrealpersonalincomewillagainturnpositive.TABLEC-3TOTALPERSONALINCOMEINALASKA,1970-1977Year19701971197219731974197519761977PersonalIncome"(Inbillionsof$)1.31.51.61.92.4.3.33.83.9Source:AlaskaDepartmentofCommerceandEconomicDevelopment,TheAlaskaEconomy,Year-EndPerformanceReport1977.AGGREGATEECONOMICPERFORMANCEIthasgen~allybeenassumedthatthereexistedadirectcauseandeffectrelationshipbetweenpipelineconstructjonandtheState's416 economicexpansion.Preliminarydatafor1977indicatethatwhilepipelineconstructionemploymentdeclinedduringtheyear,-itdidnottriggermassivelayoffsinothernonpipe1inesectorsoftheState'seconomy.Indeed,evenwithanannualaveragelossof11,300construc-tionworkers,totalemploymentinAlaskafor1977declinedbyonlyabout9,700workers,orlessthan6percent,fromthehistorichighlevelin1976.RefertoTableC-4..Obviously,therehavebeenotherfactorsWhichhavecontributedsignificantlytotheState'srecenteconomicexpansion.BytheendofSeptember1977,over$348millionhadpassedthroughtheAlaskaNativeFundtotheNativecorporations.Ofthisamount,aconsiderablepor-tionhadbeeninvestedinAlaskabusinessesandindustry.Inaddition,publicsectorexpendituresbyFederal,State,andlocalgovernmentshavedemonstrateddramaticincreasesinrecentyears,andmineralexplorationactivityhascontinuedatastrongpace~Theseandothersourcesofnonpipe1ineeconomicstimulationhaveoccurredduringthepipelineconstruc.tiontimeperiodandtheyappeartohaveplayedasignificantroleinexpandingandstrengtheningAlaska'seconomy.Theforestproductsindustry,afterconsiderableexpansionin1976fromthepreviousdepressedlevels,maintainedastablehighlevelofactivityin1977.Pulpandlumberproductionremainedconstantin1977althoughtheproductionofwoodchipsdeclinedsignificantlyasaresultofworldmarketconditions~Japan,themajorpurchaserofAlaska'sforestproducts,continuestobehamperedbytheslowrecoveryofitsnationaleconomy,especiallyinitsresidentialhousingsector.TheState'scommercialfisheriesindustrygreatlysurpassedallexpectationsduring1977.Thesalmonharve~twasthehighest since1970withstrongreturnsofpinksalmontothesouthernportion ofsoutheastAlaskaandwithgoodreturnstomostotherareasoftheState.Generally,theshellfishharvestandpricespaidtofishermenwerehigherthanin1976.Asaresultoftheoverallincreasesin1977'sfinandshe·llfishharvest,higheremploymentlevelswerestimulatedintheState'sfishprocessingsector.Investmentinhardrockmineralexplorationincreasedsubstantiallyduring1977toan~stimatedrecordhighof$60million.Oilexplorationcontinuedwith33wildcatandstep-outwellsdrilledin1977,represent-ingnearlyathreefoldincreaseinactivityoverthe1976total.Majoroildiscoverieswereannounced.in'1977atPointThompsonandFlaxmanIsland(locatedeastofPrudhoeBay),indicatingthepossibilityofadditionalNorthSlopeoilandgasfieldsofsignificantscale.InOctober1977,theLowerCookInletleasesalewasheldinAnchorage.417 TABLE C-4 ALASKA ECONOMIC .INDICATORS .Iioo-OCI 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977e Resident Population (000)..•••.302.4 312.9 324.3 330.4 351.2 404.6 413.3 N.A. Civilian Labor Force #(000)~•••.87.2 92.9 98.6 103.8 119.5 148.5 158.0 158.9 Employment #(000).•••••••••81.1 85.4 90.5 95.2 110.3 138.5 145.0 136.4 Nonagricultural Employment (000)••.92.5 97.6 104.2 109.9 128.2 161.3 171.7 162.0 Number Unemployed #(000).••••••6.0 7.5 8.0 8.6 9.2 10.0 ''13.0 20.5 Wage &Salary Payments ($000,000).•$1,253 $1,359 $1,471 $1,621 $2,167 $3,449.$4,247 $3,737 Resident PersoYlal Income *($000,000).$1 ,412 $1,563 $1,698 $2,006 $2,429 $3,443 $3,979 $4,000 Anchorage CPI (1967 =100).•••••109.6 112.6 115.9 120.8 133.9 152.3 164.1 175.7 Percent Change in CPI • . • . . • . .3.5 3.0 2.7 4.2 10.9 13.8 7.8 7.1 N.A.=Not Available e =Estimate #=Current Population Survey Basis *=Place of Residence Basis Source:Alaska Department of Commerce and Economic Development,The Alaska EconomY,Year-End Performance Report 1977. '.>'~':"):'i'.':':,';:'J'{'~,;~~£i~~~;q!fV"t)jf4tfi.iH¢"'"1rt,jtt";"~ltttd AlthoughdrillingresultsintheGulfofAlaskahavebeendisappoint-ingtodate,otheroilandgasexplorationactivitiesarecontinuingontheNationalPetroleumReserveAlaska(oldPET-4)andonNativecorporationlands.419 PRESENTANDHISTORICALPOWER·REQUIREMENTSThissectionpresentstheexistingandplannedgeneratingcapacitiesoftherailbeltareaasof1977alongwithgeneratingresourcesthatareplannedforthenearfuture.Alsoshownarethehistoricalnetgenerationestimatesthrough1977.TABLEC-5SUMMARYOFEXISTINGGENERATINGCAPACITYInstalledCapacity(MW)GasSteamHydroDieselTurbineTurbineTotalAnchorage-CookInletArea:Uti1itySystern45.027.5435.114.5522.1NationalDefense9.240.549.7Self-SuppliedIndustries11.315.237.564.0SUBTOTAL45.048.0450.392.5635.8Fairbanks-TananaValleyArea:UtilitySystems35.1203.153.5291.7NationalDefense14.063.077.0SUBTOTAL---049:T203.1116.5368.7TOTAL45.097.1653.4209.01004.5Source:AlaskaPowerAdministration,"PowerMarketAnalysis,"January1979.Anchorage-CookInletfiguresincludetheVa1dez-Glennallenareawhichtotals56.8MW.Thetotal1977installedcapacityof1,004.5MWrepresentsa45percentincreaseoverthe692MWofinstalledcapacitythatexistedin1974.420 InstalledCapacity(MW)TABLEC-6NEAR-TERMPLANNEDRESOURCESGasSteamYearTurbine.TurbineTotal66.7113.7100.018.0100.0400.0418.0400.0816.4104.0104.0504.0920.466.7113.7100.018.0100.018.0416.4416.41982197819791980-198119821984TOTALSUBTOTAL~nchorage-CookInletUtilitiesFairbanks-TananaValleyUtilitiesSource:BattellePacificNorthwestLaboratories,"A1askanElectricPower:AnAnalysjsofFutureRequirementsandSupplyAlter-nativesfortheRailbeltRegion,"March1978.TABLEC-7HISTORICALNETGENERATION(GWH)Anchorage-CookInletAreaFairbanks-TananaValleyAreaYearUtilNat.DefIndu.UtilNat.DefInduTotal1970744.11971886.919721,003.819731,108.519741,189.719751,413.019761,615.319771,790.1156.2161.2166.5160.6155.1132.8140.3130.61.725.0(e)1I45.345.3(e)45.345.3(e)45.3(e)69.5239.3275.5306.7323.7353.8450.8468.5482.9203.5201.4203.3200.0197.0204.4217.5206.81,344.81,550.01,725.61,838.11,940.92,246.3-2,486.92,679.911(e):estimatedindustrialload,revisedbyAPA,January1979.Source:APA,UpperSusitnaProjectMarketabilityAnalysis,November1978. FUTUREPOWERNEEDSSUMMARYOFCHANGESTheforecasteddemandforelectricalpowerpresentedinthissectionconstitutesadownwardrevisionfromthoseestimatesusedinthe1976InterimFeasibilityReport.Thecumulativechangesareduetotheuseofadifferentforecastmethodology,3additionalyearsofhistoricaldata,andgenerallymoreconservativeeconomicdev,e1opmentassumptions.Theextentofchangeintheforecasts,however,isnotgreat.Forinstance,themidrangeforecastofpeakloadfortheyear2000hasbeenrevisedto2,852MW,a10percentdecreasefromtheearlierestimateof3,170MW(refertoFigureC-1).Themostnoticeablechangeoccursinthehighrangeforecastwhichwasreduced36percentintheyear2000.Additionally,therevisedforecasthasbeenextendedanadditional25yearsto2025inordertofacilitatelongerrangeplanning.O--....---l------.'---·---,.r------"r-------"r--------...1'74158085'0.•520"'0LOADFORECASTCOHPARISON(MediumGrowth)./..../.''1978FORECAST./.-../...",...",...."""...."""...~....p.O::=:::'HISTORIC//..'/.'./../..'.FORECAST/••'/.'1975FigureC-I:1000c<{o..J~<{wa..1000-2000~6TIMEINYEARS422 FORECASTMETHODOLOGYTheAlaskaPowerAdministration(APA)hasusedasimplifiedend-usemodeltoforecastfuturepowerrequirements,augmentedbytrendanalysisandaneconometricmodel.Totalpowerdemandhasbeencategorizedintothreeprimaryenduses:theresidential/commercial/industrialloadssuppliedbyelectricutilities,thenationaldefenseinstallationsector,andtheself-suppliedindustrialcomponent.Thosefactorsineachcategorythatbestexplainhistoricaltrends'inenergyusewereidentified.Intheutilitysector,thoseexplanatoryvariablesarepopulationandpercapitause.Populationwasforecastedwiththehelpofacommitteeofexpertsusingaregionaleconometricmodel,whilepercapitauseeStimatesar&anextrapolationofpasttrendsadjustedtoaccountforanticipateddeparturesfromthosetrends.Nationaldefenseneedsareassumedtodependonthelevelofmilitaryactivityandthenumberofmilitarypersonnelinthestudyarea.Futureself-suppliedindustrialpowerrequirementsarebasedonexplicitassump-tionsregardingfutureeconomicdevelopmentandtheenergyneedsassocia-tedwithsuchdevelopment.POPULATIONANDECONOMICACTIVITYFORECASTThemostimportantsectorintermsofmagnitudeofelectrical.energyuseistheutilitysector,andpopulationisthekeyfactorinthissector'sfuturepowerrequirements.Populationforecastsinturn,arehighlydependentuponassumptionsof'futureeconomicactivity.Economicactivityassumptionsarealsoimportantbecausetheyhaveadirectimpactonenergyrequirementsintheself-suppliedindustrialsector.Thepopulationandeconomicactivityassumptionsusedinthisfore-castarebasedonadraftreportoftheEconomicsTaskForce,South-centralAlaskaWaterResourcesStudy,datedSeptember18,1978.Thereportisentitled,SouthcentralAlaska'sEconomyandPopulation,1965-2025:ABaseStudyandProjection.Thereportwasajointeffortofeconomists,planners,andagencyexpertswhoweremembersoftheEconomicsTaskForceoftheSouthcentra1AlaskaWaterResourcesStudy(LevelB),beingcOhductedbytheAlaskaWaterStudyCommittee,ajointcommitteeofFederalandStateagencies,theAlaskaFederationofNatives,theAlaskaMunicipalLeagu.e,theMunic.ipalityofAnchorage,theSouthcentralregionboroughgovernments,andregipnalNativecorporations.Theprojectionsreportedreliedontwolong-runeconometricmodelsdevisedbyeconomistsfromtheUniversityofAlaskaInstituteofSocial423 andEconomicResearchandfromtheMIT-HarvardJointCenterforUrbanStudies.FundingwasproviedbytheNationalScienceFoundation1sManintheArcticProgram(MAP).ThetwospecificmodelsusedhereweremodificationsoftheAlaskaStateandregionalmodelsdevelopedunderthatprogram.Themodelsproducedestimatesofgrossoutput,employ-ment,income,andpopulationfortheyears1975-2000.Populationandemploymentweredisaggregatedandextrapolatedto.theyear2025byISERresearchersunderEconomicsTaskForcedirection,andusingTaskForceconcensusmethodology.ThedatarequiredtorunthemodelwereprovidedbyvariousmembersoftheEconomicsTaskForce,theassumptionswerereviewedbytheTaskForce,andthemodeloutputsandtentativepro-jectionswerereviewed.forinternalconsistencyandplausibilitybyISERresearchersandbytheTaskForce.Theuseoftheeconometricmodelrequiresaset.ofassumptionsrelatedtothelevelandtimingofdevelopment.Theassumptionspri-marilyconsist,oftimeseriesonemploymentandoutputincertainoftheexport-baseindustriesandingovernment.Becauseoftheimportanceoftheseassumptionstotheelectricalenergyloadforecast,theyarepresentedhereinfullonpagesC-13throughC-3lfromtheEconomicTaskForceReport.AssumptionsUsedtoProduceEconomicandPopulationProjections,1975-2000Thecriticalassumptionsareorganizedintotwoscenarioswhichconsistofalllow-rangeassumptionstakentogetherand,alternatively,allhigh-rangeassumptionstakentogether.Thescenarios~ereintendedtoshowa"reasonable"highandreasonablelowdevelopmentseriesofspecificprojectswhichtogetherwouldofferaboutthebroadestrangeofemploymentandpopulationoutcom~swhichcouldbeforeseen.ThisdoesnotmeanthattheTaskForcepredictsthatalloranyoftheprojectsassumedwillactuallyoccur;onthecontrary,thereisahighlyvariabledegreeofuncertaintywithrespecttothelevelandtimingofalldevelopmentsinthescenarios.However,someprojectsweresubjec-tivelyratedmorelikelythanothers,someunlikely,andsomeveryunlikely.TaskForceconsensusassignedmostofthemorelikelyprojectstothelowdevelopmentscenario,someofthelesslikely·tothehighdevelopmentscenario,andtheremainderwereassumednottooccurwithinthetimehorizonofthestudy.Theresultinglowandhighscenariosshouldnotbeconsideredsynonymsfortheterms"minimum"and"maximum"developmenr:-TheTaskForcedidnotfeelcompetenttosaywhatthetheoreticalminimumormaximumpossiblelevelofeconomicdevelopmentinSouthcentralAlaskamightbe,sincethiscouldbeinfluencedbyGovernmentpolicyatFederal,State,andlocallevelsandbymarketdevelopmentsbeyondthepowerofanyonetopredictatthistime;norwouldthatexercisehavebeenofmuchusetoplanners.424 Inthelowcase,publicpriorityisgivento"national"and"public"interestinesthetic,recreational,subsistence,andwildernessvalues,tendingtoreducetheamountoflandavailableforcropsandreducingtheaccessand'usabilityoflandforagriculture.Inaddition,publicagriculturalagenciesandinstitutionswhichsupportagricultureareallowedtoatrophy.Inthiscase,andwithmarketconditionscontinuingtobeunfavorabletoAlaskanagriculture,thesouthcentralindustryout-putandcommercialemploymentdropstozeroasthelandissubdividedforhomesitesandrecreationaluse.Valueofcommercialoutputdropstozeroby1991,withonly"amenity"(part-time,partlysubsistence)outputremaining.Forestry:AggregatedinStatestatisticsunderAgriculture-Forestry-Fisheries,thisisatinysectorwhichemploysabout22peoplestatewide.Virtuallyallemploymentinloggingoccursinlumberandwoodproductsmanufacturing.Valueaddedislikewisenegligible.Inthehighcase,thissectorgrowsinproportiontogrowthinlumberandwoodproducts.Inthelowcase,itstaysatcu.rrentlevels.425 Fisheties:Thefisheriessectorprimarilyconsistsofpersonsactuallyengagedinfishing,butitistroublesomeforseveralreasons.Itisdifficulttocountfishermensincethisisanindustryinwhichproprietorsdomuchofthework,oftenwithunpaidfamilyhelp,theworkisseasonalinnature,andmanyout-of-statepersonstakepart.ThiscausestheState'semp1eymentstattstics,basedonemploymentcoveredbyunemploymentinsurance,tobemisleading.Likewise,multiplelicensesandunfishedlicensesmakeftshermanlicensesamisleadingindicator.Area-of-catchstat1'sticscollectedonfishlandedinAlaSka,togetherwithindependentdataoncrewsize,bygeartype,gtveaprettygoodpictureoftotalpersonsactuallyengagedinfishing.Forsouthcentra1Alaska(butincludingtheAleutianchain),annualaverageemploymentonthisbasisisabout2,000pers'ons,whileitwas4,359statewidein1975.Inthehighcase~itisassumedthatiiiexistingfisheries,expans1'onofftshingproductivitywouldbeoffsetbylimitedentryandlabor-savingimprovementsinthefleet,leavingemploymentconstantatexistinglevelsdesptteafourfoldincreaseinthesalmoncatch.However,givenveryfavorableconditions,majordevelopmentoftheAmericantrawlfisheryoffAlaska'scoastcouldresultin100per-centreplacementofthefore,~gnfishingeffortinsidethe200-milelimitbytheyear2000,employingabout17.5thousandpersonsinfishingstate-wideand8.7thousand(or50percent)insouthcentra1.Thiswasconsid-eredtobeaveryspeculativedevelopment;consequently,nobottomfishingdevelopmentwasconsideredinthelowcase,whileexistingfisheriesjustmaintainedcurrentemployment.Outputlevelofexistingfishertesinthehighcaseexpandsconsider-ably,sincetheStateisassumedtoundertakeanaggressivehatcheryandhabitatimprovementprogram,togetherwiththe200-mi1eeconomiczone.Thecombinedeffectisassumedtobeaquadrup1in.gofsalmoncatch,whileshellfishremainataboutexistinglevels.Theexpansionofthetrawlfisherywasassumedtoresultinasouthcentralcatchof1.85billionpoundsperyear,worth$361million.e~<vesse1inthehigh,case.Inthelowcase,allfisheriesmaintaintheir.approximate1975levels.Mining,IncludingOilandGas:Theminingsectorisdominatedbyemploymentandoutputinoilandgas,withlesseramountsincoal,sand,andgravel,andafewpersonsengagedinpreciousmetalexplorationandextraction.FortheStateasaWhole,oilandgasdevelopmentsareexpectedtodwarfallotherconsiderationsinthisindustry.Withinsouthcentra1Alaska,animportantlocalissue1'sthedevelopmentoftheBelugacoalfield.Thedevelopmentsinmininginthehighcaseareassumedtobeasfollows:Thereisasmallf1'ndofhydrocarbonsintheNorthernGulfofAlaska,butnoimportantproduction.Ifthemeanexpectedreservesare426 foun~,peakproductionwouldbea~out932thQ~sa~dbarr~lso.foilper.day1n1985,andpeakgasproductlonof0.5bllllonCUblCfeetperdayin.1987.TheSadlerochit,KuparukRiver,andLisburneformationsatPrudhoeBayallcomb.ineinthehigh(casefora1,785millionbarrelsldayflowofoilin1985.Inaddit-tOn,thejointState/Federaloffshoreleasesaleisassumedtocontainoilandgasresourcesequivalenttototalreservesof1.9billtonbarrels.Therearealso·twoleasesales--intheNorthernGulfofAlaska(Sale55)andWesternGUlf/Kodiakarea(Sale46)--whichresultinmoderatesizedoilfinds.·Peakoilproduc-tionintheNorthern-Gulfis~about0.550milHonbarrelsperdayin1986,and0.515millionbarrelsperdayin1992intheWesternGulf.Dailygasproductionpeaksat1.0bcf/dayintheNorthernGulfand0.26bcf/dayintheWesternGulf.Coalproductioninthehighcasewouldbeginin1983,withfull-scaleminingof730,000tonsofcoalperyearby1984tofeedamine-mouthpowerplant,twicethatamountby1986tofeed. asecondplant,anddevelopmentof6milliontons/yearexportsby1990~Inthehighcase,employmentpeaksatslightlyover9,000in1984,subsequentlydecliningto8,200in1995,whileout.putrisesto$3.·2billion(constant1958dollars.!.!),tailingoffto$2.6billion.LowcaseoilandgasdevelopmentbasicallyconsistsofdevelopmentatoraroundPrudhoeBay.Thereisexplorationinalltheareasnotedinthepreviouscase,butexplorationturnsupfarfewerprospectsworthdeveloping.WhiletheKuparukandLisburnearedevelopedinthiscaseandthereisajointoffshoresale,theBeaufortsaleturnsuponly0.8billionbarrelsofreservesinsteadof1.9billion.ThelowerCookInletturnsuponlyasmallfind,whilethenorthernandwesternregionsoftheGulfofAlaskaaredryandresultin"explorationonly"employment.Belugacoalisnotdevelopedinthelowcase.Asaresultofallthis,statewidepeakemploymentinminingrisestoabout7,000in1984,droppingtolessthan4,800bytheendofthecentury.Withintheregion,explorationplusdevelopmentofoilandgasemploy·almost4,800personsby1984inthehighcase,decliningto·almostone-fourththatnumberby1993.Belugacoaladds-about220workersby1990,theHrstyearof.coalexport.Inthelowcase,thepeakemploymentisonly2,700personsin1984,thepeakyear,declinessharplythereafter,andlevelsoffat1,200after1987•.FoodManufacturing:ThefoodmanufacturingindustryinAlaskaisdominatedbyseafoodprocessing,asituationwhichi~notexpectedtochangeinthenearfurure.Inthehighcase,theprojectedfourfoldincreaseintheoutputofthesalmonfish~riesimpliesaboutadoubling.!.!The1958baseyearwasusedforconveniencesinceU.S.DepartmentofCommerceestimatesofgrossproductwereinterms.of1958dollarswhenthestudybegan.427 inemploymentrequiredtoprocessthesalmon.Sinceitwasthecon-sensusoftheTaskForcethatshellfishareatornearmaximumsustainedyield,theoverallprocessing.plantemploymentforexistingfisheriesisprojectedtoincreaseabout25percent.Alsointhehighcase,bytheyear2000the100percentreplacementofforeignbottomfisheffortoffAlaskaresultsinacatchof3.7m11lionmetrictonsperyear,requiringestimatedtotalprocessingemploymentofabout12,000andshort-term(5-month)seasonalemploymentof21,21l--foranannualaverageof21,000by2000.However,weassumedthatonlyaboutone-thirdoftotalcatchwouldbeprocessedinAlaskashore-basedfacilities,resultingintotalAlaskashore-basedemploymentof3,759,halfofwhomareemployedinsouthcentral,andaffectthelocaleconomY.Theremainderofthe21,000workonprocessingvesselsnearShoreandoff-shore,buttheirincomesprobablywouldaffecttheAnchorageeconomyandthestatewideeconomYtosomedegree.Outputforthisindustrywasestimatedbytakingtheexpectedexvesselvalueandusingthehistoricratioofexvesse1towholesalevalue,andtheratioofvalue-addedtowholesalevalue.Inthehighcases,thevalueofcatchinexistingfisherieswasassumedtoriseatthesamerateastotalcatch,yielding$145mi11ioninvalueaddedin2000,whi1ecatchif)theemergenttrawlfisherywasassumedtO,riseto$722million(3.7millionmetrictons),yielding'about$167millionofvalueaddedinprocessing(allvalueaddedinconstant1958dollars).Inthelowcase,agrowthrateof1percentperyearwasprojectedfortotaloutput,yielding$81.5millionperyearvalue-addedby2000..Lumberand·WoodProductsManufacturing:ThetwocriticalassumptionsforthisindustryaretheannualcutoftimberintheState,determinedmostlybyForestServiceallowablecutandJapanesemarketconditions,andwhetheranydimensionsawmillsarebuiltinAlaska.Inthehigh·case,theannualcutbytheyear2000wasassumed'tobe1,260millionboardfeet(probablypartlyfromNative1ands),comparedwith660-millionin1970.Inthelowcase,theincreaseistoonly960million.Nonewmi·llsarebuiltineithercase.Whilenotexactlyproportional,theincreaseinemploymentissimilar:inthehighcase,statewideemploymentrisesto3,834from2,176in1975;inthelowcase,theriseisfrom2,176to3,280.Theoutputofthisindustrywasestimatedbycalculatingthe1975ratioofoutputperemployee.Thiswasassumedtoescalateatits1965-1975'rateofgrowthinthehighcase(about1.66percent),butstayedat1975levelsinthelowcase.Sincealmostalltheprimetimberlikelytobeexploitedbyanexpandingindustryislocatedoutsidethesouthcentralregion,weassumedthatoutsideofAnchorage,theemploymentoffirmsinthissectorwouldescalatebyabout1percentperyearinthelowcase,by2.3percentperyearinthehighcase,whichisabout~hesameorlessthanthestatewiderates.EmploymentwasassumedconstantinAnchorage.428 Pu1pandPaperMa,nufacturing:Thegrowthinthissectorisdeterminedb.y':mostofthesamefactorsaslumberandwoodproducts.'InneithercaseisthereapulpmillbuiltinsouthcentralA1aska,'sothereisnoemploymentor'output;'nthissectorwithintheregion.IntheState,theincreaseintotalcutresultsinaverageemploymentincreasesofabout1.6percentperyear;nthe1owcas'e,1.8percentperyearinthehigh,resultingintotalsof1,777and1,886,respectively.Inthelowcase,productivityperworkerremainsatits1975value;inthehighcase,itincreasesat2.76percentannually,its1965-1975rate,resultinginvalueaddedof$88.2mlllionand$93.6million,respectively,intheyear2000.OtherManufacturing:Thissectorisanoddmixtureofawidevarietyofcottageindustrtes,printingandpublishing,andconsumergoodsmanufacture;togetherwithafewmajorpetrochemicalplantsandrefin-eries.Themajorpossibles'ourcesofnewemploymentinthissectorwereassumedtobetheAlpetcoroyaltyoilrefinery-petrochemicalcomplex,AlaskaPacificLNGplant,andwhateverotherLNGorgastreatmentfacilitiesmightbeas'sociatedwithgasoutputfromlowerCookInletandtheGulfofAlaska.Inthehighcase,thetotaloperatingemploymentofthesefacilitieswasabout2,000persons(mostlyworkingforAlpetco).Inthelowcase,theonlysourcewasPacificLNG,employingabout60persons.Statewideoutpl,JtinthissectorwasmoreofaproblemsinceitwasunclearhowmuchtheoutputtobeaddedbyanyoftheLNGplantsmightbe.It.wasdecidedtosubsumeLNGvalue-addedundermining,andinthehjghcase,value-addedinothermanufacturingwasestimatedastheexistinglevelofoutput,plustotalrevenuesofAlpetco,minuscostoffeedstocks,fromtheAlpetcoproformafinancialprojectionsofMarch10,1978.AllthegrowthwasenteredoutsideofAnchorage.Inthelowcase,theexistinglevelofoutputwasused..Construction:Formodelingpurposes,itwasonlynecessarytoestimatetotalemploymentworkingonmajorprojectsexogenoustotheeconomy,sincetherestofconstructionisprojectedwiththesupportsectorandoutputisdeterminedbyemploymentinthissectorinthemodels.Inthehighcase,thesignlficantprojectswithintheregionwereassumedtobeoiltreatmentandshipmentfacilitiesintheGulfofAlaskaandKodiaksubregionsandtheKenai-CookInletCensusDivision,smallLNGfacilitiesassociatedwiththeNorthernGulfandlowerCookInletdevelopment,aBelugacoaltransshipmentfacility,PacificLNGandAlpetcoplants,anda.newStatecapitalinWillow.Outsidetheregion-,thereisaugmentationofTAPSpipelinecapacity,thenorthwestAlaskagaspipelineisconstructed,andfielddevelopmentfacilitiesareprojectedfortheBeaufortSeaandtheKuparukandLisburneform-ations.Statewide,totalexogenousconstructionemploymentpeaksatatotalofabout14,000in1981,decliningrapidlythereaftertolessthan1,000by1991.Intheregion,thepeakemploymentisabitlessthan7,000in1981.429 Thelevelofconstructionemploymentwasconsiderablylessinthelowcase,bothbecauseoffewerdevelopmentsinoilandgas,andbecauseseveralprojectsneedingStatesupportdonotoccur,e.g,A1petcoandtheStatecapitalmove.Inthiscase,thenorthwestAlaskapipelineisconstructed,buttheoilfindsatPrudhoeBayoffshoreareasarerelativelysmall,asarethoseinlowerCookInlet.TheKuparukandLisburneformationsaredeveloped,andthePacificLNGplant;-sbuilt.However,thereisnonewsubstanti,a1augmentaUontofishprocessingintheformofnewplantstoprocessbottomfish.Inthe10wcase,state-widepeakemploymentinexogenousconstructionisabout9,500,whileintheregionitisabout1,800.FederalGovernment:FederalGovernmentemploymenthasbeengrowingverylittleoverthelast10years,withcivi'lianincreasesaboutoffsetbydecreasesinmnitaryemployment.Therateofcivi1ianincreasehasbeenabout0.5percentperyear,andlackingtheboostofanymassivedeve1~pmentsrequiringFederalsupport,andlackinganewStatecapital,thelikelyrateofincreaseinFederalcivilianemploymentforthelowcaseisassumedtoremainat0.5percent,increasingemploymentfrom18,000to21,000statewide,andfrom10,900to12,250intheregionby2000.Inthehighcase,generaldevelopmentresultsinadoubliogoftheaveragerateofincreasetoabout1percentperyearinFederalGovernmentinmostoftheState,and1.2percentperyearinsouth-centraltoreflecttheStatecapitalmove.ThisincreasesstatewideFederalcivilianemploymentfrom18,000to22,000,andregionalemploy-mentfrom10,900to14,500.Federalmilitaryemploymentisassumedtoremainconstantat1975levelsinboththeStateandregion.StateGovernment:StateGovernmentemploymentwentthroughseveralrevisionsbecauseofconcernaboutStatebudgets.Historically,therateofgrowthinthissectoraveraged8.5percentperyear,aratewhichmostTaskForcemembersbelievedwasunlikelytocontinue.Ontheotherhand,inthehighcasebottomfishdevelopment,majoroil'development,andt~emovingoftheStatecapitaltoWillowwerelikelytoresultinfairlysubstantialincreasesinStateemployment.Inthehighcase,itisassumedthat2,750positionsweretransferredfromJuneautoWillowandthattotalStateGovernmentemploymentwouldincreasefrom14,700toabout39,000intheyear2000,decliningfromaround7.6percentofcivilianwageandsalaryemploymenttoabout7.2percent.Intheregion,StateemploymentbulksfairlylargebecauseoftheStatecapitalmove,withthetotalfromAnchorageandothersouthcentra1combine(jmovingfrom5,400to14,900,orfrom5.2per.centto13.1per-centoftotalemployment.Inthelowcase,itwasassumedthatgovernmentgrowthwasrestrictedbylowerdevelopmentneeds,byfundi'ngconstraintsorpl\blicopinion,andbythefactthattheStatecapitaldidnotmove.Before1985,StateGovernmentemploymentgrowthwasheldtoabout2percentperyear,with430 zerogrowththereafter.Stateemploymentasaresultgoesfrom14,700inJ975to19,159in2000,about6.4percentofcivilianemploymentinthelatteryear.Intheregion,totalStateemploymentrisesfrom5,400to7,140in1985-2000,about6.1percentofcivilianemploymentin1975and3.1percentintheyear2000.LocalGovernment:Localgovernmentwasassumedtobeinfluencedinthefuturebymanyofthesamefactorsinfluenclngthe'rateofgrowthinStateemployment.Thehistoricratefrem1965to1975was10.5per-cent(10.1percentinsouthcentral),partlyaresultofdevelopmentofschoolsystemsandthetransferofState-operatedruralschoolsintheunorganizedboroug~tolocalcontrol.Duetoincreasingnumbersoffunctionsbeingperformeda'tthelocallevelandruraldevelopmentinthehighcase,statewidegrowthwasexpectedtobefasterthaninsouthcentra1,wherelocalgovernmentsarealreadywellorganized.DuetothemovingoftheStatecapitalanddueto localgovernmentresponsetofishingandoil,localgovernmentemploymentwasprojectedtosustainabouta 4percentperyeargrowthrateoutsidetheregionandabout3.4percentwithi!]thesouthcentra1region.Thismeantastatewideincreaseinlocalemploymentfrom14,200inJ975to34,900'in2000.Inthelowcase,sincetheStatecapitaldoesnotmoveandState-localtransfersareexpectedtobesharplycur.ta11edafter1985,theassumedratesofgrowthareabout2'percentuntil1985andabout1percentthereafter.Totalemploymentinlocalgovernmentgoesfrom14,200in1975to20,100in2000.Withintheregion,localgovernmentinthehighcasegrowsfromabout8,100toabout18,600.Inthelowcase,regional'localgovernmentemploymentgrowsfrom8,100to11,300.MiscellaneousAssumtions:Inthemodel,Alaskanwageratesaredeterm1neinmost1nustr1esasafunctionofAlaskanpricesandu.S.averageweeklywagesintheprivateeconomy,deflatedbytheU.S.ConsumerPriceIndexforUrbanClericallA/orkers.(BoththelatterseriesarepublishedbytheBureauofLaborStatistics.)AlaskanpricesareinturndeterminedasafunctionofU.S.pricesandlocaldemandconditions,reflectedbychangesinemployment.Finally,migrationtoAlaskaiscalculatedasafUf)ctionofthechangeinemploymentoppor-tunitiesandrelativepercapitaincomeinAlaska,comparedtotherestofthecountry.Inordertoprojecta"high"and1I10w"scenario,theeconomicsTask,Force,reexaminedtheassumptionsusuallyusedtorunthemodelforimpact-assessmentpurposesinAlaskaandconcludedthat"high"or"low"groWthcouldoccurbecauseofmovementsoftheeconomyoutsidetheStateaswellasinsidetheState.Inparticular,therat,esofgrO,wthofU.S.disposableP,erson,a,lincomepercaPi,ta,(2.,0percent)andwages(1.2percent)appearedabitoptimisticforthelowcase.Therefore,inthelowcase,"pessimistic".forecastsbyDataResources,Inc.wereused:l.0percentpera'nnumaverageincreaseinrealwages,and1.77percentaverageincreaseinrealdisposableper-sonalincomepercapita.Thesetwochangeshadlittleinfluence.43,169-7380 -80-28 ,Governmentexpendituresotherthanwagesandsalarfes:directlyinfluenceoutputintheconstructionsector.Toavoidhavingtomakeaseriesofcomplexassumptfonsofdoubtfulvalidityconcerninggovern-mentcapitalspendingprograms,theTaskForceassumedotherGovernmentspendingincreasedproportionatelytoGovernmentemployment.Finally,theTaskForcerecognizedthatsomeofthe'service,pub-1icutilities,andtransporati'onemploymentinthe,southcentralareawouldnotbelocal-servingemploymentatall.Particularly,employmentinthesesectorsforAlyeskaPipelineServiceCompanyandBelugacoalextractionwouldbeessentiallyexogenoustothelocaleconomy.Con-sequently,anexogenouscomponentwasaddedforemploymentinthesethreesectorstoadjustfortheemploymentbyAlyeskaandbyBeluga.TheseassumptionsaresummarizedinTableC-8.AssumptionsUsedtoEst.imateEmploymentandPopulations,2000-2025TheTaskForcewaschargedwithestimatingtotalemploymentandpopulationaftertheyear2000,buttheeconometricmodels'resultsweredOUbtfulthatfarinthefuture.TheTaskForceinsteaddevelopedsorneeducatedguessesconcerningtheAlaskaneconomyinthepost-2000,period,andthesewereusedtoextrapolatetheyear2000resultsto2025.Basically,thesamemethodologywasusedasabove.Thebasicsectoremploymentwasprojectedbyindividualindustry,arelationshipbetweennonbasicandbasicemploymentwasassumed,andthenarelationshipbetweenpopulationandemploymentassumedandprojected.Basicemploymemtwasprojectedasfollows:SincetherewerenosignificantadditionalprospectsforoildevelopmentinsouthcentralAlaskaafter2000,thissectorwasassumedtostabilizeatitsyear2000level,replacingoldfieldswithsomeadditionaldevelopment.Thiswastrueinbothcases.Exogenousconstructiontendstofollowoildevelopment.soit,to,o,wasleftatitsyear2000level.Federalcivilianemploymentcontinuedtogrowtoservetheexpandingpost-2000population;by1.2percentperyear-inthehighcaseand0.5-:0.6percentinthelowcase.·Stateandlocalgovernmentcontinuedtogrowattheratesprojectedfortheirrespectivecasesfrom1975to2000,withfairlyrapidexpansioninthehighcase,andvirtuallynoexpansioninthelowcase.Agriculturecontinuedtoexpandafter2000inthehighcase,withsomesignificantopeningupoflands.Therewasnopost-2000developmentinthelowcase.Sincemanufacturingoffishproducts,lumber,wood,andpulp~asassumedtofullyutilizetheavailableresources(asinthehighcase},orHsgrowthwasrestrictedbyexternal-institutionalmarketfactors(asinthelowcase),thelevel432 SECTORS Exogenous Construction Employment TABLE C-8 . DEVELOPMENT ASSUMPTIONS HIGH 1•.Oil treatment and shipment facilities: Gulf of Alaska Kodiak Kenai -Cookln1et 2.Small LNG faci1ites in: . .Lower Cook Inlet North Gulf of Alaska LOW ' itM 3.Beluga coal developed and tranship ..Ilo!facility ~I 4.State capital built at Willow 5.ALPETCO built on Kenai Peninsula 6.Pacific LNG built on Kenai Peninsula 7.North~est Gas Pipeline built 8.TAPS expanded 9.Faciities developed for Kaparuk and Lisburne at Prudhoe Bay 10.Major Beaufort Sea oil discovery 11.Peak employment of 7,000 in 1981 in Southcentra1,14,000 Statewide Pacific LNG built on Kenai Peninsula Northwest Gas Pipeline built Faci1ites developed for Kaparuk and Lisburne at Prudhoe Bay Sma 11 oil find offshore Peak employment of 1,800 in Southcentra1, 9,500 Statewide TABLE C-8 (cont) SECTORS Agriculture Employment Agriculture Value of Output Forestry .Employment '"~;Forestry I·Value of Output HIGH· 1.Major development:800 man-years by 2000 in Southcentral,4,600 Statewide, 6,400 by 2025 1.1958 dollars:8.5 million in Southcentral by 2000,51 million Statewide l~Essentially none 1.Negligible increase LOW Zero·employment by 1990 Amenity only Essentially none Negligible increase Fishery Employment Fisheries Value of Output 1.'Noincrease in existing fisheries 2.17,500 increase in bottom fishing Statewide,8,750 in Southcentral by 2000 1.Salmon quadruples by 2000 2.No increase in shellfish 3.Bottom fish:722 million 1958 dollars Statewide by 2000,361 million South- central No increase in existing fisheries No bottom fish development No increase in salmon No increase in shellfish No bottom fish development TABLE C-8 (cont) SECTORS .HIGH Pu1 p and 1-Employment increases by 1.8%per year, Paper to 1,886 by 2000 Statewide Manufacturing Ernp.1 oyment 2.No employment in Southcentra1 3.Value added of $93.6 mi 11 ion by 2000 Pulp and 1-Real output per employee grows at Paper Value 2.76%Statewide ~of Output t:2.Employment does not grow in Southcentra1 Outer 1-Dominated by petro1~um industry Manufacturing Employment 2.Increases reflect employment by ALPETCO,Pacific LNG,and two small LNG plants 3.Total employment of 2,000 Other 1.Existing level,p1usadditons from Manufacturing ALPETCO Value of Output LOW Employment increases by 1.6%per year,to 1,777 by 2000 Statewide No employment in Southcentra1 Va 1ue added of $88.2 mill i on by 2000· Real output per employee remains constant Only increase is for Pacific LNG,employing 60 ·peop1e Existing level of output·· SECTORS HIGH TABLE C-8 (cant) LOW 1.'Annual cut by 2000 is 1,260 mi 11 ion board feet 3.Statewi~e rises to 3,834 4. Other Southcentra1 emp1oym~nt increases 2.3%per year 5~Emp1oyment constant in Anchorage Lumber and Wood Products Manufacturing 2. Employment No new mills, ,Annua 1 c~t by 2000 is 960 mi 11 i on board feet \ No new mills Statewise rises to 3~280 Other Southcentra1 employment increases 1% per year Employment constant in Anchorage .a:. Co) 0-Lumber and Wood Products Value of Output Food Manufacturing Employment 1.Real output per employee grows at 1.659%per year 1.Fourfold increase in output of salmon fisheries ,,2.Doubling of salmon processing employment 3.Existing fisheries plant employment increases 25% 4.'By 2000,100%replacement of fqreign bottomfish effort'' 5.3.7 million metric tons/year catch by 2000 O~tput per employee does not grow Existing fisheries stay at existing levels No bQttomfish development ' _.._.___________f""-ASiA!~'f%1st¥Jti·+~±&N&tf:t1 TABLE C-8 (cont) SECTORS Food 6. Manufacturing Employment (cont)7. 8. 9. ~ Co) ~Food l. Ma nufacturi ng Valu.e of Output 2. HIGH Total processing employment of 12,000 .by 2000 Short-term (5-month)processing employ- .ment of 21,211 Annual processing employment average of 21,000 by 2000 Total Alaska shore-based employment of 3,759,1/2 in Southcehtral Existing fisheries value added (1958 $)' $145 million by 2000 .. Trawl fishery catch rises to 3.7 million metric tons,$722 million,$167 million value added in processing LOW Growth at 1%per year for total output,$81.5 million per year value added by 2000 No enhancement of fisheries output Mining Oi.l and Gas Employment 1.Development of Kaparuk River sand and Lisburne formation,1.785 mill ion barrels/day in 1985 2.1.0 billion barrels developed offshore Prudhoe Bay . 3.North Gulf of Alaska.:.550 million barrels/day in 1986 Development of Kaparuk River sands and Lisburne .formation 0.8 billion barrels developed offshore PrudhoeBay. No find in North Gulf of Alaska :~SECTORS HIGH;· TABLE C-8 (cont) LOW ,j:o, Co) OIl Mining Oil and Gas ....~lJlpl oyment .'(cont) 4.West Gulf/Kodiak Area:.515 million barrels/day in 1992 5.1.0 BCF/day gas production in North Gulf of Alaska . ., 6..26 BCF/day gas production in West Gu 1f /Kodiak Area 7.Coal production begins in 1983: 730.000 tons/year by 1984 to feed mine mouth plant;1.460.000 tons/year by 1986 to feed second plant;6 million tons/year exports by 1990 8.9.000 employed in 1984 Statewide 8.200 employed in 1995 Statewide 9.North Gulf of Alaska:932.000 barrels of oil per day by 1985.0.5 billion .. cubic feet per day in 1987 10.4.800 employed regionwide by 1984, declining theraafter 11.220 employed by Beluga coal by 1990 No find in West Gulf/Kodiak Area No gas production'in North Gulf of Alaska No gas production in West Gulf/Kodiak Area No Beluga coal development 7,000 employed in 1984 Statewide 4,800 employed in 2000 Statewide 2,700 employed in 198~regionwide declines sharply thereafter Value of 1.Present levels plus 9utput of Beluga Hard Mineral coal Production Present levels TABLE C-8 (cont) SECTORS HIGH LOW Value of Oil and'Gas Production 1.Production is multiplied times estimated Production is multiplied times estimated wellhead values of $17 .OO/bbl ($l.80/MCF 1/wellhead values of $7.50/bbl (l.40/MCF for ,for gas),new fields only in Southcentral -gas),new fields only in Southcentral JJ 2.Prudhoe and other North Slope production starts at $5.32/bbl and 25¢/MCF in 1977, with oil rising to $29.28 by 2000 JJ Prudhoe and nther North Slope production starts at $5.20/bbl and 25¢/MCF in 1977, wit~oil rising to $29.28 by 2000 JJ Federal l. Government Employment 2. t -0 Total Local l. Government Employment 2. 3. Rises at 1.2%per year in Southcentral, 10,857 to 14,500 by 2000 Rises at 1%per year outside Southcentral 4%growth rate outside the region 3.4%growth rate within Southcentral region Statewide increase from 14,200 to 34,900 in 2000 Rises at 0.5%per year in Southcentral" 10,900 to 12,250 by 2000 Rises'at 0.5%per year outside Southcentral 2%growth iate until 1985,1%thereafter Statewide increase from 14,200 to 20,100 in 2000 4.Southcentral region increase from 8,100 to 18,600 Southcentral region increase from 8,100 to 11,300 Proportional to increase in wages and salaries of Government workers Total Local 1.Proportional to increase in wages and and State salaries of Government workers Government Expenditures JJ Estimates are in current dollars incorporating a 5 percent annual .rate of inflation. SECTORS TABLE C-8 (cont) HIGH LOW ~ 8 Total State Government Employment 1.2 t 750 positions transferred from Juneau to Willow,1982-1984 2.Total employment increases from 14,700 to 38,000 in 2000 3.Declines from 7.6%of civilian wage and salary employment to about 7.2%by 2000 4.Southcentra1 employment increases from 5,400 to 14,900,or from 5.2%to 13.1% of total employment 5.Statewide rate of employment growth is about 5.4%per year Total employment increase from 14,700 to 19,159 in 2000 Declines to 6.4%of civilian employment by 2000 Southcentra1 employment rises from 5,400 to 7,140,from 6.1%of civilian employment to 3.1%by 2000 Before 1985,government employment growth held to 2%per year,with zero growth thereafter Value of 1. Facilities Oil and Gas Production t Transportation ;;:; Va1~e of 1. Fad 1ities t Mari1Jfacturi ng Based on Dept.of Revenue~Alaska's Oil and Gas Tax Structure,F~bruary 1977, Page IV,23,.thru 1985,declined at 5% per year thereafter ..'..:~. Includes estimated value of LNGa;hd Petrochemical facilities for local property tax Based on Dept.of Revenue,Alaska's Oil and Gas Tax Structure,February 1977,Page IV, 23 t thru1985,declined at 5%per year thereafter Includes value of Pacific LNG facilities 'i,'~,;",;,';;;;.:L,~~Jii1ii1·Wiji!":'1#&. TABLE'C..;g'(cont) oI:lo oI:lo- SECTORS Exogenous Transporation and Services Employment Rate"bf . Growth of Disposable Personal Income Per Capita and Wages HIGH 1.Estimat~d A1yeska eiTlp10yees in these sectors,plus 40 workers at the Beluga coal transshipment facilities 1.Income -'2%' 2.Wages -1-.2% LOW A1yeskaworkforce only Income -1.77% Wages -1.0% ofemploymentintheseindustrieswasheldconstantattheyear2000level.Fishingitselfwasassumedtoreplace10percentoftheforeignbottomfishingeffortafter2000bytheyear2025inthelowcase,buttherewasassumedtobenochangeinthetraditionalfisheri~sbeyondtheiryear2000level.Inothermanufacturing,theyear200Demploymentlevelwassustained,exceptthatnonpetrochemical"other"manufacturingwasprojectedtodoubleaftertheyear2000toservelocalmarketsinthehighcase.Inprojectingthenonbasic/basicratio,somewhatdifferentpro-cedureswereusedforAnchroageandtherestoftheregion.InOtherSouthcentral,theyear2000regionalratioofnonbasictobasicemploy-mentwasmultipliedtimesregionalbasicemploymenteachyearoutto2025anddisaggregated,usingyear2000proportions,whichpermittedproportionalgrowthinthenonbasicsectorineachsubregionaftertheyear2000.Inthehighcase,thenonbasic/basicratiowasassumedtoconvergetotheexisting1975U.S.ratioby2025,butitwasfoundtobealreadythereby2000.InAnchorage,itwasrecognizedthatmuchofthe"supportsector"employmentinfactservesstatewideneedsintransportation,financialservices,etc.Therefore,anestimatewasmadeoflocal-servingnonbasicemploymentbymultiplyingthestatewidenonbasic/basicratiobylocalbasicsectoremployment.Theremainderwasdesignated"statewide-serving"nonbasicemployment,whichwasassumedtogrowatthesamerateasbasicemploymentbecauseAnchoragestatewideservicesinboththebasicsectorandthispartofthenon-basicsectorcanbeassumedtogrowinresponsetosimilarstatewidedemandsforcentralofficesandgeneralsupportservices.WiththeAnchorageeconomyrelativelymaturebythattime,itismoredifficulttoarguethatstatewide-servingnonbasicfirmswouldcontinuetogrowfasterthantheircounterpartsinthebasicindustriesafter2000thanbefore2000.Finally,civiliannon-Nativepopulationnotemployedinexogenousconstructionwasestimatedusingyear2000population/employmentratiosattheregionallevelandallocatedtosubregionsusingyea~2000pro-portions.Anyassumptionotherthanproportionalpopulationgrowthamongsubregionsafter2000wasjudgedtoodifficulttodefend,sincesolittleisknownaboutthecharacterofAlaska'seconomyatthatpoint.Tothiswasaddedexogenousconstructionemployment,(nogrowth)•.Nativepopulation(2percentgrowthperyear),andmilitary'(nogrowth).FORECASTRESULTSTheLevelBpopulationforecastfortheAnchorage-CookInletsub-regionwasadoptedbyAPAforestimatingpowerrequirementswithoutanymodification.APAappliedprojectedstatewidegrowthratestotheFairbanks-TananaValleyareatodeveloppopulationforecastsforthatregion.Theresultingpopulationprojectionsuponwhichtheload442 forecastisbasedarepresentedinTableC-9.Thefiguresincludenationaldefensepersonnel.Actualpopulationgrowthwilllikelyfallwithinthelimitsestablishedbythehighandlowforecasts.TheAPApopulationandloadforecastsarediscussedatlengthinSectionG,MarketabilityAnalysis.TABLEC-9POPULATIONESTIMATESAnchorage-CookInletFairbanks-TananaValleyYearLowHighLowHighStatewideLowHigh198019851990199520002025239,200260,900299,200353,000424,400491,100247,200320,000407,100499,200651,300904,00060,39068,01074,66082,13089,70099,04062,02077,35095,370114,360139,760179,240500,225563,303618,397680,286743,034820,369513,766640,718790,042947,3121,157,7301,484,784UTILITYSECTORThemidrangenetgenerationforecastfrom1977to1980wasbasedontheaverageannualgrowthratebetween1973and1977.Thisratewasadjustedupwardanddownwardby20percenttoestablishthe1980higharidlowforecastsrespectively.Beyond1980,thehighandlowcasenetgenerationisestimatedbymultiplyingforecastedpopulationbypro-jectedpercapitause.Between1973and1977,percapitauseofe1ec-tricitygrewatanannualrateof3.8percentinAnchorageand9.4percentinFairbanks.ThelowerAnchoragegrowthratewasadoptedasthebasisofthepercapitausetrend.IncreasingelectrificationisassumedtobepartlyoffsetbyincreasingeffectivenessofconservationJrograms,resultinginagraduallyslowerrateofgrowthinpercapitaJse.ThefuturerateofgrowthinpercapitausewasprojectedtodeclineasshowninTableC-10•.Inordertotestthevalidityofthismethodologyforestimatingpercapitapowerconsumption,compa·rab1eregionsinthePacificNorth-westwereexamined.iheEugenemetropolitanarea,Oregon,(population150,450)aswe1l·astheRichland-KennewickSMSA,Washington,(population100,100)wereselectedonthebasisoftheirsimilarityinpopulationandcOl11llercia1/industrialcharacteristicstotherai1beltarea(i.e.,substantialpopulationcoupledwithrelativelylittleheavyindustry).Intheperiodfrom1970-1977percapitaelectricityuseincreasedbyanaverageof5..4percentand7.1percentforEugeneandtheRichland-KennewickSMSA,respectively.Thiscomparestoa3.8percentpercapita443 growthrateforAnchorage(1973-1977).Furthermore,thepowersalesanticipatedbytheutilitieswhichserveEugeneandtheRichland-KennewickSMSA,coupledwiththepopulationprojectionsforthesetwo·regions,revealaneverincreasingrateofpercapitaconsumption.Clearly,theseutilitiesmakelittleornoprovisionforenergy'con-servation.In1977,percapitauseinEugeneandtheRichland-KennewickSMSAwas13,424kWhand17,297kWh,respectively.Thesecurrentratesme~torexceedthehighforecastforAlaskainthe1980-1985period.With-outdoubt,Alaskaholdsaconsfderablepotentialforincreasedelectri-fication.PacificNorthwestcurrentpercapitaconsumption\excludingaluminumandothersthatbuyatbusbar)is13,550kWh/yr.TABLEC-10PERCAPITAUSEPROJECTIONSLowMid-RangeHighRateForecastRateRateForecastPeriod(%)(KWH/Cap)J!Lill..(KWH/Cap)19aO-1985.<2.511,0003.54.513,800'1985-19902.012,4003.03.5·16,3001990-19951.513,1002.53.018,9001995-2000·1.013~8002•.02.521,4002000-2025013,8001.02.035,000Withthehighandlowpopulationforecastsandwithhigh,mid,andlowpercapita'useassumptions,.sixdifferentnetgenerationforecastswerecalculated.Fromthese,thehighpopulation-highenergyuseandthelowpopulation-lowenergyusecombinationswereusedforthehig~andlowrangenetgenerationforecasts.Themidrangeutilitysectorforecastcamefromaveragingthehighpopulation-lowenergyuseandthelowpopulation-highenergyuseforecasts.TheresultingforecastsareshowninTablesC-12throughC-14.Peakloadforecastswerecalculatedfromprojectednetgenerationusinga50percentloadfactor.NATIONALDEFENSESECTOR.Theforecastforthisrelativelyminorsectoris.basedonhistoricaldatafromArmyandAirForceinstallationsintheraHbeltarea.Zerogrowthisassumedforthemidrangeforecast.Forthehighrange,growth·444 at1percentperyearisassumed,whilethelowrangeforecastisbasedonadeclineof1percentannually(seeTablesC-12throughC-14).SELF-SUPPLIEDINDUSTRIESSECTORThiscategoryofloadiscomprisedofthoseexistingindustriesthatgeneratetheirownpower,alongwithallsimilartypefacilitiesexpectedtobeconstructedinthefuture.I.tis.likelythatsuchindustrieswouTdpurchasepowerandenergyifavailableatreasonablecost.ThespecificassumptionsforthissectorarebasedonBattelle'sMarch1978reportentitledAlaskanElectricPower,AnAnalysisofFutureRequirementsandSupplyAlternativesfortheRailbeltRegion.Thehighrangeofdevelopmentincludesanexistingchemicalplant,LNGplantandrefinery,alongwithanewLNGplant,refinery,coalgasificationplant"mintngandmineralprocessingplants,tiinberindustry,capital.city,andsomelargeenergyintensiveindustry.ThissetofassumptionscoincideswiththeLevelBStudyTaskForcehighcasedevelopmentassumptionswithtwoexceptions.CoalgasificationandanenergyintensiveindustrywereincludedbyAPAbecauseinformedjudge-llJentindicatestheirdefinitepotential.Theirimpactonpopulationandeconomicactivityisrelativelyminorbuttheireffectonpeakloadrequirementscouldbesubstantial.TheUniversityofAlaskaandBattellecompletedastudyentitledEnergyIntensiveIndustriesforAlaskainSeptember1978.ThestudyevaluatecianumberofenergyintensiveindustriesthatmightbeattractedtotheStateasaconsequenceoftheavailabilityofitsla'rgeanddiversifiedsourcesofprimaryenergy.Foranumberofeconomicreasons,itwasconcludedthattheavailabilityofenergyresourcespersewouldnotbesufficienttoovercomethehighercapital,operatingandmarket~ingcostsforaworldscaleprimaryindustrylocatedintheState.However,itwasalsoconcludedthatofallindustriesexamined,theprimaryaluminiummetalindustryappearedtobethemostlikelytosucceedinAlaska.Itwasfurther.conc1udedthatalargee1ectro-processindustrywouldhaveimportantimplicationstoAlaska'selectricpowersupplyplanning.Thevi'abi1ityofsuchanindustryiscontingentupontheavailabilityoflowcosthydropower.Forthesereasons,thedevelopmentassumptionsforthehighrangecaseincludesomelargeenergyintensiveindustry.Theassumedpeakloadrequirementsintheyear2000arepresentedinTableC-ll.Themidrangeforecastisthesameasthehighrangee~ceptthatthelargeenergyinte~siveindustry(aluminiumsmelter)isexcluded.Thelowrangefurther"excludesthenewcapitalcity.Thereisalsosomereductionofpeakloadrequirementsofthemidandlowrangecase.s.The'resultingforecastisshownonTablesC-12throughC-14..'445 TABLEC-11SELF-SUPPLIEDINDUSTRYSECTORASSUMPTIONS,2000(HighRange)TypeofLoadEX';stingFacilities:ChemicalPlantLNGPlantRefineryTimberNewFacilities:LNGPlantRefineryAluminiumSmelterCoalGasificationPlantMiningandMineralProcessingPlantTimberNewCityTotalPeakLoadLoad(MW)26.00.6?II&;.•..,.5.017.015.5280.0250.050.07.030.0683.5TABLEC-12.TOTALPOWERANDENERGYREQUIREMENTSAnchorage-CookInletAreaandFa;rba~ks-TananaValleyAreaCombine.dPeakPower.1977.19801985199019952000·2025~J1MWMW.'MWMWMWMWTOTAL..High8901,6732,3603,2784,645.10,422Median6508291,162.1,5922,1342,8524,796low7699611,1771,449 1,783Z,146AnnualEnergyGWH11GWHGWHGWH GWHGWHGWHTOTALHigh3~9287,63610,68414,84420,93647,054Median.2,6813,6635,1337,0789,52812,73821,57aLow3,3914,2565,219.6,4307,8909,63011ThousandKW=MWMillionKWH=.GWHSource:AlaskaPowerAdministration,DepartmentofEnergy._-446 TABLEC-14FAIRBANKS-TANANAVALLEYAREAPOWERANDENERGYREQUIREMENTSPeakPower197719801985 1990199520002025~1.1MWMWMWMWMWMWUTILITYHigh1582443584956851,443Median119150211281358452689Low142180219258297329NATIONALDEFENSEHigh495154565976Median414747474747 47Low464442403829TOTALHigh2072954125517441,519Median160197258328405499736Low188224261298335·358AnnualEnergyGl~H1.1GWHGWHGWHGWHGWH GWHUTILITYHigh6901,0701,5702,1703,0006,320Median4836559251,230.1,5701,9803,020Low6207909601,1301,3001,440NATIONALDEFENSEHigh213224 235247 260333Median207207207207207207207Low203193'184175166129TOTALHigh9031,294 1,8052,4173,2606,653t4edian6908621,1321,4371,7772,1873,227Low8239831,1441,3051,4661,569J/ThousandKW=MWMillionKWH=GWHSource:AlaskaPowerAdministration,DepartmentofEnergy448 449CREDITFORENERGYANDCAPACITYAttheendofitseconomiclife,thefacilityisretiredfromservice.3535202050]jYears~Coal-fi;redThenna1GenerationOil-firedsteamGenerationGas-firedCombustionTU'rbineOil-firedCombustionTurbineHydroelectricGenerationGeneratingp1antavailabilitycanbeexpressedintennsofplant·utilizationfactors(PUFls),whichareprimarilydependentuponplanttypeandplantage.For'newcapacityandmosttypesofexistingcapacity,thefollowing.maximumPUFISareassumed:Theamountofprojectpowerforwhichbenefitcanbeclaimeddependsonboththeprojectlscapabilityandthemarketrequirements.Thelatter,inturn,isafunctionoftotalloadsandthemixofavail-ablegeneratingresources.Thedeterminationofthis"usable"energyandcapacityfromtheSusitnaprojectisbasedonaload/resourceanalysisconductedbyBattellePacificNorthwestLaboratoriesforAPA.Theload/resourceanalysismatchesforecastedelectricpowerrequirementswithappropriategeneratingcapacityadditions.Thecomputeraidedanalysisschedulesnewplantadditions,keepstrackofolderplantretirements,andcomputestheloadingofinstalledcapacityonayear-by-yearbasisovertheperiod1978to2011.Theanalysesarebasedontheloadforecastsandtheexistingandplannedgeneratingresourcesdescribedintheprevioussections.Reservemarginsof25percentfornoninterc6nne~tedloadcentersand20percentfortheinterconnectedsystemsareassumed.Theresultsoftheload/resourceanalysisareintennsofnetdeliverablecapacityandenergy'afterdeductionsforanticipatedtransmissionlosses•.Theload/resourceanalys,ismethodologyrecognizesconstructionscheduleconstraintsbynotallowingcall-upofnewgenerationortransmissioncapacitythatcould,notbemadeavailable.Forpurposesofthisanalysis,thefollowingeconomicfacilitylifetimeshavebeenassumed:]jWhilethepaybackperiodforfinancialcalculationsis50years,thephys·ica1lifeofahydroelectricprojectistypicallyinexcessof100years.Theeffectofthisdiscrepancyisinsignificantbecausethereareonly53MWofhydrocapacity. HydroStreamElectri·cCombustionTurbineDiesel..MaximumPUF0.500.75.0.500.10PlantsareallowedtorunatthemaximumPUFfromthestart,exceptfornewcoal-firedsteamelectricplantswhichgenerallyexperiencelowerplantutilizationinthefirstfewyearsandalsotowardtheendoftheireconomiclives.Hydroelectricgenerationsystems,asaresultoftheirstorageabilityandconservativeratings,canmakeadditionalpoweravailableforpeakinganditisassumedtheycanbescheduled.at115percentofdesigncapacityforthisservice,exceptdurin.gthecriticalhydraulicperiodwhen·headlimitsplantoutput.TheresultsofthebasecasearepresentedasExhibitC-l.InthoseyearswhenSusitnahydropowerisavailable,thetotalsystem'ssurpluscapacityinanygivenyearissubtractedfromSusitnahydrocapabilityinthatyeartogivetheactualamountofSusitnacapacitythatisusable.TheremainderoftheSusitnacapacityisconsideredtemporarilysurplustotheneedsofthemarketareaandnocapacitybenefitisclaimed.Forinstance,refertoExhibitC-l,WatanaPOLin1994andthemidrangeloadforecast.In1995-96(PagesC-1-13andC-1-14),addingAnchorageandFairbanks,Watanaisonlinewith703MWdependablecapacityand808MWoverloadcapacity.ThecombinedAnchorageandFairbankssurpluspeakcapacityinthatyearis543MW.1/There-fore,only26.5MW,or808less543,isusableSusitnacapacity.Althoughnobenefitsareclaimedforthehydrocapacitythatappearssurplustotheneedsofthemarketarea,thatcapacityinactuality··wouldbeutilizedtogeneratepower.Thiswouldresultinolderthermalgenera-tionbeingplacedinacoldreservestatus.This,inturn,extendstheusefullifeofthesetemporarily·retiredplantsandpostpones·theneedforfuturecapacityadditions.Thoughreal,themonetarybenefitsattributabletothispostponementofnewcapaictyareminorandhasbeenignoredin.thisanalysis.Forboththemediumandhighrangeloadgrowthcases,additionalcoal-firedgenerationwouldhavetobeinstalledafterWatanacompletionyTheloadresourceanalysisshows101MWsurplusinFairbanks,butthismustbeadjusteddownby25MWtoaccountforthe25MWsteamplantthatcomesonlinesubsequenttoWatana.450 butbeforeDevilCanyonpowerwouldbeavailable.Unfortunately,duetoconstructiontimingrequirements,DevilCanyoncannotbeadvancedinordertopostponethecoal~firedaddition.OncetheSusitnaproject'sdependablecapacityisfullyabsorbedbyincreasingpeakloadrequirements,thereistheopportunitytocapitalizeonthe-hydroelectricprojects'capabilitytoproduceaddi-tionalpeakingcapacityonanintermittentbasis.Thisadditionalcapacityisavailablewhenthenetpowerheadexceedsthecriticalhead.(Thecriticalheadiswhereratedcapacityisavailableatfullgateopening.)Theamountofadditionalcapacityincreaseswithheaduntilthefull15percentoverloadisreached.Thisoccursatfullgateandaveragehead(wheregeneratoroutputismaximum),whichisatabout630feetforWatanaand545feetatDevilCanyon,ascanbeseenonFigureC-2.FigureC-3showsthattheheadatWatanaexceeds630feetabout75percentofthetime.BecausethepowerpoolatDevilCanyonisalmost neverdrafted,DevilCanyonheadissufficienttoproduce15percentoverloadessentially100percentofth~time.Sincethisinterruptiblecapacitycannotbeguaranteed,itsvalueistypicallylessthanthatfordependablecapacity.Inkeepingwithacceptedpractice,interruptiblecapacity,whenneededtomeetpeakloadrequirements,isvaluedat50percentofdependablecapacity~11Forpurposesofbenefitca·1cu1ations,Watanaiscreditedwith15percentofitsat~marketdependab1ecapacity,or103MWofinterruptiblecapacity.(Sincethefullamountisavailableonly75percentofthetime,thefigureisadjusteddownwardto77MW.)ThecomparablefigureforDevilCanyonis100MW,whichbringsthecombinedproject'sinterruptiblecapacityto177MWforbenefitcalculation.AgainreferringtotheloadresourceanalysesinExhibitC-1(PagesC-1-13,throughC-1-18),itcanbeseenthattheSusitna.project'senergyisfullyutilizedasitbecomesavailable.Thereisnosurplusenergybecausethermalplantutilizationfactorsarereducedtotakeadvantageofthelessexpensivehydroenergy.Therefore,unlike,Susitnacapacitybenefitswhichareonlyclaimedthroughassimilationintothesystem,allS,usitnaene.rgyisuseful·andbenefitscanbeclaimedforallofit.Thevalueofthishydroenergydependsuponthetypeofgenerationthatwouldotherwisebeproducingtheenergyintheabsenceofthehydroelectricgeneration.Partofthehydroenergygoestomeetthegrowthindemandforenergyovertime.Intheabsenceofthehydro-electricproject,thisloadgrowthwouldbemetbynewcoal-fired11DepartmentoftheArmy,OfficeoftheChiefofEngineers,DigestofWaterResourcesPolicies,p.A-129.451 FigureC-2DEVILCANYONANDWATANAUNITMAXIMUMPERFORMANCES800__----------..;.;..-------.......---..;.;..------........7000<{W600I0::W3:00-....500IJJZ400DEVILCANON~"-WATANA200300MAXIMUMGENERATOROUTPUT(MW)300+---------..,....----..;.;..------..,.....---------1100INTERIMREPORTSOUTHCENTRALRAILBELTAREA,ALASKAALASKADISTRICTCORPSOF:ENGINEERSJUNE1975452 730--------------------------,ANNUALHEADDURATIONCURVEWATANARESERVOIR1009080MINIMUMHEAD/706050CRITICALHEAD-FEB1970HEAD-+40302010INTERIMREPORTSOUTHCENTRALRAILBELTAREA,ALASKAALASKADISTRICTCORPSOFENGINEERSJUNE19754100610470-1-------------,510430570530490450590630650.Figure.C-3PERCENTOFTIMEHEADISGREATERTHANINDICATEDVALUE453670710\....690MAXIMUMHEAD«z«I-~a::IJJ·~550oQ.--I-IJJL&JLL generation,andthevalueofthisportionofthehydroenergyisthere-forethecostofcoal-firedenergy•.Theremainderofthehydroenergydisplacesmorecostlythermalgeneration.Whiletheexistingthermalplantscontinuetoprovidepeakloadcapacity,theutilizafionoftheplantsdecline.Thisdisplacedenergyiscomprisedofseveraltypesofgeneration:coal-firedsteam,oil-firedandgas-firedplants,anddieselplants,eachhavingitsuniqueenergycost.Thevalueofthehydroenergyproducedinanyyear,then,isacompositevaluedeter-minedbytherelativesharesofgenerationtypethatwouldbepro-ducingenergyintheabsenceofthehydro.Theload-resourceanalysisshowsthat.thegreatmajorityofthedisplacedgenerationiscoal-fired,sincetheplantutilizationfactorsofthediesel,gas,andoil-f'tredplantswerealreadyreducedpriortoSusitnahydropoweravailability.Thisresultsinacompositeenergyvaluethat.inthemostextremeyear,isonly5percentgreaterthanthecoal-firedenergyvalue.Wi.thin12yearsafter·power-on-line,allSusitnaenergygoestowardmeetingloadgrowthandisthereforevaluedentirelyatthecoal-firedvalue.Becausetheeffectonprojectjusti-ficationissominoroverthelOO-yeareconomiclife,thebenefitofthehydroenergyhasbeencalculatedusingthecoal-firedenergyvalue;nottheslightlyhighercompositeenergyvalue.Theusablecapacityandenergyfortheinidrangeforecastwithinterconnectionin1991,Watanapower-on-linein1994followedbyDevilCanyonin1998ispresentedinTableC-15andisportrayedgraphicallyonFiguresC-4andC-5.TheusablecapacityanalysisresultsforthevariouscasesanalyzedappearasExhibitC-3andarepresentedgraphi-callyinExhibitC-2.Shownarecasesforthelowandhigh-rangeloadforecasts,aswellasfordelayedpower-on-linedates.454 TABLE:C~15USABLECAPACITY·ANDENERGY,BASECASEDependableInterruptiblePrimeSecondaryYearCapacity(MW)Capacity(MW)EnergyEnergy1994*2702,997°**1995265°3,058397199668003,0583971997680°3,0583971998#'950,06,057397**19991,03506,05778520001,231°6,05778520011,34716,0577852002##1,3471776,057785*Watanapower-on-linewithinterconnection.**l:essthanfullenergyavailabeduetoreservoirfilling.#DevilCanyonpower-on-line.##FullutilizationofSusitnapower.455 Figure C-4 4000 SOUTH CENT RAL RAILBEL T LOADS a RESOURCES MEDIUM LOAD FORECAST; INTERTIE 1991.WATANA 1994 INTERCONNECTED RAILBELT SYSTEM 300g, ene... (,!)...We ~~ ~ UI 0-2000 1000 ANCHORAGE FAIRBANKS 9085 °1 iii iii I.iii iii ·1 i I Iii Iii i 1980 ·TIME IN YEARS .',:,.""~,,,.,_~"£all\.~if~~>¥W;'rid ,.,ti&f1 14 12 10 8 >- <!) •a:: '"w ......z \Ll 6 FigureC-S SOUTHCENTRAL RAILBELT MARKETABLE ENERGY GROWTH FORECAST MEDIUM WATANA i994 R\~t.t.~t.RC;"{ vJ~1~~~? \OOCS e C;~'"" Q£''l\\.. (j ~~"{O~?R\~t. t'2.999 C;vJr\1 t.~£.RC;"{ ,-- c, 4 NOTE:Secondary energy is deferred one year for reservoir filling. 2 e2000999798 TIME IN YEARS 969594 oIii iii iii I 1993" THESELECTEDPLANPOWERCAPABILITIESTheinstalledcapacitiesatDevilCanyonandWatanareservoirswereselectedbasedupontheprojectfirmannualenergyproducedina28-yearperiodofhistorica,lstreamflow(1950-1977).Thisperiodincludedthreenewyearsofstreamflow,inadditiontothe25yearsusedintheoriginalscopinganalysispreparedin1975.AnupdatedseasonalloadcurvepreparedbyAPAwasusedinthenewsimulatedoperationstudy.Theadditionofthe3-yearperiodofrecordedstreamflowsresultedinchangestotheaverageannualandfirmannualenergycapabilityamountingtolessthan2percent.Theannualrunoffforthe3-yearperiOdis96percentofthelong-termaverage.Therefore,noadjust-mentintheoriginalenergycapabilitiesisconsiderednecessary.ThepowergeneratingcapabilitiesfortheprojectaregiveninTableC-16.TABLEC-16AT-SITEPOWERCAPABILITIESInstalledCapacity,MWPeakingCapacity,MWDependableCapacity,MWAverageAnnualEnergy,103MWhFirmAnnualEnergy,103MWhSecondaryEnergy,103MWhAverageAnnualSpilledEnergy,103MWhPlantFactor-Percentl/JjBasedonfirmannualenergy.Devil·Canyon·6897926893,4103,0203903150Watana7038097033,4803,0804004450Total1,3921,6011,3926,8906,1007907550Thedriestyearofrecordwas1969,whichwasestimatedtohavea1,000yearreturnperiodbaseduponaLogPearsonTypeIIIprobabilitydistribution,withanaverageannualrunoffatDevilCanyonof5,600cubicfeetpersecond,or59percentofaverage.Theseconddriestyearofrecord(1950)hadareturnperiodof20yearswithanaverageannualrunoffof7,340cubicfeetpersecond.The100-yearaverageannuallowflowisestimatedtobe6,500cubicfeetpersecondor68.-458 .459TABLEC-17AT-MARKETPOWERCAPABILITYThe1978updateofthesimulatedoperationstudydidnotresultinanysubstantialrevisionstotheoverallpatternofprojectopera-tion.ThegeneralcriterionasbeforewastomaintainDevilCanyonreservoiratmaximumpooltorealizethegreatestpossibleheadonLoss'esAt-Market451,347511,550451,347486,842436,05767841,3921,6011,3926,8906,100790At-SiteSEASONALRESERVOIROPERATIONInstalledCapacity,MWPeakingCapacity,MWDependableCapacity,MWAverageAnnualEnergy,103MWhFirmAnnualEnergy,103MWhSecondaryEnergy,103MWhpercentofaverage.The10monthperiodimmediatelyfollowingthe100-yearlowflowwouldlikelybethemostcriticalpowerperiodtobeencoun-teredinthelifeoftheproject.Theprojectdependablecapacityisbaseduponthefirmannual..energyandisequaltotheinstalledcapacity.Theprojectfirmannualenergyusingthe28-yearrecordofhistoricalflowsoccurredin1971.DuringMayofthatyeartotalprojectstoragewasreducedtoitslowestleveloftheentireperiod(230,000acre-feetor3percentofusable.storage).Theannualenergyproducedbytheprojectin1971wasapproxi-mately6,100,000megawatthours.'Themaximumpeakingcapacityforbothpowerplantsis115percentofinstalledorrated.capacityat0.9powerfactor.This15percentoverloadcapabilitywasassumedtobeavailableonlyatornearmaximumheadoneachunitforroutingpurposes.ThelargestoragecapacityofWatanareservoirprovidesnearlyfullrivercontrol.Spillsoccurredin8ofthe28yearsofrecordandwereonlyabout1percentoftheaverageannualprojectenergy.ThetransmissionlosseshavebeenestimatedbyAPAtobe3.2per-centon-peakand0.7percentforthelong-termaverage.Theat-marketpowercapabilitiesareshowninTableC-17. thatreservoir.Duringthewinter5withdrawalsweremadefromWatanastoragetomeetthesystempowerdemand.DevilCanyonstoragewasusedonlyafterthesupplyinWatanareserVoirwasexhausted.ThegeneralcharacteristicsoftheWatanao'perationareshowninFigureC-6.Thepoolelevationsshownhavebeenadjustedinaccordancewiththetopographicinformationobtainedinthe1978fieldsurveysattheWatanadamsite.rnyearsofaveragestreamflowthemaximumdrawdownonWatahareservoirwaSabout,100feet.Thereservoirreachedminimumactivepool(elevation1,940feet)ononlytwooccasionsintha28-yearperi6d.Inthesimulatedoperation,onecriteriawastofillWatanareser-voironSeptember30eachyear.Thiswasnotpossible,however,in13of28:yearsofrecord.Insuchyearsofreduced·streamflow'~itprovedtobeinefficienttodraw>theWat-anapooltoalowlevelonSeptember30inordertomeetthesystemloadrequirement.Ifthereservoirwasconsistentlydrawnbelowelevation2,100feet(storage=6,700,OOO.acre-feet)onSeptember30eachyear,theresultingheadlosswasofsuchmagnitudethattheprojectwasunabletorecoversufficientlytomeetminimumsystemloadrequirements,eveninyearswithaboveaveragerunoff.TheminimumSeptember30carry-overforWatanareservoirwasthereforesetat6,700,000acre-feetfortheupdated1978simulatedoperationstudies.Thegenerationandwater.storagelevelsforDevilCanyonandWatanareservoirsfortheentire28-yearperiodofrecordareshownonPlatesC-landC-2.ThespringandsummerfillingoperationforWatanareservoirintheoperationstudieswasgui'dedonlybyafixedfloodcontrolrulecurve.Inlaterscopingstudies.thisoperationcouldbeimprovedsomewhatthroughtheuseofavariablerulecurvebaseduponboth7-dayandseasonalvolumeforecasts.Inthesimulatedoperation,onlythereleasesnecessaryf6r~·minimumgenerationrequirementsweremadeuntilthemonthwhenthereservoirwouldfillorencroachthefloodspace.Onlyduringthatmonthcouldtheexcessrunoffbeusedtogeneratesecondary,energy.Themethodofoperationresultsinunnecessaryspillageofwater•.InordertoobtainamorerealisticestimateofthespillfrequencyatWatanareservoir,aseparatestudywasconducted.InthisstudythedailyinflowtoWatanareservoirwasestimatedusihgtherecordsfromthestreamgageatGoldCreek.ItwasassumedthatthefullhydrauliccapabilityoftheWatanaturbinescouldbeusedfor15daysin·advanceofthespillsobservedintheothersimulationstudy.Inaddition,for5daysinadvanceofthespilTs',theoutlettunnelwithdischargecapacityof30,000cfswasusedtomaintainthepoolbelow460 -3,400ISEPuJ-4,000:i.rvןm-8,200-7,000I-WWl1.-'-5,900~0::()<l:-4,800g.Q-----9,624IAUGIJLYIJUNIMAYIAPRIMARMINIMUMLEVELIFEBIJANIDECINOVMAXIMUMLEVEL1,905-IOCT2,065-1,945-MIN.POWERPOOL.---2,105-2,145-2,185-''''---~-----MAXIMUMWATERSURFACE--'-'----NOTE:DATAFROM.OPERATIONALSTUDYOFAVERAGEMONTHLYSTREAMFLOWFORPERIODOFRECORD1950-1977WITHJAN1976SELECTEDPROJECTPLAN.FigureC-6OPERATINGLEVELSWATANARESERVOIRALASKADISTRICT,CORPSOFENGINEERSANCHORAGE,ALASKAOCTOB~R1978461 thecrestofthespillwayasmuchaspossible.Whentheinflowsexceededthedischargecapacityofboththepowerplantandtheoutletworksandthereservoirreachedfullpool,thespillway,ofcourse,hadtobeused.TheresultsofthestudyareshowninFigureC-7.Thecurveontherightindicatesthefrequencyofspillsiftheoutlettunnelisnotused;thecurveontheleftassumesboththepowerplantandtheoutlettunnelareused.ThecurveillustratesthatthespillwayatWatanareservoirwouldbeusedapproximatelyoncein10years.462 DISCHARGEUSINGSPILLWAyONLY2INOTESI.CURVESNOTAPPLICABLEABOVE90,000CFS.2.NORMALWINTERDRAWDOWNFORPROJECTULTIMATEPOWERDEMAND.3.OPERATETOFILLRESERVOIRONSEPT30EACHYEAR.4.MAINTAIN124,000AFFLOODSPACEUNTILSEPT30.DISCHARGEOVERSPILLWAYUSINGUPPEROUTLETVALVEWITHQMAX=30,000CFS1085 43IIIIIRECURRENCEINTERVAL-YEARS~30000--~,...J,•...Ja.,en~:l~~20,000-~>-...J~5,000-50,000-10,000-enu.040000-,'w~a::4:roeno0-IIII10203040ANNUALEXCEEDENCEFREQUENCYINPERCENT50FigureC-7SP,ILLFREQUENCYDIAGRAM,WATANARESERVOIRALASKA-DISTRICT,CORPSOFENGINEERS~NCHORAGE,ALASKAOCTOBER197846369-7380 -80-30 ECONOMICANALYSIS.COSTS-THEBASECASEAdetailedconstructioncostestimateforWatana,DevilCanyon,andtheconnectingtransl11i'ssionsystemsispresentedinSectionB,ProjectDescrip~JonandCostES,timates.Iti~expectedthatconstruc-tionwillbegin'in1984,thetransmissionintertiewouldbecompletein1991,Watanawouldbecompletein1994,andDevilCanyonwouldbecompletein1998.TotalestimatedfirstcostofDevilCanyonandWatanaplusthetransmtssionsystemis$2.588billion.InterestDuringConstruction(IDC)Theinterestchargedonmoneyexpendedduringtheconstructionperiodisconsideredanadditionalcostoftheconstructionphase.Simpleinterestiscalculatedat6-7/8percentforeachyear'sexpenditureandaddedtofirstcosttoestablishtheinvestmentcost.SystemAnnualCostsExpendituresandIDCmadeaftertheOctober1994POLdateofWatanaarediscountedto1994.Theresultanttotalinvestmentcostisthentransformedintoanequivalentaverageannualfixedcostbyapplyingtheappropriatecapitalrecoveryfactorassociatedwiththe6-7/8per-centinterestrateandlOO-yearprojectlife.AnnualOperations,Maintenance,andReplacementOperations,maintenance,andreplacementcostsestimatedbyAPAareaddedtotheaverageannualcoststoobtainatotalaverageannualcostof$228million.SeeTableC-18.HYDROPOWER"BENEFITSPowerValuesandAlternativeCosts'Thepowervaluesandalternativecostsforuseinpowerbenefitcalculationswere;developedbytheSanFranciscoRegionalOfficeof,theFeder~lJnergyRegulatQrYCf;>mmission(FERC),anagencyoftheDepartmentofEnergy.AcopyoftheletterforwardingthepowervaluesisificludeqinExhibitC-7.ThemethodofanalysisusedbytheFERCstaffjn.develQpingthepowervaluesisexplainedinH1droe1ectricPowerEvaluation,bytheFederalPowerCommission(FPC,datedMarch1968.Thecalculationswerebasedona50percentPlantfactorfortheupperSusitnabasinprojects.Basedonfutureloadestimates,FERC464 TABLEC-18 ANNUAL COST COMPUTATIONS (i n,thousands of do 1H.rs ) Devil Canyon Gravity Dam,Watana Accumulated Year Expenditure Expenditure IDC 1984 30,500 1,048 1985 107,000 :'30,500.5,775 1986 114,000 .137,500 13,372 1987 159,000 251,500 22,756 1988 218,500 410,500 35,733 1989 214,000 629,000 50,600 1990 248,000 843,000 66,48J 1991 .258,000 1,091,000 83,875 ~1992 223,000 1,349,000 100,409 U'I 1993 161,000 1,572,000 113,609 1994 32,000 1,733 ,000 120,244 1995 1,765,000 1,765,000 613,902 1996 1997 1998 Expenditure 39,000 98,500 117,000 137,000 144,000 .l58,.000 129;500 .823,000 Present Worth of Expenditure 39',000 98;SOO 11T,000 128,187 .126,070 l29,428 99;258 737,443 Accumulated Expenditure 39,000 137,500 254,500. 391 ,500 535,500 693,5.00 823,000 IDC ,1,341 6,067 13,475 23,581' 38,191 43~622 53,505 179,782 Present..Wortt- of IDC,. 1 ,34" 6,067 13,475 22,064 33,436 35,734 41,010 153,127 Construction Cost I.D.C. Investment Cost Interest and Amortization Operation,Maintenance,and Replacement Average Annual Cost . Wa,tana $1,765,000 '·613,902 $2,378;902 $163,761 2,620 $166,381 Devil Canyon $737.,443' 153,127 ~$890,570 $61,307 700 $62,007 TQta1Watana&Devil Canyon $2,502,443 767~b29 . $3,269,472'. $225,068 3,320 $--228,388 assumedthattheoutputoftheproposedhydropowerprojectwouldbeutilizedbetweenthetwomajorrailbeltarealoadcentersintheratioof80percenttoAnchorage-Kenaiand20percentto,Fairbanks-TananaValley.'Powervaluesareprovidedfortwogenerationalternatives'ateachoftheloadcenters.Anoil-firedcombinedcycleplantlocatednearAnchorageandamine-mouthcoal-firedsteam-electricgeneratingplant1ocatedneartheBeluga..coa1fields·areconsideredasa1ternativesto'hydropowerfortheAnchorage-Kenaiarea.ForthePairbanksloadcenter,anoil-firedregenerativecombustionturbineplantnearFairbanksandamine-mouth,coal-fired'steam-electricplantnearHealyaresuggestedastheproperalternativepowersources.FERCnotesthattheagencyisunabletostatethateitheristhemostprobablesource,despitethe,oil-firedalternativesappearinglessexpensive.Whereasin1975FPCpresentedgaS-firedgenerationas,apossiblealternative,itisnolongerconsideredaviableoptionbecauseofnationalpolicyand,specifically,theNationalEnergyAct.TheAnchorageareacoal-fired,powe'rvaluesarebasedonatwounit,450MWplantwithaservicelifeof30years.'Theheatrateis10,000BTU/kwhandtheannualplantfactoris55percent.Theinvest-mentcostestimateis$1,240perkilowatt,whilethecostoffuelisestimatedat$1.10permillionBTU.Includedintheestimatearebaghousefiltersand502scrubbersat$187perkilowatta,ndcoolingtowersat$35perkW.TheseareJuly1978costs,andneitherinfla-tionnorfuelcostescalationareconsidered.Th:coal-firedalter~ativ:atFairbanksisa~wounit230MWplant,alsowltha30yearserVlcellfe.Itsheatratel510,500BTU/Kwhandhasa55percentplantfactor.TheestimatedinvestmentCostis$1,475perkilowattandthefuelcostisassumedtobe$.80permillionBTU.Includedinthisestimateareelectrostaticprecipitatorsand502scrubbersat$357perkWandcoolingtowersat$44perkW.Again,thesearethecostsasofJuly1978.',FinancingfortheAnchoragealternativeisacombinationof75percentREAand25percentmunicipal.InFairbanks,theassumptionisthatfinancingwoul~beprovidedbytheAlaskaPowerAuthority.'Thecompositecapacityvalueofthecoa.l-firedalte'rnativeis$186.58perkilowatt-year.Thecorrespondingenergyvalueis12.76millsperkWh.ThisandothersetsofpowervaluesareshowninmoredetailinExhibit,C-4.466 NaturalGasAlternativeInnotprovidingpowervaluesforagas-firedthermalalternative,FERCindicatesitsagret{mentwithAPAandtheCorpsofEngfnee'rsthatnaturalgasisnotanappropriatelong-termalternativetohydropower,intheAnchoragearea.ThisisinkeepingwiththeNationalEnergyActwhichprohibitssuchuseinbase-loadplantswithverylimitede~ception~,.'Thestrongestargumentagainsttheuseofnaturalgasforelectricalgenerationisthenationalenergypolicy,butlimitedCookInletsuppliesofferadditionalrationale.Since'theOfficeofManagementandBudgetspecificallycommentedontheCookInletgassupplysituation,updatedinformationhasbeengathered..TheestimatedCookInletnaturalgasbalancethroughtheyear2000ispresentedinTab1e.C..19.The·reserveestimatesarebasedonananalysisentitled"EstimatedRecoverableGasReservesfromGasFieldsintheCookInletArea"bytheS.tateDivisionofOilandGasConser-vation,April13,1978.Divisionanalystsbelievethatmoredetailedstudywould1ike1yresultinasnlucnasa20:pe'rcentincreaseil1theestimateforthreefields.1/Thiscorrectionwouldresultinanincreaseof436BCFoverthe13April1978estimateof3,776BCF.NotincludedintheDivisionisestimateareapproximately216BCFofKenaiFieldgasthathasbeenleasedforreservoirpressuremaintenante.Thisgaswillbereturnedinfutureyearsandwillbeavailableforsale.TheadjustedestimateofrecoverableCookInletgasreservesistherefore4,42.8BCF.TheAlaskaDivisionofMineralandEnergyManage-mentestimatespotentialadditionalresourtesofabout7tri11ion~ubicfeet;suchestimatesarespeculativewithlittleagreementamongexperts.Approximately3,698BCF,or84percentofthosereservesarepresentlycommittedtoAlaskanandexportuses.TableC-20presentstheestimatedreservesandcommitmentsbyfield.ThePacificAlaskaLNGcontracts,amountingto952BCF,havelapsedasaresultoffai.1uretogainFERCapprovaloftheproject.Theapprovalhasbeendelayed.largelyduetothePALNG'sinabilitytogaingascommittmentssuffi-cienttooperateatrequiredscale.PALNGcontinuestoexploreforgasinCookInletandeventualFERCapprovalisanticipated.PALNGexpectsthelapsedcontractstobereadilyreinstatedwithanextendeddeadlineforprojectapprovalandsomerenegotiationofprice.ThePALNGlapsedcontractsarethereforeconsideredcommittmentsforthisanalysis.1IConversationwithstaffoftheDivisionofOilandGasConservation,27September1978.467 TherehasbeenanunwillingnessonthepartofnaturalgasoWnerstoenterintocontractsfortheprovisionofgasduringaperiodofrapidly,e,Scalatinggaspricesandgreatuncertaintyregardinggaspricederegulatlon.Additionalcommitmentsareanticipated'asthepricingstr~cturestabilizes.In.1976,.34percentofAlaska'stotalenergyconsumptionwaspro-videdby'Cookinletnaturalgas.TheusesaredetailedinTableG"'21.Inthesameyear,54percentofAlaska'selectricalgenerationwas.providedbyCookInletgas.NaturaJgasisexportedinlargequantitiesintheformofbothLNG(liquifi"ed.naturalgas)andammohia-urea.fertilizer..COlJlparingpons,umptionin1976withthepreviousyear,naturalgas,use'was.up·12,percentwiththelargestincrease,18percent,ine1ectricitygeneration.Projectionsofnaturalgascpnsumptionlevelsbetween1980and2000weredevelopedinastudyfOftheA1askaRoyaltyOilandGas.DevelopmentAdvisoryBoardandthe1978..AlaskaStateLegislature..Thereport,pub"1ishedinJanuary1978,isentitledOilandGasConsumptiotlinAlaska,1976-2000.A<basecaseprojectionofgas,dernandsispresentedandpossi~ledeparturesfrOmthe,basecas~areanalyzed.Overtheentireperiod,naturalgas.useisforecastedtogrowat2percentannually.Thislow.rateisa~tributabletothe.basecaseassumptionsofprohibi-tionontheuseofgasinl1ewelectricitygeneratingfacilitiesinthemid-1980'sandonlymoderateincreasesinindustrialuse.Asaresult,useofgasin1980is238billioncubicfeet,upfrom165BCFih1976.By2000;tshasrisento267BCF,reflectingthefactthatmostofthegrowthil)naturalgasconsumpti.onisassumedtooccurinthenearterniand'intheindustrials~ctor.":8theforecastshowsgasuseinspaceheatingtobethemostrapidlygrowingdemandthroughouttheperiodat5p~rcent..Gasuseinelec-tricitygenerationremainsessentiaUY'constant,while:industr;aluseofgasri.sessha,rplyinthe·nearfut.ure,butfurtherincreasesareassumedtobezerobecauseofsupplyconstraints.'Thebasecaseassumespopulationgrowthofabout3percentannually,percapita'demandsomewhatmoderatedbyhighenergypdces,andnosignificantnewindustrhlconsumersof:.largeamounts,ofgas.Thesensitivityoftheprojectiontochangesin.severalof.,theassumptionswastested.·.Allresultedinincrea·seddemandrelativeto·theba.secase,..,TwoofthepossiblesGenariosareofspecialinterestand~ppearinTableC-19.OnepossibilityisthecontinueduseofgasinnewelectricitygeneratingunitsinAnchorageafterthemid-1980's.By1990thiswouldaddabout23BCFannuallytogasdemandsforelectricpower'"468 essentiallydoublinggasusebythatsector.Thiswouldadd10per-centtototalgasrequirementsinthatyearandincreasetheoverallgrowthrateingasconsumptionfrom2percentupto3,percentfortheprojectionperiod.TheactiveproposaltoliquifyCookInletnaturalgasfortransporttoCalifornia'isasecondscenarioofinterest.Asnotedear1iertrequiredFERCapprovalshaveyettobegiventbutPALNGcontinuestoactivelyexploreforadditionalCookInletgasandtoplanforcon-structionoffacilitiesbeginningin1980.Thisproposalwouldrequireabout80BCFannuallyinitsinitialphas~.Wereadequatereservesavailab1etthiswouldbeessentiallydoubledto161.6BCFannuallY.Overaperiodof15years(assumingastartin1985)suchaprojectwouldthusrequirefrom1t200to2t424BCfofCookInletgas.AnothersourceofCookInletgasdemandforecastsisNaturalGasDemandandSupplytotheYear2000intheCookInletBasinofSouthCentra1AlaskataNovember1977reportcompiledbytheStanfordResearchInstitute(SRI)forPacificAlaskaLNGCompany.TheSRIforecastissomewhathigherthanthatpreviouslydiscussed•.ThisdifferenceisaccountedforprimarilyintheindustrialcomponenttwhereSRIdoesnot1imitgrowthaswasdoneinthe1978b,asecaseforecasttoaccommodateanticipatedsupplyconstraints.TheSRIinterl11ediateforecastispresentedalongwiththeotherthreescenariosinTableC-19.SuinmingtheannualestimatesofCookInletdemand'requirementsfrom1976.to2000resultsintotalestimatedrequirementsof5t2l1BCFinthebasecase.TheadditionofPacificAlaskaLNGincreasestheforecastto6t411BCFor7t635BCFdependingonthescopeoftheopera-tion.Theadditiontothebasecaseofnewgas-firedelectricalgen-erationincreasestheforecastto5t743BCF.TheSRIintermediateforec'astoftotaldemandovertheperiodis8t232BCFtwhichincludesfullscalePALNGtbutnonewgas-firedgeneration.EstimatedprovenCookInletgasreservesareinadequatetomeettherequirementsinallforecastedcases.Thedeficitthroughtheyear2000variesfroma'lowof783BCFinthebasecaseto3,804BCFintheSRIintermediateforecast(seeTableC.,.19).TheuseofCookIn1et.gasfornewgas;'fi.redelectrica1generationafter1985wouldincreasetheyear2000deficitbyabout532BCF.>:'TheremayormaynotbesufficientundiscoveredgasreservesintheCookInletareatomeettheanticipateddeficit.Estimatesofundis-coveredreserves'rangefrom6-29trillioncubicfeet.BecausetheCookIn1.etgassupplyhashistoricallyfarexceededlocaldemandandbecause469 TABLE C-19 COOK INLET NATURAL GAS ~ALANCE 1977 to 2000 '1/ (Billion Cubic Feet) Base Case LNG to California .(80 BCF /161 BCF Annually), New Gas Generation in Anchorage (79 BCF Annually in 2000) SRI Intermediate Case Demand (A)Estimated Requirements 5,211,6,411/7 ,635 Y 5,743 Y 8,232 Y (B)Committed Reserve §j 3,698 3,698 3,698 3,698 011> ~(C)Remaining Requirements§!1,513 2,713/3,937 2,105 4,5340 SuEEll (D)Estimated Recoverable Reservesl/4,428 4,428 4,428 4,428 (E)Unconmitted Reserves§!730 730 730 730 (F)Undiscovered Reserves 21 ???? Balance (G)Deficit (Not Including Possible Undiscovered Reserves)!.Q/.783 1,983/3,207 1,375 3,804 ::-..~ ',","""'k;"i';"i"..¥i!ik~w':m('2d NOTESTOTABLEC-19:l!Basedon"0ilandGasConsumptioninAlaska,1976-2000,"January1978bytheDivisionofEnergyandPowerDevelopmentandtheDivisionofMineralsandEnergyManagement,TableIV.l,withmodificationsexplainedbelow.2/BasecaserequirementsplusadditionalLNGexportfrom1985to2000ofeither80BCFannuallyor161BCFannually.3/Gasuseinnewgas-firedelectricalgenerationincreasesfromzeroin1985to79BCFannuallyin2000.yIntermediatecasewithoutadditionalgas'-firedelectricalgenerationfrom"NaturalGasDemandandSupplytotheYear2000intheCookInletBasinofsouthcentralAlaska,"November1977bytheStanfordResearchInstituteforPacificAlaskaLNGCompany,TableII.§jSeeTable2.§j(C)=.(A)-(B)7/SeeTable2.W(E)=(D)-(B)9/Estimatesrangefrom6to29trillioncubicfeetbutaretoospeculativeforpurposesofpowerplanning.10/(G)=(A)--(D)or(C)-(E)471 TABLEC-20COOKINLETNATURALGASRESERVESANDCOMMITTMENTSFieldBeaverCreekBelugaRiverBirchHi11FallsCreekIvanRiverKenaiLewisRiver'McArthurRiverNicolaiCreekNorthCookInletNorthForkSterlingSwansonRiverWestForelandsWestForkTOTALNOTES:SourceJJ.PALNGDOGC,PALNGPALNGDOGCPALNGDOGC,PALNGDOGCCommitted("BCf)1121,0031011,70822876663,698TotalReserves2/(BCF)2391,05711131011,7853/4/90- -1403/17-9123/,12-23o2084,428}jDOGCisshortfor"SummaryofGasSalesContracts,CookInletArea,March15,197611bytheDivisionofOilandGasConservation.pALNGreferstodataprovidedbyLenMcLeanofPacificAlaskaLNGCompanyinuninterviewon4October1978.2/ThetotalreserveestimatesaretakenfromIIEstimatedRecoverableGasReservesfromGasFieldsintheCookInletArea,1IApril13,1978bytheStateDivisionofOilandGasConservation.ThereportwasaugmentedbyinformationprovidedbyLonnieSmith,ChiefPetroleumEngineer,DOGC,inaninterviewon28September1978.~Includesa20percentincreaseoverestimatecontainedinApril13,1978DOGCreportonthebasisofnewinformationavailabletoDOGC.4/Includes216BCFleasedforreservoirpressuremaintenancethatwasnotincludedintheDOGCreport.472 TABLEC-'211976ALASKAGASUSEYUseFinalConsumption(Heating)ElectricalGenerationExtractionanqProcessingUses,ExportsTOTALNOTES:Quantity(MMCF),16,80429,284137,880Y,,87,7653/27L733l!Sourceis1I0ilandGasConsumptioninAlaska,1976-'2000,11January1978.2/26,798MMCFproductionre1ated;111,082MMCFreinjected,muchofwhichcanbeeventuallyrecovered.3/63,509MMCFforLNG;24,256MMCF,forammonia-urea,.473 untilrecentlytherehasbeennosubstantialexportmarket,theCookInletareahasnotyetbeenextensivelyexploredfornaturalgas.Despitethepossibilities,thespecu'lativereservesareinappropriateforconsiderationinpowerplanning.Regardlessofavailability,how-ever,theworldwidecompetitionfornaturalgaswillescalatetheprice,ofgastolevelswhi.chwilllikelymakenewgas-firedbaseloadgenera-tionuneconomicinthefaceoflargeavailablesuppliesofcoalandhydropowerpotential.Oil-FiredGenerationAlternativeAsnotedpreviously,FERCprovidedpowervpluesbasedonbothoil-firedandcoal-firedgenerationforbothAnchor~geandFairbanks.TheNationalEnergyActgenerallyprohibitstheuseofoilasfuelinnewlarge-scalebaseloadgeneratingplants.Theactalsoincludes,however,severalproVisionsunderwhichautilitymaybeexemptedfromtherestric-tionsonuseofoil.Underthelaw,companiesmaybeexemptedfromthefuel-switchingrequirementfornewplantsiftheycanproveitwouldbeoverlycostly,environmentallyunsound,orimpossiblebecauseofinsufficientorunavailablesuppliesofcoalorotherfuelsattheplant'slocation.Proposedregulationstoimplementthecoal-conversionportionoftheenergybillhavebeenissuedbytheDepartmentofEnergy.11Togainanexemptiononcostgrounds,forinstance,acompanywouldhavetoprovethatacoaloralternatefuelplantwasmuchmoreexpensivethantheoilorgasplant.Undertheproposedrules,coalplantscosting30to80percentmorethanoilorgasplantswouldnotneces-sarilybeconsideredtoocostlytoavoidmandatoryconversion.BasedontheFERC-providedpowervalues,annualcostsforcoal-firedgenera-tionareapproximately40percenthigherthanforoil~fired.Thisi~basedona50percentplantutilizatioQfactorandincludescapitalexpensesaswellasthecostsforoperationandfuels.Togainanenvironmentalexemptionundertheproposedrules,com-panieswouldberequiredtoproducedecisionsfromtheEnvironmentalProtectionAgencyorStateagenciesprovingthatcoalplantswouldbeenvironmentallyunacceptable.AlthoughsomeproposedplantsitesinAlaskaareextremelysensitive,suchasatHealyadjacenttoMt.McKinleyPark,thereisnoevidencethatacceptablesitescannotbefound.Togainanexemptionbasedonfuelavailabilityataplant'slocation,autilitywouldhavetoshowitfullyconsideredarangeofalternativesites,includingsitesoutsidetheutility'straditionalservicearea.ThesubstantialprovencoalresourcesatbothHealyandBelugaargueagainstusingthisrationaleinseekinganexemption.11AsreportedintheWallStreetJournal,November14,1978,P14.474 Togainanexemptionbasedonaninabilitytoraisecapitaltacompanywouldhavetoshowthattheaddedca.pitalneededtoburncoalj)ralternatefuelstinsteadofoilorgastequals25percentormoreoftheannualaveragecapitalbudget.-Inwritingtheseregulationstitisclearthattheadministration's\:intentistoseverlylimitthescopeofexemptionsandplaceaheavyburdenofproofonutilitiesseekinganexemption.BasedontheproposedregulationstItwouldappearthatrailbeltutilitieswouldhave>adifficulttimeobtainingexemptionfornewbaseloadplants.TheAlaskaPowerAdministrationtDepartmentofEnergYtagreeswiththisassessment.TheAPAAdministratortRobertJ..Crosstwritesthat"(APA's)findingisthatexemptionsdon'tseemallthatpermanentorpertinentintermsofalargenewhydroprojectcomingonlinein1992.Ijustdon'tseethelogicoftheoilassumptioninbenefitdeterminationsforlOO-yearsofpowerfromamajornew-hydroproject.IIJJA1soagreeingthatoilisaninapproprtatealternativeforbenefitcalculationistheState'sAlaskaPower'Authority.-ThePowerAuthority'sExecutiveDirector,EricP.Yould,statesthat,"oil-firedgenerationfortherailbeltareamaynotbeaccept-ableeitherforlegalandregulatory/reasonsorfrorrtthestandpointoffuelavailability."2/He-notesfurtherthatGoldenValleyElectricCooperativeatFairbanksrecentlyanalyzedthecoalversusoil-firedgenerationquestion.GVEAhasdeterminedthatthecoal-firedgenera-tionalternativeispreferabletooilifcapitalcostsarenotpro-hi!>itive.Thefulltextofboth.piecesofcorrespondencearecontainedin".ExhibitC-7.Basedontheforegoing,coal-firedgenerationhasbeenselectedasthemostlikelyandappropriatealternativeagainstwhichtocomparetheSusitnahydroelectricproposal.Coalisthereforethebasisforthebasecasebenefitcalculations.Oil-firedgenerationisaddressed:ihthesensitivityanalysis.DerivationofPowerBenefits-TheBase CaseAnnualpowerbenefitswerecomputedbyapplyingtheunitvalueofcapacityandenergytotheusableoutputofthehydropowerproject.BenefitswerecomputedforeachyearofthelOO-yeareconomiclifeoftheprojectandwerethendiscountedtothebasedatetodeterminethecombinedpresentworth.Thebasedateinallcasesisthepower-on-linedateoftheWatanaproject.TheprescribedFederaldiscountrateof6-718percen~wasused.ThelaststepofthecalculationsJJRobertJ•.Cross,Administrator,AlaskaPowerAdministrationinamemotoFERCdated9November197802/EricP.Yould,ExecutiveDirector,AlaskaPowerAuthorityina.lettertoColonelGeorgeRobertsondated17November1978. entailedtheconversionofthepresentworthvalue:.toanequivplentaverage,annual'benefit,againusingthe6-7/8percentdiscounfcrate.'The.resultsofthecomputer-aidedcalculat.ionsareshowninExhibitC-5.Forthebasecase,whi"chincliJdedcoal-firedpowervalues,themedianloadforecast,power-on-line,datesof1994and1998forthe,twostagesofdevelopment,transmissionlinecomplet.i-oni"n1991,publicInon-Federalfinancingofthethermala1ternati've,aridstableprices,theaverageannualpowerbenefitsareestimatedat$289mi11io",.ForWatana.a1one.thecorrespond;ngfigureis$158million.;OTHERBENEFITSRecreation_Recreation-dayvaluesfor1978werer.esearchedin.ordertochecktheneedforchangingthevaluesasoriginallyreportedinthe,1976InterimFeasibnity.Report.AreviewofotherprojectssuchastheChenaLakesProjectatFairbanksindicated.thattheformervalues.aretypicalof1978visitor-dayrecreationva1ues.andremainunchanged.Therefore,theaverageannualbenefitforrecreationis$300,000.FloodControl'"Theextentofdamage.preventionfromdownstreamfloodingremainsunchangedAThedollarvalueofthoselosseshasbeenadjustedtoreflectthetimeelapsedsincetheoriginalestimate.Theannualbenefitsfor.f1oodcontrolare$65,000..dEmploymentWhenotherwiseunemployedlaborresourcesareusedintheconstruc-tionofaproject,theeconomiccostofthoseresourcesislessthantheprevai1ingwagerate.Conceptually,thiS:adjustmentcanbemadeeitherbyanappropriatereductiontotheproject'scostorby'i:fnincreaseinp·rojectbenefits.ThelatterapproachhasbeenadoptedbyCo~psofEngineersregulations.Thelaborareaforthis'projectistobeAnchorageandFairbanks.Theproposedprojectwillbelocatedinanunpopulatedareaandwilldrawheavilyfromthesetwopopulationcenters.A1aska.isdesignated·bytheIJ.S.Depa.rtmentofLaborasanarea.,ofsubstantialandpersistentunemployment..ThepresentlaborforceintheAnchorage/Fairbanksareais114,800,withapproximately1?,534intheconstructionindustry••Withan.average)0,443unemp1oyed,approximately25percentor2,610areconstruction1abor~Thepossibilityofagaspipelineprojectandthe476 capitalrelocationwillaffecttheavailabilityofotherwiseunemployedworkerstotheSusitnQproject.TheadjustmentdependsonwhethertheseprojectsoccurpriortoorconcurrentwiththeSusitnaproject.Duringtheoilpipelineconstructionapreferentialhire1aw'wasinforcewhichdirectedpipelinecontractorstohirequalifiedAlaskaresidentsinpreferencetononresidents.TheAlaskaDepartmentofLaborreportsthatduringconstructionoftheoilpipelinetheaveragepercentofmanpowerrequirementsdrawnfromwithinAlaskawas40to50percent.TheproposedupperSusitnahydroprojectismuchsmallerthanwastheoilpipelineproject.Itisthoughtthatan80percentlocalhiregoalcouldeasily.bemet.Theproposedgaspipelineprojectisplannedto·beginintheearly1980'sandcompletionisanticipatedbeforeSusitnaconstructionbegins.EstimatedyearlymanpowerexpendituresforconstructionoftheDevilCanyonandWatanadamsandthetransmissionlineareshowninTableC..22.Thesefigureswerederivedbyestimatingthelaborcostassociatedwitheachmajorfeatureoftheproject,netofcontingencies.Overall,38percentofprojectcostsareestimatedtobelaborexpenses.TABLE'C~22MANPOWEREXPENDITURES($1,000)PercentYearSkilledUnskilledTotalofTotal19848,3072,07710,3841.2198528,3787,094.35,472·4.1198630,4547,61438,0684.4198742,22110,55552,7766.1198858,14014,53572,6758.4198957,44814,36271,8108.3199066,44616,6"183,0579.6199169,21417,30486,51810.0199269,906.17,47787,38310.1199369,21417,30486,51810.·01994AO,14410;03650,1805.8199536,6839,17145,854·5.3199638,7609,69048,4505.6199742,22110,55552,7766.1199834,6078,65143,2595.0692,143173,036865,179100.0477 iIiApproximately6percentoftheselaborexpensesareattributabletothecontractors'supervisoryandmanagerialfunctions.Oftheremaining$813millionlaborcosts,80perc,entareexpectedtobepaidtolocallyhiredlabor.,Ofthistotalanestimated20percentor$130,000,000willbe.torunskilledlabor,while80percentor$521,000,000willb~forskilledlabor.FollowingtherecommendationsofDraftER1105~2-354,theproportionoflaborcostsclaimedasemploymentbenefitsforskilledandunskilledcategoriesare40percentand55percentrespectively.Usinganinterestrateof6-7/8percent,eachyear'sbenefitsarepresent-worthtoPOLThen,usingthesummationofallyears,theappropriatecapitalrecoveryfactoris.appl,iedtoobtaintheannualemploymentbenefitforeachcategoryofworkers(skilledandunskilled).Theannuals·killedlaborbenefitis$17,562,000andtheannualunski-lled.laborbenefitis$6,037,000.Thus,thetotalemploymentbenefitfortheSusitnaprojectis$23,E99,000.Similarprocedureshavebeenappliedtothecoal-firedandoil-firedgenerationalternativestoestimatetheirrespectiveemploymentbenefits.ThisisinkeepingwithDraftERll05-2-354whichdirectsthatemploy-mentimpactsofeachalternattveplanaretobeassessed.Theestimated1aborportionofthetotalprojectcostwascalculatedusingFERC.,invest~mentcostdataandlaborpercentagesfortheplannedHealyIIcoal,:"fired.'plant.Atacomposite(Anchorage-Fairbanks)investmentcostof$1,,287"..perkilowatt,thetotalcostofcoal-firedplantconstruction,equivalentinoutputtotheSusitnaproject,is$2,060,487,000.Thistotalamountwasscheduledovertheplanningperiodtoreflectcapacityadditionsindicatedbytheload-resourceanalysismediumrangecase.AccordingtoStanleyConsultants,the'engineeringfirmthathas'developedtheplansforHealyIIonbehalfofGoldenValleyElectric,approximately40percentofconstructioncostsarepaymentstolabor.1/.,,;;:,Usingthesameproportionofskilledand.unskilledlaboraswasused-withthehydroprojectcalculationsandthesamediscountingprocedures,theaverageannualequivalentemploymentbenefitfor:the.coal-firedgenerationalternativeis$19,635,000.2/Thecomparablefigurefortheoil-firedalternativeis$5,203,000~Theseestimatesarepresentedforroughcomparisononlysincetheydonotreflectadetailedstudyoflaborrequirementsforthermalplantconstruction..Since,onaverage,amoreskilledworkesisrequiredforconstructionofthethermalplantandsincesuchaworkerwouldprobably-notbeavailablelocally,thethermalalternativeemploymentbenefitestimateisProbablysomewhatoverstated..".""..;1/PerconversationwithStanleyConsultants,20December1978.2/Thisamountincorporatesa20percentreductionto,accountfor",contingencyfactorsinthecostestimates,thusinsuring~9mparabilitywiththehydroproject.478 Thethermalalternativesareprocedurallydefinedtohavepowerbenefitsequaltoplancosts.Thecrediting-ofemploymentbenefits,therefore,resultsinthethermalalternativeseachhavingpositivenetbenefitsequalinmagnitudetotheemploymentbenefit.IntertieBenefitsTheoriginalfeasibilityreportdiscussedthevalueofintercon-nectedloadcentersmadepossiblebytheconstructionofatransmissionlinebetweenAnchorageandFairbanks.Itwasnotedthatintertiebenefitsarisefromtwoaspectsofinterconnection,sharedreservesandenergytransfer.Theload-resourceanalysishasdemonstratedthatcapacityadditionscanbepostponedasaresultof-reducedreserverequirementsinaninter-connectedsystem.Sincethereservemargineffectivelyincreasestheamountofgeneratingcapacityinplaceatanygiventime,itcontributescoststothesystem.Thereforeareductioninthatreservemarginwillreducecost.Realizingthatamorerefinedanalysisofdesiredreservemarginswillbeneededatalaterdate,APAnowestimatesthata25percentmarginwouldberequiredwithoutinterconnectionwhileonly20percentreserveswouldbeneededwithinterconnectedloadcenters.Theseestimatesarebasedlargelyontheexperienceinothermarketareas.TheflexibilityaffordedbythetransmissionlinedecreasesasthelinebecomesloadedwithSusitnapower.Thereservereductioncapabilityislimitedbytheunusedportionofthelinesegmentwiththeleastcapacity-thatporti.onfromDevi1CanyontoFairbanks.Whenthe1ineiscompletedandbeforeWatanapowerproductionbegins,afull300MWcapacityisavailableintheline•.1/ThisisreducedastimegoesonbytheamountofSusitna'capacityallocatedtotheFairbanksloadcenter.Thecapacitysavingsduetointerconnectionforeachyear,then,isthelesser-ofunusedlinecapacityandthe5percentreservedifferentiqlappliedtothetotalpeakloadrequirement.ThisisshowngraphicallyinFigureC-8,andtheresultsarepresentedinTableC-23.Eachyear'scapacitysavingisvaluedatthecapacityvalueofacoal-firedsteamplantasprovidedbyFERC,$170perkW.Thevaluesarediscountedat6-7/8percenttogivethepresentworthasoftheWatanapower-on-linedate.ThelOO-yearcapitalrecoveryfactoristhenappliedtothesummationtogivetheequivalentannualcapacitybenefitfrominterconnection.~1/Thisfigureisnotanabsolutemaximumcapacity,butratherareasonablelimitfortheDevilCanyon-Fairbankssegmentbasedonacceptablelineloss.479I=:.Cl_7~Rn_Rn_':1:1 FigureC-8TRANSMISSIONLINECAPACITVCREDIT300..;----_.------,I99989796959493921..;-•IL-'-•_I__--J1--1,-·-1.--1.-----1-I·,--/'-...-.O'~--""-""';~-";""'----r'--.,...--r--.....,----'""'i---""T""""-""''''''''1991200C/)........<I~<I(,!).W~100TIMEINYEARS------UnusedCapacity5%ReserveDifferentialAppliedToTotalPeakLoadRequirements.480 TABLEC-23INTERTIECAPACITYBENEFITSCapacityCapacityPresentYearSavingValueWorth.(MW)($1,000)($1,000)19919015,30018,70019929616,30018,600199310117,200 18,400199410718,.20018,200199511419,400 18,200199612120,600 18,000199712821,80017,9001998305,1003,9001999through2041122,00027,300Total($1,000)$159,200AnnualBenefit($1,000)$10,959Theotheraspectofinterconnectiondiscussedintheoriginalfeasibilityreportwasthecapabilityfortransferofenergyfromthelowenergycostproducingloadcentertothehighcostarea.Thetransferallowsacostsavingequaltothedifferentialcostofenergyproductionfortheamounttransferred.Estimatesin1975indicatedthatenergycouldbetransferredfromAnchoragetoFairbanksforacostsavingof2.48mills/kWh.The1978estimatesbyFERCindicatethatcoalwillbecheaperinFairbanksthaninAnchoragewiththeresultthatFairbanksenergywouldbe2.65mills/kWhcheaperthanthat,producedbycoalplantsinAnchorage.Thisreversalin3yearshigh-lightsthevolatilityofthiscostdifferential.Forinstance,ifnewcoalplantshadtobelocatedatsomedistancefromtheHealycoalfieldsduetotheirproximitytoMt.McKinleyNationalPark'scleanair,theadditionalcostfortransportingthecoalwouldessentiallyeliminateanyenergycostdifferential.therefore,althoughtheopportunityremainstotakeadvantageofenergycostdifferentialsthroughthetransferofenergy,noenergytransferbenefitsareclaimedbecauseofthepossibilitythatenergyproductioncostsinthetwoloadcentersmightwellbealmostequal.PLANJUSTIFicATION-THEBASECASEAsummaryofprojectcostsandbenefitsfortheproposedtwostagedevelopmentaswellasforWatanaalonearepresentedinTablesC-24andC-25.Thebasecasesetofassumptionsapplies.481 TABLEC-24AVERAGEANNUALCOSTS'DevelopmentWatanaWatanaandDevilCanyonfnterest&Amortization---cll~OOO)163~761225,0680~r4&R.Total(Rounded)niT~000).($1~000).2~620166~3813~320228~388TABLEC-25AVERAGEANNUALBENEFITSWatanaWatanaandDevilCanyon($1~OOO)($1,000)Power163~958288,700Recreation100300FloodControl6565Intertie10~95910,959Employment18,65423,599.Total193,736323~623BenefitsandcostsarecomPCiredinTableC-26.TABLEC-26PLAN'JUSTIFICATIONAnnualCosts($1,000)AnnualBenefitis($1,000)NetBenefits($1~000)BenefitCostRatioWatana'166,381193,73627,3551.16482WatanaandDevilCanyon228~388323,62395,23,51.42DevilCanyonLastAdded63-,007129,88767~8802.09 Thesefiguresindicatethat,giventhebasecaseassumptions,theWatana-DevilCanyonsystemiseconomicallyjustified;theWatanaprojectfirstaddediseconomicallyfeasiblebyitself;andDevilCanyon,isincrementallyjustifiedqnalastaddedbasis.,SENSITIVITYOF·PROJECTJUSTIFICATION.'This·sectionpresentstheresultsofvadouss'ensitivitytestsconductedtodeterminetheimpactontheproject'seconomicjusti-ficationofpossibledeparturesfromthebasicsetof~ssumptionsthatunderliethecalculationofbenefitsandcosts.Eachtestwasconductedusingthesameproceduresasdescribedearlierinthissection,butwithcertainspecificassumptionsalteredasoutlinedinthefollowingparagraphs.ComparabilityTestThepowerva1uesforthebasecasearecomputedusingthemostlikelymeansoffinancingthevariousthermalalternatives.Theseincludedmunicipal,REA,andAlaskaPower'Authorityfinancing.Thistestexaminesprojectjustificationwhenthepowervaluesarecalculatedonthebasisofthermalalternativefinancingatthesamerateappliedtothehydropoweralternative,theFederaldiscountrateof6-7/8per:"cent.UsingpowervaluesbasedonFederalfinancing,theaverageannualpowerbenefitsare$264million,adecreaseof9percent.Thehydroprojectcostsandnonpowerbenefitsarealreadybased'ontheFederaldiscountrateandthereforeremainunchanged.Theeffectonprojectjustificationisnoticeable;netbenefitsfallfrom$95millionto$71million,whilethejustificationratiobecomes1.31.WithFederalfinancing,Watanaaloneoffersnetbenefitsof$14-millionandajustificationratioof1.08.AlternateDiscountRatesTherateatwhichfutureprojectbenefitsarediscountedandatwhichinterestduringconstructioniscalculatedcanaffectthecom-parisonofprojects.ThediscountratetobeusedintheevaluationofFederalwaterresourceprojectsisestablishedannuallyandispeggedtotheinterestrateonlong-termgovernmentbonds.ThisservesasanapproximationoftheopportunitycostofFederalfunds.Theestablishedratehasrisentothecurrentvalueof6-7/8percent,reflectingthQinfluenceofinflation.Inordertodeterminethemagnitudeofimpactadifferentdiscountratewouldhaveontheproject'seconomicjustification,benefitsand483 costswererecalculatedusinginterestrateslowerandhigherthantheestablishedrate.Withadiscountrateof5percent,annualcostsdeclinewhilebenefitsincrease.Netbenefitsrisefrom$95millioninthebasecaseto$180mUlion,andthebenefit-costratiobecomes2.14.Withan8percentrate,theeffects'arereversed.Netb~nefitsfallto$42millionwi'thabenefit-costratioof1.15•.RefertoFigureC-9.ttcanbeconcludedthattheproject'seconomicjustificationissensitivetochangesinthediscountrate.Theeffectswouldbedampered,however,ifthecostsofthealternati'vegenerationmodeweresimilarlycalculatedusingthealternaterates.FiQureC-9PLANJUSTIFICATlON,ALTERNATEDISCOUNTRATES2001'0I0:J..Ji•to-~it&&IZ&&Ien~50&&IZ6'YaDISCOUNTRATE(%)4848 VariationsintheLoadForecastandProjectTiming'.'Thebasecasesetof,assumptionsincorporatesthemid-rangeloadforecastbecauseithasbeenjUdgedto,reflectthemostlikelyfuturepowerrequirements.Theactualdemandfore1ectrica,1power,however,willalmost~ertain1ydepartfromthemid~rangeforecast,anditisimportanttodeterminehowsuchdeparturescaneffecttheviabilityoftheproject.Asign1ficantdepa'rtureonthe1owsidecouldhaveseveralresults.Thefirst,andmostlikely,wouldentailaplanneddelayinthestartofprojectconstructi'onwhenitbecameapparentthattheloadwasnotgrowingasrapidlyasexpected.Anotherpossibilitywouldbethatthedeparturefromanticipatedgrowthonlybecomesapparentafterconstructionhasa1readybegun.Inthiscase,theconstructionperiodwouldbestretchedoutsothattheprojectisnotcompleteduntiltheproject'spowerisneeded.AthirdpossibilitywQu1dbetopostponeorcancelothergeneratingresourceadditionswithshorterleadtimes.Thelastandpotentiallymostdamagingpossiblecircumstancewould.entailthesuddenslackeningofloadgrowthimmediatelyaftertheprojectwascompleted."JIf,on:theotherhand,'theloadrequirementsgrowmorerapidlythanexpected,Susitnapowerwouldbeneededearlierthanpresentlyplanned.TheWatanaproject,however,probablycannotbecompletedanyearlierthantheplanned1994power-on-linedate,andtheDevilCanyonprojectcannotbecompletedearlierthan4year~afterWatana.Toassesstheimpactsofthesevariouscircqrostances,the10ad~resourceanalysiswasconductedusingthelowandhighrangeforecasts.Withthelowrangeforecast,theinitialprojectcontinuestoberequiredassoonasitisavailable,ie.,1994.Acoal-firedsteamplantadditionin1997isnolongerneeded,butDevilCanyonisstillrequiredin1998.TheneteffectisthatSusitnacapacityisabsorbedataslowerrate,andpowerbenefitsfall3percentto$280million.Netbenefitsbecome$87millionandthebenefit-costratiois1.38.Asnotedabove,themostdamagingpossibilityintermsofprojecteconomicswouldoccuriftherewasasuddendecreaseintherateofloadgrowthimmediatelyafterpower-on-line.ThiswouldmeanthatSusitnapowerwouldbeneededlessrapidly,andlessSusitnacapacitywouldbeusableintheearlyyears.Inthebasecase,Susitnapowerisfullyabsorbedintherai1be1tsystemby2002.Theannualgrowthrateinpeakloadduringtheperiodbetweenpower-on.:lineand2002is4.6per-cent.Inthe10w~10adgrowthcase,Susitnapower,isabsorbedoveralongerperiod,between1994and2010.Theannualgrowthrateinpeakloadforthiscaseis1.9percent.Additionalcaseswereanalyzedtodeterminehowsensitiveprojectjustificationwastothepost-POLrateofloadgrowth.Atzerorateofloadgrowthafter1994,theprojectoffersnetbenefitsof$26millionandabenefit-costratioof1.1.485 Thistestwaspremisedonthelow-loadforescastpriortopower~0n--1ine.TheDevilCanyonphasewasconstrainedtocomeonlinein1998eventhoughinpracticethesuddenstabilizingofdemandwouldhavesuggestedpostponingDevilCanyoncompletion.Underthistest,theentiremarketareaenergyreq.uirement,withtheexceptionofenergyfromexistinghydrosources,lsprovidedbY,Susitnaafter.DevilCanyoncompletion.Withthisassumption.of.noloadgrowth,Susitnacapacityiscreditedwithbenefitsonlyasthermal'plantsreachthei<rretirementage.Despitethegreaterpeakloadrequirementsofthehighrangefore-cast,thereisnoopportunitytoadvanceprojectconstruction'sincetheprojectscannotbebroughtonlinepriorto199.4and1998.Usingthehigh-rangeloadforecast'resultsinmorerapid'utilizationofSusitnapowerandanincreaseof$12millioninnetbenefits..Thebenefit-costratiobecomes,l.47.ConstructionDelaysThebasecaseanalysisispredicatedonal4-yearcombinedcon-structionschedule.Watanaconstructionisplannedtotake10yearsandDevilCanyon8years.,Thereisoverlappingconstructiontomeet'loadrequirements.''Constructiondelaysarepossibleforanyofanumberofreasons.Projecteconomicshavebeenanalyzedtoassesstheimpactsuchdelays'wou1dhaveonprojectjustification.A2-yearconstructiondelay.wasadoptedforanalysis.Theeffectofthedelayistopostpone.power-on-1ineandincreaseinterestduringconstruction.Iffossilfuelcostsareescalating,thedelayalsoincreases,thevalueofpowerproduced.Withstableprices,a'2-yearconstructiondelaycausesannual'coststoriseto$245millionaridnetbenefitstofallto$75million,withabenefit-costratioof1.31.Itwou1drequireadelayofatleast9yearsbeforetheSusitnaproject'snetbenefitswouldfallaslowasthoseofthecoal-firedalternative.'AlternateInvestmentCostEstimatesforCoal-FiredPlantsTheAlaskaPowerAdministrationhasprovidedindependentestimatesofcoal-firedgenerationcoststhatserveasusefulcomparisonsto·thos·eestimatesprovidedbytheFederalEnergyRegulatoryCommission.APAdataprimarilyreflectsexperienceinthelower48stateswithadjustmenttoreflectAlaskapricelevels,smallersizedplants,andconstructionconditions.ThebasicreferenceistheComparativeStudyofCoalandNuclearGeneration'OptionsinthePacificNorthwest,June1977bytheWashingtonPub1icPowerSupplySystem(wPPSS).APA'sestimateispremisedonpowerp1antlocationsnearminingoperationsatBelugaandHealy.Plantsof200MWand500MWareexamined.Theinvestmentcosts,whichincludeconstructionandinterest486 duringconstructionassumethatfluegasdesulpherizationwouldberequired.Mid-1976costsfromtheWPPSSstudywereincreasedtobc~ober1978usingtheHandy-~hitmanSteamplantcosttrendsanda1.8Alaskafactortoaccountfartostdifferentials.Theresulting,corn-pOsiteilivestmentco'stestimateof$1,644perkilQwattforthe450'and230MWplantsinAnchorageandFairbanksrespectivelywasused·inthecalculationofpowervaluesin1leuaftheFERCcompositeestimateof$1,299perkilowatt.Thisresultedinanincreasedcapacityvalue.SeeExhihitC-4.'Usingtheadjustedvalueresultsi'na$40mi11ionincrease'inthepowerbenefit.Netbenefitsriseto$135million,andthebenefit-costratiobecomes'1.59•....On-FiredThermalAlternativeAsdiscussedinaprevioussection,oil-fi.redgenerationisnotthemostappropriatealternativeforderivationofpowervalues.Nationalenergypalicyprioritiesstronglysuggestthatcoa1':'firedgenerationisthelikelyandploperalternativetohydropowerinthemid-1990'sandbeyond.SinceJoil-fi'redpowervalueswereprovidedbyFERCalongwithcoalvalues,however,andsincetheOfficeofManagementandBudgetraisedquestionsspecificallyaddressing'the,sensitivityofprojectjustificationtooilprices,power'benef.itswerealsoca1cula-tedusing'oil-firedpowervalues.InAnchorage,FERC'reportsthatthelikelyoil-firedalternativeisacombinedcycleplantconsistingoffour'unitsofl05MWeach.Theservicelifeis30years,andtheheatrateis8,350BTU/kWh.Theinvestmentcostisestimatedat$360perkilowatt,whiletheoilfuelcostis$3.00permillionBTU~'ForFairbanks,theoil-firedalternativeisaregenerativecom-bustionturbinewithfour60MWunits.Theservicelifeisagain30years,whiletheheatrateinthiscaseis10,000BTU/kWh.Theinvest-mentcostis$265perkilowatt,andfuelisestimatedat$2.00permillionBTU..Thecompositerailbeltoil-firedpOwervalueswithpubliC,non-Federalfinancingare$43.95perkilowattand26.92millsperkilowatthour.Powerbenefitsamountto$212millionwhichis27percentlessthanthebasecase.The'correspondingbenefit-costratiois1.08,withnetbenefitsof$18million.'.487 Inflation,Theeconomic'evaluationproceduresnormallyfollowedinFederalwaterresourcestudiesignore,theeffectsofinflationandescalation.11Theimp1icitassumptiol1isthatpricelevelchangeswillimpactequar1y-onalla1ternatives,beihgcompared.Intimeofrelativelystableprices,thisisareasonablesimp1if;Yingassumption~Eversincethe1930's,however,therehasbeenanacceleratingriseincostsintheUnitedStates.Nationwide,theannualincreaseinconstructioncostsfrom1970to1976approximated10percent."TheAnchoragecompositeconsumerpriceindexhasincreasedatanannualrateof4percentsince1960andatalmost"7pe~centsince1970.Inspiteofpossibletemporaryperiodsofpricestability,itappearsthatsubstantialinflationmaybecomearegularaspectoftheeconomicscene.Theextentandpersistenceofinflationarytrendsindicatestheneedtoexaminetheireffectonthecomparisonbetweenhydroelectricandthermalgeneration.Inflationdoesnotaffecthydroandthermalalternativesequallybecausethereisadifferentialsusceptibilitytorisingprices.Theextentofthesedifferentialimpactsisdeterminedbyadjustingthecapacityandenergyvaluesaswellasthehydroprojectcoststoaccountforinflation.Adistinctionhastobemadebetweeninterestandamortizationcostsontheonehandandallotherchargesontheother.,becausetheaffectofinflationonthesetwocategoriesofexpenditureisquitedifferent.Thelattercategoryisaddressedfirst.Amultiplierisdevelopedforadjustmentofannua.lchargesassociatedwithoperatingcosts,fuelcosts,insurance,interimreplacements,andtaxes.Expendituresfortheseitemsarecontinuallysusceptibletorisingprices.Theihitialannualexpenditureassociatedwiththesecostcomponentsinthebaseyearisthevalueused.inthestandardmethodofcomputingpowervalues.Withinflation,ahigherfiguremustbeused,sincetheannualexpendituresincreasefromyeartoyear.Theassumedrateofinflation,thedurationoftheassumedinflation,andthediscountratetogetherdeterminehowlargetheincreasewillbe.Theappropriateadjustmentmultiplierisfoundbycomputingthesumofthepresentvaluesoftheinflatedpayments,anddividingthatbythesumofthepresentvaluesoftheyearlypaymentswithoutinflation.Theresultingquotientisthemultiplierbywhichthefixedinitialpaymentofthestandardmethodmustbeadjustedtotakeinflationintoaccount.lJThroughoutthisreport,lIinflationllreferstoincreasesinthegeneralpricelevel,whilelIescalationllreferstorealpricechangesorchangesoverandaboveincreasesinthegeneralpricelevel.488 Forthisanalysis,inflationisassumedtoprevailforaperiodot15yearsbeyondtheinitialproject'spower-on-linedate.Thisperiodofinflationisassumedtobefollowedbyaperiodofstablepricestotheendofthe100yeareconomiclifeoftheproject.1/Inflationratesof3and5percenthavebeenadoptedasreasonablevalueswithwhichtoexplorethemagnitudeofinflationaryimpact.Thecorrespondingannualexpenditure~ultipliersforadiscountrateof6-7/8percentare1.34and1.64.·Thesecondtypeofcosttoexamineistheinterestandamortizationcharge.Duringthelifeofahydroelectricproject,analternativethermalplanwithalifeofonly_3Dto35yearswillhave.tobereplacedatleasttwice.Eachtimeitisreplaced,itscostwillhaveriseninkeepingwiththecompoundrateofinflation.Themultiplierreflectingtheincreasein,thesecapitalexpendituresresultingfromi-nflationisfoundbydiviaingthepresentworth.oftheinterestandamortizationwithinflationaffectingfuturereplacementsbytheirpresentworthwithoutinflation.Again,inflationisconfinedtothefirst15yearsbeyondpower-onfHnewithstablepricesassumedthere-after.Themultipliersarelob8for3percentinflationand1.15fora 5percentrate.TABLEC-27INFLATIONADJUSTMENTMULTIPLIERS(6-7/8percentdiscountrate,30year,thermalplantlife,15yearperiodofinflation)InflationRate3%5%Cost.Category,VariableCostsCapital~xpenses1.341.081.641.15ThesemultipliersarethenappliedtothevariouscostcomponentsofthepowervaluesandtotheelementsofthehydroprojectcostasshowninExhibitC-4.Notethatthemultiplierforinterestandamortizationofthehydroprojectisunity.Thisoccursbecausethehydroprojectdoesnothavetobereplacedduringtheperiodofanalysisandisthereforenotsusceptabletoinflatingprices.1/.Inflationintheyearspriortopower-on-lineisignoredbecausethereislittledifferentialinflationimpactbeforecostsareactuallyincurred.BattelleinAlaskanElectricPower,March1978,page6-3,reportsthatpricesforthermalpowerplantshaverisensince1970atalmostexactlythesamerateasthatforhydroelectricfacilities.489 FuelEscalationInderiving.powervaluesforuseinbenefitanalys1S,·FERCusespresentdaycostsforthefuelrequirementsofthethermalplant.Evenafterinflationistakenintoaccount,thisprocedureisnotequitableinaperiodofsubstantialfuelcostescalation,whenfuelpricesrisefasterthanthegeneralpricelevel.Whereasahydrodevelopmentwillcontinuetoproduceitsenergyfromfall1.n9waterwithoutcost,athermalplantdependsonfossilfuelsthataresusceptibletorealpriceincreasesaswellastoinflationarytrends.Depletingsupplies,intensifiedenvironmentalcontrols,carteltzedproduction,andtheneedtogofurtheranddeeperforsupplies,alltendtoboostpricesatrateshigher:than~inflation..Fuel011:AsapracticalmattertheworldoilmarketiscontrolledbytheOrganizationofpetroleum.ExportingCountries(OPEC).TheOPECcartelpricingstrategyappearstobebasedontheirperceptionofthemarginalcostsofproductionoftheirnearestcompetitor•.Thispolicyisintendedtomaximizetheirlong-termprofits.11InthefutureOPEC'smostprobablestrategy(assumingthecartelcanbesustainedandnoothersuper-giantoilfieldsarefoundoralternativelowercosttechnologiesaredeveloped)willbetoescalate.itspricesparallelingthemarketrateofinterestoccurringinitswesternworldmarketarea.ThemarketrateofinterestsetsthebasisfromwhichOPECcanmeasureitsopportunitycostandescalatesatapproximately3percentagepointshigherthanthegeneralinflationrateasmeasuredbytheGNPdeflator.Thusforageneral5percentperannuminflationrate,theOPECoilpriceincreaseratewouldbeexpectedtobeabout8percentperannum.IfMexicoentersthecontinentalmarketasamajor.source,itwillprobablyshavepricesslightlytogainmarketentryby'diSplacingMiddleEastcrude,butthengenerallytradeatOPEC'sworldmarketpriceoAnotherpossibilityisthecollapseoftheOPECcartel.IranandSaudiaArabia,thelargestoilproducersinOPEC,arecommittedalongwithmanyotherOPECnationstorapideconomicdevelopmentprograms.Theseprogramsaredependentuponoilexport.revenuesfortheirfund-ing.UndertheumbrellaofOPEC'spricingpolicy:;thereisopportunityandstrongincentivetodevelopsubstantialnewproductivecapacitybothwithinandoutsidethecartel.Theincreaseincapacityimposes11ThisdiscussionoffuelpricebehaviorisbasedlargelyonaMarch1978reportbyBattellePacifi~NorthwestLaboratoriesentitled,AlaskaElectricPower,AnAr'lalysisofFutureRequirements·andSupplyfortheRailbeltRegionandondiscusstonswithWardSwiftofBattelle.490 downwardpressureonprices.ToSoffsetthispressueandmaintainthecartelprice,productionmustbecutbacksomewha,t;principallythiswillfallonthelargestproducers;IranandSaudiaArabiainthiscase.Thustheyarecaught'inadilemmabetweenadecliningmarketshareandtheneedforexportearningsfordevelopmentalprograms.Thissituationcouldleadtopricewarstoregainmarketsharesandthus,;theco11apseofOPECasaneffectivecartel.Pricecuttinghasatheoretlcalfloor-themarginalcostof,produdngthelevelofoutputdemandedatsuchamarketprice.ThiswouldlikelybedeterminedbyMexico,theNorthSeaproducersandthecostsofincreasedproductioninIran.Alloftheconditionscon-'tributingtotheinitialcartelizationwouldstillbepresent,ahighlyconcentratedmarketandveryinelasticcommoditydemand.Thusacollapsemightonlybetemporaryandunderthisscenario,worldpricescould'becomerathervolatile.'Giventhemanyvested(U.S.andforeign)i"te~estsinmaintainingoilprices,amajordownwardbreakinoilpricesisnotlikely.Asacaseinpoint,ifSaudiArabiawentbacktopre-1973prices,andcouldsatisfydemand,(notlikelyatthoseprices)bothNorthSeaandNorth.Slopeproductioncouldbeshutin._Giventhatscenarioandwithoutgovernmentalintervention,U.S.:-andothernations'dependenceonforeignoilwouldincreasemarkedly,domesticexplorationandfielddevelopmentwouldbeseverelycutback,andconsumptionwouldincrease.Althoughexistenceofcontingencypoliciestorespondtosuchacaseareunknown,itishardtovisualizethatveryrigorousgovernmentalinterventionwouldnotoccureitherthroughimportquotasordutiesthatwouldmaintaintheeconomicviabilityofthedomesticindustries.In1977,thedomesticrefineryacquisitioncostofdomesticcrudewasabout35percentlessthanthatofforeigncrude($9.20perbblversus$14.10perbbl).Apricedeclineofgreaterthan3&percentisdeemedhighlyunlikelyforthereasonsoutlinedabove.Coal:CoalpricesinAlaskaappearmuchmorepredictableduetotheabsenceofregulationandthecurrentlylimitedi'nfluenceofmarketabi1ityfactors..Twosourcesof'coalsupplyfortherailbeltregionaremostper-tinenttothisanalysis:'l.:The"HealycoalfieldiscurrentlybeingminedbytheUs1belli",CoalCompanyatabout700,000tons/yearwithplansforexpansionto1.5~illiontonsperyear.ThisminecurrentlysuppliestheGoldenValleyElectricAssociation(GVEA)plantlocatedatHealyandtheFairbanksMunicipalUtilitySysteminFairbanks.491 2.ApotentialfuturecoalsourceistheBelugafieldintheCookInletregion.Thelatterfieldisknowntocontainverysubstantialreservesbutthenewminedevelopmentr~quiredwillbecostlydueto1ackoftranspo,rationfacilitiesandminesupportinginfrastructure.TheHealycoalfieldistheobvioussupplierforfutureinteriorgenerationbasedoncoal.RecentCCilstofcoaldeliveredbytrucktotheGVEAHealyplantis'$0.80/MMBTUandbyrailatFairbanks,$1.15/MMBTU.JjAlthoughtheHealysitemaybeabletoexpandtoperhaps200MWcapacity,itslocation4.5milesfromMt.McKinleyNationalParkmayrestrictfurtherdevelopmentduetoairqualityconsiderations.ThusfurthercoalfiredexpansionintheupperrailbeltmostprobablywillnecessitateplantlocationintheNenanaarea~longtherailline.Inthiscase,additionalcostsaboveminemouthcosts,willbeincurredincludingtipplecosts(approximately$0.11perMMBTUcurrently)andAlaskaRailroadtariffs.Thelattermaybereducedif"unittrainsweretobeemployed.TheUsibelli.Coal"Mine,Inc.hasindicatedthattheyexpecttheirpricestoriseatabout7percentperannum.Thispricingscheduleappearsreasonableifitisassumedthata 5percentperannumgeneralinflationratecontinuesanda 2percentagepointmarkupescalation.isappropriatefortheresourceowner.TheBeluga/Susitnacoalfieldisan'obvioussourceofsupplyforcoalfiredgeneration.Thereservesareverylargeandcapableofsupportingaworldscalemineforexportandminemouthpowergeneration.Thecoalissubbituminous(RankC)andofrelativelylowheatingvalue(7,100BTU/lb)atrun-of-minebutquitelowinsulfur(0.15percenttypical).Coalpreparationincludingwashinganddryingcouldraisetheheatingvalueto9,000STUllb.Someofthecoalwi11beoftoo-lowaqualityforexportbutwouldneverthelessbesuitableforminemouthpowergeneration.FuelCostAssumptionsTocalculatetheimpactofrelativechangesinthepriceoffuelsonprojectfeasibility,adjustmentsaremadetothepowervaluesuponwhichthecalculationofpowerbenefitsisbased.'Theperiodfrom1978totheinitialprojectpower-an-linedateislookedatseparatelyfromtheperiodafterPOL.Fortheinitialperiod,theestimated1978fuelpriceiscompoundedattheassumedannualescala-tionratetogivetheanticipatedconstantdollarfuelcostatthetimeofpower-on-line.Theenergyandcapacityvaluesarethenrecal-culatedusingstandardFERCprocedures.Forthepost-POLperiod,amultiplierisusedtoadjusttheenergyvalueusingproceduresidenticaltothoseusedtoadjustforinflation.Theperiodofescalationislimitedtotheyearspriortothe30thyearafterpower-on-line.Thirtyyea"rscorrespondstotheservice1ifeoftheinHialthermalplant..11September,1978492 Threesamplecasesareanalysed.First,forbothcoalandoil,thereisanassumptionthatfuelcosts'escalateat2percentperyearbetween1978andthe30thy'earafterpower-on-line,afterwhichthereisnoadditionalescalation.The2percentrateisselectedasrepre-sentativeoflong-termrealpriceincreasesartsingfromdepleting,moredistantsources,increasingenvironmental.safeguardsinextra-ction,processingandhandling,andanticipatedproducingnationpricingpolicy.(Refertothepreviousdiscussionoffuelpricetrends.).Thesecondcaselooksatnoescalationpriortopower-on-linefollowedbya3D-yearperiodof2percentannualescalation.Thiscaseisdesignedtoreflectthepossibilityofanear-termsofteningofthe-marketforoilduetoslackening~efu~ridorincreasedsupplyintheshort-term..".'Thefinalcaseexplorestheimpactofrealoilprice'declinespriortopower-on-line.Animmediate35percentdropinpriceisassumed,withnochangeinpricethereafter.ThisscenarioisincludedtoshowthepossibleeffectonprojectjustificationofabreakupoftheOPECcartel.ExhibitC-4showshowthesevariousadjustmentsaremadetotheenergyvalueprovidedbyFERC.TestResultsTheresultsofthesensitivitytestsforinflationandescalationarepresentedonFiguresC-10andC-ll.Twopercentannualescalationinthepriceofcoalresultsina55percentincreaseinnetbenefitsandthebenefit-costratiobecomes1.64.Inthemostextremecoal-firedcase,2percentfuelescalationwith5percentinflation,thebenefit-costratiorisesto2.17.Theworstcaseanalyzedintermsofproject..justificationiswiththeoil-firedalternativeandasudden35pe·rdent'dropinoilprices.Theresultingben~fit-costratiois0.85.-',SummaryInsummary,ithasbeenshownthatthebenefit-costratioissensi-tivetothesourceoffinancing,tothediscountrate,tothetypeofalternativegeneration,toconstructiondelays,andtoinflationandfuelcostescalation.Itisrelativelyinsensitive,on.theotherhand,tovariationsinloadrequirementforecasts.Underthefullrangeofforecasts,Susitnahydropowerisneededassoonasitisavailable.Despitethesensitivityofprojecteconomicstomanyoftheseparameters,thedegreeofsensitivityisnotsufficient·tomaketheprojectuneconomic,exceptinonecase.Onlyifoil-firedgenerationweretobeconsideredtheappropriatelong-termalternativetohydro-powerandifthepriceofoilweretosuddenlyfalldrasticallyasa 'resultofworldmarketforceswouldnetbenefitsofSusii'tnahydropowerdevelopmentbelessthanthoseofthethermalgeneration'alternative.493:.:.•". 300FigureC-I0.SENSlrlVITYTOINFLATIONANDESCALATION-COAL200-U>Z0:r.....J150~~U>l-LLWz.WII)I-WZ(COAL-FIREDALTERNATIVEl-----.-- -~------ --- ---.-_.------o3INFLATIONRATE(%)5494 200250!535%PRICEDECLINE2%ESCALATIONAFTERPOLFigureC-IISENSITIVITYTOINFLATIONAND'ESCALATION-OIL'(OIL-FIREDALTERNATIVE·)----------------oo50100300350(f)~u.UJZUJm~UJZ(i)zo...J...J150~=:-50INFLATIONRATE(%)495 CORPS OF ENGINEERS U S ARMY WATANA GENERATION , I •.J AI ".II •1I ,IA iA 1 I IA lA I/\.11\~~~~I ~I,.,iJ\r\lI\~11\~,IA II\.tA-tl A IA ,. V \...'Vi\,~,,,,,""y ~\1 V V ~/'V Y.,400 200 100 o 1950'1951 .1952'1953'1954'1955'1956'1957'1958'1959 '1960'1961 '1962'1963'1964 .1965'1966 .1967'1968'1969 '1970'1971 '1972 '1973 '1974 '1975' 1976'1977 300 500 .... II: :I: ~!C(600 ~ '"L.J ::l; § >-(.!) Il: ILl Z ILl WATANA STORAGE '"1 r r r r r , , , , , ,r r , \ I ~1 \1 '\1 '\1 I~I 1\1 \I ~\1 1\1 \1 1\'\1 ~I \/1\1 1\/\~ '\I \\J Y V V ,,,'4 y y ,V V V V y y V \I \I ~' ).Y •, I l 1\\\ I \'\)II 1\\\J \ \ \1\/)•\.V ,\I \\I \/),1 •V, 5,00 4,00 3,40_1950 I 1951 '1952'1953 '1954'1955 '1956'1957'1958'1959 '1960'1961 '1962 '1963'1964'1965'1966 '1967'1968'1969'1970'1971 '1972 '1973'1974 '1975'197:6'1977 8,000 P't-9,624 ~9,00 u c( oog 7,00 ILl 6,bo (.!) <t Il:g (J) .Ilo .0 00 SOUTHCENTRAL RAILBELT AREA,ALASKA SUPPLEMENTAL FEASIBILITY STUDY UPPER SUSITNA RIVER 8ASIN RESERVOIR OPERATION a ENERGY OUTPUT WATANA DAM ALASKA DISTRICT,CORPS OF ENGINEERS ANCHORAGE,ALASKA NOVEMBER,1918 PLATE C-I CORPS OF ENGINEERS U.S.ARMY ..., a::r tl. ~!~ § >-t!) a::wzw DEVIL CANYON GENERATION 600.n ~~O ~ 400 ~I A "~ 300 ,-'lAo..,~V'11.N ~Vl l/'I.~~1\1 ~'~A1 A /I\.~..iJ\-"-""..,:,\..0'"\.J..Ili"·...IV "-J...............V"~ 200 ...r , 100 0-1950 '1951 '1952 '1953'1954'1955 '1956 '1957'1958'I959T I960 '1961 '1962'1963 '1964 1 1965'1966 '1967'1968 1 1969 '1970'·1971 '1972"1973'1974 .1975 '1976'1977 DEVIL CANYON STORAGE 1951 '1952 '1953'1954'1955' 1956'1957'1958'1959'1960 '1961 '1962'1963'1964 '1965'1966'1967'1968'1969 "1970'1971 '1972'1973'1974 '1975 '1976 '1977 /.;: LL 1,250 W 1.000....a:0 «( ,j:l..I §.,g 750 ...... w 500 t!)<a::250 0t- (f)0 1950 I 1-, 1 ~\1, SOUTHCENTRAL RAILBElT AREA,ALASKA SUPPLEMENTAL FEASIBILITY STUDY' UPPER SUS1TNA RIVER BASIN RESERVOIR OPERATION a ENERGY OUTPUT DEVIL CANYON DAM ALASKA DISTRICT,CORPS OF ENGINEERS ANCHORAGE.ALASKA NOVEMBER,I978 PLATE C-2 C~4~~~~~~.C~~4.~~~~~ec~~ccccW~~or~~w~W~~~~Q%QZ~.~~~~W~~~_~_~~~=_=W~==_~=~==~=__= _~%~%~~~~~Q~~~~%~-%~~~~~~~~•••~.~.~~~~C~~C~~.O.OOO~~~O~~~~.~~~~~~~~~~~~~-~~~~~~~--~---.............................~~~Q~~~~~~~Q~O~O~O~QOOOOO~C~......,-'.'.~~~~~.~~.~~~O~O~?~O~O~OaQ~~o~_~.~~~~~~.~Q_~~~_Q~~~O~QO.~~~.4- -~"._••-1\1oQf\I....,"~ ~-~~~.-C4~,e,••••UIIlUC••""~.•CZe~~Z.-w_·~•.~t-f\I~"'~~••,-.::.:''''":Ie1l•.JCoIllol'..'......I""cec~.:;:.~1;~Jll~ii~1~'J1.l~~~~~~~c.c~~~cr~w~·~w~~~~W~wQw=rooU~~~%~U~U~U~zu~u~.u'~~~uu~uuu""••~""_••~_"N••~~""~~"~••" ".~••••~.~ce~~c~_"''''~.~~••o"..,.-~__.,._,.'~_:,..,~:t'-~~,.(I<~-~:;:~,:lI':)=--==-~-:>-;....It:J~..,.~~\I~~~~ ~~CI'~0'.;0'"~cc~CQCC'"::0..~------~-~~~---~~~~~~~~~~~~-~·A~Al~111~~~~~~lll:ll~1~~:1~~~~~;t~;J~:~::::~:;~~~:~:g:~~~~_~~~~_~__~~~__~~~.~'~~~N~~_~~Z~~~~~Zz~~r"~·z2~~~~-~~-~~~~~~-~~C~~.__~..~,,,,.....',;,,--.-............~-P.-.z..a.I_-.~-............z -4...Z~~Q.~'~Z2Z.~~z~,a~Qz~~-Z~~~~z~z-~~:;:§,·~·-r·~·tJ'#-'!t~..~~~~?:;~~'~t~'-':f.-.~-,~..'~'~zi~z~~.~~~~~~~~~~~~~,~~w~-~~~~~~.~~?k%%~~~~~~4~C¥~~~%_~~%_~~?-:'~-~~~~---~~~~,~~.-~~~~-~~~.H·....-:~~._.~............-'-~~_.............·.........M.~"(',)....._~.ul.I,na,t.....&I:.aJ:.&.I..,'.AI....,tLIuJI&JI.LJlaJ..::t"'"OW~~..;.~..Ill:_.:.::"'r;t:.:a.~~-:x-10~rc;I;%"'k:r~~"Q.,3;QCt"':»:Q""~:.I-.',"..j:>._ .'.cc '..~:>.~:,?)~~~~::~~~~~",~g).'~.~~~-~~-~~:;-_~='~~~~~~~~~~z~;:Z~%Z4~Z2'~~~Z-~2~W~tt~'~_.;-~~-;;i.~~~~~~~-~'.~'.~.'~-~.=~~.~..~-~e.~~.~3;t~ ~t.;t;ti;tt.'#~;t~t;t;t;t;t~;t~;t~~.'.!499.r.t£JtlJ .Jo ••"IJ 1U'1 I ••1'f9j-Jca...:CLi,,","-.Plit.to 41611.fl.7!t·JJU 19••• ·IJF·Pt ..·Su~1 t ...."LID!:')1'1""-1"';5:,·...If "·.....1 "\'(,10'(.btl.1I.:».b ."'.lH 1 '1;5 •. 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I \,,I TOIAL ,&</8.2S&9.'&98.234&.'81l.2&49. ,I , ADO I TlO;iS ,I , hYORO I - - -•I -••-I STEA""t.Lf.C , - - --1 - - --I CO~ltl.Tlillltll.E I - - -- ,114..50 .50 497.'100..!i0 .50 438.v.III~SEL , _ _ __1 • • -- ,g ,I , RET1~EMf..IS 1 I 1 HYVRO , - - -•1 ,OO --..1 :;Tl,fr,,1"fLEC I - - --,-••.,.-." COt".8.TURbINE I - • --,.- -•I • • - OltSEL 'oo - --,oo - -_.,2..(to .00 0.," ---------------"1 ,GIIV~&kESOURCES'b98.25&9.1 812.2843.'910.3087.,I ', CAl'"t'S.MA~bIN'0.1'15 1 G.2dll ,0.326 ,,,,I I HE~EkVE \"lEI).1 1II&~I.158.1 172.,,, LOS~ES 1 29.38.1 32.42.')4~46. 1 .'1 .I. ~..ci I'(j,::iOl.JI(CES ,!523.;,51.'62C!.2801-.l ,704.3041. '"TRAlloiFEREO ,IJ.1 O.,O. II'i III SURPLUS ,-&2.,0.,1 ,-10.0.'18.o. PEAII --P~AII LOAl)'''Gf;NER)to f11~G cAPAcny NEQIIIRE~IEIIlTS(MEGAi'll TTS) I'PLIF --MA'XIMLoM PlLA,.T UTILUAllu-'FACTUN Iof'UF --IoCTuAL'PL"""uTlLlZATllJ.1 FlCTuH Ef.EHGy --G~Nt.RA fJlO",,:'N't.UAL ENE'lGY kEQUIREMENTS (IULLIONS OF KILOWATT-HOURS) ,;,:(",:,~.,i,:,~~\0~Ai{Attiht,Lt_ ""EU f"Ilott ..r...S f~I~"~..s CloSt:l --_£OIUM LOAC 6"Q~'M LTE",~'EAIl:1"'f~.' .uTE~~~~.»0.1~1~aJ ij.S.-l~'~. CRITltAL PElt 1 0 i) ----------~-_._--------_.~----....--_.-_._------------~~~~.-_._-----_.._._---_._.__._--_. I 19111-1"'7'*I 1979-19110 I 14 aO-I'f;:l1 I PEU "'PoF &P.,.,E ..ElelOY I Pt.A'1l.",PUF "PUF EI.EWGY I PeAK MPIlF APuF ENEff6Y1---,-----------_._._--/------.-.------~------I--~---__e.----...-...... ------_.-··---~-I I I Kt,'4UJ.wE','E.,HS I 18...&04.I 197.lilt"'.I Z09.~1 •• ~-----_··"----·I I I kE:'lIl.IIlCES I I I (EX 1STltJG I I I h'tUFIO I o..5(1 ~;O 1/.I 0.'.So •So O.I o•.50 •SO O• STt.A.'1/ELEC I It u..75 ._:t-,b33.I Ill1..75,•'tl &92.I 1111.•75 .75 7U • Cor.rtl.Tli~"JI.E I 20'1..';)f1 ••t)111,5.I i!1I9..50 .10 1113.I 209.•50 .11 207 • iHESEL ,,qi)..10 .\rD O.I "ta..10 .1l0 (I.,4ta..10 •00 O•,,I TUT&L ,365.llib.1 31>5.875.1 365.93U. I,1 1 Au01TIOI~S I I 1 HYUIlO I ----,I -- - -I STf&I~/ELEC I ---·1 ·. . .I .-- co...".TUI~"lI~E I ---·1 ·---1 DIt,SEl.I - - - - 1 ·- - -1 VI I I , 0 RET lREME.HS ,I ,-HYIIIW ,----1 ·---, S TI:&,~'ELEC I ----,·.-., C0.<01:1.TUR~FIE I .--·I -- - -I IIII:SEL 1 -- -·I ".---, I ,, ---------------1 I , ~ROSS RESOuRCES'365.lUb.I 365.1175.I ,565.930. I ,1 CA~~ES.~A~~I~'O.q~3 I 0.852 ,0.746,I I wE:;E~\lc kEu.,qo.1 49.I 52. 1 I I LOSSES ,'I.12.'"10.'13.,.10.14.,.,/1 t~E r kESOU~CES ,310.804.I 306.8b2.'/30Z.916. .'I I I~AN:;FERED ,O.,o.,o.,"1 I ,, SURPLUS 1 lZb.O.,109.o.,93.O. IIEAK --P~,AI\LOAIJ/GE.r.E.UT!N(;C"PAC'i\y ~EQUIREI'!ErjTS(HEG"j1jAnS) ~PUF ~-HAXJ.MU~PLA~l U1JLIl~rIbN FACTOR A~UF --ACTuAL ~LAN'U'ILIZATIO~FACTOk £1.£I(G1 --GtNt~ATIO../Ai~IHJAl Er~EkGY RELlUIREMEiHS(MI/-l.IONS OF KIl.OWA.n-HOURS) AWE,:A••C"O"I"E "ICHtJWAbE 'loSt.:~--..fDlu"LlJlO ..ROff'" hT~"IIt.'fAR:I~...i!. i\lOTEli:'"u".]0.1~1~.,U.S.-I~9•• C'H .~,Ie.L P E<If I 0 0 --~-.--------------------------~-------~-----------------~--------_.__._._-----------_...I 1901-1;,8oi!I l'Ill'i!-1983 I ;.:19113··...84· I PEAII "Puf .APo.:/f E"EIorGy i PtAI<",PIJF APuF E..E ..GY I PEA'I<~i'JF APuF ENEil'Y1------------~--------/----------_._---------/----_.....----_.-~._._. --~~~-.~..---~.,I I "ElHflI?E:~blrs I 74'1.leal.I 795.35c?1.I 8StI.37"1.-..-------------/I I kESOui'CES I I I tkhTHlb I I I "YDR"I '.H..:;0 .5:<lI 204.I 53..50 .50 ~Oll.I 53..so •50 2011 • lITt'-"/ELEC I 'H.•70;.7'5 H2.i 51..75 .75 332.I lSI.•75 .42 9i3 •co.·..,.TuotdH;E I 78 'J..~O •.51f 271tt.I ilOt..511 •32 ~250.I 691 ••50 .35 2lt~l • Olt5tL I 17..15 .0141 u.I 17..15 •00 o.I 15..15 .00 o• I I I lOIAL I 'Ull.liSI.I 928.2765.I lilll.3817 • I I I AODITIOfolS I I I "YuRll,I ----I -- - .I ltTl:.A""lLEC I ----I 2011..75 .20 150.I Clor·IB.TlitiuI:I£I 16..~O .~.79.I 100..50 .50 11311.I III OIESEL I .---I - ---I0III~ RET tREME'·:S I I I HYORO I --..--I -- - .I ·loTtA ol/ELfc I - ---I -.--I CO,~d.TUillll/ljE I - ---I 15..110 .00 o.I 8.•00 .00 o• Olt-SEL-I ----I 2..01).00 o.,-. I I , ----------~-:--.,I I ~HuS~~E.OURCES'928.3330.i 12111.35711.I 120l.3817. I·I I CAP HES.MAR~I~i·0.l5l I 0·.523 I 0.1114 /.I I .RESERVE REtI.I 18'5 •I 199.I arlo /.,, LOliS~S I 37.4.9.,40.53.,.43.5&. I I I '"n HESOIJHCES ,70b.3261.I 972.3Sil.,947.37&1.,,I TRAN&FEilEO I o.I'o•.I o. I I , I I , SURPLUS I -35.O.I 177 •o.,97.o. i"L'.AK --PtA",LOAO/ll;tltEIfATING CAPACITY REQUIRE~EiIoT:HMEGAIIA"'S) MPUF --MAXIMUM PL~~T UlILJZA1IU~FACTUR APlJf --.~~TIfAI.PI..\;"T uTJLIZA HON f ACTUR ENERGY --G~NtRATb~~/A~NUAL E~ER6Y HEYUIRlMENTS(MILLIONS OF KILO~ATT-HO~QS) A4EA:FAI~~A~AS ....' f ..I ..~A:;"S CAS.,:l _.HOI;''',LOA.D'6ltt_T" l~T~HTIt.'EAR:1q~Z." NOIES:~~Y.30.1976 .,U.S.-19.4. tWlflC'..P E lC 10 0_...•.._-_._..-..._...~..._...._••...•._.._._.._..-'-.----._----.._--'---_.,.~.._--_._----~.-._. 1------ 1 1 PEAK TOUL LOSSES o. o. 16. II. 723. 371.o• uta. 1094. ,1094. ·1016. ENEif5Y .~o .15 .21 .00 .00 _.--._---~.- .~o .75 .50 .10 ••C/O 1iilS-US4 "PIIF APbF Ii!. 61. o. 5. 41. l4~. '0. ltv. 209. 4&•. 365. 28&. 360. 0.4.&7 / ,PEAIl 'I '1024.I 1 1 /o., ll3.1 311./o., i 1039., 1 1 / / 1 / / / / 1 1 I / "1,1139./ / 1 / I ,,/ 15./, I '102/1.1 / / / / 0.•/ hERGY____a_e.,••'---- .~o .7~ .17 .00 .~o .1~ .50 .111 1962·1983 /olPUF APUF 12. "II. 62. 58. e33. o. Ull. 20 ... 4&. 3&5. 3&5. 295. 0.5&& ,,~. , ,I 1 1 ~./ I i;7.:;./,,, o., 12J.I 2&2., II., / 985.1 /, 1 / 1 1 1 I / 1 1,. I 1 985.1 1., 1 1 / 15.I,'I ".7~• '/ E."ERGot ,PEA"_.......I·~··-- .,0 .15.1" •IIIi .~o .75.,0 .10 no1-1 ..ol "PuF AP~IF o. 1&. U. 55. lli. II. 110. 20<;. 4b. 3&5. 3&5. .::Q9. 0.&::11 RE tiREMEI\.S I1VOI<O ;,Tt.Ar,/tLEC 1..l!,i-ol,.TuRti Ii..:: OIt.SU . AuoiTlOlfS ".YI.H~O STt.AM/flEC CO.l6.tU~IlINE OIESEL "E&l)lIktES, E.1~Tl~G I nYuRO , STEA;"EltC , CO ..ri.Tuioi ..lhE I uIESEL , / /, / / / I / / / / / / I / "EsEo<VE REll •. ----,--_..._-_../ o<E:lU1I<E"'b',T5 ,·-.--.~-_·-·~-·-I .~~~·__··_--·_••-I GR.uSS RESOURCES'./ C.Af>""S."".RG IN/ / 1 1 1 1 .'lIi::i "'E:)'J~QCE&, 1 TRAN:.FERED 1 1 I, SUI'IPLUS 1 UI S PEAl(-.;PE""LOAO/&a::!\IERA U/liG CAPAC I n RE"'UIRE~IElfrs (MESAd TTS) ~'PUF --"'UIMul\4 PL,,:.oT uliLIZATION FACTOR . APIfF --ACTUAL PL"'"VlILlZ"nONFACTOfl EwEwGV --G~N~~AII~4/A"'~UAL E~EkGY ~EQUIWfMENt~(MILLIONSOF KILO~ATT-HOU~S) AilE':O\1.rHo..AbE "SCHONA ..E CASt.:,Z ••"'EUlu,"Luao 'lUI""" l~f~~ll~'~A~:I~~i. ~OTES:~uv~cjO.l~le .,U.S ••1994. C Ii I TIC "L P E fi 100 ._~-----_._-----------~------~------~--~----------_._----~-----~-~-------------------_..;. /---------et--_"-.--~~-I 1 1 pEA" I 7'11. '. O. O. 3817. 37,,1. i!04. 923 • lb91~o. 3817 • 5&. 3761. ENERGY .50 .SO •75 .42 .50 .35 .15 .00 .00 .00 1""3-19811 "';>JF AP\JF o. 97. 1$. 43. 53. i'.H • 691. 1'5 • 8S0. ~IS.' 907. 12H1. ll0l. 0.4110 1 35.H.I I I I lOll.I .532.I l250.I O.I I 2185.I I I I 350.I 43B.I I I I I I O.I O.I I I 3574.I I I I I I 53.r, I 3S21.I I I I I O.I I E",ENG1 1 PEA'I( -----~_./------ •ItIt .00 .00 .1t0 .50 .50 •75 .75 .511 .32 .15 .00 .75 .20 .'50 .50 l'1t\'i-1983 "P'JF'APuF.--- IS. i. 40. 53.51. aot. 17. 1 1 PEAl< 1------I I 795. I I' I I I 1 I I I 9l8. I ,I I I lOll. I 100. I I I I I I I I I I III II., I I 0,.523 I I 199. I I I I 972., I Oo' I I o.I 177. 79. 4,9. l04. J3l. l71b. u. leal. 3251. 3330. 3281. E,.EI<&,1 .:i0 .5:11 .75 .75 .:>11 .$" •15 .Ulill .~O .!;t<iI 1901-1'1182 "'Puf APuf O. 37. I~. 5l. 51. 78'1. 17. 9111; 711~. 9l8. -35. 1I.~Sl HIS. SUilPLUS 10lAL AODITlO',S HTuRy . :.TH"/E.LEC Clll·\,8.TUl(dINE OIt:SEL RET1REMEt:S HYDRO :.Tt.'''1/ELfC CO"d.TU~i:lhE lJltSEL ' I<Ewlll Q E'!f.,lfS kESOUfolCES t 1lI:;TING HTDR\J :.Ti:.A'!IELEC CO,·;;'.TuttdH;E OIf.stL TRA"'SFEilED ----.-----------1 LOSStS 1 I I 1 I I~ I I I I I I 1 i I I 1 I I I--------..------1bHUS~~r,O~RCESI 1 CAP,l<E'S.MAR6111,f 1 I I 1 1 '.ET l<ES!llJilCES I 1 I' 1 1 I ,RESERVE REioI. urg Pi~K -~PtA~'LOAO'~t~f~ATING CAPACITY REQUIREME~T~(kEGANA'TS) MPUF --MAXIM~MPL.~l UTILJZAIIUM FACTOR APlfF --ACTuAL PL.\.''''t.uTlLIZAT!ON,fACTuR ENEH6Y --GtNtRAT~O~/A~NUAL E~ERGY HEYUIRlMEN1S(MILLltiNS OF KlLO~ATT"HO~QS) "·;':.';;~;i:,,;;',;~,~};i.';;ji\6j_i~~i,,'fi ~J,ik.~&ijYii1f'"tNr ." &~E&:FAI"I.'U'4S f .....~A:;"S·.r...st:::~--~·EOI"'i4 ,"OAU'GRe,,1N 1.,Tfitllc.rEAR:Iq"Z. NOI fS:':\lV .50,1918 .,u.i.-1994. C It I rIc &L fEll 100--_.------_..-...-..••.....•••._-_..._--------_...._---_._-------_._--~..-----.------_._. I 1901-1"~i!.1 19&i-1983 I UiS}-1984 I PEAK ;"PuF APlIF E.~E"6Y I PEA ...IolpuF APUF E'-ERG\'I PEAK ,:P\lF &PlIF ENEiI..\,,:._------------~-.~----.I-~----.....------------1------.-_.-_.-.----.-. .-------..------,I ., wEQUi;'E"'Eo·,TS I ii!l."1ii./ .e33.·llli"./24S.lli1a. ---------------,// ICE&')I'f<CES I // E.•I"Tlr~G /// "Y",RO /\I..!:l0 .,0 O./ O••510 .'510 o.I o••50 .510 (I • SlEA"/ELtC /11 b..7'5 •15 Ii!>./11(1 •.75 •7'5 723./ltv ••75 .75 723 • .co-.ri.Tuh"IhE /20'0..~o •1 01 e&o2./20 ....50 •17 317./209 •.50 •21 371 • ulESEL I 4t>..10 •IIV (I.I 4&•.10 .00 O.I 4&•.•10 .00 O• //i lOUL /3&5.9115.•/365.1039./3651.·1094. /I / AOO1TIOI~S //I "\'LI~O I ----/----/ l>lCAM'E,L.EC ./----I ----/ CO-lEl.TU~~HIE'/----/-- --/ U'I OIESEL /----/----/ 0 .~..//I U'I R{TIREMEI\.S I ,·1 'HOkO 1 --··I ·-·.1 . "TtAI./t:LEC I ---_./·.·.I l.(J'·lb.TuRtiI ..d'/--··1 ·.·-,5..00 •00 o• lJItSEL /.-··1 ·---,---- I I I .~-~------------I 1 , ·GRUSS RESOURCES'3&5.9851.I 5&5.10]9•./360..1094. .,I I I ~A~~~S.~4RGIN/O.&~l 1 O.5&b I 0.4&1 I I I .ICE.SEt<VE REQ.·I 55.,518 •I 61. I /··1 LOSSES ~U.15.•I I·Z.15.I 12 •.16. I I / I~e'i ",E;jIJlJ.QC-E&.'.~~9 ••7"."~295 •1024.I 28&.1018. I I / lRA~l>FERED I O.I II.I o. I I'I I I I SUlo/PLUS 1 16.0.I 6i!.O.I 41.O. PEat(••~EAK LOAlJ/(gNERA T If';G CAPACI TY REIJUIRE~oEr ...TS (ME6&/1&TTS) ~PUF --MAXIMUM PLA~T UTILIZATION FAC10R APIIF .-AC1UAI.PlA.;jl ullLllATION FACTUI( E,;EwGY --Gt.Nt.IU T IO·.../.N.WAL E"EkGY ckEQUII(E,MEIHS(MILLlQNS OF KILOIiA TT-HO,;"S) AWEA:A .C>lO"A ..E A .•I::"',,,£..e C..5~:i!-·...£IHu"LUAu GkOtil" P.T£HTlt.'EA~:,'19"'2. NuTt::S:",(;Y.30.1971:-e fUU.S.-.~'''. CRITICAL P E iiI 0 0 ------------------------~--~---~-------_.-----------------._---------_..--._--...----_._~ ----------·,.---1 I I PtAI( I··•••• bROS~RESOURCE&I 1205. 1 CAP ~fS.~A~GI,,'0.333 I ~ESEwvE HEw.1 220. . 1 LOSSES 1 45. 1 ~t!~tSOUkCES '~34. 1 90'1. .. o. 70. 4&57. 4717. SUI • ii59. 1958 •o. 4727. 4057. £'-EIoI5'.•_--_._. .50 .S& .20 .00 .' .~Il .15.So .15 ---- 1980-1987'"""IJ~.A'PIlF J o. 5Z. 90. 134. 1156. il5;. 5. 1 £~£i<G''1,PtAIl...__._.I~-----, 4329.1 101.1&., 1 1 21>4.1 140S •., 2116.I' O.1, 3124.,lIISi., I 301.1 363.,,,, I I, O.1 O.1, i'4394.,1452., "0'.385, ,2ti2 • 1 ~5.,., 4329.1 l13lJ. 1, I, '0.1 .50 .50 .75 .~4 •50 .i8 .15 .00 .50 .50 .75 .20 .00 .00 .00 .00 19&5-1'111~ "PLIF '''UF 31. 10. 49. .91b. 81. 201. 51. lSI. ooti. IS. 244. liU5. 1452. 0.48'8 1 1 .o.,, O.1 1113. a·;'Ol.'1159. 1 4uOI.I 1 I I lUll.1 III>~·.1 21>15.I II.1 1 3982.1 1 1 1 1 1'1.1 1 1 1 1 I U.'1, 1, 41l~1., '1,,, I ~O.,, ------_..,.._._-- •~D •~i3S .3... .ow ~IUD .5ill .<10 .so .~O .75.'U .15 19b4-1~8'I .'IPuF ,p".JJF E ..e",Y I PEA.II o. 3U. 1,. 18. 53. 251. "8.5. 15. liOi. 1, 1 1 1SuRPLUS TOTAL RET1l<Er~eN.S "'O~O &TEA.4IELEC (;Ul~".TURd I ..E oIt:SEL 'OOHIO..S. "YIIRO 5.Tc.AIol/ELEC CO~i~.TU~filNE IiltSEL Iff loll j ict::"'E i.T S-----------_.../ THANSFEREO ----------~---,-I ",t:soullces I EXhTI:'h.I hYI.IR')I STtA·.../ELEC i I.lJ.!~.TI.IHbINt::I 1I1t.SEL I I I 1 1 '1 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 1 1 VI ~ PEAK .-PEAl<.lOAO/-s.:t~RA T1NG CAPACITY kEQliIR£ME~TS (MEGAL'l'TTS) ~PUF --MAX1~UM pl.~T OTTLIIAIIU ..FACTOR APUF ...ACTllAl PLA··iI UTILIZATION .FACTOM E.jENGr --Gl:r~tHArlO'\.'....l'llJAL Ei~ENG'fiEQUIREMENTS(MILLIONS OF KIL01lAn.hQullS) ____________-.:.~-"-~~±2__';.;;;2,:··:i-~-;ili;ii,;;;:;i(r'_!.)l;iil'·0~~}i:xrilli<;~ii:A"'~~':!li':~,~:mI!ll'·A:!!\PI!:II·.(.".·:'.··.., A~E.:F~I~dA~~$.F.\i~I1.t·;"S CASt.:.C!••M[DluN L~AO.RO"T" J~'f~Tlt'EAR:.Q~2.·.. ;,ul~8:N~V.jui 1918 AI u.~.-1994. CillTICAL P E ..1 0 O.---"------------_._-----...._--_..._.__...._._----------~------_.-.-----_._-------_._-_._-.,'" I PEA",------ 10Ul ~~----_··_~-~~·-I I'CEl.IUl~£·,t:ojh I O. US4. 19. 1254. 121'3. Cl • 1018. 254. O• 1213. .50' .~5 .14 .00 •50 .75 .50. •10 64. O. 286. O• cll/. c04. 22 • 350. 43&. 43b. 0.523 72. 14. I 1193.I I I I O.I 723.I 313.I .11.I I 103&.I I I I If,./ I I I I I I / I I I Ull.I I I I I. I 18.'I t· 1193.~. I I I I O.I .20 .50 •75 .18 :00 . • •50 .15 .50 .10 .lS 68. 14. fl2. o. db. 100. 33". 354. 2t2. o• 110. 204. 2i? O.6t11 , 1l3.?/ / / / fl./ 725./ <li&./o./ I' 1149.I I / - I I / • I I I I I / u./ I, 1149.I I I I / I U.I I lUc.I I I I I O./ ___a_ea.,._/------.-------._._--•• •~o .7'5 .~4 •.UU .vo.011 .~O .75 .~U .lll 1904-19S~I l~a5-19&6 ~l~86·1~87 ."1PLF APuF E'.e ..G'I PE"I(·~puF AP\iF flle ..GY'I PEAK kP"F APOF Er.E~&' Ci. o. 13. 24. &5. i!58. \/. 110.. 20<1. ·qb. 36u. c?5~. 33&. 0~3110 RETlIlEJ4E~:1~ HYlIRJ. :;TU:~/ELtt Cou"-lB.TUHilli~E. uJESEL ADOlT lOfoS •",YLlR() IITH"'/£LEC ·COM".TlJR~!tjE Ol£SEL K£~OUNCES I F.ll t:i T l'~G I hYUllO / :>1E.~t/ELEC ./ COolll.Tli~IlJ:l',E / L!1t.~EL / I I / / / / / / I / /. I / / / 6NUS~~ESOuilCESI / ~~p liE'S."'ARGi~1 / ~EIIEHVE REU./ I lOSSES'/ ..'/ NEl kESOURCE'S ./ ./ lNAfol:iFEREO I / I SuNPLllS / --_·'··-_···..---1 --·--.----~..--~I UIo...... '~~AK-~PEAK LOAD/&E~ERATJ~~CAP~~ilY kEQUIREMENTS(MEGAWA1TS) MPlJF --MA_IMUM PLANT UTiLIZAfluN FACTOR APUF --"CT~AL PL.NT UTILIZ.TIO.FACTOR E~ERGY --.GENtW.1Ju~/A"~UAL E~£RGY RE~UlkEMEN1S(MlLLIO~SOF KJLOWATT-hOU~S) bE A:A'.ChO,,".E ,,~c~n~abE C~St:.~--~EOlu~LOID 6~O~T" J"'ltJIJ lr fEAa:l""~. ~OTtS:~UV.3u.1978 .,u.S.-1994. C"ITICAL P E ic J 0 0 --------.-------------------------------------------------------------_._--------~-_.-...1 1",07-a 98e 1 1988-1989 1 19~9-1990 1 I'EAI\";PuF "'P;JF [,.EIfGy I'PEAK :"PuF·APuF E...ERGy 1 Pt;AK "PliF APuF [NERGY,----------'._-_._._~_.,----------------------,------.-.-----.._....- -.--------------1 1 1 ..E"IJl~i"iEi.'S 1 11211.<198:'.1 1192.5J •.5.1 lC&4.5&41. ---~-----------i .I , w£lo(luRCEO)I I I E.1;)TINb I I , HYUt<U I 134..~u _50 5111.i 13Ci..50 .50 510.,134..50 .50 510. ,:'TU·uELEC 1 lI'itl.•75 __3 ~1I13.1 1043..75 .58 .5254.I b4$•.75 .bb 3145. (;O~l!:l.TURtlll,E ,tl55.•;0 •~4 1780.1 855 •.50 .i3 1&28.I 7'U..!»".1f•Ilch>' ult.SEL I s..15 .00 o.I 5..15 .00 o.I 5..15 .00 .o.,I I TOTAL I 1452.4109.I Ib37.539.5.I 1573.5375. I I I ADDITJONS,I I I "TuRU ,.·-·I ··--, STEA,"'ELEC I 20u..75 .o?O 350.,· · · -I lOO..75 .20 350. co...~.TUR"II,E I -·--I ··--, VI DIESEL I .- - -I ·· · -I 0 I I ICO~ETJIlE._NTS ,I I "TuRO I -·--I ··-.I SJEAMfLEC 1 15..lJO ."'"u.I ·· · .I COMB.TUH~It.E i ---·,bll.~OO .00 o.I -UlfSEL I -·-·I ----I 1 I , ---------------/I I GROS~HESOURCE&I llo31.5060.I 1573.5393.I 1773.5U•• I I , LAP MES.MAQGIUI 0.4&2 I 0.310 I 0.403 I 1 I io'E&f:RVE HEW.I 280.I 298.I 31.&. I I I LOSSES I 5b.75.I 60.80.I 63.'5. I I I 'f T RESOUtfCE~:1301.49&:::'.I tillt.5313.I U .....5641. I I I THANSFfREo I II.I o.I O. I I I I I I SuHPLUS I 181.O.I 24.O.I 130.O. PEAK --PeAk LOa~~GE~~~ATING CAPAC ITT HEQUIHEME~TS(MEGA~ATTS) ~'''"F --",a III MUM Il'iLhT UTILIZAJIO'"FACTOR ::~~G;-_:L ~~~~R=~~~,~/~~~~~~A ~~~~G~AG~~~~JRE"'ENrS (MILLIONS OF KILO"'"TT-HOU~S),~. A"'~A:FAIl<ttA""S ~'I~RA~~S C.5~:2 --~EDlu~LOA~GRowl~ l.iC:HII~',b.N:1<>4~., ~OTE~:~uv.)6,1~?e,./u.S.-1~94. CRITICAL P E H 100 --------------------_._-----------.----.~--~-----------._--,~--,~------_._._--------.__.--.. I I PEA" 1---------------------1~EwUlkE~E~IS f JO~. ----·~-----....----I 175. 22. o. ,- 1437. un. u. 1105. 17l1.o. 1459. 1437. ENERGY--.-. .75 .20 .50 .50 .75 .59 •Soil .10 .Iil .00 U89-199u ...DuF APoF 1&. 82. ~3. o. 328. IOU. It. 2110. 20Q. O. 419. 519. 421. 0.582 I 137&.I I I I O.I 1194.I 1711.I O.I I 1372.I I I I 25.I I I I I I O.I - I O.I I. I 1397.I I I I I I 21.I I 137&.I I I I I O.I I E~E!OIGf I PE ..K--------1------ .75 .20 .00 .00 .lIO .00 .50 .50 .75 .&8 .50 .10 .10 .00 l"bb-lC/1l9 MPLIF "PlIF O. 9. 14. 22. II. 79. 1&. u. 2111. C!04. 22. I I PEh 1------I I 314. I I / I I I I I I 43&. I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 419. I I 0.334 I ' I I I I I 325. I I I I O.I lO. U15. O. 1139. 19t>..u~ 1335. 1335. 131 ~. E;.£~Gf-------- .50,.5ii .15 .,."t? •Soli .11 .10 _"U 1907-1"'1111 Hl"uF "P,Jf' o. ,. IS. 75. 4&. u •• 21\1. 2001. 22. 43t>. 43&. 14~. 0.452 / I I I I TOUL A001110...5 "fORO STE.A,VELEC ,COI'o8.TUHIHI.E OI~SEL RETlkE~'HS HfuWl/ S Ti:.A "'l/fLE.C CO:·i~•TUQt:l 1I.f UIESEL "ESDu~C£S f E.OST I,~G I HfUWO I ~n;A ~/ELEC I C(l~,!!.1'J'I,tll·.£.I UJtSEL WEj>ErtVE IIE(,;. -,iE!~E S,(lu"CE~ SURPLOS lIUNSFEREO LossES I I I I I I I I I I I I "I I I I ---------------,"Rl/SS ~ESOuRCESI I C"~W,Es.,"4"~GI1Ij1 I I I I I VIo 0() PE"K --Pt,"1\,L:OAD'GElfEIU TII'II.CioPAell y.~EwUIRE"ENTS(MEGA~ATTS) l'lf'lIf --MAX1MII ...f>L ....HUTILJl ..TJON F~CTOR .."lIF --"CTU.LI"L"r4T uTILIZAl1();fl FAClOWEI.E~G'f --'GI:Ni.Jl,Alio,./ANllUAL EI'oEkGY kEtiUlkEMENTS(MILLIONS IlF KILOWATT-t<OuR5) •..Eu'''C''''••bt A••CH(Il....E CASt.;i!--I'lEulu"l LU.II GWOllll.", j~Tt~llt.ytAR:l~~l. "'",Tc;S;r.uv.lO,l<;Ol8.'II.S.-199•• Cr.ITICAL P to:Ii 100 ---~-----------------------.__._---_._._-~-------------------_._~_._--.._----------_._---, ,PE'AI\',------"~···_;';'··------I ijRUS~kESOI1HCtSI 1113., CAP kES.MAHGI~'O.lOl, kESE~VE kE~.1 339., ,LOSSES ,bOo I ~ET ~ESOURCE~"'3&&., lRANSFEREO I ~.,, SURPLUS I 9. ,1357. lOUL lOll. -,-. o. o. 350. b6.0. 510. 5159. 991. ,O• 6907. 1011. ,.9117. .50 .7,0 .lb .00 .20 .00 .75 .50 .75 .50 .15 .00 O. 50 • 71. 13,-. 8115 • 77.5 • 3• 14. , ,15113. I,,,, I, I I,1755., I I ,lOO. I,,,, O.I O.I O.I, I I 1906., 1 0.235 I ,309., 9'1.1 I ,15l0.,,, I O.I -l3. fo485. Sill • 419.5. ll0S. o. b58l. fo50 •• &1185. .50, .b8 .111 •00 .20 .00 .00 .00 .75 .50 .15 .50 .15 .00 •00 .00 1~91-199~,1~9l-19~3 ~~UF APUF EhENG',PE.K ~P~F APuF ENERGY----._.-.---._..I----~·_.-......---.•..- (I. 113. 41. lb. ~. 73. 51. 13". 0113. 791. 5. 190. 11150. 1173. 1393. I 6063.1,,, 511i.I 4517.1 IlIlt7.1 ,II.I I 00154.I I I I I I I I I I, ,I 1 I I ft1511.,1755. I "O.l11, I, 91.I, I 6063.,, I I, O., ';;~ll _fii! _1's_0' •~u •75 •':>0 •15 19~n-I~~1 I ~~UF A~~F E~fRGY 1 PeAK--.-.-----_.~--~/.._--- - 134. /1113. 191. 5. 1773. AuOUIO"S "YUNO , Sh.A""fLEC , tI1MB.TURa UoE , lIIt.SEL ,,,,,, I I RHIREMi ITS HYuRO Slt.A"'/ELEC COlollI.TuRliU.E 1I1tSEL "EI~ltl"~Mt~ll... ..ESOi,lHCES , eXlsrhli , "YURO , lHtA,'!,I£LEC , 1.(I •.lil.T,uRi:>I i.f , OltSEL ,,, I• ---------------/ ---_._---------, UI-o I'!::AK --PtA"L04al"..fovERATlNl>CAPACITY REloIUIHE"Et.lTSbIEGAdfTS) ~iPuF --MAX1MuM ~4"T UJlLUAUOlvFACIUR A?l.JF --ACh,AL "\LoA'"IIIILIlATlO:"FACTOIl EI~EkG'--GtNt.RA.1I1oliC'.I,'WAL Ehe.IlE;Y HEQUIRE14Et.lTS (HILl-JONS OF KILI.lWA Tl-ItOURS)r ",JiJiiI A,;Ea:FAIiceAlllt(S f Ah''''NI\:;CASt.:2 --"'~Ulu.'"LOAD 6RO"TH .J"T","l Ie.:.lEAK:IQ~l. ~OTES~Nu~.30.1~11 .,u.S.-I"4. CRtTICAL P ~If 100 -_._----------.-------------------_.~.-.-_.~-------_.-_._-------.---_.--_._-------..._---, I PEA",-.----.I'!fl)-I'*"I I ~11'''F.lo,p ..F EI.EI<GI.,PEAl(----.~-------_.-'/---_.. 1'91-1992 I ,..P,iF ."UF E"'EitG'I PEAk--------,------ 199i-1993 ~IPl!F APuF ENEIc&Y IlEwulRI:.'1C:;,TS·I ---------------/ ---------------, ,---------------1 O. '!' 25. o. 110'11. o. 15i2 • 143. o. 1666. 1"6"•. 1"41. .50 .55 .10 .00 .00.110 ·.50 .75 .50 .10 o. 12. .. 19. 40. 374. O. 31e. lOll. O. 519. 38b. 479. O.l'lli 75. I 157l.I, I I O.I 141a.I 17&., O.I I 1597.I I I I I . I I I I I ...I I I l I. 1597.I l I I I I Z4 .., I 1573.I I I I I O.I - .50 .51 .10 .00 .50 .15 .511 ~IO ll. 18. .. 14. 0'. 3tb. 2(\...· 1>. 35tl. 519. 430. -51. '519. 0.450 I 1,05., I I I O.I t<!9l.I 1711.I O., I 1412.I I I I 5e.I I I I I I O.I I I I I 1526.I I I '1 I I 23.I I I !!05.-/ I I. I I II.I .'50 .53 .10 •.lit .i!C1' .00 ":' •75 .,0 •75 .50 .10 .003l. 3i. o. 17. 8b. 73. 343. 51". o. 31to. :20". (I. 1/16 •. 519. 0.513 I I I I ISURPLUS TOTAL AODUIONS HYORO STEAM1ELt..C CO.,d.TURIU"'E iHfSEL Rt.TIREMU S "'fURU STt.AM1E.LEC CUi-Hi.T Ukt\hE 01t.sEL otESOlPkCES I eUloT1"lG I "Y"RO.I· lo'llAoVElEC I. CO.-,ll.TOllu INE I IlIl:St.L I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I "HANlIFEHEO GRuSS ~E50UHCESI I CAP xES.NAWGl~1 . .I HESE~~E REG.I,I LOSSES I .•I :.!:~.~tS·:)URCES .! VI-- PEAK -- ~ptJF ...- AptJF -- [NEill'Y PEA~LOAU'6ENER.TI~~C.PACITY HEQUIHE~ENTS(MEGA~ATTS) I-lilUMUM Pl:A;'"llULUATltiN'FAtTUH .CTUALPL ....r 'UTILIZATll)j-j FACTOR Gf.NtIfAT Hh/·A"I~U.L Ei\EifGY'kEtJuIflEMI:NTS (MILLlO"S OF KILO ..A"-HO,,~S) ,/ A..fA:'1IoCr1l',dbf ...C·W",Abf CASt::2 --....EOIII"LUAli GRO"T" 1;"Tt-IotTIe.f£Ak:1",..2. ~uTlS:~~V.~O,l"a .~I u.s.-199~. eR 1 TIC A L foE Ii 1 U D----------------_._._-----------------------_._--------------------.-....--_.-.__...---.- o. 369 • 125. o• S·311. SU1I7. 2949. 4&41. 471. fl. a436. 8311. ENENGy •!»6 .55 .37 .10 .00 .uo.i/O .55 .1") .50 .15 .5& 1~'IS-I'I9b MP ..F Ai>uF o. 8b • 93. 70b. 144!». &b". 3. 1 1 PEAl( 1------1 1 1&54.1 . I 1 1 1 I 1 1 I lS2i. 1 I I 1 I I I I 1 1 I·125. 1 1 I I 2184. I I 0.5(/2 I I 311. I I I I 2321. 1 I 1 1 O.I 467. 11b. Slu. 43.53. 58b. 0. 1151. S4i9. 2438. 70&7. 7751. Ef>OEIlGy .5U .34 .10 .00 •5& .. .5& .~o .75 .50 .IS 19«;Q-199S ",Pl1F APIJF o. 13". U"S. &69. 3. 1 I PEAl( 1------1 1 172'9. 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2251. 1 ~~I ....__. 1 1 1 1 1 1 U.1 1 1 1 1 l822. 1 1 0.632 1 1 346. 1 1 '8&.; 1 23'90.· i 701. I Ill. 732... 510. 5b4c!. S8b • II. &130. 7439. 712~. E~.E..6Y .110 .511 .l>2 .10 •tJC) .20.15 .!»O •i5 •~o .1 S .uo lQ"3-1,*9.. "'''uF p.;·I!F 55. -7. 4UU. 19.... 134. lUll;'. 7a'4. 3. Ib3b. 190b. li51. 11..376 327" Ill. 1842. 1 1 "t.'"1------ I I I 1 ,. 1 1--- U.I ,b611 '- "t.A~--PEAl(LOAD/GENERATIN~CAPACITY REQUIHEME,.TS(MEGA~ATTS) "~UF "'-~.X!MUM PLA~T UTILJZATIuN FACTOR API/f.'--AI:.TuAI.PL~:~I UT1LIZArIOi.fACTOR EI,EilG'\'--G~NlRA nUN/A'~I.UAL ErJERGY ..EUUI REMIONI S (MILL IONS OF KILO"'A TT-ttOIlRS) SURPLUS IUTAL AODlTIOIOlS IiYlJtW sr~AM/ELt.C ClHli.lui/tsIUE UI*,SEL RE T1liE:~ENT;;: ttYlJHO :'Tt.Aot/E.Ll:.C C.lMB."Jilt!J I,E u H.SE.L ~-------~------I IHAt;SFE~EIl Ilf:>EHVlF,HEli. LOSSES "~'.Ul~e:'"_i.rs 1 ---------------1"*,:>OukCES •1 E~hTJ"'G 1 H'V"\l 1 :>T~A'-'/ELlC 1 cor·,ti.Tv~Rli.*,1 lJl~SEL .1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1.._---------_.., GIlOSS KESOURtESI 1 CAl'..ES.'URc.INI 1 1 1 1 1 100.kl:'SOuRCfS 1 UI-.., '~1fI..,..""ftM'f'T'rttt!rtcrW:"'f ,.;~Mdik#i&,i¥~i$R*t/~b!,tW.%i\iWjbR~~~b%~~:til*tt8¥iiMf*§:y4ij=V+'iif6NmtJ."" 'oIE A.:F AI MS.'11\$. fA h~"'<"S CAst.:i -'."£IIIUM LuAD GAU.H.I..r':~·llt..'b.,,:1"';'2... ~.OTES:r<u\l.::S(I.1'111'$'.'U.&.·19.4. C A'I TIC ALP ~"I 0 0------------------------------_...._-----_._---.-------.;.._----------._.-------------.------,1""3·1"'....,19...·I".S ,H9S·199& ,P~A ..~·l'uF AP •...1f E,.E"&V ,PEAK ,.PuF APliF EIiE~GV ,PEAII ",PuF APuF EI4EltGY,,--,.-------..---------./------.-------._------I-~~-~-...-------------......~.,......,.,1 tciIlUl"~!oil::~TS 1 38".170".J 1105.1717.I ..i3.1859 • --~----------·~l 'I I l<eS(JuIlCES I I I E xl:.J J '.10 ,I I IiTl."O 1 u..50 •Sill u •.,o..50 .SO '0.I 131..5"•5&'5S •• ilT~A:~/ELEC ,·310..75 .~1591.1 31t>.•7'II .110 1101 •.1 31&.•7S .4i ·IU59 • CO;:,Il.Tuwrl 11,1:1 1*'''..so .,1,0 1 4 3.I "to"..SO .10 1113.,Ib"..511 •10 143 • IiIfSEL I II..10 •Q~O o.1 O.•10 .00 o.,O•.10 .1i0 u • I I I TOUL I 47,".17'35.I 1179.lillS.,&10.17bl. I .,I AuOITIONS I ,I Ii TVR.v .I ··-·I 131..5&.5&559.,1'1.•.5&.5&8Z. STt:A"'ELEC I ··-·,· · ··I.is..75 .iO Il,J. cnM~.TUR8Ir~E I ··-·i · · ..·I '. VI Ol ..SEL ,· · -·I ··..·I...I I ICo)REnl(fME;S ,I , HVUI(O ....I · · -·I ·...•·, :;Tt,AM/IOLEC 1 · · -·I · · · ·I 25..00 .1 .QO o. L():-l~.T\.lfltlINE I · · -·I · ···I lllt.SEL .'I · · -·I ··-·I I ,,.......:.........,,, &ROS:;RESOuRCESi 1179.1735.,&10.18011.I &29.1887. I I ,. CAP kES.·"AR~IWI 0.~31 I 0.'511&I 0.1188 I I , HEilEKVE.kEU.I 71'>.I 81.I 85. I I I LOSSES I.19.Z&.I ZO.i!7.I 21.28. '.:n "f.SOU~CES I I I 1 3112.170Q.1 509.1777~I Si!II.1859. 1 I I TRANSFEREO I 7''0 I.O..,O.,I I I I I SURPLUS ,O.O.I lQII.O.I 101.O. PEU ••PEAII LOAOA"SEI'vt:Rj\T1~G ·CAPACITV REQUIRE~'EI<lS(NEGA,ojAITS) MPUF··Mj\~l"IJMPIo.;A.~l UTILIZATIill~FACTOR APlIF ••ACTUALtiL!l"..T uJILlZAfiOIlo FACTOR E"E~G~~-GtNt.RATI~~/A~~~AL ~NEkGV ~EQUIREMENTS(MILLIDNS OF KILO~j\rr·HO~RS) hE.:A.-.c:"'hil.E ''''C''''-ofA..E r aSt.:i!.•~MElli"",LOAO GIlO ..," 1••fEICII':'HAk:'1 ...,2. r.uh::S:r.ov.30.1"1.8 f&./u.$.-1994. elf J T J CA I.P Ere 1'0 0 -----._-------_.-----------------------.----------------~----.--.-..-_..---.._,-.-.._..-.. ··--'!i'-~·-~-----I o. o. -. 3317. 4115. lla. O. ZUI. 9991. 1710. .50. 9991. 10141. E"E~li' <) .5&.56 .110 .00 1998-1999 ~PuF APUF .SS .55 .15 .~5 ".50 .10 .15 .00 lIS. 570 • -14. 44t1. 125. 19i. 11S45. 33!». o. li!28. 197i!. 3Si". 0.5112 1 Jl. 29&1~ I 9451.I I I I U17.I 5'::1>1.I 294.I O.I I a872.I I I I 101.I I I I I I I I I I I ",S72.I I I I I I 141.I I 91131.I I I, I O.I I ["EItG'I Pr:AlC--------/------ .55 .55 .75 •ttl .50 .10 .15 .00 . .75 .iO 19li7-199b ~'PUF AFUF 792. l/fll~. 335. C/. ·13l. I. I "EA".1----·-I doH •.1 lJf)3. i I I I I I I I I 2512. I I I I 40U. I I I I I I O.I U.I I I I 297l. I I 0.1113 I I 4l1. I I lOS. I I 2447. I I -110. I I o.I .l~3. H17. 5H~. c!9/f • o. 91i04. a871. 9UU4. E·.E",G.' .~5 .:::.S .75 ...3 •:;)0 .10 .15 •..ou .1i0 ."0."0 .uO 19.,&.I 'f97 -IPl,F "PLlF o. 99. lll1. 2. 79i!. 1044:;. ~45. 3·. 27&4. I I "I I ISURPLUS TOUL AUOiTIOf'/S "'IiIlO' 1»1t.A"/El.EC Cll~il.l.TlI~tll i.E ulESEI. RETIPEr~l:T$ "'UifO 1I Tt.A~I/l:l.t:C Clmh.TIJRrllNE IJIt.SEL toiEwllA'<C:··tE"U "ElIllu"CE&I Elll:.Tli,,(;I ,tYlJiW i :.hA',/EL.l:C I CO",''.TU""Ir.E I uas.::..I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I """"I····.. --_.<IIt., TRANlIFEAI1.0 11919. ·~------·----·-I . bROS~"ESOU~CE$I 251l. I CAP kl:S."lARGI.U O.3u·0 I 'kElI£RVe:REY.I ]9&. I LOSS~S I q'i..I ~;~~kESQU~CES /;:016. UI-oIlo PtA"••PtA"1.0Al>''".~Nelf''Ur-.~CAPACITY NEUIJIRE"'hTSCMEliAdTU) .....IlF .••"'''XlMuM PLANl lJTfl.lZAUO/.FAC10N APUF·..AC1UAI.PL....ToT.ILllATlOi.FACTOR E,~F.HG ••-HNt'tA fJu.U"....~UAI.ENERG'ItEI<UIHEIoIEHl S (MILLIONS UF KILOWA n.HOtJlfS) \c""c,;'.o'~"'__;L.Jiilllli-.hi iiIIllULIl!JJJdiJ.,..-A ,tiKUUa_ A1fu F.I.liAI~..S ~&I~~~~~S C.SL~l --~E~IU"Luao GROWT" I .•T"'"Ii:'EA~;I ....?. '·olt.S;'"uv.1(1,1"'''1 .,u.$.-1"9_. CRITIcaL P E fi 100 --------._--.----------------_._---_._._._-----~----------_.-----------._-------._.---_.- .-.--...-----'---1 ---.-------:----, --..--_.--------/~E~~I~~;·~~TS.I'~42. I I "Ea ... 1------ o. 3i. ft4i. 981.o.o. su. il105 • lbi4. 2117. .iI05. EttER'Y . - .511 .56 .!l6 .56 .75 .~6 .50 •.10 .10 .00· 19 ..11-1'199 ~PuF APuF - II. 14. 9b. l4. 150. 31b. fl. O. b42. Itt 1i!. fl. 0.. , E"EwGY I "fAIl------_.1------ I 20il3.1 "au. I 1, I I 1 / 1 il053.'.fall. /, 'I 120.,, I 1 / /, O./ 1 1 .1 2053./~a6./. ,O.iil I 1 I 30 .../, il023.'46'11., 1 I, o.1 '!' .Sb .56 .75 .51 .50 .10 .10 ..00 .~O "!O; 1997 -1'19& "'''uF APUF 'Ii. il3. '0. bOb. 150. lib. 140. II. 1.40. ,.61 •. 466. 351. 110. 0.011 I 1941.1 I., 1 b4t •.1 liOb.1 12S.1 II.1 1 U70.1 1,, 1 1 ,.f 1, 1 1 O./ 1,, 1970.,,, 1 1 1 il9.1 / 1941 •.I,,, i o.1 I E~E"GY I "t.all --------,--.~-- .i/O •.-0 .5&.~ .75 .<1. .~o •HI .111 .00 19'1&-1""7 ..PuF APt!f' O. 5j• .., 1 1 .1SURPLUS ThAl~SFEREO ItEiHiU"Cf5 I E!lI&TI....I fjYlIlW I ISu. ~Tta~/flEC I 11~. CO~o.TUkoINE I 1~4~ uJ~SEl I U. I Tural I b~9...1 auo.TIONS..I "'.IIRO 1 &TEa~/ELEC 1 _ CO,"B.TURI:lJt.lE I uIESEl 1 1 METlR£ME~T;;I H'uRO .1 6TE'a:VE&:EC 1 CO~d~T~~~I~E 1 24. ~It.$E~.1 . '.1 ~RUS5 WESOURCE~I b~b. I ClP HES.I4ANGI/U 0.371 1 ICEtiEt(VE REi)..1 .86. 1 LO$St.S·1 ill..1 HETliESQURCEli 1 495.,.1 III-III PEAK --PEAK LoaO/GENERATING Cl~aCIT'RE~UIREMENT$(MEGlMa'TS) '·:PUf --",AXIHu14 p~~,~rurH.llA'JON FaCl,)rc At'UF --ICT.ulL PLa'l/l UTlLIZA.T..IOIl fACTON ENE~G''';;'.."tl~t:RA T111'''/At~NUAL ENfl«(,Y I<ELlUIf<EMENTS (MILLIONS OF KILluI4 n-HOuRS) ----------~-- aRE&:a ...C"llIU.E &·'C""",..E e"St:'!?--"t€OI","LoaD GltollT" l..ltrtlh.YEAW':''''''2. 1.·JTt:s:r·/llV •.)1).•,1 ~1/1 'til "'.lli.-1994. C R I TIC a L P f N 100 ----------------------------------------------------------------------_._----.-.-------..I I PEAII 1------ GRuS:'KESuuwCESI 3526. I CAP RE:..MA~GINi 0.499 / RESEKVE NE~.I 471. I LOSSES I 11/1. I :ET KESOURcEe 1'2939. j TRANSFEREU I -~O. I I SuRPLUS /566. TOTAL ----_...__.------; 168. o. O• 6110 • ~129 • 103. O. 11343. 11341. 11175. 11175. EHENG' .00 .00 .55 .55 .75 .32 .50 .10 .15 .00 lOul-2u02 "'P"F APuF 16. 1447. Ib45. 136. u. / I PtA ... 1------I /2,,911. / I I I / I I I I 342&. I I I I I I I / I I O.I I I I /3410. I I 0.369 I I 498. I I lZ5. I I 21e7. I I -44. I I O.I Z53. 163. &IlO. 4797. 11'*• O. lO~63. 11026. llu26. 10eb3. E",E"l;Y •00 .00 .55 .55 .75 .30 .50 .1.0 .15 .00 20';11-2(101 ",PoF API,F 11447. Id45. 231>.o. I /Pt.AII 1------I I 21421. I I I I I I I I I 352lt. I I I I I I I I I / II.I 100. I I I I 34Z11. I I iI.416 I I 484. I I 121. I I 2822. I I ~31. I I U.I 370. 362 • 158. 57<1 .... <I.H3. i!Otl. u. 10~51. 103411. lU7U9. 1(1551. E""EKl;Y •55 .55 •75 .~7 •50 .111 .15 .00 •56 .56 .00 .00 19~q-2vIIII "IPlJF ~"lJF 65. 82. 2353. 35211. 13&2. 'o4~. 311. O. AuOiTIONS HYLlPU STEAM/ELEC CU ·,a.1 UKb II~E OIi:SEL RE11wE"tITS HYlJffij STtA'·"tLt:C CO,~".TuRtlitlE LlIESEL ---------------, KE ••ulkE·'c';TS I ----~--~-------IwE:>OllkCES I EXhTIt.;G I HYl.IkJ I l;TEA ·'/tLEI:I C(1~".lUREI!"E I ulESEL I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I U'I-0- ~EAK --PE&K LO"U/~~"'ERATl~G C&"'ACll'WEQulkEHENTS(~E&A~AJTS) ,""PUr"--,rlAxlHu""PLA:H IJTlLIlAllu,1 FACTOR APUf --ACTUAL PLANT uT1LIZATIO~FACTOR ENEkGY --~tNtHATlnN/A~NOAL E~E~GY kEQIJIHEHEN1S(MILLION~OF KILO~AT1-HOURS) ':"~ &"fA:FAI"'l!&''''''S F ..,..AA;'.S CloSt:Z--~EOIU"LO.lJ"Il(l"rH l;lER,n:.HAil:1~"'"2.,," ~~riS:~lJv~30,I~~~~I ~~$.-t994. O. ,. 34. lilO. l304.' ll2'• 1075 • p• ,0. i!304. i!i!10. ENERGY.._..-.- - •56 .56 •15 .J9 •50 .10 .10 .00 iOOl-lilGi MPuF APuF o. 411. 26. ,288. 31&. O. O. I I PEAII1------ I I 5 iii • I I I I I I I I I &04. I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 604. I I 0~165I' I 104. I I I I 414. I I I Io.I :" 33. i2i!9. 2i!62. li!i9 • 103'1. o• o• ii&i!. 2i!l9. ,EP;E~GY P E.il 1 0 D •56 .56 .75 .37 •50 .10 •10 .00 20011-2001 ~IPUF At>l!F O. 31. is. 477. 10i. &011. ~08. i!1l8. 31&.o. O. &04. 0.188 PEAK (.Q 1 TIC A L I 21iH.I I I I 11,4,.I 'HI.I u.Io.I I 2145.I I I 75.I I I I I I I I I I I I i2iO.I I I I I I 33.,1. I ~la7."I I I I I II.I ElliE ..,• .)b •~tb .75 .,3,"'0 •~t:•~:tO .lo.lIj.J) .~&.SiD l'h9-2;;'.VU .,PuF "P·.W o. u. II. 20. l5. Ill. _._---------------------------_._-------------------~---------------_._.-----------_._... SURPLUS TOTAL RHIREMEI'ITS tiY[lIfU STE.AiVELEC ClIM!.'Tu~d I,.E Olt.SEL AuolTlUNS tiYlltjlj ~rI:.A""EL"C COI~a.TUR~Ii'.t: uH.SEL TlUN:.FEREO LOSSES ICESEkVE tiEw. I I PEAl<1------ ---------------1wE~UJREMEH'S I 499.---------'------1wESu~~CfS I ,EIlI:.rl'~r;I ~YO~~I 270. S'fA~/ELEC I 31b. CO~,.o:l.TU~1l HIE.I ulc.SfL I I I 5"&. I I I I I I I I I I I I I ---------------1bROS:'RESOUR~ESI &04. I CAP.wES.~AQGI~I 0.209 I I IOU. I ,I I Ne!~~SOl!RCES I 479. I I I I I UI-...... PEAl<__Pr:AI\LOAUI.(iiiNERATI""",PACITY kEQIJIHEHENTS(MEGANATTS) hlPuF __'"UlIo1UM PWAI~'I.IIILIlAlIO~J FACTOR APuF --lLTuAL PL~.'uTILlt4TIUN-FACTORE;~EI'lGY--:Gb~t.RA T j:({!rUAJl/r~UAL Er.E~GY kE ..UIKEME,...TS (MILLIONS OF KILO"A n-HOuRS).-" 'ofEu ...C"Oicl..E "·.';"0""..1:C_~..::,~--"Evl"",lUll"6/(0_T" 1·,ft:;fJlt U,IlIH l·"''''? ',uTt~:I'liv.jO,J'~le ftl 1I.S.-1990. _HIT I elL P E 11 100---------------.---------..._-----------------------------------------_._.__._._-_.-.----- I I PEb 1------ ~ROS~RESlIJHCESI 331u.. I CIP kES.MAHGlNI 0.294 I HE~EKVE HEw.I 51Z. I LOSS~S I 128. I tiET ;;~"()l)QCfS I ·?"70.. I TRANSFERI:.O I -80. I I S"'RI'LUS I.32. o. o. blU. 6'1'83. u.o. U293. 12111.• 12293. 182. 12111. EfoIU6Y .00 .110 .55 .55 .15 .38 •~O .10 .15 .00 i!Oil4l-Z0Cl5 f>',i'.JF APuF o. Ill. 1&. 1..47. 11l45~ l~. o. I I PEIII 1------1 1 2b94. 1 1 I 1 I I 1 I 1 3.510. 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 I I 1 1 1 3292. 1 I 0.?22, 1 539. 1 1 135.,. 1 Z!lI/i. 1 I 1 1 0 •.1 177 • bUiI. 5/j~1I. 15. II. 1'1799. 1197&. 1197&. 1'1799. 'E"E~GY - .55 .55 .75 .56 .511 .1.0 .15 .00 20('3-211011 kPuF "PuF o. 27. 525~ 131. 1447. ld4S. 18. o. 3310. 3310. 0.2bO 2&53. b1lU. 5530. 15. O.I I I I I I I I 1 I 1 1 I O.I I I 1 1 I 1 I I 1, 1 I 1 1 I 1 O.1 .172. 11 ..1.17 •.I 2bZb. I I I I I ! llb59. l!4!7. 11&59. E,.E*G,•PEAII....._- .55 ••,5 .1'i ••J4 •~o •.!(l .15 ••110 .1/0 ._uO iOu.?-<2QI/5 :.P"F A;g'JF 10il. 1!t4l7. 16"5. 110. \/. Z,511. 3410.TOTAL ~ET1NtME~rs HYIHhl SH.."l/ELEC CO:~i1.TtIWtS I1.E liIESEL -----------~--.,.WEl.iUI"t:'''~',TS I ---------------1icESOul<lCES I HllllIl'lb I tf'u~()I STt.A·"/tLI:.C I C"'''R.TURdINF.I OIt.SEL I I I I "OOlTIOI,S I "YuNO I STEA'~/ELEC I co,-.i>.TlIRl:l INE I uIESEL •.1 I I I I I I I -·-·~----------I '"-CD PEAl(--PI:AI\LOAih/Gfl~ERIlTIN&>CIPACny REQUIREMElIiT;I(MEGAIIlATT:n ~~PlIF --t4AX 110\1''''~tLA"~T UTILI l'"lON f ACTUR APUF --ACTUAL PL~~r UTILfZATldN FACTO~ ~~EWGY --Gt~~~llr~I04/AHNUA~ENE~GY ~EQUINEMEN1S(MILLIO~S OF ~ILO_ATT-hOJRS),.-- ';~;O;"0:i'{:i,":~::A':II &..tAo:FAI ..8A,.II.S FAI;;oAi."S C~St.:i:-..HEvI"'"'LvAu GW(HtTH I.felon ..,EAh:l'~'·o).?' hOTES:~uV.lO,tW7&.,U.S.-t994. CRITICAL -----_..-------, GRUSS wEsOU~CES/579. ,/, CAP MES.MAl/bIN/11.098 / ~ESEkVE WE~./105. "/ LOSStS /2&. / '~El ..ESOURCES /447. 3&. o. 175. 2395 • 1229. 1027. O. U. 225&.. 2431. 2395. ENERGY .5...5& .75 .30 •SO .1 (/ .10 .00 ,.75 .20 c01l4-2u05 ~~"JF APUF 27. 20. 288. 391. o. U. / /PEU/-.----- / /5~. / I / I I / / / I ..7C1. I I / I 100. I / / I / I / / I / I 779. I I 0.42& I /109. I I / I &42. I /-7&. I I O./ 35. 175. 2353. 1229. 984. o. II. 2o!13. 2388. 2353. E"EIlGY p ~Ii 1 "0 .5&.5& .75 .39 .5C1 .10 .I\).0<1 .75 .20 20ul-lo04 H~UF &PUF o. 27. 7. 537. 100. 579. 107.• 544. "'286. 291. O. o. "79. 0.2&4 / / / O./ / l312./ I I I li!29.I 1110.I o./ u./ / 2347./, / / I I I I / / / O./ / I / / 2347./ I / / /, / .35./ I ,2l1i!.I , E••£ItG'/Pfllll._-_._--I-.-~-- .110 •(1),8 .5&.':!:rfI .75 ....4 .50 .11 0 .10 .,.r,o "Oul-c'vlIl ;o\PUF &?'"F o. 25. 80. i!llll. lIb. o. II. / / / /SURPLUS TOIAL AuDlTIOII,S ,n'l)r.-o' S TEA,~/ELEC C(M~.TUHbINE OI"SEL , ,"fA"/-------------_.._----, I\EI"'l~E"~'ITS ,5~7.._-------;._.._;.;~, HE:>UvlolCfS , EAI,;T!Nb / rtYulle., :Ht.lI"1/ELt.l:/ CO-,b.TU~DII'E / uleSi:L / / /toO". / / / / / / / RETJRH1EI~TS / HYUIW / STI:CAM/ELEC / CO;',~.TUlttlll.1:J IJIi:SEL I I JRANSFEREO UI--0 PeA~-~P~AI\L.OAO.A'GEillfiUTlNG CA~ACITY wEQulkE"U.TS(MEGAt,A1TS) ~PUF --MAXIMU~PLlI~T JIILILArlON FACTOH IIt>IJF --A'i:TIIAL.PL;I\,H uULIZAT101~FACTO~ E~E~GY --GtNtRA'aU~/ANNUAL E~EHGYHE~UIR~~ENTS(~ILLIONSOF KILOwATT-HO~RS) ""EA:...·.C ..O"AbE ••r-1n~"bF.CAS ..:."--liIEl1I,J'"l.vAil IOROlllrH I".T""II.o rEA'I:I"',,,Z, '."T·fS:i....V.30,1"";8 ~,u.S·~-19'l". ,.!'IITICAl.P E ..lOll -------------------------------~--------------------------~-----~-------------_._----_..., ,PEA .... 1------ IOUL LOS5t.5 SuRPl.US 19&. O. &1111. 7133 • O. 0.' t 3047. t3243~ 13243. 13047. Er~ENGY .55 .55 .15 .3& •jO .10 .15 .00 .:OU1-2u08 MPJF APUF , EI\ERGY ,PEAl(--------,------, 12135.,2899.,,, b110.,14011. 0810.,2~45. U.I u• 0.'O., lZ92&.,309i!., I,...,, I I, I,,,, I 129i!b.I 3&92., I 0.273, ,58\1. I I'll.I 14.5. I 12735.I 29&7., I O. I I 0..I &8. .55 .55 •75 .35 .5i1 .10 .15 .00 iO(/0-Z007 ~'i"UF APl/F 0. 1 4 2.•. 5106. 153. 1""7. i245. o. 0. 3&92. 1'£"" 3&9Z. 2'184. 0.304 lZ ..23.,ic31.,,, bllv., 57'N., II., u.I, 11~09., I I I 101.I I I I, I, I,, I 12009.I,, I I I 1110 •., I IZ423.,, I,, o., E:~E~G' .- .5'3 .:n .7'5 .30 •:iU ...1 0 .15 •·110 .1'5 .ci!0 cOIl5-2VUl> ,,:PlJF A""~IF . 553. 110\1. 13110 o. Z38. 21&3 • 1'~·17. Ill"~. II. tI. 3Z92. 3&92. O.33~ 3U01. AUDI T!O,.S HYuRO STEA'<IELEC CO."...TUH!:!I NE uIc.SEl. RETIREI~ENTS HYllRO :H""'~'ELEC CO"'D.TlJ'Io It.E uIi:.5El. TRAN:iFEREO ItES.EI<VE ..H. -·~------------I"EIJl!l'lf·'f....TS I ---------------,..E~Ul.lIlCE:i I Elll:.TI'I'i I "filii!), :.TtA'·./ELEC , cn'·d.TUR"II,E , ulES£L ,,,,, I,, I 1 I,, 1,., ---------------,GQOS5 WE~OI,RCE~1, CAP I<E5.MAWGIN', I I I, "'ET HESOURCES , I.,, I, UI..., o .. PEAl(--I't.AII L.OA'iJ.1G';",ERA 11N.b CAF.AC 11'"E(,jUI~E"'HjT&(Io4EGAwA TT$) 'lP\lf --'~AX!f.lu·~,,"',,-A·.1 UTIl.IZATIO ..FACTOR Ai'liF --AC.TuAL ;.>u..;;.''11 ulILIlATlON FAClOK E~E~GY ~-GtNER~TIJO~/A~NUAl.ENENGY ~EgOIHE/04ENTS(Mll.LION5 OF KJl.OWATl-HO",RS) ~<I)0::>o1:•...-..;:<:>..J....'"'z;~~..«U)..Z<.:)0UJ...~..J.....JU).......:LZ_ILlU)L...iiiZ:x,.)...J:~iii:3XUJX...0:00<':)...O~..U~Wt-4U~"""t!4cU...~Cz(,!)Q..":)Z)".........0·....:-t-....!..~l&IUlNC":!'t-tN,.J....-1........t-_-,~C-Io"\II.-a:~.='~~ILl=>..Z__"lLI?-~l'<':'~~=J~.""~...:<IQ.._4O~2'-':1-1....:tcrZ",...:)..lJctx....".....uQ.~ClI•• I •• I •>-.Ul"'l.L.~.;cc.,j:::JuJioIJ:L3.Zl1.XC\&J·IUIII·'"•...·......Q'"%ILlILJ)Z..It:...:nILlU:l<::>o'".:>1\1.0'.'-..«J'"....10'"......1\1...Cl0'"IV'"1\1. ........"~.,".aiiix'·ILl:>....,.ILlJ)ILl'".---".SJ,."...,Q...u·.,.....t1'~"':D..:tCI""..-1\1"'"""oDo·l7''"...·II'-\II1\1·~.....1\1·Cl'"II'1\1..,~I I·• I • •·•0I •1\1·I.,• ,o•:>I •·••••••••••••••••••••-....• • • I•••I••••••••I'••••••I I I I•••I••••••••.l7'III............·....~,n:>o"IUd....""\I.,1\1""11'100",In_·~DO::..:>;~"1;;~·...·....O'D:>OlitI\ICl_1\11\1'"1\1·....£-::>,::)"'<7"'':7·.....l7'l7'QO~1\11\1'"1\1'"II'...-1\1.0"''''''"",....J\..·...·...co_c.-=-.10'"1\1"·oItIf.I·o1\1II'1\1·...,.""-'\l·'0..."'"•'"I...wJ'.1.•I""""""""'"•Ii• •••••".• ••••'CI'"CO...,~..::ttI'• • • •I •,.".....'"0-""Q0C.~~~~~~_~.~•14.1'./1t\I~.............QCLI0I"._~""""",.,""""""""""'~""'"•YoI........Q.••"""""""".,-""""-"""",..............."",,• IU'),:..::I~~'t~;:~:~;~::~~~~I.-It'U).....%Z..J'X~r.'·~I~·~~~~W~~~~~•~II.Ll'7"I-..J.:>.......~--Jyo"~..JlU,'lJ•u....0;:ew..J....0'!:"WIIJO"~•W'XU)'~I~~~~~~~~%C~~~~~~~~I-'?~~:~~~~.~,"'X~~-~~~~~~1~'OM~~I~""0o>~=~~~~O-~'.~t~~%~~~-~X~u~l~~~U~~IWI~~·c~~It:IY.."SJ~'L.I.;11JI:;j-1I....In-;,OIL'"~.1~l-''~iiiCLu.....'I:..."o'k,~.Q~.......""-'I".:>,,,.......,..,iii'.l...'"I •I.ru"0,....;,J';'1)..c......~_../)~;:.....r:(~ctUUJr.~....11'>...•~:.>I&..,....=...."r'%'nc~"",.ul.L1....-...l"~~JCLl."M::t,521 A"E,,:~.tn\l""..E ~,.C,"I"o\..E C"loCo:2 --"'ELilu""LJALI bkO",TIl 1,.H:i?rIt fl,..Ii:1-1-2. :luTI:.:>,:',IIoi:l •.so,1'17:l ,,'u.S.-I.'". C'F<I TIC A L PEl<100--------------------------------------.--------------------------_.-.._-------------..-.'I ~(J'J,;-2 ~~I i!ilO~-2ulC ,cOl0-iNll I l?fl\l\.·I~lJF 1\1'"E.,ENG\,,PbI,k ;'PuF j\PUf ENE"GY ,PEAl<....'JF APUF Er4EH&Y,----------.-----------,------.-.-------------1---------------------- ---------------1 1 , ~~...Ui ..E..,f;.rs I i!'1bil.1'3 .s5~.,303&.UtaH.'I 3104.13983. ---------------1 ,, ,,,Elouu"'CES I I I E XI:>Tl'l'.I ,, t'1YlIl1\)I 1 '111 '.•~5 .-:r=t bl1u.,1<147 •.55 .55 101111.1 1"47..55 •55 b110 • ,,1 EA.·l/ELc.C I 2211;;..15 .5;'1 ..Su.,'2024:;.•15 .3&10&5.1 ab"5 ••75 .3S 8083 • L(,';·,n.TURJIb!::.I .l.•:':II)•1 "ol.,,\I •.50 .10 u.I 0..,0 .10 O. IJII:.SEL 1 Ii..15 .Il"U.,<-..15 .00 II.,U.•15 .ilO O•,,,~., TorAL I 3b92.U~59.,3&92.13175.,4u91.14193. 1 , "'AOf.'IT I 0.,5 ,,, H\'O~~)I ---,-,----'; ~Tt4:~/ELfC ,----,IHiO..75 .20 101., ,CU~'lti.TUI(r.HoiE 1 ---,-,----, UI 1J1t:~EL 1 - - --,- ---1..., I ,,..., I<f.T lkE"'E IdS ,,, HYukO ,----,_:-.-, ~1I:.A'1/tLEC ,- - - - ,-.--, LO;·lb.~U~"lillE ,---,-,- ---, uIf:>EL ,----,----,,,, ---------------,,, bl<IJSS ~ESOUKCESI 3b92.IJ~59.,lIil92.138ft...,4091.14193. 1 ,, CAP HES.~A~~Ihl 0.i!<l4 ,U.31l8 ,0.318 1 ,I kE'sEt<Vf I{EiJ.1 5'111.,b07.I &21.,,, LOS,SrS ,1118..2UO.,152.2U~.I.ISS.210. ",f OlE T riESOu~CES I 29Su.13359.,3333.136H.,Hlb.139«53.,,I rl(AI'~'FEReo ,..Id.I O.,o.,,i,..1 1 SuRPLUS 1 O.U.,297.O.,211.O. ~fA~--P~A~LOAU'G~~ERAT1~b CAPACITY l(EQUIREMENTS(~EGA~ATTS)~PtlF --I~AXrt~u'"PLA\.,T UfILIlAIlUr,F'ACTOR '' A~UF --AllUAL PLA~I ~rILrlAlluN FACTOR ~'.E"Gt ..-Gt.llI:.RA r 1 I,I"·U ArmII It,L Elo4El(GY i<EuulflEMENTS(MILLlONS OF I<ILOI'IATT-toOllRS) AI<f a Fa J o<ilA,."S F •I.~.~."S C'~":~••"EOI'J'"LJAv G~vl'f'" I.TE Ilf.IF.A~:1 c..~c. 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I // rllUL ,7Sq.2~'h./759.i!olll./159.l085.,I , AIIOHIOd I ,/H'U~'O '/· · -·I ·....../5Tt.A HEUC /· ·-..I ··..·ICll.,.I;.TuHlllf.E /· · -·I ·...·IUIIJIl:.SfL /· · -·/......·I1'0,) /I ICo) RETIHEMfr..TS /// t1'furN ,..·-·I ........I:oTl:.AM/ELf.C /..·-·I ··..·I CO~lH.TlJi<t4J/,E /·..--I ..·-../uJl'SfL /· · --"..-.·I,,I-------_._._...,"I ~HQS:>WESOURC£SI 1')'1.2~9".I 159.lbll2.I 759.2b85. //I CA~HES.MA~GINI 0.l'l9 ,O.l11 I 0.l58 I I IIolEllE"Vt wE",.I 117./119.'/121.,I /I·LOSSl:.S I 29.3a.,30.39.I 30.4l1. /I I!.L1 ..cC.JUR.CES I &l.3.25&:•.'610.2b03.I "Ot.l~·45. I //T1U'NSFEQEO I -la.I o.I o.,/I I I , SUI'lPLUS ,Ill.~.I 10.O.,5.CI. PeAK··Pt.u L04!)IIl;E.~E~AT1r~r.C4PACITY IlEl.Iu.lICEMENTUfolEr.A<fATTl;) "'PIJF ••MAX1t~u••P1.L4,.r UIILJZAIJUN fACTOI'l A~~F ••ACT~4L PL~~i uflLIZAT11lN fACTOR E~E~b'••Gt:.N~qATud~/A~~VAL E~E~G'~E~UJH.~ENTS(MJLLIONS OF 1<1lO~ATT.HO~RS) 'I 5000 Figure C-2-1 40 SOUTHCENTRALRAILBEL T LOADS 8 RESOURCES GROWTH FORECAST MEDIUM WITHOUT PROJECT U'I 100).c. 3000 lJ) «~ (!)~ ~« ~~ 2000 1000 ANCHORAGE FAIRBANKS r- 0 ?; ::0 ITl (/) 0c:ITI ::0 Xn::I: ITl .... CD»....:z -l»r-n-<I (/)N ITl (/)-m ~ "'t1 ::I: (/)- I I r:=::--==!-I .... 20009085 o I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 1980 TIME IN YEARS ,..···<'f, .' Figure C-2-2 4000 SOUTH CENT RAL RAIL9EL T LOADS a RESOURCES MEDIUM LOAD FORECAST INTERTIE 1991,WATANAI994 INTERCONNECTED RAILBELTSYSTEM 3009 (/l e:[~ (l)~ we:[ ,:::E~U1 l-) 2000 U1 1000 ANCHORAGE FAIRBANKS 90 ,TIME IN YEARS 85 o Iii Iii I i I Iii iii iii iii I i I 1980 5000 Figure C-2-3 4000 SOUTHCENTRAL RAILBELT LOADS Q RESOURCES ~OW LOAD FORCAST INTERTIE 1991,WATANA 1994 30°9 lJ) <fl- UI \.!ll- ""1.LJ<t 0-~~ 1"2000 1000 ANCHORAGE FAI RBANKS INTERCONNECTED RAILBELT SYSTEM 2000959085 o ,iii i I Iii iii .iii iii I I ii,j I 1980 TIME IN YEARS 5000 I NTERCON NECTED RAILBELT SYSTEM Figure C-2-4 SOUTHCENTRAL RAILBELT LOADS a RESOURCES HIGH LOAD FORECAST INTER TIE 1991,WATANA 1994 F 4000 1000 '°1 ...i ~ (/) e:(~ C)~VI UJe:(to) ~~...., 2000_ ANCHORAGE en '"I..., ~ o I '"o I to .f: FAIRBANKS 85 o I ,I Iii iii iii iii Ii'i ,iii i 1980 TIME IN YEARS YearEXHIBITC-3USABLECAPACITYSUMMARYTABLEC-3-1.USABLECAPACITYSUMMARY(DependableCapacityOnly)9411,Low?!94,Med94,High96,Med199419951996199719981999'200020012002?00320042005NOTES:1/2/*02799214265533533680680160680680680476*858*950*1,1516741,0231,0351,3476801,143'1,231*7311,1781,3478471,3211,0691,3391,1671,3471,28i1,347Watanapower-on-lineandint~rconnectiondate.Low,r1ediumorHighloadforecast..YearofDevilCanyonpower-on-line.528 --------------------------------------~. TABLE C-4-1 COAL-FIRED,FERC VALUES BASE CASE AND FUEL ESCALATION TO POL (B) (A)Fuel Base Escalated Item of Cost Anchorage Fairbanks Case Jj "to 1994 @ 2% Interest &Amortization,110.77 X .80 =$88.62 99.64 X .20 =$19.93 $108.55 $108.55 Interim Replacements,Insurance, ,and Taxes 9.26 X .80 =7.41 8.33 X .20 =1.66 9.07 9.07 Annual Carrying Cost of Fuel III Inventory .91 X .80 =.73 .48k .20 =.10 .83 1.20 w .Fixed Operating Costs '-.14.69 X .80 =11.75 16.29'X .20 ='3.26 15.01 15.01-0 Administrative &General 5.65 X .80 :::4.52 6~68 X .20 =1.34 5.86 5.86 Transmission Cost 30.25 X .80 =24.20 30.50 X .20 =6.10 30.30 30.30 1,; Total Capacity Cost ($/Kw)$137.23 $32.39 $169.62 $169.99 with Hydro Adjustment 186.58 186.99 Energy Fuel (mils/kWh)11.00 X .8b ~$'8.80 8.40 X .20 =$1.68 $10.48 $14.39 Var·iable O&M ,1.64 X .80 =,,1.31 1.82 X .20 =.37 1.68 1.68 Transmission Cost .65 X .80 =.52 .42 X .20 =.08 .60 .60 Total Energy Cost (mil/Kwh)$10.63 $2.13 $12.76 $16.67 -go ::E:m::c <:t:o mr><c:::J: m -OJ'-n -:t:o ......rn nc:Ir..j::o ==i-o:z (I) ,. 11 Base case is a composite value based on the weighted average of.Anchorage and Fairbanks values. The 80-20 proporti9n is derived from the relative ,future estimated electrical needs of Anchorage and Fairbanks." ~•..........•+.. TABLE C-4-3 TABLEC-4-4 OIL-FIRED,FERC VALUES (K)(L)Fuel Escalation No Inflation,Item of Cost to 1994 No Escalation Interest &Amortization 29.22 29.22 Interim Replacements, Insurance &Taxes 2.55 2.55 Annual Carrying Cost of Fuel Inventory 2.52 1.75 UI Fixed Operating CostsCo).., Administrative &General 2.98 2.98 'Transmission Cost 5.36 5.36 Total Capacity Cost ($/Kw)42.63 41.86 with Hydro Adjustment 44.76 43.95 Energy Fuel 33.28 .24.24 Variable O&M 1.70 1.7Q Transmission Cost .98 .98 Total Energy Cost (mil/Kwh)35.96 26.92 ·~ TABLE C-4-6 OIL-FIRED,FERC VALUES,FUEL ESCALATION AFTER POL (T)(U) (S)With 3%With 5% Without Inflation &2%Inflation &2% Item of Cost Inflation Fuel Escalation Fuel Escalation Interest &Amort1zation 29.22 S X 1.08 =31.56 S X 1.15 =33.60 Interim Replacements, Insurance &Taxes 2.55 S X 1.34 =3.42 S X.1.64 =4.18 Annual Carrying Cost of Fuel Inventory (2%Esc after POL)L X 1.32 ::;2.31 SX1.34=3.10 S X 1.64 ::;3.79 UI Fixed Operating CostsCo) ~ Administrative &General 2.98 S X 1.34 =3.99 S X 1.64 =4.89 Transmission Cost 5~36 5.36 5.36 Total Capacity Cost ($/Kw)42.42 47.43 51.82 with Hydro Adjustment 44.54 49.80 54.41 Energy Fuel (2%Esc after POL)L X 1.32 =32.00 .S X 1.34 ::;42.88 S X 1.64 =52.48 Variable O&M 1.70 S X 1.34 =2.28 S X 1.64 ::;2.79 Transmission Cost .98 .98 .98 Total Energy Cost (mi l/Kwh)34.68 46.14 56.25 UI W 0.[ Cost.Item Interest and Amortization Operation and Maintenance Replacement Total 'TABLE C-4-8 HYDROPOWER COSTS WITH INFLATION ($1,000) No Inflation 3%Inflation 5%Inflation--- 216,671 X1 =216,671 X1 =216,671 2,890 X 1.34 =3,873 X 1.64 =4,740 430 X 1.34 =576 X 1.64 =705 219,991 221,120 222,116 "., -_._.-.~._~.._-,_.~------------_._-.- NATA~.A~D DEVIL CA~10~~ID RA~~E !'''ESE ...T p E5~"T '!AIf-EUtlLE PIiESE'"FIll"..A~I(I::U~LE PIlESE'll SECJ'tOA~Y I"TERR',jP- NJ~T~Y~R(~TA~LE ~~T~nF CAPACITY FIR"ftOkT~FIR~E,ERGY SI::CQ~)AIlY ~ORT~SEC E~ERGY 'CAPACljy TOTAL ---YEC:~---F~C i;J'R _·C u'At-rn;-'tit AC I fr"--..~·i;EF I'r'S---t''1ERGY-----r"ERGy .-..3EI:EF ITS -E"E-GY---ENE~;;y-'-'IE ;EFI TS'--8E-"EFifs -'~eE/oE~nS-.........-.•...-.....---.-_--_._---...-.-.-.-..-_.-..._..._._-.-.........•--_..-.- ("fl)C~")CHOOO)CG~H)(to .....,CHO~Il)CG~")(G ....)CiIOOOJ (S10001 (SlOOO) 1~9~0.9357 27.0 25.3 ~713.~2q~7.0 2~04.2 35761.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 ~.O 40~95.3 1995 O.~75r,265.0 7.32.0 43267.1 3056.0 2677.2 3~lbl.4 397.0 3~1.6 4;35.0 0.0 81883.5 199~O.~192 6~&.O S51.0 103931.1 30S~.0 2505.0 31963.9 391.0 325.2 41~~.1 0.0 140044.7 ·---r<i'l'f-"--O;U;bS-----!;;io-.O----,,2i .Z--97211~~'o;---3058~O -'--23113.9---Z990·(.-i---39t·~·O----301l.3 --388i~7"-----i)-;o -13io31'.-0- .19'15.0.1172 950.&~~1.3 121116.3 6051.0 4313.9 551127.8 397.0 294.7 3633,0 O.~1&6119.0 19~.0.b710 1035,0 ~qll.~129583.2 ~051.0 110611.11 518b2.31.5.0 526.8 672:.5 0.0 188166.9 2000 O,6U9 1231.~772,9 ll1u208.3 6057.n 3803.0 q8526.1 755.C 1192.9 62~9,'1 0.0 199023.5 lllOI 0.5815 1347.0 7'11.3 1"'646~7 6051.0 3~o;8.3·IlSIIOII.5 185.0 4&1,2 56811.5 511,9 198990.5 .2002 1l.511971341.0 140,4 138148.9 ~Oo;1.0 3j29.4 42~83.8 785.0 Q31.S 55D&.0 9076,6 195215.~---.-.----.----.-..----------.---935882.7·-----··-----------··375,.,19~T---·-·------·-------ji0501.il--·-·9f31._4-13610-3"';7- I"T1 X ::I:..... CO..... -l n I (J1 ..-_.._----.__.._-_._.- ._-_.._---_.-----------_...._..-..--_._-.._-_...-._.- _..._-_.~-_..._---._._.._--,....., OEV~I,.()PM.ENL __...._.......__•._.~APA~IT.y _~.f'lE RG Y SECONOA R~_T OT"J,.~!••!'UWER_....."LjJEsLlr•.r~R~~L. DE~IL tANYO~1410 RAI-IGE·20211~~..,..!!J!_Z89.8a8.6.•..::..C!.~~._'_7_'!OJLO ...._-- -0 ~ I"T1 ;;C CO I"T1 2005 ...',.':z -----20 '1'---1 ;91bb-----n4'1;;O .---rn ';4;5 -2001170h"1 '--bij'51'~-(i'--lill:H II ;2----·6Tb1l8·9~7.--185__;o-62i>f;&--7-989i:l~-4--nn 12~il-8J2803;9-~ .~P"E5E·H ~JRTH llE~EFITS ..._..,_291l0~8~.5 __.~.....9~2008.9...--120399'1 1110.8Q3,6 11193838 •.'_-__~ CRF:0,0688 .AV _A~"'l ..BE\I~F1--'S:=_...202427.5 ...__-'~.__._...__.._._..,6.8289 .•.1.._..__._...82118.•.._.9695.1>....2887.!I0 •.•.._n )::0rnc:r ==i 1-4o:z V) 5YSII::'"JF"~E"5Y5TE14 ·~ATAIiA A~O -'-~E;j-s-Yi·TEM ----_._.__.._----------------- CAPACITy VALUE :186.58000$/K~.YR I::~t,,~y VALUE :12.1bOOO~ILL5/K~K SECO~OA~Y VALUE=12.7bOOO~ILLS/K~K ,.-UHI::"EST RATE =.0.06875'.-...----------.-.-.-----.--.---.------.----.------ ._1-CAfk fT';'--I::T;E~GY--~-.E·CO~'DARY I NTEii.-:£'"'S"'T..------------ 196.58~12.-?C!.__1.2.J.I!...~.O'87~_.__..__.__.........._...._. ..f _.------- '.--'-------_.._.._-..._._-~--_._---_._.._---_.__.__..---- .'--_.-_._-_.--_..•.__..____.___.._--_.__.__.._..__.__._._..__.___.-._.-.__._.__- ,_-_..-__---_.__._--_. _._-..•_-_._-_._..__.--..-._--_._----.._.._--._---..-_•.._--'---~.__---_-,._.._._--- I>;:.._..-----.'...-'--".._.--_.--_.._...----_.._-- 1 ",U".A lLO~E •COAL PRESE"T P~ESENT NJ~T~vA~<ETA~LE "QmT~OF---Yra"il---F-aCToq--cA'PAclr'Y--fAi:':iit"tTY ~AR'ETA~LE PQESE~T FIA~~ARKETA L£ CAPACITY FJA~~ORTH FIQ~E'~kGY SEC0~ARY ~E-';EFJ'S-·E·;t.Rr.1'-F.IIEAGY -BE"f.F1TS E'Jl::::;Y PRES~~T SECO~~AQY I~TE~~UP WORr~SEC E'[~G'CA~ACITY TOTAL E':ER',;V .,.SE"f~ITS·-il'E:'lEr'ITs---·eE''lfFnS._._.-...------_..-.-.-.---.-.-.--_.-._._--.---.---...-.-.....--_.-...--.----.-..~._.-... ("iN)('.•q (HOOO)(G"-I)Cit/H)(S1000)(G"")(G"'-f) 199/1 G.B51 21.0 .2S.3 4713.b ?9Q7.0 2!l04.'2 30;7'1\1.7 '.0 0.0 1995 0.'155 2"5.0 2'3('.0 0;3257.1 3'l58.0 2611.2 3l11b1.4 3·17.~3117,,6 199&1).~192 6'30.0 ~,,-51.0 lH931.t 3058.0 2505.0 31Qio3.9 :scH.O 125.2 ---i99'1--0~f&bS---'&80-;-0---"'S.z1;Z-'97ilfS'-S'--'305t"~-O--23113~9--29907.7------'39i~r----!O1l.3 ___....21l9111.3 .t3Jl:'~0.8 (511)00)(SI000) 0.0 0.0 /j1l35.0 ,0.0 11149.1 7&./1 -31!/l2.7 ----'5505 '.8 12 4 &7.3 5552.2 (flOOO) 11(1/195.3 818B.5 100121.1 13654 i-;'8- 3 9 90,41.•7. -------------------------_.._-_. 0.0&88 AV A~'4 BEIIEFlTS = --_.--------------;.-998--- 2094 11.129'! PRESE'".;jRTH &E~EF ns CRF: &1\0.0 75 'till.3 11112089.II 1&&12&&." 110360.2 3058.0 311035.0 113/42"6.5 5&6101.3 ·,38969.9 397.0 114U.5 5&380.6 688<17.9 /4739.4 799<19.2 1982~05.7 855jl.1I 2381741.4 5887.9 1,63957.5 UI W (lI) 'CAPACITY VALUE =186.56011U/K".·YR" ENERGY VALUr =12.7bOOO~ILLS/K"~ SECO';[)AClY IIALUE=12.76000~ILLS/K..1' ~.E.~E_S_'_'l~_tL __~h~~87L __.. 1 CAPACITY ENE~GY SECONDA~Y INTE~EST 1 1!l&.58 12;76'li.7b·'lD..Ob875·...-., ..•-.._--.._.._-_....._------_....._-_._.. -_.-_--_-~..-_..•_.-_-'.---_._.------_.-_..------'-~._-'._.'--- .-CAPACITY ENERGY'SECONDARY'i'OTALS~~';;POWEii VALUE'S""ii·iTERES-' 1 ... SYSTE~JF OEVELOP~ENT "4Eo'l SYSTE"'N"iTliij',,''i.Oijf-~-COAL .~El't SYSJE14 ,C _,".,__•••_.".~...•__~~•••_.__,,.. 1111360.389'70.11739.1639,58 • .__..-.._-_.._----._--_.__..-.- .-------,"'...,-_------_._-_.~.-_.-_._.-_. --_._..-._-..,....._.._..'-'--- -.-'-'-'-.-..__._-_._._.--_.__-".--_..__..-_.__.._-_.~.__.. _._,-_....._-.....__..---_.---_..__.,-.-- -....,-....-.•..-.----....__..._-.-".__.-_.._._.__._...;-_...._--_.--_..-~- ..-.__..-.._-_...._._--_._,-_._-_._-_._.---..._--_...- ..__._-"-"_.'--'_._"...-....--_.... FEO~~aL FI~A~CI~G .,.,._--_.._-,..-----------,. , PRESE'IT P<::;SE'>IT "ARK~TABLE ;:>QESENT ..)"T"I "'AIi<ETA~LE "0';""'JF CAPACIH hill'"'u;cT>4 FI;c"-----'YEAfI----FAe TOq--C AFA-CI fy -CAl'>lC lTi'-BE-,'EFI f:;--'E,,!:PGY"'E<;ERGY . FIR""ARI(~TA~LE E~ERGY SfCG-1AQY ·'lE.EF·iis --E'~.:;' pqES~~T SEC~~~Aqy l~TEqqup ~GQT~SEC E~EqGY CAPACITY TOTALE'iE Q~Y ~E;\HI TS-'I3E'IEFfnf---aEi'-ETftT VI Co) -0 --.......-.__.•.--.......-.---.-.-.--_.---------._.-.---._._._.-...-.-..----.-.-------.-.-.-.-..,--_._-.- (v,.)(".,,)('H,O(\)(G,,")(:;IIM)(51000)(G ..1i)(G"",)(SlO~O)(SlOOO)(S1000) 19qa 0.93<;7 27.0 2<;.3 4175.ft ;>997.0 2~04.2 357/11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 399S&.1 1995 0.e75S 2&5.0 232.('383tlo.1!3056.0 2b77.2 341bl.11 :397.0 3.J7.&11435.0 0.0 769:37.2 19'1&0.8192 &~O.O <;0;;7.\'9205'5.2 305e.o 2505.0 319&3.9 H7.'325.2 111149.7 0.0:128168.8 l~rj7----0-.7!>&S---&!f6~-0---5<i'i-.z--·~6133-.5.--.-30!)8'-0 ---23143.9 -29q07;-"---39t~c--'-3~a~Y--31l~2;7----0~-rl rq9Z/j~-0- 19'18 0.7172 950.0 b~J.3 112592.1\b057.0 4343.9 55427./1 397.0 2~Q.7 3633.0 0.0 171653.& 19'19 O.&71~lri55.~h~~.~11~7j~.1 '057.0 a064.4 51 A62.3 7~5~~S2~.9 6721.S 0.0 173J5q.8 'ZOOO 0.1>279 123t.~7"j:2.o lZ77Jl!.r b057.0 3 A 03.0 1/&52b.l H5'-O a9Z.9.621l<l.1 0.0 182545.2 ~OOI O.5~75 1347.0 7~1.3 130775.5 bO~7.0 5558.3 Q5a04.S7~5.0 1461.2 581l4.5 48.S 18211:3.1 2002 0.5tl97 13a7.0 7~o.1/122363.0 6057.9 3329.4 1/24'3.8 795."451.5 ~~Ob.O 8019.4 178392.2------...---..-.-..------.------.-.----eziiq4Y;9------·---------·-·-----375519~·:r-----·----------.-..-'---40;01;4 -·-8oa!f~(j1·253056;S- .•.. Z003 .. -·----·20 If4-.-.,-;i:l1b6---rfii",-.-O---!07<U4-S-f?7SbJr;i>--bOS·f;o----48314.y--61b489.6--7~·5-;O-·--b2bC.-&-----rc:;8·q8;ti-lrb6&f~6-i5-88&ilT.T pqESPIT liJRTH flEIl/EFITll ._'.2604573.5 .._9Q2"01l.9 120199.7 1247 IH.7 38111731.8 .eRF=0.0l»81l ..A'y UN BE'Ir;nTS:'.17_929.6 •.7._._. --------------- 611289.1..821l8.2...._..85!7 •.7_2.64/161.6 .. ._-_.._._----_._---------------- CAPACITY VALUE 165~26000·iIKiI.YR E,~EIlC.Y VALllE 12.76000"'IL:LS/KWH SEC:l'JI)A'l~VALUE 12.76000"'JL"S('_~~!l.. ill/T~REST QATE 0.06875L... .. _ CAPACITY E~EQGY SECOillDAQY INTE~ST I 1&5.26 12.76 ...__.12 .•.71>__01 ..06875 .1 .........".'."-,-..__..•.-.--_."---------_.__.__._-------_._----- ..----.---._.__.._-.__._.-._--_._-._--_.-._--"-- ••.._••••._•••__'._M_••__._••_ .SYSTE"1 OF'DEVELQP.~E~J_._..._...__.___ .__...... !'IE\';SYSTE'l {~f.E:$~Ta~-~l_C_I~G!L-___,.----_--- "~",:.,--_.--_..•.---_-------_.._-_._---__-.._----'",--'-"".'-,..-._-". Co\P.AC Ill.ENERGY ..SECONOARY ..TOT.ALS·":'.~PO ...ER ..\IAl.tJEs __...__l.NJE!fESl H9.2'1.I..........1>8?~.~__~MI!L-.a6.'!ll1...L._ .._•.•'••_.,0 •••__.._~._._____:_,,_••._. - ___.•.__•.•'.'__H_'.,_:•.~_••,.•••.•.•...••••••••_ •._.,.•_ • _.•••••••""0 "•••_.."_ ......__.._-.-1----...___-._-. .__-_._._-_'._-_ -..•'..-._.._.---_. ,~ED~~.~F!NA~CI~G •NATA~A ALO~E P~ESE~T P"'~SE:,T ..J~Tti MAR~EU!lLE ,,(I;T":IF '---YEff"'-~AC"r'j~--CA-PACITy'-t;'1',ACITY ~Aq~ETA~LE pqESE~T CAP~CITY Flw~~O~Tti ~IR" RE"EF ITS t:"'ERI;~..E'IERGY , FIR'!"'\~O(ETAilLE E~ERGY 5ECD~~A~Y "E'In ITS E',e.IlGY P~ESE~T SECJ~DARY ~1IlT"SEC E~ERGY E"'E~~Y 6E~tFITS I"rEItQIJP , CAPACITY TOTAL 8E~EF ITS "--'8E~EFITs-.-.---...-_._-...-...-.-.-...-...-...-........__.-........ C"~)(V .oi)(~I!)!I!I)(GMi)(GIIM) 19~o 0.9357 27.0 ·2~~3 0175.11 2997.0 2804.2 19~5'0.8755 2~5.0'~~2.n 3R340.~3C~~.0 2&77.2 19~~0.819Z 680.0 ~~7.~920~S.Z 305~.0 2505.0---~I<i'i"7--'-o:-r6&S 680~·-0-"-';'21.2-"-86133 .5..-·....·3059.0--·'23113.9 20?07011.5 ($1001)(G~H)(G~")($1000)(SIOOO)(SIOOO) 357 ....1.•7 0.0 0.00.0 0.0 39956.7 lell&l.o 397.0 347.6 11435.00.0 76937.2 31Y&'.9 397.0 325.2 0149.7 67.7 128236.'299"o7-;i----39T~o--···-30tl;3------3882-._7--1i87&·;f-120800;r 131814.8 124&7.3 4904.4 3&9931.0 I).Ob88 AV'A'illlj BE~EFlTS : 56380.&70813.6 1812210.' 68841.9 '75758.0 2182145 •• til ".,o ----199·5 21)~~11.1298 'PRESElT ~JRrH 8E~EFItS CRF: &80.0 7~:.Ol\.l 1250733.7 11171 U8.2 10129Z.6 30S8.0 34035.0 43a2a6.5 51.>&101.3 311969~9 39 7.0 041!!.5 11739.4 5Z15.i ISOZll.i· CAPAClTt VAL:JE :iI.>5~i60·0'O·'jK·";YR --. E'lE~GY ~~LI)~:12.7&nOO"ILLS/~olIHI SECO~DA~Y VAL~E:12.16000~IL~S/K~H' -.J!jT~.!'..~.~~A.H_·;__Q...Q.~.~-,-7,,-5 _ I CAPACITY E4ERGY S~COIljDARYI~lE~EST I 1~~.2&1~.7~12~76 -m.O~~7S __••__._••,._•••.~-0.'. ....-----_.__--_._._.-,'._--_-.~--_..--._--.._-.-~---~,._.,."_.._-_.,~.-_•....•.._-_.._._---_.-.,--------_. -..-.•..........._-.__-_..__..-._--_..-•..'_..--.,..._---------_._-_.._--_.-. SYSTE"JF DEVEI.OP E~T-..·-~··--c-·";-·-..··..---·--··--_..--_..-.---._._--.CAPAC'IT"Y'ENERGY·SECONDAQ·Y'-fOfiLS.~~PO",fR-VACl"'ES·T iNTERE'ST ,'IE'"SYST<"" FE'oE"RA'L-Fi"NAt.CIl\4G •~ATAIljA ALO~--iOI293.-389~47"j9."""1--=S--=O--=Z..,.I-=7-.---,-,------'------ 'liE"SYSTEIII --,---._-_..._.---._--_.---------"--_.-_.'....-----.-._.-.-.-_...•._------_.----_..•.__._--...._.,.-....._.....---_.,-----_._------_._---_.-.-.__.__._.._.- :~---.---_.----_.,---'-----_.._------_..... ~:...,.'-' :::..17 .~... :/.."..- .--...--.-.-.------~._._--_....._.._,-----~---'-. ---_.--_.--.._-_.__.,.-._--_...__._--:-._------_-!....:._._.;._._--;._.:....-.-- .........._....._,.,.._-_..._,,--'-'-_...'-'-'-'_..._._--.__..._---------...._.._---_.- 5l :iSCOU~T QlTE pqe.SE,T ==!SE\T ~AR~ETA~LE pqESE~T Ft~u uA~~ETA~LE ftJ~T~~A~~ETA3LE ~)~T~OF CAPJCIT'Flq~AO~T~F~~~E~E~GY SECG~CAR' ---YE~';f~----F'AC-TtiR---C_'C'AC fTY---C~:~C I tv"~f"EF I"T5--E-~E.;:CGY ---e"-lEq(;y --'-':!E\EF n 5 E',E;<!>Y PRESEt'SECO~DARY I~TE~~UP ~ORT~SEC ENE~GY CAPACITY TOTAL E';E.~:;Y ~E"EFIT$---6E\jEFI TS--~E"En~- I .-.---...---.-.---.-.-...-.-.... (Un)( -~) l"H O.~'i2~.27.(1 2'5.7 lq Q S 0.qJ70 2&5.0 ZJ1.~ Iq~&O.~b5R &'0.0 ~Q7.U ---Tqq7--lr.~227----&i\O.-O---5,,9.'1 lq~~·0.1~35 Q50.0 !ail.3 lqqQ O.7~b2 1135.0 ~7~.3 20Q~0.7107 1231.0 ~7".~ 2001 0~&7bR IJa7.0 ~11.7 ____~~.O_2 0_.&~~'!..I?I_fO 7~':it ~•.~_. --...-.-.-.....---.......-.-...-----....•••........-..........-.........- (SI(!(lO)(G,,")(G"I'l)('!(!JQ)(10";0)(G ......)(UOOQ)(UOOO)(S1000) "7~7.a 2'1117.0 2/15:.1.3 3""2".7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 •.0 Q1218.5 ~~.;u".q 30511.0 2773.7 353Q2.11 3'H.~J!oO.1 0511<:.8 G.O 8<:834.0 1 (lIlSq'l.1l 30'5tl.O -_..21>"1.&...._-33707.0 3 Q 7."3"2.q "376.0 0.0 1"71>81.8 1\)<l37",.q ----30'51'.0 2515.8 32101".9'-'-3q7~'O ----32!>.!>----~lb7~---O.0-iqO!>"9~il- 13IlR~(\."11057.0 117'15./1 6055b.b 3q7.!!311 •1 391>q .1 0.0 203406.6 1~<111)1.~6057.,)1151q.l!571>73.0 785.0 585.8 7"7-4.5 0.0 20 11 2I1q." II>\ZZq.:\&n57.0 u3fl".0 5aqZb.7 785.0 557,9 7118.6 0.0 22527".5 ·17(1105.5 1>057.0 lI!!qq.1>52311.1 785.0 531.3 6779.6 bl.l 229259.3 Ib~O~5.2 -.-1>057 •.0 3QOIl.1I ",qllZO.l 7il5.0 50b.1)6451>.8 10b"".0 2Z8~26.1--loul9UIl~1 ....-----.-...--.-"---··,j·12Q\lq.5--·..-.---"---.-------_.....-Q"Q37.0 --.l0707.f·i510~99.6 2003 20Q/l 12.7"01 13117.0 17~~0.9 320J/I!lG.b "~ESE.·H"JRT':tKE\j.£.f.I.T~_....42"3826.6 lnOOI.O 127612.0 210311'.$1152Q50e.8 17Z511Q.1I 2'21075.7 0035008.4. U1' ~- CRF=O,O~OIl AV .A~~6E\jEF11$=213817.3 6057.0 771116.7 QJa1l1l7.3 785.0 13Q7550.•.8 _..... ._._.701113.3 _._l!693.0 11138.5_304002.7 ------_._---------_..---_._-_._-- CAPACIT1 VALUE =186.5'0005/~~.YR E'~ERGY VALue =12.76000~ILLS/I(i\'" sEca~'IDAR1 VALUE",.1~,760oJO"lLLS/_I("....__. INTE.REST RATE =0.050001--..._...._..._..__._._._ CAPAC:~'E~E~GY SECO~~ARY INTeREST 186.58 .12.70.12,70_11).05000 ._."---_.__.._-------- .SYSTE'4 OF _oEvELOPMENL ._.. 'IE~SYSTE" ~';l_Q.t~£';!_,1.~_LR.ill .. 'liE·.StSTE'1 ..~-_._.__.._---_...."._----.._~_.. .....•..."'---'--"'-..._-_.__.__...._.-_._..._._•....... _______._.__.__._..CAPAC 1TY.ENERGY SECO"lDARY:J:)TAI.S·••POWER _YAJ.UU __'_INTEREST. ________--,-_.....Z13.UZ ......._.l..Q...'U.h..8.b_931.L._3.9_Il.OU......------------ -_._..._------_._._--_._-_..--.__.._...---._-. .~z OJ':DU~T PATE p~ESE.T .p~3£\T ·AR~E'A~LE PQESE~T ~I~u ~t~kfTA~LE P~E5E'T SEC)~~ARY r~TE~~UP I<JH ..IAiHEUiLE II.::';")F CAPACITy FIQ"'-0""'"FIR'"·E"FRGY SfCO"I)Uf ";J~T ...SEC E'1t:RI>Y CAPACITY TOTAL---;;-Y'E&"i--F':;CT;)~--CA"AC'ITt -CA;:':IT'Y'-~E"EF ITS'E'.E.;:/c;-Y---P.E;;CY·---,BE'.E'n fS''E"~~G;--~·.E"iGY -9E'.EFlrs-"EiE'4EFITS--·ifE'iEFiTs--.......-.........---..._-------.----.-.-.-..--. ("1)C·,, 1~'1<1 0."~';q21.0 :.Co lq~5 0.8573 ~&5.~?-.~ I'Hb 0.7'13'~,\O.O o;.'.!l ----rq~·7"--O;Hso---b-'l~.O----.r·.1'- 1""~0.6a~~"SO.O ~~.o 1~""0.b30~103S.0 b l.i! ZOOO 0.5'35 Il31.Q 7 ,.3 2001 0.~~33 1347.0 7 7.7 _____.?-o.!]l!.•.!~Q?__.l..~<1},._o !,J.II (UoC·.» <Ibb~.5 <lll90.,' H(0717.0 ·n2~a·.5-- 120b3oJ.l 1~lbq2.? 13401b.l 13S76~.1 1257Z~.2 871181b.7 (G .....) Zqq7.0 3J5"'.o 3 0 511.0 '30511:0-" b057.0 bO'H.O 0057.0 b057.0 ,_~~5J.'.~~, (G ....)Ul0'IIO)(C,,>4)(C.....)(1000)(S1000)(S1000) ~775.0 35 ..0'l.0 0.":1.0 0.0 0.0 00073.5 ~~?1.7 33"'53."J'H.O 3 a O.1I 43'13.0 0.0 80186.5 ?U27.5 30 Q 75.4 3,,7.0 31S.~4021.3 0.0 135713.7 ~~1I7.'t - .211i>1I~.'1-----'3'11'.0"-----2ql;s '--"~'723''-5 ,-----.>;O--"f25b'6.0;9 11122.3 52bOO.5 3'17.0 270.2 3447.b 0.0 176682.1 381&.q 4~10~.1 785.0 4q~.7 b31~.2 0.0 176708.5 353".2 U50~b.U 785.0 Q5~.0 58~4.6 0.0 1811957.1 J272.4 41755.9 785.0 42a.l 5411.7 50.4 183000.1 3030.0 36bb2.Q ·185.0 3~2.7 5'010.6 82&0.3 177b58.~..,-..-355338.6-------'-------..,-....-...st\lll1~7----8ltO~--;'12806.oif;6-· 200J .~---20 qa--(";2ti7~--'-'B4 r~0 '----,f4 1 :;:i Ts7oiz~-"ii --''''';;051';0 -'--3'76'i'-o -;7-48-284-7;.---'--18'5-;0-'''4-9'0 ti~-'-6i57-l\_;O---IOj'f5~-;'b'l~18 709-:1 t-.)PRESE'~T 'IJRTti BE'll:.FIT$2114'1001.1 838185.7.1006q~.7 InIl70.33499349.7 CRF=0.0800 AV A~~8E'lEFJTS =191>009.2,,.__..67085 •.3._.....8059.1 -----------_. 8921.1 280075.3_. C~PACITY V~LUE =19'.58000f/<N-YR E~ERCY VALUE =1~.7bonO~ILLS/K~H SECO~;:>I\IlY VALliE:12.7bl)(lO~ILLS/Ktiti . I~'E~EST RATE :0.08000 .....- L ,..~__._.._....~__,.._,.. CA!'A'::'HY ENERGY ~ECD""HIY r~!E,.EST .1 18&.58 12.76._U.76 ..1).08000_,__..__.... SYSTE~nF ~EVELOPMENT-'4EI~SYSTE"I .....--...... i¥OISC)J"IT RATE-~-f~·SySTf;'i-----------._-_._,----- CAPACIT_LENEAGY SECONDA~Y .TOrAI.S~.~POWER .VAI.UEli.&..INTEREST ___.1.'!~()0'l,L__6_·tO~~j!.2.59_L.l.&..Q_Q,1.5CA.._:_-------- .._h,._.~_.",.~._...__._.....__.••••••__._.••__,.0 ..-------,._-_••_-_•• .t.o"LOAO GIlO"'1o ~AK~ETA9LE PHEsE"'T CAPACITY FIPu ~n~T~~lllu ~E~EF liS E"E.AGY···t.~E~·GT p~ESEI.T r>llfSE",T "J1TH "A"4\ET!~LE ·..···Il'"(IF ----Y-Ei,,--'FACDil'"CA;>~CITY"CA"ACIn FIll,.."AIll(E Ue-LE E~EIlGY SE.C~~CA~Y ·8t.~EFIT~t.~E~G' IlyTEllqUP CAPACtTY TOTAL bE·.EFllS .BENifITS- ($1000) 3<;'181.1 735S2.8 117577 .2 l.51 0 3ii'~0- tna&8.6 166"&4.5 188714.5 1(10'111.4 1811172.·1 17H97~'Z 1"42&3.2 155334.9 1(15971.4 137243.4 129034.3 1213U5~·&·' 1111&1I~.5 21112353.4 (Gn~)(fl000)(51000) 0.0 ~.O 0.0 3~7.&4435.0 0.0 325.2 4149.7 0.0 30~.3'--'--3882.-7"-_.,-'0'-0 2~~.7 3633.6 O~O 52b.~6721.5 0.0 4~2.9 1:o2~q.1 0.0 4bl.2·58841.5 0.0 all.5 550&.~0.0 ~OJ.7 '5151.8'-"'"0.0 571.8 U~20.4 1302.0 353.5 ~510.3 285&.5 330.7 4220.2 l301.& 309.5 39U'l.7 3751.2 289.6 3&9a.7 aI2'!.l ?70.9'-'-3<157.0 4~15.4 253.5 3234.6 5332.3 n539.1 2S1118.2 P~ES~~T SEC~~CAqy ....i=;Tol S:::E'EqGY E.P'E:>l[;T "I}E,.EF 1 is (G""') Q.O 197.0 3'17.0 lell.~ 3-".0 7~~.O B5.0 . 7 8S.0 7!!S.~ US.o 785.0 71!'5.0 78'5.0 785.0 7'1S.0 7@r;.o 78'5.(\ (G,,>;)(SlOOn) 2804.2 35781.7 2&77.2 3u\61.U 2505.0 ~19&3.9 2343.9 ·-·'2 Q 907.7 a3a3.9 5'S427.8 40641.4 '511'&2.3 ~"'03.0 48521:0.1 3558.3 4540U.5 3329.U 42483.8 3115:3'-'39750'.9' 2914.9 37193.8 2721.4 34801.2 2551.9 325&2.& 2l87.8 30467.9 2234.2 2~S08.0 209'0~li --?"67cl.Y-··.. 1956.0 24958.2 &304l&.0 (Gi,H) 2997.(.1 31)51'.0 30S!.O 30'S&.0 b057.0 bOS7.0 ·b057.0 '>O'H.O &00,7.0 bO'S7.0 />057.0 &0'S7.0 60'S1.0 0057.0 b057.0 &057.0 &057.0 OHOC) c;.'·h9'S1).; I!\Ub.\.7 972"~~S 11~807.C \ZEO!.'I'I." I:BEQQ.3· 12'H22.3 135a~2." 1?~"Cl".5 120'147.0 1131b&.~ \05~"11.\ 9'1075. 9271)2.41 ~e,73Q.'· /1115'1.3 1683230.\ ("")(....) 19~q ().~357 0.0 0 . 0 19'1'5 0.a7S'S 21U.(l t81.u tHI>0.~192 ~n.1l ~3l>.b 19~7:-'-O.7&65----1;~o~ii--·-'!l2·(.2 19"~0.7172 8S~.0 &15.3 19~"0.&710 1023.0 l>!r..5 Z~Da ~.'2J9 llu3.0 717.7 20~1 O.5~75 117~.0 ~q2~n 20~2 .0.51Q7 '13~ljO 12&.1 '---""-2(j(\r·'--0.'511l3 .'"133'1~O-·--"·n!if".7 2004 o.a R IZ 13~7.n 6~n.Z 200~0.US03 13U7~O 60&.S· ZO~&·0.U213 13U7.0 'S&7.5 Z007 0.39UZ 13417.0 531.0 2003 0.3&89 13417.0 49&.9 '2(1),,--'-O.3ilS i --"-134 7 ~·O·---:ln4.9 2010 0.3229 1347.0 43~.O Ul oIlo Co) -------------_._--------------------_._._-------_._---.....:.---------_._-_._-----_.-._---.._--- 772119.5 1&61447.2 102397.7 401.3800.6., IIbl\&0.6 .12039'1.7 3672.578'5.(\&057.06301.7 11757&4.2 .2858994.3 2833&.4 361572.8 ....992008.9 .__-'O'-".~(l~JL..!.\!.._A~urnllHu;__....1..9.6.UP_J un9.1 -.6ZU..e.Z_--2.QIJ.L..O-...2UUL.L CRF= 2011 . 209U 4~6783 13417.0 .PRE5E'~T ~O~TH..~E'lEf.IT.S __. SYSTE~JF DEVELOPME~T.-':«-,y SYSTE~--·--- LO"j LOA)GIlOWTti ''lE.y 9,(5TE'I . 8288.2801137 •..196811.6~28'1. .cJ.PA.nU_J~~_fj~..U;E.~(I.'!.I?A..QLn.LA.I,~_~_':~_Q!'I_;ll_..Y!.I,Q~JI.....L1~EREST _.'_.-..--_._._..__.. _.....---_.-..'_...._,--."_.----------,_..._-_.__.'--_...-_...,--_.....-_. CAPACITY VALUE =18&.'Saooosl~N·YR_. E~ERGY VALUE =12.7&000~ILLS/K~H _~j:C.nr;D:~".1 ..J.Al,.jJ;';:J~.76'tl1.0.~[!S.!!~ l~TEREST RATE =O.Ob875 I. CAPACITY E~ERGY SECti~DARi)NTERESi-- ...1 18&.5/l 12.7b 12.76.O.O&87~ 1 ..-:-------_._----------------_. -------------- HIG-L.OAD GqOIlTH P"lESE'iT "'ES~.'jT "AJ~I<E rA"LE PllESE ...T F!l""'AQI(EH!lLE .PRE5.E."T SECJNOARY ~':H"··U<ETl'1LE .A "TH lIF C"P~C[TY Fl~'"",a:lT'"FIR>!E EIotGY SIOCu'fvA~Y ..()kT-l SEC E',ERGY .----·1t6~-·--·"F"4C r')Q----c'4C>;;ci r\'--C';-,AC r"T'---6E"EF I TS -·E·fE~i;Y-·E"E!l(;,,,,---"6 'ifF'fTs E·.~;lGI'E "ERGI'aEIo,EFI rs I "TE!l!l!./P .-- CAI'ACITy TOTAL BENEF I rs'---flE~Ef frs-•............--.-__--.--._----_._•••.•....•.__-.....--..•.......• (....\) 19~~0.9157 ~~.c 1915 0.87~5 533.~ lQ~~~.~lQ~~~u.o---T9if7'--O:ibl;S----.b~6 ~0--· 19~~0.7172 1151.~ 1999 0.b710 1147.0 (..,") C;~.b ":,,->1>.6 '''''7.0 ''';~(.~ !I~5.•5 '903.9 (~1000)(G,h)CGftH)($1000)(G~~)(G~~)($1000)('1000)(SI000) 17283.2 2997.0 2~~Q.2 35781.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 53064.9 670b~.3·305~.o 2b77.2 34161.4 397.0 347.6 4435.0 0.0 125660.7 103931.1 305'.0 ..2S05.~31963.9 397.0 325.2.4149.7 0.0140044.7.97 2 ~5 ~r;..·'-3051.1.0'-'·'23~3 .9·-·29QQ7 •...,...-·3q·7~·O-··---30·Q~3 "-'-·'3"8'2 ~T-----o-;'o-'13103/1'-0- 154013.8 6057.0 4343.9 55Q27.~397.0 28Q.7 3633.0 0.0 213074.6 168bll6.0 b0'57.0 G064....'51862.3 .765.0 526.8 6721.5 11080.3 238310.0 628163.9 23'H04.9 228~1.8 11080.3 901190.8 (1.0688 Av A"'I BE"'EFIT~J;= 7647.2 97578.0 160856.9 34S963c .6 120399.7 171937.2 Q36082~.Q til t 2000 2~94 9.741b 1347.0 PRESE~r ~a~IH BENEFITS CRF: nU2Z •./)2/l48Z9l>.7 3071>480.6 211782.4 6057.0 59005.0 752904.0 99Z008.9 68289.1 ·H5.0 8288.2 11836.0 300195.7 CAP~ClrY V4LUE =1~~.58000'/l<ft.YR ._~!'j.E.'~G I'Y.~LUI-._...~_..12.70.0 0.9"I.LL.!i/~•.I~_ SECO~O~~Y vALUE:12.7b~OC"ILLS/K~~ I~TEQEsr.RATE ~0.06~7S 1 ........_.-_.'...•.--.-_-..-.--"._'--"---__._--- CAPAcm--ENEllGY-SECONDAqy-fOTA-CS';;~;;POW{R-VALLlESiINTEREST -___-_.._'.__.-..-~----__---_------.- CAPACITY ENERGY SECO~OARY lNT~~EST 1 l!1lt.58·12.76 '12.71>(0.06875-L .~_.._ SYSTE~.OF OEVELOP~ENT .!:..'~Y:SIE'"~IGH LOAD GROWTH' ·,_-'~.El'sysTE"_.....__._..211782.68289._.._.._------_...---_..-.._....._.,----,_..----_. 8288.300196~....... ;-_...__._--_._-.---_._-...._--_..__.-._-_._-_.....'.. .--._....~_..._.._..._-_...-..-•....._.-.._..._..-._.._..._..... ---~..¥...._••_•••_.-••-•••--_._-•••••••-_••_-_...._. ._..'-_.-_-___._._._.•.__.._.--,.__..__.._--._--_.-..__._._.._.._._-_.._..__.-._-_:....._--_.__._._._--_.__-..__._--_._-_.._-_._._. .::..... --------------------- T~O YEAll CO~STRUCTIO~OElAY PRESE'T P~ESE~T ~'~T~~~RCETA~LE .~~r~OF --·--yfi-ll---~Ac"r",)~-··-C'4 D.\(:I TV --CADACiTi' vAq~~TABLE PRESE~T FIR~~AR~ETA~LE CADACIT,~IRv ~ORT~FI~~E~E~~Y SECO~~.~' 9E~i::FI fs E"EllGY'"['jERey'--SPIEF (TS .E"t:;.1GY- PRESE~T SECO'~ARY I~TERll~~-' hJllT~SEC E~E~bY CAPACITY TOTAL E~,ERG'f 'dEr.,EFITS '!:lE-'EFIrs--"a"EiIEFIT"s--.-....--.......-.......-----...---...---._.-.....---.-_._.__.-------..------.-._.---..----_.-......-.- ('t.,)(Yh)01(00)(GhH). 19~b O.q~51 IbO.O IU9.1 27932.4 29Q7.0 l~q1 0.~7S~41~.0 41~.7 71753.5 30S8.0 19~q 0.8192 &1u.O S~2.1 lQ301~.1 3ns~.0 ----i"q'~-q--'il.16&S-'---&~,j~o---<;21.2'--97lQ'5 .S'-.-"30511.0 2900 0.71T2 131.0 SZ~.Z 971l1~.Z &057.0 2091 0."710 8~7.0 '5b ll .Q 10bOQ5~Q bvS1.0 2032 O.?27910&~.O .,1.2 125230.Q &051.0 Z003 tl.5d75 '11&7iO e~s.b 1~791b.&&051.0 2004 O.5~97 12111.0 10~.1 131319.9 &057.1 --'~2065''-''--0-.51113 ----'13'41 ;O-~-..&12.11 12'1<1&2.t·#>057.0 2.00!>O.i1dl<1 I3Q1.0 ;'QII.2 1211 9 u1.0 ~051.0 2007 J.Q503 13Q7.0 &0&.5 1131&&.8 &057.0 lZ57708.1 (G;'''')($1000) 2"0~.2 35781.7 2&77.2 3~1&I.a 2505.0 319&3.9 23113;9·---·29907.7 Q3Q3.9 55 Q27.P ilO&G.Q '518&2.3 31\03.0 4B52&.1 3558.3 454~4.5 3329.4 42483.8 3115;3'"'3'1750.9 2914.9 37193.8 2727.4 3a801.~ 487265.2 (G"")(G';"I)($101J0)(51000)(UOOO) 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 63714.2 397.0 347.6 41.135.0 0.0 11&349.8 397.0 325.2 4149.7 0.0 139127.6 .397.~.._.."3011.3"'-'--'38 ~2.7--'--0.o-·--f 31036.-0- 397.0 2811;7.3&33.0 O.~15&874.9 785.0 '52&.8 6721.5 0.0 164629.1 7~5.C a9Z.9 6289~1 0.0 180045.6 785.~4&1.2,581111.5 0.0 1'792.05.7 785.0 1i31.5 5506.0 0.0 179369.7 7'35.0'"IlH.T -...5151.",-'-'25/13.0'"116707;9 785.0 377.8 4820.4 &&e9.Q 169&'50.6 785.~353.5 11510.3 71.135.2 159913.~ 511483.9 1&&b7.&181662 P .8 ••_••"__•••••__•••••••_-•__0 ._.__•__•__,.,__••_...;:__•~_---_._.-_...-'....._-----_._---~ Ul Z008 209&&.5307 PRESE~r ~DRT~aE~EFITS ( 1347.i O ....e79&.9 1&111327.7. 2/.199035./.1 .6057.0 .395~&.7 .504743.6_. 992008.9 H5.(\512&.&&5415.8 120399.7 107837.8 2319325.0 12450S~4 4135949.7 --CRF·=···-----O~O-&'1-8-;'"v·""'A"N.~·-9T~fFiTs·=----19·95&7:z--···------------····6-826q:l~-_···-·,--·-·-·-·--····--8288·:-2·'-~·i57(j";8-2·8IdI5·~· ....__._.._--~-,.---_...~-------_..._,~--_._~"-- 82118.284715 •1995&7.'68289. CAPAC (TV v'AlliE'~i'56 .58000!ii<-~.;YR-': _D~.~G·(..(.A..J.!!E._.,;_.].Z ..!.~O.QO'!Iu.s'~..!'!."!_.__'_ SECO~~4~'VALUE=12.76000~IlLS/~~H '''T::''lEST RATE ::0.0&875 ' 1 CAPACITY .ENERGY ..SECO~DAR'INTEREST. 1 1~&.58 12.7&12.76 0.06875_L.._._....___.__...._..._......__._,,_..._...__,..:_.__..__..__......_._...._ S'STE~OF DEVELOP~E~T .CAPAC IT'ENERG'SECONDARV TDTALS.~~PowERVALUES ~INTEREST IIIE,v SYSTE\4 T.~u YEAR CO"lSHhJCTIi.fij·'OELA,'"-.....-.... ._.\I.E~svs TEll --------_. ----------_.--- v,,:".E.ST"E'~T C~ST P~EllE"'T =-ESt.;\tT '4AIl~EU'3L.E PRESE'~T FIR"..A~...ETAaLE PHESE.'OT SECO,C'Al?'l' ."J~T .."A~~EU~LE ""J.<'JF C.tP.\ClTY I'l~~..(";T>4 ""IR"E"EI<G~SECO:.(l~;t·..(Sr;T~SEC E.·~E'lG'l' --~~-Y(A~--·F~Cn.f~-·-C'ADACIl'y -'C -'oIC I TYClE ..t.F HS'··-1.',ER(;'I'.....t."E ~GY -.."13f I,EF I ,"5"'t.'lli'iGY'.P.E ~G Y 6E"fFI T5 I·'fTER~P CAPA lTV TOTAL. BE~EFI 5'-'-'BENEFH's ~-_..-----...-._._--.-.-.---.•......-----_.-.. (""I (..,,)(HOOO)(G ...,,(:;.,..,(!toot))(G.....I (G.;")(51000)(S1000)($1000) 19~~I'.H57 27.0 25.3 55'i3.5 2<;91.0 2!101l.2 35781.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4137.5.2 1~~~O.~155 Z65.~·232.0 51~~1.!I 3055.0 2&77.2 3111&1.1I 391.0 l~7.&411]5.0 0.0 899&4.2 19~&0.'192 &AO.(1 ~~1.0 1?3332.0 30S~.~2595.(1 319&3.9 397.0 325.2 4l~9.7 0.0 15944&.1--'-;lcj"1--I)~"'&ilS-'--b'!!lf~G-·--~'21.2 1153 Q !I.Q ":'lOc;!\~u"-'-"23q3~9 _.2991)1.7-···--397.0·_·-l0li~3--3·ll8Z;7----0-.·0···-1·4·9i8qX l'n!!0.7112 9')0.0 ~ill.3 ISO!!"".!!&0'57.0 qll/l.9 55427.8 191.0 Z!l4.7 3&H.0 0.0 Z09909.0 .19H ~.b7H IOl5~(\",QIj.5 1'51773.3 &05'7.0 Ill'&l/.ll S11l62.3 785.0 5Z&.8 &7i!1.S0.0 2.12357.0 ZOOJ J.b27q 1!!31.9 ~72.q 171128.'5 bQ57.0 l~D3.0 Q852&.1 165.0 092.9 &269.1 0.0 225903.7 2001 0.S~1S 13~1.0 ~ql.J 11S20~.~bOS1.0 35S~.3 GSaOll.S 185.0 0&1.2 5~64.5 &5.0 22&S&Z.9zonz0.S~91.13~7.0 ~"O.~1659l~.&&G57.0 3329."4Z4~l.8 785.~t31.5 550~.0 10771.0.222&98.8----=--.----.~--..--.----.--"n 10589:."-'-"'·'-.-----.._"·'nC;SI9.3---··--..-..-_l10501.0--1083i";0·TS3711if&-.~- 0 •.0&88.AV A'4"l ltEllEFI1:5:o .2ll0215.9 ..... Ul.... 0- 2003 209Q 7.97&0 1307.0 PRESE~T.~D~T~~E~fFfT~ .C~F=. IO~411.S 2376933.7 6057.0 311119c;23.2 .. 1I831Q.2 &lb1l89.& 9920011.9 .. ...0828_9.1.__ 785.0 &261~&79A9ij.4·156299~7 3231&21.3 120399.7 167135.7 47&90&7.5~. 8288.2 ...11 505.5 3282.98.7 CAPACITY VALUE =221.ll1000S/~~.YR ENE'lGY ~lL.UE =12.1&Ol)0"-ILL.S/I<,,". SEcn~OA~Y VAL.UE:12.7&OOO~JLL.S/I(~~ I'HE~EST RATE :;0.0&875 ..-.-..---..-. _1__..._.__.._ CAPACITY E~ERGY SECONDARY INTEJREST .1 2".41 P,1~12.7&·0.06'!7':. -_.-.._-~_..~-._------~_._~--_.-~-_._.._--_.~._._.-_. SVSTE~OF DEVEL.DP~ENT'-"'1EIO SYSTEil ......-._.-._- APA INVESTMENT COST .'fEWSV sfE-"--· •.•....__._.....~.AF't.C ITXENEIlGVSECONOAR'(..TDT,AL.S •..••.PO.rt~~V_~WES ...'.J.~IE.RE~I _________________..,.._-.!:2z11~02!~.~_~?!~?~l!.32J!29~9:,t.____'_____'____'....:-__ _.:•.•••_-•••_---:•••_.•..;.,.;.•.._.•••-.,...-:--•..,....._--':""._'••_•••.."-r--'.•••.•-_.",'••_.'_.•.'._-_.••._.._-_...",,_--":....---------'--_.-.._.._._._--_.._,- ;•••_'--._-._••'M •.:.._._••.:..-.._......,••••••..:...J..••• 1: ,.--------'---~------ :~ '_'M'••.•__,•__,••__••••._•••,_._....,•••__ ...._.-_....,-,..-.,_..•_..__.,-.----_.-.-.. ..-'._......-.._--.-"--.__._._..-.._....,._._-----.--,-_.---_..-----_.- ---'--'-'---'.-._-._---.._----- ..~ APA :~.EST~E.T COST A~O 2~ESCALATID~A~D 3%INFLATI0~ P'lESE'H F~ESE'H ~A~~ETA~LE P~SE~T F.IR'""AilI(ETA!.lv PRESE'jf sEca~·DAqy I'iTEIlRlJP ~)qT~~A'l~E'A~L!",'",...aF CAPAC TTy F 1';.1 ,'OJ;~FIll'!E~,EIIGY SF.:CO·j::l~T_"OJiT-l SEC E,.EIIGY C&PACITy TOUL ----v-f:.-~--·FhC·T').:i··C""ACITY'-C·,,~c I ,'y--'-~f ,~'t'F ITS .-. E ··!:"GY t:EQGY'-'tlEi,E FIT 5 E"t:""\;Y t.:'.:E,';::;V ~E '.fF r TS-E1f'IEFtTS --et'.EFfr"s-----_..._._..._-_....---.......-.-.........-...__.---.......-.-.._..-_....-........-----------_....-_...-.. (....)(".~).("Il n OO)(l;.....)C;"H)(stOOO)«(;",..)(17 ••'1)($1000)(~1000)UI000) 199'l 1).~'57 27.\1 2S.3 ·!>231.Q 2QQ7.0 28('''.2 &6002.1 ·3.0 0.0 0.0 \0.0.711234.0 I'H5 l).b155 205.0 232.0 ';723<:'.';3058.0 2':>77.2 01.1922.8 3'H.0 3117 •.~81128.5 \0.0 130581.8_._--19~b.__.-.0.5192 ..~O.O ::':;7.0 137 (I,).;•e ---305<1.0 2'505.0 0074b.1I 3~7.0 325.2 7t\/lb.3 0'.0 2060111.5 19~1 0.1ob5 -..--b80~'n---'-521.2 12!'''b<i~b 30511;0 23tH.cj --56638~8'-----3 11 7.C ----3011-.'3-.-.-.7319.0 -··----O~O".19i!7!37 ;'4- 1 9'~~0.7172 950.0 ,,"1.3 1080bl,l."60'57.0 43113.Q 1""'338.9 197.C l~4.7 6'1011.3 0.0 281)308.1 19'H 0.b71/)1035.0 '11,1.,:>.171323.7 b(ls"7.~~06C1.4 98':>1>2.7 7es.o 52b.!!12773.9 0.0 282bbO.4 i!O.o,t'0.b279 lint.O 72.~IQ065q.~bO!l7.0 H03.0 92222.11 7~';.0 1192.9 119':12.2 0.0 29118311.11 20Dl 0.5875 1511.0 'l1 .3 1952'05.1.0 0 57.0 35511.3 tlb290.0 785.0 1I&1.2 11183.1I 72.5 292751.5 _~_-:_~~~_~.?~91__.1J.~~___'~Q .11 182b l ll\.6 "057.0 3329.11 80739.·1 785.0 1111.5.10110 11 .0 12000.5 285852.0 --1237343-.-5"-~---------.-------·7t:3o!i3~i--·-·----..---..----..-------7b971.b '---'12072.8 ,2040051.0- UI olio ~ 2003 -_·_..to·~r·--7;-9r!i6-.--t·311't".o--Tti7iitf;·s ..z65-0ifll·j).-i}----..·6osi.·o-·---483"14.2-ffH6?O.-I-----rt\·5-.-o-----·b-Z"bT.-b-PH8"11'"4-.-4 'Ti4j)-e;!Ciiiiiii"01l9;ii- "~ESE~T ~JRT"IiE'IEfIIS __5887190.0......lsa5283.3_22881b.l 18b211.2.&j88100.& .CRF=.0.0&8t\..AV _~",,,,.~.EI:EfJTS =267632.2 __._........12 9 781.3 .....-....15751.5.'12818.&1125983.7 -•.._--.-,'._~_._._._.:.._._._..:.-._.~~':.~,~..•..--., eAPACITY ENERGY SECOr,jDARY_TOTALS·~~POWER VALUES.&lNTERESTSYSTE~JF OEVELQP~ENT .. 'IE;~SYSTE'~.-------..-....- _..~,.~_Jl~~.~T'i~~~OST AN !L.?UJI cA!..A..!lQ!:LA.r-.o .3Lt!.'l£LAT I_Q..~.Z.~7b3_2_"--!1~J,jJ_._J5.!5.2.~_.!!1..?,j_Q.!!.. 'lEi'/SYSTE., CAPACITY VALUE 24b.b~OOO$/~N·YR ~~E"GY VALuE 2~.25000~JLLS/~~~ SECU'DA~Y VALUE 211.2s0I)O~ILLS/<~~ I~TEREST ~ATE.0.Ob875 ...1 ~_....____ CAPACITY E~ERGY SF.CO~DARY Ir,jTEREST . 1 .2110.&8 211.25..211.25 0.Ob87~ \ ;", ._--------- JIL ~lREO ALTERN4TI~E ----YE-4~ PQ~SE'lT .1~T~~A~'~T4ML~ l'"'AtT ,):f"''c VAC T TY ~'E5E~T ~4~~ET~9LE PR~SE~r ~~.r~JI'"CAPAC ITT 'I'"IR~~C~TH FIQ~ C;"~CITY-''!F..'.~f['s (,.(riGV 'f"E;,GY'- FIR"~AIlICt::TA5LE (~t::RGV SECO~JAR' ~E·.H[TS t...t::~GY PRESE~r SECO~DARV l~TER~~P NORr ..SEC t~ER~Y CAoA:ITY TDTAL [\!;3:;,dE',HITS'llt"EFliS---&E:.EUTS---........---.-._--.--_..-.-.-.-.....•....._.-.....-.-.-.--.-._....... . ("~) 19~~-0.91S7 21.0 19~5·O.'H55 '2115.0 1~9~~.'lq2 ~~O~O -·-·-T'f~i----O~7~&S---·-b50 '-0--- 1996,0.7172 ~5n.0. 199~?bl10 I035~0 2000 0.,?79 1231.0 20010.5875 1307 •.(1 ___.~~?__0_'-5a9L !.H~__ ('".,)(HOOC)(t......)(:;"H)($1000)(G ....)(G ....) 25.3 111~.32oq7.0'28GU.2 75~~9.3 0.0 0.0 ~32.0 In!9&.~30S~.0 2617.2 72071.0 3 9 7.0 3~7.6 ~~7.~2u~~I.~305~.n 2S05.0 b7~3~.e 3~7.0 325.2 ~.21'.2'"'2290i..7-'30S8.0··---·23a3.9 ,,3(19/>.9 ----3H.O--------·3~~.3 ~~I.j 299~3.5 ~057.0 ~3a3 ••11&937.0 3Q7.0 284.7 9~.5·30S2_.1 ~OS7.C ~O&~.u 109al~.7 7S5.o ~2b.6 12.9 339&9.1&057.0.380).0 102316.a 7~5.0 aq2~9 ~I.~3~770.~b051.n 3S58.3 95790.8 7!5.0 a61.2 ~O.a 32501..6057.0 J329.~89628.~7~5.G 431.5 -------2tO~52~b-·-·----.-.-.-----.·--·--79223q·~7----·-..------.-.-.----. (ll000)(S1000)(SIOOO) Q.O 0.0 7&599.7 9156.S 0.0 9162~.0 875a.6 0.0 100671.0 ~fqf.5 ------.0.0 .-'-9iif'f5~T- 7&&".5 0.0 15~545.0 1~180.Q 0.0 154119.2 13268.2 0.0 109613.7 li~I~~7 12.9 1~2997.4 11616.1 213~.O 135924.7 8sa46·.u --"-2151~ci'--1100i89~j- 10744.5 a72219.& _&92672.2_. 2003 2090 7.9~66 .1347.0 P"lESE·jf .~JRTH liE'jEi:lTS..._~_._._... _________17 1l !!5.8._2283.8__211523.•3. til ". 00 CRF=0.06~8 AV A~~R~~EFIT.=lI768.5.0 6057.0 48314.2 1300619.i 20926SJj .8_. .1.4407.0 ..1 _ 785.0 6261.6 168563.0 25a009." 31025.61972427~3 33176~5307271b.9 ...~.,_.,~,_.~,._--_..--'..•---~-_.- C~PACI.TY ENERGY SECONDARY TQTALS-~~-,"OWE~V.•.\.UES .....INJ:E~f;H _-'--_-'---"-41Jt.U.....11!.9.!l.7.1&-...11.9&~•._Ul..!iZ.h_._ CAPACITY VALliE =43.95000 /I<N-YR E~E~GY ,ALJl=26.92000 ILLS/I(~~ S£CJ~OA~Y VALUE=26.92000 ILLS/I(~~ INTEREST RATE =O.0687S .... _1 .•_.__.__~.__'._..._.__.__..._..==_--~--~---- CAPACITY ENE~GY SECO~DARY I~rE~EST 1 .03.95·26.92_2&.92 D.Q6875 SYSTE~DF DEVELOPMENT'lEIj SUTE"...----.-------- _l:)_Ij,._~L't~[l._AL T.~..'!ATHL- ..E.,SYSTE14 ._....._ - ____.._ _...·_0__'.-.·•.•_ _ ,~_ .._--_.._.-.~_....'..__.....__...__._----..-.._._._'_...._•.._._,._..._.- "•.;'~·.'~..,d,~,~ ft'T~.''LO~E •OIL. (~.,) IQqU 0.9357 ~27.0 11q5 0.~755 2b5.0 191&0.~192 &~O.O----i-QQ-7----o.fi.-bS---b-!.0-;O---- DfH::SE'.T "'JQT~"A~~ETA9LE ----YEA,;---"ACW"·---C-''''"cJT' ~~::SEI\T ..'r"C'~ C:':CITv (...) 25.3 232.0 ;,;;7.0 521.2 ~AP~ETAHLE P~E5E~T Fl;;"!"AR!(ETA~E P~E5E~T SECO~DARY hTERRUP CA;>AC [TV FIR"--lliJl:T~FIQ~E'.EQGY 5~CO'IC -'1'...O'lr-t 5E::E~~":;Y C":>ACITY TOUL "['ifF ITS E"ERGY E~E~GY 5E',!:F"I TS l:.'iEi>uy I:.i'iEq~y 9~..E:F"I TS BE'IEFI TS--lfE'4EFTiS-.-.---.-......".-.-.-.-.-.-.-..----------.-._.....--.-............-........ (HOllO)(Ii,.;rl)(GMf)('1000)(Go\rl)(G,,")(1000)CSIOOO)(stOOO) II 1I).3 29'17.0 2!/Iu.2 75"6Q~J o•.,0./1 0.0 0.0 71>599.7 1019c.S 3056.0 2&77.2 721171.0 3 cH.0 31&7.0 935&.5 0.0 911>24.0 211Uj\I.e 305a.O 2505.0 b7"3<l.1OI _0 •• 3 Q7.0 325'.'2 8754.0 18.0 1001>89.0 ,2291)&.7 305'l~0 23 11 3.9;-b309h.9 397.'0 30'1.3 8191.5 1291>.9 951192.0 58095.2 Z76G92.o.21>302.0 131 11.9 3&111104.7 ___________•.~__._.__4 .~ 1883l.5 1386027.5 201117.11 1751032.1 1380.9 120539.69998.9 111'19117.1 .11152119.1> IlOl!.';397.0 82215.b 311035.0 91&2Z2.0 \t94311l.1 3058.03321>25.8 391321.0 lI>938.l·0.0&88 AVA~~BE'4EFI1S =CIlF= --'--llrQ~------~---.-.~---. 20q~11.1298 b'lU.O 7~1>8.3 PRESE~T 1l0QTH ijENEFITS ._-----_._------_._---j-_.-. UI.c. 0() CAPACITY VALUE =43.95~~O~/KN.Y~ E~ERGY ~ALUE =20.92000~ILLS/K~~ SECIl'j()4~Y ~ALUE=?0.920I)OY,ILLS/K ...~ ~_E~J.E RE S_t5!:tE ;__0_..l!.~.~.u ..._ 1 CAP~CITY E~EQGY SEC1,DARY I~lEqEST \H.95 lo.92 26.92 0.00875 1.__...._._ SYSTE~JF OEYELQPMENT ·'IEw SVSTE'-l-~~A-TA:~A -A"Lu'-N-E-.-!J.,-l-L---'-----'-------- ~EW SYSTE"_ CAPACITY ENERGY SECO~DA~Y TOTALS···POWER VALUES &INTEREST ----------.---------20-938;"---8-221b.---99-ii-q;-i"2-0511 O. _.•0·,__."..0._•.•••,••••••_.•• --_.____._.--_..._-_.._.--.__._------_.. .__.--..•--_..,-"..---_.___._- ----_.....,-----._---_.---------------- _._-----,.._---,._--._._-_._._---.__...~..-'-.._..__.-._..._-_._.-.'_._---_..._-~....__.__..__._---"._-----._.- 8ASE :\S~ftlT~3%I~FLATION PQESf"jf AJ~r~¥AR(Er4'~E ,---yEA-~--F..CTO;C--t4PA::ITY P~~SE~T ~AQ~Er~~LE ~RESE'T FIQ~¥AR~ETA~LE P~ESE'T SECO~DARY I~'ERq~~ ~r_-~OF ~APACIT,FI~~~~~T~FIR¥E~EPGY S~CO~~AR'ftu~r~~EC E~E~GY CAPACITY TOTAL C4-':ITY"E."'E.FITS i::-"Ei<GY'E\ENGY''--6£,~EFITS E.~.Eo(G'-·--·E'.t:'iGy iiE';HIfS·-9E'II::FITS--Sl;.EFIfs.-.._-..•.............-....---_..__......---...._..-.-...-.....-•.......--......---_.-...._......---_... (".'0)(-.)Ul0('0)(G,,'l)(Go,,)($1<)00)(Gil")(G""i)('1000)(51000)(510aO) 19~~(l.~357 27.0 ~5.3 52~~.7 2Q97.0 2900.2 q73~3.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 52611.8 19~5 0.~755 2b5.0 ?~2.0 q~200.9 3056.02677.2 q5218.0 397.0 3~7.6 5870.4 0.0 99289.7 t99b (l.~192 ~60.0 ~,'.0 115729.1 305h.0 2505.0 42309.b 397.0 325.2 5092.8 ,0.0 Ib3531.0 ----I qli7--0-~1'->b-5----6-'6.-0----::,;1.c!--i o!!Z13<i •..,--'-3I)o;6~-0----23<i ~~-9-----3956 t ~-q-------397 ;0-----3-0"-'-3 -----5n9~·4----0 ~-01530Ti;"9 19qD 0.7172 950.0 t'I.3 Iq15q6.4 b057.0 0343.9 73366.0 397.0 264.7 4601.8 0.0 219725.2 19H 0.,->710 lO'\5.0 ,.'''.5 100293.1 b057.040h4.4 b8bU8.0 78';.0 52&.688:<17.0 0.0 221836.5 20JP ~~.bi7q 1231.~77i.q !b057~.~&~~7.0 3~03.0 64232.4 7135.C ,4q2.9 ~324.7 0.0 233135.5 2001 6.5~7~13u7.G il1.3 Ib4Uo7.!'&057.0'3';S6.3 60100.S 765.0 4bl.2 7789.2 61.0 232357.8 .!OOZ O.S~cH 1307.0 ,7.0.u 1';3831.2 bo57.0 332<1.4 5&230.4 76-5.0 03t.5 72813.1 10lGb.9 227460.6---.---------.--~-.,--------------Touifzl.r -------------------jf970b"2;7-----·------------53b,-<)~-3--IOI6!l.(j--ib02jf6-i;r UI UIo 2003 -----·-20'l~----7;(1766----n4t;6---Tc7'lii~_S_--22322"'7T~r-&o!)'i-;o-----4il3rlj-.[-ni>n2i~"4--n5;(I--62-6T;6-10S''7iSe;-Cf-nib-b-IJl";fJro-o17!.T" PilESE'H h')I<T ..BEI,EFITS 3274]<13.0 1313090.1 15931>9.2 15b831.74<103b811.0 __.0.97.0.8 __________-'---_1_0_7_9_6Y!_H 7565::_ __.~9_039,2.!L...__.____ __225/l 11 <!.5._CRF=0.0688 AV AN'l_BE'IIEFP_S = ••••__•••__•._..._••_••••.-__••.._••,_.,'"......0 __._•••-._••__•__.•_ CA?ACITY V.L~E 207.76000f./(1-YR E~ERGY VALUE 16.89000~ILLS/K~H SECU~~A~V VALUE 1,->.d9000~ILLS/~fiH -INTEREST RATE -G.06875 -,--.------ 1 -CAPACfi'-''--E""~~GY--SECO'lDARY It.lTE"1EST t 2~7.7b 1".R9 I/),R<I.~.Ob1l75 ..._.__'_._ ,SYSTE"1 OF DEVELOP~V(L .-----------------_ >fEll!SYSTE"! ,--.!!!.5.LG.A.S;....!!U!Ll,LI.!if.h.nI o.~'--_~..,.-,--_ ~E ...SYSTE"1 __CAf>AC;II'!'ENERGY SECONDARL_r_oIAI,.S-~..POl'4ER V_AL_\lES '_I_III rEREsI 2l5/l.().~.q.z..L-lOq7lo._-ll1~_ ----,._,._.-.-,--'---''''_.__..-._-.._--.-...,...-----_._---'",.._-_. ._----_.-._..._....---._----•....__. h-......._.._.._..---_._--_.._.._--------.-.-_.._.._._..-.._...,-..._.,...,.___..__.._._·_4_··_··_.._.___.__.. ·.·;·..;';'.'i~ I BASE :'SE -IT"5l l~FLATIO~ PQES(~T P~:!E T~~AR~ETAaLE PRESENT FIQM ~AQKETABLE hJ~T~wAQ~ETA~LE ~,.-~F CAPACITY Flp~~OQT~FjQ~E~(PG'SECO~0Ac, -----yE-':i --F ACTOl;-'-tip.\C"1 ,,--'cA""C I Y-·"'E '.f.F"nS'-EI.ERGY -.E"ERGY'"-!'IE-,En 15 EI.t.;;l,;1 -. P~ESE~T SEC3~DARY ~ORT~SEC E~E~r,y ENfQ~Y BE~tFITS I\lTE~QJP C4 P 4ClfY TOTAL BE liE FIT S "--13E ',E,,'fnr.-.-------.-...-.-_.....--...----_.._------.__.-._._-_.------_.---------~....-.._._-._..._...._..-...._- (""') '19'l~O.H';7 27.0 1995 0.A755 205.0 19'1b 0."'1'12 0/10.0 19'17--'0.7605 6"0.0 19'1~0.7172 9';0.0 19qq 0.&71.)1035.0 200~.0.b279 1231.0 2001 ..0.SIl 75 13'17 .•0 2002 0.50197 '1347.0 (.,)(S!(lOl)(10 ...1'1)«(;hH)('1000)(10 .....)(G"Jo1)($1000)(Uf)I)/)(S1000) 25.3 5715.3 2997.0 2904.2 5702&.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 03339.8 ?j2.o 52407.5 3058.0 2b77.2 55017.0 397.)347.6 7142.5 0.0 114627.0 ~~7.0 125972.9 305~.0 2505.0 Si477.9 397.0 325.2 6&~3.0 0.0 184133.8 "21.2 1171!&9.~30<;9.0 -2343.9 4816b~5·-·--3cH.J-----31)1.-.-3---b2·B;C------0~0-·172289;o_ ~Ml.3 154077.0 b057.0 4343.9 e92bb.b 397.)26~.7 5950.9 0.0 249195.1 ft~~.5 1~700S~3 &057~0 aO&4~~83524.3 7!5.D 5i6~5 10824.9 0.0 2~1414.5 772.9 174792.1 &057.0 3~03.0 751S1.Q 7~5.'a92.9 10128.b 0.0 263072.0 7"'.3 '1189<;9.7 0057.0 -SS58.3 73124.1 785.~4&1.2 9477.0 b&.ll 2&1027.2 7JO.4 107~47rb &057.0 3329.a b8Q20.2 7~5.~431.5 '~b7..11001.&2<;573&.8-.---.----....--------..-...----tn436S~T---·_··--------------·-1I01l7T4_;3------·__r--..--bS227;5'-·-'110"!!".0 1815'Q35";r CRF.=....0.P&88 AV 4"'~.IlE;\iEFITS =_.295358 •.5_..__._ 755.0Ul Ul-2003 209".7.91~b'13Q7.0 P~ESEIH N3QTH BEIIIEF I.U! 10744.5 2Q298&2.5 3564227.5 b057.0 48314.2 9925S7.5 1597&31 .•8._. __1 0_997.~.7 _.__.__. 62&1.&J28676.4 1596Q~~8 37110112.2 193903.9 170713.6 552&477.3 133.48.2 ..11751 •.8 3801138.1. '.1 .__.-_..-------_.":--.--_...-...-.....-..._---_.._-...--~.-_._--_.--_.---_. C4PACITJ V4LUE 22b.15000$/K~.YR E~ERGY VALUE 20.55000~ILLS/K~H SECO~04~Y VALUE 20.55000~ILLS/K~H INTEREST R4TE 0.06675'- . .1...~.. . ._ CAPACITY t.NERGY SECONDARY INTE~EST I 22&.15 20.55._..20.55 Ill.0.&875 .,_._.0 ......_.."....__....__.._.__...,..0 _.". -"._.-_.,...._..__.-...._"--_.._- SYSTEM OF OHELOP'lENT...CAPACITY ENERGY SECONDAQX _TOI.AL~···eOWER VAt.UES_~_J~JE_R~S.l ~Ew SYSTE~'...----.-.--------------.--.------.--.----------.------...---_........- .--.'. ...~ ._~~g_.~~A.SL!I!..P!2.~INFLAtION 2453~.!h_l099_~Q.._l__~_~.._Jlt0Il35J,_ ''4Ei'!S'fS TEll ..-----_.._-_.._.._.._---------_...•--._.- -.'_.-._._-...."---'--.._-_.--_....-...~---_..-.._.~.._....._._.....-....-._.._._'-...__.._..-..._._-._. " ..-_..--,---------,-,-------..-_.__._--_._------------------_.._-,_..__.--~-_.._---_._..,_.__._-",,-,_..•_-_..._-,-_._."- "8'5c-CAn~21 ESCALATION ...---.-.._-----~----_.._...._---_..-..._.------_..-.._.-_._. PRESENT PRESE~T MARKETABLE PRESENT "OkTH-"rAHKETA8LE-wOIHH 01'CAPACITY I'IQM "ORr"1'11111 YEAR FACTOR CAPACITY CAPACITY BE~tFITS ENERGV ENERGY FIR"MARKETABLE E~ERGV SECONOARY BE~IEFITS ENERGY----------- PR~~ENT SECONDARV "ORTH S~C ~~fRGY ENERGV BENEFITS II'HERRUF CAPACITY 5EIliEFITS---- TorAL Bfll;EF iTS " " (Mi't)(foI\l)(S1000)(G ..H)·lr,\'IIo')(SIOOO)lG;o,H)lGw'lH)($1000)Ul000)(SIOO~) 19lf4:--1f.~3'S1----27.0~----~5:)--4734.&-----2'1'17 :O----2&04:c--5Cl&45.b------0.0 ----U.O ----0.0------0.0 &103/1;,.1 1'l95 0.8755 265.0 232.0 43479.7 3058.0 2&77.2 56'144.&3Cl7.0 -347.&73'12.7 O.i)107il17.1 ,,---;194';---O:f.l'12 ----&80."----557 •.0 ---iOIl3'13.5----3056:-0 ---C505.'P-----5328l".S------3Q7.1i -----)25.2 ---&'117 .2------0.0 1 &.G5'l2.2 1'1'17 0.7&b5 680.0 521.2 '17&7&.1 3058.0 2343.9 4'1854.1 397.0 304.3 6472.2 0.0 154UOa •• "19'18 n.7172 950.0 &81.3-----:rc7b1J-3.8 6051.0 434.3.9 923'14.1 3'l1.o 284.1 6055.'1 0.O---C?26133.S-~- _l'1Cl9 0.6710 1035.0 6Cl4.5 130159.&6057.0 40~4.4 8&450.7 78S.0 52&.8 11204.2 0.0 227814.5 "---200If----():&27.9-:---12'31-:-0 ---'17 2:'l---1448I1Cl.o--'--60S'-'-O---3a"ll3 ~if----80889.5-----·785.0----------4'12".Q---10483.5 ---O.C'23&??~.8 ~2001 0.~875 13117.0 7ClI.3 148303.5 6057.0 3558.3 7~&8&.1 78~.0 G~1.2 Q809.1 55.0 ~33e5~.7 "2002 0.5497 1347.0 74u.4 13&1&3.5 6057.0 ---3329.11-70817.4 --185.0 -431:5 Cl118.1 911.7.0 22787~.'l 94004&.0 &25963.5·&7512.8 917"2.·0 1642t>c;4.G .. " " UI UI ~ ::<l--------2l1(l3 - •209~7.97bb 1347.0 ~Rrrrnl<'rFitlt:NFFTTS--- 107411.5 2013&21.6 6057.0 48314.2 10i7643.1 -185.0 6261.&133184.8 132298.1 330~74~.3 2Q53667.6·i653601.3 2006QI.6 14!ll"TU"";rZlll4Q4112.r;-- CRF=0.0688 AV ANN BENEFITS =203328.0 113833.0 -13il1s:Q Q738.7 34071~.~ --·----CiPACfT-'j""ENERGTSEctiNOARY INiERRUPTAbLrroi ALS 203328.li3833;--13al&.----(j73q-.------------31i07T&-~·· CAPACITY ENERGY SECONDARY INTEREST "1 11l7.41 21.27 21.27 0.06875 -------- \..1)__1__.......,...;'-...,.._.....'.._ g SYSTE~OF UEVELDPMENT ,,_NEW_S_!.~.T_~_.____ ~BASE CASE WITH 2%ESCALATION "NEw SVS':'EM ~ ~-----------------~------------ 10,,----_....--------._--..,-----,----------,---_.._.__._-----._--------_._-.._-----_..-----_._.. ",,--------~-------------'--------------------------------------------'------_... n----·-· II ---------..-··---···-T· n·-·-----·--·--·---·-------·,···-----·---------~-·--·----------.-------.---.---.-..-.----------,--.--. 10 ------------_. )i;'..,~:,~~c.'..._r,::,~,,;"_£~.'l:"~;~;~,il';;.Lii>;tlimiUM~a;;;ii~iilf1.ii.lh';~4'.i§iF;~'.f;'4~~;f4We'(i'0;:('"'1".;/;wN±r,";'@wiYW;'if8:·;-:trWexhSift"-",timertttl "-'-~--"'~_---""'.'.:,..c-r=-.'". . _ ---_.-'-'._'--.........._--_._-..-.._...---_.- 8ASE CASE WITk 2%ESCAIoAf ION AND 31 n,FLA Tllm- ----_._-.__.-_...._,-_.-----_.-..,--._--_.- r~iA._ FtJ ~FlTS (<;1 'j I;~) ~41~~~.O 1 ~iI 0;~'J •Ii 1"1'>37\).1 le!7'!.,.i 27~2t\S.(, 27(Jq(~Le •.7 ;."=';;;';'-'0.7 tf.I~'f t ..I.J .'3 27IJ~e." 1'17Q4~I.Q PRESENT PRESE~T ~ARKETABIoEPRESENT FIR~MARKETAPIo€PRESENT SECO~DA~y I~TERRU~ -'-wD~Trt'··iURi(EfABL:E"-··ilOpfHOF CApiCtT'r-FlpMilORTH FIR"Efo;E,cGY ·seCONDAPY.ioORTH'SEC ENEIlGY'"CAPACtTY YEAR nCTO~·CAPAClTY CAPACITY BENEFITS ENE~'G.y ENERGYB~~EF'ITS ENERGY .ENERGY 6H'EF!!~._~!tE!.n!'------------.---.----.--_.------...._-------------------- --------------.------------------.----.--(:.l~)(~f\\)(SlOOO)(GwH)(G\';")(SI00U)(G....)ti;~",)(51110U)(SI00',» lClClIj-"·--O.9357--'--·-·21.6 -..25.3 5273.4'-"2,.'H.o-·2604.2 7'135'1.2 ..V.·ll 0.0 o.if o.n _1'1'15 0.8755 2&5.0 232.0'48426.3 3058.0 2&77.2 7~7&5.5 3'17.0 347.&'1&3b.l 0.0 --._-.--1996·:--0-.6192-·--·1080.0'-557.0 116275.0 3058.0'"2505.0 708 th.t·--3'17.0 325.2''1203.4 0.11 .'1'197 .0.7&"5 bIlO.O,5'<'1.21087'15.3 3058.0 2343.'1 66331.4 31l7.0 304.3 86t1.4 0.0 1998 O.7172 1150.0 ti1lr:T11jC!21b~lP57.0 43l1T;1J-f2.2'Hf·.6 3,.7 .Oll!1l~-'lO~7;q-.-...--\l.v lCj'l'l 0.1>710 1035.0 &1l4.5 U'l'171.·7 &057~0 '10&4.4 11':0?3 ..7 7 A5.0 5<'&.6 111'107.3 Q.IJ "2UOO 0~&279 1231.0 .772.9 IbI335.~b057.0··3B03.0 107b2q~~.7AS~O.4'12~Cj 131l1l1.4 o.n 'i!OOI 0.~l\75 134'7.0 7'11.3 1&511.'i!.&&057.0 351;11.3 lU('701.3'HI~.O 1I&1.,!13u';I.1 61.3 '200~O.54'l7"-·134T.O··--·740~4 15455b.8"·"6057.0 ---.'33?Q.4 Q4223.4 ""7115 ..0 431.5 12211.6 IOISII.e ___--'-~."_'_1::..:0:...1I:_7037.0 8~~.!~2.3 ...~~..2_b_._7__...1021 'j.q ..--_....._._._._-_._---"-_...-_.----_...,----------•..__.,---_._-------_..._-_...• Ul Ul Co) 2003---' 20'111 7.'17b& PRESENT"~ORTH ~ENEFITS 1347.0 10744.5 2242801.2 32119836.2 &057.0 48314.2 13&72'12.8 .22001A5.1 785.0 62(,1.&,;H7204.0 2b7030.7 1473'j5.~3q34n~3.o 1~7571.~SqI4~b~.~ CRF:O~0&8-8--4'"-ANNBE(ijEFTfS=--'''''2-i&lIb9~7 1511.-5-&:'2----··-------·-·-··'i:8382~2 10e1l7.1 ",,71 ~.,.? C~PACITY VALUE :208~74000S/KW-YR ENEPGY.VALUE =28.3000IlMllolS/I<\'iH -'SECOND ARy'iiiiJjE:'-'28 ~30iloOMiIoLSiK'WH'---'- !NTEREST RATE =0.0&875 1 ---._._----_..._---'-._---_._----_.-"------'--.--_.._-_._...._-_. CAPACITy ENERGY SECONDARY'IrITERESi-T;;-:;;;--__-'---:--_--'---'_-:--~- 1 208.74 28.30 28.3~0.0&875 1---s·ys·tEIi·tji=·-OEi,iElilp;.;EN'f--~---..-----·----·---------·--------------CA·PAfi'TY·fNEi'<GY·SECoNDArf·(-XNTER·RiipTABlF.TOTALS NE"SySTEM .BASE-EA·~fE-WlTH-2i ESC ALA HON AND 3:11 INFlA HON 226-470~r4S~T8382·.-Toijlrr:----...407155. NEw SYSTEM . ----_.-----..._.._--_....._----_._--._.----_.-._.----._--_._--------......---_._---_.__._..---_.-."-,._-,.._-_.__.-_-.'.__. --_..._-_...._-------_.------------_..._..-------------_.--_..-._.._--.-,"--,"._-,._--- ___---0'''-'---'----..__.__..",_.....__..__.,. .__.,._.__....._........"_.-.....,.'--_."...._...._._..__.... ~----~--------------------------------------------_..._.._._. ._-_._----_.._._...._~..__..- BASE CASE wITH 2 X ESCALATIO~AND 51 INfLATION INTERRI:P CAPACITy TI"l AL BENEFITS eE~~FITS --'-------------------------~--------------~ PRESENT PRESENT MARKETABLE PRESENT FI~~MARKETABLE PRESENT SECONOARY wO~TH M~~~ETA~LE WOkTh OF CAPActrf FIRM wORTH FJ~~'ENE~GY ·sECDNQARY ftORT~SEC E~EPGY .YEAIi FAC TOR CAPAC ITY CAPAC ITY SENfF ITS ENEQGY.,.ENERGy 8ENEF t~~~E:RG!_~~~~~~!F ITS-------- -----------_.._--------------------------------------------------------- -------- ---------------- O~\'I)0·111)(51060)(G~,H)(Gw"')(S100U)(Gil"')(Gil"')(SnOO)($1000)(Sl "00) fCf·Hi---··()-:'93~;r·--'i!7·.O·--·-25~3-'-5747.4 ---2~C17.0"-'2lioil~C!""9&745.3 .-.---.0.0-'-"-0 '-0'-......,j.O··-·-..-0.0 1 ':?"~2.1> 1995 0.8755 265.0 232.0 527~0.7 3058.0 2&77.2 923&4.3 397.0 347.b 11991.1 0.0 157:~~.1 ----t99El··--·0.819i!_.El80.0·-~·-'·S57.0-12El724.9 3058.0-'"2505.0 8&1122.8 ...397.0 ·--)i!5.2"'11219.7 -...'.1.0 22>l3d ... _~9970.7&~5 &80.0 521.2 118573.0 305d.0 2343.9 en&63.4 ,397.0 304.3 101198.0 0.0 2Uq~3>l.1I 1,,<18 0.7172 '150.0 &81.3 15il<)Cl7.4 6ii'iT:o 4343.'1 14'1ii63.b3qt:"~6'·11.7 '1622.7 ·Ci·~o-3i4b83.b 1~99 0.&710 10~5.0 &911~5 1580U2.9 b057.0 40&4.4 1110223.2 785.0 52b.8 18173.2 0.0 !16!CQ.l --20.00 - --O.&27'l '-1231.0-'-'-77 2.-q-:--175~35.5--':1>057.0---'3603.O'B 1203.0 '~-1 il5.b'-.....Qlli!.9-17u04.2 11.0 3<'''''''2.7 20'01 0.5875 1347.0 7'11.3 Ui01l28.0 6057.0 3558.31227&3.0 :785.0 4&1.2 15910.3 1:>1:>.8 ~1671-r..2 :1002 .'0.'51197 1347,.0 7110.11 1'0811'17.2 bU57.1l 332".4 11466&.0 '71'5.0 .431.5'1"68b."11ll,,7.2 3uQ""7.3 11 11113&."1 III S31.~.1 09.~0~~__!.lX!4.1 2;>71 v'1 1.1- UI UI ~ '2003 ?O1l4 7.q7~6 1$47.0 107114.'3 24443&7.& ..PRESENT WORTH BENFFITS ......------·-·~5ii'5S(l'4:4 60'37.0 118314.2 1&&&841.0 78S.0 &2&1.&21602&.1 I&QS4~~~4"87~~3.5 i!68'2"fS'S.6 325532.1 J7IT3;>;·B-67&1l'1;>'5.u CI.t.o.o~n"A~ANN ~kNL'tT'B i!4"II"J.~10"&37.11 i!;>""'1.4 11~~·••q qL~fl~l.H CAPACITY VALUE = ENERGY VALUr - ~H CllNIlAIlY VALllr.- INlfl'l :.T Ij~H :: 1 227.50000"S,·KW-YR 311.~OOOOMJLLS/KWH J4.SUOOOMILLS/KWH 11.(11)117" '-~.-'.-"-'.._--. CAPACITY ENERGY SECONDARY INTE~lS~T~~~_~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~_~~~~~~~~_~__~~_. 1 227.50 311.50 311.50 0~OEl875 CAPAciTrENEifGYSECO~DARY'lNTERRUPTABLE--tOTALS '---~~-----~21i6823.-18463r.-·2~-41i~il2~------"i'-65&'12.·· 1'-sys:,'e;;i "OF OEVELO"MEfif--·---·----..-----.-.-----.-, NEw SYSTEM -BASCc-A·SC~nH-2--xE-5CALATiON AND 5xiNFLATloN NEw SYSTEM .---------.._----"-. -------_._.__._-__.----"--'-'". ~>"..;~.';:"""L".i.i:~':'''",,ii;;j;:::'';;J;,;~~ili~ QIL F~~ED ~ITH 3'-I~FLATIJ~ PNESE IT-P"~S~"T "ARKEU6LEP,"ESEOIT FIPU _"'AR!\~TAt'LE pqESE\lT 5ECJ~f)a.RY I ..TEll;lu P 'PT'""!AIl'<£T.A:OLE ,,::~.'.,C)~CAPACITY FIll'!-"'O~T"_FII('"E"EIlr,y SECO'd)A~Y h01'T-I SEC EfiERGY C'''ACHY TOTAL ----YTA~--·F.\CTjP.-·--CAP4CiTY--CAP:-cnY --&E,'<EF IT~f --E'<E~GY-. -e'-"lfRGY-----BE-,EF r"fs E/',ud;y·--E';~'lGv .BE 'IEF its-·f.!E'IEFI T5··---·BEr~Ents _-.~.•......--.......-._-----_._--.------...---------_.-.---._.---...-.--_..---------.------- ("'h)("~)(~IOIjO)(r.",,)(G"H)-(SIOOO)(G"H)(1;,.,;)(UOOO)(S1000)(HOOO) 19q~0.HS7 27.0 25.3 123~.1 2997.0 2801l.2 10fl635.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 ('1.0 1098n.3 19~5 0.~755 ?&5~0 232.~11370.5 3056.0 2&77.2 10~71S.8 397.0 3117.&134b4.7 0.0 128551.0 19q~.O.~192 bSD.n ~~7.02730~.2 30S~.O 2505.0 970~••0 397.0 325.2 12596.6 0.0 13&9112.8 -----rc~1f1:---o~..,i,b-5--·i)80-~·0----';>.21.-r----i55i1ij .-(---3,,5<1.0-·-23113.Q·--·-9080(~4---397~o ---3nll~·3 --rr7e8-~1--_·O~·O---128133.-&- 19q~0.7172 9S~.0 b61.3 33390.9 &057.0 Q3113.9 1&62~1.&397.0 28Q.7 11029.8 0.0 212702.3 19~9 0.D710 _103S.0 b'''''l.';>311038.3--b057.0 QObll.4 157aS&.4I 7il5.0'5?~.~20aO&.7 0-.0 211"01.5 20~J 0."279 1231.0 77_2.9 371'!rlO.0 b057.0 3803.0 11I73n.7 7~!>.0 1l'l2.9 190941.0 0.0 204301.& 20d1 O.S~75 13Q7.0 7~1.3 le7~3.2&057.o 3556.3 1378S0.~78S.0-4&1.2 17dbS.7_1_.1I 19a513.7 2002 n.5~97 1347.0 7~O.4 3&26&.3 &057.0 3~29.Q 126982.9 785.0 1I31.5 lb71&.5 23e~.2 184371.9---------------------·--------------·2I1SA33-~S-------------.--------·---iI40095~3------------_·-----··-.---122'1oLj.F-·~'2H8;-6··T5H2~f~" tiM 2003 20Q4 7.97&&13117.0 _107-4.5 52&58&~& pqESE~T "ORT~ijE~f.FITS 7721l20.1 .20.7.329.0 __._.____ 311597.&2&751153.0 3099&.2 4I18&7all.5 VI VI VI ____.CRF=O.Obal'!AV A~~8E~EFITS =53172.8 _ &057.0 1183111.2 1871&93.11 3011768._7_ 785.0 &2&1.&242575.11 3&5539.& .251&3.4 2511&.8 286212.0 4I9.01000S/~~·'(R 38~7acioO~ILL5/~~H 3A.711000~1~L5/~~H 0.0&675 CAPA.CITYENE:FlGY SECONDARYTOTAL5·.~POi'lER VALUES_.&.INTERESJ ------._-----------.------- CAPACIHVALIJE 1:,.~'lGY VAL'J£ SI:CO~i)ARY VALUE INTEREST run 1 --c~pici-iy-Tr~ERify--S-EcQii6ARYlNTfRe-sT ,_1 n.n ~~.711 38.7a 0\._116875 - 1 SY5TI:~JF DEVELOPMENT-NE'"SY5T£"1 -.-------...-------------------.-.---.--------..------.----..---.---.-- _qtL_-"-IJ~EL~FH 3~_INFLATION __----ntU..__~Ql~29.~_H~J..•....?8_8_?J...?__L.~- "4Et'/SYST£'l :~~---~,-__.-._--------,.-'-.__.~-._-~'-__-;--.__..-_._. :~:5 _". :----- ;'. ":-_. ____...•.0_-._.,...._0•••--:-••._.__._••__••••.0 __,. ,-,---,,-_.-_.__.-..-"--_.. -._-----_._--_._-----'-"---'--' -_._.....-~.-...-_..-.._._....~_._.__..•__...- -c_........:_:..~"""""""""~.c;7";'"'-=_~.~~.--:-=~.--:-":..::=~.:...::::~:.._ ._----_.._._-_._----_.--- JIL F:R~D rIT~S~I\FLATIO~ -"'--,'--:::;;,.~..o,;::_:::::;;::;"::;:=;-;"~-~'<"""""-"'~C~-:_~07""-·~=':.:':"=2..:..~~j:",~~-~;:,,"·:.:--o·C~",,,"_"-'7;=~...~___~:.c--..--,~ I>IlE5E',T ~l~T~uA~~ETA5L! ---.-Y-Eii~---f il.C"r"ol--··C APAC I t"v p~·':::SE:,T .•J:'"":':"'f ..ClF' C~c ~crrY ~AR~ETAeLE P~ESE~T CAPACITY FI~v ~DAT~FIP~ 8E'.EF ITS '-E\ERGY E'j:'lGY· FIll>!!"AIlMETABLE E\EPGY SECO~DA~Y tlE;,~F ITS E~E.'1G' PAESE~T SECJNOAAY I~rERAUP ~0AT~Sf:E~E'1GY CAPACITY TOTAL E'.E'lCY BE\EF I TS -BE·'lEFITS -·-·-BEr.EFI"rs- .~~..~.-..•.•....•...-.'...-_-_..--.._.~---_.._.-.-. ("'II)(""(5100C)(G"H)(G ..~)($1000)(GnH)(Gi";)($1000) 19~~0.enS7 27.0 :?S.3 135,).3 29<17.0 28011.2 122039.2 0.0 0.0..0.0 1995 0.e7SS 2&S.0 ?32.0 lZIIO~.~305~.O 2&77.2 11&512.9 397.0 3117.&151Z&.1 19Qo 0.~192 &~O.O ~~7.~Z9773..30~8.0 2505.0 109017.9 397.0 325.2 111153.1 ---iij~"r-·--6-.·7&·&5 &6~.0---"·';~I.Z-··2711,)".1 -C"·305".0 23113.9 10Z005.1 397.0 3011.5 132<1Z.& 19~~~.717Z 950.0 b~I.3 3&IIIS.9 6057.0 113113.9 l~qOIl5.3 391.0 2611.7 1239n.8 19H 0.b7111 1035.0t-"4~5 37IZc!.0 &OS7.0 /10&/1.11 176684.5 785.0 52&.8 229ZII.b 2000'').6279 1231.0 772.9 <11311.7 &057.0 3603.0 165505.9 785.0 '19Z.9 2111119.9 ZOOI 0~5975 13/17.0 7~1.3 42Z96.7 be,)7.G'3556.3 15 11 859./1 785.0 461.2 Z0070.1 ZO?2 0.5497 13<1j.0 7~~.4 39575.~.&OS7.0 33Z9.4 1411897.&1~5.0 <131.5 18779.0--.-.----------,.--,--------····--Z&810<l ~·5---·--·---_·.~.---121107&.,.9--·-----·-·--··----..-H813b·.J (S!OOO) o.J. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.7 2&00.Z 2b15~9 (S1000) 123389.6 1.1111039.& 152944.4 1113105.9 23785109 23&931.1 2282&7.5 217ZII1.8 205852.7 1689b24--,-'- ~_:-_c._}~~}--7-;9'(bb·--n1l7_;-0--16744 -;·5 --1574292'.ci----liosT;o-"4A3"fli:z-iCo-2635.4--'78"5,·o---b"ib-I-:b__-27 25-()b~'o----n7:H:rZ41f717.5;-ij·-· 0-PAESE/H.NO~TH dE'lEFITS 84239&.5 13831103.3 410&112.3 1103117.8 11&76789.9 _.._C.IlF=0.0668 AV .A~"I BE!\IEI'IIS = _.157989.9._..__.__._...__.._..232910.7......_._._.._. .2Q2&8.3.2777.5 321946 •.3.. 53.115QOOS/KN·YR 113.'5Z000~ILLS/K~~ 113.S2000~ILLS/K~N O.0&87~.. CAPACITY vALUE = E~FMGY VALUE = SECO~OA~Y VALV~= INTl~E5T ~ATE •..1_-_..__._. CAPACIfY ENERGY SECO!\lOARY INTE~EST - 1 53.115 .<l3.5Z 113.52.ill.0&87S SYSTE~OF OEVELOP~ENri4Et'I SYSTE\1 ....---.--..-.---.... OIL FIRE)wiTH 5%INFLATION-;-~Ei1-SYST.E\1 !~'----- ----,-_._----- ._.,"-.---_...---'''--'''-'- __CAf'ACI.T,Y_E~ERG\'SECONOARY J()TALS.···~OWE~V~LUE:J.&INT~REST _______~_~~:..579~_j2?9Jl~_8.?&-'t .....!?)9't~...._~__~_~_ ••_.'_'__'.,__•••_••_•.._.-..__•.•...••._p,.•__.__•••__~._,.,.•.•••••••••••'•.•••••__•',M ••_ ...-------_.._----_.----.-__..__.-_-\._' t,' ;:..____._....N_••.....;.......••__,.,'._•••._.__._.••••_......,. .:,"-;.:' _..-_._------_._---,--'------ _.r.......... '"c:;!lIII --------_....._•.._._.,-_..-_._._._-_..-..__._..---... -,---'-..._---------.-_.._-----_.-....._,._._-----," ,OIL FIRED lIlTt'!2X ESCALAUON .__--_---- TuTAL 8E'.EFITS....•.•.•. PRESE~T SECONOARY (~TEqqUp lIORTrl SEC .ENERGY CAPACITY ENiRGY BENEFiTS ~E"EFITS.....--.....-...........•........-._.-..----,.r'...-.......,i ----·-'---·-PRESElllr--·----PRESE..-r·-MARKETABLE -PRESE"-T -F Iq","'UKETABLE ·.JRT~"'AR<ETASLE _OQTH OF CAPACITY 1tR'"WORTH FIR'"[HERGY SECO~DARY ---YEa~-----FAC TOR-CAP_AClT\'"CAPACITY -·BEP.EF ITS ENEqGY EO/ERGY Bf'lEF ITS ENERGY '-'~I '~"I.'~IVVU'\unnl \v~n,,.'uvv,,."~"\~~~I \~IU,VV',.,VWUI '••VVVI19~4 0.9157 .27.0 l5~3 1152.3 2997.0 2804.2 13n704~3 0.0 0.0'0.0 0.0 t31~5~.5 --~1995-----lJ.8755----265.lJ·----232.0 '··10581,7·---·-30S8.0-··'2677.2 121178S.6 "---391.0 ----3117.6 16200.1 ._.O.~151'i67.3 -199&0.8192 680.0 557.0 25110&.3 3058.0 2505.0"11&7';8.4 397.0 12,~2 151sa.O 0.0 \5H22.& ---I·q9T--0.7(~65·::---'61:l0-.0----·521.2~·--23771.9'-'--3058.0---'-"23113.9 'U921t1.6'·-~··197.0 .-----3011.3-'--1/1182'.9 -..0.0 147202.5 1998.0~7172 950.0 b81~3 31074.4 6051.0 4343.9 ~024&7.8 397.0 284~7 13~10.6 0.0 246~12.8 1"tJ9 .0.6710 1035.0 b~-~n77.o n~o--iron~l!l9443";'~85'~0-S2-6~45SZ;r-----0"~o--2 :',;,72.9 .2noo 0.&279 1231.0 172.q 35252.1 &057.0 3803.0 171251.2 785.0 492.9 22972.9 0.0 235482.Z ~---200t "-,O-·~5815'-·--Ulq~o'~---79f~'3'-'31>092.&---._.b057;O-'-'-35'i8~3 -1&!l854.1------785.0 .----4&1.2--U1l95~1 13.4 22 Sl~'ir:,-.e 2002,.0.5491 1347.0 .740.4 33710.9 6057.0 3329.4 155115.&185.0 431.5 20112~4 2218,8 211287.7-----...-,"-.'''-''---.--.--..-..-...,.--.--·--·--..--.-----22R779~r --.....------.-..-'-.--1311704.1 -.-._.----.-..-,-.....141944.2 2232.2 1750&60,j '--------'---'-_._~--------_._---------------------_--.:.__._-_..- ___.__..__...-_,.__..- -~_._..__..._----_...0_-.---_.__.__.."__•,"._..._....__....__....._ 'I 0744 ~5'--490055.4---6051~O ·---UT14;22l51926;/j-----785.0 -.'6261.6'291854 ~4 718834.5 3623&31.1 439798." 2003 209..4 .'7.9766 '13117.0' PRESE~T~ORTH BE~EFlrS--_. UI UI.... CRFa O.Ob88 AV A'l~8E~EFITS •49484.0 2494117.8 30275.4 32197.4 30&1>033,& ~~~2q._~_~~~~o.93_~9 _ .2370.1 311577.2 CAPACITY VALUE.45.61000S/K~~YR~ERGY .VlLU~--=4ft.61 OO"""Oii"...T.IL'""'Lc-;S.-'/..K;-:::I'I;;,H,-------------------------· SECONDA"Y VALUE.46.61000'lILLS/I(It;t4--·INlERESt.-RAl'f.•0~O&e75"-----..--------.-.--------.-.-.--.-----.-. \ ...~_~..,~!;.uL~~~.~l!y _~~CO_~_I!~~'t J.!"l.T~~~!J.P.LA.lJ_LE TOTALS ___49'!.8..1i.•__.~!±~~~L_JO_~I~.,__?31.~.•__:__·__~31 sn. CAP~ClTY ENr.~{jV Sf.C.O~DA~V INTI!REST 1 45.&1 46.61 46.61 0.06875 _._ 1 . SYSTE~OF OEVE~OP~ENT -~Eii'"SYS TE'N -.._-....-,...- OIL FIRED "ITH 21 ESCALATION-'ij'Elf-aYS·t"EM ---.---._---,.---.----. 1-'-,-~~----'-'-'----.--------_•...:.::.:-_.__.__'••_.'."-_.__.__..:...••__•.--'-_ I ~._,_.':'-__"-.,.._0 .:-.__._••._••_•••_.__•••••__•.._•••,•• ____________________________~O~IL~F~I~R~E~O~~~1~T~H_2~%~ESCALATIONAND 31 INFLATION ------.--'---'PRESENr--.-....PRESENT wORTH ~AR~ETAE\LE WQPfH OF -----·-·YEAR --'-FACTOR'CAPACITY--'CAPACITV ~AR~ETA9LE PRESENT FIR~~ARkETABLE CAPACITY FIA"WOA1H FIRM El.lfllGY SECO~IDUY BE~EFITS'E~ERGV ENERGY eE~EF1TS ENERGY PRESENT SECONOARY ~ORTH SEC EkERGY ENERGY BENEFITS INTEIlIlUP CAPAC ITY BENEFITS TOTAL 8E'iEFtTS •.."~T----rs-fOoO ,--rGiik)'--(GlliPi Y--U1 000 )·-rGf/Fi)·----"{GjiH)---U 1000)----c1fOOO)(st 00 ~) 19~q 0.93~7 27.0 25.3 1294.2 2997.0 2804.2 170l2S.6 0.0 0.0 0.0·0.0 175519.8 --c-·i99!-"----O~8755-·-j!l.5.0---232.0"lIl1S5.S·-3058.0 -.,2671.2 110&336.1'"-197.0 .3117'.&21590.3 0.0 1996110.0 19'16 0.8192 680.0 5S7.0 285Jb.8 30S8.0 2505.0 15Sbl6.1 397.0 325.2 20205.2 0.0 2011HlI.I ----T9H·-..O.7665·---680~0--·-..521.Z·-·2&701.1--·3056.0 -2l/l3.9 1115624.5 -397.0 3011.3 18905.S 0.0 191al.0 1998 0.7172 9;0.0 681.J ']4903.4 6057.0 4343.9 2109884.7 397.0 264.7 176~9.3 0.0 322477.11 19""0.6110 1035.0 6911.5 Jt;580-;z----.;0~o-&IOO.·;r-25i'52J~7 '''5;0--52.~'-'12727.6-----0.0·,"J20631.~ 2/}00 0.&279 12-31.0 712.9 39595.8 6057.0 3803.0 236279.5 78S.0 492.9 ;;1)622.3 0.0 30&4'17.7 ---2001 '--O~587'''--lJ/f.7~0--''--·791'.3-''-·-1ic)539.9--6057 .o--·-·-JS58.3·221080.2 -.-..--785.0'...-:~'.;J ~'»52.5 13.0 29Q287.7 ,2002 0.5q97 1307.0 740.4 37932.1 10057.0 ~;l9.0 2010858.7·785.0 431.5 26809.3 2092.2 2740'12.~ ...-....256969.0"-1828449.2-----.-.197Z0o.0 2507.2 2285131.4 2003 2090 '7.9766'13117.0'--1'07l1li;5-5501139;3 "--6'O57~0 --118314;2 -3001763.3'""-785.0 PRESENT NUl/Ttl UENEFIrli 807408.3 11830212.4 UI UI C» CRF.O.Ob~~AV A••RENEFITS •555~t.3 332507.8 6261.6 3890311.9 5862~0.9 40351>.3 3&1&11.7 3977402.2 186~?O.02625~~.6 2662.1 1131107.& CAPACITY VALUE a 5t.23000S/K~.YR ENE~ih VALUE -6Z-~fiooo"lLLS/KWH SECONDAQY VALUE-b2.13noO~ILLS/KWH 1'111 I.!"'If "All .'0./1""1'., I CAPAClfy lNlHGY 9ECONDAHY IN1EMlbT 1 51.23 62.13 62.13 0.06875 ..,-'-'-'-~",.---.__.~...__._----_....CAPACITY ENERGY SECONDARY INTERRUprA8LE TOTALS ~.o6~.•_.__..1131.108. ------------------------,----~-----------------~---------.-------_._-----."_.". ---------'------'----_.__.._------- ..-'.._.__--_..•..... ...~_.._-__-_._..__._.._.._.'_._.-..-__--._.._._." '"''''~~''''''''' en <0 I..., toco o I coo -~-_._--_.__..---------_.._-_. --_.._._---~-----~----..__.__._.._- __~~---------------~--~O~I~l~F~I~R~E~O-"~I~T~H2%ESCALATION AND 5%INFLATION toen --._-.----C'"--PRE~Er·n------.--.----.-PRESPlt-'.-ioIAii"'ETA9lE""PRESE··'lt FIRM MARKE TARLE .PRESE 'lT SECO"I)ARY wORTH ~ARKETA8lE NORTH OF CAPACITY FIRM NORTH FJR~.E~EHGY SECONOARY NORT~SEC ENERGY -----YEU----FACTOR CAPACITY CAPAC IT;AE~EFJ TS ENEHGY ENERGY 8E 'jH ITS ENE.RGY ENE.'lGY 8ENE~1 rs I'lTE'l'lJ;> CAPACITY TOTAL 8ENEfITS ~l~l~lTS (\tO~Jl ZIQ·.l3'i.O 2UZS.,?2 205HO.0 2301~3.~ 3AQ~OI.6 .3111109 •.·) 36~lt'l.4 3llqlI7.1> 329 11;'''.9 2756~'13.~ ........._-_....•....•.._.........-.-..-.-----..------.--_. iu ·r--\~nl --(~--.-(sl·60o)---fl~;.rlj--·--n'-iiHT--(S1000 }------rGili-tj -----rc,.>:tr--n to OO)--rSfOOO). 1990 0.9357 27.0 25.3 '0'~~8 2997.0 2ROO.2 212~15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 .0.0 -----1995--..,.0~8755--··265.0·---232.0-131\29.3'--3058.0'2677.220291l7.4 397.0 3tH.6 2&3'>2.5 0 •.0 1996 0.ftl Q2..61l0.0 5S7~0 31282.9 3058.0 250S.0 189929.7 397~0 325.2'24657~J 0.0 lClQ7 ---0.7665 '6.1\0.0 52102'29270.&-3056.0 2343.9 177712.0 397.0 300.3 23071.2 0.0 1998 0.7172 950.0 6et.3 38262.2 6057.0 4305.9 329352.3 397.0 284.7 2151l7.1 0,0 1999 0.6.1101035.0 6'1j~~004-;r-oG5T;·O---Il064.4 301l165';9 71l5.0 SZ!i~1f-1q939;cr---0.0 2000 0.6279 1231.0 77?9 43ij06.2 &OS7.0 3803.0 -288342.4 785,0'492.9'}136q~8 0,0 ----··..OOl ..-....·0·.5875--·'T347.lJ--791 r-..·1l44ijl.Z----·60S7.0----3558.3 2697Q4.0 .785.6 4&1.2 1119&S.9 1&.5 2002 0.5097 1347.0 700 0 41582.0 &057.0 3329.4 252038.9 78S.0 431.5 32716.&2732.0----.---...-.._---_...-_....-....---281697.8-''''--..2231337.8'-240659,3 27Q8,5 Ul Ul -0 2003 ·20911 7.97&6 13117.0 PRfGENT~ORTH SENEFITS 1071111.5 6031109.6 --c--c--c~8~8~5107,11 6057.0 483111,2 3663185.1 785.0 b2~l,6 1174756,5 3~6~~,O 117A019b.2 5894522.Cl 7l54_~~__~~.3H.5.7"HQ~q.!> CRF.O.O&AA AV A~~RE~EflTS •60930.1 110'57711.1 49208.6 2918.3 '518il71.1 CAPACITY ENEHGY SECONOARY INTEHlST 1 56.16 75.82 75.82 0.06875 _______.....f~P_~C I.T.~J_~.E.~~Y CL:,~.::~~RY L ..T_E.RR~P.!_A8L.~'OTAlS I SYSTE~OF DEVELOPMENT -1ff:~-'SYS t EI4-----·-------------....--------.---.._--._..--...-_....-- OIL FIRED NITH 22:ESCALATION AND 52:INFLATION ~EirSYsf£M'-------"-------'"........-.--._.._~_o~~~•.._~~~.n~.L ~9_?_4~_!z.!!~.!518871. --------------------------------------.-..-_._-... ---_._.__._0·..._._~__.__._......_.. ---'------------'---------------------------------,-----_._--_..--. ~~,.:-_.':..":~.:--_.-.- -------_._-_._---------- ______________-=-:3::.:1L=-.;F...;I=-.R;.:l:..::O-=.:..::"ITH 21 ESC AL AT I ON AFTE ~-:...P=-OL=-__ ----·----·PRESEf./T""·-----···--·-·PRESErn··-\fIRO<ETA/iLE PRESENT ~O~T"M&R~ETA9LE ~O~rH OF CAPACITY FI~M ~ORrH FIR~ --"EAIl'--.FACTOR CAPACITY"CAPACITY ~E.~EF'ITS E~t:~GY..E~ERGY FIRM MARKETAaLE ENERGY SECO~OA~Y ·8E'iF.FITS ENE.RGY PRESE~T SECa~OA~Y ~ORT~SEC E~ERGY E'IE~:;Y BEI\jEFITS I'HER~UIO CAPAC lTV BE"EFITS TOUL aE~.C::FnS (\100-) Q837',.2 ll~21i.3 122902.1 llS05~.3 190~&".· 19<i156.7 - .1'}3Q05.6 PlIbS:'.'"l 1&5575.2 llSb261.1 .........~.••....•.. . rw,iiT----"PofiiT--·-nlO.,or~c,;Hr-____rsil~T--\S 1(1/)Ol-~GftHl-'----':Gr;'fl---·U 1000)'·.""{1I00\l) lQQ4 0.Ql~7 27~0 25.3 11~~.2 2Q97.0 2804.2 Q72~0.0 6.0 0.0 0.0 o.~ ---IQ95 0.8755 265.0 232.0 1(1333.4 3058.0 2&77.2 9Z846.2 3Q7.0 347.&12053.&0.0 IQ9&0.81Q2 &80.0 557.0 24810.2 5058.0 2505.0 80873.7 397.0 325.2 11278.2 O.V -----·199r-'--0.7665 -'-"'&80.0-"'"521.2 23214.2 -·30<,8.0----2343.9 81285.3-····lQ7.0 -··-lOIl.3 10552.7 0.0 .1998 0.7172 950.0&81.3 303q~.4 6057.0 4343.9 150&45.5 397.0 284.7 9873.9 0.0 1999 0.6110 1035.0 ----lj1JV·;''----]OHT;B-0057.0 4ODIl;4-140954·~S---78·';1)-------S-20.T-'18268-;il'·:---··O.0 2000 0.&27Q 1231.0 772.9 3442~.1 6057.0 3803.0 131887.5 785.0 4Q2.9 17092.9 3.0 2001 0.5875.1347.0 7Q1.3 35245.9 0057.0 3558.3 123403.5 785.0 461.2 15Q93.4 13.1 2002 0.5497 1347.0 740.1l 32978.0 &057.0 3329.4 1154&5.3 785.0 431.5 149&4.5 21&0.1 ,223412.0 1020611.9 1l0077.3 UH.! ---_._.._----_._------_._.__... --_._----_..-_..---'.-..__'------------_.------_..~_- Z003 2094 7.976&13G7.0···-107IJ4.S 4785S8.8··-·0057"'-0·---4831G;·21675537.6·-----785~0--·'6261-.6 PRESENT'~D~TIi f1ENEFlTS 701970.8 2&9fll119.5 Ul 00.o CRF:0.0&88 AV A~~9E~EFITS •118323.1 18!ioOO.7 217153.2 327210.11 2252".3 31442.1 240?~Q!.7 13112,1.9 3150972.-'· 21tll.5 2587b~.6 C~!'_~qD'_E..~~~.GL s~~.Q.~l!~RY.J.NT_E~~~!'TAKI.E TOT.ALS 258765. ...._---_..._':.._.- CAPACITY ENERGY SECONDARY INTEREST i 44.54 34 .118 34._&~8~_O:!.!.!.:0~1I~8.!..7S=!...__'___ CAPACITY VALUE -"1I.511000S'~N·YRENERCYVAI.UE·---.:-3i1.b"eooo\ij LLS-':',:;K-:::W-:-:H-------------------· SECONDARf VALUE_31l.&8000~ILLS'KWH INr~HEST RATE •0.06875 .1 I SYSTE~O~OEVELOPMENTNEwSYSTEM-'--.----------.-.--------.. OIL FIRED WITH 21 ESCALATION AFTER POL 48323.1851101.22526.2315.-"NE"ii-SyST"£ii-----·--..---:.-.----.--------------..--------......------..'-"_."-'-'---'---.--.-----0---..--. ---:-------_._-------_.....__..._._._-_._._._....._-_.__._--_..- --_.-:------------_._-_._--_..----.._------...-_._-------_.-._-------:----'"':"._..__..-._--_..~-,...,-.,-.._.._.__.._.,-._._--- ---'---------------------------------------------------_._._-._---- "';ifj'i:~''';:,;:S':/,~it_*{(_ _.~---'.-..~----_._.._-_.~."_..._,, ._._---~--~---_.__. OIL FIRED ~ITH 2\ESCALATION AFTER POL A~O 3%I~FLATIO~--'----------------- -----------PRESE~T··.-.---PRESEPiT-"ARkE.TABLE--PRESENT - -FIR'4 IofARKETABLE PRESE'IT SEC'l'lOARY ~QqTH ~AR(ETA8LE ~ORT~OF CAPACITY FIR~~O~TH FIR~E'lERGY SECONDARY·~ORT~SEC E~ERGf ---YEU ..-FACTOR -CAPACIfY··C,"PAC ITY 8E'lEF ITS ENERGY E\;ERGY BENEFITS ENERGY E~EqGY BEliE"ITS I~TER~JIt CAPAClTY TOUL BENEFITS BEr.;qTS•..•........•.•........•.-._---...._....•..•...-...._._-....-...-------- (~II){l{1i,.---TSf(ll)O}--"[G...Hr--wil,;r--(STO!lO}----n;i~H}·""·-~~'il -......UIll.,O,-:-"\1I010} 199Q 0.9557 27.0 25.3 12~~.1 2997.0 2~n~.2 1295Ab.3 O~O 0.0 0.0 0.0 19~5-·-.0.6755 -.211S.0 _.....-232.0 U~.s5.7 .-.·30':>8.0 --21>77.2 125527.3 ·3''1.0 ·347.1>lbOJ&.7 0.0 1996 0.6192 680.0 5~7.0 27740.2 3058~0 2505.0 11S511.1 397.0 325.2 15005.1 ~.o 19117 0 •.7b65··&80.0 _.521.2-·259'>5.8 ..3058.0·2343.9 108111&.0 397.0 3011.3 140J9.~0.0 1998 0.7172 950.0 &nl.3 33929.1 6057.0 113113.9 200 0 21>.2 397.0.284.7 13136.7 0.0 ~q o.67T0 1035.0 61~qSI\7.0 6057.0 4064.4 1875n-;T"---n5";O---'Z-6-~·g--27n04~"'---·0.0 2000 6.&279 ·1231.0 772.9 38490.&6057.0 3803.0 175469.6 785.0 492.9 227~1.3 0.0 --··:-·--·200F:·-·0~·5875··-·1347·;0--·--791~:f-·391108.J·-···6.057·.0 ....-·--3S56~1·.16 11182.2 ·--785.0 -..ti&I.2··21278.4 111.1> 2002 0.5~97 1347.0 740.4 36~73.3 6057.0 3329.11 153620.8 785.0 431.5 19909.~2422.& -24q79&.1··-135787~.9 14&1152.4 2/J37.3 (S I"0 ~) 13'J~Oj~.1I 1';1111.7 15832&,4 1ilill '11.7 2'174Q2.0 2'10 4 2".0) .25,:>701,& 22""'3.5.5 21202&,3 175&':>58.7 ._----•..._._._-,.._.------ 25~7.8 333~20.229970.1 6261;6 ·288911.5 351;S.2 306&360.1 ___11_3_53&h.~3!.5'1i!.~48~"r;18,8 785.0 511029.90.Ob8R AV A~~8E~EFITS ..CRF .. 2003 ·2094·7.9766·1347.0 107114S-·S35074.7···60S7~O······1I83111~2 2229218.7 PRr ,EI'lT 1i0RTH flENEFITS 7801870.9 3587091.0-,----._-,-_.------_.-_.._-_..._--_._-_._----_.-.- 2110932.4 VI 0-- CAPACJTY VALUE =119.80000i,KIi-yR--uE~Lur =116.1 1I000'fITl:""S,..;'rok"'I'lTIH.,.---------'------------.,.----- SECO~~'~Y VALUE-46.1110GO~ILLS'KI'lH rNT~M(,T ~Al~•O.00.7~ 1 C,"PAClTY ~NEHliY SECONDARY I~TERESl 1 49.80 .46.14 116.14 0.06875 I SYSTE~OF DEVELOPMENT ..CAPACITY ENERGY ~tt~.~ARY i.,TERRVPTABLE ,bTALS'~EW ·S'is'rE"ioi -.-.--..------..--.-----..---;-.-.-..-_--.,.----------.--_.-~_---..-. ~IL·FI~EO WITH 2%ESCALATION AFTER POL ANO 3%I~FL~TION 54030.246932~29970.2588.333520.-·.~Eii-SyllTEjf---·---·_---·---··-----··--.----.--.-.-.-..-.------.-~.~---.---.--..,.-- -,.-.-. ------'-----------------~--:-c,.,--_:_------------:---......:---...~-~.-."'"".~------. ,----------------------_._-~--~.._.._--_..__._---_._----_.._-.---_.- _..---_..__.._------_..._-----_..._._-----.---.__.._----_.-._------,----,------ 1----------------------------------------------_·_-----.-.. ~'-".._-'-;~':';::.•,~::;;:--"~:~'---·~-C-;:~f.d"",,-,,:"";~:-:-.'---";':-:':""-:::-":;~'.-'::'c~~-~:3~:?--:-:----"'-~:-_.'.~'-'CO-'-~-"-"""-"';;_~·"'''''-'~=.-~---.---=''-';,",:',~':~"' ~.<• ._.~.------_..---'--'-.-.'._... ..__._--~---_.__.---_..-.-_.,,-,----_._~--_..~-._- __________________________~O~l~~_~F~l~~.E~D__.~l~T~~~~SCA~.TION AFTER PO~A~D 51 IN~~ATI0N -------.-----l'AES('.ir-------PRESENT ----"'AAI<EU8l:.E-PAESE,.r ~ORTH MAR~ETAR~E ~ORTH OF CAPACITYFIR~WORTH FIR~ -----yEAR--FACTOR "--CAPACITY-CAPACJTY--'BE~jEnTS-'ENERGY -ENERGY FIRfol IoIAAI<EfAa~E PRESENT SECO'lDAAl'"l'iT£RqJ~ ENERGY SECONDA~Y ~ORTHSEC .E~ERG~CAPACITY fir"lEFITS ENERGy -EN[RGY-BE'lHIrS -BENEFITs TOTAL eE'::'flf.S_.._-----...---.-_..--..._---.......-.~.......-......_-.......--•......•..._----...._...-...._-- IUin-,...,~ft~SH(\O)--rGli~l---n;wtt)---urOocl)-----"(GiiHyc-:----rlO'iH)-·--UlliOcl)----rsIO?O)($t000) 19~q 0.9157 27.0 25.3 137q.b 2997.0 2ROQ.2 15773b.R 0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0 I~Qlll.q -._-_.19~5 0.8755 -..-265.0 '··232.0·12623.3 3058.0 2677.2 150594.0 397.0 307.6 19550.6 0.0 18?lb7.9 19~6 0.8192 6~0.0 :557.0 3~30~.1 3058.0 2505.0 140906.7 397.0 325.2 1~293.0 0.0 1~9S01.8 -·.---19H·_·0.166S -.--"M.O··---52hZ---Z8358.5 "3058.0·----2343.9 131842.5 197.0 304.•3 lHl6.l 0.0 177117.3 19~!0.1172 950~0 681.3 310b9.~6057.0 4343.9 244342.8 391.0 284.7 IbOIS.l 0.0 297~27.9 ["""0.li110 1035.0 6911.5 37768.7 li057.0 10lill.1 ZZ8624~1l-'lJS;·O--SZ~2''J630.3·--···'0.0 --29"IlH.8 20110 6.b279 1231.0 772.9 420~3.7 b057.0 3803.0 213917.9 785.0 492.9 Z7124.2 0.0 2aJ~95.8 ·2001'-0.5875'--"-1347.0·-791;:r lI]<lSb.1I '-'6057.0'3558.3200157.1 ..785.0 461.2 25940.8 16.0 ZI)'II7J.f .Z002 0.5497 1347~0 740.4 40Z116.7 6057.0 3329.4 187281.S 1'85.0 431.5 2Q272.1 21>q6.9 2S I IJIi7.2-.-----..--..-..-......-..--.----....--.-.--'··'·---'·'272919.8 ----.....-...------.1655404.2 --'-"._-...178542.4 2&1>2.9 2109529.3 ---.--_._-_...----_._._...._._.-._---_._--~-------_._-----'._.._.~_._-~.'----_._---~-_.~,-_..-.._. 2003 . -2094 - -...,;9766 1347 ~O - 1 071lQ;'·5114606 ~8 ·--·6057.0--'-'83'14 .2-'2717&75.(.--"--'785'.0 -- PHE SE ~T /lUR TH t\E'4I;FIT S 8F~26.1t 4373079.8 UI 0- Il,) CRFa 0.0688 AV ANN 8ENEFITS •5903 1.~___.____..._.!~_1 039.2 6261.-'-152216.5 .38 1109.6 3692908.<1 5307~8...9 .4101~•.5 58~c!'l37.8 .~65].7_.•~..2827.4 399Q35.0 CAPACITY VA~UE • --rnrRGy .VAL.~ SECONDAQY VA~UE. INTEREST IlATE • 1 54.41000S/Kl'l-YA56.ffi 0 O'fmS/:;.;Kr.:W""H.-------.:.-------.,.--------------------------------- 56.2S000~I~~S/KWH 0.068'75 . ENE~GY'SECONDARY INTEREST 56.25 56.25 _'l'-"•..:.OIt=.:8:.;~~5--.,......,---.,......,--.,......,-------------'-----'----......._.. CAPAC lTV 1 5/1.41 I SYSTEM OF DfVEL.DPMENT -~EjirSYstEI.r----·--·------- ~~~~~;~~/JJ~2.!.ESC~I,_~_UlU~TER POL.AND __~~.•.NF~!_I.O!L CAPACITY ENERGY SECONDARY INTERRUPTABL.E TOTA~S-~---.~.._--'•.--'.•....-----..-_._._·,,·v·-·,-_. ~~_~_~I.L_19J_0_3~_~_,__~b5~.7 _•..2..s.2.I •..__. .399q 3S • .--',;...",:.....:..-_----------_._-_...:-.._._-_-:._--,.__..._----.-.------..,._._..-~---~._- .....,.~........... J JIL-3j~DE'~AOP OF :5~ P~~SE~T •iE.T ~AQ'ETA~L~D~ESE~T FI~~MA~~ETABlE P~ESf\J SECO\DARY I~TER~UP "J~r<i "Aijo<EHnc:.."1 (if CAPACllT FI~"..OIlTM F.I"'l E"tPGY 5~C8,[l~IlY "ol<r ..S~C ('-eRGY CAPACHY TOTAL '---,-Y-Ei:r-'-j;~:l'lll--'-CADACi fy-C ;..CIT'--dE"'EFlh E';EIlGY ...-t'ljEilGY'---BE'_EFI rs E;.E;;iil'----Er.E~:;Y .6E';U I TS "a-E"lEn TS --BEf-;EF ITS'.......-_._--.-.-------._.-.....-----...-----.-.-.-.-...--------_.---..---_.-.-...---..- (",,)(',)UI~on) 19~4 O.~3~7 27.0 2~.3 109~.7 1~~5 'O.~7S5 2&5.0 r~2.0 lDOb2.r lQ9~O.51~2 &~q.o ~S7.0 2~1~8.5------CH7-.-o~ii,-j;r,----I)e'o~b-,--'oZ1.2----226(i<i~" lq9~0.7172 951.0 ~51.3 2q5~a.3 19H 0.1>7101035.0 ",'1i1.5 30121.3 '2Jno 0.1)279 1231~0 712.'1'~3520.~ 2~OI 0.;875 I'Q7.0 ;'11.3 34320.1 2~~~0.5497 1347.n 7 Q O.4 32112.3----------------...------------·-,~n 75a3'.3 (G"''i)(S',I1) Z997.0 2~O<l.2 3~5o.0 2&77.2 305(\.0 25050.0 30511.0-'--Z343.9 />057.0 4343.9 b057.0 ~0&".4 1>057,.0 3!ln3.{1 &057.0 355B.3 &057.0 3329.~-..---_.. ('101)0)(G"~) S1737.7 0.0 4'139<1.8 3'17.0 <16217.4 '397.0 jj324~'-3"----3'17.0 ~OI<1<1.a 3 9 7.0 749811.9 785.0 701&5.1 7~5.0 &5&51.5 785.0 &1<128.3 1~5.0 '5'42972.(;---., (c ...·u 0.0 31l1.& 325.2 304'.3 28~.7 ,52&.8 ..92.9 4&1.2 __~_~1._5 (S1000)($1000)(SI000) 0.0 0.0 52833.3 &1112.&0.0 &58&9.4 bOQO.l 0.0 7&37&.0 50&14 .-1·-------0.-0--'--714&2.9 5253.0 o.n 114945.7 9718.7 0.0 114828.9 90 9 3.5 0.0 112779.4 8508.&12.7 '108492.9 79&1.2 2109.8 103&11.7 5~5bl ~-9 2122;&-·-821200~4-- 0.0&68 AV A"l~~E"lEFITS : VIe 2003 20~4 7.97&&1347.0 "~ESE'a "O~.T11 BE'lEFJLS,.._. CRF:. 10744.5 465987.B 6113531.1 . ,47053.7 &057.0 IlB314.Z 8,91397.& 111311310.2 ___..._,9~71l 0.9 __. 7'35.0 &2&1.&115527.0 1740118.9 ...11964 •.1 30&1&.1 1503528.5 32738.7 2324728.9_ 2253i7 .1&0032.4,,_ CAPACITY VALuE =43.37000!/~~-YR E~E~GY ~ALUE =18.45000~lLLS/~~~ .SEC?~DA~Y VALUE:16.45000~IL~S/~~~__. I~rEqEST RATE =0.0&875 "_1_.__,•.__.~__"__._'-,_..".__ ,CAPACITY ENERGY SECONDARY INT~REST 1 ;:;.37 1;,...5 ..18 •.45,__0.00_1I.i5 ,-.....'.-....__..-,..-_.-._.-_._._-_._-.. .-.•.....-.__._-_-------_._-----.._---_. "CAPAClrV.ENERGY SECOfllDAqy TOTALS:---POI'IER_V.ALUE~.."-_,I"'TEFl~SL 1 SYSTE"JF OEVELopr4E"lT ."lEi'SYHE,j'".., .,,--..------,-,.----,.,.---._,--. .JIL'SUO)E~DROP OF 35X~~(';--SysT"E'ij----- _...._.__.._--"--'----'---------_.---.._.__.__.._-.--... 47.Q2lh_98J.!!l.L-l.t~!l..IlL_t1!g_Q..~~__.------------ ";'-"- ,~_. ..--_.-,_....._-_..__...-'--'-'"-'--"'-"---._-_..... -----"--.-._..----------_._---- ---------~.._----------_. JIL-S':"ODlN O~OP OF 3S~A'll)3%INFLATli3A!-_.---.- P~E5f'lT P:::SE ..T ~JqT"~a~~ETA5LE ft0-T>l Of -----VE&'l--··r~tThq·-C~P4CITY ··l:A~:C'Uy ~.q~ETA~LE PRESE~r CAPAcrTY Flq··~0qTri FI~~ aE~ttrrS E~E~GY"t~E~GY FI~~MAq~EfA~LE E~EQGY SECO~~A~Y tiE ';EF rts E~,E"GY PRESE'T seCO~OARY ~:1~T'1.SEC ·E"'E.>lGY E~Eq~y aE,;EFiTS I''HERRUP -.. CAPA.CITY TOTA;. BE';EFITS aE"'EFITS' (...i)('"~)(SI00D)(G ..")•(G~H)($1(100)(G ..>4) 1~9~O.93~7 27.0 25.3 121~.2 2997.0 2A04.2 &~394.7 0.0 19~5 0.6755 2~5.0 2'32.0 111~7.2 3056.0 2~77.2 ~5297.0 3 9 7,0 19~~0.9192 b90.0 0,57.0 2b1l60.1 3056.0 25~5.0 01097.1 397.~ ---T~~1---o-,7bb5--·-·--b!!(I-;il---""ll'-I?··-2si32.S··3~513.0-'-'23113.9 .57160.9 --397,0 199q 0.7112 950.0'r ?1.3 321152.&b057.0 4343.9 105947.0 397.0 19~~0,0710 1035.0 ~q~.5 33~69.7 0057.0 ,40bll.1I 99131.7 765.0 230'O~~21Q 1251.0 172.9 372&9.4 0057.0 JF03.0 92754.8 785.0 '2031 0.sa7~1347.0 7~1.3 3~158.0 6.57.0 355Q.3 8678a.l 785,0 2002 0.5497 1347.0 TIIO.~35703.4 0057.0 3329.4 81~05.3 785.0,..-.-.------....--.--------------...----z4f870;.;---·------··-.....-.--71'77 I3Y.3-----.... (G"'1) 0.0 347.6 320,.2 304.3 2811.7 '52b .!l 492.9 1I~1.2 431.~5 .._ (SI000)(SI000) (SI000) 0.0 0.0 09612.9 81171.2 0.0 811901.9 79Jl.8 0.0 95889.1 111'21 ;6·---·0';0·-8972·0.6- 69~4.2 0.0 14~743.8 IZ8u7.T 0.0 1115469.1 12021.2 0.0 142045.4 11247.9 14.2 130208,2 1~5211,M 2~45.8·129778.8' 7111 lb.(]---2359~9·'·i039430·;C _ 0.._.0.__.•__._.__•.H_ c.n 0- ol:lo 2()03 '----2094--·'f;'m.&--·lT4-,;o-Tcfli4-;5·S'f8098~~·----b(j5t·.O-·····IiHrli:-2Tin38if:r--·.,85.-0-····-bC'!!iI:-()·H2.,2r~·i ---·3·iioJ.;·~-ri8113Zli3-;-6- PRESE~T 4~RTH BE~EFITS 7~9969.3.1890107.4.230137.1 30399.8 2922073.0 C~F.:..!l.n088 AV .A,!~.8.E'lEFITS.:..._52_H~•.L_,...._..._ ._------..._-_.._-------~-------...,.,.. 1305.3.0.f!.._.'_'._.'_'_....._.,.._....15892.#......2505.',2~1 J911.11 . 1 41l.22000l/I(,j·YR 2~.3900 O'4ILL·S/Kr\H 2·~.39000"JLLS/I(~I":... 0.0&875 CAPACHY ENER·i,-v----SECO-..;·D"A'iiY I NTE·'Il£ST 48.22 24.39 24.39 (11.0&875. ----.__.-._-.------_._--- ----._,---'---'_..-------_.._--....----~-------.---_._--.-.•. SYSTE'"JF OEVELOPMEI;T .......CAPACITY'ENERGY SECOPWARY TOTALS-"-I'.OWER.VAL,UE§.....INTERES:r,'~E.i SYSTE'".'..-....---.--.--..: .--.......- -....-....'---.--..-..".".., .'_:)J.I".:'.S.!.J.~_i)_~J)ROP_OF_~~~...!!!..I?J~....J.NFL~J!,ION..,._...~~ll.!:!..._U95..Jl....__1.5J!!'2.L.J.OJ.~.!..o. "lE~'.S1ST!" :r.----•._•.~..•_._.••__••_~.•,_••__.••,•••••_ :~------_.._._-;-.. ~'..---.__. ~~ ____._'·M'·M··._'.•·_•..•,.•..•..__•.•._•..H.'__"'_HH .•••,,-__.•,__,,__ ••._...._.•.__••'_'_'H'_._.••••H ~....... D!L~:-'JOOEN_DROP OFl5%_AN05X_)NFLATIDN ./, PRESENT p.::5E"'T '4AR~ETABLE P~ESENT FIR"MARl<nAflLE PRESE~T SEC:JNOARY-I:ilTER:;JP- .•()~TH !~AR;(ETA8LE ..0 Th OF CAPACITY FJP~l wORTH FIR'"E'H::RGY SECU"'DARY "'ORT"SEC E.NERGY CAPA::l.!L~_()_T_~!-__ YH~---FAt-TrfR---ttJ;iAtITyc~.ACITY--IiI::",-EF iTS----E'JERGy-----E~WH;y_----8F..N[F(r5-E""EilGY------E~iEqGY---BE...EFrrS----;-tiE~EF 1 1 s BE"'EFITS -_.~_-.-.-.----_._------_-_.-----.---.---.-_--------.--..----..------..-----._.--_.----. -(I.!~)("ii)(51000)(Gl'IH)(GI\H)(!lOOO)(GI\H)(er'H)(S1000)(uoe ,)($1000) 1'194 0.9357 27.0 25.l 1325.8 2'1'17.0 211011.2 830!l8.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 ',0 811414.6 19~5 -O.~755 2&5.0 c~2.0 12175.5 3058.0 2~77.2 7932&.2 397.0 3117.6 10298.4 j,O 101800.2 ,199&O.,~192 &80.05.'>7.0 29233.1 3058.0 2505.0 74223.11 397.0 325.2 9635.9 J,O__l,I_3_0_9_2~,---,"9-r---o.Tii~--b3jf~o~--~~2i~----tt352;1>---305il'~-o--2343-;r--b-Clull8;8---391~-il--jiiii:3----90-16.1 '~-O 105817.11 1998,O~1172 950.0 ~~1.3 35755.0 6057.0 113113.9 128708.Cl 397.0 284.7 8436.~,,0 172900.0 -1999:'0,&,710 -1035~0 t '1 c4.5 3/J1I(.I8.3 ~057.(l UObU.1I 120429,'11 785.0 526,8 -15b07.9 ').Q 1721185,6 2000 0.b279 1231.0 )'72,9 405~2,O b~57,O 3803.~112&82.5 785.0 492.~1~&03,9 ~,o 167848.3 2001 0,5675 1347.0-7091,3 1115.,29.1 b057.0 3558,3 105433,9 H5.0 4&1,2 -136bll.5 1 :;,11 160642.8 2002 0.5497 1347,0 7 ....0.11 3~7,6 6057,0 3329 ..4 -911651,6 785.0 431",5,12785.,5 2,5~__:s.(l:-,,!528117.7----~-b3'~19;-O--'-----------------aTf9lJJ';1i --,,-,'.--941)118"",2 25~"'!;;/iTldlllli.,.-o- ----_.._---_..-----_..,._._.._--_.-------~-------".------"._----"1 __..."._-__ 5: 6.-------....__.__.__...---"',---.---_._..._-.._._-_.__..._._.__...._....._._......_--_."-_._----_.._.-----.-_.--_._---_._.---._-_.-------,--_._---'._- 2003 20~1I 7.Q766 13117,0 lo7~.,5 ,__PRESE rlT __I'IDRTH_B_E"I~F.:.u S ----- Ul 0- Ul CRF'=_,,O •.!tb88 _AV 0\'/'(Be'lEf'ITS 56l869,Q 6057,0 118314.21431550.7 785,0 6261,6 185532,0 370~."l 2217999,8 --.-~::_::;:;---~-~,~,,-~---~~~--~_:-_._-----~::::_:::::==---=-~~-~-~!-~--~-~:;:_::-~-~--~!;::::_-~:::;;::;~, ---------------- .._._-_._----_._-,--------_.•......------------- !?~.llZ.a_l~_857~Zl!_h....U14.!!825.lL._..:....._'__ CAPACITY VALUE =52.118000~/K.-YRE'IIEHGY VALUE =2Cl,b3000'IILLS/KriH,'--------,-------'-------,-------,-------- ,_SEclmoARy _VALUE~-29,b3000"'n_I"S/l<_"J:l~_,~-- __INTEwEST RATE =0.06875:,_1 ~_~"_ CAPACITY ENERGY SFCONDARY INTE'~ST ;;__)_5_2"q8_29,b>:2_9',i>3 0>..0f>8L5"~-------_--:-_____________ _ .,1 " _SYSTE"4 DF DEVELOPlotENT "",CAPACITY ENERGY SECONOARY __JOTALS.~~_"_O~iE~__"~l---'£::l-.._JNJ~~~_$.T.'IE·i SYSTE'"'--.,-----------------------,-----------------------------~--------------.,-..,--..--,- _~~-~~~~-~~~--D-R-O~1-F'-~S%A'IO 5%INF'L_~:rr"_'.iI_'_'O"'II/~_ ,,-----"---~'---._"-----------...---._---'-'--'"--.--._------_.---_.-----._-----------_._---------- ..•..".---,-._•.-._-_.-_.__..._-_....._-_.__.-....-._._--_._-_.._--------._---_._._._....•_-----------_._...-...__..----------- " ~: ~••_•••0 __'-_.••••_ 2;----- ...__._._-------_.----_.--_._.-_..--"._--_..,.'-------_.._._-_._----------------_.-----._.. -------._~::~":=:::::_.-.._.-.:..---------_:.."....'.:'::::::::~-_.~.-..--""""'- -----------,-.__._-.--'.._-----'. _~--'-_=l:.::O...:.W LOAD GROWTH,0%GIfOlIITH AFTEA POL ..._._.- ,,.:;:.u\---,••;..;;:A ,--;r-;: ---------PRESENT---·---··---PRE.SE,;,T---·-~-,..ARKETAHLCPI<ESEtH WORTH ~ARKETA~LE WORTH OF CAPACITY FIR~~ORTH FIRM --..-.YEAR-"fAC TOH ...."C"APAC Hy'-CAPAC It Y llPllF ITS EI~ERGY ENERr.y ~------------------ ----------_....."u ...'Il.,(;,.....' fIRM 'MARKEtAR(E'-'~RESE~T ·SEtON~.~Y-I~TEqAUP ENERGY SECONDARY WORT~SEC ENERGY CAPACITY TOTAL BENEFITS ENERGY ENER~Y BENEFiTS 'BENEFITS llENEFITS UI 0- 0- --- 2013 "Z0911----Zf~oq3-4-·---iOIl5.0 --0277 .b-798TI'9~~--60sr:o-2Ifi93;9---3'i63b9~-6-'-785~O-"'--3ii3~j'-'-'41oo2~-2------o-;il 11<;51191.1 ...!~E_S.E_~.I..._WJ~RTH BENEFIT!!.-...2127935.3 992008.9 6927t..~.__~.•.Q_3189,pS.7 CRF:0.0666 AV ANN BENEFITS E 146485.3 6B289.1 11168.6 0.0 219?43.0 CAPACITY ENERGY SECO~DARY INTERRUPTABLE TOTAL~_ -_._-_._---- 219543.o.47b9.11164115.b8289. CAPACITY VALUE =186.58000S/KW-YR ENERGY 'VALiJE'-i:''-f2~-7&OOOMji:[s-iK"-W-;-;-H----- SECO~nAqy VALUE:12.16000MILLS/KWH INTEREST RATE :0.06875 1 .CAPACITY ENERGY StCO~OAHY·INTE.RtST 1 18&.58 12.7&12.7&0.0&875T--'--....---.--._-..-._-.--..-.--..--.-..-.----.-_--.---.--..----..------.-..----.----.--- SYSTE~OF DEVELOPMENT NEW SYSTE~ ~OW LOAD GRO~TH,0%GROWTH AFTfR POL NEw SWSTE~'. _..~--_._-_._--~_.._._-...-_._------------_.-----------_.__._---...__.-.-----..-.... TABLE C-6-1 INVESTMENT COST WITH 2 YEARS CONSTRUCTION DELAY (in thousands of dollars) Watana Devil Canyon Gravity Dam Accumulated Present Worth Accumulated Present Worth Year Expenditure Expenditure IDC Expenditure of Expenditure Expendi ture IDC of IDC 1984 30.500 1.048 1985 107.000 30.500 5.775 1986 114.000 137.500 13.372 1987 159.000 251.500 22.756 ..... 1988 214.500 410.500 35.595 ':z <: 1989 208.000 625.000 50.119 lTl (/) 1990 230.000 833.000 65.175 '"-I3:1991 245.000 1.063.000 91.503 ~IlTl 1992 223,000,1.308.000 97.591 -I X::z: 1993 161.000 1.531.000 110.791 n ..... '"0 tp 0-1994 32.000 1.692.000 117,425 39.000 39,000 1.341 1.341 (/)..... .-1 -I'I 1995 25.000 1.724.000 119.384 98.500 98.500 39.000 6.067 6.067 ~·IC(,1996 16.000 1.749.000 120.794 117.000 117.000 137.500 13.475 13.475 oj 10'\ 1997 1.765.000 1.765.000 851.328 137.000 128.187 254.500 23.581 22.064 n'c= 1998 144.000 126.070 391 .500 38.191 33.436 0~1999,158.000 129.428 ,535.500 43.622 35.734 ..... 2000 129.500 99.258 693.500 53.505 41.010 0:z 823.000 737.443 823.000 179.784 153.127 (/) 1 Watana Devil Canyon Total Watana &Devil Canyon Construction Cost $1.765.000 $737.443 $2.502.443 I.D.C.851.328 153.127 1.004.455 Investment Cost $2.616.328 $890.570 $3.506,898 Interest and Amortization $180.106 $61,307 $241,413 Operation,Maintenance.and Replacement 2.620 700 3.320 Average Annual Cost $182.726 $62.007 $244.733 TABLE C-6-2 INVESTMENT COST WITH 8%DISCOUNT RATE (in thousands of dollars) I Watana Devil Canyon Gravity Dam Accumul a·ted Present Worth Accumulated Present Worth Year.Expenditure Expenditure IDC Expendi ture of Expendjtur_~Expenditure IDC of IDC 1984 30.500 1.220 1985 107.000 30.500 6.720 1986 114.000 137.500 15.560 1987 159.000 251.500 26.480 1988 218.500 410.500 41.580 1989 214,000'629,000 58,920 1990 248.000 843,000 77 ,360 1991 258,000 1.091,000 97,600 UI 1992 223.000 1.349.000 116,840 39,000 39,000 1,560 1.560 0-1993 .161.•000 1,572,000 132,200 ---98,500 98,500 39,000 7.060 7,060CD 1994 32,000 1,}33,000 139,920 117,000 .117.000 137,500 15,680 15.680 1995 1.765,000 1,765,000 714,400 137.000 126.852 254,500 25,840 23.926 1996 144,000'123,457 391,500 37.080 31.790 1997 158,000 125,425 535~500 49,160 39.025 1998 129,500 95,186 693.500 60,660 44,587 823.000 725,420 823.000 197,040 ]63,628 Watana Devil Canyon Total Watana &Devil Canyon Construction Cost $1,765,000 $725,420 $2,490,420 I.D.C.714,400 163,628 878.028 Investment Cost $2.497,400 $889,048 $3,368,448 Interest and Amortization $198,442 $71,156 $269,598 Operation,Maintenance,and .Replacement 2,620 700 3,320 Average Annual Cost $201,062 $71,856 $272,918 ..._.._-_._...--------------",. TABLE C-6-3 INVESTMENT COST WITH 5%DISCOUNT RATE (in thousands of dollars) Watana Devil Canyon Gravity Dam $1,765,000 446,476 $2,211,476 $-T14,-0lJ.l 2,620 $111 ,421 Present Worth of IDCIDC 39,000 39,000 975;975 98,500 98,500 ,39,000 4,413 4,413 117 ,000 117,000 137,500 9,800 9,800 137,000 130,476 254,500 19,575 18,643 144,000 130,612 391 ,500 23,175 21,020 158,000 136,486 535,500 30,725 26,541 129,500 106,540 693,500 37,913 31 ,191 823,000 758,614 823,000 126,576 112,583 ,Devil Canyon Total Watana &Deyil Canyon $758,614 $2,523,614' 112~583 '"559,059 $871,197 $3,0.82,673 $43,894 $155,315 700 3,320 $44,594 $158,635 Present Worth Accumulated Expenditure of Expenditure ExpenditureIDC 763 4,200 9,725 16~550 25,988 36,800 48,350 61,000 73,025 82,625 87,450 446,476 'Watana 30,500 137,500 251,500 410,500 629,000 843,000 1,091,000 1,349,000 1,572,000 - '1,733,000 1,765,000 Accumulated Expendi ture Construction Cost 1.D.C. Investment Cost Interest and Amortization Operation,Maintenance,and Replacement Average Annual Cost Year Expenditure 1984 30,500 1985 107,000 1986 114,000 1987 159,000 1988 218,500 1989 214,000 1990 248,000 1991 258,000 UI 1992 ,223,000 0-,1993 161,000-0 1994 32,000 1995 1,76.5 ~,OOO 1996 ,1997 1998 TABLE C-6-4 INVESTMENT COST WITH ARCH DAM AT DEVIL CANYON (in thousands of dollars) Watana Devil Canyon Gravity Dam .Accumulated Present Worth Accumulated Present Worth Year Expenditure Expenditure IDC Expenditure of Expenditure EXpendi tOre IDe of IDC 1984 30,500 1,04B 1985 107,000 30,500 5,775 1986 114,000 137,500 13,372 1987 159,000 251,500 22,756 1988 218,500 410,500 35,733 1989 214,000 629,000 5.0,600 1990 248,000 843,000 66,481 1991 258,000 1,091,000 83,875 UI 1992 223,000 1,349,000 100,409 ·32,500 32,500 1,117 1,117 1993 161,000 1,572,000 113,609 -61,000 32,500 4,331 4,331.....61 ,0000199432,000 1,733,000 120,244 87,000 87,000 93,500 9,419 9,419 1995 1,765,000 1,765,000 613,902 113,000 105,731 180,500 16,294 15,246 1996 122,000 106,809 203,500 24,372 21,337 1997 148,500 121,646 415,500 33,670 27,581 1998 101,000 77,41.3 564,000 42,247 32,381 665,000 592,009 665,000 131,449 111,412 Watana Devil Canyon Total Watana &Devil Canyon Construction Cost $1,765,000 $592,099 $2,357,099 . I.D.C.613,902 111',412 725,314' Investment Cost $2,378,902 $703,511 $3,082,413 Interest and Amortization $163,761 $48,429 $212,190 Operation,Maintenance,and Replacement 2,620 700 3,320 Average Annual Cost $166,381 $49,129 $215,510 EXHIBITC-7CORRESPONDENCE.FEDERALENERGYREGULATORYCOMMISSIONREGIONALOFFICE555BATTERYSTREET.ROOM415SANFRANC:aSCO•.CA94111October31.1978ColonelGeorgeR.RobertsonDistrictEngineerAlaskaDistrict.CorpsofEngineers'P.O.Box7002Anchorage.Alaska99510DearColonelRobertson:ThisisinresponsetoyourletterofApril14.1978,inwhichyourequestedupdatedpowervaluesfor-use;nyourstudiesoftheUpperSusitnaRiverBasin.Weregretthatwewerenotabletoprovidethevaluesearlier.AttachedTablesIthroughVIgivedetailsofourestimates.AtMr.Mohn'ssuggestion,anannualcapacityfactorof50percentwasassumedfortheUp-perSusitnaBasinprojects..Atyourrequest,wehaveprovidedabreakdownofourcostestimatesinorderthatyourstaffmaymakesensitivityanalysesoftheeffectsof.possib1einflationofa"componentsoftheestimatesincludingfuel{;ostescalation.Powervaluesareprov,idedbasedonestimatedcostsofpowerfromtwop.ossiblealternativethermalsourcesforboththeAnchorage-KenaiandFairbanksareas.Anoil-firedcombinedcycleplant,locatednearAnchorage,andamine-mouth.coal-firedsteam-electricgeneratingplantlocatedneartheBelugacoalfieldsareconsideredasalternativestohydropowerfortheAnchorage-Kenaiarea.FortheFairbanksarea,anoil-firedregenerativecombustionturbineplantnearFairbanksandamine-mouthcoal-firedsteam-electricplantarebelievedtobetheproperalternativepowersources.~p.combinedcycleplantalternativewasnot.studied'forFairbanksbecauseofitsassociated"icefogging"problemsandproximitytopopulatedcenters.Ourestimatesindicatethatthecombined-cycleplantnearAnchorageandtheregenerativecombustionturbineplantnearfairbanks,>respectively,aretheleastcostlysourcesofpoweralternativeto.hydroelectric.However,wearenotabletostatethateitheristhemostprobablesource.Asyouknow,thereissignificantspeculationwithrespecttothepracticalandeconomicfeasibilityofthedevelopmentofacoalmine571 intheBelugaareatoservearelativelysmallcoal-firedsteam-electricplant.Tobefeasible,itisprobablethatthefieldmustbedevelopedtoprovidecoalforexportinlargequantities,orforaddedlocaluse.Itisnotreadilyapparenttousthatcoalwillbeavailablenear,termtofuelaplantintheBelugaarea.Wehave,nevertheless,includ'edapowervaluebasedontheexistenceofsuchaninstallationinourestimates.CoalisreadilyavailableintheHealyfieldnearFairbanks.GoldenValleyElectricAssociation,Inc.hascontractedforaconsultant'sstudyofthepotentialofinstallingadditionalcoal-firedgenerationtoitssystem.Coal-firedgeneration,according'toourestimates,however,wouldbesignificantlymorecostlythanthatfromaregenera-tiveoil-firedcombustionturbine.TheNationalEnergyActgenerallyprohibitstheuseOfoilornaturalgasasfuelinlarge-scalebaseloadgeneratingplants.However,theActalsoincludesmanyprovisionsunderwhichautilitymaybeexemptedfromtherestrictionsonuseofoil.Exemptionsmaybeobtainedbecauseofunavailabilityofcoal,highcostofcoalandassociatedfacilities,sitelimitations,environmentalrequirements,and,mostimportantly,'ifther~quireduseofcoalwouldnotallowthepetitionertoobtainadequate,capital.forthefinancingofsuchapowerplant.Undoubtedly,rulesregarding'theabovewillbeprescribedandinterpretationsoftheActwillbemadebyproperauthority.careshouldbeexercisedintheselectionofprobablealternativepowersourcesbecauseoftheseexemptionprovisions.Wesuggestthat'inquiriesbemadeofthe,inten-tionsoflocalutilityofficialsregardingpossiblerequestsforexemptionstotheuseofcoalinlieuofother-fuelsinlightofthehighinve~tment~ostofcoal-firedplants.Pursuanttooneofyourrequests,associatedinvestmentcostsofpollutfoncontrolequipmentincludedinthetotalinvestmentcostsforcoa1.-firedplantsaregiVenbelow.Thesecostsincludeindirectsandoverheadsaswellasinterestduringcon'struction.,.(1)(2)EstimatesoffutureloadsaresuppliedtheFERConFPCForm12E-2bythefourprincipalutilitiesoperatinginFairbanks'andAnchorage.Theseestimatesshowthatin1988approximately80percentofthe'total572 electricneedsoftheso-called"railbeltarea"~illbeintheAnchorage-Kenaiareaand20percentintheFairbanksarea.ThisdivisionofrequirementswouldprobablybeausefulguideinyourallocationofUpperSusitnaprojectsoutput.TheseestimatesofpowervaluesaresubjecttotheapprovalofourWashingtonOffice.Ifwecanbeoffurtherassistance,pleaseadvise.Verytrulyyours,Attachments573 TABLEIAnnualFixedChargeRatesAnchorage-KenaiMarketAreaGeneratingStationsandSubstations\SteelTowerTransmission~inesServiceLife,yearsREAFinancingCostofMoneyDepreciation(SinkingFund)InsuranceTaxesTotal,FixedChargesUse30%8.5000.8050.2500.3509.9059.916.2501.2100.2501.3009.0109.017.432.259.68.6.8751.0837.9587.9650%8.500O.~460.1000.350·9~0969.106.2500.3170.1001.3007.9677.976.821.998.816.8750.2577.1327.131/Basedonappro:x:imateproportionoftotalfuture·loadsinAnchorage-KenaiMarketAreq.2/Omittedatrequest"ofNPD~CorpsofEngineers.574 AnnualFixedChargeRatesFairbanksMarketAreaTABLEIIServiceLife.YearsPublic-nonfederalFinancing11CostofMoneyDepreciation(SinkingFund)InsuranceTaxesTotaf,·FixedCharges.UseGeneratingSteelTowerStationsandTransmissionSubstationsLines3050%%5.7505.7501.3220.3740.2500.2507.3226.3747.326.37FederalFinancingCostofMoneyDepreciatiRIJ(SinkingFund)InsuranceY.Tota1,FbedChargesUse6.8751.0837.9587.966.8750.2577.1327.131/AlaskaPObJeroAuthozoityfinancingassumed.2/OmittedatroequestofNPD~CoropsofEngineeros.575 TABLEIIIHydroelectricPlantPowerValuesAtMarketAnchorage-KenaiArea(Costsasof7/1/78)A.PlantDescriptionCapacityUnitSizeServiceLifeHeatRateFuelCostAnnualPlantFactorMWMWYearsBtu/kWhtllo6Btu%Coal-firedGeneratingPlant450225301000011055FinancingPub.-nonfed.l!FederalB.InvestmentCost$/kW12401220$lkW-yr•.120.0397.110.910.7514.6914.695.655.65mills/kWhC.AnnualCapacityCostatPlantFixedChargesFuelInventoryFixedO&MAdministrativeandGeneralAnnualCapacityCostatGeneratorBusD.EnergyCostFuelVariableO&MEnergyCostsatGeneratorBus576141.2811.001.6412.64118.2011.001.6412.64 Coal-firedGeneratingPlantFina n ci"SPub.-nonfed.Federal~-yr~-- -mills/kWhTABLEIII(cont'd.)HydroelectricPlantPowerValuesAtMarketAnchorage-KenaiArea(Costsasof7/1/73).E.CostofThermalPlantOutputatGeneratorBusF.PlanttoMarketThermalPlantTransmissionCosts-230kVl.Step-upsubstation(a)Fixedcharges(b)O&MandAdm.&Gen.2.TransmissionLines(a)Fixedcharges(b)O&MandAdm.&Gen.3.ReceivingStation(a)Fixedcharges(b)O&MandAdm.&Gen.4.Losses~~~CapacityEnergyG.CostofThermalPowerDeliveredatMarket141.28118.2012.64 TABLEIVHydroelectricPlantPowerValuesAtMarketAnchorage-KenaiArea(Costsas~f7/1/78)A.PlantDescriptionCapacityUnitSizeServiceLifeHeatRateFuelCost,'Oi1AnnualPlantFa~torMWMWYearsBtu/kWh¢/l06Btu%CombinedCycleGeneratingPlant420105'30835030050Financing~.Pub.-nonfed.]jFederalB.InvestmentCost$/kW360355$/kW-yr.mills/kWhC.AnnualCapacityCostatPlantFixedChargesFu~lInventoryFixedO&M2/AdministratlveandGeneralAnnualCapacityCostatGeneratorBusD.EnergyCostFuelO&MEnergyCostsatGeneratorBus57834.851.913.2039.9625.051.8326.8828.261.583.2033.0425.051.8326.88 TABLEIV(cont'd.)HydroelectricPlantPowerValuesAtMarketAnchorage-KenaiArea(Costsasof7/1/78)CombinedCycleGeneratingPlantF1nanc1n9Pub.-nonfed.Federal- - -$/kW-yr~--,-mills/kWh26.8839.9633.04E.CostofThennal,PlantOutputatGeneratorBus1.331.080.280.280.810.650.190.190..190.160.040.042.301.891.02F.PlanttoMarketThermalPlantTransmissionCosts-'138kV1.Step-upsubstation(a)Fixedcharges(b)O&MandAdm.&Gen.2.TransmissionLines(a)Fixedcharges(b)O&MandAdm.&Gen.3.Receiv'ingStation(a)Fixedcharges(b)O&MandAdm.&Gen.4.Losses(a)capacity(b)EnergyG.CostofThermalPowerDeliveredatMarket1.Capacity2.EnergyH.Hydro-thermalCapacityandEnergyValueAdjustments1.Capacity2.EnergyY.ValueofHydroPlantOutputDelivere~atMarket.1.Capacity2.Energy1/R~~~7b%;MUnicipaZ,25%.2/IncZudedinenergycost.yNegLigible.45.102.2647.3637.331.8739.2027.9027.90579 TABLEVHydroelectricPlantPowerValuesAtMarketFairbanks,Alaska(Costsasof7/1/78)A.P1antDescri~tioncapacity.UnitSizeServiceLifeHeatRateFuelCostAnnualPlantFactorMWMWYearsBtu/kWh1t/106Btu%Coal-firedGeneratingPlant23011530105008055FinancingPub.-nonfed.17Federal----..-........----B.InvestmentCost$/kW14751510C.AnnualCapacityCostatPlantFixedChargesFuelInventoryFixedO&M.AdministrativeandGeneral$/kW-yr.107,.970.4816.296.68-120.200.5716.296.68143.74AnnualCapacityCostatGeneratorBusD.EnergyCost.FuelVariableO&MEnergyCo:tsatGeneratorBus580131.42mills/kWh8.401.8210.228.401.8210.22 TABLEV(~ontld.)Hydroel~ctricPlantPowerValuesAtMarketFairba~ksjAlaska(Costsas0'7/1/78)_______-2.-:..;;~~....:...:..~_Coal-firedGeneratingPlantFtnan c i n gPub.-nonred.Federal---$/kW-yr.---mills/kWhE.CostofThermalPlantOutputatGeneratorBus.F.PlanttoMarketThermalPlantTransmissionCosts-230kv1.Step-upsubstation(a)FiXedcharges.(b)O&MandAdm.&Gen.2.TransmissionLines(a);Fixedcharges(b)·O&MandAdm.&Gen.3.ReceivingStation(a)Fixedcharges(b)O&MandAdm~&Gen.4.Losses(a)Capac:ity(b)EnergyG.CostofThermalPowerDeliveredatMarket1.Capac:ity2.Energy.H.Hydro..therma1.CapacityandEnergxValueAdjustriients1.Capacity.2.EnergyI.Va1ueofH,ydroPlantOutputDeliveredatMarket1.Capacity2.Energy.131.42161.7816.18177.96143.74176.9310.2210.64-2110.641/ALaskaP(Jb)erAuthorityfinancingas8W1led.2/NegUgibZe.581 TABLEVIHydroelectricPlantPowerValuesAtMarketFairbanks,Alaska(Costsasof7/1/78)A.PlantDescriptionCapacityUnitSiteServiceLifeHeatRateFuelCost,OilAnnualPlantFactorMWMWYearsBtu/kWh¢/l06Btu%Regen.CombustionTurbinePlant24060301000021050FinancingPub.-nonfed.l!FederalB.InvestmentCost$/kW'265270C.AnnualCapacityCostatPlant$/kW-yr.FixedCharges19.4021.49FuelInventory1.091.30FixedO&M2/AdministrativeandGeneral2.082.08AnnualCapacityCostat22.57GeneratorBus24.87D.EnergyCostmi11s/kWhFuel.21.0021.00O&M1.191.19EnergyCostsatGeneratorBus22.1922.19582 TABLEVI(cont'd.)HydroelectricPlantPowerValuesAtMarketFairbanks,Alaska(Costsasof7/1/78)Regen.CombustionTurbinePlantF inan c i n9Pub.-nonfed.Federal- - -$7kW-yr.-- -mills/kWhE.CostofThermalPlantOutputatGeneratorBus...22.5724.8722.19F.PlanttoMarketThermalPlantTransmissionCosts-;138kV1.Step-upsubstation(a)Fixedcharges.(b)O&MandAdm.&Gen.2.TransmissionLines(a)Fixedcharges(b)O&MandAdm.&Gen.3.ReceivingStation(a)Fixedcharges(b)O&MandAdm.&Gen.4.Losses~~~~~~~~~tyG.CostofThermalPowerDeliveredatMarket1-Capacity28.8231.692.Energy·23.00H.Hydro-thermalCapacityandEnergyyalueAdjustments1-Capacity1.44 1.582.Energy-yI.ValueofHydroPlantOutputDeliveredatMarket1.Capacityv30.2633.272.Energy23.001/AZaskaPowerAuthorityfinancingassumed.2/IncZudedinenergycost.3/NegZigibZe.583 •DepartmentofEnergyAlaskaPowerAdministrationP.O.Box50'Juneau,Alaska99802November9,1918FROM:SUBJECT:MEXQRANOOMFOREUGENENEBLETT,REGIONJ1..LENGINEERFEDERlU.ENERGYREmJIATORYCOMMISSIONROBERT.J'.CROSS,ADMINISTRATOR.,'~.":/',/~:.::/.<~\L.t£'..../.J..<,,~.;/~,•~ALTERNJ'.TlVEPCMERSOOBCE'3FORTHERAILBEL'1'ColonelRobertson'soffioesentusaaopyofyourOCtober31memorand~explainingyourassumptionsonlikelyalternativestoUpper,susitnapowerfortheAnchorageandFairl:>a.nksareas.Iamnotintunewiththesuggestionthatoil-firedplant$maybe,arealisticalternativeforthe1,500MWUpperSus1tnaProje9t.,:ManyutilitiesinAlaska.andotherpartsofthecountrywillcon't:inuetheirpushfor,moraandmoreexemptionstoallowcontinueduseofoilandg&Sinbothexistingandnewplants.Howsuccessfultheywillbeandforhowlongisconjecture.I\lEPlegislationthisyeardoes,asyourletterpointsout,providearanqeofexenptions.We'velookedatthesameissuesasapartofourreportonmarketabilityoftJ);>perSusitnaPQWer•OUrfindingisthattheexemptionsdonItseemallthatpermanentorpertinentintermsofalargenewhydroproject""comingonlinein,1992.'..IjustdOD't888thelogicoftheoilassumptioninbenefitdetermin.-atioDaforlOO-yearsofpowerfromamajornewhydroproject.co:LColonelfebertson._.RobertVo1k,OPMC584 333WEST4thAVENUE-SUITE31-ANCHORAGE,ALASKA99501Phone:(907)277-7641(907)276-2715November17,1973ColonelGeorgeRobertsonU.S.ArmyCorpsofEngineersAlaskaDistrictPostOfficeBox7002Anchorage,Alaska99510DearColonelRobertson:IhavereviewedthematerialprovidedbytheFederalEnergyRegulatoryCommission(FERC),associatedwiththeUpperSusitnastudypowervalues.Ifeelthatoil-firedgenerationasanalternativetoSusitn~hydroelectricmustbequestioned.Oil-firedgenerationfornewplantsinAnchorageandFairbankswillrequireexemptionsfromtheSecretaryofEnergyfromtheprovisionsofthePowerplantandIndustrialFuelUseActof1978.TheabilityofAnchorageandFairbankstoqualifyfortheexemptionstomeetpeakloadrequirementsisdoubtful.DuetolimitedrefiningcapabilityinAlaska,distillatefueloilrequirementsby1990wouldrequireamajorexpansionofrefiningcapabilitiesinAlaska.Withoutexpan-siontheutilitieswillimportdistillatefuelandpayassociatedhightransportationcosts.Therefore,oil-firedgenerationfortherailbeltareamaynotbeacceptableeitherforlegalandregu-latoryreasonsorfromthestandpointoffuelavailability.Thecostoffuelforoil-firedgenerationisanareathatisnotadequatelyaddressedintheeconomicanalysisofhydroelectricalterhativesbythefederalgover~ment.TheprovisionofpowervaluesbyFERCandthesubsequentpresentworthanalysisofalter-nativepowergenerationisinsensitivetoNationalEnergyPolicyandtheinelasticcommoditydemandofnon-renewableresourcessuchasdistillatefuel.Ifeelthattheeconomicanalysisofthealternativesmustbesensitivetotheseconsiderationsbyappraisingthetruecostsofenergytotheconsumeroverafiftyyeartimeframewiththecapitalintensivenatureoffacilities,theeconomiclifeoffacilities,andtheproj~ctedcostoffueltakenintoaccount.Th~eGoldenValleyElectricCooperativein.Fairbankshasrecentlystudiedthecoalvs.oil-firedgenerationquestionforthenextadditiontoGVEAls~aseloadcapacity.GVEAhasdeterminedthatthecoalfiredgenerationalt~rnativeispre-ferabletooil....585 Ihop~thesecommentswillassisttheCorpsofEngineersintheapplicationofUpperSusitnapowervaluesinthesupplementalfeasibilitystudiescurrentlyinprogress.Thankyouforth~opportunitytocomment.~~.~EricP.YO"l~ExecutiveDirector586 SECTIONDFOUNDATIONANDMATERIALSTABLEOFCONTENTSItemSUMMARYOFCHANGESChangestothe1976InterimFeasibilityReportChangesinDesignREGIONALGEOLOGYPhySiographyInferredGeologicHistoryRegionalTectonicsSeismicityRockandSoilUnitsRockStructureDEVILCANYONSeismicRefractionSurveyMaterialRequirementsWATANASITEScopeofInvestigationsFieldReconnaissanceTestPitsSeismicRefractionInvestigationsInstrumentationSiteGeologyIntroductionFoundationConditionsValleyWallConditionsRelictChannelSpillwayPermafrostGroundWaterReservoirGeologyDamDesignDamFoundationTreatmentEmbankmentDesignPowerhouseandUndergroundStructuresIntakeStructure.SpillwaySeepageControl,RelictChannel587Page592592592595595595597597598599601601601603603603603604604608608609610612613614615616617617618620620621621 TABLEOFCONTENTS(cant)ItemConstructionMaterialsMaterialRequirementsSourcesofMaterialsGeneralRockShellCoreMateria1FilterMaterialsConcreteAggregatesGradationEnvelopesLISTOFCHARTS.Page622622622622622624625626Number0-10-20-30-40-50-60-70-80-90-100-110-120-130-140-150-160-17TitleSoilsGradationEnvelope-BorrowAreaETestPits1through5SoilsGradationEnvelope-BorrowArea0TestPits8through19GradationEnvelopes-BorrowAreaESuperimposedonFineFilterGradationEnvelopes-FineFilterandImperviousCoreGradationEnvelopes-CoarseFilterandBorrowAreaEGradationCurve-CompositeSampleNo.1GradationCurve-CompositeSampleNo.2SpecificGravityandPermeabilityReportCompactionTestReport-MethodACompactionTestReport-Method0TriaxialCompressionTestReportI-QTest,CompositeSampleNo.1,3.5%W.C.TriaxialCompressionTestReportII-QTest,CompositeSampleNo.1,7.5%W.C.TriaxialCompressionTestReportIII-QTest,CompositeSampleNo.1,11.5%W.C.TriaxiaiCompressionTestReportIV- RTest,CompositeSampleNo.1,7.5%W.C.TriaxialCompressionTestReportIV-BackPressure'andPorePressureTestDataTriaxialCompressionTestReportV-RTest,CompositeSampleNo.1,3.5%W.C.TriaxialCompressionTestReportV-BackPressureandPorePressureTestData588628629630631632633634635636637638639640641642643,644 Number0-180-190-200-210-220-230-240...250-260-270-280-29Number0-10-20-30-40-50-60-70-80-90-100-110-120-130-140-150-160-170-180-190-200-210-22LISTOFCHARTS(cont)TitleConsolidationTestReportIConsolidationTestI -TimeCurves'.,.1,2,4,8tonsConsolidationTestI -TimeCurves.-16,32tonsConsolidationTestReportIIConsolidationTestII-TimeCurves-1,2,4,8tonsConsolidationTestII-TimeCurves-16,32tonsConsolidationTestReportIIIConsolidationTestIII-TimeCurves-1,2,4,8tonsConsolidationTestIII-TimeCurves-16.32tonsConsolidationTestReportIVConsolidationTestIV-TimeCurves-1,2,4,8tonsConsolidationTestIV-TimeCurves-16,32tonsLISTOFPLATESTitleDevilCanyon-SitePlanandExplorationsWatanaOamsite-ExplorationPlanWatanaOamsite-SurficialGeology-WestSheetWatanaOamsite-SurficialGeology-EastSheetWatanaReservoir-SurficialGeologyWatanaOamsite-StereographicProjectionsWatanaDam-SectionAlongDamAxisWatanaEmbankment-PlanViewWatanaEmbankment-SectionAWatanaOarilsite-QuarrySourceAWatanaOamsite-QuarrySourceBandBorrowArea0WatanaOamsite-BorrowAreaEGroundTemperatureDataIGroundTemperatureDataIIGroundTemperatureDataIIIPiezometerDataIPiezometerDataIIPiezometerDataIIIWatanaOamsite-BorrowAreaE;Logs:TestPits1through5WatanaOamsite-BorrowAreaC&D;Logs:TestPits7through14.WatanaOamsite-BorrowArea0;Logs:TestPits15through22WatanaOamsite-BorrowAreaF;Logs:TestPits6and23through26589Page645646647648649650651652653654655656 Number0-230-240-250-260-270-280-290-300-310-320-330-340-350-360";370-380-390-400-410-420-430-440-45LISTOFPLATES(cont)TitleWatanaOamsite-BorrowArea0;Logs:AugerHoles1through6WatanaOamsite-BorrowArea0;Logs:AugerHoles6(cont)through9WatanaOamsite-BorrowArea0;Logs:AugerHoles9(cont)through14WatanaOamsite-BorrowArea0;Logs:AugerHoles15through22WatanaOamsite-BorrowArea0;Logs:AugerHoles23through24OrillHoleLogsNo.1;OH-lthroughOH-4OrillHoleLogsNo.2;OH-4(cont)throughOH-7OrillHoleLogsNo.3;OH-8throughOH-10DrillHoleLogsNo.4;OH-10(cont)throughDH-l2DrillHoleLogsNo.5;DH-12(cont)throughDR-15Drill·HoleLogsNo.6;OR-16throughDR~20OrillHoleLogsNo.7;OR-20(cont)throughDH~21DrillHoleLogsNo.8;DH-21(cont)andDR~22DrillHoleLogsNo.9;OR-22(cont)throughDR-26DrillHoleLogsNo.10;DR-27andDH-28WatanaDamsite-CorePhotosNo.1;OH-lthroughDH-4WatanaDamsite-CorePhotosNo.2:OH-5throughDH-6WatanaDamsite-CorePhotosNo.3;DH-7throughDH-9WatanaDamsite-CorePhotosNo.4;DH-9(cont)throughDH-llWatanaDamsite-CorePhotosNo.5;DH-ll(cont)throughDH-12WatanaDamsite-CorePhotosNo.6;D-15throughDR-20WatanaDamsite-CorePhotosNo.7;DH-2lWatanaDamsite-CorePhotosNo.8;DR-22throughDH-28590 EXHIBITSNumberTitle.0-1locationMapsandSeismicRefractionVelocityProfiles,WatanaandDevilCanyonOamsites.ByShannon&Wilson,Inc.GeologicalConsultants;ContractNo.OACW85-78-C-0027,November19780..2Report-ReconnaissanceoftheRecentGeologyoftheProposedOevil'sCanyonandWatanaOamsites,SusitnaRiver,Alaska.ByKachadoorian&HenryJ.Moore,U.S.GeologicalSurvey,November19780-3Report-EarthquakeAssessmentattheSusitnaProjectbyE.l.Krinitzsky,U.S.ArmyEngineerWaterwaysExperimentalStation,Vicksburg,Mississippi,10November19780-4TechnicalNote-ProcedureforEstimatingBoreholeSpacingandThawWaterPumpingRequirementsforArtificiallyThawingtheBedrockPermafrostattheWatanaOamsite.ByF.H.Sayles,U.S.ArmyEngineersColdRegionsResearchandEngineeringlaboratory,Hanover,NewHampshire,October19780-5OpenFileReport78-558-A,U.S.GeologicalSurvey-Reconnaissancegeologicmapandgeochronology,TalkeetnaMountains·Quadrangle,northernpartofAnchorageQuadrangle,andsouthwesternportionofHealyQuadrangle,AlaskabyCsejtey,etal1978591 SUMMARYOFCHANGESCHANGESTOTHE1976INTERIMFEASIBILITYREPORTIn1978,·TheAlaskaDistrict,CorpsofEngineers,performedaddi-tiona1fieldexplorationsandgeo1ogi·cstudiestoverifythefeasibilityoftheWatanadamsite.Asaresultofthesestudies,considerablymoreinformationisnowavailableconcerni"ngthesiteandtheregionalgeologyofthearea.Therefore,theentir~·sectionsonRegionalGeology,pages0-1throughD-9;WatanaSite,pages0-10through0-12;andtheparagraphonSeismologyatDevilCanyon,pageD...7,ofAppendix0,FoundationsandMaterials,ofthe1976InterimFeastbilityReportaredeletedandreplacedbythissupplementalreport.NochangestotheVeeCanyonandDenalisiteshavebeenmade.Plate0-3,Watana-SitePlanandCenterlineProfileisdeletedandreplacedwithreviseddrawings.Severa]newplatessho'winggeo10gicsectfons,borrowareas,andexplorationlogshavebeenadded.Thesearelistedinthei"ndex.CHANGESINDESIGNAsaresultoftheadditionalfieldexplorationandgeologicstudies,amoreknowledgeableassessmentoftheproposedprojectcannowbemade.Asummaryoftheitemswhichreflectchangestothe1976InterimFeasi-bilityReport,orreinforcethebasicconceptsofthatreportfollows.1.NothingwasfoundduringthisphaseofthestudytocastdoubtonthefeasibilityofadamattheWatanadamsite.Allexplorationandgeologicstudiesreinforcedtheconceptthatalargeearthandrockfi11oraconcretegravitydamcouldbebuiltinthisgeneralvicinity.2.DetailedsurveyswereperformedattheWatanasite.Itwasfoundthatthetopographyusedforthe1976reportwasinerrorbyapproximately15feet.Therefore,theelevationsshownontheplatesorsectionsinthissupplementare15feetlowerthanthoseshowninthe1976report.Thedetailedsurveyshowedthevalleysectiontobealittlewiderthanpreviouslyassumedandtherefore,thecrestlengthofthedamandthetotalquantitieswithin thedamaresomewhatlarger.3.Theexplorationsatthedamsiteindicatethattherockisasgoodorbetterthanpreviouslyassumed.Foundationrockisconsideredadequatetosupporteitheranearth-rockfi1lstructureoraconcretegravitydam.·Tosupportthisconclusion,.theregionalandsitegeologyaswellastherockstructurearediscussedinmuchgreaterdetailinthissupplementalreport.592 4.The1976reportrecognizedthattheWatanadamsiteisanareaofmarginal~ermafro~t.a~d,·therefore,permanentlyfrozengroundcouldbeex~ectedlnthevlclnlty•.Int~e.1978explorationprogram,sped'fic•10catl0nsofpermafrostwereldentlfledandanumberoftemperature•measuringdev~ceswereinstalled:Theearliera~sumptionthatperma-frostdoeseXls1;:overmuchofthlSareawasconfumed;however,itwasdeterminedthat,thisisavery"warm"permafrost,rangingfrom00Cto_10C.Preniafrostwasencountered'inbedrockinthe1e'ftabutmentofthedamanditseffectsonthegroutinginthisareaarediscussedinthissupplementalreport.Permafrostwasalsoencounteredintheimper-viousborrowarea;however,becauseofitsmarginaltemperature,ittendstobesoftandcanbeeasilyexcavated.Amoredetaileddis-cussioniscontainedinthebodyofthisreport.5.The1976reportenvisionedrather1argeamountsofgravela,vail-ableforconstructionoftheshellsofthedamandlimitedamountsofimperviouscorematerial.Therecentexplorationsindicatethatthisis,notthecasesincegravelsinlargequantitieswerenotverifiedbutla)rgequantitiesofimperviouscorematerialwerediscoverednearthedamsite.Becauseof.theapparentshortageofgravelandanexcessofimperviousmaterial..the'damsectionhasbeencompletelyrevised.Thegravelshellshavebeenchangedtorockshells~Thischangetorockfillhasa11owedtheuseofasomewhatsteeperslopeontheupstreamfaceofthedam.Alargeportionofthe·rockwillcomefromrequired,excavationofthespillway.Theremainderwillcomefromexcavationofundergroundfacilitiesandaccessroadsandfrom,alargeborrowsourceontheleftabutment.6.Thefoundationexcavationhasbeenincreasedtorequiretheentirefounda,ttonofthedamtobestrippedtobedrock.The1976reportenvisioned~xcavationtobedrockunderthecoreandfiltersonly.How-ever,becausetheevidenceofthelimiteddrillingperformedisincon-clusive,itwasconsideredadviseabletorequireremovalofinsitugravelsbeneaththeentireembankment.Ifadditionaldrillingsupportsalessconservativeapproach,thechangecanbemadeunderSUbsequentfeaturedesign.7.Thecorehasbeenwidenedsomewhatfromthatshowninthe1976reportandazoneofsemjperviousmaterial,approximatelyofthesamewidthasthecore,hasbeenadded.Thiswasdonebecauselargeamountsofsemiperviousmaterialareavailableandestimatesshowthatit.canbeplacedwithinthedamataconsiderablylowercostthantherockshellmaterial.Thetotalthickness'oftheseimperviousandsemiperviouszoneswasdeterminedbyconsideringtheireffectontotalstabilityofthedamandthedifficultiesofplacingmaterialswhichrequirecarefulmoisturecontrolinthearctlcenvironment.Laboratorytestsperformedon:t;hesematerialsindicatethatoptimummoisturewillbearather,criti-calfactorintheircompaction.Therefore,theuseofsuchmaterialshasbeenheldtowithinreasonablelimits.,593 8.The1976reportshowedaverticalaccessshafttothelow-leveldrainsystemwhichpassedthroughtheembankmentofthedam.Thishasnowbeenchangedtoatunnelthroughtherightabutment,therebyelimin-atinganystructuresinthedamembankment.9.Agroutgalleryhasbeenaddedtothelowerportionsofthedamtofacilitategroutingandtoaccommodatetheprocessofthawingthepermafrost.Useofthegallerywillallowembankmentplacementandcurtaingroutingtoproceedsimultaneously,resultinginashortenedconstructionschedule.Thegallerywillalsoprovideforuread.,;outllstationsforinstrumentation·;nthefoundationandlowerlevelsoftheembankmentandforgeneralaccess.10.Thespillwaylocationasshowninthe1976reporthasbeenshiftedsouthwesttoalocationwhi'chinsuresrockcutforitsentirelength.Therockandoverburdenmaterialfromthislargeexcavationwillbeutilizedinthedamembankment.11.The1976reportdiscussesapotentialproblemofseepagealongarelictchannelintherightabutment.The1978explorationsverifiedtheexistenceofthischannel;however,studiesindicatethatitisnot-aproblemand,therefore,noremedialactionisrequired~12.Thediverisontunnelportalshavebeenshiftedtoensuretheirlocationinreasonablysoundrock.13.ProfessionalservicesofEllisKrinitzskyoftheWaterwaysExperimentStationandReubenKachadoorianandHenryJ.MoorefromtheU.S.GeologicalSurveywereobtainedbycontracttoperformseismicstudiesandevaluatetheearthquakeriskatthesesites.Theirworkwasdividedintotwophases.KachadoorianandMooreofUSGSperformedthefieldreconnaissancetolookforactivefaultsandothergeologi:c::haza'rds.Krinitzsky'sworkwasaimedatassessingthepotentialearthquakes:whichcouldbeassociatedwithsuchfaulting.TheUSGSreportrecognizedthatthisisahighlyseismicregion;however,thegeologic reconnaissanceoftheproposedDevilCanyonandWatanadamsitesandreservoirsdidnotuncoverevidenceofrecentoractivefaultingalonganyoftheknownorinferredfaults.IntheirworktheydidnotuncoverevidenceoftheSusitnaFault,whichwaspreviouslythoughttoexjstashortdistancewestoftheWatanadamsite.Krinitzsky'sworkassessedthepossibleoccurranceofearthquakesatthedamsiteandthenlOtionsthatarelikelytobeassociatedwithearthqaukeactivity.Hisfindingsindicatethatthedesignoftheproposeddamstowithstandsuchactivityiswtthjnthestateoftheartofseismicdesign.14.InthefallofJ978,theconsultingfirmofShannon&WilsonwasengagedtoperformrefractionseismographworkatboththeWatanaandDevilCanyondamsites.Thisworksupplementedthedril'linginfor-mation.Thelocationmapsandseismicvelbcityproff'esfromtheShannon&WilsonreportareincludedasExhibit0-1tothisappendix.594 REGIONALGEOLOGYPHYSIOGRAPHYTheareaofstudyislocatedwithintheCoastalTroughProvinceofsouthcentralAlaska".TheSusitnaRiverisaglaciallyfedstreamwhichheadsonthesouthernslopesoftheAlaskaRange,andflowsbywayofacontinuouslywideningvalleytothetidewatersofCookInlet.Withintheupper200rivermiles,theSusitnapassesthroughavarietyoflandformsrelatedtothelithologyandgeologyoftheregion.FromitsproglacialchannelintheAlaskaRange,itpassesthroughabroad,glaciated,intermontanevalleycharacterizedbyknobandkettletopo-graphyandbybraidedriverchannels.Turning.westwardalongthenorthernedgeoftheCopperRiverlowlands,theriverentersadeep,V-shapedvalleyandtraversesthe"TalkeetnaMountains,emergingintoanoutwashplainandbroadvalleywhichitfollowstothesea.Threeregionaltopographi"clows,stillidentifiabletoday,aretheSusitnaRiver-ChulitnaRiverareadownstreamoftheDevi.lCanyonsite,themiddlereachoftheSusitnaRiverfromPrairieCreektoWatanaCreek,andtheOshetnaRiverareaattheSusitnaBigBend.Thesemay.representdrainagebaselevelsthatexistedduringtheglacialperiods.Whethertheywereinterconnectedatone·timeisnotknownsinceglacia-tionhasmodifiedtheoriginaldrainages.OnepossibleinterpretationisthattheancestralSusitnaRivermayhavefollowedthecourseofthepresentWatanaCreekandcontinuedsouthwestalonganancestral valleythroughtheareanowoccupiedbyStephanLake,PrairieCreek,andtheTalkeetnaRiver.TheSusitnaRiver,presentlyincised500feetintothat.broad,ancestral,U-shapedvalley,makestwosharpright-angleturnsdownstreamofWatanaCreekintheFogCreekareaand"leavestheancestralvalleytoflowwestwardintothesteep,V-shapedDevilCanyonarea.GlaciationprobablyblockeditsformersouthwestcourseforcingtherivertofindanewoutletinDevilCanyon.Onceestablishedinawestwardcourse,theSusitnaRiverdowncutitschannelrapidlyandbecameentrenchedinDevi1Canyon.INFERREDGEOLOGICHISTORYTheupperSusitnaRiverpasinisacomplexgeologicareawithavarietyofsedimentary,igneous,andmetamorphicrocktypes.TheserangefromPennsylvaniantoPleistoceneinageandhaveundergoneatleastthreemajorperiodsoftectonicdeformation.595 TheoldestoutcropsintheareaarePennsylvanianandPermian.agedmetavolcanicflowsandtuffs,locallycontaininglimestoneinterbedsthathavesubsequentlybeenalteredtomarble.ThistransitionalshelfenvironmentcontinuedthroughouttheTriassicand·intoearlyJurassictimes,withalternatedepositionofbasaltandthinsedimentaryinter-beds.Metavolcaniclasticsincludealteredmarinesandstonesandshales.Thisdepositionwascontemporaneouswithamassiveoutpouringoflavas,intheeasternAlaskaRange,resultinginregionalsubsidence..~ThefirstmajortectonicupheavalintheSusitnaareaoccurredinmidtolateJurassictimeandconsistedoflargeplutonicintrusionsaccompaniedbyupliftandintensemetamorphism.Erosionalremnantsoftheseintrusivesincludeamphibolites,greenschists,diorites,andacidicgranitictypesintheupperWatanareservqirareas.Thisuplift,andsubsequenterosionalperiod,wasfollowedbymarinedepositionofargilliteandgraywackeinlateCretaceous.TheserocksareexposedinthenorthwesternhalfoftheupperSusitnabasinandincludethephyllitesoftheDevilCanyonsite.ThesecondmajortectoniceventoccurredinmiddletolateCretaceous.MostofthestructuralfeaturesintheTalkeetnaMountains,includingthrustfaulting,complexfolding,anduplift,occurredatthattime.Asaresultofthethrustfaulting,Pennsylvani'anandPermianvolcanicflowsandtuffswerethrustoverthemuchyoungerlateCretaceousargilliteandgraywacke.InearlyTertiary,approximately65mi11ionyearsago,thenorth-westernportionoftheupperSusitnabasinwasintrudedbyplutonsofigneousrock.ThedioriteplutonthatunderliestheWatanasiteis.oneoftheseintrusives.Depositionofundifferentiatedvolcanicflows,pyroclastics,"andassociatednear-surfaceintrusivesoccurredconcurrentwithandfollowingtheintrusionoftheplutons.ThethirdmajortectoniceventwasaperiodofextensiveupliftanderosioninmiddleTertiarytoQuaternary.Upliftof3,000feethasbeenmeasured<inthesouthernTalkeetnaMountains.ThewidespreaderosionthatoccurredduringthisperiodremovedthickrocksequencesfromtheSusitnabasinarea.Glaciationhasbeentheprimeerosion.agentduringthepastseveralmillionyears.Atleasttwo,andprobablymore,periodsofglaciationoccurredwithintheupperSusitnabasinarea.Thecentralandeasternportionsoftheareamayhavebeenpartiallycoveredby'glacialTakesduringthelatterglaciations.RenewedupliftinlatePleistocenerejuvenatedtheerosioncycleuntilthestreams,withtheirincreased596 gradients,becameincisedwithinglaciatedvalleys.Theareacurrentlyisundergoingcontinuedstreamerosion,andiscoveredinmanyareaswithaveneerofglacialandalluvialclay,silt,sand,andgraveldepos.itSf;REGIONALTECTONICSThearcuatestructureofsouthcentralAlaskareflectboththemagni-tudeanddirectionofregionaltectonicforcescausedbythecollisionoftheNorthAmericanandPacificPlates.TheTalkeetnaMountainsandadjacentSusitnaRiverbasinarebelievedtohavebeenthrustnorth-westwardontotheNorthAmeri"canPlatefromtheirparentcontinentalblocks.Itwasthisthrustingactionwhichcausedmostofthestruc-turalfeaturesnowseenintheupperSusitnabasin.Twomajortectonicfeaturesbracketthebasinarea.TheDenaliFault,about43milesnorthofthedamsitesandactiveduringtheHolocene,.isoneofthebetterknownAlaskanfaults.Asecondfrac-ture,theCastleMountainFault,is75milessouthoftheriverbasin.TheSusitnabasinisroughlysubdividedbythenortheast-southwesttrendingTalkeetnaThrust,whichroughlyparallelsthelocationoftheSusitnaFault,asreferredtointhe1976InterimFeasibilityReport.TheTalkeetnaRiverisasurfaceexpressionofthesouthernportionofbothstructures;however,KachadoorianandMoorewereunabletolocateevidenceoffaultingintheTsusenaCreekareaand,therefore,expresseddoubtthattheSusitnaFaultexists.TheyfoundevidenceofmovementintheTalkeetnaRiverandWatanaCreekvalleysandpostulatedthattheTalkeetnaThrustcouldbeaprojectionofthisfeature.Suchaprojectionpassesabout4milestothesouthofWatanadamsite.Themajoralpineorogenywhichformedmanyofthebasins'presentnortheast-southwesttrendingcompressionalstructures.occurredinconjunctionwiththeTalkeetnaThrustinlate.Cretaceous.Anothercontemporaryzoneofintenseshearing,roughlyparalleltotheTalkeetnaThrust,islocatedabout15mileseastoftheTalkeetnaThrust.TwopoorlyexposednormalfaultsofprobableCenozoicagehavebeenprojectedfromgravimetricdataasoccurringinthe'Chu1itnaRivervalleyabout15milesnorthwestoftheproposedDevilCanyondamsite.ThesefaUltshavethenortheast-southwesttrendtypicalofthemajorstructureswithinthearea.NofaultswithrecentmovementhavebeenobservedwithintheupperSusitnaRiverbasin.SEISMICITYAseismologicalassessmentof:thebasinareawaspreparedbyDr.E.L.KrinitzskyoftheU.S.ArnnyEngineerWaterWaysExperimentStationinthesUll1l1erof1978,unde,r,contractwiththeAlaskaDistrict,597 CorpsofEngineers.Fieldreconnaissancetolookforactive,faultsandothergeologicalhazardswasconductedbyU.S.GeologicalSurveyunderthedirectionofReubenKachadoorianandHenryJ.Moore.ThesereportsareincludedasExhibitsD-3andD-2inthisappendix.TheyrecognizethattheDevilCanyonandWatanadamsitesareinaregionofhighseis-micityandmajorfaults.However,thegeologicreconnaissanceoftheproposedDevilCanyonandWatanadamsitesandreservoirareasbytheUSGSexpertsdidnotuncoverevidenceofrecentoractive faultingalonganyoftheknownorinferredfaults.Thetectonicframeworkoftheregionisnotwellunderstoodbecauseofthelackoflocalseismicmoni-toringstations.Presentknowledgeindicatesthathistoricalearthquakesintheareaoftenhavehypocenterdepthsinexcessof50km~SucheventsareassociatedwithmovementalongtheBenioffzoneandoftenarenotdirectlyassociatedwithlocalsurfacefaulting.TheDenaliFaultintheAlaskaRange,approximately43milestothenorth,isthedominantsurfacefeatureinthisarea.TheSusitnaFault,previouslythoughttoexistwestoftheWatanadamsite,wasnotconfirmedinrecentgeologicmappingbytheUSGSteam,nordidtheyfindanyevidenceoffaultingintheriverchannelateitherofthedamsites.TheresultsofthecoredrillingandgeologicreconnaissanceatthedamsitearestrongevidencethatnomajorfaultingexistsundertheWatanadamsite.ThelackofsignificantshearinginDH-2l,the600-footcrossriverhole,reinforcesthisconclusion..Krinitzsky'sworkassessedthepossibleoccurrenceofearthquakeactivitybasedontheUSGSfieldwork.Heassumesanearthquakeofmagnitude8alongtheDenaliFault,however,thesemotionsarenotcriticalwhenattenuatedtothedamsites.Toaccountforthepossibilitythatamajoractivefaultcouldexistnearthedamsites,Krihitzskyhasassigneda"floating"earthquakeofmagnitude7whichcouldoccurinthenearvicinityofthedam.Thisgeneratesthemostseveredesignmotions.The'rationalforthe'"floating"earthquakeandatableofassociatedmotionsisincludedinhisreport(ExhibitD-3).Thiscriteriaiswithinthestateoftheartforearthquakedesignforlargedams,andtherefore,shouldnotprecludeproceedingwithdetaileddesignoftheprojects.ROCKANDSOILUNITSTheproposedWatanadamsiteandreservoirareaisunderlainbyacomplexseriesofmetamorphic,igneous,andsedimentaryrock.'Specificformationnameshavenotbeenappliedtomostoftheseunitsandtheyareinsteadassignedlithologicdescriptionsforcorrelationandmappingpurposes.ThedistributionofvariousrockunitsthatunderlietheproposedreservoirareshownonPlateS.Followingisabriefdescrip-tionofthevariousrockunits.beginningattheupperendoftheres-ervoirandproceedingdownstreamtothedamsite.Additionalinforma-tionanddescriptivedetailsconcerningtherockunitsareincludedintheU.S.GeologicalSurvey'sOpenFileReport78-SS8-A,Reconnais-sanceGeologicMapandGeochronology,TalkeetnaMountains'Quadrangle,598 The/ypperreachesofthereservoirareunderlainbyanamphiboliteunit.Thesearemetamorphicrocksincluding.greenschists,diorites,andlocalmarbleinterbeds.Directlydownstreamofthisunitisa.zoneofgranitictypesthatareexposednorthoftheriveratelevationsabovetheproposedreservoirlevel.Theoldestrocksexposedwithintheareaarefartherdownstreamwithin themiddlereservoirreachesandincludebothvolcanicsandlime-stoneunits.ThevolcanicsconsistmostlyofmetamorphosedbasaltandandesiteflowsandtuffsthatoutcropinthevicinityofJayCreekanddownstreamfromKosinaCreek•.Thelimestoneunitconsists.ofmarbleinterbedsthatoccurlocallywithinthevolcanics.Thevolcanicsareoverlainfartherdownstreambyavolcanicunitofyoung~rageconsistingofaseriesofmetamorphosedbasalticflowswithinterbedsofchert,argillite,anamarble.ThisunitisexposedbothnearthemouthofWatanaCreekandonthehigherslopeswestofWatanaCreek.Amuchyoungerseriesofinterbeddedconglomerates,sandstones,andclaystonesisexposedalongthelowerreachesofWatanaCreekdirectlyupstreamfromitsmouth.Thedownstreamreachesofthereservoirareaareunderlainbyasequenceofargillitesandgraywackes.ExposedWithintheimmediatedamsiteareaisagraniticbodyintrudedintothesemetasediments.Itconsistsprimarilyofdioritewithupstreamanddownstreammarginsthatincludeassociatedschist.gneiss,andcompositeigneousandmetamorphicrocktypes.Andesiteflowsanddikesareassociatedwiththisdioritepluton.Othergraniticintrusivesoccureastofthereservoirarea.Locally,theseintrusivesareoverlainbyaseriesofyoungerigneousflowsand·tuffsandrelatedshallowintrusives.Overburdenunitsintheproposedreservoirareaincludedepositsofglacialtillanddriftwithassociatedoutwashandlakesediments,colluviumincludingslopewashandtalus,alluviumandlocalslidedebris.ROCKSTRUCTURERockswithinthereservoirareahaveundergoneacomplexdeforma-tibnsequence,includinguplift,intrusion,thrustfaulting,folding,sheiring,_andassociatedmetamorphism•.Themostsignificantstr.ucturalfeaurewithinthe,reservoirareaistheTalkeetnaThrustwhichstrikesnorheastwardacro~st~lowerreservoirareaandisroughlyparallel599 tothelowerreachesofWatanaCreek.TheTalkeetnaThrust,withintheWatanareservoir'area,hasdisplacedthevolcantcunitoverthemuch'youngermetasediments.Anortheaststrikingshearzonethatdips,steeplysouthea~terly,andisroughlyparalleltotheTalkeetnaThrust,crossesthe·reservoirareaabout15mileseast"oftheTalkeetnaThrustnearKosinaCreek.'Whetherthisshearzonerepresentsasignificantfeatureisnotknown.,ThemostsignificantrockstructureintheimmediatedamareaistheintrusivedioriteplutonofTertiaryage.Itisobservablefor.4mil~spara11e1totheriverand~mi1esnorthandsouthandisprob~ablyofgreatdepth.Upstreamanddownstreamborderzonesdevelopedwithseveraldifferentmetamorphicandigneousrockvarieties.Twodistinctnorthwesttrendingshearzoneshavebeenmappedinthevicinityofthedamsite.Oneis3,400feetupstreamandthe.other2,500feetdownstreamfromt.heproposeddamaxis.AttitudesvarywithstrikesrangingfromN40°Wto60°Wanddipsfrom70°to90°eitherSWor,NE.Thetwoshearscanbeseenintherightvalleywall,;butnotontheleftvalleywall.Theleftwallisobscuredbyaslideblockattheupstreamshear,andtheleftwallatthedow.nst.reamshearhasarockfacethatparallelsthesheardirectionmakingobservationsdifficult.Theup-streamshearzonehasbeennamedliTheFins,1Iandhasanobservablewidthinexcessof400feet.Itincludessevennearverticalrockfinsaveraging5to25feetinwidthboundedonbothsidesbya1te,redandcrushedrock.Thedownstreamshearzone,namedIIFingerBusterll,issome-whatlessdistinctandispartiallycoveredbyslopedebris.Ithasanestimatedwidthof300feet.Anothernorthwesttrendingshearzone,similartothetwoshearsmentionedabove,occursdownstreamfromthedamsiteinthevicinityofTsusenaCreek.. ,'1.•...Fracturepatternsincludingbothjointsandlocalshearshavebeenmappedwithin'accessibleareasinthevicinity,ofthedarnsite.Detailsofthismappingareshown.onPlatesD-3andD-4.Fracturesin~ludebothcoolingtypejointingaridstructuraldeformationjointingresultingfromtheregionaltectonicforcesofupliftandthrustfaulting.Shear,tension,andre1iefjointsresu1ti'ngfromunloadingbyerosionofover-lyingsedimentsand/ormeltingofglacialice;areallpresentwithin.thedamsitearea.Ajointdiagramplottedon.anequalareastereograph;cprojectionisshowninFigureD-6.Thedominantfractureorientationistothenorthwest,butfracturesstrikeinseveraldirections.ThemajorjointsetsareN50°WandtheminorjointsetsareN30°Easobservedwithin thearea.600 DEVILCANYONSEISMICREFRACTIONSURVEYDuringSeptember1978,seismicrefraction·surveyswereundertakenatWatanaandn'evilCanyondamsitesbyShannonandWilson,geotechnicalconsultants.AtDevilCanyon,theseismicsurveyconsistedofthreelines,eachapproximately1,100feetlong.Oneoftheselineswas1ocatednearth.eproposeda1inementofthesaddledamonthe1eftabut-mentandtheremainingtwolineswerelocatedhearanabandonedairstriponthealluvialfanattheconfluenceofCheechakoCreekandtheSusitnaRiver(seePlateD-1).TheseismiclinenearthecenterlineoftheleftabutmentsaddledamwasaltnedtoexpandinformationderivedfromdrillingaccomplishedonthissitebytheU.S~·BureauofReclamation(USBR)in1957.Therefractionprofilecorrelatedwellwiththetopofrockfromthedrillingdata(seeSheetNo.10,ExhibitD-l).Alowervelocityzoneofrocksandwichedbetweencompetentphylliteindicatesthepossi..bilityofashearzonea.tthelowpointofthesaddle.ThiscorrelateswithholeDH-6whichindicatedshearinginthe20feetofbedrockpene-tratedbytheboring•.Theseismic1inesontheCheechakoCreekaggregatedepositwerealinedt9estab1ishthedepthtobedrockbeneaththesedepositsandtherebyconfirmthequantityofmaterialavailableforborrow.Thevelocitiesforthematerialinthealluviumindicatetha.ttheareaiscomposedofalayerofsandsandgravelsorglacialmaterialsseveralhundredfeetth.ickoverlyingbedrock.Thisconfirmstheexistenceofmaterialwellinexcessof~therequirementsfortheproject.ThelocationmapandseismicvelocityprofilesfromtheShannon&WilsonreportandincludedinExhibitD-ltothisappendix.MATERIALREQUIREMENTSCo.,creteRequirementsMaterialrequirementsforDevilCanyondamarebasedonaconcretegravitydam.Underthisproposalapproximately2.6millioncubicyardsofconcretewillberequired,mostofwhichwillbemassconcrete.Theremainderwillbestructuralconcretefortheappurtenantstructurestothedam,includingthepowerplant.Withstockpilelosses,thisamountofconcretewt11requireapproximately3milli'oncubicyardsofprocessedaggregate•.TheUSBRlocatedanextensivedepositofmaterialwhichwillyieldconcrete'aggregateofadequatequalityinanalluvialfanapproximately1,000feetupstreamoftheproposeddamaxis.ThefanwasformedattheconfluenceofCheechakoCreekandtheSusitnaRiver.601 ThirteentestpitsandtrencheswereduginthefanareabyBureauofReclamationpersonnelin1957.About1,300pounds.ofminus3-inchmaterialwastestedbytheUSBRforbasicaggregatesuttabilitystudies.Anadditional200poundsofmaterialwascollectedbyCorpsofEngineerspersonnelin1975fromtheexistingBureautestpitsandtheriverbank.ThismaterialwastestedbytheNorthPacificDivisionMaterialsLabora-toryin1978•Iftheexcavationofmaterialsisconfinedtothatpartofthealluviumlocatedaboveriverlevel(elevation910to920feet)withconservativebackslopesthroughtheridgesandbenches,approximately6,000,000cubicyardsofmaterialisavailableinthislocationwithalltheresultingexcavationinthereservoirarea.Seismicrefractionsurveysindicatethatusablegravelexiststoapproximatelyelevation870feet,soadditionalmaterialcouldberetrievedifneededbybailingfrombelowthewatersurface.Placementofthecofferdam,sizingof.thediversiontunnel,andtheabilitytocontroltheflowintheriveratWatanadamwillultimatelyaffectthemethodofexploitationofthissource.ThelocationsofthetestpitsareshownonPlateD~landthedetailedlogscanbefoundintheU.S.BureauofReclamation'sAlaskaGeologicReport#7,DevilCanyonProject,datedMarch1960•.LaboratoryinvestigationsoftheaggregatesampleswerereportedinUSBRReport#C-932bytheirConcreteLaboratoryBranch,dated21December1959.Petrographicanalysesofthefi~e(sandsized)particlesandcoarse(gravelsize)particlesindicatethatthesandsandgravelsinthefanarecomposedofquartzdiorites, diorites,granites,andesites,dacites,metavolcanicrocks,aplites,breccias,schists,phyllites,argillites,andamphibolites.Thegravelparticlesarestreamwornandgenerallyroundedinshape.Thesandgrainsvaryfromnearlyroundedtosharplyangularinshape,averagingsubangular~Thespecificgravity(BSSDJofthematerialrangesfrom2.68to2.80•.ResultsfrombothlabsindicatethatthematerialintheCheechakoCreekfanisofadequatequalityforuseasconcreteaggregate.EmbankmentMaterialRequirementsThe.saddledamontheleftabutment,associatedwiththeconcretegravitydam,willrequireapproximately835,000cubi.cyardsofmaterial.Thesemateria·lswillbeobtainedfromthesamesourcesasdiscussedintheInterimFeasibilityReport.602 WATANASITESCOPEOFINVESTIGATIONSFieldReconnaissanceGeologicreconnaissanceandmappingofthereservoirareaanddam..sitewereconductedconcurrentlywithsUbsurfaceinvestigationsthrough-outthespringandearlysunmerof1978.Theworkofthegeologicteamswasmadeeasierintheearlyspringasrockoutcropswerenotobscuredbytheleavesonthetreesandthedense.groundfoliage.ThroughthemonthsofMarthandApri.l,geologicmapping~ofthelowercanyonwasdonefromthefrozensurfaceoftheri·ver,whichallowedaccesstoareas\otherwiseinaccessibleaftertheicehadmeltedandhighsurmnerflowsontheriverhadbegun.Withinthedamsiteareatheprimarypurpose·was·tofind,identify,andtracethesurfaceexpressionsofdiscontinuitiesandshearzonesasanaidindirectingthedrillingprogramandtoprovidepreliminarygeologicmappingofthesite.Withinthereservoirarea,theprimarythrustofthereconnaissancewastowardidentificationofslopes,whichbyreasonofshape,structureoroverburdenmantlecoulddevelopminorslumpsandslidesasaresultofpermafrostdegradationorseismicaction.BoringsandTestPits.During1978,explorationswereconductedinthedamfoundationandrelictchannelarea.Coreboringsinthevalleywallsandfloorwereusedtoexplorethequalityandstructureofthefoundationrockandtoobtainrepresentativesamplesfortesting.Boringsintherelictchannelareawereusedtodefine·thedepthofoverburden,theextentofperma-frost,thelocationofthewatertableandtoexamine,bydrillingandsampling,thenatureandconditionofthematerials.Shallowaugerholeswerealsousedtodeterminetheextentofdepositsintheborrowareasandtoverifytheexistenceofquantitiesnecessaryforembankmentconstruction.LocationsofexplorationsareshownonPlate0-2.LogsareshownonPlates0-19through0-37;andcorephotosareshownonPlate,S0-38through0-45.Testpitswereduginpotentialborrowareasuti'lizingtractor-mountedbackhoes.BulksacksampleswereretrievedfromeachtestpitfortestinglaterattheNorthPacificOivisonMaterialsLabora-toryinTroutdale,Oregon.603 Atotalof27testpitswereduginfourareasasfollows:1.ThemouthofTsusenaCreek(BorrowAreaIE')- 6testpits.2.Theglacialtillborrowarea(BorrowArea10')-14testpits.3.UpperTsusenaCree~northofTsusenaButte,(BorrowArea'C')-1testpit..4.MiddleTsusenaCreek- 6testpits.ThelocationsofTestPits1through5and8through21areshownonPlates0-12and0-11.Theremainderofthetestpitsarelocatedinareaswhicharenotpresentlyconsideredasborrowareas;however,theymaybelocatedonPlate0-2.ThelogsofallthetestpitsareshownontheappropriateborrowareaPlates0-19through0-22.SeismicRefractionSurveysAseismic,refractionexplorationprogramconsistingof22,500linealfeetofseismicrefractionlineswas..completedbyDamesandMoore,Consultants,in1975.ResultsofthoseinvestigationswerepresentedasExhibit0-1,Section"0,FoundationandMaterials,inthe1976InterimFeasibilityReport.Inthefallof1978,anadditionalseismicrefrac-tionsurveywascompletedbyShannonandWilson,Consultants,whichincludes47,665feetofseismicrefractionlines.LocationsoftheseadditionalseismicexplorationsareshownonPlate0-2,andthelocationmapandseismicveloGityprofilesarepresentedasExhibit0-1.ThesurveyconfirmedthefindingsoftheOamesandMoorestudy.Itconfirmedtheexistenceofaburiedchannelintherelictchannelareaandingeneralsupportedconclusionsrelatingtoshearzonesintheabutmentsasinterpretedfromtherecentcoreboringsandgeologicreconnaissance.TheShannonandWilsonsurveyalsoconfirmedtheexistenceoflarge.quantitiesofborrowmaterialsonTsusenaCreekintheproposedborrowarea.Instrumentation.InstrumentationconductedunderthisphaseoftheProjectconsistedoftheinstallationanddatareadingofgroundwatermeasurementdevices,temperatureloggingdevices,andtherecording'oftheambienttemperature.Ground'Water:Allpiezometersinstalledwereoftheopenwellpointtypeandwerefilledwithdieseloilwheretheyextendthroughpermafrostzonestopreventfreezing.Atotalof10piezometerswere;-nstalledatthefollowinglocations.'604 TABLE0-1SurfaceTipLocationElevationElevationOate;Set.SizeOR-142,3402,·271.026Apr4112,340·2,295.219Aug1-1/211OR-202,2072,123.830May1-1/211OR-182,1722,107.021Jun1-1/211OR-172,1672,136.38Jun1-1/211OR-162,0992,053..85Jun1-1/211AP-l2,2022,188.620Jun1-1/211AP..22,2002,189.020Jun1-1/211OR-192,1512,109.03Ju11-1/211OR-222,2292,005.53Aug1-1/211DR~262,2952,229.511Aug1-1/211AlllocationsareshownonPlate0-2andPlate0-11.PlotteddataisshownonPlates0-16through0-18.SubsurfaceTemperature:Theprincipaltemperatureloggingdeviceconsistedofa3/4-inchgalvanizedpipe,withthelowerendcappedandsealed.Thepipewasfilledwithamixtureofethyleneglycolandwater(50/50)orarcticgradedieselfuel.Readingsweretakenusingadigital·volt-ohmmeterandasinglethermisterwhichwasloweredintothepipe.AtlocationOR-26botha3/4~inchga1vahizedanda1-1/2-inchPVCpipewereinstalledtodetermineifreadingscouldbeduplicatedinapipeoflargerdiameter.Atotalof14deviceswereinstalledatthelocationsshowninTable0-2.605 TABLED-2.DateBuriedLocationInsta11edLengthStickUpDepth.FluidAP-823Jun6414.2158.91DieselAP-923Jun2113.2117.81DieselDH-12·3Jul12911.81127.21DieselDH-2317Jul7610.5175.51AntifreezeOH-241Aug8611.2184.81AntifreezeDR-1821Jun25113.1l1247.61DieselDR-193Ju18313.9179.11DieselOR-223Aug49212.01490.01AntifreezeOH-2830Aug12411.01123.01AntifreezeDR-26(3/4"pipe)11Aug6813.8164.21AntifreezeOR-26(1-1/2"pipe)11Aug9913.4195.61AntifreezeOR-1419Aug6512.8162.21.AntifreezeDH-2123Aug16012.01158.01AntifreezeOH-2515Aug8014.0176~01AntifreezeAlllocationsareshownonPlate0-2an~Plate0-11.Theplottedtemperaturedatacanbefoundon.Plates0-13throughD-15.Asecondtypeoftemperatureloggingdevice,installedatDR-22,consistedofamultipointthermistorstring.ThepurpOseofthisinstal-lationwastoactasacheckagainstthe3/4-inchfluidfille~devicesdescribedabove.AmbientTemperature:Theambienttemperaturewasobtainedusingastandardhigh-lOWMercurythermometerplacedintheshadeontherightabutmentriverbankapproximately4feetabovetheground.Priortothisphaseoftheproject,therewasnoambienttemperaturedataavailableforthissectionofAlaska.DataobtainedisshownonTable0-3.606 TABLED-3DateHighofLowofDateHighofLow"F23Mar78·22023t4ay78603924Mar78241324May18603225Mar78281925May78614027Mar78321026May78413628Mar78261327May786429Mar7840628May783630Mar7835629May78583331Mar7836530~1ay7863361Apr7831531May7866402Apr7828-41Jun7854363Apr782832Jun7858384Apr783643Jun7868415.Apr7836204Jun7868386Apr7833115Jun7857397-8Apr784028.6Jun7866449Apr78411011Jun7872441oApr78431312Jun78623911Apr78382014Jun78574012Apr78381516Jun785834.13Apr78403019Jun78523314Apr78443220Jun78613315Apr78403821Jun786316Apr78392922Jun784617Apr78382127Jun7·8553818Apr7843212.8Jun78593719Apr78442030Jun78624320Apr7848241Ju178574121Apr7844252Ju178624322Apr7845304Ju178704723-24Apr7847327Ju178624025-26Apr7850268JuT78734330Apr78.59329Ju'-7870491May78603410Ju17866429May78643011Ju1787110May78723312Ju1785011,May78703314Ju17859 5012May78654016Ju178584713May78723026Ju1786645T4May78723127Ju178784015May78663628Ju178745516May78553229Ju178783917May78603030Ju178824618May78643731Ju178845219May7860371Aug78805820May7875249Aug78714621May78704310Aug78685422May783611Aug786649607 AccuracyofSubsurfaceTemperature'Data:Resistancemeasurements'wereobtainedusingaKeithley.volt-ohmmeter,whichallowedreadingstothenearestohm.Withaspanof225ohmsperdegreecentigrade,1~ohmrepresents0.005°C.Thetemperaturedatainthisreporthasbeenreportedto0.01°Candisreliabletothatdegreeofaccuracy.'Toverifytheaccuracyofeachthermister,itsresistancewasmeasuredinanicebath.Itwasfoundthatthethemistorsareverystab1eanddonottendtodriftfromtheiroriginalresistanceat0.00°C.GeneralCommentsThedrillinginthepermafrostwasperformedwithcoredrillsandrotarydrills,whichintroducealargeamountofheatintotheground.Wherethepermafrosttemperatureisonlyslightlybe1ow.thefreezingpoint,thistendstomeltthepermafrostandmakestdentificationverydifficult:Therefore,thedrillingoperationmayormaynotreflecttheexistenceofpermafrost,anditisnecessarytorelyheavi1y,ontheinstrumentationforatrueevaluationofthelocationanddepth,atwhichpermafrostexists.ByDecemberof1978,thetemperatureloggingdevicesmaynothavestabi1izeddueprimarilytothefact.thatthedri11ingmethodusedwasrotarywithdri11i'ngIImudllasthecirctJlationmedium,whichtendstothawthepermafrost.Uponinspectionoftheplotteddataforthelocationsin~hisareaitcanbeseenthatthetemperaturesaregraduallyapproachingthe0°Cpoint.Throughacontinualprogram,ofmonitoringthesepoints,agreatdealcanbelearnedabout"freezeback.IIAtlocationOR-26,3/4inchand1-1/2inchpipeswereinstalledtodetermineifconvectioncurrentsinthepipewouldaffecttheaccuracyofthenearsurfacereadings.Itcanbeseenfromthetemperatureplots,shownonPlates0-13through0-15,thatthereisadegreeofconvectionintheupperzones,whilewithdepththetworeadingsareverysimilar.AtlocationOR-22,thestringhad14thermistorsina150footlength.Thedatanbtaihedfromthisstringhasnotbeenincludedinthisreportsinceitsreliabilityisinquestion.Thisisduetodamagereceivedduringinstallationaswellasthefactthatthethermistorsareofalowerqualityandadequatecalibrationcouldnotbeobtainedpriortoinstallation.'AtlocationOH-12.the3/4-inchpipetemperatureloggingdevicewaslostwhenitwasdecidedthatthebore-holecamerashouldberuninthisboring.AtlocationOH-25nodataisavailablebecausethe3/4-inchpipefrozeupduringinstallation.SITEGEOLOGYIntroductionTherivervalleyatthesitehasaV-shapedlowerorbottomcanyondeeply,incisedintoanupper,muchbroader,U-shapedrivervalleyofconsiderableextentandwidth.608 Thelowerrivervalleyfloorrangesfrom300to600feetwideandhassideslopesof35to60degrees'with1ocallysca.ttered.rockoutcropsthatriseinnearverticalcliffs•..Theincisedportionofthecanyonextendsfromsubriverlevelupwardabout500feettoapproximateeleva-tion2,000feet,wher.eitrangesinwidthfrom1,500to3,000feet.Aboveelevation2,000feet,thereisadistinctflatteningofthevalleyslopesandtheareabroadensoutintoaverywtdeformerrivervalley.Widthofthisformervalleybaselevelisfrom8to10milesinthelowerreservoirarea,narrowstoabout1mileinthemidreservoirareaupstreamofJayCreekandwidenstomorethan20milesintheupperreachesofthereservoir.FoundationConditionsThesitewasmappedandexploredwith17coreholes,12ofwhichareonthedamaxisshowninthisreport•.Sixoftheholesareangleholes,fiveweredrillednormaltothedominantstructuraltrend,and.",onedrilledacrosstherivervalley.Theexplorationplanwithhole.,locationsispresentedonPlate0-2.Therivervalleyisfilledwithalluviumconsistingofgravels,cobbles,andbouldersinamatrixofsandorsiltysand.Overburdendepthsinthevalleybottomrangefrom40to80feetandmayexceed100feet;nplaces.Overburdendepthsonthevalleyslopesrangeupto10,feetdeepontheleftabutmentandupto20feetontherightabutment.However,overburdenupstreamoftheleftabutmentismorethan56feetdeep.Overburdenonthevalleyslopesismostlyglacialdebrisandtalusconsistingofvariousgravelandsandmixturesandsomesilts,withcobblesandsmallboulders.ThE!underlyingrockisdiorite,grano-diorite,.andquartzdioritewithlocalandesiteporphyrydikesandmorewidelyscatteredminorfelsitedikes.Mostoftherock,althoughfrac-.tured,isrelativelyfreshand,hardto.veryhardwith;'n5to40feetoftopofrock.OverburdenandrockstrippingdepthsalongthedamaxisareshownincrosssectiononPlate0-7..Fracturesare'closelytomoderatelyspacedatthebedrocksurface,generallybecomingmorewidelyspacedwithdepth.FracturezonesfO.undatalldepthstendtobetightorrecementedwith·calciteorsilica.Thenorthwesttrendingjointsandhighangleshearsmappedintherockoutcropsarefoundatdifferentdepthswithinmostdrillholesandrangefromsinglefracturestobrokenzonesmorethan20feetthick~Brokenrockwithintheshearzonesislocallydecomposedbutconsistsmainlyofmoderatelyhardtoveryhardfragments.Manyfractureshavethinclaygougeseamsandslickensides.Pyriteandchloriteminerali-zationisfoundascoatingsonmanyfracturesurfaces.Shearsare609 spacedfromafewfeettomorethan100feetapart,andsincetheshearsaremostlyvertical,greaterlengthsofshearedmaterialwererecoveredinverticaldrillholes•.Inadditiontotheshears,primaryandrehealedbrecciazonesoccurinsomeareasadjacenttotheandesiteporphyrydikes'.Mostoftheserehealedbrecciasarerelativelycompetentrock,butaprimarybrecciazonedownstreamoftheaxisontheleft'abutmentincludeslocallydecomposedmaterials.ValleyConditionsTherivervalleybottomwasexploredwithsixcoredrillholes.Threeholesareontheaxisandthreeareabout1,000feetdownstreamofcenterlineinthe toearea.Riveralluviumvariedindepthfrom44to78feet.Thisalluviumconsistsofgravels,cobbles,andbouldersimbeddedinsandswithlocalgravellyorsiltysandlenses.Thegravelsandlargersizesaremostlysubroundedtoroundedwithoccasionallargeboulders.Mostlargesi"zesareofdioriticcomposition,.butmetamorphicandotherrocktypeswerealsonoted.Mostofthegravelsarefresh,butafewarecoatedwithplasticfines.Alluvialmaterialsinsomeareaswerefrozentodepthsinexcessof50feetandpossiblyallthewaytobedrockatthetimeofdrilling.Thebedrockisadioritethatinmostholesisverycloselyfracturedintheupper10to20feet.Fracturesbecomemorewidelyspacedwithdepth;however,localzonesofcloselyspacedfracturesoccurthroughout.Jointsarebothopenandrehealedorcementedwithcalciteandsilica.Therockbelowriverlevelismostlyfreshandhardtoveryhard.Shearzonesoccurinseveraloftheholesandincludesomethinclaygougecoatingsandslickensides.Softchloriticmaterialswerealsoencounteredin'oneshearzone,andironstainingwithpyritemineralizationiscommon.ItshouldbenotedthatDH-21wasdrilledessentiallyacrosstheriverfromthelefttotherightabutment.Nomajorfaultorsignificantchangeinmaterialswasseenalthoughsixminorshearzoneswereencounteredinthehole.Mostofthesezonesarelessthan3feetthick,whereas,someoftheverticalholespenetratedshearedmaterialfordistancesofmorethan10feet.Thisconfirmsthenearverticalnatureofmostshearing.Geologicmappinginrockexposuresalongtheri.ver-bankalsoindicatesthenearverticalnatureofshearing.AnandesiteporphyrydikewaspenetratedatdepthbyDH-21.Thisdikehasanapparentthicknessofabout13feet,andthecontactswiththedioritearetightandcontainnonotableplanesofweakness.Theleftabutmentwasexploredwithfivedrillholes,threeonthedamaxisandoneeachupstreamanddownstreamoftheembankment.Over-burdendepthsinthedownstreamhole~ndthethreeaxisholesarelessthan10feet.Thisoverburdenconsistsofsmallsubangulartosub-roundedbouldersinsilt,sand,andgravel.OverburdeninDH-28,10catedapproximately1,000feetdownstreamoftheaxisatelevation1,971feet,610 consistsof6feetofsiltyclayoverlaying2feetofsand.DH~25,locatedabout750.feetupstreamoftheaxisatelevation2,045feet,penetratedavertlcaldepthof56feet.ofglacialandalluvialdepositsandhadnotyetencounteredrockwhenltwasabandoned.OverburdeninDH-25consistsprimarilyofgravelly,siltysandwithboulderstoadepthof15feet,underlainbygravelly,clayeysilt.~ravelsaresub-roundedtoroundedandtheclayeysiltsarestiffandplastic.Rockinthethreeaxisholesisahardquartzdiorite,whereasinDH-28downstreamoftheembankment,itisanandesiteporphyry.Therelationshipbetweenthequartzdioriteasaplutonticrockandtheandesiteporphyryasasurfaceflowrockisnotclearlyunderstood.Thiscontactareabetweenthetwotyperocks.isinthelocationofthe",.undergroundpowerhouseandwillbecloselyexploredduri.ngdesigninves-tigations.Itisassumedtheundergroundpowerhousewillbelocatedinthedioriticrock.Weatheringisprimarilystainingonfracturesurfaces.Fracturespacingsvaryfromveryclosetomoderatelyspaced;spacingincreaseswithdepth.Fracturedzones,encounteredinallholes,arefromlessthan1tomorethan20feetthickandareseparatedbyfrom10tomorethan50feetofrelativelyundisturbedrock.Manyfracturesincludethinseamsofclaygouge,slickensides,secondarypyrite,andbreccia.DH-28,downstreamoftheembankment,appearstohavebeendrilledinanandesiteporphyrybrecciacontactzoneadjacenttothedioritepluton.Muchofthecoreisbrecciated,moderatelyweatheredtohighlyaltered,andrecoveredinsmallfragments.Severalzonesofclaygougewerenoted.Rightabutmentconditionswereexploredwithsixcoredrillholesalongtheproposeddamaxis.Threeoftheseholeswereangleholesdrillednormaltothedominantstructuraltrends.Overburdendepthswithin thesixholesrangefrom4to20feet,withthegreaterdepthsintheholesfarthestupslope.Overburdenconsistsof~ravellysandwithcobblesandsmallboulders.Bedrockismoderatelyhard,butweathered,closelyfracturedandlocallyshearedintheupper10to40feet.Therockisdioriteorquartzdioritewithzonesofquartzdioritebreccia~Thequartzdioritebrecciaishealed,probablyformedduringemplacement,and'isnotcon-sideredazoneofweakness.Fracturedzonesencounteredduringdri11ingaresimi.lartothosenotedontheleftabutment.Shearsrangeupto22feetthickandareseparatedfromeachotherbyabout10to100feetofcompetentrock.Verythinfilmsofclay'gougeandslickensidesoccuronsomefracturesurfaces.Ironstainingoccursonmanyfracturesurfacesandfinedis-seminatedpyritemineralizationoccursmorewidely.611 RelictChannelAreaTherelictchannelisasuspectedancestora1SusitnaRiverchannelnorthoftherightabutmentunderthebroadterraceareabetweenDeadmanandTsusenaCreeks.Groundsurfaces.withintheRelictChannelareaarebetweenelevation2,100and2,300feetalonglowelongatedridgesandshallowdepressions.Thisareawasortgtnallyexplo'redwithtwoseismiclinesandtheresultspresentedintheFeasibilttyReport,Appendix1asExhibit0-1.Subsequent1978explorattonsinclude1,814linearfeetofdrilling,borrowexploraUons·nearDeadmanCreekand23,600feetofseismicrefractionlines.The11drillholesra~gefrom21to494feet,indepthandweremostlynoncorerotaryholessupplemented,withdrivesamplesandsomebedrockcoring.Theresultsofthese1978explorationsconfirmtheexistenceofthedeeplyburi'edbedrocksurfacedepressiondiscoveredduringthe1975sei'smicinvestigations.ThelowestbedrockelevationencounteredindrillingwasinDR-22at1,775feet,MSLor454feetbelowgroundsurface.Overburdenconsistsofbothglacialandalluvialmaterialsoccu~ringinvaryingsequencesthataredifficulttocorrelate'withthelimiteddril1ing'todate.Outwashoccursovermuchofthearea,consistingofgravelly,siltysands'or.silty,gravellysandsinvaryingproportions,.withsomelocalcobblesandbouldersandmorewidelyscatteredclaylenses.Thesematerialsaremostlylooseandthefinesarepredominantlynon-plastic.'Glacialtillisthemostabundantoverburdenmaterialfoundwithintherelictchannelarea.Thesetillsoccurinthreeseparatesequencesinthedeepestdri11holes,separatedby1ensesofalluvial,materia1s.Thenearsurfacetillsarenormallyconsolidatedwhilethetillsfromgreaterd'epths,arehighlyoverconsolidatedanddense.Itisquiteprobablethatthisoverconsolidationwascaus'edbyglacialloadinginthegeologicpast.Allofthetillscontainfinesthatarenonplasticoronlymoderately'plastic.Smallergravelsizesarerounded,whilelargersizesaremoresubroundedtosubangu1ar.Materialsarepoorlysortedwith1itt1eornoindi'cati,onofbedding.Thetillsvarycon-siderablyinthicknessfromonlyafewfeettoamaximumof163feetinDR-18.Apparentriverdeposi.tedal1uvfa1lenseswhichrepresentinter-glacialperiods,separatemanyofthetillunits.Thesedepositsconsistofsandygravelswithsomesilts.Sandya11uvia1unitshaveatendencytocaveduringdrillingandseveralappeartohaverelativelyhigh.permeabilities.Mostoftheseriverdepositswerelessthan50feetinthicknessbutinDR-22,directlyabovebedrock,thealluvialunitwas159feetthick.612 Atleasttwodepositsoflakesedimentswereencounteredduringdrilling.Thelargerofthesewasnamed"LakeWoller"qnd.occursinOR-13,OR-15, OR-26,andOR-27i,nvaryingthi,cknesses.Maximumthick-nessis60+fe~tinOR-l3.LakeWollerdepositsappeartobeconfinedbetweenelevations2,240and2,305feet.AnotherapparentlakedepositwaspenetratedinDR-18andOR-20.Maximumthicknessofthi:sdeposit,is33feetandappearstobeconfinedbetweenelevations2,130and2~190feet.Bothlakedepositsmayrepresenteitherquietlakedepositionduringaninterglacialperiod,orpossiblyprog1aciallakesformedduringglacia1retreats.Thelakedepositsconsistprimarilyofhighlytomoderatelyplasticc1qysandsiltswithlocalgravelandsandlenses.SpillwayTheoriginallocationoftheSaddleSpillwayintheInterimFeasi-bilityReport,AppendixI,Plate0-3,wasfoundtoliedirectlyupontwoadversestructures•.Theoverburdendepthsincreasedfrom9feetatDR-17ontheleftsideoftheproposeda1inementto231feetatDR-18ontherightoreastsideofthespillway.Thisdepth.ofoverburdenprevailedthroughoutthelengthofthespillway,includingtheproposedgatestructurearea.Theglacialtills,clay,andintermittentsandlensesoftheover-burdenwouldnaverequiredadditiona1'excavationandflattersides10pes.Addedexpense.wou1dalsohaveresultedfromincreas.edfoundationrequire-mentsforthegatestructureandfromthefulllengthliningWhichwouldhavebeenrequiredinthespi11way'channe1.Toavoidthesedisadvantagesachangeofthechannela1inementwasmade.•Thenewproposeda1inementliesapproximately800feetlaterallytotheleft(southwest)oftheoriginaldesignandwillbeinrockcutfrominlettofinaloutletatTsusenaCreek.Thisa1inementwillalsoavoidpotentialstructuralproblemsfromthesecondadversestructure,th~shearzonetitled"TheFins"(Plate0-4)whichwillnowparallelthespillwayforitsentirelength.Rockqualityissuchthatexcavatedrockwillbeusedasdamshellrock..Asa.resu1tofthemove,itisanticipatedthatsoundbedrockwillbeencounteredatamaximumdepthof25feetatthegqtestructureandwillcontinuedownspillwayforatleast2,500feet.AsthespillwaydipsdowntoTsusenaCreek,deeperglacialtillisagainencountered,sotheffna1sectionoftheoutflowmaynotbe.totat1yfoundedonbed-rock.TheplungepoolatTsusenaCreekwillbecontainedbyexistingrockcliffs.613 Permafrost..TheWatanadamsitelieswithinthediscontinuouspermafrostzoneofAlaska.Forthisreasonitistobeexpectedthatpermafrostwouldbefoundduri.ngtheexploratoryeffort,particularlyonnorthfacingslopesandareaswherearcticvegetationhaseffectivelyinsulatedthegroundsurface.Depths'ofpermafrostwithin thediscontinuouszonearevariableandoftenchangedrasticallywithinshortdistancesdependingonexposure,groundcover,soilcharacteristicsandotherfactors..PermafrostconditionsatWatanaasindicatedbytheexploratoryworkdonetodateappeartobetypicalforthezone.Theleftabutmentwhichfacesnorthandiseithercontinuouslyshadedorreceivesonlylowangleraysfromthesunwasexploredwithcoredr.illingequipment.FiveholesWeredrilledandpressuretestedbypumpingwaterintothedrillholesatselectedintervalsusingadoublepacker.Observationofdrillwaterreturnsandpressuretestsshowedthatpermafrostexistsfortheentiredepthoftheholes.Holesdrilledintherightabutment,wherethesun'sraysaremosteffective,didnotindicateanyperma-frost.Withintherelictchannelareas,ontheterraceriorthoftherightabutment,indicationsofpermafrostwereobservedasreflectedbygroundwaterconditionsandwatertablemeasurements,drillaction,andsampling.Dril,lholeDR-27wassampledandicelensesWererettievedfromadepthof30through36feet.Permafrostwasalsoencounteredduringtestpitactivities.However,ingeneral,permafrost'inthespillwayandrelictchannelarea,whileencounteredasnearas1foottothes.urface,isexpectedtobeconfinedtoarelativelyshallowlayer.Thisexpectationhasbeen'reinforcedbythefactthatgroundwaterhasbeenencounteredatvarious depths.Inordertostudythethermalregimeofthepermafrostandtomoreaccuratelydefinethelowerlimitsofthefrozenzone,temperatureprobeswereinstalledat13locations.TheselocationsareshownonTable'1undertheheading"Instrumentation"andthegraphsofreadingstakentodateare.shownon.Plates0-13through0-15.Itisstilltooearlytoreachdefiniteconclusionsfromthelimiteddataobtatnedsinceinstallationduetothefactthatheatwasintroducedintotheregime.bydrillingandequilibriummaynotyetbereestablished.However,itappearsthatthereadingsdosupporttheconclusionthatpermafrps.tisnotaswidespreadorasdeepaswaspreviousbelieved.Ofequalsignificanceisthefactthatthetemperatureprobesindicatethatthetemperatureswithinthepermafrostaregenerallywithin1degreeoffreezing.Constructionincoldregious'hasshownthat,withinthisrange,materialscanbeexcavated~ithconsiderablylessdificultythaninareaswherethepermafrosttemperaturesarelower.Particularlyinborrowareas,wherearatherlargeareacanbeexposed,degradationisrapidandbyalternating.fromsidetosideinthearea,thematerialcanberipped,leftexposedtothesunfora614 fewhoursandthenha~dledi~t~enormalfashion.ThefragileHat.~,"~eofth~pe:mafrostre~1meas1ndlca~edbytemperaturestudiesWillb'e'ofprlmelmportance}n.theschedullngrelat~dtofoundationgrouting."Permafrostbarelywlthlnthefrozenrangewl11bemucheasiertothaw'andfoundationgroutingwillbefacilitated.Asexplorationsatthedamsitecontinue,theinstallationoffrostprobeswillbeexpandedtoprovidedetailedknowledgeoftheextentofexistingpermaforstareasaswellastheirconditfon.Adiscussionofdesigntypeofprobesinstalledandthedegreeofaccuracyto.beexpectedfromdatareadingscanbefoundunderUInstrumentation.1IGroundWaterGroundwaterconditionsintheterracearea'northofthespillwayalinementwereexaminedduringexploratorydri11ing,buttheuseof'drillingmudusedformostoftherotarydrillingmadedirectwatertablemeasurementsdifficult.Perviouszoneswereoccasionallyencoun-teredwherelossofdrillingmudwasnoted.ExamplesareDR-22wheremudlosseswereexperiencedofapproximately50gallonsperfootofholedrilledbetweenelevations2,025and2,000feetandlossesofapproximately14gallonsperfootofholedrilledbetweenelevation1,940and1,855feet.Inaveryfewinstanceswatertablescouldbemeasuredatthetimeofdrilling.AnotableexampleofartesianheadwasmeasuredwhiledrillingDR~13andDR-14.Inbothoftheseholesthegroundwaterwasundersufficientheadtorisefromelevation2,240and2,270feet,respectively,toelevation2,300+feetwhentheoverlyingclaylayerwas.penetratedbythedri'll.,-'AdiscussionoftheoverburdenunitsencounteredintheterraceareacanbefoundundertheheadingIIRelictChannelArea.1IItwillbenotedinthatdiscussionthatatleasttwodepositsoflakesedimentswereencounteredwhichappeartoberatherextensive•.Asmightbeexpected,perchedwaterwasencounteredabovethehtgherdeposit,LakeWoller,insomeholesbecauseoftheimpermeabilityof'thematerial.InthealluvialzonesbetweenthelakedepositswaterWasusuallyencoun-teredalthough,aspreviouslynoted,inonlyoneinstancewasthiswaterunderartesianhead.Belowthelowerlakedeposit,approximateelevation2,190feet,theglacialtillswereverycompactandcanbeexpectedtoberelativelyimper.vi.ous~Theoverconsolidationofthesematerialsaspreviouslystatedisprobablyduetobeingoverloadedbytheweightoficeinglacialtimes.Thesignificanceofgroundwaterconditions.inthisarealiesinthefactthatthedeepdepositsintherelictchannelareawillbeunderaheadofapproximately400feetfromtheproposedWatanareser-voir.Thedecisionastowhetherornotanimpervtouscutoffacrossthischannelisnecessarydependsontheperviousnatureofthematerials615II encountered.Whileamoredetailedprog~amofexploring,sampling,andtestingwillbeundertakentoensurethatperviouslayerswillnotpresentaseepagedangerinthisarea,itispresentlybelievedthatnoimperviousbarrieris'required.Amoredetaileddiscussionoftherationaleinsupportofthisbeliefcanbefoundundertheheadi'ng"SeepageControl,RelictChannel.".ReservoirGeologyTheWatanareservoirincludessevengeneralzonesofgeology,asindicatedbyPlateD-5(WatanaReservoirSurficialGeology)•.Glacialfill,outwash,andproglacia1lakedepositspredominateinthemean-deringreachesoftheriverupstreamoftheOshetnaRiverconfluence.Thenextzoneextendsdownstream'alongtheincisedchanneltoJayCreekandKosinaCreek,andincludeslocalizedsedimentaryandalluvialunitswithmetamorphicssuchastheVeeCanyonschist~Thepredominat-ingdior;ticgneissandamphiboliteislacedwithbandsofmicaschist,pyroxenite,andaugengneissthatareinferredtocorrespondwithcontactandshearzonestrendingnortheast.TheareaaroundJayandKosinaCreeksanddownstreamtoWatanaCreekincludestwozonesWithoutcropsofhighgradeschistandbasaltflowsattheriverlevel.Thesurround-inghillsarecomposedofvolcanicswithlimestoneinterbedsonthesouth,andmixedvolcanicsandnearsurfaceintrusivestothenorthforaminimumof10miles.TheWatanaCreekareaconsists'ofbasaltflowsandsemiconso1idatedpredominatelyclasticsedimentsoverlainbythickglacialandoutwashdeposits.This,areaalsocontainstheTa1ke~tnaThrustasidentifiedbytheU.S.GeologicalSurvey.DownstreamofWatanaCreeklietheremainingtwounits,startingwithmoderatelymetamorphosedsediments(phyllite,argillite,graywacke)withtwobandsofschist.Thefinalunit,startsjustupstreamofDeadmanCreekandincludesallmaterialsdownstreamtoFogCreekbelowthedamsite.Thepredominatetypesarethediorites,granites,andmigmatitesofthedamsitepluton.TheWatanareservoirincludesmanypermafrostareas,especiallyon'northfacingslopes.Frozenoverburdenwilltendtosloughasthereservoirisfilledandthepermafrostdegrades.Since'mostofthe,lowercanyonelevationsarecoveredwithonlyshallowoverburdendeposits,sloughingwillbeminorandhaveminimaleffectsuponthereservoir.Deepoverburdendeposits,mostlyofglacialorigin,occuraboveapproxi-mateelevation2,000feetwheretheslopesflattenoutintoabroadrivervalleybaselevel.Mostoftheseglacialdepositswillbestabledueto'theflattopography.Somerockandoverburdenlandslidedepositshaveoccurredwithinthereservoirarea.Onesuchslidedeposit,knownastne"SlideBlock,"islocateduj)streamoftheaxisonthesouthbankoPPos,ite"TheFins"shear.SeveraloldandpotentiallandslidesareidentifiedbyKachadoorianandMooreintheirreconnaissanceoftheprojectarea.616 Ingeneralterms,thegeology;ntheimmediatedamsiteiscontrolledbythedioriteintrusive\believedtobethetopofastockwhichupliftedthesurroundingsediments~andvolcanicsandwaslatererodedbyglaciers.Subsequentglacialandstreamdepositionhasmaskedmuchoftheflatuplandareasandstreamvalleys.DAMDESIGNDamFoundationTreatmentMainDam:Foundationconditionsaremorethanadequateforcon-struttionof~nearth-rockfi11dam.The~nder1yingrockisadioriteorgranodioritewhich,innonfracturedfreshsamples,hadunconfinedcompressivestrengthsthatrangedfrom18,470to29,530psi.Onlytheuppermost20to40feetofthisrockiscloselyfracturedandsuffi-cientlyweatheredtorequireremovalwithinthecorearea.Stripping'depthsalongthecenterlinesectionareshownonPlate0-7.Strippingtosound.foundationrockisrequiredfortheentirelengthandwidthoftheimperviouscore.Foundationtreatmentwithintherockexcava-tionareawillincluderemovalofallTooseandhighlyfracturedrockandsoftmaterials,cleanup,anddentaltreatment._Ifthereareanyzoneswheremorethanan8footwidthofsoftmaterialsisremoved,thedentalconcretewillbecontactgroutedtotheadjoiningrock.Strippingtorockwillalsoberequiredundertheremainderoftheembankmentarea.However,inthisareaexcavationwillnotincluderemovaloftheinp1acerock.Onlythelooseandsever1yweatheredsurfacerockwillberemoved.Steeporoverhangingrockwallswillbetrimmedtoasmoothshapeforproperplacement'ofembankmentmaterials.Exploratorydrillingin1978hasshownthematerialsintheriverchanneltobeawellgradedmixtureofgravelsandcobblesasgood,orbetter,thanthematerialsthatwouldbeusedtoreplacethem.Astheexplorationprogramcontinues,thesegravelswillbemorecompletelyexploredanditmaybedemonstratedatthattimethatthereisnoneedfortheirremovalbeneaththeshellzones.Shouldthisprovetobethecase,thechangecanbemadeduringfeaturedesign.-"'Provisionhasbeenmadefora6-by8-footconcretegroutinggallerywithconcreteliningtobeconstructedinfoundationrockundertheimperviouscore.Thisgallerywillbeginate1evati'on1,900feetontheleftabutmentandwillterminateate1evatton1,800feetontherightabutment.Itwillprovide'accessfordrillingandgroutingwhich,insomeareasmaybe,delayedtoallowthawingofpermafrost.AccesstothegallerywillbeprovidedfromthepowerholJseonthe,leftabutmentand,byadit,fromthedownstreamtoeoftherightabutment.Groutingwillbeonasinglelineofholesutilizingsp1its'pacing,stagegrout-ingtechniques.GroutholeswillbeslantedupstreamandmaybeinclUded617 tointerceptthedominanthighanglenorthwesttendingfracturesystem.Preliminarygroutholedepthsareestimatedattwo-thirdstheheightoftheembankmenttoamaximumdepthof300feetwithprimaryspacingof20-feet,secondaryspacingof10feet,andtertiaryspacingof5feetwithadditionalholesasrequired.Determinationoffinalgroutholedepths,spacing,inclination,groutmixtures,andgroutingmethodswillbedependentontheresultsoffutureexplorations,permeabilitystudies,testgrouting,andperma-frostthawinginvestigations.RockpermeabilitytestresultsareshownonthedrilllogspresentedonPlates0-28throughD-37.Coefficientsofpermeability(K)werecomputediiifeetper"minutetimes10-4.Permeabilitycoefficientsrangedfrom0.0to23.1andaverage4.9forthoseholesthatweretested.Drillholesintheleftabutmentareaindicatedverylowpermeabilityduetopermafrost.RiversectionholeDH-lhadvariablepermeabilitycoefficientsthatrangefrom0.48to2.52andaveraged1.98.Drillwaterreturnsin.theriverholeswerequitevariablethroughouttheentireholedepthsandtendedtodropofftolowpercentagesatthegreaterdepthsintheaxisarea.Rightabutmentdrillholeshadperme-abilitycoefficientsthatrangedfrom0.0to23.09andaveraged5.47.DH-10wastheonlyholetestedthathadrelativ~lylowpermeatiilitycoefficientsthroughout.Drillwaterreturnshadsimilarpatternswithvariablepercentagelosses.OH-7andDH-9had0percentreturnsthrough-outandDH-8andDH-llmaintainedhighpercentagesofdrillwaterreturnsthroughout.Theexistenceofpermafrostintheleftabutmentandthepossibi-lityofminoramountsintherightabutmentnecessitatesassessmentoftheproblemofthawingazoneinthefoundationbedrocksufficientlywideanddeeptoallowproperinstallationofthegroutcurtain.Inanticipationofthisneed,theU.S.ArmyColdRegionsResearchandEngineeringLaboratorywasaskedtodoadeskstudyonthaWingtheper-manentlyfrozenbedrock.TheTechnicalNotewhichwassubmittedinresponsetotherequestisincludedasExhibitD~4.EmbankmentDesignDesignofthedamembankmentatWatanadamsite.hasbeenbasedontheavailabilityandproximityofconstructionmaterialsinadditiontotheirsuitabilityasengineeringmaterials.Asaresultofthesecon-siderations,theembankmentcontainsacentralsectionconsistingofanimperviouscorebuttressedonthedownstreams.idebyasemiperviouszone.618 Thiscentralsectionissupported,bothupstreamanddownstream,bysuitablefineandcoarsefiltersandrockfil1shells.Atypicalcross-sectionoftheembankmentisshownonPlate0-9.Theimperviouscore.andsemiperviouszonewi11beconstructedusingtheglacialtillwhichisreadiTyavailableinthe,area.Thesemi-perviousmaterialwillbeobtainedbyselectingthecoa,rsergrainedmaterialswhilethefinermaterialswillbeplacedintheimperviouszone.Thesematerials,asdiscussedunder"EmbankmentMateria1s,"havebeenshownbyexplorationandtesttobeawellgr~dedmixture,which,whencompacted,hasaverygoodshearstrengthandahighdegreeofimpermeability.Testshaveshownthatthismaterialisquitesensitivetomoisturecontrol;therefore,specialattentionmustbepaidtothisaspectofthedesignandconstruction.The14,000,000cubicyardsrequiredareavailablewithinaveryreasonable.hauldistanceandwillonlyrequireremovalofoversizeboulderspriortouse.ThefinefiltermaterialcanbeobtainedfromthegravellysanddepositatthemouthofTsusenaCreek.Chart0-3showsanenvelopeofgradationsfromthissourcesuperimposedontotheenvelopeforthefinefilterasestab1ishedbyengineeringdesigncriteria.ThiscomparisonindicatesthattheTsusenaCreeksourcecanprovidematerialwithintherangesofsizesnecessarytoprotectthecoreandsemiperviouszoneagainstpipingormig'rationofftnesintothefiltermaterial.Provensourcesofgravelwhichcanyieldlargequantitiesofmaterialarescarcewithinshorthauldistancesoftheproject.Forthisreason,thededsionwasmadetousematerialfromtherockfil1sourceasacoarsefilter.Chart0-5isanenvelopeoftherequiredgradationwhichwillprovideproperfilteringactionforthefinefiltermaterial.Acurvehasbeensuperimposedonthisenvelopewhichrepresentsthematerialsexpectedfromtherockfillsource.Asindicated,therockfil1willprovidetheproperfilteraction.Themaximumsizematerialinthecoarsefilterandtheliftthickness-forplacementwill,ofcourse,belimitedtoensuredesi-gncriteriaar~met.Thedecisiontoutilizerockfi11ratherthangravelfortheembank-mentshellsw~smadewhenreconna;slanc~andexplorationindicatedthatdependabledepositsofgravelswhichwouldprovidethenecessaryquanti-tiescouldnotbeverifiedwithinreasonablehauldistancesofthedam-site.Ontheotherhand,rockff11canbereadilyobtainedasdiscusledunder"EmbankmentMaterials."Riprapforwaveprotectioncanbeobtainedfromthesamesource.Itisrecognizedthatthe1verticalon2to2.25horizontalside-slopesshownonthetypicalcrosssectionforthedamareconservativeforarockfi11dam,and,ifrockfi11isused,theseslopeswillbere-finedinaccordancewithsoundengineeringpractice.Refractionseismic619 linesintheborrowareasshowvelocitieswhichcouldrepresentlargedepositsofgravelsorglacialmaterialsbutratherextensiveexplora-tionswillberequiredtoverifythetruenatureandquantityofthematerials.ShouldtheseexplorationsrevealthatsuitablegraveldepositsintheCireaaresufficientlyextensivetoprovidethelargequantitiesrequiredforthedamshellsections,thegravelwill~eusedinpreferencetoborrowingquarriedrockforrockfill.PowerhouseatldUndergroundStructuresAnundergroundpowerhousei"swellsuitedtomeettherestrictionsofsubarcticweatherandotherenvi·ronmentalfactors.Topographically,thenarrowSusitnaCanyoniswellsituatedforthistypeofundergroundconstruction.Thedioriteplutonthatunderliesthe.foundationareaisexpectedtobecompetentforexcavationandsupportofundergroundfacilites,butthelocationanddesignofthevariou~structuresmayhavetobeadjustedinsomeareas.liTheFinsllandIIFingerbusterllShearZonesshownon"PJatep-3anddiscussedinparagraphIIRockStructurellarethetwomostsignificantshearswithin'thedamsitearea.Othernorthwesttrendingsteepangledminorshearsinvolvingdisplacementsofafractionofaninchuptoafewfeetarecommoninthesiteareaandwerenotedinmanyofthedrillholes.Theseminorshearsappeartorepresentmassadjustmentstoregionalstressandcompensationcanbemadeforthemindesignandconstructionoftheunderg.roundstructures.Priorto'powerhouseexcavation,exploratoryaditslocatednearthecrownofthevariouschamberswillbedriventoconfirmfinaldesigncri·teria.Thechamberswillbeconstructedwithstraightwallsasrequiredformaximumdimensions,andnotnotchedorcutirregualarlyforsupportofinteriorpowerhousefacilities.Rocksupportwillincludepatternboltsconsistentwithwallandcrownconditions.Useofsteelchannelingandremedialconcreteisanticipatedinlocalareaswherefanoutmayoccurorinfracturezoneshavingasubstantialwidthofcrushedrock.'Wiremeshwillbeutilizedwherenecessaryasatemporaryfacilitypriortoplacingconcrete.Athinlayerofwirereinforcedshotcretemaybeplacedonthemainpowerhousechamberwallsandcrownasaprotectivemeasureagainstrockraveling.Additionalshotcretewillbeutilized,asrequired,tosealsurfacesandretain.rockstrengths.ConstructionmethodsintheJargechamberswillincludecontrolledblast-ingandrockremovalinliftsfromthetopdownward.Gutterandfloorslopingfordrainagewillbeprovidedintheinteriorstructuresbetweenchambers.IntakeStructureConsolidationgroutingmaybenecessaryfortheintakestructur~foundationandthebridgepierfootings.The.higherbridgepierfootingsw~llalsoberecessedintosoundrock.Tunnelportalswill.:,:620 bedesignedsothatthereisaminimumoftwotunneldiametersofsoundrockabovetheheadingwheretheygounderground.Initialtunnelsupportwillbebypatternbolts,withsteelchannelingandwiremeshwherenecessaryincloselyfracturedareas.Majorshearzoneswillrequiresteelsupports.Hydraulicandgeologicconsiderationswill·necessitatefinalconcrete)iningsforallbuttheaccesstunnels,andsteel1inersforthepenstocks.·Groutri.ngswillberequiredinthe.penstockportalareas.Thetwodiversiontunnelsaretobeseparatedbyaminimumoffourtunneldiameterstoprovidegreaterstructuralstability.Downstreamdiversiontunnelportalswillhavetobe.locatedtoavoidtheIIFingerBuster"shearzonetoinsureadequateportalconstructionconditions.Spillwayd.Thegatedspi11wayhasbeenrelocatedabout800feetsoutheastofthealinementpresentedinthe1976reportsothatitwillbeconstructedinathroughrockcut.Thespillwaywillbeunlinedbeyondthespill-waygatestructureandapron.ThenewspillwayalinementextendingfromtheSusitnanorthvalleywalltoTsusenaCreekandthespillwaygradientareshownonPlatesB-2andB-5.Itisanticipatedthat,withtheexceptionofminoramountsofwaste,alltheexcavated·materialsfromthespillwaywillbeusedinthedamembankment~Themajorpartoftheexcavationisinrockandthismaterialwillbeusedintheshellsections.Theoverburdenmaterialsareglacialtillwhich,whenseparatedfromtheboulderscanbeusedin.theimperviousorsemiper-viouszones.SeepageControl-.RelictChannelTherelictchannelareaisanoverburdenterraceunderlainbyabedrockdepression,andextendsnorthwardfromtherightabutmentforabout6,000feet•.Thisterraceiscomposedofglacialtill,someofwhichhasbeenreworkedbyalluvialaction.Forthisreason,consid-erationwasgiventothepossibilityofseepagethroughthearea·whererockcontoursarebelowtheproposedreservoirelevation.However,preliminaryseepagecalculationsindicatethatevenintherelictchannelarea,wheretheheaddifferentialapproaches350feet,andusingaveryconservative'k'valueof500feetperday,theseepagewouldbelessthan0.02cubicfeetpersecondperfootofwidthforaperviouslayerassumedtobe80feetthick.Assumingsuchalayertobe200fe.etwide,theseepagewouldbeintheorderof4cubicfeetpersecond,whichisaminoramount.Theexitvelocitiesassociatedwithsuchseepagewotttdbe.toolowtocauseseriouspipingorerosion.Investigationsduringthesummerof1978supportthisconclusion.InholesDR-13andDR-14,locatedinthevicinityofBorrowAreaIID,IIgroundwaterwasencounteredinalluviallayersbetweenelevation2,240",:621 and2,280feetwithanartesianheadwhichexceededtheproposedreser-voirlevelby100feet.Inspiteofthishighheadcondition,noevidencewasfoundindicatingseepageoutof.thislayerintoeitherDeadmanCreekorTsusenaCreek.Indeed,itisprobablethattheeffectofthisartesianwater,whichevidentlyhasitsaccesstothealluviallayerintheupperreachesofTsusenaorDeadmanCreek,wouldbetoresistflowfromthereservoirintotheaquifer.BecausemudlossesinOR-22,1ocatedatthecenterofthere1ictchannel,indicated thepossibilityofpermeable.1ayersatapproximateelevations1,900and2,000feet,afallingheadpermeabilitytestwasperformedatthishole.Thepermeabilitiescalculatedfromthistestareafurtherindicationtheseepagethroughtheterracewouldbeminorornonexistent.Conse-quently,itwasunnecessarytoincludeany,cutoffthroughthesaddleandrelictchannelarea.·.CONSTRUCTIONMATERIALSRockShellMaterials:RockshellmaterialsmaybeobtainedfromtwoquarrylocationsshownonPlates0-10and0:-11.-.622 Quarrysiteswerelocatedontheleftabutmentofthedam(QuarrySource'AI)andinthenorthwestquadrantoftheconfluenceofDeadmanCreekandtheSusitnaRiver"(QuarrySource'BI}.TheQuarrySource(A)ontheleftabutmentisanoutcropofigneousrockranginginelevationfromapproximately2t300to2t630feet.Thetotalvolumeofthehillabovethesurroundingterrainisapproximately200millioncubicYardsofrock.Developmentwouldconsistofopenfacesonthenorthflankofthedomewiththefinal'quarryflooratanelevationof2t300feet.Thistypeofdevelopmentwouldmaintainthevisibleprofileofthehillessentiallyasitisnow.Theresulting~quarryfloorcouldprovideanidealsiteforparkingareastvisitorfacilitiestandperhapsttheswitchyard.--Thematerialinthehillisadioriteonthewesternsideandarhyodaciteporphoryontheeasternhalf.Theappearanceofoutcropingsandexposedfacesofeachmaterialindicatesthatthehilliscomposedofsoundrock.Theproductofthisquarryw,"llbeusedfortherockfillshellzonesofthedamandinthecoarsefilterandriprap.Thissite(QuarryIAI)representsthenearestsourceofadequatequantitiesofrockmaterialsforthedam.Fromtheapproximatecenterofthequarrytotheapproximatecenterofthedamisadistanceof4tOOOfeetand_movementofmaterialwouldbedownhill.Ifproperlydevelopedtvirtuallyallofthematerialremovedfromthequarrywillbeusedinthedamandtheoversizematerialtoverburdenandweatheredwastematerialcanbedisposedofimmediatelyadjacenttothequarryinthereservoirareaupstreamofthedam.ThequarrysourceattheconfluenceofDeadmanCreekandtheSusitnaRiver(Source'B')couldbedevelopedbyexcavatingrockfromtheopenfacesvisibleonDeadmanCreekandcontinuingthedevelopmentofafacetothewestwardtmaintaining thefacebetweenelevationlt700and2tOOOfeet.StrippingandclearingwouldbeminimizedbydevelopingalongtnarrowquarryparallelingtheriverandusingthequarryfloorasahaulroadforthelengthofdevelQpment.Ifexploited-,inthiswaytthequarrycouldyield17tOOOtOOOcubicyardsofmaterial.Therockexposedinthisareaisamoderatelyweathereddiorite.Theproductofthisquarrycouldbeusedontherockfillshellsectionsofthedam.ThedistancefromthecenteroftheQuarryIB'tothecenterofthedamisapproximately2miles.Theonlyreasonforuti1izingthisquarrysourceinsteadoftheQuarry'A'ontheleftabutmentwouldbethelessenedenvironmentalimpactsincethequarryatDeadmanCreekwouldbeentirelyinthereservoirarea.Howevertsincethehauldistanceisgreaterandthe62369-7380 -80-40 netenvironmentalimpactoftheQuarryIAIontheleftabutmentissmall,thisareaisalessdesirablesourceofembankmentmaterials.Core·Materia1:Imperviousandsemiperviousmaterialscanbeexcavatedfromtheglacialtillswhicharepresentatthedamsite.Themostlogicalsourceofgla~ia1tillappearstobeinanareadenotedasBorrowArea101whichliesbetweenDeadmanCreekandthesaddleonth.enorthsideofthedam(seePlateD-11)...Explorationinthisareawasaccomplishedbydrillingwithatrack-mounted,self-propelledaugeranda.Fai1ing1500rotarydrill,bytestpittingwithabackhoe,andbyuseofseismicrefractionmethods.Fiveholeswerecompletedusingtheairrotarydrill,14holeswerecompletedusingtheauger,14pitswerecompletedwiththebackhoe,and4seismicrefractionlineswereextendedacrosstheproposedlimitsoftheborrowarea.Thematerialintheareaiscomposedofasur.facelayerofnaturalgroundcoverofrootsandmoss,approximately2feetofbouldersandorganicsilts.underlainbythetillswhichareclassifiedasgravellysi1tysands..Theti11srangefrom15to25feetthick.andusuallyover-lieaclay,sandygravellyclayandsiltysandy·gravel..Sacksamplesfromthetestpits(inBorrowAreaD)weretestedattheNorthPacificDivisionMaterialsLaboratorytodeterminegradations,compaction,consolidationcharacteristics,permeability';andtriaxialshearstrength.Gradationtestswererunoneachsamplefromeachtestpit.AnenvelopeofthegradationcurvesderivedfromthetestsofsamplesfromTestPits8through19isshownonChart0-2.Becausetherangeofgradationsofmaterialsfromthetestpitscentrallylocated'intheareais1imfted,acompositesamplewasformed.Useofacompositesample.wasnecessarytoprovideadequatematerialforarepresentativetestingprogramsinceretrievaloflargebulksamplesfromthesitewasnotpossible.Thecoefficientofpermeability(K20)fortheminus.l-inchfractionofthetillmaterial,compactedto95percentofmaximumdensitywithanoptimumwatercontentof7.5percentequals10.90X10-6cm/sec.Thisrelatively.lowcoefficientofpermeabilityiscoupledwithanadequateshearstrengthattheoptimumwatercontent,acceptablecon-solidationvaluesevenwhenloadedto32tons/sqftandanarrowbandofgradationthroughoutthecentralportionoftheoutlinedborrowarea.Theshapeofthecompactioncurvesindicatesthatmoisture.contentiscriticalinobtainingmaximumdensitieswithapronouncedpeakattherelativelylowoptimummoisturecontentof7.S.percent.Theresultsofthetriaxialcompressiontestsindicatethatintheunsaturatedandundrainedconditiontheglacialtillswillbesensitive624 tomoisturecontentshigherthanoptimumbutthatifplacedonthedrysideofoptimumtheywillmaintainstrengthessenttallyequaltothoseobtainedwhenplacedatoptimum.Theresultsofthistestingprogramindicatethattheglacialtillscanbeplacedandcompactedtoprovideasuitablematerialforboththeimperviousandsemiperviouszones•.Thes'pecificationswillneedtoprovideforclosecontrolsofthemoisturecontentandthequalityassuranceprogramswillhavetobeadequatelystaffedtoprovideforcarefulchecksofmoisturecontentintheperviousandsemipervious,fill.DetailedlaboratoryreportsofthetestsconductedareincludedasCharts0-6throughD-29.ThematerialsfromBorrowArea0\canbeusedwithverylittleprocessing.Thegroundcoverandorganicsiltsandboulderswillbestr.ippedfromthesurfaceanddisposedofasdesignatednearthemouthofDeadmanCreekinthereservoirarea.Theremainderofthematerialcanbeutilizedinthecoreoftheembankmentifoversize,(l2:inchplus)materialisremovedbymechanicallYrakinginthepitorontheembank-mentfill.Lessthan10percentofthematerialwillbetoolargetouseinthecore.Sinceremovalofonlythesilty,sandygravelabovetheclayswillresultinthefloorofBorrowArea'01beingabovereservoir elevation,itwi11benecessarytocontourandseedtheborrowareaafterthecompletionofremovalofmaterialsasarestor,a-tionmeasure.Approximately630acreswillberestored.'FilterMaterial:ThenearestsourceofcleansandsandgravelsforuseinthefinefilteroftheembankmentdamisanalluvialdepositformedbymaterialswashedoutofTsusenaCreekanddepositedattheconfluenceofTsusenaCreekandtheSusitnaRive~ontherightbankoftheSusitna(BorrowArea'E',seePlate0-12).Hauldistancetothedamrangesfrom3to5miles.Thisareawasexploredbydigging5testpitstoadepthof8feetusingabackhoemountedonasmalltractor.Thematerialinthisareaiscomposed'ofapproximately2feetoforganic,sandysiltoverlaying6feetofclean,wellgradedsands'andgravelshavingmaximum,siz.eparticlesofupto4.inchesindiameter.Thematerialsaresound,wellroundedparticles.Thebottomsofthetestpitsindicatethepossibilitythatthematerialsdeeperthan8feetbelowthegroundsurfacecontainupto50percentofbouldersinexcessof8iQchesindiameterandrangingupto,24inchesindiameter.The6feetofmaterialwhichliesabovetheboulders,may'beusedintheembankmentwithrequi'redprocessinglimitedtosomeblendingandremovalofmateriallargerthan12inchestoproducefinefiltermaterial.AnenvelopeofgradationcurvesderivedfromtestsofsamplesfromTP-lthroughTP-5is,showninChart0-1.Allofthesamplesarefromthefirst8feetofmaterial.Allofthismaterialliesabove-,625 thewatertableandcanbetakenbyfrontloaders.Thequantityofmaterialavailableinthefirst8feetisapproximately3.7millioncubicyards.Afterthebouldersareencounteredatadepthof8feet,theoversizematerialwillhavetoberemovedandmaterialbelowthewatertablewillhavetobebailedfromthearea.Adikewillbemaintainedtoseparatetheborrowoperationsfromtheriversoth~tallturbiditycreatedbytheexcavationofmaterialswillbefiltered.orsettlepriortoenteringtheSusitnaRiver.Intermsofgrading,particlesoundnessandproximity,thisarearepresentsanexcellentsourceofessentialfiltermaterials.ThesecondareainwhichcleansandsandgravelswerelocatedisintheupperreachesofTsusenaCreek,northofTsusenaButte(BorrowAreaICI)•.Thematerialsaresound,wellroundedparticlesandarewellgradedwithmaximumsizesgenerallylessthan4inches.Consider-ableexploratoryeffortwouldbenecessarytoensurequalityandquantityofmaterialsbeforethiscouldbeconsideredanacceptablesource.Becauseofthehauldistanceof12miles,thissourcewi.llnotbecon-sideredunlessfurtherexplorationsandtestingindicatethat,adequatematerialsmaynotbeobtainedfromthesourcesclosertothedamsite.ExplorationatSiteICIwasaccomplishedbydiggingonetestpit,reconnaissanceoftheareaonfootandfromhelicopter,andwithaseismicsurvey.ConcreteAg9regates:Approximately310,000cubicyardsofconcretewillberequiretoconstructtheappurtenantstructuresforanembank-mentdamatWatanadamsite.Mostofthiswillbestructuralconcreteplacedintunnellinings,the'powerp1ant,gatestructures,intakestruc-tures,andspillwaychannellining.Maximumsizeaggregatewillbe3inchesinallbutthesmallerstructuresorthosewithcloselyspacedreinforcing.ThemostreadilyavailablesourceofconcreteaggregateisavailableattheconfluenceofTususenaCreekandtheSusitnaRiver(BorrowArealEI).Thematerialsfromthefirst8feetinthealluviumcanbeutilizedwithonlylimitedscreening.Asoversize.materialsareencounteredatgreaterdepths,thelargerparticleswillbecrushedforuseintheconcreteaggregate,therebyachievingmaximumutilizationofgravelsfromtheareaandalsotoincreasethetensilestrainresis-tanceoftheconcretewhichwilllessenproblemswiththermalcracking1nthemoremassivesections.SinceBorrowAreaErepresentsthemosteconomicalsourceofconcreteaggregateandthenearestacceptablesourceofessentialfiltermaterial,maximumutilizationofthematerialinthisareaisrequired.ApetrographicanalysisofsandsandgravelsfromBorrowAreaEwasconductedbytheMissouriRiverDivisionLaboratoryatOmaha,Nebraska.Theresultsshowthematerialtobeapproximately70percent626 graniticrockwiththeremaindercomposedofbas~lt,andesite,andryholite.Chertispresentinsuchsmallquantitiesastobenondele-terious.Thequarrysiteontheleftabutment(QuarrySourceIAI)iscon-sideredanalternatesourceofconcreteaggregate.Ifmaterialfromthequarrywereusedintheembankmentdamaggreg~tecouldbeproducedbyplacingacrushingandscreeningplantihthequ~rryandproducingtheconcreteaggregateincidentaltotheproductionofembankmentmaterial.Theconcreteaggregateswouldbeproducedfromthediorites.inthequarrytoavoidthepotentialofproblemscausedbythereactionofthealkalisintheconcre.tewiththerhyodaciteporphoryintheeasternhalfofthehill.ThematerialsinupperTsusenaCreek(BorrowSourceICI)wouldproduceexcellentconcreteaggregate;however,becauseofthehauldistanceinvolved(lOmiles),itisnotanticipatedthatthissourcewouldbeexploitedtoproduceconcreteaggregateunlessembankment.materials,arealsotakenfromth~~samesource.Itisanticipatedthatbecauseoftherelativelysmallquantitiesofrequiredconcreteaggregatecomparedtothelargequantitiesofthevariousclassesofembankmentmaterials,thatconcreteaggregateswillbeproducedincidentaltotheproductionofembankmentmaterialandstockpiledadjacenttothebatchplantsused.Thefirstconcreterequiredontheprojectwillbethatrequiredtolinethediversiontunnelsandformgateandtrashrackstructuresforriverdiversion.TheaggregateforthisworkcouldbeproducedfromBorrowAreaEwitharesultinghauldistanceof2.3miles.627 o 10 20 10 "I.to ~ 50 1u 60 1 70 1 IMIIOMIIIIu.s.....lei OI'II_G ..-.ae u.s.lT~lei NIPIIII ,."1 ~""3 ••"0 1.162030 .to 50 70 1OO1.tO 200-.••2 I \"I ,I I I I .I"I I ,I ,(I to \"~ \"I\. •~"\."70 .\'\ \. : 60 ."'\"\......., _."-. "- .0 r\I '".......... 30 "r\ """'\ 20 "1,1 I'~I , •""~......,"'- I"--' , • 1 ~ I I'.r ~ '~1°1 I I I 1111 II II I 111111 I I I JII " I I',!::1',11111 I I t I 111111 II I I~ l::' I .....01 I I I I I I I I I I (I I I I I I I I ',I I I I I I I I I 'I·I I I I I ( I I I I I I !I ..I I'1100 500 100 50 10 5 GItA7N •M7LL 0.5 ~.I 0~0.5 0.01 0.005 0.001 • [CCIUS I COMII ,-1M I COMII I '.__SAND~1M I SILT 01 CLAY I 0-Vco Envelope of gradation curves derived from tests of samples from test pits.1 thru 5,Borrow area E. ~ u.s.ITNCWID 181 01'8 •.0 If tete u.s.IT~~Nl17 III.H¥DIOMI1H 10 20 • 90 10 :1 Ii• 50 I 8 60 1 70 1 100o.OC)10.01 «r.MS" .T 01 CiA,SAND MIOIlIM I ... 105GRAINSIZEMILLIMETEts 0.1 0;05 ~I ... OIlA\II\ 50 10 .5100 COIUS 500 ••s ~.1~I ~~s ••110 1.16 20 •••70 1001.200-I~.....t"'.l'I',,I I ,, I I' I-r-r---........ to .....r--.....-r--.f-...too. ..................... 10 • ""....·,...... 1oooo.. ...........'""-70 .........I'.. ""~60 I....."l'.: 1'\"'50 \.~ I ".......0 )~......~ i "-'"30 "- I I'1'.... I20 :I . ~~ "-~ l10""'~ 0 .-- 1 I Ii ·9~ .M t::l I N I~I ~ -0 tJ E Envelope of gradation curves derived from tests of s~lesfrom test pits 8 thru 19,Borrow area D. 0'-c,,'o .~ !::;j I V-1 U.S.STANDAID.-vI ~If INCf8 U.s.STNCWID .-w NUMIIIS Ht'DIOMIIII,4 l 1~1 ~~..3 4 ,1 10 14"20 ••50 70 100 1.0 200 0I_I"-~,I'I , ,I I I .,, ........." 90 10....~" ~~~"2010~IN to Fj DE SIG~I'\.,r ~:~ I'..I'~I.--'~ 70 I'..i":1160 ./ i'..K I.•I'i'. "-V '\I'..-~Jt~~H IE ~E'==v ..,~~• 50 II50I"~L,.;V I'"~..0 I .... " ....I 60 1,"~~U•''-•r '\."'70 r30[\.'"'\ \.'\ 1020 I I '\i'",~9010~.~I'--"r-.....-~"'-r-...-l-I-1000 500 100 50 10 5 1 0.5 0.1 0.05 0.01 0.005 0.001GRAINSIZEMILLIMETERS I I GllAYIl I COAISI I .SAND I SllT 011 ciA y ICOUlISCOAIIII....MeDIUM I .... IAMNNO.BlVOIIlIf'IIt QASSPlCA1lON NAT~11 1'\".. IIlIOJKT MIA .. IOIlNGNO. GlADATION CU.VIS .00\11 GRADATION ENVELOPES -BORROW AREA E SUPERIMPOSED ON FINE FILTER "'~"'''•.",C.'·''''__•7J.I 0- W- ~;+ t:l I *'" , ,, , IIlMftI NO.I BIV 01 Dmtl I ClASS.ICAYION I NAT \iII%I u.I PI.I " GlADATION CUlva GRADATION ENVELOPES -FiNE FILTERS AND IMPERVIOUS CORE I'IOJICf AlIA IOIINGNO. ~11 tn'DIOMI1Ii tmn=120 ........-..........efftCI._...-......," 0-w'~ '" -9~ rt t::l I U1 100 "" .,,,II 'r ~II " ,,,'l'I , I I II 0 \I'~90 \'""10 ~ .--\1\,""r\.,I'"~t"'1 r-II 1-1-N.10 l~1 \'\.~\(20.... 70 \"\","JH Kl Wf.f.1:. i \'",,/'\/30i, V V ..\"060 JJ60I.l.-~~~r--. =""r-...'= !K ,~\~•I 50'.' 50 =I I ,I';1\'", ;:c i 060 \,~"-0 ~"U u t-IJI 14 SPA lL~'"~"60 Z...•u t '\\i'....,• 30 I '\.\~""-70 t1\ I I'\.\~.......1\~ ~20 I!I ~I'""10 I I ," I '"~""......\...10 ! ~.....o....;.!)"TI r.............."90..........,r"'"~-""""~100-0 ......- 50000 100005000 1000 500 GRAIN sI2EOMILL~RS 10 '5 1 .!.1 SAMIU NO.I\IV 01 'Ill""QASS.ICATION NAT W"4 U.PI."I'lIOJKT AltA IOINGNO. GlADATION CURVES lloot'1I GRADATION ENVELOPES ':"COARSE FILTER AND BORROW AREA E..........-,........WftCI .......-........ ---.~------:. 0- W W ~ t::l I 0\ ',0 l1s.~~f"r u.s.STMOMO SIEVE fIUIIIlERS HVDIlOIIEIiR ,4 3 Z 1 3 4 ,•10 14 16 31 30 40:50 70 100 140 200 "I_I ....r--- I I I , I :I I I I I I :'j I I --i"'---.fo...0 ----.'..---r-.III "'"70 I'- 30..... !a:'" K col:1 60 '\.Ii Ii 1 50 -~l ,,'°1Ii:cm ~08IT b 1 "-§-'\~§It:Tl -B :1 1"'1'l.~_I._A .A i!....,,""-~~..,--T1 _,r ,_?'IV .,1J::? , " ,70 T -1 1 '1p 1 2 : Tl -1.1&2 'p if 1 ~-'1'J -J.~J.r oj.:J.°IL 'i'-.. I ....... 10 r--~r-90 0 :100 !iOO 100 50 10 5 1 o.s 0.1 0.05 0.01 o.oos 0.001 GRAIN SIZE IN MIWMETERS I COBBl£S I GRAVEL I SAND f SIlT OR aAY I,-I ..'-I -',I ME s.mple No.EJev or De!llh Cl&Iilluilbi rut ."LL Pl PI 1-__Composit No.1 Gr.8L SAND (8M)mliec WATANA DAM Area Bori...!!l.-No.Composite No.1 GRADATION CURVES NPD Dete14 NOV 1Q7A .79-8-404 ENG I:~~~3 2087 0- W oIlIo ~ ~ t::l I -....] U.S.STANDAID SIeVE OP!NNG IN IN04ES U.S;STAtC)AIID SlM NUMleIS HYDIOMETER 6 ~3 2 IV,1 JJ6 v,~,3 ~6 1 10 1~16 20 30 '0 5070100 1~200100II[II II I I I I I I I II 0 " 90 r\.10i\ 10 20\, . ~. 30i70~~\.40 JJ60~ ~r>..• 115 50 50 !z Co IIlPosi ~4 1'\i'..8It ~~o r---.I I 60 ZLr-L I~1;;1 ........~....•_~n U ~-,'"• 30 TP-3 .70 ! TP-3 .10 TP-5 12,I'. 20 ......·v I'"........80 I I '""J 9010~. ,0 100 500 100 50 10 5 1 0.5 0.1 0.05 0.01 0.005 0.001 GRAIN SIZE'MILLIMETERS I COIILES'I GRAVEL 1COARSe I SAND [SILT a.CLAY ,ICOAal!I 'INE MIOlUM I 'fINE SAMlUNO.BlVOt DEPTH CLASS.ICATION NAT.W'l!o U 1'1.PI WATANA DAMI'ltOJECI Composite No.2 Sa.GRAVEL (Gp) ~ AREA lOllING NO.Compos it e No.2 GRADATION CURVES NPD •DATE 20 NOV 1878 79-S-404 ENG FORM 20871lIt..,v 63 IEI'I.ACES WE$fOIM NO.1241,SIP 1962,WKICK 1$0IS0UlE. 1f;1.........,.N.-TI.ornel .ltII 0'-.......1. o • ._----'-~.~~--'-- NPDEN-GS-L(79-S-404)WATANADAMCompositeNo.1ReportofSpecificGravity&PermeabilityTests1.SpecificGravity&'Absorption(ASTMC127&C128)BulkBulk,SSDApparent'70Absorption3/4in.-No.42.6332.6712.7371.44MinusNo.42.6832.CoefficientofPermeability(Minus1inchmaterial)RemoldedDensity=126.6P.C.F.OptimumWaterContent=7.5%PermeabilityK20=10.90x10-6em/sec.ChartD-8635 ,3S1'"'"1\\ \\7:'..."AIt-\to"d\13()I~\IS2,":81-...f'1\1/1\\)\t:iz.sE>h..'"avI("'....!!I!J\~.\II)\z~,1\iICl'Z.o0~,\Iqli~1\--~1\;/I'115"",r--r-"...'.".......'05/01$2,02.5'WATERCONTENT.PERCENTOFDRYWEIGHTStandardCOMPACTIONTEST25ILOWSPEREACHOf3LAYERS,WITH5.5LIRAMMERAND12.0INCHDROP.4.0INCHDIAMETERMOLDSAMPLEELEVORCLASSIFICATIONGLLPL%> %>NO.DEPTHNO.43,4IN.CompoiteNo1.8i.SAND(8M)2.68--SAMPLENO.CoinpositeNp.1NATURALWATERCONTENTINPERCENTOPTIMUMWATERCONTENTINPERCENT9.3MAXDRYDENSITYINLI/CU"128.9REMARKSPROJECTWATANADAMAA8HTOT-99"iMethodAAREA'OJ,.BORINGNO.CompositeNo.1DATE14NOV1~/8NPDCOMPACTIONTESTREPORT,:::ENGFORM20911MAY63PREVIOUSEDITIONSAREOBSOLETE.636(TRANSLUCENT)•GPO:It'"OF-715-I7'ChartD-9 IW>A A1'\"\.'I,I~.C:;I:.J.,L1.-1V\\ZemII16\It"ilc;\~VlVI~oiii.(;;c2.,q-~.(0)\/\1\Ii:I~O~\:;)In<\u....~\.~V\\~\:J\1\l!l:>A\..~12SQ\'...,\\\\.12.0."......0510/520'2.SWATERCONTENT,PERCENTOFDRYWEIGHTStandardCOMPACTIONTEST56BLOWSPEREACHOf·3LAVERS,WITH5.5LBRAMMERAND12,0INCHDROP.6.0INCHDIMIETERMOLDSAMPLEELEVORCLASSIFICATIONGLLPL'Yo>'Yo>NO:DEPTHNO...%IN.CompositeNo1Gr.Si.SAND(SM)2.6913.1-/SAMPLENO.ComnositeNb.1'.NATURALWATERCONTENTINPERCENTOPTIMUMWATERCONTENTINPERCENT7.5MAXDRVDENSITYINLl/CUfT133.3REMARKSPROJECTWATANADAMAASHTO"T-99MethodDAREA.BORINGNO'CompositeNo.1DATE14NOVlq7~NPDCOMPACTIONTEST,REPORTPREVIOUSEDmoNSAREOBSOLETE..637(TRANSLUCENT)ChartD-IO A~~1.'Gr..ChartD-:llTRANSLUCENT638PREVIOUSEDITIONSAREOBSOLETE2089(EM1110.2-1902)ENGFORM,JUN65(606tJItt.!tljIt-o'~-+-H-H--~(...+-tIt'tE-t-t0'H~IfI-j•+-""E:t~D~()lj().IJ1tI,nI..-t.j11..rot~Dr--tf-i..••;t..•.•t...,,~t•fot2,0+>++ •{1HUl~rq•~'_fttIIlf~-111'1-~'.g,tjHJ.~t~()20/fa~"0/00Normalstress,0,T/sqft~TestNo.123c~0Watercont~ntVo].7'1>7.6'1>7.5'1>'1>-'ai,~....Voidratioeo0.3290.3260.326~-I.+>'1>'1>'1>'1>....SaturationSo,636262~~",JJ~,aenSl'ty,7d126.3126.5126.6rt-2.lbeliftQ/~WatercontentVa.':7.7'1>7.3'1>7.3'1>'1>EII;)-3.0.c:Voidratioe<r.;0.317.0.312P.309-0Ul>eSaturationSa;;:65,~65i65'1>'1>05101520~nnu~i~pres-IIUoIIIsure.TsoftAxialStrain.'1>'aIWatercontentVf7.5'1>7.3'1>7.3'1>'1>ShearStrengthParameters~Voidratioef0.307 0.2890.274••33.50Minorpri,CiPa1°34.008.0016.00stress,Tsqft0.662Maxdeviator;I( )12.4123.46fl-2.02tan••stress.T/sqt't°r03maxc·0.66T/sqftTimetofailure,mintf263532RateOf/train,0.390.380.39MethodofsaturationpercentminNoneU1tdevi']~~ftl(01-03)Uit12.2923".2541.'77stress.T s0ControlledstressInitialdiameter,in.Do5.875.875.87IiJControlledstrainInitialtleigtlt.in.Ho'12.8112.8112.81TIlleoftestQITIlleofspeciJDenRemq1d,",Cl&asificationGr.Si.SAND(SM)LtrPLPII1Gs2.69BaarkaRemoldedat95%ProjectWATANADAMStandardcompactionD~nsity(126.6P.C.F.)andOptimumArea~ompOSLt:el.'\Io.l...WaterContent(7.5%)BoringNo•SsmpleNo.___....DepttlDate14NUVI~/OVlNPDTlUAXIALCOMPRESSIONTf,STREPORT"-, t:'0'fJ++.4~·ttIt11I-It-r::I':J'~:t.t~t~,t:"'tjlot+-•....J<t_+-t1r::I'f•+-t~~E<+-"t>J/-O'10.III110'I~...."-,..~Lt"it.1Iirot,t>..fiiU·"l•~...-j..•,•l:h;"•2.0"'":tI2.0+>t,tt~H'''l+k.,(/]'~11~it'-1~t+ktI•.+0~tlIt~t'~, t·fi~t·00200~ogo/00NormalStress,0,T/sqft+2.0C)TestNo.1 23~+,.oWatercontentYo3.61>3.51>3.51>1>C'';l~()0....Voidratioeo0.3260.3260.326+>~.....SaturationSo29",1>291>291>1>.-~~-I,oJJryaensl'ty,7ei126.5.lbi'cuft126.6126.5l...3.5.1>-+-tilWatercontentYo;;'3.61>3.5"1>.tI~£-2.0G).s::VoidratioeCT,j0.3120.3180.303~to~G)SaturationSo:::31~301>311>1>k-3.005101520ennlLL~i~kpres-ti'110l:I:lsure.Tsoft.AxialStrain,S'i1WatercontentYf3.41>3.4"3.41>~ShearStrengthPar!!!!!eters;lVoidratio'"'ef0.3120.3070.272••35.50IMinorpri,ci~°34.008.0016.00stress.Tsqft0.712Maxdeviator;I( )16.4928.1049.64tan••stress,T/sqft111-113III&X0.14T/sqftT1metofailure,mintf112130c-RateOf/train,0.430.370.39lpercentminMethodofsaturaticmNonei~l~e~:;i,}~~ftl(l1l-a3)ult14.9526.2548.720ControlledstressInitialdi!!!!!eter,in.Do5.875.875.87illControlledstrain'Initialheight,in.He12.81'·~2.8112.81TypeoftestQITypeofspecimenRemold,C1&ssificationGr.Si.SAND(SM)LtIPLPIIIGs2.69RelIarkaRemoldedat95%~jectWATANADAM.StandardCompactionDensity(126.6P.C.F.)andOptimumAreaWaterContentminus4%(3.5%)-..'v.~BoringNo.SlIIIIPleNo.,,DepthDate14NOVl~fHF.lNPDTRIAXIALCOMPRESSIONTESTREPORTeMGFOIIM,JUN6S2089(EM1110-2-1902)PREVIOUSEDITIONSAREOBSOLET"TRANS,LUCENT639ChartD-12A~,;'.6l~ t::5./1-+;t+lCI'1~t:Eo<-t..t-HtCI't~t"'IIt-;~Eo<8t-D2.1Jit'l.,I...~..,,i1Dr:41:~,.;~.+1-+~t....~1IIt..'+,.+-.IIIf."fI+>tf•-tttm~'1','1~.tt-.:t~....~0l1t1:U:.~00'1g,e."20NormalStress,0,T/sqf'to·~TestNo•1 2 3...£D.OWatercontentWo11.21>11.21>11.21>1>~'ilVoi.dratioeo0.3260.3280.326fji-~,'....+>....SaturationSo921>92.)921>1>\J·rnm~IlrE.-D,ZEJ.I~,aenS1T.y,?'d126.1126.4126.61bcu1'1;d~Watercontentwee:11.21>11.21>11.21>1>€2-0•3I).<:Voidratioeq;;0.3020.304 0.303~mI)Saturation.'S<tj100~99j991>1>k05101520~.mllLL~i~Jtpres-Q)~JlQsure.Tsa1'1;AxialStrain,1>'ilWatercontent.Wf11.21>11.2"11.2"j...s::ShearStreD«tbParameters....Voidratio0.301 0.3020.301lOtef••1.750IMinorpri?Ci~°34.008.0016.00stress"Tsqf't0.0307Maxdeviator;I( )1.151.501.91taD••stress,T/sqtt°1-°3maxC·0.44T/sq1'1;Timetof'ailure,mintf'383838RateOf'/train,:0.390.390.39Methodof'saturaticmIpercentmin.None..~!~e~:;i~'~~tt/(01-03)ult1.15L501.910ControlledstressInitialdiameter,in.Do5.875.875.87.1iJControlled!Itr~Initialheight,ln.Bo12.81 12.8112.81TtPe01'testQIType01'~c1menRemold,".C1&ss1tlcationGr.Si.SAND(SM)LtIPLPIIGs2.69RellarksRemoldedat95%ProjectWATANADAMStandardCompactionDensity(l26.6P.C.F.)andOptimumAreaWaterContentplus4%(11.5%)Borin8Ho.~,om~os~l.el~O•.LS8lllP1eo.LostwaterduringcompactionDepthDate14NUVI~fli~,NPD'1'RIAXIALCOMPRESSION~TREPORT-INGPOIlIll'.IUN6'2089(ElIIll1002-1902)PREVIOUSEDITIONSAREOBSOLETETRANSLUCENT640ChartD-13../ tIZ:604,IIq-~,!-it0'J,~t.+~.....+-.,t,,0't"1II..;tt;""-E:t.'l>320+-,It:tf;'"1"'IT...I.II1...I1......jl>..n,~jIIIj..IIIIII~.-.III..--.~.£#-+'/0CI1tt•.1~Hli'1d::~II+I~l11tHtf,t•()0102.0301./-015NormalStress,.0,T/sqft~{l.OTestNo.123cWatercontent7.51>7.91>7.81>1>IIIYo~aIVoidratioeo0.3260.3310.331....VI-O.t+'....SaturationSo621>641>641>1>"~tD~(l1ennty,Yd126.6;126.1126.2~1beuftE:aWatercontentYc11.21>11.11>10.81>1>-2wtJ,'"II.<:Voidratioec0.3030.3000.291~CI1II~1>1001>1>lotSaturationSc1001000'051015201M1'1naJ.~i~Jr.pres-IIIIIsureTsort1105.047.205.04Axialstrain.1>'ilWatercontent.Yf11.21>11.11>10.81>1>ShearStreplthParwters~Voidratio....ef0.3020.2980.290••12.30Minorpri~C1PBJ.°34.008.0016.00stressTsqft0.218Maxdeviator/( )tan.•stress.T/sqft°1-03'1II&X3.847.5911.28C·1.07T/sqrtTimetofailure.DI1ntf10 1819Rateof/train,0.100.080.08MethodofsaturatiooIpercentDI1nBackPressure~!~e~:;i,}~~tt/(01-03)ult2.134.928.490ControlledstressInitialdiameter,in.Do5.875.?75.87(!JCClI1trolledstrainInitialheight.in.Ho12.~nl2.81)..2.81T,ypeoftestRIT,ypeofspec1JllenRemold.C1UsificationGr.S1.SAND(SM)LtIPL"\~"PII/ Gs2.69RemarksRemoldedat95%Pro.1e.ctWATANADAMStaridardCompactionDensity(126.6P.C~'F:)andOptimumAreaWaterContent(].5%)•BoringNo.S8lllP1e~?mpositeNo.1DepthDate14NOV978'~1'NPDTRIAXIALCOMPRESSIONTESTREFORTING'ORM'JUN.I2089(EM1110.201902)PREVIOUSEDITIONSAAEOBSOLETETRANSLUCENT641ChartD-14A2-~':.6~ l11~qEN~¢S-:r..:I9:-s~4q4')IrW~TANA-DA~'~Ii--;,'-:.'i~;i-'-1i~~"~';\1ilnl"l6'iI' :'.,", , ,.'I'I,:',I.:':I,::,I'iI'IVi1;:IiflO, ;!rj:'II"II,I!I•l:IlII , ' III,:I." 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=12.80~'WatercontentWfr;:VoidratioefMinorpriiCiPal°stress,Tsqft311.7'/,11.0'/,10.5'/,0.3130.2970.2824.008.0016.00tan.=0.228C=0.52T/sqftMaxdeviatorI(.)'stress.T/sqftI°1-°3maxTimetofailure,mint f3.086.2110.451219120.080.08 0.08Rateof/strain,percentminMethodofsaturation_-;-_~:':":====------+------'t----t---+-.---;BackPressureDControlledstress[i]ControlledstrainUltdevi~~~~ftl(01-03)ultstress.T.fs....;1,Initialdiameter,in.DoInitialheight,io.H61.755.8712~814.725.8712.819.665.8712.81TypeoftestRITypeofspec1.ml!nRemoldClassificationGr.Si.SAND(SM)PII·2.69RemarksRemo1dedat95%StandardCompactionProjectWATANADAMDensity(126.6,P.C.F.)and,OptimumWaterContentminus4%(3.5%).Area.BoringNo.DepthElSampleNo.compositeNo.Date80NOVNTHNPDTRIAXIALCOMPRESSIONTESTREPORTENGfORMtJUN652089(EM1110-2-1902)PREVIOUSEDITIONSAREOBSOLETETRANSLUCENTChartD-16643 "ii~1-qS-Lif'i9.-a~.q~)',1---.,-.-l:wATANADAMI ;:ii,'\~ill:!IiI'I'!i!:II'II:ii'I';,''.,"!: ::::,:!I ,' ',,II''i' , ,QIQPpS1teN9fl,,,':' , :I'III!'..'i'II' 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(J1I424PI'EVIOUIEDITIONIAREOSSOLETE.(TRANSLUCENT)CoefficientofPemeaJ>llity,~b'J.o-""em/Mc0.10.20.30.40.512345J.O2025().~gOfoCon~/.--~,3?rr~~~~(,~V~f0-r-(~O..~~r<~0.51---r---r-.0.7"().~5l.i5r---.I'-..GI'<:l),O.3¥/."30"r'--....'til11:0X~'dO.3.a2.'1-"....~!\~0.,37.:1\'n3,1/-S'(~1\(.1.31~'""\.!J-,\0.,30~:;~IIO.J.0.20.30.40.5J.23451020253"-.Pressure,p,T/sq1"tType"ofSpec1lllenRemoldBeforeTest..Af'terTestDiem4.445in.Ht1.005in.WaterContent,Wo9.3'/.wf9.2'/.OverburdenPressure,PoT/sqftVoidRatio,eo0.366et0.313PreconsoJ..Pressure,PcT/sq1"tSaturation,So68'/.Sf.79'/.CompressionIndex,Cc0.06DryDensity,7d122.'5J.b/tt3127.4Plass1t1cationSi.SAND(SM)~Oateo=XJ.O-em/secLLG2.68ProjectWATANADAMs,.PLD10Bemal'ksRemoldedat95%StandardAreaCompactionDensity(122.5lloriDgNo;CompositeNo.1·P.C.FSlImpJ.eNo•andOptimumWaterContentDepth.Date14NOV1978(9.3%EJ.Loadedatplacementwater{"NPDCONSOLIOATION'TESTREPORTcontentwithnosaturation','ChartD-18645 SHEETNO.1TIMEINMINUTES0°·10.20.52510205010020050010002000f---_.-f-----.~-+m-+--l-+++++-I+li+I--I---c+·-·~'-I--l--l--I-I-l--J--l++-l---_.~..--_._-~....--f--~-----~-1-----,f--.---f----l---I--+-I-++l+-_.-----L-I--U..-LI--l-UW-l-W-...,.....I...,.....I-+-J.+l-l++++I-I-+-H++++1H--1-tt-11-----e--_.--I01--+-+--I-W-f-m-+++++tJ~H+t+-'-+-H-H+l-tttttj-HiititHiffi..~~=-2.0l.--~I-W--W..w.J.+-=::::::j::::::::j-+-=ld:++++-I-.J-++++-++++H~f-ttttl'I.,--±)~7+ttttHittl~_._-~--II--!-'-t-+-·H-+ti---·-~J~~k--!-+-l-U++4-++l+-++-+-+-++++-t+t1t-'--l-++t+ttTttit1'2~'/0:COlloatUInsit(122NOTE:NUMBERSBESiDECURVESAREPRESSURESINT/SQFT.I1.111IIII0.10.20.51 2510205010020050010002000TIMEINMINUTES..WATANADAMf-IOIIINGNO.1~:E.osu;el~O.LI~.ID~4NOV197A~Po.M-2Oii--PREVIous-Eo~PDCoNSOLIDATIONTEST-TIMECURVES(TltANSLUCENT)IMAY63M.f.OBSOLEtE.*Gpo.1...4or7111-IIS646ChartD-19 1'-/01--l--'-H~~+--+-f---.,jH-H-++H+f-I+-++-+-t+H+t+t++-++i--tttttTt\tj1NOTE:NUMBERSBESiDECURVESAREPRESSURESINT/SQFT.IIIIIII0.10.20.51 2510205010020050010002000,.!ROJECTWATANADAMTIMEINMINUTESAafA~~~~~~--~1s.J,?em~~siteNo:lI~~PTHID~4NOV1978~r:y':.M2Oa~..~~EVl~:a:~~PDCOtlisOLIDATioNTEST....TIMECURVES(TRANSLUCENT) ..6Coe.fficientotPermea)li1ity,~O,10-.em/sec0.10.20.30.40.512345102025'Yo0.37ConSoI..,:!....-~l~IIE"--o.~~....-.....~IL..i.r-.o.b90.35n1.03"-,.A/.~I""'"i......o.~~!'..~"1'(1}lI.\2..,lj..41/0o.~3""-'"';:I,;i-f'"3.00~0.32~1'\II\..0.3/"4-.0'tf.....~\,-r/0.30\~I...jl'M"!.tlf.0.2.'1...~[.;'Io.z..gI0.10.20.30.40.512345102025?l~Pressure,p,T/sqttTypeorSpeC1lllenRemoldBetoreTestAtterTestD1aIIl4.444in.Ht,1.005in•WaterContent,Yo9.3~Yt11.8~OverburdenPressure,PoT/sqtt.Vo1dRatiO,eo0.365et0.310Preconsol.Pressu.re,PcT/sqttsaturation,So68~.Sf100'1>CCIIlPressionIndex,Cc.0.06DryDensity,7d122.Sb/ft3127.6ClassiticationSLSAND(SM)!teaate.=X10-em/seco .LLGs2.68ProjectWATANADAMPLD10:Remoldedat95%.Be_rltsAreaStandardComD8ctionDensitvBorinsNo.Samp1~OfeP.0siteNo.1(122.5P.C.F.>andOPt:1n1umDepthDate,14NOV1978E1WaterColltent(9.3%)NPDCONSOLIDATIONTESTREPORTPIIEVIOUSE.DITIDNSAilEDBIDLETIE.(TRANSLUCENT')648-(JS4,;,24ChartD":21 SHEETNO.!nMEINMINUTES00.10.20.512~..-r.-----f_.-- -'510205010020050010002000I--~-f---I---1(>~-+-+-+4t-l+~-,+-+-++++I+Hf++It--t-H-tH+ti-+tlrt-T-H-tttttittt1.-..----.::-H-+i--++I+H+~-I--H+I-tt1H-lH+b-T-t-tiittl-tiitir-'----f--,.-+-++++H+H-H+~H+t-ti+t-r-tttt--r-rmitilttt1f---+---+--t·jf-rH-tt---------+--I'-++++++-+++H--l-+-+-l--H++-++H+~-+-+-t-H+t-t+I-H.-.._-'-~II-~,-j-.-.......~"$......~""1""-r-~-~+-+-+-t+Pt-tl-----r---+--1---i-+++I++++I+--+-+++-t-H++t+t+-+-HiTm-tt111'-..---1--1"--~b-+-I-++H-++++-+-+1f-HH+t+t-ttt---'-tI--t"--t-1I-tttt-rt111Bin'rICcnandalr,(2~oNOTE.NUMIERSBESIDECURVESAREPRESSURESINT/SQFT.8°'ReoolejBp%SCoopat~orpsit"'0L_JI~I_L"I1;I.'UIJ.1I41_-:~ILl+J.~;l;;-U.J.l,f..-L---L,;kl.JL.lfAtJ..~,--L-..J.5~00~1il000~~20100.,0.10.20.51 2 5102050100200TIMEINMINUTESWATANADAM..(TRANSLUCENT)•GPO:....0'-711.....,ChartD-22649 SHEETNO.2TIMEINMINUTES000.10.20.51 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(J3424ChartD-24PREVIOUSEDITiONSAREOBSOLETE.(T'RA"SLUCBNT)_6/CoefficientotPemea,pil1ty,~b'10emsec0.10.20.30.40.512345102025100,-3'1QmsoJ.~IIticII'IJ--i¥1VeO.?J,r-....~KP--.......0.50~~r-...lh0.&5D.JS~~1&,/.1..5.r-...i'<tl..~O•.3JI-,/.13'"IQ/,~t\~0o~.~2..3g'•J.J'l"l~.jo>.!,'\.'d0,32.(Dil'l"l~"~~~3.370.3/'I'-~1/\/If.&2-0.30~."Io.z'iIII0.10.20.30.40.512345102025Pressure,P,T/sq:rtTypeatSpec1lllenRemoldBeforeTestArterTestDi_4.445in.it1.006in.WaterContent,W05.3'"wf12.0'"Overburden"Pressure,PoT/sq:rtVoidBatio,eo0.365et0.321PrecCll1so1.Pressure,PcT/sq:rtSaturation,So39'"Sf'100'"CClll;Press1onIndex,Cc0.10DryDensity,7d122.51b/tt3126.6Si,SAND(SM)~ateo=X10-em/secClassiticationLLGs2.68ProjectWATANADAMPLD10~.BeDarks.-Remoldedat95%AreaStandardCompactionDensityBoringNo.~le1Po~positeNo.1(122.5P.C.F.)andOptimumDepthDate14NOV1978E1WaterContentminus4%(5.3%)NP£ONSOLIDATIONTESTREPORT~651 SHEETNO.-1-nMEINMINUTES00•10.20.51 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IIII0.20.512510205010020050010002000nMEINMINUTESI·····WATANADAM..PIOJl!CT~...,,,.1.l;ompOSl.teNO.1DEPrHIDATE.!1J:I~UVI~ItIIORI'lONO.~NO.ELlNOPO..2018....,MAY63~~PDCONSOLIDAnONTEST-TIMECURVES(TRANSLUCENT).- -653ChartD-26 • 1 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SOUTHCENTRAL RAiLBELT AREA.ALASKA SUPPLEMENTAL FEASIBILITY STUDY UPPER SUSITNA RIVER BASIN DEVIL CANYON SITE PLAN a EX~ORATIONS ALASKA DISTRICT,CORPS OF ENGINEERS ANCtIOFlAGE,ALA$Il.A PLATE 0-1 N6~..3§z'"u;!~<l-'::;;IIIzI0-w,.a:'"~~i"'!::i;>enir~i5w..<l0>=i~~~<l..B9~~~~0-,..~~x.~1ja:~'"~S'"~0-0-:>utl..p~:>~658 I,I-:.,.oooa>.l:::~".-~.....:I659 0- 0-o t SOUTHCENTRAL AAILBELT AREA.ALAStl:A SUPPLEMENTAL FEASIBILITY STUDY UPPER SUSITNA RIVER BASIN WATANA DAMSITE SURFICIAL GEOLOGY EAST SHEET ALA5I<A OISTI'UCT,CORPS OF ENOMf"' PLATE 0-4 CORPS OF ENGINEERS u.S.ARMY PLATE 0-5 WO'CON!Olj~INH~VA\.S IN H£T UOV(IIEAN SEA lEV£\'lnu.II ~ CO~TAel SU~rAC£HPnESSION SHEU O~rA%l,VIlH OIP (II;VUHC~,12) .\PPl!OllH.\lE loeUION or fAULT O~SHEAR l.\Nno"00"*OIP or SII(U n~NO UO~•SEOIHENTART o~now STftUCTU~El "IIH OIP (I);VHljC~\.12) eEOS •APPROIIII~H OIP SYNCLINE.SII01I1N(.IllS (.\PfMIIIl.\HlOClTIONI iNTIGtlN£'S'10WINO CUST l'\PPM_mil!lOC~HONI fl()'il!fO!.l.\llllll,$CIUSlOSllY.I ~ClIH(Ill; vENT IC~l (2l JOINTS;IN'''N£O ll);YEHIC~l OIPS 12l TCPCC~APIE Ie S'~iIl\.S w.\lEn·\..\KL STnHr10n Nnu-"~ ~ ~4 -VV~~V ~\~ SOUTHCENTRAL RAIL8ELT AREA,AlASKA SUPPLEMENTAL FEASI8IL1TYS'TUDY UPPER SUSITNA RIVER BASIN WATANA RESERVOIR SURFICIAL GEOLOGY llitnTO~E ANO I'1Ml£ AL4Sl{A l)iSTIlICT,conI'S Of"EOOlUEEns .l«;,~~,...Utl<... =+----:'I~~~'......,,----- til (2l~'~ ~ liS OEOlOGltAl S\lRn,';~WU (IOPO<i~U«ltl,Ul~EONA H1}U~HIH --••n.~~OJ.O~ llTHOtMlcnHOOtS ro;;ol GlACIAl lilt ~2'2.lIT.HA-\.l'~~~'."~2..2 cnHNSCilISTANOCONlACllI\El.\llO~PlIle ro!ll's UNCON.OUOAHOCtHlIC ~11\?alllOL:TE,prIlOIENITE •~LtvVIAl OVO$IH C~IMOS,CNEISS,I~AflC "l1;~~~~~I~~C~NO U1C«G11'\O£ ~ 1.~O ptmv.fnOST O~INHm'",.~,"'H'-~ 0,;~::i'.::i,':.:'::i::'~,,~;,;~:~'i',~·:,::;':~:1;".';'~,:::,:':,:~i:;:~"' "''''''''··.IIIU"r \ o ~~ 0- 0-.... 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IN PIEZOMETER DATA LOCATION:DR-19 W SAI'Ef'iPAYSW PIE'ZOMET'E-il DATA LOCATION:DR-22 SOUTHCENTRAL RAILBELT AREA."ALASKA SUPPLEMENTAL FEAS18ILITY STUDY UPPER SUSITNA RIVER BASIN WATANA DAM SITE PIEZOMETER DATA II ALASJ(A OISTRICT.COOPS OF ENGINEEI'lS ANCl'O'lA~E,AlA'l'(A PLATE 0-17 CORPS Of ENGINEERS VALUE EN(;INEERING PAYS U.S.ARMY 0- "l .j:a, Ll5l.kW6J:n~·2~ATA PIEZOMETER DATA LOCATION:AP-I PIEZOMETER DATA LOCATION:AP·2 SOUTHCENTRAL RAilBELT AREA,ALASKA SUPPLEMENTAL FEAStBILrry STUDY UPPER SUSITNA RIVER BASIN WATANA DAM SITE PIEZOMETER DATA m ALASKA OtSTAICT,CORPS Of"[NOINEEFIS .I.1IC_m •.I.l.I.$K.I. iii SAFETY PAYS iii PLATE 0-18 ~~'"'"".~,\!l.r_lW!y",T1<M1WI ~"t::~II.Ir/o'lllD.¥<~~ 0- "I VI :::t:::..,,,,,,, fJ'\Snm GMY'l:!. 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ALASKA OISn\l<:T,CORP'Of ENGfN£EII:S PLATE 0·23 ~ISILlYSrw 11= HIT lIIUOl A!7,0' -~"" --~(.~~'....!f:7_ 10 GHY WITH eRAnl,~RH ..eUl~ ShMruN2M7' I SAA~U #~AT <)' ~"7.:~_ IW~5.lY$frow< !X jSILlYfAwtU.VS!w \4I11#ID.v1 :""'i!:"~ ~ 10 " :::~::;..,.... ,,"!NIl.{W;~"'t'::'_'__ so = FROlEN.h\lEGtU, $ATunATtO WH[N TH~~tll ~~ f~OZtH,SATijMTtn """"f<1~ CL·lslLlVCUY Me t\I..·ISlLlVCUY ct so " '52 'S_ :::;r.j'"'""~~"""(C'\I~T~NA ~M1 0- 00o SOUTHCENTRAL RAILBELT AREA.ALASKA &JPPLEMENTAL FEASIBILITY STUDY UPPER SUSITNA RIVER BASIN WATANA DAMSITE BORROW ARE A 0 LOGS'AUGER HOLES 6 (CaNT.)THRU 9 ALASKA OISTRlCT,~"$Of"EWGIHEEIlS AHCIlOIIWE, .PLATE 0-24 •...,«T~ s.wuiJAf 17' ~~~~l_twl ~~ u-l=W=*=~~~ =~ U£W',lWlIDfUi'ill 9WIIN3ATlS.2-13' 1llllls~IIlU~lrn _,...IllIWl!l1 I'" 9'iSIW 'J ;1 1! -1' m " 10 :f::::~,,,~ 6~~'~!SlL1YSitl IllJllll1tllllji·m ,,1 I I~ tl ......«lilLWl!W!~'7:'~ 0- 00.... SOUTHCENTRAL RAIL BELT AREA.ALASKA SUPPLEMENTAL FEASIBILITY STUDY UPPER SUSITNA RIVER BASIN WATANA OAMSITE BORROW AREA 0 LOGS AUGER HOLES 9 (CONT.)THRU 14 ALASKA OlSTRICT,conI'S Of'EtKlIIl(£RS E.~E 0-25 ~~~""",«.~fI?-17"""4~'liA..HA PAM::,,"'t:'~ OHOO Of Ho~< (lilT ~OUUl[RS) '.OJv:,~ S/ff\£U!ATJ·ll' OOTTmCf """""•..ii\JfM!W1 ~~ , W,uw,D",:':..'7'r:'~~~-"""',u IIAT~"A PAil~~~"""'~,~.~'---!!w.~~~~~,"_ 0- c:l !'oJ SOUTHCENTAAL RAILeELT AREA I ALASKA SJPI'LEMEN'rnL FEASIBILITY·STUDY UPPER SUSITNA RIVER BASIN WATANA OAMSITE BORROW AREA 0 LOGS:AUGER HOLES 15 THRU 22 ALA5l<A IllSTl'IICT,COlt!'!OF E'HOMPtS AIoICHC!I'U,IK,..t.l..*A -PLATE O~26 0- CXl W -.~"---lOo.~:'.,!,,"i.:'-.!f:ZL___<.....2iw1}\®~'i".:'~ SQUTHCENTRAl RAILBELT AREA.ALASKA SUPPLEMENTAL FEASIBILITY STUDY UPPER SUSITNA RIVER BASIN WATANA OAMSITE BORROW AREA 0 LOGS'AUGER HOLES 23 THRU 24 ALASKA OlS'fRICT,COOPS 01"Et-KiIN[[RS ~ATE,~D~~L ~~~t1i~..r:~zin-"lD0,a:z...~W<Jl,;,~'"toCla:0:::>..J"Wa:Z:I:i..J........0I.in:I:..~!~iil..J:I:~..JCl"ia:ii:wCl"-"-:::>,t"iJ~;;,~d..-~~•5.Ii~•Hi~"q'"12J~684 DH-5 B.A.t.E_P·29 AUll<A OIIfftlC1'."COR'"-0'e:.....UM 1t/IIOIOII,IoI(......AOIlIl SOUTHCEHTRAL RAUlELf ARIA.ALAIKA SUflflLe_NTAL FEA....ITy SWD'i UPPER SUSITNA RIVER BASlI4 DRILL HOLE LOGS NO.2 DH-4 (CONT.)THRU DH-7 :~'""Tl""'l DH-7~~';,"l(\,"'l I l"IIMt<T \lUANA OMI"Tlj FRACru~t SPACINS 70'M W'<'J,1'TQO.6' fftAcrVRE $PAC1~$lj{)' To70'(O.1'T"1.6 FlU,ru~t SPACING 90' 101OO'(0.1'To1-7' T IIATMlADh'l SHfU lQ~t jl~.O'To 47,1)' "., 1t«ll(I«l.DH'~ R 13 cowI';21'",' ~O 1 HOLt Nor PR($$VRtTnncDvtTOCAVmll- 122.9' 1}j:T- ~5.2'"'.rro.S H,law HlnHLvfRJ.tTlJREo1l2.1'TolZM' ....Ml't $I "p(d14 otXll"""",li,l,lUI"'~',~lIIl....."~l CtJuuDJO'lIT£'JS10 hA~ruR£ShCING 100'6?lF~~\3' CORE lets Out T(I_ M!CHANIUlPROBLEIlS 1 ]O-J -J 1 ] j 1 m··· I Iuw I;mr ::;iO;:'[~[~;.§~:I:;:=~141.9 Ml.uoet!l'Y~.IJ,..1~9.5';MQltllONT"'1 :~'"fI'!","I I"MI.KCT \/ATMlADAII 1l~~.1 I'llOJECT IIAfAN~OM OlllU.QATl"SmT17 MA 18-~'R ~:=ij;:,:=:e'::~:~:~::~~~~[;~s Innt20 "';;:;;: 0- CIO VI SOUTHC[NTRAL R.ILBELT AREA.ALASKA SUPPLEMENTAL:"rUStOlUTY STUDY UPPER SUSITNARIVER BASIN DRILL HOLE LOGS NO.3 DH-BTHRU DH-IO -"""-, O~">10~~~~~ K,l),l No.(lI·lllTThW,,[\l,M C(lR£lltCOV[Il£DJU$'~.!...JQ2. AZlWTM=T~'.'.'"~IY~;~ NH [" OIlIl"LOATlI'1ITAI'lT tty]COIiII', 0(l'THOf'(lY[A11JII0l1'l16.2'Ol41Ulflt(lt.t il illl NI-S K·17 a.O'-H.2' ~S.3'·9SX 40% 1:.'5.5 ~o 1-, ~o~:~\!d,i~~f~Nt {I' m,S'!'Xol'ltCOVEllyl00 Wty;#;~ D(~nI CFCNVtIVllOOf 5.6'O!AlltOF KOLf NCO tOftE IU:C:OV(AfD 276.7''x.lltCOV!IlY 99,5 UUNTtll'JIOMHOIn'1l043'Oil,Nlll ~100.r,'v',:"/4Cv"ll1 It:U CHlC-IllTlZATlON 65.0' 0- <Xl 0- PLA'T:~..r;>_w~¥? ;·i~~~~,,~~e~~•rJ:!l~687 Svftu2,B'-zr, .i"l'~ AIR,O'lOl!l'. l.'R-lSli S!fflJ:1,~'·15' =,~ Stwu},2S,l)'·a;.3' tRl'<t1J>Wl..t "I ~0lt'nICT,ClOm't fW hIMItflI ",.......... SIOO<Wl1O'IBlT~ SOUTHC£HTftAL,hALHLT MIA.ALASKA SUfIPl.£tIOfTAL 'U....lTy 1'ND'f UPPER SUSITHA RIVER IlASlH DRILL HOLE LOGS NO.5 DH-12 (CONT.)THRU DR-15 --'--O~lU,.DATU,n"'lIlT OI"nI<#OoT.lm.IIlDVl?;l¥i' CMElltCOV(IlEO 21.3' "!,ulll/UTltl'llOMlIORTH ~ (TILL) "'-, \It$;ll,n'CNO'.....lpU.U !~ :~ w :~_':'·'l'f>otlItiOUH(l.ffi..14 tu.sm'US rncnOJTl'lteS. 'll.1If;COVElty WA :Zfl~";;tl f'uto(lj>JAlVITAm.l:AT2fJ' I XI'61"'ICMm~' l.'~&1'.]5' I ~l~.?'l'oM' 4 1 SNro 4,111'-S!' 3"(26/1ffl711) 2 o.tlRxi711l (Z3J\fi71ll ~!.¥fur',61'.s3' ~. O')AZItilV114Pf1OlrlHORTH 75'11:T~ eU';1l,n'QN 0'.....lt~I.L.. (GI.J;:lI...TI~) -so;;~\Ui:Y:-sll,yw:ii,-w.y,Fr;NOI {§Ttl tJ·1 100 r'Illm~~""~~"",~~ ::":tm...l l-no.itcT lY.l,w1,1:W< 11l2°I3l-jF'1 "''"'='''''~_.-,.}l.~..- .JjJl I hIr~\'1+ "l--------III ...'".,,~.-=-t.'1~_·W<Y.I1i1',~.,- ~&6S'·75'omu; 51rolcm wlU' l«Cm!:lU'..Jl'j' .fu~ 5-Sffl 11QJ TlII<Xm:BlT #01'Ul,51'·m.2' 11~~JO"lJ' (fUll 0116'-(5' (lm:l):rom) ~lm~~~~~l SW-l5.6'(Jlfn'71l1j~2 ~l'lJ"<f>' 61~l«lU.!JlBlTJJ!f> .,Rl9'·fl)' It~iio;f(CT ,""" 1HZ-IiloIuANAIlM ~i :~.':i"maot'l ...,..~~tl'fMII0-coco PL~ 689 IIO\,.EH1'lOH-21 t.1.._, ""'--'... PLArE D....:..M-_ Al..ASKA OIITIfCT,(Oft,..Of'1/IMlIfft,. .wc-_,1iL.tIIU SQUTHC[HTRAL.MJLHLT •••ALASkA !UPfI'L£fl$(NTAL "U....ITY STUO't UPPER SUSITNA RrvER BASIN DRILL HOLE LOGS NO.7 DR -20 (CONT.)AND :DH-21 ""'oneT WATA"AVM 0- -0o :~'::'fIoo'l AtASKA Ol,TmCT ..COil'''''0'(..CJN([ItS AOOCoO'l"'f·........ '" UPPER SUSITNA RIVER BASIN DRILL HOLE LOGS NO.8 DH·21 (CONT.)AND DR.22 SOUTHCENTRAL RAILDELT AREA.ALASKA SUPPlEMENTAL FEASIBILITY STUDY :~r:'''t(l'''f I PAMer •!!£,mCWOVUlIUll.lXH 4S4' ~".~~:'~.,:?,"H 'Y 1,001l 0- -0 PLATE O~35 Ho.lll-lil fI'mTAT'.I, .!lA.l978l K(12.8'-lY.i.'l')(),1J T<1'&~Jl~~ns' ~ltffl'll'AW<lll)'-2'Y {I),l'm2.?' SOUTHCENTRAL RAlLDELT ARU,ALASKA SUPflLEMEHTAL FEAsetLlTY STUDY UPPER SUSITNA RIVER BASIN DRILL HOLE LOGS NO.9 DR-22 (CONT.)THRU DR-26 AL~'"OlSTflllCt,<:o*l"S,0'£,.0-.[['".lC_...,U....... 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Hou INP[RAAFROH< l.~·rnl'" f'AO.I(CT IIUAsAtlA" flOCK OllIU.£O 'tOM l'IICOV!JI[O 'lltlltCOYEIlV AH4II..[f'I'IOWVlfn••AZlIIIlTMrROMltOIm4 ••••••In',Oll't 0tS~er=1?5,?'jltQfIll(lMToU.~.....41-""MI~ (UV,~o.K_"'I011 0'"U.flIM.~Icow: 197110 ~I (N£~»UlOtN 0- -0 W :~-':."nr.>I T l!I'AAllWI m·.:~.':."lfTooIl I l'flOJ(CT ,IIATAIlA OM I~OUI«\Di!·1 :~.':.'"n-t I I"II04CTIIATwDM OH·28 SOUTHC£NTRAL RA1LBf:LT AREA.ALASKA SUPPLEMENTAL FEASIQILITY STUDY UPPER SUSITNA RIVER BASIN DRILL HOLE LOGS NO.10 DR-27 AND DH-28 4l,l,$lIlA OISTIliCT.COllI'"Of [JrtGINUM PLATE 0-3T 694,•.!L: ..6z'"~iiiI-"«"'N",It~~~~~;;>'"0~i~~ii:~~:J.w«cw~~~~~.:~!::za..I~~~~~o::~8°~'"Q.Q.~::>695 696 Ii;.-fo,.,.'-.,......~~~I..IfjAilM~~tj."~I).t-1·\~1\1,•~~"'"~.~,~L-J;fiI'lli.pot:;,,~,lr-,~,:i;....I:-'I.;l1.,.,j,fo,Jb"tl("~1dNI[,,~_-~~~t~U~I,J'I!7\-<''4~~11jI.ilill~i~j~~l'iLio.It;;It-J'l~III~;}f:iIiI""~'"'~~p.~iQ1"';-.II),fl~f'":j~~11..."i'~I...11'1tloti'I,-'~l.:1"I.;~I•.•1I697 698 ". -... ......,!'.'.~. , t-".'·:..r,·' ,~:'.::...-~.~._~= ",,·J.Allt7J limit II.)' 1111 - 0- -0 -0 t.f.t .U¥Mut n .....y.}',.tll1) IOUTHClJfT"1lL MLIIU'MIlA,....... -....u......Al 'U-'ITY I'NOW' UPPt:II IlUSfTNA l1l\I£11 lA_ WATANA OAMSITE CORE PHOTOS NO.6 OR-15 THRU OR-20 ..............,..,.,CICl'l"Ofr_--.-'- PLATE O'~!1 z~iii:<li<D...>f5~g~~>lJ)•.~a:~~Nri~~~x§I~t:za..°~.,~~S~~~~"jcr:~8~OJ0-0-J700 "o CII-tt )ll.'-'l:;~l. l"(f":.-.W,\loI.:lSlt!ifttll,t':1 6' ¥n'IIiIifiJ,.-'1 ..,~...;',•." .•',1,.'I...'. _ '1':.:! .,_. fr.~~;.~~~,~~,~.~':II ~-'...'-..~..:.-~~~.~'-."...., .' ,'.,;,.:':11 .,1~'1 '...,.... ~.:..U'~_,-.:"Y lL',-..Tll I.~'"f'h,,"-~-ii''1~·_~s~--'}'~~~~-:"~'-;;' --~- ..,..,..............--,,..~I-, '-' -1""[""'-,<._--,.,... 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PLATE 0-4" EXHIBIT0-1LocationMapsandSeismicRefractionVelocityProfiles,WatanaandDevilCanyonOamsites.703 CORPS OF ENGINEERS -VALUE ENGINEERING PAYS U,S.ARMY ,0J,lll,ln 1011l,UI 34 +50 RELICT CHANNEL AREA SW·6 ,·t,ll',m '011(,111 34 +50 148 +91 '<t,U$,1lI 10lH,UI 23+00 ::~j~~~l~'· 0+00 SW-5 s'll:?> '-DR·14 SW·6.5 +23 SW·3.138 +32 ,·t,ln,1Il 'o"I,llI SW·4 ::l;;~:j;n ......o ...- U1 s'!l'?> o+~oo '01-\"oUll,Ul 'Olll.';' DRC1/ $W·5.11 +50 $W·3.109 +97 fol,m,m IoIU,III 0+00 115 +00 i:~;~~:i:1I ... ,01.ln,ltl lol~.,lll ABUTMENT AREA ::lli~lltn 34 +50 .;, ,.1;:, '"f,:':~~-i'---",'.'n,---;7~16+12~-n'lirH'"""'01 III III '0'lt3l1 11 +50 DR·19 .i:Mll;i" ~'.,'7 }'0 400 800 1200 !!t t ALASKA DISTRICT conI'S O".I1IfOIHItt:Rll AHCHOItAQL ALASKA tum 1 Of 21 INV.NO.DACW85·7$·C·0027 CON'mACT NO,_ ~=._--_.~-~----ClIT __.,_._._"_,_,,_".__,,_,,,IT"'II ..."_"",_.""_,_",._,,,,,,_ DH-12 ,01,III,lll '<m,1l1 'o',lll,nl 10JH,I1I 0+00 (l 0 R I V ER w SW·' _.'=0 DH.28 '01,IU,111 "m,lll '<J,m,m1<lll,lll 23 +00 q 400 800 1210 SCALE IN FEET ~:l;;:~jr':::;;;ii:n rolNl"$~o +00 SW·2 23 +00 3~5~_~:~~ls~i~'1'w,,~o &.,,",,W'O ~ l"l.flUlI10,n,1l1 NMI',7<'T..o.t'[ o 11,11' DH-10 1....'M}X,tOC...ltOm SAFETY PAYS ------. -su ~ ----..Sir ".NA w 1 ::;CALt:IN FEET0+00'<1,111,111 ,01l$,ln CORPS OF ENGINEERS VALUE ENGINEERING PAYS .U,S.ARMY UPPER TSUSENA BORROW SITE 1'.1 __ .-1 \l :;CALI:IN FEET o 500 1000 !I t 22 +88 '\ -----!!...!=m'~I.:!-_ s.·s 0+aD ~NO lOCJL camo.COCfllllllUE I'(It1l1$AYAIUaE _Jv--'~:;;;--,:u:,WO;!p-_ _Jv--'.~~1Ji.------"~'~-- ~~~- 28 +75 ...... ~~ LOWER TSUSENA BORROW SITE 23 +00 1ol.lll,m "111,111 • 0.21 INV.NO.DACW85-78-C'0027 t~ SW·10 /~'- ~0 500 lOpOII SClJ...LE1N FEET lsi SAFETY PAYS Jill :-.. \\\. SW-12 23,+00 N.llI,111 Iolfl,HI 1\ "\ SW·13 23 +00 "l,lll,1Il '-llS,Ul " +50 \::i,\':,~, $W 11 1-~1 ::~j;l:j:ll 1 a ~000+00 .I .,-.~,,,.",- ,.,on ,::-----~-·"·n·''r """",.,,----0 •.,,~~ /1'111 HI __""l----~~~;.---"'.,.m...,,;:' / 0+00 RIVER .-----1 :::l;l:~ll ----- /?-- ,.,.m.",\.../hill.II.. / 0+00 ~ ,-"''''/.-:>0/_O:::~/) .'"Y...~. SW·14 oj. 23 +00 "1.111,111 l'm,1I1 CORPS Of ENGINEERS VALUE ENGINEERING P·AYS U.S.ARMY 20 +00 2000 ---I ~1950 ~ "1900 z 0;:: <{ 1800 ~ 1800 1750 DOWNSTREAM 15 +00 SW-1 1,..:.U:__ DH-28 ,.,,".-...~ 10 +005+00 n,sOD '-f ""."~I1950 __~rOOO!~"z 19000;:: <{ 1850~ 1800 175 0 __ ~~S*EAM ........."........ -.,-... A 1),020 ir 50 2000 ~1950"~1:::-z 0;:: <{ ~I.- 'A 1800 25+00 1750 18,000 1,250 13,000 6,020 20 +00 12,500 1,250 6,020 13,000 15 +00 SW-2 10 +00 .....16.200 / ,/ I /16,200 ;' 1.250 \(/ ~/ \... '-- 16,:?QO \ \ 5 +00 ..........".........---13,000 1750 0 +00 DOWNSTREAM 1800 ~ "zo 1900;:: <{ >~1850~...., 2050 2000 ~1950 " '"oor ~z 0;:: <{ ~1850 - A 1800 1750 25+00 6,020 16,500 i 13500 30+00 SW-2 2050 2000 13,500 I ~1950 "1900 z 0;:: <{ 1850 ~ 1800 1750 35 +00 UPSTREAM LEGEND ~POSITION OF LATERAL VELOCITY CHANGE NUMBERS IN PROFILES ARE VELOCITIES,IN FEET PER SECOND DH-12 BORING DESIGNATION t....----APPROXIMATE LOCATION OF CHANGE IN MATERIAL o 50 100 150h-==!!I VERTICAL SCALE IN FEET o 100 200 3001.....' , HORIZONTAL SCALE IN FEET SUSITNA HYOROELECTRIC PROJECT WATANA OAMSITE 1978 SEISMIC REFRACTION SURVEY SEISMIC VELOCITY PROFILES SW·1 SW·2 iii SAFETY,PAYS iii IlIUf 3 01'21 INV.NO.DACW85-78-C-0027 CORPS Of ENGINEERS VALUE ENGINEERING PAYS U,S.ARMY A lf 300 2200 2100 ~ ~ '~2000i". A 1900 1800 60i 00 5.500 50 +00 7,800 1 7,000 13,000 40+00 17.000 /- ....-:::1/,000 l6.000 7.000 4,500 6,~OO SW-3 nooo W,OOO 20 +0010+00 10,500 2300 2200 ~2100~ z 0 2000>=«~1900 1800 0+00 DOWNSTREAM 12,500 \3,300 INTERSECTIon SW·4 1,250 6,500 18.000 ~"\1,500 7,500 1'1)00 INlERSECTlCtl SW·5 -,2400 DR-15 4,500 '5~8 2300 '.soo 6.560 I", 2200 0 100 200 300 7000 'I~m ...,,I VERTICAL SCALE IN FEET 2100 ~0 200 490 69 0"z I """"0 HORIZONTAL SCALE IN FEET 'I 2000 >=17,000 «~8 1900 SW-3 J"UD':-::-'-::::-~__-----=-'-;,:;;---------;-;:;;-'-=--------=;-L::-----------;=-7-;;;!1800 SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT 'NATA:~A DAMS1TE 1978 SEISMIC REFRACTION SURVEY SEISMIC VELOCITY PROFILES SW-3 BORING DESIGNATION -APPROXIMATE LOCATION OF CHANGE IN MATERIAL DR-15 j- LEGEND POSITION OF LATERAL VELOCITY CHANGE NUMBERS IN PROFILES ARE VELOCITIES,IN FEET PER SECOND ~~~ ~ zo ~ G;u: 2100 2400 2000 2300 2200 1900 7,000 13,000 22,000 14,000 SW-3 13.000 7,000 IIflERSECTIOO SW·6 4,500 4,500 i 9000 '"4,500~~I'~'"~ "~-;;,;--'-,. 117,000 I 13,000 8 2400 2300 ~•2200 ~2100 zo ~2000 G; ~1900 WI SAFETY PAYS WI _4 INV.NO.DACWSS-78 -C -0027 CORPS OF ENGINEERS VALUE ENGINEERING PAYS U,S.ARMY Illl'mstCTlOO 1300 SW.3 1300 /:::::><:::::Ji.0623001-8~7000 -12300 7000 2200 7000 2200 f-f-17;100 '"'"14,000 ~'"u.""2100 17,000 2100 zz00;::;::2000 2000 '"'"> ffi '"-' 1900 1900 '" 1800 1800 0+00 10+00 20 +00 SOUTH SW-4 NORTH 2400r DR·15 1450 ]2400INTEllS£CTICH 1450 23001- SW·3 1109 +91 2300 1450---5200 7000 2200 2200 ~2100 2100 m7000 Z 15,400 11,000 Z '"~I -2000 2000 -z z000 -0 ;::;:: '"1900 1900 '"~~ u!u! 1800 1800 21,000 1700 1700 0+00 10 +00 20 +00 30 +00 SOUTH SW-5 NORTH DR·14 24001-ttmRSECTlOO 17~-i 2400SW·3 138 +35 1150 --::::::=:====~~2300r~4100 -i 2300 7000 ~2200 7000 2200 ~ "2100 15,000 2100 "z z 0 13,000 13,500 0;::2200 2200 ;:: '"10,000 '">22,000 ~~1900 1900 u! 1800 1800 0+00 10 +00 20 +00 30+00 SOUTH NORTH SW-6 LEGENO !POSITION OF LATERAL VELOCITY CHANGE NUM8ERS IN PROFILES ARE VELOCITIES,IN FEET PER SECONO DR·15 BORING DESIGNATION t_.~"'-APPROXIMATE LOCATION Of CHANGE IN MATERIAL VERTICAL SCALE IN FEET o 200 400 6001.....J !! HORIZONTAL SCALE IN FEET CONT'I\AeTNO,_ SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT WATANA DAMSITE 1978 SEISMIC REFRACTION SUAVEY SEISMIC VELOCITY PROFILES SW·4 SW·5 SW·6 U<m 5 Of 21 INV.NO.DACWBS-78-C'0027 <4- UPPERTSUSENA BORROW SITE U.S.ARMY 2450 2400 10-000 ,2350 >-- 2300 ~ ;: 2250 z 0 \1 2200 ~ 2150 20 +00 2100 EAST 15.000 VALUE ENGINEERINO--PAYS 15 +00 58SO '10+00 SW·g 15,500 10,300 lnooo 58SO 5 +00 CORPS Of ENGINEERS I 2450 2400 2350 m 2300 ;: z 22500;:: "~2200 I 14,000 2150 2100 0+00 WEST 2400 ......1,250 ===~24005,750 ~ I'-5.150 >--~2350 2350 ~14,800 ;:10,000 5,750 ;: Z 2300 13,100 2300 Z ~ ·1 0 0;::;::..."15,300 "1+0 ~2250 2250 ~ uj uj 2200 2200 14,500 2150 2150 0+00 5 +00 10 +00 15 +00 20·100 25 +00 WEST EAST SW·8 25001 l2500 2450 LEGEND 2400 !POSITION OF LATERAL VELOCITY CHANGE >--~""~ffi NUMBERS IN PROFILES ARE'"".[2350 VELOCITIES,IN FEET PER SECONDif ;:;:DR·15 BORING DESIGNATION Z 2300 2300 z 0 .-~/0 ;::;::\_m ..,~"I~«'"LOCATION OF>2250 2250 ~CHANGE~IWMATERIAL'"uj 13,970 13,970 22002200 0 50 100 150 ~SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT l-I I I \!\1ATANA DAM SITE 2150[J2150 VERTICAL SCALE IN FEET 197BSEISMIC REFRACTION SURVEY SEISMIC VELOCITY PROFILES 0 100 200 300 SW·7 SW·B SW·g 2100 I I I 2100 I """'"'I0+00 5+OQ 10+00 15+00 HORIZONTAL SCALE IN FEETWESTSW·7 EAST I 1_6 ~21 Iii SAI'EU PAYS Iii INV.NO,DACW85·78·C·DD27 CORPS OF ENGINEERS VALUE·ENGINEERING PAYS LOWER TSUSENA BORROW SITE 1500 _--------1 4 50 ________ 11,750 1450 16,100 1450 13,300 8080 8080 12,300 1450 1400 1350 1300 1250 ffi '"Zo i= <! ~ LEGEND I POSITION OF LATERAL VELOCITY CHANGE NUMBERS IN PROFILES ARE VELOCITIES,IN FEET PER SECOND BORING DESIGNATION SW·12 1200 DR-IS t-"-~APPROXIMATE LOCATlON'OF CHANGE IN MATERIAL SUSITNA RIVER ~---~1250 ____ 1500 1500 7500 .. SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT WATANA oAMSITE 1978 SEISMIC REFRACTION SURVEY SEISMIC VELOCITY PROFILES SW·10 SW·11 SW·12 ~5.0 190 1)0 VERTICAL SCALE IN FEET 9 ~o 290 390 HORIZONTAL SCALE IN FEET 1650 1600 1550 ~ 1500 '"z 1 1450 07400/,4,370 ~ i;; 1400 ~ 1350 1300 20+0015+00 2760 1500 1450 1400 ~ '"1350 z 0 i= <! 1300 ~ 1250 1200 14,370 SW·10 10+00 10+00 13,970 7400 ooo~'f!!'/ 5+00 SW·11 5+00 13,970 1250 1200 0+00 1650 1600 ....1550 ~ '"'~r SUSITNA z RIVER 0 d 2200 { ,1000i=1450<! ~----2760~ 1400 ~70 ;350 1300 0+00 1500 1450 .... ~1400 ......+1 '"...z 1350...0 i=<!>1300w ~ .311 SAFETY PAYS .. 7 01'21 INV.NO.DACW85·78·C ·0027 CORPS OF ENGINEERS VALUE ENGINEERING PAYS U.$.AIIMY LOWER TSUSENA BORROW SITE SUSITNA ~ RIVER--~~ SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT LOWER TSUSENA BORROW·SITE 197B SEISMIC REFRACTION SURVEY SEISMIC VELOCITY PROF I LES SW·13 SW-14 1550 1500 1450 1;;LEGEND ~I POSITION OF LATERAL ~VELOCITY CHANGE 1400 z NUMBERS IN PROFI LES ARE0;::VELOCITIES,IN FEET PER SECOND 1350 '"~ 1300 1250 1200 0 50 100 150 \I ,I VERTICAL SCALE IN FEET 0 100 290 390I I...HORIZONTAL SCALE IN FEET 1550 1500 1450 >- 1400 ~ ~ 1350 B ;:: '"1300 ~ ~ 1250 1206 1150 I~ 20 +00 14,900 15 +00 SW-14 SW-13 15,400 7300 15,400 10 +00 12,900 6835 11.9()O 1550 1500 ~SUSITNAlli1450~R ~---"00z__ Z 1400 0;:: 7300 -<1350 f-~ ~ 1300 I ~14,250 1250 1200 0 + 00 5 +00 ....... e.:l 1550 150C 1450 1;; ~1400 ~a 1350;:: '"ilj 1300 ~ 1250 1200 ~SAFnY PAYS w ~21 INY.NO.DACW85-78-C-0027 CORPS OF ENGINEERS VALUE ?ENGINURING PAWS U.S.ARMY ~ 'O'<-~ SW.17 \'O'<-'~ '0'<-' <)q/J <)'<-''0 _._----'-~~t( ---J i '"_~SW~.15 __0100Ao+~-.--------...)I--~.r-·~;;;:;."NA·RIVER-----------. """~ II 1> 'l... Co) 0+00 """'"""'"~ 9 290 490·690 SCALE IN FEET ~SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT DEVIL'S CANYON DAM SITE 1978 SEISMIC REFRACTION SURVEY LOCATION MAP SW·15 SW·16 SW·17,- rieioUo ---.Jill SAFETY PAYS w L..9 teA:-;- tNV,NO,DACW85·78 -C·0027 CORPS OF ENGINEERS VALUE ENGINEERING PAYS U.S.ARMY 55055(.L+:;;;---------55-;+Oioo)-------~~~:;: UPSTREAM SW.15 750 850 800 ffi 1500r ..,1500 ;; z 0 1450i= "@ ffi ~1400 ;; :iJ ;;z ::;z 1350 0 ::>0 i= V>i=":Q "~1;;1300 ..J "'w Ii::iJ 1250 1250 ::; ::;10.100 ~~1200 1200 ""0+00 5+00 10+00 SOUTH NORTH SW-17 950 700 650 600 900 800 750 850 1000 11)50 ;':::===~==:::::::::::~:::======-----~, 3185 ------'____-.w 3165 1200 1000 600 950 900 i;;:;: ;; Zo ~ ~ £700 ::; Vl ~650 '4.... ~ 550 I I !!I 550 0+00 5+00 10+00 UPSTREAM DOWNSTREAM SW-16 SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT DEVIL'S CANYON DAMSITE 1978 SEISMIC REFRACTION SURVEY SEISMIC VELOCITY PROFI LES SW·15 SW·16 SW·17 ~~--~5p 190 110 VERTICAL SCALE IN FEET 9 ,.230 290 39 0 HORIZONTAL SCALE IN FEET DR~15 BORING DESIGNATION t..'-~APPROXIMATE LOCATION OF CHANGE IN MATERIAL LEGEND I POSITION OF LATERAL VELOCITY CHANGE NUMBERS IN PROFILES ARE VELOCITIES,IN FEET PER SECOND 600 1050 1000 950 900 850 i;;:;: ;; 800 z 0 i= 750 "1;; uj 700 0,. ::l 650 i2"11.150 7150 600 750 700 900 850 650 800 950 r---"1250------- 3165 ---- 1000 1050 ~ ;; Zo ~ ffi :iJ::; ::> i2 " w SAFETY :PAYS iii IHm 10 01'21 INY.NO.DACW85.78·C·0027 EXHIBITD-2ReconnaissanceoftheRecentGeologyoftheProposedDevil'sCanyonandWatanaDamsites,SusitnaRiver,Alaska.715 CONTENTSABSRACT-----------------------------------------------~-------INTRODUCTION---------------------------------------------------GEOLOGICBACKGROUND--------------------------------------------PROCEDURES-----------------------------------------------------Groundandaerialobservations------------------------~---Visualobservationsduringhelicopteroverflights----------Fi~storderlevelingobservations--------------------~----Additionalobservations------------------------------------Seismicactivity-------------------------------------------SUMMARY--------------------------------------------------------RECOMMENDATIONS----------------------~--~---------------------REFERENCESCITED-~---------------------------------------------716719721724727730738749751753756757758 IllustrationsFi8U~1.Overlayshowingactualandinferredfaults------~~-~-------761Tables1.Inferredfaults----~-------------------~-------------~-----7262.Partiallistofscarpsandlandforms---------~------------~7293.Locationofselectedexamplesofscarps--------------------7404.Selectedexamplesoflandforms-----------------------------7415.Locationofoldandpotentiallandslides-------------------7456.Locationofpatternedground-------------------------------7467.Firstorderlevelingresults-------------------------------750717 AppendicesA.LetterfromF.R.BrowntoDr.DallasPeck,31March1978--B.LetterfromReubenKachadoorian·toDr.ElllsKrinitzsky,March28,1978---------------------------------------~-----C.U.S.GeologicalSurveyOpen-fileReport78-558-A,byCsejteyandothers,.•.1978------------------~':"'~------------.~-718 PRELIMINARYREPORTOFTHERECENTGEOLOGYOFTHEPROPOSEDDEVILSCANYONAND.WATANADAMSI'l'ES.,SUSITNARIVER,ALASKAbyReubenKachadoo.rianandHenryJ.MooreABSTRACTAttherequestoftheCorpsofEngineers,theU.S.GeologicalSurveyconductedareconnaissanceoftherecentgeologyoftheproposedDevilsCanyonandWatanadamsiteareas,SusitnaRiver,Alaska..Thepurposesofthereconnaissanceweretolookforactivefaultsandother'geologichazards.FieldworkbytheGeologicalSurveywasconductedbetweenJuly25,1978andAugust7,1978usingahelicopterwhichwassharedjointlyandincooperationwithpersonneloftheCorpsofEngineers.ThegeologicreconnaissanceoftheproposedDevilsCanyonandWatanadamsiteandreservoirareasdidnotuncoveranyevidenceforrecentoractivefaultingalonganyoftheknownorinferredfaults.Recentmovementofsurficialdepositshasoccurredastheresultofmasswastingprocessesand,possibly,byseismicshakingandminordisplacementsofbedrockalongjoints.Landslidinghasoccurredinthepastandfuturelandslidingappearsprobable.Theoccurrenceofunconsolidatedglacialdebris,alluvium,andTertiarysedimentsatelevationsbelowtheproposedreservoirwaterlevelsmayslumpandslideintothereservoirswhentheyareinundated.Someofthesesedimentsmay~epermanentlyfrozenand,locally,maybe71969-7380 -80-46 ice-richwhichincreasestheprobabilityofslumpingandslidingwhenthesedimentsarethawedbythewaterimpoundedbehind·thedams.ThetectonicframeworkoftheDevilsCanyonaridWatanadamsiteareasisnotwellunderstood.Thepresentknowledgeoftheareaindicatesthattbeseismicityoftheregionrangesindepthfromlessthan10kmtogreaterthan175km.Additionaldetailedgeologicaridseismicstudiesarenecessaryinordertoreliablyevaluatethepotentialgeologichazardsintheregionoftheproposeddamandreservoirsites.720 INTRODUCTIONThefeasibilityoftwodamsontheSusitnaRiver,Alaska,iscurrentlyunderevaluationbytheU.S.ArmyCorpsofEngineers.TheCorpsofEngineershasproposedtwodamsforthepurposeofdevelopingthehydroelectricpowerpotentialoftheSusitnaRiver:oneatDevilsCanyobandtheotherattheWatanasite.TheproposedDevilsCanyonsiteislocatedabout29km(l8miles)upstream·fromGoldCreekStationonTheAlaskaRailroad.Thisdamwouldbe194m(635ft)highandthereservoirformedwouldhaveawateraltitudeof442m(1,450ft)abovesealevelandwouldextendabout45km(28miles)upstreamtotheproposedWatanasite.TheheightoftheproposeaWatanadamwouldbe247m(810ft)anditsreservoirwouldhaveamaximumwateraltitudeof671m(2,200ft)andextendupstream87km(54miles).Thetotalpowerproducedbybothstructureswouldbeabout600megawatts(MW);approximately270MWatDevilsCanyonandtheremaining330(MW)atWatana·ThecurrentproposedlocationsforthedamsitesareshowninFigure1.Thestudyofactivefaults,seismicactivity,potentialandrecentlandslides,andotherpotentialgeologichazardsareofparticularconcerninthepreliminaryevaluationoftheproposedDevilsCanyonandWatanadamsites.andtheirreservoirs.TheU.S.ArmyCorpsofEngineersrequestedtheU.S.GeologicalSurveytomakesuchastudy.Authorization.fortheGeologicalSurveytomakethestudyisembodiedinaletterfromF.R.Brown,TechnicalDirector,CorpsofEngineersWaterwaysExperimentStationt6Dr.D~nla:sPeckVChiefGeologist,GeologicalSurvey(AppendixA)andaproposalletterto'DrFEllis721 Krinitzsky,CorpsofEngineers,byReubenKachadoorian(AppendixB).Inpractice,thescopeofthisreconnaissancewasmodifiedtoincludeamuchlargerareathanthatstatedinAppendixB.Thisreportisbasedessentiallyonreconnaissancegeologicobservations,bothonthesurfaceandfromoverflights,betweenJuly25,1978andAugust7,1978.FieldworkwasconductedusingahelicopterwhichwassharedjointlyandincooperationwithCorpsofEngineerspersonnelwhowereconductingdetailedstudiesat.theproposedWatanadamsite.Unfortunately,adverse.weathersignificantlycurtailedthenumberofsurfaceobservationsduringthelimitedamountoftimethatthehelicopterwasavailabletous.Detailsof.thebedrockgeologyarebeyondthescopeofthisreportbutthegeologicmapandreportofCsejteyandothers(978)isincludedinthisreportasAppendixCforthesakeofcompletenessandbecausewerefertosomeofthegeologicmapunits.Thegeologicmapinthereportwasimportanttoourreconnaissanceandwhereverwefieldcheckedit,wefoundittobecorrectandcommensurate·withitsscale.Itshouldberealizedthatmappingatalargerscale.wouldpermitfinersubdivisionofthemapunitsandportrayalinmoredetail.Additionally,thedefinitionsofthemapunitsarenotdirectedtowardengineeringproblems,butrathergeologicones;and,therefore,thisfactmustbeconsideredwhenusingtheenclosedgeologicmap.Themapshouldbeusedonlytodeterminethegro$sgeo1ogicsettingoftheproposedDevilsCanyonandWatanadamsites.andtheirreservoirs.ThemapincludesalloftheTalkeetnaMountains,Alaska,Quadrangle,and·smallsegmentsoftheHealy,Alaska,Quadrangle,inthe.northwestpartofthemapandtheAnchorage,Alaska,Quadrangleinthesouth.722 Figure1isintendedtoclarifythediscussionsanddatapresentedinthisreport.Ithasthreeparts:(1)a1:250,000scaletopographicmapoftheHealy,Alaska,Quadrangle,(2)a1:250,000scaletopographicmapoftheTalkeetnaMountains,Alaska,Quadrangle,and(3)atransparentoverlaydepictingtheinferredandactualfaultsinthereconnaissancearea·Theoverlayincludesthenorthernthree-fourthsoftheTalkeetnaMountainsQuadrangleandthesouthernone-fourthoftheHealyQuadrangle.thetransparentoverlaymaybesuperposedonthetopographicmapstolocatetheinferredandactualfaultsandotheritemsinthetext.Additionally,certainfeaturesdiscussedinthetextcanbelocatedonthetopographicmapsbyTownships,Ranges,andSections.ThegeologicmapinAppendixCalsohasthesamescaleasthetopographicmapsandtransparentoverlay.WemustemphasizethatthedataandconclusionspresentedinthisreportarebasedonareconnaissancestudyoftheproposedDevilsCanyonandWatanadamandreservoirsites.Toevaluatethoroughlytheproposeddamsit~sandtheirreservoirsadditionalstudiesmustbemade.Wespecifysomeofthese.studieslaterinthisreport.723 GEOLOGICBACKGROUNDThegeologyoftheSusitnaRiverarea(Csejteyandothers,1978;AppendixC)israthercomplex.Bedrockconsistschieflyoftightlyfolded,metamorphosed,andfaultedvolcanicandsedimentarysequencesthatrangeinagefromlatePaleozoictolateCretaceous·andoflateCretaceoustoEarlyTertiarygranodiorite(55to75m.y.old).TheserocksareoverlainbyTertiaryvolcanicandsedimentaryrocks(about50to58m.y.old).TertiarysedimentsofpossiblylateOligoceneage(about25m.y.old)(Wolfe,writtencommunication,1977)ateexposedinWatanaCreekabout7km(4.5miles)upstreamofitsconfluencewiththeSusitnaRiver.TheTertiarysedimentsaregentlytiltedaridpossiblyfaulted.UnconsolidatedsedimentsoflateWisconsinglaciation(8,000-12,000"'yearsago;Pewe,1975)covermuchofthestudyarea.TheselateWisconsinglacialsedimentsconsistofunconsolidatedtills,moraines,sandandgraveldepositsandeskers.Glacialscourfeaturescausedbythisglaciationarealsopresent.Theglacialsediments,inturn,havebeenandarebeingeroded,cut,andmodifiedbytheSusitnaRiverdrainagesystemandbymasswasting.TheserecentgeologiceventsarerepresentedbyV-shapedvalleys,riversandsandgravels,terracesediments,solifluction,slumps,landslides,talus,lakes,streamchannels,andotherfeaturesduetomasswastingprocesses.ThelateWisconsinglaciation(8,000to12,000y.old)coveredtheDevilsCanyon,Watanadam,andreservoirsites.Kacbadoorian(1974)reportedfieldevidencefromDevilsCanyonindicatingthattheSusitnaRiveroccupiesthesamechannelatthepresentasitdidpriortothe.724 LateWisconsinglacialperiod.RecentdiscoveryofglacialdebrisontheflooroftheSusitnaRiverCanyonupstreamfromtheWatanadamsiteconfirmsKachadooria.n.·spreviousobservationatDevilsCanyon.Ofparticularinterestherearethefaultsthathavebeeninferredtoexistbyvariousinvestigatorsinthearea.ThesefaultsareshowninFigure1andarelistedinTable1.Table1alsoincludesthedesignation,type,andthereferencefromwhichweobtainedtheinformationaboutthesefaults.725 Table1.InferredfaultsinthegeneralareaoftheDevilsCanyonandWatanadamaites,SusitnaRiver,AIaaltaY.umberDesignationleferenceTypelemarks1.ZoneofintenseIIhearina2.TalkeetnaThrust3.NearWatanaCreek4.NearPortageCreekS.ChulitnaRiver6.NorthofVABMSheep7.WestofVABMSheep8.SusitnaFault9.NearClarenceLake10.NearVABMWindus11.NorthofVA!MsGrebe-Ht.Watana12.EastofVABMSumarti-dason13.WatanaCreekCsejteyandothers,1978Csejteyandothers,1978Caejteyandothers,1978Csejteyandothers,1978Csejteyandothers,1978Csejteyandothers,1978CSejteyandothers,1978Anon.,1974a,Turnerandothers,1974;GedneyandShapiro,1975;TurnerandSmith,.1974Beikman,1974;Smithandothera,1975;TurnerandSmith,1974!elkman,1974;Smithandothers,1975,TurnerandSmith,1974Anon.,1974a;Beikman,Smithandothers,1975,TurnerandSmith,1974Anon.,1974aAnon.,1974a;TurneraUGSmith,1974;Smith'lndothers,1975ThrustThrustThrustThrustThrust&VerticalStrikeSlipStrikeSlipStrikeSlipHighAngleHighAngleThrustStrikeSlipNorlualEvidence.isstratigraphic"andpetrographic.Evidenceisstratigraphic.Evidenceisstratigraphic.Evidenceisstratigraphic.Evidenceisstratigraphic.Rightlateralwithsomeverticsldisplacement.'l'wofsults;leftlateralandrightlateral.Ev.idenceistopographiclineament;inferredtoberightlateralfromseismicdata.Displscementapparentlyvertical..Displacementapparentlyvertical.Evidenceisapparentlystratigraphic.Existenceisquestionedbytheauthors.Evidenceisstratigraphic.Alternatetracefornum~er4Evidenceisapparentlystratigraphic.Evidencepartlystratigraphic.ComplexThrust'l't1rust16.Cretaceoustorecentchearing15.NorthofDenali~~~~t~y,per~nalc~••1975;LahrandKachadoorian,1975Anon.,1974a;!eikman,1974;TurnerandSmith,1974Csejtcy,personalcommun.,1975;LshrandKachadoorian,1975JlTracesoftheseinferredfaultsareshowninFigure1~ndindicatedbycorrespondingnumber.726 PROCEDURESFourkindsofinformationhavebeengatheredinthispreliminaryreconnaissance"(1)groundandaerialobservationsonthetracesofknown-andinferredfaults,(2)visualobservationsofsurficialdepositsandlandformsmadeduringhelicopteroverflightsandlocallysupplementedbygroundobservations,(3)acomparisonoffirstorderlevelingelevationsconductedin,1922and1965,and(4)thelocationofepicentersandhypocentersofseismiceventsinthegeneralarea.Additionally,relevantreportsintheliteraturehavebeenconsultedforcertainareaswhereourobservationswereincompleteduetoinclementweatherandlackof'time.Groundandaerialobservationsfromahelicopterwerefntendedtoseekorconfirmstratigraphicevidenceforfaultsinthegeneralareaandtoseektopograpicandgeomorphicevidenceforrecent.faultingalongthemappedandinferredtraces.Thesefaulttraceswereobtainedfromtheavailableliteratureandunpublishedreports(Csejteyandothers,1978andAppendixC;Anon.,1974a;GedneyandShapiro,1975;Turnerandothers,1974;Beikman,1974;TurnerandSmith,1974;Smithandothers,1975;LahrandKachadoorian,1975).Visualobservationsduringhelicopteroverflightsinvolvedsearchingforscarps,topographiclineations,andoffsetsoflandformsthatmightbetheresultoffaulting--particularlyactivefaulting.Thecriteriarequiredtoestablishactivefaultingandrecentmovementswere:(1)offsetsofglaciallandforms,(2)offsetsofotherlandformssuchasstreamcourses,(3)freshscarpsthatweredevoidofvegetation,'and(4)superpositionoflandformsoverpreexistingones.Apartial727 ,dlistofthekindsofscarpsandlandformsthatonemightexpecttoobservearelistedinTable2.Firstorderleveling.elevationdatawereobtainedfromliteraturesuppliedbyThomasTaylor,Topographic.Division,U.S.GeologicalSurveyt.Anchorage,Alaska.ThesectiononSeismicActivitywaswrittenbyJohnLahrandChristopherStephens,CenterforEarthquakeStudies,U.S.GeologicalSurvey,MenloPark,California.JohnLahrmade..hisunpublisheddataavailabletous.Ourcriteria.fordesignatingafaultasactivewere..constrainedbythelocalgeology.MuchoftheareaaroundtheDevilsCanyonandWatanadamsitesismantledbylateWisc.onsin(8,000to12,000y.ago)glacialsediments.Insuchcasesourdefinitionofanactivefaultnecessarilyisonethathasmovedwithinthelast8,000to12,000years.Inareasunderlainbybedrock,afaultwouldbeconsideredactiveif.therewerefreshscarps.Most.inferredfaulttraceswerelocallymantledbylateWisconsinandyoungersurficialdeposits.728 Table2.Partiallistofscarpsandlandformsthatmaybefoundinasearchforactivefaults.PrimaryVolcanoes,flowfrontsRockstructuresJointscarps(masswasting,rockterraces,shearzones,folds,foliations,etc.GlacialfeaturesMoraines(lateral,end,ground),eskers,kames,kettles.Icecontactfeatures(scours,channels,U-shapedvalleys,rockterraces,rochesmountonnee,etc.)RiverBars,terraces,··meanderscars,valleysLakeWavecutcliffs,bars,deltas,thawscarpsOtherunconsolidateddepositsSoilcreepscarps,solifluctionlobes,gravityslumpsRockflowLandslides,avalanches,rockglaciersTectonicFaultscarps,sagfeatures,offsetdrainage,etc.WindSanddunes729 GroundandaerialobservationsalongtracesofknownandinferredfaultsDuringthispartofourreconnaissancewefoundnoevidenceforactivefaultingthatcouldbeunequivocallyrelated.totheinferredoractualfaultsinthegen~ralarea.Eachofthefaultsisdiscussedbelowbytheircorresponding.numberinTable1.1.Zoneofintenseshearing.ThezoneofintenseshearingwasexaminedonthegroundneartheTalkeetnaRiver(T28N,RSE,S34,NW1/4)•.Atthislocality,cataclasticallydeformedJurassicgranodioritewasobservedtobeincontactwithlatePaleozoicmetavolcanicsrocks(unitpzv,AppendixC)alonganintensezoneofshearing.Thecontactorfaultedzonebetweenthesetwounitswasoxidized.Thus,weconcurwiththeexistenceofthisshearzoneasmappedbyCsejteyandothers(1978).Noevidenceforactivefaultingwasobserved.ontheground.NeartheTalkeetnaRiver,theflattopofthemountainwasnotverticallyoffsetwhereitwasintersectedbytheshear.zone.Inaddition,observationsduringanoverflightoftheshearzoneafewmilestothesouthwestacrosstheTalkeetnaRiverandtothe..no.rthwestalongTsisi.."CreektoKosinaCreekandthentoVABMSumartidasonyieldednoevidenceoffreshscarpsanddrainageoffsets.StratigraphicevidenceindicatesnomovementhasoccurredsinceearlyTertiary(Csejteyandothers,1978;AppendixC).2.TalkeetnaThrust.Thisthrustfaultisinferredtobeconcealedthroughoutalmostallofitslength.Itisexposedalongits730 southwesttrace(T27N,RIW,S6)wherelatePaleozoicmetavolcanic.rocks(unitPzv,AppendixC)formthehangingwallandphyllitesandschists(unitKag,AppendixC)formthefootwall.UnfaultedTertiaryvolcanicsoverliethethrust(T28N,RIW).ThefaultandTertiaryvolcanicsasmappedbyCsejteyandothers(1978)appeartobecorrect.NoevidenceforscarpsoractivefaultingalongtheinferredtracefromPrairieCreek,byFogLakes,andalongWatanaCreekwerefoundbyus.Tertiary(Oligocene?)sedimentsinWatanaCreekaregentlytiltedandpossiblyfaulted,butnotrecently.3.NearWatanaCreek.Thisthrustiswellexposed(T33N,T22S,R2W)and,whereweexaminedit,Triassicmetavolcanicrocks(unit'IRv,AppendixC)makeupthehangingwallandJurassicsediments(unitJs,AppendixC)constitutethefootwall.Nearthefaulttrace,slickensidedJurassicsedimentsareabundant.WeagreewithboththeexistenceandlocationofthisfaultasmappedbyCsejteyandothers(1978).AerialreconnaissancesuggeststhefaultcontinuesintotheHealyQuadrangleasindicatedinFigure1.WefoundnoevidenceforactivefaultingatthelocalityexaminedoralongthefaulttracetothenortheastintheHealyQuadrangle.4.NearPortageCreek.Thisthrustiswellexposedalongitsmappedlength(T33N,R9W,RBW)andTriassicmetabasaltsandslates(unit'IRvs,AppendixC)arefound·tothenorthofthefaulttracewhileCretaceousphyllites(unitKag,AppendixC)arefoundtothesouthofthetrace.UnfaultedTertiaryvolcanicsandsedimentsoverliethethrusttotheeast(T22S,R7W,R6W)andthethrustisterminatedbyintrusionofTertiarygranodioritetothewest(T33N,RIE,SI8).731 We~oundrioevidenceofactivefaultingal~ngthistraceandagreethatmovementoccurredbeforethe.earlyTertiary(Csejteyandothers,1978).5.ChulitnaRiver.Timeandinclementweatherdidnotpermitadequatereconnaissanceofthisareabutstratigraphicevidenceshowsavarietyoffaultsarepresent(Csejteyandothers,1978).Existingmapsindicatethereisnoactivetorecentfaulting(Csejteyandothers,1918),AppendixC;ReedandNelson,1977).FirstorderlevelingelevationsweremeasuredacrosstheChulitnaRiver;theresultsofthesemeasurementsarediscussedlaterinthisreport.6.NorthofVABMSheep.Groundobservationswerenotmadebyus.Evidenceforstrikeslip.andverticalmovementisrepresentedbyoffsetofcontactsbetweenTertiarygranodioritesandolderCretaceousandPaleozoicrocks(Csejteyandothers,1978).Duringoverfligh.tsalongthetraceofthefault,noevidenceforactivefaultingwasfoundeitheroverthewoodedareasoralongtheTalkeetnaRiver.7.WestofVABMSheep.Groundobservationswerenotmadebyus.Evidenceforthesefaultsissimilartothatin6above.Duringoverflightsalongt:hetracesofthesefaults,noeVid.enceforactivefaultingwasfound.8.Susitnafault.Thetrace·ofthisinferredfaultpasses.fromthevicinityofStephanLake,alongDeadmanCreektoButteLakeintheHealyQuadrangle,andthenacrossthewestforkoftheSusitnaRiver(Anon.,1974a).Evidenceforthisfaultisprimarily.geomorphic,andcomprisesaprominentlinearonLANDSATimagery(GedneyandShapiro,732 1975).Rightlateraldisplacementhasbeenpostulatedonthebasisofseismicevidence(GedneyandShapiro,1975):IncontrasttoGedneyandShapiro(1975),wefindnocompellingevidenceforthisfaultintheseismicdatareportedbythemoravailabletous(seeAppendixD).Thispositionisbasedontwofactors.First,>plotsofourdataandtheirdatadonotshowastrikingcorrelation,1£8ny,ofepicenterswiththeinferredtraceofthefault.Second,thedataarenotcompleteenoughorpreciseenough.tobeusedinthiswaybecausethecoverageoftheseismicnetisinadequateforprecisedeterminationofepicenterandhypocenterlocationsintheSusitnafaultarea.Additionalseismicstationscouldresolvetheproblem.Stratigraphicevidenceforthisfaultisweaktonon-existent.ThegeologicmapofTurnerandSmith(1974)indicatesstratigraphicevidencewhichiscontradictedbyCsejteyandothers(1978).Tertiarygranodioritesandtheirborderphases(unitTsmgormigmatizedrocks,AppendixC)liealongthetraceofthefault.Tertiaryvolcanicrocks(unitTv,AppendiXC)occuratrelativelylowaltitudesinFogCreek(T31N,R4E,R5E)andmaybedown-faulted.LackoftimepreventedusfrommakingdetailedstudiesofthevolcanicrocksinFogCreek.Overflightsalongtheinferredtraceofthisinferredfaultindicatethatact!vefaultinghasnotoccurredalongthetrace.EvidenceforscarpsandhorizontaloffsetsareabsentfromStephanLakenortheasttoapointacrosstheSusitnaRiver.NumerousfreshscarpsoccuralonglowerTsusenaCreekandupperDeadmanCreektoButteLake.FreshscarpsandhorizontaloffsetsareabsentnortheastofButteLakewherelateWisconsinre-advance(8,000y.ago)glacialgroundmoraines733 arepresent.Thefreshscarps.observedarebelievedtobeduetolandsliding,slumping,solifluction,andstreamerosion.OrientationofthescarpsandthelocalizedhummockytopographyattheedgeofTsusenaCreeknearWatanathedamsite(T32N,RSE,S21,28,29)areconsistentwithalandslide.InupperDeadmanCreek,freshscarpshaveavarietyoforientationsbuttheytendtofaceinsoutherlyorinadownslopedirection.Thetracesofthescarpsarecommonlyarcuateandakilometer(about0.6ofamile)orle.ssinlength.Forthesereasons,webelievethesescarpsaretheresultofrecentslumping,solifluctionandsoilcreep.Itisnoteworthythatfreshscarpsareab.sentinthemorainesnortheastofButteLake.Ifthesescarpswereinterpretedtoresultfromfaulting,itwouldfollowthatthefaultingwaspre-moraine(olderthanabout8,000yrsandyoungerthan.12,000yrs).OtherfreshscarpsonDeadmanCreekareclearlymeanderscars.Insummary,wefindnoconclusiveevidenceforafaultoractivefaultingalongtheinferredtrace.oftheSusitnafaultbutratherlandsliding,slumping,solifluction,andsoilcreep.Theproductionofthefreshscarpsmaybepartlyrelatedtogeneralseismicactivityinthearea,however.9.NearClarenceLake.Theevidenceforthisinferredfaultisapparentlystratigraphic(TurnerandSmith,1974),butnosuchstratigraphicevidencewasfoundbyCsejteyandothers,(1978;AppendixC).Jurassicamphibolites(unitJam,AppendixC)occuronbothaidesoftheinferredfaulttracebutthere.isachangeinmetamorphicgradeinzonesparalleltoit(Csejtey,personalcomm.,197.8).Afewscarpsoccuralongthehillsidesnearthetracebutthese.arebest734 attributedto..solifluctionandslumping.10.NearVABMWindus.Thisfaultrunsparallelto.theSusitnaRiverandpassestothesouthofVABMWindus.Hereagain,TurnerandSmith(1974)reportstratigraphicevidenceforitwhereasCsejteyandothers(1978)donotreportevidenceforthefault.Jurassicamphibolites(unitJam,AppendixC)occuronbothsidesof·theinferredtraceovernearlyits.entirelength.Wefoundnoevidenceforactivefaultsalongthetraceofthisinferredfault.Theeasternpartofthe.trace.transectsglacialgroundmorainesandeskers.Noverticalorhorizontaloffsetsoftheassociatedlandformswereobserved.Freshscarpswith3to4.6m(10to15ft)ofreliefareparticularlyabundantnearthetraceinthevicinityofVABMWindus.Tracesofthesefreshscarpsparallel.thelocalelevationcontoursandafewoccuronthenortheastslopesoftheWindushill.This,combinedwithlargeamountsofsurfaceandspringwaterrunoffobservedduringtheoverflight,suggestthatthescarpsareduetoslumping,solifluction,andsoilcreep.Tlltedtreessouth.ofthescarpsuggestmovementofsurfacematerialsoccurredwithinthe.last40to.50years.11.NorthofVABMsGrebeandMt.Watana.ThisinferredfaulttransectsPaleozoicrocks(unitPzv,AppendixC)northofVABMsGrebeandMt.Watana,crossestheSusitnaRiver,andthenmoreorlessparallelsthecontactbetweenthePaleozoicrocks(unitPzv)andTriassicmetavolcanics(TlV,Appendi)CC)<.Stratigraphicevidenceforthisfaultisgenerallylacking,althoughthecontactbetweenthePaleozoicrocksandTriassicmetavolcanicsmightbeinferredtobea735 fault.Csejteyandothers(1978)donotreportafaultalongtheinferredtrace.Whenwecheckedthisfaultontheground,wefoundnostratigraphicorgeomorphicevidenceforit.DlJringtheoverflightalongthetraceoftheinferredfault,freshscarpsandhorizontaloffsetsofglacialfeatures(moraines,eskers,etc.)andothersurficialdepositswerenotobserved.Thus,activefaultinghasnotoccurredalongtheinferredtraceaftertheglacialfeatureswereformed.12.EastofVABMSumartidason.Theexistenceofthisfaultisquestionedbytheauthors{Arion.,1974a).Thetracewa.snotexaminedduringanoverflightbecauseitwasunknowntouspriortothereconnaissance.13.WatimaCreek.Thetraceofthisfaultgenerallycoincideswiththeinferred>tracesoftheTalkeetnathrust(see2above)andthe"NearWatanaCreek"(see3above)faultsandhasbeeninferredtohaveverticaldisplacement(north-sideup)(Arion.,1974a;TurnerandSmith,1974).StratigraphicevidenceinsupportofthisfatiltincludesJura.ssicsedimerits>{unitJs,AppendixC)infaultcontactwithTriassi,cvolcanics(unitTRv,AppendixC)andtheoccurrenceoftiltedTertiarysediments(unitTsu,AppendixC;T32N,R7E)atlowaltitudes~Wefoundnoevidencefofactivefaultingalongthetraceofthisfault.14.AlongPortageCreek.Thisfaulttracewasanalternatetracetotheeasternpartofthethrustfaultin·4above(Csejtey,personalcomm.,1975).WefoundnoevidenceforactivefaultingalongPortageCreek.736 15.NorthofDenali.Evidenceforthisfaultisapparentlystratigraphicanditstraceistruncatedbyintrusives(Cretaceousinage?)(Anon.,1974a;TurnerandSmith,1974).Boththemappingandoverflightsinthegeneralareaindicatethisfaultisinactive.16.Cretaceousto.recentshearing.Timeandinclementweatherdidnotpermitadequatereconnaissanceofthisareawhichisthesameareaasnumber5above.ThereasonsforinferringrecentfaultingaretwopoorlyexposednormalfaultsintheChulitnaRivervalley(Csejteyandothers,1978).Csejtey(personalcomm.,1978)statesthatapparentlymiddleTertiaryoryoungersedimentshave.beendisplacedbythefaults.However,existingmapsindicatethereisnoactivetorecentfaulting(Csejteyandothers,1978;AppendixC;ReedandNelson,1977).Asstatedearlier,lackof.timeandinclementweatherdidnotpermit.ustoinvestigatethesefaultsthoroughly.Therefore,itisunknown.to.uswhetheranyactivefaultinghasoccurredalongthesefaults.intheChulitnavalley.Weattempt,however,toevaluatethisfaultzone.bystudyingfirstorderlevelingdata.Theresultsoffirstorderlevelingsurveysacrossthefaultzonearediscussedlater.737 VisualobservationsduringhelicopterflightsWithinthestudyarea,anumberofgeologicphenomenawereobserved~romtheairWhicharerelevanttothegeologicproblemsrelatedtodamconstruction.Themostimportantare:1)verysteeplydippingjoint""setsandshearzonesarecommon,··2)thereareasignificantnumberofshortfreshscarps,3)landslide,shaveoccurredinthepastandnewonesmayoccurinthefuture,4)permafrostispresent,atlea.stlocally,and5)locallytills,alluvium,andTertiarysedimentswithverylowcohesionsoccurataltitudesneara.ndbelowtheexpectedwaterleveloftheDevilsCanyonandWatanadamreservoirs.Verysteeplydippingjointsetsandshearzonesarecommon(seeforexampleKachadoorian,1974).Althoughthesejointsetsandshearzonesdonotnecessarilyposedamconstructionproblems,theirimplicationstoactivetectonicmovementsandlandslidingareimportant.Inregardtoactivetectonicmovements,itseemsconceivablethatminorverticalandhorizontaladjustmentsduringtectonicactivitycouldoccuralongthemwithoutproducinglongcontiriuousfaultsbutrathershortscarpswithsmalldisplacement(4.6m,·15ft)..Thus,uplift~nddeformationcouldbeaccomplishedbysmallverticalandhorizontalmovementsalongamyriadofjoinbs.Insomeplaces,jointsetsaresonumerousthattheTertiarygranodioritessuperficiallyresemblecolumnarbasalt(suchasinT31N,R3E,817).Inmanyplacesbothfreshscarpsandgraben-likestructuresappeartobecontrolledbythesejointsWhileinotherplaces,freshscarpsparalleltheshearzones.InadditiontoprOVidingplanesofweaknessforminortectonicmovements,thejointsetswillalsopartlycontrollandslidingandrock738 falls.2.Freshscarpsareconspicuouslyabundantinthegeneralarea.Noneofthesecanbeunequivocallyascribedtoactivefaultingbutlocalminorverticaladjustmentsoftheorderof1.5to3 m(5to10ft)cannotbeexcludedforsomeofthem.Othersar~bestattributedtoslumping,solifluction,soilcreep,andlandslip.a.Solifluctionandslump.scarps.FreshscarpsnearVABM'Undusareagoodexampleofscarpsproducedbyslumpingandsolifluction.Theyarefreshandunvegetatedwithreliefstoabout4.6m(15ft).TheyappeartobetheresultofrecentmovementbysolifluctionbecausesegmentedtracesofscarpstothesouthofVABMWindustrendparalleltothetopographiccontours,afewofthemoccuronthenortheastsideoftheWindushill,andtreesdownslopehaveavarietyoforientations.Judgingfromthetiltedtrees,movementhasoccurredwithinthelast40to50years.Numerousspringswereobservedduringtheoverflightandpolygonsarepresent2.5km(1.5miles)westofVABMWindus.AdditionalplaceswherethefreshscarpscanbeattributedtosolifluctionandslumpingarelistedinTable3.b.Otherscarps.Avarietyofothertypesofscarpsarepresent(Table4)andsomeoftheseneedspecialdiscussion.Ingeneral,freshappearingscarpsfaceinsoutherlydirections.AgroupofsuchscarpsneartheWatanadamsitedeservespecialcommentbecausedetailedgeologicstudiesandaerialobservationsrevealnearlyverticalshearzonesthattrendnorthwest(GlenGreely,CorpsofEngineers,personalcommun.,1978)andthetracesofnearbyfreshscarpsalsotrendinnorthwesterlydirections.Thesescarpsappeartobeoftwotypeswhichareunrelatedtotheshearzones.Thefirsttype(item2,Table4)is739 Table3.LocationofselectedexamplesofscarpsintheTaleetnaMountainsQuadrangle.NumberTownshipRangeSection1.C-lT30N·RH1,2,H,13,142.VABMlUndusC-2T31N R10E26through3033through363.C-2T30NR10E224.C-2T30N R9 E15,165.C-2T30N R8 E3,9,15,146.C-2T29N R 1 E19,20,21,28,297.D-2T33N R10E228.D-3T22SR4 W21,28, 29,31,339.D-3T33N R 5 E19,20,25,26, 27,3410.WatanaSiteD-4T32NR5 E21H.D-4T33NR 4 E28,29,'3112.D-4T33N R 3 E27,28,34,3613.D-4T32NR 4 E29,32740 Table4.8electedexamplesoflandformswithsteepscarp-likesurfaces.Feature10.OldRiverchannelsContentsLateralCloseto8usitnaRiverLateralEndNearWatanadamsiteInDeadmanCreekNearWatanadamsiteLOcationl!(C-4)T30NR2E824(C-l)T30NRllE823(D-4)T31NR3E87,8,17(C-2)T31NR9E825,36(C-2)T30NR10E811(D-5)T32NR2E833(C-2)T30NR9E87,8(C-5)T29NR1E821(D-4)T32NR5E829,828(C-1)T30N.RllE,RI2E,824,25(C-l)T30NR12E89,16,17(C-3)T30NRSE824(C-3)T30NR7E819(C-4)T30NR5E830(D-2)T31NR8E89,16,17(C-4)T30NR5E85,8,17(D-3)T228..R5W836(D-3)T228R4W830(C-3)T30NR8E85,6,7,8HealyQuaCl.T208R1W84,5,6(D-3)T33NR6E819(D-3)T32NR5E814MorainesKamesandKettlesThawlakeshoresAltiplanationscarpsLandslideEskers7.8.3.4.5.6.Oldappearing9.Glacial8courFreshappearing1.Meanderscars/cutbanks2.Meanderscars/thawlakeshores~Letterdesignationsreferto1:63,360scaletopographicmapsoftheTalkeetnaMountains.741 believedtobeduetothecombinedeffectsofancientstreamsandthawlakes.Excavationofthematerialsinoneofthescarpsrevealeditisunderlainbybedded,pebblytocobblyfine-tomedium-grainedsandsdepositedbystreams.Thec9lUplexarrayofthescarpssuggestthatth~yareformermeanderscars.Additionally,manyofthescarpspartlysurroundthawlakesandboulderybedsofformerthawlakes.Althoughfreshscarpsintheareatendtofacesouthwest,somevegetatedonesthatfaceinnorthtonortheastdirectionsarepres7nt.Thus,weattributethistypeofscarptothecombinedactionofancientlakesandstreamsandtoreceqttha~ngandfreezing.Thesecondtype(item5,Table4)isclassified~salandslidebecausethehummockysurfaceofsouthwestfacingscarpsandbenchesareconfinedtoasmallareaandareconsistentwithsoilmovementtowardthesouth~st.Thelandslideisnotrelatedtotheshearzonesbecausesedimentscomprisethematerialoftheslideandnobedrockoccurs.init.Freezingandthawingm.ayhavebeenthemajorcauseofmovmentsproducingthesescarpsandbenchesbutwehaveclassedthemaslandslidesbecauseoftherelativelylargeamountofmovement.742 Theoriginofsomefreshscarpsisunclearandtherelativelylargeabundanceofscarpsmightbepartlytheresultofmildtectonicactivityandseismicshaking~Manyscarps,bothfreshandold,arealignedparalleltolocaljointdirections(C-5,T31N,R1E,834,35;andC-5,T31N,R2E,S33)andcouldrepresenttheresultsoflocaltectonicadju~ments.Thefreshscarpsassociatedwithjointsetsandslumpingareclearlyrecentasshownbytheir~ackofvegetationandtiltedtrees.Seismicwavesmaybepartlyresponsiblefortheserecentmovements.2.OlderScarps.Oldervegetatedandlichencoveredscarpsaresimilartothefreshscarps,buthere,twoadditionaltypeshavebeenobserved:graben-likestructuresinbedrockandoldriverchannels.Thegraben-likestructures(item10,Table4)aregenerallyshortinlength(afractionofakm)andshallow.Theirlengthstrendwesterlywhichisthegeneraldirectionofglacialmovementinthearea.Becauseoftheshortlength,orientation,andgraben-likeform,weattributethemtoglacialpluckingandscouring.Oldriverchannelsalsooccur(item9,Table4).Theseoldchannelsarearcuategraben-likelandformssubparalleltothepresentcourseofthe8usitnaRiver.3.Landslides.AlthoughnotparticularlyabundantthroughouttheDevilsCanyonandWatanaarea,landslideshaveoccurredinthe.pastandnewonesmayoccurinthefuture.Wenotedseverallargelandslidesalongthe8usitnaRiverintheproposedDevilsCanyonandWatanareservoirsites.Theevidenceforoldlandslidesisstraightforward.Thosecomppsed'chieflyofrockoccurasisolatedblocks(orhills)dowuslopeofarcuatescarswithaboutthesameaerialdimensionsasthe743 block.Twosuchslideswereobservedandare'listedinTable5(items1and2).Landslidesin'unconsolidatedsediments,suchasalluviumandglacialtill,formhummockysurfacesofscarps,terraces,andridges(item3,Table5).IdentificationofpotentiallandslidesusinggeomorphicevidencefromoverflightsisproblematicalandthenumberofpotentialHindslideslistedinTableScouldeitherbeanoverestimateoranunderestimateofthepotentiallandslidesintheDevilsCanyonandWatanareservoir'areas.Wehave,however,listedthemtoindicatethepotentialforfuture1andslidinginthearea.Also,thoselisteddonot·includepossiblelandslidingofbedrockandunconsolidatedsedimentsoncetheybecomesaturatedwithwaterduringreservoirfilling.ItwasnotwithinourchartertomapindetailtheabutmentsoftheproposedWatanadamsiteasKachadoorian(1974)didattheproposedDevilsCanyondamsite.Therefore,theabutmentsoftheWatanasiteshouldbethoroughlyexaminedforpossiblepotentiallandslides.•4.Permafrost.Permanentlyfrozengroundorpermafrostispresentintheproposeddamandreservoirareas.Duringouroverflightsnumerousicewedgepolygonswerenoted,someofwhicharelistedinTable6.Wealsonotedslum.pingofsurficialdebrisonpermafrostinthe5usitnaRivercanyonataboutaltitude580m(1,900ft)(T31N,R4E,521),about11km(7miles)downstreamoftheproposedWatanadamsite.PermafrostwasalsoreportedinthesurficialdepositsduringdrillingattheproposedVeeCanyondamsite(Anon.,1962)about65km(40miles)upstreamo~,theWatanasiteandinunconsolidatedseditD.entsandbedrockoftheleftabutmentoftheproposedWatanadamsite(CorpsofEngineers,personalcommun.,1978).744 745Table5.Locationsofoldlandslidesandpotentiallandslides.YLetterdesignationsreferto1:63,360scaletopographicmapsoftheTalkeetnaMountainsQuadrangle.CommentsWeaklydevelopedscarpat366m(1200ft).Weaklydevelopedscarpat549m(1800ft).Blockofrocksisseveralhundredfeetacross.NorthofWatanadamsite,slidematerialisalluviumandfilLBlockofrocksisseveralhundredfeetacross.Topofmassat610m(2000ft).LocationY3.(D-4)T32NR5E8-28(NW1/4)&8-29(NE1/4)2.(D-4)T32NR4E8-33(NE1/2)&834(NW1/4)5.(D-4)T31NR2E8-12(E1/2)6.(C-2)T31NR9E8-26(81/2)4.(D-3)T32NR6E8-32(N1/2).I.(D-3)T32NR6E8-28(8E1/4)OldLandslidesPotentialLandslides Table6.Locationswherepatternedgroundwasobserved.LocationJ'(D-4)T32NR5ES28(C-2)T31NRI0ES28,33(C-2)T30NR9ES10,15(C-4)T30NR5ES7,8(C-4)T29NR4ES2(C-5)T30NRIWS3(C-5)T30NRIES19~Letterdesignationsreferto1:63,360scaletopographicmapsoftheTalkeetna.MountainsQuadrangle.746 Inordertoevaluatethepermafrost-relatedgeotechnicalproblemsintheproposedDevilsCanyonandWatanadamandreservoirsites,adetailedstudyofthenature,character,anddistributionofpermafrostshouldbemade.OfparticularimportanceisthepermafrostthatunderliestheleftabutmentoftheproposedWatanadamsite.5.Till,alluvium,andTertiarysediments.Locally,poorlyconsolidatedtills,alluvium,andTertiarysedimentsoccuratwaterlevelsthatarelowerthantheplannedaltitudesofthefilledreservoirsofthetwodams(DevilsCanyon:442m(1,450ft);Watana666m(2,185ft)).Wettingofthematerialsandthawingoficeinthemwillcauseweakeningofthematerialsandmaycausesubsequentslumping,mudslides,andothermassmovements.ThisproblemismoreprobablefortheWatanareservoirthanitisfortheDevilsCanyonreservoir.FQrtheDevilsCanyonreservoir,thefrequencyofoutcropsofrockbelowaltitudesof442m(1,450ft)isstrikingalongtheentirelengthoftheSusitnaRivervalleythatwouldbeoccupiedbythereservoir.Tillsappeartooccuraboveabout610m(2,000ft)butsomealluvialfanswouldbeinnundated.FortheWatanareservoir,theoccurrenceoftillandsedimentsbeginswithin3km(about2miles)upstreamoftheproposeddamsite.Here,tillsandsedimentsoverliebedrockandthecontact.betweenthemisnear579to610m(1,900to2,000ft).TheamountofbedrockexposedalongtheSusitnaRiverupstreamoftheplanneddamsiteisimpressivebutataltitudes.near610m(2,000ft)andhigher,tillsandothersedimentsareconspicuous.Eskersoccurupstreamatanaltitudeof549m(1,800ft).Alluviumandtalusarealsocommonbelow671m(2,200ft)alongtheriver.~7 BothtillsandTertiaryfluviatilesedimentsthatwouldbeinundatedbythereservoiroccurinWatanaCreek.SomeofthefluviatileTertiarysedimentsareclayswhich,whenwetted,becomeveryweakandmayevendisaggregate.748_. FirstOrderLevelingObservationsTheresultsoffirstorderlevelingareincludedherebecause(1)thetraversepassesacrossthezoneofCretaceoustorecentshearing'andfaultingintheChulitnaRivervalley(Table1,number16)andacrosstheDenalifault(LahrandKachadoorian,1975),and(2)becausethel~velingwasaccomplishedbeforeandaftertheAlaskanearthquakeof1964.Comparisonsofthefirstorderaltitudes,measuredinthesummersof1922and1965alongTheAlaskaRailwayfromSunshinetoMcKinleyPark(Rappleye,1930;Anon.,1973)revealthatdifferencesinaltitudesofbenchmarksmeasuredinthetwosurveyscannotbeattributedtofaultswithlarge'displacements.Thesealtitudes,whicharetabulatedinTable7,areeverywherewithin0.21m(0.7ft)ofoneanother.AccordingtoThomasTayloroftheTopographicDivisionoftheGeologicalSurveyinAnchorage,Alaska,differencesinexcessof0.30m(1ft)wouldprobablyexceedtheuncertainties.inalti~udechangesofsomebenchmarksduetofrostheaving.Atentativeanalysisofthedataindicate,however,thattheremaybeasystematicchangeinaltitudesbetweenthetwosurveys.Thedataindicatethatthereappearstobesometilting,oftheorderofafoot(0.3m)withthesouthsidedownbetweenSunshineonthesouthtoYanerttothenorth.BecausewedonotknowwhichofthebenchmarksareinunconsolidatedsedimentandsubjecttofrostheaVingandwhicharenot,wedonotbelieveananalysisofthedatacanpermitustostatethattherehasbeenanyactivefaultingbetween1922and1965.Becauseofthedifferencesinaltitudesdetectedduringthefirst-orderleveling,webelievetheVerticalAngleBenchMarks.shouldberemeasuredinordertodetectpossibledisplacementswiththeDevilsCanyonandWatanadamsiteareassubsequenttotheinitialsurveys.749 Table7.First-orderlevelingfromthevicinityofSunshinetoMcKinleyPark.Altitude(infeet)JJStationDesignation19221965DifferenceJ-2Sunshine285.895285.219~O.676M-2Talkeetna346.259345.675-0.5840-2Chase411.239410.718-0.521U-2Curry543.358543.004-0.354V-2Sherman587.200586.908-0.292X-2GoldCreek691.764691.610-0.154Z-2Canyon856.173856.015-0.158A-3Canyon1044.5551044.417-0.138E-3HurricaneGulch1629.9741629.951-0.023F-3Honolulu1495.3221495.381+0.059K-3Colorado2063.090 2063.247+0.157L-3Broadpass2059.5692059.720+0.151P-3Cantwell2246.373 2246.547+0.174S-3Windy2076.0362076.285+0.249T-3Windy1996.8731996.974+0.101U-3Carlo1956.367 1956.627+0.260V-3Yanert1950.3571950.678+0.321W-3Yanert1950.5741950.905+0.331Y-3McKinleyPark1717.2011717.382+0.181~AltitudereportedinfeetbecauseFirst-Orderlevelingrecordedinfeet.Theconversionfactoris0.3048meters/foot.-indicatesdecreaseinaltitudefrom1922to1965.+indicatesincreaseinaltitudefrom1922to1965.750 AdditionalObservationsAlthoughitmaynotbewithinourcharter,wewouldliketocommentaboutthesedimentloadintheglaciallyfedSusitnaRiver.OfparticularinteresthereistherateatwhichtheWata.nareservoirmightbefilledbythesuspendedloadandthebedloadoftheriver•Ourestimatesofthetimetofillthereservoirusingnominalvaluesoftheratesandsuspendedload(Anon.,1974b),arenearoneortwothousandyears.However,suspenaedandbedloadsofglaciallyfedstreamsarehighlyvariable.Thus,wefeelthattheremaybeinsufficientdetaileddatatoprovideanadequateestimateofthelifetimeofthedamandthatsuchdatashouldbegatheredandanalyzedtoinsurethatthereisanadequatelifetimefortheWatanadam.Duringouraerialandgroundobservations,wefoundnoevidenceforrecentvolcanism.ScoriaceousrocksdooccurintheTertiarysedimentsofWatanaCreekbutthesearetheresultofheatingbysubsurfaceburningofthelignitebedsinthedistantpast.HenryHoorenotedevidenceforicingonorneartheleftabutmentoftheproposedWatanadamsite.SuchicingwasverifiedbyGlenGreely,CorpsofEngineers(personalcomm.,1978).Wedonotknowthesourceofwaterforthisicing.Therefore,werecommendthattheleftabutmentbethoroughlyinvestigatedtodeterminethesourceandlocationofthewaterrelativetotheproposeddam.WedetectedsomelineamentsintheactiveoutwashplainoftheWestForkGlacier.Theselineamentsoccurabout5km(3miles)southofthepresentterminusoftheglacierandareabout97km(60miles)northeastoftheproposedWatanadamsite.Thelineamentsareinterpret~dtobe751 sanddikesthatdevelopedduring.seismicshakingfromanearthquake.The.ageofthesanddikesisunknownbuttheyareconsidered.toberelativelyyoungbecausetheyarewellpreservedandoccurintheactiveoutwashplainoftheWestForkGlacier.Lackoftimedidnotpermitustomakeanextensiveinvestigationoftheareatoadequatelydeterminetheextentanddistributionof.thesanddikes.752 SeismicACtivityTheDevilsCanyonandWatanadamsitearealieswithinaregioncharacterizedbyahighrateofseismicactivitythatistheresultoftecto.nicinteractionbetweenthePacificandNorthAmericanlithosphericplates.The.Pacificplateisbeingthr:usttothenorthwestbeneaththeNorthAmericanplate(LahrandKachadoorian,1975).Theearthquakesaffectingthisregionaregener:allyofthreetypes:(1)shallow(depthlessthanabout50km)earthquakes(suchasthe1964Alaska.earthquake)whichoccuronthesurfaceofcontactbetweenthePacificandNorthAmericanplatestoaccommodatetheir.relativemotion;(2)shallowearthquakeswhichoccurwithintheNorthAmericanplate(includingAlaska)inresponsetothestressesproducedbyinteractionwiththePacificplate;and(3)deeperearthquakes(depths.from50to200km)tha.toccur.withintheportionofthePacificplatethathasbeenthrustbeneathAlaska.TheselatterearthquakesdefinearegioncalledtheBenioffzone.Earthquakeswhichareoccurring.intheregion.oftheproposeddamsites.areofthetypesdescribedinthelasttwocategories,althoughearthquakesofallthreetyp.esarecapableofproducingstronggroundl:lhakingatthe.proposedsites.LahrandKachadoor.ian(l975)reviewedthe/seismicdata.availablefromtheU.S.G.•S.(formerlyN.O.A.A.)EarthquakeDataFile.fortheperi()tl1900.toFebruary.1975.Usingonly.themorer.eliableearthquakelocations,theyshowedthatthedepthofearthquakesin'theregionoftheproposedreservoirsrange.fromlessthan10kmtogreater·than175km.Thedepthto/theBenioffzonedirectlybeneaththeproposeddamsitesisabout50kmto80·.km.Distributionofepicentersofshallow753 earthquakes,accordingtopresentlyavailabledata,istooscatteredtoreliablyassociatethemwithindividualfaults.Fordesignpurposestherearetwoquestionsofmajorimportance.First,aretherepotentialactivefaultsorotherzonesofweakness'beneaththeproposedstructuresWhichcouldcausedirectstructuraldamageduringanearthquake?Second,whatarethespatial,temporal,andmagnitudedistributionsofearthquakesintheregionandasaresult,whataccelerationswilltheproposedstructuresprobablyexperience>duringtheirlifetime?TheprocessofidentifyingactivefaultsonthebasisofearthquakelocationsislimitedbytheaccuracytoWhichthelocationsca.nbedetermined,aswellasbythesmallestmagnitudeearthquakethatcanberecorded.Thesetwoparametersarehighlydependentupon:thenumberanddistr.ibutionofseismographstationsusedindeterminingalocation.AregionalseismographnetworkdidnotexistinsouthernAlaskabefore1967.Priortothattime,theaccuracyofepicentralcoordinateswas50kmormore,errorsindepthwereontheorderof100kmormore,andthesmallestmagnitudeeventsthathadbeendetectedwereabout41/2ontheRichterscale.Since1967,routinelocationsforearthquakesassmallinmagnitudeasabout1havebeendeterminedwithaccuraciesof10-15kminepicenterandabout25kmindepth.Since1971themS.G.s.hasoperatedanetworkofseismicstationsinsouthernAlaska.ThedistributionofearthquakehypocentersandmagnitudesdeteminedusingthisnetworkgenerallyconfirmstheconclusionsreachedbyLahrandKachadoorian(1975).RecentU.S.G.S.dataallowmorepreciseresolutionof.thedepthto··thetopoftheBenioffzoneandoftheextentofshallowcrustalactivity-Thedistributionoftheepicentersoftheshallow754 earthquakesdoesnotshowastrongcorrelationwithmappedfaults,althoughthecurrentaccuracytowhichtheseepicentersaredetermineddoesnotprecludethepossibilitythattheearthquakesareoccurringalongmapped.oriasyetunknownfaults.Toobtainthenumberofaccuratelylocatedearthquakesnecessarytoresolvethisquestionitwillbenecessarytoestablishalocalnetworkofseismicstationsintheregionoftheproposeddamsites.Thetectonicsoftheregionaretoopoorlyknownatthistimetomakeareliablepredictionforthedistributionofevents.thatmaystronglyshakethedamsites.CertainlytheBenioffzoneactivitywillcontinueaswilltheshallowregionalactivity.Inaddition,theDenalifault,whichlieslessthan80kmnorthoftheproposeddamsites,isamajorstrike-slipfaultwithgeologicevidencefora 3cm/yraverageHoloceneslip.Thisfaultcouldsustainamagnitude8.0event.Inadditiontothenaturallyoccurringearthquakeactivityintheregion,thereisalsothehazardthatfillingofareservoirmaytriggerpotentiallydamagingearthquakes(aslargeasmagnitude6orgreater)intheimmediatevicinityofthedamsites(Lahrand)Kachadoorian,1975).Continuousmonitoringbyalocalnetworkofseismicstationsintheregionbeginningwellinadvanceoffillingthereservoirswouldallowthe.·leveLofnaturalambientseismicity.tobedetermined.Unlessthenaturallevelis·wellestablished,an/importantopportunitytostudythisphenomenawillbelost,andpossiblyunwarrantedconclusionsconcerningin4ucedseismicitymaybemadein·thefuture.755 SUMMARYOurgeologicreconnaissanceoftheproposedDevilsCanyonandWatanadamsitesaridreservoirareas,·SusitnaRiver;Ala.ska;didnotuncoverevidenceforrecentoractivefaultingalonganyoftheknownandinferredfaults.Recentmovementofsurficialdepositshasoccurredastheresultofma.sswastingprocessesthathaveproducedscarpsanddownslopemovementofsurficialdebris.Ifispossibletha.tsomefreshscarpsmayhavebeentriggeredorproducedbyseismicshakingandminordisplacementsofbedrockalongjoints.LandslidingintotheSusitnaRiverhasoccurredinthepastandfuturelandslidingappearsprobable.Additionally;theoccurrenceofpoorlyconsolidatedglacialdebris,alluvium,andTertiarysedimentsataltitudesbelowtheproposedreservoirwaterlevels,especiallyattheWatanaDamreservoir,··mayslump··andslideintothereservoirs•Someofthesesedimentscontainpermafrostandmaybeice-richwhichincreasestheprobabilityofslumpingandslidingwhentheyarefthawedbythewaterimpoundedbehindthedams.TheproposedDevilsCanyonandWatanadamsarelocatedinaregionofhighseismicity.Thetectonicframeworkoftheregionisnotwellunderstoodbecauseofthelackoflocalseismicmonitoringstations.Ourpresentknowledgeoftheregionindicatesthathypocentersof·earthquakesintheregionoftheproposeddamsrangesindepthfromlessthan10kmtogreaterthan175km.Weareunableatthistimetoreliablypredictthelocationandmagnitudeoffuture·crustalearthquakesthatcouldeffecttheproposedstructures.756 RECGfMENDATIONSTheconclusionspresentedinthisreportarebasedonareconnaissancestudyoftheproposedDevilsCanyonandWatanadamandreservoirsites,and,therefore,shouldbeconsideredtobepreliminary.Athoroughevaluationofthegeotechnicalproblemsoftheproposeddamandreservoirsiteswillrequiremoredata.Itwillbenecessaryto(1)maptheHealy,Alaska,Quadrangle,atascaleof1:250,000,fromtheTalkteenaMountainsQuadrangletotheDenaliFault,about80km(48miles)northofthedamsites,(2)maptheproposedDevilsCanyonandWatanadamsitesatanappropriatescaletodeterminethebedrockstructureanddistributionofunconsolidatedsedimentsoverlyingthebedrock,(3)mapthereservoirsitesatascaleof1:63,360inorderto(a)establishthetypeanddistributionofunconsolidatedsedimentsandbedrock,(b)locateadditionalpotentiallandslideareas,and(c)determinethenatureanddistributionofpermafrost,(4)initiateaseismicmonitoringprogramofthedamandreservoirareas,(5)continuetheactivefaultstudy,(6)redeterminethealtitudesoftheVerticalAngleBenchmarks,and(7)collectdetaile<idataonthesuspendedloadsandbedloadsoftheSusitnaRiverinordertodetermineifthereservoirfillingratesareacceptable.7S? REFERENCES.CITEDAnon.,1962,EngineeringGeologyoftheVeeCanyonDamsite:BureauofReclamationunpublishedreport37,p.4,Appendices.Anon.,1973a,VerticalControlData:NationalGeodeticSurvey,U.S.DepartmentofCommerce,NationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration,NationalOceanSurvey.Anon.,1974a,AnnualReport1973:DivisionofGeologicandGeophysicalSurvey,DepartmentofNationalReserve,StateofAlaska,59p.Anon.,1974b,WaterResourcesDataforAlaska,Part1,SurfaceWaterRecords,Part2,WaterQualityRecords:U.S.GeologicalSurvey,299p.Beikman,HelenM.,1974,PreliminaryGeologicMapoftheSoutheastQuadrantofAlaska:U.S.GeologicalSurveyMiscellaneousFieldStudiesMap612,2sheets.Csejtey,B~la,Jr.,Nelson,W.H.,Jones,D.L.,Siberling,N.J.,Dean,R.M.,Morris,M.S.,Lamphere,M.A.,Smith,J.G.,andSilberman,M.L.,1978,ReconnaissanceGeologicMapandGeochronology,TalkeetnaMountainsQuadrangle,northernpartofAnchorageQuadrangle,andsouthwestcornerofHealyQuadrangle,Alaska:U.S.GeologicalSurveyOpen-fileReport78-558-A.758 Gedney,LarryandSllapiro,Lewis,1975,StructuralLineaments,Seismicity,and.Geology>oftheTalkeetnaMountainsArea,Alaska:GeophysicalInstitute,University()fAlaska,Fairbanks,Alaska;18p.,5plates.ReportpreparedfortheU.S.ArmyCorpsofEngineers,(N.A.S.A.ContractNAS5-20803,NASAGrantNGL02-001-092andU.S.G.S.Contrac~14-08-0001~14857)~Y~chadoorian,Reuben,1974,Ge()logyoftheDevilsCanyondamsite,Alaska,U.S.GeologicalSurveyOpen-fileReport74-40,17p.Lahr,JohnC.andKachadoorian,Reuben,1975,PreliminarygeologicandseismicevaluationoftheproposedDevilsCanyonandWatanaReservoirareas,SusitnaRiver,Alaska:InformalreporttotheU.S.ArmyCorpsofEngineers,24p.P~w~,TroyL.,1974,QuaternarygeologyofAlaska:U.S.GeologicalSurveyProfessionalPaper835,145p.,3plates.Rappleye,HowardS.,1930,First-orderlevelinginAlaska:U.S.DepartmentofCommerce,CoastandGeodeticSurveySpecialPublication169,p.Smith,ThomasE.,Bundtzan,ThomasK.,andTrible,ThomasC.,1975,Strataboundcopper-goldoccurrence,NorthernTalkeetnaMountains,Alaska:AlaskaDivisionofGeologicandGeophysicalSurveys,MiscellaneousPaper3,7p.Reed,B.L.andNelson,S.W.,1977,GeologicmapoftheTalkeetnaQuadrangle,Alaska:U.S.GeologicalSurveyMiscellaneousFieldStudiesMapMF-870-A.759 760 761 EXHIBIT0-3EarthquakeAssessmentoftheSusitnaProject763 PARTII:PROCEDURESFORASSIGNINGEARTHQUAKEMOTIONS.PARTIV:INTERPRETEDPEAKMOTIONSPARTIII:EARTHQUAKEEVALUATION775777777766765778778t • •CONTENTSINTRODUCTION. • • • • • • • .t • • • • • •AnEarthquakeOriginatingattheDenaliFaultALocalFloatingEarthquakewithFaultBreakagethatdoesnotOccurattheDamsitesAnEarthquakeattheDamsitesPARTI:PARTV:ASSOCIATEDMOTIONS....780InducedSeismicityfromReservoirLoadingWaterWavesfromEarthquakeShakingEarthquake-InducedLandslides. . . . . .TectonicStrainandOverstressedConditionsinRock• t780780781781PARTVI:CONCLUSIONS782PARTVII:REFERENCES.784FIGURES764 PARTI:INTRODUCTION1.Thefollowingsectionsofthisreportwillassessthepossibleoccurrenceofearthquakesatthedamsitesandthemotionsthatarelikelytobeassociatedwithearthquakeactivity.2.TheassessmentsarepreliminarysincetheirlVestigationson<whichtheyarebasedweredoneonareconnaissancelevelandarenecessarilyincomplete.765 PARTII:PROCEDURESFORASSIGNINGEARTHQUAKEMOTIONS3.Earthquakes.areassociatedwithfaults.Tectonismcausesgradualdifferentialmovementsintheearth'scrust.Therockissubjectedtostrainandthebuildupofstresses.Reliefthenmaycomeabruptlyasslippagealongafault.Whenslipoccurs,theadjacentrocksmayre-boundelasticallywithvibratorymotions.Theresultingshakingconsti-tutestheearthquake.4.Earthquakesmaybeassumedtoresultfrommovementalongexis-tingfaultsratherthanfromrockrupturethatproducesnewfaults.Whilenewfaultscannotbeeliminatedentirely,informationextendingthroughgeologicaltimeandtheUbiquitousoccurrenceoffaultssuggeststhatforpracticalpurposesearthquakescanbeconsideredtobeassociatedwithslippagealongexistingfaults.5.Sincefaultsarefoundeverywhere,theengineeringgeologistis'"facedwiththeproblemofdeterminingwhichfaultsareactive,orsubjecttomovement,andwhichareinactive.Offaultsthatareactive,movementcanbeoccurringsteadilyandslowlybycreepandwithoutearthquakes.Theengineeringgeologistmustdeterminewhicharethe"capable"faults,capablemeaningthattheycangenerateearthquakes.6.CorpsofEngineerscriteriaforacapablefault(seeER1110-2-1806of30April1977)areasfollows:a.Movementatornearthegroundsurfaceatleastoncewithinthepast35,000years.b.Macro-seismicity(3.5magnitudeorgreater)instrumentallydeterminedwithrecordsofsufficientprecisiontodemonstrateadirectrelationshipwiththefault.c.Astructuralrelationshiptoacapablefaultsuchthatmove-mentononefaultcouldbereasonablyexpectedtocausemovementontheother.7.Thegeologicalinvestigationoffaultsusesallofthetechni-questhatareavailable:aerialandsatelliteimagery,inspectionfrom766 overflights,lowsunanglephotography,reviewsofregionalandlocalgeology,geophysicalsurveys,detailsofgeomorphologyandrelevantin-formationfromtheseismichistory.8.Foracarefulinvestigationofaconstructionsite,thefieldevidencemaybecheckedfurtherbyborings,geophysicalprofiles,trenches,andstripping.9.Monitoringprogramsforcorroborativeevidencemayincludestraingages,levelingpoints,geodimeterreadings,andmicroearthquakemonitoring.10.Often,itisdesirabletomakeacriticalrestudyofhistoricearthquakeeventsusingtheoriginaldocumentationinnewspapers,diaries,etc.Relocationofepicentersmayresultandtheymayaccordbetterwithgeologicinformationandpossiblywithspecificfaults.Themaximumintensitiesofeventsmaybesubjecttorevisionalso.11.Thedirectionoffuturemovementonanactivefaultispredict-ablesincethepastisaverygoodguidetothefuture.However,second-aryandtertiaryfaultsmayhavemotionsthataredifferentfromthatofamajorfault.Wheresuchdataareavailable,onecanreadilyguardagainsttheeffectsoffaultmovementunderastructuresimplybymovingthestructure.12.Onceafaultisidentifiedas capableofgeneratingearthquakes,anditsdimensionsareascertained,thenextfactortodetermineistheworstearthquakethatthefaultwillproduce.Towardthisend,thereareanumberofrelationshipsandassumptionsthatinvolvethesizeoffault-ing,ordimension·ofmaximummovement,withthemaximumearthquakethatmightreasonablybeexpected.Thedataarebestformajorstrike-slipfaults.Thedispersionofdataismuchgreaterfornormalandthrustfaults.However,thevariantsinfieldconditionscanbeenvelopedwithareasonabledegreeofdependability.RelationshipsbetweenfaultlengthandearthquakemagnitudehavebeensummarizedforCorpsuseinareportbySlemmons(1977).13.Thoughmajoractivefaultsandmajorcentersofearthquakescanbeaccountedfor,smallfaultsmaybemissedinanyinvestigationsothatoftenafloatingearthquakeofappropriatesize.maybeprovidedinordertoaccountforthem.767 14.Theearthquakesthatarethusdeterminedcanbeexpressedintermsofmagnitude*buttheyneedalsotobeexpressedinModifiedMercalli(MM)intensityinordertorelatetohistoricearthquakeeffects.TheMMscaleisshowninTable1.Table1MODIFIEDMERCALLIINTENSITYSCALEOF1931(Abridged)*Magnitude(Richterscale)iscalculatedfromastandardearthquake,onewhichprovidesamaximumtrace8.I!l;plitudeofonemicrometeronaWood-Andersontorsionseismographatadistanceof100kIll.MagnitudeistheloglOoftheratiooftheamplitudeofanyearthquakeatthestandarddistancetothatofthestandardearthquake.Thoughthescaleisopen-ended,thelargestearthquakemaybeatalimitofmag-nitude8.7.Eachfullnumeralstepinthescale(2to3,forexample)representsanenergyincreaseofabout32times.768 VII.Everybodyrunsoutdoors.Damagenegligibleinbuildingsofgooddesignandconstruction;slighttomoderateinwell-builtordinarystructures;considerableinpoorlybuiltorbadlydesignedstructures;somechimneysbroken.Noticedbypersonsdrivingmotorcars.VIII.Damageslightinspeciallydesignedstructures;considerableinordinarysubstantialbuildingswithpartialcollapse;greatinpoorlybuiltstructures.Panelwallsthrownoutofframestructures.Fallofchimneys,factorystacks,columns,monuments,walls.Heavyfurnitureoverturned.Sandandmudejectedinsmallamounts.Changesinwellwater.Disturbedpersonsdrivingmotorcars.IX.Damageconsiderableinspeciallydesignedstructures;well-designedframestructuresthrownoutofplumb;greatinsub-stantialbuildings,withpartialcollapse.Buildingsshifted.offfoundations.Groundcrackedconspicuously.Undergroundpipesbroken.X.Somewell-builtwoodenstructuresdestroyed;mostmasonryandframestructuresdestroyedwithfoundations;groundbadlycracked.Railsbent.Landslidesconsiderablefromriverbanksandsteepslopes.Shiftedsandandmud.Watersplashed(slopped)overbanks.XI.Few,ifany(masonry),structuresremainstanding.Bridgesdestroyed.Broadfissuresinground.Undergroundpipelinescompletelyoutofservice.Earthslumpsandlandslipsinsoftground.Railsbentgreatly.XII.Damagetotal.Waves·seen)ongroundsurfaces.Linesofsightandleveldistorted.Objectsthrownupwardintotheair.15.Thus,·afaultcanbejudgedforitscapacity·togenerateearth-quakesandthemaximumeventitmightproduceexpressedbothinmagnitudeandintensity.Theintensitycan.beattenuatedfromasourcetoasite.16.Predictingthetimeof.themaximumearthquakeisofinterestforotherpurposesbutisofnointerestforthedesignofamajor769 structuresuchasadam.Adamhastobedesignedonthebasisofthemaximumearthquakewithoutregardforitstimeofoccurrenceoritsintervalofrecurrence,sinceamaximumearthquakemaycomeatanytime.Cost-riskbenefits.canbesoughtforappurtenantstructureswhich,iffailed,posenohazardtolife.Fortheselesserstructures,probabilitiesmaybeusedinordertoselectsmallereventsthatwillthenserveasoperationalbasisearthquakes.Arbitrarilylowernumbers,suchasafractionofthemotionsforthemaximumearthquake,canbeequallysuitable.17.Theforegoingconsiderationsbringustothepointwheremotionsmustbeselectedtodefinetheeffectsofearthquakesonadam.Thesemotionsshouldbeconservativesothatthedesignsdevelopedforadamaresafeforanyeventuality.Themotionsareinthefollowingcategories:a.Thosethatcauserelativedisplacementinthefoundationandconsequentlydisplacementsinthedam,andb•.Thosethatinduceunacceptablestrainsinadamorlique-factionifitisanearthstructure.18.Theexaminationofamajordamfortheeffectsofearthquakeshakingrequiresadynamicanalysis.Iftherearepotentialsforstrainbeneaththestructure,earthfillmaybespecifiedastheconstructionmaterial.Foranearthdamitisessentialtoprovideappropriatetimehistoriesofearthquakemotion.Thetimehistoriesareneededbecausethematerialisnonlinearlyelastic.Eachcycleofshakingmayimpartaneffect.onthematerialandtheeffectsarecumulative.Thus,thetimehistoriesmustbeasrealisticaspossibleinsimulatingthemaxi-mumearthquake.19.In.ordertogeneratetimehistories,asynthesismaybemadeofmotionsrecordedduringearthquakesinorderto·developpeakmotions(acceleration,velocity,displacement,durationandpredominantperiod).InCorpsof.Engineerspractice,thetimehistoriesaredevelopedfirstandresponsespectraaremadefromthetimehistories~20.Anylargecollectionofstrongmotionrecordshasatremendousspread·inthevaluesforearthquakemotions.Therearemanycauses:770 differencesinfaultmechanismandfaultshape,rocktypesandconfig-uration,refractionandreflectionofwaves,superpositionandbUildupofwaves,prdiminution,etc.Suchfactorscontributetoaninfinityofdifferencesintheresultingmotions.TheaccelerationsforModifiedMercalliIntensityVrangefrom0.01gto0.61g,aspreadof60times.Meanvalues,insuchcircumstances,havenorealsignificance.21.Thesolutionistoworkwithalargebodyofstrongmotionrecordsandtoprovideenvelopesthatencompassthespreadinthedata.22.Specificparameters,suchasagivenfaulttypeplussomespecifieddistancefromepicenter,tendtorestrictthenumberofrecordsavailabletoonlyaveryfew.Theymayhavelessspread.However,ifthereweremorerecords,evenforthoselimitedconditio~s,thereiseveryreasontobelievetherewouldbemorespread.Itis.bestnottoberestrictivebuttoenvelopewidevarietyofconditions.23.AnextensivestatisticalanalysisofstrongmotiondatafromthewesternUnitedStatesintermsof·intensitywasmadebyT<rifunacandBrady(1975).Theiranalysesincludedacceleration,velocityanddis-placement,andtheydistinguishedverticalandhorizontalcomponentsofmotion.Theyshowedthemeanvalueforeachintensitylevelandthemeanwithonestandarddeviation.Thelatterprovidesameasureofthedispersion.AproblemariseswiththesparsenessofdataforthehigherintensitiesbeginningwithMMVIII.TherearenodataforMMIX,andonerecordforMMX.ThelatteristhePacoimarecordwithitspeakhorizontalaccelerationof1.25g.24.ThesamewesternUnitedStatesdatauniformlyprocessedattheCaliforniaInstituteofTechnologywereusedinstudiesmadeattheWaterwaysExperimentStation(seeKrinitzskyandChang,1977)tofindmeans.forassigningmotionsfordynamicanalysesofdams.ThevalueswereexpressedinMM:intensity.25.TheCITdatawereseparatedbyKrinitzskyandChang(1911)into"nearfield"and"farfield."26.Inthenearfield,complicatedreflectionandrefractionofwavesoccurinthesubsurfacewithresonanceeffectsandalargerange771 inthe.scaleofgroundmotions.Intensegroundmotionsandhigh-frequencyconwonentsof.motionarepresent.Inthefarfieldthewavepatternsareorderly;theoscillationsinwaveformsaremoremutedandmorepredict-able;andfrequenciesarelower.21.Thedistancefromepicentertothelimitsof.thenearfield~andbeginningofthefarfield,.varywiththemagnitudeoftheearthquake,consequentlywiththemaximumepicentralintensity~andwiththeregioninwhichtheearthquakeoccurs.Usually,theintensityinthenearfieldattenuateslinearlyandrapidly;inthefarfield~therateofattenuationforintensitybecomessmaller.28.Limitsofthenearfieldareasfollows:"RichterMagnitudeM5.05.56.06.51.01.5MMMaximumIntensity10VIVIIVIIIIXXXIRadiusofNearFieldKM5152535404529.F'igures1and2showtherelationbetweenMMintensityandaccelerationfornearfieldandfarfield~respectively.Figures3and4showintensityversusvelocity,nearandfarfield~andFigures5and6fordisplacement~nearandfarfield.Themotionsarehorizontal.Verticalcomponentsofmotionaretakentobetwo~thirdsthehorizontal.Thespreadofdataweredividedintoequal10percentincrementsbetween50percent~takenatthemedianline,and100percent,takenalongalinewhichapproximatesthelimitofobserveddata.Thecurvesfortheseincrementsaresuitableforobtainingpeakmotionsatlevelsselectedeitheratthemaximumoratlesserlevelsdeterminedbydecisionsontheseismicriskthatisacceptable.30.Figures1to6alsoshowthemean-plus-onestandarddeviationfortherespectiveintensitylevels.Figure1showsthatmeanpluscrdropsastheintensityincreasesfromMMVIItoVIII.Thedrop-offis772 notfromlessermotionsbutsimplyfromadecreaseinthequantityofdata.Theprojectionofthe10percentlinesattemptstocompensateforthislackofdata.31.Nodistinctionwasmadebetweendatafromsoilandrocksincethevaluesoverlaptoogreatlytoprovideusefulcomparison.TheFigures1to6areintendedtoprovidepeakcomponentsofgroundmotiononbedrockatthesurface.32.Tl'hemean-plus:...avaluesshowthatthedatapointsareconcen-tratedfarbelowthelOa-percentline.Ineffect,the7o-to80-percentbandbracketsanupperboundaryforthegreatbodyofdata.Peakmotionsatthislevelareconservativefornearlyalldesigns.However,ifatasitetherewasacapablefaultseenatthegroundsurface,thenthelOa-percentmotion,orevenahighervalue,mightbeappropriate.33.The/nextelementindevelopingatimehistoryofmotionistheduration.Durationwastakenasthebracketedtimeintervalinwhichtheaccelerationisgreaterthan0.05g.34.Someexaminationsofthedataareappropriate.Figure7showsnearfielddurationsintermsofearthquakemagnitude.Thereisalargedispersionwithdistinctlyhigherpeakvaluesforsoilascomparedtorock.Peakdurationsincreasesteeplywithincreaseofearthquakemag-nitude.ThesamedataareshowninFigure8bylocalMMintensity.Again,soilshowsgreaterpeakdurationsthanrock.However,theslopeofthepeakdurationforrockdoesnotincreaseassteeplywithgreaterintensityasitdoesformagnitude.Thediscrepancyresultsfromincom-pletenessofdataandtheinexactnessthatisinherentinintensityanda_differenceinthecomparabilityofthescales.Figure8providesconserva-tiveupperlimitsfordurationtobeusedwithMMintensitiesinthenearfield.FarfielddurationsareshowninFigure9.35.Theearthquakerecordsselectedforuseorforrescalingmaybeeitheractualstrongmotionrecordsorsyntheticonesdesignedforspeci-fiedgeologicalsettings.Theyshouldbeforfieldconditionsthatareanalogoustothoseforthesiteunderstudy.Theyshouldbeforcom-parabletypesoffaults,comparablegeology(whethercrystallinerocks,773 sedimentarybasin;etc.),andsimilardistances..from.causativefaults.Recordsshouldbeselectedalsowithpredominantperiodsthatmaycor-respondtoperiodsofengineeringworksthatarebeingevaluated.36.Thetimehistoriesdevelopedfromrescalingearthquakerecordsarepreferableforsuchstructuresasearthdamssincethestructuresarenonlinearlyelasticandactualearthquakerecordsarebothmorerealisticandhavefewermotionsthanthesyntheticones.Forconcreteportionsofastructure,thenecessaryresponsespectracanbemadefromthetimehistoryoritcanbeobtainedindependentlyfollowingtheguide-lin~softheNuclearRegulatoryCommission.37.Thescaling·forlargemotions(intheregionof1g)presentsaproblembecausethereisonlyonerecord(Pacoima,SanFernandoearth-quakeof1911)andtherescalingoflesserrecordstothislevelmayproduceunrealisticmotions.Insteadofstraightscaling,high-frequencymotionsmaybeaddedtolowerearthquakesincombinationwithaprocessofscaling.Multiplerecordsshouldbeexamined.Strongmotionrecordsshouldbeselectedthatrequireaslittlerescalingaspossible.Chang(1978)providedafirststeptowardcatalogingearthquakesinamannerthatwillfacilitatetheirselectionforscaling.Ifarecordhas.tobescaledasmuchas4x,therecordshouldbediscarded.38.Thespectralcompositionandpredominantperiodofarecordissitedependent(whethersoilorrock)andisdependentalsoondistancefromsource.Hereagainjudgmentsmustbemadenotonafewrecordsbutbyenvelopesofextensivecollectionsofdata.Someguidanceispro-videdincompilationsbyChangandKrinitzsky'(1977).774 PARTIII:EARTHQUAKEEVALUATION39.AgeologicalreconnaissanceofthegeneralareainwhichtheDevilsCanyonaridWatanadamsitesarelocatedwasperformedforthisstudybyDrs.ReubenKachadoorianandHenryJ.MooreoftheU.s.GeologicalSurvey.Theirstudyentitled"PreliminaryReportoftheRecentGeologyoftheProposedDevilsCanyonandWatanaDamsites,SusitnaRiver,Alaska,"isincludedinthepresentoverallreport.40.Drs.KachadoorianandMoorewerechargedprimarilywiththetaskofinvestigatingtheareaforthepresenceofabsenceofactivefaults.Inaddition,observationsweremadeontheseismicityoftheareaandonthepossibilitiesoflandslidesi.ntothepotentiallakes.41.PriortotheworkdonebyDrs.KachadoorianandMoore,astudyhasbeenmadefortheCorpsofEngineersbyGedneyandShapiro(1975)oflineationsinterpretableforthisareafromLandsatandSlarimagery.Thelineationswerepresentedalongwiththeseismichistoryandthegeneralgeology.42.GedneyandShapiroshowalargenumberoflineationsincludingonesthattrendalongtheSusitnaValleyandpassthroughtheDevilsCanyonandWatanadamsites.Lineationsmaybecausedbyfaultsbuttheymaybecausedalsobyprocessesthathavenorelationtotectonism.Innocasecanalineationbeacceptedasafaultunlessconfirmationisfoundonthegroundbyaprocessthatiscalled"ground·truthing~"ThustheworkbyKachadoorianandMoorewasanimportantstepinva1i-datingtheearlierwork.Thejudgmentsconcerningfaultsshpu1dbethoseofthelatterwork.43.KachadoorianandMoorereportagroupof16faults.Forthemostpart,thesefaultsareidentifiedbystratigraphicevidence.There775 wasnosurfaceevidenceofrecentmov~entalonganyofthesefaults;consequently,thefaultsweretentativelyJudgedtobeinactive.How-ever,confirmationofthisjudgmentwillrequiremoredetailedfieldwork.ThenearestknownactivefualtistheDenalifault,80kmaway.withthecapacitytoproducemagnitufe8.0earthquakes.44.GedneyandShapirogen~~llyfoundnorelationbetweenseismiceventsintheregionandfaults.However,fortheSusitnafault(FaultNo.8ofKachadoorian.andMoore),GedneyandShapiroassociatedtwoearthquakesof1October1972and5February1974(magnitudes4.7and5.0respectively).GedneyandShapiroreportednoassociatedbreakagealongtheSusitnafaultbuttheseeventsgavesuitablefaultplanesolutionsindicatingright-lateraloffset.KachadoorianandMoorequestionthereliabilityofassociatingtheseearthquakeswiththemappedfault.KachadoorianandMoorefoundnorelationbetweenseismicityandmappedfaults,howevertheypointoutthataclosergridofseismometersmayuncoversuchrelationships.45.Insummary:a.Nofaultsofimportantregionalextentwerefoundtobepresentatthedamsites.b.Majorfaultsintheregionwerereconnoiteredandnoevi-dencewasfoundofrecentmovement.c.Theregionisoneofrelativelyhighseismicity,however,noassociationwasestablishedbetweenseismiceventsandspecificfaults.d.ThenearestpositivecapabilityforanearthquakeisalongtheDenalifaault.approximately80kmdistant,~hereamaximummagnitudeof8.0canbeexpected.e.ExceptfortheconclusionsconcerningtheDenalifault,theworkdonesofarispreliminary.Moreworkisneeded.776 PARTIV:INTERPRETEDPEAKMOTIONS46.Onthebasisofthepresentincompletegeologicalandseismo-logicalinformation,earthquakemotionsatthedamsitesmustbepostu-latedbymakingcertainconservative·assumptions.47.Potentialearthquakesareasfollows:a.AnearthquakeoriginatingattheDenalifault.Themaxi-mummagnitudeis8.0inaccordancewithassumptionsmadebytheU.S.GeologicalSurveyintheirTrans-AlaskaPipelineStudy(seePage,etat,1972).Theearthquakeisa.ttenuated80kmtotheDevilsCanyonandWatanadamsiteS.UsingtheKrinitzsky-Chang(1977)attenuationforwesternUnitedStates,theeventwillproduceaMMintensityofIXatthesesites.Themotionsarefarfield.Itisconservativetobasethemotionsonthe70percentspreadlevelofthechartsofFigures2,4,and6sincethatlevelencompassesover95percentofthedatainthevelocities(seeFigure4).ThedurationistakenforrockfromFigure9.Thecorrespondingpeakmotionsareacceleration,velocity,displacement,anddurationaretabulatedinTable2.TABLE2PEAKEARTHQUAKEMOTIONSATDEVILSCANYONANDWATANADAMSITESPeakMotions(hor.*)onBedrockatSurfaceSiteEarthquakeIntensityAccel.Vel.Displ.DurationSourceMagnitudeFieldMMgern/secemsecDenalifault8.0FarIX0.28402210Localfloatingevent7.0NearX0.6868.3012*Verticalmotionmaybetakenastwo-thirdsofhorizontal.777 b.Alocal~loatingearthquakewith£aultbreakagethatdoesnotoccuratthedamsites.Theinconclusivenatureofthegeologic-seismologicstudiesrequires.thatafloating~arthquake.beassigned.Theearthquakemayoccuranywhereinthegeneralvicinitiesofthedam-sitesbutnotimmediatelyunderthedamsthemselves.Theeliminationofanearthquakebeneaththedamsisbasedontheworko£KachadoorianandMooreforthisstudyinwhichtheyidentifynoappropriatefaults.Themagnitudeofthefloatingearthquakeis7.0.ThismagnitudeisinaccordancewiththeearthquakeusedforthisareaintheTrans-AlaskaPipelineStudyofPage,etal(1972).~The,magnitudeaccordssatisfac-torilywiththepossiblefaultlengthspresentedbyKachadoorianandMoore,whichareontheorderofahundredormorekm.Suchfaultscorrespondtomagnitude7earthquakesaccordingtoavailableworldwide.datapresentedbySlemmons(1977)inhisFigure27.Sincethenearfieldforanearthquakeofthissizeextends40km.fromthesource,andKachadoorianandMoorehavelocatedmajorfaulttrendswithin3to15kmofthedams,themotionsatthedamsmustbetakenasnearfield.Itisconservativetousethe70-percentspreadlinesofthemoitonsinFigures1,3,and5sincethatlevelenvelopesall.butafew.extremevalues.Theduration.forbedrockatthesurfaceistakenfromFigure8.ThepeakmotionsaretabulatedinTable2.c.Anearthquakeatthedamsites.Onthe.basisofpresentinformation,anearthquakefromamajorfaultruptureatthedamsiteisnotexpectedtooccur.However,itisunderstoodthatpresentinforma-tionmaybesubject.<torevision.whenfurtherstudiesaremade778 48.ThemotionsinTable20fthisreportweredevelopedsomewhatdifferentlyfromthoseoftheUSGSTrans-AlaskaPipelineStudy(Page,etaI,1972).TheflogtingearthquakeforthenearfieldbutnotatthesitehasnoequivalentintheUSGSanalysis.TheUSGSvaluesareforearth-'quakesthatoccuratasite.Also,theUSGSpeakswerereducedfromwhattheymightpe.bya,filtering.that.theyappliedtothePac.oimarecordofthe1971SanFernandoearthquake.Theirobjectivewastoprovidemotionsforaquasi-staticanalysisofthepipelineinwhichtheinput"wasres.trictedtoarange,of2to8Hz.Their.resultingmagnitude7.atasitehasvaIu~sthatarehigherthanours(1.05vsO.68g)inacceleration,higherinvelocity(120vs68em/sec)andhigherindisplacement(55vs45cm).Thedurationsalsoaregreatlydifferent.TheUSGSdurationis25secagainst12secforours.Thedifferenceisthattheirdurationincludessoilswhereasoursisforbedrockalone.49.Predominantperiodandrecordsforrescalingarenotrecommendedatthispointsincespecificationoftypesoffaultinganddistancefromfaultingareyettobemade.50.Theoperatingbasisearthquake,whichislesserearthquakethantbattakenforthedesignofthedam,maybetestedwithpeakmotionsthatbeginathalfthoseofthemaximumearthquakes.779 PARTV:ASSOCIATEDMOTIONS51.Reservoirloadinghasinsomecasesinducedsignificantearth-quakesandearthquakeshavetrigger~dlandslidesandcausedwaterwavesorseiches.Also,inregionsoftectonismtheremaybeproplemsduringexcavationfromoverstressedconditionsinrock.Inducedseismicityfromreservoirloading52.Afewlargereservoirsintheworldhave>inducedappreciableearthquakes.Simpson(1976)hasprovidedasummaryandcriticalreview.Thereservoirisatriggeringagent.Itdoesnotcauseearthquakesgreaterthantheonesthatmaybeexpectedfromthenormaltectonism.Themaximumearthquakeswillbetheonesusedindesign.Aninduced..,earthquake,ifsuchshouldoccur,wouldnotbegreaterthoughitmayoccuratadifferenttime.Further,theworldwideexperience,accordingtoSimpson(1976),suggeststhatinducedeffectsmaybehighestinregionsoflowtomodera.tenaturalseismicity.Inareasofhighlevelsofnaturalseismicity.,as;inAlaska,thestresschangesinducedbythereservoiraresmallcomparedtonaturalvariations.Thus,inducedseismicityshouldnotaddanyinputtodesign.Nonetheless,observationsrelatingtoinducedseismicitymadebeforeandafterreservoirfillingareappro-priateandwillbevaluableonaresearchlevel.Waterwavesfromearthquakeshaking53.Waterwavesproducedbyearthquakeshaking,undercertaincir-cumstances,maybeafactorthoughhardlycomparabletotheeffectsoflargelandslidesandordinarilynotmoreseverethanwindeffects.Theeffectsaredependentonthespectralcompositionofthehorizontalgroundmotions,theshapeandsizeofthereservoir,andthedurationofshaking.Ifaresonanceisdevelopedtheremaybesignificantresul-tingwaveamplitudes.LeeandHwang(1977),inassessingthisproblem,suggestthatwaveheightsofhalftheamplitudeofhorizontalgroundmotionsarepossiblebuttheydonotassessresonance.Inpr~ctice,protectionagainsttheeffectsoflandslideswillprobablymorethanadequatelyprovideprotectionagainstwaterwavesaswell.780 B~arthquake-inducedlandslides54.Landslidesareapronouncedfeatureatthesitesofmajorearthquakes.KachadoorianandMoorehavenotedappreciablelandslidesintheSusitnaValley.These,andothersthatmaybejudgedtobepresentaspotentialhazards,shouldbeevaluated.Theworstknownpotentialslidescanbemonitoredandremedialmeasurescanbespecified,includingtheremovalofthepotentialslidematerial.55.Theproblemwhendealingwithamajorearthquakeisthatonecannotbesurethatslidesthatmightbegenerated'havebeenanticipated.Givensufficienttopographicreliefandlargemassesoflooseorfrac-turedmaterial,oneshouldtakeintoaccountmajorslidesforwhichnopreventioncanbespecified.Developmentsalongthebordersofthereservoir,thefreeboardofthedam,etc.,shouldbeplannedsothatpossibledisastersareavoided.56.Studiesoftheeffectsoflandslidesintoreservoirsmaybeeithertheoretical,usinganumericalmodel(seeRaneyandButler,1975),ortheymaybeempirical.Thelatterisperhapsthemostpracticalapproach.Theyinvolveusingundistortedhydraulicmodels(cfDavidsonandWhalin,1974).Forbothmethods,theslidegeometry,volume~velo-cityandreservoirconfigurationareessentials.Fieldinvestigationswhereactuallandslideshaveoccurredmayaidindevelopingestimatesofvelocities(seeBanksandStrohm,1974).Theprocedureswillproduceassessmentsofwaveheightsandwaverunups.Tectonicstrainandoverstressedconditionsinrock57.Atotallyunknownsetofconditionsarethosethatrelatetotectonicstrainandresultingpossibleoverstressingintherock.Re-sidualstressesfromthemovementsofactivefaultscanaffectthemakingofexcavationsandthestabilityofthestructure.Atpresenttherearenodata.Itisanticipatedthatfieldmeasurementsrelatingtostressesandthebuildupofstrainwillbemadeaspartofanycontinuinginvestigations.781 PARTVI:CONCLUSIONS58.Thegeological~seismologicalinvestigationstodateweremadeonreconnaissancelevels.Th~DevilsCanyonandWatanadamsitesareinaregionofhighseismicityand.majorfa,ults.However,nomove-mentsWerefoundonthefaultsthatmightbeindicativeofearthquakes.Also,noseismicactivitywasidentifiedasassociatedwiththesefaults,thoughthedatasuffersfrominexactnessintheaccuracyoflocations.Noactivefaultswerefoundatthedamsites.ActivefaultsofappreciablelengtharerequirediflargeearthquakesaretobegeneratedincloseIproximityofthe"proposedstructures.59.Theareawasprovidedwithafloatingearthquakeofmagnitude7placedatashortdistancefromthedamsites.Themagnitude7isinconformitywithgeneralfaultlengthsinthisareaandwithwor~dwideexperiencesbetween·suchfaultsandresultingearthquakes.However,furtherfieldstudieswillbemadetodetermineconclusivelywhetherornottherearefaultsclosertothesiteswithpossiblemoreseveremotions.Anearthquakeofmagnitude8fromtheDenalifaultatadistanceof80kmwasevaluatedbyattenuatingtheeventtothedamsites."60.PeakmotionswereassignedfortheearthquakesfollowingthepracticesoftheCorpsofEngineers.Themagnitude7earthquakenearthedamsiteshasmotionsthatare:acceleration0.68g,velocity68cm/sec,displacement30cm,andduration12sec.AnearthquakeattheDenalifaultattenuatedtothesitesprovidesmotionsof0.28g,40cm/sec,22cm,and10sec.61.Acloserspecificationofwhichsetsofpeakmotionstoapplyandtheappropriatetimehistorieswillawaitfurtherfieldstudies.782 62.Possibleinducedseismicityfromreservoirloadingisnotafactorneedingadditionaldesignbutisaccountedforintheexistingmotions.However,waterwavesfrom.possibleearthquake-triggeredland-slide:o;aridpossibleoverstressedconditionsinrockposeproblemsforwhichatpresentthereisapaucityofdataandaneedforfurtherevaluation.783 PARTVII;REFERENCES1.Hanks,DonC.andWilliamE,Strohm(1974),CalculationsofRock-slideVelocities.AdvancesinRockMechanics,NationalAcademyof:jciences,Washington,D.C.,pp839-841,2.CaliforniaInstituteofTechnology,EarthquakeEngineeringResearchLaboratory(19'(1-1915),StrongMotionEarthquakeAccelerograms;CorrectedAccelerogramsandIntegratedGroundVelocitiesandDis-placements,Vol2,PartsA-N,Pasadena,Californi~.3.Chang,FrankK.(1918),CatalogueofStrongMotionEarthquakeRecords,Vol1,WesternUnitedStates,1933-1911,State-of~the-ArtforAssess-ingEarthquakeHazardsintheUnitedStates,MPS-13-1,Report9,WaterwaysExperimentStation,Vicksburg,Mississippi,28ppand2appen.11.Chang,FrankK.andE.L.Krinitzsky(1911),Duration,SpectralContentandPredominantPeriodofStrongMotionEarthquakeRecordsfromWesternUnitedStates,State-of-the-ArtforAssessingEarth-quakeHazardsintheUnitedStates,MPS-13-1,Report8,WaterwaysExperimentStation,Vicksburg,Mississippi,58ppand2appen.5.Davidson,D.DonaldandRobertW.Whalin(1914),PotentialLandslide-GeneratedWaterWaves,LibbyDamandLakeKoocanusa,Montana.TRH-14-15,WaterwaysExperimentStation,Vicksburg,Mississippi,33pp.6.Gedney,LarryandLewisShapiro(1915),StructuralLineaments,Seismicity,andGeologyoftheTalkeetnaMountainsArea,Alaska,GeophysicalInstitute,UniversityofAlaska,Fairbanks,Alaska,18ppand5plates.1.Krinitzsky,E.L.andFrankK.Chang(1917),SpecifyingPeakMotionsforDesignEarthquakes,State-of-the-ArtforAssessingEarthquakeHazardsintheUnitedStates,MPS-13-1,Report1,WaterwaysExperi-mentStation,Vicksburg,Mississippi,34pp.B.Lee,Y.KeenandLi-SanHwang(1911),WavesGeneratedbyHorizontalOscillationsinBays.Journ.Waterways,Port,CoastalandOceanDiv.,ASCE,Vol103,No.ww4,pp411-422.9.Page,RobertA.,DavidM.Boore,WilliamB.Joyner,andHenryW.Coulter(1912),GroundMotionValuesforUseintheSeismicDesignoftheTrans-AlaskaPipelineSystem,U.S.GeologicalSurvey,Circular612,23pp.10.Raney,DonaldC."andH.LeeButler(1915),ANumericalModelforPredictingtheEffectsofLandslide-GeneratedWaterWaves.TRH-15-1,WaterwaysExperimentStation,Vicksburg,Mississippi,22pp.784 11.Simpson,DavidW.(1976),SeismicityChangesAssociatedwithReservoirLoading,Elsevier,EngineeringGeology,10:123-150.12.Glemmons,DavidB.(1977),FaultsandEarthquakeMagnitude,State-of-the-ArtforAssessingEarthquakeHazardsintheUnitedStates,Reportc6,WaterwaysExperimentStation,Vicksburg,Mississippi,129ppplusAppendix,37pp.13.Trifunac,M.D.andA.G.Brady(1975),OntheCorrelationofSeismicIntensityScaleswiththePeaksofRecordedStrongGroundMotion,B.Seism.Soc.Am.,Vol65,No.1,pp139-162.785 f\)o o.co p CD ACCELERATION,9 000. .. ()'I 0>....., p.,.o w p f\) o . '-, ..... "'-",~0----1 *-'"I ~","'"~~~ _'\~~'"',,'."-~~+----l---l \'\,"'-"<fTI +~~~t...•~,r-."'%-.>-~q "-\~'\~',,"O~O _____A \...-A~I~""'-,~<C''P ........'\--'"\'\."";t..~O \'""\...",a"'9' A_I "",,~ ,-I \"-'b".....~o 'Q \~~.~'-~o~'-%~% •.0 '\.~'._,-"\I\~\\""'~',-,'""'" \0 \'\."".............\,'\,'\...'\"-...J o ~ ~ ~ M s 1<1 ~ ~ ~ ~ ......co 0- Figure 1.Acceleration versus MM Intensity in the Near Field.Percentages are ten percent increments in the spread between the mean (50%)and the limit of observed data (100%), 0.4 I I rlAEAN +<T MEAN m 0.3 z...I I FAR FIELD0 ~0::0.2w ..J W U 'l U <XI -<'l 0.1 0'<.I y ....'I I , m nz:"JZ:Jl! MM JZII :ElI IX: Figure 2.Acceleration versus MM Intensity in the Far Field. Percentages are ten percent Jncrements in the spread between the mean (50%)and the limit of observed data (100%). /,)l/"6r"jEAN+CT;1/MEAN/IIt'/NEARFIELD./1I//////I/,.'~o~~//o/~~qo////1'~,V~~IV/<f/~/~,/V6\.0V,rlYV /V'1<;:79J'?J//o,////ti</VOd\C~,/I//E)~V~//V7dfov..../I,~/A~/'~-/1/:(~V~V/V"'")//I~%'~VF~~~/0•~01t1201101009080UI.Ll70~~U>--"60t-Uo...JlJ.I50>40302010om1ZIEMMIXxFigure3.Velocityv.ersusMMIntensityintheNearField.Percentagesaretenpercentincrementsinthespreadbetweenthemean(50%)andthelimitofobserveddata(100%).788 60 I I J;~EAN +0- MEAN 50 I I I FAR FIELD I I Iu40 w (/) "~u >."30 t--U ......9co 0()I.IJ >20 lol--l A ~//:X :/:Ar'1 I "r------1 0 1 /1///y,/'!'1 I I 1 I m :rsz::v 3ZI EI ElI IX: Figure 4.Velocity versus MM Intensity in the Far Field. Percentages are ten percent increments in the spread between the mean (50%)and the limit of observed data (100%). xJX'E:lI3ZII MM yr:sz:mO'!I ..3ZI 50 I I bMEAN to- MEAN 40 I I I ~NEAR FIELDu 1-'" Z 30w ::E I.LJ U-<...J D..20 'I (/) ..g -0 0 10 1 I 1 ,/' Figure 5.Displacement v~rsus MM Intensity in the Near Fi~ld. P~rcentages are ten percent increments in the spread oetweenthe mean (50%)and the limit of observed data (100%). 40.I I i I I I I i yISZ:m 0'I r .....,:::r=I J " JZI JllI 3ZIII JX MM T MEAN +CJoMEAN .~30\1 FAR'FIELO I I I ~ f-O\ Z lLJ ~lLJ 20 I I I I. () c( ...Ja. (/)o 101 I ......-r -~......i~:::;>'"Jl ~- Figure 6.Displacement versus MM Intensity in the Far Field. Percentages are ten percent increments in the spread between the mean (50%)and the limit of observed data (100%). 10080//60O~/s~O~~<::)"«J0't-:/40«<v<t-<t-0>''0«~~<::)'/30NEARFIELD«JoYrv<t-7•8'0««,/200/0~."o/'01.f:.tJ.II'e)ci10/....1)")It)8/1l~0~/e,.0"'tu6/0u-<5/~u/I&J40II)i§J...Z300ij:-<It:::>0l1li020AAAA1.00.80".LEGENDINSTRSITE0.6COMPONENTCONDITIONl1li0.50HORIZONTALSOFT•eVERTICAL0.40AHORIZONTAL•VERTICALINTERMEDlfI.TE0.3A0HORIZONTALAl1liVERTICALHARDROCK0.2""'-----"-----'---"-----'---"-----'---"-----'-----\-------'4.55.05.58.06.57.07.58.08.5RICHTERMAGNITUDE3Figure7.DurationversusRichterMagnitudeintheNearField.792 LEGEND"0INSTRSITECOMPONENTCONDITION0HORIZONTALSOFTi•VERTICALAHORIZONTALINTERMEDIATEAVERTICAL0HORIZONTALHARDROCKIIIVERTICALIINEARFIELD0.37930.2O.I'--_.....I-__""--_.....L__..L-_---1__-I.-_---I__-l-_---IL..-_-l-__I--_....I0.8<4O,.....,.,...,...-,...,...,...-,......---r".,...,...-,..,..__...,.__--r-.,...,......,.---r-__~--.,....--~-_.,6Figure8.DurationversusMMIntensityintheNearField.0.40.'0.5820zoi=«~1.0..........;......;......;......;...---------------------------...,o30.....0'4II)ooAl3V~'... 30£~PPER~OUNDDURATION20FORSOIL_______.-0----FARFIELD~00810--0--8UPPERBOUND1lJ:>DURATION6FORHARDROCKb.05b.4,...•tnon00dt0311\0F0•0i<2.....00•....0Cf)b.•....•zb.0•i=1.0<a:0::>Q0.800.6eLEGENDo.~INSTRSITECOMPONENTCONDITION0.40HORIZONTAL•VERTICALSOFT0.3b.HORIZONTAl:AVERTICALINTERMEDIATE0.20HORIZONTALHARDROCK..VERTICAL0AJln::m:smIMMINTENSITYIII0.1.....-......._-~----'-...;...........----li»---O---~_......._-.-_-'----7Figurey.DurationversusMMIntensityintheFarField.794 EXHIBITD-4ProcedureforEstimatingBoreholeSpacingandThawWaterPumpingRequirementsforArtificiallyThawingtheBedrockPermafrostattheWatanaDamsite.7.95 IntroductionTheprocedureoutlinedinthisnoteforestimatingthetimetoartificiallythawpermafrostbedrockassumesthatwaterwillbepumpedintoapatternofboreholesdrilledtothebottomofthepermafrostzone.Thewaterwouldflowdownafeedpipetothebottomofthebore-holeandbackuptheannulusbetweentheoutsideofthefeedpipeandthewalloftheborehole.Duringtheupwardflow,heatfromthewaterwouldflowradiallythroughtheboreholewalltomelttheexistingiceandraisethetemperatureofthesurroundingrock.Duringthefirststageofthisthawingprocessaseriesofessentiallyverticalparallelthawedcylinderswouldbeformed,thediameterofwhichwouldgrowwithtimeuntilthesurfaceofadjacentcylinderstouched.Upontouchingaflutedwallwouldexistwhichthen.willthickenasadditionalheatissuppliedbythethaw-waterin.theboreholesuntileitherthedesiredwallthicknessisattainedorathermalequilibriumisestablished.Oncethedesiredwallthicknessisreached,therateofthaw-waterflow(i.e.,pumping)canbereducedtoestablishthermalequilibrium.Toavoidfreezingbackthebed-rockitmaybenecessarytocontinu~pumpingwateruntilgroutingisinitiatedoruntilitisunnecessarytomaintainthewallinathawedcondition.Ifthepermafrostisat32°FattheWatanadamsite,itprobablywouldnotbenecessarytousemaintenancepumpingsincefreeze-baokwouldbequiteslow.Thepurposeofthisnoteistofurnishproceduresforestablishingadrillingpattern;estimatingthetimetothawa20ft.widezoneofrock796 alongthealignmentoftheWatanaDam;andestimatingthepumpingrequirementsforthethawingoperation.AssumptionsThegraphsusedinthisprocedurelWeredevelopedusingthethermalomputatf,onalmethodsoutlinedinthepaper,"Thermal.andRheologicalomputationsforArtificiallyFrozenGroundConstruction,"whichisttachedasAppendixB.TheassumedrockpropertiesandthermalconditionsrelistedinAppendixA.Graphsinfigures1and2weredevelopedfor~·••inchdiameterboreholes.Useoflargerdiameterboreholeswouldreducea3inchdiameterboreholewillreducethethawtimelessthan10%).Itshouldbeemphasizedthatthisprocedureassumesauniformdistributioniceinthebedrock;withanoverallicesaturatedporosityofl~%andthatisquiteprobablethat··someoftherockwillcontainmuchlargervolumesofAtlocationswherelargevolumesoficedoexist,thethawingwouldbeslowerthanpredictedbyFigure1.Moreaccuratepredictionsofthecanbemadewhendetailsoftheamountandlocationoftheice-aredetermined.The·temperatureofthepermafrostbedrockatedamsitehasnotbeenestablishedprecisely•Inthisnote,.bedrockperature·isassumedtobe320Fwithallwaterfrozen.Tocontrolthethawingprocessduringconstruction,itisessentialtothebedrocktemperatureatseverallocationsbothhorizontallyandrtically.Goodtemperatureandpumpingrecordswillassistinilnprovingethawingoperationsastheworkprogressesandwillprovidedataforfiningtheprocedureforpredictingsubsequentthawingtimesandpumping797 requirements.Procedure(1)FromthecurvesonFigure1chooseaboreholearrangement(i.e.,singlerowortworowsofboreholes)andspacing.Thechoicewouldbebasedonthetimeavailableforthawing,thetemperatureoftheavailablethaw-waterandtheeconomictrade-offsbetweenadditionalholesvsheatingthewaterandpumpingwater.(2)Afterselectingtheboreholespacing,enterthegraphonFigure2usingtheboreholespacingandthaw;-waiertemperaturechosenin(1)toobtainatimeatwhichthethawingcylinderswilljusttoucheachother.Thistime(tr)isgivenindaysontheabscissa.(3)Usin.g(tr)·from(2hentertheabscissa<ofthegraphonFigure3andobtainanestimateofthenumberofgallonsperminute(GPM)thatmustbesuppliedtoeachboreholeforthethaw...watertemperatureselected.Notethatthisisthethaw-waterflowrequiredwhenthethawedcylindersjusttouch.Thisismore.thanthatrequiredtocontinuethawinguntilt,ewallobtainsitsfull·widthbut..itis.acons.ervativeaveragevalueto.useinestimating.Themaximumflowrateisrequiredatthestartofpumping.TheoreticallyitisinfinitebutinpracticeitisclosetothevaluesshownattimezeroonFigure3.Therefore,afterthefirstfewdaysofpumping,thepumpingcapacitycanbereduced,e.g.,oneormoreofthepumpscanbeusedsomewhereelse.Thecurvesonthisgrapharebasedonthetemperaturegradientortemperaturelossshownonthegraph.rfsufficient798 notsuppliedtotheboreholes,thetemperaturegradientwillrisetimer~quiredtothawwillincrease.(4)Aftertherateofflowforeachboreholeisestimated,theofthethaw-waterflowinthefeedpipesandtheannulusbetweenofthefeedpipeandtheboreholewallshouldbecomputedtotermineifeither'thevelocityorpressuredropisexcessive.(5)Thetotalrateofflowfordeterminingthesizeandnumberofpsisdeterminedbysummingupthenumberofboreholesthatareusedrthawingatonetime.thatifwaterisartificiallyheated,therewillbeargeenergylossiftheoverflowfromtheboreholeisnotcapturedandwaterinalocationwherethesuncanwarmitisonewaytothaw-watertemperaturesthanwouldbeobtainedbytakingwaterdirectly799 .....i' 1 i .~~~:1_~L .~:~::~~:~·L. Thaw Water Temp. ¥;'I I ~·:;:T.:..·:·!:L::f·~:L::f·:l~.:t:.cL"f::::::.' :.,....'.I ..I ·"'--"1-:·-'·~:'·'Th-l-"i:.-:"''':Sii'fle Row '0 1000 F....g.,.........'.:. :..,::.I·T R'"I f ~.i.500 F-=-~;:;::.-J~,~,,",:.:i::;~~r-~T_:.:.-,.....\Jllo.,ows t.--f-.~ur ;'..:-- :~NOTE:For borehole spacing in::4 0.' e;zcess of 10 ft,predicted times ,:0F: may be considerably shorter than ..-.',:":~:--: actual -particularly for the .,.,+........,.....,.,1--'----1 -t..--'--:-..-+.............-+:----., higher temperature thaw water.;c .. .......__........__L_.r-~Aj ;_-,-. ::/""1:_",.!...i'"'j :...-:-.,.r . ._l_....:....~_+.....,.+..--...~~~I-·/~:t ..r~.:I:;:--.k ...~.:.:...:....;....I .i.:.({:..:.._.L.:~L ft.'::.......1_ I;i;·:.,:"/Vj -1_..... I j:T::i':::J'::T:::",,.;/-i.1 ..........o !....::..·r......~:·".'_.:_'..(').--1 I _,::'.-.".j I .....",..,......... I'.'1";·1 ....(·;......'...p _....:~Eh:~i·/Ot-.:...'/.: ,:,,:.:.::!~r).::..:.I ....!co.'."·_...........:;..:i-O .,:..~/ .i,..i,I :'1:,"1- ,tC':',/~:''"~"..':;,'::~'I ?-,·PB:·.-k:;.il '/,::;:f BEDROCK PROPERTIES USED 1 -T",.:.I ::::.r::.':.':1:;::',:1 UNIFORl1 POROSITY:1 5%I ',,I I,/':;.'.:I ' ,".".,..,',~•0''''T--1:''',?:'--1,'-rv ::~I/.·':'=-~UlUFORl1 GROUND TEHP:32°F : .-I:.:.:I!~.i.·,/i.·II,:':·:::.:i:'.:!!i··d fu~~R8~~M~6~~¥~B~1AL CONDUCTIVITY 1.6 BTU/hr Ft OF ....:.t::--:r·,....'T:0 :i=:O"l-:-:±.·:g::',;......:...:....L ...,..........;!SPECIFIC GRAVITY 2.68 !~..:'1,j -,.:~I .:::'''::..:If.i :1 ....I ..::./'..i:·I ...(,..:;:::..-...·~..·i ..::....';;..·j\1I.+·1 j--f!:1.·.·I"r~41.:10 0Pi·J!':J:~REi ROJ DlJii~kl"'i:l;ji·~n~f.:::::d':±:::j'-t-:·t....t'f.:..4 ..-! 20 I: -...:.---<!)z u()()~00 (f)10w ...Ja I w 0.::am 0 '::j'--:. .:...L '!,-"Ft.,of ....-._-~--...-.__...._;-.=......"-.......,....,.......-,;.-.- WATANA DAM SITE FOUNDATION THAWING BOREHOLE SPAC ING VS TUlE FOR RADIAL THAWINC FROM A SINGLE BOREHOT.:._1 __..,~ ..J 0' 30 ,!!!\.._...,............"""'".~: .:.'i"100 OF Thaw Water ..Temp . .".'.............·1·...;:.....,......;;...,:I :::''t:::.0E._---:..,....l._···-T-·..'·--·--..-....-- .".,..:!.......',.......''''''-'i -'.....'! .._...-.•_•._-I !.40 of ~ .....;.:._.j.,r .~_:,;.::"':: ,..-.-'::'. (9 20 !......,..-'-.:: Z .':""_~. -,..,.....,i"C';Ii ;I~"""-:-:- <.)"'--",.......-..,. ~. I ia"',.....:., (j)..........,,.:'L.o •I....;',~i'!".':;+:/I '·.!!I~~!!! :r:;...1 ,?···t~'T W I0 .......,.-+-1,....'-'-:-~T---'" 0::::?,'''-·c·-·,... o ..i~t;·en -'6--- QOo... FIGURE 2 O.~I·~~~~~~~'r!b;:~]11~·i···2·0!.:-~~J~.~r :{1.:~:I··i3b .11 I 140.';i::...'.I:·-I .i i'......' I ..,. -t~·1M r Days'}WATANA DAM SITE .;::\:;.:';"".j '1'~;.....1 -,FOUNDATION THAWING::.;.;~:;.,:'...--:'~~'T:':':';~':_--+..1....1 THAW WATER FLOW RATE VS TIME:'.I:,::::'"'·1:··..·"I'I ,,:,.! .I'....;~~i::'<:1 ..i.i;:·,'·'!i::'-:-'i.I ;;FOR THAWING CYLINDRICAL SURFACES TO TOI ::::::.:.,,::.I·.l:.....I ..1····1 .,.;..l...:...L...l..l FIGURE 3 ..-. :T,; .,....- '1·!I :j I jl:.;j.......,.....-.....--!·--c-f- t ';:'I';;j':J':'f~i:"::::-I':~:,+:.;1::+.;.':·:·'i..;","::,,i'.::::,. 'r'~r':_:..-::1 -. 1 .~., .~i. I....1 F I i" :1''1'7~;;j",,,::1··· IV 40°F THAW WATER TEMP.wLTIl i of TEMP DROP IN 250 FT OJ?DEPTH,. 50°F THAW WATER TEMP.WITH 2°F TEMP DROPIN 250FT OF DEPTH. o 100°F THAW WATER TEMP.WITH 10°F TEMP DROP IN 250 FT OF DEPTH • <> iiI: :]:~ :J:; .;:1:"::::/::::1'.+:::1':: .. -. I:::::::"'I:,cF+9~7~-~'[':':'b'+~I~:""f-'-4-'''':'!.;.--t-..._!···I·_··'··-,-······_-t-·····I I::.1,,d •.,J ,;;:.!:...!.I !...:!.I ;1.,.,(.'.,I .....L;.....! It ·,:t:,BEDROCK PROPERTIES USED .i ,',:UNIFORlHORO~lT'l'1.5%ic-~r-'I :I::1:mUFORli GROUNDTEl·fP:320F ~I::::.'..:"1,J ICE SATURATED ROCK :I":~."UNlj'ROZEN ROCK THERMAL CONDUCTIVITY 1.6 .BT.U/hr Ft OF ::•......_i ...:. ".:t SPECIFIC GRAVITY 2.68 ::.;. .;.._~'.. ~:..~.1~E..I';Y.:I··::::':I'.:J.:.~::I ::.]".:I I'..;.'\,·,·T-:-··.i 10 ~..1j:1l~Fk+T".!,iT;:..HI ;::1 t :l:.!i::iFH1T::;j~,T I ',,;,'"':1 ','"••"'I'.'I '_!':,::i·I::!"!... ...~o.T 'Ii ·t·..I -+.i .'.;..,~..1 ....:'k ~.l :'.:1'......'f'i..'-,_. I rv .,'..;.;~:..,.........,...I....!,.....1·~:"-J '"A.I J .I i 20~.•idi ..j.y[:J.::;·dG-rrl i+i c. -~a.c:>- W ...J 0 J: W 0::: 0 CO a::wa. 0:::w I- 00 c::{ 0 "3:'to.) 3:« J: l- lL 0 W ~ ::::> ...J 0> 5:g lL APPENDIXAASSU~EDROCKPROPERTIES·ANDTHERMALVALUES803LatentHeatofIceSaturatedRock124BTU/ft31.6BTU/hr.ft.of33.9BTU/ft333.4BTU/ft31.5%2.681651b/ft3VolumetricSpecificHeatUnfrozenRockFrozenRockConductivityforUnfrozenRockUniformporositySpecificGravityDryUnitWeightIceSaturateROCKPROPERTIESTHERMALVALUES EXHIBIT0-5UNITEDSTATESDEPARTMENTOFTHEINTERIORGEOLOGICALSURVEYRECONNAISSANCEGEOLOGICMAPANDGEOCHRONOLOGY,TALKEETNAMOUNTAINSQUADRANGLE,NORTHERNPARTOF.ANCHORAGEQUADRANGLE,ANDSOUTHWESTCORNEROFHEALYQUADRANGLE,ALASKAOPEN-FILEREPORT78-558-AThisreportispreliminaryandhasnotbeeneditedorreviewedforconformitywithGeologicalSurveystandardsandnomenclatureMenloPark,California1978 DESCRIPTIONOFMAPUNITS-SEDIMENTARYANDVOLCANICROCKSSURFICIALDEPOSITS,UNDIFFERENTIATED(Quaternary)--Glacialandalluvialdeposits,chieflyunconsolidatedgravel,'sand,andclay.VOLCANICROCKS,UNDIFFERENTIATED(PaleocenetoMiocene,uppermostpartmaybeasyoungasPleistocene)--Over1,500-m-thicksequenceoffelsictomaficsubaerialvolcanicrocksandrelatedshallowintrusives.Lowerpartofsequenceconsistsofsmallstocks,irregulardikes,lenticularflows,andthicklayersofpyro-clasticrocks;madeupdominantlyofmedium-tofine-grained,generallymedium-grayquartzlatite,rhyolite,andlatite.Afewdikesandintercalatedflowsofbrownandesitearealsopres-ent.Rocksofthelowerpartofthesequence,occurringmostlyintheupperTalkeetnaRiverarea,areinterpretedtobeventfaciesdepositsandnearventdepositsofstratovolcanos.Theupperpartofthesequenceconsistsofgentlydippingbrownande-siteandbasaltflowsinterlayeredwithminoramountsoftuffs.Afewlensesoffluviatileconglomeratearealsopresent.Locally,atYellowjacketCreekforinstance,thefeederdikesofthemaficflowsmakeupmorethanhalfthevolumeoftheunderlyingcountryrocks.AccordingtoE.M.MacKevett,Jr.(oralcommun.,1975),theandesiteandbasaltflowsar~lithologicallyidenti-caltothebasalandesitesoftheWrangellLavaineasternAlaska.805 Contactbetweenthedominantlyfelsiclowerpartandmaficupperpartofthesequenceisgradationalthroughintertongu~ingofthetworocktypes.Thethreesamplesforpotassium-argonagedeterminations(mapnumbers7,8,13intable1),indicatingPaleoceneandEoceneages,wereobtainedfromande-siteflowsnearthemiddleofthissequence.TimHYPABYSSALMAFICINTRUSIVES(PaleocenetoMiocene,youngestrocksmaybePleistocene)--Smallstocksandirregulardikesofdio-riteporphyry,di~base,andbasalt.Theyprobablyarethesub-volcanicequivalentsoftheandesiteandbasaltflowsofunitTv.TifHYPABYSSALFELSICINTRUSIVES(PaleocenetoMiocene,somerocksmaybeasyoungasPle.istQcene)--Smallstocksandirregulardikesofrhyolite,quartzlatite,andlatite.Lithologically,they.areidenticalto,andthusprobablycorrelativewiththefelsicsubvolcanicrocksofunitTv.TtwTSADAKA(Miocene)ANDWISHBONE(PaleoceneandEocene)FORMATIONS,UNDIVIDED--TsadakaFormation,occurringonlyatWishboneHill,consistsofcobble-boulderconglomeratewiththininterbedsofsandstone,siltstoneiandshale;about200mthick.TheWish-boneFormation,whichunconformablyunderliestheTsadaka,com-priseswell-induratedfluviatileconglomeratewiththickinter-bedsofsandstone,siltstone,andclaystone;about600to900mthick(Dettermanandothers,1976;Barnes,1962).Thepresentmapunitalsoincludesover150moffluviatileconglomerate806 TcCHICKALOONFORMATION{Pa1eocene)--We11-indurated;continental,PLUTONICANDMETAMORPHICROCKSTgdTERTIARYGRANODIORITE(Eocene)--Containshornblendeandbiotite.siltstone,claystone,ilndcong10merate,containingnumerousbedsofbituminouscoal;over1,500mthick(Barnes,1962).TsuSEDIMENTARYROCKS,UNDIFFERENTIATED{Tertiary)--F1uviati1econ-807Rocksofthisunitoccurinonelargeandseveralsmaller,glomerate,sandstone,andclaystonewithafewthininterbedsof1igniticcoal.Lithologically,theserockslooksimilartotheTertiarysedimentaryrocksofthesouthern.Ta1keetnaMoun-tains,butlackoffossilevidencedoesnotpermitmoredefini-tivecorrelation.ThelargestexposureoftheserocksisalongWatanaCreek,and,accordingtoSmith(1974a),thesequenceisover160mthick.litho10gicallYlitresemblesthePaleoceneChickaloonFormationoftheMatanuskaValley.dominantlyfluviatilesequenceofmassivefe1dspathicsandstone,andcoalysandstone(unitTfofGrantz,1960a,b)intheeast-ernTalkeetnaMountains.Thisgranodioriteispartofasmallplutonalongthenorthernedgeofthemaparea.TurnerandSmith(1974)reportanEoceneageforthispluton,determinedbythepotassium-argonmethodonbiotite(48.8+1.5m.y.)andonhornblende(44.8+1.3m.y.)fromasamplejustnorthofthepresentmaparea.BIOTITE-HORNBLENDEGRANODIORITE(Paleocene,inpartmaybeEocene)-·T},jThgd poorlyexposedplutonsinthewesternilndnorthernTalkeetnaMountain.s.AlloftheplutonswereforcjblyintrudedintheepizoneofBuddington(1959).Granodioriteisthedominantrock,butlocallyitgradesintoadame.11ite(;::granitewithplagioclaseandalkalife]dsparinapproximatelyequalpropor-tions),tonalite,andquartzdiorite.Alltheserocksaremediumtodarkgray,mediumgrained,genera.11ystructureless,andhav.egranitictoseriatetextures.Inallofthem,horn-blendeisthechiefmaficmineral.Biotite-andhornblende--richxenolithsofreconstitutedcountryrockarecommonineverypluton.Thelithologiccompositionsandavailableage.determinations(seetable1)indicatethatthesegraniticrocksaretheplutonicequivalentsofsomeofthefelsicrocksinthe·lowerportionof.unitTv.TbgdBIOTITEGRANODIORITE(Paleocene,inpartmaybeEocene)--Biotitegranodioriteandadamelliteinapproximatelyequalproportions.Biotiteisthechiefmaficmineral,hornblendeisoccasionallypresent.Colorislighttomediumgray,grainsizeisfrommediumtocoarse,textureisgranitictoseriate.Veryfaintflowstructureshavedevelopedonlylocally.Theserocksoccurinshallow,forciblyemplacedepizonalplutonsinthenorth-westernTalkeetnaMountains.Apliticandpegmatiticdikesarecommoninalltheplutons.Justnorthofthemaparea,theseplutonicrocksgradeintofelsicvolcanicrocks.Potassium-808 argonagedeterminations{seetable1)indicatethatthebio-titegranodioriteandadamelliteofthepresentunitareessen-tiallyofthesameageasthebiotite-hornblendegranodiorite(unitThgd).Thus,therocksofthesetwounits,inviewoftheirspatialproximity,probablyaretheproductsofdifferen~tiationofthesameparentmagma,eitherinsituoratsomedeeperlevelsintheEarth'scrust.ThebiotitegranodioriteintrusiVesarealsoconsideredtobetheplutonicequivalentsofsomeofthefelsicvolcanicrocksinthelowerportionofunitTv.TsmgSCHIST,MIGMATITE,ANDGRANITE{Paleoceneintrusiveand.metamor-phicages)--Undifferentiatedterraneofandalusiteand(or)sillimanite-bearingpeliticschist,lit-par-littypemigmatite,andsmallgraniticbodieswithmoderatelytowell-developedflowfoliation.Theserocksoccurinapproximatelyequalpro-portions,andthecontactsbetweenthemaregenerallygradational,asisthecontactbetweentheschistanditsunmetamorphosedpeliticrockequivalents(unitKag)outsidethepresentmapunit.Thepeliticschistismediumtodarkgray,mediumgrained,haswell-developedbutwavyfoliation,andcontainslit-par-littypegraniticinjectionsingreatlyvaryingamounts.Rock-fonningmineralsoftheschistincludebiotite(pleochroismNz=darkreddishbrown,Nx=palebrown),quartz,plagioclase,809 minorK-feldspar,muscpyite,garnet,andsillimanitewhichlocallycoexistswithandalusite.Thelit-par-littypegraniticinjectionswithintheschistaremediumgray,medi.umgrained,andconsistoffeldspar,quartz,andbiotite.Therocks·ofthesmall,graniticbodiesrangeincomposi-tionfrombiotiteadamellitetobiotite-hornblend~.granodiorite.Theyaremediumgrayandmedium.grained,generallyhavegrani-tictextures,and,inadditiontothe)flgwfoliation,locallydisplayflowbandingoffelsicandmaficminerals.Thesegrani-ticbodiesappeartobethesourceofthe1it-:-par-lit.intrusions.Theproximityoftheschisttothe.smallgraniticbodies,theoccurrenceofthe.lit-par-litinjections,andthe;.presenceofandalusiteinthesch.istindicatethattheschististheresultofcontactmetamorphism.Perhapsthismetamorphismtookplaceintheroofzone..ofalargepluton.thecupolasofwhichmaybethesmallgraniticbodies.TKtTONALITE(UpperCretaceousandLowerPaleocene)--Dominantlybiotite-hornblendetonalite,locallygradesintoquartzdiorite.Thetonalite.ismedi.umgray,coarse.tomediumgr:ained,hasagrani-tictextureandafairlywell~developedprimaryfoliation.Itoccursinalarge,possiblycomposite,batholith,approximately75to61m.y.old(seetablel).whichwasemplacedintheepi-zoneandmesozoneofBuddington(1959).Thetonaliteisdescribedinmor'edetailinCsejtey(1974).810 TKaADAMELLITE(UpperCretaceousandLowerpa.leocene)--Occursinalargeepizonalplutoninthesouthwesternpartofthemaparea.Thedominantrocktypeisadamelliteoutlocallyincludesgran-odiorite.Biotiteisthechiefmaficmineral,muscoviteoccursinsubordinateamo'unts.Thetypicaladamelliteismediumtolightgray,mediumtocoarsegrained,itstexturerangesfromgranitictoseriate.Theadamelliteappearstobeintrusiveintothetonalite(unitTKt),·butconcordantpotassium-argonagesononesample(mapno.24,tableT)indicatetheadamellitetobeessentiallythesameageasthetonalite.Theserocksapparentlyarecomagmatic.TKgrGRANITICROCKS,UNDIVIDED(Cretaceousand(or)Tertiary)--TheserocksofuncertainageoccurinfoursmaTlerepizonalplutonsofgranodioriteandtonalite.Theircolorismediumtodarkgray,grainsizeismedium,textureis'granitic.Maficmineralsarehornblendeand(or)biotite.Thelargestoftheseplutons,inthenortheastcornerofthemaparea,isreportedbySmithandothers(l975)tobeofCretaceousage.TKlgLEUCOGABBRO(Cretaceousand(or)Tertiary);'-Small,poorlyexposedintrusiveofuncerta.inageinwest-centralpart.ofmaparea,'essentiallyconsistingofplagioclase(aroundAn70andabout80percentofvolume),.andpale-greenhornblende.Theleuco-gabbroismediumtolightgray,coarsetomediumgrained,withagranitictoseriatetexture.811 SOUTHEASTERNTALKEETNAMOUNTAINSSedimentaryandvolcanicrocksKarARKOSERIDGEFORMATION(Cretaceous}--Arkosicsandstone,conglom-erate,graywacke,siltstone,andshale(Dettermanandothers,1976;GrantzandWolfe,1961).Clastic.componentsconsistchieflyofgranitic.andmetamorphicrockfragments,quartz,feldspar,andbiotite,indicatingadominantlyplutonicand,toalesserextent,metamorph.icprovenance(G.R.Winkler,oralcommun.,1977)Numerousplantfragments..suggestadominantlyterrestrialorigin.Recentfieldandpetrographicstudies~sejteyandothers,1977)indicate.thatthisformationisofCretaceousage.A.pre..Tertiaryage<isalso.indtcatedbyapotassium-argonagedeterminationonb.iotite(mapno.37,table1)•ThebiotHe.wasseparated.fromasample.ofgraywackewithsecondarybiotite,obtained·fromnearthetonalitepluton(unitTKt).The.formationrestsuncdnformablyonJurassicgraniticandmetamorphicrocksandisasmuchas70D.mthick.InthisreporttheArkose.Ridgeisconsid.eredtobe.adominantlynon-marine·.faciesoftheCretaceousMatanuskaFormationKmMATANUSKAFORMATION(LowerandUpperCretaceous)....Well-induratedshale,siltstone,sandstone,graywacke,with.subordinatecon-glomerateinterbeds;occursalongthesouthernedgeofthemaparea,mostlyintheMatanuska.Va11ey.Theserocks,havingatotalthicknessinexcess..ofl,200m,aregenerallydarkgray812 andthinlybedded,andforthelTl()st<partweredepdsi1:edinamarineenvironmenfofmodera~etoshallowdepths..Someofthesandstonebedscontainfragmen~aryplantremains.AgeoftheformationrangesfromMaestrichtianatthetoptoAlbianatthebase(Grantz,1964).TheformationrestswithapronouncedangularunconformityonLowerCretaceousandolderstrata.Inpart,theMatanuskaFormationcorrelateswiththeKennicott,theShulze,theChititna,andtheMacCallRidgeFormationsofthesouthernHrangellr40untains(Jones,1967).KsuSEDIMENTARYROCKS,UNDIVIDED(LowerCretaceous}--Ash~llowwatermarinesequenceofthinlybeddedcalcareoussandstone,siltstone,claystone,minorconglomerate,andthick-beddedtomassiveclasticlimestone;interpretedasacontinentalshelf-typedeposit;over100mthick.Thesestrataoccurinthesouth-easternTalkeetnaMountains,andtheyhavebeenpreviouslymappedanddatedbyGrantz(1960a,b).Thepresentundividedunitincludes.Grantz'unitsKs,Kc,andtheNelchinaLimestone.ThecontactbetweenthesestrataandtheunderlyingJurassicNaknekFormation(unitJh)isaslightlyangularunconformity.TheNelchinaLimestonecorrelateswiththeBergCreekFormationofthesouthernWrangellt40untains(E.M.MacKevett,Jr.,oralcommun.,1977).JnNAKNEKFORMATION(UpperJurassic)--Shallowwatermarine,thintothickbedded,<intercalatedstrataoffossiliferousgray813 siltstone,shale,sandstone,andconglomerate;over1,400mthick.PreviouslymappedanddatedbyGrantz(J960a,.b).TheNaknekFormationisrestrictedtothesoutheasternTalkeetnaMountains,lacksanycontemporaneousvolcanicmaterial,andappearstohavebeendepositedinacontinentalshelfenviron-ment.ItscontactwiththeunderlyingChinitnaFormationisaveryslightlyangularunconformity.TheNaknekcorrelateswiththeRootGlacierFormationofthesouthernWrangellMountains(E.M.MacKevett,Jr.,oralcommun.,1977).JctCHINITNAFORMATION(UpperJurassic)ANDTUXEDNIGROUP(MiddieJurassic),UNDIVIDED--TheChinitnaFormationconsistsofasha1-lowmarine,intercalatedsequenceofdark""grayshale,siltstone,andsubordinategraywacke;containsnumerouslargelimestoneconcretions;itisasmuchas600mthick.TheTuxedniGroupunconformablyunderliestheChinitna,andconsistsofshallowmarine,well-indurated,thinlytothicklybedded/graywacke,sandstone,andmassivecong1omeratejnjtslowerpart,andthinlytothicklybeddeddarksiltstoneand<shaleinitsupperpart.TheTuxedniisabout300to400mthick.BoththeChinitnaandTuxednihavebeenpreviouslymappedanddatedbyGrantz(1960a,b;1961a,b),byGrantzand.others(1963),andbyDetter-manandothers(1976).Bothformationsoccurin.thesoutheast-ernpartofthemaparea,aredevoidofcoevalvolcanicmaterial,andareinterpretedtohavebeen<depositedina814 continentalshelfenvironment.ThecontactbetweentheTuxedniGroupandtheunderlyingTalkeetnaFormation(unitJtk)isamajorangularunconformity.TheChinitnaandTuxedniarepartly{jcorrelativewiththeKNizinaMountainFormationofthesouthernWrangellMountains(E.M.MacKevett,Jr.,oralCOll1l1un.,1977).JtkTALKEETNAFORMATION(LowerJurassic)--Andesiticflows,flowbrec-cia,tuff,andagglomerate;subordinateinterbedsofsandstone,siltstone,andlimestone(mappedseparatelyasunitJls),espe-ciallyinupperpartoftheformation.Adominantlyshallowmarinesequerice,about1,000to2,000mthick(Grantz,1960a,b;1961a,b;Grantzandothers,1963;Dettermanandothers,1976).Thisformationoccursonlyinthesoutheasternhalfofthemappedareaanditsbaseisnowhereexposed.Theoccurrenceofmarble(uriitsJmbandJmbr)withintheplutonicandmetamorphicrocksjustnorthwestoftheTalkeetnaFormationoutcropareasuggeststhattheformationisunderlainbyvolcanogenicrocksofTriassic(unitlRv)andofPaleozoicage(unitPzv).J1sLIMESTONE(LowerJurassic)--Light-todark-gray,fine-tomedium-grainedunfossi1iferouslimestone;neargranitiCrocksrecry-stallizedtomedium-tocoarse-grainedmarble.Formsdiscontin-uouslenticularbodies,asmuchas30mthick,withinTalkeetnaFormation.815 PlutonicandmetamorphicrocksKumSERPENTINIZEDULTRAMAFICROCKS(Lowerand(or).ppperCretaceous)--Theserocksoccurinsmall,tectQni~allyemplaced,discordantbodies(protrusions)withintheprobablyLowerto.MiddleJuras-sicpeliticschist(unitJps)nearWillowCreek.Theyaremediumgreenishgray:toblackincolor.,andare..composedofaphaniticmassesofserpentinetalminoramountsofactino1ite-tremo1ite,chlorite,andopaquemineralsRelicttextureswerenowhereobserved,andallthesebodiesarestronglysheared.Semiquantitativespectrographicanalysesindicatechromiumcon-tentstobebetween1,000and5,000ppmandnickelbetween1,000and2,000ppm(analysesbyD.F.SiemsandJ.M.Motooka,1973).Fireassayanalysesoftensamplesshowbothplatinumandpal-ladiumcontentstorangefrom0.0ppmto0.030ppm(analysesbyR.R.Carlson,1973).However,theaverageplatinumtopal-ladiumratioisonlyaboutthree.toone.Potassium-argonagedeterminationsonactino1ite-tremo1itefromtwosamplesyieldedearlyLateCr,etaceous.minimumages(mapnos.32,..36,table1).TheseminimumagescoincideintimewithamiddletoLateCre-taceousperiodofintense,alpine-typeorogenicdeformation(seeStructureandTectonicssections)oftheTalkeetna,Moun-tainsregion.Thus,theserpentinitebodies,whoseoriginalageisunknown,areassumedtohavebeenemplacedduringthisorogeny.816 JtrTRONDHJEMITE(UpperJurassic)--Formsadiscordant,northeast-trending, elongate,epizona1plutonoffairlyuniformlithologyinthecentralTalkeetnaMountains.Largepqrtionsoftheplutonhavebeenshearedandsaussuritized.Typically,thetrondhjemiteislightgray,mediumtocoa-rsegrainedwithagranitictexture.AfaintflowfoliationislocallydevelopedMajorrockform-ingmineralsareplagioclase(oligoclasetosodic.andesine),quartz,K-fe1dspar(between°to10percentofvolume),andbiotite,withsubordinateamountsofmuscovite,andopaquemin-erals.Colorindexrarigesfrom3tog.Averageoxidepercent-ages,byweight,ofseventrondhjemiteanalys~sare.:Si02-70.30,A1203-16.74,K20 -1.27,Na20-5.07,CaO-3.33.Potassium-argonagedeterminations(mapnos.21,22,26,31,table1)fromthesouthernpartoftheplutonshowconsiderablevariationinage,whichisattributedtoresetting.However,threeagedeterminationsfromthenorthernhalfofthepluton(mapnos.10,11, 14,table1),includingconcordantagesonamineralpairofmuscoviteandbiotite,yieldedverysimilarnum-bersindicatingtheemp1acement.ofthe.troridbjemiteplutonbetween145to150.m.y..ago.The.trondhjemiteistheyoungestmemberof.agroupofJurassicplutonicandmetamorphicrocksintheTalkeetnaMountains.JgdGRANODIORITE(Midd1etoUpperJurassic)..-Dominantlygranodioritebutincludesminoramountsoftonaliteandquartzdiorite.817 Theseepiionalplutonicrocks,underlyingconsiderableareasinthecentralandeasternTalkeetnaMountains,wereprobablyemplacedasmultipleintrusionofconsanguineousmagmas.Theyarel11ediumtddarkgray,mediumgrained,andinundeformedrocksthetextureisgranitic.Maficmineralsarehornblendeandbiotiteinvariousproportions.Alongthenorthwesternborderofitsexposurearea,thegranodioriteandrelatedrockshavebeencataclasticallYdeformed,resultinginapronouncednorth-east-trehdingsecondaryfoliationand,toa 1esserdegree,lineation.Thewidthofthedeformedzonevariesfromabout2I<mt025km.Isotopicagedeterminations(mapnumbers15-17,27,tables1,2)fromfourseparatelocalitiesindicatethatemplacement,probablymultipleintrusions,tookplaceapproxi-mately150and175m.y.ago.WhiletheUpperJurassictrond-hjemiteintrudesthegranodiorite,thegranodioriteitselfintrudestheTalkeetnaFormatioifoflowerJurassicage(Grantzandothers,1963).JgdmMIGMATITICBORDERZONEOFGRANODIORITE(Middleto<UpperJurassic)--Formsaterraneofpoorlyexposed,intricatelyintermixedcon-tact<schist,amphibolite,andsmalldikesandveinletsofgran-odiorite;alloftheserocktypesoccurinapproxima.telyequalproportions.Thecontactschistisdarktomediumgray,mediumgrained;rock-formingmineralsarequartz,biotite,andsubordinateplagioclase.818 Theamphiboliteisdarkgray,mediumgrajned,..andconsistsofhornblendeandp.lagioclase;megascopicschis,'tosityisseldomconspicuous.Thegranodioriteisthesameasthatof.unitJgd;mostoftheveinletshavebeenintrudedalongfoliation.planes.The",tamorphicrocksofthisunitwereprobCiblyderivedfromeithertheTalkeetnaFormation(unitJtk)orfromtheupperPaleozoicvolcanogenicsequence(4nitPzv),orpossiblyinpartfromtheUpperTriassic..basalticsequence(unit1Rv).JmrbMARBLE(MiddletoUpperJurassicmetamorphicage)--Contactmeta-morphosedmarblebedmore.thanAOmthickwithinmigmatiticborderzone.(unitJgdm).ThemarbleispoorlyexposedandoccursonlyalongJohnCreek,atributaryofupperKosinaCreek.Therockiswhite,coarsetomediumgrained,andcontainsnum-erousporphYroblasticcrystalsofandraditegarnetanddiopside.The.marblewasderived.from.a1imestonebed,probablywithintheupperPaleozoicvolcanogenicsequence(unitPzv)orpos-sibly.withintheUpperTriassicbasalticseq~ence(unitlRv).~qdQUARTZDIORITE(LowertoMiddle~~rassic--EpizonalintrusiveinthesouthernTalkeetnaMountains.Dominant)yquartzdioritebutalsoincludes.dioritean~tonalite.Large~portionsofthisrockhavebeenshearedandinten$ivelyaltered~Thefreshquartzdioriteismediumtodarkgreenishgray,mediumtocoarsegrained,andhasagranitictexture.Rock-formingmineralsareplagioclase(and~sine)'rquartz,hornblende,~subordinatebiotite8.19 andK-feldspar.Wherealtered,thequartzdioriteconsistsofmineralaggregatesofepidote,chlorite,andsericite,aswellassomeremnantsoftheprimaryminerals.TheageofthequartzdioriteisprobablylateEarlyJurassicorearlyMiddleJurassicbecauseitintrudestheTalkeetnaFormationandisintrudedbytheMiddletoUpperJurassicgranodioriteofunitJgd.JamAMPHIBOLITE(LowertoMiddleJurassicmetamorphicage)--Formsametamorphicterraneconsistingdominantlyofamphibolitebutincludessubordinateamountsofgreenschistandfoliateddiorite.Thismetamorphicterranealsoincludesseveralinterbedsofcoarselycrystallinemarblewhicharemappedanddescribedsepar-ately(unitJmb).Theamphiboliteisgenerallydarkgreenishgray,mediumtocoarsegrained,butfine-grainedvarietiesalsooccur.Foli-ationandlineationaregenerallypoorlydeveloped,andsegre-gationlayeringisrare.Majorrock-formingmineralsare,inapproximatelyequalproportions,anhedraltoeuhedralhornblende(Z=darkgreentobrownishgreen,occasionallybluishgreen)andanhedral,generallytwinnedplagioclaserangingfromlabra-doritetocalcicandesine.Accessorymineralsarequartz,garnet,sphene,apatite,opaques,occasionalepidote,and,insomeoftherocks,shredsofbiotite.Thegreenschistisdarkgreenishgray,finetomediumgrained,withamoderatelywell-developedschistosity.Majorminerals820 areactinolite,untwinnedplagioclase(probablyalbite),epidote,ch16rite,quartz,andopaques.Someoftheactinolite-likeamphibolemayactuallybealuminoushornblende,thussomeoftheserocksmaybetransitionaltoamphibolite.Thefoliateddioriteisverysimilar.totheamphiboliteinappearance.Itisdarkgreenishgray,rnediumtocoarsegrained,withagenerallywel1-developedshearfoliation.Aremnantgranitictextureisalwaysdiscernible/inthinsection:Rock-formingmineralsarehornblende,twinnedandoccasionallyzonedplagioclase(andisinetosodiclabradorite),withsubordinateamountsofchloriteandepidote,minorquartzandbiotite,andopaques.Alloftheaboverocks,aswellasthequartzdioriteofunitJqd,apparentlyaretheearliestproductsofaJurassicplutonicandmetamorphiceventwhichappearstohavestartedin/theTalkeetnaMountainsinlateEarlyJurassictimeafterthedepositionoftheTalkeetnaFormation(unitJtk).Apotas-sium-argonagedetermination>onhornblendeofadioriteoramphibolitesample(mapno~5,table1)fromthenortheastpartofthemapareayieldedanageof176.6m.y.(TurnerandSmith,1974),suggestinganEarlytoMiddleJurassicagefortheamphi-boliteandassociatedrocks.ThequartzdioriteofunitJqdinthesouthernTalkeetnaMountainsisprobablycorrelativewiththesheareddioriteoftheamphiboliteterrane.8~1 ThemetamorphicrocksoftheamphiboliteterraneprobablywerederivedfrqiTIanyorallofthefollowingdominantlybasicvolcanicformations:TalkeetnaFormation(unitJt~),upperPaleozoic.volcanogenicsequence(unitPzv),or.theUpperTrias-si.cbasalticsequence(unitlRv).Thepodsofgreenschist,intercalatedwi.ththeamphibolite,.suggestthatthf:metamor-phismintheamphibolitf:terranewas..notqfunifoY'Jl1intensity.JmpMARBLE(LowertoMiddleJurassicmetamorph.icage)7-White,medium-tocoarse-grainedmarble.It.occursinmassiveinterbeds,asmuchas30mthick,withintheamphiboliteterraneof.unitJam.Themarble.containssubordinate.amountsofgarnet.anddiopside.Itsparentrockwasalimestonebed,probablywithintheTal-keetnaFormation(unitJtk)orwithintheupperPaleozoicvol-canogenicsequence(unitPzv),or,least)ikelwithintheUpperTria.ss.icbasalticsequence(unitlRv).JmiAMPHIBOUTE.ANDQUARTZDIORITE(Lowerto.MiddleJurass.icmeta-morphicandplutonicagesh')Forms.aterraneofintr.icatelyintermixedamphiboliteandquartzdioriteinabout.equalamountsinthe.southernTalkeetnaMountains.Theamphiboliteis.v.erysimilartotheamphi,boliteofunitJam,thusthetwoamphibolites.areconsidf:redtobecorrelative,andnodescriptionis.givenhere.pnedifferenceisthatsegre-tionlayeringofmaficand.felsiccomponents)ismoreprevalentintheamphiboliteofungJmi.Athin.wedgeofbiotite-quartz-feldspargneiss,probablyderivedfromanonvolcanicclastic822 interbed,isintercalatedwiththeamphibolitealong'lowerGraniteGreek(Dettermanandothers,1976;TravisHudson,oralcommun.,1978).ThequartzdioriteispetrographicallyidenticaltothequartzdioriteinadjacentunitJqd(seerockdescriptionthere),andthetworocksare.consideredtobecorrelative.Thequartz/imityoftheamphiboliteterrane(unitJam)stronglysuggeststhatthe.metavolcanicgreenstonesofthepresent.unitrepresenta.low-gradefacies.ofthesamemetamorphismwhich,roducedtheamphibolite.TherelativepositionofthegreenstonewithinthenortheasterlystructuraltrendoftheTalkeetnaMountainssuggeststhatthegreenstonewas·probablyderivedfromtheTalkeetnaFormation(unitJtk)or,possibly,fromeithertheupperPaleozoicvolcanogenicsequence(unitPzv)or·theUpperTriassicbasalticsequence(unitlRv).T}'I823 JpsPELITICMICASCHIST(ProbablyLowertoMiddleJurassicmetamor-phicage)--ThisrockoccursonlyintheSouthwestetncornerofthemapareaneartheheadwatersofWillowCreek~Theschistismediumtodarkgray,mediumgrained,withuniformlithologythroughoutitsexposurearea.Itsubiquitousmineralconsti-tuentsarequartz,muscovite,albite,chlorite,chloritizedcrystalsofgarnetandsubordinatebiotite.Verythinlaminaeofcarbonaceousmaterialoccursparsely.SmallopenfoldsandcrenulationsformanincipientslipcleavageatalargeangleItotheprimaryschistosity.Numerousthinveinsandstringersofhydrothermalquartzoccurthroughouttheschist.DetailedpetrographicdescriptionsofthemicaschistaregiveninRay(1954).ThepresentmineralogyoftheschistisindicativeofthegreenschistmetamorphicfaciesofTurner(1968).However,itisprobablyretrogradefromhighermetamorphism,possiblytheamphi-bolitefacies.Evidenceforthisisthechloritizedgarnetandbiotitecrystalsandthesparsemineraloutlinesconsistingofchloritewhichprobablyarepseudomorphsafterhornblende.Theageoftheschistisimperfectlyknown,but,basedonregionalgeologicinterpretations,theprimarymetamorphismisconsideredtobeEarlytoMiddleJurassicinage.Thus,theschistandtheamphiboliteofunitJamareinterpretedtobetheproductsofthesamemetamorphism.Theretrogrademetamor-phismisassumedtobeofmiddletoLateCretaceousinageand824 relatedtoanalpine-typeoro'genyintheTalkeetnaMountainsatthattime.However,theLateCretaceousArkoseRidgeFormation,whichliesunconformablyontheschist"hasnotbeenaffectedbythisretrogrademetamorphism.Thethreepotassium-argonagedeterminations,measuredonmuscovitefromtheschist(mapnos.33-35,table1),yieldedobviouslyresetPaleoceneages.Theparentrockoftheschistisunknownbecausenopeliticrocksofcompar~blethickness(theschistisatleastseveral<hundredmetersthick)areknowntooccurinthepre-MiddleJurassicrocksoftheTalkeetnat1ountains.JpmuPLUTONICANDMETAMORPHICROCKS,UNDIFFERENTIATED(LowertoUpperJurassicplutonicand.metamorphicages)--Thisunitconsistsofanintricatelyintermixedmosaicofmostofthepreviouslydis-cussedJurassicmetamorphicandplutonicrocks(unitsJtr,Jgd,Jgdm,Jqd,Jam,Jgs,andJps).Withintheterraneofthepres-entunit,theexposureareaofanindividualrocktypeisnotmorethanafewsquarekilometers.Tworocktypes,amphyboliteandshearedquartzdiorite,compriseapproximately60percentoftheterrane.Nextinimportanceareshearedgranodioriteandassociatedmigmatites.Subordinateamountsofpeliticmicaschistandgreenstonealsooccur.Numerousapophysesoftrond-hjemite,asmuchasseveralmetersthick,occuralongtheeast-ernedgeoftheterraneadjacenttothelargetrondhjemitepluton(unitJtr).Alloftheserocksarelithologicallyvery825 similar.,totheircorrelative.mapunits,andtheywillnotbedescribedhere.At..two.1ocalities,theshearedgranodiorite(unitJgd)wasmappedseparatelytoshowtheproximityofshea,redJurassicgraniticrockstotheLateCretaceousandearlYPaleoceneunshearedtonalite(unitTKt).NORTHWESTERNTALKEETNAMOUNTAINS.ANDUPPERCHULITNARIVERAREASedimentaryandvolcanicrocks;rocksofeachcolumnoccurinsepar-atefaultblocks..CentralandnorthernTalkeetnaMountains~vBASALTICMETAVOLCANICROCKS(UpperTriassic)--Thisshallowwatermarineunitconsistsofamygdaloidalmetabasaltflowswithverysubordinateamountsofthininterbedsofmetachert,argillite,metavolcaniclasticrocks,andmarble(Smithandothers,1975).Rocksofthisunithavebeenmappedonlyinthenortheastpor-tionofthemaparea.However,smallblocksofthebasalticrocksmayoccurwithinthecomplexlydeformedlatePaleozoicvolcanogenicsequence(unitPzv)towardthesouthwest.ThebasalticrocksrestwithangularunconformityonthelatePaleo-zoicvolcanics(unitPzv);thetopofthebasaltsisunexposed.TheminimalthicknessofthebasalticmetavolcanicrocksisBOOm.Theindividualmetabasaltflowsareasmuchas10mthick.and,accordingtoSmithandothers(1975),displaycolumnarjointingandlocallypillowstructures.Thetypicalmetabasaltisdark826 greenishgray,finegrained,andgenerallycontainsnumerousamygdules.Thinsectionsshowthemetabasaltstoconsistoflabradorite,augite,andopaquesinanintergranularorsub-ophitictexture.Secondarymineralsarechlorite,epidote,clinozoisite,verysubordinateaHanite,sericite,andpossiblysomekaolin.Theamygdulesconsistofchlorite,silica,andzeolites.Thepresentmineralogyisprobablytheresultofdeutericalterationandlow"graderegionalmetamorphismwhichapparentlydidnotreachtheintensityofthegreenschistfaciesofTurner.(1968).Fromama~bleinterbedinupper.WatanaCreek(locality1,~table.3),T.E.Smith(unpub.data,1974)collectedfossilspeci-menswhichwereidentifiedandinterpretedbyK.M.N.icholsandN.J.SilberlingtobeHalobiacf.H.sy:mmet;ricaSmith,indicat-ingalatestKarnianorearlyNorianage.Previously,Smith(1974a)andSmithandothers(1975)havecorrelatedthebasalticmetavolcanicrocksofthepresentunitwiththeAmphitheaterGroupofthecentralAlaskaRange.Accordingly,thefossilscollectedbyT.E.SmithsuggestthattheAmphitheaterGroupisyoungerthan,andthusnotcorrelativewiththe1ithologicallyverysimilarNikolaiGreenstoneofpre-lateKarnianageineasternAlaska(Jonesandothers,1977).PzvBASALTICTOANDESITICMETAVOLCANOGENICROCKS(Pennsylvanian(?)andEarlyPermian)--Rocksofthisunitoccurin.anortheast-trendingbeltacrossthecenteroftheTalkeetnaMountains,and827 theyformaninterlayeredheterogeneous,dominantlymarinesequenceover5,000mthick.Thebaseofthesequenceisnowhereexposed,andthecontactwiththeoverlyingTriassicmetabasaltsisanangularunconformity.Themetavolcanogenicsequenceconsistsdominantlyofmetamorphosedflowsandtuffsofbasaltictoandesiticcomposition,andofcoarse-tofine-grainedmetavolcaniclasticrockswithclastscomposedchieflyofmaficvolcanicrocks.Mudstone,bioclasticmarble(mappedanddescribedseparatelyasunitPls),anddark-graytoblackphyllitearesubordinate.Thevariousrocktypesofthesequenceformconformablebutlenticularunitsoflimitedarealextent.Thecrudelylayeredandpoorlysortedmetavolcaniclasticunitshavethicknessesinexcessof1,000m,andthe,thicknessofthephyllitesrangesfromafewmeterstoseveralhundredmeters.Thewholesequencehasbeentightlyfoldedandcomplexlyfaulted,andtherockshavebeenregionallymetamorphosedintomineralassemblagesmostlyofthegreenschistandtheprehnite-pumpel-lyitefacies,butlocallyalongTsisiCreekoftheamphybolitefaciesofTurner(1968).DetailedpetrographicdescriptionsoftheserocksweregivenbyCsejtey(1974).Theageofthemetamorphismisuncertain.Themostinten-sivemetamorphisminthemappedareaprobablytookplaceinEarlytoMiddleJurassictime,contemporaneouslywiththedeve1opmentoftheamphibo1iteterrane(unitJam).Subsequent828 butlessseveremetamorphism,primarilyshearing,occurredprobablyinmiddletoLateCretaceoustimedurin~thealpine-typeorogenic.deformationoftheTalkeetnaMountains(seediscussionsin.StructureandTectonicssections).Thecompositionandlithologiccharacterofthemetavol-canogenicsequencestronglysuggestthat,thissequenceisaremnantofacomplexvolcanicarcsystem(Csejtey,1974,1976).Fossilevidence(seedescriptionofunitPls)fromamarbleinterbednearthetopofthesequenceindicatesanEarlyPer-mianage.However,becauseoftheconsiderablethicknessofthesequence,itslowermostportionmaybeasoldasLatePennsylvanian.PlsMARBLE(Pennsy'1vanian(?)andEarlyPermian)--Forms1enticularinterbeds,asmuchasafewtensofmetersthick,withinthebasaltictoandesiticlatePaleozoicmetavolcanogenicsequence(unitPzv).Mostoftherockislightgray.towhite,mediumtocoarsegrained,thick-beddedtomassivemarble,butsomelessmetamorphosedvarietiesa.lsooccur.Sti11discernibleorganicremainsandbeddingfeaturesindicatethatthemarbleinter-bedswerederi.vedfrombioclastic1imes.tonewhichprobablywasdepositedbyhighenergycurrentsonshallowbanksoflimitedarealextent.AnumberofthemarbleinterbedsGontainpoorlypreservedandgenericallyunidentifiablecrinoidcolumnals,brachiopods,bryozoans,andrarelycorals(seetable3)of829 latePaleozoicorprobablelatePaleozoicages.However,oneofthemarbleinterbedsnearthetopofthesequence(locality8,table3)yieldedwell-preservedbrachiopodsandcrinoidcolumnalswhichwereidentifiedandinterpreted<byJ.T.Dutro,Jr.(Csejtey,1976)tobelateEarlyPermian,thatis,lateLeonardiantoearlyGuadalupianinage.Theregionalcorrela-tionoftheserocksandthatofthelatePaleozoicmetavolcano-,genicsequence(unitPzv)hasbeenpreviouslydiscussedbyCsejtey(1976).NorthernWatanaCreekareaJsSEDIMENTARYANDVOLCANICROCKS,UNDIVIDED(UpperJurassic)--Theserocksonlyoccurinasmall,apparentlytectonicsliveralongthenorthernedgeofthemaparea.Theycomprisea<sectionofintercalatedargilliteandgraywacke,pebbleconglomerate,andflowsanddikesofandesitictolatiticfeldsparporphyry.Someoftheserocksareshearedbutsome,mostlythepebbleconglom-erates,arenotsheared.Theargilliteandfine-grainedgraywackearethinlytomod-eratelythicklybeddedandgenerallyaredarkgray.However,dark-greenish-grayvarietiesalsOoccur,suggestingthepresenceofvolcanicashorfine-grainedtuffaceousmaterial.Thecon-glomeratesaremassive,andthewell-roundedtosubroundedpeb-blesconsistchieflyofunmetamorphosedandesite,latite,and830 subordinate.amountsofdacite.Aminorityofthepebblesarecomposed.ofdark7grayargilliteandwhitequartz.Thefeldsparporphyryisdarkgray,withflow.alinedphenocrystsofzonedandesineandoligoclaseasmuchas1cmlong,andsomehorn-blendeandbiotite,in·anaphaniticmatrix.Anargillitebedatthetopofthe5,053-fthillintheHealyA-2quadrangle,justnorthofthePresentmaparea,yielded.well-preservedfossilSofi.Buchiarugosa(Fischer),indicatingaLateJurassicageforthese.rocks(D.L.Jones,oralcommun.,1977).Onthebasisoflithologyandage,therocksofthepresentunitareconsideredtobethewesternmostoccurrenceoftheGravina-NutzotinterraneofBergandothers(1972).Northwest.TalkeetnaMountainsKagARGILLITEAND\.ITHIC.GRAYWACKE(LowerCretaceous)--Theserocksoccur.inamonotonous,.intenselydefo.rmedflyschliketurbiditesequence,probablyseveralthousandmetersthick,inthenorth-westpartofthemappedarea,northoftheTaJkeetnathrustf~ult..The-wholesequence.hasbeencompressedintotightandisoclinalfoldsandprobablyhasbeencomplexlyfau]tedaswell.Therocksareh.ighlyindurated,.andmanyaresheared.andper-vasively.cleavedasaresultof10w7gradedynamom~tamorphism,theintensityofwhichisonlylocallyashighasthelowermostportionofthegreenschistmetamorphicfaciesofTurner(1968).831 Mos1:ofthecleavageisprobablyaxialplanecleavage.Neitherthebasenorthetopofthesequenceisexposedand,becauseoftheintensedeformation,evenitsminimalthicknessisonlyanestimate.Theargilliteisdarkgrayorblack.Commonlyitcontainssmallgrainsofdetritalmicaasmuchas1romindiameter.Becauseofthedynamometamorphism,in1argeareastheargilliteisactuallyaslateorfine;..grainedphyllite.Thinsectionsshowthatsomeoftheargillitesarederivedfromveryfinegrainedsiltstoneandthattheycontainconsiderablecarbona-ceousmaterial.Thetypical1ithicgraywackeisdarktomediumgray,finetomediumgrained,andoccursintercalatedwiththeargilliteingradedbedsranginginthicknessfromlaminaetoabout1.5m.The!individualgraywackebedsarenotuniformlydistriblltedthroughoutthewllolesequence,ofwhichtheycompriseabout30to40percentbyvolume'buttendtobeclusteredinzones1to5 mthick.ThinsectionsofgrayWackesamplesshowthemtobecomposedofangularorsubroundeddetritalgrainsof1ithicfragments,quartz,moderatelyfreshplagioc:lase,andsome,generallyaltered,micainaveryfinegrainedmatrix;euhedralopaquegrains,probablyauthigenicpyrite,arepresentinmostthinsections.The'lithicfragmentsconsist>iifvariouspropor-tionsoflittlealtered,fine-grainedtoaphaniticvolcanicrocksofmafictointermediatecomposition;fine-grained,weaklyfoliatedlow-grademetamorphicrocks;chert;andsomefine-832 ·grainedunmetamorphosedsedimentaryrockspossiblyofintrafor-mationalorigin.Nocarbonategrainswereseen.Thematrixconstitutesabout20to30percentoftherockbyvolume,gen-erallycontainssomesecondarysericiteandchlorite,and,inthemoremetamorphosedrocks,biotiteandpossiblysomeamphibole.Analyses,ofpaleocurren.tfeatures,suchassma11-sca1ecross-stratification,foundinseveralexposuresnearthewest-ernedgeofthemappedarea,suggestthatdepositionalcurrentscamefromtheeastornortheast(A.ToOvenshine.ora1commun.•1974).Becausefossilsareextremelysparse.the.exactageoftheargilliteand1ithicgraywackesequenceisimperfectlyknown.Apoorspecimenof.Inoceramussp.ofCretaceousagewas.foundjustwestofthemapareabetweentheChulitnaandSusitnaRivers,andablockofBuchia-bearinglimestoneofValanginianagewasfoundinfloatnearCaribouPassintheHealyquadranglenorthofthemappedarea(D.L.Jones,oralcommun.,1978).NorthwesternTalkeetnaMountains1RvsMETABASALTANDSLATE(UpperTriassi.c)--Shallowwatermarine,interbeddedsequenceofamygdaloidalmetabasaltflowsandslate.!foundonlyintwoallochthonousklip~en!.nearthenorthwestcor-Snerofthemappedarea.Thesequenceistightlyfolded,along,withtheunderlyingCretaceous'rocks(unitKag),andisslightlymetamorphosedandunevenlysheared.Thebasaltandslateare833 intercalatedinapproximatelyequalproportionsinindividualunitsasmuchas15mthick.Themetabasaltisdarkgreenishgray,aphanitic,withnum-erousamygdules.Inthinsecj;ionstheprimarymineralsaretwinnedlabradorite,augite,andopaqueswhichprobablyare,forthemostpart,ilmenite.Secondarymineralsarechlorite(muchofitafterglass),epidote,clinozoisite,minorzoisite,calcite,leucoxene,veryminorsericite,veryfinegrainedfeltyamphibole(probablyuraliteafteraugite),andpossiblysomeverysubordinatealbite.Theoriginaltexturewasinter-sertalandsubophitic.}heamygdulesconsistofchlorite,zeo-lites(primarilyprehnite),quartz,·andsomefeldspar.The>slateisdarkgraytoblack.Thinsectionsshowthatsomeoftherockisfine-grainedmetasiltstone.Alloftherockscontainconsiderablecarbonaceousmaterialandsomeamountsoffine-grained,secondarysericite.Secondarybiotiteispre-sentinsomeoftheslates.Thesecondarymineralassemblagessuggestthat,inaddi-tiontodeutericalteration;themetabasaltandslatesequenceunderwentverylowgraderegionalmetamorphism.Themetabasaltandslate<sequencehasbeendatedintheHealyquadrangle,northofthe.presentmaparea,neartheEastForkoftheChulitnaRiverwhereD.L.JonesandN.J.Silberling,(oral.commun.,1977)foundupperNorianfossi1s>pfMonotissub-circularisandHeterostridiumsp.inslightlymetamorphosed834 argillaceousbeds:Thus,theageofthepresentsequenceissimilarto,andthe.1itho10gyofitsbasaltisidenticalto,thatoftheUpperTriassicmetabasa.lticsequence(unitlRv)inthenortheastTalkeetnaMountains.Thesetworocksequencesmayrepresentdifferentfacies,brought.closerbythrusting,ofthesamegeologicterrane.UpperChulitnaRiverareaDSgaGRAYWACKE,ARGILLITE,ANDSHALE(Snurian(?)toMiddle.Devonian)...-TheserocksoccurinanapparentlyallochthonoustectonicblockalongthewesternsideoftheChulitnaValleyandcom-priseapoorlyandinaccessiblyexposed,complexlydeformedandshearedsequence.Asaresult,the.sequenceispoorlyknown;itwasbrieflyexaminedinoutcroponlyalongLongCreek.Therethecomponentrocksaremediumtodarkgray,shearedandtightlyfoldedwithverticaldips,andoccurintercalatedinbedsasmuchas1 mthick.Thegraywackesarefinegrainedandappeartocontainsomevolcanogenicdetritus~Reconnaissancefield¢heckingbyD.L.Jones(oralcommun.,1977)furthertothenorthindicatesthatthesequencealsoincludessomechert,chertytuff,andphyllite.InLongCreek,twofossiliferouslimestonebeds(mappedanddescribedseparatelyasunitDSls)werefound;theyprob-ablyareindepositionalcontactwith,andthusdate,theenvel-opingunfossiliferousclasticrocks.Itispossible,however,thatsomeofthelimestonecontactsaretectonicandthatsome835 oftheenvelopingrocksaraofadifferentage.DSlsLIMESTONE(Silurian(?)toMiddleDevonian)--Massivetothick-bedded,medium-gray,fine-grained,moderatelyshearedbioclasticlimestone,probablyformedinpatchreefs.Itoccursatthreeseparatelocalities,inapparentdepositionalinterbedsasmuchas20mthick,withinfine-grainedclasticrocks(unitDSga).OfthetwolimestonebedsinLong.Creek,oneyieldedfossilsofDevonian,probablyMiddleDevonian,age,theotherofSilurianorDevonianage(map.nos.12,13,respectively,table3).Thefossilsalsoindicateshallowmarine.deposition.The.typesoffossilsandthecharacteristicsofthehost1imestonesandtheenvelopingclasticrockssuggestdepositionalonganancientcontinentalmargin.Thesecontinentalmargin-typedepositscropoutonlyabout6kmtothesoutheastofUpperDevonianophioliticrocks(unitDbs).thatareindicativeofoceanfloordeposition.Theproximityoftheserocksthatarecloseinagebutdifferentindepositionalenvironmentisadditionalevidenceforlarge-scaleAlpine-typeorogenicdeformation.insouth-centralAlaska(Csejtey.andothers,1977;Jonesandothers,1978).UpperChulitnaRiverareaJtaCRYSTALTUFF,ARGILLITE,CHERT,GRAYWACKE,ANDLIMESTONE(LowertoUpper.Jurassic)--Shallowtomoderatelydeepmarinesequence,tightlyfoldedandinternallyfaulted,atleastseveralthou-sandmetersthick.Theserocksareinterpretedtooccurina836 thrustblockalong,thewesternslopeoftheupperChulitnaValley.Four-fifthsofthesequenceiscomprisedofthemas-sive,cliff-formingcrystaltuff,whilethe.remainingrocksfOrmonlyanarrowoutcropbeltalongthewesternmarginofthemapunit.Thecontactbetweenthesetwogroupsofrocksmaybetectonic.Thecrystaltuffislighttodarkgray,locallywithagreenishtint,andweatherstovariousshadesofbrown.Itismassivewithobscurerhythmiclaminationsandthinbedding.Thetuffiscomposedofabundantsmallfeldsparcrystals(albite?)setinaveryfinegrainedmatrixof'devitrifiedvol-canicglassinwhichsomeshardscanberecognized.Sparsebutunidentifiablefragmentsofradiolariawerealsofound.Athininterbedofvolcaniclasticsandstoneyieldedthefollow-ingfossils:ArctoasterocerasjeletskyiFrebold,Paltechioceras(Orthechioceras?),'sp.,andWeylasp.(Jonesandothers,1978;fossillocalityinSilberlingandothers,1978).AccordingtoR.W.Imlay(writtencomnun.toD.L.Jones,1976),thesefos-silsindicatealateSinemurianage.Theargillite,chert,graywacke,andlimestoneoccurinter-beddedinvari.ousproportionsinindividualunitsasmuchasseveraltensofmetersthick.Theargilliteandchertaredarkgraytoblack;thegraywackeismediumtodarkgray,veryfine837 tomediumgrained,locallywithgradedbedding.Thelimestoneismediumgray,generallyphosphaticinpartsandy,locallyisassociatedwithlimysiltstoneandconglomerate;formsblocksandlenticularbedsasmuchasseveralkilometersinextent.SomeofthechertbedsyieldedradiolariaoflateKimmeridgianorearlyTithonianqge(LateJurassic),andatfivedifferentlocalities,thelimyrocksyieldedEarlyJurassicammonitefaunasofearlySinemurianage(Jonesandothers,1978;fossillocalitiesinSilberlingandothers,1978).ProbablytheseLowerandUpperJurassicrocksoriginallyformedacoherentstratigraphicsequencewhichsubsequentlywasdis-ruptedbyfoldingandfaulting.OhioCreekareaDsbSERPENTlNITE,BASALT,CHERT,ANDGABBRO(UpperDevon.ian)--Tecton-icallyintermixedassemblagethat·formsanortheast-trendingbeltofapparentthrustsliversinthenorthwestcornerofthemappedarea.Shearedserpentiniteisthemostabundantrocktype;theremainingcomponentrocksoccurinvariousproportionsinlenticularandpodiformtectonicblocksasmuchasseveralhundredmetersinextent.Manychertlensesoccurintercalatedwithbasaltflowswhichlocallyshowpoorlypreservedpillowstructures.Rocksofthismapunithavebeenpreviouslyde-scribedandinterpreted.asadismemberedophioliteassemblagebyClarkandothers(1972)andbyJonesandothers(1978).838 Theserpentiniteisdarkgraytodarkgreenishgray,alwayssheared,andconsistsalmostentirelyofclinochrysotileandlizarditewithsubordinatebrucite,talc~andchromite.Sparserelictolivine.crystalsandabastitetexturesuggestthattheserpentiniteoriginally.wasapyroxene-olivineultra-maficrock.Basaltisdarkgray,aphanitictofinegrainedwithafewphenocrysts,asmuchas4rominmaximumdimension,ofalteredplagioclase,pyroxene,andolivine.Therockislocallyvesic-ularoramygdaloidalandgenerallyisfragmental;manyofthefragmentsarepalagon.ite.Someofthevesiclesandamygdulesareconcentratedalongsphericalsurfaceswhichmaybe.partsofpillow$tructures.Depositionallyintercalatedmarinechertbedsfurtherindicatethatthebasaltswere.formedassubmarineflows.Thechertisgenerallyred,butreddish..brownandgreenish-grayvarietiesalsooccur.Itiscommonlyinbedsafewmilli-meterstoafewcentimetersinthickness,andcontainsabundantradiol,aria.Thegabbroismediumtodarkgreenishgray,finetocoarsegrained,andiscomposedofalteredplagioclase,pyroxene,olivine,andopaques.Compositionallayering,.interpretedtobecumulatetextures,iscommon,andthelayersrangeinthick-nessfroma.fewmillimeterstoafew·centimeters.Thebest839 exposedgabbrooccursinalensabout100mthickandabout1kmlongontheridgenorthoftheunnamednorthernbranchofShotgunCreek.Agedeterminationsofradiolariaandconodonts.inchertsamplesfromeightseparatelocalitiesreliablyindicateaLateDevonian(Famennian)agefortheophioliticrocks(Jonesandothers,1978;Silberlingandothers,1978).LongCreekarea1RrREDBEDS(probablyUpperTriassic)--Redsandstone,siltstone,argillite,andconglomeratesimilartotheredbedsofunitJTRrs.Clastsofgabbro,serpentinite,andfossiliferousPer-mian(?)1imestonearepresentintheserocksbuthavenotbeenidentifiedinrocksofunitJTRs.Also,athinconglomeratebedcontainingangularclastsofrhyoliteislocallypresentatthebase.TheserocksliewithdepositionalunconformityonlatePaleozoic,possiblyTriassic,andolderstratainthemaparea.Justnorthofthemaparea,theredbeds.restonLowerTriassic<limestone(Jonesandothers,1978).Theredbedslackfossilsand,therefore,havenotbeendated,buttheyareassumedtobeequivalentinagetotheUpperTriassicredbedsofunitJ1Rrs(Jonesandothers,1978).pzsvVOLCANOGENICANDSEDIMENTARYROCKS,UNDIVIDED(UpperDevoniantoLowerPermian)--Heterogeneousintercalatedsequenceofgreenish-graytoblacktuffaceouschert,lesseramountsofmaroonvolcanic840 mudstone,brecciacomposedlargelyofbasalticdetritus,lami-natedflyschlikegraywackeandshale,andlargelensesoflight-gray,thick-beddedlimestone.Fossilsfromthethick-beddedlimestoneareEarlyPermianinage;brachiopodsfromthecon-glomeratearealsoofEarlyPermianage;andfossilsfromthechertareDevonianandCarboniferous,butsomepoorlypreservedfossilsmaypossibly,thoughnot·likely,beasyoungasTriassic(Jonesandothers,1978).Thestratigraphicandstructuralrelationsbetweenthesediverserocksareobscuredbyabundantfoldsandpoorexposures.Adetaileddiscussionoftheserocks.isgivenbyJonesand'others(1978),andfossillocalitiesareshowninSilberlingandothers(1978).OhioCreekareaJ1RsREDANDBROWNSEDIMENTARYROCKSANDBASALT,UNDIVIDED(UpperTriassicandLowerJurassic).';'-Thebasalpartofthisunitcon-sistsofared-coloredsequenceofsandstone,siltstone,argil-lite,andconglomerate,withafewthininterbedsofbrownfos-siliferoussandstone,pinktolight-graydenseHmestone,andintercalatedmassivebasaltflows.Thisredbedsequencegradesupwardintohighlyfossiliferousbrownsandstone,whichinturngradesupwardintobrownish-graysiltstonewithyellowish-brownlimyconcretions.Clastsintheredbedsaredominantlybasaltgrainsand841 pebbleswhich.probably.werederivedfrombasaltflowsofunit1Rlbthat1iesunconformablybelow.theredbedsandfrommasslvebasa.ltflowswithintheredbedsequence.Subordinateamountsoftheclastsconsistofwhite,inpartfoliated,metaquartzitepebbles;flakesofwhitemicawhich,alongwiththemetaquartz-ite,musthaveb.eenderivedfromanunidentifiedsiliceousmetamorphicterrane;·andredradiolarianchertpebblesandgrains,whichprobab.lywerederivedfromtheophioliticrocksofunitDsb..Nootherclaststhatcanbe.identifiedascomingfromtheophioliticrockshavebeenrecognized.Fossilsfromthelimestoneandtheoverlyingbrownsand-stoneareofUpperTriassicage,andthosefromtheyellowish-brown1iroyconcretionsareofUpperTriassi.candLowerJuras-sicage~DetaileddiscussionsofboththeredandbrownbedsaregivenbyJonesandothers(l978),andfossillocalitiesareshowninSilberlingandothers(1978).lRlblIMESTONEANDBASALT(UpperTriassic}~-Interlayeredsequenceoflimestone,partlyrecrystallizedtomarble,andflowsofalteredamygdaloidalbasalt.Individualunitsareasmuch·asseveraltensofmetersthick.Theserocksoccurin..acomplexlyfaultedzoneinthenorthwestcornerofthemappedarea.Thelimestone)ismediumgray,massivetothickbedded,butlocallyithasalteredtofine-tomedium-grainedmarble.842 Itcontainssparsefragmentsofpoorlypreservedcoralsandthick-shelledMegalodontid(?)biv.alvesupto20cmin.Jength.AsinglespecimenofSpondglospirasp.,•inconjunctionwiththeMegalodontidbivalves,suggestsaNorianageforthesequence(Jonesandothers,1978;fossillocalitiesshownin5ilberlingandothers,1978).Theamygdaloidalbasaltisdarkgraytogreenishgray,aphanitic,withnumerousamygdu1es.Locally,itdisplayswe11-developedpillowstructures.Primaryrock-formingmineralsarefine-grainedlabradorite,titanium-richaugite,andopaquesinanoriginallyinterserta1orsubophitictexture.Theoriginalmineralassemblagehasbeenmoreorlessalteredtoanaggre-gateofchlorite(muchofitafterglass),epidote,calcite,sericite,andsomezeolite,probablyprehnite.Theamygdu1esconsistofchlorite,calcite,prehnite,andminorquartz.Mostofthesecondarymineralsareprobablytheresultofgeutericalteration,butsomemightbetheproductofverylow..graderegionalmetamorphism.fifteenchemicalanalysesofleastalteredbasaltsamplesindicatethatthe.basaltsaresomewhatlowinsilica(normalized5i02contentsaverage46.7percentbyweight,rangingfrom43.7to48.7percent),highinalkalis(normalizedNa20contentsaverage3.06percentbyweight,rang-ingfrom1.3to5.2percent;andnormalized~Ocontentsaver-age0.47weightpercent,rangingfrom0.07to1.5percent),843 andarehighintitanium(normalizedTi02contentsaverage3.8weightpercent,rangingfrom2.5to5.0percent).Thechemistryandmineralogysuggestthatthesebasaltshadalkali.affinitiespriortoalteration.Thefossilsandthelithologiesof.thel.imestonesandthebasaltsindicateshallowwatermarinedeposition.TheprobablealkaliaffinityofthebasaHsfurthersuggeststhattheyeitherwerepartofanoceanislandshieldvolcano,perhapsassociatedwithabarrierreef,orthattheywereformedonacontinentalmargin.UpperCopelandCreekareaKJsARGILLITE,CHERT,SANDSTONE,ANDLIMESTONE(UpperJurassicandLowerCretaceous)--ThisunitconsistsC?fdark-grayargillite,dark~grayto~reenish-graybedded~hert,thick-beddedsandstone,thin-beddedgraysandstone,andrarethinbedsofshellylime-stone.BothUpperJurassicandLowerCretaceousradiolariaswereobtainedfromthechert.Thethick-beddedsandstonecon-tainsabundantfragmentsofInoceramussp.ofHauteriviantoBarremianage,andsomeofthelimestonebedscontainBuch~asublaevisofValanginian,age.Someofthethin-beddedsandstonecontainsabundantdetritalwhitemicaandmaybeasyoungasAlbian(mid-Cretaceous).Thicknessesandthestratigraphicrelationswithintheserocksandwithadjacentrocksare-unknown844 becauseofcomplexfoldingandfaultingandpoorexposures.Amoredetaileddiscussionoftheserocksisgivenby·Jonesandothers(1978),andfossillocalitiesareshown.inSilberlingandothers(1978).845 StructureTherocksoftheTalkeetnaMountainsregionhaveundergonecomplexandintensethrusting,folding,faulting,shearing,anddifferentialupliftingwithassociatedregionalmetamorphismandplutonism.Atleastthreemajorperiodsofdeformationarerecognized:aperiodofintensemetamorphism,plutonism,andupliftinginthelateEarlytoMiddleJurassic,theplutonicphaseofwhichpersistedintoLateJurassic;amiddletoLateCretaceousalpine-typeorogeny,themostintenseandimpor-tantofthethree;and.aperiodofnormalandhigh-anglereversefaultingandminorfoldinginthemiddleTertiary,possiblyextendingi'ntotheQuaternary.MostofthestructuralfeaturesintheTalkeetnaMountainsregionaretheresultoftheCretaceousorogenywhichproducedapronouncednortheast-southwest-trendingstructuralgrainoftheregion.Theverg-enceofthisstructuralgrainissteeplytomoderatelytowardthenorth-west,butacrosstheChulitnaValleyinthenorthwestpartofthemaparea,itabruptlyreversestowardthesoutheastwithsteepattitudes.ThisCretaceousdeformationismostintenseinthecentralandnorthwest-ernpartofthemaparea,anditrapidlydecreasestowardthesoutheast.ThecomplexfaultpatternalongandnearthesouthernedgeoftheTal-keetnaMountainsispartofthelateCenozoicCastleMountain-Cariboufaultsystems,consistingchieflyofhigh-anglereverseandnormalfaultsofprobablylocalsignificance.EvidencefortheJurassicdeformationisprovidedbythepost-TalkeetnaFormationmajorunconformityandtheapparentlycoevalregional846 metamorphism,uptotheamphibolite.grade,andassociated.plutonic·rocks.(alltheLowertoMiddleJurassicmetamorphicandplutonicunits).ThehighercrustallevelmanifestationofthisJurassictectoni.ceventwasregionalupliftandconsequentrapiddenudationoftheintrudedepizonalplutons.Complexfoldingproducedby.theCretaceousorogenyisespeciallypronouncedintheareasnorthwestof.thebeltofJ.urassicmetamorphicandplutonicrocks.Thefoldsarechieflyct;ghtorisoclinal,withamp1i-tudesofseveralhundredtoseveralthousandmeters.The1i.mbsaregener-allyshearedoutorfaultedout.Asaresult,noindividualbedscanbetracedinthefieldformorethanafewkilometers.Manyofthelargefolds,especiallyintheCretaceousargillitesandgraywackes(unitKag),haveawell-developedaxialplaneslatycleavage.Fine-grajnedsericiteandbiotitearecommonlydevelopedalongthesecleavages.Thefoldingmusthavetakenplaceinseveralepisodesduringtheorogenybecausethrustfaultsnotonlytruncatefoldswithinboththeupper·andlowerplatesbut'-.arethemselvesfolded.ThefoldedthrustsareespeciallyevidentintheChulitnaareawhere,incontrasttotheregionalnorthwest vergence,theaxialplanesofthefoldssteeplydiptowardthenorthwest.MostprominentoftheCretaceousfaultsistheTa.lkeetnathrustwhichhasplacedPaleozoic,Triassic,and,locally,JurassicrocksoverCreta-ceoussedimentaryrocksacrossthewholemaparea.Thethrustisgener-allypoorlyexposedexceptneartheLowerTalkeetnaRiver.Thereit847 dipssteeplytowardthesoutheast.Anotherthrust,theonedelineatingtheklippeofrocksofunitTRvs,hasbeensharplyfolded.Thethrustsinthenorthwestcornerofthemapareaareverycomplex,alsohavebeenintenselyfolded,andaremorenumerousthancouldbeshownonthepresentmap.Anumberofthemarenotfullyunderstood,andthustheirsubsurfaceconfigurationisspeculative.Itiscertain;~owever,thatthesethrustsstackandbringtogetherontopoftheKagunitawidevarietyofrocksequencesofdifferentagesanddepositionalenvironment.Therootzoneofallthethrustsinthenorthwesthalfofthemapareaishereininter-pretedtobetheTalkeetnathrust(seecrosssection).AnotherCretaceousfeatureisanintenseshearzone,locallyasmuchas25kmwide,trendingacrosstheTalkeetnaMountains,parallelto,butsoutheastoftheTalkeetnathrust.Althoughnotsupportedbyanyevi-dence,itispossiblethattheshearzonemarksathrustzoneofsigni-ficantdisplacement.(Thecenterofthisshearzone.isshownasapostu-latedthrustonthemap.)Theqipsinthezonearegenerallysoutheasterly.Theshearingispenetrative,anditsmostspectacularresultisthatpor-tionsofalltheJurassicplutonicrocks,includingtheUpperJurassictrondhjemite,havebeentransformedtocataclasticgneiss.The75to61m.y.oldUpperCretaceousandlowerPaleocenetonalitepluton(unitTKt)truncatesthisshearzoneandisnotaffectedbyit.Theageofthe'Cretaceousorogeny,oratleastitsmajorphase,isratherwellbracketedbystratigraphicevidence.TheyoungestrocksinvolvedaretheCretaceousargillitesandgraywackes(unitKag)which848 areasyoungasValanginianorpossiblyevenyoungerinage.Amaximumupperagebracketis.prov.idedbythelate.Paleocenegraniticplutons,whicharestructurallyunaffected,andintrudethealreadyfoldedandfaultedcountryrocksinthenorthwesthalfof·themaparea.TwooftheCreta-ceousthrusts,includingtheTalkeetna.thrust,areactuallyintrudedbytheseplutons.Aslightlyolderupperagebracketisprovidedbythepre-viouslydiscussed61to75m.y.old.tonalitepluton(unitTKt)thatcutsandisunaffectedbytheprominentshearzoneinthecentralTalkeetnas.Thus,themostimportantorogenicdeformationintheTalkeetnaMountainsregionmus~havetakenplaceduringmiddletoLateCretaceoustime.Such.an.ageassignmentfortheor:ogenyisfurthersupportedbypotassium-argonagedeterminationsof88and91m.y.fortheserpentiniteprotrusionsinthesouthwestcornerofthemaparea(unitKum).ThedominantfeaturesofthemiddleTertiarytoQuaternarydeforma-tionarethealreadymentionedCastleMountain-Cariboufaultsystems,alongwhichthesouthernTalkeetnaMountains.havebeenupliftedlocallyasmuchas2,800m(Dettermanandothers,1976).TheonlyotherfeaturesfofthisCenozoicdeformationrecognizedwithinthemapareaarethetwopoorlyexposednormalfaultsintheChulitnaRivervalley(seemapand~crosssection).Inadditiontofieldobservations,theexistenceofthesefaultsis.alsosupportedbygravitydata(R.1.Morin,oralcommun.,1977;,N.B.Harris,oralcommun.,1977).NootherCenozoicfaults,oranyotherfaultswithobviousRecentmovement,wereobservedwithinthemaparea.849 TectonicsTheTalkeetnaMountainsandadjacentareasarepartofthedominantlyallochthonousterraneofsouthernAlaska.Previously,thisterranehasbeeninterpretedtohavedevelopedbyaccretionofallochthonousconti-nentalblockstotheancientNorthAITlerican>plate(RichterandJones,1973;Csejtey,1974)inlateMesozoic:time(Csejtey,.1976;Jonesandothers,..1978)Althoughtheexactn1.Jmberor.eventheextentoftheseallochthonousblocksisstillimperfectlyknown,theyappeartohave111ovednorthwardconsiderabledistancespriortotheircollisionwiththeNorthAmericanplate.ForoneoftheblocksineasternAlaska(WrangeHiaofJonesandothers,1977),aprobablenorthwardmovementofseveralthol.lsaridkilometershasbeerlshoWnbyHillhouse(1977).Theresultsofthepresentinvesti-gationsandthoseofJonesandothers(1978)notonlylendcredencetotheaccretioflaryconceptofsouthernAlaskabutalsoprovideadditionalevidenceforthetime,method,anddirectionofemplacemeflt.OneofthekeystothetectonichistoryoftheTalkeetnaMountainsregion,andtosouthernAlaskaaswell,istheoccurrenceofthetecton-icallyemplaceddiverserockpackagesintheChulitna>areainthenorth-westpart>ofthemaparea.MostoftheTriassicandJurassicrocksthere,especiallytheTriassicredbeds,donotoccuranywhereelseinAlaska,andthefossilfaunasandlithologiccharacteristicsoftheseMesozoicrocksstronglysuggestdepositioninwarmwateratlowpaleolatitudes(Jonesand"others,1978).Furthermore,thepre-middleCretaceousrocksabovetheTalkeetnathrust,abovetherootzoneoftheChulitnafaults,850 areeitherstructurallypartoftheallochthonousWrangellia.ter'raneofJones.andothers(l~77)or'belongto>adiff~r'entterranelyingsouth(thatisoutboard)qfWrangellia.Thus,allaV(iilablee'l.idenc.estronglyjndi-catestha.t,withtheexceptionofunitKag,allpre-middleCretaceousrocksofth~TalkeetnaMountainsregionareallochthonous,.and,afterthecollisionoftheirparentcontinental~lockswiththemiddleCreta-ceousNorthAmericancontinent,they'werethrustupon,that<isobductedontothernarginof'thecontinent.Inturn,themiddleCretaceousAlaskanmarginofthecontinentalNorthAmericanplateitse.lfprobablydevelopedbyistillearlieraccretions(D..LJones,or'a]commun.,1977).Thedis-tancetheallochthonousrocksof..the.TalkeetnaMountainsregiClnwerethrusted'beyond.theedgeofthec:ontinent<isnot.knqwnwithcertainty,butitmust.beatleastseveralhundredkilometers.Inaccordancewiththepresentobductionconcept,allthetectonicanddepositionalrockassemblagesnormallyassociatedwiththeconti.nentalupperplateofasubductingsystem,especjallytrenchdeposits.andvolcanicarc,rocks,arenowhiddenbytheoverthrustr'ockmassesPossiblythesmalltectonicsliver.ofUpperJurassicsedimentarY,andvolcanicrocks(un;tJs)alongtheTalkeetna.thrustistheonlyexposed·remnantofth.ese.hiddenassem-blages.As·shown.onthecrosssection,the..mainthrustalongwhichmost1110vementpresumablyoccurred.istheTalkeetnathrllst,andallotherthrustsnorthwes.t.ofit·areinter'p.retedtobe··sliversbelow.it.Thenortheast-southwest-trendingcompressionalstructuralfeatures,thatisthefoldingandthrusting,indicateageneralnorthwestward851 tectonictransport.ThisisfurthersupportedbythesharpcharacterofthesuturezoneineasternAlaska,alongwhichtheallochthonousY'ocksofSouthernAlaska,especiallytheWrangelliaterrane,areincontactwiththepre-middleCretaceousNorthAmericancontinent.ThissuturezoneineasternAlaskatrendsnorthwesterlyandisdevoidofthestruc-turalcomplexitiesoftheChulitnaarea.ThiSpartofthesuture,thepartsoutheastofPaxson,whichalsocoincideswith'themiddleTertiarytoHolocene>Denalifa.ult,isthusinterpretedtohavebeenatransformorawrenchfault.Incontrast,thegreatvarietyoftectonicallyjuxta-posedrockpackagesintheChulitnaareamaybetheresultof"bundozing"byalargecontinentalblockdriftingtowardthenorthwest.TheageofthisorogenicperiodofcontinentaVcollisionandsub-sequentobdlictionisindicatedbytheageofitsstructuralfeatlJres,whicharediscussedintheStructuresection,tobemiddletoLateCreta.,;ceous.Insummary,southernAlaskaisinterpretedtohavedevelopedgeologi-callybytheaccretionofanindeterminatenumberofnorthwestwarddrift-ingcontinentaTblockstotheNorthAmericancontinent.Aftercollision,atleastpartsoftheseblockswerethrustseveralhundredkilometersontotheNorthAmericancontinentinmiddletolateCretaceolistime.TheresultingstructuralfeaturesaretrulyalpineiricharacterandcomparefavorablywiththeclassicstructuresoftheAlpsintheirgrandeurandcomp1exity.852 AcorollaryofthepresenttectonicinterpretationofsouthernAlaskaisthatthepresentDenalifault,amiddleTertiaryandyoungerfeature(RichterandJones,1973),hasnotplayedasignificantroleinthetec-tonicdevelopmentofsouthernAlas.ka.Theeastern,.thati.sstrike-slipportionoftheDenalifault(Csejtey,1976).,maynothavemorethanafewtensofkilometersoftotalmovement.Aninteresting,butstillunresolved,tectonicproblemintheTal-keetnaMountainsregionistheshallowdepthofthepresentBenioffzone(Lahr,1975).The50-kmcontour(belowsealevel)fortheuppersurfaceoftheBenioffzonestrikesnortheasterlyandisapproximatelybelowtheJurassictrondhjemitebatholith(unitJtr).ThelOO-kIDcontour,alsostrikingnortheasterly,islocatedapproximatelyunderthenorthwestcornerorthemaparea.Accordingtoplatetectonicconcepts,inconjunctionwithasubductingsystem,thetopoftheundergoingslabshoulddescendatleast100kmbelowsealevelformagmageneration.ItappearsthatintheTalkeetnaMountainsregionthereisnotenoughthicknessofupperplateformagmatoform.FortheJurassicandolderigneousrockstheproblemcanbeexplainedthattheserocksareallochthonousandhavebeentecton-icall~5cutoffandtransportedawayfromtheirroots.However,fortheUpperCretaceousandyoungerigneousrocks,thismechanismcannotbeinvoked.Twoexplanationsarepossible.First,thatthepresentshallowpositionoftheBenioffzoneisarelativelyrecentphenomenonachievedbyshearingandcuttingawayofthebaseoftheupperplatebythedown-~goingslab.PerhapsthedevelopmentofthepresentDenalifaultand853 othermiddleTertiaryandyoungerfaultsofsouthernAlaskacouldberelatedtothisprocess.TheotherpossibilityisthatalltheUpperCretaceousandyoungerigneousrocksoftheTalkeetnaMountainsregionwereformedinath1nupperplatebyexceptionallyhighheat<flowofunknownoriginandmechanism(atectonicanatexisbyReedandLanphere,1974)•854 ReferencescitedAnderson,R.E.,1969,GeologyandgeochemistryoftheDianaLakesarea,westernTalkeetnaMountains,Ala.ska:AlaskaDivMinesandGeologyGeo1-Rept.34,27p.Barnes,F.F.,1962,GeologicmapoflowerMatanuskaValley,Alaska:U.S.Geo1-SurveyMisc.Geol.Inv.MapI-359.Berg,H.C..,Jones,D.L.,andRichter,D.H.,1972,Gravina-Nutzotinbelt--TectonicsignificanceofanupperMesozoicsedimentaryandvolcanicsequenceinsouthernandsoutheasternAlaska,inGeological.Surveyresearch1972:U.S.Geol.SurveyProf.Paper800~D,p.Dl-D24.Buddington,A.F.,1959,GraniteemplacementwithspecialreferencetoNorthAmerica:Geol.Soc~AmericaBull.,v.70,p.671-747.Clark,A.t.,.Clark,S.H.B.;andHawley,C.C.,1972,SignificanceofupperPaleozoicoceaniccrust·intheUpperChulitnadistrict,west-centralAlaskaRange,inGeologicalSurveyresearch1972:t·U.S.Geol.SurveyProf.Paper800-C,p.C95-C10l.Csejtey,Bela,Jr.,1974,ReconnaissancegeologicinvestigationsintheTalkeetnaMouritains;Alaska:U.S,Geo1-SurveyOpen-fileRept.74-147,48p.1976,TectonicimplicationsofalatePaleozoicvolcanicarcin--theTalkeetnaMountains,south-centralAlaska:Geology,v.4,p.49-52.855 856 Grantz,Arthur,1961a,Geologicmapofthe.northtwo-thirdsofAnchorage0-1quadrangle,Alaska:U.S.Geol.SurveyMisc.Geol.1nv.Map1-343,scale1:48,000.e__1961b,GeologicmapandcrosssectionsoftheAnchorage0-2quad-rangleand>northernmostpartoftheAnchorage0-3quadrangle,Alaska:U.S.Geol.SurveyMisc.Geol.1nv.Map1-342,scale1:48,000.1964,StratigraphicreconnaissanceoftheMatanuskaFormationin--theMatanuskaValley,Alaska:U.S.Geol.SurveyBull.1181-1,33p.Grantz,Arthur,Thomas,Herman;Stern,T.W.,andSheffey,N.B.,1963,Potassium-argonandlead-alphaagesforstratigraphicallybracketedplutonicrocksintheTalkeetnaMountains,Alaska,.in.U.S.Geo-logicalSurveyResearch1963:U.S.Geol.·SurveyProf.Paper475-B,p.B56-B59.Grantz,Arthur,andWolfe,J.A.,1961,AgeofArkoseRidgeFormation,south-centralAlaska:Am.Assoc.PetroleumGeologistsBull.,v.45,p.1762-1765.Hillhouse,J.W.,1977,PaleomagnetismoftheTriassicNikolaiGreen-stone,McCarthyquadrangle,Alaska:CanadianJour.EarthSci.,v.14,p.2578-2592.Jones,O.Le,1967,CretaceousammonitesfromthelowerpartoftheMatanuskaFormation,southernAlaska:U.S.Geol.SurveyProf.Paper547,49p.857 Jones,D.L.,Silberling,N.J."Csejtey,Bela,Jr.,Nelson,W.H.,andBlome,C.0.,1978,AgeandstructuralsignificanceoftheChulitnaophioliteandadjoiningrocks,south-centralAlaska:U.S.Geol.SurveyProf.Paper.(inpress).Jones,D.L.,Silberling,N.J.,andHillhouse,John,1977,.Wrangellia-..AdisplacedterraneinnorthwesternNorthAmerica:CanadianJour.EarthSci.,v.14,p.2565-2577.Lahr,J~C.,1975,DetailedseismicinvestigationofPacific-NorthAmericanplateinteractioninsouthernAlaska:NewYork.City,ColumbiaUniv.,Ph.D.thesis,141p.Ray,R~~.,1954rGeologyandaredepositsoftheWillowtreekminingdistrict,Alaska:U.S.Geol.SurveyBull.1004;86p.Reed,·B.L.,andLanphere,M..A.,1974,ChemicalvariationsacrosstheAlaska-AleutianRangebatholith:U.S.Geol.SurveyJour.Research,v.2,p.343-352.Richter,D>H.,andJones,D.L.,1973,StructureandstratigraphyofeasternAlaskaRange,Alaska:Am.Assoc.PetroleumGeologistsMem.19,p.408-420.Rose,A.W.,1967,GeologyofanareaontheupperTalkeetnaRiver,TalkeetnaMountainsquadrangle,Alaska:Alaska/Div.MinesandMineralsGeol.Rept.32,7p.ISilberling,N.J.,Jones,D.L.Csejtey,Bela,Jr.,andNelson?W.H.,1978,InterpretivebedrockgeologicmapofpartoftheUpperChulitnadistrict(HealyA-6quadrangle),AlaskaRange,Alaska:U.S.Geol.SurveyOpen-fileRept.858 Smith,T.E.,1974a,NewlydiscoveredTertiarysedimentarybasinnear-'-,--,....DenaIi:AlaskaDiv.Geo1.andGeophys.SurveysAnn~Rept.,1973,p.19.__1974b,RegionalgeologyoftheSusitna-MacLarenRiverarea:AlaskaDiv.Geol.andGeophys.SurveysAnn.Rept.,1973,p.3-6.Smith,T.E.,Bundtzen,T.K.,andTrible,T.C.,1975,Strataboundcopper-goldoccurrence,northernTalkeetnaMountains,Alaska:AlaskaDiv.Geol.andGeophys.SurveysMisc.Paper3,7p.Turner,D~.L.,andSmith,T.E.,1974,GeochronologyandgeneralizedgeologyofthecentralAlaskaRange,ClearwaterMountains,andnorthernTalkeetnaMountains:AlaskaDiv.Geol.andGeophys.SurveysOpen-fileRept.72,11p.Turner,F.J.,1968,Metamorphicpetrology,mineralogicalandfieldaspects:NewYork,McGraw-Hill,403p.859 Table l.--Continued "0 Calculaud "2°* ltQ,u Arrad "...*uCQ-l~:l~~ llinaul (walll.ht total (..UUOnG Ita I'LocoltlOQ IUClld.1l0.Ilocl<of y .....)Ilafaranca Lat.(II)LoDa.(W)typa dated pcrcant)Dlh Ilr.alll 11_102°12'~o"148"06-))"~9AG.lIZI>Quaru u ..t Ita ----111 Iv.coden and c1lorlt..otb..u (961) 1Il0t Ite ----lJ0;!:.6 OettorUUlI1 AOel oth..n (l90S) Blotlu ------161 Gunta ...d othere (961) Horobland"-----10>:!:.6 nllttertUn and oth.co 091>~) 18.6Z009'00"149°11'10"72ACyl17 Quartz Blotlte 9.])9.207 0.79 67.l;t2 Cujuy,1974 diorite Hornblend..1.042(2)9_869 0.77 64_6±.2 Cujuy,1974 19.102°08'46"149°18'10"7UCyl27 TonAlIt..Uotlt..9.10 9_0SS 0.87 66-4:t2 c.ajt..y,1974 Hornbleod..0.782(2)0.7111 0.78 64.1;t2 Caejtey.1974 CO 20.62°00'27"1480 S9'44"7lACy9~Graoodlorlte Blot Ite 9.1>4(2)8.70S 0.94 61.7:!:.1.9 Tbll rep"rt0-... 1.011 0.88 1I-l;t2_1 Tbla UPOrtHocnblend.tt 1.024(2) 21.02004'SI"1480 O$'S8"7lACy1l4 Trondhjellltt.Blot it.9.70(2)9.(4)0.88 67.8;t2.0 Tbla report 22_62°04'49"luolO-29"7lACyI1S Troodhj....lt.Muacovlctl 9.91(2)19.98 0.91 1lS;t4_0 this report 810tlt..9.02(2)14.16 0.97 99_4:t)~0 Thia report 21.62°04'111"IUo U'14"7lACy94 Toutlte Blotlte 9.40(2)8.S91 0.111 61.1:t1•9 Thla report Horoblend..0.970(Z)0.8669 0.11 6l.O;t1_1I Thla r.port 24.61o S9'18"149°15'00"]SACyllS Graoodiorlte MuscoVite 10.04(2)10.21 0.72 61.2:!:.2.0 ThLe report 81"tlta 9.08(2)9.02S 0.61 6S.0;t2.0 Thle caport 2S.61°SO')1"148o S9'18"7lACy97 Quartz IIl0tlt.8.10(2)8.S94 0.81 67 .4:t2.O Thla reportdiorite Hotnbi"od.0_918(2)0.9669 0.72 7l.8;t2.2 Thia report 20.61 o So'47"148°41'04"7UCy140 TrondhjclIlLt..HU8covlt.1.46(Z)0.680 0'1>9 129;tl;9 Tbia rep.>tt 21.61°S9'])"148°20'IS"7UCyl49 Graoodlorlt.IIl0tlt..8.01>(2)20.44 0.89 168:tS.0 This up..rt 28.61"49'30"14go 14'30"GO.\Ct40 T..o.ollt..ilocnolo!nJ..:0.7S9(2)0.11151 0.74 1l.t:t2 •2 Thla tapu.t See footnotes at end of table Table 1.··Conttnued 4O.u"4 Calculata4 It 1>.\u.u ••••••aehre.co lI.p LoculoD netd DO.lock lUoaral (V.{Sht red ~~("UUOD. fto.Lu.(II)I.oD&.(II)type ".ud perceDt)(18-\O",oles rlol,J ot yeara) 39.~loU'48"149°12'48"66AC.1l2 Too.Uto 'loUt.11.61(2)lI,lll 0.89 .9,O;t2.1 Thle report 1I0rDblDD".0.880(2)0.9415 0.86 n.:t:!:.l'2.2 Thle report 30,61 041'12"149°13'06"66ACa1l4 Ton.Uu ,toUt.1.22(2)1,624 0.91 U.O;t2.2 Thto report 1I0robl.....O,492;tO.003(l)0.n14 0.41 14.4:t2•2 Thb uport 31.61°49')8"1480 U'SO"14ACylSl TrOndhj ...tt.III1.co\l1&.10.58(2)2l.U 0.9S U 4:t4 •O ThU report )2 61 0U'03"14,oU'O."73 AC y17 Serp.DUnlte ACtlDoUto 0.032"0.04194 0.064 88.9.14•4 ThU repon )).61 0 U'OO"14,0)2')0"nACyU lIuacov1&.lIuacov1&.8.)4(2)1.189 O.llS S9.O;tI.1I Thla report oehbt 00 0-)4.61 o U'SO"14,026'05"13ACy21 lluacovtt.IIl1acovtu 8.86(2)8.SS4 0.89 65.9,t).0 Thle reportt.)oehlat )5.61 0 U'32"14,025'28"nACylla IIl1acovtt.lIuacovtt.9.10(2)1.9211 0.84 :It,6t,1.8 Thle report aclllU )6.61 0 U'O)"149"U')1"14ASjl00a S.rp.nUntt.AcUooUt.0.029"0.03891 0.10 9l.O;t4,6 Thto report )1.61 0 U'20"149°10'20"16ACyl9 lIer ••orpho....BloUt.1.018(2)1.061 0.4S 61.S,t2.4 Thla report auy"ock. °Heon .nd.vh.r.aor.tb.n tva ....lIr ...ent.IIer.road.,.t.nd.rd 4.vl.tloD.lIu.b.r at ••••ur •••Dt.I.ID p.r.Dtb••••; OOpot •••lu.d.tef8In.t by I.otop.dll~tlor.Pot.a.lu.detrb.lnrd bln!.l •••photo...trl for otb.r •••pl••• •001 ••0.S12XIO·y~~,I'..8~18XIO~yr·,18 ..4.963XIO-.yr-.-~/~.1.161110-Dol/.ol.Th.:!:.flsur •••r •••tl..t ••ot .o.lytlc.1 precl.lo".t tt.68 p.rc.Dt l.v.l of cODfld.DC ••All pr.vloll.ly publl.hed .ae.v.r.r.c.lcul.ted ualna tb•••d.coy CODat.Dt ••for thl0.r.port,-pnt•••IIID .n.l1.0~II.r.dooe by L.a.Schlock.r,C.It.Asb.t.,J.;C.Salth,H.C.Whltob ••d,S,T. lIell,.Dd H.L.Sl1b.r••D\.Dd .raoo ......ur ••eDt.IIer.dOD.by II.A.L.oph.r.,J.C.voo Ea.e",A.L.a.rry,1.·11.lIyor.,S.I. 51 ..,J.C.Saltb,.04 II.L.SI1b.raeD.- Table 2.--Lead-alpha age determinations on zircon from southeastern Part of Talkeetna Mountains quadrangle,Alaska 00 f'Jap Location Apparent0-w no.Lat.(N)Long.(W)Field no.Rock type age (m.y.)References 15 62°21 1 22 11 147°49 1 18 11 59AGzM58 Granodiorite 165+20 Grantz and others (1973) 16 6r21 117"147°49 1 12 11 59AGzM57 Granodiorite 125+15 Grantz and others (1973) l,jbl~J.--I.j~r:of 'o~:;'ll~,....ct .s",".·,•.:h:-.l ......1/unIt:.IUlll[~'l'(V,,ol~I J,k!l'SI:>J ill t~·rvrtlrt.t<.:st h .../r .o(flu..'f.,B..d.c..CI'.l }f;.;UJJr.uus !Ju..........'tyl..·...,..,OK' soutlu.wst conwr oi th ....IIt:..lly '/u....lr"'O':J'r;:,A1J.:>k..l Probably Paleo-A,K.Armstrong l.oic late Paleozoic,A.K.Arms tron9 probably Permian ""p nUlllber field ~J,~.~~it !!.~.e:.r: 1 HASt- lIv 63 2 76ACy- Pis 47 3 73ASt- PIs 1400 4 72ACy- PIs 15, 72ACy- 21 CO 0-5 73ASt- "'"PIs 309 6 74ACy- 1'1 s 7 7 75ANw- 1'1 s 10 8 74ACy- PI s 16 9 74ACy- 1'1 s 80 10 74ACy- 1'1 s 21 11 74ACy- 1'1 s 43 12 75AN,,- OS]s 75 13 75ANw- 051 s 76 Fossils H~lobi~cf.H.S_tric..SIIIith Crinoid colU1l11als 2 ell in dlallleter;echlno- dena and brachiopod debris,Indet. Echlnodena debris.Indet. Platycrlnltid.indet.(partial cup and coIUlll1al5). 110m coral,indet. fenestrate and raRose bryozoans,Indet. (abundant). ::aulc.:on.!tepoca1 sp. Rhynchone 1101d brachiopod.lndet. I'roductold br"chlopod (large,indeterminate). Spl ri ferold brach lopod (perhaps Spi ri t"rcll~)• Martinioid brdchiopod (pcrhdlls Ps ....udvuuccilJi.J). Phricodothyrld b"dchlopod frayments,indet. Punctate brachiopod (perhal"/lustL...ti~). Pelecypods,Indet.(several kinds). Pectenold pelecypods.indet. Crinoid colulIIIlals as much as 1.6 cm in diameter. Bryoloan,Indet. Brachiopod and coral fragments. Echlnodenll debris,indet. fenestrate and ralllose bryozoans,indet. Horn cora I,indet. Productoid b"achlopod (indeterminate). Crinoid columnals ]COlin diameter. Hoccidvllid1 sp. Spiriferold brachiopod. Crinoid col ..",a 1s as lIIuch as 1.5 Col In diameter. At·cU tretd sp. lIorrJdol1i..,sp. Spirjft,..oJ·c:dld SPo Echinoderm debris,Indet. Crinoid colu""als as much as 2.5 cm in didlllCter. Crinoid columnals as much as 1.5 cm in diameter. Crinoid colulI01al5 as much as 1 cm In diameter. --.---------------do---------------- Ihm.1rostl.dl.s?spo Mdsslve stromdtoporold,Indet. 1..f1Jt:<...·hi ..sp. f·.tvosi tl.!S Sil. _.__A.!le __ ldtest Kdmldn or [drly Norldn late Paleozoic ldte Pdleozolc. probably Permian Probdbly ldte Paleozoic late Paleozoic, possibly Pennian Early Permian Probably Paleo- zoic ------do------- ------do------- Devonian,prob- dhly Middle Devonian Silurian or Devonian Identiflcatioll and ~~~_~~O!.-=.~~~~~j~! K.H.~icho\s and ~.J.Silberllh9 D.l.Jones T.J.Dutro.Jr. A.K.Armstron9 J.T.Dutro.Jr. J.T.Dutro,Jr. A.K.Armstrong -------do------ ------·do------ II.A.01 ive,',Jr. -------do-------- _,,__~.!~r!:'l.;t:'. T.E..SIIi th..1'tt~1I COllJ1lUll ••1974. lhts report. T.E.SIIIlth.written COllllJUtl ••1974. Csejtey.1974. T.E.SIIIlth.wt;1I-uI cOl,mun.,1974. This report. -----00.---- Csejtey,\976. This report. -----00.---- --·--00.---- --·--00.---- -----00.--'- SECTIONENVIRONMENTALASSESSMENTTABLEOFCONTENTSItemPageINTRODUCTION866SUMMARY·OFCHANGES867ENVIRONMENTALSETTING868·Biologica1Characteristics868Mamma1s -..Moose.868CulturalCharacteristic~868ArcheologicalResources868ENVIRONMENTALIMPACTSOFTHEDEVILCANYON-WATANAHYDROPOWERPLAN870Mamma1s -Moose870ArcheologicalResources871Section404(b)Evaluation871ExecutiveOrder11988(FloodPlain)Evaluation871RELATIONSHIPOFTHEPROPOSEDDEVELOPMENTTOLANDUSEPLANS873LITERATURECITED875865 INTRODUCTIONInthealmost4yearssincetheoriginalenvironmentalassessment(EA)wasprepared,muchne\'i.informationhasbeenmadeavailablethroughtheeffortsofvariousFederalandStateagencies.Someoftheinfor-I11Cltionwouldresultinminor~angel)intheEAifincorporated.Theseminorchangeswouldnotsubstantiallyalterthereader'sperceptionoftheproposedprojectoritsenvironmentalimpacts.Such.1rformationhasthereforenotbeenincorporatedinthissupplement.Someofthenewinformation,however,couldsubstantiallyalteY'~hereader'sper-ceptionoftheproposedprojectoritsenyironmentalimpacts.Thistypeofnewinformationhasbeensummarizedin~hissupplemeDt.•I~shouldbenoted,however,thattheinformationobtaine.dtoda~eisonlypreliminaryandlacksneededdetailsandthatadditionalbiylogicalandsocialinformationremainstobegatheredinthefutureipordertocompleteanadequatearldmeaningfulassessmentofenvironmentalimpacts.866 SUMMARYOFCHANGESThereisnewbiologicalinformationrelatedtomoose.Ingeneral,mooseoccupytheupperSusitnaRiverbasintoagreaterdegreethanpreviouslythought.Also,archeologicalstudiesconducted-nyth(:Ala$kaDistricthaveresultedinarcheologicalfindsofpotentiallysignificantculturalvalue.As.aresultofthis.newinformation,thepotentialforadditionalenvi.ronmentalimpactsha$been.recognized,andtheimportanceofpre:-yiouslyidentifie~impacts.~asbeenreevaluated.Impactstomoose.willprobably.befarmoresignificantthanpreviouslybelieved.Impactsonarcheolog~calresourcescouldbepotentiallysignificant>ifnotproperly~mitigated.Adiscussionoftherecognition<;If.theneedforCiSection404(b)evaluationhasb~enadded>t().adclresst~erequirementsoftheFederalWaterPollution.ControlAct>andtheCleanWate~Act.An.evaluationoffloodplainconsiderationsasperExecutiveOrderl19§8hasalsobeenadded.Landusecisinaconstantstateofchangebecauseofthe.AlaskaNatiy~ClaimsSettlementAct,theFederalLandPolicyandManagementAct,andvariousotherregulationsrelated'towilderness.AshortupdateontheseIanduseconsiderationshasbeenadded.867 ENVIRONMENTALSETTINGBIOLOGICALCHARACTERISTICSMammals-MooseMooserangethroughouttheentireSusitnaRiveroasin,andtheirnumbersinthe>basinhavefluctuatedwidelysincetheearlY1900·s.Thepopulationreachedapeakintheearly1960·s,thenbeganadeclinethat>hascontinued>tothepresenttime•...F~c~orscontributingtothedeclinehaveincludedlossofproductivebrowsehabitatasaresultofeffectivefiresuppressionoverthepasttwodecades,.arapidincreaseinpredatorpopulationsfollowingcessationofcontroleffortsinthemid-19501s,aridanumberofseverewinterswithdeep~ccumDlati6nsofsnow.'ThepreliminarymovementdatagatheredthusfarbytheAlaskaDepartmentofFishandGame(ADF&G)indicatethatmoosefromseveralsurroundingareasmigrateacrossorutilizetheportion>oftheupperSusitnaRiverbasinadjacenttotheriverduringsomeportionoftheyear.ADF&Grecordedobservationsof2,037mooseduringthefall1977counts.Studiesindicatethatanobservergenerallyseesbetween43to68percentofthemooseinanareaduringanaerialsurvey.Using50percenttoextrapolateroughly,theresidentpopulationusin[theupperSusitnabasinprobablyfallsbetween4,000and5,000moose.Thisisasubstantialincreasewhencomparedwith1973figureswhichestimatedtheupperbasinpopulationatapproximately1,800animals.Thiswidediversityinpopulationestimatescanbeattributedtobetterresearchtechniquesandimprovedpopulationestimatingmethods.Presentinformationindicatesthatmoosedependheavilyupontheriverbottomandadjacentareasforwinterhabitatandcalvingareas,bothaboveandbelowtheWatanaandDevilCanyondamsites.Increasingsnowdepthsabovetimberlinetriggermoosemigrationstothewinteringareasinthelowlands.Additionalobservationsofmooseduringnormalandseverewinterconditionsarenecessarytodeterminetheimportanceoftheareaascriticalwinterrange.CULTURALCHARACTERISTICSArcheologicalResourcesAnarcheologicalreconnaissancewasconductedbytheCorpsofEngineersin1978forthepurposeofclearingspecificsiteswithintheprojectareasothatgeologicalinvestigationscouldbeconducted.FoursiteswerefoundintheWatanadamsiteareawhichrangeinage868 from3,700toJ2,000j'earsold.Thesesites,generallylocatedontopofsmallknolls,wereprobablyassociatedwiththehuntingactivitiesofprimitiveman.Nobasecampsorkillsiteswerefoundbuttheymustalsoexist.Thenumberofsitesfoundshowsthatthepotentialforotherfindsisextremelyhighandindicatesthatprehistoricuseoftheareaappearstohave.beenconsiderable.Atthepresenttime,thesitesfoundhavenotbeennominatedforinclusionontheNationalRegister.869 ENVIRONMENTALIMPACTSOFTHEDEVILCANYON-WATANAHYDROPOWERPLANMAMMALS.-MOOSEAccorci.ingtoADF&Gsurveyscopductedin1977,constructionoftheWatanadamwouldhaveahighlydetrimentaleffectonmoosepopulationsinthatinundationofthelower,spruce-coveredreachesoftheWatahaCreekvalley,whichareprobablycriticalmoosehabitat,wouldsub-stantiallyreducethecarryingcapacityofthearea.Inaddition,con-structionoftheDevilCanyondamwouldalsoadverselyimpactmoosepopulationsandsubstantiallyreducethecarryingcapacityofamajorportionoftheDevilCreekdrainages.TheDevilCanyonimpactsarenotexpectedtobeassignificantastheWatanaimpactsbecauseofthemarginalhabitatandlimitedmoosepopulationsintheDevilCanyonarea.Presentinformationindicatesmoosedependheavilyuponthe.riverbottomsandadjacentareasforwinterhabitatbothaboveandbelowtheWatanaandDevilCanyondamsites.LackofadequatewinteringareasinthelowerSusitnavalleybelowtheDevilCanyondamsitehasbeenamajorlimitingfactortomoosepopulationgrowthinthepast.Mostexisti~gwinterrangeisalongthemajorriv~rswhereperiodicfloodinghascausedrechannelingofthemainstream,allowingriparianwillowtocolonizethedrystreambeds.RegulatingtheflowofwaterfromthedamatDevilCanyonmayhaveahighlydetrimentaleffectongrowthofriparianvegetationdownstreamtothemouthoftheSusitna.Itispossiblethatmaintainingasteadyflowof8,000to10,000cubicfeetpersecondfromtheDevilCanyondamwouldeffectivelyprevent,thefloodingactivitythatpresentlyoccursperiodically.Thiscouldcreateashort-termabundanceofwinterrangealongtheriverbanksthatmightlast30ormoreyears.Thenetlong-termeffectcouldwellbeanegativeone,however,asitissuspectedthatthepresentnaturalfloodingactivityoftheSusitnaRiverproducesfavorableconditionsforbrowseproduction.Withouttheannualfloods,theseriparianareascouldbecomematurestandsofhardwoodsafter25or30yearsandpro-videlittleornowinterforage.Researchonriparianvegetationhabitattypesandassociatedmooseusagedownstreamofdamconstructionisessentialtodeterminepotentialimpactsonmoosepopulations.ConstructionoftheDevilCanyondamwouldfloodapproximately7,500acres.Theriverbanksalongthisportionoftheriveraregenerallysteepandprovidemarginalmoosehabitat.SincewaterlevelsintheDevilCanyonreservoirwillremainfdirlyconstant,lowmor-talityratesassociatedwithiceshelvingandsteepmudbankswouldbeexpected.870 ConstructionoftheWatanadamwouldresultinthefloodingofapproximately43,000acresalongWatanaCreekandtheSusitnaRiver.Approximately35,000acressustainmoderatetoheavyutilizationbymooseduringanaveragewinter.DatagatheredbyADF&GindicatethatmoosefromseveralsurroundingareasoftheSusithabasinmigrateacrossorutilizethisportionoftheriverduringsomeperiodoftheyear.Effectsof~theQconstruttionof~heW~t~n~d~mohmoosepopu)a-tionscouldbesubstantial.Theresident,nonmigratorysegmentofthepopulationcouldbeeliminated.Migratorymoosecouldalsobesub-stantiallyeffectedinthatthereservoircouldbeaneffectivebarriertomigrationsduringsomeseasons.Duetolargefluctuatingwaterlevels,iceshelvingandsteepmudbankscouldbeexpectedtocausehighmortalityamongmoose,especiallycalves.Thisdiscussionofi~pactsonmoosep6pulationswithintheupperSusitnaRiverbasinissubstantiallydifferentfr6mthe·discussioncontainedinitheii1976InterimFeasibilityReport,whichpredictedthattheproposedproject"wou1daffectonlyasmallpercentageoftheupperSusitnamOQsepopulation.IIThenewlygatheredinformationhasresultedirrthereevaluationofpreviouslyidentifiedimpactsandtherecognitionthatadditionalimpactspotentiallyexistwhichmaybei!1lPortant.ARCHEOLOGICALRESOURCESAnarcheologicalreconnaissanceconductedbytheCorpsofEngineersin1978resultedinthefindingofseveralpreviouslyunknownarcheo-logicalsitesintheWatanadamsitearea.Thisreconnaissanceindicatesthat~thepotentialforotherfindsisextremelyhigh.Intensivearcheo-logicalsurveyswillbeconductedduringtheprojectfeasibilityanalysistoconformwithculturalresourceregulations.Iftheprojectisdeterminedtobefeasible,aprogramwillbeconductedtosalvagearcheologicalsiteswhichwillbeimpactedbytheproject.SECTION404(b)EVALUATIONTodateaSection404(b)evaluation(DischargeofDredgedorFillMater.ia1sintoWatersoftheUnitedStates)undertheFederalWaterPollutionControlActof1972(PublicLaw92-500)asammendedhasnotbeenperformed.A404(b)evaluationwillbeperformedwithdatagatheredduringtheprojectfeasibilityanalysis.EXECUTIVEORDER11988(FLOODPLAIN)EVALUATIONIncompliancewithExecutiveOrder11988theitemsunderParagraph8ofGeneralProcedureshavebeenconsideredasfollows:871 1.The.projectisde$ignedtoimpound.waterbehindtwodamsinthenaturalchanneloftheriver.Thebasicconditionsofthishydro-powerprojectpresentnoeconomicallyfeasiblealternatives.2..Theconstructionoftheprojectwillcauseonlyminorinduceddevelopmentint.heimmediatearea.sincetheproduct(energy)willbetransmittedtoexistingpopulationcenters·far.removedfromtheprojectsite.3.Thenaturalandbeneficialvaluesofthefloodplainwillbedisruptedonlyatthesiteofthereservoirandpowerplant.Revegeta-tionprograms~willbeadoptedtorestoreslopesalongco~structionsitesandroadways.4.Astheprojectprogressesfromitsinitialphasetothedesignandconstructionphases,therewillbea.continuingevaluationanddialoguewithlocalinterestsandconcernedagencieswbowillhaveconstantinputtothe.$tudy..872 REtATIONSHIPOFTHEPROPOSEDDEVELOPMENTTOLANDUSEPLANSLandswithintheupperSusitnaRiverbasinareessentiallyinlargeblockownershipwiththemajorityunderthecontro.loftheDepartmentoftheInterior,BureauofLandManagement(BLM).Theselandsaregenerallyintheirnaturalstateandundevelopedwithimprovementsorlandaccessroutes.Airtransportationistheprimarymeansofaccesstoandwithinthearea.TherearesOmescatteredsmallparcelsoflandinprivateownershipashomesteadsitesorminingclaims.Manyoftheseprivateparcelshavenodevelopedoverlandaccess.Forthemostcpart,developmentintheareaisconcentratedalongtheestablishedtransportationroutessuchastheParksHighwayandtheAlaskaRailroadonthewestandtheDenaliHighwayonthenorth.fBecauseoftheabsenceofroadsandotherdevelopmentinthebasin,theareaissubjecttoSection603ofP.L.94-579,liTheFederalLandPolicyandManagementActof1976."ThissectionprovidesfortheprotectionandstudybyBLMofroadlessareasofpubliclandcontaining5,000ormoreacres.Theintentistheprotectionofpotentialwilder-nessareavaluespendingadeterminationoftheultimateclassificationanduseofsuchlands•.Duringtheallotted15yearstudyperionyuseofthelandsissubjecttoBLMauthorizationandmustbecoted1I•••inamannersoasnottoimpairthesuitabilityofsuchareforpreservationaswilderness..•1I•Consequently,anydevelopmentorcon-structionintheareawouldbeprecludedpendingadeterminationandclassificationbyBLM.Mostofthepubliclandsinthebasinhavebeenselected'byNativecorporationsundertheAlaskaNativeClaimsSettlementAct(ANCSA),asamendedof18December1971.TheseselectedlandsremainunderthejurisdictionofBLMpendingfinalconveyanceoffeesimpletitletothevariousNativecorporations.AnyuseoftheselandspriortoconveyanceoftitleissubjecttospecificpermissionfromBLMwiththeconcurrenceofthevariousconcernedNativegroups.Thegrosslandarearequired(landswhichmustbeacquired)forcontainmentoftheproposedDevilCanyonandWatanareservoirsisapproximately157,440acres.Ofthisland,67,200acresaretobeconveyedtotheCookInletRegion,Incorporated(CIRI)forlaterreconveyancetovariousvillagecorporations.Thistransferoflandsisdirectedbya1976amendmenttoANCSA,P.L.94-456andwillincludeboththesurfaceandsubsurfaceinterests.ThistransferalsoincludeslandswithinPowerSiteClassificationNo.443whichwasestablishedin1958forpotentialfuturedevelopmentoftheSusitnaRiverforhydro-electricpowerproduction.873 InadditiontothelandsdiscussedalJove,aslT1anyas53,}60acreshavebeenselectedforconveyancetosatisfyanydeficienciesthat·mayexistintotalacreageentitlementsunderANCSA.These"deficiency"selectionsinthe>areahaveaselectionpriority>of.nine(9).and,.;nall.probabi1ity,w.ill.notbeconveyedtoCIRlonbehalf.ofth~vjllagecorporations.The!ielandshave,however,beenoverselectedby.CIRIforits·ownbenef.itandcouldconceivably>beconveyedtoCIRl.Aportionof.these.landssouthoftheSusitnaRiver(24,6~6acres).has.beenmadeava·ilableforselecttonbytheState.ofAlaskapursuanttotheagreementtit.led"Termsand)Conditions.forLandConsoli.dation..andManagementinthe..CookInletArea"(CookInlet.LandSwap.Agreement).TheState's>righttoselecttheselandsforconveyanceissuperior'tothat.ofCIRTbutisinferiorto.va,.1idvillage.corporationselect;ionsSincethevillagecorporationselections~reprioritynine(9)jtisprobablethattheStatecouldreceivethetitletothelands..Theremainingareawithintheproposedreservoirboundaries.(36,480acres).tscontrolled.byBLMandhasbeenwithdrawnfrom·appropriationforeitherstudyandclassificationorTor.selectionbyCIRIasa"defici.ency"selectionarea.Again,this"deficiency"selectionisanexcess,oroverselection,tomakeil.ands.availableforsatisfactionoftotalacreage·entitlements.Conveyance.ofanyportion;ofsuchselectedlandsis.limitedto.fulfillmentofacr~ageentitlementsandisindeterminableatthistime.Asdiscussedabove,the.StateofAlaskawillhavearightto.selectaportionofthisareasouthoftheSusitnaRiver(5,120acres),.andsuchaselectionwouldbesuperiortothatofCIRL874 LITERATURECITEDBacon,Glenn.ArcheologyintheUpperSusitnaRiverBasin1978.ArmyCorpsofEngineers,AlaskaDistrict,1978.Riis~JamesC.,andNancyV.Friese."FisheriesandHabitatInvesti-.gationsoftheSusitnaRiver--APreliminaryStudyofPotentialImpactsoftheDevilsCanyonandWatanaHydroelectricProjects,"Preliminar~EnvironmentalAssessmentofHydroelectricDevelopmentontheSusltnaRiver.~laskaDepartmentofFishandGamefortheU.S.Fi~handWildlifeService,Ma~ch1978.Taylor,KentonP.andWarrenB.Ballard."MooseMovementsandHabitatUseAlongtheUpperSusitnaRiver--APreliminaryStudyofPetentialImpactoftheDevilsCanyonHydro~lectricProject,"PreliminaryEnvironmentalAssessmentofHydroelectricDevelopmentontheSusitnaRiver.AlaskaDepartmentofFishandGamefortheU.S.FishandWildlifeService,March1978.U.S.ArmyCorpsofEngineers,Alas~aDistrict.PlanofStudyforSusitnaHydropowerFeasibilityAnalysis.PreparedfortheStateofAlaska,June1978.875 SECTIONFRECREATIONALASSESSMENTNoneoftheOMScommentsweredirectedattherecreationalaspectsoftheproject.Therefore,noadditionalrecreationstudieswereundertaken.o876