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Igiugig Wind Resource Report - Nov 2012
Lake And Peninsula Borough Igiugig Wind Resource Assessment Final Report November 9, 2012 prepared for: Lamar Cotten Lake and Peninsula Borough 429 L Street Anchorage, Alaska 99501 Telephone: (907) 301-8737 Facsimile: (907) 246-6602 prepared by: Knight Piésold and Co. 1999 Broadway, Suite 600 Denver, Colorado 80202-5706 USA Telephone: (303) 629-8788 Facsimile: (303) 629-8789 E-mail: denver@knightpiesold.com KP Project No. DV103-00240.06 Rev. No. Date Description Knight Piésold Client 0 11/09/2012 Issued as Final Chris Mertes Lamar Cotten Igiugig Wind Resource Assessment Final Report, Rev 0 ES-1 Lake and Peninsula Borough Igiugig Wind Resource Assessment Final Report Executive Summary This report presents a feasibility-level investigation of the construction of a wind power facility at Igiugig, Alaska, and includes discussions of the site characteristics, wind climate, preliminary cost estimates, and an economic analysis. The report is also based on site visits conducted in September/October 2011 and information from vendors, experience with similar projects, and published information on developed community-size wind power projects. Construction of a wind power facility at Igiugig presents many challenges in part due to its remoteness and distance from a major urban center. The village is located on the Alaska Peninsula, approximately 250 miles southwest of Anchorage, and is accessible by air. The local runway is a 3,000-foot gravel airstrip that is suitable only for small and mid- size aircraft. There is also the possibility of access to the town via the Kvichak River from Bristol Bay. Access by river has not been fully investigated at this time. These factors together with the high costs of mobilization, transport of equipment and materials, and of transmission-line construction in remote areas yield a relatively high cost-per-installed-kilowatt (kW) of wind power. No major environmental obstacle is expected at this time. However, several state and federal agencies will need to be involved from the inception of the project. The current average electrical load for the village is about 40 kW, but the village has a plan to increase population, business and fac ilities which would increase the electrical demand. The concept for this study was to minimize costs by designing a facility that generally meets the current and future needs of the village, while at the same time ut ilizing excess wind power for space heating and hot water. A 34-meter (111.5 foot) meteorological tower instrumented for wind data collection was erected and began recording data in October 2011. Data was collected for one year and the wind resource assessment for the local geographical area was primarily based on the measured data at this tower. The data underwent a rigorous quality assurance process to compensate for the tower shadowing effects on the anemometers and wind vanes. While generating this report data on the electric and thermal loads of the village, the current diesel expenses, and the suitability of a new wind power installation was also gathered. Further, more recent (September 2012) data was collected on the cost of diesel. In order to verify the site suitability for wind turbine installations, and to calculate values of c apacity factor (CF) and annual energy production (AEP) for various turbine configurations, a refined wind flow model was produced based on: measured wind data, correlations to long-term Automated Weather Observing System (AWOS) station data from the local airport, high-definition (1 meter [m]) digital elevation models, and surface roughness. A single turbine model was selected as the most appropriate for installation in Igiugig based on present and future load requirements. The Northern Power 100 Arctic (NP 100) was selected due to its operational ability in low temperatures, good track record of installed machines in Alaska, favorable size (100 kW), and availability of the turbine itself as well as spare parts. Igiugig Wind Resource Assessment Final Report, Rev 0 ES-2 The calculated AEPs, assuming a 10 percent loss (due to turbine availability, electrical losses, soiling, etc.), range between 223 and 234 megawatt hours per year (MWh/yr) depending on the exact turbine site and are associated with high wind penetration levels. An economic analysis using the HOMER© Micropower Optimization Model (U.S. Department of Energy, 2005) [5] was conducted for the NP 100. The HOMER© model output includes several economic measures that show the value of the difference between the wind power alternative and the current diesel-only system. Present worth shows how much the alternative system saves over the project lifetime compared to the diesel-only system, and is the primary measure for comparing the economic feasibility of the two systems. The alternative was compared to the existing diesel system using three prices for diesel fuel, which were determined based on the crude oil price projections of the Energy Information Administration (EIA): the current price of US$7.79 per gallon (associated with a current oil price at US$95/bbl); a price of US$10.41 per gallon (based on a crude oil price of US$127/bbl); and a price of US$11.31 per gallon (based on a crude oil price of US$138/bbl). Results of the economic analysis showed that under current conditions with a population of 69 and diesel price of US$7.79 per gallon, the wind system is not economically attractive. At higher diesel prices, or with expansion of the population to 100, one could easily obtain a positive net-present-value making the project economically attractive. For a long-term diesel price of US$10.41/gal, a reduction in the levelized cost-of-unit-energy (COE) of US$0.06 to US$0.09 per kWh can be obtained from wind generation. The Northern Power 100 Arctic has shown an impressive reliability, though it has only been in the market and operational for less than a decade. Increased savings can be realized if the project is partially funded by state grants. The analysis does not account for emergency maintenance following major unexpected events; that could be a factor for machines having spare parts difficult to retrieve. For this reason, it is recommended that an inventory of spare parts be acquired at the time of project installation. If 80 percent of the project’s initial capital is guaranteed by a state grant, the project becomes more economically advantageous to the local community and Borough. Results are given in Section 5.5. Recommendations for future activities include: x Investigate whether suitable financing is available to develop a wind power installation at Igiugig given the illustrated initial capital costs and economic benefits. x Consult with the local community on the acceptance of a tall turbine near the lake shore. x Initiate permitting process with discussions with state and federal agencies to identify potential environmental and permitting issues. x Identify potential parallel projects that could share the costs for heavy construction equipment, transportation of materials, etc. x Conduct geotechnical investigations at the turbine installation site(s). x Identify and recruit local potential workers for construction activities, with the double benefit of reducing expenses and involving the local community in the project. x Identify suitable contractors and engineering/construction management firms. Igiugig Wind Resource Assessment Final Report, Rev 0 i Lake and Peninsula Borough Igiugig Wind Resource Assessment Final Report Table of Contents Page Executive Summary.............................................................................................................ES-1 Section 1.0 - Introduction......................................................................................................1-1 1.1 Background.........................................................................................................................1-1 1.2 Scope of Work .....................................................................................................................1-1 1.3 Sources of Information.........................................................................................................1-1 1.4 Limitations and Disclaimer....................................................................................................1-1 1.5 Contributors and Contacts....................................................................................................1-2 Section 2.0 - General Site Conditions................................................................................2-1 2.1 Site Location .......................................................................................................................2-1 2.2 Climate ...............................................................................................................................2-1 2.3 Geology ..............................................................................................................................2-1 2.4 Permitting............................................................................................................................2-1 Section 3.0 - Preliminary Wind-Flow Modeling and Tower Installation....................3-1 3.1 Wind Flow Modeling .............................................................................................................3-1 3.2 Potential Sites for Met-Tower Installation...............................................................................3-2 3.3 Site Survey and Data Acquisition ..........................................................................................3-4 3.4 Erection of the Met-Tower ....................................................................................................3-5 Section 4.0 - Refined Wind Resource Assessment .......................................................4-1 4.1 Refined Wind Resource Map................................................................................................4-1 4.2 Turbine and System Alternatives ..........................................................................................4-5 4.3 Annual Energy Production Estimates ....................................................................................4-6 Section 5.0 - Economic Analysis ........................................................................................5-1 5.1 Inputs and Assumptions .......................................................................................................5-1 5.2 Estimated Capital and Replacement Costs............................................................................5-2 5.3 Estimated Operation and Maintenance Costs ........................................................................5-2 5.4 Estimated Diesel Prices .......................................................................................................5-3 5.5 Economic Analysis Results ...................................................................................................5-3 5.6 State Funding Impact...........................................................................................................5-6 Section 6.0 - Environmental and Construction Permitting..........................................6-1 6.1 FAA Permitting....................................................................................................................6-1 6.2 Construction Permitting........................................................................................................6-1 6.3 U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Alaska Department of Fish and Game: Birds, Bats, Endangered Species Protection, Fish Habitat ......................................................6-1 Igiugig Wind Resource Assessment Final Report, Rev 0 ii 6.4 State Historic Preservation Office and Office of History and Archeology ..................................6-2 6.5 Land Uses and Rights-of-Way ..............................................................................................6-2 6.6 Wetlands and Other Waters .................................................................................................6-2 6.7 National Environmental Policy Act Review.............................................................................6-2 6.8 Tentative Cost Estimates Associated with Environmental and Construction Permitting.............6-2 Section 7.0 - Conclusions and Recommendations........................................................7-1 7.1 Wind Feasibility Study Conclusions .......................................................................................7-1 7.2 Other Relevant Remarks......................................................................................................7-1 7.3 Recommendations for Future Activities .................................................................................7-2 Section 8.0 - References .......................................................................................................8-1 Tables Table 1. Average annual wind speed at 37m AGL, average annual energy production (AEP), and capacity factor for three potential wind turbine sites..........................................................4-7 Table 2. Estimated costs for installation of Northern Power 100 Arctic turbine (US$). ......................5-2 Table 3. Economic analysis results for a wind turbine installation with current population of 69 and diesel cost at US$7.79 per gallon....................................................................................5-4 Table 4. Economic analysis results for a wind turbine installation with current population of 69 and diesel cost at US$10.41 per gallon..................................................................................5-4 Table 5. Economic analysis results for a wind turbine installation with current population of 69 and diesel cost at US$11.31 per gallon..................................................................................5-4 Table 6. Economic analysis results for a wind turbine installation with future population of 100 and diesel cost at US$7.79 per gallon....................................................................................5-5 Table 7. Economic analysis results for a wind turbine installation with future population of 100 and diesel cost at US$10.41 per gallon..................................................................................5-5 Table 8. Economic analysis results for a wind turbine installation with future population of 100 and diesel cost at US$11.31 per gallon..................................................................................5-5 Table 9. Economic analysis results for a wind turbine installation with current population of 69 and diesel cost at US$7.79 per gallon, assuming the project is 80 percent funded by the state..5-6 Table 10. Economic analysis results for a wind turbine installation with current population of 69 and diesel cost at US$10.41 per gallon, assuming the project is 80 percent funded by the state. .5- 6 Table 11. Economic analysis results for a wind turbine installation with current population of 69 and diesel cost at US$11.31 per gallon, assuming the project is 80 percent funded by the state. .5- 6 Table 12. Economic analysis results for a wind turbine installation with future population of 100 and diesel cost at US$7.79 per gallon, assuming the project is 80 percent funded by the state..5-7 Table 13. Economic analysis results for a wind turbine installation with future population of 100 and diesel cost at US$10.41 per gallon, assuming the project is 80 percent funded by the state. .5- 7 Table 14. Economic analysis results for a wind turbine installation with future population of 100 and diesel cost at US$11.31 per gallon, assuming the project is 80 percent funded by the state. .5- 7 Figures Figure 1. AWOS Station in Igiugig.................................................................................................3-1 Figure 2. Filled contours of wind speed at 30 m above ground level (agl).........................................3-2 Figure 3. Aerial view of Igiugig with potential site locations denoted by red marks.. ..........................3-3 Figure 4. Wind speed, energy, and direction distribution at ‘Site 04’.................................................3-4 Igiugig Wind Resource Assessment Final Report, Rev 0 iii Figure 5. View of typical surface conditions around the town of Igiugig (and tower after erection in the foreground). ..................................................................................................................3-5 Figure 6. View of the tower fully erected. .......................................................................................3-6 Figure 7. Wind Distribution measured at the Igiugig Met-Tower.......................................................4-2 Figure 8. Wind Rose at the Igiugig Met-Tower................................................................................4-3 Figure 9. Turbulence at location of the met-tower and 33 m AGL compared to with IEC standards. ...4-4 Figure 10. Wind resource map........................................................................................................4-5 Figure 11. Power curve for the Northern Power 100 Arctic (100 kW) wind turbine. .............................4-6 Figure 12. Seasonal electric load at Igiugig......................................................................................5-1 Figure 13. Seasonal thermal load served by the current diesel power house......................................5-2 Appendices Appendix A Final Met Data Report for Igiugig Met Tower Appendix B Measure, Correlate, Predict (MCP) – Results of the Correlation of met data to local AWOS station Appendix C Turbine Production Analysis Report Appendix D Economic Results for Current Population and Electric Demand Appendix E Economic Results for Increased Population and Electric Demand Appendix F Economic Results for Current Population and Electric Demand with 80 Percent Project Funding From State Appendix G Economic Results for Increased Population and Electric Demand with 80 Percent Project Funding From State Igiugig Wind Resource Assessment Final Report, Rev 0 1-1 Lake and Peninsula Borough Igiugig Wind Resource Assessment Final Report Section 1.0 -Introduction 1.1 Background Knight Piésold and Co. (Knight Piésold) was contracted by Lake and Peninsula Borough (LPB) to carry out a feasibility study for the community of Igiugig in the Southwest Alaskan Peninsula to verify the economic viability of a wind-diesel electric generation facility. The hybrid facility could provide lower cost of energy to the local community, which currently relies on diesel generators to provide electricity. Previous studies conducted in the area [3] estimate that the cost of electricity generated by a small wind power fac ility could be up to US$0.13/kWh below the projected cost of electricity from diesel generators with heat recovery. This report highlights the main aspects involved in the study at Igiugig and the results of the economic analysis for the most likely wind turbine alternative. This project (DV103-240/06) is part of a widespread wind regional assessment being carried out at various communities within the LPB boundaries. 1.2 Scope of Work The scope of work included a preliminary and a detailed wind resource assessment (WRA), met-tower installation, site survey to identify suitability of wind turbine installations, and collection of data for input to an economic analysis, namely: village electrical load data, village fuel expenses, vendors’ and contractors’ information, and quotations. Also included in the scope of work is a review of the permitting requirements. Following a site visit and an initial screening process, only one alternative was selected for a more detailed analysis, including a conceptual project layout, an estimate of power generation, a preliminary cost estimate, and an analysis of the economic feasibility. 1.3 Sources of Information Information used during the study included GPS data obtained during the site visit; information on wind data, power and fuel consumption from: the Lake and Peninsula Borough; information on the design of the existing power plant from the Village of Igiugig; information on the physical setting collected by Knight Piésold staff during a site visit; geologic maps and reports, topographic and land-usage maps from the United States Geological Survey (USGS), MODIS (or Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer), the State of Alaska, and the Lake and Peninsula Borough. 1.4 Limitations and Disclaimer This report titled Igiugig Wind Resource Assessment Final Report has been prepared by Knight Piésold and Co. (Knight Piésold) for the exclusive use of Lake and Peninsula Borough (LPB). No other party is an intended beneficiary of this report or the information, opinions, and conclusions contained herein. Any use by any party other than LPB of any of the information, opinions, or conclusions is the sole responsibility of said party. The use of this report shall be at the sole risk of the user regardless of any fault or negligence of LPB or Knight Piésold. Igiugig Wind Resource Assessment Final Report, Rev 0 2-1 Section 2.0 -General Site Conditions 2.1 Site Location The village of Igiugig is located on the Alaska Peninsula approximately 250 miles southwest of Anchorage and is accessible only by air. The village is located at the headwaters of the Kvichak River on Lake Iliamna which is a major sport fishing destination. The local runway is a 3,000-foot gravel airstrip that is suitable only for small and mid-size aircraft (up to DC-6). The terrain surrounding the village is complex with areas of dense vegetation, Lake Iliamna, and some modest elevation changes in the vicinity. 2.2 Climate The nearest official weather station is an observation station at the local airport. The climate of Igiugig is typical of the Alaska Peninsula, with cool, rainy summers and moderately cold winters with precipitation occurring as rain or snow. Seasonal temperature extremes can range from -40 degrees Fahrenheit (°F) in mid-winter to as high as 82°F in the summer. Average January temperatures range from -5°F to 25°F. Average July temperatures are around 53°F. 2.3 Geology The area is characterized by sedimentary bedrock (sandstone, siltstone, conglomerate, shale, and coal), with mixed unconsolidated sedimentary deposits (alluvial, colluvial, glacial, and marine) in some areas. 2.4 Permitting At this time, no major environmental obstacles are foreseen, though state and federal agencies will need to be involved from the inception of the project. Igiugig Wind Resource Assessment Final Report, Rev 0 3-1 Section 3.0 -Preliminary Wind-Flow Modeling and Tower Installation 3.1 Wind Flow Modeling A numerical simulation was employed to look at wind flow trends around the town of Igiugig, Alaska. This simulation was necessary to identify candidate sites for the met-tower (and potentially the wind turbine to be deployed in the future) based on terrain and wind characteristics. The following extensive data was collected: USGS topographical maps, Digital Elevation Maps (DEMs), and satellite imagery. Additionally, surface roughness data was acquired based on satellite MODIS mission and analysis of aerial imageries and maps. Wind data was purchased for the automatic weather observation station (AWOS) station at Igiugig (IGG, see Figure 1). As a result, a local climatology was calculated, and this was then numerically transferred to the site of interest. Figure 1. AWOS Station in Igiugig. The acquired data was used in a WAsP ®calculation to evaluate the wind speed trends over the topography about Igiugig. The results are shown in Figure 2. Igiugig Wind Resource Assessment Final Report, Rev 0 3-2 Figure 2. Filled contours of wind speed at 30 m above ground level (agl) as derived from a preliminary numerical model overlaid onto topographical contour lines in the geographical area surrounding Igiugig. Topography, surface roughness and other factors affect the wind flow. This calculation employs data from the local AWOS station to deduce a first approximation wind flow distribution at Igiugig. Black circles represent FAA hazard distance from the runway (red circles 5,000 ft and black circles have 10,000 ft radii). Note that the wind speed values should be used as qualitative only, due to large uncertainties in the numerical calculations using wind data from about 30 feet above ground and with intermittent sampling frequency. 3.2 Potential Sites for Met-Tower Installation The accumulated results led to the identification of (7) seven candidate sites for tower installation. They can be seen as ‘x’ marks in Figure 2 and Figure 3. The seven locations were further analyzed to look at wind directional distribution. In most cases the predominant wind direction appears to be easterly and aligned with the runway at Igiugig. An example of this wind rose is provided for ‘Site 04’ in Figure 4. Igiugig Wind Resource Assessment Final Report, Rev 0 3-3 A geological map was also acquired to narrow down the number of potential installation sites based on soil conditions. However, the information in the USGS map was not adequate to discard any of the initially selected sites. An application was filed with the FAA to assess any potential hazard to air navigation for all tower sites. FAA responded clearing most of the sites with the exception of Site 06 closest to the airstrip. Note that the best locations for wind resource (Figure 2) appear to be along the Iliamna Lake shore, where native allotment land would likely prevent the installation of a village turbine however. Figure 3. Aerial view of Igiugig with potential site locations denoted by red marks. The black cross identifies the final install location. Igiugig Wind Resource Assessment Final Report, Rev 0 3-4 Figure 4. Wind speed, energy, and direction distribution at ‘Site 04’. 3.3 Site Survey and Data Acquisition Staff members from Knight Piésold traveled to Port Alsworth, Alaska carrying essential tools for decommissioning and re-installation of the local meteorological tower, erected there the year before. At the same time, new residual hardware, wiring, anchors, and instruments were acquired and shipped air- freight to Igiugig. The tower and instrumentation underwent a rigorous inventory check and functionality test. A GPS-guided survey of most of the locations was executed during the first day of the site visit in Igiugig. Some of the candidate sites were inaccessible due to the absence of roads or trails, or resulted in unstable soils. Site 04 and Site 01 were the remaining candidates, but proximity to Native Allotment land prevented the installation at Site 01. It was then decided to relocate Site 04 to within the near-by landfill. Igiugig Wind Resource Assessment Final Report, Rev 0 3-5 Figure 5. View of typical surface conditions around the town of Igiugig (and tower after erection in the foreground). The village has only used a part of the fenced area and the remainder was relatively clear, flat, and just large enough to lay the tower out. Approval from the village council and landfill operator to use the space was received prior to any of the erection process, which also required the relocation of some junk vehicles. Knight Piésold dug several test holes to verify soil conditions at the site. The soil was fairly uniform silty clay with very small rocks mixed in, but water table was relatively high. For safety reasons, we opted for the use of dead-man anchors. 3.4 Erection of the Met-Tower The final site was selected at: -155º54’34.04”, 59º18’29.21”, elevation 38 m (126 ft). A photo of the erected tower is shown in Figure 6. Official valid data collection started on Oct. 2, 2011 at 15:00 AST. Further details of the met-tower installation are provided in the Met-Tower Installation Report [4]. Igiugig Wind Resource Assessment Final Report, Rev 0 3-6 Figure 6. View of the tower fully erected. Igiugig Wind Resource Assessment Final Report, Rev 0 4-1 Section 4.0 -Refined Wind Resource Assessment 4.1 Refined Wind Resource Map Wind data was collected manually by local people in Igiugig. Once per month, the data was collected by Dave Hostetter and sent via email to Knight Piesold’s Denver office. The data then underwent a rigorous quality control review, and was correlated to the available airport data to be validated. The overall correlation coefficient was 0.87 which is a very good correlation. The final wind data report can be seen in Appendix A and the correlation report is shown in Appendix B. A refined WRA was conducted with the goal of assessing the wind regime at an altitude between 30 and 40 m AGL at various locations across the site. The model employed high resolution terrain elevation in the immediate proximity of the village. This data was kindly provided by Mr. Lamar Cotten (LPB Manager) and Mr. George Plumley (Planner, Dept. of Commerce, State of Alaska). Wind data from the combined anemometer readings at the installed meteorological tower described above was correlated to the long-term (last 10 years) data set from the local airport AWOS station. Wind speed and direction distributions as received from the met-tower can be seen in Figure 7 and Figure 8. Figure 9. Turbulence at location of the met-tower and 33 m AGL compared to with IEC standards. shows the turbulence intensity measured at the meteorological tower as a function of wind speed. The smooth curves represent the IEC standards for turbulence. The turbulence intensity at the tower location is relatively low and within acceptable values for a category B wind turbine. Turbulence at this particular site increases significantly at lower heights above ground. The anemometer located at 21 meters above ground measured higher turbulence levels. The correlation coefficient between met-tower and AWOS data proved to be 0.87 and this allowed the creation of a dependable long-term reference dataset (wind statistics) at high altitude (approximately at 33 m [110 feet] AGL). The wind climatology of the generic site Igiugig was then devised by running a computational fluid dynamic simulation over the terrain and surface characteristics, with the information from that wind statistics. Igiugig Wind Resource Assessment Final Report, Rev 0 4-2 Figure 7. Wind Distribution measured at the Igiugig Met-Tower. Igiugig Wind Resource Assessment Final Report, Rev 0 4-3 Figure 8. Wind Rose at the Igiugig Met-Tower. Igiugig Wind Resource Assessment Final Report, Rev 0 4-4 Figure 9. Turbulence at location of the met-tower and 33 m AGL compared to with IEC standards. A high-resolution (10 m horizontal) resource map (Figure 10) showing average annual wind speeds at a height of 37 m above ground was produced as output of the model. The wind resource map shows average annual wind speeds ranging from about 5.9 to 6.7 meters per second. The bright green, yellow and orange regions correspond to the highest wind speeds and give a wind power class of 3 to 4. In general, wind power class of 3 is considered marginally economic, while 4 and above is usually considered economic. Three potential sites were chosen as the best candidates for wind power and they are denoted by red crosses in Figure 10. Site 1 is the site of the met-tower. Site 2 is a site close to the village and south of the landing strip. Site 3 is a site further from the village along the shore of Lake Iliamna. Site 3 represents the best wind power potential, but also may increase the cost of a turbine installation due to its distance from an interconnection point to the village grid. Igiugig Wind Resource Assessment Final Report, Rev 0 4-5 Figure 10. Wind resource map: mean annual wind speeds at 37 m AGL for the Village of Igiugig. Horizontal resolution is 10 m. The potential turbine locations are denoted by red crosses. 4.2 Turbine and System Alternatives Given the results of the refined wind resource assessment, a turbine model was chosen to be modeled at the three different sites in the area of Igiugig. Typically, several different turbines are modeled in order to select the best and most economical alternative. In the case of Igiugig, only the Northern Power 100 Arctic, with a 100 kW capacity, was modeled. Based on previous conversations with the Alaska Energy Authority, it was determined that this is the most likely alternative. The Nothern Power 100 is an American made turbine with a good track record of installed machines in rural Alaska. It is also one of the only machines capable of operation in very cold temperatures commonly seen in Igiugig during the winter. Additionally, because Igiugig is a small village with a population of only 69 and a low energy demand of only 955 kWh per day, a turbine with capacity larger than 100 kW would represent an ultra-high penetration system that is likely not as economically or technically feasible. These larger machines would also be more difficult and expensive to install in a rural location like Igiugig. The power curve for the Northern Power 100 Arctic is shown in Figure 11 below. Igiugig Wind Resource Assessment Final Report, Rev 0 4-6 Figure 11. Power curve for the Northern Power 100 Arctic (100 kW) wind turbine. The Northern Power 100 Arctic is an IEC Class II machine rated for a turbulence category A. From Figure 9, it can be seen that turbine design category A is more than adequate for Igiugig. ASCE 7-05 [1] recommends a 50-year design wind speed of 49 meters per second (m/s) at 10 m AGL, which would translate into 56 m/s gusts at hub-heights (~40 m), making it an IEC class II site. The Northern Power turbine is a direct drive machine, which means it has no gearbox. An advantage of this type of machine is it generally requires less maintenance than a typical gearbox machine. The 100 Arctic also does not have pitch control. Pitch control assures optimal energy capture at various wind speeds, regulates the rotor at the highest wind speeds, and protects the machine by feathering the blades in potentially damaging strong wind events. However, active pitch control involves more moving parts and increases the likelihood of necessary maintenance. The NP 100 Arctic comes with a standard monopole tower, which lets the operator climb inside a weather-protected environment. The turbine generator would produce 3-phase, 60-hertz, 480-volt electricity. The 480-volt electrical output from the generator would be converted to 12.5 kilovolts (kV) by a step-up transformer and then connected to the village electrical grid by a 12.5 kV transmission line. The wind-power system for Igiugig should supply (to the extent possible) the thermal load that is currently supplied by diesel furnaces. This would allow the system to reduce even further the cost of unit energy, making it more attractive. Thus, the proposed wind-power system includes an electric water boiler, a supervisory control system, and a secondary load controller, which supply the thermal load during those times when wind generated power is in excess of demand. 4.3 Annual Energy Production Estimates Table 1 summarizes the average annual wind speed (Avg WS), annual energy production (AEP) and capacity factor (CF) for the NP 100 Arctic turbine including a 10 percent loss due to turbulence, blade soiling, and other miscellaneous items that may cause degraded performance. This table was generated for a machine hub height of 37 meters. Igiugig Wind Resource Assessment Final Report, Rev 0 4-7 Table 1. Average annual wind speed at 37m AGL, average annual energy production (AEP), and capacity factor for three potential wind turbine sites. Potential Site 1 Potential Site 2 Potential Site 3 Avg WS (m/s) AEP (MWh)CF Avg WS (m/s) AEP (MWh)CF Avg WS (m/s) AEP (MWh)CF 6.20 223 25.5% 6.28 228 26% 6.39 234 26.7% The NP 100 Arctic turbine would yield a capacity factor of approximately 25-27 percent, depending on its installed site. Because all three sites give relatively similar capacity factors and energy production it is likely that the site closest to available grid interconnection would be the most economical alternative. Transmission lines add to the cost of the turbine installation and should be kept to a minimum. The output of the model that calculates annual energy production is included in Appendix C. Igiugig Wind Resource Assessment Final Report, Rev 0 5-1 Section 5.0 -Economic Analysis 5.1 Inputs and Assumptions The economic analysis of a wind power installation at Igiugig was carried out under the assumptions as described below. The actual discount rate assumed is 2.9 percent, with a nominal interest rate and inflation rate of 5 and 2 percent respectively. The project lifetime is 20 years. It is assumed that an electric boiler would be paired with the existing waste heat recovery system. The electric boiler would be governed by a dedicated secondary load controller to ut ilize excess wind energy coming from the turbine when the electric load is low, thus offsetting the lost waste heat recovery from reduced generator use. The interconnection of the turbine will occur either at the powerhouse or at the closest interconnection of the existing village distribution line, whichever is closest to the final location of the turbine. A separate supervisory controller is needed for high levels of wind penetration. Igiugig’s small population and small electrical load means that the NP 100 Arctic turbine would give a high penetration level and thus would most likely require a supervisory controller. The newer, modern power house in Igiugig would ease the integration of a wind turbine into the system and potentially lower the installed cost. The seasonal electric load at Igiugig including the monthly maximum, average daily high, monthly mean, average daily low, and monthly minimum values, is given in Error! Reference source not found.. It is estimated that the average electricity consumption is 955 kWh/day with average load of 40 kW and peaks to 93. Figure 12. Seasonal electric load at Igiugig. The average daily thermal load data for Igiugig was estimated using previous data from Port Alsworth, a similar community in the region. The data was compared with available data on electrical generation at the Igiugig power house. The average thermal load is estimated to be 850 kWh per day. Statistics for the estimated monthly thermal power consumption in kW at Port Igiugig, including the monthly maximum, average daily high, daily mean, average daily low, and monthly minimum values are shown in the Figure 13. Igiugig Wind Resource Assessment Final Report, Rev 0 5-2 Figure 13. Seasonal thermal load served by the current diesel power house. The above information applies to the current situation in Igiugig (population 69) as of the date of this report. The town and village council has a strategic planning initiative aimed at growing the town’s population to 100 and expanding business and fac ilities. A population increase to 100 represents a 45 percent increase. In order to model the economics of a wind turbine project at the higher population expected in the future, an increase in electric and thermal demand of 40 percent is also modeled. The economic analysis was carried out for both the current case and the potential future case. 5.2 Estimated Capital and Replacement Costs An opinion of probable project costs was developed based on October 2012 U.S. dollars. The opinion of probable project costs includes construction, engineering, and contingency. Overall project cost was established by adding engineering, permitting, and legal fees. Engineering costs include preliminary and final design, procurement, construction management, and administration. Table 2 shows the estimated costs for the installation of the Northern Power 100 and includes the estimated cost of a transmission line. The data were obtained after consulting with the turbine vendors and the following construction and transportation contractors: GeoTek Alaska, Inc., STG, Inc., Sustainable Automation Inc., Northland Services Marine Transportation, and Bellavance Trucking. There are significant unknowns at this stage of design. These cost estimates should be considered accurate to within ±30 percent at the time of project implementation. Because of the remoteness of Igiugig, most of the capital costs come from having to transport personnel, materials, components, and special construction equipment to the site. The capital cost would increase or decrease depending on crude oil price fluctuations, as those affects transportation and manufacturing processes. However, there is very little information at this point to provide a solid justification to changes in the current estimates that are provided with a ±30 percent margin. Table 2. Estimated costs for installation of Northern Power 100 Arctic turbine (US$). NP 100 Arctic Turbine + Tower $384,000 Shipment $80,000 Transformer $34,000 Supervisory Controller $110,000 Secondary Controller $40,000 Boiler and misc. $30,000 Power line (US$300k/mile)$75,000 Geotechnical Investigation and Report $95,000 Engineering/Permitting/Construction/Erection $355,000 Total $1,203,000 With 15 percent Contingency $1,383,450 Installed Cost per kW $13,834 5.3 Estimated Operation and Maintenance Costs A fixed system operation and maintenance (O&M) cost of US$40,500 per year was used for both the combined wind power/diesel system and the current system. This is an average salary for a maintenance mechanic at the power house. US$2.32 per operational hour is the additional rate assumed for the O&M of diesel generators based on data provided at Port Alsworth and reduced by 20 percent to account for the new, modern power house installed at Igiugig. Igiugig Wind Resource Assessment Final Report, Rev 0 5-3 For the wind system, a US$10,000/year O&M cost per installed turbine is assumed; this includes salary amounting to 1 day/month for a local mechanic plus 2 days every 3 months for a specialized mechanic from Anchorage and airfares. The overall diesel generator O&M will be less in the combined system due to reduced diesel usage, however, the salary of the local mechanic will be higher for the additional maintenance tasks at the wind turbine. 5.4 Estimated Diesel Prices Three different values for delivered diesel prices were assumed: US$7.79 per gallon (US$2.06 per liter), US$10.41 per gallon (US$2.75 per liter) and US$11.31 per gallon (US$2.99 per liter). At the time of this report, the current cost of diesel in Igiugig was US$7.79 per gallon. The current price reflects oil prices of about US$95 per barrel. The higher estimates are in line with EIA’s projected long-term crude oil price of US$127 and US$138 per barrel. 5.5 Economic Analysis Results The software program HOMER© [5] was employed to simulate the economic performance of the various turbines. In Appendices D through G, complete output reports from the program are provided for the various system alternatives. The HOMER© analysis produces several economic measures that show the value of the difference between the wind/diesel alternative under consideration and the current diesel-only system, taking into account the 20-year life cycle costs of both systems. Definitions of the economic measures shown in the following sections are as follows: x The present worth is the difference between the net present cost of the alternative system and the diesel-only system, where the net present cost is the present value of all system costs incurred over the project lifetime (including capital costs, replacement costs, O&M costs, and fuel costs) minus salvage value. Present worth shows how much the alternative system saves over the project lifetime compared to the diesel-only system, and is the primary measure for comparing the economic feasibility of the two systems. The present worth represents the avoided cost over the life of the project when operating the alternative system rather than the current system. x The discounted payback period is how long it would take to recover the initial investment in the alternative system using the assumed rates for interest (5 percent) and inflation (2 percent). x The annual worth is the present worth multiplied by the capital recovery factor, which is a ratio used to calculate the present value of a series of equal annual cash flows. x The Internal Rate of Return is the discount rate that makes the present value of the difference of the two cash flow sequences equal to zero. x The levelized cost of energy (COE) is the average cost per kWh of useful electrical energy produced by the system. This is calculated by dividing the annualized cost of producing electricity (the total annualized cost minus the cost of serving the thermal load) by the total annual electric energy production. x The benefit/cost ratios for each alternative compared to the diesel-only system were calculated by adding the net present cost to the present worth and then dividing by the net present cost. Table 3 through Table 5 show the economic metrics for the wind turbine installation in the current situation (population 69) at each of the three sites for the varying diesel prices. Table 6 through Table 8 show the same metrics for the turbine installation at each of the three sites, but for the future situation where population has increased to 100. The benefit/cost ratio has been color-coded for ease of Igiugig Wind Resource Assessment Final Report, Rev 0 5-4 interpretation. Red values are not economically attractive, blue values are marginally economically attractive, and green values are economically attractive. Table 3. Economic analysis results for a wind turbine installation with current population of 69 and diesel cost at US$7.79 per gallon. Metric Potential Site 1 Potential Site 2 Potential Site 3 Capital (USD) 1,384,000 1,384,000 1,384,000 *Present Worth (USD) -180,979 -156,436 -122,952 **Annual Worth (USD) -12,052 -10,418 -8,188 Internal Rate of Return (ROI) (%) 1.45 (5.80) 1.65 (5.92) 1.92 (6.08) Discounted (simple) Payback Period (years) n/a (17.5) n/a (17.2) n/a (16.4) Levelized Cost of Energy (USD/kWh) 0.706 0.702 0.695 Diesel Only Cost of Energy (USD/kWh) 0.672 0.672 0.672 Benefit/Cost Ratio 0.96 0.97 0.97 * Represents the avoided cost over the life of the project when operating the alternative system rather than the diesel system. ** Represents the avoided cost on an annual basis when operating the alternative system rather than the diesel only system. Table 4. Economic analysis results for a wind turbine installation with current population of 69 and diesel cost at US$10.41 per gallon. Metric Potential Site 1 Potential Site 2 Potential Site 3 Capital (USD) 1,384,000 1,384,000 1,384,000 *Present Worth (USD) 253,005 285,577 329,818 **Annual Worth (USD) 16,849 19,018 21,964 Internal Rate of Return (ROI) (%) 4.77 (7.89) 5.00 (8.04) 5.31 (8.26) Discounted (simple) Payback Period (years) 16 (12.8) 15.6 (12.6) 15.1 (12.3) Levelized Cost of Energy (USD/kWh) 0.804 0.798 0.789 Diesel Only Cost of Energy (USD/kWh) 0.852 0.852 0.852 Benefit/Cost Ratio 1.04 1.05 1.06 * Represents the avoided cost over the life of the project when operating the alternative system rather than the diesel system. ** Represents the avoided cost on an annual basis when operating the alternative system rather than the diesel only system Table 5. Economic analysis results for a wind turbine installation with current population of 69 and diesel cost at US$11.31 per gallon. Metric Potential Site 1 Potential Site 2 Potential Site 3 Capital (USD) 1,384,000 1,384,000 1,384,000 *Present Worth (USD) 403,956 439,319 487,303 **Annual Worth (USD) 26,902 29,257 32,452 Internal Rate of Return (ROI) (%) 5.82 (8.61) 6.06 (8.78) 6.39 (9.02) Discounted (simple) Payback Period (years) 14.3 (11.7) 14 (11.5) 13.9 (11.2) Levelized Cost of Energy (USD/kWh) 0.838 0.831 0.822 Diesel Only Cost of Energy (USD/kWh) 0.915 0.915 0.915 Benefit/Cost Ratio 1.07 1.07 1.08 * Represents the avoided cost over the life of the project when operating the alternative system rather than the diesel system. ** Represents the avoided cost on an annual basis when operating the alternative system rather than the diesel only system Igiugig Wind Resource Assessment Final Report, Rev 0 5-5 Table 6. Economic analysis results for a wind turbine installation with future population of 100 and diesel cost at US$7.79 per gallon. Metric Potential Site 1 Potential Site 2 Potential Site 3 Capital (USD) 1,384,000 1,384,000 1,384,000 *Present Worth (USD) 72,349 103,704 142,492 **Annual Worth (USD) 4,818 6,906 9,489 Internal Rate of Return (ROI) (%) 3.45 (7.01) 3.69 (7.16) 3.98 (7.35) Discounted (simple) Payback Period (years) 18.7 (14.0) 18.2 (13.9) 17.6 (13.8) Levelized Cost of Energy (USD/kWh) 0.641 0.637 0.632 Diesel Only Cost of Energy (USD/kWh) 0.651 0.651 0.651 Benefit/Cost Ratio 1.01 1.02 1.02 * Represents the avoided cost over the life of the project when operating the alternative system rather than the diesel system. ** Represents the avoided cost on an annual basis when operating the alternative system rather than the diesel only system Table 7. Economic analysis results for a wind turbine installation with future population of 100 and diesel cost at US$10.41 per gallon. Metric Potential Site 1 Potential Site 2 Potential Site 3 Capital (USD) 1,384,000 1,384,000 1,384,000 *Present Worth (USD) 572,039 613,212 664,302 **Annual Worth (USD) 38,095 40,837 44,240 Internal Rate of Return (ROI) (%) 6.95 (9.41) 7.22 7.55 (9.86) Discounted (simple) Payback Period (years) 12.8 (10.8) 12.5 (10.5) 12.1 (10.3) Levelized Cost of Energy (USD/kWh) 0.753 0.748 0.741 Diesel Only Cost of Energy (USD/kWh) 0.831 0.831 0.831 Benefit/Cost Ratio 1.08 1.08 1.09 * Represents the avoided cost over the life of the project when operating the alternative system rather than the diesel system. ** Represents the avoided cost on an annual basis when operating the alternative system rather than the diesel only system Table 8. Economic analysis results for a wind turbine installation with future population of 100 and diesel cost at US$11.31 per gallon. Metric Potential Site 1 Potential Site 2 Potential Site 3 Capital (USD) 1,384,000 1,384,000 1,384,000 *Present Worth (USD) 745,846 790,433 845,802 **Annual Worth (USD) 49,670 52,640 56,327 Internal Rate of Return (ROI) (%) 8.07 (10.3) 8.35 (10.5) 8.7 (10.7) Discounted (simple) Payback Period (years) 11.8 (9.9) 11.7 (9.7) 11.5 (9.4) Levelized Cost of Energy (USD/kWh) 0.792 0.786 0.778 Diesel Only Cost of Energy (USD/kWh) 0.894 0.894 0.894 Benefit/Cost Ratio 1.09 1.10 1.11 * Represents the avoided cost over the life of the project when operating the alternative system rather than the diesel system. ** Represents the avoided cost on an annual basis when operating the alternative system rather than the diesel only system It is clear from the results of the analysis that the installation of a NP 100 turbine is not economically beneficial in the current situation with a population of 69 but as the cost of diesel increases the project becomes more attractive. As the population increases, and thus the electric demand increases, the project becomes more economically attractive as well. Igiugig Wind Resource Assessment Final Report, Rev 0 5-6 5.6 State Funding Impact Lake and Peninsula Borough requested additional analyses based on the assumption that the project would be 80 percent funded by a grant from the state of Alaska. This analysis assesses the expense and return on investment incurred by the Borough and the town of Igiugig alone. The following tables summarize the results in the same fashion as Table 3 through Table 8. Under the state funding assumption the project is always economically viable. For this reason, the analysis was limited to potential turbine site 3 as it is the most economically attractive site. Table 9 through Table 12 show the results of the analysis with the current population and electric demand while Table 12 through Table 14 show the results for future population of 100 and higher electric demand. Table 9. Economic analysis results for a wind turbine installation with current population of 69 and diesel cost at US$7.79 per gallon, assuming the project is 80 percent funded by the state. Metric Potential Site 3 Capital (USD) 276,800 *Present Worth (USD) 984,248 **Annual Worth (USD) 65,547 Internal Rate of Return (ROI) (%) 30.0 (30.4) Discounted (simple) Payback Period (years) 3.6 (3.4) Levelized Cost of Energy (USD/kWh) 0.484 Diesel Only Cost of Energy (USD/kWh) 0.672 Benefit/Cost Ratio 1.27 Table 10. Economic analysis results for a wind turbine installation with current population of 69 and diesel cost at US$10.41 per gallon, assuming the project is 80 percent funded by the state. Metric Potential Site 3 Capital (USD) 276,800 *Present Worth (USD) 1,437,018 **Annual Worth (USD) 95,699 Internal Rate of Return (ROI) (%) 40.9 (41.3) Discounted (simple) Payback Period (years) 2.59 (2.45) Levelized Cost of Energy (USD/kWh) 0.578 Diesel Only Cost of Energy (USD/kWh) 0.852 Benefit/Cost Ratio 1.32 Table 11. Economic analysis results for a wind turbine installation with current population of 69 and diesel cost at US$11.31 per gallon, assuming the project is 80 percent funded by the state. Metric Potential Site 3 Capital (USD) 276,800 *Present Worth (USD) 1,594,503 **Annual Worth (USD) 106,187 Internal Rate of Return (ROI) (%) 44.7 (45.1) Discounted (simple) Payback Period (years) 2.36 Levelized Cost of Energy (USD/kWh) 0.611 Diesel Only Cost of Energy (USD/kWh) 0.915 Benefit/Cost Ratio 1.33 Igiugig Wind Resource Assessment Final Report, Rev 0 5-7 Table 12. Economic analysis results for a wind turbine installation with future population of 100 and diesel cost at US$7.79 per gallon, assuming the project is 80 percent funded by the state. Metric Potential Site 3 Capital (USD) 276,800 *Present Worth (USD) 1,249,692 **Annual Worth (USD) 83,224 Internal Rate of Return (ROI) (%) 36.3 (36.7) Discounted (simple) Payback Period (years) 2.93 (2.77) Levelized Cost of Energy (USD/kWh) 0.481 Diesel Only Cost of Energy (USD/kWh) 0.651 Benefit/Cost Ratio 1.25 Table 13. Economic analysis results for a wind turbine installation with future population of 100 and diesel cost at US$10.41 per gallon, assuming the project is 80 percent funded by the state. Metric Potential Site 3 Capital (USD) 276,800 *Present Worth (USD) 1,771,502 **Annual Worth (USD) 117,975 Internal Rate of Return (ROI) (%) 48.8 (49.3) Discounted (simple) Payback Period (years) 2.15 (2.06) Levelized Cost of Energy (USD/kWh) 0.589 Diesel Only Cost of Energy (USD/kWh) 0.831 Benefit/Cost Ratio 1.28 Table 14. Economic analysis results for a wind turbine installation with future population of 100 and diesel cost at US$11.31 per gallon, assuming the project is 80 percent funded by the state. Metric Potential Site 3 Capital (USD) 276,800 *Present Worth (USD) 1,953,002 **Annual Worth (USD) 130,062 Internal Rate of Return (ROI) (%) 53.1 (53.7) Discounted (simple) Payback Period (years) 1.97 (1.89) Levelized Cost of Energy (USD/kWh) 0.627 Diesel Only Cost of Energy (USD/kWh) 0.894 Benefit/Cost Ratio 1.29 Igiugig Wind Resource Assessment Final Report, Rev 0 6-1 Section 6.0 -Environmental and Construction Permitting In this Section, the necessary steps for the Permitting of the project are described. They include Environmental and Building Permitting. There are a number of agencies that will have jurisdiction on the project. While the project is most likely to be on private land belonging to the native corporation at Igiugig, if federal or state actions such as funding or issuance of permits or licenses are involved, then the appropriate federal and state agencies will need to be consulted to start the regulatory permitting process. 6.1 FAA Permitting The FAA will have to issue a “determination of no hazard” for the erection of a wind turbine. This determination process can be straight forward depending on the final site chosen for the wind turbine. Sites close to, or in the path of, the airstrip will require a more involved process than sites more than 10,000 feet from the airstrip. 6.2 Construction Permitting A Construction General Permit (CGP) will be needed from the Alaska Department of Environmental Conservation (ADEC) for the construction of the project. In order to get this permit, a Storm Water Pollution Prevention Plan (SWPP) will need to be completed which will include measures to mitigate detrimental effects to the environment during construction. This includes digging and pouring of foundations, tower erection, transformer construction, power line burial and potential power line poles along the road from the site to the interconnection point. Note that the impacted area may or may not be larger than 1 acre (threshold value for this permitting requirement) due to uncertainty in the transmission line distance, depending on the final site of the turbine. A Notice of Intent (NOI) must be submitted to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) within this phase. Additionally, consultations with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) and the State Historic Preservation Office will be required, together with the agencies’ determinations of “no significant effect to species or historical environment” as per Sections 6.3 and 6.4. Other building permits and electrical reviews may be needed by the entity in charge of the ut ility at the village. Generally speaking, the executive mechanical, civil, and electrical drawings will need to be stamped by one or more licensed professional engineers in the State of Alaska. Note that the assistance of LPB will be required in the determination of these further requirements. Estimated time for permit is 90 days from filing. 6.3 U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Alaska Department of Fish and Game: Birds, Bats, Endangered Species Protection, Fish Habitat The USFWS will need to be contacted in the development of the project. First, a review will be conducted of the draft guidelines that the Alaska Regional Office of USFWS has issued. Knight Piésold will then contact local Fish and Game offices (ADF&G), and village individuals to verify that there are no bird migratory paths affected by the installation of the wind turbine and associated power lines, roosting or nesting habitat of endangered plant or animal species. Site soil preparation may involve some coordination in order to comply with USFWS guidelines. The local National Park staff will be instrumental in obtaining further information on the local fauna. The USFWS may require pre- and post-construction observation periods based on these observations and Knight Piésold will contact ADF&G on this regard. With only one wind turbine installation expected, Igiugig Wind Resource Assessment Final Report, Rev 0 6-2 the impact to any bird or mammal species should be insignificant, but the USFWS will need to be made aware of the project to address issues associated with potential wildlife fatalities during operation. 6.4 State Historic Preservation Office and Office of History and Archeology A letter from State Historic Preservation Office (SHPO) stating that “no historic properties will be adversely affected by the project” will be required. An archeological survey may be required for access and construction footprint. Procedures will be coordinated with a state archeologist. Estimated time for concurrence is 30 days from filing. 6.5 Land Uses and Rights-of-Way No federal land is expected to be affected by the project, therefor, only a written notice to proceed by the native corporation of Igiugig is required to allow project implementation. If other private land is involved, further written authorizations will be required. Note that the assistance of LPB would be required in the determination of Land Status for the areas of interest to the project. 6.6 Wetlands and Other Waters Further permit with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is foreseen, since the project may involve minor construction activities in jurisdictional wetlands (transmission line poles). However, a jurisdictional wetland survey will need to be conducted to determine the existence of any such wetlands within the project area that might be impacted by the project. 6.7 National Environmental Policy Act Review Although it is not likely that a full-blown environmental impact statement (EIS) will be required under the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), the preparation of an environmental assessment (EA) would most likely be required for federal and state agencies permitting requirements. The EA is an abbreviated NEPA process document that is intended to assess the potential environmental impacts of the project, provide for mitigation as required, and to confirm minimal impact to the environment. The EA would be used by the regulatory agency(s) to issue a Finding of No Significant Impact (FONSI) to the environment, thereby circumventing the need for an EIS. Note that LPB would be required to assist in this determination. 6.8 Tentative Cost Estimates Associated with Environmental and Construction Permitting It is not trivial to assess the costs at this stage of the project, especially since there are many unknowns in terms of effective permits required. Per client’s request, however, Knight Piésold is offering a best estimate of the costs based on the current knowledge of the factors involved in this project. This estimate (in US$) may change vastly in either direction when the project implementation gets underway. FAA air-traffic permitting: $1,000 Construction Permitting: $15,000 USFWS-ADF&G Consultation: $6,000 SHPO-OHA Consultation: $10,000 Land Uses Rights-of-Way: $3,000 Wetlands Surveying: $10,000 Estimated total cost: US$45,000 *Note that this estimate does not include preparation of an EA as part of the NEPA review process. Igiugig Wind Resource Assessment Final Report, Rev 0 7-1 Section 7.0 -Conclusions and Recommendations 7.1 Wind Feasibility Study Conclusions The following conclusions of the present study can be drawn: x The wind at Igiugig varies across the area from class 3 to class 4 [6]. x One site along the lake shore was selected as the most attractive site for a wind turbine in terms of both energy production and economics. x A high-penetration level is the only economically viable option for wind power at Igiugig, which implies a relatively sophisticated primary and secondary load control system to be implemented. x Initial investments for a wind turbine installation at Igiugig would be approximately 1.38 Million dollars. These cost estimates should be considered accurate to within plus or minus 30 percent. x The per-installed-kW cost is approximately US$13,840 dollars. x At higher diesel prices or increased electrical demand the turbine installation emerges as economically attractive. x All the configurations become economically viable, however, if the project is awarded 80 percent of the capital cost as an externally provided grant. x Under the 80 percent outside funding scenario, a significant reduction in cost of energy could be achieved in the current situation with population of 69. 7.2 Other Relevant Remarks x The Northern Power 100 Arctic is the most suitable turbine model for Igiugig. It is a 100 kW machine appropriately sized for Igiugig. It’s an American made machine with a good track record and installed base in AK. It is capable of operating at low temperatures found in Igiugig. The NP 100 also also represents an advantage in being American made because spare parts will be more readily available. x Costs for a wind power project will be high due to the physical setting. Material transport and construction costs will be high, since the closest contractors c apable of performing the work are located in Anchorage. x Construction materials and equipment for all alternatives will need to be shipped to Igiugig via air or potentially barged up the Kvichak river.. x The small size of the job will not favor a reduction of construction costs under bidding, because only a limited number of contractors are likely to submit bids. x If multiple wind turbines are to be installed in the region, for example at Port Heiden as well as Igiugig, further exploration into cost savings may be beneficial. Combining shipment, mobilization, and construction of multiple projects in the area could result in significant cost savings for any individual project. x While permitting is not seen as a major obstacles, the number of local, state, and federal agencies that need to be involved is large, and if the project is selected, permitting procedures will need to be established early on. x Acceptance by the local population is key. From initial exploration, the community is enthusiastic about and committed to developing renewable energy. x The recently remodeled, modern powerhouse at Igiugig will simplify the integration of a wind turbine into the system and may lower the installed cost significantly. Igiugig Wind Resource Assessment Final Report, Rev 0 7-2 7.3 Recommendations for Future Activities If LPB decided to continue with the implementation of the wind power project at this site, recommendations include: x Investigate whether suitable financing is available to develop a wind power project at Igiugig with the economics as illustrated in this report. In case of positive outcome of the previous point: x Initiate contacts with Northern Power and other vendors. x Identify a project manager and a firm to oversee the engineering. x Initiate geotechnical investigations to assess the requirements for a sound foundation. x Identify other potential construction projects at Igiugig and surrounding towns for sharing of costs associated with construction activities, transportation, and logistics. x Initiate permitting procedures. Igiugig Wind Resource Assessment Final Report, Rev 0 8-1 Section 8.0 -References [1] ASCE Standard ASCE/SEI 7-05, Minimum Design Loads for Buildings and Other Structures, ASCE 2005. [2] Detterman, R.L., T.P. Miller, M.E. Yount, and F.H. Wilson, 1981, Geologic Map of the Chignik and Sutwik Island Quadrangles, Alaska,Miscellaneous Investigations Series Map I-1229, U.S. Geological Survey, Fairbanks Alaska. [3] Information Insights, 2008: The Lake and Peninsula Borough Regional Energy Plan, Fairbanks, Alaska. [4] Knight Piésold report, Lake and Peninsula Borough Igiugig Wind Resource Assessment Met-Tower Installation Report, dated October 13, 2011. [5] U.S. Department of Energy, 2005, HOMER Version 2.1,Micropower Optimization Software Model, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, Colorado. [6] Classes of Wind Power Density. National Renewable Energy Laboratory. <http://rredc.nrel.gov/wind/pubs/atlas/tables/1-1T.html> Appendix A Final Met Data Report for Igiugig Met Tower WindPRO version 2.7.486 Jan 2011 WindPRO is developed by EMD International A/S, Niels Jernesvej 10, DK-9220 Aalborg Ø, Tlf. +45 96 35 44 44, Fax +45 96 35 44 46, e-mail: windpro@emd.dk Project: IGIUGIG Printed/Page 11/2/2012 12:33 PM / 1 Licensed user: Knight Piesold Ltd 1999 Broadway, Suite 600 US-DENVER, CO 80202 +1 303 629 8788 Calculated: 11/2/2012 12:32 PM Meteo data report - Main results Mast:MERGED DATA; A1A2; Igiugig merged A1 A2 data report Period:Full period: 10/2/2011 - 10/1/2012 (12.0 months) Mast position: UTM WGS 84 Zone: 5 East: 334,375 North: 6,577,979 Measurement heights and wind speeds (in this report) Disabled data not included in overview table below ID Height Data recovery Records U_max U_mean *) [m] [%] [m/s] [m/s] 33.0m - A1A2 33.0 100.0 52570 27.6 5.8 21.0m - B1 21.0 100.0 52570 24.3 5.2 *) U_mean is simple arithmetic average Scale: 50,000 Profile characteristics for best curve fit through all data (Note: Values are only fully valid in flat terrain) Shear exponent 0.2370 (Power law profile) Roughness lenght 0.3859 m class 2.97 (Equivalent roughness for logarithmic profile) 3DJH$ WindPRO version 2.7.486 Jan 2011 WindPRO is developed by EMD International A/S, Niels Jernesvej 10, DK-9220 Aalborg Ø, Tlf. +45 96 35 44 44, Fax +45 96 35 44 46, e-mail: windpro@emd.dk Project: IGIUGIG Printed/Page 11/2/2012 12:33 PM / 2 Licensed user: Knight Piesold Ltd 1999 Broadway, Suite 600 US-DENVER, CO 80202 +1 303 629 8788 Calculated: 11/2/2012 12:32 PM Meteo data report - Main results Mast:MERGED DATA; A1A2; Igiugig merged A1 A2 data report Period:Full period: 10/2/2011 - 10/1/2012 (12.0 months) Statistics Signal Unit Count Of Mean Weibull Weibull Weibull period mean A k [%] 33.0m - A1A2 WS, all m/s 52570 100.0 5.83 5.86 6.57 1.72 33.0m - A1A2 WD, all Degrees 52570 100.0 156.81 33.0m - A1A2 TU, all 35270 67.1 0.10 33.0m - A1A2 T, all Deg C 52202 99.3 -0.52 21.0m - B1 WS, all m/s 52570 100.0 5.25 5.26 5.90 1.69 21.0m - B1 TU, all 31879 60.6 0.13 21.0m - B1 WD, all Degrees 52570 100.0 156.81 3DJH$ WindPRO version 2.7.486 Jan 2011 WindPRO is developed by EMD International A/S, Niels Jernesvej 10, DK-9220 Aalborg Ø, Tlf. +45 96 35 44 44, Fax +45 96 35 44 46, e-mail: windpro@emd.dk Project: IGIUGIG Printed/Page 11/2/2012 12:33 PM / 3 Licensed user: Knight Piesold Ltd 1999 Broadway, Suite 600 US-DENVER, CO 80202 +1 303 629 8788 Calculated: 11/2/2012 12:32 PM Meteo data report - Import filters, files and heights Mast:MERGED DATA; A1A2; Igiugig merged A1 A2 data report Period:Full period: 10/2/2011 - 10/1/2012 (12.0 months) Import filter: I1 Files/Folders C:\WindPro\WINDPRO_Data\PROJECTS\LPB\IGIUGIG\METDATA\IGI_TOWER\MergedData\IGI_MERGED.txt Time zone for measurements: Same as in the project properties: (GMT-09:00) Alaska Line with header: 1 Header field separator: "Tab" First line with data: 2 Data field separator: "Tab" Column Channel Type Sub type Unit Height Name 1 Time stamp Date&Time mm/dd/yyyy hh:mm 2 Wind speed Mean m/s 33.0 m A1A2 3 Wind speed Mean m/s 21.0 m B1 4 Wind direction Mean Degrees 32.0 m WD 5 Temperature Mean Deg C 2.0 m T 6 Turbulence intensity Mean 33.0 m TU_A1A2 7 Turbulence intensity Mean 21.0 m TU_B1 3DJH$ WindPRO version 2.7.486 Jan 2011 WindPRO is developed by EMD International A/S, Niels Jernesvej 10, DK-9220 Aalborg Ø, Tlf. +45 96 35 44 44, Fax +45 96 35 44 46, e-mail: windpro@emd.dk Project: IGIUGIG Printed/Page 11/2/2012 12:33 PM / 4 Licensed user: Knight Piesold Ltd 1999 Broadway, Suite 600 US-DENVER, CO 80202 +1 303 629 8788 Calculated: 11/2/2012 12:32 PM Meteo data report - Missing data - calendar view Mast:MERGED DATA; A1A2; Igiugig merged A1 A2 data report Period:Full period: 10/2/2011 - 10/1/2012 (12.0 months) Height:33.0m - A1A2 - some records missing, disabled, erroneous, or out of range current day Signal:WS - all records missing, disabled, erroneous, or out of range current day Day Month/Year%Total12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031 Oct/2011 0.0 0 000000000000000000000000000000 Nov/2011 0.0 0 000000000000000000000000000000 Dec/2011 0.0 0 0000000000000000000000000000000 Jan/2012 0.0 0 0000000000000000000000000000000 Feb/2012 0.0 0 00000000000000000000000000000 Mar/2012 0.0 0 0000000000000000000000000000000 Apr/2012 0.0 0 000000000000000000000000000000 May/2012 0.0 0 0000000000000000000000000000000 Jun/2012 0.0 0 000000000000000000000000000000 Jul/2012 0.0 0 0000000000000000000000000000000 Aug/2012 0.0 0 0000000000000000000000000000000 Sep/2012 0.0 0 000000000000000000000000000000 Oct/2012 0.0 0 0 Total 0.0 0 Signal:WD Day Month/Year%Total12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031 Oct/2011 0.0 0 000000000000000000000000000000 Nov/2011 0.0 0 000000000000000000000000000000 Dec/2011 0.0 0 0000000000000000000000000000000 Jan/2012 0.0 0 0000000000000000000000000000000 Feb/2012 0.0 0 00000000000000000000000000000 Mar/2012 0.0 0 0000000000000000000000000000000 Apr/2012 0.0 0 000000000000000000000000000000 May/2012 0.0 0 0000000000000000000000000000000 Jun/2012 0.0 0 000000000000000000000000000000 Jul/2012 0.0 0 0000000000000000000000000000000 Aug/2012 0.0 0 0000000000000000000000000000000 Sep/2012 0.0 0 000000000000000000000000000000 Oct/2012 0.0 0 0 Total 0.0 0 Signal:TU Day Month/Year % Total 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 Oct/2011 42.0 1793 58 86 122 40 72 88 133 106 105 3 13 1 57 56 136 141 62 77 0 0 60 16 2 0 18 47 79 29 98 88 Nov/2011 26.9 1164 40 68 4 39 55 3 31 58 14 14 18 0 3 64 27 4 72 51 41 9 19 0 70 123 94 78 51 99 4 11 Dec/2011 25.3 1131 16 37 0 7 0 14 8 44 2 7 0 62 110 0 1 12 4 1 5 0 33 117 100 69 124 14 73 82 49 8 132 Jan/2012 39.7 1771 11 89 77 24 3 93 37 37 10 20 73 50 71 71 107 82 35 0 62 42 5 83 68 84 6 46 124 144 71 73 73 Feb/2012 16.9 705 1 11 29 0 0 0 2 8 0 25 0 12 12 24 26 1 94 24 14 35 0 0 36 99 19 80 20 51 82 Mar/2012 25.7 1148 11 46 13 59 12 4 13 75 40 1 12 67 84 84 0 37 10 40 36 27 4 70 11 138 95 5 0 13 5 31 105 Apr/2012 26.6 1151 34 54 50 16 36 119 78 15 49 0 78 3 72 2 2 2 19 8 100 16 49 57 0 47 45 105 13 9 73 0 May/2012 32.6 1456 19 88 87 90 47 80 110 10 37 14 31 115 88 32 103 31 0 0 0 22 93 68 84 12 13 76 9 25 0 14 58 Jun/2012 32.2 1392 80 8 33 70 83 75 93 22 127 127 0 3 39 47 28 70 0 0 0 1 66 83 62 12 38 32 48 4 52 89 Jul/2012 52.1 2324 58 22 55 41 11 71 115 67 136 69 0 49 134 66 42 11 106 86 8 73 122 117 136 127 94 125 1 44 140 68 130 Aug/2012 40.1 1792 73 0 33 115 60 37 114 120 111 67 26 31 4 1 53 120 137 128 13 36 42 126 48 3 29 22 12 106 91 24 10 Sep/2012 33.7 1454 28 27 0 2 0 4 102 61 43 130 25 78 31 61 42 1 7 74 61 128 47 56 71 60 16 1 24 42 109 123 Oct/2012 28.8 19 19 Total 32.9 17300 Signal:T Day Month/Year%Total12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031 Oct/2011 0.0 0 000000000000000000000000000000 Nov/2011 0.0 0 000000000000000000000000000000 Dec/2011 0.0 0 0000000000000000000000000000000 Jan/2012 7.7 343 00000000000000000000000006 122 144 71 0 0 Feb/2012 0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Mar/2012 0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Apr/2012 0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 May/2012 0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 To be continued on next page... 3DJH$ WindPRO version 2.7.486 Jan 2011 WindPRO is developed by EMD International A/S, Niels Jernesvej 10, DK-9220 Aalborg Ø, Tlf. +45 96 35 44 44, Fax +45 96 35 44 46, e-mail: windpro@emd.dk Project: IGIUGIG Printed/Page 11/2/2012 12:33 PM / 5 Licensed user: Knight Piesold Ltd 1999 Broadway, Suite 600 US-DENVER, CO 80202 +1 303 629 8788 Calculated: 11/2/2012 12:32 PM Meteo data report - Missing data - calendar view Mast:MERGED DATA; A1A2; Igiugig merged A1 A2 data report Period:Full period: 10/2/2011 - 10/1/2012 (12.0 months) ...continued from previous page Day Month/Year%Total12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031 Jun/2012 0.0 0 000000000000000000000000000000 Jul/2012 0.6 25 0000000012 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Aug/2012 0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sep/2012 0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Oct/2012 0.0 0 0 Total 0.7 368 Height:21.0m - B1 - some records missing, disabled, erroneous, or out of range current day Signal:WS - all records missing, disabled, erroneous, or out of range current day Day Month/Year%Total12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031 Oct/2011 0.0 0 000000000000000000000000000000 Nov/2011 0.0 0 000000000000000000000000000000 Dec/2011 0.0 0 0000000000000000000000000000000 Jan/2012 0.0 0 0000000000000000000000000000000 Feb/2012 0.0 0 00000000000000000000000000000 Mar/2012 0.0 0 0000000000000000000000000000000 Apr/2012 0.0 0 000000000000000000000000000000 May/2012 0.0 0 0000000000000000000000000000000 Jun/2012 0.0 0 000000000000000000000000000000 Jul/2012 0.0 0 0000000000000000000000000000000 Aug/2012 0.0 0 0000000000000000000000000000000 Sep/2012 0.0 0 000000000000000000000000000000 Oct/2012 0.0 0 0 Total 0.0 0 Signal:TU Day Month/Year % Total 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 Oct/2011 49.3 2102 68 90 139 58 92 108 144 115 124 9 25 2 61 72 142 141 110 80 0 3 73 33 8 0 37 54 80 38 103 93 Nov/2011 34.2 1477 55 78 4 67 59 5 55 74 34 23 32 0 14 71 33 8 79 58 54 14 29 0 105 140 100 90 53 100 10 33 Dec/2011 33.2 1480 31 53 1 8 3 36 13 62 13 12 6 71 110 0 6 18 18 2 22 4 47 122 118 83 129 19 101 117 70 41 144 Jan/2012 50.2 2239 25 93 88 34 7 104 41 65 17 23 88 89 85 79 114 112 76 14 85 69 18 110 75 96 40 72 132 144 71 96 77 Feb/2012 20.7 863 1 27 37 0 0 1 2 11 0 41 0 13 13 27 28 8 102 25 24 42 0 0 36 103 27 92 26 73 104 Mar/2012 32.3 1444 14 47 33 63 29 22 24 94 48 4 13 94 101 96 1 67 30 53 42 34 8 76 24 142 104 15 0 15 10 36 105 Apr/2012 32.5 1402 38 70 60 33 40 123 91 23 53 0 93 5 69 4 3 5 33 15 110 40 49 69 1 59 56 118 20 34 87 1 May/2012 38.1 1701 24 95 101 93 46 102 117 10 37 31 32 117 100 40 108 41 6 0 0 36 118 91 91 15 21 76 12 27 1 47 66 Jun/2012 36.9 1592 104 12 34 80 98 91 93 27 126 128 0 7 47 58 38 87 3 0 0 2 75 83 78 13 55 40 49 11 57 96 Jul/2012 57.4 2564 67 43 63 60 20 95 125 85 136 71 0 50 141 67 43 24 115 94 15 75 129 126 141 135 107 130 5 52 144 73 133 Aug/2012 46.4 2072 89 0 42 116 83 56 115 138 120 70 40 34 13 2 59 131 139 138 21 51 53 136 65 9 33 26 29 119 103 26 16 Sep/2012 39.9 1724 34 29 0 5 0 19 110 66 75 131 36 100 71 82 52 3 9 93 67 129 49 62 82 62 18 0 39 44 127 130 Oct/2012 47.0 31 31 Total 39.4 20691 Signal:WD Day Month/Year%Total12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031 Oct/2011 0.0 0 000000000000000000000000000000 Nov/2011 0.0 0 000000000000000000000000000000 Dec/2011 0.0 0 0000000000000000000000000000000 Jan/2012 0.0 0 0000000000000000000000000000000 Feb/2012 0.0 0 00000000000000000000000000000 Mar/2012 0.0 0 0000000000000000000000000000000 Apr/2012 0.0 0 000000000000000000000000000000 May/2012 0.0 0 0000000000000000000000000000000 Jun/2012 0.0 0 000000000000000000000000000000 Jul/2012 0.0 0 0000000000000000000000000000000 Aug/2012 0.0 0 0000000000000000000000000000000 Sep/2012 0.0 0 000000000000000000000000000000 Oct/2012 0.0 0 0 Total 0.0 0 3DJH$ WindPRO version 2.7.486 Jan 2011 WindPRO is developed by EMD International A/S, Niels Jernesvej 10, DK-9220 Aalborg Ø, Tlf. +45 96 35 44 44, Fax +45 96 35 44 46, e-mail: windpro@emd.dk Project: IGIUGIG Printed/Page 11/2/2012 12:33 PM / 6 Licensed user: Knight Piesold Ltd 1999 Broadway, Suite 600 US-DENVER, CO 80202 +1 303 629 8788 Calculated: 11/2/2012 12:32 PM Meteo data report - Time series graphs Mast:MERGED DATA; A1A2; Igiugig merged A1 A2 data report Period:Full period: 10/2/2011 - 10/1/2012 (12.0 months) 3DJH$ WindPRO version 2.7.486 Jan 2011 WindPRO is developed by EMD International A/S, Niels Jernesvej 10, DK-9220 Aalborg Ø, Tlf. +45 96 35 44 44, Fax +45 96 35 44 46, e-mail: windpro@emd.dk Project: IGIUGIG Printed/Page 11/2/2012 12:33 PM / 7 Licensed user: Knight Piesold Ltd 1999 Broadway, Suite 600 US-DENVER, CO 80202 +1 303 629 8788 Calculated: 11/2/2012 12:32 PM Meteo data report - Time series graphs Mast:MERGED DATA; A1A2; Igiugig merged A1 A2 data report Period:Full period: 10/2/2011 - 10/1/2012 (12.0 months) 3DJH$ WindPRO version 2.7.486 Jan 2011 WindPRO is developed by EMD International A/S, Niels Jernesvej 10, DK-9220 Aalborg Ø, Tlf. +45 96 35 44 44, Fax +45 96 35 44 46, e-mail: windpro@emd.dk Project: IGIUGIG Printed/Page 11/2/2012 12:33 PM / 8 Licensed user: Knight Piesold Ltd 1999 Broadway, Suite 600 US-DENVER, CO 80202 +1 303 629 8788 Calculated: 11/2/2012 12:32 PM Meteo data report - Time series graphs Mast:MERGED DATA; A1A2; Igiugig merged A1 A2 data report Period:Full period: 10/2/2011 - 10/1/2012 (12.0 months) 3DJH$ WindPRO version 2.7.486 Jan 2011 WindPRO is developed by EMD International A/S, Niels Jernesvej 10, DK-9220 Aalborg Ø, Tlf. +45 96 35 44 44, Fax +45 96 35 44 46, e-mail: windpro@emd.dk Project: IGIUGIG Printed/Page 11/2/2012 12:33 PM / 9 Licensed user: Knight Piesold Ltd 1999 Broadway, Suite 600 US-DENVER, CO 80202 +1 303 629 8788 Calculated: 11/2/2012 12:32 PM Meteo data report - Time series graphs Mast:MERGED DATA; A1A2; Igiugig merged A1 A2 data report Period:Full period: 10/2/2011 - 10/1/2012 (12.0 months) 3DJH$ WindPRO version 2.7.486 Jan 2011 WindPRO is developed by EMD International A/S, Niels Jernesvej 10, DK-9220 Aalborg Ø, Tlf. +45 96 35 44 44, Fax +45 96 35 44 46, e-mail: windpro@emd.dk Project: IGIUGIG Printed/Page 11/2/2012 12:33 PM / 10 Licensed user: Knight Piesold Ltd 1999 Broadway, Suite 600 US-DENVER, CO 80202 +1 303 629 8788 Calculated: 11/2/2012 12:32 PM Meteo data report - Time series graphs Mast:MERGED DATA; A1A2; Igiugig merged A1 A2 data report Period:Full period: 10/2/2011 - 10/1/2012 (12.0 months) 3DJH$ WindPRO version 2.7.486 Jan 2011 WindPRO is developed by EMD International A/S, Niels Jernesvej 10, DK-9220 Aalborg Ø, Tlf. +45 96 35 44 44, Fax +45 96 35 44 46, e-mail: windpro@emd.dk Project: IGIUGIG Printed/Page 11/2/2012 12:33 PM / 11 Licensed user: Knight Piesold Ltd 1999 Broadway, Suite 600 US-DENVER, CO 80202 +1 303 629 8788 Calculated: 11/2/2012 12:32 PM Meteo data report - Monthly wind speeds Mast:MERGED DATA; A1A2; Igiugig merged A1 A2 data report Period:Full period: 10/2/2011 - 10/1/2012 (12.0 months) Monthly wind speeds 33.0m - A1A2 Month 2011 2012 Mean Mean of month January 5.21 5.21 5.21 February 8.56 8.56 8.56 March 5.57 5.57 5.57 April 5.93 5.93 5.93 May 5.76 5.76 5.76 June 5.18 5.18 5.18 July 4.58 4.58 4.58 August 5.00 5.00 5.00 September 6.19 6.19 6.19 October 5.00 4.47 4.99 4.74 November 6.43 6.43 6.43 December 6.78 6.78 6.78 mean, all data 6.08 5.75 mean of months 6.07 5.64 5.83 Monthly wind speeds 21.0m - B1 Month 2011 2012 Mean Mean of month January 4.57 4.57 4.57 February 7.74 7.74 7.74 March 5.04 5.04 5.04 April 5.35 5.35 5.35 May 5.23 5.23 5.23 June 4.88 4.88 4.88 July 4.18 4.18 4.18 August 4.55 4.55 4.55 September 5.52 5.52 5.52 October 4.39 3.90 4.38 4.14 November 5.68 5.68 5.68 December 6.00 6.00 6.00 mean, all data 5.37 5.21 mean of months 5.36 5.10 5.24 3DJH$ WindPRO version 2.7.486 Jan 2011 WindPRO is developed by EMD International A/S, Niels Jernesvej 10, DK-9220 Aalborg Ø, Tlf. +45 96 35 44 44, Fax +45 96 35 44 46, e-mail: windpro@emd.dk Project: IGIUGIG Printed/Page 11/2/2012 12:33 PM / 12 Licensed user: Knight Piesold Ltd 1999 Broadway, Suite 600 US-DENVER, CO 80202 +1 303 629 8788 Calculated: 11/2/2012 12:32 PM Meteo data report - Frequency distribution (TAB file data) Mast:MERGED DATA; A1A2; Igiugig merged A1 A2 data report Period:Full period: 10/2/2011 - 10/1/2012 (12.0 months) Frequency distribution (TAB file data) 33.0m - A1A2 Bin Start End Sum 0-N 1-NNE 2-ENE 3-E 4-ESE 5-SSE 6-S 7-SSW 8-WSW 9-W 10-WNW 11-NNW Mean 5.83 3.97 5.13 8.05 7.24 4.92 4.38 5.89 5.63 4.19 4.36 5.55 4.89 0 0.49 436 31 67 46 17 24 17 27 42 61 46 32 26 1 0.50 1.49 2582 225 220 195 151 154 176 266 325 278 231 178 183 2 1.50 2.49 4393 352 508 374 233 173 242 440 633 598 355 277 208 3 2.50 3.49 6042 462 821 608 279 195 254 593 1257 829 354 232 158 4 3.50 4.49 7055 372 1175 788 253 217 252 665 1660 941 305 259 168 5 4.50 5.49 7624 189 925 1046 229 198 291 915 2012 886 434 342 157 6 5.50 6.49 6291 100 693 1047 261 134 189 752 1631 486 408 445 145 7 6.50 7.49 4917 74 541 1071 275 86 102 580 1231 210 253 386 108 8 7.50 8.49 3512 49 436 917 276 76 47 364 802 91 109 252 93 9 8.50 9.49 2563 15 298 826 219 30 50 374 475 55 31 137 53 10 9.50 10.49 1928 14 184 759 162 21 44 258 293 35 18 89 51 11 10.50 11.49 1299 15 99 582 130 16 23 144 176 17 12 57 28 12 11.50 12.49 1064 24 48 505 131 16 2 109 109 23 14 57 26 13 12.50 13.49 795 40 27 373 108 26 6 64 73 12 4 31 31 14 13.50 14.49 658 24 17 339 87 19 7 45 77 21 0 8 14 15 14.50 15.49 498 9 9 293 74 8 6 37 45 14 0 2 1 16 15.50 16.49 311 0 2 186 43 10 1 22 39 4 0 1 3 17 16.50 17.49 225 0 0 141 35 5 0 9 35 0 0 0 0 18 17.50 18.49 160 0 0 101 30 6 1 15 7 0 0 0 0 19 18.50 19.49 86 0 0 47 11 3 0 9 16 0 0 0 0 20 19.50 20.49 67 0 0 38 7 6 0 2 14 0 0 0 0 21 20.50 21.49 29 0 0 17 1 1 0 7 3 0 0 0 0 22 21.50 22.49 15 0 0 11 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 23 22.50 23.49 8 0 0 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 24 23.50 24.49 4 0 0 2 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 25 24.50 25.49 4 0 0 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 26 25.50 26.49 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 27 26.50 27.49 2 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 28 27.50 28.49 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 29 28.50 29.49 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 30 29.50 30.49 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 31 30.50 31.49 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 32 31.50 32.49 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 33 32.50 33.49 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 34 33.50 34.49 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 35 34.50 35.49 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 36 35.50 36.49 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 37 36.50 37.49 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 38 37.50 38.49 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 39 38.50 39.49 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 40 39.50 40.49 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 41 40.50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3DJH$ WindPRO version 2.7.486 Jan 2011 WindPRO is developed by EMD International A/S, Niels Jernesvej 10, DK-9220 Aalborg Ø, Tlf. +45 96 35 44 44, Fax +45 96 35 44 46, e-mail: windpro@emd.dk Project: IGIUGIG Printed/Page 11/2/2012 12:33 PM / 13 Licensed user: Knight Piesold Ltd 1999 Broadway, Suite 600 US-DENVER, CO 80202 +1 303 629 8788 Calculated: 11/2/2012 12:32 PM Meteo data report - Frequency distribution (TAB file data) Mast:MERGED DATA; A1A2; Igiugig merged A1 A2 data report Period:Full period: 10/2/2011 - 10/1/2012 (12.0 months) Frequency distribution (TAB file data) 21.0m - B1 Bin Start End Sum 0-N 1-NNE 2-ENE 3-E 4-ESE 5-SSE 6-S 7-SSW 8-WSW 9-W 10-WNW 11-NNW Mean 5.25 3.66 4.70 7.17 6.36 4.26 3.91 5.32 5.23 3.89 3.81 4.63 4.11 0 0.49 522 44 62 46 23 34 22 30 56 57 55 45 48 1 0.50 1.49 2999 244 264 218 192 185 189 271 345 311 264 275 241 2 1.50 2.49 5237 413 598 518 284 205 287 503 759 736 432 281 221 3 2.50 3.49 7314 481 1014 788 314 248 298 751 1628 945 370 308 169 4 3.50 4.49 8612 345 1275 1126 266 267 338 962 1968 1040 453 384 188 5 4.50 5.49 7718 155 905 1195 310 150 245 966 1928 710 492 491 171 6 5.50 6.49 5626 92 629 1111 285 99 130 621 1405 393 306 426 129 7 6.50 7.49 4135 60 520 992 290 70 57 398 1137 144 120 254 93 8 7.50 8.49 2951 33 377 907 243 32 52 376 632 74 33 121 71 9 8.50 9.49 2179 13 207 815 183 25 42 312 386 48 20 86 42 10 9.50 10.49 1470 13 115 628 136 9 24 181 226 21 15 65 37 11 10.50 11.49 1129 27 49 520 148 21 6 118 141 22 14 36 27 12 11.50 12.49 793 35 26 409 95 27 7 67 87 16 0 11 13 13 12.50 13.49 682 28 18 364 97 17 6 46 85 16 0 2 3 14 13.50 14.49 467 11 9 260 57 12 5 36 54 23 0 0 0 15 14.50 15.49 284 1 2 171 40 6 1 18 40 5 0 0 0 16 15.50 16.49 208 0 0 120 31 6 0 15 36 0 0 0 0 17 16.50 17.49 95 0 0 55 15 3 1 10 11 0 0 0 0 18 17.50 18.49 77 0 0 44 3 7 0 8 15 0 0 0 0 19 18.50 19.49 37 0 0 15 0 1 0 8 13 0 0 0 0 20 19.50 20.49 17 0 0 10 1 0 0 2 4 0 0 0 0 21 20.50 21.49 7 0 0 4 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 22 21.50 22.49 7 0 0 5 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 23 22.50 23.49 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 24 23.50 24.49 3 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 25 24.50 25.49 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 26 25.50 26.49 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 27 26.50 27.49 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 28 27.50 28.49 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 29 28.50 29.49 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 30 29.50 30.49 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 31 30.50 31.49 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 32 31.50 32.49 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 33 32.50 33.49 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 34 33.50 34.49 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 35 34.50 35.49 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 36 35.50 36.49 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 37 36.50 37.49 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 38 37.50 38.49 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 39 38.50 39.49 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 40 39.50 40.49 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 41 40.50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3DJH$ WindPRO version 2.7.486 Jan 2011 WindPRO is developed by EMD International A/S, Niels Jernesvej 10, DK-9220 Aalborg Ø, Tlf. +45 96 35 44 44, Fax +45 96 35 44 46, e-mail: windpro@emd.dk Project: IGIUGIG Printed/Page 11/2/2012 12:33 PM / 14 Licensed user: Knight Piesold Ltd 1999 Broadway, Suite 600 US-DENVER, CO 80202 +1 303 629 8788 Calculated: 11/2/2012 12:32 PM Meteo data report - Mean + 1.28 x Stddev on turbulence (IEC ed. 3) Mast:MERGED DATA; A1A2; Igiugig merged A1 A2 data report Period:Full period: 10/2/2011 - 10/1/2012 (12.0 months) Mean + 1.28 x Stddev on turbulence (IEC ed. 3) 33.0m - A1A2 Bin Start End Mean 0-N 1-NNE 2-ENE 3-E 4-ESE 5-SSE 6-S 7-SSW 8-WSW 9-W 10-WNW 11-NNW Mean 0.14 0.12 0.15 0.14 0.12 0.16 0.14 0.10 0.13 0.15 0.14 0.18 0.21 00.49 10.501.49 21.502.49 32.503.49 4 3.50 4.49 0.16 0.13 0.15 0.16 0.12 0.24 0.17 0.11 0.14 0.17 0.16 0.21 0.26 5 4.50 5.49 0.15 0.12 0.15 0.14 0.14 0.16 0.13 0.10 0.13 0.16 0.14 0.20 0.24 6 5.50 6.49 0.14 0.15 0.15 0.14 0.13 0.13 0.12 0.10 0.13 0.15 0.13 0.18 0.23 7 6.50 7.49 0.14 0.10 0.14 0.14 0.12 0.17 0.11 0.10 0.12 0.13 0.12 0.18 0.20 8 7.50 8.49 0.14 0.10 0.14 0.14 0.12 0.15 0.15 0.10 0.12 0.13 0.12 0.18 0.19 9 8.50 9.49 0.13 0.10 0.14 0.14 0.12 0.13 0.12 0.10 0.11 0.13 0.12 0.18 0.18 10 9.50 10.49 0.14 0.10 0.14 0.14 0.12 0.13 0.14 0.10 0.12 0.12 0.14 0.17 0.19 11 10.50 11.49 0.13 0.09 0.13 0.14 0.11 0.11 0.12 0.10 0.11 0.14 0.12 0.15 0.18 12 11.50 12.49 0.13 0.09 0.13 0.13 0.11 0.14 0.18 0.10 0.11 0.14 0.11 0.15 0.16 13 12.50 13.49 0.13 0.09 0.15 0.14 0.12 0.12 0.18 0.10 0.12 0.13 0.11 0.14 0.16 14 13.50 14.49 0.13 0.10 0.15 0.14 0.12 0.13 0.18 0.10 0.12 0.13 0.14 0.15 15 14.50 15.49 0.13 0.09 0.13 0.13 0.11 0.13 0.15 0.10 0.13 0.13 0.17 16 15.50 16.49 0.13 0.13 0.14 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.13 0.15 0.12 17 16.50 17.49 0.13 0.14 0.11 0.09 0.11 0.13 18 17.50 18.49 0.13 0.13 0.11 0.10 0.12 0.14 19 18.50 19.49 0.13 0.14 0.11 0.09 0.11 0.13 20 19.50 20.49 0.12 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.10 0.13 21 20.50 21.49 0.12 0.12 0.11 0.11 22 21.50 22.49 0.12 0.12 0.09 0.15 23 22.50 23.49 0.09 0.09 0.09 24 23.50 24.49 0.10 0.09 25 24.50 25.49 0.09 0.09 26 25.50 26.49 27 26.50 27.49 0.09 0.09 28 27.50 28.49 29 28.50 29.49 30 29.50 30.49 31 30.50 31.49 32 31.50 32.49 33 32.50 33.49 34 33.50 34.49 35 34.50 35.49 36 35.50 36.49 37 36.50 37.49 38 37.50 38.49 39 38.50 39.49 40 39.50 40.49 41 40.50 3DJH$ WindPRO version 2.7.486 Jan 2011 WindPRO is developed by EMD International A/S, Niels Jernesvej 10, DK-9220 Aalborg Ø, Tlf. +45 96 35 44 44, Fax +45 96 35 44 46, e-mail: windpro@emd.dk Project: IGIUGIG Printed/Page 11/2/2012 12:33 PM / 15 Licensed user: Knight Piesold Ltd 1999 Broadway, Suite 600 US-DENVER, CO 80202 +1 303 629 8788 Calculated: 11/2/2012 12:32 PM Meteo data report - Mean + 1.28 x Stddev on turbulence (IEC ed. 3) Mast:MERGED DATA; A1A2; Igiugig merged A1 A2 data report Period:Full period: 10/2/2011 - 10/1/2012 (12.0 months) Mean + 1.28 x Stddev on turbulence (IEC ed. 3) 21.0m - B1 Bin Start End Mean 0-N 1-NNE 2-ENE 3-E 4-ESE 5-SSE 6-S 7-SSW 8-WSW 9-W 10-WNW 11-NNW Mean 0.18 0.19 0.17 0.18 0.20 0.18 0.17 0.16 0.16 0.18 0.21 0.23 0.24 00.49 10.501.49 21.502.49 32.503.49 4 3.50 4.49 0.19 0.21 0.18 0.18 0.22 0.19 0.17 0.15 0.16 0.19 0.22 0.26 0.29 5 4.50 5.49 0.19 0.21 0.18 0.17 0.21 0.17 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.18 0.22 0.23 0.26 6 5.50 6.49 0.18 0.23 0.16 0.17 0.20 0.20 0.15 0.16 0.16 0.17 0.20 0.23 0.22 7 6.50 7.49 0.18 0.15 0.16 0.18 0.20 0.17 0.16 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.20 0.22 0.23 8 7.50 8.49 0.17 0.15 0.15 0.18 0.19 0.18 0.19 0.15 0.14 0.15 0.20 0.21 0.21 9 8.50 9.49 0.18 0.16 0.15 0.18 0.20 0.17 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.13 0.21 0.22 0.22 10 9.50 10.49 0.18 0.14 0.15 0.18 0.18 0.15 0.14 0.15 0.15 0.14 0.20 0.21 0.19 11 10.50 11.49 0.18 0.15 0.15 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.17 0.16 0.14 0.15 0.17 0.21 0.18 12 11.50 12.49 0.18 0.14 0.17 0.18 0.19 0.18 0.18 0.16 0.15 0.16 0.20 0.15 13 12.50 13.49 0.18 0.15 0.15 0.18 0.19 0.16 0.20 0.15 0.15 0.14 0.20 0.14 14 13.50 14.49 0.17 0.14 0.14 0.18 0.18 0.17 0.17 0.15 0.15 0.14 15 14.50 15.49 0.17 0.15 0.18 0.18 0.15 0.17 0.16 0.14 16 15.50 16.49 0.17 0.18 0.18 0.16 0.17 0.14 17 16.50 17.49 0.17 0.18 0.18 0.15 0.18 0.15 18 17.50 18.49 0.17 0.17 0.18 0.15 0.15 0.14 19 18.50 19.49 0.16 0.17 0.16 0.13 20 19.50 20.49 0.17 0.18 0.12 0.14 21 20.50 21.49 0.17 0.17 0.17 22 21.50 22.49 0.17 0.17 23 22.50 23.49 24 23.50 24.49 0.15 0.15 25 24.50 25.49 26 25.50 26.49 27 26.50 27.49 28 27.50 28.49 29 28.50 29.49 30 29.50 30.49 31 30.50 31.49 32 31.50 32.49 33 32.50 33.49 34 33.50 34.49 35 34.50 35.49 36 35.50 36.49 37 36.50 37.49 38 37.50 38.49 39 38.50 39.49 40 39.50 40.49 41 40.50 3DJH$ WindPRO version 2.7.486 Jan 2011 WindPRO is developed by EMD International A/S, Niels Jernesvej 10, DK-9220 Aalborg Ø, Tlf. +45 96 35 44 44, Fax +45 96 35 44 46, e-mail: windpro@emd.dk Project: IGIUGIG Printed/Page 11/2/2012 12:33 PM / 16 Licensed user: Knight Piesold Ltd 1999 Broadway, Suite 600 US-DENVER, CO 80202 +1 303 629 8788 Calculated: 11/2/2012 12:32 PM Meteo data report - Weibull data overview Mast:MERGED DATA; A1A2; Igiugig merged A1 A2 data report Period:Full period: 10/2/2011 - 10/1/2012 (12.0 months) Height:33.0m - A1A2 Weibull data Sector A k f Mean wind speed [m/s] [m/s] 0-N 4.22 1.302 3.79 3.90 1-NNE 5.73 1.975 11.55 5.08 2-ENE 9.03 1.987 19.64 8.01 3-E 8.34 1.866 5.74 7.40 4-ESE 5.45 1.375 2.71 4.98 5-SSE 5.14 1.849 3.25 4.57 6-S 6.59 1.817 10.84 5.86 7-SSW 6.27 1.897 20.84 5.57 8-WSW 4.86 1.974 8.68 4.31 9-W 5.20 2.422 4.90 4.61 10-WNW 6.59 2.452 5.30 5.84 11-NNW 5.66 1.654 2.76 5.06 Mean 6.57 1.723 100.00 5.86 3DJH$ WindPRO version 2.7.486 Jan 2011 WindPRO is developed by EMD International A/S, Niels Jernesvej 10, DK-9220 Aalborg Ø, Tlf. +45 96 35 44 44, Fax +45 96 35 44 46, e-mail: windpro@emd.dk Project: IGIUGIG Printed/Page 11/2/2012 12:33 PM / 17 Licensed user: Knight Piesold Ltd 1999 Broadway, Suite 600 US-DENVER, CO 80202 +1 303 629 8788 Calculated: 11/2/2012 12:32 PM Meteo data report - Weibull data overview Mast:MERGED DATA; A1A2; Igiugig merged A1 A2 data report Period:Full period: 10/2/2011 - 10/1/2012 (12.0 months) Height:21.0m - B1 Weibull data Sector A k f Mean wind speed [m/s] [m/s] 0-N 3.95 1.305 3.79 3.64 1-NNE 5.24 1.963 11.55 4.64 2-ENE 8.08 1.970 19.64 7.16 3-E 7.33 1.837 5.74 6.51 4-ESE 4.61 1.287 2.71 4.26 5-SSE 4.52 1.753 3.25 4.03 6-S 5.83 1.693 10.84 5.20 7-SSW 5.82 1.840 20.84 5.18 8-WSW 4.49 1.883 8.68 3.99 9-W 4.53 2.343 4.90 4.02 10-WNW 5.51 2.346 5.30 4.88 11-NNW 4.82 1.684 2.76 4.30 Mean 5.90 1.691 100.00 5.26 3DJH$ Appendix B Measure, Correlate, Predict (MCP) – Results of the Correlation of met data to local AWOS station WindPRO version 2.7.486 Jan 2011 WindPRO is developed by EMD International A/S, Niels Jernesvej 10, DK-9220 Aalborg Ø, Tlf. +45 96 35 44 44, Fax +45 96 35 44 46, e-mail: windpro@emd.dk Project: IGIUGIG Printed/Page 11/2/2012 12:36 PM / 1 Licensed user: Knight Piesold Ltd 1999 Broadway, Suite 600 US-DENVER, CO 80202 +1 303 629 8788 Calculated: 11/2/2012 12:36 PM/2.7.486 MCP - Measure data - overview Calculation:Igiugig Airport - met tower Meteo data objects 1: Local measurements (site data): MERGED DATA.33.0m - A1A2 First date: 10/2/2011 Last date: 10/1/2012 Time step: 10 min Data points: 52570 Enabled:100.0 % Mean wind speed: 5.86 m/s Time Series Data: Yes 2: Long term reference: PAIG Met Data.10.0m - A First date: 9/29/2005 Last date: 10/2/2012 Time step: 60 min Data points: 72129 Enabled:100.0 % Mean wind speed: 4.84 m/s Time Series Data: Yes Filter values Filter for site data Averaging time: 60 min Filter for reference data Averaging time: 60 min 3DJH% WindPRO version 2.7.486 Jan 2011 WindPRO is developed by EMD International A/S, Niels Jernesvej 10, DK-9220 Aalborg Ø, Tlf. +45 96 35 44 44, Fax +45 96 35 44 46, e-mail: windpro@emd.dk Project: IGIUGIG Printed/Page 11/2/2012 12:36 PM / 2 Licensed user: Knight Piesold Ltd 1999 Broadway, Suite 600 US-DENVER, CO 80202 +1 303 629 8788 Calculated: 11/2/2012 12:36 PM/2.7.486 MCP - Calculation:Igiugig Airport - met tower 1: Local measurements (site data)MERGED DATA Height 33.00 m Period 10/2/2011 to 10/1/2012 1.0 years Mean wind speed 5.81 m/s Filters used (Averaging) 2: Long term reference PAIG Met Data Height 10.00 m Period 9/29/2005 to 10/2/2012 7.0 years Mean wind speed 4.72 m/s Filters used (Averaging) Calculation setup Method Find transfer function for each 1 degree Sector window 30.00 [deg] Skip angle differences larger than 60.00 Skip wind speeds less than 3.00 Regression model (wind speed)Linear (1st order polynomial) Regression model (wind direction)Constant (0th order polynomial) Wind speed model - use residual resampling Yes Wind direction model - use residual resampling Yes Results Measure height a.g.l.33.0 m Mean wind in measure height 6.11 m/s r - wind speed 0.8753 s - wind speed 1.6756 m/s r - wind index 0.9913 s - wind index 2.9190 % Time of calculation 11/2/2012 12:35 PM 3DJH% WindPRO version 2.7.486 Jan 2011 WindPRO is developed by EMD International A/S, Niels Jernesvej 10, DK-9220 Aalborg Ø, Tlf. +45 96 35 44 44, Fax +45 96 35 44 46, e-mail: windpro@emd.dk Project: IGIUGIG Printed/Page 11/2/2012 12:36 PM / 3 Licensed user: Knight Piesold Ltd 1999 Broadway, Suite 600 US-DENVER, CO 80202 +1 303 629 8788 Calculated: 11/2/2012 12:36 PM/2.7.486 MCP - Regression MCP report (basic/overview) Calculation:Igiugig Airport - met tower MCP method used: Regression MCP Long term reference data: PAIG Met Data Height: 10.00 Concurrent site data: MERGED DATA Height: 33.00 3DJH% WindPRO version 2.7.486 Jan 2011 WindPRO is developed by EMD International A/S, Niels Jernesvej 10, DK-9220 Aalborg Ø, Tlf. +45 96 35 44 44, Fax +45 96 35 44 46, e-mail: windpro@emd.dk Project: IGIUGIG Printed/Page 11/2/2012 12:36 PM / 4 Licensed user: Knight Piesold Ltd 1999 Broadway, Suite 600 US-DENVER, CO 80202 +1 303 629 8788 Calculated: 11/2/2012 12:36 PM/2.7.486 MCP - Regression MCP report - details on wind speed fit Calculation:Igiugig Airport - met tower 3DJH% WindPRO version 2.7.486 Jan 2011 WindPRO is developed by EMD International A/S, Niels Jernesvej 10, DK-9220 Aalborg Ø, Tlf. +45 96 35 44 44, Fax +45 96 35 44 46, e-mail: windpro@emd.dk Project: IGIUGIG Printed/Page 11/2/2012 12:36 PM / 5 Licensed user: Knight Piesold Ltd 1999 Broadway, Suite 600 US-DENVER, CO 80202 +1 303 629 8788 Calculated: 11/2/2012 12:36 PM/2.7.486 MCP - Regression MCP report - details on wind speed residuals (Gauss paper) Calculation:Igiugig Airport - met tower 3DJH% Appendix C Turbine Production Analysis Report WindPRO version 2.7.486 Jan 2011 WindPRO is developed by EMD International A/S, Niels Jernesvej 10, DK-9220 Aalborg Ø, Tlf. +45 96 35 44 44, Fax +45 96 35 44 46, e-mail: windpro@emd.dk Project: IGIUGIG Printed/Page 11/2/2012 12:39 PM / 1 Licensed user: Knight Piesold Ltd 1999 Broadway, Suite 600 US-DENVER, CO 80202 +1 303 629 8788 Calculated: 10/5/2012 7:52 AM/2.7.486 PARK - Main Result Calculation:AEP from ultra-high-res WRA Wake Model N.O. Jensen (RISØ/EMD) Calculation Settings Air density calculation mode Individual per WTG Result for WTG at hub altitude 1.285 kg/m³ to 1.287 kg/m³ Air density relative to standard 105.0 % Hub altitude above sea level (asl) 55.1 m to 70.5 m Annual mean temperature at hub alt. -0.8 °C to -0.7 °C Pressure at WTGs 1,004.3 hPa to 1,006.3 hPa Wake Model Parameters Wake Decay Constant 0.075 Open farmland Wake calculation settings Angle [°] Wind speed [m/s] start end step start end step 0.5 360.0 1.0 0.5 30.5 1.0 Scale 1:50,000 New WTG Resource file(s) C:\WindPro\WINDPRO_Data\PROJECTS\LPB\IGIUGIG\IGIUGIG_Res_10_Hub_30_37_1.rsf Calculated Annual Energy for Wind Farm Specific results¤) WTG combination Result Result-10.0% GROSS (no loss) Park Capacity Mean WTG Full load Mean wind speed PARK Free WTGs efficiency factor result hours @hub height [MWh/y] [MWh] [MWh/y] [%] [%] [MWh/y] [Hours/year] [m/s] Wind farm 760.9 684.9 761.2 100.0 26.0 228.3 2,283 6.3 ¤) Based on Result-10.0% Calculated Annual Energy for each of 3 new WTGs with total 0.3 MW rated power WTG type Power curve Annual Energy Park Terrain Valid Manufact. Type-generator Power, Rotor Hub height Creator Name Result Result-10.0% Efficiency Mean wind rated diameter speed [kW] [m] [m] [MWh] [MWh] [%] [m/s] 1 A No NORTHWIND 100 Arctic-100 100 21.0 37.0 USER Arctic 100 247.7 223 100.0 6.20 2 A No NORTHWIND 100 Arctic-100 100 21.0 37.0 USER Arctic 100 252.8 228 99.9 6.28 3 A No NORTHWIND 100 Arctic-100 100 21.0 37.0 USER Arctic 100 260.5 234 100.0 6.39 WTG siting UTM WGS84 Zone: 5 East North Z Row data/Description UTM WGS84 Zone: 5 [m] 1 New 334,375 6,577,979 33.5 Turbine Sites 1 2 New 334,838 6,579,435 24.4 Turbine site 2 3 New 337,917 6,579,686 18.1 Turbine Site 3 3DJH& WindPRO version 2.7.486 Jan 2011 WindPRO is developed by EMD International A/S, Niels Jernesvej 10, DK-9220 Aalborg Ø, Tlf. +45 96 35 44 44, Fax +45 96 35 44 46, e-mail: windpro@emd.dk Project: IGIUGIG Printed/Page 11/2/2012 12:39 PM / 2 Licensed user: Knight Piesold Ltd 1999 Broadway, Suite 600 US-DENVER, CO 80202 +1 303 629 8788 Calculated: 10/5/2012 7:52 AM/2.7.486 PARK - Production Analysis Calculation:AEP from ultra-high-res WRAWTG:All new WTGs, Air density varies with WTG position 1.285 kg/m³ - 1.287 kg/m³ Directional Analysis Sector 0 N 1 NNE 2 ENE 3 E 4 ESE 5 SSE 6 S 7 SSW 8 WSW 9 W 10 WNW 11 NNW Total Roughness based energy [MWh] 11.4 63.8 263.2 78.2 8.9 16.0 69.5 148.3 29.6 13.6 29.6 29.1 761.2 -Decrease due to array losses [MWh] 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 Resulting energy [MWh] 11.4 63.7 263.2 78.1 8.9 16.0 69.5 148.2 29.5 13.6 29.6 29.1 760.9 Specific energy [kWh/m²]732 Specific energy [kWh/kW]2,536 Decrease due to array losses [%] 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.03 Utilization [%] 32.1 32.2 18.7 16.4 26.4 30.8 30.0 29.7 35.8 36.6 32.1 30.7 23.5 Operational [Hours/year] 146 759 1,468 416 92 218 879 1,562 590 296 324 294 7,043 Full Load Equivalent [Hours/year] 38 212 877 260 30 53 232 494 98 45 99 97 2,536 3DJH& WindPRO version 2.7.486 Jan 2011 WindPRO is developed by EMD International A/S, Niels Jernesvej 10, DK-9220 Aalborg Ø, Tlf. +45 96 35 44 44, Fax +45 96 35 44 46, e-mail: windpro@emd.dk Project: IGIUGIG Printed/Page 11/2/2012 12:39 PM / 3 Licensed user: Knight Piesold Ltd 1999 Broadway, Suite 600 US-DENVER, CO 80202 +1 303 629 8788 Calculated: 10/5/2012 7:52 AM/2.7.486 PARK - Power Curve Analysis Calculation:AEP from ultra-high-res WRAWTG:1 - NORTHWIND 100 Arctic 60Hz 100 21.0 !O! Arctic 100, Hub height: 37.0 m Name:Arctic 100 Source:SpecSheet Source/Date Created by Created Edited Stop wind speed Power control CT curve type [m/s] 10/12/2009 USER 10/12/2009 10/12/2009 25.0 Stall Standard stall HP curve comparison - Note: For standard air density and weibull k parameter = 2 Vmean [m/s] 5678910 HP value [MWh] 146 222 306 379 427 493 NORTHWIND 100 Arctic 60Hz 100 21.0 !O! Arctic 100 [MWh] 147 222 298 369 431 482 Check value [%] 0 0 2 3 -1 2 The table shows comparison between annual energy production calculated on basis of simplified "HP-curves" which assume that all WTGs performs quite similar - only specific power loading (kW/m^2) and single/dual speed or stall/pitch decides the calculated values. Productions are without wake losses. For further details, ask at the Danish Energy Agency for project report J.nr. 51171/00-0016 or see WindPRO manual chapter 3.5.2. The method is refined in EMD report "20 Detailed Case Studies comparing Project Design Calculations and actual Energy Productions for Wind Energy Projects worldwide", jan 2003. Use the table to evaluate if the given power curve is reasonable - if the check value are lower than -5%, the power curve probably is too optimistic due to uncertainty in power curve measurement. Power curve Original data from Windcat, Air density: 1.225 kg/m³ Wind speed Power Ce Wind speed Ct curve [m/s] [kW] [m/s] 1.0 0.0 0.00 1.0 0.10 2.0 0.0 0.00 2.0 0.10 3.0 0.0 0.00 3.0 0.10 4.0 3.7 0.27 4.0 0.80 5.0 10.5 0.40 5.0 0.82 6.0 19.0 0.41 6.0 0.85 7.0 29.4 0.40 7.0 0.82 8.0 41.0 0.38 8.0 0.78 9.0 54.3 0.35 9.0 0.74 10.0 66.8 0.31 10.0 0.68 11.0 77.7 0.28 11.0 0.62 12.0 86.4 0.24 12.0 0.55 13.0 92.8 0.20 13.0 0.49 14.0 97.3 0.17 14.0 0.43 15.0 100.0 0.14 15.0 0.38 16.0 100.8 0.12 16.0 0.32 17.0 100.6 0.10 17.0 0.28 18.0 99.8 0.08 18.0 0.25 19.0 99.4 0.07 19.0 0.21 20.0 98.6 0.06 20.0 0.20 21.0 97.8 0.05 21.0 0.19 22.0 97.3 0.04 22.0 0.17 23.0 97.3 0.04 23.0 0.16 24.0 98.0 0.03 24.0 0.15 25.0 99.7 0.03 25.0 0.14 26.0 0.13 27.0 0.12 28.0 0.11 29.0 0.10 Power, Efficiency and energy vs. wind speed Data used in calculation, Air density: 1.285 kg/m³ New WindPRO method (adjusted IEC method, improved to match turbine control) <RECOMMENDED> Wind speed Power Ce Interval Energy Acc.Energy Relative [m/s] [kW] [m/s] [MWh] [MWh] [%] 1.0 0.0 0.00 0.50- 1.50 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.00 1.50- 2.50 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 0.0 0.00 2.50- 3.50 1.0 1.0 0.4 4.0 3.9 0.27 3.50- 4.50 5.1 6.1 2.5 5.0 11.0 0.40 4.50- 5.50 12.2 18.3 7.4 6.0 19.9 0.41 5.50- 6.50 19.8 38.1 15.4 7.0 30.8 0.40 6.50- 7.50 26.0 64.1 25.9 8.0 43.0 0.38 7.50- 8.50 29.5 93.6 37.8 9.0 56.9 0.35 8.50- 9.50 30.2 123.8 50.0 10.0 70.1 0.31 9.50-10.50 28.1 151.9 61.3 11.0 81.5 0.28 10.50-11.50 24.3 176.2 71.1 12.0 90.6 0.24 11.50-12.50 19.7 195.8 79.1 13.0 97.3 0.20 12.50-13.50 15.2 211.0 85.2 14.0 102.0 0.17 13.50-14.50 11.3 222.4 89.8 15.0 104.9 0.14 14.50-15.50 8.2 230.5 93.1 16.0 105.7 0.12 15.50-16.50 5.8 236.3 95.4 17.0 105.5 0.10 16.50-17.50 4.0 240.3 97.0 18.0 104.7 0.08 17.50-18.50 2.7 242.9 98.1 19.0 104.2 0.07 18.50-19.50 1.8 244.7 98.8 20.0 103.4 0.06 19.50-20.50 1.2 245.9 99.3 21.0 102.6 0.05 20.50-21.50 0.8 246.7 99.6 22.0 102.0 0.04 21.50-22.50 0.5 247.1 99.8 23.0 102.0 0.04 22.50-23.50 0.3 247.4 99.9 24.0 102.8 0.03 23.50-24.50 0.2 247.6 100.0 25.0 104.6 0.03 24.50-25.50 0.1 247.7 100.0 3DJH& WindPRO version 2.7.486 Jan 2011 WindPRO is developed by EMD International A/S, Niels Jernesvej 10, DK-9220 Aalborg Ø, Tlf. +45 96 35 44 44, Fax +45 96 35 44 46, e-mail: windpro@emd.dk Project: IGIUGIG Printed/Page 11/2/2012 12:39 PM / 4 Licensed user: Knight Piesold Ltd 1999 Broadway, Suite 600 US-DENVER, CO 80202 +1 303 629 8788 Calculated: 10/5/2012 7:52 AM/2.7.486 PARK - Wind Data Analysis Calculation:AEP from ultra-high-res WRA Wind data: A - Resource file(s); Hub height: 37.0 Site Coordinates UTM WGS 84 Zone: 5 East: 334,375 North: 6,577,979 Turbine Sites 1 RSF file C:\WindPro\WINDPRO_Data\PROJECTS\LPB\IGIUGIG\IGIUGIG_Res_10_Hub_30_37_1.rsf Weibull Data Sector A- parameter Wind speed k- parameter Frequency [m/s] [m/s] [%] 0 N 5.90 5.23 2.010 2.1 1 NNE 6.20 5.49 2.074 11.1 2 ENE 9.25 8.19 2.030 21.0 3 E 9.70 8.60 1.930 5.3 4 ESE 6.50 5.79 1.740 1.3 5 SSE 5.80 5.16 1.810 3.0 6 S 6.00 5.33 1.810 12.5 7 SSW 6.70 5.94 1.990 22.4 8 WSW 5.10 4.52 2.190 8.3 9 W 5.10 4.52 2.320 4.2 10 WNW 6.50 5.76 2.210 4.6 11 NNW 6.70 5.93 2.150 4.1 All 6.97 6.20 1.803 100.0 3DJH& WindPRO version 2.7.486 Jan 2011 WindPRO is developed by EMD International A/S, Niels Jernesvej 10, DK-9220 Aalborg Ø, Tlf. +45 96 35 44 44, Fax +45 96 35 44 46, e-mail: windpro@emd.dk Project: IGIUGIG Printed/Page 11/2/2012 12:39 PM / 5 Licensed user: Knight Piesold Ltd 1999 Broadway, Suite 600 US-DENVER, CO 80202 +1 303 629 8788 Calculated: 10/5/2012 7:52 AM/2.7.486 PARK - Wind Data Analysis Calculation:AEP from ultra-high-res WRA Wind data: A - Resource file(s); Hub height: 37.0 Site Coordinates UTM WGS 84 Zone: 5 East: 334,838 North: 6,579,435 Turbine site 2 RSF file C:\WindPro\WINDPRO_Data\PROJECTS\LPB\IGIUGIG\IGIUGIG_Res_10_Hub_30_37_1.rsf Weibull Data Sector A- parameter Wind speed k- parameter Frequency [m/s] [m/s] [%] 0 N 5.80 5.14 2.010 2.0 1 NNE 6.30 5.58 2.120 10.8 2 ENE 9.60 8.51 2.030 20.8 3 E 9.80 8.69 1.940 5.9 4 ESE 6.50 5.79 1.740 1.3 5 SSE 5.80 5.16 1.810 3.1 6 S 6.00 5.33 1.810 12.5 7 SSW 6.60 5.85 1.990 22.2 8 WSW 5.27 4.67 2.170 8.5 9 W 5.10 4.52 2.320 4.2 10 WNW 6.50 5.76 2.210 4.6 11 NNW 6.60 5.85 2.150 4.2 All 7.06 6.28 1.783 100.0 3DJH& WindPRO version 2.7.486 Jan 2011 WindPRO is developed by EMD International A/S, Niels Jernesvej 10, DK-9220 Aalborg Ø, Tlf. +45 96 35 44 44, Fax +45 96 35 44 46, e-mail: windpro@emd.dk Project: IGIUGIG Printed/Page 11/2/2012 12:39 PM / 6 Licensed user: Knight Piesold Ltd 1999 Broadway, Suite 600 US-DENVER, CO 80202 +1 303 629 8788 Calculated: 10/5/2012 7:52 AM/2.7.486 PARK - Park power curve Calculation:AEP from ultra-high-res WRA Power Wind speed Free WTGs Park WTGs N NNE ENE E ESE SSE S SSW WSW W WNW NNW [m/s] [kW] [kW] [kW] [kW] [kW] [kW] [kW] [kW] [kW] [kW] [kW] [kW] [kW] [kW] 0.5 0 00000000 0 00 0 0 1.5 0 00000000 0 00 0 0 2.5 0 00000000 0 00 0 0 3.5 6 66666666 6 66 6 6 4.5 22 2222222222222222 22 2222 22 22 5.5 47 4646464646464646 46 4646 46 46 6.5 76 7676767676767676 76 7676 76 76 7.5 111 111 111 111 111 111 111 111 111 111 111 111 111 111 8.5 151 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 9.5 191 191 191 191 191 191 191 191 191 191 191 191 191 191 10.5 228 227 227 227 227 227 227 227 227 227 227 227 227 227 11.5 259 258 258 258 258 258 258 258 258 258 258 258 258 258 12.5 283 282 282 282 282 282 282 282 282 282 282 282 282 282 13.5 300 299 299 299 299 299 299 299 299 299 299 299 299 299 14.5 312 311 311 311 311 311 311 311 311 311 311 311 311 311 15.5 317 316 316 316 316 316 316 316 316 316 316 316 316 316 16.5 318 317 317 317 317 317 317 317 317 317 317 317 317 317 17.5 317 316 316 316 316 316 316 316 316 316 316 316 316 316 18.5 315 314 314 314 314 314 314 314 314 314 314 314 314 314 19.5 313 312 312 312 312 312 312 312 312 312 312 312 312 312 20.5 310 309 309 309 309 309 309 309 309 309 309 309 309 309 21.5 308 307 307 307 307 307 307 307 307 307 307 307 307 307 22.5 308 306 306 306 306 306 306 306 306 306 306 306 306 306 23.5 309 307 307 307 307 307 307 307 307 307 307 307 307 307 24.5 312 311 311 311 311 311 311 311 311 311 311 311 311 311 25.5 0 00000000 0 00 0 0 26.5 0 00000000 0 00 0 0 27.5 0 00000000 0 00 0 0 28.5 0 00000000 0 00 0 0 29.5 0 00000000 0 00 0 0 Description: The park power curve is similar to a WTG power curve, meaning that when a given wind speed appears in front of the park with same speed in the entire wind farm area (before influence from the park), the output from the park can be found in the park power curve. Another way to say this: The park power curve includes array losses, but do NOT include terrain given variations in the wind speed over the park area. Measuring a park power curve is not as simple as measuring a WTG power curve due to the fact that the park power curve depends on the wind direction and that the same wind speed normally will not appear for the entire park area at the same time (only in very flat non-complex terrain). The idea with this version of the park power curve is not to use it for validation based on measurements. This would require at least 2 measurement masts at two sides of the park, unless only a few direction sectors should be tested, AND non complex terrain (normally only useable off shore). Another park power curve version for complex terrain is available in WindPRO. The park power curve can be used for: 1. Forecast systems, based on more rough (approximated) wind data, the park power curve would be an efficient way to make the connection from wind speed (and direction) to power. 2. Construction of duration curves, telling how often a given power output will appear, the park power curve can be used together with the average wind distribution for the Wind farm area in hub height. The average wind distribution can eventually be obtained based on the Weibull parameters for each WTG position. These are found at print menu: >Result to file< in the >Park result< which can be saved to file or copied to clipboard and pasted in Excel. 3. Calculation of wind energy index based on the PARK production (see below). 4. Estimation of the expected PARK production for an existing wind farm based on wind measurements at minimum 2 measurement masts at two sides of wind farm. The masts must be used for obtaining the free wind speed. The free wind speed is used in the simulation of expected energy production with the PARK power curve. This procedure will only work suitable in non complex terrains. For complex terrain another park power curve calculation is available in WindPRO (PPV-model). Note: From the >Result to file< the >Wind Speeds Inside Wind farm< is also available. These can (e.g. via Excel) be used for extracting the wake induced reductions in measured wind speed. 3DJH& WindPRO version 2.7.486 Jan 2011 WindPRO is developed by EMD International A/S, Niels Jernesvej 10, DK-9220 Aalborg Ø, Tlf. +45 96 35 44 44, Fax +45 96 35 44 46, e-mail: windpro@emd.dk Project: IGIUGIG Printed/Page 11/2/2012 12:39 PM / 7 Licensed user: Knight Piesold Ltd 1999 Broadway, Suite 600 US-DENVER, CO 80202 +1 303 629 8788 Calculated: 10/5/2012 7:52 AM/2.7.486 PARK - Map Calculation:AEP from ultra-high-res WRA 0 250 500 750 1000 m Map: WindPRO map , Print scale 1:25,000, Map center UTM WGS 84 Zone: 5 East: 336,146 North: 6,578,833 New WTG 3DJH& Appendix D Economic Results for Current Population and Electric Demand Diesel Price ($/gal.) 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