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Susitna-Watana Hydroelectric Project Document
ARLIS Uniform Cover Page
Title:
2012 reconnaissance-level geomorphic and aquatic habitat assessment of
project effects on lower river channel
SuWa 98
Author(s) – Personal:
Author(s) – Corporate:
[Alaska Energy Authority]
AEA-identified category, if specified:
2012 Environmental Study Plans
AEA-identified series, if specified:
Series (ARLIS-assigned report number):
Susitna-Watana Hydroelectric Project document number
Existing numbers on document:
Published by:
[Anchorage, Alaska : Alaska Energy Authority, 2012]
Date published:
May 2, 2012
Published for: Date or date range of report:
Volume and/or Part numbers:
Final or Draft status, as indicated:
Document type:
Pagination:
10 p.
Related work(s):
Pages added/changed by ARLIS:
Notes:
All reports in the Susitna-Watana Hydroelectric Project Document series include an ARLIS-
produced cover page and an ARLIS-assigned number for uniformity and citability. All reports
are posted online at http://www.arlis.org/resources/susitna-watana/
Susitna-Watana Hydroelectric Project FERC #14241 Alaska Energy Authority
2012 Lower River Geomorphology Study – May 2, 2012 Page 1
2012 RECONNAISSANCE-LEVEL GEOMORPHIC AND AQUATIC HABITAT ASSESSMENT OF PROJECT
EFFECTS ON LOWER RIVER CHANNEL
INTRODUCTION
The Alaska Energy Authority (AEA) is preparing a License Application that will be submitted to
the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) for the Susitna-Watana Hydroelectric
Project (Project), using the Integrated Licensing Process (ILP). The Project is located on the
Susitna River, an approximately 300-mile-long river in the Southcentral region of Alaska. The
Project’s dam site will be located at river mile (RM) 184. The results of this study and of other
proposed studies will provide information needed to support FERC’s National Environmental
Policy Act (NEPA) analysis for the Project license.
Construction and operation of the Project as described in the Pre-Application Document (PAD;
AEA 2011) will affect the timing and magnitude of flow, sediment supply, and sediment transport
capacity, which have the potential to alter aquatic habitat and channel morphology in the Lower
Susitna River. Understanding existing aquatic habitat and geomorphic conditions, how those
conditions change over a range of stream flows, and how stable/unstable the conditions have
been over recent decades will provide a baseline that will be needed to predict potential aquatic
habitat and geomorphic changes that could occur due to the Project.
The types, magnitudes, and extents of Project impacts on morphology are influenced by water
and sediment inflow from tributaries downstream of the Project and the geology through which
the river flows. As major tributaries join the Susitna, the impact of the dam on hydrology and
sediment supply can be attenuated by the flow and sediment contributions from the tributaries.
Two major tributaries, the Talkeetna and Chulitna Rivers, approximately double the flow near
the upper end of the Lower River. These tributary influences result in the Lower River exhibiting
different geomorphic characteristics than the Middle River and may lead to different responses
to the Project than may occur in the Middle River.
STUDY OBJECTIVE
The objective of this study is to assess at a reconnaissance level the potential for the Project to
affect aquatic habitat and channel morphology in the Lower Susitna River. The specific
objectives are as follows:
Evaluate the relative magnitude of changes to the flow regime pre- and post-Project;
Assess potential changes to channel morphology and aquatic habitat pre- and post-
Project;
Evaluate the relative magnitude of changes to the sediment regime pre- and post-
Project, the potential impacts on sediment/substrate gradations, and the vertical and
lateral stability of the channel;
Delineate large-scale geomorphic river segments with relatively homogeneous
characteristics (e.g., channel width, lateral confinement by terraces, entrenchment ratio,
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2012 Lower River Geomorphology Study – May 2, 2012 Page 2
sinuosity, slope, bed material, single/multiple channel, hydrology) for the purposes of
stratifying the river into study segments;
Conduct a geomorphic assessment of historic channel change and its drivers as well as
determine whether changes have affected the frequency and distribution of meso-habitat
units; and
Provide information to assist AEA and licensing participants to develop the 2013-2014
study plans.
STUDY AREA
The study area includes the Lower Susitna River from the mouth of the river at Cook Inlet (RM~
0) upstream to and including the three rivers confluence (RM~98).
NEXUS BETWEEN PROJECT AND RESOURCE TO BE STUDIED AND HOW THE RESULTS WILL BE USED
Project operations will change the timing and magnitude of flow, sediment supply and sediment
transport capacity which have the potential to alter channel morphology and aquatic habitat in
the Lower River. Results of this study will provide the initial basis for assessing the potential for
changes to the Lower River reach morphology due to the Project. Additional studies will be
planned for 2013-2014 if the results of this study identify a potential for channel adjustments and
associated changes to important aquatic habitat in response to the Project.
Issues associated with geomorphic resources in the Lower River reach for which information
appears to be insufficient were identified in the PAD (AEA 2011), including:
G16: Potential effects of reduced sediment load and changes to sediment transport as a
result of Project operations within the Lower River.
F19: The degree to which Project operations affect flow regimes, sediment transport,
temperature, water quality that result in changes to seasonal availability and quality of
aquatic habitats, including primary and secondary productivity.
EXISTING INFORMATION
An analysis of the Lower River reach and how riverine habitat conditions change over a range of
stream flows was performed in the 1980s using aerial photographic analysis (R&M Consultants,
Inc. and Trihey and Associates 1985a). This study evaluated the response of riverine aquatic
habitat to flows in the Lower River reach between the Yentna River confluence (RM 28.5) and
Talkeetna River confluence (RM 98) (measured at Sunshine gage RM ~84) ranging from 13,900
cfs to 75,200 cfs. The study also included an evaluation of the morphologic stability of islands
and side channels by comparing aerial photography between 1951 and 1983.
In another study, 13 tributaries to the Lower River reach were evaluated for salmon spawning
access under existing and proposed stream flows for the original hydroelectric project in the
1980s (R&M Consultants, Inc. and Trihey and Associates 1985b). The study report contains
information regarding run timing, mainstem and tributary hydrology, and morphology. Based on
the results of this study it was concluded that passage for adult salmon was not restricted under
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2012 Lower River Geomorphology Study – May 2, 2012 Page 3
natural flow conditions nor was passage expected to become restricted under the 1980s
proposed Project operations.
The AEA Susitna Water Quality and Sediment Transport Data Gap Analysis Report (URS 2011)
states that “if additional information is collected, the existing information could provide a
reference for evaluating temporal and spatial changes within the various reaches of the Susitna
River.” The gap analysis emphasizes that it is important to determine if the conditions
represented by the data collected in the 1980s are still representative of current conditions, and
that at least a baseline comparison of current and 1980s morphological characteristics in each
of the identified subreaches is required. This comparison should include not only identification of
changes, but should consider if the relative proportion of the various meso-habitat types have
remained constant within a reach.
METHODS
Work conducted for the 2012 Reconnaissance-Level Geomorphic and Aquatic Habitat
Assessment of Project Effects on Lower River Channel study will quantify the magnitude of
change associated with stream flow, riverine habitat features, and sediment transport under the
existing pre-Project and proposed post-Project conditions. In addition, a geomorphic
assessment of channel change will be conducted. The following sections describe the specific
analyses that will be performed.
Stream Flow Assessment
Comparison of Pre- and Post-Project Stream Flow
Pre-Project and available post-Project (proposed) hydrologic data will be compared. This will
include a comparison of the monthly and annual flow duration curves (exceedance pots) and
plots/tables of flows by month (maximum, average, median, minimum) for the Susitna River at
the Sunshine and Susitna Station gaging stations. Additional hydrologic indicators may be used
to further illustrate and quantify the comparison between pre- and post-Project stream flows.
The pre-Project data analysis will include the extended record being prepared by the U. S.
Geological Survey (USGS).
Comparison of Pre- and Post-Project Flood Frequency and Flood Duration at the Sunshine and
the Susitna Station Gages
Using the extended record currently being prepared by the USGS, a flood-frequency and flood-
duration analysis for pre- and post-Project annual peak flows will be performed. The flood-
frequency analysis will be performed using standard hydrologic practices and guidelines as
recommended by USGS (1982).
Riverine Habitat-Flow Relationship Assessment
River Stage
A tabular and graphical comparison of the change in water surface elevations associated with
the results of the pre- and post-Project stream flow assessment (above) will be developed using
the stage-discharge relationships (rating curves) for the Sunshine and Susitna Station gaging
stations. This comparison will include monthly and annual stage duration curves (exceedance
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2012 Lower River Geomorphology Study – May 2, 2012 Page 4
plots) and plots/tables of stage by month (maximum, average, median, minimum). Additional
parameters to describe and compare the pre- and post-Project water surface elevations may be
performed. A graphical plot of a representative cross section at each gaging station will be
developed with a summary of the changes in stage (i.e., water surface elevation) for the two
flow regimes. If the historic gage shift information is available, a specific gage analysis will be
conducted to determine the relative stability of the channel section at the two gaging stations. If
possible, the location of the active channel and the floodplain will also be identified on the cross
section.
The availability of USGS winter gage data with respect to discharge and ice elevation/thickness
will be investigated. Coordination with the WR-S2: Documentation of Susitna River Ice Breakup
and Formation Study will occur to obtain information on ice elevation/thickness, as appropriate.
An approximate analysis of discharge effects on ice elevation and cross-sectional flow
characteristics (depth and velocity) at the USGS gage locations will be conducted, if feasible.
This task will be coordinated with the Ice Processes Study.
Synthesis of the 1980s Aquatic Habitat Information
A synthesis/summary of the 1980s Response of Aquatic Habitat Surface Area to Mainstem
Discharge Relationships in the Yentna to Talkeetna Reach of the Susitna River (R&M
Consultants, Inc. and Trihey & Associates 1985a) will be provided. A synthesis/summary of the
Assessment of Access by Spawning Salmon into Tributaries of the Lower Susitna River (R&M
Consultants, Inc. and Trihey & Associates 1985b) will also be provided. Data will be
summarized with respect to the anticipated pre- and post-Project flow changes, where
applicable (see Stream Flow Assessment section above).
Site Selection and Stability Assessment
Up to eight sites in the Lower River will be selected from the Yentna to Talkeetna reach map
book (R&M Consultants, Inc. and Trihey and Associates 1985a) at the ~36,600 cfs flow at
Sunshine Gage to study in 2012. These sites will be selected in coordination with the Instream
Flow Study, the Instream Flow Riparian Study, the Ice Processes Study and the stakeholders.
A side-by-side comparison of the sites using the 1983 36,600 cfs aerials and the most
appropriate current aerials or satellite imagery will be performed to qualitatively assess site
stability. Sites which have been substantially reworked by the Susitna River since the 1980s will
not be selected for comparison of riverine habitat in the 1980s versus the present. Only sites
that have been relatively stable during the period will be selected.
Aerial Photography Analysis, Riverine Habitat Study Sites (RM 28 to RM 98)
Using GIS and the September 6, 1983 aerials for the 36,600 cfs flow, mainstem and side
channel riverine habitat will be digitized from the 1985 map book (R&M Consultants, Inc. and
Trihey and Associates 1985a) for the selected sites. Each area associated with a habitat type
will be a polygon (without slivers). To provide a comparison with current conditions, either
recent satellite imagery at a flow similar to 36,600 cfs or aerials obtained in 2012 (if appropriate
satellite imagery is not available) will be used to delineate the current wetted areas within the
riverine and side-channel habitats for the selected sites.
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2012 Lower River Geomorphology Study – May 2, 2012 Page 5
The difference in wetted surface area of the main channel and side-channel riverine habitats (as
defined in R&M Consultants, Inc. and Trihey & Associates 1985a1) will be compared between
the 1983 and current conditions. The areas of the riverine habitat types, along with the
Geomorphic Assessment of Channel Change subtask (see below) will be compared and
contrasted quantitatively and a qualitative assessment will be made of the similarity of the 1980s
sites compared to the 2012 sites. The assessment of site stability will help determine the
applicability of Lower River riverine habitat information developed in the 1980s to supplement
information being developed in the current Project studies.
Optional: Additional Aerial Photography Analysis, Riverine Habitat Study Sites (RM 28 to RM
98)
Based on the results of the comparison of riverine habitat areas at the selected study sites for
the Lower River and results of the Geomorphic Assessment of Channel Change subtask (see
below), a determination of whether to perform a similar effort and comparison for up to two
additional discharges will be made (discharges corresponding to the analysis of wetted habitat
areas in the Lower River include 75,200 cfs, 59,100 cfs, 36,600 cfs, 21,100 cfs and 13,900 cfs).
This decision will be made in coordination with the Instream Flow Study, Instream Flow Riparian
Study, Ice Processes Study, Fish Study and stakeholders. If the decision is made to analyze
riverine habitat at two additional discharges, the flows will be selected and the associated
habitat areas digitized from the 1985 map book. Satellite imagery at similar discharges or new
aerial photographs will be obtained (if appropriate satellite imagery is not available). The
riverine habitat types will be delineated and digitized on these images to represent the current
condition. The difference in wetted surface area of the main channel and side channel riverine
habitats will be compared between the 1983 and current conditions for the two additional
discharges.
Sediment Transport Assessment
Sediment Load Comparison
The sediment transport measurements the USGS has collected will be used to develop bedload
and suspended load rating curves to facilitate translation of the periodic instantaneous
measurements into yields over longer durations (e.g., monthly, seasonal, and annual). Since
gradations of transported material will be available, the data will allow for differentiation of
transport by size fraction. Previous studies have documented the potential for bias in
suspended load rating curves due to scatter in the relationship between sediment concentration
or load and flow (Walling 1977a). Specifically, the bias can result from the construction of linear
least-squares regression relationships of logarithmic transformed concentrations or loads and
flows (Walling 1977b, Thomas 1985, Ferguson 1986). Various procedures are available to
address the bias, including accounting for seasonal differences in sediment transport and
accounting for hysteresis related to rising and falling limbs of flood hydrographs (Guy 1964,
Walling 1974). Koch and Smillie (1986) and Cohn and Gilroy (1991) describe methods of
handling the bias correction depending on the expected distribution of errors. The USGS Office
1 The geomorphic types are defined in: Response of Aquatic Habitat Surface Areas to Mainstem
Discharge in the Yentna to Talkeetna-Reach of the Susitna River, Alaska, 1985, prepared by R&M
Consultants, Inc. and Trihey & Associates (document No. 2774) for the Alaska Power Authority.
Susitna-Watana Hydroelectric Project FERC #14241 Alaska Energy Authority
2012 Lower River Geomorphology Study – May 2, 2012 Page 6
of Surface Water (1992) endorsed the recommendations in Cohn and Gilroy (1991) to use the
Minimum Variance Unbiased Estimator (MVUE) bias correction for normally distributed errors,
or the Smearing Estimator (Duan 1983) when a non-normal error distribution is identified. Once
the sediment measurements are available for review, the potential for bias in the sediment
rating curves will be considered and addressed as appropriate.
The total sediment load delivered to the Lower River for pre- and post-Project conditions will be
evaluated using the sediment rating curves developed from the historical data (and, if available
in time, combined with any new sediment transport data being collected by the USGS for the
Determine Bedload and Suspended Sediment Load by Size Fraction at Tsusena Creek, Gold
Creek, and Sunshine Gage Stations study for the Sunshine and Susitna Station gaging
stations). The total sediment load at the Sunshine and Susitna Station gaging stations will be
compared for an average, wet, and dry year for pre-Project and adjusted post-Project using
adjusted post-Project rating curves. The calculations will be based on the assumption that the
post-Project sediment load at both gaging stations will be adjusted by reducing 100 percent of
the total bedload and 90 percent of the total suspended load obtained from USGS
measurements and the rating curve for the above Tsusena Creek gage if data are available,
and if not, from the historical Gold Creek gaging station.
Integrate Sediment Transport and Flow Results into Analytical Framework
Based upon the above analyses, an assessment of anticipated Project effects on the Lower
River channel type and morphology will be developed. Using the data developed for the pre-
and post-Project flood frequency, flood duration, and sediment load analyses, the geomorphic
response of the Susitna River in an analytic framework along the longitudinal profile of the river
system from the three rivers confluence through Lower River reach will be predicted. The
analytical framework developed by Grant et al. (2003) that relies on the dimensionless variables
of (1) the ratio of sediment supply below the dam to that above the dam, and (2) the fractional
change in frequency of sediment transporting flows will be used to predict the nature and
magnitude of the Lower River geomorphic response. Other analytical approaches may be
considered to demonstrate potential for geomorphic adjustments in the river reaches due to the
Project.
Geomorphic Assessment of Channel Change and Geomorphic Reach Delineation
Compare Historic and Present-Day Channel Planform Pattern
The 36,600 cfs September 6, 1983 set of Lower River aerial photographs and current satellite
images or aerial photographs will be obtained to compare historical and present-day channel
planform and pattern. Planform shifts of the main channel and side channels will be identified
between the 1983 and current aerial photography. The three rivers confluence area is also a
part of the analysis (extended to RM 99). Geomorphic features that are visible between the
1983 and current images, including the presence and extent of side channels, mid-channel
bars, vegetated bar areas, and changes at tributary deltas will be mapped and characterized.
Delineate Geomorphically Similar (Homogeneous) River Segments
The Lower River (RM 0 to RM 98) will be delineated into large-scale geomorphic river segments
(a few to many miles) with relatively homogeneous characteristics, including channel width,
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2012 Lower River Geomorphology Study – May 2, 2012 Page 7
entrenchment, ratio, sinuosity, slope, geology/bed material, single/multiple channel, braiding
index and hydrology (inflow from major tributaries) for the purposes of stratifying the river into
relatively homogeneous study segments.
The first step in geomorphic reach delineation effort will be the identification of the system to
classify and delineate the reaches. Numerous river classifications exist (Leopold and Wolman
1957; Schumm 1963, 1968; Mollard 1973; Kellerhals et al. 1976; Brice 1981; Mosley 1987;
Rosgen 1994, 1996; Thorne 1997; Montgomery and Buffington 1997; Vandenberghe 2001), but
no single classification has been developed that meets the needs of all investigators. Several
factors have prevented the achievement of an ideal geomorphic stream classification, and
foremost among these has been the variability and complexity of rivers and streams (Mosley
1987; Juracek and Fitzpatrick 2003). Problems associated with the use of existing morphology
as a basis for extrapolation (Schumm 1991) further complicates the ability to develop a robust
classification (Juracek and Fitzpatrick 2003). For purposes of classifying the Susitna River,
available classification systems will be reviewed and it is anticipated that a specific system will
be developed that borrows elements from several classifications system. The classification
scheme will consider both form and process. Development of this system will be coordinated
with the Instream Flow Study, Instream Flow Riparian Study, Ice Processes Study and Fish
Study so it is consistent with their needs. These studies may require further stratification or
lumping of the delineated reaches to identify specific conditions of importance to their effort, in
which case these studies will further divide the river into subreaches or lump reaches.
However, the overall reach delineations developed in the Geomorphology Study will be used
consistently across all studies requiring geomorphic reach delineations.
Since there are several studies that will require a reach delineation for planning 2012 field
activities, an initial delineation based primarily on readily available information (most recent high
quality aerials, bed profile from the 1980s, geomorphic descriptions from the 1980s) will be
developed in April 2012. As additional information is developed—such as current aerials and
transects—the delineation will be refined and the various morphometric parameters will be
determined. Coordination with the WR-S1: River Flow Routing Model Transect Data Collection
study will occur in order to obtain cross-section channel/floodplain data. Coordination with the
Instream Flow Study, Instream Flow Riparian Study, Geomorphic Modeling Study and Ice
Processes Study will occur to ensure that the river stratification is conducted at a scale
appropriate for those studies.
A reconnaissance-level site visit of the Lower River will be conducted that will be coordinated
with other studies to take advantage of scheduled boat and helicopter trips as well as
opportunities to coordinate with other studies. The purpose of this site visit will be to provide
key Geomorphology Study team members an overview of the river system.
STUDY PRODUCTS
Study products to be delivered in 2012 will include the following:
Summary of Interim Results. Interim reports will be prepared and presented to the Work Group to
provide study progress. Reports will include up-to-date compilation and analysis of the data and
ArcGIS spatial data products.
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2012 Lower River Geomorphology Study – May 2, 2012 Page 8
ArcGIS Spatial Products. Shapefiles with current riverine habitat types, the geomorphic
assessment and the reach delineation will be created. All map and spatial data products will be
delivered in the two-dimensional Alaska Albers Conical Equal Area projection, and North
American Datum of 1983 (NAD 83) horizontal datum consistent with ADNR standards. Naming
conventions of files and data fields, spatial resolution, and metadata descriptions will meet the
ADNR standards established for the Susitna-Watana Hydroelectric Project.
Technical Memorandum. A technical memorandum summarizing the 2012 results will be
prepared and presented to resource agency personnel and other licensing participants, along
with spatial data products. At a minimum, the technical memorandum will include:
Monthly and annual flow duration tables and curves for pre- and post-Project conditions.
Flood frequency and duration tables and curves for pre- and post-Project conditions.
Tabular and graphical curve comparison of the pre- and post-Project river stage for
Sunshine and Susitna Station gaging stations.
Summarized historical information regarding the effects of stream flow on aquatic
habitat.
Maps comparing present-day and historical (1980s) channel pattern and planform
changes, including position of main and side channels, presence of mid-channel bars,
vegetated bar areas, and tributary deltas.
Comparison of the relative proportion of the geomorphic features within each reach
between present-day and the historical channel pattern.
Develop sediment rating curves for historical record and 2012 USGS data (if available).
Tabulation of the total sediment load comparing pre- and post-Project total sediment
load for the Sunshine and Susitna gaging stations, for an average, wet, and dry year
type.
Determination of the fractional change in sediment transporting flows pre- and post-
Project and change in sediment supply pre- and post-Project applied to the Grant et al.
(2003) analytical framework to predict magnitude and direction of potential geomorphic
changes in the Lower River reach.
SCHEDULE
The following schedule for the 2012 scope of work is tentative.
Milestone Date of Completion
Summary of Interim Results May 21, June 29, and September 30, 2012
Final ArcGIS Spatial Products November 30, 2012
Final Technical Memorandum on 2012 Activity November 30, 2012
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