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HomeMy WebLinkAboutWatana AK Railbelt Transmission Study Draft Report MeyerCoteBurlingame 03-17-2014-RB Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study Draft Report Project #11-0514 March 17, 2014 David A. Meyer. P.E. Dr. James W. Cote, Jr., P.E. David W. Burlingame, P.E. Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 2 Summary of Changes Revision Revision Date Revision Description 0 March 17, 2014 Initial Draft Table of Contents 1 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................... 8  2 PRE-WATANA: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................ 8  2.1 Kenai- Anchorage Transmission ..................................................................................... 10  2.2 Southcentral Alaska Reliability ........................................................................................ 12  2.3 Anchorage-Fairbanks Intertie Reliability/Economics ....................................................... 12  2.4 Proposed System Transmission Maps ............................................................................ 13  3 PRE-WATANA: INTRODUCTION – POWER FLOW & TRANSIENT STABILITY ANALYSIS 16  3.1 Loads .............................................................................................................................. 16  3.2 Generation Dispatches .................................................................................................... 16  4 PRE-WATANA: STUDY METHODOLOGY – TRANSMISSION POWER FLOW & STABILITY .................................................................................................................................. 19  4.1 Planning Criteria .............................................................................................................. 19  4.1.1 Reliability ........................................................................................................................................ 19  4.1.2 Power Flow .................................................................................................................................... 20  4.1.3 Stability ........................................................................................................................................... 21  4.1.4 Voltage ........................................................................................................................................... 21  4.2 Transmission System ...................................................................................................... 22  5 PRE-WATANA: IMPROVEMENTS TO THE KENAI – ANCHORAGE TRANSMISSION .... 25  5.1 Proposed Improvement Projects ..................................................................................... 25  5.1.1 100 MW HVDC Intertie Beluga – Bernice Lake ............................................................................. 27  5.1.2 25 MW BESS – Anchorage Area ................................................................................................... 27  5.1.3 2nd Bradley Lake – Soldotna line .................................................................................................... 28  5.1.4 Flexible Gas Storage – Anchorage Area ....................................................................................... 28  5.1.5 Conversion University - Dave’s Creek Transmission Line to 230 kV ............................................ 28  5.1.6 University - Dave’s Creek 230 kV Substations and Compensation ............................................... 28  5.1.7 Dave’s Creek – Quartz Creek ........................................................................................................ 29  5.2 Costs ............................................................................................................................... 29  5.3 Alternatives ..................................................................................................................... 29  5.3.1 Reconductoring Soldotna – Diamond Ridge 115 kV line ............................................................... 29  5.3.2 Bradley Lake – Quartz 115 kV line ................................................................................................ 29  5.3.3 AC Bernice – Anchorage Southern Intertie .................................................................................... 29  5.3.4 2nd Soldotna – Quartz 115 kV line .................................................................................................. 30  6 PRE-WATANA: IMPROVEMENTS TO THE SOUTHCENTRAL TRANSMISSION ............ 31  6.1 Proposed Improvement Projects ..................................................................................... 31  6.1.1 Eklutna 115kV Substation .............................................................................................................. 31  6.1.2 Fossil Creek 115 kV Substation ..................................................................................................... 31  6.1.3 Lake Lorraine Station ..................................................................................................................... 32  6.1.4 Douglas Station Expansion ............................................................................................................ 32  6.1.5 Lake Lorraine – Douglas 230 kV Transmission Lines ................................................................... 32  6.2 Costs ............................................................................................................................... 32  6.3 Alternatives and Sensitivity ............................................................................................. 32  7 PRE-WATANA: IMPROVEMENTS TO THE NORTHERN RAILBELT TRANSMISSION ... 33  7.1 Proposed Improvement Projects ..................................................................................... 33  7.1.1 Lake Lorraine Station ..................................................................................................................... 35  7.1.2 Douglas Station Expansion ............................................................................................................ 35  Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 3 7.1.3 Lake Lorraine – Douglas 230 kV Transmission Lines ................................................................... 35  7.1.4 Gold Creek Station ......................................................................................................................... 36  7.1.5 Healy Station .................................................................................................................................. 36  7.1.6 2nd Douglas - Healy 230 kV transmission line (operated at 138 kV) .............................................. 36  7.1.7 Communication Infrastructure ........................................................................................................ 36  7.2 Costs ............................................................................................................................... 36  7.3 Sensitivities ..................................................................................................................... 37  7.3.1 Eva Creek Analysis ........................................................................................................................ 37  7.3.2 Zehnder Dispatch Analysis ............................................................................................................ 37  7.3.3 Load Transfer Trip Analysis ........................................................................................................... 38  7.3.4 Healy – Fairbanks Transmission Line Upgrades ........................................................................... 39  7.4 Alternatives ..................................................................................................................... 41  7.4.1 Healy – Douglas 138 kV operation at 230 kV ................................................................................ 41  8 PRE-WATANA: ECONOMIC BENEFIT ANALYSIS ............................................................ 42  8.1 Production Cost Benefits ................................................................................................. 42  8.1.1 Software Employed ........................................................................................................................ 42  8.1.2 Data and Information Sources ....................................................................................................... 42  8.1.3 Transmission Upgrades Examined ................................................................................................ 43  8.1.4 Case NS0 ....................................................................................................................................... 44  8.1.5 Case S1 ......................................................................................................................................... 44  8.1.6 Case S2 ......................................................................................................................................... 44  8.1.7 Case S3 ......................................................................................................................................... 44  8.1.8 Case S4 ......................................................................................................................................... 45  8.1.9 Cases N1 – N3 ............................................................................................................................... 45  8.1.10 Case N1 ......................................................................................................................................... 45  8.1.11 Case N2 ......................................................................................................................................... 45  8.1.12 Case N3 ......................................................................................................................................... 45  8.1.13 Case NS4 ....................................................................................................................................... 45  8.1.14 Total Railbelt Results ..................................................................................................................... 46  8.2 Capacity Deferral ............................................................................................................ 47  8.3 Reservoir Optimization .................................................................................................... 47  8.4 Unserved Energy ............................................................................................................ 48  8.5 Excess Energy ................................................................................................................ 49  8.6 Reduced Regulation ........................................................................................................ 49  8.7 Reduced Spinning reserve costs .................................................................................... 49  8.8 Renewable Resource Integration .................................................................................... 50  8.9 Gas Sensitivities – Fairbanks LNG ................................................................................. 50  8.10 Load Sensitivities ............................................................................................................ 50  8.11 Gas Price Sensitivities .................................................................................................... 50  8.12 Spinning Reserve Determination .................................................................................... 51  9 PRE-WATANA: CONCLUSIONS ........................................................................................ 52  10 PRE-WATANA PRIORITIZATION: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................. 53  11 PRE-WATANA PRIORITIZATION: PROCESS ................................................................... 55  12 PRE-WATANA PRIORITIZATION: CONCLUSIONS .......................................................... 58  13 POST-WATANA: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................ 59  14 POST-WATANA: OVERALL STUDY OBJECTIVES ........................................................... 64  15 POST-WATANA: WATANA PLANT MODELING ................................................................ 64  16 POST-WATANA: WATANA INTERCONNECT / ALASKA INTERTIE ................................ 65  16.1 Watana Unit Trip Analysis ............................................................................................... 67  17 POST-WATANA: GVEA ...................................................................................................... 69  17.1 Watana – GVEA Transfer Limits ..................................................................................... 69  17.2 GVEA Energy Storage .................................................................................................... 71  18 POST-WATANA: KENAI ..................................................................................................... 71  Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 4 19 POST-WATANA: SOUTHCENTRAL .................................................................................. 71  19.1 Watana – Southcentral Transfer Limits ........................................................................... 72  19.2 Anchorage Energy Storage ............................................................................................. 73  20 POST-WATANA: CONCLUSION ........................................................................................ 73  A PRE-WATANA STUDY APPENDIX .................................................................................... 75  B PRIORITIZATION APPENDIX ............................................................................................ 82  C PRE-WATANA DETAILED COST ESTIMATES ................................................................. 86  D POST-WATANA DETAILED COST ESTIMATES ............................................................. 137  E ECONOMIC ANALYSIS SENSITIVITY ............................................................................. 139  F PRODUCTION MODELING PRESENTATION ................................................................. 144  G PRE-WATANA SIMULATION RESULTS .......................................................................... 178  H POST-WATANA SIMULATION RESULTS ....................................................................... 179  I KENAI TRANSMISSION STUDY ...................................................................................... 180  J REGULATION RESOURCE STUDY ................................................................................ 235  Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 5 List of Tables Table 2-1 Project Summary Cost and Benefits ............................................................................. 9  Table 2-2 Sensitivity Case Summaries ......................................................................................... 9  Table 2-3 Non-Production Benefit Summaries ........................................................................... 10  Table 2-4 Kenai Project Costs .................................................................................................... 11  Table 2-5 Southcentral Project Costs ......................................................................................... 12  Table 2-6 Northcentral Project Costs .......................................................................................... 13  Table 2-7 Northcentral Project Costs –230 kV Line Upgrades ................................................... 13  Table 3-1 Year 2023 Railbelt Seasonal Load Totals .................................................................. 16  Table 3-2 Railbelt Year 2023 Generation Resources ................................................................. 17  Table 3-3 Generation Dispatch (MW) for Kenai and Southcentral Analysis ............................... 18  Table 3-4 Healy Generation Scenarios ....................................................................................... 18  Table 3-5 Generation Dispatch (MW) for Northcentral Analysis ................................................. 19  Table 4-1 Railbelt Load Totals and UFLS settings ..................................................................... 20  Table 4-2 Railbelt Ratings Example ............................................................................................ 21  Table 5-1 Kenai Export Stability Limits – Base System .............................................................. 25  Table 7-1 Healy Stability Limits – Base System ......................................................................... 33  Table 7-2 Healy Stability Limits – Proposed Upgrades ............................................................... 34  Table 7-3 Eva Creek Analysis ..................................................................................................... 37  Table 7-4 North Pole LM6000 vs. Zehnder Frame 5 Analysis .................................................... 37  Table 7-5 GVEA Unit Inertia Analysis ......................................................................................... 38  Table 7-6 Load Transfer Trip Analysis – Winter Peak System ................................................... 38  Table 7-7 Healy – Fairbanks Transmission Upgrades – Summer Peak ..................................... 39  Table 7-8 Healy – Fairbanks Transmission Upgrades – Winter Peak ........................................ 39  Table 7-9 Load Transfer Trip Analysis – 3rd 138 kV Line – Winter Peak .................................... 40  Table 7-10 Load Transfer Trip Analysis – 230 kV Upgrade – Winter Peak ................................ 41  Table 8-1 Production Cost Results ............................................................................................. 46  Table 10-1 Project Summary Cost and Benefits ......................................................................... 53  Table 10-2 Recommended Project Sequence ............................................................................ 54  Table 11-1 Project Sections and Subcomponents used for Analysis.......................................... 56  Table 13-1 Post - Watana System Project Cost Summary ......................................................... 59  Table 13-2 Watana Interconnection Project Costs ..................................................................... 60  Table 13-3 Southcentral Project Costs ....................................................................................... 60  Table 13-4 Energy Storage Project Costs .................................................................................. 61  Table 15-1 Watana power flow modeling specifics (each) .......................................................... 64  Table 15-2 Susitna turbine governor modeling specifics, IEEEG3 ............................................. 65  Table 16-1 Watana Interconnect / Alaska Intertie Configuration Analysis .................................. 66  Table 16-2 Railbelt Dispatch – Unit Trip Analysis ....................................................................... 68  Table 16-3 Railbelt Load Totals and UFLS settings ................................................................... 68  Table 16-4 Watana Unit Size Analysis – BES Sizing .................................................................. 68  Table 17-1 Winter Peak GVEA Import Analysis .......................................................................... 70  Table 17-2 Summer Peak GVEA Import Analysis ...................................................................... 70  Table A-1 Year 2023 Railbelt Seasonal Loads by Substation .................................................... 76  Table A-2 Conductor Ratings ...................................................................................................... 77  Table A-3 Historically Displaced Energy ..................................................................................... 77  Table A-4 Bradley Stranded Capacity ......................................................................................... 77  Table A-5 Kenai Loss Analysis ................................................................................................... 78  Table A-6 2nd Bradley Lake – Soldotna Line, Substation Costs .................................................. 79  Table A-7 2nd Bradley Lake – Soldotna Line, Line Construction Costs ....................................... 79  Table A-8 Dave’s Creek – University 230 kV Station Conversion Costs .................................... 79  Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 6 Table A-9 Dave’s Creek – University 230 kV Line Conversion Costs ......................................... 79  Table A-10 Dave’s Creek – Quartz Creek Line Upgrade ............................................................ 79  Table A-11 HVDC and BES System Costs ................................................................................. 80  Table A-12 Eklutna Express Substation Addition Costs ............................................................. 80  Table A-13 Lorraine & Douglas Substation Addition Costs ........................................................ 80  Table A-14 Lorraine – Douglas 230 kV Line Addition Costs ....................................................... 80  Table A-15 Northern Intertie Station Upgrade Costs .................................................................. 81  Table A-16 2nd Northern Intertie Line .......................................................................................... 81  Table C-1 Bernice Lake-Beluga HVDC ....................................................................................... 86  Table C-2 25 MW/14 MWh BESS ............................................................................................... 87  Table C-3 Bradley-Soldotna 115 kV – Line Sections .................................................................. 87  Table C-4 Bradley Substation ..................................................................................................... 88  Table C-5 Soldotna Substation ................................................................................................... 90  Table C-6 Dave’s Creek - Hope 230kV Line ............................................................................... 92  Table C-7 Hope – Portage 230kV Line ....................................................................................... 93  Table C-8 Portage - Girdwood 230kV Line ................................................................................. 94  Table C-9 Girdwood - Indian 230kV Line .................................................................................... 95  Table C-10 Indian - University 230kV Line ................................................................................. 96  Table C-11 Dave’s Creek Substation .......................................................................................... 97  Table C-12 Summit & Hope Substations .................................................................................... 99  Table C-13 Portage Substation ................................................................................................. 101  Table C-14 Girdwood Substation .............................................................................................. 103  Table C-15 Indian Substation ................................................................................................... 105  Table C-16 University Substation ............................................................................................. 107  Table C-17 Quartz Creek Substation ........................................................................................ 108  Table C-18 Dave's Creek - Quartz Creek Upgrade .................................................................. 110  Table C-19 Fossil Creek Substation ......................................................................................... 111  Table C-20 Eklutna Hydro Substation ....................................................................................... 113  Table C-21 Lorraine Substation ................................................................................................ 115  Table C-22 Douglas Substation ................................................................................................ 117  Table C-23 Healy Substation .................................................................................................... 121  Table C-24 Gold Creek Substation ........................................................................................... 125  Table C-25 Lorraine-Douglas 230 kV Line ................................................................................ 127  Table C-26 Douglas – Healy 230 kV line .................................................................................. 128  Table C-27 Healy – Gold Hill 230 kV Line ................................................................................ 129  Table C-28 Clear and Eva Creek Substations .......................................................................... 130  Table C-29 Nenana Substation ................................................................................................. 131  Table C-30 Ester Substation ..................................................................................................... 133  Table C-31 Gold Hill and Wilson Substations ........................................................................... 135  Table D-1 Watana - Gold Creek 230 kV lines ........................................................................... 137  Table D-2 Healy - Gold Creek - Douglas 230 kV operation ...................................................... 138  Table D-3 Southcentral Upgrades ............................................................................................ 138  Table D-4 Energy Storage Project Costs .................................................................................. 138  Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 7 Table of Figures Figure 2-1 Northern Proposed Transmission System ................................................................. 14  Figure 2-2 Kenai and Southcentral Proposed Transmission System ......................................... 15  Figure 4-1 Northern Base Transmission System ........................................................................ 23  Figure 4-2 Southcentral and Kenai Base Transmission System ................................................. 24  Figure 5-1 Kenai Export Loss Analysis ....................................................................................... 26  Figure 7-1 Anchorage – Healy Loss Analysis: Base vs. Proposed ............................................. 35  Figure 10-1 Estimated Yearly and Cumulative Expenditures (USD)........................................... 55  Figure 13-1 Northern Post – Watana Proposed Transmission System ...................................... 62  Figure 13-2 Kenai and Southcentral Post – Watana Proposed Transmission System ............... 63  Figure 15-1 IEEEG3 Block Diagram ........................................................................................... 65  Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 8 1 Introduction This report includes the findings of the Pre-Watana and Post-Watana studies completed to determine the future needs of the Railbelt transmission system. The prioritization of the Pre- Watana projects is also included. Preliminary study results are included in the Appendix of this report. The preliminary results consist of the Kenai Transmission Study and the Regulation Resource Study. Both of these studies were completed in the earlier stages of the project and served as building blocks for the final Pre-Watana and Post-Watana studies presented in this report. The preliminary results identified many of the initial Pre-Watana projects needed in the Kenai and Southcentral areas. Some of the content of these preliminary studies has been refined for this final report. The key refinements include the cost estimates and study assumptions. 2 Pre-Watana: Executive Summary Electric Power Systems (“EPS”) has completed an analysis to determine the recommended future transmission system in the Railbelt. The need for the transmission plan was driven by the changes in the Railbelt generation and transmission system since the completion of the 2010 Regional Integrated Resource Plan (“RIRP”) administered by the Alaska Energy Authority (“AEA”). The recommended transmission system improves reliability, mitigates future cost increases to Railbelt rate payers, allows unconstrained energy transfers and the use of peaking capacity from the Bradley Lake hydroelectric project, provides improved and increased energy transfers between all areas of the Railbelt, and facilitates the addition of the Watana large hydro project. The benefit of the projects as a whole results in a net present value savings of over $2,678,425,000 over the 50-year life of the projects in power production simulations when compared to projected 2015 operating conditions. The economic benefit of improved reliability as measured by unserved energy, capacity deferral of individual utilities, reservoir optimization of the Bradley and Cooper Lake hydro plants, the use of excess energy during high water years, construction savings during the required rebuild of existing facilities and the amount of capacity deferral saving further increase the benefit of the projects by an estimated $30-40,000,000 per year although these additional savings were not evaluated in detail. The benefit of the improvements with increased energy from Bradley’s Battle Creek project or the ability to contract for increased base load gas supplies are not considered in the analysis. With a total construction cost of $903,200,000, this results in a simplified benefit/cost ratio of 3.4 utilizing only the production cost savings, which is an extremely high ratio for electrical transmission projects. The inclusion of additional benefits would push this number even higher. There are few projects that can be evaluated individually, since the benefits to the Railbelt consumers are derived from a combination of individual projects; however the projects can be evaluated by how they improve reliability and economics for the Anchorage–Kenai area, Southcentral Alaska and the Anchorage to Fairbanks (Northern) connection. These system improvements must be constructed and operational prior to commercial operation of the Watana Hydro Project or any other large energy project in the Railbelt. Although all of these projects are also required to support a large energy project, improvements that are specifically required to support a large hydro project or any other large energy project are addressed in a follow-up study to this report. A summary of the projects and associated production cost benefits are provided in Table 1-1 below. Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 9 Table 2-1 Project Summary Cost and Benefits Additional studies were completed to determine the sensitivity of the project benefits to differing gas prices in the Southcentral area, LNG availability in the Fairbanks area, differing spinning reserve levels, differing regulation levels, loss of existing load and addition of new loads in the system. The sensitivity cases indicate that the loss of 44 MW of load coupled with the availability of LNG in the Fairbanks area results in the lowest savings for the projects at $60.6M/year. However these savings could be increased to over $100M/year by changes in regulation and spinning reserve allocation. Sensitivities in gas pricing do not have an appreciable impact on the base case savings. Regulation and spinning reserve changes made possible by the transmission improvements could increase the savings to $190M/year in the base case. A summary of the sensitivity cases is presented in the Table 1-2 below. Table 2-2 Sensitivity Case Summaries Benefits other than production cost simulations are more difficult to quantify, however a summary of the benefits and their estimated value is provided in the Table 1-3 below. Bradley Constraints 388.2$ 893.1$ 2.3 Southcentral / Overall 20.4$ 482.3$ 23.7 Northern System 494.7$ 1,672.5$ 3.4 Total 903.2$ 3,047.9$ 3.4 Area Total Costs (Millions) Summary Benefit (Millions) Benefit / Cost Ratio Sensitivity Case Description Annual Production Cost Base Production Cost Annual Change Change in base case NPV Base Case Base Case - All improvements in service -$ 140,000$ -$ 2,567,000$ Reduced regulation Decrease overall regulation requirements by pool dispatch 141,500$ 140,000$ 1,500$ 27,500$ Reduced Spinning Reserve Decrease spinning reserve by 75% of BESS capacity 206,000$ 140,000$ 66,000$ 1,210,000$ Fairbanks LNG Fairbanks LNG at North Pole CC 75,000$ 140,000$ 1,375,000$ 44 MW Load Loss Loss of Fort Knox 117,700$ 140,000$ (22,300)$ (409,000)$ 44 MW Load Loss/ LNG Loss of Ft Knox/ LNG at North Pole CC 60,600$ 140,000$ (79,400)$ (1,456,000)$ 100 MW Load Addition Add 100 MW load in GVEA 309,000$ 140,000$ 169,000$ 3,099,300$ 100 MW Load Addition/ LNG Add 100 MW Load in GVEA/ LNG at NPCC 244,800$ 140,000$ 104,800$ 1,922,000$ Gas Prices 2018 Hilcorp prices vs esclated 2012 138,700$ 140,000$ (1,300)$ (23,840)$ Duct Firing Duct firing capacity declared for unit capacity 148,500$ 140,000$ 8,500$ 1,559,000$ Sensitivity Case Summaries ($000) Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 10 Table 2-3 Non-Production Benefit Summaries 2.1 Kenai- Anchorage Transmission Transmission between the Kenai Peninsula and the Railbelt transmission system has essentially depended on a single 115kV transmission line to deliver power to or receive power from Southcentral Alaska. This line was originally built to transfer a relatively small amount of Cooper Lake Hydro power (16MW) into the Anchorage area. The Bradley Hydroelectric Project, added in 1991, has been constrained in its operation since its completion due to the inadequate transmission system between the Kenai and the Railbelt system. In the past, the Bradley Lake project participants successfully mitigated the constraints to the greatest extent possible by cooperative agreements and actions among the utilities. The changing atmosphere of the Cook Inlet gas situation and the evolving landscape of generation in the Railbelt will foreclose many of the mechanisms historically available to the Railbelt utilities to mitigate the constraints on the Bradley project. As a result of the loss of the mitigation measures and the changing aspects of the generation and gas systems, without improvements to the transmission system between Anchorage and Kenai, the utilities will experience substantial cost increases in both electrical line losses, lost generation capacity and operating costs due to the constraints placed on the Bradley project. In addition to the near-term constraints identified above, the Anchorage-Kenai constraints severely inhibit the development of both large-scale renewable hydro projects in the Railbelt as well as the integration of additional variable resources such as wind energy. These constraints prevent the use of Kenai hydro as part of an overall hydro management or coordination strategy and could significantly increase the cost of future hydro development projects. The lack of transmission capacity also limits the amount of Kenai resources that can be used to mitigate the impacts of variable generation such as wind energy and will significantly increase the cost of integrating renewables into the Railbelt system. The Eklutna hydro facility is not constrained by the Railbelt transmission system. The basic constraint of the Bradley project is the lack of an adequate transmission system used to deliver the project’s energy from Kachemak Bay to Anchorage and Fairbanks. Besides only a single transmission line between Kenai and Anchorage, a similar 115 kV transmission line from Soldotna to the Cooper Lake area make up the connection to Bradley Lake. These two lines have a combined length of 146 miles. Although the lines have been well maintained and improved by the utility Owners, they were not originally designed to carry large amounts of power over long distances. For comparison, the line between Anchorage and Fairbanks carries slightly less power than the University to Dave’s Creek Line, but is constructed to a much higher voltage and uses two large conductors per phase instead of the one small conductor per phase, as used on the Kenai line. The solution to eliminating the Bradley constraints is an improved transmission system between Anchorage and Kenai. This can be accomplished by either an additional transmission path Benefit Description Annual NPV Capacity Deferral Defer new unit capacity through resource sharing -$ -$ Reservoir Optimization Allow optimization of CLPP and Bradley lake levels 412.5$ 7.6$ Unserved Energy Decrease amount of unserved energy due to transmission/generation outages 0.9$ 16,486.0$ Excess Energy Allow use of excess energy during high water years 1,433.0$ 26,300.0$ Hydro-Hydro Coordination Allow Coordination of Kenai hydro/future hydro -$ -$ Non-Production Benefit Summaries ($000) Comments Requires Long-term resource analysis optimize hydro MWh with lake elevation decrease customer outages prevent hydro spill at Bradley design and optimization studies are required to estimate benefit Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 11 between the two regions, upgrading the existing transmission line to a larger capacity line, or a combination of both building a new line and improving the existing line. The study evaluated all three options. Adding a new transmission line between the regions greatly increases the reliability and relieves some constraints on Bradley Lake, but a new line by itself does not unconstrain Bradley, since Bradley must be operated to be in compliance with the lowest operating conditions of the new line or the existing line. Upgrading only the existing transmission system from Bradley to Anchorage was also studied, however it was not recommended due to higher costs, construction timing, and constraints associated with continued operation of a transmission system with a single transmission line between Kenai and Anchorage. The recommended transmission system is composed of improvements to portions of the existing Anchorage – Kenai transmission system combined with a new transmission line connecting the Southcentral area’s 230 kV transmission system at Beluga to the 115 kV transmission system at Bernice Lake. The combination of these two projects results in the lowest overall cost as well as the most benefits and fewest constraints on the Bradley project. Although the individual benefits of each project are difficult to derive in all cases, groups of projects were developed that can be evaluated to determine their relative benefit to the system. A summary of the costs of the proposed projects to unconstrain the Bradley Lake hydroelectric project are presented in Table 2-4. The costs are estimated to be accurate budgetary figures. Table 2-4 Kenai Project Costs The groups used to evaluate the benefits of the projects are presented below. *The benefits of hydro-hydro coordination are very large for the development of future large hydro projects. The ability to provide hydro regulation from the Kenai hydro resources has a tremendous benefit in the design and construction costs of the future large hydro projects. The exact benefit is unknown, but is estimated that it could exceed the combined total of all other benefits. 1 Bernice Lake-Beluga HVDC 100 MW HVDC Intertie $ 185.3 2 25 MW/14 MWh BESS Anchorage area battery $ 30.2 3 Bradley-Soldotna 115 kV Line New line & Bradley/Soldotna sub $ 65.5 4 University-Dave’s Creek 230kV Reconstruct existing line $ 57.5 5 University-Dave’s Substations Convert line for 230 kV operation $ 34.6 6 Dave's Creek - Quartz Creek Upgrade line to Rail conductor, Quartz sub $ 15.0 Electrical Projects Total $ 388.2 3 262 MWh Flexible Gas Storage Gas storage at local plant $ 18.2 Description Cost (Millions)ProjectPriority 1 HVDC/ 25 MW BESS $ 215.5 $ 567.8 2.6 2 Bradley-Soldotna 115 kV Line $ 65.5 $ 70.3 1.1 3 Univ-Daves-Quartz Creek 115 kV $ 107.1 $ 496.7 4.6 Totals $ 388.2 $ 1,134.8 2.9 Benefit (Millions) Benefit / CostGroupProjectCost (Millions) Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 12 2.2 Southcentral Alaska Reliability A single 115kV transmission line between the Anchorage and the Palmer areas connects ML&P’s Plant 2 to the Eklutna Hydro Plant. A recent upgrade of this line has added a second circuit, which is not connected to the system due to limitations in available substation space for new breaker positions. Improvements to the reliability of the Southcentral Railbelt system serving Anchorage and the Mat-Su area consist of two substation projects allowing this additional circuit to be placed into service. The projects are driven by reliability requirements. The benefits of un-served energy are used through-out the electrical industry to evaluate potential projects, however the value of un-served energy has not been established by study in the Railbelt. The Fossil Creek Substation allows the interconnection of the second transmission line into the Railbelt system and also a second interconnection between the ML&P system Fossil Creek through Raptor station. This second path into the ML&P system eliminates generation constraints for the new Eklutna Generation Station and increases the critical clearing time for 115 kV faults to manageable levels. A summary of the costs and benefits of the proposed projects for the Southcentral Railbelt are presented in Table 2-5. Table 2-5 Southcentral Project Costs 2.3 Anchorage-Fairbanks Intertie Reliability/Economics Transfers to the Fairbanks area to or from the Anchorage/Kenai systems are currently limited to a single line between the two areas. Due to the single line, all power transfers are “economic” transfers that occur only when energy is available in the south and the line is in service. GVEA currently maximizes the use of the existing intertie, but must maintain sufficient generation and fuel resources in its area in case the single intertie between the areas is out of service. The absence of a second transmission line between the areas precludes the contracting for firm power between the systems and precludes GVEA from contracting for known quantities of fuel or energy from the southern utilities including the sharing of capacity reserves across the Railbelt system. The addition of a second line between Anchorage and Fairbanks increases the amount of energy transferred between the areas from 75 MW of non-firm to 125 MW of firm power sales. Transfers can be increased by up to 50 MW by incorporating momentary loadshedding similar to the existing operating manner following certain fault conditions. The second transmission line spanning the 171 miles between Healy and Anchorage will prevent outages to Fairbanks and allow GVEA to access electrical and gas markets in the Southcentral system. The second line is also required in order to facilitate hydro-hydro optimization of existing and planned hydro projects in the future. Although the benefit of the second line is greatly enhanced by a future hydro plant, the economic benefit to the Railbelt consumers without a future hydro far exceed the costs of the line. A summary of the costs and benefits of the proposed projects to provide reliability and economic energy transfers between the northern and southern systems is presented in Table 2-6. While the costs are estimated to be accurate budgetary figures, the benefits are only production cost 1 Fossil Creek New 115 kV substation 10.7$ 1 Eklutna Hydro New 115 kV substation 9.7$ Total 20.4$ 480.5 23.6 Benefits (Millions) Benefit / CostPriority Station Description Costs (Millions) Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 13 benefits and do not include hydro-hydro coordination benefits to future projects and as such may underestimate the value of the projects to the Railbelt Consumers and the State of Alaska. Table 2-6 Northcentral Project Costs **The ability to provide both increased values of firm and non-firm energy to the interior at significantly lower prices has the potential to allow more development of loads and industry in the interior. This potential benefit and impact to the state has not been evaluated in this study. *** As with the Anchorage-Kenai project, these projects are required in order to capture the cost savings of hydro-hydro coordination between existing and future hydro projects. It should be noted that the large benefit associated with the Douglas-Healy line addition cannot be realized without the construction of the Lorraine-Douglas line section. Therefore, the analysis related to the Douglas-Healy line section should include the costs and benefits of the required Lorraine-Douglas line section also. Due to the large value of economic benefit of these projects, an additional analysis was completed to determine the transmission improvements required to increase imports into the Fairbanks area beyond the values found above. The analysis determined that upgrading the 138 kV lines into the Fairbanks area to 230 kV essentially eliminated transfer constraints between southern generation and resources and the Fairbanks area. The costs and benefits of the 230 kV transmission line upgrades are presented in the table below. Table 2-7 Northcentral Project Costs –230 kV Line Upgrades 2.4 Proposed System Transmission Maps Transmission maps were created for the proposed transmission system and a shown below in Figure 2-1 Northern Proposed Transmission System and Figure 2-2 Kenai and Southcentral Proposed Transmission System. Group Item Description Costs (Millions) Benefit (Millions) Benefit / Cost 1 Lorraine-Douglas Lorraine - Douglas 230 kV line/stations $ 129.3 $ 27.5 0.2 2 Douglas – Healy line New 230 kV line operated at 138 kV $ 243.6 $ 1,497.0 6.1 Communications Upgrade $ 15.0 Total $ 387.9 $ 1,524.5 3.9 Group Item Description Cost (Millions) Benefit (Millions) Benefit / Cost 1 Healy-Fairbanks 230 kV Convert 138 kV to 230 kV $ 106.8 $ 415.9 3.9 Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 14 Figure 2-1 Northern Proposed Transmission System Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 15 Figure 2-2 Kenai and Southcentral Proposed Transmission System Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 16 3 Pre-Watana: Introduction – Power Flow & Transient Stability Analysis Since the completion of the 2010 RIRP, plans for new thermal and hydro generation additions on the Kenai, thermal generation additions in MEA, AML&P, and CEA systems, and transmission changes in the MEA and Doyon transmission system, have been proposed or are under construction for the Railbelt system. The studies and analyses included in the RIRP required updating to reflect these generation changes and to analyze the impact these changes would have on the transmission system recommendations included in the RIRP. Evaluation of the transmission improvements required in the Railbelt transmission system (“backbone”) prior to the construction of Watana was also completed. For purposes of this study, the backbone transmission system is defined as the 230, 138, and 115 kV transmission lines from the Kenai (Soldotna) to Anchorage and to the Gold Hill and Wilson substations in GVEA. The study used the three seasonal power flow cases, summer valley, summer peak, and winter peak, using the IOC approved 2020 base cases and utilized version 32.1.1 of Power Systems Simulator Engineer (“PSS/E”) for power flow and transient contingency analysis. The 2023 power flow cases were configured based on the analysis needed to identify facility alternatives and to recommend an overall transmission system plan. EPS also assumed Healy # 2 and Eva Creek wind project were available for dispatch in the study. 3.1 Loads The Railbelt system loads for the 2023 study year are shown in Table 3-1 below. It is assumed that the load growth from the 2020 IOC cases to the year 2023 and 2024 load season is negligible. The winter peak season has a total load of 1034 MW and the summer valley has a total load of 450 MW. The summer peak season has a total load of 786 MW. The seasonal loads by substation are shown in Table A-1 Year 2023 Railbelt Seasonal Loads by Substation of the Appendix. Table 3-1 Year 2023 Railbelt Seasonal Load Totals HEA MLP CEA Seward MEA GVEA Summer Valley 46 108 94 8 68 127 450 Summer Peak 67 210 157 10 116 225 786 Winter Peak 99 226 229 12 186 283 1034 Season Load  (MW)Total   Load 3.2 Generation Dispatches The generation resources for the Railbelt system are shown below in Table 3-2. Indicated in the table are the plant name, the number of units at the plant, the total power output of the plant during winter peak conditions, the owner of the plant, as well as a flag for if the plant is a future addition that is expected to be in place before the 2023 year time frame. The future or recent plant additions include a new combustion turbine (CT) at Soldotna, and a just completed new steam turbine (ST) at Nikiski. Two new CT’s will replace older units at Plant 1, and Plant 2 will be expanded with the addition of three new units (two CT’s and one ST). A new plant at Southcentral was completed with a total of 4 new units (3 CT’s and one ST). The EGS plant in MEA will be built with 10 reciprocating engines. The Eva Creek wind farm was built with 12 wind turbines and Fire Island wind farm was built with 11 wind turbines. Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 17 It is assumed that Healy #2 will be refurbished to generate power before the 2023 time period. The system was evaluated with and without the continuing service of Healy #1 after Healy #2 becomes operational. Table 3-2 Railbelt Year 2023 Generation Resources Bradley Lake 3 Hydro 141 State  of  Alaska Tesoro 3 CT 10 Tesoro Soldotna 1 CT 49 HEA x Nikiski 2 CT & ST 78 HEA Plant 13CT 96 MLP x Plant 24CT & ST 254 MLP Plant 2 Exp. 3 CT & ST 115 MLP x Eklutna Lake 2 Hydro 40 MLP & CEA Southcentral 4 CT & ST 193 MLP  & CEA Buluga 7 CT & ST 404 CEA Fire Island 11 Wind 18 CEA International 3 CT 51 CEA Cooper Lake    2 Hydro 20 CEA Bernice  Lake CT 78 CEA Eklutna 2 / Reed 10 Recip 170 MEA x Healy  #2 1 Steam Boiler 62 GVEA x Healy  #1 1 Steam Boiler 29 GVEA Eva Creek 12 Wind 24 GVEA DPP 1 CT 26 GVEA Zehnder 4 CT / Recip 37 GVEA North Pole Sub 2 CT 128 GVEA North Pole CC 2 CT & ST 65 GVEA Chena 4 CT / Recip 38 IPP UAF 4 Steam  / Recip 14 UAF Ft. Wainwright 5 Recip 22 DOD Eielson  AFB 5 Recip 21 DOD Future  AdditionPlantUnits  (#)Type Pmax  (MW)Owner Table 3-3 lists some generation dispatches that were used for parts of the study. These dispatches were used to stress the Kenai / Southcentral Railbelt systems for use in power flow and transient contingency analysis. Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 18 Table 3-3 Generation Dispatch (MW) for Kenai and Southcentral Analysis sv sp wp sv sp wp sv sp wp sv sp wp sv sp wp Soldotna 17 14 28 40 49 40 40 49 Bradley  Lake 90 90 90 120 120 120 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 Tesoro 3 7 9 3 7 9 3 7 9 3 7 9 3 7 9 Nikiski 393643 304861 284661 Bernice 7 27 Plant 1 2864 5660 5650 56 50 56 64 Plant 22037 Plant 2 EXP 92 115 92 115 51 92 115 51 92 115 51 93 115 International Fire  Island 00000000000 000 0 Southcentral 161 155 186 135 138 200 106 145 195 106 145 195 110 134 188 Cooper Lake 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 Eklutna 3736383639383838383838 383838 38 Eklutna Recip 68 112 170 47 129 170 34 102 170 34 102 170 34 102 170 Healy 8788288660 6161 61 61 61 61 N. Pole 79 128 40 128 79 128 79 128 79 128 NPCC 50 40 65 50 40 65 53 40 65 53 40 65 53 40 65 Kenai Export 99 99 96 111 109 108 126 125 122 127 124 123 118 99 77 Healy  Import7823 9 5066367449367449 367449 36 Total Generation 482 821 1076 468 814 1063 472 825 1065 864 1573 2018 844 1520 1976 Total Spin 110 74 91 91 80 85 92 68 102 45 52 53 41 72 44 3rd  Bradley  Lake, Nikiski  offline,  Cooper offline Plant ABCC1C2 Base Full Bradley  Output 3rd  Bradley  Lake 3rd  Bradley  Lake, Nikiski  offline The Northcentral Railbelt analysis utilized generation dispatches of varying GVEA import levels to determine the import limits for eight different Healy generation scenarios. The scenarios consisted of different unit commitments for Healy #1, Healy #2, and Eva Creek generation and are shown below in Table 3-4. Table 3-4 Healy Generation Scenarios 1622624 26226 362 24 462 52624 626 724 8 Case Healy   #2 Healy   #1 Eva  Creek Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 19 To vary the GVEA import level, Fairbanks generation at North Pole (including the combined cycle unit) was reduced while generation in Anchorage (Southcentral power plant and / or Plant 2 expansion) was increased. The dispatches used for the Northcentral analysis are shown in Table 3-5. Table 3-5 Generation Dispatch (MW) for Northcentral Analysis sv sp wp sv sp wp sv sp wp sv sp wp sv sp wp sv sp wp sv sp wp sv sp wp HC2 2 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 HC1 1 29 26 29 29 26 29 29 26 29 29 26 29 Eva Creek 1 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 NPOLESUB 1 xx NPOLESUB2 xxxxxxxxxx NPCC 13 xx xx xx xx xxxxxxxxxxx NPCC 24 xx xx xx xx xxxxxxxxxxx 20 25 25 20 25 25 20 25 25 20 25 25 20 25 25 20 25 25 20 25 25 20 25 25 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 14 18 14 18 14 18 14 18 14 18 14 18 14 18 14 18 88 88 88 88 88 88 88 88 x blank cells represent units offline represents units dispatched as  required UAF  Plant Ft. WW Plant Elsn Power 8 Chena Plant 4Bus Name Id 312 567 4 Pre-Watana: Study Methodology – Transmission Power Flow & Stability System changes / additions were made to update the data based on projects that are expected to be completed before the 2023 time frame, as well as to include proposed transmission and generation additions for analysis. Generation dispatches were created to stress the regional transmission facilities to identify system constraints and / or deficiencies. The planning criteria (listed below) were used to develop preferred solutions in each region along with possible alternatives to meet the criteria. These solutions were based on technical justifications as well as cost analysis using the transfer limits determined by these studies. 4.1 Planning Criteria The planning criteria for the Railbelt system includes desired operating parameters for both during steady-state conditions as well as transient conditions. The planning criteria are divided into four main areas; reliability, power flow, stability, and voltage, and are discussed in detail below. 4.1.1 Reliability The ultimate goal of any planning criteria is to provide the desired level of reliability at a cost the system can afford. For islanded systems this level of reliability is often less than large interconnected systems due to the evaluation of reliability against the costs required to obtain the same level of reliability standards in the Lower 48. Each of the Railbelt utilities has planned their individual systems to withstand N-1 contingencies on their main transmission system without a loss of load. However, the interconnections between the utility systems have been allowed to utilize single contingency transmission lines, resulting in large scale loss of loads following the outage of the single interconnection. As a Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 20 result, firm power transfer and capacity sharing among the utilities has been limited to the level that the utilities can withstand following the loss of the single interconnection. The Wilson BESS is utilized for spin and also for auto-scheduling to cover outages of major 138 kV lines and units in the GVEA system. It assumed that use of the BESS for auto-scheduling will continue in the future system and will be increased to cover possible unit trips of Healy #2 and outages of the Healy – Gold Hill line. The Railbelt Under-Frequency Load Shed (UFLS) settings are shown below in Table 4-1. The UFLS system is an important part of the Railbelt system and is based on the largest operating unit’s size and transmission line contingency. Although the UFLS system was designed to operate in a much different generation system, the UFLS scheme was assumed unchanged for these studies. Shedding (removing) load from the system allows the Railbelt system to adequately respond to low frequency events due to multiple contingencies or other severe outages and quickly restore frequency, preventing the system from collapsing. Table 4-1 Railbelt Load Totals and UFLS settings MW % MW % MW % 59.0 1 45.6 10% 73.5 9% 105.5 10% 58.7 2 38.7 9% 60.3 8% 86.3 8% 58.5 3 94.8 21% 167.7 21% 237.1 23% 58.2 4 39.3 9% 74.1 9% 104.4 10% Frequency  (Hz) UFLS   Stage Summer Valley Summer Peak Winter Peak The overarching goal of this Railbelt transmission planning study is to bring the utility interconnections up to the same level of reliability that is maintained within each of the utility’s individual systems. The system will be designed and evaluated such that no single contingency results in the loss of firm power customers from the bulk transmission system to the extent that such improvements are technically and economically feasible. The means used to evaluate the individual components that are required to assess and develop this level of reliability are outlined below. 4.1.2 Power Flow The power flow criterion includes limits on voltage levels as well as branch flow levels for the Railbelt during stead state conditions. The power flow criterion is listed below and was used for normal (all equipment in service) and N-1 (single outage) contingency analysis:  Flows on transmission lines below their MVA rating (winter or summer)  Flows on transformers below their maximum MVA rating The Railbelt system experiences large temperature swings between the winter and summer seasons. These changes in temperature require the power flow analysis to use the appropriate conductor rating for the specific temperature (load) season. Table A-2 Conductor Ratings in the Appendix lists typical conductor ratings for different voltages. Table 4-2 shows the ratings for some of the Railbelt line sections along with the rating reduction for the summer as compared to the winter ratings. Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 21 Table 4-2 Railbelt Ratings Example From To kV size name Winter Summer Dave's Creek Hope 115 556 Dove 173 96 45% Douglas Stevens 138 2‐954 Rail  (x2) 739 521 29% Healy Gold  Hill 138 556 Dove 267 188 30% Healy Wilson 138 954 Cardinal 374 263 30% Teeland Herning 115 556 Dove 173 96 45% Plant 2 Fossil Creek 115 954 Rail 241 154 36% Plant 2 University 230 954 Rail 483 309 36% Pt. Mackenzie Teeland 230 795 Drake 439 240 45% 230 1900 Cable 310 281 9% 138 750 Cable 186 169 9% Pt. Worenzoff Postmark 138 795 Arbutus 253 140 45% 138 Undersea Cable Line  Section Conductor Rating (MVA) Summer  Reduction (%) 230 Undersea Cable It is assumed that short term thermal overloads are acceptable if planned remedial action schemes (generation dispatch changes, non-firm energy contract reductions) are designed to minimize and or eliminate the overload. 4.1.3 Stability The transient stability criterion includes limits on the system frequency, voltage levels, system response, and unit response. The transient criteria listed below will be used for N-1 contingency analysis.  Sustained voltages on the transmission system buses must not be below 0.8 pu  Frequency must stay between 57 Hz and 62 Hz  System response must not exhibit large or increasing amplitude oscillations in frequency or voltage  Units must not exhibit out of step or loss of synchronism response  Single contingency events cannot cause uncontrolled load shedding It is not acceptable to operate the system in a configuration that would result in unstable system response for single contingencies. Therefore, infrastructure improvements or operational constraints must be completed / implemented to eliminate the possibility of an unstable condition occurring. 4.1.4 Voltage The criterion to be applied includes limits on the maximum and minimum voltages allowed on the Railbelt system as well as operation limits of the generators and the SVC’s. The criterion is listed below:  Voltages at 230 kV, 138kV undersea cables must be below 1.02 pu  Voltages at 230 kV, 138 kV, and 115 kV substations serving load must be below 1.05 pu Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 22  Voltages at 230 kV, 138 kV, and 115 kV substations NOT serving load must be below 1.10 pu  Voltages at 230 kV, 138 kV, and 115 kV substations must be above 0.95 pu  High Voltage limits must be met with online generators operating at unity power factor  Voltage limits must be met with SVC’s operating with a minimum 5 MVAR of margin As with the stability criteria, it is not acceptable to operate the system in a configuration that would result in the system violating the voltage criteria. Therefore, infrastructure improvements or operational constraints must be completed / implemented to eliminate the possibility of an unstable condition occurring. 4.2 Transmission System The following transmission upgrades were assumed to be in place and operational in the Railbelt system and have been added / verified in the Railbelt database for use in these studies. HEA  New Sterling 115 kV substation  Rebuilt 69 kV loop between Soldotna – Beaver Tap – Marathon to 115 kV  New 115 kV line from Marathon to Nikiski  New Tesoro 115 kV substation  Expansion of Bernice 115 kV substation ML&P  New Raptor 115 kV substation  Sub #14 Rebuild  Sub #15 Rebuild  New Sub #22 115 kV substation  New ITSS – Sub #22 115 kV tie MEA  115 kV Teeland – Herning – Shaw – Lazell – Lucas lines upgraded to 556 ACSR  New EGS 115 kV substation  Rebuild of Hospital 115 kV substation  New Herning – Hospital 115 kV line  2 New Hospital – EGS 115 kV lines CEA  New 115 kV substation at ITSS  New ITSS – Sub #22 115 kV tie Maps were created of the initial transmission system used in these studies. This transmission system is considered the “base” transmission system. Note that it was assumed that no transmission upgrades are assumed for the 2020 time frame from Teeland north into the Fairbanks system. Figure 4-1 shows the northern base transmission system. Figure 4-2 shows the Southcentral and Kenai base transmission system. Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 23 Figure 4-1 Northern Base Transmission System Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 24 Figure 4-2 Southcentral and Kenai Base Transmission System Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 25 5 Pre-Watana: Improvements to the Kenai – Anchorage Transmission The transmission system between the Bradley Lake Hydro Plant and the Southcentral Railbelt area consists primarily of single transmission lines. Energy exports from the Kenai are limited by both thermal and stability constraints both into and out of the region. The existing 115 kV lines between Bradley Lake and Soldotna are not rated to carry Bradley Lake’s full output without incurring excessive losses. The Soldotna – Quartz Creek and Quartz Creek – Dave’s Creek sections have thermal ratings of 96 MVA in the summer. The 2020 Kenai system has stability limits from 52 – 101 MW depending on the specific Kenai generation unit commitment and dispatch, as shown in Table 5-1. In addition to the changes in Kenai export limits, the losses experienced on the Bradley Lake and Cooper Lake energy will approach more than 25% under peak operating / energy transfer conditions. Plots for the simulation results for the recommended system can be found in Appendix G. Table 5-1 Kenai Export Stability Limits – Base System CT ST #1 #2 #1 #2 SV SP WP 10‐22 max 45‐55 45‐55 10 10 82 84 71 20‐22 max 45‐55 45‐55 63 65 52 3 max max max 30‐38 30‐38 10 10 101 97 85 4 max max max 30‐40 30‐40 86 82 68 714‐43 28 50‐55 50‐55 10 10 92 84 75 814‐43 28 53‐55 53‐55 76 65 56 Soldotna Max  output, SV & SP = 40 MW, WP = 49 MW Nikiski CT Max  output, SV = 39 MW,  SP = 36 MW, WP  = 43 MW Nikiski ST Max  output, SV = 16 MW,  SP = 15 MW, WP = 18 MW Dispatch Generator Output (MW)Kenai  Export  (MW)Nikiski Sold Bradley  Lk Cooper Lk The energy and capacity of Bradley Lake will be constrained during most of the year, with increased losses and stranded capacity impacting the central and northern Railbelt utilities. These constraints will also impact the efficiency of the hydro-thermal coordination and access to spinning reserve by the northern utilities. The economic impact of these constraints is outlined in detail in the Production Cost Simulation section of the report. Table A-3 and Table A-4 show the historically displaced energy and stranded capacity. 5.1 Proposed Improvement Projects The proposed transmission upgrades allow for all of the Bradley Lake energy to be exported to Anchorage and the northern utilities while also significantly reducing losses on the transmission system. There are three main areas of focus to relieving the generation constraints from the Kenai; 1) Kenai area transmission improvements 2) Kenai to Anchorage transmission improvements and 3) Anchorage area stored energy additions. Kenai area transmission improvements consist of adding a new transmission line between Bradley Lake and Soldotna. Kenai to Anchorage transmission improvements include a new HVDC line between Bernice Lake and Beluga and conversion of the existing Kenai line between University and Dave’s Creek to 230 kV. The Anchorage area stored energy projects include a 25 MW BESS in the Anchorage area to provide stability and allow re-dispatching of Kenai and Anchorage area generation if the HVDC tie fails during high Kenai exports. A new stored gas facility will allow Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 26 gas scheduling to accommodate renewable energy and schedule changes due to transmission outages. A loss analysis was completed with Kenai export levels ranging from 55 MW to 100 MW for the recommended transmission configuration, comparing the losses to the 2015 year transmission system. The results are shown graphically in Figure 5-1. The HVDC Intertie was assumed to schedule all Kenai exports up to a maximum value of 75 MW. The export value is the flow measured at the Dave’s Creek – Hope transmission line, from the Dave’s Creek end in addition to the HVDC flow. The loss value includes the losses of all of the Kenai Transmission lines from Bradley Lake to University, as well as the transmission lines to the HVDC Intertie. It is assumed that the HVDC Intertie has losses that are equal to 4% of the energy flowing on the line. The results show a significant reduction in losses with the addition of the HVDC intertie, the Kenai Tie upgraded to 230 kV, and addition of a second 115 kV line between Bradley Lake and Soldotna substations. Additional Kenai loss information can be found in Table A-5. Figure 5-1 Kenai Export Loss Analysis It should be noted that thermal overloads of the Soldotna – Quartz Creek line section are still possible with the recommended transmission improvements following the loss of the HVDC transmission line. The overload only occurs during the summer time frame when the transmission ratings are decreased from their winter peak ratings. An outage of the HVDC intertie during maximum Kenai export conditions requires a reduction in Bradley Lake generation of about 20 MW, again only for the summer. The recommended BESS installation is intended to prevent loss of load following this outage and provide energy during the time required to adjust the Kenai export to acceptable levels. Gas storage facilities are recommended in the Anchorage area to alleviate the bottlenecks associated with gas delivery to the Anchorage area thermal projects. Although this project is 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105Losses (MW)Kenai Export @ Dave's Creek and HVDC (MW) Kenai Export Losses Base vs Recommended Upgrades Base Kenai Tie Upgraded to 230 kV, Second Bradley Lake ‐ Soldotna, and HVDC TIE Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 27 not directly an electrical transmission project, the flexible gas storage allows the Railbelt system to be optimally dispatched to lower the costs, improves the reliability of the electrical system, and decreases the costs of the Anchorage area BESS. 5.1.1 100 MW HVDC Intertie Beluga – Bernice Lake A second transmission tie between the Kenai Peninsula and the Anchorage area is needed to allow reliable export of Bradley Lake’s energy to the northern utilities. Studies in connection with the abandoned “Southern Intertie” project had identified a 138kV transmission line between Bernice Lake and Pt. Woronzof as the recommended alternative. It included a submarine section between Pt. Possession and Pt. Woronzof, which required substantial reactive compensation. A HVDC tie was contemplated at the time, but found too costly. This study has investigated both options and concludes that the HVDC tie is now less costly and a technically more appropriate solution. The project includes the construction of a 100 MW HVDC intertie between the Beluga power plant in Southcentral Alaska and the 115 kV Bernice Lake Power Plant on the Kenai Peninsula. The route of the cables would result in the majority of the cables being parallel to the Cook Inlet current flow which should make them less susceptible to damage caused by high currents than the Pt. Woronzof and Pt. Possession cables. The interconnecting HVDC power line would consist of two undersea cables (due to the length of outage delay for a single submarine cable failure) each rated for 100 MW transfer capacity. A failure of either cable would result in the loss of the intertie until the faulted cable was removed from service. The capacity of the intertie would remain at 100 MW following the loss of the first cable. The cables are approximately 36 miles in length and are estimated to be rated at 100 kV DC. The converters are mono-pole HVDC converters with a transfer capacity of 100 MW. The actual voltage and submarine cable ratings will require optimization to provide the most economic selection for the project. Besides allowing for high Kenai export conditions, additional benefits of the HVDC intertie are the large decreases in Kenai export losses and providing damping of inter area oscillations between the Kenai and the rest of the Railbelt via the HVDC controls. The 100 MW size of the HVDC was determined by transient analysis. The HVDC tie was scheduled with an initial flow of 75 MW, and then the upgraded Kenai tie was outaged. The HVDC line flow was then increased (assumed as step change) until the Anchorage area did not load shed. The Kenai tie was opened between the Dave’s Creek and Quartz Creek substations, which was deemed the worst case outage due to the load at Seward remaining connected to the Anchorage system and the generation at Cooper Lake remaining connected to the Kenai system. The results show that the HVDC line should have the capability of increasing transfers quickly to 100 MW to eliminate load shedding in Anchorage with total Kenai exports at maximum of around 127 MW. 5.1.2 25 MW BESS – Anchorage Area A BESS in the Anchorage area has been investigated in a previous study – both in connection with the Fire Island Wind Farm and to cover the contingency loss of the University-Dave’s Creek transmission line. This project includes the installation of a 25 MW / 14 MWh Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) in the Anchorage area. The exact characteristics of the BESS technology should be evaluated in the design and procurement process of the BESS. The BESS should also be Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 28 evaluated based on other possible future uses with the addition of the Watana large hydro project. The capacity and energy requirements of the BESS are driven by the largest transmission contingency or generation contingency as opposed to providing daily regulation for variable generation. The BESS is required to prevent load shedding and transmission overloads in the northern system following the loss of the HVDC intertie. The BESS was sized to allow re-dispatch of the Kenai and Anchorage area generation to prevent overloads of the Kenai transmission system following a single-contingency outage. 5.1.3 2nd Bradley Lake – Soldotna line The addition of the line allows for a large reduction in losses during high Bradley Lake output conditions as well as eliminating the stability constraint for Bradley Lake following contingencies on lines south of Soldotna. This project includes the construction of a new 68 mile long, 115 kV transmission line from the Bradley Lake Power plant to a new substation near HEA’s existing Soldotna substation. The transmission line includes modifications to the existing GIS switchgear and 0.5 miles of 115 kV solid-dielectric cable at the Bradley Lake power plant. The northern end of the line would terminate in a new 115 kV substation connected to the existing HEA substation through the existing AEA SVC bay. The line would utilize the same construction configuration and conductor size as the existing Bradley – Soldotna transmission line. 5.1.4 Flexible Gas Storage – Anchorage Area This project includes the installation of a 1.91 BCF (262 MWh) gas storage facility at an Anchorage/Mat-Su area power plant. The facility includes storage tanks for compressed natural gas, compressor, compressor building, and delivery system. The project would allow utilities to utilize in-ground storage to serve changes in load/generation without incurring penalties from the gas producers/transporters. The need for this project should be evaluated as more stringent gas supply and delivery constraints are enacted in Southcentral Alaska. 5.1.5 Conversion University - Dave’s Creek Transmission Line to 230 kV This project includes the conversion of 77 miles of the existing 115 kV Kenai Tie (from Chugach’s Dave’s Creek Substation on the Kenai Peninsula to Chugach’s University Substation in Anchorage) to 230 kV. The project requires two separate phases, the conversion of the transmission line to 230 kV, followed by the conversion of the substations along the line to 230 kV. The line conversion would include rebuilding the line across the avalanche areas along the existing route, to include the installation of avalanche deflection structures and the installation of more avalanche resistant structures. The line would be placed along the existing line’s route and would utilize wooden H-Frames utilizing the current 795 ACSR “Drake” conductor. 5.1.6 University - Dave’s Creek 230 kV Substations and Compensation This project includes the installation of reactive compensation at Dave’s Creek station and the conversion of substations at Dave’s Creek, Hope, Summit Lake, Portage, Girdwood, and Indian stations to 230 kV. The project also includes the completion of the 230 kV bus at Chugach’s University substation. The project includes the installation of sectionalizing switches at each of the stations to allow remote sectionalizing of the transmission line. On the southern end, the line would terminate at Dave’s Creek and would include a single 230 kV to 115 kV, 150 MVA transformer to interconnect into the 115 kV bus sections. Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 29 A 10 MVAR fixed reactor would be required at the Dave’s Creek substation. The reactor would allow load to be served from the Kenai with the University substation end of the line opened without units on the Kenai being operated in the “buck” condition. Further switching studies will be required to confirm if a switched reactor can be utilized in conjunction with the existing SVC or if the existing SVC will require upgrading. 5.1.7 Dave’s Creek – Quartz Creek The 115kV line between Dave’s Creek and Quartz Creek utilizes a “Dove" equivalent conductor, which will make it necessary to reduce Bradley Lake and / or Cooper Lake generation by 38 MW when the HVDC line is outaged during summer peak and maximum Kenai export conditions. The winter peak season does not require a reduction in Kenai exports due to the higher thermal ratings of the conductors. To increase the transfer capacity to 133 MVA between the two substations, the 10 mile line should be reconductored to 954 ACSR “Rail” conductor. 5.2 Costs A summary of the costs and benefits of the proposed projects to unconstrain the Bradley Lake hydroelectric project were presented in Table 2-1 of the Pre-Watana Executive Summary. Further cost analysis for the Kenai transmission is shown in section A.4 of the Appendix. 5.3 Alternatives Several alternatives to the above mentioned projects were considered but rejected, due to costs, ineffectiveness at solving issues, or due to complexity and technical uncertainty about the feasibility. 5.3.1 Reconductoring Soldotna – Diamond Ridge 115 kV line A project to reconstruct the 115 kV Diamond Ridge – Soldotna transmission line was evaluated against the construction of a new 115 kV Bradley Lake – Soldotna transmission line. The project would include upgrading the conductor from 4/0 to 556 ACSR “Dove” and would require reconstruction due to distribution underbuild and shorter spans. The Soldotna – Diamond Ridge reconstruction is a significantly longer line at a higher cost/mile. In addition to the higher costs, simulations indicate that the reconstructed Soldotna - Diamond Ridge – line cannot provide unconstrained operation of the Bradley Lake project due to instabilities. Therefore, adding a second Soldotna – Bradley Lake line section is the preferred alternative. 5.3.2 Bradley Lake – Quartz 115 kV line A project to add a line directly from Bradley Lake to Quartz Creek (no termination at Soldotna) was evaluated against construction of a line from Bradley Lake to Soldotna. The direct line from Bradley Lake to Quartz Creek cannot provide unconstrained operation of the Bradley Lake project due to instabilities. Therefore, adding a second line from Bradley Lake to Soldotna is the preferred alternative. 5.3.3 AC Bernice – Anchorage Southern Intertie A project to add the Southern Intertie between Bernice and Pt. Woronzof was evaluated against the addition of the HVDC line between Bernice and Beluga. The Southern Intertie was evaluated at both 138 and 230 kV voltages. For both voltage levels, the intertie would incur higher costs due to the need for reactive support for the charging current for the cables. Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 30 Although feasible, the technical complexities of energizing a 120 MVAr (minimum) submarine cable/reactor/SVC combination in an isolated electrical system would require specialized studies (including switching surges encountered during energizing/de-energization of the cables and reactors, the possibility of subsynchronous resonance, and the different methods of energization) and would be considerably more complex than the existing system’s operation. Therefore, the addition of the HVDC tie is the preferred alternative. 5.3.4 2nd Soldotna – Quartz 115 kV line A project to add a second 115 kV transmission line between Soldotna – Quartz Creek was evaluated. When evaluated together with the HVDC intertie and upgrading the existing Kenai Tie to 230 kV, the second line shows no increases in transfer capability during winter peak conditions as well as minimal reduction in losses. During summer peak conditions, an outage of the HVDC intertie during maximum Kenai exports requires a reduction in Bradley Lake generation of about 20 MW. This reduction can happen in a relatively long amount of time (15 – 30 minutes) and is not a stability requirement that must happen instantaneously. The BESS and Flexible Gas Storage projects would facilitate the required Anchorage generation increase to eliminate the overloads. The addition of a second Soldotna – Quartz Creek 115 kV line without the HVDC line was also evaluated. To achieve unconstrained use of Bradley Lake and Cooper Lake capacity and energy, the Anchorage area would require a significant increase in both flexible gas storage and BESS size and costs due to the single contingency transmission line between Quartz Creek and University stations. Due to the high costs, the addition of a second Soldotna – Quartz Creek 115 kV line is not recommended. Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 31 6 Pre-Watana: Improvements to the Southcentral Transmission The existing 115 kV transmission system from Briggs Tap to Eklutna consists of a double circuit 115 kV transmission line, with only one energized. Currently there is no room at the Eklutna or Briggs Tap substations to connect the second line. The single 115 kV connection between MEA and AML&P (via Briggs Tap) limits the reliability of transfers between the two areas and results in outages to a significant number of MEA customers as well as isolation of critical ML&P generation from the ML&P system. A switching station in the Briggs/Fossil area and a new substation at the Eklutna Hydro Plant will allow energization of the “express” line between Eklutna and Anchorage. The express line will increase reliability of the MEA system serving Eagle River and Chugiak and provide a black start-source for the ML&P system. The single 230kV transmission line between Pt. McKenzie and Teeland is presently the weakest link in the Southcentral transmission system. Its loss curtails power transfers to the Matanuska/Susitna Valley as well as to the Northern Intertie. The transmission line is the primary interconnection to the Anchorage-Fairbanks Intertie. The line increases the single- contingency outage to the Fairbanks area by 26 miles. Elimination of the single contingency service from Pt. McKenzie to Teeland increases the reliability of the Anchorage-Fairbanks Intertie and increases the stability limit between the two systems. The displacement of Beluga generation with new generation at Southcentral Power Plant, Plant 2A, Nikiski / Soldotna, and EGS, results in many parts of the transmission system unloaded during light load conditions. The 138 kV and 230 kV undersea cables as well as other parts of the transmission system will exhibit high voltages during these conditions, especially at the terminals of the 230 kV undersea cable. These high voltages require reactive compensation on the transmission system to reduce voltages down to acceptable levels. 6.1 Proposed Improvement Projects The proposed improvements for the Southcentral transmission system are new substations at Eklutna and Fossil Creek to allow the existing express line to be energized; a new station at Lake Lorraine, expansion of the Douglas Station and the construction of new Lorraine – Douglas transmission lines to eliminate the single contingency transmission line between Douglas and the Southcentral system. 6.1.1 Eklutna 115kV Substation This project includes the construction of a new 115 kV substation at Eklutna. The Eklutna substation is currently located on the roof of the Eklutna Power Plant and has no room for expansion. The new substation will be constructed adjacent to the power plant. The project includes the construction of a 115 kV substation to interconnect the Eklutna Express circuit, the Eklutna local circuit, and the 115 kV Palmer circuit as well as the generating units at the plant. 6.1.2 Fossil Creek 115 kV Substation This project includes the construction of a 115 kV substation near the existing Briggs Tap/Fossil Creek on the Eklutna – ML&P transmission line. The projects includes the construction of a 115 kV substation to interconnect the Eklutna Express circuit, the Eklutna local circuit, the Briggs Tap circuit and the ML&P express circuit with provisions for future 230/115 kV transformers and Raptor substation interconnections. Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 32 The substation would allow a second transmission path between the AML&P and MEA transmission systems and increase the critical clearing time for transmission lines in the AML&P and MEA systems. 6.1.3 Lake Lorraine Station This project includes the construction of a 230 kV substation, near the junction of Chugach’s 230 kV West Terminal and its Teeland transmission line in the vicinity of Lake Lorraine. The substation will intersect the Pt. Mackenzie – Teeland and Pt. Mackenzie – Plant 2 230 kV transmission lines. The substation will be built to include six line terminations, 2 – 230 kV lines to Pt. Mackenzie, one to Teeland, one to Plant 2, and two for a future 230 kV double circuit line to Douglas. Terminals at the substation will also be included for reactive compensation and a possible future 230 / 115 kV transformer. A -40/+25 MVAr SVC will also be constructed at Lake Lorraine to control voltages on the Railbelt system. The proposed substation location is near one end of the undersea 230 kV cable, maximizing the effect of the reactive compensation. The addition of the Lake Lorraine 230 kV substation eliminates 26 miles of single contingency 230 kV line from Pt. Mackenzie to Teeland and an additional 26 miles of single contingency from Teeland to Douglas and provides a connection point for transmission line additions to Douglas substation. 6.1.4 Douglas Station Expansion This project includes the construction of the 230 kV / 138 kV substation at the existing Douglas substation near Willow, Alaska. The substation will serve as the voltage conversion for the 138 kV Anchorage-Fairbanks Intertie and will include two 230 kV / 138 kV substation transformers. The station will be constructed for two 230 kV / 138 kV power transformers, two 230kV transmission line terminations (Lorraine to Douglas), two 138 kV transmission lines (Healy/Gold Creek) built to 230 kV but operated at 138 kV, one 138 kV / 24.9 kV power transformer, and one 138 kV line (Teeland). 6.1.5 Lake Lorraine – Douglas 230 kV Transmission Lines This project includes the construction of a 42-mile, 230 kV double circuit transmission line from Lake Lorraine substation to Douglas Substation. The transmission line addition eliminates 50 miles of single contingency 230 kV/138kV line to Fairbanks on the Alaska Intertie. The line will be constructed as a single tower, double-circuit transmission line utilizing construction similar to the Eklutna-Fossil Creek line (double circuit, bundled 954 ACSR “Rail” conductor). 6.2 Costs A summary of the costs and benefits of the proposed projects for the Southcentral Railbelt were presented in Table 2-5 of the Pre-Watana Executive Summary. Further cost analysis for the Southcentral transmission is shown in section A.6 of the Appendix. 6.3 Alternatives and Sensitivity No alternatives or sensitivities were analyzed. Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 33 7 Pre-Watana: Improvements to the Northern Railbelt Transmission Anchorage exports to the GVEA system mainly flow through a single 230 kV transmission line from Pt. Mackenzie to Teeland, then a single 138 kV line from Teeland to Healy. An outage of the 26 mile 230 kV line severely reduces the energy export capability of Anchorage, forcing exports to flow through the MEA system. Historically, fault and trips of these line sections represent the worst contingencies on the Railbelt system. The single 195 mile, 138 kV line that connects Teeland to Healy limits the ability for GVEA to contract for firm energy sales due to possible outages of the line that would island GVEA from the rest of the Railbelt. This single transmission line also limits transfer levels between areas due both stability limits and single contingency outages. The Healy transfer limits are shown in Table 7-1. Note that the transfer levels are dependent upon the generation dispatch of the Healy Plant 2 (Healy #2), the existing Healy plant (Healy #1), and the Eva Creek wind farm. The summer valley season exhibits no stability limit due to the low load levels in the Fairbanks area until Healy / Eva Creek generation is reduced below 30 MW. When Healy generation is reduced, the maximum transfer limits out of Douglas substation is between 57 – 61 MW. The summer peak cases have a maximum transfer limit of ranging from 58 – 79 MW. The winter peak cases have a maximum transfer limit from 68-74 MW. Table 7-1 Healy Stability Limits – Base System #2 #1 Eva Export Export Export 16226‐29 24 ‐48958 148 68 157 26226‐29 ‐21 89 74 138 73 138 362‐24 22 89 79 141 74 137 462‐‐48 89 79 117 74 112 5 ‐26‐29 24 47 89 74 112 68 107 6 ‐26‐29 ‐61 78 74 88 68 83 7 ‐‐24 57 73 79 91 68 82 8 ‐‐‐62 53 79 68 68 57 Fairbanks at Minimum, no stability limit Dispatch Healy Summer Valley Summer Peak Winter Peak Douglas   Export Healy  Douglas   Export Healy  Douglas  Export Healy   7.1 Proposed Improvement Projects It is proposed to add transmission infrastructure from the recommended Lorraine substation to Healy. The result would be a path of two effective circuits of bundled 954 ACSR “Rail” conductor for 194 miles from Lorraine to Healy. The proposed transmission improvements greatly increase the reliability of GVEA imports due to new transmission lines that offer parallel paths for energy to be transferred into the GVEA system from Anchorage. The addition of the second 138 kV line between Healy and Douglas and the Lorraine 230 kV substation (including SVC) with 230 kV dual circuit transmission lines to Douglas increase the Healy transfer limits by different amounts depending on the generation dispatch at Healy, shown in Table 7-2. One significant difference between the limits in the proposed system compared to the existing system is the change in power exports from “economy” to firm transfers. In the present system all transfers are economy and can be interrupted by either the seller or any number of single contingency transmission paths between the seller and Healy. The proposed Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 34 system provides for firm power sales and purchases, allowing energy transfers north or south up to the specified limits without interruption for single-contingency events. The firm transmission system would also allow for sharing of firm capacity between the northern and southern systems. The transmission upgrades allow for unconstrained Healy operation while allowing for GVEA owned Fairbanks generation to be taken off-line for the summer valley cases. The summer peak cases allow for transfers of up to 173 MW of firm power from Douglas to the north. The maximum transfer levels (due to stability constraints) are not impacted by changes in Healy generation. GVEA is able to remove all of its Fairbanks generation for all Healy generation dispatches. The winter peak cases allow for transfers of up to 197 MW of firm energy from Douglas to the north. The maximum transfer levels (due to stability constraints) are not impacted by changes in Healy generation. GVEA is able to remove most of its Fairbanks generation for many of the different Healy generation dispatches. As Healy/Eva Creek generation is increased, the limiting contingency becomes a fault and trip of the Pt. Mackenzie – Lorraine 230 kV line instead of being limited by the amount of load the energy is available to serve. Table 7-2 Healy Stability Limits – Proposed Upgrades #2 #1 Eva Export Export Export 1 622924 ‐4 89 67 158 127 216 26229‐21 89 92 158 153 216 362‐24 22 89 94 158 155 216 4 62 ‐‐48 89 119 158 181 216 5 ‐29 24 47 89 119 158 181 216 6 ‐29 ‐72 89 145 158 168 179 7 ‐‐24 73 89 147 158 173 183 8 ‐‐‐99 89 173 158 197 144 Anchorage 230 kV Line  Outages Douglas  Export Healy  Healy  Douglas  Export Healy   Fairbanks at Minimum, no stability limit Dispatch Healy Summer Valley Summer Peak Winter Peak Douglas  Export While allowing for increased reliability and potentially reducing energy costs via the ability to utilize firm energy contracts, the transmission projects will also reduce the losses from Anchorage to Healy by 70%, from 5.3 MW to 1.7 MW for transfers of 75 MW as measured near the Gold Creek substation location. Figure 7-1 shows the difference in losses between the base system and the proposed system, for line flows from 0 to 110 MW. This 3.6 MW loss reduction is due to doubling the transmission system between Douglas and Healy with the addition of the second Douglas – Healy line, and due to the addition of the 2 new Lorraine – Douglas transmission lines. Note that transfers of 110 MW for the base system is well beyond that stability limits of the system and therefore is not a recommended nor is a realistic operating point. Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 35 Figure 7-1 Anchorage – Healy Loss Analysis: Base vs. Proposed 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 0 102030405060708090100110Line Losses (MW)Flow on Cantwell  ‐Stevens Line  Section (MW) Loss  Analysis:  Anchorage to Healy                  Base vs Proposed Transmission Configuration Base Proposed 7.1.1 Lake Lorraine Station As discussed in 6.1.3 Lake Lorraine Station, this project includes the construction of a 230 kV substation, in the vicinity of Lake Lorraine. A -40/+25 MVAr SVC will also be constructed at Lake Lorraine to control voltages on the Railbelt system. The addition of the Lake Lorraine 230 kV substation eliminates 26 miles of single contingency 230 kV line from Pt. Mackenzie to Teeland and provides a connection point for transmission line additions to Douglas substation 7.1.2 Douglas Station Expansion As discussed in 6.1.4 Douglas Station Expansion, this project includes the construction of the 230 kV / 138 kV substation at the existing Douglas substation near Willow, Alaska. The substation will serve as the voltage conversion for the 138 kV Anchorage-Fairbanks Intertie and will include two 230 kV / 138 kV substation transformers. 7.1.3 Lake Lorraine – Douglas 230 kV Transmission Lines As discussed in 6.1.5 Lake Lorraine – Douglas 230 kV Transmission Lines, this project includes the construction of a 42-mile, 230 kV double circuit transmission line from Lake Lorraine substation to Douglas Substation. The transmission line addition eliminates 50 miles of single contingency 230 kV/138kV line to Fairbanks on the Alaska Intertie. This transmission line and the above mentioned substation additions (Lake Lorraine / Douglas expansion) will allow large and reliable energy transfers from Anchorage to Fairbanks, as well as the possible energy transfers associated with future large hydro projects. The addition of this line completes a corridor of needed transmission infrastructure between the Lake Lorraine substation in Anchorage and the Healy substation near Fairbanks (including the proposed 2nd Douglas - Healy line). Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 36 7.1.4 Gold Creek Station This project includes the construction of a 230 kV (operated at 138 kV) substation near Gold Creek on the Alaska Intertie. The station will provide compensation and sectionalizing support for the Anchorage – Healy transmission lines and will include 4 line terminals and two reactors. Provisions for 3 additional line terminals could allow the future connection to the Watana Hydro Project. The addition of the Gold Creek substation will reduce the reactive support requirement by more than 50% compared to locating support at Douglas and / or Healy. The station also improves the stability and sectionalizing by dividing the Douglas to Healy by approximately 50% of its existing length. The Gold Creek substation will utilize two 15 MVAr reactors to control voltage along the lines between Healy and Douglas. The reactors can remain in service even during heavy transfer conditions without the voltage decreasing below limits. 7.1.5 Healy Station This project includes the construction of a 230 kV (operated at 138 kV to Gold Creek) substation near Healy, Alaska on the Alaska Intertie. The station will allow the termination of an additional line from Gold Creek into the Healy Plant. The station will be constructed for future operation at 230 kV to Gold Creek should a future large hydro project come on-line. The station will include terminations for two 230 kV (operated at 138 kV) lines to Gold Creek, 230 kV lines to GVEA’s Wilson Substation and GVEA’s Gold Hill Substation, and a line to the existing Healy plant. 7.1.6 2nd Douglas - Healy 230 kV transmission line (operated at 138 kV) This project includes the construction of a 171-mile, 230 kV (operated at 138 kV) transmission line from Douglas substation to Healy substation, connecting with the proposed new Gold Creek substation. The line will be constructed as a single-circuit transmission line utilizing construction similar to the existing Anchorage-Fairbanks Intertie at 230 kV. The line will utilize bundled, 954 conductor to minimize losses and match the characteristics of the existing line. The line will terminate at the Douglas, Gold Creek, and Healy stations. The addition of the second 138 kV line from Healy to Douglas greatly increases the reliability of energy transfers into Healy and significantly reduces losses. The second line eliminates GVEA islanding due to single contingencies and allows the import of energy into the GVEA system to become firm, allowing economic transfer of energy and more flexibility in capacity sharing and planning. The transfer levels also increase due to the addition of this line. The addition of this line completes a corridor of transmission infrastructure between the Lake Lorraine substation (including the proposed Lorraine – Douglas lines) in the Anchorage area and the Healy substation near Fairbanks. 7.1.7 Communication Infrastructure This project includes the development and installation of communication infrastructure between the Teeland, Lorraine, Douglas, Gold Creek and Healy sub-stations. The communications will be used for high-speed protective relaying communications between control areas and for control and monitoring of the substation equipment. 7.2 Costs A summary of the costs and benefits of the proposed projects to provide reliability and economic energy transfers between the northern and southern systems was presented in of the Pre- Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 37 Watana Executive Summary. Further cost analysis for the Northcentral transmission is shown in section A.7 of the Appendix. 7.3 Sensitivities Sensitivity analysis was completed to determine the impact that changes in generation dispatch and possible transfer trip of load during contingencies would have on the GVEA import limits. 7.3.1 Eva Creek Analysis Analysis of the base transmission system was completed with the Eva Creek wind farm to determine the impact of Eva Creek find farm status on the GVEA import limits with the lines from Healy into Fairbanks not upgraded to 230 kV. The wind farm was analyzed at minimal output and with the wind farm offline. The results of this analysis are shown in Table 7-3. When Eva Creek is online but at minimal output (2 MW), the GVEA import limits are increased 3-4 MW for the summer peak cases, with no change in the limits for the winter peak cases as compared with Eva Creek offline. Table 7-3 Eva Creek Analysis HC2 HC1 Eva Export Export SP WP 2e 62 29 2 79 143 73 138 26229‐74 138 73 138 4e 62 ‐2 84 122 74 112 462‐‐79 117 74 112 50 50 Dispatch Healy Summer Peak Winter Peak Douglas  Export Douglas  Export Healy  Douglas  Export Healy   7.3.2 Zehnder Dispatch Analysis The addition of the transmission upgrades between Anchorage and Healy could allow for changes in GVEA system dispatch to allow for the light inertial LM6000 at North Pole to be displaced by the two Frame 5 units at Zehnder during the summer peak load season. The results of this analysis are shown in Table 7-4. Displacing North Pole generation with the Zehnder frame 5 units results in increased import limits of 5 – 18 MW with North Pole unit #3 online. The unit commitment change also allows for a total of 5 generation dispatches (increase from 2) that allow for unconstrained Healy import levels. Table 7-4 North Pole LM6000 vs. Zehnder Frame 5 Analysis HC2 HC1 Eva Export Export 1 62 29 24 73 162 73 162 ‐ 26229‐84 148 102 162 18 362‐24 100 162 100 162 ‐ 462‐‐113 150 118 155 5 5 ‐29 24 113 151 123 162 10 6 ‐29 ‐128 141 135 146 7 7 ‐‐24 133 145 151 162 18 8 ‐‐‐138 125 153 140 15 Fairbanks at Minimum, no stability limit Dispatch Healy Summer Peak Summer Peak Douglas  Export  Increase Douglas  Export Healy  Douglas  Export Healy   Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 38 The difference in transfer limits between the North Pole unit 3 and the Zehnder units is due to light inertia associated with the LM6000 unit at North Pole. A comparison of the inertia of the LM6000 with the frame 5 and frame 7 units is shown below in Table 7-5. While the light inertia of the LM6000 allows the unit to respond quickly during low frequency events, fault conditions can result in the unit accelerating and going out of step with the rest of the system. Table 7-5 GVEA Unit Inertia Analysis H ‐ Inertia Name ID Type Zehnder 1 Frame  5 20.6 9.0 N. Pole 1 Frame 7 71.9 7.8 N. Pole CC 3 LM6000 60.0 2.2 Unit Mbase   (MVA) MW‐s / MVA 7.3.3 Load Transfer Trip Analysis The winter peak load season transfer limits do not allow for complete displacement of North Pole unit 3 generation without upgrading the transmission system between Healy and Fairbanks to 230 kV. This results in the North Pole unit remaining online with the two Zehnder units at maximum output. Analysis of the stability results shows that during maximum Healy generation conditions and maximum Douglas transfers, a low voltage swing occurs for fault and trips of the transmission lines from Healy to Fairbanks. The low voltage condition (approximately 1 second long) results in the protection system blocking the BESS, negating any benefits of the auto – scheduling capability quickly reducing transfers into the GVEA system. Another method of reducing transfers into the GVEA system quickly is to transfer trip load for contingencies from Lorraine substation north to the Wilson / Gold Hill substations. Analysis of 20 and 40 MW trip settings was completed for the winter peak cases. It was assumed that the load would be shed 5 cycles after clearing of the fault (10 cycles after start of fault). The results of the analysis are shown below in Table 7-6. The results are for a transmission system configuration with two lines from Healy to Douglas operated at 138 kV and the lines north of Healy not upgraded. Table 7-6 Load Transfer Trip Analysis – Winter Peak System HC2 HC1 Eva Export Export Export 20 MW 40 MW 1 62 29 24 77 167 97 186 107 196 20 30 26229‐97 162 102 167 134 197 5 37 362‐24 107 170 128 190 134 195 21 27 4 62 ‐‐123 161 133 170 154 190 10 31 5 ‐29 24 123 161 133 171 133 171 10 10 6 ‐29 ‐118 132 118 132 118 132 0 0 7 ‐‐24 123 136 123 136 123 136 0 0 8 ‐‐‐128 116 128 116 128 116 0 0 Douglas  Export  Increase no change  in results, limiting contingency  is Lorraine  ‐ Plant 2, or Lorraine  ‐ Pt. Mack Dispatch Healy 2nd  Healy  ‐ Douglas 20 MW Trip 40 MW  Trip Douglas  Export Healy Douglas  Export Healy Douglas  Export Healy  The results of the transfer trip analysis show that increases in transfer capability occur for generation scenarios with high levels of Healy output. A 20 MW trip of load results in increases of the Douglas transfer limits by 5 – 21 MW. A 40 MW trip of load results in increases of 10-37 Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 39 MW. As Healy output is decreased the effect of transfer tripping load is mitigated due to the limiting contingency changing from fault and trips of lines in Fairbanks to fault and trips of the 230 kV system south of the proposed Lorraine substation. 7.3.4 Healy – Fairbanks Transmission Line Upgrades Analysis of two different transmission upgrades between the Healy and Fairbanks locations were analyzed. The two transmission upgrades are adding 1) 3rd 138 kV line between Healy and Fairbanks and 2) upgrading and operating the 2 138 kV lines at 230 kV. The 3rd 138 kV line would be of similar construction and distance as the current Healy – Wilson 138 kV transmission line. The 230 kV upgrade includes rebuilding the Healy to Gold Hill line utilizing 230 kV construction and 954 “Rail” conductor. The Healy – Wilson line is already built to 230 kV standards. Transfer analysis was completed with the different transmission upgrades to determine the new transfer limit for the summer peak and winter peak cases. The results are shown in Table 7-7 and Table 7-8, respectively. Note that the analysis assumes the second line between Douglas and Healy has been installed and is operated at 138 kV. Table 7-7 Healy – Fairbanks Transmission Upgrades – Summer Peak HC2 HC1 Eva Export Export Export 1 62 29 24 73 162 69 160 67 158 26229‐102 162 94 160 92 158 362‐24 100 162 96 160 94 158 4 62 ‐‐100 162 121 160 119 158 5 ‐29 24 123 162 121 160 119 158 6 ‐29 ‐135 146 147 160 145 158 7 ‐‐24 151 162 148 160 147 158 8 ‐‐‐153 140 175 160 173 158 Fairbanks at Minimum, no stability limit Healy  Douglas   Export Healy  Dispatch Healy Base  Fairbanks 3rd 138 kV line 230 kV Conversion Douglas   Export Healy  Douglas  Export Table 7-8 Healy – Fairbanks Transmission Upgrades – Winter Peak HC2 HC1 Eva Export Export Export 1 62 29 24 77 167 131 219 127 216 26229‐97 162 157 219 153 216 362‐24 107 170 159 219 155 216 4 62 ‐‐123 161 175 209 181 216 5 ‐29 24 123 161 150 187 181 216 6 ‐29 ‐118 132 131 144 168 179 7 ‐‐24 123 136 171 181 173 183 8 ‐‐‐128 116 152 138 197 144 Fairbanks at Minimum, no stability limit Healy  Douglas  Export Healy  Dispatch Healy Base  Fairbanks 3rd 138 kV line 230 kV Conversion Douglas   Export Healy  Douglas   Export The summer peak results show that additional transmission upgrades between Healy and Fairbanks allow for unconstrained Healy generation and the Fairbanks ability to import all Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 40 energy required to serve GVEA loads for many Healy generation dispatches. For the summer peak cases, the additional 138 kV line has the same results as the 230 kV transmission upgrades. The winter peak cases show that the 230 kV transmission upgrades result in higher transfer limits (127-197 MW) than the additional 138 kV line between Healy and Fairbanks (131 – 175 MW). The 230 kV transmission upgrades also allow for more Healy generation dispatches with GVEA generation in Fairbanks able to be turned offline. Load transfer trip analysis was completed for the two different transmission upgrades between Healy and Fairbanks. The results for the 3rd 138 kV line and the 230 kV upgrade are shown below in Table 7-9 and Table 7-10, respectively. Table 7-9 Load Transfer Trip Analysis – 3rd 138 kV Line – Winter Peak HC2 HC1 Eva Export Export 1 62 29 24 131 219 131 219 26229‐157 219 157 219 362‐24 159 219 159 219 462‐‐175 209 175 209 5 ‐29 24 150 187 185 219 6 ‐29 ‐131 144 131 144 7 ‐‐24 171 181 171 181 8 ‐‐‐152 138 152 138 no change  in results, limiting contingency  is Lorraine  ‐  Plant 2, or Lorraine  ‐ Pt. Mack Fairbanks at Minimum, no stability limit Dispatch Healy 3rd  138 kV Line 20 MW  Trip Douglas  Export Healy  Douglas  Export Healy  The load transfer trip analysis shows that only for dispatch case 5, does the trip of load increase the transfer limits. The other cases do not have an increase in transfer limits due to the limiting contingency being a fault and trip of the Lorraine – Plant 2 or the Lorraine – Pt. Mack 230 kV transmission lines. Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 41 Table 7-10 Load Transfer Trip Analysis – 230 kV Upgrade – Winter Peak HC2 HC1 Eva Export Export Export 1 62 29 24 127 216 127 216 127 216 26229‐153 216 153 216 153 216 362‐24 155 216 155 216 155 216 462‐‐181 216 181 216 181 216 5 ‐29 24 181 216 181 216 181 216 6 ‐29 ‐168 179 173 183 178 187 7 ‐‐24 173 183 173 183 173 183 8 ‐‐‐197 144 197 144 197 144 Fairbanks at Minimum, no stability limit no change  in results, limiting contingency  is Lorraine  ‐ Plant 2, or Lorraine  ‐  Pt. Mack Dispatch Healy 230 kV Upgrade 20 MW  Trip 40 MW Trip Douglas   Export Healy Douglas  Export Healy  Douglas  Export Healy   The analysis shows that when upgrading the lines between Healy and Fairbanks, the load transfer trip does not increase the transfer limits except for case 6. This is due to the limiting contingency being a fault and trip of the Lorraine – Plant 2 or the Lorraine – Pt. Mack 230 kV transmission lines. Upgrading of the 138 kV lines from Healy north to Gold Hill and Wilson result in significant increases in transfer limits from Anchorage to the GVEA system in Healy and Fairbanks and allow for GVEA to serve its load from only Healy generation and imports for many of the Healy generation dispatches. 7.4 Alternatives Strengthening the transmission tie between Douglas and Healy can only be accomplished by adding a second transmission line between these substations. Several options have previously been investigated to increase the energy transfers between the Anchorage area and Douglas. The installation of a new substation near Lake Lorraine and constructing new transmission lines between this station and Douglas has been found to be the most economical solution. Operation of the Healy – Douglas tie at 230kV and upgrading lines north of Healy has been investigated below. 7.4.1 Healy – Douglas 138 kV operation at 230 kV This project includes operating the two lines (one existing, one proposed) from Douglas – Gold Creek – Healy at 230 kV instead of 138 kV. Operating the lines at 230 kV results in significant reactive support requirements while providing minimal additional increases in Healy transfer limits. This is due to transfer constraints from the Healy – Gold Hill and Healy – Wilson 138 kV line sections (assuming the lines are not operated and / or upgraded to 230 kV). Based on the expected Healy import levels, it is recommended that if a second line is built between Healy and Douglas that it is constructed to 230 kV but operated at 138 kV to reduce the added reactor expense until such a time that energy flows over the tie support the operation at 230 kV. Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 42 8 Pre-Watana: Economic Benefit Analysis The economic benefit of the proposed transmission projects can be classified as production cost benefits and other benefits which include; Capacity Deferral, Reservoir Management, Unserved Energy, Excess Energy. All estimates in this simplified analysis were based on one years’ worth of production cost benefits analysis and assuming these benefits remain constant throughout the 50-year life of the project. This is thought to be a conservative assumption since unit retirements and capacity replacement in the future was not considered in the benefit analysis, nor were the economic benefits of central plant construction that are possible with an integrated transmission system. 8.1 Production Cost Benefits Slater Consulting was asked to examine the impacts of the proposed transmission upgrades on the Railbelt system production costs. Slater’s work only examined system production costs, that is, the sum of fuel costs and variable Operation & Maintenance cost, (V O&M.) No assessment of possible savings in capital costs for deferment of future generation additions or refurbishments, fixed O&M costs of plants retired or not added, nor of the benefits to customers of improved system reliability. The study was performed for the year 2020. All transmission additions and changes currently planned to be completed by that time have been included. All generation additions and retirements currently committed or anticipated are included, as are all forecast changes in system loads. The objective of the various analyses carried out in this study was to determine the level of production cost savings that can be realized if all of the transmission upgrades proposed by EPS are carried out, and to explore the amount of these savings that can be attributed to each of the individual upgrades. To ensure that these savings are not exaggerated, conservative assumptions were made where such choices were available. 8.1.1 Software Employed The software employed in this study was PROMOD IV®. Within that program, there are several different production simulation algorithms available. Previously, for the Susitna-Watana study, we had used the Analytical Probabilistic Dispatch algorithm, because of its facility to optimally allocate an annual resource, Watana water, over the months of the year, respecting the various inflows, storage constraints, and monthly production cost determinants. For this study, we used the Hourly Monte Carlo / Transmission Analysis methodology, because of its ability to represent, within its economic commitment and dispatch modeling, the transmission system on an individual bus and branch basis in a DC loadflow representation. This transmission modeling includes the bus-by-bus distribution of generation and load and allows for the monitoring and respecting of thermal, stability and other operating limits and the calculation of transmission losses. 8.1.2 Data and Information Sources The starting point of the company generation and load data was the data used in the 2012 Susitna-Watana studies, as modified by consultations with utility personnel. Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 43 Further modifications and clarifications were provided as interim results were viewed and discussed. Company specific hourly deterministic dispatch results proved to be very useful for this purpose. Obviously, fuel prices have a significant impact on the results of this analysis. To maintain conservatism, the gas price forecast was one of the Susitna-Watana scenarios, which started at a 2012 Anchorage area price of $6.50/mmBTU, and escalated at 4% per year. The prices for other fuels began with actual 2012 prices, and escalated in keeping with the DOE Energy Information Administration’s Annual Energy Outlook. The detailed transmission data was obtained from two power flow outputs provided by EPS Inc., one for the system with no transmission upgrades, and the second with all upgrades. Transmission upgrade scenarios that included just some of the upgrades were created within PROMOD by starting with one of the original power flow representations and replacing certain elements with appropriate elements from the other power flow. Stability and interface flow limits, as determined from EPS’s studies were provided for each transmission upgrade scenario to be examined. 8.1.3 Transmission Upgrades Examined The upgrades to be examined were grouped into those in the Railbelt system south of the Anchorage area to Seward and the Kenai peninsula, and those in the Railbelt system north of the Anchorage area and up to Fairbanks. The specific southern upgrades are as follows.  Increasing the capability of the AC system from Quartz Creek to University by adding additional conductor to the Quartz Creek to Dave’s Creek line, and by converting the lines and substations connecting Dave’s Creek to University to 230 kV operation.  Adding a 100 MW DC tie from Bernice to Beluga.  Adding an appropriately sized BESS in the Anchorage area.  Adding a second direct line from Bradley Lake to Soldotna. The specific northern changes are as follows, all resulting in N-1 transfer capabilities between the noted terminals.  A 230 kV upgrade connecting Lake Lorraine to Douglas.  Douglas to Healy upgrade.  Healy to Fairbanks 230 kV To calculate the production cost savings for these transmission upgrades as a group and to estimate the savings due to each individual upgrade project, nine production cases were developed and modeled. During the development of these cases, other cases were run, but these nine cases were chosen because it was judged that each best represented the way the system would be run given that particular transmission configuration, and assuming that operation at N-1 reliability is desired. It is worth noting at this point that the Railbelt system is not presently operated at N-1 reliability, but to ensure “apples v apples” comparisons among the cases that were evaluated, they all assumed operation as close to N-1 reliability as practical and reasonable. Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 44 8.1.4 Case NS0 This case includes all of the northern and southern upgrades listed above. Because all important transmission interfaces have substantial firm (that is N-1) flow limits, the Railbelt system is committed and dispatched as a single pool, with the objective of minimizing total system production costs. In this case, the only transmission interface which has a limit which affects the system commitment and dispatch is the Kenai-North interface, where the limit of 125 MW is supported by a 25 MW BESS in the Anchorage area. Bradley is modeled as 2 x 45 MW generating units and 27 MW of spinning reserve capability. The worst contingency is the loss of the AC circuit from the Kenai to University Substation, while the interface is carrying 125 MW. If this occurred, the 25 MW BESS and the DC line would have to provide the 125 MW inflow to the Anchorage area until just one CT unit is successfully started. 8.1.5 Case S1 This case includes all of the northern and southern upgrades listed above, except the upgrading of the AC circuits from Quartz Creek to University. Because all important transmission interfaces have firm (that is N-1) flow limits, the Railbelt system is committed and dispatched as a single pool, with the objective of minimizing total system production costs. In this case, the only transmission interface which has a limit which affects the system commitment and dispatch is the Kenai-North interface, where the limit of 100 MW is supported by a 25 MW BESS in the Anchorage area. Bradley is modeled as 2 x 45 MW generating units and 27 MW of spinning reserve capability. The worst contingency is the loss of the DC circuit from the Bernice to Beluga, while the interface is carrying 100 MW. If this occurred, the 25 MW BESS and the existing AC circuit, which has a capability of 75MW would have to provide the 100 MW inflow to the Anchorage area until just one CT unit was successfully started. 8.1.6 Case S2 This case includes all of the northern and southern upgrades listed above, except the installation of the DC line between Bernice and Beluga. Because all important transmission interfaces have firm (that is N-1) flow limits, the Railbelt system is committed and dispatched as a single pool, with the objective of minimizing total system production costs. In this case, the only transmission interface which has a limit which affects the system commitment and dispatch is the Kenai-North interface, where the limit of 75 MW is supported by a 75 MW BESS in the Anchorage area. Bradley is modeled as 2 x 45 MW generating units and 27 MW of spinning reserve capability. The worst contingency is the loss of the AC circuit from the Kenai to University, while the interface is carrying 75 MW. If this occurred, the 75 MW BESS would have to provide up to its 75 MW capability until three CT units were successfully started. Even though this system configuration could be operated as N-1 reliable, it obviously does not provide the same reliability as Case S1 8.1.7 Case S3 This case includes all of the northern upgrades listed above, but in the south, the only upgrade is the second direct line from Bradley Lake to Soldotna. Because the Kenai North transmission interface, now has a 0 MW firm flow limit, the Railbelt system cannot be committed and dispatched as a single pool. Instead, it is operated as two pools, one with just HEA and the other with the remaining five utilities. The non-firm Kenai North flow limit is 75 MW, modified by the presence of Nikiski and Cooper generation. Reservations are made against this limit to accommodate the shares of the Bradley spinning reserve capability belonging to the utilities north of the interface and to accommodate the HEA share of system spinning reserve. Commitment price hurdles are in place between HEA and each of the other utilities to ensure Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 45 that HEA commits its own generation to serve its own needs and only its own needs, while dispatch hurdles are in place to restrict non-firm transactions to those with high profit margins. 8.1.8 Case S4 This case includes all of the northern upgrades listed above, but no southern upgrades. The only difference between this case and Case S3 is that without the second direct line from Bradley to Soldotna, the Stability limit for Bradley Lake generation is only 100 MW. To accommodate this, Bradley Lake is modeled as 2x45 MW units and 10 MW of spinning reserve capability. 8.1.9 Cases N1 – N3 These cases include all of the Southern upgrades listed above. In these cases, the Kenai-North interface, has a 125 MW limit that is supported by a 25 MW BESS in the Anchorage area. Bradley is modeled as 2 x 45 MW generating units and 27 MW of spinning reserve capability. 8.1.10 Case N1 This case includes the upgrades from Lake Lorraine to Douglas and Douglas to Healy, but excludes the upgrade from Healy to Fairbanks, leaving the Fairbanks area vulnerable. To provide a measure of protection for Fairbanks during the winter, it was assumed that the North Pole CC would be a must run unit from October through March. 8.1.11 Case N2 The only northern project included in this case is the upgrade from Lake Lorraine to Douglas. Without a firm connection north into Healy, the Railbelt system cannot be run as a single pool. Instead, it is run as two pools. One pool is GVEA, while the second is the other five utilities. Connecting the two pools is a non-firm tie with a 75 MW limit. Commitment price hurdles are in place between GVEA and each of the other utilities to ensure that GVEA commits its own generation to serve its own needs and only its own needs, while dispatch hurdles are in place to restrict non-firm transactions to those with high profit margins. 8.1.12 Case N3 This case has no northern upgrades. Without a firm connection north into Healy, the Railbelt system cannot be run as a single pool. Instead, it is run as two pools. One pool is GVEA, while the second is the other five utilities. Connecting the two pools is a non-firm tie with a 75 MW limit. Commitment price hurdles are in place between GVEA and each of the other utilities to ensure that GVEA commits its own generation to serve its own needs and only its own needs, while dispatch hurdles are in place to restrict non-firm transactions to those with high profit margins. 8.1.13 Case NS4 This case has none of the northern or southern upgrades listed above. It is essentially the same transmission system as exists today, except that the transmission connecting MEA’s Eklutna diesels to the system is reorganized, and a couple of planned transmission lines serving load in the central part of the system are included. None of these additions materially affects the system dispatch or production cost. Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 46 In this case, the Railbelt system operates as five separate companies, each providing for its own needs. This is accomplished by placing Commitment price hurdles between each pair of companies to ensure that each commits its own generation to serve its own needs and only its own needs. Dispatch hurdles are also in place between each pair of companies to restrict non- firm transactions to those with high profit margins. The non-firm Kenai North interface limit is 75 MW, (but subject to variation depending on Nikiski and Cooper generation. Bradley Lake is modeled as 2 x 45 MW generating units plus additional spinning reserve capability of 10 MW. And, the Douglas-Healy interface is limited to a non-firm 75 MW. 8.1.14 Total Railbelt Results The 2020 annual system production costs in each of these nine cases is displayed in Table 8-1 below. The sensitivity analysis results are displayed in Appendix E of this report. Table 8-1 Production Cost Results 2020 Production Cost (millions) NS0 $ 391.2 S1 $ 394.4 S2 $ 401.2 S3 $ 449.2 S4 $ 453.1 N1 $ 413.9 N2 $ 494.1 N3 $ 495.5 NS4 $ 531.1 Case The difference between the production costs in the NS4 and NS0 cases shows that the complete set of both northern and southern upgrades would reduce the Railbelt system production costs by about $140 million/year. The difference between the NS4 and N3 cases is that the N3 case has all of the southern upgrades and none of the northern, while NS4 has no upgrades. Then, the $35.6 million difference between NS4 & N3 production costs indicates that if only the southern upgrades are performed the production cost savings would be about $35.6 M /year. Similarly, the difference between the NS4 and S4 cases is that the S4 case has all of the northern upgrades and none of the southern, while NS4 has no upgrades. Then, the $78.1 million difference between NS4 & S4 production costs indicates that if only the northern upgrades are performed, the production cost savings would be about $78.1 M/year. Then, if both the northern and southern upgrades are performed, there is a further saving of $26.2 million, in addition to the individual savings from the northern and southern upgrades. This $26.2 million joint saving could be split between the southern and northern upgrades such that a total of $48.7 M/year savings could be attributed to the southern upgrades, with $91.2 M/year being attributed to the northern upgrades. Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 47 The impact of each of the nine transmission upgrade cases on the production costs of each individual utility system depends very much on how well the planned generation resources of that utility match the needs of that utility. In evaluating the individual projects it can be seen that case S4-S3 provides the value of the second Bradley-Soldotna direct line at $3.833 M/year. The improvements of the HVDC line and the improvements to the 115 kV Quartz Creek – University line can be evaluated individually or collectively, but not a direct comparison against each other. For instance, the addition of the Quartz Creek – University 230 kV upgrade reduces production costs by $47.99/year (S3-S2). The HVDC addition provides a benefit of $54.85 (S3- S1) or the combination of both the 230 kV upgrade and the HVDC line provide a total benefit of $58.04M/year (S3-NS0). The allocation of benefits in this instance becomes extremely difficult since the benefits attributed to each individual project exceed the benefits of the projects as a whole and each is including 100% of the North-South joint benefit. For purposes of this study, the benefits attributed to each project could be pro-rated to equal the total of the benefits if both projects were constructed and only 50% of the joint North-South benefit is included, that is, to equal ($58.04 - $13.1) M/year. The HVDC tie would have allocated annual benefits of $23.97 M / year and the 230 kV upgrade would be allocated benefits of $20.97 M/year. The Northern improvements can be analyzed in a similar manner. The Lake Loraine – Douglas improvements provide substantial reliability improvements and are required in order to realize any production cost benefits resulting from improvements between Douglas and Fairbanks. However, the value of these projects in production cost savings without the other northern improvements is limited and can be estimated by the difference between case N2 and N3 or $1.5 M/year. The improvements between Douglas and Healy, including the Lorraine-Douglas line section can be estimated by taking the difference between cases N1 and N3 or $81.631 M/year, removing the North-South joint benefit of $26.2 M/year, which is captured in this number, then adding back the portion ($13.1 M/year) attributed to the northern upgrades because it is the Lorraine – Healy upgrade that brings GVEA into the single pool dispatch. That results in $68.53 M/year being attributed to the Lorraine – Healy upgrade. The improvements between Healy and Fairbanks can be estimated by the difference between case N1 and case NSO or $22.68 M/year 8.2 Capacity Deferral Capacity deferral refers to the ability to defer the construction of new generation capacity in one utility area by using excess capacity in another utility’s area. Currently, the lack of transmission infrastructure precludes the use of extensive capacity sharing among utilities. With the recent construction of new generation facilities in the Railbelt, there does not appear to be a need for capacity expansion or replacement in the next 10-15 years. Beyond that time frame, there appears to be a possibility of substantial capacity sharing between the Kenai, Anchorage and Fairbanks areas. However, the estimates for this capacity deferral are not firm or based on substantial planning. We have therefore decided to note the potential for capacity deferral as a benefit, but assign a $0 value to the benefit at this time. 8.3 Reservoir Optimization Studies indicate that constraints on Bradley Lake capacity usage will not result in a loss of energy from the project, but will result in the use of project energy in a non-optimized manner. Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 48 The transmission system also results in increased losses from Bradley Lake energy before it is delivered to the Southcentral and Northern utilities. The constraints on the project will result in a flatter use of the Bradley energy over the course of any one month or year. The inability to react to high inflow periods to manage the reservoir level with high energy output will likely lead to a lower average lake elevation as a means to mitigate the risk of spilling energy from the project. Assuming only a 10’ difference in lower elevation, the energy production from Bradley Lake will be reduced by approximately 1% or 3,300 MWH/year. Production cost simulations indicate that the value of this energy ranges from $81-$250/MWh. Assuming a conservative value of $125/MWh, this results in an annual loss of $412,500 or $7.56 M NPV for the life of the project. 8.4 Unserved Energy Unserved energy is a means of establishing the economic cost of an electrical outage to the consumers of a utility. Unserved energy is the traditional method used for the justification of projects that provide an increase in reliability but do not necessarily result in lower production or operating costs. The value of unserved energy varies widely depending upon the time of year, type of customer and the length and frequency of the outages. Industry accepted values of unserved energy range from $800/kWh to $7,500/kWh with most values centered around $3,000/kWh. A complete statistical analysis for transmission and generation outages for all of the utilities was not completed, however a brief review of the outages indicate that there is a wide variation in customer outages from year-to-year in the Railbelt. This variation is most likely due to weather conditions and variations in unit reliability. The analysis is also complicated by the changing generation structure of the Railbelt. The move to smaller, light machines has two consequences to customer reliability, a lower system inertia and a lower requirement for spinning reserves. The combination of these changes make it difficult to directly compare historical generation related outages with future operating conditions. To estimate the number of unit trips in 2020, the number of turbine trips and operating turbine generators from 2009 was used as the base case. The number of operating turbine generators in 2009 was 18, for both summer and winter. The number of turbine trips in 2009 was 27. The future amount of turbine generators that will be operating in 2020 is 16 and 18, for summer and winter, respectively (Southcentral Transmission Study). Since the number of operating turbine generators in 2020 will be about the same as in 2009, we assume the same incident of unit tripping per turbine will exist in 2020 that existed in 2009. Due to the change in inertia and spinning reserve, each turbine trip in the future system has a very high likelihood of causing an outage due to under frequency load shedding. Assuming an average 30 minute duration for each stage 1 load shed event, generation related outages are assumed to result in 13.5 hours of consumer outages with an average value of 65 MW, or $2.63M/year in excess energy attributable to generation related outages. Transmission related outages have extreme variations in the Railbelt, with major transmission lines experiencing no outages or in excess of 20 outages per year. The changing nature of the Railbelt system will also change the impact that transmission outages have on the Railbelt consumers. For instance, due to import conditions over the single Kenai-Anchorage transmission system, although historic outages most likely did not result in loadshed events, future line outages have a high probability of creating customer outages due to under frequency load shed conditions. Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 49 Assuming an average outage rate of 11 transmission outages per year (less than one outage per 60 miles of transmission line) with an average duration of 30 minutes, the estimated value of unserved energy due to transmission related outages is 5.5 hours with an average value of 55 MW or $0.91M/year. The total NPV of the value of unserved energy is estimated to be $16,688,000. 8.5 Excess Energy Periodically, Bradley has excess energy that must be used in order to avoid losing energy over the spillway. In these conditions, Bradley has historically been operated between 90 MW and 115 MW and each participant is allocated a proportional share of the excess energy. Plant dispatch records from 2002-2010 were correlated with lake level to determine the amount of energy the participants have been forced to take in order to avoid losing energy over the spillway. There was an expected wide variation in energy levels, with the high value in 2002 of 61,118 MWh to 0 MWh in 2004, 2005, 2007, 2008, and 2010. The average for the nine years records available was 11,462 MWh. Assuming an average value of $125/MWh for the spilled energy, the average annual excess energy is estimated to be $1,433,000/year with a NPV of $26,300,000. 8.6 Reduced Regulation In the new Railbelt generation and transmission configuration using distributed power plants, each utility will be responsible for providing its own regulation and reserve requirements. The result is that the total amount of regulation carried in the Railbelt will increase since each utility will need to cover the regulation requirements of its own, relatively small load as opposed to taking advantage of the load diversity which exists between the Railbelt load centers. This increase regulation requirement will result in increased production costs for each of the utilities. When operated as a common pool, the amount of regulation can be reduced to meet the requirements of the total pool. These reduced regulation requirements are in addition to the regulation requirements captured in the power production costing simulations. The estimated reduction in regulation requirements is expected to be in excess of 10 MW per hour for the Railbelt as a whole. In addition to the regulation requirements for the system load, renewable resources such as Fire Island and Eva Creek require separate regulation resources to control the variability of the wind resource. Under a limited transmission system, each utility is required to provide for regulation of its wind resources individually rather than taking advantage of the diversity of the wind resources to create a much lower regulating requirement. The reduced regulation requirement for the wind resource is expected to be reduced by an additional 10-15 MW over the average hourly period. Production cost simulations indicate the reduced regulation requirement can lower power production costs by $141.5 M/year over the base case or an increase in savings of $1.6 M/year or $24.6 M over the life of the project. 8.7 Reduced Spinning reserve costs The addition of a 25 MW BESS in the Anchorage area to provide contingency reserves for the loss of the AC Kenai-Anchorage transmission line could also be used to reduce the requirement for on-line spinning reserves in the Railbelt system. Assuming that 75% of the BESS would be available for spinning reserves and 25% would be used for regulation/charging would reduce Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 50 production costs by approximately $206M/year in the Railbelt or $3,778M over the life of the project. 8.8 Renewable Resource Integration In its current configuration, the Railbelt system, is essentially at its limit to accept variable renewable resources such as wind and solar generation without substantial costs. The limited ability to provide regulation and reserves across the transmission system requires each utility to provide reserves and regulation to cover each resource within its boundary. Increased transmission between utility areas and the operation of the system as a common pool would allow the geographic diversity of variable generation to be accounted for in power production regulation and reserve scheduling. This would in effect, increase the amount of variable generation the system could support without increasing its cost or decreasing its reliability. It is difficult to quantify or assess the ability to take an increase amount of renewables on the Railbelt system, however without increased transmission infrastructure, it is doubtful that the Railbelt could increase its variable generation capacity above current levels. 8.9 Gas Sensitivities – Fairbanks LNG The Fairbanks utilities and others are currently evaluating the feasibility of importing Liquefied Natural Gas to the Fairbanks area for heating and electrical energy production. The availability of gas in the Fairbanks area and in particular at GVEA’s North Pole power plant would reduce the potential sales from southern utilities to GVEA and thereby reducing the benefits of the transmission system. If LNG is available at the North Pole power plant, the estimated savings of the transmission is $75M/year or a reduction of $64.1M/year, assuming LNG is available at $3.5/MCF above Cook Inlet Gas prices. The NPV of the savings is $1,175M. 8.10 Load Sensitivities The possibility of a large industrial load in the GVEA area was evaluated under both existing and future fuel scenarios. Adding a 100 MW load in the GVEA area without natural gas results in production costs savings of $309 M/year. Adding a 100 MW load in the GVEA area with natural gas available at North Pole Combined cycle results in saving of $244.8 M/ year. The possibility of GVEA losing a large industrial load was also evaluated with and without the availability of LNG in the Fairbanks area. If a 44 MW load is removed from the GVEA service area and LNG is not available in Fairbanks, the production cost savings is estimated at $117.7 M/year. If a 44 MW load is removed from the GVEA service area and LNG is available in Fairbanks, the production cost savings is reduced to $60.6 M/year. 8.11 Gas Price Sensitivities The production cost cases were based on the gas and fuel pricing forecast developed for the Watana project evaluation. Since that study Hilcorp has filed a Consent Decree Pricing schedule that provides gas cost through 2018. These new costs were evaluated to determine the impact changing gas prices may have on the production costs savings determined in the original study. Using the 2018 gas prices in the Hilcorp filing, the production cost savings was $138.7M/year. Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 51 8.12 Spinning Reserve Determination In the original simulations, utilities with duct firing were allowed to claim the capacity of the duct firing to meet their spinning reserve obligation but were not required to declare the capacity of the duct firing as part of the largest committed unit. A sensitivity was requested to evaluate the impact of a utility not being allowed to utilize duct firing to meet their spinning reserve obligation unless the capacity of the duct firing was also included in the declaration of the unit capacity. The change in duct firing spinning reserve increased savings to $148.5M/year, approximately $9.2M/year over the base case. Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 52 9 Pre-Watana: Conclusions The proposed transmission plan results in a transmission system for the Railbelt utilities that allows transfer of power between the different regions of the Railbelt to minimize costs to the Railbelt utilities and consumers served by these utilities. The plan balances transmission projects with affordable costs resulting in a transmission plan that provides an extremely positive benefit to cost ratio. Although the investment required to complete the plan is substantial, when completed, its benefits far exceed its costs and results in significant savings to the individual consumers in the Railbelt. In addition to the benefits to the existing consumers, the plan allows for future load growth within the Railbelt and also allows for a large energy project such as Watana to be incorporated into the Railbelt system. The benefits are fairly immune to sensitivities evaluated from the base case, with the worst case sensitivity being the loss of a 44 MW load in the GVEA system coupled with the availability of LNG in the northern system. However, even in this scenario, production cost savings are estimated at $60.6M/ year. Capitalization of spinning reserve sharing and reduced regulation would reduce the impact of this decrease by increasing savings an additional $30-50 M/year. It is important to note that the benefits of the proposed projects are savings related to a reduction in future cost increases as opposed to an increase in revenues. Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 53 10 Pre-Watana Prioritization: Executive Summary Electric Power Systems (EPS) has completed an analysis to make recommendations for the future transmission system in the Railbelt. The need for a new transmission plan is driven by changes in the Railbelt generation and transmission system since the completion of the 2010 Regional Integrated Resource Plan (RIRP) administered by the Alaska Energy Authority (AEA). The project identification analysis is included in the prior section of this report. This analysis and report covers the recommended prioritization and ranking of projects for construction and funding. Table 10-1 summarizes the projects and associated production cost benefits identified in the previous study. In addition to these production cost benefits, the study identified non-production cost benefits that will increase the total benefits of each project, and for the projects as a whole. Table 10-1 Project Summary Cost and Benefits This report outlines the recommended construction and implementation sequence of projects to the greatest extent possible. Portions of the final sequence may be based on non-deterministic factors such as funding availability, geographic location, etc. Although these factors are considered, they are not drivers for the recommended sequence. The projects that comprise the Bradley Constraints Area (Table 10-1) encompass a group of projects that mitigate the constraints on Kenai area hydro projects such as Bradley Lake and Cooper Lake. These projects can be completed in a relatively short period of time, and provide a good benefit/cost ratio. These projects also have the opportunity to bring benefits forward in time, with relatively short on-line projects, such as the HVDC Intertie, and Anchorage Area BESS projects. Due to their relatively short design and construction period, and the ability to incrementally capture benefits as the projects are completed, these projects were evaluated as the highest overall priority. The Northern area projects provide excellent benefits, but require longer planning and construction periods. In addition, there are no incremental benefits realized until all of the projects are completed and operational. Although the benefit/cost ratio is very high for these projects, the longer-term completion period and the lack of incremental benefits as the project stages are completed result in these projects being considered slightly lower than the Bradley constraint projects. The Southcentral area projects are critical to the implementation of both the Northern and Southern projects, and are critical to new Southcentral area generation, particularly at AML&P and MEA. These are short-duration projects ready for engineering design and construction. In assigning the priorities for the projects, each was divided into several sub-components: permitting, design, and construction. Prioritization and sequencing were completed on the component level of the projects, instead of for the overall project. Prioritizing at the component level allows projects with high-priorities, but long completion times, to start critical permitting and design processes earlier in the process, while optimizing the costs and benefits for the overall Bradley Constraints 388.2$ 893.1$ 2.3 Flexible Gas Storage 18.2$ Southcentral / Overall 20.4$ 482.3$ 23.7 Northern System 494.7$ 1,672.5$ 3.4 Total 921.4$ 3,047.9$ 3.3 Area Total Costs (Millions) Summary Benefit (Millions) Benefit / Cost Ratio Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 54 plan. It was assumed that several projects would be undertaken concurrently, with different projects in permitting, design and construction phases during the same period. While there may be a single project description for a project, in most cases each project contains several smaller projects forming a larger project. For instance, the Bradley-Soldotna transmission line is made up of substation changes at Bradley Lake and Soldotna, as well as the transmission line between the two stations. Each of these smaller divisions is prioritized within the larger project to ensure the project’s completion is coordinated, and that overall costs and benefits are optimized. The prioritization assumed a fifteen-year construction period, during which all of the projects would be permitted, designed, and constructed. Within this period, it was assumed that year one would be used to initiate design and permitting, and years 14-15 would be used to complete construction of the remaining projects. The total dollars required in years 2-13 was attempted to be levelized to the greatest extent possible for all activities (permitting, design, construction). The desire to maintain fairly constant dollar expenditures in years 2-13 had significant impacts on the prioritization and recommended project sequence, however even with the restructuring of the projects to levelize expenditures, there are several high dollar outlay years due to large projects such as the HVDC Intertie, the BESS, and the Lorraine SVC. These cannot be spread over several years of construction. A summary of the recommended project sequence is outlined in Table 10-2: Table 10-2 Recommended Project Sequence The annual and cumulative cash flow for the recommended sequence is shown on Figure 10-1 Estimated Yearly and Cumulative Expenditures (USD) below. Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 55 Figure 10-1 Estimated Yearly and Cumulative Expenditures (USD) 11 Pre-Watana Prioritization: Process Each major project was broken into appropriate smaller projects that collectively comprise the overall scope of the larger project. Each of the smaller projects was broken into required permitting, design, and construction tasks with estimated completion times and budgets before prioritization. Prioritizing the components of each project allowed some projects to start long-duration activities, such as permitting as a priority project, while maintaining the construction of the project as a lower priority. In instances where the project would likely be a design/build type project, such as the Teeland SVC, the project was not subdivided into separate design and build sections. For projects that included the design and construction of long transmission lines, the projects were divided into roughly the same level of effort for each section of the project. Since the preliminary design has not been authorized for any projects, each section was assume to require equal effort. The breakdown of each major section and its subcomponents are shown in Table 11-1. Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 56 Table 11-1 Project Sections and Subcomponents used for Analysis Priority Group Project Description Phase Duration (months) Cost 1 Kenai 100 MW HVDC Intertie Permitting 24-36 $ 1,278,000 1 Kenai 100 MW HVDC Intertie Engineering 7 $ 19,170,000 1 Kenai 100 MW HVDC Intertie Construction 36 $ 164,862,000 1 Kenai Anchorage area battery Design 8 $ 3,020,000 1 Kenai Anchorage area battery Construction 30 $ 27,180,000 2 Kenai Convert line for 230 kV operation - I Design 3 $ 1,916,667 2 Kenai Convert line for 230 kV operation - I Construction 6 $ 17,250,000 3 Kenai Convert line for 230 kV operation - II Design 3 $ 1,916,667 3 Kenai Convert line for 230 kV operation - II Construction 6 $ 17,250,000 4 Kenai Convert line for 230 kV operation - III Design 3 $ 1,916,667 4 Kenai Convert line for 230 kV operation - III Construction 6 $ 17,250,000 3 Kenai Convert substations for 230 kV operation - I Design 6 $ 2,249,000 4 Kenai Convert substations for 230 kV operation - I Construction 12 $ 15,055,000 4 Kenai Convert substations for 230 kV operation - I Design 6 $ 2,249,000 4 Kenai Convert substations for 230 kV operation - I Construction 12 $ 15,055,000 6 Kenai Quartz Creek modify 115kV station Design 9 $ 135,380 6 Kenai Quartz Creek modify 115kV station Construction 15 $ 1,218,422 5 Kenai Upgrade QC-DC line to Rail conductor Design 4 $ 1,050,000 5 Kenai Upgrade QC-DC line to Rail conductor Construction - I 6 $ 12,600,000 5 Kenai Soldotna 115kV station - Ring bus Design 15 $ 768,441 5 Kenai Soldotna 115kV station - Ring bus Construction 24 $ 6,915,965 5 Kenai Add new bay/115kV cable to Bradley GIS Design 12 $ 286,514 5 Kenai Add new bay/115kV cable to Bradley GIS Construction 15 $ 2,578,627 5 Kenai 115 kV Line Bradley to Soldotna Permitting 30 $ 550,000 5 Kenai 115 kV Line Bradley to Soldotna Design 12 $ 5,500,000 5 Kenai 115 kV Line Bradley to Soldotna Construction 18 $ 48,950,000 2 Kenai Gas storage at local plant design 6 $ 1,200,000 2 Kenai Gas storage at local plant construction 8 $ 17,000,000 1 SouthCentral 115 kV Substation Permitting 24 $ 571,179 1 SouthCentral 115 kV Substation Design 5 $ 925,324 1 SouthCentral 115 kV Substation construction 8 $ 9,182,065 3 SouthCentral 115 kV Substation Design 4 $ 881,122 3 SouthCentral 115 kV Substation Construction 6 $ 8,811,218 4 SouthCentral 230 kV Substation Design 6 $ 1,760,170 4 SouthCentral 230 kV substation Construction 10 $ 20,225,730 5 SouthCentral Lorraine SVC Design/Construction 18 $ 19,224,000 Bernice Lake-Beluga HVDC 25 MW/14 MWh BESS University-Dave’s 230 kV Bradley - Soldotna 115 kV Line 262 MWh Flexible Gas Storage Fossil Creek Substation Eklutna Substation Loraine Substation Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 57 Priority Group Project Description Phase Duration (months) Cost 7 Northern Communications Upgrade Design 48-60 $ 3,000,000 7 Northern Communications Upgrade Construction 36-48 $ 12,000,000 6 Northern 230 kV Douglas Substation Design 6 $ 2,914,189 6 Northern 230 kV Douglas Substation Construction 14 $ 29,141,892 6 Northern 230 kV Double Circuit Permitting 6 $ 150,000 6 Northern 230 kV Double Circuit Design 8 $ 6,242,235 6 Northern 230 kV Double Circuit Construction 18 $ 49,688,190 6 Northern 230 kV Gold Creek Substation Design 6 $ 1,575,652 6 Northern 230 kV Gold Creek Substation Construction 18 $ 16,356,520 1 Northern 230 kV T-Line - Doug - Healy Permitting 48-72 $ 1,881,000 7 Northern 230 kV T-Line - Doug - Gold Ck Design - I 15 $ 4,702,500 7 Northern 230 kV T-Line - Doug - Gold Ck Design - II 15 $ 4,702,500 7 Northern 230 kV T-Line - Doug - Gold Ck Construction 18 $ 41,852,250 7 Northern 230 kV T-Line - Doug - Gold Ck Construction 18 $ 41,852,250 7 Northern 230 kV T-Line - Gold Vk - Healy Design 15 $ 4,702,500 7 Northern 230 kV T-Line - Gold Vk - Healy Design 15 $ 4,702,500 7 Northern 230 kV T-Line - Gold Vk - Healy Construction 18 $ 41,852,250 7 Northern 230 kV T-Line - Gold Vk - Healy Construction 18 $ 41,852,250 7 Northern Healy 230kV/138 kV Station Permitting 24 $ 1,454,050 7 Northern Healy 230kV/138 kV Station Design 8 $ 3,302,580 7 Northern Healy 230kV/138 kV Station Construction 18 $ 32,771,750 7 Northern 230 kV Conversion Gold Hill - Healy Permitting 24 $ 103,153 7 Northern 230 kV Conversion Gold Hill - Healy Design 24 $ 1,031,527 7 Northern 230 kV Conversion Gold Hill - Healy Construction 18 $ 28,195,065 7 Northern 230 kV Conversion Gold Hill - Healy Construction 18 $ 28,195,065 7 Northern 230 kV Conversion Gold Hill - Healy Construction 18 $ 28,195,065 7 Northern Healy-Gold Hill Subs (Clear, Nenana, Ester, Gold Hill) Design 9 $ 1,369,414 7 Northern Healy-Gold Hill Subs (Clear, Nenana, Ester, Gold Hill) Construction 24 $ 12,324,726 7 Northern Northern Intertie Subs (Eva Creek, Wilson) Design 8 $ 771,600 7 Northern Northern Intertie Subs (Eva Creek, Wilson) Construction 18 $ 6,592,870 Healy-Gold Hill 230 kV T-Line Northern Intertie Conversion Douglas-Lorraine 230 kV Double Circuit Line Communications Upgrade Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 58 12 Pre-Watana Prioritization: Conclusions The recommended sequence for the design and construction of the projects is a mix of attempting to bring the largest portion of benefits forward in time, while maintaining a fairly level annual budget throughout the plan. The recommended plan results in Railbelt utilities realizing substantial benefits approximately three years after the plan’s approval and funding, with a significant jump in benefits 1-2 years following that with the completion of the HVDC transmission line. There are numerous strategies and possibilities for the plan, for instance construction of the major 230 kV and 115 kV transmission lines could be extended over a longer period. Although it is possible that the plan could be shortened, this should be analyzed for impacts to the Alaska labor market, and for associated cost impacts and project financing. A detailed plan of our recommended project sequence is included in Appendix B. Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 59 13 Post-Watana: Executive Summary EPS has completed analysis for determining the additions required to the recommended Railbelt transmission system following the addition of the Watana hydroelectric project between Healy and Douglas stations on the existing transmission system. The Watana hydro plant was assumed to consist of three 200 MW units for a total plant output of 600 MW. The exact size and number of the units is currently being evaluated by AEA under a separate project. The recommended interconnection point for the Watana plant is the Gold Creek substation due to location, available space for substation equipment, and relevant distance between the Healy and Douglas substations. The transmission studies assume the improvements recommended in the Pre Watana part of this report have been completed prior to the completion of the Watana project. All of the recommended projects are required to support Watana in addition to being recommended in the Pre-Watana transmission plan. The ownership and resolution of the power delivery issues associated with the Watana project are an important assumption in the development of the required transmission system. The amount of capacity and energy available to the northern and southern portions of the Railbelt from Watana have a direct impact on the required transmission system for the project. This study assumed a wide range of power flows that may not applicable in the final power sales agreements for the facility. The study assumed power transfers ranging from 280 MW north into the Fairbanks area to 500 MW flowing south to the Southcentral/Kenai areas. When the ownership, rights and characteristics of the Watana project have been identified, the study should be updated to determine any changes in interconnection requirements for the actual range of power transfers. The basis or starting point to determine the impact of the Watana large hydro addition is the proposed Pre – Watana transmission system presented earlier in this report. The same planning criteria applied to the Pre-Watana studies (4.1 Planning Criteria) was used for the Post-Watana studies. A summary of the total Post – Watana project costs are provided in Table 13-1 below. Table 13-1 Post - Watana System Project Cost Summary Watana Interconnection / Alaska Intertie The recommended Watana interconnection consists of three 230 kV transmission lines from the Watana switchyard to the Gold Creek substation. The lines require protection communications to ensure 4 cycle clearing times from both ends. A new -/+ 150 MVAR SVC is required at Gold Creek Substation to maintain stability during contingencies and to provide dynamic voltage support during the extreme ranges of the Watana power flows. The Healy – Gold Creek – Douglas lines constructed as part of the recommended transmission plan must be converted to 230 kV operation. Alternative Watana connections utilizing two interconnecting transmission Watana Interconnection 318.4$ Southcentral 54.5$ 75 MW Energy Storage 90.6$ Total 463.5$ Area Total Costs (Millions) Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 60 lines were evaluated but were not recommended due to additional equipment and system restrictions outside of the immediate Watana area. A summary of the costs for the required projects for the Watana interconnection are presented in Table 13-2. Table 13-2 Watana Interconnection Project Costs GVEA System No system additions are required in the GVEA area to facilitate energy transfers or improve reliability as a result of the Watana Project. The energy transfers can be supported with the previously recommended improvements in the Pre – Watana transmission plan (7 Pre-Watana: Improvements to the Northern Railbelt Transmission). Southcentral The Douglas – Teeland line should be converted to operate at 115 kV, removing the 100 MVA 138 kV/115 kV transformer at Teeland, eliminating the possibility of overloading it during heavy Watana transfers to the south. This will require a 230/115 kV transformer at Douglas and the conversion of the station at Teeland for the 115 kV line. The SVC at Lorraine should be increased in size from -40/+25 MVAR capability to -75/+50 MVAR. The SVC at Teeland should remain in service using the existing 230/138 kV transformer. For heavy Watana transfers to the south, line outages south of Douglas substation in the Southcentral Railbelt can create overload conditions during the summer peak load. Increasing power generation following the line outage can relieve the overload conditions and eliminate the need for additional transmission system additions. The re-dispatch of generation required to alleviate the overload conditions is available throughout the Southcentral system. A summary of the costs for the required projects for the Southcentral are presented in Table 13-3. Table 13-3 Southcentral Project Costs Kenai No system additions are required on the Kenai to facilitate energy transfers or improve reliability as a result of the Watana Project. Hydro-hydro coordination between the Bradley Lake and Cooper Lake hydro units and Watana can be supported with the previously recommended improvements in the Pre - Watana transmission plan (5 Pre-Watana: Improvements to the Kenai – Anchorage Transmission). Watana 230 kV substation 32.1$ Watana - Gold Creek 230 kV lines 190.1$ Gold Creek -150 / + 150 MVAR SVC 90.0$ Healy - Gold Creek - Douglas 230 kV operation 6.3$ Total 318.4$ Project Total Costs (Millions) Lorraine SVC upgrade to -75 / +50 MVAR 45.0$ Douglas - Teeland 115 kV operation 7.0$ Teeland 10 MVAr Capacitors 2.5$ Total 54.5$ Project Total Costs (Millions) Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 61 Energy Storage A unit trip of a 200 MW Watana generator triggers a severe under frequency event that would be unacceptable to the Railbelt utilities and consumers. A total of 100 MW of Energy Storage (ES) is required to mitigate the impact of the unit trip to only Stage 1 of the under frequency load shed scheme. Twenty-five (25) MW of the ES is assumed to be in service as part of the Railbelt transmission improvements required prior to Watana’s operation. The additional 75 MW of ES is recommended to be spread throughout the RailbeIt. The primary purpose of the ES is to mitigate the impact of a Watana unit trip, however the ES can provide additional support to the Railbelt. Thirty (30) MW of the ES should be located in the Fairbanks system near the North Pole substation. This ES location can provide the ability to start and stop large motors associated with possible future mine loads and provide voltage and frequency support for the GVEA system. Twenty (20) MW should be located on the Kenai near Soldotna. The Soldotna ES can provide energy to the Kenai system following the loss of one of the two Kenai – Anchorage transmission lines and will remove generation constraints on the Kenai. The remaining 25 MW of ES should be located in Anchorage, preferable near ITSS, University, Plant 2, or adjacent to the previously installed 25 MW BESS. The Anchorage area BESS increases Kenai – Anchorage transfer limits, allowing full hydro-hydro coordination. It is important to note that the ES support is required for a brief amount of time (tens of seconds) and the energy requirement of the ES in MW-hr can be less than the values stated in MW. It is anticipated that the final solution will include a mix of battery and flywheel technologies, with flywheel technologies providing the bulk of the required energy delivery to compensate for the loss of the large hydro unit. The final mix between flywheel and battery technologies will be determined in the next phase of the project. The mix in ES technologies will be utilized to address transmission deficiencies where possible in addition to providing energy for the system as a whole for the loss of a large Watana unit. The proposed ES system will be a very large system in terms of world-wide installations. The ES will be a technical challenge with the use of both flywheel and battery technologies. However, in the time frame of the study, it is expected that such storage systems will be more common place due to the dependence of renewable energy integration on such systems and the developing market and production. A summary of the costs for the required projects for ES are presented in Table 13-4. The costs represent a battery technology with similar specifications as the initial Anchorage 25 MW BESS. Table 13-4 Energy Storage Project Costs GVEA 30 MW ES 35.1$ Anchorage 25 MW ES 30.2$ Kenai 20 MW ES 25.3$ Total 90.6$ Total Costs (Millions)Project Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 62 Figure 13-1 Northern Post – Watana Proposed Transmission System Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 63 Figure 13-2 Kenai and Southcentral Post – Watana Proposed Transmission System Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 64 14 Post-Watana: Overall Study Objectives EPS has completed the Post – Watana study for the Alaska Energy Authority. The scope of the study was to evaluate the transmission required in the Railbelt after the construction of the Watana large hydro plant. The plant will consist of three 200 MW generators for a total plant output of 600 MW. The proposed transmission system from the Alaska Railbelt Transmission Study was used as the initial transmission configuration. The study focused on determining the following: - Required configuration of the Watana transmission line interconnection - Required upgrades / additions to the Railbelt transmission system - Required Energy Storage (ES) to protect against the loss of a 200 MW Watana unit The study used the three seasonal power flow cases, summer valley, summer peak, and winter peak, using the IOC approved 2020 base cases, and version 32.1.0 of Power Systems Simulator Engineer (“PSS/E”). Power flow and transient contingency simulation methods were used to perform the analysis. 15 Post-Watana: Watana Plant Modeling The Watana power plant characteristics have not been finalized. The study assumes the plant consists of three Frances type turbines. The Watana units were modeled with a maximum power output of 200 MW, and a reactive capability of -82 to 80.6 MVAR, with an MVA rating of 220 MVA. The data is also listed in Table 15-1. Table 15-1 Watana power flow modeling specifics (each) VSched (pu)1.04 Pmax (MW)200 Pmin (MW)0 Qmax  (Mvar)80.6 Qmin (Mvar)‐82.0 Mbase  (MVA)220 R Source  (pu)0 X Source  (pu)0.30 A GENSAL model was used to model the Watana generator and an EXST1 model was used to model the exciter. The parameters for these models were taken after the John Day hydro units in the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) territory. It is assumed that the hydro generators have inertia of 3.006 each. Governor modeling of the Watana hydro units is important, as governor response is a major part in determining overall system response during a load rejection event. The governor utilizes an IEEEG3 model. The parameters for the model are similar to the John Day hydro units and are shown in Table 15-2. The block diagram for the IEEEG3 governor (taken from the PSS/E documentation), is shown in Figure 15-1. Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 65 Table 15-2 Susitna turbine governor modeling specifics, IEEEG3 TG, (> 0), Gate  Servomotor Time  Constant 0.2 TP, (> 0), Pilot Value Time  Constant 0.2 UO  Opening Gate  Rate  Limit 0.12 UC  Closing Gate  Rate  Limit (< 0.)‐0.12 PMAX Maximum  Gate  Position 1 PMIN Minimum  Gate  Position 0 sigma, Permanent Speed Droop  Coefficient 0.05 delta, Transient Speed Droop Coefficient 0.4 TR, (> 0) 5 TW (> 0), Water Starting Time 1 a11 (> 0) 0.5 a13 1 a21 1.4 a23 (> 0) 0.95 Figure 15-1 IEEEG3 Block Diagram It is important to note that while the Watana units were modeled similar to the John Day units, the data was adjusted to more accurately represent what would be installed at Watana. 16 Post-Watana: Watana Interconnect / Alaska Intertie The addition of the Watana plant to the Railbelt system represents a total of 600 MW of new generation between Anchorage and Healy. This plant can supply a significant portion of the Railbelt generation during all load conditions. The distribution of the Watana power and energy has not been determined, however all power and energy from the project must be transmitted to the Alaska Intertie before being distributed to either northern or southern users. Gold Creek Substation was chosen as the point of interconnection for the Watana plant in these studies due to its proximity to Watana, its location on the Alaska intertie and the electrical characteristics of the interconnection point. The lines from Healy – Gold Creek and Gold Creek – Douglas were analyzed at 138 kV operation, resulting in unstable system response during several contingencies. Operating the lines from Healy – Gold Creek and Gold Creek – Douglas at 230 kV is required with the addition of the Watana large hydro project to avoid instability for several line fault conditions. A single 230 kV transmission line between Watana and Gold Creek would be sufficient during steady state conditions, but a contingency on the line would result in severe under frequency events due to the loss of energy from the entire Watana plant. Therefore, additional transmission lines are required to provide transient security as opposed to steady-state security. Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 66 The transmission requirements between Watana and Gold Creek stations were analyzed with both two and three 230 kV lines. Previous studies have assumed two circuits would terminate at Gold Creek and the third circuit would terminate near Cantwell. From a transmission stability / power flow point of view, there is minimal difference between the two routing options. The transmission configuration between Gold Creek and Douglas was also analyzed with either two or three 230 kV lines. The impact of the transmission configuration with the rest of the Railbelt system and required SVC support are shown below in Table 16-1. The two transmission lines between Healy and Gold Creek are operated at 230 kV for the transmission configuration analysis. Table 16-1 Watana Interconnect / Alaska Intertie Configuration Analysis Base 2 2 ‐75 / +50 ‐200 /  +200 Requires GVEA  ‐ Fairbanks upgrade to 230 kV 13 2‐75 / +50 ‐150 /  +150 Reduced Gold  Creek SVC size 23 3‐75 / +50 ‐Elimination of SVC at Gold  Creek Trans   Config Number of Lines SVC Size  (MVAR) Railbelt System ImpactWatana ‐  Gold   Creek Gold   Creek ‐  Douglas Lorraine Gold   Creek 2 Lines Watana – Gold Creek, 2 Lines Gold Creek – Douglas (Base) Utilizing two transmission lines between Watana – Gold Creek and two transmission lines between Gold Creek – Douglas (base) requires the transmission lines between GVEA (at Healy) and Fairbanks (at Gold Hill / Wilson) to be rebuilt and /or converted to 230 kV operation in order for the Railbelt to remain stable during contingencies or to reduce the power import into the GVEA system. This transmission configuration would also require a -200 / +200 MVAR SVC to be built at Gold Creek to maintain stability during contingencies. 3 Lines Watana – Gold Creek, 2 Lines Gold Creek – Douglas (Config 1) Installing a third transmission line between Watana – Gold Creek (config 1) results in a reduction in SVC requirement at Gold Creek from -200 / +200 MVAR to -150 / +150 MVAR. This transmission configuration also allows for the lines from Healy to Fairbanks to be operated at 138 kV (should they not be converted prior to the operation of Watana). 3 Lines Watana – Gold Creek, 3 Lines Gold Creek – Douglas (Config 2) A transmission configuration of three 230 kV lines between Watana – Gold Creek and three 230 kV lines from Gold Creek – Douglas (config 2) eliminates the requirement of the SVC at Gold Creek. This configuration provides the most robust system alternative, but is also the most costly option. Transmission Configuration Conclusions Based on the results, the base transmission configuration with only two transmission lines between Watana – Gold Creek is not preferred due to the large SVC size required at Gold Creek and the requirement of the GVEA system to be upgraded to 230 kV operation. The large Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 67 SVC represents a significant single contingency risk, with the operation of the Railbelt system dependent upon its availability. A third transmission line between Watana – Gold Creek is the preferred interconnection configuration as the required SVC at Gold Creek is reduced from the base case along with increased operational flexibility in the GVEA system. A Power System Stabilizer (PSS) should be installed on all Watana units. The stabilizers increase the stability of the system and allow for a reduction in the required SVC size at Gold Creek. PSS’s are available on most all modern day exciter / automatic voltage regulator control packages. The exact make and model of the stabilizers cannot be specified without final design data for the Watana units. An IEEE 421.5 2005 PSS2B Dual-Input Stabilizer model (similar to the Bradley Lake stabilizer) was used in the analysis. A third transmission line between Gold Creek and Douglas stations eliminates the need for the SVC at Gold Creek, though with the additional expense of another line between Gold Creek – Douglas increases the capital costs by approximately $40 M. The proposed transmission configurations for the Watana interconnect and the Alaska Intertie are listed below:  New Watana 230 kV substation  Three Watana – Gold Creek 230 kV transmission lines, double bundled Rail conductor o 4 cycle clearing for Watana – Douglas 230 kV  New Gold Creek -/+ 150 MVAR SVC  Power System Stabilizers installed on all Watana units  Gold Creek substation operated at 230 kV  Healy – Gold Creek – Douglas lines operated at 230 kV  Teeland – Douglas 138 kV line converted to 115 kV operation 16.1 Watana Unit Trip Analysis The Energy Storage was sized to limit the loss of load to a stage 1 or stage 2 event using unit trip analysis in PSS/E. While it is not believed that a unit trip of Watana would occur very often, it is still a possibility. The largest hydro unit currently on the Railbelt system is the Bradley Lake power plant. A loss of the Bradley Lake unit does not result in a blackout of Homer or any other sub-region. It is expected that a loss of a Watana unit should have a similar minimal impact. New generation dispatches were created to minimize the system spin to create worst case conditions for the unit trip analysis. The generation dispatches are shown in Table 16-2. As stated previously, the actual generation dispatches for Watana will be dependent upon the final power sales agreement between the facility and the purchasing utilities. The assumed dispatches used for this study are intended to stress the limit of the system and may not be possible in the final power sales agreements. Dispatch cases that stress the system less than used in the study will result in less improvements required to the transmission system, including the ES. Plots for the simulation results for the recommended system can be found in Appendix H. Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 68 Table 16-2 Railbelt Dispatch – Unit Trip Analysis Bradley Lake ‐1.3 ‐1.3 ‐1.3 Plant 10 0 15 Plant 20 0 70 SCPP 107 91 142 Cooper Lake 0 14 20 Eklutna Lake 0 29 40 Watana 300 600 600 North Pole 54 50 90 Total  Spin 596 196 214 Total  Load 445 778 1019 Generators Summer  Valley Summer  Peak Winter  Peak The current UFLS system for the Railbelt is shown in Table 16-3. The UFLS system has not been modified from its original purpose of protecting against under frequency events for a heavy frame type gas-turbine based power system to protecting a hydro system with lighter aero derivative machines. The size of the ES may be optimized by modifying the UFLS protection for a hydro based power system. Table 16-3 Railbelt Load Totals and UFLS settings MW % MW % MW % 59.0 1 45.6 10% 73.5 9% 105.5 10% 58.7238.79%60.38%86.38% 58.5 3 94.8 21% 167.7 21% 237.1 23% 58.2 4 39.3 9% 74.1 9% 104.4 10% Frequency  (Hz) UFLS   Stage Summer Valley Summer Peak Winter Peak 450 MW  of Load 786 MW of Load 1035 MW  of  Load The unit trip analysis shows an increase in need for ES support to keep the Under Frequency Load Shed (UFLS) system from activating beyond stage 1 or stage 2 as the system load and therefore unit commitments are reduced from the winter peak load season. The results are shown in Table 16-4. Table 16-4 Watana Unit Size Analysis – BES Sizing Stage  1Stage 2 600 300 200 120 80 600 600 200 100 20 600 600 200 80 0 SV SP WP ES  Size (MW) Case Watana Plant (MW) Capacity Output Trip Freq. Control The dispatch cases developed for this analysis resulted in a dispatch scenario that may not be realistic for system operations or within the power sales agreements for the facility. As such, it may be possible to provide better system performance if the studies were constrained to less Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 69 extreme dispatch scenarios as opposed to the boundary conditions studied using the machine ratings. A total of 100 MW ES is recommended to mitigate the UFLS action to a stage 1 event. The mitigation will limit the UFLS to a Stage 1 event for winter and summer peak load conditions. Summer valley conditions may reach stage 2 UFLS, however the dispatch scenario required to allow a 200 MW unit trip is most likely not practical. To stress the system, a dispatch of one unit at 200 MW with the remaining two units dispatched to 50 MW (300 MW total plant output) was used. In actual practice, it is unlikely the units would have such a large disparity between loading amounts. The location of the ES does not impact the ability of the ES to provide support to the system for the loss of a large Watana unit trip. Other benefits to the system that are beyond the scope of this study could be realized by splitting the total ES system into different areas of the Railbelt and may drive the location of and optimization of the ES. Locating a portion of the ES on the Kenai would allow total hydro-hydro coordination between the hydro resources of the Kenai and the Watana project. The ES would eliminate generation restrictions on the Kenai by providing an energy resource to stabilize the Kenai system following loss of one of the Kenai-Anchorage transmission lines. Stabilization would be provided by the ES until Kenai generation could be dispatched on the system. Studies indicate a minimum of 20 MW ES would be required on the Kenai to provide stabilizing support. Locating a portion of the ES in the GVEA area near the North Pole Station would allow the system to support large motor cycling for existing and future mine or industrial loads without additional Fairbanks area generation or transmission improvements. Siting the remainder of the ES adjacent to the 25 MW ES in the Anchorage area would increase the transfer capability of the Kenai – Anchorage system and eliminate import restrictions into the Anchorage area. Elimination of import restrictions would allow full Kenai hydro-hydro and thermal generation coordination with the Watana project. 17 Post-Watana: GVEA The Pre-Watana transmission recommendations for the GVEA system recommended the lines from Healy – Wilson and Healy – Gold Hill be upgraded to 230 kV. The improved power transfer capability between GVEA and the southern utilities following these improvements allowed considerable benefits to both. However, the costs of these improvements are high and will require long-lead construction times. This report looked at the impact to the Watana system improvements and energy transfers if the Fairbanks area lines are not converted to 230 kV prior to the Watana project. 17.1 Watana – GVEA Transfer Limits The transfer limits from Healy into Fairbanks for winter peak and summer peak cases with varying Healy dispatches were analyzed to show the impact of the above transmission upgrades. The results are shown below in Table 17-1 and Table 17-2, respectively. Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 70 Table 17-1 Winter Peak GVEA Import Analysis 45 65 61 143 138 ‐15 156 239 230 ‐‐172 255 230* 45 65 116 143 138 ‐15 211 238 230 ‐‐227 255 230* 50 65 145 138 138 ‐37 227 220 230 ‐7.5 254 247 230* 55 65 164 157 138 ‐32 252 245 230 ‐6 280 273 230* * 30 MVAR  of reactive  compensation  at Gold  Hill  and Wilson substation (each) gl 90.4 24 gk ‐‐ gi 35 ‐ gj ‐24 Case Plant Output (MW) Healy  Flows (MW)Healy ‐  Gold  &  Healy ‐  Wilson kVHealy  Plant Eva Crk North P.  Plant N. Pole  CC Plant From  South To North The winter peak cases with the lines between Healy and Gold Hill / Wilson upgraded to 230 kV result in transfer limits North of Healy around 220 - 245 MW. The Healy imports are further increased by 16 – 28 MW to around 255 – 273 if reactive compensation is installed at Gold Hill and Wilson substations (30 MVAR capacitors each). If the Healy – Wilson and Healy – Gold Hill lines are not upgraded to 230 kV, significant reductions in GVEA imports of 110 – 120 MW will be required, resulting in Healy export limits (to Fairbanks) of about 140 MW instead of 255 – 273 MW. Table 17-2 Summer Peak GVEA Import Analysis x40 ‐7 73 138 ‐‐110 191 230 x 40 115 143 138 ‐‐163 191 230 x40150 143 138 ‐‐190 183 230 x 40 169 162 138 ‐‐222 215 230 Healy  ‐ Gold  &  Healy  ‐ Wilson kVHealy  Plant Eva Crk North  P. Plant N. Pole  CC  Plant From  South To North gj ‐24 gi 35 24 Case Plant Output (MW)Healy  Flows (MW) gk ‐‐ gl 86 24 The summer peak cases with the lines between Healy and Gold Hill / Wilson upgraded to 230 kV result in transfer levels North of Healy around 191 – 215 MW. Additional reactive compensation is not required for the summer peak cases. If the Healy – Wilson and Healy – Gold Hill lines are not upgraded to 230 kV, reductions in GVEA imports of 40 – 120 MW will be required, resulting in Healy export limits (to Fairbanks) of about 140 MW instead of 183 – 215 MW. Based on these results it is recommended that the 138 kV lines between Healy and Fairbanks (Gold Hill / Wilson) be upgraded to 230 kV construction and operation. The addition of the 30 Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 71 MVAR of reactive compensation at Gold Hill and Wilson substations will depend upon expected transfer levels into the GVEA system from Watana. It is not recommended that the reactive compensation be installed until expected power transfers into GVEA are defined. 17.2 GVEA Energy Storage The 100 MW of ES can be located in various areas in the Railbelt. Locating a portion of the ES near the North Pole substation reduces the possibility of voltage collapse due to loss of the transmission lines between Wilson and North Pole. The ES is able to provide reactive power support as well as providing a generation source to mitigate transmission overloads. The location of the ES in the North Pole area provides a significant resource to provide energy for motor starting/stopping and for contingencies within the GVEA system and bulk transmission system. The ability of the ES to provide service to large mine loads could be significant. Thirty (30) MW ES of the required 100 MW is recommended to be located in the Fairbanks location to provide energy during under frequency events and also provide regulation due to possible new mine loads. 18 Post-Watana: Kenai No transmission equipment is required for Watana energy to be transferred into the Kenai system beyond those proposed in the Alaska Railbelt Transmission Study. The Watana plant is still under development, however an important part of the plant’s design and integration into the Railbelt concerns the daily load regulation required for the Railbelt loads. If load regulation is supplied by Watana, costs for the project may increase. The ability to provide daily load swings by generation other than Watana may contribute to significant cost savings on the Watana project. The ability to provide load regulation from the Kenai resources means that Kenai area generation must have the ability to be ramped from off-line to full output, without generation constraints. Utilizing the HVDC line and the upgraded Kenai Tie, all of the Kenai loads can be served by northern and Southcentral generation. An outage of the HVDC line during maximum Kenai import conditions requires 5 MW of ES located on the Kenai to mitigate low voltage conditions on the Kenai. The 5 MW ES is required for the condition that all Kenai generation is offline and only the SVC is providing voltage support and regulation. Operating the Bradley Lake units in condense mode removes the ES requirement due to an outage of a HVDC line. An outage of the Kenai 230 kV AC Tie results in the Kenai importing power from Anchorage through the HVDC line only. An ES of 20 MW is required to provide the necessary power to serve the combined HEA and SES loads and losses. The ES will be utilized until other Kenai generation can be increased or brought on-line to make up for this energy shortfall. Sizing the ES at 20 MW will allow for future load growth and also allow for operational flexibility of the ES system. 19 Post-Watana: Southcentral The new equipment associated with transferring up to 500 MW of Watana energy into the Southcentral system is listed below.  Lorraine SVC upgraded to -75 / +50 MVAR capability Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 72  Douglas – Teeland 115 kV line operated at 115 kV  10 MVAR capacitors at Teeland The Lorraine SVC in the Pre-Watana transmission system should be upgraded by adding 25 MVAR of capacitors and 35 MVAR of Thyristor Controlled Reactors (TCR) in order to increase the range of the SVC to -75 / +50 MVAR. This increase is required in order to provide accurate voltage control and also to maintain stability during contingencies. The Douglas – Teeland line should be operated at 115 kV. The 230/138/115 kV transformer installed at Douglas as part of the Railbelt transmission improvements should be converted to 115 kV. The 138/115/34.5 kV 100 MVA 3 winding transformer at Teeland should be removed and the line connected to the 115 kV breaker position in its place. The 100 MVA transformer will overload during heavy transfers south from Watana into the Anchorage area during contingency conditions. 10 MVAR of capacitors should also be added at Teeland 115 kV to aid in supporting the voltage during contingency conditions. 19.1 Watana – Southcentral Transfer Limits Transfers of up to 500 MW from Watana into the Southcentral Railbelt are possible with the identified transmission upgrades. For the winter peak load season, heavy energy imports from Watana during single contingencies do not result in unstable system response, voltage violations, or thermal overloads. The summer peak load cases are dynamically stable for all conditions but have many thermal overloads following single contingencies. Outages of the 230 kV undersea cable will result in overloads of the 115 kV lines from Teeland – Cottle – Herning. The opposite is also true, as outage of the same 115 kV lines in the MEA system will result in overloads of the overhead line sections of the 230 kV undersea cable (Lorraine – West Term, East Term – Plant 2). To eliminate these thermal overloads without re-dispatching Railbelt generation requires additional transmission upgrades to the Southcentral Railbelt, including transmission line upgrades in the MEA system, or a new 2nd undersea 230 kV cable, or a new 230 kV line from Douglas to Hospital substation in MEA. The following three options are as follows: 1) Transmission Line Upgrades a. Upgrade the Teeland – Cottle – Herning 115 kV lines to Rail conductor b. Upgrade Lorraine – East and West – Plant 2 230 kV lines to Rail conductor c. Upgrade Transmission Lines from Pt. Mackenzie to ITSS 138 kV substation 2) New Undersea Cable a. New Fossil Creek 230 kV substation b. New 230 kV line from Plant 2 to Fossil Creek 230 kV c. Operate existing 115 kV line from Plant 2 to Fossil Creek at 230 kV d. New 230 kV undersea line from Lorraine to Fossil Creek 3) New 230 kV line into MEA a. New 230 kV line from Douglas to Hospital substation b. New 230 kV substation at Hospital c. New 230 / 115 kV transformers at Hospital Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 73 Reducing Watana transfers to the south (into the Douglas substation) to 310 MW during these contingencies will remove these overload conditions. The reduction in Watana transfers can result from increasing generation in the Southcentral/Kenai areas. The increase in generation can be completed in a timeframe that prevents conductor damage or long-term overloads and does not result in voltage violations during the re-dispatch. No reductions of Watana plant output are required for the summer valley or winter peak load seasons. We recommend the system utilize re-dispatch as a method of controlling thermal overloads following a single contingency event as opposed to the system improvements required to eliminate the overloads. 19.2 Anchorage Energy Storage With 30 MW of the required ES located in Fairbanks and 20 MW of the ES located on the Kenai, the remaining 25 MW of additional ES should be located in Anchorage. The addition will increase the ES size in Anchorage by 25 MW for a total of 50 MW. Locations for the ES, such as International or University in the CEA system, or Plant 1 or Plant 2 in the AML&P system would be ideal, allowing for the ES to be used for under frequency events, but also to mitigate thermal overloads due to outages of major transmission lines south of Douglas. The increased ES would also increase the Kenai – Anchorage transfer limits, unconstraining Kenai area generation and allowing full Kenai-Watana generation coordination. 20 Post-Watana: Conclusion EPS has completed analysis for determining the post – Watana Railbelt system configuration. The following system additions allow for full utilization of Watana energy and allow for greater operational flexibility of the energy transfers to different parts of the Railbelt. The system additions are listed below. Interconnection / Alaska Intertie  New Watana 230 kV substation  Three New Watana – Gold Creek 230 kV transmission lines o Double bundled Rail conductor o 4 cycle clearing for Watana – Douglas 230 kV  New Gold Creek -/+ 150 MVAR SVC  Power System Stabilizers installed on all Watana units  Gold Creek substation operated at 230 kV  Healy – Gold Creek – Douglas lines operated at 230 kV GVEA System  30 MW Energy Storage System Southcentral  Lorraine SVC upgraded to -75 / +50 MVAR capability Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 74  New Douglas 115 kV bay  Douglas – Teeland 115 kV line operated at 115 kV  10 MVAR capacitors at Teeland 115 kV bus  25 MW additional Energy Storage System (25 MW assumed to be installed prior to Watana) Kenai  20 MW Energy Storage System Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 75 A Pre-Watana Study Appendix A.1 Notes on Benefit/Cost Ratios The costs completed for these projects were developed based on a 2012 cost basis using information supplied by various Railbelt utilities and conceptual designs for each project. The cost estimates are estimated to be +/- 20% of actual construction costs. The benefits for the projects are simplified simulations based on one year of the project’s operation. The identified benefits are assumed to be constant for the life of the project. The actual benefit of any project will vary over time as energy resources, load, transmission lines and operating practices change in the Railbelt. The Net Present Value utilized a discount of 5.00% and an assumed life of each project of 50 years. The Benefit/ Cost ratio was a simplified ratio developed by the ratio of the 2012 costs over the NPV of the project benefits. The actual construction of the projects will consume 10-15 years and as such the construction sequence will have an impact on the benefits available for each project. Certain projects for instance, depend on other projects being constructed in order to obtain the identified benefits. For the feasibility level analysis completed in this study, it was assumed all projects were available in year one. Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 76 A.2 Railbelt Seasonal Loads Table A-1 Year 2023 Railbelt Seasonal Loads by Substation Soldotna 4.3 9.7 9.6 Briggs 1.5 2.6 4.2 Sterling 1.8 1.8 6.1 Johnson 3.6 6.2 10.0 Thompson 4.4 9.1 10.1 Pippel 7.3 12.6 20.1 Kasilof 2.5 0.0 6.8 Parks 2.2 3.7 6.0 Anchor Pt. 2.2 3.9 5.7 Reed 2.5 4.2 6.8 Diamond Ridge 0.8 0.8 2.7 Eklutna 0.0 0.1 0.1 Hatfield 5.0 8.5 12.3 Dow 2.6 4.4 7.1 Fritz Creek 0.7 1.1 1.7 Palmer 1.5 2.5 4.1 Tesoro 12.1 15.1 18.1 Lucas 7.4 12.7 20.3 Bernice 6.4 8.0 11.8 Hospital 4.3 7.4 11.9 Beaver Creek 1.6 2.3 6.8 Oneil 1.9 3.3 5.3 Marathon 3.9 7.1 6.9 Lazelle 3.6 6.2 9.9 Plant 1 28.2 57.6 62.4 Shaw 5.1 8.8 14.1 Sub #6 13.8 25.9 26.5 Herning 8.2 14.2 22.7 SUB#7  5.5 10.3 10.7 Cottle 2.3 3.9 6.3 SUB#8 10.1 19.0 18.1 Theodore 2.7 4.6 7.4 SUB#10 6.2 11.7 13.7 McRae 2.8 4.9 7.8 SUB#12 0.0 2.9 5.2 Redington 1.1 1.9 3.1 SUB#14 7.9 14.9 15.9 Anderson 3.2 5.5 8.8 SUB#15 7.9 14.8 17.3 Douglas 3.7 6.4 10.3 SUB#16 9.4 17.6 15.3 Cantwell 1.2 1.4 1.2 SUB#20 4.0 7.4 9.2 Healy 5.9 7.1 7.1 SUB #22 9.3 17.4 14.8 Nenana 0.9 1.2 2.0 Raptor 10.9 10.9 10.9 Ester 1.4 2.1 3.9 Airport 1.0 1.7 2.5 Gold Hill 0.3 0.5 1.1 Arctic 6.7 11.2 16.3 Musk  Ox 2.2 3.6 7.9 Baxter 3.3 5.5 8.0 Chena Pump 2.6 4.5 7.9 Boniface 3.9 6.5 9.5 University  Ave 2.2 4.7 5.6 Campbell 5.0 8.4 12.3 Aurora 3.3 7.0 9.0 DeBarr 7.3 12.2 17.9 Zhender 5.0 9.4 9.6 Dowling 6.9 11.5 16.8 Kasalak 3.7 6.1 10.9 Hillside 3.0 5.0 7.4 Fox 1.2 1.7 2.6 Huffman 3.6 6.0 8.7 International 4.5 7.9 11.4 Jewel LA 3.9 6.6 9.6 Peger Rd 3.5 7.4 9.0 Klatt 5.7 9.5 13.8 Chena 11.3 20.1 17.9 LaTouche 5.1 8.5 12.4 South Side 8.7 5.9 12.3 O'Malley 4.3 7.2 10.4 South  Fairbanks 2.8 6.7 8.2 Raspberry 4.3 7.1 10.4 Hamilton 5.5 12.5 16.1 Sand Lake 5.3 8.9 12.9 BESS AUX 0.1 0.3 0.2 Spenard 4.5 7.6 11.1 Badger Road 3.2 5.5 10.1 Turnagain 2.7 4.5 6.5 Brockman 1.3 2.3 4.6 Woodland 3.2 5.3 7.7 Hwy Park 3.3 5.8 9.0 Beluga 1.5 2.5 3.7 N. Pole Sub 0.0 0.2 0.2 Tyonek 0.5 0.9 1.3 N. Pole CC1 2.7 2.7 2.7 Loss 5.9 9.8 14.4 Dawson 2.2 4.6 7.4 Post Mark 3.0 5.0 7.3 Johnson 1.1 1.3 2.9 Daves Crk 0.4 0.7 1.0 TECKPOGO 11.6 11.5 12.7 Indian 0.3 0.3 0.3 Jarvis 4.2 3.8 13.3 Girdwood 5.3 5.3 5.3 Pump  9 6.9 6.9 6.9 Portage 1.4 1.4 1.4 Mds 1.7 1.7 1.7 Hope 0.3 0.3 0.3 Wilson 0.2 0.2 0.2 Sewerd Sewerd 7.7 10.3 11.9 Jarvis 0.1 0.1 0.1 Mapco 7.0 19.4 19.4 UAF 0.0 11.9 11.9 Ft. Wainwright 0.0 16.0 16.0 Eielson AFB 0.0 9.6 9.6 FGA 2.0 2.0 2.0 Bus Name Summer  Valley Summer  Peak Winter  Peak HEA MEA MLP GVEA CEA Area Bus Name Summer  Valley Summer  Peak Winter  Peak Area Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 77 A.3 Conductor Ratings Table A-2 Conductor Ratings Winter Summer Winter Summer Winter Summer 4/0 AWG ACSR Penguin OH 88 51 106 61 176 102 336 MCM ACSR Linnet OH 124 70 149 84 249 140 556 MCM ACSR Dove OH 173 96 208 115 347 192 795 MCM ACSR Drake OH 220 120 263 144 439 240 954 MCM ACSR Rail OH 241 154 290 185 483 309 2‐954 MCM ACSR Rail  (x2) OH 616 434 739 521 1232 868 1900 MCM Cu Cable UG 155 140 186 169 310 281 Conductor Name Circuit  Type Conductor Rating (MVA) 115 kV 138 kV 230 kV A.4 Loss/Energy/Capacity Table A-3 Historically Displaced Energy Table A-4 Bradley Stranded Capacity Annual  MWh Historical  losses Projected  Losses Difference HEA energy 47,289 946 1,419 473 Northern users 193,973 3,879 21,337 17,458 Battle Creek ‐ HEA 4,680 0 140 140 Battle Creek ‐ Northern Users 34,320 0 3,775 3,775 Wheeled energy 152,738 4,582 16,801 12,219 Total energy losses 34,065 Historically wheeled energy to Northern users (MWh) Historically Displaced Energy (MWh) Bradley  output HEA Share SES Load Losses Cooper Export 85.4 14.4 10 6 ‐20 75 Bradley Stranded Capacity (MW) Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 78 Table A-5 Kenai Loss Analysis base upgraded base upgraded University Indian 1 1.0 0.3 1.8 0.5 Indian Girdwood 1 0.6 0.2 1.2 0.3 Girdwood Portage 1 0.5 0.2 1.0 0.4 Portage Hope 1 1.4 0.4 2.6 0.7 Hope Daves Creek 1 1.3 0.3 2.2 0.6 Daves Creek Quartz Creek 1 0.7 0.2 1.1 0.3 Quartz Creek XFMR 1 no  line 0.0 no line 0.0 Quartz Creek Soldotna 1 3.7 1.0 6.7 1.8 Quartz Creek Soldotna 2 no line 1.0 no line 1.8 9.2 3.4 16.7 6.2 Soldotna Bradley Lake 1 2.2 0.8 4.2 1.5 Soldotna Bradley Lake 2 no line 0.8 no line 1.5 2.2 1.5 4.2 3.0 Soldotna Thompson 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Thompson Kasilof 1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 Kasilof Anchor Pt 1 0.4 0.1 1.0 0.3 Anchor Pt Diamond Ridge 1 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.1 Diamond Ridge Fritz Crk 1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.1 Fritz Crk Bradley Lk 1 0.7 0.4 1.1 0.6 1.6 0.7 3.0 1.1 12.9 5.6 23.9 10.3 77.6 81.5 100.2 107.6 ‐3.4 ‐2.7 ‐8.8 ‐7.3 ‐3.9 ‐3.1 ‐9.2 ‐7.7 39.5 20.2 51.5 24.0 42.9 22.9 60.3 31.3 Notes:   Cooper Lake unit 1 online, at 9.8 MW   Cooper Lake unit 2 online, at 9.8 MW   only changes are Bradley Lake output   swing bus at Beluga 7   tie flow measured on Dave's Creek ‐ Hope line   HEA taking 14.4 MW of Bradley Lake Total: University ‐ Bradley Lake (All Lines) Kenai tie flow SPP 138 kV angle University 138 kV angle Bradley Lake 115 kV angle Subotal: University ‐ Soldotna Subtotal: Soldotna ‐ Bradley Lake Subtotal: Soldotna ‐ Bradley Lake Kenai Loss Analysis Bradley Output 90 120From Bus To Bus Ckt ID Values Line Losses / Bus Angles 20.0 28.9Reduction of angle Angle Difference Bradley Lake ‐ SPP Reduction of losses 7.3 13.6 Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 79 A.5 Kenai Transmission Cost Analysis Below are the detailed cost analyses for the different upgrades proposed for the Kenai transmission system. A.5.1 2nd Bradley Lake – Soldotna Line Table A-6 2nd Bradley Lake – Soldotna Line, Substation Costs Table A-7 2nd Bradley Lake – Soldotna Line, Line Construction Costs A.5.2 Dave’s Creek – University 230 kV Station Conversion Table A-8 Dave’s Creek – University 230 kV Station Conversion Costs A.5.3 Dave’s Creek – University 230 kV Line Conversion Table A-9 Dave’s Creek – University 230 kV Line Conversion Costs A.5.4 Dave’s Creek – Quartz Creek Line Upgrade Table A-10 Dave’s Creek – Quartz Creek Line Upgrade Station Description Costs Bradley Lake Add new Bay/115 kV cable to Bradley GIS 2,865,141$ Soldotna 115 kV station - Ring Bus 7,684,406$ Total Substation Additions 10,549,547$ Line Description Costs Bradley to Bradley Junction New 19.2 mi. 115kV X-tower , Drake Conductor 18,000,000$ Bradley Junction to Soldotna New 48.6 mi. 115kV H-frame, Drake Conductor 37,000,000$ Total Line Construction 55,000,000$ Station Description Costs Dave's Creek 230 kV Transformer,breaker, reactor 20,216,517$ Summit 230 kV Circuit Switcher/transformer 1,803,319$ Hope 230 kV Circuit Switcher/transformer 1,803,319$ Portage 230 kV Circuit Switcher/transformer 3,791,449$ Girdwood 230 kV GIS, Circuit Switcher/transformers 12,038,689$ Indian 230 kV Circuit Switcher/transformer 3,026,814$ University 230 kV relaying/controls 361,475$ Totals Substation Conversion 43,041,582$ Line Description Costs University to Daves Creek Upgrade 77 mi. from 115 to 230kV, Drake Conductor 57,500,000$ Line Description Costs Daves Creek to Quartz Creek Upgrade 14.5 mi. Conductor to Rail 13,650,000$ Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 80 A.5.5 HVDC Connection Bernice Lake to Beluga, BES System Table A-11 HVDC and BES System Costs A.6 Southcentral Transmission Cost Analysis Below are the detailed cost analyses for the different upgrades proposed for the Southcentral transmission system. A.6.1 Fossil Creek – Eklutna (Eklutna Express) Substation Additions Table A-12 Eklutna Express Substation Addition Costs A.6.2 Lorraine – Douglas Station Additions / Upgrades Table A-13 Lorraine & Douglas Substation Addition Costs A.6.3 Lorraine – Douglas 230 kV Line Addition Table A-14 Lorraine – Douglas 230 kV Line Addition Costs Line/Station Description Costs 100 MW , 80kV Converter 2-36mi. Submarine DC cables, connect to Bernice 115kv & Beluga 138kV 185,310,000$ 25 MW BES BES in Anchorage 30,200,000$ Total New HDVC Tie 215,510,000$ Station Description Costs Fossil Creek New 115kV Ring Bus, 4 line terminals 10,678,568$ Eklutna Hydro New 115kV Ring Bus, 3 line terminals, 2 Xformers 9,692,340$ Total Substation Additions 20,370,908$ Station Description Costs Lorraine New 230kV station w. 5 line Terminals, SVC 41,209,900$ Douglas New 230/138kV station w. 5 line terminals & 3 Xformers 32,056,081$ Total Substation improvements 73,265,981$ Line Description Costs Lorraine to Douglas New 42 mi double circuit 230kV line 56,080,425$ Total Line Construction 56,080,425$ Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 81 A.7 Northcentral Transmission Cost Analysis Below are the detailed cost analyses for the different upgrades proposed for the Northcentral transmission system. Table A-15 Northern Intertie Station Upgrade Costs Table A-16 2nd Northern Intertie Line Station Description Costs Healy new 230kV station w. 5 line terminals (oper. 138kV) $37,528,380 Gold Creek new 230kV station w. 4 line terminals & 2 reactors $37,528,380 Total Substation improvements 75,056,760$ Line Description Costs Douglas to Healy New 171 mi 230kV single circuit line 188,100,000$ Total Line Construction 188,100,000$ Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 82 B Prioritization Appendix ID Task Name Start Finish Cost0Railbelt_ProjectsThu 1/9/14Fri 5/21/27$921,427....1Unconstrain BradleyWed 4/9/14Thu 7/14/22$388,171.362Bernice Lake‐Beluga HVDCWed 4/9/14Thu 6/28/18$185,310.003PermittingWed 4/9/14Tue 1/10/17$1,278.004EngineeringSat 4/12/14Thu 1/12/17$19,170.005ConstructionSun 9/27/15Thu 6/28/18$164,862.00625 MW/14 MWh BESSWed 4/9/14Thu 3/9/17$30,200.007DesignWed 4/9/14Wed 11/18/15$3,020.008ConstructionFri 11/21/14Thu 3/9/17$27,180.009University ‐ Quartz Creek UpgradeWed 5/9/18Mon 5/24/21$107,111.8110University‐Dave's 230 kVSat 6/9/18Mon 5/24/21$57,500.0111Operation ‐ 1 DesignSat 6/9/18Thu 11/22/18$1,916.6712Operation ‐ 1 ConstructionMon 12/3/18Fri 9/6/19$17,250.0013Operation ‐ II DesignSun 3/3/19Thu 8/15/19$1,916.6714Operation ‐ II ConstructionMon 8/26/19Fri 5/29/20$17,250.0015Operation ‐ III DesignMon 8/26/19Fri 2/7/20$1,916.6716Operation ‐ III ConstructioinTue 8/18/20Mon 5/24/21$17,250.0017Dave's Creek ‐ Quartz CreekSun 12/9/18Fri 2/7/20$13,650.0018DesignSun 12/9/18Thu 5/23/19$1,050.0019ConstructionMon 6/3/19Fri 2/7/20$12,600.0020University‐Dave's SubstationsWed 5/9/18Thu 7/9/20$34,608.0021Operation ‐ I DesignWed 5/9/18Tue 10/23/18$2,249.0022Operation ‐ I ConstructionSun 11/4/18Thu 10/3/19$15,055.0023Operation ‐ II DesignSat 1/26/19Thu 7/11/19$2,249.0024Operation ‐ II ConstructionSat 8/10/19Thu 7/9/20$15,055.0025Quartz Creek SubstationSun 12/9/18Thu 10/8/20$1,353.8026DesignSun 12/9/18Thu 8/15/19$135.3827ConstructionSun 8/18/19Thu 10/8/20$1,218.4228New Bradley‐Soldotna 115 kV LineSat 12/9/17Thu 7/14/22$65,549.5529Soldotna SubstationSat 2/9/19Thu 2/3/22$7,684.4130DesignSat 2/9/19Thu 4/2/20$768.4431ConstructionFri 4/3/20Thu 2/3/22$6,915.9732Bradley Lake SubstationThu 5/9/19Wed 6/2/21$2,865.1433DesignThu 5/9/19Wed 4/8/20$286.5134ConstructionThu 4/9/20Wed 6/2/21$2,578.636/28KenaiKenaiKenaiKenaiKenaiKenaiKenaiKenaiKenaiKenaiKenai2/7KenaiKenai7/9KenaiKenaiKenaiKenai10/8KenaiKenai2/3KenaiKenaiKenaiKenaiH1H2H1H2H1H2H1H2H1H2H1H2H1H2H1H2H1H2H1H2H1H2H1H2H1H2H1H2H1H2H1H22013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028TaskSplitMilestoneSummaryProject SummaryExternal TasksExternal MilestoneInactive TaskInactive MilestoneInactive SummaryManual TaskDuration‐onlyManual Summary RollupManual SummaryStart‐onlyFinish‐onlyDeadlineProgressManual ProgressProject: Railbelt_ProjectsDate: Thu 3/13/14 ID Task Name Start Finish Cost35Bradley‐Soldotna 115 kV LineSat 12/9/17Thu 7/14/22$55,000.0036PermittingSat 12/9/17Thu 3/26/20$550.0037DesignFri 3/27/20Thu 2/25/21$5,500.0038ConstructionFri 2/26/21Thu 7/14/22$48,950.0039262 MWh Flexible Gas StorageTue 12/9/14Mon 1/4/16$18,200.0040DesignTue 12/9/14Mon 5/25/15$1,200.0041ConstructionTue 5/26/15Mon 1/4/16$17,000.0042Southcentral ProjectsThu 1/9/14Tue 6/11/19$61,580.8143Fossil Creek SubstationThu 1/9/14Thu 10/20/16$10,678.5744PermittingThu 1/9/14Wed 2/5/14$571.1845DesignWed 2/12/14Tue 8/26/14$925.3246ConstructionSat 8/29/15Thu 10/20/16$9,182.0747Eklutna SubstationWed 12/9/15Wed 8/23/17$9,692.3448DesignWed 12/9/15Tue 6/21/16$881.1249ConstructionThu 6/30/16Wed 8/23/17$8,811.2250Loraine SubstationWed 12/9/15Thu 10/19/17$21,985.9051DesignWed 12/9/15Tue 8/16/16$1,760.1752ConstructionFri 8/26/16Thu 10/19/17$20,225.7353Loraine Substation ‐ SVCWed 8/9/17Tue 6/11/19$19,224.0054Design/ConstructionWed 8/9/17Tue 6/11/19$19,224.0055Anchorage‐Healy ProjectsWed 4/9/14Mon 10/7/24$346,697.0556Communications UpgradeSun 2/19/17Mon 8/30/21$15,000.0057DesignSun 2/19/17Mon 8/30/21$3,000.0058ConstructionSun 4/1/18Mon 8/30/21$12,000.0059Douglas SubstationThu 2/9/17Fri 4/19/19$32,056.0860PermittingSat 4/1/17Fri 9/1/17$224.1761DesignThu 2/9/17Wed 10/18/17$2,914.1962ConstructionMon 3/26/18Fri 4/19/19$28,917.7263Douglas ‐Lorraine 230 kVWed 4/9/14Thu 12/6/18$56,080.4264PermittingWed 4/9/14Tue 9/23/14$150.0065DesignTue 8/9/16Mon 7/10/17$6,242.2366ConstructionFri 7/21/17Thu 12/6/18$49,688.1967Gold Creek SubstationMon 4/9/18Mon 8/10/20$17,932.1768DesignMon 4/9/18Fri 12/14/18$1,575.6569ConstructionTue 3/26/19Mon 8/10/20$16,356.527/14KenaiKenaiKenai1/4KenaiKenai10/20South CentralSouth CentralSouth Central8/23South CentralSouth Central10/19South CentralSouth Central6/11South Central4/19NorthernNorthern12/6NorthernNorthernNorthern8/10NorthernNorthernH1H2H1H2H1H2H1H2H1H2H1H2H1H2H1H2H1H2H1H2H1H2H1H2H1H2H1H2H1H2H1H22013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028TaskSplitMilestoneSummaryProject SummaryExternal TasksExternal MilestoneInactive TaskInactive MilestoneInactive SummaryManual TaskDuration‐onlyManual Summary RollupManual SummaryStart‐onlyFinish‐onlyDeadlineProgressManual ProgressProject: Railbelt_ProjectsDate: Thu 3/13/14 ID Task Name Start Finish Cost70Douglas ‐ Healy 230 kv Line Tue 6/17/14Mon 12/23/19$1,881.0071PermittingTue 6/17/14Mon 12/23/19$1,881.0072Douglas‐Gold Creek 230 kVSat 3/9/19Tue 12/13/22$93,109.5073Line I ‐ DesignSat 3/9/19Thu 4/30/20$4,702.5074Line I ‐ ConstructionTue 6/2/20Mon 10/18/21$41,852.2575Line II ‐ DesignTue 6/2/20Mon 7/26/21$4,702.5076Line II ‐ ConstructionWed 7/28/21Tue 12/13/22$41,852.2577Gold Creek‐Healy 230 kVFri 4/9/21Tue 8/13/24$93,109.5078Line I ‐ DesignFri 4/9/21Thu 6/2/22$4,702.5079Line I ‐ ConstructionFri 6/3/22Thu 10/19/23$41,852.2580Line II ‐ DesignWed 2/2/22Tue 3/28/23$4,702.5081Line II ‐ ConstructionWed 3/29/23Tue 8/13/24$41,852.2582Healy SubstationWed 12/9/20Mon 10/7/24$37,528.3883PermittingWed 12/9/20Tue 10/11/22$1,454.0584DesignWed 10/12/22Tue 5/23/23$3,302.5885ConstructionTue 5/23/23Mon 10/7/24$32,771.7586Healy ‐ Fairbanks ProjectsWed 12/9/20Fri 5/21/27$106,778.5087Healy‐Gold Hill 230 kV T‐LineWed 12/9/20Wed 7/15/26$85,719.8988PermittingWed 12/9/20Tue 11/9/21$103.1589DesignThu 12/9/21Wed 10/11/23$1,031.5390Construction ‐ IThu 10/12/23Wed 9/11/24$28,195.0791Construction ‐ IIThu 9/12/24Wed 8/13/25$28,195.0792Construction ‐ IIIThu 8/14/25Wed 7/15/26$28,195.0793Northern Intertie Subs (Eva Creek, Wilson)Mon 12/9/24Fri 5/21/27$7,364.4794DesignMon 12/9/24Fri 11/7/25$771.6095ConstructionMon 7/21/25Fri 5/21/27$6,592.8796Healy‐Gold Hill Subs (Clear, Nenana, Ester, Gold Hill)Wed 3/9/22Thu 1/16/25$13,694.1497DesignWed 3/9/22Tue 2/7/23$1,369.4198ConstructionSat 3/18/23Thu 1/16/25$12,324.7312/23Northern12/13NorthernNorthernNorthernNorthern8/13NorthernNorthernNorthernNorthern10/7NorthernNorthernNorthern7/15NorthernNorthernNorthernNorthernNorthern5/21NorthernNorthern1/16NorthernNorthernH1H2H1H2H1H2H1H2H1H2H1H2H1H2H1H2H1H2H1H2H1H2H1H2H1H2H1H2H1H2H1H22013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028TaskSplitMilestoneSummaryProject SummaryExternal TasksExternal MilestoneInactive TaskInactive MilestoneInactive SummaryManual TaskDuration‐onlyManual Summary RollupManual SummaryStart‐onlyFinish‐onlyDeadlineProgressManual ProgressProject: Railbelt_ProjectsDate: Thu 3/13/14 Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 86 C Pre-Watana Detailed Cost Estimates C.1 Bradley Constraints Table C-1 Bernice Lake-Beluga HVDC Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 87 Table C-2 25 MW/14 MWh BESS Table C-3 Bradley-Soldotna 115 kV – Line Sections Location MW MWh BESS Costs Sub/Connection Costs Total Costs Anchorage 25 14 24,400,000$ 5,800,000$ 30,200,000$ Line Section Existing Structure Type Existing Framing Existing Line Miles Proposed Structure Type Proposed Framing Proposed Location Total Costs Bradley - Bradley Jct X-Twr 115kV 19.2 X-Twr 115kV Parallel to Existing 18,000,000$ Bradley Jct - Soldotna STH-1A 115kV 48.6 STH-1A 115kV Parallel to Existing 37,000,000$ Total 55,000,000$ Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 88 Table C-4 Bradley Substation Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 89 Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 90 Table C-5 Soldotna Substation Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 91 Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 92 Table C-6 Dave’s Creek - Hope 230kV Line Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 93 Table C-7 Hope – Portage 230kV Line Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 94 Table C-8 Portage - Girdwood 230kV Line Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 95 Table C-9 Girdwood - Indian 230kV Line Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 96 Table C-10 Indian - University 230kV Line Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 97 Table C-11 Dave’s Creek Substation Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 98 Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 99 Table C-12 Summit & Hope Substations Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 100 Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 101 Table C-13 Portage Substation Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 102 Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 103 Table C-14 Girdwood Substation Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 104 Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 105 Table C-15 Indian Substation Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 106 Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 107 Table C-16 University Substation Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 108 Table C-17 Quartz Creek Substation Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 109 Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 110 Table C-18 Dave's Creek - Quartz Creek Upgrade Line Section Existing Structure Type Existing Framing Existing Line Miles Proposed Structure Type Proposed Framing Proposed Location Total Costs Quartz Ck - Davis Ck STH-1A 115kV 14.5 STH-1D 115kV DBL Existing Alignment 13,650,000$ Quartz Creek Sub 1,353,802$ Total 15,003,802$ Add breaker position, increase bus ampacity Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 111 C.2 Southcentral / Overall Table C-19 Fossil Creek Substation Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 112 Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 113 Table C-20 Eklutna Hydro Substation Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 114 Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 115 C.3 Northern System Table C-21 Lorraine Substation Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 116 Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 117 Table C-22 Douglas Substation Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 118 Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 119 Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 120 Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 121 Table C-23 Healy Substation Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 122 Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 123 Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 124 Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 125 Table C-24 Gold Creek Substation Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 126 Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 127 Table C-25 Lorraine-Douglas 230 kV Line Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 128 Table C-26 Douglas – Healy 230 kV line Line Section Line Miles Cost ($/mile) Proposed Framing Total Costs Douglas - Healy 171 1,100,000$ 230kV 188,100,000$ Total 188,100,000$ Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 129 Table C-27 Healy – Gold Hill 230 kV Line Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 130 Table C-28 Clear and Eva Creek Substations Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 131 Table C-29 Nenana Substation Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 132 Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 133 Table C-30 Ester Substation Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 134 Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 135 Table C-31 Gold Hill and Wilson Substations Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 136 Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 137 D Post-Watana Detailed Cost Estimates D.1 Watana Interconnection Table D-1 Watana - Gold Creek 230 kV lines Description Quantity Unit Material Cost ($1,000) Labor Cost ($1,000) Material & Labor Cost ($1,000) Total Cost ($1,000) Structures 185 ea $40.0 $28.3 $68.3 $12,667 Foundations 411 Ea $5.2 $21.1 $26.3 $10,782 Conductor 35 crkt mi $88.9 $166.8 $255.7 $8,948 Other* 35 crkt mi $21.4 $83.5 $104.9 $3,673 50% Road $4,328 Subtotal $40,398 Mob/Demob @15% 6,060 Engineering, Management, Permitting @15% Subtotal 6,060 Estimated Construction Cost $52,518 Contingency @20% Total $10,504 Estimated Summer Construction Cost 63,021 Winter Construction Cost adder @ 25% of Subtotal $10,100 Estimated Winter Construction Cost $73,121 Circuit #1 100% $73,121 Circuit #2 (20% reduction for second circuit) 80% $58,497 Circuit #3 (20% reduction for third circuit) 80% $58,497 Total $190,115 Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 138 Table D-2 Healy - Gold Creek - Douglas 230 kV operation D.2 Southcentral Table D-3 Southcentral Upgrades D.3 75 MW Energy Storage Table D-4 Energy Storage Project Costs Description Total Costs Operational Conversion 1,000,000$ Cantwell, Steven, Douglas 230 kV Transformers 5,250,000$ Total 6,250,000$ Lorraine SVC upgrade to -75 / +50 MVAR 45.0$ Douglas - Teeland 115 kV operation 7.0$ Teeland 10 MVAr Capacitors 2.5$ Total 54.5$ Project Total Costs (Millions) Location MW MWh BESS Costs Sub/Connection Costs Total Costs GVEA 30 17 29,280,000$ 5,800,000$ 35,080,000$ Anchorage 25 14 24,400,000$ 5,800,000$ 30,200,000$ HEA 20 11 19,520,000$ 5,800,000$ 25,320,000$ Total 90,600,000$ Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 139 E Economic Analysis Sensitivity Sensitivity Analyses Notes: NS0: All transmission upgrades NS4: No transmission upgrades S2: Case NS0 + remove DC tie Negative transactions are sales and positive transactions are purchases. GVEA LNG is priced at $3.5 above cook inlet gas Base Case Production Costs $,000 Net Transactions GWh GVEA CC & CT GWh NS0 NS4 Savings NS0 NS4 NS0 NS4 System 391,193 531,125 139,932 0 ‐3 0.0 7.8 NP 1 GVEA 169,241 220,946 51,705 606 121 0.0 4.0 NP 2 MEA 61,581 84,103 22,521 ‐129 ‐17 1.5 420.2 NPCC ML&P 54,204 89,886 35,683 ‐291 ‐106 0.0 7.2 Z 1 CEA + SES 87,308 89,069 1,761 41 ‐6 0.0 13.3 Z 2 HEA 18,859 47,122 28,263 ‐227 4 Sensitivity 1: Fairbanks Area Load Development ‐ add 100 MW to GVEA's peak load (60 MW off‐peak.) Production Costs $,000 Net Transactions GWh GVEA CC & CT GWh NS0‐1 NS4‐1 Savings NS0‐1 NS4‐1 NS0‐1 NS4‐1 System 483,161 792,318 309,157 0 ‐23 0.0 43.2 NP 1 GVEA 379,769 479,464 99,695 1422 524 0.0 30.3 NP 2 MEA 36,499 84,625 48,126 ‐310 ‐80 3.1 458.9 NPCC ML&P ‐25,343 92,028 117,371 ‐897 ‐365 0.0 86.5 Z 1 CEA + SES 84,053 87,952 3,899 29 ‐39 0.0 129.6 Z 2 HEA 8,183 48,250 40,067 ‐243 ‐62 Sensitivity 1a: Fairbanks Area LNG ‐ allow Zehnder, North Pole and North Pole combined cycle to use LNG. Production Costs $,000 Net Transactions GWh GVEA CC & CT GWh NS0‐1a NS4‐1a Savings NS0‐1a NS4‐1a NS0‐1a NS4‐1a System 384,022 442,103 58,081 0 0 0.0 36.5 NP 1 GVEA 107,176 132,152 24,976 309 1 0.0 15.3 NP 2 MEA 77,456 84,028 6,572 61 0 283.4 413.8 NPCC ML&P 74,125 89,491 15,366 ‐216 ‐15 0.0 41.4 Z 1 CEA + SES 91,999 89,358 ‐2,641 43 2 0.0 70.6 Z 2 HEA 33,267 47,074 13,808 ‐197 13 Sensitivity 1aa: Fairbanks Area LNG ‐ allow North Pole combined cycle to use LNG. Production Costs $,000 Net Transactions GWh GVEA CC & CT GWh NS0‐1aa NS4‐1aa Savings NS0‐1aa NS4‐1aa NS0‐1aa NS4‐1aa System 384,041 459,261 75,220 0 ‐3 0.0 7.0 NP 1 GVEA 130,697 149,295 18,598 309 120 0.0 5.4 NP 2 MEA 71,670 84,054 12,384 61 ‐17 283.1 419.8 NPCC ML&P 65,744 89,516 23,771 ‐216 ‐104 0.0 7.8 Z 1 CEA + SES 89,440 89,143 ‐297 43 ‐6 0.0 14.3 Z 2 HEA 26,490 47,254 20,764 ‐197 4 Sensitivity 1b: Fairbanks Area Load Development and LNG ‐ add 100 MW to GVEA's peak load (60 MW off‐peak) and allow Zehnder,  North Pole and North Pole combined cycle to use LNG. Production Costs $,000 Net Transactions GWh GVEA CC & CT GWh NS0‐1b NS4‐1b Savings NS0‐1b NS4‐1b NS0‐1b NS4‐1b System 472,091 573,985 101,894 0 0 0.2 409.5 NP 1 GVEA 211,282 263,606 52,324 953 20 0.0 123.7 NP 2 MEA 70,780 84,045 13,265 ‐258 ‐4 426.3 436.3 NPCC ML&P 66,822 89,555 22,734 ‐495 ‐29 0.0 167.7 Z 1 CEA + SES 92,179 89,623 ‐2,556 39 0 0.0 170.8 Z 2 HEA 31,029 47,156 16,127 ‐239 12 Sensitivity 1bb: Fairbanks Area Load Development and LNG ‐ add 100 MW to GVEA's peak load (60 MW off‐peak) and allow North Pole  combined cycle to use LNG. Production Costs $,000 Net Transactions GWh GVEA CC & CT GWh NS0‐1bb NS4‐1bb Savings NS0‐1bb NS4‐1bb NS0‐1bb NS4‐1bb System 472,223 716,967 244,745 0 ‐22 0.0 47.2 NP 1 GVEA 335,685 403,512 67,827 954 519 0.0 29.7 NP 2 MEA 35,919 84,618 48,699 ‐260 ‐77 426.4 459.0 NPCC ML&P 12,765 92,706 79,941 ‐494 ‐363 0.0 92.5 Z 1 CEA + SES 84,284 87,886 3,602 39 ‐39 0.0 132.3 Z 2 HEA 3,570 48,244 44,674 ‐239 ‐62 Sensitivity 1c: Fairbanks Area Load Decline ‐ 44 MW is subtracted from GVEA's load in every hour due to Ft Knox closing.  Production Costs $,000 Net Transactions GWh GVEA CC & CT GWh NS0‐1c NS4‐1c Savings NS0‐1c NS4‐1c NS0‐1c NS4‐1c System 342,794 460,528 117,734 0 0 0.0 1.0 NP 1 GVEA 84,386 157,744 73,357 204 ‐7 0.0 0.2 NP 2 MEA 67,984 78,366 10,381 76 2 0.0 348.3 NPCC ML&P 69,636 88,484 18,848 ‐173 ‐10 0.0 2.3 Z 1 CEA + SES 89,899 89,120 ‐780 44 3 0.0 10.1 Z 2 HEA 30,888 46,815 15,927 ‐151 12 Sensitivity 1d: Fairbanks Area Load Decline and LNG ‐ 44 MW is subtracted from GVEA's load in every hour due to Ft Knox closing      and allow Zehnder, North Pole and North Pole combined cycle to use LNG.    This is a most unlikely scenario. Production Costs $,000 Net Transactions GWh GVEA CC & CT GWh NS0‐1d NS4‐1d Savings NS0‐1d NS4‐1d NS0‐1d NS4‐1d System 337,802 389,303 51,501 0 1 0.0 7.2 NP 1 GVEA 60,670 85,976 25,306 ‐68 ‐20 0.0 3.4 NP 2 MEA 71,465 78,256 6,791 266 4 263.7 351.7 NPCC ML&P 76,477 88,842 12,365 ‐160 ‐2 0.0 5.5 Z 1 CEA + SES 92,052 89,166 ‐2,886 48 5 0.0 12.5 Z 2 HEA 37,138 47,063 9,925 ‐86 14 Sensitivity 1dd: Fairbanks Area Load Decline and LNG ‐ 44 MW is subtracted from GVEA's load in every hour due to Ft Knox closing        and allow North Pole combined cycle to use LNG.      This is a most unlikely scenario. Production Costs $,000 Net Transactions GWh GVEA CC & CT GWh NS0‐1dd NS4‐1dd Savings NS0‐1dd NS4‐1dd NS0‐1dd NS4‐1dd System 337,802 398,401 60,599 0 0 0.0 0.8 NP 1 GVEA 64,532 95,456 30,924 ‐68 ‐9 0.0 0.3 NP 2 MEA 70,226 78,309 8,083 266 3 263.7 350.4 NPCC ML&P 75,419 88,727 13,308 ‐160 ‐9 0.0 1.8 Z 1 CEA + SES 91,495 89,001 ‐2,494 48 3 0.0 10.6 Z 2 HEA 36,130 46,908 10,778 ‐86 12 Sensitivity 2: Companies may not claim duct firing to meet their spinning reserve requirements but are also not required to declare  the duct firing as part of their spinning reserve obligations. Production Costs $,000 Net Transactions GWh NS0‐2 NS4‐2 Savings NS0‐2 NS4‐2 System 389,269 537,735 148,466 0 ‐3 GVEA 168,764 221,031 52,267 587 123 MEA 67,706 84,109 16,403 9 ‐17 ML&P 41,489 91,138 49,650 ‐455 ‐100 CEA + SES 91,645 91,094 ‐551 92 ‐5 HEA 19,665 50,362 30,697 ‐233 ‐5 Sensitivity 3: Reduce the Railbelt spinning reserve by 75% of the new Anchorage area BESS rating. Note: This case only applies to cases where the system is pooled.  The effect has been demonstrated for cases NS0 and S2. Production Costs $,000 Net Transactions GWh NS0 NS0‐3 Savings NS0 NS0‐3 System 391,193 390,987 206 0 0 GVEA 169,241 169,183 59 606 606 MEA 61,581 62,155 ‐574 ‐129 ‐117 ML&P 54,204 53,553 650 ‐291 ‐299 CEA + SES 87,308 87,374 ‐66 41 42 HEA 18,859 18,721 138 ‐227 ‐231 Production Costs $,000 Net Transactions GWh S2 S2‐3 Savings S2 S2‐3 System 401,247 401,599 ‐352 0 0 GVEA 171,139 171,131 8 597 596 MEA 60,527 60,705 ‐178 ‐227 ‐224 ML&P 39,363 39,351 11 ‐615 ‐619 CEA + SES 86,406 86,256 150 17 14 HEA 43,813 44,156 ‐343 228 232 Sensitivity 4: Reduce the total regulation in the Raillbelt to 10 MW for load and 15 MW for renewable regulation. Note: This case only applies to cases where the system is pooled.                The effect of this has been demonstrated by comparing NS0 with reduced regulation to NS4. Production Costs $,000 Net Transactions GWh NS0‐4 NS4 Savings NS0‐4 NS4 System 389,617 531,125 141,508 0 ‐3 GVEA 168,624 220,946 52,322 598 121 MEA 63,191 84,103 20,911 ‐101 ‐17 ML&P 50,747 89,886 39,140 ‐331 ‐106 CEA + SES 87,726 89,069 1,343 59 ‐6 HEA 19,329 47,122 27,793 ‐225 4 Sensitivity 5: Use the Hilcorp Consent Decree Pricing as the basis for gas prices going forward.         (Beginning with the 2018 price in the CEA contract, prices were escalated through 2020.       With allowance for storage or swing gas and transportation, the assumed pricing       increased by $0.67 in ML&P, CEA, and HEA and $0.60 in MEA.) Production Costs $,000 Net Transactions GWh NS0‐5 NS4‐5 Savings NS0‐5 NS4‐5 System 412,836 551,580 138,744 0 ‐3 GVEA 170,999 222,258 51,258 606 120 MEA 66,275 88,041 21,767 ‐134 ‐18 ML&P 59,731 95,655 35,924 ‐295 ‐103 CEA + SES 92,609 95,220 2,611 41 ‐7 HEA 23,221 50,406 27,185 ‐218 5 Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 144 F Production Modeling Presentation Railbelt Transmission StudiesSlater ConsultingAugust 2013 Transmission Study OverviewPurpose:To evaluate the impact of various proposed transmission upgrades on Railbelt production costs.Time Frame:The transmission study was performed for 2020. All transmission upgrades, additions and retirements to the system that are currently planned were included.Fuel Prices:Gas prices are based on $6.50/mmbtu in 2012 in Anchorage, escalated at 4% annually. Other fuel prices are based on actual 2012 prices and escalated according to EIA forecasts.Slater ConsultingAugust 2013 Proposed Transmission UpgradesSouthern:AC upgrades Quartz to UniversityAdditional conductor from Quartz Creek to Daves Creek230 kv upgrade from Daves Creek to UniversityDC tie from Bernice to Beluga2nd line from Bradley to SoldotnaAnchorage BatteryNorthern:230 kv Lake Lorraine to Douglas upgradeDouglas to Healy upgradeHealy to Fairbanks upgrade Slater ConsultingAugust 2013 Description of PROMOD CasesSlater ConsultingAugust 2013 PROMOD CasesCase NS0: All transmission upgradesCases S1–S4: Southern transmission upgradesCases N1–N3: Northern transmission upgradesCase NS4: No transmission upgradesSlater ConsultingAugust 2013 All Transmission Upgrades CaseCase NS0▪The system operates as a single pool with a single system reserve requirement▪The interface limit for Kenai North is 125 MW▪Anchorage Battery is 25 MW▪Bradley Spin is 27 MWSlater ConsultingAugust 2013 Southern Transmission CasesCase S1: Case NS0 + remove AC upgrades from Quartz Creek to University▪The system operates as a single pool with a single system reserve requirement▪The interface limit for Kenai North is 100 MW▪Anchorage Battery is 25 MW▪Bradley Spin is 27 MWCase S2: Case NS0 + remove DC tie▪The system operates as a single pool with a single system reserve requirement▪The interface limit for Kenai North is 75 MW▪Anchorage Battery is 75 MW▪Bradley Spin is 27 MW Slater ConsultingAugust 2013 Southern Transmission CasesCase S3: Case S1 + Case S2▪The system effectively operates as 2 pools (HEA and the rest of the Railbelt), with HEA providing its reserves separately from the rest of the system.▪The interface limit for Kenai North is 75 MW▪Bradley Spin is 27 MW▪Commitment/Dispatch Hurdles exist between all other companies and HEASlater ConsultingAugust 2013 Southern Transmission CasesCase S4: Case S3 + remove 2nd line from Bradley to Soldotna▪The system effectively operates as 2 pools (HEA and the rest of the Railbelt), with HEA providing its reserves separately from the rest of the system.▪The interface limit for Kenai North is 75 MW▪Bradley Spin is 10 MW▪Commitment/Dispatch Hurdles exist between all other companies and HEASlater ConsultingAugust 2013 Northern Transmission CasesCase N1: Case NS0 + remove Healy to Fairbanks upgrade ▪The system operates as a single pool with a single system reserve requirement▪The interface limit for Kenai North is 125 MW▪Anchorage Battery is 25 MW▪Bradley Spin is 27 MW▪NPCC is must run Oct through MarSlater ConsultingAugust 2013 Northern Transmission CasesCase N2: Case N1 + remove Douglas to Healy upgrade▪The system operates as two pools (GVEA and the rest of the Railbelt), with GVEA providing its reserves separately from the rest of the system▪The interface limit for Kenai North is 125 MW▪The interface limit from Stevens to Cantwell is 75 MW▪Anchorage Battery is 25 MW▪Bradley Spin is 27 MW▪NPCC is must run Oct through Mar▪Commitment/Dispatch Hurdles exist between GVEA and the rest of the system Slater ConsultingAugust 2013 Northern Transmission CasesCase N3: Case N2 + remove 230 kv upgrade from Lake Lorraine to Douglas▪The system operates as two pools (GVEA and the rest of the Railbelt), with GVEA providing its reserves separately from the rest of the system▪The interface limit for Kenai North is 125 MW▪The interface limit from Stevens to Cantwell is 75 MW▪Anchorage Battery is 25 MW▪Bradley Spin is 27 MW▪NPCC is must run Oct through Mar▪Commitment/Dispatch Hurdles exist between GVEA and the rest of the system Slater ConsultingAugust 2013 No Transmission Upgrades CaseCase NS4▪The system operates as a 5 separate companies, with each company providing its own reserves▪The interface limit for Kenai North is 75 MW▪The interface limit from Stevens to Cantwell is 75 MW▪NPCC is must run Oct through Mar▪Bradley Spin is 10 MW▪Commitment/Dispatch Hurdles exist between all companiesSlater ConsultingAugust 2013 Railbelt PROMOD ResultsSlater ConsultingAugust 2013 Railbelt Annual Production Costs ($,000)Case NS0 391,193Case S1 394,387Case S2 401,247Case S3 449,233Case S4 453,066Case N1 413,869Case N2 494,050Case N3 495,500Case NS4 531,125Slater ConsultingAugust 2013 Value of Individual Upgrades ($,000)All Upgrades 139,932Case S1 3,194Case S2 10,054Case S3 58,039Case S4 3,833Total for Southern Upgrades: 61,873Case N1 22,675Case N2 80,181Case N3 1,450Total for Northern Upgrades: 104,306Slater ConsultingAugust 2013 Company PROMOD ResultsSlater ConsultingAugust 2013 GVEA Annual Production Costs ($,000)Case NS0 169,241 Case S1 170,236 Case S2 171,139 Case S3 143,447 Case S4 145,287 Case N1 182,385 Case N2 212,646 Case N3 213,962 Case NS4 220,946Slater ConsultingAugust 2013 MEA Annual Production Costs ($,000)Case NS0 61,581 Case S1 59,410 Case S2 60,527 Case S3 80,880 Case S4 80,664 Case N1 65,167 Case N2 77,965 Case N3 78,039 Case NS4 84,103 Slater ConsultingAugust 2013 ML&P Annual Production Costs ($,000)Case NS0 54,204 Case S1 41,887 Case S2 39,363 Case S3 94,518 Case S4 95,192 Case N1 58,627 Case N2 76,162 Case N3 76,141 Case NS4 89,886 Slater ConsultingAugust 2013 CEA/SES Annual Production Costs ($,000)Case NS0 87,308 Case S1 87,083 Case S2 86,406 Case S3 84,181 Case S4 84,439 Case N1 87,424 Case N2 92,037 Case N3 92,105 Case NS4 89,069 Slater ConsultingAugust 2013 HEA Annual Production Costs ($,000)Case NS0 18,859 Case S1 35,771 Case S2 43,813 Case S3 46,207 Case S4 47,484 Case N1 20,265 Case N2 35,240 Case N3 35,253 Case NS4 47,122 Slater ConsultingAugust 2013 GVEA January 2020 DispatchCase NS0 Case NS4Generation (GWH)Hours on LineNumber of StartsGeneration (GWH)Hours on LineNumber of StartsAurora 17.9 744 0 17.9 744 0Healy 1 17.9 671 2 18.1 671 2Healy 2 37.8 744 0 39.2 744 0NPCC 0.0 0 0 41.9 744 0CT 0.0 0 0 1.8 238 101Diesel 0.0 0 0 0.0 0 0Bradley 4.9 4.9Eva Creek 10.8 10.8Inter‐Co Purchases 55.4 8.9Slater ConsultingAugust 2013 GVEA July 2020 DispatchCase NS0 Case NS4Generation (GWH)Hours on LineNumber of StartsGeneration (GWH)Hours on LineNumber of StartsAurora 17.0 709 3 17.0 709 3Healy 1 20.1 744 0 20.1 744 0Healy 2 26.7 504 1 26.3 504 1NPCC 0.0 0 0 30.2 744 0CT 0.0 0 0 5.8 1030 136Diesel 0.0 0 0 0.0 2 1Bradley 5.9 5.9Eva Creek 4.6 4.6Inter‐Co Purchases 49.5 13.0Slater ConsultingAugust 2013 MEA January 2020 DispatchCase NS0 Case NS4Generation (GWH)Hours on LineNumber of StartsGeneration (GWH)Hours on LineNumber of StartsEklutna 1‐10 102.5 6874 272 81.5 6246 187Bradley 4.0 4.0Eklutna Lk 1.9 1.9Inter‐Co Purchases 1.8 0.0Inter‐Co Sales‐23.8‐1.5Slater ConsultingAugust 2013 MEA July 2020 DispatchCase NS0 Case NS4Generation (GWH)Hours on LineNumber of StartsGeneration (GWH)Hours on LineNumber of StartsEklutna 1‐10 70.6 5622 204 56.3 4930 346Bradley 4.8 4.8Eklutna Lk 2.4 2.4Inter‐Co Purchases 5.9 0.1Inter‐Co Sales‐22.8‐3.1Slater ConsultingAugust 2013 ML&P January 2020 DispatchCase NS0 Case NS4Generation (GWH)Hours on LineNumber of StartsGeneration (GWH)Hours on LineNumber of StartsPlant 1 10.4 424 43 0.7 46 10Plant 2 4.7 149 4 0.0 0 0Plant 2A 84.9 744 0 83.4 744 0SAPP 41.8 744 0 40.0 744 0Bradley 7.5 7.5Eklutna Lk 6.0 6.0Inter‐Co Purchases 0.3 0.0Inter‐Co Sales‐25.2‐7.4Slater ConsultingAugust 2013 ML&P July 2020 DispatchCase NS0 Case NS4Generation (GWH)Hours on LineNumber of StartsGeneration (GWH)Hours on LineNumber of StartsPlant 1 16.7 648 19 13.1 599 26Plant 2 29.1 425 6 36.8 621 7Plant 2A 20.6 192 1 16.2 192 1SAPP 35.5 744 0 34.2 744 0Bradley 9.0 9.0Eklutna Lk 7.5 7.5Inter‐Co Purchases 10.1 0.0Inter‐Co Sales‐19.8‐8.3Slater ConsultingAugust 2013 CEA/SES January 2020 DispatchCase NS0 Case NS4Generation (GWH)Hours on LineNumber of StartsGeneration (GWH)Hours on LineNumber of StartsBeluga 1&2 0.0 0 0 0.0 0 0Beluga 3&5 0.0 0 0 19.1 744 0Beluga 6&7 0.0 0 0 0.0 0 0SAPP 97.6 744 0 93.4 744 0Bradley 9.1 9.1Eklutna Lk 3.4 3.4Cooper 4.7 4.7Fire Island 5.8 5.8Inter‐Co Purchases 14.9 0.0Inter‐Co Sales‐0.6‐0.6Slater ConsultingAugust 2013 CEA/SES July 2020 DispatchCase NS0 Case NS4Generation (GWH)Hours on LineNumber of StartsGeneration (GWH)Hours on LineNumber of StartsBeluga 1&2 0.0 0 0 0.8 199 25Beluga 3&5 0.0 0 0 1.1 164 17Beluga 6&7 0.0 0 0 0.0 0 0SAPP 82.8 744 0 79.9 744 0Bradley 10.9 10.9Eklutna Lk 4.2 4.2Cooper 4.6 4.6Fire Island 3.5 3.5Inter‐Co Purchases 6.3 0.2Inter‐Co Sales‐9.0‐1.8Slater ConsultingAugust 2013 HEA January 2020 DispatchCase NS0 Case NS4Generation (GWH)Hours on LineNumber of StartsGeneration (GWH)Hours on LineNumber of StartsBernice 2 0.0 0 0 0.4 56 7Bernice 3 0.0 0 0 6.1 464 8Bernice 4 0.0 0 0 2.7 186 6Nikiski 36.9 728 1 37.4 728 1Soldotna 33.7 744 1 1.4 58 5Bradley 3.5 3.5Inter‐Co Purchases 0.6 1.1Inter‐Co Sales‐23.5‐0.8Slater ConsultingAugust 2013 HEA July 2020 DispatchCase NS0 Case NS4Generation (GWH)Hours on LineNumber of StartsGeneration (GWH)Hours on LineNumber of StartsBernice 2 0.0 0 0 0.5 131 9Bernice 3 0.0 0 0 2.3 165 14Bernice 4 0.0 0 0 0.8 56 4Nikiski 34.6 739 1 33.6 739 1Soldotna 27.2 679 3 5.6 231 17Bradley 4.2 4.2Inter‐Co Purchases 0.8 1.4Inter‐Co Sales‐21.1‐2.0Slater ConsultingAugust 2013 QUESTIONSSlater ConsultingAugust 2013 Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 178 G Pre-Watana Simulation Results The contents of Appendix G can be found in a separate document titled Appendix G: Pre- Watana Simulation Results. Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 179 H Post-Watana Simulation Results The contents of Appendix H can be found in a separate document titled Appendix H: Post- Watana Simulation Results. Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 180 I Kenai Transmission Study WWW.EPSINC.COM PHONE (425) 883-2833  4020 148th AVE NE, SUITE C, REDMOND, WA 98052  FAX (425) 883-0464 PHONE (907) 522-1953  3305 ARCTIC BLVD., SUITE 201, ANCHORAGE, AK 99503  FAX (907) 522-1182 Alaska Energy Authority Kenai Transmission Study Project # 11-0424 March 7, 2014 David A. Meyer, P.E. Dr. James W. Cote, Jr. P.E. David W. Burlingame, P.E. Alaska Energy Authority Kenai Transmission Study Page ii Summary of Changes Revision Revision Date Revision Description 0 June 4, 2012 Initial release to AEA 1 March 7, 2014 Final release to AEA Table of Contents Executive Summary ........................................................................................................ v  1 Introduction .............................................................................................................. 1  2 Kenai Export and Constraints .................................................................................. 1  3 Generation Configuration ......................................................................................... 2  4 Transmission Options .............................................................................................. 3  4.1 Upgrade Dave’s Creek – University Tie to 230 kV ............................................................ 3  4.2 New HVAC Kenai Intertie .................................................................................................. 3  4.3 100 kV HVDC Intertie Beluga – Bernice Lake ................................................................... 4  4.4 Kenai Transmission Upgrades .......................................................................................... 5  4.5 Transmission Configurations ............................................................................................. 5  5 Power flow Analysis ................................................................................................. 5  6 Loss Analysis ........................................................................................................... 7  7 Stability Analysis ...................................................................................................... 9  7.1 DC Size Analysis – Kenai Tie Trip .................................................................................. 10  7.2 Kenai Tie Analysis – DC / Southern Intertie Trip ............................................................. 11  8 Cost Analysis ......................................................................................................... 12  9 Recommendations ................................................................................................. 13  9.1 N-1-1 Analysis – Recommended Transmission Configurations ...................................... 15  10 Conclusions ........................................................................................................ 16  Appendix A – Load Analysis (MW) IOC versus RIRP .................................................... 17  Appendix B – Generation Dispatches ............................................................................ 18  Appendix C – Power Flow Results ................................................................................ 24  Appendix D – Transient Analysis Contingency List ....................................................... 28  Appendix E – Transient Analysis – Winter Peak ........................................................... 29  Appendix F – Transient Analysis – Summer Peak ........................................................ 33  Appendix G – Transient Analysis – Summer Valley ...................................................... 37  Appendix H – DC Size Analysis Detailed Results ......................................................... 41  Appendix I – DC / Southern Intertie Trip Detailed Results ............................................. 43  Appendix J – Costs of Individual Line Improvements .................................................... 44  J.1 Upgrade Existing Kenai Tie to 230 kV ............................................................................ 44  J.2 Modified 115 kV Kenai Transmission Substations .......................................................... 44  J.3 New 115 kV Line – Bradley Lake to Soldotna ................................................................. 45  J.4 New 115 kV Line – Soldotna to Quartz Creek ................................................................ 45  J.5 New 115 kV Line – Bradley Lake to Quartz Creek .......................................................... 45  J.6 New 115 kV Line – Quartz Creek to Dave’s Creek ......................................................... 45  J.7 Reconductor Existing 115 kV Diamond Ridge – Soldotna Line ...................................... 46  J.8 New Kenai Intertie – 230 kV AC ...................................................................................... 46  J.9 New Kenai Intertie – 138 kV AC ...................................................................................... 47  Alaska Energy Authority Kenai Transmission Study Page iii J.10 New Kenai Intertie – 100 kV HVDC Bernice - Beluga ..................................................... 47  List of Tables Table I. Description – Recommendations, 115 kV Kenai Tie ...................................................... vi  Table II. Description – Recommendations, 230 kV Kenai Tie..................................................... vi  Table 4.2 Proposed Tesoro route per Southern Intertie FEIS ......................................................... 4  Table 4.1 Transmission Configurations .......................................................................................... 5  Table 5.1 Conductor Ratings .......................................................................................................... 6  Table 5.2 Power Flow Results Summary ........................................................................................ 7  Table 6.1 Loss Analysis Results – 99 MW Export Comparisons ................................................... 8  Table 6.2 Loss Analysis Results – 125 MW Export Comparisons ................................................. 9  Table 7.1 Transient Stability Results Summary ........................................................................... 10  Table 8.1 Possible Transmission Configurations .......................................................................... 12  Table 9.1 Preferred Transmission Configurations ........................................................................ 13  Table 9.2 Preferred Transmission Configurations - Costs ............................................................ 13  Table 9.3 Preferred Transmission Configurations – Loss Comparisons ...................................... 14  Table 9.4 N-1-1 Kenai Export Limits - Recommend Transmission Configurations .................... 15  Table A.1 2020 Seasonal Base Case Load from IOC ................................................................... 17  Table A.2 RIRP Winter Peak Loads ............................................................................................. 17  Table A.3 RIRP Summer Peak Loads ........................................................................................... 17  Table A.4 RIRP Summer Valley Loads ........................................................................................ 17  Table B.1 Generation Dispatch – Base, Upgrades, and 3rd Bradley Lake ................................... 19  Table B.2 Generation Dispatch - 3rd Bradley Lake - Sensitivity ................................................. 20  Table B.3 Generation Dispatch - Watana and no 3rd Bradley Lake .............................................. 21  Table B.4 Generation Dispatch - Watana and the 3rd Bradley Lake ............................................. 22  Table C.1 Power flow – Summer Peak – Case B – Bradley and Cooper Export ......................... 24  Table C.2 Power flow – Summer Peak – Case C – 3rd Bradley Lake Unit added ........................ 25  Table C.3 Power flow – Summer Valley – Case B – Bradley and Cooper Export ...................... 26  Table C.4 Power flow – Summer Valley – Case C – 3rd Bradley Lake Unit added ..................... 27  Table D.1 Stability Contingency List ........................................................................................... 28  Table E.1 Stability Results – Winter Peak – Cases A, B, and C .................................................. 29  Table E.2 Stability Results – Winter Peak –Cases C1 and C2 ..................................................... 30  Table E.3 Stability Results – Winter Peak – Cases D and E ........................................................ 31  Table E.4 Stability Results – Winter Peak – Cases F, G, and H ................................................... 32  Table F.1 Stability Results – Summer Peak – Cases A, B, and C ................................................ 33  Table F.2 Stability Results – Summer Peak – Cases C1 and C2 .................................................. 34  Table F.3 Stability Results – Summer Peak – Cases D and E ...................................................... 35  Table F.4 Stability Results – Summer Peak – Cases F, G, and H ................................................ 36  Table G.1 Stability Results – Summer Valley – Cases A, B, and C ............................................. 37  Table G.2 Stability Results – Summer Valley – Cases C1, C2 .................................................... 38  Table G.3 Stability Results – Summer Valley – Cases D and E ................................................... 39  Table G.4 Stability Results – Summer Valley – Cases F, G, and H ............................................. 40  Table H.1 – Kenai Trip Analysis – Summer Valley ..................................................................... 41  Table H.2 – Kenai Trip Analysis – Summer Peak ........................................................................ 41  Table H.2 – Kenai Trip Analysis – Winter Peak .......................................................................... 42  Table I.1 – DC / Southern Intertie Trip Results ............................................................................ 43  Alaska Energy Authority Kenai Transmission Study Page iv Table J.1 Conductor Costs – Upgrade Kenai Tie to 230 kV ........................................................ 44  Table J.2 Substation Costs – Upgrade Kenai Tie to 230 kV ........................................................ 44  Table J.3 Total Costs – Upgrade Kenai Tie to 230 kV ................................................................. 44  Table J.4 Cost Analysis – Kenai Transmission Substations ......................................................... 45  Table J.5 Cost Analysis – New 115 kV line, Bradley Lake - Soldotna ........................................ 45  Table J.6 Cost Analysis – New 115 kV line, Soldotna – Quartz Creek ....................................... 45  Table J.7 Cost Analysis – New 115 kV line, Bradley – Quartz Creek ......................................... 45  Table J.8 Cost Analysis – New 115 kV line, Quartz Creek – Dave’s Creek ................................ 46  Table J.9 Cost Analysis – Reconductor 115 kV line, Diamond Ridge - Soldotna ....................... 46  Table J.10 Conductor Costs – New 230 kV AC Kenai Intertie .................................................... 46  Table J.11 Compensation Costs – New 230 kV AC Kenai Intertie .............................................. 46  Table J.12 Total Costs – New 230 kV AC Kenai Intertie ............................................................ 46  Table J.13 Conductor Costs – New 138 kV AC Kenai Intertie .................................................... 47  Table J.14 Compensation Costs – New 138 kV AC Kenai Intertie .............................................. 47  Table J.15 Total Costs – New 138 kV AC Kenai Intertie ............................................................ 47  Table J.16 Cost Analysis – New 100 kV HVDC Kenai Intertie ................................................... 48  Alaska Energy Authority Kenai Transmission Study Page v Executive Summary Electric Power Systems (“EPS”) has completed the technical studies to determine the impacts to the central and southern utilities due to changes in the Kenai generation and transmission system since the completion of the 2010 Regional Integrated Resource Plan (“RIRP”) administered by the Alaska Energy Authority (“AEA”). The studies and analysis included in the RIRP required updating to reflect these generation changes and to analyze the impact these changes would have on the transmission system recommendations included in the RIRP. The studies included power flow contingency analysis, loss analysis, and transient stability contingency analysis. The focus of the study was to provide unconstrained access to Bradley Lake power and energy with its current capacity as well as the future possibility of a third turbine at the Bradley Lake plant. For purposes of this study, the current capacity of the plant is assumed to be 115 MW. The expanded capacity is assumed to be 135 MW. Prior to the 2015 addition of Kenai area generation, the Kenai export limit was defined as 71 MW in the summer and 82-99 MW in the winter. Following the addition of the 2015 Kenai area generation and other changes in northern Railbelt generation, the export limit will vary from 29 – 104 MW, depending on the Kenai generation configuration. To eliminate the wide variations in Kenai export limits and provide a predictable export limit that allows all Bradley Lake and Cooper Lake generation to be unconstrained, improvements will be required to the Kenai transmission system. . EPS identified various transmission improvements that could alleviate the capacity and energy constraints of the Anchorage-Kenai system to allow unconstrained use of Bradley Lake and Cooper Lake hydro energy and capacity. These improvements include the construction of new transmission facilities, the reconstruction of existing facilities, and the installation of additional transmission compensation. Preliminary analysis indicates that a 100 kV DC intertie between Beluga and Bernice Lake may be the most economical and expeditious method of alleviating the Bradley Lake constraints. The DC tie would utilize submarine cable for the entire length of the route and would be capable of 100 MW of transfer between the Anchorage and Kenai systems. However, this routing and option has only recently been identified and further investigation and cost analysis is required before we can recommend this alternative. The recommended construction projects for the Kenai transmission system include the following two recommendations: DC tie and Soldotna – Quartz Line  Add new 100 kV HVDC Intertie from Beluga to Bernice Lake  Add new 115 kV transmission line from Bradley Lake to Soldotna  Add new 115 kV transmission line from Soldotna to Quartz Creek DC tie and Kenai Tie 230 kV upgrade  Add new 100 kV HVDC Intertie from Beluga to Bernice Lake  Add new 115 kV transmission line from Bradley Lake to Soldotna  Add new Dave’s Creek – University 230 kV upgrade In addition to the projects required for relief of the transmission constraint, analysis of the Kenai Static VAR Compensator (“SVC”) controls should be included due to the age of equipment and Alaska Energy Authority Kenai Transmission Study Page vi consequences of its outage. These controls are almost 20 years old and are no longer readily supported by the manufacturer. The Power Oscillation Dampening (“POD”) function originally installed on the SVC has negative impacts on system operations during certain conditions. Also, the POD has not been modified to account for the relocation of the Soldotna unit to Nikiski or the construction of additional Kenai generation. Consideration should be given to replacing these controls with the same controls utilized on the Anchorage-Fairbanks Intertie to provide common maintenance and training. Loss analysis show that adding the DC intertie, a 2nd Bradley Lake – Soldotna, and a 2nd Soldotna – Quartz Creek 115 kV transmission line result in large decreases in the losses during high Kenai export periods. Losses are decreased over 60% following the proposed improvements. The decreases in losses are also achieved with the DC intertie, a 2nd Bradley Lake – Soldotna 115 kV line, and the Kenai Tie upgraded to 230 kV. A summary of the transmission improvements and their estimated costs are presented in the tables below: Table I. Description – Recommendations, 115 kV Kenai Tie Project Description 100 kV HVDC  Bernice  ‐ Beluga Tie  Alternative, 115 kV  Kenai  Tie Low High Beluga ‐ Bernice  Lake  100 kV DC  Line $134,550 $195,756 Bradley ‐ Soldotna 115 kV line Soldotna ‐ Quartz Creek 115 kV line Total  Range $246,215 $307,421 Cost Range  (1000's) $62,665 $49,000 Table II. Description – Recommendations, 230 kV Kenai Tie Project Description 100 kV HVDC  Bernice  ‐ Beluga Tie  Alternative, 230 kV  Kenai  Tie Low High Beluga ‐ Bernice  Lake  100 kV DC  Line $134,550 $195,756 Bradley ‐ Soldotna 115 kV line Upgrade  Kenai Tie  to 230 kV Total  Range $282,740 $343,946 Cost Range  (1000's) $62,665 $85,525 Alaska Energy Authority Kenai Transmission Study March 7, 2014 Page 1 1 Introduction Electric Power Systems (“EPS”) has conducted a study to determine the impacts to the central and southern utilities due to changes in the Kenai generation and transmission system since the completion of the 2010 Regional Integrated Resource Plan (“RIRP”) administered by the Alaska Energy Authority (“AEA”). Since the completion of the 2010 RIRP, plans for new thermal generation additions on the Kenai and some non-dispatchable generation in the Anchorage were finalized. The studies and analysis included in the RIRP required updating to reflect these generation changes and to analyze the impact these changes would have on the transmission system recommendations included in the RIRP. The purpose of this study is to identify potential changes to the RIRP to mitigate impacts of any generation changes to the Railbelt and evaluate the cost of the mitigation efforts against the benefit realized by the same improvements. The impacts that were evaluated in this RIRP update include the following: 1) Transmission Contingency Analysis 2) Transfer Capacity Analysis 3) Energy and Capacity Loss Analysis 4) Generation Capacity Loss Analysis 5) Penalty Costs for Loss of Hydro-Thermal Coordination Flexibility The study used the three seasonal power flow cases, summer valley, summer peak, and winter peak, using the IOC approved 2020 base cases and utilize version 32.1.1 of Power Systems Simulator Engineer (“PSS/E”) for power flow and transient contingency analysis. It should be noted that the year 2020 IOC base case corresponds to approximately a year 2040- 45 load as represented in the 2010 RIRP. The differences in loads between the 2020 IOC cases and the 2010 RIRP for each of the winter peak, summer peak and summer valley cases are outlined by utility in the tables in Appendix A. The discrepancies between the 2020 IOC base cases and the 2010 RIRP were not resolved. However, the loads utilized for long-term transmission and resource planning should be evaluated and reconciled with the loads used by the IOC. 2 Kenai Export and Constraints Exports from the Kenai are currently limited by both thermal and stability limitations. The Soldotna – Quartz Creek and Quartz Creek – Dave’s Creek sections with have thermal ratings of 96 MVA in the summer, with a Kenai export limit of 71-99 MW limited by stability depending upon the system dispatch. Following the planned Kenai generation and northern utility generation changes, the thermal limits remain the same, however the stability limit for various Kenai exports varies from 29 MW to 104 MW depending on the Kenai system dispatch. In addition to the changes in Kenai export limits, the losses experienced on the Bradley Lake energy will approach 25% under peak operating conditions. Without improvements to the transmission system, the energy and capacity of Bradley Lake will be constrained during most of the year, with increased losses and stranded capacity Alaska Energy Authority Kenai Transmission Study March 7, 2014 Page 2 experienced by the central and northern Railbelt utilities. These constraints will impact the efficiency of the hydro-thermal coordination and access to spinning reserve by the northern utilities. The combination of all these factors has significant economic impacts to the central and northern Railbelt utilities. 3 Generation Configuration The 2020 bases cases were modified to include new generation on the Kenai, the MEA system, and the Watana large hydro project. Without the Watana project, there are significant voltage issues in the Railbelt in the summer valley cases. Prior to assessing the impacts of the Kenai transmission system, voltage correction measures were required in the South Central Railbelt. Planned changes to the MEA transmission system that included a new Hospital-Reed transmission line and a new Herning-Hospital-Reed transmission line were included with the new generation. The Watana large hydro project assumes that significant amounts of new transmission will be required between Healy and the Douglas substations. Generation additions to the 2020 database to evaluate long-term transmission requirements include the following: 1) 3rd Bradley Lake unit, with total Bradley Lake output of 135 MW (45 MW each unit) 2) Watana hydro plant consisting of 3 – 200 MW generators 3) Eklutna 2 (Reed) generation plant consisting of ten, 17 MW reciprocating engines (170 MW total plant output) 4) These generation additions are in addition to the 84 MW of generation added to the Kenai from the 2009 existing system to the 2020 IOC Base Case These generation additions will be dispatched with the generators currently in the 2020 database to create base cases designed to stress the Railbelt grid. Note that it was assumed that the Eklutna 2 generation would not be built if the Watana hydro plant was built. The generation additions were configured into 8 different configurations to be used for each of the 3 seasonal base cases. Generation Case A was configured to be similar to the present day system. Generation Case B utilizes transmission upgrades listed in the next section to achieve high Kenai export conditions. Generation Case C includes the 3rd Bradley Lake unit to achieve even higher Kenai export conditions than Case B. Generation Case C was used for two sensitivity cases. Generation Case C1 was configured with the Nikiski units offline and Generation Case C2 was configured with Nikiski, Bernice Lake, and Cooper Lake units all offline. Additional cases CA and C1A were created by adjusting the spin to the minimum requirements for use in analysis of the DC transmission line option. Cases with Watana online (Generation Cases D and E) were configured with two different Railbelt spin amounts (100 or 200 MW). Configurations of different combinations of Watana and the expanded Bradley Lake plant (Generation cases F-H) were created based on total plant output. The cases were setup with either plant online at their full amount with the other plant at a reduced output. As with the previous Watana case configurations (D and E), Railbelt spin amounts of 100 and 200 MW were used. A list of the different generation configurations is shown below. Summary tables of the different generation dispatches are listed in Appendix B. A) Base case, no transmission or generation additions, similar to 2009 generation dispatch Alaska Energy Authority Kenai Transmission Study March 7, 2014 Page 3 B) No Generation Additions from 2020 IOC Base Case (includes 2015 Kenai generation additions – Nikiski 18 MW HSRG, 17 MW Duct Firing, 49 MW-LM 6000) C) 3rd Bradley Lake addition CA) 3rd Bradley Lake addition, minimum spin case C1) 3rd Bradley Lake addition, with Nikiski offline C1A) 3rd Bradley Lake addition, with Nikiski offline, minimum spin case C2) 3rd Bradley Lake addition, with Nikiski, Bernice Lake, and Cooper Lake offline D) Watana generation at 600 MW with 100 MW of spin on Railbelt* E) Watana generation at 600 MW with 200 MW of spin on Railbelt* F) 3rd Bradley Lake added, 135 MW, Watana generation reduced G) 3rd Bradley Lake with Bradley Lake plant output reduced, Watana generation at 600 MW with 100 MW of spin* H) 3rd Bradley Lake with Bradley Lake plant output reduced, Watana generation at 600 MW with 200 MW of spin* * Except for summer valley cases were low spin values are not possible 4 Transmission Options The two main areas of focus to relieving the generation constraints are to improve the existing transmission system between Bradley Lake and Anchorage without a new intertie or construct a new transmission system between the Kenai and Anchorage in addition to improvements to the existing transmission system. The specifics for the interties as well as other Kenai transmission upgrades are listed below. 4.1 Upgrade Dave’s Creek – University Tie to 230 kV This project includes upgrading the existing 115 kV transmission line to 230 kV construction and operation. On the northern end, the upgraded line would terminate in Anchorage at the 230 kV University substation bus. On the southern end, the line would terminate at Dave’s Creek and would include a single 230 kV to 115 kV 150 MVA transformer to interconnect into the 115 kV bus sections. A 30 MVAR fixed reactor would be required at the Dave’s Creek substation. The reactor would allow load to be served from the Kenai with the University substation end opened without units on the Kenai being operated in the “buck” condition. It was assumed that the Kenai tie transmission upgrades would be wooden H-Frames utilizing 795 ACSR “Drake” conductor. Further switching studies will be required to confirm if a switched reactor can be utilized in conjunction with the existing SVC or if the existing SVC will require upgrading. 4.2 New HVAC Kenai Intertie A new Kenai Intertie option was studied at two voltage levels, 138 kV and 230 kV. The Kenai Intertie termination point in Anchorage would be at Point Woronzof substation. The 138 kV option would assume a direct termination into the 138 kV bus at Point Woronzof. The 230 kV option was modeled with a single 230/138 kV 150 MVA transformer connection to the 138 kV bus. The termination point on the Kenai was at Bernice substation. The 138 kV option was Alaska Energy Authority Kenai Transmission Study March 7, 2014 Page 4 modeled with a single 138/115 kV 150 MVA transformer connection to the 115 kV bus. The 230 kV option was modeled with a single 230/115 kV 150 MVA transformer connection to the 115 kV bus. The Kenai Intertie utilized the Tesoro route as listed in the Southern Intertie Final Environmental Impact Study (FEIS). There are three different underground cable sections due to two airports and crossing the Captain Cook State Recreational Area (SRA). The remainder of the route is overhead until crossing the Cook Inlet with submarine cable. Table 4.2 lists the distances and conductors for the Tesoro preferred route option. Table 4.2 Proposed Tesoro route per Southern Intertie FEIS type size name Bernice  Lake  to Private Airstrip 1 3 overhead 795 Drake Underground for Airstrip 1 1 underground 1000 copper Overhead to Airstrip 2 1 overhead 795 Drake Underground for Airstrip 2 0.5 underground 1000 copper Overhead to Captain Cook SRA 11.2 overhead 795 Drake Underground for Captian Cook SRA 3.4 underground 1000 copper Follow Tesoro pipeline 27.4 overhead 795 Drake NSubmarine Cable  under Cook Inlet 18.1 undersea 1000 copper Route   Option Details Distance   (mi) Conductor type A The 138 kV intertie required a total of 120 MVAr of compensation in order to control the voltages created by the submarine cable charging. The 230 kV option required approximately 270 MVAr of compensation, with at least 65 MVAr of that compensation being a SVC. The values assumed an additional 40 MVAr of compensation already added to the Railbelt system in the base case. 4.3 100 kV HVDC Intertie Beluga – Bernice Lake An HVDC alternative was analyzed due to the complexities found in the HVAC Kenai Intertie above. With HVDC, the length of the submarine cable becomes a cost consideration, but does not present a technical challenge. Therefore in order to minimize the overall cost of the project, a direct tie between Beluga and Bernice Lake was investigated. The direct tie would eliminate the environmentally sensitive areas along the overhead route and avoid the multiple land cables and their associated terminations along the overhead route. The submarine cable would also make entrance into and out of the Beluga and Bernice stations easier than an overhead alternative. The size of the HVDC cable was chosen to carry sufficient load such that during the maximum Anchorage import of 130 MW from Kenai hydro resources, the loss of the existing Anchorage- Dave’s Creek 115 kV line would not result in load shedding in the Anchorage/Mat-Su/Fairbanks areas. We also assumed that the HVDC terminals would be mono-pole terminals as opposed to bi-pole terminals. A mono-pole terminal is similar to an AC transmission line in that a fault on either the single cable or either of the HVDC terminals would result in the loss of the line. This sizing and methodology is considerably different than previous analysis which evaluated bi- pole systems of 125 MW or more capacity. Our studies used a capacity of 100 MW for the mono-pole converters. Due to the length of outage delay for a submarine cable failure, we did include two submarine cables in the project. The route of the cables would result in the majority of the cables being parallel to the Cook Inlet current flow which should make them less susceptible to damage caused by high currents than the Pt. Woronzof- Pt. Possession cables. A failure of either cable Alaska Energy Authority Kenai Transmission Study March 7, 2014 Page 5 would result in the loss of the intertie until the faulted cable was removed from service. The capacity of the intertie would remain at 100 MW following the loss of the first cable. 4.4 Kenai Transmission Upgrades The transmission upgrades for the Kenai system that were evaluated include the following options:  Reconductor existing Diamond Ridge – Soldotna to 556 MCM  Add new 115 kV line from Bradley Lake to Quartz Creek  Add new 115 kV line from Bradley Lake to Soldotna  Add new 115 kV line from Soldotna to Quartz Creek  Add new 115 kV line from Quartz Creek to Dave’s Creek 4.5 Transmission Configurations The Kenai Tie, Southern Intertie, DC tie, and other HEA transmission upgrades were organized into groups of transmission configurations to be studied. The different configurations are listed below in Table 4.1 and were used for the power flow, transient contingency, and loss analysis parts of the study. Table 4.1 Transmission Configurations 1x x x 2x x x x 3x x x 4x x x x 5xx xx 6xx xx 7x xx 8x xx x 9x x x 10 x x x x 11 x x x 12 x x x x 13 x x x x 14 x x x 15 x x x 16 x x x x 17 x x x x x 18 x x x x x 19 x x x x x 20 x x x 21 x x x Trans   Config Kenai Tie Southern Intertie add 2nd   Bradley ‐ Quartz115 kV 230 kV 138 kV Kenai Transmission Upgrades add 2nd   Quartz ‐  Daves add 2nd   Bradley ‐  Soldotna upgrade  Soldotna ‐  Diamond add 2nd   Soldotna ‐  Quartz230 kV DC 5 Power flow Analysis Power flow analysis was run on all of the cases listed above. The contingencies consist of all 115 kV branches and associated transformers in the Kenai area as well as the ties connecting Alaska Energy Authority Kenai Transmission Study March 7, 2014 Page 6 the Kenai to Anchorage. The ratings used for the power flow contingency analysis are shown in Table 5.1 below. Table 5.1 Conductor Ratings Size Name Winter Summer 4/0 Penguin 88 50 556 ACSR Dove 173 96 795 ACSR Drake 220 120 Conductor Rating (MVA) The power flow contingency analysis was completed on only two of the generation cases for each load season. Generation Cases using the 2020 IOC generation capacity (Case B) and the 2020 IOC base case plus the 3rd Bradley Lake unit addition (Case C) were chosen due to the high Kenai export amounts and represent the worst case scenarios during power flow contingency analysis. No branch thermal overloads were found for the winter peak load season for either generation case and for all transmission configurations. Many branch thermal overloads for the summer peak and summer valley load seasons were found for both generation cases (Case B and Case C). Many contingencies for the different transmission configurations create thermal overloads due to the restricted summer ratings used for the conductors. Severe contingencies include loss of the ties between the Kenai and Anchorage and a loss of the transmission line between Bradley Lake and Soldotna. An outage of the new proposed ties from the Kenai to Anchorage (DC, Southern Intertie) will overload the existing Kenai tie. Upgrading the Kenai tie to 230 kV and adding new 115 kV transmission lines between Soldotna – Quartz Creek – Dave’s Creek eliminates the overload condition. Another severe contingency is an outage of the Soldotna – Bradley Lake line when Bradley Lake is at peak output. This outage will overload the remaining line sections, even if reconductored to 556 ACSR or if a 115 kV Bradley Lake – Quartz Creek line is added. A second Bradley Lake – Soldotna line is required to eliminate the overload condition. Detailed power flow results for the summer peak and summer valley cases are shown in Appendix C. Table 5.2 shows the summary of the power flow results. Transmission configurations highlighted in orange have thermal overloads for contingencies during the summer peak and summer valley load seasons. Note that an x in a cell denotes what upgrades are applicable for each different transmission configuration. Alaska Energy Authority Kenai Transmission Study March 7, 2014 Page 7 Table 5.2 Power Flow Results Summary 1x x x 2x x x x 3x x x 4x x x x 5xx xx 6xx xx 7x xx 8x xx x 9x x x 10 x x x x 11 x x x 12 x x x x 13 x x x x 14 x x x 15 x x x 16 x x x x 17 x x x x x 18 x x x x x 19 x x x x x 20 x x x 21 x x x xdenotes equipment upgrades / options transmission configurations with thermal  overloads 230  kV 138  kV 230  kV DC Trans   Config Kenai Tie Southern Intertie 115  kV Kenai Transmission Upgrades add 2nd   Bradley ‐ Quartz add 2nd   Quartz ‐  Daves add 2nd   Bradley  ‐  Soldotna upgrade  Soldotna  ‐  add 2nd   Soldotna  ‐ Quartz There are only 3 transmission configurations that produce no overloads for the summer peak and summer valley load seasons. This configurations are the Kenai Tie upgraded to 230 kV, with either the DC tie (transmission configuration 17) or the Southern Intertie operated at 138 kV or 230 kV (transmission configuration 18 or 19, respectively). These configurations assume that the Kenai transmission system includes new 115 kV transmission lines from Bradley Lake – Soldotna – Quartz Creek – Dave’s Creek. The results for the power flow analysis show no overloads for the winter peak load season. Since the thermal overloads are only for the summer peak and summer valley load seasons, redispatching generation to alleviate the overloads (reducing Kenai exports) is deemed an acceptable mitigation measure. 6 Loss Analysis Loss analysis was performed comparing the existing system to improved systems with Kenai Transmission upgrades and additions. Comparisons between the different cases were made by combining the losses for the line sections between Bradley Lake, University, and Pt. Woronzof (for the Southern Intertie cases). The winter peak cases were used for the loss analysis study. It is important to note that it is difficult to accurately determine losses of a DC line / system due to its complexity. Losses of 4% of power transfer were used to model the losses on the DC line. Table 6.1 shows the results from the loss analysis for Kenai export levels of 99 MW. Alaska Energy Authority Kenai Transmission Study March 7, 2014 Page 8 The results show that a large reduction in losses for transferring energy from the Kenai is found with the addition of the Southern Intertie (at 138 kV or at 230 kV) or a DC tie. The transmission configuration with the least amount of losses is with the existing tie operated at 230 kV, the Southern Intertie operated at 230 kV, a second Bradley – Soldotna line, a second Soldotna – Quartz Creek line, and a second Quartz Creek – Dave’s Creek line section (transmission configuration 4 and 19). These configurations have 6.6 and 6.3 MW of total losses, respectively. A comparison of cases with a second 115 kV Bradley Lake – Soldotna line versus reconductoring the Soldotna – Diamond Ridge line to 556 ACSR conductor can be made with the results. Adding the second Bradley Lake – Soldotna line reduces losses by about 2 MW in all cases compared to reconductoring the Soldotna – Diamond Ridge line. Table 6.1 Loss Analysis Results – 99 MW Export Comparisons %MW base x 25.0 0% 0.0 1x x x 7.6‐69% 17.3 2x x x x 7.5‐70% 17.5 3x x x 6.7‐73% 18.3 4x x x x 6.6‐73% 18.3 5xx xx 6.9‐72% 18.0 6xx xx 6.7‐73% 18.3 7x xx 9.9‐60% 15.1 8x xx x9.9‐60% 15.1 9x x x 9.6‐62% 15.4 10 x x x x 9.4 ‐62% 15.5 11 x x x 8.7 ‐65% 16.3 12 x x x x 8.6 ‐65% 16.3 13 x x x x 11.8 ‐53% 13.2 14 x x x 8.4 ‐66% 16.6 15 x x x 10.4 ‐58% 14.6 16 x x x x 8.3 ‐67% 16.7 17 x x x x x 7.9 ‐68% 17.0 18 x x x x x 6.7 ‐73% 18.3 19 x x x x x 6.3 ‐75% 18.7 20 x x x 7.2 ‐71% 17.8 21 x x x 8.1 ‐67% 16.8 Kenai Transmission Upgrades Total   Losses  (MW) Reduction in  LossesNew  Brad ‐  Qrtz 2nd   Qrtz ‐  Daves 2nd   Brad ‐  Sold Recd  Sold ‐  Dmnd 2nd   Sold ‐  Qrtz Current  Limits (99  MW) at  Daves  Creek ‐  Hope  115  kV line 115  kV 230  kV 138  kV 230  kV Kenai  Export  Levels Trans  Config Kenai  Tie Southern  Intertie DC The loss analysis was also completed with a Kenai export level of 125 MW, with results shown in Table 6.2. Note that the table shows the results sorted by losses, with transmission configurations with the least amount of losses located at the top. The results show a wide range of possible losses for the different transmission configurations (8.9 – 17.5 MW). To reduce the losses to a high degree requires a minimum of another tie to the Kenai (AC or DC), adding a second Soldotna – Bradley Lake 115 kV line, and adding a second Soldotna – Quartz Creek 115 kV line. Alaska Energy Authority Kenai Transmission Study March 7, 2014 Page 9 Table 6.2 Loss Analysis Results – 125 MW Export Comparisons 19 x x x x x 8.9 6xxxx 9.5 4x x x x9.6 3x x x 9.6 18 x x x x x 9.8 5 x x x x 10.1 20 x x x 10.6 17 x x x x x 10.7 2 x x x x 11.2 1 x x x 11.4 21 x x x 11.5 16 x x x x 12.3 12 x x x x 12.4 11 x x x 12.4 14 x x x 13.0 10 x x x x 13.9 9 x x x 14.1 8 x x x x 14.8 7 x x x 15.0 15 x x x 15.5 13 x x x x 17.5 Total   Losses   (MW) Trans  Config Kenai  Tie Southern  Intertie Kenai Transmission Upgrades Recd  Sold ‐  Dmnd 2nd   Sold ‐  Qrtz 115  kV 230  kV 138  kV New  Brad  ‐  Qrtz 2nd   Qrtz ‐  Daves 2nd   Brad ‐  Sold 230  kV DC 7 Stability Analysis Dynamic stability simulations were run to assess the transient impact of the proposed system improvements. Simulations of unit trip events and line fault and trip events were conducted. The simulations were used to evaluate the transfer limits of various system configurations as well as evaluate any impact of spinning reserve amounts and locations. A complete list of the disturbances used for stability analysis is shown in Appendix D. The stability results for all three seasonal cases show that when the Kenai tie is upgraded to 230 kV along with a second Dave’s Creek to Quartz Creek line and a Bradley Lake to Quartz Creek line section (transmission configuration 7), the system will go out of step for contingencies on the Soldotna - Sterling – Quartz line sections. Replacing the Bradley Lake to Quartz Creek line with a second line from Bradley Lake to Soldotna and a second line from Soldotna to Quartz Creek removes the unstable condition. The Bradley Lake – Quartz Creek line is not a recommended upgrade. The results for all three seasonal cases also show that reconductoring the Soldotna to Diamond Ridge transmission line to 556 ACSR “Dove” conductor results in unstable conditions for a fault and trip of the Bradley Lake – Soldotna line section. Reconductoring the line section is not a recommended upgraded. Adding a second Soldotna – Bradley Lake line section is the preferred alternative. Alaska Energy Authority Kenai Transmission Study March 7, 2014 Page 10 The results also show that a second 115 kV line from Soldotna – Quartz Creek is required to eliminate instabilities due to contingencies of the Southern Intertie or the DC tie. Detailed stability results for the winter peak, summer peak, and summer valley cases are shown Appendix E, F, and G, respectively. There are 7 transmission configurations that produce no instabilities for contingencies with the three seasonal cases. These configurations include a 2nd Bradley Lake – Soldotna line, a 2nd Soldotna – Quartz Creek line section, and either the Southern Intertie (138 kV or 230 kV) or the DC tie. Only transmission configuration case 8 has no other tie besides the Kenai tie upgraded to 230 kV. It is important to note that since transmission configuration 8 has only one tie between Anchorage and the Kenai, it is susceptible to islanding for single contingencies between Dave’s Creek and University. Table 7.1 shows the summary of the transient stability results. Transmission configurations highlighted in green exhibit instabilities during dynamic contingencies. Note that an x in a cell denotes what upgrades are applicable for each different transmission configuration. Table 7.1 Transient Stability Results Summary 1x x x 2x x x x 3x x x 4x x x x 5xx xx 6xx xx 7x xx 8x xx x 9x x x 10 x x x x 11 x x x 12 x x x x 13 x x x x 14 x x x 15 x x x 16 x x x x 17 x x x x x 18 x x x x x 19 x x x x x 20 x x x 21 x x x xdenotes equipment upgrades / options transmission configurations with stability issues single contingency  results  in islanding Trans   Config Kenai Tie Southern Intertie Kenai Transmission Upgrades 115  kV 230  kV 138  kV 230  kV DC add 2nd   Bradley ‐ Quartz add 2nd   Quartz ‐  Daves add 2nd   Bradley  ‐  Soldotna upgrade  Soldotna ‐ Diamond add 2nd   Soldotna ‐ Quartz 7.1 DC Size Analysis – Kenai Tie Trip The addition of the DC tie between Bernice and Beluga adds additional complexity to the Railbelt system. With the AC Southern Intertie options, a fault and trip of the Kenai Tie would Alaska Energy Authority Kenai Transmission Study March 7, 2014 Page 11 result in all available Kenai export energy flowing through the remaining AC Southern Intertie. Since the DC tie flows must be set and would be scheduled, the size of the DC line including overload capability was examined. This analysis was completed by scheduling the DC tie with an initial flow of 75 MW, then tripping the Kenai Tie open. The DC line flow was then increased until the Anchorage area did not load shed. The Kenai Tie was opened between the Dave’s Creek and Quartz Creek substations, which was deemed the worst case outage due to the load at Seward remaining connected to the Anchorage system and the generation at Cooper Lake remaining connected to the Kenai system. The results show that the DC line should have the capability of operating at 100 MW. Increasing the DC schedule from 75 MW to 100 MW eliminates load shedding that can occur if the DC schedule is not increased for a loss of the Kenai Tie with total Kenai Exports of around 127 MW. Detailed results are shown in Appendix H. 7.2 Kenai Tie Analysis – DC / Southern Intertie Trip The loss of the DC Tie or Southern Intertie is a severe outage on the Kenai system. The outage results in all exports off of the Kenai flowing through the Kenai Tie and can result in instabilities or unacceptable voltages on the Kenai Tie. 7.2.1 Kenai Tie Analysis – Transient Stability Transmission configurations with the existing Kenai Tie upgraded to 230 kV show no instability problems with the loss of the DC or Southern Intertie. The Kenai Tie upgrade to 230 kV was analyzed with 115 kV line additions from Soldotna – Quartz and Quartz – Dave’s Creek and without the 115 kV line additions. Analysis of the existing Kenai Tie (115 kV) was completed to determine what upgrades are required to survive the loss of the DC or Southern Intertie. The results show that in addition to the 2nd Bradley Lake – Soldotna 115 kV transmission line, the 2nd Soldotna – Quartz Creek 115 kV transmission line is also required. These transmission additions allow the export of energy off of the Kenai without problems during DC tie or Southern Intertie trip events. Detailed results are shown in Appendix I. 7.2.2 Kenai Tie Analysis – Power flow / Voltage The high transfer levels on the existing Kenai Tie (115 kV) due to an outage of the DC tie or the Southern Intertie were shown to be stable with the addition of the 2nd Bradley Lake – Soldotna and 2nd Soldotna – Quartz Creek 115 kV transmission lines. Further analysis was completed to determine if unacceptable voltages were found on the Kenai Tie and if the SVC’s at Dave’s Creek and Soldotna were not operating at their limits. The criteria used for unacceptable voltages were below 1.02 pu for the 24.9 kV buses at Portage or Girdwood. Load Tap Changer transformers (LTC) were modeled between the 115 kV and 24.9 kV bus locations to determine if the LTC would have enough steps to keep the 24.9 kV voltages acceptable (above 1.02 pu). A 10 MVAR reduction was placed on the SVC limits to model an appropriate operating margin for the Soldotna and Dave’s Creek SVC’s. The results show acceptable voltage performance for the 115 kV Kenai Tie with the addition of the 2nd Bradley Lake – Soldotna 115 kV line and the 2nd Soldotna – Quartz Creek 115 kV line. The results also show acceptable voltage performance when the Kenai Tie is upgraded to 230 kV with and without line additions to the Soldotna – Quartz – Dave’s Creek substations. The 230 kV Kenai Tie cases include the 2nd Bradley – Soldotna 115 kV line addition. Alaska Energy Authority Kenai Transmission Study March 7, 2014 Page 12 8 Cost Analysis Cost estimates for each of the proposed transmission upgrades are found in Appendix J. The possible transmission configurations were chosen based on the previous stability results as well as the costs associated with the individual projects. Comparing the costs of the Southern Intertie at 138 kV and 230 kV, the 230 kV option is a lot more expensive while providing nominal increases in transfer capability / reduction in losses. Therefore, the Southern Intertie option at 230 kV is not considered a viable option. Transmission configurations with the Soldotna – Diamond Ridge line upgraded or with the Bradley Lake – Quartz Creek line are not viable options due to instabilities that can occur with those transmission configurations. Upgrading the Kenai Tie to 230 kV without adding a Southern Intertie or a DC tie was deemed not feasible due to single contingencies on the Kenai Tie resulting in islanding of the Kenai from Anchorage. The possible transmission configurations include the addition of the 2nd 115 kV Bradley Lake – Soldotna line for all cases with possible upgrades to the existing Kenai Tie and additional ties into Anchorage (Southern Intertie and DC Intertie). Table 8.1 shows the possible transmission configuration specifics and the total costs. Table 8.1 Possible Transmission Configurations Low High 2 x x x x $321,665 $388,455 16 x x x x $241,415 $302,621 18 x x x x x $423,430 $490,220 20 xx x $362,990 $429,780 21 xxx $282,740 $343,946 17 x x x x x $343,180 $404,386 xdenotes upgrades / options for transmission configuration Total  Costs Range   (1000's)Trans  Config Kenai  Tie Southern  Intertie Kenai Transmission Upgrades add 2nd   Quartz ‐  Daves 115  kV DC add 2nd  Soldotna ‐  Quartz add 2nd  Bradley ‐  Soldotna 230  kV 138  kV The cost totals show a significant increase in costs for the 138 kV Southern Intertie options compared to the DC intertie option. The complex switching and energization requirements of both the 138 kV Kenai Intertie has increased the cost estimates considerably above prior studies. For purposes of budgetary estimates, we assumed 25% of the compensation requirements in the 138 kV option was fixed compensation. The ratio of fixed vs. variable compensation must be determined by detailed switching studies. These switching studies should consider the switching surges encountered during energizing/de-energization of the cables and reactors, the possibility of subsynchronous resonance, and the different methods of energization. Although feasible, the technical complexities of energizing a 120 MVAr submarine cable/reactor/SVC combination in an isolated electrical system would require specialized studies and would be considerably more complex than the existing system’s operation. The complexities of the switching and energization should be more fully developed prior to embarking on this technology in a limited system such as the Railbelt. The DC is the preferred intertie due to the technical challenges in operating and constructing the AC intertie and the associated high costs. Alaska Energy Authority Kenai Transmission Study March 7, 2014 Page 13 9 Recommendations The stability results and the cost analysis were used to create a list of more probable transmission configurations for the Kenai Transmission system. These cases are shown below in Table 9.1 with a cost comparison shown in Table 9.2. Table 9.1 Preferred Transmission Configurations 16 x x x x 21 xx x 17 x x x x x x denotes upgrades / options for transmission configuration Trans Config Kenai Tie Kenai Transmission Upgrades add 2nd  Quartz ‐  Daves115 kV add 2nd  Soldotna ‐  Quartz add 2nd   Bradley ‐  Soldotna230 kV DC  Intertie Table 9.2 Preferred Transmission Configurations - Costs Low High Low High 16 0 $134,550 $195,756 $57,865 $49,000 $241,415 $302,621 21 $85,525 $134,550 $195,756 $62,665 $282,740 $343,946 17 $85,525 $134,550 $195,756 $57,865 $49,000 $16,240 $343,180 $404,386 Add 2nd   Quartz ‐  Dave's DC Intertie Transmission Upgrades (1000's)Total  Costs Range   (1000's)Trans  Config Add 2nd   Soldotna ‐  Quartz 115  kV Add 2nd   Bradley ‐  Soldotna230 kV Kenai Tie   (1000's) Loss analysis was completed with varying Kenai export levels of 55 MW to 100 MW for the remaining transmission configurations, comparing the losses to the current 2020 year transmission system. Table 9.3 shows the results in tabular form while Figure 9.1 shows the results graphically. Note that the DC Intertie was assumed to schedule all exports up to a maximum value of 75 MW. The export value is the flow measured at the Dave’s Creek – Hope transmission line, from the Dave’s Creek end. The loss value includes the losses of all of the Kenai Transmission lines from Bradley Lake to University, as well as the transmission lines to the DC Intertie. It is assumed that the DC Intertie has losses that are equal to 4% of the energy flowing on the line. Alaska Energy Authority Kenai Transmission Study March 7, 2014 Page 14 Table 9.3 Preferred Transmission Configurations – Loss Comparisons 59.3 8.6 55.5 3.8 55.5 3.8 55.5 3.8 63.3 9.8 58.3 4.0 58.3 4.0 58.4 4.0 67.4 11.1 63.2 4.5 63.2 4.5 63.2 4.5 71.5 12.6 67.7 5.0 67.7 5.0 67.7 5.0 75.3 14.0 72.4 5.5 72.4 5.5 72.4 5.5 79.2 15.7 77.1 6.0 77.1 6.0 77.1 6.0 83.1 17.4 81.6 6.3 81.6 6.3 81.6 6.3 86.7 19.2 86.3 6.7 86.3 6.7 86.4 6.7 90.5 21.2 91.0 7.2 91.0 7.1 91.1 7.0 94.8 23.7 95.4 7.7 95.3 7.6 95.4 7.5 99.8 27.0 100.0 8.3 99.8 8.1 100.1 7.9 Transmission Configuration Export  (MW) Loss  (MW) Base #16 #21 #17 Loss   (MW) Export  (MW) Export  (MW) Loss  (MW) Export  (MW) Loss   (MW) Figure 9.1 Kenai Export Loss Analysis The results show a significant reduction in losses with the addition of the DC intertie and / or the Kenai Tie upgraded to 230 kV. The results also show minimal increased reduction in losses with the Kenai Tie upgraded to 230 kV and the DC tie added (transmission configuration 17) compared to the other upgraded configurations. Configuration 17 is not recommended since the cost is approximately $100 million more than the DC line addition (transmission configuration 16). Alaska Energy Authority Kenai Transmission Study March 7, 2014 Page 15 The two recommended transmission configurations are the as follows: #16 - DC intertie with 2nd Bradley – Soldotna and 2nd Soldotna – Quartz Creek 115 kV line #21 - DC intertie with 2nd Bradley – Soldotna 115 kV line and Kenai Tie upgraded to 230 kV 9.1 N-1-1 Analysis – Recommended Transmission Configurations Double contingency analysis (N-1-1) was completed on the two recommended transmission configurations to determine the transfer capability limit of the Kenai system with the loss of the DC Intertie. Fault and trips of the Soldotna SVC transformer and the Soldotna – Diamond Ridge 115 kV line were used to determine the Kenai response due to contingencies and the associated transfer limits for the different cases. Four different generation dispatches were used to test the two recommended transmission configurations for each of the three load seasons (summer peak, summer valley, and winter peak). The dispatches are listed below:  B – Full Cooper Lake and Bradley Lake export  C – Full Cooper Lake and Bradley Lake (with 3rd unit) export  C1 - Full Cooper Lake and Bradley Lake (with 3rd unit), Nikiski offline  C2 - Full Bradley Lake (with 3rd unit), Nikiski offline, Bernice offline, Cooper Lake offline Bradley Lake generation plant output was reduced in 5 MW increments for cases that resulted in transient instabilities till a stable response was found. The N-1-1 Kenai Export limits are listed in Tables 9.4 for transmission configurations 16 and 21. Note that the green shaded cells are cases that have Kenai Export limits due to Bradley Lake and Cooper Lake maximum output. Cells with red text are cases that must be restricted due to contingencies. The amount of Bradley Lake excess capacity due to the restriction is also listed in the table. The results show that the two recommended transmission configurations have similar (+/- 5 MW) Kenai Export limits due to contingencies with the DC line out of service. The results also show that turning off Nikiski and Bernice generation and increasing Soldotna generation reduces the Kenai Export limits by about 20 MW. Table 9.4 N-1-1 Kenai Export Limits - Recommend Transmission Configurations b 108 106 103 c 123 120 114 ‐5 c1 111 ‐15 113 ‐10 102 ‐20 c2 98 ‐20 92 ‐5 75 b 104 102 100 c 118 115 113 c1 115 ‐5 112 ‐5 106 ‐10 c2 94 ‐20 88 ‐568‐5 Kenia Export limited by generation red values ‐ Kenai  Export limited by stability Excess  Brad  (MW) 16 21 Trans  Config Gen   Case Kenai  Export  (MW) Excess  Brad  (MW) Kenai  Export  (MW) Excess  Brad  (MW) Kenai  Export  (MW) Summer Valley Summer Peak Winter Peak Alaska Energy Authority Kenai Transmission Study March 7, 2014 Page 16 10 Conclusions The northern utilities will be adversely impacted following the addition of Kenai area and northern generation additions in 2015. Losses for Bradley Lake energy will increase significantly over historic levels. Portions of Bradley Lake’s capacity will be unavailable to northern utilities during much of the year and increases in Bradley Lake capacity will not be possible. A project to reconstruct the 115 kV Diamond Ridge – Soldotna transmission line from 4/0 was evaluated against the construction of a new 115 kV Bradley Lake – Soldotna transmission line but is not recommended due to its higher costs. The Diamond Ridge reconstruction is a significantly longer project at a higher cost/mile due to distribution underbuild, shorter spans, and working around energized facilities. In addition to the higher costs, simulations indicate that the reconductored Diamond Ridge – Soldotna line cannot provide unconstrained operation of the Bradley Lake project. Operation of Bradley Lake at high generation levels or the installation of a 3rd turbine with the new generation requires a new 115 kV Bradley Lake – Soldotna transmission line in addition to the two existing 115 kV lines. A newly identified alternative of constructing a 100 kV HVDC tie between Beluga and Bernice Lake in conjunction with a new 115 kV Bradley Lake-Soldotna line and new 115 kV Soldotna – Quartz Creek line appears to be the most economical and technically feasible solution. We recommend the 100 kV HVDC Beluga – Bernice alternative be fully evaluated and if substantiated, it coupled with the construction of a new Bradley Lake – Soldotna 115 kV line. Additional Kenai transmission upgrades recommended are either a new Soldotna – Quartz Creek 115 kV line or upgrading the Kenai Tie to 230 kV. Alaska Energy Authority Kenai Transmission Study March 7, 2014 Page 17 Appendix A – Load Analysis (MW) IOC versus RIRP Table A.1 2020 Seasonal Base Case Load from IOC Season CEA GVEA HEA MEA ML&P SES Total WP 229 283.3 98.7 186 219.9 11.9 1028.8 SP 159.3 224.6 67.4 116.2 210.4 10.3 788.2 SV 98.3 127.4 45.7 67.5 113.1 7.7 459.7 Table A.2 RIRP Winter Peak Loads Year CEA GVEA HEA MEA ML&P SES GRETC 2011 234 238 87 146 188 10 869 2015 235 218 89 157 192 10 868 2020 238 226 92 167 197 10 896 2025 242 234 96 178 202 10 928 2030 247 243 100 188 207 10 959 2035 252 252 104 199 212 10 991 2040 256 260 108 210 217 10 1024 2045 261 269 112 222 223 10 1058 2050 266 278 117 234 228 10 1092 2055 271 288 121 247 233 10 1127 2060 276 297 125 260 239 10 1163 Table A.3 RIRP Summer Peak Loads Year CEA GVEA HEA MEA ML&P SES GRETC 2011 161 191 75 91 167 10 668 2015 161 175 77 96 171 11 667 2020 163 182 79 95 175 11 689 2025 166 188 83 100 180 11 713 2030 170 195 86 106 184 11 737 2035 173 202 90 113 189 11 762 2040 176 209 93 119 193 11 787 2045 180 216 97 126 198 12 813 2050 183 224 101 134 203 12 839 2055 186 231 104 141 207 12 866 2060 190 239 108 149 212 13 894 Table A.4 RIRP Summer Valley Loads Year CEA GVEA HEA MEA ML&P SES GRETC 2011 95 89 44 53 91 4 414 2015 96 81 46 57 93 5 414 2020 97 84 47 61 95 5 427 2025 99 87 49 65 98 5 441 20301019051691005456 20351039453731035471 20401059755771055486 2045 107 100 57 81 108 5 502 2050 109 104 60 85 110 5 518 2055 111 107 62 90 113 5 534 2060 113 111 64 95 115 5 551 Alaska Energy Authority Kenai Transmission Study March 7, 2014 Page 18 Appendix B – Generation Dispatches The specifics of the different generation configuration dispatches for the three seasonal cases are shown in the tables below. Table B.1 shows the generation dispatches for the base cases and for cases with the 3rd Bradley Lake unit online. Table B.2 shows the generation dispatches for the cases the 3rd Bradley Lake unit online, as well as the sensitivity cases based off of the original case. Table B.3 shows the generation dispatches for the cases with Watana online and no other generation additions. Table B.4 shows the generation dispatches for the cases with Watana and the 3rd Bradley Lake unit online. Alaska Energy Authority Kenai Transmission Study March 7, 2014 Page 19 Table B.1 Generation Dispatch – Base, Upgrades, and 3rd Bradley Lake sv sp wp sv sp wp sv sp wp WILSONB000000000 Soldotna G2 2 17 14 BRADLY 1G1454545606060474747 BRADLY 2G2454545606060474747 BRADLY 3G3 474747 TESORO1G1144144144 TESORO1G2144144144 NIKI GEN 1 39 36 43 30 34 43 20 32 43 Nikiski ST 2 14 18 8 13 18 PLNT1‐2G2 2832 2830 2825 PLNT1‐3G3 3228302825 Plant 2 9G9 3645 3645 3645 Plant 2 10G 10 36 45 36 45 40 36 45 Plant 2 11G 11 20 25 20 25 11 20 25 SPP G1 1 51 45 57 30 39 59 42 59 SPP G2 2 51 45 57 47 46 59 45 42 59 SPP G3 3 38 45 47 43 36 57 47 42 51 SPP G4 4 22 21 25 14 18 27 14 19 27 COOP1&2G  1 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 COOP1&2G 2 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 EKLUT 1G1181819181919191919 EKLUT 2G2181819181919191919 Eklutna #11171717 Eklutna #12171717 Eklutna #2 3 17 10 17 17 Eklutna #24 1017 1717 17 Eklutna #25 1717 1717 1717 Eklutna #36 1717 1717 1717 Eklutna #37171717 1717 1717 Eklutna #38171717171717 1717 Eklutna #49171717171717171717 Eklutna #4 10 17 17 17 13 17 17 17 17 17 HCCP#2‐G 2 61 60 60 60 61 61 HLP#1‐G 1 26 28 28 26 NPOLESUB 1 39 64 64 39 64 NPOLESUB 2 4064 4064 4064 NPCC 1 3 40 33 53 40 33 53 43 33 53 NPCC 2 4 10 7 12 10 7 12 10 7 12 99 99 96 111 109 108 126 125 122 450 786 1035 450 786 1035 450 786 1035 32 35 36 18 29 28 23 26 31 482 821 1076 468 814 1063 472 825 1065 11074919180859268102 Total  Load Generator  Name ID Kenai Transfer Total  Losses Total  Generation Total  Spin ABC Base  Case  With  Current Limits Trans upgrades, No  gen upgrades 3rd  Bradley Lake Alaska Energy Authority Kenai Transmission Study March 7, 2014 Page 20 Table B.2 Generation Dispatch - 3rd Bradley Lake - Sensitivity sv sp wp sv sp wp sv sp wp WILSONB000000000 Soldotna G22 14284049404049 BRADLY 1G1474747474747474747 BRADLY 2G2474747474747474747 BRADLY 3G3474747474747474747 TESORO1G1144144144 TESORO1G2144144144 NIKI GEN 1 20 32 43 Nikiski ST 2 8 13 18 Bernice 22 7 Bernice 33 27 PLNT1‐2G2 2825 2825 2832 PLNT1‐3G3 2825 2825 2832 PLNT2‐5G 5 20 37 Plant 2 9G9 3645 3645 3645 Plant 2 10G 10 40 36 45 40 36 45 40 36 45 Plant 2 11G 11 11 20 25 11 20 25 11 21 25 SPP G1 1 42 59 42 59 45 59 SPP G2 2 45 42 59 45 42 59 45 45 59 SPP G3 3 47 42 51 47 42 51 51 20 44 SPP G4 4 14 19 27 14 19 27 14 24 27 COOP1&2G  1 10 10 10 10 10 10 COOP1&2G 2 10 10 10 10 10 10 EKLUT 1G1191919191919191919 EKLUT 2G2191919191919191919 Eklutna #11171717 Eklutna #12171717 Eklutna #23171717 Eklutna #24171717 Eklutna #25 1717 1717 1717 Eklutna #36 1717 1717 1717 Eklutna #37 1717 1717 1717 Eklutna #38 1717 1717 1717 Eklutna #49171717171717171717 Eklutna #4 10 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 HCCP#2‐G 2 61 61 61 61 61 61 NPOLESUB1 3964 3964 3964 NPOLESUB 2 4064 4064 4064 NPCC 1 3 43 33 53 43 33 53 43 33 53 NPCC 2 4 10 7 12 10 7 12 10 7 12 126 125 122 127 124 123 118 99 77 450 786 1035 450 786 1035 450 786 1035 23 26 31 23 26 31 23 26 31 472 825 1065 472 826 1066 469 810 1064 9268102455253417244 Total  Generation Total  Spin Total  Load Total  Losses CC1C2 3rd  Bradley Lake 3rd  Bradley Lake, Nikiski  offline 3rd  Brad; Nikiski,Cooper,  Bernice offline Generator  Name ID Kenai Transfer Alaska Energy Authority Kenai Transmission Study March 7, 2014 Page 21 Table B.3 Generation Dispatch - Watana and no 3rd Bradley Lake sv sp wp sv sp wp sv sp wp WILSONB000000000 BRADLY 1G1606060606060474747 BRADLY 2G2606060606060474747 BRADLY 3G 3 47 47 47 TESORO1G1144144144 TESORO1G2144144144 NIKI GEN 1 5 7 10 0 PLNT1‐2G 2 8 20 20 31 PLNT1‐3G 3 30 Plant 2 9G 9 35 44 Plant 2 10G 10 40 35 44 Plant 2 11G 11 11 19 24 SPP G1 1 37 40 SPP G2 2 50 12 37 40 57 SPP G3 3 14 28 6 25 31 26 37 SPP G4 4 515 61561224 COOP1&2G  1 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 COOP1&2G 2 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 EKLUT 1G122821118128 EKLUT 2G232431118124 Susitna 1 1 100 200 200 100 200 200 67 100 100 Susitna 2 2 100 200 200 100 200 200 67 100 100 Susitna 3 3 100 200 200 100 200 200 67 100 100 HCCP#2‐G 2 60 60 60 HLP#1‐G1 28 NPOLESUB 1 60 NPOLESUB 2 5015554064 NPCC 1 3 16 30 53 15 15 53 25 33 53 NPCC 2 44 71247126 712 81 61 30 81 67 37 99 89 49 450 786 1035 450 786 1035 450 786 1035 15 29 33 15 29 35 16 22 25 467 815 1067 466 815 1070 467 808 1060 393 117 128 395 218 212 473 399 410 Total  Generation Total  Spin DEF Watana Watana 3rd  Bradley Full,  Watana Reduced Generator  Name ID Kenai Transfer Total  Load Total  Losses Alaska Energy Authority Kenai Transmission Study March 7, 2014 Page 22 Table B.4 Generation Dispatch - Watana and the 3rd Bradley Lake sv sp wp sv sp wp WILSONB000000 BRADLY 1G1202020202020 BRADLY 2G2202020202020 BRADLY 3G3202020202020 TESORO1G1144144 TESORO1G2144144 NIKI GEN 1 13 10 32 Nikiski ST 2 13 PLNT1‐2G 2 27 Plant 2 10G 10 40 35 Plant 2 11G 11 11 10 SPP G1 1 37 SPP G2 2 42 56 33 37 SPP G3 3 20 24 40 15 22 29 SPP G4 4 3131751017 COOP1&2G  1 10 10 10 10 7 10 COOP1&2G 2 10 10 10 10 7 10 EKLUT 1G18282212 EKLUT 2G28242212 Susitna 1 1 100 200 200 100 200 200 Susitna 2 2 100 200 200 100 200 200 Susitna 3 3 100 200 200 100 200 200 HCCP#2‐G 2 60 24 50 NPOLESUB 264 NPCC 1 3 30 33 53 43 20 53 NPCC 2 48 7 12 10 7 12 26 6 ‐13 26 11 19 450 786 1035 450 786 1035 8243192429 459 810 1066 458 811 1064 428 114 141 429 211 213 GH 3rd  Bradley   Reduced, Watana  3rd  Bradley   Reduced, Watana  Kenai Transfer Total  Load Total  Losses Total  Generation Total  Spin Generator  Name ID Alaska Energy Authority Kenai Transmission Study March 7, 2014 Page 23 Alaska Energy Authority Kenai Transmission Study March 7, 2014 Page 24 Appendix C – Power Flow Results Table C.1 Power flow – Summer Peak – Case B – Bradley and Cooper Export from bus to bus id from bus to bus id 1 2 Soldotna Tesoro 1 Nikiski Bernice 1 108 Tesoro Bernice 1 Nikiski Bernice 1 103 Nikiski Bernice 1 Soldotna Tesoro 1 101 Soldotna Tesoro 1 Nikiski Bernice 1 104 Tesoro Bernice 1 Nikiski Bernice 1 100 5 6 Soldotna Sterling 1 Bradley Quartz 1 113 Sterling Quartz 1 Bradley Quartz 1 111 Bradley Quartz 1 Daves Quartz 1 Daves Quartz 2 125 Soldotna Sterling 1 Soldotna Quartz 1 108 Sterling Quartz 1 Soldotna Quartz 1 106 Soldotna Quartz 1 Daves Quartz 1 Daves Quartz 2 125 Soldotna Bradley 1 Soldotna Bradley 1 Soldotna Bradley 1 Soldotna Tesoro 1 Nikiski Bernice 1 107 Nikiski Bernice 1 Soldotna Tesoro 1 102 Soldotna Bradley 1 Soldotna Tesoro 1 Nikiski Bernice 1 103 Soldotna Bradley 1 Soldotna Sterling 1 Soldotna Quartz 1 106 Soldotna Quartz 1 Daves Quartz 1 Daves Quartz 2 122 14 Soldotna Bradley 1 16 17 18 19 20 21 cases with minimal or no branch overloads outage of line produces overload on remaining line no branch overloads no branch overloads no branch overloads B ‐  Cooper  and  Bradley  Lake  at  full  export  (109  MW) Southern Tie  138 kV Soldotna ‐ Daves (max 124%, Daves ‐ Quartz) DC Tie Soldotna ‐ Daves (max 124%, Daves ‐ Quartz) 12 Southern Tie  230 kV University ‐Quartz(max  123%,Daves ‐Quartz) Soldotna‐Diamond‐Fritz(124% Brad‐Fritz) Soldotna‐Diamond ‐Fritz Bradley‐Soldotna max, 124% 11 Southern Tie  230 kV University ‐Soldotna(max 121%,Daves ‐Quartz) Soldotna‐Diamond‐Fritz(124% Brad‐Fritz) Soldotna‐Diamond ‐Fritz Bradley‐Soldotna max, 124% Soldotna‐Diamond‐Fritz(124% Brad‐Fritz) Soldotna‐Diamond ‐Fritz Bradley‐Soldotna max, 121% Southern Tie  138 kV University ‐Quartz(max  122%,Daves ‐Quartz) 7 Southern Tie  138 kV overload %gen  disp trans  config outage overload (s) Solodtna‐Ster‐Quartz (108%, Soldotna‐Sterling 9 Soldotna‐Diamond‐Fritz(124% Brad‐Fritz) Soldotna‐Diamond ‐Fritz Bradley‐Soldotna max, 121% Southern Tie  138 kV University ‐Soldotna(max 121%,Daves ‐Quartz) 10 DC Tie University ‐Quartz(max  124%,Daves ‐Quartz) no branch overloads Southern Tie  230 kV 4 Southern Tie  230 kV Southern Tie  138 kV 3 8 University ‐Soldotna(max 124%,Daves ‐Quartz) University ‐Quartz(max  124%,Daves ‐Quartz) University ‐Soldotna(max 124%,Daves ‐Quartz) University ‐Quartz(max  124%,Daves ‐Quartz) Soldotna‐Quartz(max  104%,Soldotna ‐Sterling) no branch overloads Soldotna‐Diamond‐Fritz(124% Brad‐Fritz) Soldotna‐Diamond ‐Fritz Bradley‐Soldotna max, 121% Solodtna‐Ster‐Quartz (106%, Soldotna‐Sterling 13 DC Tie University ‐Soldotna(max 124%,Daves ‐Quartz) DC Tie University ‐Soldotna(max 121%,Daves ‐Quartz)15 Soldotna‐Diamond‐Fritz(141% Brad‐Fritz) Alaska Energy Authority Kenai Transmission Study March 7, 2014 Page 25 Table C.2 Power flow – Summer Peak – Case C – 3rd Bradley Lake Unit added from bus to bus id from bus to bus id Soldotna Tesoro 1 Nikiski Bernice 1 103 Daves Cr Quartz 1 Nikiski Bernice 1 100 Daves Cr Quartz 1 Nikiski Bernice 1 100 Soldotna Tesoro 1 Nikiski Bernice 1 118 Tesoro Bernice 1 Nikiski Bernice 1 113 Nikiski Bernice 1 Daves Cr Quartz 1 Nikiski Bernice 1 103 Soldotna Tesoro 1 Nikiski Bernice 1 114 Tesoro Bernice 1 Nikiski Bernice 1 109 Nikiski Bernice 1 Daves Cr Quartz 1 Nikiski Bernice 1 103 5 Soldotna Bradley 1 6 Soldotna Bradley 1 Soldotna Sterling 1 Bradley Quartz 1 137 Sterling Quartz 1 Bradley Quartz 1 134 Bradley Quartz 1 Daves Quartz 1 Daves Quartz 2 141 Soldotna Sterling 1 Soldotna Quartz 1 124 Sterling Quartz 1 Soldotna Quartz 1 122 Soldotna Quartz 1 Daves Quartz 1 Daves Quartz 2 141 Soldotna Bradley 1 Soldotna Tesoro 1 Nikiski Bernice 1 101 Soldotna Bradley 1 Soldotna Bradley 1 Soldotna Tesoro 1 Nikiski Bernice 1 116 Nikiski Bernice 1 Soldotna Tesoro 1 109 Nikiski Bernice 1 Tesoro Bernice 1 104 Daves Quartz 1 Nikiski Bernice 1 102 Soldotna Bradley 1 Soldotna Tesoro 1 Nikiski Bernice 1 112 Tesoro Bernice 1 Nikiski Bernice 1 107 Nikiski Bernice 1 Soldotna Tesoro 1 104 Soldotna Bradley 1 Soldotna Sterling 1 Soldotna Quartz 1 121 Soldotna Quartz 1 Daves Quartz 1 Daves Quartz 2 138 14 Soldotna Bradley 1 Soldotna Tesoro 1 Nikiski Bernice 1 100 16 17 18 19 Nikiski Bernice 1 Soldotna Tesoro 1 102 Nikiski Bernice 1 Soldotna Tesoro 1 100 21 line with 50 MVA  rating cases with minimal or no branch overloads outage of line produces overload on remaining line Southern Tie  138 kV University ‐Soldotna(max 137%,Daves‐Quartz) C‐   Cooper  and  Bradley  Lake  with  3rd   Bradley  unit at full  export  (125 MW) 20 Southern Tie Soldotna ‐ Daves (max 140%, Daves ‐ Quartz) DC Tie Soldotna ‐ Daves (max 140%, Daves ‐ Quartz) University ‐Soldotna(max 137%,Daves‐Quartz) Soldotna‐Diamond‐Fritz(147% Brad‐Fritz) 8 Solodtna‐Ster‐Quartz (123%, Soldotna‐Sterling 9 Soldotna‐Diamond‐Fritz(141% Brad‐Fritz) no branch overloads no branch overloads Soldotna‐Diamond‐Fritz(149% Brad‐Fritz) Soldotna‐Diamond‐Fritz Bradley‐Soldotna max, 141% Solodtna‐Ster‐Quartz (121%, Soldotna‐Sterling Soldotna‐Diamond‐Fritz(149% Brad‐Fritz) Soldotna‐Diamond‐Fritz Bradley‐Soldotna max, 141% Southern Tie  138 kV 1 Southern Tie  138 kV Soldotna‐Diamond‐Fritz Bradley‐Soldotna max, 141%12 10 Soldotna‐Diamond‐Fritz(148% Brad‐Fritz) Soldotna‐Diamond‐Fritz Bradley‐Soldotna max, 141% Southern Tie  138 kV University‐Quartz(max 138%,Daves ‐Quartz) Southern Tie  230 kV Soldotna‐Bernice(max 106%,Soldotna‐Tesoro) 2 University‐Quartz(max 141%,Daves ‐Quartz) Bradley‐Soldotna max, 148% 11 13 Southern Tie  230 kV gen disp trans  config outage overload (s)overload % University‐Quartz(max 138%,Daves ‐Quartz) Soldotna‐Diamond‐Fritz(148% Brad‐Fritz) 4 Soldotna‐Quartz(max 119%,Soldotna‐Sterling)7 University ‐Soldotna(max 140%,Daves‐Quartz) Soldotna‐Bernice(max 111%,Soldotna‐Tesoro) DC Tie University‐Quartz(max 141%,Daves ‐Quartz) 15 DC Tie University ‐Soldotna(max 140%,Daves‐Quartz) DC Tie University ‐Soldotna(max 137%,Daves‐Quartz) University ‐Soldotna(max 140%,Daves‐Quartz) Southern Tie  230 kV Thompson‐Diamond(max 117%,Anchor‐Diamond) University‐Quartz(max 141%,Daves ‐Quartz) Thompson‐Diamond(max 114%,Anchor‐Diamond) 3 Southern Tie  230 kV Soldotna‐Diamond‐Fritz Alaska Energy Authority Kenai Transmission Study March 7, 2014 Page 26 Table C.3 Power flow – Summer Valley – Case B – Bradley and Cooper Export from bus to bus id from bus to bus id 1 2 Nikiski Bernice 1 Soldotna Tesoro 1 103 Soldotna Tesoro 1 Nikiski Bernice 1 105 Soldotna Tesoro 1 Nikiski Bernice 1 100 5 Soldotna Bradley 1 Anchor Pt. Diamond 1 101 6 Soldotna Bradley 1 Anchor Pt. Diamond 1 103 Soldotna Sterling 1 Bradley Quartz 1 112 Sterling Quartz 1 Bradley Quartz 1 110 Bradley Quartz 1 Daves Quartz 1 Daves Quartz 2 124 Soldotna Sterling 1 Soldotna Quartz 1 112 Sterling Quartz 1 Soldotna Quartz 1 110 Soldotna Quartz 1 Daves Quartz 1 Daves Quartz 2 124 Soldotna Bradley 1 Soldotna Bradley 1 Soldotna Bradley 1 Soldotna Tesoro 1 Nikiski Bernice 1 107 Nikiski Bernice 1 Soldotna Tesoro 1 104 Soldotna Bradley 1 Soldotna Tesoro 1 Nikiski Bernice 1 102 Soldotna Bradley 1 Soldotna Sterling 1 Soldotna Quartz 1 105 Soldotna Quartz 1 Soldotna Tesoro 1 Nikiski Bernice 1 103 Daves Quartz 1 Daves Quartz 2 122 14 Soldotna Bradley 1 16 17 18 19 20 21 line with 50 MVA  rating cases with minimal  or no branch overloads outage of line produces overload on remaining line B ‐  Cooper  and  Bradley  Lake  at  full  export  (111  MW) Southern Tie  138 kV Soldotna ‐ Daves (max 123%, Daves ‐ Quartz) DC Tie Soldotna ‐ Daves (max 123%, Daves ‐ Quartz) 12 University ‐Soldotna(max  120%,Daves ‐Quartz)Southern Tie  138 kV 9 Soldotna‐Diamond‐Fritz(124% Brad‐Fritz) Bradley‐Soldotna max, 121% Southern Tie  138 kV University ‐Quartz(max  122%,Daves ‐Quartz) 11 Southern Tie  230 kV 10 Solodtna‐Ster‐Quartz (107%, Soldotna‐Sterling Soldotna‐Diamond‐Fritz(124% Brad‐Fritz) Southern Tie  230 kV University ‐Soldotna(max  120%,Daves ‐Quartz) 8 Soldotna‐Diamond‐Fritz Soldotna‐Diamond‐Fritz Bradley‐Soldotna max, 120% University ‐Quartz(max  124%,Daves ‐Quartz) Soldotna‐Quartz(max  103%,Soldotna‐Sterling) University ‐Quartz(max  124%,Daves ‐Quartz) Southern Tie  138 kV Soldotna‐Diamond‐Fritz(124% Brad‐Fritz) Soldotna‐Diamond‐Fritz Bradley‐Soldotna max, 121% University ‐Quartz(max  122%,Daves ‐Quartz) Soldotna‐Diamond‐Fritz(124% Brad‐Fritz) Soldotna‐Diamond‐Fritz Bradley‐Soldotna max, 121% no branch overloads no branch overloads no branch overloads 13 Soldotna‐Diamond‐Fritz(121% Brad‐Fritz) 7 outage Southern Tie  230 kV Southern Tie  138 kV 4 Southern Tie  230 kV 3 University ‐Soldotna(max  123%,Daves ‐Quartz) overload  % gen  disp trans  config overload (s) University ‐Soldotna(max  124%,Daves ‐Quartz) Soldotna‐Diamond‐Fritz Bradley‐Soldotna max, 121% Solodtna‐Ster‐Quartz (105%, Soldotna‐Sterling Soldotna‐Diamond‐Fritz(124% Brad‐Fritz) DC Tie University ‐Soldotna(max  124%,Daves ‐Quartz) 15 DC Tie University ‐Soldotna(max  120%,Daves ‐Quartz) DC Tie University ‐Quartz(max  124%,Daves ‐Quartz) Alaska Energy Authority Kenai Transmission Study March 7, 2014 Page 27 Table C.4 Power flow – Summer Valley – Case C – 3rd Bradley Lake Unit added from bus to bus id from bus to bus id Soldotna Tesoro 1 Nikiski Bernice 1 103 2 Soldotna Tesoro 1 Nikiski Bernice 1 122 Tesoro Bernice 1 Nikiski Bernice 1 115 Nikiski Bernice 1 Soldotna Tesoro 1 Nikiski Bernice 1 117 Tesoro Bernice 1 Nikiski Bernice 1 110 Nikiski Bernice 1 5 Soldotna Bradley 1 6 Soldotna Bradley 1 Soldotna Sterling 1 Bradley Quartz 1 135 Soldotna Bradley 1 Anchor Pt Diamond 1 103 Sterling Quartz 1 Bradley Quartz 1 133 Bradley Quartz 1 Daves Quartz 1 Daves Quartz 2 140 Soldotna Sterling 1 Soldotna Quartz 1 123 Sterling Quartz 1 Soldotna Quartz 1 121 Soldotna Quartz 1 Daves Quartz 1 Daves Quartz 2 140 Soldotna Bradley 1 Soldotna Tesoro 1 Nikiski Bernice 1 101 Soldotna Bradley 1 Soldotna Bradley 1 Soldotna Tesoro 1 Nikiski Bernice 1 120 Nikiski Bernice 1 Soldotna Tesoro 1 114 Nikiski Bernice 1 Tesoro Bernice 1 107 Soldotna Bradley 1 Soldotna Tesoro 1 Nikiski Bernice 1 116 Tesoro Bernice 1 Nikiski Bernice 1 110 Nikiski Bernice 1 Soldotna Tesoro 1 110 Nikiski Bernice 1 Tesoro Bernice 1 103 Soldotna Bradley 1 Soldotna Sterling 1 Soldotna Quartz 1 120 Soldotna Quartz 1 Soldotna Tesoro 1 Nikiski Bernice 1 118 Daves Quartz 1 Daves Quartz 2 137 14 Soldotna Bradley 1 16 17 18 19 Nikiski Bernice 1 Soldotna Tesoro 1 102 20 21 line with 50 MVA  rating cases with minimal or no branch overloads outage of line produces overload on remaining line 13 Soldotna‐Diamond‐Fritz(149% Brad‐Fritz) Soldotna‐Diamond‐Fritz Bradley ‐Soldotna max, 141% Solodtna‐Ster‐Quartz (120%, Soldotna‐Sterling 12 Southern Tie  230 kV University ‐Quartz(max 140%,Daves‐Quartz) Soldotna‐Diamond‐Fritz(148% Brad‐Fritz) Soldotna‐Diamond‐Fritz Bradley ‐Soldotna max, 141% Soldotna‐Diamond‐Fritz(148% Brad‐Fritz) Soldotna‐Diamond‐Fritz Bradley ‐Soldotna max, 141% University ‐Quartz(max 137%,Daves‐Quartz) Southern Tie  230 kV University ‐Soldotna(max 136%,Daves ‐Quartz) Soldotna‐Diamond‐Fritz(148% Brad‐Fritz) Soldotna‐Diamond‐Fritz Soldotna‐Diamond‐Fritz(141% Brad‐Fritz) no branch overloads Southern Tie  138 kV no branch overloads Southern Tie  138 kV Soldotna ‐ Daves (max 139%, Daves ‐ Quartz) DC Tie Bradley ‐Soldotna max, 141% University ‐Soldotna(max 136%,Daves ‐Quartz) Soldotna‐Bernice(max  110%,Soldotna‐Tesoro) Bradley ‐Soldotna max, 141% 4 Southern Tie 10 Soldotna‐Diamond‐Fritz(148% Brad‐Fritz) Soldotna‐Diamond‐Fritz 9 11 8 Solodtna‐Ster‐Quartz (123%, Soldotna‐Sterling Southern Tie  138 kV Thompson‐Diamond(max  119%,Anchor ‐Diamond) gen disp trans  config outage overload (s) overload  % 3 Southern Tie  230 kV Soldotna‐Bernice(max  115%,Soldotna‐Tesoro) University ‐Quartz(max 140%,Daves‐Quartz) University ‐Soldotna(max 139%,Daves ‐Quartz) C ‐    Cooper  and  Bradley  Lake  with  3rd  Bradley  unit at full  export  (126 MW) Soldotna ‐ Daves (max 139%, Daves ‐ Quartz) DC Tie University ‐Quartz(max 140%,Daves‐Quartz) DC Tie University ‐Soldotna(max 140% ,Daves‐Quartz) 15 DC Tie University ‐Soldotna(max 136%,Daves ‐Quartz) 7 Southern Tie  138 kV Soldotna‐Diamond(max  121%,Anchor‐Diamond) Soldotna‐Quartz(max  118%,Soldotna‐Sterling) University ‐Quartz(max  140%,Daves  ‐Quartz) University ‐Soldotna(max 140% ,Daves‐Quartz) Southern Tie  138 kV 1 Alaska Energy Authority Kenai Transmission Study March 7, 2014 Page 28 Appendix D – Transient Analysis Contingency List Table D.1 Stability Contingency List Near Far a1 Bradley‐Soldotna 115 Soldotna 5 5 a2 Bradley‐Soldotna 115 Brad_Lk 5 5 a3 Soldotna‐Sterling 115 Soldotna 5 5 a4 Soldotna‐Sterling 115 Sterling 5 5 a5 Sterling‐Quartz 115 Sterling 5 5 a6 Sterling‐Quartz 115 Quartz 5 5 a7 Quartz‐Daves 115 Quartz 5 5 a8 Quartz‐Daves 115 Daves_Ck 5 5 a9 University‐Plant_2 230 University 5 5 a10 University‐Plant_2 230 Plant_2 5 5 a11 Soldotna_SVC 115 Soldotna 5 5 a12 Daves_SVC 115 Quartz 5 5 a13 230_Cable Pt. MacKenzie Plant  2 230 Plant_2 5 5 b1 230_Cable Pt. MacKenzie Plant  2 230 Pt_Mack 5 5 b2 Pt.Mack‐Teeland 230 Pt_Mack 5 5 b3 Pt.Mack‐Teeland 230 Teeland 5 5 w1 Pt.Mack‐Douglas 230 Pt_Mack 5 5 w2 Pt.Mack‐Douglas 230 Douglas 5 5 w3 Pt.Mack‐Lorraine 230 Pt_Mack 5 5 w4 Pt.Mack‐Lorraine 230 Lorraine 5 5 w5 Watana‐Gold Creek 115 Watana 5 5 w6 Watana‐Gold Creek 115 Gold_Ck 5 5 c1 Kenai_Tie 115 University 5 5 c2 Kenai_Tie 115 Daves_Ck 5 5 c3 Kenai_Tie 230 University 5 5 c4 Kenai_Tie 230 Daves_Ck 5 5 c5 South_Tie 138 ITSS 5 5 c6 South_Tie 138 Bernice 5 5 c7 South_Tie 230 ITSS 5 5 c8 South_Tie 230 Bernice 5 5 c9 Bradley ‐Quartz 115 Brad_Lk 5 5 c10 Bradley ‐Quartz 115 Quartz 5 5 c11 DC_tie 100 Bernice 5 5 c12 DC_tie 100 Beluga 5 5 g1 ITSS_Unit_Trip n/a g2 Bradley_Unit_Trip n/a g3 Watana_Unit_Trip n/a Dist  Name Bernice International Bernice International Watana Gold Creek Dave's Creek University Dave's Creek University Fault  Location Clearing Time   (cycles) Quartz Creek Daves Creek University Plant 2 Volt  (kV) Dave's Creek SVC Soldotna Bradley Lake Soldotna Sterling Sterling Quartz Creek Soldotna SVC Beluga Bernice Bradley Lake  Unit  #2 Trip Watana Unit  Trip Name From Bus To Bus Pt. MacKenzie Teeland Pt. MacKenzie Douglas Pt. MacKenzie Lorraine ITSS Unit  #3 Trip Quartz Creek Bradley Lake Alaska Energy Authority Kenai Transmission Study March 7, 2014 Page 29 Appendix E – Transient Analysis – Winter Peak Table E.1 Stability Results – Winter Peak – Cases A, B, and C a1 a2 a3 a4 a5 a6 a7 a8 a9 a10 a11 a12 a13 b1 b2 b3 c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6 c7 c8 c9 c10 c11 c12 g1 g2 g3 Abase 96 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx x x B 1 108 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx x x B 2 108 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx x x B 3 108 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx x x B 4 108 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx x x B 5 108 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxx xx x x B 6 108 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxxx x x B 7 108 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx x x B 8 108 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx x x B 9 108 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx x x B 10 108 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx x x B 11 108 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx x x B 12 108 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx x x B 13 108 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx x x B 14 108 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxx x B 15 108 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxx x B 16 108 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxx x B 17 108 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx x B 18 108 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxx x x B 19 108 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx x x C 1 122 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx x x C 2 122 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx x x C 3 122 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx x x C 4 122 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx x x C 5 122 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxx xx x x C 6 122 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxxx x x C 7 122 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx x x C 8 122 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx x x C 9 122 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx x x C 10 122 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx x x C 11 122 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx x x C 12 122 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx x x C 13 122 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx x x C 14 122 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxx x C 15 122 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxx x C 16 122 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxx x C 17 122 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx x C 18 122 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxx x x C 19 122 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx x x out of step on Soldotna ‐ Diamond local line  out of step on Quartz ‐ Bradley Lake line out of step on Dave's Creek ‐ Hope Gen  Case Kenai  Export  (MW) Trans  Config ITSS_Unit_TripBradley_Unit_TripWatana_Unit_TripSouth_Tie_230@BerniceKenai_Tie_115@UniversityKenai_Tie_115@Daves_CkKenai_Tie_230@UniversityKenai_Tie_230@Daves_CkSouth_Tie_138@ITSSSouth_Tie_138@BerniceSouth_Tie_230@ITSS'DC_tie_100@Bernice''DC_tie_100@Beluga'Pt.Mack‐Teeland_230@TeelandSterling‐Quartz_115@QuartzBradley‐Soldotna_115@SoldotnaBradley‐Soldotna_115@Brad_LkSoldotna‐Sterling_115@SoldotnaSoldotna‐Sterling_115@SterlingBradley‐Quartz_115@Brad_LkBradley‐Quartz_115@QuartzSterling‐Quartz_115@SterlingQuartz‐Daves_115@QuartzQuartz‐Daves_115@Daves_CkUniversity‐Plant_2_230@UniversityUniversity‐Plant_2_230@Plant_2Soldotna_SVC_115@SoldotnaDaves_SVC_115@Quartz230_Cable_230@Plant_2230_Cable_230@Pt_MackPt.Mack‐Teeland_230@Pt_Mack Alaska Energy Authority Kenai Transmission Study March 7, 2014 Page 30 Table E.2 Stability Results – Winter Peak –Cases C1 and C2 a1 a2 a3 a4 a5 a6 a7 a8 a9 a10 a11 a12 a13 b1 b2 b3 c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6 c7 c8 c9 c10 c11 c12 g1 g2 g3 C1 1 123 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx x x C1 2 123 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx x x C1 3 123 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx x x C1 4 123 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx x x C1 5 123 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxx xx x x C1 6 123 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxxx x x C1 7 123 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx x x C1 8 123 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx x x C1 9 123 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx x x C1 10 123 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx x x C1 11 123 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx x x C1 12 123 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx x x C1 13 123 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx x x C1 14 123 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxx x C1 15 123 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxx x C1 16 123 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxx x C1 17 123 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx x C1 18 123 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxx x x C1 19 123 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx x x C2 1 77 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx x x C2 2 77 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx x x C2 3 77 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx x x C2 4 77 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx x x C2 5 77 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxx xx x x C2 6 77 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxxx x x C2 7 77 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx x x C2 8 77 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx x x C2 9 77 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx x x C2 10 77 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx x x C2 11 77 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx x x C2 12 77 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx x x C2 13 77 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx x x C2 14 77 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxx x C2 15 77 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxx x C2 16 77 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxx x C2 17 77 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx x C2 18 77 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxx x x C2 19 77 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx x x out of step on Soldotna ‐ Diamond local line  out of step on Quartz ‐ Bradley Lake line out of step on Dave's Creek ‐ Hope out of step on Soldotna ‐ Quartz Creek out of step on Quartz ‐ Sterling 230_Cable_230@Plant_2Pt.Mack‐Teeland_230@Pt_MackPt.Mack‐Teeland_230@Teeland230_Cable_230@Pt_MackQuartz‐Daves_115@Daves_CkUniversity‐Plant_2_230@UniversityUniversity‐Plant_2_230@Plant_2Soldotna_SVC_115@SoldotnaDaves_SVC_115@QuartzSoldotna‐Sterling_115@SoldotnaSoldotna‐Sterling_115@SterlingSterling‐Quartz_115@SterlingSterling‐Quartz_115@QuartzQuartz‐Daves_115@QuartzGen  Case Trans  Config Kenai  Export  (MW)Bradley‐Soldotna_115@SoldotnaBradley‐Soldotna_115@Brad_LkITSS_Unit_TripBradley_Unit_TripWatana_Unit_TripKenai_Tie_115@UniversityKenai_Tie_115@Daves_CkKenai_Tie_230@UniversityKenai_Tie_230@Daves_CkSouth_Tie_138@ITSSSouth_Tie_138@BerniceSouth_Tie_230@ITSSSouth_Tie_230@BerniceBradley‐Quartz_115@Brad_LkBradley‐Quartz_115@Quartz'DC_tie_100@Bernice''DC_tie_100@Beluga' Alaska Energy Authority Kenai Transmission Study March 7, 2014 Page 31 Table E.3 Stability Results – Winter Peak – Cases D and E a1 a2 a3 a4 a5 a6 a7 a8 a9 a10 a11a12a13w1w2w3w4w5w6 c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6c7c8c9c10c11c12 g1 g2 g3 D 1 30 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx D 2 30 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx D 3 30 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx D 4 30 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx D 5 30 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxx xx xxx D 6 30 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxxx x x x D 7 30 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx xxx D 8 30 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx D 9 30 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx D 10 30 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx D 11 30 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx D 12 30 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx D 13 30 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx D 14 30 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxx D 15 30 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxx D 16 30 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxx D 17 30 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxxxx D 18 30 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxx xxx D 19 30 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx xxx E 1 37 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx E 2 37 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx E 3 37 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx E 4 37 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx E 5 37 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxx xx xxx E 6 37 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxxx x x x E 7 37 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx xxx E 8 37 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx E 9 37 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx E 10 37 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx E 11 37 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx E 12 37 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx E 13 37 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx E 14 37 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxx E 15 37 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxx E 16 37 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxx E 17 37 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxxxx E 18 37 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxx xxx E 19 37 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx xxx out of step on Soldotna ‐ Diamond local line Watana_Unit_TripKenai_Tie_230@Daves_CkSouth_Tie_138@ITSSSouth_Tie_138@BerniceSouth_Tie_230@ITSSSouth_Tie_230@Bernice'DC_tie_100@Bernice''DC_tie_100@Beluga'Watana‐Gold Creek_115@WatanaWatana‐Gold Creek_115@Gold_CkKenai_Tie_115@UniversityKenai_Tie_115@Daves_CkKenai_Tie_230@UniversityBradley‐Quartz_115@Brad_LkBradley‐Quartz_115@QuartzITSS_Unit_TripPt.Mack‐Douglas_230@Pt_MackPt.Mack‐Douglas_230@DouglasPt.Mack‐Lorraine_230@Pt_MackPt.Mack‐Lorraine_230@LorraineSoldotna_SVC_115@SoldotnaDaves_SVC_115@Quartz230_Cable_230@Plant_2Gen   Case Trans  Config Kenai  Export  (MW)Bradley_Unit_TripSterling‐Quartz_115@QuartzQuartz‐Daves_115@QuartzQuartz‐Daves_115@Daves_CkUniversity‐Plant_2_230@UniversityUniversity‐Plant_2_230@Plant_2Bradley‐Soldotna_115@SoldotnaBradley‐Soldotna_115@Brad_LkSoldotna‐Sterling_115@SoldotnaSoldotna‐Sterling_115@SterlingSterling‐Quartz_115@Sterling Alaska Energy Authority Kenai Transmission Study March 7, 2014 Page 32 Table E.4 Stability Results – Winter Peak – Cases F, G, and H a1 a2 a3 a4 a5 a6 a7 a8 a9 a10 a11a12a13w1w2w3w4w5w6c1c2c3c4c5c6c7c8c9c10c11c12 g1 g2 g3 F 1 49 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx F 2 49 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx F 3 49 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx F 4 49 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx F 5 49 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxx xx xxx F 6 49 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxxx xxx F 7 49 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx xxx F 8 49 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx F 9 49 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx F 10 49 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx F 11 49 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx F 12 49 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx F 13 49 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx F 14 49 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxx F 15 49 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxx F 16 49 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxx F 17 49 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxxxx F 18 49 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxx xxx F 19 49 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx xxx G1‐13 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx G2‐13 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx G3‐13 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx G4‐13 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx G5‐13 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxx xx xxx G6‐13 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxxx xxx G7‐13 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx xxx G8‐13 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx G9‐13 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx G10‐13 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx G11‐13 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx G12‐13 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx G13‐13 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx G14‐13 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxx G15‐13 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxx G16‐13 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxx G17‐13 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxxxx G18‐13 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxx xxx G19‐13 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx xxx H 1 19 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx H 2 19 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx H 3 19 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx H 4 19 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx H 5 19 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxx xx xxx H 6 19 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxxx xxx H 7 19 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx xxx H 8 19 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx H 9 19 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx H 10 19 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx H 11 19 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx H 12 19 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx H 13 19 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx H 14 19 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxx H 15 19 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxx H 16 19 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxx H 17 19 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxxxx H 18 19 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxx xxx H 19 19 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx xxx out of step on Soldotna ‐ Diamond local line Kenai  Export  (MW)Bradley‐Soldotna_115@SoldotnaBradley‐Soldotna_115@Brad_LkSoldotna‐Sterling_115@SoldotnaSoldotna‐Sterling_115@SterlingSouth_Tie_230@BerniceBradley‐Quartz_115@Brad_LkBradley‐Quartz_115@QuartzKenai_Tie_230@UniversityKenai_Tie_230@Daves_CkSouth_Tie_138@ITSSSouth_Tie_138@BerniceSouth_Tie_230@ITSSWatana‐Gold Creek_115@Gold_CkKenai_Tie_115@UniversityKenai_Tie_115@Daves_CkWatana_Unit_TripITSS_Unit_TripBradley_Unit_Trip'DC_tie_100@Bernice''DC_tie_100@Beluga'Pt.Mack‐Douglas_230@Pt_MackPt.Mack‐Douglas_230@DouglasPt.Mack‐Lorraine_230@Pt_MackUniversity‐Plant_2_230@Plant_2Soldotna_SVC_115@SoldotnaDaves_SVC_115@Quartz230_Cable_230@Plant_2Pt.Mack‐Lorraine_230@LorraineWatana‐Gold Creek_115@WatanaGen  Case Trans  Config Sterling‐Quartz_115@SterlingSterling‐Quartz_115@QuartzQuartz‐Daves_115@QuartzQuartz‐Daves_115@Daves_CkUniversity‐Plant_2_230@University Alaska Energy Authority Kenai Transmission Study March 7, 2014 Page 33 Appendix F – Transient Analysis – Summer Peak Table F.1 Stability Results – Summer Peak – Cases A, B, and C a1 a2 a3 a4 a5 a6 a7 a8 a9 a10 a11a12a13b1b2b3c1c2c3c4c5c6c7c8c9c10c11c12 g1 g2 g3 Abase 99 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx B 1 109 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx B 2 109 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx B 3 109 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx B 4 109 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx B 5 109 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxx xx xx B 6 109 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxxx xx B 7 109 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx xx B 8 109 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx B 9 109 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx B 10 109 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx B 11 109 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx B 12 109 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx B 13 109 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx B 14 109 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxx B 15 109 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxx B 16 109 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxx B 17 109 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxxx B 18 109 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxx xx B 19 109 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx xx C 1 125 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx C 2 125 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx C 3 125 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx C 4 125 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx C 5 125 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxx xx xx C 6 125 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxxx xx C 7 125 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx xx C 8 125 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx C 9 125 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx C 10 125 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx C 11 125 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx C 12 125 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx C 13 125 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx C 14 125 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxx C 15 125 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxx C 16 125 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxx C 17 125 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxxx C 18 125 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxx xx C 19 125 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx xx out of step on Soldotna ‐ Diamond local line  out of step on Quartz ‐ Bradley Lake  line Gen  Case Trans  Config Kenai_Tie_230@UniversityKenai_Tie_230@Daves_CkSouth_Tie_138@ITSSSouth_Tie_138@BerniceSouth_Tie_230@ITSSSouth_Tie_230@BerniceBradley‐Quartz_115@Brad_LkKenai_Tie_115@Daves_CkQuartz‐Daves_115@QuartzKenai  Export  (MW)Kenai_Tie_115@UniversitySterling‐Quartz_115@QuartzBradley‐Soldotna_115@SoldotnaBradley‐Soldotna_115@Brad_LkSoldotna‐Sterling_115@SoldotnaSoldotna‐Sterling_115@SterlingSterling‐Quartz_115@SterlingQuartz‐Daves_115@Daves_CkUniversity‐Plant_2_230@UniversityUniversity‐Plant_2_230@Plant_2Soldotna_SVC_115@Soldotna'DC_tie_100@Bernice''DC_tie_100@Beluga'Daves_SVC_115@Quartz230_Cable_230@Plant_2230_Cable_230@Pt_MackPt.Mack‐Teeland_230@Pt_MackPt.Mack‐Teeland_230@TeelandBradley‐Quartz_115@QuartzITSS_Unit_TripBradley_Unit_TripWatana_Unit_Trip Alaska Energy Authority Kenai Transmission Study March 7, 2014 Page 34 Table F.2 Stability Results – Summer Peak – Cases C1 and C2 a1 a2 a3 a4 a5 a6 a7 a8 a9 a10 a11a12a13b1b2b3c1c2c3c4c5c6c7c8c9c10c11c12 g1 g2 g3 C1 1 124 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx C1 2 124 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx C1 3 124 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx C1 4 124 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx C1 5 124 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxx xx xx C1 6 124 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxxx xx C1 7 124 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx xx C1 8 124 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx C1 9 124 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx C1 10 124 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx C1 11 124 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx C1 12 124 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx C1 13 124 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx C1 14 124 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxx C1 15 124 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxx C1 16 124 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxx C1 17 124 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxxx C1 18 124 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxx xx C1 19 124 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx xx C2 1 99 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx C2 2 99 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx C2 3 99 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx C2 4 99 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx C2 5 99 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxx xx xx C2 6 99 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxxx xx C2 7 99 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx xx C2 8 99 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx C2 9 99 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx C2 10 99 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx C2 11 99 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx C2 12 99 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx C2 13 99 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx C2 14 99 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxx C2 15 99 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxx C2 16 99 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxx C2 17 99 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxxx C2 18 99 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxx xx C2 19 99 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx xx out of step on Soldotna ‐ Diamond local line  out of step on Quartz ‐ Bradley Lake line out of step on Dave's Creek ‐ HopeUniversity‐Plant_2_230@Plant_2Soldotna_SVC_115@SoldotnaDaves_SVC_115@Quartz230_Cable_230@Plant_2230_Cable_230@Pt_MackPt.Mack‐Teeland_230@Pt_MackPt.Mack‐Teeland_230@TeelandKenai_Tie_115@UniversityKenai_Tie_115@Daves_CkWatana_Unit_TripQuartz‐Daves_115@Daves_CkUniversity‐Plant_2_230@UniversityKenai_Tie_230@UniversityKenai_Tie_230@Daves_CkSouth_Tie_138@BerniceSouth_Tie_230@ITSSSouth_Tie_230@BerniceBradley‐Quartz_115@Brad_LkBradley‐Quartz_115@Quartz'DC_tie_100@Bernice''DC_tie_100@Beluga'ITSS_Unit_TripBradley_Unit_TripSouth_Tie_138@ITSSGen   Case Trans  Config Kenai  Export  (MW)Bradley‐Soldotna_115@SoldotnaBradley‐Soldotna_115@Brad_LkSoldotna‐Sterling_115@SoldotnaSoldotna‐Sterling_115@SterlingSterling‐Quartz_115@SterlingSterling‐Quartz_115@QuartzQuartz‐Daves_115@Quartz Alaska Energy Authority Kenai Transmission Study March 7, 2014 Page 35 Table F.3 Stability Results – Summer Peak – Cases D and E a1 a2 a3 a4 a5 a6 a7 a8 a9 a10 a11a12a13w1w2w3w4w5w6 c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6c7c8c9c10c11c12 g1 g2 g3 D 1 61 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx D 2 61 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx D 3 61 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx D 4 61 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx D 5 61 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxx xx xxx D 6 61 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxxx xxx D 7 61 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx xxx D 8 61 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx D 9 61 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx D 10 61 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx D 11 61 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx D 12 61 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx D 13 61 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx D 14 61 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxx D 15 61 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxx D 16 61 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxx D 17 61 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxxxx D 18 61 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxx xxx D 19 61 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx xxx E 1 67 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx E 2 67 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx E 3 67 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx E 4 67 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx E 5 67 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxx xx xxx E 6 67 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxxx xxx E 7 67 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx xxx E 8 67 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx E 9 67 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx E 10 67 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx E 11 67 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx E 12 67 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx E 13 67 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx E 14 67 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxx E 15 67 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxx E 16 67 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxx E 17 67 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxxxx E 18 67 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxx xxx E 19 67 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx xxx out of step on Soldotna ‐ Diamond local line Tesoro out of step, Tesoro ‐ Soldotna line ITSS_Unit_TripPt.Mack‐Lorraine_230@Pt_MackSouth_Tie_230@ITSSSouth_Tie_230@BerniceBradley‐Quartz_115@Brad_LkBradley‐Quartz_115@QuartzKenai_Tie_115@Daves_CkKenai_Tie_230@UniversityKenai_Tie_230@Daves_CkSouth_Tie_138@ITSSBradley_Unit_TripWatana_Unit_TripSouth_Tie_138@Bernice'DC_tie_100@Bernice''DC_tie_100@Beluga'Watana‐Gold Creek_115@WatanaWatana‐Gold Creek_115@Gold_CkKenai_Tie_115@UniversitySoldotna_SVC_115@SoldotnaDaves_SVC_115@Quartz230_Cable_230@Plant_2Pt.Mack‐Douglas_230@Pt_MackPt.Mack‐Douglas_230@DouglasGen   Case Trans   Config Sterling‐Quartz_115@QuartzQuartz‐Daves_115@QuartzQuartz‐Daves_115@Daves_CkUniversity‐Plant_2_230@UniversityBradley‐Soldotna_115@SoldotnaBradley‐Soldotna_115@Brad_LkSoldotna‐Sterling_115@SoldotnaSoldotna‐Sterling_115@SterlingSterling‐Quartz_115@SterlingKenai  Export  (MW)University‐Plant_2_230@Plant_2Pt.Mack‐Lorraine_230@Lorraine Alaska Energy Authority Kenai Transmission Study March 7, 2014 Page 36 Table F.4 Stability Results – Summer Peak – Cases F, G, and H a1 a2 a3 a4 a5 a6 a7 a8 a9 a10a11a12a13w1 w2 w3 w4 w5 w6 c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6 c7 c8 c9 c10c11c12 g1 g2 g3 F 1 89 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx F 2 89 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx F 3 89 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx F 4 89 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx F 5 89 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxx xx xxx F 6 89 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxxx xxx F 7 89 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx xxx F 8 89 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx F 9 89 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx F 10 89 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx F 11 89 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx F 12 89 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx F 13 89 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx F 14 89 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxx F 15 89 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxx F 16 89 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxx F 17 89 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxxxx F 18 89 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxx xxx F 19 89 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx xxx G 1 6 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx G 2 6 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx G 3 6 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx G 4 6 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx G 5 6 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxx xx xxx G 6 6 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxxx xxx G 7 6 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx xxx G 8 6 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx G 9 6 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx G 10 6 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx G 11 6 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx G 12 6 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx G 13 6 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx G 14 6 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxx G 15 6 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxx G 16 6 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxx G 17 6 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxxxx G 18 6 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxx xxx G 19 6 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx xxx H 1 11 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx H 2 11 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx H 3 11 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx H 4 11 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx H 5 11 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxx xx xxx H 6 11 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxxx xxx H 7 11 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx xxx H 8 11 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx H 9 11 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx H 10 11 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx H 11 11 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx H 12 11 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx H 13 11 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx H 14 11 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxx H 15 11 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxx H 16 11 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxx H 17 11 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxxxx H 18 11 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxx xxx H 19 11 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx xxx out of step on Soldotna ‐ Diamond local line Kenai_Tie_230@Daves_CkSouth_Tie_138@ITSSSouth_Tie_138@Bernice'DC_tie_100@Bernice''DC_tie_100@Beluga'Gen  Case Trans  Config Sterling‐Quartz_115@QuartzQuartz‐Daves_115@QuartzQuartz‐Daves_115@Daves_CkUniversity‐Plant_2_230@UniversityBradley‐Soldotna_115@Brad_LkSoldotna‐Sterling_115@SoldotnaSoldotna‐Sterling_115@SterlingSterling‐Quartz_115@SterlingKenai  Export  (MW)Bradley‐Soldotna_115@SoldotnaUniversity‐Plant_2_230@Plant_2Pt.Mack‐Lorraine_230@LorraineWatana‐Gold Creek_115@WatanaWatana‐Gold Creek_115@Gold_CkKenai_Tie_115@UniversitySoldotna_SVC_115@SoldotnaDaves_SVC_115@Quartz230_Cable_230@Plant_2Pt.Mack‐Douglas_230@Pt_MackPt.Mack‐Douglas_230@DouglasPt.Mack‐Lorraine_230@Pt_MackBradley_Unit_TripWatana_Unit_TripSouth_Tie_230@ITSSSouth_Tie_230@BerniceBradley‐Quartz_115@Brad_LkBradley‐Quartz_115@QuartzITSS_Unit_TripKenai_Tie_115@Daves_CkKenai_Tie_230@University Alaska Energy Authority Kenai Transmission Study March 7, 2014 Page 37 Appendix G – Transient Analysis – Summer Valley Table G.1 Stability Results – Summer Valley – Cases A, B, and C a1 a2 a3 a4 a5 a6 a7 a8 a9 a10 a11a12a13b1b2b3c1c2c3c4c5c6c7c8c9c10c11c12 g1 g2 g3 Abase 99 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx B 1 111 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx B 2 111 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx B 3 111 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx B 4 111 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx B 5 111 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxx xx xx B 6 111 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxxx xx B 7 111 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx xx B 8 111 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx B 9 111 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx B 10 111 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx B 11 111 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx B 12 111 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx B 13 111 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx B 14 111 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxx B 15 111 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxx B 16 111 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxx B 17 111 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxxx B 18 111 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx x xxx xx B 19 111 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx x x xx xx Ca 1 126 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx Ca 2 126 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx Ca 3 126 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx Ca 4 126 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx Ca 5 126 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxx xx xx Ca 6 126 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxxx xx Ca 7 126 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx xx Ca 8 126 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx Ca 9 126 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx Ca 10 126 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx Ca 11 126 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx Ca 12 126 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx Ca 13 126 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx Ca 14 126 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxx Ca 15 126 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxx Ca 16 126 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxx Ca 17 126 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxxx Ca 18 126 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxx xx Ca 19 126 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx xx out of step on Soldotna ‐ Diamond local line  out of step on Quartz ‐ Bradley Lake  line out of step on Dave's Creek ‐ Hope Pt.Mack‐Teeland_230@TeelandKenai_Tie_115@University'DC_tie_100@Bernice''DC_tie_100@Beluga'ITSS_Unit_TripBradley_Unit_TripWatana_Unit_TripKenai_Tie_230@UniversityBradley‐Quartz_115@Brad_LkBradley‐Quartz_115@QuartzSouth_Tie_230@ITSSSouth_Tie_230@BerniceKenai_Tie_115@Daves_CkKenai_Tie_230@Daves_CkSouth_Tie_138@ITSSSouth_Tie_138@BerniceGen  Case Daves_SVC_115@QuartzBradley‐Soldotna_115@SoldotnaBradley‐Soldotna_115@Brad_LkSoldotna‐Sterling_115@SoldotnaSoldotna‐Sterling_115@SterlingSterling‐Quartz_115@SterlingSterling‐Quartz_115@QuartzQuartz‐Daves_115@QuartzQuartz‐Daves_115@Daves_CkUniversity‐Plant_2_230@UniversityUniversity‐Plant_2_230@Plant_2Soldotna_SVC_115@Soldotna230_Cable_230@Plant_2230_Cable_230@Pt_MackPt.Mack‐Teeland_230@Pt_MackTrans  Config Kenai  Export  (MW) Alaska Energy Authority Kenai Transmission Study March 7, 2014 Page 38 Table G.2 Stability Results – Summer Valley – Cases C1, C2 a1 a2 a3 a4 a5 a6 a7 a8 a9 a10 a11a12a13b1b2b3c1c2c3c4c5c6c7c8c9c10c11c12g1g2g3 C1a 1 127 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx C1a 2 127 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx C1a 3 127 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx C1a 4 127 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx C1a 5 127 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxx xx xx C1a 6 127 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxxx xx C1a 7 127 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx xx C1a 8 127 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx C1a 9 127 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx C1a 10 127 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx C1a 11 127 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx C1a 12 127 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx C1a 13 127 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx C1a 14 127 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxx C1a 15 127 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxx C1a 16 127 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxx C1a 17 127 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxxx C1a 18 127 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxx xx C1a 19 127 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx xx C2a 1 118 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx C2a 2 118 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx C2a 3 118 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx C2a 4 118 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx C2a 5 118 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxx xx xx C2a 6 118 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxxx xx C2a 7 118 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx xx C2a 8 118 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx C2a 9 118 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx C2a 10 118 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx C2a 11 118 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx C2a 12 118 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx C2a 13 118 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx C2a 14 118 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxx C2a 15 118 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxx C2a 16 118 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxx C2a 17 118 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxxx C2a 18 118 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxx xx C2a 19 118 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx xx out of step on Soldotna ‐ Diamond local line  out of step on Quartz ‐ Bradley Lake  line out of step on Dave's Creek ‐ Hope out of step on Soldotna ‐ Quartz Creek Bradley‐Quartz_115@Brad_LkBradley‐Quartz_115@Quartz'DC_tie_100@Bernice''DC_tie_100@Beluga'ITSS_Unit_TripBradley_Unit_TripWatana_Unit_TripGen  Case Trans  Config Kenai  Export  (MW)Bradley‐Soldotna_115@SoldotnaBradley‐Soldotna_115@Brad_LkSoldotna‐Sterling_115@SoldotnaSoldotna‐Sterling_115@SterlingSterling‐Quartz_115@SterlingSterling‐Quartz_115@QuartzQuartz‐Daves_115@QuartzQuartz‐Daves_115@Daves_CkUniversity‐Plant_2_230@UniversityUniversity‐Plant_2_230@Plant_2Soldotna_SVC_115@SoldotnaDaves_SVC_115@Quartz230_Cable_230@Plant_2230_Cable_230@Pt_MackPt.Mack‐Teeland_230@TeelandPt.Mack‐Teeland_230@Pt_MackKenai_Tie_115@UniversityKenai_Tie_115@Daves_CkKenai_Tie_230@UniversityKenai_Tie_230@Daves_CkSouth_Tie_138@ITSSSouth_Tie_138@BerniceSouth_Tie_230@ITSSSouth_Tie_230@Bernice Alaska Energy Authority Kenai Transmission Study March 7, 2014 Page 39 Table G.3 Stability Results – Summer Valley – Cases D and E a1 a2 a3 a4 a5 a6 a7 a8 a9 a10 a11a12a13w1w2w3w4w5w6c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6c7c8c9c10c11c12g1 g2 g3 D 1 81 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx D 2 81 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx D 3 81 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx D 4 81 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx D 5 81 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxx xx xxx D 6 81 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxxx xxx D 7 81 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx xxx D 8 81 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx D 9 81 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx D 10 81 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx D 11 81 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx D 12 81 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx D 13 81 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx D 14 81 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxx D 15 81 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxx D 16 81 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxx D 17 81 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxxxx D 18 81 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxx xxx D 19 81 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx xxx E 1 81 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx E 2 81 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx E 3 81 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx E 4 81 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx E 5 81 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxx xx xxx E 6 81 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxxx xxx E 7 81 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx xxx E 8 81 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx E 9 81 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx E 10 81 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx E 11 81 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx E 12 81 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx E 13 81 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx E 14 81 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxx E 15 81 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxx E 16 81 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxx E 17 81 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxxxx E 18 81 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxx xxx E 19 81 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx xxx out of step on Soldotna ‐ Diamond local line 'DC_tie_100@Bernice''DC_tie_100@Beluga'Kenai  Export  (MW)Bradley_Unit_TripWatana_Unit_TripSouth_Tie_230@ITSSSouth_Tie_230@BerniceBradley‐Quartz_115@Brad_LkBradley‐Quartz_115@QuartzITSS_Unit_TripSoldotna‐Sterling_115@SoldotnaSoldotna‐Sterling_115@SterlingSterling‐Quartz_115@SterlingPt.Mack‐Lorraine_230@Pt_MackPt.Mack‐Lorraine_230@LorraineWatana‐Gold Creek_115@WatanaWatana‐Gold Creek_115@Gold_CkKenai_Tie_115@UniversitySoldotna_SVC_115@SoldotnaDaves_SVC_115@Quartz230_Cable_230@Plant_2Pt.Mack‐Douglas_230@Pt_MackPt.Mack‐Douglas_230@DouglasKenai_Tie_115@Daves_CkGen  Case Trans  Config Quartz‐Daves_115@Daves_CkUniversity‐Plant_2_230@UniversityUniversity‐Plant_2_230@Plant_2Bradley‐Soldotna_115@SoldotnaBradley‐Soldotna_115@Brad_LkSterling‐Quartz_115@QuartzQuartz‐Daves_115@QuartzKenai_Tie_230@UniversityKenai_Tie_230@Daves_CkSouth_Tie_138@ITSSSouth_Tie_138@Bernice Alaska Energy Authority Kenai Transmission Study March 7, 2014 Page 40 Table G.4 Stability Results – Summer Valley – Cases F, G, and H a1 a2 a3 a4 a5 a6 a7 a8 a9 a10 a11a12a13w1w2w3w4w5w6 c1 c2 c3 c4 c5 c6c7c8c9c10c11c12g1 g2 g3 F 1 99 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx F 2 99 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx F 3 99 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx F 4 99 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx F 5 99 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxx xx xxx F 6 99 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxxx xxx F 7 99 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx xxx F 8 99 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx F 9 99 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx F 10 99 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx F 11 99 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx F 12 99 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx F 13 99 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx F 14 99 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxx F 15 99 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxx F 16 99 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxx F 17 99 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxxxx F 18 99 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxx xxx F 19 99 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx xxx G 1 26 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx G 2 26 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx G 3 26 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx G 4 26 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx G 5 26 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxx xx xxx G 6 26 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxxx xxx G 7 26 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx xxx G 8 26 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx G 9 26 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx G 10 26 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx G 11 26 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx G 12 26 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx G 13 26 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx G 14 26 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxx G 15 26 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxx G 16 26 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxx G 17 26 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxxxx G 18 26 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxx xxx G 19 26 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx xxx H 1 26 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx H 2 26 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx H 3 26 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx H 4 26 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx H 5 26 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxx xx xxx H 6 26 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxxx xxx H 7 26 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx xxx H 8 26 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx H 9 26 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx H 10 26 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx H 11 26 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx H 12 26 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx H 13 26 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxx H 14 26 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxx H 15 26 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxx H 16 26 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxx H 17 26 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xxxxx H 18 26 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxx xxx H 19 26 x xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xx xx xxx out of step on Soldotna ‐ Diamond local line Watana_Unit_TripSouth_Tie_230@ITSSSouth_Tie_230@BerniceBradley‐Quartz_115@Brad_LkBradley‐Quartz_115@QuartzITSS_Unit_TripBradley_Unit_TripPt.Mack‐Lorraine_230@Pt_MackPt.Mack‐Lorraine_230@LorraineWatana‐Gold Creek_115@WatanaWatana‐Gold Creek_115@Gold_CkKenai_Tie_115@UniversitySoldotna_SVC_115@SoldotnaDaves_SVC_115@Quartz230_Cable_230@Plant_2Pt.Mack‐Douglas_230@Pt_MackPt.Mack‐Douglas_230@Douglas'DC_tie_100@Bernice''DC_tie_100@Beluga'Kenai_Tie_115@Daves_CkKenai_Tie_230@UniversityKenai_Tie_230@Daves_CkSouth_Tie_138@ITSSSouth_Tie_138@BerniceSterling‐Quartz_115@QuartzQuartz‐Daves_115@QuartzQuartz‐Daves_115@Daves_CkUniversity‐Plant_2_230@UniversityBradley‐Soldotna_115@Brad_LkSoldotna‐Sterling_115@SoldotnaSoldotna‐Sterling_115@SterlingSterling‐Quartz_115@SterlingGen  Case Trans  Config Kenai  Export  (MW)University‐Plant_2_230@Plant_2Bradley‐Soldotna_115@Soldotna Alaska Energy Authority Kenai Transmission Study March 7, 2014 Page 41 Appendix H – DC Size Analysis Detailed Results Table H.1 – Kenai Trip Analysis – Summer Valley Initia Post MW % 75 39 9% 80 39 9% 90 29 6% 100 0 0% 75 39 9% 80 29 6% 90 0 0% 100 0 0% 75 39 9% 80 39 9% 90 39 9% 100 0 0% 75 39 9% 80 39 9% 90 0 0% 100 0 0% load shedding in Anchorage and GVEA 75 75 DC Flow  (MW) UFLS   Action 75 75 C1A 74 123 56 21 CA 73 127 59.8 Summer  Valley 16 CA 73 127 60.4 C1A 74 123 56.5 Kenai  Export Daves ‐ Quartz Season Trans  Config Gen   Case Spin  (MW) Line  Flow  Table H.2 – Kenai Trip Analysis – Summer Peak Initial Post MW % 75 44 6% 80 44 6% 90 44 6% 100 0 0% 75 44 6% 80 44 6% 90 0 0% 100 0 0% 75 68 9% 80 44 6% 90 44 6% 100 0 0% 75 44 6% 80 44 6% 90 0 0% 100 0 0% load shedding in Anchorage and GVEA 60.5 C1A 72 125 60.4 61.1 C1A 72 125 61.1 Summer  Peak 16 CA 82 125 16 CA 82 125 Season Trans   Config Gen   Case Spin  (MW)Kenai  Export Daves ‐ Quartz Line  Flow DC Flow  (MW)UFLS  Action 75 75 75 75 Alaska Energy Authority Kenai Transmission Study March 7, 2014 Page 42 Table H.2 – Kenai Trip Analysis – Winter Peak Initial Post MW % 75 62 6% 80 62 6% 90 62 6% 100 0 0% 75 62 6% 80 29 3% 90 0 0% 100 0 0% 75 62 6% 80 62 6% 90 62 6% 100 0 0% 75 62 6% 80 62 6% 90 0 0% 100 0 0% load shedding in Anchorage and GVEA 60.8 C1A 66 125 62.7 61.5 C1A 66 125 63.4 Winter  Peak 16 CA 73 123 21 CA 73 123 Season Trans   Config Gen   Case Spin  (MW)Kenai  Export Daves ‐ Quartz Line  Flow DC Flow  (MW)UFLS  Action 75 75 75 75 Alaska Energy Authority Kenai Transmission Study March 7, 2014 Page 43 Appendix I – DC / Southern Intertie Trip Detailed Results Table I.1 – DC / Southern Intertie Trip Results c5 c6 c7 c8 c11 c12 c5 c6 c7 c8 c11 c12 c5 c6 c7 c8 c11 c12 C 1 126 x x 125 x x 122 x x C 2 126 x x 125 x x 122 x x C 3 126 x x 125 x x 122 x x C 4 126 x x 125 x x 122 x x C 14 126 x x 125 x x 122 x x C 16 126 x x 125 x x 122 x x C 20 126 x x 125 x x 122 x x C 21 126 x x 125 x x 122 x x C1 1 127 x x 124 x x 123 x x C1 2 127 x x 124 x x 123 x x C1 3 127 x x 124 x x 123 x x C1 4 127 x x 124 x x 123 x x C1 14 127 x x 124 x x 123 x x C1 16 127 x x 124 x x 123 x x C1 20 127 x x 124 x x 123 x x C1 21 127 x x 124 x x 123 x x C2 1 118 x x 99 x x 77 x x C2 2 118 x x 99 x x 77 x x C2 3 118 x x 99 x x 77 x x C2 4 118 x x 99 x x 77 x x C214118 xx99 xx77 xx C216118 xx99 xx77 xx C220118xx99xx77xx C221118 xx99 xx77 xx'DC_tie_100@Beluga'Kenai  Export  (MW)South_Tie_138@BerniceSouth_Tie_230@ITSSSouth_Tie_230@Bernice'DC_tie_100@Bernice'South_Tie_138@BerniceSouth_Tie_230@ITSSSouth_Tie_230@Bernice'DC_tie_100@Bernice''DC_tie_100@Beluga'Season Summer Valley Summer Peak Winter Peak Gen   Case Trans  Config Kenai  Export  (MW)South_Tie_138@ITSSSouth_Tie_138@BerniceSouth_Tie_230@ITSSSouth_Tie_138@ITSSSouth_Tie_230@Bernice'DC_tie_100@Bernice''DC_tie_100@Beluga'Kenai  Export  (MW)South_Tie_138@ITSS Alaska Energy Authority Kenai Transmission Study March 7, 2014 Page 44 Appendix J – Costs of Individual Line Improvements Cost estimates for each of the proposed transmission upgrades are presented below: J.1 Upgrade Existing Kenai Tie to 230 kV The project includes the rebuild of 76.8 miles of 115 kV transmission line to 230 kV. The project includes removal of the existing 115 kV intertie and reconstruction of the intertie to 230 kV. The detailed line sections and their estimates are outlined in Table J.1 below. Table J.1 Conductor Costs – Upgrade Kenai Tie to 230 kV Line Section Existing Structure Type* Existing Framing Existing Line Miles Proposed Structure Type* Proposed Framing Proposed Location Construction Estimate Daves Creek - Hope STH-1A 115kV 18.9 230-H 230kV Existing Alignment $14,000,000 Hope - Portage STH-1A 115kV 19.7 230-H 230kV Existing Alignment $15,000,000 Portage - Girdwood STH-1A 138kV 11.0 230-H 230kV Existing Alignment $8,000,000 Girdwood - Indian STH-1A 115kV 10.7 230-H 230kV Existing Alignment $7,500,000 Indian - University STH-1A 115kV 16.5 230-H 230kV Existing Alignment $13,000,000 Total 76.8 $57,500,000 The project includes the installation of 30 MVAr of reactive compensation at Dave’s Creek for voltage control. The project will require the construction of a new 230 kV bay at Dave’s Creek Station and the addition of a 230 kV termination at University station. Existing 115 kV stations at Summit Lake, Hope, Portage, Girdwood and Indian stations would require conversion to 230 kV. The detailed substations and their estimates are outlined in Table J.2 below. Table J.2 Substation Costs – Upgrade Kenai Tie to 230 kV Station Description Costs Daves Creek 230 kV Transformer,breaker $5,383,168 Daves Creek 30 MVAr Reactor/SVC integration $1,450,000 Summit 230 kV Circuit Switcher/transformer $1,803,319 Hope 230 kV Circuit Switcher/transformer $180,332 Portage 230 kV Circuit Switcher/transformer $3,791,449 Girdwood 230 kV GIS, two 230 kV transformers $12,028,689 Indian 230 kV Circuit Switcher/transformer $3,026,814 University 230 kV relaying/controls $361,475 Total $28,025,245 The total costs for upgrading the existing Kenai Tie to 230 kV are shown in Table J.3. Table J.3 Total Costs – Upgrade Kenai Tie to 230 kV Item Costs Total  Conductor Upgrade  Costs $57,500,000 Total  Substation Upgrade  Costs $28,025,245 Total  Costs $85,525,245 J.2 Modified 115 kV Kenai Transmission Substations This cost estimate provides the costs for the modifications to each of the substations required between Bradley Lake and Dave’s Creek stations. The station costs can be used in combination with the appropriate line costs to arrive at the total project costs. Alaska Energy Authority Kenai Transmission Study March 7, 2014 Page 45 Table J.4 Cost Analysis – Kenai Transmission Substations Station Description Costs Bradley  Lake Add new Bay/115 kV cable  to Bradley  GIS $2,865,141 Soldotna 115 kV station ‐ Ring Bus $4,800,000 Quartz Creek Add 115 kV  station $2,580,000 Daves Creek Add 115 kV  Bay $1,480,000 Total $11,725,141 J.3 New 115 kV Line – Bradley Lake to Soldotna This project includes the construction of a new transmission line along the existing Bradley – Bradley Junction – Soldotna transmission line. The line would utilize 556 MCM Dove conductor and wooden H-structures for the line construction. Table J.5 Cost Analysis – New 115 kV line, Bradley Lake - Soldotna Line Section Existing Structure Type* Existing Framing Existing Line Miles Proposed Structure Type* Proposed Framing Proposed Location Construction Estimate Bradley - Bradley Jct X-Twr 115kV 19.2 X-Twr 115kV Parallel to Existing $18,000,000 Bradley Jct - Soldotna STH-1A 115kV 48.6 STH-1A 115kV Parallel to Existing $37,000,000 $55,000,000Total J.4 New 115 kV Line – Soldotna to Quartz Creek This project includes the construction of a new 115 kV transmission line adjacent to the existing 115 kV Quartz Creek – Soldotna 115 kV Transmission line. Station costs would be the same as previously listed. Table J.6 Cost Analysis – New 115 kV line, Soldotna – Quartz Creek Existing Structure Type* Existing Framing Existing Line Miles Proposed Structure Type* Proposed Framing Proposed Location Construction Estimate Soldotna - Quartz Ck STH-1A 115kV 54.8 STH-1A 115kV Parallel to Existing $44,000,000 J.5 New 115 kV Line – Bradley Lake to Quartz Creek This project includes the construction of a new 115 kV line from Bradley Lake to Quartz Creek station. The line would by-pass Bradley Junction and Soldotna stations, but would be routed adjacent to these facilities. The substation facilities are the same as previously listed. Table J.7 Cost Analysis – New 115 kV line, Bradley – Quartz Creek Existing Structure Type* Existing Framing Existing Line Miles Proposed Structure Type* Proposed Framing Proposed Location Construction Estimate Bradley - Bradley Jct X-Twr 115kV 19.2 X-Twr 115kV Parallel to Existing $18,000,000 Bradley Jct - Soldotna STH-1A 115kV 48.6 STH-1A 115kV Parallel to Existing $37,000,000 Soldotna - Quartz Ck STH-1A 115kV 54.8 STH-1A 115kV Parallel to Existing $44,000,000 Total $99,000,000 J.6 New 115 kV Line – Quartz Creek to Dave’s Creek This project includes the construction of a new 115 kV line from Quartz Creek to Dave’s Creek. The structures would be a single pole, double circuit configuration with the exception of the Kenai Lake Crossing. Alaska Energy Authority Kenai Transmission Study March 7, 2014 Page 46 Table J.8 Cost Analysis – New 115 kV line, Quartz Creek – Dave’s Creek Existing Structure Type* Existing Framing Existing Line Miles Proposed Structure Type* Proposed Framing Proposed Location Construction Estimate Quartz Ck - Daves Ck STH-1A 115kV 14.5 STH-1D 115kV DBL Existing Alignment $12,180,000 The substation improvements for this project include a new 115 kV breaker bay at Quartz Creek and a new 115 kV breaker position at Dave’s Creek. J.7 Reconductor Existing 115 kV Diamond Ridge – Soldotna Line This project includes the reconstruction of the existing 4/0 sections of the Diamond Ridge – Soldotna transmission line to 556 MCM “Dove” conductor. The reconductor is required due to heavy losses and severe thermal limits on the 4/0 conductor. Table J.9 Cost Analysis – Reconductor 115 kV line, Diamond Ridge - Soldotna Existing Structure Type* Existing Framing Existing Line Miles Proposed Structure Type* Proposed Framing Proposed Location Construction Estimate Diamond Ridge - Soldotna HPT-1 115kV 75 HPT-1 115kV $75,500,000 J.8 New Kenai Intertie – 230 kV AC This project includes the reconstruction of the new Kenai intertie from Pt. Woronzof to Bernice Lake Substation. The line consists 18.2 miles of submarine cable, 4.9 miles of land cable and 38.0 miles of overhead. Table J.10 Conductor Costs – New 230 kV AC Kenai Intertie Line Section Line Miles Sub Cable - Worz. to Pt. Possession 18.6 $143,000,000 $205,000,000 Pt. Possession - Captain Cook Park 26.2 $19,000,000 $19,000,000 Land Cable - Captain Cook Park 4.0 $33,000,000 $43,000,000 Captain Cook to Bernice 11.8 $11,000,000 $11,000,000 60.6 $206,000,000 $278,000,000 Construction Estimate Range Table J.11 Compensation Costs – New 230 kV AC Kenai Intertie Compensation ‐ 230 kV Cable option MVAr Fixed Compensation 135 6,350,000$          8,255,000$           SVC compensation 135 48,750,000$        63,375,000$         Total 270 55,100,000$        71,630,000$         Installed Costs ‐ Range Table J.12 Total Costs – New 230 kV AC Kenai Intertie Item Total  Conductor Upgrade  Costs $206,000,000 $278,000,000 Total  Compensation Costs $55,100,000 $71,630,000 Total  Costs $261,100,000 $349,630,000 Costs Range The total installed costs for this option is the combined costs of the transmission lines plus the required compensation. The specialized switching for this project may require an energization resistor in the cable circuit such that the cable could only be energized from one end. Although Alaska Energy Authority Kenai Transmission Study March 7, 2014 Page 47 we have no doubt the project could be technically completed, the project has risk in the switching and performance studies that will be required to define the energization and de- energization sequence. There is a risk that due to the heavy compensation required and the direct connection to hydro, steam and Frame type combustion turbines that sub-synchronous resonance will require mitigating measures. J.9 New Kenai Intertie – 138 kV AC This project is essentially identical to the 230 kV option above, but assumes the line is constructed and operated at 138 kV. Table J.13 Conductor Costs – New 138 kV AC Kenai Intertie Line Section Line Miles Sub Cable - Worz. to Pt. Possesion 18.6 $107,250,000 $153,700,000 Pt. Possession - Captain Cook Park 26.2 $14,250,000 $14,250,000 Land Cable - Captain Cook Park 4.0 $24,750,000 $32,250,000 Captain Cook to Bernice 11.8 $8,250,000 $8,250,000 60.6 $154,500,000 $208,450,000 Construction Estimate Range Table J.14 Compensation Costs – New 138 kV AC Kenai Intertie Compensation ‐ 230 kV Cable option MVAr Fixed Compensation 30 5,300,000$          6,890,000$           SVC compensation 90 37,500,000$        48,750,000$         Total 120 42,800,000$        55,640,000$         Installed Costs ‐ Range Table J.15 Total Costs – New 138 kV AC Kenai Intertie Item Total  Conductor Upgrade  Costs $154,500,000 $208,450,000 Total  Compensation Costs $42,800,000 $55,640,000 Total  Costs $197,300,000 $264,090,000 Costs Range The total installed costs for this option is the combined costs of the transmission lines plus the required compensation. Similar to the 230 kV option, specialized switching for this project may require an energization resistor in the cable circuit such that the cable could only be energized from one end. Although we have no doubt the project could be technically completed and the project has less risk than the 230 kV project, the project has risk in the switching and performance studies that will be required to define the energization and de-energization sequence. There is a risk that due to the heavy compensation required and the direct connection to hydro, steam and Frame type combustion turbines that subsynchronous resonance will require mitigating measures. The implementation will not be straight-forward and could result in unforeseen operating issues. J.10 New Kenai Intertie – 100 kV HVDC Bernice - Beluga This project has not been evaluated in terms of detailed routing and environmental studies as has the other two options, however the HVDC interconnection will be much more straightforward and present less risk than either of the two AC options. The project appears more economically and technically feasible than the 138 kV or 230 kV alternatives. The project also allows a more diverse interconnected system to future generation resources in the Beluga Alaska Energy Authority Kenai Transmission Study March 7, 2014 Page 48 area. The cost estimate below is for an 80 MW, mono-pole system with redundant submarine cables. If redundant cables are not required, the cost of the cables could be reduced by 35- 40%. Table J.16 Cost Analysis – New 100 kV HVDC Kenai Intertie +/‐ 100 kV HVDC  Beluga ‐ Bernice Qty Submarine  Cable  (33 mi) 33 74,050,000$        113,256,000$       SVC compensation (100 MW) 2 60,500,000$        82,500,000$         Total 35 134,550,000$      195,756,000$       Installed Costs ‐ Range Alaska Energy Authority Pre/Post - Watana Transmission Study March 17, 2014 Page 235 J Regulation Resource Study Alaska Energy Authority Regulation Resource Study Technology Recommendation and Cost Estimates March 7, 2014 John DL Hieb David W. Burlingame, P.E. March 7, 2014 Page ii Summary of Changes Revision Revision Date Revision Description 0 August 6, 2012 Initial Rough Draft 1 March 7, 2014 Report Revision Based on Comments Received from AEA Table of Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................. 1  1 INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................... 3  2 REGULATION RESOURCES .................................................................................. 4  3 AVAILABLE ENERGY STORAGE TECHNOLOGIES .............................................. 5  3.1 Lead-Acid .......................................................................................................................... 5  3.2 Nickel-Cadmium ................................................................................................................ 6   3.3 Nickel Metal Hydride ......................................................................................................... 6  3.4 Lithium-Ion ........................................................................................................................ 7  3.5 Sodium-Sulfur ................................................................................................................... 7  3.6 Vanadium-Redox .............................................................................................................. 7  3.7 Zinc-Bromine ..................................................................................................................... 8  3.8 Advanced Flywheels ......................................................................................................... 8  3.9 Applicable Technologies for Railbelt Regulation Application ............................................ 9  4 PRELIMINARY WIND ANALYSIS ............................................................................ 9  4.1 Regulation Resource Power Requirement ........................................................................ 9  4.2 One Hour Regulation Resource Energy Requirement .................................................... 10  4.3 Battery Life Evaluation .................................................................................................... 17  5 TECHNOLOGY RECOMMENDATION .................................................................. 19  5.1 Financial Considerations ................................................................................................. 19  5.2 Economic Analysis – Advanced Lead-Acid vs. Lithium-Ion ............................................. 20  6 SIX HOUR ENERGY NEEDS ................................................................................ 22  6.1 Wind Regulation .............................................................................................................. 22  6.2 Loss of Kenai Tie ............................................................................................................ 28  6.3 Gas Storage Description and Costs ................................................................................ 33  7 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ...................................................... 34  8 REFERENCES ....................................................................................................... 36  March 7, 2014 Page iii List of Tables Table 1: Regulation Shortfall and Feathering Analysis Results ................................................... 13  Table 2: Regulation Shortfall and Feathering Analysis Results ................................................... 16  Table 3: Energy Storage Systems Cost Update ............................................................................ 20  Table 4: Battery Life Based on Battery Capacity ......................................................................... 21  Table 5: Battery Initial Installation Cost and 20 Year Project Cost ............................................. 22  Table 6: 52 MW Wind Schedules for September 1 through September 2 .................................... 25  Table 7: Six-Hour Regulation Simulation Results for a 52 MW Wind Farm .............................. 27  Table of Figures Figure 1: Desired Regulation Characteristic ................................................................................. 11  Figure 2: Desired Regulation Characteristic ................................................................................. 15  Figure 3: Battery Cycle-Life vs. Depth of Discharge ................................................................... 17  Figure 4: Cycle Counting Method ................................................................................................ 18  Figure 5: Six Hour Energy Needs Based on Wind Schedule ........................................................ 23  Figure 6: Wind Power for First Provided Days ............................................................................ 25  Figure 7: Summer Valley Loss of Kenai Tie at Maximum Flow ................................................. 30  March 7, 2014 Page 1 Executive Summary The intent of this phase of the study is to provide a recommendation on the technology and develop a budgetary cost estimate of regulation technology for the Railbelt. The selected regulation resource should enable the electrical system to accept more renewable energy by alleviating the gas constraints on utility generation that are currently prohibiting its development and secondarily provide contingency reserves for loss of generation or transmission resources in the Railbelt. The study evaluated the impact of the single transmission line from the Kenai and the changing generation characteristics of the Railbelt. These factors were included in the selection and sizing of the regulation resources evaluated in the study. Due to both gas and electrical system constraints faced by the Railbelt utilities, the ability to regulate an intermittent resource such as wind generation is limited. In order to deal with these system constraints a regulation resource that could use energy storage to regulate an intermittent wind resource is required prior to developing a renewable energy portfolio for the Railbelt. The changing generation technology of the Railbelt has a dramatic impact on the regulation capability of the Railbelt. As the Railbelt utilities move towards smaller, more efficient units that more closely matches their capacity requirements, the chances of having “excess” regulation capability on the system to respond to unexpected events decreases dramatically. Even if sufficient gas supplies were available, operating capacity to respond to unexpected changes in non-dispatchable renewable energy or the loss of the Anchorage – Kenai Intertie will be minimal. Consequently, flexible regulation resources must be developed to allow additional renewables to be incorporated into the system, protect against sudden loss of generation or transmission resources, and to optimize the use of the new generation of high-efficiency gas generation. This study evaluated three major technologies and their applicability in the Railbelt. These three technologies were: Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS), Flywheel or rotating inertia technology, and Flexible Gas Storage (FGS). The selected technologies would augment the regulation capability of the Railbelt hydro resources and be used in conjunction with other regulation capabilities of the Railbelt. The criteria used for the regulation evaluation were that no single event should result in the loss of load in the Railbelt and that the regulation system must work with any single regulation resource out of service or unavailable. For example, if the Kenai intertie was out service and hydro regulation was unavailable or if hydro was not scheduled for generation, the remaining regulation resources in the Southcentral Railbelt must be capable of providing the required regulation. The driving force for determining the regulation requirement in the existing system is the loss of the single Anchorage – Kenai Intertie under maximum import conditions. Following the retirement of the large gas turbines, this contingency will be the largest resource loss for the Southcentral area. The regulation requirements of the Railbelt are divided into short-term regulation requirements caused by variations in load and variable generation and long-term regulation required by sustained wind ramp events, loss of transmission interconnections, or the loss of a generation unit. The long-term regulation requirements exceed the capabilities of flywheel technology, consequently, this technology was dropped from consideration. March 7, 2014 Page 2 BESS and FGS technologies are ideally suited for the Railbelt and can be used in complimentary fashions to provide the optimum system performance. During normal operation, regulation would be provided by a combination of BESS, FGS and hydro resources. The system is capable of providing the required regulation following the loss of any one regulation resource. By utilizing complimentary regulation resources, the costs and sizes of each resource can be optimized to meet the Railbelt needs. The BESS was sized to be the primary resource for short-term variable energy deviations from renewable projects such as wind or solar or from the instantaneous loss of generation. The goal for sizing the BESS was to provide regulation such that that the reliability of the Railbelt would be maintained at approximately its current levels following the addition of variable generation to the grid. The target is to provide enough regulation energy such that on average only twelve events which exceed the regulation capabilities of the BESS are expected during an average year. The requirements for FGS were developed to enable the Southcentral utilities sufficient storage at gas generation plants to provide fuel for thermal regulation following the loss of the largest contingency (Anchorage-Kenai Intertie). The thermal regulation capacity must be capable of allowing the utilities to schedule gas from in-ground storage at the next scheduling interval, estimated at 6 hours. Based on these criteria, we recommend the utilities use a BESS and on-site gas storage systems to provide the required regulation during both the short-term and long-term events. With the construction of the Beluga – Bernice tie, the BESS should be constructed with a capacity/energy rating of 25 MW/ 14 MWH and the FGS should be constructed to provide 1.91 MCF (262.5 MWh) to cover the small wind farm and the loss of one of the Kenai ties under maximum import conditions. Both the proposed BESS system and the FGS systems can be constructed in blocks either simultaneously or independently. However, construction of the facilities in blocks will increase the total costs over the duration of the project. If the HVDC line is not constructed, the size of the BESS and FGS will increase significantly. The final size will be determined by the largest expected transfer of the single Kenai – Anchorage Intertie. To maintain reliability equivalent to the HVDC system, the BESS capacity would need to be increased to approximately 100 MW. It is unlikely that this BESS could be economically installed; therefore, lower import or lower reliability measures would need to be adopted. For the larger regulation requirement we recommend the FGS be located at two different locations with thermal generation. Two different locations are recommended to maximize the availability of on-line and off-line regulation resources. The cost of the recommended alternative is as follows: Description Wind Farm Size Capacity Energy Costs BESS – HVDC 17 MW 25 MW 14 MWh $26.7 M FGS – HVDC 17 MW NA 1.91 MCF (262.5 MWh) $18.2 M March 7, 2014 Page 3 1 Introduction The purpose of this report is to provide the results of a regulation resource technology evaluation and a preliminary cost estimate for the recommended alternative. EPS will recommend a regulation technology to provide the best-fit for the regulation application. EPS will then provide the life-cycle costs of different storage technologies based on their ability to meet the regulation needs. The full breadth of the study includes the evaluation of BESS, FGS and Flywheel technologies in the South-central Railbelt area. Each of these technologies was evaluated independently and in combination with each other in order to provide the optimum solution for the Railbelt utilities. The primary goal of the regulation resource is to provide the Railbelt utilities the ability provide regulation capability for renewable energy resources in the region that cannot be regulated by the current generation’s fuel supply system. In addition to providing regulation for renewable energy projects, the proposed system’s secondary goal is to provide response to the loss of the Anchorage-Kenai intertie which will soon be the largest operating contingency in the Southcentral area. It is assumed that the Railbelt transmission planning study will recommend a second line connecting the Kenai Peninsula with the Southcentral transmission system (the Beluga – Bernice Lake HVDC Intertie). The regulation requirements were studied with and without this second transmission line to determine the impact on the regulation size and technology. However, due to the impact on transfer capability of the second transmission line between the Kenai and Anchorage, this study reduced the maximum import level into Anchorage from 125 MW to 75 MW. The regulation resource must be capable of relieving the gas constraints placed on the Southcentral utilities by both gas transportation and gas producing entities in providing regulation for both non-dispatchable resources and system contingencies. The system should be flexible in its response and implementation. No single failure of a regulation resource should result in the lack of regulation capability in the system. The regulation resource must also be designed to not place scheduling requirements on the Railbelt generation, it must be available if no hydro is scheduled to meet system load. The system should also be flexible in terms of its implementation and construction, allowing for modular implementation if budgetary constraints require it. The regulation technologies to be evaluated are as follows:  Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) – A BESS consists of large battery systems designed to provide both energy input to the system during generation shortfall and absorb energy during generation excess conditions  Flexible Gas Storage (FGS) – FGS consists of compressed gas storage facilities located at or near thermal generation resources. FGS can provide stored gas to generation during energy shortfalls or absorb scheduled gas during excess energy production.  Flywheel Technology – Flywheel technology consists of using the inertia of a rotating mass to provide or absorb energy stored in the rotating mass to the power system. Earlier flywheels were directly connected to the power system and their discharge or absorption was determined by frequency fluctuations of the power system. Modern inertia systems are connected by an inverter system, allowing the characteristics of the flywheel to be manipulated by the inverter controller. March 7, 2014 Page 4 2 Regulation Resources As this study is highly sensitive to initial assumptions, it is important that the various project assumptions be understood when evaluating the results of the study. The following sections highlight the major assumptions used in the study, along with the expected impact of the assumptions. In order to determine the energy and power requirements provided by the proposed storage devices, the current and expected future regulation capabilities must be defined. EPS assumed the following regulation capabilities for the various Railbelt resources:  2015 Cases: o Natural Gas Turbines  Due to gas scheduling constraints, the Railbelt natural gas turbines will provide no regulation power or energy other than the requirements to meet the scheduled load ramp (absent the installation of flexible gas storage).  The gas turbines are set on a six-hour schedule that should not be revised except for emergency conditions. If the severe wind ramp events occur as infrequently as a couple of times per year, then the capability of changing the gas schedules at the hour will be analyzed as it pertains to the storage capabilities. However, excursions greater than one time per month (one average) must be compensated by other means. o Hydro Turbines  The hydro turbines at Cooper and Eklutna will provide no regulation power or energy during the hour.  The hydro resource schedules will be fully dispatchable at the hour from the maximum to minimum capabilities of the units. This will result in “ponding” water during those times when wind is available and hydro is scheduled, but is being displaced by wind energy.  The hydro resources may not be scheduled 24 hours/day for energy delivery to the utilities. o Wind Turbines  The study will assume no capability to forecast wind power output or ramps other than utilizing the same day patterns to predict the next few hours. This will provide a solution that will be capable of responding to the most likely, unconstrained wind changes.  Self-regulation by feathering the wind turbine blades will be evaluated as part of the storage solutions.  Both large and small wind farm sizes will be evaluated. EPS has projected wind power outputs for both wind farm sizes.  It is assumed that the northern Railbelt system will provide the regulation for the wind generation at Eva Creek. Additionally, since there is only one tie to the northern system, the two areas must be able to be operated so as to not impact the other, or in the extreme case, operated islanded from each other.  2025 Cases: March 7, 2014 Page 5 o Watana Hydro Addition  The proposed Watana hydro plant will not provide any sub-hour regulation power or energy during the hour due to downstream flow restrictions.  Time Frames: o Since the utilities must account for all wind variations in order to maintain frequency stability, the required power and energy will be analyzed for several different time frames including 20, 30, and 60 minutes for electrical energy requirements and up to six hours for the flexible gas storage options. o Since the hydro resource schedules are able to change at the hour, the 60- minute time frame will take precedence over the other time frames, however, it is recognized that the majority of hydro resources are only available through a single contingency transmission line unless the Beluga-Bernice Lake HVDC line is constructed and that hydro resources are not typically scheduled 24-hours/day. In addition to the regulation requirements, the capacity and energy requirements for the loss of the largest intertie and largest unit will be evaluated. o The installation of a second Anchorage – Kenai transmission line will reduce the maximum capacity lost in the Anchorage area to 30 MW for the loss of the existing Anchorage – Kenai Intertie.  Criteria o Due to the critical nature of the regulation requirements, the regulation system must be capable of operation during the loss of any single regulation source, i.e. loss of stored energy, loss of hydro, loss of gas storage. The system will not be required to operate during an N-2 condition. 3 Available Energy Storage Technologies This section gives a basic summary of the battery and flywheel technologies that are currently available. The applicability for each technology for use as a regulation resource is determined. For each technology that is deemed applicable, an economic analysis will be performed to determine the lowest-cost option for the Railbelt regulation resource. 3.1 Lead-Acid The lead-acid battery is the most mature battery technology with well over 100 years of service. Currently, there are three types of lead-acid batteries. The first of which is the flooded cell lead- acid battery. This technology is the most common form of the lead-acid battery. This technology uses lead/ lead alloy plates that will react with a sulfuric acid electrolyte to produce the movement of charge. The flooded cell lead-acid battery has the advantage of being the lowest cost battery option with excellent shelf life, and good efficiency. The main problems with the flooded cell lead-acid battery are the numerous environmental concerns and the low cycle-life (only a couple hundred cycles for deep discharges). Since the regulation application will require thousands of cycles per year, the flooded cell lead-acid battery should not be considered for a regulation application. The second type of lead-acid battery is the valve regulated lead-acid battery (VRLA). The VRLA battery was designed to reduce some of the maintenance concerns with the flooded cell lead- March 7, 2014 Page 6 acid battery. Unfortunately, the changes required to reduce the maintenance needs further reduced the cycle-life of the battery, as such, should not be considered for a regulation application. The third type of lead-acid battery is the advanced lead-acid. Due to continuing research into the lead-acid technology, some breakthroughs in the electrode materials have resulted in drastically improved battery cycle-life. With the cycle-life improvement, the advanced lead-acid batteries could be a potential solution for providing regulation services for the intermittent wind resource and should be further investigated, and included in the economic analysis. The two main competing companies using advanced lead-acid batteries are Axion Power and Xtreme Power. The Xtreme Power dynamic power resource (DPR) has been used in conjunction with several wind farm applications in Hawaii, and has recently been proposed as the battery technology to provide 36 MW, 24 MWh in conjunction with a large wind farm in Texas. This Texas installation represents one of the largest battery installations in the world, and is on the same scale as would be required for a Railbelt regulation resource. At a much smaller scale, Axion Power has recently connected to the PJM regulation market. This connection is significant in that it is also a regulation application that requires many charge/discharge cycles. The advanced lead-acid battery is recommended for further consideration as an option for the Railbelt regulation resource. 3.2 Nickel-Cadmium The nickel-cadmium battery technology is the most common nickel-electrode battery in the utility industry. The nickel-cadmium battery is a favored alternative to the traditional lead-acid batteries due to the advantages of 1) greater depth of discharge, 2) greater tolerance of extreme temperature variation, 3) greater tolerance to over/under charging, and 4) lower maintenance requirements. This battery technology does have some setbacks that include 1) lower efficiency than lead-acid and, 2) environmental concerns due to the cadmium. Although the nickel-cadmium battery is superior to the traditional lead-acid battery in performance, it does have a higher rate of self-discharge and requires continuous charge maintenance. The Railbelt system has experience with a nickel-cadmium battery system since the GVEA BESS uses the nickel-cadmium technology. The GVEA BESS was designed for VAr support, spinning reserve, and power system stabilization, but it was not designed for regulation. Due to the relatively limited cycle-life of nickel-cadmium batteries and the maturation of the nickel metal hydride battery, this technology should not be considered for a regulation application. 3.3 Nickel Metal Hydride The Nickel Metal Hydride battery (NiMH) has basically displaced the nickel-cadmium battery since it has better energy density, better cycle-life, and no heavy metals (fewer environmental concerns). This battery technology was used in the early Toyota Prius Hybrid vehicles (the newest plug-in model uses lithium-ion). Due to the use in the plug-in hybrid vehicle market, these batteries are among the most field-tested solutions. The NiMH battery technology does not have the same discharge capabilities that a Ni-Cd battery has. Hence, NiMH batteries are used more often for low-current applications such as portable computers and cell phones, while the Ni-Cd batteries are used for high current applications such as portable power tools [2]. The Ni-MH batteries have slightly worse charge retention than their Ni-Cd counterparts and would require continuous charge maintenance. Currently, there are no large format NiMH batteries. Large format NiMH cells would be better suited to a large-scale stationary battery system for utility use. The NiMH battery has largely March 7, 2014 Page 7 been replaced by the lithium-ion technologies in consumer electronics, and does not have the same level of investment that it once had. Due to these factors, the Nickel Metal Hydride battery would not be a good selection for the Railbelt regulation application. 3.4 Lithium-Ion The lithium-ion battery technology has rapidly taken over the consumer electronics industry due to its energy density advantage over the nickel metal hydride battery technology. This battery technology comes in several flavors based on the specific chemistry of the cathode. The different types include lithium-ion cobalt, lithium-ion manganese, lithium-ion phosphate, and lithium-ion titanate. The different chemistries offer differing specific power (charge/discharge rate), safety characteristics, and cycle-life [1]. The Chevrolet Volt and the newest Toyota Prius vehicles use lithium-ion battery packs. The selection of the lithium-ion technology for the transportation sector suggests that the regulation market might be an acceptable utility application for this technology since the frequent battery usage associated with a hybrid vehicle is similar usage that would be seen in utility regulation applications. Additionally, the new manufacturing capacity required by the electric vehicle industry will have a price reduction effect due to economies of scale. The lithium-ion batteries have several desirable characteristics such as long-cycle lives, good energy density, and high power density. The lithium-ion batteries, however, are more expensive than many of the competing battery technologies, but due to their superior performance, particularly the excellent cycle-life, this battery technology should be considered for the regulation resource project. 3.5 Sodium-Sulfur The sodium-sulfur battery is currently the most widely used utility-scale battery technology. It has been heavily used in Japan by TEPCO (Tokyo Electric Power Company) and is produced by NGK. There are several installations in the United States. The sodium-sulfur battery must maintain high operating temperatures (> 250°C). As such, the batteries must be heavily insulated to maintain the temperature, and when the batteries are not providing power, must be heated via resistor banks. These batteries are primarily used for uninterruptible power supplies in Japan, but are beginning to see applications such as load shifting and wind smoothing here in the United States. There was a sodium-sulfur battery fire on September 21, 2011 which has brought some scrutiny toward the battery safety. The cause has not been identified, and the production of these batteries has been put on hold until the safety concerns are resolved. The sodium-sulfur batteries advantages are that the technology has a high round-trip efficiency. It has good energy density and cycle-life for large discharge depths (>5,000 at 90%), but poor cycle-life for smaller discharge depths (45,000 at 10%). The sodium-sulfur technology is not well-suited to frequent charge/discharge as would be expected with a regulation application. The sodium-sulfur battery technology should not be considered for the Railbelt regulation application. 3.6 Vanadium-Redox The Vanadium-redox battery is a flow type battery. Flow batteries store their energy in liquid electrolytes, and pump the liquid to a fuel cell where the electro-chemical reactions occur. The vanadium-redox battery basically stores the energy in different ionic forms of vanadium. One of March 7, 2014 Page 8 the advantages of this flow battery system is that the energy capacity (MWh) and the power capability (MW) can be sized separately based on the application. For example, if more energy is needed, simply adding electrolyte storage tanks will increase the battery energy. This is a desirable attribute for matching a vanadium-redox battery to an application that may require additional capacity at a later date. The vanadium-redox battery technology is being developed by Prudent Energy. This battery technology is currently being tested at the University of Alaska Fairbanks. The vanadium-redox battery has decent AC-to-AC efficiency of 70% to 75%, good cycle-life, and good reliability. The vanadium-redox battery has some disadvantages such as have high cost, low energy density, and a limited number of installations in the field. The vanadium-redox battery technology is better suited to applications requiring several hours of stored energy such as peak shaving or energy arbitrage. Due to these disadvantages, the vanadium-redox battery is not recommended for the Railbelt regulation application. 3.7 Zinc-Bromine The zinc-bromine battery is also a flow type battery. This technology has a significant promise, but has very limited field applications. During charging, metallic zinc is plated from the electrolyte onto the negative electrode and bromide is converted to bromine at the positive electrode. During discharge, the metallic zinc dissolves into the electrolyte. The zinc-bromine technology has several advantages over the vanadium-redox battery. Zinc- bromine batteries have better energy density, lower cost, and fewer environmental concerns since zinc-bromine technology uses less toxic materials. However, the zinc-bromine batteries do not have independent sizing like the vanadium-redox battery. Also, the power capacity of the zinc-bromine battery is low which limits the charge/discharge rate. The zinc-bromine battery technology is being developed and manufactured by ZBB Energy Corp. and Premium Power Corp. ZBB Energy has more utility scale projects online, but still has limited experience in the utility sector. Due to the poor power capability of this technology, a 50 MW system would require at least 150 MWh of storage. This would add to the cost of such a system compared to other technologies that could have a 50 MW / 50MWh configuration. Another disadvantage of this battery technology is that the battery maintenance requires “stripping”. Stripping is performed by discharging the battery cell down to zero volts. This will remove all zinc from the negative electrode. This process is performed to increase efficiency, and ensure consistent operation of all battery cells. Due to the poor power capability, the need for ‘stripping”, and the minimal field applications the zinc-bromine technology should not be considered for the regulation application. 3.8 Advanced Flywheels Flywheels convert the electrical energy from the grid and convert it into rotating kinetic energy. The advanced flywheels spin at high speeds. In order to reduce the frictional losses, these flywheels operate with magnetic bearings in a vacuum. In order to maintain structural integrity at high rotational speeds, these flywheels are made of high-tech composite materials. These advanced flywheels can charge and discharge without performance degradation which makes them ideally suited to regulation applications. Unfortunately, the advanced flywheel systems are quite expensive. The flywheel technology is primarily used in uninterruptible power supply applications. There are several flywheel manufacturers, but only Beacon Power is marketing towards utility applications. All the other companies are marketing toward uninterruptible power supplies. Beacon Power has a 20MW, 5 MWh flywheel system used for March 7, 2014 Page 9 the New York regulation market. This project cost a reported $69 million. The Railbelt regulation application will need at least five times the storage, and that would make the flywheel option too expensive for the hour-long energy needs. Advanced flywheels are not recommended for the Railbelt regulation application. 3.9 Applicable Technologies for Railbelt Regulation Application The need for near-constant charging and discharging characteristics of a regulation application removes several technologies from consideration based on limited cycle-lives (nickel-cadmium, sodium-sulfur, traditional lead-acid). Limited field experience and high costs also removes some technologies from consideration (vanadium-redox, advanced flywheels). The two technologies that should be further investigated are advanced lead-acid batteries, and lithium-ion battery technology. 4 Preliminary Wind Analysis 4.1 Regulation Resource Power Requirement 4.1.1 52 MW Wind Farm With the assumption that the regulation resource must provide all the regulation within the hour, the wind data was analyzed to determine the power capacity needed to fully regulate a large wind farm with a capacity of 52 MW. The wind data was provided by Clarity Analytical in a one- minute time series showing wind farm power output. The maximum power required by the regulation resource was determined by the maximum inter-hour power change. For each minute in the two years of analyzed wind data, the inter-hour maximum and minimum wind power output were found and compared. Using this method, the maximum inter-hour power change for the wind farm was approximately a net of 48.25 MW for the 52 MW wind Farm. Therefore, the estimated wind farm output can almost go from maximum power output to zero within one hour. In order for the regulation resource to prevent the rest of the Railbelt from seeing power fluctuations from the wind farm, the regulation resource, including the option of curtailment must compensate for the full net power of 48 MW. EPS recommends a regulation resource with at least 50 MW power capability in order to fully regulate the wind farm. 4.1.2 17 MW Wind Farm With the assumption that the regulation resource must provide all the regulation within the hour, the wind data was analyzed to determine the power capacity needed to fully regulate a smaller wind farm with a capacity of 17 MW. The wind data was provided by Clarity Analytical in a one- minute time series showing wind farm power output. The maximum power required by the regulation resource was determined by the maximum inter-hour power change. For each minute in the two years of analyzed wind data, the inter-hour maximum and minimum wind power outputs were found and compared. Using this method, the maximum inter-hour power change for the wind farm was approximately a net of 17 MW for the 17 MW wind Farm. Therefore, the estimated wind farm output can almost go from maximum power output to zero within one hour. In order for the regulation resource to prevent the rest of the Railbelt from seeing power fluctuations from the wind farm, the regulation resource, including the option of curtailment must compensate for the full net power of 17 MW. EPS recommends a regulation resource with at least 17 MW power capability in order to fully regulate the wind farm. March 7, 2014 Page 10 4.2 One Hour Regulation Resource Energy Requirement 4.2.1 52 MW Wind Farm One way of determining the regulation energy requirement was based on the worst case one- hour need. This need is based on the upward regulation requirement to compensate for the wind output. The worst case scenario is the one-hour interval that represents the maximum amount of regulation energy that the utilities must provide for in the regulation scenario. Conditions where the wind turbines are operating near cut-out or are experiencing severe fluctuations are assumed to be curtailed by the operating utility. The wind was analyzed for each year of data available. For each minute of wind data, the change in wind output was integrated over a one-hour time period to provide the necessary energy for that hour. The worst-case hour would require 36 MWh from the regulation resource. Sizing the regulation resource to provide for the worst case scenario would result in an expensive, over-sized regulation resource. A simple control method was developed in an attempt to minimize the battery energy sizing using two years’ worth of wind data. This method and its results are described in the next few paragraphs. First, the worst-case hourly regulation requirement based on the initial wind power was calculated from the two years’ worth of wind data. This worst case regulation was calculated using a very simple method. The next hour wind schedule was set to the value of the wind plant at the beginning of the hour. Any downward movement in the wind would be balanced out by the regulation resource such that the net power out of the wind farm plus the regulation resource would stay flat for the entire hour. The worst case energy requirement was tabulated for each 2 MW range of wind starting power. The resulting energy need was calculated and put on a graph to visualize the results. The following two examples should provide some assistance in understanding the blue curve shown below in Figure 1. The blue curve represents the largest amount of regulation energy required to fully regulate the wind farm output based on the initial power output at the beginning of the hour.  For a starting wind power output of 0 to 2 MW, the worst case energy needs for a wind down ramp is 1.86 MWh. This would occur if the wind started at 2 MW and quickly ramped down to 0 MW and stayed there for the rest of the hour.  For a starting wind power output between 32 and 34 MW, the worst case energy needs for a wind down ramp is 27.1 MWh. Again, this would occur if the wind quickly ramps down from the starting value to near zero and stays there for the rest of the hour. A linear characteristic was selected to represent the necessary battery regulation based on the starting wind power output. The slope of this line is approximately 0.83 MWh required per MW initial power output. The characteristic is shown in red in Figure 1. It is assumed that the battery power rating is such that the battery can provide a power output equal to the large wind farm plant output (50 MW). The red characteristic curve shows a desired regulation resource charge level. A control strategy should attempt to keep the regulation resource energy at the desired energy in real time. By controlling the regulation resource to the resource characteristic, two benefits are realized: 1. For lower wind power outputs (0 – 30 MW), the regulation resource would provide enough energy for all wind down ramps. In order to minimize the regulation resource energy requirement, the loss of a large amount of wind power will require grid regulation resources to survive. This can occur when the blue curve is above the red curve for large starting power outputs (30 – 50 MW). The regulation resource should be sized to keep the occurrences of this shortfall to fewer than once per month. March 7, 2014 Page 11 2. By maintaining a minimum charge level that will survive all wind down ramps, the regulation resource will have a maximum amount of room to absorb energy for wind up ramps. This will minimize the need to feather the wind turbine blades and maximize the amount of energy captured from the wind farm. Figure 1: Desired Regulation Characteristic  Stated again, the characteristic shown in Figure 1 would represent the desired regulation from the regulation resource up to its energy limit (25MWh in this example). There will be instances, if the wind is near its maximum power output, when there can be a regulation resource shortfall. When the blue curve is above the red curve, it is possible to run into these shortfall conditions. The battery energy management system should try to keep the battery state of charge near the red regulation characteristic. It is not prudent to always keep the battery charged near its maximum output since this would mean that the battery could not absorb the positive changes in wind power. So in order to maximize the battery’s usefulness, the battery should be kept near the desired regulation characteristic. This way the battery has the maximum ability to absorb the wind energy when its power increases while always maintaining enough energy to survive severe wind down ramps. Due to the limitation of battery sizing, there will be times when the battery will have insufficient energy to fully regulate all wind down ramps. Additionally, there will be times when the battery does not have sufficient room to absorb the wind up ramps. The wind plant can be controlled to limit the up ramps to prevent battery overcharging, but results in unused wind energy. For the extreme wind down ramps, the grid will need to supply for the regulation shortfall. To determine the number of hours, and amount of shortfall and feathered energy, a simulation was run for the two years’ worth of wind data. This simulation can determine the effect that battery sizing and 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 0 102030405060Regulation Resource Required Energy (MWh)Initial Wind Power (MW) Desired Regulation Resource Characteristic (25 MWh Capacity) DesReg Up Reg March 7, 2014 Page 12 control strategy have on the amount and frequency of regulation shortfall, and wind turbine feathering. The following battery control strategy was implemented to keep the battery near the desired regulation characteristic using the following equation. ܹ݅݊݀௦௖௛௘ௗ௨௟௘ ൌ ܣݒ݁ݎܽ݃݁௑௦௔௠௣௟௘௦ ൅൫ܧ݊݁ݎ݃ݕ஻௔௧௧௘௥௬ െ ܧ݊݁ݎ݃ݕ஽௘௦௜௥௘ௗ ൯ ∗ ܥ݋ݎݎ݁ܿݐ݅݋݊ ܨܽܿݐ݋ݎ Equation 1: Basic Wind Scheduling Method  The Average term is equal to the average value of the wind power output for x number of samples before the hour schedule begins. The battery energy is the available energy in the battery at the start of the hour. The desired energy is the energy value taken from the characteristic from Figure 1 using the average power as a look-up value. The correction factor is a value used to determine how quickly the controls will adjust the battery to the desired energy level. For example, let’s assume that the battery has an energy level of 20 MWh, and the wind has been steady at 20 MW. The desired energy is approximately 17 MWh. In order to maximize the ability of the battery to absorb energy if the wind increases, the battery charge should be reduced to the ideal value of 17 MWh. Therefore, the wind schedule will be adjusted for the next hour so that the battery will discharge its excess energy. Going through the calculation Wind schedule = 20 MW + (20 MWh – 17 MWh) * (1/5hours) = 20.6 MW. The wind schedule for the next hour would be 20.6 MW. Again, if the wind holds steady at 20 MW, the battery will discharge 0.6 MW for the entire hour to maintain the wind schedule of 20.6 MW. By providing this energy, the battery will be closer to the desired energy value for the next hour. A larger correction factor will move the battery charge level to the desired level more quickly. This control strategy was implemented for the two years’ worth of wind data using different battery energy ratings and correction factors. Table 1 shows the results of the analysis. March 7, 2014 Page 13 Table 1: Regulation Shortfall and Feathering Analysis Results  Average Shortfall Case Battery Size Correction Factor Samples Total  Wind Feathered Shortfall % Feathered Hours 1 35 0.2 5 152666 233 0.4 0.2% 5 2 35 0.5 5 152666 625 0.0 0.4% 0 3 30 0.2 5 152666 870 5.5 0.6% 6 4 30 0.5 5 152666 2008 5.4 1.3% 2 5 25 0.2 5 152666 1830 21.1 1.2% 11 6 25 0.5 5 152666 3892 18.5 2.5% 5 7 20 0.2 5 152666 3100 82.8 2.0% 48 8 20 0.5 5 152666 6280 52.0 4.1% 16 1a 35 0.2 5 162228 369 1.2 0.2% 3 2a 35 0.5 5 162228 773 0.0 0.5% 0 3a 30 0.2 5 162228 1122 1.2 0.7% 3 4a 30 0.5 5 162228 2319 0.0 1.4% 0 5a 25 0.2 5 162228 2203 21.7 1.4% 19 6a 25 0.5 5 162228 4424 16.2 2.7% 9 7a 20 0.2 5 162228 3613 120.5 2.2% 70 8a 20 0.5 5 162228 7018 67.5 4.3% 25 Energy (MWh) Cases 1-8 show the results for the first year of wind data, whereas 1a – 8a represent the second year. Battery sizes were selected from 35 MWh to 20 MWh in increments of 5 MWh. Correction factors of 0.2 and 0.5 were used for each battery size using the 5 minute wind average to determine the wind scheduling. Case 1 resulted in 233 MWh of lost energy due to the need to feather the blades when the battery could not absorb the entire wind increase which corresponds to 0.2% of the annual wind energy. Case 1 resulted in shortfall of only 0.4 MWh that occurred over 5 separate hours throughout the year. The grid would need to supply this additional energy. The general observations from the results shown in Table 1 are that as the battery energy level decreases, the amount and frequency of feathering and shortfalls increases. Also, the smaller correction factor results in less energy lost due to feathering, but more regulation shortfall. The recommended regulation resource should only rely on the grid for regulation for emergency conditions. For this reason, a 20 MWh battery that would rely on the grid to supply shortfall energy more than once per month should not be considered. The 25 MWh battery should be the smallest battery considered for further analysis for a 52 MW wind project since it would have between 5 and 19 shortfall hours per year. Economic analysis will determine the appropriate amount of battery storage as it compares to the value of the unused wind energy, and frequency of battery pack replacement. 4.2.2 17 MW Wind Farm Similar to the 52 MW scenario, the wind output was analyzed for each year of data available. For each minute of wind data, the change in wind output was integrated over a one-hour time period to provide the necessary energy for that hour. The worst-case hour would require 13 MWh from the regulation resource. Sizing the regulation resource to provide for the worst case scenario would result in an expensive, over-sized regulation resource. The same control method used for the 52 MW wind farm was used for the 17 MW wind farm. The worst case energy March 7, 2014 Page 14 requirement was tabulated for each 1 MW range of wind starting power. The resulting energy need was calculated and put on a graph to visualize the results. The following two examples should provide some assistance in understanding the blue curve shown below in Figure 2. The blue curve represents the largest amount of regulation energy required to fully regulate the wind farm output based on the initial power output at the beginning of the hour.  For a starting wind power output of 0 to 1 MW, the worst case energy needs for a wind down ramp is 0.95 MWh. This would occur if the wind started at 1 MW and quickly ramped down to 0 MW and stayed there for the rest of the hour.  For a starting wind power output between 14 and 15 MW, the worst case energy needs for a wind down ramp is 12.1 MWh. Again, this would occur if the wind quickly ramps down from the starting value to near zero and stays there for the rest of the hour. A linear characteristic was selected to represent the necessary battery regulation based on the starting wind power output. The slope of this line is approximately 0.83 MWh required per MW initial power output. The characteristic is shown in red in Figure 2. It is assumed that the battery power rating is such that the battery can provide a power output equal to the wind farm plant output (17 MW). The red characteristic curve shows a desired regulation resource charge level. A control strategy should attempt to keep the regulation resource energy at the desired energy in real time. By controlling the regulation resource to the resource characteristic, two benefits are realized: 3. For lower wind power outputs (0 – 12 MW), the regulation resource would provide enough energy for all wind down ramps. In order to minimize the regulation resource energy requirement, the loss of a large amount of wind power will require grid regulation resources to survive. This can occur when the blue curve is above the red curve for large starting power outputs (12 – 17 MW). The regulation resource should be sized to keep the occurrences of this shortfall to fewer than once per month. 4. By maintaining a minimum charge level that will survive all wind down ramps, the regulation resource will have a maximum amount of room to absorb energy for wind up ramps. This will minimize the need to feather the wind turbine blades and maximize the amount of energy captured from the wind farm. March 7, 2014 Page 15 Figure 2: Desired Regulation Characteristic  Stated again, the characteristic shown in Figure 2 would represent the desired regulation from the regulation resource up to its energy limit (10 MWh in this example). There will be instances if the wind is near its maximum power output, when there can be a regulation resource shortfall. When the blue curve is above the red curve, it is possible to run into these shortfall conditions. The battery energy management system should try to keep the battery state of charge near the red regulation characteristic. It is not prudent to always keep the battery charged near its maximum output since this would mean that the battery could not absorb the positive changes in wind power. So in order to maximize the battery’s usefulness, the battery should be kept near the desired regulation characteristic. This way the battery has the maximum ability to absorb the wind energy when its power increases while always maintaining enough energy to survive severe wind down ramps. Due to the limitation of battery sizing, there will be times when the battery will have insufficient energy to fully regulate all wind down ramps. Additionally, there will be times when the battery does not have sufficient room to absorb the wind up ramps. The wind plant can be controlled to limit the up ramps to prevent battery overcharging, but results in unused wind energy. For the extreme wind down ramps, the grid will need to supply for the regulation shortfall. To determine the number of hours, and amount of shortfall and feathered energy, a simulation was run for the two years’ worth of wind data. This simulation can determine the effect that battery sizing and control strategy have on the amount and frequency of regulation shortfall, and wind turbine feathering. The following battery control strategy was implemented to keep the battery near the desired regulation characteristic using the following equation. 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19Regulation Required (MWh)Initial Power (MW) Desired Regulation Resource Characteristic with 10 MWh Capacity (17 MW Wind) Worst Case Reg Desired Characteristic March 7, 2014 Page 16 ܹ݅݊݀௦௖௛௘ௗ௨௟௘ ൌ ܣݒ݁ݎܽ݃݁௑௦௔௠௣௟௘௦ ൅൫ܧ݊݁ݎ݃ݕ஻௔௧௧௘௥௬ െ ܧ݊݁ݎ݃ݕ஽௘௦௜௥௘ௗ ൯ ∗ ܥ݋ݎݎ݁ܿݐ݅݋݊ ܨܽܿݐ݋ݎ Equation 2: Basic Wind Scheduling Method  The Average term is equal to the average value of the wind power output for x number of samples before the hour schedule begins. The battery energy is the available energy in the battery at the start of the hour. The desired energy is the energy value taken from the characteristic from Figure 2 using the average power as a look-up value. The correction factor is a value used to determine how quickly the controls will adjust the battery to the desired energy level. For example, let’s assume that the battery has an energy level of 8 MWh, and the wind has been steady at 7 MW. The desired energy is approximately 7 MWh. In order to maximize the ability of the battery to absorb energy if the wind increases, the battery charge should be reduced to the ideal value of 7 MWh. Therefore, the wind schedule will be adjusted for the next hour so that the battery will discharge its excess energy. Going through the calculation Wind schedule = 7 MW + (8 MWh – 7 MWh) * (1/5hours) = 7.2 MW. The wind schedule for the next hour would be 7.2 MW. Again, if the wind holds steady at 7 MW, the battery will discharge 0.2 MW for the entire hour to maintain the wind schedule of 7.2 MW. By providing this energy, the battery will be closer to the desired energy value for the next hour. A larger correction factor will move the battery charge level to the desired level more quickly. This control strategy was implemented for the two years’ worth of wind data using different battery energy ratings and correction factors. Figure 2 shows the results of the analysis. Table 2: Regulation Shortfall and Feathering Analysis Results  Average Shortfall Case Battery Size Correction Factor Samples Total  Wind Feathered Shortfall % Feathered Hours 1 8 0.2 5 56320 1035 13.75 1.8% 20 2 8 0.5 5 56320 1933 7.2 3.4% 9 3 10 0.2 5 56320 545 1.2 1.0% 5 4 10 0.5 5 56320 1053 0.5 1.9% 2 5 12 0.2 5 56320 176 0.2 0.3% 2 6 12 0.5 5 56320 402 0 0.7% 0 7 14 0.2 5 56320 15.1 0 0.0% 0 8 14 0.5 5 56320 402 0 0.7% 0 1a 8 0.2 5 59083 1101 13 1.9% 31 2a 8 0.5 5 59083 2097 5 3.5% 12 3a 10 0.2 5 59083 589 0.3 1.0% 4 4a 10 0.5 5 59083 1154 0 2.0% 0 5a 12 0.2 5 59083 198 0 0.3% 0 6a 12 0.5 5 59083 444 0 0.8% 0 7a 14 0.2 5 59083 3.7 0 0.0% 0 8a 14 0.5 5 59083 14.6 0 0.0% 0 Energy  (MWh) Cases 1-8 show the results for the first year of wind data, whereas 1a – 8a represent the second year. Battery sizes were selected from 8 MWh to 14 MWh in increments of 2 MWh. Correction factors of 0.2 and 0.5 were used for each battery size using the 5 minute wind average to determine the wind scheduling. Case 3 resulted in 545 MWh of lost energy due to the need to feather the blades when the battery could not absorb the entire wind increase which March 7, 2014 Page 17 corresponds to 1.0% of the annual wind energy. Case 1 resulted in shortfall of only 1.2 MWh that occurred over 5 separate hours throughout the year. The grid would need to supply this additional energy. The general observations from the results shown in Figure 2 are that as the battery energy level decreases, the amount and frequency of feathering and shortfalls increases. Also, the smaller correction factor results in less energy lost due to feathering, but more regulation shortfall. The recommended regulation resource should only rely on the grid for regulation for emergency conditions. For this reason, a 8 MWh battery that would rely on the grid to supply shortfall energy more than once per month should not be considered. The 10 MWh battery should be the smallest battery considered for further analysis for a 17 MW wind project since it would have between 0 and 5 shortfall hours per year. Economic analysis will determine the appropriate amount of battery storage as it compares to the value of the unused wind energy, and frequency of battery pack replacement. 4.3 Battery Life Evaluation It is well understood that as batteries go through charge and discharge cycles, their effective life is reduced. Additionally, large charge/discharge cycles degrade the battery life more quickly than the small cycles. Many battery manufacturers provide curves that show the expected number of charge/discharge cycles based on the depth of discharge. The newer battery technologies can have a million or more cycles at low discharge depths, but approximately 3,000 cycles at 80% depth of discharge. A curve showing a SAFT Li-ion battery characteristic is shown in Figure 3. Figure 3: Battery Cycle‐Life vs. Depth of Discharge  In order to determine the length of battery life, the wind data was analyzed to give a count of the different depths of discharge. Figure 4 is shown to explain the method behind the cycle March 7, 2014 Page 18 counting. The blue trace shows a fictional wind power output over the course of 5 hours. The red trace represents the wind schedule. The area between the two curves would be where the battery would either charge or discharge to keep the total wind plus battery output equal to the schedule. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 0123456Power (MW)Time  (hours) Cycle Counting Methodology Wind Output Wind Schedule Figure 4: Cycle Counting Method  In the first hour, there are several very small wind fluctuations. The analysis assumed that deviations less than 500kW away from the schedule would not cause the battery to charge or discharge. As such, the first hour has no charge/discharge cycles. The second hour, the wind increases, therefore the battery would charge. The total energy absorbed by the battery (the area between the curves represents the energy). During the third hour, the wind decreases, and the battery would discharge. At the beginning of the fourth hour, the wind is still decreasing. However, since the battery did not switch from charging to discharging, the beginning of the fourth hour counts as a continuation of the third hour discharge. This five hour example results in two large charge/discharge cycles followed by three smaller cycles. Analysis was performed using the described cycle counting method and the simulated wind data for a large wind farm. The charge/discharge cycles were tabulated for the entire year and resulted in approximately 21,000 cycles. The majority of the cycles occur at small discharge depths of less than 10%. Using an Excel curve fit equation to describe the battery cycle-life characteristic shown in Figure 3, the expected battery life was calculated at 8.7 years. An example of the calculation is shown below: ∑஺௖௧௨௔௟ ௖௬௖௟௘௦ ௔௧ ௡% ஽ை஽ ோ௔௧௘ௗ ௖௬௖௟௘௦ ௔௧ ௡% ஽ை஽ ଵ଴଴%௡ୀ଴%,ଶ%… for n = 6% ହ଻ଶ ସ଴଴଴଴଴ ൌ 0.143% of total battery life There were 572 charge/discharge cycles between 4 and 6 percent for the 35 MWh battery control strategy shown in Table 1 as case 1. At 6% depth of discharge, the SAFT Li-Ion battery could withstand 400,000 cycles. Therefore, the 4-6% discharges account for 0.1% yearly battery life degradation. This was added to all the other depth of discharge ranges, and resulted in an annual battery degradation of 11.5%, or a battery life of 8.7 years for the first year’s data set, and 8 years for the second year’s data set. Using the same controls, a battery with a 25 MWh size would last for 6.3 years and 5.7 years respectively. When combined with the expected need for feathering and regulation shortfall the economic impact of battery size can be March 7, 2014 Page 19 determined. This analysis was performed for both the 17 MW wind farm and the 52 MW wind farm options. 5 Technology Recommendation When combined with the mature technology and lowest installation price, the recent breakthroughs in the lead-acid battery technology make the advanced lead-acid battery technology a front-runner for the stationary utility application market. The Sandia report further reinforces the market trend toward lead-acid batteries with carbon enhanced electrodes such as those provided by Xtreme Power, and Axion Power. However, with lithium-ion’s dominance in the consumer electronics industry and its move into the hybrid electric vehicle market, the lithium-ion battery technology should be considered. The lithium-ion battery technology does provide superior performance when compared to the advanced lead-acid battery technology. The high initial price of lithium-ion systems could be offset by its superior cycle-life which would mean fewer replacement battery packs. Therefore, it is important to study the impact of battery pack replacement costs when determining the best-fit battery technology. 5.1 Financial Considerations The Sandia National Laboratories recently updated an Energy Storage Systems Cost report [2,3]. This report compared the different storage technologies and application types. The energy storage types studied included lead-acid batteries, sodium-sulfur (Na/S), zinc-bromine (Zn/Br), vanadium-redox (V-redox), Lithium-ion, compressed air (CAES), Pumped Hydro, High-speed flywheels, and super capacitors. The analysis studied the 10-year ownership of the storage device using the following factors:  Efficiency  Cycle-life  Initial Capital Costs  Operations and Maintenance  Storage-device Replacement Of course, the storage system cycle-life, and replacement costs are dependent on the application. The Railbelt regulation application is most closely represented in the Sandia report [3] by frequent, short-duration discharges. Table 3 which was taken from the Sandia report shows the costs in $/kW of the different technologies and applications. The most applicable data set is the row inside the gold box. The results of this study give an idea of the cheapest technological selection. The flywheel and super-capacitors are not suited for the Railbelt regulation application due to their limited storage capacities. The cheapest choices are the Carbon-enhanced electrode Lead-acid batteries, and the zinc-bromine batteries. While the cost analysis used for the Sandia report did not have the level of detail that will be used to determine the battery cycle-life for the Railbelt application, but it does provide a good baseline. March 7, 2014 Page 20 Table 3: Energy Storage Systems Cost Update  The battery technologies that should be evaluated in greater depth for the Railbelt regulation application are the advanced lead-acid battery technology and the lithium-ion technology. By combining the battery sizing, expected regulation shortfall, expected wind feathering, battery efficiency, and battery pack replacement frequency, the battery lifetime costs can be estimated. The battery size and replacement frequency are closely related. If a large battery is purchased, it will have a large initial capital cost. Since the battery is large, the same charge/discharge cycles would result in a lower depth of discharge. Both the advanced lead-acid and the lithium- ion battery technologies can withstand orders of magnitude more charge/discharge cycles at low discharge depths. The result is that a larger battery will last longer and may need fewer battery pack replacements during the battery system design life as was shown in the Battery Life Evaluation section. 5.2 Economic Analysis – Advanced Lead-Acid vs. Lithium-Ion A preliminary economic analysis was performed to compare the advanced lead-acid technology against the lithium-ion technology. For the 52 MW and 17 MW wind farms’ various battery energy capacities, the economic analysis took into account the following costs for assuming a project life of 20 years and a discount rate of 5%:  Initial battery cost  Cost of battery losses (lithium-Ion batteries have better round-trip efficiency)  Battery pack replacement(s) The battery life was calculated using the method discussed in the Battery Life Evaluation section. The analysis determined the expected time between battery pack replacements. The results of this analysis are shown below in Table 4. March 7, 2014 Page 21 Table 4: Battery Life Based on Battery Capacity  10 6.2 6.6 26.5 12 8.3 8 30.4 14 11.2 9.8 34.8 25 5.2 6.3 22.4 30 6.4 7.4 24.7 35 8 8.7 27 42 11.4 11.3 31.3 17 MW Wind  Farm Battery  Size (MWh) Xtreme   Power Saft Li ‐Ion Altair Nano  Li ‐Tritanate Xtreme   Power Saft Li ‐Ion Altair Nano  Li ‐Tritanate Battery  Size (MWh) 52 MW Wind  Farm The following assumptions were made for the economic analysis:  A 5% discount rate was used  Cost for energy lost due to battery inefficiency is assumed to be 100 $/MWh  Interconnection costs including a building to house the battery, the step-up transformer, and circuit breakers will cost a total of $2.25M. The same interconnection costs will be used for all energy storage capabilities, even though a smaller battery will need a smaller building.  The Xtreme Power Battery costs that are based on a smaller-scale battery quote are: o $500,000 per MW of power conditioning system o $850,000 per MWh of initial battery pack installation o $300,000 per MWh of replacement battery packs  The Saft Li-Ion battery costs that are based on smaller-scale battery quote are: o $500,000 per MW of power conditioning system o $2,500,000 per MWh of initial battery pack installation o $1,250,000 per MWh of replacement battery packs (No quote received, assumed ½ initial cost)  The Altair Nanotechnolgies Li-Titanate battery costs that are based on smaller-scale battery quote are: o $1,500,000 per MW of power conditioning system o $2,417,000 per MWh of initial battery pack installation o $1,208,500 per MWh of replacement battery packs (No quote received, assumed ½ initial cost) The results of the basic net present cost economic analysis are shown below in Table 5. March 7, 2014 Page 22 Table 5: Battery Initial Installation Cost and 20 Year Project Cost  Case (MWh) Initial $20‐year $Initial $20‐year $Initial $20‐year $ Case  10 19.25$        26.41$        35.75$        58.84$        51.92$        53.53$         Case  12 20.95$        27.04$        40.75$        59.38$        56.75$        58.36$         Case  14 22.65$        27.11$        45.75$        65.91$        61.59$        63.19$         Case (MWh) Initial $20‐year $Initial $20‐year $Initial $20‐year $ Case  25 48.50$        66.95$        89.75$        133.96$      137.68$      141.16$       Case  30 52.75$        72.40$        102.25$      152.66$      149.76$      153.25$       Case  35 57.00$        73.28$        114.75$      166.94$      161.85$      165.33$       Case  42 62.95$        74.68$        132.25$      166.44$      178.76$      182.25$       17 MW  Wind Farm Xtreme Power Saft Li ‐Ion Altair Nano Li ‐Titanate Xtreme Power Saft Li ‐Ion Altair Nano Li ‐Titanate 52 MW Wind Farm The economic results show that the initial cost is the dominant term of the 20-year project cost. Also, the high cost of the lithium-ion battery technologies is not offset by its superior cycle-life. This basic analysis shows that the lithium-ion technology is not as cost effective as the Xtreme Power even though the Case 25 Xtreme Power battery packs needed three sets of replacement battery packs over the 20-year project life. Due to the large price differential, additional factors that would have slightly improve the lithium economics such as: smaller building and lower shipping costs due to better energy density, lower maintenance costs, and a better environmental image would likely not make up for the significant price differential. EPS recommends the advanced lead-acid technology be used as the regulation resource. When selecting a battery energy storage size, the frequency of shortfall hours should be considered. Shortfall hours are the hours that the battery runs out of energy during the hour, and the grid must supply for the shortfall. If a 25 MWh battery is selected to regulate the 52 MW wind farm, the number of shortfall hours would be between 5 and 19 hours per year. It would be up to the utilities to determine the best mix of battery size and frequency of shortfall. The 42 MWh case has been included since it is a combination of 25 and 16.67 MWh. This battery size would mimic the control characteristics of the 25 MWh, but would leave 16.67 MWh as a reserve for transient response to the loss of a generation unit, or the Kenai tie. The shortfall hours would be eliminated since the 16.67 reserve capacity could be used for severe wind ramp events, but during typical wind conditions, the 16.67 MWh would be reserved for a trip event. The 42 MWh battery system would be more expensive, but would require fewer replacement battery packs, and would provide the additional system benefit of transient event response to the loss of a unit or Kenai tie. 6 Six Hour Energy Needs 6.1 Wind Regulation The one hour analysis assumes the ability to change the unit schedules each hour. The single contingency outage of the Kenai tie can island the Cooper Lake, and Bradley Lake regulation resources. There are also many hours during a typical day when hydro resources are not scheduled to meet the utility’s energy demands. The loss of these regulation resources severely March 7, 2014 Page 23 limits the Anchorage area utilities’ ability to deal with the intermittent wind resource. This is due, in part, to the current gas delivery contracts which are scheduled every six hours. So, when either the Kenai tie is not energized or hydro is not scheduled, additional storage is necessary to regulate the wind farm output or the wind farm must be curtailed. Due to the amount of energy required for a six hour window (up to 300 MWh for a 52 MW wind farm), the battery and flywheel technologies will not be economical at this scale. Therefore, the addition of flexible fuel storage will be investigated as a means to regulate the intermittent wind resource while the Kenai regulation resources are not available. Even with a second transmission line connecting the Southcentral transmission system to the Kenai Peninsula, the loss of either transmission line can reduce the transfer capacity by approximately 30 MW. Flexible fuel storage would be needed to make up this shortfall until new gas schedules can be implemented. Again, a power and energy requirement must be determined before any economic analysis can be performed. The six-hour energy requirement for wind regulation will be determined in much the same way that the one hour requirement was evaluated. The wind data was analyzed and the largest wind down ramps were sorted by the initial wind power output were plotted in blue on Figure 5. As an example, let’s assume the wind starts out at 25 MW. The worst possible case would be an immediate ramp down to zero followed by six hours at 0 MW. This would result in an energy need of 150 MWh (25 MW* 6 hours). However, in the field, the wind never ramps down immediately, so the curve actually shows the worst case at 25 MW initial wind power to be 145 MWh. A linear curve was created to represent the six-hour energy needs against the wind starting power, and is shown in red. Figure 5: Six Hour Energy Needs Based on Wind Schedule  0 50 100 150 200 250 300 0 1020304050606 Hour Energy Needs (MWh)Starting Power (MW) 6 Hour Energy Needs Assuming No Capability to  Forecast Wind Ramps (52 MW Wind Farm) Worst Energy Needs Characteristic March 7, 2014 Page 24 The years of wind data were analyzed by setting up a six-hour scheduling method. This assumes that the Kenai intertie is out of service which isolates the hourly regulation resources on the Kenai. Several different methods for creating a six-hour wind schedule were tested. Each method that was tested assumed there is no ability to forecast wind production. Each of these schedules was set and maintained for the entire six-hour time frame. For example, if the wind schedule is 25 MW, and the wind stops at the beginning of the first hour, the rest of the six hour scheduling period, the 25 MW wind schedule will be provided by the regulation resource. The first method of setting a wind schedule uses the average wind output from the last 5 minutes of the previous hour as the basis for a wind schedule for the next six hours. This method simply averages the 5 minutes before the hour begins and uses the average as the schedule. The basic assumption made by the first method is “whatever the wind is doing now, it will continue in the future.” Second, the average wind power output of the previous six hours was used to create the schedule for the next six hours. Again, the assumption is that the wind will continue what it did in the previous six hours, but by using a longer time-frame, will not be influenced by short-term wind fluctuations. Third, the six-hour time frame from the previous day was used. This method assumes that the wind will follow a daily cycle, and the six hours from the previous day are a good indication of what will occur today. Finally, a six-hour weighted average wind power was used. The weighting was assigned as (hour-1)*0.5 + (hour-2)*0.2 + (hour-3)*0.1 + (hour-4)*0.1 + (hour-5)*0.05 + (hour-6)*0.05. This method puts extra weight on the most recent hour, but would help remove some of the shorter term volatility from the wind scheduling. A simulation was run for a 17 MW and a 52 MW wind farm with each of the scheduling methods discussed above. During this simulation, the wind data was used to determine the impact of different scheduling philosophies on the amount of wind spilled, and the amount of regulation shortfall. Based on the wind schedule, the regulation resource would either supply or absorb power to maintain the wind schedule using the same formula used for the one hour regulation analysis shown as Equation 1. The energy provided by the regulation resource during the six hour schedule was calculated. For the six hour periods where more energy to regulate a downward wind ramp is required than was available at the beginning of the six-hour schedule, the time frame is listed as a shortfall. For the six-hour periods where more energy to regulate an upward wind ramp is required than was available at the beginning of the six-hour schedule, the time frame is listed as feathered, and the energy difference would be “spilled”. The first few days of data is shown in Figure 6 and Table 6 below. March 7, 2014 Page 25 Figure 6: Wind Power for First Provided Days  Table 6: 52 MW Wind Schedules for September 1 through September 2  Hour Schedule  Type Initial StorageScheduleEnergy Used Schedule  Type Initial Storage Schedule Energy Used 05 Min Avg 123  MWh 18.4 58.8 6  Hr Avg 123  MWh 18.4 58.8 65 Min Avg 64.2MWh 8.4 48.6 6 Hr Avg 64.2  MWh 10.1 58.5 12 5 Min Avg 15.7  MWh 1.5 8.9 6  Hr Avg 5.8  MWh 0.3 1.4 18 5 Min Avg 6.8MWh 0.3 ‐115.8 6 Hr Avg 4.4  MWh 0.0 ‐117.5 24 5 Min Avg 122.6  MWh 27.2 ‐107.0 6 Hr Avg 121.9 MWh 20.4 ‐147.5 30 5 Min Avg 229.5  MWh 41.1 ‐26.7 6 Hr Avg 269.5 MWh 46.2 3.5 36 5 Min Avg 256.2  MWh 42.5 197.5 6 Hr Avg 266.0 MWh 45.8 217.4 42 5 Min Avg 58.7  MWh 7.3 ‐49.5 6 Hr Avg 48.6  MWh 8.2 ‐43.8 0Prev Day 6hr Avg 123  MWh 18.4 58.8 6hr  Weighted 123 MWh 18.4 58.8 6Prev Day 6hr Avg 64.2  MWh 10.1 58.5 6hr  Weighted 64.2 MWh 9.1 52.8 12 Prev Day 6hr Avg 5.8  MWh 0.3 1.4 6hr  Weighted 11.3 MWh 1.0 5.7 18 Prev Day 6hr Avg 4.4  MWh 0.0 ‐117.5 6hr Weighted 5.6 MWh 24.2 ‐116.6 24 Prev Day 6hr Avg 121.9  MWh 20.4 ‐147.5 6hr Weighted 123 MWh 43.3 ‐124.8 30 Prev Day 6hr Avg 269.5  MWh 37.4 ‐49.0 6hr Weighted 64.2 MWh 44.5 ‐13.8 36 Prev Day 6hr Avg 300  MWh 0.3 ‐55.8 6hr Weighted 123 MWh 7.0 209.5 42 Prev Day 6hr Avg 300  MWh 0.1 ‐92.9 6hr Weighted 64.2 MWh 20.9 ‐50.9 Figure 6 shows the first four days from the first year of wind power data with each vertical axis line representing a six-hour period. During these 4 days there are three spikes of full/near full 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 0 1440 2880 4320 5760kW Minute Sept 1‐4 Series1 March 7, 2014 Page 26 wind power output. The first spike lasts for a full 12 hours. There are several ramps of the full wind output within the six-hour schedules. Again, without the ability to forecast the wind, these ramps must either be mitigated by the regulation resource, curtailing the wind, or a combination of the two. An improved forecasting system could reduce the energy needs for regulating the wind resources, and should be evaluated by the utilities. However, the impact of a state-of-the- art wind forecasting system was not evaluated as part of this study. Table 6 shows the energy storage usage for the first two days based on the different scheduling methods described above. The top left quadrant shows the five minute averaging method. The top right quadrant shows the six-hour average method. The bottom left quadrant shows the results for the previous day six-hour average method. Finally, the bottom right quadrant shows the results for using a six-hour weighted average scheduling method. The initial storage column lists the amount of gas energy in storage at the beginning of each six-hour time frame. The schedule lists the wind schedule used for the next six-hour time frame. The energy used column lists the amount of gas storage energy that was used or saved during the six-hour time frame. The five-minute average scheduling method example is explained below: At hour zero, the gas storage has 123 MWh of energy. And the wind power output over five minutes preceding the zero hour was 18.4 MW (schedule). During the next six hours, the wind output steadily drops. In order to make up for the shortfall from the schedule, the gas storage supplies the difference between the actual wind power, and the scheduled wind power. The total energy used to maintain the wind schedule was 58.8 MWh. At hour six, the initial storage is 123 MWh – 58.8 MWh = 64.2 MWh. The new schedule is 8.4 MW, and again, the wind power drops to zero over the next six hours, and the gas storage uses another 48.6 MWh. This process was repeated for the entire year. This analysis clearly showed that the best method for creating a schedule in terms of minimizing feathered energy, minimizing shortfall energy, and minimizing total regulation usage was to use the first method of averaging the last five minutes of the previous hour to create a wind schedule. This means that the previous five minutes of wind data did the best job forecasting the next six hours of wind power. This result is not surprising since there is a weak correlation of wind power from day to day. This is easily observed by reviewing minutes 2880, and 4320 which are one day apart and vary by the full wind output. Several year-long operational simulations using the five minute average wind scheduling method were run to determine the frequency of regulation shortfall and wind feathering based on the six-hour regulation resource and correction factor. Table 7 shows the results for a six- hour regulation resource designed for the regulation of wind farm output. March 7, 2014 Page 27 Table 7: Six‐Hour Regulation Simulation Results for a 52 MW Wind Farm  1 300 0.8 152666 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0 2 300 0.5 152666 8.6 32.0 0.0% 3 3 250 0.8 152666 461.7 0.0 0.3% 0 4 250 0.5 152666 289.1 32.8 0.2% 3 5 225 0.8 152666 2361.0 0.0 1.5% 0 6 225 0.5 152666 1397.4 34.5 0.9% 3 7 200 0.8 152666 5767.0 45.5 3.8% 2 8 200 0.5 152666 3329.0 56.7 2.2% 4 1a 300 0.8 162228 0.0 12.0 0.0% 1 2a 300 0.5 162228 0.0 91.3 0.0% 4 3a 250 0.8 162228 592.0 12.0 0.4% 1 4a 250 0.5 162228 380.0 91.9 0.2% 4 5a 225 0.8 162228 2477.8 28.6 1.5% 3 6a 225 0.5 162228 1435.6 98.2 0.9% 4 7a 200 0.8 162228 5406.9 70.8 3.3% 3 8a 200 0.5 162228 3276.0 170.2 2.0% 6 %feathered 6‐hr Schedule  Shortfall CountCaseEnergy  MWh Correction  Factor Total   wind  Feathered  MWh Shortfall   MWh The Energy MWh column lists the size of the gas storage facilities. The Feathered MWh lists the energy that the gas storage facility would not be able to store during the simulation year, and would force curtailment of the wind. The Shortfall MWh column lists the amount of energy that the gas storage facility is unable to supply during the simulation. The 6-hr Schedule Shortfall Count lists the number of six-hour schedules during which the gas storage is insufficient to cover a wind down ramp. Based on these results, a 300 MWh gas storage facility would be capable of providing the storage to fully regulate all wind up and down ramps for a year as shown in case 1. However, in order to minimize the project cost, a storage facility could regulate the large wind farm with as little as 200 MWh. It is recommended that the six-hour energy storage be at least 200 MWh for the purpose of regulating the wind farm output. March 7, 2014 Page 28 Table 8: Six‐Hour Regulation Simulation Results 17 MW Wind Farm  1 100 0.8 56320 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0 2 100 0.5 56320 8.6 18.7 0.0% 3 3 85 0.8 56320 556.0 0.0 1.0% 0 4 85 0.5 56320 351.0 6.0 0.6% 4 5 75 0.8 56320 1694.6 2.0 3.0% 2 6 75 0.5 56320 1085.6 6.7 1.9% 5 7 65 0.8 56320 3229.0 55.0 5.7% 10 8 65 0.5 56320 2124.3 51.2 3.8% 13 1a 100 0.8 59083 0.0 0.1 0.0% 1 2a 100 0.5 59083 8.6 18.7 0.0% 3 3a 85 0.8 59083 589.9 0.5 1.0% 1 4a 85 0.5 59083 366.5 18.7 0.6% 3 5a 75 0.8 59083 1631.6 16.7 2.8% 4 6a 75 0.5 59083 1029.8 32.0 1.7% 6 7a 65 0.8 59083 3354.3 73.2 5.7% 12 8a 65 0.5 59083 2061.3 66.7 3.5% 13 %feathered 6‐hr Schedule  Shortfall CountCaseEnergy  MWh Correction  Factor Total   wind  Feathered  MWh Shortfall   MWh The same analysis was performed to determine the regulation requirements for a 17 MW wind farm as opposed to a 52 MW wind farm. The results of this analysis are shown above in Table 8. The storage sizes were selected to be approximately one third of the sizes studied for the 52 MW wind farm. However, this analysis shows that the percentage of feathered energy is greater for the 17 MW wind farm for a storage facility of proportional size. This suggests that the 17 MW wind farm size could be more volatile and may require more storage as a percentage of the power than a larger wind farm. EPS would not recommend a gas storage facility smaller than 65 MWh for a 17 MW wind farm due to the frequency of energy shortfall, but anything 75 MWh or bigger would be acceptable. The costs of the feathered energy would need to be weighed against the cost of gas storage installation. 6.2 Loss of Kenai Tie A secondary storage system sizing requirement is to compensate for the loss of the largest unit, or the Kenai tie. Since the largest unit on the system in 2015 is expected to be 61 MW, the largest single contingency in the existing transmission system will be the loss of the Kenai tie at its maximum import into the Anchorage area. The line’s existing limit is 75 MW leaving Dave’s Creek substation. When subtracting the loads along the line, this 75 MW import is less than 60 MW in the winter peak conditions, and as much as 68 MW in the summer valley condition. However the loss of the Quartz Creek – Daves line section results in a loss of generation of approximately 86 MW in the winter and 80 MW in the summer. There are a few issues when considering energy storage for the loss of the Kenai tie. First, the ability to reschedule the hydro resources to compensate for the wind ramps is removed since these resources are islanded from the wind. Based on current gas scheduling contracts, the gas turbines are scheduled for six hours at a time. This could result in up to six hours of schedule mismatch. Second, the loss of the power import into the Anchorage area could result in load shedding for cases that have minimal spinning reserve in the Anchorage area. The recommended battery system for this secondary criterion could be used to supply for the lost March 7, 2014 Page 29 import until the balancing authority has sufficient time to start a unit and prevent loadshedding following the loss of the tie. Following the construction of the recommended HVDC Beluga-Bernice Lake transmission line, the outage of the existing Daves Creek – University line would result in a loss of approximately 30 MW of power during the maximum power transfer of 130 MW due to the 100 MW transfer limit of the HVDC Intertie. This could result in the need for 180 MWh (30 MW * 6 hours) of energy storage. Prior to the construction of the new HVDC Intertie, or if the HVDC line is not constructed, the maximum import capability into Anchorage is assumed to be 75 MW. In order to give the balancing authority sufficient time to start a unit, the battery must be sized to cover for the loss. PSS/E dynamics simulations were run with the Kenai tie importing 75 MW into the Anchorage area. The case was created with minimal spinning reserve. Setting the case up with minimal spinning reserve will give a worst-case simulation for any loss of generation or import into the Anchorage area. A 50 MW battery system was added to the Railbelt database. The battery was setup with a droop value that would force the battery to full output before the first stage of load shed. The Kenai tie was then tripped. The result of a PSS/E simulation is shown below in Figure 7. It should be noted that the 75 MW import is not the worst case, single contingency event under this import condition. The loss of the Quartz Creek – Daves Creek Line section results in a loss of generation into the Anchorage area of 85-95 MW depending on the loads at Seward and along the University – Daves Creek transmission line. However, the loss of this line is extremely rare and it is unknown if the Railbelt utilities would limit the imports to cover the loss of this line or accept limited load shedding should it occur. For purposes of this study, we have assumed the utilities will accept limited load shedding for this contingency. March 7, 2014 Page 30 Figure 7: Summer Valley Loss of Kenai Tie at Maximum Flow  The top set of traces show the frequencies at various places in the Railbelt system. The bottom traces show the battery power outputs in red (MW) and blue (MVAR). The battery system prevented load shed by quickly ramping up to its maximum power output of 50 MW. This simulation resulted in the continued low frequency 30 seconds after the initial trip since there is no additional room on any of the units to restore the frequency to 60 Hz. Without operator intervention, the system would remain in this state until a unit could be started to restore frequency and off-load the battery. It is assumed that a unit could be started in 20 minutes after the loss of the Kenai tie. Therefore, a minimum of 16.67 MWh of battery storage is needed in March 7, 2014 Page 31 order to supply 50 MW between the time when the tie is tripped, and a unit is started. The unit would then run using the gas storage system for the remainder of the six-hour schedule. After starting a gas turbine using gas storage and restoring the load along the Anchorage – Kenai intertie, approximately 60 MW would be required from the gas turbine until the gas schedules can be changed. In order to provide this energy for six hours, the energy requirement would be approximately 60 MW for six hours or 360 MWh. This energy storage would be sufficient to prevent scheduling conflicts with the gas delivery companies for the worst case conditions of a) maximum import into the Anchorage area from the Kenai tie and, b) the loss of the tie immediately after the current gas schedule begins. The 360 MWh of energy storage would not be able to provide for any additional wind down ramps during the six-hour schedule. Therefore, in order to provide some margin, EPS recommends that the storage requirement be increased by 25% to 450 MWh to allow for additional gas storage to provide for some regulation for wind up or down ramps after the loss of the Kenai tie. While the 450 MWh of storage is not enough energy to deal with both the loss of the full wind output and the Kenai tie, it will be able to fully handle the loss of the Kenai tie along with a moderate wind down ramp. The loss of the full wind plant output coupled with the loss of the tie at its maximum import should be considered an N-2 contingency, and should not be part of the requirements of the storage system. With the Kenai tie open, the utilities can change the gas schedules every six hours. With the 450 MWh of gas energy storage, the wind output could be fully regulated. In fact, the 52 MW wind could be regulated with at least 200 MWh of gas storage as was shown in case 1 in Table 7. Assuming the second Anchorage – Kenai intertie is built, the loss of the existing intertie would result in the loss of 30 MW of capacity for the Anchorage utilities. In order to regulate the 17 MW wind farm, and provide for the 30 MW lost capacity 250 MWh (70 MWh + 180 MWh) would be needed. In order to regulate the 52 MW wind farm and provide for the 30 MW lost capacity, 380 MWh (200 MWh + 180 MWh) would be needed. March 7, 2014 Page 32 Figure 8: Loss of AC Anchorage ‐ Kenai Intertie, 17 MW BESS, 30 MW Lost Import  Figure 8 shows the simulation result for the loss of the AC Anchorage – Kenai intertie with a 17 MW battery. It can be seen that the 17 MW battery can prevent the load shedding. The top left set of traces show the frequencies at various places in the Railbelt system. The top left traces show the battery signals such as power output (blue), per-unit energy (red), reactive power (green). The bottom left set of traces show the line flows in (MW). The bottom right traces show the bus voltages in per-unit at various places throughout the Railbelt system. This simulation resulted in the continued low frequency 30 seconds after the initial trip since there is no additional room on any of the units to restore the frequency to 60 Hz. Without operator intervention, the system would remain in this state until a unit could be started to restore frequency and off-load the battery. It is assumed that a unit could be started in 20 minutes after the loss of the AC Anchorage – Kenai tie. In order to provide some margin for the condition where the wind is decreasing, and the AC Anchorage – Kenai Intertie is tripped, the recommended power and energy ratings are 25 MW and 14 MWh respectively. This would allow the capability of regulating a smaller wind ramp down coupled with the loss of the tie, but would not be able to respond to the full loss of the wind farm and the tie. This study assumes that the recommended HVDC tie is being constructed. However, another option is to upgrade the existing line to allow a transfer capability of 125 MW. This case was not March 7, 2014 Page 33 evaluated in this study. The minimum battery size and energy would be based on the trip of the upgraded transmission line and the loss of the 125 MW import into the Anchorage area. For this transmission configuration, the BESS should be sized as part of the overall transmission plan. 6.3 Gas Storage Description and Costs In order to provide the energy required for longer term regulation of a six hour schedule, a battery system is not financially reasonable. Therefore, EPS recommends the use of a compressed natural gas storage system. EPS recommends the use of containerized storage modules which store the natural gas at high pressure in trailer-sized transportable modules. For a design capacity of 360 MWh, eleven storage modules would be required. These storage modules would have approximately 25% of “emergency” capacity that could be used to supply regulation energy for extreme wind ramp events. Each storage module has 4 tanks that contain a total of 355,440 SCF of natural gas compressed to 3,600 psig. Eleven storage modules would results in a total storage capacity of 3,909,840 SCF. This storage could supply approximately 450 MWh of energy. The gas storage facility would be placed immediately adjacent to an existing power plant. The storage facility consists of the gas storage modules, a compressor, and an electric driver motor, and associated piping etc. The compressor requires a 1250 hp motor and would take the gas from the pipeline which operates at 100 psig and compress it to 3,600 psig for storage. The compressor and motor driver will be inside a pre-engineered metal building with concrete floor slab and foundation which will protect the compressor and driver motor from the elements and provide comfortable working conditions for maintenance. The storage modules will be located outdoors, anchored to concrete slabs. The compressor building will incorporate electric unit heaters for periods when the compressor is shut down for maintenance or repair. The building would also have a ventilation system capable of discharging the heat rejected from the motor and compressor. The ventilation system would also provide adequate air movement to prevent the buildup of flammable gas within the building. The facility would tie in to the existing natural gas pipeline serving the power plant. The natural gas would be piped to the storage facility compressed and stored when the wind turbines are producing excess energy. When the wind turbines are providing less power than scheduled, the generators would ramp up and draw natural gas from the storage modules. During the storage discharge, a pressure regulating station will knock down the gas pressure from its storage pressure of 3,600 psig to the generator input pressure of 100 psig. The total cost for a 360 MWh gas storage facility would be approximately $22.8 million. The cost analysis assumed a two gas storage facilities with associated compressors, buildings, site piping, storage modules, and labor expenses. A compressor building is included for the ML&P power plant facility. The cost analysis assumes that the Southcentral Power Plant has available room to house the natural gas compressor. One facility would have five gas storage modules while the other would have six. Two storage facilities would provide increased flexibility for maximizing the availability of on-line and off-line regulation resources. Five different gas storage sizes were evaluated depending on the design criteria and the size of the wind farm.  For a 17 MW Wind Farm o A 70 MWh gas storage facility with 25% “emergency” capacity (87.5 MWh) March 7, 2014 Page 34 o Gas storage located at one generation station o Total system cost of $9.3 million  For a 17 MW Wind Farm with capability to pick up 30 MW import reduction for 6 hours o A second Anchorage – Kenai intertie line is built, but the loss of the existing line would result in a 30 MW reduction in the Anchorage import capacity o A 250 MWh gas storage facility would be needed o Gas storage located at two generation stations o Total system cost of $18.2 million  For a 52 MW wind Farm o A 210 MWh gas storage facility with 25% “emergency” capacity (262.5 MWh) o Gas storage located at two generation stations for improved availability o Total system cost of $18.2 million  For a 52 MW Wind Farm with capability to pick up 30 MW import reduction for 6 hours o A second Anchorage – Kenai intertie line is built, but the loss of the existing line would result in a 30 MW reduction in the Anchorage import capacity o A 380 MWh gas storage facility would be needed o Gas storage located at two generation stations o Total system cost of $23.5 million  For capacity restoration for loss of largest unit/Kenai Tie o No new Anchorage – Kenai Intertie o A 360 MWh gas storage facility with 25% “emergency” capacity (450 MWh) o Gas storage located at two generation stations for improved availability o Total system cost of $23.5 million 7 Conclusions and Recommendations To provide Railbelt utilities with the ability to regulate both variable generation resources and the loss of the largest contingency in the Southcentral Railbelt, additional regulation resources are required in the Railbelt system. Regulation resources utilizing batteries, flywheels and compressed natural gas were evaluated in this study. Different battery and flywheel technologies were evaluated first by their suitability to a regulation application, and secondarily by their relative cost-effectiveness. Based on the long-term energy requirements, flywheel technology was considered infeasible for the Railbelt system. Based on the suitability and cost- effectiveness, EPS recommends the advanced lead-acid technology. The two main manufacturers of suitable lead-acid technology include Xtreme Power Inc., and Axion Power Inc. This report has focused on the Xtreme Power Inc. specific battery, but it is assumed that the Axion Power manufacturer would provide a system with similar capabilities and costs. The regulation resource sizing has been evaluated using primary and secondary criteria. Primarily, the regulation resource should provide adequate regulation for the intermittent wind resource. Secondarily, the regulation resource could be able to provide adequate response to March 7, 2014 Page 35 prevent load shedding in the Anchorage area for the loss of either a large unit, or the Kenai tie (with or without a HVDC intertie). The power and energy requirements were evaluated separately. For a 17 MW wind farm configuration EPS recommends a power capability of at least 17 MW. For a 52 MW wind farm, EPS recommends a power capability of at least 50 MW. This power capability would be sufficient to regulate the full range of net power from the 52 MW wind farm. Additionally, the 50 MW is the minimum power capability to prevent load-shedding for the loss of the Kenai tie while operating at a maximum import into the Anchorage area. For a 17 MW wind farm, to prevent an excessive number of hours during which the battery cannot account for wind down ramps, the minimum battery energy that should be considered is 10 MWh. The one-hour regulation resource energy capability was evaluated using economic analysis based on several factors including initial purchase price, battery pack replacement frequency, and losses due to battery inefficiency. The lowest installation cost was for a 17 MW, 10 MWh battery energy storage system. For a 52 MW wind farm, to prevent an excessive number of hours during which the battery cannot account for wind down ramps, the minimum battery energy that should be considered is 25 MWh. The one-hour regulation resource energy capability was evaluated using economic analysis based on several factors including initial purchase price, battery pack replacement frequency, and losses due to battery inefficiency. The lowest installation cost was for a 50 MW, 25 MWh battery system. However, a battery system with 42 MWh of energy capacity would be a reasonable alternative. It would increase the original purchase price by 30%, but would provide the additional system benefit of carrying enough storage capacity to provide 50 MW for 20 minutes. The reserve capacity would be enough to provide enough energy to survive the loss of the Kenai tie at 75 MW import in to the Anchorage area without load shedding, and provide enough time to start an additional gas turbine. The 42 MWh battery would only cost 11.5% more over the 20 year life of the project since the battery packs would need less frequent replacement. EPS recommends a battery energy capacity of 25 MWh solely for the regulation of the wind farm. However, with the additional system benefits of a 42 MWh battery, the larger battery energy capacity should be considered as an alternative in the final regulation resource decision process. Additionally, if the DC tie is not built and the utilities move forward with an upgrade of the AC tie, the battery MW/MWH capabilities should be determined as part of the coordinated transmission plan. Similarly, for a 17 MW wind farm and the addition of a HVDC Beluga-Bernice Lake intertie, a BESS capacity of 25 MW and 14 MWH of energy is recommended to prevent load shedding in the Southcentral area following the largest contingency and to provide regulation of the wind resource. In order to minimize costs, it could be possible to implement a battery system with a smaller power capability. An example would be to use the 25 MW battery system to regulate a 52 MW wind farm. During a system configuration with both minimal online reserves, and a risk of losing the full wind output, the wind farm could be curtailed prior to the loss of the total wind farm to prevent an energy shortfall. This would result in a slight reduction of renewable energy over the year, but would provide significant savings in the form of a smaller battery inverter system. Due to the current gas contract schedule, the natural gas delivery amounts are set with six-hour schedules. With the loss of the Kenai tie and the associated hydro regulation resources, the Anchorage area utilities have very little capability to provide regulation for an intermittent resource. With the installation of gas storage facilities, the utilities will have the ability to regulate an intermittent resource such as wind. Again, the sizing of this resource was evaluated using March 7, 2014 Page 36 the primary design criteria of providing wind regulation and the secondary criteria to cover the loss of the Kenai tie. In order to fully regulate the full wind output over a six hour schedule for a 17 MW or a 52 MW wind farm, approximately 100 MWh or 270 MWh of energy is needed, respectively. In order to minimize the costs, the gas storage capacity was reduced to a level that would minimize costs while still minimizing the frequency of storage energy shortfall. The secondary criteria of covering the loss of the Kenai tie would need 360 MWh without a Beluga-Bernice HVDC tie or 180 MWH if the HVDC tie is constructed. In order to survive the worst case loss of the Kenai tie and provide minimal wind regulation, EPS recommends a 25% reserve margin of 90 MWh above the 360 MWh or 450 MWh for the no HVDC option and 45 MWH if the HVDC tie is constructed. 8 References 1. National Rural Electric Cooperative Association, Cooperative Research Network, “Energy Storage for Renewable Energy and Transmission and Distribution Asset Deferral,” November 2009. 2. EPRI-DOE Handbook of Energy Storage for Transmission & Distribution Applications, EPRI, Palo Alto, CA, and the U.S. Depatrment of Energy, Washington, DC: 2003. 1001834. 3. Schoenung, Susan and Eyer, James. Benefit/Cost Framework for Evaluating Modular Energy Storage. SAND2008-0978. 2008.