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HomeMy WebLinkAboutSUS269DEVELOPMENT SELECTION REPORT TASK 6 - DESIGN DEVELOPMENT DECEMBER 19811 POWER APPENDIX C -ALTERNATIVE HYDRO GENERATING SOURCES The analysis of alternative sites for non-Susitna hydropower development follow- ed the plan formulation and selection methodology discussed in Section 1.4 of Volume I and Appendix A. The general application of the five-step methodology (Figure A.1) for the selection of non-Susitna plans is presented in Section 6 of this report. Additional data and explanation of the selection process are pre- sented in more detail in this Appendix. The first step in the plan formulation and selection process is to define the overall objective of the exercise. For step 2 of the process, all feasible sites are identified for inclusion into the subsequent screening process. The screening process (step 3) eliminates those sites which do not meet the screen- ing criteria and yields candidates which could be refined to include into the formulation of Railbelt generation plans (step 4). Details of each of the above planning steps are given below. The objective of the process is to determine the optimum Railbelt generation plan which incorpor- ates the proposed non-Susitna hydroelectric alternatives. C.l -Assessment of Hydro Alternatives Numerous studies of hydroelectric potential in Alaska have been undertaken. These date as far back as 1947, and were performed by various agencies including the then Federal Power Commission, the u.s. Army Corps of Engineers (COE), the United States Bureau of Reclamation (USBR), the United States Geological Survey (USGS) and the State of Alaska. A significant amount of the identified poten- tial is located in the Railbelt region, including several sites in the Susitna River Basin. Review of the above studies and in particular the inventories of potential sites published in the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers National Hydropower Study (1) and the Alaska Power Administration (APAd) 11 Hydroelectric Alternatives for the Alaska·Railbelt 11 (2) identified a total of 91 potential sites (Figure C.1). All of these sites are technically feasible and, under step 2 of the planning process, were identified for inclusion in the subsequent screening exercise. C.2 - Screening of Candidate Sites The screening process for this analysis required the application of four itera- tions with progressively more stringent criteria. (a) First Iteration The first screen or iteration determined which sites were technically infeasible or not economically viable and rejected these sites. The stan- dard for economic viability in this iteration was defined as energy production cost less than 50 mills per kWh, based on economic parameters. This value for energy production cost was considered to be a reasonable upper limit consistent with Susitna Basin alternatives for this phase of the selection process. C-1 Cost data provided in published COE and APAd reports were updated to repre- sent the current level of economics in hydropower development for a total of 91 sites inventoried within the Railbelt Region. As discussed in Section 8, annual costs were derived on the basis of a 3 percent cost of money, net of general inflation. Construction costs were developed by 1naking uniform the field costs provided in the COE and APAd reports. This was necessary as the two agencies used different location factors in their estimates, to account for higher price levels in Alaska. Contingencies of 20 percent and engineering-administration adjustments of 12 to 14 percent were added to finally yield the project cost. Project costs were subse- quently updated to a July 1, 1980 price level based on the 11 Handy-Whitman Cost Index for Hydropower Production in the Pacific Northwest" (3). Using updated project costs as well as a series of plant size-dependent economic factors preliminarily selected for the rough economic screening, the average annual production costs in mills/kWh were estimated for the 91 sites. Typical factors considered were construction period, annual invest- ment carrying charges, and operation and maintenance expenditures. Plant capacity factors ranged from 50 to 60 percent, based on source data. A range of average annual production costs resulted for most of the sites, similar to those initially estimated by both the COE and the APAd. As a result of this screen, 26 sites were eliminated from the planning pro- cess. The sites rejected are given in Table C.1. The remaining 65 sites were subjected to a second iteration of screening which included additional criteria on environmental acceptability. The location of the 65 remaining sites are given in Figure C.1. (b) Second Iteration The inclusion of environmental criteria into the planning process required a significant data survey to obtain information on the location of existing and published sources of environmental data. The 27 reference sources used in preparing the evaluation matrix include publications and maps for which data were collected, prepared and/or adopted by the following agencies: -University of Alaska, Arctic Environmental Information and Data Center -Alaska Department of Fish and Game -Alaska Division of Parks -National Park Service -Bureau of Land Management, u.s. Department of Interior -U.S. Geological Survey -Alaska District Corps of Engineers -Joint Federal State Land Use Planning Commission C-2 In addition, representatives of state and federal agencies (including AEIDC, ADNR, ADF&G, ADEC and Alaska Power Administration) were interviewed ta provide subjective input to the planning process. The basic data collected identified two levels of detail of environmental screening. The purpose of the first level of screening was to eliminate those sites which were unquestionably unacceptable from an environmental standpoint. Rejection of sites occurred if: (i) They would cause significant impacts within the boundaries of an existing National Park or a proclaimed National Monument area; (ii) They were located on a river in which: -Anadromous fish are known to exist; -The annual passage of fish at the site exceeds 50,000; -Upstream of the site, a confluence with a tributary occurs in which a major spawning or fishing area is located. The definition of the above exclusion criteria was made only after a review of the possible impacts of hydropower development on the natural environ- ment and the effects of land issues on particular site development. The first exclusion criterion reflects the existing restrictions to the development of hydropower in certain classified land areas. Information regarding the interpretations of land use regulations was gathered in dis- cussions with state and federal officials, including representatives of the Federal Regulatory Commission (FERC) who are responsible for the licensing of hydropower projects affecting federal lands. Many land classifications were identified, such as national and state parks, forests, game refuge or habitat areas, wild and scenic rivers, and wilderness areas. Additionally, the land ownership question in Alaska was further complicated by federal land. withdrawals (under the Federal Land Policy and Management Act) and Administration National Monument Proclamations. After the various restrictions were evaluated, it became clear that the only lands where hydropower development is strictly prohibited are National Parks and Monuments, Wild and Scenic Rivers and National Wilderness Areas. At this time, many lands were still protected by the National Monument Proclamations, pending the passage of the Alaska National Interest Lands Bill in Congress. Other land classifications allow for monitoring and regulation of development by the controlling agency and, in some cases, veto power if the development is not consistent with the purposes of the land designation. Note that no sites coincided with either Wild and Scenic Rivers or Wilderness Areas; these were not included as exclusion criteria. At the time of evaluation, the Alaska Lands Bill had not yet been passed by the U.S. Congress. Thus, the determination of impacts of restricted land use was based on the existing legislation, which included the C-3 Administration National Monument Proclamation of December 1, 1978, and the Federal Land Policy and Management Act of 1976. The Lands Bill became Public Law 96-487 on December 2, 1980. The resulting land status changes have been evaluated to the extent that they affected the chosen hydropower sites. Many significant sensitivities were identified in the Alaskan setting. However, only one of these was determined to be so highly sensitive to hydro development and so important to the state that it alone could pro- hibit the development of a site. Thus, sites located on a stretch of river used as a major artery for anadromous fish passage were excluded. It was believed that the potential for mitigation of adverse affects of such sites was limited, and that even a relatively small percentage loss of fish could have a devastating result for the fishery. Of the 65 sites remaining after the preliminary economic screening, 19 sites were unable to meet the requirements set for the second screen. These sites are given in Table C.l, and the reason for their rejection in Table C.2 (c) Third Iteration The reduction in the number of sites to 46 allowed a reasonable reassess- ment of the capital and energy production costs for each of the remaining sites to be made. Adjustments were made to take into account transmission line costs necessary to link each site to the proposed Anchorage-Fairbanks intertie. This iteration resulted in the rejection of 18 sites based on judgemental elimination of the more obvious uneconomic or less environmentally acceptable sites. The remaining 28 sites were subjected to a fourth iteration which entailed a more detailed numerical environmental assessment. The 18 sites rejected in the third iteration are given in Table C.1. (d) Fourth Iteration To facilitate analysis, the sites were categorized into sizes as follows: -Less than 25 MW: 5 sites; -25 MW to 100 MW: 15 sites -Greater than 100 MW: 8 sites. The fourth and final screen was performed using detailed numerical environ- mental assessment which considered eight criteria chosen to represent the sensitivity of the natural and human environments at each of the sites. Three main aspects were incorporated into the sel ion of these criteria: -Criteria must represent the important components of the environmental setting that may be impacted by the development of a hydroelectric pro- ject. -Criteria must include components th represent existing and potential land use and management plans. C-4 -Information relating to these criteria must be reasonably available and easily incorporated into a screening/evaluation process. The eight evaluation criteria are listed in Table C.3. Each criterion was defined to identify the objectives used for investigating that criterion. Following the selection of the evaluation criteria, it was necessary to define the significance of a variety of factors within each set of criter- ia. Under the category of anadromous fisheries, for example, it is neces- sary to differentiate between a site which would adversely affect a major spawning area and a site which is used only for passage by a relatively small number of fish. For each of the evaluation criteria, therefore, a system of sensitivity scaling was used to rate the relative sensitivity of each site. A letter (A, B, Cor D) was assigned to each site for each of the eight criteria to represent this sensitivity. The scale rating system is defined in Table C.4. Each evaluation criterion has a definitive significance to the Alaskan environment and degree of sensitivity to impact. A discussion of each criterion is appropriate to determine the importance of that criterion in the continued study or rejection of the hydroelectric sites. (i) Big Game The presence of big game is especially significant in the Alaskan environment. Special protection and management techniques are em- ployed to ensure propagation of the species and continued abundance for subsistance and commercial harvesting as well as recreation uses. This criterion has a very high importance in the life style and eco- nomic well being of the Alaskan people. Site specific information was extracted from a series of map overlays which identified types of big game habitats with varying importance to survival of the species considered. For example, a map may have a large area designated as "moose present" or "moose distribution". Within that large distribution area, smaller areas were identified as seasonal concentration areas or calving areas. These smaller areas were considered to be more sensitive to development than the large areas because they satisfy specific needs within the life cycle of the moose, and because the availability of appropriate land is limited. Of the references inspected, "Alaska•s Wildlife Atlas, Vol 1" was regarded as the most authoritative source, and took precedence in the case of conflicting information. References "Musk Oxen and Caribou" and ••Large Mammals" generally added to the body of knowledge. Refer- ences "Bear Denning and Goat Range", "Dall Sheep, Deer and Moose Con- centrations" and "Distribution of Caribou Herds in Alaska" were reviewed, but had little input which corresponded with the sites surveyed. C-5 (ii) Argicultural Potential Agricultural potential was assigned a relatively high importance. This is because it is an indicaton of the potential for the self suffi- ciency of any area, and the avenues towards self sufficiency require special consideration in the economic climate of Alaska. The best agricultural resources identified in the Railbelt region are located in the lowlands adjacent to the lower Susitna basin. These include the Yentna/Skwentna system and the northern and eastern shores of Cook Inlet as well as the Tanana and Nenana River valleys and the upper part of the Copper River basin. The latter was identified as climatically marginal. The amount of land identified with suitable farming soils is rela- tively small and was assigned a higher sensitivity than land with marginal farming soils. Lands with no suitable soils identified were assigned the lowest sensitivity. Map reference "Cultivatable Soils" and ''Alaska Resources Inventory, Agricultural and Range Resources" were used to identify lands with agricultural potential in the Railbelt. (iii) Waterfowl, Raptors and Endangered Species The Railbelt provides extensive habitats for many species of waterfowl as well as habitats for some threatened and endangered bird species. The protection of these habitats in the face of development is a con- cern of many environmentalists and ecologists. As an evaluation cri- terion, this was considered to be slightly less important than the big game or fisheries criteria because of the combined ecological and economic importance of those two criteria. In evaluating the sensitivity of the various factors providing input to these criteria, three reference maps were surveyed: "Alaska's Wildlife Atlas Vol II" provided information regarding waterfowl and seabirds; "Migratory Birds: Seabirds, Raptors & Endangered Species" had information regarding seabirds and raptor habitats; and "Birds" identified endangered and threatened species habitats. Generally, raptor and endangered species' habitats were considered most sensitive. High density and key waterfowl areas were considered to be moderately sensitive. (iv) Anadromous Fisheries The anadromous fisheries resource is an essential component of Alaska's economy and life style as well as its natural environment. It is the single resource most affected by hydropower development due to the nature of the development itself which not only hampers the passage of fish but may also alter flow conditions essential to the anadromous life cycle. Because of its sensitivity to hydropower development, the anadromous fisheries resource was very highly considered in this evaluation. The comparative sensitivity of the sites was based on the number of species identified as present or spawning in the vicinity. Particular emphasis was placed on the river upstream of proposed dam sites and, when information was available, on the estimated number of fish iden- tified passing certain points. Some sites were excluded in prelimin- ary screening because they were identified as major locations for fish passage (greater than 50,000 annually.) The most sensitive of the remaining sites were those with the largest number of species present and with the most extensive spawning areas upsteam of the dam site. Lowest sensitivity corresponded with the absence of anadromous fish in the area. Several compiled references were available for determining the extent of fisheries' presence at each of the hydro sites considered. The most comprehensive reference was "Alaska Fisheries Atlas" Volume I, which indicated on USGS topographical maps the presence of each of five species of salmon and their spawning areas for all areas of interest. Two map overlays were used to determine more generally the presence of anadromous fisheries: 11 FisherieS 11 and "Marine Mammals and Fish". This information was also checked against the Ch2M-Hill report 11 Review of South Central Alaska Hydropower Potential 11 for some of the sites. (v) Wilderness Consideration National and state interest in the preservation of natural aesthetic qualities in Alaska continue to be the impetus for studies and land use legislation. Substantial amounts of land have been identified and protected under state and federal law. However, other lands have been identified for their unique wilderness, scenic, natural and primitive qualities but have received no particular protection. This factor was considered to the extent that any of the potential hydro sites would impact the aesthetic quality of these unprotected lands. Two map overlays prepared by the Joint Federal State Land Use Planning Commission were used: "Selected Primitive Areas in Alaska for Consid- eration for Wilderness Designation 11 and "Scenic, Natural and Primitive Values 11 • (vi) Cultural, Recreation and Scientific features These criteria reflect the importance placed on the historical, cul- tural and recreational values of certain landmarks, as well as the values of scientific resources at identified locations. Areas of varying significance were identified by the reference sources and com- parative sensitivities were assigned accordingly if potential hydro sites corresponded with identified areas. Three map overlays were used to substantiate these criteria: 11 Recrea- tion, Cultural and Scientific Features 11 , "Nationally Significant Cul- tural Features 11 , and "Proposed Ecological Reserve System for Alaska 11 • C-7 (vii) Restricted Land Use A significant amount of land in Alaska is classified as national or state parks, wildlife areas, monuments, etc. These classifications afford varying levels of protection from complete exclusion of any development activity to a monitoring or regulation of development occurring on the protected lands. Using this criterion as an indica- tion of the legal restrictions that might hinder the implementation of a hydroelectric development, the comparative sensitivities were defined. If a potential hydro site was located within a national park or monument, the site was excluded during preliminary screening from further consideration. Other land classifications were less severe. This criterion, although it may be more of an indication of institutional factors than the actual sensitivity of the site area, represents real issues that would affect development. Land status was identified using maps and reference materials prepared by state sources: "Generalized State Land Activity", 11 Game Refuges, Critical Habitat Areas and Sanctuaries", and federal sources, USGS Alaska Map E and Quadrangle Maps, 11 Administration National Monument Proclamation and FLDMA Withdrawals", 11 Alaska Illustrated Land Status 11 • It should be noted that this evaluation was performed before the passing of the Alaska National Interest Lands Conservation Act (PL 96-487). The results of the application of this criterion were subsequently compared against the mandates of this federal act. No substantial effects on the screening results were found. (viii) Access The main purpose of this criterion was to indicate how the potential hydro sites fit into the existing infrastructure. In other words, the concern was to identify those areas which would be most and least affected or changed by the introduction of roads, transmission lines and other facilities. The highest sensitivity was assigned to the sites which were the farthest from the existing infrastructure, indicating areas with the greatest potential for impacts. Lower sensitivities were assigned to areas where roads, transmission lines and settlements already exist. Although this was an important criterion to consider, it was not given a high weighting when compared to other criteria due to the subjective nature of the interpretations made. It could be, for example, that an existing small settlement would be more adamantly opposed to develop- ment in an area where nobody has presently settled. Information was garnered from notes in 11 Review of the Southcentral Hydropower Potential .. and road maps of the area. (ix) Summary of Criteria Weighting The first four criteria-big game, agricultural potential, birds and anadromous fisheries, were chosen to represent the most significant features of the natural environment. These resources require C-8 protection and careful management due to their position in the Alaskan environment, their roles in the existing patterns of life of the state residents and their importance in the future growth and economic inde- pendence of the state. These four criteria were viewed as more impor- tant than the following four criteria due to their quantifiable and significant position in the lives of the Alaskan people. The remaining four criteria-wilderness, cultural, recreation and scientific features, restricted land use, and access were chosen to represent the institutional factors to be considered in determining any future land use. These are special features which have been iden- tified or protected by governmental laws or programs and may have varying degrees of protected status, or the criteria represent exist- ing land status which may be subject to change by the potential devel- opments. It must be noted that the interpretations placed on these criteria are subjective, although care was taken to ensure that the many viewpoints which make up Alaska's sociopolitical climate were represented in the evaluation. The latter four criteria were considered less important in the comparative weighting of criteria mainly because of the subjec- tive nature and lower degree of reliability of the facts collected. Data relating to each of these criteria were complied separately and recorded for each site, forming a data-base matrix. Then, based on these data, a system of sensitivity scaling was developed to represent the relative sensitivity of each environmental resource (by criterion) at each site. The scale ratings used are summarized below. A detailed explanation of the scale rating may be found in Table C.5. A-Exclusion (used for sites excluded in preliminary screening) B -High Sensitivity C -Moderate Sensitivity D -Low Sensitivity The scale ratings for the criteria at each site were recorded in the evaluation matrix. Site evaluations of the 28 sites under considera- tion are given in Table C.6. Preliminary data regarding technical factors were also recorded for each potential development. Parameters included installed capacity, development type (dam or diversion), dam height, and new land flooded by impoundment. The complete evaluation matrix may be found in Table C.7. In this manner, the environmental data were reduced to a form from which a relative comparison of sites could be made. The comparison was carried out by means of a ranking process. C-9 (x) Rank Weighting and Scoring For the purpose of evaluating the environmental criteria, the follow- ing relative weights were assigned to the criteria. A higher value · indicates greater importance or sensitivity than a lower value. Big Game 8 Agricultural Potential 7 Birds 8 Anadromous Fisheries 10 Wilderness Values 4 Cultural Values 4 Land Use 5 Access 4 The criteria weights for the first four criteria were then adjusted down, depending on related technical factors of the development scheme. Dam height was assumed to be the factor having the greatest impact on anadromous fisheries. All the sites were ranked in terms of their dam heights as follows: -Height ~150 1 : Rank + -Height 150 1 -350 1 : Rank++ -Height ~350 1 : Rank+++ A dam with the lowest height ranking (+) would have least impact, and would therefore result in the fisheries weight to be adjusted down by two points. Similarly, a dam of height (++) was adjusted down by one point. A dam of height (+++) would have the greatest impact and the weight remained at its designated value. The amount of new land flooded by creation of a reservoir was con- sidered to be the one factor with greatest impact on agriculture, bird habitat, and big game habitat. Sites were ranked in terms of their new reservoir area as follows: -Area <5000 acres: Rank + -Area 5000 -100,000 acres: Rank ++ -Area ~100,000 acres: Rank +++ The same adjustments were made for the big game, agricultural poten- tials, and bird habitat weights based on this flooded area impact (see Table C.8). Note that for developments which utilized an existing lake for storage, the new area flooded was assumed to be minimal (+). C-10 The scale indicators were also given a weighted value as follows: - B ~ 5 c = 3 0 = 1 To compute the ranking score, the scale weights were multiplied by the adjusted criteria weights for each criteria and the resulting products were added. Two scores were then computed. The total score is the sum of all eight criteria. The partial score is the sum of the first four cri- teria only, which gives an indication of the relative importance of the existing natural resources in comparison to the total score. (xi) Evaluati The evaluation of sites took place in the following manner: sites were first divided into three groups in terms of their capacity. Based on the economics, the best sites were chosen for environmental evaluation. Table C.10 lists the number of sites evaluated in each of the capacity groups. The sites were then evaluated as described above. They were listed in ascending order according to their total scores for each of the groups. The partial score was also compared. The sites were then grouped as better, acceptable, questionable, or unacceptable, based on the scores. The same general standards (e.g, cut-off points) were used for all groups. (xii) Analysis The partial and total scores for each of the sites, grouped according to capacity, are given in Table C.10. -0 -25 MW Of the five sites evaluated, all five were determined to be accep- table, based on the overall standards. Three of these sites were judged as a group to be better than the other two which had higher partial and total scores. -25 -100 MW A cutoff point of approximately 134 for the total score and approxi- mately 100 for the partial score was used. Sites scoring higher were eliminated. The seven sites scoring lower were re-examined. Three developments at Bruskasna, Bradley Lake, and Snow were the best sites identified. C-11 Of the remaining four, Coffee and Seetna were identified as ques- tionable because of anticipated salmon fisheries problems. Lowe and Cache scored only slightly better, but Lowe has minimal fisheries problems, and the Cache site is farthest upstream on the Talkeetna River, beyond which the salmon migrate only about five miles. ->100 MW Again, the same cutoff point for acceptable sites with total scores of 134 and partial scores of 100 used. The sites fell easily into the two groupings of acceptable and unacceptable. (xiii) Results Sixteen sites were chosen for further consideration. Three con- straints were used to identify these 16 sites. First, the most eco- nomical sites which had passed the environmental screening were chosen. Secondly, sites with a very good environmental impact rating which had passed the economic screening were chosen. And finally, a representative number of sites in each capacity group were to be chosen, Table C.10. From the list of 16 sites, 10 were selected for detailed development and cost estimates required as input to the generation planning. The ten sites chosen are underlined in Table C.1. Three sites, Strandline Lake, Hicks, and Browne were identified by the Ch2M-Hill Report to COE as being environmentally very good. These sites were included, even though their associated economics were not as good as many of the other sites which had also passed the economic screening. The Chakachamna site had both a very high economic ranking and a good environmental rating in terms of the sensitivity of its natural resources to development. Chakachamna was also identified by the Ch2M~Hill report as having minimal environmental impacts. It should be noted that under the recently passed Alaska National Interest Lands Conservation Act (PL 96-487, December 2, 1980) the lands including the Chakachamna site have not received protected status of any type. This applies to both the project area and the existing Lake Chakachamna. Although the boundary of designated wilderness area is located a few miles from the eastern end of the lake, operation of the lake would have little direct effect on the wilderness area. Because the Chakachamna site is desirable in other respects, it is being consid- ered as a viable alternate competing with the Susitna Project. Three sites were chosen on the Talkeetna River. These are Cache, Keetna, and Talkeetna-2 which are being studied as an integrated system alternative. Although the identified environmental problems are significant, the system is being studied for several reasons. It C-12 is believed that with the system approach, the incremental impacts of building a second or third plant on the same river system would be smaller than the impacts associated with building plants on completely separate rivers. The integrated system not only improves the economic potential of the operating capacity, but also allows for better con- trol over regulation of stream flows as needed by the downstream eco- systems. Secondly, the choice of the Talkeetna River was made over other rivers with potential for development of similar systems, because the environmental sensitivity of the Talkeetna was not as great as that of the Yentna-Skwentna basin, the Chulitna River or the lower Susitna basin, particularly with regards to the presence of an- adromous fish or big game. And finally, the Talkeetna River develop- ments were some of the best sites economically, thus providing better competition to Susitna. The remaining sites of the 10 studied in detail are Allison Creek, Snow, and Bruskasna. These are sites that were identified by the environmental evaluation as being the best environmentally of the 28 economically superior sites. (e) Plan Formulation and Evaluation Steps 4 and 5 in the planning process are the formulation of the preferred sites identified in Step 3 into Railbelt generation scenarios. To ade- quately formulate these scenarios, the engineering, energy and environ- mental aspects of the ten shortlisted sites were further refined (Step 4). Engineering sketch layouts {Figures C.2 to C.lO) were produced for seven of the sites with capacities of 50 MW or greater, and site specific construc- tion cost estimates were prepared on the basis of this more detailed infor- mation (Tables C.l2 through C.l8). For the three remaining sites, con- struction costs were developed by a process of judgemental interpolation on the basis of the estimates for the seven larger developments. Costs and parameters associated with all ten sites are summarized in Table C.l9. These costs incorporate a 20 percent allowance for contingencies and 10 percent for engineering and owner's administration. Cost of money has again been assumed to be three percent, net of inflation. Energy and power capability was determined for each of the sites using a monthly streamflow simulation program (Appendix F). The annual average energy for each of the the sites are also given in Table C.l9. Installed capacities were general- ly assumed that would yield a plant factor for the developments of approx- imately 50 percent. This ensures general consistency with Susitna develop- ments and Railbelt system requirements. The formulation of the ten sites into development plans resulted in the identification of five plans incorporating various combinations of these sites as input to the Step 5 evaluations. The five development plans are given in Table C.20. The essential objective of Step 5 was established as the derivation of the optimum plan for the future Railbelt generation incorporating non-Susitna hydro generation as well as required thermal generation. The methodology used in the evaluation of alternative generation scenarios for the Railbelt are discussed in detail in Section 8. The criterion on which the preferred plan was finally selected in these activities was least present worth cost based on economic parameters established in Section 8. The selected potential non-Susitna hydro developments (Table C.19) were ranked in terms of their economic cost of energy. Chakachamna is the high- est ranked (preferred) with a cost of energy of 40 $/1000 kWh and Hicks is the lowest ranked with a cost of energy of 1612 $/1000 kWh. The potential developments were then introduced into the all-thermal generating scenario in groups of two or three. The most economic schemes were introduced first followed by the less economic schemes. The results of these runs are given in Table C.21 and illustrate that a minimum total system cost of $7040 million can be achieved by the introduc- tion of the Chakachamna, Keetna and Snow projects (Plan C.2). This plan includes 1211 MW of thermal capacity and assumes a medium load forecast. No renewal of gas plants at retirement is also assumed. The make-up of the Railbelt generation system under this least cost scenario is shown in Figure C.11. Additional sites such as Snow, Strandline and Allison Creek could be introduced without significantly changing the economics of the generation scenarios. The introduction of these latter projects would be beneficial in terms of displacing non-renewable energy resource consumption. C-14 LIST OF REFERENCES (1) u.s. ArmY Corps of Engineers, National Hydropower Study, July, 1979. (2) Alaska Power Administration, Hydroelectric Alternatives for the Alaska Railbelt, February, 1980. (3) Handy-Whitman, Cost Index for Hydropower Production in the Pacific Northwest, 1978. C-15 TABLE C.1 -SUMMARY OF RESULTS OF SCREENING PROCESS Ehmination El1minat 10n Ehminahon Eliminat ron Iteration Iteration Iteration Iteration 1 1 1 1 Site 2 3 4 Site 2 3 4 Site 2 3 4 Site 2 3 4 Allison Creek Fox * Lowe * Talachulitna River * 9eluga Lower * Gakona * lower Chulitiua * Talkeetnna R. -Sheep * Beluga Upper * Gerstle * lucy * Talkeetna -2 Big Delta * Granite Gorge * McClure Bay * Tanana River * Bradley lake * Grant lake * McKinley River * Tazlina * Bremmer R. -Salmon * Greenstone * Mclaren River * Tebay lake * Bremmer R. -S.F. * Gulkana River * Million Dollar * Teklanika * Browne Hanagita * Moose Horn * Tiekel River * Bruskasna Healy * Nellie Juan River * Tokichitna * Cache Hicks Nellie Juan R. -Upper * Tat atlanika * Canyon Creek * 'Jael<River * Ohio * Tustumena * Caribou Creek * Johnson * Power Creek * Vachon Island * Carlo * Junction Island * Power Creek - 1 * Whiskers * Cathedral Bluffs * Kanhshna River * Rampart * Wood Canyon * Chakachamna Kasilof River * Sanford * Yanert - 2 * Chulitna E .F. * Keetna Sheep Creek * Yentna * Chulitna Hurrican * Kenai Lake * Sheep Creek - 1 * Chulitna W.F. * Kenai lower * Silver lake * Cleave * Killey River * Skwentna * Coal * King Mtn * Snow Coffee * Klutina * '§TOman Gulch * Crescent lake * Kotsina * Stelters Ranch * Crescent lake - 2 * lake Creek Lower * Strandline lake Deadman Creek * lake Creek Upper * Summit Lake * Eagle River * lane * Talachulitna * NOTES: (1) Final site selection underlined. * Site eliminated from further consideration. Site Healy Carlo Yanert -2 Cleave Tebay Lake Hanagita Gakona Sanford Lake Creek Upper McKinley River Teklanika Crescent Lake Kasilof River Million Dollar Rampart Vachon Island Junction Island Power Creek TABLE C.2 -SITES ELIMINATED IN SECOND ITERATION Criterion National Park (Mt. McKinley) National Monument (Wrangell-St. Elias National Park) and Major Fishery National Monument (Wrangell-St. Elias National Park) Naional Monument (Denali Naitonal Park) National Monument (Lake Clark National Park) Major Fishery TABLE C.3 -EVALUATION CRITERIA Evaluabon criteria (1) Big Game (2) Agricultural Potential (3) Waterfowl, raptors & endangered species (4) Anadromous fisheries (5) Wilderness Consider at ion (6) Cultural, recreation & scientific features (7) Restricted land use (B) Access General Concerns -protection of wildlife resources -protection of existing and potential agricultural resources -protection of wildlife resources -protection of fisheries protection of wilderness and unique features -protection of existing and identified potential features -consideration of legal restriction to land use -identification of areas where the greatest change would occur Scale Rating A. EXCLUSION B. HIGH SENSITIVITY c. MODERATE SENSITIVITY D. LOW SENSITIVITY TABLE C,4 -SENSITIVITY SCALING Definition The significance of one factor is great enough to exclude a site from further consideration. There is little or no possibility for mitigation of extreme adverse impacts or development of the site is legally prohibited. 1) The most sensitive components of the environmental criteria would be disturbed by development, or 2) There exists a high potential for future conflict which should be investigated in a more detailed assessment. Areas of concern were less important than those in "B" above. 1) Areas of concerns are common for most or many of the sites. 2) Concerns are less important than those of "C" above. 3) The available information alone is not enough to indicate a greater significance. Evaluation Criteria Big Game: Agricultural Potential Waterfowl, Raptors and Endangered Species Anadromous fisheries Wilderness Consideration Cultural, Recreational and Scientific features TABLE C.5 -SENSITIVITY SCALING Of EVALUATION CRITERIA Exclusion -major anadromous fish corridor for three or more species -more than 50,000 salmon passing site High -seasonal concentration are key range areas upland or lowland soils suitable for -nesting areas for: • Peregrine falcon • Canada Geese • Trumputee Swan -year round habitat for Neritic seabirds and raptors -key migration area three or more species present or spawning identified as a major anadromous fish area All of the following -good to high quality: • scenic area • natural features • primitive values -selected for wilderness consider at ion -existing or proposed historic landmark -reserve proposed for the Ecological Reserve System scALE Moderate -big game present -bear denning area -marginal farming soils -high density waterfowl area -waterfowl migration and hunting area -waterfowl migration route -waterfowl nesting or or molt area -less than three species present or spawning -identified as an impor- tant fish area Two of the following -good to high quality: • scenic area • natural features • primitive value site in or close to an area selected for wilderness consideration -Site affects one or more of the following: • boating potential • recreational potential • historic feature • historic trail archeological site • ecological reserve nomination • cultural feature Low -habitat or distribu- tion area for bear -no identified agri- cultural potential -medium or low density waterfowl areas -waterfowl present -not identified as a spawning or rearing area. One or less of the following -good to high quality: scenic area • natural features • primitive value -site near one of the factors in B or C TABLE C.5 (Continued) Evaluation Criteria Restricted Land Use Restricted Land Use Exclusion -Significant impact to: • Existing National Park Federal Lands with- drawn by National Monument Proclaima- tions High -Impact to: • National Wildlife Range State Park • State game refuge, range, or wilderness preservation area -no existing roads, railroads or airports -terrain rough and access difficult -increase access to SCALE Moderate -Increase: • National For est • Proposed wild and scenic river • National resource area • forest land withdrawn -existing trails -proposed roads or -existing airports -close to existing roads Low -In one of the following: • State land Native land • None of A, B, C -existing roads or railroads -existing power lines IABL[ C.6 -Sll£ [VAliJAIIOHS Agr {cultural WoEerFowl, Raploro, Wlldirneea tullural, f&icreo[ional, tfee[r lcted Big c..., Potent iol [nd!I!!!J8red Specie• Conslderot !on and Scientific r!oherleo land Uoe Allison Creek -Alack and Grizzly benr -None lde•'l.l rted -Year roood hobitet for -Spawning area for -HI~ to good quality -None !dent! rtod -Ncar Oluqoch present neritic oeahlrda ond on lnaon epee leo aet!n lc area Hot lnnnl forest roptors -Peregr lne falcon neat lng area ... Waterfowl resent Orodley lnke -Block nnd Grizzly beor -25 to JO percent of -Peregr lne rn leon -Nom! !dent I fled -Good to hi~ quality -Doat lnq oroo -Nom! !dent Hied pre ant soil morqinall !mit-nest lng areoo ecenery -f.boaa present oble for forming -hi alit forest a Browne -Black and Grizzly boor -1-bre than 50 percent -low density of woter--Nom! -Nom! -Boot lng potential -Nom! I dent I rtod -~~:"~resent morginolly sultoble fowl for forntlng -Car lbou winter ron Bruskoeno -Block ond Grizzly bonr -Nono I dent! fled -low density of woter--None -Good to hI~ quo lit y -Boating potent lol -Nom! I dent! rted present fowl scenery -Proposed ecological -f.booe present -Neotlng and 1110 I ling reoorve site -Cor ibour winter ran oren Olnkochomno -Alock beor hohltot -Uphmd opruce, hard--Waterfowl neot lnq and -Two spec len present -Area under wllderneso -Anal ing orens -None I dent lflerl -~loose present woort forent molt lng oroo conoldeot Ion, -Good to hi~ quollty ocenery -Pr lmlt lYe and nnturol feotureo Coffee -Block and Grizzly beor -Moro than 50% of uppor -Key waterfowl hobltot -rour opec len present' -None I dent I fled -Bont lng oreo -None !dent I fled present Iondo oultob le for two apownlng in oren -ttlone present ogr lr.ul turol -Good foreota Cothedrnl Oluffn -Block and Grizzly bear -1-bre thqn 50% of lond -low drmalty of water--Onn opec lea prooent -Good scenery -None !dent! fled -Nom! ldentlfled present morginnl for faraing fowl -f.boae present -~lund spruce-hardwood -Neotlng and 1110lt lng -Doll sheep present foreot oren -Hoose c:cncentrat Ion or eo Hicks -Black Dt'ld Grizzly beer -None I dent If led -Waterfowl neat lng and -rar downotruam of alto -Nom! I dent! fled -None ldont I fled -No praoent present 1a0l t lng area only rei'Jt r let lonn -Corlbou preaent -Hoose winter 1 oren Johnson -Dlack ond Grizzly bear -25 to 50!1 of upland -low denolty waterfowl -Saloon epownlng area, -Nom! !dent! fiad -Boot lng potont Ia! -Nom! !dent! fled present ooll suitable for a reo one spec lea preoent -foboBo, caribou ond farming -Neetlng ond mit lng b loon preoent -t.plond opruce-hordwood a reo forest Keetno -Black ond Grizzly bear -None ldont I fled -Nom! !dent If led -rour &pee len preoent' -Coed to hi~ quality -HI~ booting potontlol -Nom! I dent I fled present one ope-cleo opnhTiing prlooltlvo Iande -Caribou winter area near elte -Hooae fall/winter conc:ent rat ion area Kenai lake -Block .,d Grizzly boor -Nono Identified -Woturfowl neat lng ond -rour opec lee preoent' : :!!tur:i8 ~!~{u~~:nery -Boot lng potent lol -Olugoch National -~r~""~ep hRhttat -Coastal hetllock-11'10lt lng area two spawning roreot altko opruea forest -foboae fall/winter concentration areo TA!llE C.6 (Contl,.,.,d) e Agr [cultural Waterfowl, RapEero, Wlldirno!IB Culturul, Recrev[ionol; 11iio£rleted Big C...... Pot""t ial EndenQ!!red §l!!eleo tonoiderotion fmd Scientific rtllherloo Ltmd Use Klut !no -Block and Grluly beor -25 to 50 pereent or -low d<molty w•lcrfowl -Two opccles present, High quality scern>ry -Boot lng pot....tlol -!lone ldontlfed premtnt aollo morgtnai for orea Ot"'e speetea eptnn in -Natural forut lona "" Corlbou ptenent farming -Nesting nnd ..,I tlnq vicinity of site -Prl10llhe lfmdo -J.boso rail CDnctlnt ro--Cll..,te morglnol for area -Soloeted for wlldor- t ton eree rariOing tJpland apruee-nonn conn lderot ton hardWood roroet lnne -Bl """ be or prem'"t -low densUy wntorfowl -rive i!p'DClfts prosont -Hcnn loontlf!ed -'::::!:ii't~ortonltleo -Hcnn ldonll flod -f.bose present , area and upswn ln o \tc Cor lbou preDent -Hooting and mo It lng vicinity ercn lo"" -Rinck and Grizzly boor -None ldont If led ... Per lgrene falcon -Oln spec leo praoent, -Good to high quollty -Hlntodcal feoturo • loeohd no or t no pr-esent -Cosatnl wootorn hmnJock-nestlnt;J eroo othero down'&t reoo of -Propoood ocologlcol bordor of Onlgoch f.bose pres~nt altkn cpruec forest olle reMtrve aite Nat lond foreot lower O.ulltno • Block ond Grluly beQt -H::!ro thon ~0 pereont or -lbdh.., donslty ""torfowl -Four epoclos present t -Aron oolectod ror -l!oot lng rotontl6l • Hcnn ldootlrtod present the uplond coila oult-area throe """"" lng In wlldoroenn cnnstder.ot ton -Car tbou pnmont able for rormlnq: Neotlng ond mit lng vicinity oroo Silver loko -Block and Grizzly boar -Ilona .toont If lod -Yon round hobllot for -Ono spec toe prooont • -Good to Mgh quollty .., Oost lng etrm potont lAl • Cl1lo<joch ~lot lonol preoent -Coootol waotorn hnr:doc:k-ner It lc o•oblrdn fmd morn downatrii'!<W:J """"'"Y roroo -lli!J!:! d!!nslt~ or oeols oitko e.eruce foront r!Etoro • Primitive volua Skwentno -50 percent or ttpperlmdo -low d<Joolty wohrrowl -Three ep0c leo prooant, -lboo !dent lfled : ~~~!~r.~n .. n. -Ibn!! ldont lrtod oultoble for rer .. lng ClfOB apawnlng ln oroo -Lowlfmd !lfJrUCe --Host lng ond molt lng hardwood rorost IU03 Snow -Nooo ldontl fled • lbetlng ond molting -•-ldontlflod • Proposed ee<>loglcol • l.oeetod In Chll!lBCh ores rnoerva alto ~lionel foroot Slrcndllne toko II'ID:tgl--Nootlng Gnd ""It lng -Hone proe""t -ll<><>d to h!qf> quollly • Nooo Identified • -lt!.nt I fled nree: lol~eotno 2 -~~c .... ldontlfled -Four opec loo ptoaont, -Good to h lqf> qualIty • !looting potont lei • f'lo"" ld<tnll find oott epee lea opawnn at eecnarv olte -Pr I" it he lando -llano ldontl fled -Hone ld<tnt \fled -four gpttC lea of 811\mon ~ Good to high quality -!looting potentlol -ltJne ldontl fled preoent, epmwn lng nreos ec&nery ldontirled -Prlmlt lve lond~ fa.rllno -IInne ldonll flod ... hm opec leo present -None identified -!looting potential • Hcnn ld:mtHied -lowland apruet!-hordwood ut olte fmd upotrooo forest loklchltna -Black bear preoent -PtJte Umn 50 percent of -Hodlt,. donolty Willer--four cpecleo present., -Border primitive oren • lloollng potcnllol -Hcnn ldont lrted -Hoose present Dolls nre u:Joblo for fowl ttreo threo epecteo opown ln ... Car Jbou preoent forming (In upper lando) -Nesting and ..,ltlnq ores olte •lcintly TABlE t.~ (Continued) hmlt.nern -Block be or hob It nt -Nooo !dent I fled • Nono !do!ntlrlod • Nono ldent Hied -S..lected ror wl!dnrnesn -None I <foot HI <><I -located in Kens l -!loll ohoop hobllot tOMidorat ion Not tonal Noose R""9" -Caod to hlgll qunl tty -Slte within n scenery doolgnoted l'l:>t lenni -Natural feot.Ut"t'!D WI tdormn;o areo -Prlo,ltlve l""do (%>per llo lu<t• -t-klooe present -Hadlum dennlty wnter-rour opecius prcoent, • Nono !donl H lod -l'.tout ing :Jrea -Nono ldonll flod fowl IUftD tw cpm::ios opown in -1\botlng end roaltlng nroa ares l%>P•r No llle -Grbzly bear preaent -1\bne ldontHiod -Nons ldentlrlod -Nons ldontl rted -ll:Jntlng IX!lllfltlol -thugDCh flat lrn>ol Juon -Hoooo preoent -Conulsl weotern heraloclc-rorest • fll&ek boor hobltot nitko optJrte roroat Whlnkers Olock ond Crlzz!y beor -50 percent of upf)Etr lando -low density walcrfmd ... five epecloe: preuent., -Nons ldontlf!ed -Coot I"'J potmnt lol -liD"" I dent !r ied -~==n~taeent sultoble ror ror,.lng erao two BfJOWJl ln are111 -llottoml1111d epuree• • Noet lng end 11101t ln9 -Cor lbeu erosent l!.'!l!lsr forest area Yentna -Blt!Ck ond &rlzzly beor -25 to 5£1 percent or -HodhJO denulty wotor-- r he epee leo Elpnl«l ln -none ldl:nt tr lo<l -Coat lfl<l l"'tenUol • None I <lnnU fled pTesent ootls in )mdondn uro rowl oreo BrftD -ltlooo, spr lng/o..,.,.r/ rrultobl" ror rorl!l!ng Nootln9 and 1110ltlng winter :onct:mtrot ton -eott ... lnnd spruce-poplor oreft rorcnt Crescent Lake Chokochomno Lower Be I uga Coffee ~per llelugo Strand line Lake Bradley Lake Kasilof River Tust~.JTtenn Kenai Lower Kenol Lake Crescent Lake-2 Grant Lake Snow 1-lcClure Day Big Geme c c c c c c c c c c ll c n 8 D ~per Nellie .l.Jon R C Allison Creek D Solomon Gulch tJ lowe c Silver Lake D rower Creek D Million Dollar D Agr lcullurol Potential D tJ D B 0 c c ll D B 0 D IJ D D D D IJ D D D IJ D c c c c c R c IJ c c c c c 0 D R B R ll n n Anodromous rtsherles [J c 8 B D D D A D 0 B c ll D c D c c c c A A TABLE C. 7 -SITE EVALUATION MATRIX Wilderness Cons !deration c R D D IJ c c D B c c c c D B ll D D c c c B Cult, Recren, & SclentHlc c c c c c D c c D c D c c c D c tJ D c c c c Restr lcted Land Use A ll D D D D 0 B B c c c c c c 0 D D c c c Acceos B c )100 D <25 D 25-100 D 25-100 0 <25 0 25-100 0 B <25 25-100 0 )100 0 <25 D <25 D 25-100 c <25 <25 D <25 D <25 D 25-100 c <25 c <25 c Dam Scheme Height (rt) Reservoir <150 w/Diverslon Reservoir <150 w/IJI version Reoervolr <150 ond Dam Dsm end <150 Reservoir [)om and 150-350 Reservoir Reservoir <150 w/Di vera !on Reservoir <150 w/Oiverolon Reservoir 150-350 w/01 vers !on Reservoir <150 w/Diverslon Dnm ond <150 Reoervolr Oson and >350 fleoervoir Reservoir <150 w/01 vera ion Reservoir <150 w/Diverslon Reoervo!r 150-350 w/DI vers inn Reserve ir <150 w/Di version Reservoir <150 w/D! version Reservoir <150 w/Di vera !on Reservoir <150 w/01 version Dam and 150-350 Reservoir Reservoir <150 w/Di version Reservoir <150 w/Di vera inn Dam ond Resr.rvoir <150 on nooded (Acres) <5000 <5000 <5000 <5000 5000 to 100,000 <5000 <5000 >100,000 <5000 <5000 5000 to 100,000 <5000 <5000 5000 to 100,000 <5000 <5000 <5000 <5000 5000 to 100,000 <5000 <5000 5000 to 100,000 Keetne Granite Gorge lalkeetnn-2 Greenstone Cache Hicks Rampart Vachon lsI ood Junction Island l<onllshna River McKinley River Tekloniko River Browne ~oly Carlo Yonert-2 llruskasna Tanana Gerst le Johnson Cathedral Bluffs Big Game B B fl B fl IJ c B B c B B !l B ll IJ II B !l c ll Agrlcu !Lura I Potent lei 0 0 0 0 0 0 B ll B ll D D c c 0 0 0 IJ B c 0 0 0 0 0 c B c c c c 0 0 0 0 0 c c c Anodromous fisheries B B B B B 0 A A A ll 0 0 D 0 0 0 D B c c c Wilderness Conoiderat ion D c c c c 0 D D 0 B B D B B B 0 D D 0 0 Cult, Recreo, & Scientific c c c 0 c c c 0 c B c c B c c c 0 Restricted lend Use 0 D 0 D D 0 c 0 0 D A A D A A A D D 0 0 0 Access 25-100 c 25-100 25-100 25-100 25-100 D 25-100 )1011 c >100 >1011 c 25-100 B D >Hill 0 0 0 D 25-100 0 25-1011 c 25-100 D )100 0 )100 Osm Scheme Height (ft) Dum ond >350 Reservoir Reoervolr 150-J50 w/Oi version Osm and >350 Reservoir Reservoir 150-350 w/Oiversion Dl!lll end 150-350 Reservb!r Dam and 150-J50 Reservoir Osm and Reservoir Osm and Reservoir Osm and Reservoir Osm and Reservoir Osm and Reservoir Osm ond Reservoir Dam nnd Reservoir Dam ond Reservoir Dam end Reservoir Dom end Reservoir Dam end Reservoir Osm and Reservoir Dam and Reservoir flam and Reservoir and >350 <150 150-350 (150 150-350 >350 150-350 150-J50 150-350 150-J50 150-J50 <150 <150 <150 150-J50 a flooded (Acres) 51100 to 11111,000 <5111111 50011 to 100,000 <5000 <501111 <511011 >100,1100 >100,000 )1110,000 )11111,000 <5000 5000 to 100,000 5000 to 100,000 5000 to 100,000 <5000 5000 to 100,000 5000 to 100,000 50011 to 100,000 <5000 5000 to 100,000 50011 TARLE C.7 (Conllnued) Big __________________ Game Clr.ove c Wood Conyon c Tehay Lake c lbnaglta c Klulino B Tezl inn ll Gakonn 13 Sanford 0 r.ulkona [l Yentno B Tolachultno B SkwenLna R luke Creek l\Jpe r c Lake Creek lower c lower Chulitna c Toklchltna c Coal B !Jllo B Chulitna n Whiskers c lnne c Agr iculluro l Potential 0 0 0 0 c 0 c c 0 R [l B 0 B n n 0 0 0 B B B c 0 0 c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c Anadromous risheries B B c 0 c c c c c B R B c [l B B c c c B B Wllrlerness Consideration B B B 0 R 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 c 0 c c c c c 0 0 Cult, Recreo, Reolrlcled c\ Scienll fie lund Use c 0 0 0 c c c c B c c c 0 c c c c c c c c A A A A 0 c A A B 0 0 0 A 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Access 0 0 B ll 25-100 >100 0 0 0 25-100 c >100 c 25-100 c 25-100 c c D 25-100 D >100 0 25-100 0 25-100 0 25-100 c 25-100 c >100 Oom Scheme Helgllt (ft) Dum and 150-J50 Reservoir Oom and >J50 Reservoir Reservoir <150 w/Oi version Reservoir <150 w/Oiverolon Oom ond Reservoir Dam and Reservoir Oom ond Reservoir 150-J50 150-J50 Reservoir 150-J50 w/DI vers \on Dum and <150 Reservoir Oom end <150 Reservoir Oom and >350 Roservoir Reservoir <150 w/Oi vera I on Oom and 150-J50 Reservoir Oom and Reservoir Onm and Reservoir Oom and Reservoir Dom ond Reservoir Dam and Reservoir Oom nnd Reservoir Dam and 150-350 150-350 150-350 150-350 150-350 <150 150-J50 0 rlooded (Acres) 5000 to 100,000 >100,000 (5()00 <5000 5000 to 100,000 5000 to 100,000 5000 to 100,000 >100,000 5000 lo 100,000 5000 to 100,000 <5000 <5000 <5000 5000 to 100,000 <5000 <5000 <5000 <5000 <5000 lAIII.( C.1 (Conllnuedl Big ______________ c.. llnnd C.Oyon Honeqllo ,.,,,,.. s.nrord ~I keno Venlne loli0Cf1ultno Slnenlno loire Creek """'r loire Creek l"""r lok lctlll ... rnot "''" O.Ultlno tltl.ecerll c c A n n " A A A A c c c c n 8 A c c A A9rlcu llurol Potenltol 0 0 0 0 0 c c 0 A n A 0 A n " 0 0 0 II 8 0 i•lerfowl, R•plore , (ndl). Spec lea B 0 0 r c c c c c c r c r c c c c r c 0 8 A 0 c c c c 8 R 8 c 8 II 8 c c c B II 0 WI lrlerneeo Conoldlrollon R 8 8 n II D 0 0 D 0 0 0 c 0 c c c c c 0 0 c Cull, lllocr .. , llloolrlcled & Sdenl tr tc lond lloe c II 0 0 c c c c A c c c 0 c c c c c c c c A 0 c A B 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 D D D Accooo 0 0 II 0 D 0 c c c c c 0 0 0 D D c c c lneiei I iff Cop...,lly (Mil) 1~-100 )100 U-100 U -100 2).100 >100 U-100 U-100 U-100 n -1110 >100 n-1m ,.. end ........... Dol end Rtuw.rwoh 1~-)~0 >J~ ........... (1)0 w/Oherolon lloMrvolr <I~ w/Ol .. rol"" 0.0 end lllooerwolr 0.0 end ......... ,. llollrwolr 1)0 -J~ w/Dhoro Inn 0.0 end ........... ,.. end ............ (I )I) (I~ )J)O llo11nolr <I~ w/OI .. rolon 0.0 end Rre .. rvotr 0.0- lllo11rwtr ,.. -........ ,, 0.0 end ......... ,, 0.0- lllo11rvolr 0.0- llo11rvolr 1\0 -J)O I )O.J)O 1)0-J~ >no ( .... floodM (Acne) )OliO to IOO,!m >100,000 (~ ()000 )OliO to 100,0011 ~n lo IOO,OIWI SOliD lo 100,1100 )1110,000 loOIIO lo IOO,OIWI )11110 to 100,1100 ()f!OO <)0011 <)000 )000 to 11111,000 <loOIIO (\OliO <:111111l ()0011 TABLE C.8 -CRITERIA WEIGHT ADJUSTMENTS Dam Height Adjusted We1ghts Reserv. Area Initial Weight + ++-+++ + ++ +++ Big Game 8 6 7 8 Agricultural Potential 7 5 6 7 Birds 8 6 7 8 Fisheries 10 8 9 10 TABLE C.9 -SITE CAPACITY GROUPS No. of S1tes No. of Sites Site Grou~ Evaluated Acce~ted < 25 MW 5 3 25-100 MW 15 4 - 6 >100 MW 8 4 TABLE C.10-RANKING RESULTS Site Group Partial Score Total Score Sites: < 25 MW Strandline Lake 59 85 Nellie Juan Upper 37 96 Tustumena 37 106 Allison Creek 65 82 Silver Lake 65 111 Sites: 25 -100 MW Hicks 62 79 Bruskasna 71 104 Bradley Lake 71 104 Snow 71 106 Cache 86 127 Lowe 89 122 Keetna 89 131 Talkeetna -2 98 134 Coffee 101 126 Whiskers 101 134 Klutina 101 142 Lower Chulitiua 106 139 Beluga Upper 117 142 Talachultna River 126 159 Skwentna 136 169 Sites > 100 MW Chakachamna 65 134 Browne 69 94 Tazlina 89 124 Johnson 96 121 Cathedral Bluffs 101 126 Lane 106 139 Kenai Lake 112 147 Tokichitna 117 150 TABLE C.11 -SHORTLISTED SITES Environmental Ca~acit~ Rating 0 -25 MW 25 -100 MW 100 MW Good Strandline Lake* Hicks* Browne* Allison Creek* Snow* Johnson Tustumena Cache* Silver Lake Bruskasna* Acceptable Keetna* Chakachamna* Poor Talkeetna-2* Lane Lower Chulitna Tokichitna * 10 selected sites Table C.12 -PRELIMINARY COST ESTIMATE-SNOW Description Diversion Tunnel Earth Cofferdams Excavation -Overburden -Spillway Impervious Fill Pervious Fill Filter Stone Coarse Rock Fill Concrete Spillway 9 Ft ~ Power Tunnel 22 Ft ~ Surge Shaft 50 MW Underground Powerhouse Tailrace Tunnel Tailrace Channel Subtotal Land/Damages Reservoir Clearing Switch yard Transmission Roads Bridges On-site Roads Buildings/Equipment Mobilization Subtotal Camp Cater in Subtotal Engineering, Administration Contingency TOTAL Quantity 2,000 132,000 768,000 638,000 3,028,000 83,000 57,000 1,600 10,000 200 1 505 2,000 Cost/Omt Unit $ LF 3,060.00 cy 10.25 cy 4.50 cy 5.00 cy 5.00 cy 8.00 cy 8.50 LF 24,900.00 LF 1,978.00 VLF 7,000.00 ea LF 1,978.00 LF 510.00 Airiognt $10 Totgls $10 6.12 1. 35 3.46 3.19 15.14 0.66 0.49 39.80 19.78 1.40 25.00 1.00 1.02 118.41 .98 4.16 3.00 7.20 4.20 5.00 8.00 7.54 158.49 20.00 14.40 192.89 61.72 254.61 Table C.13 -PRELIMINARY COST ESTIMATE-KEETNA Description Diversion Tunnel Earth Cofferdams Excavation -Overburden Impervious Dam Fill Pervious Dam Fill Filter Stone Coarse Rock -Rip Rap Spillway Excavation 130 Ft Concrete Spillway Power Tunnel 100 MW Surface Powerhouse Subtotal Lands/Damage Reservoir Clearing Switch yard Transmission Roads Bridges On-site Roads Buildings/Equipment Mobilization Subtotal Subtotal Engineering, Administration, Contingency Quantity 2,000 824,000 1,474,000 1,850,000 8,513,000 193,000 148,000 410,000 1 ,ooo 2,100 1 Unit LF cy cy cy cy cy cy cy LF LF ea Cost/Unit ) 9,460.00 10.25 4.50 5.00 5.00 8.00 8.50 100,500.00 4,110.00 Amo~nt $10 Totgls $10 18.92 8.45 6.63 9.25 42.50 1.54 1. 26 100.50 8.64 50.00 247.69 1.66 12.18 3.00 3.20 3.60 5.00 5.00 8.00 14.47 303.80 30.00 361.10 115.55 Table C.14-PRELIMINARY COST ESTIMATE-CACHE Cost/Unit Amo~nt Tot~ls Descrietion Quant it~ Unit $ $10 $10 Diversion Tunnel 2,200 LF 8,390.00 18.45 Earth Cofferdams 301 '000 cy 10.25 3.09 Excavation -Overburden 2,946,000 cy 4.50 13.25 -Spillway 490,000 cy Impervious Fill 2,750,000 cy 5.00 13.75 Pervious Fill 12,018,000 cy 5.00 60.09 Filter Stone 284,000 cy 8.00 2.27 Coarse Rock Fill 196,000 cy 8.50 1.67 Concrete Spillway 2,000 LF 71,400.00 142.80 13 Ft ~ Power Tunnel 2,000 LF 2,870.00 5.74 50 MW Surface Powerhouse 1 ea 25.00 Subtotal 286.11 Lands/Damages 1.89 Reservoir Clearing 13.96 Switch yard 3.00 Transmission 8.80 Roads 12.00 Bridges 5.00 On-site Roads 5.00 Buildings/Equipment 8.00 Mobilization 17.19 Subtotal 360.95 Camp 33.75 Cater in 32.40 Subtotal 427.10 Engineering, Administration, Contin2enc~ 136.67 TOTAL 563.77 Table C.15 -PRELIMINARY COST ESTIMATE-BROWNE Cost/Umt Amo~nt Totgls Descri~tion Quant it~ Unit $ $10 $10 Diversion Tunnel 1,000 LF 12,000.00 12.00 Earth Cofferdams 196,000 cy 10.25 2.00 Excavation -Overburden 7,197,000 cy 4.50 32.39 -Spillway Impervious Fill 2,497,000 cy 5.00 12.49 Pervious Fill . 11,895,000 cy 5.00 59.48 Filter Stone 337,000 cy 8.00 2.70 Coarse Rock Fill 329,000 cy 8.50 2.80 Concrete Spillway 1' 100 LF 128,000.00 141.00 23 Ft ~ Power Tunnel 1 ,DOD LF 5,540.00 5.54 100 MW Surface Powerhouse 1 ea 50.00 Tailrace Channel 300 LF 510.00 0.15 Subtotal 320.55 Lands/Damages 4.62 Reservoir Clearing 28.21 Switch yard 3.00 T r ansm iss ion 2.00 Roads 4.20 Bridges 5.00 Dn-s ite Roads 5.00 Buildings/Equipment 8.00 Mobilization 19.03 Subtotal 399.61 Camp 37.50 Cater in 36.00 Subtotal 473.11 Engineering, Administration, Contingency 151.40 TOTAL 624.51 Table C.16-PRELIMINARY COST ESTIMATE-TALKEETNA-2 Cost/Un1t Ailio~nt Totgls Descri~tion Quantitl: Unit $ $10 $10 Diversion. Tunnel 2,800 LF 8,660.00 24.25 Earth Cofferdams 445,000 cy 10.25 4.56 Excavation -Overburden 4,668,000 cy 4.50 21.00 -Spillway 333,000 cy Impervious Fill 2,932,000 cy 5.00 14.66 Pervious Fill 14,213,000 cy 5.00 71 .07 Filter Stone 294,000 cy 8.00 2.35 Coarse Rock Fill 197,000 cy 8.50 1.67 Concrete Spillway 1,200 LF 81,600.00 97.90 12.5 Ft ~ Power Tunnel 2,400 LF 2,750.00 6.60 50 MW Surface Powerhouse 1 ea 25.00 Subtotal 269.06 Lands/Damages 0.48 Reservoir Clearing 3.27 Switch yard 3.00 Transmission 5.60 Roads 7.20 Bridges 5.00 On-site Roads 5.00 Buildings/Equipment 8.00 Mobilization 15.33 Subtotal 321.94 Camp 27.50 Cater in 29.10 Subtotal 378.54 Engineering, Administration, Contingency 121.13 Table C.17 -PRELIMINARY COST ESTIMATE-HICKS Cost/Un~t Amott Totals Descri[!tion Quentitx Unit $ $10 $106 Diversion Tunnel 2,400 LF 8,450.00 20.28 Earth Cofferdams 641 ,DOD cy 10.25 6.60 Excavation -Overburden 2,136,000 cy 4.50 9,60 -Spillway 292,000 cy Impervious Fill 2,160,000 cy 5.00 10.80 Pervious Fill 8,713,000 cy 5.00 43.60 Filter Stone 238,000 cy 8.00 1.90 Coarse Rock Fill 154,000 cy 8.50 1.30 Concrete Spillway 1,800 LF 79,444.00 143.00 15 Ft ~ Power Tunnel 1,900 LF 3,342.00 6.35 Surge Shaft 60 MW Surface Powerhouse ee 30.00 Subtotal 273.43 Lends/Damages 1. 76 Reservoir Clearing 1.48 Switchyard 3.00 Transmission 20.00 Roads 3.00 Bridges 5.00 On-site Roads 5.00 Buildings/Equipment 8.00 Mobilization 16.05 Subtotal 336.72 Camp 33.75 Cater in 30.30 Subtotal 400.77 Engineering, Administration, Contingency 128.25 TOTAL 529.02 Table C.18-PRELIMINARY COST ESTIMATE-CHAKACHAMNA tOst/Omt Aliio~nt lot~ls Descri[:!tion Quantit~ Unit $ $10 $10 Main Dam ea 2.00 26 Ft Concrete Lined Power Tunnel 57,000 LF 8,380.00 477.66 Adit Tunnels 14,000 LF 1 '680.00 23.50 35 Ft Tailrace Tunnel 1,000 LF 3,500.00 3.50 88 Ft ~ Surge Shaft 500 LF 50,000.00 25.00 16 Ft ~ Penstocks 3, 700 LF 5,090.00 18,85 500 MW Underground Powerhouse 1 ea 273.50 Diversion Tunnel 2,000 LF 9,580.00 19.15 Subtotal 843.16 Lands/Damages 0.50 Reservoir Clearing Switchyard 3.00 Transmission 14.00 Roads 31.80 Bridges 10.00 On-site Roads 10.00 Buildings/Equipment 8.oo Mobilization 44.40 Subtotal 964.86 Camp 72.50 Cater in 84.00 Subtotal 1121.36 Engineering, Administration, Contingency 359.05 TOTAL 1480.41 Table C.19-OPERATING AND ECONOMIC PARAMETERS FOR SELECTED HYDROELECTRIC PLANTS Max. Average Economic Gross Installed Annual Plant Capit~l Cost of Head Capacity En err Factor Cos~ Energy No. Site River Ft. (MW) (Gwh (%) ($10 ) ($/1000 Kwh) 1 Snow Snow 690 50 220 50 255 45 2 Bruskasna Nenana 235 30 140 53 238 113 3 Keetna Talkeetna 330 100 395 45 477 47 4 Cache Talkeetna 310 50 220 51 564 100 5 Browne Nenana 195 100 410 47 625 59 6 Talkeetna-2 Talkeetna 350 50 215 50 500 90 7 Hicks Matanuska 275 60 245 46 529 84 8 D"lakachamna D"lakachatna 945 500 1925 44 1480 30 9 Allison Allison Cl'eek 1270 8 33 47 54 125 10 Strandline Lake Beluga 810 20 85 49 126 115 NOTES: TT)Tncluding engineering and owner's administrative costs but excluding AFDC. TABLE C.20 -ALTERNATIVE HYDRO DEVELOPMENT PLANS Installed On-Line Plan Description Capacity Date A.1 Olakachamna 500 1993 Keetna 100 1997 A.2 Olakachamna 500 1993 Keetna 100 1997 Snow 50 2002 A.3 Olakachamna 500 1993 Keetna 100 1996 Snow 50 1998 Strand line 20 1998 Allison Creek 8 1998 A.4 Olakachamna 500 1993 Keetna 100 1996 Snow 50 2002 Strandline 20 2002 Allison Creek 8 2002 A.5 Olakachamna 500 1993 Keetna 100 1996 Snow 50 2002 Talkeetna -2 50 2002 Cache 50 2002 Strandline 20 2002 Allison Creek 8 2002 TABLE C.21 -RESULTS OF ECONOMIC ANALYSES OF ALTERNATIVE GENERATION SCENARIOS Installed Capacity (MW) by lotal System Iota! System Categor~ in 2010 Installed Present Worth Generation Scenario OGP5 Run ~fiermal Hydro Capacity in Cost - ln~e Descn~tion Load Forecast Id. No. oal Gas Oil 2010 (MW) ($106) All Thermal No Renewals Very Low 1 LBT7 500 426 90 144 1160 4930 No Renewals Low L7E1 700 300 40 144 1385 5920 With Renewals Low L2C7 600 657 30 144 1431 5910 No Renewals Medium LME1 900 801 50 144 1895 8130 With Renewals Medium LME3 900 807 40 144 1891 8110 No Renewals High L7F7 2000 1176 50 144 3370 13520 With Renewals High L2E9 2000 576 130 144 3306 13630 No Renewals Probabilistic LOF3 1100 1176 100 144 3120 8320 Thermal Plus No Renewals Plus: Medium L7W1 600 576 70 744 1990 7080 Alternative Chakachamna (500)2-1993 Hydro Keetna (100)-1997 No Renewals Plus: Medium LFL7 700 501 10 794 2005 7040 Chakachamna (500)-1993 Keetna (100)-1997 Snow (50)-2002 No Renewals Plus: Medium LWP7 500 576 60 822 1958 7064 Chakachamna (500)-1993 Keetna (100)-1996 Strandl.i.ne (20), Allison Creek (8), Snow (50)-1998 No Renewals Plus: Medium LXF1 700 426 30 822 1978 7041 Chakachamna (500)-1993 Keetna (100)-1996 Strandline (20), Allison Creek (8), Snow (50)-2002 No Renewals Plus: Medium L403 500 576 30 922 2028 7088 Chakachamna (500)-1993 Keetna (100)-1996 Snow (50), Cache (50), Allison Creek (8), Talkeetna-2 (50), Strandline (20)-2002 Notes: (1) Incorporating load management (2) Installed capacity and conservation 152° 150° 148° SCALE-MILES I INCH EQUALS APPROXIMATELY 40 MILES & G 0 0. 25 MW 25·100 MW > 100 MW '· STRANDLINE L, 13. WHISKERS 26. SNOW 39, LANE 2. LOWER BELUGA 14. COAL 27. KENAI LOWER 40, TOKICHITNA 3. LOWER LAKE CR. 15. CHULITNA 28. GERSTLE 41, YENTNA 4. ALLISON CR. 16, OHIO 29. TANANA R. 42. CATHEDRAL BLUFFS 5. CRESCENT LAKE 2 17. LOWER CHULITNA 30, BRUSKASNA 43. JOHNSON 6. GRANT LAKE 16, CACHE 31. KANTISHNA R. 44. BROWNE 7, McCLURE BAY 19. GREENSTONE 32. UPPER BELUGA 45. JUNCTION IS. s. UPPER NELLIE JUAN 20, TALKEETNA 2 33, COFFEE 46. VACHON IS. 9. POWER CREEK 21, GRANITE GORGE 34. GULKANA R, 47. TAZILNA 10. SILVER LAKE 22. KEETNA 35. KLUTINA 48. KENAI LAKE II, SOLOMON GULCH 23. SHEEP CREEK 36. 8RAOLEY LAKE 49. C HAKACH AMNA 12, TUSTUMENA 24, SKWENTNA 37. HICK'S SITE 25, TALACHULITNA 38. LOWE SELECTED ALTERNATIVE HYDROELECTRIC SITES FIGURE C. I I GIR I 3' GRAVEL _j9 BLANKET sENORMAL MAX.WL(AS INDICATED ON PLAN) COMPACTED PERVIOUS FILL GRAVEL 5URFJlCt: CCREST ELEVATION (AS INDICATED ON PLAN) ~~:=....;:;::::---'---- COMPACTED PERVIOUS FILL U/S COFFE ~ DAM -' D/5 COFFE.RDA..M DAM CROSS SECTION ALTERNATIVE HYDRO SITES TYPICAL DAM SECTION SCALE. : 0 '200 400 FEET ~~~ FIGURE C.2 \ \ . \ I • I \\.\ ~ \ ·. Jl 8 0 0 £:! 0 (~ I 0 0 00 8~ ( ~. • . ALTERNATIVE HYDRO SITES SNOW SCALE: B _ ..... __ ....... -c,~: DlA. POWER TUNNEL PLAN OF DEVELOPMENT SCALE• B 0 0.1 0.'2. M\LES ~-----~----~ o,_._ .... :...-----::;2 MILES FIGURE C.3 [iii] NORMA'-MA')(, W. L. EL. 0)4.5 t .P~R INTAI<i (\ SU~FACE. POWE.RI-lOUSE" TOO MW CAPACITY ~LIPBUCKEi /i'.AII...WATER El... (Q(S.O'j ~.------o/5 COF'FERDAM ... ---.. ...__.__ __ \ ALTERNATIVE HYDRO SITES KEETNA FIGURE C.4 • 1600 1500 ~~oo Jseo 170o _ --~--.... -~--- ------------ ---,.,. __ NORMAL MA'/.. WL I E.L. 1630 \4.00 ~ --.... U/S COFFERDAM ' -----~ ... . ------, 1400 ~ Ol..VER'5\0N ALTERNATIVE HYDRO SITES CACHE SURFACE POWERHOUSE. !50 MW CAPACITY 1500 \600 \iOO 1800 ~A.Lf: 0 O.l .~~~~~ ----~O.Z. MIL~ FIGURE C.5 / # / .·( ___/ · . ... --...._ ----···----··· FLIP8UCt'E.T 0 0.2 MILES FIGURE C.6 • 'Soc NORMAL. MAX . w. L. E.L... '::,45 I U/5 COFFE RO.t:>Jvt / ,,cO 1000 -!..:.-------- FL.OW > --··-----~-- POWER TUNNE-L ALTERNATIVE HYDRO SITES TALKEETNA 2. SCALE. 0 CAPACITY 0.1 0. '2. MlLE.'S FIGURE C.7 ···~ ~···'--, ••. DlVEI<SION "•. ··.. ~ TUN~E.L~ ~ .. '-----.) . . . --....... ----. ......___ .. ·-... :::::::: ... NORMAL MAX. W. L. EL. 1<;;5;;; 1 .. ~­·~~~- ujs COFFERDAM --19CQ 1700 I GOO .........,_.~~========-----150::) '" D/S GOFF cRDAM ~. ., '' ~ -----------------1400 \~ ~~ I SURFAcE:. POWE-RHOUSe.-~" <DO MW CAPACITY ,............,~ '"' ---. ".----···-K..J _______.. . .. . .. ---- 'OP l Lt-WAY CONTROL sTI<UCTURE. ALTERNATIVE HYDRO SITES HICKS ~ ·•" 1800 ----~-------------)~00 rz.cx:o SCA..LE. 0 0.1 0. 2 MIL..ES ~~~~-----. FIGURE C.B [ii -...,., CONSTRU iiON--f ADIT ALTERNATiVE HYDRO SITES CHAKACHAMNA 0 Ut-.JDER.GROLJI-JD POWS<.HOIJSE. - :,00 MW CAPA.CIIY '2 MIL.E.S iiiiiiiilliillilii FIGUREC.9 • 0 MAXI~UM R6SER\OIR EL 1130.0' 2 3 4 5 R:>WER TUNI-JEL. 2(;.0~ OIA. 6 ..., HORIZONTAL DISTANCE.lt-..1 MILi;.S 8 9 PRO~ILE ALONG 4_ OF INTAK~, TUNNEL1 ~ POWERI40USl: UNLit-JED OR SHOTCR&TE TAILRACt TlJN"Na ALTERNATIVE HYDRO SITES SCAL.,fiii CHAKACHAMNA-PROFILE AND SECTIONS SUR.G;E 51-4A.FT 10 II ----·;.·-~ FEET 1'380 LEGEND D HYDROELECTRIC IMi~@ COAL FIRED THERMAL Ell GAS FIRED THERMAL 2000 • OIL FIRED THERMAL( NOT SHOWN ON ENERGY DIAGRI\M)/ NOTE: RESULTS OBTAINED FROM OGPS RUN LFL 7 CHAKACHAMNA EXISTING AND COMMITTED 1990 2000 TIME GENERATION SCENARIO INCORPORATING THERMAL AND ALTERNATIVE HYDROPOWER DEVELOPMENTS -MEDIUM LOAD FORECAST-FIGURE C.ll 1954 2010 2010