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HomeMy WebLinkAboutReconnaissance Study of the Kisaraluk River Hydroelectric Power Potential & Alternate Electric Resources in the Bethel Area 1980UWftARALIK CONTRACT NO. 9703 This report has been prepared by Frank J. Bettine, E.I.T Carl H. Steeby, P.E. Dora L. Gropp, P.E. Information on Geothermal Energy Resources and Hydroelectric Site Geology was provided by C. C. Hawley Associates ---,-- ;I~/ :. l c. d... RECONNAISSANCE STUDY OF THE KISARALIK RIVER HYDROELECTRIC POWER POTENTIAL AND ALTERNATE ELECTRIC ENERGY RESOURCES IN THE BETHEL AREA Prepared for the ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY Prepared by ROBERT W. RETHERFORD ASSOCIATES Consulting Engineers ARCTIC DISTRICT OF INTERNATIONAL ENGINEERING CO., INC. P.O. BOX 6410 Anchorage, Alaska 99502 March 1980 Bethel -Table of Contents APAI0/C3 I. II. III. IV. V. TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY EXISTING SYSTEMS AND FUTURE ELECTRIC POWER REQUIREMENTS PAGE 1-3 II-I A. Existing Facilities 11-1 B. Historical Information 11-1 C. Future Electric Energy and Demand Projections 11-2 l. 2. Bethel Small Communities ELECTRIC ENERGY RESOURCES A. B. Introduction Energy Resources 1. Hydroelectric Potential~ 2. Coal/Wood Energy Conversion & Resources 3. Geotherma 1 Potentia 1 4. Wind Potential -Bethel Area 5. Transmission Interties 6. Conservation ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS A. Introduction B. Alternate Development Plans C. Evaluations and Conclusions RECOMMENDATIONS A. Introduction B. Development of the Kisaralik River Hydroelectric Site - i - II-2 II-6 III-l III -1 III-l III -2 II 1-26 III-36 III-47 I II -64 II 1-68 IV-l IV-l IV-3 IV-6 V-I V-I V-I Bethel -Table of Contents APAI0/C4 APPENDICES A. TECHNICAL DATA 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. Single Wire Ground Return Transmission Distribution and Transmission Line Load Limitations Phase -and Frequency Conversion in Power Transmission Economic Distance for SWGR Controlled Electric Heat - A Potential Market for Unused Energy from Hydro Electric Power Project Nulato Coal Field Reconaissance Report Listings of Biomass Energy Conversion Processes Kisaralik Hydroelectric Project Hydrological Analysis B. COST ESTIMATES 1. 2. 3. Transmission Systems Wind Generating Equipment Frequency and Phase Conversion Equipment C. ECONOMIC EVALUATION -DETAIL SHEETS 1. List of A lternat i ves 11. Parameters Used for Economi c Eva 1 uat ion II 1. Exp 1 anat i on of Computer Pri ntouts D. ENVIRONMENTAL AND OTHER COMMENTS 1. Letter From State of Alaska - Department of Fish & Game 2. Letter from BLM -Land Status -ii - PAGE A-3 A-17 A-23 A-29 A-37 A-43 A-51 A-57 B-1 B-3 B-3 C-l C-l C-6 ",. • • ., • .. .. -• .' • -.. ., Bethel -Table of Contents APAI0/C5 FIGURE I-I 1-2 II-I II-2 II-3 II-4 II-5 II-6 II-7 II-8 II-9 I 1-10 II-ll 11-12 II-13 11-14 II I-I III-2 III-3 III-3.1 III-3.2 III-3.3 III-4 III-5 III-6 III-7 III-8 II 1-9 II 1-10 IV-l to IV-4 A-l.l A-4.1 LIST OF FIGURES Lower Kuskokwim Vicinity Map Transmission Interties -Bethel Area Bethel Utilities Monthly Energy Generation and Demand Bethel -Power Requirements Eek, Kasigluk & Nunapitchuk Month Energy Generation Akiachak -Power Requirements Akiak -Power Requirements Akolmuit -Power Requirements Atmautluak -Power Requirements Eek -Power Requirements Kwethluk -Power Requirements Napakiak -Power Requirements Napaskiak -Power Requirements Oscarville -Power Requirements Tuluksak -Power Requirements Tuntutuliak Regional Electric Intertie Kisaralik Project Kisaralik River Area Capacity Curve Mitchell Geothermal Site Map Tuluksak Geothermal Site Map Ophir Creek Geothermal Site Map Kisaralik Project -General Plan & Layout Kisaralik Project -Construction Schedule Kisaralik Project -Tunnel & Powerhouse Kisaralik Project -Typical Dam Section Combination of Wind Speed Duration Curve and WECS Power Characteristic WECS versus Diesel Bethel Plus 12 Villages Intertie Graphical Comparison of Economic Alternatives Spruce A-Frame Structure Line Mile Multiplier -iii - PAGE I-I 1-8 II-3 II-4 II-7 II-I0 11-12 II-14 I 1-16 11-18 11-20 11-22 II-24 11-26 II -28 II-3D I II -3 III-6 II 1-18 II 1-38 II 1-42 II 1-44 I II -12 II 1-19 III-21 III-22 I II-53 II I-59 II 1-66 IV-I0 to IV-13 A-6 A-33 Bethel -Table of Contents APAIO/C6 TABLE I-I 1-2 II-I II-2 II-3 II-4 II-5 II-6 II-7 II-8 II-9 I 1-10 II-II 11-12 I 1-13 I II-I I II-2 II 1-3 II 1-4 I II-5 I II-6 1V-l 1V-2 1V-3 A-2.1 A-3.1 A-5.1 A-5.2 C-1.1 LIST OF TABLES Busbar Cost of Electric Energy Power Requirements 1980-2000 Bethel Electric Power Requirements Power Requirements 1980-2000 Akiachak Electric Power Requirements Akiak Electric Power Requirements Akolmuit Electric Power Requirements Atmautluak Electric Power Requirements Eek Electric Power Requirements Kwethluk Electric Power Requirements Napakiak Electric Power Requirements Napaskiak Electric Power Requirements Oscarville Electric Power Requirements Tuluksak Electric Power Requirements Tuntutuliak Electric Power Requirements Table of Significant Data -Kisaralik River Kisaralik River Project -Cost Estimates Summary Kisaralik River Project -Cost Estimates Detailed Average Power OUtput WECS Mean Output Power Regional Interties Accumulated Present Worth & Equivalent Unit Costs Cost Ratios of Accumulated Present Worth Cost Ratios of Equivalent Unit Costs Line Loading Limits Low Frequency Line Loading Limits Electric Heat, Bethel Area, High Load Growth Electric Heat, Bethel Area, Low Load Growth Fuel Cost for Bethel Area - ; v - PAGE 1-4 1-6 II-5 II-8 II-l1 11-13 11-15 II-l7 11-19 II-21 II-23 II-25 11-27 II-29 II-31 I II-4 II I -20 II 1-23 111-55 III-57 II 1-65 1V-7 IV-8 IV-9 A-19 A-24 A-39 A-40 C-4 .. .. ' .. .' ., ., • ... .. ALASKA \ \ \")~ • C~,,~ FAIRBANKS \ A oS .p O ••.. L£ LAN ..... I.Ir I A N IS 4fIo. . III· ~ .IfIIli' ., .:. VICINITY MAP T _ 1 FIGURE 1-I Bethel -Section I APA013/I A. INTRODUCTION I. INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY This reconnaissance study has been performed for the Alaska Power Authori ty (AKPA) under the contract "Reconnai ssance Study for Hydroelectric Development at Lake Elva Near Dillingham and on the Kisaralik River Near Bethel" dated August 13, 1979. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the previously identified hydroelectric power potential and other alternative electric energy resources for the Bethel area. B. SUMMARY The Bethel area (Figure 1-1) presently utilizes diesel generation exclusively and is experiencing very high increases in electric energy cost due to the recent escalation of fuel oil prices. All possible alternate developments have therefore been compared to the basic case of continued exclusive diesel generation. The most promising development plan has been found to be development of the hydroelectric potential of the Kisaralik River. It has been assessed as feasible in regard to cost, capacity, environmental impact, and 1 and status. Sens i t i vi ty to load growth and vari ous interest rates has been determined. The following paragraphs will summarize the main sections of the report. 1. Existing Systems and Future Power Requirements Power requirements have been estimated for 12 communities in the Bethel area. The communities included have been those within an "economic" distance. This distance has been defined by calculating the busbar electric energy cost in the community for local diesel generation and comparing it to the bus bar cost resulting from a potential transmission tie to a large central generating plant. One scenario utilizing the historical growth rate and one with a lower growth rate have been estab- lished. Whether the "high" or "low" load growth case are realized will depend greatly on the cost of electric energy. A low growth rate can be expected with the continued use of diesel generation and the steadily increasing cost. If a more cost-stable sO,urce of electric energy is available, it is anticipated that the historic growth rate will continue and industrial development will be encouraged. Table I-I summarizes the anticipated power requirements. 1-3 mis8/nl POWER REQUlrlEMENTS POWER REQUIREMENTS [lETHEL . 12 SMALL COt'MliNITIES BETHEL' 12 SMALL COMMUN!TIES 19!:(1 -2000 19BO -2000 HIGH LOIID GROWTH LOW LOAD GROWTH Loc~t;on 1979 ~ ~ ....1.Q.Q.Q.... Location 1979 ~ 1990 2000 --- Akiachak Akiachak Demand -kW 90.0 92.2 142.3 565.4 Demand -kW 90.0 92.2 101.9 204.7 Energy -M\\'h/yr 315.5 323.3 623.3 2,476.3 Energy -MWh/yr 315.5 323.3 446.5 896.5 Akiak Akiak Demand -kW 45.0 46.7 76.1 242,9 Demand -kW 45.0 46.7 51.5 70,0 Energy -MWh/yr 157.7 163.5 333.3 1,063.9 Energy -MWh/yr 157.7 163.5 225.6 306.8 Akolmuit Akolmuit Dem~nd -kW 147.1 151.1 342.5 986.1 Demand -kW 147.1 151.1 245.5 320.0 Energy -MWh/yr 644.1 662.0 1,500.1 4,319.0 Energy -MWh/yr 644.1 662.0 1 ,075.1 1,401.5 Atmauthluak Atmauthluak Demand -kW 47.4 48.5 77.9 196.5 Demand -kW 47.4 48.5 53,8 61.S Energy -MWh/yr 166.1 170.1 306.9 860.6 Energy -MWh/yr 166.1 170.1 212.0 270.6 Bethel Bethel Dem~nd • kW 4,397.0' 4,666.4 9,022.8 20,016.4 Demand -kW 4,397.0 1 4,666.4 7,338,9 11,249.0 Energy -MWh/yr 1,9817 .0' 21,256.5 43,472,0 96,439.2 Energy -MWh/yr 1,9817.01 21,256.5 35,358.7 54,197.5 Eek Eek Demand -kW 49.4 50.9 89.3 295.9 Demand -kW 49.4 50.9 58.8 78.4 Energy -MWh/yr 194.9 200.5 391. 5 1,296.2 ...... Energy -MWh/yr 194.9 200.5 257,5 343.5 I Kwethluk Kwethluk .+=> Demand -kW 104.8 108.8 233.8 672.3 Demand -kW 104.8 108.8 171.1 232.9 Energy -MWh/yr 367.2 381.4 1,024.0 2,944.9 Energy -MWh/yr 367.2 381.4 749.3 1,019.9 Napakiak Napakiak Demand -kW 97.2 99.2 168.6 706.7 Demand -kW 97.2 99.2 119.7 248.3 Energy -MWh/yr 340.6 350.1 738.5 3,095.4 Energy -MWh/yr 340.6 350.1 524.5 1,087.5 Napaskiak Napa.kiak Demand -kW 73.5 75.3 122.1 388.8 Demand -kW 73.5 75.3 83.8 119.7 Energy -MWh/yr 257.7 263.9 534.9 1,702.8 Energy -MWh/yr 257.7 263.9 367,1 524.2 O.carville O.carville Demand -kW 20.1 20.4 31.6 97.0 Demand -kW 20.1 20.4 20.8 26.3 Energy -MWh/yr 70.6 71.4 138.4 425.0 Energy -MWh/yr 70.6 71.4 91.0 115.4 Tuluksak Tuluk.ak Demand -kW 51.8 53.1 87.1 299.0 Demand -kW 51.8 53,1 59.4 88.5 Energy -MWh/yr 181.6 186.0 381.6 1,309.4 Energy -Ml'.'h/yr 181.6 186.0 260.0 387.6 Tuntutuliak Tuntutuliak Demand -kW 64.8 66.4 117.0 420.4 Demand -kW 64.8 66.4 80.5 128.3 Energy -MWh/yr 227.0 232.7 512.5 1,841.4 Energy -MWh/yr 227.0 232.7 352.7 562.1 Total Total Demand -kW' 5,188.0 5,479.0 10,511.0 24,887.4 Demand -kW· 5,188.0 5,479.0 8,385.7 12,827.9 Energy -MWh/yr 22,740.0 24,261.4 49,957.0 117,774.1 Energy -MWh/yr 22,740.0 24,261.4 39,920.0 61,113.1 . Noncolncident. " Noncoincident. Extrapolated from 1978. Extrapolated from 1978. POvJer Requi rements 1980 to 2000 Table 1-1 • • , , .. 1 f , f • , , ! , , , r I ~ I 1l • n " ~ .~ ~ 'I Bethel -Section I APA013II 2. Electric Energy Resources The Kisaralik River, attributary to the Kuskokwim, has potential for hydroelectric development. The site is located approximately 69 miles southeast of Bethel. By constructing a 300 1 high dam near the Lower Falls a firm capacity of 15 MW or 131,400 MWh per year can be obtained. The construction cost (1979-$) is estimated at $99,657,000 for 2-15 MW generating units installed. This includes the transmission line to Bethel. The construction time is estimated to be approximately 4-5 years. The hydro site is presently included in the 1978 federal emergency withdrawals. Attempts to obtain a powersite exemption should begin immediately. A possible supplementary alternate energy resource to fuel oil or hydroelectric resources appears to be wind energy conversion. The available systems are still very costly, however, and reliability of the equipment in Alaska has not proven to be very high. With continued improvements it is anticipated that utilization of WECS will be economically feasible by individuals in remote locations as well as by electric utilities for supplementary energy to offset fuel cost. Applications for pumping or heating appear to be even more promising. The cost for electric energy generation by WECS at this time in the Bethel area has to be anticipated between 30¢/kWh and 80¢/kWh. (These costs are strictly for secondary, nonfirm energy and do not include standby generators). To utilize diesel generation more efficiently --if no other source of electric energy is available --central generation with transmission interties promises cheaper energy, if the transmission ties are economically feasible. The single wire ground return (SWGR) nne concept is anticipated to offer savings of approximately 60% compared to conventional three phase transmission or distribution lines. A demonstration project to be built in 1980 in the Bethel area is presently in the design stage. Successful construction and operation is expected to increase the use of this type of line construction and make interties between small communities and load centers possible. For this report the feasibility of interties has been investigated for 11 communities in the Bethel area. It is conceivable that busbar costs of electric energy in the small communi ties coul d be lowered if the interties to Bethel are built. This is mostly the result of enhanced generating efficiency and lower fuel costs in Bethel compared to the more remote communities. Investigation of the Nulato coal field, to assess its potential as an alternate energy source for the Bethel area yi e 1 ded discouraging results. Commercial utilization of this resource 1-5 Bethel -Section I APA0131I does not appear to be feasible at this time. The presently available information on wood does not allow proper assessment of the utilization possibilities. The geothermal resources i dent i fi ed are the Mi tche 11 site in the Chuilnuk Mountains, Tuluksak Hot Springs near Nyal, and Ophir Creek Hot Springs. Water temperatures below 150°F and moderate fl ow rates make all but 1 oca 1 use uneconomi ca 1. 3. Economic Feasibility Analysis The development of the Kisaralik River hydroelectric potential and conservation of fuel by interconnecting small communities to a central generating system appear to be the most promising electric energy resources for the foreseeable future. Alternate development plans have been evaluated for a regional intertied system (See Figure 1-2) including up to 12 communities. Ut i 1 i zing annual cost and present worth compari sons, the following scenarios have been found to be the most advantageous developments: • Kisaralik River Hydro for a regional intertied systems. • Regional Intertied System uS'ing Diesel Generation. Transmission interties of 11 communities in the Bethel area to the central generating plants in Bethel have been found feasibly independent of hydropotential development. This is mostly due to the high fuel cost in remote locations and low generating efficiencies. The following table will illustrate the economic differences for the main alternate development plans investigated. Unit costs for marketable energy (hi stori cal load growth) are listed for a medium interest rate of 7%. TABLE 1-2 Busbar Cost of Electric Energy in ¢/kWh Alternate Pl an 1980 1990 2000 Continued use of diesel (Bethe 1) 12.6 21. 0 35.8 Small communities, local diesel 32.7 62.0 102.1 Intertied system, diesel only 14. 7 20.8 35.1 Intertied system with Kisaralik Hydro 30.6 17.8 It should be noted that the above are bus bar costs --not costs to the consumer. 1-6 ... .. ... .. .. ... • .. ... " - Bethel -Section I APA013/I If the utilization of hydro generated electric energy in comfort heating is considered, the busbar costs for 1990 and 2000 have been calculated at 14.7¢/kWh and 15.6¢/kWh respectively. 4. Conclusions and Recommendations The economic analysis clearly favors development of the Kisaralik hydropotential for an intertied system of 12 communities. In order to pursue implementation of this project an institution must be identified that is capable of accomplishing the construc- tion and operation of such a power system delivering the power to the community distribution systems for use by the individual utilities of each community. It is suggested that this institution could be the Alaska Power Authority or a regional entity that will receive the financial backing of the Alaska Power Authority in order to obtain the lowest cost financing for such projects as the Kisaralik. A FERC license application for the Kisaralik hydro project should be prepared as soon as possible to assure the earliest possible start of construction. 1-7 H I :Xl .I'i.' ~" ,. " K'rDAOELECTRJC 6t.NERATING PLANT WITH I~TALLED ~4NCJTY SINGL~ ~WIRE GROUND RETURN TRANSMISSIOtf TRANSMISSION LINt T9 AL~ERNMrE . ROUTE FOR SIH~~ REl'14AN. TRAt;fSMIS610N \~--L~: "," ,.: r ..w~sl fI) ,'f ~ 1\., v ,ot" _ ... ......:..-~~- t __ .~ !I •. ., .• -":<j( ),,~- ~--" .... r .68.1 ;_-";1.," . , ~;;--~. -'--~ " ~ .• ~" , . ~ -'~ -~ " ,:~ - ;:;- Bethel -Section II APA10/H II. EXISTING SYSTEMS AND FUTURE ELECTRIC POWER REQUIREMENTS A. EXISTING FACILITIES Electrical energy is supplied to Bethel and the surrounding villages from a number of sources. The 1 argest s i ngl e source of power is Bethe 1 Ut il it i es, wi th the e 1 ectri ca 1 load in Bethel bei ng some 5 times greater than the combined total of all villages within 50 miles of Bethel. All electrical energy in the area is produced by diesel powered generators, and possibly a few gasoline powered units serving individual homes. Following is a tabulation of known village power sources. Location Size (kW)l Owner 1 Aki achak4 330 City Aki ak 250 City Akolmuit 2 450 AVEC Atmauthluak 50 Village Corp . Bethel 8400 3 Bethel Utilities Eek 206 AVEC Kwethluk 4 125 Vi 11 age Napakiak4 150 Napakiak Corp. Napaskiak 4 200 Napaskiak Power Oscarville Unknown Unknown Tul uksak 4 200 Vi 11 age Tuntutuliak4 Unknown Private 1 In addition to the units listed, most schools have standby generators or provide their own prime power. 2 Kasigluk and Nunapitchuk combined. 3 Installing additional 2100 kW. 4 From 1978 survey, Alaska Department of Energy & Power Deve 1 opment. There are no interconnections between these systems, wi th one I exception. Kas i gl uk and Nunapi tchuk are interconnected and are often refered to as Akolmuit. B. HISTORICAL INFORMATION Available historical information is scarce, but enough does exist to establish some trends. "1960 and 1970 population figures for most villages were obtained from U.S. Census information. Actual surveys of Akiachuk, Bethel, Kasigluk, Napakiak, and Nunapitchuk II-I Bethel -Section II APA10/H were performed in 1975 during preparation of a study, "A Regional El ectri c Power System for the Lower Kuskokwi m Vi ci ni ty" performed by Robert W. Retherford Associates for the Alaska Power Administra- tion. That survey identified population, number of consumers by class, and average electrical consumption by class of consumer. Reliable historical records were obtained from Bethel Utilities for Bethel and from AVEC for Akolmuit and Eek. Current population and number of families for most villages was obtained from the AVCP (Association of Village Council Presidents) Housing Authority. The "1978 Community Energy Survey" published by the State of Alaska, Department of Commerce and Economic Development, Division of Energy and Power Development, provided information concerning population levels and existing generating facilities. The information available indicates a compounded annual population growth rate of from 1 to 3% for the various villages, generally decreasing family size, and moderate increases in intensity of electrical usage for each consumer class. C. FUTURE ELECTRIC ENERGY AND DEMAND PROJECTIONS 1. Bethel Bethe 1 serves as the transportation and commerci a 1 hub for surrounding villages and, as a result, participates indirectly in the growth of all nearby villages. The electrical consumption characteristics in Bethel already approach those of a typical metropol itan area. Figure II-I shows the monthly energy generation and demand for 1977-1978. Population is projected to increase at 3% per year to 1985, and then at 2% through the year 2000. Residential consumption is projected to increase at 5% through 1985, and then at 4% through 2000. Consumption by commercial and large power users is projected to increase at 2% per year and large power users at 1% per year throughout the period. II-2 .. .. • • ., -- .. .' 100 90 eo 70 60 50 40 30 20 4 10 9 8 7 6 4 3 2 C~~ , 'c ---: (~---( 3 10 /,J / 1)/ ........ ........ ........ ( ~ '< ~ ~ '-'-..... c ~( -" 1,,;/ --~---~ "-----/ , ? '( ~( , ',< --~ ...... -- l~ ~ -(I> \() ..... c -- ~ ,.; \~1" p""'" ~""'~ \() .,.. ~ / / p ___ C I I ~ I.,. _ \,..1'. .41 --( ~ tc. ... _-< ~-- ,) ~-~~ !)2 I / ,~ \,..1' . / M \918 - / ~---- BETHEL UTILITIES I MONTHLY ENERGY GENERATION AND DEMAND 1977 -1978 FI(;UKE II-I JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUNE JULY AUG SEPT OCT NOV DEC Bethel -Section II APAlO/H 100,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 80,000 110,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 8,000 11,000 4;000 3,000 2,000 1,000 For accelerated growth, consumption by residential & commerical consumers in the year 2000 is projected to be approximately 200%, and large power consumption 140%, of that achieved during "normal" growth. This implies that the individual rate of electric energy use in Bethel will then be comparable to the present average use in the Anchorage/Palmer area. The power requirements for Bethel for 1978-2000 are illustrated in Figure 11-2 and Table II-I. BETHEL POWER REQUIREMENTS 1978 -2000 ~ --' ~ ~ ../' ---V" ~ ~ ~ ~ --~ ~ ~~" ~ ",,7 ",' 1'/ --.... ~ ..,.-~ -" .----.".-... --I~ ~-..".". 'I-~ >"'" ......... --- ."". ~- 1978 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 FIGURE TI-2 II-4 .. ... HIGH If' lOW II< iii .. III HIGH ... .. lOW IIiIIF • ~' ., iii> • iii ., " APA010/G5 TABLE 11-1 BETHEL ELECTRIC POWER REQUIREMENTS 1979-2000 1978 1980 1990 2000 POPULATION 3,004 3,187 4,080 4,974 (1) # of residential 1,054 1,138 1,511 1,842 consumers (2) average kWh/mol 346 381 (high) 709 1,500 consumers ( low) 593 877 (3) MWh/year residential 4,376.2 5,202.9 (high) 12,855.6 33,156.0 consumers (low) 10,752.3 19,385.2 (1)x(2)x1271000 (4) # of small commercial 225 ·265 369 449 consumers (5) average kWh/mol 2,323 2,417 (high) 3,680 7,000 consumer (low) 2,946 3,591 (6) MWh/year 6,272.1 7,686.1 (high) 16,295.0 37,716.0 sma. com. cons. (low) 13,044.9 19,348.3 (4)x(5)x1271000 (7) # of large 5 5 6 7 cons. + public buildings (8) average kWh/mo/cons 113,991 116,282 (high) 144,020 200,000 (low) 128,448 141,886 (9) MWh/year 6,839.5 6,976.9 (high) 10,369.4 16,800.0 LP's (low) 9,248.3 11,918.4 (7)x(8)x1271000 (10) System IVIWh/year 18,216.7 21,256.5 (high) 43,472.0 96,439.2 (3)+(6)+(9) (low) 35,358.7 54,197.5 (includes losses) 4.2% (high) 10% 10% (low) 7% 7% (11) System .52 .52 .55 .55 Load Factor (12) System Demand 3,999.1 4,666.4 (high) 9,022.8 20,016.4 kW (low) 7,338.9 11,249.0 (10)78.7607(11) 11-5 Bethel -Section II APA10/H 2. Small Communities Population growth rates of from 1% to 3% per year were applied to individual villages based upon historical growth rates, location with respect to intensified commercial activity (up river or down river from Bethel) and known planned activity. Unless historical data indicate otherwise, family size is projected to decrease 2% per year (affects number of residential consumers), number of commercial consumers per residential consumer is increased 1% per year, and an additional large power consumer is added when population reaches approximately 500-600. Annual load factor is assumed to be .40, gradually increasing to .50 and losses plus power plant use are assumed to be 10% unless available data indicate otherwise. Monthly energy use in the 3 AVEC villages in the area is shown in Figure 11-3 for 1978. The above components, when combined, produce a conservative project i on of II norma 111 growth, based upon current conditions and continued reliance upon diesel fuel for electrical energy and for heating. II Acce 1 erated ll growth is based upon the same population growth rates, but assumes that hydroelectric or other more economical power will become available. In that case, rate of consumption for individual consumers is projected to be approximately 4 times that projected for the IInormal" growth rate in the year 2000. Table 11-2 lists the anticipated electric power requirements through the year 2000 for the entire Bethel area. As stated earlier, the load in Bethel is some 5 times the combined load of all other villages within 50 miles of Bethel. This being so, inaccuracy in projecting loads in the villages will not have a significant effect upon power requirements projections for the total area if the Bethel projections are reasonably accurate. However, an attempt has been made to make reasonable projections for each village based upon historical information and anticipated future conditions. These individual projections are based upon trends for the total group of villages. For accelerated growth, consumption per residential consumer is projected to be 3.7 to 4 t'imes "normal" consumption by the year 2000, commercial consumption will be 3 to 5 times "normal" and large power consumption will be 2 to 2.5 times normal. There is a trend toward decreasing family sizes. As more houses are built, households which consist of more than one generation are able to divide into multiple households. Since II-6 .. • • .. .. II> .. 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 2 9 8 7 6 5 4 2 "-'. " . t" ....... .... -\- \. \ '" I ~\ ~x 10-.-....... I \ 1'-....1 \. ./ "'" f', ~./ , , I ,~ ---'" \ \ ~ ..... /\ .- I \ /' ~. ./ ....... , I ~. I I /,;, ~.--\ I ........ II \ I --r--!. --"'" \ VI / I'" EEK,KASIGLUK 8r NUNAPITCHUK UTILITIES MONTHLY ENERGY GENERATION 1978 FIGURE 1I-3 EEK _._._.-KASIGLUK ---------NUNAPITCHUK I I I 10 2 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUNE JULY AUG SEPT OCT NOV DEC TT-7 misB/nl POWER IlEQUI!HMCNTS POWER nEQUIREM~NTS OETHtL • 12 SMALL COMMUNITIE!:. BETHEL. '2 SMALL COMMUNITies 1900 • 2000 19UO • 2000 HIGH LOAD GROWTH LOW LOAD GROWTH Location 1979 .....illL '990 2000 Localion 1979 1980 ~ ...2QQL Akiachak Akiachak Demand· kW 90.0 92.2 142.3 565.4 Demand· kW 90.0 92.2 101.9 204.7 Ene"gy • MWh/y" 315.5 323.3 623.3 2,476.3 Enerogy • MWh/yro 315.5 323.3 446.5 896.5 Akiak Akiak Demand· kW 45.0 46.7 76.1 242.9 Demand· kW 45.0 46.7 5'.5 70.0 Ene"gy • MWh/yro 157.7 '63.5 333.3 1,063.9 Enerogy • MWh/yro 157.7 163.5 225.6 306.8 Akolmult Akolmult Demand· kW 147.1 151.1 342.5 986.1 Demand· kW 147.1 151.1 245.5 320.0 Energy • MWh/y" 644.1 662.0 1 ,500.1 4,319.0 Enerogy • MWh/yro 644.1 662.0 1,075.1 1,401.5 Atmauthluak Almauthluak Demand· kW 47.4 48.5 77.9 196.5 Demand • kW 47.4 48.5 53.8 61.8 Ene"gy • MWh/y,. 166. , 170.1 306.9 860.6 Ene"gy • MWh/yro 166.1 170.1 212.0 270.6 Bethel Bethel Demand' kW 4,397.0 1 4,666.4 9,022.8 20,016.4 Demand· kW 4,397.0 1 4,666.4 7,338.9 11,249.0 Energy· MWh/y,. , ,9817 .0 1 2',256.5 43,472.0 96,439.2 Ene"gy • MWh/yro 1,98" .0 1 21,256.5 35,358.7 54,197.5 Eek Eek Demand· kW 49.4 50.9 89.3 295.9 Demand· kW 49.4 50.9 58.8 78.4 ...... Ene,.gy • MWh/y,. 194.9 200.5 391.5 1,296.2 Ene"gy • MWh/yro '94.9 200.5 257.5 343.5 ...... Kwethluk Kwethluk I D~molnd • kW 101\.8 108.8 233.8 672.3 Demand. kW '04.8 108.8 ",. , 232.9 CP Ene"gy • MWh/y,. 367.2 381.4 ',024.0 2,944.9 Ene"gy • MWh/yro 367.2 381.4 749.3 1,019.9 Napakiak Napakiak Demolnd • kW 97.2 99.2 168.6 706.7 Demand· kW 97.2 99.2 119.7 248.3 Ene,.gy • MWh/y,. 340.6 350.1 738.5 3,095.4 En","gy • MWh/y,. 340.6 350.1 524.5 1,087.5 Napaskiak Napaskiak D~mand • kW 73.5 75.3 122.1 388.8 Demand -kW 73.5 75.3 83.8 119.7 Energy· MWh/y" 257.7 263.9 534.9 1,702.8 Energy • MWh/yr 257.7 263.9 367.1 524.2 Oscar"ille Osc:ar"ill~ Demand • kW 20.1 20.4 31.S 97.0 Demand· kW 20.1 20.4 20.3 25.3 Energy • MWh/y~ 70.6 71.4 138.4 425.0 Ene:-gy -Mw:-./y,. 70.6 71.4 91.0 115.4 Tuluksak Tuluksak Oema~d • kW S1.8 53.1 87.1 299.0 De~and • kW 51.a 53.1 59.4 88.5 :~~"gy • MWh/y~ 1S1.6 186.0 381.5 1.309.4 E~er9V -MY.'h/y,. 181.5 185.0 260.0 387.6 Tuntutuliak Tu~tutuliak Demand· kW 54.8 66.4 1".0 420.4 Demand' kW 64.S 66.4 SO.5 128.3 E~ergy • MWh/y:-,27.0 232.7 512.5 1,841.4 Energy • MWh/y,. 227.0 232.7 352.7 562.1 Total Total Demand -kW· 5,188.0 5,479.0 ·10.511.0 24.S87.4 Dema~d • kW" 5,188.0 5.479.0 a.385.7 12.927.9 Energy· MWh/y" 22.740.0 24,261.4 49,957.0 117.774.1 Ene"gy • MWh/y" 22.740.0 <:4.261.4 39.920.0 51.113.1 . Noncoinc:idrnt • " Nonc:oi~cide~~. 1 Extra;>olatl'd f~om 1978. Ext:-a:loleled f:-::>~ 19;<:. Power Requirements 1980 to 2000 TABLE II-2 1 , ~ ~ ~ I f , ~ ~ , J Bethel -Section II APA10/H each household represents a potential consumer, a decreased population/residential consumer ratio of 2% per year has been anticipated for most villages. The present ratio of population/residential consumer is higher for Akiak than the other vi llages. It has been assumed that this ratio will decrease at 5% per year through 1985 and then 1 eve 1 off at a decl i ne of 2% per year to match the other villages. In Atmautluak and Eek the family size is already below that found in the other vi 11 ages. A decrease in the rati 0 of population/residential consumer of only 1% per year has therefore been used. A nominal relationship exists between the number of commercial and residential consumers. As the number of residential consumers increases, a greater number of commercial service businesses can be supported. With the increasing commercial nature of most village as opposed to the traditional subsistence lifestyles, the number of commercial consumers per residential consumer should increase or conversely the ratio of residential consumers/commercial consumers should decrease. A 1% per year change for all villages has been assumed. Electric energy consumption per individual residential consumer is projected to increase at 2% per year for all villages except Akolmuit. Based upon historical information, a growth rate of 1.5% is projected for Akolmuit. For all villages, consumption of individual commercial and large power consumers is projected to increase at 1% per year. In small communities the availability of cost stable electric energy is anticipated to increase the rate of consumption by individual residential consumers to that presently experienced in Alaska1s southcentral region. II-9 Bethel -Section II APA10/H 8000 4000 1000 1000 ~ eoo 100 800 eoo 4()() zoo 100 90 80 70 80 so 40 30 10 Akiachak Population growth since 1970 has averaged approximately 1.9% per year. The growth rate is projected at 2% during the study period. 1979 base data are estimated, based upon 1974 information. AKIACHAK POWER REQUIREMENTS 1979 -2000 / V J' J' ~ ~ .JIll' ~ -----."'~~ ~ ~ ~ ..... "J-~ ---------/ ~ / -' 1/ "E,.fl ,.",p "",'" ~E~' ~ ." ~ ..--------- 1~85 2000 FIGURE il-4 II-IO .., HIGH • f;'i<- LOW .. ~ ~lIeH .. ... .. LOW ... .. .. .. .. APA010/Gl TABLE 11-3 AKIACHAK ELECTRIC POWER REQUIREMENTS 1979-2000 1979 1980 1990 2000 POPULATION 371 378 461 562 (1) # of residential 50 52 78 117 consumers (2) average kWh/mol 130 133 (high) 257 800 consumers (low) 162 197 (3) MWh/year residential 78.0 83.0 (high) 240.6 '1,123.2 consumers (low) 151.6 276.6 (1)x(2)x1271000 (4) # of small commercial 6 6 10 16 consumers (5) average kWh/mol 400 404 (high) 647 1,500 Consumer ( low) 446 493 (6) MWh/year 28.8 29.1 (high) 77.6 288.0 sma. com. cons. (low) 53.5 94.7 (4)x(5)x1271000 (7) # of large 1 1 1 2 cons. + public buildings (8) average kWh/mo/cons 15,000 15,150 (high) 20,703 35,000 (low) 16,735 18,486 (9) MWh/year 180 181.8 (high) 248.4 840.0 LP's ( low) 200.8 443.7 (7)x(8)x1271000 (10) System MWh/year 315.5 323.3 (high) 623.3 2,476.3 (3)+(6)+(9) ( low) 446.5 896.5 (includes losses) ( 11) System .40 .40 .50 .50 Load Factor (12) System Demand 90.0 92.2 (high) 142.3 565.4 kW ( low) 101.9 204.7 (10)78.7607(11 ) II-ll Bethel -Section II APA10/H ISOOO 4000 3000 I()()() ~ 800 700 eoo BOO 400 100 SIO 80 10 80 80 40 20 10 Aki ak Population growth since 1970 has averaged 1.2% per year. It is projected to increase at 1% during the study period. 1979 base data are estimated, based upon comparison with Eek & Akolmuit. A K I A K POWER REQUIREMENTS 1979 ~ 2000 , --Ill ~ " .JII' ~ ~ """""" ~ .f:~" .-' V' - ----~ / ----~/ - ./ -, ... " ..,.. • C to'/.' _ .. "'-.. ;-.,,----------------~- HIGH I.OW IIIGH LOW 1t79 ,gao IHO '995 .000 FIGURE II-5 II-12 ...,1 I." • .. APA010/G2 TABLE 11-4 AKIAK ELECTRIC POWER REQUIREIVIENTS1979-2000 1979 1980 1990 2000 POPULATION 190 192 212 234 (1 ) # of residential 25 27 42 57 consumers (2) average kWh/mol 130 133 (high) 257 800 consumers (low) 162 197 (3) MWh/year residential 39.0 43.1 (high) 129.5 547.2 consumers ( low) 81.6 134.7 (1)x(2)x12-:-1000 (4) # of small commercial 4 4 7 10 consumers (5) average kWh/mol 175 177 (high) 326 1,000 (low) 195 2"16 (6) MWh/year 8.4 8.5 (high) 27.4 120.0 sma. com. cons. (low) 16.4 25.9 (4)x(5)x12-:-1000 (7) # of large 1 1 1 1 cons. + public buildings (8) average kWh/mo/cons 8,000 8,080 (high) 12,171 25,000 (low) 8,925 9,859 (9) MWh/year 96.0 97.0 (high) 146.1 300.0 LP's (low) 107.1 118.3 (7)x(8)x12-:-1000 (10) System MWh/year 157.7 163.5 (high) 333.3 1,063.9 (3)+(6)+(9) (low) 225.6 306.8 (includes losses) 10% 10% 1 O~) ( 11) System .40 .40 .50 .50 Load Factor (12) System Demand 45.0 46.7 (high) 76.1 242.9 kW (low) 51.5 70.0 (10)-:-8.760-:-(11) I1-13 Bethel -Section II APA10/H 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 &,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 900 800 700 600 I!OO 400 300 200 100 Akolmuit Population growth since 1979 has averaged 1.3%. Growth throu~h the study peri od is projected at 1%. 1979 base data ay'e estimated from AVEC records for 1978. AKOLMUIT (INCLUDES KASIGLUK., NUNAPITCHUK) POWER REQUIREMENTS 1979 -2000 -'" / L V ~ V - ~ ",~9 ~ ~ -..... ~~ ~ ./ ~ L ~ -... ' L /' ~" ~ ~ -~/ -------, ..,.""",---- ... t~~~ .:;r..:;-. ... ~ ~ HIGH !.-OW HIGt< lOW 198!! 1990 199!! 2000 fiGURE n-6 II-14 • .. .... ... ... ' ... APA010/G3 TABLE 11-5 AKOLMUIT (INCLUDES KASIGLUK AND NUNAPITCHUK) ELECTRIC POWER REQUIREMENTS 1979-2000 1979 1980 POPlJLATION 592 598 (1 ) # of residential 110 113 consumers (2) average kWh/mol 135 137 (high) consumers (low) (3) MWh/year residential 178.2 185.8 (high) consumers (low) (1)x(2)x1271000 (4) # of small commercial 23 25 consumers (5) average kWh/mol 188 190 (high) (low) (6) MWh/year 51.9 57.0 (high) sma. com. cons. (low) (4)x(5)x1271000 (7) # of large 2 2 cons. + public buildings (8) average kWh/mo/cons 14,810 14,958 (high) ( low) (9) MWh/year 355.4 359.0 (high) LP's (low) (7)x( 8 )x1271 000 (10) System IVlWh/year 644.1 662.0 (high) (3)+(6)+(9) (low) (includes losses) ( 11) System .50 .50 Load Factor (12 ) System Demand 147.1 151 .1 (high) kW (low) (10)78.760-:-(11 ) II-15 1990 2000 660 730 153 209 260 800 159 185 477 .4 2,006.4 291.9 464.0 36 55 341 1,000 2'10 ")?") L.JL 147.3 660.0 9C.7 153. 'I 3 3 20,528 35,000 16,523 18,251 739.0 1,260.0 594.8 657.0 1,500.1 4,319.0 1,075.1 1,40'1,5 .50 .50 342.5 986.1 245.5 320.0 Bethel -Section II APA10/H 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Atmautluak The population has declined slightly since 1974, the first year for which population information was obtained. Growth has been projected at 1% per year. 1979 base data are estimated by comparison with Akiachak. ATMAUTLUAK POWER REQUIREMENTS 1979 ~ 2000 F-~--'--- ~ -. ./ ./' / V ~ -,. ... ~.J-. .-/~ I""""" ~. V/ ~ --' ~ .... I"'" I 'i £.!.: .,.,.. \I. ... :;: ~-------fo---- .. ~--~- -- HIGH LOW lilGH LOW 1979 1980 19S~ 1990 199~ 2000 FIGURE II-7 11-16 ... ' ., • • .. .. ' • APA010/G4 TABLE 11-6 ATMAUTLUAK ELECTRIC POWER REQUIREMENTS 1979-2000 1979 1980 1990 2000 POPULATION 140 141 156 173 (1) # of residential 26 27 33 39 consumers (2) average kWh/mol 130 133 (high) 257 800 consumers (low) 162 197 (3) MWh/year residential 40.6 43.1 (high) 101.8 374.4 consumers (low) 64.2 92.2 (1)x(2)x12+1000 (4) # of small commercial 3 3 4 6 consumers (5) average kWh/mol 400 404 (high) 647 1,500 (low) 446 493 (6) MWh/year 14.4 14.5 (high) 31.1 108.0 sma. com. cons. (low) 21.4 35.5 (4)x(5)x12+1000 (7) # of large 1 1 1 1 cons. + public buildings (8) average kWh/mo/cons 8,000 8,080 (high) 12,171 25,000 (low) 8,925 9,859 (9) MWh/year 96.0 97.0 (high) 146.1 300.0 LP's (low) 107.1 118.3 (7)x(8)x12+1000 (10) System MWh/year 166.1 170.1 (high) 306.9 860.6 (3)+(6)+(9) (low) 212.0 270.6 (includes losses) (11) System .40 .40 .45 .50 Load Factor (12) System Demand 47.4 48.5 (high) 77 .9 196.5 kW (low) 53.8 61.8 (10)-:-8.760+(11 ) II -17 Bethel -Section II APA10/H eooo 4000 1000 900 100 700 eo<) eoo 400 too 100 SIO eo 70 eo eo 40 to Eek The population declined from 200 in 1960 to 186 in 1970, and appears to have fluctuated between those two levels since 1970. Based upon a present population of 185, a growth rate of 1% per year is projected. 1979 base data are estimated from 1979 AVEC data. EEK POWER REQUIREMENTS 1979 -2000 ./ ~ ." ~ ~ , ~ ~ ~ - ~ "".-~/ ~"", v 7 .. ~ ..Jt' _ ,,\(.1' :-r Lid! Y:"--------~--------------...---- HIGH tow HIGH LOW 1SJ7~ 1~80 1~85 IHa '"5 1000 FIGURE ll-8 11-18 .. • " III' "'r' 1It'. ... • .- ... ... .! , 8',1>: _I, .. • APA010/G6 TABLE 11-7 EEK ELECTRIC POWER REQUIREMENTS 1979-2000 1979 1980 1990 2000 POPULATION lB5 187 206 228 (1) # of residential 47 49 59 74 consumers (2) average kWh/mol 118 120 (high) 242 BOO consumers (low) 147 '179 (3) MWh/year residential 66.6 70.6 (high) 171.3 710.4 consumers (low) 104. '1 159.0 ('I )x(2)x12-:-1 000 (4) # of small commercial 7 7 10 14 consumers (5) average kWh/mol 165 167 (high) 312 1,000 ( low) 184 203 (6) MWh/year 13.9 14.0 (high) 37.4 16B.0 sma. com. cons. (low) 22.1 34.1 (4)x(5)x12-:-1000 (7) # of large 1 1 1 1 cons. + public buildings (B) average kWh/mo/cons 8,061 8,141 (high) 12,233 25,000 (low) 8,993 9,934 (9) MWh/year 96.7 97.7 (high) 146.8 300.0 LP's (low) 107.9 119.2 (7)x(8)x12-:-1000 (10) System MWh/year 194.9 200.5 (high) 391.1 1,296.2 (3)+(6)+(9) (low) 257.5 343.5 (includes losses) (11) System .45 .45 .50 .50 Load Factor (12 ) System Demand 49.4 50.9 (high) 89.3 295.9 kW (low) 58.B 7B.4 (10)-:-B.760-:-(11) II-19 Bethel -Section II APAIO/H 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 elJO(J apoo 41JO(J r.poo 1000 900 800 700 600 !iOO 400 $00 100 Kwethluk Population growth since 1970 has averaged 1.4% per year. Growth has been projected at 1.5% through the year 2000. 1979 base data are estimated by comparing with Akiachak. KWETHLUK POWER REQUIREMENTS 1979 -2000 7 V V -~ ~ ----" .JIll'" ---"""'""'" • I:!:;. ". ~ -'" ~-" "" JII'--' ~ /r ~ /" io"" /" --..------~ ~ - t~~ "t.~' ",.. """....--~ .,..,..,.----~~-... """ I....-o~ ...... 11'-' HIGH LOW "I8H LOW 1979 19.0 1985 1990 1995 2000 FIGURE II-9 II-20 "" ... •• I> .. ., ., "" • .. •. fIt" .... .. .. ~ III' .. APA010/G7 TABLE 11-8 KWETHLUK ELECTRIC POWER REQUIREMENTS 1979-2000 1979 1980 1990 2000 POPULATION 457 464 538 624 (1) # of residential 74 76 108 '152 consumers (2 ) average kWh/mol 130 133 (high) 257 800 consumers (low) 162 197 (3) MWh/year residential 115.4 121.3 (high) 333.1 1,459.2 consumers (low) 210.0 359.3 (1)x(2)x12-:-1000 (4) # of small commercial 8 9 13 21 consumers (5) average kWh/mol 400 404 (high) 647 1,500 (low) 446 493 (6 ) MWh/year 38.4 43.6 (high) 100.9 378.0 sma. com. cons. (low) 69.6 124.2 (4)x(5)x12-:-1000 (7) # of large 1 1 2 2 cons. + publ ic buildings (8 ) average kWh/mo/cons 15,000 15,150 (high) 20,703 35,000 (low) 16,735 18,486 ( 9) MWh/year 180.0 181.8 (high) 496.9 840.0 LP's (low) 401,6 443.7 (7)x(8)x12-:-1000 (10) System MWh/year 367.2 381.4 (high) 1,024.0 2,944.9 (3)+(6)+(9) (low) 749.3 1,019.9 (includes losses) ( 11) System .40 .40 .50 .50 Load Factor ( 12) System Demand 104.8 108.8 (high) 233.8 672.3 kW (low) 171 .1 232.9 (10)78.760-:-(11 ) I I-21 Bethel -Section II APA10/H &000 4000 1000 eo<) 800 700 soo BOO 400 100 90 eo 70 eo eo 40 20 10 Napakiak The population appears to have increased approximately 5% per year since 1974. However there are confl i ct i ng reports of population which could give growth rates from 0% to 6.2% per year. A growth rate of 3% per year has been used for these projections. 1979 base data are estimated, based upon 1974 information. NAPAKIAK POWER REQUIREMENTS 1979 -2000 / ./ '/ JIIA ~ ~ .JI' ~ ~ ,- ~ ----~ ." .. " ............... -~ / ~ ~ ~' I""""" /' .; /~ ~. f1f.. .. .,.¢" ~ .. ,,~ .,.~ ------" -...-----.. --------- - lilGH LOW HIGH I_OW 1979 1980 .1990 19t5 1000 FIGURE 1I-10 11-22 .. ... II' !lit,. .. li.' II' IiOl II' ,::i>t '"', .. ... II' /\P/\010jCB TABLE 11-9 NAPAKIAK ELECTRIC POWER REQUIREMENTS 1979-2000 1979 1980 1990 2000 POPULATION 293 302 406 545 (1) # of residential 48 50 83 136 consumers (2) average kWh/mol 175 179 (high) 339 1,000 consumers (low) 218 265 ( 3) MWh/year residential 100.8 107.4 (high) 337.6 1,632.0 consumers (low) 217.1 432.5 (1)x(2)x12-:-1000 (4 ) # of small commercial 6 6 11 19 consumers (5) average kWh/mol 400 404 (high) 647 1,500 (low) 446 493 (6) MWh/year 28.8 29.1 (high) 85.4 342.0 sma. com. cons. (low) 58.9 1"12.4 (4)x(5)x12-:-1000 "-- (7) # of large 1 1 1 2 cons. + publ ic buildings (8) average kWh/mo/cons 15,000 15,150 (high) 20,703 35,000 (low) 16,735 18,486 (9) MWh/year 180.0 181.8 (high) 248.4 840.0 LP's (low) 200.8 443.7 (7)x(8 )x12-:-1 000 (10) System MWh/year 340.6 350.1 (high) 738.5 3,095.4 (3)+(6)+(9) (low) 524.5 1,087.5 (includes losses) ("11 ) System .40 .40 .50 .50 Load Factor ( 12) System Demand 97.2 99.9 (high) 168.6 706.7 kW (low) 119.7 248.3 (10)-:-8.760-:-(11) 11-23 Bethel -Section II APA10/H 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 .00 800 700 100 800 400 100 .0 80 70 eo eo 40 20 10 Napaskiak The population of Napaskiak has varied from 154 in 1960 to 259 in 1970. Since 1974 the population appears to have been relatively stable at approximately 210 to 220. It is projected to grow at 1% per year from 1979 through 2000, based upon a 1979 base of 2l0. 1979 base data are estimated, based upon Napakiak information. NAPASKIAK POWER REQUIREMENTS 1979 -2000 / HIGH .JII' ~ .JI' "" ."' ... ~ .-V" -LOW \l"''f.~ ~ ~ / HIGH I"'" // ,// -. ,,(E ,.~ -----J'" pEP."~ LOW ----1.0.--'" - 1979 1980 It85 1890 1885 1000 FIGURE II-II II-24 .. II, .. • iii· APA010/G9 TABLE 11-10 NAPASKIAK ELECTRIC POWER REQUIREMENTS 1979-2000 1979 1980 1990 2000 POPLJ LAT ION 210 212 234 259 (1) # of residential 43 44 60 81 consumers (2) average kWh/mol 175 179 (high) 339 1,000 consumers (low) 218 265 (3) MWh/year residential 90.3 94.5 (high) 244.1 972.0 consumers (low) 157.0 257.6 (1)x(2)x12-:-1000 (4) # of small commercial 5 5 8 12 consumers (5) average kWh/mol 400 404 (high) 647 1,500 ( low) 446 493 (6) MWh/year 24.0 24.2 (high) 62.1 216.0 sma. com. cons. ( low) 42.8 71.0 (4)x(5)x12-:-1000 (7) # of large 1 'I 1 1 cons. + publ ic buildings (8) average kWh/mo/cons 10,000 10,100 (high) 15,008 30,000 (low) 11,157 12,324 (9) MWh/year 120.0 121.2 (high) 180.1 360.0 LP's ( low) 133.9 147.9 (7)x(8)x12-:-1000 (10) System MWh/year 257.7 263.9 (high) 534.9 1702.8 (3)+(6)+(9) (low) 367.1 524.2 (includes losses) ( 11) System .40 .40 .50 .50 Load Factor (12 ) System Demand 73.5 75.3 (high) 122.1 388.8 kW (low) 83.8 119.7 ('10)-:-8.760-:-(11 ) 11-25 Bethel -Section II APAIO/H 1000 900 800 700 600 GOO 400 200 100 90 80 70 60 GO 40 20 10 Oscarvi 11 e Population has varied between 51 and 60 since 1960, with no noticeable trend. Growth rate has been projected at 1% per year. 1979 base data are estimated, using Eek as a reference. OSCARVILLE POWER REQUIREMENTS 1979 -2000 ... ~ /" "" V .~ft/ V .\l I ~ ~ , ~ ..#' .JJ" ~ ~ ....... - :... /"'" 'II .£J.' ,'1£"" .""."",..-~------.!--. ....,. ,...~ ...... ---. --- , HIGH LOW HIGH LOW 1979 1980 198& 1990 1995 2000 FIGURE IT-12 II-26 ... .. • • .. .. • APA010/G10 TABLE 11-11 OSCARVI LLE ELECTRIC POWER REQUIREMENTS 1979-2000 1979 1980 1990 2000 POPULATION 52 53 58 64 (1) # of residential 10 10 14 19 consumers (2) average kWh/mol 118 120 (high) 242 800 consumers (low) 147 179 (3) MWh/year residential 14.2 14.4 (high) 40.7 182.4 consumers (low) 24.7 40.8 (1)x(2)x1271000 (4) # of small commercial 1 1 2 2 consumers (5) average kWh/mol 165 167 (high) 313 1,000 ( low) 184 203 (6) MWh/year 2.0 2.0 (high) 7.5 24.0 sma. com. cons. (low) 4.4 4.9 (4)x(5)x1271000 (7) # of large 1 1 1 1 cons. + public buildings (8) average kWh/mo/cons 4,000 4,040 (high) 6,467 15,000 (low) 4,463 4,930 (9) MWh/year 48.0 48.5 (high) 77.6 180.0 LP's ( low) 53.6 59.2 (7)x(8)x1271000 (10) System MWh/year 70.6 71.4 (high) 138.4 .0 (3)+(6)+(9) (low) 91.0 115.4 (includes losses) (11 ) System .40 .40 .50 .50 Load Factor (12) System Demand 20.1 20.4 (high) 31.6 97.0 kW (low) 20.8 26.3 (10)78.7607(11) II-27 Bethel -Section II APAlO/H 11000 4000 3000 1000 900 eoo 700 eoo IlOO 400 100 90 80 70 80 80 40 10 Tuluksak Population growth since 1970 has averaged 2.3%. Growth has been projected at 2% per year from 1979 through 2000. 1979 base data estimated by compari son with Eek and Aki achi ak. TULUKSAK POWER REQUIREMENTS 1979 -2000 / .., -"" ./' "'" ~ ~ ~ ------~ ~ L/ "'""" ./' -~/ ... 11.' .;- .", .. \Co (;,;;. ------\I. ... .:..--------... -------~---- IIIGH lOW IIIG" lOW IW9 19&0 IlUIS IHO 1000 FIGURE. Ir-13 II-28 ... l1li b .. .' ., .- 5, • ~' .. ... !-''\I .. .. APA010/G11 TABLE 11-12 TULUKSAK ELECTR IC POWER R EQU I R EMENTS 1979-2000 1979 1980 1990 2000 POPULATION 240 245 298 364 (1) # of residential 32 33 50 74 consumers (2) average kWh/mol 130 133 (high) 257 800 consumers (low) 162 197 (3) MWh/year residential 49.9 .7 (high) 154.2 710.4 consumers (low) 97.2 174.9 (1)x(2)x12-:-1000 (4) # of small commercial 4 4 6 10 consumers (5) average kWh/mol 400 404 (high) 647 1,500 (low) 446 493 (6) MWh/year 19.2 19.4 (high) 46.6 180.0 sma. com. cons. ( low) 32.1 59.2 (4)x(5)x12-:-1000 .. _-- (7) # of large 1 1 1 1 cons. + public buildings (8) average kWh/rna/cons 8,000 8,080 (high) 12, 171 25,000 (low) 8,925 9,859 (9) MWh/year 96.0 97.0 (high) 146.1 300.0 LP's (low) 107.1 118.3 (7)x(8)x12-:-1000 (10) System MWh/year 181.6 186.0 (high) 381.6 1,309.4 (3)+(6)+(9) (low) 260.0 387.6 (includes losses) ( 11) System .40 .40 .50 .50 Load Factor (12) System Demand 51.8 53.1 (high) 87.1 299.0 kW ( low) 59.4 88.5 (10)-:-8.760-:-(11) II-29 Bethel -Section II APAIO/H 6000 4000 3000 2000 1000 900 800 700 eo<> 600 400 100 eo eo 70 eo eo 40 20 10 Tuntutuliak Population has grown at a rate of 3.9% per year since 1970. It appears from available information that the growth rate was higher until 1977, and then leveled off. The growth rate from 1979-2000 has been projected at 3%. 1979 base data are estimated by comparison to Napakiak. TUNTUTUTLI AK POWER REQUIREMENTS 1979 0 2000 / liteH .JI' .., """"" ../ t/' ~ LOW ... -"" ---~ ta~ ~-----~ ~/ HIGH ~ ........ P""" // -!'- .,/ ,,"" !!!-'l.. ~~~ -------~ LOW ~ ..,.,.. ;;00;'''' ---;;;;iiiiiiiI" 1979 1980 1~8S 1t90 1000 FIGURE 1I-14 II-3D .,,, !III .' .. .. iii ., APA010/G12 TABLE 11-13 TUNTUTULIAK ELECTRIC POWER REQUIREMENTS 1979-2000 1979 1980 1990 2000 POPULATION 223 230 309 4't:, I~ ('I) # of residential 32 33 55 consumers (2) average kWh/mol 175 179 (high) 339 1,000 consumers (low) 218 265 .... ----.-- (3) MWh/year residential 67.2 70.9 (high) 223.7 1,080.0 consumers ( low) 143.9 286.2 (1)x(2)x12-;.1000 (4) # of small commercial 4 4 8 13 consumers (5) average kWh/mol 400 404 (high) 647 1 ,~,OO (low) 446 493 (6) MWh/year 19.2 19.4 (high) 62.1 234.0 sma. com. cons. (low) 42.8 76.9 (4)x(5)x12-;'1000 (7) # of large 1 1 I cons. + public buildings (8) average kWh/mo/cons 10,000 10,100 (high) 15,008 30,000 (low) 11, 157 12,324 (9) MWh/year 120.0 121.2 (high) 180.1 360.0 LP's (low) 133.9 147.9 (7)x(8 )x12-;.1 000 (10) System MWh/year 227.0 232.7 (high) 512.5 1,841.4 (3)+(6)+(9) (low) 352.7 562.1 (includes losses) ( 11) System .40 .40 .50 .50 Load Factor (12 ) System Demand 64.8 66.4 (high) 117 .0 420.4 kW (low) 80.5 128.3 (10)-;.8.760-;.(11) II -31 Bethel -Section III APA15/E III. ELECTRIC ENERGY RESOURCES A. INTRODUCTION Thi s section presents an ana lys i s of exi st i ng energy resources in the Bethel area, based on available information. Published reports, USGS maps, field investigations and other available literature as listed in the bibliographies with each part, as well as communication with people in the area, have been utilized to complete knowledge on resources that can be developed with known technology within the next twenty years. Resources have been analyzed in regard to economic and environmental feasibility. Except for the potential oil and gas discoveries, which would require a very large scale development and are not addressed in this report, the development of the Golden Gate hydroe 1 ectri c site appears to be the best prospect to pl'ovi de the required electrical energy in the futUl'e. Small communities without access to hydroelectric or geothermal energy will have to rely on diesel, coal/wood generation, transmission interties or implement wind and solar power on a small scale. Unfortunately neither coal/ wood generation or wind and solar power appear to be economically advantageous at this time. Severe restraints on development of most potential resources are created by the present land status uncertainties. Developeable potential resources are, however, mentioned and economically evaluated on an approximate basis in this study regardless of the potential land usage conflicts. B. ENERGY RESOURCES The following potential energy resources will be discussed: 1. Hydroelectric Potential 2. Coal/Wood Energy Conversion 3. Geothermal Potential 4. Wind Power Potential 5. Transmission Interties 6. Conservat ion The available energy resources will be evaluated in regard to their potential to replace or supplement the present use of petroleum fuels. III-l Bethel -Section III APA15/E The present state of the art in wind and solar energy conversions are considered to be uneconomical on a "utility" scale due to either high cost or questionable reliability. It is expected that both these energy convers i on techno 1 ogi es wi 11 be pursued on a demonstration -or private individual level-in the near future. Overall energy needs, however, must be filled by means of proven techno logy and economi ca lly feas i b 1 e developments. Emphas is has been placed on renewable resources. This does not imply that other resources have been overlooked but rather attempts to put them in perspective in regard to possible development and costs. 1. Hydroe 1 ectri c Potential a. Introduction: The Golden Gate Hydro Site on the Kisaralik River has the potential to supply the entire future needs of the Bethel area through the year 2000. The energy from the Golden Gate hydro project can be absorbed by interconnecting numerous small villages surrounding Bethel to a centralized power distribution point located in Bethel I which is in turn supplied via a 69 mile long transission line from the Golden Gate Hydro project. This concept is shown in Figure III-I. It is estimated that 1986 would prove to be the earliest possible completion date for the project assuming all necessary permits can be readily acquired. Thi s comp 1 et i on date is, however, quest i onab 1 e as the present and future land status of the area is uncertain. The project lies within the proposed uYukon Delta" National Wildlife Refuge created by the Federal Land Policy Management Act of November 16, 1978, Emergency Order 204E. The following pages address the preliminary geologic investigation, construction, construction cost, environ- mental impact and energy potential of the Golden Gate Project. b. General Description: The Kisaralik River originates in the Kilbuck Mountains and flows west-northwest approximately 110 miles where it empties into the Kuskokwim River near the village of Akiak. The proposed dam site is located in a narrow meandering gorge at approximate river mile 67 and 63.5 airline miles east-southeast of the City of Bethel. This site is in section 17, T4N, R62W, Seward Meridian and identified as "Lower Falls" on the U.S.G.S. Bethel (B-3) quadrangle although there are no falls at the location. There are no significant falls anywhere along this section of river where a substantial head could be utilized. III-2 .. .. • • • .. , \ ; i r, (, :; j , < • 'f" j -.. " ;. , .. ,,\( , ., .., '. FIGURE III-l ."$MIIi:''' " :~r"'~ , " Bethel -Section III APA15/E TABLE III-1 TABLE OF SIGNIFICANT DATA Kisaralik River Hydroelectric RESERVOIR Ora; nage Area Normal Maximum Water Surface (msl) El. Minimum Water Surface El. Tailwater El. Surface Area -Normal Max. W.S. Live Storage (70 ft. drawdown) Regulation DAM Type Height Crest Elevation (msl) Volume Impervious Facing SPILLWAY Type Crest Elevation Width Design Discharge POWER TUNNEL Length Finished Diameter POWER PLANT Type Capacity Maximum Gross Head Type of Turbines TRANSMISSION LINE Voltage Length Conductor Size 1II-4 544 sq. mi. (1409 sq. km) 1110 ft. (338 m) 1060 ft. (323 m) 805 ft. (245 m) 6700 Ac. (2680 a) 320,750 ac.ft. (395.7 MCM) 800 cfs (22.7 cms) Rockfi 11 315 ft. (96 m) 1125 ft. (343 m) 2,500 t OOO c.y. (1,911,500 c.m.) Asphaltic Concrete Ungated Side Channel 1110 ft. (338 m) 375 ft. (114 m) 87 t OOO cfs (2,464 cms) 925 ft. (282 m) 16 ft. (4.9 m) modified horseshoe, concrete lined Underground 30,000 kW (2 units) 305 ft. (93 m) Vertical Francis 138 kV 69 mi. (111 km) 795.5 KCM, ACSR Ill"> - • • • .. • Bethel -Section III APA15/E The selected site offers several advantages over other possible dam sites on the Kisaralik River. These are: (1) The topography is such that the volume of material to construct a dam of sufficient height to provide suitable storage and head for low winter flows is less than at the other sites. (2) The U-shaped bend in the river provides for a very short power tunnel; a feature not evi dent at the other sites. (3) More favorable geologic conditions. (4) A natural bench at an appropri ate hei ght for the excavation of a side channel spillway. Severa 1 dam hei ghts were investigated with respect to available prime power and the cost of dam vs. cost of power. Preliminary studies indicate a reservoir with normal maximum water surface at elevation 1110 will provide the greatest benefit to cost ratio when using a regulated flow of 800 cfs. All head and storage is developed with a rockfill dam 315 feet high with a crest at elevation 1125 and a spillway crest at elevation 1110. Thi s wi 11 create a reservoi r havi ng a capac; ty of 716,000 acre-feet of storage. A usable storage of 320,750 acre-feet is provided with a drawdown of 70 feet. Figure 111-2 shows the extent of the reservoir. This chapter gives a description of the Project, the preliminary design of the major project elements, the schedul e for the construction of the project and the estimated project costs. c. Project Arrangement: The Kisaralik River Project would consist of the following principal elements: (1) A rockfill dam across the river, founded on rock, with a side channel spillway having a crest at elevation 1110 on the north abutment. The upstream slope of the dam would be 1.7 horizontal to 1 vertical. The downstream slope would be 1.5 horizontal to 1 vertical. Oversize rock would be placed against the downstream face for earthquake stability_ The dam would have a crest of 550 feet in length and 20 feet 1II-5 ~~ / / .. I" I') ~."- \ " '. . ., , . ~~". ' , \ , ~ SCALE IN MILES 2 3 4 ----- ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY KISARALIK PROJECT RESERVOIR JAN. 1980 9703 FIGURE m-2 .. .. • • • • - • • • Bethel -Section III APA15/E in width. An impervious membrane of asphaltic concrete on the upstream face and a concrete grout cap along the upstream toe would be provided. (2) A concrete intake structure with invert at elevation 820 is provided with a trashrack on the right abutment of the river. (3) A rei nforced concrete 1 i ned tunnel 925 feet in length with a finished diameter of 16 feet. (4) An underground powerhouse containing the turbines, generators and electrical switchgear. (5) A surface switchyard adjacent to the powerhouse adit contai ni ng the transformers, switches, etc. and transmission take-off structures. (6) Other facilities, including a 50 mile winter construction access road from near Akiak and transmission line. d. Hydroelectric Power Production: The powerp 1 ant wou 1 d contain two generators rated at 15,000 kW each, powered by vertical Francis turbines of 23,000 HP each. The project would produce 131,400 MWh per year. The net operating head would be in the order of 265 feet; average flow is 800 cfs. The generating units would have a overload rating of 15% above their nameplate rating. The head at which the units would be required to operate, 300 feet, is in the range normally covered by reaction (Francis) turbines. Vertical units were selected to minimize the horizontal dimensions of an underground powerhouse. A minimum of two units should be installed so that the project, which would be the major source of energy to the system, could operate with one unit out of service. The installation of more than two units would require a larger powerhouse excavation and three 10 MW units with appurtenances would cost considerably more than two 15 MW units. If two 10 MW units were installed initially with 1II-7 Bethel -Section III APA15/E e. provisions for a future unit, all of the necessary excava- tion for the unit, in the powerhouse, tailrace and supply line would have to be done initially. The cost of installing three 10 MW units would be considerably higher than two 15 MW units in a one stage development and the cost of installing two 10 MW units with provisions for a future unit would cost approximately the same as installing two 15 MW units. The cost of mobilizing and providing camp facil ities in this remote location is extremely high; therefore, stage development is not recommended. The installation of three or more units has the advantages of being able to operate the machines at a higher rate of efficiency and providing a greater peaking capacity with one unit down. During the early years of surplus energy, operation at a higher efficiency would result in spilling more water over the spillway. As energy requi rements approach the prime capacity of the plant, the units would operate wi thi n a reasonable range of effi ci ency. Wi th the long transmission line being the most vulnerable portion of the Project and hydroelectric units being very re 1 i ab 1 e, two 15 MW uni ts have been se 1 ected for the purpose of this report. Geology, Foundation and Construction Materials: The geology of the Bethel quandrangle was published in 1959 by Hoare and Coonrad (Map 1-285); there has been little addition to this work since then. According to their classification, the bedrock in the Lower Falls area is part of the undifferentiated Gemuk group (KCg), of probable late Paleozoic and Mesozoic age. The unit is comprised of chiefly massive and thin-bedded, fine-grained siliceous rocks, some volcanic rocks, calcareous siltstone, and limestone. At the damsite, the rocks are siliceous metasiltstones or argillites and cherts. The rocks are generally massive, displaying little evidence of former bedding planes. However, parting and outcrop patterns i ndi cate a N20W stri ke for the ori gi na 1 structure. Overpri nt i ng thi s texture are several zones of cherty, more resistant rock that trend roughly northwest and east-west, and at least two main joint sets (N80E/80N and N30W/80E). While the structure of the unit is somewhat complex on a local scale, it appears to present no special problems for construction of a dam. Bedrock outcrop on the hillsides above the river is generally frost-riven and fractured, but fresher exposures adjacent to the scouring action of the river are more uniformly competent. III-8 • .. .. .' • Bethel -Section III APA15/E A zone of especially resistant cher'ty material cuts across the river in an east-west direction near the Lower Falls area. The zone is subparallel to the proposed axis of a dam and would underlie the major portion of a rockfill structure. From numerous outcrops on both sides of the channel and midstream, it is presumed that only a few feet of alluvium would need to be removed from the stream bottom itself. Right and left abutments are covered by a thin veneer (up to 10 feet, but generally less than 3 feet) of colluvium and talus with bedrock cropping out in several places. As well as removal of this overburden, some of the highly fractured bedrock wou 1 d need to be removed from the keyway. Major joint sets cut both across and downstream, but are generally tight and grouting shou'ld be minimal. No signs of faulting were observed, and there is no indication of such from the regional mapping of Hoare and Coonrad. The mountai ns i des of the gorge area appear to have been fairly stable with no evidence of major lands1ides. Construction material for rockfill could be obtained from either abutment. The crosscutting joi nts generate equidimentional blocky debris that is generally less than one foot in diameter. Aggregate for concrete is unavailable from the gorge itself, but sandbars approximately one-and- one-ha If mil es downstream contai n well-graded sandy gravels. Geologically, the damsite is favorable. The most important construction problem would be adequate grouting of the joint sets. f. Hydro logy: The watershed above the proposed damsite was determined to be 544 square miles from the U.S.G.S. map Bethel, Alaska 1:250,000. A conservative annual mean runoff of 20 inches was chosen based on NOAA Technical Memorandum NWS AR-I0 Mean Monthly and Annual Precipitation, Alaska by Gordan D. Kilday. This bulletin shows a mean annual precipitation of 20 inches for Bethel, 40 inches for the mountainous region near the Kisaralik River damsite and 80 inches along the ridge dividing the Kuskokwim and Wood River Basins. II I-9 Bethel -Section III APA15/E g. The 544 square miles or 348,160 acres with 20 inches of runoff (1.67 feet) calculates to 580,270 acre-feet of runoff per year. The total runoff of 580,270 acre-feet per year equates to an average annual flow of 800 cfs. It is believed that 800 cfs average would flow during the driest year and the power available used in this study would be firm with annual regulation. With a net head of 265 feet, the project would develop 15,000 kW continuous or 131,400 MWh of firm energy per year. (See Appendix A-8). It is strongly recommended that a stream gage be installed near the proposed damsite at the earliest possible date. If the average annual flow is much greater than used in this study, the dam should be designed for future raising, the power tunnel diameter increased, and the powerhouse designed for future expansion, if feasibility -level studies so indicate. Description of Project Facilities: (1) Dam: The dam would be a non-overflow rockfill type founded on bedrock. The rockfi 11 woul d have a maximum height of 308 feet from elevation 810 to 1118. The crest would be 550 feet in length and 20 feet in width with a 7-foot high concrete coping wall on the upstream edge to elevation 1125 The rockfi11 in the dam, with upstream slope of 1.7h:1V and downstream slope of 1.5h:1V, will be zoned and compacted in the lifts with vibratory compactors. A concrete grout cap will be placed along the upstream toe to grout the rock joint sets. The dam would be sea 1 ed between the grout cap and the copi ng wall with asphaltic concrete pavement on the upstream face with an average thickness of 12 inches. A 20-foot high cofferdam placed upstream from the grout cap would divert the power water through the power tunnel during dam construction. The cofferdam would not be removed. A typical dam section is shown on Figure 111-7. An area-capacity curve for the reservoir is included in Figure III-3, (2) Spillway: The probable maximum flood for the Kisaralik River has not been determined for this study. For estimating purposes, a spillway at elevation 1110 with a channel width of 375 feet and a slope of 5% II 1-10 • ., WI • .. .. • Bethel -Section III APA15/E would pass the probable maximum flood before over- topping the dam. Routing of a PMF flood through the large reservoir would probably result in the inflow being at least twice that of the spillway outflow. The spillway would be excavated in bedrock around the right (north) abutment of the dam and discharge into the side canyon downstream from the powerhouse. See Figure 111-4 for general layout. (3) Power Tunnel and Intake:A tunnel 925 feet in length and mi nimum rock excavation di ameter of 18 feet woul d 1 ead from the powerhouse through the ri ght abutment to an intake structure located upstream from the cofferdam. The tunnel would slope 0.020 downstream and be concrete lined to a finish diameter of 16 feet. The concrete power structure intake structure would be flared to reduce entrance losses and be provided with a trashrack, having slots for an emergency closure gate. The gate operator would be located above the highwater at elevation 1125. The gate stem would be sealed in an oil filled housing to prevent freezing. The downstream end of the tunnel would terminate in a trifurcation. Two legs of the trifurcation would be connected to turbines in the powerhouse for power generat i on and the thi rd used as a bypass duri ng construct i on. The bypass woul d remai n for future emergency drawdown. (4) Powerhouse: The powerhouse would be an underground cavern excavated in bedrock. Rei nforced concrete would enclose the draft tubes and spiral cases. The turbine pit, turbine floor, turbine floor walls and generator floor would be reinforced concrete. The walls above the generator floor and the ceiling would be unlined, natural rock; rock bolted and/or gunited as required for stability. Personnel and equipment would be protected from spalling rock with an aluminum alloy shield suspended from rock bolts in the crown of the cavern. An appropriate sized overhead travelling crane would be i nsta 11 ed for erection and mai ntenance of the generating equipment. II 1-11 .," '. ,. , I " ~ J '. t, 'I " ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY KISARALIK PROJECT 2 X 15MW GENERAL PLAN & LAYOUT FIGURE m-4 DATE DEC. 1979 CONTRACT 9703-1 , • Bethel -Section III APA15/E Each leg of the trifurcation would contain a spherical valve for positive closure of each waterway. The turbines and generators wll be connected by a verti ca 1 drive shaft. Each generator woul d have a continuous overload rating of 15 per cent. Tunnel & Powerhouse are shown on Figure III-6. (5) Transmission Lines: A sUbstation at the powerhouse would transform the generated voltage of 13.8 kV to the transmission voltage of 138 kV. Utilization of 138 kV nominal voltage and a 795 KCM conductor would assure adequate voltage 1 eve 1 sin Bethel. Energy losses would be low due to the relatively large conductor chosen. An overhead 1 i ne woul d stri ke northwest for approximately 56 miles turning sharply northward near Kweth 1 uk and cross the Kus kokwi m Ri ver. The 1 i ne woul d then turn southeast and terminate in a SUbstation near Bethel. The total length of the transmission line would be approxi- mate ly 69 mil es. (6) Access Roads: There are no access roads to the site at the present time. A winter access road approxi- mately 50 miles in length from the village of Akiak to the project s He waul d provi de the means of construction mobilization and demobilization. A permanent road approximately 2 miles in length would be constructed downstream from the powerhouse to the concrete aggregate borrow area. A gravel air- strip would be constructed at the end of the permanent road for project access with fixed wing aircraft. h. Environmental and Other Concerns: Preliminary investigations indicate that caribou, moose, wolf, wolverine, grizzly bear, and black bear habitats, and numerous raptor nesting sites along the Kisaralik River would probably be lost. There are no known archaeological sites in the area that would be inundated. However, to be certain that no sites are disturbed an archaeological survey should be conducted prior to construction. III-13 Bethel -Section III APAI5/E The Kisaralik river impoundment would require further study to accurately assess the fishery in the river. Chums, king and silver salmon are known to spawn in the Kisaralik River and its tributaries above the Golden Gate Falls (See Appendix 0-1). The transmission corridors would cross several small streams. As there is a possibility that the transmission 1 ine construction could introduce sediment into these streams, a study should be conducted during the detailed environmental assessment to determine the optimum methods of insuring that anadromous fish streams are protected. Use of single wire ground return transmission system, wherever possible, would minimize visual impact. i. Land Status: j. The power-development site is presently located within the proposed Yukon Delta Wildlife Refuge (Federal Land Po 1 icy Management Act of November 16, 1978, Emergency Order 204E). The 204E withdrawal is valid for 3 years. The Kisaralik River is also considered under Emergency Order 204C, which has not been invoked yet. This order would withdraw the river and a 2-4 mile corridor along each bank for a period of 20 years and be more restrictive than the 204E order. If bi 11 s HR39 or 59 pass, the Kisaralik might also be included in the "Wild & Scenic River" system. Project Construction: The project construction would be carried out by separate supply and civil works construction contracts. A single general contractor would build the project. The contractor would be required to provide access to the site by constructing necessary barge facilities on the Kuskokwim River for unloading construction equipment, materials, supplies, etc. as necessary to construct the project. The contractor woul d construct the wi nter access road, airstrip, permanent road, construction camp, etc. as well as the other project features and equipment installation. Overburden containing organic matter and decomposed rock removed from required excavations would be used as fill material in the operator housing area on the left abutment of the ri ver downstream of the powerhouse tai 1 race. III -14 .. III • .. .. Bethel -Section III APA15/E Spillway rock excavation would be used in the rockfill for the dam. Tunnel and powerhouse spoil woul d be used to surface the permanent road from the powerhouse to the airstrip. A tentative construction plan follows: (1) Fi rst Year: The contractor woul d begi n mobil; zing equipment and materials early enough to barge them to the unloading site on the Kuskokw'im River before freeze-up. C1 eari ng and construction of the access road, airstrip and transmission line would begin in early fall. Road and airstrip would be completed by year end. (2) Second Year: The contractor woul d beg; n movi ng ; n the mobil e camp and tunnel i ng equipment fi rst; followed by other necessary materials and equipment needed for the summer construction season. Upon completion of erecting the camp, shops, etc., the contractor would begin constructing the tunnel, intake, powerhouse excavation, diversion bypass and finally installing the spherical valves in the trifurcation. This work should be completed by mid-July. In early June, the contractor would begin drilling for the spillway excavation, dam stripping, rock quarrying, grout cap and preparing for the installa- tion of the cofferdam for diverting the river flow through the tunnel. Diversion should be complete by September 1 and the remaining grout cap across the river channel installed and grouting of the bedrock completed. Fill in the lower reaches of the dam could be carried out simultaneously with the completion of the grout cap and grouting. It is anticipated that rockfill would continue to be placed until the first of December. Asphalt, paving equipment, bridge crane, etc. would be barged to the landing on the Kuskokwim River. Concrete and asphalt aggregate would be processed and stockpiled during the summer. (3) Third Year: Additional equipment, materials and supplies would be transported over the winter road before breakup. 1II-15 Bethel -Section III APA15/E Spi 1 1 way excavation, dam construction, powerhouse excavation, rock bolting, etc. would resume in early summer. Transmission line clearing and construction would also commence. By the end of the third year construction season the following work should be complete: (a) Spi llway; (b) Rockfill in the dam; (c) Tailrace; (d) Powerhouse excavation; (e) Powerhouse first stage concrete; (f) Overhead travelling crane; (g) Powerhouse cavern rock bolted and crown shield install ed; (h) Intake gate, operating stem and operator; (i) Transmission line right-of-way cleared. Dur; ng the summer the contractor woul d barge the turbi nes, generators, governors and appurtenant equipment to the barge landing on the Kuskokwim River. (4) Fourth Year: The remalnlng equipment, materials and supplies to complete the project would be transported to the site over the winter road before breakup. Equipment installation would proceed upon delivery to the site (about February 1). When the weather and temperature condi t ions are suitable, the contractor would install the asphaltic concrete membrane on the face of the dam and close the intake gate to start fi 11 i ng the reservo; r. Th;s should be completed by July 15. The 7-foot high coping wall would be placed on the crest of the rockfill after the asphalt paving is complete and the closure made. Transmission line, substations and equipment installa- tion would continue through the summer and be completed by the first of November. Test i ng of equi pment woul d beg'i n in November and the first unit would be on line by the end of the fourth year. (5) Fifth Year: Testing of the second unit should be complete by the end of February and ready to go on 1 i ne. III -16 ... .. • .. ., Bethel -Section III APAIS/E The contractor would demobilize the camp, equipment, etc. and transport them to the barge landing on the Kuskokwim River. A construction schedule is included as Figw'e III-5. k. Cost Estimate: A cost estimate for the project is included as Table III-2 and 1II-3. The cost estimate is based on utilization of conventional 3$, 60 cycle generating and transmission equipment. With the relatively long transmission line required, it has briefly been investigated, whether single phase, low frequency generation and transmission could produce any cost-savings. It has been found that this alternative could result in a construction cost reduction of approxi- mately 5-7%. A description of the concept can be found in Appendix A-3. III-l7 115 0 110 0 105 0 ....... 100 0 I f-> CP .... IIJ IIJ I&. ,n 95 Z Z 0 S > 0 IIJ ..J 90 IIJ 85 0 0 80 0 I " AREA (ACRES X 1000) 12 II 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 o I I I I :~~ ---~ ! ~ i I : : I I I ! . I ~l><~ ~ ! ~ "' ~ ~,", I el">- I / I / ~ '" i I ~ / / V ( f i I I I ! I 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 CAPACITY(ACRE -FEET X 1000) , . . " ,. '. " ., ~ , "-f--. __ ... I I ! ! i i I 900 1000 ~ " " \ \ 1100 1200 KISARALIK RIVER AREA-CAPACITY CURVE FIGURE m-3 , \ 1300 , ...... ...... ...... I ....... \.0 Dillingham -Section APA 111M2 Year Item Quarter Mobilization Access Tunnel Spillway Dam Stripping Quarrying Grout Cap Cofferdam Rockfill -Dam Powerhouse Transmission & Substations Equipment Installation Testing First Unit Testing Second Unit Demobilization & Clean-Up First 1 2 3 I I I I CONSTRUCTION SCHEDULE Second 4 1 2 3 4 1 • L I I L i i- i Third Fourth 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 • I I ~ I I I ~ , I ALASKA POWER AUTHOR ITY K I SARALI K RIVER PROJ ECT CONSTRUCTION SCHEDULE FIGURE m-5 I Fifth 2 3 4 I Bethel -Section III APA 12/D1 TABLE 111-2 KISARALIK 2 x 15 MW PRELIMINARY COST ESTIMATE SUMMARY Capital Expenditures FERC ACCT. by Year in $1,000 -(1979-Base) 1982 1983 1984 1985 331 332 333 334 335 336 352 353 354 356 Hydraulic Production Plant Structures and Improvements Reservoirs, Dams & Waterways .1 Dams .2 Spillway .3 Tunnel Waterwheels, Turbines, & Generators Accessory Electrical Equipment Misc. Plant Equipment Roads (40 mi.) Transmission Plant Structures & Improvements Station Equipment Poles & Fixtures (69 mile, 138 kV, 30) Overhead Conductors & Devices General Plant 10,495 2,000 1,145 3,800 390 Structures & Improvements 381/389 Miscellaneous Direct Constr. Cost Contingencies On Underground Work (25%) All Other Work (10%) Engineering 15% of Direct Constr. Cost Total Construction Allowance for inflation (8% per year to 1984, 4% per year for 17,440 5,784 580 2,616 26,420 1985) 6,862 I nterest during Construction 9% 2,995 Total Investment 36,277 Total Project Cost in 1979 -$(1,000) Used in economic evaluation Inflated at 8% per year to 1984 and 4% thereafter results in 10,495 2,000 1,145 50 200 13,890 5,784 225 2,084 21,983 7,925 5,686 35,594 '1,405 10,495 1,145 1,675 100 1,800 2,400 50 19,970 5,784 633 2,995 29,382 13,790 ~ 52,743 99,657 15~ 1,405 5,000 650 2,300 2,300 1,166 1,748 14,569 7,694 11,574 33,837 • - - .. .. H H H TUNNEL SECTION POWERHOUSE SECTION KISARALIK RIVER HYDROELECTRIC POWER POTENTIAL TUNNEL So POWERHOUSE SECTION FIGURE m-6 ....... ....... ....... I N N I 1 f I , ZONE m MATERIAL VERSIZE ROCK ELEY. 1120 ZONE II MATERIAL IS" MAX. SIZE. PLACE 80 COMPACT IN 2' LIFTS W/4 PASSES MIN. 10 TON VISRATORY COMPACTOR . ELEY. 810 MAXIMUM DAM SECTION 2'_0" "I -js"\--i - -J _1.____ . ;,. i 1.l'-o:J: 2-0 4:;\" .. ! TYP. COPING WALL SECTION • f I MAX. W.s. ELEV. 1110 12" ABOVE CATCH POINT OF DAM HEEL ON BEDROCK • B BAR W HOOKS jrt GROUTED 1'TI B R PLACE BARS OIt'EACH SIDE OF GROUT PIPE -DIMENSIONS NORMAL TO HEEL OF DAM GROUT CAP DETAIL , KISARALIK RIVER HYDROELECTRIC POWER POTENTIAL TYPICAL DAM SECTION. GROUT CAP a COPING WALL FIGURE m-7 , APAI41I1 TABLE III-3 KISARALIK RIVER DETAILED COST ESTIMATE (1979 -$) FERC UNIT TOTAL ACCT. ITEM QUANTITY PRICE PRICE HYDRAULIC PRODUCTION PLANT 331 Structures and Improvements .1 Powerhouse Excavation, Rock 10,000 c.y. 50.00 500,00 Structure Concrete 1,200 c.y. 750.00 900,000 Structure Steel 40,000 lbs. 1. 50 60,000 Misc. Metal 20,000 lbs. 3.00 60,000 Water & Sewerage L.S. 100,000 HVAC L. S. 200,000 Entrance Structure L. S. 350,000 Miscellaneous, Lighting, Drainage, etc. L.S. 140,000 Mobil i zat ion 500 1 000 Total Account 331 $2,810,000 332 Reservoirs, Dams and Waterways .1 Dams Reservoir Clearing 10 Ac. 5,000.00 50,000 Foundation Excavation 50,000 c.y. 8.00 400,000 Embankment 2,500,000 c.y. 10.00 25,000,000 Asphaltic Concrete 25,000 tons 100.00 2,500,000 Grouting L. S. 1,000,000 Concrete Toe Block 1,600 c.y. 600.00 960,000 Mobilization 1 z575 2 OOO Subtotal $31,485,000 .2 Spi 11 way Excavation 118,000 c.y. 25.00 2,950,000 Concrete 500 c.y. 600.00 300,000 Mobilization L.S. 750 1 000 Subtotal $4,000,000 .3 Power Tunnel & Intake Rock Excavation 11,445 c.y. 200.00 2,289,000 Steel Supports 70,000 lb. 1.80 126,000 Rock Bolts 5,000 l. f. 8.00 40,000 Concrete L i n"j ng 1,250 c.y. 600.00 750,000 Coffer Dam L.S. 90,000 Wheel Gate & Frame L.S. 100,000 Trashracks 16,000 lbs. 2.50 40 2 000 Subtotal $3,435,00 Total Account 332 38,920,000 III -23 APA141I2 FERC ACCT. 333 ITEM TABLE 111-3 (continued) KISARALIK RIVER DETAILED COST ESTIMATE (1979 -$) QUANTITY UNIT PRICE TOTAL PRICE Waterwheels, Turbines & Generators .1 Turbines, 23,000 HP 2 ea . 2 ea . L.S. 1,150,000.00 2,300,000 .• 334 . 2 Generators, 15,000 kW . 3 Appurtenances Total Account 333 Accessory Electrical Equipment l. S. 335 Miscellaneous Plant Equipment .1 Spherical Valves 2 ea. .2 Bridge Crane L.S . . 3 Miscellaneous, (Fire protection, Compressed Air, etc.) L.S. Total Account 335 336 Roads Railroads & Bridges 352 353 .1 Winter Access Road 50 mi. .2 Mobilization L.S. Total Account 336 TRANSMISSION PLANT Structures .1 Concrete Foundations .2 Structural Steel Total Account 352 Station Equipment .1 Transformer 138 kV, 15 MVA . 2 Transformer 138 kV, 30 MVA .3 Oil Circuit Breakers 138 kV . 4 Three Phase Disconnects . 5 Potential Transf. 138 kV .6 Lightning Arresters 138 kV .7 Insulators, Busbar, etc. Total Account 353 l. S. l. S. 2 ea . 1 ea. 4 ea . 6 ea . 6 ea. 6 ea. l. S. III -24 1,200,000.00 2,400,000 300,000 $5,000, 000 ,~ $650,000 500,000.00 1,000,000 ,. 375,000 300 1 000 ,. $1,675,000 ,,1.,; ." 55,000.00 2 ,750,000 1z050~000 lilt $3,800,000 " II! iff' 50,000 •• 100,000 ". 150,000 '" 200,000.00 400,000 300,000.00 300,000 ,,-80,000.00 320,000 10,000.00 60,000 15,000.00 90,000 6,000.00 36,000 tI'" 594,000 $1,800,000 .'" ., "" APA14/I3 FERC ACCT. ITEM 354 Poles and Fixtures .1 Right of Way Clearing . 2 Structures TX-10 . 3 Insulators .4 Connectors & Hardware Total Account 354 TABLE 111-3 (continued) KISARALIK RIVER DETAILED COST ESTIMATE (1979 -$) QUANTITY 69 mi. 350 ea . 400 ea . L. S. 356 Overhead Conductors and Devices .1 Conductor 795 kem, ACSR 69 mi Total Account 356 GENERAL PLANT 390 Structures & Improvements L. S. 381/389 Miscellaneous DIRECT CONSTRUCTION COST III -25 UNIT PRICE 6,000.00 7,000.00 3,000.00 1,110.00 TOTAL PRICE 414,000 2,450,000 1,200,000 $ 636!OOO $4,700,000 2 1 300 2 000 $2,300,000 200,000 50,000 $62,955,000 Bethel -Section III APA15/E 2. Coal/Wood Energy Conversion and Resources a. I ntroduct ion b. Fuel resources of bituminous coal and native woods are considered for energy uses in small communities for heat and power generation. Available reports indicate that coal from the Nulato coal field, which is located closest to the Bethe 1 area, is not economi ca 11 y recoverable at this time. Assessment of wood as an energy resource is not possible with the available information. Two alternative systems using coal/wood conversion have been explored along with the economic aspects of using coal/wood fue 1 s for gene rat i on of power and heat, to show the possible effects when the resources become available. These alternative systems are presently under laboratory testing, field development or practical demonstrations but will require a few more years of operational development before being suitable for general utility use. Coal Resources Information concerning coal resources was obtained from reference [18J, Nulato Coal Field Reconnaissance Report which is duplicated in full in Appendix A-6. The report covers an area two miles either side of the Yukon River between Galena and Kaltag. The following conclusions can be drawn from this study. (1) Although several coal seams were found in the area, because the coal seams are so thin, the topography so steep and the seams di p adverse to hi 11 side exposure, no surface mining potential currently exists. (2) Due to the lack of seam thickness underground mining would be prohibitively expensive. (3) Commercial coal production is not currently feasible in the Nulato Coal Field. c. Wood Resources The western limit of wooded country is located east of Bethel. The forested areas on the upper Kuskokwim River have not been assessed in regard to their potential as an energy resource. Investigations in other parts of Alaska III -26 • • • • ... Bethel -Section III APA15/E CKobuk River) show however, that with proper management, wood could supply most of the energy needs of sma 11 communities. The following paragraphs represent an attempt to evaluate the possible uses of coal or wood on a relatively small scale. d. Community Needs: The tabulation below lists the estimated community requirements for power and heat in the Bethel area. Communities: Range of Electric Power Demand: Annual Home Heating: Annual Total Community Heating: Hourly Maximum Community Heating: 50 to 600 residences 100 kW to 4000 kW 90 X 10 6 BTU/year/residence 5.4 X 10 9 to 54 X 10 9 BTU/year 3.3 X 10 6 to 40.6 X 10 6 BTU/hour The fuel consumption for the community requirements at 0.8 plant factor using bituminous coal with an average heat of combustion of 13000 BTU/lb or native wood with an average heat of combustion of 4500 BTU/lb in the wet or green condition are as follows: Power Plant Capacity at 100 kW: or 1.2 to 1.5 tons/day/Ccoal) 3.4 to 4.5 tons/day/Cwood) Power Plant Capacity at 4000 kW: 48 to 60 tons/day/Ccoal) 140 to 170 tons/day/Cwood) The community fuel needs for space/domestic hot water heating at average hourly requirements when not having the advantage of a cogeneration plant would be: For 50 residences: or For 600 residences: or 1.9 to 2.1 tons/day/Ccoal) 5.5 to 6.1 tons/day/Cwood) 22 to 24 tons/day/Ccoal) 65 to 70 tons/day/Cwood) III-27 Bethel -Section III APA1S/E Interpolation between the values listed is proper to determine an intermediate consumption rate. Examination of these fuel requirements 'indicates that the integration of power generation with space/water heating would permit a major reduction in fuels needed for space/ water heating. e. State-of-the-Art Biomass conversion processes are listed from the current sources available in Appendix A. f. Alternative Energy Use Systems Small communities having access to resources of coal and/or wood, or biomass waste materials such as peat or agricultural wastes, could obtain more economical energy production in plants arranged for cogeneration of electric power with waste heat from the power cycle to be used for space heating and domestic hot water heating. Numerous alternative energy schemes are presently under laboratory testing, field development, or practical demonstration. Alternative plant arrangements to be considered in this report are selected from the most practical and promising schemes from the state of the art and are listed in the fo 11 owi ng decl i ni ng order of proven techno logy with; n existing systems. (1) Steam Generating Plant: Wood and/or coal fired steam boiler-steam turbine generator-extracting steam from turbine used for space heating and water heating - practical limit of 1500 kW up to the maximum of 4000 kW. Waste heat distributed to community through buried and insulated heating water conduits -which requires close spacing of structures for conduits to be economically feasible. Advantages All equipment is available from existing designs. Boiler will be able to burn other biomass materials such as community garbage, peat, or agricultural wastes. Space heating as a by-product permi ts high overall efficiencies. II 1-28 .. .. .. Bethel -Section III APA15/E Disadvantages Minimum of seven steam plant operators are required for continuous ope rat ion. Economi cs of bud ed heating conduits at $100 per linear foot is critical to the success of th; s cogeneration arrangement. Convent i ona 1 plant des i gn is too complex for the small amounts of power and heat to be generated in contrast to existing large central heating plants. Cost Estimates The cost estimates have been prepared assumi ng resource availability at $4.50 per million Btu. This represents approximately $40/ton of wood and $1l7/ton of coal delivered in Bethel. With the limited information available on the resources, a second case with half the above fuel cost has also been investigated. Wood/Coal fired steam boiler-steam turbine generation Capacity 5000 kW Capital cost plant (1979-$) $2,500/kW Fuel cost, delivered $4.50 ($2.25)/million BTU or $100 ($50)/5000 lbs Plant factor 0.5 Annual Cost (1979-$) Fixed charges at 35 years $ 965,375 life and 7% interest (capital recovery factor 0.07723) o & M cost at 18% of initial costs $2,250,000 Fuel costs at $4.50 ($2.25)/10 6 BTU for wood waste delivered as wet or green fuel with plant heat rate of 14000 BTU input/kW-hr. (21,900 MWH/yr) $1,379,700 Total power generation costs at the plant busbar $4,595,075 or 21¢/kWh (965,375) (2,250,000) (689,850) (3,905,225) (17.8¢/kWh) This compares to 11¢/kWh for diesel generation in 1979. III-29 Bethel -Section III APA15/E (2) Biomass Gasifier: The second configuration of an energy plant to be considered for each community would include a biomass gasifier accepting a mixture of reduced size wood, coal, peat, agri-wastes, or dry refuse as fuel with a gas output of a low heat value (150 BTU/C. F. ). This low BTU gas could be adapted for use as fuel in existing gas water heaters, space heating gas furnaces and gas engine driven generators of piston type for small communities or gas turbine type for the larger communities. The gas distribution system would be adapted to suit the community residences with the lowest capi ta 1 cost arrangement most probab ly consisting of pressurized gas mains routed to each residence and to each power generator engine. Since the district heating type of steam-condensate mains would not be economically justified for this arrange- ment, the waste heat in the gas turbi ne exhaust would be best utilized in a recuperator for improved cycle efficiency. An alternative gas turbine arrangement is the semi-open loop cycle as developed by Hague International and Solar Aircraft as outlined in Appendi x A; thi s cyc 1 e has the advantage of allowing clean air to pass through the turbine with reduced maintenance. Some representative small size gas turbines that might be adapted for this application include the following: AVCO Lycoming Ruston Bet-Shemesh Centrax Garrett Kawasaki Klockner-Deutz 1. H. I. Microturbo TF 25 TA 1750 M2TL Type 33 IE 831 SIA-02 T 216 IGT-90 101 Consequent ly, the range of gas could be made adaptable to the power loads of 100 to 4000 kW. flame out at part load with the required. II 1-30 1835 kW 1365 kW 720 kW 500 kW 490 kW 180 kW 80 kW 45 kW 30 kW turbines available range of community Protection against low BTU gas would be • • Bethel -Section III APA15/E Cost Estimates The cost estimates have been prepared assumi ng resource avail abil ity at $4.50 per mi 11 ion Btu. Thi s represents approximately $40/ton of wood and $l17/ton of coal de 1 i vered in Bethe 1. With the limited information available on the resources, a second case with half the above fuel cost has also been investigated. Low BTU gas production Generator capacity Capital cost for plant plus heat recovery (1979-$) Fuel cost delivered Plant factor (1979-$) Annual Cost Fixed charges at 35 year life and 7% interest capital recovery factor 0.07723) o & M costs at 15% of initial cost Fuel costs $4.50 (2.25)/10 6 BTU for fuel at 18000 BTUI kW-hr. heat rate (21,900 MWH/yr) Total power generation cost at the plant bus bar or 5000 kW 2000/kW $4.50/million BTU or 117 (58)/ton 0.5 $ 772,300 $1,500,000 $1,773,900 $4,046,200 18.5¢/kWh $ (772,300) $(1,500,000) $( 886,950) $(3,159,250) (14.4¢/kWh) This compares to 11¢/kWh for diesel generation in 1979. Advantages Five multiple fuels fed to the gasifier have the potential of a reliable supply and potential cost savings. A common fuel supply piped through un- insulated gas mains feeding conventional gas water and space heaters is most similar to conventional low cost residential systems. 111-31 Bethel -Section III APA15/E Gas turbine cycle for power generation would require less operating staff because it is simpler than the alternative of a steam boiler-turbine power plant which would require a cooling tower, numerous water piping and pumping systems, chemical make up water treatment and auxiliary systems not required by a gas turbine cycle. Gas turbine cycle using all clean air should have reduced maintenance and improved re 1 i ab i1 ity. Disadvantages Wood-coal-biomass gasifiers are still in developmental stage even though the state of the art began in Germany in 1839, in France in 1840, in Sweden in 1845 and in Engl and in 1879. Gas burners wi 11 requi re adaptation for use wi th the low BTU gas. This gas cannot be used in conventional gas ranges nor in systems subject to leaks since it contains carbon monoxide. Cost estimates for the power heat system cannot be accurate for the present. (3) Another alternative biomass energy use scheme would be similar to that described before except that the residence space and water heating systems would be replaced by direct burning air tight wood stoves to be installed in each residence. The gas main distribution system as outlined in paragraph (2) would be deleted. The gas turbine-gasifier cycle would not require revision except for sizing. Advantages A current federal tax incentive program is provided for installing wood burning stoves. New technology would not have to be developed for this portion. Disadvantages Wood fuel for residences would require local dry covered storage areas sufficient to cover bad weather periods when normal supply is interrupted. Hand firing of stoves is not as convenient as gas fired units described before. II 1-32 .. • - .. Bethel -Section III APAIS/E Economic Aspects: The biomass energy conversion systems as applied to the Bethel area can be only approximate estimates because of the small scale of the plants, the known spacing between residences, the transport and storage costs for the fuels from source (mine or forest) to user could not be identified, and special design considerations in regard to the arctic climate have only been taken into account in the order of magnitude. 111-33 Bethel -Section III APA15/E REFERENCES 1. Stambler, Irwin; Wood Burning Cogeneration Plant with 65% Efficiency; Gas Turbine World; September 1979. 2. Fox, E. C., and Anderson, T. D.; Convers i on to Coal in the Industrial Sector: A Study of the Problems and Potential Solutions; U.S .. Department of Energy/Oak Ridge National Laboratories; CONF-780801-34; 1978. 3. International Engineering Company; 55 MW Power Plant: H~brid - Geothermal-Wood Resldue wlth Cogeneration Wendel-Amedee KGRA, Lassen County, California; State of California, Department of Water Resources, Energy Oivision; May 1978. 4. 5. 6. 7. B. Brown, Owen D., P.E.; Energy Generation from Wood-Waste; Eugene Water & Electric Board, Eugene, Oregon; Extracted from "Wo6d Ener~y -Proceedings of governor William G. Milliken's Conference held in Ann Arbor, Michigan, November 29, 1977. Noonan, Frank; The Utilization of Forest Biomass for Electric Power Generation: An Economic Feasibility Study; Extracted from "Wood Enerw -Proceedi ngs of Governor wi lliam G. Mill i ken IS Conference held in Ann Arbor, Michigan, November 29, 1977. Power Engineering; Waste Wood and Bark; p. 43; May 1979. Williams, R. O. and Horsfield, B.; Generation of Low-BTU Fuel Gas from Agricultural Residues, Experiments with a Laboratory Scale Gas Producer; University of California, Davis, Department of Agricultural Engineering; April 1977. Battelle Columbus Laboratories; Preliminary Environmental Assess- ment of Biomass Conversion to Synthetic Fuels; Industrial Environmental Research Laboratory, Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Cincinnati, Ohio; EPA-600/7-78-204; pp. 110-111; October 197B. 9. Moody, Dale R.; Advances in Utilizing Wood Residue and Bark as Fuel for a Gas Turbine: Forest Products Journal, Vol. 26, No.9; September 1976. 10. Hagen, Kenneth G.; Wood Fueled Combined Cycle Gas Turbine Power Plant; Hague International, South Portland, Maine; Presented at the California Energy Commission, Energy-From-Wood- Workshop; July 15, 1977. 11. Power; 1977 Annual Plant Design Survey, Fossil-Fired Central Sections; p. S.4; November 1977. III-34 ... ., .., .' lit . • Bethel -Section III APA15/E 12. Culbertson, Robert W.; Onsite Conversion of Coal to Gas; Plant Engineering; March 16, 1978. 13. Moskowitz, S. and Weth, G.; Pressurized Fluidized Bed Pilot Plant for Production of Electric Power Using High Sulfur Coal; Curtiss-Wright Corp.7ERDA; Extracted from Proceedings of the 12th Inter-society Energy Conversion Engineering Conference, Volume 1 of 2, #779108, Washington, D. C., August 28 - September 2, 1977. 14. Schwieger, Robert G.; Burning Tomorrow's Fuels -Gases: Low-BTU; Power; p. S.4; February 1979. 15. Pease, David A.; Green Bark Replaces Natural Gas as Plywood Plant's Energy Source; Forest Industries; October 1977. 16. Personal Corres ondence with Catalo ue Bulletin #1176) from John C. Calhoun, Jr. of orest Fuels anufacturing, Inc., Wood-To-Gas Energy Systems, Antrim, New Hamsphire, to Thomas J. Beard, Director of Fire Management Staff of Lassen National Forest, Susanville, California, November 17, 1977. 17. Power; 1977 Annual Plant Design Survey, Industrial Steam; p. S.12; November 1977. 18. Nulato Coal Field Reconnaissance Report, October 24, 1979, Marks Engineering, Anchorage, Alaska. III -35 Bethel -Section III APA15/E 3. Geothermal Potential a. Introduction Three hot spri ngs have been reported in the Kuskokwim region; (1) the Mitchell site in the Chuilnuk Mountains, (2) the Tuluksak hot springs near Nyac, and (3) the Ophir Creek hot springs near White Bear Lodge. The Ophir Creek occurrence is the only one wh; ch i s currently bei ng utilized. Mr. Faulkner of White Bear Lodge uses a portion of the spring to heat his home and lodge facility. Temperatures and flow rates in all three springs are too low to allow anything but local utilization. The three hot springs are described in the following pages. III-36 .I\t'" Bethel -Section III APA15/E SITE: LATITUDE & LONGITUDE: QUADRANGLE: BARRIER: DESCRIPTION: Mitchell 61° 18 1 N., 157° 40 1 W. Approx. Sleetmute T14N, R47W, SW Approx. Remote The Chuilnuk mountains are centered on a semielliptical stock. The exposed contacts of the stock dip generally outward. The contacts are well exposed. The stock is completely surrounded by a contact metamorphic zone in adjacent sedimentary rocks. This zone averages 2 miles (3 km) wide. A well defined fault is noted on the north front of the mountains. The stock in the Chuilnuk mountains range from granodiorite on the west, comparable to that of Kiok1uk mountains, through quartz monzonite, to granite on the east. The presence of the granodiorite on the west side of the stock, nearest to the Kiokluk mountains, suggests that the rocks of the two stocks derived from a common magmat i c source, connected at depth. The igneous rocks of the mountains are unaltered. Hot Springs occur along the Northeastern contacts of the stock near the largest of several lakes. (Cady 1965). The hot springs of the Mitchell site in the Chuilnuk mountains were visited in 1975 by representatives of the Calista Native Corporation. In a letter to the State Energy Office, Mr. Ron Dagon of ESCA-Tech made the following observations: "Active thermal discharge takes place within an area 3000 1 x 1000 1 from numerous springs and seeps. Water temperatures have been measured for most of the area within a range of 50° to 150°F, and at an approximate average of 100°F. No vapor discharge was observed when the site was last visited but the rate of discharge from these springs is on the order of 25 gallonsl second. Exotic vegetation surrounds the spring area and a local abundance of animals was noted by the field crew.1I The above characteristics do not indicate that large-scale generation of electricity is feasible, although the discharge could furnish heat to large hatchery or other development. Small-scale electrical generation for local use only might be possible using a small ORMAT-type generator. These hot springs constitute the most important known geothermal resources along the Kuskokwim drainage. SOCIQ-ECONOMIC: The land near Chuilnik mountain has been selected by the State of Alaska under terms of the statehood act. The location of this system is very remote. The nearest population is Sleetmute 25 miles (40 km) to the north. The mode of transportation to the springs would probably have to be by helicopter. I II -37 . il. f III I 1 I 1 :1 !:.-'. /'.. l'Ii(HI~lAI! ,.." Ml ; 'I (:1 1';,'\ i II ! I~. j' l' ,.'", ,., ! ~ I J I; t l Ii f f f j I mOl , SCALF I 63360 . , ('ONTOUR INTERVAL 50 FEET I: l Nf S r;[PR[SENl 25-FO:)1 CON10URS MEAl\ Sf A SLEETMUTE (8-5), ALASKA iOr)') E .-::,j l<'l"}ME [::1.<; FIGURE 1II-3.1 " Bethel -Section III APAIS/E No exploration has taken place on this spring system. Any future application would require~temperature and flow rates measurements. The Kuskokwim mountains are part of an extensive mineralized zone. Rare metals have been found in the streams. 111-39 Bethel -Section III APA15/E SITE: LATITUDE & LONGITUDE: QUADRANGLE: BARRIER: DESCRIPTION: Tuluksak 61 0 00' N., 160 0 30' W. Approx. Russian Mission/Bethel T10N R63W SM Approx. Remote There has been a reported hot spri ng along the Tu 1 uksak River. Algae growth and a distinct sulphurous odor were reported. (Waring 1917) . The geology of the region is covered in the flats by coastal and alluvium sediments. Jurassic to Cretaceous interbedded layers of graywacke and shale outcrop in the hills. Cretaceous granite rocks intrude these sediments. (Selkregg 1976). Little is known about the Tuluksak hot springs. Their precise location is not referred to ;n the literature, although they are approximately twenty miles up the TuluKsak River from the village of Tuluksak. Without further information the value of the site is impossible to assess. If the site had suitable characteristics, its heat might be used locally for a fish hatchery or for a greenhouse. Due to the lack of greater surface manifestations, it is doubtful that a large resource exists here. SOCIO-ECONOMIC: The hot springs are presently contained within the proposed "Yukon Delta" National Wildlife Refuge. The nearest village is Tuluksak at the confluence of the Tuluksak and Kuskokwim rivers. Tuluksak River is navigable over much of its course. The springs are approximately 20 miles (32 km) from the village. They are also 15 miles (24 km) from Nyac mining camp. Air service is available from Bethel to either of these areas. One swamp buggy road exists from Nyac along the Tuluksak River. The springs have had no evaluation. In fact, they have not even been confirmed at this time. If a viable resource can be confirmed, a possible development project could establish a market for fresh vegetables. This would supplement the subsistence lifestyle of the area residents. Geothermal energy could make this a viable project. III-41 .. III .. ; { I' : i, FIGURE III-3.2 ? '~~'"'' , I em, TOIJR INH.Rvtl l'reT P;1 if P L:NI J t~: f'i<1 :~Hil H'lil, ;~', ,,-", III' f.." 1', t-HI\N ~lA lL'lti ." !I \'1 IAN MISSION (A-41 fA-51 RFTHFI tn-4i (0-51 ·TTT ...; I,? Bethel -Section III APA15/E SITE: LATITUDE & LONGITUDE: QUADRANGLE: BARRIER: DESCRIPTION: Ophir Creek 61° 111 N; 159 0 51 1 W Russian Mission, T13N, R59W, Section 21 Remote A spring occurs on Hot Springs Creek at the headwaters of Ophir Creek within the Kilbuck Mountains PGRA 274,856 acres (111,234 hectares). The valley floor slopes at about five degrees and adjacent hill slopes are about 10-15 degrees. The Ophir Creek drainage descends down the northeastern flank of Mt. Hamilton. The main bedrock types underlie the Ophir Creek valley. The mountains to the south of Ophir Creek and the divide between hot springs and Ophir Creek are composed of intrusive igneous rocks of granitic composition. The igneous intrusion is a stock composed predominantly of quartz monzonite of Tertiary Age. The stock has been intruded into Cretaceous volcanic rocks, chiefly massive andesitic flows interbedded with greywacke, siltstone, pebble conglomerate, limestone and shale. These rocks outcrop to the east, north and west of Ophir Creek (Baker, 1977). The springs are composed of one major and one minor pool near the head of the Hot Springs Creek valley. The Ophir Creek hot springs discharge at approximately five gallons per second, with an observed temperature of about 140°F. Presently, the lease holder, Mr. Harry E. Faulkner, diverts water through a 4" (10 cm) pipe 1,500 feet (457 m) to his house for heating purposes. The 4" line diverts a third of the output of the springs. The rest of the flow runs into a nearby creek. In a 1976 report produced by a Mr. William Ogle, he suggests that the springs could support a salmon hatchery which could produce up to 200,000 smo 1 ts per year. Because of thei r low temperature and small discharge there is little chance that the springs could support a large scale development. SOClO-ECONOMIC: Approximately 40 acres of land surrounding the geothermal springs is subject to a mineral springs lease issued to Harry E. Faulkner, P.O. Box 153, Bethe 1, Alas ka 99559 (IFF 019136). A 11 the 1 and below the geothermal spring along Hot Springs Creek to its confluence with Ophir Creek, including the airstrip, is owned by Mr. Faulkner as a homestead and patented land. Surrounding lands are classified as public interest lands (d)(l). 1II-43 / / \ 5 J! 20 APPHOXI MA rr MI AN I , I 4 1ft; 21 ~ '! j;;- / /' / -5,1 11 i ···>ib 2~ . ': 3~3------~~--~~ 1 I ' ) . 2 SCALE 1 fi3360 CONrOUR INTERVAL SO Ff:ET D(;TT(L' L,N!,:; R[pr,t.SEt-H .:rJ_~~;OT , NATIONAL GEODETIC VERTICAL DATUM 4 MILES =~=:=--==--==-l FI GURE II 1-3.3 .. .. .' • .. • .. • .. Bethel -Section III APA15/E An historical place application AA 10267 has been filed by Calista Corporation upstream in nearby Section 28. The State Fish and Game Department has rated the spring as being a moderate potential fish hatchery site. The major drawback was the logistics of building it there. The associated fishermen of Lower Yukon and Kuskokwim regions and Calista Native Corporation have been interested in the salmon enhancement possibilities of Ophir hot springs. There are also mining interests in the area. 111-45 Bethel -Section III APA15/E BIBLIOGRAPHY Dagon, Ron, 1976, Letter report to the Alaska Energy Office, Ms. Joan Ray; ESCA-Tech/Calista Corporation. Markle, Don, 1978, Unpublished reports on Geothermal Site in Alaska; State of Alaska, Department of Commerce and Economic Development, Division of Energy and Power Development. Ogle, William, 1976, Report of a visit to Ophir Hot Springs (White Bear Lodge); Energy Systems, Inc. U.S.G.S. Circular 790, 1978, Assessment of Geothermal Resources of the United States. III-46 .. ... - • 11/ • .. .. .. .. • .. Bethel -Section III APA15/E 4. Wind Potential -Bethel Area a. Introduction This is a preliminary survey of the wind energy potential of the communities in the Bethel area. This potential relates to the practical application of wind energy extracted by a contemporary wind energy conversion system (WECS) . The history of use of wind generation units is very limited in Alaska. There is a spasmodic use of wind power along the western coast of Alaska, continuing on a small scale today. WECS have in the past been installed in Dillingham, Unalaska, Big Delta, and Kotzebue and none of these systems is presently operational. The Geophysical Institute of the University of Alaska operated a WECS at Ugashik in 1975. A small unit at Port Alsworth is presently providing significant power to a private residence and another small machine is operational today at Portage Creek. The central questi on addressed here, however, is the magnitude of the wind resource available for electrifi- cation or supplemental supply of energy to villages and communities. b. Wind Generation The extraction of energy from wind has been accomplished since the earliest days of interest. Multiblade wind mills have been a part of the American farm and homestead scene for over a century, and have been used to pump domestic and irrigation water, generate electricity and perform similar functions. Most are small, with typical power ratings of less than one horsepower. Windmills are generally connected to an electric generator (either direct or via a gear arrangement). The energy generated is either AC or DC. Most wind generating systems built in the past employ an energy storage system (batteries) and an inverter to make the stored DC energy compat i b 1 e with 60 cyc 1 e AC equ i pment. The equ i pment required for these conversions is costly and reduces the efficiency of the plant. Recently small wind generators employing induction generators have become available. Induction generators can only be used as part of a system where voltage and frequency are maintained and reactive power is supplied by other generating means (synchronous generator). Conversion equipment can then be eliminated. Approximately 1/3 of a system l s basic demand can be supplied by induction generators without causing instability 1II-47 Bethel -Section III APA15/E 1 c. or reqUlrlng additional reactive power supplies. If these conditions can be met, the use of induction generators can lower the cost of a wi nd generator i nsta 11 at ion considerably. The life expectancy is generally assumed to be 5-10 years. Cost estimates for two arrangements are given in Appendix B. Wi nd power suffers from one obvi ous di sadvantage; the intermittent and fluctuating nature of wind itself. When a wind energy conversion system (WECS) cannot be used where its full instantaneous output is used to supply the load while displacing utility supplied power, an energy storage system must be contemplated -at cons i derab 1 e expense. The consensus today is that the most cost effective way to use wind power is on a utility grid to save fue 1 when the wi nd blows and eli mi nate the extra costs for batteries and inverters. A small utility system must therefore install sufficient primary generation capacity! to provide for its total firm capacity require- ments. This basic power supply system must also be able to accomodate the relatively unpredictable energy input from wind powered units. To date wind machines have not found widespread use in industry or in utility systems. With the steadily increasing cost of fossil fuel and its major influence on the costs of fuel generated electricity, the interest in utilizing wind generators is increasing. Basic Definitions and Methodology The primary criterion for determining the feasibility of WECS use is the average wind speed V at the rotor hub height h of a WECS. An annual V of 12 MPH is desirable, but lower V may still be useful in energy-deficient areas. The pr; nci pa 1 equations be low wi 11 be used, always leading toward the calculation of the average power PM produced by a wind machine. Thus, monthly and annual V for each community are sought. i.e., diesel, gas turbine, hydro. 1II-48 - • ., • ., ." Bethel -Section III APA15/E (1) Power in the nd (no WECS involved here) A wi nd wi th instantaneous speed V wi 11 have an instantaneous power density or flux PIA (for a vertical or "sheet of wind" area A) of (1) Co depends on the uni ts of A and V, and the ai r density. The average power flux Pw/A in a wind regime (the collection of V values over a long period, say a month or year) is not (2) but is (3) The value of f(k) depends on the speed distribution of the winds, i.e., the shape of the so-called frequency distribution curve. For Alaskan winds f(k) = 2.14 is a good value for estimation purposes, and it is used herein when actual f(k) are not known. Then, for A in square meters, V in miles per hour (MPH), Co is 0.05472 if Pw is in watts (w) and equation (3) becomes (4) 1II-49 Bethel -Section III APA15/E So, a rough "rule-of-thumbll is that the average power flux of a wind regime is 1/8 of the cube of the average wind speed, for the units given above. However, see the caution under "Power Output of a WECS II regarding use of equation (4). It is important to remember that the above refers to the power (or energy content) of the wind. Now the question of the energy extraction by a WECS must be considered. In the following this is done, in terms of average power del ivered at the output of the wi nd-dri ven turbi ne (generator), with no further losses such as those due to transmi ss i on 1 i nes, inverters, etc., be; n9 cons i dered. (2) Power Output of a WECS: The average power produced by a speci fi c (model, size, etc.) WECS is defined as PM' One can define an analog to the wind flux Pw/A by PM/A, where in the windmill case A is the disc area swept out by the blades. There is no theoretical simple relation- ship between Pw and PM' except that, of course, the larger the Pw the larger the expected PM' Detailed calculations of the coupling of a windmill with a given power characteristic (PM vs. V) and the actual full wind distribution curve for a given location lead to a set of values Pw V. This is displayed in Figure 1II-8 with the associated computational procedure given later. III -50 • ., • • .' .. Bethel -Section III APA15/E One must be careful in applying equation (4) to engineering situations. While the mean wind power flux is useful as a guide to determining the wind power potential of a site, the Pw/A is appreciably greater than PM/A. First, only 59.3% of Pw/A at most can be extracted by an ideal single unshrouded disc WECS, and then only if the WECS operates at all V in the wi nd spectrum. Thi sis limitation (like the Carnot Law). cut-in and cut-out V of a WECS make a fundamental In practice some of the wind spectrum unusable. Second, for a rotor the efficiency or power coeffi ci ent at vari ous Vis vari ab 1 e, ranging from zero to some maximum value (0.3 to 0.45 at best) and then back to zero, for increasing V. This power coefficient depends on the ratio of the wi nd V I rotat i ona 1 speed of the blade tips. There are additional inefficiencies, as in any geared rotat i ng system. Thus, in practice the PM/A of contemporary wind machines will be of the order of 115 to 1/10 of Pw/A. (3) Computation Method: Given the assumption of a specific WECS installed at a hub height hi (above ground) where the average wind speed is Vi' the mean average power PM from the WECS can be predicted from simple empirical equations. These are of the polynomial form (5) I II -51 Bethel -Section III APA15/E The a i depend, of course, on the machine selected. Table III-l gives the a i for two contemporary machines; one is rated (maximum power) at 15 kW, the other at 100 kW. For most locations the hi of installation will be different from the ha of anemometers yielding the measured Va' The key relationship here is (6) where a good approximation is p = 0.2. Equations (5) and (6) are the most important equations used herein. Justification of these, especially in determination of the ai' is outlined here. The first step in getting the a i of equation (5) requires that the frequency statist; cs (% of the time the wind blows at a specific V) are summed in a way to yield the V and also the so-called wind speed V duration curve. The latter gives the fraction or percentage of the time of the measurement peri od that the wi nd blew at V or greater than V. The duration curve is then coupled with the WECS power characteristic PM vs. V to provide a third curve giving the percentage of time the WECS delivers a given P. See Figure III-B. The area under this last curve is then the total energy extracted by the WECS, since the product of power and time is energy. Thus this total energy divided by the absolute time (e.g. in hours) of the V measurement period gives the average power PM for the period involved. In this way a large number of V statistics from the wind regime are boiled down to a single PM' V point III-52 II' • .. • lIII • .. .. • t v FURLING _____________________ .. ______ ...::L... ___ ~ v % t V>V LIMITING DURATION CURVE ! I VCUT-IN I WECS CHARACTERISTIC -------/---------- I I I I I 100 I I I I I I L ______ 1 ________ _ I I I I I I I PRATED L ______________ ---a..~:; L ________________ ----4~~~~~~~~q -P COMBINATION OF A WIND SPEED DURATION CURVE AND WECS POWER CHARACTERISTIC TO OBTAIN THE WECS TOTAL ENERGY PRODUCTION For the \\fECS I V 1 = limiting V; V co = cut-out or furling V The average power P is obtained from the total energy produced (shaded area) divided by the total absolute time of the measurement period of the duration curve (taking into account that the curves above express time as a percentage of the period involved). III -53 FIGURE III - 8 t V 100 % t. V::V Bethel -Section III APA15/E characterizing the behavior of a given WECS at a specific location for a selected period. Then a large number of such points can be used to obtain plots and curve fitting computer routines yield fits (give the a i ) corresponding to the plotted points. For example, several hundred duration curves from 50 Alaskan sites have been treated to arrive at the constants of Table 111-4. (4) WECS Power Production: (a) Average Powers: Detailed calculations of PM were made for two contemporary WECS. The results are given in Table III-4. This data represents magnitudes to be expected, but does not indicate optimum performance. (i) 15 kW-rated WECS: Thi s machi ne (25 ft. disc) is not optimized; the rotor and controls evidently are designed to limit (at 15 kW) before the 20 kW generator capability. It is inherently a high V machi ne. It is a prototype of the WECS being tested at Nelson Lagoon, which may be rated near 20 kW. (i i) 100 kW-rated WECS: Thi s machi ne (125 ft. disc) as used in our calculations involves a rotor capable of over 200 kW mechani ca 1 dri ve to the generator. The prototype used a 100 kW-rated generator, but a new III-54 ... • .. , • .. • ., Bethel -Section III APA15/E TABLE 1II-4 AVERAGE POt-IER OUTPUT POL YNOf4IAL COEFFIC I ENTS FOR CONTEMPORARY WECS Max. P a o \ a 1 a2 a 3 (Ra ted Pl .. 15 Id~ -0.247 -0.1169 4.333 E-2 -9.041 E-4 100 kH -19.59 3.222 0.1935 -7.280 E-3 III -55 Bethel -Section III APAIS/E vers i on wi th a 200 kW generator is now operational at Clayton, NM. Thus, one can estimate that a WECS with an 88 ft. disc and 100 kW generator woul d produce PM similar to our tabulated values. The PM in the tables are for the heights and sites designated, but correspond to the Windspeed. Thus, these are also applicable to other situations where the designated windspeed may exist. (b) Duration of Wind Power: The power output (PM) quoted take into account the wind variability, including calm periods. Thus, PM will range from zero to the rated PM; hence power conditioning and distribution equipment must be rated at the maximum WECS power. Energy storage is not considered here, since, for municipal systems a better and well-developed approach is the synchronous inverter or an induction generator. A windspeed of about 12 MPH has been used in USDOE wind power work as a practical criterion for economically viable use of WECS. This criterion can be changed, depending on the other energy sources at a 1 ocat i on and the fossil fuel costs there. Table III-S show that this Windspeed is available at Bethel for all months, at 60 ft. II I-56 .. • • .. ., Bethel -Section III APA15/E TABLE III-5 WECS MEAN OUTPUT POWER, MEAN KWH Bethel 15 and 100 kW-Rated WECS at H = 60 ft. P in table are mean Powers. v (mph)! V (mph)2 P(15) Energy P(100) Energy Month 20 ft. 60 ft. kW kWh (15) kW kWh (100) January 12.2 15.2 4.8 3,570 48.5 35,710 February 13.1 16.3 5.4 3,630 52.8 35,480 March 12.3 15.3 4.8 3,570 48.9 36,380 April 15.5 14.3 4.3 3,100 44.8 32,260 May 10.5 13.1 3.6 2,680 39.5 29,390 June 10.2 12.7 3.4 2,450 39.6 27,070 July 10.0 12.5 3.3 2,450 36.7 27,300 August 10.5 13.1 3.6 2,680 39.5 29,390 September 10.6 13.2 3. 7 2,660 39.9 28,730 October 11.0 13.7 4.0 2,980 42.2 31,550 November 11.4 14.2 4.2 3,020 44.3 31,900 December 11. 3 14.1 4.2 3,120 43.9 32,660 Annual 11. 2 13.9 4.1 35,910 43.1 377 ,820 1 Wind data obtained from the Alaska Regional Profiles, Volume III, Southwest Regions. Wind velocity recording height assumed as 20 ft. 2 Calculated wind velocity using equation (5) page 111-49. III-57 Bethel -Section III APAI5/E d. Economi c Ana lys is: e. There is general agreement that the correct criterion for the economic selection of a generating unit is that its cost, when combined with those of other generating units making up a total electric utility generating system, should result in minimum cost of electricity while maintaining an adequate level of reliability of service to the consumer. The established method of checking this criterion ;s that of simulating total utility generating system performance and cost over a period of time which represents a major fraction of the 1 ife of the uni ts under consideration. Since the WECS units discussed here produce only secondary energy the economic analysis of the wi nd energy supported system vs. the same system without wind energy need consider only the cost of fuel displaced by the WECS. (It;s assumed that all other costs of the basic power supply system are incurred in either case). Fuel Displacement Cost: The process of fuel displacement cost is simple. Calculate the annual fixed charges on the WECS unit's investment, plus its annual operation and maintenance costs; calculate the annual fuel cost at the average heat rate of a thermal unit to provide an equivalent amount of energy, total the costs for each method, and divide by the kilowatt hours generated. The resulting ratio is $/kWh. The difference in $/kWh between the two methods ;s a direct comparison of the savings or deficit expected when using a WECS to displace fossil fuel. Figure 1II-9 shows the breakeven cost per gallon of di ese 1 fuel above whi ch i nsta 11 at i on of a 15 kW and a 100 kW WECS becomes economical for various WECS utilization factors. The utilization factor is defined as the percentage of annual e 1 ectri ca 1 energy ava"j 1 ab 1 e from the WECS which is actually utilized. This factor accounts for machine malfunctions, excess energy produced during light load conditions, maintenances etc. The graphs show that the breakeven cost is quite sensititve to the utiliza- t; on factor. The following is a listing of statements and assumptions used in preparation of these graphs: (1) A 15 kW machine is used for cost comparison in small communities having a peak load of 100 kW's or less. The larger 100 kW machines could present system II I-58 ft· ",. • • • • 30 25 20 J: 3= ~ ........ ~ l- fI) 15 0 u z 0 i= u :::l Q 0 cr l1-10 (/) u IJJ 3: 5 l 0 15 KW WECS AT SHOWN UTILIZATION ___ jif'=" BREAKEVEN" FUEL COST I I DIESEL COST AT 8.5 KWH/GAL. GENERATING EFFICIENCY _____ 80% ___ -------------- I I ___ ~O% __ I --T------ ___ 100% __ I I I I --I --T--- I I I I I I GENERATING EFFICIENCY I I 100KW WECS I AT SHOWN I I I I I I UTILIZATION I I ~~t1 I I I ,I I I = I~~~ =---1-__ , I I I I I , I I I I 'I I I I I I I I , , I II , , I I 'I I I I I , , , I I I I I I I, I , , I, , I I I , I , I I I I I I I I, I , I : ~ I I I I I I J I II J I .5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.15 3.0 DIESEL FUEL COST I + /GAL FIGURE m -9 111 -59 Bethel -Section III APA1S/E stability problem during high windspeeds and light load conditions without additional costly controls. Generating efficiency for small village diesel plants assumed at 8.S kWh/gal. Maximum annual WECS output = 35,910 kWh. (2) A 100 kW machine is assumed installed in the Bethel system where its full instantaneous output power can be utilized. Generating efficiency for the Bethel utility is assumed at 13.0 kWh/gal. Maximum annual WECS output = 377,820 kWh. (3) Present fuel oil prices at Bethel -0.89/gal. Villages -$1.60/gal. (4) WECS maintenance cost estimated at $2,000 per year for IS kW machine and $6,000 per year; 100 kW machine. (S) Cost estimates for the WECS can be found in Appendix B. (6) A single interest rate of 9% is used to determine the WECS fixed annual charges. This rate is felt .to be representative of a interest rates obtainable for such projects. (7) A 15 year payoff period is assumed. Graph 111-9 clearly illustrates that at the current fuel prices (October 1979) of $0.89 per gallon in Bethel and $1.60 per gallon in many of the surrounding small villages, WECS is becoming an increasingly competitive energy source. This does not imply, however, that we should proceed headlong and install a WECS in every small village. What the graphs do illustrate, however, is that the cost of energy produced by a WECS is now comparable to the fuel cost of energy produced by convention fuel oil fired generation. In this light, if would seem useful that stUdies be made to formulate a long range plan to implement the i ntegrat i on of WECS into the power gri d of "bush" communities should other renewable resources such as hydro be unavailable. This plan should include sufficient research, development and testing of selected WECS to insure a reliable, maintenance free machine capable of operat i ng unattended for long peri ods of t"j me in the severe weather conditions encountered in Alaska. I II -60 .. • ., .. .. Bethel -Section III APA15/E There are unfortunately a great many additional factors beside strictly energy cost which have further limited the use of WECS by electric utilities. These include but are not limited to the following: (1) Beside the fickleness of local wind conditions, technical environmental, and social problems must be addressed. Technical and social barriers that must be dealt with include power system stability; voltage transients; harmonics; fault-interruption capability; effects on communications and TV transmission; public safety; legal liabilities and insurance; and land use issues. (2) Wind machines are susceptible to damage during high wind conditions. High winds and/or strong wind gusts can cause blade or tower structure failure. (3) The questionable reliability associated with present day wind machines limit the use of wind generation by electric utilities. Investment costs, maintenance costs, etc, for a WECS which is not operational increase the overall cost of power ina system without the benefit of supplemental energy being available. (4) WECS as used in this evaluation are not stand alone systems. They require a stable external voltage and frequency source to which they may be synchronized. This is generally provided by intertying the WECS to a utility grid or fuel fired generation units. If a grid is not existing, energy storage and conversion equipment have to be added. (5) Wind power energy ;s a supplementary or secondary form of energy and there must at all times be sufficient conventional generation or energy storage to IIbackup" the WECS. It should be further emphasized that most of today's wind machines which are capable of generating large quantities of power are prototypes and not production model machines. It will take a few years of testing to ensure a reliable machine suitable for production and sale to the utilities. In summary, although the technical feasibility of wind power has been demonstrated many times over, its fluctuating nature, quest i onab 1 e re 1 i ab i 1 i ty under severe weather conditions and the present cost of equipment, still make III-61 Bethel -Section III APA15/E it a marginal proposition for most utility applications. However, a long range plan to consider the intergration of WECS into the power grids of small communities where other renewable resources are unavailable should be made. I II -62 .. ' • .. • • .' • • Bethel -Section III APA15/E REFERENCES 1. Bristol Bay Energy and Electric Power Potential, U.S. Department of Energy, Alaska Power Administration, October 1979. 2. City of Unalaska Electrification Study, 1979. Robert W. Retherford Associates, September 1979. 3. Alaska Regional Profiles, Volume III, Southwest Region, State of Alaska. 4. Wind Power Digest, #16, Summer 1979. 111-63 Bethel -Section III APA15/E 5. Transmission Interties Q. 11 Villages in The Bethel Area: Diesel generating plants in small communities produce e 1 ectri c energy of much hi gher cost than for 1 arger systems due to the following factors. (1) Fuel costs are higher due to transportation. (2) Small engines operating under highly variable loads are less efficient than larger ones -operating under comparatively steady loads -(6-8 kWh/gal of fuel compared to 12-14 kWh/gal.) (3) Operating and maintenance costs are higher due to remote locations and inefficient energy conversion. A low cost transmission intertie of the small systems to a larger utility can provide less costly electric power to the small community. The feasibility of such an intertie has been for the eleven communities within a 50 mile Bethel (listed in Section II). 50 miles has to be the lIeconomic distance" at this time. investigated radius from been determined (See Appendix A-4). The interties with the existing Bethel systems have been assumed to be s i ngl e phase 1 i nes ut il i zing the s i ngl e wire ground return scheme (see Appendix A-I). This type of transmission system will allow relatively low cost installation compared to three phase transmission. Most of the connected loads are single phase loads and phase convers i on equipment can readily produce three phase power where needed. Two demonstration projects -utilizing single wire ground return lines -are under contract to be built in the Bethel and Kobuk area in the near future. It is anticipated that this scheme can eventually provide primary power supply from larger centralized plants and assign use of the small, village diesel plants for standby and make less costly power available to remote communities. To as sure adequate vo 1 tage 1 eve 1 sin the commun it i es under consideration, the interties have been chosen at 40 kV wi th conductors 7#8 A 1 umowe 1 d. The approximate routing has been shown on Figure III-II. I II -64 .' • • .. ... .. .. Bethel -Section III APA1S/E The following table lists the central utility and the communities to be intertied with their expected peak loads in the year 2000, the distance from the load center and the required tie-lines. It has been assumed that the interconnected system costs would be shared equally by all communities served. 111-65 H H H • l I. f , '\ l (. _I '. LEGEND' \~-.~ 4 '.' ~r'\--.~ '" ">-- • , I , t < ' .... ~ '\..AHT WITH .~ , Lrl"" IETWEEN't,j : AND· JUNeTIO,. P '~. ";' ~ I ., , I " .!fo;'\" • . .. .... ' ... 'j. .... 'ft ... , 'IO)ot* f 1I."'~ "--~ ',j' • " ~ ~. r.~' j, : I. ' : .>:"",. -\1' . ~ \ ':~\ i ....... ;..-.,~ .. ..,..,..(.1\.~ ... ~J.'b . . "c.,:' ." ~ \ ............... , . ." , ":,,~~,;,, ... ..... '--' '>:.' . I, ' , ,; , , FIGURE III-10 , t , Bethel -Section III APA014/El TABLE III - 6 REGIONAL INTERTIES (2000) Operating From To Distance Location Location (Mil es) Bethel Jct. 7.8 Jct Akiachuk 6.0 Akiachuk Akiak 7.9 Akiak Tuluksak 17.1 Jct. Kwethluk Jct. 7.4 Kwethluk Jct Kwethluk 4.2 Kwethluk Jct Napaskiak 9.1 Napaskiak Eek 39.2 Bethel Oscarvi 11 e Jct. 4.7 Oscarvill e Jct. Oscarvi11e Jct. Napakiak Bethel Atmautluak Total 1 Feeder 1 Load 2 Feeder 2 Load 3 Feeder 3 Load Oscarville Napakiak Tuntutuliak Atmautluak Akolmuit 4 Total of Feeder Loads Installation Cost 2.9 7.2 32.3 17.8 6.7 170.3 170.3 miles 7#8 Alumoweld @ $15,000 (1) River Crossing 15 Terminals @ $35,000 Total Use Max. Load Vo ltage kW (kV) 794 1 40 kV 363 40 kV 158 40 kV 88 40 kV 431 40 kV 233 40 kV 198 40 kV 78 40 kV 402 2 40 kV 26 40 kV 376 40 kV 128 40 kV 382 3 40 kV 320 40 kV 1578 4 1979 $ $2,554,500 16,000 525,000 (3,095,500) 3,100,000 III -67 Conductor Size (AWG) 7#8 7#8 7#8 7#8 7#8 + river crossing 7#8 7#8 7#8 7#8 7#8 7#8 7#8 7#8 7#8 Bethel -Section III APA15/E 6. Conservation The transmission intertie described in the preceding section represents one form of conservation by utilizing highly efficient generat'ing equipment rather than smaller less efficient engines in small communities. This investigation can be extended one step further to the "individual/community" level. Where private generators (at fuel rates of 4-5 kWh/gal.) are being used, centralized power at fuel rates of 6-8 kWh/gal. will not only conserve fuel but also produce electric energy more reliable and less costly. Other forms of conservation in the Lower Kuskokwim area, where the electrical hook-up saturation is extremely low, can be achieved by the following measures: 1 2 a. Variable Speed Engines: This unorthodox method of improving the efficiency and life expectancy of diesel engines has been described in various studies 12 and basically employs a gearbox between prime mover (diesel engine) and generator to allow speed reduction for the prime mover at times of low load and sti 11 maintain constant speed at the generator. The diesel engine will then perform at an apparent high load efficiency rate and require less maintenance due to reduced movement. b. Waste Heat Recovery and Utilization Engihe jacket water heat and exhaust heat can be used for spacing heating purposes. Since approximately 70% of the energy input into a diesel engine generator is lost as waste heat, the rapidly increasing costs of fuel oil are expected to make installation of exhaust heat recovery equipment economically feasible even for older existing plants. An evaluation on a case by case basis is, however, advisable to assure the most economical installation. IIBristol Bay Energy and Electric Power Potential" -December 1979 for the Alaska Power Administration. "Waste Heat Capture Study" -June 1978 for the Division of Energy and Power Development. 1II-68 .. ... • • - • Bethel -Section IV APA12/I Resul ts of the bus bar cost of power have been summari zed: • In graphical form showing the unit costs in ¢/kWh on an annual basis for the study period. • As totals of the present worth of annual total costs for alternate scenarios for the study period. • As equivalent of unit costs for alternate scenarios for the study period. The graphi cal exhi bit shows breakeven poi nts cl early and allows easy demonstration of the results of various developments. Comparison of accumulated present worth allows analysis by establishing Benefit/Cost ratios for alternates for the entire study period and will determine the best economic development. Accumulated present worth of the unit costs of energy will make it possible to assess the impact of changes in load growth and service area. Inflation rates have been assumed at 8% per year through 1984 and at 4% per year thereafter. Fuel oil costs have been escalated an additional 2% above 'inflation rates. Sensitivity to the cost of money has been investigated by establishing power costs for interest rates of 2, 5, 7 and 9%. The low interest rates would be REA financed projects, while the hi gher rates woul d represent the rates for bonds or institutional loans obtained for private financing. The evaluated alternates refl ect two different routes of development: • • Independent systems in the various communities. Intertied regional systems. In the case of independent system development, the primary electric power source will in most cases be diesel generation. Supplemental use of wind generation may be possible but is not addressed in the power cost study due to the uncertainties of useful life and equipment maintenance costs. Only low load growth scenari os have been evaluated for the independent system development, as it is not expected that the historical growth rate will be maintained under this condition. Costs in all cases evaluated include investment amortization, insurance, operation and maintenance, and fuel where applicable. Investments for additional generating equipment and/or transmission lines have been assumed in timing and magnitude to assure reliable capacity in the scenario under consideration. IV-2 III! , .. ... ... .. .. .. Bethel -Section IV APA12/I B. ALTERNATE DEVELOPMENT PLANS A summary and analysis of each of the alternatives is narrated below. Statistical and graphical comparisons are provided following the narrative. Tables IV-1 "Accumulated Present Worth ll and IV-2 "Cost Ratiosll as well as Figures IV-1 through IV-5 IIUnit Cost ll present a summary of the cost of power calculations in Appendix C. I-A Bethel, Low Load, Diesel Generation This alternative assumes that the electrical energy requirements ;n the Bethel community will continue to be supplied by diesel dri ven generators throughout the study peri od. Generati ng additions have been assumed to be of similar size or larger than presently installed equipment. This alternative represents the mi nimum in capital 'j nvestment, but e 1 ectri ca 1 energy rates are almost entirely dependent on diesel fuel cost. Energy costs will continue to rise indefinitely under this alternative. 2-A Villages, Low Load, Diesel Generation This alternative assumes that the villages will continue to operate small diesel driven generators to supply electrical energy. Generat i ng addi t ions have been assumed to be of similar size or larger than presently installed equipment. This alternative represents the most inefficient and expensive alternative for producing electric power in the village communities, with energy costs expected to exceed $1.00/kWh by the turn of the century (equivalent to about 36¢/kWh in 1979). 3-A Intertied System, Low Load, Diesel Generation This alternative assumes diesel generation and a Single Wire Ground Return (SWGR) transmission intertie (See Appendix A) between Bethel and eleven of the surrounding communities. The maj or advantage of thi s alternate is that ita 11 ows the surrounding communities to be served from a more efficient, centralized generation facility. This results in a sUbstantial regional fuel savings as compared to independent generation ;n Bethe 1 and each of the communi ties as out 1 i ned in the two previous plans. Investments include the transmission interties and diesel generating equipment as required to maintain firm capacity in Bethel and the small communities. Energy costs ;n the year 2000 are decreased drastically for the village communities under this alternative, from in excess of $1.00/kWh to an average of $0.35/kWh (equivalent to about 13¢/kWh in 1979). In addition a small decrease in energy cost is experienced IV-3 Bethe 1 -Section IV APA12II in Bethel (approximately $.Ol/kWh) when compared to independent generation. This alternative is the best of the diesel generation alternatives, but energy costs are directly related to fuel costs and will continue to rise. 4. Intertied System -Golden Gate Hydro 4-A Low Load: This alternative takes advantage of the SWGR transmission intertie as outlined in 3 above and the use of hydroelectric generation to replace diesel generation. Energy from the Golden Gate Hydro project will be supplied to a centralized distribution point in Bethel via a 69 mile transmission line. This energy will then be distributed to Bethel and to the surrounding communities through the SWGR intertie system. The major disadvantage of the alternative is the large investment required, approximately $158,000,000 by 1986, to construct the hydro project. As shown in the accompanying graphs, this large investment cost is reflected in the high cost of energy during the first few years a fter project comp 1 et ion. Energy costs wi 11, however, continue to decrease until such time as all of the hydro capacity is utilized. This should occur approximately in the year 2030, using low load projections. The graphs show breakeven years for the energy costs (when compared to diesel) between five and thirteen years after project completion, depending upon interest rates. With only one transmission line planned to connect the hydroelectric project to the intertied system, installation of additional diesel capacity has been assumed in Bethel and the small communities in addition to the hydroelectric plant to maintain firm capacity. This is an alternative which is unfavorably affected by the limited study period. Obvious benefits from hydro will extend for fifty years, or to approximately 2030. However, the present worth of the accumul ated energy costs for hydro, when compared to the present worth of accumulated energy costs for diesel for the twenty year study period, does not reflect the true potential savings available from the hydro alternatives, if assumed parameters continue beyond the twenty year period. 4-B High Load: This alternative is identical to 4-A above except that it assumes the high load growth projection. It is believed that the high load growth projection would be the most IV-4 .. .. • ", .. .. • Bethel -Section IV APA12/I probable growth projection experienced ;n the region if lower cost electric energy were made available. Due to the higher utilization of the hydroelectric energy, this case results in a substantial reduction in cost of energy when compared to the "l ow growth tl a 1 ternat i ve. Excess hydro capacity will, however, be exhausted by the year 2002 and supplemental generation must be provided. The breakeven year for energy from the hydroproject as compared to diesel is between three and eight years after project completion depending upon the interest rate elected. Comparison of this alternative to the continued use of diesel generation in an intertied system (Plan 3) indicates however, that diesel generation could be more des i rab 1 e if interest rates above 5% are cons i dered. This comparison is of course biased by the 20-year study period and it can be assumed that the hydro project would breakeven at a higher interest rate if the study period were extended. 5-A/B Intertied System, High/Low Load, Electric Heat, Golden Gate Hydro These two alternatives explore the possibility of using the excess hydro capacity available during the first severa 1 years of ope rat i on of the project to provi de electric heating to consumers. In this case electric energy for home heating would be provided at equivalent or slightly lower costs as for fuel-oil heating. Installation and control of the electric heating equipment wou 1 d be prov i ded by the ut il i ty. A detailed exp 1 anat ion of this concept can be found in Appendix A-5. The most noticeable effect of these two alternatives is the substantially lower bus bar cost of energy when compared to previous alternatives. Figure IV-5 compares the cost in mills/kWh for the high and low load projection plus electric heat and the high load growth alternative outlined in 4B. In addition to providing lower energy bus bar costs, these two alternatives will save approximately 25 million gallons of fuel oil over the span of this study period. It should, however, be pointed out that this magnitude of savings will not be realized by the consumers. While the busbar cost of electric energy and the required gallons of fuel oil are substantially lowered, the consumer will now be consuming larger quantities of electrical energy for heating and thus partially cancel any savings experienced from decreases of fuel oil purchases. IV-5 Bethel -Section IV APA12/I The major benefit of these two alternatives is that the costs of electrical energy are levelized over a period of several years, and lower cost electric energy is made available to all consumers. C. EVALUATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS In light of the foregoing discussion the following conclusions and recommendations can be drawn. 1. Conc 1 us ions The two Alternatives 5-A and 5-B which assume the addition of electric heat provide the lowest busbar cost for electrical energy, and tend to levelize the unit cost of energy over a several year period. These two alternatives also result in a substantial additional decrease in regional fuel oil consumption when compared to the other scenarios and are economically feasible at all interest rates. A 1 ternat i ves 4-A and 4-B (Hydroe 1 ectri c development) both result in substantially decreased energy costs in the latter years of the study. They are, however, both adversely affected during the first few years following completion of the project due to the high initial construction costs of the hydro project and lower electric energy requirements. Alternative 4-B (high load growth) appears feasible at an interest rate of 5% and below. Alternative 4-A (low load growth) is only feasible for an interest rate of 2%. Of the diesel alternatives, Plan 3 (central generation in an intertied system) proves to be the most promising. Alternatives and 2, utilizing strictly local generation, should be avoided if at all possible. 2. Recommendations Develop the Golden Gate Hydro Project. This will result in the lowest power cost for an interest rate of 5% or less if small communities are included and intertied to Bethel. The addition of even moderate amounts of electric heating loads results in the lowest power cost at all interest rates. IV-6 1 't< "". .. 1Iif: .. If< • • .' .. III! *~ ... .... - ~, • '" .. .. ., iii Bethel -Section IV MISC09/F1 I-A 2-A 3-A 4-A 4-B 5-A 5-B TABLE IV-l OF ACCUMULATED PRESENT WORTH Annual Cost in $1000 Equivalent Unit Cost in ¢/kwh FOR 1980-2000 AT 7% DISCOUNT INTEREST RATE ALTERNATE 2% 5% 7% Bethel -Diesel 77 2218 77~960 78!542 Low Load 20.9 21.1 21. 3 Vi 11 ages -Diesel 26 z693 26!768 26,850 Low Load 60.3 60.5 60.6 Intertied. System 83,924 85 1 688 87 1 042 -Diesel -Low Load 20.2 20.7 21. 0 Intertied System 76 1 086 96 1 940 114,465 -Hydro -Low Load 19.4 24.0 28.0 Intertied System 82,813 104 1 897 123 1 361 -Hydro -High Load 16.7 20.2 23.2 Intertied System 80!970 101,727 119 1 176 -Hydro -Low Load 12.8 14.9 16.6 + Electric Heat Intertied System 86 1 415 108 1 435 126!836 -Hydro -High Load 12.7 14.6 16.2 + Electric Heat IV - 7 9% 79,170 21.5 26 1 912 60.8 88,492 21.4 132 1 391 31. 9 142 1 361 26.3 137!020 18.3 145 1 733 18.0 Bethel -Section IV MISC09/F2 TABLE IV-2 COST RATIOS OF ACCUMULATED PW OF ANNUAL COST FOR ALTERNATE DEVELOPMENT PLANS INTEREST RATE ALTERNATES COMPARED 2% 5% 7% 9% I-A + 2-A Bethel + Villages -Local Diesel 3-A Intertied System -Diesel 1. 24 1. 22 1. 21 1.2 I-A + 2-A Bethel + Villages -Local Diesel Q 4-A Intertied System -Hydro 1. 37 1.08 .8 3-A Intertied S~stem -Diesel 4-A Intertied System -Hydro 1.10 .88 .76 .67 IV - 8 .. ., .. I-A 3-A I-A 4-A I-A 4-B I-A H I-A 5-B 2-A 3-A 2-A 4-A 2-A 4-B 2-A 5-A 2-A 5-B Bethel -Section IV MISC09/F3 TABLE IV-3 COST RATIOS OF EQUIVALENT UNIT COSTS FOR ALTERNATE DEVELOPMENT PLANS ALTERNATES INTEREST RATE COMPARED 2% 5% 7% Bethel -Diesel 1. 03 1. 02 1. 01 Intertied System -Diesel Bethel -Diesel 1. 08 .88 .76 Intertied System -Hydro -Low Load Bethel -Diesel 1. 25 1 1. 04 1 .921 Intertied System -Hydro -High Load Bethel -Diesel 1. 63 1. 42 1. 28 Intertied System -Hydro -Low Load + Heat Bethel -Diesel 1. 65 1 1. 45 1 1. 31 1 Intertied Sysetm -Hydro - High Load + Heat Villages -Load Diesel Intertied System -Diesel 2.99 2.92 2.89 Villages -Local Diesel Intertied System -Hydro -Low Load 3.11 2.52 2.16 Villages + Local Diesel Intertied System -Hydro -High Load 3.611 3.0 1 2.61 1 Villa~es -Local Diesel Intertled System -Hydro -4.71 4.06 3.65 Low Load + Heat Villages -Local Diesel 4. 75 1 4.141 3. 74 1 Intertid System -Hydro - High Load + Heat 9% 1.0 .67 .82] 1.17 1.19 1 2.84 1. 91 2.311 3.32 3.38 1 1 Approximation, since compared to "Low Load -Diesel ll ; accurate ratio is slightly lower due to additional diesel investment required for IIHigh Load ll case. IV -9 ::t: ~ lC: IOOO.----------------.----------------.-----------------r---------------~ 900+---------------~----------------~--------------~~--------------~ 800+---------------~----------------~--------------~~_---~2~A~------~ VILLAGES -DIESEL 700+---------------~~------~------~--------------~--~~~L~OW~L~0~A~D~------~ 600+---------------~----------------~----------------~--------------~ 500+---------------~----------------~--------------~~----~A~------~ BETHEL -DIESEL LOW LOAD 400+---------------~----------------~--------------~~--------~~--~ "- ~300+-----~4nAr-------~--------------~-----------------r----~~~~--~ j iNTERTIED SYSTEM HYDRO -LOW LOAD 3A iNTERTIED SYSTEM DIESEL -LOW LOAD 100+--4~_r--~--~~--_r--+_~~_+--~--r_~--~--+_~~-+--~--+_~--~ 1980 1985 1990 YEAR IV -10 1995 2000 BETHEL BUSBAR COST Of POWER AT 2 % INTEREST ON INVESTMENT FIGURE :m: -I • iIii' • ., • :r ~ :.:: 1000~--------------'---------------1I---------------r---------------. 900+-------------~--------------4_------------~~------------~ 800t---------------;_--------------~--------------_+----~2~A~----~ VILLAGES -DIESEL 700+---------------;_------~------~-------------~--~~~L~0~W~L~0~A~D~----~ 600T---------------r-------------~--------------_4--------------~ 500r---------------~--------------;_--------------_r----~IA~------~ BETHEL -DIESEL LOW LOAD 4oo+---------------r---------------+---------------4---------~----~ 3 3oo j:34 ~rJ~:::t~;;f~:J i INTERTIED SYSTEM HYDRO -LOW WAD 200L-~IN~T~E=RT~I~E~D~S~Y=S~T~EM~-~1.~-~~~------.~~~~~~~~--.----L--------------J HYDRO -HIGH WAD 3A INTERTIED SYSTEM DIESEL -LOW LOAD 100+-~--1___.~_r--+__;--_r--~_+--~~~_r--+_~--~--~~--~--~~ 1980 1985 1990 YEAR IV -11 1995 2000 BETHEL BUS BAR COST OF POWER AT 5 % INTEREST ON INVESTMENT FIGURE JJZ: -2 ::t: !t 1000~--------------~----------------.----------------,,---------------·, 9o0+---------------~--------------_+----------------r_------------~ 800+----------------+----------------~--------------~~-----~------~ VILLAGES -DIESEL 700+----------------+--------~------~-------------~--_r~LO~W~L~0~A~D~------~ 600+---------------~·----------------~----------------~--------------4 500+----------------+----------------~--------------~r_----~1~------_; BETHEL -DIESEL LOW LOAD, 400+----------------r~r=~--.. --~::r_--------------_t----------~--__i ~3001-------TT--------l-JIl--~::~~=:dl~---=::~~~~~~ .J ::I! 48 200t-~IN~T~E~R~T~IE~D~S~Y~ST~E~M~+I~~~--~~~~----------------~~~~---------; HYDRO -HIGH WAD 3A INTERTIED SYSTEM DIESEL -LOW LOAD lOO+--4r--r--~--r_,_4--_r--+_~r__+--~--r__4--_r--~--r__+--~--+__1--_; 1980 1985 1990 YEAR IV -12 1995 2000 BETHEL BUSBAR COST OF POWER AT 7 % INTEREST ON INVESTMENT FIGURE Ill: -3 ... 11M. .. • .. .' Wi III .. • • ., • .. 1ooo,----------------,---------------.----------------.---------------, ::r:: :J: ::.:: ...... 900T----------------r---------------+--------------_4~------------~ 800'+----------------r--------------~----------------~-----~2~A------~ VILLAGES -DIESEL 100+-______________ ~_--------~----_+--------------_4~0~W~L~0~A~D------~ 600+---------------+---------------+---------------r-------------~ 500C=n~b::=~=u BETHEL -DIESEL LOW LOAD\ 400+---- ~300+-----~~------~lf-------------+----~~~----~~~~~~~--~ ..J i 4B 200~-IN~T=E~R=T~,E~D~S~Y~S~T=E~M-4H-r-------~~~~--------------4---------------~ HYDRO -HIGH LDAD ....,..,.,.----~ 3A INTERTIED SYSTEM DIESEL -LOW LOAD 100~_;--~--r__T--4_--~_+--~~~~--~~r__r--+-_4--~--r__+--~~ 1980 1985 1990 YEAR IV -13 1995 2000 BETHEL BUS BAR COST OF POWER AT 9 % INTEREST ON INVESTMENT FIGURE ll[ -4 1000.----------------,--------------~~--------------~--------------~ 900+----------------;----------------~--------------_4--------------~ :J: ~ :.:: ....... 800+---------~-----4----------------+_--------------_4~-------------~ VILLAGES -DIESEL 700+-________ ~ ____ -4 ________________ +_------~~----_4~L~0~W~L~0=A~D~----~ 600~--------------~------------~--1_--------------_4--------------~ 500+---------------~~------------~--------------_4--------------~ BETHEL -DIESEL LOW LOAD 400+----------------_4----------------+---------------_+-----------+----4 ~300+----------------;----------------~--------------_4------~~~--~ ..J ~ INTERTIED SySTEM---1t--_.. HYDRO -LOW WAD 20°t-~IN~T~E!R~T~IE~D~S~Y~ST~E~M~l1~~~:s~~~~~~~~--------f_;;~~:::::::::J HYDRO -HIGH WAD INTERTIED SYSTEM DIESEL -LOW LOAD 100+-~--_r--;---~_+--1_--r__4--_r--+_-;--_r--~~r__+--~--r__4---r~ 1980 1985 1990 YEAR 1995 2000 BETHEL BUSBAR COST OF POWER AT 2 % INTEREST ON INVESTMENT FIGURE Dr -I I I 1000 900 BOO VILLAGES -DIESEL 700 LOW LOAD 600 500 BETHEL -DIESEL LOW LOAD 400 ::I: ~ ~ ....... ~300 ...J INTERTIED SYSTEM ~ HYDRO -LOW LOAD 200~-IN-T~E~R~T~IE~D~S~YS~T~E~M~lJ~,-----~~~~~~~~~------L---------------J HYDRO -HIGH LOAD---""--- INTERTIED SYSTEM DIESEL -LOW LOAD 100+--'---r--+-~~-+--~~r--+--;---r--+--~--+-~---r--+-~r--r--+--; 19BO 19B5 1990 YEAR 1995 2000 BETHEL BUSBAR COST OF POWER AT 5 % INTEREST ON INVESTMENT FIGURE :m: -2 I I I I I I I I 1000 900 BOO VILLAGES -DIESEL 700 ..... LOW LOAD 600 500 BETHEL -DIESEL LOW LOAD 400 :J: ~ ~ ........ ~300 ...J INTERTIED SYSTEM i HYDRO -LOW LOAD 200 INTER TIED SYSTEM HYDRO -HIGH LOAD INTERTIED SYSTEM DIESEL -LOW LOAD 100+-~--~--~~r--+--~--~-+--~--r-~--~--+-~~~--~~~-+--~~ 19BO 19B5 1990 YEAR 1995 2000 BETHEL BUS BAR COST OF POWER AT 7 % INTEREST ON INVESTMENT FIGURE :nz: -:3 I 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 :x: ~ :.:: ...... ~ 300 ..J ~ INTERTIED SYSTEM HYDRO -LOW WAD VILLAGES -DIESEL OW LOAD BETHEL -DIESEL LOW LOAD 200+--IN-T-E-R-T-IE~D--S-Y~ST~E~M~~~--------~"E+----------------+---------------~ HYDRO -HIGH WAD INTERTIED SYSTEM DIESEL -LOW LOAD 100+-~--~--+-~r--+--~--~~--~--+-~r--+--4---~-+--~--+-~---r~ 1980 \. 1985 1990 YEAR 1995 2000 BETHEL BUS BAR COST OF POWER AT 9 % INTEREST ON INVESTMENT FIGURE :m: -4 Bethel -Section V APAI2/M A. INTRODUCTION V. RECOMMENDATIONS Alternate electric energy sources to replace diesel generation in the Bethel area or make it more efficient that have been found technically and economically feasible are the development of the Kisaralik River hydroelectric potential and the construction of transmission interties. Other resources may be suitable alternatives in the future but cannot be recommended for immediate implementation. These are wind energy conversion systems, utilization of wood or coal and geothermal energy. Equipment technology and availability on the scale required as well as lack of sufficient resource information make comparably realistic assessment of these resources impossible. These recommendations concentrate therefore on the next steps required to facilitate the hydroelectric development and transmission interties. B. DEVELOPMENT OF THE KISARALIK RIVER HYDROELECTRIC SITE The economic evaluation of the Kisaralik River, Golden Gate hydro- electric development and possible alternatives, clearly indicate that implementation of the recommended alternative will require regional consent and cannot be undertaken by any single community in the area alone. Cooperation among the various communities and state support is therefore a necessity if cost stable electrical energy is to be provided. Development of the Kisaralik River Golden Gate hydro project will result in the lowest power cost at an interest rate of 5% or less if small communities are included and intertied to Bethel via single wire ground return lines. The addition of even moderate amounts of electric heating loads results in the lowest power costs for all interest rates. As the project area 1 i es wi thi n the boundari es of the proposed Yukon Delta National Wildlife Refuge, FERC license application and exemption of the dam and power plant sites as well as the transmission corri dor and requi red roadways from the intended wi 1 derness designation of the area should be undertaken immediately. V-I Bethel -Section V APA12lM The necessary steps to initiate development are seen as follows: 1. 2. 1 Organizational Framework A state or regional entity with state backing is needed to pursue the • Filing of a preliminary permit with FERC. • Preparation of the FERC license application. • Investigation in financing possibilities. • Removal of the Kisaralik plant and dam, transmission corri dor and roadways from the "Wil dl i fe Refuge ll des i gnat ion. • Construction and eventual operation of the facilities and necessary transmission interties. Various ways are open to the area communities and utilities to found and finance such an organization: • An informal rerional commission which would work closely with local uti ities and the AKPAI. In this commission the communities and utilities could be represented by an elected member. • A regional Generation and Transmission (G&T) cooperative would be formed by existing utilities. This G&T which would sell the electric energy to local utilities. Fi nand n9 Depending on the type of regional entity formed the methods of project financing will vary. With only 2 communities in the are being members of a REA Co-op, successful initiation of a G&T Co-op is doubtful. This precludes low interest REA financing. A regional commission without a state agency as backup would have difficulties obtaining financing for a project of the magnitude of the Kisaralik. If it is therefore assumed that either the Alaska Power Authority or a regional commission in close cooperation with the AKPA would be the owner and operator of the project, the following methods could be used: (1) Funds can be appropriated by the State of Alaska legislature. (2) bonds can be issued. In this case it is most likely that AKPA would be the issuing agency. Alaska Power Authority. V-2 • .. • .' It· ., • ., • Bethel -Section V APA12/M 3. Activities to Prepare for license In order to assure an efficient and smooth preparation process the following steps should be taken simultaneously after it has been decided to proceed. a. File an application for a preliminary permit with FERC. b. Contact the Alaska Department Fish and Game, the Department of Fish and Wildlife, the U.S. Forest Service and BLM to assure their input and cooperation in regard to (1) Environmental study requirements. (2) Right-of-way and permits. c. Initiate preparation of a definite project report. d. Initiate environmental studies. e. Plan and install SWGR transmission interties to the small communities. If the shortest possible times are allocated to the various prerequisites named above, the following time frame is considered IIminimum time to date in operation ll : Institution is identified License to study is obtained Prepare FERC license application License granted Design Construction Earliest Date on Line 4. Transmission Interties 1980 1980 1980 1981 Mid 1981 to Mid 1982 1982 to End 1985 1986 If the Golden Gate hydro project is ruled out, as a minimum a regional intertie system should be completed. This will result in an average energy costs of $0.35/kWh in the year 2000, a savings of approximately $0.65/kWh in the small villages and $O.Ol/kWh in the community of Bethel. This alternative relies exclusively on diesel generation, but is far superior to individual generation in each of the communities. V-3 Bethel -Section V APA12/M 5. Further Investigations Utilizing single phase, low freguency generation and transmission should be pursued, since substantial savings in the initial cost of the hydroelectric developments are conceivable. Manufacturers have shown interest in supplying this type of equipment, but a detailed evaluation including detailed equipment data availability and cost has yet to be performed. The concept of utility installed and controlled electric heating devices in connection with hydro developments appears to be viable and beneficial for relatively large projects in regard to ex; st i ng load. There a more detail ed study coul d address technical details and other parameters. Wi th development of more re 1 i ab 1 e wi nd energy convers ion systems it is extremely important to gather wind data, so that the potential especially for small communities -can be fully assessed. Installation of are nonmeters is therefore strongly recommended. If this is made a school project, the benefit can be considered two fold. An assessment of the available wood and its growth potential is mandatory, especially since coalcannot be mined economically. V-4 ... .. .. .. .. • - • oiIIII' .. APPENDIX A TECHNICAL DATA Bethel -Appendix A APAI4/C A-I SINGLE WIRE GROUND RETURN TRANSMISSION A-I Bethel -Appendix A APA14/C GENERAL CONCEPT MINIMUM COST TRANSMISSION SYSTEM Single Wire Ground Return Transmission of Electricity The Single Wire Ground Return (SWGR) transmission concept described in this proposal has evolved from a recognition of certain basic facts-of-life concerning electric energy in remote western and interior Alaska, which facts are: 1. Small electric loads and the geographic distribution of villages presently limit electric energy supply to small, inefficient fossil-fueled generating plants. 2. Fue 1 pri ces in the western and i nteri or regi ons, already uniquely high, face the probability of continued escalation. 3. Conventional three-phase electric transmission/distribution systems to intertie the outlying communities to more efficient generating plants are mostly impractical because high initial costs penalize the transmitted energy rates. 4. A transmission system using a Single Wire Ground Return (SWGR) line promises good electrical performance [1] [4] [7] [8] [10] and a substantially lower initial capital cost and therefore a lower transmitted energy cost than conventional transmission. 5. The SWGR line can be constructed using a high percentage of local labor and local resources in areas that need gainful employment as well as lower cost electricity. 6. The incentive to develop new, alternative energy sources (such as appropriate scale hydroelectric power in the area) is dependent on an economically viable electric transmission scheme that can feasibly deliver such energy to the villages. The SWGR transmission concept is one which proposes to deal with these real it i es. While the use of a single energized wire and earth return circuit is unconventional in the sense that applications are not common, it is an accepted system of proven use in several areas of the world [7] [8] [9] [10[ [11]. Three phase equipment can also be successfully operated from this system by using phase converters [6], The fifth edition of the National Electrical Safety Code (NESC) allowed the use of the ground as a conductor for a power circuit in rural areas; however, the most recent edition does not. It is the A-3 Bethel -Appendix A APA14/C opinion of this writer that the SWGR system proposed here would in no way create an operating system with a lesser safety than the "conventional" system now in use throughout Alaska. Robert W. Retherford Associates has applied to the State of Alaska for an exception to the NESC to allow construction of a SWGR system. Verbal approval has been received, with final approval to be on a case by case basis, to construct demonstration projects using this principle. A project to supply central station electricity to isolated villages using the SWGR system is proposed. Such a project would provide a demonstration of the technical and cost feasibility of the system. The following pages provide a listing of objectives and a description of three alternate projects of increasing size and cost that will contribute valuable data for use in considering further extensions of such systems. A-4 .. .. • .. ., .. .. • Bethel -Appendix A APA14/C PHYSICAL DESIGN AND CONSTRUCTION CONSIDERATIONS Lack of a road system, permafrost, and limited or no accommodations for constructon crews throughout most of the region being studied establish some limitations that must be dealt with to find appropriate solutions. Conventional construction techniques and line designs might be used -but at premium costs. A design believed most adaptable to these limitations is based on the use of an A-frame structure shown in the following sketch 1 abe 1 ed Fi gure 1. The arrangement is we 11 sui ted to the SWGR design. It is believed that the design has certain features that will provide unique opportunities for its use over the terrain of this region, as follows: 1. The structure can be built using maximum local products and manpower. The legs of the A-frame can be made from local spruce that grows along the major river systems of the region and can be transported by these rivers. With this being done, 75% of the total line construction dollars could stay within the region. 2. The structure has transverse stability from gravity and need not penetrate the earth (permafrost in this region). Longitudinal stability is obtained through the strength and normal tension of the line conductor. This allows for use of the shortest lengths for legs to provide the ground clearances needed for safety. Additional longitudinal stability would be provided by fore and aft guying at suitable intervals. 3. The Single Wire configuration can be designed for minimum cost by utilizing high-strength conductors that require a minimum number of structures and still retail the standards for high reliability. For example: A single wire line constructed using 7#8 Alumoweld High Strength (approx. 16,000 lb. breaking strength) wire, electrically equivalent to a #4 ACSR conductor will require one half as many structures per mile as the #4 ACSR under the same Heavy Loadi ng Des i gn Conditions. (The line could also be converted to 30 at a future date by adding another structure in each span, and adding the new conductors.) A-5 Bethel -Appendix A APA14/C PRELIMINARY DESIGN DATA "A"-FRAME, SPRUCE POLE t GRAVITY STRUCTURE APPROX. LOCATI~ OF NEl.1T. (if any) 14'-4" INE Figure A-I. 1 A-6 .. • . ' .. ... .. ., .. .. . ' \IW .. IIif, .. II, .. .. .. .. .. -.. .. • ., Bethel -Appendix A APAI4/C 4. The A-frame, gravity stabilized design form allows the use of a unique, engineering/construction technique that will substantially reduce both engineering and construction efforts as follows: The high strength conductor is laid out on the ground between anchor points (at typical intervals of 1 to 2 mil es) and tensioned whil e on the ground to the approx'imate stringing tension. An engineer and assistant locate structure points by using the tensioned conductor as a template (lifting it above the ground to observe clearances from the natural contour). Thi s could be done in winter time by using snow machines rigged with a small "jig!! to underrun the conductor and 1 i ft it to predetermi ned heights for observation. At poi nts selected by the engi neer, a crew assembles a structure completely and fastens it permanently to the conductor (all lying on the ground). The crew lifts the structure at the point of attachment while the stress in the conductor is being maintained at the appropriate stringing tension. (A typical structure with conductors in an 800 foot span might weigh 900 lbs. complete.) 5. Long river crossings (typically 2000 feet or less in length) can be accomplished using the same high strength conductor. Several such crossings have been in successful operation in Alaska using this same 7#8 Alumoweld wire as follows: Naknek River (5. Naknek to Naknek) Talkeetna River (near Sunshine) Along Kachemak Bay, Tutka Bay Sadie Cove Halibut Cove 2000 ft. 1894 ft. 1835 ft. 4135 ft. 2070 ft. 6. Costs for an SWGR line constructed using the A-frame design and high strength conductor is estimated to be about one-third (1/3) the cost of an equivalent 30, 4 wire line of similar capacity. A-7 Bethel -Appendix A APA14/C The gravity stabil i zed A-frame 1 i ne des i gn us i ng long span construction will provide excellent flexibility to adapt to the freezing -thawing cycles of the tundra and shallow lakes of the region. Experience in this kind of terrain has clearly demonstrated the need to IIlive with ll these seasonal cycles and avoid designs that cannot tolerate movement of the structure footings. Gravel backfill around and under poles that are set in the earth using more conventional line designs has proven successful but usually expensive and in many areas of this region highly impractical because of lack of gravel. Hinged structures supporting large transmission line conductors (Drake, 795 MCM, ACSR, 31,700 lb. strength, 1.094 lbs. weight/ft.) across shallow and deep muskeg swamps and permafrost have been performing excellent service on the lines from Beluga across the Susitna River and its adjacent flat lands. Some of this route has severe freeze -thaw action that has dramatically demonstrated the need for flexibility. These flexible systems have performed as intended during severe differential frost action. The basic structural philosophy and performance of this transmission line is reflected in the proposed A-frame arrangement described here. The experience with such existing lines provides the strong basis for confidence in the structural performance of this new design. A-8 ... .. • • Bethel -Appendix A APA14/C ELECTRICAL CHARACTERISTICS Seri es impedances and shunt capaci t i ve reactance for se 1 ected conductor sizes have been calculated using the following formulas [12]: Series Impedance .e 2160 ;/ f Zg = rc + 0.00158 f + jO.004657f 10910 GMR r = resistance of conductor per mile c f = frequence in Hz p = earth resistivity in ohm meters GMR = geometric mean radius of conductor Shunt Capacitive Reactance XI = .0683 6 f O 1 (Capacitive Reactance at 1 ft. spacing) z 10g10 r XI -12.3 10g10 2h (Zero Sequence Shunt Capacitive e --f---Reactance Factor) h = f = r = height above ground in ft. frequency in Hz conductor radius in ft. A-9 Bethel -Appendix A APA14/C The line data have been calculated with the following assumptions: Frequency: Height above ground: 60 Hz, 25 Hz 30 ft. Earth Resistivity: 100 Ohm-m (swamp), 1000 Ohm-m (dry earth) Ground Electrode Resistance: R Ohms of each end 60 Hz IMPEDANCES AND SHUNT CAPACITIVE REACTANCES Zg (ohm per mile) R GMR(Ft) X (Ohm Diam. p = 100 p = 1000 (Meg hhm Conductor Size Per Mile) (inch) Ohm-m Ohm-m Per Mile) 7#8 Alumoweld 2.354 .0116 2.449 + 2.449 + .244 .385 j 1. 504 j 1. 643 266.8 MCM .35 .0217 .445 + .445 + .229 ACSR . 642 j 1.428 j 1. 567 397.5 MCM .235 .0278 .33 + . 33 + .222 ACSR .806 j 1. 397 j 1. 537 556.5 MCM .168 .0313 .263 + . 263 + .218 ACSR .927 j 1. 383 j 1. 523 795 MCM .117 . 0375 .212 + .212 + .213 1.108 j 1. 361 j 1. 501 A-10 .. .' _'i III'" \J--; .. iii, .. IIiII .. .. .. '"', .. ... .. .. .. "" e' "" ., .. .. .. .. • Bethel -Appendix A APA14/C 25 Hz IMPEDANCES AND SHUNT CAPACITIVE REACTANCES R GMR(Ft) Zg (ohm per mile) (ORm Diam. p -100 P -1000 Conductor Size Per Mile) (inch) Ohm-m Ohm-m 7#8 Alumoweld 2.354 .0116 2.394 + 2.394 + .385 j .649 j .707 266.8 MCM .35 .0217 .390 + .390 + ACSR .642 j .617 j .675 397.5 MCM .235 .0278 .275 + .275 + ACSR .806 j .604 j .663 556.5 MCM .168 .0313 .207 + .207 + ACSR .927 j .598 j .657 795 MCM .117 .0375 .157 + .157 1.108 j .589 j .647 A-II X (MegCohm Per Mil e) .586 .549 .533 .523 .511 Bethel -Appendix A APA14/C LIST OF REFERENCES [1] "A Regional Electric Power System for the Lower Kuskokwim Vicinity, A Preliminary Feasibility Assessment" prepared for the United States Department of the Interior -Alaska Power Administration, by Robert W. Retherford Associates, Anchorage, Alaska, July 1975. [2] [3] [4] Alaska Electric Power Statistics 1960-1975, published by the United States Department of the Interior -Alaska Power Administration, Fourth Edition, July 1976. "Grounding Electric Circuits in Permafrost ll , a paper by J. R. Eaton, P.E., West Lafayette, Indiana (formerly Professor of Electrical Engineering, Purdue University and visiting Professor of Electrical Engineering, University of Alaska) consultant to Alyeska Pipeline Service Co.; P.O. Klueber, P.E., Senior Operations Engineer, Alyeska Pipeline Service Co., Anchorage, Alaska and Robert W. Retherford, P.E. of Robert W. Retherford Associates, Anchorage, Alaska. January 1976. "Single Wire Ground Return Transmission Line Electrical Performance ll , a paper prepared for Robert W. Retherford Associates by J. R. Eaton, visiting Professor of Electrical Engineering, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, Alaska, April 1974. [5] IIGround Electrode Systemsll, by J. R. Eaton, Professor of Electrical Engineering, Purdue University, Lafayette, Indiana, sponsored by Commonwealth Edison Company, Chicago, Illinois, June 1969. [6] IIPerformance Characteristics of Motors Operating from Rotary- Phase Converters", prepared by Leon Charity, Professor Agricultural Engineering, Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa, and Leo Soderholm, Agricultural Engineer, Farm Electrification Res. Br. AERO, ARS, USDA, Ames, Iowa. This paper was presented at the IEEE Rural Electrification Conference held at Cedar Rapids, Iowa May 1-2, 1967. Paper No. 34CP, 67-268. (7] IIRural Electrification by Means of High Voltage Earth Retur"n Power Li nes ll , by My E. Robertson, Paper No. 1933 presented before a General Meeting of the Electrical and Communication Engineering Branch of the Sydney Division on 27 August 1964. The author is the Design Engineer for the Electricity Authority of New South Wales, Australia. A-12 .. .. .. ., .. -- .. .. Bethel -Appendix A APA14/C [8] "Wire Shielding 230 kV Line Carries Power to Isolated Areal! - an article which appeared in the July 15, 1960 issue of Electric Light and Power, written by D. L. Andrews, Distribution Studies Engineer and P.A. Oakes, System Analysis Engineer, Idaho Power Company. This article describes a 40 kV single-phase transmission line using earth return. [9] "Single-Phase, Single-Wire Transmission for Rural Electrifi- cation", Conference Paper No. CP 60-883, presented at the AlEE Summer General Meeting, Atlantic City, New Jersey, June 19-24, 1960 by R. W. Atkinson, Fellow AlEE and R.K. Garg, Associate Member AlEE, both of Bihar Institute of Technology, P.O. Sindri Institute, Dhanbad (Bihar) -India. [10] "Single Wire Earth Return High Voltage Distribution for Victorian Rural Areas", by J.L.W. Harvey, B.C.E., B.LL, H.K. Richardson, B.E.E., B. Com., and LB. Montgomery, B.L, B.E.E., Messrs. Harvey and Richardson are with the Electricity Supply Department, State Electricity Commission of Victoria, Australia and Mr. Montgomery is Director and General Manager, Warburton Franki (Melbourne) Ltd. Thi s paper No. 1373 was presented at the Engineering Conference in Hobart, Australia, 6 to 21 March, 1959. The paper recalls that " ...... the system was first developed by Lloyd Mandeno of Aukland, New Zealand, who introduced it in the Bay of Islands area in the North Island of New Zealand in 1941. Since that time ....... thousands of consumers are connected to hundreds of miles of single-wire lines ...... In September 1951, the State Electricity Commission of Victoria erected a small experimental system at Stanley .. following the success of the experimental installations the single-wire earth-return system has been very extensively used in Victoria .... " [11] "Using Ground Return for Power Lines", by R.K. Garg (see [9] above) of the Bihar Institute of Technology -an article published in the Indian Construction News, June 1957. [12] Electrical Transmission Distribution Reference Book, 4th Edition, 1950, copyrighted and published by the Westinghouse Electric Corporation, East Pittsburg, Pa. A-13 Bethel -Appendix A APA14/C A-2 DISTRIBUTION AND TRANSMISSION LINE LOAD LIMITATIONS A-15 Bethel -Appendix A APA14/C DISTRIBUTION AND TRANSMISSION LINE LOAD LIMITATIONS The amount of power that can be transmitted over a distribution or transmission line is limited by: • current carrying capacity of the conductor • tolerable voltage drop • electrical system stab~lity. System stability considerations have to be determined for individual cases and current carrying capacity depends strictly on conductor material and size. Voltage drop, however, is a limiting factor dictated by line length, operating voltage, load, and conductor size and configuration. Volta e Oro (9:) = Voltage sent -Volta~e received g p I) Voltage received X 100 Maximum tolerable voltage drops are for: Distribution Lines (up to 24.9 kV)l Transmission Lines (from 34.5 kV up to 138 kV)2 6.67% 5-7% The following tables show load limitations in form of Megawatt Miles for various distribution and transmission lines. For distribution lines calculations were performed in accordance with REA Bulletin 45-1 where: Megawatt -Mil es = VD) (kV2) (cos e) P R cos e + X Sln e 1 0 Where VD = kV = e = P = R = X = Allowable voltage drop in % Line to ground voltage 1 2 Phase angle between voltage and current # of phases Resistance in ohms per phase per mile of line Reactance in ohms per phase per mile of line REA Bulletin 169-27, January 1973 Standard Handbook for Electrical Engineers. 10th Edition. A-17 Fi nk & CarrolL Bethel -Appendix A APA14/C For transmission lines tables published in REA Bulletin 65-2 have been utilized and for Single Wire Ground Return Lines the following formula l is considered to render adequate results for preliminary investigations: Receiving End Voltage = Where Vl = R = X = o = X I V, 12 -(Q12) (R2+X2) Vl [ X cos 0 + R sin 0 ] Sending end voltage in kV Resistance in ohms per phase per mile Reactance in ohms per phase per mile Phase Angle between the two bus voltages ( ) ] Where Pl2 = total real power (MW) The reactive power Ql2 ~ Q2 + Q Loss -Yc Vl 2 Where Q2 Q loss Yc = = = Receiving end reactive power (MVAr) Line loss reactive power (MVAr) Shunt capacitive admittance in Meg mhos per mile It should be understood that this formula can only be used for "short" line models (up to 50 miles) and that the following assumptions have been made: 1. 2. 3. 4. R ~ 115 X 6 and V2 are calculated by solving for each alternatively, assuming 0 ~ 10° V1 and V2 differ less than 10% Line length 1 mile The load limitation given in Table B-2 can be used for preliminary feasibility investigations. For actual line design more accurate calculations are mandatory. 1 From: Electric Energy Systems Theory by Olle 1. Elgerd. by McGraw-Hill, Inc. A-18 Published "" .. • - 1;;".,,,1,. 1.-2 - A?A~12/.nl O:S;KI~7icS Lr~~s C,;~'!uctor su~ • A".G p.r. (A.::sil/MC) .9 p':' 1.1 1f'J 1.9 4:'1 2.8 lH.S (6.61\ Volt_ae Drop) 7.:tkV-I! P.F. P.F. .95 1.0 J.Z 1.4 2.2 3.1 3.3 5.4 ~r.n.~i5Iion lines (st Voltage Drop) P.F. .9 3.9 1.3 13.3 19 Ceodactof 69 tV (8.S'" equiv. spacing) Siu -A\le P.F. P.F. P.F. (o\eS8) .9 .95 1.0 ' .. rtridile ZOS .• 301 362 513 IBIS 391.5 310 450 188 J)ove 55S.S 423 526 991 CroOke 195 416 603 1228 ~ABLE A-2.1 LINE LOADING LIMITS IN MEGAWATT MILES IN REGARD TO ALLOWABLE VOLTAGE DROP FOR SELECTED CONDUCTOR SIZES 7.2Ir.V-3! 14."kV-1! 14.4kV-3! P.F. P.F. P.f. p.r. P.F. P.L P.F. .95 1.0 .9 .95 1.0 .9 .95 4.1 4.6 4.3 4.1 S.6 15.5 16.7 '.9 n.1 7.4 8." 12 33.3 36.1 lS.S 23.3 11 l) 21 51 60 U 44 74 91 115 loV (13."8' eguiv. spacing) P.F. P.F. P.F. 138 loV (19.53' equiv. ~pacln&~ p.F. P.f. p.r. .9 ,95 1.0 .9 .9S 1.0 819 913 1511 980 U91 2142 1359 1668 3030 1112 nst 2685 1535 1924 3110 1243 1581 3271 1106 ~118 4SSe. Siaale Vire Cround Return Lines (st Voltage Drop) Cou6 .. cte.r She -AWG 40 loV ( ... ~S8 ...ale .. p.r. othervi$e noted) .9 1.8 Alu=",eld 25 P .. rtrid .. " 266.8 70 I!lIS )97.5 J5 llo,,~ S56.!> 80 66 loV P.F. • 9 65 180 200 21S 80 ltV p.r. .9 95 265 290 :ns 133 loV p.F • .9 120 800 860 Duk" 79S 85 225 3)5 910 cco~~a re.istivlty = 100 obm-m (chAract"flz"5 Iwa.pv wetland$). Vol tag" drop at ~he ground el"~trodes hi. not heen taken iute. .C.CO&.:Jlt. CalculAted usia, A,B,C,D constants. A-19 1'.1". 1.0 111.9 46.1 91 .13 Bethel -Appendix A APA14/C A-3 PHASE AND FREQUENCY CONVERSION IN POWER TRANSMISSION A-21 Bethel -Appendix A APA14/C PHASE AND fREQUENCY CONVERSION IN POWER TRANSMISSION Power transmission lines are limited in their capacity to transport energy by conductor sizes and voltage levels. Theoretically higher operating voltages and larger conductors will allow transmission of higher loads over greater distances. Load and distance of transmission will cause the voltage to drop. If this drop exceeds 5-7% of the nominal voltage either load or distance have to be decreased or a higher voltage level and/or larger conductor have to be chosen. Construction and operating costs will limit operating voltages and conductor sizes and poi nt to the most economi ca 1 1 eve 1 for any particular case. In Alaska, where small communities with low energy demands are separated by great distances, conventional transmission lines are known to be prohibition in cost. The Single Wire Ground Return transmission scheme is an attempt to make tie lines possible where conventional 3-phase lines would be too expensive to be built (see Appendix B-1). If this scheme is utilized at a lower operating frequency the load or transmission distance could be increased by an amount that is inversely proportional to the new value for the frequency. Railroad electrification in the U.S. as well as in Europe has utilized reduced frequencies (25 and 16 2/3 Hz respectively) to maintain adequate voltage levels over great distances. Generating plants, transmission lines and SUbstations have been built exclusively to supply the railroad distribution network with single phase, low frequency power. Interconnect ions between three phase, 50 or 60 Hz systems and single phase, 16 2/3 or 25 Hz systems have been made via rotating converter sets up to 45 MVAloo. Static frequency/phase conversion equipment is available, but presently not an "off the shelf" item for small (1-2 MW) applications. It is however conceivable that this type of power transmission and conversion can be economically feasible where conventional transmission lines would be too expensive. In case of a remote hydroelectric plant for example the power can be generated single phase at low frequency, the voltage stepped up to transmission level and transported to the point of utilization where, after voltage step down, phase and frequency can be converted to the required system characteristics. Since accurate cost estimates for conversion equipment could not be obtained in time to be used for this study, the potential benefits are shown for a hypothetical case. A-23 Bethel -Appendix A APA14/C Transmission line transfer capacity is shown on Table A-3.1. CONDUCTOR SIZE (AWG) 266.8 ACSR 397.5 ACSR 556.5 ACSR 266.8 ACSR 397.5 ACSR 556.5 ACSR 266.8 ACSR 397.5 ACSR 556.5 ACSR TABLE A-3.1 THREE PHASE TRANSMISSION, 60 Hz SINGLE WIRE GROUND RETURN, 60 Hz and 25 Hz MEGAWATT MILES FOR 5% VOLTAGE DROP @ .9 P.F. THREE PHASE 60 Hz 34.5 kV 69 kV 78 295 94 353 108 401 SWGR 60 Hz 40 kV 66 kV • 80 kV -- 70 180 265 75 200 290 80 215 315 SWGR 25 Hz 40 kV 66 kV 80 kV 110 300 440 135 360 540 150 410 600 See Appendix A-I and A-2 for method of calculation. 138 kV 1359 1535 133 kV 720 800 860 133 kV 1200 1440 1640 The construction cost of SWGR transmission are estimated at approx- imately 30-40% of a three phase transmission line. For a rough comparison the following cost can be used: 34.5 kV 3~ $ BO,OOO/mile (conductor to 556.5 ACSR) 69 kV 3~ $100,000/mile (conductor to 556.5 ACSR) 138 kV 3.0 $125,000/mile (conductor to 556.5 ACSR) A-24 '" ... .. .. iii· • .. ., "" • .. • *' .. .. .. Hi,' • • .. /Ii. III' III· .. III, Bethel -Appendix A APAI4/C Transmission line cost for the following assumptions are then: Power to be transmitted Distance 3~ -69 kV, 397.5 ACSR SWGR (60 Hz) -80 kV, 266.8 ACSR SWGR (25 Hz) -66 kV, 266.8 ACSR 6 MW 50 Miles $5,000,000 $2,500,000 $2,000,000 The achievable cost savings if SWGR transmission is employed are: $2,500,00 to $3,000,000 which would allow an expenditure of $416 to $500 per kW for phase and frequency conversion equipment. A rotating converter set of this size (6 MW) with controls is estimated to cost approximately $300/kW. Preliminary cost estimates for static converters received from a manufacturer indicate $200/kW per terminal. Conversion losses are estimated at 6% at each terminal. Generating equipment for single phase, reduced frequency operation are anticipated to be between 10 and 20% more expensive for an equivalent power output than for three phase equipment. To demonstrate the benefits of reduced frequency operation for power transmission systems more clearly, investigations in regard to the availability of conversion equipment as well as the capacity and cost are necessary. The evaluation of a particular project installed with conventional and low frequency, single phase equipment will then show the possible savings. A-25 Bethel -Appendix A APA14/C 100 101 102 103 BIBLIOGRAPHY liThe Largest Rotating Converters for Interconnecting the Railway Power Supply with the Public Electricity System in Kerzers and Seebach, Switzerlandll Brown Bover; Review, November 1978. "Electrical Transmission and Distribution Reference Book ll , Westinghouse, 1964. "Standard Handbook for Electrical Engineers", Fink and Carroll, 10th Edition. IIElectrical Engineers' Handbook ll , Pender, Delmar, 4th Edition Electric Power. A-26 .. • • .. .. Bethel -Appendix A APA14/C A-4 DETERMINATION OF "ECONOMIC" DISTANCE TO SUPPLY CENTER FOR SWGR INTERTIES A-27 Bethel -Appendix A APA14/C A-4 DETERMINATION OF "ECONOMIC" DISTANCE TO SUPPLY CENTER FOR SWGR INTERTIES It is investigated what distance between a supply center and a community can be economically bridged with a tie-line if diesel generation is assumed at both locations. 1. Basic Assumptions a. Load: The average small community load as established in the energy requirements section is: 95 kWat .4 L.F. with 320,000 kWh per year b. Power Supply: Existing diesel generation at 8 kWh/gal. efficiency. c. Fuel Cost: $.8/gal. in supply center, 25% higher in small community. d. Power Cost: (at distribution bus without debt service, insurance, distribution & administration costs). Small Community Fue 1 at $1. 00 Lube etc. at 10% Maintenance Operating (1 operator at $25,000 per year plus 30% benefits and tax) A-29 ¢/kWh 12.5 1.2 1.0 10.2 24.9 Supply Center Bu"lk prime rate (Bethel 5/79) + Fuel subcharge (60.4¢/gal base & 12 kWh/gal) at at $.8 8.0 1. 63 9.63 Bethel -Appendix A APA14/C e. Transmission/Distribution Line Cost From Appendix B for SWGR lines up to 40 kV constructed with local labor Conductor 7#8 Alumoweld Conductor 4/0 ACSR Terminal (2 required) Annual Fixed Cost (Capital Recovery) 7#8 35 Year Loans Alumoweld 4/0 ACSR Interest at Simile Simile 2% 760 1,140 5% 1,160 1,740 7% 1,467 2,201 9% 1,798 2,697 f. Performance Lim; tat ions for SWGR Lines From Appendix A-2: (without voltage drop 7#8 4/0 Voltage Alumoweld ACSR KV L-G MW miles* * 7.2 .8 12.5 2.5 14.4 3.3 24.9 9.8 40.0 25.0 5% Voltage drop. .9 Power factor. MW miles* 2.1 6.3 8.3 24.9 80.0 100 Ohm-m earth resistivity. at terminal) Load MW .1 .1 .1 .1 .1 A-30 miles 7#8 Alumw. 8 25 33 98 250 $19,000 $28,500 $35,000 Terminal $/each 1,400 2,137 2,703 3,312 miles 4/0 ACSR 21 63 83 249 800 .. • .. ... ., .. Iff .. ' .. .. If • • .. Bethel -Appendix A APAI4/C 2. Economi c Di stance a. Allowable annual payment for tie-line cost for local generation 320,000 kWh x $.249 $79,680 minus Cost for wholesale power (320,000 kWh + 5% losses) x $(.963) b. Distance from supply center: 32,356 $47,323 Miles = Allowable Annual Pa~ment Annual -Cost for Terminals(2) Annual Cost for Tie-Line Per Mile 7#8 Interest Alumoweld 4/0 ACSR Rate Miles Miles Remarks 2% 58 39 24.9 kV min for 7#8 12.5 kV min for 4/0 5% 37 25 24.9 kV min for 7#8 12.5 kV min for 4/0 7% 29 19 14.4 kV min for 7#8 9% 23 15 12.5 kV min for 7#8 3. Concl usions With the assumptions and cost estimates stated above the maximum economic distance is 58 miles for an interest rate of 2%. At a rate of 9%, 23 miles can be built. If the comparison parameters are assumed to be a worst-case (local power cost low, central supply high), it is conceivable that a distance of 50 miles can prove to be "economical". Figure A-4.1, "Line Mile Multiplier", may be used to determine a corrections factor by which to multiply the economic distances listed for 7#8 Alumoweld for other than the annual base cost listed. Graph A-4.1 is used in the following manner. A-31 Bethel -Appendix A APA14/C Determine the local utility and central utility annual costs. Divide these costs by the corresponding local utility and central utility base costs. Use these utility base costs multiplier to enter the graph and read the line mile multiplier from the vertical axis. Example: Local Utility Annual Cost = 87,650 Central Utility Annual Cost = 29,120 Interest Rate = 5% Base Economic Distance = 37 miles Local Utility Base Cost Multiplier = 87,660 = 1.10 79,680 Central Utility Base Cost Multiplier = ~~:§g~ = 0.90 Enter the graph and determine where the 1.10 local utility multiplier intersects the 0.90 central utility cost curve. Read line mile multiplier of 1.25 from the vertical axis. Economic distance = 37 miles x 1.25 ~ 46 miles A-32 .. .. .. .. • .. .. .. .. 1.5 0.80 FIGURE A-4,1 LINE MILE MULTIPLIER FOR 7 • 8 ALUMOWELD 0.90 1.4 LOCAL UTILITY ANNUAL cr:: BASE COST •• 79,680 w 0 ;:j CENTRAL UTILITY ANNUAL a.. BASE COST • • 32,360 ~ 1.3 :J 1.10 2 W J i 1.20 1.2 w )::> Z I ;:j W W 0.80 1.20 LOCAL UTILITY BASE COST MULTIPLIER 0.7'0 0.60 0.50 Bethel -Appendix A APA14/C A-5 CONTROLLED ELECTRIC HEAT - A POTENTIAL MARKET FOR UNUSED ENERGY FROM HYDROELECTRIC POWER PROJECT A-35 Bethel -Appendix A APAI4/C A-5 CONTROLLED ELECTRIC HEAT - A POTENTIAL MARKET FOR UNUSED ENERGY FROM HYDROELECTRIC POWER PROJECT A. THE CONCEPT If the capacity of a hydroproject is relatively large compared to the demand of the supplied area, the cost per kWh will be high since the large investment has to be paid for whether its capacity is used or not. Utilization of this surplus capacity in electric home heating (at a rate comparable to cost for heating with other systems) would be appropriate. The problem arises when -at a later point in time -the area demand (minus the electric heat) approaches the capacity of the hydroplant. At that t"ime the electric heating load and its demand would require installation of additional capacity -which if additional hydro potential cannot be found, would have to be a diesel or other fossil fuel burning plants. Another solution would be to ask all consumers with electric heat to convert to some other heating system. The following suggestion appears to provide for all the benefits and avoids most of the problems electric home heating can have for a utility and the homeowner: 1. The homes are built with a conventional heating system plus electric heat. 2. The utility pays for the installation of the electric heat and its cont ro 1 . 3. The utility sells the energy for the electric heat at a rate equal or lower than the other heat supply fuel cost. 4. The utility is allowed to control utilization of the electric heat -e.g. turn it off during times of peak demand. During these times the "other" heating system supplies comfort heating for the home. The other alternate home heating system thereby provides peaking capacity to the utility. B. ECONOMIC EVALUATION Where are the benefits and to whom do they occur? 1. Investment Cost (Utility) Installation of electric heating system 20 kW @ $100/kW Control equipment Central station control equipment (assumed Sangamo System 5) A-37 1979 -$/Consumer 2,000 100 2,100 50,000 Bethel -Appendix A APA14/C NOTE: Potential need for larger distribution transformers, service drops and service entrance equipment has not been taken into account. It is believed that more detailed analysis would show that since control is provided, it is likely that few increases in capacity of transformers and lines would be required, since the alternate home heating system reduces peaking effects of the electric heating. 2. Benefits C. 1. 2. Essentially all receipts for heating kWh sales (minus the annual costs of the electric heating investment) are benefits which can be used to lower the rates for electric energy from the hydroplant until full utilization is achieved. The following Tables A-5.l and A-5.2 illustrate this type of electric heat utilization for the Bethel area with the Golden Gate hydroelectric project. SENSITIVITY TO CHANGES IN PARAMETERS Load Growth Accelerated growth will lead to an earlier exhaustion of "surplus" energy and render the electric heating system useless after a few years. (Until another hydroelectric power project with excess energy becomes available). Table I shows though that even as little as 5 to 6 years of full utilization will make it economically feasible. The Basic Heating System Calculations are based on a fuel oil heating system (as they are almost exclusively used in the Bristol Bay and Lower Kuskokwim area) and inflation of fuel cost to > $3 per gallon in the year 2000. NOTE: Analysis should be done more in depth to evaluate sensitivity to the following parameters: a. Annual cost for heating system including O&M and replacement cost. b. Lower use of heating energy due to improved i nsu 1 at ion etc. c. Various heating systems, other than fuel oil. d. Electric heat receipts at a lower cost than fuel displacement. A-38 • .. III' • .' .. • > (..oj \.0 Bethel -Appendix A-5 APA014/D1 TABLE A-5.1 II Normalll Marketable Hydro MWh s Year MWh l (High) 1986 126,800 39,679 87 126,800 42,248 88 126,800 44,818 89 126,800 49,387 1990 126,800 49,957 91 126,800 56,739 92 126,800 63,520 93 126,800 70,302 94 126,800 77,084 1995 126,800 83,866 96 126,800 90,646 97 126,800 97,429 98 126,800 104,211 99 126,800 110,992 2000 126,800 117,774 Surplus Marketable Number of Hydro Heating Residential MWh MWh 2 Consumers 87,121 52,208 2,008 84,552 53,768 2,068 81,982 55,302 2,127 79,413 56,862 2,187 76,843 58,396 2,246 70,061 60,060 2,310 63,775 61,280 2,375 56,498 63,414 2,439 49,716 65,104 2,504 42,943 66,768 2,568 36,154 68,432 2,632 29,371 70,122 2,697 22,589 71,786 2,761 15,808 73,476 2,826 19,026 75,140 2,890 L Present Worth 1986 at 7% discount 1 Net -transmission losses 3.5%. Evaluation of Electric Heat for the Bethel Area with Golden Gate Hydro, High Load Growth Cost of Possible Possible Heating Benefits Receipts 4 I nstallation 3 To Normal For Heating & Controls Busbar Cost MWh ($1,000) ($1,000) ($1,000) 2,988 6,782 (3,794) 3,262 208 3,354 3,556 213 3,343 3,876 225 3,651 4,220 230 3,990 4,605 260 4,345 5,018 274 4,744 4,867 281 4,586 4,540 297 4,243 4,156 304 3,850 3,709 316 3,393 3,194 334 2,860 2,604 342 2,262 1,932 361 1,571 1,169 370 799 35,901 9,167 (Cash Flow at beginning of year) 33,552 8,567 (Cash Flow at year end) 2 (# residential consumers x 29,000 kWh) -10% to account for fuel use during peaks. 3 Investment only -no O&M, inflated 8% to 1984, 4% thereafter. 4 Fuel replacement equivalent: $/gal x 3413 x kWh . . 138,000 x .7 ; fuel cost escalated 2% above rnflatlon rate (1979 base = 89¢/gal) 5 Inc!. 10% system losses. :r .j:-- 0 Bethel -Appendix A-5 APA014/D2 TABLE A-5.2 II Normal" Marketable Hydro MWh 5 Year MWh 1 --(Low) 1986 126,800 33,656 87 126,800 35,221 88 126,800 36,788 89 126,800 38,354 1990 126,800 39,920 91 126,800 42,039 92 126,800 44,159 93 126,800 46,278 94 126,800 48,397 1995 126,800 50,516 96 126,800 52,636 97 126,800 54,755 98 126,800 56,874 99 126,800 58,994 2000 126,800 61,113 1 Surplus Marketable Hydro Heating MWh MWh 2 93,144 52,208 91,579 53,768 90,012 55,302 88,446 56,862 86,880 58,396 84,761 60,060 82,641 61,750 80,522 63,414 78,403 65,104 76,284 66,768 74,164 68,432 72,045 70,122 69,926 71,786 67,806 73,476 65,687 75,140 Present Worths 1986 at 1 Net -transmission losses 3.5%. Number of Residential Consumers 2,008 2,068 2,127 2,187 2,246 2,310 2,375 2,439 2,504 2,568 2,632 2,697 2,761 2,826 2,890 7% discount Evaluation of Electric Heat for the Bethel Area with Golden Gate Hydro, Low Load Growth Cost of Possible Possible Heating Benefits Receipts 4 I nstallation 3 To Normal For Heating & Controls Busbar Cost MWh ($1,000) ($1,000) ($1,000) 2,988 6,782 (3,794) 3,262 208 3,054 3,556 213 3,343 3,876 225 3,651 4,220 230 3,990 4,600 260 4,340 5,013 274 4,739 5,457 281 5,176 5,939 297 5,642 6,456 304 6,152 7,041 316 6,698 7,619 334 7,285 8,053 342 7,711 8,278 361 7,917 8,500 370 8,130 50,005 9,167 (Cash Flow at beginning of year) 46,734 8,567 (Cash Flow at year end) 2 (# residential consumers x 29,000 kWh) -10% to account for fuel use during peaks. 3 Investment only -no O&M, inflated 8% to 1984, 4% thereafter. 4 Fuel replacement equivalent: $/gal x 3413 x kWh .. . 138,000 x .7 ; fuel cost escalated 2% above inflation rate (1979 base = 89¢/gal) 5 Incl. 10% system losses. 'I ,. , I , , , • • , " ., ., ,. ., I • f , , , I If' Bethel -Appendix A APA12/Q APPENDIX A-6 NULATO COAL FIELD RECONNAISSANCE REPORT Prepared by Marks Engineering Anchorage, Alaska for Alaska Power Authority A-41 Bethel -Appendix A APA12/Q NULATO COAL FIELD RECONNAISSANCE REPORT A. COAL AND WOOD RESOURCES 1. Study Area Within an area two miles each side of the Yukon River between Galena and Kaltag the wood and coal fuel resources were briefly examined with the following results. a. Coal and Wood Resources Literature Summary: (1) Coal resources: By far the greatest amount of literature available on the coal resources of the study area ;s that provided by the United States Geological Survey. A list of available references from that source is attached to this report (Item I). The coal resources map available from the State of Alaska was prepared recently by the Division of Geophysical and Geological Survey by extrapolating from USGS data without the benefit of additional on-site investigation so should be used with great caution. A summary of all the USGS data available leads to the following description of the coal potential of the study area: The coal seams are found in the Cretaceous Kaltag formation which is composed of sandstone, silt-stone, shale, and coal seams. The coal beds are thin and usually included within a carbonaceous bed that makes the coal appear thicker than it is. Most coal beds contain less than one foot of clean coal and the carbonaceous zones may approach three feet in thickness. There are four documented study area outcrops, as follows: (a) Ten miles above Nulato (Pickart Mine). Thickness averaged 30" over 300 feet of adit. Strike = NE and dip = 35°N. Also at least four additional seams reported stratigraphically higher but little is known of them. A-43 Bethel -Appendix A APA12/Q (b) One mile above Nulato within 2~ feet of boney coal, six inches of good coal in sandstone. Very little development. (c) Four miles below Nulato = Bush Mine. Seam was probably less than two feet but contained areas of crushed coal four to five feet thick. Sandstone wall rocks. (d) Nine miles below Nulato = Blatchford Mine. Thickness was very irregular with masses of coal up to eight feet in diameter (after adit followed seam that pinched to less than one inch). Mine was located below river level in summer. Average quality of seams from the various USGS examinecd sources; moisture = 2% volitile matter = 25% fixed carbon = 65% ash = 7% sulfur = 0.6% heating value = 11,000 ± 10% BTU/lb. b. Coal and Wood Resources Field Examination: (1) Coal Resources: From September 22 through the 25th all the sedimentary sequence exposures were examined between Whiskey Creek (approximately 24 miles upstream from Galena) and Kaltag. These exposures are limited to the north and west bank of the Yukon between these two locations, and clean exposures are limited. Results follow: Whiskey Creek to Galena Only one coal seam was observed, and this was located in the exposed hillside below VABM Lewis 709. The exposure was poor but appeared to show a seam thickness of less than one foot mixed with carbonaceous shale. I assume this to be the coal location identified by var; ous USGS pub 1 i cat ions as the Nahoc 1 at i 1 ten deposit. The zone is very thin, the seam dip steep, and the seam holds no promise for development from the surface. Underground mining would not be feasible under current conditions. (See summary comments.) Quality information could not be estimated except to conjecture that the seam would likely conform to the specifications of the USGS (see above). A-44 • • • .. .' .. .. Bethel -Appendix A APA121Q Galena to Negotsena Creek No coal exposures noted. Negotsena Creek to NUlato I walked most of the di stance between these two 1 ocat ions and observed several small carbonaeous shales, some containing very thin but obviously good quality coal (less than six inches of coal thickness). Normally such a traverse would not be possible, however, due to the time of year, the water level of the Yukon had fallen sufficiently to negotiate some rather abrupt cl iffs. Much of the time it was raining hard and the bluff exhibited very active erosion (1 had to step quickly to avoid falling rock on several occasions). The most interesting seam sequence was located between Negotsena Creek and a point perhaps 2~ miles down stream. This sequence contained three feet of carbonaceous shale including six to nine inches of clean, hard coal. I had directions from several natives for the location of the old Pickart Mine portal but was unable to actually locate thi s dri ft but assume the seam mentioned above to be the same as that mined at the Pickart Mine. It is not unusual that the old prospects were not obvious when one considers the time lapse (77 years) and the act i ve hill side eros i on in evi dence. The Pickart seam appeared to strike northeast and dip approximately 30 o N. No surface mining potential exists at this location and underground mining would not be feasible under current conditions (see summary comments). Quality is assumed by field examination to approximate that assigned by USGS (page A-44). The Nulato coal bed described by the USGS as being located a mile upstream from Nulato could not be found during this visit, but I feel confident that it does exist as described by the USGS. Nulato to Kaltag Only one area of interest was noted along this stretch of the Yukon River. In an abrupt bluff approximately 2~ miles downstream from Benedum landing are located several carbonaceous shale seams that make thin and often intermittent bands of coal. I was able to uncover one chunk of coal for my campfire that measured roughly l~ feet by one foot A-45 Bethel -Appendix A APA12/Q but it was not all clean coal. I am sure that this is also the site of the Blatchford Mine described by the USGS. The river level was not yet low enough to expose the portal and there was no evidence of any prior development. The coal bearing sequence available for examination did not in any way show any probability for surface development and underground mining would not be feasible under current conditions (see summary comments). Quality;s assumed by field examination to approximate that assigned by the USGS (page A-44). The USGS describes one additional coal seam upstream from the Blatchford Mine. four miles downstream from Nulato. known as the Bush Mine. Considerable time was spent examining the area for this old prospect and also for an old oil seep mentioned in literature comprising the Nulato No.1 oil exploration hole report and corroborated by two elderly natives in Nulato. Neither the mine nor the seep was located. Additional miscellaneous information and summary. The well logs for the Nulato No.1 oil exploration hole (approximately 15 miles southwest of Nulato) are not very complete for the interval from the surface to 400 feet. but there are some indications that several coal beari ng zones were penetrated. It is possible that three separate seams located between 300 and 400 feet from the surface coul d amount to something of value. This was the only encouraging evidence that I could uncover for the entire study area. It is my opinion that the Kaltag Cretaceous sequence does not at thi s time show economic viability but that sufficient evicence exi sts to encourage further exp 1 orat ion. Such exploration effort would be most fruitful if expanded north of Nulato between the North fork of the Nulato River. and the Yukon (or along either bank of Mukluk Creek to a point five miles north of its source). Because the coal seams are so thin, the topography so steep. and the seam di p adverse to hi 11 5 i de exposure, I can only conclude that no surface mining potential currently exists in the study area. Primarily because of lack of seam thickness I also must concl ude that underground mi ni ng woul d be prohibitively expensive under the best of conditions (experienced labor force, equipment availability. etc. all of which do not exist to any degree ;n the A-46 .' .. till' .. • .. • Bethel -Appendix A APA12/Q study area). To attempt underground mining with an inexperienced crew would ask for certain problems with the federal Department of Labor mine safety enforcement branch in addition to prohibitive operational problems. There is not current possibi- lity for commerical coal production from the study area. A-47 Bethel -Appendix A APA12lQ APPENDIX A-7 LISTINGS OF BIOMASS ENERGY CONVERSION PROCESSES A-49 State of the Art Biomass energy conversion processes for use of coal and wood for power and heat. Project Name Shasta Mi 11 ~ Anderson, Ca 1 if. Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Tennessee IECO Hybrid Wood Waste P1 ant for GeoProducts EWEB* Cogeneration P1 an t, Eugene, Oregon General Descri ption Wood bu rn i ng gas turbine-combined cycle p1 ant with waste heat Fluidized bed coal fired gas turbine p1 ant Wood waste - geothermal combined plant cycle Wood waste - cogeneration plant provides central space / ' heating, burns coa 1 + wood waste Mi chi gan-'I -E~~n~miC S~-~dy Northern I of proposed Peninsula I wood fired Proposal I Michigan ~--"I ~:::m::a::UdY .-.- Input 175 tons day / wood wastes .. NA . - 1050 tons/day wood wastes 920 tons day / 1340 tons/day wood 9B13 tons/day coal -- .~----.----..... -- Output .. ---- 4000 kW generation + 68000 1 bs/hr steam 200 kW initially plus process heat 55 MW 33.B MW I--~----.-- 50 MW ----.-- BOO t1W Capital Costs $/kW or Output . -1--------_.- $4 $lOOO/kW mi 11 ion +---- $1.B $9000/kW mi 11 ion i I i -. I $45 $818/kW mi 11 ion I r -.. ----- i , NA Power i , produced at 9.75 mills/ kW-hr in 1977 -- $47 $934/kW. mill ion 1--'---.. .--_ ..... $485 $61O/kW. mi 11 ion Ref: f-~-- ( 1) I r (2) ( 3) ( 4) (5) (5) l ___ . ______ 1~ ~~i~~~l~f!~d ~---------. ----'~ . ------- * This is the only existing commercial installation on this page. A-51 State of the Art (Cont'd) Proj ect Nane OtJens- Ill; noi s .-~~~~~-~~;on----I~ ~~t---r-O·u-t·-p-u-t---.------c-.a-p-it-a-l--~~::~-or----Re-;~ Output ---r---.-------f------+-------+------+----I Existing wood- coal fired power plant in : Tomahawk, Wis. 360 + : 9.2 MW tons/day wood NA NA (18) .... Consumers Proposed wood Power Co. fired power and Wolverine plant Cooperat i ve 950 + ! 25 t·1W tons/day j wood I $30] mi 11 ion --,-,. -.,-·_--·-·--i--------+--- $1228/kTi6l-~ .'-. ---------_._--- Washington Water Power Wood-fi red power plant under construction 1700 + 40 MW : $46.7 tons/day ! million $1l67/kW (7) \C" wood I , I t Co., Col vi lle, I Washington i _ .. ------.---+-----------+------.-.-----I------\----j Un; vers ity of Calif., Downdraft Gas Producer Union Electric Agr; cul tural waste-gas producer tested at Da vi s, Ca 1 if. 50 to 81 pounds per hour walnut shells and tree I I ! prunings : 10 kW from an interna 1 comb us ti on I engine I : Municipal --r 600 tonsIl Saves I refuse used day of 300 tons/ I. Co. , as suppl e-refuse day of Meremac nental fuel coal Pl an t , in coa 1 I I i NA NA (8) NA (9) St. Louis, I Boilers I: ::~ust;on r~;f~se ~;~ed-r 58-toos--'-II 1 MW gas--tj--N-A---Ir--N-A -+(~~i- Power Co. -: fluidized bed I per day I turbine ' I tJ EPA Demon-I gas turbi ne ; refuse I output ' I stration generator: I I' Pl ant, Me n 1 0 I i _. ___ .. I f::~ CA, CO'~;;'~-CYC11-197 tons/ 1 3.5 MW 0;:-+--$3.5 $1000lk-W'--r-(--1-1-)--t International! gas turbine day/wood: 1.5 MW I million Proposed I wood-coa 1 I and 32000 Plant , fired cycle I : lbs/hr i L-...-_____ . ___ .---.--_ ._ ... ___ L_ _: ~;~~~n~or I A-52 • • .. .' State of the Art (Cont'd) Project Na~ Nevada Power Co. ~ Gardner Plant General Description Smallest size coal fi red pl ant recently bui It Input 9904 BTU/ kW-hr -.- A-53 -. ~.--. ,- Output .---, .. - 125 r1w ,-----,~,-,~-~- Capita 1 Costs Ref: $/kW or $/BTU t-------- NA NA (12) State of the Art Biomass energy conversion process for wood and coal fuels (Gasifiers and Alternate Fuels). -_.--------,.---------------,--- Project Name Well man- Ga 1 usha I Coal Gasifier I r I " Curtiss- Wright Pressuri zed Fl ui d Bed Gasifier f Erie j Mining Co. I Hoyt Lakes. I Mi nn. I r~~~~:de. I Errrnett. I Idaho Plant General [)esc ri pt ion Oravo proposed small coal gasi fier-two compartment type II Experi mental pilot plant with coal gasifier to fuel a gas turbine generator with waste heat recovery Two stage fi xed bed Woodall- Ouckham deroonstration coal gasifier Wood waste gasifier to fuel a boiler and veneer dryer Input 78 ton day/co at $30 ton 156 to day/co at $30 ton 120 to day/co 550 to day/co 204 to day/ba ~~--. Output Capi tal Cost -r------ s/ 1.5 billion $3.5 al BTU/day of million / gas at 150 BTU/cubic foot 1---------_._------- nsf 3.2 billion $5.3 al BTU/day of million / gas at 150 BTU/cubic foot .~ ~---- nsl 7000 kW + NA al 20.5 mi 11 ion BTU/hr waste heat nsf 7 A bill ion $45 al BTU/day mi 11 ion of gas at I 175 BTU/CF --------------- nsf 1.4 bill ion $1.4 rk BTU/day mill ion of gas L __ ._ .. --~"'----_._---------- A-54 $/kW or $/BTU ---- $3.5/ mill ion BTU --.~- $3.3/ mi 11 ion BTU NA NA NA Ref: ( 13) ( 13) I ( 14) (15) (16 ) 1 Ill- I .l III, I ! .' State of the Art (Cont'd) Project Name Forest Fuels Wood Gasifier Forest Fuels Wood Gas ifier General [)esc ri pt ion Fl ue gas heated wood gasifier Fl ue gas heated wood gasifier Input 2.3 tons/ day/wood Output $36 mi 11 ion BTU/day Capital $/kW or Cost $/BTU $16,000 ----------r----------f---------- I -- Ref: ( 17) 18 tons/ I $288 $65,000 (17) day /wood l' mi 11 ion BTU/day -_.---~------ A-55 - Bethel -Appendix A APA15/A APPENDIX A-8 KISARALIK HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT HYDROLOGICAL ANALYSIS A-57 Bethel -Appendix A APAIS/A A. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS Even with the absence of any gaging data for the Kisaralik River a fair estimate of the power and energy available from a hydroelectric project can be made. A dam co ns t ructed with a sp ill way e 1 evat ion 1110 would prov ide 716.000 acre-feet of live storage. The power and energy which can be provided by the project are summarized as follows: Installed Capacity Firm Capacity Average Firm Generation Average Annual Secondary Generation Average Annual Total Generation 30,000 kW IS ,000 kW 131. 4xl0 6 kWh 5S.5xl0 6 kWh 186.9xl06 kWh In order to pass the probable maximum flood a spillway 375 feet long would be required. Water depth during the peak flow through the spillway would be 15 feet. B. METHOD OF ANALYSIS As there are no hydrologic data available for the Kisaralik drainage basin, two basic methods of analysis were used to derive an estimate of the capacity and energy potentially available from the development of the Kisaralik Hydroelectric Project. 1. Method 1: A conservative mean annual runoff at the Kisaralik damsite of 20 inches was chosen based on NOAA Techni ca 1 Memorandum NWS AR-I0 Mean Monthly and Annual Precipitation, Alaska by Gordan D. Kilday. This bulletin shows a mean annual precipita- tion of 20 inches for Bethel, 40 inches for the mountainous region near the Kisaralik River damsite and 80 inches along the ridge dividing the Kuskokwim and Wood River Basins. 2. Method 2: Twenty years of precipitation data for Bethel were correlated, on a month-by-month basis, to the Kisaralik damsite drainage basin by the use of monthly mean precipitation data provided in the above described NOAA Technical Memorandum NWS AR-I0. A probab 1 e 20-year preci pitat i on record and total volume of precipitation estimate was then made. A-59 Bethel -Appendix A APA15/A Mean temperature data for Bethel was then correlated to the Kisaralik area to estimate the probable monthly distribution of runoff into the Kisaralik River, i.e. the water available for power generation. A probable set of monthly flow data was then derived, assuming a ten percent loss due to infiltration and evaporation. (Table 1) Using the monthly flow data a mass hydrograph was constructed, and in conjunction with the area-capacity curves, the minimum and average streamflows were determined. C. CLIMATE While there are no weather stations in the immediate Kisaralik area, it was assumed that the mountainous region near the Kisaralik River damsite acts as a weather barrier which causes the area to receive approximately twice as much precipitation as that recorded at the Bethel station. As the damsite is also farther away from the moderating influence of the Bering Sea, it can also be assumed that temperature extremes will be considerably greater. D. SOILS AND VEGETATION The Kisaralik area is comprised of maturely dissected uplands separated by broad, sloping valleys. The vegetation is primarily tundra, but a few small stands of stunted white spruce occupy several valleys that are protected from strong winds. Occasional black spruce grow on low foot slopes. Solifluction lobes are common on long slopes, and a few frost-scarred areas occur on ridges. The dominant soils ;n valleys and on foot slopes formed in thick deposits of loamy colluvium, but a few of the soils on river terraces consist of very gravelly alluvial material. On ridges and hills, most of the soils formed in very gravelly residual material over weathered bedrock. Much of the lower areas consist of poorly drained soils with a shallow permafrost table that occupy broad valleys and long foot slopes. They formed in thick deposits of loamy colluvial sediment. The dominant vegetation is sedges, mosses, low shrubs, and in a few places, stunted black spruce. Beneath a thick peaty surface mat, the soils consist of mottled, dark gray silt loam that contains black streaks of frost-churned organic matter. The hilly to steep areas consist of well drained soils with permafrost on rounded hills and ridges. They formed in very gravelly and stony residual material that is moderately deep over weathered A-60 .. .. .. .. .. .. Bethel -Appendix A APAI5/A bedrock. The vegetation is tundra, made up of grasses, patches of alder and willow brush, mosses, lichens, dwarf birch, and other shrubs and forbs. Beneath a thin mat of organic matter, the soils have a very dark grayish brown to dark brown very gravelly silt loam layer that is about 8 to 16 inches thick and is acid in reaction. The subsoil and substratum generally consist of olive gray, very gravelly and stony silt loam or loam. Although the soils have a mean annual temperature below freezing, the very gravelly material seldom retains enough moisture in the upper 40 inches to form ice rich permafrost. E. POWER POTENTIAL Using Method I, as described in Section 1.1, the 544 square miles or 348,160 acres with 20 inches of runoff (1.67 feet) calculates to 580,270 acre-feet of runoff per year. The total runoff of 580,270 acre-feet per year equates to an average annual flow of 800 cfs. Using the equation, kW; 0.07 (Q) (MEH) , assuming that 800 cfs (Q) average would flow during the driest year with a mean effective head (MEH) of 265 feet, the project would develop 15,000 kW continuously or 131,400 MWh of firm energy per year. Using Method 2, as described in Section 1.1, it was determined that an annual flow of 1000 cfs could be maintained during the driest year. Us i ng the above equation, wi th a mean effective head of 265 feet and a flowrate of 1000 cfs, the project would develop 18,600 kW continuously or 162,900 MWh of firm energy per year. The average flowrate over the 20-year period of record was calculated as 1150 cfs. Using this flowrate, and the above cited equation, the average annual secondary energy would be 55,500 MWh. Due to the lack of streamflow information, it was deemed conservative to use the firm power estimate computed using Method 1. The available secondary energy was estimated using Method 2. The results of the power potential analysis are as follows: Installed Capacity Firm Capacity Average Annual Firm Generation Average Annual Secondary Generation Average Annual Total Generation· A-61 30,000 kW 15,000 kW 131. 4xl0 6 kWh 55.5xl06 kWh 186.9xl06 kWh Bethel -Appendix A APAI5/A F. PROBABLE MAXIMUM FLOOD L 2. 3. Probable Maximum Precipitation Probable maximum precipitation amounts for the Kisaralik damsite were determined from references to the U.S. Weather Bureau Technical Paper #47. This source cites 24 hour and 6 hour Probable Maximum Precipitation amounts of 14.0 and 9.0 inches, respectively. In accordance with methods outlined in this source, these precipitation amounts were adjusted to reflect the size of the Kisaralik drainage basin. The values were then broken down into hourly increments, assuming a total of 3 inches of snowmelt would occur in addition to the probable maximum precipitation. This hourly distribution was then arranged into the most critical sequence to determine the greatest possible inflow design flood. Inflow Design Flood Following methods outlined in the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation's Design of Small Dams, the probable maximum precipitation was used to develop a series of unit hydrographs. The sum of the ordinates of the unit hydrographs provided the probable maximum inflow of water into the reservoir. The instantaneous peak inflow was calculated to be 480,000 cfs. Spillway Size For the purpose of preliminary slzlng of an adequate spillway to pass the inflow design flood, a spillway rating curve was constructed for several spillway sizes. Because of the length of the drainage basin (large time of concentration) the peak of the inflow design flood will be significantly attenuated. For a water depth (h) of 15 feet, using an attenuation factor (AF) of 25% and a downstream hazard factor (DHF) of 60%, it was determined that the following length (b) would be required to pass the inflow design flood: b = (AF) (DHF) (Peak Inflow Rate) 3.33 (Hl.5) b = (0.25) (0.60) (480,000) = 372 feet 3.33 (151.5) A 375 foot-long spillway would be adequate to pass the inflow design flood. A-62 .. .. .. .. • .. Bethel -Appendix A APA15/A G. REFERENCES Miller, John F. 1963. Probable Maximum Precipitation -Rainfall Frequency Data for Alaska, Technical Publication No. 47, U.S. Weather Bureau, 1963. Riggs, H. C. December 1969. IIMean Streamflow from Discharge Measurements, IIBulletin of the International Association of Scientific Hydrology Vol. XIV, No.4. U.S. Department of Commerce, National Weather Service. 1978. Local Climatological Data -Bethel, Alaska. U.S. Department of Commerce, National Weather Service. 1974. Mean Monthly and Annual Precipitation -Alaska, NOAA Technical Memorandum NWS AR-10. U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. 1973. Design of Small Dams. U.S. Weather Bureau. 1966. Probable Max'imum Precipitation - Northwest States, Hydrometeorological Report No. 43. A-63 APA014/J1 TABLE 1 KISARALI K HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT MONTHLY DISCHARGE (IN 1000 ACRE-FEET) AT THE DAMSITE YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC TOTALS 1959 4.7 7.5 18.7 64.5 115.1 152.5 161.8 154.3 131.0 83.3 38.4 3.7 935.5 1960 5.5 8.9 22.1 76.3 136.0 180.2 191.3 182.4 154.8 98.4 45.3 4.4 1,105.6 1961 5.2 8.4 20.9 72.2 128.7 170.6 181.0 172.7 146.5 93.1 42.9 4.2 1,046.4 1962 3.7 5.9 14.9 51.2 91.3 121.0 128.4 122.5 103.9 66.1 30.4 3.0 742.3 1963 6.2 10.0 25.0 86.1 153.4 203.4 215.9 205.9 174.7 111 . 1 51.2 5.0 1,248.0 1964 3.0 4.8 12.0 41.4 73.7 97.7 103.7 98.9 83.9 53.4 24.6 2.4 599.5 1965 4.2 6.7 16.9 58.1 103.6 137.3 145.7 139.0 117.9 75.0 34.5 3.4 842.3 1966 3.4 5.5 13.7 47.2 84.1 111.5 118.4 112.9 95.8 60.9 28.0 2.7 684.1 1967 4.4 7.1 17.7 60.9 108.6 143.9 152.7 145.7 123.6 78.6 36.2 3.5 882.9 1968 2.8 4.4 11 .1 38.2 68.1 90.3 95.8 91.4 77.5 49.3 22.7 2.2 553.8 > 1969 3.0 4.8 12.1 41.8 74.4 98.6 104.7 99.9 84.7 53.9 24.8 2.4 605.1 I 0\ 1970 4.8 7.6 19.0 65.6 116.9 154.9 164.4 156.8 133.0 84.6 39.0 3.8 950.4 +:- 1971 4.6 7.3 18.2 62.9 112.2 148.6 157.8 150.5 127.7 81.2 37.4 3.6 912.0 1972 3.7 5.9 14.6 50.4 89.9 119.1 126.4 120.6 102.3 65.0 30.0 2.9 730.8 1973 3.7 6.0 14.9 51.4 91.6 121.4 128.8 122.9 104.3 66.3 30.5 3.0 744.8 1974 4.3 6.9 17 .4 59.9 106.7 141.4 150.1 143.1 121.4 77.2 35.6 3.5 867.5 1975 3.9 6.3 15.7 54.3 96.8 128.3 136.1 129.8 110.2 70.0 32.3 3.1 786.8 1976 2.2 3.5 8.6 29.8 53.1 70.3 74.6 71.2 60.4 38.4 17.7 1.7 431.5 1977 4.5 7.2 18.0 61.9 110.4 146.3 155.2 148.1 125.6 79.9 36.8 3.6 897.5 1978 5.4 8.6 21.5 74.1 132.1 175.1 185.8 177.2 150.4 95.6 44.0 4.3 1,074.1 Average 4.2 6.7 16.6 57.4 102.3 135.6 143.9 137.3 116.5 74.1 34.1 3.3 832.0 % of Average Annual 0.5 0.8 2.0 6.9 12.3 16.3 17.3 16.5 14.0 8.9 4.1 0.4 100.0 , , APPENDIX B COST ESTIMATES Bethel -Appendix B APA012/J APPENDIX B COST ESTIMATES 1. Transmission Systems a. 138 kV Three Phase Overhead Line REA Standard design, average span 1000 1 Structures, 5 @ $5000 Conductor 556 MCM ACSR, 17000 1 @ $500/1000 1 Line Hardware & Anchors $1000/Structure Survey Clearing 30% @ $1500/1000 1 Freight Labor 900 manhours @ $50 Engineering 12% Use NOTE: Ri ght-of-Way is not i ncl uded. b. Transmission/Distribution Substation Transformer 12/16/20 MVA Switchgear Bus Structure & Hardware Freight Labor 1500 man hours @ $50 Eng; neeri ng 10% Real Estate For 40 "'IVA Transformer Add B-1 Use 1979 $/mile $ 25,000.00 8,500.00 5,000.00 8,000.00 2,376.00 5,000.00 45,000.00 $ 98,876.00 12,000.00 ($110,876.00) $125,000.00 1979 -$ $180,000.00 60,000.00 40,000.00 15,000.00 75,000.00 $370,000.00 37,000.00 $407,000.00 25,000.00 ($432,000.00) ~,OOO.OO $150,000.00 Bethel -Appendix B APA012/J c. Single Wire Ground Return Up To 40 kV 2 Pole Structures, 800' Spans d. Structures, 7 @ $180 (local timber) Conductor 7#8 Alumoweld 5300', $500/1000' Line Hardware Survey Clearing 20%/mile @ $700/1000' Freight Local Labor 250 manhours @ $20 Engineering For Conductor 4/0 ACSR add: 7 Structures and Hardware Conductor $250/1000' Labor For river crossings, bog shoes and add it i ona 1 guys labor in difficult terrain add Use NOTE: Right-of-Way is not included. Terminal for Sinrle Wire Ground Return Transmission Up 0 40 kV Ground Grid 20, 20 1 deep rods interconnected with about 1000 1 of wire Labor 50 manhours @ $20 Transformer, 10, up to 1 MVA including shipping and installation Switchgear and Protection Engineering Use B-2 Per Mil e 1979 $ $ 1,260.00 2,650.00 1,600.00 2,000.00 739.00 600.00 5,000.00 $13,849.00 1,000.00 ($14,849.00) $15,000.00 $ 2,860.00 1,320.00 5,000.00 $ 9,180.00 9,500.00 $ 4,OOq.OQ 1979 $ $ 1,500.00 1,000.00 22,000.00 5,000.00 $29,500.00 5,000.00 ($34,500.00) $35,000.00 • .. • • Bethel -Appendix B APA012/J 2. Wind Generating Equipment a. 1.5 kW windplant with induction generator and control (Enertech 1500) Tower including 60-3 pole, pole top adapter guy wires and anchors (4) Control anemometer wire, 400 1 Freight 4000 lbs. @ $17/100 lbs. Installation 100 manhours @ $50 b. 15 kW windplant with induction-generator (Grumman WS-33) Tower 40', steel Control Anemometer wire 400' Freight 8,000 lbs at $17/100 lbs Installation 200 man hours @ $50.00 Use 3. Frequency and Phase Conversion 1979 $ $ 2,900.00 800.00 60.00 680.00 $ 5!000.00 9,440.00 $ 35,000.00 2,000.00 60.00 1,360.00 10,000.00 $(48,420.00) 50,000.00 a. Single Wire Ground Return Low Frequency Transmission Up To 80 kV 2 Pole Structures, 500 1 Spans Structures, 11 @ $300 (imported timber) Conductor 266.8 ACSR, 5,300 1 @ $750/1000 1 Line Hardware Survey Clearing 20%/mile $700/1000 1 Freight Labor 250 manhours @ $50 (contract labor) Engi neeri ng 10% to account for river crossings, bog shoes etc. Use B-3 Per Mile 1979 $ $ 3,300.00 3,975.00 5,500.00 2,000.00 739.00 1,500.00 12,500.00 $29,514.00 2,951.00 ($32,465.00) ~40,OOO.00 Bethel -Appendix B APA012/J b. Phase and Frequency Conversion Equipment (i) Low frequency (25 Hz) to high frequency (60 Hz) and Ie to 3e for 1 to 2 MW per terminal (manufacturer's data: ASEA, Sweden) Plus freight & engineering, contingencies (ii) Phase conversion equipment Ie to 3e estimate 8-4 $ $ $ 1979 $ Per kW 200.00 100.00 300.00 150.00 III' .,.. ... • .. • • .. II< .. APPENDIX C ECONOMIC EVALUATION DETAIL SHEETS Bethel -Appendix C APAI2/K APPENDIX C ECONOMIC EVALUATION DETAIL SHEETS I. LIST OF ALTERNATIVES Description Bethel, Low Diesel, Load Small Village Communities Low Diesel, Load Intertied System Low Load, Diesel Golden Gate Hydro, Low Load Golden Gate Hydro, High Load Golden Gate Hydro, Load Load + Heat Golden Gate Hydro, High Load + Heat II. PARAMETERS USED FOR ECONOMIC EVALUATION A. POWER DEMAND AND ENERGY REQUIREMENTS Alternative # I-A 2-A 3-A 4-A 4-B 5-A 5-B The data listed in Section II have been utilized. A system loss rate of 10% has been added to the energy sold. The listed demands have been used as coincident demand, although it is expected that an intertied system would have a coincident demand of .98 or .99 of the listed demand. B. ENERGY SOURCES AND SUPPLIES System firm capacity is assured by assuming the largest unit in the system is non-operational. For the alternatives investigating intertied system, firm capacity is also maintained in each of the individual communities. Hydroelectric development alternatives with a single transmission line assume failure of this line, which requires reserve capacity equal to the hydroplant plus small communities. C-1 Bethel -Appendix C APA12lK C. SWGR LINE LOSSES Line losses incurred on the SWGR Intertie System have been ignored as they represent less than one percent of the system's annual energy requirements. D. BASE YEAR All cost data is for the base year of 1979. E. EXISTING PLANT VALUES Bethel -Taken from December 1978 annual and financial statement. Village Plant -Estimated at $870 per installed kW. F. 1. ESCALATION RATES Fuel Costs An inflation rate of ten percent per year is used through 1984. The inflation rate ;s then decreased to six percent per year for the remainder of the study. 2. All Other Costs G. An inflation rate of eight percent year is used through 1984 for all other costs (i. e. 1 abor I construction t rna; ntenance etc.) The rate is then decreased to four precent per year for the remainder of the study. FUEL COSTS The fuel costs as of November 1979 were: 1. Bethel -$O.89/gallon 2. Villages -$1.60/gallon (Average) These prices are inflated as previously mentioned. Escalated fuel prices by year are shown in Table C~l.l. H. GENERATION FUEL EFFICIENCIES The following assumptions are made in regard to fuel cost calculations and usage: C-2 'til) • • • .. • Bethel -Appendix C APA12/K 1. Heat content of 138,000 BTU/gal. of diesel fuel. 2. A generating efficiency of 8.0 kWh/gal. in the villages. 3. A generating efficiency of 13.0 kWh/gal. in Bethel. I. LUBE OIL, GREASE AND OPERATING SUPPLIES Calculated as 10% of fuel cost. J. DIESEL MAINTENANCE MATERIALS (REPAIR MATERIALS) Estimated at $6.77/MWh generated in Bethel and $10.16/MWh in the villages. These estimates are based on utility records. Inflation rates are applied as listed. K. HYDRO MAINTENANCE MATERIALS Estimated at $0.60/MWh generated. Estimates are based on Alaskan utility records. L. INSURANCE A single insurance rate of $3.00/$1,000 invested is applied to all investments. This rate is inflated as stated above. M. LABOR The present production plant 1 abor costs were determi ned from utility records for the community of Bethel, and were estimated at $20,000 per year for the remainder of the communities in the study. Taxes, insurance and all fringe benefits are included. For each 4,000 kW diesel plant addition an additional plant operator salaried at $40,OOO/yr. (including benefits, etc.) is assumed. Additional plant operators will not be required for Golden Gate Hydro project as ; t wi 11 be des i gned for remote contra 1 ope rat i on and it; s assumed that the crew size will be sufficient, with the diesel plants mostly in standby service. N. DIESEL PLANT COST Cost of install ing diesel generation is estimated at $870 per installed kW. These costs represent installation costs as recently experi enced inA 1 as ka. I nfl at i on rate has been app 1 i ed to future installation. C-3 • FUEL COST Tables APA012/N1 iIOt' • .. II!" TABLE C-1.1 ... FUEL COST .. for BETHEL AREA in dollars/gallon Year Bethel Villages .. .." 1979 .89 1.60 1980 .98 1.76 ., 1981 1.08 1.94 1982 1.19 2.13 1983 1.31 2.34 • 1984 1.44 2.58 ., 1985 1.53 2.73 1986 1.62 2.89 .. 1987 1.72 3.06 .. 1988 1.82 3.25 ., 1989 1.93 3.44 1990 2.05 3.65 .' 1991 2.17 3.87 1992 2.30 4.10 • 1993 2.44 4.35 .. 1994 2.59 4.61 • 1995 2.75 4.88 • 1996 2.92 5.18 1997 3.10 5.49 til' 1998 3.29 5.82 lilt; 1999 3.49 6.16 2000 3.70 6.53 .. .. inflated 10% through 1984 .. 6% thereafter •• • .. .. ., .-.. .. ... C-4 ., .. Bethel -Appendix C APA12/K O. HYDRO PLANT COST See Section III. P. DEBT SERVICE Debt service on new investments has been calculated using 2, 5, 7 and 9 percent cost of money. An amortization period of 35 years is used in all alternatives. Q. DISCOUNT RATE A 7% discount rate has been used in all alternatives for present worth calculations. R. TAXES Taxes are assumed as one percent of the taxable investment. C-5 Bethel -Appendix C APA12/K III. EXPLANATION OF COMPUTER PRINTOUTS The following is a line by line explanation of the enclosed computer printouts. 1. 2. DESCRIPTION Load Demand Demand -kW Energy -MWh Sources -kW A. Existing Diesel Location or Unit 1-12 B. C. D. Additional Diesel Unit 1-6 Existing Hydro Unit 1-6 Additional Hydro Unit 1-3 Total Capacity -kW Largest Unit Firm Capacity Surplus or (Deficit) -kW Net Hydro Capacity -MWh Net Diesel Capacity -MWh Diesel Generation -MWh C-6 EXPLANATION Projected peak load in kW Projected Energy Requirement in MWh Existing diesel units in kW Diesel Additions in kW and year added Existing Hydro units in kW Hydro additions in kW and year added Sum of lines A, B, C, D above Largest installed unit (See page C-2 for definition) Total capacity less largest unit Surplus or deficit in existing generation capacity Net annual MWh available from hydro generation Net annual MWh available from diesel generation and is calculated by multiplying firm capacity in MW by 8760 hrs./yr. Diesel Generation in MWh required to supply load enegy. Calculated as Load energy (MWh) less net hydro capacity (MWh), with diesel providing peaking energy where required. .. • • .. • • • .. Bethel -Appendix C APA12/K DESCRIPTION Surplus or (Deficit) - MWh 3. Investment Cost ($1000) 1979 Dollars A. Existing Diesel B. Additional Diesel Units 1-6 C. Existing Hydro D. Add it i ona 1 Hydro Units I-B E. Transmission Plant Unit 1-2 F. Taxes Prod. P~ant Inflated Values Total ($1000) 1979 Dollars Inflated values 4. Fixed cost ($1,000) Inflated values A. B. Debt Service L Existing 2. Additions Subtotal 2%-9% Insurance Total Fixed Cost ($1000) 2% -9% C-7 EXPLANATION Surplus or deficit in existing energy capacity. Cost of existing diesel units in 1979 dollars. Cost of additional diesel units in 1979 dollars Cost of existing hydro units in 1979 dollars Cost of additional hydro units in 1979 dollars Cost of transmission plant additions in 1979 dollars Estimated taxes on private utilities' investments and income Sum of lines A through E above Sum of Lines A through E above adjusted for inflation Existing debt service on investments Debt service calculated on inflated new additions using 2, 5, 7, and 9% cost of money. Calculated as $3/$1000 invested (inflated values) Sum of Debt Service Existing, Debt Service Additions Insurance and Taxes Production Plant Bethel -Appendix C APA12/K DESCRIPTION 5. Production Costs ($1000) Inflated value A. Operation and Maint. 1. Di ese 1 2. Hydro B. Fuel Oil and Lube Total Production Cost ($1000) Total Annual Cost ($1000) 2% -9% Energy Requirements - MWH Mills/kWh 2%-9% C. Present Worth Annual Cost ($1000) 2%-9% D. Accumulated Annual Cost ($1000) 2%-9% E. Accumulated Present Worth Annual Cost ($1000) 2%-9% F. Accumulated Present Worth of Energy Mills/kWh 2%-9% C-8 EXPLANATION Sum of yearly labor cost related to diesel generation and diesel main- tenance cost. Sum of yearly labor or cost related to hydro generation and hydro maintenance cost Sum of fuel oil and lube oil cost. Lube oil cost ;s assumed as 10% of fuel oil cost. Fuel oil cost ;s calculated by dividing Diesel Genera- tion (MWh) by fuel efficiency in kWh/gal. and multiplying result by the fuel oil cost in $/gal. Sum of Diesel and Hydro Operation and Maint., and Fuel and Lube Oil cost Sum of total fixed cost and total production cost Project energy requirements in MWh same as line 1, load energy -MWh Obtained by dividing total annual cost by energy requirements in MWh and multiplying by 1000 Present worth of total annual cost 2%-9% Accumulated total of annual cost 2%-9% Accumulated total of the present worth. of annual costs. 2%-9% Accumulated total of the present worth of annual energy cost in mills/kWh. 2%-9% • .. • .. • • • I-A Pi)WER t:O";T '; TIJOV ALTERSME 1·,\ BETHEL DIESEL -LOW LOAD \97'"' 1980 1'"'81 lq:3~ 1"'83 1984 1ge:s 1<>86 1997 1'!'>88 1"':39 I. LOAD DEMAND OEMAND -1"1.1 4.397 4.6b6 4~93:' 5.2.,1 5,46:9 '5.735 6.0.,:) 6.270 6,'537 6.904 7.07':!. f:NE"'GV -MWH 19.317 21,2'57 :?:?,/:.67 24,077 2'5,436 26.998 28.309 29.719 31,128 32.'5:39 ,)3,94? ., SOURr:E-3 -~:W A. EXISTING DIESEL L!JCAT ION OR IJNIT I :::.400 e.4')0 $,400 3.400 9.40t) 3,4(;0 9,400 9.400 $.400 $.40t) 3,400 2 '3 4 '5 ", 7 '" <;> 10 II 12 B. ADDITIONAL DIE"·EL tJNIT 1 2,100 :;, lor) 2. lOt) 2,100 2, tOO 2.100 2.100 2,100 2.100 2, to.) 2 '3 " ':. (, C. ExtSTINO HY[lRI) tJNl T I :2 [I. AOOITIONAL HVORO UNIT I ::: ·3 TOTAL CAPACITV -1'\.1 S .. 4;"If) It)~ 50r) t t) s 5 1)f) 10 .. ')1)(\ 10, ~i)O 10,5f)!) Ij)~ ':-0') 10,50" 10,5t)0 11),'500 10~~OO LAROEST l)NIT :,100 ~~ lOt) :-. 1 (li) :: 't 10() "2. 1 (H) ~t 100 2.100 ~, 100 :.l()O 2' J 1 (10 :.1<)0 F"IRM CAP':KITV 6, ?('1.) 8",4tH) :3.400 :3,4"0 '3" 4(H) :3.40') 8,400 8,4t'0 :~. 4<)0 $,4(H) "'.4<)1) ';:URPl.US OR (OEFICnJ -,:\.1 1, Q(\3 3. 7~:4 3.4/;.7 J. 1 .:)"} : ... ~~.2' Z~b6~ :::, :3'''7 Z. 1 ?!) 1.8·<') 1, -::~.:~ 1 .. J'::3 NET HYDRO CAPACITy -MWH ~'CT DIC'?EL CAPAC lTV -MWH !--:;, 1~:~ 71, :':34 1'3~,)S4 7~.C:::;:4 9 ~"~4 73,~e4 73.'5B4 73. 5:~4 7'3,5:34 7'3 .. :':34 73~ '5:34 D! f"~.rL r·O:IJEPATIJ)N -MI'H 1"'.817 :1. ~:C::7 "~:.1.·,1>7 :4.('77 ~ 4'~,:" :6~ :;Y'B 2!3, "11):3; ~.:). 71:3 31.1':::" '32. '5.::::.:) ~;l. ':)4'~ ';I}RF"'Ltl'; !)r~ r DCF Ie IT) -M'-IH 3'5 .. ')71 52, :;:::'7 o:.n. 'J17 4'1. C::07 ~ t)9::: 46. I...,"?':. 45. Z7/;. 43! :?':,./~ 4~, 45~ ... 41.045 :~'~.I) ::-:5 l-A 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 1. LOAO DEMAND DEI1Ar,m -I(I.J 7.339 7.730 8.121 9.512 9.903 9,294 9.b85 10.076 10.467 10,l!~59 11.249 ENE~'GY -MI.JH '35.359 37.243 39,127 41.011 41.1395 44.779 46.662 49.546 50.430 '52.314 '54.198 2. SOIJRCES -KW A. EX ISTINO DIESEL LOCATION OR UNIT 1 8.400 8.400 3.400 8.400 9.400 8.400 8.400 9.400 9.400 9.400 8.400 2 '3 4 '5 6 7 9 9 10 11 12 B. ADDITIONAL DIESEL LINlT 1 2.100 2.100 2.100 2.100 2.100 2.100 2.100 2.100 2.100 2.100 2.100 :2 ~t 100 :2.100 2.100 2.100 2.100 2,100 2, 100 2.100 2.100 '3 2,100 2.100 2,100 4 '5 b C. EXISTING HYDRO UNIT I :2 O. ADDITIONAL HYDRO UNIT :2 '3 TOTAL CAPACITy -1<101 10.'500 10.500 12.600 12.600 12.600 12.600 12.600 12.600 14.700 14.700 14.700 LARGEST IJN IT Z.100 2.100 2.100 2.100 2,100 2,100 2.100 2,100 2.100 2.100 2.100 FIRM CAPACITy 3.400 8.400 10.'500 to. 500 10.'500 10.500 10.500 10.500 12.600 12.600 12.600 SURPLUS OR <DEFICIT) -KW 1.061 670 2t37~ 1.988 1.597 I.,Z06 81'5 424 ::.133 1,742 1.351 NET HVORO CAPACITY -MI.JH NET DIESEL CAPACITy -MI.JH 73.584 73.584 91.9130 91.980 91.980 91,990 91.980 91.980 110.376 110,376 ! 10.376 DIESEL GENERATION -MWH 3'5.3'59 37.243 39.127 41.011 41.895 44.779 46.662 48.546 '50.430 52.314 '54. lOS '3URPLUS OR (DEFICIT) -MWH 3S.22~ 36.341 '52.853 50.969 50.095 47.201 4'5.318 43.434 59.946 S8.062 56.173 fI , ~. , ! I . , , . I , , . , . , , , , , , , I • " , *, .• I-A 1979 1980 1991 1<>82 1993 1984 198~ 1996 1997 1988 1999 3. INVESTMENT COSTS ($1000) 1979 DOLLARS A. EX ISTING DIESEL 2.~4~ 2.~4S 2.~4~ 2.!54~ 2.54'5 2.~45 2,545 2.54'5 2~~45 2.~4S 2.545 B. AODITIONAL DIESEL UNIT 1 1.827 1.927 1.827 1.327 1.327 1.927 1.927 1.927 1.927 t .,827 ::: 3 4 5 6 C. EX ISTINO HYDRO D. ADDI TIONAL HYDRO UNIT 1 :2 3 E. TRANSMISSION PLANT 1'1001 HONS UNIT 1 2 F. TAXES PROD. PLANT INFLATED VALUES 25 46 SO 54 59 63 66 69 71 74 77 TOTAL (111000) 1"'79 DOLLARS ::-.~4-S 4."372 4.37::: 4.372 4,')72 4.372 4,372 4.372 4,")72 4.372 4.372 INFLATED VAL'.'ES 2~ ~.45 4,518 4.518 4.'519 4,")18 4.519 4.'518 4.518 4,51'3 4,518 4.518 4. FIXED COST (111000) INFLATED VALLIES A. DEBT SERVICE 1. EXISTING 183 IS3 183 183 183 183 183 183 183 183 183 2. ADDITIONS SUBTOTAL 21. 7<> 70 79 79 79 79 79 79 7° 79 'S:z 120 120 120 120 120 1::::0 1:0 120 120 L~O 7f. 152 t'5~ 152 152 152 152 152 15~ I~~ -'-1~2 91. IS7 IS7 197 187 IS7 187 IS7 187 IS7 187 S. INSURANCE 8 15 16 17 IS :::0 21 22 22 ::::3 ;;:4 f I TOTAL FIXED COST ('IOOOl 2% 5% 7% 9% 5. PRODUCTION COST <'1000l INFLATED VALUES A. OPERATION AND MAINT 1. DIESEL 2. HYDRO B. FUEL AND LUBE OIL TOTAL PRODUCTION COST ('1000) TOTAL ANNUAL COST ('1000) 2% 57. 7% 9% ENERGY REQUIREMENTS -M~H MILLS/KI..IH 2'X '5% 7% 97. C. PRESENT WORTH ANNUAL COST ('1000) 2% '5'Y. 7% 9% O. ACCLIMUL. ANN. COST (f1000) 5Y. 7%. <>"t. E. ACCUMULATED PRESENT WORTH ANNUAL COST (SIOOO) , I . , 1979 216 216 2!6 216 478 1.493 1.971 2.187 2.197 2.1137 2.197 110 110 110 110 2.1137 ::.187 ::.1137 2,187 2,187 2.187 ~.le7 2,187 .187 .IS7 • t87 .187 1980 323 364 396 431 '516 1.761 2,277 2,6QO 2.1.:t41 2,673 2.708 21.257 122 124 126 127 2.430 2,468 2.49:.3 2.'5'31 4.797 4.928 4.660 4.89 '5 4.617 4.6'5'5 4.685 4.718 1981 3213 369 401 436 '5'58 2.066 2.9~2 2.<>93 3.02'5 3.060 22,667 130 132 133 135 2~~7S 21614 2.642 ::.1:;.73 7.739 7,821 7.89'5 7~~55 7.19'5 7.::69 7.327 7.391 1982 333 374 406 441 602 3.346 3.389 3.421 3.4'56 24.077 139 141 142 144 2,733 ;;?71:;.6 2~79'3 ~.3~1 11.087 11.210 11.306 1I.4lt (),q:s 10.03':5 10.120 10.Z12 1983 339 380 412 447 6~0 2,$10 3.460 3.799 3.840 3.97Z 3.907 2'5.496 149 151 lSZ 1'53 2,89$ 2~930 2,954 2.9 91 14.886 15.050 1:5.179 1~;, 318 12,82'6 12.Q6"5 t3.~)'74 13.193 't , . , , II , , , 1984 34'5 386 418 453 702 4.308 4.349 4.381 4,416 11:;.0 162 163 164 3,072 3,101 3.124 3,149 19.194 19.399 19.'559 19.734 1'5.896 t6,Ob6 16.199 16.342 1985 34<> 390 422 457 730 3.639 4.369 4.718 4 .. 759 4.791 4,:326 29.308 167 168 169 170 3.144 :). 171 3.192 3.2:16 2:),912 24.159 24.350 ~4,560 19.04:: 19.237 19,3"0 1"'.'558 -~ 19$6 352 393 425 460 760 4.051 4.811 ~t 163 5'1'204 5.236 5.271 174 17'5 176 177 :3 .. 21~ 3.241 3.261 3,;::-83 29,075 2:9,,362 29 .. 536 ~9.S31 2Z .. 2'57 ~2.479 ~:,b51 2~.841 1987 355 396 42$ 4b3 790 5.641 '5,682 5.714 5.749 31.1 29 181 183 184 185 3,2:33 3.307 ').3"26 3.346 34.716 35.044 35.300 "J'5.580 2:5.':540 :::'5.78'5 25.<>77 ::6.187 '357 400 432 467 822 4.993 '5.805 6.164 6.205 6.237 6.272 32.539 189 191 192 193 3.3'53 3.37'5 3.3"':) 3.41::: 40.880 41,249 41.'537 41.85: 28,$9') 29.160 29~370 2~.'5Q~ 363 404 436 471 sss '5.'510 6.7:"9 6.769 6.801 0,836 33.949 198 I"'''' 200 :::01 3~4:('t 3.44\ 3.4'57 31147":. 47.609 48.018 49.:)38 4",b:,l:i3 3:::.313 32,1:;.01 3:::,827 33.074 I-A , I-A 197? 19!J1) 1?31 1?3::? 1<:>8') 1904 196'5 1986 19 87 19:30 1 "':'l.~ F. AC(UI1 PRES WORTH OF ENERGV I1ILL'3/I"WH 2% 110 224 ')38 4'5t '56'5 1:>79 790 9?8 I. DO') I. 106 1.207 '5% 110 221:> ')41 4'51:> '571 687 7?"J 90S 1 .01'5 1.11 9 1,;220 7% 110 228 ')44 460 '576 692 130'5 91'5 1,022 1,126 1.2:'3 9% ItO 229 347 46'5 532 699 812 922 1.030 I • 13'5 1.2')7 I-A 1990 1991 1992 1 9 93 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 3. INVE~TMENT COSTS ('11000) 1979 DOLLARS A. EX ISTING DIESEL 2,S4~ 2,545 2.545 2.545 2.~45 2.'545 2,545 2,~4S 2.545 2.545 2.545 B. ADOlTIONAL DIESEL UNIT 1 1.827 1.$27 1.927 1,3:::.!7 1.1327 1. :327 1.927 1,827 1.927 1.927 1.827 :2 1.821 1 t 827 1.927 1.927 1,827 1.927 1.827 1.9:27 1,827 3 1.827 1.927 1.827 4 ~ .' 6 C. EXISTING HYDRO D. ADDITIONAL HYDRO UNIT 1 :2 :) E. TRANSMISSION PLANT ADDITIONS UNIT 1 2 F. TAXES PROD. PLANT INFLATED VALUES 90 83 123 129 133 138 144 ISS 201 209 218 TOTAL ('51000) 1979 DOLLARS 4.:'372 4.372 6.199 6.199 6.1<><;> 6.199 6.19<;> 6.199 9.026 8,026 StO:=!6 INFLATED VALUES 4.518 4.'518 3.192 8.192 St 192 9, 1 '92 9.192 8,192 12.841 12.941 12.841 4. FIXED COST 1'11000 ) INFLATED vALUES A. DEBT SERvICE 1. EXISTINO IS3 193 133 193 193 193 193 183 183 183 183 2. ADDITIONS SllE<TOTAL 2~ 79 79 226 :?26 226 2:?6 226 226 412 412 412 SY. 120 120 344 34.4 344 344 344 344 623 628 6::3 7Y. 152 1S2 436 436 436 436 43i:-436 795 795 7"'5 <;>x 187 197 535 53S 53'5 '53'5 535 53S 975 "'75 975 B. I NSlIRANCe: 2'5 26 49 SI 53 Si:-S8 60 99 102 106 , f , . , , . « , , , , . , , , I-A 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 19<)6 1997 1999 199'" 2000 TOTAL FIXED COST ($1000) 2% 367 371 591 'SS9 59'S 603 611 624 994 906 919 ~4 408 412 699 706 713 721 729 742 1.110 1,122 1.135 7Yo 440 444 791 799 80'5 813 921 834 1.277 1.299 1.302 9'/' 47'5 479 .990 897 904 912 920 933 1.4'57 1.469 1,482 '5. PRODUCTION COST ($1000) INFLATED VALUES A. OPERATION AND MAl NT I . DIESEL SS9 924 1.042 I.OS3 t.127 1.172 1.219 1.267 1.318 1.371 1.426 2. HYDRO S. FllEL AND LUBE OIL 6.0S4 6.793 7.'564 8.404 9.318 10.311 11.339 12.560 13.830 1'S.204 16.696 TOTAL PRODUCTION COST ($1000) 6.973 7.717 9.606 9.4S7 10.44~ 11.433 12.609 13.927 15.148 11;..'57'5 19.12:2 TOTAL ANN'JAL COST ($1000) 2~. 7.340 8.088 9.187 10.07'5 11.040 12.086 t'3.Z1 Q 14.451 16.042 17.481 19.041 '5% 7.381 8.12Q 9.305 10.193 11.158 12~204 13.337 14.'569 10.2'5:3 \7.697 19.::::'57 7% 7.413 8.161 9.397 10.28'5 11.2'50 12.296 13.429 14.661 16.425 17. :';1<:>4 19,4:'4 9% 7.449 8.196 9.496 10.384 11.349 12.395 13.528 14.760 16.605 18.044 19.604 ENERGY REQUIREMENTS -MI.IH 3~:s. 359 37.243 39.127 41.011 42.895 44.779 46.662 48.546 50.430 52.314 '54.198 MILLS/KWH :y. zoe· 217 23"5 246 2-S7 270 2'3:) 2<';)(; 3t:J TJII -'~.I ~/. 209 21B 238 ~49 260 ::::7J ;:n6 30') 3~2 J)n )lIry'~ 7% 210 219 ~4f) 251 :!62 ~7"5 2BB 302 3::::6 341 J~.8 '"'7. : 11 220 ~43 :53 265 :77 290 304 329 34~ }/>: C. PRESENT WORTH ANNUAL COST 11110(0) 2% 3.487 3.591 31812 3."'07 4.001 4.0<>4 4.IS5 4.:276 4,436 4.517 4.'599 .,., 3.507 3,609 3,$61 3,953 4.044 4.134 4~Z~: 4. :310 4~4~S 4.573 4,651 " . 7" 3,522 3 .. o~4 3.899 ~ .. -:)89 4.078 4.165 4.2'51 4,;33S 4.54'1 4.616 4.b91 ""I. 3,11)3:3 3.639 3.941 4.027 4.113 4,l QQ 4,'::9:3 4.267 4.'591 4.663 4,735 D. ACC'UMLIL. ANN. COST (S 1000) Z% 54.948 63.036 72.2~3 92,::98 9'),339 10:; .. 424 118.643 133.0"'4 149.130 166.617 lSS .. b5S 5% 55.399 63.52S 72.S33 83.026 94. 134 106·389 119,725 134,294 150,552 168,249 1$7.'506 77. !!>5.751 63.912 73.309 83,'594 94.844 107.140 1:0,!-69 t35~~::;:O 151.655 1/_~Q,51\") 198."'43 9% '56.130 64,332 73.82$ 84 .. =1~ 95. '!·61 107.<>56 IZ1.484 t::?-6o,244 1 '52. :34'? 170.893 191).4<>7 E. ACCUMULATED PRESENT WORTH ANNI)AL COST (SIOOO) :x 35.800 3 9 .1"1 43.203 47.110 "51 • I I 1 5'3t~OS '5<>.39Q 63.666 6S.102 7~t61Q 77. :::!8 os'%. 36.108 39.717 43.'573 47.'531 51.'57'3 ~S.7()q '50;>.931 .!>4. ::::41 63.736 73. 30'> -:''':'.''::,1) 7~-! 36.~4<> Y'.<>7) 43.37: 47.3101 '51.9 39 '56,104 61).355 64.{'<>,) 1:;.9. ~'::'5 73.8'51 7:).-:": 9% 36.612 40.::51 44.1"'2 4:3. :::19 52.":' 56.'5:11 60.814 65. lSI 6'~, 77'2 74.4J'5 7".170 l-A 19<:>0 1""1 1992 1993 1994 19'?'5 199 .... 1997 19913 199';> 2000 F. ACCUM PRES WORTH OF ENEI':OY MILLS/KWH 2Y. 1.306 1.402 1.500 1.595 1.6S3 1.779 1.3b9 1.957 2,045 • 131 2.21b ~% 1.31 <:> 1.41 .... 1,515 I. b12 1.70b \.7"'8 1.889 l.'ns 2.0b7 -. 1~4 2.240 71-1,323 1,42'5 1 ,5~5 1 ~6Z2 1.717 1.1310 1.901 1.990 2.080 .163 2.2'54 9'Y,. 1.337 1.43'5 1.536 1.634 1.730 1,924 1.916 2,006 2.097 .IS6 2.273 f , , , , , I , , I , , f-, , 1>('1./[11 r:r.l' :T o;flJOV VILLAGES At THNAl[ 2·,\ -DIESEL -LOW LOAD 1971 1980 \981 1'482 1983 1994 l?a~ 1ge1, 1937 1988 1 9 '39 I. LOA[) DEMAND [)EI'IAND -1<'.101 7Q(l 913 836 860 883 906 0;130 9'53 'n6 1.000 1.023 ENERGY -HWH 2,9'23 '3yOO~ 3.160 3.316 "3,472 3,627 3.78'3 3.933 4.0<>4 4.-:'50 4.4(>'5 2. SOURCES -KW A. EX ISTING [)IESEL LOCATION OR UNIT 1 330 330 no 330 330 :310 330 3'30 :no 3'30 330 '2 4~O 4~O 4S0 4~0 4'50 4'50 45') 4~O 4'50 4 a:': 0 4':'0 3 206 206 206 206 206 206 :06 Z06 206 Z06 206 4 I~" ~., 1:-~ 125 12'5 12'5 12'5 lZ5 1~~ ~J 12S 12'5 12'5 '5 ISO l~O 1'50 150 1 '50. 150 150 1'50 I~'O 1'50 1 ':,l) 6 ~O(t ::::00 ~00 200 200 200 :00 200 :00 200 ~oo 7 :00 2 t)(I :f)Q 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 a <> 10 I I \2 B. ADO rT IONAL DIE~·EL UNIT I ZOO 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 :: ~()O 20() 200 200 ZOO 200 :?oo ::::00 ·:00 3 4 '5 (, c .. Exr."nNG HYDRO UNIT 1 ~ ('. A(10ITlO:-lAL HYDRO UNIT 1 .... .. TOTAL CAF'ACITY -J I.j 1.661 I. '~61 :!" 1)/;. t :; .. f)61 2,061 2,061 :.061 :" ('l61 ::!'"Obl ::,1)61 2,O61 LAR'~Esr I)NIT \')0 100 1 {)(l 14'0 10" 10<) 100 1<)<) 100 10.' 1 {)(' F IRI1 CAF'ACrTY 1, ~~ .. 1 1.7(,1 I • '>·,·1 1. "'61 1.961 1.961 1 • ~/> 1 1. ~1.."1 I ,"',,! 1. "'61 I • ·~"'1 ';IJG.F'l.fJ'i ')R (DEFICIT! -1(\.1 771 "'48 1 ~ 1::'5 I • !" 1 1.073 1 • 0'5'5 I. O~I 1.0')8 ':;':~5 <>61 ~':?'3 r1f,T HYt'RO CA"'AC!TY -I'IWH p<Er [I!E',EL CAPACITY -I'II-IH 13.674 1'5.4:6 17.178 17.178 17.178 17.178 17.179 17.17$ 17 f 178 17. 7:~ 17. 17:3 (11 E·:.fL C,ENEr-AT ION -MW'" ~ .. ':'):3 3~OO5 3. 160 3.11/;· "),47': 3,(·27 3.7'33 39 Q 38 4.1)94 4. 50 4,4 1):' ,:,I'F'I='LI r; OR «'EFlCrT) -MI-IH lr),7~1 1~.4:1 14.01',: IJ~$(~':: D.70·~ 1"3, ~S l 1'3 .. 3-''5 1:3. :::4.) 1:3. ()S4 1'~ -' -,' -':;' 1,2.77J 2-A 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 199o!> 1997 1998 1999 2000 1. LOAD DEMAND DEMAND -KW 1.047 1.100 1.1~3 1.206 1.260 1.313 1.366 1.419 1.472 1. '526 1. '579 ENERGY -MWH 4.'561 4.796 5.032 '5.267 5.503 5.738 5.973 6.209 6.444 6.680 6.916 2. SOI.lRCES -KW A. EXISTING DIESEL LOCATION OR UNIT 1 330 330 ")30 330 330 330 330 330 330 330 330 2 4!·0 4'50 450 450 450 450 4~O 450 450 450 450 3 206 206 20o!> 206 206 206 206 206 206 206 206 4 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 12'5 125 12*5 '3 150 lSI) 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 1S0 6 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 7 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 e 9 10 11 12 B. ADDITIONAL DIESEL UNIT I 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 2 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 3 4 '5 6 C. EXISTING HYDRO UNIT 1 2 D. ADDITIONAL HYDRO IJNIT 1 :2 :3 TOTAL CAPACITY -KW 2.061 2.061 2.061 2.061 2.061 2.061 2.061 2.06\ 2.061 2,061 ::,061 LARGEST UNIT 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 FIRM CAPACITY 1.961 1.961 1.961 1.961 1.961 1.961 1,961 1,961 1,961 1.961 1,961 SURPLUS OR (DEFICIT> -KW 914 861 SOI3 7'55 • 701 048 595 542 489 435 382 NET HYDRO CAPACITY -MWH NET OIESEL CAPACITY -MWH 17.178 17.178 17.178 17.178 17.178 17.173 17.178 17.179 17.179 17.179 17.178 DIESEL GENERATION -MWH 4.561 4.796 5.0:32 5.267 5.503 5.739 5.973 6,;209 6.444 6.680 6.9\0 '3l1RPLUS OR <DEF ICIT> -MWH 12.617 12,3B~ 12,146 11.911 1\.675 11.440 11.20'5 10.909 10.734 10.499 10,262 I I , , 1 • • • , , • 1. , , 2-A 1979 19S0 1991 1992 1993 19S4 19S~ 199b 19$7 19S9 1989 3. INVESTMENT COSTS (SI0I')O) 1979 DOLLARS A. EXISTING DIESEL 1. 44~ 1.44'5 1.44'5 1.44~ 1.44'5 1.44, 1.44~ 1.44~ 1.44'3 1.44~ 1.44'5 B. ADOITIONAL OIESEL UNIT 1 174 174 174 174 174 174 174 174 174 174 2 174 174 174 174 174 174 174 174 174 3 4 , 6 C. EX ISTING HYDRO O. ADDITIONAL HYDRO UNIT 1 2 3 E. TRANSMISSION PLANT ADDITIONS LIN IT 1 2 F. TAXES P~OD. PLANT INFLATE!) VALUES TOTAL ("1000) 1979 !)OLLARS 1.445 1.619 1.793 1.793 1,793 1.79" 1.7"'3 1.793 1.7"'13 1.7"'3 1.70 3 INFLATED VALUES 1.445 1.633 1. a::::6 1.936 1.836 1.8'3b 1.836 1.836 1.836 1.836 1 ~S36 4. FIXED COST 1$1000) INFLATED VALUES A. !)EST SERVICE 1. EX ISTINO '59 59 ~S . 59 59 '9 59 '39 59 59 59 2. ADDITIONS SUBTOTAL 2'X 9 Ib 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 Ib 5% 11 23 23 23 23 23 :3 23 23 23 77-15 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 97-19 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 B. INSURANCE 4 '5 7 7 9 <> 10 2-A 1979 1980 I?SI 1ge2 1?83 1<>84 198!; 1996 1997 1983 1989 TOTAL FIXED COST ('1000) 21. 62 71 SO 81 81 82 82 83 83 83 84 57.. 62 74 87 S8 8S 89 89 90 90 90 91 n: 62 78 95 96 96 97 97 98 9'3 98 99 9% 62 81 101 102 102 103 103 104 104 104 lOSS 5. PRODUCTION COST ('1000) INFLATED VALUES A. OPERATION AND MAINT t. DIESEL 13S 179 230 249 271 2?4 307 321 336 352 368 2. HYDRO e. FUEL AND LlIBE OIL 644 727 929 944 1.076 1.222 1.337 1.461 1,595 1.742 1.1399 TOTAL PRODUCTION COST ($1000) 779 906 1.0'59 1.193 1.347 1.'516 1.644 1.782 1.931 2.094 2,267 TOTAL ANNUAL COST ($1000 ) 27.. 941 977 1.139 1 t 274 1.429 1.599 1,726 1.965 2.014 2.177 2,351 ~"I. 841 990 1.146 1 .. 281 1.435 1.605 1.733 1.872 2,021 2,194 2.3'59 n. 941 984 1.154 1,289 1.443 1.6013 1.741 I.S80 2,029 2.192 2.366 9% 841 997 1.160 1,295 1.449 1.619 1.747 I.S86 2,03'5 2,198 2.372 ENERGY REQUIREMENTS -MWH 2,923 3.005 3.116 3.:227 3.339 3.449 3.560 3.671 3.782 3.893 4.00'5 HILLS/KYH 2~ 288 325 366 395 428 463 48'5 50a 533 559 587 '57-2SS 326 368 397 430 465 487 510 534 561 589 7X 288 327 370 399 432 468 489 512 536 563 '591 9% ~8S 328 372 401 434 469 491 '514 539 '565 '592 C. PRESENT I.JORTH ANNUAL COST ($1000) 2% 841 <>13 9<>5 1.040 1.099 1.139 10150 1.161 1.172 1.184 1.195 57-841 916 \.001 1.046 1.095 1.144 1.1'55 1.166 1.176 1.198 1.199 7~ 341 Q20 1.00a 1.052 1.101 10150 1.160 1.171 1. 131 1.192 1.203 9% 841 922 1.013 1.0'57 1.105 1.1'54 1.164 1.175 1.184 1.196 1.2Q6 O. ACCLIMLIL. ANN. COST (SI000) 27-841 1.818 2.9'57 4.231 '5.659 7,257 8.983 10.848 12,962 15.039 17.390 5Y. 941 1.821 2.967 4.:248 S.683 7,289 9.021 10.993 12.914 1'5.09$ 17.4'56 7Y. 841 1.82'5 2.979 4.268 5.711 7,3~4 9.065 10,945 1:2.974 15.166 17.'532 97-841 1,828 2,Q8S 4.283 '5.732 7,3'51 9.098 10.984 13.019 15.217 17,'589 E. ACCUMULATED PRESENT YORTH ANNLIAL COST ('1000) 2Y. 841 1.754 2.749 3.789 4,818 6.017 7.167 8.328 ~,~oo 10.684 11,97<> 5% 841 1.757 2.758 3.904 4.899 6.043 7.198 8.364 9,~40 10.728 tl.~::::7 7% 9'41 1.761 2.769 3,821 4,~22 6.072 7 .. 232 9.403 9.,!;84 10.776 11.97<> 9:<: 841 1.71>3 2,776 3.833 4.939 6.09:2 7.2'56 El. 431 9,615 10.811 12,017 " , , , , , , . . , , . , II f I , I , II , .. , , , , 2-A 1979 1980 1931 1982 1983 19'3'1 198'5 1996 1937 1908 19,,9 F. ACCUM PRES WORTH OF ENERGV MILLS/KWH 27-299 592 912 t .234 1.'561 1.891 2,214 2.'530 2.840 3.144 3.442 '57. 298 '593 914 1.239 1.'561;> 1.898 2.223 2.'541 2.8'52 3.1'57 3.456 77-2aa '594 917 1.243 1.573 1.907 2.233 2.552 2.964 3.170 '3.470 97-2a8 595 920 1,241 1.579 1.912 2.239 2,~59 2,972 3.179 '3.480 2-A 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 199'5 1996 1997 1993 1999 2000 3. INVESTMENT COSTS (SI000) 1979 DOLLARS A. EXISTING DIESEL 1.445 1.445 1.445 1.44'5 t.445 1.445 1.445 1.44'5 1.445 1.44'5 1.44'5 B. ADDITIONAL DIESEL UNIT 1 174 174 174 174 174 174 174 174 174 174 174 :2 174 174 174 174 174 174 174 174 174 174 174 3 4 '5 6 C. EXISTING HYDRO D. ADDITIONAL HYDRO UNIT 1 :2 3 E. TRANSMISSION PLANT ADO IT IONS UNIT 1 2 F. TAXES PROD. PLANT INFLATED VALUES TOTAL (SI000) 1979 DOLLARS 1.793 1.793 1.793 1.793 1.793 1.793 1.793 1.793 1.793 1.793 1.7"'3 INFLATED VALUES 1.936 1.936 1.$36 1.936 1.836 1.936 1,836 1,936 1,336 1,836 1.836 4. FIXED COST (111000) INFLATED VALUES A. DEBT SERVICE 1. EXISTING 58 '58 'Sa 59 '58 sa S9 59 59 59 '59 2. ADDITIONS SUBTOTAL 27-16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 57-23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 7% 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 9Y. 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 B. INSURANCE 10 11 11 12 12 12 13 13 14 1'5 1'5 \I: • f • If 11 If .. , 111 " , , . I , I • 2-A 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 199'5 1990. 1997 1998 1999 2000 TOTAL FIXED COST ($1000) 27-84 8'5 8'5 86 86 So. 87 87 SS 89 89 '5% 91 92 92 93 93 93 94 94 9'5 96 96 7Y. 99 100 100 101 101 101 102 102 103 104 104 9% 10'5 106 lOb 107 107 107 108 108 109 110 110 '5. PRODUCTION COST, ( $10(0) INFLATED VALUES A. OPERATION AND I'IAINT I. DIESEL 38'5 404 424 44'5 468 489 '513 '538 565 '593 622 2. HYDRO B. FUEL AND LUBE OIL 2.068 2)294 2,533 2,804 3,093 3.407 3,747 4.119 4,51S 4.950 '5.418 TOTAL PRODUCTION COST ( $10(0) 2,4'53 2,699 2,962 3,249 3,'561 3,896 4,260 4,657 5.083 5.543 6.040 TOTAL ANNUAL COST ('111000) 2~ 2t~37 2.,793 3.047 3.33'5 3.647 3.982 4,347 ' 4.744 '5.171 5.,632 6.,12C;> 5Y. 2.544 2.790 3.054 3.342 3.6'54 3.989 4.,354 4.751 '5,178 '5.639 6.136- 77. 2.552 2.798 3,062 3.3'50 3,662 3,997 4.362 4.7'59 5,186 5.647 6.144 9Y. 2.5'58 2.804 3.068 3.356 3.668 4.003 4.369 4.765 5.192 5.6'53 6. 1 SO ENERGY REQUIREMENTS -I'IWH 4.11'5 4.30'5 4.496 4.686 4.877 5,00.7 '5,257 '5.448 5.638 5.829 6.019 M!LLS/I(WH ~y. 617 646 678 712 748 786 '327 871 917 966 1.01$ 5% 618 648 679 713 749 787 828 872 918 '''67 1.01'" 77-620 650 681 715 7'51 789 830 874 920 ".'>9 1.021 97-622 651 682 716 752 790 S':'11 87'5 q:l 970 1.0.:'2 C. PRESENT WORTH ANNUAL COST ('£1000) 27-1,20'5 1.,236 1,264 1 t 293 1.322 1.349 1.376 1,404 1.430 1.4'55 1.480 SY. 1.209 1.,239 1, ~67 1.296 1.324 1 • 351 1.378 1.406 1.432 1,4'57 I. 'IS::? 77-1,212 1 .. 242 1.271 1, ::::9~ 1. ~::?7 1.3'54 1.391 1.40:3 1,434 1.45'" 1.484 "'r. 1. Z15 1.24'5 1. :::73 1,302 1.3:9 1,356 1.383 1.410 1.43b 1.461 1.4:35 O. ACCUMlIL. ANN. COST ($1000) 2r. 19.927 22.710 25.7'57 29,t)9::? 32.739 36.721 41.066 45.812 50.983 56.615 62.744 5Y. 20,000 22,790 2'5.844 29.186 3:2.840 30,829 41.1S3 45,934 5101 12 56,751 62.997 7r. 20.094 22.882 2~,944 ~9,2~4 32.9~6 36.953 41.315 46.074 51,260 56.<>07 63.0'51 97-20.147 22.951 26.019 29.375 33.043 37.046 41,414 46.179 51,371 57.024 63.174 E. ACCUMULATED PRESENT \.IORTH ANNUAL COST !'JI(00) 2X 13,084 14,::;l::?G 15,584 16.8n IS. 1"'9 19.'548 20,~:-4 ~2,,3::::a 'Z3,1~9 ~5.Z13 ::?6.6"'3 57-13.136 14.375 1'5.642 16.938 18.::::b2 19.613 20.991 :=!2,397 23.S29 25.28b ::::6.768 7% 13.1"'1 14.433 15.704 17.003 18.330 19.684 21.1.165 22,473 23.907 25.366 ~6,8~O 97-13.232 14,477 15,,7'50 17.052 18.381 19.737 21. 120 22.530 23.966 ::5,4:7 :6.Q 12 2-A 1990 1991 1992 199'3 1994 199'5 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 F. ACCUM PRES WORTH OF ENERGY MILLS/KWH 2"-3.7315 4.022 4.303 4.579 4,850 5.116 5,378 5.636 '5.890 6.140 6.386 S~ 3.750 4.039 4~320 4.597 4.868 S. 13~ 5.397 5.655 5,909 b,159 6.40"5 7'l. 3.765 4.054 4.337 4.614 4.886 '5.153 'S.416 5.675 5.929 6.179 6.426 9X 3.776 4.065 4.348 4.626 4,899 '5.167 5,430 '!h689 5,944 6.195 1,:.,442 , I If , • I f .. , " " I I • f • " , " I '" . I " PClIJER (,O"=.T '3TI.lDV INTERTIED SYSTEM -DIESEL -LOW LOAD ALTER~lJ\TIVE J-A 197" 19~0 1981 1982 1';1133 1984 1985 1980 1987 1938 1999 1. LOAD DEMANO DEMAN!) -KIJ "3. lea ~,479 -5,.77(} 0.060 6.351 6.642 6,,9'32 7.223 7,"313 7.S04 9JO~~ ENERGY -I'1I./H :!2.740 24, ;2/:.1 2~,S'27 27.393 2$,958 30,52'5 3:!.090 33,6'56 "~t221 36.78:3 3:3.3"34 2. SC1l!RCE'S -r~W A. EXISTING DIESEL LOCATION OR lINIT 1 3.400 8.400 8.400 8.400 8.400 :;:.400 8.400 3 .. 400 $.400 St400 S,40(l 2 1,661 1,661 1.661 1.6/>1 1.661 1. c.bl 1. (;,61 1.661 1,661 1.6&1 1.6(;,1 :) 4 "3 6 7 '3 <;> 10 1 1 I:! 11. ADDITIONAL DIESEL '-'NIT 1 2,300 2.300 2,300 2,,300 2,300 2,300 2,300 2,')00 2.300 :'1 '3(u) :! 200 200 :::00 zoo 200 ~oo ::00 20., :O() 3 " '5 6 C. ExrST INO HYDRO l1NIT I ::: D. ADO I TI (INAL HYDRO ','NIT 1 :: :l TOTAL CAPACITY -,'1./ 10.1)':'1 1~. 36 t 1:::.'561 1:.5,l,,1 1::.'561 1:.~61 1:.5/;-1 12,561 l'::~ ':.61 1~.5,';.1 t:=.St-.t LAR';.E3T I.lNIT 3.761 3.761 -3 7 761 '3,761 3.761 3.761 3·761 3.71,1 3.761 .).761 3,761 F"tRM CAPACITY 6.3('0 8 .. 61)r) 8. :30t) :3. :31)0 $.800 $,800 S,SQO :3,800 :)., 8(\1) ;::,,80<) ;~ ~ :300 ::·IJRPLU·; OR (DEFr I: I T) -KIJ 1. II:::: 3" 1~1 3:. O'?t) 2,74,) ::::. 44'~ -, 1 ~.:::: 1.81.>8 1,577 1· '::-'S7 ·~'i.'-.. 7(1C:; NF:T HYORO CAPACITY -MWH r;ET DIE"·EL I~Ar-'ACITY -r'!\.JH 55,18B 1'5,3-J6 77. f)8:~ 77,0':>:3 77,08:3 77.1):="3 77,t):?:::t 77.0S:, 77 .I):J:~ 77, OS::; 77.0:;-'3 !HE'SEL I~ENERAT ION -NWH Z~t140 24, ;:.~ I :!5. :327 :1.3'::»3 2$.':)'58 30,,5::!5 8:,O,?t) ~~3~l;,~6 35,1::1 36,1:::::3 ;:8 .. :{54 ".I:RPLU'3 I)R (DEFICIT ) -MWH J;? 44:3 :51,015 51, ~.~·1 4':),6'~5 48.t 3') 46. '5·~·3 44,<><>'3 43" 43'~ 41. S·C,7 4('l, ~('l('\ 3:3~ i::4 3-A 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 1. LOAD DEMAND DEMAND -1<'14 8.386 8.S30 9,274 9.719 10.1-!>3 10.607 11.0'51 11.49'3 11.940 12.384 12.928 ENER"V -MWH 39.920 42.039 44.159 46.278 48.397 50.516 '52.63-!> ~4t755 56.874 58.994 -!>l.t 13 2. SOURCES -KW A. EX {STING DIESEL LOCATION OR UNIT 1 8.400 8.400 8.400 8.400 8.400 8.400 8.400 8.400 8.400 8.400 8.400 2 1.661 1.661 1.661 1.661 1.661 1.661 1.661 1. b61 1.661 1.661 1.661 3 4 5 6 7 a $' 10 11 12 B. ADDITIONAL DIESEL ·UNIT 1 2.300 2 .. 3:00 2.300 2.300 2.300 2.300 2.300 2.300 2.300 2.300 2.300 2 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 '3 2.100 2.100 2.100 2.100 2.100 2,100 2.100 2.100 2.100 2.100 2,100 4 2.100 2.100 2.100 2.100 2,100 21100 5 2, tOO 2.100 b C. EXISTtNG HVDRO UNIT 1 . 2 O. ADDITIONAL HVDRO ,'NIT 1 :2 3 TOTAL CAPACITY -KW 14.661 14.661 14.661 14.661 14.661 16.761 16.761 16.761 16.761 18.861 19.961 LARGEST 'JNIT 3.761 3.761 3.761 3.761 3.761 3.761 3.761 3.761 3.761 3.761 3.761 FIRM CAPACITV 10.900 10.900 10,900 10.900 10.900 13.000 13.000 13.000 13.000 15.100 15.100 Sl'RPLUS OR (DEFICIT) -KW 2.514 2.070 1,626 1.181· 737 2,393 1.949 1.505 1.060 2.716 ~1272 NET HVDRO CAPACITY -MWH NET DIESEL CAPACITY -MWH 95.494 95.484 "''5.494 "''5.494 95.484 113,990 113. SSO 113.S90 113.SS0 132,276 1:32.276 DIESEL GENERATION -MWH 39.920 42.039 44.159 46.'Z7S 48.3<>7 50.516 52.636 54.755 56.874 58,994 61.113 SURPLUS OR (DEFICIT) -MWH 55.564 53.445 51.325 49,2l'lb 47.087 63.3b4 61 t 244 59.,125-57.006 73t~82 71.163 ., , J , . , , .. " I , " p, .. . " .. . , r , !f • , . I , 3-A 1979 1980 1981 1982 1993 1984 1985 1986 1987 1989 1999 3. INVESTMENT COSTS ('HOOO) 1979 DOLLARS A. EX ISTING DIESEL 3.990 3.990 3.990 3.990 3,,990 3.990 3.990 3.990 3.990 3.990 3.990 B. ADDITIONAL DIESEL UNIT 2.001 2.001 2.001 2.001 2.001 2.001 2.001 2.001 2.001 2.001 2 174 174 174 174 174 174 174 174 174 3 4 5 6 C. EX ISTING HYDRO D. ADDITIONAL HYDRO '.'NIT 1 2 3 E. TRANSN1SSION PLANT ADDn IONS UNIT 1 3,100 3.100 3.100 3.100 3.100 3.100 3.100 3.100 3,100 :2 F. TAXES PROD. PLANT INFLATEO VALUES 25 46 '50 54 59 63 66 68 71 74 77 TOTAL ('51000) 1'">79 DOLLARS 3.9<>0 5.991 9.26'5 9.26'5 9.265 9.265 9.265 9,2b~ 9,26'5 9~~65 ~,:::65 INFLATED VALUES 3.990 6.151 9.970 9,Q70 9.970 9,970 9.970 <>,970 9,970 9.970 9,-no 4. FIXED COST <'510(0) INFLATED VALUES A. DEBT SERVICE 1. EXISTING Z41 ~41 241 241 241 241 :41 241 241 241 241 2. ADDITIONS SUBTOTAL 2~ Sf> 23<> 23~ 239 239 239 239 239 239 ::!3() S% 132 365 365 365 365 365 365 36'5 365 365 7% 11>7 462 462 462 462 462 462 462 462 46:::: 9% ~04 565 565 565 56S 565 565 565 565 565 9. IN$'JRANCE I: 20 3'5 38 41 44 46 48 49 51 53 TOTAL FIXED COST (~1000) 2% '5% 7% 9% 5. PRODUCTION COST (~1000) INFLATED VALUES A. OPERATION AND MAINT 1. DIESEL 2. HYDRO B. FUEL AND LLIBE OIL TOTAL PRODLICTION COST (~1000) TOTAL ANNUAL COST (~1000) 2'l. 5% 7% 91. ENERGY REOUIREMENTS -MWH MILLS/KWH 2Y. 5% 7Y. 9% C. PRESENT WORTH ANNLIAL COST (UOOO) 5% 7% 9% D. ACCUMUL. ANN. COST (~1000) 2% 51. 7% 91. E. ACCLIMULATED PRESENT WORTH ANNUAL COST ('1000) '51. 7% 91. , , 1979 278 279 278 279 583 2.071 2.654 2.932 2,932 2.932 2.932 22.740 . 129 129 129 129 2,932 2.932 2.932 2.932 2.932 2.932 2.932 2.932 2,Q3::! 2,932 2.9 32 1980 393 439 474 S11 662 2.430 3.092 3.485 3,531 3.'566 3.603 24.261 144 146 147 149 3,:~7 3.300 3.333 3.367 6.417 6.463 6.499 6.535 6.199 6.232 6.26'5 6.299 , . 1981 '56'5 691 788 891 192 2.353 3.110 3.236 3.333 3.436 25.827 120 12'3 129 133 2.716 2,92b 2.911 3.001 9.527 9.699 9.831 9.971 9.90'5 9.059 9.176 9.300 1982 572 698 79'5 898 20S 2.74'5 2.9'53 3.525 3.651 3.748 3.851 27.393 1:9 133 137 141 2,877 2.980 3.0'39 3.144 13.052 13.3'50 13.'579 13.922 11,792 12.039 12'f23~ 12.444 1983 S80 706 803 906 224 3.194 3.418 3.999 4.124 4 • .221 4.324 28.958 138 142 146 14';> 3.0'50 3.146 3,220 3.299 17.050 17.474 17.800 19.146 14.93: 15.194 15.4'3'5 15.743 .. . 1994 587 713 810 913 242 3.703 ~t945 4.532 4.658 4.755 4.8'59 30.525 148 153 156 159 3.231 3.321 3.390 3.464 21, ~92 22.132 22.5'55 23.004 18.063 19.505 19.84'5 19.207 1985 592 718 815 919 4,126 4.378 4.970 5.096 5.193 5.296 32.090 155 159 162 16'5 3.312 3.396 3.460 3 .. ~29 26.552 27.229 27.749 29.300 21.375 21.901 2Z,305 2:,736 " , 1986 ~96 722 819 922 262 4.596 4.948 '5.444 5.'570 5.667 '3.770 33.656 162 16'5 168 171 3.390 3.469 3.529 3.593 31.996 32.799 33.415 34.070 24.76'5 25.370 25.934 26.329 f .. 1987 600 726 823 926 273 5.087 '5.360 '5.960 6.086 6.183 6,286 35.221 169 173 176 179 3.469 3.542 3.'599 3.65'" 37.956 39.884 39.598 40.3'56 ':9,234 28.912 29.433 29,QSS , , 1999 605 731 828 931 284 5.634 5.919 6.5:?3 6.64" 6.746 6.949 36.799 177 181 193 186 3.'548 3.617 3.669 3,725 44.479 4'5.533 46.344 47.205 31.782 3:.5:9 33.102 33.713 19'3'~ 610 736 833 936 6,.226 6.521 7. 131 7.~51 7,354 7.457 39.3'54 186 189 192 1"4 3,6:~ 3.699 3.738 3.7"1 51.610 52.790 '53.699 54.61,2 3'5.407 36.219 36.8-l0 37.504 , , 3-A , . 3-A 1"'7'" 1 ?~(. 11");~ 1 1"'/:~:: t -:.:::) 1';'~'4 t ?r{'5 1 <';;'>1;) I '~87 t ·:j.~?:3 t'1:'71'-' F. ACCt.'M PRES WORTH e'F ENERC.,( MILL'S/trI.lH 2Y. 129 :!64 3'/.,.9 474 ~79 68'3 783 as? 9S7 1.0:31 1.1 7 8 ~y. IZ? 26'5 314 433 '5 9 1 700 30/> 90';-1.010 I. lOS 1 ~ ~(l4 7"1. 129 266 37'" 4"'1 602 713 :321 ?~~ t 10~:3 1.1::8 t ~ ::-:-6 9Y. 1:!:'" :-6.8 384 499 613 721.> :?36 942 1.046-1.147 1 .. 246· 3-A 1 '~"<) 1".,1 l'?*:l~ 1 "'''3 1"''''4 1"'>'4':, 1 ""~I, 1.,':>7 19<>9 1 ",~" :;000 3. I~NESTMENT COSTS ('1:1000) 1~7~ r'OLLAR':> A. EXISTING DH"~EL 3.990 3.990 3.9"0 3.9';>0 :'3.9-:>0 3.""'0 3.9';>0 3.9"0 3.990 3,I!)9'O 3.9":'0 S. ADDITIONAL DIE":·EL UNIT 1 ~.OOl 2d)<) 1 2,')01 2.001 2, f)(tl 2,Of)1 2.001 2.001 2,Qf)1 2.001 2,001 2 174 174 174 174 174 174 174 174 174 174 174 3 1.'327 1 ,~:27 1.827 I.B27 1. 3~7 1.3:7 1, :327 1.827 1,327 1 f 8:!7 1,8::7 4 1.827 t .,:3~7 1.827 1.827 1.327 1, :327 '5 1,827 1,827 0 C. EXISTING HYDRO D. ADDITIONAL HYDRO UNIT I ~ E. TRANSMISSION PLANT ADDITIONS UNIT 1 ~.1(1) 3.1')0 3tlOO '3.100 '3, If)O 3.100 3.100 3.100 3,100 3.10<' '3.100 ~ ~ F. TAXES PROD. PLANT INFLATED VALUE'; eo 3'3 I'"''"' 1~8 1]3 133 144 1':.5 :01 ::t)·:) ~13 TOTAL (' 1')')0) 1~;'0 01JLLARS 11 ~,)9~ 11 ~ 0'7i: 11., O,:)~ 11 ,O·~: 11. t)'"')2 12, '.'1'> L~f'~l<!) l~t':;>l"? 1~. ':')1 0 ·14.741;, 14.741, INFLATED VALUES \3, 3,~.7 13. '31)7 13,367 1'3.367 1'3" '1~7 17,5')() 17*500 l'.5f:"O 17 .. 5(lO 2:2.335 ..... -, ........ c:-........ ,-.;.,.;._. 4. Ft XED COST ( '10<)<') INFLATED VALUE', A. ['lEST $ERVI'~E 1-nISTlN(' :41 ;:'41 :41 :41 :41 ;:41 -;::41 :41 :41 ;Coli :41 ~ A [tD IT ! ,)NS SUBTOTAL :Y.. ::;l7'5 37'5 37'5 '?-7'5 ::;l7'5 '540 '540 54" 540 T"n 733 5'%. ,)7:: 57: ~-.~ ~" -'5"'~ "5,7~ 7?-::4 8:4 6:':4 ~~·~4 1 • I I'" 1 • I I'" 7" '. 7::4 7::4 :-:: '\ -:':~ 7:4 1 "~';) 1 ,043 1 ,t~43 I, "4'3 1.416 1.41", "'% 8gl.~ 8:~~\ :3~~·~.., S:'3·~ ::::~6 \. ::77 1 ~ :'77 1,277 1, :77 1,735 1, ,',,:. B. I>"".'RAN':E 7'5 73 '31 ' 84 :37 lI'~ 1:4 1 ~~ _0 IJ4 177 1'34 , I , \\I If • " .. . , , .. 11ft , t I • f., • I 3-A 1990 \991 1992 199'3 1994 1995 1996 1997 1999 1999 ;1000 TOTAL FIXED COST (UOOO) 2% 771 777 920 929 936 1,039 1,049 1.064 1, 116 1,360 1,376 !iY.. 969 974 1 • .,17 1,025 1,033 1.322 1,333 1,348 1,400 1.746 1.762 n; 1.120 1,126 1,169 1.177 t,la~ 1.541 1.552 1.567 1.619 2.043 2.059 n 1.282 1.289 1.331 1.339 1.347 1.77'3 1.796 l.eOI 1.853 2.362 2.37S 5. PRODUCTION COST ( .. 10001 INFLATED VALUES A. OPERATION AND MAtNT 1. DIESEL 307 31';1 412 429 446 464 482 '302 '322 '342 564 2. HYDRO B. FUEL AND LUBE OIL 6.969 7.666 9.'336 9,492 10,511 11.629 12.947 14,166 15,597 17.149 18.930 TOTAL PRODUCTION COST ("10(0) 7.175 7.985 9.949 9.911 10.957 12.093 13.329 14.669 160119 17.690 19.394 TOTAL ANNUAL COST (SI000) 27. 7.946 8,762 9.769 10.739 11.793 13.131 14,379 1'3.732 17.235 19.050 2t),770 57. 9.143 e.<;),~9 9.965 10.936 11.99" 13.415 14,662 16,016 17.519 19.436 21.15t. n 8 .. 295 9.111 10,117 11 ,098 12.142 13.634 14.891 16.23'3 17.7'38 19.733 21,4'5'3 97. 8.457 9,273 10.279 11.25., 12.304 13.968 1'5.11'3 16.469 17.972 20,052 21,772 ENERGY REQUIREMENTS -MWH 39.920 42.039 44.159 46.278 48.397 '50.'316 '52.636 54,755 56.974 58.994 61,113 MILLS/KWH 21-199 20S 2:?1 232 244 260 273 287 303 323 340 '51-204' 213 ~26 236 248 266 279 293 303 'J2? '346 77. 209 217 2:?? 240 ::tt 270 283 :97 312 :334 3'51 9'X. 212 Z21 233 243 :'54 275 287 301 316 340 3'56 C. PRESENT WORTH ANNUAL COST ($1000) 2~ 3.77'5 3.$90 4.0'53 4.16'5 4,274 4,449 4,!'552 4,b~~ 4,766 4,923 5,016 5% 3.869 3.978 4.1:315 4.241 4,346 4,S44 4,642 4.739 4.844 ~,O2:3 '5.10" 7Y. 3.941 4,04'5· 4.198 4.300 4.401 4.618 4.711 4.903 4,90'5 5.099 '5. lSI 9% 4.016 4.1 17 4.~65 4.363 4.460 4.698 4.73'5 4.913 4.969 5,IS2 S.~5S D, ACC\.IMUL. ANN. COST ($1000 ) 2X 59.556 68.318 78.096 S8.82'5 100.618 113,749 128 .. 127 143.859 161.094 180.144 200."14 5% 60.933 69.892 79.857 90.793 102.783 116.1 Q e 130.960 146.876 164.395 193.1331 204.997 7'l. 61.993 71.104 81, :21 92.309 104.4'51 119.085 132.966 149.201 166.939 196.672 209 .. 12'5 97-63.119 72.39~ 82.671 93,'9: 1 106.225 1:0.09:) 13'5.208 151,677 169.649 199.701 211.473 E. ACCUMULATED PRESENT WORTH ANNUAL COST ( 'SIOOO) Z'l. 39.182 43.072 47.125 51 .. 290 '55. '364 60.012 64.564 69.219 73."85 79.908 6'3,924 5Y. 40.087 44.065 48.~OO 52.441 '56.787 61.331 65,973 70.712 7'3.'556 80.'579 85.689 n. 40.791 44,826 49.0Z4 '53.324 57.7::::5 62.343 67.0'54 71.857 76.762 81.961 97.042 97-41.522 45.639 49.904 54.267 '58.727 63.425 68.210 73.083 78.0:5::1 83.234 8S.492 3-A 1990 1991 1992 199'3 1994 19Q5 1996 1997 1993 1999 2000 F. ACCUM PRES WORTH OF ENERGV MILLS/KWH 2% 1.273 1,365 1.457 I, '547 1.63'5 1,723 1.809 1.894 1.978 2,061 2,143 57. 1.301 1. '396 1.490 I, '582 1,672 1.762 I.S~O 1.937 2.022 2,10? 2.1 91 7Y. 1.325 1.421 1.516 1.609 1.700 1.791 1.881 1,969 2,OSS 2.141 ::? .. 2:?6 9Y. 1.347 1.44'5 1, :;42 1.636 1.729 1.821 1 •. 912 2.001 2.088 2,176 2,262 .. . '" . r • , . • • , , III , II , , , , , It· I , , , , , , I • P01,.!ER CO':;T '::TUOY INTERTIEP SYSTEM HYDRO LOW LOAD AL TERlIATlVE 4-,'\ 1"'79 1 9 80 1931 1ge2 19:33 1"':34 1)1:3~ 1986 1987 t?S!3 1 '>:,,<> 1 • LelAO Oe:MAr~o OEMAr;o -n" ~.laf:l :;,47? ~.770 6.0(,0 6.351 6.642 6.932 7.22'3 7.~13 7.:304 3.09'5 ENERGY -MWH 22.740 :?4.261 Z-S~ :327 27 .. 31!)3 2:3.?59 31).52'5 32.090 3,3.6'5/> 35.2Z1 36.738 33,3~4 2. '3(!URCES -trY A. EXISTING OIESEL lOCAT I(lN QR UNIT 1 8,4(')0 :3.400 8,41)1) 3,4(H) 3,40(\ S,4I),) $.400 $.400 3.400 $.400 3.400 2 1.1,1,1 1.661 1.661 1.661 1.6/,1 1 t 661 1.661 1.661 1 .1,61 I .61, 1 1.661 :3 4 '!\ 6 7 -- :3 Q 10 11 12 B. ACtO 1 TI ONAL OIESEl LIN IT 1 2,:)00 2.300 2.3')0 2t3()() 2,300 ~l' :300 2,300 :,300 2,300 :2,:300 2 200 ::00 ZOO ~f)O 200 200 200 200 200 ';1 4 '5 b C. EX ISTING HYOf\') UNIT 1 2 O. ADC'l T rONAL HYDRO UNIT 1 .,. 30,.0(1) 30·0(10 30.00t) 30. t)O(\ :: '3 TOTAL CAPACITY -KW 10.061 12.31>1 12, -:;.~ 1 t:,5t,,1 12.'561 lZ$5~1 1:,561 4~,S61 4;:. '5,~1 42,5bl 4:,5(,,1 LARC·EST ','N! T ~~7/')1 3.7(;,1 3.7/,1 3,.761 3.761 '?7'61 3.761 ')1. ~,61 31.6(;,1 31. t,,~1 '31 ,t<~61 FIRM '::>'.P-'lCITY 6.300 8,000 :3 ~ 8(H) t3,. SOl) S.8f )1) $.8(,H, S~ :~('O 10, ,)()O 10. "<)(1 1(\,,900 to. '::)fH) ',:URPlU?, I)R ([IEF letT) -1<14 1.1 12 '3. 121 J~ f) '::c) -:. 7 ~(~ ~.44·;j 2,1'5:3 1,$(.:;: 3 .. ,,77 3,387 3.0''''6 :,~0':1 NET HV[·RO .... APACITY -I1WY 1 ~6. ;300 1':.~. :;'0l) 1 :1,. :,00 126. ::::00 ~:ET [1!E';;EL CAPt\CITy -MWH ':5~t88 7C:;~ 3?1.." 77.08:3 7 7 , (1:3":3 77.0;,:3 ;7.08:3 77, ()88 ?5 • ..1;34 "'-''5, 4;~;4 '~'5. 4:34 ':)';,4::;:ol r.'IE".El ,:",r,ERA T I ')N -MWH ':?2.741) ::4 ~ ::?h 1 :::5, :~27 17, ,)'::'?-::3" QS:3 30tS:C:: 3~, o·-:)t) ';URPt-I)S I)R ( DEFICIT! -M\.i;~ 32.H1 51,1)7'5 51. :c·1 4':), (.95 48. 13E) 46,!o6"3 441";)?8 <?5~ 4:34 ~5, 4:::t4 -:")5~ol84 .~'5. 4:34 4-A 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1999 1999 2000 1 • LOAD DEMAND DEMAND -KW 9.396 9.930 9.274 9.719 10.163 10.607 11.0'51 11.495 11,940 12,394 12.828 ENERGY -MWH 39,920 42.039 44.1'59 46,278 48.397 '50.516 ~2.636 ~4.755 56.974 59.994 61.113 2. SOLIRCES -KW A. EXISTING DIESEL LOCATION OR lINIT 1 9.400 9.400 8,400 9.400 9.400 9.400 9.400 8.400 8.400 8.400 8,400 2 1.661 1.661 1.661 1.661 1.661 1.661 1.661 1.661 1.661 1.661 1.661 '3 4 5 6 7 $ 9 10 11 12 9r ADDITIONAL DIE'SEL UNIT 1 2.300 2.300 2,300 2.300 2,300 2.300 2.300 2.300 2.300 2.300 2.300 2 ZOO 200 200 200 200 2QO 200 200 200 200 200 3 2.100 2.100 2.100 2.100 2.100 2.100 4 2.100 5 b C. EX ISTINO HYDRO LINIT 1 2 D. ADDITIONAL HYDRO tiN IT 1 30.000 30.000 30.000 30.000 30.000 30,000 30·000 30.000 30.000 30.000 30.000 ::: '3 TOTAL CAPACITY .-KW 4~,~61 42.;561 42.5bl 4Z.Sbl 42.561 44.661 44,661 44.661 44,661 44.661 46.761 LARGEST UNIT 31.661 31.1>61 31.661 31.661 31.661 31. bOl 31·661 31.661 31.661 31.661 31,661 FIRM CAPACITY 10.9l10 10.9 00 10.900 10.900 10.900 13.000 13.000 13.000 13.000 13.000 IS.!OO StIRPLLr, OR (DEFICIT ) -KW 2.514 2.070 1.626 IdSI 737 2.393 1.949 I.SOS 1.060 616 2,272 NET HYDRO CAPACITY -MWH 126,$00 126.800 1:::6.800 126.$00 126,900 126.;900 126.900 126.800 126.900 126.900 126.900 '~ET OIESEL CAPACITY -MWH 95.484 9'!!. 4134 95.484 95.484 95.484 DIESEL GENERATION -MWH I 13.1l80 113,880 113.1390 ,113. S80 113.980 132,276 SlIRPLL'3 OR WEF IC I Tl -MWH 95.494 95.494 Q5.484 9!:".494 95.494 113.890 113.890 113.990 113.980 113.S90 13Z.276 , , If 'I . , .. , • I , , " , . , If , , , 4-A 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 19135 1991.> 1987 19sa 1999 3. INVESTMENT COSTS (SI000) 1979 DOLLAR'; A. EXISTING DIESEL 3.990 3.990 3.990 3.990 3.990 3.990 3.990 3.990 3.990 3.990 3.990 9. ADOITIONAL DIESEL UNIT 1 2.001 2.001 2.001 2.001 2.001 2.001 2.001 2.001 2.001 2.001 '2 174 174 174 174 174 174 174 174 174 3 4 5 I.> C. EXISTING HYDRO D. ADDITIONAL HVORO UNIT 1 99.1.>57 99.657 99.657 -;:>9,6~7 '2 3 E. TRANSMISSION PLANT ADDITIONS UNIT 1 3.100 3.100 3.100 3.tOO 3.100 3.100 3.100 3.100 3.100 2 F. TAXES PROD. PLANT INFLATEO VALUES 25 46 50 '54 '59 63 66 68 71 74 77 TOTAL (SI000) 1979 DOLLARS 3,990 '5.991 9.265 9.265 9,26,!5 9.265 9,26'5 10S .. 9~:: 108,92~ 108.9 22 10:3,922 INFLATED VALUES 3.990 6.151 9.970 9,'no 9,970 9."70 9.970 168.347 168.347 168.347 168.347 4. FIXED COST (SI000) INFLATEO VALUES A. OEBT SERVICE 1 • EXISTING 241 241 241 241 241 ~41 241 241 241 241 241 2. ADDITIONS "239 SUBTOTAL Z% S6 239 239 239 239 6.574 6.574 6.574 6.574 5'l. 132 365 36' 365 365 365 9,S'?S 9.S95 Q,3O~ 9l8Q~ 7% 167 462 462 462 462 462 12.693 12.693 12.6<>3 12.69 3 9'l. 204 56S ~6S S65 565 565 1'5.'552 IS.5S:? 15.5'52 15t~S2 B. INSURANCE 12 20 35 38 41 44 46 803 835 863 903 4-A 1979 1990 1981 1982 1983 1984 198:5 1986 1987 19 83 1989 TOTAL FIXED COST (SI000) 2% 278 393 :56:5 572 :580 587 592 7.686 7.72i 7,757 7.795 5Y. 278 439 691 698 706 713 718 11.007 11.042 11.078 11.116 n. 278 474 788 795 803 810 81'5 13.805 13.840 13.876 13.914 9Y. 278 511 891 898 906 913 918 16.664 16.699 16.735 16.773 :So PRODUCTION COST ("1000) INFLATED VALUES A. OPERATION AND MAINT 1 • DIESEL :583 662 192 208 224 242 2~2 262 273 234 29'5 2. HYDRO 362 393 428 46'5 B. FUEL AND LUeE OIL 2.071 2.430 2.353 2.74~ 3.194 3.703 4.126 TOTAL PRODUCTION COST ('fIOOO) 2.OS4 3.092 2.'545 2.953 3.418 3.945 4.378 624 666 712 760 TOTAL ANNUAL COST ( 'I;tOOO) 2X 2.932 3.485 3.110 3.525 3.998 41~32 4.970 8.310 8.387 8.40',> SySS~ 5% 2.932 3.531 3.,236 3.651 4.124 4.653 5.096 11.631 11.708 11.790 11.876 7Y. 2.932 3.560 3.333 3.748 4.221 4.755 5.193 14,429 14.506 14.538 14,674 9Y. 2.932 3.603 3.436 3.851 4~324 4.858 5.296 17,289 17.305 17.447 17.533 ENERGY REOUIREMENTS -MWH 22.740 24,261 25.827 27.393 28.958 30.525 32.090 33.656 35,221 36.788 38,:)54 MILLS/KWH Z%. 129 144 120 129 138 148 155 247 233 230 2:?3 5'l. 129 146 125 133 142 153 159 '346 332 320· 310 7Y. 129 147 129 137 146 156 162 429 41:: 397 383 9Y. 129 149 133 141 149 159 105 514 493 474 457 C. PRESENT WORTH ANNUAL COST (StOOO) 2Y. 2.932 3 .. 257 2 .. 716 2.677 3.050 3.231 3.312 5.175 4.881 4.607 4.349 SY. 2"Q~2 3.300 2.626 2.990 3.146 3.321 3.396 7.243 6.814 6.413 1.>.037 7Y. 2.932 3·333 2.911 3.05<:> 3.220 3.390 3.460 8·986 3.443 1,,935 /,460 9Y. 2.Q 32 :).367 3.001 3.144 3.299 3,464 3.529 10.766 10.107 9,490 8.913 D. ACCUMUL, ANN. COST ($1000) 2Y. 2,932 6.417 9,~27 13.0::"2 17,050 21.582 26,,~52 34.862 43.249 51.718 60.273 5Y. 2.932 6.463 9.699 13.350 17.474 22.132 27,2:!S 38.859 50.567 62.357 74.23'3 7Y. 2.932 6.498 9.831 13.579 17.800 22,,5~5 :7.748 42.177 56.683 71.271 S5.Q 4'5 9Y. 2.9 32 6.535 9.971 13.922 16,146 23.004 :8.300 45.5$8 62.Q 53 80.400 <'17.933 E. ACCllMlILATEO PRESENT IJORTH ANNUAL COST ("1000) 2Y. 2,932 6.189 8.905 11.792 14.9'32 18.063 :1.375 26.550 31.4'31 36.033 40.387 5Y.. 2.932 6.232 9.0~8 12.038 15.184 18,505 21.901 29,144 35.9'38 42,371 48,408 n 2 .. 932 6.~o!5 9·176 1~'i235 15.455 Hl.845 2= .. 305 31,Z~1 39.734 47.669 55,12<> 9Y. 2.932 6.299 9.300 12.444 15.743 19.207 ~2,73o 33.502 43.609 53,099 02.012 9: • , , , , , II , . , I • • " Ii , . , • II , , ,. f • , " . , 4-A 1979 1990 1981 19a~ 1983 1984 19!J5 198~ 1987 1988 1989 F. ACCUM PRES WORTH OF ENEROV MILLS/KWH 27-129 2~4 3~9 474 579 ~95 7SS 942 1.081 1.20~ 1.319 57-129 2~5 374 433 591 700 80~ 1.021 1.214 1.398 1,546 77. 129 26~ 379 491 ~02 713 S21 1.089 1.329 1 ,~44 1.739 9Y. 129 2~8 394 499 ~13 72~ 936 1.156 1.443 1 .701 1.933 4-A 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 199'5 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 3. INVESTMENT COSTS (UOOO) 1979 DOLLARS A. EXISTING DIESEL 3.990 3.990 3.990 3.990 3.990 3.990 3.990 3.990 3.990 3.990 3.990 B. ADIHTIONAL DIESEL UNIT 1 2.001 2.001 2.001 2.001 2,001 2.001 2.001 2.001 2.001 2.001 2.001 2 174 174 174 174 174 174 174 174 174 174 174 3 1.827 1.827 1.827 1.827 1,927 1.927 4 1.327 ~ 6 C. EXISTING HYDRO D. ADDITIONAL HYDRO UNIT 1 99.6~7 99.657 99.657 99.657 99.657 99.6'57 99.657 99.6'57 <>9.657 'l>9.657 9Q,,6~7 2 3 E. TRANSMISSION PLANT ADDITIONS UNIT 1 3.100 3.100 3.100 3.100 3.100 3.100 3.100 3.100 3.100 3.100 3.100 :2 F. TAXES PROD. PLANT INFLATED VALUES 80 83 123 128 133 138 144 155 201 209 219 TOTAL ("1000) 1979 DOLLARS 108.,922 108.922 10e,1. 922 10S,,92:! 109,922 110.749 110.749 110.749 110.749 110.749 112.57b INFLATED VALUES 168.347 168.347 168.347 165.347 168.347 172.480 172.430 172.480 172.480 172.480 177.50S 4. FIXED COST (.1000) INFLATED VALLIES A. DEBT SERVICE 1. EXISTING 241 241 241 241 241 241 :41 241 241 241 241 2. ADDITIONS SUBTOTAL 2X 6.~74 6.574 6.574 6.574. 6.574 6.739 6.739 6.739 6.739 6.739 6.940 57-9.89'5 9.89'!i 9.895 9,SQ~ 9.$95 10.147 10.147 10.147 10.147 10.147 10.454 7"1. 12.693 12.693 12.693 12.693 12.693 13.(112 13.012 13.012 13.012 13.012 13.400 91-15.552 15,5~·:2 15,552 1~,5~2 15.5'52 15.943 15.943 15.943 15.943 15.943 16.419 B. INSURANCE 939 977 1.011, 1.056 1.098 1.170 1.217 1.266 1.317 1.369 1.466 '" , * • • J , I , ¥ , " , , I , . , • 11 " .. 4-A 1990 1991 1992 1993 199 4 1995 1996 1997 1999 1999 2000 TOTAL FIXEO COST ('$1000) 2Y. 7.834 7.875 7.954 7.999 8.046 8.2aS 8.341 8.401 8.498 8.5~8 8.96'5 '5y. 11.155 11.196 11.27'5 11.320 11.367 11.696 11.749 11.809 11.906 11.966 12.':n9 7Y. 13.953 13.994 14.073 14.118 '14.16'5 14.561 14.614 14.674 14.771 14.831 1:;.325 9Y. 16.812 16.853 16.932 16.977 17.024 17.492 17.545 17.605 17.702 17.762 18.344 '5. PRODf)CT I ON COST (SI000) INFLATED VALUES A. OPERATION ANO MAINT I. DIESEL 307 319 412 429 446 464 482 502 :522 ~42 564 2. HYDRO S02 '551 601 655 713 774 837 909 980 1.0'56 1.139 B. FUEL ANO LUBE OIL TOTAL PRODUCTION COST ($1000) 809 970 1.013 1.084 1.159 1.238 1.319 1.410 1.502 1.598 1.703 TOTAL ANNUAL COST (SI000) 2Y. 8.643 8.745 8.967 9.083 9 .. 20!5 9~~26 9.660 9.811 10.000 10.156 10.*5':,8 57-11.964 12.066 12.288 12.404 12.:526 12.934 13.068 13.219 13.4013 13.'564 14.082 7Y. 14.762 14.864 15.086 15.202 15.324 15.799 15.933 16.084 16.273 160.429 17.028 9Y. 17.621 17.723 17.945 18.061 18.183 18.730 18.864 19.015 19.204 19.360 20.047 ENERGY REOUIREMENTS -MWH 39.920 42.039 44.159 46.278 48.397 50.516 52.636 54.755 56.874 58.99 4 61.113 MILLS/KWH 2Y. 217. 208 ~O'3 196 190 189 184 179 176 172 173 '5y. 300 287 278 269 2'59 25~ 248 241 :::!:)6 230 ::30 77-370 354 342 328 317 313 303 ZQ 4 286 278 27q 9Y. 441 4'"''' 406 390 :)76 :)71 3~8 347 338 3::?S 328 C .. PRESENT WORTH ANNUAL COST ( SlOOO) 2Y. 4.106 3.883 3.721 3.S23 3.336 3.227 3.058 2.903 2.765 2.62'5 2.~5Z 57. '5.684 ~.357 5.099 4.810 4.540 4.381 4.137 3.911 3.707 3.505 3.4')1 7Yo 7.013 ~.600 6.260 5.891> ~.5!:4 5.352 5.044 4~7'59 4.500 4.246 4.112 9Y. 9.372 7.S69 7.447 7.004 6,590 6.344 '5.97-;: 5.626 $.310 5.003 4.84~ O. ACCL'ML'L. ANN. CO'ST ($1000) 2% 0.8.916 77.661 96.628 95.711 104.916 114.442 124.102 1:<3.913 143.913 1'54.069 164.637 5Y. 86.197 98.263 110.551 122.9'55 135.481 148.415 161.483 174.702 188.110 201.674 215.7'56 77-100.707 115.571 130.6'57 145.859 161.183 176.982 192.915 208.999 225 .. 272 241.701 2~e,7:9 9,.. 115.554 13~.277 151,222 169:283 187.466 206.196 225.,060 244.075 26<')~279 292 .. 639 ::102.686 E. ACCUMULATED PRESENT WORTH ANNUAL COST ('S1000) 2X 44,49~ 48.376 52.097 55.620 58.956 62.183 .<;5.:'41 68.144 70.909 73.534 76.l'86 '5y. 54.0<:>2 59.449 64.548 6 9 .3'53 73.893 7$.279 82.410. 96.32i 90.034 93.539 "b,'94r) n:. 62.142 68.742 75.002 90.898 96.452 91.804 96.948 101.607 106.107 110.3'53 114.465 9% 70.384 7!h :'53 85.700 Q2.704 99.294 105.638 111.610 117.23.<; 122.546 1:"7.549 132.3"'1 4-A 199(1 1991 1992 1993 1994 199~ 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 F. ACCUM PRES WORTH OF ENEROV MILLS/KWH 2'Y. 1.422 1.'514 1. '598 1.674 1.743 1.807 1. $65 1.918 1.967 2.011 2.053 57-1.689 1.816 1.931 2,03'5 2,129 2.216 2,2'9-3 2.366 2.431 2.490 2.~46 77-1,91'5 2.072 2.214 2,341 2.456 2,562 2.658 2.745 2.824 2.896 2,963 97. 2.143 2,330 2'.,498 2,649 2.785 2.911 3.,024 3.127 3.220 3.30~ 3.334 , . , . • • II , , I " , . lfi • i • P()W!':f'l CQ'3T ""rUDY INTERTIED SYSTEM AL TER~AT!VE 4-B HYDRO HIGH LOAD 1979 1930 1981 1';>92 193:) 1934 1'>35 1936 1 9 87 1~$3 198~ 1. LOAD DEMAND DEMA~~[I -YW 5, ISS 5.47"?J 5,Qe2 6,435 6,938 7,492 7.9~'5 3,4<>:3 ~,O(ll 9.504 10.007 ENERGY -MWH 22,740 Z4,2bl Z~., 8?:t) Z9.400 31,970 34,540 37,109 3<>,67'9 4~,24:1 44.313 47,387 ~ SOURCES -I<W A. EX I'>TlN(l DIESEL LOCATION OR UNIT 1 9.400 8.400 8.400 8,400 3.400 3,400 9.400 8.400 3.400 8.400 3.400 :2 1. 6~,1 1.661 1.,661 1 • 661 1.661 1.661 1.661 1.661 1.661 1.661 1.661 '3 4 '5 '-' 7 8 .~ 10 11 12 B. ADDITIONAL OIE'3EL UNIT I 2,51)0 2t~I){) 2,50(l .2.~OQ 2.~OO 2.'500 2,500 2,500 2,'500 2 I '5(')() ::? '3 4 ':l (, Co ex ISTlN I3 HY(1R') UNIT I ~ D. A[lDITIONAL HY['RO UNIT 1 JC),I)Of) 3t..) .. 000 '30, f)(H) :30 .. (100 :.' 3 TOTAL CAPA':;ITY -KW 1 ,). <)61 t~,S61 1:::.5'<:·1 12,561 1=::,~61 12,561 1::.,.5(.,1 4:.'.561 4:-,561 42, '5,: .. 1 42.561 LAR'~E<:T I)NIT 3,761 3.761 3.761 3.761 3.761 3, 7~'1 3.71:>1 :31 ,i::,!,d 31.661 '31,661 31,661 F"lRM CAPACITY 6., ')1)0 :3 I ;3.)() 8,$00 8' • ;3(')1) :3, Sf)f) 3.:300 :3, :30" 10,'~OO 1 () • .:.t(H) 10, <)c)O 10 • .,")f)f) ':·Uf.:PLU'3 OR (oEF' len) -KW 1. 11 ~ 3.3:::1 ::.BI:e> =.315 1.81~ 1.31):3 80S :., 40'Z 1 , :3,?? 1,3"(-:~'~3 NET HYDFlO CAPACITY -M~H 1 :'?~t Sf)t) 1":6,800 126,SO!) 1 ::'6, S'1)i) IIET o IE'3EL CAF'AC ITY -I1WH -SS,11:;6 77 t I):~:?: 77.0:?8 77, r)f3:,3 77.083 77,0;38 77.08!3 95,4:34 ..:)5.484 '4'5,4:"34 '?IS, 4:)4 [lIE-;,EL GENERf'TtQN -MWH ::::::.7~0 :::4,:::61 ':~.:33r) :':>,4(,H) 31,t.;);'t) 34.540 '37. Ii)'~ ':I,'RPLI.I'; OR ( OEFl':ITl MWH ~::,44:3 ~2,!?!~7 !SI) l '~'5:;! 47,6:~;'3 45,11:3 4~.548 :-;." '~!7''J ,"¥lc:.~ 4~34 9'5, 4:::4 "')5.4:)4 <::IS,. ..l!3~ 4-B 1"90 1991 1<192 1993 1994 199'5 1996 1997 1999 1999 2000 1. LOAD OEM AND DEMAND -KW 10.511 11.948 13.336 14.823 16.261 17.699 19.136 20.574 22.012 23.449 24.997 ENERGY -MWH 49.957 56.739 63.'520 70,302 77.084 93.966 90.647 97 .. 429 104.211 110.992 117.774 2. SOLIRCES -KW A. EX rSTINO DIESEL LOCATION OR UNIT 1 9.400 9.400 9.40c) 9.400 9.400 9.400 9.400 9.400 9.400 9.400 9.400 2 1.661 1.6bt 1.661 1.661 1.0.0.1 1.60.1 1.661 1.0.61 1.0.61 1.661 1.661 3 4 5 6 7 3 9 10 11 12 B.' ADDITIONAL DIESEL UNIT 2.500 2.500 2.500 2.500 2.500 2.500 2.500 2.500 2.500 2,'500 2.'500 :2 2.000 2.0.00 2.600 2.600 2.600 2.600 2.600 2.600 2.600 2,600 2.600 3 5,')00 5.000 5.000 5.000 5.000 5.000 ~:;.OOO '5,000 5.000 4 5.000 5.000 5.000 5.000 5.000 5.000 5 5.000 5.000 b C. EX ISTINO HYDRO UNIT 1 2 O. ADDlTIONAL HYDRO LIN IT 1 30.000 30.000 30.000 30.000 30.000 30.000 30.000 30.000 30.000 :;10.000 :;10.000 :2 3 TOTAL CAPACITY -KW 45.10.1 45.161 '!>0.161 50.161 50.161 55.161 55.161 '55.161 '55.161 60.161 60,161 LARGEST UNIT 31,661 31.661 31.661 31.661 31.661 31.661 31.661 31.661 31,661 31.661 31.0.61 FIRM CAPACITY 13.500 1:;1.500 1S.'500 H10500 19.500 23.,~OO 23.500 23.500 2:;1.500 29,'500 28.500 SURPLUS OR (DEFICIT) -KW 2.98-" 1 .. ~5: 5.114 3.677 2.2:;1<1 '5.901 4.364 2.,~2b 1.499 5.0'Sf 3.613 NET HYORO CAPACITY -MWH 126.800 126.600 126.900 126.800 126.900 126.S00 126.900 126,900 126.800 1260.900 126.900 NET OIESEL CAPACITY -MWH 119.260 119.260 162.060 162.060 162.000 205.960 20:5.960 20:5.960 205.960 249.660 249.660 OIESEL DENERATION -MWH SURPLUS OR !DEFICIT) -MWH 118.260 118.260 162.060 162.00.0 1b2.060 205.960 ~OS,BbO 205.860 205.960 249.660 249.660 Ii: • , . , . I 11 , . , , , , lI\. , , .. . , , . I , , , , . , . , , 4-B 1979 1990 1981 1982 19133 1984 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 3. INVESTMENT COSTS ('10001 1979 DOLLARS A. EXISTING DIESEL 3,990 3.990 3.990 3.990 3.990 3.990 3.990 3.990 3.990 3.990 3.990 S. ADDITIONAL DIESEL UNIT 1 2.175 2,175 2.175 2.175 2,175 2. 175 2.175 2.175 2.175 2.175 2 3 4 5 6 C. EXISTING HVDRO D. ADDITIONAL HVDRO UNIT 1 99.657 99.657 99.657 99t~~1 :2 3 E. TRANSMISSION PLANT ADDITIONS UNIT 1 3.100 3.100 '3.100 3.100 3.100 3.100 3.100 '3.1(1) 3.100 ~ F. TAXES PROD. P.LANT INFLATED VALLIES Z5 '51 '5'5 ~9 64 69 7":! 15 79 1 ::t' 1:''5 TOTAL ('111000) 1979 DOLLARS 3.9<;>0 6. t.~5 Qt26~ "'.::65 9,;::65 9.265 '9,;:?6'5 10:3,922 109,,9::2 10$.92: lOS,>:)::?::! INFLATED VAUJES 3.990 6.33<) 9,955 '1,955 9.955 9.955 ~.\'?~5 169,332 168.332 le·g, 3'3:',2 Ib8 .. JJ2 4. FIXED COST ($1000) INFLATED VALUES A. DEBT SERVICE 1. EXISTING 241 241 241 241 241 241 241 241 ~41 241 :'41 2. ADDITIONS SUBTOTAL :X 94 23'> 239 ~39 239 :3'~ 6.'574 6.574 b~574 6.574 '5Y-143 364 364 364 364 364 9.8"'4 9.894 Q,9"4 <>,gQ4 7Y-181 460 4,~0 460 460 460 lZ.691 12,691 12.69 1 12.6"1 Qy' :Z2 564 ':.64 504 564 564 15.!oSl 15.551 15.551 1-;'.~51 B. INSURANCE 12 21 35 38 41 44 46 803 835 869 Q03 TOTAL FIXED COST ($1000) ~y. ~y. ~. PRODUCTION COST ($1000) INFLATED VALUES A. OPERATION AND MAINT 1. DIESEL 2. HYDRO 9. FIJEl AND LUBE OIL TOTAL PRODllCT ION COST ($ 1 (00) TOTAL ANNUAL COST ($1000) Z~ 57- 7'7. 9'7. ENERGY REOI.! I REI1ENTS -MI-IH MILLS/KI-IH C. PRESENT WORTH ANNIJAL COST ( $ 1000 ) 2% 5'7. 7'7. 9'7. D. ACCUI1Ul. ANN. COST (SI000) :;:)( 7'Y. 9'7. E. ACCUI'1L1LATED PRESENT WORTH ANNUAL COST (SIOOO) 27. '5'7. 7)( 9)( , . f , 1979 1980 593 2,071 2,{<''54 2.93~ 2,932 2,932 2.932 22.740 , " 2.93Z 2.93::: 2.9':? 2.932 2,93:2 2.932 2.9'3~ 2.93::: 2,93~ 2.93:2 2,o3Z 2.932 , , 407 456 494 5')5 662 2.430 3.092 3.4<>9 3.'548 3.596 3.627 144 146 14" 149 ~.270 3.316 3.3'51 3.3<>0 6,431 6.480 6.'518 ~h~59 6.20:.:' 6,248 6.283 6.322 570 69'5 791 995 192 2.445 2.637 3.207 3.332 3,428 3,~32 26,S30 120 1:'4 128 132 2.$01 ::~.~ 1 (\ Z .. ?':)4 3.0:35 <>,638 <>.812 0.946 10.091 9.003 9.158 9.217 9.407 , , 577 702 798 902 208 2.947 3.1'5'5 3,732 3.957 3.953 4.057 2<l'.400 1:17 131 134 138 3 .. :!Z7 3,312 13.370 13.669 13.S<l'0 14.148 .04<l' .306 .504 .719 1<l'83 ~a'3 710 SOl:. 910 224 3.749 4.334 4.459 4,5'55 4.659 31.970 " 136 I 'J'T 142 146 3.306 3.402 3.475 3.'554 17.704 18.1:'9 19.454 13.807 1'5.35'5 15.708 15.0 79 16.273 1984 '393 718 814 918 242 4.432 S,025 5.150 5.246 5.350 34.'540 14'3 14<l' 15~ 155 3.672 3.740 ,3,814 22,7~9 ~3.278 23.700 24.157 19.9 38 19.380 19.71<l' 20.087 198'5 598 723 819 923 2'52 4,772 '5.024 5~622 5.747 '3.843 5.947 37.109 1'51 1'55 1'57 100 ;:).746 3.829 3.80 '3 3.<l'63 213.3'51 ~9.,O~'5 :9.,~43 30.104 2:!.694 234209 :13.612 24.0'50 f. , , I 1996 7,693 11.013 13.810 16.1:.70 262 428 690 8.383 11.703 14.~00 17.360 39.679 '5. 7. 211 295 365 438 9.030 10.911 36,734 41),1:9 44.043 47.464 27"'1<jlO~ 30,49 7 32.,642 34.361 1997 7.729 11.048 13.84'5 16.705 273 473 746 8.474 11.70 4 14.'5<l'1 17.451 42.,243 4,'9'3= 6,864 9.4':)~ 10,157 4'5.208 5:,~:-2 58.634 64.91'5 32,837 37,361 410134 4'5.019 I 1988 7.803 11.123 13.920 16.780 284 521 805 8.608 11.<l'28 14.7:!'5 17.'585 44.918 198<l' 7.843 11.163 13.<l'60 16.820 295 574 8.71::? I::! ",.)2 14.829 17.6:39 47.387 IEJ4 2~4 313 373 4.68:: 4.42<l' 6.488 od 16 8.009 7.538 9,56'5 S,'~Q2 53.,916 62,529 64.4'50 76.482 73.3'5<l' 88.199 82.500 100.189 37,519 43.84<:1 49.143 '54.583 41.<l'48 49,96'3 56.681 63.'57'5 , . 4-B , .. , . 4-B 1979 1980 1 9 81 1982 1983 19134 1,;)85 198"" 1987 1989 1<;13<;1 F. ACCUM PRES WORTH OF ENERGV MfLLS/¥I-lH 2Y. 129 264 369 473 *!J77 680 781 91:2 1.029 1.133 1.227 5Y. 129 265 373 480 5Sb 692 795 979 1. 141 1.2136 1~41~ n. 129 267 379 4S8 596 704 809 1,031.> 1.237 1,416 1.57'5 9Y. 129 268 383 496 "'07 718 925 1,098 1.339 t ,551 1.741 4-B 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 199'3 1996 1997 1999 1999 2000 3. INVESTMENT COSTS (101000) 1979 DOLLARS A. EX ISTING DIESEL 3.990 3.970 3.990 3.990 3.9 90 3.990 3.990 3.990 3.990 3.990 3.99 0 B. ADDITIONAL DIESEL UNIT 1 2.17'3 2, 17~ 2.17'3 :2. 17'5 2.17'5 2 .. 175 2'.175 2.175 2017'3 2. 17'3 2.175 2 2.262 2.~62 ~t262 2,262 2t262 2.262 2,=62 2,262 :,262 2,262 2.262 3 4.3'50 4.350 4.3'50' 4t3~O 4,350 4.350 4.350 4.,350 4.3'30 4 4.350 4.350 4.3-:;0 4.350 4.3'50 4,350 '3 4,350 4,350 6 2.262 2 .. 26::! C. EXISTING HYDRO D. ADDITIONAL HYDRO lIN IT 1 99,657 99.6'57 99.657 99.6'57 99.6'37 9 9 .6'37 99.657 99.657 99.657 99.6'57 99.657 2 3 E. TRANSMISSION PLANT ADDITIONS UNIT 1 3.100 3.100 3.100 3.100 3.100 3.100 3.100 3.100 3.100 3.100 3.100 Z r:. TAXES PROD. PLANT INFLATED VALUES 130 178 18'3 241 Z~O 260 270 280 292 34'3 3'59 TOTAL (UOOO) 1979 DOLLARS 111.184 111.194 115.'334 115.534 11'3.534 119.884 119.884 119.884 119.884 126.4Q 6 126,4"'6 INFLATED VALUES 172.537 172.537 181.284 lSI,284 181,:::84 191. 124 191-124 1°1,124 191,124 208~6~1 2<)8.621 4. FIXED COST (101000) INFLATED VALllES A. DEBT SERVICE 1. EXISTING 241 241 241 241 241 :=:41 241 241 241 241 241 2. ADDITIONS SUBTOTAL ~4 6.742 6.742 7.0QZ 7,0<;>2 7.092 7.4$6 7.486 7.486 7,,486 $.186 $.186 5Y. 10.1'51 10.151 10.685 10.&85 10.6'35 11.:::96 11.286 11.286 11.286 12.3'5'5 t:.3SS n 13.016 13.016 13.692 13.6<;>2 13.692 14.4~: 14.452 14.452 14,4~2 1 S, 8<.1:3 15.S03 9y' 15.949 15.949 16,777 16.777 16.777 17.709 17. 70S 17.708 17.708 19.364 19.364 B. I NSI.IRANCE 962 1,001 1.094 10137 1.183 1.2Q7 1.349 1.403 1.4'59 1.6S6 1. i'~~ , , , r , '" I , . II • I , , . , .. 4-8 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 TOTAL FIXED COST (.1000) 2% 9.07'5 S.162 9.612 S.711 9.766 9.284 9.346 9.410 9.478 10.429 10.~OS '5% 11.494 11.571 12.205 12.304 12.359 13.084 1').146 13.210 13.278 14.597 14.677 7Y. 14.349 14.,436 15.212 1'5.311 15.366 16,250 16,312 16.376 16.444 18.045 18,125 9)(. 17.282 17.369 19.297 18.396 19.451 19.506 19.569 19.632 19.700 21.606 21.696 5. PRODUCTION COST (.1000) INFLATED VALlIES A. OPERATION AND MAINT 1. DIESEL 307 396 412 429 446 464 '576 ~99 623 649 674 .., HYDRO 628 742 96'3 995 1.13'5 1. 29'S 1.444 1.61'5 1.796 1.987 20193 B. FUEL AND LUBE OIL TOTAL PRODUCTION COST (.1000) 935 1.138 t,27' 1,424 1. '381 1.749 2.020 2,214 2.419 2'.0'3'5 2,867 TOTAL ANNUAL COST (ttOOO) 2Y. 9.010 9.300 9.899 10.13'3 H'I.347 11.033 11.366 11,624 11.897 13.063 13.37'5 S% 12.419 12.709 13.482 13.n8 13.940 14.833 1'3.166 1'5.424 15.697 17~23.2 17.~,44 n. 15.284 15.574 16.499 16.735 16.947 17.999 18.332 18.590 18.863 20.680 20,992 9% 18.217 19.'507 19,574 19.920 20.032 21.25'5 21 ;SSS 21.946 2Z.t 19 241241 24.553 ENERGY REQlI IREMENTS -MWH 49.9'57 ~b,,73? 63.'320 70.302 77.094 83.866 90,647 97.429 104.211 110.992 117.774 MILL':::II<WH 2% 190 164 1'56 144 134 132 125 119 114 US I 14 5':( 249 224 21:2 175 lSI 177 167 1'38 151 15'5 149 7% 301> 274 260 2'38 220 21'5 202 191 181 186 17$ 9'Y. 365 326 308 .282 260 253 238 224 212 218 208 C. PRESENT \.IORTH ANNI)AL COST ('1>1000) 24 4,2S1 4.12<> 4.104 3.<>31 3,750 3.737 3.59 9 3.439 '3~Z~O 3.376 3 .. 2~O 'S'/' 5.900 5,043 5.SQS 5,3~4 5~O~:! 5.024 4. '301 4.%3 4.340 4.4'53 4.237 77. 7~:~1 6.915 6 .. 842 6.490 6,142 6.097 ~ .. S03 '5.'S00 '5.216 5,344 5.070 9% 8,655 9,217 8.123 7,637 7.261 7.200 6,834 6 .. 463 6.116 6,264 '5.930 O. ACClIMlIL. ANN. COST al0(0) 2% 71.:na 80.933 ~t), 727 100.?62 111.209 lZ:?,~42 133.603 145.232 157,129 170.1"'2 193,'567 S?. 98.901 101.610 115.092 128,9:0 142.760 157,5'?3 172.759 193.133 203.380 221,112 ::39.656 7"1. 103.472 119.046 135.535 1'52.;:70 169.217 187.216 205,'549 2:;'4,133 ::43.001 263.631 284,673 9'Y. 11S.406 136.913 1'56.437 171:0.307 196.339 '=17,594 239.1$2 261,029 283.147 307.38B 331."'41 E. ACClIM!)l.ATEO PRESENT \.IORTH ANNl'AL COST ($1000) 2% 46.229 50.358 '54.462 '59 .. 30;>3 62.143 6'5.$30 69.473 72.917 76.207 79,583 92.S13 '5'1. 55.S65 61 ,~O8 67,103 72.427 77.479 82.503 97.304 91.967 96.207 100.660 104.$'>7 7% 1>3.942 70,$57 77.0"9 84.189 90.331 96.428 102.231 107.731 112.947 118.291 1:3.361 9% 72.230 80,447 88.570 9th:51 103.513 110.713 117. '552 124.015 130.131 136·39'3 142.32'5 4-8 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1993 1999 2000 F. ACCIJ/1 PRES WORtH OF ENERGY MfLLS/YWH 27.-1,313 1.386 1 • 451 1,S07 1,556 1,601 1,641 1,676 1,708 .7'33 1,766 5'7. 1,533 1,632 1.120 1.796 1.862 1,922 1,975 2.022 2.06.4 .104 2.140 7Y. 1.720 1.842 1,950 2.042 2 .. 122 2.195 2.259 2.316 2.366 .414 2.,457 9'7. 1,914 2.059 2,187 2,~9b 2.390 2.476 2,551 2.617 2.676 ,732 2,7S2 I , If , , . , , , . , . , . , , , , I • f I f , , t , . I " PI)WEA CI)'3T ~T'JOY INTERTIED ' SYSTEM -HYDRO -tow LOAD &.ELECTRIC HEAT ALTERNATIVE' 5-A 1979 t"O. t981 1982 1983 l"C t98'S 1986 1987 19$$ 1~ 1. 1.01'0 DEMAND tHiI'lA"O -I"W S.tes 15.479 ".770 6.060 6.3S1 6.642 6.9'32 7.223' 7.1513 7.e04 8.0<11'5 F.NEROV -rn.'H 22.140 24.:61 2'.821 27.393 28.9SS 30.$2' 32.090 a'.e64 es.989 92.090 ')1'5.214 2. SOIJRCn -KW A. tUSTlNO DIESEl. LOr.ATION OR UNIT 1 8.400 8.400 8.400 8.400 ..400 8.COO 8.400 8.400 e.400 8.400 8.400 2 1.661 1.661 1.661 1.661 10661 1.661 1.661 1.661 10661 1.661 1.661 3 4 , 6 -7 .. S !t 10 U 12 .... - 8. ADDITIONAl. DIE'S!1. UNIT 1 2.~ :2.300 2.300 2.300 2.300 2.300 2.300 2.300 2.300 2.300 :! 200 200 200 200 200 200 :00 ::00 :"" ::I 4 ~ 6 c. tUSTlNO HVtlRO 'JIll IT I 2' O. AO!)tT10NAL HYDRO IJNIT t 30.000 30.(100 30.000 ,0.OOQ 2 :l! TOTAL CAPACITY -KW to.061 12.':61 t2.~~t J~ .. ~6t 12.'!!61 12.~61 12,'61 42.561 42.'61 42. !o61 4:,561 I.':\Rr..E~T I.IN I T 3.161 3.761 3.761 3.761 3.1~1 3.761 3,161 31.661 31.661 31.661 '31oM1 F IRl'I CAPACITY 6.300 • '3.60" 8.'300 e.soo 8.'300 $.soo $,,$00 10.900 10.900 10.900 10,"'00 'SI..IRF'Ut-; OR !!)EFICn) -)0.1 10 11: 3,1:1 3.0~·' : .. 740 ~.44~· 2.2'5:9 1.86$ 3.677 3.337 3.0<>6 :,9(';' NET HYDRO CAPACITY -~WH ,. t~6.S0(! 1~6.S(lO \~6.$OO 1:6,$1,"1(\ NET Pt£SEL ~APACITY -M~H '5~.t$O "'.31t. ?:i".(I~S 77.('1$19 77,(113:3 "".O~$ "7,0013 9'5.4"'4 ~!:.4$.q 9'5 .. ~H~4 Q,,!:,,4$4 II f(';EL C.e:Ne:~ATtON -m./H ~2.740 ~4,,::61 :5.:;t~7 :T.~·:l3 ::~,<:)!:s 3(\ .. ~:S 3~.('I'·O $lIl'lPLt.t1 I.~R tOE!" IC IT) -I'Iwl'/ 'l~.44a '5t, "7~ '1. :':(.1 4 .... 6-¢'S 4$: 1:::f.I 4( •• ', .. '3 4 4 ,?>6$ ?,.4$~ 05.4\$4 <:)'5,40.:1 <)".$,4301 5-A 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 199~ 1996 1997 1999 1999 2000 1. LOAD DEMAND DEMAND -1<\01 9.396 3.930 9.274 9.719 10.163 10.607 11. 0~1 11.49~ 11 .940 129384 12.929 ENERGY -MWH 99.316 102.099 10~.909 109.692 113.501 117.284 121.068 124.877 126.800 126.800 126.800 2. SOURCES -K\oI A. EX ISTINO DIESEL LOCA T I ON OR UN IT 1 8.400 9.400 8.400 8.400 8.400 9.400 8.400 9.400 9.400 9.400 9.400 2 1.661 1.661 1,661 1.661 1.661 1.661 1.661 1.6.61 1.661 1.661 1,6.61 :3 4 5 6 7 9 9 10 11 12 B. ADDITIONAL DIESEL UNIT 1 2.300 2.300 2.300 2.300 2.300 2.300 2.300 2.300 2.300 2.300 2,,$00 2 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 :3 2,100 2.100 2,100 2.100 2,100 2.100 4 2,100 :5 6 C. EXISTING HYDRO LIN IT 1 2 D. ADDITIONAL HYDRO LIN IT 30.000 30.000 30.000 30.000 :30.000 30.000 30.000 30,000 30.000 30,000 30.000 2 3 TOTAL CAPACITY -K\oI 42.'561 42. '561 4::,~61 42.'561 42.561 44.661 44.661 44.661 44.661 44.661 4b.7bl LARGEST UNIT 31.661 31.661 31.661 31.661 31.661 31,661 31.6601 31.6601 310661 31,661 31.661 FIRM CAPAC ITV 11).900 10.900 10.9 00 10.900 10.900 13.000 13.000 13.000 13.000 13,000 15.100 SURPLUS OR (OEFICIT ) -KW 2.:514 2,070 1.626 1. 181 737 2.393 1.949 1.:505 1.060 616 2 .. 272 NET HYDRO CAPAC lTV -MWH 126d:lOO 126.900 126.800 126.900 126.800 126,900 126.800 126.900 126,$00 126.800 126.800 NET DIESEL CAPACITV -MWH 95.484 95.484 9'5.494 95.494 95.484 113.990 113.990 113.390 113,830 113dS90 132.276 DIESEL GENERATION -MWH ~.lIRPLUS OR (DEFICIT) -MWH <>'5.484 9'5.484 9'5.494 95.494 9:5.484 113.890 113.880 113.990 113.980 113.880 132,Z76 t .. " , , , . , , ! , 1 'I!' , t , " . , " I , .. • • 5-A 1979 1990 1991 1992 1993 1984 1995 1996 1987 1988 1999 3. INVESTMENT COSTS ($1000) 1979 DOLLARS A. EXISTING DIESEL 3.990 3.990 3.990 3.990 3.990 3.990 3.990 3.990 3.990 3.990 3.990 B. ADDITIONAL DIESEL UNIT 1 2.001 2.001 2.001 2.001 2.001 2.001 2.001 2.001 2.001 2.001 2 174 174 174 174 174 174 174 174 174 3 - 4 '5 6 C. EX ISTING HYORO O. ADDITIONAL HYDRO UNtT 1 99.657 qq.6~7 99.657 99,6'!>7 2 :3 E. TRANSMISSION PLANT ADDITIONS UNIT 1 3.100 3.100 3.100 3.100 '3.100 3.100 3.100 '3.100 J.I0.) 2 4. '::t.7 126 1'24 12~ F. TAXES PROD. PLANT lNFLATED VALLIE'; '::5 46 50 !<4 59 63 "6 68 71 74 77 TOTAL ($1000) 1979 DOLLARS 3,99 0 5.9<>1 9,~65 9.26'5 9.265 9.265 q.2b~ 1 D. 189 109.04$ 109.046 10"',049 INFLATED VALLIES 3.990 6.1'51 9,970 9,970 9.970 9.970 9.970 17'5, 1 ~9 169.::!S'S 168.008 167.7'::'6 4. FIXED COST ($1000) INFLATED VALUES A. DEBT SERVICE 1. EXISTING 241 241 241 241 241 241 241 241 241 241 Z4t " ADDITIONS L. SUBTOTAL 2X 86 239 239 23q 2'39 239 6.345 6.571 6.560 6.'549 57-132 ::t65 365 ::t65 365 365 10.309 9.891 9.$74 9.857 7Y-167 462 462 462 462 462 13.217 12,688 12.667 12.64'5 97-204 '56'5 565 56S 565 56'5 11:>.194 15.546 15.5::0 1'5.4<>3 B. lNSliRANCE 12 20 35 38 41 44 46 835 834 966 90" 5-A 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1999 1999 TOTAL FtXED COST ($1 """) 2'Y. 278 393 'S6'S '572 'S90 587 '592 7.989 7.717 7.741 7.767 '57-278 439 691 699 706 713 718 11.453 11.037 11.055 11.075 77-278 474 789 79'S 803 810 91'5 14.361 13.934 13.848 13.863 97-278 511 991 99S 906 913 918 17.338 16.692 16.71)1 16.711 :5. PRODUCTION COST ('S1000) INFLATED VALUES A. OPERATION AND MAINT 1 • DIESEL 583 662 192 208 224 242 2'52 262 273 294 295 2. HYDRO 923 99'5 1.071 1.1'53 B. FUEL AND LUBE OIL 2.071 2.430 2.3~3 2. 74'S 3.194 3.703 4.126 TOTAL PRODUCTION COST (UOOO) 2.b54 :J.Q9Z 2.'54:5 2.953 3.419 3.94'5 4.378 1.18'5 1,268 1, 3'5~ 1.448 TOTAL ANNUAL COST ($1000) 2% 2.932 3.48'5 3.11Q 3.'52:5 3.998 4.'532 4.9'70 9.174 8.985 9.0"'6 9.215 57. 2 .. 932 3,'531 3.236 3.6'51 4.124 4.6:58 '5.096 lZ,63a 12.305 12.410 12'.5:3 77. 2.932 3.566 3.333 3.749 4.221 4.755 5. 193 15.546 1'5.102 15,203 15,311 97-2.932 3.603. 3.436 3.951 4.324 4.958 :5.296 18.'523 17.960 19.056 19.159 ENERGY REQUIREMENTS -MWH 22.740 24.261 2~,a27 27.393 29.959 30.525 32.090 95.864 98.999 92.090 Q5,216 MtLLS/KIJH 2% 129 144 120 129 139 148 155 107 101 99 97 '57-129 146 125 133 142 153 1'59 147 138 135 132 77-129 147 120 137 146 156 162 181 170 165 101 9Y. 129 149 133 141 149 159 165 216 :02 196 191 C. PRESENT \.IORTH ANNUAL COST (SI000) 24 2,C;-;::::: 3 .. 257 2.716 2.877 3.050 3.231 3.312 '5.713 5.2:9 4,<>48 4.694 '57-2.Q32 3.800 2.926 2.990 3.146 3.321 3.396 7.S70 7.1~2 6.750 6.366 77-2 .. ~32 3.333 ~.911 3.0S9 372~O 3.390 3.460 9.681 8.7"'0 S~:b9 7t783 9y. :?,.932 3 .. 367 3.001 3.144 3 .. Z~9 3.464 3,529 11 .. 535 10.453 9.S:::1 0.231 O. ACCLIMUL. ANN. COST (UOOO) 2Y. 2,932 6.417 9.527 13.0S2 17,OSO 21.582 26,'552 3'5.726 44.711 53.907 63.022 SY. 2,932 6,463 9,699 13,3'50 17.474 22.132 27,229 39,366 52,171 64.531 77.104 7'1. 2,93~ 6.49 8 9.931 13. '579 17.800 22.555 27.748 43,294 58.3"'6 73.'599 99.910 97-2,932 6,'385 9.971 13.822 19.146 23.004 29.300 46.823 64.783 92,939 100,90 9 E. ACCUMULATED PRESENT \.IORTfol ANNUAL COST (~1000) 2Y. 2,932 6.199 9.0 05 11.782 14.932 19.063 21,375 27.098 32,317 37.265 41.0 4'" 5Y. 2 .. 93:? 6~~'3Z 9.058 12.038 15.194 19.505 21.901 29.771 36.933 43,693 ~O,O49 77-2 .. Q3~ 6.26'3 9.176 12.235 15.455 19.945 22.:)05 31.986 40.776 49.045 56,8~9 97-2 .. 93:2 6,299 9.300 12.444 15.743 19.207 22.736 34.271 44, 7:~4 '54.'545 63.776 , t f , ¥ • f I f • 'I I , , '! , , . , , , • I l I 5-A 1979 19130 191'31 1982 1993 1904 190'5 198'; 1997 1900 198') ~. ACCUM PRES WORTH OF ENERGY MILLsn:WH 27-129 264 '369 474 '579 6e'5 798 8'55 914 96S 1.017 '57-129 265 '374 493 591 700 806 99S 979 1.0'51 1. liS 71-129 266 379 491 602 713 921 934 1.033 1,123 I. 20'S 9% 129 268 384 499 613 726 936 971 1.099 \.196 1.293 5-A 1990 1991 1"'92 1993 \??4 19<>5 1996 1997 1998 1?99 2000 3. INVESTMENT COSTS (SI000) 1979 DOLLARS A. EX ISTING DIESEL 3.990 3.990 3.990 3.990 3.990 3.990 3.990 3.990 3.990 3.990 3.990 B. ADDITIONAL DIESEL UNIT 1 2.001 2.001 2.001 2.001 2.001 2.001 2.001 2.001 2.001 2.001 2.001 2 174 174 174 174 174 174 174 174 174 174 174 3 t .927 1,921 1.927 1.827 1.827 1,927 4 1.827 5 6 C. EX ISitNO HYDRO D. ADDITIONAL HYDRO LIN IT 1 99.657 99.657 99.6'57 9<>.657 99.6!1c7 99.657 99.657 99.657 99.657 99.657 q9.6~7 2 3 . E. TRANSMISSION PLANT ADDITIONS UNlT 1 3.100 3.100 3.100 3.100 3.100 3.100 3.100 3.100 3.100 3.100 3.100 2 124 134 136 134 136 134 134 136 1::;14 136 134 F. TAXE'S PROD. PLANT INFLATED VALUES 90 93 123 128 133 138 144 1~~ 201 209 218 TOTAL (SIOOO) 1979 DOLLARS 109.046 109.056 109.059 109.056 109.0'58 110.833 110.883 110.885 110.883 110,985 112.710 INFLATED VAL,-IES 167.426 167.138 16b,S2:::! 166.486 166.144 169.913 169.704 169.4"'2 169,262 169.032 17'3.811 4. FIXED COST (.,1000) INFLATED VALUES A. DEBT SERVICE I. EXISTINO 241 241 Z41 :;.':41 241 ::::41 241 241 241 241 ::;41 2. ADDITIONS SUBTOTAL 27, 6.:537 6.52:5 6.512 6.499 6.485 6.6::;16 6.629 6.620 6.611 6.602 6.793 57-9.839 9'1921 9 .. $02 9.781 9.760 9.990 9.977 9.964 9.950 9,936 10t~29 77-12.622 12, bO('I 1::::,576 12.550 12,524 12.81~ 12,799 12.783 12.765 12.747 13.116 97-15.465 15.439 15.408 15.376 15.344 15.701 15.6S1 15,661 15.639 1~;,617 16.069 B. INSURANCe: 934 970 1.006 1,045 1.094 1.153 1.198 1,~44 1.292 1.342 1.43'5 • , , " , t 11 f I f .. f , , I 1 5-A 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1999 1999 :2000 TOTAL FIXEO COST (UOOO 1 2Y. 7.7<)2 7.!H9 7.992 7.913 7.943 9.169 8.211 l'!.260 8.34'5 8.394 e.687 5Y. 11.094 11.115 11.172 11. 19'5 11.218 11,522 11.560 11.604 11.694 11.729 t 2,122 7% 13.a77 13.894 13.946 13.964 13.982 14.347 14.392 14.423 14.499 14.'539 1'5,010 9Y. 16.720 16.732 16.778 16.790 16.802 17.233 17.264 17.301 17.373 17.409 17.963 5. PRODUCTION COST ($1000) INFLATED VALUES A. OPERATION AND MAINT I • DIESEL 307 319 412 429 446 464 492 502 522 . 542 564 2. HYDRO 1.239 1.336 1,442 1.554 1.670 1.796 1.929 2.067 2.193 2.270 2.361 B. FOEL AND LUElE OIL TOTAL PRODUCTION COST ("1000) 1.545 1, b'3~ 1.854 1.993 2.116 2,260 2.411 2.'569 2.705 2.S1:! 2t9~S TOTAL ANNUAL COST ($10001 2Y. 9.337 9.474 9.736 9.996 10.059 10.429 10.622 10,929 11.050 11.200 11.612 ~y. 12.639 12.770 13.026 13.179 13.334 13.792 13.971 14.\73 14.389 14.'540 15.047 n. 1'5.422 15.'549 15,800 15.947 16. ~)99 16,607 16,793 16.992 17.204 17.3'51 17,93'5 9'Y. 18,26'5 18.387 19.632 18.773 18.919 19.493 19.675 19.570 20.079 20,221 '20.899 ENERGY REClUIREMENTS -MWH 98.316 102.099 105.909 109.692 113.'501 117.284 121.0613 124.877 126.900 126.900 126.8(10 MiLLS/KWH 2Y.. 95 93 92 90 99 99 a7 87 S8 9:- 51.. 129 125 123 120 117 118 11 ' 113 113 115 II" n 157 152 149 145 142 142 1'3" 136 136 137 141 9'Y. 186 ISO 176 171 167 166 163 159 15S 159 165 C. PRESENT WORTH ANNUAL COST ('SIOOO) 2% 4.436 4,207 4.040 3.939 3.646 3.532 3.363 3,204 3.055 2.896 2.'904 SX 6.005 '5.670 5.40'5 5, 111 4.833 4,668 4,423 4.193 3.979 3,7'57 3.634 7"1. 7,327 6,9')4 6.556 6.185 5,835 S,62S 5,316 5,027 4,757 4.484 4~ 332 9"1. 8.67$ 8.164 7,7:'32 1,290 6,857 6,603 6,229 5~879 C' e'C"'" -" ",,'-'~ 5,::'5 ~.O45 O. ACCUMLIL. ANN. COST ('101000) 2~ 72,359 81.8'33 91,569 101.465 111,524 121,~52 132,574 143,403 154,4'53 165,659 1779271 5% 89,743 102.513 115,539 128,717 142.0'51 1'55,8:33 169.804 183.977 19S,366 212.906 2:!7,95J 77.. 104.332 119,8SI 135.681 1'51.628 167,726 184.333 201.126 21S,118 235~32:2 ~S2.673 270.608 97-119.263 137,650 156.:82 17'3.0'!'5 193,973 213.466 233.141 253,011 273.089 293,310 314.1"8 E. ACCI)MULATED ?RESENT WORTH ANNUAL COST (~10~)0 ) Z% 46.:385 50,5"'2 54.632 58.470 62,116 6'5.648 69.011 72.2t5 7'5,"270 79.166 80.'770 57. :;0,054 61,724 67.129 72.240 77,073 81,741 86,164 90.357 94.336 "S,0<>3 1 01.7:7 71. 64. 1'5'5 71.059 77.615 9:3.800 89,635 "'5.260 100.576 10'5.603 110,360 114.844 119.176 9Y. 12,454 80.618 88,3'50 9'5.630 102,487 109.090 115.319 121·198 126.750 131.975 137.020 5-A 1990 1-;)'r) 1 1":,,92 1'7"3 1 ':'''4 l~':t-:. 1""'6 19';>7 1 '?';/!3 199';> :'i)(ll) F. ACCI.lM PRE'; f,J(!I"TH ('F ENERGY MILL';/'WH 21.. t,062 1,103 1.141 1.176 1.2t:'18 1.~38 1.266 1. 29~ 1. :316 1 ~ 339 1 • ·3·~· t 5:~ 1.179 1,235 1.Z86 I. '313 1.375 1.41'5 1.45\ 1.494 1 t 515 1.545 1.574 7" " 1.280 1.347 1.409 1,,41:.'5 1.516 1,"564 111 60!3 1'164$ 1,686 1.721 1,75i1) 9~~ 1.381 1. 4L, 1 1.'534 1.60('1 1.6,(:,1 1.717 1.769 1.316 1.860 1, "01 1.9 41 f , . , , , , , , , .. , , .. , , , , , . , .. I I PQWER CO';T ,)l"uoy INTERTIED SYSTEM -HYDRO -HIGH LOAD & ELECTRIC HEAT ALTERNf,TI'lE 5-B 1979 19BO 1991 1'?S2 1993 19134 1<;1:3'5 1936 1997 19'5'3 1"'39 1 • LOAD DEMAND DEMAND -I<I.l '5.1138 '5.479 'S.9~2 6.4a~ !:..9BS 79492 7,~95 S.4~S 9.001 9,S04 10.007 ENERGY -I1I.lH 22.740 24.2!:.1 26,:330 29,40Q 31.970 34.'340 37.109 91.987 96.016 100.120 1(>4.:::49 z. SOURCES -KI.l A. F.:XISTINO DIESEL Lr)CATlON OR UNIT 9.400 13.400 9.400 13.41)0 '3.4<)0 8.400 13.400 3.400 8.400 13.400 9.400 Z 1.661 1.661 1.661 1.661 1.661 1.661 1.661 1 • o!:>6 1 1.661 1.6(,·1 1.661 3 4 '5 6 7 S <;I 10 11 12 B. AOlHTIONAL DIESEL UNIT 1 2,500 2.'500 2.500 2.500 2~~OO 2.500 2.5"0 2.5(1) 2,500 2.'51)1) 2 3 4 .--' 6 Cw EX 1ST I N() HYDRO UNIT 1 2 D. ADDITIONAL HV[)RO ',IN I T 1 -)Ot ('u)!) '30,O(H) 30, l)(lO 30,t:'lOO :2 :3 TOTAL CAPACITY -~:I.l 10.01.>1 1~,S61 1'::.'561 1~,5!.:d 1:.5/.·1 12,4)61 12.'561 4~,561 42.'561 4:? .. '561 42.':.61 LAR(·EST UNIT 3.7/,1 3.761 3.761 3.761 3.761 3.761 3.7(·1 31.661 31,61:01 :) 1.6'·1 -31" ,~~ ... 1 FIRM CAPAI:ITY 6,3(\(' 5,8(H) S·81)1) S~ 800 13. :3<:11) 8.800 ~:t" 3(H) lO",-==>()('! 10,900 10, '?(H) 10, ~I)O ';URPLUS OR (DEFICIT) -KI.l 1.112 3.3:::1 2·818 :2."315 1., 81:-1,3(')$ SO'S ~, 4(l2' 1, sqQ 1, ]"':>·S e':='J NET HYDRO CAPAI= I TV -MWH 1 :( ... , ;?00 1':6, :301) 1 ~·S, :J(H) 1:6 ~ snl) N~T DIESEL (APACITV -~WH 55. IS::: 77,088 77.0'=::3 77. ('1'3:~ 77.088-77. O:3:~ 77.0,38 '''5.4'".; .':)~. 4~::4 °5.4."::4 ':J'5~ 4"34 [l!E'?EL (·ENEPAT ION -M~H ~::,14t) 24. :~'1 :.~. ~3:,O ::;Q~4(j() 31., '"'}7t) 34. -:,.~(1 2:7.1(1';:' :?,'-'f'; PL' J'~ r)R ([lEF !I~! Tl -HWH ~·~.448: 52 .. !::'27 ~·O 1 ::-'5:j 47.1_,8:3 45, t 1':.: 4~,':.4~3 :'">. '4;"") '7J5.4:34 '''/5,4:?4 ·':)5 ~ 4;~4 -:.'5" 4::<4 5-B 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 199'5 1996 1997 1993 1999 2000 1. LOAD DEMAND DEMAND -KW 10. '511 11.949 13.396 14.923 16.261 17.699 19.136 20.574 22,012 23.449 24,:337 ENERGV -M\.JH 108.3'53 116.799 125,270 126,900 126.900 126.800 126.600 126.900 126,900 126.900 126.900 2. SOURCES -KW A. EX ISTING DIESEL LOCATION OR UNIT 8.400 8.400 9.400 9.400 8.400 9.400 8.400 9.400 9.400 9.400 9.400 2 1.661 1.661 1.661 1.661. 1.661 1.661 1.661 1.661 1.661 1.6';1 1.661 3 4 5 6 7 9 9' 10 11 12 9. ADDITIONAL DIESEL UNIT 1 2.500 2.500 2.'500 2.500 2.500 2.500 2.'500 2.'500 2.500 2,~OO 2,500 2 2.600 2.600 2.600 2.600 2,600 2.600 2.600 2.600 2.600 2.600 2,600 3 5.000 5.000 5.000 5.000 5.000 5.000 5.000 5.000 5.000 4 5.000 5.000 5.000 5.000 5.000 '5.000 5 5.000 '5.000 6 C. EXISTING HVDRO UNIT 1 2 D. ADDITIONAL HVDRO UNIT 1 30.000 30.000 30.000 30.000 30.000 30.000 30.000 30.000 30.000 30.000 30.000 2 3 TOTAL CAPACITY -KW 45.161 45.161 50.161 50.161 '50.161 '5'5.161 '5'5. 161 '5'5.161 '5'5.161 60.161 60.161 LARGEST UNIT 31.661 31.661 31.661 31.661 31.661 31.661 31.661 31.661 31.661 31.661 31.661 FIRM CAPACITY 13.'500 13.'500 18,'500 18.'500 18.'500 23,~OO 23.'500 23.500 23,~OO 29.500 29.'500 SVRPLUS OR (DEFICIT ) -KW 2.989 1.552 5.114 3.677 2.239 5.601 4.364 2,926 1.499 5,O~1 3.613 NET HVDRO CAPACITY -MWH 126.900 126.800 126.600 126.800 126.900 126.900 126.800 126.800 126.800 126.800 126,900 NET DIESEL CAPACITY -MWH 119.260 119.260 162.060 162.060 162.060 20'5.960 205.960 205.860 205.$60 249.660 249.660 DIESEL GENERATION -MWH SURPLUS OR (DEFICIT) -MWH 119.260 119.260 162.060 162.060 162.060 205,860 20'5.960 205.860 205.860 249,660 249,660 I I 5-B 1979 1980 1991 1982 1993 1984 198'5 1986 1997 1989 1989 3. INVESTMENT COSTS (UOOO) 1979 DOLLARS A,' EX ISTING DIESEL 3.990 3.990 3.990 3.990 3.990 3.990 3.990 3.990 3.990 3.990 3.<>90 9. ADDITIONAL DIESEL UNIT 2.17!5 2.175 2.17~ 2.173 2.175 2.173 2.175 2.175 2.175 2.17'3 :2 3 4 5 b C. EXISTING HVDRO D. ADDITIONAL HYDRO UNIT 1 99.b57 99.b'S7 <)9.657 99t6~7 2 3 E. TRANSMISSION PLANT ADDITIONS UNIT 1 3.100 3.100 3.100 3.100 3.100 3.100 3.100 3.100 3.100 2 4,'267 126 124 126 F. TAXES PROD. PLANT INFLATED VALl'ES 2'3 '31 5'3 59 64 b9 -., ,-75 79 1'::0 12'3 TOTAL ($1000) 1979 DOLLARS 3,9~O 6.16'.5 ~.26'5 9.265 9.26'5 9,26~ 9t26~ 113.189 109.048 109 .046 !OQ,04:3 I NFLATED VALUE'; 3.990 6.3:"-' 9,955 9.9'55 9. ','5'5 9,,955 9.955 17'5.114 169.270 167,9'~3 167.711 4. FIXED COST ($1000) INFLATED VALUES A. DEST SERVICE 1-EX ISTINQ 241 241 241 241 241 241 :;:':41 241 241 241 241 2. ADDITIONS SUBTOTAL 2h 94 239 239 239 239 23~ 6.845 6.':171 6.560 6,~4~ '5'): 143 364 364 364 364 364 10.308 9.890 9.973 Q,S~6 7"!. 181 460 460 460 460 460 13.215 12.696 12.665 1:.643 9'): ...... ., "'--'564 564 '564 564 564 16.193 15.545 lS,~19 15 .. 4 Q :::! B. INSURANCE 12 21 35 38 41 44 46 835 834 866 9"'9 , TOTAL FIXED COST ($10001 2Y. ~y. 7Y. 9Y. ~. PRODUCTION COST (SI000) INFLATED VALUES A. OPERATION AND MA!NT 1. DIESEL 2. HYDRO B. FUEL AND LUBE OIL TOTAL PRODUCTION COST (SI000) TOTAL ANNLIAL COST (SI000) 2Y. ~y. 7Y. 9% ENERGY REQI.HREMENTS -M\.IH M!LLS/Jo:\.IH 2% 5Y. 7'Y. 9Y. C. PRESENT \.IORTH ANNLIAL COST (SlOOO) 2};' 5Y. 7Yo 9:>:' D. ACCUMLIL. ANN. CO'3:T (s1000) 2"- '5% 7Yo 9% Eo ACCUMULATEO PRESENT \.IORTH ANNUAL COST (S10001 ~4 '5Y.. 7:1. 97. f • " 1979 278 279 279 2713 '5133 2.6'54 2.932 2.932 2.932 2.932 129 129 1:?9 12~ 2.932 2.932 2.932 2.93: 2,932 2,932 2.932 2,,932 2.932 2,932 2.932 2.932 , . 1990 407 456 494 53S 662 3,092 3.499 3.'543 3.'536 3.627 144 141.> 148 149 3.270 3.:316 3.3'51 3.39(1 6.431 6.490 6.'518 6.'5'59 6.202 6.248 6,,283 6 .. 322 , , 19131 '570 69'5 791 9<;>5 192 2.637 3.207 3.332 3.428 3.~32 26.830 120 124 128 132 2.801 ~.910 2.994 3.085 9.639 9.$12 9.946 10.091 9.0t13 9.1'59 9.277 9.407 I • 1982 '577 702 79$ 902 208 2,947 3. 15'3 3.732 3.9'57 3.9~3 4.057 29.400 127 131 134 138 3.046 3.148 3.227 3.312 13.370 13.669 13.999 14. 148 12.049 12.306 12.504 12.719 , . 19133 ~8~ 710 SOl, 910 224 3.749 4.334 4.4'59 4.5~'5 4.6'59 31.970 136 139 142 146 3,306 3.402 3.47'5 3.554 17.704 113.12$ 18.4'54 IS.807 1'5.3'55 15.708 1'5.979 16.273 " , 1984 59'3 719 314 919 242 4.190 4.432 5.025 5.150 ~.246 ~.3'50 34.'540 14~ 149 1~2 155 3.5S3 3,672 3.740 3.814 22 .. 729 23.278 23.700 24.1:57 19.933 19.3(10 19.719 20.097 , . 193'5 599 723 819 923 4.772 5 .. 024 5 .. 622 '5.747 5.1343 '5.947 37.109 151 155 157 160 3.74b 3·829 3.893 3.963 ::8.351 29.0::-S ':9.543 30.104 :::2,684 23.209 23,612 24.0'50 " , 1986 7.996 11.4~9 14.31,6 17.344 262 988 ~,24b 12.709 15.616 18.594 91.897 101 13:3 170 202 5.7~S 7.915 9.725 11.579 ~7,S97 41.734 4'5.159 49.699 29 .. 442 31.124 33.337 3'5.629 1997 7.7'24 11.043 13,339 16.699 273 1,074 1,347 9.071 12.390 1'5,196 19,045 94 129 159 199 5.,279 7 .. ~11 8.838 10.502 46.668 54,1:4 60.345 66.743 33.721 39.335 42.175 46,131 1988 7.797 11.100 13,892 16.746 294 1-165 1.449 9.236 12,,549 15.341 19.19'5 100.120 92 125 153 192 5,,024 6.926 9.344 9.997 '55.904 66.673 75.68b 84.933 39,74'5 4'5.161 '50.:519 '56.023 1989 7.814 11.121 13.909 16.757 29'5 1'1'262 1.557 9.371 12.678 15.46'5 19.314 104.249 90 148 176 4.764 6.445 7.862 9.310 b5 .. 275 79,351 91! 1'51 103 .. 25.:: 43,509 '51.606 59.391 65.339 , . 5-B I , If 1 5-B 1979 1990 1991 1?S2 1983 1?84 198:5 1984 1997 1999 1989 F. ACCUM PRES WORTH OF ENERGY MILLS/KWH 2~ 129 2604 369 473 :577 690 7131 844 899 949 99:5 :!Iy. 129 26:5 373 480 584 692 79:5 SSt 9:56 1.024 1.096 7Z 129 267 379 483 596 704 e09 915 1.007 1.090 1.165 97-129 2608 393 4960 607 718 S2:!1 9:51 1.060 1.159 1.248 5-B 1990 1991 1992 199:3 1994 199~ 1996 1997 1999 1999 2000 3. INVESTMENT COSTS (S 1000) 1979 DOLLARS A. EXISTING DIESEL 3.990 3.990 3.990 3.990 3.990 3.990 3.990 3.990 3.990 3.990 3.990 9. ADDITIONAL DIESEL UNIT 1 2.175 2.17~ 2~115 2.175 2.175 2,175 2.175 2.175 2.175 2.17~ 2.17~ 2 2.262 2~Z62 2.262 2.262 2.262 2,262 2,262 2.262 2.262 2.262 2,262 3 4.3~0 4,35t) 4.350 4.3:50 4.350 4.350 4.350 4.3'50 4,3~O 4 4.3~0 4.3'50 4.350 4.350 4.3~0 4.350 5 4.3'50 4,350 6 C. EXISTING HYDRO D. ADDITIONAL HYDRO UNIT 1 99.6'57 99.6'57 99.657 99.657 99.657 99.6'57 99.657 99.6'57 99.6'57 99.657 99.657 2 3 E. TRANSMISSION PLANT ADDITIONS UNIT 1 3.100 3.100 3.100 3.100 3.100 3.100 3.100 3.100 3.100 3.100 3.100 2 124 134 136 134 136 134 134 136 134 136 134 F. TAXES PROD. PLANT INFLATED VALUES 130 178 lS5 Z41 250 260 270 280 292 345 3'59 TOTAL ('11000) 1979 DOLLARS 111.308 111.318 115.670 11'5.669 115.670 120.019 I::W.019 120.020 120.018 124. :370 124.368 INFLATED VALUES 171.617 171.49~ ISO. 103 180.0'?9 lS0.103 189.938 199.938 189.943 189.938 201 t 454 201.448 4. FIXED COST (101000) INFLATED VALUES A. DEBT SERVICE 1-EXISTING 241 Z41 ::::41 241 241 241 241 241 241 241 241 2. ADDITIONS SUBTOTAL 2Y. 6.705 ~" 700 7.044 7.044 7.044 7.437 7.437 7,437 7.437 7.898 7.898 5X 10.09~ 10.083 10.614 10.614 10.614 11.215 11.21~ 11.21'5 11.21~ 11.918 11.918 7X 12.945 12.931> 13.601 13.601 13.601 14.361 14.361 14.361 14,361 1'5.2~0 1'5.250 91. 15.862 15.8'51 16.665 16.66~ 16.665 17.596 17,5'?6 17.596 17.596 18.686 18.685 B. INSURANCE 9:57 995 1.096 1,130 1. 175 1.299 1.340 1.3<:14 1. 'ISO 1,59'" 1.663 , I .. . , , , . r • 5-B 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1990. 1997 1999 1999 2000 TOTAL FIXED COST ("1000) 27-8.033 8.114 8.550. a~b~6 8.710 9,227 9.288 9.352 9.420 10.083 10.10.1 57-11.423 11.502 12.120. 12,226 12.280 13.00'5 13.066 13.130 13.198 14.103 14.181 77-14.273 14.350 15.113 15.213 15.267 16.1'S1 16.212 16.276 16.344 17.435 17.513 97-17.190 17.265 180177 18.277 18.331 19.380. 19.447 19.511 19.'579 20.871 20.948 5. PRODUCTl ON COST ( .. tOOO) INFLATED VALUES A. OPERATION AND MAINT 1. DIESEL 307 396 412 429 446 .464 576 599 623 b4S 0.74 2. HYDRO 1.365 1.529 1.705 1.794 1.866 1.941 2.018 2,099 2.183 2.270 2.361 B. FUEL AND LUBE OIL TOTAL PRODUCTION COST ($1000) 1.672 1.925 2.117 2~223 2,312 2.405 2,594 2.698 2.806 2.918 3.035 TOTAL ANNUAL COST (stOOO) 27-9.705 10.039 10.673 10.879 11.022 11.632 11.882 12.050 12,,226 13.001 13.196 5~ 13.095 13.427 14.243 14.449 14.592 IS.410 15.660 15.828 16.004 17.021 17.216 77-15.945 16.275 17.230 17.436 17.579 18.556 18.806 18.974 19.150 20.353 20.548 97-18.862 19.190 20.294 20.500 20.643 21.791 22.041 22.209 22.385 23.789 23.983 ENERGY REQUIREMENTS -Mt..IH 108.353 116.799 125.270 126.800 126.800 126.600 126.800 126.800 126.800 126.800 126.800 MILLS/KWH 2Y. 90 86 85 86 87 92 94 95 96 103 104 Sr. 121 115 114 114 115 1~'" 124 125 126 134 136 7''1.. 147 139 138 138 139 146 148 1'50 1'51 161 lc-2 on. 174 164 lc-2 162 163 172 174 175 177 IS8 189 C. PRESENT t..IORTH ANNUAL COST (SlOOO) 2r. 4.611 4,457 4,429 4,21"? 3.99~ 3.940 3,762 3,~6S 3.381 3.360 3.187 5% 6,221 '5.962 ~J910 '5.604 ~,:S9 5.220 4.9'58 4.683 4,425 4,,3,?Q 4.158 7'f. 7.'575 7,::6 7.1'5<) 6.762 6.371 b.~36 5.?53 5,614 '5,2'?5 5,2¢O 4.9c-3 9)(. 8.961 8.521 8,421 7.950 7.482 7.381 6.978 6.'571 6.190 6.148 5,792 O. ACCLIMlIL. ANN. COST (stOOO) ::2% 74.980 85.019 95.692 106.'571 117.593 129,,225 141.107 153.157 165.393 179.384 191.580 51-92.446 105.873 I~~" 116 134.'56'5 149.157 164.567 180.227 196.05S 212.059 229 .. 080 246.296 7Y. 107.096 123.371 140.601 158.<)37 175,616 194.172 21:";,,978 231.952 251,102 27104'55 292.003 <:>"t, 122.114 141.304 161.599 182.09:3 .202.741 2::::4,532 246.573 268,792 291.167 314.956 338.9J9 E. ACCUMULATED PRESENT \.IORTH ANNUAL COST ($1000) 2% 48.120 52,577 57.006 61.2::::5 o~.2'~O 69.160 72,9~2 76.487 79.868 83.2~8 96.415 5:1. 57.827 c-3.789 69.699 75.303 SO. 592 8'5.612 90.770 -~5.4S3 99,878 104.277 108.43'5 7~ 65.956 73.182 80.332 97.094 9').46.5 99.7'51 10'5.704 111.318 116.613 121.873 1:26,$36 '04 74.299 82.820 9!. Z41 99.191 106·673 114.0'54 121.032 127.603 133.793 139.941 14'5,733 5-B 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1999 1999 2000 F'. ACCUI1 PRES WORTH OF' EN ERG V HILLS/KWH 2% 1.038 1.076 1.1 11 1.144 1.176 1.207 1.237 1.26'5 1.292 1.319 1.344 SY. 1.143 1.194 1.241 1.295 1.327 1.368 1.407 1.444 1.479 1.'514 1 f '547 n 1.235 1.297 1.3'54 1.408 1.4'5S 1.507 1,554 1,,598 1.640 1.682 1.721 9% 1.331 1.404 1.471 1. '534 1. '593 1.651 1.706 1,758 1.807 1 .. 856 1.902 l I . , , I I I , , , . , . , . " •• J • , f· , APPENDIX D ENVIRONMENTAL AND OTHER COMMENTS Appendix 0 -Bethel APA012/S3 APPENDIX 0-1 LETTER FROM STATE OF ALASKA DEPARTMENT OF FISH AND GAME January 23, 1980 Robert W. Retherford Associates P. O. Box 6410 Anchorage, Alaska 99502 Attention Dora L. Gropp, P.E. Gentlemen: 3D RASPBERRY ROAD ANCHORAGE 1f1512 Re: Assessment of Fish and Wildlife Impacts -Kisaralik Hydroelectric Development A hydroelectric dam at the Kisaralik River Lower Falls (Golden Gate Falls) would exclude forty-five to fifty (45-50) miles of mainstem spawning habitat from use by king, chum, and silver salmon. Another thirty (30) miles of spawning habitat in tributaries would be excluded from use by chum salmon. Approximately 10,000 chums, 500 kings, and unknown numbers of silver salmon spawn in the Kisaralik River and its tributaries above the lower falls annually. Lake trout, rainbow trout, Dolly Varden, and grayling are also present and spawning and rearing habitats for these fishes would also be impacted. In addition, the impoundment would inundate caribou, moose, wolf, wolverine, grizzly bear, and black bear habitats. Numerous raptor nesting sites along the Kisaralik River would probably be lost. Of course, you understand that this assessment of impacts is only general in nature. To precisely quantify numbers of fish and wildlife affected would take additional studies as well as more specific design information. In addition, the Fish and Wildlife Coordination Act requires that the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service be consulted along with the Alaska Department of Fish and Game for the purpose of identifying and minimizing fish and/or wildlife losses and providing for mitigation of losses. In order to propose studies, make assessments, etc., the Department requires ample lead time and the cooperation of the consultant or design parties to supply us with ample background information. We expect that you will furnish us with copies of your feasibility studies as they are completed as well as any plans or specifications. We would also appreciate a description of the schedule you are following in the process of development of these sites. Retherford Associates - 2 - January 23, 1980 We expect to have cursory assessments for the rest of these sites prepared shortly and will transmit them to you as they become available. If you have any questions or comments, please feel free to contact us (telephone 344-0541). ~J Thomas J. Arminski Habitat Biologist Habitat Protection Section .. .. .. .' .. .. II! .. • U oited States Department of the Interior BUREAU OF LAND MANAGEMENT Anchorage District Offic~ Ms. Dora L. Gropp Project Engineer 4700 East 72ud Avenue . Anchorage, Alaska· 99507 Robert W. Retherford Associates Arctic District of International Engineering Co., Inc. P.O. Box 6410 Anchorage, Alaska 99502 Dear Ms. Gropp: --"'~ ... ....-----"_. IN REPL Y RE.:FER 1'0 1275/8351. 2 Your Reference: 9703-104 UJO We offer the following comments on land status in response to your letter of January 7, 1980, concerning the reconnaissance study for potential hydroelectric power on the Kisaralik River. The proposed location of the dam is on Federal land presently managed by the Bureau of Land Management (BLM). Currently, this land is under with- drawal under Section 204(e) of the Federal Land Policy and Management Act (FLPMA). This is an emergency withdrawal invoked by Public Land Order (PLO) 5654 on November 17, 1978, for a three year period to be included as part of the proposed Yukon Delta National Wildlife Refuge. The Secretary of the Interior, after determining an emergency existed, withdrew these lands to protect resource values that would otherwise be lost with the intent of preserving all options to the Congress pending the lands final classification. The order withdrew all lands, subject to valid existing rights, from settlement, sale, entry or selection under the operation of the public land laws, withdrew all lands from the mining laws and from selection under the Alaska Statehood Act. Although the withdrawal does not specifically prohibit water resource development projects such as hydroelectric dams, we feel that with the stated intent of the withdrawal, environmental considerations and restrictions could possibly be prohibi- tive. It is also our understanding that the Kisaralik River, among others, is currently being considered for a Section 204(c) withdrawal under FLPMA. This is a 20-year withdrawal and undoubtedly would be more restrictive and would probably preclude a hydroelectric project. Further, the Kisaralik River has been proposed in legislation in both the U.S. House of Represen- tatives (HR-39) and the U.S. Senate (S-9) to be included into the Wild and Scenic River system. If either bill would pass, the Kisaralik River would be designated a Wild and Scenic River and the dam would be precluded. In the event that neither of these bills would pass, and the Kisaralik River should ultimately not be designated a Wild and Scenic River, and the hydroelectric project became a bona fide proposal, it would still require 2 development of an environmental statement assessing potential wilderness, threatened and endangered species, flood plains, wetlands, cultural re- sources and other environmental criteria. Our personal knowledge of the area indicates the Kisaralik River would probably meet the criteria for wilderness designation. The powerline from the dam to Bethel, Alaska, would be in the same situa- tion as the dam as far as land status is concerned. About 32 miles north- west (approximately the west boundary of T. 6 N., R. 66 W., Seward Meridian) along the proposed line from the dam to Bethel, the land status changes to a complex situation of Native selected and interim conveyed Native lands interspersed with Native allotments. We hope this provides you with the information you wanted concerning land status and the compatibility of the project with this land status. We would ask that you keep us informed of, and send us a copy of the recon- naissance study you are preparing for the Alaska Power Authority on the Kisaralik River. Land status and other comments concerning the Lake Tazimina hydroelectric development project will be provided by the Peninsula Resource Area under a separate cover, since that is in their area of jurisdiction. Sincerely yours, Lou Waller Area Manager McGrath Resource Area .. .. Ii<: .. • • • • • Appendix 0 -Bethel APA012/S7 APPENDIX 0-2 LETTER FROM UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERTIOR BUREAU OF LAND MANAGEMENT , Appendix 0 -Bethel APA012/S9 APPENDIX D-3 LETTER FROM CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES DON YOUNG CONCReSSMAN FOR ALL ALASKA COMMITTEES: INTERIOR AND INSULAR AFFAIRS MERCHANT MARINE AND FISHERIES QCongres£) of tbe ~lniteb ~tateS) ;FJOU~t of l\epusentatibes m~binnton, ~.(t. 20515 February 19, 1980 .Hr. Art Kennedy P.O. Box 3576 ECS Anchorage, AK 9950J Dcar Art: WASHINGTON OFFICE 1210 LO~G¥,()IlTH eUIUlUiG TELEPHONE 2Ql/22,·576S DISTRICT OFFICES F[O!Jl4L IlUJLOIHG 1\/10 u.s. COURT HOUSE 7!l1 C STIIEET:OOX l ANtHOMC£. AlASI(" 99513 TUEfIlON[ SQ1,UI·~978 F[DERAL aUILOIHG. ROO!.! 212 10112111 "VENUE. 80x 10 f'''lml.~NKS. AUS!(A 99701 Tn [PHO'IE S\)7:4SG-69<19 'l'hank you for your letter regarding the ~:'!'();Josed Kisaralik River power project. I hope that tl'.c followin~J will be of help to you. Currently, all of the Alaska lands bills pending before the Congress include all or part of the Kisaralik River in wildlife refuge status. Under 5.9, the upper Kisaralik is included as part of the Bristol SAY study ar~a. Under the Refuge Administration Act l construction of power projects is allow~d at the discretion of the secretary of the Inter ior. .~J:!.:~9h_t~~j~s dis.s:-.;_~t~ . .2~._ has not been used in th~ast, it appears that the pre-cea6·n-t-·wrrl-S9Q'ri-be setJut:..tL°·the apDrQY-ul Qr-t~LQr-_ L~k~·_.J2f:Q~ct:...._.:i~2'0diak. This can form the basis for -rn-vestiga ting the-Rlsaralik proj ect. Due to the uncertain status of the Alaska lands bills, l/ I cannot predict whether this issue vlill be covered in conference. Please keep in mind, however, that some reservations about the Kisaralik project have been expressed by fisheries managers due to the potential impact on commercial fishing. Please continue to keep me informed of your concerns on this and other matters. UY:rhm