HomeMy WebLinkAboutTerror Lake Capacity Design Project 10-Year Load Forecast 2006-2015 - Nov 2006 - REF Grant 2195460KODIAK ELECTRIC ASSOCIATION, INC.
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PREFACE
Kodiak Electric Association, Inc. (KEA) serves approximately 3,900 members (5,800
meters) within the City of Kodiak, United States Coast Guard (U.S.C.G.) Integrated Support
Command Kodiak, and the villages of Chiniak and Port Lions. KEA maintains over 12 miles of
transmission line, approximately 190 overhead distribution miles, 130 underground miles and 3
miles of underwater cable. KEA has six substation facilities and diesel plant generation facilities
with a total generating capacity of 53.95 MW. KEA is currently responsible for the operation and
maintenance of the Terror Lake hydroelectric facilities owned by the Four Dam Pool Power
Association and purchases all available energy from Terror Lake. Diesel generation is utilized
as secondary and back-up generation for the hydroelectric project.
KEA began generation and distribution to the cooperative members in August 1942.
Since incorporation KEA's Board of Directors have diligently continued to meet the growing
energy needs of Kodiak's population and fulfill the Mission Statement: Kodiak Electric
Association is com
mitted to providing safe, reliable energy and a high level of service
# excellence to enhance the qualify of life of its members and of the community.
The last Power Requirements Study (PRS) was completed by the KEA Engineering
Department in August 2000. This study was needed to supplement a new Construction Work
Plan scheduled for submittal to the Rural Utilities Service (RUS) in 2000. In discussions with
Eric A. Marchegiani, PE Public Utility Specialist, RUS General Field Representative, it was
determined that a new Power Requirement Study (now referred to as the Load Forecast) was
needed to supplement the new 10-Year Long Range Plan, Power Generation Study,
Construction Work Plan and 10-Year Financial Forecast scheduled for submittal to RUS in
2007.
The goals for this Load Forecast are to.
1. Determine, as accurately as practicable, KEA's future requirements for energy and
demand.
2. Provide data for use in the preparation of the 2007 10-Year Long Range Plan.
I
3. Provide data for use in the preparation of a detailed 2007 Power Generation Study.
4. Provide a base of information for use in preparation of the 2007 Construction Work Plan
and RUS loan application and supporting documentation.
The project scope includes review and analysis of historical data from 1996 through
2005. The number of customers and load requirements for each rate class and the total system
energy and demand requirements are projected through year 2015.
I
I
A
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Introduction.....................................................................................................
Data.........................................................................................................................................1
Modeling................f...............................,..............................,..................................................2
ProjectedData..........................................................................................................................3
Conclusion .......4
List of Tables:
I
Table 1 — Historical Energy Use and Demands..............................................................................5
Table 2 — Projected Energy Use and Demands..............................................................................6
List of Figures:
Figure 1— Residential Consumers................................................................................................7
Figure 2 — Residential Annual Usage .......... :................................................................................. 8
Figure 3 — Commercial Consumers...............................................................................................9
Figure 4 — Commercial Annual Usage.........................................................................................10
Figure 5 — Large Power Consumers............................................................................................11
Figure 6 — Large Power Annual Usage.......................................................................................12
Figure7 — Public Lighting..........................................................................................................13
Figure8 — Own Use..................................................................................................................14
Figure9 — Annual System MWH................................................................................................. Is
Figure10 — Peak System Demand............................................................................................16
Exhibit A — Revenue Summaries from 1996 through 2005......................................................17-26
� T
INTRODUCTION
This Load Forecast presents an analysis of KEA's historical loads and forecasts for
future power requirements for each customer class. The Load Forecast assumes a normal or
average level of economic activity for the next ten years based upon the historical trend in
growth.
The following are forecasted in this report:
1. Number of residential, small commercial and large power customers
2. Annual energy use for each customer class.
3. Annual system own use.
4. Annual system energy losses.
5. Annual system energy requirements.
6. Annual system load factor.
7. Annual system coincident peak MW demand.
DATA
Historical data is readily available from audited, year end RUS Form 7's. The
I
information utilized in the forecast is broken down by customer class of service for ease of use.
The RUS Form 7 categories do not directly correspond with KEA's rate classes. The Revenue
" Summary information for historical years is attached for reference and corresponds directly to
the year end Form 7 total information. Table 1 on page 5 lists historical data for years 1996
ti through 2005.
1
MODELING
A simple regression analysis uses historical data and develops a "best fit" mathematical
equation relating dependent information to independent information. For example, in a simple
regression model, the number of residential customers (dependent variable) may be related to
time in years (independent variable). Once the mathematical equation is established,
projections of future values can be calculated.
Figures 1 through 10 show the results of this regression analysis for each customer
class of service, public lighting, own use, total energy required and system demand. For the
residential and commercial classes of service, a 5-year history was used for the projections. The
5-year history for these two classes of service provided a best fit curve and yields a slightly
higher projection for the number of future customers and kWh usage. Based upon our
interviews with the U.S.C.G. and City of Kodiak, future conditions may be slightly more
favorable than our 10 year history reflects which is also evident in our sales year to date 2006.
All other projections are based on a full 10 years of historical data.
Figure 4 — illustrates the commercial usage in 2005 reflects a 5% decline in consumption
from the commercial usage in 2004. It should be noted, that this variation in usage reflects
commercial services that transferred to the large power rate. (See Figure 6 — Large Power
Usage). KEA's large power rate is based on actual usage over 50 kW, not installed capacity
and Processors will move from one rate to another based on their specific power needs. KEA
has not experienced any loss in customer base the usage only transferred from the commercial
rate to the large power rate in 2005. The 2006 budgeted figure for commercial usage was used
for the regression analysis to achieve a best fit future projection. The 2006 year to date usage
for the commercial services shows a slight increase over the budgeted figure, indicating that our
regression analysis is accurate for future commercial usage.
2
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PROJECTED DATA
Table 2 on page 6 lists projected values for energy and demand for years 2006 through
i
2016.
KEA has historically experienced a small annual growth in the number of residential
services. The residential services also continue to show a slight increase in usage each year.
According to the U.S.C.G. an additional 50 families will be deployed to U.S.C.G. Integrated
Support Command Kodiak within the next few years. This information supports our projected
growth in residential services.
The value used for Annual MWh Generation and Purchases is the total projected sales,
own use and line loss. Figure 10 has been included for comparison of the projected annual
MWh and the total calculated from the projected sales, own use and line loss that is being
utilized in this forecast.
Percent system losses are estimated to be approximately 4% per year. The past ten
years of historical data on line losses shows a dramatic fluctuation in 2004 and 2005 line losses
recorded. This extreme variation recorded in 2004 and 2005 has mostly to do with accounting
changes. The billing department converted to cycle billing during this two year period. KEA's
billing cycles encompass two calendar periods and therefore do not correspond with the
3
i purchases and generation which are computed on a calendar month.
KEA has historically been a winter peaking system. However, based on changes within
! the fishing industry we may see more seasonal variations in load. Our first summer peak was
experienced' in August 2005 due to a very large volume of seafood landings. The 2006 year-to-
date peak demand was 24.3 MW in March 2006.
3
CONCLUSION
This Load Forecast determines KEA's future requirements for energy and demand. The
residential and commercial class customer growth closely follows an established historic trend.
The annual energy usage of the large power consumers, and subsequently the energy usage of
the entire system as a whole, is largely dependent on the fishing industry and thus more
variable.
As seafood -processing is approximately 20% of KEA's electric consumption, KEA hired
f Alaska Groundfish Data Bank in March 2006 to complete a study titled; "The Gulf of Alaska
Fishery Biomass Trends for the Years 2006 to 2010 & Future Fishery Policy Changes that may
affect the Kodiak Processing and Harvesting Sectors" to analyze the potential changes in
' fishery management policies and look at the historical fishery biomass that flow into Kodiak'
processors to help predict the electrical demands required by the seafood -processing sector
into the future.
KEA staff conducted interviews with the top kWh users within our service territory.
These interviews reveal no large scale subdivisions are anticipated within the next 10 years, nor
are any large commercial ventures planned by the local sector. All indications from the
Community are that the projections based on the historical consumption will accurately depict
KEA's future needs.
Projected values for number of customers and energy usage per rate class from this
Load Forecast will be used in the 2007 Long Range Plan, 2007 Power Generation Study, the
Construction Work Plan and the 10-year financial forecast to account for system growth.
This 10 year load forecast indicates a continual increase in peak loads (capacity) and
total sales (energy). This continual growth will cause pressure on KEA's existing capacity to
cover peak loads. It will also cause increased price and environmental pressure from the
increased utilization of diesel fuel to keep up with total sales. In the Power Generation Study,
capacity and energy solutions will both be studied in parallel to determine the best mix of
operations for KEA generation.
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