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Home My WebLink AboutAPA1805BEFORE THE FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY COMMISSION APPLICATION FOR LICENSE FOR MAJOR PROJECT SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT VOLUME 7 EXHIBIT E Chapters 4, 5, & 6 FEBRUARY 1983 .__ __ ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY __ ____. ,... r f r ! lc_- r r ,, SUS I TNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT VOLUl~E 7 EXHIBIT E CHAPTER 4 HISTORIC AND ARCHEOLOGICAL RESOURCES - ..... - - -i ..... 0) N 0 " ~ 0 0 0 1.0 1.0 " M M SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT VOLUME 7 EXHIBIT E CHAPTER 4 HISTORIC AND ARCHEOLOGICAL RESOURCES TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE 1 -INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY .. : . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . E-4-1 1.1 -Program Objectives ...................................... E-4-6 1.2 -Program Specifics ....................................... E-4-7 1.2.1 -Archeology ...................................... E-4-7 1.2.2 -Geoarcheology ................................... E-4-9 2 -BASELINE DESCRIPTION .......................................... E-4-11 2.1-The Study Area .......................................... E-4-11 2.1.1 -Archeology ...................................... E-4-11 2.1.2-Geoarcheology ......•............................ E-4-12 2.2 -Methods -Archeology and History ........................ E-4-12 2.2.1-Application of Data Base ........................ E-4-12 2 . 2 . 2 -Perm i t s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . E-4-17 2.2.3-literature Review ............................... E-4-17 2.2.4-Cultural Chronology ............................. E-4-18 2.2.5 -Research Design and Strate9y .................... E-4-18 2.2.6-Data Collection and Field Procedures ............ E-4-23 2. 3 -Methods -Geoarcheo logy 1980 ............................ E-4-28 2.3.1 -Literature Review ............................... E-4-28 2.3.2 -Geoarcheologi-c Terrain Unit Mapping ..•.......... E-4-29 2.3.3-Field Study ......... ~ ........................... E-4-29 2.3.4-Investigation and Dating of Samples ............. E-4-31 2.3.5-Methods-Geoarcheology 1981 ................•... E-4-31 2.4 -Known Archeological and Hjstoric Sites in the Project Area ...... ~ .................. ·-.. ~.. . .. .. .. . E-4-32 2. 4.1 -Introduction ................ ~ ................... E-4-32 2. 4. 2 -Watana Dam and Impoundment ...................... E-4-36 2.4.3-Devil Canynn Dam and Impoundment ................ £-4-52 2.4.4-Proposed Borrow Site5, Asso~iated Faciliti-es, and Areas Disturbed by Geotechnical Testing ..... E-4-56 2.4. 5 -Proposed Access Routes and Associ-a.ted Borrow Sites .............. ~ ...... ·-......... ~ ... E-4-59 2.4.6-Tran5miss1on Corridors .......................... E-4-64 2. 4. 7 -Other Areas .•.................•......... ·~ . . . . . . E-4-66 2.5-Geoarcheology ···············•····~···-·················· E-4-107 2.5.1-Introduction ............ ~ ....................... £-4-107 2.5.2 -Geoarcheologic Terrain Unit Mapping ............. E-4-108 2.5.3 -Stratigraphic Framework ........•....•.......•.. E-4-108 2.5.4 -Preliminary Glacial-Geomorphologic ~appi ng Genera 1 Comments ...................... :. . E--4-108 2.5.5 -The last Gtaciation ......... -~ ................ ~. ~E-4-108 2-.5.6-Archeological Stratigraphy .................. ·-.. E-4-109 TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE 2.5.7-Cultural Horizons ............................... E-4-109 2.5.8 -Chronology and History .......................... E-4-110 2.5.9-Mammoth/Mastodon Fossil Discovery ............... E-4-110 2.5.10-Summary of Geologic History .................... E-4-110 3-EVALUATION OF AND IMPACT 01~ HISTORIC AND ARCHEOLOGICAL SITES .. E-4-113 3.1 -Evaluation of Selected Sites Found: Prehistory and History of the Middle Susitna River Region .......... E-4-113 3 .1.1 -Introduction . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . E-4-113 3.1.2-Contemporary Sites: 1945 to Present ............ E-4-113 3.1.3 -Trapping Period: 1920-1945 ..................... E-4-114 3.1.4 -Exploration/Gold Rush: 1897-1920 ............... E-4-114 3.1.5-Athapaskan Tradition: A.D. 1900-A.D. 500 ...... E-4-114 3.1.6 -Choris/Norton Tradition: ca. A.D. 500 ca. 1500 B.C .................................... E-4-116 3.1.7 -Northern Archaic Tradition: ca. 1500 B.C. - ca. 3000 B.C .................................... E-4-118 3.1.8 American Paleoarctic Tradition: ca. 3000 B.C. -ca. 9000 B.C .................... E-4-120 3.1.9 -Early Period: ca. 30,000 B.C. - ca. 20,000 B.C .................................. E-4-121 3.1.10-Summary ........................................ E-4-121 3.2-Impact on Historic and Archeological Sites .............. E-4-123 3.2.1-Introduction .. ~ ................................. E-4-123 3.2.2-Significance .................................... E-4-124 3. 2. 3 -Watana Dam and Impoundment ...................... E-4-125 3. 2.4 -Devil Canyon Dam and Impoundment ................ E-4-125 3.2.5-Proposed Borrow Sites, Associated Facilities, and Sites Disturbed by Geotechnical Testing ..... E-4-126 3.2.6 Proposed Access Routes .......................... E-4-126 3.2.7 -Proposed Transmission Corridors ................. E-4-126 3.2.8-Other Portions of the Study Area ................ E-4-127 4 -MITIGATION OF IMPACT ON HISTORIC AND ARCHEOLOGICAL SITES ...... E-4-129 4.1-Mitigation Policy and Approach .......................... E-4-129 4.1.1 -Avoidance ....................................... E-4-129 4.1.2-Perservation .................................... E-4-129 4.1.3 -Investigation (Data Recovery) ................... E-4-130 4.2-Mitigation Plan ·-······································· E-4-130 4.2.1-Details of Plan ................................. E-4-130 4.2.2 -Schedule ........................................ E-4-132 4.2.3-Cost ............................................ E-4-135 4.2.4-Statement of Sources and Extent of Financing .... E-4-136 - - - - """~; ! - - I""'\ i I - - - -I .... , - r i .- - I"" i - - TABLE OF CONTENTS 5 -AGENCY CONSULTATION .............•..•.......................... 5.1 -Consultation Methods ......... o ................... o .... .. 5.2 -Summary of Comments o ••••••••••••• o •••••• 0 •••••••• o ••••• o REFERENCES 5.2.1-Research Design .oo•····o··o······o••o••o••o••o•• 5 . 2 0 2 -1'1 it i gat ion P 1 an .. 0 ••••••••••••••••••• 0 •••••••••• LIST OF TABLES LIST OF FIGURES PAGE E-4-137 E-4-137 E-4-137 E-4-137 E-4-137 i i i APPENDIX E4A-Antiquities Permits Stipulations o .. o ............ o .. E4A-l .GLOSSARY - - - - -~ ' - ,. ... LIST OF TABLES Table E. 4.1 -Impact on Cultural Resources by Area Table E.4.2-Susitna Hydroelectric Project- Cultural Resources Table E.4. 3-Summary of Impact by Location i LIST OF FIGURES Figure E. 4.1 -Location of Susitna Hydroelectric Project ..... Figure E. 4.2 -Location of Upper Susitna River Basin Figure E. 4. 3 -Study Area for Cultural Resources and Associated !""" Activities -Sus itna R lVer Figure E. 4. 4 -Study Area for Cu1tural Resources -Transmission Corridors Figure E. 4. 5 -Upper Susitna River Stratigraphic Units and Tephrochronology .... - - - - - ii - 1"'"'1 - - ~ -HISTORIC AND ARCHEOLOGICAL RESOURCES 1 -INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY To date, three field seasons of reconnaissance level survey and two field seasons of systematic testing have been conducted in association with the Susitna Hydroelectric Project (1980, 1981 and 1982). The results of the first two years of the project are presented in .. Cul- tural Resources Investigation for the Susitna Hydroelectric Project: A Preliminary Cultural Resource Survey in the Upper Susitna River Valley .. (Dixon et al. 1982a). The final results of the field work conducted in 1982 wi 11 be submitted to FERC in March 1983. Preliminary results on the 52 sites documented in 1982 are included in this report. A five-step cultural resource program was developed to comply with federal and state laws and regulations concerning protection of cultural resources for the proposed Susitna Hydroelectric Project. The five steps, listed in Section 1.1, were aimed toward locating and documenting archeological and historical resources within rreselected survey 1 ocal es (areas affected by preconstruct ion activities were also examined) and testing and evaluating these resources to determine potential eligibility to the National Register of Historic Places and proposing mitigation measures to avoid or lessen the adverse impact which may result from the proposed project. This application presents the results of a three-year cultural resource survey in the middle to upper Susitna River region, an impact analysis, a proposed mitigation plan to mitigate the adverse effects of the proposed project on significant cultural resources known to date and recommendations for continued studies. Further study is scheduled for 1983 and 1984 to complete the cultural resource inventory and necessary systematic testing. In preparation for Held studies, all necessary permits were obtained; literature pertaining to the archeology, ethnology, history, geology, paleoecology, paleontology, flora and fauna in and near the study area was reviewed; and available aerial photographs were examined •. These data were used to develop a tentative cultural chronology for the study area and focused effort. toward defining types of archeological site locales for each culture period within the geochronologic units. These data, coupled with paleoecological information, were used to select survey locales, 126 of v.tlich were surveyed during the 1980, 1981 and 1982 field seasons. To date, 167 sites have been documented. It is estimated that con- tinued survey will locate an additional 80 sites. Using this projec- tion of the number of new sites expected, 67 percent of the sites have been located to date. Because of the nature of this calculation, i.e. E-4-1 1-Introduction being based on a projected number of new sites, the percentage of sites found to date is preliminary. The methods and defined study area varied for each aspect of study, i.e., archeology and geology (Figure E.4.3). The archeological and historical reconnaissance implemented surface and subsurface testing within the preselected survey locales in an effort to locate historic and archeologic sites. Survey data were consistently recorded on Site Survey forms r.ttich enabled systematic recording of information for each site and survey 1 ocal e. For each site located during reconnaissance level testing, regional maps, site maps, soil profiles, photographs, and other data were re- corded. All specimens collected were accessioned into the University of Alaska Museum. Sites were given both University of Alaska Museum accession numbers and Alaska Heritage Resources Survey numbers. Geological studies generated data that were used in selecting archeo- logical survey locales. Data concerning surficial geological deposits and glacial events of the last glaciation as well as more recent vol- canic ashes were compiled and provided limiting dates for human occupa- tion of the middle Susitna River valley. This information was call ected by 1 iterature review and field studies. Geological data collected during 1980 were· incorporated into the 1981 and 1982 archeological programs. Archeological reconnaissance in 1980, 1981 and 1982 located and docu- mented 6 historic and 161 prehistoric sites, 5 of which were originally located by other investigators during brief surveys in 1971 and 1978 and 6 sites were documented in the files of the Alaska Office of History and Archeology, bringing the total known to date to 167. It is expected that continued survey will locate additional sites. Sites are a 1 so known adjacent to the study area near Stephan Lake, Fog Lakes, Lakes Susitna, Tyone and Louise, and along the Tyone River. Systematic testing was designed to call ect data on which to base the evaluation of significance for cultural resources discovered, which will assist in determining the eligibility of sites for nomination to the National·Register of Historic Places, and to assess impact in order to develop mitigation measures and a general mitigation plan for sig- nificant sites located to date. Although in most cases systematic testing is necessary to address significance, the fact that many of the sites can be placed ·stratigraphically in relation to three distinct volcanic ashes makes it possible to consider the collective signifi- cance of all the sites because of the potential they hold for delineat- ing the first cultural chronology for the middle Susitna region, as well as addressing questions concerning lifeways and cultural processes. Because of the large size of the study area, number of sites located and available field time, it was possible to systematically test only 21 sites to date. Because of the minimal amount of data available E-4-2 ..... - - - - - - - - - - . - - 1 -Introduction pertaining to the cultural hi story of south-central Alaska and the middle Susitna River in particular, the primary reason for selecting these 21 sites was that they appeared to have the potential for providing data that could be used to document the cultural chronological sequence for this region of Alaska. Both reconnaissance and systematically tested sites were evaluated to delineate the JXeviously undocumented prehistory and history of the middle Susitna River region. These data enabled a cultural chronology to be developed \'tlich includes the following periods: Contemporary (1945-present); Trapping (1920-1945}; Exploration/Goldrush (1897- 1920); Athapaskan Tradition (A.D. 1900-A.D. 500); Choris/Norton Tradition (ca. 1500 B.C. -ca. A.D. 500); Northern Archaic Tradition (ca. 3000 B.C. -ca. 1500 B.C.); and the American Pal eoarctic Tradition (ca. 9000 B.C.? -ca. 3000 B.C.?). Impact on cultural resources will vary in relation to the type of activities that occur on or near them. Based on the present two-dam proposal (Devil Canyon and Watana) and the resultant increase in public access' 70 of the sites known to date within the study area will be directly or indirectly impacted and 89 could potentially be impacted during construction and subsequent use and operation of the facility. Because of their location away from impact areas, it appears that eight sites wi 11 not be impacted by the project. The impact of recreational activities, upriver and downriver changes in hydrology, land access and use, and the proposed transmission corri- dors cannot be assessed at this time because of the lack of information concerning the amount, type and location of disturbances associated with these activities. Once· all of the development plans are fi na 1 i zed, those sites in the potentia 1 category can be designated as likely to receive direct, indirect, or no impacts by .project-related activities. Thirty sites are JXesently known in areas that wi 11 be affected by the Watana Dam and its impoundment. All 30 sites will be directly im- pacted • Seven sites are JXesently known within the area to be affected by the Devil Canyon dam and its impoundment. All seven sites wi 11 be direct·ly impacted by the project. Seven archeological sites were 'found and documented in JXOposed borrow sites, associated facilities, and areas disturbed by geotechnical test- ; ng. One Will be directly impacted and two· have the potential of being impacted. It appears that four sites wi 11 not be impacted by the project. Five sites are JXesently known along the proposed access route and associated JXOposed borrow sites. All five sites will receive indirect E-4-3 1 -Introduction impact. Although twelve sites occurred within proposed borrow sites for the access corridor, these areas have been subsequently eliminated from consideration as borrow sources. Thirteen sites have been recorded within the proposed transmission corridors. At this time, it appears that one site will be indirectly impacted and twelve sites could potentially be impacted. Further impact assessment must await detailed information on these corridors. The transmission corridor from the Watana damsite was selected after the 1982 field season and remains to be surveyed at the reconnaissance 1 evel. Une hundred three sites are presently documented in areas out- side the above categories but within the project area. Twenty-six sites wi 11 be indirectly impacted and 75 could potentially be impacted. It appears that four sites will not be impacted by the hydroelectric project. To date, approximately 85-90 percent of the portion of the Devil Canyon damsi te and impoundment considered to have cultural resource potential (including both direct and indirect impact area) has been surveyed. Approximately 50 percent of the Watana damsite and impoundment con- sidered to have site potential (including both direct and indirect impact areas) has been surveyed. For other ares that will be disturbed by the Susitna Hydroelectric Project--borrow sites, camps, geotechnical testing areas, and the proposed air strip--approximately 50-60 percent of these areas have been examined to date. The proposed access road [approximately 79 miles (131.7 km)] and transmission corridor [Fair- banks-Healy and Willow-Anchorage, approximately 170 miles (283 km)] have received only preliminary survey to date with less than 1 percent of the area receiving on-the-ground investigation in both these areas. No survey has been conducted on the proposed railroad [approximately 12 miles (20 km) j. No sites on the National Register of Historic Places were known in the study area jTior to this study. Of the 167 known sites, 20 of the 21 sites systematically tested to date appear to qualify for inclusion in the National Register. Based on the results of the reconnaissance survey and the limited systematic testing of the selected archeological sites, the project area holds excellent potential for addressing many long-standing anthropological questions. Three tephras permit strati- graphic correlation between many sites and site components. This presents a uniquely significant opportunity to define the development of these archeological traditions which has not been possible elsewhere in interior or south-central Alaska. No single site has been found Which jTeserves the cultural chrono 1 ogy from deglaciation to historic times, but the tephras enable cultural development to be traced through time based on comparisons of a series of sites which can be clearly documented to be temporally discrete. E-4-4 ..... - - - - - - - - - 1 -Introduction With all this information, it is possible to state that most of the sites found to date in the study area are likely significant and could collectively hold the potential for defining the prehistory for this region of Alaska and, therefore, may be eligible for inclusion in the National Register of Historic Places. Given this level of significance, it may be appropriate to nominate these sites to the National Register as an archeological district because of the unique opportunity the known sites in this area (as well as the yet undiscovered sites) have for addressing questions concerning the prehistory and history of a large portion of interior Alaska which is presently not well defined. If a nomination of this type is made, it should be done in concert with the State Historic Preservation Officer and the FERC. Continued reconnaissance and systematic testing is necessary to locate and document as many sites as possible, given the present level of technology, to assist in the mitigation of impacts. A mitigation plan to lessen project impacts on cultural resources is a basic management tool providing options to be considered during the overall decision- making and planning process. Although the concept has and is presently undergoing refinement, it clearly consists of three options: avoid- ance, preservation, and investigation. For sites to be adversely impacted by the Susitna Hydroelectric Pro- ject, either directly or indirectly, systematic testing is currently recommended in order to determine significance and el igibl ity to the National Register of Historic Places. Based on this testing level, a decision on the level of investigation required can be made through consultation with the SHPO and appropriate land managing agency. For all sites that could be potentially damaged, avoidance with an accom- panying monitoring plan is currently recommended. This monitoring plan should be developed in concert with the appropriate land managing agency and the SHPO. When all the activities associated with construc- tion and use of the project are identified, it will then be possible to determine whether sites in this category wi 11 receive direct impact, indirect impact, or no impact. The appropriate mitigation measures can then be developed. It is presently estimated that it will take two years to complete the archeological and historical inventory and the necessary systematic testing. The scope and duration of any mitigation program must await completion and evaluation of systematic testing. However, a prel imi- nary estimate for an investigation program to mitigate adverse effects is 5 to 7 years. The estimated cost of completing the cultural re- source inventory and the necessary systematic testing is $2,391,152. The cost estimate for mitigating adverse effects to cultural resources can only be made after the cultural resource inventory and systematic testing are completed and the number of sites requiring investigation E-4-5 1.1-Program Objectives and/or preservation determined. Ho\'v€ver, a preliminary estimate for mitigation activities, not including logistics support, is $8,000,000 (see Section 4. 2. 3 for details on cost estimates). 1.1 -Program Objectives In order to comply with cultural resource laws and regulations, and to meet the criterion for the FERC 1 icense application, a five-step program was developed to document, evaluate, and recommend mitigation measures for these resources. These steps include: -Step 1: Study Design and Field Study Preparation -Step 2: Reconnaissance Level Survey -Step 3: Systematic Testing '-Step 4: Analysis and Report Preparation -Step 5: Curation The five steps outlined above are aimed at fulfilling the tWJ objec- tives of the project: Identification of archeological and historical resources. This process was impl enented during the 1980 field season and continued through the 1981 and 1982 field seasons. Ho\'v€ver, only a portion of the project area has been exanined to date, and additional survey is required to complete the cultural resource inventory. To date, approximately 85-90 percent of the surveyable portions of the Devil CanJUn dan and impoundment and approximately 50 percent of the Watana dan and impoundment have been exanined. For other areas that will be disturbed by the project--borrow sites, camps, and geotechnical testing areas--approx im atel y 50-60 percent of these areas have been investigated. Less than 1 percent of the proposed access road and the transmission corridor have received on-the-ground investigation to date. No survey has been conducted along the route of the proposed rai 1 road. Based on the portion of the areas investigated to date, 167 sites have been documented. It is estimated that an additional 80 sites will be 1 ocated during cant in ued survey in areas rem ai ni ng to be ex an ined. Systematic testing and evaluation of these resources in order to evalu- ate significance and make recommendations for mitigating potential adverse effects that preconstruction studies, dca11 construction, and/or dam operation may have on them. Systematic testing was conducted in 1981 and 1982 on 21 sites. Continued systematic testing is required to determine potential National Register eligibility of the remaining sites that will be adversely impacted by the project. E-4-6 - -- - - - - - 1.2 -Program Specifics At present, there are 49 sites requiring systematic testing. It is estimated that continued archeological surveying will result in an additional 25 sites that will require this same level of testing. The actual number of sites requiring systematic testing will depend on the results of continued survey scheduled for 1983 and 1984. 1.2 -Program Specifics 1.2.1-Archeology (a) Step 1: Study Design and Field Study Preparation Prior to implementing the field program it was necessary to complete the following tasks: ( i) Permits Federal and state archeological permits were applied for and received. (ii) Literature Literature pertaining to the archeology, ethnology, history, geology, paleontology, flora and fauna of . the study area as well as adjacent regions was reviewed prior to preparing the research design. (iii) Archeological, Ethnological, and Historical Data Archeological, ethnological, and historical data were synthesized into a regional and local chronology in an effort to predict the. types and ages of sites that could be expected to occur within the study area. In addition to cultural data, geological data concerning the last glaciation were also examined in order to establish limiting dates for human occupation of specific areas within the middle Susitna River basin. Objectives of the geoarcheol ogy portion of the cul- tural resource studies are discussed in -this section. Results of 1980, 1981 and 1982 field studies indicate that prefield season projections of site locations and temporal placement provided reliable estimates of what has been subsequently documented. (iv) Aerial Photographs Aerial photographs of the study area were examined, the interpretation of which focused on identifying probable areas containing cultural resources as well as supplementing geoarcheological data. E-4-7 1.2-Program Specifics (v) Cultural Resources All previously recorded cultural resources in the study area were plotted on 1: 63, 360 USGS maps in order to document tile 1 ocat ion of sites within and adjacent to the study area. (vi) Areas with Low Potential for Cultural Resources Areas were identified that had no or very 1 ow poten- tial for cultural resources: steep canyon walls, areas of standing water, and exposed gravel bars. These areas were eliminated from reconnaissance 1 evel testing unless ground disturbing activities were scheduled, in which case testing (when possible) was conducted. (b) Step 2: Reconnaissance Level Testing The purpose of this step was to identify, locate, and inven- tory archeological and historical sites within the study area, which can then be systematically tested. Data synthe- sized and generated about the study area were used to select survey locales for testing. Maps of each survey locale examined in 1980 and 1981 can be found in Appendix E of Dixon et al. (1982a). Survey locales examined in 1982 are included in the report documenting this field season (Dixon et a 1 • 1982b). During the 1980, 1981 and 1982 field seasons, 126 survey locales were examined using surface and subsurface testing procedures. In addition, reconnaissance testing was con- ducted as needed at boreho 1 es, auger ho 1 es, proposed borrow sites, helicopter landing zones, and the proposed Watana airstrip along seismic lines and along proposed access routes. The proposed transmission corridors from Fairbanks to Healy and Wi 11 ow to Anchorage and the proposed access route have received preliminary reconnaissance survey. (c) Step 3: Systematic Testing The purpose of this step was to test sites located during the reconnaissance level survey in order to collect suffi- cient data to address site significance, eligibility to the National Register, and impact, in order to develop mitiga- tion measures and a general mitigation plan. Systematic testing, which began in 1981 and continued in 1982, required transit surveys of sites, topographic mapping, and excava- tion of selected units using standard archeological methods. E-4-8 - - - - - - - I""" ' - r l r I - 1.2 -Program Specifics In addition, site maps and soil profiles of excavation units producing cultural material were drawn and photographs taken. {d) Step 4: Analysis and Report Preparation This step was an integral part of each step of the project. It entailed compilation of the individual reports for the other steps of the project as well as synthesizing all data recovered and making recommendations for mitigating adverse effects on cul tura 1 resources when sufficient data were available to make recommendations. (e) Step 5: Curation Recording of recovered artifactual material and associated contextual data was and will be an ongoing program through- out the duration of and after the project. As specified by the Federal Antiquity· Permit obtained for this project, materials and supporting documentation must be stored and maintained in a sui tab 1 e repository. The designated repository is the University of Alaska MUseum. Artifacts recovered to date have been accessioned into their appropriate collections at the University of Alaska Museum in accordance with state and federal requirements pertinent to the preservation of antiquities. 1. 2. 2 -Geoarcheo 1 ogy In order to accomplish the archeological objectives, it was necessary to conduct geoarcheological studies to generate base- line data on the surficial geological deposits and glacial events in the study area which provided one of several criteria subse- quently applied to the selection of survey locales during 1980, 1981,and 1982. Additionally, geoarcheological studies provide limiting dates for the earliest possible human occupation of spe- cific areas within the region as we 11 as base 1 i ne data on vo 1- canic ashes (tephras) within the study area which can be used to provide relative dates for many of the archeological sites. E-4-9 - -' - - - - - - E-4-10 - 2 -8ASELINE UESCRIPTION 2. 1 -The Study Area 2. 1. 1 -Arch eo 1 ogy The general cultural resource study area was defined as those lands within approximately 3 km (2 mi) of the Susitna River from just below Devil Canyon to the mouth of the Tyone River (Figures E. 4. 1, E. 4. 2, E. 4. 3 and E. 4. 4). With respect to the dams, the areas expected to be impounded, plus a 100-m (330-ft) zone beyond this, were given priority for testing. Also included were the proposed access corridor and transmission qorridors from Fair- banks to Healy and Anchorage to Willow. Areas outside the defined study area were ex ami ned when it was necessary to obtain data essential to the cultural resource study, as well as to examine areas that could be impacted by changes in the project and those that would likely be affected by recreational use of the area. The study area delineated for cultural resource studies included direct, indirect, and potentia 1 impact areas. Direct impact is the immediately demonstrable effect of a land modification pro- ject on the resource base. Indirect impact relates to adverse effects that are secondary but clearly brought out by the 1 and modification rx-oject which would not have occurred without the project. Potential impact is connected with ancillary develop- ment which can be rx-edicted to occur as a result of the rx-oject and which may or may not impact sites. Ui rect impact areas include the rx-oposed reservoirs of the De vi 1 Canyon and Watana dams, proposed dam construction sites and asso- ciated facilities, proposed borrow sites, proposed access and transmission corridors, and any other areas subject to subsurface disturbance during preconstruction, construction, or operation of the Susitna Hydroelectric Project including downcutting and ero- sion caused by changes in stream and river flow resulting from fluctuation of water levels of the reservoir. Indirect impact areas are those outside the above areas but no net he 1 ess affected by the project because of such activities as increased access to remote areas afforded by roads into the project area. Potentia 1 impact can be expected to occur as a result of increased access. The exact nature of this impact remains .to be demonstrated. The study area is not static. It. has changed and wi 11 cant i nue to change in response to modifications in the engineering of the hydroelectric rx-oject, as well as to new data provided by ongoing studies associated with the overall project, such as land use analysis and recreation planning. Should the definition of the project area change, the FERC, the Alaska SHPO, and the appropriate land managing agencies will be informed of said changes. For any new areas, the appropriate inventory measures waul d be implemented and a cultural resources E-4-11 2.2 -Methods -Archeology and History management plan developed in consultation with these agencies as soon as possible after the identification of these areas. 2.1.2-Geoarcheology The study area for geoarcheol ogical studies supporting cultural resource analysis was approximately 16 km (10 mi) wide on each side of the Susitna River extending from the Portage Creek area to the mouth of the Maclaren River (Figure £.4. 3). When neces- sary, contiguous areas were examined. 2.2 -Methods -Archeology and History In preparation for field studies, a research design based on current data was developed. The research design integrated the current data (Appendices A, Bin Dixon et al. 1982a) into a cultural chronological framework and developed a research strategy that was structured to pre- dict archeological site locations in relation to physical and topo- graphic features within the limits of contemporary archeological method and theory. Based on the delineated cultural chronology, documented site locales for each culture period, geoarcheologic evaluation, and paleoecological data of the project area, survey locales were identi- fied as exhibiting relatively high potential for archeological site occurrence. These locales were subject to preliminary examination for cultural resources representing various periods of Alaska rw-ehistory. Additional high-potential areas remain as well as areas that have vary- ing degrees of site potential wi1ich must also be examined. The data used in selecting the survey locales are presented below (see Section 1.1 for percent of areas examined to date). 2.2.1 -Application of Data Base (a) Cultural Chronology A tentative cultural chronology was constructed utilizing archeological data from known sites in or. adjacent to the study area. Archeological sites of several cultural periods spanning the past ca. 10,000 years and several cultural/ historical periods are known. These data assisted in selecting survey locales. Archeological sites which were expected to occur in the middle Susitna region were not expected to exceed 9000 B.C. in age, based on the sequence of degl aci at ion that occurred in the area. The earliest sites that were expected in the study area were those representing the American Pal eoarctic Tradition, specifically the Denali Complex for which West (1975) ascribes a date of ca. 10,000 B.C. to 4500 B.C. This distinctive and long-lasting stone tool industry is characterized by wedge-shaped microblade cores, microblades, core tablets, bifacial knives, burins, burin spalls and end scrapers. Incorporation of Denali into the American E-4-12 - - - - ..... - .... - - - , ... ! 2.2 -Methods -Archeology and History Paleoarctic Tradition follows Dumond (1977) who suggests that the Denali Complex is a regional variant of the American Paleoarctic Tradition as defined by Anderson (1968a). The Denali Complex has been dated between 8600 B. C. and 4000 B.C. in interior Alaska. There appears to be a hiatus of Denali sites in the interior archeological record after 4000 B.C.; however, several sites in the Tanana Valley which contain elements thought to be distinctive of the Denali Complex date between 2400 B. C. and A. D. 1000. This may suggest a late persistence of this stone industry. Sites representative of the Denali Complex are located in areas adjacent to the study area. The oldest dated Denali Complex site in the Alaska Range area is Component I I, at the Dry Creek site \'tlich dates to ca. 8600 B.C. (Powers and Hamilton 1978) • Other sites containing the Denali Complex in surrounding regions are Teklanika 1 and 2 near Mt. McKinley; MMK-004 at Lake Minchumina; the Campus site; the Village site at Healy Lake; site FAI-062 (central Tanana Valley); the Donelly Ridge site; several undated Denali sites on the Ft. Wain- wright Reservation in the central Tanana Valley; several sites at Tangle Lakes; two sites near Lake Susitna and upper Cook Inlet; the Beluga Point site; and the Long Lake site in the Talkeetna Mountains. · These suggest that the Denali peoples were extremely widespread and occupied both inland and coastal zones. If a continuum beween early and late Denali proves to be real, a time span of over 9000 years would exist for Oenali peoples. The available information suggested that sites representing the Dena 1 i period existed within the study area. Sites containing elements associ a ted with the Denali complex were found as a result of surface and subsurface testing in the study area (see Chapters 3, 4, and 7 in Dixon et al. 1982a). The question of the late duration of the Denali Complex is not settled. Several sites in regions adjacent to the study area have yielded materials similar to those of the Denali Complex, i.e., microblades, microblade cores, and burins, which have late dates. These are the Village site at Healy Lake with a date of ca. A.D. 500 (Cook 1969), and MMK-004 at Lake Minchumina dated ca. A.D. 800-1000 (Holmes 1978). At the Dixthada site, similar material has been dated to ca. 470 B.C. Several as yet undated sites containing Denali-like material were also located during a 1979 survey in the central Tanana Valley (Dixon et al. 1980a) and could represent late Denali occupation. E-4-13 2.2-Methods-Archeology and History Sites potentially of late Denali age in areas near the upper Susitna study area suggest that late Denali sites could also exist in the study area. Several sites documented during the 1980 and 1981 field seasons may represent this period; however, further testing and evaluation are necessary in order to support this hypothesis. Areas surrounding the study area have produced sites repre- sentative of the Northern Archaic Tradition as defined by Anderson (1968b) which date from ca. 4500 B.C. Northern Archaic sites include Lake Minchumina, Dry Creek, the Campus site, the Village site at Healy Lake, several sites found at Ft. Wainwright in 1979, Tangle Lakes, Lake Susitna, Beluga Point, and the Ratekin site. The distribution of these sites is similar to that for the Denali Complex sites. This tradition is characterized by notched projectile points, notched pebbles, a variety of bifaces, end scrapers, and notched boulder chip scrapers. A site on Stephan Lake (TLM 007) dating to ca. 4000 B.C. suggested the presence of the Northern Archaic Tradition in the study area. Several pro- jectile point types indicative of this tradition were found during the 1980, 1981 and 1982 field seasons and, along with several radiocarbon dates that correspond to the time span for this culture period, indicate that this tradition is present in the upper Susitna valley (Section 3.1 and Chapters 3, 4, and 7 in Dixon et al. 1982~). The Arctic Small Tool Tradition is characterized. by assem- blages containing microblade cores, microblades, burins, burin spall artifacts, flake knives, and bifacial end blades. This tradition is represented by coastal and non- coastal sites, several of the latter being known from the Alaska interior. Dumond (1977) suggests that the Arctic Small Tool Tradition can broadly encompass a Denbigh- Choris-Norton continuum, and this is how the tradition is used here. One site adjacent to the study area, Lake Susitna Site 9, has been suggested as a possible Arctic Small Tool Tradition (Irving 1957). A date of 2200 to 2800 B.C. has been documented for the Artie Small Tool occupation at Onion Portage (Anderson 1968) but may be somewhat later in the southern interior. Norton period sites, the late end of the Arctic Small Tool Tradition continuum, first appear on the Bering Sea coast about ca. 500 B.C. Norton does not predate 400 B. C. in the upper portion of the Naknek drainage, and lasts to ca. A.D. 1000 around much of the Bering Sea area (Dumond 1977). Shortly after its appearance (ca. 500 B.C.), Norton may be represented in interior Alaska archeological E-4-14 ~ I - ·""" I i -I -' - - .,... 2.2-Methods-Archeology and History sites. This is suggested by artifacts from Lake Minchumina, the Beluga Point site in upper Cook Inlet and possibly one site in-the Upper Susitna River Valley. It should also be noted that Norton period sites in the Bristol Bay region tend to occur well up major salmon streams, presumably exploiting this rich resource (Dumond 1977). Inland Norton period sites demonstrate the impor- tance of caribou in the Norton subsistence strategy (Dumond 1977). The Beluga Point site in upper Cook Inlet may repre- sent the maritime portion of the Norton subsistence cycle. Norton populations employed a subsistence pattern that included the seasonal exploitation of both coastal resources (sea mammals, shell fish, and fish) and interior resources (caribou, moose, salmon, etc.). This shift in subsistence strategy may have been a response to climatic amelioration which occurred after 1000 B.C. and preceded the "Little Ice Age,. (ca. A.D. 1600-A.D. 1800). This change in resource exploitation may be reflected by the occurrence of a possible Norton period archeological site in the Susitna study area. Late prehistoric Athapaskan and historic period sites have also been documented in areas adjacent to the study area. Late prehistoric Athapaskan sites are presented at Lake Minchumina; the upper component at the Healy Lake Village site; the upper component at Dixthada; several sites at Tangle Lakes; other sites on Lakes Susitna, Louise, and Tyone; a reported site on the Tyone River; and another site in the vicinity of upper Cook Inlet. These late prehistoric Athapaskan sites indicate widespread occupation of several regions in Alaska by these groups. Dumond and Mace (1968) have suggested, based on archeological and historical data, that Tanaina Athapaskans may have replaced the Pacific Eskimo in upper Cook Inlet sometime between A.D. 1650 and A.D. 1780. Possibly this replacement occurred somewhat earlier in the study area. Several sites representing this period were documented in the upper Susitna River valley during this study (see Chapters 3, 4, and 7 in Dixon et al. 1982a). The chronology presented here is speculative and was intended to provide a baseline from which archeological sites of different periods in the project area could be expected. This chronology is presently being tested and refined using data from archeological sites located in the study area. The relationship of this chronology to actual sites found is discussed in Chapter 7 of Dixon et al. (1982a). E-4-15 - 2.2 -Methods -Archeology and History In order to evaluate the significance of archeological sites located during survey and testing (with respect to National Register criteria), as well as aid in the analysis of archeological materials collected, it was necessary to explicate hypotheses which could be tested and evaluated utilizing the project data. A fundamental hypothesis examined in this study was the validity of the cultural chronology which was proposed. To test the cultural chronology, each period must be examined separately against archeological data from sites 1 ocated during survey. To evaluate a site against a proposed period in the chronology, it is necessary that the full range of artifactual material from the site, not just selected types, and nonarti factual contexts be compared against the known range of artifactual material from sites of the period and the attempt made to explain the range of variability and the anomalies. This should lead to a fuller understanding of periods involved, or the elimination of invalid periods for the study area and possibly the delineation of others pre- sently unknown. (b) Geoarcheological Data Geoarcheological data was reviewed, aerial photographs examined, and a preliminary data base developed which pro- vided information on glacial events and surficial geological deposits within and adjacent to the study area (see Chapter 5 in Dixon et al. 1982a). These data were used in conjunc- tion with archeological data to select survey locales for testing. Updated geoarcheological data were incorporated into ongoing cultural resource studies during the course of the project. During the 1980 field season, aerial reconnaissance was con- ducted in order to outline more specifically the distribu- tion and range of surface landforms and deposits as well as to examine the potential for stratigraphic work. Strati- graphic reconnaissance was conducted in a number of areas in order to generate data on major valley-forming geologic events. Geoarcheol ogi cal reconnaissance was conducted in order to examine land forms specifically associated with glacial events in the area such as moraines, deltas, 1 ake plains, and eskers, in order to suggest limiting data for cultural resources in specific areas. Based on the analysis of the above data, a preliminary geo- archeological terrain map was developed to assist cultural resource field studies. This map is on file at the E-4-16 - - - - -' - ..... .... ,.... .... -I I ! - 2. 2 -Methods -Arch eo 1 ogy and Hi story University of Alaska, Fairbanks. In addition, organic samples collected and submitted for radiocarbon analysis were use!i to provide keys to stratigraphic units within the study area, information wtl.ich was applied to site age wtlen- ever possible. Tephra samples were also collected in order to identify ash horizons noted in archeological sites and stratigraphic sections. As with the other geoarcheological data, this information was used to date cultural resources when pass i b 1 e. 2. 2. 2 -Permits Federal Anti qui ties permits and state of Alaska permits were obtai ned for the project • Survey and Expirat1on Testing Permit # Agency Activities Authorized Date Undertaken 80AK-23 DOl Archeological investi-2/6/81 Reconnaissance and systematic testing gations (consultation · services/limited testing) on pub1ic lands owned and contra 11 ed by the Department of the Interior in Alaska. 81AK-209 Same as above 6/28/84 Same as above 80-1 81-11 82-4 State Archeological 9/30/80 Same as above of reconnaissance and Alaska testing. Mlti gation when applicable. Same as Same as above 12/31/81 Same as above above Same as Same as above 9/30/82 Same as above above 2.2. 3 - l it,erature Revj ew titerature pertaining to the -archeology, history~ geology, and f1 or _a and fauna of the st11dy ar,ea and surrounding area~ was reviewed and incorporated into the research design. E-4-17 2.2 -Methods -Archeology and History 2.2.4 -Cultural Chronology The data resulting from the review of the archeological and his- torical 1 iterature was used to construct a tentative cultural chronology for cultural resources expected in the study area; provide data for the delineation of a predictive model for archeological potential of various project areas; and explicate hypotheses that could aid in the evaluation of sites located during survey and testing. A tentative chronology suggested that sites spanning the past ca. 10,000 years would be found in the study area. Preliminary analysis of cultural resources 1 ocated during the three field seasons of this project< indicates that sites representing all culture periods outlined in the research design occur in the study area. 2.2.5-Research Design and Strategy An analysis of the data derived from the literature search fo- cusing on site locales has established that archeological sites occur in a non-random pattern in relation to associated physical, topographic, and ecological features. Based on the analysis of site locational data from regions adjacent to the study area, the features characteristically associated with archeological site occurrence are discussed. bel ow. All· sites located during this study can effectively be placed in one or more of these cate- gories. (a) Over 1 oaks Overlooks are areas of higher topographic relief than much of the surrounding terrain. These areas are characteris- tically well drained and command a view of the surrounding region. It is generally inferred that overlooks served as hunting locales and/or possibly short-term campsites. Because these sites occur in eleva ted areas, soi 1 deposition is generally thin, and they .are frequently easily discovered through subsurface testing or examination of natural expo- sures. Examples of sites ascribed to the Denali Complex which occur in this setting are the Campus site, Donnelly Ridge, Susitna Lake, and the Teklanika sites. Northern Archaic Tradition sites also known to occur on overlooks are the Campus site, some sites in the Tangle Lakes area, Susitna Lake, the Ratekin site, and a site near the Watana dam project area. 'Archeological sites ascribed to the Arctic Small Tool Tradition frequently occur on .overlooks; however, no positively identified Arctic Small Tool sites situated on overl oaks have yet been reported from the study area or regions immediately adjacent to it. The Nenana River Gorge site, some of the Tangle Lakes sites, and Lake Susitna are all Athapaskan pel"iod sites which occur on overlooks. E-4-18 - - - - - - ,.. .. r- 1 I r i r i r - 2.2 -Methods -Archeology and History {b) (c) Lake Margins Sites ascribed to all defined traditions have been dis- covered on the margins of major lakes. It is generally in- ferred that they are frequently more permanent seasonal camps and that fishing, the exploitation of freshwater aquatic resources, and large mammal hunting were the primary economic activities associated with these sites. These inferences are primarily based on the location of these sites rather than an analysis of faunal and artifactual material. Sites on lake margins may exhibit greater soil deposition than overlooks because of their lower topographic position. Sites in this setting are frequently discovered through subsurface testing, the observation of surface features, or through the examination of natural exposures. Athapaskan sites on lake margins include those at Lake Minchumina, Healy Lake, Tangle Lakes, Lake Susitna, Lake Louise, and Lake Tyone. Archeological sites ascribed to the Arctic Small Tool Tradition reported to occur on lake margins include Healy Lake, Tangle Lakes, Susitna Lake, and Stephen Lake. Sites which may be ascribed to the Northern Archaic Tradition are also known to occur on lake margins, such as the Norton component reported at Lake Minchumina. Denali Complex sites which have been found near lakes include the Tangle Lake sites, Lake Minchumina, Healy Lake, Long Lake, and Lake Susitna. Stream and River Margins Numerous sites have been reported along the banks of aban- doned channels of streams and rivers. They vary from 1 arge semipermanent seasonal camps to what appear to be brief transient camps. Soil deposition at such locales may be greater than either 1 ake or overlook sites because of the low topographic setting of streams and an active agent {the stream or river) for soil deposition. Sites may be dis- covered through the examination of natural exposures, sub- surface testing, and visual observation of cultural fea- tures. Denali Complex sites reported along stream and river margins or abandoned channels include Dry Creek, Carlo Creek, and the Campus site. Northern Archaic Tradition sites found in this type of locale are Dry Creek and the Campus site. The Merrill site, which is ascribed to the Norton period of the Arctic Small Tool Tradition, is a former meander of the Kenai River. Athapaskan sites on stream and river margins include Dixthada, Dakah De'nin's Village and the Nenana River Gorge site~ E-4-19 2.2 -Methods -Archeology and History (d) Natural Constrictions Areas vtlere the topographic setting and surrounding terrain form natural constrictions tend to funnel game animals using the area. Lakes, rivers, streams, incised abandoned chan- nels, as well as mountains and hills, can produce, either singularly or in combination, natural funnels, concentrating game animals (especially herd animals) into areas that afford more efficient and effective exploitation of this re- source by human populations. Sites in the form of .. look- outs.. or actua 1 ki 11 sites caul d be associ a ted with these areas. In the upper Susitna River valley extant caribou herds presently use the area for summer and calving ranges and are subject to this funneling. Presumably this was the case in the past. (e) Areas Eliminated from Testing Program In addition to those areas mentioned above, areas that appeared to have no or very low archeological potential were also identified and eliminated from extensive study. These include areas of steep slopes (greater than 15 degrees) such as the walls of Devil Canyon; areas of standing water including the Susitna River itself, lakes and low swampy areas; and exposed gravel bars on the Susitna River. These areas were eliminated from survey except vtlen slated for ground-disturbing activities such as auger and boreholes, seismic testing, and the proposed Watana airstrip. In these cases, low-level helicopter reconnaissance, surface recon- naissance, and subsurface testing were conducted where possible. Numerous reconnaissance surveys were conducted in these types of areas, all with negative results. It can easily be noted in the review of site locational data that many sites have been subject to reoccupation and share more than one of the defined physical, topographic, or eco- logical features characteristic of archeological site locales. It would appear that there may be a compounding effect in human utilization of a locale, if more tha-n one of these major variables occur, thus possibly increasing the probability of its use and subsequent reuse. It is also recognized that this analysis is limited because it does not address known chronological and settlement pattern gaps in the archeological record. Additionally, sites such as caves, rock shelters, quarry sites, etc., are not reported immediately adjacent to the study area, although they may occur in the Susitna region. By focusing initial survey efforts in these locales, as well as natural exposures, it was anti'ci pated that most of the archeological sites that E-4-20 - - - - - - - - - - - - - F"' I - F"' ' r ! r ("" l - - - 2. 2 -Methods -Arc heal ogy and Hi story can easily be discovered would be found during initial stages of the project, thus provid·ing maximum time for evaluation and planning to ensure their protection. One hundred and sixty-seven archeological/ historic sites were recorded during the 1980, 1981 and 1982 field seasons through implementation of this research design and strategy. However, a problem in the delineation of the topographic, physical, and ecological features listed above is that a variety of specific settings are subsumed under these gene- ral categories and little precise detail about individual sites is available. One objective of the research design was to attempt to obtain more precise data relevant to pre- historic settlement patterns and the juxtaposition of indi- vidual sites in relation to the natural environment. Forms used to compile these data are discussed below and presented in Appendix C in Dixon et al. (1982a). It is anticipated that analysis of these data will increase predictability for locating archeological sites. Additionally, this examina- tion may permit detailed analysis of shifting .subsistence patterns during various cultural historical periods which in turn may enable correlation of changing settlement patterns with environmental change(s). Recorded field data gathered detailed site-specific informa- . tion such as the geomorphic feature on which sites were located, topographic position and elevation, slope, expo- sure, view, stratigraphy, as well as details about the surrounding terrain and environment. This specific kind of information may enable an analysis of settlement patterns in relation to ecological variables and human response to changes in these variables through time. A Site Survey form was developed which outlines the specific kinds of informa- tion that field personnel were required to record. This form is presented in Appendix C of Dixon et al. (1982a). Similar information was also collected at locales where test pit.s did not yield cultural evidence to facilitate analysis of areas where sites do not occur. The research design and strategy developed for this project were based on a plan designed to provide feedback data throughout the project so that new data caul d be used to modify, refine, and further develop the cultural resources investigation. Primary objectives of the field research program were: (1) examination of areas which would be immediately affected by the Susitna Hydroelectric Project (proposed airstrips, borrow sites, drilling locales, etc.); E-4-21 2.2 -Methods -Archeology and History {2) survey and testing of the documented archeological site locales; (3) an on-the-ground survey of preselected survey locales within the study area, and {4) systematic testing of sites discovered to determine spatial limits, depth of deposits, stratigraphic placement of cultural materials, probable age and function of sites, etc. Cultural resources were located in 29 percent of the 126 survey locales examined over the past three years. A total of 73 sites were documented for these locales, representing approx1mately 44 percent of the sites known to date. The remaining 94 sites (56 percent) were located in proposed borrow sites, areas disturbed by geotechnical testing, along the proposed access routes and transmission corridors, and in other portions of the study area. As previously men- tioned, the research design was developed to provide feed- back data throughout the project so that new information could be used to modify, refine, and further deve 1 op the cultural resource investigation. A two-fold increase {25 percent in 1980 and 1981 to 53 percent) in the number of survey locales producing sites during the 1982 field season is directly attributable to the refinement of site loca- tional data made possible by the analysis of data collected during the previous field seasons. The effectiveness and efficiency of this program are also increased by the fact that areas considered to have no and/or very low archeological potential (steep canyon walls, gravel bars, and areas of standing water) were eliminated from survey. Therefore, survey efforts are placed in areas that have the potential of producing cultural resources while areas of little or no potential are not examined unless other activities such as seismic testing, boreholes, auger holes, hammer holes, test trenches, helicopter landing pads, airstrip, or other ground disturbing activities are scheduled for these areas. Although archeological potential may be considered low for these areas, examining these types of areas {when possible) acts as a check on the validity of the assessment of the potential of these types of areas. To date, no archeol ogica1 or historical sites have been found in any area indicated as having no or very low potential, based on testing associated with the abovementioned activi- ties, which includes over 100 testing areas and large tracts of wet, steep land selected as proposed borrow sources. E-4-22 - - .... - - - .... ,.. .. .- - - .... - 2.2-Methods-Archeology and History 2.2.6-Data Collection and Field Procedures (a) Reconnaissance Testing To insure consistent data collection in the field and pro- vide a systematic format for data retrieval, a Site Survey form was used for this project (Form 1, Appendix C in Dixon et al. 1982a). The form served as a basis for recording specific information on each site located during the reconnaissance level survey as well as a basis for systema~ tic testing. The form is organized into major categories including: site location, environment, site description and condition, photographic records, and additional information such as a site map and location of test pits. Subcategories within each of these headings provide specific data on these topics. Daily field notes we.re kept by each crew member. Each page was numbered in the upper right hand corner along with the date or dates included on that page. Each site was noted by bold or underlined numbers (i.e., TLM 027) at the beginning of the notes associated with that s1te. Field notebooks for survey recorded much of the same information found on the Site Survey forms, su.ch as site location, topography, vege- tation, soils, extent of site, and photographs taken. Field notebooks for systematic testing also recorded a detailed description of soils; drawings of stratification of soils; drawings of significant features or artifacts in situ; hori- zontal and vertical placement of artifacts and features excavated at the site; site maps; methods of excavation; and collection of nonarcheological samples (soil, pollen, radio- carbon). A space was left on each page for additional notes and corrections. Crew leaders kept a continuous log of all areas surveyed, noting both the 1 ocation of all test pits and natural exposures and the presence and absence of cultural material. Once an archeological site was located, additional shovel tests were excavated, when possible, to the north, south, east and west of the test pit which first documented the site. This testing was designed to assist in determin·ing extent of the site as well as to locate additional cultural materi a1. In an effort to keep site disturbance to a mini- mum, preliminary testing at each site was limited, and the number of tests made at each site varied with the nature of the specific site. All test pits were numbered, mapped, and backfilled. E-4-23 2.2 -Methods -Archeology and History The location of all excavated and surface-collected arti- facts was recorded. Specimens recovered during reconnais- sance level survey were bagged by arbitrary 5-cm (2-in) levels, unless natural stratification was encountered. Each bag contained the following information: location (i.e., Devil Canyon, Survey Locale 15), date, University of Alaska Site Number or AHRS number (i.e., UAS0-23 or TLM 123), name of excavator, test number (as recorded on site map, i • e., Test #1), depth, and specimen(s) in bag. Radiometric samples collected were double v.rapped in aluminum foil and placed in ziplock bags with the following data recorded on each: location, date, site number, collector 1 S name, test number, depth, specimen. All individual bags from each test were placed in a larger bag with site number, name, date and location on the outside. All test pit bqgs were placed in a site bag with the site number and date on the outside. All site bags were organized by survey locale. A site-specific and regional map was made for each site. Site maps included horizontal and vertical datum points, site grid, all test pits made, location of surface arti- facts, features (such as hearths, cabin remains, house pits), distance and direction to other sites or major land features, a scale, date, name of person drawing map, name of person recording data, and reference to pages in field note- books on vilich additional information was recorded. Re- gional maps showed the site in relation to a larger portion of the study area including nearby rivers, lakes, topo- graphic features, vegetation communities, and other sites in the immediate area. Photographs were taken of each site located. The first pic- ture at each site was an identification shot indicating site number, date, and crew. Other photographs recorded the environment around the site, features at the site, soil pro- files exposed in test pits, and artifacts or features in situ oefore removal by excavation. Each photo_graph was recorded by r.oll and frame and recorded on the survey form. Direction of view, if applicable, was noted for each photo- gra-ph taken~ along with ~ short statement of content and any other data pertinent to the ~hotograph. When practicable~ a metr-1c scale or other reference object was included. Photo- graphs are on fi 1 e at the University of Alaska Museum-. Detailed soil profiles were drawn of soil deposits expo-sed during excavation. These included a descriptiDn of color, gr>d in size, and consistency~ Measurements documenting depth and thickness for each unit were also recorded. Soil pro- files are on file at the University of Alaska Museum. E-4-24 - - - - - - .... .... - - - - - 2. 2 -Methods -Archeology and Hi story (b) A cat a 1 og of a 11 specimens collected in the fie 1 d during survey or excavation was prepared during Step 5, Curation. Pertinent data were recorded for each specimen, i ncl udi ng its museum accession and catalog number, description of specimen, excavation or collection unit, level or depth from which it was collected, date of collection, and collector or excavator. Site information collected and recorded during survey and testing was recorded on Alaska Heritage Resource Site Survey 1 ong forms, a sample of whi-ch is ~esented as Form 3 in Appendix C of Dixon et al. {1982a). These become ·a permanent public record of the state of Alaska. The reconnaissance level survey was directed toward on-the- ground evaluation of preselected survey locales that have been identified for the project area. Along with the evalu- ation, an. attempt was made 1n the field to identify areas that potentially may be eliminated from further surv-ey and the location of as many site locales as possible. Form 2 in Appendix C of Dixon et al. (1982a) was developed to aid this evaluation. Systematic Testing Prior to systematic testing, a mapping crew established hor- izontal and vertical site datums, t-opographically mapped each site, and superimposed a horizontal grid on each site. To facilitate recording data, the datum was located, when possible, so that the entire site area would fall north and east of the datum point. A 30-cm (12-in) spike was placed at the datum location with an aluminum tag containi-ng site information including the state Al:iRS number, the date and .. University of Alaska Museum." Two methods were us-ed to establish a site datum elevat~on. Where it was possib1e to tie the datum 1nt-o the .elevation of the Sus·itna Rl-ver, the datum elevation was determined by its elevation above tne Susitna at the closest point of the river to the site. -If this was not pract~cal because of the distance from or elevation above the ril/er, half the el-evatjon between the contour line abov-e and below the site was added to the lower contour elevation and this elevation used to establisn elevation. A Sokki sha BT 20 transit, 50-m (165-ft) tape and metric stadia rod were used to establish a baseline oriented to conform to local s4te topography in an effort to facilitate excavati en. The northern end of this base 1 i ne was estab- lished as "Grid North"; all subsequent horizontal measure- ments referenced to grid north. A survey notebook was kept by the mapping crew with a 11 mapping information which in- eluded magnetic declination, angles between grid north and true north, and tri angulation data necessary to relocate E-4-25 2. 2 -Methods -Archeology and Hi story datums in the event of disturbance. Wherever topographic considerations allowed, True North was used as Grid North; however, in most cases this was not pass i b le. Working from the baseline, the mapping crew used the transit and tape to establish a site grid, placing wooden stakes at 5-m or 10-m (16. 5-ft or 33-ft) intervals. An east-west pro- ject base 1 i ne was estab 1 i shed along a 1 i ne at right ang 1 es to the baseline at the datum location. At larger sites, additional east/west-placed lines at right angles to the baseline were established. All stakes wereplaced directly at intersecting points of the grid system with the exception of a stake to insure relocation of site datum which was offset 10 em (4 in) from the datum spike. Grid coordinates north and east of datum were \'A"itten on all wooden stakes and elevations in relation to datum recorded for the top of the stake and the ground elevation at the stake location. Additional elevation measurements off the grid were recorded using a stadia rod so that a topographic map with 50-cm or 1-m (1.6-ft or 3.3-ft) conto·ur intervals could be drawn. The mapping crew provided the systematic testing crew with a topographic map of the site vicinity, a grid layout diagram, and elevation of all stakes prior to testing of the site. Placement of test squares was determined by the crew 1 eader in charge in consultation with the project supervisor and principal investigator and was based on the results of pre- liminary reconnaissance testing, site topography, surface cultural and noncultural features, and additional shovel testing. Coordinates of test squares 1 ocated off the in i- tial grid system were determined by triangulation from the nearest two grid stakes. Individual test square elevations were established from the closest grid stake elevation by use of a string and line level. After completion of syste- matic testing, all reconnaissance level test pits, syste- matic test squares, and shovel test locations were recorded on the site map. After the site was mapped and gri dded, a three-person crew began systematic testing. Frequently, systematic testing was initiated adjacent to the test wilicn produced cultural material during reconnaissance level testing~ Subsequent 1-m by 1-m (3.3-ft by 3.3-ft) squares were laid out to assist in determining the spatial extent of the site and to collect information for evaluating and dating the site. Systematic testing was designed to efficiently collect enough data with which to address site significance. Weighted against this consideration was the question of how much testing is necessary to adequately address this E-4-26 - i - - - - - - - - - I""" - - - - ..... - 2.2 -Methods-Archeology and History problem. An attempt was made to excavate the minimum number of tests needed to address this problem. The average number of tests placed on a site was four. However, in a few cases, additional tests were necessary because of the low frequency or, in some cases, the lack of cultural material in the initial tests. Excavation of 1-m by 1-m (3.3-ft by 3.3-ft) squares was conducted by natural stratigraphic levels when possible. However, in a few cases soil stratigraphy was not conducive to this method, and excavation by arbitrary levels was employed. Careful attention was paid to the identification of tephras in relation to cultural remains because their relationship provided relative dating and intersite correla- tion. Test squares were excavated with trowels and all dirt was screened through 6-mm (1/4-in) screen unless the soil was too wet, in which case it was examined by hand. Arti- facts were measured from the south and east wa 11 s of each test and vertical measurements were made with string and line level tied to the square datum. When possible, tephra samples and organic material for C14 dating were call ected. C14 samples were wrapped in two layers of aluminum foil, placed in plastic bags, and oven dried at the University museum•s archeology lab as soon as possible. Soi 1 profi 1 es for test squares that produced cultural material were drawn. Soil colors were determined using a Munsell color chart.on dry samples. Composite soil j:l"Ofiles were also drawn summarizing soil stratigraphy at the site. Composite soil jrofiles are included with each individual systematic test report (Dixon et al. 1982a). All artifacts collected were cataloged and accessioned into the University of Alaska Museum. All test squares were backfi 11 ed upon completion of testing, and each site was restored as much as possible to the condition in v.tlich it was originally found. During systematic testing, soil profiles were drawn to scale for all four walls of 1-m (3.3-ft) test squares which pro- duced cultural material. These profiles are on file at the University of Alaska Museum. For the purpose of the 1982 report, however, only a single composite soil jrofile was included for each site, or site locus, systematically tested. The composite soil profile is schematic and does not necessarily represent any individual test square at the site. Its intent is to graphically represent the sequences of all soi 1/sediment units that occur at the site because individual tests often do not tontain the full range of soil units at a given site. E-4-27 2.3 -Methods -Geoarcheology 1980 No standard technique for drawing a composite soil profile was used because test pit placement and soi 1 deposition at each site varied considerably. The method most often uti- lized to abstract individual test square soil profiles into a composite site profile was to draw a diagram correlating profiles from all individual test squares. This was usually done by selecting the profi 1 e from each test square that revealed the greatest number of distinct soil units, which were drawn to scale with similar sections from profiles of all other test squares. Correlations of soil units between test squares were then matched and a composite site profile drawn by determining the average thickness of each soil unit which occurred at the site and drawing all soil units in their correct stratigraphic sequence. The thickness of soil units sometimes varies greatly even between adjacent squares, as does the occasional presence or absence of specific soil units. The composite soil profile is a generalized profile. Elevation above or below datum and provenience of artifacts from individual test squares cannot be directly correlated with the composite site pro- files. However, in a broad sense, associated soil units and contact between soil units are accurate for each site. Three distinct tephra have been identified in the study area. These units were given regional names for purposes of field identification and nomenclature. The names given the tephra in order of increasing age are as follows: Dev"il (1800-2300 B.P., A.D. 150-350 B.C.); Watana (2300- 3200 B.P., 350 B.C.-1250 B.C.); and Oshetna (greater than· 4700 B.P., 2750 B.C., and possibly as old as 5000-7000 B.P., 3050 B.C.-5050 B.C.). These ash falls have not yet been correlated to tephra from other regions known to date to the last 7000 years. Munsell color designatidns were used to describe tephra color. Whenever possible, color matching was done using dry samples. For a more detailed discussion of tephra, see Chapter 5 in Dixon et al. (1982a). The relationship of cultural components to the tephra are indicated in Chapter 7 of Dixon, et al. (1982a). 2.3 -Methods -Geoarcheology 1980 2.3.1 ~ Literature Review Prior to the 1980 field season, all published geologic reports were collected and reviewed for information relevant to the study. This literature survey was updated during 1981. Because specific glacial/climatic studies are not available for the E-4-28 - - -' - - - """ - - - - 2.3 -Methods -Geoarcheology 1980 immediate study area, literature for the adjacent regions was heavily relied on. The review concentrated on those areas for which radiocarbon dates were available from meaningful strati- graphic contexts. Because of the relatively high quality of climatic sequences from the Glacier Bay-Boundary Ranges region, southeast Alaska, and Brooks Range, these areas were also reviewed. No attempt was made to review the geologic literature for northern and southeast Alaska. 2.3.2 -Geoarcheologic Terrain Unit Mapping During May of 1980, a preliminary regional map of the Susitna Valley was prepared for a first-order interpretation of the geo- logic history and terrain units to be studied by the archeolo- gists. The map extended to at least 10 km (6 mi) and usually 15-20 km (9 -12 mi) from the Susitna River. Units, which were defined completely from air-photo interpretation, using 1:20,000 false color infrared U-2 flight lines, were subdivided on the basis of age and surface characteristics. This preliminary map, though not detailed in the immediate vicinity of the Susitna Canyon, was used in the archeologic research design. This map is on file at the University of Alaska Museum. 2.3.3 Field Study Field studies were carried out during June and August, and relied almost completely on helicopters for logistical support. Four major objectives of the field program were to ascertain ground truth and reinterpret the preliminary regional geoarcheologic map; to carry out a regional stratigraphic reconnaissance; to help interpret and describe significant archeologic sites; and to examine some of the more critical glacial-geomorphologic features in the region near the proposed impoundment area. (a) Aerial Reconnaissance The first field objective was to get a regional overview of the Susitna Valley in order to become familiar with the dis- tribution and range in surface 1 and forms and deposits, and to examine the potential for stratigraphic work. In addi- tion, this overview was necessary to examine the mapping done from atrphotos in order to test "its reliability and accuracy. This reconnaissance was done in conjunction with project archeologists in order to provide collective agree- ment on the. basis for revised mapping •. This joint examina- tion allowed the geologist and archeologists to define the map units that best accommodate both needs. E-4-29 2.3 -Methods -Geoarcheology 1980 (b) Stratigraphic Reconnaissance A second objective was to determine the number and quality of river bluff exposures that might provide stratigraphic information needed to interpret and date the major valley- forming geologic events. After a 11 fly-by 11 look at all river bluffs along the Susitna and all of the tributaries from the Chulitna River to the Tyone River, 25 exposures were selected for further study. Those not selected for further study were observed from the helicopters, and only briefly described. At each selected exposure, the entire bluff face was examined and a selected stratigraphic section measured. The sediments were divided into significant natural units, and the character and height of each unit was described above 11 recent high water 11 which was used as an altitude datum. Study of each exposure resulted in a detailed sketch and description of units, including the character of the surface above the exposure. In addition to measuring and describing all units, as many as possible were sampled for various reasons. Organic matter in key units was sampled whenever possible for radiocarbon dating. Organic horizons with well-preserved plant macrofossils were sampled for pa 1 eobotani ca 1 analysis. Some sediment units were sampled to obtain a representative sample of the unit lithology. In addition, many exposures contained one or more volcanic ash layers, which were also sampled (see Chapter 5 in Dixon et a 1. 1982a) • (c) Archeologic Sites During the 1980, 1981 and 1982 field seasons, the geological examination of archeologic sites was conducted, particularly those that were well stratified. Geologic descriptions of the sediment units and regi anal rel ati onshi ps at the sites greatly aided in site interpretation. (d) Geomorphic Reconnaissance ·A final field objective was to examine the landforms within the study area. Major glacial moraines, deltas, lake plains, eskers, and terraces were described and their heights and gradients measured. Most examination was done from the air, but many glacial-geologic features were studied on the ground. Also the geomorphic character of each of the geoarcheologic terrain units within the impound- ment area were briefly described from the air. E-4-30 - - - - - - - - - - 2.3 -Methods-Geoarcheology 1980 {e) Revised Geoarcheologic Terrain Unit Mapping {f) A week was spent refining the earlier preliminary map to make it more detailed and, therefore, more useful for archeological purposes. Twenty-six units wer.e defined and mapped directly on the U-2 images. These photographs are on file at the University of Alaska Museum. During map rev i- sion, much more attention was focused on surface relief and drainage characteristics of each unit than ori its estimated age. This mapping was done during the field season because the archeologists needed to have the best possible data available for the remainder of the season. Data Organization and Compilation Field data was organized, clarified and tabulated where possible. All short written descriptions were transferred to the 1:63,360 scale base maps. All stratigraphic diagrams and descriptions were redraw~ and edited. All samples were double-checked and curated, and a detailed sample list was prepared. All photographs were 1 abel ed and keyed to geo- logic ·steps and exposures. 2.3~4 -Investigation and Dating of Samples Nine organic samples were submitted for radiocarbon dating, and all have pr~vided good dates for key stratigraphic horizons. One faunal sample of a fossil mammoth was examined and identified by University of Alaska scientists. One paleobotanical sample has been tentatively identified by the herbari urn staff at the Uni ver- sity of Alaska 1'1lseum. One tephra sample has been submitted to Pullman, Washington, for bulk-and trace-element analysis, the results of which are not available at this time. 2.3.5-Methods-Geoarcheology 1981 {a) Geoarchedlogic Terrain Unit Mapping {b) Considerable effort was expended to revise the geoarcheo- logical terrain unit mapping during the 1981 field season. This mapping proved very useful for the selection of archeo- logical survey locales. G 1 aci a 1-Strat i .graphic Napping . Portions of the 1981 field season were devoted to continuing investigations of the distribution .and extent of past gla- ciers during late Wisconsin time. To assess this, it was necessary to map older glacial sequences as well. This mapping effort consisted of reconnaissance mapping of gl a- cial limits by helicopter, with numerous ground trips during which the surficial character of the glacial landforms was assessed. E-4-31 2.4 -Known Sites in Project Area (c) Archeological Stratigraphy The major effort of the 1981 field seas-on was devoted to interpreting the geological context of the cultural horizons at numerous archeological sites. All important sites were visited and interpreted in the field by the geo- logist. Sites that were not visited in the field were interpreted by the geologist on the basis of field drawings and descriptions made by the archeologists. As part of the archeological stratigraphy effort, a major portion of the geologists~ time was spent informing and educating the excavators about the 1 and forms, soils and volcanic ash 1 ayers found throughout the study area. The standardization of techniques and descriptions which re- sulted from numerous instruct i anal situations greatly improved the quality of the resulting data collected by all investigators during the field season. Following the field season, a final interpretation of the arc heal og i cal stratigraphy was made by synthesizing over 250 stratigraphic drawings made during the field season. This interpretation was supported by some 1 aboratory in vest i ga- t ions.. Samples for radiocarbon dating were se1ected, pre- pared and sent by the geologist on the basis of their stra- tigraphic importance, the results and interpretation of which are discussed in Chapter 5 of Dixon et al. (1982a). 2.4 -Known Archeological and Historic Sites in the Project Ar~a 2.4.1 -Introduction In addition to arche~logical investigations, geoarcheological studies were conducted in order to provide data which would enhance the 1 ocat ion and eva 1 uati on of cultural resources withi-n the study area. Prior to and during field studies, geuarcheolo- gi cal studies were cenducted to provi-de data that wnul d define the ages of surficial -deposits and provide 1 imiting dates for human occupation of the area. The results -of the cul tura1 resources studies are included in this section. Federal law mandates that site locational data not be released if it might create a risk of harm to the site. Therefore, s1te location map-s are not provided with this application but can be found in Appendix E of Dixon et al. (1982a) and the appendix of Dixon et al. (1982-b). E-4-32 - - - - - - ..... 2.4 -Known Sites tn Project Area Surface reconnaissance, subsurface testing, and review of records at the State Office of History and Archeology documented 6 his- toric and 161 prehistoric sites during the three field seasons of the project. One hundred and one historic period cabins were located and recorded by the land use analysis team (Subtask 7.07) under the direction of Dr. Alan Jubenville and are described in that report. Of the 101 historic cabins recorded by the land use study only 12 fell within the archeological study area. Of this number only four were older than the 1950s, which was the arbi- trary cutoff date for cultural resource studies. These sites were recorded by the cultural resource study team. Cut ural resources were 1 ocated in 36 (29 percent) of the 126 survey locales examined. A total of 73 sites were documented for these locales. The remaining 94 sites were located tn j:roposed borrow areas, areas disturbed by geotechnical testing along proposed access routes and transmission corridors, and tn other portions of the study area. Sites reported to the archeology study team by other j:roject personnel were subsequently documen- ted even if they were outside the study area for cultural resources. Four sites were originally recorded during a 1978 survey {TLI\1 015, 016, 017, 018) and one during a survey in 1970 {TLM 007); an additional 9 sites (HEA 026, HEA 030, HEA 035, HEA 03 7, HEA 038, HEA 080, HEA 083, HEA 119, HEA 13 7) were reported in the files of the State Office of History and Archeology. The fact that no sites were located during reconnaissance testing in 90 (71 percent) of the survey locales could be due to the testing 1 eve 1 employed, sampling bias, or the fact that site locational data used for selecting survey locales need to be fur- ther refined to reflect specific topographic settings in the middle Susitna River region~ Although it is possible that no sites exist within the limits of these selected survey locales, the fact that testing in 29 percent of the areas did 1 ocate cultural resources suggests otherwise. This is also supplemented by the fact that in 1981 archeological sites were found in three survey locales that were reconnaissance tested in 1980 with negative results. This suggests that increased testing levels will increase the number of sites located and documented. A preliminary evaluation ~f survey locales tested to date suggests that further subsurface testing may be warranted in some of these locales. Analysis is underway that will identify which locales would benefit from continued test·ing. This analysis will be completed prior to the 1983 field season so that this testing can be incorporated into the 1983 and 1984 field seasons. E-4-33 2.4 -Known Sites in Project kea Survey locales examined were selected based on the application of archeologic, ethnographic, historic, and geologic data compiled and refined jrior to and during the 1980, 1981, and 1982 field seasons. Maps depicting these locales are presented in Appendix E of Dixon et al. (1982a) and in the appendix of Dixon et al. (1982b). Specific criteria used for defining and selecting survey locales are discussed in Section 2.2.5. The sites documented in 1980, 1981 and 1982, as well as the sites located in 1971 and 1978 are discussed below. Each. site summary contains information concerning the setting and the results of reconnaissance testing and systematic testing. Detailed site reports can be found in Dixon et al. (1982a, 1982b). Maps showing the location of each site on USGS 1:63,360 scale maps are located in appendices of Dixon et al. (1982a, 1982b). Artifacts specifically discussed in the text are presented in Artifact Photos at the end of Chapter 3 in Dixon et al. (1982a) and in Dixon et al. (1982b). To avoid confusion, the meaning of certain terms as used in this application are discussed below: Site: Locus: Scatter: Shovel test: Any location with detectable physical evidence of jrehi storic and early historic human activity in the Susitna Valley within the confines of a defined topographic setting. Physical evidence deposited as a result of human activity includes but is not limited to tools, lithic debitage, animal bones, and features (including hearths, house pits, cairns, etc.). One of two or more material within a discrete from other material. concentrations of cultural site which is spatially concentrations of cultural A concentration or cluster of cultural material at a site or within a locus. A subsurface testing method using a shovel. For this project, ca. 30-cm by 30-cm (12-in by 12-in) shovel tests were excavated in each sur- vey locale in 5-cm (2-in) arbitrary levels and were excavated to at least 50 em (1.6 ft) where possible. E-4-34 - - .ptmA. - ..... - 2.4 -Known Sites in Project forea Test pit: A systematic excavation conducted with a trowel. Tests varied in size depending on the terrain but were usually less than 50 em by 50 em (1.6 ft by 1.6ft). In some cases, shovel tests were turned into test pits when cultural material was encountered. 1m test square: The standard excavation unit used during systematic testing. cmbs: asl : I. L. : Survey locale: Flake: Retouch: Component: Level : Horizon: Tephra: Centimeters below the surface. ~Above sea 1 evel. Impoundment limit. Used on survey locale maps. An area selected for reconnaissance level test- ing based on the application of archeologic, ethnologic, historic, and geologic data. A fragment of rock culturally removed from a parent rock by percussion or pressure flaking • The remains of lithic tool manufacturing or repair, usually characterized by a bulb of J}ercussion, a striking platform, and radiating ripples or force lines from the point of impact or rressure on the ventral surface. The occurrence of small flake scars along the edge of a lithic artifact. The manifestation of a given archeological phase at a site (Willey and Phillips 1958). Sites may be single component (representing only one cultural period) or multicomponent (representing two or more distinct cultural periods). The vertical subdivision of an excavation unit, generally a naturally deposited stratigraphic unit. In soil science, a natural developmental zone in a so i 1 profile. Solid material ejected during the eruption of a volcano and transported through the air. Three tephras have been identified in the middle Sus itna River va l1 ey. E-4-35 2.4-Known Sites in Project Area -Watana Sites in this section are listed by area: Watana Dam and impoundment; De vi 1 Canyon Dam and impoundment; proposed borrow sites; and areas disturbed by geotechnical testing, access route and associated borrow areas, transmission lines, and other areas outside the above categories but within the study area. 2.4.2 -Watana Dam and Impoundment (a) Archeological Sites (i) TLM 017 The site is located east of Tsusena Creek, north of the Susitna River. It is situated on a level bench near the top of a northwest slope which descends to Tsusena Creek. A 180° field of view from the southwest to the northwest encompasses the Tsusena Creek drainage although the creek itself is not visible. The site was identified during a brief 1978 survey. No surface artifacts were observed at the site, but a single subsurface test produced 372 basalt flakes, a large portion of which were cortex flakes. No diagnostic artifacts were recovered from this test, and eight additional shovel tests excavated in 1980 failed to produce additional subsurface cultural material. The 1978 test was reopened in 1980, and an additional 285 basalt flakes were recovered duri11g wall preparation for profiling. Cultural material is associated with the contact between the Watana and Oshetna tephra. (ii) TLM018 The site is located east of Tsusena Creek north of the Susitna River near the 1978 Corps of Engineers Camp. Situated on an east-west trending ridge, the site is located on a low knoll which forms one of the highest points of relief along this ridge and affords an expansive view of a broad kettle and kame plain extending northeast of the site. Artifacts have been exposed in 1 arge b 1 owouts which occur on the northern slope of this knoll. The site was identified in 1978, and 29 flakes and a bifacially flaked triangular basalt projectile point were surface call ected. · An add it i anal 138 flakes were recovered from the single test at the site. In 1980, the site was revisited and three additional E-4-36 - i i I -, I ~! - """ r r 2.4 -Known Sites in Project Area -Watana artifacts were surface collected. These included a basa 1t bi face, a chert flake with a b 1 a de facet, and a chert burin spa11. Two distinct lithologies were noted among surface artifacts at the site; basalt flakes concentrated on the southwest side of the knoll and chert flakes on the northwest side. This site was systematically tested in 1981 and all surface artifacts were collected in l-111 (3.3-ft) square units. Three 1-m by 1-m (3.3-ft by 3.3-ft) test squares were excavated at the site. A total of 1414 surface artifacts and 570 subsurface artifacts were collected. The 1981 surface collection, with the exception of a boulder chip scraper and a chert flake core, is composed totally of flakes, consisting of 1078 chert flakes, 332 basalt flakes, 2 rhyolite flakes and 2 flakes of unidentified material. Subsurface material found in two of the three test squares consisted of 2 basalt biface fragments, an obsidian core fragment, 3 obsidian flakes, 1 chert, blade-like flake, 62 chert flakes and 503 basalt flakes. No diagnostic artifacts were recovered from the test squares. Cryoturbat ion and poor str at 1- graphy do not allow the clear division of artifacts into separate components, although it appears that an upper component, above the Devil tephra, and a lower component, below the Devil tephra, may be present. (iii) TLM 026 The site is located north of the mouth of Goose Creek on the north side of the Susitna River. The site is situated at the southwestern point of a peninsula around which the Susitna River forms a tight bend. The view both downriver and upriver from the site is excellent for a distance of 3 to 4 km (2 to 2. 5 mi). The site consists of both surface and subsurface cultural material. Surface artifacts exposed at the top of an eroded bank overlooking the Susitna River consisted of a chert endscraper, 2 chert flakes and a rhyolite flake. Three test pits and seven shovel tests excavated during initial reconnaissance testing in 1980 did not reveal subsurface cultural material. Continued reconnaissance testing in 1981 involved systematic shovel testing along. east-west transects. E-4-37 2.4 -Known Sites in Project Area -Watana Eighty-five additional shovel tests were dug, only one of which revealed cultural material consisting of 134 burned bone fragments. This shovel test was not expanded into a test pit and consequently the strati- graphic position of the faunal material is uncer- tain, although it appeared to be associated with the A horizon directly below the organic mat. ( iv} TLM 033 The site is located downriver from the mouth of Kosina Creek on the north side of the Susitna River near the outlet of a small lake. Situated on the point of a flat terrace, the site overlooks the lake outlet stream. The view from the site is best to the west and northwest over 1 ook i ng a 1 ower terrace and the stream drainage. The stream itself and its confluence with the Susitna River is not visible. There is no surface indication of a site at this location. A total of three test pits and one shovel test were dug during reconnaissance level testing. The only artifact recovered was a brown chert bi face fragment of uncertain provienence stratigraphically since it was found during shove testing. Systematic testing at the site included the excavation of six 1-m by 1-m (3.3-ft by 3.3-ft) test squares and five shovel tests. No additional cultural material was recovered. Extensive soil movement caused by soli- fluction was noted during systematic testing. ( v) TLN 039 The site is located on the western margin of a lake east of the mouth of Watana Creek on the north side of the Susitna River. It is situated at the highest elevation of a knoll at the southwestern end of the 1 ake and is the highest point on the peri meter of the lake. The view from the knoll is panoramic, encompassing the entire lake margin. No cultural material was observed on the surface. Reconnaissance 1 evel testing involved the excavation of three test pits, only one of which revealed sub- surface cultural material. A burin spall and 14 quartzite flakes were recovered from this test. Sub- sequent systematic testing consisted of three 1-m by 1-m (3. 3-ft by 3. 3-ft) test squares all of which produced cultural material. One obsidian and two E-4-38 - - - -- - ""'1 I - - - -I r .... r 2.4 -Known Sites in Project Area -Watana black chert microblade fragments, along with a tuffaceous flake core fragment and 45 waste flakes were recovered during systematic testing. Litholo- gies present include basalt, quartzite, chert, tuff and rhyolite. A single fire-cracked rock was re- covered. Charcoal was present in association with the cultural material. The site appears to be mu1ti- component with a component above the Devi 1 tephra and another component at the contact between the Watana and Oshetna tephra. (vi) TL~1 040 The site is located downriver. from the mouth of Kosi na Creek on the southern margin of the Susitna River. It is situated on an old river terrace approximately 30 m (100 ft) from the river marg1n. The view is obstructed in all directions by vegeta- tion, although the river is visible through the trees. There is no surface indication of a site at this location. A shovel test produced a jasper blade-like flake with retouch along two margins and a tuffacious flake. This shove 1 test was enlarged into a test pit, and an additional test pit was also excavated. No additional artifacts were recovered during reconnaissance testing, although charcoal was noted in one of the test pits. Systematic testing of this site included the excava- tion of five 1-m by 1-m (3.3-ft by 3.3-ft) test squares and 10 shovel tests. Lithic material of obsidian, basalt, chert and rhyolite was recovered from three of these five test squares. None of the shovel tests produced cultural material. A total of 182 1 it hi c artifacts were recovered during systematic testing. Artifacts recovered included 22 obsidian microbalde fragments, 4 obsidian blade-like flakes, one chert blade fragment, a possible chert graver, a chert scraper, a rhyolite boulder chip scraper, a chert flake core fragment, a chert core/chopper tool, 29 obsidian flakes, and 130 additional flakes of basalt and chert. Mote than one component appears to be present at this site; however, frost action has mixed the cultural material stratigraphically. Osidian and basalt lithic material including micro- blades are distributed through seven of the thirteen soil units recognized at the site; whereas the gray- banded chert appears to be associated within or below the Oshetna tephra. Cultural material was recovered from below, within, and at the ufper contact of the Oshetna tephra and above the Devi tephra. E-4-39 2.4 -Known Sites in Project Area -Watana (vii) TLM 042 This site comprises two loci (A, B) and is located or the north side of the Susitna River on a peninsula across from the mouth of Goose Creek. Both 1 oc i are situated on the southeastern crest of a high river terrace which forms the peninsula a round which the Susitna River makes a tight bend. Eroded bluffs form the northwest and southeast banks of this terrace; however, the top is relatively level and varies between 100m (330 ft) and 300m (1000 ft} in width. Both surface and subsurface cultural material was recovered from this locus. One basalt and one silt- stone bi face fragment were surface collected, a 1 ong with two siltstone, blade-like flakes and 25 silt- stone and basalt flakes. Approximately half of the surface 1 i th ic materia 1 observed exposed in the eroding bluff edge was collected during the reconnaissance 1 evel testing. Two test pits were excavated at the top of the slope, one of which produced five additional siltstone flakes and two siltstone, blade-like flake fragments just below the organic horizon. Three of five test squares and one of four shovel tests dug during systematic testing of this 1 ocus yielded cultural material. A total of 151 1 ithic artifacts and three bone fragments were collected from both surface and subsurface areas of the locus. Soil stratigraphy was dominated by solifluction fea- tures, and the bulk of the artifacts was collected from the eroding bluff face. Systematic testing yielded three retouched siltstone flakes and one possible s-iltstone graver in addition to 130 silt- stone, 15 basalt and 2 rhyolite flakes. Lithic and faunal material, both in the test squares and in the surface flakes scatters, was uncovered in the upper organic-rich layers or an underlying yellow-brown oxidized zone. No diagnostic artifacts were found and the recovered faunal remains were too fragmentary for identification. Locus B also consists of both surface and subsurface cultural material. Surface artifacts collected during the reconnaissance testing of the site in- cluded a side-notched basalt point base, a retouched chert flake, a basalt flake core fragment, and a chert flake. Of two test pits excavated at the edge of the eroding b 1 uff face, one produced a basalt end scraper fragment. E-4-40 - - -I - - - - - - ·- - - - - 2.4 -Known Sites in Project Area -Watana Systematic testing at Locus B consisted of excavating six 1-m (3.3-ft) test squares and one test pit. Five of the six test squares yielded cultural material consisting of 109 flakes, 1 point base, 4 fire- cracked rocks, and 5 unidentified bone fragments. Cultural material was recovered from the organic horizon and above the Watana tephra. A radiocarbon determination on charcoal from above the Watana tephra resulted in a modern date (DIC-2282). (viii) TLM 043 ( i X) The site is located downriver from the mouth of Watana Creek on the north side of the Susitna River. It is situated west of a tributary creek that joins the Susitna River from the north. Located approxi- mately 400 m (1320 ft) north of the river margin, the site sits on a river terrace in a relatively flat, open area. The view is restricted to approximately 30m (100 ft) in all directions by trees which limit visibility to the immediate clearing in which the site is located. No cultural material was observed on the surface. Reconnaissance level testing consisted of three test pits, two of which revea 1 ed subsurface fauna 1 material. A dense concentration of bone fragments directly below the organic horizon yielded 48 long bone fragments, 1 rib fragment, 3 phalanges identi- fied as caribou (Rangifer tarandus), and approximate- ly 380 very small bone fragments too small to identi- fy. No 1 ithic artifacts were recovered during reconnaissance testing. Systematic testing included the excavation of six 1-m by 1-m (3. 3-ft by 3. 3-ft) test squares and 11 shovel tests. Cultural material was recovered from the upper two organic soil units above the Devil tephra and consisted of 17 chert flakes, 36 fire-cracked rocks, and burned and unburned bone including 32 large fragments and a large quantity of very small fragments. All cultural material appears to be from a single occupation of the site. None of the shovel tests produced cultural material and no diagnostic artifacts were recovered. TLM 048 The site is located at the northern end of a lake east of Watana Creek and north of the Sus i tna River. E-4-41.!. 2.4 -Known Sites in Project Area -Watana Situated at the top of a 20-m-high (66-ft-high) rounded knoll, the site overlooks the lake outlet stream. The view encompasses the out 1 et stream, the entire northern margin of the lake, and a low marshy area to the northeast where the 1 ake out 1 et stream joins a small, slow-moving creek. No cultural materia 1 was observed on the surface at the site location. Three shovel tests and two test pit~ were dug during reconnaissance testing with only one of the test pits producing cultural material. A gray chert bi face fragment was found in one of the initial shovel tests associated with the lower tephra. This shovel test was expanded to a test pit, but no additional cultural material was recovered. Systematic testing included the excavation of five 1-m by 1-m ( 3. 3-ft by 3. 3-ft) test squares, four of which contained cultural material. Two components were recognized during systematic testing. The one component above the Devil tephra was represented primarily by a hearth feature containing over 1000 bone fragments and more than 300 fire-cracked rocks. Nine flakes of chert, basa 1t, and quartzite, showing evidence of heat spa 11 i ng, and a flake core were associated with this hearth. The second component associated with the Oshetna tephra was represented by a single microblade fragment of tuffaceous rock and 12 flakes of chert, rhyolite, and tuffaceous rock. The second component is definitely associated with the Oshetna tephra, but because of cryoturbation it is not clear whether it is associated with the upper or lower contact of this tephra. (x) TLM 050 The site is located upriver from the mouth of Watana Creek near the mouth of an unnamed creek which joins the Susi tna River from the northeast. The site is situated on a small alluvial bench on the east bank of the creek approximately 40 m (132 ft) upstream from the creek mouth. The view is limited to the immediate vicinity of the site by dense vegetation, although the Susitna River is visible through the trees. No cultural material was observed on the surface at this site. Only one of three test pits excavated during reconnai·ssance level testing revealed cultural E-4-42 - - - -i -I -I - P""' . i ! - .. 2.4 -Known Sites in Project Area -Watana (xi) material. A concentration of charcoal associated with bur ned bone and 34 thermally fractured rocks were found between 14 and 30 em (6 and 12 in) bel ow the surface between the organic mat and a ye 11 ow sand. Over 200 burned bone fragments were recovered including three phalanges and two metatarsal frag- ments identified as caribou. One tibia fragment identified as possible caribou was also recovered. One of the unidentified bone fragments recovered exhibits a distinct butchering mark. No lithic material other than fire-cracked rock was recovered during reconnaissance testing. A radiocarbon deter- mination of 280 + llO years: A.D. 1670 (DIC-1905) was obtained on a-charcoal sample. Systematic testing of this site included the ex- cavation of six 1-m by 1-m (3.3-ft by 3.3-ft) test squares and five shovel tests. All five test squares produced cultural material with faunal material, thermally fractured rock and lithic material re- covered from two levels of the site. Nineteen flakes and 105 fire-cracked rocks were recovered. Cultural material was associated with a dark brown silt and a very dark brown silt. These two units are separated by a dark grayish brown poorly sorted sand. No diagnostic lithic artifacts were recovered. TLM 058 The site is 1 ocated on a terrace . north of the Susitna River, downriver from the mouth of Watana Creek, and 100 m (330ft) east of an unnamed creek. No surface artifacts were observed. A shovel test subsequently widened into Test Pit 1 revealed a black chert flake, two brown chert flakes (one with bi fa- cial end retouch), and a white chalcedony flake. The 1 ithic material is associated with the contact of the humic zone and the Oevil tephra. Six additional shovel tests and an additional test pit failed to reveal further cultural material at the site. (xii) TLM 059 The site is 1 ocated east of an unnamed creek between the Watana and Deadman Creek drainages, north of the Susitna River. The site is situated on a low, rounded knoll which is part of a series of kame ridges that line the eastern boundary of the creek drainage to the west. E-4-43 I 2.4-Known Sites in Project Area-Watana The site, discovered during reconnaissance_ testing and later systematically tested, consists of a rec- tangular depression at the top of the low, rounded knoll. The dimensions of this depression are 2 by 1.8 m (6.6 by 6 ft) across and 35 em (14 in) deep. Around the depression is a diffuse berm which is slightly higher than the surface of the knoll top. Test Pit 1 was placed along the southern interior edge of the depression; and decayed logs, charcoal, burned and unburned bone fragments, and some possible fire-cracked rock were observed. Test Pit 2, placed 7. 5 m (25 ft) to the northeast of the feature, was sterile, and Test Pit 3 placed 2.1 m (7ft) west of the feature, revealed one small burned bone fragment at the contact of the humic zone and the Devil tephra. Eleven additional shovel tests were dug around the base of the knoll, but all were sterile. Systematic testing of the site involved excavating three 1-m by 1-m (3.3-ft by 3.3-ft) test squares, as well as further testing in Test Pit 1. A radiocarbon date on charcoal collected from the charcoal and burned bone level produced a date of 440 + 70 years: A.D. 1510 (DIC-2253). The depression truncates all three tephra units as indicated by the testing of the berm during systematic testing. The cultural debris outside the depression is characterized by a gravelly sand unit above the Devil tephra which contains some burned bone fragments and a single chert flake. The identifiable faunal material within the feature has been identified as caribou. (xiii) TLM 060 The site is 1 ocated on the northern shoulder of the Sus itna River canyon west of the mouth of Watana Creek and west of a major unnamed tributary. It is situated on the highest end of a 100-m (330-ft) long ridge. The site consists of both surface and subsurface material. A black chert biface fragment was surface collected from an exposed soil slump, but no other surface materia 1 was observed. Eight shovel tests were placed along the ridge top, one of which re- vealed a subsurface artifact. This shovel test was expanded into a test pit but no additional artifacts were found. The subsurface artifact was a 1 i ght olive brown tuff flake with poss·ible retouch along one margin. The flake was found in association with the Devil tephra. Two additional test pits failed to reveal further cultural material. E-4-44 - - - ..... - - !'"'' r - - - 2.4 -Known Sites in Project Area -Watana (xiv) TLM 061 (xv) The site is located west of Watana Creek on the northern shoulder of the Sus itna River canyon. The site is situated at the top of a 20-m (66-ft) high kame kno 11 which is the highest point of 1 and for 300 m (1000 ft) in the vicinity of the site. To the east of the site is a clear water stream and to the west lies a !-hectare (2.5-acre) kettle lake. No cultural material was observed on the surface of the knoll, but a shovel test near the center revealed charcoal and burned bone during reconnaissance test- ing. The expanded test revealed a total of 300 burned mammal bone fragments, 15 pieces of fire- cracked rock, and a quantity of charcoal. The materia 1 was present in two d i st i net so i1 horizons and may represent a multicomponent site. A total of 9 shovel tests, one of which was expanded into a test pit, were excavated at the site. Seven of these produced cultural material including the test pit. One soil sample containing bone fragments, 15 fire- cracked rock fragments, 1 basalt flake, and 3 pieces of red ochre was collected during reconnaissance testing. Identified faunal material collected from Test 1 represented caribou. Cultural material was found above the Devil tephra. TLM 062 The site is located on the south margin of the Susitna River west of the mouth of Kosina Creek, on a relatively flat river terrace 50 m (165ft) above the level of the Susitna. The terrace point is the highest and most prominent landform in the immediate vicinity of the site. Eight shovel tests were dug at the site during recon- naissance testing, one of which was expanded into Test Pit 1 when a chert core was recovered. Test Pit 1 revealed two red jasper, end scraper fragments which articulated to form a complete tool. These artifacts were associ a ted with the Devil tephra and appear to be from the same stratigraphic context. E-4-45 2.4 -Known Sites in Project Area -Watana The site was chosen for systematic testing, and a tot a 1 of six 1-m by 1-m ( 3. 3-ft by 3. 3-ft) test squares were excavated. An additional 49 shovel tests were dug to delineate site boundaries. Two and possibly three archeological components are present at the site. Chert and basalt flakes and burned bone fragments were associ a ted with the Dev i 1 tephra, and basalt flakes and bur ned bone fragments were asso- ciated with the Oshetna tephra. A third component may be present in the Watana tephra, but the cultural material recovered from this tephra unit may repre- sent mixing as the result of cryoturbation. A total of 180 basalt flakes, 1 bas a 1t bi face, and 4 basalt retouched flakes were recovered during systematic testing. Twenty-five chert flakes and over 1600 burned bone fragments were also recovered. (xvi) TLM 063 The site is located southeast of the Susitna River and southeast of Watana Creek mouth. It is situated on top of a 20-m (66-ft) high, steep-sided, isolated kame knoll. The kame knoll is part of a low glacial outwash terrace. Numerous small streams and a !- hectare (2.5-acre) kettle lake are located within 300 m (1000 ft) of the site. No cultural material was observed on the surface of the knoll, and only one of 11 shovel tests revealed cultural material during reconnaissance testing. This test was expanded into a test pit, and about 700 small burned bone fragments and one jasper flake were call ected. (xvii) TLIVJ 064 The site is located on the south side of the Susitna River southeast of the mouth of Watana Creek. Two site loci (A, B) are located on two knolls about 90 m (300 ft) apart on a northeast-southwest axis. A small lake and a clear-water tributary are located within 500 m (1650 ft) of the site. The site contains both a surface 1 ithic scatter and subsurface lithic material. A total of 5 shovel tests and 2 test pits were excavated at the site. Artifacts collected from the surface of the site con- sisted of 12 basalt flakes and 1 quartz flake. Addi- tional basalt flakes were observed but not collected. Test Pit 2 revealed a brown rhyolite flake and a ba- sa 1 t project i1 e point base associ a ted with the con- tact between a black humic soil and the Devil tephra. E-4-46 - i .... - - - - - - - .... - - - - - - 2. 4 -Known Sites in Project flrea -Watana (xvi i i) TLM 065 The site consists of two loci (A, B) located on a broad terrace south of the confluence of Kosi na Creek and the Susitna River. The terrace is demarcated by a creek drainage to the east. The site was discovered during reconnaissance testing and .was later systematically tested. Locus A is characterized by a rectangular 30-cm (12-in) depres- sion 2.3 m by 2.7 m (7.6 ft by 8.9 ft} oriented north-south, a circular depression 1m (3.3 ft) in diameter, and an area 2m by 5 m (6.6 ft by 16.5 ft) of sedges, moss and grass comprising a discontinuity in the general site vegetation. None of the features were tested during reconnaissance testing, but a 40- by 40-cm (16-in by 16-in) test within 6 m (20ft) of the main feature. revea 1 ed bone and fire cracked rock 1 ocated beneath the vegeta 1 mat. Locus B consists of a single circular depression 43 em (17.2 in) india- meter and 20 em (8 in) deep which was tested during reconnaissance survey. Two unburned innominate frag- ments of caribou were collected. Systematic testing of the site included excavating four 1-m by 1-m (3.3-ft by 3.3-ft) test squares. One test bisects the circular depression at Locus A where six bone fragments, one piece of wood, one blue glass bead, three fire-cracked rock fragments, and a sheet of birch bark were recovered. Another test square was positioned to bisect an apparent wall of the rectangular feature. Heavily decayed wooden 1 ogs ran parallel to the embankment which may represent wall structures of a house depression. Eight glass beads and four fire-cracked rocks were call ected from this unit. Other test squares at the site revealed additional glass beads, flakes, bone fragments, and fire-cracked rocks. Cu 1 tural material was found above the Devil tephra. (xix) TLM 072 The site, a large circular depression, is located northwest of the mouth of Jay Creek. The site is situated at the southwestern end of an isolated, low, rounded ridge which parallels the general slope of the valley wall. E-4-47 2.4 -Known Sites in Project Area -Watana The circular depression is 90 em (3 ft) deep and measures 4.2 m by 4.5 m (13.9 ft by 14.9 ft) across. Seven shovel tests were excavated around the outside of the pit, only one of which produced cultural mate- rial: large pieces of burned wood and charcoal. An eighth shovel test was begun near the center of the depression and a complete unburned moose metacarpal was exposed in the vegetative mat at the bottom of the pit. This was left in place and the test was discont·inued so that that integrity of the feature would be intact until further testing could be carried out. The depression truncates the Devil tephra. (xx) TLM 073 The site is located east of the Os hetna River and south of the Susitna ·River on a northwest-southeast oriented river terrace. No surface artifacts were observed at the site, but two test pits and one shovel test revealed subsurface lithics during reconnaissance testing. Twelve basalt flakes, 2 brown chert flakes, 2 rhyolite flakes, 1 cryptocrystalline flake, and 1 flake of undetermined lithology were recovered from as many as 5 soil units. These are: the contact of the Oshetna tephra and the glacial drift; within the Oshetna tephra; at · the contact· of the Watana and Oshetna tephra; within the Watana tephra; and at the contact of the decomposed organic layer and the Devil tephra. (xxi) TLM 07 5 The site is located on the south side of the Susitna River southwest of the mouth of Jay Creek. It is situated on a knoll which is part of a ridge system on the north-facing slope of the river valley. The site comprises two areas of subsurface lithic artifacts; no surface indications were observed at the site during reconnaissance testing. Test Pit 1 produced a black chert flake and a possible black chert core tablet from the contact of the humic mat and the De vi 1 tephra. Test Pit 2 produced two pale brown rhyolite flakes from the Watana tephra. E-4-48 - - - - ..... - - - - -I - - - - ..... 2. 4 -Known Sites in Project Area -Watana. (xxii) TLM 077 The site is Jocated south of the confluence of Kosina Creek and the Susitna River. It is situated on the · southern end of an . esker which runs north-south across the present Susitna floodplain. The site is 1 ociited on the highest point of the esker, 5 m (16. 5 ft) above the floodplain. No surface artifacts were observed at the site during reconnaissance testing. Test Pit 1 produced one basalt flake below the Oshetna tephra at the contact with the glacial drift. Another flake was discovered in the backdirt of the initial shovel test. Five additional shovel tests were excavated but failed to produce further cultural material. (xxiii) TLM 102 (xxiv) The site is located on the western end of a ridge crest on the northern side of the Sus i tna River, downriver from the mouth of Kosina <:reek. No surface artifacts were observed at the site. A black chert waste flake was found in the backd irt of a shovel test which was then expanded to become Test Pit 1. Three additional waste flakes were located in Test Pit 1. One black chert waste flake was located just beneath the numic mat at the contact of the Uevn tephra unit. Twci additional flakes were recovered from the Watana tephra unit. fLM 104 The site is located northwest of the confluence of Watana -creek and the Sus itna River. The site is sit~o~ated on the soutn slope of an esker ridge which curves around the northern edge of a ~-hectare (5- acre) lake. Jhe site consists ef a rectangular depression (Fea- ture 1) of horizontal dimensions 1.4 m by 1.2 m (4.6 ft by 4 ft) and 65 em (26 in) deep. A diffuse berm is visible around tl1e perimeter of the depression. Test Pit 1 was placed 70 em (28 in) from the feature and revealed charcoal and partially burned wood in a sand .and graveHy matrix beneath the moss cover. Two rib fragments from a large mammal were recovered from the charcoal-wood-sand unit above the Devil tephra. Four additional shovel tests were placed withjn 20m (6.6 ft) of .Feature 1, but all were sterile • E-4-49 2. 4 -Known Sites in Project Area -Watana (xxv) TLM 115 The site is located on a flat bench which occurs on a sinuous finger ridge that descends to the north side of the Susitna canyon northwest of the Kosina Creek mouth. The sides of th.e bench slope steeply into a tributary ravine to the east and the Susitna canyon to the south. The site is at a point of high relief which overlooks adjacent irregular and deeply incised canyon slopes, the south side of the river valley, and the river bottom, despite some obstruction by present vegetation. No surface cultural material was observed at the site. One black basalt projectile point bi face was found in place in the sod plug of a shovel test in the Oshetna tephra near its lower contact with glacial drift. Five other shovel tests on the bench failed to produce further artifactual material. (XX vi ) TLM 119 The site is located on the north side of the Susitna canyon southeast of Watana Creek mouth on a finger ridge which is roughly perpendicular to the river. The east side of the ridge is defined by a deep ravine.. The site occurs at a relatively flat point of high relief on the ridge crest. Present vegetation obscures the field of view from the site. A diffuse surface lithic scatter was observed at the site on a deflated surface and on a nearby game trail. Three chert flakes were surface collected, and two basalt flakes were observed on a game trai 1 but not collected. One shovel test produced a single subsurface chert flake occurring in a silty-sandy matrix with finely divided organics immediately bel ow the vegetation mat and above a discontinuous 1 ayer of pure charcoal overlying the Devil tephra. Two test pits, one superimposed on the positive shovel test, were excavated but no additional artifactual material was found. (xxvii) TLM 126 The site is 1 ocated north of th~ Sus itna River and northeast of the Watana Creek mouth of a ridge crest. To the south, east, and west, the sides of the ridge drop moderately steeply to marshy ground. To the E-4-50 - - - - - - - - .... 2.4 -Known Sites in Project Area -Watana north, the ridge merges into high ground with further ridge systems. With some obstruction due to present vegetation, the field of view from the site is pano- ramic, including boggy ground to the edge of the Wat~na Creek canyon to the west, kame terrain to the south and east, and rising terrain to the north. No surface indication of the site was observed. One white rhyolite and one 1 ight gray cryptocrystalline flake were found in a test pit, but their strati- graph; c provenience is uncertain. They appear to have come from below the Devil tephra and above the glacial drift. No additional art i factual material was found during the excavation of two shovel tests and the examination of soil exposures on the ridge. (xxviii) TLM 137 (b) The site is 1 ocated northeast of the Tsusena Creek mouth near the southeastern end of Seismic Line 82-A on the summit of a discrete kame which is the highest of the small set of kame ridges and knolls which abut the eastern slope of the Tsusena Creek drainage in the vicinity. Field of view from the site encom- passes neighboring ridges and knolls and gradually westward descending terrain to the north and north- west, as well as gradual north-facing slopes to the south. No surface indication of the site was observed. A brown chert flake was found in a shovel test, which was expanded into a test pit which produced a small basalt flake from a lens o·f coarse sand in a distur- bed stratigraphic context. Six other shovel tests on the kame produced no further artifactual material. Historic Sites (i) TLM 079 The site, a trapper's line cabin complex built by Elmer Simco in the mid-1930s is located on a low all uvi a1 plain east of the conf1 uence of Jay Creek ,.... and the Susitna River. - - E-4-51 2.4 -Known Sites in Project Area -Devil Canyon The site consists of a cabin, three outbuildings, a tree cache structure, a garbage dump, and associated historic debris. The cabin is a one room (13 by 9 feet) structure built of horizontally stacked spruce 1 ogs. A few supplies present inside the cabin are probab 1 y from the 1 ate 1950s -1960s and consist of cooking utensils and cans. The cabin is sparsely furnished but is in relatively good condition over- all. Outbuilding 1 is an outhouse; Outbuilding 2 is a storage shed but is call apsed and overgrown with vegetation. Outbuilding 3 is probably a dog kennel but has been destroyed by flooding. The tree cache is dilapidated but consists of two 3.3-m (11-ft) vertical beams and a 2.1-m (7-ft) long horizontal crossbeam. A deposit of historic debris was found northeast of the cabin including such items as plas- tic, a sleeping bag, and cans, as well as a sheet metal stove and oven. ( i i} TLM 080 The site is a historic trapper•s line cabin located on the south side of the Susitna River, east of the mouth of Watana Creek. The cabin is situated on a low, flat, poorly drained, alluvial terrace 40 m (132 ft) east of a small braided stream. The cabin has one room 2.1 m by 3 m (7 by 10) and a dirt floor. The structure is built of horizontal moss-chinked spruce logs. Interior furnishings are sparse~ A built-in bunk, a low bench, two shelves, a table made of wooden boxes, and a rusted stove and pipe make up the furnishings. No outbildings or historic period debris were observed outside the cabin. 2. 4. 3 -Devi 1 Canyon Dam and Impoundment (a) Archeological Sites (i) TLM 022 The site is situated east of the confluence of Tsusena Creek with the Susitna River. Located on an a11uvial terrace overlooking the creek, the site affords a view of both the north and south banks of the Susitna River for approximately 800 m (2640 ft) to the west. E-4-52 - - - ~, - - - - - ..... ..... i -I 2. 4 -Known Sites in Project ftcea -Devil Canyon ( i i ) There are no surface indications of a site at this location. Reconnaissance testing consisted of one test pit and four shovel tests which revealed charcoal and burned bone associated with a hearth and fire-cracked rock. Fifty-one burned bone and tooth fragments were collected. Two phalanx fragments were i dent ifi ed as caribou and one canine tooth fragment as possibly bear (Ursus spp. ). Radiocarbon deter- minations on charcoal produced modern dates (DIC 1879, DIC-2252). Systematic testing included the excavation of five 1-m by 1-m (3.3-ft by 3.3-ft) test squares and five additional shovel tests. Two components, both repre- sented by hearth features with associated faunal material, were identified. Most of the faunal mate- rial (487 pieces) was too fragmentary for identifi- cation; however, five phalanges and a portion of a mandible were identified as caribou. Sixty-two fragments of fire-cracked rock were recovered. No 1 it hi c artifacts were recovered. Deposition at the site is fluvial and tephras is not present in the stratigraphy. TLM 024 The site is located in proposed Borrow Site E and within the Devil impoundment, northwest of the mouth of Tsusena Creek. It is situated at the end of a ridge overlooking an alluvial terrace to the south. The view from the site is presently restricted by a dense stand of mixed spruce and birch. There is no surface indication of a site at this location; however, a shovel test produced a single basalt cortex f1 ake. Three add it i anal shovel tests and two test pits failed to reveal cultural material. The site is restricted topographically to a small bench below the point of the ridge. The provenience of the basalt flake was uncertain and it is not possible to relate this artifact to the tephra deposits which are present at the site. (iii) TLM 027 The site is located on the south shore of the Susitna River at the mouth of an unnamed stream which joins the Susitna River upriver from the mouth of Fog Creek. Because the site is situated on the summit of E-4-53 2.4 -Known Sites in Project Area -Devil Canyon a discrete knoll, the view from the site is excellent in all directions except to the south where it is obstructed by dense tree growth. Below the site there is evidence of terracing by the Susitna River. Testing at this site included both reconnaissance and systematic testing. No surface artifacts were obser- ved at the site. Three test pits excavated during reconnaissance testing produced 29 light green tuffa- cious flakes (7 with retouch), 1 tuffacious core, and 5 basalt flakes. Systematic testing, consisting of three 1-m by 1-m (3.3-ft by 3.3-ft) squares, produced 199 bas a 1t flakes, 5 bas a 1t flakes with cortex, 2 bas a 1 t bi face fragments, 1 retouched bas a 1 t flake, 1 basalt fragment, 196 tuffacious flakes, 7 tuffacius blades, 5 possible tuffacious blades, 5 tuffacious microbl ades, 3 tuffacious uniface fragments, 1 tuffa- cious core, 1 possible tuffacious core tablet, 40 chert flakes, 1 obsidian flake, 1 cobble, and 12 flakes of undetermined material type. The site con- tains several components with artifacts occurring bel ow the Oshetna tephra, at the contact between the Oshetna and Watana tephra, and above the Devil tephra. A radiocarbon determination of 3210 + 80years: 1260 B. C. (DIC 2286) was obtai ned on charcoal associated with artifacts at the contact between the Watana and Oshetna tephra deposits. (iv) TLM 029 The site is located upriver from the mouth of Fog Creek at the mouth of an unnamed stream which joins the Susitna River from the east. The site is situa- ted at the edge of an alluvial terrace on the south side of this stream and overlooks the mouth of the stream. Both the Susitna River and the stream are visible and easily accessible from the site. The view is blocked to the east by topography and somew- hat restricted in other directions by fairly dense black spruce. There is no surface indication of a site at this lo- cation.· Four shovel tests and one test pit were ex- cavated. Only the test pit revealed cultural mate- rial. A total of 224 flakes were recovered from this test pit and included 213 basalt flakes, 10 chert flakes and 1 chalcedony flake. No diagnostic arti- facts were recovered. The site appears to be a E-4-54 - - - - - - -! - - ,.... i - ..... 2.4 -Known Sites in Project Area -Devil Canyon single component with cultural material occurring at the contact between the Devil and Watana tephra. (.v) TLM 030 (vi) The site is 1 ocated on the south margin of Fog Creek upstream from the confluence of Fog Creek and the Susitna River. It is situated on the point of an alluvial terrace overlooking Fog Creek. The view is primarily northeast up Fog Creek and west down Fog Creek . to the mouth, encompassing a distance of approximately 1.5 km (0.9 mi). Visibility in other directions is 1 imited I:>Y topography and dense spruce forest. The site contains both surface and subsurface cultur- al material. A side-notched basalt point was surface call ected from a game trail that traverses the site. Other observed surface flakes exposed in the game trail were left in place. A total of five test pits were excavated, four of \'klich produced cultural mate- rial. Over 500 flakes and 6 tools are included in the assemblage from the site. Diagnostic artifacts associ a ted with charcoal concentrations include a side-notched basalt biface (backed knife), a side- notched point base of chert, 3 basalt blade-like flakes, a bas a 1t b 1 ade core fragment and a 1 arge argillite blade-like flake. Artifacts occur above the. Dev"il tephra, within the Watana tephra, at the contact between the Watana and Oshetna tephra and bel ow the Oshetna tephra. A radiocarbon determina- tion of 2310 + 220 years: 360 B. c. (DIC-1877) was obtained on charcoal associated with flakes in Test 1. Charcoal from Test 4, also associ a ted with flakes, produced a radiocarbon determination of 4730 _: 130 years: 2700 B.c. (DIC-1880). TLM 034 The site is located downriver from the mouth of Fog Creek on the west side of the Susitna River on the crest of a low ridge 30m (100 ft) northwest of a sma.ll pond. Scattered spruce and birch cover the slopes of the ridge restricting the view to the imme- diate vicinity of the site. There is no surface indication of a site at this lo- cation. Two test pits were excavated, one of which produced 2 rhyolite flakes, including the proximal end of a bl ade-1 ike flake. Both flakes were excava- ted from the same son unit, a brown matt 1 ed silt E-4-55 2-.4 -Known Sites in Project .Pre a -Borrow Sites directly under the humus. Additional shovel testing along the ridge away from the immediate vicinity of the site did not produce additional artifacts. (b) Historic Sites (i) TLM 023 The site, a collapsed trapper•s cabin, is located in proposed Borrow Site E, west of the mouth of Tsusena Creek, at the mouth of an unnamed creek \'hlich joins the Susitna River from the north. The cabin remains, not visible from the river, are located on a rela- tively flat alluvial terrace 50 m (165ft) east of the braided mouth of the creek. The fallen wall logs are partially decomposed and covered with soil and vegetation. The ground in the immediate vicinity -of the cabin is littered with historic cultural debris including the remains of a d.og sled. One glass jar was collected and all other historic artifacts were 1 eft in place. There is no evidence of outbuildings or a cache in the area. None of the four shovel tests excavated at the site produced cultural material. This cabin may be a line cabin used by Oscar Vogel in the 1930s and 1940s. 2.4.4 -Proposed Borrow Sites, AssDciated Facilities, and Areas Disturbed By Geotechnical Testing (a) Archeological Sites ( i} TLM 035 The site is 1 ocated upstream from the moYth of Tsusena Creek on the west side <>f the creek. It is situated .on the po·int of an older river terrace west of Tsusena Creek. Except for isolated openings in the tree cover, the view in all directions is severe- ly restri-cted by tbe existing vegetation -and obstruc- ted to the north by intervening topography. There is no surface indication of a site at this location. Two of three test pits excavated at this site ~oduced cultural material. Two waste flakes, one of rhyo 1 ite and one of bas a 1 t, were recovered from these test pits. The cultural material was associated with the contact between a dark brown silt and a gray silt {Devil tephra). No diagnostic arti- facts were recovered. E-4-56 - - - - - ·- r I 2.4 -Known Sites in Project Area -Borrow Sites ( i i ) ( i i i ) ( i v) TLM 068 The site is located on the southeastern slope of a low knoll on the crest of a discontinuous end moraine at the northern terminus of a 2-km {1.2-mi) wide, U-shaped valley east of Stephan Lake. The site consists of a surface lithic scatter exposed on the deflated slope of the moraine as well as iso- lated surface lithics located along the moraine crest to the north of the main lithic concentration. Arti- facts that were collected during reconnaissance testing include 1 black chert projectile point, 1 burinated gray chert flake, 1 gray chert biface, 1 black chert knife, 1 black chert flake, and 1 whitish-gray flake. TLM 070 The site is located east of Stephan Lake at the northern end of a 2-km (1.2-mi) wide glacial valley which is oriented north-south. It is situated on the deflated summit of a low knoll which is part of a lateral moraine system on the eastern side of the glacial valley. The site consists of a surface lithic scatter exposed at the summit of the knoll. A gray chert end scrap- er, two light gray rhyolite flakes, and a black chert flake were surface collected from the exposure during reconnaissance testing. Subsurface testing at the site failed to reveal any additional cultural mate- rial • TLM 082 The Black River moraine site consists of two loci (A, B) located on top of a moraine north and parallel to the Black River, upstream from its confluence with the Oshetna River. Surface reconnaissance of t.he moraine resulted in th-e collection of four out nf a total of the seven flak-es . observed. The material was found in two concentra- tions located 171m (Sti'S ft) apart a1on~ the axis-of the northeast-southwest ori~nted morai~e. A test pit was excavated at each of the two lac~, -but no subsur- face cultural materj al was observed. E-A-57 2. 4 -Known Sites in Project Area -Borrow Sites (v) HEA 177 The site consisting of three loci (A, B, C) is loca- ted on the east side of a northeast-southwest trend- ing lateral moraine east of where Butte Creek leaves Butte Lake. The top of the moraine offers an unob- structed panoramic view of the large lakeplain to the north, Butte Lake to the west, and upland hills to the south and southwest. Of the two test pits excavated at the site during reconnaissance testing, only Test Pit 1 produced cultural material, 1 chert flake. Surface cultural material was present at all three loci and collec- tively consisted of 1 dark gray chert flake, 25 gray chert flakes, 2 gray chert rocks, and 1 gray chert tabular core. (vi) HEA 178 The site is 1 ocated on a moraine running east-west along the north edge of a kettle lake located northeast of the north end of Butte Lake and consists of two loci (A, B). The view from both loci is panoramic. The one test pit at Locus A excavated at the site during reconnaissance testing did not produce any cultural material. All cultural material collected at the site was collected on the surface and collec- tively consisted of 4 rhyolite flakes, 23 chert flakes, and 1 basalt blade-like flake with retouch. (vii) HEA 179 The site is located north of the Denali Highway southeast of the intersection .of Canyon Creek and the highway. The view from the site is unobstructed to the northwest, north, and east overlooking the extensive southern drainage of the Alaska Range. The one .. test pit excavated at the site during reconnaissance testing did not produce any cultural material. The only artifact collected at the site was a bla~k chert flake recovered in a blowout. E..:.4-58 - - -· ..... I ,.. .. - - 2.4 -Known Sites in Project Area -Access Routes (b) Historic Sites None located to date. 2.4.5-Proposed Access Routes and Associated Borrow Sites (a) Archeological Sites ( i ) TLM 051 The site is located near the southeastern boundary of proposed Borrow Site F, east of Ts usena Creek. It is located in kettle and kame topography near the top of the highest knoll in an area of numerous knolls and ridges. Approximately 17 lakes and ponds are located within 1-km (0.6-mi) radius of the site. The site location provides a view of many of the kettle lakes in the area but the principal view is of a 7-hectare (17.5-acre) lake with a long finger extending to the northwest. No cultural material was observed on the surface. Only one of five reconnaissance level test pits exca- vated at the site produced cu1tural material. Five tuffacious rhyolite flakes, one of which exhibits retouch along one margin, were recovered from this test. (ii) TLM 098 The site is 1 ocated near the center of an elongated kno11 east of a major northern tributary of Deadman ,-Creek and north of the confluence of two streams. The site is a surface lithic ,scatter consisting of two patinated gray chert flakes, one of which was collected. Additional surface reconnaissance and the excavation of a test pit in the vicinity of the surface artifacts failed to reveal cultura1 material. (iii ) TLI'1 099 This two-loci (A, B) site is located on two adjacent knolls southwest of Deadman Lake and north of the confluence of Deadman Creek and one of its northern tributaries. E-4-59 2.4 -Known Sites in Project Area -Access Routes Fourteen black-flecked gray rhyolite flakes were 1 ocated on the surface of Locus A, three of which were collected. Two flakes were found at Locus B: a white patinated chert flake and a black basalt flake; both were collected. A test pit at each locus failed to produce subsurface cultural material. ( i v) TLM 101 The site is located on the southern edge of a large terrace, north of Devil Creek mouth on the east side of the creek. Th e s i t e c on s i s t s o f a s i n g 1 e banded c he rt f 1 a k e 1 ocated on the surface of a gravel exposure on the southern end of the terrace. Test Pit 1 revealed no subsurface cultural material, and further reconnais- sance survey of the exposures failed to reveal any more cultural material. (v) TLM 103 The site is located on the eastern edge of a terrace north of the mouth of Devil Creek, east of and 91 m (300 ft) above the creek. {vi) TLM 106 The site is 1 ocated on a prominent knoll 1 ocated centrally ~ong an esker overlooking the valley of a creek Which flows southeast into the Susitna River, east-southeast of Swimming Bear Lake. The site loca- tion affords a panoramic view of the creek valley to the east, south, and southwest. To the north, the uplands are clearly visible. One test pit was excavated during reconnaissance testing at the site. However, the only artifact recovered was a gray chert bi face fragment recovered on the surface of the 1 arge exposure on the south- eastern portion of the site. (vii) TLM107 The site is 1 ocated northwest on the confluence of Tsusena Creek and the Susitna River on a west-north- west trending esker. The view from the site is ex- tensive in all directions. E-4-60 - - - - - - - - ..... I"""' I 2.4 -Known Sites in Project Area -Access Routes (viii) ( i x) (x) The site consists of a surface 1 ithic scatter on a deflated surface. Recovered artifacts included 3 chert flakes, 5 rhyolite flakes, 1 basalt flake, 1 quartzite flake, 1 cobble spall (with possible retouch), 1 b if ace fragment, and 1 chert point frag- ment (midsection). Additional flakes were observed but were not collected. A test pit was excavated on the knoll top where the vegetation mat provided soil deposition. No subsurface material was located. TLM 108 The site is located on a prominent esker feature southeast of Swimming Bear Lake along an unnamed stream drainage. The site itself is 1 ocated on the flat, oval-shaped, exposed top of the high southern end of the esker overlooking the creek and associated rna rsh areas to the south and west. The gradually rolling and steep uplands to the north, east and west are visible from the site. One test pit was excavated at the site during reconnaissance testing, but no subsurface cultural material was found. A surface 1 i thi c scatter con- sisting of more than 100 flakes was noted at the site, but only 16 black basalt flakes and 2 gray chert flakes were collected. TLM 109 The site is located on a peninsula at the east end of Swimming Bear Lake north of the narrowest point in the lake. The view from the site includes all of the lake as wel 1 as the uplands to the north, south, east and west • One test pit and 13 shovel tests were excavated on the site during reconnaissance testing; however, a 11 cultural material recovered was collected on the surface and consisted of 2 gray chert flakes and 2 brown chert flakes. TLM 110 The site is 1 ocated on the top of an east-west oriented ridge northwest of Swimming Bear Lake and is about 30 m (100 ft) above the lake. The view from the site is panoramic with total visibility of the lake and surrounding terrain for approximately 2 km (1.2mi). E-4-61 2.4 -Known Sites in Project Area -Access Routes The one test pit excavated during reconnaissance testing, at the highest point of the ridge, produced 20 black basalt flakes, 4 black chert flakes, 2 gray chalcedony flakes, and 1 black basalt biface frag- ment. Surface material collected from the site included 11 black basalt flakes, 2 gray chert flakes, 1 gray rhyolite flake, 1 white rhyolite flake, and 1 chert biface fragment. Subsurface cultural material was fround on the contact between the Watana and Devil tephra, in the Devil tephra, and above the Devil tephra. {xi) TLM 111 The site is 1 ocated at the northwest end of Swimming Bear Lake. The site is approximately 10 m above the present 1 ake level on a spit protruding southeast into the lake. The view is extensive in all direc- tions. The site consists of a 1. 3-m by 1. 5-m by 45-cm ( 4. 4--ft by 5. O-ft by 1. 5-ft) rectangular de- pression. The one test pit excavated adjacent to the depression and the nine shovel tests excavated during reconnais- sance testing did not reveal any cultural material. (xii) TLM 112 The site, an irregular circle of stones, is located on a dicontinuous ridge overlooking Devil Creek and a major unnamed creek , northeast of the confluence of Devil Creek and the Susitna River, and north of Swimming Bear Lake. The view from the site is good and includes portions of the glacial valley to the north and south. However, a portion of the view to the south is obstructed by slightly higher terrain. The one test pit placed on-the site during reconnais- sance testing did not reveal any cultural material. The site consists of 30 stones forming an irregular circle Which ranged in size from cobbles to small boulders. The stones were partially embedded in the surrounding soil. (xiii) TLM 113 The site is located along a southeast facing bluff northwest of Devil Creek and northeast of High Lake. From the site, a panoramic view of the Devil Creek drainage and associ a ted 1 ower terraces to the east, southeast and south is available. E-4-62 - - - - - 2.4 -Known Sites in Project Area -Access Routes The one test pit and eleven shovel tests excavated on the site during reconnaissance testing did not reveal any cultural material. All artifacts were collected on the surface. Artifacts collected included 1 gray rhyolite projectile point, 1 white rhyolite stemmed point, 1 white rhyolite flake, and 1 black basalt flake with possible retouch. (xiv) TLM 114 The site is 1 ocated on the northeastern end of a north-south oriented terrace overlooking Devil Creek, due north of the confluence of De vi 1 Creek and the Susitna River. The .site commands a view of Devil ,_ Creek and its valley to the east, north, and north- west. - ..... !""" I ' - (xv) One test pit and three shovel tests were the site during reconnaissance testing. cultural material was recovered on the consisted of 5 white rhyolite flakes. TLM 153 excavated on However, all surface and The site is located in a borrow area along the pro- posed access route. The site was field-visited but has not been recorded • {xvi) TLM 155 (xv i i) The site is located along the propo~ed access route. It was field-visited but has not been recorded. HEA 181 The site is located northwest of Deadman Lake outlet at the outlet of a small 1 ake at the southern end of a glacial valley. The view from the site is most extensive to the north, encompassing a small nearby lake and the vall~y walls.· The one test pit excavated at the site during reconnaissance testing revealed one chert flake. Three shovel tests in the area did not reveal any additional material. Seven surface flakes were noted at the site, four of which .were collected: 3 basalt flakes and 1 chert flake. The one subsurface flake was recovered from the contact between the Devil and W.atana tephra. E-4-63 2.4 -Known Sites in Project Area -Transmission Corridors (xvi i i) HEA 182 The site is located northwest of Deadman lake on the western tip of a glacially formed knoll east of a wide, meandering, south-flowing creek. The site is located in a deflated area which extends along the western edge of the knoll. The knoll is one of the highest spots in the area affording an excellent panoramic view from the site. The one test pit placed on the site during reconnais- sance testing did not produce any cultural material. The artifacts collected from the site were recovered from the surface and consisted of 1 rhyolite side- notched point fragment, 2 basalt flakes, and 1 quartz biface fragment. (xix) HEA 211 The site is located along the proposed access route. The site was field-visited but has not been recorded. (b) Historic Sites None located to date. 2.4.6 -Transmission Corridors Preliminary aerial reconnaissance was conducted of the proposed transmission line routes from Fairbanks to Healy and Willow to Anchorage. The transmission corridor from the Watana Dam to the intertie was selected after the 1982 field season and remains to be surveyed. · (a) Archeologic~l Sites (i} HEA 026, l1EA 030, HEA 035, HEA U37, HEA 038, HEA 080, HEA 083 The above sites are reported in the files 1>f the Alaska Office of Hlstory and Ar.cheology. The sites were not visited by the personnel of the Susitna Archeological Proj~ct. (ii) HEA 119, HEA 137 These sites are reported in the fi 1 es of the A1 ask a Office of History and Archeology. The sites were not visited by the personnel of the Susitna Archeo1 ogical ~roject. E-4-64 ~I ..... ~' - - i""" I F"' I .... - -I ! · 2.4 -Known Sites in Project Area -Transmission Corridors ( i i i ) ( i v) HEA 120 The site is 1 ocated southeast of the confluence of Healy Creek with the Nenana River on the middle terrace of a series of at least three alluvial terraces. View from the site includes hilly uplands north of Healy Creek, the Nenana River valley to the west, and the southward continuation of the terrace system to its terminus against the north-facing slope of Healy Creek va 11 ey. During surface reconnaissance, a brown agate flake (Locus A) was found 40 m (132 ft) south of a gray chert retouched flake (Locus B). Locus B in contrast to Locus A is situated on the terrace margin over- 1 oak i ng Healy Creek. The terrace surface was 1 argely wind-scoured and no subsurface testing was conducted, but extensive additional surface reconnaissance failed to reveal further artifactual material • FAI 213 The site is 1 ocated northeast of the confluence of Birch Creek with the Nenana River. The ·site is situated on the top of a steep, south-facing bluff. At the base of the bluff is a 300-m (1000-ft) wide abandoned stream channel which is presently well vegetated. Visibility from the site is excellent to the northwest, where the channel begins to open out onto the Tanana Flats outwash plain. Mountainous uplands are visible to the south . and southeast. Visibility in other directions is restricted by brushy ground along the level bluff top. Both surface and subsurface cultural material were collected during reconnaissance testing. Twenty-nine flakes were recovered from a deflated area on the edge of the bluff. An additional flake was observed but not call ected about 50 m ( 165 ft) to the north- east. Three shovel tests were dug, o~e of which pro- duced a basalt flake. A test pit was excavated on the north edge of the surface exposure and an addi- tional gray chert flake was recovered. A massive charcoal lens with oxidized soil was observed within this test pit. E-4-65 2.4 -Known Sites in Project Areas -Other Areas (v) FAI 214 The site is located on the eastern end of a ridge in the hilly uplands forming the west Nenana valley wall southwest of the confluence of . Birch Creek and the Nenana River. The field of view from the site is obstructed to the west by the forested ridge, but is panoramic in other directions encompassing a section of the Tanana Flats, the constricted river valley east of the site, and the widening valley to the south. No surface indication of the site was noted. An obsidian. flake was found in a shovel test. A test pit superimposed. on the shovel test produced 4 basalt flakes from a red-brown silt unit. A second shovel test near the test pit J)"oduced 6 basalt flakes from the same stratigraphic unit. (b) Historic Sites None located to date. 2.4. 7 -Other Areas During the course of the cultural resource study a number of sites were located outside the areas already addressed in this application by project personnel (helicopter pilots, land use planning team, geologist, etc.). Although no subsurface distur- bance was scheduled for these areas, location and documentation of these sites were very important because little is known about the hi story and prehistory of the upper Susitna region and each site studied increases the data base. In addition, since these sites were located and could potentially be impacted by future recreation use, it is in the best interest of any cultural resource management plan to include them as part of this study. (a) Archeological Sites (i) TLM 007 The site is reported in the files of the Alaska Office of History and Archeology. The site was not field-vi.sited by the personnel of the Susitna Archeological Project. E-4-66 - - - - -I !!""!. I I - - , - - 8'!1, - - - - - - - - 2.4 -Known Sites in Project Area -Other Areas ( i i) TLM 015 . ( i i i ) The site is located east of Tsusena Creek north of the Susitna River in kettle and kame topography. Located at the top of a kame, the site offers an unrestricted view of numerous knolls, ridges and kettle lakes. This site was tested in 1978 and revisited in 1980 without additional testing. In 1978, a single test produced two waste flakes from different soil units suggesting that the site may be multicomponent. No tephra deposits were noted in descriptions of the soil units at the site. No surface artifacts were observed at the site. TLM 016 The site is located in an area of kettle and kame topography bordered to the west and east by Tsusena and Deadman Creeks and to the south by the Sus i tna River. It is situated at the highest elevation of a low, rounded kame knoll which fs the highest point of relief within a 600-m (2000-ft) radius. The view from the site is panoramic, but the pr·incipal view is to the west and north encompassing portions of four ·lakes. Both surface and subsurface cultural material were found at this site in 1978. The site was revisited in 1980, but no additional testing was done. During testing in 1978, six basalt and rhyolite flakes were recovered from a blowout, and five test pits were excavated at the site. Forty bone fragments and six waste flakes associated with charcoal were recovered from Test 1. A radiocarbon date of 3675 + 160 years; 1725 (B.C.) (GX-5630) was obtained -from this charcoal. Two other tests produced subsurface cultural material, including a unifacially retouched rhyolite pebble from Test 2 and six waste flakes from Test 5. E-4-67 2.4 -Known Sites in Project Area -Other Areas (i v) TLM 021 The site, consisting of three loci (A, B, C), is situated on an east-west trending ridge northwest of the confluence of Kosi na Creek and Gil bert Creek. The easternmost locus, Locus A, overlooks Kosina Creek which is not visible from the other loci. All three 1 oci are exposed in deflated areas along the crest of the ridge. Testing was concentrated at Locus A where four surface flake scatters were identified. Two scrapers (chert and rhyolite) and a retouched rhyolite flake were found spaci ally isolated from the flake scatters. A total of 570 rhyolite flakes, 9 chert flakes, and 1 basalt flake were surface collected from this locus, approximately half of the surface flakes observed. Four test pits were excavated, only one of which produced subsurface material consisting entirely of waste flakes. Locus B consists of six flake scatters from which all observed surface artifacts were collected. Diagnostic surface artifacts included the medial section of a projectile point, a scraper, and a biface, all of rhyolite. A single test pit excavated at this locus produced one chert flake associated with burned bone and charcoal. A radiocarbon determination of 1160 + 100: A. D. 790 (DIC-1878) was obtai ned from this charcoal. One hundred and fourteen rhyolite, 4 chert, and 2 basalt flakes were surface collected. Four of the rhyolite flakes showed retouch. Locus C consists of a single flake scatter containing 21 brown chert flakes, 6 basalt flakes, and 2 rhyolite flakes, all of which were collected. One test pit was dug which produced a single gray chert flake directly_be1ow the vegetative mat. (v) TLM 025 The site is located south of the Susitna River and southwest of the mouth of Watana Creek. It is situated at the highest elevation of a glacial crag and tail feature which exhibits sharp relief in relation to the surrounding terrain. The view from the site is excellent in all directons for a distance of over 10 km {6 mi). E-4-68 - - - - - - - - - - I"'"' I l - .... I 2. 4 -Known Sites in Project Jlrea -Other Areas (vi) (vii) The site contains both surface and subsurface cul- tural material. A surface flake scatter is exposed in a blowout covering an area 4 m by 35 m (13 ft by 116 ft). Diagnostic artifacts collected from the surface include a chert core tablet, a rhyolite, bipolar-flaked, cylindrical core, a rhyolite core tablet, two rhyolite microblade midsections, a basalt point base, a possible cobble hammerstone, and a chert scraper. In addition, 14 waste flakes were surface collected including two obsidian flakes. Three test pits were excavated, two of which produced cultural material. Test 1 produced a single rhyolite flake and Test 2 produced two basalt flakes. No tephra deposits were noted during reconnaissance testing. TLM 028 The site, consisting of two loci (A, B), is situated on an esker 1 ocated west of the mouth of the Tyone River on the north margin of the Susitna River. This esker parallels· a bend of the Susitna River for approximately 1 km (0. 6 mi). Locus A is situated at the highest elevation on the extreme northeast end of the esker, and Locus B is located approximately 750 m (2475 ft) southwest of Locus A on the 1 evel crest of the esker. The view from both loci is good in all directions although 1 imited by the relatively 1 ow elevation of the esker. The site is surficial, limited to a single, isolated flake collected at each 1 ocus~ At Locus A, a rhyo- lite flake was found in a blowout. Two test pits and a shovel test did not reveal any subsurface cultural material at this locus. A basalt waste flake was surface collected at Locus B from a game trail \'tlich follows the crest of the esker• A single test pit at this locus failed to reveal any additional cultural material. Intensive surface reconnaissance along the entire length of the esker did not ~oduce any addit- ional surface artifacts. TLM 031 The site is located on a high plateau on the north side of the Susitna River downriver from the mouth of Kosi na Creek. The site is situated in a system of hi 11 s and ridges surrounding sev.eral small 1 akes. The site consists of a single, isolated surface arti- fact, a black chert end scraper on a blade. Three E-4-69 2.4 -Known Sites in Project Area -Other Areas test pits excavated at the site failed to reveal additional cultural material. The site is located on an extensively deflated ridge, and intensive surface reconnaissance did not produce any further surface artifacts. (viii) TLM 032 The site is located on a high plateau on the north side of the Susitna River downriver from the mouth of Kosi na Creek. It is 1 ocated south of the southern- most point of the 1 argest of three kettle 1 akes at the eastern end· of the plateau. The view from the site is. panoramic but somewhat restricted to the south by topography. A total of 10 artifacts were surface collected during reconnaissance testing, including 2 quartzite end scrapers, a retouched rhyo 1 ite flake, a notched cobble exhibiting battering at one end, and a chalce- dony core fragment. In addition, 5 flakes were collected with lithologies including basalt, chert and quartzite. A single test pit in the immediate vicinity of the surface scatter did not reveal sub- surface artifacts. The entire area around the con- centration of surface artifacts consisted of bedrock and deflated ground. All observed artifacts were collected. (ix) TLM 036 The" site is 1 ocated on a high plate au on the north side of the Susitna River downriver from the mouth of Kosi na Creek. It is situated on a small knoll over- looking a south-facing slope leading down to the Susitna River. The knoll and ridge upon wttich the ·site is located are part of a system of discontinuous ridges exhibiting numerous bedrock and drift expo- sures. The view from the stte is panoramic ranging from 1 km to 5 km (0. 6 mi to 3 mi). The site consists of a surface lithic scatter exposed in a blowout approximately 8 m by 12 m (26. 5 ft by 40 ft) in size. A unifacially worked chert end scraper was surface collected from this blowout along with a single gray chert flake. No other cultural material was observed on the surface. A single test pit at the site did not reveal any subsurface cultural mate- rial and encountered bedrock within 10 em (4 in). E-4-70 - ""'' I I """1 ! - ..... - ,. .. - I'"'" - - 2.4 -Known Sites in Project Area -Other Areas (x) TLM 037 The site is located on a high plateau on the north side of the Susitna River downriver from the mouth of Kosi na Creek. It is situated on one of the numerous east-west trending glacially scoured ridges. Exposed bedrock and drift characterize·this ·plateau. The view is panoramic and includes two kettle lakes to the southwest of the site. This is a surface site consisting of four waste flakes exposed in a b 1 owout measuring approximate 1 y 40 m by 50 m (132 ft ·by 165 ft) ~ Two of these flakes, one of gray chert and one of basalt, were surface collected, and two gray chert flakes were left in place. No diagnostic artifacts were ob- served. A single test pit did not reveal any subsur- face cultural material. Soil deposition in the vici- nity of the ·site is ~hallow; bedrock was encountered within 10 cmbs. (xi) TLM 038 The site is located upstream from the mouth of Watana Creek on the eastern edge of a plain overlooking the creek from the west. It is situated on a small d.iscrete lobe of the continuous edge of the plain. Access to Watana Creek is difficult or impossible in places where downcutting has resulted in cliffs and steep ·bedrock exposures. The ,view encompasses the relatively 1 evel plain west of the site and a 1 ower all uvial terrace along with portions of Watana Creek to the north and northeast. There is no surface indication of a site at this location. Reconnaissance level testing included two test pits and ,three . shovel tests. Burned bone associated with charcoal was·revealed in one test pit and two shovel tests. Several hundred calcined bone fragments were. recovered. Most bone fragments were too small to identify, but 12 long bone fragments, 1 carpal, 1 metacarpal, and 1 tooth were identified as caribou. Systematic testing of this site included the excava- tion of five 1-m by 1-m (3. 3-ft by 3. 3-ft) test squares and a single 40-cm by 40-cm (16-in by 16-in) test pit. An additional 22 bone fragments and 9 thermally fractured rocks were recovered and attri bu- ted to a single occupation. Four of the test squares produced cultural material, although concentration of E-4-71 2.4 -Known Sites in Project Area -Other Areas faunal material was much less dense than in the reconnaissance test pits. No cultural lithic mate- rial other than fire-cracked rock was recovered. The cultural unit is within and above the Devil tephra. (xii) TLM 041 The site is 1 ocated on a high flat plain south of the Susitna River, southwest of the confluence of a large tributary of Fog Creek. The site is situated on a 1 ow knob on a broad, northeast-southwest, sloping, grassy plain. Despite low topographic relief, the site. location affords an unobstructed panoramic view of an open plain 300-m to 400-m (1000-ft to 1320-ft) wide and approximately 1-km (0. 6-mi) long. The site was identified by an R&M geologist who collected a tuffacious rhyolite flake from the sur- face. Subsequent intensive surface reconnaissance and two subsurface tests failed to reveal additional cultural material. The exact location at which the flake was collected was never identified. (xiii) TLM 044 The site is 1 ocated west of Jay Creek and north of the Susitna River on a high plateau comprising glacially scoured hi 11 s and ridges. It is situated on the deflated top. of a discrete knoll Which affords a panoramic view of the surrounding terrain and a valley to the north Which contains several lakes. Both surface and subsurface cultural material were present at this site. Surface material consisted of five lithic scatters exposed in blowouts near the highest elevation of the knoll. A complete lanceo- late point, a biface fragment, a retouched flake, a uniface fragment, 22 waste flakes and 19 bone frag- ments were surface collected during reconnaissance level testing. A single test pit Jl"Oduced 15 basalt flakes and 69 bone fragments associ a ted with char- coal. No tephra deposits were encountered. Flake lithologies present at this site include basalt, rhyolite, chert and chalcedony. (xiv) TLM 045 The site, consisting of two loci (A, B), is situated on the south-and east-facing slopes of a knoll northeast of TLM 044. The view from Locus A is E-4-72 .... - - - - - - ..... - !"'"' ' ' I""' ! - "'"' - 2. 4 -Known Sites in Project Area -Other Areas 1 imited by intervening topography to less than 100 m (330 ft). Locus B is situated on an east-facing slope overlooking a small valley and the view from this locus includes both the valley to the north, low marshy areas, and kettle lakes to the southwest. Reconnaissance 1 evel testing revealed both surface and subsurface cultural material. Surface material was found in three flake scatters comprising two loci (A~ B) 104 m (345ft) apart. A complete chert point, a chalcedony microblade, a chalcedony microblade fragment, a retouched flake, and 62 bone fragments were surface call ected along with 63 waste flakes. Approximately 126 surface flakes were left in place. A single test pit produced two basalt flakes and one rhyolite flake, about 290 bone fragments, 25 flakes, and 16 possible fire-cracked rocks. Faunal material included a phalanx identified as caribou, a tarsal fragment identified as possibly caribou, and a ·right and left maxilla identified as arctic ground squirrel (Spermophil us parryi). Lithologies represented at the site included basalt, rhyolite, chert~ chalcedony and obsidian. Subsurface cultural material appeared to be associ a ted with the contact between the Dev i1 and Watana tephra deposits. (xv) TLM 046 The general location and topographic setting of TLM 046 is simi 1 ar to that of TLM 044 and TLM 045. TLM 046 is situated on the easternmost and highest of three knolls, the western knolls containing the other two sites. All three knolls are part of the same 1 and form and the western slope of the highest knoll joins the ridge upon which the two lower knolls are situated. TLM 046 is located at the northern end of a north-south oriented knoll which affords the most commanding panoramic view of any of the surrounding terrain features. The view encompasses both the valley to the north with its series of interconnected 1 akes and 1 ower elevations to the east and southeast with kettle lakes. Both surface and subsurface cultural material were recovered from four flake scatters during reconnias- sance testing. Two projectile point bases, one of chert and one of basalt, were surface collected along with a basalt end scraper, a chert end scraper, 48 waste flake-s and about 200 bone fragments. Some E-4-73 2.4 -Known Sites in Project Area -Other Areas surface bones and 43 observed flakes were 1 eft ·j n place. Only one of three test pits produced cultural material: 30 flakes (lithologies including basalt, rhyolite, chert and obsidian) and 8 burned bone frag- ments associated with charcoal. Subsurface cultural material was associated with the Watana tephra and the GOntact between the Watana and Oshetna tephra. A radiocarbon determination of 2340 + 145 years: 390 B.C. (DIC-1903) was obtained from charcoal associated with subsurface cultural material. Systematic testing included the excavation of five 1 m by 1 m test square, three of which produced cul- tural material. Two additional surface lithic scat- ters were identified at the site during systematic t~sting. Additional surfac.e collection at the site included 1 point base, 75 flakes and 8 bone frag- ments. A tota 1 of 180 flakes were recovered from the three test squares which produced cultural material. A charcoal concentration interpreted as a hearth feature was encountered 5 em to 10 em (2 in to 4 in) below the surface in one of the test squares. (xvi) TLM 047 The site is located downriver from Vee Canyon on the west side of the Susitna River. It is situated 800 m {2640 ft) west of the river at the north end of a north-/south-oriented bedrock ridge. The Susitna River valley and the river itself are visible to the north, east and south, but the view to the west is blocked by bedrock cliffs and higher terrain. The site consists of a 3-m by 10-m (10-ft by 33-ft) surface 1 it hi c scatter exposed on the deflated crest of a bedrock ridge. Surface-collected artifacts in- cluded a chert biface fragment, a chert mircoblade fragment, and a retouched chert flake in addition to 24 rhyolite and basalt flakes. Approximately 70 rhyolite flakes were left in place. Two test pits excavated during reconnaissance level testing failed to reveal subsurface cultural material, and the site appears to be 1 imited to the extreme northern end of the ridge. ( xvi i) TLM 049 The site is 1 ocated east of the mouth of the Oshetna River on the south side of the Susitna River. It is situated on the summit of a discrete knoll located on E-4-74 - ·~ - - - -I - i"' ..... - - - - - - ·- 2.4 -Known Sites in Project Area -Other Areas on a north-south trending continuous ridge overlook- ing the Susitna River. The site overlooks a broad alluvial terrace to the west, north, and east which contains two lakes, only one of which is visible from the site. Both surface and subsurface cultural material are present at this site. A total· of four test pits were excavated on the knoll, one of which produced a sin- gle basalt flake within the organic mat. Two addi- tional surface flakes were observed, but not col- lected, in a blowout on the ridge top approximately 500 m (1650 ft) south of the knoll. {xviii) TLM 052 The site, consisting of two loci (A, B) is located northwest of the mouth of Jay Creek on a southeast- northwest trending ridge. This ridge is the highest of numerous deflated ridges and knolls in this vici- nity and affords an excellent vantage point overl oak- i ng the 1 argest kett 1 e 1 ake in the area, an 8 -hectare {20-acre) Take (Lana Lake) southeast of the site. Locus A is situated at the edge of the deflated crest of the ridge on the southern slope overlooking Laha Lake, and Lac us B is 1 ocated on the northeastern rounded crest of the ridge. Both surface and subsurface cultural material were found at this site. Artifacts surface collected from the site included one basalt and two chert point bases and seven basalt and chert waste flakes. Thirty-four basalt and chert flakes were left uncol- lected. Most of the surface 1 ithic material was observed at Locus A where a single test pit excavated immediately southwest of the largest concentration of flakes produced a black bashalt flake 7 em (3 in) bel ow the surface at the contact between the organic horizon and a gray silt (Devil tephra). {xix) TLM 053 The site, consisting of two loci (A, B), is located northeast of the mouth of Jay Creek. Situated on a deflated ridge, the two-site loci are 240m (792 ft) apart on opposite ends of the ridge. Locus A contains. both surface and subsurface mate- rial. A surface lithic scatter includes a chert flake bifacially retouched on the right lateral E-4-75 2.4 -Known Sites in Project Jlrea-Other Areas margin with a graver spur at the distal end; a whitish-gray chert flake with retouch on the left and right margins at the distal end; a large tuffacious rhyolite flake; a basalt flake; and a chalcedony flake. Test Pit 1 revealed a 1 i ght brown tuffacious rhyolite flake on the contact of the glacial drift and the Devil tephra unit. Locus B consists of a single gray chert flake retouched on the dorsal surface (possibly a scraper). Locus B 1 acked any soil other than glacial drift and bedrock, and there- fore, no subsurface testing was conducted. (xx) TLM 054 The site is 1 ocated on a kame or esker remnant east of Tsusena Creek. No surface material was observed at the site. Two dark gray chalcedony flakes were recovered from beneath the organic mat during an initial shovel test. This shovel test was expanded into Test Pit 1, and one small bone fragment was recovered. A second test pit 5 m (16. 5 ft) northeast of the first was negative. (xxi) TLM 055 The site is located north of the northwest tip of Tsusena Butte, and west of Tsusena Creek. It is situated on a low knoll which rises approximately 2 m (6. 6 ft) above the surrounding terrain. Tsusena Creek is vis·ible from the site through present vege- tation. A very wet area consisting of muskeg and marsh is present between the site and Tsusena Creek, although the immediate vicinity of the site is better drained and covered with spruce forest. No surface artifacts were observed at the site. Two shovel tests were placed on this knoll, one of which produced a chert scraper. This shovel test was ex- panded into a test pit from \'hlich four additiona1 chert flakes were recovered. Cultural material occurred above the Devil tephra in a zone of finely divided organics. During the systematic testing of site TLM 097, TLM 055 was revisited and a single 1 m (3.3 ft) test square was excavated at the site in an attempt t0 obtain additional diagnostic lithic mate- ria1. Four burned bone fragments and five fire- cracked rocks were found associated with a dense concentration of charcoa1 within the same finely d.ivided organic horizon above the Devil tephra. Three very small chert flakes were the only 1 it hi c material recovered from this test square. E-4-76 -i - - - - - '"" ..... ..... - - 2.4 -Known Sites in Project Area -Other Areas (xxii) TLM 057 The site is located east of Big Lake overlooking an outlet creek to the north and the lake itself to the west. The surface lithic scatter at the site included a chert microblade fragment, two chert flakes, and a quartzite fragment, all of which were collected • Several basalt flakes were left uncollected from the surface. Five shovel tests and a single test pit were placed on the flat knoll top but all failed to reveal subsurface material. (xxiii) TLM 066 The site is located on the east-southeast slope of a ridgetop plateau east of Watana Creek and northeast ·of the mouth of Watana Creek. The site overlooks a small unnamed creek to the southeast, mountainous slopes to the northeast, and surrounding 1 ow-lying terrain in other directions. Three bifacially chip- ped tools were recovered from an exposed blowout surface during reconnaissance testing. These include a gray chert lanceolate projectile point found in two pieces, the base of a black chert project i 1 e point with a reworked tip, and a gray chert ovate biface found in two pieces. One test pit excavated near the ovate bi face fai 1 ed to reveal subsurface cultural material. (xxiv) TLM 067 The Sonona Creek site is situated on top of a knoll along the east side of Big Bones Ridge, west of Sonona Creek. The knoll is a prominent topographic feature, and the eastern slope drops continuously to the level of Sonona Creek. The site is above tree- line and commands a view in all directions. The site consists of three surface 1 ithic concentra- tions and three rock features. The bulk of the cul- tural material is exposed on the surface, but in one of the two test pits excavated at the site a jasper flake .. was recovered from a dark organic zone. No tephra were associated with the artifact. Feature 1 is a 3.3-m by 1-m (11-ft by 3.3-ft) linear rock pile showing definite stacking and placement of E-4-77 2. 4 -Known Sites in Project flrea -Other Areas local bedrock boulders. The height of the finished wall is approximately 50 em (20 in). Feature 2 is a smaller 11 Windbreak,11 50-cm wide by 50-cm (20-in by 20-i n) high. A 11Wi ndOW 11 formed by two uprights and a cap stone affords a view to the east. Cluster 1 consists of 2 chalcedony projectile points, 1 red jasper point, 1 quartz crystal , 2 chert flakes, 1 chalcedony flake, and 1 possible tool. Cluster 2 consists of 5 b~ack basalt flakes. M1scellaneous surface finds included 1 black basalt biface frag- ment, 2 rhyolite flakes, 2 chalcedony flakes, 1 chert flake, 1 polished green pebble and 1 cobble chopper. (xxv) TLM 069 The site is located east of Jay Creek and north of the Susitna River at the top of an elongated knoll. The knoll is part of a series of glacially scoured bedrock knolls which characterize the topography in the general vicinity of the site. A small pond is located 50 m ( 165 ft) northeast of the site. The site was discovered during reconnaissance testing and was later systematically tested. During recon- naissance testing, 741 flakes of various materials including chert, rhyolite, basalt, a.nd obsidian were recovered. Two utilized obsidian flakes and one utilized chert flake were also collected. Five pieces of fire-cracked rock and 1539 burned bone fragments were call ected. All but three flakes were recovered from three test pits. All bone and fire- cracked rock fragments were call ected. Systematic testing of the site included the excava- tion of three 1-m by 1-m (3.3-ft by 3.3-ft) test squares, three 50-cm by 50-em (20-in by 20-in) test squares, and a series of shovel tests to help deli- neate the limits of the site. The cultural material recovered from this testing consisted of 1232 flakes, 4 tool fragments, 3 scrapers, 1 biface, 1 biface fragment, 1 core, 1 point, and numerous bur ned bone fragment~. The cultural material was associ a ted with the contact of the Oshetna tephra and the glacial drift, the contact of the Watana tephra and the Oshetna. tephra within the Watana tephra, and on the contact with the decomposed organic layer and the Devil tephra. The site has at least three archae- ological components, and possibly four. E-4-78 - ~' - !""" - i - - 2. 4 -Known Sites in Project Pre a -Other Areas (xxvi) TLM 074 The site is located on the rim of the southern upland terrace over 1 ook·i ng the Sus itna River on a bend in the river northeast of the mouth of the Oshetna River. A total of eight shovel tests were dug at the site, one of which was expanded into a test pit after re- covering a 1 arge quart i ze flake from the contact of the Devil and Watana tephra. Another test pit was excavated on. the site 'lttlich revealed a concentration of charcoal. (xxvii) TLM 076 The site, consisting of three loci (A, B, C), is 1 ocated on the south side of the Susitna River east- northeast of the confluence of the Oshetna and the Susitna Rivers. The three loci are 1 ocated on kame knolls and are higher than the surrounding terrain. Locus A consists of a lithic scatter and a partially exposed hearth. The hearth contains charcoa 1 , bur ned bone and fire-cracked rock. An obsidian flake was collected 50 em (20 in) nor.th of the hearth. Four chert flakes were collected from a blowout, and the two test pits excavated during reconnaissance testing were ster i 1 e. Locus B consists of an obsidian point fragment and a flake, both found on the surface. No subsurface material was recovered from the. test pit at Locus B. Locus C consists of one basalt flake found on the surface. No subsurface material was observed in the test pit excavated at Locus c. (xxviii) TLM 078 The site is located on a small kame knoll 8 m (26.4 ft) above and east of Tsusena Creek, and north of Tsusena Butte. Both surface and subsurface material were jresent at the site. A single basalt flake was .observed on the surface. Additional 1 ithic material was recovered in two subsurface tests. One gray chert flake associa- ted with the humic mat was recovered in Test Pit 1 during reconnaissance testing. Test Pit 2 revealed four black basalt and two gray chert flakes associa- ted with the Watana tephra. E-4-79 2.4 -Known Sites in Project Area -Other Areas {xxix) TLM 081 The site is 1 ocated on a kame knoll southeast of Tsusena Creek and north of Tsusena Butte. No surface artificats were observed at the site. An initial shovel test near the center of the kame revealed two brown rhyolite flakes. The shovel test was expanded into a test pit and thirty additional flakes of the same materia 1 were recovered. The artifacts appear to be associ a ted with the Watana tephra but cryoturbati on has occurred and only a tentative correlation may be made at this time. {xxx) TLM 083 The site is located on a kame knoll east of Tsusena Creek and north of Tsusena Butte. The site is 1 o- cated on a feature of sufficient relative relief to afford a panoramic view of the surrounding region. No surface artifacts were observed at the site. A single gray rhyolite flake with retouch was recovered in a shovel test which was expanded into Test Pit 1. No exact provenience is ava"ilable for the flake and no further subsurface material was observed in Test Pit 1 or in the second shovel test located 2 m (6. 6 ft) to the southeast. {xxxi) TLM 084 The site is situated on top of a kame east of Tsusena Creek and north of Tsusena Butte. The site rests on the most northerly tip of a 30-m long by 22-m wide {100-ft long by 72.6-ft wide) wide northeast- southwest oriented kame, 6 m (20ft) above the flood- plain of Tsusena Creek. One hundred eighty b 1 ack basa 1 t flakes were recovered 4-7 em {2-3 in) bel ow the suface at the contact be- tween the humus and the Devil tephra in Test Pit 1. No surface artifacts were observed. Test Pit 2, 8 m (26.4 ft) southeast of Test Pit 1, was sterile. (xxxii) TLM 085 The site is located on a small kame or esker remnant east of Tsusena Creek and north of Tsusena Butte. The site is situated on the southern end of the kame and commands an extensive view of the creek and its course to the north and downstream to the south. E-4-80 - - - - - - - .... - - r 2. 4 -Known Sites in Project h'ea -Other Areas (xxxiii) {xxxiv} No surface artifacts were observed at the site. Test Pit 1 revealed 69 gray chert flakes from a depth of 2-11 em (1-4 in) bel ow the surface. The flakes were found in a zone of gray .to 1 ight brown tephra imme- diately above the glacial drift. Mixing of the soil units was present due to cryoturbation, and tenta- tively, the cultural material can be associated with the Watana tephra. Test Pit 2 and two additional shovel tests failed to reveal further cultural mate- rial. TLM 086 The site is located on the top of a small kame ~ich is 15 m (50 ft) above the level of Tsusena Creek to the west and immediately north of one of its clear- water tributaries. A single black chert flake was discovered in a sur- face exposure on the south slope of the kame. Sub- surface testing failed to reveal any cultural mate- rial. TLM 087 The site is located on the south half of a northeast- southwest oriented kame in the kettle ~nd kame topo- graphy which borders Tsusena, Creek north of Tsusena Butte. No surface ~rtifacts were observed at the site. Test Pit 1, located at the highest point on the kame, pro- duced two gray chert flakes~· The context of the flakes appears to be in the Devil tephra unit. A second test pit failed to reveal further cultural material. (-XXXV) TLM 088 The site is situated on an esker southeast of Tsusena Creei< within an area \'tlere the creek makes a sharp bend around the northern slopes of Tsusena Butte. No surface artifacts were observed at the site. Test Pit 1 revealed 22 black basalt flakes associated with the ~shetna t~phra. A small depression, 1-m by 80-cm by 15-cm (3.3-ft by 2.7-ft by 0.5-ft) deep was pre- sent at the site and a test pit was excavated in its center. fhi s test revealed evidence of subsurface -disturbance in that the strata were mixed and cons i- -derabl,y different from the strata present 'fn a test pit outsid~ the depression. No cultural material was encountered in this test pit. t:-4-81 2.4 -Known Sites in Project Area -Other Areas (xxxvi) TLM 089 The site is located on the northern ridge of Tsusena Butte east of Tsusena Creek. The site consists of six soil exposures which contain over a hundred basalt flakes, the majority of which were left uncollected. Collected artifacts included a brown chert biface fragment and numerous rhyolite and chert flakes. Test Pit 1 revealed a hearth con- sisting of a thick charcoal unit with numerous faunal and lithic specimens. Identifiable faunal remains consisted of one calcined caribou 3rd phalanx, one calcined metatarsal/carpal fragment (possibly cari- bou), and four tooth fragments (possibly caribou). Lithic material from Test Pit 1 consists of 1 trans- 1 ucent flake, 6 green-gray chert flakes, 10 dark gray chert flakes, 19 tan-gray chert flakes, 36 b 1 ack · basalt flakes, and 498 brown chert flakes. The cul- tural material from Test Pit 1 is from above the Devil tephra. (xxxvii) TLM 090 The site is located on a level bench of a north ridge of Tsusena Butte . overlooking the Tsusena Creek valley. Five black basalt flakes, one of \'ttlich was collected, were found on the surface' of a small exposure. Seven shovel tests placed. in· the vicinity of the exposure were sterile as was Test Pit 1. · (xxxviii) TLM 091 The site, consisting of two loci (A, B), is located on the southern end of a north-south trending narrow bedrock ridge, north of the highest point of Tsusena Butte •. The site is situated on two sides of a dip which separates the rid,ge from .Tsusena Butte. Locus A consisted of ten black basalt flakes 1 ocated on the surface of a bedrock-soil exposure, in a 30-cm (1-ft) square area. Three· of the flakes were collec- ted. Test Pit 1. at ·Locus A failed to reveal any subsurface artifacts. Locus B consisted of a black basalt point tip. No further testing was conducted at this locus. E-4-82 ~I - - - F"" - 2. 4 -Known Sites in Project ftrea -Other Are.as (xxxix) TLM 092 The site is 1 ocated on a north-south oriented bedrock ridge on the west side of the northern arm of Tsusena Lake. The site consists of a surface lithic scatter in a soil exposure measuring 90 em by 40 em (3 ft by 1. 3 ft) on. a bedrock outcrop. A tot a 1 of 3 b 1 ack fine grained basalt flakes were collected from this expo- sure. Test Pit 1 failed to produce any subsurface cultural material. (xl) TLM 093 The site is 1 ocated southwest of the northern arm of Tsusena Lake and is situated on an exposed bedrock knob occupying an area 20m by 35 m (66 ft by 115.5 ft) on the top of this outcrop. Both surface and subsurface cultural material are present with three clusters of surface flakes ob- served in blowouts which occur among the bedrock exposures. Cluster 1 contained 15 flakes, of which 7 were collected. Cluster 2 contained 4 flakes, 3 of which (including a retouched basalt flake) were col- lected. Cluster 3 contained 5lflakes, of which 12 were collected. Lithologies represented on the sur- face were basalt, chert and rhyolite. Subsurface testing at the site included one test pit and eight shovel tests. Test Pit 1 was excavated 2 m ( 6. 6 ft) from Cluster 2 and revea 1 ed a tota 1 of 33 dark gray basalt flakes associated with the Watana tephra. An additional flake of similar material was recovered from the Oshetna tephra. {xl i) TLM 094 The site is located west of Tsusena Creek and north of Tsusena Butte. It is situated on the southern end of a kame which rises about 5 m (16. 5 ft) above the surrounding marshy fl oodpl ai n. Twelve flakes {six of \'klich were collected), located in a gravel exposure on the. southwest end of the kame, comprise the surface artifacts at the site and are of chert and basalt. Two arti cul ati ng fragments of a gray basalt biface fragment were also collected from the exposure. A test pit was excavated 1. 5 E-4-83 2.4 -Known Sites in Project Area -Other Areas ( 5 ft) northeast of the scatter which produced four translucent flakes from the contact of the humic zone and the Devil tephra, two light chert flakes from the Watana tephra, and one black chert flake from the contact of the Watana tephra and a gray-brown silt at 11 em (4 in) below surface. The site may be multicomponent, but mixing of the soil units was evi- dent due to cryoturbation, and correlations of cul- tural material to stratigraphic units is tentative. (xlii) TLM 095 The site is located on the west side of Tsusena Creek north of Tsusena Butte. The site is situated on a 6-m (20-ft) high fame kno11 which is part of the general kettle and kame topography of the upper Tsusena Creek drainage. No surface artifacts were observed at the site; how- ever, two of seven shovel tests placed at the two areas of highest elevation on the kno11 revealed cul- tural material. Test Pit 1 at the northwest end of the knoll revealed 50 fine grained basalt flakes from within the Oshetna tepha. Test Pit 2 at the south- east end of the knoll revealed 23 fine grained basalt flakes from the Watana tephra. The site may be mul ticomponent. (xliii) TLM 096 The site is located north of Tsusena Butte and west of Tsusena Creek at the western edge of a marshy al- luvial plain. It is situated on the top of a low narrow ridge which trends east to west. No surface artifacts were observed at the site. Eight shovel tests were dug at the site, two of which were expanded into test pits 1 and 2. Test Pit 1 revealed three whitish-gray chert flakes from the Devil tephra. Test Pit 2 was sterile as were the remaining six shovel tests. (xliv) TLM097 The site is located northwest of Tsusena Butte on the west side of Tsusena Creek. It is situated at the top of an east-facing bluff which overlooks Tsusena Creek and passes approximately 50 m {165 ft) east of the site. The field of view is panoramic with the depth of view greatest to the northeast overlooking a broad alluvial plain. E-4-84 - - - - -I r - - - 2.4 -Known Sites in Project Prea -Other Areas Both surface and subsurface cultural material were collected during reconnaissance level testing of the site. A gray chert lanceolate point was surface- collected fromthe site along with a basalt flake. Twelve shovel tests were dug along the top of the bluff, two of which revealed subsurface cultural material. These two shovel tests were expanded into test pits, one of which produced additional cultural material. This test pit produced a total of 55 flakes, one bone fragment, and one fire-cracked rock, all associated with a concentration of charcoal at the contact of the Dev.i 1 tephra with the zone of finely divided organics (A horizon). Flake litholo- gies from this test pit include basalt and both black and gray chert. Systematic testing of the site included the excava- tion of five 1-m by 1-m (3.3-ft by 3.3-ft) test squares and 24 shovel tests. All five of the test squares and four of the shovel tests produced cul- tural material. Diagnostic lithic material produced by subsurface testing included a basalt side-notched point base, a basalt end scraper, 4 basalt blade-like flakes, a chert end scraper, a possible backed scrap- er of tuffacious material, 4 retouched flakes and 2 flake core fragments. In addition, 120 fire-cracked rocks were collected along with more than 400 burned bone fragments. Flake lithologies include basalt, chert, rhyolite, tuff, siltstone, chalcedony and obsidian. Cultural material is present at the con- tact between the Oshetna tephra and the Watana tephra and above the Devil tephra with a minimum of two components present at this site. A side-notched point base was excavated from the Oshetna tephra in association with charcoal and a dense concentration of basalt flakes. A radiocarbon determination on charcoal from the same stratigraphic level at a nearby test, which was also associated with basalt flakes, produced a date of 3720 + 60 c14 years B.P.: 1770B.C. (DIG 2283). (xl v) TLM 100 The site, consisting of two loci (A, B), is located at the western end of Clarence Lake, near Gi 1 bert Creek. The site consists of 13 rectangular, square, or round depress ions on terrain features slightly elevated above the lake level and lake margin of the area. E-4-85 2. 4 -Known Sites in Project Area -Other Areas largest of these depressions, Feature 1, measures 6 m by 6.5 m (20ft by 21.5 ft). Seven depression fea- tures, none larger than 3m (10ft) in diameter, are clustered 40 m (132 ft) northeast of Feature 1. All features are between 20 em and 110 em (8 in and 44 in) deep with fairly vertical walls. Locus B consists of two depression features; the 1 arger of the two measures 4 m by 4 m (13. 2 ft by 13.2 ft) and the smaller measures 1.3 m by 1.1 m (4.3 ft by 3. 6 ft) and is rectangular. No subsurface testing was conducted due to the number and integrity of the extant features. (xlvi) TLM 105 The site is located on the top of a broad, flattened hi 11 on the north shore of Gl arence Lake. Gl arence Lake and adjacent low-lying swampland are visible to the south, east and west. Uplands dominate the view .to the north. Two test pits and one shovel test were excavated at the site during reconnaissance testing. The two test pits call ecti vely produced 1 black basalt and 30 white rhyolite flakes. No additi anal cultural mate- rial was found in the shovel test. Surface material recovered in an area of disturbed sod consisted of 12 black basalt flakes, 1 blue-gray cryptocrystal- 1 i ne flake, 2 white rhyo 1 i te flakes, 9 brown chert flakes, 1 quartz flake, 2 gray rhyo 1 ite flakes and 3 gray-white chert flakes. It appears that some of the 1 it hi c material was recovered from between the Oshetna and Watana tephras. {xlvii). TLM 116 The sit~ consists of a rock cairn located on top of a hi 11 southeast of Tsusena Lake. The 1. 3-m ( 4. 3-ft) high cairn rests on an area of exposed bedrock. A panoramic view is available from the site with the greatest depth of view to the south and west. No subsurface tests were placed on the site because of the rocky nature of the terrain. The rocks used in construction were generally 50 em (20 in) 1 ong, and there was no evidence of small stones being em- ployed for chinking or leveling. The rocks were stacked into a pyramid arrangement with an open framework. A 15-cm (6-in) long bone fragment was the only object found at the site. E-4-86 - - - - - ,., ' - ,. .. - ,. ... -! r I ' - 2. 4 -Known Sites in Project h'ea -Other Areas (xlviii) TLM 117 The site is 1 ocated on a north-south oriented ridge which overlooks the confluence of Deadman Creek and one of its tributaries. , The ridge is one of several low, rolling ridges Which border the north side of Deadman Creek and have been truncated by it. A pan- oramic view is available fr'om the site. The one test pit excavated during reconnaissance testing did not, produce any cultural material. Sur- face lithic material consisting of 4 flakes was loca- ted on the northern half of the ridge 1 m (3. 3 ft) below the centrally located high point. One black basa 1t flake and one gray chert, flake were coll ec- ted. (xl ix) TLM 118 The site is located north of the Susitna River and west of Devil Creek ,in an area with kettle and kame topography and deeply incised ravines. The site is situated on the summit of a, knoll near a small lake and appears to be primarily oriented toward the lake, because the view to the south is obstructed by the continuation of the knoll and pr~sent vegetation. No surface material was observed at the site, but a shovel test produced 5 flakes, and 3 fire-cracked r,ocks. A test pit excavated next to the positive shove 1 test produced 2 6 chert fl ake s, 1 mi crob 1 ade- l·ike flake, 1 light gray chert biface and 4 fire- cracked rocks. The cultural layer occurs between the vegetation mat ,and an underlying pinkish gray fine matrix which: may represent the Devil tephra or an ash. Nine other shovel tests failed to reveal fur- ther artifactual material. (1} TLM 120 The site is located south of the Susitna River, southeast of , Watana Creek mouth, on the eastern portion of a glaciolacustrine plane in a low-lying ridge and knoll system. The site occurs on a 1 ow, rounded knoll Which is situated between two small streams. The field of view from the site encompasses nearby flat ground, facing ridge and knoll slopes, hilly uplands to the south and the Susitna valley to the north. E-4-87 2.4 -Known Sites in Project Area -Other Areas A surface lithic scatter composed of 16 basalt flakes in a 3-m by 1. 5-m (10-ft by 5-ft) area was observed and collected. A test pit excavated on the northeast edge of the scatter produced 7 basalt flakes from the organic mat. Six shove 1 tests placed on the summit and sides of the knoll were negative. (li) TLM 121 The site is located south of the Susitna River,, southeast of the Watana Creek mouth, on the eastern portion of a glaciolacustrine plain in a low-lying ridge and knoll system. The site occurs in a large, flat area. A small drainage is 1 ocated to the west. The field of view from the site includes surrounding ridges and knolls, intervening drainages and boggy areas, hilly uplands to the south and the Sus itna valley to the north. No surface cultural material was observed. A test pit produced 14 calcined bone fragments, 8 fragments of fire-cracked rock, and charcoal from a cultural layer immediately beneath the organic mat and above the Devil tephra. Two shovel tests were negative. { 1 i i ) TLM 122 The site is located south of the Susitna ~iver, southeast of Watana Creek mouth, on the eastern portion of a glaciolacustrine plane in a low-lying ridge and knoll system. The site occurs on the southeastern end of a 1 ow ridge at a point where the side of the ridge drops abruptly to adjacent ground to the south and east. Surrounding ridges and k.nons, intervening low ground, hilly uplands to the south, and tile SusHna valley to the north are visible from the site. A single surface basalt flake was observed in a small deflated area. A test pit placed adjacent to the deflated area was negati-ve. Seven shovel tests were dug on the ridge end and -other deflated areas were exam1ned, but no additiona~ cultural mate~ia~ was fo-und. ( li i i) TLM 123 The site is located south of the Susitna River, southeast of ~atana Creek mouth, on the eastern portion of a glaciolacustrine plain in a iow-lying E-4-88 .... , .... - - - - - ..... ' r- ' !"""' I I 2. 4 -Known Sites in Project h'~a -Other Areas (liv) ( 1 v) ridge and knoll system on the crest of a ridge. View from the site is panoramic. encompass1ng southern uplands, surrounding ridges and knolls, and the Susitna valley, as well as boggy areas and drainages around the ridge. Ex ami nati{)n of a 1 arge 10-m by 15-m (33-ft by 50-ft) {!efl ated area revealed a surface scatter of weathered oone and charcoal. In ad-dit1\ln, 2 small rounded depressions were found. Pit 1~ 3 m { 10 ft) southwest of site datum, is about 1.5 m (5 ft) in diameter and 35 m (116 ft7 deep. A test 1Jit placed in the vegeta- tion mat on the margin of the deflated ar~a near the bone and charcoal surface scatter did not yield arti- factual material. A shovel test in Pit 2 produced 2 possible birch bark fragments. Seven other shovel tests along 'the ridge were negative. TLM 124 The site is located south of the Susitna River, soutneast of Watana Creek mouth, on the eastern portion of a glaciolacustrine plain in a low-lying ridge and knol 1 system. The site occurs on a low rid9e with a small stream nearby to the east. The field of view from the ridge crest includes sur- rounding ridges and knolls, adjacent low ground, hi1ly uplands to the south, and the Susitna vai1ey to the north. Two surface art if acts were call ected from the ridge, including 1 basalt projectile iJOint from a deflated area on the ridge crest and 1 modified brown chert' flake found on the surface on an undefl a ted frost boil on the east face 1Jf the ridge near its base and approximately 90 m (300 ft) northwest of the projec- tile point. A test pit was excavat-ed in the vegeta- tion mat on the margin of the deflated area near the projectile point with negative ~esults. Sixteen shovel tests on the ridge and examination of other soil exposur~ failed to revea1 further art1factual JTJater i a 1 • TLM 125 The site is located south of the Susitna River, southeast of Watana Creek mouth, on the eastern por- tion of a glaciolacustrine plain in a low-lying ridge and knoll system. The site occurs on the sout-h- western end of the summit of a knoll. Field of view from the site includes surrounding ridges and knolls, E-4-89 2. 4 -Known Sites in Project flrea -Other Areas extensive intervening 1 ow ground, hilly up 1 ands to the south, and the Susitna valley to the north. Present vegetation causes some local obstruction. No surface indications of a site were observed. Of seven shovel tests, one produced a single basalt flake. Two additional basalt flakes and charcoal were found in a sandy silt with pebbles below the surface organic in a test pit placed adjacent to the positive shovel test. (lvi) TLIVI 127 The site is located south of the Susitna River, southeast of Watana Creek mouth on the eastern portion of a glaciolacustrine plain on a low-lying ridge and knoll system. The site occurs on the east end of an elongated knoll. The sides of the knoll are steep to the north and east, but merge with ground of only slightly lower elevation to the south. Field of view from the site is good though limited by present forestation and encompasses other ridges and knolls, intervening low ground, hilly uplands to the south, and the Sus itna valley to the north. No surfac.e indication of the site was observed. Of 11 shovel tests, 2 were positive, 1 producin~ a single basalt flake and the other revealing 3 basalt flakes. The latter was expanded into a test pit from which 4 additional basalt flakes were recovered from the surface organic mat. Two small . circular depressions were noted at the site, but no stratigraphic disturbance was noted in the test pit, which was placed on the margin of one of the depressions, and for this reason they are presumed to be of noncultural origin. (lvii) TLM 128 The site is 1 ocated on the west side of Jay Creek on a distinctive topographic feature formed by the intersection of a major ridge and a minor transverse ridge. In the zone of intersection, the crests combine to form a relatively flat area which is a local point of high relief. Field of view from the site is panoramic, including hilly upland slopes to the north and west, continuing ridge systems to the east, and 1 ower Jay Creek va 11 ey to the south. E-4-90 - - - - ,, ... , 2.4 -Known Sites in Project Area -Other Areas (lviii) Both reconnaissance and systematic testing were conducted at this site. The site was initially identified by the presence of artifactual material in association with, an erosional feature. This material included rhyolite and chert flakes, and a pentagonal point fragment. A test pit was p 1 aced adjacent to the erosional feature and artifactual material was recovered from 2 different stratigraphic levels. This included 6 rhyolite and 5 basalt flakes from the humic layer above the Devil tephra, in addition to an obsidian microblade fragment from a brownish silty matrix well bel ow the Oshetna tephra. Systematic testing included the excavation of four 1-m by 1-m (3.3-ft by 3.3-ft) test squares in the vicinity of the test pit. A total of 4613 lithics and 12 bone fragments were collected and 2 cultural components were defined. Forty-two flakes were recovered in association with the Devil tephra. The remaini119 artifactual material was located in association with a buried soil below the Oshetna tephra within a fine o 1 i ve brown silty · sediment. The majority of the lithic material from the lower component was of a green chert, although black basalt and a brown trans- lucent chert were also represented. Only 11 of the 4571 lithics from the lower component showed evidence of retouch. Most of these can be described as flakes with either unifacial or bifacial retouch on the flake margins. A biface tip of brown translucent chert and a basalt biface fragment were the only 2 artifacts where modification was not restricted to the margins. On the western slope of the site, there is a rectan- gular feature which appears to be the result of a recent excavation. During initial reconnaissance, 5 shovel tests were placed on the 1 evel central area of the topographic feature the site is located on, but no further artifactua.l material was found. TLM 129 The site is located south of the Susitna River, southeast of Watana Creek mouth, on the eastern portion of a glaciolacustrine plain in a low-lying ridge and knoll system. The site consists of 2 loci , on 2 points of high relief on a ridge. Locus A is near the northern ~nd of the ridge, while Locus B is about 200 m (660 ft) south of Locus A. The fields of view from both loci are panoramic, since they are among the points of highest relief in the vicinity. E-4-91 2. 4 -Known Sites in Project Jlrea -Other Areas At Locus A, a test pit placed adjacent to a surface 1 it hi c scatter produced flakes from within and above the Devi 1 tephra. Thirty-eight bas a 1t f1 akes were collected. A small circular depression about 80 em (32 in) in diameter and about 15 em (6 in) deep was noted 2 6 m ( 86 ft) to the east near the base of the slope but was not tested. Locus B consists of a circular depression about 1.4 m ( 4. 6 ft} in diameter and about 30 em (12 in) deep which was not tested. Although 27 shovel tests were placed on the ridge around and between Locus A and B, and soil exposures on the ridge were examined, no additional artifactual material was found. (lix) TLM 130 The site is located on the south side of the Susitna River, southeast of Watana Creek mouth on the eastern portion of a glaciolacustrine plain in a low-lying ridge and knoll system. The site occurs on the south end of a relatively small elongated knoll between 2 drainages. Field of view from the site is limited to the east by higher ridges and knolls, but includes knolls, ridges and boggy low ground to the west, the hilly uplands to the south, and the Susitna valley to the north. No surface artifacts were found. An initial shovel test produced 6 flakes of 5 materia 1 types and 15 bone fragments. A test pit superimposed on this shovel test produced 3 flakes of 3 material types from the Devi 1 tephra. One brown chert end scraper, 2 flakes, and 4 unburned and 56 burned bone fragments were recovered from the contact between the Devil and Watana tephras; and 2 flakes and 85 burned bone fragments from the Watana tephra. A second shovel test on the northern end of the knoll produced no artifactual material. Systematic testing of the site included the excava- tion of four 1-m by l-m (3.3-ft by 3.3-ft) test squares. Although site stratigraphy has been affec- ted by frost activity, the contrasting vertical dis- tribution of lithic and faunal remains suggests that more than one component is present. The postulated upper component at the site is represented by 96 flakes of various material types and 27 small bone fragments from above the conta'ct between the Devi 1 and Watana tephras. The lower component is distin- guished by its stratigraphic position in the Watana E-4-92 - - - - .... - - - "'"' - - - -I I, ..... 2. 4 -Known Sites in Project Jlrea -Other Areas ( 1 X) ( 1 xi) tephra and by the predominance of faunal remains. One thousand eighty-two bone fragments, mostly small bur ned pieces, and 4 7 flakes of similar materia 1 types as those of the upper component were recovered from the 1 ower component. TLM 131 The site is located south of the Susitna River, southeast of Watana Creek mouth in the eastern portion of a glaciolacustrine plain in a low-lying ridge and knoll system. The site occurs on a low rise in a boggy field. The view from the site includes higher ridges and knolls, intervening boggy ground, and h·illy uplands to the south. One brown chert flake was surface-call ected from a deflated frost boil feature. A test pit was excavated in the vegetation mat at the margin of the frost boil near the location of the flake, but no subsurface artifactual material was found. TLM 132 The site is located south of the Susitna River, southeast of Watana Creek mouth in the eastern portion of a glaciolacustrine plain in a low-lying ridge and knoll system. The site occurs on the south end of a knoll. Field of view from the site includes adjacent drainages, knolls to the west and northeast, and terrain rising to hilly uplands to the south, as well as Susitna valley to the north. One gray chert flake was found in a so i1 exposure on the knoll, but 13 shovel tests and inspection of other soil exposures nearby failed to reveal further artifactua1 material. (1xii) TLM 133 The site is located on the south side of the Susitna River, southeast of Watana Creek mouth in the eastern portion of a glaciolacustrine plain in a low-lying ridge and knoll system. The site occurs on a ridge cr~st in a slight saddle formed by the relatively higher ends of the ridge. Immediately to the north of the site, the ground begins to slope steeply down into the Susitna canyon. A small stream flows east of the site. Field of view from the site, which is 1 ocated on one of the most prominent 1 and forms in the vicinity, is panoramic. E-4-93 2.4 -Known Sites in Project Area -Other Areas A single-surface, brown chert projectile point was found on the surface of a lichen mat on a game trail. A test pit placed adjacent to the location of the point, 12 shovel tests on and around the ridge, and examination of soil exposures on the ridge failed to reveal further artifactual material. (lxiii) TLM 134 The site is located on the southern end of a discontinuous ridge west of Jay Creek. The ridge crest descends in an irregular fashion, alternating between sloping and relatively flat areas. The southern end of the ridge is bifurcated by a small swale, and the site occurs on the east-facing side of the eastern half of the bifurcation. While the field of view to the west and northwest is obstructed by forested slopes, to the north rising hilly terrain is visible, as are the lower Jay Creek valley and mineral lick area to the south and east. A compact surface scatter consisting of 3 articula- ting fragments· of a green chert tool was found in a deflated area. Additional surface reconnaissance produced a possible edge-modified gravel. A shovel test near the possible modified gravel and a test pit near the location of the 1 ithic scatter failed to reveal subsurface artifactual material. ( 1 xi v) TLM 135 The site is located on a discrete small 1 inear rise associated with. the southeastern terminus of a ridge which descends tow~rd the west edge of the Jay Creek canyon. The site appears to be primarily oriented toward the south and southwest, overlooking the Jay Creek mineral lick and its approaches. In other directions, the east side of the Jay Creek valley and rising upland topography to the. west and northwest are visible. A surface lithic scatter comp.osed of a basalt corner- notched point and ~basalt fl~kes was collected from a deflated area on the crest of the 1 i near rise. A test pit placed in the vegetation mat adjacent to the deflated area and 5 shovel tests on the feature failed to produce further artifactual material. E-4-94 - ..... -~ - - ~- - - -! - - - r ' - r ! - -I I 2. 4 -Known Sites in Project Area -Other Areas ( lxv) TLI"1 136 The site is located on a small knoll west of the Jay Creek canyon. Field of view from the site is limited to the north by a large hill. The east side of the Jay Greek valley is visible from the site, as are the slopes descending into Jay Creek canyon from the west. During surface reconnaissance, a 2.5-m by 2.5-m (8.3-ft by 8.3-ft) lithic scatter was observed in a cryoturbated soil exposure on the summit of the knoll, from which 1 basalt tool fragment, 1 possibly modified rhyo 1 i te flake, 1 basa 1t flake, 2 rhyo 1 ite flakes, and 3 bone fragments were collected. A test pit excavated northeast of the scatter produced cul- tura~ material from 3 stratigraphic units, including 21 flakes and 65 calcined bone fragments from the Dev i 1 tephra 1 ower contact and the under 1 yi ng si 1 t ; 22 flakes and 5 bone fragments from the Watana tephra; and 6 flakes from a clayey silt 1 ocated bel ow the Oshetna tephra. (lxvi) TLM 138 The site is located on a short kame ridge on the west side of Jay Creek. The sides of the ridge are defined by deep drainage ravines along the south and west sides, while the Jay Cre~k canyon is immediately west of the site. Beyond a slightly lower terrace to the north, the terrain rises and merges with hilly uplands. The site is on a local point of high relief with a panoramic field of vi.ew. A single-surface basalt flake was recovered from the surface of a frost-boi 1 fe'ature. A test pit exca- vated next to the location of the flake, five shovel tests placed on the ridge, and ex ami nation of other soil exposures produced no additional artifactual material. · (lxvi i) TLM 139 The site is located on a broad, flat-topped ridge which parallels the west side of the Jay Creek canyon. The sides of the ridge are defined by the canyon and on the west by the ravine of a small creek. Field of view. from the site includes the east ~ide of the Jay Creek valley, the lower portion of the valley to the south'" and rising irregular terrain grading into hilly uplands to the north and west. E-4.;.~5 2. 4 -Known Sites in Project Area -Other Areas No surface indication of the site was observed. A test pit produced 46 basalt, chert, and rhyolite flakes, and 7 calcined bone fragments from a charcoa-'l horizon below the organic mat and .above (though slightly mixed with) the Devil tephra. In addition, 48 basalt, chert and rhyolite flakes, and a quantity of faunal remains were recovered from the upper portion of a silty matrix underlying the Devil tephra. No other artifactual material was found in 2 shovel tests .placed in the vicinity of the test pit. (1xviii) TLM 140 The site is located on the southern end of a ridge- like erosional feature formed by the west wall of the Jay Creek canyon .and a deeply incised tributary ravine which converges with the canyon from the west. The north end of the rfdge-l ike feature widens · and merges with gradually northward-rising~ undulating terrain. The southern portion becomes constricted to a sharp crest. The site is locate~ in an area ex- tending from the south end to 100 m (330 ft) north on the feature. Surface material consisting of 2 flakes was found within 50 m (165 ft) of site datum on game trails. At site datum, a basalt biface and 4 flakes of 3 material types were recovered; these also occurred on a game trai 1. A test pit at datum produced a basalt bi face and 11 flakes of 3 materia 1 types from beneath the organic mat and above the Devil tephra. No further artifactual material was found on the surface or in 8 shovel tests in the site vicinity. ·( hix) TLM. 141 The site is 1 ocated on a kame terrace on the west side of J-ay Creek. To the east, a tributary ravine defines the margin of the kame and subsequently joins the Jay Creek canyon. Field of view from the site is panoramic, encompassing the tributary ravine and undulating kame topography to the north and south, as well as higher terrain and an intervening marshy pond to the west.. During surface reconnaissance~ 3 flakes were call ec- ted from a small soil exposure. A test pit was exca- vated 5 m (16. 5 ft) west of the exposure and rroduced 50 basalt and rhyo 1 ite flakes, · and 1 bas.a lt bi face fragment at the contact between the organic mat and E-4-96 """" i - - - - - - - """'1 I - - - - - """' i"" 2. 4 -~nown Sites in Project Area -Ot tler Are-as the Devil tephra and from within the Devil tephra. Seven shovel te~ts in the site vicinity and examination of other exposu-res failed to reveal further cultural material. {1 XX) TLM-142 The site is situated on a low knoll n-ortheast of Jay Creek mouth. Surficial geology consists of lacus- trine deposits over glacial till. Other similar undulating knolls are present within a 200-m {660-ft) radius of the site and genera lTy characterize the surrounding terrain. Several small drainages flow east and south from the site area. Northwest of the site are 3 small lakes that are hidden from view by intervening higher topography. Surface reconnaissance produced negative results. Subsurface testing included 5 shovel tests. one of which revealed cultural remains and was expanded into Test Pit I. The cultural unit was isolated as occurring between the Devil and Watana tephras at 4 cmbs to 10 cmbs (I inbs to 4 inbs). Recovered cul- tural remains include several basalt, chert. and quartz flakes, lOpieces of fire-cracked rock; 1 mammal tooth; 8 unburned bone fragments; and I50 burned bone fragments. ( 1 xx i) TLM I43 The site is 1 ocated north of Jay Creek mouth on a broad undulating slope west of the creek at the rim of Jay Creek canyon, just north of a very steep eli ff face above a tight bend in Jay Creek. The site lies on the edge of this canyon, and appears to be con- fined within 50 m of the canyon rim. Jay Creek is easily seen from the site, although it is not easily accessible because of the steepness of the canyon. In the canyon south of the site is a mineral lick; and sign of game, particularly sheep and caribou, is common. A sparse surface scatter of 11thic material was first encountered on the rim of the canyon and edge of the slope. Eighteen flakes, composed of basalt and rhyo- 1 ite, were noted in areas of surface exposures (game trials. frost-boiled areas and places of active down- slope movemeRt). A single test pit was placed on the E-4-97 2. 4 -Known Sites in Project Area -Other Areas southeast end of a small kame. A dense layer of cultural material was encountered in this test pit including two projectile points: one, a complete side-notched point and the other, a lanceolate-shaped point tip. Over 1300 waste flakes, composed of basalt, rhyolite and chert, and over 800 fragments of calcined bone were recovered from the test pit as well. Systematic testing of the ·site included the excava- tion of five 1-m by 1-m (3.3-ft by 3.3-ft) test squares. All five of the test squares produced cul- tural material. Three of the test squares were placed in the location of the reconnaissance test pit. These test squares produced numerous diagnostic artifacts~ including side-notch~d projectile points, end scrapers, and retouched flakes. Thousands of waste flakes and small calcined bone fragments were also recovered. In addition, large fire-cracked rocks, charcoal, and oxidizeo matrix suggested the presence of a hearth feature. While an exact enume- ration of artifacts is not available at this time, at least 2 different components have been identified at the site., The upper component is stratigraphically positioned between a layer of finely sorted organics and. an underlying .fine gray silty matrix (Devil tephra), and the 1 ower is be 1 ow a ye 11 owi sh brown silty unit (Watana tephra). (lxxii) TLM 144 The site is 1 ocated northeast of the mouth of Jay Creek on the west· side of the creek. The site indudes a )rominent elongatedknoll and two smaller circular knolls. The elongated knoll is the highest point of topographic relief between its 1 ocation and Jay Creek and is·an excellent vantage point for observing the uplands down to the Jay Creek rim in the area of a mineral lick. Both surface and subsurface cultural material were recovered during reconnaissance testing. lhree f1 akes were found on an exposure on the knoll crest. Additional surface reconnaissance located a basalt corner-notched 'projectile point on the southern slope of the knoll. A test pit. was p1aced adjacent to the surface exposure, and two fl ak'es and one bone frag- ment were collected from different stratigraphic 1 eve 1 s. · Art if actual materia 1 was a 1 so found in two of five shovel tests placed in· the site area with eight additional flakes recovered. E-4-98 - - .""'i ' - - - ..... ,.,. I r -' .... 2. 4 -Known Sites in Project kea -Other Areas { 1 XX iii ) TLM 145 The site is 1 ocated northeast of the confluence of Jay Creek and the Susitna River on the west side of the creek. It is situated on a ridge which extends eastward from a glaciolacustrine plain toward Jay Creek, with the end of the ridge about 100 m (330 ft) east of the site. The ridge is characterized by steep slopes, making the creek relatively i nacces- sible from the site. In the site vicinity, the ridge slopes at a 4,... to 5-degree angle for a distance of 15m (50 ft). Visibility is obscured by present vegetation. Both surface and subsurface material were present at this site. Surface material .consisted of a lithic scatter located on a game trail. This game trail follows the ridge crest with the surface material confined to an 8-m (26.4-ft) segment. Seven waste flakes· were surface collected. Additional surface material was·observed but not collected. A single test pit placed adjacent to the game trail produced 107 flakes of basalt, rhyolite, and chert in addition to 93 calcined bone fragments. Subsurface artifacts were found within a dark brown surface organic 1 ayer. (lxxiv) TLM 146 ( lxxv) The site is located north of the confluence of Jay Creek with the Susi tna River on the west side of the creek. It is situated on a broad sloping hill that descends to a glaciolacustrine plain. Neither Jay Creek nor the Susitna River are visible from the site; however, their valleys can be seen. A narrow, shallow, clear-water ,stream, which originates at a kett 1 e 1 ake west of the site, passes south of the site and is easiJy access.ible. No surface cu·ltural material was observed at the site. Seven shovel tests were dug during reconnais- sance testing with one of the shovel tests producing a. sing 1 e basa·l t flake with retouch a 1 ong one of its margins.. This shovel test was expanded into a test pit, but no additional artifactual material was found. TLM 147 The site is 1 ocated north of the mouth of Jay Creek on the west side of the creek. It is situated on the eastern portion of a broad, flat terrace which E-4-99 2.4 -Known Sites in Project Area -Other Areas extends about 200 m ( 660 ft) to the northwest and west~ where it merges with undulating kame topo- graphy. The view from the site is only limited in a westward direction where it is partially obscured by a small kame feature. No cultural material was observed on the surface of this site. Five shovel tests were dug, one of Which contained a single rhyolite flake. Further surface reconnaissance and the excavation of a test pit, superimposed over the shovel test vtlich contained the rhyolite flake, failed to locate any additional artifactual material. Two distinct tephras were identified at this site, although the stratigraphic position of the single flake in relationship to these tephra is unknown. (lxxvi} TLM 148 The site 1 s 1 ocated northeast of Jay Creek mouth on the west side -of the creek. It is situated on the northwest corner of a roughly triangular, broad, flat terrace~ which is part of a gradually sloping, undu- lating glaciolacustrine plain north of the Susitna River. Jay Creek canyon~ a tributary valley, and uplands to the north are visible from the site. The view to the west is obscured by spruce forest and intervening hills. A marsh and small creek 100m (330 ft) to the west of the site provide the nearest easily accessible water. Eight shovel tests were dug at the site during reconnaissance testing~ one of which contained 20rhyolite flakes. This shovel test was expanded into a test pit, and 11 additional rhyolite flakes were recovered. These flakes were stratigraphically positioned in a charcoal unit beneath the organic mat~ in a pinkish-gray, fine silt unit (Devil tephra), and at the contact between them. (lxxvii} TLM 149 The site is 1 ocated north of Jay Creek mouth on the west side of the creek. It is situated on a low, crescent-shaped kame knoll which is one of a series of similar kame features on an undulating terrace between Jay Creek and Laha Lake. The knoll is east of Laha Lake and north of a small unnamed creek which provides an easily accessible source of water. Visibility from the site includes similar kame features and upland topography. £-4-100 - - - - - - - - - - - - ..... -I ..... 2.4 -Known Sites in Project Area -Other Areas No cultural material was observed on the surface of the knoll, and only 1 of 4 shovel tests ~aced on the knoll revealed cultural material. This shovel test was expanded into a test pit which revealed 990 small burned bone fragments and 2 small rhyolite flakes. A C-14 sample was collected from this test in associa- tion wi ttl the contact between the Watana and Oshetna tephras. {lxxviii) TLM 150 ( 1 xxi x) The site is located north of the confluence of Jay Creek with the Susitna River in an area of kame ridges and knolls on an undulating terrace between Jay Creek and Laha Lake. The site is situated on a fairly linear r1dge, just southwest of the central high point of the ridge. A small clear-water creek, the outlet stream from a small pond northeast of Laha Lake, flows 100m (330 ft) to the north. From the site, there is good visibility of the rolling kames to the east and nortb. The view south and west is obscured by open spruce woodland and inter'vening topography. No surface artifacts were located at this site during resonnaissance testing. Four basalt flakes were found in a shovel test which was expanded into a test pit. Four additional basalt flakes were encountered beneath the organic layer and protruding into the underlying Devil tephra. In addition, 5 fragments of calcined bone were found within or at the contact of the Watana tephra. The spatial distribution of material in the test pit suggests that the site contains more than one component. Eight addi ti anal hovel tests placed in the site area were negative. TLM 151 The site is located north of Jay Creek mouth in an area characterized by kett 1 e and kame topography on an undulating terrace between Jay Creek and Laha Lake. The kame feature on which this site is situated is approximately 100m (330 ft) in length with the site located on a circular rise on the southwest end. A narrow clear-water stream, which originates at a kett 1 e 1 ake northwest of the site, borders the west side of the kame ridge and provides an easily accessible source of water. Visibility from the site is partially obscured in all directions by open spruce woodland forest • £-4-101 2.4-Known Sites in Project Pr.ea -Other Areas No cultural material was observed on the surface of the kame ridge. ·Fifteen calcined bone fragments were found in a shovel test \'klich was then expanded into a test pit. Five hundred and twenty -one bone fragments and 13 flakes representing 4 different material types were recovered from this test pit. The cultural material was found beneath a soil unit of dark brown finely sorted organics. It is possible that a pit feature is represented within this test pit. No additional subsurface testing was conducted in the 15-m by 6-m (50-ft by 20-ft) level area on \'klich the site is situated. (lxxx) TLM 152 The site is located northwest of the Jay Creek and Susitna River confluence, and east of Laha Lake. It is in an area that is characterized by kettle and kame topography. The site is situated on a prominent . elongate kame feature overlooking 2 kettle lakes. An additional 1 hectar~ kettle lake is located northeast of the site, but is obscured from view by intervening terrain. The view from the site encompasses the entire margin of the lake south of the site in addition to portions of the lake to the west. Six shovel tests were dug on the kame feature. One gray chert flake was found in one of the shovel tests which was· then· expanded into a test pit. The stratigraphy of the test pit revealed 3 distinct . tephra units, although no other artifacts were present. Surface reconnaissance of the site area failed to locate any additional artifactual material. (lxxxi) TLM 154 The site is located north of the mouth of Jay Creek and south of Laha Lake. It is in an area of kettle and kame topography with the site 1 ocated on a kame ridge \\1'\ich is bordered to the south-southeast by a 2-hectare (5-acre) lake. The site is situated on the broad, flat crest of a kame ridge. Vis·ibility from the site is obscured by intervening terrain; however, a panoramic view is available from the top of the ridge about 5 m (16.5 ft) higher in elevation than the site. · An initial shovel test revealed 12 flakes of 2 different material types. This shovel test was expanded into a test pit, and 150 additional flakes E-4-102 - -' - .... - - - - ~~ I I !"'". ..... 2. 4 -Known Sites in Project Pt-ea Other ·Areas (lxxxii) ( 1 XXX iii ) were recovered. The majority of the flakes were of a gray rhyolite,·but material also included quartzite. Six· subsequent shovel tests were placed in the vici- nity of the test pit. A rhyo 1 i te 1 an ceo 1 ate proj ec- tile point was found in one of these shovel tests. In addition, surface reconnaissance revealed 3 rhyo- lite flakes on the surface of the lichen mat. HEA 174 The site is located on top of a 30-m (100-ft) high knoll in glacially scoured terrain at the north- eastern end of Deadman Lake, northeast of the point where Deadman Creek enters the lake. The view from the site is extensive and panoramic overlooking Deadman Lake to the west and Deadman Creek to the south. The one test pit excavated at the site during reconnaissance testing did not produce any cultural material. The artifacts recovered were call ected from the surface of the top, western, and south- eastern slopes of the deflated knoll on which the site is located. Cultural material collected in- cluded: 1 basalt side scraper, 1 basalt blade-like flake, 1 gray quartzite la.nceo 1 ate point, 2 b 1 ack chert end scrapers, 1 black chert scraper fragment, 1 red-brown jasper end scraper fragment, 2 brown jasper retouched flakes, 2 gray chert retouched flakes, 2 gray rhyo THe retouched flakes, 1 gray rhyolite flake, l gray chert flake and 2 quartz flakes. · HEA 175 The site is 1 ocated at the southwest end of Butte Lake and consists of 2 1 oci {A and B) focused around 2 knolls within 200m {660 ft) of the Butte Creek outlet and on a ridgeline running along the west shore of the .1 ake. The vtew from the site includes all of Butte Lake and the uplands to the south, east, and west. Reconnaissance t..est i ng and systematic testing were conducted at the site. Six shovel tests and 2 test pits were excavated during reconnaissance testing and collectively produced 1 sid~-notched point, 1 burina- ted flak.e, 1 point base, 2 possible microblades, 3blade fragments,. 25chert flakes, 13rhyolite flakes, 6 basalt flakes, and 3 microblades. Five 1-m ·by 1-m {3. 3-ft by 3. 3-ft) squares were excavated at E-4-103 2. 4 -Krrown: Sites trt Project Area -Other Areas Locus A during systematic testing al'ld collecthely produced 2 microblade fragments, 1 basalt microb-lade, 1 possible basaTt core tablet, 1 uniface fragment, 1 possible core chopper, 2 side-notched-points, 1 chert biface fragments 1 siltstone retouched flake, 2 retouched basalt flakes, 1 blade-like flake, 1 burin-ated flake, 109 chert flakes, 76 basalt flakes, 9 siltstone flakes, 4 rhyolite flakes, 2 obsidian flakes, 5 quartzite flakes, 94 flakes of undetermined matet~ial type, and 4 bone fragments. Surface artifacts included 1 projectile point base, 1 basalt biface fragment, 1 gray chert flake core, 1 rhyolite uniface fragment, and 1 cryptocrystalline core (possible}. (lxxxiv) HEA 176 The site consists of two loci (A and B) on two kame knolls at the eastern end of Deadman Lake southeast of the point where Deadman Creek enters the lake. The view from either locus is panoramic, encompassing the eastern end of Deadman Lake and the surrounding low relief terrain for 2 to 3 km (1. 2 to 2 mi) in all directions. The one test !}it ex.cavated at Locus A during reconnaissance testing produced a single red chert flake. No sul>stJrface testing was conducted at Locus B wh-ere 1 chalcedony flake and 2 black basalt flakes were call ected from the surface. Surface material collected at Locus A was recovered from 2 different clusters and call ecti vely consisted of 1 gray rhyo 1 ite flake, 4 gray chert flakes, 1 black basalt flake and 1 white chert flake. The red cflert flake from Test Pit 1 at Locus A was recovered from below the Watana tephra, which in this test was located directly on top of glacial drift with no intervening 1 ower tephra. (lxxxv) HEA 180 The site is situated an top of a knoll southeast of the Deadman Lake out 1 et and north of the confluence of Deadman Creek and a northern tributary. The knoll on which the site is located is a dominant high landform in the region providing a panoramic view from the site. The only test pit excavated on the site during recon- naissance testing rroduced 2 chalcedony flakes. The remainder of the cultural material from the site was collected on the surface at 2 different scatters and E-4-104 - ~, - - - - - - - - - - 2.4 -Known Sites in Project Area -Other Areas consisted of the following: Scatter 1--1 gray chert flake, 2 white chert flakes, 1 black basalt flake, 2 ltght gray chalcedony flakes and 1 black chert flake; and Scatter 2-'-1 jas!)er microblade, 1 chert microblade, 1 dark gray: chert microblade fragment, 1 brown obsidian burin spaH, 1 white chert point base, 1 brown jasper flake, 1 red-brown jasper flake, 1 white chert flake, 1 pale red chert flake with retouch, l light red-brown chert flake, 1 red- streaked gray chert flake, 1 b 1 ack-speckl ed white chert flake, 1 pale red rhyolite flake, 1 1 iqht red rhyolite flake, 1 gray-white rhyolite flake, 1 black- flecked chalcedony flake, 2 brown chalcedony flakes, 1 whtte-brown chalcedony flake, 1 white-gray chal-ce- dony flake, 1 clear quartz flake, 1 black basalt flake, and 1 1 ight brown siltstone flake. (1 xxxvi )-HEA 183 (lxxxvi i) The site is 1 ocated on a deflated port ion of a small low knoll northwest of the outlet stream which drains Deadman Lake. The view from the site consists of most ot Deadman Lake, as well as the outlet stream. The only artifact recovered from the site was 1 gray chert flake collected from the surface of the defla- ted portion of the low knoll.' Because of the rocky nature of the area, no subsurface testing was possible. HEA 184 The site is located on a blowout northwest of the outlet stream that drains Deadman lake on the eastern shore of a small 1 ake west of Deadman Lake. The view from the site includes all (}f the small lake west of the site, two thirds of Deadman Lake, and a portion of its outlet stream to the south. The one test pit excavated at the site during recon- naissance testing did not produce any cultural mate- rial. The only artifacts revealed from the site were 2 yellow-brown chert flakes which exhibited retouch and articulated to form a large scraper. (lxxxviti) HEA 185 The site is located on an east-west trending ridge on the west side of Deadman-Lake approximately E-4-105 2.4-Known Sites in Project Area-Other Areas 70 m (231 ft) above the lake. In addition to Deadman ~ake, 3 smaller lakes, Big Lake, and an unnamed · stream are visible from the site. Because of the rocky nature of the site, no subsur- face testing was possible. Artifacts were collected from 2 loci (A and B) and collectively consisted of 2 gray chert flakes, 4 basalt flakes, 1 possible scraper preform and 1 brown chert thumbnail scraper. (lxxxix) HEA 186 The site is 1 ocated on a knoll east of Deadman Lake and is situated primarily on the eastern half of the east-west oriented knoll. The view from the site includes the braided section of Deadman Creek and several small lakes. The one test pit placed on the site during reconnais- sance testing produced 1 black basalt flake. Surface artifacts collected at the site consisted of 1 pati- nated gray chert biface, 1 gray chert projectile point fragment, 2 gray chert blade fragments, 1 gray chert biface fragment, 9 gray chert flakes, 1 white chert flake, 1 black chert flake, and 3 black basalt flakes. (b) Historic Sites {i) TLM 020 The site is located on Portage Creek and consists of an historic inscription dating to 1897, located on a bedrock exposure overlooking the creek. Four names and the date of July 2, 1897, are included in the inscr·iption. Other than the inscription itself, no historic or prehistoric cultural material was observed in the vicinity and no subsurface testing was conducted at the site. ( i i) TLM 056 The site, a partly co-llapsed log cabin, is near the base on Ts usena Butte. The cabin is situated on a gently sloping terrace 4 m (13~2 ft) above the level of the creek west of the creek margin. E-4-106 - - -~ - - - - ,.... - -' , .•. .., - - r I ..... - 2. 5 -Geoarcheol ogy ( i i i) The site consists of a dirt-floored, one room log cabin constructed of unpeel ed spruce 1 ogs with moss chinking. The west wall of the cabin is collapsed. A door opening is present in the south wall~ but the door itself is missing. Few interior furnishings were noted; however, a third of the cabin interior is visible because of the collapsed sod'"covered roof. The general condition of the cabin is poor with the majority of the log members extensively rotted. There was no collection of cultural material at the site. No associated outbuildings were noted; however, a rectangular 1.3-m by 1.8-m (4.3-ft by 6- ft) depression is located southwest of the cabin. A recent tool cache was found 2 m (6.6 ft) east of the cabin under a stand of s~ruce trees. TLM 071 The site was the trapping headquarters of Elmer Simco and was built in the ea~ly 1930s. The site complex is located east of Gilbert Creek, a small tributary of Kosina Creek. The cabin is situated on a low, gently sloping shoreline terrace less than 5 m (16.5 ft} above the creek. The cabin consists of one room 3.6 m by 4.5 m (12ft by 15ft) and has a dirt floor. General condition of the cabin is fair to poor. The cabin contains the remains of the original furnishings and supplies used during the period between 1930 and 1950. Leakage lrom the roof is causing destruction of many interior items. There are three associated outbuildings at the site: an outhouse, a dog kennel, and a grass- covered structure of unknown function. Other associ- ated features at the site include a garbage dump and a woodpile. No cultural material was collected at the site, nor was any subsurface testing conducted. 2.5-Geoarcheology 2.5.1-Introduction G'eoarcheology data were used for selecting survey locales and provided 1 imit ing d.ates for cultural resources on various terrain units associated with the last glaciation. Evaluation of various stratigraphic soil and sediment units, including three volcanic ashes, provided a bas is for evaluating· cultural resources found in relationship to these units. The various aspects of the geoarcheological studies are presented below. E-4-107 2.5 -Geoarcheology 2.5.2-Beoarcheologic Terrain Unit Mapping A preliminary terrain unit map of the project area was prepared in 1980 and has undergone two revisions incorporating the results of field studies. Areas of similar geomorphologic character and surficial age are delineated--information which was useful in the selection and evaluation of survey 1 ocal es. 2.5.3 -Stratigraphic Framework Regional stratigraphic investigation was undertaken with the selection and description of 25 river bluff exposures. Organic samples were collected from four exposures and used to establish a general valley chronology including glacial and depositional history. The stratigraphy of the project area indicates a complicated glacial history with episodes of advance, stagnation, and retreat; formation and drainage of preglacial lakes; and fluvial reworking of glacial sediments. Alluvial deposition, soil development, and tephra falls are also evident. 2.5.4 -Preliminary Glacial-Geomorphologic Mapping General Comments The investigation and mapping of glacial geomorphology in the project area have assisted in the interpretation of the complex glacial history of the project area, which is characterized by the interaction of a number of valley glaciers. The valley glaciers were variable in their patterns of advance, stagnation, and retreat, as evidenced by the location, orientation, altitude, and state of development of moraines; ice marginal meltwater channels; lake shorelines; kame-deltas; and eskers and ice flow indicators. The variation is attributed to particular charac- teristics of the 1 arge ly independent source areas. During periods of intense glaciation~ merging of valley glaciers occurred, resulting in the extension onto the valley bottom of ice lobes. Their subsequent wastage has produced extensive ice stagnation terrain in the project area. 2.5.5-The Last Glaciation Glaciers are interpreted t_o have covered much of the 1 owl and region of the study area during the last major glaciation (late Wisconsin time) which occurred over much of Alaska between 32,000 and 13,000 years BP. The Susitna Canyon area was covered by a complex glacier system that resulted from confluent ice tongues and lobes which behaved as individual units. The distribution of glacial terrain features indicates that following the glacial maximum, 1 obes withdrew at different rates. Moraine morphology gives evidence for glacial retreat fall owed by a series of gl a- cial readvances. Large areas of stagnant ice were present in E-ll-108 - """, - - - ..... - ...... - 2.5 -Geoarcheology most of the broad lowland regions during deglaciation. The stagnant ice may have influenced human movements as 1 ate as 8-10,000 years BP. 2.5.6 -Archeological Stratigraphy Sixteen major stratigraphic units can be recognized throughout the project area. No individual archeological site contains all recognized units, but many have at least ten. In general, the stratigraphy consists of glacially scoured bedrock overlain by a series of volcanic tephra horizons interbedded with weathering horizons and buried soils. A surface organic mat overlies the older sediments. Nonvolcanic eolian sediments occur both as part of the tephra units and as separate subunits betwe~n tephra and organic horizons. In the archeological stratigraphy of the pro- ject area, the contact units are just as, if not more, important as the lithologic units. Sixteen significant intervals of time can be isolated and correlated on the basis of these contact units (figure E.4.5). 2. 5. 7 -Cultural Horizons Nine discrete cultural horizons can be identified at the present time from the regional archeological stratigraphy (Figure E.4.5). These can all be correlated throughout the region. Each horizon can be dated within limits, but the time span represented by components varies from a few hundred years to as much as 7-8000 years. Although a horizon can be identified and correlated and can be dated within 1 imits, there is no proof that cultural materials from the same horizon at different sites are exactly equivalent in age. The volcanic ash/soil sequence provides the framework for this relatively excellent chronology. Cultural horizons were assigned only where there was demonstrable evidence of human occupation that can be related to the regional stratigraphy. Although artifacts were found in all of the units except bedrock, only nine horizons could be firmly documented. Downslope reworking, cryoturbation, human alteration, and root disturbances all serve collectively to displace artifacts from their original contexts. Evidence for human occupation in ubunits associated with the contact units are present. Within any given site, these can be arranged in stratigraphic s s· n, but they were not isolated as horizons or even formal subhori zons because they cannot be correlated regionally. It is probable that many more than nine cultural horizons exist. No one site contains more than four regional cultural horizons, with the exception of site TLM 030 which contains five horizons, one of which occurs in a subunit. l't1ost sites contain one or two regional archeologic horizons. E-4-109 ------~~~----- 2.5-Geoarcheology and History The evolution of the stratigraphic record presented in Figure E.4.5 can be broken into four major intervals which have dif- ferent implications for archeology: (1) the time prior to the last glaciation, represented by Unit 15; (2) the time during the last glaciation, represented by· Unit 14; (3) the time following deglaciation but prior· to d~position of the first recognized . tephra, represented by Unit 13; and (4) the time representing recurrent volcanic ash deposition and soil formation, represented by Units 1 to 12. Eight radiocarbon dates from regional strati- graphic studies and 12 dates associated with the volcanic ash stratigraphy .permit the establishment of a reasonably good chron- . ology for the depositional history of the project area. Deposi- . ti on of the tephra .sequence probably occurred within the last 5000.to 7000 years. Three distinct tephra have been identified in the study area. These units were given regional names for purposes of field identification and nomenclature. Tentative limiting dates and names given the tephra in order of increasing age are as follows: Devil (1800-2300 BP, AD 150-350 BC), Watana (2300-3200 BP, 350-1250 BC), and Oshetna (greater than 4700 BP, 2750 BC). . . . 2.5.9 -Mammoth/Mastodon Fossil Discovery A mammoth/mastodon fossil was found in situ in fluvial gravels at Tyone Bluff. The fossil, representing the ·Shaft portion of a right femur, was identified by R.D. Guthrie and George S. Smith of the University of Alaska, and is the. first documented occur- rence for any terrestial Pleistocene mammals in southern Alaska. It yielded a radiocarbon date of 29,450 + 610 BP, and clearly implies nonglacial conditions .at the time '(Thorson et al. 1982). This discovery indicates that the range of mammoth should be extended about 200 km (120 mi) south 'of its present 1 imit. It also suggests that mountain passes in the Alaska Ra·nge may have been d•egl aci ated during mi d-Wiscons inart time, and that portions of southern Alaska may ·have been· suitable for· human habitation during this time~ · 2.5.10 -Summary of Geologic History The Susitna Valley has been repeatedly inundated with extensive valley. glacier systems that coalesced to form a minor mountain ice sheet. One or more pre-Wisconsinan glaciations have been . recognized. · Much of the present valley was carved to the present river 1 evel. prior to middle Wisconsinan time (31,000 yr BP). · The direction . of drainage at that time is presently unknown. E-:4-110 - - ~I ~""~, -I - - !""'' 2. 5 -Geoarcheol ogy The valley bottom was extensively modified during the last glaciation which began some time after about 31~000 yr BP in the Fog Creek area, and some time after about 22,000 yr BP in the Tyone River region. During deglaciation, large areas were covered with stagnant ice, and meltwater drained freely below the surface, forming complex esker systems. The direct ion of meltwater flow and the presence of till at river level suggests that Devil canyon was carved prior to Holocene time. Glaciers retreated systematically over many areas leaving a number of periodically spaced massive recessional moraines. Deglaciation of the Tyone River region was complete by at least 11,500 yr BP. Because this area was covered by a 1 arge piedmont ice lobe, other areas may have been ice free even earlier. Thus, much of the Susi tna valley may have been deglaciated prior to about 12,000 yr BP. Stagnant i,ce may have persisted for several thousand years over much of the valley floor. During Holocene time, the Susitna River has not greatly deepened its valley in most areas; rather it has widened the valley bottom slightly by lateral planation. Low-level alluvial terraces and tributary mouth alluvial fans have formed in widened portions of the valley. Many small streams tributary to the Susitna have greatly incised their channels during Holocene time~ resulting in steep~ irregular profiles characterized by waterfalls and rapids. Dur·ing the last half of Holocene time, intervals of volcanic ash deposition from distant sources alternated with intervals of weathering, soil formation, and erosion. £-4-111· - I""'' ,. .. I 3 --EVALUJ\TIDN Of ANO IWAC'T DN tllSTORIC AND ARCHEOLOGICAL SITES 3.1-Evaluation of Selected Sites Found: Prehistory and History of the Middle Susitna River Region 3.1.1-IntroductJon Based on the results of this survey, it is probable that no single archeo~ogical site in the middl-e Susitna River area will provjde the basis for defining the 1-blocene cultural chronology for the region~ -Because no single site has preserved the cul- tural ~pectra since late Wis1:onsin deglac~ation, it is necessary to base the culture chronology on a series of individual sites and site components throughout the study area. The 167 archeolo- gical sites docunented during the course of this survey are lJri- marily single component sites. For the purposes of this presen- tati-on, only those sites in which the age of the site, -Or a component, can be docunented with certainty will be used for analysis. The chronological docunentation of sites and compo- nents are primarily bas-ed on tv.o methods: (1) radiocarbon determinations and (2) relative stratigraphic placement in relationship to the three tephra. Typological considerations relating to the chr-anology (not site function) have been con- sidered secondarily, because of the uncertainty associated with this kind of dating and the differing age determinations proposed by many archeoJog ists. The sUes discussed in this application provide only brief glimpses of prehistoric cultural developnent in what are, in many cases, very diverse ecological settings. In all probability the .sites and their various components represent different facets of the prehistoric subsistence cycle. Consequently, what are pre- ~ented as 11 type11 sites and -components for particular cultural l)eriods may in fact not 11 typify11 the material cultural remains during specific cultural historical periods. While these limita- tions are r-ecognized, it is stiU possible to begin to define the basic cultural chronological skeleton while re-alizing that {luring some periods it -may contain a considerable amount of information, and during others, major information may be missing. 3.1. 2 --c-ontemporary Sit-es: 1945 to Present A nunber uf .co-Rtemporary cabins are scattered throughout the study area representing modern recreational use of the project area_, primarily for sports hunting and fishing. Because of the cootemporar y nature of these structures, they have not been in- cluded, disc us sed, or analyzed in this report. S1,.1fftce it to say that contemporary use of the area will ultimately be ~OCI.JTlented in the arc heo 1 og i<:a 1 record. · E-4-113 3.1-Evaluation of Historical Sites. 3.1.3 -Trapping Period: 1920-1945 Four cabins W'lich have been documented as trappers• cabins have been reported in the project area. These cultural· ·remains docu- ment economic use of the area for fur trapping during the 1930s, and in this respect the Sus itna area refl eets many other areas of rural Alaska in that this was a time of relatively high fur prices during a period of international depression. The remains of four cabins dating to this period were-located in the project area. However, the cabinof Elmer Simco (TLM Oll).may be one of the best remaining examples from this period, becau~e most of the household and trapping equipment are preserved intact. 3.1.4 -Exploration/Gold Rush: 1897-1920 Gold was discovered in the Cook Inlet region in 189~, shortly after W'Jich the first major western population expansion into the middle Susitna occurred. No historic sites dating to the gold rush in. the middle Susitna have been discovered in the project area to date. · Because Devil Canyon is not navigable, early explorers/prospectors may have been discouraged in their attempts to prospect the middle Susitna. However, an inscription·near the mouth of Portage Creek documents that William Dickey and three other travelers ascended the river as far as Dev"il Canyon in 1897 (TLI'-1 020). 3.1.5-Athapaskan Tradition: A.D. 1900-A.D. 500 The middle Susitna drainage was occupied by western Ahtna Athapaskans at the time of historic contact. Through implementa- tion of the direct historic approach, it is possible to trace through time Athapaskan occupation of the study area. Several sites in addition to those discussed below may document various periods of cultural historical development throughout this period. However, the subsequent discussion only includes sites subject to systematic testing from which age determinations can be made with certainty. The Kosina Depression Site (TLM 065) was systematically tested and best exemplifies the later phase of this period. The site consisted of the remains of at 1 east one house and several associated cache pits. Stratigraphic profiles from this site clearly indicate that the house postdates the Devil tephra, and the glass trade beads and bottle glass fragments clearly document the structure • s com par at i vely recent age. WhiTe precise dating of the structure is not possible at this time, western trade goods may have penetrated the area as early as the late 1700s, and the site may be reasonably estimated to range in age between the late 1700s and 1900. E-4-114 - - - - - - 3.1 -Evaluation of Historical Sites. A pronounced material cultural trait ~ich occurs at TLi¥1 065 is the high frequency of fire-cracked rock and fractured and burned caribou bone. The rock is characteristi~ally uniform in that it originates from. fist. and sl ightl.Y smaller-sized, smooth, water- worn cobbles. ·It is most probab.le tha·t these cobbles were deli- berately selected for stone boiling; a technique commonly employ- ed.by Native North J!rnericans in the abser)ce of ceramic cooking vessels. This material cultural trait, .coupled with abundant fractured long bone fragments, suggests preparation of marrow "soup~~ and possibly bone grease in birch bark cooking containers. These site attributes are commonly associated With archeological sites througho.ut the Alaskan Interior and through the direct hiS- torie approach have been identified as the remains of prehistoric Athapaskan ~ulture (Plaskett 1977). This common association is characteristic of a number of sites located throughout the course of the archeological· survey. All sites and site components which exhibit this association in a clear .stratigraphic context occur above the Devil tephra and, consequently are younger than A. D. 200. In addition to the Kosina Depression Site (TLM.065) discussed above, these sites are: (1) Component I, Permafrost Creek (TLM 050) ca. A.D. 1670; (2) two and possibly three components at the Tsusena Creek site (TLM 022) which date slighly prior to and subsequent to A.D. 1500; (3) a feature at the Little Bones Ridge site (TLM 059) ca. A.D. 740; (4) Component I at the Red Scraper site (TLM 062) ca. A.D. 570; (5) Component I at the Tsusena site (TLM 097) ca. A.D. 550; and (6) TLM 130 which produced a radiocarbon date on charcoal of A. D. 530 +70. Three additional sites Which have not been subject. to radTometric dating but which exhibit the pronounced as.sociation of fire-cracked cobbles and fractured mammal bone, all occur stratigraphically above the Devil tephra. These are: (1) the upper Watana Creek site (TLM 038); (2) the No Name Creek site (TLM 043); and (3) Component I at the Duck Embryo North site (TLM 048). At two of these sites, No Name Creek and Duck Embryo North, evidence for heat treatment of lithics has been recognized based on the vitreous character of the 1 i thi c debitage. While it may appear dubious to define a cultural period rrimarily on the basis of the association of only two cultural traits, these sites are strikingly similar when viewed collectively, and all are restricted temporally. Another striking similarity shared by these sites is the lack of diagnostic artifact types. However, this may partially reflect the comparatively small samples recovered during testing• The sites suggest intensive reliance on caribou hunting, occasionally moose hunting, intensive use of stone boiling for food preparation, and heat treatment of lithics used for tool manufacture. The sites occur in a variety of ecological locales. Permafrost . Creek, Tsusena Creek, and No Name Creek all occur adjacent to the junction of clear-water tributaries to the Susitna and are E-4-115 3.1 -Evaluation of Historical Sites situated in the valley bottom. The upper Watana Creek site occupies an overlook with a panoramic view to the north suggestive of fall· car·ibou hunting. Duck Embryo North is situated adjacent to a lake outlet possibly indicating expl cita- tion of fish and waterfowl. The Tsusena site (TLM 097) is adja- cent to Tsusena Creek where constricting topographic features funnel large mammal movements past the site. Sites which contain structural remains--Little Bones Ridge, Kosina Depression, and probably Jay Creek (although this site was not subject to sys- tematic testing)--are located in elevated areas which seem to 1 ack. attractive ecological factors (such as rw-oximity to si gnifi- cant bodies of fresh water, panoramic views, constricting land forms, etc.). It is possible that these more substantial sites containing features may reflect prehistoric distribution of caribou rather than other ecological variables traditionally associated with site occurrence. Such obscure site locales may also reflect social variables such as defense or ostracism. Testing and surface features suggest that all sites dating to this time period are comparatively small and probably represent groups of not more than one or two nuc 1 ear fami.l i es or a few hun- ters. Collectively, these sites represent a variety of functions and seasonal occupations which cannot be accurately defined based on the limited results derived from the systematic testing con- ducted to date. It is important to reemphasize that this discus- sion has been limited to only those sites which can be firmly dated, and undoubtedly numerous other sites dating to the Prehis- toric Athapaskan Period exist in the project area. All the sites dating to this period contain faunal remains, and thus, present the possibility for documenting the organic compo- nent of prehistoric Athapaskan material culture, which is cur- rently poorly understood and represented at only a few archeo- logical sites. The diverse types of sites situated in a variety of ecological locales may enable further research to document shifting subsistence and settlement patterns through time. Collectively, these sites are extremely significant, for they hold the potential to define Athapaskan cultural development dur- ing the past 1500 years. This has not been accomplished in Alaska or the Yukon and Northwest Territories, largely because previous research ~ograms have not been able to 1 ocate sites conducive to answering these questions and have lacked the chron- ological controls essential for defining cultural development through time. 3.1. 6 -Chari s/Norton Tradition: ca. A.D. 500 -ca. 1500 B.C. Three archeological sites have yielded artifactual material from stratigraphic contexts which suggest that they may be ascribed to the Choris/Norton tradition. These are Component III at the Tsusena site (TLM 097); the upper component at the Fog Creek E-4-116 - ~ I - - - - - 3.1 -Evaluation of Historical Sites site (TLM 030), which has been radiocarbon dated to 360 B.C. +220 (OIC-1877); and the Left Fork site (TLM 069) which was probably occupied immediately prior to deposition of the Watana tephra. The flakes from the upper component at Fog Creek were unfortu- nately bagged in the field with those from the lower component, thus rendering impossible definition of the 1 itho 1 og ic types associated with this component. However, fine grained s"il icious rock types are represented in this sample and were probably derived from the upper component, while the remainder of the sample is basalt and is probably derived from the lower, Northern Archaic, component. No diagnostic artifacts were recovered from Component I. Component I II at the Tsusena site (TU-1 097) was not subject to radiometric dating, but it is clearly associated with the contact between the Watana and Devil tephras. This component contained 9 fire-cracked rock fragments, 15 waste flakes of rhyolite and tuff, and 65 tuffacious flakes. Although the assemblage does not provide sufficient data to define the Choris/Norton tradition within the project area, it does, when coupled with data from a number of other sites, provide data which strongly indicate the occurrence of this tradition within the middle Susitna region between ca. A. D. 500 and ca. 1500 B. C. The period of occupation of the Left Fork site (TLM 069) remains problematic, but the preliminary data suggest that it probably occurred immediately prior to the deposition of the Watana tephra. Several artifact types suggest that the material cul- tural remains from this site are similar to artifacts typologi- cally associated with the Choris/Norton period in other regions of Alaska. Bone preservation at this site suggests that it was occupied shortly before deposition of the Watana tephra, because bone preservation is comparatively rare in archeological compo- nents predating the Devil tephra in the middle Susitna region. Three additi anal sites (TLM 033, TLM 034, and TLM 053), which have only been subject to reconna-issance testing, indicate cul- tural components between the Watana and Devil tephras; and this suggests that these sites may also be ascribed to this temporal period. In all three sites, no diagnostic artifacts were reco- vered; and the cultural components were defined on the basis of lithic debitage alone. It is important to note that the debitage in all three cases is fine grained cherts or rhyolite, which may be an indicator of this tradition in the middle Susitna region. While it has not yet been possible to unquestionably document diagnostic artifacts dating to this period, several sites in addition to the Left Fork site (TLM 069) in the project area have yielded artifacts characteristic of this tradition. Bacon (1978a) suggested possible Norton influence at TLM 018, based on the occurrence of a triangular trending to pentagonal end blade. Irving (1957) reported the discovery of three obliquely E-4-117 3.1 -Evaluation of Historical Sites pressure-flaked side blades on an overlook near the Tyone River. The artifacts reported by Irving st i 11 represent . the best typological indication of. the Norton/Choris tradition in the middle Susitna. · This critical interval. in non-coastal Alaskan prehistory is poor- ly understood, and the middle Susitna River holds excellent potential for resolving the 111Yriad of rroblems associated with it. Extensive field investigation of archeological components dating to this interval is essential to: (1) document the material cultural remains dating to this period; (2) elucidate settlement and subsistance patterns; and (3) resolve the rroblems associated with the postulated late Denali complex. 3.1. 7-Northern Archaic Tradition: ca. 1500 B.C. -ca. 3000 B.c~ Component IV at the Tsusena site (TLM 097) best documents the stratigraphic placement of the Northern Archaic Tradition within the project area. The stratigraphic position of. this component is clear and is supported by a radiocarbon determination of 2070 +65 B.C. (DIC-2283). This component contained the base of a black basalt, side-notched projectile point, and black siltstone flake core along with 312 flakes of basalt and 16 of rhyolite and tuff. Because side-notched projectile points are the hallmark of the Northern Archaic Tradition, it is reasonable to ascribe it to the Northern Archaic Tradition in spite of the small sample size. The Fog Creek Site (TLM 030) was not subject to systematic test- ing, but did yield reliable data pertinent to defining the Northern Archaic Tradition in the project area. Two components were recognized during reconnaissance testing of the site. The lower component contained a side-notched projectile point along with lithic debitage consisting primarily of black basalt. A radiocarbon determination for this component, which also occurs between the Watana and Oshetna tephra, is 2770 +130 B.C. (DIC-1880). While systematic testing is required to further define and clarify this site, the preliminary data are strikingly similar to that recovered from Component IV at the Tsusena Borrow C site. The Fog Creek site is significant because it not only confirms the stratigraphic placement of the Northern Archaic Tradition in the project area, but further defines the temporal span of the tradition~ Component II, which occurs between the Watana and Oshetna tephras at Tuff Creek North (TLM 027), probably. reflects a Northern Archaic use of this site. Although no diagnostic artifacts were recovered, the lithic debitage is black basalt, the most common lithologic type associated with the Northern Archaic occupation at both Fog Creek and the Tsusena site (TLM 097). The strati- graphic placement of this component between the Watana and Oshetna tephra strongly supports this interpretation. E-4-118 -I ~' ~ ' - - 3.1 -Evaluation of Historical Sites The lower component at TLM 143 produced side-notched points and a radiocarbon determination on charco a 1 · of 2150 B. C. +60 and is clearly associated with the Northern Archaic Traditio.n:-Although no diagnostic artifacts were found . in the lower compon~nt at TLM 128, a rqdiocarbon date (on charcoal from the paleosol on whi'ch the artifacts were recovered) of 2630 B.C. +780 suggests that this component may also represent the Northern Archaic Tradi- tion. Although a number of sites in the project area have yielded side- notched jX'Ojectil e points and other artifact types commonly asso- ciated with the Northern Archaic Tradition, only Fog Creek, the Tsusena site, Tuff Creek North, and Jay Creek have yielded cultur- al horizons that can be dated with a high degr~e of certainty. It is probable thqt Component IV at the Tsusena site is not the latest occurrence of this tradition within the project area and that the lowest component at Fog Creek is probably not the earli- est. Additionally, no artifacts characteristic of the Northern Archaic Tradition have been found either above the Watana or below the Oshetna ,tephra. These data suggest a temporal span between 1500 to 3000 B.C. for this tradition in the middle Susitna region. These data concur with archeological data from other Alaskan arch- eological sites.. The upper Northern Archaic component at the Dry Creek site located near Healy, Alaska, ranges in age between 2400 and 1400 B.C. (Powers and Hamilton 1978), and data from the Tangle Lakes area suggest a similar temporal span for this tradition (West 1975). These and other sites in the Alaskan interior support Workman • s {1978) hypothesis that Northern Archaic Tradi- tion spread through the Yukon Territory and northward along the Brooks Range to the Onion Portage site by 4000 B. C. and later spread into southern interior Alaska. As demonstrated by the Fog Creek, Tsusena, and Jay Creek sites, the study area holds high potential for addressing .critical ques- tions pertinent to understanding the Northern Archaic Tradition. These are: {1) closely bracketing the temporal span during which the middle Susitna was occupied by peoples bearing this tradition; (2) the subsistance strategies and settlement patterns implemented by Northern Archaic_ Peoples; (3) the nature of house forms and other structures associated with this tradition; and most impor- tantly, (4) data essential to explain the rather dramatic appear- ance and disappearance of this technological tradition in the archeological records. The middle Susitna is an extremely criti- cal region for addressing these problems, because various manifes- tations of this tradition, which may lack diagnostic artifacts (such as side-notched projectile points) can be recognized with clarity based on their expected occurrence between the Watana and Oshetna tephras. E-4-119 3.1 -Evaluation -of Histortcal Sites 3.1.8-Amerjcan Pa1eoarctic Tradition: ca. 3000 B.C. -ca. ·9DOO B.C. The 1 owest component at Tuff Creek North (TLM 02 7) best documents the stratigraphic placement of this tradition in the project area. At tt:lis site, Component III clearly rests on top of gla- cial drift and is capped by the Oshetna tephra. The Oshetna tephra was deposited prior to approximately 2700 B.C. and prob- ably daring the interval between 3000 to 5000 B.C. Although no organ~c material suitable for radiometric dating was recove-red from this component, the artifactual mater1al is considerably older than the Oslletna tephra. The littlics rest on and are intermixed witll the upper portion of the glacial drift, and exhi- bit considerable we-athering. Both these factors suggest that they were exposed on the surface for an extended period, possibly several thousand years, prior to the deposition of the Oshetna tephra. The assemblage contains several blocky cores which result from the manufacture of blades, microb 1 a des and bl ade-1 ike flakes. Core rotation is common, and no 11 type 11 core has been identified in the assemblage. In addition to the cores, the assemblage con- tains blade-like flakes, blades, microblades, and waste flakes. Some of the blades and flakes exhibit edge retouch along their margins, which is generally restricted to one surface of th.e specimens. No blfacial stone tools were recovered from Compo- nent III. Admittedly, the sample is small when compared to the estimated spatial extent of the site, but it does suggest strik- ing tec-hnolo~ical similarities to the Ugashik Narrows Phase (-Dumond 1977) on the Alaska Peninsula; Locality 1 at the Gallagher Flint Station {Dixon 1975); and poss~bly the Anangu1a site 1 ocated on an is 1 et ( Ananu 1 i ak Is.) off Umnak Is 1 and in the Aleutians (Aigner 1978). Although radiocarbon determinations are not available from this component, it is not unreasonable to estimate the period of occupation between approximately 4000 to 5000 B.c. based on its stratigraphic occurrence below the -Oshetna tephra~ the advanced degree of weathering exhibited by the lithics, and typological comparison with other Alaskan archeological sites which exhibit similar technological .charac- teristics. Two additional sites {TLM 040 and TLM 048) appear to contain microblade components whic-h occi.lr below the Oshetna tephra, but the re-s-ults of systematic testing at these sites are not conclu- sive. It appears a microblade component is represented in C-ompo- nent II at the Duck Embryo North site (TLM 048) which is probably derived from the contact of the -gl ac i a 1 drift and the Oshetna tephra. However, only a single microblade was recovered along with the lithic debitage, and further work is required to clarify the age~ nature, a-nd extent of this component. At TLM 040, the Tephra site, numerous obsidian microblades and microblade frag- ments were recovered. Although their stratigraphic position E-4-120 - ~I .... - - .... - - ! - - 3.1 -Evaluation of Historical Sites could not be defined with certainty, there is some indication that they may have been deposited below the Oshetna tephra. Although no radiocarbon c:l£terminations are available from either of these sites, future \\Ork will probably succeed in defining their stratigraphic position and hopefully provide organics suit- able for radiometric dating . The m icrob 1 ad es from the Due k Embryo rbrth and Tephra sites appear to be struck from prepared cores and exhibit a uniformity not reflected in the specimens from Component III at Tuff Creek. The morphological characteristics of tl'lese microblades (from TLM 040 and 048) suggest greater technological simiJ arity with specimens commonly associated with the D=nali Complex and may be of the same age. It is not unreasonable to postulate that all these components may be ascribed to the American Pal eoarctic Tradition and probably date to the interval bet\\een 3000 and 9000B.C. It is probable that the blockier rotated blade/micro- blade cores postdate the prepared cores of the Denali complex, and both assemblages appear to deemphasize the manufacture of bifacia1 stone tools, particularly projectile points. The potential of the project area to yield data essential to unraveling many .of the complex problans associated with the American Paleoarctic Tradition is excellent. The potential of the upper Susitna basin to yield data essential to understanding the complex c ul tura 1 dev el opn ents associ a ted with this tract it ion beh.een .the time of deglaciation \12,000 to 9000 B.C.) and ca. 3000 B. C. is excellent. 3.1.9-Early Period: ca. 30,000 B.C.-ca. 2.0,000 B.C. The midsection, or shaft, of the right femur of a proboscidean (probably Mammuthus sp.) was recovered from an ~xpos-ure near the junction of the lyone and Susitna Rivers. A single radio-carbon date run on bone collagen from the femur yielded a date -Of 27,500 +610 B.C. (DIC-1819). This age determinatioll, coupled with addi- Tional dates from the same stratigraphic section, demonstrates that at least some portions of the Upper Susitna were degl aciated during mid-Wisconsin times. The occurrence of the proboscidean fossil also docUTients that at least one of the passes through the Alaska Range was deglaciated during this time. These data indi- cate potential for the discovery of archeological sites dating to this period in the study area. However, no sites dating to this period have been recognized in the project area. 3.1.10-Summary Five major cultural traditions have been docUTiented within the study area which span the past 11, 000 years. These are: (1) Historic 1897 to present; (2) the Athapaskan Tradition -ca. E-4-121 3.1 -Evaluation of Historical Sites 500 A.D. to 1900 A.D.; (3) Choris/Norton Tradition A.D. 500 to 1500 B.C.; (4) Northern Archaic Tradition ca. 1500 B.C. to ca. 3000 B.C.; and (5) the American Paleoarctic Tradition ca. 3000 B.C. to 9000 B. C.? The project area was glaciated between approximately 9000 B.C and 20,000 B.C. and at least partially deglaciated between 30,000 and 20,000 B.C •. Based on the results of the reconnaissance survey and the limited systematic testing of the select archeological sites, the project area holds excellent potential for addressing many long-standing anthropological questions. Three tephras permit stratigraphic carrel ati on between many sites and site components. This pre- sents a uniquely significant opportunity to define the develop- ment of these archeological traditions which has not been poss- ible elsewhere in interior or south-central Alaska. No single archeological site has been found which preserves the cultural chronology from degl ac i ati on to historic times, but the tephra enable cultural development to be traced through time based on comparisons of a series of sites which can be clearly documented to be temporally discrete. Because the first goal of archeology is to define cultural chron- ology, the work conducted thus far has been focused primarily toward this objective. Substantial progress has been made, but clearly considerable additi anal work is essential if this goal is to be fully realized, particularly during the Choris/Norton and American Paleoarctic Tradition periods. Systematic excavation may resolve many of the problems relevant to defining cultural chronology, and probably will provide extremely valuable data essential to interpreting the past lifeways of the cultural groups that occupied the region prior to historic .contact. ·Better understanding of subsistence, settlement patterns, and social /cultural phenomena will result as a complementary product of developing the cultural chronology; and future research stra- tegies should attempt to address these problems. It is already possible to glimpse some of the larger questions which may be addressed as mitigation of adverse impact to cul- tural resources progresses throughout the project area. Some are: (1) defining and explaining the interrelationship between cultural succession, vulcanism and environmental change; (2) resolution of as yet unresolved questions relevant to firmly documenting, or rejecting, the occurrence of a Late Denali phase; and (3) definition and interpretation of the nature of cultural contacts or rapid technological change, which occurred during the periods of transition between cultural traditions. Future mitigation of adverse impact to cultural resources must address these and other problems. The legal requirement mandating the preservation of sites is founded on the knowledge that they hold data which may enable potential explanati.on of such problems. The upper Susitna River region may be one of the best locales known in Alaska to preserve such information and address these significant scientific and humanistic questions. E-4-122 - - - - - - - - - - - - - 3.2 -Impact on Historic and Archaeological Sites 3. 2. 1 -Introduction The level of adverse impact posed by the Sustina Hydroelectric Project on cultural resources is substantial. Consequently, a mitigation effort corresponding to this level of adverse impact is needed to meet mandates of federal and state cultural resource legislation. Mitigation is discussed further in Section 4.1. The magnitude and nature of adverse impact the Susitna Hydro- electric Project will have on specific sites or groups of sites depend on the location of these cultural resources in relation to areas affected by construction, operation, maintenance, overall land modification, and ancillary development of the Sustina Hydroelectric Project and the type of activities which will occur in these areas (Table E.4.1). Three major types of adverse im- pacts to cultural resources have been defined; they are direct, indirect, and potential. Sites directly impacted are those sites which are immediately affected by ground-disturbing activities associated with precon- struction, construction, or operation of the project. These in- clude, but are not limited to, dam construction, access roads, borrow sites, camps, transmission lines, staging areas, air- strips, and reservoirs behind the Devil Canyon and Watana dams. Indirect impacts will result from adverse effects that are secon- dary but clearly brought about by the rroject and which would not occur if the project were not undertaken. Indirect impacts wi 11 occur on sites affected by altered and/or accelerated erosional processes associated with filling of the reservoirs. Secondary land modifications such as altered drainage and accelerated ero- sional processes associated with dam and spillway construction, greater access to remote areas, increased number of rroj ect per- sonnel in the area during and after construction, activities re- lated to project maintenance, and erosion of the impoundment mar- gins resulting from fluctuating water levels--all pose very real, though secondary, threats to cul tura 1 resources (Lenihan et al. 1981). Potential impact is connected with ancillary development which could occur as a result of the project, but which depend on other variables which are unknown at this time. Such variables include future engineering modifications, future recreational use of the area, and increased development along access corridors and impoundment margins. Although the specific impact agent(s) that could impact sites in the potential category are not presently known, impact to sites or groups of sites can be rredicted to occur as a result of expected recreational use of the area and increased development associ a ted with this activity. Potential impact could become direct impact, indirect impact, or no impact depending on how these activities affect the areas containing cultural resources. When the location of all rroject facilities E-4-123 ~2 -Impact on Sites and ·recreational development is known and the cultural resource inventory complete, it will then be possible to identify sites in the potential category that will receive direct, indirect, or no impact. 3.2.2 -Significance To comply with federal regulations, impact analysis of cultural resources is legally required for those sites either listed in or recommended as eligible for the National Register of Historic Places. The eligibility of a site, or group of sites, for inclu- sion in the National Register of Historic Pla.ces is based on the site(s) significance. Therefore, it is firs~ necessary to deter- mine whether the site or group of sites is significant. Determi- nation of signifance is based on the application of National Register of Historic Places criteria which define significance "in American history, architecture, archeology, and culture pre- sent in districts, sites, buildings, structures, and objects of state and local importance that possess integrity of location, design, setting, mater,ials, workmanship, feeling, and association and/or that are associated with events that have made significant contributions to the broad patterns of history; or are associated with the lives of persons significant in our past; or that embody the distinctive characteristics of a type, period, or method of construction; or that represent the work of a master; or that possess high artistic values; or that represent a significant and distinguishable entity whose components may lack individual dis- tinction; or have yielded or may likely yield information impor- tant in prehistory and history" (36 CFR 60). A determination of significance must be based on adequate infor- mation. For this project, a program of reconnaissance level testing was implemented to locate and document sites. In order to generate sufficient data on which to base an evaluation of significance, systematic testing was employed. In most cases (a notable exception being historic cabins), systematic testing is necessary to assess significance. The 21 sites systematically tested all provided sufficient data to address the question of significance, and 20 of these sites appear to be eligible for inclusion in the National Register (see Table E.4.2). Significance itself is a relative term which is used in a his- toric context dependent on the current state of knowledge, method and theory employed, and research questions asked. New techni- ques and methods have enabled archeologists to collect new and different types of data which all ow new questions to be forrnul a- ted and addressed. Although National Register criteria are sub- ject to ongoing modification, significance pertaining to archeo- logical sites generally emphasizes research potential, site integrity, and/or public appreciation. E-4-124 - ~! 1111"1 I ! - - - - ..... - - -I I 3. 2 -Impact on Sites Although all the sites 1 ocated as a result of this study are related geographically and temporally, the exact relationships await further study. Most of the sites were found associated with one or more of three tephras which provide limiting dates in a restricted geographic context and provide a unique and scienti- fically important opportunity to construct the first cultural chrono 1 ogy for the middle Sust ina River valley. Armed with this information, it is possible to state that all sites (with the exception of TLM 033) found to date in the study area are likely significant and collectively hold the potential for defining the prehistory for this region of Alaska and, therefore, may be eligible for inclusion in the National Register of Historic Places. Based on all data collected to date, a preliminary cultural chronology has been developed (see Section 3.1). Significance must be assessed on the basis of adequate data. Only 21 of the sites located and documented during the three field seasons have been systematically tested and adequate data are available from these 21. Evaluation of specific site signi- ficance for the remaining sites must await systematic testing. Hm'lever, because a majority of the sites occur in relation to three tephra, it is possible to consider the collective signifi- cance of all sites for delineating the prehistory and history of the middle Susitna River valley. From this perspective, all sites located to date (with the execption of TLM 033) appear to qualify for the National Register of Historic Places. Given this level of significance, it may be appropriate to evalu- ate these sites in terms of National Register el igib"il ity as an archeological district because of the unique opportunity the known sites in this area (as well as yet undiscovered sites) have for addressing questions concerning the prehistory of a large portion of interior Alaska which is presently not well defined. If a nomination of this type is made, it should be done in concert with the State Historic Preservation Officer and the FERC. 3.2.3 -Watana Dam and Impoundment Two historic sites and 28 archeological sites were located and documented in areas to be impacted by the Watana Dam and its impoundment. The two historic sites (TLM 079, TLM 080) will be directly impacted, as will the 28 archeological sites (TLM 017, TLI~ 018, TLM 026, TLM 033, TLM 039, TLM 040, TL:-1 042, TLM 043, TLM 048, TLM 050, TLM 058, TLM 059, TLM 060, TLM 061, TLM 062, TLM 063, TLM 064, TLM 065, TLI"l 072, TLM 073, TLM 075, TLM 077, TLM 102, TLM 104, TLM 115, TLM 119, TLM 126 and TLM 137). 3.2.4 -Devil Canyon Dam and Impoundment One historic site and six archeological sites are presently known in areas to be impacted by the Devil Canyon Dam and its E-4-125 3.2 -Impact on Sites impoundment. The one known historic site (TLM 023) and the six archeological sites (TLM 022, TLM 024, TLM 027, TLM 029, TLM 030, TLM 034) will all be directly impacted. 3.2.5-Proposed Borrow Sites, Associated Facilities, and Sites Disturbed by Geotechnical Testing Seven archeological sites are presently known in the portions of the proposed borrow sites ex ami ned to date (A, B, D, E, F, G), and areas disturbed by geotechnical testing. One site will be directly impacted (TLM 035); two sites have the potential of being impacted (TLM 068, TLM 070); and it appears that four sites wi 11 not be impacted because of their distance from expected impact areas (TLM 082, HEA 177, HEA 178, HEA 179). Additional potential borrow sites have been identifed {H, I, J, K) and another expanded {F) which remain to be examined for cultural resources. Sites that fall within both an impoundment area and a potential borrow source are included under the appropriate impoundment section. Proposed borrow sites I and J are 1 ocated within expected impoundment areas. 3.2.6 -Proposed Access Routes Survey of the proposed access route was cursory, and additional survey of the proposed route and associated borrow areas is re- quired to adequately cover the area. It is likely that numerous additional sites will be located during continued survey of the access route which is scheduled for 1983. Five archeological sites are presently known along the selected access corridor and/or associated with proposed borrow sites associated with this corridor. All five sites will receive in- direct impact (TLM 051, TLM 101, TLM 103, TLM 114, and TLM 155). 3.2.7-Proposed Transmission Corridors Transmission 1 ine corridors were selected very late in the pro- ject. The section from the proposed Watana dam was selected after the 1982 field season and consequently has not been surveyed. Segments of the transmission corridors from Anchorage to Willow and Healy to Fairbanks were examined at the preliminary recon- naissance level. However, continued survey is required to adequately cover these proposed corridors as well as the newly selected portion. No sites are presently known for the portion of the transmission corridor from Anchorage to Willow. Reconnaissance level survey of the Healy to Fairbanks portion of the corridor and examination E-4-126 - - - - - - - - .... - - - 3.2 -Impact on Sites of the files in the Alaska Office of History and Archaeology document thirteen sites within the proposed corridor. Unti 1 the exact location of the route is known including access roads, tower placements, etc., all of these sites have the potential of being impacted (FAI 213, FAI 214, HEA 026, HEA 030, HEA 035, HEA 037, HEA 038, HEA 080, HEA 083, HEA 119, HEA 137, HEA 210, TLM 112). When plans for the transmission corridors are fina- lized and the cultural inventory complete, it will then be poss- ible to determine the effect of this portion of the project on cultural resources. 3.2.8 -Other Portions of the Study Area Three historic sites and 102 archaeological sites are known in this area. Two historic sites (TLM 020, TLM 071) and 24 archaeological sites (TLM 015, TLM 016, TLM 038, TLM 098, TLM 099, TLM 100, TLM 105, TLM 109, TLM 110, TLM 111, TLM 113, TLM 117, TLM 120, TLM 121, TLM 130, TLM 133, TLM 143, TLM 145, TLM 153, HEA 174, HEA 176, HEA 180, HEA 183, HEA 184) will be indirectly impacted. One historic site (TLM 056) and 74 of the archaeological sites have the potential of being adversely impacted by the project (TLM 021, TLM 025, TLM 028, TLM 031, TLM 032, TLM 036, TLM 037, TLM 041, TLM 044, L TM 045, TLM 046, TLM 047, TLM 049, TLM 052, TLM 053, TLM 054, TLM 055, TLM 057, TLM 066, TLM 069, TLM 074, TLM 076, TLM 078, TLM 081, TLM 083, TLM 084, TLM 085, TLM 086, TLM 087, TLM 088, TLM 089, TLM 090, TLM 091, TLM 092, TLM 093, TLM 094, TLM 095, TLM 096, TLM 097, TLM 106, TLM 107, TLM 108, TLM 116, TLM 118, TLM 122, TLM 123, TLM 124, TLM 125, TLM 127, TLM 128, TLM 129, TLM 131, TLM 132, TLM 134, TLM 135, TLM 136, TLM 138, TLM 139, TLM 140, TLM 141, TLM 142, TLM 144, TLM 146, TLM 147, TLM 148, TLM 149, TLM 150, TLM 151, TLM 152, TLM 154, HEA 181, HEA 182, HEA 185, HEA 211). It appears that the remaining four sites wil 1 not be impacted by the project (TLM 007, TLM 067, HEA 175, HEA 186). ~though 79 sites in this category are presently located outside expected direct and indirect areas, they could be impacted de- pending on future developments associated with the Susitna Hydro- electric Project. At present, they should be avoided. However, if and when it is determined that these sites will be either directly or indirectly impacted, it will then be necessary to mitigate this impact. When final plans for the project, includ- ing recreational activities, are available, it may then be poss- ible to determine specific sites that will not be impacted by the Susitna Hydroelectric Project. E-4-127 - - """"I - - - - - - - - f""' I ' - 4 -MITIGATION OF IMPACT ON HISTORIC ANO ARCHEOLOGICAL SITES 4.1 -Mitfgation Policy and Approach Federal regulations require that the effect of any federal J::K'Oject or federally 1 icensed J::K'Oj ect on cultural resources must be assessed and mitigation measures developed to lessen or avoid the impact on those resources 'tn, or determined to be eligible for inclusion in~ the National Register of Historic Places. Mitigation measures are manage- ment tools ~ich J::K'OVide options when making decisions regarding the preservation or reduction of impact to cultural resources. Although the concept has undergone and is presently undergoing refinement, it clearly consists of three options: avoidance, preservation, and investigation (data recovery). 4. 1. 1 -Avoidance Avoidance consists of any measures that avoid adverse effects of a J::K'Oject on cultural resources. Avoidance in and of itself may not be totally effective if not coupled with a monitoring program that will insure that a historic or archeological site protected from the immediate adverse effect (direct or indirect impact) of the project is not inadverten.tly damaged in the future as a result of the project (potential impact). For the Susitna Hydro- electric Project, potential damage may result from, but is not limited to, operation of the facilities, increased access to remote areas, recreational activities, private development, and the transfer of lands from federal and state governments to cor- porate or j::K'ivate parties. Therefore, avoidance must be consi- dered in terms of long-range and short-range goals aimed at pro- tecting cultural resources beyond the immediate construction phase of the dam and its ancillary facilities. 4.1.2 -Preservation Preservation is any measure that results in the reduction or avoidance of impact on cultural resources through physical main- tenance or protection aimed at preventing further deterioration or destruction. Preservation, as with avoidance, implies both short-term and long-term measures. ?reservati on may consist of stabilization and reconstruction, as well as preservation of a site by constructing a barrier around the site, patrolling and monitoring the site, public education, or the establishment of an archeological j::K'eserve. Of all the preservation options avai 1- able for the Susitna Project, monitorfng may have the greatest potential for long-term preservation of not only a particular site or group of sites but for cultural resources in general. E-4-129 4.2-Mitigation Plan 4.1.3 -Investigation (Data Recovery) Investigation refers to a prob 1 em-orientated data recovery pro- gram aimed at collecting and conserving archeological data in a scientific manner. A .program of this type means that data re- covery procedures are developed for each site or group of sites, analysis of materials is undertaken, and the results are dissemi- nated to professional and public audiences. In addition to investigation as a method of avoiding adverse. impact, a site(s) could be investigated (excavated) either partially or in whole if a site(s) appears to fit the research needs of the overall cul- tural resource management program; if a site(s) may conta.in information critical to the larger mitigation program; or if a site(s) cannot be protected from indirect or potential impact such as increased off-the-road traffic, increased recreati anal use, an increase in the number of people in the area, or in¢reased site visibility. It is recommended that sites actually investigated on this project be selected on the basis of systema- tic testing and the recommendations of the SHPO and the NPS. 4.2 -·Mitigation Plan Any mitigation plan must be based on an evaluation of project impact on the total resource, including known and undiscovered sites. Therefore, because only a portion of the area to be impacted by the Susitna Hydro- electric Project has been surveyed and investigated, any mitigation plan lllust include a program to examine the entire surveyable area and mitigate adverse effects on all sites on, or eligible for, the National Register of Historic Places. This program is designed to be completed in two years allowing submittal at this date to FERC prior to final review of the application. Mitigation of any adverse impact to cultur- al resources must await approval of the license application as well as approval by the state of Alaska to actually construct the hydroelectric facilities. Mitigation jroposed here will apply to sites located and tested in the future as well as the sites presently known. Upon completion of· the cultural resource inventory and systematic testing, a detailed site-specific management plan will be prepared in consultation with FERC, the SHPO, and the appropriate land managing agencies, and filed with these agencies. 4.2.1 ~Details of Plan The highest i)"iority for mitigating adverse impact to cultural resources associated with the Susitna Hydroelectric Project is first to complete the archeological and hi.storical survey and thus J:rOVide a complete inventory of cultural resources. Por- tions of the impoundment areas, the access corridor and asso- ci a ted borrow pits and haul roads, as well as the transmission corridors between Healy and Fairbanks, Anchorage and Willow, and the Watana damsite and the interti e, have not been subject to thorough on-the-ground survey and subsurface testing. There- E-4-130 - - - - - - - - - - 4.2 -Mitigation Plan fore, completion of. the reconnaissance and systematic surveys is necessary. As sites are documented during the course of the survey, they will be classified into one of the three impact categories: (1) direct impact, (2) indir.ect impact, and (3) potential impact (see Section 3.2 for definitions). Sites subject to either direct or indirect impact should be investigated to assess their eligibility for inclusion in the National Register of Historic Places (Table E.4.2). To accom- plish this goal, these sites will require systematic testing (for a thorough discussion of systematic testing procedures see Chapter 2 in Dixon et al. 1982a). The objective of systematic testing is to obtain sufficient data to assess the spatial limits, stratigraphy, relative age, and possibl.e cultural affiliation of a specific archeological site. These data are essential to assess the ability of a site to yield significant scientific information, which is a necessary criterion for determining the signficance of cultural resources under the Advisory Council guidelines as stated in Procedures of the Advisory Council on Historic Preservation, 36 CFR 800. Following systematic testing, each site will need to be evaluated to determine wtlether it can provide data relevant to the three major goals of North American archeology: (1) establishment of cultural chronologies; (2) definition of past lifeways; and (3) explanation of cultural process. If, following systematic testing, a specific site is found to hold no potential to address any of these three fundamental scientific questions or research topics (Ad\(isory Council on Historic Preservation 1980) it will be determined not significant and thus probably not eligible for inclusion in the. National Register of Historic Places. Should a determination of nonsignificance be made, no further mitigation efforts should be required. This has already proven to be the case with one site, TLM 033. Those sites found to hold potential to address humanistic, his- torical, and/or local-interest research questions should be determined significant and thus be considered eligible for inclu- sion in the National Register of Historic Places. The mitigation measure recommended. for these sites should be preservation of information through systematic scientific excavation. This determination should be made in concert with .the SHPO. The pre- servation of these sites through investigation (excavation) should be prioritized based upon the immediacy of the threat of adverse impact to each specific site. Thus, in general terms, those which occur in locales slated for construction should be removed through excavation prior to those within the impoundment areas. Within the impoundment areas, sites at lower elevations would receive priority· above those at higher elevations. Such a prioritization should minimize potential conflicts between cul- tural resources and construction schedules. E-4-131 4. 2 - M i t i gat i on P 1 an The mitigation measure recommended for all sites falling within the potential impact category is avoidance. For those sites sub- ject to potential adverse impact (Table E.4.2), a monitoring plan should be. developed in concert with the appropriate land manag- ing agencies (state and federal). The monitoring program should, at minimum, establish a photographic record of each site on a predetermined schedule; should any adverse impact resulting from activities of the Susitna Hydroelectric Project occur, it should be documented. Shaul d any particular site or group of sites experience adverse impact as a result of the project, the appro- priate mitigation measure for that particular circumstance should be applied. The monitoring program should be continued through- out the course of the project on an annual basis until the hydro- electric facility is operational. At such time, the monitoring program should become the responsibility of the appropriate land managing agency. Coupled with the monitoring program will be an educational pro- gram for construction and other project personnel, which empha- sizes the necessity to avoid cultural resources in and adjacent to the project area. Such a program should stress the. importance of the scientific information the sites contain and should dis- courage 1 oot i ng and artifact co 11 ect i ng. Analysis of the sites found in 1980 and 1981 and preliminary analysis of the sites located during the 1982 field season as well as sites on record in the Alaska Office of History and Archeology are tabulated in Tables E.4.2 and E.4.3. Of the known sites, 70 will be directly or indirectly impacted, and 84 have the potential of being impacted. Based on available data, it appears that 8 sites wi 11 not be impacted by the project. How- ever, this is a preliminary evaluation based on the fact that these sites are some distance from expected impact areas. Of the 167 sites presently known, 21 have already been systemati- cally tested. Forty-nine additional sites will require systema- tic testing to determine their eligibility for inclusion in the National Register. Systematic. testing is recommended for only those sites that have been determined to be directly or indirect- ly impacted by the project. for those sites on federal or state lands which will not be directly or indirectly impacted by the project, the cultural resource policies of the appropriate agency should be applied. 4.2.2 -Schedule Both state and federal regulations mandate that all cultural resources within the project boundary be considered. Si nee only £-4-132 - - .... - ~i - - .... - I""'" I -I - - """" I I l - - 4.2 -Mitigation Plan a portion of the total project area, the configuration of which is still undergoing modification, has been examined for archeolo- gical and historical sites, it is essential that reconnaissance level testing continue in order to document cultural resources in the immediate project area given the present 1 evel of technology. In addition, systematic testing is required to address the signi- ficance of these sites that will be directly or indirectly impacted and to determine their eligibility to the National Register. Systematic testing should, therefore, also continue for sites that wi 11 be directly or indirectly impacted. Based on the field work completed to date, the large number of sites known (167), and the portion of the study area actually surveyed, it is anticipated that many additional sites remain to be discovered. Most of these sites wi 11 1 ikely be subsurface in nature and found by subsurface testing techniques. Based on this information, it is anticipated that two additional field seasons of reconnaissance level survey are needed to adequately examine the entire surveyable portion of the study area for cultural re- sources. In addition to locating and documenting cultural re- sources, it will be necessary in most cases to conduct systematic testing in order to generate sufficient data on which to deter- mine site size and content and to evaluate significance. Sys- tematic testing requires that a grid be surveyed over the site, maps prepared, and testing units systematically excavated using standard archeological methods. To date, only 21 of the sites have been systematically tested. Systematic testing of the 49 remaining sites and an estimated 25 additional ones, located as a result of continued survey, is estimated to take two field seasons. The time actually necessary to test "new" sites can only be estimated following completion of the cultural resource inventory. In order to complete the inven- tory and systematic testing prior to completion of the license application review period, it is recommended that this work take place in 1983 and 1984. Continued reconnaissnce level testing and systematic testing can take place during the same two-year period. The following work schedule is recommended for the two-year program discussed above. Work recommended for the 1983 field season is as follows: 1) complete the reconnaissance survey of the proposed access roads, railroad, Watana and Devil Canyon damsites, construction camp areas, associated impact areas, and reservoir.s, i ncl ud i ng the resurvey of defined 1 ocal es that have the potential for containing sites; 2) completion of aerial reconnaissance survey and on-the-ground reconnaissance survey as necessary to complete sensitivity maps of all proposed transmis- sion corridors and recreation fac"il ity sites as may have been E-4-133 4.2 -Mitigation Plan defined, indicating the potential of these areas for containing archeological and historical sites; 3} completion of reconnais- sance survey or any additional direct impact areas that may be defined prior to the 1983 field season; 4} completion of systema- tic testing of archeological and historical sites in direct im- pact areas for the access road and railroad, the vicinity of the construction camp areas, and the proposed Watana and Devil Canyon damsites and associated facilities. For sites located in these areas late in the 1983 field season, it may be necessary to con- duct systematic testing in 1984; and 5) survey of areas selected for geotechnical testing. Recommended work for the 1984 field season includes: 1) comple- tion of systematic testing of sites in the reservoirs; 2) comple- tion of reconnaissance survey along the transmission corridors, recreation facility sites, and other areas as necessary; and 3) comp 1 et ion of systematic testing of sites in these areas as may be necessary. In addition to a program to find and evaluate additional sites in the project area, mitigation measures must be implemented for those sites determined to be eligible for the National Register that wi 11 be adversely affected by the project if it is approved and a decision to build the dam is made by the state of Alaska. It is estimated that mitigation will take approximately five to seven field seasons to complete, depending on the number of addi- tiona 1 sites discovered and the number that will require i nvesti- gation or preservation. The amount of time the entire process would take depends on several factors: (1) the number of addi- tional sites found, (2) the number of personnel involved with the project, and {3) the funding level. It is possible to shorten the time frame by increasing the number of people involved. How- ever, it should be stated that the cost of increasing personnel levels increases exponentially as logistic, supply, equipment, and additional management 1 evel s increase. If clear cutting of the impoundment areas or other subsurface disturbing activities take place, the above schedule will have to be adjusted to accommodate the expected timetable of these activities. In summary, it is anticipated that reconnaissance testing needed to complete the inventory will take two field seasons; systematic testing needed to determine significance and eligibility to the National Register of Historic Places, two field seasons; and mitigation, five to seven field seasons, all of which could run concurrently. All estimates depend on the number of additional sites found in· the untested portions of the project area. E-4-134 - - - -' - - - ,.. .. ..... - 4.2 -Mitigation Plan 4.2.3-Cost Based on available information, the preliminary cost estimates for the cultural resource program· previously discussed are pre- sented below. It should be mentioned that original estimates (1981) for completing the cultural resource inventory and the necessary systematic testing were four years and five years, respecttvely. The following cost estimate is based on rearrang- ing these programs into a two-year format in order to complete the work during the license application review period and a modi- fication of the systematic testing program based on more recent data concerning impact of the hydroelectric project on cultural resources. It is estimated that continued reconnaissance aimed at completing the cultural resource inventory and systematic testing aimed at determining significance and eligibility to the National Register will cost $2,391,552. The survey portion of this amount is based on the approximate 10-15 percent remaining to be surveyed in the Devil Canyon impoundment, the 50 percent remaining to be surveyed in the Watana impoundment, and complete survey of the trans- mission corridors, access roads and railroad, and other areas as necessary. The systematic testing portion of this amount is based on the 49 sites presently requiring testing and an estima- ted 25 11 new 11 sites that would likely result from continued sur- vey. This estimate is exclusive of air logistics, food, and camp faciities for archeological personnel. It is anticipated that, for the two years of continued reconnaissance and systematic testing a staff of 45 people will be required. The determination of the actual costs of any mitigation program for the Susitna. Hydroelectric project must await completion of the cultural resources inventory systematic testing to determine which sites are in direct or indirect impact areas and eligible for inclusion in the National Register of Historic Places and the recommendations of the State Historic Preservation Officer, all of which will indicate how many sites will actually require investigation or preservation. A preliminary cost can be estimated based on the number of sites documented to date (167); the known sites which fall within present direct and indirect impact areas (70); the number of sites which appear to qualify for inclusion in the National Register, based on systematic testing conducted to date (20 of the 21 sites tested); and an estimated 80 additional sites that could be located as a result of continued survey. If the target is 100 percent recovery of significant sites, it is estimated that a program taking into consideration the above factors would E-4-135 4. 2 - M i t i goat ton Pl art require approximately ten full-time personnel and 35 part-time personnel working five to seven years to complete:. at an esti- mated cost of $8 mi1lion not including logostic support. These figures are preliminary and will be adjusted as information con- cerning tfte number of sites requiring investigation or preserva- tion is determined. 4. 2. 4 -Statement of Sources and Extent of Financing Funding for cultural resource studies is the responsibility of the Power Authority. The Jlrcheological Conservation Jlct of 1974 {Public Law 93-291) authorizes that up to one per centum of the total amount of a dan project may be spent on cultural resource studies, including analysis and publication. E-4-136 - - - - - - ,, .. , 5 -AGENCY CONSULTATION 5.1 -Consultation Methods For all federally funded or 1 icensed projects, or projects on federal lands, it is necessary to obtain a federal antiquities permit. Formal application, including vitas of individuals in general and direct charge, was made to the National Park Service and the necessary permits obtained for 1980, 1981, and 1982. rn additi-on to federal permits, state antiquity permits were obtained for state-selected land within the study area. · The State Historic Preservation Office, the State Archeologist, and archeologists with the National Park Service {Alaska) have been con- sulted concerning the research design and the mitigation plan. Consul- tation was both written and oral. Copies of the report on the 1980 and 1981 field seasons were reviewed by the Alaska SHPO and the National Park Service. 5. 2 -Summary of Comments Comments concerning the federal antiquities permit applications were in the form of stipulations to the permits by the National Park Service, Bureau of Land Management, and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (no lands managed by the u.s. Fish and Wildlife Service are included in the Susitna Project area). These comments specified the conditions of the permit (see Appendix 4.A). 5.2.1-Research Design The research design and strategy were reviewed by the Alaska SHPO, the State Archeologist, and the National Park Service and found to meet project needs and professional standards. It is their opinion that the research conducted to date is thorough and well documented and constitutes an excel Tent pre1 imi nary cultural resource program, but that continued reconnaissance testing of areas not covered during 1980, 1981, and 1982 must be undertaken to locate as many sites as possible given present technology and that systematic testing should continue to further evaluate sites and provide data on \'ttlich to base significance, determine el igi- bility to the National Register, assess effect, and determine the appropriate mitigation measures. In addition, they recommended that archeological clearance continue for any activities that may impact cultural resources in the study area throughout the pro- ject. Letters addressing the resear.ch design are included at the end of this section of the application. 5.2.2 -Mitigation Plan The Alaska State of Historic Preservation Officer and the Alaska State Archeologist concur with the proposed mitigation plan. Review of the mitigation plan by the National Park Service i.s pend1ng. When received, NPS comments will be forwarded to FERC. E-4-137 (J If-liT i:s "!rr~ Stfl7'~-<.s 6>f €Jv..£ CoM.~fi?. • - - ~I ~I I~ - - ,..., - - REFERENCES Advisory Council on Historic Preservation. 1980. Treatment of Archeological Properties: A Handboook. Ager, T.A. 1975. Late Quaternary Environmental History of the Tanana Valley, Alaska. Report 54. Ohio State University Institute of Polar Studies. Columbus, Ohio. Aigner, J.s. 1978. The Lithic Remains from Anangula, an 8500-Year-Old Aleut Coastal Site. 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Early Notched Point and Related Assemblages in the Western American Arctic. Manuscript. University of Alaska Museum. Fairbanks, Alaska. 1968c. Archeology of the Northwestern Arctic. Manuscript. Brown University. Providence, Rhode Island • • 1970. Microblade Traditions in Northwest Alaska. Arctic --.,..Anthropology 7(2). Andrews, E.F. 1975. Salcha: An Athapaskan Band of the Tanara River and Its Culture. M.A. Thesis. Department of Anthropology, University of Alaska. Fairbanks, Alaska. Arctic Environmental Information and Data Center. 1975. Alaska Regional Profiles: South-Central Region. L. Selkregg (editor). University of Alaska. Anchorage, Alaska. Arndt, K. 1977. Structure of Cache Pits at GUL-007, a Late Prehis- toric Archeological Site near Gu.lkana, Alaska. M.A. Thesis Department of Anthropology, University of Alaska. Fairbanks, Alaska. Bacon, G. Personal communication. Unversity of Alaska Museum. Fairbanks, Alaska. --= (Editor). 1975a. 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Research Summary: 1977 Investigations of the Carlo Creek Archeological Site, Central Alaska. Prepared for the University of Alaska Museum. Fairbanks, Alaska. • 1978b. Geology and Archeology of the Carlo Creek Site, and ---.=-Early Holocene Campsite in the Centra 1 Alaska Range (Abstract). In: Abstracts of the 5th Biannial Meeting, American Quaternary ASsociation, Edmonton, Canada. 1979. Geology and Archeology of the Carlo Creek Site, an Early Holocene Campsite in the Central Alaska Range. In: Abstracts of the 5th Biannual Meetings, American Quaternary Association. Edmonton, Canada. Brooks, A.H. 1973. Blazing Alaska•s Trails. Second edition. University of Alaska Press. Fairbanks, Alaska. Clark, G.H. 1974. Archeological Survey and Excavation Along the Southernmost Portion of the Trans-Alaska Pipeline System. Final report. Prepared for the Alyeska Pipeline Service Company. Anchorage, Alaska. Clark, G.H. 1976. Archeolo ical Survey and Excavations in the River Basin, 1974 MS • Paper presente at the 3r Annua of the Alaska Anthropological Association, March 26-27. Anchorage, Alaska. Copper Meeting - - -r ..... - ..... CLIAMP. 1976. The Surface of the Ice-Age Earth. Science. VolllTie 171. Cole, T. 1979. The History of the Use of the Upper Susitna River, Indian River to the Headwaters. Prepared for the state of Alaska, li!partment of Natural Resources, Division of Research and Dev e lo pnent. Cook, J.P. 1969. The Early Prehistory of Healy Lake, Alaska. Ph .D. Dissertation. University of Wisconsin. Madison, Wisconsin. Cook, J.P. and R.A. fvt:Kennan. 1970. The Village Site at Healy Lake, Alaska: an Interim Report. Paper presented at the 35th annual meeting of the SOciety of Jlmerican Jlrcheology. Mexico City, Mexico. Cook, J. S. 1975. A New Authentic and Complete Collection of a Voyage Round the World Undertaken and Performed by Royal Authority. George W1lliam Ailderson, eo. 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U.S. Geological Survey 0 pen-F i 1 e Report 78-588-A. deLaguna, F. 1975. The Archeolo~ of Cook Inlet, Alaska. Second Edition. Alaska Historical ciety. Anchorage, Alaska. Denton, G. H. 1974. Quaternary Glaciations of the White River Valley, Alaska, with a Regional Synth'esis for the Northern St. Elias Mountains, Alaska and Yukon Territory. Geol. Soc. America Bull. 85 . Denton, G.H., and W. Karlen. 1973. Holocene Climatic Variations- Their Pattern and Possible Cause. Quaternary Research. 3 Dixon, E. J~ 1975. The Gallagher Flint Station and Early Man Site on the North Slope-Arctic Alaska and Its Role in Relation to the Bering Land Bridge. Arctic Anthropology. Volume 12, 1\b. 1 Dixon, E.J., Jr., G.S. Sllith, and D.C. Plaskett. 1980a. Archeological Survey and Inventory of Cultural Resources, Ft. Wainwright, Alaska. Final report. University of Alaska Museum. Fairbanks, Alaska.-Prepared for Department of the Jlrmy, Alaska District, Corps of Engineers under contract DACA85-78-0047. . 1980b. 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Mercury Series No. 74. National Museum of Can ada. Ottawa. - -' - -: ' - l -] Watana Dam and Impoundment Uirect TLM 017 Impact TLM 018 TLM 026 TLM 033 TLI'vl 039 TLM 040 TLM 042 TLM 043 TLM 048 TLM 050 TLM 058 TLM 059 TLM 060 TLM 061 TLM 062 TLM 063 TLM 064 TLM 065 TLM 072 TLM 073 TLM 075 · TLM 077 TLi'"l 079 (h) TLM 080 (h) TLM 102 TU-1 104 TU'-1 115* TLM 119* TLM 126* TLI'-1 137* ] l TABLE E.4.1: IMPACT ON KNOWN CULTURAL RESOURCES BY AREA Devil Canyon Dam and Impoundment TLM 022 TLM 023 (h) TLM 024 TLM 027 TLM 029 TLM 030 TLM 034 Borrow and Geotechnical Sites TLM 035 Access Route Access Route Borrow Sites Transmission Corridors Other Areas TOTAL 38 TABLE 1::.4.1 (Cont 1 d) Indirect Impact Watana Dam and Impoundment J -_j j Devil Canyon Dam and Impoundment Borrow and Geotechnical Sites Access Route TLM 051 TLM 101 TLM 103 TLM 114 TLI'4 155* .I Access Route Borrow Sites Transmission Carr i dors TLI\'1 112 j Other Areas TLM 015 TLM 016 TLM 020 (h) TU-1 038 TLM 071 (h) TU-1 098 TLM 099 TLM 100 TLM 105 TLIV1 109 TLM 110 TLM 111 TLM 113 TLM 117 TLM 120* TLM 121* TLM 130* TLM 133* TLM 143* TLM 145* TLM 153* HEA 174 HEA 176 HEA 180 HEA 183 TOTA.L HEA 184 32 TABLE E.4.1 (Cont'd) Potential lmpac1; Watana Uam and ImpoUndment Devil Canyon Dam and Impoundment Borrow and Geotechnical Sites, TLM 068 TL1"1 070 J Access Route l Access Route Borrow Sites -l Transmission Corridors FAI 213* FAI 214* HEA 026+ HEA 030+ HEA 035+ HEA 037+ HEA 038+ HEA 080+ HEA 083+ HEA 119+ HEA 137+ HEA 210* Other Areas TLM 021 TLM 025 TLM 028 TLM 031 TLM 032 TLM 036 TLM 037 TLM 041 TLM 044 TLM 045 TLM 046 TL1"1 047 TLM 049 TLM 052 TLM 053 TLM 054 TLM 055 TLM 056 (h) TLM 057 TLI"1 066 TLM 069 TLM 074 TLM 076 TLM 078 TLM 081 TLi"1 083 TLM 084 TLM 085 TLM 086 TOTAL TA~LE E. 4.1 (Cont' d) Potentj i a 1 ~ (Cont'd} Watana Dam and Impoundment Devi 1 Canyon Dam and Impoundment Borrow and Geotechnical Sites Access Route Access Route Borrow Sites Transmission Corridors 1 Other Areas TLM 087 TLM 088 TLM 089 TLM 090 TLM 091 TLM 092 TLM 093 TLM 094 TLM 095 TLM 096 TLM 097 TLM 106 TLM 107 TLM 108 TLM 116 TLI'-1 118* TLM 122* TLM 123* TLM 124* TLM 125* TLM 127* TLM 128* TLM 129* TLM 131* TLM 132* TLM 134* TLM 135* TLM 136* TLM 138* J TOTAL l l • TABLE E. 4.1 (Cant • d) Watana Dam Devil Canyon Borrow and Access Route and Dam and Geotechnical Access Borrow Transmission Other Impoundment Impoundment Sites Route Sites Corridors Areas TOTAL Potential TLM 139* ~ TLM 140* d) TLM 141* TLM 142* TLM 144* TLIVI 146* TLM 147* TLM 148* TLM 149* TLM 150* TLM 151* TLM 151* TLM 152* TLM 154* HEA 181 HEA 182 HEA 185 HA 211* 89 No TLM 082 TLM 077+ Tiiipact HEA 177 TLM 067 HEA 178 HEA 175 HEA 179 HEA 186 8 TOTALS 30 7 7 5 0 13 105 167 (h) -Hi star i c Site * -Site located during 1982 field season + -On record in the Alaska Office of History and Archeology TABLE E.4.2: SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT -CULTURAL RESOURCES Appears to Be Eligible for Inclusion in the National Register of Historic Places Proposed Testing Further Testing Testing Expected Recommended Land AHRS # Location Level Yes No Regu ired Schedule Impact Mitigation Status TLIVI 007* 0 NI None Required PR TUVI 015 0 R X 1983-1984 I I ss TLIVI 016 0 R X 1983-1984 II ss TLM 017 w R X 1983-1984 DI ss TLM 018 w s X DI I Kn TLM 020 0 R X II I Kn TUVI 021 0 R PI A SP TU"' 022 [) s X DI I Ty TLM 023 0 R DI Ty TLM 024 0 R X 1983-1984 OI Ty TLM 025 0 R PI A VS TLM 026 w R X 1983-1984 DI sss TLM 027 D s X DI I Kn TLM 028 0 R PI A F TLM 029 D R X 1983-1984 DI Kn TLM 030 0 R X 1983-1984 DI Kn TLM 031 0 R PI A VS TLI"' 032 0 R PI A vs TL~1 033 w s X DI None Required vs TLM 034 D R X 1983-1984 DI Kn TLM 035 B R X 1983-1984 DI VS TLI"' 036 0 R PI A sss TLM 037 0 R PI A VS TU"' 038 0 s X II I ss TLM 039 w s X OI I ss TLIVI 040 w s X DI I vs J 1 l TABLE E. 4. 2 (Cant • d) Appears to Be Eligible for Inclusion in the National Register of Historic Places Proposed Testing Further Testing Testing Expected Recommended Land AH.RS # Location Level Yes No Required Schedule Impact Mitigation Status TU1 041 0 R PI A VS TLM 042 w s X DI I sss TU1 043 w s X DI I vs TLIVI 044 0 R PI A sss TU1 045 0 R PI A SP TLM 046 0 s X PI A SP TLI"l 047 0 R PI A sss TLI'1 048 w s X DI I ss TLM 049 0 R PI A sss TLIV! 050 w s X DI I vs TLM 051 B/AR R X 1983-1984 II ss TLM 052 0 R PI A sss TLIV! 053 0 R PI A sss TLM 054 0 R PI A ss TLM 055 0 R PI A ss TLM 056 0 R X PI A ss TLIV! 057 0 R PI A ss TLM 058 w R X 1983-1984 DI vs TLM 059 w s X DI ss TLIV! 060 w R X 1983-1984 DI ss TLM 061 w R X . 1983-1984 DI ss TLM 062 w s X DI I vs TLM 063 w R X 1983-1984 DI VS TLM 064 w R X 1983-1984 DI vs TUvJ 065 w s X DI I sss TABLE E.4.2 (Cont•d} Appears to Be Eligible for Inclusion in the National ~egister of Historic Places Proposed Testing Further Testing Testing Expected Recommended Land AHRS # Location Level Yes No Required Schedule Impact Mitigation Status TLM 066 0 R PI A ss TLM 067 0 R NI None Required vs TLM 068 B R PI A ss TLM 069 0 s X PI A sss TLM 070 B R PI A ss TU~ 071 0 R X X 1983-1984 II sss TLM 072 w R X 1983-1984 DI sss TLM 073 w R X 1983-1984 DI sss TLM 074 0 R PI sss TLM 075 w R X 1983-1984 DI sss TLM 076 0 R PI sss TLM 077 w R X 1983-1984 OI sss TLM 078 0 R PI A SP TLM 079 w R X OI I sss TLM 080 w R X DI I vs TLM 081 0 R PI A ss TLM 082 B R NI None Required ss TLM 083 0 R PI A SP TLM 084 0 R PI A SP TLM 085 0 R PI A SP TLM 086 0 ~ PI A ss TLM 087 0 R PI A SP TLI~ 088 0 ~ PI A ss TLM 089 0 R PI A ss TLI~ 090 0 R PI A ss __ j .. J .l J _j _] J J . __ ·] J l TABLE E. 4. 2 (Cant' d) Appears to Be Eligible for Inclusion in the National Register of Historic Places Proposed Testing Further Testing Testing Expected Recommended Land AHRS # Location Level Yes No Required Schedule Impact Mitigation Status TLII1 091 0 R PI A ss TLM 092 0 R PI A ss TLM 093 0 R PI A SS or PR TLM 094 0 R PI A ss TLM 095 0 R PI A ss TLM 096 0 R PI A ss TLM 097 0 s X PI A ss TLM 098 0 R X 1983-1984 II SP TLM 099 0 R X 1983-1984 II SP TL.M 100 0 R X 1983-1984 II sss TLM 101 AR R X 1983-1984 II ss TLM 102 w R X 1983-1984 OI vs TLM 103 AR R X 1983-1984 II ss TLM 104 w . R X 1983-1984 OI vs TLM 105 0 R X 1983-1984 II ss TLM 106 0 R PI A ss TLI'vl 107 0 R PI A ss TLM 108 0 R PI A ss TLM 109 0 R X 1983-1984 II ss TLM 110 0 R X 1983-1984 II ss ftM 111 ·a R X 1983-1984 II ss TLM 112 T R X 1983-1984 II ss TLI11 113 0 R X 1983-1984 II ss TLM 114 AR R X 1983-1984 II ss TLM 115 w R X 1983-1984 OI sss TABLE E .. 4. 2 (Cant • d) Appears to Be Eligible for Inclusion in the National Register of Historic Places Proposed Testing Further Testing Testing Expected Recommended Land AHRS # Location Level Yes No Requjred .Schedule Impact Mitigation Status TLM 116 u R PI A ss TLM 117 0 R X 1983-1984 II SP TU-1 118 0 R PI A Ty TLM 119 w R X 1983-1984 DI vs TLM 120 0 R X 1983-1984 II vs TLM 121 0 R X 1983-1984 II vs TLM 122 0 R PI A vs TLM 123 0 R PI A vs TLM 124 0 R PI A vs TLM 125 0 R PI A vs TLM 126 w R X 1983-1984 DI vs TLM 127 0 R PI A vs n .. M 12s 0 s X PI sss TLM 129 0 R PI A vs TLM 130 0 s X II I vs TLM 131 0 R PI A vs TLM 132 0 R PI A vs TLM 133 0 R X 1983-1984 II vs TLM 134 0 R PI A sss TLM 135 0 R PI A sss TLM 136 0 R PI A sss TLM 137 w R X 1983-1984 DI sss TLM 138 0 R PI A sss TLM 139 0 R PI A sss TLM 140 0 r pi a sss .1 J l 1 ... ) TABLE E. 4. 2 (Cant • d) Appear$ to Be Eligible for Inclusion in the National Register of Historic Places Proposed Testing Further Testing Testing Expected Recommended Land AHRS # Location Level Yes No Required Schedule Impact Mitigation Status TLM 141 0 R PI A sss TLM 142 0 R PI A sss TLM 143 0 s X II I sss TLI'-1 144 0 R PI A sss TUVJ 145 0 ' R X 1983 ... 1984 II sss TLM 146 0 R PI A sss TLM 147 0 R PI A sss TLM 148 0 R PI A sss TLM 149 0 R PI A sss TLM 15U 0 R PI A sss TLM 151 0 R PI A sss TLM 152 0 R PI A sss TLM 153 0 X 1983-1984 I I ss TLM 154 0 R PI A sss TLM 155 AR X 1983-1984 II SP HEA 026* T PI A u HEA 030* T PI A u HEA 035* T PI A u HEA 037* T PI A u HEA 038* T PI A u HEA 080* T PI A u HEA 083* T PI A u HEA 119* T PI A u HEA 137* T PI A u HEA 174 0 R X 1983-1984 II F TABLE E.4.2 (Cont•d) Appears to Be Eligible for Inclusion in the National Register of Historic Places Proposed Testing Further Testing Testing Expected Recommended Land· AHRS # Location Level Yes No Required Schedule Impact 1"1i t i gat ion Status HEA 175 0 s X II ~ 1981) None Required F NI 1982 HEA 176 0 R X 1983-1984 II F HEA 177 B R NI None Required F HEA 178 B R NI None Required F HEA 179 B R NI None Required F HEA 180 0 R X 1983-1984 II F HEA li31 0 R PI A F HEA 182 0 R PI A F HEA 183 0 R X 1983-1984 II F HEA 184 0 R X 1983-1984 II F HEA 185 0 R PI A F HEA 186 0 R NI None Required F HEA 210 T R PI A u HEA 211 0 R PI A F FAI 213 T R PI A u FAI 214 T R PI A u *Reported in the files of the Alaska Office of History and Archeo 1 ogy. ** Sites should be tested on a priority basis within the framework of the overall cultural resource program. ) J . ) J Abbreviations for Table E.4.2 Location: AR -Access Route ARB -Access Route Borrow B -Borrow and Geotechnical Sites U -Devil Canyon Dam and Impoundment 0 -Other Areas T -Transmission Route W -Watana Dam and Impoundment Expected Imp~ct: UI -Direct Impact II -Indirect Impact PI -Potential Impact NI -No Impact by the project as presently known -."' J Testing Leve 1 : R -Reconnaissance S -Systematic Testing Significance: l -1l . X -The site has received testing and determined to be significant and is likely to be eligible for inclusion in the National Register. Recommended Mitigation: Land Status: A -Avoidance SS -State Selected } I -Investigation P -Preservation SSS -State Selected Suspended SP -State Patented VS -Village Selection Abbreviations for vi 11 age select ions: Ch -Chickaloon Kn -Knik Ty -Tyonek F -Federal PR -Private U -Unknown 1 TABLE E.4.3: w D OI 30 7 II 0 0 PI 0 0 NI 0 0 TOTAL 30 7 Abbreviations: DI -Direct Impact II -Indirect Impact PI -Potential Impact NI -No Impact by the project as presently known B 1 0 2 4 7 SUMMARY OF IMPACT BY LOCATION AR 0 5 0 0 5 ARB T 0 TOTAL 0 0 0 38 0 1 26 32 0 12 75 89 0 0 4 8 0 13 105 167 W -Watana Dam and Impoundment D -Devil Canyon Dam and Impoundment B -Borrow and Geotechnical Sites AR -Access Route ARB -Access Route Borrow (proposed) T -Transmission Route 0 -Other Areas within the study area * Proposed access road borrow areas in which cultural resources have been identified have subsequently been eliminated as potential borrow sources. - ~ - ...,., - - ,-. ' ..... -' - ) ··-·~ J l 1 ·-1 CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES 3,022,387 SO MILES 7,858,206 SO KILOMETERS \ • 0 0 100 SUSITNA HYDROPOWER PROJECT ----300 480 500MI BOOKM ----0 160 SCALE I~ 7,500,000 LOCATION OF SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT FIGURE E.4.1 ,..,., -i - - FAIRBANKS \ SCALE ... / / \_ TANANA ~---~'k. ~~ L ... ...--._ _.,.-· LEGEND (\ttl\J SUSITNA BASIN 0 20 40 MILES LOCATION OF SUSITNA RIVER BASIN ABOVE GOLD CREEK FIGUREEA.2 ~~~IO~iiiiiiiiiiiiiii~20 MILES SCALE ~ l . 1 -) ... J l STUDY AREA FOR CULTURAL RESOURCES AND ASSOCIATED ACTIVITIES -SUSITNA RIVER ] LEGEND: 1::::::::::::::::::::::::::~ IMPOUNDMENT LIMIT ~ ARCHEOLOGY STUDY AREA _ PLEISTOCENE GEOLOGY I -~ STUDY AREA FIGURE E .4.3 - - - -""-· r ' ,../ ./ FAIRBANKS RIVER ./ __r-···~ ... ~··· \ TANANA ~ .. ~ BLY!NG SOUND 0 "' LEGEND 20 STUDY AREA FOR CULTURAL RESOURCES- TRANSMISSION CORRIDORS ·.~ L ... ~ tY ARCHEOLOGY· STUDY AREA 40 MILES FIGURE E.4:4 l l } ) SUSITNA RIVER TEPHROCHRONOLOGY 14 C DATES CORRELATION STRATIGRAPHIC UNITS AGE (LAB NO.) 0 ~~~lD1D~IC~-~~18~7~9f)~·~---------~r---~~~~~--y---~r-~--~~U,-----r=~:J--~~~~ j4Q't~45 DIC-2244)•~ GENERAUZED LITHOLOGIC N CON-STRAT. CULTURAL 280:1:110 DIC-1905) • STRAT. SECTION UNIT I TACT UNIT HORIZONS 1-z w C/) w 0:: 1000 0.. 2000 w 0:: 0 IJ... w m C/) 0:: <{ w >-3000 T ~ [·/~ . :::x::··/·'(.{:=/·7 \=: r"\. A I I ~ 1 .·.:::/:?J:;:~J)}.Y\:;:i \\ ~'--,R-Gi,A-NIII-CI---+-1-8~+--::._· ---+--~:--- 1030:t:60 (DIC,...2200) ••l~~~~~\~~~,~~~~~~~~~ ~RG SILT II 4 4 132o:1: 110 co1c-224al =I t&f c 5 5 1380t 155(DIC-2246) •7.-: tt\\\\\\][[f\)\)J DEVIL 1400± 55 (DIC-2245) \ ::::: TEPHRA Ill 6 •:::: .;:;::·:: / 1800:t: 55 (DIC-2284) • . · ·. · .·. ·. ·' wU:ffJ'A IV D : 6 TEPHRA ( E 9 L~~.W~MAN~A~V~-~~10~-----~ 7 4000 4020t65 (DIC-2283) • BEDROCK VIII 16 4720t 130(DIC-1880)• 5000 ______________ _. __________ ~~----------------------------------------------------~ SUSITNA RIVER STRATIGRAPHIC UNITS AND TEPHROCHRONOLOGY FIGURE E .4.5 - - - f""'. I -APPENDIX E4A Antiquities Permit Stipulations - - - NPS 8. (CONTtNUEO) SPECIAL CONDlT10N5 ARE CHEC"-ED tX) AS A~PROPRIATE TO THIS PEFH.J~IT ,.... , a. :~-~his permit shall not be exclusive in character, and there is hereby reserved unto the landowners the right lo use, lease .or permit the use of said land or any part thereof for any purpose. !""" b-. ~ther institutions may be engaged in archeological res~arch in the general area covered by this permit, and in case there should be conflict with respect to a site not specifically designated in a permit, the parties con- cerned shall reach agreement between themselves as to which shall work the site. !""" c. ~ The Department of the Interior, including its bureaus and employees ~d the landowners and their grantees, shall be held ~lameless for any and all events, deeds or mishaps, regardless of whether or ncr they arise from operations under this permit. ~ d.~ ·Such guidance and protection as is consistent with the duties of the Department of the Interior official in ~harge of the area will be afforded the permit holder and his party. e. rc/. ..,.._ansportation in Department of the Interior vehicles cannot be furnished, except in cases where no extra ex- [' ~nse to the Department is involved. - f. ~11 costs shaH be borne by the permittee. g. whe exploration or excavation of any Indian grave or burial ground on Indian lands and reservations under the jurisdiction of the Department of the Interior is restricted solely to qualified archeologists. No grave or burial -ground abandoned less than 200 years may be investigated without permission of the governing council of the Indians concerned, which supplemental authority must be promptly recorded with the superintendent or other official in charge of the designated area. h. ~11 excavated areas shall be restored by filling in the excavations and otherwise leaving the area in as near !"""' to original condition as is practicable. i. rFiJ.. The permittee shall condu. c. tall operations in such.a manner as to prevent the erosion of the land, pollution of 'J""ilie' water resources, and damage to .the watershed, and to do all things necessary to prevent or reduce to the fullest extent the scarring of the lands. j. ~~y finili~gs of mined or ~recessed preclQUS metals or other treasure or tre~sure trove in the area covered by ~""-th1s perm1t are the exclus1ve property of the landowners~ and shall not be d1sturbed or removed from the site without specific written permission from the Department of the Interior. -k. ~Before undertaking any -Work on lands administered by the Bureau of Land Management, clearance should be y-~btainedfromtheOfficeQftheStateDi~ectmat 701 C St PO Box 13, Anchorage, AK 99513 and from the BLM District Officer in direct charge of the area c-oncerned at------~------- all Djstri~t Offices in Alaska -seo attached shee 1. f.ore undertaking any work on lands administered :by the Fish and Wildlife Service, .clearance should be ob- ned from the Office of the Regional Director allOll E. Tudor Rd., Anchorage, -AK 99503 and the "Re!uge Manager in c;harge at the appropriate Fish & Wild life refuge Possession or ilse .of firearms in such areas is prohibited. m. 0 Before undertaking any work on lahds administered by fhe Bureau of Reclamation, clearance should be obtained r-from the official in charge of the area. R. 0 Before undertaking any work on lands administered by the National Park Service, clearance _shQuld be obtained from the superintendent -in char-ge of-the area. o. O Bel'ore undertaking any work 1>n Indian tribal lands or on individually owned trust or restricted Indian lands, clearance shouh:I be obtained from the Bureau of Indian Affairs official having immediate jurisdiction over the p~operty at ---------------------------~--------------------------------------------------~r s_pecial conditions continued on attache.d sheet(s). E4A-1 BI..M s?.:::cr;..L cc:::-::::-:::c::s--ce>ntinued Page 2 of Permit 1. Work under this p.o:::nit is limited to consultation services (general survey in•:e:; ~igations, li.nitec surface co.llections and testing for site evaluative purposes only) when requested by the Bureau of Land l·:c.na::;e..::~ent (EL"1). Extensive testing, emergency excavation, and/or salvage may not be undertaken under this permit except wiL~ L~e ~~itten approval of the appropriate BL~ District Manager. 2. Academic research projects may not be conducted under the authority of this pe~~t-Such projects will require separate research permits. 3. ~~e per-~ttee ~~~11 contact the appropriate BL~ District P2mager prior to the besL~~ing of each of his field operations to inform the Bh~ of specific work to be conducted. At this time, the BL.~ District .!>'=nager may impose additional stipulations as deemed necessary to provide for the protection and ~~agernent of the resources of the area. 4. Collections of cultural artifacts and other related material acquired under the provisions of this permit remain the property of the United States Government and may be recalled at any time for the use of the Bh~ or other agencies of the Federal Government. 5. The following i~dividuals are auL~orized to be in direct charge of field work conducted under·~this pe:rmit: George S. Smith, C. Eugene West, David C. Plaskett, Brian Gannon, Robert C. Betts. 6. The person in direct charge of field work, or a qualified designee, shall be on site at all. times when work is in progress. Failure to comply with permit stipulations will result in 'removal of subject's ncne from the approved list of persons-in-:dire.ct charge. 7. During the cou:!:"se of the work conducted under this permit,. . the BL~ District Manager or his representative shall have access to the study area of t..~is penni t, and during or after comp).etion of this work, shall have the right to inspectall artifacts or other material re.::~oved f.rom these sites. E4A-2 - - - - - -I - S?ECIAL C~:::-!TIO~~.S --c::-ntinued Page 3 of Permit B. Tne following info~ation shall be submitted to the District Nanager as a part of t."le preliminary report or as a part of a separate report within 30 days of the end of each complete~ project: a. identification of the specific Federal Ar1tiquities permit under which work was per£o.rmed.; b. identification of t.~e project a..'1d the BLM Serial case file {if any) for ~hich the report is being written; e. the names of individuals utilized in activities under this permit, the coire~encement and te!:1rination dates of invest~ gations, and 'the disposition of original notes and records; d. a description of survey methods and the intensity of the survey; e. a definition of "site" and "site types" as used in this study; f. a statement of the work done under the permit; g. the significance of identified cultural resources and their potential for contributing data concerning archeol.ogical problems of the project area, including descriptions and maps exhibiting t.~eir relationship to the proposed project. Sites which may merit no~ination to the Natio~al Register of Historic Places will be so identified; b. a completed Site Inventory Form for each site found (BLM #8110-1 ~~-5 or toehr approved form) with appropriate maps indicating the location of each site; i. a catalog and evaluation of all objects collected; and j. a recolZ!ended program of study to realistically mitigate direct and indirect adverse effects on cultural resources. which will result from the project, including possible research designs. It is recomr:lended in the event that arc..'i)eological resources are to b€ affected by the originally pla~ed project that every atte:npt be made to alter the ~eas of surface disturbance to avoid these resources. w.~en mitigating actions ~~st include excavation, the re~uest for clear~~ce will report in detail L~e reasons why avoid~~ce car~ot be accoc~lished. 10. A copy of all p~lished journal c!..!:'ticles (re?ri.nts) and ot.'"Jer p~lished or ~·?·~l~s~ec re?orts ~~= ~~us==~?ts resulting from t.~e "'·c=r. co:-:.6:.:::-.::ec u.:-.der t: . .:.s ~:c::-.it s:-.all be :ile:: \Jit.'"l the -E4A-3 SFFCII:.L C8::r-:::':'IO::s--cont:.nucd Page 4 of Pe~ t 11. Upon request, all field notes, records, photographs, and other data related to t.his per:n.it shall be made accessible to the BI..M and/or the DepartDental Consulting Archeologist for review. 12. If any evidence of hlliuan reoains is encountered during the course of test excavations, all work shall cease and the responsible BU1 Officer shall irr~ediately be notified. Work shall not reco~ence until permission to db so is obtained from L~e responsible BL~ Officer. 13. No lithic replicative experimentation shall be conducted at any a=-cheological site cr ab::riginal q-uarry source covered by this per.::it. 14. S,takes and/or flagging used 1:o identify-sites, shall be removed upon completion of the project. 15. Vehicular activity shall be restricted to existing roads and trails unless otherwise authorized by the District Manager. Care should be exercised to avoid directly or indirectly increasing access or potential.vandalism to cultural resource sites. 16. Disturbed areas shall be kept to a minimum size consistent w"i th the purpose of the study. 17. Permittee shall take adequate precautions to prevent livestock from injury in any pit or trench. · 18. All test pits shall be backfilled. 19. Living trees shall not be cut or otherwise d~~aged. 20. Camp sites shall be at _least 300 yards from water. 21. Proper precaution shall be taken at all times to prevent a.t"ld suppress fires. The permi t,tee shall be held respon~ib_le for suppression costs for any fores on public lands caused L~rough negligence of the permittee or his authorized representatives. No debris burning shall be allowed without specific permission from the District !-tanager. 22. Improvements ushc as fencing or reservoirs or other i.!!lprovements within the permit azea shall not be dis"turbed or where disturbance is necessary, prior approval -must be obtained from t..~e District Ma..'"lager. Any irr.?r::we~nt disturbance shall be left in the original or better condition as is determined by the District Ma..'"lager. E4A-4 - ~. - - - ,.... - SPECIJ...L co:·::rTIO~:s--continued Page 5 of Permit 23. The permittee shall be responsible for cleaning up all camp and work sites before leaving the area. Caution shall be .taken to adequately prevent littering and pollution on the public lands under permit or the adjoining properties. Refuse shall be carried out and deposited ~~ approved disposal areas. 2 <1 The BL:·~ reserves the right to request the Departmental Consulting Archeologist to ter:ninate this permit at any time. 25. The res~es of a!l crew chie=s must be sub~tted to the State o=fice, BLH, and to the office of the Departrrental Consultinq Archeologist, if ~~y changes in personnel are anticipated. 26. The permittee shall contact the appropriate BLM District Y~ager prior to beginning each of his filed operations (with follow-up written notification) to inform the ELM of specific work to be conducted. Such notification should take place at the earliest stage of a project requiring a consulting_services survey. At the time of notifcation, the permittee shall also bring with him wr±tten concurrence from the appropriate Native Corporation, when the project will involve land selected under the ANCSA. 27. All artifactual material collected or excavated under this permit from lands selected under the provision of ANCSA shall remain the property of the United States Government until such times as interim .oonveyance of the particular parcel of. land is co~pleted. Opon conveyance, o~~ership of artifactual .material collected or excavated, from land conveyed under ANCSA, between the tine of "withdraw! for selection" and •conveyance" corporation. ~~ership of artifactual material can be transferred at an earlier date if proper facilities for housing and storing L~e collection by the Native group are available. Requests for transfer of ow~ership of artifacts should be made to the Bu~eau of Land Management, Alaska State Director. E4A-5 ,. ... , ,. .. .., , ..... ,_ I - - GLOSSARY Bifacial knives - a knife flaked on both sides Bone collagen-fibrous protein in bones which holds cells and tissue together Burin - a stone artifact defined on the morphological characteristic of a blow(s) struck along one or more edges. Generally believed to be used in working antler, ivory and bone Burin spalls -thin, curved, and sharp-edged pieces of rock Calcareous concretionary -material of limestone origin which has grown together Chert point-a small piece from a compact and siliceous rock; flint is a variety of chert Chert flake-small piece of compact rock such as flint or silica Cobble spall - a thin, curved piece of rock 64-256 mm in diameter Cryoturbation -frost heaving Cryptocrystalline flake -material so fine-grained that individual components cannot be seen without a magnifying lens Debitage-waste material from the manufacture of tools Distal end -the end farthest from the point of attachment Eskers -stratified accumulations of gravel, sand, and stone, usually occurring in long ridges Humic zone -the organic layer of soil, composed of material derived from decomposing plants Kame ridges - a ridge of sand or gravel deposited in contact with glacier ice Kettle lake - a bowl-shaped lake resulting from the melting of a huge mass of ice ' Lanceolate-tapering to a point; shaped like a spear Lithic -sediments and rocks in which rock fragments are more important proportionally than feldspar grains Lithologies -the physical characteristics of a rock Moraine -drift material deposited clliefly by direct glacial action Rhyolite flakes -sma11 pieces of dense homogeneous rock Tephras-solid volcanic ash Tuffacious flake-small pieces from compacted volcanic rock - - - .~ - SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT VOLUME 7 EXHIBIT E CHAPTER 5 SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACTS - - r SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT VOLUr~E 7 EXHIBIT E CHAPTER 5 SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS TABLE OF CONTENTS Pag~ 1 -INTRODUCTION ............................................. E-5-1 2 -BASELINE DESCRIPTION ..................................... E-5-3 2.1-Identification of Socioeconomic Impact Areas ....... E-5-3 2.1.1 Local Impact Area .......................... E-5-3 2.1.2 Regional Impact Area ....................... E-5-3 2.1.3 State .... -: ................................. E-5-4 2.2 -Description of Employment, Population, Personal Income and Other Trends in the Impact Areas ........ E-5-4 2.2.1 Local ...................................... E-5-4 _2.2.2 Regional ................................... E-5-23 2.2.3 State ............... -....................... E-5-25 3-EVALUATION OF THE IMPACT OF PROJECT ...................... E-5-27 3.1 -Impact of In-migration of People on Governmental Facilities and Services ............................ E-5-27 3.1.1 Introduction ............................... E-5-27 3.1.2 Methodology ................................ E-5-28 3.1.3 Watana Construction Phase .................. E-5-30 3.1.4 Watana Operation Phase and Devil Canyon Construction Phase ......................... E-5-49 3.1.5 Watana and Devil Canyon-Operation Phase .. E-5-52 3.2 -Onsite Manpower Requirements and Payroll, by Year .. E-5-53 3.2.1 Manpower Requirements ...................... E-5-53 3.2.2 Seasonality of Manpower Requirements ....... E-5-53 3.2.3 Payroll .................................... E-5-55 3.3 -Residency and Movement of Project Construction Personnel ..... o •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• E-5-56 3.3.1 Region ..................................... E-5-57 3.3.2 Cantwell ....................... ~ ........... E-5-67 3.4-Adequacy of Available Housing in Impact Areas ...... E-5-69 3.4.1 Watana-Construction Phase ................ E-5-69 3.4.2 Watana Operation Phase and Devil Canyon - Construction Phase ......................... E-5-75 3.4.3 Watana and Devil Canyon Operation Phases ... E-5-77 3.5 -Displacement and Influences on Residences and Business ........................................... E-5-77 3.5.1 Residences ................................. E-5-77 r - - - LIST OF TABLES Table E.5.1 -~latanuska-Susitna Borough Annual Nonagricultural Employment by Sector Table E.5.2 -Community Population: Matanuska-Susitna Borough, 1939, 1950, 1960, 1970, 1976, 1980, 1981 Table E.5.3 -Per Capita Personal Income in the Mat-Su Borough in Current and 1970 Dollars Table E.5.4 Housing Stock Estimates and Vacancy Rates in the Local Impact Area Table E.5.5 -Community Facilities Summary Table E.5.6 -Characteristics of Public Schools: Matanuska Susitna Borough School District 1981 Table E.5.7 ·-Regional Nonagricultural Employment Table E.5.8 -1981 Civilian Housing Stock in the Municipality of Anchorage, by Type Table E.5.9 -~ousing Stock in Fairbanks and the Fairbanks- North Star Borough, by Type, October 1978 Table E.5.10 -State Annual Nonagricultural Employment by Sector Table E.5.11 -Summarized Impact of the Susitna Hydroelectric Project on Matanuska-Susitna Borough Table E.5.12 -Summarized Impact of the Susitna Hydroelectric Project on the City of Palmer Table E.5.13 -Summarized Impact of the Susitna Hydroelectric Project on the City of Wasilla Table E.5.14 -Summarized Impact of the Susitna Hydroelectric Project on the City of Houston Table E.5.15 -Summarized Impact of the Susitna Hydroelectric Project on Community of Trapper Creek Table E.5.16 -Summarized Impact of the Susitna Hydroelectric Project on the Community of Talkeetna Table E.5.17 -Summarized Impact of the Susitna Hydroelectric Project on the Community of Cantwell (High Case Impacts) i - -I I - - r .. I LIST OF TABLES Table E.5.34 -Total In-migration and Out-migration in the Region: Onsite Construction and Support Table E.5.35 -Total Population Influx and Efflux: Direct and Support Table E.5.36 -Total Population Influx and Efflux Associated with the Direct Construction Work Force Table E.5.37 -Employment and Population Effects in Cantwell: Cases A & B Table E.5.38 -Impact of the Susitna Hydroelectric Project on Housing Demand in the Local Impact Area During the Watana Construction Phase Table E.5.39 -Impact of the Susitna Hydroelectric Project on Housing Demand in the Local Impact Area During the Watana Operation and Devil Canyon Construction Phase Table E.5.40 -Support Jobs Created in the Region, Mat-Su Borough, and Cantwell by the Project, 1985-2002 Table E.5.41 -Employment Impacts in the Region and Mat-Su Borough, 1985-2005 Table E.5.42 -Mat-Su Borough Service Areas Revenue Forecasts Table E.5.43 -Mat-Su Borough Budget Forecasts Table E.5.44 -Mat-Su Borough School-Age Children Forecasts Table E.5.45 -Upper Cook Inlet Annual Commercial Catch and Value Table E.5.46 -Cook Inlet Commercial Salmon Permit Use Table E.5.47 -Estimated Potential Losses to the Upper Cook Inlet Commercial Fishery -Case 1 Table E.5.48 -Estimated Potential Losses to the Upper Cook Inlet Commercial fishery-Case 2 iii. - - -· r- 1 - r ! - r I LIST OF FIGURES Figure E.5.1 -Socioeconomic Impact Areas Figure E.5.2 -Employment, Population and Per Capita Personal Income in the Matanuska-Susitna Borough, 1970-1980 Figure E.5.3 -Employment, Population and Per Capita Personal Income in the Railbelt Region Figure E.5.4 -Employment, Population and Per Capita Personal Income in the State of Alaska, 1940-1980 Figure E.5.5 -Onsite Construction and Operations Work Force Requirements Figure E.5.6 -Seasonal Labor Curve Figure E.5.7 -Alaska Game Management Units Figure E.5.8 -Game Management Units in the Vicinity of the Project Figure E.5.9 -Boundaries of the Study Area where Potential Impacts of the Susitna Hydroelectric Development on Big Game were Studied in 1980 Figure E.5.10-Boundaries of Moose Count Areas Previously Surveyed from 1955-1980 in the Susitna Hydroelectric Project Study Area of South-Central Alaska v - - ,.... - - - i"' ! 1 -INTRODUCTION A systematic approach was used for the socioeconomic impact analysis and assessment. It involved defining impact areas, describing and analyzing baseline socioeconomic conditions, developing and comparing projections of socioeconomic conditions with and without development of the dams, and developing a foundation for an impact management program. Considerable effort was devoted to identifying and analyzing factors that will significantly influence the magnitude and geographic distri- bution of project-induced changes. A socioeconomic impact model was developed and computerized to project forecasts and analyze the effects of changing key factors. Key factors include project schedules: leave, shift and shift rotation schedules; the locally available supply of labor; housing and related facilities at the construction sites; and worker access to the sites. The estimated project-induced changes provided in the following sec- tions are based on one of several possible specifications for these key factors. With this specification, it is projected that socioeconomic impacts will generally be insignificant for the Rai"lbelt Region of Alaska. On the whole, the project-induced changes will probably be viewed as positive by most of the parties-at-interest. However, there will be project-induced changes in communities located near the construction sites'that are not in alignment with these com- munities1 attitudes toward changes. For example, the population of Cantwell is projected to double, and possibly more than f!uadruple, by 1990, the peak year of construction activity, and the population of Trapper Creek is projected to more than double by 1990. The potential changes associated with these rapid population increases are not gen- erally desired in Cantwell nor Trapper Creek. Some of these project-induced changes could be brought into better alignment (mitigated) by adjusting several of the key factors during project design and labor negotiations phases. In addition, specific mitigation measures could be used to reduce the cost or disruption of project-induced changes to the communities. An impact management program is recommended as a vehicle to help opti- mize project-induced changes for small communities located near the construction sites and to minimize adverse impacts on workers. It involves updating and using the results of the impact assessment, in combination with a monitoring prggram and with the input of parties-at- interest, to develop and implement, and evaluate the results of, an anticipatory mitigation program. This report on socioeconomic impacts was prepared in accordance with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission 1s (FERC) rules and regulations E-5-1 for preparation of Chapter 5 of Exhibit E. At the direction of the Power Authority, supplementary information not required by these rules and regulations was developed. Some of this supplementary information is provided in several sections of this report to provide for a better understanding of the socioeconomic impacts. Additional information is provided in Frank nrth & Associates, Inc. (1982). E-5-2 - - - - - - - - - - - - .... 2 -BASELINE DESCRIPTION 2.1 -Identification of Socioeconomic Impact Areas The selection of impact ar~as was heavily influenced by the following factors: anticipated worker transportation time, mode and route: physi- cal barriers: population concentrations and the indigenous labor force; political jurisdictions; and amenities in communities. The identifica- tion and rationale for selection of impact areas are described below. 2.1.1 -Local Impact Area After considering the above factors, it was tentatively concluded that most of the significant permanent and temporary project- induced population changes and associated impacts would occur in the Mat.anuska-Susitna (Mat-Su) Borough and nearby communities such as Cantwell. Accordingly, the Mat-Su Borough, including the lands in and around the project site, and nearby communities are designated as the Local Impact Area for the purposes of this analysis. The Mat-Su Rorough is the smallest statistical area for which relevant time-series economic and socioeconomic data are avai 1- able; and it is large enough for the organization of social life for the pursuit of one or several common interests and for provi- ding the necessary infrastructure. Hence, the most reliable quantitative estimates of impacts are for the borough rather than communities in or near the borough. Project-induced population changes could be large, relative to future population levels without the project, in several communi- ties in and near the Mat-Su Borough. These si gni fi cant changes are. addressed quantitatively to the extent allowed by available data. A strong effort was made to provide as f11uch geographical detail for impacts as possible because it is the SJ11all communi- ties and clusters of population that will be most affected hy the project. 2.1.2-Regional Impact Area The Regional Impact Area, referred'to as the Railbelt, was con- ceived to include most of the impacts that would spill out of the Local Impact Area. It includes the Anchorage, Kenai -Cook Inlet, Seward, Valdez-Chitina-Whittier, Mat-Su Borough, Southeast Fair- banks, and Fairbanks-North Star r.ensus Divisions (see Figure E.5.1). Project-induced employment changes could be significant in the six Census ni visions that surround the Mat-Su Borough, particularly Anchorage and Fairbanks. Some of the physical inputs and many of the 1 abor inputs wi 11 be drawn from the Anchorage and Fairbanks Census nivisions • E-5-3 2.2-Employment, Population, Income, and Other Trends For analytical purposes, the Regional Impact Area is divided into three subareas: Anchorage, Fairbanks and Valdez. The Anchorage, Kenai-Cook Inlet, Seward and Mat-Su Census Divisions comprise the Anchorage subarea; the Fairbanks North Star and Southeast Fair- banks Census Divisions comprise the Fairbanks subarea; and the Valdez-Chitina-Whittier Census Division comprises the Valdez sub- area. 2.1.3-State Socioeconomic changes that could occur outside the Regional Impact Area and within the state of Alaska, combined with changes that could occur in the Regional Impact Area, provide an approxi- mation of statewide changes. Because there are 1 ikely to be few significant statewide impacts, sections of this report pertaining to statewide impacts are intentionally brief. 2.2-Description of Employment, Population, Personal Income and Other Trends in the Impact Areas The information in this section was drawn from an extensive review of relevant reports and conversations with local authorities. Major sources of baseline information are included in the References at the end of this chapter. The literature review, interviews, analysis, and population-related projections were conducted by Frank Orth & Associates, Inc., personnel. 2. 2. 1 - L oc a 1 Recent trends in the population, employment, and per capita income of the Mat-Su Borough are displayed in Figure E.5.2. In general, the Local Impact Area can be described as a rural area with limited public facilities and services and a limited role for 1 ocal government. The southern part of the area is growing rapidly and becoming more suburban as a result of its proximity to Anchorage. The northern part of the Local Impact Area com- prises very small communities which have also been growing in the past few years, but at a more modest pace. (a) Employment Virtually all employment in the Mat-Su Borough, as re- flected in Table E.5.1, is in the government, services, and support sectors. Total employment by place of employment has risen steadily from 1145 in 1970 to 3078 in 1979, an increase of 169 percent. Employment in the first three quarters of 1980 averaged 3224. The borough has consistent- ly had high unemployment rates (20 percent in 1970 and 13.8 percent in 1979) because employment opportunities have not kept pace with the growth of the 1 abor force. The rate is E-5-4 - - - - - .... ..... ·'""" - - ,.. .. ..... - 2.2-Employment", Population, Income, and Other Trends often the highest in the state; in addition, the borough is more dependent on seasonal employment than are larger popu- lation centers, such as Anchorage (Alaska Department of Labor, various issues). Employment opportunities in the communities closest to the damsites (Talkeetna, Trapper Creek, the railroad communi- ties north of Talkeetna, and Cantwell) are limited. Lack of local jobs force many residents to leave the area for periods of time to work on the North Slope, in Wasilla or Anchorage and Fairbanks. Retail businesses associated with tourists, some government agencies, guiding, and arts/crafts businesses provide the majority of available jobs in these communities. (b) Population Population in the Mat-Su Borough has grown rapidly since 1970, 1 argely reflecting construction of the trans-Alaska pipeline and the evolution of borough areas into bedroom communities for the municipality of Anchorage. From 1970 to 1980 the population of the borough grew by 175 percent. Table E.5.2 shows population in the borough by community as well as the population of some communities just outside the borough's borders. Palmer and Wasilla stand out as the largest communities, with 1981 populations of approximately 2567 and 2168, respectively (Matanuska-Susitna Borough Planning Department 1981). Approximately 90 percent of the borough • s estimated 1981 population of 22,339 resides within a 20-mile (32 km) radius of Wasilla. The bulk of the remainder is distributed along the Parks Highway and rail road corridor. Several hundred inhabitants are scattered throughout the borough's wilder-. ness regions accessible primarily by water or air; these inhabitants include a few borough residents of the middle Susitna basin in the vicinity of the impoundments. U.S. census data indicated the following demographic profile for the Ma t-Su Borough: -51% Male and 49% Female. -97% Caucasian, 2% American Native, 1% Black. The Mat-Su Borough. like other areas of the state, is ex- pected to experience growth in the mid-1980s. As a result of the tendency of Anchorage employees to move into the Mat-Su area, strong growth is alSo projected to continue into the 1990s, with the borough population growing at an average annual rate of six percent. In the Base Case (which E-5-5 2.2-Employment, Population, Income, and Other Trends describes conditions without the Susitna project), popula- tion of the borough is expected to reach almost 43,000 in 1990, over 69,000 in the year 2000, and 88,000 by 2005. The incorporated communities of Palmer, Wasilla, and Houston are expected to grow many times over their present levels to populations by 2005 (without the Susitna project) of 7581, 12,053, and 5909, respectively. Houston, Big Lake, and Wasilla are expected to receive a large increase in population after 1990 as completion of the Knik Arm crossing brings these communities within a half-hour's drive of Anchorage. Trapper Creek, presently a community of about 225, is projected to double in population size by the year 2000 to approximately 475 people, growing at a four percent average annual rate. In the Base Case, its population is expected to reach 577 by 2005. Growth in Trapper Creek, in absence of the Susitna project, will be constrained by the amount of private land available and, more importantly, by the lack of employment opportunities. The Talkeetna area, currently containing about 640 inhabitants, is expected to grow at an annual rate of 5 percent a year and reach population levels of around 1000 in 1990, 1642 in 2000, and 2106 in 2005. The U.S. Census Bureau 1 isted the population of Cantwell at 62 in 1970 and 95 in 1980. However, a recent census con- ducted by a local group of residents in conjunction with the post office listed the population of Cantwell in 1980 and 1982 as 182 and 183, respectively (Community of Cantwell, Inc. 1982). Approximately half of the population consists of native Americans. Residents have indicated that the population of Cantwell grew rapidly after construct.ion of the Parks Highway in the 1970s and has now leveled off. Based upon an assumption of two percent average annual growth, it is expected that Cantwell's population will equal approximately 214 in 1990 and 260 in the year 2000. (c) Sociocultural Setting Much of the information in this section was taken from Stephen R. Braund & Associates, Inc. (March 1982). Talkeetna and Trapper Creek have experienced considerable population influx in recent years, noteworthy in that they are too remote from Anchorage to serve as bedroom communi- ties and offer 1 imited economic opportunities. Most resi- dents in the area share the desire to live in· a non- industrial, relatively rural setting. E-5-6 - - - - ~ I - - - .... 2.2-Employment, Population, Income, and Other Trends Talkeetna, located 114 miles (182 km) north of Anchorage, is the former site of an Indian village. It became a mining community after the discovery of gold in 1886, serving as a basis of operations for prospectors operating in the Yentna Mining District. Some miners spent the winter trapping, which was a significant part of the local economy until the 1940s. Construction of the Alaska rail road spurred growth by increasing access to the area by miners, travelers, and trappers. Upon construction of the Talkeetna airfield and FAA facility in 1940, young families began moving into the area to work for the government. Talkeetna became the center for mountaineering expeditions to Mt. McKinley in the 1950s. In 1965, construction of the Parks Highway and Ta 1 keetna Spur Road gave Talkeetna road access for the first time. Recreational use of the area increased, as did land sales and home construction for a growing population of young families. Trapper Creek was settled after 1950, initially by home- steaders. Upon construction of the Parks Highway and the operation of the state• s Open-to-Entry (OTE) 1 and disposal program during 1_968-1973, a new group of residents moved to the area, some acquiring 5-acre (2 ha) parcels for recrea- tional use, others seeking a year-round life in the wilder- ness. •'In both communities, the newer residents are more negativ·e about future change and development, feel·ing that it will be in conflict with their rural, relatively self-sufficient life-style. In contrast, the older residents are accustomed to change and do not feel threatened by growth. There has been some friction between newer and older set- tlers in the Talkeetna area, with some older residents skep- tical of the motivations of newer settlers and claiming that the new, young counterculture type of resident relies on food stamps and other government assistance rather than seek·ing a true subsistence lifestyle. Over time, however, social relations between the groups have improved. Cant we 11 is an unincorporated community in which approxi- mately half of its residents are Native Americans belonging to the Ahtna regional corporation. The non-native portion of the community has increased significantly since the completion of the Parks Highway in the mid-1970s and social conflict has emerged. A report on the sociocultural studies performed for the Alaska Power Authority on communi- ties near the damsites contained the following statement on the capacity of the existing social structure to deal with the stress of growth: E-5-7 2.2-Employment, Population, Income, and Other Trends "Changes may also be close to exceeding the carrying capac- ity of local social systems; sufficient numbers of persons may be residing in the communities (Cantwell and McKinley, a small community near McKinley National Park) or attempting to settle there that the capacity of the existing forms of social organization, amity, and decision-making may be ex- ceeded. Differences among values and requirements of resi- dents may be more extreme than at any previous point in recent history, leading residents to fear for the future of community 1 ife, to be pondering the creation of community government, and to be reassessing their own attachment to the immediate area" (Stephen R. Braund & Associates, Inc. March 1982). A recent example of the division in Cantwell has been the limited involvement of the Native community in the recently formed Community of Cantwell, Inc. (an organization devel- oped to act as a vehicle for the receipt of state grants for the community) and opposition by the Native community to dealings between state agencies and Community of Cantwell, Inc. (CIC). Currently, state dealings with the community are fragmented. In order to ensure representation of the whole community, both the Alaska Power Authority and the Alaska Department of Community and Regional Affairs have separate representatives who deal with either the Native or non-native portions of the population, through the Native village council and CIC, respectively. (d) Income Trends in per capita personal income are shown in Table E.5.3. Personal income rose substantially in the Mat-Su Borough in the 1970s and stabilized as the trans-Alaska pipeline was completed. Personal income rose from $3,957 per capita in 1970 to $9,032 per capita in 1977 and declined to $8,878 in 1979. The increase between 1970 and 1979 was therefore 124 percent. However, using the Anchorage Con- sumer Price Index-Urban as a measure of inflation, per- sonal income in 1979 was 19 percent higher than that of 1970 in real terms. The mean household income for Mat-Su Borough in 1980 was $30,627, despite one of the highest unemployment . rates in the state (U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis). (e) Housing Table E.5.4 shows 1981 housing st!ick estimates and vacancy rates for major areas of the Mat-Su Borough. A recent sur- vey by the borough showed total housing stock of 8582 units, of which 79.4 percent (6814 units) were occupied (Matanuska- E-5-8 - - - - -I - - - .... - - - - ..... ,,.. .. - r .... 2.2 -Employment, Population, Income, and Other Trends Susitna Borough Planning Department 1981). Most of the units were in the Palmer-Wasilla area. M earlier sur·vey showed that single-family houses predominate in the borough, representing 83 percent of the total; mobile homes and multifamily units accounted for 11 percent and five percent, respective-ly (Policy Malysts May 1980). Population per household for selected communities in the borough averaged 3.07 according to 1980 census data. This is considerably higher than the national and state averages. Housing vacancy rates fluctuate rapidly, with a five percent rate seen by local authorities to be healthy and growth- promoting. During the summer of 1981, vacancy rates in the incorporated cities ranged from 6.7 percent to 10 percent; more remote communities such as Talkeetna and Trapper Creek experienced very 1 ow vacancy rates of between one and two percent (Matanuska-Su sitna Borough Planning Department 1981). In 1981, there were 78,962 acres {31,585 ha) of unimproved subdivided land in the Mat-Su Borough (Matanuska-Susitna Borough Land Management Division December 22, 1982). Based upon a rough average of 1 acre (0.4 ha) per home, this amount of private 1 and wil.l be more than sufficient to provide for the increased number of households, under the Base Case. Currently, zoning efforts, are under way in the incorporated communities in the borough. There are no zoning regulations that would affect settlement in the areas around Talkeetna and Trapper Creek. The project sites 1 ie in a large area termed the Talkeetna Mountain Special Use District, which is affected by borough regulations that restrict settlement to recreational use. In 1982, there were 96 housing units in the Cantwell area, of which 69 were occupied (Community of Cantwell, Inc. 1982). Some of the vacant units in Cantwell do not have dependable sources of water or electricity, and thus could be termed marginal, year-round housing. To an extent, settlement in Cantwell has been limited by the availability of land for development. Non-native private land is scarce in Cantwell and the plots that are available are relatively expensive. Approximately 25 plots of subdivided land are currently available for sale. In addition, Ahtna, Inc., the Native corporation which represents the Indians living in Cantwell, owns almost 54,000 acres (21,600 ha) of land in and around the community. Of this amount, approximately 10,000 (4000 ha) are already patented; the remainder are in interim conveyance (Alaska Department of Community and Regional Affairs October 22, 1982). E-5-9 2.2-Employment, Population, Income, and Other Trends {f) Local Government Structure (i) Matanuska-Susitna Borough The Matanuska-Susitna Borough was incorporated as a second class borough on January 1, 1964._ At the time of incorporation, the borough automatically assumed three areawide powers: taxation; education; and planning, plotting, and zoning. In 1966, the citizens of the borough voted to add parks and recreation to the borough's powers. The borough operates solid waste disposal sites and 1 ibraries on a non-areawide basis (outside the incorporated cities). In addition, the borough administers six fire service areas and sixteen road service areas. The Mat-Su Borough has a Mayor-Manager-Assembly form of government. The borough administration, working under the direction of the manager, currently comprises five departments: finance, public works, assessment, planning, and engineering. The Mat-Su Borough School District administration operates schools throughout the borough and is directly responsible to the Borough Assembly. (ii) Communities in the Mat-Su Borough There are three incorporated communities within the Mat-Su Borough: Palmer, Wasilla, and Houston. Palmer is a first-class, home-rule city, and as such has all legislative powers not prohibited by law or charter. The city of Palmer has a Mayor-Manager-City Council form of government, with a part-time mayor and full-time city manager. The city operates a police station, water and sewer system, library, fire station, and garb'age collection service. The city of Wasilla is a second-class city, and has a part-time mayor and city council with a full-time city clerk. The second-class city of Houston has a part-time Mayor-City Council form of government, with a part-time city clerk. The Mat-Su Borough also contains several unincor- porated communities within its 23,000 square mi 1 es (59,800 square kilometers). These include the communities of Talkeetna, Trapper Creek, Big Lake, and Willow. Most of these are located by roads, but E-s-10 - - - - - - - - - - ..... - - -I - .. ., I - - 2. 2 -Employment, Population, Income, .and Other Trends ( i i i ) ( i v) the borough also contains bush communities, such as Skwentna and the 11 rail road communities 11 north of Talkeetna. Much of the borough is mountainous and very sparsely populated, and thus does not lend itself to the develorment of community organization. In 1981, residents of the Talkeetna area voted against incorporation as a first-class, home-rule city. Both Talkeetna and Trapper Creek have informal community councils which have been active in request- ing information on the Susitna project and its pro- bable impacts on these communities. Cantwell Cantwell is an unincorporated community in an un- organized borough, located about 10 road miles (16 km) north of the Mat-Su Borough• s northern boun- dary. Recently, residents of the community formed a non-profit corporation called Community of Cantwell, Inc. It was set up as an entity suitable for receipt of state grants for the community. Native Corporations In 1971, the Alaska Native Claims Settlement Act (ANCSA) was passed, creating thirteen Alaska Native regional corporations. The corporations were granted $962.5 million and 44 million acres (18 million ha) of 1 and. Each Alaskan Native is a shareholder of one of these corporations. The regional corporations are conventional private corporations, with the exception of a prohibition on the sale of stock until 1991. The corporations are not political institutions, but as a result of their large landholdings, they are becoming major political forces in Alaska. In the event that sufficient land is not available within a regional corporation•s designated area, the corporation is allowed to select lands in nearby areas within its own region. There have been great 'difficulties in adequately fulfilling the land entitlements of the Cook Inlet Region, Inc., (GIRl) because of the populated nature of the Cook Inlet region. In 1976, Congress authorized the Cook Inlet land swap, under which CIRI shifted much of its land entitlement (areas of land from which it is entitled to select its land holdings) into other regions, with the consent of the relevant regional corporations. E-5-11 2. 2 -Employment, Population, Income, and Other Trends Part of this land swap included land in the Mat-Su Borough, especially around the middle Susitna River. The shareholders of this corporation do not 1 ive in the local impact area. Cook Inlet Region, Inc., has, since that time, selected much of the 1 and in the middle and upper Susitna Basin, including land in and around the darn- sites. .Ailother regional corporation, Ahtna, Inc., owns approximately 54,000 acres (21,600 ha) of land around the Cantwell and Denali Highway areas. Approximately 72 members of Ahtna, Inc., live in Cantwel1 (which in 1971 was identifed by the U.S. Department of the Interior as a Native village). Further information on the 1 and holdings and sel ec- tions on Native corporations is found in Chapter 9 on Land Status. Both the CIRI and Ahtna regions have separate non- profit organizations, which manage the social, educa- tional, health and welfare problems of the natives in their regions, called the Cook Inlet Native Associa- tion and Copper River Native Association, respective- 1 y. {g) Public Facilities and Services This section describes existing public services at the community and borough level, to the detail appropriate to the degree of probable impact of the Susitna project. The services addressed include water supply, sewage treatment, solid waste disposal, transportation, police and fire pro- tection, health care services, education, and recreational facilities. Table E.5.5 summarizes the facilities available by community. Most of the communities in the 1 ocal impact area have 1 ittle in the way of public services. Almost all public facilities and services within the Mat-Su Borough will need to be ex- panded considerably to provide current per capita levels of service to a population that will be growing rapidly over the next twenty years, independent of the Susitna project. ln several areas, expansion is already being planned to accommodate this anticipated growth. (i) Water Supply and Sewage Treatment The cities of Palmer and Wasilla have water supply and chlorination treatment systems with peak capabil- E-5-12 - - - - - - - - - 2.2-Employment, Population, Income, and Other Trends ities of 1,368,000 gallons per day (gpd) (5,198,400 liters per day) and 864,000 gpd (3,283,200 liters per day), respectively. Other areas are provided with water on an individual basis by wells or by a community water system that serves a specific subdivision. Most areas of the borough have sufficient water availability. In the Trapper Creek area, potable water is sometimes difficult to locate, because of permafrost conditions and dissolved minerals ( Ma tan uska-Sus itna Borough Engineering Department 1983). Palmer has a city-wide sewage facility in the form of a two-cell 1 agoon. It currently processes 300,000 gallons per day (1,140,000 liters per day) of sewage with an average 30-day detention time. City offi- cials estimate that the present facilities can handle up to 500,000 gallons per day (1,900,000 liters per day) (Palmer City Manager October 15, 1981). It is estimated that this level will be reached by 1989. At that point, the system 1 S capacity will need to be augmented by adding at 1 east a third cell. In the Base Case, it is expected that growth in Wasilla will res u 1 t i n a r e q u i r em en t f o r c on s t r uc t i on o f a centralized sewage treatment facility (currently, residents use individual septic tanks). Residents of other areas rely on septic tanks. Since in most parts of the local impact areas inhabitants live on plots of 1 acre (0.4 ha) or more, it is pro- bable that residents will continue to rely on indi- vidual septic tanks. Community sewage systems become feasible only in areas of greater population density. Currently, the waste from septic tanks is trucked to Anchorage for disposal by private companies. Mat-Su Borough voters have authorized construction of a treatment plant in the borough. Some subdivisions and trailer parks are served by small public sewage systems. (ii) Solid Waste The Mat-Su Borough has non-areawide solid waste man- agement authority (i.e., outside incorporated commun- ities) and operates nine landfills comprising 217 acres (87 ha). In 1981, landfill capacity equaled about 1600 acre-feet (1,973,600 cubic meters). Each of the incorporated communities contracts with the. borough for use of the closest landfills. E-5-13 2. 2 -Employment, Population, Income, and Other Trends The borough intends to close most of these sites by 1987 and set up transfer stations. Final disposal wi 11 then take place at an 80-acre (32-ha) central site, near Palmer (Arctic Environmental Engineers 1977). Residents of the Cantwell area use a landfill site that is not maintained by any public authority and that is on privately owned land. The city of Palmer operates a collection and disposal system for city residents. In Cantwell and in the rest of the Mat-Su Borough, it is the responsibil iy of individuals to transport their waste to the vari'ous landfills. (iii) . Transportation -Road and Highway The Alaska Department of Tr an sportati on and Pub 1 ic Facilities is responsible for maintenance of the highways that run through the local impact area. The department currently operates year-round main- tenance stations at Cantwell, Chulitna, Talkeetna and Wi 11 ow. Road equipment works to the north and south of each station twenty-four hours a day (Alaska Department of Transportation and Public Facilities September 23, 1982). The Parks Highway is the principal surface trans- port route for the local impact area, linking it to both Fairbanks and Anchorage. The Parks Highway was built with a 1 arge amount of excess capacity relative to the traffic 1 evel s at the time of con- struction. Present levels constitute approximately ten percent of capacity, and without the Susitna project, the highway should have excess capacity through the year 2000 (Alaska Department of Trans- portation and Public Facilities, September 22, 1982). Two bottlenecks exist with the north-bound traffic on the Parks Highway at Anchorage and at Wasilla. A five-lane expansion of the Parks High- way in the Wasilla area (currently in the design stage with construction scheduled for 1983) by the Alaska Department of Transportation and Public Facilities is expected to relieve congestion there (Alaska Department of Transportation and Public Facilities September 21, 1982). E-5-14 - - - - - - - 2.2-Employment, Population, Income, and Other Trends During the summer months, the 160-mile (256-km) Class 2 gravel Denali Highway connects the Parks and Richardson Highways. In the winter, snow is not plowed on the Denali Highway", and it is, therefore, c 1 osed to traffic. Cantwell is 1 ocated at the junction of the Denali and Parks highways. Many of the homes in Cantwell are adjacent to the Denali Highway. Average daily traffic (ADT) data from the State Department of Highways, collected during 1981, report the following average annual daily traffic counts on the Parks Highway connecting Anchorage with the Denali Highway turn-off at Cantwell [M"ile 210 (km 336) from Anchorage]: Mile 35.95 (km 57.85) 1367 vehicles; Mile 150.58 (km 242. 33) -610 vehicles. On the Denali Highway between Cantwell and Fish Creek [Mile 6.9 (km 11.1) from Cantwell], ADT was reported to be 120 vehicles. Also, on the Denali Highway at Mile 93 (km 149), Maclaren River (the project access road lies in this segment), ADT of 50 vehicles was reported. The Department of Transportation did not provide information as to the vehicle mix within these counts. However, it can be assumed that the nature of the Parks Highway as the main connecting 1 ink between Anchorage and Fairbanks produces a moderate amount of routine truck traffic. The Denali High- way, on the other hand, is traveled primarily by tourists and hunters in passenger vehicles. Most 1 ocal roads in the area are not paved. In the Mat-Su Borough, there is currently a high demand for improved maintenance of existing roads and ex- pansion of maintenance to rural roads not currently maintained by the borough. In Cantwell, which is not part of an incorporated borough, local roads are largely unmaintained. As the Mat-Su Borough population grows (with or without the Susitna project), the skeletal frame- work of the transport system will need to be filled in and built up to meet the increased demands. In- crementally, as new subdivisions are created, addi- tional roads will be required. In addition, up- grading of some roads will be necessary and col- lector roads will be required to allow traffic to E-5-15 2.2-Employment, Population, Income, and Other Trends go to and from communities without entering Wasilla {Matanuska-Susitna Borough Service Area Coodinator December 1981). -Rail The Alaska Railroad runs 470 miles (756 km) from Seward and Anchorage to Fairbanks. It is federal- ly owned and operated, but transfer of the railroad to state ownership is now being discussed. Many major communities in the impact area are connected by the Alaska Railroad, which also provides access to a number of small communities which have no road access. Annual freight traffic volume varies between 1.8 and 2.3 million tons (1.6 and 2.1 million tonnes), and it is estimated that the system is working at only 20 percent capacity {Alaska Railroad January 1981). Daily Anchorage- Fairbanks and Anchorage-Whittier passenger service is provided during the summer months, with service being reduced to twice weekly during the winter. The passenger train wi 11 stop at any 1 ocation for embarking or disembarking passengers. -Air As shown in Table E.5.5, many communities have active airstrips designed for 1 ight propeller air- craft. Floatplanes are also common in areas with lakes. ~st public airports in the Mat-Su Borough and Cantwell are expected to be sufficient in their present or planned capacity to accommodate the additional needs of a growing population. There is, however, need for a new air facility to serve Wasilla. The existing facility is not easily ex- panded because of the terrain and 1 ack of avail ab 1 e 1 and. (iv) Police Pol ice protection in the Mat-Su Borough and Cantwell is provided by the Alaska State Troopers. There are 17 troopers stationed in Palmer, 3 in Trapper Creek, 1 in Cantwell, and 2 in Paxson. In addition, 5 other troopers are responsible for fish and wildlife pro- tection and enforcement. The city of Palmer has police powers and maintains a force of eight officers and several civil ian support personnel. There are 3 detention and correctional facilities in the Mat-Su E-5-16 - - - - ~"'"" - 2.2 -Empl oyrnent, Population, Income, and Other Trends ( v) Borough, and another prison is currently planned. Borough correctional facilities serve the whole Anchorage reg ion. Fire There are nine operating fire service areas in the Mat-Su Borough. Costs of fire protection are funded by special millage rates on assessed valuations with- in the service areas. With the goal of achieving a rating of 8 from the Insurance Service Organization (ISO), the maximum rating for areas without community water systems, the borough's fire chiefs in 1981 prepared a fire protection plan which proposes 12 additional stations and the purchase of new equipment for existing stations. All of the fire service areas within the borough rely on volunteer staffing. Residents of the Mat-Su Borough not within the bound- aries of a fire service area rely on their own resources and neighbor's volunteer assistance for fire protection. Cantwell has recently formed a fire service area and is in the process of procuring equipment and con- s t r uc t i n g a f i r e h a 11 • Th i s s t a t i on w i 11 r e 1 y on volunteer firefighters. Financial arrangements pertaining to the fire service area are discussed in Section 2.2.1 (h), Fiscal Conditions of Local Govern- ments. (vi) Health Care The 23-bed Valley Hospital, built in Palmer in 1954, provides ~cute and long-term care to residents of the Mat-Su Borough with a staff of 8 doctors. There is a satellite facility in Wasilla. M expansion of the hospital is currently underway; it will add 7 beds and additional space for equipment to the Valley facility and will enable the hospital to serve a borough population of up to 30,000. Mother addi- tion of 30 beds could be built at a later date (Valley Hospital October 14, 1982). The majority of the funds for this project were obtained directly or indirectly from the state. Standards for acute public health care focus on the capability of hospital facilities and staff to .accom- modate the expected number of patients without build- E-5-17 2.2-Employment, Population, Income, and Other Trends ing over-capacity that will then add to hospital costs. While rule-of-thumb bed multipliers of between 2.1 and 5.8 beds per 1000 population are often used in the literature, it has become appropri- ate to base the number of beds on a measure of the 1 ong-term averag·e daily census of patients using the hospital divided by the desirable occupancy rate. In Alaska, the recommended occupancy rates are 80 per- cent for. urban hospitals and 55 percent for rural hospitals. The formulas used to project the require- ments for hospital beds are displayed in Appendix 5.B. Ambulance service in the borough is provided through the Palmer Fire Center on a 24-hour basis. Each fire hall in the Mat-Su Borough, including the ones at Trapper Creek and Talkeetna, has an ambulance for emergency service and individuals who have received Emergency Medical Training (EMT). Public health centers are located in Palmer and Wasilla. There are also facilities in Wasilla which provide individual and group therapy, family and marital counseling, and alcohol and drug consul ta- t ion. The Palmer Pioneer Home provides long-term nursing and non-nursing care for the elderly. Cantwell has no medical care in the community, with the exception of an ambulance and several EMTs. The closest medical expertise is a doctor's assistant in Healy; most residents go to Anchorage or Fairbanks for medical care. There is a 1 ocal chapter of Alcoholics J\nonymous in Cantwell, as well. (vii) Education The Mat-Su Borough operates 17 schools: 12 elemen- tary schools, 2 junior high schools and 3 high schools. At the beginning of the 1981-1982 school year, enrollment totalled 4515 students. Plans call for expansion of existing facilities and construction of 3 new schools: an elementary school serving 400 pupils in Wasilla; a permanent elementary school in Trapper Creek for up to 150 students; and a secondary school initially accommodating 300 in the Houston area. The communities of Trapper Creek and Talkeetna each have elementary schools. Junior and senior high E-5-18 - - - - - - ~I -' - - r 2. 2 -Employment, Population, Income, and Other Trends (viii) school students from both communities attend Susitna Valley High School. The capacities and 1981 enrollments of these schools are displayed in Table E.5.6. The school at Cantwell is part of the Railbelt School District. It provides education for students in kindergarten through 12th grade. Current enroll- ment is 33 students. The school has capacity for about 60 students. Recreational Facilities Opportunities for outdoor recreation abound in the Matanuska-Susitna Borough and in the Cantwell area. The largest attraction in the region is Mount M:Kinley National Park and the surrounding Denali National Park and Preserve. Entrance to the park is off the Parks Highway, 26 miles ( 42 km) north of Cantwell. Denali State Park, located within the Mat-Su Borough, will eventually offer a variety of summer and winter recreational activities. Nancy Lake Recreation area south of Willow, the Lake Louise area in the south- eastern part of the borough, and the Big Lake area between Willow and Wasilla are other popular recrea- tional sites. There are relatively few local public recreational facilities in the borough, but plans call for future development of playgrounds and neighborhood parks in conjunction with school complexes {Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District October 1981). {h) Fiscal Conditions of Local Governments Information on current 1 evel s of revenues and expenditures was derived from examination of the budgets of the Mat-Su Borough and the incorporated communities and conversations with key public officials. (i) Mat-Su Borough -Revenues There are generally four major fund categories in the budget: E-5-19 2.2-Employment, Population, Income, and Other Trends • The General Fund The general fund constititutes about 36 percent of total revenues and has several fund sources. Property taxes contribute approximately 37 per- cent of general fund revenues and are raised by a mill rate of 6.7 per 1000 assessed valuation. Another 20 percent of the borough general fund revenues is contributed by municipal assistance funds from the state. Other major sources of general fund revenues are state-shared and federally shared revenues • • Service Areas Fund According to the 1981-82 annual budget there are 6 fire service areas, 16 road service areas, and 2 special service areas. The borough has the power to levy taxes in these areas to raise reve- nues to provide the services. About 30 percent of the service areas fund comes from property taxes. The balance, or 70 percent, is provided by state-shared funds and municipal assistance revenues. The service areas fund accounts for only 3 percent of total borough revenues • • Land Management Fund Like the service areas fund, the land management fund contributes only three percent to the bor- ough budget. The sources of these funds include state grants, recording and land management fees, and others • • Education Operating Fund This fund constitutes well over half the borough budget. It is estimated that as much as 58 per- cent of the total budget is made up of the educa- tion fund. The state is the major contr·ibutor primarily through the Foundation Program. In 1981/1982, the Foundation Program was estimated to provide $14.37 million to the school district. -Expenditures Expenditures for 1981 were estimated at $16.7 million in the general fund area, $4.4 million for the service areas fund, and $1.1 million for land E-5-20 - - ..... - - - - - - ..... - ~. I r I - ..... 2.2-Employment, Population, Income, and Other Trends ( i i ) ( i i i ) management. The biggest expenditure item for the borough is the school district fund. In turn, the largest expenditure items for the school district are regular instruction, which accounts for 33 percent, support services (18 percent), and operations and maintenance (19 percent). The balance of expenditures is divided among vocational education, special education, and miscellaneous services. The 1981 budget figures for the borough show un- equal revenues and expenditures. Deficits have not been a problem, especially in the recent past (Matanuska-Susitna Borough Finance Director December 1982). Apparently, state grants have been responsible for bridging the gap. Whether or not deficit~ become a problem in the future may depend on whether the state continues to provide this cushion when the want or need arises. Talkeetna Talkeetna is currently unincorporated and has no powers to 1 ev y taxes. Ta 1 keetn a receives services from the borough based on three service areas. These include a fire service area, Talkeetna flood control area, and the greater Ta"lkeetna road service area. Total revenues in 1981 for the three service areas were, respectively, $26,142, $1,106 and $45,820. The major sources were local taxes, except in the case of road service where the entire $45,820 carne from state general revenues. Expenditures were $20,176 for fire service, $576 for flood control, and $45,820 for road service. Trapper Creek Trapper Creek, as an unincorporated community, has no direct fi seal responsibilities and depends entirely on the borough for services. (iv) Cantwell Cantwell is an unincorporated community in an unor- ganized borough and as such has no local government. The community, through the Community of Cantwell, Inc., applied for three grants for 1982: a one-time per capita grant of $89,000; a grant for establish- E-5-21 2.2-Employment, Population, Income, and Other Trends ment of a fire hall for $87,000 from the Department of Community and Regional Affairs; and a Public Safe Water grant from the Department of Environmental Conservation (Community of Cantwell, Inc. September 1982). The only revenue upon which the community can depend on an annual basis is state-shared revenue; this usually amounts to between $25,000 to $32,000 per community (Alaska Department of Community and Regional Affairs November 1, 1982). It is expected that about $3000 to $5000 wi 11 be needed on an annual basis for operations and maintenance of the fire hall, and the community is planning a variety of fund-raising measures to raise that reveniJe. In addition, there is a native village COIJncil in Cantwell which has, in the past, also served as a vehicle for accepting per capita and other state grants for the community. Two such grants were channeled through the council: one to install a powerline from a local generator to households in the community, and the other for materials used to construct the community hall. Residents of Cantwell belong to the Railbelt School District, which is a Rural Education Attendance Area that has no taxing authority and is responsible directly to the state 1 egisl ature. The school dis- trict budget for the 1982-83 school year was esti- mated at $3,786,770, of which approximately 7 percent is earmarked for operating expenses of the school at Cantwell. Approximately 87 percent of the school district's revenue comes from the state government; 4 percent from 1 ocal sources; and 8 percent from the federal government (Railbelt School District Superin- tendent September 30, 1982). (i) Electric Power The Matanuska-Susitna Borough is serviced by power from the Matanuska Electric Association (MEA}, a cooperative located in Palmer. In 1980, the MEA served 12,969 customers in 3,360 square miles (8740 square kilometers) of south-central Alaska. Wholesale power is purchased primarily from Chugach Electric Association's (CEA) natural gas-fired turbines at Beluga and Bernice Lake, as well as from the Alaska Power Administration's Ekl utna hydroplant and a small hydroelec- tric operation at Cooper Lake located on the Kenai Peninsu- la. The MEA sold about 250 million kilowatt hours (250 Gwhr) of electricity in 1981. The MEA currently has an E-5-22 - -I I ' - - -I i I l - - I~ .... r r 2.2-Employment, Population, Income, and Other Trends 11 all requirements 11 contract with the CEA. Under this agree- ment, CEA will sell all the power MEA needs, to the extent it can. The community of Cantwell currently does not have access to electric power. Residents rely on individual generators. The community has been seeking a commercial source of power for several years. 2.2.2-Regional Recent trends in the population, employment, and per capita income of the regional impact area are displayed graphically in Figure £.5.3. (a) Employment Table E. 5. 7 presents data on no nag ricul tural employment for the Rai ·1 belt. Employment inc rea sed by 39 percent between 1970 and 1975, and by an additional 14 percent between 1975 and 1979. Construction, service and support sectors represent 1 arge percentages of employment in the reg ion. Employment in the Mchorage Region accounted for 69 percent of Railbelt employment in 1979. For 1970, 1975, and 1979, labor force and unemployment were as listed below. Rail belt Labor Force Unemployment Anchorage Labor Force Unemployment 1970 79,347 9.9% 51' 398 8.3% 1975 110,283 6.1% 65,938 5.9% Fairbanks and Southeast Fairbanks Labor Force Unemployment (b) Population 18,003 10.4% 27,030 4.7% 1979 126,110 9.0% 78,822 7.1% 22,589 12.2% Population in the regional impact area rose from 204,523 in 1970 to 284,166 in 1980. The Railbelt contains over 70 percent of the state's population, the majority centered in E-5-23 2.2-Employment, Population, Income, and Other Trends the greater Anchorage area. Within the greater Anchorage area, there has been a gradual shift in the relative shares of population that 1 ive within the municipality and in nearby areas. The Kenai and Mat-Su Borough census divisions have grown more rapidly than the city itself, and now account for 10.3 and 8.2 percent of the Anchorage region,. respectively. Population in the Railbelt is expected to rise from. 284,166 in 1980 to 483,686 in 2000. The population growth rate is projected to be greater during the 1980s than the 1990s. This growth is expected to result from natural resource development projects in various parts of the state. The population in the Fairbanks region is projected to be about 77,600 in 1988. Population growth after 1988 will average about 1.5 percent. The Anchorage region will experience a pattern similar to the Railbelt as a whole--relatively rapid growth during the mid 1980s and then an average annual growth rate of about 2 percent during the 1990s. The f>.nchorage region population of 375,000 in the year 2000 will account for 75 percent of the Railbelt•s population. (c) Income In the Rail belt, personal income on a per capita basis rose from $4,940 in 1970 to $11,243 in 1976 and has remained close to that level since. In 1978, average per capita income in the region equaled $11,522. In real terms, per capita income rose by 36 percent between 1970 and 1978. (d) Housing The Railbelt contained approximately 98,350 households and 119,555 housing units in 1981. Anchorage and Fairbanks represented the 1 argest concentrations of housing in the region. As shown in Table E.5.8, the municipality of Anchorage con- tained 65,771 civilian housing units, of which 46 percent were single-family units, 12 percent mobile homes, and 42 percent were in multifamily buildings. Between 1975 and 1981, the civilian housing stock in the city increased by 35 percent. Most of this growth occurred during the construc- tion boom associated with the TAPS pipeline. The vacancy rate in Anchorage has in recent years fluctuated from a low of one percent in 1975 to a high of about 11 percent in E-5-24 - - - - ..., - ..... r .... I - ·"""" 2.2-Employment, Population, Income, and Other Trends 1980. In July of 1982, a survey done for the municipality indicated a census-defined vacancy rate of 5.8 percent. In the municipality of Fairbanks, housing stock in 1978 stood at 7,351 (see Table E.5.9). Multifamily units accounted for 43 percent of the total. Vacancy rates have risen in the post-pipeline period, but not as dramatically as in Anchorage. The overall vacancy rate rose from a. low of 0.4 percent in 1976 to 9.1 percent in 1980. 2. 2. 3 -State Recent trends in the population, employment, and per capita in- come of the state are displayed graphically in Figure E.5.4. (a) Employment (b) Alaska's economy has historically been dependent upon devel- opment of its natural resources, primarily fisheries, miner- als and timber. As a result, employment has been o ri en ted towards these consumptive and extractive industries. The military has played a major role since World War II. In recent years, employment in state and 1 ocal government has increased dramatically. ·In addition, employment in service and support sectors of the Alaska economy is increasing, reflecting the maturation of the state's economy. Impact of the trans-Alaska pipeline is evident in the ern- pl oyment figures shown in Table E. 5.10. Between 1970 and 1975, a pipeline-induced growth spurt caused employment to increase by 75 percent. From 1975 to 1980, however, total employment increased by only 2. 9 percent. In 1981, Alaskan employment equaled 194,000; the annual average unemployment rate in that year was 9.2 percent. Population The population of Alaska has risen steadily since the 1940s; yet this 1 argest state of the United States is still the least populous with an estimated 1980 population of 400,031. Alaska's population grew by 32 percent between 1970 and 1980, jumping by 50,000 between 1975 and 1976 alone. Most of the population is in the South-central -Fairbanks region (the Railbelt), and half of the states' citizens reside in Anchorage. E-5-25 2. 2 -Employment, Population, Income, and Other Trends (c) Income The average per capita personal income in the state rose from $4,638 in 1970 to $10,254 in 1976. Since completion of the pipeline, however, the pace of increase has slowed. Per capita income in Alaska averaged $11,150 in 1979. The real increase in per capita personal income during the nine-year period was 27 percent. E-5-26 - - - - - - - - - .... ..... - .... - 3 -EVALUATION OF THE IMPACT OF THE PROJECT Tables E.5.11 through E.5.18 present an overview of impacts of the project on the Mat-Su Boro~gh as a whole, on particular communities in the local impact area, and on the region. Emphasis is placed on 1990 and 1999, the two peak years of construction. As these tables show, it is anticipated that the impacts of the project on socioeconomic condi- tions will be greatest in the communities of Trapper Creek, Talkeetna, and Cantwell, because of their proximity to the site and their rela- tively sma 11 s i ze. Impacts of the project were evaluated by comparing the projected condi- tions without the project to expected project-induced changes. The future without the Susitna hydro development was projected in order to perform two objectives: to put the changes expected to result from the project into perspective, and to estimate when threshold levels of publicfacilities and services (i.e., levels of population at which additional facilities are required) would be reached as a result of the cumulative impacts of other projects plus the Susitna project. 3.1-Impact of In-migration of People on Governmental Facilities and Services 3.1.1-Introduction In the sections below, the expected impacts of the project on key public facilities and services in the local impact area are dis- c us sed. Information is given on the impacts of both the popul a- tion influx associated with the direct construction work force and the in-migrating population associated with support workers (i.e., workers employed by private suppliers of equipment or materials for the project and workers employed by service indus- tries whose increase in business is related to increased demands for goods and services by construction workers). The population influx includes workers and their dependents on all portions of the project (including workers on the access road, rail sidings, damsites, transmission lines, etc.). In general, the impacts of the project on local facilities and services will be mitigated by the provision of worker housing and extensive facilities and services at the work sites. Thus, the impacts on the nearby communities will be limited in the main to the effects related to the direct and support workers who choose to relocate their permanent residence and families to these communities. In addition, there will be a limited economic con- traction on most parts of the 1 ocal impac.t area as construction of each phase of the project terminates because of the buffering effect of the expected continued increase of the population that will occur as a result of other projects and continued suburbani- zation of the Mat-Su Borough. E-5-27 3.1-Impact of In-migration 3.1.2-Methodology The projections of population influx associated with the project rely greatly on several important assumptions regarding work force characteristics, distribution of workerS 1 settlement, and policy decisions related to the project. Population influx estimates were calculated by using the following assumptions: (a) Base Case Population Projections Population projections for the different impact areas were conducted using percentage growth measures that were devel- oped by examining growth trends over the past 15 years and modifying them to reflect the probability of growth in the future. These projections relied to a large extent on pro- jections of growth in the Railbelt region and in the state by the Institute for Social and Economic Research at the University of Alaska (Goldsmith and Hyskey May 1980). (b) Population Influx Associated with the Direct Work Force It was assumed that 90 percent of the direct workers who in-migrate into the region will be accompanied by depen- dents. Since housing will be provided onsite, there will be little incentive for most single workers who come from out- side the Railbelt region to establish residence in a nearby community. On the other hand, in-migrating direct workers with families who cannot obtain family housing onsite will be more likely to desire housing for their dependents in the region. It should also be noted that a large percentage of the work force for this project will be skilled tradesmen, and such workers are more likely to have families than unskilled construction laborers. An assumption of 2.11 dependents per accompanied construc- tion worker was used to calculate the population influx associated with the direct work force. This figure is an average derived from a survey of construction projects throughout the United States that was performed for the U.S. Corps of Engineers (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers June 1981). The resultant population-per-household figures differ from the household size projected for the state of Alaska; the specific construction worker measure was used, since con- struction workers have been observed to have characteristics slightly different from the population as a whole. No spe- cific data on characteristics of construction workers in Alaska are available at this time. E-5-28 - - - - - - - .... - - ..... .... 3.1 -Impact of In-migration Further explanation of the methodology used to determine the number and distribution of in-migrating direct workers can be found in Section 3.3 and Appendix 5.A. (c) Population Influx Associated with the Support Work Force In order to calculate the population influx associated with the support work force, the population-per-household measures that were projected for the state under the Base Case (declining at a constant rate from 2.829 in 1988 to 2.657 in the year 2000) were multiplied by the estimated number of in-migrating support workers. It was assumed that these workers would have the same general demographic characteristics as present residents. The popul ati on-per-household measures were derived from a study done by the Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER) to project electricity demand in the Railbelt. In the ISER model, the average number of people per household is estimated to decline by 20 percent over the next 20 years and is consistent with the projected decline in the national level of niJ11ber of persons per household (Goldsmith and Hyskey May 1980). Further explanation of the methodology used to determine the number and distribution of in-migrating support workers can be found in Section 3.3. (d) Public Facilities and Services Public facility and service impacts have been estimated using the following approach: (1) Appropriate per capita standards were developed, based upon an ex ten siv e 1 iterature review and the input of local officials; (2) the adequacy of existing facilities and services were assessed; and (3) estimates of future needs related to natural growth and to project-induced population influx have been compared with present and planned capacity. Details of the methodology used can be found in Appendix 5.B. Important items of methodological literature reviewed in the course of this work include Anderson and Chalmers (1977), Burchell and Listokin (1978), Leistritz and Murdock (1981), and Stenehjern and Metzger (1980) • E-5-29 3.1 -Impact of In-migration 3.1 .3-Watana Construction Phase (a) Local (i) Mat-Su Borough In most areas of the Mat-Su Borough, the population influx related to the project will only add slightly to the substantial increases in need for public fa- cilities and services that will result from the popu- lation growth projected under the Base Case. In con- trast, the large proportional increase of population into the borough communities of Trapper Creek and Talkeetna will have 1 arger impacts on the needs for public facilities and services. These impacts are discussed in detail in the sections that follow. -Magnitude of Population Influx Population influx into the Mat-Su Borough is shown in Table E.5.19. As a result of construction of the project, the population of the Mat-Su Borough is expected to increase by a cumulative total of up to 5356 in 1990, including new onsite and offsite residents. It is forecast that about 1390 people will resettle in communities in the borough (off- site) by 1990. Of this offsite in-migrant popula- tion, approximately 1025 people (74 percent) will be direct workers and their families, and about 365 (26 percent) will be support workers and their de- pendents. The new offsite population would repre- sent an increase of 3.2 percent over base case pro- jection of population in 1990, and would result in a total borough population of 44,353 in that year (excluding the work camp/work village). Over 90 percent of the project-induced population influx will ace ur between 1986 and 1990, and over 40 per- cent in 1987 alone. The Su sitna project will be only one of several factors contributing to the borough• s projected rapid rate of growth during the 1985-1990 period. With construction of the project, population in the borough will increase by about 15,721 between 1985 and 1990, of which approximately 11,760 wil1 be related to baseline growth and 5356 will be pro- ject-related. Spillover growth from Anchorage is expected to be one of the most important factors behind this growth. E-5-30 - - - - - - - - - 3.1-Impact of In-migration The population influx into the incorporated communities is expected to be small; between 1985 and 1990, the project will result in an increase of approximately 50 people in Palmer, 45 in Houston, and about 60 in Wasilla. Over 50 percent of the in-migrant population in the borough is expected to settle in the Trapper Creek-Talkeetna area, and the remainder will probaly establish homes in the area around Wi 11 ow and rvbntana creeks and the suburban area surrounding Palmer and Wasilla. Between 1990 and 1993, the population in the borough related to the project will decline along with the decline in work force at the Watana site. Overall, however, the population of the borough is expected to continue to increase during this period. -Water Supply and Sewage Treatment The water supply and sewage treatment needs of the project and of the work force and families 1 iving at the Watana site will be provided for by the pro- ject contractors. There will be no impact on public facilities in Mat-Su Borough. The population influx associated with in-migrant workers who establish residences in the borough will have only a slight impact on the public water and sewage systems. In Palmer, water consumption at the peak of construction at the Watana site (1990) would rise by 1.2 percent over the base case projection of 608,000 gallons per day (2,310,400 1 iters per day). Water usage requirements were projected using an average daily water consumption of 120 gallons per day per (456 liters per day) capita in 1981, rising to 150 gallons per day (570 liters per day) in 2000. Population ·influx into Palmer w·i 11 result in an average increase in sewage treatment requirements of 6000 gal ions per day (22,800 '1 iters per day), which is 1.1 percent above the 1990 baseline pro- jection level. The population influx during 1985- 1990 will occur at a time when existing facilities are already reaching their 1 imi ts, and a third sewage treatment cell will be required (with or without the project). These projections were based upon a standard of 120 gallons per day (456 liters per day) per c~pita. E-5-31 3.1 -Impact of In-migration -Solid Waste The solid waste requirements of personnel and de- pendents living at the construction work sites will be taken care of at the camp and village, and will have no significant impacts on public facilities in the Mat-Su Borough. It is estimated that the population influx into the borough communities associated with the project will increase the annual landfill needs of the borough by a cumulative amount of 1. 27 acres (0. 51 ha) between 1985 and 1993. This represents a two percent increase over the baseline projection for that period. This population increase may contribute to a slight advance in requirements for additional landfill acreage, which is expected to be needed under base case conditions around 1994-1995. -Law Enforcement The State Trooper force in Trapper Creek will need to be enlarged by one trooper as result of the project to reflect the growing population in the northern part of the borough (around Trapper Creek and Talkeetna). Pol ice protection provided by the project and by the Cantwell State Trooper station can be expected to handle the population at the project site (although the onsite population will be located in the Mat-Su Borough, the Cantwell station will be the closest station by road). ftn average rural standard of one officer per thou- sand population was used to project law enforcement requirements in the northern part of the borough; for the base case pol ice requi rernents shown in Table E. 5.11, a standard of· l. 5 pol icemen per thousand population was used in the southern part of the borough and 1.0 pol iceman per thousand in the rural northern part. -Fire Protection The project facilities and work camp/family village will be protected by firefighting equipment and personnel at the work sites; there will be 1 ittle impact on existing service areas. E-5-32 - - - - ''"'' .... - - - - '- - - i 3.1-Impact of In-migration Fire protection planning in rural areas such as the Mat-Su Borough is more dependent on the distance of facilities from population centers than on the size of population. Since in-migrants are expected to settle into existing housing or housing on 1 and that is already subdivided, there will be little impact on fire protection facilities in most communities. Firefighters will continue to be, for the most part, volunteers. -Health Care The work camp/family village at the construction site will provide facilities for health care, including a 20-bed hospital. It is expected that there will be 1 ittl e impact by the construction- site population on the Mat-Su Borough•s health facilities, with the exception of cases of major illness or accidents which cannot adequately be handled by the site hospital. The population influx into Mat-Su Borough communi- ties associated with the project is expected to raise the number of hospital beds needed in 1990 by about one. Under the base case, a new hospital is projected to be needed by 1990. The population influx associated with the project may accelerate this developnent by a year. Appendix 5.B contains an explanation of the formula used to project hos- pital requirements in rural areas of Alaska. There has been some social impact research con- ducted which suggests that rapid growth in a com- munity and the stress associated with rapid change can result in increases in the incidence of many 11 people problems,. such as divorce, alcoholism, child abuse, and suicide. In most parts of the borough, growth related to the Susitna project will only represent a fraction of the growth and change that are expected to take place. Thus, impacts of the project on social services in the southern part of the borough are expected to be minimal. In the areas surrounding Trapper Creek and Talkeetna, the need for social services may become more pro- nounced. E-5-33 3.1-Impact of In-migration -Education School-age children at the construction site will be educated at facilities that will be built as part of the project facilities but will probably be operated as part of the Mat-Su Borough school dis- trict. It is estimated that by 1990 there will be approximately 300 schoolchildren living at the family village. Based upon Mat-Su Borough School District planning standards described in Appendix 5. B, there waul d be a need for approximately 13-14 teachers. There wi 11 be an approximate increase of 200 primary school children and 160 secondary school children accompanying in-migrants into communities in the Mat-Su Borough between 1985 and 1990. It is estimated that there will be a need for 8 addition- al primary school classrooms and teachers and 8 secondary class rooms and teachers, in addition to the 216 primary school and 230 secondary school classrooms which will be needed to accommodate growth between 1981 and 1990, under the base case. The nt.mber of school-age children associated with direct construction workers was projected using an average 0.86 schoolchild per accompanied in- migrant worker. Projections of base case enroll- ment and enrollment associated with the in-migrant support work force used an estimated ratio of school-age children to population of 22.8 percent through 1987, rising to 25 percent of population in 2000. These ratios are based upon the Mat-Su Borough's planning standards. -Public Recreation Facilities Chapter 7, Recreational Resources, provides a des- cription of the recreation plan that will be part of the project design. This plan includes provi- sion of recreational facilities at the work camps and family village as well as the devel OJ)Tlent of new recreational opportunities for the public. The intent of the recreation plan is to satisfy recrea- tional demand created by hydroelectric development and to offer compensation for recreational oppor- tunities lost as a result of the development. Chapter 7 also describes the impacts of the project (both positive and negative) on existing recrea- tional resources in the Upper Susitna Basin. E-5-34 - - - - - ., - - - - , .... - - - 3.1 -Impact of In-migration The project-induced population influx into borough communities will represent 3.2 percent of borough population in 1990. This additional population will have a slight impact on the requirements for public recreational facilities in the borough, such as parks, athletic fields, etc. -Transportation The Susitna Hydroelectric Project includes the con- struction of a road into an area that currently has no auto access. If a policy decision is made to allow public access to this road upon completion of the project, the result will be a major addition to the local transportation system. In addition, a portion of the Denali Highway will be cleared of snow in the winter as part of the project construc- tion effort, and this will provide additional road access to nearby residents during the winter. Almost all of the project-related supplies and equipment will be transported by rail to Cantwell, and then by truck to the Watana work site. The rail system is currently underutil i zed and the in- creased revenues are expected to benefit the rail- road. An increase in vehicular traffic on the Parks High- way, the Denali Highway and nearby roads will result to the extent that workers commuting to and from the site drive to pick-up points. In general, the Parks Highway is currently only 10 percent utilized, and this increase in traffic is not expected to have any adverse impacts. The current congested portion of the highway near Was ill a should be relieved by the expansion of the highway in that area that is now underway. The project caul d add to congestion on weekends during the summer, unless the scheduling of commuting workers is conducted so as to avoid those periods. Projected traffic estimates have been developed which assume the following: a single-status camp is provided for 1 aborers and most of the semi- skilled/skilled workers; a village with family housing facilities is provided for some of the semi-skilled/skilled workers and all of the engi- neering/administrative workers who desire it; there are recreational and other facilities at the work E-5-35 3.1-Impact of In-migration camp and village that will help provide for a pleasant environment for the workers; the rotation schedule and number of shifts per day are unspecified; and most of the work force travels to the construction sites by private vehicles and some travel by organized air or bus service from Anchorage and, possibly, Fairbanks. Tables E.5.20 and E.5.21 show the daily estimated traffic volumes for the Denali Highway and for the project access road. Appendix 5.0 lists the speci- fic assumptions which underlie these estimates. Projected increases were not estimated for the Parks Highway, since the Department of Transporta- tion is confident that the addition of project- related traffic to projected traffic without the project will in no way exceed the design capacity of the h i g h way • These estimates are for the peak year (1990) and the peak season (July-August), and they include traffic projections for traffic that is not related to the project. They indicate that the heaviest average daily traffic volumes which can be antici- pated, assuming one vehicle per commuting worker, are: 794 passenger vehicles and 90 heavy and light trucks on the Oenal i Highway Cantwell to Fish Creek segment; 604 passenger vehicles and 90 heavy and light trucks on the Denali Highway Fish Creek to Maclaren River segment; and 654 passe11ger vehicles and 90 heavy and light trucks on the access road. Should a Project Transportation Program be insti- tuted, these volumes will be lower to the extent such a program provides for pooling (more workers per vehicle) and/or alternate transportation means for workers and materials. Compared to these project-generated peak volumes, the Department of Transportation has projected average daily traffic volumes (ADT) on the Denali Highway Cantwell to Fish Creek segment to be 320 vehicles, and on the Fish Creek to Maclaren River segment (access road to the project lies in this segment) to be 130 vehicles. These projections are exclusive of any project-related traffic. Project-generated increases in vehicular traffic on the Parks Highway and Denali Highway will entail additional maintenance requirements by the Mainten- E-5-36 - -I - - - - - - - , ... 3.1 -Impact of In-migration ance and Operations Division of the Alaska Department of Transportation, especially during the months of heavy snowfall. Currently, the Denali Highway is not cleared of snow during the winter months and is all owed to close in the fall. During summer months, graders work the gravel surface of the highway on a daily basis. Initially, maintenance of the access road will be the Contractor's responsibility. If and when the Department of Transportation and Public Facilities assumes responsibility for maintenance of the pro- ject access road, the Division will be required to service it as well. Regardless of the servicing entity, state funds will undoubtedly provide for an access road maintenance program both during and after project construction. The final maintenance plan has yet to be detennined. (ii) Trapper Creek The small, remote, and unincorporated nature of the community contributes to a low current level of available public facilities and services. A major impact of the increase in population in Trapper Creek may be an increased need for services that are cur- rently not available, such as fire protection and closer proximity to medical care. -Magnitude of Population Influx Trapper Creek will experience the largest relative population impacts of all the communities in the Mat-Su Borough by virtue of its location in the northern part of the borough on the Parks Highway. The population impact is displayed by year in Table E. 5. 22. Between 1985 and 1990, it is projected that under the base case the population of this small com- munity will increase by about 75 people, bringing the 1990 population to 320. With construction of the Watana portion of the project, population in the area around Trapper Creek is expected to reach almost 800 by 1990. This would be an ·increase of 150 percent over the community's projected popula- tion without the project in that year. The largest single annual increase in population is expected to occur in 1987. E-5-37 3.1-Impact of In-migration Direct workers and their families will account for about 50 percent of the in-mig rant population ' related to the project. Trapper Creek is projected to receive a relatively large increase in support employees and population as result of the community•s location on the Parks Highway, its relatively large expected influx of direct construction workers, and the 1 imited number of retail and service businesses currently located in the area. Trapper Creek will experience a lull period between 1991 and 1995, during which time approximately 225 project-related individuals are expected to 1 eave {47 percent of the population that is projected to have in-migrated as result of the project). Growth expected under the baseline protection will only partially compensate for this decline. -Water, Sewage, and Solid Waste In Trapper Creek, water and sewage needs are met by individual wells and septic tanks, and solid waste is disposed at a nearby 1 andfill run by the bor- ough. Few impacts from the increased population are expected. One resident has mentioned that it is possible the added population will exacerbate present problems of insufficient ground water dur- ing dry spells. Mat-Su Borough officials have indicated that the water supply should be suffi- cient for a population increase of that magnitude, though suitable ground water sources may take some effort to locate because of the geology of that area (dissolved manganese and permafrost condi- tions). Rapid growth can have the potential for hastily built housing developments that do not meet health standards for wells, septic tanks, and/or solid waste disposal. It is anticipated that borough and state oversight of growth in the Trapper Creek area could prevent such problems from occurring. This need for supervision could affect officials in the Mat-Su Borough or the Alaska Department of Environ- mental Conservation. E-5-38 - - - ~. - - - - - - 3.1 -Impact of In-migration -Trans po,rtat ion Increased vehicle traffic on the Parks Highway is expected. The addition of housing units may result in the need for additional roads to serve them; in the Mat-Su Borough, this is the responsibility of subdivision developers. -Police Protection The Susitna project and the accompanying increase in the population of the northern part of the bor- ough may induce an enlargement of the State Trooper substation at Trapper Creek, thus resulting in in- creased police presence in the community. -Fire Protection Trapper Creek currently has no active fire protec- tion facilities. The present small size of the community has limited its ability to support a fire service area. There is an existing building that could be used if a new service area were developed. The population influx into Trapper Creek will exac- erbate the need for active fire facilities in the community. It is possible that the additional population added to the natural growth over the 1983-1990 period could result in additional ability of the residents to support a fire service area. A well which could supply the necessary water for a fire station may take some exploration to locate, but Mat-Su Borough officials believe that suffi- cient water is available. -Health Care With the exception of an ambulance, no formal health care facilities are currently available in Trapper Creek. Residents of the area with medical training help out on an informal basis (without pay) when needed, and health care facilities in Wasilla and Palmer are utilized. Growth of the community resulting from both base- line forecast growth and project-related in-migra- tion is expected put a strain on this informal system of medical care. The community may want to request the establishment of a Public Health Service office in the future. E-5-39 3.1-Impact of In-migration In addition, the stress associated with rapid change may result in increased need for provision of some social services in Trapper Creek and surrounding areas. -Education The 6-cl assroom elementary school currently under construction in Trapper Creek will have an initial capacity of 100 students, and could be expanded to accommodate up to 200 students. The project-related population increase will in- clude an increase in student enrollment at the ele- mentary sc hoo 1 of between 65 and 85 students by 1990, over the base case projection of about 80 in that year. The result will be a need for expansion of the school in the late 1980s and addition of 3 or 4 teachers. In addition, about 60 junior and senior high school students 1 iv ing with project-related families in Trapper Creek are expected to be added to the enrollment of Susitna Valley High School by 1990. (iii) Talkeetna -Magnitude of Population Influx Between 1983 and 1990, an estimated population in- flux into Talkeetna of 335 people is expected to occur as a result of the project (see Table E.5.23 for annual population projections). This will rep- resent a 34 percent increase over the baseline forecast 1 ev el of 1000. Of these 335 new resi- dents, 80 percent are projected to comprise direct construction workers and their families, and 20 percent wi 11 be support workers and their dependents. Water and Sewage Talkeetna is served by independent wells and septic tanks; there is a potential for problems in the "downtown 11 area because of the small size of the lots on which houses are built and the proximity of wells to septic tanks. This would not be a problem in the outlying areas around Ta 1 keetna where the plots of land are usually larger. E-5-4J - - - - - f"''' - - 3.1 -Impact of In-migration It is not possible to predict with certainty where new residents in Talkeetna will settle. To the extent that project-related in-migrant population settles in the town itself, this group of people wi 11 contribute to the need for central water and sewage systems. It is possible that quickly con- structed housing will need to be closely supervised to ensure compliance with health standards regard- ing wells and septic tanks. This need for super- vision could affect officials in the Mat-Su Borough or the Alaska Department of Environmental Conserva- tion. -Solid Waste The peak population influx into Talkeetna associ- ated with the project will occur just around the time that the borough•s landfill near Talkeetna is scheduled to be closed (1987-1989). A new landfill or a transfer station will be needed at that time. The additional population is not expected to have any adverse impacts. -Transportation A 1 arge amount of the supplies and equipment for construction of the dams will be transported by railroad. This is not expected to have any adverse effects on rail service for Talkeetna residents. As the population increases and new housing is con- structed, there will be increased need for con- strue ti on and maintenance of roads in Ta 1 keetna and the surrounding area. However, baseline forecast growth is expected to cause a large part of this increased need. Construction of new roads to service subdivisions will be the responsibility of individual developers, and maintenance of local roads will be administered by the borough through the Talkeetna Road Service Area. -Police Protection As Talkeetna grows, there may be a community desire for a police presence closer than the Trapper Creek station. The additional 34 percent population in- flux associated with the project between 1985 and 1990 and the proximity of the work camp to the com- munity may further rein force this tendency. Inc or- E-5-41 3.1-Impact of In-migration poration of the community would be a prerequisite to the establishment of a local police force. {In 1981, the community turned down a ballot measure to incorporate. It is difficult to predict the point at which incorporation will occur.) -Fire Protection Increased population is not expected to affect the firefighting facilities in the area; these are plan ned on the basis of distance between the sta- tion and population centers and on the availability of pumped water. The plan ned addition-of equipment to the Talkeetna fire station should be sufficient to serve the community until such time as a commu- nity water system is put in place. Adequate water is available to keep the storage tank and pumper truck full. -Health Care Residents of Talkeetna currently use the health care facilities in Anchorage and the southern part of the borough. The population influx related to the project, along with base case projected growth, may result in sufficient demand to warrant some provision of medical care in the community by a private doctor. In addition, the stress associated with rapid change may result in increased need for provision of some social services in and around Talkeetna.· -Education The population influx associated with the project will include approximately 48 primary school-age children by 1990, just as the enrollment in the elementary school in Ta"lkeetna is projected to ex- ceed its capacity of 120 (the predicted base case enrollment in the school in 1990 is 126). Addi- tional classroom space and approximately two teachers will be required. There will be an additional 41 secondary students from Talkeetna attending Susitna Valley High School by 1990 as a result of the project. Together with the additional enrollment at that school of 58 stu- dents from Trapper Creek families, the project- E-5-42 - - - -' - - - - - - ,... I 3. 1 -Impact of In-migration ( iv) induced increase in enrollment is expected to equal about 100 students. This will increase total enrollment at Susi tna Valley from the base case projection of 200 to over 300 in 1990. The school has a capacity of 180 students. Under the base case, additional classroom space is expected to be needed around 1988-89. With the project, enrollment is projected to exceed present capacity one year earlier. At the height of the Watana peak, project-induced enrollment will result in the need for 5 more teachers and classrooms than will be needed under the base case. Cantwell -Magnitude of Population Influx One component of the project-related population influx into Cantwell w"il 1 be the workers at the rail siding, for whom bachelor quarters will be provided by the project. It is also anticipated that many workers at the damsites will want to establish homes in the cantwell area, if the hous- ing is available. The size of the population influx into Cantwell will be heavily influenced by the developnent of housing in the community by private individuals and by mitigation measures that could be developed and implemented. To the extent that housing and 1 and for hous·ing is not sufficient, it is probable that many of these people will settle in other areas or will have their families remain at their present homes. This is an especially important considera- tion in the Cant we 11 area, because of the 1 imited amount of non-native private land and the question surrounding future plans for Native-owned 1 and (see Section 3.4). It remains to be seen whether Ahtna, Inc., will find it desirable and economically fea- sible to develop its land for housing. As result of this uncertainty, two scenarios of impacts have been projected. The population projections, under both scenarios, are displayed in Table E.5.24. Under Case A, projections of population influx were based upon a housing supply-constraint model, in which it was assumed that the influx of population would be limited to the number that could be accom- modated by existing vacant housing and land that E-5-43 3.1-Impact of In-migration wil1 most probably be available for use by housing, mobile homes, or trailers. No further land would be expected to become available. The majority of workers who wished to settle there but caul d not find housing would either (1) not move their families at all or (2) would find housing in other parts of the 1 ocal impact area. The Case B impact projections assume that land and housing will be available at an acceptable cost to accommodate all in-migrant workers that desire to settle in Cantwell. It is thus a demand-side model which uses assumptions on worker activity based upon the experience of communities near other large projects in remote areas {U.S. Army Corps of Engi- neers June 1981 and Denver Research Institute February 1982). It is highly uncertain how much housing will become available and at how rapid a pace. In addition, if a 1 ocal commercial source of electric power does not become available (currently residents rely on individual generators) the cost of power may further discourage workers and their fami1 ies from settling in Cantwell. Thus, it is best to consider Case B as a presentation of an upper range of possible impacts, rather than as a 1 i ke 1 y scenario. Both scenarios include the planned provision of housing for workers at the rail siding area, and these workers are included in the projections in Table E.5.24. The housing for project workers at Cantwell will be bachelor quarters. Any in-migrant workers who wish to bring their families will need to obtain housing for their families. Under both scenarios, it is expected that there will be a large influx of population ·into Cantwell during 1985 and 1986. Under Case B, the population of the community would triple; under Case A, the population of Cantwell would be double the popula- tion level expected without the project. Under both cases, it is likely that the proportion of non-native Americans in the community will rise sharply. In Case B, approximately 455 people are expected to des·ire to settle into the community by 1986 (under the housing supply-constraint conditions of Case A, it is estimated that only 230 people waul d move E-5-44 - - - - ~. - - - - 3.1-Impact of In-migration into Cantwell during that period). Of this total, about 300 {66 percent) wi 11 be related to the direct construction work force working at the rail head and to a small number of workers at the Watana site who choose to settle their families at Cantwell. The remainder will comprise support workers and their families. The influx would represent an increase of almost 200 percent over the size of population that was projected for Cantwell in 1986 under the base case (200). This dramatic increase would occur very quickly over a period of 18 months. After 1986, there will be a sharp decline in the number of workers needed at the railhead. However, as the work force at the Watana site increases, there will be an influx of families of a portion of those workers that wi 11 more than offset the de- cline related to the railhead. It is projected that the number of project-related people in Cantwell could rise to a peak level of between 255 {low case) and up to 1000 (high case) in 1990. Approxi- mately 90 percent of this cumulative in-migrant population will be related to the direct work force in the high case. Under the high case projections, population in Cantwell in 1990 {1214) will be approximately 4.5 times as large as would be the case without the project. Several factors affected the assumptions that underlie the projected number of project workers that are expected to want to settle in the Cantwell area, if there is housing available. First, Cant- well is the closest community, by road, to the pro- posed work site, but it can only be considered a daily commute under good weather conditions (usu- ally May-September). It is estimated that under optimal conditions it would be an 80-minute drive from Cantwell to Watana; under poor conditions, it could take up to 3 hours or more. The distance could be expected to discourage project worker in- migration into Cantwell. On the other hand, the 1 engthy project construction period (9 years for the Watana portion alone), and the 1 imited avail- ability of family housing at the site is expected to result in a larger demand for housing than would be expected in a community that is so far away from the work site. E-5-45 3.1-Impact of In-migration The population projections upon which the impacts of the project are based assume that the community will obtain some form of power supply by 1985 (residents of the community currently rely on individual generators) and that the 1 ack of power wi 11 thus not be a deterrent to future in-mig rant settlement. Power may be provided by purchase of a community generator, or possibly by provision of a substation related to the planned Jlnchorage- Fairbanks transmission intertie. -Water Supply, Sewage Treatment, and Solid Waste Disposal The residents of Cantwell rely upon individual wells and septic tanks for their water supply and sewage treatment needs. Under Case A conditions, the population infiux related to the project is not expected to affect water and sewage in Cantwell. Under Case B, the community will begin to approach a size at which a community water system becomes feasible. The need for a centralized water system wi 11 depend on the pattern of housing devel opnent. If housing continues to be built on plots of 1 acre (0.4 ha) or more, individual wells will continue to prev ai 1 • The additional population in Cantwell and debris from the railroad siding can be expected to inten- sify the need for a new community landfill quickly. Currently, the need for a new 1 and fill for Cantwell residents is considered to be a top priority. -Transportation The traffic on the Parks Highway and Denali Highway will increase substantially as a result of the com- muting of project workers and the transport of sup- plies from the railhead to the Watana site. This will require an increase in maintenance and main- tenance staff by the state to continue current levels of service. In addition, local roads will need to be built to serve any additional subdivis- ions. This will be the responsibility of indi- v i d u a 1 d ev e 1 ope r s • The Denali Highway will need to be upgraded to handle the increased traffic from an estimated E-5-46 ~I ·~ - - "'"" 3.1-Impact of In-migration 30-35 trucks a day and use by commuting workers. The additional traffic will exacerbate the dust problems that nearby residents experience in the summer, unless that portion of the highway is paved. Additional snow clearing equipment and manpower will be required to service the Denali Highway and project access road during the winter months. Also, Highway Maintenance Division equipment will be maintaining these two road surfaces during the spring and summer months. The access road gravel' surface will require near constant grading because of heavy truck traffic. The extent of maintenance impacts of servicing the Denali Highway section of the route will depend on the nature of road surface ultimately determined for this portion. A substantial increase in traffic caused by the Susitna project is expected at the Cantwell inter- section of the Parks and Denali Highways • .Antici- pated traffic patterns in this area will need to be studied to determine necessary navigational and traffic control aids. There are currently one state trooper and one Fish and Game officer stationed at the Cantwell station. The increased population at the community and at the damsites will result in an increased need for police protection of approximately five to six officers (based upon rural standards of about one officer per thousand population). Provision of pol ice protection at the Watana site by the project management may mitigate the need for additional state troopers at Cantwell somewhat. -Fire Protection Increased population is not expected to affect the firefighting facilities in Cantwell; these are planned on the basis of distance between the sta- tion and population centers and on the availab·il ity of pumped water. The planned fire hall and equip- ment should be sufficient to serve the community as it grows. Adequate water is available from wells, creeks and lakes to serve the station. E-5-47 3.1 -Impact of In-migration -Health Care With the exception of an ambulance, no formal health care facilities or social service organiza- tions are currently available in or near Cantwell. Growth of the community may result in an increased need for emergency medical care. Growth may also help to attract some private medical care to the area. In addition, the stress associated with rapid change may result in increased need for provision of some types of social services within the com- munity. -Education {b) Regional It is estimated that between 50 and 80 school- children would be added to the enrollment of the school in Cantwell as result of the project between 1985 and 1986. By the peak of construction at the Watana site in 1990, the project-related number of schoolchildren in Cantwell is expected to equal between 70 and 150, depending upon the niJTiber of workers at the damsite who have their families settle at Cantwell. Total enrollment at the Cantwell school (including both enrollment expected under the base case and the addition induced by the project) wi1l thus equal about 125 in 1986 and between 110 and 190 ·in 1990. This would be beyond the capabilities of the existing school, and an addition to the school would need to be constructed to accommodate the increase in enrollment. The present school at Cantwell has capacity for about 55 to 60 children and can handle as many as 75 on a short-term basis. The increase in enrollment would also result in requirements for approximately 10 additional teachers, based upon an average teacher-to-student ratio of 15:1. The population of the Rail belt is expected to increase to approximately 400,000 by 1990, of which only 1867 in- migrants (or 0.5 percent) will be related to the project. This represents such a small percent of current and pro- jected population in the region, that impacts on facilities E-5-48 - - - - - - - - - ..... - - - - 3.1 -Impact of In-migration and services outside the 1 ocal impact area are expected to b e n eg 1 i g i b 1 e • 3.1 .4 Watana Operation Phase and Devil Canyon Construction Phase (a) Loca 1 ( i) Mat-Su Borough -Magnitude of Population Influx As shown in Table E.5.19, project-induced popula- tion is not expected to increase significantly in the late 1990s as the construction activity at Devil Canyon intensifies (an increase of about 155 people over a 5-year period). It is probable that the available work force in the Railbelt, including those who worked on the construction of the Watana dam, will be able to fill the new direct jobs. Some secondary population influx will occur as income from this portion of the project is spent. Since the population of the borough will continue to grow as a result of natural growth factors im- plicit in the base case population projections, the relative impact of the project-induced, offsite population will be smaller. In 1999, t~e project-. induced population (including many people who moved into the area during the earlier Watana period and stayed) of 1047 people will account for only 1.6 percent of total borough population. -Water Supply and Sewage Treatment No further impacts on the water or sewage systems in the Mat-Su Borough are expected. -Solid Waste Disposal The cumulative 1 andfill acreage need of the borough will increase about 2. 2 acres (0. 9 ha) during the 1994-2002 period, or 1.2 percent as a result of the project-related population living offsite in borough communities. The borough may need to provide additional acreage for its central landfill around 1994-1955, with or without the Susitna project. E-5-49 3.1-Impact of In-migration -Police Protection The need for pol icemen in the Mat-Su Borough, outside Palmer, is ,expected to continue to increase in the 1990s under the base case, as the population continues to grow. At the peak of Devil Canyon construction in 1999, it is expected that there will be need for about 76 officers, compared to a projected need for 75 pol ice under the base case. -Fire Protection The project facilities and work camp/work village will be protected by firefighting equipnent and services at the work site; there will be 1 ittl e impact on existing fire service areas during this period. -Health Care No adverse impact on the borough•s health care facilities are expected during this period as a result of the project. -Education There will be limited additions in enrollment in the Mat-Su Borough School District as a result of the Devil Canyon portion of the project. Between 1993 and 1999, enrollment in the school district is expected to increase from about 12,065 to 16,740. Of this total enrollment in 1999, project-related in-migrant households are expected to account for 288 students, or just 1.7 percent. -Transportation The Devil Canyon phase of the project will ·include construction of a rail spur from Gold Creek to the damsite. No additional impacts on the transporta- tion systems in the borough are expected during this period. (ii) Trapper Creek -Magnitude of Population Influx In Trapper Creek, it is expected that as activity at Devil Canyon begins, population will increase E-5-50 """ .... -' - - - - ~ ' 3.1 -Impact of In-migration from about 625 in 1994 to 770 in 1999 (see Table E.5.22). This represents an average annual growth rate of 2. 4 percent. Project-reT ated population will represent about 40 percent of total population in Trapper Creek in 1999. -Impacts on Public Facilities and Services No further important impacts on public facilities and services in the community are expected. My increases in infrastructure which occur during the Watana period as a result of the population influx related to the project are expected to be suffi- cient to accommodate the community's population dur·ing the Devi.l Canyon phase. (iii) Talkeetna -Magnitude of Population Influx Project-related population in Talkeetna will rise gradually from about 222 in 1995 to 257 in 1999. Most of the population growth in Talkeetna during this period will be unrelated to the Susitna proj- ect. At the peak of construction at Oev il Canyon it is expected that project-related population will account for 14 percent of population in the com- munity. -Impact on Public Facilities and Services While it is 1 ikely that infrastructure needs in Talkeetna will continue to increase in the 1990s, these requiremetts will be related to the continued increase in population unrelated to the project. (iv) Cantwell -Magnitude of Population Influx Upon completion of the Watana portion of the Susitna project, between 90 (1 ow impact scenario) and 215 (l'ligh impact scenario) people are expected to move out of the Cantwell area. No further in-migration of project-related population is expected during the Devil Canyon construction phase. E-5-51 3.1-Impact of In-migration -Impact on Public Facilities and Services (b) Region a 1 The decline in population in Cantwell associated with the completion of Watana construction will have most relevance to capacity utilization of the school. It is expected that the number of project-related students enrolled in the school will decline by about 30 upon completion of the Watana portion of the project. To the extent that the school was enlarged to accommodate the peak number of students, there may be some overcapacity. It is expected that potential problems can be avoided through careful planning and communi- cation about the project (see Section 4 on mitiga- tion measures). As a result of the limited population influx into the Ra i1 belt and the 1 arge projected base case population, no measurable impacts on public facilities and services in the region outside the 1 ocal impact area are expected during the Devil Canyon phase. 3.1.5-Watana and Devil Canyon-Operation Phase There will be some expected departure of population from the 1 ocal impact area as construction of the second dam is completed. However the effects of this decline in population on public facilities are 'expected to be minimal, with the possible excep- tion of schools in Trapper Creek and Cantwell. Planning, commun- ication with local authorities, and other mitigation measures are expected to prevent overcapacity problems. Because of the limi- ted public facilities currently in place in the communities closest to the project and the small size of these communities even with the projected peak amount of project-related population influx, it is not expected that excess capacity will have been built. During the operation phase of the project, all project workers and their families will be living at the onsite village, where housing and other community facilities will be available. No impacts on public facilities and services in the local and regional impact areas are expected during this period. E-5-52 - ~I - - -' - - - - - 3.2-Or.-site Manpower Requirements and Payroll, by Year and Month 3.2.1 -Manpower Requirements Tables E.5.25 -E.5.27 show the projected total annual number and origin of onsite construction and operations manpower for the Watana and Devil Canyon dams from 1985-2005. These estimates include all manpower requ·ired for the construction of the access road and camp/village, power facilities, and transmission facil i- ties, and all management and administrative personnel. Manpower for offsite activities such as procurement, manufacturing, shipp- ing, and a portion of the engineering staff are not included in these estimates. For the construction work force, manpower is divided into la- borers, semiskilled/skilled workers, and engineering/adm·inistra- tive employees. As shown in Table E.5.25, the peak demand for labor occurs in 1990 with an estimated construction work force of 3498. The Watana darn will be constructed in two phases with an ultimate generating capacity of 1020 MW. The first installment of 680 MW will be c001pleted by January 1994, at which time operations manpower will total 70 persons. The additional generat·ing capa- city will be available in July 1994 and will result in a total operations work force of 145 workers. Analysis of construction manpower requirements for the 600-MW Devil Canyon dam is based on main access construction beginning in 1992 and site fac·ilities construction beginning ·in 1994. This dam would come on-line in 2002. The total onsite operations work force for both dams wi 11 equal 170 during 2002 and there- after. During part of 1992 and all of 1993, construction acti- vities related to both dams would be occurring. It is apparent from Figure E.5.5 that the first phase of the Watana dam requires a significantly greater number of workers than both the second phase of Watana and Devil Canyon c001bined. This difference can be attributed to the additional labor re- quirements in the initial years for construction of the work camp and village, the access road, and to the more labor-intensive nature of a gravel-fill dam (Watana) than a concrete thin arch dam (Devil Canyon). Significant decreases in work force require- ments (relative to the preceding years) will occur between 1991 and 1996. 3.2.2-Seasonality of Manpower Requirements The demand for manpower will vary during any given year. As Figure E. 5. 6 shows, at 1 east 80 percent of the peak demand for labor in a given year will be required during mid-March to mid- E-5-53 3. 2 -On site Man power Requirements and Payroll September. Labor requirements rise from about 30 percent to 80 percent of the peak during February to mid-March, and fall from 80 percent to about 30 perc~nt of the peak during mid-September to the beginning of December. Labor requirements will be about 30 percent of the peak during December and January. Table E.5.28 shows the construction and operations manpower re- quirements by month and year. The figures ·in this table were derived by applying the seasonal labor curve in Figure E.5.6 to the manpower requirements shown in Table E.5.25. Each construc- tion labor category was expanded seasonally, and then factored to the slightly different trade mix ratios which occur between 1985 to 1994 and 1995 to 2002. After adjustment, all labor categories were combined into Table E.5.28. It is clear from Table E.5.28 that a significant number of workers wi 11 not be employed on the project for several months each year. During months when the quantity of labor demanded is low, it is likely that a significant portion of the peak annual work force will return to their permanent residences. Those workers who maintain permanent residences outside the region will leave the region during these periods. Some workers might also travel to another job for which they have already been hired. Some workers who do not already have non-project-related jobs during this low demand period may seek employment while based at their permanent residences while others might not seek work for a period of time. During these extended times off the job, workers are not 1 ikely to receive substantial amounts of compensation. It is possible that workers will be given travel allowances when they leave their jobs on the project. These allowances would help pay their travel expenses to their homes and perhaps back to the job. It is also possible, but in general less likely, that workers would be given monetary inducements (other than travel allowances) to return to their jobs. Inducements would most probably be reserved for the most highly valued workers. (a) Project Effects on Unemployment The effects of the project on unemployment rates and 1 evel s in the region and communities of the region are difficult to predict. One would think that the increased availability of jobs would lower both unemployment rates and levels, but this might not be the case for the following reason. It must be kept in mind that it is not sol ely the number of jobs available that determines unemployment. The number of job seekers relative to the number of jobs available is the E-5-54 - ""'!\ i - - - - - - - ,.. .. -I - - 3.2-Onsite Manpower Requirements and Payroll main determinant of unemployment. It is possible that a larger than required nt.rnber of workers could come to the points of hire for this project from outside the region. This would be probable if there were relatively few job opportunities outside the region or if the wages for jobs on this project were considerably higher than job wages elsewhere. This phenomenon would tend to increase rates and 1 ev el s of unemployment, perhaps above the rates and 1 ev el s that existed prior to the project. , Recent experience has indicated that the number of persons looking for work in Alaska is capable of growing faster than the number of new jobs. For example, in recent summers thousands of job seekers have come to Alaska 1 ooking for work in construction, professional and technical, and other occupations. While one would expect the unemployment rate to decline considerably during the SLJlllller months as more jobs become available, this has not been the case. In addition, recent economic expansion has tended to in- crease unemployment rates and levels over previous similar economic expansions. During recent periods when more jobs have been available, unemployment rates have been higher than previous similar periods of job expansion, and the total number of unemployed persons has increased rather than dec rea sed. In summary, the influence on unemployment of manpower demand for this project is uncertain, but it is possible that the project will tend to exacerbate rather than ameliorate unem- ployment rates and levels in any season of the year. The outcome largely depends upon the extent of in-migration of job seekers. This phenomenon will be monitored and included as part of the Impact Management Program (see Section 4). 3. 2. 3 -Payroll Payroll is important because it is the source of impacts result- ing from direct on-site construction and operations work force expenditures. Based on the above onsite construction and opera- tions manpower requirements the total yearly project payrolls from 1985 -2002 were derived and are shown in Table E.5.29. These totals were derived by matching wages to the respective trades which comprise the 1 abor categories indicated in the monthly manpower requirements in Table E.5.28. It was assumed that for laborers and semiskilled/ skilled workers there are 1825 worker hours per year (54 hours per week and an average of 29 weeks per year) and for administrative, engineering and opera- tions/maintenance personnel 2496 working hours per year (48 hours per week and 52 weeks per year). E-5-55 3.3 -Residency and Movement of Project Construction Personnel Wage rates for laborers and semiskilled/skilled workers were obtained from the Alaska Department of Labor (ADOL). These wage rates are routinely collected by ADOL through industry surveys, and are the worker•s base rate of pay exclusive of any fringe benefits and prior to standard deductions. Wage rates for engineering/administrative and operations/main- tenance personnel were obtained from Acres American, Inc. and are the workers• Alaskan base rate of pay exclusive of any fringe benefits and prior to standard deductions. In all manpower labor categories, wage rates used in computing on-site payroll do not include such added benefits as travel allowances, housing allowances, and other highly variable items. The construction payroll in 1990, the peak year of construc- tion, totals $81.055 million. Annual operations payroll ranges from $2.7 million in 1993 to $6.7 million in 2002 (in 1982 dol.lars). Table E.5.29 shows payroll by year and month. The manpower figures which were used to generate total hours paid have been adjusted for the slight annual difference in construction trade mix. Base figures indicate that in 1990, 22 percent of the onsite workforce will be laborers, 53 percent semiskilled/ski1led, and 25 percent administrative/engineering. In 1999, this mix is projected to alter to 20 percent 1 aborers, 48 percent semi-skilled/ skilled, and 32 percent administrative/engineering. Payroll calculations were made on the basis of these two different ratios. Years 1985 through 1994 were calculated at the 1990 trade mix, and years 1995 through 2002 at the 1999 trade mix. 3.3 -Residency and Movement of Project Construction Personnel The principal objectives of this section are to provide a statement of and rationale for the assumption used to project the residency and movement of workers and the resultant population influxes and effluxes, and to provide the results of these projections. This is done by dis- cussing probable geographic sources of direct manpower, residency and movement of direct manpower, support employment generated by the direct construction work force, and dependents associated with in-migrating manpower. In this context, support employment includes (1) workers employed by private suppliers of equipment or materials for the project and (2) workers employed by service industries whose increase in busi- ness is related to increased demands for goods and services by con- struction workers. Estimations for several elements of the work force are made, including: (1) number of workers that would reside in the region at the beginning of construction at Watana; (2) number of workers that would relocate their residences within or to the region; and (3) number of workers E-5-56 - - ~' -' - - - - - - - ..... - - -I ,..,., I 3.3 -Residency and Movement of Project Construction Personnel that will maintain their residences outside the region. Estimates of population influxes and effluxes are also included. These estimations are made for the census divisions, cities/communities of the region, and Cantwell. Estimates are produced separately for Cantwell because slightly different assumptions were necessary due to railhead construction and operation at Cantwell. Assumptions and methods used in the analysis are discussed throughout this section, and important communications with knowledgeable persons are referenced where appropriate. Sources that were reviewed and that contributed substantially to the development of assumptions and methods include u.s. Army Corps of Engineers (1981); Denver Research Institute (1982); Metz (July 1981); Metz September (1981); Holmes & Naver (1981); and University of Alberta (1980). Further elaboration of the approach to the impact assessment is provided in Appendix 5.A. 3.3.1 -Region (a) General Geographic Sources of Manpower Most of the manpower for the project will be supplied from within the region. The percentage of jobs that could be filled by the regionally available work force varies with each labor category. In general, a greater portion of laborers than engineers and administrators will be supplied from the region. As shown in Table E.5.26, it is estimated that 85 percent of the laborers will be supplied from the region, 5 percent from other areas of state, and 10 percent from out-of- state; 80 percent of semi-skilled/skilled workers will be supplied from the region, 5 percent from other areas of the state, and 15 percent from out-of-state; and 65 percent of the workers in the engineering/administrative category will come from the region, 5 percent fr{)m other areas of the state, and 30 percent will be from out-of-state~ The percentages are estimates. These estimates were made through analysis of unemployment data for laborers, semi- skilled/skilled workers (mostly crafts or trades), and administrative and engineering personnel. Labor required for the project was compared to 1 abor available in the region 1 s census divisions. Preliminary percentages were developed based on this comparison. Next, local union officials, Alaska Department of Labor economists; and construction contractors wer-e consul ted. Insights obtained from discussions with these persons, listed in the References, he~ped wi~h the estimations of the E-5-57 3.3-Residency and Movement of Project Construction Personnel future availability of workers in the region and census div- lSlons. Based on these insights, the preliminary percent- ages were modified, to reflect probable future conditions. {b) Detailed Geographic Sources of Manpower The first row in Table E.5.30 displays the projection of construction workers that will come from the region, based upon the percentages listed above. Here it can be seen that by 1990, the peak year, about 2842 residents of the region will be employed as onsite construction workers. Geographic sources of manpower were projected in detai 1 for census divisions of the region and selected cities/communi- ties of the Mat-Su Borough. The projections are shown in Table E.5.30. These figures represent the cumulative number of residents, by place of residence prior to the start of construction in 1985, who will become onsite construction workers {that is, these figures show the current residence of workers who will obtain employment on the project). These projections were made by assuming that project employ- ment would be distributed among census divisions based, in part, upon each census division's average share of the total construction employment in the region during 1979-1981. These shares, hereinafter called residence factors, were adjusted to reflect the census division's proximity to the construction sites relative to other census divisions. The residence factors are: Anchorage: Mat-Su: Kenai-Cook Inlet: Seward: Fairbanks: S.E. Fairbanks: Valdez-Chitina-Whittier: 55.9% 6.7% 11.1% 0.2% 23.8% 0.2% 2.1% Project employment was projected for selected Mat-Su Borough cities/communities based upon each city/community's recent average share of total population in the Borough. Trends in population shares were also taken into account in making initial estimations of city/community shares of the Borough's project employment. Population data were used in 1 ieu of employment data because employment data is not available for most cities/communities. As above, these shares, hereinafter called residence fac- tors, were adjusted to reflect a city/ community's proximity to the construction sites relative to other cities/communi- ties. The residence factors are: E-5-58 ~"""': """ - - - ..... - - 3. 3 -Residency and Movement of Project Construction Personnel Palmer: 10% Wasilla: 8% Houston: 5% . Trapper Creek: 1% Talkeeetna: 4% Other areas: 72% Even after adjusting the residence factors for proximity to the construction sites, several of the figures in Table E.5.30 are relatively small, particularly for the smaller cities and communities. It is considered likely that the 1 arge number of construction workers in Anchorage and Fairbanks and the presence of the union hiring halls in those cities will result in a majority of workers on the Susitna project being residents of the large cities. This caul d result in 1 imi ted employment of people from the smaller communities closer to the project, in the absence of mitigation measures. It is possible that more persons in the small communities will obtain onsite construction jobs than indicated, especially if there is an effective local hire program. (c) Residency and Movement of Regional and Non-Regional Manpower It is expected that manpower liv·ing in the region before 1985 and becoming employed on the project during or after 1985 will move their permanent residences closer to the construction sites during the project. It is also expected that some of the workers who permanently reside outside the region prior to 1985, the start of construction, will move their permanent residences to the region during the project. Quantification of these changes in residences is the subject of this section. For relocation of regional manpower within the region, it was assumed that workers would migrate from all census divisions of the region to the local impact area (Mat-Su Borough and Cantwell). However, since the niJllber of workers residing in the Seward, Southeast Fairbanks and Valdez- Chitina-Whittier census ·divisions prior to 1985 was insigni- ficant relative to the other census divisions, the amount of relocation from these census divisions was not quantified. It was assumed that, in any given project year, about 10 percent of the workers who waul d otherwise have resided in the census division in which they lived in 1984, would instead move their residences closer to the construction sites. Put another way, in any given year, about 90 percent E-5-59 3.3-Residency and l~ovement of Project Construction Personnel of the project workers who will be living in the Anchorage, Kenai-Cook Inlet, and Fairbanks census divisions in 1984 and subsequently become employed on the project, would keep their permanent residences in these census divisions after 1984. The rationale for this assumption is that currently there is substantial movement from urban areas, particularly Anchorage, to rural areas, particularly the Mat-Su Borough. In addition, it is believed that many Alaskans would prefer to 1 ive in more rural areas if there were employment opportunities nearby. This assumption was operationalized by lowering the original residence factors for the Anchorage, Kenai-Cook Inlet, and Fairbanks census divisions, and raising the residence factors for the Mat-Su Borough and Cantwell. The residence factors were changed so as to approximate the 10 percent value discussed above. For workers in the engineering/ administrative category, it should be noted that some of the "movers" were distributed to communities located closer to the site, while most were distributed to the onsite village. Of the workers who in-migrate into the local impact area, approximately 45 percent are projected to settle in Cantwell and 55 percent in the Mat-Su Borough (with the exception of the workers on the ra"ilhead, who will be living in housing provided by the project in Cantwell). Workers that move from the Anchorage, Kenai-Cook Inlet, and Fairbanks census divisions into the Mat-Su Borough will settle in cities and communities as follows: Palmer: 4% of workers that migrate to the Bora ugh. Wa s ·i 11 a : 5 % Houston: 4% Trapper Creek: 25% Talkeetna: 25% Other Areas: 37% Here, it was assumed that workers would in general choose to have their permanent residences closer to the construction sites than the larger population centers of Wasilla and Palmer. It was assumed tht these workers would be willing to trade off some conveniences for a shorter commuting time. In years where manpower requirements decline from the previous year, it is likely that some of the workers who E-5-60 - ~ I - - - - - ..... - - - - 3.3-Residency and Movement of Project Construction Personnel relocated will no longer be employed on the project. This lack of project employment could be temporary or permanent between 1991 and 2002, and permanent after 2002 (to the extent that these workers do not fill the operations jobs). It was assumed that all of the workers who relocated within the region would remain at their new permanent residences. This assumption was made because these workers are the ones who wanted to move to more rural areas prior to 1985, but did not because of the lack of jobs. Their strong desire to live in this rural area will give them extra incentive to make it feasible to remain. If there is any out-migration by this group, it is 1 ikely that they will move to cities such as Jltlchorage, Fairbanks, and Wasilla where it is likely that more jobs will be available. Workers who 1 ive outside the region prior to 1985 will also choose to relocate to the region. It was assumed that 50 percent of the laborers and semi-skilled/skilled workers who come to work on the project from outside the region will choose to relocate to the region. This percentage of relocation is higher than has been experienced on many other projects because there will be a rather stable demand for this kind of labor during 1988-1992. This will provide an extra incentive for workers to relocate. In addition, there will be no onsite accommodations for 1 aborers 1 dependents, and few accommodations for semiskilled/skilled workers 1 dependents. This will create an incentive for workers who have dependents to relocate their residences to the region. For workers in the engineering/administrative category, it was assliTled that 15 percent would settle in the region. A lower percentage of engineers and administrators (relative to laborers and semiskilled/skilled workers) will relocate to communities of the region because accommodations will be available for many of these workers and their dependents at the construction sites. Workers in all three of the labor categories were distri- buted among census divisions of the region according to geographic source-specific residence factors. For workers coming from out-of-state, the following factors were used during 1985-1986: Anchorage: 27% Mat-Su and Cantwell: 50% Kenai -Cook In 1 et: 2% Seward: 0% Fairbanks: 21% SE Fairbanks: 0% Valdex-Chitina-Whittier: 0% E-5-61 3.3 -Residency and Movement of Project Construction Personnel These factors were increased slightly for Mat-Su and Cant- well, and decreased slightly for Anchorage and Fairbanks during 1987-2002. It. was assumed that some workers would temporarily settle in the larger cities, then settle in the more rural areas as they get to know the area better. For workers coming from other areas of Alaska but outside the region, the following factors were used during 1985-1986: Anchorage: 20% Mat-Su and Cantwell: 60% Kenai-Cook Inlet: 5% Seward: 0% Fairbanks: 15% SE Fairbanks: 0% Valdez-Chitina-Whittier: 0% Residence factors for rural areas for these workers are higher than those for the worke,rs coming from out-of-state because it was assumed that the Alaska workers coming from outside the region would know the area better and be more apt to settle in the less populated areas. As above, the residence factors were increased slightly for Mat-Su and Cantwell, and decreased slightly for Anchorage and Fairbanks during 1987-2002. It was assumed that some workers would temporarily settle in the larger cities, then settle in the more rural areas as they get to know the area better. It is expected that workers moving from outside the region to communities of the Mat-Su Borough will choose to settle in roughly the same pattern as those workers that move from the Anchorage, Kenai-Cook Inlet and Fairbanks census divi- sions into the Mat-Su Borough. Accordingly, the workers that come from out of the region will settle in cities and communities as follows: Palmer: Wasilla: Houston: Trapper Creek: Talkeetna: Other Areas: 4% of workers that migrate to the Borough. 5% 4% 25% 25% 37% E-5-62 - - - - - - 3.3 -Residency and Movement of Project Con~truction Personnel Here it was assumed that workers would in general choose to live closer to the construction sites than the larger popu- 1 at ion centers of Was ill a and Pa 1 mer. It was assumed that these workers would be wi 11 i ng to trade off some conveni- ences for a shorter commuting time. In years where manpower requirements decline from the previ- ous year, it is 1 i kely that some of the workers who re- located from outside the region will no longer be employed on the project. This lack of project employment could be temporary or permanent between 1991 and 2002, and permanent after 2002 (to the extent that these workers do not fill the operations jobs). It is assumed that 50 percent of the workers who lose their employment on the project will leave their place of reloca- tion and return to their original place of residence or go elsewhere in search of new employment. On large projects in the lower 48 states, an average of about 30-40 percent of the workers who have completed their employment on projects choose to remain in the area. The percentage is projected to be higher for this project because it is expected that workers will stay in the area after construction on Watana ends, hoping to obtain employment on the construction of the Devil Canyon dam during 1994 -2002. It is not possible to forecast at present where these workers will find employment while they are not employed on the project. It is assumed that there will be jobs available on other smaller construc- tion jobs in or near the area, and that other miscellaneous jobs will be available. After 2002, it is expected that a large number of these workers will choose to remain in the area because by that time they will know about job opportunities in the area and will have an attachment to the area. Table E.5.31 shows the results of applying the above assump- tions. It shows in-migration to and out-migration from com- munities, cities and census divisions by workers who: (1) lived in the region prior to obtaining employment on the project and subsequently relocated within the region; and (2) workers who relocated to the region from elsewhere. These figures represent the cumulative number of construc- tion workers, by 1 abor category, year, and, irnpl i citly, project phase, that would in-migrate and out-migrate. Table E5.32 shows the distribution of construction and oper- ations workers by place of permanent residence. The first E-5-63 3.3 -Residency and Movement of Project Construction Personnel column shows the cumulative number of workers who will main- tain permanent residences in the Railbelt region or Cant- well. These workers will reside temporarily at the work camps while on-the-job. The second column includes workers that will reside permanently outside of the Railbelt region and Cantwell, or permanently at the villages. The third column shows the tot a 1 number of workers that wi 11 perman- ently reside at the villages. It is apparent from Table E.5.32 that most of the workforce will reside permanently in the region or Cantwell during all construction years except for 2002. The table also shows that workers who maintain permanent residences are small in number when compared to those that maintain permanent resi- dences in the region or Cantwell. Residency of Support Employment Support employment was estimated by applying 1 ocation and time-sepcific aggregate multipliers to the on-site construc- tion workforce that maintains residences in the region out- side of the village. The following multipliers were applied to this on-site workforce: Census Division Anchorage Mat -Su Kenai-Cook Inlet Seward Fairbanks SE Fairbanks Valdez-Chitina-Whittier Multiplier (Time Period) 2.1 (1983-84); 2.2 (1985-87); 2.3 (1988-96); 2.4 (1997-2005) 1.8 (1983-87); 1.9 (1988-2005) 1.4 (1983-89); 1.5 (1990-99); 1. 6 (2000-2005) 1.3 (1983-99); 1.4 {2005-2005) 1.5 (1983-89); 1.6 (1-990-99}; 1.7 (2000-2005) 1.2 (1983-99); 1.3 {2000-2005) 1.3 ( 1983-99); 1.4 (2000-2005) The value of each multiplier was adjusted upward slightly to account for the effect of expenditures made by workers who reside temporarily at the camp or village and take occasion- E-5-64 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 3. 3 -Residency and Movement of Project Construction Personnel al excursions in the region and travel to their residences outside the region. The value of each location-specific multiplier was asst.med to increase ·with time because of import substitution and other factors that reflect a maturing and growing economy, and time lags in expenditures made by the work force. Results obtained from applying the multipliers are shown in Table E.5.33. These figures represent the cumulativenunber of onsite construction and support workers by place of residence. (d) Relocating Workers and Associated Population Influx and Efflux Population influx and efflux will result from in-migration of on site construction and support workers and their dependents. The nt.mbers of in-and out-migrating onsite construction workers were previously shown in Table E.5.31. The nlJllber of in-migrating support workers was determined by estimating the percent of total support jobs accruing to a place that would be filled by in-migrants. The following percentages were used: Anchorage: 25% Kenai-Cook Inlet: 15% Seward: 0% Fairbanks: 15% SE Fairbanks: 20% Valdez-Chitina-Whittier: 30% Mat-Su Bo ro ug h : Pa 1 mer: Wasilla: Houston: Trapper Creek: Talkeetna: Other Areas: 10% 10% 10% 70% 25% 10% These percentages resulted from an analysis of the amount of l abo r po ten t i a 11 y a v ail ab 1 e at e ac h p 1 ac e • Un em p 1 oym en t data, 1 abor force partie i pati on rates, and underemployment information were utilized in this analysis. These percent- ages were then applied to the support employment estimates, by place, to obtain the nlJllber of in-migrating support wor- kers in each location. E-5-65 3.3 -Residency and Movement of Construction Personnel The total number of in-and out-migrating onsite and support workers is shown in Table E.5.34. During the peak of construction activities in 1990, 675 in-migrant direct and support workers will reside in the region. Of this total, 63 will be direct onsite construction workers and the remainder, 612, will be support workers. As manpower re- quirements fall during 1991-1995, about one half of these in-migrants will remain in the area. It is likely that some of these persons will become ernpl oyed during the construc- tion of the Devil Canyon dam. During 1996-1999, workers will again in-migrate to the region. This is shown in Table E.5.34. This in-migration will halt in 1999, and after 1999 there will be some out- migration. As construction activity is completed in 2002, the percent- age of in-migrant workers who remain after construction ends in 2002 is 12 percent. For the Mat-Su Borough, this figure is much higher--60 percent--because the majority of the in-migration to the borough consists of workers originating from the Anchorage, Fairbanks, and Kenai-Cook Inlet Census Divisions; as discussed earlier, it is assumed that all of the direct workers that move to the borough from these Census Divisions will view their moves as permanent and will remain in the borough after their employment on the project has ended. Within the Mat-Su Borough, the settlement of in-migrants is expected to be different from the distribution of the exist- ing population. It is expected that more than one half of the in-migrants will establish their residences in the area around the communities of Talkeetna and Trapper Creek. A significant amount of settlement wi 11 also occur in 11 0ther 11 areas of the borough; this corresponds to areas outside in- corporated cities, such as Montana Creek, Caswell and Willow. By the peak of construction activity, it is ex- pected that about 117 onsite construction and secondary workers will have settled in Talkeetna, 168 in Trapper Creek, and 200 in the incorporated cities and other areas of the borough. Migration estimates for all years are shown in Table E. 5. 34. Table E.5.35 shows estimates of total population influx and efflux by Census Division and for selected Mat-Su Borough cities and communities. These projections are based on the assumptions that, for the direct construction work force, 90 percent of the workers who relocate from within or to the region will be accompanied by dependents, and that those E-5-66 ~I - - )!0111!\ - - ·- - - - - 3.3-Residency and Movement of Project Construction Personnel. dependents will average 2.11 per worker (see Table E.5.36 for estimates of population influx and efflux associated sol ely with the in-mig rant on site construction work force, and see Section 3.1 for a discussion of the rationale for these assumptions). For estimating population influx and efflux associated with the support work force, the Alaska state average number of persons per household figure was used. Cumulative popula- tion influx into the region during the two peak periods equals 1867 and 691, respectively. Almost all of the net population influx associated with the direct onsite con- struction and support work forces in 1990 will relocate to the Anchorage subarea of the region (the Mat-Su Borough, and the Anchorage, Kenai-Cook Inlet, and Seward Census Divisions). The city of Fairbanks is expected to have a small net out-migration of population as result of the project. It is expected that the Kenai-Cook Inlet, Anchorage, and Fairbanks Census Divisions will experience slight out-migra- tions of population during various stages of construction activity, since out-migration to the Mat-Su Borough exceeds in-migration from outside the region. The totals increase as the construction activities end because a portion of the in-migrant workers and their families are expected to return to areas outside the region. During the peak construction year at Watana, the total project-induced population increase to the Mat-Su Borough totals 1389. This accounts for 74 percent of the total population influx into the region. Of this total, 837 were expected to remain in the borough after 2002. In 1990, Talkeetna, Trapper Creek, and other areas of the borough will experience 89 percent of the total population influx to the borough: Trapper Creek, 31 percent; Ta 1 keetna, 24 percent; and other areas 34, percent. These projections represent considerable population increases relative to the baseline forecasts for each of these areas. Conversely, Palmer, Wasilla and Houston will experience only moderate increases in population. At the end of construc- tion, total population increases to Trapper Creek, Talkeetna and other areas are projected to equal 212, 209, and 308, respectively. Numbers and categories of school-age children accompanying in-migrant workers were also projected. For the direct workers that relocate, the number of school-age children E-5-67 3. 3 -Residency and Movement of Project Construction Personnel accompanying these workers was estimated using a ratio of 0.89 schoolchildren per in-migrant worker accompanied by dependents. This ratio is an average of the ratios observed in other large projects in the lower 48 states. For the in-migrant population associated with the support workers, it was assumed that a certain percentage of the population would be school-age children. This percentage was arrived at by analyzing recent experience in the Mat-Su Borough. Under the base case for the Mat-Su Borough, the standards that the school district uses for planning were used in this study as well. The borough•s short-term plan (through 1987) uses an estimate of 22.8 percent. For 1 eng- range planning purposes, an estimate of 25 percent is used. For the purposes of this study, the ratio is assumed to rise gradually from 22.8 percent in 1987 to 25 percent in 2000 and then hold constant at that 1 evel through 2005. School-age children were divided into primary and secondary categories by assuming that the current ratios of primary school students (54 percent of total) and secondary school students {46 percent of total) will remain constant. It was beyond the scope of this analysis to forecast changes in distribution by school and grade. 3.3.2-Cantwell (a) The Impact Scenarios Project-induced employment and population effects in Cant- well were estimated for two cases, the high and moderate impact cases. In the low case (Case A), it is assumed that lack {or high cost) of land and/or housing limits the number of workers at the damsites or in support jobs in Cantwell, who settle in Cantwell. In the high case (Case B), it is B, it is assumed that land and housing will be available at an acceptable cost to accommodate all in-migrating direct and support workers who desire it. It is best to consider Case Bas a presentation of an upper range of possible impacts, rather than as a 1 ikely scenario. In both scenari- os, it is assumed that single-status housing will be avail- able for construction workers at the rail head during 1985-86, and for the rail head operations workers during 1987-1993. (b) Origin of Work Force It was estimated that approximately 20 percent of the 1 abor force in Cantwell {which was estimated to equal one half of E~5-68 - - - - - - - - - - - r- i 3. 3 -Residency and tt:Jvement of Project Construction Personnel (c) the population) would receive direct employment on the project without vacating positions that would need to be filled by in-migrants. The remainder of the construction operations workers at the rail head will in-migrate from outside the community. In addition, approximately 45 percent of the workers who work at the damsites and in-migrate into communities in the local impact area (comprising the Mat-Su Borough and Cantwell) will establish residences in Cantwell, if housing is available. These in-migrants are expected to come from the Rail belt region, other areas of Alaska, and outside Alaska in the same proportions as described in Section 3.3.1 (a) • (i) Resident.Employment on the Project ( i i ) The first column of Table E.5.30 shows the estimated total number of residents now 1 iving in Cantwell who will become employed on the project. These figures represent about 11 percent of Cantwell's current population. Relocating Workers The second column of Table E.5.30 shows the estimated total number of construction workers who will relo- cate to Cantwell during 1985-2002, for Cases A and B (these figures are cumulative). In the first two years, most of the in-migrating workers will be employed at the rai"lhead and in later years most will be employed at the damsites. Railhead workers will be able to live in the bachelor housing provided by the project or in private housing if they desire to have their families with them. All workers employed at the damsite will need to obtain private housing if they wish to live in Cantwell. Support Work Force The support work force was calculated by applying an aggre- gate multiplier of 0.5 to the number of direct project workers 1 iving at Cantwell in a given year. This multiplier is slightly higher than the currently estimated multiplier for this small community. It was adjusted upward to account for the effect of expenditures of workers at the damsite who pass through Cantwell while commuting or taking excursions. Approximately 10 percent of the Cantwell 1 abor force is assumed to fill a portion of this project-induced support E-5-69 3.3-Residency and Movement of Project Construction Personnel employment. One half of the spouses that accompany the direct in-migrant work force to residences in Cantwell are also expected to f·ill a portion of the secondary positions. The remainder of the secondary jobs created will be filled by in-migrants. (d) Population Influx Associated with the Project The assumptions used to project the population influx and school-age children associated with in-migrant direct and support workers are discussed in Section 3.1. Table E.5.37 displays the projected population influx into Cantwell associated with the project, by year, for both Cases A and B. As the table shows, under the high impact scenario (Case B), the project-induced population influx into Cantwell will equal approximately 430 in 1985, rising to almost 1000 in 1990, and then declining to 785 upon completion of the Watana portion of the project. Approxi- mately 90 percent of the population influx will be associ a- ted with the direct work force. Approximately 745 project- related people will remain in Cantwell at the end of the project. Population influx in the low case (Case A) follows a some- what different pattern. Under Case A, 90 percent of the population influx is expected to occur in the first year of rail siding construction (1985). The construction work force at the rai"lhead, and associated dependents, will account for almost all of that population influx. As some of these workers move out of the area upon completion of the railhead, workers associated with the Watana damsite are expected to move into the private housing they vacate. The project-related population in Cantwell is not expected to increase much further as the project reaches the peak of construction, because of the lack of sufficient housing. After 1990, project-related population will decline by about one third. Approximately 155 project-related personnel are expected to remain in Cantwell at the completion of project construction in 2002 under this scenario. 3.4-Adequacy of Available Housing in Impact Areas 3.4.1-Watana-Construction Phase (a) Local In the sections below, the adequacy of available housing is analyzed by comparing projected future housing availability E-5-70 """'' - - - - -· - -· - - - - ,.. .. - - 3.4-Adequacy of Available Housing in Impact Areas in the local and regional impact areas with the demand for housing related to the project. Housing facilities will be provided at the work camps and family villages for all workers desiring housing and for the families of administra- tive/engineering personnel (workers will not be allowed to bring in their own housing, in the form of trailers or mobile homes, to the work site). In addition, there will be housing provided for construction and operation workers at the railhead in Cantwell. Thus, the probable impacts of the project on housing conditions in the local impact area will be 1 imited to direct and support workers who choose to move their permanent place of residence into the communities. Projections of future housing stock in the local impact area were developed based upon the following methodology: The projected growth in the number of households, under the base case, was calculated by dividing population projections of each community by population-per-household measures which were assumed to decline gradually over time to converge with national and state averages. As discussed in Section 3.1, the population-per-household measures were derived from the study done by ISER to project electricity demand in the Rail belt. In the ISER model, the average number of people per household is estimated to decline by 20 percent over the next 20 years and is consistent with the project decline ·in the national level of number of persons per household (Goldsmith 1980). For Cantwell and most areas of the borough, housing stock was assumed to increase in direct proportion to growth in the number of households. The exception was the area in the Mat-Su Borough outside the incorporated communities, for which it was assumed that the vacancy rate (a very high 25 percent in 1981) would fall in time and, therefore, that the housing stock would increase at a slower rate than the num- ber of households. (i) Matanuska-Susitna Borough As indicated above, housing will be provided at the project site for all construction workers and for the families of administrative/engineering personnel. The majority of construction workers on the project are expected. to use the on site housing facilities. These workers will not be in-migrating into es- tablished communities and, therefore, will have no impact on the housing market ·in the Mat-Su Borough. E-5-71 3.4-Adequacy of Available Housing There will be an impact on the availability of housing in the borough to the extent that workers decide to establish permanent residence in any of the nearby communities. The impact of the in-migrating workers (including support workers as well as direct employees) on'the housing market in the borough is displayed in Table E.5.38. The Watana construction period will be characterized by an influx of workers and their families between 1983 and 1990, and a grad- ual emigration of people from the area after 1990. A total of approximately 485 project-induced house- holds are expected to settle in the Mat-Su Borough between 1985 and 1990, the height of construction activity at the Watana site. Of this nunber, it is estimated that 355 will be households of direct workers on the project and that 130 will be indirect- ly related to the project. There will be a projected 2336 vacant housing units in the borough in 1990, or almost five times as many units as ·in-migrant house- holds. Thus the in-migration is not likely to cause any dislocations in the borough's housing market as a whole. The number of in-migrating workers and their families may be larger than the above figures indi- cate if (1) a substantial nunber of construction workers from outside the state in-migrate in the hope of obtaining employment soon after they arrive, or (2) if lack of housing in the Cantwell area forces those in-migrants who would have 1 iked to 1 ive in Cantwell to find housing in the Mat-Su Borough. The period between 1990 and 1993 wi 11 see an est i- mated 28 percent decline in the overall demand for housing by project-related households, as the number of workers needed at the Watana site declines and some leave the area. However, as a result of base- line forecast growth (i.e., growth unrelated to the project) the overall number of households will continue to increase during this period. The decline in Susitna project-related households could be some- what larger during this period if it appears that the Devil Canyon dam is going to be postponed. The figures above represent an overview of the Mat-Su Borough housing market. Specific impacts can be judged best by looking at the community level. The majority of housing demand by project-related in- migrants will be concentrated in the northern part of the borough. Vacancy rates in that area have his- E-5-72 - - - - - -' - - 3.4-Adequacy of Available Housing torically been very 1 ow and danand is expected to exceed supply, causing rapid construction and some inflation in land and housing prices. This will be discussed in greater detail in the following sections. (ii) Trapper Creek The availability of vacant housing in Trapper Creek has been extremely 1 imited. For instance, in 1981, Trapper Creek contained roughly 68 households and 69 housing units. Very 1 ow vacancy rates are expected to be the norm in the future, as additional housing is built only to satisfy definite needs. As Table E.5.38 shows, it is projected that the number of households and housing units in Trapper Creek will reach about 107 and 108, respectively, in 1990 (without ,the Susitna project). In contrast, it is expected that an additional 168 workers related to the project (88 direct and 80 support) would be desirous of settling their house- holds in Trapper Creek, if the housing were avail- able. Housing demand in the area would thus increase by 157 percent. This figure could be somewhat higher if unemployed workers come into the area in the hope of obtaining employment on the project; however, the lack of housing available for rent will probably preclude a large number of unemployed job-seekers from settling in this area. It is possible that speculative activity prior to the construction peak period will result in additional housing units being available to meet part of the increase in demand. Some families may reside tempo- rarily in cabins or rooms owned by lodges in the area, and part of the housing needs may be met quick- ly by purchase of mobile homes and trailers to be used on individual lots or in trailer parks. !Vobile homes and trai 1 ers are a common form of housing among experienced construction workers who travel. While there is not a large quantity of private 1 and in the Trapper Creek area, there is a sufficient amount to support the expected population infiux. It is probable that this large increase in demand for housing will lead to increases in land and housing prices. E-5-73 3.4 -Adequacy of Available Housing (iii) Talkeenta As in Trapper Creek, the availability of vacant housing in the area of Talkeetna has been extremely limited. In 1981, the housing stock consisted of 196 units, of which only two were vacant. It is expected that this trend of 1 ow vacancy rates will continue. The population influx related to the Watana con- struction phase will result in additional demand for housing by about 88 direct and 29 support households (more if there is an influx of job-seekers) coming into the area between 1983 and 1990. Under baseline forecast conditions~ only about six vacant housing units are expected to be available to accommodate these new families. The expected shortfall in housing supply may be made up by· speculative advance construction,· temporary residence in local lodges/hotels, the use of mobile homes and trailers~ and rapid construction. There appears to be sufficient private 1 and to accommodate this influx. To the extent that the housing supply cannot meet demand, it is likely that some in-migrant families will find housing elsewhere in the northern part of the borough. (iv) Cantwell In 1982, there were 27 vacant housing units in Cantwell. Many of these were somewhat remote or could be considered marginal as year-round housing. The nliTiber of vacant housing units is not expected to increase under the base case. Housing will be provided for workers at the railhead, but not for families of those workers. The demand for housing is expected to increase by approximately 135 households between 1984 and 1986, as result of the project (approximately 53 households of rail head construction workers, 27 other households directly related to the project, and an estimated 55 families of secondary workers). Under Case A, the supply- constraint scenario, it is projected that housing will be available for only 40 percent of these house- holds (55), which will include all of the families of rail head workers who in-migrate. Under Case B, the demand-side scenario, it is expected that housing will be available for the households of all workers E-5-74 - .... - - - ..... - 3.4-Adequacy of Available Housing who want to in-migrate through entrepreneurial activ- ity on the part of Ahtna, Inc., and other private concerns with land holdings in the area. Land availability is currently a significant con- straint to growth in Cantwell. Most of the privately owned land in the Cantwell area is owned by the Ahtna Native corporation. Develo!Jllent of this land for housing for in-migrant households related to the Susitna project will be subject to Ahtna, Inc.•s ap- praisal of the economic feasibility of this develop- ment {Ahtna, Inc. October 1982). It should be stressed that a 11 the housing that will be required by project workers will be supplied by the project contractor at the rail head in Cantwell and at the damsites. Housing development by Ahtna, Inc., is not necessary to the project. Housing develop11ent is likely, however, to affect the deci- sions of project workers regard·ing the establishment of residences outside the camps. Housing devel OIJ!lent is also a significant variable affecting the amount of growth that Cantwell will experience as a result of the p r oj ec t • Upon completion of the railhead, the number of con- struction workers 1 iving in Cantwell will decline, but this decline will be more than offset by the in- coming families of additional workers stationed at the Watana site. By 1990, approximately 330 project- related households are expected to be 1 iving in Cantwell under the Case B scenario (301 direct house- holds and 32 support households). Housing shortages in the first few months of 1985 are likely. It is possible that speculative activity prior to the construction peak period will result in additional housing units being available to meet a portion of the increase in demand. Part of the hous- ing needs may be met quickly by purchase of mobile homes and trailers to be used upon individual lots or trailer parks. The rai"lhead construction workers who bring families will be more 1 ikely to seek rental hous1ng or mobile homes/trailers because of their shorter stay in the area. Entrepreneurial capabil i- ties and attitudes toward risk will be important factors influencing the amount and rate at which housing becomes available. Some families may reside temporarily in rooms owned by the lodges in the area, E-5-75 3.4 -Adequacy of Available Housing although in the st.mmer these families will be compet- ing for room with the tourists to whom these lodges currently cater. It is likely that this large in- crease in demand for housing will lead to increases in land and housing prices. (b) Regional No significant impacts are expected on housing conditions in the Railbelt outside the Matanuska-Susitna Borough. At the peak of construction of the Watana portion of the project (1990), the ClJilulative number of in-migrant households into the reg ion and Cantwell is expected to total approximately 1010 of which 365 will be households of direct workers on the project and 645 will be support households. This repre- sents only 0. 7 percent of the projected number of households in the Ra i 1 belt and Cant we 11 in 1990. Based upon the assumptions that (1) the housing stock keeps pace with base- line forecast housing demand and (2) vacancy rates average about 5 percent, the estimated nt.mber of vacant housing units in the Railbelt and Cantwell in 1990 of 8600 will be far more than sufficient to accommodate the in-migrants. 3.4.2-Watana Operation Phase and Devil Canyon ' Construction Phase (a) Local Table E.5.39 displays the impact of the project on housing demand in the 1 ocal impact area during the Devil Canyon construction phase. (i) Mat-Su Borough As during the first phase of construction, direct workers on the project will have onsite housing provided by the contractor, and there will be housing available for the families of the administrative/ engineering personnel. To the extent that direct or support workers choose to establish residences in borough communities, local housing will be affected. As construction activity on the Devil Canyon portion of the project begins, another 48 project-related households ar.e expected to move into the Mat-Su Borough between 1995 and 1999. Most of these house- hal ds will be related to in-mig rant support workers, as it is probable that there will be enough direct workers for the project among local residents and the ·E-5-76 - - - """\ I - --' - - """' ' - r 3.4-Adequacy of Avail able Housing ( i i ) workers who had stayed after construction of the Watana facility was completed. Existing housing is expected to be more than adequate to accommodate these workers. Trapper Creek During the Devil Canyon construction phase, approxi- mately 34 additional families are expected to move into Trapper Creek between 1995 and 1999, bringing to 111 the number of project-related households in 1999 (about 40 per~ent of all households in the community in that year). As this will be below the earlier Watana peak nllllber of households, adequate housing is expected to be available. After 1999, project- related households are again expected to move out of the area. Approximately 73 of these families will remain in the community at the completion of con- strue ti on. (iii) Talkeetna ( i v) Between 1995 and 1999, approximately 12 households related to the project are expected to move into Talkeetna, bringing the cumulative number of families living in the community (related to the project) in 1999 to 89, and the total number of households to 670. Adequate housing is expected to be available. At the end of construction of the project, about 72 project-related households are expected to remain in Ta ·1 keetna. Cant we 11 Upon completion of the Watana portion of the project, it is expected that approximately 70 project-related households will gradually move out of the area, and this could result in an oversupply of housing in the community, along with a decline in the value of homes and real estate. The projected decline in housing demand would equal 17 percent of total households in the community. No additional households are expected to move into Cantwell during the Devil Canyon phase of the project. Under Case B, approximately 264 project-related households will be living in the community in 1999, representing an increase of 91 percent over the number of households projected to be in the community under the base case. E-5-77 3.4-Adequacy of Available Housing (b) Regional No measurable impacts on housing in the Railbelt are ex- pected during this phase of construction. In 1999, the peak year of Devil canyon construction, a cumulative total of 610 project-related households wi 11 have moved into the reg ion and stayed, representing 0. 3 percent of the total number of households in the area. Adequate housing is expected to be available. 3.4.3-Watana and Devil Canyon Operation Phases As construction of the Devil Canyon facilities is completed, it is expected that some households of project-related workers will leave the area. Trapper Creek will be most affected by this decline in housing demand. In that com- munity, approximately 38 households are expected to leave the area between 1999 and 2003. M oversupply of housing could result. The combined operation phase of the project will require a direct work force of about 170. All of these workers and thei.r families will have housing at the site. There will be no impacts on housing conditions in communities in the area. About 290 of the original 500 households which moved into communities in the Mat-Su Borough are expected to remain in the region. The decline in number of households is not ex- pected to have a significant impact on housing, as the pop- ulation of the borough will grow rapidly anyway and the decline will occur over a 13-year period (1990-2003). 3.5-Displacement and Influences on Residences and Business The potential for displacement of residences and businesses by project facilities and for changing business activity are discussed in this section. As can be seen from the following discussion, displacement impacts will be very small. Other influences on business activity as result of the project will be far more important. 3.5.1-Residences Although some cabins used intermittently by hunters, trappers, and recreationists will be displaced by the project, no permanent residences are expected to be inundated or otherwise displaced. Some residents of the middle and upper basin may voluntarily leave the area for other wilderness regions in response to in- creased construction and recreational activities. E-5-78 - ....., ' - 3.5-Displacement and Influences on Residences and Businesses The transmission line is currently routed to avoid all known residences and other improvements; however, there are a few privately owned parcels of 1 and that may have improvements on them. The status of these lands and potential improvements on them will be updated by ongoing studies. If there are any displaced residences, displacement would occur during the construction phase of Watana. 3.5.2-Businesses There are no known businesses that will be physically displaced by the reservoirs, the transmission 1 ines, the rail spur, or other project-related structures or activities. However, there are businesses that will be impacted in other ways by the project. Through its impact on the distribution of fish.and wildlife .and through increases of access to the area, the project may affect certain aspects of business activity. The possible effects are discussed bel ow in regard to natural resource-dependent b usi- nesses. (a) Natural Resource-Dependent Businesses During the construction phase of each dam, guides are ex- pected to adjust to changes in abundance and 1 ocati on of fish and game species. When both dams are in operation, ,.,... guides may benefit from increased access to wilderness areas. Adjustment by guides may take the form of conducting more activity in alternative areas to which they have already been assigned. In the past, guides could register to oper- ate in any or all of Alaska • s 26 Game Management Units {GMUs). Since 1976, however, the state has decided to limit guiding operations to three GMUs for each guide. Those al- ready registered in additional units are allowed to main- tain their rights to those units, but new guides must regis- ter for only three units~ In 1980, there were 194 different guides eligible to operate in Unit 13. Only seven of these were registered as operating only in this unit. Statewide, there were about 340 guides. Therefore, while close to 60 percent of all guides were eligible to operate in this GMU, most of them had al terna- tive eligibility elsewhere. Harvest statistics from 1976 through 1979 show that GMU 13 accounts for 20 percent of statewide moose harvest. Hunting activity as measured by number of hunters shows a similar distribution. If guiding E-5-79 3.5-Displacement and Influences on Residences and Businesses is proportional to hunting activity level, these statistics show that some 80 percent of guiding activity occurs outside of GMU 13. It is possible that other areas could be used more intensively by the guides who will be impacted in GMU 13. The potential impact of this intensified use on existing guides in other areas is not currently known. Lodges catering to hunters and fishermen could find new opportunities to offer access to activities such as cross- country skiing or to provide facilities for business con- ferences. Guiding and lodging businesses operate in the area, as do commercial trappers. Hunting, and river and lake fishing are the mainstay of guiding and some lodge businesses, while furbearing animals support trapping operations. As discussed in Section 4 of Chapter 3, the net impacts on fish and game (with mitigation) will be small. The distri- bution of these resources, however, is likely to change. This change may make it necessary for guide businesses to move part of their operations elsewhere. The move may in- volve the stategic relocation of some physical assets, such as cabins. The project itself, however, is not expected to inundate any such assets or other improvements. Reduction in the remote nature of the area is expected to have some impact on guiding businesses. If the area becomes readily accessible, guides will lose part of their revenue because some of the residents will not need guiding ser- vices. In addition, the area may become less preferred by foreigners. The extent of such impacts is not now predict- able. Trappers will be affected by loss of habitat for furbearers, but will benefit from inc rea sed access. The amount and location of harvestable salmon could change, but long-term impacts on the activities of Cook Inlet commercial fisher- men, recreational fishermen, and other user groups are expected to be small relative to recent activity levels of these groups. Some estimates of economic and related impacts on commercial fish are reported in Section 3.7.1. Impacts on recreation will include possible changes in hunt- ing and fishing areas and the 1 oss of sections of the Susitna River to white:...water kayaking, but general recrea- tional use is expected to increase as a result of improved access when both dams are in operation. E-5-80 .... - - - .... - 3.5-Displacement and Influences on Residences and Businesses (b) One active mining site, No. 1 Moose Creek, will be totally inundated. The project may be beneficial to other mining activities by improving access, which will allow existing claims to be worked more profitably and facilitate discovery of new deposits. tvbst of these benefits would begin to accrue when both dams are in operation and if miners are permitted to use access routes created by construction and operation activities. It should be noted that Cook Inlet Region, Inc., a regional Native corporation, and a few of its villages have claimed a substantial amount of land in the proposed project develop- ment area. Currently there are very few if any Natives that live in the project area. The major impact of the project on this corporation and its villages would be to provide them a possible economic windfall: the claimed land could be traded more advantageously than if the project were not developed; or, the claimed land, if conveyed, would probably be worth more with the development of the dams than without the development of the dams. General Businesses Business activity will increase along the Parks Highway be- tween Anchorage and Fairbanks during the mid-to-late 1980s as a result of rail head construction and operation at Cantwell, construction of the access road and camp, and con- struction of the dam and related facilities at Watana. In general, it is expected that the construction, transporta- tion, wholesale and retail trade, real estate, and services sectors will benefit. Businesses that are contracted to provide specific goods or services such as fuel, communica- tions, housekeeping, trucking, helicopter or airplane sup- port will benefit. Existing support sector businesses such as restaurants, service stations, lodging establishments, retail food stores, etc., will expand and new businesses will be started. Table E.o.40 shows the estimated number of support jobs that will be created by the project in the Railbelt region, and the Mat-Su Borough and Cantwell. Th.e project is expected to have a si~nificant impact on business activity in Cantwell, a significant but lesser i-m- pact on Trapper Cre-ek, and sti 11 1 ess of an impact on Talkeetna, Houston, Wasilla, Fairban-ks, Anchorage, and Pa1mer. Cantwell's businesses will have increased sales because a relatively larg-e population will relocate there and because it is the community along the access route loca- ted nearest to the construction site. Native Alaskans in £-5--81 3.5-Displacement and Influences on Residences and Businesses Cantwell, shareholders of Ahtna, Inc., wi 11 stand to benefit substantially from this increased business. Many of these Natives lack employment during some or most of the year. The new residents will have spending patterns similar to those residents now 1 iv ing in Cantwell, and the workers hwo pass through Cantwell are expected to concentrate their ex- penditures on food, beverages, lodging and related items. Each of the other cities or canmunities mentioned above, except for Palmer, will experience the same types of impacts as Cantwell, but the impacts will be less pronounced. Be- cause Palmer is not on the Parks Highway and, therefore, not subject to pass-through workers, it will not receive busi- ness stimulus from this source. Members of the Cook Inlet region will own most of the land adjacent to the rail spur that is built from Gold Creek to Devil Canyon. There may be opportunity for the provision of a railroad operations support. Currently, Ahtna, Inc., and the Native village of Knik pro- vide camp operation services to the Susitna studies person- nel located at the Watana site. Both Ahtna and CIRI believe there will be opportunities for construction and camp opera- tion contracts as a result of the project. During 1985-1990, there could be temporary shortages of goods and services in some of the smaller communities where workers pass through and/or settle. For example, the community of Cantwell will experience significant pass- through and settlement in 1985-1986. Currently, most residents get their food and household items in Anchorage. Unless businesspersons plan and prepare for providing considerably more products in stores in Cantwell, there ~ould be frequent temporary shortages of these products. Another possibility is that the smaller canmunities could have excess retail capacity in the early-to-mid 1990s and from 2000 onward. This would be the case if these communi- ties make permanent rather than temporary business adjust- ments to the demands of the peak work force and associated relocatin~ workers. (c) Employment The estimated number of support jobs created by the project in the Raflbelt region and the Mat-Su Borough is shown in Table E.5.40. Most of the jobs in the Mat-Su Borough will be located in Trapper Creek, Talkeetna, and unincorporated E-5-82 - - - - - - - - - - -I J - - ,.. ... -' 3.6 -Fi seal Impact Analysis areas of the borough. It is estimated that current residents of the borough will fill about 55 percent of the jobs created in the borough. These support sector jobs will have a significant impact on the unincorporated communities and areas because employment is seasonal or sporadic and the unemployment rate at any time of the year is probably quite high. Because many of these jobs will be filled by second job holders (spouses and young people) in the base population and dependents of in-migrating workers, they will create beneficial economic impacts because they will add to family income without adding significantly to the population. The Susitna project will create a significant number of jobs for the region and the Mat-Su Borough. These are shown in Table E.5.41 along with projections of jobs in the Base Case for the region and the Mat-Su Borough. It is apparent from this table that, during the construction phases, the number of jobs created in the region by the project is significant when compared to the Base Case projections of jobs for the region. During construction, the project will increase the total number of jobs available in the region by two to three percent. 3.6-Fiscal Impact Jlilalysis: Evaluation of Incremental Local Government Expenditures and Revenues 3.6.1 -Watana-Construction Phase (a) Local ( i ) Mat-Su Borough The expenditures by the Ma t-Su Borough with and with- out the project have been projected on a per capita basis in January 1982 real dollars. It was assumed that current per capita expenditures would be appl ic- ab 1 e to the future. Other major assumptions regard- ing revenue projections include: (1) that there will be real growth in property values; (2) future in- creases will be realized in the mill rates; and that {3) certain per capita receipts of state shared funds, federally shared funds, and municipal assis- tance funds wi 11 be forthcoming. A 1 i st of these and other assumptions, rationale for asst.Dllptions, and methodology used in making the projections is con- tained in Appendix S.C. Additional information regarding methodology may be found in Frank Orth & Associates, Inc. (1982). E-5-83 3.6 -Fi seal Impact Analysis Currently, and in recent history, the borough has spent more than has been raised conventionally. Thus, the per capita spending leve1s used in these projections assume that the borough will be able to continue meeting local needs/wants through state grants. To the extent that the borough may be unable to obtain state grants at the same levels as in the past, the projected level of disparity between revenues from conventional sources and expenditures may not be realized. The project•s impacts on the borough budget as a whole will be minimal. Most of the growth in reve- nues and expenditures will be related to the baseline population conditions. The impacts will be largest in the school district and service areas funds. In absolute terms, the education fund will experience the highest increases both in expenditures and revenues. On the other hand, the service areas fund will experience the highest impact relative to the baseline conditions especially in the revenues. Table E.5.42 isolates the area services fund revenue projections for selec- ted years. The impact on the general fund wi 11 be small as will the impact on the land management fund. The impact on the general fund wi 11 ·j n part be rel a- ted to the education and service areas portion of funds that are traditionally channeled through this fund. Revenue impacts of the four funds are discussed first. This is followed by a similar analysis of the expenditures for each fund. This is not to say that the funds are independent of each other. For example, the general fund revenues have elements of education funds as well as funds that are collected as non-areawide taxes for services in the service areas. Discussion of individual funds is therefore 1 imited to i denti fyi ng impact types. M attempt to aggregate over the four funds would lead to some double counting of revenues and is, therefore, avoided. Using the figures in Table E.5.43, comparisons between the future with the project and a future without the project (base case) are highlighted, as are comparisons between expenditures and revenues. E-5-84 - - - - - - - - .... "'"' i I 3.6-Fiscal Impact Jlllalysis All the impacts mentioned are based on total popul a- t ion influx estimates including the population as- sociated with both the direct construction workers and secondary workers. In 1985 and 1990, the direct population influx will account for 78 percent of total population influx. This proportion will in- crease to 93 percent in 1994 as some of the secondary workers 1 eave after completion of Watana. At the height of Devil Canyon construction in 1999, this proportion is expected to drop again to 86 percent as some indirect and induced populations are attracted by the new level of activity. -Revenues All of the four major revenue funds of the borough, including general funds, service areas funds, land management, and school district funds, will grow between now and the end of the Watana dam construc- tion period. All four funds will approximately double from current levels by the year 1990 and will have more than doubled by 1994. This growth wi 11 occur with or without the project. During this period, the greatest project impact in terms of deviation from the baseline projections will occur in the service areas fund. It is pro- jected that the 1990 service areas revenues ($3.4 mill ion) will exceed the baseline revenue projec- tions ($2.7 million) by about 26 percent as result of the population influx during construction at Watana. Even as early as 1985, the service areas fund will have an incremental impact over the base case of 6 percent, whi 1 e the other funds will be relatively unaffected by preconstruction activity. The education fund, which in absolute magnitude is greater than the other three funds combined, wi 11 experience incremental impacts of the project amounting to less than one percentage point in 1985. The impact in 1990 is projected to be 6.2 percent. In 1994, the education fund revenues with the project exceed the education fund base case by four percent (approximately $2.5 mill ion). The general fund revenues and land management fund revenues will receive relatively 1 ittl e impact. E-5-85 3.6 -Fi seal Impact Analysis -Expenditures Relative to the baseline, increases in expenditures due to the project are expected to be smaller than increases in revenues. In absolute terms, however, revenues and expenditures will rise by approximate- ly the same amount for two of the fund.s (the general fund and the 1 and management fund). It is estimated that the population infiux into the borough will reach 1389 in 1990 at the height of Watana construction. Related to this population will be an estimated 359 school-age children for whom school facilities and services will be required. In addition, there will be an estimated 300 school-age children at the onsite village for whom the borough will be partially responsible. This wi 11 cause an additional expenditure of $4.0 mill ion (for education) over the baseline estimate of $61.1 million. These monies will go toward pro- viding such services as general instruction, opera- tion and maintenance, and other support services. Table E.5.44 contains school-age children projec- tions with and without the project. The service areas fund is responsi b 1 e for such services as ambulance, sanitary landfill, library, and road ma·intainance. As the population grows, demand for these services is expected to follow. The construction of the project will bring several hundred people into some of the canmunities such as Ta 1 keetn a and Trapper Creek. It is estimated that this population influx will cause additional spend- ing for service equal to about $200,000 in 1990. It must be pointed out, however, that in all four major fund categories, expenditures are expected to be higher than revenues. The incremental expendi- tures owing to the project generally do not exceed $200,000 in 1985 for any fund. Expenditures of the education fund in 1990 are projected to increase by $4 million, for a 6.5 percent increase over a base case estimate of $61.1 million. This is the high- est absol uti:! impact on any fund expenditure or revenue item that year. -Comparing Expenditures to Revenues Impacts on both revenues and expenditures are pro- jected to be small relative to the base case. With E-5-86 - - - - - i ', - - .... - - - - - II"" I ' ' .... 3.6 -Fi seal Impact Analysis or without the project, there will be deficits in the borough budget. As can be seen below, the project itself will not greatly contribute to the worsening of these deficits. 1990 Project-Related Pressures on the Borough Budget (in million dollars) Increase Increa-se in in Fund Spending Revenues General Fund 1.0 1.1 School Fund 3. 1 4.0 Service Areas 0.7 0.2 Land Management 0. 1 0.0 Increase in Deficits 0. 1 0. 9 -0.5 -0. 1 It is expected, however, that the borough will have to increase service substantially in the service areas such as Talkeetna and Trapper Creek as a result of the project. A. substantial portion of the service area revenues comes from the state-shared funds and municipal assistance funds. Consequently, there are likely to be time lags between the time these services are initially required and the arrival of funds. A portion of the borough general fund comes from the state in the fonn of school debt service reimburse- ment. Recent 1 eg i sl ati on has increased this fund- ing level to cover 90 percent (up from 80 percent) of the school bond debt service and has reduced the reimbursement 1 ag time so that state funds can be available within the same fiscal year as the expen- ditures. Implicit in the projections is the assumption that the property taxes wi 11 grow because of both an expanding tax base and increased mill rates, and may constitute more than the 30 percent share of the service areas fund revenues. If this were to happen, the problem of time lags could become even more acute. There is usually a time lag between the time property is assessed and put on tax rolls and the receipt of tax dollars. In the meantime new services may be required, but they face a funds shortfall. Although this has not been a big pro- blem according to the borough budget director, it E-5-87 3 • 6 - F i sc a l Imp a c t An a l y s i s could be in the future when the spending levels become larger with inc rea sed populations {Matanuska-Susitna Borough Finance Director October 1982). ( i i) Talkeetna Talkeetna is not incorporated and therefore cannot collect taxes. As a result, the fiscal pressures and benefits of the project on Talkeetna will be felt in the borough budget. In 1981, the borough collected $73,000 (in 1982 dollars) on behalf of the community of Talkeetna. In 1990, revenue collections without the project could amount to $169,000. With the pro- ject, the corresponding figure would be $188,000, causing an ·incremental increase in revenue of $19,000. ( i i i ) Cant we 1 1 Cantwell has no local government and is located in an unorganized borough. Thus, the only currently ex·ist- ing local entities that will experience fiscal im- pacts from the project will include the non-profit group, Community of Cantwell , Inc., and the Ra i1 belt School District. The only annual revenue source upon which the Commu- nity of Cantwell, Inc., can depend is state-revenue sharing; this usually averages between $25,000 and $32,000 per year for unincorporated communities, and is not based upon the size of population. Thus, it is not expected that the increase in population in Cantwell will be reflected in an increase in these revenues. The fiscal impact of the project on Cantwell is un- certain, as the result of the range of population impacts that could occur. Because of the unincor- porated nature of the community, expenditures will not necessarily need to increase under Case A, the 1 ow-impact scenario. A peak population influx of approximately 200 people is not expected to have a large impact on the planned fire station, with the exception of an increased need for volunteer fire- fighters. However, if the community felt that addi- tional expenditures were needed for community facili- ties (such as a new solid waste disposal area) be- cause of the population influx related to the pro- ject, it is probable that the additional revenue E-5-88 ~- ~' - - - - - - - . ~ - ~· ..... - ,... 3.6-Fiscal Impact Jlna1ysis would be sought by way of state grants. At some point in the future, Cantwell may decide to incorporate in order to widen its revenue base and provide more facilities and services for the residents there. Under Case B, the high-impact scenario, approximately 1000 project-related people could move into the com- munity by the peak of Watana construction. The possibility of incorporation of the community and the need to finance additional community facilities and services would increase greatly. The Railbelt school district will be faced with an increase in both expenditures and revenues as a result of the population influx associated with the project • It is estimated that expansion of the Cantwell school will be needed, and the financing for this expansion would need to be requested from the state 1 egis- lature. The school district expects there would be a one-year 1 ag between a request for revenue for a capital project of this type and the receipt of authorization. Another 2 years would be required for planning and construction. Operating expenses at the school would also increase to reflect the 250 percent increase in enrollment. The addition of between 7 and 10 teachers would result in an increase in expenditures for teachers' salaries, alone, of $252,000 to $350,000 in 1982 real dollars. Other operating expenses could also be expected to increase proportionately. Total expenses could be expected to reach approximately $1,430,000 by 1990. The increase in enrollment will also result in addi- tional revenues for the school district. Based upon the present average revenue of $8,683 per school- child, 1990 revenues for the school district could be expected to rise by approximately $1,300,000 under the high-impact scenario. (b) Regional The project is not expected to have significant regional im- pacts during this or subsequent phases of development. For further discussion of this, refer to Frank Orth & Asso- ciates, Inc. (April 1982). E-5-89 3.6-Fiscal Impact Analysis 3.6.2 -Watana -Operation Phase; Devil Canyon - Construction Phase (a) Local (i) Mat-Su Borough Overall, the borough revenues and expenditures will continue to grow during this period, which is expec- ted to last from 1994 to 2002. The following is an analysis of revenues and expenditures at selected intervals during this period. -Revenues • General Fund It was assumed that the state would continue to fund the school district through the foundation program, pupil transportation revenues, and other grants. Traditional revenues from these sources have been directly or indirectly based on the school-age population. For this reason, the Susitna project, by increasing the niJTiber of school-age children in the borough 1 s responsi- bility, will lead to increased revenues. By 1994, general fund revenues will have grown from a 1981 level of $15.7 million to a baseline projection of $33.1 million. These revenues could, however, reach a higher level of $33.8 million with the Susitna project. The incremen- tal impact is an approximate 2.1 percent increase over the baseline forecast. In 1999, the corres- ponding forecast for the general fund revenues are $41 million and $41.9 million and show an incremental impact over the base case of 2.2 per- cent. This trend of diminishing relative impacts continues and is reflected in the projections for the year 2002 when the project impact over and beyond the base case forecast will be 1.9 per- cent. The incremental dollar amount is estimated at $0.9 million. • Service Area Fund At the start of the Watana operation phase and the early stages of Devil Canyon construction (1994), the service areas fund revenues will have E-5-90 - - - - - - - - - - - - - r 3.6 -Fi seal Impact Analysis grown to $3.9 million compared to a baseline forecast of $3.1 million. The incremental impact relative to the base case will equal about 25.8 percent (compared to the 1990 impact of 25.9 percent). The absolute magnitude of the impact itself would be $0.8 million. By 1999, the absolute magnitude of the project- related increase is projected to equal one mi 11 ion dollars. Re 1 ativ e to the base 1 in e fore- cast for that year, this translates to a 27 per- cent ·increment. At the completion of the Devil Canyon construction phase in 2002, the incremen- tal impact of the project would be 23.8 percent based on a base case forecast of $4.2 million in revenues and a project scenario revenue level of $5.2 million • • Land Management Fund Land management fund revenues are the smallest of the four funds considered. During this phase of develoJlllent, the greatest impact on land manage- ment revenues is projected to occur in 1999. This wi 11 be a 3.4 percent impact but will be negligible ($0.1 million) in absolute magnitude. • School District Fund The baseline forecast for this phase shows that school funds will grow from $62.1 million in 1994 to $80.9 million in 1999 and $93.4 million in 2002. The corresponding incremental impacts of the project are estimated at 4.0 percent, 3.2 percent, and 1.8 percent, respectively. In no case does the absolute increment exceed $2.6 million. -Expenditures • Genera 1 Fund Incremental impacts in the general fund expendi- tures are projected to be no higher than 1. 7 percent of the base case in 1994. The baseline expenditure for that year is $40.1 million. In 1999, expenditures will have grown to $51.2 mil- lion in the base case and $51.9 million, assuming E-5-91 3. 6 -Fi seal Impact Analysis the project scenario, and wi 11, therefore, experience an incremental impact of 1.4 percent. The reduction in relative incremental impacts is also shown in the 2002 projections where the impacts amount to 1.0 percent • • Service Area Fund With the project, the service areas fund expendi- tures are projected to experience somewhat higher percentage incremental impacts than wi 11 the general fund expenditures. Service areas expen- ditures will be increased by $0.2 million in each of the years 1994 and 1999, leading to correspon- ding percentage impacts of 1. 7 percent and 1. 3 percent. These estimates are based on baseline projections of $11.7 million and $15.9 million, res pee t i v e 1 y • Land Management Fund Actual changes in the base case expenditures re- sulting from the project are forecast to be very limited • • School District Expenditures As in the Watana construction phase, the number of school-age children at the onsite village school is expected to remain constant at about 300. Workers are expected to take advantage of the availability of housing at the work village throughout the Devil Canyon construction period so that the number of school-age children at this village will remain high, although the total construction work force will be lower than in the earlier period. However, the ni..Dllber of school- age children associated with the project in the rest of the borough will be somewhat 1 ower (see Table E.5.44). For this reason the project im- pacts on the school budget will be lower than those to be experienced in the earlier period. Incremental impacts on the school district expen- ditures are, however, forecast to be greater than those of the other borough funds both relative to the base case and also in absolute terms. In 1994, impacts on expenditures are projected to be 4. 5 percent of the $76.1 mill ion basel in e. The E-5-92 - - - - - - - ,,..,. - - - - - ,.. .. - 3. 6 -Fi seal Impact Analysis ( i i ) corresponding impact 1 evel s for the years 1999 and 2002 are, respectively, 3.8 percent and 1.9 percent. Of the three years considered, 1999 will experience the largest absolute impact at $3. 5 m i 11 ion • -Comparing Expenditures to Revenues As in the Watana construction phase, revenues and expenditures wi 11 grow during the second phase of development. This growth is depicted in the pro- jections that assume construction and operation of the project as well as in the base case. Over time, a widening gap between expenditures and revenues is forecast and will occur with or without the project. In general, the growing deficit situation is not forecast to be worsened nor alle- viated by development of the project. However, examination of individual funds (see below) reveals that school district deficits get slightly worse while general funds and service areas funds tend to experience some improvement with the project. The amount of relief or additional burden, however, is dwarfed by the overall size of the deficits involved. 1990 Project-Related Pressures on the Borough Budget (in million dollars) Incremental Incremental Fund Spending Revenues General Fund 0.9 0.7 School Fund 2.6 3.5 Service Areas 1.0 0.2 Land Management 0.1 0.1 Talkeetna Inc rem en ta 1 Deficits -0.2 0.9 -0.8 0.0 Revenue collections on behalf of Talkeetna are pro- jected to grow in the base case from $169,000 in 1990 to $233,000 in 1994 and to $365,000 in 1999. The corresponding growth with the project is forecast to be from $188,000 in 1990 to $246,000 in 1994 and again to $382,000 by the year 1999. The incremental project impacts in 1994 and 1999 are, therefore, $13,000 and $17,000 compared to $19,000 in 1990. These increments will contribute to growth of the service areas fund revenues. E-5-93 3.6 -Fi seal Impacat Analysis (iii) Cantwell As the Watana construction phase is completed, it is expected that between 70 and 215 project-related residents wi 11 1 eave Cant we 11 ( athoug h the population and school enrollment in Cantwell are expected to remain more than three times as large as would be the case under the base case). This would be reflected in a decline in any per capita revenues that the community receives and a lessened ability to support any new infrastructure that has been developed. The school district will also be faced with a decline in both revenues and expenditures as the enrollment in the school declines by about 30 children. Over- capacity in the school, and any resulting financial burden, may be avoided by careful planning. 3.6.3-Watana and Devil Canyon -Operation Phases (a) Lac a 1 (i) Mat-Su Borough There will be few residual fiscal impacts after com- pletion of Devil Canyon construction. The service areas and the school district will continue to serve some of the population influx together with the operations personnel at the dams who remain in the borough. The nUTlber of school-age children associ- ated with the project will decline. Those at the construction village will be reduced by at least half, 1 eav ing the children of operations personnel. Most of the project-related school-age children in the general population will move out of the borough with their families. Adjustments in services by the borough during the earlier peri ads wi 11 be adequate to handle requirements by the residual population. (ii) Talkeetna In the base case, the borough is projected to collect $468,000 on behalf of Talkeetna in 2002. With the project, the corresponding collections are expected to be $482,000. The incremental impacts because of the project in this year, will, therefore, be both lower in absolute magnitude and more relative to the baseline than the 1990 forecasts. E-5-94 - - - - - - -' - 3.7-Impacts on Fish and Wildlife User Groups 3.7-Local and Regional Impacts on Fish and Wildlife User Groups The purpose of this section is to indicate how the project will affect users of fish, game and furbearers. Amounts and locations of impacts as these relate to users are provided where possible. The section is organized in three main parts. These parts discuss po- tential impacts on users of fish, g arne and furbearers, respectively. An overview of adverse impacts on these users is provided below. Many persons use fish, game and furbearers that caul d be affected by the project. Some of these persons, particularly those in the "rail- road communities" north of Talkeetna, have reported that up to one-half of their food has come from locally caught fish and game, and home gar- dens (Braund 1982). Interviews with persons in the railroad and other nearby communities indicate that the ava·il ability of fish and game is important to their 1 ifestyl e as well as to their physical sustenance. If any users are adversely impacted by the project, they will most likely be these types of users. Without mitigation, persons who use salmon, moose and pine marten will be most affected. It is projected that up to 6000 spawning salmon could be lost annually from several sloughs between Devil Canyon 'and Talkeetna. It is also projected that a significant number of moose and pine marten caul d be 1 ost from the middle Susitna basin, primarily south of the Susitna River in the case of moose, and in the impoundment areas and transmission corridor in the case of pine marten. In addi- tion, the geographic distributions of salmon, moose and pine marten will be altered. With mitigation, it is projected that potential salmon losses in the slouths between Devil Canyon and Talkeetna will be negligible; there will be no decrease in moose populations; and that the distribution of moose will change. It is projected that moose will tend to congregate in browse-enhanced tracts during the winter and hunting seasons. In addition, altho~gh no large changes in salmon distributions are projected, it is possible that salmon distribution among sloughs could change. There is no way to mitigate most of the loss of pine marten. While the biophysical effects of the project, with mitigation, will be negligible to most users, this might not be the case for all users. Changes in salmon, moose and pine marten distributions will disrupt the use patterns of local users. The largest impact of the project on fish and wildlife users will be from easier and, therefore, increased access to fish and wildlife. Ex- isting as well as potential users will have easier access. This will increase competition for fish and wildlife among existing users and new users. Potential conflicts could be reduced through effective manage- ment. E-5-95 3.7-Impacts on Fish and Wildlife User Groups 3.7.1-Fish (a) Methodology The impacts to Alaska•s fishery resources which would result from construction of the Su sitna dams depend upon 1 oss of habitat rather than specific loss of fish. The river habi- tat can be viewed as a production ground capable of produc- ing a number of fish each year. The exact numbers produced depend upon many aquatic and environmental conditions which vary over time. Data are available which provide salmon escapement levels for several points along the Susitna River for 1981 and 1982. To the extent that these two years are representative of the long run salmon productivity of the Susitna River, they can be used to estimate potential 1 osses from dam construction. Compared to long term averages, both 1981 and 1982 salmon returns were high. Information from Chapter 3 suggests that that potential impacts to the salmon resouces down stream from Ta 1 keetn a resulting from dam construction would be 11 limited 11 • Therefore, this section has focused on how the potential impacts above Ta 1 keetna would impact users of the fisheries resources. Assuming a worst case, the maximum loss to the salmon re- source would be 100 percent of the slough spawning escape- ment above Talkeetna. This provides an estimate of the maximum potential loss which would occur annually, given the 1981 and 1982 escapement 1 evel s. Harvest-to-escapement ratios for Cook Inlet were estimated by ADF&G in 1975 (Friese 1975). These ratios can be used to estimate total potential salmon losses which would result from loss of spawning salmon above Talkeetna. In Chapter 3, another estimate of potential losses to salmon escapement is provided for salmon utilizing slough habitats for spawning in the Ta 1 keetna-to-Oev il Canyon stretch of river. These sloughs may not be accessible during the spawning season as a result of dam construction. The po- tential loss of the nLUtlber of salmon utilizing the slough habitat for spawning~ therefore, is another estimate of the potential loss to the salmon resource. Both of these esti- mates are developed in this section. Specific impacts on fishery resources are discussed, to the extent possible, in the section immediately following. In later sections, users of the resources are discussed in the categories of commercial and noncommercial use. E-5-96 - ~' - - - - - - - - .... I""' - 3.7-Impacts on Fish and Wildlife User Groups (b) The Commercial Fishery A basic assumption has been made that the commercial fishery for salmon produced in the Susitna system occurs only in up- per Cook Inlet. This assumption is based upon an ADF&G/Su Hydro 1982 report (ADF&G 1982h). The report states that commercial fisheries in lower Cook Inlet are primarily ter- minal, occurring in small bays. Therefore, few salmon mi- grating to Upper Cook Inlet are intercepted in the lower in- 1 et area. The upper Cook Inlet is divided into two management divi- sions: the Central District and the Northern District. A map showing the boundaries of the management area of Cook Inlet is shown in Figure E.3.7 in Chapter 3. The most im- portant regulatory distinction between the two areas is that both set and drift gillnets are allowed in the Central District, whereas only set gillnets are allowed in the Northern District. Table E.5.45 -shows the average annual commercial catch and value from the fishery in the upper Cook Inlet. The most important species, from the standpoint of economic value, is sockeye salmon. The average annual sockeye ex-vessel value for the ten-year period from 1973 to 1982 was $10,717,244. The average annual catch was 9,173,314 pounds. The second most important species in terms of value is chum salmon. The average annual chum catch was 4,940,850 pounds, giving an average annual ex-vessel value of $3,145,970. The other species in descending order of economic value in the upper Cook Inlet are coho, pinks, and chinooks. The actual catch and value fluctuate for each species from year to year, but the ten-year average provides a reasonable indication of recent trends (Commercial Fisheries Entry Commission 1982a). The Cook Inlet commercial catch can be attributed only in part to salmon production from the Susitna system. The fishery is on mixed stocks with the contribution by individual river systems being indeterminant. The exception is sockeye salmon; estimates for the upper Cook Inlet commercial fisheries in 1979 and 1980 fisheries show stock contribution to the sockeye harvest by the Susitna River was 22.7 percent and 19.2 percent respectively (Friese 1975). The comme.rcial data provided for Cook Inlet refers to the entire commercial catch rather than the specific proportion of the catch attributable to salmon production from the Susitna system. E-5-97 3.7 -Impacts on Fish and Wildlife User Groups The number of participants in the commercial salmon fishery is limited to the number of permits issued. The numbers of drift gillnet and set gillnet permits for Cook Inlet for the years 1975 to 1981 are shown in Table E.5.46. A small num- ber of the set net permits, perhaps 10 percent, are from outside the upper Cook In 1 et fishery. The total n l.ITiber of permits used in 1981 was 1161 (ADF&G 1982b). With an aver- age of 2.5 people per set net site, the total number of fishermen in upper Cook Inlet would be approximately 2500 people. The catch distribution between the different gear types varies by species due to the different areas fished. Chinooks are taken mostly in the set net fishery, whereas chum salmon are taken mostly in the drift net fishery. The other species are taken on a more even basis. In general, the set net fishery takes more of the coho and pink catch, while the drift net fishery takes more of the sockeye catch. (i) Specific Impacts The specific impacts to the different fish species that would result from construction of the Susitna dams have been determined in a preliminary manner. For the salmon re- sources, for example, there are point estimates for the 1981 and 1982 escapements of fish passing upriver from Talkeetna. This upstream reach of the river, from Talkeetna to Devil Canyon, where many of the impacts are 1 ikely to occur. It would be erroneous to assume that two point estimates provide a total representation of the actual productive capacity of the river. Similarly, it could be misleading to assign values to potential losses based only on these estimates, since the final evaluation of all impacts of construction of the Susitna dams has not been completed. Given the above qualifications, the following discussion may be useful as an example of order of magnitude of potential project impacts on the commercial fisheries. The slough habitat from Talkeetna to Devil Canyon has been identified as the most 1 ikely area for adverse impact from project operation. The largest potential impact above Talkeetna would be to chum salmon, since this species utilizes sloughs, in addition to the tributary and mainstream Susitna River, for spawning. In 1981, an estimated 20,835 chums passed upriver past the Talkeetna Station. Using this figure of 20,835 fish and assuming a worst case (Case 1) that the dams would result in a 100 percent loss, a loss to the total Cook Inlet chum run of 45,837 fish would be indi- cated. This assl.ITies a catch escapement ratio of 2.2:1. Applying an ex-vessel prive to this number of fish, a poten- tial ex-vessel value of $214,517 would have been lost to the commercial fishery in 1981 (see Table E.5.47). E-5-98 - - - - -· - ~I - - - - 3.7 -Impacts on Fish and Wildlife User Groups (c) This estimate should not be interpreted as a precise figure since it is based upon preliminary biological data. It does, however, provide· a point estimate for the potential post-project loss to the upper Cook Inlet commercial fishery for chum salmon based on a number of assumptions. Table E.5.47 shows a similar set of calculations for sockeye, pink, chum and coho losses which would have occurred during 1981 and 1982, assuming as a worst case there would be a post-project loss of 100 percent above Talkeetna. The potential losses estimated for chum salmon are the high- est of the four species included: $214,517 for 1981 and $467,568 for 1982. Similar estimates for coho, pink and sockeye can be seen in Table E.5.47. As noted in Chapter 3, the sockeye spawning in the sloughs seem to be wanderers and not a reproductively viable population. Chinook salmon were not included in estimates of potential losses since Susitna chinook are projected to receive very limited impacts from the project. It should also be noted that the calculations are based upon a catch-to-escapement ratio of 2. 2:1 for coho, chum, and sockeye; and 3.8:1 for pinks. Case 2 provides a second estimate of potential losses to the Cook Inlet commercial fishery. The number of spawning sal- mon which utilize the slough habitat from Talkeetna to Devil Canyon are estimated in Section 2 of Chapter 3. Assuming a post-project total loss of production from this habitat, the potential 1 asses to the commercial fishery were estimated for 1981 and 1982. These estimates for Case 2 are shown in Table.E.5.48, and are considerably smaller than the poten- tial losses from Case 1. If the biological impacts repre- sented by Case 2 are the more accurate estimates, then the potential losses to the commercial fishery shown in Table E.5.48 would provide the better estimate. The two estimates, provided in Cases 1 and 2, should be in- terpreted as a range of potential impacts to the commercial fishery from dam construction. Non-Commercial Use -The Sport Fishery Statewide sport harvest data indicate that potential impacts to the sport fishery which would occur if the Susitna dams were constructed would be in three main areas. One area would be the impoundment area of the proposed dams and the areas downstream. A second area of potential impact would be upstream from the impoundment areas in the mainstream Susitna and possibly into some of the tributaries such as the Lake Louise-Lake Susitna-Tyone Lake areas. The third E-5-99 3.7-Impacts on Fish and Wildlife User Groups would consist of areas which could be reached from the access road, between the Denali Highway and the Watana site. The biological impact areas and quantified levels of impact to resident and migratory fishery resources that would result from the Susitna dams construction have not been determined for all of these areas. Data on specific angler use of the Susitna and tributaries above the Talkeetna confluence are virtually nonexistent. There are, however, data describing use patterns on the lower Susitna and main tributaries which will be presented in summary. The East Susitna Drainage-West Cook Inlet-West Susitna Drainage areas consists of some of the major sport fishing areas of the state. These include the Deshka River, Alex- ander Creek, Talachulitna River, Willow Creek, Montana Creek, Clear Creek, Sheep Creek, and others. In these areas, there were over 97,000 angler days fished in 1981 ( Mi 11 s 1981) • A summary of the sport fish catch by major species and total number of angler days expended in the lower Susitna drainage is shown in Table E.5.48. Many of the areas included in this table may be out of the area of impact from the Susitna dams, but they do indicate levels of angler activity. Guiding is a support service to sport fishing. There are at least two guide businesses which operate in the mainstream Susitna upriver from the Talkeetna confluence to the proposed damsites. They guide fishermen to areas such as Portage Creek and some of the Slough areas of the Susitna River. The two businesses which have been identified are Mahays Riverboat Service and the Ta 1 keetna Riverboat Service, both operating out of Talkeetna. To the knowledge of the study team, there are no Native-owned fish guiding service businesses currently operating in the impact area. {d) Non-Commercial Use -Subsistence Fishing The subsistence catch of fish produced by the Susitna system discussed in this section refers only to the catch from Cook Inlet. The Cook Inlet subsistence catch has been recorded for several years by the Alaska Department of Fish and Game. Other personal use fishing does occur in the Susitna River system, but data are not avai 1 able with which to evaluate the magnitude of the catch of that fishery. Subsistence fishing within the Susitna Basin is not a recognized fishery by ADF&G. E-5-100 - - - - - - - - - ,... - - - - 3.7-Impacts on Fish and Wildlife User Groups As was the case for the commercia 1 catch, the subsistence catch of sa 1 mon in Cook In 1 et is on mixed stocks. There- fore, the entire subsistence catch cannot be attributed to Susitna-produced fish. However, since these are the only data available to show subsistence use patterns, they are presented here. The subsistence catch of salmon in Cook Inlet, by species and year for the period 1969 to 1981, is shown in Table E.5.49. During this period, the number of permits increased from 330 to 1178, with most of the increase occurring fran 1979 to 1981. It should be noted that the change in numbers of permits over this period is due, at least in part, to regulatory changes. The catch of salmon has followed the same pattern as the number of permits, increasing rapidly after 1978 to the largest catch in 1980 of 16,973. Overall, sockeye and coho contribute most to the total catch. In 1980 and 1981, however, the chinook catch was very signifi- cant, with over 2000 fish taken each year, representing 13 to 14 percent of the total catch (ADF&G 1982c). Although the residents of English Bay, Port Grahm and Tyonek qualify for subsistence permits, to date, the community of Tyonek has accounted for most of the subsistence catch in Cook Inlet. Since that community is predominantly Native, most of the catch is by Native subsistence fishermen. The value of the Cook Inlet subsistence catch is unknown. The value of the subsistence catch as a food source to rural Alaskans could perhaps be determined using a shadow price. The ex-vessel price of the salmon, a valuation sometimes used for subsistence, is not an appropriate measure since it can be assumed that subsistence fish are for consumption as food. Ex-vessel prices paid for salmon are for a production input to a commercial fish processing business. A more appropriate measure of value for subsistence fish as food to rural Alaskans would be retail cost of salmon delivered to the point of subsistence capture, or the price of an equally desirable, alternative food source. There may also be so- cial, cultural or religious values associated with the cap- ture, preparation and use of salmon. If this is the case, then these additional factors are also important and should be considered in the determination of the value of the sub- sistence catch. 3.7.2-Game Chapter 3 of Exhibit E contains estimates of impacts of the Susitna project on the game animals found in the area. These impacts. especially with mitigation, are small. However. changes in the distribution of important species like caribou and moose E-5-101 3.7-Impacts on Fish and Wildlife User Groups are expected to result in impacts to some of the users of these resources. In addition, increased access is likely to lead to competition of the resources between current and new users. Discussion of the impacts on game users requires that the user groups be identified first. Two major groups are involved and include commercial and non-commercial users. For each group of users, the use patterns are described. An examination of the probable interface of the project conditions and existing use patterns is presented in order to identify probable types of project impacts on these users. The identified types of impact are then discussed in the context of the users• ability to adjust to new conditions, including using alternative geographic areas or engaging in other activities. Due to inadequate data, the discussion is necessarily qualitative and is intended to provide a basis for future monitoring of the identified impact types. (a) Commercial Users There is no direct commercial exploitation of big game. Most game animals are hunted for recreation, trophies, and food, rather than for commercial purposes. In the following discussion, a description of indirect commercial use by various secondary industries that to some degree depend on big game resources is presented. (i) Guides and Guide Services Guiding is a common part of hunting in Alaska. Non- residents have been required to hire guides if they are hunting certain species. Recent legislation makes it mandatory for nonresidents to use guides for all species in the future. Since the services offered by some guides cover the whole spectrum of the hunter support activities, this section describes the support industry as a whole. Guides who make at least part of their annual income from big game hunting activity may be divided into three groups: assistant guides, registered guides, and master guides. Assistant guides cannot execute contracts with clients, but must work for a regis- tered guide. Registered guides are full licensed operators and may own exclusive guide areas or operate in joint areas with other guides. Exclusive guide areas are E-5-102 - - - ~I - - - - - - - - - - - 3.7-Impacts on Fish and Wildlife User Groups recognized as assets and may be transferred for a fee from one guide to another as long as the transfer is recorded at the Game Licensing and Control Board. A master guide is a registered guide who has been in business for a considerable time and is nominated by two of his contemporaries. In 1980, there were 194 different guides eligible to operate in Unit 13, where the proposed project is 1 ocated. Only seven of these were registered as operating only in this unit. Statewide, there were about 340 guides. Each guide may be 1 i censed to operate in three different units; therefore, many have alternative areas for business. Some can still operate in all the state's 26 units, if they were licensed to do so before the new regulation came into effect. · Services offered by guides and service charges vary from guide to guide. In some cases, in addition to guiding, a full range of services may include, but not be limited to: -Transportation; -Lodging; -Cooks; -Boat Transportation; and -Camping equipment. To provide this range of services, considerable investment is required. Guiding businesses are expected to be indirectly im- pacted. If the project reduces the number of avai 1- able harvestable animals, it is conceivable that this would reduce hunting opportunities. Regulations, such as permit hunts that limit the number of hunters for a given season, could result. In areas where the permit hunt systems already exist, the number of available permits may be reduced. This scenario translates into reduced business volume for the guid- ing industry. Furthermore, if increased access leads to reduction in the remote nature of the area, guid- ing in the area would be impacted. Access related impacts would be possible, even if the number of ani- mals to be unaffected by the project. Impacts would be more pronounced if guides were unable to compen- sate for reduced business volume by raising price or E-5-103 3.7-Impacts on Fish and Wildlife User Groups moving to substitute hunting areas. As discussed in Section 3.5, alternative areas exist but it is not known what the impact of intensified activity would be in those areas. Possible impacts depends at least in part on: (1) the reduction in animal populations; {2} changes in hunting regulations in response to reduced animal populations; (3) the relationship of animal abundance to hunting quality; {4) increased access that reduces the remote nature of the area; and {5) changes in animal population distribution. The first of these is expected to be small, since no net losses are expected for the important species of moose and cari- bou, especially if mitigation measures are implemen- ted (see Section 4 of Chapter 3}. Therefore, any changes in regulations are more likely as a result of increased access and animal population distr·ibution rather than due to reduction in total abundance. The quality of hunting may change in specific areas due to the redistribution of animals. This could impact the guiding industy if no alternative areas are avail ab 1 e. Inc rea sed access, however, wi 11 pro- bably be the more likely cause of impact to the guid- ing industry in the region by changing the remote nature of the area. Increased access during con- struction, coupled with noise and other construction- related disturbances, may result in a need for ad- justment on the part of those guides that currently use the area. It is not known whether, instead of serving rela- tively few high paying clients who place a high value on the wilderness experience, the guides would serve a higher volume of clientele that would pay less on a per capita basis. If such an adjustment is possible, the guiding industry may be able to avoid adverse impacts. Determination of the impact of reduction in remote- ness will require monitoring. Increased acces may mean that hunters who would otherwise need guides would no longer require this service in the area. According to state 1 aw, all nonresidents must use guides. This part of the new market would, there- fore, not be affected except for the hunter•s atti- tude toward loss of remoteness. These attitudes will E-5-104 - - - - - - - 3.7-Impacts on Fish and Wildlife User Groups ( i i ) need to be monitored as construction begins. User interviews could be conducted to make this determina- tion. Lodge Operators In Terrestrial Environmental Specialists (1982) three different lodges in the project area were identified. The include the Stephan Lake Lodge, the High Lake Lodge, and the Tsusena Lake Lodge. All are currently ' well maintained and are used for private and guided fishing and hunting as well as a research base for the Susitna project. The lodge on Tsusena Lake is now used by the owners for private hunting, fishing and recreation. The High Lake Lodge was 1 eased to Acres American Incor- porated during the past two summers for work on the Susitna Hydro project studies. The Stephan Lake Lodge, operated commercially as a base for guided hunting and fishing, has 10 struc- tures. The current operator also maintains seven cabins which are used as outreach bases for hunting and fishing in the more remote areas. The Lodge offers full services, including guided hunting and fishing, and handles six to eight hunters and about 30 fishing recreationists each year (Bailey 1982, Personal Communication). For the most part, the services offered are packaged deals. These include: -Air transporation to and from the lodge and hunting grounds; -Lodging during the hunt. The lodge itself is used and so are the cabins. When necessary, tent camps are set up if hunting is to be done in areas removed from the lodge and the cabin locations; and -Guided hunting and fishing. For hunting, available species include bear, moose, and sheep. This par- ticular operation does not provide guided hunting for caribou or goat. E-5-105 3.7-Impacts on Fish and Wildlife User Groups Guiding charges by this operation are as follows: A bear hunt typically costs $5000, a moose hunt $4000, a combination hunt for moose and bear, $7500. In addition to the lodges directly in the project area, there are several other lodges on the highway system between Anchorage and Fairbanks and between Paxson and Cantwell which cater to visitors to the Susitna Basin. Listed below are 18 1odges which are located between Wasilla and Healy on the Parks Highway and between Paxson and Cantwell on the Denali Highway. Location Wasilla to Houston Klondike Inn Will ow to Healy Pioneer Lodge Sheep Creek Lodge Montana Creek Lodge Big Su Lodge Talkeetna Roadhouse Swiss Alaska Inn Chulitna River Lodge Jack River Inn Jere-A-Tad Lodge North Face Lodge Healy Roadhouse Paxson to Cantwell Paxson Lodge Tangle River Inn Southeast Susitna Lodge Susitna Lodge currently 1 eased by Denali Mining Co. Gracious House Adventures Unlimited E-5-106 Comment Talkeetna vicinity Talkeetna vicinity Talkeetna vicinity In Cantwell North of Cantwell In Healy In Paxson Not open to public, Guided and unguided hunting, cabins and bunkhouse Near Butte Lake - - - - .-e.l - - - - ,,.,. .... - 3.7-Impacts on Fish and Wildlife User Groups {b) The impact of the proposed project on lodge operators would be indirect. None of the lodges identified are expected to be physically affected by the presence of the project. However, it is possible that some of the grounds used for camping will be inundated. Adjustment to this type of impact may take the form of utilizing alternative areas and providing other activities. The level of economic impact may depend on -whether these lodges can serve a different type of clientele. Instead of foreign clients who seek wilderness hunting and fishing experiences, the 1 odges may cater to more in-state residents as the area becomes more accessible. Future service may be provided to photographers and other non-consumptive users staying for fewer days at a time, in place of hunters who may stay for weeks at a t·ime. By catering to more people and charging less instead of serving fewer wilderness-seeking clients at relatively high prices, the lodges may avoid losing income. In this respect, lodge operations are different from the guiding businesses. Guiding, by its nature, tends to depend on availablility of areas that are unfamiliar to the general public, while lodges, for the most part, care about the occupancy. Lodge businesses, therefore, are unlikely to suffer due to increased access, but may instead benefit from the influx of more people. Thus, through changes in their modes of operation, the lodge operators might be able to successfully adjust to changing condi- tions. Non-Commercial Use of Game Resources (i) Management and Regulations To provide an overview of the various responsibil- ities for the management of game resources in Alaska, the following brief narrative is given. The Board of Game has the overall mandate to create all the regulations governing the taking of game. The regulations may be developed for various pur- poses. Some of the regulations now in effect relate to open and closed seasons and areas, the setting of quotas for harvest, and designation of management areas. Figure E.5.7 illustrates the location of the Game Management Units (GMUs). The proposed location of the Susitna Project is in GMU 13 (see Figure E.5.8 E-5-107 3.7-Impacts on Fish and Wildlife User Groups for details). The Board also promotes research and the training of people for game management. To assist the Board in the performance of its duties, advisory committees may be established in various parts of the state with powers to hold public meetings and to establish emergency closures of hunting seasons when necessary. The Commissioner of Fish and Game, through the Division of Game, fulfills his duties to 11 ••• manage, maintain, improve, and extend the game resources of the state. 11 (Alaska Statute Undated). The Division meets this responsibility in various ways, including assessing game populations, identify- ing and protecting important habitats, and preparing reports for the public and to inform the Board. This Division may recommend regulations to the Board of Game. Through cooperative efforts with the Division of Wildlife Protection, the Division of Game also participates in the enforcement of hunting regula- tions. The public can participate in many ways. Through the election of public officials, the public determines the overall legislation regarding the management of game. The public can also petition the Board of Game to influence the formation of regulations. -The Hunter Big game hunters in Alaska may be classified into two groups: recreation a 1 hunters and subsistence hunters. Recreational hunters, including trophy seekers, may be Alaska residents, other citizens of the U.S., or foreigners. The second group is made up of exclusively Alaska residents who under sub- sistence criteria have qualified to use game resources. The following discussion focusses on these two groups. Researchers, for experimental purposes, take game animals. However, because this use constitutes small removals, the project is not expected to affect research users. It may be pointed out that, except for the use of caribou, harvest statistics do not distinguish between the types of use. For this reason, subsis- tence use of game resources in the project area has not been determined. E-5-108 - - 0\, - - - - - - ,.. ... r - -' 3.7-Impacts on Fish and Wildlife User Groups Resident hunters hunt for trophy and meat; nonresidents and foreigners primarily for trophies. Subsistence users have the main goal of bringing home food meat. This includes the objectives of (1) obtaining high quality goods at a relatively 1 ow price; (2) fulfilling certain cultural traditions and obligations to their community or family; and others. Currently, subsistence use has priority over other uses with the provision that it shall not interfere with resource conservation efforts. The issue of subsistence use is a controversi a 1 one in Alaska, and a proposal to eliminate subsistence priorities appeared on the ballot in 1982 and was defeated. The extent of subsistence utilization of the resources in the project area is not known. How- ever, some idea of the significance of subsistence use of caribdu may be gained from examination of the number of hunting permits that are reserved for this purpose. During the 1981-82 hunting season, 53 permits out of a tot a 1 of 1600 were issued to subsistence users. Of the 53, 36 had successful hunts in which caribou were taken. Examination of the residence status of all qualifiers who received these permits reveals that less than 15 resided in the communities of Cantwell, Talkeetna, and Trapper Creek. Of the 1750 drawings permits for caribou hunting in GMUs 13 and 14 for the 1982-83 season, 450 were reserved for subsistence. This consti- tutes a large increase in the allocation of subsis- tence permits. The results of the season•s success will not be know until later this year or some time in 1984. (ii) Resources and Use Patterns The following discussion deals with all noncommercial use of game resources. This approach is necessary because the harvest statistics do not distinguish between recreational use and subsistence use. The big game resources identified as having the most potential to be impacted include caribou, moose, black and brown bear, Dall sheep, wolf, and wolver- ine. The following section is devoted to describing the use patterns relating to several of these E-5-109 3.7-Impacts on Fish and Wildlife User Groups resources. It is difficult to assess the economic importance of individual species because of the com- plicated nature of the regulations. Available infor- mation from a few of the guides in the area shows the relative fees charged for the various species. How- ever, there is no information on the business volume nor the percentage of this volume that is represented by each species. Moreover, hunts are sometimes con- ducted as combination hunts and charges made on that basis. The relative importance of the project area in providing hunting and guiding opportunities may be inferred from examination of harvest from GMU 13 relative to statewide harvest. In 1978-79, harvests from this unit represented the following proportions of statewide harvest: Moose 14.5% Caribou 9.0% Wolf 9.0% Brown bear 8.0% Black bear 5.0% Some detailed information available regarding cari~ou and moose is presented bel ow. Further analysis of the other species could be provided at a later date if more detailed statistics are received from other contractors. -Caribou The Nelchina herd is highly migratory. It is known to have utilized the Nelchina Basin ranging from the Wrangell and Mentasta Mountains in the east through the Lake Louise flats to Talkeetna Moun- tains and Chunilna Hills in the west (see Figure E.5.8). For purposes of discussing possible impacts of the project, data on this herd as a whole will be treated as being relevant. However, special attention could be given at a later date to Game Management Subunits 13A, 13B, 13E, 14A, 16A and 16B. Subunit 13E contains most of the proposed impoundment area while 13A and 13B are adjacent to the area. Areas 14A, 14B, 16A and 16B are to the southwest, but nevertheless constitute areas which in the past have been used by the herd. E-5-110 110'!'; - - .... 3.7-Impacts on Fish and Wildlife User Groups • Resource Status Population estimates over the past 20 years show that the herd numbers were greatest in the early 1960s. The 1962 population estimate was recorded at some 71,000 animals. The herd declined to a recorded low of 7690 animals in 1973; since that time, the herd has partially recovered. The cur- rent ADF&G management plan calls for maintenance of the herd at about 20,000 adults. The popula- tion levels of the 1950s and 1960s are thought to have been excessive and to have overutilized the habitat • • The Experience Sought and Hunter Residence Hunting for caribou provides both recreation and food meat. The Nelchina herd is conveniently located near the largest population concentration in the state. Accardi ngly, residents of Anchor- age and Fairbanks represent a major proportin of the total number of people who hunt this herd • • Transporation To and From Hunting Grounds Acces to the hunting areas is by various means. However, the three most frequently reported transport means are air transportation, off-road vehicles (ORVs), and a combination of highway and foot access. Statistics for the period 1973-74 to 1980, in which hunters 1 isted the "primary" method of transportation to the hunting areas, show an evolutin of access means preference. In th,e very early 1970s, highway vehicles were the most frequently reported means of access. This was fall owed closely by ORV transport and air transportation. Later, ORVs took over the lead and air transport followed. More recently, air transport has been most frequently reported, while ORVs and highway vehicles follow. The proposed Denali access road is likely to alter the distribution of harvest if it is opened to the public. The Susitna Nenana subherd would be impacted. Thus, localized increases in hunt- ; ng pressure on some subherds are possible. The road has the potential to isolate a range that could support up to 10 percent of the Ne 1 china E-5-111 3.7-Impacts on Fish and Wildlife User Groups herd. This may result in 1ess caribou for hunters in the mountains between the Parks High- way and the access road, north of the Susinta River. However, the total harvest in GMU 13 is not 1 ikely to change because of the project, as long as the current permit hunt system remains in effect • • Hunting Pressure Hunter participation in harvest of the Nelchina herd has historically been greater than that of recent years. The drop in participation from historic 1evels has not been voluntary, but has been accomplished by regulatory reform. The 1 imited resource size and the carrying capacity of the range together with increasing demand to hunt in the area led to management measures that reduced and 1 imited hunter part ici pat ion. By 1980, participation as measured by numbers of hunters had dropped to under 30 percent of the 1970-71 level. In 1980, an estimated 982 hunters, compared to 3710 in 1970-71, were involved in hunting for Nelchina caribou. The reduction in total hunting pressure is even greater than indicated by this cornpari son if one considers that in some areas of GMU 13 the bag 1 imit is currently one caribou, whereas in the early 1970s and before, some hunters took as many as three animals during each regulatory year. Current levels of hunting pressure are controlled by use of pennits. The number of permits is determined, at least in part, by the estimated caribou population and management objectives for maintaining a certain level of population size. The current population size of about 20,000 is well below peak historic levels • • Supply and Demand for Hunting Opportunity There has been a widening gap between the supp1y of drawing permits issued and the total number of applicants for this hunting opportunity. As shown below, the number of applicants for these permits doubled between 1978 and 1979 and contin- ued to grow during the following year, while the number of available permits grew from 1000 to 1300 over the same period. Demand for hunting opportunity outstripped the supply by a factor of E-5-112 - - - - - .... - 3.7-Impacts on Fish and Wildlife User Groups 3 to 1 in 1978 and 5 to 1 in 1980. It is possible that the number of applicants is a low estimate of demand. The number applying waul d probably grow faster if the number of available permits was higher. Knowledge that the prob- ability of obtaining a permit is low may be stop- ping some would-be applicants. Controlled hunting pressure in the form of a 1 imited number of hunters each year and a bag limit, have apparently helped the recovery of the resource while at the same time ensuring a steady success rate for individual hunters. • Success Rate Success rate, as measured by the reported number of animals taken per participating hunter, fluct- uated rather widely during the period from 1970-71 to 1980. In the 1970-71 season a total of some 3710 hunters took 3790 animals; the success rate was 1.02 animals per hunter. As many as 1415 hunters were unsuccessful that year. This apparent contradiction is explained by the fact that some hunters took as many as three ani- mals each. In 1973, the rate dropped to 32 per- cent, indicating one kill for every 3 hunters. Success, however, has improved and stayed above 60 percent since the institution of permit hunts in 1977. The success rate was approximately 63 percent in 1980. Through limits on the number of hunters, the institution of permit hunts is (at least in part) responsible for stabi-lization of the success rates. The other factor affecting success rates may have been increased herd num- bers which themselves benefited from the permit hunt system. However, since hunting pressure has been controlled through different regulatory regimes over the years, success rates do not indicate the relative quality of hunting. E-5-113 3.7-Impacts on Fish and Wildlife User Groups -Moose For purposes of impact analysis, moose populations in the Susitna River Basin have been divided into two groups and studied as upstream and downstream moose. Big game studies conducted by ADF&G re- vealed that upstream moose consist of 13 subpopula- t ions that conduct a significant amount of their year-ro'und activities in and a round the proposed impoundment a rea. They are associated with the numerous creeks and rivers that are tributaries and subtributaries of the Susitna River {ADF&G 1982d). Downstream moose include those subpopulations that have their home ranges to the south of the proposed Devil Canyon damsi te. They traverse areas to the north and south of Talkeetna, utilizing both sides (east and west) of the Susitna. These areas con- stitute one of the most important wintering habi- tats for moose in the state {ADF&G 1982e). • Resource Status Population characteristics of moose in the study area are discussed in Section 4.2.1 of Chapter 3. Moose populations were on the increase during the 1950s in GMU 13. Throughout the 1960s and the first half of the 1970s, moose populations de- clined because of poor winter conditions. Since 1975, moose populations appear to have stabi- 1 ized. During the fall of 1980, ADF&G sampled portions of the study area in GMU 13 and made a gross estimate of 4027 animals as the population of upstream moose in parts of subunits 13A, 13B, and 13E. Figure E.5.9 shows the study area uti- lized in these and prior studies. However, the 1980 study concentrated most of the survey effort in count areas (CA) 6, 7, and 14 (see Figure E.5.10). Data for moose inCA 7 and CA 14 his- torically exhibited sex and age composition characteristics similar to those of moose in the whole of GMU 13. Both the upstream and down- stream moose contribute to guided and unguided hunting for recreation, antler trophies, and meat • • Experience Sought and Hunter Residency Most nonresidents take moose for antler trophies, while residents take moose for meat in addition to the recreation activity involved. E-5-114 -i - - - - - - """' I' i r 3.7-Impacts on Fish and Wildlife User Groups Resident hunters who seek moose in GMU 13 are most frequently residents of Anchorage, Fairbanks, Palmer and Whittier. The rank order of participation in GMU 14 is Anchorage, Palmer, Wasilla, Whittier and others. Anchorage, Whittier, Fairbanks and Eagle River residents are prominent in moose hunting in GMU 16. In each case, Anchorage resident account for 50 percent or more of total resident participation • • Transportation To and From Hunting Grounds The most. frequently used transport means for moose hunters in GMU 13 are: highway vehicle, off-road vehicles, air transport and boat. Fre- quently, these methods are used in combination with one another and with others such as snow machines. Transport data used for this discus- sion are derived from harvest ticket reports, which allow for reporting a combination of travel means. The use of highway vehicles is the most common method of transport to the general area. Within the area, however, other forms are more common • • Hunting Pressure Hunting pressure in terms of number of hunters participating in GMU 13 has varied over the past 12 years and so has the success rate. In 1971, 4881 hunters participated to take a total of 1814 moose for a success rate of 37 percent. The cor- responding activity for 1981 was 3105 hunters who experienced a success rate of 25.6 percent. Table E.5.50 contains hunting pressure and total harvest of moose in GMU 13 since 1970. Hunting pressure is controlled by regulation in various ways. At least three basin methods are available and are used alone or in combination to achieve management objectives in specific situa- tions. As contained in the Alaska hunting regu- 1 at ions pamphlet number 23, these methods were applied with varying intensity in GMUs 13, 14, and 16 and elsewhere. These methods are: (1) 1 imit i ng the season; (2) harvest quota (usually E-5-115 3.7-Impacts on Fish and Wildlife User Groups optional use of permits); and (3) direct limitations on effort (optional). Hunting seasons and other regulations are set and supervised by the Board of Game and its advisory committees; this is done for each GMU, subunit, or for specific areas within a subunit. The Game Division of ADF&G advises the board and partici- pates in the enforcement of regulations. Harvest quotas are set directly by specifying that only a certain number of animals may be taken during a given season. Direct effort limitations are also applied; this is done mostly by issuing a limited number of hunting permits, which are either competed for (drawing permits) or are given out on a first- come, first-served basis (registration permits). For the 1982-83 moose hunting season, a total of 655 permits (of which 65 were registration per- mits) were planned in a total of six subunits or areas in GMU 14. There were 180 permits for two locations in GMU 16 of which 30 were of the reg- istration type. The method of direct effort 1 imitation was not used in GMU 13. Instead, moose size limitations were used; only bulls with an antler spread of at least 36 inches (90 em) could be harvested. Regardless of the method used, only one animal was allowed per hunter. This is an indirect way of limiting total harvest and effective hunting effort. Since 1972, various regulations were used in areas of GMU 13 which have helped to radically reduce the total harvest. The "bulls only" rule combined with shorter harvest seasons and a bag limit of one moose have been responsible for the decline in harvest. As can be seen in Table E. 5. 51, the total number of hunters has itself stayed well o'ver 2200, while total harvest fell from 1814 in 1971 to 712 in 1972 and has since remained below 900 each year • • Success Rate The reported success rate of hunters has fluctu- ated between 19 percent and 36 percent s i nee 1972. The average success rate from 1972 through 1981 was 26.8 percent and ranged from a low of 19 E-5-116 ~I - - - - - - - .... .... - .... 3.7-Impacts on Fish and Wildlife User Groups percent in 1980 to a high of 36 percent in 1979. The 1981 success rate was, therefore, above aver- age for the past 10 years. It is however, in contrast to the rates depicted during the 1 ate 1960s, when success was yenerally above 30 per- cent. In 1960, the success rate approached 50 percent. Changes in moose populations and regu- lations which limit the number of hunters or the season are important factors in the determination of success rates. Since these factors have changed over the years, the success rates do not readily indicate relative hunting quality. -Importance of Regulations In addition to changes in recreational quality which might lead recreationists to choose other areas, the project could also prompt stricter regu- lations and further reduce opportunities to hunt in the area. For some species, the regulations are already very strict compared to years past. The project may lead to further tightening of current regulations. Regulations on the hunting of moose (whose numbers in the region have been increasing) may be relaxed in the near future, but if these prove unsatisfactory and mitigation measures do not compensate for moose losses in the impoundment area, further restrictions may be required. Some idea of the current supply of hunting opportu- nity in the project area may be gained by examining the hunting regulations pertaining to GMUs 13, 14, and 16. For example, there are more opportunities to hunt for black bear than brown bear •• This is reflected in the per hunter bag 1 imit of three b 1 ack bears each year compared to one brown bear every four years. Similarly, whereas there is no bag limit for wolf in GMU 13 nor for wolverine in GMUs 13 and 14, there are rather stringent rules on the hunting of caribou, moose, and Dall sheep for the 1982-83 hunting season. This pattern reflects both the condition of the resource and the regula- tory philosophy. If the expected inundation of black bear habitat leads to significant reduction in harvestable numbers, changes in regulations aimed at protecting the remaining population may be instituted. If E-5-117 3.7-Impacts on Fish and Wildlife User Groups this happens, the opportunity to hunt for black bear may no longer be as 1 iberal. Thus, the impacts of the project on the hunter and on current 1 evel s of use could occur by reducing the quality of hunting and through changes in regulations aimed at protecting populations of individual species. -Impacts on the Hunter There are several factors that influence the number of hunters who will visit any given site. One of the most important is the quality of hunting to be expected at the site. As stated above, the regula- tory regime governing the taking of game is also important. Both of these factors could be affected by changes in animal populations. The impacts of the Susitna project on the hunter are therefore expected to stem from both alterations in the quality of available sites and regulator limita- tions on participation. The hunter who prefers remote areas may also be impacted by increased access that will be created by the presence of the project. The access issue is complication by consi deration of land ownership. Ownership and its implications for access rights to hunting sites may make discus- sion of project impacts on the hunter a secondary issue. The future structure of 1 and ownership and stewardship in the project area may play a more significant role in determining access to hunting areas than wi 11 the presence of the project. Upon permanent conveyance of se 1 ected Native 1 andhol d- ings, these lands wi11 become private property. It is difficult to say how these lands would then be used. 3.7.3-Furbearers The major furbearer species in the impact area include lynx, beaver, mink, muskrat, pine marten, red fox, river otters, short-tail weasels (ermine), and least weasels. Wolves and wolverine are also often trapped for their fur, but for purposes of this study these species have been classified as game. Trapping, and some hunting, of furbearers for the purpose of selling pelts is the major human use of these species. While some trapping is done on a part-time basis by individuals who have recreational cabins, it is difficult to distinguish between \ E-5-118 ~' - - - - .... .... - 3.7-Impacts on Fish and Wildlife User Groups commercial· and noncommercial trapping activity, s·ince these individuals sometimes keep the furs for their own use and sometimes sell them to supplement their ·income. No statistics are kept which distinguish between commerical and noncommerical trapping activity. As a result, this discussion will concentrate on the trapper group as a whole. The commercial trapping of specific species increases and decreases in cycles, in accordance with the abundance of the species and, to some extent, the price of pelts. Trapping intensity is also affected by the amount of access that exists in an area. Access can be provided by trails and clearings as well as by roads • Available data on the activity of trappers operating in the impact area and the size of harvests are of 1 imited useful ness because of several factors explained below. Thus, this section will focus on a general description of the trappers operating in the vicinity of the project and the economic value of the species they harvest. In general, it is expected that the major impact on trapping caul d be an increase in access to a remote area that is not currently heavily trapped (trappers could use the access road or the cleared right-of-ways of the transmission lines to gain access to the area upon completion of the project). This is expected to result in an increase in the number of trappers, though it will not necessarily be a beneficial effect for the trappers who are currently operating in the middle and upper Sus itna Basin. The benefits of increased access for trappers could be moderated or negated by the following possible developments: -As the regional corporations Ahtna, Inc. and Cook Inlet Region Inc., take title to the lands they have selected in and around the project area, much of the 1 and on which trapping occurs will become private land. These private landholders may very well restrict trappers from operating on their 1 and, irrespective of the project. -The state can take steps to either restrict pub 1 ic use of the road to the dam sites, or to restrict project workers and related users of the road from engaging in trapping. There may also be regulation of the transmission l·ines to ensure that other users of these relatively clear areas are discouraged. E-5-119 3.7-Impacts on Fish and Wildlife User Groups (a) Data Limitations The impact area of the project as it relates to game and furbearers (see Chapter 3) crosses the boundaries of several Game Management Units, as defined by the Alaska Department of Fish and Game. Thus, it is difficult to relate estimates of harvests in particular GMUs with harvests in the impact area. Furthermore, it is difficult to determine harvests of furbearers within a particular GI11U from available statis- tics, due to the types of data collected and the difficulty of obtaining data by the origin of the fur. Records are kept by the state on trapper exports of furs, dealer purchases of furs, and dealer exports. Table E.5.51 displays data on trapper exports and dealer purchases, by species, for 1977 through 1980. In addition, sealing reports, which include all pelts obtained from a particular locale, are compiled for three furbearer species: lynx, river otter and beaver. It is believed that these data underestimate actual harvests in GMU 13 to such a degree that the statistics are not use- ful in this context, for severa 1 reasons. First, the basis for the first three types of records is the residence of the individual trapper or dealer reporting, not the actual origin of the furs. In the case of GMU 13, many of the trappers who operate there are actually residents of other areas such as Anchorage and the surrounding suburbs. The pelts that they obtain are thus not included in the statis- tics on GMU 13. In addition, export data are likely to underestimate actua 1 harvests s i gni fi cantly because a cer- tain percentage of pelts are used in-state or sold to tourists in the form of garments and thus are not included in the statistics. (b) Trapping Activity In general, it appears that there is not currently a 1 arge number of trappers operating in the areas in which furbearer populations are expected to be affected. This seems to be due to the relative inaccessibility of the area. The 1980-1981 trapper questionnaire prepared by the Alaska Department of Fish and Game estimated that five individuals trapped in the Cantwell-Denali area and six trappers oper- ated around Talkeetna-Petersville (this includes an area far 1 arger than the impact area). Approximately 35 percent of the trappers responding to the overall survey (which in- cluded all Game Management Units in the south-central E-5-120 - - - ~' .... - - - .... II"" - - 3.7-Impacts on Fish and Wildlife User Groups region) indicated that they had not trapped during the 1980-81 season, and many of these indicated they had not done so because of the mild winter and lack of snow (ADF&G 1981). Oral interviews with residents of the local impact area, as part of the land use portion of this study, indica- ted that early trappers were also few in number but covered far more extensive areas in their trapping. In the 1940s and 1950s, many long-time trappers switched over to the more lucrative activity of guiding big game hunts (Jubenville 1981). It is estimated that there are a large number of residents of the local impact area who do some trapping on a part-time basis and keep the pelts for their own use or sell a few to supplement their income in the winter months. There are no data available on the size of this user group; however, very few of these residents trap in the areas around the project site in which furbearer habitat wi 11 be affected. Land use investigations of the project area showed that approximately six to eight part-time trappers worked out of cabins along Clarence Lake, Deadman Lake, Portage Creek, Indian River, and some other large lakes in the middle Susitna Basin in 1981-1982. Winter trapping currently is focused in areas near Stephan Lake, Tsusena Creek, and Clarence Lake. Trap lines in the south-central district average 25 miles (41 km) in length, and are ususally travelled by sno\'tffiobile. There are also some traps set by trappers working out of aircraft in the eastern portions of the Susitna valley. These have become economically feas i b 1 e as a result of the va 1 ue of lynx, wolves, wolverine and other high-priced pelts. (c) Aquatic Species (i) Baseline Beaver and muskrat are present in some tributaries and lakes in the middle basin with beaver being in- creasingly more abundant downstream from Devil Canyon. No beaver are known to live in the Watana impoundment area, nor in the portion of the Susitna River between Watana and Devi 1 Canyon. The beaver population on the Susitna River between Portage Creek and Ta 1 keetna is estimated at 70. There are a 1 so approximately 65 beaver along Deadman Creek, which is located near the proposed access road from the Denali highway to the Watana site. E-5-121 3.7-Impacts on Fish and Wildlife User Groups Muskrat pushups were seen at 27 of the 103 lakes sur- v~yed in the middle basin (see Chapter 3). No sign of muskrat has been observed on the Susitna River between Devil Canyon and Talkeetna by the project team. Values for beaver pelts in 1982 were in the range of $10-$55. Muskrat pelts were valued at between $1.00 and $4.50 for pelts of animals that were trapped (H.E. Goldberg & Co. 1982), and between $.50 and $2.00 for slight shot pelts (at breakup, muskrats are harvested by hunters shooting from boats). Histori- cally, beaver and muskrat in alpine areas, such as the project sites, are seldom pursued by trappers due to the relative cost of obtaining the furs versus their market value. Exports of beaver pelts are not currently high, ref1ecting the relatively low price. It is believed that trapping of beavers downstream from Devil Canyon has not declined as much as exports. Often, trappers continue to operate but delay sale of the pelts until the price rises (ADF&G 1982f). The meat of both muskrat and beaver is used as well as the fur. The meat is used for bait, for dog food, and for human consumption. River otter and mink are common in areas of the middle basin of the Susitna, but trapping effort of these species has not been great. Otter are rel a- tively difficult to trap and the pelt values have not usually been high enough to justify the effort. Mink are abundant near some 1 akes and streams and all major tributary creeks; otters are common in the middle Susitna River basin. In this area, mink are only trapped incidentally while seeking other species. 1982 market prices per pelt ranged from $20.00 to $70.00 dollars for otter, and $10.00 to $50.00 for mink (H.E. Goldberg & Co. 1982). (i i) Impacts of the Project According to Section 4 of Chapter 3, approximately 75 beaver will be lost in the project area as a result of construction of the project. This will be par- tially offset by an increase in beaver populations downstream from Devil Canyon in sloughs not managed for salmon mitigation. Approximately 5 to 10 muskrat will be lost during construction of both projects. These declines are not expected to have a significant impact on trappers in the impact area. E-5-122 - - - - - - - - - - I""' - - - 3.7-Impacts on Fish and Wildlife User Groups From the perspective of economic impacts to commer- cial trappers, the increase in access into the middle basin is expected to more than compensate for the decline in animal population caused by the impound- ments and borrow sites. Downstream from Devil Canyon, the improved habitat for beaver resulting from the alteration in stream flows can be expected to result in more profitable trapping. Mink and otter will remain on lakes and ponds of the project area, but approximately 21 percent of river and stream habitat upstream from Gold Creek will be lost. Partially offsetting this, changes in water level and flow may improve habitat for mink and otter near Devil Canyon and downstream from it. The impacts on current trappers are not expected to be significant, owing to the small amount of trapping of these species in the project area. (d) Pine Marten (i) Baseline Pine marten (sable) are abundant in the vicinity of the proposed impoundments and have been historically important to trappers. It is estimated that there are 150 pine marten present in the area to be flooded by the Watana impoundment and 55 in the De vi 1 Canyon area. The value of marten from south-central and interior Alaska in 1982 ranged from $10 to $50 per pelt (H.E. Goldberg & Co. 1982). (ii) Impacts As discussed in Section 4 of Chapter 3, the impacts of the project on the pine marten are expected to be of the greatest magnitude of all furbearers because of this species high dependence upon forested habi- tats along the Susitna River and its tributaries and the inundation of habitat of that type by the impoundments. Habitat supporting up to 130 marten will be lost in the reservoirs and transmission corridor. This represents approximately 11.5 percent of the marten population in the middle Susitna basin. In those areas, the harvest of marten by trappers could decline accordingly. It is expected that the increased access to areas supporting marten will be beneficial to trappers, to the extent that this access is allowed. E-5-123 3.7-Impacts on Fish and Wildlife User Groups (e) Lynx Lynx have been scarce in south-central Alaska in recent years but there are indications that the population of this species will be increasing over the next couple of years. The population of lynx generally is prone to large fluctua- tions which are related to the size of the snowshoe hare population, a major food source. Lynx are very rare at present in the middle basin. The wholesale value of a lynx pelt in the spring of 1982 ranged from $100 to $500 depending upon the size and quality of the fur (H.E. Goldberg & Co. 1982). It is believed this high value has induced additional trapping pressure of lynx in the region and has increased the economic feasibility of running trap lines with aircraft (Gipson, September 1982). Until 1980, there were prohibitions against the export of lynx pelts that were part of an international effort to preserve this species. No such controls currently exist. The present scarcity and high value of lynx in south-central Alaska may be resulting in an underreporting of the harvest of this species by trappers due both to concerns about future reinstatement of controls and to sensitivity regard- ing their current income. (f) Fox The fox population in the impact area has been low since the 1970s. Project research indicated that only one trapper operated in the Tyone-Susitna and Devil Canyon areas in 1979-1980, and that in 1980-1981 and 1981-1982 there were two and three trappers, respectively, seeking fox pelts. Very few fox were actually taken in each of these years; thus, impacts of the project on trappers of fox would be minimal. (g) Secondary Industries There are several categories of businesses that are directly or indirectly affected by the fortunes of the trapping in- dustry in Alaska. These include enterprises which sell equipment, clothing and food to trappers; individuals who build and/or lease cabins; tanning establishments; fur dealers; and garment manufacturers, among others. Due to the relatively small percentage of Alaskan trappers who operate in the impact area (less than 0.5 percent), impacts of the project on these secondary industries are not expected to be significant. E-5-124 - - - - - - - - - - - - .... 4 -MITIGATION 4.1 -Introduction FERC regulations do not explicitly define mitigation policy or goals for socioeconomic impacts. Nevertheless, the responsibility exists to mitigate significant adverse impacts. This section describes measures to mitigate the direct impacts of the project. Section 4.2 discusses the background and approach to mitiga- tion and Section 4.3 is a summary of communities' attitudes toward changes. Section 4.4 presents a mitigation program based upon mitiga- tion objectives and community attitudes. 4.2 -Background and Approach The order of mitigation priorities presented by the Council on Environ- mental Quality include (1) avoiding impacts, (2) minimizing impacts, (3) rectifying impacts, (4) reducing or eliminating impacts over time, and (5) compensating for impacts. The objective of mitigation is to avoid or minimize impacts that are perceived to be costly, disruptive, or otherwise undesirable. Mitigation measures are proposed when the private sector (market mechanism), existing local and state government mechanisms, and social ass·imilation mechanisms (social service organi- zations, churches, etc.) do not have the capacity, capability or responsiblity to adequately mitigate adverse impacts. It is important to recognize that the labeling of a project-induced change as adverse is often a normative decision. Each individual within a community will have his own view about the impact of a change, and individuals change their view with the passage of time. Likewise, communities develop opinions regarding change, by concensus or other means, and this opinion, or label, is also subject to change with time. Section 4.3 discusses current attitudes in the affected communities • The process used to develop the mitigation program is: (1) To examine recent attitudes toward changes in potentially impacted communities; (2) To use recent attitudes to 1 abel changes as adverse or benefi- cial ; (3) To determine significant adverse changes; (4) To develop mitigation objectives; (5) To identify measures to avoid significant adverse project-induced impacts; E-5-125 4.3 -Attitudes Toward Changes (6) To identify measures to minimize, rectify, reduce or eliminate, and/or compensate for any remaining significant adverse project- induced impacts; and {7) To develop an impact management program. The Power Authority proposes several significant mitigation measures in Section 4.4. These measures will be refined during the design period. Some of the factors that will be taken into account during the refinement process include: -The evolution of citizens' attitudes; The development of communities 1 ocated near to the construction sites; Refinements in baseline and with-project socioeconomic forecasts; and -Development of information on the use of fish and wildlife resources. The Power Authority recognizes that mitigation planning for soci a- economic impacts is especially dynamic and will be able, through its impact management program, to identify and mitigate many adverse impacts before they occur. This program is elaborated further in Section 4.5. 4.3 -Attitudes Toward Changes According to a survey done in mid-1980 (Policy Analysts 1980), persons in Palmer, Wasilla, and Houston are generally in favor of development projects. These communities want more economic development (particu- larly jobs) and a more diversified and stable economic base. In Cantwell, public response to economic development (and to the Susitna Project, specifically) has also been generally positive. However, these indications should be taken as tentative because these persons probably had not fully absorbed and reflected upon the information made available to them when they expressed their views. In addition, most of the residents of Cantwell are not aware of the large impacts that could result in or near Cantwell if Ahtna, Inc. leases or sells land for development of housing and related facilities. Persons in Cantwell were more guarded than persons in other communities about their general support for the potential project-induced changes. Several of these persons wanted more jobs for residents of Cantwell and more sales for 1 ocal businesses, but were concerned about project- induced traffic, price increases for goods, services, housing and land, needs for additional education facilities and services, and impacts on the environment such as potential losses of fish and wildlife. E-5-126 - - - - - - - - ,,... - - 4.4 -Mitigation Objectives and Measures Residents of Trapper Creek and Talkeetna have indicated that rapid and uncontrolled change is not desired. Some of the residents of each community would like no changes and others in each community would like to have controlled economic development. Those in favor of controlled development want to proceed with caution and learn more about what caul d happen to their communities as a result of the project before committing to a growth plan. Several residents were concerned about potential losses of fish and wildlife, potential loss of the wilderness or remote character of the middle Susitna basin, and the preservation of fish and wildlife. Additional information about these and other small communities' attitudes toward changes is provided in Braund (1982). Project-induced changes in Anchorage and Fairbanks are expected to be slight. Therefore, these residents' attitudes toward change are not covered here. 4.4 -Mitigation Objectives and Measures The following mitigation objectives are largely based upon the atti- tudes presented in Section 4.3: -Avoid large and rapid population influxes into nearby communities such as Cantwell, Trapper Creek, and Talkeetna. This will result in -avoiding substantial shortages of housing and community facilities and services, cost of living increases, and changes in lifestyle/way- of-life; -Avoid large traffic increases on the Denali and Parks Highways, especially during the summer months; -Avoid large loss of wilderness and remote attributes of the middle Susitna basin, including the avoidance of losses of fish and wildlife resources; -Avoid frequent interactions between workers and fish and wildlife, including involuntary interactions such as injury to animals by vehicles and consumptive use of fish and wildlife by workers; and -Minimize, reduce or eliminate over time, or compensate for, signifi- cant adverse impacts caused by construction worker-related population influxes and effluxes. Two categories of mitigation are available during design and construc- tion of the project. The first category (see Section 4.4.1) contains mitigation measures that help avoid significant adverse impacts. These measures are usually part of project design and construction procedures and include, by design or default, the negotiations between project contractors and entities that represent elements of the work force. E-5-127 4.4 -Mitigation Objectives .and Measures The second category (see Section 4.4.2) contains measures that help communities or other bodies cope with project-induced disruptions that occur during or remain after project design. The Power Authority will first seek to avoid significant adverse impacts, and then it will seek to minimize, reduce or eliminate over time any remaining significant adverse impacts. The last recourse will be compensation for impacts. 4.4.1 -Mitigation Measures That Would Help Avoid Significant Adverse Project-Induced Impacts Factors such as timing of manpower demand; leave, sh·ift, and shift rotation schedules; housing and related facilities at the construction site; and a transportation program for workers can be managed, subject to the results of labor negotiations, to produce different magnitudes and geographic distributions of project-induced changes and impacts. Each specification of these factors will produce unique magnitudes and geographic distribu- tions of project-induced impacts. Some specifications will cause impacts to be largely avoided in some places. (a) Timing of Manpower Demand To the limited extent, it is economically and technically feasible the Power Authority will schedule construction with consideration for minimizing seasonal and annual peaks in the work force and maintain more steady 1 evel s of employ- ment. This will help avoid or reduce the magnitudes and rates of forecasted ·project-induced population and related changes in communities located nearest to the project site. It could also help reduce average daily traffic during the summer months on the Denali and Parks Highways. (b) Leave, Shift, and Shift Rotation Schedules Different leave, shift, and shift rotation schedules will result in different amounts and patterns of residence relo- cation and commuting by workers. These amounts and patterns can be predicted accurately enough to be helpful to mitiga- tion planning. Prior to negotiations with representatives of e1ements of the work force, schedules which appear to be most consistent with preferred impacts on communities and workers and which would result in an acceptab1e cost to the project will be defined by the Power Authority. This definition will be made through simultaneous ana1ysis of this and other mitiga- tion measures discussed below. To the extent possible, the Power Authority will negotiate labor contracts to conform to schedules that help avoid significant adverse impacts on communities and workers. E-5-128 - -' - - - - ~I - - ,... 4.4 -Mitigation Objectives and Measures (c) (d) Housing and Related Facilities The availability, siting, type, quality, and administration (including camp policies, rules and regulations) of housing and related facilities will greatly affect workers' res i- dence preferences. Experience at other projects that are comparable to this project has shown that there is a ten- dency for many workers, especially those with fami 1 i es, to relocate to nearby communities if housing is not available at the construction site. Because communities located near the Susitna construction sites do not have the capacity nor the desire to have their populations increase several-fold in a two or three year peri ad, it waul d be appropriate to provide acceptable housing for the workers at the Susitna construction sites. It has been observed at projects simi 1 ar to the Susitna Project (semi-remote or remote construction sites, variable and frequently unfavorable weather conditions making commut- ing difficult, and nearby communities that are small and have little infrastructure) that, if adequate worker housing and related facilities are available at the construction site and if the leave and other schedules are developed appropriately, workers will tend to maintain their existing family residences and reside at the worksite during shifts. This has resulted in minimizing resettlement by workers in communities located near construction sites. As a measure to avoid large population influxes into nearby communities, the Power Authority will provide single status accommodations at the construction sites for shift workers, and family accommodations and related facilities for workers who will be at the worksite on a more permanent basis. These arrangements, together with appropriate leave and other schedules, will reduce resettlement by workers in nearby communities. Detailed planning for the siting, type, quality, and administration of housing and related facili- ties for workers will begin in 1983 and continue through the design period. Transportation Program for Workers The impacts discussed in Section 3 were forecasted under the assumption that there would be no transportaton program available to the work force. Workers would be responsible for getting to and from the construction site on their own, and waul d be permitted to come and go as they desire from the worksite. Parking would be provided for the workers near the site. E-5-129 4.4 -Mitigation Objectives and Measures The absence of a transportaton program has the general effect of increasing population influxes into small communi- ties 1 ocated nearest to the site. A carefully planned transportation program would reduce these influxes and would influence both the geographic distribution and magnitude of other project-induced changes from what they would be in the absence of such a program. For example, the largest depar- ture from the community impacts discussed in Section 3 would occur if most workers were to travel by organized air trans- portation to the construction sites from the larger cities such as Anchorage and Fairbanks. In this case, impacts on the small communities 1 ocated nearest to the construct ion sites would probably be substantially less then the current- 1 y forecasted 1 evel s. Smaller departures from forecasted communities impacts would occur if other modes of transpor- tation (as elaborated below) were emphasized in a transpor- tation program. A multimode and flexible transportation program would best serve the interests of the communities and the workers. A program that includes a combination of private (personal) and organiied ground {bus and, possibly, van) transportation will allow those workers living in communities along the Parks Highway, including the cities of Fairbanks and Anchorage, easier access to the construction site. Workers could be encouraged through incentives to use organ- ized transportation; it has been observed on other projects that more local workers are hired and that workers are less tired, more alert and punctual, and miss fewer work hours and days if organized transportation is used. This will be particularly true for this project because buses can cope better with the weather than most private vehicles and re- duced traffic will result in fewer collisions with other vehicles and wildlife. The project-induced traffic esti- mates presented in Section 3.1 would be significantly re- duced by an organized ground (or air) transportation pro- gram. The ground transportation can be structured to influence the geographic distribution of project-induced changes. The configuration and location of park-and-ride lots as well as pickup sites are key variables. Organized air service will also influence the geographic distribution and magnitude of project-induced changes. Air transportation from Anchorage and Fairbanks will encourage workers who want to re 1 ocate to settle near or in these cities. It will also tend to draw more of the labor force already living in or near these cities to work on the pro- ject. E-5-130 - - - - - 4.4 -Mitigation Objectives and Measures Anchorage and Fairbanks are the most able cities in Alaska to absorb population influxes. For example, Anchorage is currently experiencing an influx of about 1000 persons per month. It is projected that during 1985.,.1990, the net project-related population influx into Anchorage will equal 663 (this takes into account people moving from Anchorage to the local impact area as well as people moving into Anchorage. Thus, it is unlikely that Anchorage would be si gni fi cantly impacted, even if more than the forecasted amount of persons were to relocate to Anchorage. Commuter air service to the project site would reduce impacts on nearby communities and increase the number of workers who would maintain or relocate their residences to major communities of the Rai"lbelt. Air service levels should be flexible because it may be desirable to change air service if project-induced changes do not occur as anti- cipated. For example, during the peak construction years, it might be appropriate to consider changing air service if project-related populations are causing unanticipated sig- nificant adverse impacts. This could occur if traffic and, perhaps, settlement become too great in and near small com- munities during the peak (summer) periods. Effective air service will route workers, particularly those who arrive from out of the region and do not want to settle temporarily or permanently in the more remote parts of the region, to the larger communities that can most easily provide housing and other services and away from the smaller communities. There are several transportation options under considera- tion. These range from 1 imited intervention to substantial air service and bus service arranged and partially funded by, but not provided by, the Power Authority. In any option, the Power Authority plans to fund a Transportation Coordinator position. Likely impacts of these options on communities and workers will be determined during the design phase. Socioeconomic mitigation objectives will be considered in the selection of a transportation option. Summary The Power Authority, through its plans for housing and rela- ted support facilities at the construction sites, its com- mitment to support a transportation program that helps avoid adverse impacts in communities and on workers, and its com- mitment to develop leave, shift, and shift rotation sche- dules to help meet socioeconomic mitigation objectives, will aid in meeting the following mitigation objectives: E-5-131 4.4 -Mitigation Objectives and Measures -Avoid large and rapid population influxes communities such as Cantwell, Trapper Talkeetna. into nearby Creek, and -Avoid large traffic increases on the Denali and Parks Highways, especially during the summer months; -Avoid large loss of wilderness and remote attributes of the middle Susitna basin, including the avoidance of losses of fish and wildlife resources; and -Avoid frequent interactions between workers and fish and wildlife, including involuntary interactions such as injury to animals by vehicles and consumptive use of fish and wildlife by workers. During the design phase, a transportation option will be selected and onsite housing plans will be refined. This will be done in coordination with planning of leave, shift, and shift rotation schedules and timing of manpower demand. This coordination will help ensure that the most cost- effective means of achieving socioeconomic objectives are chosen. The overall goals are to meet socioeconomic mitiga- tion and other project objectives that are not in conflict with one another, make trade-offs where objectives are in conflict, impose a minimum of constraints upon workers, and implement the plans at an acceptable cost. 4.4.2-Mitigation of Significant Adverse Impacts That Remain in Communities After the mitigation measures discussed above have been designed for implementation, the Power Authority will evaluate whether the private sector, local and state government mechanisms, and social assimilation mechanisms will be able to adequately meet changing demands; and determine additional mitigation measures required to reduce project-induced changes that are not adequately reduced by private, government, and social entities. These measures will be place-specific and the probable effects of each measure will be estimated. The cost of implementing each measure will be estima- ted and each measure will be evaluated for cost-effectiveness. This process will allow the Power Authority to implement mitiga- tion measures with knowledge of their probable effects and costs. There are several means by which the private sector, local and state governments, social service organizations, and if appro- priate, the Power Authority and Contractor can reduce adverse disruptions and budget impacts. These include project-community E-5-132 - ~I - - - - - - - ·- filiYill., - 4.5 -Impact Management Program interaction, provision of additional community facilities and/or services, subdivision development, temporary offsite housing, assistance to social organizations, house financing, and others. Within each of these categories, technical and financial assistance may be available. The Power Authority is now committed to i mpl ementi ng project- community interaction. Communication among the Power Authority, 1 ocal and state agencies, and impacted communities through a public participation program and other means is a necessity. Information about anticipated project-induced changes will be communicated to cornmunities, agencies, and other appropriate entities in a timely manner, and these entities' attitudes toward and concerns about these changes will be communicated back to the Power Authority in a timely manner. Timeliness is important, because one goal of the mitigation program is to anticipate and prescribe mitigation measures in advance of the predicted impacts rather than to react to impacts. Communication among entities is discussed further in the presentation of the Impact Management Program bel ow. 4.5 -Impact Management Program The goal of the impact management program is to reduce adverse socio- economic impacts caused by the project. This will be done by: -Developing and providing impact information to communities, individ- uals, and agencies in a timely manner. This information is intended to assist them in planning for and adjusting to project-induced changes. It is also provided so that attitudes and concerns can be discussed, and planning can be based upon the best available informa- tion; -Refining and implementing cost-effective mitigation measures to re- duce adverse impacts that cannot be adequately handled by existing private, government, and social mechanisms; -Evaluating the effectiveness of mitigation measures; and -Making adjustments to these measures, or adding or deleting measures to achieve desired mitigation objectives. 4.5.1-Developing Impact Information Updated impact assessments will be made as project features, manpower needs and schedules become more defined. Both the baseline and the with-project projections will be updated with new data and information. Current natural resource development, state government spending scenarios, and employment data will be E-5-133 4.5 -Impact Management Program among the most important information used in updating the base case. Project characteristics such as manpower requirements and loading schedules will be among the most important information used in the updates of the with-project projections. If substantial uncertainty exists in key assumptions or para- meters, projects may be based upon a multiple scenario model. With this type of model, ranges of impacts, rather than point estiamtes, can be determined and provided as input to community planning. The update of the base case will include an expanded data base for nearby communities such as Cantwell, Trapper Creek, and Talkeetna which wilt be developed during 1983 and 1984. The new base case will contribute to determining which changes are project-induced. One anticipated use of the expanded data base will be in determining the relative importance of fish and wild- life in local residents• household income, and locations of fish and wildlife harvest and capture. The initial update of the with-project projections will take into account the refined plans for onsite housing and related facili- ties, the selected worker transportation option, and tentative leave, shift and shift rotation schedules. The initial impact assessment, based upon the updated base case and with-project projections, will be the starting point for refinement of measures to assist communities with the mitigation of adverse impacts. Economic and social conditions, including availabilities of hous- ing, facilities, and services, will be monitored in affected communities during construction. Monitoring activities will be more extensive in the nearby communities. The monitoring program will include a determination of seasonal effects of the project. In addition, the work force will be monitored starting in the first year of construction. Factors such as workers• permanent residence before and during construction, numbers of workers with dependents, and numbers of dependents per worker will be moni- to red. Information for these types of factors will help in the determination of project-induced impacts. 4.5.2-Providing Impact and Other Information The Power Authority has developed a special public participation program for this project. Information has been and will continue to be provided to communities, individuals, agencies, and other parties through public meetings and workshops, newsletters, press releases, teleconferences, briefing packets, and other means. E-5-134 - ~ ! - - - - .... - - 4.5-Impact Management Program These parties will have opportunities to express attitudes and concerns about impacts and mitigation measures through the public meetings and workshops, te 1 econferences, writing to the Power Authority, or by special direct consultation with the Power Authority. 4.5.3-Refining and Implementing Mitigation Measures During the design phase, the mitigation measures discussed in Section 4.4.1 (those designed to avoid adverse socioeconomic impacts) will be refined. This will be done by an interdiscipli- nary task force in a multi-objective context. Additional impact projections assessing the effect of different transportation and onsite housing options will be developed. Once the mitigation measures are refined, implementation measures of the type discussed in Section 4.4.2 will be considered and refined. The intent will be to anticipate adverse impacts and make adjustments before the anticipated impacts occur. The monitoring programs will provide information that will allow for evaluation of the performance of mitigation measures on miti- gation objectives. Mitigation measures will be adjusted, and measures will be adjusted, and measures will be added and deleted as required throughout construction to meet the mitigation objec- tives. Before and during construction activities, the Power Authority will interact with the communities, the private sector, state and local government institutions, and human service organizations. Representatives of state and local government institutions and other appropriate entities will be requested to review and comment upon annual mitigation reports, including recommended mitigation measures for future implementation. E-5-135 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ~~ - - - !'"'' r I I~ 5 -MITIGATION MEASURES RECOMMENDED BY AGENCIES Written comments regarding the November 15, 1982 draft Exhibit E are contained in Chapter 11. In Chapter 11 a response is provided for each comment. Some responses refer the reader to sections of Chapter 5 where appropriate changes have been made. Other responses fully address issues raised with no reference to Chapter 5. Several agency comments contained recommendations for mitigation. The main purpose of this section is to summarize these ~ecommendations, and identify the section of Chapter 5 that address these recommendations. A secondary purpose is to summarize important agency suggestions for further work that relate to mitigation. 5.1-Alaska Department of Natural Resources (DNR) Source: Letter to Mr. Eric Yould from Esther Wunnicke, January 13, 1983. -A location with more physical amenities, such as in the Fog Lakes area south of the Susitna River on privately owned land, is recom- mended for the permanent townsite. The DNR feels that the tendency for workers to reside onsite (Exhibit E emphasizes that a high amenity site will minimize adverse impacts to nearby communities) depends on the quality of housing and other amenities. This mitigation recommendation is discussed in Section 4.4.1(c) and Section 4. 5. A more comprehensive approach to ensuring "that the local unemployed get a chance at project-related jobs" is reommended. DNR feels that "it will be necessary to develop a clearly defined and legal program" to encourage local hire. This mitigation recommendation is discussed in the Power Authority's written response to DNR's letter. 5.2 -Alaska Department of Fish and Game (ADF&G) Source: Letter to Mr. Eric Yould from Mr. Don Collinsworth (including Appendix C), January 13, 1983. -The ADF&G would like "some indication as to what can be done to re- solve the impacts" (to resource users). Idications are provided in Section 4.4.1 and Section 4.5. 5.3-U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) Source: Letter to Mr. Eric Yould from Mr. Keith Bayher (including attachment), undated (received by the Power Authority on January 14, 1983. E-5-137 5.3-U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) The FWS states that 11 avoi dance of adverse impacts should be given priority as a mitigation measure 11 , and gives examples such as 11 mode, timing, and routing of construction access; schedule of work; type and siting of the construction camp/village; ••• ~~. This recommendation is discussed in Sections 4.2, 4.4 and 4.5. -The FWS stresses the need for an effective monitoring program and 11 believe the program should provide for participation by representa- tives of appropriate State, Federal, and local agencies and be fi- nanced by the project. This panel should have the authority to recommend modification of how activities are conducted to assure that mitigation is effective". This recommendation is discussed in Sections 4.1 and 4.5. -The FWS would like construction camp alternatives such as siting, type of carnp, and administration considered as means to minimize adverse impacts to fish and wildlife resources and their use. This recommendation is discusssed in Sections 4.4.1(c) and 4 •. 5.1. 5. 4 -Summary of Agencies • Suggestions for Further Studies That Relate To Mitigation The FWS suggests that the base case (baseline projections) be updated. They feel that the data base should be broadened for the update. The FWS also expressed the opinion that the size of impacts, and therefore the mitigation requirements, are directly related to the base case. This suggestion is addressed in Section 4.5.1. The FWS states that "to evaluate impacts to users of fish and wildlife resources, the impacts to resources must first be assessed. In that many of these resource impacts have not been sufficiently quantified, one could not expect an acceptably quantified socioeconomic analysis. This could only have lead to a highly general mitigation plan, which is what we find here. 11 In addition, both the FWS and the ADF&G suggest that more data and information about current and recent use of fish and wildlife resources in the project area could be col1ected. These agencies imply that this collection effort could occur simu1ta- neous to the on-going studies of the impact of the project on fish and wildlife resources. These agencies feel that incomplete analyses of impacts on fish and wildlife users are preventing full eva1uation of socioeconomic issues. Protection of, or minimizing adverse impacts on, existing users of fish and wildlife resources seems to be of concern. E-5-138 - .~ - - - - - - !'""\ I I""", r I 5.4-Summary of Agencies' Suggestions Measures designed to protect or minimize adverse impacts on existing users are discussed in Section 4. These measures will help avoid large losses of the wilderness and remote attributes of the middle Susitna basin, and frequent interactions between workers and fish and wildlife, including involuntary interactions such as injury to animals by vehicles and consumptive use of fish and wildlife by workers. However, if it becomes apparent that existing users of fish and wild- 1 ife deserve further protection, then it would be appropriate to con- sider collecting and analyzing the types of data and information discussed in several of the FWS and the ADF&G comments. This would contribute to the develoJlllent of more in-depth measures to mitigate potential disruptions and other potential adverse impacts on fish and wildlife users. E-5-139 - 1~, r REFERENCES Ahtna, Inc. October 4, 1982. Personal communication. Alaska Department of Community and Regional Affairs. October 22, 1982. Personal communication. Alaska Department of Community and Regional Affairs, Local Government Assistance Division. November 1, 1982. Personal communication. Alaska Department of Fish and Game. 1981. Results of the 1980-81 Southcentral Alaska Trapper Questionnaire. 1982a. Catch and Average Size Per Fish Statistics. 1982b. Cook Inlet Regional Enhancement Plan. 1982c. Personal communication Soldotna Regional Office •• 1982d. Susitna Hydroelectric Project Phase I Final Report, Big Game Studies, Volume II I Moose -Upstream. Prepared for the Alaska Power Authority. • 1982e. Susitna Hydroelectric Project Phase I Final Report, --..-Big Game Studies, Volume I I Moose -Downstream. Prepared for the Alaska Power Authority. {Biologist Herb Melchior). 1982f. Personal communication • • 1982g. Fish and Wildlife Resource and Public Use Information ----~for Matanuska-Susitna-Beluga Study Area • • 1982h. Susitna Hydroelectric Project, Subtask 7.10 Aquatic ----..,..Studies -Stock Separation Feasibility Report. Prepared for the Alaska Power Authority. Alaska Department of Labor. 1981. Wage Rates for Selected Occupations. Alaska Department of Labor, Division of Research and Analysis. January 30, 1981. Personal communication. December 15, 1981. Personal communi cation. Alaska Department of Labor. Various issues. Statistical Quarterly. Alaska Department of Transportation and Public Facilities, Traffic Division. September 21, 1982. Personal communication. Planning and Research Division. September 22, 1982. Personal communication. Maintenance and Operations Division. September 23, 1982. Personal communication. Alaska Office of the Governor, Division of Policy Development and Planning. 1982. Human Impact of Large-Scale Development Projects. Policy Analysis Paper No. 82-7. Alaska Railroad. January, 1981. Personal communication. Alaska Statute, Undated. Title 16, Section 05.020. Anderson, E. and J. Chalmers. 1977. Economic/Demographic Assessment Manual: Current Practices, Procedural Recommendations, and a Test Case. Mountain West Research. Tempe, Arizona. Arctic Environmental Engineers. 1977 and 1978. Solid Waste Disposal Study. Prepared for the Matanuska-Susitna Borough. Bailey, Jim. October 1, 1982. Personal communication. Burchell, R. W. and D. Listokin. 1978. The Fiscal Impact Handbook. The Center for Urban Policy Research. Princeton, New Jersey. CCC Architects and Planners. November 24, 1981. Personal communication. City of Palmer, Office of the Mayor. November 1981. Budget Prepara- tion Worksheet for Fiscal Year 1982. Palmer, Alaska. City of Wasilla, Office of the Mayor. June 1981. City of Wasilla: Budget FY/81. Wasilla, Alaska. Commercial Fisheries Entry Commission. October 1982a. Personal communication. 1982b. Personal communication. Community of Cant we 11 , Inc. 1982. 1982 Popu 1 at ion Census. Conducted in coordination with the U. S. Postal Service. Cantwell, Alaska. September 28, 1982. Personal communication. Council on Environmental Equality, Office of the President. November 29, 1978. Regulations for Implementing the Procedural Provisions of the National Enviornmental Policy Act. 43 FR 55978-56007. Denver Research Institute. February 1982. Socioeconomic Im~acts of Power Plants. Prepared for Electric Power Research Ins itute. Dow Chemical U.S.A. November 24, 1981. Personal communication. Frank Moolin & Associates. November 19, 1981. Personal communication. ,...., - - - - - - ,..., I - - - Frank Moolin & Associates. November 19, 1981. Personal communication. Frank Orth & Associates, Inc. Apri 1 1982. Project Environmental Studies, Subtask Analysis Phase I Report. Prepared for and the Alaska Power Authority. Susitna Hydroelectric 7.05: Soc1oeconom1c Acres American Incorporated Friese, N. November 1975. Pre-Authorization Assessment of Anadromous Fish Populations of the Upper Susitna River Watershed in the Vicinity of the Proposed Devil Canyon Hydroelectric Project. Prepared for the Alaska Department of Fish & Game, Division of Commercial Fisheries. Gipson, Philip. September 1982. Agricultural Experiment Station, Schoo 1 of Agriculture and Land Resources Management, University of Alaska-Fairbanks, Susitna Hydroelectric Study Project. September 1982. Personal communication. Goldsmith, S. and Hyskey, L. May 1980. Electric Power Consumption for the Railbelt: A Projection of Requirements -Technical Appen- dices. Institute of Social and Economic Research. Prepared for State of Alaska House Power Alternatives Study Committee and Alaska Power Authority. H. E. Goldberg & Co. 1982. The Goldberg Report Fur Price List. Seattle, Washington. Holmes & Naver, Inc. January 19, 1981. Life Support Facility Planning and Evaluation Concept Study for Construction and Deployment Per- sonnel M-X Weapons System. Prepared for the U. S. Army Corps of Engineers. International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers Union Local 1547. January 18, 1982. Personal communication. Ironworkers Local 751. January 18, 1982. Personal communication. Jubenville, A., T. Gasbarro, and S. Regan. January 1981. Susitna Hydroelectric Project Annual Report on Land Use Analys1s. Agricultural Experiment Station, School of Agriculture and Land Resources Management, University of Alaska-Fairbanks. Prepared for the Alaska Power Authority. Laborers and Hod Carriers Local 341. January 18, 1982. Personal com- munication. Leistritz, F. L. and S. Murdock. 1981. The Socioeconomic Impact of Resource Development: Methods for Assessment. Westv1ew Press. Boulder, Colorado. Matanuska-Susitna Borough Engineering Division. January 3, 1983. Per- sonal communication. Matanuska-Susitna Borough Finance Department. June 1981. Matanuska- Susitna Borough 1981-1982 Annual Budget. Palmer~ Alaska. Matanuska-Susitna Borough Finance Director. October 20~ 1982. Per- sonal communication. December 1982. Personal communication. Matanuska-Susitna Borough Land Management Division. December 22~ 1982. Personal communication. Matanuska-Susitna Borough Planning Department. 1981. Matanuska- Susitna Borough Population Survey. Palmer, Alaska. Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District. October 1981. Prioritized Capital Project List. June 1981. Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District Proposed Budget Fiscal Year 1981-82. Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District Business Manager. December 1981. Personal communication. Matanuska-Susitna Borough Service Area Coordinator. December 1981. Personal communication. Metz, W. C. September 11, 1980. The Mitigation of Socioeconomic Impacts by Electric Utilities. Public Utilities Fortnightly. 1981. Worker/Vehicle Ratios at Major Eastern Power Plant Construction Sites: A Time of Change. Traffic Quarterly. Volume 35, No. 3. September 1981. Construction Workforce Management: Worker Transportation and Temporary Housing Techniques. Prepared for the Western Rural Development Center. October 1981. Energy Industry Involvement in Worker Transpor- tation. Submitted to Transportation Quarterly. __ ";::;". August 25, 1982. Industry Initiatives in Impact Mitigation. Prepared for the Proceedings of the Alaska Symposium on Social~ Economic, and Cultural Impact of Natural Resource Development. Anchorage, Alaska. Mills, M. J. 1979-1981. Statewide Harvest Survey. Alaska Department of Fish and Game. Morrison-Knudsen Company, Inc. W. J. Renauld. December 1981. Personal communication. - - - .... - """'' .... - -! P""' I ..... Mountain West Research North, Inc. July 1982. Guide to Social Assessment. Prepared for the Bureau of Land Management Social Effect Project. Billings, Montana. N.W. Alaskan Pipeline Company. December 14, 1981. Personal communication. Palmer City Manager. October 15, 1981. Personal communication. Plasterers and Cement Masons Local 867. January 18, 1982. Personal communication. Plumbers and Steamfitters Local 367. January 18, 1982. Personal communication. Policy Analysts, Limited and Or. Richard Ender. May 1980. Mat-Su Housing and Economic Development Study: Survey Findings. Anchorage, Alaska. Quebec Hydro Center. November 20, 1981. Personal communication. Railbelt School District Superintendent. September 30, 1982. Personal communication. Stenehjem, E. J. and J. E. Metzger. 1980. A Framework for Projecting Employment and Population Changes Accompanying Energy Develop- ment. Argonne National Laboratory. Argonne, Illinois. Stephen R. Braund & Associates, Inc. March 1982. Susitna Hydroelec- tric Project Sociocultural Studies. Prepared for Acres American Incorporated and Alaska Power Authority. Terrestrial Environmental Specialists, Inc. April 1982. Susitna Hydroelectric Project Pha·se I Environmental Studies Final Report, Subtask 7.07: Land Use Analysis. Prepared for Acres American Incorporated and the Alaska Power Authority. University of Alberta. 1980. Faculty of Extension. and Forecasting Socioeconomic Impacts of Growth Proceedings of a Conference Held in Jasper Park 20-23, 1980. Computer Models and Deve 1 opment. Lodge, Apri 1 U. S. Army Corps of Engineers, Engineer Institute for Water Resources. June 1981. Construction Work Force. Fort Belvoir, Virginia. U. S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal Income Statistics. U. S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. September 1982. Applica- tion Procedures for Hydropower Licenses, License Amendments, Exemptions and Preliminary Permits, Office of Electric Power Regulation, FERC-0100. Valley Hospital. October 14, 1982. Personal communication . -,. II J 1 1 1 TABLE E.5.1: MATANUSKA-SUSITNA BOROUGH ANNUAL NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT BY SECTOR Percent of Impact 1970 1975 1979 1970 Total % Total % Total % -%- TOTAL(a) -Nonagricultural Industries 1,145 100.0 2,020 100.0 3,078 100.0 1.8 Mining * * 11 0.3 * Construction 120 10.5 188 9.3 184 6.0 2.3 Manufacturing * 30 1.5 40 1.3 * Transportation -Communication & Utilities 114 9.6 218 10.8 316 10.2 1.9 Wholesale Trade 44 2.2 49 1.6 Retai 1 Trade 174 15.2 271 13.4 696 22.6 1.4 Finance-Insurance & Retail Estate 22 1.9 62 3.1 129 4.2 0.8 Services 179 15.6 288 14.3 447 14.5 2.0 Federal Government 106 9.3 124 6.1 97 3.1 0.9 State and Local Government 376 32.8 758 37.5 1,101 35.8 3.2 Miscellaneous * * 21 0.7 * *Data unavailable due to disclosure policy. (a) Figures may not total correctly because of averaging and disclosure limitations on data. Source: Alaska Department of Labor. Statistical Quarterly. Juneau, AK (various issues). Area 3 1975 1979 -%-% 1.8 2.7 * 0.0 1.1 2.2 1.2 1.1 1.8 2.6 0.8 1.0 1.7 3.8 1.3 2.1 1.4 2.3 1.0 0.8 4.3 5.2 * 1.8 TABLE E.5.2: COMMUNITY POPULATION: MATANUSKA-SUSITNA BOROUGH, 1939, 1950, 1960, 1970, 1976, 1980, 1981 Community 1939 1950 1960 1970 1976(a) 198o(b) 198l(a) Talkeetna 13~ 106 76 182 328 265 640 Willow NA c) NA 78 38 (323) 134 NA Was ill a 96 97 112 300 1566 1548 2168 Palmer 150 890 1181 1140 1643 2143 2567 Montana NA NA 39 33 76 40 NA Big Lake NA NA 74 36 721 412 2408 Chickaloon NA NA 43 22 62 20 NA Eska Sutton 14 54 215 89 496 NA NA Houston NA NA NA 69 375 325 600 COMMUNITY POPULATION: OTHER COMMUNITIES NOT IN MATANUSKA-SUSITNA BOROUGH Community 1950 1960 1970 1976 198o(b) 1982(d) Nenana 242 286 382 493 471 NA Healy NA NA 79 503 333 NA Cant we 11 NA 85 62 NA 182 183 Paxson NA NA 20 NA 30 NA Glennallen 142 169 363 NA 488 NA Copper Center 90 151 206 NA 213 NA Gakona 50 33 88 NA 85 NA Gulkana 65 51 53 NA 111 NA (a) Mat-Su Borough Survey. The methodology for these surveys differs from U.S. Census data and hence the 1976 and 1981 figures are not comparable to Census data. (b) Alaska Department of Labor, Administrative Services Division. January 1, 1981. Alaska 1980 Population: A Preliminary Overview. Juneau, AK. (c) NA ~ Not Available. (d) Community Census, September 1982. Source: For all other data, U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. - - - - 1 ! I - - - - F"' ! F"" r- - - r Year 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 TABLE E.5.3: PER CAPITA PERSONAL INCOME IN THE MAT-SU BOROUGH IN CURRENT AND 1970 DOLLARS Per Capita Personal Income Current In 1970 Dollars Dollars(a) 3,957 3,957 4,279 4,150 4,539 4,286 4,970 4,526 6,068 5,011 8,092 5,855 8,542 5,718 9,032 5,666 8,939 5,231 8,878 4,704 (a) Discounted using the Anchorage Consumer Price Index -Urban (CPI-U) as a measure of inflation. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Area Talkeetna Houston TABLE E.5.4: HOUSING STOCK ESTIMATES AND VACANCY RATES IN LOCAL IMPACT AREA Number Percent of of Units Total 196 2.3 229 2.7 Big Lake Special Area 1,750 20.4 Was i 11 a 718 8.4 Suburban(a) 3,801 44.3 Palmer 872 10.2 Other Areas in Mat-su(b) 1,016 11.8 Cantwell 96 1.1 Total Loca 1 Impact Area 8,678 100.0 Vacancy 1 Rate (%) 1.0 9.6 49.9 6.7 6.8 10.2 52.8 28.1 20.7 (a) Includes an area that is outside of Palmer and Wasilla•s city limits and extends w~st to Houston and east to Sutton. {b) Includes an estimated 69 housing units in Trapper Creek. Source: Matanuska-Susitna Borough Planning Department, Population and Housing Survey, October 1981; and Cantwell Population and Housing Census, September 1982. - - ~1 -I - - - - - - - 1 -\ABLE r 5. 5 J l COMMUNITY FACILITIES SUMMARY >. -4-) c: Government -•r-0 ro . .--.,... ro V'l -4-) u ...... ....., 0"1 .,.... 0 V'l ro u ro c: Q) ""'0 QJ a. 0 U-ro ,_. -4-) ...... u Q) ,_. Scho-ols V) 0. U-ro s... '0 ...... ::::: ::J . ,... Q) -4-) 0 r-> .......... "0 0:: 0 s... s... s... ..s::: ..... 0. .,... s... c: Q) Q) Q) E Q) ro -4-) 0. V'l ::J Q) 0 VI -4-) Q) Q) a. u Q) -4-) u ....-V'l c: ro Q) E Vl ..... VI VI ro E ~ +.J 0 ...... -4-) c: ro 0 ro u Q) ....., 11'1 rtl "-0 ::..., V'l 0 .--V'l r-Q) E Q) .:::t: s... ~ ...... -4-) Q) rtl Q) rtl ..... 0 ::I: ro s... rtl L 0 :J? .--u s... .:::t: '0 1-a. '+-11'1 c: u ,..... ,.... u a. -4-) rtl 3 1-0. ro QJ .--I'd . ,_. >. ...... '+->. 0 . ..... ::J u s... "0 c: "0 s... :I: ..s::: 1-.--ro 0 u s... s... c: 0 Vl ..s::: c: 0:: "0 0 QJ QJ c: QJ s... L "0 Q) .---4-) -4-) rtl s... 11'1 s... .,... -4-) rtl ::J L 0. ::J -4-) r:: u .,... E 0 ..c QJ QJ .,... +.J ro s... Q) ....-0"1 +.J Q) "0 r-r-Ill s... ~ -4-) .:.e. Q) Q) ~ ~ V) 0 r:: '+-CIJ u 0"1 +.J ~ r-rtl u ::J s... rtl r:: c: c: ro .,... .0 L .0 Ill s... 3.: r-L u .,... .,... r-CIJ .,... rtl QJ 0 +.J 0 0 .,... ~ 0 Q) Q) 0 rtl ::J .,... ,,_. ·o 0 rtl 0 CIJ 0 0 .,... QJ r:: c LLJ Vl ::I: 3: Vl Vl Vl -l u U--l ...-UJ c:: 0::: 0. c:( -J u 0. 0. 0. 1-u .:::t: IJ.. Vl ::> :::> ,._ Nenana * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * ·k * Cantwell * * * * * * * * * * * * Trapper Creek * * * * * * * * * Talkeetna * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Hi llow * * * * * * * * * * * * Houston * * * * * * * * Palmer * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * l~a s i 11 a • * * * * * * * * * •· * * * * * * * * Paxson * * * * * ·k * Glennallen * * * * * * * .,, * * * * * * * * 1r * Copper Center * * * * * * * * * * * ·It * ' Gakona * * * * * * * * * Healy * * * * * * * * * * 'ir * * * * Gulkana * * * * * * * * * * Valdez * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * • * Anchorage * * * * * * * * * * * k * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Fairbanks * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * -lr * * * * * TABLE E.5.6: CHARACTERISTICS OF PUBLIC SCHOOLS: MATANUSKA-SUSITNA BOROUGH SCHOOL DISTRICT 1981 School School Type Grade Capacity Enrollment Condition/Plans for Expansion Big Lake E 1-6 350 177 No plans. Butte E 1-6 500 300 No plans. Glacier View E/J 1-8 60 50 Currently consists of port- ables. Plan to build two classrooms. I d ita rod E Pre-6 550 460 Recently burned down. Plan to have back in operation by 1/82. Sherrod E Pre,3-6 450 454 No plans. Skwentna E/J/S 4-12 15 16 No plans. Snowshoe E 1-6 500 409 New facility. Swanson E 1,2 350 231 No plans. Talkeetna E 1-6 120 65 No plans. Trapper Creek E 1-6 30 40 Presently four portable facilities have submitted a grant proposal for facility consisting of four classrooms and a gym/multipurpose room. -J J j .J J -J TABLE E.5.6 (Cont'd) School School Type Grade Capacity Enrollment Was ill a Elementary E 1 120 90 Willow Elementary E 1-6 91 96 Palmer J 7-8 500 332 Wasilla J 1-8 600 353 Palmer s 9-12 900 619 Susitna Valley J/S 7-12 180 122 Wasilla s 9-12 1,200 715 Matanuska-Susitna cc NA NA 1,500 Community College E = Elementary; J = Junior; S = Senior; CC =Community College Source: Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District -1 Condition/Plans for Expansion Very old facility with half of building condemned. Have plans for a new facility in 1984. Expansion considered in the five year buildill_g_ plan. No plans. Recently completed addition to facility. No plans. Plans for additions for the and and vocationa1 studies. Recently completed addition to the facility. NA TABLE E.5.7: REGIONAL NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT Percent of State 1970 1975 1979 1970 1975 1979 Total % Total % Total % -%--%-% TOTAL(a) -Nonagricultural Industries 62,690 100.0 113,818 100.0 113,204 100.0 67.8 70.4 68.0 Mining 1,610 2.6 2,243 2.0 2,822 2.5 53.7 59.2 48.9 Construction 5,264 8.4 16,359 14.4 8,257 7.3 76.3 63.6 81.8 Manufacturing 1,850 3.0 2,596 2.3 3,705 3.3 23.7 26.9 28.9 Transportation -,Communication & Utilities 6,021 9.6 12,094 10.6 12,062 10.7 66.2 73.4 72.2 Wholesale Trade 5,366 4.7 5,083 4.5 90.8 92.2 Retail Trade 12,111 19.3 15,965 14.0 18,309 16.2 79.2 78.6 76.7 Finance-Insurance & Retail Estate 2,520 4.0 4,696 4.1 6,139 5.4 81.3 77.9 76.4 Services 8,868 14.1 20,995 18.4 19,674 17.4 77.8 83.5 69.4 Federal Government 12,372 19.7 13,022 11.4 12,728 11.2 72.4 71.2 71.0 State and Local Government 11,585 18.5 17,799 15.6 21,130 18.7 62.6 60.9 57.7 Miscellaneous 52 0.1 217 0.2 712 0.6 26.0 19.0 98.9 (a) Sums of individual entries may not equal total due to averaging and disclosure limitations on data. Source: Alaska Department of Labor. Statistical Quarterly. Juneau, AK (various issues). ..... 1 ] ) J TABLE E. 5.8: 1981 CIVILIAN HOUSING STOCK IN THE · MJNICIPALITY OF ANCHORAGE, BY TYPE Source: Municipality of Jlnchorage Planning Department. ,.. .. - TABLE E.5.9: HOUSING STOCK IN FAIRBANKS AND THE FAIRBANKS-NORTH STAR BOROUGH, BY TYPE, OCTOBER 1978 Fairbanks-North Star Municipality Borough of Fairbanks Single Family 6,849 3,312 Duplex 960 714 Multifamily 3,832 3,187 Mobile Homes 2,097 138 TOTAL 13,738 7,351 Source: Fairbanks-North Star Borough Community Information Center. Community Information Quarterly. Summer 1980. Volume III, Number 2. p. 70. - - - - ~I - .... - - ) --~l l TABLE E.5.10: STATE ANNUAL NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT BY SECTOR 1970 1975 1979 Total ra Total % Total % TOTAL(a) -Nonagricultural Industries 92,400 100.0 161,689 100.0 166,406 100.0 Mining 3,000 3.2 3,790 2. 3 5,773 3. 5 Construction 6,900 7. 5 25,735 15. 9 10,092 6. 1 Manufacturing 7,800 8. 4 9,639 6. 0 12,818 7. 7 Transportation -Communication & Utilities 9,100 9. 8 16,473 10. 2 16,704 10.0 Wholesale Trade 3,200 3. 5 5, 908 3. 7 5, 511 3. 3 Retail Trade 12,100 13.1 20,300 12. 6 23, 877 14.3 Finance-Insurance & Retail Estate 3,100 3. 3 6,030 3. 7 8,035 4. 8 Services 11' 400 12.3 25,136 15. 5 28,345 17.0 Federal Government 17' 100 18.5 18,288 11.3 17,915 10.8 State and Local Government 18,500 20.0 29,247 18. 1 36, 61 7 22.0 Miscellaneous 200 0.2 1,143 0.7 720 0.4 aFigures may not total correctly because of averaging. Source: Alaska Department of Labor. Statistical Quarterly. Juneau, AK (various issues). TABLE E.5.11: SUMMARIZED IMPACT OF THE SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT ON MATANUSKA-SUSITNA BOROUGH Present Conditions Watana Construction Peak Devil Can~on Construction Peak 1990 % Increase % Increase 19B1 1990 Forecast Impact Over 1999 1999 Impact Over Socioeconomic 1981 Amount/ Baseline with of Baseline Baseline Forecast of Baseline Variable Ca!:!acit~ Usage Forecast Project Project Forecast Forecast With Project Project Forecast Population NA 22,285 42,964 44, 353 (a) 1, 389 (a) 3. 2 (a) 66,338 67,385 (a) 1,047(a) 1. 6 (a) Emplo)fllent (b) NA 4,002 6, 914 10, 880 3,966 57.4 9,505 11 '691 2, 186 23.0 Housing Demand (no. of units) 8,582 6,810 14,417 14,903 486 3.4 24,670 25,036 366 1. 5 Water NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA ~ (gallons per day) Solid Waste Dis')sal 617 2.5 6.7 7.0 o. 3 4.0 13.6 13.8 0.2 1. 3 ( acres per year Sewage Treatment NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA (gallons per day) Police 20 20 48 49 2.1 75 76 1.3 Education (primary students) 3,136 2, 3B8 5,406 5,608 202 3. 7 8,884 9, 011 157 1.4 (secondary students) 3,380 2,141 4,605 4,764 159 3.5 7,56B 7,674 131 1. 7 Hospital Beds 23 20 60 61 1. 7 109 110 0.9 Communit/ c) 0 80 82 2 2.4 133 135 2 1. 5 Parks (acres) NA = Not Applicable (a) Population increase refers to population influx in Mat-Su Borough communities, and does not include population residing only at work camp/v ill £ge. (b) By place of emplo)fllent. (c) Community parks generally contain facilities such as tennis courts, ball diamonds, play apparatus, basketball courts, nature walks, and s wimm irg pools. Source: Forecast by Frank Orth &: Associates, Inc. ) --J .J .·.· ...• TABLE E.5.12: SUMMARIZED IMPACT .OF THE SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT ON THE CITY OF PALMER Present Conditions Watana Construction Peak Devil Can~ on Construction Peak 1990 % Increase % Increase 1981 1990 Forecast Impact Over 1999 1999 Impact Over Socioeconomic 1981 Amount/ Baseline with of Baseline Baseline Forecast of Baseline Variable CaE!acit~ Usage Forecast Project Project Forecast Forecast With Project Project Forecast Population( a) NA 2,567 4,525 4,574 49 1 .1 6,167 6,206 39 0.6 Employment NA (b) (b) (b) 29 (b) (b) (b) 13 (b) Housing Demand 872 783 1,551 1,568 17 1 • 1 2,299 2,313 14 0.6 (no. of units) Water 1, 368 ,ooo (gallons per day) 300,000 608,000 615,000 7,000 1. 2 918,500 923,500 5,500 0.6 Sewage Treatment 500,000 300,000 543,000 549,000 (gallons per day) 6,000 1 • 1 740,000 745,000 5,000 0.7 Police 8 8 8 8 0 o.o 9 9 0 o.o Education 800(c) 685(c) (primary students) 569 576 7 1. 2 826 832 6 0.7 (secondary students) 1 ,400(c) 951(c) 485 491 6 1.2 704 709 5 0.7 Hospital Beds NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA .NA =Not Applicable (a) By place of employment. (b) Data not available. (c) School service areas do not correspond exactly to city limits. 1981 enrollment may include a service area that extends beyond city boundaries, whereas projections for .. 1990 and 1999 refer only to school children living in Palmer. Source: Forecasts by Frank Orth & Associates, Inc. TABLE E.5.13: SUMMARIZED IMPACT OF THE SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT ON THE CITY OF ,WASILLA Present Conditions Socioeconomic 1981 Variable Capacity Population Nl\ Emp I oyment (a) !IV\ Housing Demand 718 (no. of unIts) Water 864,000 (gallons per day) Sewage Treatment No\ (gallons per day) Pol ice NA Education (primary students) 1, 170 (secondary students) 1, aoo< c > Hospital Beds !IV\ NA =Not Applicable (a) By place of employment. ( b ) 0!! ta not ava i I ab I e. 1981 Amount/ Usaqe 2, 168 (b) 670 (b) Nl\ !IV\ 959(C) 1, 068( c) NA 1990 Baseline Forecast 4, 157 (b) 1,404 559,000 Nl\ ~ 523 446 Nl\ Watana Construction Peak Devi I Canyon Construct ion 1990 'f, Increase Forecast Impact Over 1999 1999 Impact with of Baseline Baseline Forecast of ProJect ProJect Forecast Forecast With Pro.ject ProJect 4, 216 59 1. 4 7, 969 8, 017 48 (b) 28 (b) (b) (b) 13 1,424 20 1. 4 2, 965 2, 982 17 567, 000 8, 000 1. 4 1, 186,000 1,193,000 7,000 ~ !IV\ !IV\ !IV\ !IV\ !IV\ !IV\ !IV\ Nl\ !IV\ !IV\ ~ 531 8 1. 5 1, 067 1, 075 8 453 7 1.6 909 914 5 NA NA Nl\ Nl\ !IV\ !IV\ Peak % Increase Over Base I ina Forecast 0.6 (b) 0.6 0.6 !IV\ !IV\ o. 7 o. 6 NA (c) School service areas do not correspond exactly to city limits. 1981 enrollment may include a service area that extends beyond city boundaries, whereas proj(!Ctions for 1990and 1999referonly to school children livinq in Wasilla. Source: Forecasts by Frank Orth & Associates, Inc. ,) J --~ J l TABLE E.5.14: SUMMARIZED IMPACT OF THE SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT ON THE CITY OF HOUSTON Present Conditions Watana Construction Peak Devi I Canyon Construction Peak SocIoeconomic 1981 Variable Capacity Population Employment (a) HousIng Demand (no. of units) Water (gallons per day) Sewage Treatment (gallons per day) Pol ice Education (primary students) (secondary students) Hospital Beds NA =Not Applicable (a) By place of employment. <b> Data not available. ~ NA 229 NA NA NA o<c> o<c> NA 1990 1981 1990 Forecast Amount/ Baseline with Usage Forecast Project 600 1, 415 1, 459 (b) (b) (b) 207 508 523 NA Nil. ~ NA NA NA NA NA ~ o<c> 178 184 o<c> 152 157 NA NA ~ % Increase Impact Over 1999 1999 Impact of Baseline Baseline Forecast of Pro,ject Forecast Forecast With Pro,ject ProJect 44 3. 1 3,335 3, 372 37 9 (b) (b) (b) 7 15 3.0 1,249 1,262 13 NA ~ ~ NA NA Nil. ~ NA ~ NA NA ~ ~ NA NA 6 3.4 447 453 6 5 3.3 380 384 4 NA NA NA NA NA (c) School service areas do not correspond to city limits. Children in Houston currently attend schools outside of the city. A secondary school initially accommodating 300 students is planned. Source: Forecasts by Frank Orth & Associates, Inc. % Increase Over Baseline Forecast 1. I (b) 1. 0 ~ ~ ~ 1. 3 1. 1 ~ TABLE E.5.15: SUMMARIZED IMPACT OF THE SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT ON THE COMMUNITY OF TRAPPER CREEK Present Conditions Socloeconoml c 1981 Variable Ca(!aclt:t Population Employment (a) HousIng Demand (no. of unIts) Water (gallons per day) Sewage Treatment (ga II ons per dayl Pollee Education (primary students) (secondary students) Hospital Beds NA =Not Applicable (a) By place of employment. (b) Data not available. NA NA 69 NA NA NA 30(c) 0 (c) NA 1981 Amount/ Usage 225 (b) 68 NA NA NA 40(d) o<d> NA Watana Construction Peak 1990 % Increase 1990 Forecast Impact Over Baseline with of Baseline Forecast Pro,ject Pro,ject Forecast 320 795 475 148.4 (b) (b) 113 (b) 107 275 168 157 .o NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 78 143-163 65-85 109.0 34 92 58 170.6 NA NA NA NA (c) Planned capacity of 100 with room tor expansion to 200. Devil Can~on Construct ion Peak % Increase 1999 1999 Impact Over Baseline Forecast of Baseline Forecast W lth Pro,ject Project Forecast 456 710 314 68.9 (b) (b) 48 (b) 169 279 111 65.1 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 116 161-181 45-65 56.0 52 92 40 76.9 NA NA NA NA (d) School service areas do not correspond exactly to community delineations. The Trapper Creek elementary school serves a wide area outside of the community. Secondary school-age children from Trapper Creek attend Susltna Valley High School. Source: Forecasts by Frank Orth & Associates, Inc. J J J .J ----1 1 ) l -l J TABLE E.5.16: SUMMARIZED IMPACT OF THE SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT ON THE COMMUNITY OF TALKEETNA Present Conditions Socioeconomic 1981 Variable Ca(!aclty Population Empl oyment(a) HousIng Demand (no. of units> Water (gal Ions per day> Sewage Treatment (gallons per day> Pollee Education ( pr !mary students> (secondary students) Hospital Beds NA = Not Appl !cable (a) By place of employment. Cb) Data not available. NA NA 196 NA NA NA 120(c) 0 (c) NA 1981 Amount/ Usage 640 (b) 194 NA NA NA 73 (c) o(c) NA 1990 Baseline Forecast 1, 000 (b) 334 NA NA NA 126 107 NA Watana Construction Peak Devil Can~on Construction Peak 1990 % Increase % Increase Forecast Impact Over 1999 1999 Impact Over with of Baseline Baseline Forecast of Baseline ProJect Pro,ject Forecast Forecast With Pro,ject ProJect Forecast 1,335 335 33.5 1, 563 1,820 257 16.4 (b) 114 (b) (b) (b) 48 (b) 451 117 35.0 581 670 89 15.3 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 164 48 30.2 209 240 39 14.8 138 41 29.0 178 204 31 14.6 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA (c) School service areas do not correspond exactly to community delineations. Secondary school-age children attend Susltna Valley High School. Source: Forecasts by Frank Orth & Associates, Inc. TABLE E.5.17: Present Conditions 1982 Socioeconomic 1982 Amount/ Variable CaEaclty Usage Popul atlon Employment(a) Housing Demand (no. of unIts) Water (gallons per day) Sewage Treatment (gallons per day) Pollee Education (no. of school children) NA =Not Applicable (a) By place of employment (b) Data not available W\ 183 W\ (b) 96 69 NA NA NA NA NA 60 33 SUMMARIZED IMPACT OF THE SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT ON THE COMMUNITY OF CANTWELL (HIGH CASE IMPACTS) Watana Construction Peak Devil Canyon Construction Peak 1990 % Increase % Increase 1990 Forecast Impact Over 1999 1999 Impact Over Baseline with of Baseline Basel ina Forecast of BaselIne Forecast Project Pro,ject Forecast Forecast With Project Pro,ject Forecast 214 1,214 1,000 467.2 256 543 796 310.9 (b) (b) 190 (b) (b) (b) 120 (b) 78 411 333 426.9 93 361 264 283.8 NA NA NA NA NA W\ NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 6 5 500.0 4 3 300.0 39 189 150 246.2 46 108 118 134.8 Source: Forecasts by Frank Orth & Associates, Inc. J J I l J l 1 l l l TABLE E.5.18: SUMMARIZED IMPACT OF THE SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT ON THE REGION(al Watana Construction Peak Devi I Canyon Construction Peak 1990 % Increase % Increase 1990 Forecast Impact Over 1999 1999 Impact Socioeconomic 1980 Baseline with of Baseline Baseline Forecast of Variable Amount Forecast Project ProJect Forecast Forecast With Project Pro,ject Population 284,166 397,999 399,866 I ,867 o. 5 473, 191 473,882 691 Employment 114 112(b) , 200, 112 206, 128 6, 016 3. 0 232,311 235,466 3, 155 Households 96,899 138,938 139,613 675 o. 5 171,895 172, 156 261 (a) Includes the following census divisions: Anchoraqe, Kenai Peninsula, Mat-Su Borouqh, Fairbanks-North Star Borouqh, S.E. Fairbanks and Valdez~hltlna...Whittier. (b) Average emp I oyment during the fIrst nIne months of 1980. Source: Forecasts by Frank Orth & Associates, Inc. Over Baseline Forecast o. 1 1. 4 0.2 ) TABLE E. 5.19: IMPACT OF THE PROJECT ON POPULATION IN MAT-SU BOROUGH 2 19aS-2002 Project- Induced Off site Total 01site Base Cost Population Off site Population Year Po~ulation Influx Po~ulation Influx 19as 31,202 110 31' 312 1' 017 19a6 33,950 146 34,096 1' 243 19a7 36,a94 721 37' 615 1, 971 19aa 39, 323 9aS 40,30a 2, 601 19a9 41,543 1' 107 42,650 2,9a2 1990 42,964 1' 3a9 44,353 3, 967 1991 45,263 1, 337 46,600 3,472 1992 47,112 1' 210 4a,322 2,.772 1993 49,734 1' 013 50,747 1, 724 1994 51' 9aa 937 52, 925 1, 333 1995 54,607 a91 SS,49a 1 ,oss 1996 57' 191 924 sa, 11 s 1' 340 1997 60,272 975 61,247 1' 765 199a 63,000 1, 032 64,032 2,090 1999 66,33a 1,047 67,385 2,1 a3 2000 69,334 1, 021 70, 355 1' 868 2001 72,731 930 73,661 1,1 as 2002 76,295 a37 77,132 3a6 Source: Projections by frank Orth & Associates, Inc. Total Po~ulation 32,329 35,339 39,Sa6 42,909 45,632 4a,oso 50,072 51' 094 52,471 S4,2Sa 56,553 59,455 63,012 66,122 69,S6a 72,223 74,846 77, s1 a - - - illl=lli ~ - - - - """ -I - ·- ...... - - TABLE E.5.20: DAILY ESTIMATED TRAFFIC VOLUMES DURING PEAK CONSTRUCTION YEAR AND SEASON: ONE WAY TRIPS DAILY BASIS Descrll!tion Case A (a) Case B (b) Cantwel I Commuters: Access Road and Dena! I Highway 86 50 Commute to Permanent Residence by Other Region Residents: Access Road and Denali Highway Traffic 358 208 Worker and Resident Dependent Excursions During Work Week: Access Road Traffic 350 350 Worker and Resident Dependent Excursions During 30(c) 30(c) Work Week: Denali Highway Traffic Government and Agency Personnel 10 10 Heavy Trucks 70 70 Support Materials 20 20 (a) Assumes each commuting worker uses a private vehicle-one vehicle per worker. (b) Assumes the application of a 1.72 commuter worker to private vehicle ratio. This ratio represents selected results of a study that examined worker/vehicle ratios In major eastern u.s. power plants under construction In 1978 and 1979 (Metz. July 1981. Traffic Quarterly. Vol. 35, No.3.) (c) Assumes that 10% of this total user category will travel some portion of the Dena! i Highway during excursions. NOTE: These traffic volumes Incorporate alI of the assumptions listed In Append lx S.D • TABLE E. 5. 21: TUTAL AVERAGE DAILY TRAFFIC ON ACCESS ROAD AND DENALI HIGHWAY DURING PEAK CONSTRUCTION YEAR AND SEASON During Peaking Construction Year and Season (a) (b) Den ali Highway Case A Case 8 Cantwell to Fish Creek: DOT non-project related traffic projection Project related passenger vehicles Project support materials vehicles Project heavy trucks Total Fish Creek to Maclaren River: DOT non-project related traffic projections Project related passenger vehicles Project support materials vehicles Project heavy trucks Total Access Road Project related passenger vehicles Project support materials vehicles Project heavy trucks Total 320 (c) 489 20 70 'S'9'9" 130 (c) 489 20 70 7li9" (c) 804 20 70 "S'97i 320 (c) 303 20 70 71) 130 (c) 303 20 70 ;u (c) 618 20 70 iO'S" (a) Case A: a heaviest volume case Which assumes that commuters are using one vehicle per worker. (b) Case 8: applies a 1.72 worker per vehicle formula to the number of commutirg workers in private vehicles. (c) See Appendix 5.D for underlying assumptions. NOTES: 1. On any given day, there could be high variability in the non-project related ADT, especially Saturday and Sunday as opposed to 1'-tlnday through Friday. 2. The Alaska State Department of Transportation has projected 1990 Average Daily Traffic (ADT) on the Denali Highway independent of the Susitna Project. In the Cant ....ell to Fish Creek segment, ADT is projected to be 320 vehicles. In the Fish Creek to Maclaren River segment (access rom to the project will lie in this segment), ADT is projected to be 130 vehicles. These figures then are additive to project-generated traffic. - ~. TABLE E. 5. 22: IMPACT CF THE PRO.ICT ON PIJPULATION IN TRAPPER CREEK, 1985 -2002 Projec-t- Indueed Total ~-Base Case Population Population Year Population Influx With Project t985 263 32 295 -19B6 274 43 317 1987 285 241 526 1988 296 337 633 1989 308 378 686 t990 320 475 795 -1991 333 451 784 1992 346 31l7 733 1993 360 288 648 1994 375 250 625 1995 390 227 617 1996 406 247 653 1997 422 278 700 1998 439 306 745 1999 456 314 770 2000 474 302 776 2001 493 256 749 2002 513 212 72S Source: Projections by Frank Orth and Associates, Inc. - r Year 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 TABLE E.5.23: IMPACT OF THE PROJECT ON POPULATION IN TALKEETNA, 1985 -2002 Base Case Population 780 820 862 906 952 1000 1051 1104 1160 1219 1281 1347 1415 1487 1563 1642 1726 1814 Project- Induced Population Influx 25 33 174 237 267 335 323 294 250 233 222 229 240 253 257 251 230 209 Total Population With Project 805 853 1036 1143 1219 1335 1374 1398 1410 1452 1503 1576 . 1655 1740 1820 1893 1956 2023 Source: Projections by Frank Orth and Associates, Inc. - - - - TABLE E.5.25: ONSITE CONSTRUCTION AND OPERATIONS MANPOWER REQUIREMENTS, 1985-2005(a) Construction 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Laborers 562 843 1279 1693 1897 2369 2202 1723 894 549 338 539 844 1076 1144 1002 507 105 Semi-Skilled/Skilled 148 323 355 448 502 627 583 422 220 136 92 148 230 295 312 308 234 24 Administrative/Engineering 390 184 268 359 402 502 467 355 185 115 71 115 176 229 243 187 159 22 ------ Subtotal Construction 1100 1350 1902 2500 2801 3498 3252 2500 1299 800 501 802 1250 1600 1699 1497 900 151 Operations & Maintenance <At I Labor Categories) 70 145 145 145 145 145 145 145 145 170 170 170 170 TOTAL 1100 1350 1902 2500 2801 3498 3252 2500 1369 945 646 947 1395 1745 1844 1642 1045 321 170 170 170 (a) Supplied by Acres American Incorporated. ._] J ] J . .~ -1 ) l TABLE E.5.26: ONSITE CONSTRUCTION WORK FORCE: REGIONAL, ALASKA NON-REGIONAL, AND OUT-QF-STATE, 1985-2002 REGIONAL Laborers ( 85%) Semi-Skilled/Skilled (80%> Administrative/Engineering (65%> Subtotal Construction ALASKA NON-REGIONAL Laborers ( 5%) Sern I -5k II I ed/Sk II I ed < 5%) Administrative/Engineering <5%) Subtotal Alaska Non-Regional our CF STATE Laborers < 1 0%> Semi-Skilled/Skilled (15%) Administrative/Engineering <30%> Subtota I Out-of -State Total Non-Regional TOTAL 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 478 717 1087 1439 1612 2014 1872 1465 760 467 287 458 717 915 972 852 431 118 258 284 359 402 502 466 337 176 109 254 120 174 233 261 326 304 231 120 75 74 118 184 236 250 246 187 46 75 114 149 158 122 103 89 19 14 850 1094 1545 2031 2276 2842 2642 2033 1056 650 407 651 1016 1299 1380 1220 722 122 28 7 20 55 56 22 117 42 16 9 67 64 18 13 85 22 18 95 118 110 25 31 29 20 25 23 86 21 18 95 125 140 175 163 125 84 128 169 190 237 220 172 48 53 6 7 75 94 87 63 55 80 108 121 151 140 107 45 11 9 65 89 33 56 27 7 6 40 55 20 35 195 188 262 344 386 482 448 342 178 11!.' 250 255 357 469 526 656 610 467 243 150 17 5 4 25 34 14 21 27 7 6 40 54 22 35 42 11 9 62 54 15 11 80 57 16 12 85 50 15 9 75 84 1 08 1 1 4 1 00 34 44 47 46 53 69 73 56 25 12 8 45 51 35 48 69 111 172 221 234 202 134 --- 94 151 234 301 319 277 179 5 7 11 4 7 21 28 1100 1350 1902 2500 2801 3498 3252 2500 1299 800 501 802 1250 1600 1699 1497 900 151 ..... 1 TABLE E.5.27: OPERATIONS WORK FORCE: 1993-2005 YEAR 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Activity Watana (680 MW) 30 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 Watana (340 MW) 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 Devil Canyon (600 MW) 25 25 25 25 Disptach Control 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 TOTAL 70 145 145 145 14 5 145 145 145 145 170 170 170 170 Source: Acres American Incorporated. _j .J J -1 1 TABLE E.5.28: ONSITE CONSTRUCTION AND OPERATIONS MANPOWER REQUIREMENTS -1985 TO 2002 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 CONSTRUCTION January February March Apri I May June July August September October November December PEAK CONST .IYR OPERATIONS/MAINT. SUBTOTAL -YEAR TOTAL 330 341 473 726 792 957 1089 1100 990 759 561 385 1100 405 419 581 891 972 1175 1337 1350 1215 932 689 473 1350 571 750 840 590 775 868 818 1075 1205 1255 1650 1849 1370 1800 2017 1655 2175 2437 1883 2475 2773 1902 2500 2801 1712 2250 2521 1312 1725 1933 970 1275 1429 666 875 980 1902 2500 2802 1050 1085 1504 2309 2519 3044 3463 3498 3149 2414 1784 1224 3498 976 1008 1398 2146 2341 2829 3219 3252 2927 2244 1658 1138 3251 750 775 1075 1650 1800 2175 2475 2500 2250 1725 1275 875 2500 390 402 558 857 935 1130 1285 1298 1169 896 662 454 1299 70 1100 1350 1902 2500 2802 3498 3251 2500 1369 240 248 344 528 576 696 792 800 720 552 408 280 800 145 945 151 156 217 333 363 439 499 504 454 348 257 177 504 239 247 343 527 575 694 790 798 718 551 407 279 798 145 145 649 943 NOTE: Annua I manpower requirements and trade mixes for peak years provided by Acres American, Inc. Source: Frank Orth & Associates, Inc. 376 388 539 827 902 1090 1241 1253 1128 865 639 439 1253 145 1398 479 495 686 1054 1149 1389 1581 1596 1437 1102 814 559 1596 145 1741 510 449 527 464 730 643 1121 988 1223 1077 1478 1302 1681 1481 1698 1496 1529 1347 1172 1033 866 763 594 524 1698 1496 270 45 279 47 387 65 594 100 648 109 783 131 891 149 900 151 810 136 621 104 459 77 315 53 899 151 145 145 145 170 1843 1641 1044 321 CONSTRI.CT I ON January February March April May June July August September October November December TOTAL!YR OPERATIONS/MAl NT. TOTAL/YR TOTAL PAYROLL 1985 1986 989 1022 1418 2177 2374 2869 3265 3298 2968 2275 1682 1154 25492 1214 1254 1740 2671 2913 3520 4006 4046 3642 27fJ2 2064 1416 31279 TABLE E.5.29: ONSITE CONSTRUCTION AND OPERATIONS MANPOWER -TOTAL PAYROLL, 1985 to 2002 (IN THOUSANDS OF 1982 DOLLARS> 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1710 2248 2519 3146 2924 1767 2323 2603 3251 3021 2451 3222 3610 4509 4191 3763 4945 5541 6921 6433 4105 5395 6045 7550 7018 4960 5644 5701 5131 3934 2908 1995 6519 7418 7493 6744 5170 3822 2623 7305 8312 8396 7556 5793 4282 2939 44070 57922 64901 9123 8479 10381 9649 10486 9747 9437 8772 7235 6725 5348 4971 3670 3411 81055 75341 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 2248 2323 3223 4946 5396 1183 1222 1695 2602 2839 719 743 1031 1583 1727 6520 3430 2086 7419 3903 2374 7494 3943 2398 6745 3548 2158 5171 2720 1655 3822 2011 1223 2623 1 380 839 57930 30477 18537 470 486 674 1035 1129 1364 1552 1567 1411 1082 799 549 12116 745 770 1068 1639 1787 2160 2458 2483 2234 1713 1266 869 19191 1169 1490 1208 1539 1676 2135 2572 3277 2806 3575 3391 4320 3858 4916 3897 4965 3507 4469 2689 3426 1988 2532 1364 1738 30125 38382 2759 5715 5715 5715 5715 5715 1999 2000 2001 2002 1585 1396 839 1637 1443 867 2271 2001 1203 3486 3072 1847 3803 3351 2015 4596 5229 5282 4754 3645 2694 1849 40831 4049 2434 4608 2770 4654 2798 4189 2518 3211 1931 2374 1427 1629 979 35977 21628 141 146 202 310 338 409 465 410 423 324 239 164 3630 5715 5715 5715 6699 254fJ2 31279 44070 57922 64901 81055 75341 57930 33236 24252 17831 24~6 35840 44097 46546 41692 27343 10329 NOTE: Annual manpower requirements and trade mixes for peak years provided by Acres American, Inc. Source: Frank Orth & Associates, Inc. J J _) -_j --_ _j ] J J TOTAL REG I ON Anchorage Subarea Anchorage Ma't•Su Kenai-Cook Inlet Seward Fa lrbanks SE Fairbanks Valdez-Chitina-Whittier Mat-Su Communities Palmer Wasilla Houston Trapper Creek Talkeetna Other 1 ] TABLE E.5.30: ONSITE CONSTRUCTION WORK FORCE: CUMULATIVE PROJECT EMPLOYMENT AND RESIDENCE OF INDIYIDUALS CURRENTLY RESIDING IN THE REGION ~ 1986 ~ .1988 1989 ..!22.Q_ 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 ~ 2000 2001 2002 850 1094 1545 2031 2276 2842 2642 2033 1056 650 407 651 1016 1299 1380 1220 722 122 640 835 1171 1537 1722 2150 1999 1536 798 491 308 493 769 984 1045 926 552 493 650 906 1188 1332 1663 1546 1186 616 379 238 381 595 761 809 718 431 56 71 101 133 149 186 173 133 69 91 113 162 214 240 299 278 215 112 2 2 3 4 5 6 5 4 2 43 69 191 236 341 450 504 630 585 452 235 145 2 17 6 4 2 2 41 2 20 7 6 2 3 52 3 29 10 8 3 4 74 4 39 13 11 4 5 4 43 15 12 4 6 5 54 18 15 6 2 7 5 50 17 14 5 2 7 98 110 137 127 4 39 13 11 4 5 98 2 20 7 6 2 3 51 12 4 3 0 2 31 27 43 43 66 85 90 79 68 107 137 145 127 2 3 3 2 47 74 90 144 225 287 305 267 154 8 3 2 0 20 12 4 3 0 2 31 2 19 7 5 2 3 49 2 25 8 7 3 3 63 3 26 9 7 3 4 66 2 23 9 6 2 3 59 13 5 4 0 2 34 92 71 8 13 0 27 0 2 0 0 0 6 Source: Forecasts by Frank Orth & Associates, Inc. 1 TABLE E.5.31: ONSITE CONSTRUCTION WORK FORCE: CUMULATIVE IN-MIGRATION AND PLACE OF RELOCATION IN THE REGION TOTAL REGION Anchorage Subare~ Anchorage Mat-Su Kenai-cook Inlet Seward Fairbanks SE FaIrbanks Valdez-Ghltina-Whittier Mat-Su Communities Palmer Wasilla Houston Trapper Creek Talkeetna Other 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 26 -10 -25 -33 -33 -33 -23 -20 -26 -43 -66 64 85 36 46 51 63 49 49 19 27 2 0 15 0 0 7 7 10 65 85 112 125 156 145 IV ~ ~ 00 00 00 ~ 00 ~ n ~ 26 -92 -123 -139 -176 -179 -184 -192 -195 -197 -197 -197 -194 -194 -195 -199 -204 36 189 251 282 354 346 334 315 308 303 303 303 309 310 307 298 286 3 -12 -16 -18 -22 -23 -24 -25 -26 -27 -27 -27 -26 -26 -26 -27 -28 0 ·0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 0 0 2 9 9 13 -49 0 0 8 9 8 47 47 70 -66 0 0 10 13 10 63 63 93 -74 0 0 -93 0 0 11 14 14 18 11 14 70 88 70 88 104 131 -96 -101 0 0 0 0 14 17 14 87 87 128 13 17 13 84 84 124 -108 -111 0 0 0 0 13 16 13 79 79 117 12 15 12 77 77 114 -113 -113 -113 -111 -110 -111 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 15 12 76 76 112 12 15 12 76 76 112 12 15 12 76 76 112 12 15 12 77 77 114 12 16 12 78 78 115 12 15 12 77 77 113 -115 -120 0 .0 0 0 12 15 12 74 74 110 11 14 11 71 71 106 Source: Forecasts by Frank Orth & Associates, Inc. ) _______ j -] --J .... -I I ,, .... - - , ..... .... r TABLE E.5.32: RESIDENCE OF CONSTRUCTION AND OPERATION WORKERS ON AND OFFSITE 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 (a) (b) Construction Construction Workers Workers Residing In Residing at Work Operations Workers Rai I belt or (b) ResidIng Permanently Total (a) Camps and Fam i I y at Fam I I y V i I I age Work Cantwell VI II age at Dams ites at Damsite Force 952 148 0 1100 1226 124 0 1350 1556 346 0 1902 2043 457 0 2500 2292 509 0 2801 2862 636 0 3498 2650 602 0 3252 2011 489 0 2500 1004 295 70 1369 606 194 145 945 317 184 145 646 565 237 145 947 937 313 145 1395 1229 371 145 1745 1313 386 145 1844 1131 366 145 1642 694 206 145 1045 116 35 170 321 Includes present residents and in-migrants. These workers will reside permanently in the Railbelt or Cantwell and temporarily at the work camps wh II e on-the-Job. • Some of these workers will reside temporarily at the work camps and permanently at res i dances I ocated outs Ide of the Ra II be It and Cantwel I, while others will reside permanently at the vii lage. Source: Frank Orth & Associates . J TABLE E.5.33: TOTAL REGIONAL EMPLOYMENT: ONSITE CONSTRUCTION, AND SUPPORT BY PLACE OF RESIDENCE(a) 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 TOTAL REGION 1536 2052 2632 3601 4050 5073 4736 3481 1483 701 206 705 1492 2089 2260 2060 1045 241 Anchoraqe Subarea 1243 1678 2217 3052 3432 4300 3982 2922 1243 588 172 592 1259 1764 1908 1727 891 198 Anchoraqe 991 1347 1557 2140 2405 3010 2771 2037 872 416 123 419 896 1251 1353 1222 629 154 Mat-Su Kenai-cook Inlet Seward Fairbanks SE Fairbanks Valdez-Ghitlna-whlttier Mat-Su Canmun I ties Pa I mer Wasilla Houston Trapper Creek Talkeetna Other 136 180 473 665 749 943 869 633 263 121 114 147 183 242 272 342 337 249 105 49 2 3 3 5 5 7 6 4 2 272 349 379 501 563 705 692 51 3 220 1 05 2 19 12 10 4 2 24 16 13 5 3 33 32 29 10 4 44 44 41 13 4 49 50 47 15 5 62 62 59 19 5 57 57 54 19 4 42 42 40 13 2 18 18 16 5 14 20 120 168 190 239 220 160 66 17 23 121 169 191 240 221 161 67 84 112 185 259 292 368 338 246 102 8 8 7 2 30 31 47 34 122 258 366 397 354 177 1 4 49 1 03 1 44 1 56 1 48 72 0 2 3 3 3 31 1 05 214 299 323 305 1 51 0 2 2 2 8 9 13 8 8 7 2 2 17 18 16 5 2 24 25 23 7 2 2 26 25 27 24 24 22 8 7 31 65 93 100 90 31 66 93 1 01 91 47 101 143 155 138 12 12 10 4 46 46 71 (a) Excludes employment of workers llvinq in Cantwell and employment of workers who maintain permanent res ldence at the vi llaqe or outside the region. Source: Forecasts by Frank Orth & Associates, Inc • -J _] ) 1 _] ___ ] J 27 16 0 40 0 3 3 0 6 6 10 ) 1 TABLE E.5.34: TOTAL IN-MIGRATION AND OUT-MIGRATION IN THE REGION: ONSITE CONSTRUCTION AND SUPPORT(a) TOTAL REGION Anchorage Subarea Anchorage Mat-Su Kenai-Cook Inlet Seward Fairbanks SE Fairbanks Valdez-chitina-Whittier Mat-Su Communities Palmer Was lila Houston Trapper Creek Talkeetna Other 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 230 310 340 480 539 675 621 446 169 60 -9 52 152 237 261 232 88 -42 200 270 367 517 581 728 674 515 263 165 102 158 251 329 351 322 193 80 155 210 121 179 201 250 213 104 -68 -136 -179 -138 -66 -12 3 -.17 -107 -182 38 7 0 29 0 2 2 11 9 14 51 251 344 387 486 468 423 352 324 308 320 339. 360 366 356 323 289 9 -5 -6 -6 -7 -6 -11 -20 -24 -26 -24 -21 -19 -18 -18 -23 -27 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 38 -30 -40 -46 -58 -57 -72 -96 -105 -111 -107 -101 -94 -92 -93 -106 -117 0 2 2 2 2 15 11 18 0 2 9 11 8 0 3 12 15 11 0 3 14 16 12 0 4 17 20 15 0 4 17 20 15 0 3 15 19 14 0 13 17 13 0 13 16 12 0 0 12 15 12 0 13 15 12 0 13 16 12 0 2 14 17 13 0 2 14 17 13 0 2 13 16 13 0 12 15 12 0 0 12 14 11 85 119 133 168 159 137 101 87 79 86 97 108 111 107 90 73 61 83 93 117 113 1 03 87 81 77 79 83 88 89 8 7 80 72 78 105 118 148 144 135 121 116 113 114 117 121 122 120 114 106 (a) Excludes employment of workers living In Cantwell and employment of workers who maintain residences outside the region or at the vIllage. Source: Forecasts by Frank Orth & Associates, Inc. TOTAL REGION Anchorage Subarea Anchorage Mat-Su Kenai-Cook Inlet Seward Fairbanks SE Fa lrbanks Valdez-Chitina-Whittier Mat-Su Communities Palmer Was lila Houston Trapper Creek Talkeetna other TABLE E.5.35: TOTAL POPULATION INFLUX AND EFFLUX: DIRECT AND SUPPORT(a) 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 651 874 950 1338 1498 1867 1713 1225 458 158 -30 133 400 629 691 609 224 -113 565 761 1033 1449 1624 2027 1873 1430 735 463 293 443 692 900 957 876 530 227 435 589 325 482 537 663 556 254 -219 -405 -523 -411 -219 -75 -36 -92 -333 -532 110 146 721 985 1107 1389 1337 1210 1013 937 891 924 975 1032 1047 1021 930 837 20 0 26 -14 -18 -19 -24 -20 -35 -59 -69 -75 -70 -63 -56 -54 -54 -67 -79 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 82 107 -89 -120 -136 -173 -171 -213 -280 -306. -323 -312 -295 -276 -271 -273 -309 -341 0 4 5 5 4 32 25 40 0 5 0 6 0 8 0 9 12 0 11 0 8 0 3 0 2 0 0 0 2 0 3 0 5 0 5 0 6 0 3 0 6 26 35 39 49 48 4~ 39 37 35 36 37 39 39 39 36 33 7 31 42 47 59 57 54 48 46 44 45 46 48 48 47 44 42 5 23 31 35 44 42 40 37 36 35 35 36 37 37 36 35 33 43 241 337 378 475 451 387 288 250 227 247 278 306 314 302 256 212 33 174 237 267 335 323 294 250 233 222 229 240 253 257 251 230 209 52 226 303 341 427 415 390 351 336 327 331 338 349 352 346 328 308 (a) Excludes population Influx and efflux for Cantwell and the population Influx and efflux associated with workers who maintain permanent residences at the village or outside the region. Source: Forecasts by Frank Orth & Associates, Inc. J -J J J J J I 1 ~---1 1 l ) 1 1J TABLE E.5.36: TOTAL POPULATION INFLUX AND EFFLUX ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIRECT CONSTRUCTION WORK FORCE (a) TOTAL REGION Anchorage Subarea Anchorage Mat-Su Kenai-cook Inlet Seward Fairbanks SE Fairbanks Valdez-Ghltlna-Whlttler Mat-Su Communities Palmer Wasilla Houston Trapper Creek Talkeetna Other 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 185 247 104 134 149 183 14,1 75 -29 -71 -97 -97 -97 -65 -57 -75 -125 -192 142 188 246 324 363 452 420 367 284 251 231 231 231 256 262 248 209 156 56 76 -266 -357 -403 -509 -518 -533 -555 -565 -570 -570 -570 -564 -562 -565 -577 -591 79 103 548 727 817 1026 1004 969 914 892 878 878 878 895 899 889 864 828 6 0 43 0 0 3 4 3 20 20 29 9 -36 -46 -52 -64 -66 -69 -74 -76 -77 -77 -77 -75 -75 -76 -78 -81 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 59 -142 -190 -214 -270 -278 -292 -313 -322 -328 -328 -328 -321 -320 -323 -334 -348 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 22 29 33 41 40 39 37 36 35 35 35 36 36 36 35 33 5 27 36 41 51 50 48 46 45 44 44 44 45 45 44 43 41 4 22 29 33 41 40 39 37 36 35 35 35 36 36 36 35 33 26 137 182 204 256 251 242 228 223 220 220 220 224 225 222 216 207 26 137 182 204 256 251 242 228 223 220 220 220 224 225 222 216 207 38 203 269 302 379 372 359 338 330 325 325 325 331 333 329 320 307 (a) Excludes population Influx and efflux for Cantwell and the population Influx and efflux associated with workers who maintain permanent residences at the village or outside the region. Source: Frank Orth & Associates, Inc. . .. l - - TABLE E.5.37: EMPLOYMENT AND POPUlATION EFFECTS IN CANTWELL: CASES A & B CumtJiatlve Cumulative Population Cumulative Resl dent In-migrant lnf I ux Associated Total ....,, Employment Construction with In-MIgrant Popula(iyn on Project Workers Construction Workers Influx a CASE - B A B A 8 A B A Year _!:!_!_@_ Low .!i.!.9.!!. Low _!:!_!_@_ Low .!!!..a!!. Low 1985 19 19 129 113 276 230 430 230 1986 19 19 138 113 302 230 455 230 1987 20 20 168 75 550 165 638 255 1988 20 20 209 79 686 178 774 255 -1989 20 20 233 80 756 184 843 255 1990 20 20 287 85 916 198 999 255 1991 20 20 282 84 898 197 984 255 1992 20 20 274 83 875 194 961 255 1993 20 20 260 82 834 190 920 255 1994 20 20 255 53 761 130 794 163 1995 20 20 216 53 753 129 785 162 1996 20 20 216 53 753 129 785 162 1997 20 20 216 53 753 129 785 162 -1998 20 20 219 53 761 130 793 162 1999 20 20 220 53 764 130 796 162 2000 20 20 217 53 755 130 788 162 2001 20 20 210 52 735 128 767 160 2002 20 20 202 51 712 125 744 157 (a} Includes the population Influx associated with both in-migrant -construction workers and in-migrant support workers. - - - TAB LE E. 5. 38: IMPACT rF THE SUS IT~ HYrROELECTRIC fROJECT ON HOUS lNG DEMAND IN THE LOCAL IMPACT AREA OURt.NG THE WATANO. ,.. .. CONSTRUCTION PHASE Cumulative Projected Base I ine Project-Induced Total F"" Housing Project ion of Influx of Housinq Stock Househo1 ds Households Demand Total Mat-Su Borough 1985 11,730 9, rn.7 38 9,905 1986 12,868 1 0, 916 51 1 o, 967 1987 14, 095 11,986 251 12,237 1988 .15, 121 12,910 344 1 3, 254 -1989 16, 092 13, 788 387 14, 175 1990 lu, 754 14,417 486 14,903 1991 17,728 15,354 468 1 5, 822 1992 18,574 16, 156 423 16,57 9 1993 19,761 17,245 352 17~ 597 Trapper Creek 1985 84 83 11 94 ,..... 1986 88 87 15 102 1987 93 92 i35 177 1988 98 97 119 216 1989 103 102 133 235 !""" 1990 108 107 168 275 ' 1991 1'14 112 159 271 ' 19m. 119 118 137 255 1993 126 124 1 01 225 Talkeetna 1985 251 246 9 255 1986 267 262 11 273 -1987 284 278 61 339 1988 302 296 83 379 1989 320 314 93 407 1990 340 334 111 451 1991 362 355 113 458 19m. 385 377 103 480 1993 409 401 87 488 Cantwell r 1985 97 71 126 197 i 1986 99 72 135 207 1987 100 73 208 281 1988 102 75 255 330 1989 103 76 279 355 ~ 990 105 78 333 411 1991 107 80 328 -408 19m. 108 81 320 401 1993 110 83 306 389 Source: -Forecasts by Frank Orth & -Associ ate$, Inc. -I TABlE E.5.39: IMPACT 0: THE SUS I TNA. HYDROELECTRIC ffiOJECT ON HOUSING DEMAND IN THE LOCAL IMPACT AREA DLRING THE WATANI'. OPERATION AND DEVIL CANYON CONSTRUCTION PHASE - Cumulative Projected Baseline Proj ect -I nd uc ed Total """! Housing Projection of lnf I ux of Houslnq Stock Households Households Demand Total Mat-Su Borough 1994 20, 821 18,235 324 18,559 1995 22,043 19,3 71 308 19,679 1996 23,278 20, 528 320 20, 848 1997 24,719 21,885 339 22,224 -1998 26,048 23, 145 360 23,505 1999 27,672 24,670 366 24,036 2000 29,207 26,095 356 26,451 2001 30,626 27,373 323 27,696 2002 32, 115 28,71 5 289 28,004 Tra(!l!er Creek 1994 132 131 89 218 ~ 1995 139 138 79 217 1996 147 145 86 231 1997 155 153 97 250 1998 153 151 108 259 1990 171 159 111 280 m!ll 2000 180 178 107 285 2001 187 186 90 275 2002 195 193 73 255 -Talkeetna 1994 435 426 81 507 1995 462 453 77 530 1996 492 482 79 561 """! 1997 523 513 83 595 1998 557 546 88 634 1999 592 581 87 670 2000 630 618 80 705 -2001 552 650 72 730 2002 696 683 65 755 Cant-ell ~ 1994 112 84 267 351 1995 114 86 264 350 1996 115 88 254 352 1997 118 89 264 353 -1998 120 91 264 358 1999 122 93 254 361 2000 124 95 264 360 2001 126 97 258 355 2002 128 99 250 349 - Source: Forecasts by Frank Orth & Associates, Inc. - .... - - - - - TABLE E.5.40: SUPPORT JOBS CREATED IN THE REGION, MAT-SU BOROUGH AND CANTWELL BY THE PROJECT, 1985-2002 Year 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Rai I belt Region Mat-Su Borough and Cantwel I 731 984 1258 1788 Watana Construction 2010 2518 2383 1751 136 163 312 445 499 622 581 460 746 270 353 198 103 135 355 178 770 Devil. Canyon Construction 246 1078 301 1166 317 1079 295 550 204 125 123 TABLE E.5.41: EMPLOYMENT IMPACTS IN THE REGION AND MAT-SU BOROUGH, 1985-2005 Year 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Total Jobs Created in the Region 1831 2334 3160 4288 4811 6016 5635 4251 2115 1298 749 1302 2165 2823 3010 2721 1595 446 170 170 170 Forecast of Jobs for the Reqion: (a) Base Case 179,636 194,212 200,610 200,912 202,596 200, 111 202,128 202,846 205,872 208,791 212,050 216,576 221,561 226, 54 7 232,311 237,812 243,344 249,007 254,808 260,749 266, 835 Reqional Jobs Created as a Percent of Total Base Case Reqional Jobs 1% 1% 2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% u 1% 1% 1% 1% Neg I i q ible Neq I lq ible Neqliqlble Neq I iq lble Total Jobs Createrl In the Mat-Su (a l Borough 1162 1434 2123 2830 3173 3966 3682 2813 1499 1005 663 1007 1523 1926 2041 1818 1134 133 170 170 170 Forecast of Jobs in the Mat-S u Borouqh: Base Case 5442 5975 6373 6641 6858 6914 7135 7296 7550 7806 8076 8403 8755 9107 9505 9897 10308 10733 11176 11636 12116 (a) Created as a direct or Indirect result of the Susitna Project. Source: Forecasts by Frank Orth & Associates, Inc. Borouqh Jobs Created as a Percent of Total Base Case Borough Jobs 21% 24% 33% 43~ 46~ 57% 52% 39% 20% 13% 8% 12% 17% 21% 21% 18% 11% 31 2% 1% u J .J .... TABLE E.5.42: MAT-SU BOROUGH SERVICE AREAS REVENUE FORECASTS ($ mi II ion) Without the With the Year Pro,ject Project 'f, Impact 1981 1. 5 '1. 5 1985 1. 7 1. 8 6. 0 -19~ 2.7 3.4 25.9 1994 3.1 3. 9 25.8 1999 3. 7 4. 7 27.0 2002 4.2 5.2 23.8 Source: Frank Orth & Associates, Inc. 1982 - - TABLE E.5.43: MAT-SU BOROUGH BUDGET FORECASTS (In millions of 1982 dollars) GENERAL FUNDS SERVICE AREAS FUNDS LAND MANAGEMENT FUNDS SCHOOL DISTRICT FUNDS Without the . With the 'f, Without the With the 'f, Without the With the 'f, Without the With the 'f, Project Project lmeact Pro,ject Pro,ject lmeact Project Pro,ject I meact Project Project I m(!act Revenues: 1981 15.7 15.7 1. 5 1.5 0.9 0.9 24.6 24.6 1985 19.5 19.7 1.0 1.7 1.8 6.0 1.3 1.3 35.5 35.6 0.3 1990 28.0 29.0 3.6 2.7 3.4 25.9 1.9 2.0 5.3 50.3 53.4 6.2 1994 33.1 33.8 2.1 3.1 3.9 25.8 2.3 2.3 62.1 64.6 4.0 1999 41.0 41.9 2.2 3.7 4.7 27.0 2.9 3.0 3.4 80.9 83.5 3.2 2002 46.5 47.4 1.9 4.2 5.2 23.8 3.3 3.4 3.0 93.4 95.1 1.8 Expenditures: 1981 17.2 17.2 4.4 4.5 1. 1 I. 1 27.1 27.1 1985 24.1 24.2 0.4 6.4 6.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 41.3 41.5 0.5 1990 33.1 34.2 3.3 9.4 9.6 2.1 2.2 2.2 61. 1 65.1 6.5 1994 40.1 40.8 1.7 11.7 11.9 1.7 2.7 2.7 76.1 79.5 4.5 1999 51.2 51.9 1.4 15.9 16.1 1.3 3.4 3.5 2.9 100.3 103.8 3.8 2002 58.8 59.4 1.0 19.2 19.3 0.5 3.9 4.0 2.6 116.4 118.6 1.9 Source: Frank Orth & Associates, Inc. 1982 J J TABLE E.5.44: MAT-SU BOROUGH SCHOOL-AGE CHILDREN FORECASTS - Baseline Project Associated Tota I Schoo I Age Year Pro,jectlon School Po2ulatlon Po2ulatlon At Onslte In the General VIllage Po2ulatlon 1990 1 o, 011 300 359 10,670 I"'" 1994 12,4 77 300 249 13,026 1999 16,452 300 277 17,029 !"'" 2002 19,074 150 223 19,477 Source: Projections by Frank Orth & Associates, Inc. - TABLE E.5.45: UPPER COOK INLET ANNUAL COMMERCIAL CATCH AND VALUE(a) Ten Year Annt~a I Average Spec1es 1973 -1982 Chinook Sockeye Coho Pink Average Annual Catch (no. of fish) 11,794 1,537,853 296,784 750,650 Average Annual Catch (no of pounds) 348,136 9,173,314 1,509, 155 2,836,288 Average Annual Ex-vessel Value $449,844 $10,717,244 $1,316,878 $968,993 (a) Upper Cook In let Includes catch from the Northern and Central Districts. Value ls In 1982 dollars. Chum 760,4fi8 4,940,850 $3,145,970 Source: Calculated by frank Orth & Associates, Inc., February 1983. The Alaska Department of Fish and Game provided cat~h statistics from fts current October 1982 IBM f I I es and from the December reports to the Board of Fisheries. Average size per fish was provided by the Soldotna office of AOF&G (October 1982). Cook Inlet ex-vessel price data was obtained from the Alaska Commercial Fisheries ~ntry Commission. - - .~ - I""' 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 (a} ' TABLE E.5.46: COOK INLET COMMERCIAL SALI.()N PERMIT USE DRIFT GILLNET SET GILLNET Permanent Permanent< a> Permits Used Permits In Effect Permits Used Permits In Effect 438 453 530 657 472 5T4 521 712 501 539 524 737 537 549 581 742 556 554 581 744 513 554 571 744 576 554 585 744 Permanent permits In effect Include both revenued and non-revenued permits. Discrepancies reflect Interim use permits utilized In the fishery. Data tor 1980 and 1981 are preliminary. There are cases pending which may alter permit numbers In the future. Source: Commercial Fisheries Entry Commission TABLE E.5.47: ESTIMATED POTENTIAL LOSSES TO THE UPPER COOK INLET COMMERCIAL FISHERY -CASE 1 Estimated Escapement Above T a I keetna Estimated Potential Loss (Numbers of FIsh )(a) (In 1982 $) (b) 1981 1982 1981 1982 Sockeye 4,809 3,126 117,724 70,147 Pink 2,335 73,057 12,813 200,439 Chum 20,835 49,197 214,517 467,568 Coho 3,306 5, 143 37,428 45,598 (a) (b) Potential losses are estimated using the 1981 and 1982 e~apement levels above Talkeetna. Potential losses are estimated under a number of assumptions, described In the text, which may or may not be valid. One Important assumption is a worst case-post project loss of 100 percent above Talkeetna. Harvest to escapement ratios developed by Freise (1975) were used. These are: chums 2.2 to 1; sockeye 3.0 to l; pinks 3.8 to 1; and coho 2.2 to 1. 1981 and 1982 Cook Inlet ex-vessel salmon prices were used to calculate dollar loss. Source: Calculated by FO&A, Inc. February 1983. ~I - - ~ F"' !""" - .... !""" I !""" I -I ! .... TABLE E.5.48: ESTIMATED POTENTIAL LOSSES TO THE UPPER COOK INLET COMMERCIAL FISHERY -CASE 2 Estimated Salmon Uti I lzing Slough (b) (a) Estimated Potential Loss Habitat for Spawn I ng (I n do II ars) 1981 1982 1981 1982 Sockeye 2,315 1,402 56,671 31,461 Pink 28 735 153 2,017 Chum 3,526 3,674 36,303 34,918 (a) (b) Estimated from approximately 20 sloughs from Talkeetna to Devil Canyon (see Section 2.2.1(a)). Based on the assumption of 100 percent loss of salmon utilizing the sloughs for spawning. Harvest to escapement ratios developed by Freise (1975) were used in calculations, along with 1981 and 1982 ex-vessel salmon prices for Cook In let. Source: Calculated by Frank Orth & Associates, Inc. February 1983. TABLE E.5.49: SPORT FISH CATCH FOR MAJOR SPECIES IN THE EAST SUSITNA DRAINAGE -WEST COOK INLET -WEST SUSITNA DRAINAGE 1981 1980 1979 Species Catch Catch Catch -Chinook 7,136 7,552 7,164 Coho 13,386 23,137 10,671 Sockeye 2,289 1,984 2,577 Pinks a, 793 57,284 13,107 Chums 4,466 5,043 4,945 - Rainbow 21,843 20,060 23,081 -Dolly Varden/Arctic Char 5,835 5,771 9,136 Arctic Gray I ing 17,110 20,206 19,578 -Total Angler Days 97,189 139,429 128,596 - Source: Michael J. Mi lis Statewide Harvest Survey ADF&3 various years. - - - r"" ~ r -' r .... """ ! TABLE E.5.50: UPPER COOK INLET SUBSISTENCE SALMON CATCH(a) <Catch in Number of Fish> No. of Chinook Sockeye Coho Pink Chum Total Permits 1969 0 1, 509· 1,259 30 94 5,892 330 1970 3 1,206 2, 192 295 139 3,832 335 1971(b) 0 7 148 0 0 155 37 1972 0 4 55 27 15 101 30 1973 0 35 332 12 37 416 123 1974 1 14 291 17 2 325 109 1975 1 4 659 8 92 764 114 1976 0 21 567 113 13 714 111 1977 2 13 327 3 14 359 83 1978 5 42 3,529 128 31 3,735 323 1979 158 5,564 3,570 359 272 9,923 1, 161 1980 <c) 2,268 5,459 3,912 4,842 492 16,973 1,396 1981 (e) 2, 072 587 11,7 52 93 237 14,741 1, 178 (a) (b) (c) (d) (e) {f) Includes the Central District and Northern District. Knik Arm closed to subsistence fishing. Household permits were issued starting in 1980, whereas individual permits were issued prior to 1980. Includes 85 permits issued for special openings of the Central District and 65 permits issued for the special king salmon fishery at Tyonek. Pre I imi nary data. There were 1,108 non-commercial set net permits issued in the Central District. The Tyonek fishery, with 70 permits, was the only subsistence fishery allowed in the Northern District in 1981. Source: Alaska Department of Fish and Game, Soldotna Regional Office, May 1982 • TABLE E.5.51: MOOSE HARVEST AND HUNTING PRESSURE IN GMU 13 YEAR HUNTERS HARVEST 1970 3,534 1,391 1971 4,881 1,814 1972 3, 199 712 1973 2,513 618 1974 2, 770 794 1975 2,978 715 1976 3,122 732 1977 2,299 698 1978 3,034 863 1979 2,377 848 1980 2, 859 557 1981 3,105 794 Source: Alaska Department of Fish and Game, Division of Game, March 1980. Annual Report of Survey Inventory Activities, Part I I and other ADF&G files. - - - - - - - .~ - ~i - ""'" TABLE E.5.52: TRAPPER EXPORTS AND DEALER PURCHASES OF FURBEARER PELTS IN GAME MANAGEMENT UNIT 13 2 1977 -1980 i TRAPPER EXPORTS 1977 1978 1979 1980 Species -Beaver 47 24 51 48 Mink 56 105 140 163 Muskrat 525 762 632 473 Marten 61 119 194 102 Otter 3 2 10 10 White fox 2 0 11 Other fox 146 302 192 207 Weasel 3 38 29 2 Lynx 78 60 42 53 Number of Trappers 40 57 62 39 -Source: Alaska Department of Fish and Game data for Game Management Unit 13. I - ~ I I""' I I - - - -I I""" I ALASKA GULF OF ALASKA SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACT AREAS LEGEND n::::r:tr:::~ LOCAL IMPACT AREA ~ REGIONAL IMPACT t;,;~ AREA D STATEWIDE IMPACT AREA (STATE OF ALASKA) FIGURE E.5.1 -· - ~ - !"""' ~ - - - - - - 3500 Q 3000 &&.1 >-9 2500 a. :E 1&.1 2000 ~ 0 tn II: 1&.1 ID 2 ~ z 1&.1 ..J a. 0 &&.1 a. ~ 0 tn 0 z C[ tn ~ 0 :t: ~ tn II: C[ ..J 6 0 ~ 0 1500 1000 500 1970 71 20 15 10 5 1970 71 10 9 8 7 6 5 EMPLOYMENT 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 POPULATION 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 PER CAPITA PERSONAL INCOME tn 0 z 4 L..-..---- ~ ~ 0 :t: ~ 3 2 YEAR 79 80 YEAR 79 80 YEAR 1970 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 EMPLOYMENT, POPULATION AND PER CAPITA PERSONAL INCOME tN THE MATANUSKA- SUSITNA BOROUGH, 1970-1980 FIGURE E. 5. 2 ~~~ - !""'' - -I - 0 LLI >-0 ...J a.. ::::E LLI IL. 0 en 0 z <( en :::::l 0 ::c ..... LLI ...J a.. 0 125 100 75 50 25 300 ~ 200 IL. 0 en 0 z 100 <( en :::::l 0 ~ 1970 71 1970 71 12 II en 10 a:: <( 9 ...J ...J 8 0 0 7 IL. 6 0 en 5 0 4 z 3 <( en :::::l 2 0 ::c ..... 1970 71 EMPLOYMENT 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 POPULATION 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 PER CAPITA PERSONAL INCOME 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 YEARS 80 YEARS 80 80 YEARS EMPLDYMENT, POPULATION AND PER CAPITA PERSONAL INCOME IN THE RAILBELT REGION FIGURE E.5.3 ~------------------------------------------------·--------------------------~ ~ !""' I ,. ... - EMPLOYMENT 200 0 w >-150 0 _.J Cl... ::E w [J_ 0 100 (f) 0 z <( (f) :::> 0 50 :I: 1-- POPULATION 450 400 w _.J Cl... 0 350 w Cl... [J_ 300 0 (f) 0 z 250 <( (f) :::> 0 200 :I: 1-- 1970 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 YEARS PER CAPITA PERSONAL INCOME' 12 II (f) 10 0::: <( 9 _.J _.J 8 0 0 7 [J_ 6 0 5 (f) 4 0 z 3 <( (f) 2 :::> 0 :I: 1-- 1970 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 18 79 80 YEARS EMPLOYMENT, POPULATION AND PER CAPITA PERSONAL INCOME IN THE STATE OF ALASKA,I970-1980 FIGURE E.5.4 1 J .. 1 3500 3000 fiJ 2500 1-z LLI :e ~ 2000 ::l a LLI a:: LLI (.) a:: 1500 0 IL. ~ a:: 0 ~ tbbo 500 ' 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 9'7 98 99 2000 01 02 b3 04 05 YEAR ON-SITE CONSTRUCTION AND OPERATION WORK FORCE REQUIREMENTS FIGURE E.5 .5 - - - - - - - ALEUTIAN ISLANDS ALASKA GAME MANAGEMENT UNITS SOURCE:-MODIFIED FROM AOFSG,ANNUAL REPORT OF SURVEY -INVENTORY ACTIVITIES 1980 FIGURE E.5.7 -· r I - \ \ \ ) I \ --""" / , -- 130 GAME MANAGEMENT UNITS tN THE VICINITY OF THE PROJECT 12 FIGURE E.5.8 l SOURCE MODIFIED FROM ADFaG, 1982; 81G GAME STUDIES VOLUME Ill -] . ., J ] BIG GAME IMPACT STUDY AREA-1980 STUDIES LAKE LOUfSE FIGURE E.5.9 ] l J _,..-. ......._ . ·..__.r·~. /_./ \ i ( ~~~~1Ciiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii:l20 MILES SCALE c:: MOOSE STUDY AREA -1955 THROUGH 1980 SOURCE:AOOPTED FROM ADF a G 1982, BIG GAME STUDIES VOLUME JII: l. "'\ \ ~ ·-. c-~ ('""". ~ ...... \--- \ ...-) l FIGURE E.5.10 - - - -I .... .... APPENDIX E5A Elaboration on Approach, Assumptions and Methods - APPENDIX 5.A . ELABORATION ON APPROACH, ASSUMPTIONS, AND METHODS This appendix is intended to provide (a) an overview of the approach to conducting the impact assessment; (b) an overview of the impact (accounting) model; and {c) an elaboration of several assumptions made in Section 3.3. Further information can be found in Sections 5, 10, and other sections of Frank Orth & Associates (1982). (a) Approach {b) After the impact areas were defined, and as a precursor to making base case forecasts, recent and current socioeconomic conditions were analyzed. These included employment, population, income, housing, public facilities and services, local governments 1 bud- gets, land use, and other socioeconomic elements. Base case forecasts were then made for selected socioeconomic elements. A brief description of the forecasting techniques used is provided in Table 5.A.l. Forecasts were made for the years 1983-2005. Next, impact forecasts were made. An 11 accounting model 11 was developed to handle the several 1 abor categories and geographic disaggregations. This model was computerized to provide for effi- cient analysis and to make sensitivity analysis feasible. Tech- niques used for the impact forecasts are shown in Table 5. A. 2. Forecasts were made for 1983-2005. Base case and impact forecasts were compared and contrasted to identify project-induced changes in the base case. Next, the significance of these changes was analyzed and discussed. Impact Mode 1 A model was developed that could take into account settlement and travel i ngjcommuti ng patterns of construction workers. It was specified to allow for in-migration and out-migration cif workers and their dependents. These elements were emphasized because they will be the source of most of the project-induced changes. The model was computerized to make calculations more quickly and to allow for sensitivity analysis. There are likely to be some changes before construction begins in 1985, and it will be helpful to be able to quickly and efficiently determine the socioeconomic implications of these changes. E5A-1 ·--·--------· TABLE 5.A.1: BASELINE FORECASTING TECHNIQUES ELEMENT FORECASTING TECHNIQUE EMPLOYMENT State and Regional Census Division POPULATION State and Regional Census Division Community INCOME State, Regional, and Census Division HOUSING Regional and Census Division FACILITIES AND SERVICES Census Division and Community FISCAL Census Division and Community (a) (a) Time-series econometric Linear regression (a) Time-series econometric Linear regression Population Share (judgmental) Trend analysis and judgment Person per household trend multiplier Per capita planning standards Per capita multiplier Includes results from Institute of Social and Economic Research 1 S Man-in-the- Arctic Model, October, 1981. E5A-2 - - - - - - - IIJIIIIU; - TABLE 5.A.2: IMPACT FORECASTING TECHNIQUES ELEMENT EMPLOYMENT State, Regional, and Census Division State and Regional POPULATION State, Regional, and Census Division State and Regional INCOME State, Regional, and Census Division HOUSING Regional and Census Division FACILITIES AND SERVICES Census Division and Community FISCAL Census Division and Community (a) FORECASTING TECHNIQUE Accounting model Time-series econometric (for comparison purposes only)(a) Accounting model Time-series econometric (for comparison purposes only)(a) Accounting model Person per household trend multiplier Per capita planning standards Per capita multiplier Includes results from Institute of Social and Economic Research's Man-in-the- Arctic Mode 1 , October, 1981. E5A-3 - I""' I .- -i - APPENDIX ESB Public Facilities and Services ,.... i ~ I - .... APPENDIX 5.B PUBLIC FACILITIES AND SERVICES This appendix provides additional explanation of the methodology used to project impacts of the project on public faciliti.es and services. The general approach to forecasting public facility and service requirements during 1985-2005 was (1) to develop appropriate standards for each service category and for each relevant community that relate service and facility requirements to the size of population; (2) to assess the adequacy of existing facilities and services and to quantify any over-or under-capacity using these standards; and (3) to estimate future needs based on the application of these standards to the population growth forecasts with and without the Susitna project. (a) Types of Standards Standards can ·be divided into two categories--average and pre- . scriptive. Average standards are based on recent data on existing service levels on a per capita basis for a given area. Average standards may be based on national, regional, state, or local averages or on averages for a given type or size of community; their distinguishing feature is that they are based on an average of what currently exists. For some service types, there exist prescriptive standards that are set by relevant agencies or asso- ciations. These standards often vary by size, type, and community and may be of a voluntary or mandatory nature. For instance, a state government may require certain standards for health care and education; standards for fire protection based on insurance tables may be used widely. A mix of average and prescriptive standards has been used in this analysis. The objective has been to provide detailed measures of adequate service levels for those services which the local govern- ments now provide, while keeping under consideration the resource constraints that communities face. Local preferences, based upon conversations with local, state and borough officials, have been taken into account. For some fa ell it i es and services, the required 1 evel of service varies among communities, depending on factors such as the size of the community and the type of community (urban, rural, or subur- ban). In some cases, relevant standards may be based on variables other than population per se--for example, the number of dwellings or the number of school-age children. These variables are related to population levels, but the actual ratios may change over time. E5B-l Service categories such as education and cia lly sensitive to demographic changes. casts of demographic changes have been analysis. health care are espe- Where possible, fore- incorporated into the Due to the many factors that influence the needs for public faci- lities and services, the uniqueness of each community, and the s ubj ecti vi ty in deciding adequate service 1 evel s, the standards 1 i sted bel ow should not be considered absolutes but rather as general indicators. A summary of the standards used is displayed - in Table E.5B.l. In the sections below, specific considerations relating to the choice of standards are discussed. (b) Water Supply Water systems comprise three components--the supply source, the treatment facility, and the pipe di stri but ion network. The most widely used standards for water service are the average and peak water consumption per capita, in terms of gallons per day (gpd). Facility standards sometim~s include pipe length per thousand dwellings, and treatment capacity. The standards are relevant only for communities that have or are expected to develop water systems. Only two communities in the local impact area, Palmer and Wasilla, have citywide water supply systems. Other residents, including inhabitants of the communi- ties that will be most affected by the project, rely on individual wells or 11 Community 11 systems that serve a particular subdivision, trailer park or other small areas. An average per capita water consumption standard of 120 gpd (456 liters per day) in 1981 rising to 150 gpd (570 1 iters per day) by the year 2000 was used. The city of Pal mer currently has an average per capita water usage rate of 120 gpd (456 1 iters per day}, and this relatively low usage may be attributed to the small amount of industry in the area. It is expected that future growth will include an increase in business activity and, hence, a rise in per capita water consumption. (c) Sewage Treatment The amount of sewage generated is a function of the amount of water that is used daily. It has been estimated that an average of 65 percent of total water supplied becomes sewage, or 100 gpd (380 liters per day) per capita, with the remainder used for mis- cellaneous purposes such as watering 1 awns and gardens, fi refight- ing and generating steam (Stenehjem and Metzger 1980). This stan- dard may not be as appropriate for application to rural communi- ties. Sewage treatment in Palmer is currently equal to 100 per- cent of average water usage, or 120 gpd ( 456 1 iters per day) per capita. For the purposes of projections of impacts, a constant standard of 120 gpd (456 liters per day) has been used for Palmer, the only community with a sewage treatment system in the Mat-Su Borough. E5B-2 - - - - - - -(d) (e) r r Solid Waste Disposal Solid waste can be disposed through incineration or sanitary land- fill disposal; sanitary landfill has become the prevalent mode. Facility requirements for solid waste disposal can be measured in terms of the amount of land needed per capita on an annual basis. Published standards range from 0. 2 to 0. 3 acre (0. 08 to 0.12 ha) per thousand people, depending on assumptions of pounds of waste per capita, depth of the site, and the rate of compression of the waste. A lower standard of 0.11 acre (0.04 ha) per thousand population has been ass4med initially for the l~at-Su Borough, based on the premises that waste production per capita is much 1 ower and the fill depth of the central landfills is twice as high as national averages. This standard is calculated to rise to 0.21 acre (0.08 ha) by 2000 and held constant at this level between 2001 and 2005. Education The major determinant of the requirement for educational facili- ties and services is the number of school-age children per capita, modified to take into account private school attendance. Two different methodo 1 ogi es were used to estimate the number of school-age children associated with the (1) base case population and (2) in-migrant population associated with the Susitna pro- ject. Under the base case for the Mat-Su Borough, the standards that the school district uses for planning were used in this study as well. Short-term planning through 1987 uses an estimate of 22.8 percent. For long-range planning purposes, an estimate of 25 percent is used. For the purposes of this study, the ratio is assumed to rise gradually from 22.8 percent in 1987 to 25 percent in 2000 and then hold constant at that 1 evel through 2005. In Cantwell, the present 18 percent level was assumed to remain constant over time in the base case. The number of school-age children accompanying workers on the pro- ject has been estimated using a ratio that was calculated through surveys of other large projects of 0.89 school children per in- migrant worker accompanied by dependents. The number of school- age children associated with the in-migrant secondary population was calculated on the same basis as base case school-age chi 1- dren. A major service standard for education relates the number of school-age children to the number of classes and teachers. Local preferences have been used as standards in this case. In the Mat-Su Borough school district, planning standards include an optimum of 25 students per class for primary schools and 20-22 for E5B-3 secondary schools. In addition, Mat-Su Borough statistics show that teachers comprise about 50 per cent of total school district personne 1 requirements. In Cant we 11 , the Rail belt School District•s planning standard teacher-student ratio of 15:1 was used. Requirements for class room space can be measured in terms of num- ber of classrooms or, alternatively, the number of square feet per pupil (90 square feet(8 square meters) for primary school students and 150 square feet (14 square meters) for secondary school stu- dents]. For the purposes of this study, space required has been projected in numbers of classrooms. It is assumed that the present ratios of primary school students (54 percent of total) and secondary school students (46 percent of total) will remain constant. It is beyond the scope of this analysis to forecast changes in distr·ibution by school and by grade. (f) Health Care Standards for acute public health care focus on the capability of hospital facilities and staff to accommodate the expected number of patients without bui 1 ding overcapacity that wi 11 then add to hospital costs. While rule-of-thumb bed multipliers of between 2.1 and 5.8 beds per 1000 population are often used, it has become appropriate to base the number of beds on a measure of the long- term average daily census of patients using the hospital divided by the desirable occupancy rate. In Alaska, the recommended occupancy rates are 80 percent for urban hospitals and 55 percent for rural hospitals. The formulas used are: Acute Care Patient Days at ~ Borough :: Hospital Use Rate Valley Hospital Plus Days Population at Alaska and Providence for Borough Residents Hospital Use Rate X Estimated ~ 365 Days Projected Average For Borough Residents Borough in Year Da i 1 y Ce n s us Population (PADC) Projected Average X Propor-... Minimum = Valley Hospital Daily Census tion of Occupancy Acute Care Bed Bed Need for Rural Need Met at Hospital Valley Hos. (55%) A significant aspect of the hospital system in Alaska deserves note. The Municipality of Anchorage has developed a comprehensive acute and long-term health care system that provides the main ESB-4 - - - i"""1 i - '"""1 I - - -(g) - - -(h) r medical care for the residents of south-central Alaska, as well as other areas of the state. A large percentage of people living in areas such as the Mat-Su Borough, as well as "Cantwell, presently elect to use hospitals in Anchorage over the hospital in Palmer because of the larger number of doctors (especially specialists) and the more modern facilities. However, the percentage of patients that use the Valley Hospital in Palmer has been rising rapidly in recent years, and this trend is expected to be accele- rated by the planned addition to and renovation of this hospital, as well as the possible addition of certain medical specialists to the staff. It is assumed that the usage of Valley Hospital, as a percentage of total Alaskan hospital use by Mat-Su Borough resi- dents, will rise from 38 percent in 1980 to 75 percent in 2000 and remain constant at that level through 2005. Age and sex distributions of the population are important deter- minants of hospital use. For the purposes of this study, demo- graphic factors have been assumed to remain constant. Law Enforcement Police service standards range from one officer per thousand popu- lation in unincorporated rural areas to 1.5 officers per thousand population in small communities and 2 officers per thousand in moderately large cities. For rural parts of the local impact area, a standard of 1.0 officer per thousand was applied to the population projections. For the southern part of the Mat-Su Borough (outside Palmer, which has its own police force), a standard of 1.5 officers per thousand population was used; it is anticipated that the growing suburbanization of the borough will soon justify use of the increased standard. Alaska State Troopers judge the relative adequacy of their staffs in terms of the average case load (i.e. number of crimes) that each officer is charged with investigating. Six cases per trooper is considered average, and eight' is considered the level at which additional staff is needed. Currently, there is about one officer per thousand population in the borough. Fire Protection The major variables that are used to judge the fire protection are (1) the available flow of water, (2) the frequency of response, and (3) the manpower needed. There are several standards that re1ate these variables to popu- lation size in the literature. Water flow, response time or ser- vice radii, and the equipment capacity are of particular use. It is common in communities of less than 7,000 to rely on volunteer firefighters, and thus, standards for manpower are not applicable E5B-5 to the communities under study. Fire protection planning in Alaska, as in many other states, often takes the form of trying to achieve a certain fire rating as mea- sured by the Insurance Service Organization (ISO). The ISO is a national organization that rates fire protection on a scale frrnn 1 (best) to 10 (worst); fire insurance rates closely reflect these ratings. Communities without a community water system can at best achieve an ISO rating of 8 (which is the objective that the Mat-Su Borough presently hopes to achieve for its most populous fire districts). The requirements, to achieve a rating of 8 are: that dwelling class property be within five road miles of a fire station (on roads that are in good condition) and that the fire department has demonstrated its ability to deliver 200 gallons per minute (gpm) (757 liters per minute) for a period of 20 minutes without inter- ruption. The latter requirement implies a need for a capacity of 4000 gallons (15,140 liters) of water "on wheels." (i) Recreation Projected requirements for recreation facilities, in tenns of acreage for playgrounds, neighborhood parks, and community parks, were calculated by applying national standards for rural areas. Standards for playgrounds and neighborhood parks are most appli- cable to the cities of Palmer, Wasilla, and Houston, whereas com- munity parks are planned for larger areas, and the standard per- taining to this category is most relevant to Mat-Su Borough as a whole. E5B-6 - - - - - - ,..... TABLE 5oBo1: SUMMARY OF PUBLIC FACILITY AND SERVICE STANDARDS FOR SELECTED COMMUNITES IN THE LOCAL IMPACT AREA Total Trapper Mat-Su Palmer Wasi I Ia Houston ,..... Creek Talkeetna Borough Cantwell Water SU(!(!IY: Average Water Supply & 120-150 120-150 -Treatment (gpd per capita) Sewage Treatment Sewage Treatment 150 (average gpd per capita) Solid Waste Dis(!osal ~ Landfill Requirements o11-o21 o11-o21 0 11-o21 o11-o21 0 11-o21 0 11-o21 0 11-o21 (acres per 1,000 population) ~""" Education Maximum Primary 31 31 31 31 31 15 School-Age Children .... to Teacher Ratio Maximum Secondary 35 35 35 15 School-Age Children .... To Teacher Ratio Teacher to Support 8:1 8:1 8:1 8:1 8:1 8:1 Staff Ratio Health Care Des I red Hosp Ita I Bed 55% Occupancy Rate Law Enforcement Police Officers 1o5 ' 1o0 1o0 """" (officers per thousand population) Parks and Recreation r- Playgrounds (acres per 3o9 3o9 3o9 1000 dwelling units) -Neighborhood Parks 3o3 3o3 3o3 (acres per thousand dwelling units) Community Park 4o8 I""'" (acres per thousand dwelling units) I'""' ! .... -ESB-7 ..... r APPENDIX E5C Assumptions, Methodology, and Rationale for Fiscal Projections - - r r - ...... ' - - .... .... I ' r I. APPENDIX 5.C ASSUMPTIONS, METHODOLOGY, AND RATIONALE FOR FISCAL PROJECTIONS Introduction The fiscal impact analysis was performed to project impacts of popula- tion change on local government revenues and expenditures. The per capita multiplier fiscal impact method was used to supply average cost data per person, per pupil, and per household where applicable. The analysis assumes that current average costs are a good approximation of the real costs to provide services to future residents, and current per capita revenues or their relative proportions will remain constant in the future unless stated otherwise. The results of this analysis, however, should be treated as trend indicators and not predictions of actual experience. Projections are provided for the period 1981-2002. The methodology described was used for both the Base Case and also for making the impacts analysis. This Appendix concludes with a listing of some assumptions which were used for the impacts assessment but not for the baseline. (a) (b) Data Base The analysis relies heavily on secondary data sources including actual 1981 expenditures and revenues from FY 1981-82 budgets, budgets for previous years, and estimates of revenues and expendi- tures anticipated in FY 1982/83 budgets. Capital Improvement Programs and plans were consulted and time series data were collected and analyzed where available. Some primary data were obtained during personal interviews with local government officials. Because the "current" fiscal conditions used were mostly for 1981, all the monitary per capita multipliers and other dollar quota- tions given below are in 1981 real dollars. The analysis results, however, have been translated into January 1982 dollars using the Anchorage consumer price index series. This was done by applying a factor of 1.028 to the 1981 figures (i.e., the inflationary factor from June 1981 to January 1982). · Major Factors Affecting Fiscal Impact Analysis (i) Population Projections Baseline population projections were developed by Frank Orth & Associates, Inc. (1982). These projections were then used in the per capita multiplier fiscal impact method. E5C-1 The anticipated population influx is assumed to be similar in composition to the current population in utilizing social services and facilities. (ii) Inflation The revenue and expenditure projections contained in the chapter are presented in current January 1982 dollars and represent real increases or decreases in spending, unless noted otherwise. (iii) Assessed Valuation Both real and personal property are used to calculate total assessable property for generating local property taxes. Projections are based on time series data between 1970 and 1981. Projections consider both new additions to property tax rolls and increases in the value of existing property. (iv) Tax Rates Tax rates remain constant over time unless stated other- wise. (v) Levels of Service The supply of services is assumed to remain at current levels (i.e., quantity and quality) with the exception of new or expanded service facilities described in current Capital Improvement Programs. Service area boundaries are assumed to remain constant throughout the projection period. The demand schedule for certain services may be different for the incoming population because of a life-style that is different from that of current residents. However, the limitations of a per capita multiplier fiscal impact method require the assumption that the current demand schedules for services remaiQ constant. (vi) Costs of Service There are some shortcomings of the per capita method. The per capita multiplier method does not take into account economies or diseconomies of scale or threshold effects of development. E5C-2 - - - 'i ~- - - - - - ..... - - - - - - - - It can be assumed that communities currently ex peri enci ng minimal excess service capacity wil 1 cause the analysis to overstate the incrementa 1 costs of deve 1 opment; conversely, cases of minimal deficient service capacity will result in an underestimate of the incremental costs of development. (vii) Revenue Sources (viii) Only the major sources of revenue are identified, and pro- jections are computed from 1981 to 2002. The analysis does not attempt to identify all current sources of revenue, as many of these contribute relatively small amounts of the total revenues call ected. The projections should, therefore, be viewed as trend indicators of future revenue schedules and not as predictions of actual future receipts. The composition and relative proportions of revenue sources wi 11 remain constant, unless stated otherwise in the 1 i st of assumptions below. Public policies, regarding the allocation and distribution of revenues, wi 11 remain unchanged. Current surpluses or fund balances w"ill be projected over time. Regional Economic Changes There are many local, state, and national events that could affect economic trends in Alaska, in general, and in the Mat-Su Borough, in particular. These events would cause the rates of population and economic growth to increase, thereby altering many of the assumptions of this analysis. These include, but are not limited to: -The proposed capital move to Willow. assumes this will not ta1<e place; -Industrial development of Point MacKenzie; The analysis -Construction Df the Knik Arm crossing providing increase~ access to Anchorage from the Matanuska-Susitna Borough. It is assumed this will be open by 1989; -Development of minera~ resources; Development of addition a 1 agri cultur~l resources within the Mat-Su Valley and expansion of existing agricultural developments; and -Constructjon of the Trans-Alaska Gas Pipeline. E5C-3 (c) Matanuska-Susitna Borough Fiscal Impact Assessment (i) General Assumptions Growth of the borough will be continuous and gradual as new developments are phased in over time. Relatively more growth will occur outside the incorporated communities, i.e., in the outlying areas between Butte and Wasilla. The outlying areas offer the preferred lifestyle; people seeking urban environments are not necessarily attracted to the incorporated communities. There are currently no building codes in the Mat-Su Borough, and none are anticipated in the foreseeable future. Individual wells and septic tanks are an acceptable method of obtaining fresh water and disposing of waste, respec- tively. There will be no demand for a central water supply system and sewage collection and disposal system beyond those which currently exist within the borough. (ii) Revenue Sources Analysis assumes composition of revenues will remain with·in the following range based upon current proportions: General Fund Service Areas Fund Land Management Fund Education Operating Fund -General Fund-Revenues Current Proportion 36% 3% 3% 58% Projected Range 1-41% 2-4% 2-4% 57-67% Traditionally, six sources of revenue for the general fund may be identified. They include: (1) local proper- ty taxes; (2) school debt service reimbursement from the state; (3) state-shared revenues; (4) municipal assist- ance funds from the state; (5) federal revenue sharing; and {6) miscellaneous sources. The assumptions used regarding each of these sources are outlined below. E5C-4 - - - - .... - r - - Municipal assistance funds average SB5.26 per cepita and represent approximately 15 percent of general fund revenues for FY81/82. This is assumed to remain unchanged. Federal Revenue Sharing is $24.00 per capita and is as- sumed to remain constant in current dollars. Miscellaneous sources of revenue, including interest on earnings and recovery of wages and fringe benefits, ac- count for approximately B percent of total general fund revenues. Currently, no local taxes are raised for capital projects because of the availability of state funding from petroleum revenues. This situation is assumed to continue, as petroleum revenues are anticipated to rise steadily, peaking in 1986 and falling off gradually thereafter (University of Alaska, ISER July 1978). Forecasts of actual bonded indebtedness cannot be made, since the bo~ough applies for state grants to cover the costs of capital improvements. Local shares can only be computed after the level of state funding is determined. Therefore, the estimates of bonded indebtedness used in the analysis were. based on an assumed ratio of indebtedness to total assessed valuation. The ratio of total bonded indebtedness to total assessed valuation is not anticipated to exceed 0.075. This ceil- ; ng was used to project total bonded indebtedness for purposes of computing school debt reimbursement from the state. Average annual total debt service requirement will not exceed $7,000,000, assuming the current level of general ob 1 i gat ion bonds is a good app roxi mat ion of future bond schedules and assuming a 10 percent annual average interest rate. The use of user charges for borough services is not anti- cipated beyond the current ·user charge for ambulance ser- vice. This charge will remain in effect. Revenues from the federal Payment in Lieu of Taxes (PILOT) program are not included in the analysis. The Matanuska-Susitna Borough budget estimated that federal PILOT for FYR2 would be -0-because of reduced federal funding. E5C-5 -Service Areas Fund Revenues Baseline projections are provided for Service Areas Fund Revenues based on the following assumptions. The composition of revenue is assumed to remain con- stant, as follows: • Property taxes ••••••••••••• 30 percent • State-shared revenues ••••••• 70 percent -The current local property tax mill rate of 0.5 for non-areawide services, including fire and road ser- vices, is anticipated to remain constant until 1989 and change to 0.75 for the remainder of the projection period. -Land Management Fund Revenues Baseline projections are provided for Land Management Fund Revenues based on the following. -Revenues from the sale of private lands are not expec- ted to increase in real terms unless the capital is moved to Willow. The analysis presumes that move will not be made; and -Current per capita revenues for this fund are $42.38. (iii) Expenditures Baseline projections are provided for the Mat-Su Borough expenditures based upon the following assumptions: -Real costs (January 1982 $) of services provided by borough will not change significantly until approximately 1990 or 1995 when gradual increases in real terms wi 11 begin to occur. -In general, it is assumed that current average per capita costs are a good approximation of future real costs (inflation not included). -The costs of services that are relatively capital- intensive and utilize expensive machinery are assumed to increase in rea 1 terms. The increases wi 11 be a result of high interest rates in the early 1980s which could cause the cost of borrowing money to rise dramatically. These additional costs are built into the cost of capital equipment and thereby drive up the costs of service delivery. E5C-6 - - - - - - .... .... - ..... r ! - - Total general fund per capita cost $750 -Service areas expenditures may be classified as ambulance service, sanitation landfill, the library, fire service, parks and recreation, and road maintenance and repair. Per capita costs used in the analysis are given below. Ambulance average per capita cost + 5% 1986 -1990 + 1% 1991 -2005 Sanitation -1 andfi 11 per cap ita cost + 5% 1986 -2005 Library per capita cost Fire service per capita cost + 5% 1986-1995 + 1% 1996 -2005 Parks and recreation per capita cost Road maintenance and repair $ 30 $ 16 $ 32 $ 35 $ 50 $2,500 per mile - A real rate of increase in road maintenance costs of 10 percent per year was assumed. A 10 percent annual increase appears reasonable based on the trend of previous expenditures on road maintenance, consideration of increased demand by new residents for adequate road maintenance, and discussions with local officials. For recent years, the annual increases in expenditure are as fallows: • 1980-1981 increase in expenditures per mile 33.3 percent 1981-1982 increase in expenditures per mile 25.0 percent -Discussion with local officials revealed tremendous increase in demand for improved road maintenance of existing roads and maintenance expanded to rural roads currently not served by the borough. -The per capita t.and Management Program Administration cost was assumed to be $50. -Education -average per pupil expenditure, including both capital projects and administrative costs, is $5650 per pupil. -Formula for computing projected costs: average per capita cost x projected population or projected number of pupils. E5C-7 (iv) Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District Budget -Revenues Baseline projections are provided for federal, state, and local sources of revenue based upon the following assump- tions: -Composition of revenue assumed to remain within 3 percent of current proportions: State Sources Local Property Taxes Federal Sources • State Sources Current 68% 26% 6% Future Range 65-71% 23-29~~ 3-9% The foundation program is the primary source of state funds for education. The formula used to determine the funding level is: Cost per instructional unit= unit cost x cost differ- ential for the specific borough. Unit cost is assumed to remain $38,600 in real terms between 1981-1989; but will register a 5 percent increase in 1990 and remain constant at that level for the rest of the projection period. Time series data for 1978 to 1982 indicate the ratio of instructional units to average daily attendance to be '0.08. The school population projections are used as average daily attendance data together with this ratio in order to compute the number of instructional units. The cost differential for the.borough is 1.04. Total State Foundation Program Revenue = instruction unit cost x number of units. An additional component of state revenues comes from pupil transportation revenues. It is assumed that $450 per pupil in real terms will be provided. Should costs of fuel increase, these will be offset by economies of scale as the borough continues to grow. E5C-8 - - - - ..... - - - - - - Total state revenues for education are a combination of state foundation program revenues and transportation revenues • • Local Property Taxes Local property tax share is the amount of areawide taxation that is transferred from the general fund as noted above. School taxes vary according to assessed valuation and total population and not according to the number of pupils. A mill rate of 6.0 mills per $1,000 assessed valuation is assumed to remain constant • • Federal Sources Federal sources currently provide $300.00 per pupil. This is assumed to remain constant over time as the district will continue to apply for federal grant monies. -Expenditures Baseline projections of expenditures on education are based on the following assumptions: -Average per pupil expenditure is $5650 in current dollars unti 1 1989 but will change to $5933 for the balance of the projection period. -The following relative proportions are assumed for the relative shares of individual cost categories: Regular Instruction Vocational Education Special Education Support Services Ope rat ion and Maintenance Pupil Transportation Other 1985-2005 30% 2~~ 10% 18% 18% 10% 12"~ 1981-1984 33% 4% 6% 18% 19% 8% 12% -The proportion of regular instruction and vocational education will be reduced from 1981 levels to reflect the increase in special education. PL 94142 requires that a school district provide whatever special educational services may be required by a pupil in that school district. E5C-9 Passage of this law has resulted in tremendous increases in expenditures for special education. -Capital Improvements Program The 1980 Six-Year Capital Construction Plan is assumed to remain unchanged; however, annual requests to the legis- lature for additional projects may be forthcoming. (d) Conditions Special to Impacts Analysis The baseline forecast provides all the necessary data to implement the impact forecasts for 1981-2002. The analysis assumes that current average costs are ~ good approximation of the real future costs of service, and current per capita revenues or their rela- tive proportions will remain constant in the future, with or with- out the project. The hydroelectric project will, therefore, not change real per capita costs or receipts, but will alter gross re- venues and expenditures. Major factors affecting the fiscal baseline analysis are assuned to also affect the impact analysis. Impact forecasts were made for all budgets analyzed in the baseline forecast and followed the baseline methodology at all stages except where noted below. ( i ) Matanuska-Susitna Borough Budget General Fund Revenues -Property Taxes Total assessed valuation was assumed to be proportional to population size as follows: -Per capita assessed valuation from the baseline forecast x the project scenario population data= total assessed valuation under the project conditions. Then, property taxes were computed to equal the product of total assessed valuation and the mill rate. -The rest of the 1 mpact forecasts were made with the same per capita assumptions as used in the baseline projections. E5C-10 - - ~l - - - - - - - - - - APPENDIX E50 Traffic Volume Assumptions ·-~ ~· - APPENDIX 5.D TRAFFIC VOLUME ASSUMPTIONS The following assumptions were made in generating Tables E.5.20 and E.5.21 which address projected traffic volumes on the Denali Highway and the project access road during peak years of construction: 1. Unrestricted access for authorized, project-related personnel on the·access road (unauthorized traffic will be denied access). 2. An onsite village will house up to 350 workers and their families, and these resident dependents (2 per family) will take excursions offsite once per week on the average. Additionally, they will travel two persons to a vehicle for a total of 100 one-way vehicle excursion trips per week on the project access road. 3. At peak workforce, each of the 3,500 workers will travel on the access road an average of once every two weeks on excursion. Fur- ther, they will travel two persons to a vehicle, for a total of 250 one-way vehicle excursion trips per week on the project access road. · 4. Ten percent of the 350 excursion vehicles (see 2. and 3. above) wi 11 reach and travel some distance. down and back the Dena 1 i Highway, creating an average daily traffic volume (ADT) of 35 vehi- cles on the Denali Highway. 5. About 300 workers will have dependent families and/or homes in the Cantwell area and commute once a week. to and from the site, each worker using one private vehicle. This commuting will generate an average 86 one-way trips per day on· the access road and Denali Highway west end. In a second case (see Case B bel ow) it was as- sumed that workers would share rides, with 1.72 workers per vehi- cle, thus reducing the ADT to 50. 6. About 2500 workers will have permanent residences in areas of the region other than Cantwell and commute on an average of once every two weeks to and from the site. In one case (see Case A below), it was assumed that each worker will use his own vehicle. In a second case (see Case B below), it was assumed that workers would share rides, with 1.72 workers per vehicle. Case A generates an access road and Denali Highway ADT of 358, and Case Ban ADT of 208. 7. All workers who do not have homes in the region (both out-of-state and Alaskan, but out of region) will be provided transportation jn and out of the site by air or bus. The number of these workers is sufficiently small (286) as not to constitute a significant traffic impact. E5D-1 8. No alternative (to private vehicles) ground transportation program will be provided to commuters. 9. Commuters will not be able to fly private airplanes into the site. 10. Five vehicles carrying government and agency-related personnel will travel the Denali west end and access road round trip per day. 11. Thirty-five heavy trucks will travel the Denali west end and access road round trip per day. 12. Ten vehicles carrying project-support materials will travel the Denali west end and access road round trip per day. 13. Workers are given one day off per week, and workers are assigned to shifts. so that one-seventh of the work force is off on any given day. E5D-2 - - -- ..... SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC PRO,JECT VOLU~IE 7 EXHIBIT E CHAPTER 6 GEOLOGICAL AND SOIL RESOURCES - - - -[ SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT VOLUME 7 EXHIBIT E CHAPTER 6 GEOLOGICAL AND SOIL RESOURCES TABLE OF CONTENTS Page 1 -INTRODUCTION .............................................. E-6-1 2-BASELINE DESCRIPTION ..........•........•.................. E-6-3 2.1 -Regional Geology .................................... E-6-3 2.1.1 -Stratigraphy ......................... ; ...... E-6-3 2.1.2 -Tectonic History ............................ E-6-3 2. 2 -Quarternary Geology ................................. E-6-4 2.3 -Mineral Resources ................................... E-6-5 2.4-Seismic Geology ......•..........•................... E-6-5 2.4.1 -Introduction ................................ E-6-5 2. 4. 2 -Conceptual Approach ......................... E-6-6 2. 4. 3 -Tectonic Model .............................. E-6-7 2. 4. 4 -1980 Approach ........•...•.................. E-6-8 2. 4.5 -1981 Approach ............................... E-6-9 2.4.6-Results Of Study ............................ E-6-10 2.4.7-Design Level Earthquake ..................... E-6-11 2. 5 -Watana Damsite .....................•.........•...... E-6-13 2.5.1 -Introduction ................................ E-6-13 2 . 5 . 2 -Ge o 1 o g i c Co n d it i on s . . . . . . .. .. . .. . . .. .. . . . .. . E -6 -13 2. 5.3 -Structural Features ......................... E-6-15 2. 5. 4 -Ground Water Condit ions ..................... E-6-16 2. 5. 5 -Permafrost Condit ions ....................... E -6-16 2. 5. 6 -Perm e ab il it y . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . • . . . E -6 -16 2. 5. 7 -Relict Channels ............................. E -6-16 2. 5. 8 -Borrow Sites .......................•........ E-6-17 2.6 -Devil Canyon Dansite ................................ E-6-17 2. 6. 1 -Introduction •.......•..................•.... E-6-17 2.6.2 -Geologic Conditions ......................... E-6-18 2. 6. 3 -Structural Features ......................... E-6-20 2.6.4 -Ground Water Conditions ..................... E-6-21 2. 6. 5 -Permafrost .................................. E-6-21 2.6.6-Permeability ................................ E-6-21 2.6. 7-Geology Along Proposed Long Tailrace Tunnel . E-6-21 2.6.8 -Borrow Sites ................................ E-6-23 2. 7 -Reservoir Geology ................................... E-7-24 2. 7.1 -Watana •.................•................... E-7-24 2. 7. 2 -Devil Canyon ................................ E-7-25 - TABLE OF CONTENTS 3 -IMPACTS ................................................... E-6-27 3.1 -Reservoir-Induced Seismicity (RIS) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . E-6-27 3. 1.1 -In trod uct ion ................................ E -6-27 3.1.2-Evaluation of Potential Occurrence .......... E-6-28 3. 2 -Seepage ............................................. E-6-30 3.3-Reservoir Slope Failures ............................ E-6-30 3.3.1-General ..................................... E-6-30 3. 3. 2 -Slope Stability fvbdel s for Watana and Devil Canyon Reservoirs ..................... E-6-32 3. 3. 3 -Devil Canyon Slope Stability and Erosion .... E-6-32 3.3.4-Watana Slope Stability and Erosion .......... E-6-34 3. 4 -Permafrost Thaw ..................................... E-6-36 3.5-Seismically Induced Failure ......................... E-6-37 3. 6 -Reservoir Freeboard for Wind Wave ................... E-6-37 3.7 -Developnent of Borrow Sites and Quarries ............ E-6-38 4 -MITIGATION ................................................ E-6-39 4.1 -Impacts and Hazards ................................. E-6-39 4.2-Reservoir-Induced Seismicity ........................ E-6-39 4. 3 -Seepage ............................................. E-6-40 4. 4 -Reservoir Slope Fai 1 ures ............................ E-6-40 4.5 -Permafrost Thaw ..................................... E-6-41 4. 6 -Seismically Induced Failure ......................... E-6-41 4.7-Geologic Hazards ......•............................. E-6-41 4. 8 -Borrow and Quarry Sites ............................. E-6-42 - GLOSSARY ...................................................... E -6-43 REFERENCES .................................................... E-6-45 LIST OF TABLES ............................................... . -L I S T OF F I G UR E S . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . i i i .... -' - LIST OF TABLES Page -Table E.6.1-Geologic Time Scale ............................. E-6-47 Table E.6.2-Watana .klint Characteristics .................... E-6-48 Table E.6.3-Devil Canyon Joint Characteristics .............. E-6-49 Table E.6.4-Devil Can.}Qn Tailrace Tunnel -Joint Characteristics ................................. E-6-50 i - - LIST OF FIGURES Figure E.6.1 -Regional Geology Figure E.6.2 -Quaternary Study Region Time Scale Figure E.6.3 -Talkeetna Terrain Model and Section Figure E.6.4 -Features Selected for 1981 Studies Figure E.6.5 -Watana Damsite Geologic Map Figure E.6.6 -Watana Damsite Top of Bedrock and Surficial Geologic Map Figure E.6.7-Watana Damsite Composite Joint Plots Figure E.6.8 -Watana Rock Permeability Figure E.6.9 -Watana Relict Channel/Borrow SiteD -Top of Bedrock Figure E.6.10 -Watana Relict Channel Cross Sections Figure E.6.11 -Generalized Stratigraphic Column Watana Relict Channel and Borrow Site D Figure E.6.12 -Watana -Fog Lakes Relict Channel Top of Bedrock Figure E.6.13 -Watana Borrow Site Map Figure E.6.14 -Devil Canyon Geologic Map Figure E.6.15-Devil Canyon Top of Bedrock and Surficial Geologic Map Figure E.6.16 -Devil Canyon Joint Plots Figure E.6.17 -Devil Canyon Rock Permeability Figure E.6.18 -Devil Canyon Tailrace Geologic Map Figure E.6.19 -Slope Models for the Watana and Devil Canyon Reservoirs Figure E.6.20 -Slope Models for the Watana and Devil Canyon Reservoirs Figure E.6.21 -Devil Canyon Reservoir Index Map Figure E.6.22 -Devil Canyon Slope Stability Map Figure E.6.23 -Devil Canyon Slope Stability Map Figure E.6.24 -Devil Canyon Slope Stability Map Figure E.6.25 -Devil Canyon Slope Stability Map Figure E.6.26-Devil Canyon Slope Stability Map Figure E.6.27 -Devil Canyon Slope Stability Map ·Figure E.6.28 -Devil Canyon Slope Stability Map Figure E.6.29 -Devil Canyon Slope Stability Map Figure E.6.30 -Watana Reservoir Index Map Figure E.6.31 -Watana Slope Stability Map i i i LIST OF FIGURES - Figure E.6.32 -Watan a Slope Stability Map Figure E.6.33 -Watana Slope Stab i 1 it y Map Figure E.6.34 -Watana Slope Stab il ity Map Figure E.6~35 -Watana Slope Stability Map Figure E.6.36 -W at an a S 1 ope Stability Map Figure E.6.37 -Watana Slope Stability Map Figure E.6.38 -Watana Slope Stab il ity Map Figure E.6.39 -Watana Slope Stability Map -- Figure E.6.40 -W at an a S 1 ope Stab il ity Map Figure E.6.41 -Watana Slope Stability Map -' Figure E.6.42 -W at an a S 1 ope Stability Map Figure E.6.43 -Watana Slope Stab il ity Map -Figure E.6.44 -Watana Slope Stability Map Figure E.6.45 -Watana Slope Stability Map - iv - - - r- i - - - 6 -GEOLOGICAL AND SOIL RESOURCES 1 -INTRODUCTION The Devil Canyon and Watana damsites are located on the Susitna River within the Talkeetna Mountains in south-central Alaska. The geologic setting of the Ta "lkeetna Mountains and the Susti na River basin is in a tectonic mosaic of separate cant i nental structura 1 blocks and frag- ments. The geo 1 ogy and soi 1 resources, stratigraphy, structure, and glacial history are described in this section as well as regional tectonics and seismic geology. Details of the geotechnical and seismic investigations conducted for the Susitna Hydroelectric Project are in- cluded in the 1980-81 Geotechnical Report (Acres 1982a), 1982 Supple- ment to the 1980-81 Geotechnical Re ort (Acres 1982b), Susitna Hydro- electric Project Feasibility Report Acres 1982c), Interim Report on Seismic Studies for Susitna Hydroelectric Project (WCC 1980), and Final Report on Seismic Studies for Susitna Hydroelectric Project (WCC 1982). These documents stand as references to this chapter and should be con- sulted as required to provide detailed discussions and supplemental information. E-6-1 - - - - 2 -BASELINE DESCRIPTION 2.1 -Regional Geology 2.1.1 -Stratigraphy The oldest rocks which outcrop in the region are a metamorphosed upper Paleozoic (Table E.6.1) rock sequence which trends north- eastward along the eastern portion of the Susitna River basin (Figure E.6.1). These rocks consist chiefly of coarse to fine grained clastic flows and tuffs of basaltic to andesitic composi- tion, locally containing marble interbeds. This system of rocks is uncomformably overlain by Triassic and Jurassic metavolcanic and sedimentary rocks. These rocks consist of a shallow marine sequence of metabasalt flows, interbedded with chert, argillite, marble, and volcaniclastic rocks. These are best expressed in the project area around Watana and Portage Creeks. The Paleozoic and lower Mesozoic rocks are intruded by Jurassic plutonic rocks composed chiefly of granodiorite and quartz diorite. The Jurassic age instrusive rocks form a batholithic complex of the Talkeetna Mountains. Thick turbidite sequences of argillite and graywackes were deposited during the Cretaceous. These deposits form the bedrock at the Devil Canyon site. These rocks were subsequently deformed and intruded by a series of Tertiary age plutonic rocks ranging in composition from granite to diorite and include related felsic and mafic volcanic extrusive rocks. The Watana site is underlain by one of these large plutonic bodies. These plutons were sub- sequently intruded and overlain by felsic and mafic volcanics. Mafic volcanics, composed of andesite porphyry, occur downstream from the Watana site. 2.1.2-Tectonic History At 1 east three major episodes of deformation are recognized for the project areas: -A period of intense metamorphism, plutonism, and uplift in the Jurassic; - A similar orogeny during the middle to late Cretaceous; and - A period of extensive uplift and denudation from the middle Tertiary to Quaternary. The first period (early to middle Jurassic) was the first major orogenic event in the Susitna River basin as it now exists. It was characterized by the intrusion of plutons and accompanied by crustal uplift and regional metamorphism. E-6-3 2. 2 -Quaternary Ceology fvbst of the structural features in the region are the result of the Cretaceous orogeny associated with the accretion of north\\est drifting continental blocks into the North Prnerican plate. This plate convergence resulted in complex thrust faulting and folding which produced the pronounced northeast/ southwest str uc tur al grain across the region. The argillite and graywacke beds in the Devil Canyon area were isoclinally folded along north~~.est trending folds during this orogeny. The majority of the struc- tural features, of which the Talkeetna Thrust fault is the most prominent in the Talkeetna f>buntains, are a consequence of this orogeny. The Talkeetna Thrust is postulated as representing an old suture zone, involving the thrusting of Paleozoic, Triassic and Jurassic rocks over the Cretaceous sedimentary rocks (WCC 1980). Other compressional structures related to this orogeny are evident in the intense shear zones roughly parallel to and southeast of the Talkeetna Thrust. Tertiary deformations are evidenced by a complex system of nor- mal, oblique slip, and high-angle reverse faults. The prominent tectonic features of this period bracket the basin area. The Denali fault, a right-lateral, strike-slip fault 40 to 43 miles north of the dcmsites on the Sustina River, exhibits evidence of fault displacement during Cenozoic time. The Castle MJuntain- Caribou fault system, which borders the Talkeetna fvbuntains approximately 70 miles southeast of the sites, is a normal fault which has had fault displacement during the f-blocene. 2.2-Quaternary Geology A period of cyclic climatic cooling during the Quaternary resulted in repeated glaciation of southern Alaska. Little information is avail- able regarding the glacial history in the upper Susitna River basin. Unl·ike the north side of the Alaska Range, which is characterized by alpine type glaciation, the Susitna Basin experienced coalescing pied- mont glaciers that originated from both the Alaska Range and the Talkeetna M:>untains which merged and filled the upper basin area. At least three periods of glaciation have been delineated for the region based on the glacial stratigraphy. During the most recent period (Late Wisconsinan), glaciers filled the adjoining lowland basins and spread onto the continental shelf (Figure E.6.2). Waning of the ice masses from the Alaska Range and Talkeetna J'vbuntains formed ice barriers which blocked the drainage of glacial meltwater and produced proglacial lakes. As a consequence of the repeated glaciation, the Susitna and Copper River basins are covered by varying Within the site region, the late Quaternary surfaces include those of Holocene and Pleistocene age (including the Wisconsinan and Illinoian stages). These surfaces range from a few years to approximately 120,000 years before present. E-6-4 - - - - - - - - - - -I I"'" - 2.3 -Mineral Resources These repeated gl aci at ions have contributed to the 1 and forms found within the project area. Terrain unit maps developed for the project area from aerial photo interpretation are presented in Appendix J of the 1980-81 Geotechnical Report (Acres 1982a), while detailed Quater- nary maps of the regions are presented in Section 3 of Final Report on Seismic Studies for Susitna Hydroelectric Project (WCC 1982). 2.3-Mineral Resources Mineral exploration and m1n1ng have been limited in the immediate pro- ject area. Typical of the mining done on the upper Susitna River basin since 1930 is a low density of claims characterized by intermittent activity. Although mining has played an active roll in portions of the Susitna River basin, no mining activity has been undertaken in the immediate project area. Examination of mining records for the project area show only several inactive claims within the proposed Watana and De vi 1 Canyon reservoir impoundments that waul d be affected by the pro- ject. No evidence of any mineral potential has been found within the project area nor has any interest been expressed by outside parties to further explore mineral potentials within the project area during the duration of this project. Placer mines working alluvial deposits for minerals are found in sites throughout other parts of Mat-Su Borough. Active mining has been more concentrated in Gold, Chunilna (Clear), and Portage creeks than in other areas of the upper Susitna basin with some other active claims around Stephan and Fog Lakes, Jay Creek, and the Watana Hi 11 s east of Jay Creek. Mining at Gold Creek was active from the early 1950s through the late 1970s; most claims were gold, copper, and silver placer mines. A concentration of at least six mining claims has existed on Chunilna Creek where gold placer claims have been worked since the late 19th century. Mining has occurred in the Portage Creek area since the late 19th century, but only one claim remains active. Coal is the major mineral resource in Mat-Su Borough. Although exten- sive deposits of varying quality are located in the river valley areas, no coal mining activity occurs in the project area. Most coal is mined to the south and west of the project area; much of it is used for household fuel. 2.4 -Seismic Geology 2.4.1-Introduction A detailed seismologic study for the Susitna project was under- taken by Woodward-Clyde Consultants (WCC). The study, performed over a two-year period, included: E-6-5 2.4 -Seismic Geology -Detailed literature research; -Interpretation of remote sensing data; -Geologic mapping of faults and linears; -Microseismic monitoring, -Ground motion studies; and -Analysis of dam stability. Details of WCC 1 S study are presented in Interim Report on Seismic Studies for Susitna Hydroelectric Project (1980) and Final Report on Seismic Studies for Susitna Hydroelectric Project (1982). 2.4.2 -Conceptual Approach According to present understanding of plate tectonics, the earth 1 S lithosphere, which contains the brittle 12 to 19 miles (20 to 30 km) thickness or so of more rigid crust, overlies the denser and more viscous mantle. Observed major horizontal movements of the crustal plates are considered to be related to, or caused by, thermal convective processes within the mantle. Within this plate-tectonic framework, faults that have the poten- tial for generating earthquakes have had recent displacement and may be subject to repeated displacements as long as they are in the same tectonic stress regime. In regions of plate collision such as Alaska, the tectonic stress regime is the result of one plate being subducted, or underthrust, beneath the adjacent plate. Within this environment, primary rupture along fault planes can occur: within the downgoing plate where it is de- coupled from the upper plate; along the interface between the upper and lower plates where they move past each other; and with- in the overriding plate. In the site region, faults with recent displacement are present in the overriding (upper) plate and at depth in the downgoing plate where it is decoupled from the upper plate. Faults with recent displacement in the downgoing plate and in the upper plate can generate earthquakes which resu it in ground mo- tions at the surface. These earthquakes are considered for seis- mic design purposes. The faults in the downgoing plate are con- sidered not to have the potential for surface rupture. In the upper plate, if the rupture that occurs on these faults is rela- tively small and relatively deep, then rupture at the ground surface is likely not to occur. If the rupture along the fault plane is at sufficiently shallow depth and is sufficiently large, then surface rupture can occur. The criteria for this study were that faults that have been subject to surface displacement within approximately the past 100,000 years were classified as having recent displacement. E-6-6 - - - - - - - - - - .... - - - 2.4 -Seismic Geology Inherent with this concept of "fault with recent displacement" was the basic premise that faults without recent di sp 1 a cement waul d not have surface rupture nor be a source of earthquakes. Faults without recent displacement (as determined during this investigation) were considered to be of no additional importance to Project feasibility and dam design. 2.4.3 -Tectonic Model An understanding of the regional geologic and tectonic framework is essential for: the assessment of fault activity, estimation of preliminary maximum credible earthquakes; evaluation of the potential for surface fault rupture; and evaluations of the potential for reservoir-induced seismicity. The site region is located within a tectonic unit defined here as the Talkeetna Terrain. The Terrain boundaries are the Denali- Totschunda fault to the north and east, the Castle Mountain fault to the south, a broad zone of deformation with volcanoes to the west, and the Benioff zone at depth (Figure E.6.3). All of the boundaries are (or contain) faults with recent displacement except for the western boundary which is primarily a zone of uplift marked by Cenozoic age volcanoes. The Terrain is part of the North American plate. Results of this study show that the Talkeetna Terrain is a rela- tively stable tectonic unit with major strain release occurring along its boundaries. This conclusion is based on: the evidence for recent displacement along the Denali-Totschunda and Castle Mountain faults and the Benioff zone; the absence of major his- torical earthquakes within the Terrain; and the absence of faults within the Terrain that clearly have evidence of recent displace- ment. Record of historical seismicity in and around the project area is presented in Section 4 of WCC 1980. None of the faults and lineaments found within the Talkeetna Terrain were observed to have strong evidence of recent displacement. Strain accumulation and resultant release appears to be occurring primarily along the margins of the Terrain. Some compression- related crustal adjustment within the Terrain is probably occur- ring as a result of the proposed plate movement and the stresses related to the subduction zone. This tectonic model serves as a guide to understanding tectonic and seismologic conditions in the site region. E-6-7 2.4 -Seismic Geology 2.4.4 -1980 Approach (a) Candidate Features The application of the "fault with recent displacement" concept for this investigation involved: Identification of all faults and lineaments in the site region that had been reported in the 1 iterature and/or were observable on remotely sensed data. -Selection of faults and lineaments of potential signifi- cance in developing design considerations for the Project, from the standpoint of seismic source potential and/or potential surface rupture through a site. These faults and lineaments were selected using a length-distance cri- teria set forth in Section 3 of WCC 1980. These faults and lineaments were designated as candidate features. -Evaluation of the candidate features during the geologic field reconnaissance studies. On the basis of this field work, the micro-earthquake data, and application of the preliminary significance criteria, those faults and linea- ments were designated as candidate-significant features. These features were subjected to additional evaluation using refined analyses, as described below, to select those features or potential significance to Project design considerations. Refinement of the evaluation process, using the signifi- cance criteria. On the basis of this evaluation, signifi- cant features were selected for continued studies in 1981. (b) Significant Features Of 216 candidate features identified at the outset of the study, a total of 48 candidate-significant features were identified in the site region on the basis of the initial length-distance screening criteria, their proximity to the site, their classification in the field, and application of preliminary significance screening criteria (WCC 1980). Candidate-significant features are those faults and linea- ments which, on the basis of available data at the end of the field reconnaissance, were considered to have a poten- tial effect on Project design. Subsequent evaluation, using a refined, systematic ranking methodology, resulted in the identification of 48 significant features. The 48 candidate-significant features were subsequently evaluated by making detailed analyses regarding their seismic source potential and surface rupture potential at E-6-8 - - - - - - - - 2.4-Seismic Geology either site. For the evaluation of seismic source poten- tial, the analyses included: an assessment of the likeli- hood that a feature is a fault with recent displacement; an estimation of the preliminary maximum credible earthquake that could be associated with the feature; and an evaluation of the peak bedrock accelerations that v.ould be generated by the preliminary maximum credible earthquake at either site. To evaluate the potential for surface rupture at either dam- site, the analyses included: an assessment of the 1 ikel i- hood that a feature is a fault with recent displacement; an assessment of the 1 ikel ihood that a feature passes through either site; and an evaluation of the maximu11 amount of displacement that could occur along the feature during a single event (e.g., the preliminary maximum credible earthquake). The evaluation of the 48 candidate significant faults, applying the judgments described above, resulted in the selection of 13 features, designated significant features, that should have additional studies to understand and more fully evaluate their significance to the Project (Figure E.6.4). Of these 13 features, four are in the vicinity of the Watana site including the Talkeetna Thrust Fault {Ke4-1), Susitna feature (KD3-3), 11 The Fi ns 11 feature {K -2 7), and 1 ineament KD3-7. Nine of the features are in the vicinity of the Devil Canyon site including an unnamed fault (designated KD5-2) and lineaments KC5-5, KD5-3, KD5-9, KD5-12, KD-5-42, KD5-43, KD5-44, and KD-45 {the alpha-numeric S)'!Tlbol [e.g., KC4-1] has been assigned to each fault and 1 ineament). Detailed discussion of these 13 features are presented in Sect i on 8 in wee 1980. These significant features were delineated for study during the 1981 program. 2.4.5-1981 Approach The 1981 study of the 13 significant features identified during 1980 involved the following objectives. -Assessing the 1 ikel ihood that each of the 13 features is a fault; -Assessing the age of the sediments overlying each of the 13 features; E-6-9 2.4 -Seismic Geology -Selecting and excavating trenches across topographic features that resembled topographic expression of faults in the young geologic deposits; -Evaluating the likelihood that each of the 13 features is a fault with recent displacement using the guideline established for the project, i.e., rupture of the ground surface during the past 100,000 years; -Assessing the detectabi l i ty of faults that may have ruptured the ground surface during moderate to large earthquakes in the past 100,000 years and estimating a detection-level earthquake that could theoretically occur on a fault that might be below the detection level of geologic investigation; -Evaluating seismological records of moderate-to-large histori- cal earthquakes in the project region to estimate focal me- chanism parameters and assess the relation of the earthquakes to recognized faults with recent displacement; -Applying judgment and experience gained from the study of other faults with recent displacement in Alaska and in similar tectonic environments (e.g., Japan and South ~1erica); -Estimating the maximum credible earthquake and recurrence interval (1) for each fault that is considered to be a seismic source; (2) for the Benioff zone; and (3) for a detection-level earthquake; -Estimating the potential for surface rupture on any faults with recent displacement within 6 miles (10 km) of the damsites; and -Estimating the values of ground-motion maximum credible earthquake. 2.4.6 -Results of Study parameters for the Faults for which evidence of recent displacement was found were considered to be potential seismic sources. Each potential seismic source was evaluated to estimate its potential seismic ground motions at the Watana and Devil Canyon sites and its potential for surface rupture within 6 miles (10 km) of ttle sites. On the basis of the 1980 study, the Talkeetna Terrain boundary faults were identified as seismic sources that need to be considered as potential sources of seismic ground motion at the sites. These include: the Castle Mountain Fault, the Denali Fault, the Benioff zone interplate region, and the Benioff zone E-6-10 -· - - - ~' - - - - 2.4-Seismic Geology intraplate region {Figure E.6.3). These sources are considered to be or to contain faults with recent displacement that could cause seismic ground motions at the Watana and Devil Canyon sites; however, because of their distance from the sites, these faults do not have the potential for rupture through the sites. The 1980 study also identified 13 features near the sites that required detailed evaluation during the 1981 study to assess their importance for seismic design (WCC 1980). On the basis of the 1981 study, no evidence for faults with recent displacement other than the Talkeetna Terrain boundary faults has been observed within 62 miles (100 km) of either site, and none of the 13 features near the sites are judged to be faults with recent displacement. Therefore, when applying the guideline defining faults with recent displacement to the results of the investigation, the 13 features are considered not to be potential seismic sources that could cause seismic ground motions at the sites or surface rupture through the sites. Interpretation that none of the 13 features are faults with re- cent displacement is based on data collection during the investi- gation. The data are limited in the sense that a continuous 100, 000-year-ol d stratum or surface was not found along the entire length of each of the features. For this reason, the avail able data were analyzed and professional judgment was applied to reach conclusions concerning the recency of displace- ment of each of the 13 features. Detailed discussions of these 13 features are presented in Section 4 of wee 1982. As discussed previously, earthquakes up to a given magnitude could occur on faults with recent displacement that might not be detectable by this geologic investigation. The size of such an earthquake, designated the detection-level earthquake, varies according to the degree of natural preservation of fault-related geomorphic features and from one tectonic environment to another. The detection-level earthquake has been estimated by: (1) evalu- ating the dimensions of surface faulting associated with world- wide historical earthquakes in tectonic environments similar to the Talkeetna Terrain; (2) identifying the threshold of surface faulting using a group of thoroughly studied earthquakes in California; and {3) evaluating the degree of preservation of fault-related geomorphic features in the Talkeetna Terrain. For this project, it has been judged that the detection-level earth- quake is magnitude (Ms) 6 (WCC 1982). 2. 4. 7 -Design Level Earthquake (a) Maximum Credible Earthquakes (MCEs) fvlaximum Credible Earthquakes (MCEs) were estimated for the boundary faults (in the crust and in the Benioff zone) and E-6-11 2.4 -Seismic Geology for the detection-level earthquake. The MCEs for the crustal faults (the Castle Mountain and Denali Faults) were estimated using the magnitude-rupture-1 ength rel at i onshi ps (WCC 1982). Sources of moderate earthquake appear to exist within the Talkeetna Terrain, although no faults with recent displacement were detected by the investigation. Therefore, an MCE was estimated for the detection-level earthquake that waul d be associated with a fault a 1 ong which no surface rupture was observed. In summary, the MCEs for the crustal and Benioff zone seismic sources are estimated as follows: Closest Approach to Proeosed Damsites MCE Devil Canyon Watana Source .Disl mi 1 es/ (km} miles/{km} Castle Mountain fault 7-1/2 71 (115) 65 (105) Denali fault 8 40 (64) 43 (70) Benioff zone (interplate) 8-1/2 57 (91) 40 (64) Benioff zone (intraplate) 7-1/2 38 (61) 31 (50) Detection-level earthquake 6 <6 ( <10) <6 ( <10) Estimated mean peak horizontal ground accelerations and duration of strong shaking (significant duration) at the sites as the result of the governing maximum credible earthquake are the following: Earthquake Source Benioff Zone Denali Fault Terrain Earthquake Maximum Magnitude 8-1/2 8 6 Mean Peak Acceleration De vi 1 Watana Canyon Site Site 0.35g 0.2g 0.5g 0.3g 0.2g 0.5g Significant Duration (sec) 45 35 6 The probabilities of exceedance of peak ground accelerations at the sites were estimated. The Benioff Zone was found to dominate the contributions to the probabilities of exceed- ance. Other sources of earthquakes, including the Denali Fault and the detection-level earthquake, contributed only slightly to the probabilities of exceedance. These ground motions were used as a guideline in developing the engineering design criteria. E-6-12 - - - - """· I - r - 2.5 -Watana Damsite (b) Reservoir-Induced Seismicity (RIS) The studies concluded that there would be a high likelihood for reservoir-induced earthquake as a result of impoundment. However, such an event is not expected to cause an earth- quake larger than that which could occur in a given region "naturally." A detailed discussion of RIS for the Susitna Project is presented in Section 10 of WCC 1980. 2.5 -Watana Damsite 2.5.1 -Introduction A detailed discussion of the Watana site geology is presented in reference documents Acres 1982a and 1982b. A summary of the site geotechnical conditions are summarized in the following sec- tions. 2.5.2 -Geologic Conditions A summary of site overburden and bedrock conditions is presented in the following paragraphs. A geologic map of the damsite area is shown in Figure E.6.5 with a top of rock map shown in Figure E.6~6. (a) Overburden Overburden thickness in the damsite area ranges from 0 up to 80 feet (0 to 24m) in localized areas. On the lower slopes, the overburden consists primarily of talus. The upper areas of the abutments near the top of the slope are deposits of glacial tills, alluvium, and talus. Subsurface investiga-tions show the contact between the overburden and bedrock to be relatively unweathered. The depth of the river alluvium beneath the proposed dam averages about 80 feet (24m) and consists of sand, silt, coarse gravels and boulders. (b) Bedrock Lithology The damsite is primarily underlain by an intrusive dioritic body which varies in composition from granodiorite to quartz diorite to diorite. The texture is massive and the rock is hard, competent, and fresh except within sheared and altered zones. These rocks have been intruded by mafic and felsic dikes which are generally only a few feet thick. The contacts are healed and competent. The rock immediately downstream from the damsite is an andesite porphyry. This rock is medium to dark gray to green and contains quartz E-6-13 2.5-Watana Damsite diorite inclusions. The nature of the contact zone of the andesite with the diorite is poorly understood. However, where mapped or drilled, the contact zone is generally weathered and fractured up to 10 to 15 feet. Oetailed dis- cussions of the andesite porphyry/diorite contact are presented in Section 6 of Acres 1982a report. (c) Bedrock Structures ( i) Joints There are two major and two minor joint sets at the site. Set I, which is the most prominent set, strikes 320° and dips to 80° NE to vertical. This set is found throughout the damsite and parallels the general structural trend in the regions. Set I has a subset, which strikes 290° to 300° with a dip of 75° NE. This subset is localized in the downstream area near where the diversion tunnel portals are proposed. This sub- set also parallels the shear zones in the downstream area of the site. Set II trends northeast to east and dips vertically. This set is best developed in the upstream portion of the damsite area, but is locally prominent in the downstream areas. Sets II I and IV are minor sets but can be locally well developed. Set III trends N-S with variable dips ranging from 40° east to 65° west, while Set IV trends 090° with sub- horizontal dips. Set III forms numerous open joints on the cliff faces near the "Fingerbuster," and several shear zones parallel this orientation. Set IV appears to have developed from . stress relief from glacial unloading and/or valley erosion. Figure E.6.7 is a composite joint plot for the Watana dams ite. Table E.6.2 details the joint characteristics. (ii} Shears and Fracture Zones Several shears, fracture zones, and alter at ion zones are present at the site (Figure E.6.5). For the most part, they are small and discontinuous. All zones greater than 10 feet in width have been delineated as GF on the geologic map (Figure E.6.5). Shears are defined as having breccia, gouge, and/or slickenslides indicating relative movement. Two forms of shearing are found at the site. The first type is found only in the diorite and is characterized by E-6-14 - - - - - - - """ I ' 1. 2. 5 -Watana Damsite breccia of sheared rock that has been rehealed into a matrix of very fine grained andesite/diorite. These shear zones have high rock quality designations (RQDs) and the rock is fresh and hard. The second type is common to all rock types and consists of unhealed breccia and/or gouge. These shear zones are soft, friable, and often have secondary mineralization of carbonate and chlorite showing slickenslides. These zones are generally less than one foot wide. Fracture zones are also common to all rock types and range from 6 inches to 30 feet (0.15 - 9 m) wide ( gen- erally less than 10 feet). These zones are closely spaced joints that are often iron oxide stained or carbonate coated. Where exposed, the zones trend to form to po graph i c 1 o ws . Alteration zones are areas where hydrothermal sol u- tions have caused the chemical breakdown of the feld- spars and mafic m·ineral s. The degree of alteration encountered is highly variable across the site. These zones are rare 1 y seen in outcrop as they are easily eroded into gullies, but were encountered in all the boreholes. The transition bet\'.een fresh and altered rock is gradational. The zones may range to 20 feet (6 m) thick although are usually less than 5 feet (1.5m). 2. 5. 3 -Structural Features The Watana site has several significant geologic features con- sisting of shears, fractures, and alteration zones described pre- viously (Figure E.6.5). The t~ most prominent areas have been named "The Fins" and the "Fingerbuster.11 "The Fins" is located on the north bank of the river upstream from the diversion tunnel intake. It is an area approximately 400 feet (120m) wide, characterized by three major north\'.est trending zones of shearing and alteration that have eroded into steep gullies. These alteration zones are separated by intact rock bands (ribs) 5 to 50 feet (1.5-15m) wide. The 20-foot-wide (6 m) upstream zone of the series coincides with the diorite/ andesite porphyry contact. The other tWJ zones, approx i- mately 55 and 30 feet (16.5-9 m) wide, are filled with severely altered rock. This zone trends 310° with a near vertical dip. The extension of the zone has been extrapolated to extend north- westward outcropping in Tsusena Creek. The "Fingerbuster" is located downstream from the dansite and is exposed in a 40-foot-wide, deep, talus-filled gully along the andesite porphyry/diorite contact (Figure E.6.5). The rock is E-6-15 2.5-Watana Damsite severely weathered with closely spaced joints trending para 11 e 1 to Set I (330°) and Set III (0°). Slickenslides indicate verti- cal displacement. The extension of this zone to the south is based on a strong north-south topographic 1 i neament. Because of the lack of exposure, its location and extent have been approxi- mated. A prominent alteration zone was encountered on the south bank where a dri 11 hole encountered approximately 200 feet (60 m) of hydrothermally altered rock. Although core recovery in this boring was good, the quality of rock was relatively poor. 2.5.4 -Ground Water Conditions The ground water regime in the bedrock is confined to movement along fractures and joints. The water table is a subdued replica of the surface topography. Water levels on the right abutment are deep, ranging from about 110 to 280 feet (33 -84 m). Ground water conditions on the south abutment are complicated because of the apparent continuous thick permafrost resulting in a perched water table near surface and a deep table below the frost. 2.5.5 -Permafrost Conditions Permafrost conditions exist on the north-facing slopes (left bank) of the damsite area. Measurements indicate that permafrost exists to a depth of 200 to 300 feet ( 60 -90 m). Temperature measure- ments show the permafrost to be "warm" (within 1 °F [1 °C] of freez- ing). No permafrost was found on the north abutment but sporadic areas of frost can be expected. 2.5.6 -Permeability The rock permeability does not vary s i gni fi cant ly6 within the site are~, generally ranging betweeg 3.28 x 10-ft/seg (1 x 10-em/sec) to 3.3 x 10-ft/sec · (1 x 10-em/sec). The permeability is controlled by a degree of fractures within the rock, with the higher permeability occurring in the more sheared and fractured zone. Permeabilities tend to decrease with depth (Figure E.6.7). 2.5.7-Relict Channels (a) Watana Relict Channel A relict channel exists north of the Watana damsite. The location of this preglacial feature is shown in Figure E.6.9. The maximum depth of overburden in the thalweg channel, as shown in Figure E.6.9, is approximately 450 feet (135 m). E-6-16 ~- - - - - ..... - - - - - 2. 6 -Devil Canyon Dams ite (b) The stratigraphy in the channel has been described by a num- ber of stratigraphy units shown in Figures E.6.10 and E.6.11 as A through K. A detailed discussion of the Watana Relict Channel is presented in Section 6 of kres 1982b report. Fog Lakes Buried Channel In the area between the Watana dansite and the higher ground some 5 miles (8 km) to the southeast, the bedrock surface dips to 350 feet (105m) below ground surface, or 174 feet (52 m)below maximum pool elevation. The channel is overlain by glacial deposits (Figure E.6.12). A .discussion of the Fog Lakes Buried Channel is presented in Section 7 of .Acres 1982 b report. 2. 5. 8 -Borrow Sites Extensive investigations have been conducted both prior to and during the current studies to identify quantities of suitable materials for the construction of an embankment dan and for con- crete aggregate. Detailed discussion of these borrow and quarry sites is presented in both k res 1982a and 1982 b reports . A total of seven borrow sites and three quarry sites have been identified for dam construction material delineated as sites A, B, C, D, E, F, H, I, J, and L (Figure E.6.13). Of these, Borrow Sites 0 and H are considered as potential sources for semi- pervious to pervious material; Sites C, E, and F for granular material; Sites I and J for pervious gravel; and Quarry Sites A, B, and L for rockfill. Several of these sites ( B, C, F, and H) were not considered as primary sites for this project because of lengthy haul distaqce-to the dansite, adverse environmental im- pacts, insufficient quantities, and poor quality material. IE- tailed discussion of material properties, geology, and quantities are addressed in kres 1982a and 1982b reports. In SIJllmary, estimated reserves of borrow and quarry materials from the primary sources are: Quarry Site A Quarry Site D Quarry SHe E Borrow Sites I & J 2. 6 -Devil Canyon Damsite 2.6.1-Introduction = 70 -100 mcy = 180 mcy = 80-90 mcy = 200 mcy A detailed description of the site investigations and the geo- logic and geotechnical conclusions at the Devil Canyon site is provided in the k.res 1982a and 1982b reports. The following is a brief summary and interpretation of the findings presented in those reports. E-6-17 2. 6 -Devil Canyon Damsite 2.6.2 -Geologic Conditions The overburden and bedrock conditions at the Devil Canyon site are summarized in the following paragraph. A geologic map of the damsite area is shown in Figure E.6.14 in this section. (a) Overburden The valley walls at the Devil Canyon site are very steep and are generally covered by a thin veneer of overburden con- sisting primarily of talus at the base. A top of bedrock map is shown in Figure E.6.15. The flatter upland areas are covered by 5 to 35 feet (1.5 -10.5 m) of overburden of glacial origin. A topographic depression along the elonga- ted 1 akes on the south bank has an overburden cover in excess of 85 feet (25.5 m) of glacial materials. The over- burden on the alluvial fan or point bar deposit at the Cheechako Creek confluence thickens from 100 feet (30m) to more than 300 feet (90 m) over a distance of less than 400 feet (120 m). The river channel alluvium appears to be composed of cob- bles, boulders, and detached blocks of rock and is inferred to be up to 30 feet {9 m) thick. (b) Bedrock Lithology The bedrock at the Devil Canyon site is a low-grade, meta- morphosed sedimentary rock consisting predominantly of argillite with interbeds of graywacke (Figure E.6.14). The argillite is a fresh, medium to dark gray, thinly bedded, fine grained argillaceous rock with moderately well- developed foliation parallel to the bedding. The graywacke is a fresh, light gray, mainly fine grained sandstone within an argillaceous matrix. The graywacke is well indurated and exhibits poorly developed to nonexistent fo.liation. The graywacke is interbedded with the argillite in beds general- ly 1 ess than six inches thick. Contacts between beds are tight, and both rock types are fresh and hard. Minor quartz veins and stringers are commonly found in the argillite. These are generally less than one foot wide and unfractured with tight contacts. Sulphide mineralization is common, with pyrite occurring in as much as five percent of the rock. The area has also been intruded by numerous felsic and mafic dikes ranging from 1 inch (2. 5 em) to 60. feet wide (18 m) (averaging 20 feet [6 m]). The dikes have northwest to north orientation (Figure E.6.14) with steep dips. When E-6-18 - ~I """i ' - - 2. 6 -Devil Canyon Dam site closely fractured they are easily eroded and tend to form steep, talus-filled gullies, some of which exhibit shearing with the host rock. The felsic dikes are light gray and include aplite and rhyolite. The mafic dikes are fine grained and appear to be of diorite to diabase composition. (c) Bedrock Structures ( i ) ( i i) Bedding The argillite/graywacke has been severely deformed as evidenced by refolded folds and the developnent of multiple foliations. The primary foliation parallels the bedding at 035° to 090°, subparallel to the river, and dips 45° to 80° SE (Figure E.6.14). Where exposed, the foliation planes appear slaty and phyl- litic. The north canyon wall at the dc.msite appears to be controlled by the bedding planes and dips 45° to 80° SE. Where exposed, the foliation planes appear slaty and phyllitic. The north canyon wall at the dc.msite appears to be controlled by the bedd·ing planes. Joints Four joint sets have been delineated at Devil Canyon. Set I (strikes 320° to 355° and dips 60° to 70° NE) and Set II (strikes 040° to 065° and dips 40° to 60°S) are the most significant. A composite jo·int plot is shown in Figure E.6.16. Set I joints are the most prom·inent with spacing of 15 feet to 2 feet (4. 5 -0. 6m), and on the upper canyon walls of the south bank these joints are open as much as 6 inches (15 an). Set III is subparallel to the bedding/ foliation and, when it intersects with Set I, can cause the formation of loose blocks. Set III joints (strHes 005° to 030° and dip 85° NW to 85° SE) are also often open on the south bank and W1ere they dip towards the river they may create potential sl ·ip planes. This set has variable spacing and sporadic distribution. The fourth set is a minor set with low dip angles and variable strike orientation. Joint spacings measured from the borehole cores range from less than 1 foot (0.3 m) to more than 10 feet (3 m) for the most part. Based on RQD measurements and water pressure test data, the spacing and tight- ness of the joints increase with depth (Section 7, Acres 1982a). E-6-19 2.6-Devil Canyon Damsite Tables E.6.3 and E.6.4 characterize the joints at Devil Canyon. {iii) Shears and Fracture Zones Shears and fracture zones were encountered in loca- lized areas of the site in both outcrops and bore- holes {Figure E.6.14). Shears are defined as areas containing breccia, gouge, and/or sl ikensl ides indi- cating relative movanent. These zones are soft and friable and are characterized by high permeability and core loss during drilling. Fracture zones, often encountered in conjunction with the shears, are zones of very closely spaced joints. With depth, these zones become tighter and more widely spaced. Where exposed, they are eroded into deep gullies. The most common trend of these features is northwest, parallel to Joint Set I. These zones have vertical to steep northeast dips and are generally less than one foot wide. Northw=st trending shears are also associated with the contacts betw=en the argillite and mafic dikes and are up to 1 foot (0.3m) wide. A second series of shears trend northeasterly, sub- paralleling the bedding/foliation and Joint Set II, with high angle southeasterly dips. These average less than 6 inches (15 011) in width. 2.6.3-Structural Features Several structural features at the [)evil Canyon site were inves- tigated during the 1980-1981 program (Jlcres 1982a). In summary, these included the east-west trending sheared and fractured zone beneath the proposed saddle dan area; a bedrock drop-off beneath Borrow Site G; and bedrock conditions beneath the Su s i t n a R i v er . Seismic refraction and drilling data confirm the existence of a highly sheared and fractured zone on the left bank beneath the proposed saddle dan that generally trends parallel to the river. The dip on this feature is inferred to be parallel or subparallel to the bedding/foliation at approximately 65° to the south. The linear extent of the feature has not been determined but may be up to 2500 feet (755m). No evidence was found during the 1980-81 program to suggest movanent along this feature. This conclusion was confirmed during the seismic investigations (Jlcres 1982a). Further investigation of this feature will be required to define its extent and to determine the type of foundation treatment that will be required beneath the saddle dan. E-6-20 - - - - - ~I ~i .... I .... - ..... - - ~I r I r r r 2. 6 -Dev i1 Can)Gn Dam site Upstream from the damsite, a dropoff of several hundred feet was detected in the bedrock surface under the. alluvial fan by seismic refraction surveys. Land access restrictions imposed during the study prohibited any further investigation of this area. Pos- sible explanation for this apparent anomalous dropoff could be attributed to misinterpretation of the seismic data or else the lower velocity material could be either a highly fractured rock in lieu of soil or an offset of the rock surface caused by fault- ing. The 1 atter interpretation is unlikely, in that work per- formed in this area gave rise to the conclusion that there was no compelling evidence for a fault. Future work remains to be done in this area to define this feature more clearly. Detailed exanination of rock core and mapping in the river valley bottom showed no evidence for through-going faulting in the riverbed. 2.6.4-Ground Water Conditions Ground water migration within the rock is restricted to joints and fractures. It is inferred that the ground water level is a subdued replica of the surface topography with the flow towards the river and lakes. Measured water levels in the boreholes varied from ground surface to 120 feet (36 m) deep. 2.6.5-Permafrost Although no permafrost was found in either the bedrock or surfi- cial material at or around the dansite, additional instrllTlenta- tion will be required to accurately define the subsurface thermal regime. Aerial photo interpretation suggests the potential of permafrost in some areas of the south abutment (see Section 2. 7). 2. 6. 6 -Permeability Rock permeability ranges from approximately 3. 28 x 1o-6 ft/ sec (lx10-4cmfsec) to 3.3x10-8ftfsec (1x1o-6 em/sec) with lower permeabil ities generally at depth. Higher permeability occurs in the more weathered fractured rock zones (Figure E. 6.17). 2. 6. 7-Geology Along Proposed Long Tailrace Tunnel (a) Introduction This section discusses the lithology and structure along the proposed long tailrace tunnel for the Devil Canyon dansite. Reconnaissance mapping was done along the Susitna River from about 2500 feet ( 750 m) to 10,000 feet (3000 m) downstream from the site. Rock exposures are nearly continuous from the dansite to the bend in the river where the proposed por- tal area is located. From-that point downstream, outcrops are scattered and poor 1 y expo sed . E-6-21 2. 6 -Devil Canyon Damsite (b) Lithology As in the area of the main dan, the 1 itho 1 ogy along the pro- posed tailrace consists of interbedded argillite and gray- wacke which have been intruded by mafic and felsic dikes. The argillite is medilJll to dark gray, very fine to fine grained argillaceous rock with occasional grains of fine to medilm sand. The graywacke is medilJll grained, light to medillll gray within a matrix of very fine grained argillite. The interbeds of argillite and graywacke are generally 6 inches (15 em) thick. Contacts between beds are sharp and tight. Bedding is parallel to weakly developed foliation. Bedding foliation strikes generally northeast with moderate dips to the southeast. A secondary foliation (which is poorly developed at the damsite) is locally well developed near the proposed tunnel portal. The secondary foliation strikes nearly north-south with high angle dips to the northwest. The argillite and graywacke have been intruded by nlJllerous quartz veins and stringers at the dansite. Felsic and mafic dikes were mapped in outcrops along the river and to the north of the tunnel route. The lithology and structure of these dikes are similar to those found at the dansite. The felsic dikes consist of tWJ varieties: rhyo 1 ite and granodiorite. The rhyo 1 ite dikes are 1 ig ht yellowish gray to gray. The texture is aphanitic to fine grained with fine to medilJll grained quartz phenocrysts. The granodiorite dikes are primarily medilm grained plagioclase phenocrysts in a fine grained groundmass of plagioclase, orthoclase, biotite, and quartz. The felsic dikes are gen- erally slightly to moderately weathered, medillll hard, with very close to closely spaced joints. Iron oxide staining is common. Widths are generally 10 to 20 feet (3-6m). Con- tacts with argillite and graywacke are generally fractured and/or sheared. Up to 3-foot-wide (1 m) contact metamorphic zones are common in the adjacent argillite and graywacke. The felsic dikes strike northwest and northeast. ~lafic dikes are generally dark green to dark gray. These dikes are fresh to slightly weathered and hard. Mafic dikes are composed of feldspar in a fibrous groundmass with acces- sory pyroxene, biotite, hornblende, and calcite. These a·ikes are generally 2 to 10 feet (0. 6 - 3 m) wide and trend northwest with high angle vertical dips. Like the felsic dikes, the mafic dike contacts are generally sheared and/or fractured. Joint spacing is very close to closely spaced. E-6-22 -I I - - - - - - - - - r - - 2. 6 -Devil Canyon Dams ite (c) Structures Joints sets and shear/fracture zones similar to those mapped at the dcmsite are likely to occur along the tailrace tunnel (Figure E. 6. 18) . The four joint sets identified at the dansite continue down- stream; however, variations in orientation and dip occur. Table E.6.4 contains a list of joint characteristics for joints along the tailrace tunnel. Joint Set I is northwest trending with moderate to high angle dips to the northeast and southwest. The average strike and dip of this set in the tailrace area are 325° and 70° northeast, respectively, which differ slightly from its average orientation in the dcmsite of 340° and 80° north- east. Spacings are highly variable but average about 1. 5 feet (0. 5 m). The river flows parallel to this set in the vicinity of the outlet portal. Joint Set II includes joints parallel and subparallel to the bedding/foliation planes. This set strikes 065° with mode- rate (60°) dips to the southeast. The strike is essentially the same as at the damsite, although the dip is slightly steeper. Joint Set III strikes nearly north-south at an average of 022°. Dips are variable from 63° east to 84° west. The strike of Set III is similar to that found on the south bank of the dansite; but about 30° more northerly than the aver- age strike found on the north bank. Dips are generally sim- ilar to those at the dansite. Set III joints are well developed in the vicinity of the outlet portal. Joint Set IV consists of low-angle (dipping less than 40°) joints of various orientations. Although no shears or fracture zones were found during the reconnaissance mapping downstream from the dcmsite, it is anticipated that several such features will be encountered along the tunnel. These shears and fracture zones will likely be less than 10 feet (3m) wide and spaced from 300 to 500 feet (90-150m) apart. Preliminary investigations suggest that the tailrace tunnels will intersect any shear/ fracture zones at near right ang 1 es thereby minimizing sup- port requirements. 2.6.8-Borrow Sites Borrow Site G, the alluvial fan immediately upstream from the dcrn (Figure E.6.14), has been identified as a source of granular material for concrete aggregate. E-6-23 2.7 -Reservoir Geology A reserve of about 3 mcy, with an additional 3 mcy potential reserve, has been estimated for this borrow source. Details of material properties have been included in Acres 1982a and 1982b reports. Tests performed during 1980-82 indicate a variation of material properties within the borrow site. Therefore, addi- tional testing will be required to confirm adequate source of suitable materials. A rock quarry area designated as Borrow Site K has been 'identi- fied approximately 5300 feet (1590 m) south of the saddle dam. This area contains a granodiorite similar to rock found at the Watana dams ite. 2.7 -Reservoir Geology 2.7.1-Watana (a) General The topography of the Watana Reservoir and adjacent slopes is characterized by a narrow, V-shaped, stream-cut valley superimposed on a broad, U-shaped, glacial valley. Sur- ficial deposits mask much of the bedrock in the area, espe- cially in the lower and uppermost reaches of the reservoir. A surficial geology map of the reservoir, prepared by the COE, and airphoto interpretation performed during this study identified tills, lacustrine and alluvial deposits, as well as predominant rock types. Details of this photoanalysis are contained in Appendix J of Acres 1982a report. Addi- tional geologic and surficial mapping in the Watana damsite areas are contained in Acres 1982b report. (b) Surficial Deposits Generally, the lower section of the Watana Reservoir and adjacent slopes are covered by a veneer of glacial till and lacustrine deposits. Two main types of till have been iden- tified in this area: ablation and basal tills. The basal till is predominately over-consolidated, with a fine grain matrix (more silt and clay) and low permeability. The abla- tion till has fewer fines and a somewhat higher permeabil- ity. Lacustrine deposits consist primarily of poorly graded fine sands and silts with lesser amounts of gravel and clay, and exhibit a crude stratification. On the south side of the Susitna River, the Fog Lakes area is characteristic of a fluted ground moraine surface. Up- stream in the Watana Creek area, gl aciol acustri ne material forms a broad, flat plain which mantles the underlying glacial till and the partially lithified Tertiary sediments. Significant disintegration features such as kames and eskers have been observed adjacent to the river valley. E-6-24 - - .... - - F"' I - ~ I _, ..... 2. 7 -Reservoir Geology Permafrost exists in the area, as evidenced by ground ice, patterned ground stone nets, and sl unpi ng of the glacial till overlying permafrost. Numerous sl ur1ps have been iden- tified in the Watana reservoir area, especially in sediments compris·ing basal till. In addition, nunerous areas of fro- zen alluviun and interstitial ice crystals have been ob- served in outcrops and identified from drill hole drive samples. Areas of potential permafrost and current slope instability for the Watana and ~vn Canyon reservoirs are shown in Figures E.6.19 to E.6.45. (c) Bedrock Geology The Watana dansite is underlain by a diorite pluton. Approximately three miles upstream from the Watana damsite, a nonconformable contact between argillite and the dioritic pluton crosses the Susitna River. An approximate location of this contact has also been delineated on Fog Creek, four miles to the south of the dansite. Just downstream from the confluence of Watana Creek and the Susitna River, the bed- rock consists of semiconsol idated, Tertiary sediments and volcanics of Triassic age. These Triassic rocks consist of metavolcaniclastics and marble. Just upstream from Watana Creek to Jay Creek, the rock consists of a metavolcanogenic sequence predominantly composed of met am or pho sed flows and tuffs of basaltic to andesitic composition. From Jay Creek to just downstream from the Oshetna River, the reservoir is underlain by a metamorphic terrain of amphibolite and minor amounts of greenschist and foliated diorite. To the east of the Oshetna River, glacial deposits are predominant (Figure £.6.1). The main structural feature within the Watana Reservoir is the Talkeetna Thrust fault, which trends northeast-southwest and crosses the Susitna River approximately eight miles upstream from the Watana dansite. The southwest end of the fault is overla·in by unfaulted Tertiary volcanics (Figure E.6.1). 2. 7. 2 -Devil Canyon (a) Surficial and Bedrock Geology The topography in and around the Devil Canyon reservoir is bedrock-controlled. Overburden is thin to absent, except in the upper reaches of the proposed reservoir where alluvial deposits cover the valley floor. A large intrusive plutonic body, composed predominantly of biotite granodiorite with local areas of quartz diorite and E-6-25 2.7-Reservoir Geology diorite, underlies most of the reservoir and adjacent slopes. The rock is light gray to pink, medium grained and composed of quartz, feldspar, biotite, and hornblende. The most common mafic mineral is biotite. Where weathered, the rock has a light yellow-gray or pinkish yellow-gray color, except where it is highly oxidized and iron stained. The granodiorite is generally massive, competent, and hard with the exception of the rock exposed on the upland north of the Susitna River where the biotite granodiorite has been badly decomposed as a result of mechanical weathering. The other principal rock types in the reservoir area are the argi 11 ite and graywacke, which are exposed at the De vi 1 Canyon dams it e. The argillite has been intruded by the massive granodiorite, and as a result, large isolated roof pendants of argillite and graywacke are found locally throughout the reservoir and surrounding areas. The argillite/graywacke varies locally to a phyllite of low metamorphic grade, with possible isolated schist outcrops. The rock has been isoclinally folded into steeply dipping structures which generally strike northeast-southwest. The contact between the argillite and the biotite granodiorite crosses the Susitna River just upstream from the Devi 1 Canyon damsite. It is nonconformab l e and is characterized by an aphanitic texture with a wide chilled zone. The trend of the contact is roughly northeast-southwest where it crosses the river. Several large outcrops of the argillite completely surrounded by the biotite granodiorite are found within the Devil Creek area. E-6-26 - ..... - - - - 3 -IMPACTS 3.1-Reservoir-Induced Seismicity (RIS) 3.1.1-Introduction The potential for the possible future occurrence of reservoir- induced seismicity (RIS) in the vicinity of the proposed reser- voirs was evaluated. Reservoir-induced seismicity is defined here as the phenomenon of earth movement and resultant seismicity that has a spatial and temporal relationship to a reservoir and is triggered by nontectonic stress. Several reservoir-induced seismic events (at Kremasta, Greece; Koyna, India; Kariba, Zambia-Rhodesia; and Xinfengjiang, China) have exceeded magnitude (Ms) 6. Damage occurred to the dans at Koyna and Xinfengjiang, and additional property damage occurred at Ko yn a and Krem asta. Studies of the occurrence of RIS (WCC 1980), have shown that RIS is influenced by the depth and volUTJe of the reservoir, the fill- ing history of the reservoir, the state of tectonic stress in the shallow crust beneath the reservoir, and the existing pore pres- sures and permeability of the rock under the reservoir. Although direct measurements are difficult to obtain for some of these factors, indirect geologic and seismologic data, together with observations about the occurrence of RIS at other reserv airs, can be used to assess the potential for the possible effects of the occurrence of RIS at the proposed Project reservoirs. The scope of this study included: (a) a comparison of the depth, volUTJe, regional stress, geologic setting, and faulting at the Devil Canyon and Watana sites with the same parameters at compar- able reservoirs worldwide; (b) an assessment of the 1 ikel ihood of RIS at the sites based on the above comparison; (c) a review of the relationship between reservoir filling and the length of time to the onset of induced events and the length of time to the maximUTJ earthquake; (d) an evaluation of significance of these time periods for the sites; (e) the devel opnent of a model to assess the impact of RIS on groundmotion parameters; (f) a review of the relationship between RIS and method of reservoir filling; and (g) an assessment of the potential for 1 andsl ides resulting from RIS. For this study, the tw:> proposed reservoirs were considered to be one h)(irologic entity (designated the proposed D::!vil Canyon- Watana reservoir) because the hydrologic influence of the tw:> proposed reservoirs is expected to overlap in the area between the Watana site and the upstream end of the Devil Canyon reser- voir. The proposed D::!vil Canyon-Watana reservoir will be approximately 87 miles (140 km) long. The following parameters were used: E-6-27 3.1-RIS Devil Canyon Watana Combined Max. Water Depth 551 ft 725 ft 725ft Max. Water Vo 1 une 1. 09xlo6ac-ft 9. 52 xl o6 ac-ft 10. 6lxlo6ac-ft Stress Regime Compressional Compressional Compressional Bedrock Metanorphic Ingneous Ing neous The combined body of water, as proposed, would constitute a very aeep, very 1 arge reservoir within a primarily igneous bedrock terrain that is undergoing compressional tectonic stress. Details of this study are presented in WCC 1980 and 1982 reports. A sunmary of this study is presented in the following sections. 3. 1.2-Evaluation of Potential Occurrence (a) Likelihood of Occurrence For comparative purposes, a deep reservoir has a max imun water depth of 300 feet (90m) or deeper; a very deep reser- voir is 492 feet (150m) deep or deeper; a large reservoir has a max imun water vol une greater than 1 x 106 acre feet; and a very 1 arge reservoir has a volune greater than 8.1 x 106 acre feet. Twenty-one percent of all deep, very deep, or very 1 arge reservoirs have been subject to RIS. Thus, the 1 ikel ihood that any deep, very deep, or very 1 arge res- ervoir will experience RIS is 0.21. 1-bwever, the tectonic and geologic conditions at any specific reservoir may be more or less conducive to RIS occurrence. Models have been developed by Baecher and Keeney in Packer et al. (WCC 1980) to estimate the likelihood of RIS at a reservoir, characterized by its depth, volune faulting, geo- logy, and stress regime. The models from \'klich the likeli- hoods are calculated are sensitive to changes in data cl as- sification for the geologic and stress regime. The calcul a- tions from models, however, do not significantly influence the basic relatively high likelihood of RIS at the l):!vil Canyt>n-Watana reservoir considering its depth and volume. (b) Location and Maximum Magnitude Woodward-Clyde Consultants ( 1980), among others, has disc us- sed the concept, based on theoretical considerations and existing cases of RIS, that an RIS event is a naturally E-6-28 - - - - - ~-l r- 1 r r I ~I r- 1 - ..... 3.1-RIS occurring event triggered by the impoundment of a reservoir. That is, reservoirs are be1ieved to provide an incremental increase in stress that is 1 arge enough to trigger strain release in the form of an earthquake. In this manner, res- ervoirs are considered capable of triggering an earlier occurrence of an earthquake (i.e., of decreasing the recur- rence interval of the event) than \'.Quld have occurred if the reservoir had not been filled. In this regard, reservoirs are not considered capable of triggering an earthquake larger than that wtlich would have occurred 11 naturally.11 The portion of crust that a reservoir may influence is 1 im ited to the area affected by its mass and pore pressure influences. This area of influence is often referred to as a reservoir's hydrologic regime. Documented cases of RIS (Wee 1980) indicate that the RIS epicenters occur within an area that is related to the surface area that the reservoir covers. For the purposes of this study, the hydrologic regime of· the proposed reservoir has been described as an envelope with a 19-mile (30 km) radius that encompasses the reservoir area, as discussed in wee 1980. Previous studies (Wee 1980) present evidence that strongly suggests that moderate to large RIS events are expected to occur only along faults with recent displacement. Jlrnong the reported cases of RIS, at least 10 have had magnitudes of (Ms) 5. Field reconnaisance and information available in the . literature indicate that Quaternary or late eenozo ic surface fault rupture (i.e., rupture on faults with recent displacement) occurred within the hydrologic regime of eight of these ten reservoirs (wee 1980). On the basis of this investigation, it has been concluded that there are no faults with recent displacement within the hydrologic regime of the proposed reservoir. Therefore, the maximum earthquake which could be triggered by the reservoir is an earthquake with a magnitude below the detection level of currently available techniques (i.e., the detection-level earthquake). Thus, the magnitude of the 1 argest earthquake that could be triggered by the proposed reservoir is judged to be (Ms) 6, which is the maximun magnitude of the detec- tion level earthquake. Based on model studies (Wee 1982), this event is most likely to occur within a 20-mile (32 km) belt on either side of the reservoir. E-6-29 3.2 -Seepage As the result of construction of the Watana and Devil Canyon dams and the impoundment of the reservoirs, one of the main potential impacts will be the possible seepage through and around the dams. Speci fica lly, as in any dam, there wi 11 be the tendency for seepage through the foundation rock. Permeabilities in the foundation of both dams are not high and are amenable to grouting. Buried channels which bypass the dam present the only other seepage path of concern at either of the two damsites. At the Devi 1 Canyon site, the channel on the south bank does not present a problem, since the saddle dam will be constructed across it with adequate foundation preparation and grouting. At the Watana site there are two channels which will be impacted by increased seepage gradients. The channel to the south of the river in the Fog Lakes area is not expected to pose seepage problems because of the low gradient and long travel distance (approximately 4-5 miles) (6.4 - 8 km) from the reservoir to Fog Creek. However, additional work will be required in this area to accurately determine subsurface conditions. The relict channel north of the Watana site poses the greatest poten- tial for seepage, particularly through the deepest deposits on a path from the reservoir to Tsusena Creek. In addition to loss of water from the reservoir, the main impact of seepage through the buried channel area could result in piping and erosion of materials at the exit point on Tsusena Creek. A further potentia 1 impact is saturation of the various zones in the buried channel combined with the thawing of permafrost in this area. This could lead to a condition that could culminate in liquefaction of one of the horizons resulting in breaching of the reservoir rim. It could, most likely, occur during a strong earthquake, but could be triggered as the result of surface loading. The stratigraphy of the relict channel was defined during 1980-82 exploration work (Acres 1982a, 1982b). The preliminary results of that work show that there are no apparent widespread or continuous units within the relict channel that are susceptible to liquefaction. In addition, it appears that multiple periods of glaciation may have resulted in overconsoli- dating the majority of the unconsolidated sediments within the relict channel, thereby minimizing their potential for liquefaction. 3.3 -Reservoir Slope Failures 3.3.1 -General Shoreline erosion will occur as a result of two geologic proces- ses: (1} beaching, and (2} mass movement. The types of mass movement expected to occur within the reservoirs will be: E-6-30 - - - - - - r I I -I 3.3 -Reservoir Slope Failures -Bimodal flow; -Block slide; -Flows; -Multiple regressive flow; -Multiple retrogressive flow/slide; -Rotational slides, -Sk i n f 1 ows ; -Slides; and -Solifluction flow. Aside from the formation of beaches resulting from erosion, instability along the reservoir slopes can result from two prin- cipal causes: a change in the ground water regime and the thaw- ing of permafrost. Beach erosion can give rise to general instability through the sloughing or failure of an oversteepened backslope, thereby enlarging the beach area. (a) Changes in Ground Water Regime As a reservoir fills, the ground water table in the adjacent slope also rises. This may result in a previously stable slope above the ground water table becoming unstable because of increased pore pressures and seepage acting on the slope. Rapid drawdown of a reservoir may also result in increased instability of susceptible slopes. (b) Thawing of Permafrost (c) Solifluction slopes, skin flows, and the lobes of bimodal flows are caused by instability on low-angle slopes result- ing from thawing of permafrost. Mobility is often substan- tia 1 and rapid, as the movements are generally distributed throughout the mass. Stability During Earthquakes Submerged slopes in granular materials, particularly uniform fine sands, may be susceptible to liquefaction during earth- quakes. This is one example where a small slide could occur below the reservoir level. In addition, areas having a reservoir rim where the ground water table has reestab- lished itself could have a greater potential for sliding during an earthquake because of the increased pore water pressures. Thawing permafrost caul d generate excess pore pressures in some soils. In cases where this situation exists in lique- fiable soils, small slides on flat-lying slopes could occur. E-6-31 3. 3 -Reservoir Slope Failures The existence of fine-grained sands, coarse silts, and other 1 iquefaction susceptible material does not appear extensive in the reservoir areas. Therefore, it is considered that the extent of failures caused by 1 iquefaction during earth- quakes will be small and primarily limited to areas of per- mafrost thaw. No evidence of liquefaction was noted within the project area. Some slides could occur above the reser- voir level in previously unfrozen soils as the result of earthquake shaking. 3. 3. 2 -Slope Stability f>'odel s for Watana and Devil Canyon Reservoirs Following a detailed evaluation of the Watana and Devil Can)On reservoir geology, four general slope-stability models were defined for this study. These models are shown in Figures E. 6.19 and E. 6. 20 and consist of several types of beaching, flows, and slides that could occur in the reservoir during and after impoundment. Based on aerial photo interpretation and limited field reconnaissance, potentially unstable slopes in the reservoir were classified by one or more of these models as to the type of failure that may occur in specific areas. In addition to identifying potential slope--instability models around the reservoir, attempts were made to delineate areas of existing slope failures and permafrost regions. These maps are shown in Figures E.6.21 through E.6.45. As stated above, these maps have been constructed using photo interpretation and 1 imited field reconnaissance and are intended to be preliminary and subject to verification in subsequent studies. Further details of the slope stab-ility of the reservoirs is pre- sented in Appendix K of the 1980-81 Geotechnical Report (Jlcres 1982a) . 3.3.3-Devil Canyon Slope Stability and Erosion The Devil Canyon reservoir will be entirely confined within the walls of the present river valley. This reservoir will be narrow and deep with minimal seasonal draw:iown. From D=v il Canyon Creek downstream to the damsite, the slopes of the reservoir and its shoreline consist primarily of bedrock with localized areas of thin veneer of call uv iun or till. Upstream from Devil Can)On Creek, the slopes of the reservoi'r are covered with increasing amounts of unconsolidated materials, especially on the south abutment. These materials are principally basal tills, coarse- grained floodplain deposits, and alluvial fan deposits. E-6-32 - - - - - - - - - - - - 3.3 -Reservoir Slope Failure Existing slope failures in this area of the Susitna River, as defined by photogrammetry and limited field reconnaissance, are skin and bimodal flows in soil and block slides and rotational slides in rock. The basal tills are the primary materials susceptible to mass movements. On the south abutment, there is a possibility of sporadic permafrost existing within the delineated areas. Upstream from this area, the basal till is nearly contin- uously frozen as evidenced by field information in Borrow Area H. Downstream from the Devil Creek area, instability is largely reserved to small rock falls. Beaching will be the primary pro- cess acting on the shoreline in this area. Although this area is mapped as a basal till, the material is coarser grained than that which is found in the Watana Reservoir and is, therefore, more susceptible to beaching. In areas where the shoreline will be in contact with steep bed- rock cliffs, the fluctuation of the reservoir may contribute to rock falls. Fluctuation of the reservoir and, therefore. the ground water table, accompanied by seasonal fr~ezing and thawing, will encourage frost heaving as an erosive agent to accelerate degradation of the slope and beaching. These rock falls will be limited in extent and will not have the capacity to produce a 1 arge wave which caul d affect dam safety. In De vi 1 Creek. a potential small block slide may occur after the reservoir is filled. Above Devil Creek up to about River Mile (RM) 180, beaching will be the most common erosive process. Present slope instability above reservoir normal pool level will continue to occur, with primary beaching occurring at the shoreline. At approximately RM 175, there is an old landslide on the south abutment. This large rotational slide is composed of basal till which, for the most part, is frozen. A large bimodal flow exists within this block headed by a large block of ground ice. Yearly ablation of the ice results in flowage of saturated materia 1 downs 1 ope. The landslide has an accurate back scarp which has become completely vegetated since its last movement. However, this landslide, which has an estimated volume of 3.4 mcy, could possibly be reactivated as the result of continued thawing or change in the ground water regime brought about with reservoir filling. Since the maximum pool elevation extends only to the toe of this slide, it is unlikely that a large catastrophic slide could result from normal reservoir impoundment. However, potential for an earthquake-induced landslide is possible. A mass slide in this area could result in temporary blockage of river flow. In summary, the following conclusions can be made regarding the Devil Canyon reservoir slope stability: E-6-33 3. 3 -Reservoir Slope Failure -The lack of significant depths of unconsolidated materials along the 1 ower slopes of the reservoir and the existence of stable bedrock conditions are indicative of stable slope condi- tions after reservoir impounding. -A large old landslide in the upper reservoir has the potential for instab"il ity, which, if failed, could conceivably create a temporar~ blockage of the river in this area. The probability of a landslide-induced wave in the reservoir overtopping the d<111 is remote. 3. 3. 4 -Watana Slope Stability and Erosion Most of the slopes within the Watana reservoir are composed of unconsolidated materials. As a generalization, permafrost is nearly continuous in the basal tills and sporatic to continuous in the lacustrine deposits. The distribution of permafrost has been delineated primarily on the flatter slopes below an eleva- tion of 2300 feet (700m) (Figures E.6.13 through E.6.45). In- cl·ined slopes may be underlain by permafrost, but based on aerial photo reconnaissance, the active layer is much thicker indicating that permafrost soils are thawing, and/or that permafrost does not exist. Existing slope instability within the reservoir (as defined by aerial photographic interpretation and limited field reconnaissance) indicates that the types of mass movEment are primarily solifluction, skin flows, bimodal flows, and small ro- tational slides. These types of failure occur predominantly in the basal till or areas where the basal till is overlain by lacustrine deposits. In some cases, solifluction, which origi- nated in the basal till, has proceeded downslope over some of the f1 oodpl ai n terraces. Three major factors which will contribute significantly to slope instability in the Watana Reservoir are changes in the ground water regime, 1 arge seasonal f1 uctuat ion of the reservoir 1 ev el (estimated at 100 feet [ 30 m] ) , and thawing of permafrost. It is estimated that filling of the reservoir to normal pool level will take approximately three years. Because of the rel a- tively slow rate of impounding, the potential for slope instabil- ity occurring during flooding of the reservoir will be minimal and confined to shallow surface flows and possibly some sliding. Slopes will be more susceptible to slope instability after im- poundment when thawing of the permafrost so"il s occurs and the ground water regime has reestablished itself in the frozen soils. Near the dansite, assuming that the present contours will remain unchanged, the north abutment will primarily be subject to beach- ing except for some small flows and slides that may occur adja- cent to Ceadman Creek. On the south abutment, thawing of the E-6-34 - - - - - - - 3. 3-Reservoir Slope Fan ures frozen basal tills wi 11 result in nLJTJerous skin and bimodal flows. There is also a potential for small rotational sliding to occur primarily opposite Deadman Creek. On the south bank bet~en the Watana damsite and Vee Canyon, the shoreline of the reservoir has a high potential for flows and shallow rotational slides. In contrast to the north bank, the shoreline is almost exclusively in contact with frozen basal tills, overburden is relatively thick, and steeper slopes are present. Thermal erosion, resulting from the erosion and thawing of the ice-rich, fine grained soils, will be the key factor influencing their stability. On the north bank below Vee Canyon and on both banks upstream from Vee Canyon, the geological and topographic conditions are more variable and, therefore, have a potential for varying slope conditions. In the Watana Creek drainage area, there is a thick sequence of lacustrine material overlying the basal till. Unlike the till, it appears that the lacustrine material is largely unfrozen. All four types of slope instability could develop here, depending on where the seasonal drav.down zone is in contact with the aforemen- tioned stratigraphy. In addition, slope instability resulting from potential liquefaction of the lacustrine material during earthquakes may occur. Overall, slopes on the north bank, in contrast with the south bank, are 1 ess steep and slightly better drained, which may be indicative of less continuous permafrost and/or slightly coarse material at the surface with a deeper active 1 aye r . In general, the potential for beaching is high because of: (a) the wide seasonal draw:lown zone that will be in contact with a thin veneer of colluviLJTJ over bedrock; and (b) the large areas around the reservoir with low slopes. In the Oshetna-Goose Creeks area, there is a thick sequence of lacustrine material. Permafrost appears to be nearly continuous in this area based on the presence of unsorted polygonal ground and potential thermakarst activity around some of the many small ponds (thaw lakes/ kettles). The reservoir in this area will be primarily confined within the floodplain, and therefore, little modification of the slopes is expected. Where the slopes are steep, there could occur thermal niche erosion resulting in small rotational slides. Studies performed show that the potential for a large block slide occurring and generating a wave which could overtop the dan is very remote (Appendix A of kres l982c). For this to occur, a very high, steep slope with a potentially unstable block of large volLJTJe would need to exist adjacent to the reservoir. This E-6-35 3. 4 -Permafrost Thaw condition was not observed within the limits of the reservoir. In approximately the first 16 miles (26 km) upstream from the dam, the shoreline will be in contact with the low slopes of the broad, U-shaped valley. Between 16 and 30 miles ( 2 6 -48 km) upstream from the dan, no potentially large landslides were ob- served. Beyond 30 miles (48 km) upstream, the reservoir begins to meander and narrows; therefore, any wave induced in this area by a large landslide would, in all likelihood, dissipate prior to reaching the diJll. In general, the following conclusions can be drawn about the slope conditions of the Watana reservoir after impounding: -The principal factors influencing slope instability are the 1 arge seasonal dra~own of the reservoir and the thawing of permafrost soils. Other factors are the change in the ground water regime, the steepness of the slopes, coarseness of the material, thermal toe erosion, and the fetch avail able to gen- erate wave action; The potential for beaching is much greater on the north abut- ment of the reservoir; -A large portion of the reservoir slopes are susceptible to shallow slides, mainly skin and bimodal flows, and shallow rotational slides; -The potential for a 1 arge block slide that might generate a wave that could overtop the darn is remote; and -The period in which restabilization of the slopes adjacent to the reservoir will occur is largely unknown. In general, most of the reservoir slopes will be totally sub- merged. Areas where the filling is above the break in slope will exhibit less stability problems than those in which the reservoir is at an intermediate or low level. Flow slides induced by thaw- ing permafrost can be expected to occur over very flat-lying sur- f aces. 3. 4 -Permafrost Thaw The effect of thawing permafrost has already been discussed in relation to reservoir slope failures and 1 iquefaction potential above the relict channel at the Watana site. In addition to these tw impacts, thawing can also induce settlement to surface facilities constructed in areas of deep overburden north of the Watana diJllsite as well as cause increased seepage through the south abutment of the Watana diJll. E-6-36 ~' , .... - - - - - - 3.6 -Reservoir Freeboard for Wind Waves With regard to settlanent, it is anticipated that the freeboard dike, the airstrip, and the camps, as well as site roads, will all encounter areas of permafrost. Although the soils in this area are not ice rich, some settl anents will ace ur because of thawing of the permafrost. Since fractures in the rock below the south abutment of the Watana dan are ice-filled to approximately 200 feet (60 m), thawing of this perma- frost may cause additional seepage, even though thawing will be induced prior to grouting of the cutoff below the core. This thawing will be generated because of the thermal effect of the large reservoir ~ich will remain several degrees above freezing throughout the year. It is anticipated that thawing in the cutoff zone can be effectively accom- plished prior to grouting and that grouting the foundation below the core in this zone is feasible. 3.5-Seismically-Induced Failure Details of seismically-induced failures in the reservoir are addressed in Section 3. 3. Seismically-induced failure in the relict channel area has been add- ressed in Peres 1982b report. Work performed in the relict channel during 1980-82 shows that there are no continuous liquefiable soils in the upper 200-250 feet (60-75 m) of the channel. The access route and transmission lines in the immediate site area, that is between the Watana site and Gold Creek and between the Watana site and the Denali Highway, cross areas which have the potential for liquefaction, or landslides could occur during earthquakes. The same is true of the north and south transmission corridors, particularly in the area near Anchorage. Areas of high potential in the Stephan and Fog Lakes areas south of the Susitna River have been avoided. 3.6-Reservoir Freeboard for Wind Waves Studies were undertaken to determine freeboard requirements for wind- induced waves for the Watana and Devil Canyon dansites (Appendix A of Acres 1982c). Two effects of wind conditions were considered: wave run-up and wind set-up. Results of the study showed that the wave heights in both Watana and Devil Canyon reservoirs are governed by the respective fetch lengths. The narrowness and bends in the reservoirs reduce the effective fetch, and thus reduce wind-induced waves. The wind setup for both reservoirs was found to be 0.1 foot (3 em). Setup was found not to be significant, considering the degree of accuracy inherent in the wave height and run-up calculations. Wind-induced freeboard requirements of 5.2 feet (1.6 m) for a Watana rockfill dan and 3.4 feet (1.0 m) for Devil Canyon has been ·included in the total ,freeboard requirements. E-6-37 3.7-Development of Borrow Sites and Quarries The principal borrow sites to be developed for construction material will be Borrow Sites D, E, I, and J. Localized construction material for auxiliary facilities such as airstrips and camps may be provided from Borrow Sites F and C. Quarry rock, if required, will be provided from Quarry Sites A and L. Development of these sites will result in disturbance of the nat_ural terrain and impact on aesthetics, noise levels, and air quality. Impacts will be minimal for Borrow Sites E, I, and J, and Quarry L which will ultimately be inundated by either the Watana or Devil Canyon reservoirs. In addition, these sites are sufficiently removed from the camp facilities to minimize noise and air quality impacts. Current design scheme does not anticipate major development of Quarry A. Therefore, the principal impact will be in the development of Borrow Site D. Although the method of excavation of this site will be developed in the subsequent design phases, it is anticipated that the upper 2-3 feet (0.6 -0.9 m) of soil and organic material will be stripped and stockpiled. Trenching and ditching will 1 ikely be excavated throughout the borrow site to provide for free drainage and rapid runoff of surface water. The borrow site will be developed in stages using high soil cuts to allow for selective mining and mixing of material. E-6-38 - - - - - - !""" I i r -[ 4 -MITIGATION 4. 1 -Impacts and Hazards Six impacts which will or could be generated because of construction of the Sus itna project are: -Reservoir-induced seismicity; -Seepage; -Reservoir slope failures; -Permafrost thaw; -Seismically-induced failure; and -Borrow site and quarry developnent. The effect of these impacts on the project and mitigating measures are discussed in this section. In addition to the above mentioned impacts, the avoidance of geologic hazards is also addressed. 4.2-Reservoir-Induced Seismicity The magnitude of an earthquake generated by the effect of the reservoir will not exceed the magnitude of any earthquake which ~uld normally occur in the Talkeetna Terra·in. Therefore, the detection-level earth- quake developed for the project will provide the design criteria for any reservoir-induced earthquakes. In order to monitor the effect of reservoir-induced earthquakes, a com- plete long-term monitoring program will be instituted in the region which will be installed prior to completion of the project. This sys- tem will provide earthquake data on all earthquakes in the region in- cluding all those induced by the effect of the reservoir. Considera- tions of the correlations between filling curves and seismicity for other cases of RIS has been rev ie\\ed, and it appears that sudden changes in water levels and sudden deviations in rate of water level change can be triggers of induced seismicity. A controlled, smooth- filling curve, with no sudden changes in filling rate, should be less likely to be accompanied by ·induced seismicity than rapid, highly fluctuating filling rates. The filling rate for the Watana reservoir covers three years, which is relatively slow. Seasonal variations are steady and do not fluctuate rapidly. The Devil Can}Qn reservoir fills more rapidly, but is held steady with very 1 ittle seasonal variation. E-6-39 4.4-Reservoir Slope Failures 4.3 -Seepage Seepage normally occurring through the foundation rock below each of the dams will be controlled by two means: the installation of a grout curtain and by a pattern of drain holes drilled from the gallery below the dams. The effects of these is to reduce the amount of seepage as well as control the downstream internal pressures in the rock by the pressure relief affected by the drain holes. Should excessive seepage develop during impoundment, prov1s1ons have been made in the design for the construction of underground grouting galleries which will provide access for remedial grouting. In addi- tion, extensive instrumentation of the dam and abutments will be implaced during postconstruction for long-term monitoring of seepage. Pre 1 i mi nary assessment of seepage rates through the Watana Re 1 i ct Channel, assuming certain permeabi 1 ities, suggests that there is no negligible impact on project operation (Acres 1982b). However, a two- step approach is proposed in handling this potential problem. First, a more detailed drilling program will be initiated at the beginning of 1983 to investigate the materials at depth in the channel. This will provide data on grain size, permeability, continuity of horizons and, hence, the potential for seepage. Second, the design provides for a downstream filter to control piping should it occur. Materials would be stockpiled and used for construc- tion of filters to control exit gradients at locations where seepage is observed. 4.4 -Reservoir Slope Failures Some amount of slope failure will be generated in the Watana and Devil Canyon reservoirs as a result of reservoir filling and seasonal fluctu- ation. The principal slope failures will occur in the Watana reservoir where there are greater amounts of surficial deposits and permafrost. It is anticipated that skin flows, minor slides, and breaching will be a long-term progressive activity as a result of seasonal fluctuation of the reservoir and thawing of permafrost. Tree root systems, left from reservoir clearing, will tend to hold shallow surface slides and, in some cases where permafrost exists, may have a stabilizing influence, since the mat will hold the soil in place until excess pore pressure has dissipated. l"lany of the slides will occur underwater, thereby leaving no impact on the project area. Other slides occurring along the rim of the reservoir are expected to be localized. After failure, wave action will likely result in the creation of new beaches along these new slopes. The magnitude of waves generated in the reservoir because of slides has been evaluated and found to pose no threat to the safety of the dams. E-6-40 - ~I I - - - r - - 4.7-Geologic Hazards Additional freeboard has also been provided at the Watana dan so that the effect of slides into the reservoir is further minimized. Normal freeboard at normal maximum water surface elevation at Watana is 22 feet (6. 6 m). The relatively small fluctuation in the reservoir levels at the ~vil Canyon site will mitigate against ongoing slope failures. f1:J nitori ng of key slopes will be initiated prior to impoundment, par- ticularly the 1 arge slide mass identified in the upper reaches of the Devil Canyon reservoir as well as areas having the potential for l,arger slides in the Watana reservoir. 4. 5 -Permafrost Thaw Two possible impacts will be felt because of permafrost thaw, both at the Watana site: settlement of facilities in areas of deep overburden and increased seepage through the dcrn foundation. Adequate structural design is possible to mitigate against the hazards of settlement in permafrost areas. In the case of the main construc- tion camp, a large pad of granular material has been provided which w·ill evenly distribute the load and insulate the subsoil, hence, retarding thaw. Regrading of the airstrip and monitoring of settlements at the free- board dike wi 11 be necessary as a maintenance program to offset the effects of differential settlement in these areas. The permanent camp is located in an area relatively free of permafrost and on good soils to prevent 1 ong-term prob 1 ems. 4.6-Seismically-Induced Failure If subsequent studies show the potential for liquefaction in the buried channel area, it is feasible to excavate through this horizon and re- build the freeboard dike foundation to a point below this lajer. Seismically-induced failure of reservoir slopes, although possible, wi 11 not be hazardous to the project. The design of the main structures have been analyzed to accommodate the ground motions induced by the maximum credible earthquake. Therefore, the overall safety of the project is assured with the safety of the major structures. 4.7-Geologic Hazards There are only three main geologic structures which can have an affect on the construction and operation of the power facilities at the tv.o E-6-41 4.8-Borrow and Quarry Sites sites. These are the short shear zone south of the parallel to the river at Devil Can)On, 11 The Fins 11 feature upstream from the Watana site, and the 11 Fingerbuster 11 zone downstream from the Watana site. At the Watana site, all of the main project features have been located between the tv.o features, 11 The Fins 11 and the 11 Fingerbuster,11 thus avoiding the need to tunnel through these shear zones. Since the main concrete dam does not cross potentially hazardous geolo- gic features at Devil Canyon, no danger to the structure is posed. Tunneling through such a feature could pose problems with large tun- nels. However, only the small drainage gallery is planned to pass beneath the sadd 1 e dan. 4. 8 -Borrow and Quarry Sites All temporary access roads will be graded, recontoured, and seeded fol- lowing abandonment. Areas near streams or rivers, where erosion may occur, will be riprapped during the construction period and reseeded when construction is complete. Borrow sites will be excavated only if necessary and will either be regraded and seeded with appropriate species, or, if excavation is deep enough, converted to ponds. Rock excavated and not used in construction will be placed as riprap, used as backfill in the borrow site, or disposed of in areas which will be inundated by the reservoir. E-6-42 - - - - - - - - I~ .... r ..... GLOSSARY Andesitic -from andesite rock which is fine grained extrusive rock Aphanitic-pertaining to a texture of rocks in which the crystalline constituents are too small to be distinguished with the unaided eye Argillite-a compact rock derived from mudstone on shale Breccia (shears) -fragmented rock whose components are angular; may be rock which is crushed due to shearing Chert -small piece of compact rock such as flint or silica Clastic flow -the method of sediment transport of volcaniclastic sediments Felsic-a general term applied to igneous rock having lig~t colored minerals; the opposite of mafic Gouge (shears) -rock material that has been ground to a uniformly fine particle size of clay or fine silt sizes Grandodiorite - a group of coarse grained plutonic rock Graywackes - a gray or greenish gray, very hard coarse grained sandstone with dark rock and mineral fragments Kame - a long low hill, mound or ridge, composed chiefly of poorly sorted and artificial sand and gravel Lithosphere-the earth•s solid crust Metabasalt - a basalt \oilich has undergone some degree of metanorphi sm Metamorphic -rocks which have formed in the solid state in response to pronounced changes of tanperature, pressure, and the chan ic al environment Orthoclase - a mineral, a manber of the feldspar group commonly seen in granitic rocks Mafic -an igneous rock having dark colored minerals. The opposite of felsic Orogeny -the process by which mountains are formed involving folding and thrusting E-6-43 GLOSSARY (Cont 1 d) Phenocrysts -the relatively 1 arge crystals 'vklich are found set in a fine-grained ground mass Phyllitic-an argillaceous rock formed by regional metamorphism and intennediate in grade between slate and mica schist Plagioclase-a mineral group, menbers of the feldspars. One of the conrnonest rock -fonni ng minerals RQD•s-rock quality designation. core recovery; the RQD is the pieces four inches and longer actually dr·i 11 ed This is a form of recording rock ratio of the total 1 ength of core to the length of the coring run Sl ickensl ides - a po 1 ished and smoothly stri ked surface that results from friction along a fault/shear plane Stoss and lee bedrock forms -as}11lmetric arrangenent of bosses (small igneous intrusion at the surface) and hills in a strongly glaciated area, each hill having a gently abraded slope on the stoss side (side to the ice), and a steeper and rougher quarried slope on the 1 ee side Tectonic-of, pertaining to, or designating the rock structure and external fonns resulting from defonnation of the earth 1 s crust Thalweg Channel -the 1 ine connecting the lowest points along a shear bed or valley Thermakarst-settling or caving of the ground due to melting of ground ice Tuff - a rock formed of compacted volcanic fragments, generally smaller than 4 rrm in dicllleter Turbidite - a deposit formed by a highly turbid and relatively dense current which moves along the bottom of a body of standing water Volcaniclastic rock - a sedimentary rock composed primarily of vo1canic rock fragments E-6-44 - - .... .... - - I"'"" - -I REFERENCES Acres tlmerican Incorporated. 1982a. Susitna Hydroelectric Project, 1980-81 Geotechnical Report. Prepared for the Alaska Power Authority. 1982b. Susitna Hydroelectric Project, 1982 Supplement to the 1980-81 Geotechnical Report. Prepared for the Alaska Power Authority. . 1982c. Susitna Hydroelectric Project, ----,F~e~a~s:-:!i"Lb"i...-l':!":lt~y~R,.....,e_p_o-rt..-----. ---,.P""r-=-e-::-:pared for the Alaska Power AUthority. Woodward-Clyde Consultants. 1980. Interim Report on Seismic Studies for Susitna Hydroelectric Project. Prepared for Peres tlmerican Incorporated. 1982. Final Report on Seismic Studies for Susitna Hydroelectric Project. Prepared for ACres Jlliierican Incorporated. E-6-45 - TABLE E.6.1: GEOLOGIC TIME SCALE -MlLUUN UF ERA PERIOD EPOCH GLACIATION YEARS AGO Quaternary Holocene Wisconsinan Pleistocene Illinoian Kansan Nebraskan 1. 8 Cenozoic Pliocene Miocene Tertiary Oligocene Eocene Paleocene 70 Cretaceous Mesozoic Jurassic Triassic 230 Permian Pennsylvanian Mississippian Paleozoic Devonian Silurian Ordovician Cambrian 600 Precambrian - E-6-47 TABLE E.6.2: WATANA JOINT CHARACTERISTICS* Joint Site S t r :i, k'e D i ~ S ~ a c i n g** s u r f a c e C o n d i t i 0 n s Set Quadrant (Rangel ( ll:vg. J (Rangel ( ll:vg. J (Rangel ( ll:vg. J Texfure Coahng Remarks All 290°-330° 320° 75°NE-80°SW 90° 1"-15' 2' ) Carbonate locally Parallel to major ) shears, fracture NE, SE 80°NE 2"-1 0' 2' ) Carbonate at WJ-6 zones and altera- ) and WJ-7 tion zones ) NW, sw 320° 90° 1"-15' 2' ) Planar, smooth to Major carbonate at ) locally rough, con-WJ-4 ) tinuous ) 16 NW, sw 295° 75°NE 1 "-15' 2' ) Minor carbonate at WJ-9 II All 045°-080° 060° 80°SE-BDNW 90° 1 "-5' 2' Planar, smooth to Carbonate locally No shears or alter- rough at ion zones, minor fracture zone NE, SE 050° 85°NW 1 "-5' 1.5' Planar to irregular, Carbonate at WJ-5 smooth to slightly rough ['Tl NW, sw 065° 90° 2"-5' 2' Planar, smooth to Carbonate at one out- I rough crop O"l I 340°-030° 00 40°E-65°W 60°[ +:> Ill All 0.5"-5' 1. 5' Planar to irregular, Carbonate locally Parallel to minor 00 rough shears and fracture zones NE 005° 60°E 2"-2' 1' Curved, rough Weakly developed SE 350° 65°W 6"-4' 1. 5' Planar to irregular, Weakly developed smooth to rough NW, sw 345° 60°E 0.5"-5' 2' Planar to irregular, Carbonate locally Strongly developed rough I\o \oariable Shallow to moderate orientations Strongest Concentrations: NE 080° 10°N 2"-3' 1 ' SE 090° 25°S ) Planar to irregular, Probably stress 310° 40°NE) smooth to rough, relief, near discontinuous surface NW 090° 10°S 1 "-3' 2' SW OD 05°E 6"-10' 2' 090° 25°N *Surface data only **When set is present J J .1 ] J J J .. ~-J J fTl I (j) I .p. 1..0 Joint S t r i k e Set Location (RangeJ (Avg.J I North Bank 320°-0° 345° Ib DCJ-4 320° South Bank 310°-350° 340° II North Bank 040°-090° 065° lib DCJ-4 015° South Bank 020°-100° 075° I Ib DCJ-1 015° III North Bank 045°-0B0° 060° South Bank 015°-045° 025° Iv North Bank variable orientations Strongest Concentrations: Composite 060° DCJ-2 060° DCJ-3 090° DCJ-4 045° South Bank variable orientations Strongest Concentrations: Composite DCJ-1 *Surface joints only **Where present 050° 330° 330° 060° 345° 1 TABLE E.6.3: D i E (RangeJ (Avg.J 60°NE-70°SW B0°NE 55°NE 60°NE-75°SW 90° 40°-75°SE 55°SE B5°SE 30°-75°SE 55°SE 75°SE 50°NW-70°SE B0°NW 6B 0 -B0°NW 65°NW Shallow to moderate ) ) ) ) ) 15 °SE) 30°NW) 1 0°S ) 25°NW) Shallow to moderate ) ) ) ) ) 25°NW) 20°NE) 15°SW) 40°NW) 15°NE) -l 1 DE\1 IL CANYON JOINT CHARACTERISTICS* S E a c i n g** s u r f a c e c 0 n d i t i o n s (RangeJ (Avg.J Texture Coat1ng Remarks 0.5"-10' 1. 5') Planar, smooth, Occasional iron Parallel to shears, ) occasional rough, oxide and carbonate fracture zones and ) continuous most dikes. Major ) stress relief, open 0.5"-5' 2' ) joints on south ) bank. Ib found ) locally 6"-3' 2' ) Planar to curved, None Parallel and sub- ) smooth to rough parallel to bedding/ ) foliation. Some ) open to 6" near ) river level. Paral- 2"-6' 1 ' ) lel to major and ) minor shears. lib 2"-5' 1 • 5' ) ·is found locally 4"-10' 3' ) Planar to irregular, Occasional iron Occurs locally, ) smooth to rough, oxide and carbonate cliff former above ) tight to open joints Elevation 1400 on ) the north bank ) 6"-10' 3' ) Locally open joints 3"-B' 2' ) Planar, rough, dis-Occasional iron Probably stress ) continuous oxide and carbonate relief, near sur- ) face ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) 1"-8' 2' ) ) ) TABLE E.6.4: DEviL CANYON TAILRACE TUNNEL -JOINT CHARACTERISTICS* Joint S t r i k e D i e s e a c i n g** S u r f a c e c 0 n d i t i 0 n s Set (Range) (Avg.) (Flange) O~vg.) (Range) 0\vg.) Texture Coatwg Remarks 284°-355° 325° 50"NE-55"SW 70"NE 0.5"-10' 1 o 5 I Planar, smooth, Occasional iron oxide Parallel to shears, fracture occasional rough, and carbonate zones and most dikes continuOjJs II 37"SE-80"SE 60"SE 2"-5' 2' Planar to curved, None Parallel and subparallel to smooth to rough bedding/foliation. Minor shears III 006°-038° 022° 63"E-84"W 4"-10' 3' Planar to irregular, Occasional iron oxide Locally well developed smooth to rough and carbonate fTl Planar, rough, Occasional iron oxide Probably stress relief, near I rv variable less than 40° 0"\ I discontinuous and carbonate surface ()1 0 *Surface joints only **When present .J I 1 l J J ,-1'\1\,. J t"/\ 1\ 1\ / t~V J J Modified from Csejtey,et ol, 1978 LEGEND CENOZOIC QUATERNARY ,---, ~ I '-----~ r-;-.s;=l ~2:--L~l Ff'"-_.,-"T, I + + -t Lo..---~ MESOZOIC CRETACEOUS 8=====-====~ L~-----_-.J JURASSIC [lTIIIIO UNDIFFERENTIATED SURFICIAL DEPOSITS UNDIFFERENTIATED VOLCANIC AND VOLCA-NICLASTIC ROCKS GRANODIORITE, DIORITE BIOTITE-HORNBLENDE GRANODIORITE, BIOTITE GRANODIORITE SCHIST, M IGMATITE, GRANITIC ROCKS UNDIVIDED GRAN I TIC ROCKS MAFIC .I NTRUSIVES ARGILLITE AND GRAYWACKE GRANODIORITE, QUARTZ DIORITE REGIONAL GEOLOGY f7\ 7\ l\ 1\I'J ~ 6.6.6.~ TRIASSIC ~Z'-..... z-;, ~:L>-~j PALEOZOIC AMPHIBOLITES, GREENSCHIST, FOLIATED DIORITE BASALTIC METAVOLCANIC ROCKS, METABASALT AND SLATE BASALTIC TO ANDESITIC META VOLCANICS LOCALLY I NT~RBEDDED WITH MARBLE THRUST FAULT TEETH ON UPTHROWN SIDE ,DASHED WHERE INFERRE --., •• - -.... • • • OOTTED WHERE CONCEALED INTENSE SHEARING• • POSSIBLE THRUST FAULT, TEETH ON UPTHROWN • • • \1" • • • \1" SIDE PROPOSED DAM SITES 0 4 8 SCALE IN MILES FIGURE E.6 .1 - - A.BSOLUTE AGE YEARS BEFORE PRESENT ERA PERIOD EPOCH STAGE HOLOCENE -9,000- ' --11,000--- --13,500--- - LATE >-~ WISCONSIN --15,000--u 0:: w - - 0 <( g N z 0 0:: 1-WISCONSINIAN z w ~ w !;;( w GLACIATION -17,000-u ...J --::::;) a. 0 -25,000--r INTERGLACIAL -40,000---+ - EARLY WISCONSW -75,000-- - t - SANGAMON INTERGLACIATION --f -- -120,000-------t--PRE-WISCONSIN- 170 I z <( 0 z ::i ...J 120 r ILLINOIAN GLACIATION 75 I BAR SCALE z iii z 0 u (/) i ui 40 I l z w (/) z z w 0 g ~ ...J -0 :r: 9 :z:o ...J I I (IN THOUSANDS OF YEARS BEFORE PRESENT) NOTES: I. ERA THROUGH EPOCH TERMINOLOGY AND ABSOLUTE AGES AR£ AFTER VAN EYSINGA ( 1978). 2. STAGE TERMINOLOGY AND AGE ARE AFTER PEWE' (1975). 3. STADE AGE ARE MODIFIED AFTER TEN BRINK AND WAYTHOMAS (IN PRESS) QUATERNARY STUDY REGION TIME SCALE STADES IV Ill II I I- I- r- FIGURE E.6.2 l J l RANGE l l 1 ] 60" J J TALKEETNA TERRAIN MODEL J J J TALKEETNA TERRAIN MODEL AND SECTION BENIOFF ZONE LOCATION OF 1964 EARTHQUAKE PLATE MOTION RELATIVE TO NORTH AMERICAN PLATE SCHEMATIC TALKEETNA TERRAIN SECTION LEGEND: MAPPED STRIKE-SLIP FAULT,ARROWS SHOW SENSE OF HORIZONTAL DISPLACEMENT. MAPPED STRIKE-SLIP FAULT WITH DIP SLIP COMPONENT, LETTERS SHOW SENSE OF VERTICAL DISPLACEMENT: U IS UP, DIS DOWN. ---MAPPED FAULT, SENSE OF HORIZONTAL DISPLACEMENT NOT DEFINED. ----INFERRED STRIKE -SLIP FAULT . + • + + MAPPED THRUST FAULT, SAWTEETH ON UPPER PLATE. -.o~~~55;;iO~iiiiiiiiiliiiiiiiOO MILES SCALE <= FIGURE E.6.3 - - - - - HB4-1 -·--·---DENALI F~U1!_.---·---· __., ........... -------·--· ,.,-· --· ....-· -~·~· / r~----------------------------~, . ....-· -1'" ./ I I K03-3-:Y I I / DELALI •I r . .J I ./ ,-" I I ./ / I / / / I I _,_./:.~· WATANA SITE/. // I I / . / I I KD 5 -_,~~· KD5-2 ./ / I KD5-43~ ~KD5 2 / I I KD5-45"' • • \ -I • .--,£_, _ ___.KD3-7 I I .~ ~·-· . / -c"_ I I -· /. KD5-9 • ~· \KC5-5 / / • ..._ • ....._,_• I \ · · '\ I I ./· KD5-42 • \. ./ // KC4-I I r ./ KD5-44 ':/,., ,., 1 / /' I I /' I I / . / MICROEARTHQUAKE .. I I / / STUDY AREA I I / . I I // ./ I I / I I I / I I TALKEETNA / I I L--~-.£/ __ ...1 ---------..-.--------------- O~!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!~IO~iiiiiiiiiii~20~!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!~30 MILES SCALEc: FEATURES SELECTED FOR 1981 STUDIES FIGURE E.6.4