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HomeMy WebLinkAboutDevelopment Potential of the Makushin Geothermal Reservoir 1985 1Alaska Power Authority DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL OF THE MAKUSHIN GEOTHERMAL RESERVOIR UNALASKA ISLAND,ALASKA David Denig-Chakroff,John W.Reeder,Michael J.Economides 1985 INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM ON GEOTHERMAL ENERGY .")|KAILUA-KONA,HAWAIll August 29,1985 (Millions)NETPRESENTVALUE100 SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS LOW GROWTH SCENARIO 3.5%DISCOUNT RATE en 4.5%DISCOUNT RATE t diesel binary C=]Low total flow diesel binary FUEL ESCALATION RATEMEDIUM HIGH l total flow VALUE(Millions)NETPRESENT120 110 100 SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS MODERATE GROWTH SCENARIO 3.5%DISCOUNT RATE 4.5%DISCOUNT RATE 5 diesel binary total flow diesel binary'total flow FUEL ESCALATION RATE LOW MEDIUM HIGH (Millions)NETPRESENTVALUESENSITIVITY ANALYSIS HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO 210 200 - 190 -- 180 - 170 - 150 += 140 4.-130 ---- 120 - 110 fo 100 4. | 3.5%DISCOUNT RATE 4.57%DISCOUNT RATE wy diesel binary cj Low total flow diesel FUEL ESCALATION RATE MEDIUM binary HIGH rs a"rn total flow DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL OF THE MAKUSHIN GEOTHERMAL RESERVOIR UNALASKA ISLAND,ALASKA - David Denig-Chakroff,John W.Reeder,Michael J.Economides 1985 INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM ON GEOTHERMAL ENERGY KAILUA-KONA,HAWAII August 29,1985 UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POPULATION HISTORIC AND FORECAST TRENDS 1965-2005 HISTORIC FORECAST 13.0 12.0- 11.0 - 10.0- 9.0 8.0- 7.0 - 6.0 -POPULATION(Thousands)5.0 - 4.0 + 3.0- 2.0-1.0 -aa 0.0 Prd €ft Pr Po ioet by tit to robe rt Pr bot to br bP tot tt bo)tt bi td 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 e000 2005 YEAR --LOW GROWTH --MODERATE GROWTH --HIGH GROWTH (MILLIONPOUNDS)COMMERCIAL FISHERIES LANDINGS UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR 1978-1984 ta04 |136.8 136.5 73.0 47.0 t "t 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 'YEAR 1981 1982 1983 1984 ENERGYUSE(MWh-yr)(Thousands)ELECTRIC LOAD FORECAST 1985-2005 100 LOW GROWTH SCENARIO 90- 80- 70- 60- 50- 40- 30- .TOTAL LOAD 20 -INDUSTRIAL LOAD 10 + NON-INDUSTRIAL LOAD 1990 1995 2000 YEAR 2005 ENERGYUSE(MWhv-yr)(Thousands)ELECTRIC LOAD FORECAST 1985-2005 MODERATE GROWTH SCENARIO 100 30 4 TOTAL LOAD INDUSTRIAL LOAD NON-INDUSTRIAL LOAD 0 LU LJ v La T Tv S Ly LJ |Li Li Lj LJ t ad Oe 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 YEAR ENERGYUSE(MWh-yr)(Thousands)100 ELECTRIC LOAD FORECAST 1985-2005 HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO INDUSTRIAL LOAD NON-INDUSTRIAL LOAD 1995 2000 2005 COINCIDENTPEAK(MW)ELECTRIC DEMAND FORECAST 1985-2005 40 UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR 35 30- 25= 20- HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO 15 - MODERATE GROWTH SCENARIO LOW GROWTH SCENARIO10- 1985 1990 | 1995 2000 2005 (Millions)NETPRESENTVALUE180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR COST OF OPTIMUM POWER PLANS MODERATE GROWTH SCENARIObinary total flow OPTIMUM POWER PLANS COST/COST RATIOS 1.68 1.25 081 LSOO IVWNUREHLOAS' LSOo IdSdId HIGH oSEi [<3]eea9aoa&[|fe]ids) LOW E°=32bP«&a