Loading...
HomeMy WebLinkAboutPoint Hope Wind Diesel Generation Project Wind Resource Report - Aug 2010 - REF Grant 7040026Point Hope Wind Resource Report Report by: Douglas Vaught, P.E., V3 Energy LLC, Eagle River, Alaska Date of Report: August 26, 2010 Point Hope met tower; D. Vaught photo Table of Contents Summary.......................................................................................................................................................2 Test Site Location......................................................................................................................................2 Photographs..................................................................................................................................................4 Data Recovery...............................................................................................................................................4 Wind Speed...................................................................................................................................................5 Time Series................................................................................................................................................6 Daily Wind Profile .....................................................................................................................................7 Probability Distribution Function..............................................................................................................8 Wind Shear and Roughness......................................................................................................................8 Extreme Winds............................................................................................................................................10 Temperature and Density...........................................................................................................................11 Point Hope Wind Resource Report Page 2 Wind Speed Scatterplot..........................................................................................................................12 Wind Direction............................................................................................................................................13 Turbulence..................................................................................................................................................14 Airport ASOS Data.......................................................................................................................................16 Summary The wind resource measured in Point Hope is very, very good, with measured wind power class 6 (outstanding). In addition to high average wind speeds and high wind power density, the site experiences very low turbulence and calculations indicate low extreme wind speed probability. Met tower data synopsis Data dates June 16, 2009 to July 15, 2010 (13 months) Wind power class 6 (outstanding) Power density mean, 30 m 515 W/m2 Wind speed mean, 30 m 7.12 m/s Max. 10-min wind speed average 27.9 m/s Maximum wind gust 32.2 m/s (Dec. 2009) Weibull distribution parameters k = 1.82, c = 7.92 m/s Wind shear power law exponent 0.110 (low) Roughness class 0.27 (rough sea) IEC 61400-1, 3rd ed. classification Class III-c (lowest defined and most common) Turbulence intensity, mean 0.073 (at 15 m/s) Calm wind frequency 20% (<3.5 m/s) Community profile Current Population: 713 (2009 DCCED Certified Population) Incorporation Type: 2nd Class City Borough Located In: North Slope Borough Taxes: Sales: None, Property: 18.5 mills (Borough), Special: None Coastal Management District:North Slope Borough Test Site Location Met tower was installed on the northeast corner of Point Hope, between the village water storage tank and a large snow fence. This site could be considered ideal for wind power development as it is also near the power plant and other existing electrical power infrastructure. Point Hope Wind Resource Report Page 3 Site information Site number 0221 Latitude/longitude N 68° 20.974’ W 166° 43.146’, WGS 84 Site elevation 2 meters Datalogger type NRG Symphonie, 10 minute time step Tower type NRG 34-meter tall tower, 152 mm diameter, erected to 30 m Anchor type 2.5 m shaft, 0.7 m square metal plate, buried Google Earth image Tower sensor information Channel Sensor type Height Multiplier Offset Orientation 1 NRG #40 anemometer 30 m (A) 0.755 0.38 178°T 2 NRG #40 anemometer 30 m (B)0.758 0.37 274°T 3 NRG #40 anemometer 20 m 0.756 0.37 282°T 7 NRG #200P wind vane 29 m 0.351 359 359° T 9 NRG #110S Temp C 3 m 0.136 -86.383 N 10 RH-5 relative humidity 2 m 0.098 0 S 12 Voltmeter 2 m 0.021 0 n/a Point Hope Wind Resource Report Page 4 Photographs Datalogger weather box and PV panel; D. Vaught photo Top of met tower; D. Vaught photo Datalogger with snow in weather box; D. Vaught photo Met tower and village edge; D. Vaught photo Data Recovery Data recovery to date in Point Hope was superior, with nearly 100 percent functionality of the anemometers and wind vane. This is remarkable anywhere in Alaska, but even more so on the Chukchi Sea coast of the North Slope with its intensely cold winter temperatures. Note that data loss from the relative humidity (RH) sensor was initially due to voltage drawdown of the iPack battery during the dark months of winter (the battery is recharged with photovoltaic panels). For unknown reasons, functionality of the RH sensor did not recover on return of daylight in springtime, even though the iPack battery recharged fully. Near perfect anemometer and wind vane data recovery indicates the complete absence of rime icing conditions, which would not have been expected at a coastal elevation anyways, but also the absence of heavy hoarfrost conditions which plagued wintertime data recovery on the relatively nearby Wainwright and Atqasuk met towers. Point Hope Wind Resource Report Page 5 Data recovery summary table Possible Valid Recovery Label Units Records Records Rate (%) Speed 30 A m/s 56,649 56,171 99.2 Speed 30 B m/s 56,649 56,169 99.2 Speed 20 m/s 56,649 56,468 99.7 Direction 29 ° 56,649 55,911 98.7 Temperature °C 56,649 56,581 99.9 RH-5 Humidity %RH %RH 56,649 22,397 39.5 iPack Voltmeter volts 56,649 56,649 100.0 Anemometer data recovery 30 m A 30 m B 20 m Possible Valid Recovery Valid Recovery Valid Recovery Year Month Records Records Rate (%) Records Rate (%) Records Rate (%) 2009 Jun 2,073 2,073 100.0 2,073 100.0 2,073 100.0 2009 Jul 4,464 4,464 100.0 4,464 100.0 4,464 100.0 2009 Aug 4,464 4,464 100.0 4,464 100.0 4,464 100.0 2009 Sep 4,320 4,320 100.0 4,320 100.0 4,320 100.0 2009 Oct 4,464 4,244 95.1 4,240 95.0 4,350 97.5 2009 Nov 4,320 4,263 98.7 4,241 98.2 4,320 100.0 2009 Dec 4,464 4,464 100.0 4,354 97.5 4,464 100.0 2010 Jan 4,464 4,464 100.0 4,464 100.0 4,464 100.0 2010 Feb 4,032 4,032 100.0 4,032 100.0 4,032 100.0 2010 Mar 4,464 4,464 100.0 4,464 100.0 4,464 100.0 2010 Apr 4,320 4,186 96.9 4,320 100.0 4,320 100.0 2010 May 4,464 4,464 100.0 4,464 100.0 4,464 100.0 2010 Jun 4,320 4,320 100.0 4,320 100.0 4,320 100.0 2010 Jul 2,016 1,949 96.7 1,949 96.7 1,949 96.7 All data 56,649 56,171 99.2 56,169 99.2 56,468 99.7 Wind Speed Wind data collected from the met tower, from the perspective of both mean wind speed and mean power density, indicates an outstanding wind resource. The minor discrepancy in mean wind speed between the 30 m A and the 30 m B anemometer is due to the placement of the of the 30 m A anemometer at 178° T. With frequent northerly winds, the 30m A anemometer experienced some minor tower shadowing effects. The cold arctic temperatures of Point Hope contributed to the high wind power density, a key consideration of wind turbine performance. Point Hope Wind Resource Report Page 6 Anemometer data summary Variable Speed 30 A Speed 30 B Speed 20 Measurement height (m) 30 30 20 Mean wind speed (m/s)7.02 7.12 6.79 Max 10-min avg wind speed (m/s) 27.5 27.9 26.1 Max gust wind speed (m/s) 31.7 32.2 31.4 Weibull k 1.85 1.82 1.82 Weibull c (m/s) 7.83 7.92 7.57 Mean power density (W/m²) 487 515 452 Mean energy content (kWh/m²/yr) 4,268 4,515 3,955 Energy pattern factor 2.11 2.14 2.16 Frequency of calms (%) 19.6 19.7 21.7 1-hr autocorrelation coefficient 0.948 0.949 0.950 Diurnal pattern strength 0.033 0.032 0.034 Hour of peak wind speed 19 19 19 Time Series Time series calculations indicate high wind speed averages throughout the year, even during summer. Although the October 2009 wind speed average was low compared to September and November, this is likely a statistical variation that would even out with multi-year data collection. 30m B data summary Mean Max 10- min avg Max gust Std. Dev. Weibull k Weibull c Year Month (m/s) (m/s) (m/s) (m/s) (m/s) 2009 Jun 6.41 15.4 18.2 3.14 2.14 7.23 2009 Jul 6.26 17.5 21.6 2.90 2.28 7.06 2009 Aug 6.64 19.9 23.5 3.57 1.92 7.47 2009 Sep 8.54 21.4 25.8 4.38 2.04 9.63 2009 Oct 6.28 15.9 18.6 3.35 1.97 7.10 2009 Nov 8.67 24.0 26.9 5.00 1.73 9.68 2009 Dec 9.05 27.9 32.2 4.64 2.03 10.20 2010 Jan 7.76 23.6 29.9 4.35 1.84 8.72 2010 Feb 7.03 22.8 24.6 3.66 2.00 7.92 2010 Mar 6.99 20.3 24.6 4.26 1.66 7.81 2010 Apr 6.91 19.0 23.9 3.45 2.09 7.79 2010 May 5.53 19.0 23.1 3.47 1.67 6.20 2010 Jun 5.04 15.7 18.9 2.90 1.82 5.68 2010 Jul 7.41 16.1 19.3 3.70 2.11 8.36 MMM Annual 7.12 27.9 32.2 4.02 1.82 7.92 Point Hope Wind Resource Report Page 7 Time series graph Daily Wind Profile The daily wind profile indicates a minor variation of wind speeds throughout the day, with lowest wind speeds during the morning hours and highest wind speeds during late afternoon and early evening hours. This perspective changes a bit when considering monthly views of daily profiles as more variation is observed. Annual daily wind profile Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 0 2 4 6 8 10 Seasonal Wind Speed Profile Speed 30 A Speed 30 B Speed 20 0 6 12 18 24 0 2 4 6 8 Mean Daily Profile Hour of Day Speed 30 A Speed 30 B Speed 20 Point Hope Wind Resource Report Page 8 Monthly daily wind profile Probability Distribution Function The probability distribution function (or histogram) of wind speed indicates a near-normal shape curve, defined as the Raleigh distribution (k=2.0), considered standard for wind power sites. Wind Shear and Roughness A wind shear power law exponent of 0.110 indicates very low wind shear at the site; hence turbine construction at a low hub height is feasible. Related to wind shear, a calculated surface roughness of 0.000789 meters (indicating the height above ground level where wind velocity would be zero) indicates moderately uneven terrain (roughness description: rough sea) surrounding the met tower, especially in the direction of the prevailing north-northwest winds. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Probability Distibution Function, All Sectors Speed 30 B (m/s) Point Hope Wind Resource Report Page 9 Vertical wind shear profile Wind shear by direction sector table, wind speed > 4 m/s Time Steps Sector Wind Mean Wind Speed (m/s) Best-Fit Power Law Exp Surface Roughness (m)Direction Sector (%) Speed 30 B Speed 20 348.75° - 11.25° 8,323 19.6% 9.91 9.45 0.081 0.0001 11.25° - 33.75° 4,374 10.3% 10.75 10.30 0.068 0.0000 33.75° - 56.25° 2,454 5.8% 8.51 8.08 0.108 0.0024 56.25° - 78.75° 1,564 3.7% 6.28 5.86 0.183 0.1047 78.75° - 101.25° 922 2.2% 6.52 5.91 0.274 0.6355 101.25° - 123.75° 1,238 2.9% 8.78 7.92 0.289 0.7712 123.75° - 146.25° 3,151 7.4% 8.99 8.51 0.164 0.0557 146.25° - 168.75° 2,744 6.5% 7.48 7.31 0.065 0.0000 168.75° - 191.25° 1,806 4.2% 7.24 7.19 0.007 191.25° - 213.75° 338 0.8% 6.13 5.50 0.261 0.5313 213.75° - 236.25° 282 0.7% 5.52 5.06 0.225 0.2894 236.25° - 258.75° 207 0.5% 5.76 5.29 0.221 0.2626 258.75° - 281.25° 316 0.7% 6.11 5.65 0.211 0.2156 281.25° - 303.75° 1,028 2.4% 6.34 6.09 0.116 0.0044 303.75° - 326.25° 3,925 9.2% 6.50 6.27 0.067 0.0000 326.25° - 348.75° 9,870 23.2% 8.26 7.94 0.074 0.0000 0 2 4 6 8 10 0 20 40 60 80 100 Vertical Wind Shear Profile, All Sectors Mean Wind Speed (m/s) Measured data Power law fit (alpha = 0.110) Log law fit (z0 = 0.00268 m) Point Hope Wind Resource Report Page 10 Extreme Winds Although thirteen months of data is minimal for calculation of extreme wind probability, use of a modified Gumbel distribution analysis, based on monthly maximum winds vice annual maximum winds, yields more realistic results. Extreme wind analysis indicates a highly desirable situation in Point Hope: high mean wind speeds combined with low extreme wind speed probabilities. This may be explained by particular climactic aspects of Point Hope which include prominent coastal exposure, offshore wind conditions, and due to the extreme northerly latitude, lack of exposure to Gulf of Alaska storm winds. Industry standard reference of extreme wind is the 50 year 10-minute average probable wind speed, referred to as Vref. For Point Hope, this calculates to 32.1 m/s, below the threshold of International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) 61400-1, 3rd edition criteria for a Class III site. Note that Class III extreme wind classification is the lowest defined and all wind turbines are designed for this wind regime. Extreme wind speed probability table Vref Gust IEC 61400-1, 3rd ed. Period (years)(m/s) (m/s) Class Vref, m/s 2 24.8 29.6 I 50.0 10 28.4 33.9 II 42.5 15 29.4 35.0 III 37.5 30 30.9 36.8 S designer- specified5032.1 38.2 100 33.6 40.1 average gust factor:1.19 Extreme wind speed probability graph 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Period, years (m/s) (m/s) Point Hope Wind Resource Report Page 11 Temperature and Density Point Hope experiences cool summers and very cold winters. The result is high air density. Calculated air density during the met tower test period exceeds standard air density for a sea level elevation (1.225 Kg/m3) by eight percent. This is advantageous in wind power operations as wind turbines produce more power at low temperatures (high air density) than at standard temperature and density. Temperature and density table Temperature Density Month Mean Min Max Mean Min Max (°C) (°C) (°C) (kg/m³) (kg/m³) (kg/m³) Jan -20.8 -34.3 -9.7 1.399 1.339 1.477 Feb -18.1 -33.4 -1.2 1.384 1.297 1.472 Mar -19.7 -34.6 -0.8 1.393 1.295 1.479 Apr -9.5 -25.4 4.0 1.339 1.273 1.424 May -1.6 -13.1 7.1 1.299 1.259 1.357 Jun 3.9 -3.1 14.6 1.274 1.226 1.306 Jul 9.4 2.0 25.2 1.248 1.182 1.282 Aug 8.3 2.1 15.0 1.254 1.224 1.282 Sep 3.8 -5.3 11.0 1.274 1.242 1.317 Oct -0.3 -10.5 7.5 1.293 1.257 1.343 Nov -12.6 -31.7 -3.9 1.354 1.310 1.461 Dec -11.4 -28.7 1.0 1.349 1.287 1.443 Annual -5.7 -34.6 25.2 1.322 1.182 1.479 Monthly temperature boxplot Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ann -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 Monthly Statistics for Temperature max daily high mean daily low min Point Hope Wind Resource Report Page 12 Air density DMap Wind Speed Scatterplot The wind speed versus temperature scatterplot below indicates that a substantial percentage of wind in Point Hope coincides with very cold temperatures, as one would expect give the location on the Chukchi Sea coast. However, during the met tower test periods, temperatures did not fall below -40°C. Other winters may see colder temperatures, but it is likely that temperatures colder than -40°C are infrequent and short duration in Point Hope. This compares to relatively nearby Wainwright which recorded a number of sub-minus 40°C temperature readings. Wind speed versus temperature scatterplot -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 0 5 10 15 20 25 Speed 30 B vs. Temperature, All Sectors, Speed 30 B 0 m/s - 25 m/s Temperature (°C) Point Hope Wind Resource Report Page 13 Wind Direction Wind frequency rose data indicates highly directional winds from the north and southeast. Power density rose data (representing the power in the wind) indicates power winds are strongly directional, from 345°T to 025°T and to a lesser extent from 130°T. Calm frequency (percent of time that winds at the 30 meter level are less than 3.5 m/s) was 20 percent during the met tower test period. Wind frequency rose Mean value rose Wind energy rose Scatterplot rose Point Hope Wind Resource Report Page 14 Wind density roses by month Turbulence Turbulence intensity at the Point Hope test site is well within acceptable standards with an IEC 61400-1, 3rd edition (2005) classification of turbulence category C, which is the lowest defined. Turbulence intensity, all wind sectors 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 Turbulence Intensity at 30 m, All Sectors Wind Speed (m/s) Representative TI IEC Category A IEC Category B IEC Category C Point Hope Wind Resource Report Page 15 Turbulence intensity, north (prevailing) wind sector Turbulence intensity by direction Turbulence table Midpoint Bin Endpoints Records In Bin Standard Deviation RepresentativeLower Upper Mean Peak (m/s) (m/s) (m/s) TI of TI TI TI 1 0.5 1.5 1,613 0.371 0.165 0.583 1.000 2 1.5 2.5 3,307 0.180 0.095 0.301 0.895 3 2.5 3.5 5,016 0.116 0.055 0.186 0.593 4 3.5 4.5 5,796 0.091 0.043 0.147 0.475 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 Turbulence Intensity at 30 m, 337.5° - 22.5° Wind Speed (m/s) Representative TI IEC Category A IEC Category B IEC Category C 0°15° 30° 45° 60° 75° 90° 105° 120° 135° 150° 165°180°195° 210° 225° 240° 255° 270° 285° 300° 315° 330°345° 0.06 0.12 0.18 Point Hope Wind Resource Report Page 16 5 4.5 5.5 6,124 0.079 0.036 0.125 0.673 6 5.5 6.5 5,779 0.075 0.033 0.118 0.633 7 6.5 7.5 5,779 0.072 0.028 0.107 0.412 8 7.5 8.5 4,680 0.071 0.027 0.105 0.360 9 8.5 9.5 3,924 0.072 0.023 0.101 0.309 10 9.5 10.5 3,349 0.071 0.021 0.099 0.414 11 10.5 11.5 2,421 0.072 0.020 0.097 0.390 12 11.5 12.5 1,906 0.072 0.018 0.095 0.198 13 12.5 13.5 1,438 0.073 0.017 0.095 0.244 14 13.5 14.5 1,207 0.073 0.014 0.092 0.188 15 14.5 15.5 1,062 0.073 0.015 0.093 0.230 16 15.5 16.5 662 0.073 0.016 0.094 0.151 17 16.5 17.5 533 0.074 0.017 0.096 0.211 18 17.5 18.5 343 0.076 0.017 0.097 0.196 19 18.5 19.5 250 0.076 0.016 0.096 0.128 20 19.5 20.5 130 0.074 0.016 0.094 0.114 21 20.5 21.5 75 0.080 0.017 0.102 0.116 22 21.5 22.5 52 0.082 0.015 0.101 0.111 23 22.5 23.5 48 0.071 0.016 0.091 0.104 24 23.5 24.5 28 0.065 0.010 0.078 0.087 25 24.5 25.5 19 0.065 0.009 0.076 0.082 26 25.5 26.5 12 0.057 0.010 0.070 0.076 27 26.5 27.5 6 0.055 0.012 0.070 0.074 28 27.5 28.5 1 0.043 0.000 0.043 0.043 Airport ASOS Data In 2005, Alaska Energy Authority (AEA) analyzed the wind resource at all Automated Weather Observing Station (AWOS) and Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) sites in Alaska. At most stations, AWOS/ASOS data has been collected for twenty-five or more years. The Point Hope Airport (ICAO station identifier: PAPO) AWOS has been in place since 1990. The AEA report documents data from the AWOS sensor, which is 10 meters above ground level. To compare this data to the met tower upper sensor height of 30 meters, the data was extrapolated with a power law exponent value of 0.110. Compared to the met tower 30 meter B anemometer, the AWOS data predicts an annual wind speed average approximately six percent higher. There may be a number of reasons for this discrepancy, including the more exposed location of the airport to northerly winds with less upwind terrain (that will cause some wind speed decrease due to drag) and extrapolation errors in translating the ten meter airport data to thirty meters. Comparison discrepancies aside, the Point Hope airport data confirms the robust wind resource recorded by the met tower. Point Hope Wind Resource Report Page 17 Airport/met tower data comparison Point Hope Airport AWOS, 10 m sensor Data adjusted to 30 m Met tower data, 30m B anem. Met tower/AWOS adj. data (m/s) (m/s) (m/s) (%) Jan 6.90 7.79 7.76 99.7% Feb 6.80 7.67 7.03 91.6% Mar 6.10 6.88 6.99 101.5% Apr 5.90 6.66 6.91 103.8% May 5.60 6.32 5.53 87.5% Jun 5.60 6.32 5.49 86.8% Jul 6.00 6.77 6.61 97.6% Aug 6.90 7.79 6.64 85.2% Sep 7.60 8.58 8.54 99.5% Oct 7.90 8.91 6.28 70.4% Nov 7.70 8.69 8.67 99.7% Dec 7.40 8.35 9.05 108.4% Annual 6.70 7.56 7.12 94.2%