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HomeMy WebLinkAboutSUS702. f" LJ INTRODUCTION [ L The State of Alaska is proposing to construct a two dam,1620 megawatt hydroelectric project (U.S.Federal Energy Regulatory Commission No.7114)on [ the Susitna River approximately 190 km NNE of Anchorage.A study is underway to determine the effects this project may have on the indigenous aquatic [ resources of the Susitna drainage,and in this paper we report on studies of [ the expected alteration of the instream temperature regime of the Susitna r-, River (Meyer et ale 1984).Twenty species of fish are known to inhabit the U The Susitna River flows 520 km from its source at the glaciers on the southern slopes of the Alaska range to its mouth at Cook Inlet near Anchorage This study focusesSusitnabasin(table 1). economically valuable Pacific salmon species, which annually enter this river to spawn. on the most numerous and approximately two million of rlLJ c f~ l'--: summer turbidities of 74 to 730 NTU,and winter turbidities <1 NTU (R&M (figure 1).It is seasonally turbid from the glacier melt contribution with Consultants,Inc.and Larry A.Peterson and Associates 1981).The river r-.l]lJ o [and summer rains,and low during the winter.With the project in place,high drains a basin of approximately 50,800 sq km,the sixth largest river basin in the state.Like all northern rivers,the Susitna exhibits strong seasonal D variation in flow,high during the spring and summer due to breakup,snowmelt summer flows would be captured for winter release when the demand for power generation is greatest. The project would be constructed in two stages.The first stage,Watana f: L [ dam and reservoir,would be located at river kilometer (RK)296 (296 km upriver from the mouth)and is scheduled for completion in 1996.The last [ year Watana dam would be operated alone is 2001.The second stage,Devil [ 33RB-OIOa - 3 -[ -" Table 1.Common and scientific names of fish species recorded in the Susitna River basin. Lampetra japonica (Martens) Thaleichthys pacificus (Richardson) Thymallus arcticus (Pallas) Coregonus laurettae Bean Prosopium cylindraceum (Pallas) Coregonus pidschian (Gmelin) Salmo gairdneri Richardson Salvelinus namaycush (Walbaum) Salvelinus malma (Walbaum) Oncorhynchus gorbuscha (Walbaum) Oncorhynchus nerka (Walbaum) Oncorhynchus tshawytscha (Walbaum) Oncorhynchus kisutch (Walbaum) Oncorhynchus keta (Walbaum) Esox lucius Linnaeus Catostomus catostomus (Forster) Lota Iota (Linnaeus) Gasterosteus aculeatus Linnaeus Pungitius pungitius (Linnaeus) Cottus cognatus Richardson - 4 - :-j -.....•. J '] -~- Canyon dam,would be located downstream at RIC 243 and is scheduled to be operational in 2002.The development scenarios discussed in this paper are Watana in the year 2001 and Devil Canyon plus Watana in 2002. The Susitna River has a mean annual flow of 275 cubic meters per second (ems)measured at an index station in the study reach.Mean monthly flows for the summer months (June through August)range from 590-740 ems,with peak flows normally occurring during June. reaching winter lows of 25-30 cms. Flows begin receding in September, Under the regulation of the project,flow variation would be dampened considerably.With a Watana-only configuration,mean monthly flows would -dr --' -~ range from 210-340 cms,with peak flows released in August to facilitate access for salmon spawning and during winter high-demand periods.With the addition of the second dam,mean monthly flows would range from 200-320 cms, ~ d with higher flows more uniform throughout the winter summer flows. Reservoirs store heat as well as storing water. and slightly lower The temperature of d ~ ~ .,ji ....ii ~ reservoir releases is expected to be cooler than natural during the summer, and warmer than natural during the winter.Since both reservoirs are expected to thermally stratify,multilevel intake structures have been incorporated into the dam design which would allow some degree of control on the release temperature. Warmer-than-natural releases during the winter would alter the normal ice processes below the dams,delaying the formation of an ice·cover and relocating the upstream end of the ice front.Cooler releases in the summer likewise would alter river temperature for a considerable distance downstream. To quantify this temperature change,an instream temperature model was used. 33RB-Ol0a - 6 - [J The model simulated effects of the hydroelectric development in an 80 km f ' _0 reach below the Devil Canyon dam.This is the only habitat available to salmon in the upper part of the Susitna River,as the Devil Canyon dam site blocks salmon passage further up river.Two large tributaries converge with the Susitna downstream from this study reach,the resultant flow more than double the flow upstream from this point.The dampening effect of these tributaries,both with respect to flow and temperature,creates a distinct escapement of 26,060 chum,2,325 sockeye,29,300 pink,2,900 coho,and lower boundary to the study reach.In 1984,the study reach received an [ was run for a variety of power demands and hydrologic and meteorologic examined with respect to effects on salmon.This paper discusses the process 13,800 chinook salmon (Barrett,Thompson and Wick 1985).The modeling system of instream temperature modeling and our subjective assessment of effects of rlLJ D uDownstreamtemperatureresultsfromthesesimulationswereconditions. predicted with-project temperature regimes on salmon.c [J [J [ [] L l L 33RB-010a - 7 -L ....., -:l ~ =: ....., -. ::J 9 .J '1 ... -' -.J "" -:! ..1 ;;::: METHODS Assessment of temperature impacts on salmon involved a three stage process.First,natural and with-project temperature regimes were predicted through use of a stream temperature simulation model for a study reach of mainstem river which extends approximately 80 km (RK 240 to RK 160)below the proposed dams.Next,fish temperature tolerance criteria were developed based on literature,laboratory,and field studies.Finally,these criteria were compared with the temperature model output and an assessment of the effects was made • THE STREAM TEMPERATURE MODEL The Stream Network Temperature Simulation Model,SNTEMP,was originally developed by the U.S.Fish and Wildlife Service's Instream Flow and Aquatic Systems Group in Fort Collins,.Colorado (Theurer,Voos and }liller 1983).The model requires hydrology,meteorology and stream geometry data as input and computes heat flux relationships and transports heat through the system.The model is one-dimensional,producing cross-section averaged mean weekly temperatures at any mainstem location in the study reach • A number of modifications were made to the model to better simulate northern conditions. 1.A monthly variable shade factor was incorporated to account for the stream shading from topographical features,a serious concern in northern latitudes where solar angles are very small. 33RB-010a - 8 - [ 2.The model was modified to accept non-constant lapse rates for air [ temperature and humidity.This is of special value during the winter when temperature inversions often occur.Ii l_.J 3.An influent groundwater temperature submodel was developed and incorporated into SNTEMP.This routine considers the effects of the depth to groundwater and the cyclical temperature pattern resulting from 1-1 l~ variations in elevation and time. 4.Regression models were developed to fill discontinuous temperature records,a common problem in Alaska.o o Four summers and five winters were selected from the meteorological record as representative periods of normal and extreme hydrology and D identified. meteorology.Simulations were run under these conditions for natural (i.e., without dams),single-dam (Watana)and two-dam (Watanaplus Devil Canyon) found naturally and predicted to occur with the project in place was D o lJ In this way,the range of downstream temperaturesprojectconfigurations. DEVELOPMENT OF TEMPERATURE CRITERIA FOR FISH lJ first reviewed available information on the response of the five salmon To assess the effects of with-project instream temperatures on salmon,we species to different thermal conditions.Ideally,information used in an L [J effects analysis should be specific to the water body in question and to its particular community of organisms.Little specific information exists on the [ effects of temperature changes on Susitna River fish stocks,necessitating the [....~ -~ 33RB-OIOa - 9 -L , -, use of information from other areas and latitudes.Professional judgement was used to ascertain the applicability of each piece of information to the -,Susitna Basin.Generally,information proximal to the Susitna River was ~ -" .." --' ~ -.J ~ "3 judged to be more pertinent than data from other areas of Alaska,which in turn was usually more useful than information from more southerly latitudes. Once the information was assembled,it was synthesized to produce thermal tolerance ranges.These criteria were the temperature ranges believed to be capable of supporting adult spawning migrations,spawning,incubation, rearing,and smolt migrations. ASSESSMENT OF TE}~ERATURE EFFECTS Graphic techniques were used to demonstrate the relationships between simulated natural or with-project t~mperature regim~s and the salmon thermal tolerance criteria.Illustrations were prepared showing the thermal tolerance "envelope"over a one-year time period for each salmon species.Overlays of --l xc:natural and with-project temperatures were superimposed on the -, J species-specific temperature tolerance graphics;separate illustrations were ~ ~ prepared for each of two representative mainstem river locations. procedure was followed for each of the meteorological simulations. This J ~ -, J .:;....iii ~ We assumed that only in cases where the simulated temperature regimes fall outside the temperature tolerance ranges is an obvious adverse impact established.However,in cases where with-project temperatures do not exceed tolerances but yet appear to be substantially different from natural,a further subjective analysis and prediction of effects was conducted. 33RB-OIOa -10 - [ RESULTS AND DISCUSSION r~, 1--:-__, EFFECT OF THE PROJECT ON MAINSTEM TE}~ERATURES Operation of either a single-or two-dam project would reduce mean summer L, river temperatures below the dam by as much as 2 C.The two-dam project would result in a greater change,primarily because the second dam would be located 53 km further downstream,reducing the length of river in which release waters would warm towards ambient air temperature. c Warmer winter release temperatures would delay the formation of an ice cover in the study reach 2 to 6 weeks with one dam and 4 to 7 weeks with both dams in place.The ice front would be located 16 to 47 km further downstream than under normal conditions (R&M Consultants,Inc.,et al.1985).A synopsis.[J of natural and with-project mean seasonal temperatures for four summers and five winters is shown in table 2. no One of the most notable effects of project operation on temperature would be the change in the timing of seasonal warming and cooling.River ~ temperatures would warm later in the summer than they do naturally and cool [J later in the fall than normal (figures 2 and 3).Figure 4 compares natural and two-dam project temperatures at RK 209 for 1981 and illustrates this delay [ T~ERATURE CRITERIA FOR SALMON in the normal temperature pattern. Thermal tolerance ranges were established during the course of this study for the five Pacific salmon species found in the Susitna drainage.These [ C r-' l_:J ranges were based on literature reports of fish distribution,laboratory studies,and field studies (table 3).Observed Susitna drainage temperature data were utilized in conjunction with the literature reports to establish [ c 33RB-010a -11 -L .." -, d ~ .-J ..jl :;;i Table 2.Simulated mean seasonal temperatures at RK 209 for four summer and five winter scenarios. ~ 33M-OI0a -12 - lJ NATURAL [ WATER-WEEKS I planed 01 mid-week) 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 '6 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 I I I " ' ,I ',I I I I I I I ,\I , ,,,,, I I I I , I " ' I I I,', I I " ' , I \ ' I I ',', ,I u [ c D I J I £11 \Iii FE8JANDEC h i OCT NOVSEP ,;, AUG I iH till JULJUNMAY I )(1'~J II ~MAR APR 140 .~ .L.I.-....l--130 230 WATANA 300-\i290 280 -/ 270 260 . DEVIL 250 '"CANYON---Z-l5 240 0-.... ~g ;;: a::.... .~ a:: o c o CdEJ o [ .il .~WATANA 2001 WATER.WEEKS (plotted aI mid-week) 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 2S 30 300J I 11111 I I I I I ,I I I I I'I I I I I I I I'I I I I ,,I,,,].,r,..I I .I WATANA-' 2 280 270 260 DEV'L~ CANYON 240 ij'J I r 111 2 I))/1 I 1/{V \{V I f\o-JU I N. \~lGOLD220.. CREEK 210 I f \..I)-I ...-.J )I .-!/I /\I f~II III \}I':'I CHULITNA MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR [ Figure 2.Isotherm plots of simulated instream temperature for natural and one-dam (Watana)conditions t May 1981 - April 1982. [) c -13 -[ NATURAL WATER.WEEKS (ploned 01 mid·week) APRMARFEBJANDECNOVOCTSEPAUGJULJUNMAY 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 2 4 6 B '0 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 I ""·"'1 I I,·,,·,·,I ~1i III I ((11 i 11 I 2 •G ..\~ :H A 2 •~ I G .\ - I 0 I -)G )-~~(2 i~~lu ( )-11 0 ,;,n G ii If lj G :-11 j r E\I i \Ii I 11 r WATANA CHULITN 0::... ~ 0:: DEVIL u>CANYO 0::... ~... ::E o GOLO~CREE ='ll ~ "' --J DEVIL CANYON 2002 =; WATER.WEEKS (plotted at mid-week) 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 2 4 6 8 I)12 14 16 IB 20 22 24 26 28 30 = ., 280 -' J ~ d --:j --1 270 260 DEVIL 250 ~CANYON~... ~~230 9 "0::... ~ 0:: MAY JUN JUL AUG I SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR ---., J -' Figure 3.Isotherm plots of simulated instream temperature for natural and two-dam (Devil Canyon)conditions,Hay 19.81.,.. April 1982. -14 - ~ OCTSEP -----', "",, '............, ',,- ", ---Natural -----Devil Canyon AUGJULYJUNEMAY /',/'/"I --I -,I 'r---J '/- //,I,/\I /\I ,/\/ /\/,/\// // /// 14 13 12 11 10 6 9-w 8a: ::::> to-7~a: .....w lJl c..6 ~ W to-5 4 3 2 1 0 Figure 4.Natural and two-dam with-project stream temperatures at RK 209. r:-J c=J CJJ c--:J .c=J LJ c=J o:::=J [iIT[][~:.~]c=J c=J ~,---,:----'_____~,~__J ~c---_J L~.~_J .[~_J. ..., Table 3.Observed temperature ranges for various life stages of Pacific Salmon from literature review and laborato~ investigations. [ [ Table 3.(Cont'd)Observed temperature ranges for various life stages of Pacific Salmon from literature review ani laboratory investigations. TEMPERATURE RANGE C CSPECIES OF LIFE LITERATURE SALMON STAGE SOURCE LOCATION .MIGRATION SPAWNING INCUBATION REARIi Coho Juvenile Cederholm &Scarlett 1982 Washington St.6 r1Bustard&Narver 1975 Vancouver Is.,BC 7 Bell 1973 General 7.0-16.5 H.8-l4';-6 McNeil &Bailey 1975 Southeast,AI<4.4-l5.73 4-21,7fJMcMahon1983General4-l6 6-U, 4 Wallis 1983 Anchor R,AI<2-l5,7-l4 Whitmore 1979 Caribou L,AI<n-l5.5 Seldovia L,AI<3.0-5.7 0ADF&G 1984 Susitna R,AI<4.2-l4.5 Egg/Alevin Bell 1980 General 4.4-B.3 n.3McMahon1983General4-l4,4-l0 3 UDong1981WashingtonSt.1.3-U.4,4-6.5 Pink Adult Bell 1980 General 7.2-15.6 7.2-U.8 fJBell1983USSR5 McNeil &Bailey 1975 Southeast,AI<7.0-B Sheridan 1962 Southeast,AI<7.2-l8.4 8McNeiletal.1964 Southeast,AI<W.O-B.O -1 ADF&G 1984 Susitna R,AI<7.8-15.5 8.0-H.0 Juvenile Bell 1980 General 5.6-l4.Q McNeil &Bailey 1975 Southeast,AI<4.4-15.:=J Wilson 1979 Kodiak Island,AI<5.0-7.0 Wickett 1958 British Columbia 4,0-5.0 0ADF&G 1984 Susitna R,AI<4.2-14.5 Egg/Alevin Bell 1980 General 4.4-B.3 C.Bailey &Evans 1971 Southeast,AI<4.5 Combs &Burrows 1957 Laboratory 0.5-5.5 McNeil et al.1964 Southeast,AI<1.0-8.0 Godin 1980 Laboratory 3.4-15.0 C Sockeye Adult Bell 1980 General 7.2-15.6 lO.6-U.2 Bell 1983 General 2.5 CMcNeil&Bailey 1975 Southeast,AI<7.0"B.0 Nelson 1983 Southeast,AI<8.3-14,3 ADF&G 1984 Susitna R,AI<5.8-15.5 4.9-10.5 [ - E 33RB-010a -17 -[ -, Table 3.(Cont'd)Observed temperature ranges for various life stages of Pacific Salmon from literature review an laboratory investigations. SPECIES OF SALMON LIFE STAGE LITERATURE SOURCE LOCATION·REARING -C1 -, J -, -J ~ ~ , ::] ~ ~ "" ... J -...i Sockeye Juvenile Egg/ Alevin Chinook Adult Juvenile Egg/ Alevin McCart 1967 Raleigh 1971 Bell 1980 McNeil &Bailey 1975 Fried &Laner 1981 Bucher 1981 Hartman et al.1967 Flagg 1983 ADF&G 1984 Bell 1980 Combs 1965 ADF&G 1983 Wangaard &Burger 1983 ADF&G1984 Bell 1980 Bell 1983 McNeil &Bailey 1975 Wallis 1983 ADF&G 1984 Raymond 1979 Bell 1980 McNeil &Bailey 1975 AEIDC 1982 Wallis 1983 ADF&G 1984 Bell 1980 Combs 1965 Alderdice &Velsen 1978 British Columbia Laboratory General Southeast,fJ{ Bristol Bay,fJ{ Biistol Bay,fJ{ Alaskawide Kasilof R,fJ{ Susitna R,fJ{ General Laboratory Susitna R,fJ{ Laboratory Susitna R,AK General General Southeast,fJ{ Anchor R,fJ{ Susitna R,fJ{ Columbia R,OR General Southeast,fJ{ Southcentral,fJ{ Anchor R,fJ{ Susitna R,fJ{ General Laboratory General n.2-14.6 4.4-15.7 7.3-14.6 4.4-15.7 ~ -i c ...J 1 Single temperature values are lower observed thresholds 2After eggs had developed to the 128-cell or early blastula stage at 5.5 0 C 30p .tunum range 4 p k'.5 ea m~grat~on range Mean temperature 33RB-010a -18 - [ tolerance criteria for each life phase (table 4).In cases where life phases [ overlap,that life phase most sensitive to temperature was chosen when preparing the tolerance criteria graphic overlays.The criteria,then, establish the narrowest temperature tolerance window for evaluation.Within these ranges Susitna salmon stocks were assumed to live and function free from the lethal effects of temperature. r' l_~ Embryo incubation rates rise with increasing intragravel water [ temperature.Accumulated temperature units,or degree-days to hatching and emergence,were obtained from literature reports (ADF&G 1981b,1983;Raymond r1 U 1981;Wangaard and Burger 1983)and used as criteria for incubation.Data from laboratory studies of salmon embryo development under different temperature regimes using Susitna chum salmon stocks (lvangaard and Burger.D 1983)were compared with other chum salmon embryo incubation time data.A regression analysis of these data illustrated a linear relationship between n mean incubation temperature and development rate (the inverse of the time to emergence)for chum salmon (figure 5).A nomograph was then prepared from ~ these data which could predict the date of emergence based upon the date of D cOtherspeciesspawnintributariesorsidesloughschangesarepredicted. chum salmon spawning and'the average temperature over the incubation period (figure 6).A nomograph was prepared only for chum salmon since this is the 0 principal species spawning in the mainstem where project-related temperature expected to be unaffected by the temperature change.[ EFFECTS OF ALTERED TEMPERATURES ON FISH [ Using the graphic techniques for illustrating relationships between the natural and with-project temperature regimes and the salmon life stage L u 33RB-010a -19 -L .., --, Table 4.Salmon temperature tolerance criteria for Susitna River drainage. TEMPERATURE RANGE (C) .ii -. , -' ., -' j =:ij -' ! .J , .,,; SPECIES Chum Sockeye Pink Chinook Coho LIFE PHASE Adult Migration Spawning 1 Incubation Rearing Smolt Migration Adult Nigration Spawning 1 Incubation Rearing Smolt Nigration Adult Higration Spawning 1 Incubation Smolt Migration Adult Nigration Spawning 1 Incubation Rearing Smolt Higration Adult Migration Spawning 1 Incubation Rearing Smolt Migration TOLERANCE 1.5-18.0 1.0-14.0 0-i2.0 1.5-16.0 3.0-13.0 2.5-16.0 4.0-14.0 0-14.0 2.0-16.0 4.0-18.0 5.0-18.0 7.0-18.0 0-13.0 4.0-13.0 2.0-16.0 5.0-14.0 0-16.0 2.0-16.0 4.0-16.0 2.0-18.0 2.0-17.0 0-14.0 2.0-18.0 2.0-16.0 PREFERRED 6.0-13.0 6.0-13.0 2.0-8.0 5.0-15.0 5.0-12.0 6.0-12.0 6.0-12.0 4.5-8.0 7.0-14.0 5.0-12.0 7.0-13.0 8.0-13.0 4.0-10.0 5.0-12.0 7.0-13.0 7.0-12.0 4.0-12.0 7.0-14.0 7.0-14.0 6.0-11.0 6.0-13.0 4.0-10.0 7.0-15.0 6.0-12.0 .J --, -' ....i -ii ... 1Embryo incubation or development rate increases as temperature rises • Accumulated temperature units or days to emergence was determined for each species for the incubation phase. ---'33RB-010a -20 - 0.020 ri----------------------------------.' 0.018 r =0.97 slope =0.57 T ADF&G (1981b) X ADF&G (1983) •Raymond (1981) o Wangaard and Burger (1983) 0.016 -en>-« 0-T""-I- Z 0.010ill ~a- 0N....JI-' ill>ill 0 0.002 121110987654321 0.000 I !I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I a MEAN INCUBATION TEMPERATURE (C) Figure 5,Relationship between mean water temperature and Alaskan chum salmon embryo develop- ment.,..to..,.emergence times. r-J L ..JJ r---1 c=J r-----.J L __J L_.::J CJ QI[]l-J_!J CJ c=J '--1 L_J L __J ·~_nJ L_J i _J l ."J L_.._, ..,. -" -" "' Spawnin9 Date I July 20 Augl Aug 10 T(C) 1.0 L5 "2.0 2.5 3.0 Emergence Date June 10 June I May20 MaylO Mayl April 20 d ""1 --.J ~ :::::;; , cJ ~ j ""1 "-. J -" ---" ---" Aug 20 Sept I Sept 10 Sept20 Octl Oct 10 .'........ 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 April 10 April I March 20 March 10 March I Feb 20 FabiO Febl Jan 20 Jan 10 Janl -:J ---" ......J Figure 6.Nomograph for predicting Susitna River chum salmon fry emergence from spawning date and mean water temperature during the embryo incubation period.Line illustrates predicted fry emergence date from a Septem- ber 1 spawning date and a mean incubation temperature of 2.0 C. -22 - rl n temperature tolerance criteria,we evaluated over 100 one-and two-dam development scenarios,each under different combinations of representative river sites (RK209 and 242)in figures 7-16.Two steps were meteorologic/hydrologic conditions.These results are summarized for two [; [First,an examination oftakenintheinterpretationofthesefigures. departures of with-project temperatures from the "tolerance window"was made. In most cases,each with-project temperature simulation fell within the lJ temperature tolerance criteria for all life phases.For example,while Ii with-project temperatures are different from natural,they are within the LJ obvious adverse impacts would result from predicted with-project temperatures tolerance range for chum salmon (figure 7).Therefore,we assumed that no o for this species at this location under these meteorological and hydrological [ conditions. In general,this first step in the assessment demonstrated that the t! Susitna Hydroelectric Project would have few adverse effects from temperature on the five salmon species.One potential impact was under the two-dam QE [jpotentialthermalblockwouldprecludeaccesstomorehabitat,would occur scenario where adult pink and chinook salmon inmigration may be delayed 0 upstream of RK 209 in late June to mid-July as temperatures fall below the lower tolerance level for this life phase (figures 15 and 16).The effects on [J pink salmon inmigration timing are greater than those on chinook because the. nearer the time of peak pink salmon inmigration,and the period of exposure to temperatures below tolerance levels would be of longer duration.While adult chinook or pink salmon migration into this river reach could be delayed,we [J c believe inmigration would ultimately occur 5 to 15 days later as temperatures rise.This may result in a shorter period between the time pink salmon occupy spawning grounds and the occurrence of actual spawning. L c 33RB-010a -23 -[ -" CHUM SALMON RIVER KILOMETER 242 Adulllnmicr~lion Sp~lI'ning Ineub~lion Juvenile Heorinc OulmiJ:falion •• •• •• ••n~nce..- Pe~k -+---to APRJANFEBMAR Tolerance Zone NOV DECJULAUGSEPOCT ---Natural ----Watana 2001 MAY JUN 18 - 17 - 16 15 14 - 13 12 11 - 10 -...i \,:::""/~~~\..'\\9 I _"~' 8-J \ 7 -r \ ',,6 -I "",~,",5-I \./\I /"'--','-,I4 -,__'-.J \I 'J ...........'·~..I:"'-_'<:::::"""~I 3 2 -Il--'==t~::....__~==:,-""" o .. -1 -1_.........,...T1TT"1-2 ~ ~ ~ (I) Co E ~ §: j -' ~ -"l -' , :J H~nce..- rc~k -t-+- " RIVER KILOMETER 206 Tolerance Zone • CHUM SALMON • •• •• ---Natural ~--Watana 2001 -•I•• MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR Natural and·one-dam (Uatana)with-project water temperature regimes in relation to thermal tolerance criteria for chum salmon at two locations on the Susitna River. -24 - 18 - 17 .. 16 .. 15 .. 14 - 13 12 - 11 - 10 -\J ~ 9 .."I 'L,j ~'I \..", I \8 ..I \ 7 -/'''\ 6 ../'"/,5 ..,'/\ 4 -'~, '/'\"\/\I3 -,_,V ,"~,,\/~ 2 -, 1 - o 1~=::::~.,..,~~:;;r~;-T'O~;~~~:;~~~;~~::-1 - -2 §: lI? ~ ~ (I) Co E (I) I- Adult Inmicr~lion Sp:awning Incllb~lioll Juvenile He~rillC Oull1liJ::r.:Ilion Figure 7. , -' -, d -, ~, ~ d co::; -' -, -' J 1 .. [ [' [ o D l~ c [ [ ,"l~ COHO SALMON RIVER KILOMETER 242 Adufllnmigralion -I I •Range Spawning -I I •--Incubalion r- Juvenile nearing Peak OUlmigralion •I I -.-+-t- 18 - 17 ----Natural 16 -I I I ----Watana 2001 15 - 14 - 13 - 12 -I (\Tolerance Zone 11 - ~10 - ~9:::l ..........J \y \."\-8 -~\ Q)7 - \a.\E 6 - \ Q)\I-5 ,,, 4 ,, 3 - \,,,....."2 1 - 0 -1- -2 ... MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR L c [ c c [ [ 6 r ..k -+-t- nange-- APR Tolerance Zone RIVER KILOMETER 206 JAN fEB MARNOVDEC • ---Natural ----Watana 2001 COHO SAL1I.fON [\ \.,"\ \ \ \ \ '-",, \ \ t--- • I I- 'I - JUL AUG SEP OCT • MAY JUN 18 17 16 .. 15 .. 14 .. 13 - 12 - 11 - 10 - 9 - 8 - 7 6 5 - 4 - 3_p IS>fV \.".v,/I I -2 I I .~LJ I iii iii I i I I i j I i j iii iii iii iIi iii j iii i I Iii IiiiiiiiiiiI ~ ~.a ~ Q)a. E ~ Adull Inmigration Spawning Incubation Juvenile nearing I I I j OUlmi~r2(ion Figure 8.Natural and one-dam (Watana)with-project water temperature regimes in relation to thermal tolerance criteria for coho salmon at two locations on the Susitna River. ~25 - [; Ptak -+--+- Range--RIVER KILOMETER 242 • SOCKEYE SALMON ---Natural ----Watana 2001 • I I • • I I. • 18 17 16 15 14 - 13 - Adult Inmigralion Spawning ~~~I Juvenile nearing I I I OUlmigralion ~.'lIl ~, -, " Tolerance·Zone -"\/.... '\ \."\ \ \ \. '\, I --------------\"Ii '\ r \., 12 11 10 9 8 - 7 - 6 - 5 4- 3 _,,\,I!:/\6,v-·\f'J~I -1 -iii iii iii i •IIiIIiijiiiiIiiIiI I-2 'i Iii I Iii ill I I Iii I I I I §: e :::J-; Q; a. E Q) t- ~ ~ MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR :3 nange-- Ptak -+-+- RIVER KILOMETER 206 • SOCKEYE SALMON I I • • I I.• t• -. Adultlnmigralion Sp~wniJ1g Incubation I Juvenile Hearing I I I Outmigralion ::l .J 1 Tolerance Zone 'I ---Natural ----Watana 2001 [\'..,,\ \ \ \ '-","'------\'I'\,-\ 18 17 - 16 - 15 - 14 - 13 - 12 - 1 1 - 10 - 9 - 8 - 7 - 6 - 5 - 4 - 3 - ~:1 ~'J\/\_I \<'"<')Io - -1 -i I I Iii iii i i'Iii i i j I j i I I j j I I i j I j I i I-2 -,iii j iii j j iiI j iii j I e.a ~ Q)a. E ~ §: ~ .-J ~ .-J ! :'l..... .... MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR -' Figure 9.Natural and one-dam (Watana)with-project water temperature regimes in relation to thermal tolerance criteria for sockeye salmon at two locations on the Susitna River._?k _ r-l .J [ r1 l.~ Range.- Peak -+--t- RIVER KILOMETER 242 • CHINOOK SALMON • I I • • I I • • Adull Inmigralio', Spawning Incnbation I Juvenile Ilearing I I I Onlmi/:ralion o B fl U ·0 APR A Tolerance Zone JAN FEB MAR '....,"-'-../' NOV DEC \I ....,...\v/~ \ \,0"\ \,,,,, "... \ \ "-.....A JUL AUG SEP OCT ---Natural ---Watana 2001 MAY JUN 3 2 - 1 -oj-1 -"~2 :"":I~i~i~i'i~i~i~i"Tiii-.~i~i~iii~i3;~~;I~~:'T::~~~-rnn"TTnn"TT"~~===I iii iii iii iIi i ;iIi i i j j j i j i i j iIi iii 18 17 I ...16 -i 15 14 13 12 - 11 10 9 - 8 - 7 - 6 5 - £ ~.a ~ (I) Co E (I) I- D c C' L nU c c o RRange.- Peak -+--t- Tolerance Zone RIVER KILOMETER 206 JAN FEB MAR APRNOVDEC • CHINOOK SALMON 'I \\.", \ \ \ ""'\ \ JUL AUG SEP OCT • I I •• I I • ---Natural ----Watana 2001 • MAY JUN 18 17 -I ... 16 -- 15 - 14 - 13 - 12 - 11 - 10 - 9 - 8 7- L ~'~/V\_'~'::,I~=~n-rrn~""TTTT~iiij .,0'r'~".n ,:,,::,,~,i ii 1 -Ii iii-lili-2 iii iii I I I £ !!? :::J iii Qi Co E (I) I- Adult Inmigration S(Jawning Incubation I ,Juvenile Ile,ring I I I OUlmi~r:lljon Figure 10.Natural and one-dam (Watana)with-project water temperature regimes in relation to thermal tolerance criteria for chinook salmon at two locations on the Susitna River. _~7 [ ~ ...,Adult Inmigralion SJlawning Illcubalion Juvenile Rearing Ou!mi~ralion I ~ • • •• Ie PINK SALMON RIVER KILOMETER 242 Range--Peak ~ Tolerance Zone ---Natural ----Watana 2001 18 - 17 I 16 _==~==~~==~=__15 ~~J 12 - 11 10 '\/'\'"9 -I .........1 ~'v \ I \8 -~\ r \7 - /" 6 -,""~,,, 5-/\/'\I /"-'~-'\',_I4-__'J"V \/" 3 --=-_~ 2 " ,I 1 """'" O iii I i j I I ,iii iii jiii-1 iii Iii iI'j iii-2 f iii i j I §: ~ Z ~ Q) Co E ~ :..:s -' ~ ~" ---..J -,MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR -" Range-- Peak -+-t- Tolerance ZOlle ---Natural ----Watana 2001 • I I • 18 17 I 16 - 15 - 14 13 J 12 - 11 - 10 -'I::"/\\~:\\..-; 9-'-.I \;4'\ \ 8 -\ 7 -\. 6 -", ,5 -\ \ 4 -"_/'V',3-,2 i i \ 1-.",,, , i I Iii i I I I 0-11\11111\ til l Iii-1 [I I [ I I [i [I-2 ,IiI 1 i l ( §: l!! ::l ~ Q) Co E Q) I- PINK SALMON RIVER KILOMETER 206 "i ·1 Adull Inmigral~on I •I::I Sp.wnmg •J Ie Incllbalion Juvenile Rearing OUhnigralion -., -' 4 .J .J ~ , ..] ;:i3i J ..l -, " -:MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR =i ~ Figure 11.Natural and one-dam (Watana)with-project water temperature regimes in relation to thermal tolerance criteria for pink salmon at two locations on the Susitna River. -28 - [l Adullinmic,alion Sp.awninc Incubalion Juvenile nearing Outmi~r:lfion •• •• •• CHUM SALMON •• RIVER KILOMETER 242 nange----. Peak -+--t- [ [:: __J c c o APRJANFEBMAR Tolerance Zone NOV DEC ~........(--""", ",,, \ \ \ \ \\r---------LJ ------~/ JUL AUG SEP OCT ---Natural '----Devil Canyon 2002 MAY JUN A, I "/ \I / \I /\/ ....J V / / //....'------I' 18 17 - 16 - 15 - 14 - 13 12 - 11 10 - 9 - 8 - 7 - 6 - 5 - 4 - 3 - 2 =!:1 ,I,, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,:,:, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,,:,:,I §: ~.a ~ Q) Co E f:!. • CHUM SALMON Adullinmigralion Spawning Incubalion Juvenile !learing OUCmigralion •• .-. • I I • •• RIVER KILOMETER 206 nange----. Peak -+--t- D o ---Natural ---Devil Canyon 2002 o Tolerance Zone -" '\ \, ", \ \ "\ \ \ \......"", \-/.....---.....-./V" c c. 6 [ MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR [ Figure 12.Natural and two-dam (Devil Canyon)with-project water temperature regimes in relation to thermal tolerance criteria for chum salmon at two locations on the Susitna River.-29 - L -, nanee.- Peak -+--t- RIVER KILOMETER 242 • •• COHO SALMON I --1• • Adull Inmieralion Spawnine Incubalion 1 Juvenile Ilearine I I I OUll1Iignlion Tolerance Zone ----Natural ----Devil Canyon 2002 A I '........ / \I/ \I /\/ j 'v/" / I.11 18 17 - 16 -IJ15- 14 - 13 - 12 - 11 - 10- 9 - 8 - 7 - 6 - 5 4 - ~~:\r -----1 I =!=:,,,,,,," " ,,,,,,,,,:::,,::",,,,,.,,.,,,,:,:: Q: f!! :::J-e Q) Co E {!!. -" -.J ='!! -, .,MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR -' Peak -+--t- nanee--RIVER KILOMETER 206 • • COHO SALMON I ·1 I· f • • Adull Inmieralion Spawning Incubalion I I Juvenile Ilearine I I OUlmigralion .~:-. -. -' --, Tolerance Zone ---Natural ----Devil Canyon 2002 --..., \ \ ................\ \ ", \ \ /\ /\.., I "/ \I/\ /V I II I3_I' 18 17 16 - 15 - 14 - 13 - 12 - 1 1 - 10 - 9 - 8 7 - 6 - 5 - 4 - Ji .~:r/"-J::"/::~I , I , { , , i j i I I I-I I I I i I J I I I I i I I I I i I j.I J J i §: ~ .;!e Q) Co E Q) I- -" , ~ d ~ -> ;.;;;J d MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR ;;i d Figure 13.Natural and two-dam (Devil Canyon)with-project water temperature regimes in relation to thermal tolerance criteria for coho salmon at two locations on the Susitna River.-30 - lJ SOCKEYE SALMON RIVER KILOMETER 242 [ [JR,nge----.. Pe,k -t-t-• • I I • • I I. • ALlulllnmigralion Sp,wning Incub,lion I I Juvenile flo,ring I I Olllmi~rolion c c c [' r--1L__J APR Tolerance Zone JAN FEB MAR r----------------..,./ NOV DEC ---Natural ----Devil Canyon 2002 "....,-,,",'.........,, ",, \ \ \ \ \ \ JUL AUG SEP OCT A, I "/ \I I \ / /\I j V./ / MAY JUN 18 - 17 - 16 - 15 - 14 13 - 12 - 1 1 - 10 9 - 8 7 - 6 - 5 - 4 - 3 -1/ 2 1 - =!t """"",",","~,~", ::It ,,ii',, , , , I I ,'I I i l!! :J ~ Q) Co E Q)r- §: u D Peak -t-T- R,nge..- RIVER KILOMETER 206 • •J-- SOCKEYE SALMON I•• • ALlulllnmigralion Sp,wning Incub,lion I - Juvenile flc,ring I I I OUlmigralion ---Natural ---Devil Canyon 2002,u Tolerance Zone 6 o L [ [J APRJANFEBMAR \_.....~,/V,;....._..._-...J NOV DEC -,""" \ \""'\ \ ", \ \ \ JUL AUG SEP OCTMAYJUN E :J (;j Qi Co E Q)r- §: Figure 14.Natural and two-dam (Devil Canyon)with-project water temperature regimes in relation to thermal tolerance criteria for sockeye salmon at two locations on the Susitna River.-31 - L R.nge ~ Pe.k --t--t- RIVER KILOMETER 242 • CHINOOK SALMON •H • I I • • • Adulllnmi~ralion Sp.wning Incub:ition I Juvenile /le,ring I I I OUlllliJ:ralion Tolerance Zone r----------------,,,,,- --_.Natural ----Devil Canyon 2002 ----",I 18 - 17 - 10- 15 - 14 _. 13 12 - 11 - 10 9 8 7 - 6 5 - 4 - 3 -I / 2 - 1 - =r =1,I , , I I I , , , i ,iii iii iii iii :,,Ii,I Iii,I , i ,i ,I , ,:,, : I I ~.a ~ Q)a. E I!!- §: ~ '"""'1 ....J ,....., MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR -" R.nge.- Pe.k --t--t- ,/ \...../ Tolerance Zone . RIVER KILOMETER 206 \.../.....~"-/ \t/"....----./ • --.. \'.... ....,\ \ \. "-\ \ \ CHINOOK SALMON --+1 • • I I • ---Natural ---Devil Canyon 2002 ----"i I • 18 17 - 16 - 15 - 14 13 - 12 1 1 10 - 9 - ~=r;fA\.., 6 - / \/\ 5 - /\I/V4_/,r----"--- 3 I i I 2 1 - o -I -1 -'> -2 _I r I I iIe"C• , j -I • , i , ,I', , ,i ,iii,iii Iii I I j i i j iii iii I Iii iii It e ::;] iii Q;a. E I!!- §: Adulllnmigralion Sp.wning II1C'uualion I Juvenile /learing I I I OUlllli~ralion ~ ~ -~ ~ ;::j ..J ;,;j ~ ~ ,....., Figure 15.Natural and two-dam (Devil Canyon)with-project water temperature regimes in relation to thermal tolerance criteria for chinook salmon at two locations on the Susitna River.-32 - ~ ='" MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR [ n [ [ c [ [ r~ L Range-- I'rak -t-+- APR Tolerance Zone RIVER KILOMETER 242 JAN FEB MARNOVDEC rINK SALMON • Ie ................" ,<-_/'"...........,.... ", \ \ \ \/\r---------------~ \.../ • JUL AUG SEP OCT • • --.-Natural ----Devil Canyon 2002 e-+--t MAY JUN 18 - 17 - 16 - 15 14 - 13 12 11 - ~10 ~9 -::::l ~8 - Q) 7 - a. E 6 -Q) l-S - 4 J / 3 / 2 - 1 - o - -1 - -2 - Adult IlImiCfaliun Spawlling Incubalion Juvrnilr IIrafill~ Outmigra'ion Adult Inmicralion Spawning Incubalion Juvrnile lIearing OUlmi~falion e-+--t • • •• Ie PINK SALMON RIVER KILOMETER 206 Hange-- Prak -t-+- D o c Figure 16.Natural and two-dam (Devil Canyon)with-project water temperature regimes in relation to thermal tolerance criteria for pink salmon at two locations on the Susitna River.-33 -L c L l l [J APR Tolerance Zone JAN FEB MARNOVDEC --.... '\........ ....\ \ \"'\ \ \ \.-'...........'.....~--.....Jyr JUL AUG SEP OCTMAYJUN ~ ::::l <U Q;a. E ~ ~ .-" -." ~ ~ d -, --" Another situation was found .where temperatures upstream of RK 209 in July also fall outside pink and chinook salmon spawning tolerance zones (figures 15 and 16).Since this only ·occurs for about one week,we believe that this would temporarily delay this species'spawning migration but would pose no long--term impediment to the spawning act.Neither pink nor chinook salmon are presently known to use this habitat for spawning,and thus this is not a present concern.Mitigation studies are currently focusing on the potential increased suitability of mainstem habitats for chinook spawning after the proj ect is operating due to improved hydraulic,turbidity,and winter ice conditions. The second step in our analysis was a more in-depth examination of effects of temperature change on juvenile fish growth and on embryonic development.Even though the With-project temperature scenarios are largely within the established thermal tolerance ranges for -salmon (figures 7-16), some reduction in juvenile salmon growth could occur due to cooler summer believe effects on rearing chinook salmon could be the most severe as juveniles of this species are the most numerous in habitats directly under mainstem temperature influence.In spring through fall,juvenile chinook move from overwintering clearwater tributaries and side sloughs into turbid water side channels and mainstem habitats (Schmidt et al.1984),presumably to forage on drift and benthic invertebrates and to utilize cover provided by the turbid conditions in these areas. We made estimates of juvenile chinook salmon g-rowth under natural and with-proj ect temperature regimes using a growth table presented in Brett (1974).,Our growth assessment indicates that,depending on climate and the temperature of reservoir-released waters,growth (measured by weight gain)of ..J ~ d ~ d -, a ~ ~ temperatures under with-project scenarios.Although unquantifiable,we "" 33RB-OI0a -34 - n l_J juveniles rearing in affected mainstem areas (above RK 209)could be substantially reduced (figure 17).These estimates of growth reduction are [ based on the sum of increased growth during the warmer fall temperatures and decreased growth during cooler spring and summer temperature.They are also [ based in part on the assumption that affected juvenile fish would feed to satiation.Since we believe this may not occur in the wild,these estimates 1- 1 _ should be viewed as worst case scenarios.l' Embryonic development time also is affected by changes in stream temperature,and was used as an estimator of project effect instead of [ otolerancecriteria.With-project water temperatures are expected to be warmer during the salmon embryo incubation period of September through April. Simulated natural mainstem average water temperatures near RK 209 for the D September to April period range from 0.8 to 1.2 Cdepending on meteorological conditions.Watana-only operational average water temperatures would be about [J Our assessment of these elevated winter incubation temperatures was based 0.8 to 2.0 C warmer than natural (table 5). on the chum salmon nomograph previously described.Under natural conditions, 0.7 to 1.2 Cwarmer and Devil Canyon operational temperatures would be about o o [J In 1984onlychumsalmonhavebeenfoundtospawninmainstemhabitats. approximately 3,800 chum salmon used the mainstem for spawning;14,600 spawned in side sloughs (Barrett et al.1985)at a nearly constant 3 to 4 C where c groundwater upwelling maintained elevated temperatures throughout the winter (ADF&G 1983).In the mainstem spawning areas,upwelling groundwater also [J [ maintains warm temperatures in the intragravel environment (ADF&G 1983).[J However,to illustrate effects of natural winter temperature regimes (approximately 1 C)on chum salmon incubation if warm groundwater is absent, our nomograph (figure 6)shows chum fry emergence well into the summer from a L 33RB-010a -35 -t L.~.i ..L.L...,j Lee..,.J L..."J IL,,.i..J ~,....J L,J L"L.i iJ L".i.J j J 10 •, 9 1982 NOV 1971 1982 ---/' /'1971 ..,.,-.-..""".-.------ OCT 1982 ,...---.............,,'",,/ ,,// //,-,-,-,- """ SEP 1971 /",-- // // // // ---Natural -----Watana --Devil Canyon 7 8 6-C)-l- I 5 CJ w ~4w 0\ I 3 2 1 0 MAY JUNE JULY AUG Figure 17.Estimates of juvenile salmon growth in the Susitna River near RK 209 under natural and with-project water temperature regimes comparing 1971 (cold)and 1982 (average) meteorological conditions. Natural and with-project Susitna River temperature ranges (C)under four meteorological scenarios for the period -September through April. Natural Table 5. RK Range 1971 -1972 Meteorology (Cold,Wet) Watana 2001 Devil Canyon 2002 Mean Range Mean Range Mean Ll [J [ n 242 209 161 0-6.8 0-6.9 0-7.1 0.7- 0.8 0.8 0-8.4 0-8.3 0-8.5 1.7 1.5 1.3 0.7-8.4 0-8.4 0-8.5 2.3 1.6 1.4 ~ 1974 -1975 Meteorology (Average,Dry) Natural Watana 2001 Devil Canyon 2002 RK Range Mean Range Mean Range Mean 242 0-8.5 0.9 0-9.8 2.2 1.2-9.4 3.0 209 0-8.6 1.0 0-9.6 1.8 0-9.4 1.9 161 0-9.1 1.1 0-10.0 1.6 0-9.9 1.9 D U C D 1981 -1982 Meteorology (Average,Wet) Natural Watana 2001 Devil Canyon 2002 RK Range Mean Range Mean Range Mean 242 0-7.7 1.1 0.4-9.0 3.0 1.8-8.3 4.0 209 0-7.9 1.1 0-9.0 2.5 0.7-8.2 3.2 161 0-8.4 1.3 0-9.4 2.1 0-8.6 2.4 1982 - 1983 Meteorology (Average,Average) Natural Watana 2001 Devil Canyon 2002 RK Range Mean Range Mean Range Mean 242 '0-7.9 1.1 0-9.0 2.9 0.9-8.6 3.5 209 0-8.0 1.2 0-8.8 2.4 0-8.6 2.8 161 0-8.4 1.3 0-9.1 2.1 0-8.9 2.2 33RB-010a -37 - o f] D [J C [ W [ -," --, spawning date of September 1,the period of peak spawning in Susitna River habitats.Under natural conditions,chum fry emerge in early May (ADF&G .,......., -. "'1 d ::! d -. - ~ d ~ d ......, ..l , c.j -. "" ::J ..3 ~ 1983).This illustrates that temperature may be a factor limiting successful production of chum salmon in mainstem habitats. With either one or two dams in place,however,eggs deposited on September 1 at an average incubation temperature greater than 2.0 or 3.0 C should emerge in time to produce viable fry (table 5 and figure 6).Average mainstem temperatures under the Watana-only scenario are above 2.0 C in two of the four different meteorological scenarios and for three of the four Devil Canyon scenarios (table 5).Mainstem temperatures near RK 209 in all but the coldest years average above 2.0 C for the incubation period and any eggs deposited under these warmer temperatures should produce viable fry.It appears,therefore,that better mainstem incubating habitat could exist under with-project scenarios due to the warmer temperatures. =" 33RB-OI0a -38 - [1 u CONCLUS IONS. [ Our analysis of expected effects on salmon from altered water temperatures due to operation of the Susitna Hydroelectric Project is based on a comparison of available predictions from the SNTEMP model with fish thermal tolerance criteria.While the SNTEMP model served this analysis well,there are limitations in the available water temperature data and in the modeling system that affect the reliability of the absolute temperatures predicted. The temperature data to which the model was calibrated was available for only a few years and numerous discontinuities in these data exist.Additionally, from a reservoir temperature model for upstream boundary conditions which also [ l} [ I'L_.J o [ possibility of a variety of combined errors. has inherent error.Consequently,simulated temperatures include the c While the ability of SNTEMP to predict absolute temperatures is D uncertain,much greater reliance may be placed on the relative temperature differences resulting between different simulation scenarios.Thus,the D ability to assess the temperature changes resulting from operation of the project remains good.We conclude that our analytical procedure,albeit o largely nonquantitative,permitted a reasonable analysis of effects on salmon from temperature changes predicted to occur from operation of the Susitna Hydroelectric Project. The available fish thermal tolerance information,while of sufficient scope for use in·gauging effects on salmon generally,is biased to lower latitudes of North America,necessitating professional interpretation for use [J rlU L L 33RB-OIOa -39 -[ -., ., -., .. j ., j in Alaska.Also,salmon are poikilotherms,and thus their body functions are very influenced by environmental temperature.Yet salmon exhibit a degree of thermal plasticity,and are often able to maintain some degree of independence of environmental temperature through homeostatic mechanisms (Warren 1971).We believe the Susitna stocks are adapted to a temperature range of 0 to 18 C. Certainly,narrower tolerance ranges apply to each life phase,and ranges differ slightly among species.Due to the wide temperature range in which salmon can live and function,any project-induced change that remains within their tolerance range requires a subjective analysis • Based on the SNTEMP model results,salmon thermal tolerance criteria, Susitna stock life history information,and professional judgement,we conclude that no direct mortality is anticipated to occur from with-project temperatures.Although unquantifiable,indirect mortality to some species may occur. Foremost among these effects is our concern with rearing chinook salmon (in an 80 km mainstem reach downstream from the Devil Canyon dam).Regardless of operating scenario,we believe juvenile chinook salmon growth would be retarded;effects would be more acute under the two-dam configuration than with one.This may result in smaller than normal smolts and/or a delay in outmigration,both of which are known to result in reduced survival (Groot 1982,Wedemeyer et al.1982).The extent of this effect is unquantifiable without more specific information on Susitna salmon stock temperature versus growth relationships. With-project water temperatures (for the two-dam scenario only)could also delay adult pink and chinook salmon inmigration (and hence,spawning) above RK 209.This could offset the normal timing of embryonic incubation, emergence,and outmigration of the progeny of these species.Of lesser 33RB-Ol0a -40 - l" L [ [ r" roo' iL_ f"' L~ r~ I l [ [ 33RB-010a -41 - L L f [ [ l l l I -, -, -"'I ""1 ~ d -, ~ -, -' ., ::.j :;j -, =.i d =1 ;;:i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Financial support for this work was provided by the Alaska Power Authority through its subcontractor Harza-Ebasco Susitna Joint Venture. 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