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HomeMy WebLinkAboutAPA Board of Directors Meeting May 3 1985OLD BUSINESS ALASU POWll AOTBOI.In BOil.D OF D li.!CTORS Hl!TISG Juneau Borough Chamber• Friday, May 3, 1985 8:30a.m. I. A. Action Items 5. Liceasing Review and Consideration of Proposed Sta~in g of Construction of the Susitna Hydroelectric Project SUPPLEMENTAL INFORMATION Supplement -ENGINEERING Supplement 2 -PROJECT COSTS & ECONOMICS Supplement 3 -POWER & ENERGY PRODUCTION Sup~lement 4 -FINANCLAL ANALYSIS Supplement 5 -ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS STAGED COr~STRUCTIOH OF THE SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT. A. Action Item Approval tu incorporate stag!d construction of the Watan1 facilities into the Susitna Hydroelectric Project, and to update and/or optimize other features, as appropriate. See Figure 1, Plan and Schedule. B. Background The Application for License before the Federal Energy Rt9ulatory Commiss- ion (FERC), submitted February 1983, proposes a two-stage project on the Sus1tna River. The first stage would be 1 facility at the Watana site with the dam built to an elevation of 2,205 feet, 1 second facility at the Devil canyon site would have a dam built to an elevation of 1,465 feet. Several planning studies determined that this arrangement opti~i­ zes the power development of the Sus1tna River. At the February 1985 Board ~neeting, Staff repornd on a preliminary analysis of staged construction of the Watana facility which. indicated that the Project, as presented in the FERC License Application, is still the opt1trum plan, however, the staged construction would (1) result in lesser 1n1tia1 cost (and thereby mf9ht facilitate financing}, (2) require a smaller State contribution, and (3) provide additional decision points in the project plan and schedule that would allow project development to be more closely aligned with actual system growth. The benefits of staging would be at the expense of a scmewhat higher eventua 1 tota 1 project cost. Staff recommend~. and the Board authoriz!d, further studies be completed to confirm the preli~inary assessments of the staged project in the areas of engineering, econOCDics, finance, and environment. This Action Item reports on those studies. C. Issues 1. Engineering. The stag!d project would be constructed in three stages instead of the currently proposed two stages. The stages would be: Stage I -Wauna Initial Dam -Dam Crest Elevation 2025 Stage II -Devil Canyon Dam -Dam Crest Elevation 1465 Stage III -Watana High Dam -Da~ Crest Elevation 2205 Supplement 1 descri~es the engineer ~ng aspects of construction staging. and contains the report of the Engi~eering External Review Panel on Staging.• 2. Project Cost and Economics. Staging the Watana development would reduce 1n1tial construction costs and the re<~uired state contribu- tion for rate stabilization. However, total construction costs of 9217/307 the three-stage development wi 11 be higher than those of the two- stage development, and bonding requirements will be greater. Staging the Watana Oam reduces the benefit/cost ratio of the License Application scheme by a modest degree as reported in February. Supplement 2 provides estimated construction cost in both real and nominal dollars and provides an economic comparison between the two-stage and three-stage projects.* 3. Power and Energy. The three-stage project would provide the oppor- tunity to align project capacity ·and energy more closely with actual regional demand growth as it occurs in the future. There would be increased flexibility in timing the Susitna project increments to match the utility needs. Supplement 3 describes energy and capacity data for the staged project, and provides a -comparison between the two-stage and three- stage projects.* 4. Finance. The amount of bonds required to fund the construction of the first two stages of the three-stage project is 1 ess than that required under the FERC concept. However, due to inflation and some real cost differences, the bonds required to construct all three stages is greater than that required under the FERC concept. Due to the relatively greater usability and lower initial costs, the three-stage project reduces the amount required for the utilities to be fully rate stabilized. Supplement 4 provides an analysis of financing alternatives for the two and three stage project, the cash flow requirements, and an analysis of state contributions.* 5. Environment. The aquatic impacts of the Stage III of the project (Watana High Dam and Devil Canyon Dam) would remain essentially the same as the currently proposed project. The intermediate stages, Stage I (Watana Initial Dam) and Stage II (Watana Initial Dam and Devil Canyon Dam) would have different downstream effects because of less capability to reregulate the annual river flows, and consequently, a somewhat different thennal r!9ime for the Watana reservoir. During the early years of the ProjP.ct this cooler thermal regime results in an increased ice cover downstream from the dams as compared to the full developme·t, with a resultant increase in overtopping fl~ of cooler water into aquatic habitat in the side sloughs of the middle river. This may have a negative impact on the survival of incubating salmon in these sloughs. However, it is possible to mitigate for this impact by placing berms and dikes so as to completely protect the slough from overtopping flows. A decision to pursue three stage developrr~nt of the Susitna Hydroelectric Project would generally have no major adverse impacts or. any w11dlife or botanical resources within the project area. From 1 wildlife or botanical resource viewpoint, three stage development would 1n fact have several advantages over the current license application project. Under this plan approximately 15,000 acres of w11dlife habitat, which would be inundated by the High Watana impoundment, would not be inundated for roughly 10 years. Construction acttvities would continue over a longer period of time, and thus disrupt wildlife for 1 longer period. However, the level of disturbance to wildlife during Stage III construction would be 1 ess due to the reduced magnitude of the construction effort, the presence of an existing infrastructure developed during Stages I and II, and the extension of the time period during which public ~ccess would be prohibited. Since Devil Canyon pool would inundate one of the principal borrow areas for fill material for the Watana Damsite, it would be necessary ta ·open additional borrow areas when Watana Dam is raised in Stage III. The primary eff ect of staged construction on cultural resources are twofold. First, 1t would reduce the nunter of archeogical sites initially impacted by reservoir f1ooding. Second, i t would allow more time for studying those sites and for implementing the cultural resources mitigation plan. While t~e total construct ion workhouM would be less and the construction period would be less, and the construction period would be reduced by one year for Stage I as compared to High Watana, the total nunter of workeM required at peak construction would be similar. Workforce requirements for Stage II (Devil Canyon) would not change. A workforc e {which waul~ be smaller than for Stage I) would be required to ct onstruct Stage III. Therefore, the general size and timing of socioeconomic effects are not anticipated to differ substantially for Stages I and II than for the License Application. Adding Stage III would result in continued but smaller project-related employment opportunities and attendant socioeconomic effects. Supplement 5 provides an assessment of the environmental effects of the staged project and a comparison with the currently proposed project.* 6. Licensing. The staged project will require additional environmental evaluation by FERC staff to pennit preparation of a Final Environmental Impact Statement (FEIS). This additional period of evaluation could delay the completion of the FEIS, resulting i n a corresponding delay in the current hearing schedule. FE~C has asked to be promptly apprised of Board action so that appropriate resource planning can take place. D. Costs of Revising License Application 9217/307 A decision to proceed with revising the application is anticipated to increase the Power Authority project licensing costs by approximately $972 ,000 not 1 nc 1 udi ng 1 ega 1 fees. Tab 1 e 1 shows the source of the additional costs. Table 1. Estimated Additional Consultant Costs for Licensing to Cover Project Staging Engineering Environment Geotechnical Licensing and Permitting Logistics Need for PO'fier Transmission Hydrology External Review Panel Management and Adminis~ration Total Grand Total FY85 $94,000 56,000 20,000 as ,ooo 56,000 54,000 30,000 395,000 FY86 $298,000 149,000 20,000 59,000 46,000 5,000 577,000 $972,000 E. Project Schedule Considering only the licensing delays accurru1ated to date, the project full power on-line date has slipped from 1993 to 1997; this latter date can be changed to 1996 with staging. Table 2 shews on-line dates for the current and staged projects. Table 2. Online Oates for the Current and Staged Projects Assuming Ffnal Design Authorization in December 1985 Cun-ent Project Staged Project Watana Initial Dam Fi~t Unit Power Full Power H/A Oct. 1995 Dec. 1996 Devil Canyon Dam First Unit Power Full Power 2002 2002 2002 2002 Watana High Dam Oct. 1996 Dec. 1997 2008 2008 9217/307 First Unit Power Full Power The shorter construction time f.)"" \latana Initial Dam results in a one year reduction for the on-line date of the first stage. In addition, there is increased opportunity t o adjust on-line dates of the several stages to more closely match project eneqy and capacity with system demands . The on-line dates suggested here reflect the initiation of design a,.,d geotechnical programs in December 1985. The design and geotechnical programs are critical path activities and projected on-line dates are as sensitive to delays in initiating these programs as they aN! to the licensing date. F. Staff Findings. l. Staged construction is practical from an engineering point of view. 2. Although the Project, as presently incorporated in the Licensing process, has the optirrum dam height from an economic perspective, staged construction would provide several benefits: A) Staged construction would lawer initial development costs, but would increase real project costs about 9~. B) Staged construction would align project ener'9)' and capacity more closely with actual system demands, and would provide greater flexibility in responding to future rates of system growth. C) Staged construction would lower the required state investment in the project and could facilitate financing of the project. D) The environmental impacts of the staged project are only modestly greater than the current project and are within acceptable bounds with mitigation. G. Options 9217J1n7 1. Approve: A) Incorporation of staged construction of the Watana facilities as part of the proposed project; and B) Co~letion by stafi of required studies and preparation of materials necessary for their submission to FERC, including those rev1 s ions to the phys 1 ca 1 arrangement of the project other than staging, which are considered to be desireable means of reducing the project cost; and C) Staff enlisting advice from counsel for procedural action~ with FERC to the extent necessary to assure orderly and expeditious pursuit of the EIS process and, ultimately, the FERC license; and 0) Staff approaching FERC with counsel to submit necessary documentation to allay FERC's concerns with budget and schedule, and to detennine FERC License schedule implications 2. of staging. These implications will be corrrnunicated to the Board as soon as they are determined; and E) Taking funds for the License revision from the Sl .2 mil 1 ion Board Contingency Fund. A) Disapprove incorporation of staged constn.~ction of the Watana facilities and thereby confinn the Board's corrmitment to the currently proposed project, and B) Authorize staff to prepare materials necessary for updating the Application for License to reflect realistic on-line date. H. Recommendations Option 1. 9217/107 ALASU PO\l!R AUTBORilT SUSITNA BYDRO!L!CTRIC PROJ!CT STAGED CONSTR UC TION !HGIN!ERING I. Staged Construction Concept Supplement 1 The Application for License before the Federal Energy Regulatory Commis- sion (FERC), submitted February 1983, proposes a tvo-stage project on the Susitna River. The first stage would be a facility at the Watana Site with the dam built to an elevation of 2205 feet (see Figure 1-1), and a second facility at the Devil Canyon site, with the dam built to an eleva- tion of 1463 feet (see Figure 1-2). Planning studies i ndicate that this arrangement optimizes the power devel o pment of the Susitna River. While the propo sed dam height provides the most cost effective approach to achieving the optimum power development of the river, it requires a large initial investment in the Watana stage of the project and would result in a period during vbich it ia anticipated there would be some e.xcess capa- city. A three-stage project could be initiated by the construction of Watana Dam to a crest elevation of 202.5 feet (see Figure 1-3). With its crest at elevation 202.5, the dam would require substantially leu material, con- • true tion time would be reduced and only four of the planned six uni ta would be installed. Development of the transmission system would also be staged to match trani!Disaioo capacity with generating capacity (see Figure 1-4). These changes would allow Stage I of the project to be brought on K3820.10 850426 line at a lover coet, although vitb reduced capacity and energy. After completion of Stage I, Stage II, consisting of Devil Canyon Dam, vould be constructed. The Devil Canyon facility i1 identical vith that in the FERC Application for Licente. ~en load growth indicates the need, Stage III, Watana High Dam, vould be constructed by raising the Watana Initial Dam to the full height des- cribed in the FERC Application for License (see Figure 1-5). II. External Review Panel of Consultants The staged construction concept was presented in detail to the External Review Panel of Consultants on 15 April 1985. Their report (copy attsched) confirms the feasibility of the staging concept. The report also raises the issue of the surface powerhouse in place of the under- ground facility included 1n the FERC Application for License. The possibility of a surface po werhouse was evaluated in the summer of 1983. It was decided at that time not to attempt this change to the FERC Applciation for License in view of the potential for delay in the licensing process. Inasmuch as staging will involve a significant change in the FERC License process, it is believed appropriate now to study the coat effects of a surface powerhouse and, if warranted, include such a change to the FERC Application for License along with staging. III. Description of Facilities -Staged Concept Watana -Stage I The Watana Initial Dam would be built to elevation 2025 vith a maximum normal reservoir elevation of 2000 (see Figure 1-5). The internal zoning M3820.11 850429 2 of the earthfill dam would incline the impervioue core. The inclination of the core would reduce the amount of shell material required for atabi 1 i ty of the Stage II! dam that would be 1ubmerged by the S r.~ge I pool, and therefore placed during Stage I construction. When the dam i1 being raised, all the additional fill could then be placed in the dry during the seasonal dravdovn of the reservoir. The raiaing of Watana Da:n involves no adverse effects oa the safety of either the Stage I or Stage III dam, and no unusual construction operation i1 required during raising. Ao additioaal five feet of freeboard ia added in Stage I to facilitate flood control with the SmAller reservoir storage volume. The spillway and approach channel excavations would be deepened by approximately 185 feet bel o w that shovo in the F!RC license concept 1n order to accommod ate the reservoir during Stage I (see Figure 1-6). The rock excavated fr o m these ar e as woul d be used in the construction of the dam 11.nd wo uld minimize or eliminate the need for opening a quarry site during Stage I. The deeper excavation would be designed with suitable rock reinforcement and berms. The spillway in either concept would pass the potential maximum flood. For Stage I, there would be one outlet facility structure and two po wer intake structures (see Figure 1-3). The invert elevations would accoa~­ modate the lover reservoir elevations. The outlet facility in conjunc- tion with the four powerhouse units in Stage I 1o1ould be designed to dis- charge a 50-year flood before flow would be discharged over the spillway. The same applies to the current two-staged project. The powe rbouse ia Stage I would have four units. With the lower head available in Stage I, each unit would generate 130 MW for a total of 520 MW. M3820.12 The conetructioo echedule for Stage I hat been 1hortened by one year ever that vbich wae planned for in the F!RC licen•e concept. The shortening of the schedule ie a result of a decrease in the q~ntitiee of the fill material neceeaary for the Stage I conetr~ction. Devil Canyon -Stage JI Devil Canyon has aot changed from the F!RC licenee concept. Watana -Stage Ill The Watana Initial Dam would be raised to elevation 2205 with a maximum nol"lll41 reservo1r elevation of 2185 (see Figure 5). During seasonal drawdovn when the Stage I reservo1r elevation is belov elevation 1945 (the elevation of the upstream benn ) rockfill ~ould be in the dry on the upstream side of the dam. The material for the rockfill would be exca- vated from quarry A and the ~terial for the core and filters fr o m borC"oll a•eaa D, !, and F. The c~ncrete spillway ogee crest would be raised to !1. 2135 (see Figure 7). The outlet facility structure and the tvo power intakes would be raised to elevation 2201. A third power intake would be built in Stage III with an invert elevation at 2012. Two additional units would be added to the Powerhouse bringing the total number of units to six. After completion of Stage III, the capacity of the Powerhouse would increase from 520 M\i to 1020 KW because. of the increase in head on the four Stage I unite and the addition of two more units at 170 MW each. M3820 .13 850425 4 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1-1 FERC License Plan Layout for Watana Figure 1-2 F!RC Licenee Pian Layout for Devil Canyon Figure 1-3 Watana Plan Layout -Staged Construction Figure 1-4 Staged Construction Tranamission Line Figure 1-5 Watana Dam Embankment Cross Sections -Initial and Bigh Dam Figure 1-6 Watana Dam Spillway Cross Sections -FERC License Concept and Initial Dam Figure 1-7 Watana Dam Spillway Cross Sections -Initial and High Dam M3820/13A 850426 5 t N j 2/12/86 WA T ANA DAM GENERAL PLAN FERC LICENSE CONCEPT RESERVOIR El.2186 SC LE 0 600Ft. 0 c :D m -• ... / DEVIL CANYON GENERAL PLAN FERC LICENSE OR STAGED CONSTRUCTION I r-J SCALE: 1·. 200' 21,2185 FIGURE 1-2 t .. J 2112116 W AT ANA DAM GENERAL PLAN STAGED CONSTRUCTION CONCE~T / RESERVOIR I EL 200~ I '"Tl C) c :IJ m -' w SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT STAGED CONSTRUCTION PRESENTATION STAGED CONSTRUCTION TRANSMISSION LINES STAGE m FAIRBANKS KNIK ARM ANCHORAGE --EXISTINO INTI!RTI~ .,........,.. WAT ANA INITIAl OAW ·--• DEVIL CANYON ·--···• WATANA HIOH DAW "TI C) c :0 m _. I • SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT STAGED CONSTRUCTION PRESENTATION CROSS SECTION THAU THE DAM ST AQE I-WAT ANA INITIAL OAW RESERVOIR EL. 218! y L EL 220! STAQEJII-WATANA HIGH DAM FIGURE 1-5 SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT STAGED· CONSTRUCTION PRESENTATION WATANA SPILLWAY CROSS SECTION RESERVOIR EL. 2185 FERC LICENSE CONCEPT -----~r+-~ B STAOEXOOEE WA T ANA INITIAL DAM Ground Sutface Ground Surtac• A -A B-B , C> c :D rn ..... I (J) SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT STAGED CONSTRUCTION PRESENTATION W AT ANA SPillWAY RAISING ------·~'-· B RESERVOIR EL. 2000 STAGE :X OGEE WA T ANA INITIAL DAM RESERVOIR EL. 2 185 WATANA HIGH DAM Ground Surtac• B-B -n (;) c ::D m Mr. Ja~• !. Di1chinger Project M.an.ager AlaaLi Power Authority 334 Welt 5th Avenue Anchorage, Alaak& 99501 Subject : Sueitna Hydroelectric Project External Reviev Panel Engineering Sub-Panel Meeting Report No. 2 Dear Mr. Diachinger: April 16, 198S 1.8.2/9.3 .3 This letter i1 to tranamit Report No. 2 of the External Reviev Panel, Engineering Sub-Panel for the Suaitna Hydroelectric Project prep4red by the underaigued member•. A;/)ev H. ~Peck pd !ncloaure 1. INTRODUCT10N SUSITNA HYDRO!L!CTRIC PROJ!CT UT!RNAL RIVI~ PA.Nn !NCih~!RINC SU!-PAN!l MEETING R!PORT RO. 2 April 16, 1985 The underaigned three memmbera of the !xtern.&l Review Panel met in Anchorage on April 15 and 16, 1985 to conaider a 1erie1 of de1ign refine- ment1 to the Project licente applicAtion. Priz.ry emphaai1 vaa given to ataged conatruction of the project. In addition, inform& tion vu pra- aeoted on the project achedule, aome aapecta of the project layout, and future exploratory v o rk. pal mattera presented. 2. STAGED CONSTRUCTION Tbia report preaenta our vieva oo the princi- A proposal wu pr esented to cooatruct ifataoA Dam in tvo ltagea, firat (Suge I) to operate vith the reservoir at El 2000, and aecond (StAge III) at a fin&l elevation of 2185. Devil Canyon D«e vould be conatruct- ed (S~ge II) at an intermediate tim.e. The a.dvantagea of ataged con- initiaL fin&nci&l comm.i t111ent of 1 true tion the StAte, agree that lii.Ate coat. vere indica ted al reducing the and alloYing more fluibility the propoaal \IOU ld accompliah with StAge III invea t:ment, will in aeetina local growth. We theae objec:ti.,.ea. be higher. 'Ibe ulti- Technically, the propoul incl udea A modification of the internal %oni ng of ifatana D.m to allow raiaing the dam aafely and ec onomically, and deep- ening the spillway and approach channel to accommodate the reservoir at the Stage I elevation. M3730 850416 The c o re of the modified croll aection hu been incline-d upatreaa to r~uce the 01cu nt of thell material, required for ttabil it y of the SUit II da,., that vould be tubmeri~ by the Stage 1 pool and therefore mu tt be placed durin& Stage I con1truction. Wben the daa ia rai1~, all the addition.l fill can thu• be placed in· the dry vith only a ~ri.ef, modeat lowering of the· reaenoir. We reaard thia modification to be appro- priate. It involve• no adveru effect• on the ufety of either the Stage I or St.a&e III daa, and no unutual conttruction operation• durin& rai1ing. We vould anticipate that further D:>difi~tioo1 of t h<-. <.roll aection vill be found advaotaaeou• aa more detailed info~tion ia devel- oped re&arding the borrov uterialt. The tpi llway and approach channel mutt be deepened &.bout 200 feet for operation during Stage I. lc our judpent the quality of the rock vill per'lllit the deeper excavation vith . ufety vbeo deliitled vith 1uitabl1t alopel and ber'llll, and vith th' antici.patioo that more than routine rock reinforcement vill be required to meet local condition• that may be dia- closed by ob servation and i!Jstru oentation . w-hen the da11 it raised, both the power intake and apillway atructure1 vill require uteo1ion upward. The conce?tual 5cheoet described to u1 appear rea1onable. 3. PO\/ERBOOS! In the Panel' 1 report of Aug-uat 1983, we wrote that rHent atudie1 had ahovn aigoificant co•t advantage• for a turface powerhooae at compared to the underground layout pre1ent&d ia the featibility report . It vaa alto mentioned that the 1urface alternate required aome ujor open cutt, the colt of wbich were difficult to a11e11 becau1e of the lack of aub1urface infor-aatio'Q in thi1 are.&. It it 1till our view that the outdoor power- boule duig-n hu uay advantagea principally becauu it avoid• the mAjor unko ovn• inherect in the excavation of three large und erground chamber:~ and numerou1 tunnel• and ioteraection• vbich it not without probltl:ll even in the best rock cooditioaJ, We recognize that c o nsiderable weight vas given feasibility to the seasonal advaatagel of underg ou nd excavation in report. However, experience with similar ttructure• the i a Canada hat shovn th .lt outdoo r conttructioo can continue efficiently t hrougho ut the winter with proper protection of the vorkt. K.3 7 30. 1 8S0416 At pruent, there are three deep borin&• ia the riabt abut111ent in tbu aeoeral area o! the propoted chambeu. While much of the cere indicate• favorable rock cooditiont, there it ample evidence of clay-filled jointa, altered diorite, and n&ll •hear zonet . Uoder tbeu condition•, the rock cannot be u1umed to be a relatively bomoaeneout mat a but rather a rock potteuin& numeroua planu of veuneu, the aeom.etry of vbicL i.a unknown at thia tiae. Geotechnical invutiaationa for final duian vould requue 1everal addi- tional borin ga and an exploratory adit vboae total length could be in the range of 2000 feet. Tbia proaraz vould be expenaive and require a ma;or block of time on the overall explorati<>n acbedule. l..xploration for the outdoo:-l&yout vould require relatively abort b<>rioga principally to determi ne the depth of overburden and pouibly tvo or three abort a.dita, vhoae total length vould probably not exceed 150-200 feet. In conclusion ve believe that the 1urface powerbouae -.lternate baa aiani- ficant coat advantagea and s ho uld be studied in 1110re detail by the !':o ~i­ oeer. An urly decit i oo o n the preferred l ayout would re•ult i t: a redirection to the pr o posed exploration pro gram. 4. SCHEDULE An overall tcbedule of explo ration, dea i gfl and construction, includ in g detail on tupport facilitiea , wat preten t ed. Tbia schedule thov• fin1t power on line in 1997, 12 yeara frolll nov. !'be tchedale ia conatrained by the decition to do only support facil i ty (acceta and camp) exploration and study be!ora pove r ulu aareementa are obtained, and to do virtua l l .r n o conatruct i on of acceu, c'!-•P or ~nunent vorka before the FE R1= 1 i c eoae b at been iuoed , A two-year period it thovn between it luanct! o f the F'E RC licente and co~m:~eocement of fint ~rm.anent vork at the di version tu ooeh. Total conttruction time of the ~nunent . workt ia s ho wn as se v en and one-h alf yeara to first generation. MJ730.2 850416 We aaree that the impoeed re1traint1 are reaeonable and appropriate. We vould recommend, however, that con1truction of tbe temporary airetrii) ebould be advanced at leaet a year (to mid 1987) to minimize acce11 and eupport co1ta for exploration vork, and that exploration ahould be accel- erated vitb u much accompliehed in 1986 and 1987 u pouible in the predui111 eta&e before FERC liceneina. \'e hel that cuch of the e-xplo- ration muat be completed before the Baru-lbuco aeueral project duian me.morandum it final, and moet completed before feature deaian 111e111oranda are begun. Such exploration it alto required to develop reliable colt e1tim.ate1. Watana ia an important major project and eite data are •till quite limited. Tbe •even and one-half year eon1truction 1chedule for penunent worlr.a 1eem1 exceuive. !ued on our e-xperience on other 1imilar projecta in aimilar enviroamentl, it i1 our pre•ent judgment that tbil 1cbedule can be 1bortened by at lea1t one year. We a ls o believe that the tvo-year interval between iuuance of the F!RC licenu and start of diver1ion tunnel con•truction can be reduced by aevera 1 month I. 5. !XPLORA TION PRO GRAM Additional exploration vae done in 1984 at the reque1t of FERC. Eleven boring• were drille<! in the Filll, channel, propoeed uoderaround pover- bouae, and the tpillvay and diver1ion tunnel outlet•. Durin& thil meet- ing Harza-!baaco pre1ented a ecbedule for the overall e.xploration program vhich 1hov1 vork beina done for the 1upport facilitiu in the 1ummer of 1985. !eai nn.ina io urly 1986 and continuina euentially throuah 19 89, exploration it done for accu1 road a, the airatrip, and all civil vorka i ncluding divertion, the dam, required open cut•, and waterway•. At this time , however, no document i 1 available 1hovi.ng the required exploration for each project feature. As vu uplained, the producti o n of such a plan i • not part of the Eng i nee r 's current work assignment. We M.3730.3 850416 are concerned that, vitbout such a detailed plan, the exploration could proceed in a manner which is not JUaranteed to produce the required info~tion at the appropriate time. our report of August 1983. We upreased aimilar concerns in We recou=.end that APA reconsider their current poaition regardin& the expenditure of funds for engineering efforts. In our opinion the proj- ect would benefit greatly from a carefully oraani&ed plan of uploration which incorporates all available geotechnical information and speci- fically mentions the addi tioual infonu tiou required for duigu. It vu tentatively agreed that the next meeting of the !agineer Sub-Panel vill be held October 1 -4, 1985, vith arrival in Anchorage September 30. K3"30 .4 850416 Aodrev B. Merritt Ralph ! • Peck April 15, 1985 0900-0915 0915-0930 09 30-1000 1000-1015 1015-1030 1030-1100 1100-1130 1130-1200 1200-1300 1300-1415 1415-1430 1430-lSOO IS00-1530 1530-1600 1600-1700+ April 16, 1985 0900-1200 1300-1400 1400-1430 SOSITNA HYDROEL!C!RIC PROJ!C! !'ITt R NAL R.! VI !il P A.Nl1. ME!TING ON S!AGED COHS!RUC'!IOR Apri \ 15 and 16, 1985 Sixth floor Conferen~• looa AG!NDA Introduction• -Opening R~rka Sutitna Project Description Project M4ater Sch~ule Project Statui a) Licenaing Effort b) Engineering Effort Engineering Update a) Design Refinement• b) 1984 Exploration Progr&m c) Design Memorandum Concept Lunch Staged Cooatruction Concept 1985 Engineering Work !ffort a) Staged Conltruction b) Watana Support Faci1itie• Kuter Plan c) Wat&na CLap Expan1ion d) Future Geotechnical !nvea tigatiool DiiCUIIlOD Consultant• Prepare Report Ou tbriefing Future Involvement of Conau1tantl J. !. Diacbioger & J. c. Stafford c. D. Craddock c. D. Craddock w. !. L&raoo w. !. Llr•on c. D. Craddock M. P. Bruen c. o. Craddock C. D. Craddock C. D. Craddock C. D. Craddock C. D. Craddock M. P. !rueo Consu 1 tanta Conaultanta J. B. Diacbinger & C. D. Craddock )1)740.1 SUSITNA HYDRO!L!CTRIC PROJ!CT !.IT!R.NAL UVI ~ P ANn !NGIN!!RING SUB-PANlL M!!T1NG REPORT NO. 2 Attendee• April 15, 1985 Dr. R.a1pb !. Peclt Dr. Aodrev B. Merritt Mr. Jamea w. Libby James !. Dischinger John C. Stafford M. P. Bruen c. D. Craddock D. J. Du clr. J. L. Ehaaz w. !. Lara on P. R. Sa:muolia c. F. \fbi tehead A. Zaaara Conaultant Conaul tant Conaultant A1aau Power Authority Alaau Power Authority Barza-Ebaaco Barr.a-Ebaaco Haru-Ebaaco Rarza-Zbaa co Har:ta-Ebaaeo Ha r :ta-!ba • eo Harz:a-!baaeo Raru-l'll&ICO I Project Coats ALASKA POW!R AUlllORITY SYSITNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT STAGED CONSTRUCTION PROJECT COSTS AND !CONOHICS Supplement 2 Feasibility level costs of the Susitna Project have been estimated based on the FERC license concept and on the staged concept. A c o st comparison of the tvo concepts shows that full development of the staged con c ept is more expensive than the n:ac license con c ept as sh owu below. However, Stage I Watana of the staged concept is significantly less expensive than the Watana stage of the FERC li c ense concept as indicated in Table 2-1. Stage I lolatana II Devi 1 Canyon Subtotal Ill Raise Watana Total Cost Different i al TABLE 2-1 PRO JECT COSTS ($ MILLION 1982) FERC License $3,371 1,47 5 $4,846 $4,846 Staged Co ns tru e ti o n $2,528 1,492 $4,020 1,270 $5 '290 +$444 Table 2-2 includes a more detailed summary cost comparison of the FERC license concept versus the staged concept. 30411 850429 1 II !conomica An econom1c analyaia of the stag ed Suaitna project has shovn that it ia somewhat leas attractive economical l y than the FERC license concept, but ia still significantly lower in coat than the least-coat thermal alternative. The benefit-coat ratios of the FERC license concept compared to the least- cost thermal alternative and the staged concept compared to the least-coat thermal alternative are essentially the same as th o se presented to the Power Authority Board in February (i.e., 1.5 aod 1.4, respectively). 30411 8 50429 2 Item Land & Land Righ~a Powerhouse Da~, Reservoir & River Diversion Power Generation Equipment Roads, Rail and Air Facilities Electric Transmission Facilities Construction Facilities & Misc. Total Direct Costs Contingency Allowance Subtotal Licensing, Engineering, & Administration 30411 850421} Total Project Coat TABLE 2-2 PROJECT COSTS ($ MILLIONS 1962) Staged Constru Stage 1 Stage 2 Watana Devil !1. 2000 Canyon 32 22 75 72 947 561 71 67 191 119 294 113 279 154 1,889 1,108 272 160 2,161 1,267 367 225 2,528 1 ,492 tion Concept P!llC Liceose Stage 3 Total -Vat ana Watana Stages !1. 2185 & !1. 2185 1 to 3 Devi 1 Canyon 19 73 73 21 168 144 589 2,097 1,928 36 174 112 51 361 332 118 525 487 153 586 491 987 3,984 3,626 142 574 533 1,129 4,557 4,159 141 733 687 1,270 5 ,290 4,846 ALASIA POii!R Atri'BORI'l'Y SOSITNA HYDRO!L!CTRIC PROJECT STAGED CONSTRUCTION POWER AND ENERGY PRODUCTION Supplement 3 Under the staged construction acheme, the initial War:sna dam is about 180 feet lover than that propoaed in the F!RC license concept. This result• in lover head and leu flov regulation capability at Watana. The lover head reduces the Watana pover output, vhile the reduced reservoir storage reduces both the Watana and Devil Canyon eoerr generation. After raising the Watana project (Stage III), the power and energy generation from the two concepts are identical. Table 3-1 provides a comparison of power and energy production for the two concepts. A distinct advantage of the staged construe tion concept i a its abi 1 i ty to more closely match the expected Railbelt loads without developing excess capacity. Figures 3-1 and 3-2 demonstrate this effect. Figure 3-l shows the relation between Railbelt peak power demand and installed capacity for the least-coat thermal alternative. Figure 3-2 shovs the pover demand and installed capacity relations for the Sus i tna case. ~th the FERC 1 ic ease concept and the a taged concept are shovn. !xceaa reserve capacity e~ista vith the Susitna project during ita early years. The reserve capacity more closely matches system requirement• under the staged concept than the FERC license concept. This is especially true for the period 2002 through 2008. 30411 850426 1 ALASU POIJ!i AUTHORITY SUSITHA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT STAG!D CONSTRUCTION FINANCIAL ANALYSIS Supplement 4 The ttaaina of the Suaitna Project not only provide• the aaeana to better mat._:, . · '! load requirements of the Railbelt utilitiea, but it also reduces required rate stabilization funds. With the lover Watana Da11l, in the initial atagee, fever bonds are required to fund the construction of the first two stagea. However when Watana ia raiaed to ita ultim.ate height, inflation and real coat increases act to increase the overall bonding requirements of the staged concept versus the FERC licence concept. The bond si~ing analysi1 is based on the construction cash flow developed by Harza-Ebasco and the assumptions 1 is ted on Table 4-1. It is important to note that the analysis is based on the bonds having tax-exempt status and therefore a lover interest rate. Because over 25 percent of the Project output will be sold to non-exempt entities, the only way for the bonds to have tax-exempt status is thrJugh specific: legislation by the U.S. Congress exempting the Susitna Project (as was done for Bradley Lake)', State legisla- tion authorizing the REA cooperative utilities to reorganize into public utility districts, or State legislation authori~ing the Power Authority to direct bill the consumers in the railbelt area for costa associated with the Suaitoa Project. Even though the Project has been found to be economically feasible, the utilities' system costs with t he Project are higher than the alternative in the early years due to the high capital costa of a hydro- electric project. The staged approach reduces the capital costs during this period, and the amount required to bring the utilities' coats down to the alternative is correspondingly :educed. After reviewing the revised construction coats, we have found the required rate stabilization to be in the same order of magnitude as presented previously to the Board. As can be seen in Tables 4-3 and 4-4, the three- stage concept reduces rate stabilization from over $1.1 billion to $500-750 million if interest earnings are retained in the fund and fro11l $4.5 billion to $2.6 billion if they are not retained. Absent such rate stabili~at i on, the utilities' consumers would be faced with significant rate shock. 30451 850429 !ABL! 4-1 BOND SIZING ASSUMPTIONS o General Inflation Rate -6.5 percent o Bond Interest Rate -10.0 percent o Reinvestment Rates: -short-term -9.0 percent -long-term-11.0 percent o Amortization Period -35 years (level debt service) o Bond proceeds will be used to fund construction costs, licensing costa, debt service reserve, working capital, and reserve and contingency. o First bonds issued after FERC license issued and all monies expended to date are reimbursed and de posited into the Rate Stabilization Fund. 30451 850429 Bond Size: I WATANA II DEVIL CANYON SUBTOTAL III RAISE WAT~~ TOTAL Annual Debt Service: I WATANA II DEVIL CANYON SUBTOTAL III RAISE WATANA 30451 850429 TOTAL TA.BL! 4-2 BOND ISSUE SUMMARY (MILLIONS) FERC LICENSE CONCEPT $12,300 7,000 $19,300 $19,300 $ 1 '280 720 $ 2,000 $ 2,000 STAGED CONSTRUCTION $ 8,600 7,000 $15,600 8,400 $24,000 $ 890 720 $ 1,610 870 $ 2,480 T~L! 4-3 RAT! STABILIZATION COHT&I8UTIOH (MILLIONS) FERC STAGED LICENSE CONSTRUCTION YEAR CONCEPT CONCEPT 1985 $ 100 $100 1986 200 200 1987 200 200 1988 200 100 1989 200 1990 200 1991 40 $1,140 $600 CONCLUSION : A TOTAL STATE CONTRIBUTION IN 7HE ~~GE OF $500 to $750 ~ILLION WILL MEET RATE STABILIZATION NEEDS 30451 850429 YEAR 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 200 3 2004 2005 30451 850429 $ TABU 4-4 STAT! CONTRIBUTION COMPARISON OF PAY IN AND PAY OUT OF FUNDS (MILLIONS) FERC LICENSE CONCEPT StAGED CONSTRUCTION RATE RATE CONTRI-StA.BILI-CONTRI-STABILI- BUT ION ZATIOH BUT ION ZATION (PAY IN) (PAY OtJT) (PAY IN) (PAY OtJT) 100 100 200 200 200 200 200 100 200 200 40 250 54 0 270 550 240 510 220 450 180 410 150 740 460 670 42 0 550 381) 80 $1 ,140 $4.500 $600 $2,570 I. Introduction ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY SUSlTNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT STAGED CONSTRUCTION ENVIROh~NTAL ANALYSIS Supplement 5 Analyses have been made of the environmental implications of the staged concept for the Susitna Project. These analyses considered the potential environmental effects of the following factors identified as major differences from the FERC license concept: 1. Smaller reservou volume and reduced storage capacity for the Stage I Watana reservoir. 2. Decreased flow stability for Stage I, and to a lesser extent for Stage II in comparison to Stage Ill and the fERC license concept. 3. Lower downstream r1ver te'llperatures (abo ut l"C) and greater tee cover development with res •.1ltant water level 1ncreases. 4. Reduced area of inundated land for the Stage I ·~atana Reservoir which delays the loss of wildlife habitat and cultural resources due to inundation. 5. Possible need for different borrow areas aod quarry sites for Stage III development with atteodent 1ncrease in wildlife and cultural res o urce impacts. 424981 850426 6. Increaaed total time required for completion of the project vould prolona conatructioo related impacta on wildlife, aa vell aa aocioeconomic impacta. Findinga In general, analyaea of the differencea between the staged and FERC license concepti reveals no significant impacta which would effect Suaitna'a overall environmental fuaibility. Aa detailed belov, there are both poaitive and negative differential impacta associated witb the staged concept, most of which are judged to be insignificant. The major exception, increased overtopping flows into side slough salmon habitats in the middle river, is an impact alrea~1 identified for the FERC license concept, albeit at reduced frequency. Aa such, it has already been accounted for in the project mitigation planning process and can be avoided by increasing the extent of slough habitat protection. 424981 850426 2 II. Retervoir Operation, Temperature and Ice Studiet Su111111ary Retervoir operation vat aimulated for Stage• I, II, and III. Reservoir and river temperature analyse• and river ice aimulationt were made for a representative c!imate year for Stage• I aad II. These studiet of retervoir operation, reaervoir temperature, river temperature and river ice were made to compare the enviroamental effecta of ataged concept with the F!RC license concept, At summarized in Figure• 5-l through 5-6 and Tables 5-l and 5-2, the changes resulting from the staged concept would be: 1. Higher suiDIDer flow• and lower winter flow• in Stage t than vi th the FERC license concept. 2. Greater ice cover and higher winter water l eveh in the river below the Project in both Stages t and II. 3. Appr o ximately two weeks delay in the formation of a reservoir 1.ce cover (from mid November to late November). Stage Ill of the staged concept and the final stage of the F!RC li cense concept would be the same. Rt servoir Operation Stage t of the staged concept has a smaller reservoir storage volume than the FERC license concept. Less water can be sto red in the reservoir for 424981 850429 3 vioter operatioa aod the reaervoir operatina plaa for t h e ataged c oncept att~pta to take advantage of the required higher au~D~Der flova to generate eneru. The ruult ia that average aummer flova are about 4000 cfa. higher and average winter flova are about 2000 cfa. lover than vith the F!RC licenae concept. For Stage II the Watana reservoir vould fill earlier in the sul!lller than in the c ue for Stage t. Stage II flova would be very similar to the F!RC license concept. Simulation cf Stage III reservoir operation indicate• it would be the ume as the final stage of the FERC license concept. Fl o ws at all timea of the year are nearly identical. Reservoir Te mperature/Ice Stage I reserv oir t emp erature /ice simu lati on s s ho w the o utfl <"v temperatures to be nearly identical to the FERC l i cense c o ncept in the s ummer. Winter temperatures, h o wever , are r e duced fr o m the FERC li c e n se co ncept b y a bo ut 1• to 1.5°C. Although this difference is slll.111 its significan c e is 1n the additional ice pr odu c tion which would occur d o vnstream of the pro ject. There are No apparent r e asons for the redu c tion in winter t e mperatures. 1. More flov is passed through the reservoir tn the summer carrying heat with it, thus leaving less heat available for the winter season. 2. The reservo1r tee cover te nds to f o rm about No weeks later than vitb the FERC license concept. It is believed this is t he result of the additional viod induced mix i ng in the smaller reservoir. 424981 8 50429 4 SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT COMPARISON OF PEAK CAPACITIES AVAILABLE 3000~----------------~----------------~----- --FERC LICENSE CONCEPT ~b~~i~T '~!':5;i';$~Jt! 2000~------4-------~~~~~----~~~--~ RAILBEL T PEAK POWER DEMAND 0~-------L--------~-------L--------L-----~ 1984 1992 2000 2008 2018 2024 YEAR TA!LE 3-1 COMPARISON OF CAPACITY AND ENERGY FERC LICENSE CONCEPT: WATANA HIGH DAM DEV1 L CANYON STAGED CONSTRUCTION STAGE STAGE STAGE 400782.3 850425 1-WATANA INITIAL 2-DEVI L CANYON 3 -~ATANA HIGH DAM DAM INSTALLt:D CAPACITY (MW) 1020 600 1620 520 600 500 1620 AVG ANNUAL ENERGY ( GWRR) 3500 3400 6900 24 70 3120 1310 6900 SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT NON-SUSITNA ALTERNATIVE PEAK DEMAND AND CAPACITY 3000 1ooof=~ ... =··'='::~F=~~--~~~~-r-------i-----l '"---+ RAILBEL T PEAK POWER DEMAND 0~------~--------~-------L--------L---~ 1984 1992 2000 2008 2016 2024 YEAR , ' c J ii " . Tbe ratio of eurface area to volume ie about 30% higher for Stage t Watana Reservoir. Tbe delay in ice cover ie important becauae the reeervoir ice cover inaulatu the reservoir and reduce• heat lou . In Stage It, eummer outflow temperature• are eimilar to the F"ERC license concept. Winter temperature• are about 0. 5• to 1•c leu than for the FERC 1 icense concept. Since flove are about the ume for Stage II and the FERC licenee project, the uin reason for the vinter temperature difference is the delay in reservoir ice cover formation. River Temperature S i mulation studies shov that rLver temperatures vould follov the same trend as reservoir temperatures. That is, they would be similar in summer to the FERC license concept and about 1•c colder in winter. River Ice Results of the ice modelit:g studies show that because of the colder winter reservoir outflow temperatures the ice cover for both Stage I and Stage II would extend further upstream and cause higher river levela than the FERC 1 i cense conc ept. Computer runs for Stage I suggest an ice c over about three mi lea further upstream than for the FERC license concept. This ice cover , in turn , result• in an i ncrease in water levels in the river. Water levels were uo to four feet higher in an eight mile reach of the river between river miles 115 and 123 and about the same elsewhere. Without mitigation Slough 11 would be overtopped with Stage I but not with the FERC license concept. Melt out of the ice cover would be delayed by approximately three weeks. 424981 850426 5 C0111puter runa for Stage Il reaulted in an ice cover about seven a~i lea further upatream at ita maximum progression with water levela generally two feet higher between river milea 101 and 126. Slough• 8A and 9 would be overtopped with Stage I~ where they ~re not overtopped in the FERC license concept. Melt out would be delayed by about 1 week. Stage III river ice would be similar to the FERC license concept. 424981 850426 6 III. Aquatic Habitat Studie1 The estimated "vith project" flov1, water temperature• and tee processe• discussed above were compared between Mtural, F!RC licente concept and the staged concept condition• for a preliminary asses!111ent of impacts on aquatic habitats due to project operation. This comparison hat shown only alight changes in anticipated project impacts. These changes can be a.meliora::ed by changes in the mitigation plan. The major change necessary would be the need to increase the height and extent of artificial benns included in mitigation plana to protect aide slough habitats ~rom overtopping flows during the winter. Plow Smaller reservoir storage capacity during Stages I and II would result in a reduction in flow control during the summer and reduction of water available for power generation during the winter. Summer flows would be greater and less stable during Stages I and II than for the FlRC license concept. This would produce a slightly greater quantity (area) of rearing habitat for fish using the mainatem and side channels, however, the loss of flow stability would reduce ita quality. These factors should balance one another and result in apprvxillloltely equal production from summer rearing habitats for either the staged or PERC license concepts. Plows during August aod September would be higher during Stages I and II than for the FlRC license concept. These higher flows would provide improved access conditions for spawning chum and sockeye salmon to move into side slough spawning habitats. However higher, more extentive artificial benns would be required to protect these chum and sockeye salmon habitat• 424981 850429 7 from overtoppina flova, in p&rticul&r to protect the habitat ~dification atructuru vbicb vould be in place for aait igat ion purpotet. At discussed belov, theae aaore extenaive protective bermt are also required to pre·1ent overtopping flova in vinter. Winter flovs vould be .over during Stage I and II than for the FERC license concept. The difference between flowa in August and September and flowa through the winter would affect over-vinter survival of salmon eggs in the side slough apavn ing area a. Decreaaing flows during the fall would cause dewatering and f.-eezing of some ,..,awning locations. These flov decrease• would be greater during Stage I and II than for the FERC 1 iceose concept; however, both cases are an improvement over natural conditions. The improvement would simply be less vith Stagea I and II so there would be a loss of benefit until Stage III is operational. Temperature Water temperature during Stages I and II would be similar to those during t h e FERC 1 icense concept for the mid-summer and fa 11 period. Temper at urea through the winter and early summer would be slightly less (l-l.S°C). Such small temperature differences between the staged and unstaged projects ue not expected to effect survival of the evaluation species or production from aquatic habitats. Ice Processes The reduced winter vater temperatures during Stagea I and II would result to a longer duration of ice conditions, further upstream progression of tee on the river, greater ice thicknest and greater "river staging".U due to ice 11 River staging aa used herein refers to increases in water level in the river. This is different from use of the term staging in relation to Project construction. 424981 850426 8 11 c01Dpared to the FERC 1 icenae concept. Thue condition a would have the aruteat iaapact on over-.,intering and incubation aitu in aide alougha. Biaher river ataging vould 1ncreaae the frequency vith which the natural existing upstream berms on the alougha would be overtopped and ID4inatem vater be passed through the alouah habitata. Theae winter overtoppina event• are conaidered deleterious to juvenile aalmon over-wintering and salmon egg• incubating in the side slough habitats. The placement of artificial berms at the heads of important side sloughs baa been included in mitigation plana to protect these habitata during ope rat ion of the unstaged project. Protect ion of these habitats during Stages I and II would require higher, more extensive artificial benns. Inundated Tributary Habitat Some minor benefits would be re<.lized in that the Stage I Watana reservoir vould not inundate as much tributary mouth and tributary stream habitat vhich includes some good to excellent grayling habitat ~n a number of the streams draining into the proposed reservoir area. The Oshetna River, one of the better grayling streams 1n the area would not be affected at all by the Stage I Watana reservoir. This habitat would be lost eventually, of course, vhen the Stage Ill project is constructed. 424981 8501.26 9 IV. Wildlife and Botanical Reaourcea SummAry A deciaion to pursue the !ta&ed concept for the project vould, in general, reduce the net project impacta on wildlife and botanical resourcea during the initial stagea. The net effect would be positive from the standpoint of wildlife and botanical resource• for the time between Stagea I and III. The potential impacta of the development of Borrov Area F. a high quality wildlife habitat area (which would eventually be rehabilitated). are not considered to outweigh the benefits of; 1) delayed habitat lou, 2) more time for local wildlife populations to adapt to the habitat loaa and movement restrictions caused by the reservoir; and 3) more time to refine and implement required mitigation programs, and the other advantages of the staged approach. Habitat Inundation The major changes with the staged concept would be that approximately 17,000 acres of wildlife habitat, which would be inundated by the Watana High Dam, would be preserved for roughly 10 years. Vegetation on the 17,000 acres of preserved land consists moat ly of forests. On the south side of the impoundment black spruce predominates with interspersed vertical bands of tall shrubs. South-facing slopea on the north shore of the impoundment have greater areal excent and more diverse vegetation patterns. White spruce 1s the most common forest type, although open mixed forests (consisting of white spruce and paper birch) and black spruce forests are also represented. Birch shrub and mixed low shrub areas are present, especially near the mouth of Watana Creek. Much of th ia land area consists of the gentler sloping port ions of habitat than the the eventual impoundment, which represeota higher steeper canyon walls for most wildlife species. 424981 850426 10 quality Extensive tracts on both 1ide1 of the Watana Creek confluence on the north aide of the impoundment and band• of land on both 1ide1 of the impoundment between Wa c:ana and Deadman Creek1 repruent about half of the 17,000 acre1. These area• provide valuable wildlife habitat, particularly for mooae and bla c k bear. In the caae of the black bear, staged develoment would delay the lou of important denning and foraging habitat. The Watana Bigh Dam would inundate about 55% of the known den aitea in the vicinity of the Watana impoundment, while the Stage I Watana Dam would inundate only 35% of these den sites. Another advantage of the staged developa~ent ap;>roach would be that local wildlife populations would be allowed to adapt to the habitat lou and movement restrictions resulting from impoundment, in atagea over a greater period of time. This could be particularly valuable to anim.ala that are expected to suffer carrying capacity losses such aa moose and black bear, since overpopulationa of adjacent habitats and the accompanying overutiliza- tion of adjacent forage resources, would also occur in stages over a greater period of time and may result in less damage to these adjacent habitats. Although significant impacts to Dall sheep use of the Jay Creek mineral lick are not expected to result from the Watana Bigh Dam impoundment, the Stage I Watana Dam would produce even fever problema relative to the Jay Creek lick. Big Game Movement The width of the Stage I Watana Reservoir would also be significantly narrower than the Watana Reservoir in the FERC license coucept. The Watana initial reservoir would be leaa than one mile vide throughout the majority of ita length, and would thus represent leaa of a barrier to big game movements than the reservoir in the FERC license concept. 424981 850426 11 Rapt on The delayed development of the Staae III Watana Oa111 vould also benefit raptora. One golden eagle and one bald eagle ne1ting locution occur oear the el. 2200 contour and ID&Y be ia~pacted by the development of Stage III. However, the Stage I development vould produce a re•ervoir level lov enough to prevent impact• to these nesting locations during the approximately 10- year period between Stage 1 and Stage II I development. Thi• vould provide additional time for developing and implementing the artificial nest program to mitigate for lost raptor ne ~! locations . Impacts of Longer Project Construction Schedule A more subtle, but real, advantage of the staged concept approach i • that data collected and experience gained through the monitoring of construction and operation effects and mitigation success during Stage• I and II vould permit refinements to construction, operation, and mit i gation plans during Stages II and III so that the ultimate impacts on vildlife and botanical resources would be lessened. One potential disadvantage of the staged approach is that the construct i on period is lengthened, thereby increasing the length of the period that wildlife populations are exposed to construction-related wildlife disturbance and mortality factors. Howe v er, the level of disturbance during Stage III development would be less than during the earlier stages due to the reduced m.agni tude of the construction effort and the presence of an existing infrastructure and support facilities devel o ped during Stage I. More importantly, assuming that public acces• is restricted during the entire construction period, the elimination of public access during Stage III and the resultant elimination of a variety of associated disturbance and mortality factors would more than compensate for the construction-related factors. 424981 850426 12 Borrow Areaa The moat important diudvantage of the ltaged developa~ent approach ia the probable requirement to obtain Stage III borrow material• from Borro w Area F. Borrow Area E, a primary source for materials for Watana Dam in the FERC license concept and for Stage I of the st•ged concept, would be partially inundated by the Devil Canyon Reservoir during Stage II construction, increasing the likelihood that Borrow Area l would need to be used during Stage III (use of Area F is cons i dered un l ikely for the FERC license concept). Borrow Area F occupies about 5 miles of the middle stretch of Tsusena Creek fr om just above the high waterfall to Tsusena Butte. It includes areas adjacent to the stream and extending up to abcut 1500 ft. away . This area provides important habitat for a variety of wildlife including moose, black bear, brown bear, and other species associated with tributary stream bottoms. Because of the areal extent of this bottom area outside of the imp o undment zones, extensive use of Borrow Area F could substantially increase the total amount of high quality wildlife habitat disturbed by the project. Alth o ugh bo rr ow area rehabilitation would be conducted, habitat impacts would be experienced for many years. On the positive side, the staged concept probably would reduce the amount of caterial required fr0111 QuarrJ Site A because all quarry material for Stage I would be obtainable through excavation of the deeper spillway requ i r e d for the staged concept. Although the habitat value of this area is not high , the general level of habitat disturbance and loss in the general project area would be less. 424981 850426 lJ v. !ffectl of Staging on Cultural Reaourcea SUDID&r] The primary effecta of staging on cultural reaource vould b~ to reduce, at least initially, the number of archeological site• impacted through construction and reservoir flooding, and allov more time for study and implementation of mitigation plana. Both are significant positive benefit• frat~~ the cultural reaource• atandpoint. Since ltaging doea not alter the schedule or design of the Devil Canyon Dam and Reservoir, ita effect u essentially neutral. Use of Borrow Areas The only potential effect noted is that Borrow Area E uy be partially or completely covered by the Devil Canyon impoundment prior to Stage III Watana construction. Alternative borrov sites uy have to be used for thia latter construction. This could have ao impact oo other archeological remains. In particular, the likelihood of utilizing Borrow Area F for Stage III construction would be high. As discussed below, this is an archeologically important area. Staging of the Watana Dam construction would make a greater difference to cultural resources, though on balance the effect• are positive. As the construction schedule in Stage I would be speeded up for a completion date of 1996 instead of 1997, there would be somewhat less time available in which to implement mitigation plans. However the scaled-back construction of Stage I would require less borrow, resulting in leu damage due to removal of fill. this is particularly important in Borrow Area F (the Tsusena Creek area), which contain a total of nine recorded archeological sites (see Table 5-3). 424981 850426 14 Reduced Area of Inundation Tbe Stage t impoundment level of el. 2000 would ruult in inundation of 49 recorded archeological eitee (see Table 5-4). Thi1 i• one-third fewer than would be flooded perm.anently by reservoir level of el. 2185 in the PERC license concept. The 24 sites between el. 2000 and el. 2185 contour1 would be av~i lable for etudy for a much longer period under the staged concept than in the FERC license concept. Staging would allow additional time for implementation of mitigation plana for these 24 sites, as Stage Ill construction i• nol scheduled for completion until 2008. A final consideration concerns how staging vould affect sites adjacent to but outside the actual project area. Adjacent sites are defined as those lying within one-half mile of a project boundary. Though not affected directly, these sites are subject to impacts due to ancillary construction activity, improved access, greater likelihood of erosion, and increased traffic. A lower reservoir level would reduce the ·eservoir perimeter temporarily leaving more archeological sites outside the one-half mile zone. It should be noted, however, that the adjacency distance u arbitrarily defined, so that other factors such as topography may be more significant. Nevertheless, approximately 15 adjacent sites would fall outside the one- half ruile zone for a el. 2000. reservoir level. This represents 31 percent of the sites defined as adjacent in the PERC license concept. 424981 850426 15 V1. Socioeconomic Analyeie !mploy~ent and Population In general, the etaged concept vould •lightly decrease pealt conatructiou employ111ent to about 2,950 (in 1994) and extend the length of employment to the year 2008. Tbe projected construction emplv1111ent pealt for the FER•: license concept vould be about 3,000 (in 1994) and emplo1111ent would end il 2002 (see Table 5-5). Population increase• generated by the Project generally follow the same pattern as Project induced emplo1111ent. The magnitude and duration of population impacts would therefore foll c v the trends of employment impacts. The duration of impact would be boger by five year• under the staged project but the magnitude at pealt would not be significantly different . Community Facilities and Services Impacts on demand for facilities and services are a consequence cf population impacts. Since the magnitude of population impacts are similar in both the staged and ITRC license concepts, impacts on communit:t facilities and services are likely to be similar. Tbe major differenctl would be that impacts would o ccur more gradually and last longer for thE staged concept. The demand levels from 2002 until 2008 would be well belo10 peak demand for either the FERC license or staged concepts. Prolonging the duration of Project-induced demand would have on~ positive effect. That is, it delays or reduces excess capacity of facilities that would be built to meet pt!ak demand. Since most collllllunities in the impact ar~?s ~-·:!!constantly increasing baseline populations, the fad;,ities con- structed to serve peak project related demand would evet.tually be needed after the Project construction ends. The period of excess capacity, between the time peak project demand ends and baseline demand catches up, produces a financial burden for maintenance and operation coete for underutilized facilities. burden. 30411 8 50429 The staged concept would reduce or eliminate this financial 16 TA!L! 5-l SOSITNA HYDRO!L!CTRIC PROJECT MAXIMUM SIHULAT!D RlV!R S!AG!S WINTER 1981-82 PLOW CAS! !-VI, INYLOW MATCHING 2001 AND 2002 !N~RGY DE}{ANDS Stage I High Watana + High Threshold Watana River Mile Elevation Alone Watana + Devil Canyon Slough or Side Channel Devil 50' Drawdovo Whiskers Gash Creek 6A 8 HSII HSII Curry Hoose 8A West 8A ~ast 9 9 u/s 4th July 9A 10 u/s 11 d I • ll 17 20 21 (A6) 21 22 101.5 112 .o 112.3 114.1 115.5 115.9 120.0 123.5 126.1 127. 1 129.3 130.6 131.8 133.7 134.3 135.3 136.5 139.3 140.5 141.8 142.2 144.8 367 On known (Opland) 476 482 487 Unknown Unknown 57 3 582 604 Unknown Unknown 651 657 UnknoWll 687 UnknoWll 7 30 747 755 788 LRX-3 Ice Front Starting Date Maxi~um tee Front Extent (River Mile) Melt-out Date 12-28 134 3-2J Canyon 3 Levels !3691 456 459 476 ~ 520 548 571 581 [ill] 616 627 649 655 667 682 714 728 746 7 52 783 12-30 126 3-19 l37o I 459 461 ~ 522 553 57 3 584 606 619 630 649 t 655 \ 667 682 714 728 746 7 52 785 12-29 133 4-l • c==J Indicates locations where maximum river stage equals or exceeds a known slough threshold elevation • All river stages in feet 30421/TBL 850426 m&XliDlliD up- stream exten of i c e fro nt Slough or Side Channel Whiskers Guh Creek 6A 8 KSII MSII Curry Moose 8A West 8A East 9 9 u/a 4th July 9A 10 u/s 11 d/a 11 17 20 21 ( A6) 21 22 TABU 5-2 SOSITNA BYDRO!L!CTRIC PROJ!CT MAXIMUM SIKULAT!D iiV!i STAG!S WATAAA ONLY: 2001 !KERG'! DEMAND CAS! !-Vl FLOWS, INFLOW-MATCHING WINTER 1981-82 River Mile 101.5 112 .o 112.3 114.1 115.5 115.9 120.0 123.5 126.1 127 .1 129.3 130.6 131.8 133.7 134.3 135.3 136.5 139.3 140.5 141.8 142.2 144.8 'n\reshold !levation 367 Onltnovu (Upland) 476 482 487 Unkoovu Onknovu 57 3 582 604 Unknovu Unltnovu 651 657 Ooltoovu 687 Onltnovu 7 30 747 755 788 High Wa taDA Iofl-Matcb IIITJ 458 460 475 ~~~I 524 552 i 621 633 654 660 668 684 715 729 747 7 54 787 Ice Front Starting Date 12-28 134 2-23 Maximum Ice Front !xtent (River Mile) Kelt-out Date Stage I Watana Infl-Matcb 'n\rougbout 12-12 137 4-12 maximUIIl up- stream uten of-ice front • Indicates locations vhere maximum viver stage• equal or exceeds a knovn slough threshold elevation • All river stages in feet 30421 /nL 850426 BORROW AR!AS : A B c D E F G B I J TABL! 5-3 SITES APP!CT!D !T LICENS! APPLICATION COHSiiUCTlOH None* None* TLM 054, 055, 078, 081, 084, 085, 086, 087, 088, 094,095,096,097,201,211,213 None* TLM 022, 023, 258 Adjacent to E: 024, 035 TLM 176, 188, 202, 203, 209, 210, 212, 214 Adjacent to F: 164 None* None* TLM 034, 178, 259 TLM 080 Adjacent to J: 043, 058, 063, 177, 200, 229, 230, 233 K TLH 030 L Sone* Devil Canyon Reservoir TLH 023, 034, 178, 252, 253, 258, 259 Adjacent to Devil Canyon Reservoir: 022, 024, 027, 029, 030, 118 *None: No recorded archeological 1itea 424981 850426 TABL! s-4 SlT!S A.FFECT!D !Y STAGED CONSTRUCTION OF WATANA DAM/R!SERVOil STAG! I (2000' Reaervoir Level) TLM 033, 040, 043. 050, 058, 062. 063, 065, 072. 075, 077, 079, 080, 102, 104. 115. 194, 199, 200, 216, 220, 221. 222, 224. 22 5, 226, 227, 228, 229, 230, 231, 232. 233, 234. 235, 236, 238. 239, 240, 241, 242, 243, 246. 247, 248, 249, 250. 2 56, 257 ( N-49). STAGE I II (2000-2185' Reservoir Level) TLK 039, 048, 059, 060, 061, 119, 126, 169 J 171. 173, 174, 175 , 182, 184. 196, 204, 206, 215, 217. 218, 223, 237, 244, 251 (N•24). ADJACENT SITES (Within 1/2 Mi. of 2185 Reservoir Level) TLM 026, 031, 032, 038, 042. 04 7. 049, 064, 073, 074, 076, 12 0. 12 1, 122. 12 3. 124, 12 5. 127, 128, 129, 130, 131. 132. 133, 134 , 135, 136, 139, 140. 141. 142. 143, 14 5. 14 7. 148, 159, 165, 166, 167 .. 177. 18 3. 185, 189, 190, 195, 198 , 207, 219 (N-48). Sites Outside the One-Half Mile Zone, Stage I (2000' Reservoir Level) TLM 026, 032, 038, 042, 049, 073, 074, 076, 120, 122, 159, 189, 195, 198, 207 (N-15). Sites Adjacent to Watana Construction Area TLM 01!», 018, 160, 165, 166, 167, 172, 192, 197 (N•9) 424981 850426 Curreat Project 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 01 02 03 04 OS 06 07 08 424981 850426 Wataaa -o- 1,017 1, 512 1,047 1,082 1,776 2,142 2,721 2,069 938 259 -o- -o- -o- -o- -0- -o- -o- -o- -o- -o- -o- Devil -o- -o- -o- -o- -o- 167 167 321 501 482 1,182 1, 181 1,196 1, 572 74 7 126 -o- -o- -o- -o- -o- -o- TA.BL! 5-5 YEARLY P!Al WORKFORCE Total Staae 1 -o--o- 1, 017 637 1,512 825 1,047 1, 028 1,082 1,164 1,943 1,384 2,309 1,837 3,042 2. 625 2,570 1, 8 31 1,420 350 1,441 -o- 1. 181 -o- 1 ,196 -o- 1,572 -o- 74 7 -o- 126 -o- -o--o- -o--o- -o--0- -o--o- -o--o- -o--o- Staged Staae II Staae 1 II Total -o--o--o- -o--o-637 -o--o-825 -o--o-1,028 -o--o-1,164 167 -o-1,551 167 -"o-2,004 321 -o-2. 946 501 -o-2,332 482 -o-832 1 ,182 -o-1,182 1,181 -o-1. 181 1 ,196 -0-1,196 1. 572 -0-1. 5 72 74 7 -o-74 7 126 410 536 -o-842 842 -o-1,055 1,05 5 -o-1,510 1,510 -o-1,446 1,446 -o-1,057 1,057 -o--o--o- I 60 -40 0 8 -• (./) 30 lJ.. u - ~ 20 0:: a I u (./) . -. 0 10 . • __,--...... -.;r ·--·-. ... . . . ..... - 0 ttFW .1M ..u.. 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STAGE 1 WAT~ Wf~H~R PERIOO • I 11AY 81 -30~11Z £t-4f:RGY l:EI1A'JO • 2002 FL~ C~ • E-Vl (Ff~Tit-(} POLICY • II#LD4-t"HCHIWO 3 JNTAt<E LEVELS. W FT ~ AT D.C . ~IOH'7 ~l'f:Mta ~ NO •. OCIIJ02L, OC8lClZD ... _ ... -----..... -. -. !'tAft Af'ft ~ P'04£ft AUT HeAl TY _,,..-...o I OEVJL CAHTC>-4 R(5ERVQJ1t 15 lfl.l.ATE 0 0 115CKftX S HID4 NAT~ VS . 5lAG: I ~IJ8X) ..IJINT W[)(llll( ~u.-F--• ........ -n C> c :D m "' ' I\) I'J lZ II J c'f ~ , :·1#: . tJ 10 I . . . . . 0 ~ : \ I w .. (_) •• 8 If:: ·:W ·. ~f -7 .· . , ... 14 ... (l ~· 6 .. 1: /f .. h.J t-s w I U) .. a f_ w _J 3 / w lr 2 I 0 ttfW ..... .A.l.. ~ UXlPG· OM..-.l- · -----• • • ·8ffiGI I ..,_.,._ ........... • ~~ l "· ~ ' ' h. ~ ~ ~1 --....... -r--._. . ~ ; ... . . . . . . .. -.... -. . . - ~--.... -. . ...... • EEP OCT NJV DEC .... fErJ tWt ,.,_ A.~~ MlltOtiTY __ ._." I ""'TANA NELEAS£ T~MTlAES MAT,..,_ A(li["VOI" WEATH(R f'(RlOO • 1 I1A'f sa -lO ~ a fNfAG'I' II~O ' 2001 fLa..6• CA6( (-VI IUtU.ATEO ltfl(~ lOP5 <P£RAT I t«i POLl CY • JtLOHtATCHI NO HI04 o-t 115 . 5,._ I HIOH ~T~ VS. ST I Mllt~IA6CD AIMJ ll(.ln"" RIEFERf.a ~ t-.0. • WA8J0ll. WAIIlOil -.... -t-_-·1 -.... ., C) c ::0 m "' • ~ 13 12 tl - u 10 . (_") ~ ~ I • lll I . n 8 . V0 . \ . . .. . ·-\ I .. 7 .. fiJ: j ~ " . .. . . n I 0 I . :L 6 /f' I I I I I . 1\ h.J . . •: ' t--. 5 .If I, L·l \ w ~ (f) • l a I ~ UJ _J 3 ~( l~ ---w ~-. . , . 0:: .. 2 . .. J . . . ... -.. a "' • • e • • -- I 0 l'tAY ..A.JI4 ..ll. fU) SEr OCT ~" DEC Jv.l FEB ,._ Arft A...A61<A ~ MJT~ITY LUVIJ• -..-~· D.C. want HIOt tlmiHA ~"IL CAllY~ ~LEASE f[rft:MTlll£5 DfVIL CAH'fo-. M:SERYOIR ·-·····--·D .C . WllH etiOE liM,...._ HIGH WATANA VS . 6T~ J WATA-4A 51tU..ATID MLUWi£ l&r5 WEAT...:R PERt oo I a 11AY a a -30 Af"ft ez O£ROY CE~O • 2002 FLOo4S• CAS[ E-Vl HIOt .-tiN' V. .51Aa I CFE:MTit-0 POLICY I lt#'LOW-~TCHINO ~..:X) ..6)1Hf Ill."'~ 3 INTAKE LEVEL6 . 50 FT 0RAW00WN AT D.C . Af'[M~ ft..JN NO •. IX8102\... OC8l02Q --.-~--1 -··--h.TIOH'? .,., 0 c :D m (I' I ... D e g r e e s c 1 2 10 8 6 4 2 Susllno River Temperolures-2001 Demond, River Mile 130 Molchin Inflow, 1981-1982 " \ \. '• \' ' ., \ \ /' ,1\ . \, \ /. . \ ,'' \ \ \ - Nolurol Sloge High I ' /, 1.: '• ,·,\ ,: I \ " '• '/' ' ' . ' ' ' • I • ' I I \ ,. , " I I \I , . I . I I \I I , ' '' , I ., t: '• ~ • I • /• l -~ /:' , .. ,. MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP Monlh "TI C) c :D m Ul • Ul D e g r e e & c 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Susitna River Temperatures-2002 Demand , River Mile 130 ~T & DC, Matching Inflow, DD=50 al DC, 3 Shutler&, 1981-82 ,-. f /..._,, .. ' ' /1 \ 0 I • II I ' ' /• ,'_j \ \•: I ' I I I \~· ~ Natural Slage . High ' l o • : );, ,' ', II '' ' f I 1 'I 0 I , ' I , .. I \ ·~ ~~ • ~I i \.'" 'I ~~' I, , I I I ,-~ ,'' J~·--' I I' I , \, , ,~. ,' I ,' ' ... ' I -I MAY ~UN ~UL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC ~AN FEB MAR APR MAY ~UN ~UL AUG SEP Monlh 'TI 0 c :D m (It • (J)