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HomeMy WebLinkAboutWainwright Wind-Diesel Generation Project Feasibility Study - Dec 2011 - REF Grant 7030013DRAFT Wainwright Wind-Diesel Hybrid Feasibility Study December 22, 2011 Douglas Vaught, P.E. V3 Energy, LLC Eagle River, Alaska Wainwright Wind-Diesel Hybrid Feasibility Study P a g e | i This report was prepared by V3 Energy, LLC under contract to WHPacific for a North Slope Borough project to assess the technical and economic feasibility of installing wind turbines in a wind-diesel hybrid power system design for the villages of Point Hope, Point Lay, and Wainwright, Alaska. This report addresses Wainwright. Contents Executive Summary....................................................................................................................................... 1 1 Introduction.......................................................................................................................................... 3 1.1 Scope of Work............................................................................................................................... 3 1.2 Village of Wainwright.................................................................................................................... 3 1.3 Climate.......................................................................................................................................... 4 1.4 Geology......................................................................................................................................... 5 1.5 Permitting ..................................................................................................................................... 5 2 Wind Resource Assessment.................................................................................................................. 6 2.1 Met tower data synopsis .............................................................................................................. 6 2.2 Data Recovery............................................................................................................................... 6 2.3 Wind Speed................................................................................................................................... 6 2.4 Wind Rose..................................................................................................................................... 7 2.5 Turbulence Intensity..................................................................................................................... 7 2.6 Extreme Winds.............................................................................................................................. 8 3 Wind Project Sites................................................................................................................................. 9 3.1 Site A............................................................................................................................................. 9 3.2 Site B...........................................................................................................................................10 3.3 Other Site Options ......................................................................................................................11 4 Wind-Diesel System Design and Equipment.......................................................................................12 4.1 Wind-diesel Integration Controls................................................................................................13 4.2 Energy Storage Options ...............................................................................................................13 4.2.1 Batteries..............................................................................................................................13 4.2.2 PowerStore Flywheel..........................................................................................................14 5 Wind Turbines and HOMER Modeling....................................................................................................15 5.1 Diesel Power Plant......................................................................................................................15 5.2 Wind Turbines.............................................................................................................................16 Wainwright Wind-Diesel Hybrid Feasibility Study P a g e | ii 5.2.1 Northern Power Systems Northwind 100...........................................................................16 5.2.2 Aeronautica AW29-225.......................................................................................................17 5.2.3 Wind Turbine Performance Comparison............................................................................18 5.3 Modeling.....................................................................................................................................18 5.3.1 Electric Load........................................................................................................................18 5.3.2 Thermal Load ......................................................................................................................19 5.4 Diesel Generators........................................................................................................................19 6 Economic Analysis...............................................................................................................................21 6.1 Wind Turbine Costs.....................................................................................................................21 6.2 Fuel Cost......................................................................................................................................21 6.3 HOMER Modeling Assumptions..................................................................................................22 6.4 Wind Power Scenario Cost Assumptions....................................................................................23 6.5 Site A Project Economics.............................................................................................................24 6.5.1 Medium Fuel Price Projection, 82% Turbine Availability....................................................24 6.5.2 High Fuel Price Projection, 82% Turbine Availability..........................................................25 6.5.3 Low Fuel Price Projection, 82% Turbine Availability...........................................................26 6.5.4 Medium Fuel Price Projection, 100% Turbine Availability..................................................27 6.6 Site B Project Economics.............................................................................................................28 6.6.1 Medium Fuel Price Projection, 82% Turbine Availability....................................................28 6.6.2 High Fuel Price Projection, 82% Turbine Availability..........................................................29 6.6.3 Low Fuel Price Projection, 82% Turbine Availability...........................................................30 6.6.4 Medium Fuel Price Projection, 100% Turbine Availability..................................................31 7 Conclusion and Recommendations.....................................................................................................32 Appendix A: Notice of Presumed Hazard, Site A........................................................................................33 Appendix B: Determination of No Hazard, Site B ......................................................................................34 Appendix C: Northwind 100 Wind Turbine................................................................................................35 Appendix D: Aeronautica AW29-225 Wind Turbine..................................................................................36 Wainwright Wind-Diesel Hybrid Feasibility Study P a g e | 1 Executive Summary The measured high Class 4 to Class 5 wind resource in Wainwright, based on a wind classification system with a range of 1 (poor) to 7 (superb) in terms of wind energy potential, is excellent with an average wind velocity of 6.96 m/s (15.5 mph) at 30 meters elevation. Additionally, the test location experiences low turbulence and relatively low probability of extreme wind events, making Wainwright a superior candidate for a wind energy project. Two potential wind turbine sites were investigated for this study: Site A, the location of the meteorological test tower that collected wind data for this project, is located northeast of the village near the power plant and just beyond the protective snow fence; and site B, located two further miles to the northeast, along the road leading to the landfill and village water source. Given the similarity of terrain between the sites, each was considered to have equivalent wind resource potential. Site A has an FAA-imposed height restriction which would require shorter turbine tower heights, whereas Site B has no height restrictions. Site A requires construction of an access road but is relatively close to existing power distribution. Site B is adjacent to good road access but requires construction of 1-1/2 miles of power distribution line for connection to the power grid. A power line to serve site B would have other potential uses however. With an excellent wind resource and considering NSB’s goal to offset as much as possible the usage of expensive fossil fuel to generate electricity, medium or high penetration wind-diesel power configurations are the most suitable choice for Wainwright. There have been significant challenges to date though with implementing high penetration wind-diesel systems in rural Alaska due to complexity, high capital cost and operational problems. With an understanding that NSB must provide very high power system reliability, only the medium penetration configuration was modeled in this study as it represents a robust middle ground between insufficient fuel savings of the low penetration approach and the expense and considerable complexity of high penetration wind. A medium penetration approach would employ wind turbine capacity capable to approximately match peak load on windy days. In Wainwright, this would offset 20 to 50 percent of annual diesel energy production. To maintain reliability, “spinning reserve” (an on-line diesel generator operating between 10% and 100% rated output) would be maintained at all times to supplement the electrical load in anticipation of fluctuating wind conditions. During higher winds and lower electrical load, surplus wind-generated electricity would be shunted to an electric boiler to supplement thermal heat loads. Based on the average and peak electrical loads in Wainwright, only new wind turbines between 100 and 350 kW rated power were considered in this study. Market availability for turbines in this size range is very limited worldwide and more limited yet in the United States, so only the fully arctic-rated 100 kW Northern Power Systems Northwind 100 and the 225 kW Aeronautica AW29-225, both manufactured in the United States, were identified as turbines suitable for use in Wainwright. The 330 kW German Enercon E33 would be a very good alternate choice, but this turbine is not available in the American market. The NW100 and the AW29-225 both have a history of successful use in utility power systems and have established support in Alaska. Wainwright Wind-Diesel Hybrid Feasibility Study P a g e | 2 HOMER software was used to predict the performance of wind turbines if added to the existing Wainwright diesel power system with reference to load profile and operating costs reported to Alaska Energy Authority for the power cost equalization (PCE) program. Based on these simulations, economic analyses was performed to determine benefit/cost (B/C) ratios based on initial capital cost of wind turbines and related distribution and control system upgrades, O&M cost of the diesel plant and wind turbines, fuel cost and related avoided fuel usage. The economic analyses were tabulated using medium, high, and low fuel cost projections (as predicted by UAA’s Institute for Social and Economic Research) for Sites A and B with a number of different turbine configurations at each site. Even with conservative estimates of capital costs and O&M expenses over the life of the project, the medium and high fuel cost projections yield positive benefit-to-cost ratios for either turbine at both sites. Only the low cost projection fails to predict positive project benefit-to-cost ratios. Wainwright Wind-Diesel Hybrid Feasibility Study P a g e | 3 1 Introduction The North Slope Borough (NSB) contracted with WHPacific to prepare wind power feasibility studies for the villages of Wainwright, Point Lay, and Point Hope. WHPacific contracted with V3 Energy, LLC to assist with the project. This report documents the feasibility study of Wainwright; the Point Lay and Point Hope studies are contained under separate cover. Although NSB is home to vast fields of recoverable oil and natural gas, the huge size of the borough and the relative geographic concentration of these fossil fuel resources means that a number of NSB villages, including the coastal village of Wainwright, cannot tap these resources in any practical manner and instead must rely on the importation of diesel fuel for electricity generation and thermal heating. NSB desires to reduce Wainwright’s dependency on diesel fuel by developing renewable energy sources to augment the diesel generator and fuel oil boilers. Previous studies have determined that wind power has the most potential of the borough’s renewable energy resources to be economically viable and hence this study focuses only on the wind resource and wind turbines to exploit that resource. 1.1 Scope of Work This study, which was paid for with Alaska Energy Authority funds made available through the Alaska Renewable Energy Fund Program and with matching funds from the North Slope Borough, investigates and evaluates wind turbine power options in Point Hope, Point Lay, and Wainwright. The scope of work of this study includes: Select two wind turbine locations per village Perform geotechnical investigation at each site Identify land and/or regulatory issues for each site Conduct wind technology workshop with NSB Prepare conceptual design and feasibility reports An environmental study, which is essential in determining site feasibility, will be conducted under a separate contract and is not included in this report. 1.2 Village of Wainwright In 1826 the Wainwright Lagoon was named by Capt. F.W. Beechey for his officer, Lt. John Wainwright. An 1853 map indicates the name of the village as "Olrona." Its Inupiat name was "Olgoonik." The region around Wainwright was traditionally well- populated, though the present village was not established until 1904 when the Alaska Native Service built a school and instituted medical and other services. The site was reportedly chosen by the captain of the ship delivering school construction materials, because sea-ice conditions were favorable for landing. A post office was established in 1916, and a city was formed in 1962. Wainwright Wind-Diesel Hybrid Feasibility Study P a g e | 4 Coal was mined at several nearby sites for village use; the closest was about seven miles away. Today, though, most houses are heated by fuel oil. A U.S. Air Force Distance Early Warning (DEW) Station was constructed nearby in the 1960’s. A federally-recognized tribe is located in the community, the Village of Wainwright. Most Wainwright inhabitants are Inupiat Eskimos who practice a subsistence lifestyle. Their ancestors were the Utukamiut (people of the Utukok River) and Kukmiut (people of the Kuk River). According to Census 2010, there were 179 housing units in the community and 147 were occupied. Wainwright’s population of 556 people is 90 percent Alaska Native, 8 percent Caucasian, and 2 percent Hispanic, multi-racial or other. The North Slope Borough provides all utilities in Wainwright. Water is obtained from Merekruak Lake three miles northeast of the community, treated and stored in tanks. Water is hauled from this point or delivered to household tanks by truck. Hauling services are provided by the borough. The majority of homes have running water for the kitchen. Electricity is provided by North Slope Borough. There is one school located in the community, attended by 149 students. Local hospitals or health clinics include Wainwright Health Clinic. Emergency Services have coastal and air access. Emergency service is provided by 911 Telephone Service volunteers and a health aide. Auxiliary health care is provided by Wainwright Volunteer Fire Dept. (907-763-2728). Economic opportunities in Wainwright are influenced by its proximity to Barrow and the fact that it is one of the older, more established villages. Most of the year-round positions are in borough services. The sale of local Eskimo arts and crafts supplements income. Bowhead and beluga whale, seal, walrus, caribou, polar bear, birds, and fish are harvested for subsistence. The 2005-2009 American Community Survey (ACS) estimated 179 residents as employed. The public sector employed 55.3% of all workers. The local unemployment rate was 29.2%. The percentage of workers not in labor force was 29.9%. The ACS surveys established that average median household income (in 2009 inflation-adjusted dollars) was $68,750 (MOE +/-$14,285). The per capita income (in 2009 inflation-adjusted dollars) was $20,063 (MOE +/-$4,649). About 12.7% of all residents had incomes below the poverty level. Note that information regarding Wainwright is drawn from the Alaska Community Database Community Information Summaries (CIS) which can be found at http://www.dced.state.ak.us/dca/commdb/CIS.cfm. Regarding the American Community Survey information, MOE refers to margin of error. 1.3 Climate Wainwright is located on the Chukchi Sea coast, 3 miles northeast of the Kuk River estuary. The climate is arctic with temperatures ranging from -56° F in winter to 80 °F in summer. Precipitation is light, averaging only five inches of water equivalent annually. The Chukchi Sea is ice-free from mid-July through September. Wainwright Wind-Diesel Hybrid Feasibility Study P a g e | 5 1.4 Geology Geotechnical study was accomplished at Sites A and B by Golder and Associates of Anchorage. Their report of findings may be found under separate cover. 1.5 Permitting The permits that are typically required to erect wind turbines and construct supporting access roads and power distribution lines are: Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) obstruction notification State of Alaska land use, if constructing on State land Local land use, if constructing on Borough land Alaska Fish and Game fish habitat, if access road crosses stream(s) U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) wetlands, if constructing on identified wetlands; may require concurrence with: o National Historic Preservation Act o Endangered Species Act, if endangered species potentially impacted o Consideration of essential fish habitat, if access road crosses stream(s) o Migratory Bird Act, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Wainwright Wind-Diesel Hybrid Feasibility Study P a g e | 6 2 Wind Resource Assessment The wind resource measured in Wainwright is very good, with measured high wind power class 4 (good) to low wind power class 5 (excellent). In addition to strong average wind speeds and wind power density, the site experiences highly directional prevailing winds, low turbulence and calculations indicate low extreme wind speed probability. A 34 meter met tower, erected to 30 meters, was installed in June 2009 approximately 500 meters (1,600 ft.) northeast of the village of Wainwright, near the Chukchi Sea shoreline. This site is relatively near the power plant and well exposed to winter winds with no upwind obstructions. The met tower was removed in July 2010. 2.1 Met tower data synopsis Data dates June 19, 2009 to July 16, 2010 (13 months) Wind power class High 4 (good) to low 5 (excellent) Power density mean, 30 m 413 W/m 2 (QC’d data); 392 W/m2 (with synthetic data) Wind speed mean, 30 m 7.05 m/s (QC’d data); 6.96 m/s (with synthetic data) Max. 10-min wind speed average 22.2 m/s Maximum wind gust 25.8 m/s (Feb. 2010) Weibull distribution parameters k = 2.2, c = 7.97 m/s Wind shear power law exponent 0.137 (moderately low) Roughness class 1.51 (crops) IEC 61400-1, 3rd ed. classification Class III-c (lowest defined and most common) Turbulence intensity, mean 0.072 (at 15 m/s) Calm wind frequency 16% (<3.5 m/s) 2.2 Data Recovery Data recovery in Wainwright was mostly acceptable, with 75 to 80 percent data recovery of the anemometers and wind vane. Note that data recovery in December and January was particularly poor, apparently due to hoarfrost conditions during this deep cold period of mid-winter. 2.3 Wind Speed Wind data collected from the met tower, from the perspective of both mean wind speed and mean power density, indicates an excellent wind resource. The cold arctic temperatures of Wainwright contributed to the high wind power density. It is problematic, however, analyzing wind data with significant concentrated data loss, such as occurred in Wainwright during November through January, then again in March. To correct this problem, synthetic data was inserted in the data gaps to create a more realistic wind speed data profile. To be sure, long segments of synthetic data introduce uncertainty to the data set, but missing data does as well. To overcome this uncertainty, improved data collection with heated sensors would be necessary. But, considering the robust wind resource measured and noting the long-term airport AWOS data confirming the wind resource measured by the met tower, continuing a wind study with heated sensors is not truly necessary in Wainwright. Wainwright Wind-Diesel Hybrid Feasibility Study P a g e | 7 Wind speed profile 2.4 Wind Rose Wind frequency rose data indicates highly directional winds from northeast to east-northeast. Power density rose data (representing the power in the wind) indicates power winds are strongly directional, from 030°T to 070°T and to a much lesser extent from 240°T. Calm frequency (percent of time that winds at 30 meter level are less than 3.5 m/s) was 16 percent during the met tower test period. Wind frequency rose Wind energy rose 2.5 Turbulence Intensity Turbulence intensity at the Wainwright test site is well within acceptable standards with an IEC 61400-1, 3rd edition (2005) classification of turbulence category C, which is the lowest defined. Mean turbulence intensity at 15 m/s is 0.072. Wainwright Wind-Diesel Hybrid Feasibility Study P a g e | 8 Turbulence graph 2.6 Extreme Winds Although thirteen months of data is minimal for calculation of extreme wind probability, use of a modified Gumbel distribution analysis, based on monthly maximum winds vice annual maximum winds, yields reasonably good results. Extreme wind analysis indicates a highly desirable situation in Wainwright: moderately high mean wind speeds combined with low extreme wind speed probabilities. This may be explained by particular climactic aspects of Wainwright which include prominent coastal exposure, offshore wind conditions, and due to the extreme northerly latitude, lack of exposure to Gulf of Alaska storm winds. Industry standard reference of extreme wind is the 50 year, 10-minute average probable wind speed, referred to as Vref. For Wainwright, this calculates to 24.8 m/s, below the threshold of International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) 61400-1, 3rd edition criteria (of 37.5 m/s) for a Class III site. Note that Class III extreme wind classification is the lowest defined and all wind turbines are designed for this wind regime. Wainwright Wind-Diesel Hybrid Feasibility Study P a g e | 9 3 Wind Project Sites NSB requested that two wind turbine sites be identified in Wainwright. On July 6, 2011, Ross Klooster of WHPacific and Max Ahgeak of NSB Public Works Dept. traveled to Wainwright and met with Village of Wainwright and Olgoonik Corporation representatives to discuss the wind power project and to identify the two sites. This was accomplished by reviewing maps and ownership records and then driving and walking to a number of locations near the village to assess suitability for construction and operation of wind turbines. Two sites on Olgoonik Corporation land were chosen, identified as Site A and Site B in the Google Earth image below. Wainwright site options, Google Earth image 3.1 Site A Site A is a very well exposed area immediately northeast of the village and just beyond the protective snow fences on Wainwright’s north side. It is an expansive location with plenty of room for a multi- turbine array, is relatively dry and hence likely to have stable permafrost for foundation construction, and would require minimal distribution line construction to connect turbines to the power plant. Unfortunately though, an FAA notice of presumed hazard (refer to Appendix A) for the site limits turbine construction to 148 ft. above ground level. With respect to the turbines options considered in this report (refer to Section 5.2), only the Aeronautica AW 29-225 on a 30 meter tower has a sufficiently low elevation tip height to meet FAA’s height restrictions for this site. A possible alternative is the Northern Power Northwind 100B/21 on a 30 meter tower instead of the normal 37 meter tower (refer to Section 5.2). This possibility must be discussed with Northern Power Systems, however, as a 30 meter tower option may not be available for the B model NW100 as it had once been for their A model NW100. Wainwright Wind-Diesel Hybrid Feasibility Study P a g e | 10 Wainwright Site A 3.2 Site B Site B shares the same apparent physical characteristics as Site A and hence it is a quite suitable location for wind turbines. A key advantage of Site B over Site A is that construction height is essentially unrestricted from an FAA perspective (refer to Appendix B). The chief disadvantage is its increased distance from Wainwright, necessitating an additional 2.4 km (1.5 mile) distribution line construction. But, turbines could be placed very near the access road, resulting in lower access road construction costs than at Site A. Wainwright Site B Wainwright Wind-Diesel Hybrid Feasibility Study P a g e | 11 Wainwright Sites A and B comparison table Wind Turbine Site Advantages Disadvantages A Olgoonik Corp. land Turbines will be in view and possible auditory range of residents on the north side of the village Site is large enough to accommodate several or more turbines and has sufficient room for future expansion 275 to 375 meter (900 to 1,200 ft) access road and distribution line construction required (depending on access direction) Relatively dry site;likely good geotech conditions FAA determination of Notice of Presumed Hazard (NPH) for turbines exceeding 148 ft AGL B Olgoonik Corp. land 2.4 km (1.5 miles) of new distribution line required Site is large enough to accommodate several turbines and has sufficient room for future expansion More expensive to develop than Site A Location is far from village and unlikely to present aesthetic and noise complaints Relatively dry site; likely good geotech conditions FAA Determination of No Hazard to Air Navigation for turbines up to 195 ft AGL (possibly higher) Site near existing road to landfill 3.3 Other Site Options Other than Sites A and B, something in-between, or a minor variation of either, there are no other realistic wind turbine site options for Wainwright. Terrain east of the village is possible, but the airport constrains the nearer possibilities and, importantly, a road does not exist at present in that direction, hence development costs would be extremely high. Terrain to the southwest is marginal due to its peninsula nature between Wainwright Inlet and the Bering Sea. Plus, airport runway alignment precludes this consideration. West of Wainwright is the Bering Sea and hence obviously unsuitable for turbine construction. Wainwright Wind-Diesel Hybrid Feasibility Study P a g e | 12 4 Wind-Diesel System Design and Equipment Wind-diesel power systems are categorized based on their average penetration levels, or the overall proportion of wind-generated electricity compared to the total amount of electrical energy generated. Commonly used categories of wind-diesel penetration levels are low penetration, medium penetration, and high penetration, as summarized below. The wind penetration level is roughly equivalent to the amount of diesel fuel displaced by wind power. Note however that the higher the level of wind penetration, the more complex and expensive a control system and demand-management strategy is required. Categories of wind-diesel penetration levels Penetration PenetrationLevel Operating characteristics and system requirements Instantaneous Average Low 0% to 50% Less than 20% Diesel generator(s) run full time at greater than minimum loading level. Requires minimal changes to existing diesel control system. All wind energy generated supplies the village electric load; wind turbines function as “negative load” with respect to diesel generator governor response. Medium 0%to 100+%20%to 50% Diesel generator(s)run full time at greater than minimum loading level. Requirescontrol system capable of automatic generator start, stop and paralleling. To control system frequency during periods of high wind power input, system requires fast acting secondary load controller matched to a secondary load such as an electric boiler augmenting a generator heat recovery loop. At high wind power levels, secondary (thermal) loads are dispatched to absorb energy not used by the primary (electric) load. Without secondary loads, wind turbines must be curtailed to control frequency. High (Diesels-off Capable) 0% to 150+% Greater than 50% Diesel generator(s) can be turned off during periods of high wind power levels. Requires sophisticated new control system, significant wind turbine capacity, secondary (thermal)load,energy storage such as batteries or a flywheel, and possibly additional components such as demand- manageddevices. Choosing the ideal wind penetration for Wainwright depends on a number of factors, including load profile of the community, wind resource, construction cost and challenges, fuel price and also technical capability and experience of the utility with wind power and energy storage systems. There is no one “right” answer and the most optimal wind-diesel system for Wainwright may not be the one that displaces the most fuel, nor even one that has the highest estimated benefit-to-cost ratio. It is presumed for the purposes of this feasibility study that North Slope Borough’s interest will be with a medium penetration option as that provides significant enough fuel savings to justify the high construction costs of a wind turbine project yet avoids the significant design complexity and operational challenges of high penetration. Wainwright Wind-Diesel Hybrid Feasibility Study P a g e | 13 4.1 Wind-diesel Integration Controls Medium to high-penetration wind-diesel systems require fast-acting real and reactive power management to compensate for rapid variation in village load and wind turbine power output. A wind- diesel system master controller, typically referred to as a supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) system, is installed to select theoptimum system component configuration based on village load demand and available wind power. Regardless of the supplier, a SCADA system is capable of controlling individual components and allowing those components to communicate status to the system. A typical SCADA will consist of the following: Station Controller: schedules and dispatches diesel generators, wind turbines and other components units, performs remote control functions, and stores collected component and system data Generation Controller: monitors and controls individual diesel generators Wind Turbine Controller: monitors and controls individual wind turbine and dispatches wind turbines Feeder Monitor: monitors vital statistics of an individual distribution feeder, including ground fault information Demand Controller: monitors, controls, and schedules demand-managed devices 4.2 Energy Storage Options Although high penetration wind power is not proposed in this feasibility study, as reference for future development, electrical energy storage provides a means of storing wind generated power during periods of high winds and releasing that power to the electrical distribution system as winds subside. 4.2.1 Batteries Batteries are most appropriate for providing medium-term energy storage to allow a transition, or bridge, between the variable output of wind turbines, and diesel generation. This bridging period is typically between five and fifteen minutes. Storage for several hours or days is also possible with batteries, but requires more capacity and higher cost. In general, the disadvantages of batteries for energy storage, even for a small utility system, are high capital and maintenance costs and limited lifetime. Of particular concern to rural Alaska communities is that batteries are heavy and expensive to transport to the site, and many contain toxic material that requires disposal as hazardous waste at the end of a battery’s useful life. Because batteries operate on direct current (DC), a converter is required when connected to an alternating current (AC) system. A typical battery storage system includes a bank of batteries and a power conversion device. Recent advances in power electronics have made solid state converter (inverter/rectifier) systems cost effective and hence the preferred power conversion device. Despite some drawbacks, electric power storage with batteries is a proven technology, but it has seen limited use in rural Alaska wind-diesel projects to date. Wales is equipped with a high penetration wind system with battery storage that is functional, but its operational history has been very disappointing and given the design age, it is not considered a reproducible system. Kokhanok has a recently-installed Wainwright Wind-Diesel Hybrid Feasibility Study P a g e | 14 high-penetration wind-diesel system with lead-acid type battery storage, designed and constructed by Marsh Creek LLC of Anchorage, although it is not yet operational. Of interest is a 250 kW flow battery that Kotzebue Electric Association plans to install in 2012 in Kotzebue to support their planned installation of two 900 kW EWT wind turbines. 4.2.2 PowerStore Flywheel Built by Powercorp Pty of Darwin, Australia, the PowerStore is a very fast-acting energy source and sink system based on a modern flywheel and bi-directional converter. During normal operation, energy is supplied to the PowerStore as a steady 12 kW load to maintain rotational energy. When necessary to control power system frequency, energy is delivered to or drawn from the flywheel. The PowerStore can absorb or deliver 300 or 1000 kW (depending on the inverter) of power in 5 milliseconds. The PowerStore has been used in rural wind-diesel and mining applications in a number of locations worldwide, including Antarctica and remote regions of Australia. Wainwright Wind-Diesel Hybrid Feasibility Study P a g e | 15 5 Wind Turbines and HOMER Modeling Considering NSB’s goal of displacing as much diesel fuel for electrical generation as possible and yet recognizing the present limitations of high penetration wind power in Alaska and NSB’s desire to operate a highly stable and reliable electrical utility in Wainwright, only the medium penetration wind- diesel configuration scenario was modeled with HOMER software. Note that low penetration wind was not modeled as this would involve use of smaller farm-scale turbines that are not designed for severe cold climates, and low penetration would not meet NSB’s goal of significantly displacing fuel usage in Wainwright. As previously noted, a medium penetration wind-diesel configuration is a compromise between the simplicity of a low penetration wind power and the significant complexity and sophistication of the high penetration wind. With medium penetration, instantaneous wind input is sufficiently high (at 100 plus percent of the village electrical load) to require a secondary or diversion load to absorb excess wind power, or alternatively, to require curtailment of wind turbine output during periods of high wind/low electric loads. For Wainwright, appropriate wind turbines for medium wind penetration are generally in the 100 to 300 kW range with more numbers of turbines required for lower output machines compared to larger output models. There are a number of comparative medium penetration village wind-diesel power systems presently in operation in Alaska. These include the AVEC villages of Toksook Bay, Chevak, Savoonga, Kasigluk, Hooper Bay, among others. All are characterized by wind turbines directly connected to the AC distribution system. AC bus frequency control during periods of high wind penetration, when diesel governor control would be insufficient, is managed by the sub-cycle, high resolution, and fast-switching capability of the secondary load controller (SLC). Ideally, the SLC is connected to an electric boiler serving a thermal load as this will enhance overall system efficiency by augmenting the operation of the fuel oil boiler(s) serving the thermal load. 5.1 Diesel Power Plant Electric power (comprised of the diesel power plant and the electric power distribution system) in Wainwright is provided by North Slope Borough Public Works Department, the utility for all communities on the North Slope, with the exception of Deadhorse and Barrow. The existing power plant in Wainwright consists of three Caterpillar 3508 diesel generators rated at 430 kW output, and two Caterpillar 3512 diesel generator rated at 950 kW output. Wainwright powerplant diesel generators Generator Electrical Capacity Diesel Engine Model 1 430 kW Caterpillar 3508 2 430 kW Caterpillar 3508 3 430 kW Caterpillar 3508 4 950 kW Caterpillar 3512 5 950 kW Caterpillar 3512 Wainwright Wind-Diesel Hybrid Feasibility Study P a g e | 16 Generator sets in the Wainwright power plant are controlled by Woodward 2301A load sharing and speed control governors with protection and alarms initiated by discreet protective relays for each unit. A user-programmable PLC controller with SCADA interface automatically parallels and dispatches the diesel generators, based on system load and operator-programmable preferences, via a unit-based auto synchronizer. 5.2 Wind Turbines For this study, the wind turbines considered are restricted to rated outputs of 100 to 350 kW as this size range well matches Wainwright’s electric load. This eliminates the battery-charging turbines and small grid-connect home and farm-scale turbines that are insufficient for village power needs and the very large utility-scale turbines that would overwhelm the Wainwright power system. Unfortunately though, the world wind turbine market offers very few turbines in this mid or village-scale size range. Of new turbines, two American-made options are the 100 kW Northwind 100 and the 225 kW Aeronautica 29- 225. The 330 kW German-made Enercon E33 would be an excellent option, but it remains unavailable to the U.S. market due to a past patent dispute between Enercon and General Electric. Remanufactured wind turbines are a possible option for NSB to consider, with the 225 kW Danish-made Vestas V27 available through Halus Power Systems of San Leandro, California. Whether new or remanufactured, the primary criteria for wind turbines suitable for Wainwright are: Alternating current (AC) generator; synchronous or asynchronous are acceptable Cold-climate capable (rated to -40° C) with appropriate use of materials, lubricants and heaters IEC Class II rated A “known” turbine with an existing track record of installed operation Suitable for marine environments Established North American support capability, preferably with an Alaska presence 5.2.1 Northern Power Systems Northwind 100 The Northwind 100 (the NW100B/21 model) wind turbine is manufactured by Northern Power Systems in Barre, Vermont. The NW100 turbine is stall-regulated, has a direct-drive permanent magnet synchronous generator, active yaw control, a 21 meter diameter rotor, is rated at 100 kW power output, and is available only on a 37 meter tubular steel tower. The NW100B/21 is fully arctic-climate certified to -40° C and is the most represented village-scale wind turbine in Alaska at present with a significant number of installations in the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta and on St. Lawrence Island. More information can be found at: http://www.northernpower.com/and in Appendix C of this report. Wainwright Wind-Diesel Hybrid Feasibility Study P a g e | 17 NW100 wind turbine NW100B/21 power curve 5.2.2 Aeronautica AW29-225 The Aeronautica AW29-225 wind turbine is manufactured new by Aeronautica in Durham, New Hampshire. This turbine was originally designed by the Danish-manufacturer Norwin in the 1980’s and had a long and successful history in the wind industry before being replaced by larger capacity turbines for utility-scale grid-connect installations. The AW29-225 turbine is stall-regulated, has a synchronous (induction) generator, active yaw control, a 29 meter diameter rotor, is rated at 225 kW power output, and is available with 30, 40, or 50 meter tubular steel towers. The AW29-225 is fully arctic-climate certified to -40° C and is new to the Alaska market with no in-state installations at present. More information can be found at http://aeronauticawind.com/aw/index.html and in Appendix D of this report. Aeronautica AW29-225 AW29-225 power curve Wainwright Wind-Diesel Hybrid Feasibility Study P a g e | 18 5.2.3 Wind Turbine Performance Comparison In the table below is an analysis of turbine output and capacity factor performance of the turbines profiled above, with comparisons of manufacturer rated output power at 100%, 90% and 80% turbine availability (percent of time that the turbine is on-line and available for energy production). Both the NW100B/21 and the AW29-225 perform very well in the Wainwright wind regime with excellent capacity factors and annual energy production. Wainwright turbine capacity factor comparison 100% availability 90% availability 80% availability Turbine Model Rated Outpu t (kW) Hub Height (m) Tip Height (m)* Tip Height (ft.)* Annual Energy (MWh) Capacit y Factor (%) Annual Energy (MWh) Capacit y Factor (%) Annual Energy (MWh) Capacit y Factor (%) NW100B/21 100 37 47.5 156 308.6 34.2 277.7 30.8 246.9 27.4 AW29-225 225 30 44.5 146 598.8 30.4 538.9 27.4 479.0 24.3 225 40 54.5 179 649.0 32.9 584.1 29.6 519.2 26.3 225 50 64.5 212 689.2 35.0 620.3 31.5 551.4 28.0 *Note: assumes base of turbine tower at ground level 5.3 Modeling Wind turbine and system performance modeling of wind-diesel configurations in Wainwright was accomplished with HOMER software. This software enables static modeling of a power system to demonstrate energy balances and fuel displacement with introduction of wind power. A limitation of the software is that it is not suitable for dynamic modeling. In other words, it cannot model voltage and frequency perturbations and power system dynamics, although it will provide a warning for systems that are potentially unstable. 5.3.1 Electric Load The Wainwright electric load was synthesized with the Alaska Electric Load Calculator Excel program written in 2006 by Mia Devine of the Alaska Energy Authority. This spreadsheet allows one to create a “virtual” village load in one hour increments, suitable for import into HOMER software. For this feasibility study, 2010 PCE data of reported gross kWh generated, average power, fuel usage, and powerplant efficiency was used with the Alaska Load Calculator to synthesize a 681 kW average load with a 1,111 kW peak loadand approximately 380 kW minimum load. Graphical representations of the electric load are shown below. Wainwright Wind-Diesel Hybrid Feasibility Study P a g e | 19 5.3.2 Thermal Load The thermal load available to the diesel generator heat recovery system was estimated based on better- documented thermal loads in other villages, the size of Wainwright’s electrical load, and village meter log information. Typically very difficult to quantify as accurately as the electric load, the thermal load serves as an energy “dump” in medium and high penetration wind-diesel configurations, or, more precisely, as the secondary load available to absorb excess electrical energy generated by wind turbines during periods of relatively high wind turbine output and low electric load demand. 5.4 Diesel Generators The HOMER model was constructed with all five Wainwright generators, although clearly there is redundant capacity in the system. For cost modeling purposes, AEA assumes a generator O&M cost of $0.020/kWh. This was converted to $13.60/operating hour for each diesel generator for use in the HOMER software model (based on Wainwright’s modeled average electrical load of 681 kW). Manufacturer fuel curves for the diesel generators, provided by David Lockard of AEA in an Excel file entitled Cat C9M C18M 3508 3512 3456 Mar 20081, were used in the HOMER models. In addition, the diesel engines in the modeling runs were set to “optimize”, which HOMER interprets as use of the most efficient diesel generator whenever possible. Wainwright Wind-Diesel Hybrid Feasibility Study P a g e | 20 Diesel generator HOMER modeling information Diesel generator Caterpillar 3508 Caterpillar 3508 Caterpillar 3508 Caterpillar 3512 Caterpillar 3512 HOMER model identification Cat 1 Cat 2 Cat 3 Cat 4 Cat 5 Power output (kW)430 430 430 950 950 Intercept coeff. (L/hr/kW rated) 0.02368 0.02368 0.02368 0.01937 0.01937 Slope (L/hr/kW output) 0.2377 0.2377 0.2377 0.2325 0.2325 Minimum electric load (%) 12% (50 kW) 12% (50 kW) 12% (50 kW) 10 10 Heat recovery ratio (% of waste heat that can serve the thermal load) 18 18 18 18 18 Intercept coefficient – the no-load fuel consumption of the generator divided by its capacity Slope – the marginal fuel consumption of the generator Caterpillar 3508C fuel efficiency curve Caterpillar 3512 fuel efficiency curve Wainwright Wind-Diesel Hybrid Feasibility Study P a g e | 21 6 Economic Analysis Selected wind turbines in medium penetration mode are modeled in this report to demonstrate the economic viability of various configurations and fuel price points. 6.1 Wind Turbine Costs Capital and installation costs of wind turbines are somewhat difficult to estimate without detailed consideration of shipping fees, foundation design, cost efficiencies with installation of multiple turbines, identification of constructor, mobilization fees, etc. Although the cost assumptions detailed below should be considered tentative, they are generally in-line with other rural Alaska wind projects of the past few years. Note that for modeling purposes, an AW29-225 on a 30 meter tower is assumed to cost 1.5 percent less than noted below. Wind turbine cost assumptions Single Turbine 450-500 kW installed turbine capacity NW100B (100 kW) AW29-225 (225 kW) NW100B (100 kW) AW29-225 (225 kW) Total turbine output (kW) 100 225 500 450 No. of turbines 1 1 5 2 Price/turbine $348,000 $580,000 $348,000 $580,000 Engineering, VAR support n/a $35,000 n/a $35,000 Capacitors cost/turb, VAR support n/a $40,000 n/a $80,000 Turbine cost $348,000 $655,000 $1,740,000 $1,355,000 Turbine capital cost/kW $3,480 $2,756 $3,480 $2,933 Construction cost (estimated) $696,000 $1,160,000 $2,923,200 $2,088,000 Total installed cost $1,047,480 $1,817,756 $4,666,680 $3,445,933 Total installed cost/kW $10,475 $8,079 $9,333 $7,658 Note: AW29-225 price with 40 meter tower 6.2 Fuel Cost A fuel price of $5.85/gallon ($1.55/Liter) was chosen for the initial HOMER analysis by reference to Alaska Fuel Price Projections 2011-2035, prepared for Alaska Energy Authority by the Institute for Social and Economic Research (ISER), dated July 7, 2011. The $5.85/gallon price reflects the average value of all fuel prices between the 2013 (assumed project start year) fuel price of $4.80/gallon and the 2032 (20 year project end year) fuel price of $6.64/gallon using the medium price projection three-year moving average (MA3) analysis. Additional analyses with ISER’s low price projection MA3 and high price projection MA3 are included in the economic analysis of this report. For the high price projection, the median 2013 to 2032 three-year moving average price is $9.06/gallon ($2.39/Liter). For the low price projection, the average 2013 to 2032 three-year moving average price is $2.97/gallon ($0.79/Liter). Note also that heating fuel in HOMER is priced the same as diesel fuel. Wainwright Wind-Diesel Hybrid Feasibility Study P a g e | 22 Fuel cost table Cost Scenario 2013 (/gal) 2032 (/gal) Average (/gallon) Average (/Liter) Medium $4.80 $6.64 $5.85 $1.549 High $5.95 $10.61 $9.06 $2.397 Low $3.84 $2.71 $2.97 $0.785 ISER, MA3 cost projections 6.3 HOMER Modeling Assumptions In the HOMER modeling simulations, the annual average wind speed was reduced to 6.30 m/s (from a measured 6.96 m/s) to yield an approximate turbine availability of 82 percent. This is in-line with AEA assumptions of turbine availability in their economic models. HOMER modeling assumptions are listed in the table below. Basic modeling assumptions Economic Assumptions Project life 20 years Discount rate 3% System fixed O&M cost $534,000/year (2010 PCE Report) Operating Reserves Load in current time step 10% Wind power output 50% Fuel Properties (both types) Heating value 42.5 MJ/kg Density 820 kg/m3 Diesel Generators Generator capital cost $0 (already exist) O&M cost $13.60/hour ($0.02/kWh) Time between overhauls 20,000 hours Overhaul cost (Cat 3508)$75,000 Overhaul cost (Cat 3512) $100,000 Minimum load ratio 10%or 50 kW; based on AVEC’s operational experience of 50 kW minimum diesel loading with their wind-diesel systems Schedule Optimized Wind Turbines Availability 82% Scaled annual average wind speed 6.30 m/s (6.96 m/s non-scaled, from met tower data) O&M cost $0.0469/kWh (translated to $/year based on 26% turbine CF) NW100B/21 $10,700/yr/turbine AW 29-225 $24,000/yr/turbine Wainwright Wind-Diesel Hybrid Feasibility Study P a g e | 23 6.4 Wind Power Scenario Cost Assumptions The base or comparison scenario, which does not include wind turbines, is the existing Wainwright powerplant with its present configuration of diesel generators. Wind turbines in a medium penetration system configuration may be constructed at Site A or Site B. Development costs between the sites will be different because of varying distances of access roads and new power distribution lines. For both sites, $150,000 is assumed both for SCADA improvements to accommodate the inclusion of wind power into the existing diesel power plant operating system and a secondary load controller and electric boiler to allow excess wind turbine power to serve the thermal load. Additionally for both sites, $50,000 is assumed for basic permitting and project management. As noted in the table below, these fixed costs plus the varying road access and power distribution extension development costs for each site result in total development costs of $425,000 for Site A and $848,000 for Site B. Typically, geotechnical studies are also included as part of the site development process to support the design of turbine foundations, but these efforts have already been accomplished. Wind project cost assumptions Base Site A Site B SCADA upgrade, SLC, boiler $150,000 $150,000 $100,000 $608,000 Road extension $125,000 $40,000 Permitting $50,000 $50,000 $0 $425,000 $848,000 Distribution distance (miles) 0.25 1.52 Road distance (miles) 0.25 0.08 Notes: Distribution line, $400K/mi Road, $500K/mi Wainwright Wind-Diesel Hybrid Feasibility Study P a g e | 32 7 Conclusion and Recommendations The prospect of wind power in Wainwright is excellent due to the relatively high average wind speed, high wind power density, highly directional winds, and lack of extreme wind events. In anticipation of medium to high fuel price projections over a 20-year project period and even with the conservative nature of the cost and performance assumptions, the economic analyses contained in this report show positive benefit-to-cost ratios for incorporation of wind power into the Wainwright power system. It is highly recommended and strongly urged that NSB pursue a conceptual design for a wind-diesel power system for Wainwright. Although the prospects of a high penetration wind-diesel system, based on present experience in Alaska with current technology, do not seem favorable at this time, upgrade to high penetration will be a strong consideration in the near future and is the natural evolution of the recommended medium penetration configuration option modeled in this study. Wainwright Wind-Diesel Hybrid Feasibility Study P a g e | 33 Appendix A: Notice of Presumed Hazard, Site A Wainwright Wind-Diesel Hybrid Feasibility Study P a g e | 34 Appendix B: Determination of No Hazard, Site B Wainwright Wind-Diesel Hybrid Feasibility Study P a g e | 35 Appendix C: Northwind 100 Wind Turbine Wainwright Wind-Diesel Hybrid Feasibility Study P a g e | 36 Appendix D: Aeronautica AW29-225 Wind Turbine