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HomeMy WebLinkAboutHCCP to Donlin Creek Option 2003PIOTYOMWIY oF (TOCA Karl Reiche Subject:HCCP to Donlin Creek Option w/Karl,Art C.,Bernie,John Start:Wed 6/4/2003 2:30 PM End:Wed 6/4/2003 3:30 PM Show Time As:Tentative Recurrence:(none) Meeting Status:Not yet responded Agenda items: 1.Is there interest in and/or funding available to further study the HCCP to Donlin Creek option? 2.What could be the funding mechanisms? 2.If further study is warranted,can it be coordinated with DOT's current efforts to study a McGrath to Donlin Creek Road option? Karl Reiche ow LID From:John Wood Sent:Tuesday,May 27,2003 3:48 PM To:Karl Reiche Ce:Ron Miller Subject:FW:May Status Report-Industrial Roads Program Industrial Roads Program Repor...Good afternoon Karl! FYI.While I was reading this status report's concept of tying in limestone deposits near McGrath with the Donlin property thru the "Yukon River Roads and Ports"road network I couldnt help but think of the proposed intertie between Donlin and Healy.If this mining road was done in conjunction with the intertie,and had similar alignment for part of the way,there could be considerable cost savings to both projects.So I called Mike McKinnon and we brainstormed on the various suggested implications.In the end Mike offered to make his NW Plan contractor available for any investigations we might want to have made this summer wrt the intertie concept.Let me know if you want to discuss;this is interesting stuff!John -----Original Message----- From:Mike McKinnon [mailto:Mike_McKinnon@dot.state.ak.us] Sent:Friday,May 23,2003 3:15 PM To:John Mackinnon;Tara M Sweeney;Annette E Kreitzer;Jim Clark -Gov Off;Bill Noll;Al Clough;Cindy Roberts;Bob Walsh;William_Jeffress@gov.state.ak.us; Linda Shafer@gov.state.ak.us;Gary Schultz;Ruth Burnett;wdv@dnr.state.ak.us;Mdm@dnr.state.ak.us;Jeff Ottesen;Kerry Kirkpatrick;Mike Downing;'Nancy Slagle'; Poshard,Dennis;Ralph D Swarthout;Al Ewing;Arlene Thomas;Bertha Panigio;Harry Bader; Jack Phelps;Jeff Staser;John Wood;Jimmy Adams;Ken Taylor;Mac McLean;Patricia D. Miller;Rex Okakok;Ronald W Miller;Ross Schaeffer;'Stan Foo (E-mail)';Todd K. Sherwood;Tom H.Boutin;Tommy Olemaun;Yuri Morgan;ed_fisher@dol.state.ak.us;ernesta_ballard@dec.state.ak.us;tom_irwin@dnr.state.ak.us;sam|johnson@ak-prepared.com;jerry_koenig@akprepared.com;Ethan Birkholz;Ott,Martin;Aho,John/ANC;Dan Sterly;James Potts Subject:May Status Report-Industrial Roads Program The attached status report is provided for your review and comment. Thanks, Mike Karl Reiche From:Art Copoulos Sent:Thursday,May 08,2003 10:05 AM To:Ron Miller;Mike Barry Ce:'Dennis McCrohan (E-mail)';Karl Reiche;Bernie Smith Subject:HCCP to Donlin -Confidential Draft White Paper Ron and Mike, wy +} HCCP Power to Donlin Creek whi... Enclosed as requested is a White Paper on supplying HCCP Powerto Donlin Creek.Sorry it took so long but as you'll see |went into more detail than probably was needed.|!received help from Bernie on regulatory issues and the mine's needs and Dennis McCrohan on the economic model and analysis. This may not be what you want because accomplishing what has been presented here may be impractical,or unrealistic - I'm not sure since I'm not that knowledgeable about developing and financing.However,|thought it would be worthwhile to present an optimistic version for your review.As noted in the white paper under these assumptions,this option would likely be unattractive to develop and additional Federal funding,lower financing costs,partial debt forgiveness,etc.,may be needed to make the project attractive.1 don't mean to suggest this can be "pulled-off",and |can make changes easily and can show it with a different set ofassumptionsifthisseemstoofar-fetched.There is a wide range of assumptions and uncertainty.|have also enclosed |a HCCP Power to ...___ Donlin Creek Ass... support information on assumptions and the economic model if you want to look closer at the details. | donlin creek option 1.xls (99 ... Please holler anytime with comments,questions,or changes. Art HCCP Power to Donlin Creek -CONFIDENTIAL DRAFT The Healy Clean Coal Project (HCCP)has a capacity of approximately 54 MW and currently sits idle.The proposed Donlin Creek mine is projected to need 60 MW at full operational capacity and development is contingent on having a low cost,reliable source of electric power.The mine owners have made no commitments to develop the mine and are conducting feasibility studies. The cost of a 375-mile transmission line and 8 remote substations is an economic barrier to a conventional sale of HCCP power at firm or non-firm rates to the mine via a utility. However,it may be possible to leverage construction of the transmission line and substations if HCCP power were sold at wholesale rates direct to the mine,excess HCCP power were sold at economy energy prices to railbelt utilities,and Federal funding were obtained for the 8 remote substations enroute. A possible means to accomplish this would be for AIDEA to finance a developer (or utility)to build a transmission line to Donlin Creek and operate HCCP.The developer would pay back AIDEA for transmission line financing costs and original HCCP debt using revenue from power sales.While there are many uncertainies,a preliminary economic model indicates a positive NPV over the life of the project of $10 MM for the developer and $6 MM for AIDEA,with the following key assumptions: e HCCP energy is sold direct to the mine for initial price of 8 cents/kwh and excess energy is sold at an economy energy price of 4.6 cents/kwh on the railbelt,with both escalating 3%annually. A $231 MM transmission line is constructed direct from HCCP to Donlin Creek. 8 remote substations en-route are Federally funded and constructed separately. Developer takes all operating profit and assumes risk of transmission line and HCCP. Developer repays entire AIDEA debt on HCCP and a 1/2 %premium on new capital, with AIDEA taking profit on financing and HCCP debt recovery. e $6.621M for HCCP Limited Retrofit from AIDEA cash,Transmission line O&M $1.1 M/yr.,and 2.5%Transmission line losses. e +*23 year mine life until 2029,and 37 year HCCP life until 2035,discount rate of 5%. Under these assumptions,this option would likely be unattractive to develop since the investment return is low and cash flow is negative until 2016.Additional Federal funding,lower financing costs,partial debt forgiveness,etc.,may be needed to make the project attractive.Also,major issues would need to be defined or resolved including negotiating power sales agreements,obtaining Federal funding for substations,resolving issues related to HCCP operation and plant separation,firming up costs,financing,etc. As a certificated utility AIDEA can sell wholesale power to another utility or direct to the mine since currently the mine is not in a pre-defined utility service area.Middle a) Kuskokwim Electric Coop has applied to the RCA to add Donlin Creek to its service 6 area.Other entities may submit a concurrent application to preempt competing proposals by showing adequate justification that electric service could be provided at a lower cost. Assumptions for HCCP Power to Donlin Creek White Paper A listing and discussion of key assumptions is provided as support for the White Paper.A number of assumptions are used in the NPV analysis as the white paper represents only a "preliminary look"at the options.A more detailed study of assumptions is needed to more accurately define the results. Transmission and Substation Construction Costs:Construction of an approximately 385 mile transmission line would be required to deliver HCCP Power to the mine.Based on recent Northern Intertie construction costs and other estimates,the cost of an AC line is conservatively estimated at $600,000.00/mile or approximately $231 million. Substation costs were estimated in a recent study sponsored by Nuvista Power and Light (the Bettine study)at an additional $40 million assuming eight local villages along the route are tied in.A DC system could realize some savings in terms of reduced construction costs and lower line losses,but the increased substation cost to tie-in 8 local villages would be expected to offset the savings. Route selection:The Bettine study identified a route from Nenana to Donlin Creek as the likely route for power supplied from the Northern region.The route crosses State, Federal,and Native lands,but avoids National Park/Preserve and Wildlife Refuge designated lands.An alternative route adds another 15 miles of line to avoid crossing Federal lands.The HCCP direct to Donlin Creek Transmission Line route option was not studied in the Bettine study.The feasibility of this option would need to be evaluated to determine if it is in fact practical.The concept would be to connect up with the option #1 route at some point West of Healy.It is believed that the route could skirt around the North boundary of Denali National Park and may even be less than 385 miles.The obvious advantage of this route is that it allows direct power sales to the mine,at a higher price,helping offset the cost of constructing the transmission line.Securing right-of-way and environmental permits would be a major technical challenge for any route. A direct route avoids problems related to energy transfer limitations,wheeling,and spinning reserve that would arise if power were wheeled across GVEA's line between Healy and Fairbanks.However,these issues would have to be addressed for economy energy sales. Competing Power Supply Options:The Bettine study evaluated the possibility of having GVEA supply power from Nenana,but concluded that GVEA needs additional power generation resources to be the energy supplier for this option.According to the Bettine study,"Golden Valley does not have enough generation capacity to reliably serve an additional 60 megawatts of load."Other power supply options such as a transmission line from the Anchorage area or a gas pipeline from the Cook Inlet,as well as the Bethel option have been discussed.The Bettine study identified a coal-fired power plant in Bethel and a transmission line from Bethel as "the preferred alternative to supply power to the Calista region and represents a reasonable compromise for providing power to both the Donlin Creek Mine project and to the villages and communities in the Calista region."As a follow-on to that study,the Denali Commission recently awarded a 1.5 million grant to further evaluate this option. 2016,afterwhich there would be a capacity shortfall based on current load projectionsby_the mine.Some uncertainty however exists with regard to the mines actual long-term power needs.Demand from the mine and 8 villages is as follows from the Bettine study with corresponding HCCP output: Capacity/Demand:;HCCP's capacity would significantly exceed the mines needs until Q (h 4)"yy Year 2006-2010 201]-2015 2016-2029 Kwh demand (TASS924E NY 306,138,754 '594,586,553(Bettine study)(yHCCPoutput174,559,248 A]366,138,754|416,275,000 Sustainability:The O&M cost on the new transmission line have been optimistically assumed at approximately 1 million per year.The O&M is likely to increase over time and without additional load growth in the region,long-term sustainability of the line would be a challenge. HCCP Base Case Economic Assumptions and references: 2004 Long term Parameter Assumption Assumption Coal cost $17.31/ton 2004 escalated Limestone cost $121/ton.$102/ton escalated Ash disposal cost $5.98/ton 2004 escalated Fuel oil cost $.80/gal 2004 escalated Energy sales rate $4.60 c/kwh 2004 escalated Capacity rate $O/kw 2004 escalated Labor escalation 2.50%Constant rate Materials escalation 2.00%Constant rate Raw materials escalation 1.25%Constant rate Operator fee %oflabor 15.00%Constant rate R&R fund %of Materials 25.00%Constant rate Sales rate escalation 3.00%|Constant rate Capacity rate escalation 3.00%Constant rate Original principle $2,224,000 Variable to 2024 Original interest $3,872,022 Variable to 2024 New debt $6,662,110 Nil New interest 0%Constant rate Discount rate 5%Constant rate Capacity 54,000 KW Constant Capacity factor 65%88% Heat rate 12,800 12,500 Btu/kwh Btu/kwh Coal HHV 6760 Constant Btu/lbm Ash 13%ConstantLimestoneusenet0.01 Constant coal Fuel oil use 74,000 gal.Constant Plant labor 45 men 35 men Testing labor 6 men Nil Home office labor 5 men 5 men Equipment and supplies $2,068,000 2004 escalated Travel and administrative $1,266,000 2004 escalated Reference UCM draft coal contract. Cost records from 1998 and 1999 operation. UCM draft coal contract. Cost records from 1998 and 1999 operation. GVEA RCA filings Revenues based upon energy use only. GVEA cost records from 1994 to 2000 GVEA cost records from 1994 to 2000 UCM cost records for 1998 and 1999 operation. AIDEA estimate AIDEA estimate AIDEA estimate AIDEA estimate AIDEA estimates based upon bond projections. AIDEA estimates based upon bond projections. Harris Group estimates Assumes funding from cash reserves over 20 yrs. AIDEA estimate Operation records from 1998 and 1999, Harris Group estimate and 98/99 performance. Operation records from 1998 and 1999. UCM draft coal contract. UCM draft coal contract. Operation records from 1998 and 1999. Operation records from 1998 and 1999. Operation records from 1998 and 1999. Operation records from 1998 and 1999. Operation records from 1998 and 1999. Operation records from 1998 and 1999. Operation records from 1998 and 1999. 5%AIDEA loan to developer,and 4.5%AIDEA finance cost,substations seperate 37 Year,8 c/kwh in 2006,88%CF in 2006,T line $231M,developer pays all debt. $6.6M LR AIDEA cash,T Line O&M $1061K/yr,T Line losses 2.5%for firm energy Year Transmission Line Losses % Coal $/ton Limestone $/ton Ash $/ton Fuel Oil $/gal Firm Energy Rate $/kwh Capacity Rate $/kw Labor Escalation % Materials Escalation % Raw Materials Escalation % Operator Fee %of Labor R&R Fund %of Materials Energy Rate Escalation % Capacity Rate Escalation % Non firm energy rate $/kwh Original Principle $ Original Interest $ New Debt $ New Interest New Loan Service $ Discount Rate % New Interest % New Debt Payment % Limited Retrofit $ Limited Retrofit Interest % Limited Retrofit Debt Service $ 2004 0.00 331050 2005 2.50 17.53 102.00 6.05 0.81 0.0000 0 2.50 6621000 0.00 331050 8-May-03 HCCP Financial Analysis for Donlin Creek Option 1 2006 2007 2008 Unit Cost Assumptions 2.50 2.50 2.50 17.75 17.97 18.19 103.28 104.57 105.87 6.13 6.21 6.28 0.82 0.83 0.84 0.0800 0.0824 0.0849 0 0 0 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.00 2.00 2.00 1.25 1.25 1.25 15.00 15.00 15.00 25.00 25.00 25.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 0.0488 0.0503 0.0518 Debt Assumptions 2470000 2590000 2725000 3636772 3507035 3367517 231000000 231000000 231000000 5.00 5.00 5.00 17125606 17125606 17125606 5.00 5.00 5.00 4.50 4.50 4.50 16327656 16327656 16327656 6621000 6621000 6621000 0.00 0.00 0.00 331050 331050 331050 2870000 3220648 231000000 5.00 17125606 5.00 4.50 16327656 6621000 0.00 331050 Year Design Capacity Factor % Capacity kw Firm Capacity Factor % Heat Rate Btu/kwh Coal HHV Btu/tb Ash % Limestone Ib/Ib coal Non Firm Capacity Factor %r Firm Energy Rate MWH Coal Rate ton Limestone ton Ash/Limestone/Water ton Fuel gal. Non Firm Energy Rate MWH Firm Energy $ Capacity $ Non Firm Energy $ Total Revenue $ Plant Labor $ Testing Labor $ Home Office Labor $ Equipment and Supplies $ R&R Fund $ Travel and Administrative $ Operator Fee $ 2004 13055904 13055904 349882 3499 53882 74000 378432 0 0 17930108 17930108 2006 2007 2008 2009 Process Assumptions 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 54000 54000 54000 54000 0.369 0.369 0.369 0.369 12500 12500 412500 12500 6760 6760 6760 6760 13 13 13 13 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.511 0.511 0.511 0.511 Process Calculations 170188 170188 170188 170188 380835 380835 380835 380835 3808 3808 3808 3808 58649 58649 58649 58649 74000 74000 74000 74000 241723 241723 241723 241723 Revenue Calculations 13615037 14023488 14444193 14877519 0 0 0 0 11796442 12150336 12514846 12890291 25411480 26173824 26959039 27767810 Production Expenses 4203239 4098147 4200601 4305616 0 0 0 0 §0614 51879 53176 54505 2151547 2194578 2238470 2283239 537887 548645 559617 570810 570638 582051 593692 605566 630486 614722 630090 645842 Transmission Line O&M $ Year Fixed Cost $ Coal $ Limestone $ Ash Disposal $ Fuel Oil $ Variable Cost $ Total Production Cost $ Unit Cost $/kwh with debt $/kwh Net Operating Income $ Original Principle $ Original Interest $ New Debt and interest $ Total Debt Service $ debt,$/kwh Net Profit $ Operator Fee $ Net Profit an Io2004 10093674 4651355 325138 247460 59200 5283152 15376827 0.0542 0.0757 -2320923 2240000 3872022 0 6112022 0.0215 -8432945 332782 -8100162 2005 8289653 6132157 356879 326241 59940 6875217 15164870 0.0401 0.0562 2765239 2350000 3757272 0 6107272 0.0161 -3342033 657929 -2684104 1061000 2006 9205411 6758095 393308 359542 60689 7571633 16777044 0.0407 0.0971 8634436 2470000 3636772 17125606 23232378 0.0564 -14597942 630486 -13967456 4087525 2007 9177547 6842571 398224 364036 61448 7666279 16843825 0.0409 0.0973 9329999 Capital Expenses 2590000 3507035 17125606 23222641 0.0564 -13892642 614722 -13277920 1114713 2008 9390359 6928103 403202 368586 62216 7762107 17152466 0.0416 0.0980 9806573 2725000 3367517 17125606 23218123 0.0564 Net Profit -13411550 630090 -12781460 1142581 2009 9608159 7014704 408242 373194 62994 7859133 17467292 0.0424 0.0988 10300518 2870000 3220648 17125606 23216254 0.0564 -12915736 645842 -12269894 AIDEA New Debt $ AIDEA Loan $ Net Earnings Limited Retrofit Debt Service $ Net Earnings and Interest 0 0 0 331050 -331050 0 0 0 331050 -331050 16327656 17125606 797950 331050 466900 16327656 17125606 797950 331050 466900 16327656 17125606 797950 331050 466900 16327656 17125606 797950 331050 466900 2010 2011 2.50 2.50 18.65 18.88 108.54 109.89 6.44 6.52 0.86 0.87 0.0900 0.0927 0 0 2.50 2.50 2.00 2.00 1.25 1.25 15.00 15.00 25.00 25.00 3.00 3.00 2.00 2.00 0.0549 0.0566 3020000 3180000 3066035 2903285 231000000 231000000 5.00 5.00 17125606 17125606 5.00 5.00 4.50 4.50 16327656 16327656 6621000 6621000 0.00 0.00 331050 331050 3345000 2732004 231000000 5.00 17125606 5.00 4.50 16327656 6621000 0.00 331050 Cost Analysis without DOE Contributions 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Unit Cost Assumptions 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 19.36 19.60 19.84 20.09 20.34 20.60 112.66 114.07 115.49 116.94 118.40 119.88 6.69 6.77 6.86 -6.94 7.03 7.12 0.89 0.91 0.92 0.93 0.94 0.95 0.0984 0.1013 0.1044 0.1075 0.1107 0.1141 0 0 0 0 0 0 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 25.00 25.00 25.00 25.00 25.00 25.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 0.0600 0.0618 0.0637 0.0656 0.0676 0.0696 Debt Assumptions 3520000 3705000 3900000 4100000 4315000 4540000 2552678 2364828 2167098 1959098 1740308 1510078 231000000 231000000 231000000 231000000 231000000 231000000 5.00 5.00 §.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 17125606 17125606 17125606 17125606 17125606 17125606 5.00 §.00 5.00 §.00 §.00 5.00 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 16327656 16327656 16327656 16327656 16327656 16327656 6621000 6621000 6621000 6621000 6621000 6621000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 331050 331050 331050 331050 331050 331050 2010 0.88 54000 0.369 12500 6760 13 0.01 0.511 "170188 380835 3808 58649 74000 241723 15323844 0 13277000 28600844 4413256 0 55868 2328904 582226 617677 661988 2011 0.88 54000 0.774 12500 6760 13 0.01 0.106 356980 376407 3764 57967 74000 50142 33106979 0 2836757 35943736 4523587 0 57265 2375482 593870 630031 678538 2012 0.88 54000 0.774 12500 6760 13 0.01 0.106 356980 376407 3764 57967 74000 50142 34100188 0 2921860 37022048 4636677 0 58696 2422991 605748 642631 695502 2013 0.88 54000 0.774 12500 6760 ©13 0.01 0.106 356980 376407 3764 57967 74000 50142 35123194 0 3009516 38132709 4752594 0 60164 2471451 617863 655484 712889 2014 0.88 54000 0.774 12500 6760 13 0.01 0.106 356980 376407 3764 57967 74000 50142 36176890 0 3099801 39276691 4871409 0 61668 2520880 630220 668594 730711 2015 0.88 54000 0.774 12500 6760 13 0.01 0.106 356980 376407 3764 57967 74000 50142 37262196 0 3192795 40454991 4993194 0 63210 2571298 642824 681966 748979 2016 2017 2018 Process Assumptions 0.88 0.88 0.88 54000 54000 54000 0.88 0.88 0.88 12500 12500 12500 6760 6760 6760 13 13 13 0.01 0.01 0.01 0 0 0 Process Calculations 405868 405868 405868 375248 375248 375248 3752 3752 3752 57788 57788 57788 74000 74000 74000 0 0 0 Revenue Calculations 43636247 44945334 46293694 0 0 0 0 0 0 43636247 44945334 46293694 Production Expenses 5118024 5245975 5377124 0 0 0 64790 66410 68070 2622724 2675178 2728682 655681 668795 682170 695605 709517 723707 767704 786896 806569 1171145 2010 9831065 7102388 413345 377859 63781 7957372 17788437 0.0432 0.0995 10812407 3020000 3066035 17125606 23211641 0.0564 -12399234 661988 -11737246 1200424 2011 10059197 7107552 413645 378133 64578 7963909 18023106 0.0443 0.1013 17920630 3180000 2903285 17125606 23208891 0.0570 -5288261 678538 -4609723 1230435 2012 10292680 7196396 418816 382860 65386 8063458 18356138 0.0451 0.1021 18665910 3345000 2732004 17125606 _ 23202610 0.0570 -4536700 695502 -3841199 1261196 2013 10531641 7286351 424051 387646 66203 8164251 18695892 0.0459 0.1029 19436818 3520000 2552678 17125606 23198284 0.0570 -3761466 712889 -3048577 1292725 2014 10776208 7377431 429352 392491 67030 8266304 19042512 0.0468 0.1037 20234179 3705000 2364828 17125606 23195434 0.0570 -2961255 730711 2230544 1325044 2015 11026514 7469649 434719 397397 67868 8369633 19396147 0.0476 0.1046 21058844 3900000 2167098 17125606 23192704 0.0570 -2133860 748979 -1384881 1358170 2016 11282697 7539732 438797 401126 68717 8448372 19731069 0.0486 0.1057 23905178 Capital Expenses 4100000 1959098 17125606 23184704 0.0571 720474 767704 1488177 1392124 2017 11544894 7633979 444282 406140 69576 8553977 20098871 0.0495 0.1066 24846463 4315000 1740308 17125606 23180914 0.0571 Net Profit 1665549 786896 2452445 1426927 2018 11813249 7729404 449836 411217 70445 8660902 20474151 0.0504 0.1075 25819543 4540000 1510078 17125606 23175684 0.0571 2643860 806569 3450428 16327656 17125606 797950 331050 466900 16327656 17125606 797950 331050 466900 16327656 17125606 797950 331050 466900 16327656 17125606 797950 331050 466900 16327656 17125606 797950 331050 466900 16327656 17125606 797950 331050 466900 16327656 17125606 797950 331050 466900 16327656 17125606 797950 331050 466900 16327656 17125606 797950 331050 466900 2019 2020 2021 2022 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 © 20.86 21.12 21.38 21.65 121.38 122.89 124.43 125.98 7.20 7.29 7.39 7.48 0.96 0.98 0.99 1.00 0.1175 0.1210 0.1246 0.1284 0 0 0 0 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 25.00 25.00 25.00 25.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 0.0717 0.0738 0.0760 0.0783 4775000 5025000 5290000 9965000 1266694 1009444 738675 453731 231000000 231000000 231000000 231000000 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 17125606 17125606 17125606 17125606 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 16327656 16327656 16327656 16327656 6621000 6621000 6621000 6621000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 331050 331050 331050 0 2023 3.00 2.00 0.0807 5860000 153825 231000000 5.00 17125606 5.00 4.50 16327656 6621000 0.00 0 231000000 5.00 17125606 5.00 4.50 16327656 231000000 5.00 17125606 5.00 4.50 16327656 2026 2027 2028 Unit Cost Assumptions 2.50 2.50 2.50 22.75 23.03 23.32 132.40 134.06 135.73 7.86 7.96 8.06 1.05 1.06 1.08 0.1445 0.1488 0.1533 0 0 0 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.00 2.00 2.00 1.25 1.25 1.25 15.00 15.00 15.00 25.00 25.00 25.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 0.0881 0.0908 0.0935 Debt Assumptions 0 0 0 0 0 0 231000000 231000000 231000000 5.00 5.00 5.00 17125606 17125606 17125606 5.00 5.00 5.00 4.50 4.50 4.50 16327656 16327656 16327656 405868 375248 3752 57788 74000 0 47682505 0 0 47682505 5511552 0 69771 2783256 695814 738181 826733 405868 375248 3752 57788 74000 0 49112980 0 0 49112980 5649341 0 71516 2838921 709730 752945 847401 405868 375248 3752 57788 74000 0 50586369 0 0 50586369 5790574 0 73304 2895699 723925 768004 868586 405868 375248 3752 57788 74000 0 52103961 0 0 52103961 5935339 0 75136 2953613 738403 783364 890301 405868 375248 3752 57788 74000 0 53667079 0 0 53667079 6083722 0 77015 3012685 753171 799031 912558 405868 375248 3752 57788 74000 0 55277092 0 0 55277092 6235815 0 78940 3072939 768235 815012 935372 405868 375248 3752 57788 74000 0 56935404 0 0 56935404 6391711 0 80914 3134398 783599 831312 958757 2026 2027 2028 Process Assumptions 0.88 0.88 0.88 54000 §4000 54000 0.88 0.88 0.88 12500 12500 12500 6760 6760 6760 13 13 13 0.01 0.01 0.01 0 0 0 Process Calculations 405868 405868 405868 375248 375248 375248 3752 3752 3752 57788 57788 57788 74000 74000 74000 0 0 0 Revenue Calculations 58643467 60402771 62214854 0 0 0 0 0 0 58643467 60402771 62214854 Production Expenses 6551503 6715291 6883173 0 0 0 82936 85010 87135 3197086 3261027 3326248 799271 815257 831562 847938 864897 882195 982726 1007294 1032476 1462600 2019 12087907 7826021 455459 416357 71326 8769163 20857070 0.0514 0.1085 26825435 4775000 1266694 17125606 23167300 0.0571 3658135 826733 4484867© 1499165 2020 12369019 7923846 461152 421561 72217 8878777 21247796 0.0524 0.1094 27865184 5025000 1009444 17125606 23160050 0.0571 4705134 847401 5552535 1536644 2021 12656736 8022895 466916 426831 73120 8989762 21646499 0.0533 0.1104 28939871 5290000 738675 17125606 23154281 0.0570 5785590 868586 6654176 1575060 2022 12951217 8123181 472753 432166 74034 9102134 22053351 0.0543 0.1114 30050610 5565000 453731 17125606 23144337 0.0570 6906273 890301 7796574 1614437 2023 13252620 8224721 478662 437568 74960 9215911 22468531 0.0554 0.1124 31198548 5860000 153825 17125606 23139431 0.0570 8059117 912558 8971676 1654798 2024 13561111 8327530 484646 443038 75897 9331110 22892221 0.0564 0.0986 32384871 0 0 17125606 17125606 0.0422 15259265 935372 16194637 1696168 2025 13876858 8431624 490704 448576 76845 9447749 23324607 0.0575 0.0997 33610798 0 0 17125606 17125606 0.0422 16485192 958757 17443949 1738572 2026 14200033 8537019 496837 454183 77806 9565845 23765878 0.0586 0.1008 34877588 Capital Expenses 0 0 17125606 17125606 0.0422 17751982 982726 18734708 1782036 2027 14530812 8643732 503048 459861 78778 9685419 24216231 0.0597 0.1019 36186540 0 0 17125606 17125606 0.0422 Net Profit 19060934 1007294 20068228 1826587 2028 14869377 8751778 509336 465609 79763 9806486 24675863 0.0608 0.1030 37538991 0 0 17125606 17125606 0.0422 20413385 1032476 21445861 16327656 17125606 797950 331050 466900 16327656 17125606 797950 331050 466900 16327656 17125606 797950 331050 466900 16327656 17125606 797950 0 797950 16327656 17125606 797950 0 797950 16327656 17125606 797950 0 797950 16327656 17125606 797950 0 797950 16327656 17125606 797950 0 797950 16327656 17125606 797950 0 797950 16327656 17125606 797950 0 797950 231000000 5.00 17125606 5.00 4.50 16327656 405868 375248 3752 57788 74000 0 64081299 0 0 64081299 7055253 0 89313 3392773 848193 899839 1058288 384870 3849 59270 74000 416275 0 0 41295831 41295831 7231634 0 91546 3460628 865157 917836 1084745 2031 384870 3849 59270 74000 416275 0 0 42534706 42534706 7412425 0 93835 3529841 882460 936193 1111864 384870 3849 59270 74000 416275 0 0 43810747 43810747 7597735 0 96181 3600438 900109 954916 1139660 384870 3849 59270 74000 416275 0 0 45125070 45125070 7787679 0 98585 3672447 918112 974015 1168152 384870 3849 59270 74000 416275 0 0 46478822 46478822 7982371 0 101050 3745896 936474 993495 1197356 384870 3849 59270 74000 416275 0 0 47873187 47873187 8181930 0 103576 3820813 955203 1013365 1227290 1872252 1919058 1967035 2016211 2066616 2118281 2171238 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 15215911 15570605 15933652 16305251 16685605 17074922 17473416 8861176 9201990 9317015 9433478 9551396 9670788 9791673 §15703 535537 542232 549010 555872 562821 569856 471429 489561 495680 501876 508150 514502 520933 80760 81770 82792 83827 84875 85936 87010 9929067 10308858 10437719 10568190 10700292 10834046 10969472 25144978 25879463 26371371 26873441 27385897 27908968 28442887 0.0620 0.0622 0.0634 0.0646 0.0658 0.0670 0.0683 0.1041 0.0622 0.0634 0.0646 0.0658 0.0670 0.0683 38936321 15416368 16163336 16937307 17739173 18569854 19430299 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 17125606 0 0 0 0 0 0 17125606 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0422 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 21810715 15416368 16163336 16937307 17739173 18569854 19430299 1058288 1084745 1111864 1139660 1168152 1197356 1227290 22869003 16501114 17275199 18076967 18907324 19767209 20657589 16327656 17125606 797950 0 797950