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HomeMy WebLinkAboutPoint Lay Wind-Diesel Hybrid Feasibility Study - Dec 2011 - REF Grant 7030014DRAFT Point Lay Wind-Diesel Hybrid Feasibility Study December 22, 2011 Douglas Vaught, P.E. V3 Energy, LLC Eagle River, Alaska Point Lay Wind-Diesel Hybrid Feasibility Study P a g e | i This report was prepared by V3 Energy, LLC under contract to WHPacific for a North Slope Borough project to assess the technical and economic feasibility of installing wind turbines in a wind-diesel hybrid power system design for the villages of Point Hope, Point Lay, and Wainwright, Alaska. This report addresses Point Lay. Contents Executive Summary....................................................................................................................................... 1 1 Introduction.......................................................................................................................................... 3 1.1 Scope of Work ............................................................................................................................... 3 1.2 Village of Point Lay........................................................................................................................ 3 1.3 Climate.......................................................................................................................................... 4 1.4 Geology......................................................................................................................................... 4 1.5 Permitting ..................................................................................................................................... 4 2 Wind Resource Assessment.................................................................................................................. 6 2.1 Met tower data synopsis .............................................................................................................. 6 2.2 Data Recovery............................................................................................................................... 6 2.3 Wind Speed................................................................................................................................... 6 2.4 Wind Rose..................................................................................................................................... 7 2.5 Turbulence Intensity..................................................................................................................... 7 3 Wind Project Sites................................................................................................................................. 9 3.1 Site A............................................................................................................................................. 9 3.2 Site B...........................................................................................................................................10 3.3 Other Site Options ......................................................................................................................12 4 Wind-Diesel System Design and Equipment.......................................................................................13 4.1 Wind-diesel Integration Controls................................................................................................14 4.2 Energy Storage Options ...............................................................................................................14 4.2.1 Batteries..............................................................................................................................14 4.2.2 PowerStore Flywheel..........................................................................................................15 5 Wind Turbines and HOMER Modeling....................................................................................................16 5.1 Diesel Power Plant......................................................................................................................16 5.2 Wind Turbines.............................................................................................................................17 5.2.1 Northern Power Systems Northwind 100...........................................................................17 Point Lay Wind-Diesel Hybrid Feasibility Study P a g e | ii 5.2.2 Aeronautica AW29-225.......................................................................................................18 5.2.3 Wind Turbine Performance Comparison............................................................................19 5.3 Modeling.....................................................................................................................................19 5.3.1 Electric Load........................................................................................................................19 5.3.2 Thermal Load ......................................................................................................................20 5.3.3 Diesel Generators................................................................................................................20 6 Economic Analysis...............................................................................................................................22 6.1 Wind Turbine Costs.....................................................................................................................22 6.2 Fuel Cost......................................................................................................................................22 6.3 Modeling Assumptions ...............................................................................................................23 6.4 Wind Power Site Cost Assumptions............................................................................................24 6.5 Site A Project Economics.............................................................................................................25 6.5.1 Medium Fuel Price Projection, 82% Turbine Availability....................................................25 6.5.2 High Fuel Price Projection, 82% Turbine Availability..........................................................26 6.5.3 Low Fuel Price Projection, 82% Turbine Availability...........................................................27 6.5.4 Medium Fuel Price Projection, 100% Turbine Availability..................................................28 6.6 Site B Project Economics.............................................................................................................29 6.6.1 Medium Fuel Price Projection, 82% Turbine Availability....................................................29 6.6.2 High Fuel Price Projection, 82% Turbine Availability..........................................................30 6.6.3 Low Fuel Price Projection, 82% Turbine Availability...........................................................31 6.6.4 Medium Fuel Price Projection, 82% Turbine Availability....................................................32 7 Conclusion and Recommendations.....................................................................................................33 Appendix A: Notice of Presumed Hazard, Site A........................................................................................34 Appendix B: Determination of No Hazard, Site B ......................................................................................35 Appendix C: Northwind 100 Wind Turbine................................................................................................36 Appendix D: Aeronautica AW29-225 Wind Turbine..................................................................................37 Point Lay Wind-Diesel Hybrid Feasibility Study P a g e | 1 Executive Summary The measured high Class 4 to Class 5 wind resource in Point Lay, based on a wind classification system with a range of 1 (poor) to 7 (superb) in terms of wind energy potential, is excellent with an average wind velocity of 6.63 m/s (14.8 mph) at 30 meters elevation. Additionally, the test location experiences low turbulence and relatively low probability of extreme wind events (the latter a reference to Wainwright data), making Point Lay a superior candidate for a wind energy project. Two potential wind turbine sites were investigated for this study: Site A, located on a fairly low but well- exposed north-south trending hill immediately north of the village and immediately south of the mouth of the Kokolik River; and site B, located in a well exposed area south of the village between the village and the airport. Although Site A is higher and more exposed than Site B, for this study each site was considered to have equivalent wind resource potential, which was collected near Site B. Site A would require construction of an access road and distribution line extension, but has not turbine height restrictions. Site B would require less road and distribution line construction but has an FAA-imposed height restriction due to proximity to the airport With an excellent wind resource and considering NSB’s goal to offset as much as possible the usage of expensive fossil fuel to generate electricity, medium or high penetration wind-diesel power configurations are the most suitable choice for Point Lay. There have been significant challenges to date though with implementing high penetration wind-diesel systems in rural Alaska due to complexity, high capital cost and operational problems. With an understanding that NSB must provide very high power system reliability, only the medium penetration configuration was modeled in this study as it represents a robust middle ground between insufficient fuel savings of the low penetration approach and the expense and considerable complexity of high penetration wind. A medium penetration approach would employ wind turbine capacity capable to approximately match peak load on windy days. In Point Lay, this would offset 20 to 50 percent of annual diesel energy production. To maintain reliability, “spinning reserve” (an on-line diesel generator operating between 10% and 100% rated output) would be maintained at all times to supplement the electrical load in anticipation of fluctuating wind conditions. During higher winds and lower electrical load, surplus wind-generated electricity would be shunted to an electric boiler to supplement thermal heat loads. Based on the average and peak electrical loads in Point Lay, only new wind turbines between 100 and 350 kW rated power were considered in this study. Market availability for turbines in this size range is very limited worldwide and more limited yet in the United States, so only the fully arctic-rated 100 kW Northern Power Systems Northwind 100 and the 225 kW Aeronautica AW29-225, both manufactured in the United States, were identified as turbines suitable for use in Wainwright. The 330 kW German Enercon E33 would be a very good alternate choice, but this turbine is not available in the American market. The NW100 and the AW29-225 both have a history of successful use in utility power systems and have established support in Alaska. Point Lay Wind-Diesel Hybrid Feasibility Study P a g e | 2 HOMER software was used to predict the performance of wind turbines if added to the planned new Point Lay diesel power system with reference to load profile and operating costs reported to Alaska Energy Authority for the power cost equalization (PCE) program. Based on these simulations, economic analyses was performed to determine benefit/cost (B/C) ratios based on initial capital cost of wind turbines and related distribution and control system upgrades, O&M cost of the diesel plant and wind turbines, fuel cost and related avoided fuel usage. The economic analyses were tabulated using medium, high, and low fuel cost projections (as predicted by UAA’s Institute for Social and Economic Research) for Sites A and B with a number of different turbine configurations at each site. Even with conservative estimates of capital costs and O&M expenses over the life of the project, the medium and high fuel cost projections yield positive benefit-to-cost ratios for either turbine at both sites. Only the low cost projection fails to predict positive project benefit-to-cost ratios. Point Lay Wind-Diesel Hybrid Feasibility Study P a g e | 3 1 Introduction The North Slope Borough (NSB) contracted with WHPacific to prepare wind power feasibility studies for the villages of Wainwright, Point Lay, and Point Hope. WHPacific contracted with V3 Energy, LLC to assist with the project. This report documents the feasibility study of Point Lay; the Wainwright and Point Hope studies are contained under separate cover. Although NSB is home to vast fields of recoverable oil and natural gas, the huge size of the borough and the relative geographic concentration of these fossil fuel resources means that a number of NSB villages, including the coastal village of Point Lay, cannot tap these resources in any practical manner and instead must rely on the importation of diesel fuel for electricity generation and thermal heating. NSB desires to reduce Point Lay’s dependency on diesel fuel by developing renewable energy sources to augment the diesel generator and fuel oil boilers. Previous studies have determined that wind power has the most potential of the borough’s renewable energy resources to be economically viable and hence this study focuses only on the wind resource and wind turbines to exploit that resource. 1.1 Scope of Work This study, which was paid for with Alaska Energy Authority funds made available through the Alaska Renewable Energy Fund Program and with matching funds from the North Slope Borough, investigates and evaluates wind turbine power options in Point Hope, Point Lay, and Wainwright. The scope of work of this study includes: Select two wind turbine locations per village Perform geotechnical investigation at each site Identify land and/or regulatory issues for each site Conduct wind technology workshop with NSB Prepare conceptual design and feasibility reports An environmental study, which is essential in determining site feasibility, will be conducted under a separate contract and is not included in this report. 1.2 Village of Point Lay Point Lay is one of the more recently established Inupiaq villages on the Arctic coast and has historically been occupied year-round by a small group of one or two families. They were joined in 1929-30 by several more families from Point Hope. The deeply-indented shoreline has prevented effective bowhead whaling, but the village participates in beluga whaling. In 1974, the village moved from the old site on a gravel barrier island just offshore. The old village site is now used as a summer hunting camp. Some residents of Barrow and Wainwright relocated to Point Lay in the mid-1970s. Later that decade, due to seasonal flooding from the Kokolik River, the village relocated again to a site near Point Lay Wind-Diesel Hybrid Feasibility Study P a g e | 4 the Air Force Distance Early Warning station to the south. Homes were relocated to the new town site. Point Lay is a traditional Inupiat Eskimo village, with a dependence upon subsistence activities. The sale and importation of alcohol is banned in the village. According to Census 2010, there were 70 housing units in the community and 60 were occupied. Its population of 189 people is 88 percent Alaska Native, 10 percent Caucasian, and 2 percent Hispanic, Pacific Islander, multi-racial and other. Water is obtained from a lake near the community and is treated and stored in a tank. Households have water delivered to home tanks, which allows running water for the kitchen. Electricity is provided by North Slope Borough. There is one school located in the community, attended by 87 students. Local hospitals or health clinics include Point Lay Clinic. Emergency Services have coastal and air access. Emergency service is provided by 911 Telephone Service volunteers and a health aide. Auxiliary healthcare is provided by Point Lay Volunteer Fire Dept. (907-833-2714). A public 4,500' long by 100' wide gravel airstrip, owned by the U.S. Air Force, provides Point Lay's only year-round access. Marine and land transportation provide seasonal access. Most year-round employment opportunities are with the borough government. Subsistence activities provide food sources. Seals, walrus, beluga, caribou, and fish are staples of the diet. The 2005 to 2009 American Community Survey estimated 59 (MOE +/-25) residents as employed. The ACS surveys established that average median household income (in 2009 inflation-adjusted dollars) was $46,875 (MOE +/-$36,041). The per capita income (in 2009 inflation-adjusted dollars) was $14,067 (MOE +/-$4,832). About 16.8% (MOE +/-19.2%) of all residents had incomes below the poverty level. Note that information regarding Point Lay is drawn from the Alaska Community Database Community Information Summaries (CIS) which can be found at http://www.dced.state.ak.us/dca/commdb/CIS.cfm. Regarding the American Community Survey information, MOE refers to margin of error. 1.3 Climate Point Lay is located just south of the mouth of the Kokolik River, about 300 miles southwest of Barrow. The climate is arctic. Temperatures range from -55 F in winter to 78 °F in summer. Precipitation is light, averaging seven inches annually with 21 inches of snow. The Chukchi Sea is ice-free from late June until September. 1.4 Geology Geotechnical study was accomplished at Sites A and B by Golder and Associates of Anchorage. Their report of findings may be found under separate cover. 1.5 Permitting The permits that are typically required to erect wind turbines and construct supporting access roads and power distribution lines are: Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) obstruction notification State of Alaska land use, if constructing on State land Point Lay Wind-Diesel Hybrid Feasibility Study P a g e | 5 Local land use, if constructing on Borough land Alaska Fish and Game fish habitat, if access road crosses stream(s) U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) wetlands, if constructing on identified wetlands; may require concurrence with: o National Historic Preservation Act o Endangered Species Act, if endangered species potentially impacted o Consideration of essential fish habitat, if access road crosses stream(s) o Migratory Bird Act, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Point Lay Wind-Diesel Hybrid Feasibility Study P a g e | 6 2 Wind Resource Assessment The wind resource measured in Point Lay is very good, measured at high wind power class 4 (good) to low wind power class 5 (excellent). In addition to strong average wind speed and wind power density, the site experiences highly directional prevailing winds and low turbulence. A thirty meter NRG met tower was supplied to the Point Lay’s Cully Corporation in 2006 by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s (NREL) under their anemometer loan program. A number of details of the project are not known, including the rationale for choosing the test site, but the location of the tower is desirable for a wind resource assessment as it is well away from obstructions such as buildings and well exposed to winds from all directions. Although data collection in 2006 and 2007 was slightly short of twelve months, the met tower was returned to operational status in June 2011, enabling additional data collection to strengthen the earlier data set. 2.1 Met tower data synopsis Data dates October 5, 2006 to September 11, 2007 Wind power class High 4 (good) to low 5 (excellent) Power density mean, 30 meters 403 W/m 2 Wind speed mean, 30 meters 6.63 m/s Weibull distribution parameters k = 1.74, c = 7.44 m/s Wind shear power law exponent 0.142 (moderate), June to September data only Roughness class 0.54 (snow surface), June to September only IEC 61400-1, 3rd ed. classification Class III-c (likely, based on nearby Wainwright data) Turbulence intensity, mean 0.072 (at 15 m/s) Calm wind frequency 23% (less than 3.5 m/s) 2.2 Data Recovery Specific sensor data recovery problems typical of Alaska met tower operations, such as freezing rain, hoarfrost, and rime icing, likely occurred to some extent during the nearly one year met tower study in Point Lay, but original data was not available, other than in an Excel file with data from June 7 through September 11, 2007. Although this three month data set could be reviewed for data loss typically due to atmospheric icing conditions, such weather does not occur during the months of June, July, August and (early) September. All met tower data (including that not included in the Excel file download of original data) is summarized in several WindPRO software reports prepared by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. 2.3 Wind Speed Wind data collected from the met tower and summarized in the NREL WindPRO reports, from the perspective of both mean wind speed and mean power density, indicates an excellent wind resource. Note that temperature data was not included in the analysis of power density. Given the extremely cold temperatures, and hence high air densities, of Point Lay, true wind power density will be higher yet, categorizing Point Lay more solidly as wind power class 5. For purposes of analysis, wind data monthly wind speed summaries contained in the 30 meter WindPRO report, along with other statistical data Point Lay Wind-Diesel Hybrid Feasibility Study P a g e | 7 gleaned from the three-month Excel data, was used to synthesize a virtual data set. This enabled certain mathematic and graphical analyses not contained in the WindPRO reports. Wind speed profile (30 meter height) 2.4 Wind Rose Wind frequency rose data (from NREL’s WindPRO report) indicates highly directional winds from northeast to east-northeast. Although the NREL report did not show a power density rose, Wainwright data confirms the Point Lay directional frequency and indicates that power winds are nearly exclusively northeast to east-northeast, which presumably is representative of Point Lay. 2.5 Turbulence Intensity From the NREL report, turbulence intensity at the Point Lay test site is well within acceptable standards with an IEC 61400-1, 3rd edition (2005), classification of turbulence category C, which is the lowest defined. Mean turbulence intensity at 15 m/s is 0.072 Point Lay Wind-Diesel Hybrid Feasibility Study P a g e | 8 Turbulence graphs Point Lay Wind-Diesel Hybrid Feasibility Study P a g e | 9 3 Wind Project Sites NSB requested that two wind turbine sites be identified in Point Lay. On June 24, 2011, Ross Klooster of WHPacific, Doug Vaught of V3 Energy LLC, and Max Ahgeak of NSB Public Works Dept. traveled to Point Lay and met with City of Point Lay and Cully Corporation representatives to discuss the wind power project and to identify the two sites. This was accomplished by reviewing maps and ownership records and then driving and walking to a number of locations near the village to assess suitability for construction and operation of wind turbines. Two sites on Cully Corporation land were chosen, identified as Site A and Site B in the Google Earth image below. The Cully Corporation controls much of the land surrounding Point Lay and has championed wind power in Point Lay for a number of years, including working with NREL in 2006 for the met tower that measured the local wind resource. With this in mind, locating wind turbines on Cully Corporation land is highly desirable. Point Lay site options, Google Earth image 3.1 Site A Site A is located on a fairly low but well-exposed north-south trending hill immediately north of the village and immediately south of the mouth of the Kokolik River. Site A presents a number of positive features for a wind power site including a large enough area for several wind turbines, clear exposure in all directions, relative proximity to existing three-phase power distribution, and dry tundra. Additionally, and very importantly, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) made a determination of no hazard for wind turbines up to 195 ft. (60 meters) above ground level, which enables significant flexibility with turbine selection (refer to Appendix A). Less positive features of Site A include its Point Lay Wind-Diesel Hybrid Feasibility Study P a g e | 10 proximity to Point Lay residences and the possible preclusion of future residential development along this ridge, which is the natural direction of future housing expansion for the village. Point Lay Site A 3.2 Site B Site B is located in a well exposed area south of the village between the village and the airport. Positive features of Site B for wind power development is that it is on the “industrial” side of Point Lay, has good wind exposure in all directions, is very near existing three-phase power distribution, and would require minimal access improvements. Adversely, however, an FAA determination of notice of presumed hazard for wind turbines at Site B indicated that turbines would be restricted to 162 ft. AGL, limiting turbine options to the Northwind 100B/21 or the Aeronautica AW29-225 to a 30 meter tower (refer to Appendix B). The Site B area also is a bit constrained, which may restrict the option of future wind power expansion at this site. Point Lay Wind-Diesel Hybrid Feasibility Study P a g e | 11 Point Lay Site B Point Lay Sites A and B comparison table Wind Turbine Site Advantages Disadvantages A Cully Corp. land Possible area of village expansion Site large enough to accommodate several turbines Turbines will be in view and possible auditory range of village residents Relatively dry site;likely good geotech conditions Possible avian conflicts with near proximity to mouth of the Kokolik River FAA Determination of No Hazard (DNH) for turbines up to 195 ft (59.5 meters) AGL Somewhat limited space for future expansion Short road and distribution line required B Cully Corp. land FAA determination of Notice of Presumed Hazard (NPH) for turbines exceeding 162 ft AGL Short road and distribution line required Somewhat limited space for future expansion Location is on the “industrial” side of the village with less viewshed and possible noise issues Relatively dry site; likely good geotech conditions Point Lay Wind-Diesel Hybrid Feasibility Study P a g e | 12 3.3 Other Site Options Other than Sites A and B, the only other realistic area for wind turbines in Point Lay is the terrain east of the village. Although expansive and easily large enough to contain many wind turbines, it is characterized by very marshy and wet conditions which would require considerable fill material for construction. Additionally, with prevailing northeasterly to easterly winds, turbines east of the village would have to be located reasonably distant to avoid noise and downwind ice throw problems. Also, the absence of electric power distribution east of the village presents a further disadvantage and would increase development costs. Point Lay Wind-Diesel Hybrid Feasibility Study P a g e | 13 4 Wind-Diesel System Design and Equipment Wind-diesel power systems are categorized based on their average penetration levels, or the overall proportion of wind-generated electricity compared to the total amount of electrical energy generated. Commonly used categories of wind-diesel penetration levels are low penetration, medium penetration, and high penetration, as summarized below. The wind penetration level is roughly equivalent to the amount of diesel fuel displaced by wind power. Note however that the higher the level of wind penetration, the more complex and expensive a control system and demand-management strategy is required. Categories of wind-diesel penetration levels Penetration PenetrationLevel Operating characteristics and system requirements Instantaneous Average Low 0% to 50% Less than 20% Diesel generator(s) run full time at greater than minimum loading level. Requires minimal changes to existing diesel control system. All wind energy generated supplies the village electric load; wind turbines function as “negative load” with respect to diesel generator governor response. Medium 0%to 100+%20%to 50% Diesel generator(s)run full time at greater than minimum loading level. Requirescontrol system capable of automatic generator start, stop and paralleling. To control system frequency during periods of high wind power input, system requires fast acting secondary load controller matched to a secondary load such as an electric boiler augmenting a generator heat recovery loop. At high wind power levels, secondary (thermal) loads are dispatched to absorb energy not used by the primary (electric) load. Without secondary loads, wind turbines must be curtailed to control frequency. High (Diesels-off Capable) 0% to 150+% Greater than 50% Diesel generator(s) can be turned off during periods of high wind power levels. Requires sophisticated new control system, significant wind turbine capacity, secondary (thermal)load,energy storage such as batteries or a flywheel, and possibly additional components such as demand- manageddevices. Choosing the ideal wind penetration for Point Lay depends on a number of factors, including load profile of the community, wind resource, construction cost and challenges, fuel price and also technical capability and experience of the utility with wind power and energy storage systems. There is no one “right” answer and the most optimal wind-diesel system for Point Lay may not be the one that displaces the most fuel, nor even one that has the highest estimated benefit-to-cost ratio. It is presumed for the purposes of this feasibility study that North Slope Borough’s interest will be with a medium penetration option as that provides significant enough fuel savings to justify the high construction costs of a wind turbine project yet avoids the significant design complexity and operational challenges of high penetration. Point Lay Wind-Diesel Hybrid Feasibility Study P a g e | 14 4.1 Wind-diesel Integration Controls Medium to high-penetration wind-diesel systems require fast-acting real and reactive power management to compensate for rapid variation in village load and wind turbine power output. A wind- diesel system master controller, typically referred to as a supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) system, is installed to select theoptimum system component configuration based on village load demand and available wind power. Regardless of the supplier, a SCADA system is capable of controlling individual components and allowing those components to communicate status to the system. A typical SCADA will consist of the following: Station Controller: schedules and dispatches diesel generators, wind turbines and other components units, performs remote control functions, and stores collected component and system data Generation Controller: monitors and controls individual diesel generators Wind Turbine Controller: monitors and controls individual wind turbine and dispatches wind turbines Feeder Monitor: monitors vital statistics of an individual distribution feeder, including ground fault information Demand Controller: monitors, controls, and schedules demand-managed devices 4.2 Energy Storage Options Although high penetration wind power is not proposed in this feasibility study, as reference for future development, electrical energy storage provides a means of storing wind generated power during periods of high winds and releasing that power to the electrical distribution system as winds subside. 4.2.1 Batteries Batteries are most appropriate for providing medium-term energy storage to allow a transition, or bridge, between the variable output of wind turbines, and diesel generation. This bridging period is typically between five and fifteen minutes. Storage for several hours or days is also possible with batteries, but requires more capacity and higher cost. In general, the disadvantages of batteries for energy storage, even for a small utility system, are high capital and maintenance costs and limited lifetime. Of particular concern to rural Alaska communities is that batteries are heavy and expensive to transport to the site, and many contain toxic material that requires disposal as hazardous waste at the end of a battery’s useful life. Because batteries operate on direct current (DC), a converter is required when connected to an alternating current (AC) system. A typical battery storage system includes a bank of batteries and a power conversion device. Recent advances in power electronics have made solid state converter (inverter/rectifier) systems cost effective and hence the preferred power conversion device. Despite some drawbacks, electric power storage with batteries is a proven technology, but it has seen limited use in rural Alaska wind-diesel projects to date. Wales is equipped with a high penetration wind system with battery storage that is functional, but its operational history has been very disappointing and given the design age, it is not considered a reproducible system. Kokhanok has a recently-installed Point Lay Wind-Diesel Hybrid Feasibility Study P a g e | 15 high-penetration wind-diesel system with lead-acid type battery storage, designed and constructed by Marsh Creek LLC of Anchorage, although it is not yet operational. Of interest is a 250 kW flow battery that Kotzebue Electric Association plans to install in 2012 in Kotzebue to support their planned installation of two 900 kW EWT wind turbines. 4.2.2 PowerStore Flywheel Built by Powercorp Pty of Darwin, Australia, the PowerStore is a very fast-acting energy source and sink system based on a modern flywheel and bi-directional converter. During normal operation, energy is supplied to the PowerStore as a steady 12 kW load to maintain rotational energy. When necessary to control power system frequency, energy is delivered to or drawn from the flywheel. The PowerStore can absorb or deliver 300 or 1000 kW (depending on the inverter) of power in 5 milliseconds. The PowerStore has been used in rural wind-diesel and mining applications in a number of locations worldwide, including Antarctica and remote regions of Australia. Point Lay Wind-Diesel Hybrid Feasibility Study P a g e | 16 5 Wind Turbines and HOMER Modeling Considering NSB’s goal of displacing as much diesel fuel for electrical generation as possible and yet recognizing the present limitations of high penetration wind power in Alaska and NSB’s desire to operate a highly stable and reliable electrical utility in Point Lay, only the medium penetration wind- diesel configuration scenario was modeled with HOMER software. Note that low penetration wind was not modeled as this would involve use of smaller farm-scale turbines that are not designed for severe cold climates, and low penetration would not meet NSB’s goal of significantly displacing fuel usage in Point Lay. As previously noted, a medium penetration wind-diesel configuration is a compromise between the simplicity of a low penetration wind power and the significant complexity and sophistication of the high penetration wind. With medium penetration, instantaneous wind input is sufficiently high (at 100 plus percent of the village electrical load) to require a secondary or diversion load to absorb excess wind power, or alternatively, to require curtailment of wind turbine output during periods of high wind/low electric loads. For Point Lay, appropriate wind turbines for medium wind penetration are generally in the 100 to 300 kW range with more numbers of turbines required for lower output machines compared to larger output models. There are a number of comparative medium penetration village wind-diesel power systems presently in operation in Alaska. These include the AVEC villages of Toksook Bay, Chevak, Savoonga, Kasigluk, Hooper Bay, among others. All are characterized by wind turbines directly connected to the AC distribution system. AC bus frequency control during periods of high wind penetration, when diesel governor control would be insufficient, is managed by the sub-cycle, high resolution, and fast-switching capability of the secondary load controller (SLC). Ideally, the SLC is connected to an electric boiler serving a thermal load as this will enhance overall system efficiency by augmenting the operation of the fuel oil boiler(s) serving the thermal load. 5.1 Diesel Power Plant Electric power (comprised of the diesel power plant and the electric power distribution system) in Point Lay is provided by North Slope Borough Public Works Department, the utility for all communities on the North Slope, with the exception of Deadhorse and Barrow. The existing power plant in Point Lay consists of five Caterpillar 3406B diesel generators and one Caterpillar 3412 diesel generator, all rated at 330 kW. This power plant is due to be replaced in 2013, however, with four Caterpillar 3508C diesel generators, all rated at 600 kW. Because the power plant will be upgraded soon, wind-diesel system modeling for this report is based on the configuration of the new plant. Point Lay powerplant diesel generators (planned, 2013) Generator Electrical Capacity Diesel Engine Model 1 600 kW Caterpillar 3508C 2 600 kW Caterpillar 3508C 3 600 kW Caterpillar 3508C 4 600 kW Caterpillar 3508C Point Lay Wind-Diesel Hybrid Feasibility Study P a g e | 17 The control system for the new power plant will consist of Woodward EasyGen 3200P2 generator controller/protective relay package for each of the four new Cat 3508C generators, General Electric Multiline 350 feeder protection package for each of the two feeders, and an Allen Bradley 1769 PLC for automated system control. 5.2 Wind Turbines For this study, the wind turbines considered are restricted to rated outputs of 100 to 350 kW as this size range well matches Point Lay’s electric load. This eliminates the battery-charging turbines and small grid-connect home and farm-scale turbines that are insufficient for village power needs and the very large utility-scale turbines that would overwhelm the Point Lay power system. Unfortunately though, the world wind turbine market offers very few turbines in this mid or village-scale size range. Of new turbines, two American-made options are the 100 kW Northwind 100 and the 225 kW Aeronautica 29- 225. The 330 kW German-made Enercon E33 would be an excellent option, but it remains unavailable to the U.S. market due to a past patent dispute between Enercon and General Electric. Remanufactured wind turbines are a possible option for NSB to consider, with the 225 kW Danish-made Vestas V27 available through Halus Power Systems of San Leandro, California. Whether new or remanufactured, the primary criteria for wind turbines suitable for Point Lay are: Alternating current (AC) generator; synchronous or asynchronous are acceptable Cold-climate capable (rated to -40° C) with appropriate use of materials, lubricants and heaters IEC Class II rated A “known” turbine with an existing track record of installed operation Suitable for marine environments Established North American support capability, preferably with an Alaska presence 5.2.1 Northern Power Systems Northwind 100 The Northwind 100 (the NW100B/21 model) wind turbine is manufactured by Northern Power Systems in Barre, Vermont. The NW100 turbine is stall-regulated, has a direct-drive permanent magnet synchronous generator, active yaw control, a 21 meter diameter rotor, is rated at 100 kW power output, and is available only on a 37 meter tubular steel tower. The NW100B/21 is fully arctic-climate certified to -40° C and is the most represented village-scale wind turbine in Alaska at present with a significant number of installations in the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta and on St. Lawrence Island. More information can be found at: http://www.northernpower.com/and in Appendix C of this report. Point Lay Wind-Diesel Hybrid Feasibility Study P a g e | 18 NW100 wind turbine NW100B/21 power curve 5.2.2 Aeronautica AW29-225 The Aeronautica AW29-225 wind turbine is manufactured new by Aeronautica in Durham, New Hampshire. This turbine was originally designed by the Danish-manufacturer Norwin in the 1980’s and had a long and successful history in the wind industry before being replaced by larger capacity turbines for utility-scale grid-connect installations. The AW29-225 turbine is stall-regulated, has a synchronous (induction) generator, active yaw control, a 29 meter diameter rotor, is rated at 225 kW power output, and is available with 30, 40, or 50 meter tubular steel towers. The AW29-225 is fully arctic-climate certified to -40° C and is new to the Alaska market with no in-state installations at present. More information can be found at http://aeronauticawind.com/aw/index.html and in Appendix D of this report. Aeronautica AW29-225 AW29-225 power curve Point Lay Wind-Diesel Hybrid Feasibility Study P a g e | 19 5.2.3 Wind Turbine Performance Comparison In the table below is an analysis of turbine output and capacity factor performance of the turbines profiled above, with comparisons of manufacturer rated output power at 100%, 90% and 80% turbine availability (percent of time that the turbine is on-line and available for energy production). Both the NW100B/21 and the AW29-225 perform well in the wind regime of Point Lay with excellent capacity factors and annual energy production. Turbine capacity factor comparison 100% availability 90% availability 80% availability Turbine Model Rated Output (kW) Hub Height (m) Tip Heigh t (m)* Tip Heigh t (ft.)* Annual Energy (MWh) Capacit y Factor (%) Annual Energy (MWh) Capacit y Factor (%) Annual Energy (MWh) Capacit y Factor (%) NW100B/21 100 37 47.5 156 282.5 31.3 254.3 28.2 226.0 25.0 AW29-225 225 30 44.5 146 552.4 28.0 497.2 25.2 441.9 22.4 225 40 54.5 179 594.3 30.2 534.9 27.2 475.4 24.2 225 50 64.5 212 627.2 31.8 564.5 28.6 501.8 25.4 *Note: assumes base of turbine tower at ground level 5.3 Modeling Wind turbine and system performance modeling of wind-diesel configurations in Point Lay was accomplished with HOMER software. This software enables static modeling of a power system to demonstrate energy balances and fuel displacement with introduction of wind power. A limitation of the software is that it is not suitable for dynamic modeling. In other words, it cannot model voltage and frequency perturbations and power system dynamics, although it will provide a warning for systems that are potentially unstable. 5.3.1 Electric Load The Point Lay electric load was synthesized with the Alaska Electric Load Calculator Excel program written in 2006 by Mia Devine of the Alaska Energy Authority. This spreadsheet allows one to create a “virtual” village load in one hour increments, suitable for import into HOMER software. For this feasibility study, 2009 and 2010 PCE data of reported gross kWh generated, average power, fuel usage, and powerplant efficiency was used with the Alaska Load Calculator to synthesize a 402 kW average load with a 632 kW peak load and approximately 230 kW minimum load. Graphical representations of the electric load are shown below. Point Lay Wind-Diesel Hybrid Feasibility Study P a g e | 20 5.3.2 Thermal Load The thermal load available to the diesel generator heat recovery system was estimated based on better- documented thermal loads in other villages, the size of Point Lay’s electrical load, and village meter log information. Typically very difficult to quantify as accurately as the electric load, the thermal load serves as an energy “dump” in medium and high penetration wind-diesel configurations, or, more precisely, as the secondary load available to absorb excess electrical energy generated by wind turbines during periods of relatively high wind turbine output and low electric load demand. 5.3.3 Diesel Generators The Point Lay power plant is scheduled for replacement in 2013 at a new location and with four new diesel generators and switchgear. Because the new diesel generators will be redundant in capacity, the HOMER model was constructed with three (of the four new) 600 kW Caterpillar 3508C diesel generators. For cost modeling purposes, AEA in their Renewable Energy Fund grant program assumes a generator O&M cost of $0.020/kWh. This was converted to $8.00/operating hour for each diesel generator for use in the HOMER software model (based on Point Lay’s modeled average electrical load of 402 kW). Manufacturer fuel curves for the diesel generators, provided by David Lockard of AEA in an Excel file entitled Cat C9M C18M 3508 3512 3456 Mar 20081, were used in the HOMER models. In addition, the diesel engines in the modeling runs were set to “optimize”, which HOMER interprets as use of the most efficient diesel generator whenever possible. Point Lay Wind-Diesel Hybrid Feasibility Study P a g e | 21 Diesel generator HOMER modeling information Diesel generator Caterpillar 3508C Caterpillar 3508C Caterpillar 3508C HOMER model identification Cat 1 Cat 2 Cat 3 Power output (kW)600 600 600 Intercept coefficient (L/hr/kW rated) 0.02368 0.02368 0.02368 Slope (L/hr/kW output)0.2377 0.2377 0.2377 Minimum electric load (%) 10 10 10 Heat recovery ratio (percent of waste heat that can serve the thermal load) 18 18 18 Intercept coefficient – the no-load fuel consumption of the generator divided by its capacity Slope – the marginal fuel consumption of the generator Caterpillar 3508C fuel efficiency curve Point Lay Wind-Diesel Hybrid Feasibility Study P a g e | 22 6 Economic Analysis Selected wind turbines in medium penetration mode are modeled in this report to demonstrate the economic viability of various configurations and fuel price points. Basic economic modeling assumptions of this feasibility study that are default assumptions of Alaska Energy Authority in their Renewable Energy Fund grant program are a 20 year project life and a three percent discount or interest rate (the cost of money). Based on Point Lay’s 2009 and 2010 PCE data, an annual utility fixed operations and maintenance (O&M) cost of $500,000 is assumed. 6.1 Wind Turbine Costs Capital and installation costs of wind turbines are somewhat difficult to estimate without detailed consideration of shipping fees, foundation design, cost efficiencies with installation of multiple turbines, identification of constructor, mobilization fees, etc. Although the cost assumptions detailed below should be considered tentative, they are generally in-line with other rural Alaska wind projects of the past few years. Note that for modeling purposes, an AW29-225 on a 30 meter tower is assumed to cost 1.5 percent less than noted below. Wind turbine cost assumptions Single Turbine 450-500 kW installed turbine capacity NW100B (100 kW) AW29-225 (225 kW) NW100B (100 kW) AW29-225 (225 kW) Total turbine output (kW) 100 225 500 450 No. of turbines 1 1 5 2 Price/turbine $348,000 $580,000 $348,000 $580,000 Engineering, VAR support n/a $35,000 n/a $35,000 Capacitors cost/turb, VAR support n/a $40,000 n/a $80,000 Turbine cost $348,000 $655,000 $1,740,000 $1,355,000 Turbine capital cost/kW $3,480 $2,756 $3,480 $2,933 Construction cost (estimated) $696,000 $1,160,000 $2,923,200 $2,088,000 Total installed cost $1,047,480 $1,817,756 $4,666,680 $3,445,933 Total installed cost/kW $10,475 $8,079 $9,333 $7,658 Note: AW29-225 price with 40 meter tower 6.2 Fuel Cost A fuel price of $6.79/gallon ($1.80/Liter) was chosen for the initial HOMER analysis by reference to Alaska Fuel Price Projections 2011-2035, prepared for Alaska Energy Authority by the Institute for Social and Economic Research (ISER), dated July 7, 2011. The $6.79/gallon price reflects the average value of all fuel prices between the 2013 (assumed project start year) fuel price of $5.50/gallon and the 2032 (the 20 year project end year) fuel price of $7.75/gallon using the medium price projection three-year moving average (MA3) analysis. Additional analyses with ISER’s low price projection MA3 and high price projection MA3 are included in the economic analysis of this report. For the high price projection, the median 2013 to 2032 three-year Point Lay Wind-Diesel Hybrid Feasibility Study P a g e | 23 moving average price is $10.73/gallon ($2.84/Liter). For the low price projection, the average 2013 to 2032 three-year moving average price is $3.24/gallon ($0.86/Liter). Note also that heating fuel in HOMER is priced the same as diesel fuel. Fuel cost table Cost Scenario 2013 (/gal) 2032 (/gal) Average (/gallon) Average (/Liter) Medium $5.50 $7.75 $6.79 $1.80 High $6.91 $12.64 $10.73 $2.84 Low $4.32 $2.92 $3.24 $0.86 ISER, MA3 cost projections 6.3 Modeling Assumptions In the HOMER modeling simulations, the annual average wind speed was reduced to 6.00 m/s (from a measured 6.63 m/s) to yield an approximate turbine availability of 82 percent. This is in-line with AEA assumptions of turbine availability in their economic models. HOMER modeling assumptions are listed in the table below. Basic modeling assumptions Economic Assumptions Project life 20 years Discount rate 3% System fixed O&M cost $500,000/year (average of 2009 and 2010 PCE Reports) Operating Reserves Load in current time step 10% Wind power output 50% Fuel Properties (both types) Heating value 42.5 MJ/kg (126,000 Btu/gal) Density 820 kg/m3 (6.84 lbs./gal) Diesel Generators Generator capital cost $150,000 O&M cost $8.00/hour ($0.02/kWh) Time between overhauls 20,000 hours Overhaul cost $75,000 Minimum load ratio 10% or 60 kW; based on AVEC’s operational experience of 50 kW minimum diesel loading with their wind-diesel systems Schedule Optimized Wind Turbines Availability Approx. 82% Scaled annual average wind speed 6.00 m/s (6.63 m/s non-scaled, from met tower data) O&M cost $0.0469/kWh (translated to $/year based on 26% turbine CF) Point Lay Wind-Diesel Hybrid Feasibility Study P a g e | 24 NW100B/21 $10,700/yr/turbine AW 29-225 $24,000/yr/turbine 6.4 Wind Power Site Cost Assumptions The base or comparison scenario, which does not include wind turbines, is construction of the new power plant with four Caterpillar 3508C generators valued at $150,000 each. Additionally, a capital cost of $150,000 is assumed for the new SCADA system. The cost of the power plant itself is not modeled as it is a necessary expense in any scenario. Wind turbines in a medium penetration system configuration may be constructed at Site A or Site B. Development costs between the sites will be different because of varying distances of access roads and new power distribution lines. For both sites, $150,000 is assumed both for SCADA improvements to accommodate the inclusion of wind power into the new diesel power plant operating system and a secondary load controller and electric boiler to allow excess wind turbine power to serve the thermal load. Additionally for both sites, $50,000 is assumed for basic permitting and project management. As noted in the table below, these fixed costs plus the varying road access and power distribution extension development costs for each site result in total development costs of $524,000 for Site A and $309,000 for Site B. Typically, geotechnical studies are also included as part of the site development process to support the design of turbine foundations, but these efforts have already been accomplished. Wind project cost assumptions Base Site A Site B SCADA system for new diesel generators $150,000 SCADA upgrade, SLC, boiler $150,000 $150,000 extension $144,000 $64,000 Road extension $180,000 $45,000 Permitting and project mgmt. $50,000 $50,000 $150,000 $524,000 $309,000 Distribution line distance (miles) 0.36 0.16 Road distance (miles) 0.36 0.09 Notes: Distribution line, $400K/mi Road, $500K/mi Point Lay Wind-Diesel Hybrid Feasibility Study P a g e | 33 7 Conclusion and Recommendations The prospect of wind power in Point Lay is excellent due to the relatively high average wind speed, high wind power density, highly directional winds, and lack of extreme wind events. In anticipation of medium to high fuel price projections over a 20-year project period and even with the conservative nature of the cost and performance assumptions, the economic analyses contained in this report show positive benefit-to-cost ratios for incorporation of wind power into the Point Lay power system. It is highly recommended and strongly urged that NSB pursue a conceptual design for a wind-diesel power system for Point Lay. Although the prospects of a high penetration wind-diesel system, based on present experience in Alaska with current technology, do not seem favorable at this time, upgrade to high penetration will be a strong consideration in the near future and is the natural evolution of the recommended medium penetration configuration option modeled in this study. Point Lay Wind-Diesel Hybrid Feasibility Study P a g e | 34 Appendix A: Notice of Presumed Hazard, Site A Point Lay Wind-Diesel Hybrid Feasibility Study P a g e | 35 Appendix B: Determination of No Hazard, Site B Point Lay Wind-Diesel Hybrid Feasibility Study P a g e | 36 Appendix C: Northwind 100 Wind Turbine Point Lay Wind-Diesel Hybrid Feasibility Study P a g e | 37 Appendix D: Aeronautica AW29-225 Wind Turbine