HomeMy WebLinkAboutAmbler Solar Energy Project Feasibility Study - Oct 2008 - REF Grant 2195412Remote Power Inc.
981 Gold Mine Trail
Fairbanks, AK 99712
Solar Energy Feasibility
Study
For the Alaska Village Electric Cooperative (AVEQ,
Ambler, AK
Report Date: 06 October 2008
Prepared by Bruno C. Grunau, P.E
Revision B
Solar Energy Feasibility Study
For the Alaska Village Electric Cooperative (AVEQ,
Ambler, AK
Introduction:
Alaska Village Electric Cooperative (AVEC), has requested a Solar Energy Feasibility Study
for their facility located in the village of Ambler, AK. The following report summarizes the
solar energy system estimated cost, anticipated annual solar power produced, anticipated
month -by -month power produced, simple payback calculations, and a Life Cycle Cost
Analysis (LCCA) for a solar energy system. This study is intended to evaluate the cost-
effectiveness of such a system in the intended location.
References:
1. "PVWATTS v. 2: A Performance Calculator for Grid -Connected PV Systems,"
retrieved 03 October 2008, from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory.
Web Source: http://rredc.nrel.gov/solar/codes algs/PVWATTS/version2/
2. Department of Energy publication DOE/EIA-0384(2007),"Annual Energy Review
2007" published June 2008
Web Source: http://www.eia.doe.gov/overview hd.html
3. Department of Energy publication NISTIR 85-3273-23, "Energy Price Indices and
Discount Factors for Life -Cycle Cost Analysis — April 2008", Rev. 5/08
Web Source: http://wwwl.eere.energy.aov/femp/pdfs/ashbO8.pdf
Site Survey:
A site survey was conducted to determine the locations on the site property best suited for
solar photovoltaic (PV) arrays. The site survey, typically performed on -site, was conducted
by aid of photos and physical descriptions of each site from AVEC personnel. Optimal PV
array locations maximize the available solar energy and minimize solar obstructions to
reduce shading on the PV arrays. Solar insolation data was estimated for the site per
reference (1). This software incorporates 30-year historical weather data from the
National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) for specific locations in North America as
well as NREL's Internet Map Server (IMS) at http://www.nrel.gov/gis and estimates the
amount of solar radiation received for a given site and the amount of energy produced for
a given system.
Data from the reports generated by reference (1) was used as a basis for estimating the
month -by -month solar power generated and the cost analyses described below.
Facility Overview:
The AVEC Ambler facility produces diesel -generated power at the current cost of
$0.5505/kWh. Not only are increasing fuel costs a primary concern, but also is the
increasing cost of transporting the fuel to remote villages such as Ambler. The use of a
photovoltaic system is being considered to supplement power generated by AVEC in an
effort to reduce the overall cost of energy production.
Description of Solar Energy System:
The proposed PV system is a grid -tied, batteryless 50.4 kW system. In an effort to shut
down the diesel generators on a regular basis, battery storage may be considered and
integrated into the system at a future date. A solar energy system preliminary design has
been created based on the recommendations of Remote Power, Inc. and described as
follows:
The 50,400 watt system would be comprised of multiple arrays consisting of a total of 225
solar modules. The arrays would be mounted on a 6,300 ft2 Triodetic® Multipoint®
foundation, a system specifically designed for northern climates and sites that are
unsuitable for standard footings and foundations. Note: The actual area of the foundation
is dependent upon the final site selection.
The arrays would be manually adjusted twice a year to maximize solar radiation
availability. The arrays would be tilted to approximately 52 degrees from horizontal from
April through September to maximize the solar radiation from the high summer sun path.
The array would be adjusted to 90 degrees from horizontal from October through March to
minimize snow accumulation and to maximize solar radiation from the low winter sun path.
The adjustable array utilizes eight 7,000 watt inverters to provide 277 VAC power. The
array would be located on the property southwest of the AVEC power plant and fuel
storage facility (tank farm). Refer to Figure 1 for the proposed array location.
The system components would include:
a) (Qty 225) 224-watt panels on adjustable racking mounted directly to a Triodetic®
Multipoint® ground foundation system with PV combiner boxes, DC disconnects,
and fuses/circuit breakers;
b) wiring and necessary conduit from the arrays to the facility where the electrical
interconnection is located (refer to Figure 1); Note: Cost of wiring and conduit will
vary greatly, depending upon final proximity of the array to the facility where the
interconnection is located.
c) one AC circuit breaker enclosure, one DC circuit breaker enclosure, several AC and
DC circuit breakers and disconnects, eight 7,000 watt grid -tied inverters, and
standard electrical system conduit components (elbows, junction boxes, etc) in the
mechanical room.
The estimated installed cost for this system is $605,000, based on $12.0/W.
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Projected Energy Cost Savings:
The current power generation cost for the AVEC Ambler facility is $0.5505/kWh and
is anticipated to increase annually a minimum rate of 8%.
Reference (2) was used as a basis for an estimation of the anticipated annual
energy rate. Since rural Alaskan villages are dependent upon diesel -powered
generators, the prices of electricity in these villages are largely dependent upon
fuel prices. Table 5.22 of this document lists the refiner sales prices (excluding
taxes) for selected petroleum products from 1991 through 2007. Due to the
extremely cold temperatures in these villages, the use of Arctic #1 diesel fuel
and/or kerosene -type jet fuel is required for use in the generators. The nominal
prices for jet fuel excerpted from this table are summarized in Table 2 below. (The
historical prices of Arctic #1 diesel fuel are not available in reference (2), therefore
only the prices of jet fuel are listed.)
The nominal price is the price paid for a product or service at the time of the
transaction. Nominal prices are those that have not been adjusted to remove the
effect of changes in the purchasing power of the dollar; they reflect buying power
in the year in which the transaction occurred.
Nominal Price per Gallon, Excluding
Year
Taxes
1991
$0.65
1992
$0.61
1993
$0.58
1994
$0.53
1995
$0.54
1996
$0.65
1997
$0.61
1998
$0.45
1999
$0.54
2000
$0.90
2001
$0.78
2002
$0.72
2003
$0.87
2004
$1.21
2005
$1.74
2006
$2.00
2007
$2.17
Table 2. National Average of Refiner Sales Price for Kerosene -Type Jet Fuel (1991-2007)
Figure 2 plots the national average of refiner sales price for kerosene -type jet fuel
from 1991 through 2007. A trendline was created to describe the rate of the
overall annual energy cost increase for the given time period. From this trendline,
however, a national annual price increase of approximately 8% is evident from
1991 until 2007. Since AVEC's energy costs are currently dependent upon these
fuel prices, an annual energy cost increase of 8% was used for this cost analysis.
Table 3 provides the projected energy costs (fuel -adjusted energy rate) based on
the 8% annual energy rate increase.
National Average Sellers Sales Prices for Jet Fuel
(Nominal Price per Gallon, excluding taxes)
$2.50
$2.00
y = 9E-69eo.0783X
� $1.50
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1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Year
Figure 2. National Average of All Sellers Sales Price for No. 2 Diesel Fuel (1994-2007)
with Trendline
Table 3. Tabulated Projected Energy Cost Savings (8% annual rate increase)
Year
Avoided
Cost
($/kWh)
Year
Avoided
Cost
($/kWh)
Year 1
2008
$0.55
Year 16
2023
$1.75
Year 2
2009
$0.59
Year 17
2024
$1.89
Year 3
2010
$0.64
Year 18
2025
$2.04
Year 4
2011
$0.69
Year 19
2026
$2.20
Year 5
2012
$0.75
Year 20
2027
$2.38
Year 6
2013
$0.81
Year 21
2028
$2.57
Year 7
2014
$0.87
Year 22
2029
$2.77
Year 8
2015
$0.94
Year 23
2030
$2.99
Year 9
2016
$1.02
Year 24
2031
$3.23
Year 10
2017
$1.10
Year 25
2032
$3.49
Year 11
2018
$1.19
Year 26
2033
$3.77
Year 12
2019
$1.28
Year 27
2034
$4.07
Year 13
2020
$1.39
Year 28
2035
$4.40
Year 14
2021
$1.50
Year 29
2036
$4.75
Year 15
2022
$1.62
1 Year 30
2037
$5.13
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