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HomeMy WebLinkAboutTerror Lake Capacity Design Project Evaluation of Third Unit Installation - Jun 1983 - REF Grant 2195460, t EBASCO SERVICES 1NCORPORATEO 4001121h Avenue NE, eeRevue. WA9Wa4. {208)451-a5(0 June 21, 1983 6793-EA-202 S,, CAI & OWE Mr. John Longacre Alaska Power Authority 334 West Fifth Avenue Anchorage, Alaska 99501 Dear Mr. Longacre: SUBJECT; TERROR LAKE HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT EVALUATION OF THIRD UNIT INSTALLATION The enclosed is our report on the evaluation of the third unit installation of the subject project. Our study on KEA power system requirements, generation capability of Terror Lake power plant and cost of third unit concludes with the following recommendation: The third unit should be installed in the powerhouse in the future depending on the development of KEA power system requirements as it was foreseen in the present FERC license. Two reasons for this recommendation are: 1) KEA power system will not need the additional power and generation of the Terror Lake third unit until 1995 or after, based on review of the load forecast available and actual demand in the last three years. 2) Although it will be cost effective to install the third unit during the present stage of the construction, the cost differential of installing it now and in the future, in 1995, is not estimated to be large enough to warrant making the relevant investment at this time. _2_ June 21, 1983 Mr. John Longacre 6793-EA-202 TERROR LAKE }HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT EVALUATION OF THIRD UNIT INSTALLATION If our above recommendation is accepted it will not be necessary for APA to exercise the options in the owner -Furnished Equipment Contracts to purchase the third unit components. Please let me know if you require further explanation on this subject - Very truly yours, EBASCO S RVICE5 _INCORPORATED Erik Bodholt Project Manager EB.KD:IP Attachments cc: D, Lodmell ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY TERROR LAKE HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT FERC PROJECT 2743 AN EVALUATION OF IN5TAL.LA7I0N OF THE THIRD UNIT EBASCO SERVICES INCORPORATED JUNE 1983 TERROR LAKE HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT EVALUATION OF THE THIRD UNIT INSTALLATION Terror Lake Hydroelectric Project (TLHEP) was planned to be developed in stages with the possibility of increasing the capability of its power plant as the demand for electricity may increase in the Kodiak Electric Association (KEA) Power System over the years. The first stage of the development which is under construction at present has two 10 MW name -plate capacity generating units in the powerhouse with a space for a 10 MN capacity third unit for future installation. In the present Owner -Furnished equipment contracts, Alaska Power Authority (AAA) has the option to purchase the components of the third unit with the prices and terms already quoted. The construction of the powerhouse has just started at the project site. APA still can exercise its purchase options for third unit components and instruct the present General Construction Contractor by a change order to install the third unit in the powerhouse along with the other two units. In this brief study generation and peak load requirements of KEA Power System were reviewed on the basis of several past load forecasts made by others by taking into consideration actual load figures available for 1980, 1981, 1982, and 1983 in KEA records. When the construction of two transmission lines (one with 138 kV from TLHEP switchyard to KEA Airport substation in Kodiak and another one with 14.4/24.9 kV from the TLHEP switchyard to Port Lions) are completed, KEA will have an interconnected power network. At present time the negotiations are also underway with the U.S. Coast Guard 1 station tv p resume robability al full sery]. diesel gene so exists that e by Y,EA to this ty available in t eg plant. Thus EA �f11 operate °Sency in 79g4 it to TerrOrity °fKodiak KEA Will ha ye the U,S. Coast The s interconnected yster'. fleet ,the e1 �Lions, t and U, Sthree . oast rapl ants To fore energy re and in System a t the energy a 4uirements of corn and Power available an Aarispn was mad requjr, men 1983 d the actual a between three is of the future K and Attachment I ill records oP AreVfous for Us ecasts A power Three. the loadFpr@Cdgtt d this co', fr 'he years 19chm8p, 19 on. 87, FollOwinS is a eve)°ped for the eval a n oll o t sows d system, incl f Unit sL" ry of the requirements uding greater Kodiak s poht �$ orecast for the# and U, S. Coast �+a power rd Keg pDh'eR srSr ifNCtU11ING Sy -qEsralloRFl�iERrS Yea r SSgs 1 Energy T990Wh 1.99085 peak toad 2000 l 1 s, 0oa'000 1 7 Tzs 13 ese Power Sener on ►66-00,3,000 z5.000 '384 r voir ati 284 operationcapabrl hies of 30.474 rhe anal reservoir pperat studies wi th certa t)gpw s re`alcul4ted by Ysis ion ApAlicatioor the Definite p Power studies inflow r=fiord, Internationalro�ect Report and re based on the for the s were r Engineer the F'ERC opera the Terrprtudy. In additi wed and found Company, tlatRd fcense RI ver, a corlr ke °ut1 A t and th based on the fe dPproPria to rye- the espond1,7 recur a Sage further oW reCvrds at d adequate d °f required releasesdowns t fr m n h e ergeor ear 2 -'error Lake i E Dam for instream flows was developed. The releases were based on the instream flow requirements required under the FERC License issued for the project and as such were somewhat different than those used in previous analyses. ,f The project operation was evaluated based on the hydrologic records developed, including reservoir inflows and instream flow releases. The minimum reservoir drawdown elevation assumed was E1 1250 msl along with an overall generation efficiency of 86%. Based on the overall efficiency, the generation corresponds to the energy available for transmission at the high voltage side of the transformer but does not i nc1 ude any transmission line losses. Head losses were based on previously developed tunnel head loss coefficients in addition to losses that will occur in the penstock. In order to accurately assess the project operation, a review and evaluation were made of the turbines and generator characteristics. The assumed characteristics used in previous studies were based on a 20 MW name -plate capacity and were found to be considerably different than the characteristics Of the equipment that will be installed in the powerhouse based on bid documents. This must be emphasized, as the 20 MW figure was previously used as an operation limit in contrast to the actual limit which will be in excess of 25 MW for the two unit powerhouse. This includes the 15% continuous load capability above rattd4oad. Corresponding maximum flows for generation were determined to be about 276 cfs for a 2 unit powerhouse and 414 cfs for a 3 unit powerhouse. These figures are approximate and were used in the reservoir operation studies. In determining the firm and average annual generation for the project a trial and error method was used in evaluating the period of record from 1961 to 1977. A required level of generation of demand was assumed for i each month with the resulting maximum drawdown being determined for the period of record. Because of the relatively small differences in EI seasonal demand, it was assumed that each month had the same generation I 3 i irequirement. From the studies it was found that a generation level of 11,500 MWh per month can be sustained on a continuous basis with I drawdowns not exceeding the El 1250 msl limit. The corresponding firm !, energy is then 138,000 MWh or an equivalent continuous power output level of 15,750 M Because the firm energy is depending on water availability, it is the same for the 2 unit powerhouse as for the ` unit powerhouse. The average annual energy for the 2 unit powerhouse was found to be 146.900 MWh and about 151,800 MWh for a 3 unit powerhouse. The energy generation increase of about 3% is attributed to the capability of the 3 unit powerhouse to utilize some additional flows that would otherwise be spilled. With the 2 unit plant it was found that spill would be minimal, as indicated by only a 3% increase ! in average annual energy for a 3 unit plant, and would be occasionally available during the months of June through September. Attachment 3 includes the computer print-outs of reservoir operation studies with two units and three units installed. Following is a summary of kWh generations: TLHEP ANNUAL GENERATING CAPABILITY Terror Lake HEP KWH Generation per Year irm j Power Plant eira "e _.. With two units 146,915,000 138,200,000 With three units 151,859,004 138,204,000 jAs it is calculated in this study, the fi rm electric generation capability of TLHEP with two units is higher than the KEA power system energy requirements until 1995. Therefore, it can be concluded that the third unit will not be needed for additional generation until 1995. �} The load carrying capacity of the units of the TLHEP powerhouse will be 4 as follows: 1 4 TLHEP POWER PLANT CAPABILITY Capacity in kW Max mum Ue ep ndabl e With two units 26,000 22,000 With three units 39,000 30.000 The maximum capacity represents the total maximum output of the units under defined conditions in the respective specifications. The dependable capacity is the total output of units operating with minimum head during an assumed low inflow period, It can be assumed that TLHEP will be capable of sustaining above the dependable capacities during the KEA system peak load period even under adverse hydrologic conditions foreseen. The most recent report, titled "Kodiak Island Borough Electrification Planning Assessment - Review Draft, March 1983" prepared for Alaska Power Authority by Northern Technical Services, indicates that diesel generating units of KEA in Kodiak and Port Lions and U.S. Coast Guard will be retained for backup after TLHEP goes into operation. On the basis of this planning the following is a list of units that will be available in the KEA system to meet the peak loads, including the U.S. Coast Guard Station: KEA INTERCONNECTED POWER SYSTEM (1985) Ca acit in kW UepFe a e nstal l ed 1. KEA Kodiak Power Plane 20,110 28,775 2. KEA Port Lions Power Plant 2/ 750 1,100 3, U.S. Coast Guard Power Plant` 3,750 _9,000 Subtotal 24,610 38,075 4. TLHEP, with two units 22,000 26,000 Subtotal 46,610 64,875 5. TLHEP, addition with third unit 8,000 13,000 Total 54,610 77,875 5 I 1 !� Ref. Kodiak island Borough Electrification Planning Assessment - Review Draft - Northern Technical Services, March 1983. ?� Dependable capacity is based on one 350 kW unit out of service. 3/ Ref. Al asks El ectric Power Statistics, 1960-1981, U. S. D.O. E. , Dependable capacity excludes steam -generating units plus one diesel unit. Dependable capacity of power plants available in KEA power system can be compared with estimated system peak loads as follows (TLHEP with two units): KEA INTERCOHNNECTED POWER SYSTEM System System Peak Dependable Spare Load Capacity Plant Years kW k}L margin 1985 17,726 47,610 163% 1990 21 ,202 47,610 120% 1995 25,384 47,610 84% Because of limited time for this study no investigation was made to designate which of the diesel generators may be retired in the future. The units included in dependable cappacity will pot have aged until the completion of TLHEP. When TLHEP in operation, the use of diesel units will be minimal. This should eliminate the probability of retirement of any diesel generating unit in foreseeable future. Considering the relatively high ratio of spare plant margins expected above for the period up to 1995, 1t is concluded that the third unit in TLHEP powerhouse will not be needed to meet the peak load demand of KEA power system until 1995 or later. It can be concluded that the third unit of TLHEP will not be needed for energy generation or power demand until after 1995 on the basis of the KEA power system load forecast conceived herein. 6 I At though the above studies did not indicate that the third unit is needed at this stage, further work was carried out to compare the E investment costs of its installation for two alternative cases as explained below. Alternative (a) exercising the options in the Owner -Furnished equipment i contracts and using the services of Kiewit/Groves, by a change order, to install the third unit in the powerhouse along with two other units; Alternative W not exercising the options in the owner -Furnished equipment contracts and leaving the installation of the third unit to a future date. Because of known particulars of the remote location of TLHEP without access road to the city of Kodiak or Port Lions, the -cost of the third unit installation will obviously be relatively higher at any year in the future than in the present construction stage. To facilitate the evaluation of the cost differential the costs of the two alternatives were estimated on the basis of 1983 prices and conditions as a first step and then the effect of time on cost was brought into the study to arrive at a conclusion. Attachment a gives the details of estimated costs of the two alternatives and explains the basis for the figures. Following is a comparative summary of costs of installing the third unit at the present stage and in the future (all cost figures are based on 1983 price levels and conditions, as explained above): 7 i TERROR LAKE HEP Estimated Costs Alternative (a) Alternative (b) Install Third Install Third Unit Now Unit in Future 1. Equipment $1,626,725 $1,934,500 2. Installation 931.500 1,181,500 3. Engineering and Administration 100,000 200,000 i 4. Contingency 265,827 663,200 Total $2,924,092 $3,979,200 i Cost Differential between (b) and (a) $1,055,108 E To assess economic comparison of costs of Unit 3 in the two i alternatives APA 'Analysis Parameters" for the 1983 fiscal year were used. Since the purpose of this study is to determine the timing of the third unit, the evaluated cost differential is the key factor. Even if it is installed at this stage, this would be done solely to save extra future costs because KEA power system would not require the third unit. Therefore, the benefit would be limited to saving of the extra cost. The benefit from the sale of energy of the third unit would be zero until after 1995. APA Analysis Parameters suggest 12.0% for the cost of debt and 7.0% for inflation rate. It was assumed that Alternative (a) would be financed with borrowed money at 12.0% yearly cost. On the other hand the cost of Alternative (b) would increase 7.0% per year inflation ratio. 5% difference in these two ratios is the factor controlling the cost differential to be evaluated. If Alternative (a) is applied, an initial cost differential of $1,056,106 would be saved, but a 12.0% cost of debt per year would be paid without any other benefit until 1995. If Alternative (b) is applied, the cost of installation would increase 7.0% per year. 8 Following are the increases of the costs on the basis of above rates over the years. � COS S l Alternative (a) Alternative (b) The Cost of Debt inflation Rate is 12.0% per Year at 7.0% per Year Year �� 1983 2.924,092 3,979.200 j 1984 3,274,983 4,257,744 i 1985 3,667,981 4,555,706 1986 4,108,139 4,874.691 1987 4,601,115 5,215,919 1988 5,153,249 5.581,034 1989 5,771,639 5.971,706 { i 1990 6,464,235 6,389,725 1991 7,239,944 6,837.006 1992 8,108.737 7,315,596 1993 9,081,785 7,827,6B8 3 1994 10.171,599 8,315,626 ` 1995 11,392,190 8,961,920 i {I Cost Oifferential in 1995 2,430,270 l The calculated cost differential is $2,430,270 in favor of Alternative iI (b). Therefore, it can be concluded that installing the third unit at this stage will eventually cost approximately 2.4 million dollars more than installing it in 1995. The break even year is 1990. In other words, if KEA power system required the third unit in 1990, installing the third unit at this stage or in 1990 would have equal economic consequences on the basis of assumed parameters. The break even rate differential between the cost of debt and inflation is 3%. however, it is not likely that this differential will be less than assumed differential of 5% rate in the foreseeable future. The break even cost differential between the two alternatives is $2,129,908 on the basis of 5% rate difference between the cost of debt and inflation. 9 } 1 Conclusion C "A power system will not need additional capacity Of the third unit of TLHEP before 1995 on the ci ci snd and generation forecast developed in this study, the load o Although the initial investment for installing Unit estimeated to cost less at this stage than in Three is differential is not large the future enough to cover the cost of relevant debt until l 995, o Therefore, the recommendation to APA should be " original plan to install the third unit in to keep the { future years, dependingthe TLHEP powerhouse in m requirements." on the development of KEA i i power system o If the above recomnenda.tion is acts purchase the third unit component Under�presenttOns pwner-Furnished to the equipment contracts need not to be exercised. 10 C • FI O C N yV " ;t E aloha 1 W ' V rrV N IVYM�+. 1177c E y « uad L Y O q L V�ir KS Y=dn � n�=yyw yyy d V 9 AN,� 1` fa I U Q U y� .6 c4irN �i Yy a OOLAN , i OL lid; ' ' 11 q �1 L Y C~t eLo C OIL V w +V pNpyyVr tQ VI J Y IR yp J G Q C YA L V 4 J C Wa C JZ'id 1 fri E K n� Y ; rr``: d L C 1 M Ctrir J � y C C W u V M} 7 �Lr �7 U rt Iv �1 ..I fy, MI 44r1 w, N�pNp c�No M1r`�rt�o� F TIVn -gs OOyr r�rrr m�m gie4 NNNOaI'l = 7 M lp 40i GL 1p 1 1 r ��m r r n OIM1•IYNI'R+ @@ %GLm a2N0RN M1I.�. rO ;v .Ot V b R N JL VI a 1 l N M1NN NNNNN RN10.1IMF �'N'I-m AMM a � 1o' g env � INN.IT.'bM1° nava"om .N c a�O w lei A j I�il�6 ^ y o f lY7 a �iy� y N L W \ Off ■ V4 � 1 �y 4 N, YqO p ��N nm�f NrTN nM R�1 �uNiW�� m N �F�O�O vl wlMn �frn �o CO ■a ■a �� K fCY C N'.M IO 11�p P1n p�/m NIO OTRfA Kc �� L F L w Y } Yi� �� W� N �IP I.N'1 O�N r+l�•l�iv'IIO PIOArtN ti�m�� OIM1GT�f mm E1�� 1'INNwfY f�.• ��1 �■N1 T N Oy�� 6i6 fep K M F '!Kr �O �n {YM1M1 NMf�i bnuORpp 04 C L �,1 L 11,,�� 9 YJ ZYL� rMT ^rr rrr ^^Rp rN rV NNNNN �� U K r � V Y OpO MIti N�YR Ii1f NQfp w0 1��1 R! 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V bbGp} 1�'IMMI•l ^v L w L �` t O M Il N d $11 ag nM ftl unag NRYb -R�al v s S � ^�N NNE �� MWNNb r rr� bnmOlR errs• NFINNN Ola w � M N y IL Ii !ri M N ��� rr V pp OI E lm�`® Oi OlI fill! fi ll! p1 p�p�q Ol Ol O1 Ol 01 �pp1 p��Pp �ql by V101R Vi0 \ \ \ \ \ }• ram-- --- ----r 1. - rrrrN rl Nt Mt TI NI ATTACHMENT 3 TERROR LAKE HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT THIRD UNIT ADDITION RESERVOIR OPERATION AND POWER STUDIES CASE #1 Case d1 Assumptions: 0 2 Unit powerhouse with 0 Maximum hydraulic powerhouse ca capacity o Maximum opera tin Aacity of lib tfs 0 Minimum operating reservoir elevation of 1420 msl Aerating reservoir elevation 0f 1250 msl 0 Overall generating efficiency Of 86% o Energy demand of 11,500 MWh per month N u yr .......o...tla ...anon oa..n .tls..n..e/bb nr ltl'tae e...b ,I"""snnnfnrSB_$nnR_n �i�'enRnn�toRnS RR»n»--nii$R±nRRRRR,� •.an F. n.nw rrP FFIA I.-H b`2N-nn aG T*rtl+-t°IN.aN INPCC .\Ob n..NOy�N aVPA00pPIN.Aw +hN\n �y-iN.ON @y� �n9Afp���P 1n� *A1�pryP•llIP nOI�. �A1e„wAPfM'�h� BOA Oir�i RlAinP�YO I � IaraN\h.-n�N�l1rpep�fo MrrnV1A.�nh..-+. n_sshon�o_n..♦n. e-•mwr!.ParTsn �W;Oipri�f�iOAP`°�Ng yT�Yin'pn.n �[ri-AO •------=OUVan9 ��'°��haA���ro 11 �_ f --_�R n' ::e::::b::::i :e:n:::::: e Ptl.Pana�eb. .wle.a!n in aP:rn4.ne.ar n. etlnne�nerePe Jd w�ulee' "i9n"iS $" n>S:R:'a:n ::wRn:e6:� neninRn:�Po:nN {y fir; NMYf n* ��a;aN�T+�eN+++.� NMrrTnnwrr-.~ n-Anr+ewh\aTs a-rrrArbr�htls n�LRn9Rna".. -- n'.nn�-««;'mdiN wZi'tlrv��`h.�ni a= - � 9njeP V.anPrtlnn.\ NrNNnA VO Wir^ PIT VPlrhSZ.Onry �nn nngn"i-ri aw �i - _ gaggg =Sgg PPd. n.htlnNrn N-�a1 eP�+r�tlgb rin+nr!P�APew W3 IIIII RCaP+.FrnM'a :wn yMig�n �iaN:v°=i'1"�a�Rnn�e ns gn�n"ppZ�in N_ �IN�e♦�+RSR:n �P�RK�V*Nn i>' nw'�+ �I..�Neai Ed— R. l _ � I{rM.AVrn rnN•+ Nn+rhMnh.M+\ r-hn.ro \..wh n-rr •IM1Vn NnPa R N w� itlPeeo.b nd bun oa..aaa!Ito. tl nP Paan tltlb aeon. no o. on ee... aW �RSRnRSRRRua RRRBRS $:USSR �SSRSnnRRRRRR 8R_RRRRRRRRR 'oeab?bJm�0�;0 g_IPPPggwe.�gX�ns S Aoa`r4 on$mTx .nnw+.►►nron e �r xxroonPo. �s �r::��iwoSnisnn v�'i �iiRSi>TTa i 'Nw_.nen►amnae nnan.wnrwn_mv f s n ` ePePbPtvIt w£ b!e?eoaaoeaj !roufia.eaaeee u.aaaaePe.. ��' � eaoeaaaaPeoP Y" PaeeaOaea aA.� tiN-YG.P� 4 npo^n ��V` � 1a ap1 fl fninnOdai� NnlYYT T PY I N• __ n w w P P P h a~ H N V w a M1 N� n w^ rr } ►y;-hiiPltn ry�M1===n�nwf�Aw�H ry _ w_ N .-pp hNN n++^^ HN 1 f '` � 'lnab-PO7Vrn_ n_Nfn�wnYmnn--maa W � _ ' wa.vNr ann f+w na�r-wTnOH �n+►_nwrii Eijiai.�A�rin �w opn n�ehiew n Sn P.$r.�n Rfriale � ' _nVw VhwPP•we 1121 w__h aw w_t�. rinn ewrwF ui it measasveeP .e Pa+F oa�seeaoseaa 'evaaaaPda �+ 8�� RRS�RRRRRRSS gggggRRgRRiS i 3 aaaw��aw.baP YPS:R"8�88 N aes.=e _.Pvord.naPx TSR_^ea•,n�Sn +e n-•i�se►y�� n�m.e_annnanw a �RNMmP.a rgsR n s etle.aesoPoo� a.wPefi.eeaea� eaeeaase.oa i!: fiinioffiwae n nwnnn �� s YfOrPm-Vnn�(M1Vnp P!� N� f m■ N�. n_ NnNNr»M PwdOOs4b�.�a e`�«�Z'�3Re8ggS �4nRnSn"nRRRRn a-nnNmrane.R Soa:°w'nwn.N.�eie� nn-we�nn��a+P n P°.�M1,w�mS_wy�e n a eeemooaPaaa ra oeeciee.:fi� a PPP.P0..4P�y F wn-Moenn.d�+ Hr►. 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The cost estimate figures were developed on the basis of the assumptions as explained below: 1. Alternative (a) cost figures are mainly deduced from the bid prices, whenever available, in the existing Owner -Furnished Equipment contracts and in the General Construction Contract with Kiewit-Groves. Special situations are further explained with footnotes. 2. Alternative (b) cost figures are based on 1983 price levels and conditions. In other words, the cost estimate for Alternative (b) represents the present worth (1983 cost) of installing the third -unit by new contractos in any year after 1 the project is completed and all the present contractors move out of the site. No matter what year in which the third unit is installed, the present worth would be the same as in 1983, assuming the same design, specifications and contracts would be applied. Or, it can be said that 1983 cost figures of Alternative (b) represent the cost of a theoretical case of installing the third unit in 1983 as if the powerhouse were in operation with two units. 3. As the cost estimates for both alternatives are on the basis of 1983 price levels, no price increase provision exists in the figures. Estimated Costs (please see notes) Alternative (a) Alternative (b) Install Third Install Third Future unit Now S 1 EQUIPMENT (Delivery to Seattle) 7.1 Turbine 638,2901/ 734,0005/ 655,000 1.2 Generator 569,2001/ 150,2753/ 112,500 1.3 1.4 Main Transformer Auxiliary Electrical _ .0 004/ 200 � �23Q. D00 — Equipment Subtotal 1 1,557.765 1,797,500 J Nissho-Iwai bid prices For the third turbine and governor are $527,160 and $111,130, respectively. 3/ Mitsubishi bid prices for third generator and related equipment is $669,200. 3/ RTE/AIE bid price for the third transformer is $150,275. 2 1 / Estimated cost of third unit related auxiliary electrical equipment. There is no option in the present contract with Rumsey Electric Company for these items. Approximately 37% of the Rumsey bid price of $534,022 for two units was assumed for the additional auxiliary equipment needed for the third unit. §/ The assumption was made that in case of new bidding for the third unit, the prices would average 15% higher (for additional engineering and administration) than those in the present contracts. The average cost of the third unit in the three low bids for the present contracts was $1,7I2,313. 2. SERVICES OF INSTALLATION SUPERVISOR1� 2.1 Turbinez/ 36,500 73.0002/ 2.2 Generator 23.500 46,000 2.3 Main Transformer 9.000 18,000 2.4 Auxiliary Electrical - Equipment Subtotal 2 69,000 137,000 J Present owner -furnished equipment contracts have provisions for providing installation supervisor to Kiewit-Groves for two units. Figures for Alternative (a) are based on bid prices. The supervisor time was increased approximately 257E for the third unit. For auxiliary electrical equipment no supervisor services were foreseen. In the case of a third unit installed alone, the cost of services of installation supervisor was increased 100% to i cover extra costs. ? 3. SHIPMENT FROM SEATTLE TO PROJECT SITE 300,000 300,000 I 4. INSTALLATION 4.1 Mobilization/OemobilizationY 250,000 4.2 Turbine 85,000 85,000 4.3 Generator 124,000 124,000 4.4 Main Transformer 42,500 42,500 4.5 Auxiliary Electrical Equip. 80,000 80,000 Subtotal 4 331.500 581,500 U This expense will occur in case of Alternative (b). The installation tools and certain equipment of KEA would be available. Therefore, a figure, representing 50% of the mobilization and demobilization bid price of the 138 kV T-Line contract was used. 3 2/ Relevant bid items of Kiewit-Grives contract were used to develop these figures as A-119, A-127, A-128, A-129, A-131, A-133, and be the for both alternatives. A-137. The cost was assumed to same 5. CONCRETE Second Stage Concrete for the unit three and other materials and equipment 300.0001/ $00,000 This cost includes 150 cy concrete at $1200 per cy plus $120,000 materials. provision for reinforcing steel and other embedded I 6. ENGINEERING Engineering 14O 00l/ 20D.400!/ 1/ Estimated cost of 250 workdays that for additional engineering for the the engineering would take 500 third unit. It was assumed workdays for the third unit alone if the same design and specifications were used. Subtotal 1 through 6 2,658,265 3,316,000 7. CONTINGENCY 10% for (a), 20% for (b) 265.827 663,200 TOTAL ESTIMATED COST OF UNIT NO. 3 t S2.924.U92 $3,979,200 { Recapitulation of the estimated cost: Alternative (a) Alternative (b) Install Third Install Third Unit Now Unit in Future_ 1. EQUIPMENT (Delivery to Seattle) $1,557.765 $1.797,600 2. SERVICES OF INSTALLATION 69,000 131,000 SUPERVISOR 3. SHIPMENT FROM SEATTLE TO 300,000 3DO,OD0 PROJECT SITE 4. INSTALLATION 331,500 581,500 5. SECOND STAGE CONCRETE 300,000 300,000 200,000 6. ENGINEERING 100,000 265.827 663,200 7. CONTINGENCY TOTAL ESTIMATED COST OF THIRD UNIT $2.924,042 3 9�.79,i00 Cost Differential $1,055,108 4 IN TERROR LAKE HEP EVALUATION OF THIRD UNIT ADDITION A. Obtain Existing Studies & Information Relevant to Evaluation B. Revicw Studies & Information Obtained C. Establish Technical/Economic Criteria for Evaluation _ Electric Load Growth Forecast - Water Supply/Hydrologic Considerations _ Date Third Unit Required - Financial Criteria D, Determine Technical/Commercial Aspects (Equipment + Construction Contractor) E. Determine Schedular Effects (Equipment + Construction + Engineering) F. Cost Estimates/Summaries Equipment & Construction & Engineering G. Perform Economic Evaluation - Evaluated Cost/Benefit To: a) Purchase & install with current project, or b) Delay purchase & install at'a later date 1 . 1 H. Report Preparation 'E - Conclusions - Recommendations rERROR� EVALUATION OF THIRD UNIT RDDiTION A. Obtain Existing Studies Information Relevant to Evaluation S• Review Studies & Information Obtained C. Establish Technical/Economic �teria for Evaluation Electric Load Growth Forecast i Water Supply/}jydrologic Considerations Date third U nit Required - Financial Criteria f i D• Determine Technica7/Commercial � (Equi Aspects Ament + Construction Contractor) E• Determine Schedular Effects (Equipment + Construction + Engineering) F. Cost Estimates/Summaries Equipment b Construction & Engineering . G• Perform Economic Evaluation Evaluated Cost/Benefit To: a} Purchase & install with curregt project, or b) Delay purchase H• Report Preparation & install at a later date Conclusions RecO mendations § 0 � « � a m NT n N { 4 U � { � / ® © , j ) I / s . \ k § § u) C � •\ E cm< R _ k O . . § d / § k k 2 U, In ■ ƒ f ■ . § I k I 41 $ k ! § a w a a� z TERROR LAKE HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT EVALUATION OF THIRD UNIT ADDITION SCOPE OF WORK ESTIMATE AND SCHEDULE Enclosed, please find two (2) Copies of the following documents for the subject evaluation' a) Scope of Work b) Manday Estimate c) Schedule These documents have been prepared at your request. The object of the evaluation is to determine the cost-effectiveness of a near term installation of the third turbine - generator unit at Terror Lake, as part of the present project effort. We propose to determine the technical, economic and scheduler aspects of including the installation of the third unit with the present project effort, and to evaluate the same aspects for a separate, later installation in time to support future electric load growth. The scope of work document outlines the elements to be performed to develop the required conclusions and E recommendations. Our manday estimate is based on the scope of work outlined and on the availa- bility and applicability of data (hydrologic, electric demand forecast) from the project feasibility study. Our schedule is for a two month duration from the receipt of existing base data to the issuance of our report to APA. It is anticipated that such will permit a timely decision to be reached on this matter. Please contact us should you have any items which you wish to discuss. We will await your response before taking any action. TERROR 1 ES'T'MKTa MAMID THIRD UNIT ADDITION STUDY A. GatherExisting Studies & information 3 y 6. Review Existing Studies & Information I I C. Establish Technical/Economic Criteria for Evaluation _ Electric Generation - Requirements''.;. sb - Water Supply AVAIL.A N4- f i - Delayed Installation Date - financial Cri teria — 6iy OA � 1 D. Determine Technical/Commercial Aspects I (Equipment + Construction Contractor) i �3 E. Determine Schedular Effects (Equipment + Construction + Engineering) 4 F. Cost Estimates/Summaries ! I O ) Equipment & Construction & Engineering a G. Perform Economic Evaluation -Evaluated Cost/benefit 10 ; J To: a) Purchase & install with current project, or 4 b) Delay purchase & install at a later date t ; 10 3 H. Conclusions Report 1. Recommendations ; I ' �5 I