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Home My WebLink AboutSUS418INSTREAM TEMPERATURE MODELING AND FISHERY IMPACT ASSESSMENT FOR THE PROPOSED SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT William J. Wilson Michael D. Kelly Arctic Environmental information and Data Center University of Alaska 707 A Street Anchorage, AK 99501 (907) 279-4523 November 1984 To predict natural and with-project temperature regimes down$tream from the Watana and Devil Canyon reservoirs of the proposed Susitna Hydroelectric Project, a Stream Network Temperature Simulation Model (SNTEMP) was employed. This model, developed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service's lnstream Flow and Aquatic Systems Group, requires hydrology, meteorology, basin topography and stream geometry data as input and computes heat flux relationships and transports heat through the river system. This first application of SNTEHP in Alaska is allowing fishery biologists opportunity to examine the thermal effects of many potential Susitna reservoir operating schedules on fishery re- sources. Various combinations of meterological/hydrological conditions were used to simulate downstream river temperatures for natural, reservoir filling, and both one and two-dam operational scenarios. Thermal preference and toler- ance criteria were developed for the five Pacific Salmon species inhabiting the Susitna River, and these SNTEMP predictions are compared to the various life phase temperature criteria. These simulated temperatures show cooler conditions will exist in the river from May through August and warmer water September through April. These altered temperatures are still within the temperature criteria established for Susitna River salmon and in most cases should not significantly impact the resource. However, two significant events could occur from the altered temperature regime: 1) Improved mainstem incubation habitat due to warmer winter water temperatures and 2) Decreased juvenile growth from colder summer water te~eratures. SNTEMP Features · built in regression model for filling incomplete data sets . monthly variable topographic shading · inflo\ving groundwater temperature prediction model · time variable temperature and humidity lapse rates for transfering observed data throughout a basin . adjustable period temperature predictions Linked Simulation Models Reservoir Operation Model Reservoir Temperature Model Stream Temperature Model Basin Water Balance Model Preliminary salmon tolerance criteria for Susitna River drainage. TEMPERATURE RANGE (C) SPECIES LIFE PHASE TOLERANCE PREFERRED Chum Adult Migration 1.5-18.0 6.0-13.0 Spawning 1 1.0-14.0 6.0-13.0 Incubation 0-12.0 2.0-8.0 Rearing l. 5-16.0 5.0-15.0 Smolt Migration 3.0-13.0 5.0-12.0 Sockeye Adult Migration 2.5-16.0 6.0-12.0 Spa•.ming 1 4.0-14.0 6.0-12.0 Incubation 0-14.0 4.5-8.0 Rearing ?.0-16.0 7.0-14.0 Smolt Migration 4.0-18.0 5.0-12.0 Pink Adult M.igration 5.0-18.0 7.0-13.0 Spawning 1 7.0-18.0 8.0-13.0 Incubation 0-13.0 4.0-10.0 Smolt M.igration 4.0-13.0 5.0-12.0 Chinook Adult Migration 2 .0-16.0 7.0-13.0 Spawning 1 5.0-14.0 7.0-12 .0 Incubation 0-16.0 4.0-12 .0 Rearing 2.0-16.0 7.0-14.0 Smolt Migration 4.0-16.0 7.0-14.0 Coho Adult Migration 2.0-18.0 6.o-11.0 Spawnig 1 2.0-17.0 6.0-13.0 Incubation 0-14.0 4.0-10.0 Rearing 2.0-18.0 7.0-15.0 Smolt Migration 2.0-16.0 6.0-12.0 1 Embryo incubation or development rate increases as temperature rises. Accumulated temperature units or days to emergence should be determined for each species for incubation. Development time to emergence versus mean incubation temperature for chum salmon. CHUM SALMON EJDGD([ IEVEUftf.NT ( 1/0A YS > 1.828 Alf&G 1983 )OOOC 1.818 1.818 VNQAIIJ 1983 0000 1.814 1.812 RAYI«Hl 1981 •••• 1.818 ... Alf&G ... 1981 ..... I.SJ4 .... (// 1.112 elope'"~. El ... I 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 11 12 lEAN ItWIATia. TDf < C > Dev e lopment time to em e r ge nce versus me an incubation temperatur e for sockeye s a lmon. SOCKEYE SALMON ooma llVEUAEHT ( 1/DAYS > 1.828 Alf&G 1983 )000( 1.818 1.816 VANGMRO 1983 0000 8.814 8.812 IXNi 1981 .... 1.818 ... Alf&G .... 1981 ++++ .... r •.93 1.5!12 elapec8.1152 8.& 8 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Ul Jl J2 MEAN JtruJATlllf JEW ( C > Spawning Date July 20 Aug I AugiO Aug 20 Sept I Sept 10 Sept20 Oc:t I. OctiO Chum salmon spawning time versus mean incubation temperature nomograph . T(C) 1.0 L5 2 .0 2 .5 3 .0 3 .5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 Emergence Date June 10 June I May20 MayiO May I April20 ApriiiO April I March 20 March 10 March I Feb 20 FebiO Feb I Jan 20 JoniO Jan I Peak I I Adult lnmigral idn S1mwning lncuhalion 1---o Juvenile nearing • Oulm igra lion •o-f---+---.. • PINI\ SALMON IG • IO - 20~--------------------------------------------------------------~ Devil Canyon 2002 -··-- Watana 1996 Natural G - 15 10 5 0 t----' May Jun Jul Aug Sep Ocl Nov 1982-1983 Uivcr Mile 130 Dec Tolerance Zone Jan feb Mar Apr lbngc • • Peak I I Cll Ul\1 SA 1.1\ION Atlull lnmigratlon Spawning lncubalion -. o I ., -Juvenile nearing ··---------eo Oulmigralion o o • 0 20r---------------------------------------------------------~ Devil Canyon 2002 -··--- \Vatana 1996 Natural 15 u 10 -~ -t c. e "' ~ 5 0 May Jun Jul Aug Scp Oct Nov 1982-1983 Riwr Mil•• 110 Tolerance Zone llcc Jan Feb Mar Apr )biiJ.!C • • l'eak I Adult lnmi~r:tliun s,,awning In en ba I ion Juvenile nearing Outmigralion ., --e c I I SOCKEYE SALI\ION I 0 0 I I 0 - 0 lOr---------------------------------------------------------------, Devil Canyon 2002 -··-- Waf ana 1996 Natural 15 10 5 0 May Jun Jul Aug Sep Tolerance Zone ~~~ .. ·; Y--·· ' ...... .,......_ .... -~--~/".... .. ':._..i/-; Oct Nuv 1982-1983 nivcr Mile 130 Ucc Jan • n~mgc • • l'cak I I Adull lnmigmlion Spawning lncubatiun Juvenile nearing Outmigrutiun • r-e 0 I COIIO SALMON I I 0 0 I I • -- I 0 lOr-----------------------------------------------------------~ Oevil Canyon 20()2 -··--- \Valana 1996 Naluml 15 5 0 Mny Jun Jul Aug Oct Nov 1982-1983 nivt•r Mile 130 Ucc Tolerance Zone J:lll Feb Mar Apr nangc • • Adull lnmigralion Spawning Incubation Juvenile nearing Out migration • ~ ' • I CHINOOK SALMON I I • • I I • - I • 20r-----------------------------------------------------------~ Devil . Canyon 2002 -··--- \Vatana 1996 Natural 15 G to - 5 0 M:ty Jun Jul Au~ SCJt Oct Nuv ICJH2-19H3 UiVl'r Mile 130 Tolerance Zone Jan Apr Estimated juvenile salmon growth ranges under simulated natural and with-project conditions. 10 WEIGHT <g> NATURAL . 9 8 WATANA 7 6 DEVIL CANYON 5 4 3 2 0 JUN JUVENILE SALMON GROWTH RN 130 JUL AUG SEP MONTH 1982 '1982 -- / ~ 198~~ / , .. / 1971 1971 - OCT NOV -0 ........ w et: ::> ..... ~ et: w Q. ~ w ..... Mainstem Susitna River Average Water Temperatures During the Incubation Period of September Through April .3.5 3.0 2 .5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 NATURAL WATANA 1996 DEVIL CANYON 2002 ~ 1971-2 cs:s1 1974-5 ~ 1981-2 ~ 1982-.3 . . .. CONCLUSIONS: 1. Go through a 5eries of steps to relate model runs to fish life phases and their respective established temperature criteria. 2. Preliminary runs show no obvious adverse impacts from temperature changes on salmon species. 3. Some retardation of juvenile growth may occur due to cooler summer temperatures, even though the project operational water temperatures are within the established tolerance range. 4. Mainstem water temperatures, which under natural conditions may be limiting for incubation, would be increased under project operation and could provide a better mainstem incubating habitat for salmon.