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Home My WebLink AboutUnalaska Findings and Recommendations 1 1985-eR.OT.OS ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY 334 WEST 5th AVENUE -ANCHORAGE,ALASKA 99501 Phone:(907)276-0001 September 26,1985 Mr.Gordon S.Harrison Associate Director Office of Management and Budget Division of Strategic Planning Pouch AD Juneau,Alaska 99811 Dear Mr.Harrison: The Power Authority acknowledges the receipt of your review of the Unalaska/Dutch Harbor reconnaissance study.Even though the 30-day review period had elapsed,the cautions contained in the letter on low load growth and low fuel price escalation will be reviewed. The Power Authority Board of Directors has also adopted findings and recommendations on another project and forwarded the recommendations to the Office of Management and Budget (OMB)in accordance with AS 44,83.179.The 30-day statutory review period has also passed with no adverse comment or disapproval from OMB and,in accordance with the statute,we assume the Board's findings and recommendations are approved. On May 3,1985,the Power Authority Board of Directors adopted findings and recommendations on a reconnaissance level 20-year power supply plan for Juneau.The Board recommended continued monitoring of local load forecasts;some geotechnical, environmental,and hydrological investigations of Lake Dorothy and continuing consideration of interconnection with other load centers and supply sources after the Crater Lake expansion is fully absorbed.These were transmitted to OMB on August 1,1985 along with reports and appendices of computer printouts. We will now close out the reconnaissance phases of these prujects and proceed to incorporate the Board's recommendations irto a long range strategy. Sincerely,$LD Robert D.Heath Executive Director BP/RDH:kyn cc:Board of Directors Edwin Morris -Assoc.Executive Director/Planning R.E.Etheridge -Assoc.Executive Director/Projects 1265/461 S09 O'L.OF Fr2 "STATE OF ALASKA /"ssc. 01-A34LH PO 3OFFICEOFTHEGOVERNORJUNEAU,ALastatvoeh 1985”"ALASKA POWER AUTHOR;OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET THORITY DIVISION OF STRATEGIC PLANNING September 18,1985 Mr.Robert D.Heath Executive Director Alaska Power Authority 334 West 5th Avenue Anchorage,AK 99501 Dear Mr.Heath: This letter conveys the findings of the Office of Manage- ment and Budget (OMB)regarding its review of the Unalaska/Dutch Harbor Reconnaissance Study conducted by the Alaska Power Authority (APA).The review was conducted under the terms of AS 44.83.179,which requires OMB to review APA energy reconnaissance studies. Our review essentially finds that the Unalaska/Dutch Harbor study complies with the requirements of AS 44.83.177, the statute governing conduct of APA energy reconnaissance studies.Thus,although the 30-day review period specified under AS 44.83.179(c)has been allowed to lapse,the review confirms the appropriateness of approval for the study's findings and recommendations.aa Specifically,we find that APA's assessment of Unalaska's energy requirements was based on a reasonable and objective application of analytic criteria.In this respect,the assessment fairly reflects the range and respective_ economic benefits of the various power project alterna- tives available to the Unalaska/Dutch Harbor community. OMB does recommend,however,that the feasibility study now under way for Unalaska/Dutch Harbor include special analysis of the low growth/low fuel price escalation scenario,as it is the one scenario in whith the preferred(geothermal)alternative might not be optimal.We feel that this scenario warrants detailed study not onlybecauseoftheuncertaintysurroundingthefactorswhich may determine future load growth in Unalaska/Dutch Harbor, but also particularly in view of recent downward revisions in the outlook for fuel prices. - Robert D,.«wucath -2-September 18,1985 In concurrence with the APA Board of Directors,OMB also recommends that staff be judicious in the use of funds required for the feasibility study,particularly regarding options for conducting the economic analysis portion of the study. If you have any questions,please don't hesitate to contact me. Sincerely, er dtan SS Gordon S.Harrison Associate Director GSH/JF/dmc/86C-11 CORRESPONDENCE DISTRIBUTION ACTION:"NFORMAT'UORN:E.Morns DATE REC'D:PATE DUE: 58.Ol.CF ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY 334 WEST 5th AVENUE -ANCHORAGE,ALASKA 99501 Phone:(907)277-7641 (907)276-0001 May 20,1985 Mr.Gordon Harrison,Director Office of Management and Budget Pouch A Juneau,Alaska 99811 Dear Mr.Harrison: At its May 3,1985 meeting,the Alaska Power Authority Board of Directors approved the enclosed Findings and Recommendations for the Unalaska/Dutch Harbor Reconnaissance Study.The Findings and Recommendations are being submitted to OMB in accordance with the provisions of AS 44,83.179,under which OMB has the authority to approve or disapprove a reconnaissance study.In the event of disapproval,the reconnaissance study must be returned to the Power Authority with a comprehensive statement of the reasons for disapproval.The study is considered approved if disapproval by OMB is not received within 30 days of this submittal (Sec.44,83.179(c)). If you have any questions concerning this matter,please contact me or Ed Morris,Associate Executive Director of Planning. Ahold”obert D.Cfett Executive Director DDC/RDH/amh cc:Lee Nunn Ed Morris rent Petrie Dave Denig-Chakroff Proj.Code:3g File Code:_7gH- 9467/389 a.Date:ES le:fLoeeee rere SV.U7-OF MEMORANDUM State of Alaska TO: FROM: Lee R.Nunn,Chairman pate:May 2,1985 Board of Directors FILE NO: TELEPHONE NO: Loren H.Lounsbury,Ch supsect:Action Item:Approval of Planning Committee Draft Unalaska Reconnaissance Finding & Recommendations Including a $640,000 Feasibility Study Request. The Planning Committee of the Alaska Power Authority Board of Directors met and considered the staff request for Power Authority approval of Draft Findings and Recommendations for the Unalaska Reconnaissance Studyandallocationof$640,000 to conduct a geothermal power system feasibility study.The Planning Committee met in Juneau at 1:00 P.M.on May 2,1985 in the 9th floor conference room of the Department of Commerce and Economic Development.Committee members present included Mr.Harrison,and myself.Mr.Allison of the Board was also present and participated in the discussion.Mr.Hufman was excused. The Planning Committee was unanimous in its recommendation that the draft be approved by the Board.The Unalaska Reconnaissance Findings and Recommendations point out the complexity of developing a power system plan for the City of Unalaska.Future growth in Unalaska/Dutch Harbor and resulting electrical requirements of the industrial sector not currently supplied by the municipal power system warrant further study to determine the feasibility of pursuing development of the Makushin geothermal resource on Unalaska Island.The Committee finds that the staff has adequately evaluated alternatives for electrification plans for Unalaska/Dutch Harbor.It recommends that the Draft Reconnaissance Findings and Recommendation be approved by the full Board and that$640,000 be reserved in the Rural Feasibility account for an Unalaska feasibility study.However,staff are specifically directed to be judicious in the use of the funds required for the study based on concerns expressed by Mr.Harrison.One method might be by performing economic analysis in-house rather than by contract. Because Unalaska is one of the named communities in SLA82,Chapter 90, Sec.6,line 11,funding for the Unalaska geothermal will be taken from internal account #490 and no additional request will be made for feasibility funding. If approved by the full Board,the Unalaska Reconnaissance Study and thePowerAuthorityFindingsandRecommendationwillbetransmittedtotheOfficeofManagementandBudget(OMB)in accordance with AS 44.83.179. OMB has 30 days to approve or disapprove the reconnaissance study. LHL/SR/amh 9287/382 6.0 °/.YTeyi. APPROVAL OF FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS FOR THE UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR RECONNAISSANCE STUDY A,Action Item Consideration and transmittal of the Findings and Recommenda- tions of the Unalaska/Dutch Harbor Reconnaissance Study, includinga recommendation to allocate $640,000 from the ruralfeasibilityappropriationtoconductadetailedfeasibility study of the geothermal power alternative. B.Background 1. 9191/367/1 A Reconnaissance Study of Energy Requirements and Alter- natives for Unalaska/Dutch Harbor was initiated in August 1983 by a consultant under contract to the Power Authori- ty.After reviewing the consultant's draft report, submitted in April 1984,Power Authority staff decided toexpandthestudytoincludetheresultsof(a)the Power Authority's geothermal drilling and exploration programand(b)an energy load study being conducted by the City of Unalaska.With the agreement of the consultant,Power Authority staff completed the study using methods and data from the consultant's draft report.The results are contained in a Power Authority report entitled Unalaska/Dutch Harbor Reconnaissance Study Findings.andRecommendation,April 1985. The Power Authority recently completed its exploration and drilling program for geothermal resource assessmentonUnalaskaIsland.The results of this program have confirmed the existence of an extremely productive geothermal reservoir twelve miles west of the City of Unalaska.If converted to electrical energy,the reser- voir is capable of meeting even the most optimistic load forecasts for the island in the foreseeable future. The reconnaissance study used net present value calcu- lations to compare alternative power system plans for Unalaska based on three possible population and load growth scenarios.It analyzed three potential hydroelec- tric power systems and various sizes of two potential geothermal power systems and compared them to a diesel system base case.The two geothermal power system technologies were selected for analysis on the basis of the characteristics of the geothermal reservoir dis- covered and tested under the exploration and drilling program.A sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine the effect of various discount rates and fuel escalation rates on the economics of the alternatives. The reconnaissance analysis indicates that a geothermal power system using diesel generators for backup and peaking is the most economical source of electricity for the community of Unalaska/Dutch Harbor.The study recommends initiation of a detailed feasibility study of the geothermal alternative. Unalaska is named in SLA 1981,Chapter 90,Section 6 as a community for which funds are allocated for a rural power system feasibility study. The City of Unalaska,which owns and operates the local electric utility,has passed a resolution requesting the Alaska Power Authority to conduct a feasibility study for a geothermal power facility on the island. C.Issues 1. 9191/367/2 Industrial electric loads,particularly those associated with the seafood processing industry,account for the greatest and most variable proportion of the total electric load on the island.Currently,most of theindustrialloadisnotprovidedbythecityutility, although interties have been constructed to allow for future supply from a central plant.Actual electrical energy usage is poorly monitored by the industry.A feasibility study should include a detailed analysis of the existing industrial loads in the market area and should formulate an industrial load duration curve. Many factors are apt to affect the future electric loadgrowthatUnalaska.Some major ones include:(a)the future of the Bering Sea commercial fisheries and the potential for establishment of a bottomfish industry at Unalaska,(b)whether the future trend in seafood pro- cessing is toward shore-based or floating processors,(c) the potential for broadening the industrial base with support facilities to service Bering Sea oil and gas exploration and production efforts,and (d)the potential for other projects and activities likely to increase future electric loads,such as the proposed airport runway extension,the proposed establishment of a U.S. Coast Guard search and rescue facility at Dutch Harbor, and the future of the tourism industry on the island. These and other factors affecting load growth should be analyzed in a feasibility study. 9191/367/3 Potential industrial customers,currently unserved by thecityutility,have expressed their interest in purchasingelectricpowerfromthecityifitcanbeofferedateconomicrates.A feasibility study should analyze theindustry's current cost of power production and thecity's anticipated cost of production with a geothermalpowerfacilitytodeterminethepotentialforaddingtheseindustrialuserstothecitysystem.Addingindustrialcustomerstothecitysystemwouldcreateasignificantlevelofunuseddieselgenerationcapacityontheisland.A feasibility study should analyze thispotentialcapacityandthecity's avoided cost to deter-mine the possibility of utilizing this diesel capacityforbackupandpeakingpurposes. The City of Unalaska is moving its electric power planttoanewlocationwhichisnotconnectedtotheexistingwasteheatsystem.A feasibility study should analyzethepotentialforbuildingawasteheatsystematthenew location and the effect this would have on the economics of a geothermal power facility.It should also analyzethepotentialforusingtheeffluentfromageothermalpowerplantfordirectusessuchasheatinggreenhousesorfish-hatchery rearing ponds. Numerous geothermal power system technologies have beendevelopedandusedworldwide,while still other proto-types have been extensively tested and proved successful.A feasibility study should carefully analyze the range ofavailabletechnologyand,using the data obtained from the exploration and drilling program,determine the most suitable geothermal technology for the conditions at Unalaska,considering reservoir characteristics,cost, and reliability. A geothermal power facility would need to be sited near the resource,which is located twelve miles west of the community in rugged terrain across a_three-mile, deep-water bay.A feasibility study should analyze the most suitable road and transmission line routes and conceptual designs best suited to local topographic and weather conditions., The Unalaska geothermal site is located in an active seismic region and in close proximity to an active volcano.In addition,any development in such ruggedterrainwouldrequireattentiontoslopestability.Afeasibilitystudyshouldincludegeotechnicalandgeolog- ic engineering investigations to assess hazards as well as foundation conditions and construction material availability. 8.Geochemical investigations have revealed that the geothermal fluids produced at the site are relatively benign.A feasibility study should analyze streamflow and water quality standards to determine appropriate geothermal effluent disposal practices. D.Costs As shown below,the estimated cost of a geothermal power system feasibility study for Unalaska is $640,000.The funds for this project would be allocated from the rural community feasi Secti Load bility appropriation authorized by SLA 1981,Chapter 90, on 6. forecast and cost of power studies $50,000 Geothermal power system technology assessment and cost estimates 70,000 Waste heat and ancillary geothermal energy use assessment 20,000 and transmission routeRoad and conceptual design analysis and cost estimates 150,000 Geotechnical and geologic engineering studies 200 ,000 Environmental and water 008 quality studies 50-000 "77 Economic evaluation 1095600 <%,9°°$640,000 E.Options 1.Approve the Findings and Recommendations for the Unalaskareconnaissancestudyandtheallocationof$640,000 to conduct a geothermal power system feasibility study.The study and findings and recommendations would be submittedtotheOfficeofManagementandBudget(OMB)in accor- dance with AS 46.83.179.OMB has 30 days to approve or disapprove the study. 2.Disapprove the Findings and Recommendations and refer to 9191/367/4 staff for revisions. F.Recommendation Adopt Option 1:Approve the Findings and Recommendations and allocation of funds for a feasibility study. 9191/367/5 CITY OF UNALASKAP.O.BOX 89 UNALASKA,ALASKA 99685 (907)581-1251 "Capital of the Aleutians” UNALASKA,ALASKA CITY OF UNALASKA UNALASKA,ALASKA RESOLUTION 84-64 A RESOLUTION SUPPORTING GEOTHERMAL POWER IN UNALASKA WHEREAS:The Alaska Power Authority has conducted an exploration of Geothermal potential on Makushin Volcano,and WHEREAS:That exploration led to the discovery of the Reeder Geothermal Field,and WHEREAS:It appears that the energy in that field is sufficienttogenerateelectricity|for Unalaska.NOW THEREFORE BE IT RESOLVED that Tie Onalaska City Council urges the Alaska Power Authority to4+-ito,conduct a study of the feasibility of commercial developmentanolthecReederGeothermalFieldonMakuskin, PASSED «AND APPROVED THIS 11TH DAY OF OCTOBER,1984 BY THECITY:COUNCIL 'OF THE CITY OF UNALASKA,ALASKA.itefe.zeh oe pe PoSySesewes,ot Lh A ee tt tadWilliamFisher Mayor City.Clerk UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR RECONNAISSANCE STUDY FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS Summary SUMMARY STATEMENT A geothermal power system using diesel generators for backup and> peaking appears to be the most economical source of electricity for the community of Unalaska/Dutch Harbor.It is recommended that the Alaska Power Authority conduct a detailed feasibility study of this energy alternative. METHODS The reconnaissance study uses net present value calculations to compare alternative power system plans for Unalaska based on three possible population and load growth scenarios.It analyzes three potential hydroelectric power systems proposed by the U.S.Corps of Engineers,Alaska District,and it evaluates various sizes of two potential geothermal power systems.The two geothermal power sys- tem technologies were selected for analysis on the basis of the characteristics of the geothermal reservoir discovered and tested under the Alaska Power Authority's Unalaska Geothermal Exploration Program.The alternative plans are based on the assumption that diesel generators will be used to provide power demand that cannot be met by the alternative system.A 40-year net present value of each of the alternatives analyzed is compared to the net present value of a total diesel power system that would meet the demands of the respective growth scenario over the same period.The analysis uses a 3.5%discount rate and a 1985 fuel price of 87.6 cent/gallon which decreases 4%the first year,remains constant for the next two years,and then increases by 2%annually for the remainder of the 20-year planning period.A sensitivity analysis is conducted to determine the economic effect of a 4.5%discount rate and the following fuel escalation rates: 1986 1987 1988 1989-2005 Low -4%-4%-4%0% Medium -4%0%0%+2% High 0%02%0%+3 5% ASSUMPTIONS Low Growth Scenario For the purposes of this analysis,it ts assumed,under the low growth scenario,that the population of Unalaska/Dutch Harbor wil] 9197/369/F1 Page 1 increase at a rate of 2 percent annually for the next twenty years.(Over the last twenty years,the net population increase reflected a 9 percent annual growth.)Residential,commercial,and city ser- vices loads are calculated,based on this 2 percent annual in- crease,and reflect a 2.7 percent annual increase in non-industrial loads. The industrial load forecast,consisting primarily of the seafood processing industry,is based on past industrial loads on the is- land and recent projections with respect to the fisheries industry.-Due to a coincident decline in the population of several species of shellfish,the commercial fisheries landings at Unalaska/Dutch Har- bor decreasec significantly between 1980 and 1982 but have remained relatively level since 1982.The industrial electric loads fol- lowed this decline and continued to decrease through 1984 with the closing of several seafood processing plants.Consequently,there are numerous industrial facilities on the island currently not in use.Recent fisheries studies indicate that the shellfish popu- lations have reached a minimum and have begun a recovery.The in- dustrial load forecast in this study is based on an industrial.load survey done in 1983 after the decline in the fisheries landings but prior to the most recent processor closings.The low growth sce- nario assumes that the industrial load will return to its 1983 lev- el by 1995 and remain at that level through 2005.This is con- sidered a minimal increase,even with a slow recovery of the fisheries in the region. Moderate Growth Scenario The moderate growth scenario assumes a 4 percent annual increase in the population of Unalaska/Dutch Harbor for twenty years.This in- crease may be the result of a moderate rate of recovery of the fisheries in the region or the broadening of the industrial base with the establishment of oil and gas production services or a proposed U.S.Coast Guard search and rescue facility.Based on this population growth,the calculated non-industrial electric load increases by 4.8 percent annually for the 20-year planning period. The industrial load is assumed to return to its 1983 level by 1990 .and to continue to increase an additional 50 percent by 1995 where it remains through 2005. High Growth Scenario The high growth scenario assumes the establishment of a low-level bottomfish industry at Unalaska beginning in 1986.This would cause the population to increase at a rate of 11 percent annually for the 20-year planning period.It would cause non-industrial loads to increase by 11.8 percent annually.Industrial loads are based on the assumption that 25 percent of the bottomfish would be processed at Unalaska/Dutch Harbor.This bottomfish load is added 9197/369/F1 Page 2 to the moderate growth scenario industrial load to arrive at the high growth total industrial load. DESCRIPTION OF ALTERNATIVES The study analyzes various sizes uf two geothermal systems:a total flow system and a binary system.These two geothermal processes were selected for analysis because they both exhibit high efficien- cy with two-phase (liquid and vapor)geothermal fluids,which is characteristic of the geothermal resource discovered at Unalaska,- and because they are both cost competitive at the small unit sizes needed to meet the power demand at Unalaska.The total flow system separates the two-phase fluid into steam and water which is piped to a specially designed nozzle where it is recombined in specified Droportions to maximize the thermal and kinetic energy to drive an impulse turbine.The binary system separates the two-phase fluid and uses the water to preheat and evaporate a binary-fluid such as isobutane or freon.The geothermal steam then superheats the bina- ry vapor which is used to drive a turbine generator.The sizes of the various geothermal alternatives analyzed are given below. The study also analyzes two small hydroelectric systems that have been proposed by the U.S.Corps of Engineers.One is located on the Shaishnikof River and is designed to produce 700 KW and the other,on Pyramid Creek,is rated at 260 KW.The analysis evalu- ates each of these proposals as they would stand alone and also an-alyzes them together as a combined hydroelectric system. Alternative A--Total Fiow Geothermal System Alternative No.Of Units Size (MW)Ai i 2.1 A(2)2 4.2 A(3)3 6.3 A(4)4 8.4 A(5)5 10.5 A(6)6 12.6 Alternative B--Binary Geothermal System Alternative No.Of Units Size (MW)B(1)3.31 B(2)2 6.70 B(3)3 10.05 B(4)4 13.40 9197/369/F1 ©Page 3 Alternative C--Hydroelectric System Alternative Watershed Size (MWC(t)Shaishnikof ./ C(2)Pyramid .26 C(3)Both -96 RESULTS The results of the study are summarized in the following graphs which depict the population and electric load forecasts used and illustrate the net present value and cost-to-cost ratios of the op- timum alternatives for each growth scenario and the diesel base case.The analysis shows that,for the low and moderate growth scenarios,a two unit (4.2 MW)total flow geothermal system,using diesel generators for backup and peaking,is the most economical source of electric power for the Unalaska/Dutch Harbor market area. For the high growth scenario,a five-unit (10.5 MW)total flow geothermal system is most economical.The sensitivity analysis in- dicates that these conclusions would change only under a condition of low growth and low fuel escalation. RECOMMENDATION Based on these findings,it is recommended that the Alaska Power Authority conduct a detailed feasibility study of a geothermal pow- er system at Unalaska/Dutch Harbor. 9197/369/F1 Page 4 POPULATION(Thousands)a ENERGYUSE(MWh-yr)(Thousands)UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POPULATION HISTORIC AND FORECAST TRENDS 1965-2005 HISTORIC PORECAST 0.0 Tr |FYrTyyY TY T fy F FT Ff tT Tt Y TT TTT TTP Pt Tt totter ott 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 YEAR LOW GROWTH +MODERATE GROWTH ©HIGH GROWTH ELECTRIC LOAD FORECAST 1985-2005 LOW GROWTH SCENARIO100 90 + 80 70 + 60 - 50 4 40 4 30 4 TOTAL LOAD 20 4 INDUSTRIAL LOAD to 4 ; NON-INDUSTRIAL LOAD pe 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 YEAR ENERGYUSE(MWhvyr)(Thousands)ENERGYUSE(MWh/yr)(Thousands)100 100 ELECTRIC LOAD FORECAST MODERATE GROWTH SCENARIO 1985-2005 4 7 eee 4 TOTAL LOAD INDUSTRIAL LOAD 4 a, NON-INDUSTRIAL LOAD --Y -T r -Y r 1 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 YEAR HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO TOTAL LOAD 7 INDUSTRIAL LOAD -NON-INDUSTRIAL LOAD sr ry ,Sr] 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 NSSSE 78.2 77.7 SSX©Q090°2QQ ssss"s3csv° 95.3 RLA© °"ngyggy 3ESS Say £SOV VSQ0w LOW GROWTH SCENARIO EE XAQVAAAYFRRQO XAQQ COST OF POWER SYSTEM ALTERNATIVES na enee n° ©|(SUOTIITA) (82¥lI0q €681) ZAIVA LINASEUd LAN "B(2)"A c(t)c(2)Cc{3)<é A(3)"A ALTERNATIVES LOW GROWTH SCENARIO COST/COST RATIOS 7b=} EWC EU W™ WwW WéWsWMWYae\\MWCWANV NMAOMOW +HONeeeenrakaseeaSe etet et ot tet ToT TOT TT aAMnoront ON aOo © 6(6 "8"9("© (8 '+ « oo oO0oO 0000 LSOO FAILWNYUALIV'LSOD ASVD AsSVvad 4 B(2) B(3)c(i)c(2)-€(3) ALTERNATIVES A(z)a(3)-s (4) POWER SYSTEM ALTERNATIVESCOSTOF 110 = MODERATE GROWTH SCENARIO 100 97.3 "SLE LLL s LLLALAA --_ B07a7,oOmn”Oomn iis,LLLEL AA LLL ALALA.SLL ELL LLL LILLE0 ©é ive] Ve) " ”N _ CEUOSCTITTIG) (fa¥TIOd C861) ANIVA LNASSUd LAN TEDISTTDLLLLLL EEELLL ”va CeCOOPES PPPS, 4. LLL EELLELLL BASE CASE ALLL ELLA c(1)c(2)c(3)B(1)B(2)B(3)A(4)A(2)A(3) ALTERNATIVES COSTYCOST RATIOS MODERATE GROWTH SCENARIO T q q QQaAwtmM©Ceeerenrererer)onaeeeen eon+MNHO o 6(66 5 6(8"8«6 LSODO FAAILLVNURLIV'LSOD ASVD asva > c(2)-€(3)c(1)B(:)B(2)(3)A(2)=A(3)-s A(4) ALTERNATIVES (1983Dollars)(Millions)PRESENTVALUENETBASECASECOST/ALTERNATIVECOSTCOST OF POWER SYSTEM ALTERNATIVES 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 BASE CASE meer ee HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO qT q A(4)A(5)A(6) ) B(2)B(3)B(4)c(i)c(2)(3) ALTERNATIVES COST/YCOST RATIOS RIGH GROWTH SCENARIO A(4)A(5)A(6)B(2)B(3)B(4) ALTERNATIVES SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS LOW GROWTH SCENARIO Sef AZa ily -Neea T c(3) aoaEYBSNSANSoS 4.5%DISCOUNT RATE SSX_ "S MSQYQY Ny SSSNSXN. KSSerEENLESSSAANS NOON, DESI POO ALS aN™ .N» N2WSNSRVQS.NY"4 c(3) FUEL ESCALATION 27}MEDIUM LsPiNeinsASSONSNSSSONSSOweNDDAdOONSSN iy, 3.5%DISCOUNT RATE Sse -- NRSS: wea Sos REQANE NR ROS SASaNNS ESS NeNN 3 2 foo) nw© 100 -p---- °o(spursnouy) 0 a (S2¥11I0Q E861) ANIVA LNASSUd LAN a(t)BASE CASE AQ)Bt)BASE CASE A(2) HIGH RATE Sete7)Low SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS MODERATE GROWTH SCENARIO 3.5%DISCOUNT RATE 4.5%DISCOUNT RATE LL c(3) --o NSW Li B(1) TT BASE CASE A(2) T- c(3) FUEL ESCALATION RATE IXEXE[ECG B(1) AXSGCE_OGGAXGCGGGqhnophhofl1 VA, PYPY * pg CL AXQ 0 (spussnouL) (eaetted €86T) ANIVA LNASSUd LAN BASE CASE A(2) Swat HIGHMEDIUM4iLOWeA{7 NETPRESENTVALUE(1983Dollars)(Thousands)SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO 210 200 - 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 -; "”DISCOUNT RATE xNNOSOy'.NSNNS4.5%DISCOUNT RATE XCQQ@v60 50 CLA40Vy,30 20 10 0 H H T T q BASE CASE A(5)B(3)c(3)BASE CASE A(5)B(3)c(3) FUEL ESCALATION RATE YZ]Low MEDIUM HIGH Alternatives Base Case -Diesel-powered generator systemA(5)-Total flow geothermal system (five units)B (3)-Binary geothermal system (three units)C (3)-Hydroelectric system (Shaishnikof and Pyramid) Fuel Escalation Rates 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989-2005 Low 5.876/gal -4%-4% 4%0% Medium $.876/aa) 4%%4 +2% High §.876/qal 0%%.0%+3.5% C5,OVLOF Unalaska/Dutch Harbor Reconnaissance Study Findings and Recommendations April 1985 UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR RECONNAISSANCE STUDY FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS David N.Denig-Chakroff Project Manager April 1985 Brent N.Petrie,Director EdwinL.Morris,Associate Power Systems Planning Executive Director,Planning Robert D.Heath Executive Director ©1985 ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES wo..ccccc ccc ccc ccc cn er ccnccecc ccc cecceeccseves iii LIST OF FIGURES 1....ccc ccc ccc ccc ccc cnn c eee r een eecesccces iv PREFACE 2...ccccccccccccccccccvcecscccsccccscnce cece cee ee scene Vv I.OBJECTIVE AND METHODS ...........cece eee w cece nc eeeseeeces 1 TI.COMMUNITY PROFILE ...ccc ccc ccc cccc cece ccevccccnsccescces 6 ITI.EXISTING POWER FACILITIES AND LOADS ........ccccccccseees 11 IV.GROWTH SCENARIOS AND LOAD FORECASTS ......cccccsccccscees 16 V.DESCRIPTION OF BASE CASE AND ALTERNATIVES ........eesee0ee 28 VI.RESULTS OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS ........ccccccccccvcvccccaces 38 VII.CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS .......occ e ccc cec scenes 48 REFERENCES .....cccecccccsccece eee cee cc ce see rece cee ccesececes 52 APPENDIX A:Population and Electric Load Forecasts .........0.-54 APPENDIX B:Energy Production and Power System Plans ..........65 APPENDIX C:Annual Costs and Economic Analyses ..ccecsccccscecs 107 APPENDIX D:Construction Costs of Power System Alternatives «.-150 APPENDIX E:Sensitivity Analyses .......dene eneeeeeceeeeeeeees 163 ii aon>eee°LIST OF TABLES Unalaska/Dutch Harbor Industrial Loads .......ccccccccces Unalaska/Dutch Harbor City Services Load,1984 .......... Annual Operation and Maintenance Costs of Base Case and Geothermal Power Systems ......eeeececccccesees Summary of Total Flow Geothermal Alternatives ........... Summary of Binary Geothermal Alternatives ......eccecees . Summary of Hydroelectric Alternatives .........see cceeene Fuel Escalation Rates ......wee c nec c eee e cen c ee cecceccees LIST OF FIGURES 1.Map showing the location of Unalaska/Dutch Harbor ........7 2.Historic and forecast population trends,1965-2005 .......8 3.Commercial fishing activity,1976-1984 ......ccc eee wees ee 8 4,Low growth scenario electric load forecast ...........wees 20 5.Electric demand forecast for three growth scenarios ......20 6.Moderate growth scenario electric load forecast ......osee 24 7.High growth scenario electric load forecast ......eseeeees 27 8.Low growth scenario economic analysis ..........eee ec eens 40 9.Moderate growth scenario economic analysis ......esseceeee 41 10.High growth scenario economic analysiS .....sssccescceecee 42 11.Low growth scenario sensitivity analysiS ....cccesceccesee 44 12.Moderate growth scenario sensitivity analysis .......06..-45 13.High scenario sensitivity analysis ..........ceeeesccceeee 45 KEY TO FIGURES ......cccecccccccccces ceceesccecccccees ee ceecceee OS” iv PREFACE This report presents the results of a reconnaissance study of energy requirements and alternatives for Unalaska/Dutch Harbor. The Alaska Power Authority initiated the reconnaissance study in August 1983,and a consultant,under contract to the Power Author- ity,submitted a preliminary draft report in April 1984.In the summer of 1984,the Power Authority obtained the results of flow tests and reservoir analyses from its geothermal exploration program on Unalaska Island.These results revealed a significantly more productive resource than had previously been anticipated.It became apparent that the scope of work originally contracted for the reconnaissance study was insufficient to address the full range of alternatives available to the community.Power Authority staff expanded and completed the study using methods and data provided in the consultant's draft. SECTION I OBJECTIVE AND METHODS The objective of the reconnaissance study was to determine the least expensive method of meeting the future energy needs of the Unalaska/Dutch Harbor community.This was accomplished by project- ing probable levels of future power demand in the community and conducting an economic analysis to compare various alternative power systems capable of meeting that demand. The first step in the analysis was to develop a community profile. This profile was used as a basis on which to make population and energy load forecasts.Past population trends and employment activity were analyzed to determine what aspects of the community's development have had a significant effect on its economy.In Unalaska,it was determined that commercial fishing and crabbing and seafood processing have had the greatest effect on population and economic growth in the recent past.This trend is likely to continue in the foreseeable future.In addition,numerous other industries and activities are developing or are proposed for the community that could have a significant effect on future growth. The community profile also provides a 1985 population estimate on which to base a population projection. 9249/377 1 The next phase of the analysis consisted of a survey of existing power generation facilities in the community as well as recent past and current electric loads.This information was analyzed with respect to the community profile in order to determine how popu- lation and economic trends affect power demand in the community. It-provided data necessary to determine the relationship between base loads and peak loads,thus allowing for the formulation of load factors for various categories of energy consumer.Finally, the power facility and load survey was used to calculate a current power demand for the community,-which could be used as a basis for future electric load forecasts. Based on the community profile and existing power loads,three community growth scenarios weré developed for a twenty-year plan- ning period from 1985 to 2005.Twenty years was considered to be the extent of time for which projections could be reasonably made. Population and electric load forecasts were developed for low, moderate,and high growth scenarios in order to analyze the effect of community growth on the economics of various alternative power systems.The low growth scenario assumed a two percent average annual population increase,no significant new industrial growth, and a slow recovery of the shellfish fishery in the region.The moderate growth scenario assumed a four percent average annual population increase,limited new industrial growth,and a moderate recovery of the shellfish fishery.The high growth scenario assumed an eleven percent average annual population increase, 9249/377 2 moderate recovery of the shellfish fishery,and the establishment of a low-level bottomfish industry in the community. Various power system options were analyzed based on power gener- ating technologies available to the community.A power system consisting of the continued use of diesel-powered generators to meet the total electric demand of the community was established as a base case with which to compare a number of alternative power systems.Two geothermal system technologies (total flow and binary)and three hydroelectric systems were analyzed as alterna- tives to the base case.For the total flow and binary geothermal systems,ten different system sizes were taken into consideration. The hydroelectric systems analyzed were based on two Corps of Engineers proposals (Shaishnikof River and Pyramid Creek).Each hydroelectric proposal was considered as a single alternative,and the construction and operation of both systems was considered as a third hydroelectric alternative.Development costs were derived for each power system option for use in the economic analysis. For the base case and each alternative technology,power system plans were developed for each of the three growth scenarios.A base case plan was developed for each scenario,consisting of the diesel capacity addition/replacement schedule that would be needed to meet the power demand of the community under the respective scenario.Six total flow geothermal plans were developed for each growth scenario,based on the installation of one to six geothermal 9249/377 3 power production units.Four binary geothermal power plans were formulated for each scenario,based on the installation of one to four binary geothermal units.Three hydroelectric power plans were developed for each growth scenario using the three hydroelectric systems proposed.The alternative power system plans assumed that diesel generators would be used to meet demands that could not be met by the alternative technology.Consequently,each alternative power system plan consisted of an alternative technology power production component and a diesel power production component. In order to encompass the life cycle of the various alternative 'technologies,power system plans were developed for a 40-year period from 1985 to 2025.Since the 20-year electric load fore- casts were terminated in 2005,the load for that year (for each scenario)was used as the annual load from 2006 to 2025 for the purpose of formulating the power system plans. Annual costs were formulated for each power system plan.These included development costs,fuel costs,and operation and mainte- nance costs (in 1983 dollars)calculated on a yearly basis for the life of the system.Fuel costs were determined on the basis of a 20-year projection of fuel escalation rates.This projection assumed that fuel prices would decrease by four percent in.the first year of analysis,remain level for the next two years,and then increase by two percent annually for seventeen years.The fuel price projected for the twentieth year was used for the 9249/377 4 remainder of the 40-year life-cycle analysis.The total life-cycle cost of each power system plan was determined by calculating the net present value of the annual costs using a 3.5 percent discount rate.A comparison of the net present values indicated the econom- ically optimum alternative for each growth scenario.The net present value of the base case divided by the net present value of each alternative gave a cost-to-cost ratio of the alternative to the base case. A sensitivity analysis was conducted on the base case and on the optimum total flow,binary,and hydroelectric alternatives for each growth scenario.The sensitivity analysis evaluated a 4.5 percent discount rate and two additional fuel escalation ratesto determine the effect they would have on the economics of the power system plans. 9249/377 5 SECTION II COMMUNITY PROFILE Unalaska Island is located in the Aleutian Archipelago,about 800 miles southwest of Anchorage (Figure 1).The City of Unalaska, consisting of the adjacent communities of Unalaska and Dutch Harbor,is situated at the northern end of the island on Unalaska 'Bay.Originally an Aleut village,Unalaska became an important crossroads for shipping and trade during the Russian occupation (1741-1867)and during the Klondike and Nome gold rushes from 1897 to 1900.Its sheltered,deep-water port made Dutch Harbor a prime location for a major naval base during World War II.Since that time,the fishing and crabbing industries have been the mainstay of Unalaska's economy.In recent years,Dutch Harbor has also become an important center of marine operations and maintenance and of bulk storage facilities servicing all of western Alaska. According to the U.S.Bureau of Census,between 1831--the first. year data are available--and 1960,the population of Unalaska varied between 200 and 400,excluding the military presence during World War II.Between 1960 and 1970,however,the growth rate averaged 4.6 percent annually and,between 1970 and 1980,it aver- 9249/377 6 TTT, =Pe etaemneesT"Wakueewn voucanoA ¥ > @ ctornenisas nesounce weer Figure 1.Map Showing the location of Unalaska/Dutch Harbor aged 14.5 percent annually (Figure 2).Alaska Department of Labor statistics from 1980 to 1983 show that the population surged between 1980 and 1981 leveling off at a population of 1,900 to 2,000.Since 1983,City officials estimate that the population has dropped to about 1,500;although,there has been no standardized survey to verify this. The recent variations in population are attributed to fluctuations in the community's major industries--commercial fisheries and seafood processing.Commercial fisheries Tandings at Unalaska/Dutch Harbor reached an all-time high in 1979 and 1980 with over 136 million pounds landed in each of those years (Figure 3).In 1981,the catch declined by nearly half and by 1982 had 9249/377 7 13.0 12.0 + 11.0 7 10.09.0 | 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0POPULATION(Thousands)4.0 - 3.0 - HISTORIC 2.0 _*° 1.0 { FORECAST 0.0 pPrerrgr gy?t tr tT Pt rit i)it TTrrrrrrrrrrrrirrrtrir tt 1965 Q LOW GROWTH 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 YEAR +MODERATE GROWTH °HIGH GROWTH Figure 2.Historic and forecast population trends,1965-2005. 150 140 - 130 - 120 4 110 - 100 -(MILLIONPOUNDS)fo]LX136.8 136.5 G0QcIWZ L OA T T T 1976 1877 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1964 YEAR 'Figure 3.Commercial fishing activity,1976-1984 (Source:U.S.Department of Commerce,NMFS,1976-1984) 9249/377 8 leveled off at approximately 47 million pounds per year,where it remained through 1984.According to the Alaska Department of Fish and Game (1985),the catch decreases were due to coincident de- clines in the Red King crab and Tanner crab populations.The Red King fishery was closed during the 1983-84 and 1984-85 seasons. Recent national Marine Fisheries Service surveys indicate the the Red King Crab populations have begun a recovery,and a 1985-86 fishing season is anticipated.In addition,the 1985 Tanner Crab catch appears to be significantly improved over recent years.Fish and Game officials cautiously accept these as signals that the commercial fisheries industry is again on the upswing and have initiated fish management practices designed to prevent such a serious decline in shellfish populations in the future. In recent years,Unalaska city officials have made a concerted effort to diversify the area economy by actively pursuing projects 'and activities that would broaden the economic base of the commun- ity.There is already a significant marine supply and maintenance service industry established on the island.Since Dutch Harbor is the only deep-water port in the state west of Kodiak,it has become a center for shipping and bulk fuel storage for all of western Alaska.The city completed a new airport terminal in 1984 and is attempting to secure funds for a proposed airport runway extension. The U.S.Coast Guard is considering Dutch Harbor as the site of a large search-and-rescue station,and the petroleum industry has stated its intention of using Unalaska as the staging area for 9249/377 9 development of Bering Sea oi]fields if hydrocarbon discoveries are made.Oi]exploration activities are currently served by facil- ities at Dutch Harbor. The potential for the greatest economic growth at Unalaska lies in the future of the Bering Sea bottomfishery.Due to its proximity to the bottomfishing grounds,its established infrastructure,and its role as a regional transportation center,Unalaska would be greatly affected by the growth of this industry.Dames &Moore (1982)estimated that the population of Unalaska/Dutch Harbor would grow from eleven to fifteen percent annually for twenty years if a bottomfish industry were established. 9249/377 10 SECTION III EXISTING POWER FACILITIES AND LOADS The City of Unalaska owns and operates the local electric utility. The utility is currently in the process of increasing generating capacity,moving the power plant,and significantly expanding the electric distribution system.These changes will enable the city to serve many industrial and commercial customers that now provide for their own electric needs. Moving the powerhouse will require the city to abandon a waste heat demonstration project installed in 1982 at the old plant.This system heats numerous public buildings including the city hall,the high school,and the public swimming pool.The waste heat project was very successful and,by the time the move is complete in September 1985,city officials estimate that payback on the system will have been achieved.Pumps and heat exchangers from the system will be salvaged for future use.Generators installed in the new powerhouse will be retrofitted for future connection to a waste heat system,although there is no immediate plan to construct a system at the new plant. 9249/377 11 All of the electric power on the island is produced by diesel powered generators.The city utility's installed capacity is currently 3.9 MW with plans to expand to 9.5 MW by 1987.A recent survey of commercial and industrial facilities that provide their own power revealed a capacity of 10.4 MW in industry-owned gener- ators on the island. Industrial electric loads,particularly those associated with the seafood processing industry,account for the largest and most variable proportion of the community's total electric load.Some of the industrial users own and operate large commercial establish- ments and residential housing complexes for which they also provide electric power.These loads have not been provided by the munic- ipal utility in the past,and electric use has been poorly moni- tored by the industry.Consequently,past and present industrial electric loads in the community are difficult to establish. The best source of data on industrial loads in the community is a survey conducted by the city in 1983 using chart recorders and operation log books of industry-owned generators.The results of the survey are shown in Table 1.Figures in Table 1 reflect loads for industrial facilities and industry-owned commercial establish- ments but do not include loads for residential complexes owned by industry.The 1983 industrial loads reflect a year of low commer- cial fishing activity at Unalaska/Dutch Harbor (Figure 3).Table 1 also contains an estimate of 1984 industrial loads which are 9249/377 12 significantly lower than the 1983 loads due to the fact that several industrial facilities either did not operate or signifi- cantly reduced their operations in 1984.These closings and curtailments of operation occurred even though the level of commer- cial fishing activity at Dutch Harbor was nearly the same in 1983 and 1984,City officials believe that the reduction in shore-based processing was due to an increase in the use of floating processors. Table 1 UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR INDUSTRIAL LOADS 1983 1984 Estimate ENERGY PEAK ENERGY PEAK USE DEMAND USE DEMAND (MWh/yr)(kW)(MWh/yr)(kW) American President Lines!526 |1,120 585 1,246 East Point Seafoods 841 860 841 860 -Pacific Pear]Seafoods®1,314 570 395 171 Pan Alaska Seafoods”3,942 1,750 790 351 Panama Marine”3,000 1,317 395 173 Sea Alaska®3,942 1,750 655 291 Standard 041:Company”438 105 460 110 Universal Seafoods?5,256 1,500 5,014 1,431 Whitney Fidalgo Seafoods”1,708 750 0 0 TOTALS 20 ,967 9,135 1 Large dock facility and storage yard. 2 Seafood processing industrial complex. 3 Seafood processing industrial complex. 4 Seafood processing industrial complex.5 Commercial shipyard for marine repairs,including machine shops and dry docks. 6 Seafood processing industrial complex. 7 Bulk fuel storage plant and dock facilities. 8 Large seafood processing industrial complex. 9 Seafood processing industrial complex. 9249/377 13 Existing commercial consumers,other than those associated with industrial operations,are connected to the city distribution system,and their demand is monitored by the municipal utility. There are currently twenty-nine such customers with a combined load of 578,400 kWh per year.Consequently,the average load for commercial consumers is 1,662 kWh per month. Municipal power demand includes the airport,a boat harbor,a city dock,street lights,and numerous additional public buildings and facilities.The current electric load for city services is con- tained in Table 2. Table 2 UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR CITY SERVICES LOAD,1984 ENERGY PEAK USE DEMAND (MWh/yr)(kW) Airport 296 75 Boat Harbor 438 200 City Dock 175 80 Street lights ,30 8 Other facilities 500 163 TOTAL 1,439 Residential loads in the community cannot be determined with absolute certainty since many residential customers are not yet connected to the city distribution system.However,the average use per residential customer on the city system is 484 kWh per 9249/377 14 month.Using this average,the current population estimate of 1,500,and assumptions concerning residential use described in Section IV of this report (page 17),a current residential load of 2,510 MWh per year is estimated. By combining the industrial,commercial,city services,and res- idential loads,a total exiting electric load of 13,663 MWh per year is obtained.Assuming a thirty percent load factor,the coincident peak demand would be 5.2 MW.These figures were used as the 1985 loads on which load forecasts for this study were based. 9249/377 15 SECTION IV GROWTH SCENARIOS AND LOAD FORECASTS GENERAL This section describes the low,moderate,and high growth scenarios used for the reconnaissance economic analysis.A population forecast,broken down by resident and transient population,was developed for each growth scenariofor the twenty-year planning- period from 1985 to 2005 (Figure 2).This population projection was used to develop a residential electric forecast for the same planning period.The residential load projection was then combined with commercial,city services,and industrial load forecasts to arrive at a total load forecast for each growth scenario.The detailed population and load projections are contained in Ap- pendix A. LOW GROWTH SCENARIO Population This population forecast assumed a 1985 base population of 1,500 consisting of sixty percent or 900 full-time residents and a transient population of 600 or forty percent.It was assumed that 9249/377 16 'the population would increase by two percent annually for twenty years maintaining the sixty percent/forty percent ratio of full-time residents to transient population.Under this scenario, the population of Unalaska/Dutch Harbor would reach 2,229 by the end of the planning period in 2005 (Figure 2). Residential Load The residential electric load forecast was based on the city utility's measured average of 484 kWh per month for a residential customer.It was assumed that this average would increase gradual- ly over a three-year period and stabilize at 550 kWh per month. The forecast assumed that sixty percent of the full-time resi- dential population would live in single-family dwellings with an |average of three residents per dwelling.It assumed that forty percent of the residents and all of the transient population would live in multi-family dwellings with an average of three residents per unit and a vacancy rate of twenty-five percent.This resident-per-unit figure for multi-family dwellings was based on the assumption that many transients would live in dormitory-style housing provided by industrial employers.Annual energy use calculations were based on an assumption that the average use per single-family dwelling would be fifty percent greater that the average use per multi-family unit.The residential peak demand assumed a twenty percent load factor.Under the low growth scen- ario,the residential load would increase from 2,510 MWh per year 9249/377 17 in 1985 to 4,239 MWh per year in 2005,and the residential peak demand would increase from 1.4 MW to 2.4 MW. Commercial Load The commercial electric load forecast was based on the city utili- ty's 1984 measured average of 1,662 kWh per month for twenty-nine commercial customers.It was assumed that this average would increase gradually over a three-year period and stabilize at 2,500 kWh per month.The low growth forecast assumed that the number of commercial customers would increase at a rate of two percent annually.The commercial peak demand assumed a twenty-five percent load factor.Under this growth scenario,the commercial electric load would increase from 578 MWh per year in 1985 to 1,293 MWh per year twenty years later.The commercial peak demand would increase from 264 kW to 590 kW over the same period. City Services Load The city services electric load forecast was based on the 1984 measured load of 1,439 MWh per year (Table 2).Under the low growth scenario the city services load would increase two percent annually for the twenty-year planning period reaching 2,138 MWh per year.The peak demand,based on a thirty-five percent load factor, would increase from 469 kW in 1985 to 697 kW in 2005. 9249/377 18 Industrial Load The 1983 industrial load survey conducted by the city utility (Table 1)was used as a basis on which to make current and future industrial load projections for Unalaska/Dutch Harbor.The 1984 estimate of 9,135 MWh per year was based on known facility closures and reductions in industrial operations.Due to the presence of well maintained,underutilized facilities,and considering that 1983 was a year of low commercial fishing activity at Dutch Harbor, it was assumed that the 1983 level of industrial loads would recur relatively quickly even with a slow recovery of the fisheries industry.As a conservative estimate,under the low growth scen- ario,it was assumed that industrial loads would increase steadily, again reaching the 1983 level of 20,967 MWh per year in 1995 and would stabilize at that level through the end of the planning period (Figure 4).Assuming a twenty-five percent load factor,the industrial peak demand would increase from 4.2 MW in 1985 to 9.6 MW in 1995. Total Electric Load The residential,commercial,city services,and industrial energy use forecasts were combined to obtain a total electric load for the low growth scenario of 13,663 MWh per year in 1985,increasing over the planning period to 28,637 MWh per year in 2005 (Figure 4).The coincident peak demand,assuming a thirty percent load factor, would increase from 5.2 MW in 1985 to 10.9 MW in 2005 (Figure 5). 9249/337 19 {00 (Thousands)ENERGYUSE(MWh-yr)TOTAL LOAD 20 +zs LOAD NON-INDUSTRIAL LOAD0$1 1 +--- 1985 1990 :1995 2000 2005 YEAR Figure 4.Low growth scenario electric load forecast. 40 35 " e 30 - 2 |254< 3) Oe 205 4 a HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO a 15-QO z MODERATE GROWTH SCENARIOfe)a 0 10 LOW GROWTH SCENARIO 5+ eeee 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 YEAR Figure 5.Electric demand forecast for three growth scenarios. 9249/337 20 MODERATE GROWTH SCENARIO Population This population forecast again assumed a 1985 base population of 1,500 consisting of sixty percent or 900 full-time residents and a transient population or 600 or forty percent.It was assumed that the population would increase by four percent annually for twenty years.It was further assumed that as the population increased, the percentage of full-time residents would increase by one percent a year reaching an eighty percent/twenty percent ratio of resident to transient population by 2005.Under the moderate growth scen- ario,the population of Unalaska/Dutch Harbor would reach 3,287 by the end of the planning period (Figure 2). Residential Load The assumptions used for formulating the residential load forecast under the moderate growth scenario were the same as those described for the low growth scenario (page 17).Under the moderate growth scenario,the residential load would increase from 2,510 MWh per year in 1985 to 6,473 MWh per year in 2005.The residential peak demand would increase from 1.4 MW to 3.7 MW. 9249/337 21 Commercial Load The commercial electric load forecasts were based on the city utility's 1984 measured average of 1,662 kWh per month for twenty-nine commercial customers.It was assumed that this average would increase gradually over a three-year period and would sta- bilize at 2,500 kWh per month.The moderate growth scenario assumed that the number of commercial customers would increase at a rate of four percent annually.Based on these assumptions,the commercial electric load would increase from 578 MWh per year in |1985 to 1,906 MWh per year twenty years later.Using a twenty-five percent load factor,the commercial peak demand would increase from 264 kW to 870 kW over the same period. City Services Load The city services electric load was based on the current measured load of 1,439 MWh per year (Table 2).Under the moderate growth scenario the city services load would increase four percent an- nually for the twenty-year planning period reaching 3,153 MWh per year.The peak demand,based on a thirty-five percent load factor, would increase from 469 kW in 1985 to 1,028 kW in 2005. 9249/337 22 Industrial Load As described previously for the low growth scenario,the industrial load forecast for the moderate growth scenario was based on the 1983 and 1984 industrial loads contained in Table 1.For the moderate growth scenario,it was assumed that industrial loads would increase at a steady rate,reaching the 1983 level of 20,967 MWh per year in 1990 and would continue to increase for an additional five years at half that rate,reaching 26,883 MWh per year in 1995,where it would remain through the end of the planning period (Figure 6).This additional increase in industrial loads could be due to continued growth in the fisheries industry or to the establishment of a new industrial base such as oi]and gas production services.Assuminga twenty-five percent load factor, the industrial peak demand would increase from 4.2 MW in 1985 to 12.3 MW in 1995. Total Electric Load The residential,commercial,city services,and industrial energy use forecasts were combined to obtain a total electric load for the moderate growth scenario of 13,663 MWh per year in 1985,increasing over the planning period to 38,415 MWh per year in 2005 (Figure 6). The coincident peak demand,assuming a thirty percent load factor, would increase from 5.2 MW in 1985 to 14.6 MW in 2005 (Figure 5). 9249/337 23 100 (Thousands)30 -TOTAL LOAD ENERGYUSE(MWh-yr)INDUSTRIAL LOAD NON-INDUSTRIAL LOAD )a $+ 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 YEAR Figure 6.Moderate growth scenario electric load forecast. HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO Population This population forecast assumed a 1985 base population of 1,500 consisting of sixty percent or 900 full-time residents and a transient population of 600 or forty percent.It was assumed that the population would increase by eleven percent annually for twenty years.This population forecast was based on projections by Dames and Moore (1982)assuming establishment of a bottomfish industry in the community.It was further assumed that as the population increased,the percentage of full-time residents would increase by two percent a year reaching an eighty percent/twenty percent ratio 9249/337 24 of resident to transient population by 1995.Under this scenario, the population of Unalaska/Dutch Harbor would reach 12,093 by the end of the planning period (Figure 2). Residential Load The assumptions used for formulating the residential load forecast under the high growth scenario were the same as those described for the low growth scenario (page 17).Under the high growth scenario, the residential load would increase from 2,510 MWh per year in 1985 to 23,816 MWh per year in 2005.The residential peak demand would increase from 1.4 MW to 13.6 MW. Commercial Load The commercial electric load forecast was again based on the city utility's 1984 measured average of 1,662 kWh per month for twenty-nine commercial customers.It was assumed that this average would increase gradually over a three-year period and stabilize at 2,500 kWh per month.The high growth scenario assumed that the number of commercial customers would increase at a rate of eleven percent annually.based on these assumptions,the commercial electrical load would increase from 578 MWh per year in 1985 to 7,014 MWh per year twenty years later.Using a twenty-five percent load factor,the commercial peak demand would increase from 264 kW to 3.2 MW over the same period. 9249/337 25 City Services Load The city services electric load was based on the current measured load of 1,439 MWh per year (Table 2).Under the high growth scenario the city services load would increase eleven percent annually for the twenty-year planning period reaching 11,602 MWh per year.The peak demand,based on a thirty-five percent load factor,would increase from 469 kW in 1985 to 3.8 MW in 2005. Industrial Load As described for the low growth scenario,the industrial load forecast for the high growth scenario was based on the 1983 and 1984 industrial loads contained in Table 1.In addition to the industrial growth under the moderate growth scenario,the high growth scenario assumed the establishment of a low-level bottomfish industry as described by Dames &Moore (1982).The energy use forecast for the bottomfish portion of the industrial load was modified from Acres'1984 forecast (contained in Appendix A), assuming that twenty-five percent of the bottomfish catch would be processed by shore-based processors in Unalaska/Dutch Harbor.For the purpose of this study,it was assumed that the first effect of bottomfish processing would be seen in 1986.Under the high growth scenario,industrial energy use would increase from 9,135 MWh per year in 1985 to 50,333 MWh per year in 2005 (Figure 7).Assuming a twenty-five percent load factor,the industrial peak demand would increase from 4.2 MW in 1985 to 23.0 MW in 1995. 9249/337 26 Total Electric Load The residential,commercial,city services,and industrial energy use forecasts were combined to obtain a total electric load for the high growth scenario of 13,663 MWh per year in 1985,increasing over the planning period to 92,765 MWh per year in 2005 (Figure 7). The coincident peak demand,assuming a thirty percent load factor, would increase from 5.2 MW in 1985 to 35.3 MW in 2005 (Figure 5). 100 90+ 60-£\70= o5$0 60 - S¢ ne 50ag-TOTAL LOAD we 40-gow % 3 30 -INDUSTRIAL LOAD & 20-+ 10 -NON-INDUSTRIAL LOAD .---e er ee eee eee 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Figure 7.High growth scenario electric load forecast. 9249/337 27 SECTION V DESCRIPTION OF BASE CASE AND ALTERNATIVES GENERAL A wide range of power production technologies were evaluated for Unalaska/Dutch Harbor.Coal,wood,and peat were discounted as energy resources due to lack of availability in the region.Wind and solar energy were considered too expensive to meet any signifi- cant level of power demand in the community.Energy conservation practices are already in effect in the community and are likely to continue under any future power system plan.After evaluating available power system options,three were selected for further analysis:geothermal,hydroelectric,and diesel generators. BASE CASE The base case power system plans used for this analysis consisted of the continued use of diesel powered generators to meet the total electric demand of the Unalaska/Dutch Harbor community.A base case plan was developed for each of the three growth scenarios analyzed.The base case plans assumed that all customers on the city's expanded electric distribution system would purchase power from the municipal utility.The existing 3.9 MW capacity of the city utility system would be expanded,as currently planned,to 9249/337 28 9.5 MW in 1987.The base case plans assumed that,after 1987, diesel generator capacity would be added in 2.5 MW increments,as needed,such that the needs projected in each growth scenario could be met with firm capacity (the system capacity with the largest available unit down for maintenance).It was also assumed that existing and new diesel powered generators have a twenty-year life. Based on these assumptions,diesel capacity addition and replace- ment schedules were formulated for each of the three growth scenar- jos.These schedules are contained in Appendix B. The annual costs of the base case plans were calculated in 1983 dollars for the period of economic analysis from 1985 to 2025. Total annual system costs included fuel costs,addition and re- placement.costs,and operation and maintenance costs.Fuel cost,a function of quantity used and price,was based on an assumption that the diesel generators would produce twelve kWh per gallon of fuel.Fuel price was based on the January 1985 price of diesel fuel available to the new powerhouse,which was 87.6 cents per gallon.For the purpose of this study,it was assumed that the price of fuel would decrease by four percent in 1986,remain at that level for two additional years,and increase by two percent annually from 1989 until the end of the planning period in 2005. The cost used for diesel capacity addition and replacement was $700.00 per kW installed capacity,which is the city's estimated cost of installation in the new powerhouse.The same cost per installed kW was used at the end of the period of economic analysis 9249/337 29 to calculate the salvage value of unused capacity.Annual opera- tion and maintenance costs are detailed in Table 3 and total $1,012,000 per year.The annual costs of the base case power system plan for each growth scenario are contained in Appendix C. Table 3 ANNUAL OPERATION AND MAINTENANCE COSTS OF BASE CASE AND GEOTHERMAL POWER SYSTEMS ($1,000) BASE CASE GEOTHERMAL SYSTEM PLANS SYSTEM PLANS Administrative Administrator $65 $65 Assistant 20 20 Labor Supervisor (1) : 77 77 Operator (1)50 (2)100 Mechanical (2)100 100 Electrical (2)100 100 Contractual Maintenance 400 350 Well conditioning 0 75 Outside consulting 0 50 Power plant insurance 100 -150 Miscellaneous Equipment/Supplies 100 160 Helicopter Service 0 28 TOTALS $1,012 $1,275 9249/337 30 GEOTHERMAL ALTERNATIVES The Alaska Power Authority recently completed its exploration and drilling program for geothermal resource assessment on Unalaska Island.This program resulted in the discovery of an extremely productive geothermal reservoir near Makushin Volcano,about twelve miles west of the community of Unalaska/Dutch harbor.Flow tests and reservoir analyses were conducted during the summer of 1984 to characterize the nature of the resource and to determine the productivity of the reservoir.These analyses revealed that a single commercial-size well at the site could sustain a flow rate capable of producing from 7 to 13 MW of electric power for over 500 years (Economides and others,1984).The results of the program were used in this analysis to select appropriate geothermal power systems for analysis. Two geothermal technologies were considered,a total flow system and a binary system.These two geothermal processes were selected for analysis because they both exhibit high efficiency with a two-phase (liquid and vapor)geothermal fluid,such as that dis- covered at Makushin Volcano,and because they both are relatively cost competitive in the small unit sizes needed to meet the power demand at Unalaska. The two geothermal systems were analyzed in various sizes from 2.1 to 13.4 MW for the three growth scenarios.All geothermal unit 9249/337 31 sizes were based on net MW deliverable to the power grid after making deductions necessary to supply station service.It was assumed that all of the geothermal systems could be operated with a single production well.For each growth scenario and system analyzed,it was assumed that the geothermal units would produce ninety percent of the potential net production of the geothermal system (installed capacity times 8,760 hours per year),unless that total was greater than the total annual energy demand of the community,in which case the geothermal units would produce ninety percent of the total annual energy demand.Demand that could not be met by the geothermal units would be met with diesel powered generators.The diesel component of each geothermal system was based on all of the same assumptions given for the base case. Each geothermal power system plan was based on the assumption that construction of the geothermal component would begin in 1986 and geothermal power production would commence in 1990.Detailed construction costs are contained in Appendix D.Based on geotech- nical analysis of geothermal fluids produced at the Makushin site, it appears that the effluent from a geothermal plant could be disposed of in surface drainage without adversely affecting the environment,precluding the need for an injection well.All geothermal system construction costs include $8,732,000 for field development costs and $15,473,000 for road and transmission line construction costs,including a thirty percent contingency factor due to the remote location and local topographic and weather 9249/337 32 conditions.The annual operation and maintenance costs for the geothermal power system plans were assumed to be $1,275,000 as indicated in Table 3.All geothermal power systems were assumed to have a 35-year life. Alternative A--Total Flow Geothermal System Total flow geothermal systems separate two-phase geothermal fluid into steam and water which are piped to a specially designed nozzle where they are recombined in specified proportions to maximize thermal and kinetic energy to drive an impulse turbine.Total flow systems are available in 2.1 net MW units,and this study considers systems containing from one to six units.These alternative systems are summarized in Table 4. Table 4 SUMMARY OF TOTAL FLOW GEOTHERMAL ALTERNATIVES 1983 NUMBER CONSTRUCTION ALTERNATIVE OF UNITS SIZE (MW)COST($1,000) A(1)1 2.1 28 827 A(2)2 4.2 32 ,031 A(3)3 6.3 35 ,235 A(4)4 8.4 38 ,439 A(5)5 10.5 41,643 A(6)6 12.6 44 ,847 9249/337 33 Alternative B--Binary Geothermal System Binary geothermal systems separate two-phase geothermal fluid and use the water to preheat and evaporate a binary fluid such as isobutane or freon.The geothermal steam than superheats the binary vapor which is used to drive a turbine and generator. Binary systems are available in 3.35 net MW units,and this study considers systems containing from one to four units.These alter- native systems are summarized in Table 5. Table 5 SUMMARY OF BINARY GEOTHERMAL ALTERNATIVES 1983 NUMBER CONSTRUCTION ALTERNATIVE OF UNITS SIZE (MW)COST ($1,000) B(1)1 3.35 36 ,379 B(2)2 6.70 47 ,135 B(3)3 10.05 57 ,891 B(4)4 13.40 68 ,647 HYDROELECTRIC ALTERNATIVES The U.S.Corps of Engineers has proposed two small hydroelectric systems near Unalaska,a 700 kW system on the Shaishnikof River and a 260 kW system on Pyramid Creek.These two proposals were con- sidered individually in this analysis as alternative power plans, while a combined system with both projects constructed and operated 9249/337 . 34 simultaneously was considered as a third hydroelectric power alter- native.For each growth scenario,it was assumed that the hydro- electric systems could produce ninety percent of their potential annual net production (installed capacity time 8,760 hours per year).Demand that could not be met by the hydroelectric system was again assumed to be met by a diesel component that conformed to all of the assumptions given for the base case. Each hydroelectric power system plan was based on the assumption that the hydroelectric system would be constructed in 1988 and hy- droelectric power production would begin in 1989.Detailed con- struction costs for the hydroelectric systems as provided by the U.S.Corps of Engineers (1984)are contained in Appendix D. The construction cost used in this study for the Shaishnikof pro- ject was taken directly from the Corps estimate ($5,571,000).The construction cost used for the Pyramid Creek project was modified from the Corps estimate to account for transmission line costs. The proposed Shaishnikof and Pyramid projects are situated such that they could utilize a common eight mile transmission line to in- tertie with the city distribution system.The Corps attributed the cost for such a transmission line entirely to the Shaishnikof pro- ject which would be located furthest from the city.In order to formulate a cost for the Pyramid Creek alternative,this study used the Corps'unit cost for the proposed Shaishnikof transmission line to calculate an intertie cost of $946,000 for a five mile 9249/337 35 transmission line that would be needed if only the Pyramid Creek system were constructed.This was added to the Corps'estimated cost of $816,000 for a total of $1,762,000 for the Pyramid Creek project.The cost of constructing both projects assumes that a common transmission line would be used. The Corps projected annual operation and maintenance costs of the proposed Shaishnikof and Pyramid projects to be $30,000 and $20,000 respectively.For this analysis,since the hydroelectric compo- nents made up a small proportion of the power system plans,the Corps'operation and maintenance costs were added to the operation and maintenance cost used for the base case to arrive at an annual operation and maintenance cost for each hydroelectric power system plan. Although the Corps assumed that the proposed hydroelectric projects would have a 50-year life,it was assumed here that small hydro- electric systems in rural Alaska communities have a 30-year to 40-year life.This study used a 37-year life for convenience of economic analysis. 9249/337 36 Alternative C--Hydroelectric System This study considers three hydroelectric alternatives based on pro- jects proposed by the U.S.Corps of Engineers on the Shaishnikof River and on Pyramid Creek.These alternatives are summarized in 'Table 6. Table 6 SUMMARY OF HYDROELECTRIC ALTERNATIVES 1983 CONSTRUCTION ALTERNATIVE WATERSHED SIZE (MW COST ($1,000) C(1)Shaishnikof 0.70 5,571 C(2)Pyramid _0.26 1,762 C(3)Both 0.96 6 ,387 9249/337 37 SECTION VI RESULTS OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Cost of Power System Plans The detailed annual costs (in 1983 dollars)of the base case and each alternative power plan,for each growth scenario,is contained in Appendix C.These costs were used to calculate a net present value for each plan using a 3.5 percent discount rate.A summary table containing the net present values for each alternative and each growth scenario can be found at the beginning of Appendix C. The net present values were used to determine optimum geothermal systems for each growth scenario.Obviously,it would not be economical to construct a 13.4 MW geothermal power system under a Tow growth scenario nor to construct a 2.1 MW system under a high growth scenario.The sizing of these systems for each scenario can be accomplished by evaluating the net present values for each system.For each growth scenario,the three total flow alter- natives and the three binary alternatives with the lowest net present values were selected as the optimum systems for the growth scenario.For the low and moderate growth scenarios,the optimum geothermal systems are the total flow systems consisting of two to four units (4.2 -8.4 MW)and the binary systems consisting of one to three units (3.35 -10.05 MW).For the high growth scenarios, 9249/337 38 the optimum geothermal systems are the total flow systems consist- ing of four to six units (8.4 -10.5 MW)and the binary systems consisting of two to four units (6.70 -13.40 MW). The net present values of the base case,the optimum geothermal alternatives and the hydroelectric alternatives are depicted in Figures 8 through 10 for each growth scenario.These figures also show the cost-to-cost ratios of the base case to the alternatives. A fold-out key to these figures can be found on page 53. Figure 8 shows that under the low growth scenario,a two-unit (4.2 MW)total flow geothermal system is the most economical source of electric power for the Unalaska/Dutch Harbor community.The net present value of such a system is $72.9 million as opposed to $79.9 million for the base case,representing a 1.10 cost-to-cost ratio. Likewise,under the moderate growth scenario (Figure 9),a 4.2 MW total flow geothermal system is the most economical source of power for the community with a 1.25 cost-to-cost ratio with the base case.Assuming the high growth scenario (Figure 10),the optimum power system plan,with a cost-to-cost ratio of 1.68,is a five-unit (10.5 MW)total flow geothermal system. The construction costs (per MW of net capacity)used for the binary geothermal power systems analyzed in this study were,on an aver- age,eighty-nine percent higher than the construction costs of the total flow geothermal systems analyzed (Appendix D).Even assuming 9249/337 39 LseeeseeeeeeeocUCCrcrOWUlhlUCcOUTlmlCOCOClCOCOlCOHSCOCa secssass sasssc Bet-ODTDB haygSee FF 8Gfe UML EMaaw"E MSGRIWREGEETE.W EXXSKQQGYSERS QaEY 994UWWIK} B(2)3B(3)c(1)c(2)c(3)A(3)A(4)feo] PorbrorettTObttorr brtt tt rt NMOOr OWHH NNT HADOhR OM HOUN+t© at wanes Sats = «©6LCOCOCUOCUCOCUOOUCURWmUCUNCUOCUCA lho WVEWCEWs4Las-4 c(i)c(2)(3)4 a - 409249/337 8 VLLLLILLLLLLLLLLL LLL, 8 VLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLEE | LLLLLLLLLLLLLLLALitTcaBLLLILILILLLLLLLLSULLLLLLLLLLLELLLLLDS®ULLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLEBVLILILLLLLLLLLLLeeeSeSones eeseenena Beeswees| ocUCcmcmUmC<C"iSUW™CODWULCCOUWUCOCOWCOTDCCODTlCCOCDTC tC bangofeF&FFF&F8HFMF NM T CASE c(1)c(2) c(3) al3LLL A§(1)B(2)B(3)a a A(4) - NSs\B(3) 'mz rorrTfbrotfobPrtt trot rrtr tt NO OKRroON TON tHOHOER OM HON «AoO ioeoeeeaeeeOeBe n=ee>>2=2>2>ee>ee=ee=) c(1)ss c(2)-s«C(3)A(z)A(3)=A(4) Moderate growth scenario economic ana 419249/337 OST OF POWER SYSTEM ALTERNATI.WW 98.9 100.0 T A(4)A(5)A(6) De c(1)c(2)c(3) 1.01 9") 6'6"6'6'6'6'6'6'6'6'6'O'0'6'0' OO" 1.01 0,6,0, 2,COS?aoatatet 165.8 164.1 163.4 1.00 T 120.6 4 - 4 115.8 B(2)B(3)B(4) ALTERNATIVES 131 COST/COST RATIOS 0"6'O'6'0'e'O'b'O'6'0'0'O'0'6'b'0'b' 6°00" 00'S 4'O'0'O"'6' O'O'O'4'O'4'O' 0O'8". %esaceneenerecectet neanetatetatotetotets xe ORO RIS wesoneseresecocece 110.4 TSs 190 BASE CASE 1eeeeaeeeeeoogogoooaoaqosnoaronwtnn 180 - 170 165.8 160 + 150 + 140 - 130 + 120 - 110 = 100 + 90 +(®UOCTLITW) (S2¥11I0d €861T) ANIVA LINESSHa LAN LSOO SZAILVNYUALIV'LSOOD ASVYD FSva ALTERNATIVES 42 High growth scenario economic analysis. 9249/337 Figure 10. this significantly higher cost,a binary geothermal system is more economical than the base case under each growth scenario. The hydroelectric power systems analyzed do not appear to be significantly more economical than the base case.Because the hydroelectric component of these systems would provide such a small proportion of the total electric demand of the community,they have little effect on the cost of the entire system. 9249/337 43 Sensitivity Analysis A sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine the effect of a 4.5 percent discount rate and various fuel escalation rates on the economics of the base case and alternative power system plans.For "each growth scenario,the total flow alternative,the binary alternative,and the hydroelectric alternative with the lowest net present value were used in the sensitivity analysis.A summary table and detailed annual cost data from the sensitivity analysis are contained in Appendix E.The results of the analysis are illustrated in Figures11 through 13. 100 3.5%DISCOUNT RATE 80 4.5%DISCOUNT RATE \NASWu NETPRESENTVALUE(1983Dollars)(Thousands)BGGMGL_[E_EGAXG[#O[EeQMGCEGGK(QA30 4 Y 10 -Y )t aa T L q L BASE CASE A(2)B(1)c(3)BASE CASE A(2)B(1)c(3) FUEL ESCALATION RATE Zz]Low MEDIUM XS}HIGH Figure 11.Low growth scenario sensitivity analysis. 9249/337 44 T WN 2i 8s vyLe<A CRi=SaKSIW I. nseeseeceeeeeeeeesGseeece|PS [o< ©© @©@aoaooeoeoeoaooqoqoaoeo™ »« @e@82@99G2909q0qgeeeoco0ec eaO20 00° & xAOM MOPrPaonwt Onwntoomamaeriwoennwt ONot vsz=89®82F6©8FF98HBBOT LULULUmUUNLLULULUmMMLUMAKG 3.5%DISCOUNT RATE CASE A(5) Moderate growth nario sensi ASE CASE Le Bu {7}Low 12.Figure 45 727)Low Figure 13.High growth scenario sensitivity analysis. 9249/337 The medium fuel escalation rate used in the sensitivity analysis is the same rate used in the overall economic analysis.It assumed a four percent decrease in the price of diesel fuel in 1986,no change in that price in 1987 and 1988,and a two percent annual increase in the price of fuel from 1989 to 2005.As with the overall economic analysis,the fuel price was held constant from 2005 to the end of the period of economic analysis in 2025. The low fuel escalation rate represented a four percent annual decline in the price of diesel fuel for three years (until 1988) and a constant fuel price from 1988 to 2025.The high fuel esca-. lation rate assumed a constant fuel price until 1988,3.5 percent annual increase from 1989 to 2005,and a constant price from 2005 to 2025.These fuel escalation rates and the respective fuel prices are summarized in Table 4. Figure 11 indicates that under the low growth scenario and a low fuel escalation rate (where the price of diesel fuel declines to 77.5 cents per gallon and remains at that level through 2025),the base case is more economical than the alternatives considered. With a medium or high fuel escalation rate,however,the total flow geothermal power plan is optimal.A 4.5 percent discount rate causes the cost differences between the base case and alternatives to narrow but does not change the overall conclusions. 9249/337 46 Table 7 FUEL ESCALATION RATES LOW MEDIUM HIGH ESCALATION PRICE ESCALATION PRICE ESCALATION PRICE YEAR PERCENTAGE ($/gal)PERCENTAGE ($/ga1)PERCENTAGE -($/gal) 1985 0.876 0.876 0.876 1986 -4%0.841 4%0.841 0%0.876 1987 -4%0.807 0%0.841 0%0.876 1988 4%0.775 0%0.841 0%0.876 1989 0%0.775 +2%0.858 +3.5%0.907 1990 0%0.775 +2%0.875 +3.5%0.938 1991 0%0.775 +24 0.892 +354 0.971 1992 0%0.775 +24 0.910 +3.5%1.005 1993 0%0.775 +2%0.928 +3 5%1.040 1994 0%0.775 +2%0.947 +3.5%1.077 1995 0%0.775 +2%0.966 +3.5%1.115 1996 0%0.775 +24 0.985 $3.54 1.154 1997 0%0.775 +24 1.005 +3.5%1.194 1998 0%0.775 +24 1.025 +354 1.236 1999 0%0.775 +2%1.046 $3.54 1.279 2000 0%0.775 +2%1.067 +3.5%1.324 2001 0%0.775 +24 1.088 +3 5%1.370 2002 0%0.775 +24 1.110 +3.5%1.418 2003 0%0.775 +2%1.132 +3.5%1.468 2004 0%0.775 +2%1.154 +354 1.519 2005 0%0.775 +24,1.178 +3.5%1.572 2006-2025 0%0.775 0%1.178 0%1.572 Under the moderate growth scenario (Figure 12)and a 3.5 percent discount rate,the total flow system is slightly more economical than the base case,assuming a low fuel escalation rate,but con- siderably more economical at the medium and high fuel escalation rates.At a 4.5 percent discount rate and low fuel escalation rate,the total flow system and base case are approximately equal in cost,with the total flow system becoming more economical as the fuel escalation rate increases. At the high growth scenario,the total flow geothermal system is clearly the most economical source of power for the community at both discount rates and at all of the fuel escalation rates con- sidered. 9249/337 47 SECTION VII CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS Based on the findings of this reconnaissance level economic analy- sis,a geothermal power system plan,using diesel generators for peaking and backup,appears to be the most economical source of electric power for the community of Unalaska/Dutch Harbor under reasonable and moderate assumptions concerning population growth, electric load growth,and escalation rates in the price of diesel fuel.It is recommended that the Alaska Power Authority initiate a detailed feasibility study of the geothermal power alternative at Unalaska.The feasibility study should concentrate on a number of issues that appear to have a significant effect on the economics of the proposed project. Industrial electric loads,particularly those associated with the seafood processing industry,account for the greatest and most variable proportion of the total electric load in the community.A detailed accounting of the current and projected size of this load should be included in the feasibility study.The industrial load forecast should consider likely trends in regional commercial fish- eries,including both shellfish and bottomfish.The future of shore-based processing and the effect of floating processors on in- dustrial power demand should be carefully analyzed.An industrial 9249/337 48 load duration curve should be formulated indicating what proportion of the industrial load can be met by a geothermal power system. The feasibility study should analyze the potential for broadening the industrial and economic base of the community with proposed projects and activities such as the airport runway extension,the Coast Guard search-and-rescue facility,establishment of a service industry for offshore petroleum development,and the enhancement of tourism. The likelihood that large industrial customers will be connected to the city's electric distribution system and willing to purchase power produced from a geothermal power system should be analyzed in the feasibility study.The cost of power under such a system should be compared with the cost for industry to produce power with individual diesel generators.The feasibility study should analyze the effect of excess generating capacity in industry-owned genera- tors with industry purchasing power from the city system.It should also evaluate the potential for wheeling power from those generators to the city system during times of peak demand. The feasibility study should analyze the effect of a geothermal power system plan on the future benefits that could be derived from the use of waste heat from diesel generators at the city utility. It should also analyze the potential for using the effluent from a 9249/337 49 geothermal power plant for direct uses such as heating greenhouses or fish-hatchery rearing ponds. The feasibility study should analyze appropriate geothermal energy conversion processes and technologies and determine the one most suitable to the conditions at Unalaska,considering geothermal reservoir and fluid characteristics,cost,and reliability.It should evaluate streamflow data and water quality standards to de- termine appropriate geothermal effluent disposal practices. Considering the rugged terrain and the three-mile wide,deep-water bay between the community and the geothermal site,the feasibility study should carefully analyze various road and intertie routes to determine the most suitable routes and the most appropriate concep- tual design for a transmission line.This analysis should include economic consideration of the option of using highly automated power plant systems and helicopter access to the power plant site, precluding the need for road access. Since Unalaska Island is in an active seismic region and the geothermal site is in close proximity to an active volcano,the feasibility study should evaluate the potential for natural hazards and offer options for minimizing and mitigating their effect on the development of a geothermal power system.Additional geotechnical and geologic engineering investigations should be conducted to determine foundation conditions at the development site and con- 9249/337 50 struction material availability. The feasibility study should also include environmental evaluation to determine potential adverse effects of development on the natu- ral environment,including fish and wildlife habitat,and offer op- tions for minimizing and mitigating those effects. 9249/337 51> REFERENCES Acres American,Inc.,1984.Reconnaissance study of energy requirements and alternatives,appendix:Unalaska,draft report for the Alaska Power Authority,contract CC-08-2270. Alaska Department of Fish and Game,Division of Commercial Fisheries,1985.Westward region shellfish report to the Alaska Board of Fisheries. Alaska Department of Labor,Administrative Services Division, Research and Analysis Section,1982-1983.Alaska population overview,1982 -1983. Dames and Moore,1982.Aleutian regional airport,project documentation,report for the City of Unalaska. Economides,M.J.,Morris,C.W.,and Campbell,D.A.,1984. Evaluation of the Makushin geothermal reservoir,Unalaska Island,Proceedings of the Tenth Workshop on Geothermal Reservoir Engineering,SGP-TR-84,Stanford University, Stanford,Ca.,in press. Republic Geothermal,Inc.,1984.The Unalaska geothermal exploration project:electrical power generation analysis, final report for the Alaska Power Authority,contract CC-08-2334. U.S.Army Corps of Engineers,Alaska District,1984.Unalaska, Alaska final small hydropower interim feasibility report and environmental impact statement. U.S.Department of Commerce,Bureau of Census,1831 -1980.Census of population,vol.1,characteristics of population. U.S.Department of Commerce,National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,National Marine Fisheries Service,1976 - 1984.Fisheries of the Unites States. 9249/337 52 KEY TO FIGURES BASE CASE -Diesel powered generators ALTERNATIVE A -Total flow geothermal systems A (1)2.1 MW (1 unit) A (2)4.2 MW (2 units) A (3)6.3 MW (3 units) A (4)8.4 MW (4 units) A.(5)10.5 MW (5 units) A (6)12.6 MW (6 units) ALTERNATIVE B -Binary geothermal systems B (1)3.35 MW (1 unit) B (2)6.70 MW (2 units) B (3);10.05 MW (3 units) B (4)13.40 MW (4 units) ALTERNATIVE C -Hydroelectric Systems C (1).70 MW Shaishnikof River C (2).26 MW Pyramid Creek C (3)-96 MW Both FUEL ESCALATION RATES 1986 1987 1988 1989-2005 Low -4%-4%-4%0% Medium -4%0%0%+2% High 0%0%0%+3.5% 9249/372 53 APPENDIX A Population and Electric Load Forecasts ttstemBtatdOoooCMOdOO¢19DB3H250MotetatstowhMhNetaoOmMnuNoOOODOENONEoDdowUaadg«$ept8pepotpebatpeBSDl&teNecotMadrentUNALASKA/DUTCH HSRB0OR POPULATION FORECAST LCW GROWTH SCENARIO MODERATE GROWTH SCENARIO HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO RESTDENT TRANSIENT TOTAL RESIDENT TRANSIENT TOTAL RESIDENT TRANSIENT TOTAL 900 600 1,500 900 600 1,500 900 600 1.500 918 612 1,530 952 608 1,560 1,032 633 1,665 936 624 1-561 1,006 617 1-622 1,183 665 1,848 953 637 1,592 1,063 624 1,687 1,354 697 2,051 974 , 649 1,624 1,123 632 1,755 1,548 729 2.277 994 662 1,656 2,186 639 1,825 1,769 758 2.528 3+024 676 1,689 *1,253 645 1-698 2-020 786 2-806 22034 689 1,723 1.323 651 1,974 2,305 810 3-114 3.G54 703 1,75?1,396 65?2-053 2,627 830 3-457 2,076 717 14793 1.473 662 2-135 2,993 844 3-837 2.99?731 1,828 1,554 666 2-220 3.407 852 4,259 cell 746 1,865 1,640 670 2,309 3,782 946 4,728 234%761 1,902 3,729 672 2,402 4,198 1,050 5,248 1.164 776 1,949 2,823 674 2,498 4.660 1,165 5.825 2,388 792 1,979 1,922 675 2.598 5.173 1,293 6,466 22h)808 2-019 2,026 675 2.701 §-742 1,435 7lq7 1,236 824 2,059 2-235 674 2,809 6,373 1,593 7.966 1,260 840 2,200 2-250 672 2.922 7,074 1,769 8,843 oe 28S 65?2.142 2.379 669 3,039 7,852 1,963 9,815 4,311 874 2.185 2,497 664 3.160 8.716 2.179 10,895 203239 892 22229 2,629 657 3,287 9,675 2,419 12,093 £<337 892 2-229 2-629 657 3.287 9,675 2.419 12,093 2,337 892 2,229 2-629 657 3,287 9,675 2,419 12,093 24337 892 2.229 2-629 657 3,287 9.675 2.419 12.093 1,337 892 2.229 2-629 657 3,287 9,675 2.419 12,093 1,337 892 22229 2-629 657 3.287 9,675 2,419 12,093 2,337 892 2-229 2,629 657 3,287 9,675 2,419 12,093 2.33?892 2.229 2.629 657 3,287 9,675 2.419 12,093 1,337 892 27229 2-629 657 3,287 9-675 2,419 12,09? 4.337 892 2-229 2-629 657 3.287 9.675 2,419 12,093 1.397 892 2-229 2,629 637 3,287 9,675 2.419 12,093 1.337 892 22229 2-629 657 3,287 9,675 2,419 12,093 2,337 892 2229 2-629 657 3,287 9,675 2,419 12,093 2.337 892 222 .2,629 657 3.287 9.675 2-419 12-093 1,339 892 2-229 2,629 657 3.287 9,675 2/419 12,093 3.33?892 2,229 2,629 637 3,287 9.675 2.419 12,093 3,337 892 2,229 2-629 657 3.287 9-673 2,419 12,093 2.33?892 2,229 2-629 637 3,287 »94675 2.419 212,093 2733?892 2,229 2.629 657 3.287 9-675 2,419 12,093 20337 892 2.229 2,629 657 3,297 9.675 2.419 12-093 2.37 @92 2,229 2,629 65?3,287 9,675 2.419 12,093 vS tstvivtecytytetsOoraroorwndoocSSOMDtoNERepeoea:3HhdeutP24OteraNsivUNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR RESIDENTIAL LOAD FORECAST LOW GROWTH SCENARTO POPULATION SINGLE FAMILY DWELLINGS MULTI-FAMILY DWELLINGS TOTALS AYER SGE USE PER NUMBER ENERGY PEAK NUMBER ENERGY PEAK ENERGY PEAK CUSTOMER OF USE DEMAND OF USE DEMAND USE DEMAND RESIDENT TRANSIENT TOTAL =(kWh/mo)HOUSES (MWh/yr)(kw)UNITS (MWh/yr)(kw)(MWh/yr )(kW) 960 600 1,500 484 180 2,329"759 320 1,18)674 2-510 1,433 918 612 1,530 506 184 1.417 809 326 1,260 719 2.677 1,528 936 624 1-561 52 187 1,508 86)333 1,34)765 2,849 1,626 933 637 1,592 559 igl 1,603 915 340 1,425 813 3.027 1,728 974 649 1-624 550 195 1,635 933 346 2,453 829 3,088 1.762 994 662 1,656 350 199 1,667 952 353 1,482 846 3.149 1,798 1,024 676 1,689 559 203 1,701 971 360.1,512 863 3-212 1,834 1,034 689 1,723 550 207 1,735 990 368 2,542 880 34277 1,870 1,054 703 1,757 550 211 1,769 1,010 375 1,573 898 3.342 1,908 1,076 717 1,793 550 215 1,805 1,030 382 1,604 916 3.409 1,946 1,097 731 1,828 $50 219 1,841 1-051 390 1,636 934 3,477 1,985 7,119 746 1.865 350 224 1,878 1,072 398 1,669 953 3.547 2,024 2,141 761 1,902 550 228 1,915 1,093 406 1,702 972 3-618 2,065 24164 776 1,940 550 233 1,954 2,115 414 1,737 99.3.690 2-106 1,28€792 1,979 550 238 1,993 1,137 422 1,771 1-011 3.764 2,148 1,211 808 2.019 550 242 2.032 1,160 431 1,807 1,031 3,839 2-191 14236 824 2.059 550 247 2,073 1,183 439 1,843 1,052 3-916 2-235 1.260 840 2,100 550 252 2/115 1.207 448 1,880 1,073 3,994 2.280 1,285 857 2-142 550 257 2,157 1-231 457 1,917 1,094 4,074 2.325 1,311 874 2,185 550 262 2,200 1,256 466 1,956 1,116 4.156 26372 2-337 892 24229 550 267 2.244 1,281 476 1,995 1.139 4.239 2,419 1,337 892 24229 550 267 2,244 1,281 476 1.995 1,139 4,239 2,419 1,339 892 2,229 550 267 27244 1,281 476 1.995 1.139 4,239 2,419 2.337 892 2.229 550 267 2,244 1,281 476 1,995 1-139 4,239 2,419 1,337 892 27229 550 267 2-244 1,281 476 1,995 2,139 4,239 2,419 1,337 892 2+229 550 267 2.244 1,281 476 1,995 1,139 4,239 2,419 1,337 892 2,229 $50 267 22244 1,281 476 1,995 1-139 4.239 2,419 4,337 892 2.229 550 267 26244 1,281 476 1,995 2.139 4,239 2-419 1.337 892 27229 550 267 27244 1,281 476 1,995 2,139 4,239 2,419 2,337 892 2.229 550 267 2.6244 1,281 476 1,995 1.139 4.239 2.419 2-337 892 2-229 55¢267 27244 1,282 476 1,995 1,139 4,239 2-419 e337 892 2.229 550 267 2,244 1,281 476 1,995 1,139 4.239 2.419 1,337 892 2,229 S50 267 21244 1-281 476 1,995 12.139 4,239 2,419 1.337 £92 2,229 359 267 2.244 1,282 476 1,995 1,139 4,239 2,419 1,33?892 24229 550 267 27244 1,281 476 1,995 1,139 4,239 2/419 2.33?892 2.229 3590 267 2.244 1,281 476 1,995 1,139 4,239 2,419 2.33)92 24229 550 267 2-244 1,281 476 1,995 1,139 4,239 2-419 1.33?892 2.229 550 267 2.244 1,282 476 1,995 1,139 4,239 2,419 2,33?892 24229 530 26?2,244 1,28)476 1,995 1,139 4.239 2,419 2.337 892 2,229 350 267 2,244 1,281 476 1.995 1,139 4,239 2,419 1,33?892 2,229 35¢26?2.244 1,281 476 1,995 1,139 4.239 2,419 GS POPULATION SOSITDENT 900 932 2.006 1.063 1,123 1,186 1,233 1,323 1,396 1.473 1,554 1,640 1,729 1,823 1,922 2.026 2.135 2.250 2,370 2,497 2.629 2.629 2-629 2.629 2,629 2.629 2,629 2,629 2,629 2.629 2,629 2.629 2-629 2.629 2,629 2.629 2,629 2,629 2,629 2.629 2-629 TRANSIENT TOSAL 1.500 1,560 1,622 1,687 1,755 1.825 1,898 2.974 2,053 2-135 2-220 2,309 2-402 2.498 2,598 2,701 2.809 2,922 3.039 3.160 3,287 3,287 3,287 3.287 3.287 3.287 3,287 3,287 3,287 3,287 3.287 3.287 3,28? 3-287 3,287 3,287 3,287 3,287 3,28? 3.287 3,287 JUNtLASKA/DUTCH HARBOR RESIDENTIAL LOAD FORECAST AVERLGE USE FER CUSTOMER (kWh Ano} 484 506 528 350 550 550 550 §50 550 550 550 550 550 550 $50 350 §50 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 5350 5350 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 550 $50 $50 550 MODERATE GROWTH SCENARIO SINGLE-FAMILY DWELLINGS MULTI-FAMILY DWELLINGS TOTALS NUMBER ENERGY PEAK NUMBER ENCRGY PEAK CNERGY PEAK OF USE DEMAND OF USE DEMAND USE DEMAND HOUSES (MWh/yr)(kW)UNITS (MWin/yr)(kw)(MWh /yr )(kw) 180 1.329 739 320 1,181 674 2,510 1,433 190 1.465 836 330 1,269 724 2.734 1,561 202 1,612 920 340 1.361 17 2-973 1.697 233 1.770 1.010 350 1,456 831 3.227 1,842 225 1,865 1,065 360 1,496 854 3,362 1,919 237 1,965 1.122 371 1,537 877 3,503 1,999 251 2.070 1,182 382 1,579 901 3.649 2,083 265 2.180 1,244 393 1,622 926 3.802 2-170 279 22296 1,310 405 1,665 952 3-961 2,261 295 2.417 1,379 417 1,710 976 4.127 2-356 311 2.543 1,452 429 1,756 1.002 4,299 2,454 328 2.676 1.528 442 1,803 1,029 4.479 2.557 346 2,615 1.607 455 1,851 1.056 4.666 2,663 365 2,962 1,690 468 1,900 1,084 4,861 2.775 384 3,114 1.778 481 1,950 1,113 5,065 2,891 405 3.275 1,869 495 2,001 1,142 5.276 3,011 427 3.443 1,965 509 2,054 1.172 34496 3.137 450 3.619 2,065 524 2-107 1,203 34726 3.268 474 3,803 2,171 539 2,162 1,234 5,965 3-404 499 3.996 2.281 554 2.217 1.266 6,214 3,547 526 4.198 2-396 570 2.274 1,298 6,473 3,694 526 4.198 2.396 570 2.274 1.298 6.473 3,694 526 4,198 2,396 370 2,274 1,298 6-473 3,694 526 4.198 2.396 570 2.6274 1,298 6,473 3,694 526 4.198 2,396 570 26274 1,298 6,473 3,694 526 4.198 2.396 370 2,274 1,298 6,473 3.694 526 4,198 2,396 $70 22274 1,298 6.473 3,694 526 4.198 2,396 370 2.274 1.298 6,473 3,694 526 4.198 2-396 570 27274 1,298 6.473 3,594 526 4.198 2,396 570 26274 1,298 6,473 3-694 526 4,198 2,396 370 2+274 1.298 6,473 3,694 526 4.198 2,396 570 2.274 1,298 6.473 3.694 $26 4,198 2,396 570 2.274 1,298 6,473 3,694 526 4,198 2,396 570 2,274 1,298 6.473 3.694 526 4.198 2-396 570 2.274 1,298 6,473 3.694 $26 4,198 2.396 570 2.274 1.298 6.473 3,694 526 4,198 2,396 $70 26274 1,298 6,473 3-694 526 4,198 2.396 $70 2,274 1,298 6,473 3-694 526 4.198 2,396 570 2-274 1,298 6,473 3,694 526 4,198 2.396 570 2-274 1.298 6.473 3.694 526 4,198 2,396 570 26274 1,298 6.473 3,694 9S YEZR 29es "986 1987 2988 1989 1999 199} 1992 1993 1994 3995 2296 1997 1998 1999 2009 2001 2302 2063 2004 2025 2006 2907 =2c0e 2009 TOL ROLL 2012 2023 2014 2025 2016 2c)? 2018 2019 2020 2022 2022 2023 2024 2025 JNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR RESIDENTIAL LOAD FORECAST HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO POPULATION SINGLE-FAMILY DWELLINGS MULTI-FAMILY DWELLINGS TOTALS AUERACE -- USE PEP NUMBER ENERGY PLAK NUMBER ENERGY PEAK ENERGY PEAK CUSTUMER OF USE DEMAND or USE DEMAND USE DEMAND RESIDENT TRANSIENT TOTAL (kWh/mo)HOUSES (MWlh/yr)(kW)UNITS (MWh/yr)(kw)(Mwh/yr )(kW) 90¢600 1,500 484 180 1,329 759 320 1,181 674 2,510 1,433 1,032 633 1,665 506 206 1,586 905 349 1,338 764 2.924 1,669 1,183 665 1,848 528 237 1,886 1,077 379 1,513 664 3,399 1,940 1,334 697 2.081 350 271 2,238 1.277 413 1,707 974 3,944 2,251 1,248 729 2,277 350 310 2,546 1,453 449 1,847 1,054 4,394 2,508 1,769 758 2,528 550 354 2.895 1,653 489 1,999 1,141 4,894 2.794 2,020 786 2,806 550 404 3,289 1,877 531 2,162 1,234 5,452 3,112 2,305 810 3,114 550 461 3.734 2/131 577 2,338 1,334 6,072 3,466 2,627 830 3,457 550 525 4,236 2,418 627 2,527 1,442 6,763 3,860 2,993 844 3,837 550 599 4,802 2,742 680 2,729 1,558 7,532 4,299 3,407 852 4,259 550 681 5,441 3,105 738 2,947 1,682 8,388 4,788 3,782 946 4.728 350 756 6,039 3,447 819 3.271 1,867 9,310 5,314 4,198 1,050 5,248 550 840 6,703 3,826 910 3,631 2,073 10,335 5,899 4,660 1,165 5,825 550 932 7,441 4,247 1,010 4,030 2,300 11-471 6,548 3,173 1,293 6,466 550 1,035 8,259 4-714 1,121 4,474 2,554 12,733 7,268 3,742 1,435 7,177 550 1,148 9,168 5,233 1,244 4,966 2,834 14,134 8,067 6,373 1,593 7,966 550 1,275 10,176 5,808 1,381 5,512 3,146 15,689 8,955 7.074 1.769 8,843 550 1,415 11,296 6.447 1,533 6.119 3,492 17,414 9,940 7,852 1,963 9,815 550 1,570 12,538 7,187 1,702 6,792 3,876 19,330 11,033 8.716 2.179 10,895 350 1,743 13,918 7,944 1,888 7.539 4,303 21,456 12,247 9,675 2,419 12,093 550 1,935 15,448 8,818 2,096 8,368 4,776 23,816 13,594 9,675 2.419 12,093 550 1,935 15,448 8,818 2,096 8,368 4.776 23,816 13,594 9,675 2,419 12,093 559 1,935 15,448 8,818 2,096 8,368 4,776 23,816 13,594 9,673 2.419 12.093 450 1,935 15,448 8,818 2.096 8,368 4,776 23,816 13,594 9,673 2,419 12,093 £50 1-935 15,448 8,818 2,096 8,368 4.776 23,616 13,594 9,673 2.419 12,093 350 1,935 15.448 8,818 2,096 8,368 4,776 23,816 13,594 9,675 2,419 12,093 550 1,935 15,448 6,818 2,096 8,368 4,776 23,816 13,594 9,675 2,419 12,093 250 1,935 15,448 8,818 2,096 8,368 4.776 23,816 13,594 9,675 2,419 12,093 350 1,935 15,448 8,818 2,096 8,368 4,776 23,816 13,594 9,675 2,419 12,093 550 1,935 15,448 8,818 2,096 8,368 4,776 23,816 13,594 9,675 2,419 12,093 550 1,935 15,448 8,818 2,096 8,368 4,776 23,816 13,594 9,675 2,419 12,093 350 1,935 15,448 8,818 2,096 8,368 4,776 23,816 13,594 9,675 2,419 12,093 £50 1,935 15,448 8,818 2,096 8,368 4,776 23,816 13,594 9,675 2.419 12,093 550 1,935 15,448 8,818 2,096 8,368 4.776 23.816 13,594 9,675 2,419 12,093 350 1,935 15,448 8,818 2,096 8,368 4,776 23,816 13,594 9.675 2.419 12,093 350 1,935 15,448 8,818 2,096 8,368 4,776 23,816 13,594 9,675 2,419 12,093 330 1,933 15,448 8,818 2,096 8,368 4,776 23,816 13,594 9,675 2.419 12,093 550 1,935 15,448 8,818 2,096 8,368 4,776 23,816 13,594 9,673 2,419 12,093 550 1,935 15,448 8,818 2,096 8,368 4,776 23,816 13,594 9,675 2,419 12,093 350 1,935 15,448 8,818 2,096 8.368 4,776 23,816 13,594 9,675 2,419 12,093 350 1,935 15,448 8,818 2,096 8,368 4,776 23,816 13,594 LS "stousNohatetoiso0<3">oo3SftdbeiaUitateJNALASKA/OUTCH HARBOR COMMERCIAL LOAD FORECAST LOW GROWTH SCENARTO MODERATE GROWTH SCENARIO HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO EVIREGCE USF PER NUMBER ENERGY PEAK NUMBER ENCRGY PEAK NUMBER ENERGY PEAK CUSTOMER Or USE DEMAND Or USE DEMAND Or USE DEMAND i kbin/mo)CUSTOMERS (Mulh/yr )(kw)CUSTOMERS (MWh/yr )(kw)CUSTOMERS (MWh/yr)(kw) 1,662 29 578 264 29 578 264 29 578 264 1,942 30 689 315 30 703 321 32 750 343 2-22)30 804 367 31 836 382 36 952 435 2.500 31 923 422 33 979 447 40 1,190 $43 2,500 31 942 430 34 1,018 465 44 1,321 603 2.300 32 961 439 35 1.058 483 49 1,466 669 2-500 33 980 447 37 1,101 $03 $4 1,627 743 2,300 33 999 456 38 2,145 523 60 1,806 825 2,500 34 1,019 463 40 1,191 544 6?2,005 916 2-500 35 1,040 475 4l 1.238 565 74 2-225 1,016 2,500 35 1,061 484 43 1,288 588 82 2,470 1,128 2.500 36 1,082 494 4s 1.339 612 91 24742 1,252 2,500 37 1,103 504 46 1,393 636 101 3,044 1,390 2-300 38 2,125 314 48 1,449 661 113 3.378 1,543 2-500 38 1,148 $24 $0 1,507-688 125 3,750 1.712 2-500 39 1.171 335 52 1,567 715 139 4,163 1,901 2-500 40 1,194 545 34 1.629 744 154 4,620 2-110 2,500 4l 1,218 556 56 1,695 774 171 $,129 2,342 2-500 41 1,243 56?59 1.762 805 190 5,693 2,599 2,500 42 1,267 579 6)1,833 837 211 6,319 2,885 2,500 43 1,293 590 64 1,906 870 234 7,014 3-203 2,500 43 1,293 590 64 1,906 870 234 7,014 3,203 2,500 43 1,293 590 64 1,906 870 *234 7,014 3-203 2,300 43 2,293 $90 64 2,906 870 234 7,014 3,203 2.500 43 1,293 590 64 1,906 870 234 7,014 3,203 2,300 43 1.293 590 64 1,906 870 234 7.014 3-203 2,500 43 1,293 $90 64 1,906 870 234 "7,014 3-203 2,500 43 1,293 390 64 1,906 870 234 7,014 3,203 2-500 43 1,293 590 64 -1,906 870 234 7,014 3,203 2.30 43 1,293 390 64 1,906 870 234 7.014 3,203 2,500 43 1,293 599 64 1,906 870 234 72014 3,203 2.500 43 1,293 590 64 1,906 870 234 7.014 3.203 2,500 43 1,293 590 64 1,906 870 234 7,014 3-203 2,500 43 1,293 590 64 1,906 870 234 7,014 3,203 2,509 43 1,293 5990 64 1,906 870 234 7,014 3-203 2,500 43 1,293 590 64 1,906 870 234 7.014 3-203 2,500 43 1,292 590 64 1.906 870 234 7,014 3,203 2,300 43 34293 590 64 1.906 870 234 7.014 3-203 2,500 43 1,293 590 64 1,906 870 234 7,014 3,203 2,500 43 1,293 590 64 1,906 870 234 7,014 3,203 2,500 43 1,293 590 64 1,906 870 234 7,034 3,203 8S YEAR 1985 1986 1983 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 2994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2oc0 2061 2002 2003 BoO4 2005 2006 200? 2008 2099 2910 202: 2012 2033 2014 2015 2916 2017 2018 2019 2020 2022 2022 2023 2024 2025 UNS LASKA/DUTCH HARBOR CITY SERVICES LOAD FORECAST LOW GROWTH MODERATE GROWTH HIGH GROWTH ENERGY PEAK ENERGY PEAK ENERGY PEAK USE DEMAND USE DEMAND USE DEMAND (MUb/yr)(kw)(MWh /yr )(kw)(MWh /yr )(kw) 1-439 469 1,439 469 1,439 469 1,468 479 1,497 488 1,597 521 1,497 488 1,556 508 1,773 578 1,527 498 1,619 528 1,968 642 1,558 508 1,683 549 2-185 712 1,389 518 1,751 571 2-425 791 1,621 529 1,821 594 2,692 878 1,653 539 1,894 618 2,988 974 1,686 550 -1,969 642 3,316 1,082 1,720 561 2,048 668 3,681 1,201 1,754 572 2,130 695 4,086 1,333 1,789 584 2,215 723 4,535 1,479 1,825 595 2.304 751 5,034 1,642 1,861 607 2,396 781 5,588 1,823 1,899 619 2,492 813 6-203 2,023 1,937 632 2,592 845 6,885 2,246 1,975 644 2,695 879 7,642 2,493 2.015 657 2.803 914 8,483 2,767 2,055 670 2,915 952 9,416 3,071 2,096 684 3,032 989 10,452 3,409 2,138 697 3,153 1-028 11,602 3,784 2,138 697 3,153 1,028 11,602 3,784 2,138 697 3,153 1,028 11,602 3,784 2.138 697 3,153 1,028 11,602 3.784 2,138 697 3,153 1,028 11,602 3,784 2,138 697 3,153 1,028 11,602 3,784 2,138 697 3,153 1,028 11,602 3,784 2-138 697 3,153 1,028 11,602 3,784 2,138 697 3,153 1,026 -11,602 3,784 2,138 697 3,153 1,028 11,602 3,784 2,138 697 3,153 1,028 11,602 3,784 2,138 697 3,183 1,028 11,602 3,784 2.138 697 3,153 1-028 11,602 3,784 2,138 697 3,153 1,028 11,602 3,784 2,138 697 3,153 1,028 13,602 3,784 2,138 697 3,153 1,028 11,602 3,784 2.138 697 3,153 1,028 11-602 3,784 2,138 697 3,153 1,028 11,602 3,784 2,138 697 3,153 1,028 11,602 3,784 2,138 697 3.153 1,028 11-602 3,784 2-138 697 3,153 1,028 11,602 3,784 6S YEAR 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 £990 1997 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 199K 1999 2909 200) 7002 20023 2004 2005 2006 200? 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2024 2015 2016 2017 7918 2019 202 2071 2022 292? 2024 2023 UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR INDUSTRIAL LOAD FORECAST LOW GROWTH MODERATE GROWTH HIGH GROWTH ENERGY PEAK ENERGY PEAK DNERGY PEAK USE DEMAND USE DEMAND USE DEMAND (Mwh/yr)(kw)(Muh/yr)(kw)(Muh/yr)(kw) 9,135 4,171 9,135 4,171 94135 4,171 10,318 4,712 11,501 3-252 11,669 5,328 11,501 5,252 13,868 6,332 14,789 6,753 12,685 5,792 16,234 7,413 17.742 8,101 13,868 6,332 18,601 8,493 20,611 9-411 15,05)6,873 20,967 9,574 23,480 10,722 16,234 7-413 22,1530 10,114 25,333 11,568 17,417 72953 23.333 10,655 27,018 12,337 18,601 8,493 24,517 11,195 28,872 13,283 19,784 9,034 25,700 11,735 30,893 14,106 20,967 9,574 26,883 12,275 32,746 14,953 20.967 9,574 26,883 12,275 33,583 15,335 29,967 9.574 26,883 12,275 36,096 16,482 20,967 9,574 26,683 12,275 37,938 17,323 20,967 9,574 26,883 12,275 39,781 18,165 70.967 9,574 26,883 12,275 41,623 19,006 20,967 9-574 26,883 12,275 43,466 19,847 20,967 9.574 26,883 32,275 45,308 20,689 20,967 9.574 26,883 12,275 46,983 21,453 20,967 9.574 26,883 12,275 48,658 22,218 20.967 9,574 26,883 12,275 50,333 22,983 20.967 9,574 26,883 12,275 50,333 22,983 20,967 9,574 26,883 12,275 50,333 22,983 20,967 9,574 26,883 12,275 50,333 22,983 20,967 9,574 26,883 12,275 50,333 22,983 20,967 9,574 26,883 12,275 50,333 22,963 20,967 9,574 26,883 12,275 50,333 22,983 20,967 9.574 26.883 12,275 50,333 22,983 20,967?9,574 26,883 12,275 50,333 22,983 20,967 9,574 26,883 12,275 50,333 22,983 20,967 9,574 26,883 12,275 50,333 22,983 20.967 9,574 26,883 12.275 50,333 22,983 20,967 9,574 26,883 12,275 50,333 22,983 20.967 9,574 26,883 12,275 50,333 22,983 20,967 9,574 26,883 12,275 50,333 22,983 20,967 9.574 26,883 12,275 50,333 22,983 20,967 9,574 26,883 12,275 50,333 22,983 20,967 9,574 26.883 12,275 50,333 22,983 20,967?9.574 26,883 12,275 50,333 22,983 20,967 9.574 26.883 12.275 50,333 22,983 20,967 9,574 26,883 12,275 50,333 22.983 09 YELR 1985 L986 1937 19KR lyca 3999 1993 1992 19923 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2002 2902 2903 2004 2095 2006 200? 2008 2009 20:0 2012) 7012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2917 2878 2019 2920 202) 7C0272 2022 7924 2025 UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR TOTAL ELECTRIC LOAD FORECAST LOW GROWTH SCENARIO CITY SERVICESRESIDENTIALCOMMERCTAL INDUSTRIAL TOTALS ENCRGY PEAK ENERGY PEAK ENERGY PEAK ENERGY PEAK ENERGY COINCIDENT USF.DEMAND USE DEMAND USE DEMAND USE DEMAND USE PEAK (Muh/yr)(kW)(Mwh/yr)(kW)(Mwh/yv)(kw)(MWh/yr)(kW)(MWh/yr)(kw) 2,510 1,433 578 264 1,439 469 9,135 4,171 13,663 _$199 2.677 1,528 689 315 1,468 479 10,318 4,712 15,152 5,766 2,849 1,626 804 367 1,497 488 11,501 5,252 16,652 6,336 3,027 1,728 923 422 1,527 498 12,685 5,792 18,162 6,911 3,088 1,762 942 430 1,558 508 13,668 6,332 19,455 7,403 1249 1,798 961 439 1,589 518 15,051 6.873 20,750 7,896 3,212 1,834 980 447 1,621 529 16,234 7413 22,047 8,389 3.277 1,870 999 436 1,653 539 17,417 7,953 23.346 8,884 3,342 1,908 1,019 465 1,686 550 18,601 8,493 24,648 9,379 3,409 1,946 1,040 475 1,720 561 19,784 9,034 25,952 9,875 3,477 1,985 1,061 484 1,754 572 20,967 9,574 27,259 10,372 3,347 2,024 1,082 494 1,789 584 20,967 9,574 27,385 10,420 3,618 2-065 1,103 304 1,825 595 20,967 9.574 27,513 10,469 3,690 2,106 1,125 314 1,861 607 20,967 9,574 27,644 10,519 3,764 2,148 1,148 524 1,899 619 20,967 9,574 27,778 10,570 3,839 2,191 1,171 535 1,937 632 20,967 9.574 27,914 10,622 3,916 2,235 1,194 545 1,975 644 20,967 9,574 28,053 10,675 3,994 2,280 1.218 556 2,015 657 20,967 9,574 28,194 10,728 4,074 2,325 1,243 56?2,055 670 20,967 9,574 28-339"10,783 4,156 2.372 1,267 579 2.096 684 20,967 9,574 28,486 10,8404,239 --2,419 1,293 590 2.138 697 20,967 9,574 28,637 10,897 4,239 2,419 1,293 390 2.138 697 20,967 9,574 28,637 10,897 4,239 2,419 1,293 590 2.138 697 20,967 9,574 28,637 10,897 4,239 2,419 1,293 590 2,138 697 20,967 9.574 28,637 10,897 4,239 2,419 1,293 590 2,138 697 20,967 9,574 28,637 10,897 4,239 2,419 1,293 590 2,138 697 20,967 9,574 28,637 10,897 4,239 2,419 1,293 599 2.138 697 20,967 9,574 28,637 10,897 4,239 2.419 1,293 590 2.138 697 20,967 9,574 28,637 10,897 4,239 2,419 1,293 590 2,138 697 20,967 9,574 28,637 10,897 4,239 2.419 1,293 590 2,138 697 20,967 9,574 28,637 10,897 4,239 2,419 1,293 590 2,138 697 20,967 9,574 28,637 10,897 4,239 2,419 1,293 590 2,138 697 20,967 9,574 28.637 10,897 4,239 2,419 1,293 590 2,138 697 20,96?9,574 28,637 10,897 4,239 2,419 1,293 590 2.138 697 20,96?9,574 28,637 10,897 4,239 2,419 1,293 599 2,138 697 20,967 9,574 28,637 10,897 4,239 2,419 1,293 590 2,238 697 20,967 9,574 28,637 10,897 6,239 2,419 1,293 590 2,138 697 20,967 9,574 28,637 10,897 4,229 2.419 1,293 590 2.138 697 20,967 9,574 28,637 10,897 4,239 2,419 1,293 590 2,138 697 20,967 9,574 28,637 10,897 4,229 2,419 1,293 590 2,138 697 20.967 9,574 28,637 10,897 4,239 2,419 1,293 590 2,138 697 20,967 9,574 28,637 10,897 T9 UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR TOTAL ELECTRIC LOAD FORECAST MODERATE GROWTH SCENARIO RESIDENTIAL COMMERCTAL CITY SERVICES INDUSTRIAL TOTALS INERGY PEAK ENERGY PEAK ENERGY PEAK ENERGY PEAK ENERGY COINCIDENT USE DEMAND USE DEMAND USE DEMAND USE DEMAND USE PEAK (Mun/yr)(kw)(Mwh/yr )(kW)(MIh/yr)(kw)(Mwh/yr )(kw)(MWh/yr )(kw) 2,520 1,433 578 264 1,439 469 9,135 4,171 13,663 5,199 2.734 1,561 703 321 1,497 488 11,501 5,252 16,435 6,254 2,973 1,697 836 382 1,556 508 13,868 6,332 19,233 76319 3.227 1,842 979 44?1,619 528 16,234 7.413 22.058 8,393 3.362 1,919 1,018 465 1,683 549 18,601 8,493 24,664 9,385 3.503 1,999 1,058 483 1,751 $71 20,967 9.574 274279 10,380 3,649 2,083 1,101 503 1,821 594 22,150 10.114 28,721 10,929 3,802 2,170 1,145 523 1.894 618 23,333 10,655 30,174 11,482 3,961 2,261)1,191 544 1,969 642 24-517 11,195 31,638 12,039 4.127 2-356 1,238 565 2,048 668 25-700 11,735 33,113 12,600 4,299 2,454 1,288 588 2.130 695 26,883 12,275 34,600 13,166 4.479 2.557 1,339 612 2,215 723 26,883 12,275 34,917 13,286 4,666 2,663 1,393 636 2-304 751 26,883 12,275 35,246 13,412 4.861 2.775 1,449 661 2,396 781 26,883 12,275 35,589 13,542 5,065 2,891 1,507 688 22492 813 26,883 12.275 35,946 13,678 5,276 3.011 1,567 715 2,592 845 26,883 12,275 36.317 13,819 5,496 3,137 1,629 744 2,695 879 26,883 12,275 364704 13,967 35-6726 3,268 1,695 774 2.803 914 26,883 12,275 37,106 14,120 5,965 3,404 1.762 805 2,915 951 26,883 12,275 37,525 14,279 6,214 3.547 1,833 837 3.032 989 26,883 12.275 37,961 14,445 6,473 3,694 1,906 870 3,153 1,028 26,883 12,275 38,415 14,618 6.473 3,694 1,906 870 3.153 1.028 26,883 12,275 38,415 14,618 6,473 3,694 1,906 870 3,153 1,028 26,883 12,275 38-415 14,618 6,473 3,694 1,906 870 3,153 1.028 26,883 12,275 38,415 14,618 6.473 3,694 1,906 870 3-153 1,028 26,883 12,275 38,415 14,618 6.473 3.694 1,906 870 3,153 1,028 26,883 12,275 38,415 14,618 6-473 3-694 1,906 870 34153 1,028 26,883 12,275 38,415 14,618 6,473 3,694 2,906 870 3,153 1,028 26,883 12,275 38,415 14,618 6,473 3,694 1,906 870 3.153 1,028 26,683 12,275 38,415 14,618 6.473 3,694 1,906 870 3.153 1,028 26,883 12,275 38.415 24,618 6,473 3,694 1,906 870 3.153 1,028 26,883 12,275 36,415 14,618 6.473 3,694 1,906 870 3.353 1.028 26,883 12,275 38,415 14,618 6,473 3,694 1,906 870 3,153 1,028 26,883 12,275 38,415 14,618 6.473 3.694 1.906 870 3,153 1,028 26,883 12,275 38,415 14,618 6,473 3,694 1,906 870 3,153 1.028 26,883 12,275 38,415 14,618 6,473 3-694 1,906 870 3-153 1,028 26,883 12.275 38.415 14,618 6,473 3,694 1,906 870 3,153 1,028 26,883 12,275 38,415 14,618 6,473 3,694 1,906 870 3.153 1,028 26,883 12,275 38,415 14,618 6,473 3,694 1,906 870 3,153 1,028 26,883 12,275 38,415 14,618 6,473 3,694 1,906 870 3.153 1,028 26,883 12,275 38,415 14,618 6,473 3,694 1,906 870 3,153 1,028 26,883 12,275 38-415 14-618 29 RESIDENTIAL ENERGY PEAK OSE DEMAND imMn/yr)tkwW) 2,510 1,433 2.924 1,669 3,399 1,940 3.944 2,251 4,394 2,508 4,894 2.794 3,452 3,112 6.072 3.466 6,763 3,860 7,532 4,299 8,388 4,788 9.320 5,314 10,335 5,899 $1,471 6,548 12,733 7,268 14,134 8,067 15,689 8,955 17.414 9,940 19,330 11,033 21,456 12,247 23,816 13,594 23,816 13,594 23,816 13,594 23.816 13,594 23,816 13,594 23,816 13.594 23,816 13,594 23,816 13,594 23,816 13,594 23,816 13,594 23,816 13,594 23,816 13,594 23,816 13,594 23,816 13,594 23,816 13,594 23,816 13,594 23,816 13,594 23,816 13,594 23,816 13,594 23,816 13,594 23-86 13,594 UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR TOTAL ELECTRIC LOAD FORECAST HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO COMMERCIAL ENERGY PEAK USE DEMAND (MWh/yr )(kw) 578 264 750 343 952 435 1,190 343 1,321 603 1,466 669 1,627 743 1,806 825 2,005 916 26225 1,016 2,470 1,128 2,742 1,252 3,044 1,390 3.378 1.543 3,750 1-712 4,163 1,901 4,620 2-110 5,129 2.6342 5,693 2,599 6.319 2,885 7,014 3,203 7,014 3,203 7,014 3,203 7,014 3,203 7,014 3.203 7,014 3,203 7,014 3,203 7,014 3,203 7,014 3,203 7-014 3.203 7,014 3,203 7,014 3,203 7,014 3,203 7,014 3,203 7,014 3,203 7,014 3,203 7,014 3,203 7,014 3,203 7.014 3,203 7,014 3,203 7,014 3,203 CITY SERVICES ENERGY USE (Mwh/yr) 1,439 1,597 1,773 1,968 2,185 2,425 2,692 2.988 3,316 3,681 4,086 '4,535 5-034 5,588 6,203 6,885 70642 8,483 9,416 10,452 11,602 11,602 11,602 11,602 11,602 11,602 11,602 11,602 11,602 11,602 11,602 11,602 11,602 11,602 11,602 11,602 11,602 11.602 11,602 11,602 11,602 PEAK DEMAND (kw) 469 521 578 642 712 791 878 974 1,082 1,201 1,333 1,479 1,642 1,823 2,023 2.246 2,493 2.767 3,071 3,409 3-784 3.784 3.784 3.784 3.784 3.784 3,784 3.784 3,784 3,784 3,784 3.784 3.784 3,784 3,784 3.784 3,784 3.784 3,784 3,784 3,784 INDUSTRIAL TOTALS ENERGY PEAK ENERGY COINCIDENT USE DEMAND USE PEAK (MWh/yr )(kw)(MWh/yr )(kw) 9/135 4,171 13,663 5,199 11,669 5,328 16,941 6,446 14,789 6.753 20,913 7,958 17.742 8,10)24,844 9,454 20,611 9,411 28,510 10,648 23,480 10,721 32,265 12,277 25,333 11,568 35,104 13,358 27,018 12,337 37,884 14,416 28,872 13,183 40,956 '15,584 30,893 14,106 44,331 16,869 32,746 14,953 47,690 18,147 33,583 15,335 *50,172 19,091 36,096 16,482 54,508 20,741 37,938 17,323 58,376 22,213 39,781 18,165 62,467 23,770 41,623 19,006 66,804 25,420 43,466 19,847 71-417 27,176 45,308 20,689 76,334 29,046 46,983 21-453 81,422 30,982 48,658 22,218 86.885 33,061 50,333 22,983 92,765 35,299 $0,333 22,983 92,765 35,299 50,333 22,983 92,765 35-299 50,333 22,983 92,765 35,299 50,333 22,983 92,765 35,299 50,333 22,983 92,765 35,299 50,333 22,983 92,765 35,299 50.333 22,983 92,765 35,299 50,333 22,983 92,765 35,299 $0,333 22,983 92,765 35.299 50,333 22,983 92,765 35,299 50,333 22,983 92.765 35,299 50,333 22,983 92,765 35,299 50,333:22,983 92,765 35,299 50,333 22,983 92,765 35,299 50,333 22,983 92,765 35-299 50,333 22,983 92,765 35-299 50,333 22,983 92,765 35,299 50,333 22,983 92,765 35,299 50,333 22,983 92,765 35,299 50,333 22,983 92,765 35,299 €9 TABLE 6 UNALASKA/OUTCH HARBOR BOTTOMFISH PROCESSING ENERGY ESTIMATES TO BE USED WITH ACRES'BEST-GUESS FORECAST DAMES &MOORE LOW BOTTOMFISH PORTION OF AREA CATCH PROCESSED IN UNALASKA/OUTCH HARBOR CATCH ESTIMATE 40 PERCENT 30 PERCENT 25PERCENTYEAR(10 1b)ENERGY (MWh)POWER (MW)ENERGY (MWh)POWER (MW)ENERGY (MWh)POWER (MW) 1980 .)0 0 0 0 0 0 1981 0 0 1)0 -0 0 0 1982 0 0 0 i)0 Q 0 1983 --0 )0 0 0 0 0 1984 "16 268 0 201 0 168 0 1985 55 1,474 1 1,106 0 921 0 1986 90 2,412 1 1,809 1 1,508 1 1987 120 3,216 1 2,412 1 2,010 1 1988 150 4,020 2 3,015 1 2,513 1 1989 190 5,092 2 3,819 2 3,183 1 1990 220 5,896 3 4,422 2 3,685 2 1991 260 6,968 3 5,226 2 4,355 2 1992 310 _6,308 4 6,231 3 5,193 2 1993 350 9,380 4 7,035 3 5,863 3 1994 400 10,720 5 8,040 4 6,700 3 1995 440 11,792 5 6,844 4 7,370 3 1996 550 14,740 7 >4,055 5 9,213 4 1997 660 17,688 8 13,266 6 11,055 5 1998 770 20,636 9 15,477 7 12,898 6 1999 880 23,584 1 17,688 8 14,740 7 2000 990 26,532 12 19,899 9 16,583 7 -2001 1,100 29,480 13 22,110 10 18,425 8 2002 1,200 32,160 14 24,120 ly 20,100 9 2003 1,300 34,840 16 26,130 12 21,775 10 2004 1,400 37,520 17 28,140 13 23,450 il (SOURCE:Acres American,Inc.,1984)9 APPENDIX B Energy Production of Power System Plans UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR ENERGY PRODUCTION LOW GROWTH SCENARIO BASE CASE. CAPACITY CAPACITY ADDITION/ ENERGY COINCIDENT DIESCL FIRM DIESEL ADDITION REPLACEMENT REPLACEMENT USE PEAK CAPACITY CAPACITY PRODUCTION SCHEDULE SCHEDULE SCHEDULE YELR (Muh/yr)(MW)(Mw)(Mw)(MWh/yr )(Mw)(MW)(Mw) 2985 13,663 5.20 3.9 2.5 13,663 0.00 0.00 0.00 1986 15,152 5.77 3.9 2.5 15,152 0.00 0.00 0.00 1987 16,652 6.34 9.5 6.7 16,652 5.60 0.00 5.60 1988 18,162 6.91 12.0 9.2 18.162 2.50 0.00 2.50 1989 19,455 7.40 12.0 9.2 19,455 0.00 0.00 0.00 1990 20.750 7.90 12.0 9.2 20.750 0.00 0.00 0.00 1992 22,047 8.39 12.0 9.2 22,047 0.00 0.00 0.00 1992 23.346 8.88 12.0 9.2 23.346 0.00 0.00 0.00 1993 24-648 9.38 14.5 11.7 24,648 2.50 0.00 2.50 1994 25-952 9.88 14.5 11.7 252952 0.00 0.00 0.00 1995 27,259 10.37 14.5 11.7 27,259 0.00 0.00 0.00 1996 27,385 10.42 14.5 11.7 27.385 0.00 0.30 0.30 199?27,513 10.47 14.5 11.7 27,513 0.00 0.60 0.60 1998 27,644 10.52 14.5 11.7 27,644 ;0.00 0.00 0.00 1999 27,778 10.57 14.5 1).7 27,778 0-30 0.00 0.00 22d 27,914 10.62 14.5 11.7 27,914 0.00 0.00 0.00 2001 28,053 10.67 14.5 11.7 28,053 0.00 0.60 0.60 2902 22,294 10.73 24.5 11.7 28,194 0.00 0.00 0.00 2003 28,339 10.78 14.5 11.7 28,339 0.00 0.00 '9.00 2004 28,486 10.84 14.5 11.7 28,486 0.00 0.92 0.92 2995 28,637 10.90 14.5 11.7 28,637 0.00 0.00 0.00 2006 28,637 10.90 14.5 11.7 28,637 0.00 0.00 0.00 290?28,637 10.90 14.5 11.7 28,637 0.00 5.60 5.60 2908 28,637 10.90 14.5 11.7 28.637 0.00 2.50 2.50 2009 28,627 10.90 14.5 11.7 28,637 0.00 0.00 0.00 20:0 28,637 10.90 14.5 11.7 28,637 0.00 0.00 0.00 251)23,637 10.90 14.5 11.7 28,637 0.00 0.00.0.00 2012 78.637 10.90 14.9 11.7 28-637 0.00 0.00 0.00 2013 28,63?10.90 14.5 11.7 28,637 0.00 2.50 2.50 2024 28,637 10.90 14.5 11.7 28,637 0.00 0.00 0.00 O15 28,637 10.90 14.5 11.7 28,637 0.00 0.00 0.00 2016 78.637 10.90 14.5 11.7 28.637 0.00 0.30 0.30 2017 28,637 10.90 14.5 11.7 28,637 0.00 0.60 0.60 2018 28,637 10.90 14.5 11.7 28,637 0.00 0.00 0.00 2019 28,637 10.90 14.5 11.7 28,637 0.00 0.00 0.00 2020 28,637 10.90 14.5 11.7 28,637 0.00 0.00 0.00 2021 28,637 10.90 14.5 11.7 28,637?0.00 0.60 0.60 2022 -28.637 10.90 14.5 11.7 28,637 0.00 0.00 0.00 2023 28,637 10.90 14.5 11.7 28,637 0.00 0.00 0.00 2924 28,637 10.90 14.5 11.7 28,637 0.00 0.92 0.92 2025 28,637 10.90 14.5 11.7 28,637 0.00 0.00 -0.00 $9 UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR ENERGY PRODUCTION LOvI GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE A(1)--GECTHERMAL TOTAL FLOW SYSTEM (ONE UNIT)DIESEL CAPACITY CAPACITY ADDITICN/ ENERGY COINCIDENT GEOTHERMAL DIESEL.FIRM GDOTHERMAL DIESEL ADDITION REPLACEMENT REPLACEMENT USE PEAK CAPACITY CAPACITY CAPACITY PRODUCTION PRODUCTION SCHEDULE SCHEDULE SCHEDULE YEAR (MUh/yr )(MW)(mW)(mw)(Mw)(MWh/yr )(MWh/yr )(mw)(Mw)(Mw) 1985 13,663 5.20 0 3.9 2.5 0 13,663 0.00 0.00 0.00 1986 15,152 5.77 0 3.90 2.5 0 15,152 0.00 0.00 0.00 1987 16,652 6.34 Q 9.5 6.7 0 16,652 5.60 0.00 5.60 1988 18,162 6.91 Q 12.0 9.2 Q 18,162 2.50 0.00 2.50 1989 19,455 7.40 0 12.0 9.2 0 19,455 0.00 0.00 0.00 1999 20,750 7.90 2.1 12.0 11.3 16,556 4,193 0.00 0.00 0.00 199}22,047 8.39 2.1 12.0 11.3 16,556 5,491 0.00 0.00 0.00 1992 23,346 8.88 2.1 12.0 11.3 16,556 6.790 0.00 0.00 0.00 1993 24,648 9.38 2.1 12.0 11.3 16,556 8,092 0.00 0.00 0.00 L994 25,952 9.88 2.1 12.0 11.3 16,556 9,396 :0.00 0.00 0.00 1995 27,259 10.37 2.1 12.0 11.3 16,556 10,702 0.00 0.00 0.00 2996 27,385 10.42 2.1 12.0 21.3 16,556 10,828 0.00 0.30 0.30 199?°27,513 10.47 2.1 12.0 11.3 16,556 10,957 0.00 0.60 0.60 1998 27.644 10.52 2.1 12.0 11.3 16,556 11,088 0.00 0.00 0.00 1999 27,778 10.57 2.1 12.0 11.3 16,556 11,221 0.00 0.00 0.00 2000 27.914 10.62 2.1 12.0 11.3 !16,556 11,357 0.00 0.00 0.00 2001 28,053 10.67 2.1 12.0 11.3 16,556 11,496 0.00 0.60 0.60 2002 28.194 10.73 2.1 12.0 11.3 16.556 11,638 0.00 0.00 0.00 2003 28,339 10.78 2.1 12.0 11.3 16,556 11,783 0.00 0.00 0.00 2004 28,486 10.84 2.1 12.0 11.3 16,556 11,930 0.00 0.92 0.92 2095 28,637 10.90 2-1 12.0 11.3 16,556 12,080 0.00 0.00 0.00 2006 28,637 10.90 2.1 12.0 11.3 16,556 12,080 0.00 0.00 0.00 2907 28,637 10.90 2.1 12.0 11.3 16,556 12,080 0.00 5.60 5.60 2908 28,637 10.90 2.1 12.0 11.3 16,556 12,080 0.00 2.50 2.50 2009 28,637 10.90 2.1 12.0 11.3 16,556 12,080 0.00 0.00 0.00 2010 28,637 10.90 2.1 12.0 11.3 16,556 12,080 0.00 0.00 .0.00 20%)28,637 10.90 2.1 12.0 11.3 16,556 12,080 0.00 0.00 0.00 2912 28,637 10.90 2-1 12.0 11.3 16,556 12,080 0.00 0.00 0.00 2013 28,637 10.90 2-1 12.0 11.3 16,556 12,080 0.00 0.00 0.00 2334 28,637 10.90 2.1 12.0 11.3 16,556 12,080 0.00 0.00 0.00 201s 28,637 10.90 2.1 12.0 11.3 16,556 12,080 0.00 0.00 0.00 202 28,637 10.90 2.2 312.0 11.3 16,556 12,080 0.00 0.30 0.30 2017 28,637 10.90 2.1 12.0 11.3 16,556 12,080 0.00 0.60 0.60 2018 28.637 10.90 2.1 12.0 11.3 16,556 12,080 0.00 0.00 0.00 2019 28,637 10.90 2.1 12.0 11.3 16,556 12,080 0.00 0.00 0.00 2020 28.637 10.90 2.!12.9 11.3 16,556 12,080 0.00 0.00 0.00 202°28,637 10.90 2.1 12.0 11.3 16,556 12,080 0.00 0.60 0.60 7022 28.637 10.90 2.1 12.0 11.3 16,556 12,080 0.00°0.00 0.00 29022 28,637 10.90 2.1 12.0 11.3 16,556 12,080 6.00 0.00 0.00 2024 28.637 10.90 2.1 12.0 11.3 16,556 12,080 0.00 0.92 0.92 2025 28,637 10.90 2.1 12.0 11.3 16,556 12,080 0.00 0.00 0.00 99 UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR ENERGY PRODUCTION LOW GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE A(2)--GROTHERMAL TOTAL FLOW SYSTEM (TWO UNITS)DIESEL CAPACITY CAPACITY ADDITION/ ENERGY COINCIDENT GEOTHERMAL DIESEL FIRM GEOTHERMAL DIESEL ADDITION REPLACEMENT REPLACEMENT USE PEAK CAPACITY CAPACTTY CAPACITY PRODUCTION PRODUCTION SCHEDULE SCHEDULE SCHEDULEYEAR(Muh/yr )(mm)(MW)(mw)(Mw)(Mwh/yr )(Mwh/yr )(mw)(Mw)(Mw) 1985 13-663 5.20 0 3.9 2.5 0 13,663 0.00 0.00 0.00 1986 15,152 5.77 0 3.9 2-5 [)25,152 0.00 0.00 0.00 1987 16,652 6.34 0 9.5 6.7 9 16,652 5.60 0.00 5.60 1988 18,162 6.91 0 12.0 9.2 Oo 18,162 2.50 0.00 2.50 1939 19,455 7.40 te)12.0 9.2 i)19,455 0.00 0.00 0.00 1990 20,750 7.90 4.2 12.0 13.4 18,675 2.075 0.00 0.00 9.00 199)22,047 8.39 4.2 12.0 13.4 19,842 2.205 0.00 0.00 0.00 1992 23.346 8.88 4.2 12.0 13.4 21,012 2.335 0.00 0.00 0.00 1993 24,648 9.38 4.2 12.0 13.4 22,183 2,465 0.00 0.00 0.00 1994 25,952 9.88 4-2 12.0 13.4 23,357 2,595 0.00 0.00 0.00 1995 27,239 10.37 4.2 12.0 13.4 24,533 2.726 0.00 9.00 0.00 2996 27.385 10.42 4.2 12.0 13.4 24,646 2.738 0.00 0.30 0.30 1997 27-513 10.47 4.2 12.0 13.4 24,762 2.751 0.00 0.60 0.60 1998 27,644 10.52 4.2 12.0 13.4 24,880 2.764 0.00 0.00 0.00 1999 27,778 10.57 4.2 12.0 13.4 23,000 2.778 0.00 0.00 0.00 2900 27,914 10.62 4.2 12.0 13.4 25,122 2.791 0.00 0.00 0.00 2001 28,053 10.67 4.2 12.0 13.4 .25,247 2,805 0.00 0.60 0.60 2002 28,194 10.73 4.2 12.0 13.4 25-375 2.819 0.00 0.00 0.00 2963 28,339 10.78 4.2 12.0 13.4 25,505 2.834 9.00 0.00 0.00 2004 78,486 10.84 4.2 12.0 13.4 25,638 2.849 0.00 0.92 0.92 2005 28,637 10.90 4.2 12.0 13.4 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 7006 28,637 10.90 4.2 12.0 13.4 25-773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 200?28,637 10.90 4.2 12.0 13.4 25.773 2,864 0.00 §.60 5.60 2008 28,637 10.90 4.2 12.0 13.4 25.773 2,864 0.00 2.50 2.50 2009 28,637 10.90 4.2 12.0 13.4 25-773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 2030 28,637 10.90 4.2 12.0 13.4 25,773 2-864 0.00 0.00 0.00 2012 28,637 10.90 4.2 12.0 13.4 25-773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 2012 28,637 10.90 4.2 12.0 13.4 25,773 2.864 0.00 0.00 0.00 2013 28,637 10.90 4.2 12.0 13.4 25,773 2.864 0.00 0.00 0.00 2014 2B .637 10.90 4.2 12.0 13.4 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 9.00 2015 28,637 10.90 4.2 12.0 13.4 25.773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 2016 28,637 10.90 4.2 12.0 "433.4 25,773 2.864 0.00 0.30 0.30 202.7 28,637 10.90 4.2 12.0 13.4 25.773 2,864 0.00 0.60 0.60 2018 28,637 10.90 4.2 12.0 13.4 25-773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 2019 28,637 10.90 4.2 12.0 13.4 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 2020 28.637 10.90 4.2 -12.0 13.4 25-773 2,864 0.00 0.00 9.00 2021 28,637 10.90 4.2 12.0 13.4 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.60 0.60 2022 28.637 10.90 4-2 12.0 13.4 235-773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 POR?28,637 10.90 4.2 12.0 13.4 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 2924 28,637 10.90 4.2 12.0 13.4 25.773 2.864 -0.00 0.92 0.92 ©2025 78,637 10.90 4.2 12.0 13.4 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 £9 taeUNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR ENERGY PRODUCTION LOW GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE A(3)---GEOTHERMAL TOTAL FIO)SYSTEM (THREE UNITS)DIESEL CAPACITY CAPACITY ADDITION/ ENCRGY COINCIDENT GBOTHERMAL DIESEL FIRM GBOTHERMAL DIESEL ADDITION REPLACEMENT REPLACEMENT USE PEAK CAPACITY CAPACITY CAPACITY PRODUCTION PRODUCTION SCHEDULE SCHEDULE SCHEDULE YEAR (Muh/yr }(MW)(MW)(Mw)(Mw)(MWh/yr )(Mwh/yr }(Mw)(Mw)(mw) 1985 13,663 5.20 0 3.9 2.5 0 13,663 0.00 0.00 0.00 1986 15,152 5.77 ()3.9 2.5 )15,152 0.00 0.00 0.00 193?16,632 6.34 Oo.9.5 6.7 0 16,652 5.60 0.00 5.60 1988 18,162 6.91 0 12.0 9.2 ()18,162 2.50 0.00 2.50 1989 19,455 7.40 0 12.0 9.2 0 19,455 0.00 0.00 0.00 1990 20,750 7.90 6.3 12.0 15.5 18,675 2-075 0.00 0.00 0.00 1992 22,047 8.39 6.3 12.0 15.5 19,842 2.205 0.00 0.00 0.00 1992 23,346 8.88 6.3 12.0 15.5 21,012 2,335.0.00 0.00 0.00 1993 24,648 9.38 6.3 12.0 15.5 22,183 2,465 0.00 0.00 0.00 1994 25,952 9.88 6.3 12.0 15.5 23,357 2,595 0.00 0.00 0.00 1995 27,239 10.37 6.3 12.0,15.5 24,533 2-726 0.00 0.00 0.00 1996 27,385 10.42 6.3 12.0 °15.5 24,646 2.738 0.00 0.30 0.30 1997 27,513 10.47 6.3 12.0 15.5 24,762 2,751 0.00 0.60 0.60 1998 27.644 10.52 6.3 12.0 15.5 24,880 2,764 0.00 0.00 0.00 1999 27,778 10.57 "6.3 12.0 15.5 25,000 2.778 0.00 0.00 0.00 2009 27,914 10.62 6.3 12.0 15.5 25,122 2,791 0.00 0.00 0.00 2002 28,053 10.67 6.3 12.0 15.5 25,247 2,805 0.00 0.60 0.60 2002 28,194 10.73 °6.3 12.0 15.5 25,375 2,819 0.00 0.00 0.00 2003 28,339 10.78 6.3 12.0 15.5 25,505 2,834 0.00.0.00 0.00 7004 28,486 10.84 6.3 12.0 15.5 25,638 2,849 0.00 0.92 0.92 2005 28,637 10.90 6.3 12.0 15.5 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 2006 28.637 10.90 6.3 12.0 15.5 25.773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 2007 28,637 10.90 6.3 12.0 15.5 23,773 .2,864 0.00 5.60 5.60 2908 28,637 10.90 6.3 12.0 15.5 25,773 2,864 0.00 2.50 2.50 2009 28,637 10.90 6.3 12.0 15.5 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 2010 28,637 10.90 6.3 12.0 .15.5 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 2022 28,637 10.90 6.3 12.0 15.5 25.773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 2012 28.637 10.90 6.3 12.0 15.5 25.773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 2023 28,637 10.90 6.3 12.0 15.5 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 2914 28,637 10.90 6.3 12.0 15.5 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 2015 28,637 10.90 6.3 12.0 15.5 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 2016 28.637 10.90 6.3 12.0 15.5 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.30 0.30 2017 28,637 -10.90 6.3 12.0 15.5 25-773 2,864 0.00 0.60 0.60 2018 78,637 10.90 6.3 12.0 15.5 25-773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 20:9 28,637 10.90 6.3 12.0 15.5 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 2020 28,637 10.90 6.3 12.0 15.5 25.773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 2021 28,637 10.90 6.3 12.0 15.5 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.60 0.60 2072 28,637 10.90 6.3 12.0 15.5 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 2023 28,637 10.90 6.3 12.0 15.5 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 2024 28,637 20.90 6.3 12.0 15.5 25,773 2,864 0.00"0.92 0.92 2025 28,637 10.90 .6.3 12.0 15.5 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 89 JNALASKO/DUTCH HERBOR ENERGY PRODUCTION LOW GROWTH SCENSR20 ALTERNATIVE 4£(4)---GIOTHERMAL TOTAL FLOW SYSTEM (FOUR UNITS)DICSEL CAPACITY CAPACITY =LDDITION/ EXERGY COINCIDENT GOOTHERMAL DIESEL FIRM GEOTHCRMAL DTESEL ADDITION REPLACEMENT RECLACEMENT USE PEAK COP.CITY CAPACITY CAPACITY PRODUCTION PRODUCTION SCHEDULE SCHEDULE SCHEDULE YESR (Mvin/yr)(Mu)(Mw)(mw)(MW)(Mwin/yr )(MWh/yr )(Mw)(MW)(MW) 2985 13,663 5.20 0 3.9 2.5 [e)13,663 0.00 0.00 0.00 1986 15.152 5.77 0 3.9 2.5 (e)15.152 0.00 0.00 0.00 1987 16,652 6.34 0 9.5 6.7 i?)16,652 5.60 0.00 5.60 2988 18.162 6.91 i')12.0 9.2 (*)18,162 2.50 0.00 2.50 1989 19,455 7.40 ce)12.0 9.2 0 19,455 0.00 0.00 0.00 1990 20.750 7.90 8.4 12.0 17.6 18,675 2,075 0.00 0.00 0.00 19917 22.047 8.39 8.4 12.0 17.6 19,842 .2.205 0.00 0.00 0.00 1992 23,346 8.88 8.4 12.0 17.6 21.012 2.335 0.00 0.00 0.00 1993 24,648 9.38 8.4 12.0 17.6 22,183 2.465 0.00 0.00 0.00 1994 25,952 9.88 8.4 12.0 17.6 23,357 2,595 0.00 0.00 0.00 1995 27,259 10.37 8.4 12.0 17.6 24,533 2.726 0.00 0.00 0.00 1996 27,385 10.42 8.4 12.0 17.6 24,646 2,738 0.00 0.30 0.30 1997 27,513 10.47 8.4 12.0 17.6 24,762 2.751 0.00 0.60 0.60 1998 27.644 10.52 8.4 12.0 17.6 24,880 2.764 0.00 0.00 0.00 1999 27,778 10.57 8.4 12.0 17.6 25,000 2.778 0.00 0.00 0.00 2000 27,914 10.62 8.4 12.0 17.6 25.122 2,791 0.00 0.00 0.00 2001 28,053 10.67 8.4 12.0 17.6 25,247 2.805 0.00 0.60 0.60 2002 28,194 10.73 8.4 12.0 17.6 25,375 2.819 0.00 0.00 0.00 2003 28,339 10.78 8.4 12.0 17.6 25,505 1 2,834 0.00 0.00 0.00 2004 28.486 10.84 8.4 12.0 17.6 25,638 2,849 0.00 0.92 0.92 2005 28,637 10.90 8.4 12.0 17.6 23,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 2006 28.637 10.90 8.4 12.0 17.6 254773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 2007 28-637 10.90 8.4 12.0 17.6 25,773 2,864 0.00 5.60 5.60 2008 28,637 10.90 8.4 12.0 17.6 25-773 2,864 0.00 2.50 2.50 2009 28,637 10.90 8.4 12.0 17.6 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 2010 28,637 10.90 8.4 12.0 17.6 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 2011 28,637 10.90 8.4 12.0 17.6 25,773 2.864 0.00 0.00 0.00 2022 28.637 10.90 8.4 12.0 17.6 25.773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 2013 28,637 10.90 8.4 12.0 17.6 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 2014 28.637 10.90 8.4 12.0 17.6 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 2013 28,63?10.90 8.4 12.0 17.6 25,773 2-864 0.00 0.0¢0.00 2016 28.637 10.90 8.4 12.0 17.6 25.773 2.864 0.00 0.30 0.30 2017 28,637 10.90 8.4 12.0 17.6 25,773 2-864 0.00 0.60 0.66 2018 28,637 10.90 8.4 12.0 17.6 "25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 2019 28,637 10.90 8.4 12.0 17.6 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 2020 28.637 10.90 8.4 12.0 17.6 25.773 2,664 0.00 0.00 0.00 2023 26,637 10.90 8.4 12.0 17.6 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.60 0.606 2022 28.637 10.90 8.4 12.0 17.6 25.773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 2023 28,637 10.90 8.4 12.0 17.6 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.06 2024 28,637 10.90 8.4 12.0 17.6 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.92 0.92 2025 28.637 10.90 8.4 12.0 17.6 25,773 2-864 0.00 0.00 0.00 69 Aeagad.idobetosaesoopeer)aenNay249ODMoteMwONfy'333SrototeOG088NhVioteNDiwiUNALASKA/DUTCH HARSOR ENERGY PRODUCTION LOW GROWTH SCENAaRTO ALTERNATIVE A(3)--GEOTHERMAL TOTAL FLOW SYSTEM (FIVE UNITS)°DIESEL CAPACITY CAPACITY ADDITION/ ENERGY COINCIDENT GEOTHERMAL DITSIL.FIRM GEOTHERMAL DIESEL ADDITION REPLACEMENT REPLACEMENT USE PEAK CAPACITY CAPACITY CAPACITY PRODUCTION PRODUCTION SCHEDULE SCHEDULE SCHEDULE iMVIn/y )(MW)(MW)(Mu)(MW)(MWh/yr )(MwWh/yr)(mw)(Mw)(Mw) 13,663 5.20 0 3.9 2.5 i°)13,663 0.00 0.00 0.00 13,352 5.77 0 3.9 2.5 0 15-152 0.00 0.00 0.00 16,652 6.34 Q 9.58 6.7 0 16,652 5.60 0.00 5.60 18,162 6.91 )12.0 9.2 (°)18,162 2.50 9.00 2.50 19,4655 7.40 0 12.0 9.2 0 19,455 0.00 0.00 0.00 20.750 7.90 10.5 42.0 19.7 18.675 2,075 0.00 0.00 0.00 22,047 8.39 10.5 12.0 19.7 19,842 2-205 0.00 0.00 0.00 23,346 8.88 10.5 12.0 19.7 21,012 2.335 0.00 0.00.0.00 24,648 9.38 10.5 12.0 19.7 22,183 2,465 ©0.00 0.00 0.00 25.942 9.88 10.5 12.0 19.7 23,357 2,595 0.00 0.00 0.00 27,259 10.37 10.5 12.0 19.7 24,533 2,726 0.00 0.00 0.00 27,385 10.42 10.5 12.0 19.7 24,646 2,738 0.00 0.30 0.30 27,313 10.47 10.5 12.0 19.7 24,762 2-751 0.00 0.60 0.60 27,644 10.52 10.5 12.0:19.7 24,880 2.764 0.00 0.00 0.00 27,778 10.57 10.5 12.0 19.7 25,000,2-778 0.00 0.00 0.00 27,914 10.62 10.5 12.0 19.7 25,122 2,791 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,053 10.67 10.5 12.0 19.7 25.247 2,805 0.00 0.60 0.60 28,194 10.73 10.5 12.0 19.7 25,375 2,819 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,339 10.78 210.5 12.0 19.7 235,505 2,834 0.00 0.00 0.00 26,486 10.84 10.5 12.0 19.7 25,638 2,849 0.00 0.92 0.92 28,63?10.99 10.5 12.0 19.7 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 28.637 10.90 10.5 12.0 19.7 25.773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,637 10.90 10.5 12.0 19.7 25,773 2,864 0.00 5.60 5.60 28,637 10.90 10.5 12.0 19.7 25.773 2.864 0.00 2.50 2.50 28,637 10.90 10.5 12.0 19.7?23,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 23.637 10.90 10.5 32.0 19.7 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,637 10.90 10.5 12.0 19.7 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,6347 10.90 10.5 12.0 19.7 25.773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 28.637 10.90 20.5 12.0 19.7 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,637 10.90 10.5 12.0 19.7 25.773 2.864 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,637 10.90 10.5 12.0 19.7 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 28.637 10.90 10.5 12.9 19.7 25,773 2.864 0.00 0.30 0.30 28,637 10.90 10.5 12.6 19.7 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.60 0.60 23,637 10.90 10.5 12.0 19.7 25.773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,637 10.90 20.5 12.0 19.7 25,4773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,637 10.90 10.5 12.0 19.7 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,637 10.90 10.5 12.0 19.7 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.60 0.60 283,637 10.90 10.5 12.0 19.7 23,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,637 10.90 10.5 12.0 19.7 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 23,637 10.90 10.5 12.0 19.7 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.92 0.92 28,637 10.90 10.5 12.0 19.7 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 YER T9RS 1986 19g? 19668 1989 2.790 199° aq? 1993 1994 2995 1996 1997 1998 21999 2900 2004 2002 2003 7904 2005 2006 200? 2oo8 2009 JoebyelosOt3papetotoWawisteoOorareNogaFUNALASKA/DUTCHT HARBOR ENERGY PRODUCTION LOW GROWTH SCEN&RIO ALTERNATIVE A(6)--GEOTRERMAL TOTAL FLOW SYSTEM (SIX UNITS) ENCPGY COINCIDENT GHOTHERMAL USF. t*wr/yr) 13,663 13,1252 16,652 18,162 19,455 2,750 22,94? 23,346 24,648 25-952 27,259 27,385 27-3513 27,644 27,778 27.914 28,053 28.194 28,339 28,486 28,637 28,637 28-637 28,637 28,63? 28,637 28,637 28,637 28,637 28.637 28,637 28,637 29.637 28.637 28,637 28,637 28,637 28,637 28,637 28.63? 29,637 PEAK (MW) 5.20 5-77 6.34 6.91 7.40 7.90 8.39 8.88 9.38 9.88 10.37 10.42 10.47 10.52 10.57 10.62 10.67 10.73 10.78 10.84 10.90 10.90 10.90 10.90 10.90 10.90 10.90 10.90 10.90 10.90 10.90 10.90 10.90 10.90 1¢.90 10.90 10.90 10.90 10.90 20.90 10.90 OTESEL CAPACITY (Mv)«elitedllediSodSocicoeNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNOWWwW.ma:.etlalllexiledalllaxlllacladileclllalllelladilollcelSCOKTKTCTCOCOSCOCODOOCOOOOFZOOONDON«12.0 aeeeeeNNNNONWwte*.>toCoO000006FIRM GDOTHERMAL CAPACITY PRODUCTION (MwWh/yr)oooo°o18,675 19,842 21,012 22,183 23,357 24,533 24,646 24,762 24,880 25,00 25-12 25,247 25,375 25,505 25,638 254773 25,773 25,773 25.773 25.773 25.773 25,773 254773 25-773 25.773 25,773 25,773 25-773 25.773 25,773 25,773 25,773 25,773 25,773 25.773 25,773 DIESEL PRODUCTION (MWh/yr ) 13-663 15,152 16,652 18-162 19,455 2,075 2-205 2,335 2-465 2.595 2,726 2.738 2,752 2.764 2.778 2.791 2,805 2,819 2-834 2,849 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 eo2©©©8ee@78©©©©©©©©©©©©88ewoonoocancocdcoeocoeoouraodoowoocooanocoanwododrsoscocodcscsoOnoocoogoocooocoooooocoeoonooocoooeodcoe0esec9o0aco0ocodoee-e-e-E-8-8-S-E-E-E-E-E-e-E-Eeee-e-e-8-2eee-e-e-e-e-e-e)SBSSOSOSSOSCSTOOSOSOOSOSSSSSOSOSSSESSESESSFOOPOOOOOPOPOPERSOeSecoscoscoodcoocooooooonvocoocoocoeocoecoococooocecoocescooooooo0oocooocoooo9oocoooeocooo9coeocooocooooeodcsoe.PyADDITION/ REPLACEMENT REPLACEMENT SCHEDULE (Mw) 0.00 9.00 5.60 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 .0.00 0.00 0.30 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.92 0.00 9.00 5.60 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.30 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.92 0.00 TZ URALASKA/DUTCH RARBOR ENERGY FRODUCTION LOv GROWTH SCENSRIO ALTERN&STIVE B(1)--GDOTUERMAL GINARY SYSTEM (ONE UNIT)DIESEL, .CAPACITY CAPACITY EDDITION/ ENCRGY COINCIDENT GEOTHERMAL DIESEL FIRM GEOTHERMAL DICSEI,ADDITION REPLACEMENT REPLACEMCNT USE PEAK CAPACITY CAPACITY CAPACITY PRONDUCTION PRODUCTION SCHEDULE SCHEDULE SCHEDULE YEAR (Mun /yr)}(MW)(Mw)(MW)(MW)(MWh/yr )(Mwh/yr)(MW)(Mw)(MW) 1985 13,663 5.20 0.0 3.9 2.5 (e)13,663 0.00 0.00 0.00 31986 15,152 5.77 0.0 3.9 2.5 (e)15,152 0.00 0.00 0.00 1987 16,652 6.34 0.0 9.5 6.7 (*)16,652 5.60 0.00 5.60 1988 18.162 6.91 0.0 12.0 9.2 (*)18,162 2.50 0.00 2.50 1989 19,455 7.40 0.0 12.0 9.2 (*)19,455 0.00 0.00 0.00 1990 20,750 7.90 3.4 12.0 12.6 18,675 2,075 0.00 0.00 0.00 1991 22-047 8.39 3.4 12.0 12.6 19,842 2,205 0.00 0.00 0.00 1992 23,346 8.88 3.4 12.0 12.6 21,012 2,335 0.00 0.00 0.00 1993 24,648 9.38 3.4 12.0 12.6 22,183 2,465 0.00 0.00 0.00 1994 25,952 9.88 3.4 12.0 12.6 23-357 2,595 0.00 0.00 0.00 1995 27,259 10.37 3.4 12.0 12.6 26,411 847 0.00 0.00 0.00 1996 27,385 10.42 3.4 12.0 12.6 26-411 973 0.00 0.30 0.30 1997 27,513 10.47 3.4 12.0 12.6 26,411 1,102 0.00 0.60 0.60 1998 27.644 10.52 3.4 12.0 12.6 26-411 1,233 0.00 0.00 0.00 1999 27,778 10.5?3.4 12.0 12.6 26,411 1,366 -0.00 0.00 0.00 2000 27,914 10.62 3.4 12.0 12.6 26,411 1,502 0.00 0.00 0.00 2001 28,053 10.67 3.4 12.0 12.6 26,411 1,641 0.00 0.60 0.60 2002 28,194 10.73 3.4 12.0 12.6 26,411 1,783 0.00 0.00 0.00 2003 28,339 10.78 3.4 12.0 12.6 26-411,1,928 0.00 0.00 0.00 2004 28.486 10.84 3.4 12.0 12.6 26,412 2,075 0.00 0.92 0.92 2005 28,637 10.90 3.4 12.0 12.6 26,411 2,225 0.00 0.00 0.00 2006 28,637 10.90 3.4 12.0 12.6 26,411 2,225 0.00 0.00 0.00 2007 28.637 10.90 3.4 12.0 12.6 26-411 2,225 0.00 5.60 5.60 2008 28.637 10.90 3.4 12.0 12.6 26,411 2,225 0.00 2.50 2.50 2009 28,637 10.90 3.4 12.0 12.6 26,412 2,225 0.00 0.00 0.00 2010 28,637 10.90 3.4 12.0 12.6 26-411 2,225 0.00 0.00 0.00 2011 28,637 10.90 3.4 12.0 12.6 26,411 2,225 0.00 0.00 0.00 2012 28,637 10.90 3.4 12.0 12.6 26,411 2,225 *0.00 0.00 0.00 2013 28,637 10.90 3.4 12.0 12.6 26,411 2,225 0.00 0.00 0.00 2014 28,637 10.90 3.4 12.0 12.6 26,411 2,225 0.00 0.00 0.00 20:5 28,637 10.90 3.4 12.0 12.6 26,411 2,225 0.00 0.00 0.00 2016 28,637 10.90 3.4 12.0 12.6 26,411 2.225 0.00 0.30 0.30 2017 28,637 10.90 3.4 12.0 12.6 26,411 2.225 0.00 0.60 0.60 2018 78.637 10.90 3.4 12.0 12.6 26,411 2,225 0.00 0.00 0.00 2019 28,637 10.90 3.4 12.0 12.6 26,411 2,225 0.00 0.00 0.00 2020 28,637 10.90 3.4 12.0 12.6 26-411 2,225 0.00 0.00 0.00 2021 28,637 10.90 3.4 12.0 12.6 26,411 2,225 0.00 0.60 0.60 2022 28,637 10.90 3.4 12.0 12.6 26,411 2,225 0.00 0.00 0.00 2023 28,637 10.90 3.4 12.0 12.6 26-411 2-225 0.00 0.00 0.00 2024 28,637 10.90 3.4 12.0 12.6 26,411 2,225 0.00 0.92 0.92 2025 28,637 10.90 3.4 12.0 12.6 26,411 2,225 0.00 0.00 0.00 cl URALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR ENERGY PRODUCTION LOW GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE B(2)--GROTHERMAL BINARY SYSTEM (TWO UNITS)DIESEL CAPACITY CAPACITY ADDITION/ ENERGY COINCIDENT GEOTHERMAL DITSET.FIRM GEOTHERMAL DIESEL §ADDITION REPLACEMENT REPLACEMENT USE PEAK CAPACITY CAPACITY CAPACITY PRODUCTION PRODUCTION SCHEDULE SCHEDULE SCHEDULEYEAR(4vih/yr)(Mw)(mv)(mw)(mw)(MWh/yr)(MWh/yr)(Mw)(Mw)(Mw) 1985 13,663 5.20 0.0 3.9 2.5 0 13,663 0.00 0.00 0.00 1986 15,152 5.77 0.0 3.9 2.5 (9)15.152 0.00 0.00 90.00 1987 16,652 6.34 0.0 9.5 6.7 0 16,652 S.60 0.00 5.60 1988 18,162 6.91 0.0 12.0 9.2 (]16,162 2.50 0.00 2.50 1989 19,455 7.40 0.0 12.0 9.2 0 19,455 0.00 0.00 0.00 1990 20,750 7.90 6.7 12.0 15.9 18,675 2.075 0.00 0.00 0.00 1992 22,047 8.39 6.7 12.0 15.9 19,842 2,205 0.00 0.00 0.00 1992 23,346 8.88 6.7 12.0 15.9 21,012 2,335 0.00 0.00 0.00 1993 24,648 9.38 6.7 12.0 15.9 22,183 2,465 0.00 0.00 0.00 1994 23.952 9.88 6.7 12.0 15.9 23,357 2,595 0.00 0.00 0.00 1993 27,259 10.37 6.7?12.0 15.9 24,533 2-726 0.00 0.00 0.00 1996 27,385 10.42 6.7 12.0 15.9 24,646 2,738 0.00 0.30 0.30 1997 27,513 10.47 6.7 12.0 15.9 24,762 2-751 0.00 0.60 0.60 1998 27,644 10.52 6.7 12.0 15.9 24,880 2-764 0.00 0.00 0.00 1999 27,778 10.57 6.7 12.0 15.9 25,000 2.778 0.00 0.00 0.00 7OCcO 27,914 10.62 6.7 12.0 15.9 25,122 2.791 0.00 0.00 0.00 2901 28,053 10.67 6.7?12.0 15.9 25,247 2,805 0.00 0.60 0.60 2002 28,194 10.73 6.7 12.0 15.9 25,375 2-819 0.00 0.00 0.00 2903 28,339 10.78 6.7 12.0 15.9 25,505 2,834 0.00 0.00 0.00 2904 28,486 10.84 6.7 12.0 15.9 25,638 2,849 0.00 0.92 0.92 2005 28,637 10.90 6.7 12.0 15.9 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 2006 26,637 10.90 6.7 12.0 15.9 25.773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 2007 23,637 10.90 6.7 12.0 15.9 25.773 2,864 0.00 5.60 5.60 7008 28,637 10.90 6.7 12.0 15.9 25.773 2,864 0.00 2.50 2.50 2909 28,637 10.90 6.7 12.0 15.9 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 2010 28,637 10.90 6.7 12.0 15.9 25.773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 290k:28,637 10.90 6.7 12.0 15.9 25.4773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 2012 78,637 10.90 6.7 12.0 15.9 25.773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 2GL4 28,637 10.90:6.7 12.0 15.9 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 2014 78,637 10.90 6.7 12.0 15.9 25.773 2.864 0.00 0.00 0.00 2015 28,637 10.90 6.7 12.0 15.9 25.773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 2016 28,637 10.90 6.7 12.0 15.9 254773 2,864 0.00 0.30 0.30 2017 28,637 10.90 6.7 12.0 15.9 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.60 0.60 7018 28,637 10.90 6.7 12.0 15.9 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 2019 28,637 10.90 6.7 12.0 15.9 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 2920 28,63)10.90 6.7 12.0 15.9 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 2022 28.637 10.90 6.7 12.0 15.9 25.773 2,864 0.00 0.60 0.60 2022 78.637 10.90 6.7 12.0 -25.9 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 2023 28,637 10.90 6.7 12.0 15.9 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 3024 28.637 10.90 6.7 12.0 15.9 25.773 2.864 0.00 0.92 0.92 2025 28,637 10.90 6.7 12.0 15.9 25,773 2.864 0.00 0.00 0.00 SONGAbbobwbotubwNwOOBDUNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR ENERGY PRODUCTION LOW GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE B(3)--GEOTHERMAL BINARY SYSTEM (THREE UNITS) ENFRGY COINCIDENT GEOTHERMAL USE - (MVih/yr) 13,663 15,152 16,652 18.162 19,455 20.750 22,047 23,346 24,648 25,952 27,259 27,385 27,513 27,644 27,778 27,914 28-053 28.194 28,339 78.486 28,637 28,637 28.637 28,637 28,637 28,637 28,637 8,637 28,637 28,637 28,637 28,637 28,637 28,637 28,637 28.637 28,637 28,637 28,637 28,637 28,637 PEAK (MW) 5.20 5.77 6.34 6.91 7.40 7-90 6.39 8.88 9.38 9.88 10.3? 10.42 10.4? 10.52 10.57 10.62 10.67 10.73 10.78 10.84 10.90 10.90 10.90 10.90 10.90 10.90 10.90 10.90 10.90 10.90 10.90 10.90 10.90 10.90 10.90 10.90 10.90 10.90 10.90 10.90 10.90 CAPACITY (MW)+..CdldiledibediocillSelallsedooogooocooooooocoo0ccoecoooeoeoc7eSCOOK0SGDCO0RD00000500000000iadndit -di=asalteiOeoololoolotodoeolNNNNNNNWNOOOWWwW°.Me-N5.gooo0oo0oo0ooqooo0coooqooove8FIRM G5OTHERMAL CAPACITY PRODUCTION (MW)(MWh/yr)ooooo18,675 19,842 21,012 22,183 23,357 24,533 24-646 24,762 24,880 45-00025-122 25-247 25-375 25,505 25-638 25,773 25-773 254773 25,773 25,773 25,773 25-773 25-773 25,773 25-773 25,773 25-773 25,773 25.773 25,773 25,773 25-773 25-773 25,773 25,773 25,773 DIESEL PRODUCTION (MWh/yr) 13,663 15,152 16,652 18,162 19,455 2,075 2,205 2.335 2,465 2.595 2-726 2.738 2.751 2.764 2.778 2,791 2,805 2,819 2,834 2,849 2,864 2,864 2-864 2.864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2.864 2.864 2,864 2,864 2,864 DIESEL CAPACITY CAPACITY ADDITION/ ADDITION REPLACEMENT REPLACEMENT SCHEDULE SCHEDULE SCHEDULE (Mw)(MW)(Mw) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.60 0.00 5.60 2.50 0.00 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 9.00 0.00 0.00 9.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.30 0.30 0.00 0.60 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.60 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.92 0.92 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.60 5-60 0.00 2.50 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.30 0.30 0.00 0.60 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.60 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.92 0.92 0.00 0.00 0.00 UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR ENERGY PRODUCTION LOW GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE B(4)--GROTHERMAL BINARY SYSTEM (FOUR UNITS)DIESEL CAPACITY CAPACITY ADDITION/ ENERGY COINCIDENT GEOTHERMAL DIESEL FIRM GEOTHERMAL DIESEL ADDITION REPLACEMENT REPLACEMENT USE PEAK CAPACITY CAPACITY CAPACITY PRODUCTION PRODUCTION SCHEDULE SCHEDULE SCHEDULE (Mtn /yr )(Mw)(Mv)(mw)(Mw)(MWh/yr )(mwih/yr)(mw)(Mw)(MW) 13,663 5.20 0.0 3.9 2.5 i)13,663 0.00 0.00 0.00 15,152 3.77 0.0 3.9 2.5 Qo 15,152 0.00 0.00 0.00 16,652 6.34 0.0 9.5 6.7 (4)16,652 5.60 0.00 5.60 18.162 6.91 0.0 12.0 9.2 0 18-162 2.50 0.00 2.50 19,455 7.40 0.0 12.0 9.2 0 19,455 |0.00 0.00 0.00 20,750 "7.90 13.4 22.0 22.6 18.675 2.075 0.00 0.00 0.00 22-047 8.39 13.4 12.0 22.6 19,842 2,205 0.00 0.00 0.00 23.346 8.88 13.4 12.0 22.6 21,012 2.335 0.00 0.00 0.00 24,642 9.38 13.4 212.0 22.6 22-183 2,465 0.00 0.00 0.00 25,952 9.88 13.4 12.0 22.6 23.357 2,595 0.00 0.00 0.00 27,259 10.37 13.4 12.0 22.6 24,533 2-726 0.00 0.00 "0.00 27,385 10.42 13.4 12.0 22.6 24,646 2,738 0.00 0.30 0.30 27,513 10.47 13.4 12.¢22.6 24,762 2.751 0.00 0.60 0.60 27.644 10.52 13.4 12.0 22.6 24,880 2.764 0.00 0.00 0.00 27,778 10.57 13.4 12.0 22.6 25,000,2.778 0.00 0.00 0.00 27.914 10.62 13.4 12.0 22.6 25,122 2-791 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,033 10.67 13.4 12.0 22.6 25,247 2,805 0.00 0.60 0.60 28,394 10.73 13.4 12.0 22.6 25-375 2-819 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,339 10.78 13.4 12.0 22.6 25,505 2.834 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,486 10.84 13.4 12.0 22.6 25,638 2,849 0.00 0.92 0.92 28,63?10.90 13.4 12.0 22.6 25.773 2-864 0.00 0.00 0.00 28.637 10.90 13.4 12.0 22.6 25.773 2.864 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,637 10.90 13.4 12.0 22.6 25,773 2,864 0.00 5.60 5.60 28.637 10.90 13.4 12.0 22-6 25.773 2,864 0.00 2.50 2.50 28,637 10.90 13.4 12.0 22.6 25.773 2-864 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,637 10.90 13.4 12.0 22.6 '25,773 2.864 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,637 10.90 13.4 12.0 22.6 25-6773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,63?10.90 13.4 12.0 22.6 25,773 2.864 0.00 0.00 0.00 23,637 10.90 13.4 12.0 22.6 25,773 2.864 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,637 10.90 13.4 12.0 22.6 25-773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,637 10.90 13.4 12.0 22.6 25-773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 28.637 10.90 13.4 12.0 22-6 25.773 2,864 0.00 0.30 0.30 28,637 10.90 13.4 12.0 22.6 25-773 2,864 0.00 0.60 0.60 28,637 10.90 13.4 12.90 22.6 25,773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,637 10.90 13.4 12.0 22.6 254773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 78,697 10.90 13.4 12.0 22.6 25.773 2,864 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,637?10.90 13.4 12.0 22.6 23,773 2,864 0.00 0.60 0.60 28,637 10.90 13.4 12.0 22.6 25.773 2.864 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,637 10.90 13.4 12.0 22.6 25,773 2-864 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,637 10.90 13.4 12.9 22.6 25.773 2,864 0.00 0.92 0.92 28-637 10.90 13.4 12.0 22.6 25,773 2-864 0.00 0.00 0.00 GZ UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR PNERGY SRODUCTION LOW GROWTH SCENARTO ALTERNATIVE C(1)--HYDPOCLECTRIC SYSTEM :DIESEL CAPACITY CAPACITY ADDITION/ EXLPOY COINCIDENT HYDROPOWER DIESEL FIRM HYDROPOWER DIESEL ADDITION REPLACEMENT REPLACEMENT USE PEAK CAPACITY CAPACITY CAPACITY PRODUCTION PRODUCTION SCHEDULE SCHEDULE --SCHEDULE YEER (Mvin/yr )(Mw)(Mw)(MW)(mv)(MWwh/yr )(MWh/yr )(MW)(Mw)(Mw) 2985 23,662 5.20 0 3.9 2.50 0 13,663 0.00 0.00 0.00 2986 25,252 5.77 Q 3.9 2.50 0 15,152 0.00 0.00 0.00 1987 16,6532 6.34 0 9.5 6.70 0 16,652 5.60 0.00 5.60 1986 18,262 6.91 ie)12.0 9.20 0 18-262 2-50 0.00 2.50 1989 19,455 7.40 0.70 12.0 9.90 3,114 16,341 0.00 0.00 0.00 1990 20.750 7.90 0.70 12.0 9.90 3-114 17,636 0.00 0.00 0.00 199%22,047 8.39 0.70 12.0 9.90 3,114 18,933 0.00 0.00 0.00 1992 23,346 8.88 0.70 12.0 9.90 3,114 20,232 0.00 0.00 0.00 1993 24,648 9.38 0.70 12.0 9.90 3,114 21,534 0.00 0.00 0.00 1994 25,952 9.88 0.70 12.0 9.90 3,114 22,838 0.00 0.00 0.00 1945 27,259 10.37 0.70 14.5 12.40 36114 24,145 2.50 0.00 2.50 1996 27,385 10.42 0.70 14.5 12.40 3-114 24.271 0.00 0.30 0.30 1997 27,513 10.47 0.70 14.5 12.40 3-114 24,399 0.00 0.60 0.60 1998 27.644 10.52 0.70 14.5 12.40 3-114 24-530 0.00 0.00 0.00 1999 27,778 10.57 0.70 14.5 12.40 3,114 24,664 0.00 0.00 0.00 2000 27.924 10.62 0.70 14.5 12.40 36114 24,800 0.00 0.00 0.00 2905 28,053 10.67 0.70 14.5 12.40 3-114 24,939 0.00 0.60 0.60 200?28,194 10.73 0.70 14.5 12.40 3.114 25.080 0.00 0.00 0.00 2063 23,339 10.78 0.70 14.5 12.40 3-114 25,225 0.00 0.00 0.00 2004 29,486 10.84 0.70 14.5 12.40 34114 25,372 9.00 0.92 0.92 2003 23,637 10.90 0.70 14.5 12.40 3-114 25,523 0.00 0.00 0.00 2006 28.637 20.90 0.70 14.5 12.40 3,114 25-523 '0.00 0.00 0.00 2297 23,63?10.90 0.70 14.5 12.40 3.114 25,523 *9.00 5.60 5.60 2008 28.637 10.90 0.70 14.5 12.40 34214 25,523 0.00 2-50 2.50 2209 28.63?10.90 0.70 14.3 12.40 3.114 25.523 0.00 0.00 0.00 2940 28,637 |30.90 0.70 14.5 12.40 3,114 25.523 0.00 0.00 0.00 2022 28,637 10.90 0.70 14.5 12.40 3-114 25,523 0.00 0.00 0.00 2012 28.637 30.90 0.70 14.5 12.40 3.114 25,523 0.00 0.00 0.00 2923 28,637 10.90 0.70 14.5 12.40 3-114 25,523 0.00 0.00 0.00 2014 28,637 10.90 0.70 14.5 12.40 3.114 25,523 0.00 0.00 0.00 2015 28,637 10.90 0.70 14.5 12.40 3-114 25.523 0.00 2.50 2.50 2016 28,637 10.90 Q.70 14.5 12.40 3-114 25.523 0.00 0.30 0.30 2017 28,637 10.90 0.70 .14.5 12.40 3,114 25-523 0.00 0.60 0.60 2018 28.637 10.90 0.70 14.5 12.40 3.114 25,523 0.00 0.00 0.00 2019 28,637 10.90 0.70 14.5 12.40 3,114 25-523 0.00 0.00 0.00 2020 28,637 10.90 0.70 14.5 12.40 3.114 25,523 0.00 0.00 0.00 292%28,637 10.90 0.70 14.5 12.40 3,114 25,523 0.00 0.60 0.60 2022 78,637 10.90 0.70 14.5 12.40 3-114 25,523 0.00 0.00 0.00 2023 28,63?10.90 0.70 14.5 12.40 3114 254523 0.00 0.00 0.00 2924 28,637 10.90 0.70 14.5 12.40 3.114 25-523 0.00 0.92 0.92 2025 28,63?10.90 0.70 14.5 12.40 34114 25,523 0.00 0.00 0.00 OL UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR ENERGY FRODUCTION LOW GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE C(2)--!YDPOELECTRIC SYSTEM DIESEL CAPACITY CAPACITY ADDITION/ ENERGY COINCIDENT HYDROPOWER DIESEL FIRM HYDROPOWER DIESEL ADDITION REPLACEMENT REPLACEMENT USE PEAK CAPACITY CAPACITY CAPACITY PRODUCTION PRODUCTION SCHEDULE SCHEDULE SCHEDULE YIAR (MWh/yr )(Mw)(Mw)(mw)(mw)(MwWh/yr )(Mwh/yr)(MW)(Mw)(mw) 1985 13,663 5.20 0 3.9 2.50 0 13,663 0.00 0.00 0.00 1986 15,252 5.7?t?)3.9 2.50 G.15,152 0.00 0.00 0.00 1937 16,652 6.34 0 9.5 6.70 (0)16,652 5.60 0.00 5.60 1988 18,162 6.91 0 12.0 9.20 (0)18,162 2.50 0.00 2.50 1989 19,455 7.40 0.26 12.0 9.46 2,174 17,281 0.00 0.00 0.00 1990 20,750 7.90 0.26 12.0 9.46 2,174 16,576 0.00 0.00 0.00 1991 22,047 8.39 0.26 12.0 9.46 2,174 19,873 0.00 0.00 0.00 199?23,346 8.88 0.26 12.0 9.46 2.174 21,172 0.00 0.00 0.00 1999 24,648 9.38 0.26 12.0 9.46 2.174 22,474 0.00 0.00 0.00 994 25,952 9.88 0.26 14.5 11.96 2.174 23,778 2.50 0.00 2.50 2995 27,259 10.37 0.26 14.5 11.96 2,174 25,085 0.00 0.00 0.00 1996 27,385 10.42 0.276 14.5 11.96 2,174 25,211 0.00 0.30 0.30 1997 27,513 10.47 0.26 14.5 11.96 2174 25,339 0.00 0.60 0.60 1998 27,644 10.52 0.26 14.5 11.96 2,174 25,470 0.00 0.00 0.00 1999 27,778 10.57 0.26 14.5 11.96 2,174 25,604 0.00 0.00 0.00 BOco 27,914 10.62 0.26 14.5 11.96 2/174 25,740 0.00 0.00 0.00 2902 28,033 10.67 0.26 14.5 11.96 2,174 25,879 0.00 0.60 0.60 2002 28,194 10.73 0.26 14.5 11.96 2.174 26,020 0.00 0.00 0.00 29623 28,339 10.78 0.26 14.5 11.96 27174 26,165 0.00 0.00 0.00 29C4 28,486 10.84 0.26 14.5 11.96 2,174 26-312 0.00 0.92 0.92 2005 28,637 10.90 0.26 14.5 11.96 2,174 26,463 0.00 0.00 0.00 2005 28,637 10.90 0.26 14.5 11.96 2,174 26,463 0.00 0.00 0.00 2907 28,637 10.90 0.26 14.5 11.96 2.174 26,463 0.00 5.60 5.60 2908 78.637 10.90 0.26 14.5 11.96 2.174 26,463 0.00 2.50 2.50 2009 283,637 10.90 0.26 14.5 11.96 2.174 26,463 0.00 0.00 0.00 2010 28,637 10.90 0.26 14.5 11.96 2,174 26,463 0.00 0.00 0.00 2012 28.637 10.90 0.26 14.5 11.96 2.174 26,463 0.00 0.00 0.00 2012 28,637 10.90 0.26 14.5 11.96 2.174 26,463 0.00 0.00 0.00 2913 28,637 10.90 0.26 14.5 11.96 2.174 26,463 0.00 0.00 0.00 2014 28,637 10.90 0.26 14.5 11.96 2,174 26,463 0.00 2.50 2.50 2015 28,637 10.90 0.26 14.5 11.96 2.174 26,463 0.00 0.00 0.00 2916 28.637 10.90 0.26 14.5 11.96 2.174 26.463 0.00 0.30 0.30 20:7 23,637 10.90 0.26 14.5 11.96 2,174 26,463 0.00 0.60 0.60 2018 28,637 10.90 0.26 14.5 11.96 2.174 26,463 0.00 0.00 0.00 2019 28,637 10.90 0.26 14.5 11.96 2.174 26-463 0.00 0.00 0.00 2020 28,637 10.90 0.26 14.5 11.96 2.174 26,463 0.00 0.00 0.00 292 28,63?10.90 0.26 14.5 11.96 2-174 26,463 0.00 0.60 0.60 2022 28,637 10.90 0.26 14.5 11.96 2-174 26,463 0.00 0.00 0.00 2023 28,637 10.90 0.26 14.5 11.96 2.174 26,463 0.00 0.00 0.00 2074 28,63)10.90 0.26 14.3 11.96 2,174 26,463 0.00 0.92 0.92 2025 23,637 10.90 0.26 14.5 11.96 2.174 26,463 0.00 0.00 0.00 LL UNALASKA/DUTCH HARPOR ENERGY PRODUCTION LOW!GROWTHE SCENARTO ALTERNATIVE C(3)--HYDROELECTRIC SYSTEM DIESEL *CAPACITY CAPACITY ADDITION/ ENERGY COINCIDENT HYNDROPOVER KHIESEL FIRM HYDROPOWER DIESEL ADDITION REPLACEMENT REPLACEMENT USE PEAK CAPACITY CAPACITY CAPACITY PRODUCTION PRODUCTION SCHEDULE SCHEDULE SCHEDULE YERR (Mh /yr)(Mw)(Mw)(mw)(Mw)(Muh/yr)(MWh/yr)(mw)(Mw)(tw) 1985 13,663 5.20 0 3.9 2.50 0 13,663 0.00 0.00 0.00 L986 15,152 S.77 (0)3.9 2.50 0 15,152 0.00 0.00 0.00 1987 16,652 °6.34 (¢)9.5 6.70 (0)16,652 5.60 0.00 5.60 1988 18,162 6.91 (0)12.0 9.20 it)18,162 2.50 -0.00 2.50 1989 19,455 7.40 0.96 12.0 10.16 5,288 14,167 0.00 0.00 0.00 1990 29.750 7-90 0.96 12.0 10.16 5,288 15,462 0.00 0.00 0.00 1991 22,047 8.39 0.96 12.0 10.16 5,288 16,759 0.00 0.00 0.00 2992 23,346 8.88 0.96 12.0 10.16 5,288 18,058 0.00 0.00 "0.00 1993 24,648 9.38 0.96 12.0 10.16 5,288 19,360 0.00 0.00 0.00 1994 25,952 9.88 0.96 12.0 10.16 5,288 20,664 0.00 0.00 0.00 1995 274259 10.37 0.96 14.5 12.66 5,288 21,971 2.50 0.00 2.50 1996 27,385 10.42 0.96 14.5 12.66 5,288 22,097 0.00 0.30 0.30 1997 27-513 10.47 0.96 14.5 12.66 5,288 22,225 6.00 0.60 0.60 31998 27,644 10.52 0.96 14.5 12.66 5,288 22,356 0.00 0.00 0.00 1999 27,778 10.57 0.96 14.5 12.66 5,288 22,490 0.00 0.00 0.00 2000 27,914 10.62 0.96 14.5 12.66 5!288 22,626 0.00 0.00 0.00 2001 28,053 10.67 0.96 14.5 12.66 5,288 22,765 0.00 0.60 0.60 2092 28,194 10.73 0.96 14.5 12.66 5,288 22,906 0.00 0.00 0.00 2003 28,339 10.78 0.96 14.5 12.66 5,288 23,051 0.00 0.00 0.00 20904 28,486 10.84 0.96 14.5 12.66 5,288 23,198 0.00 0.92 0.92 2004 28,637 10.90 0.96 14.5 12.66 5,288 23,349 0.00 0.00 0.00 7006 28,637 10.90 0.96 414.5 12.66 5,288 23,349 0.00 0.00 0.00 200°28,637 10.90 0.96 14.5 12.66 5,288 23-349 0.00 5.60 5.60 2008 28,637 10.90 0.96 14.5 12.66 5,288 23,349 0.00 2.50 2.50 2009 28,637 10.90 0.96 14.5 12.66 5,288 23,349 0.00 0.00 0.00 POLO 28,637 10.90 0.96 14.5 12.66 5,288 23,349 0.00 0.00 0.00 201)28,637 10.90 0.96 14.5 12.66 5,288 23,349 0.00 0.00 0.00 2012 28,637 10.90 0.96 14.5 12.66 5,288 23,349 0.00 0.00 0.00 2023 28,637 10.90 0.96 14.5 12.66 5,288 23,349 0.00 0.00 0.00 2014 28.637 10.90 0.96 14.5 12.66 5,288 23,349 9.00 0.00 0.00 2¢15 28,637 10.90 0.96 14.5 12.66 5,288 23,349 0.00 2.50 2.50 220!28,637 10.90 0.96 14.5 12.66 5,288 23,349 0.00 0.30 0.30 201”28,637 10.90 0.96 ,14.5 12.66 5,288 23,349 0.00 0.60 0.60 2018 28,637 10.90 0.96 14.5,12.66 5,288 23,349 0.00 0.00 0.00 2029 28,637 10.90 0.96 14.5 12.66 5,288 23,349 0.00 0.00 0.00 202 28.637 10.90 0.96 14.5 12.66 5,288 23-349 0.00 0.00 0.00 202)28,637 10.90 0.96 14.5 12.66 5,288 23,349 0.00 0.60 0.60 2022 28,637 310.90 0.96 14.5 12.66 5,288 23,349 0.00 0.00.0.00 2923 28,637 10.90 0.96 14.5 12.66 5,288 23,349 0.00 0.00 0.00 2024 28,637 10.90.0.96 14.5 12.66 5,288 23,349 0.00 0.92 0.92 2025 28,637 10.90 0.96 14.5 12.66 5,288 23,349 0.00 0.00 0.00 8L UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR ENERGY PRODUCTION MODERATE GROWTH SCENARIO BASE CASE CAPACITY CAPACITY ADDITION/ ENERGY COINCIDENT DIESE!FIRM DIESEL ADDITION REPLACEMENT REPLACEMENT USE PEAK CAPACITY CAPACITY PRODUCTION SCHEDULE SCHEDULE SCHEDULE YEAR (MwWh/yr )(MW)(MW)(mw)(MWh/yr)(Mw)(mw)(Mw) 1985 13,663 5.20 3.9 2.5 13,663 0.00 0.00 0.00 1986 16,435 6.25 3.9 2.5 16.435 0.00 0.00 0.00 1987 19,233 7.32 9.5 6.7 19,233 5.60 0.00 5.60 1986 22,058 8.39 12.0 9.2 22.058 2.50 0.00 2.50 1989 24,664 9.38 14.5 11.7 24,664 2.50 0.00 2.50 1990 27,279 10.38 14.5 11.7 27-279 0.00 0.00 0.00 1992 28,721 10.93 14.5 11.7 28,721 0.00 0.00 0.00 1992 30,174 11.48 14.5 11.7 30,174 0.00 0.00 0.00 199:31,638 12.04 17.0 14.2 31,638 2.50 0.00 2.50 1994 33,113 12.60 17.0 14.2 33,113 0.00 0.00 0.00 1995 34,600 13.17 17.0 14.2 34,600 0.00 0.00 0.00 1996 34,917 13.29 17.0 14.2 34,917 0.00 0.30 0.30 1997 BF ,246 13.41 17.0 14.2 35,246 0.00 0.60 0.60 1998 35,589 13.54 17.0 14.2 35,589 0.00 0.00 0.00 1999 35,946 13.68 17.0 14.2 35,946 0,00 0.00 0.00 2009 36,317 13.82 17.0 14.2 36,317 0.00 0.00 0.00 200:36,704 13.97 17.0 14.2 36,704 0.00 0.60 0.60 2002 37.106 14.12 17.0 14.2 37,106 0.00 0.00 0.00 POGT 37.525 14.28 19.5 16.7 37,525 2.50 0.00 2.50 2004 37,961 14.44 19.5 16.7 37,961 0.00 0.92 0.92 2005 38,415 14.62 19.5 16.7 38,415 :0.00 0.00 0.00 2006 38.415 14.62 19.5 16.7 38.415 0.00 0.00 0.00 2007 38,415 14.62 19.5 16.7 38,415 0.00 5.60 5.60 29¢8 28,415 14.62 19.5 16.7 38,415 0.00 2.50 2.50 2ec9 38,415 14.62 19.5 16.7 38,415 0.00 2.50 .2.50 2010 38,415 14.62 19.5 16.7 38-415 0.00 0.00 0.00 2022 38,415 14.62 19.5 16.7 38,415 0.00 0.00 0.00 2012 38.415 14.62 19.5 16.7 38,415 0.00 0.00 0.00 2013 38,415 14.62 19.5 16.7 38,415 0.00 2.50 2.50 2014 38,415 14.62 19.5 16.7 38,415 0.00 0.00 0.00 2o1s 38,415 14.62 19.5 16.7 38,415 '0.00 0.00 0.00 2016 38,415 14.62 19.5 16.7 38,415 0.00 0.30 0.30 2017 38,415 14.62 19.5 16.7 38,415 0.00 0.60 0.60 7018 38,415 14.62 19.5 16.7 38,415 0.00 0.00 0.00 2019 38,415 14.62 19.5 16.7 38-415 0.00 0.00 0.00 2020 38,415 14.62 19.5 16.7 38,415 0.00 0.00 0.00 202!38,415 14.62 19.5 16.7 38,415 0.00 0.60 0.60 2022 38,415 14.62 19.5 16.7 38,415 0.00 0.00 0.00 2073 38,415 14.62 19.5 16.7 38,415 0.00 2.50 2.50 2924 38.415 14.62 19.5 16.7 38,415 0.00 0.92 0.92 2923 38,415 14.62 19.5 16.7 38,415 0.00 0.00 0.00 6L UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR CNERGY PRODUCTION MODERATE GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE A(1)----GDOTRERMAL TOTAL FLOW SYSTEM (ONE UNIT)DIESEL CAPACITY CAPACITY ADDITION/ ENERGY COINCIDENT GHOTHERMAL DIESEL FIRM GEOTHERMAL DIESEL ADDITION REPLACEMENT REPLACEMENT USE PEAK CAPACITY CAPACITY CAPACITY PRODUCTION PRODUCTION SCHEDULE SCHEDULE SCHEDULEYEAR(MUh/yr }(mw)(MW)(mw)(MW)(Mwh/yr )(MWh/yr)(MW)(mw)(MW) 1985 13,663 §.20 0 3.9 2.5 0 13,663 0.00 .0.00 0.00 1926 16.435 6.25 0 3.9 2-5 0 16,435 0.00 0.00 0.00 2987 19,233 7.32 ie}9.5 6.7 0 19,233 5.60 0.00 5.60 2988 22,058 8.39 (?)12.0 9.2 t?]22,058 2.50.0.00 2-50 1989 24,664 9.38 0 14.5 11.7 0 .24,664 2.50 0.00 2.50 1999 27.279 10.38 2.1 14.5 13.8 16,556 10,722 0.00 0.00 0.00 199}28,721 10.93 2.1 14.5 13.8 16,556 12,165 0.00 0.00 0.00 1992 30.174 11.48 2.1 14.5 13.8 16,556 13,617 0.00 0.00 0.00 1993 31,638 12.04 2.1 14.5 13.8 16,556 15,081 0.00 0.00 0.00 1994 33,113 12.60 2.1 14.5 13.8 16,556 16,557 0.00 0.00 0.00 1995 34,600 13.17 2.1 14.5 13.8 16,556 18,044 0.00 0.00 0.00 1996 34,917 13.29 2-1 14.5 13.8 16,556 18,360 0.00 0.30 0.30 1997 35,246 13.41 2.1 14.5 13.8 16,556 18,690 0.00 0.60 0.60 1998 35,589 13.54 2.1 14.5 13.8 16,556 19,033 0.00 0.00 0.00 1999 35,946 13.68 2.1 14.5 13.8 peor 19,390 0.00 0.00 0.00 2000 36,317 13.82 2.1 17.0 16.3 6,556 19,761 2.50 0.00 2.50 2001 36,704 13.97 2-1 17.0 16.3 16,556 20,148 0.00 0.60 0.60 2002 37,106 14.12 2.1 17.0 16.3 16,556 20-550 0.00 0.00 0.00 2003 37,525 14.28 2.1 17.0 16.3 16,556 20.969 0.00 0.00 0.00 2004 37,96}14.44 2.1 17.0 16.3 16,556 21,405 0.00 0.92 0.92 2005 38,415 14.62 2.1 17.0 16.3 16,556 21,859 0.00 0.00 0.00 2006 38,415 14.62 2.1 17.0 16.3 16,556 21,859 0.00 0.00 0.00 200?38,415 14.62 2-1 17.0 16.3 16,556 21,859 0.00 5.60 5.60 7008 38,415 14.62 2.1 17.0 16.3 16,556 21,859 0.00 2.50 2.50 2009 38,415 14.62 2.1 17.0 16.3 16,556 21,859 ,0.00 2.50 2.50 2010 38,415 14.62 2.1 17.0 16.3 16,556 21,859 0.00 0.00 0.00 293%38,415 14.62 2.1 17.0 16.3 16,556 21,859 0.00 0.00 0.00 2012 38,415 14.62 2.1 17.0 16.3 16,556 21.859 0.00 0.00 0.00 2913 38,415 14.62 2.1 17.0 16.3 16,556 21,859 0.00 0.00 0.00 2014 3B.415 14.62 2.1 17.0 16.3 16,556 21,859 0.00 0.00 0.00 2015 38,415 14.62 2-1 17.0 16.3 16,556 21,859 0.00 6.00 0.00 2016 38,415 14.62 2.1 17.0 16.3 16,556 21,859 0.00 0.30 0.30 2917 38,415 14.62 2.1 17.0.16.3 16,556 21,859 0.00 0.60 0.60 2018 38,435 14.62 2.1 17.0 16.3 16,556 21,859 0.00 0.00 0.00 2019 38,415 14.62 2-1 17.0 16.3 16,556 21,859 0.00 0.00 0.00 "020 38,415 14.62 2.1 _17.9 16.3 16,556 21,859 0.00 2.50 2.50 29021 38,415 14.62 2.1 17.0 16.3 16,556 21,859 0.00 0.60 0.60 2922 38,415 14.62 2.1 17.0 16.3 16,556 21,859 0.00 0.00 0.00 2023 38,415 14.62 2-1 17.0 16.3 16,556 21,859 0.00 0.00 0.00 2024 38,415 14.62 2.1 17.0 16.3 16,556 21,859 0.00 0.92 0.92 2023 38,415 14.62 2.1 17.0 16.3 16,556 21,859 0.00 0.00 0.00 03 UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR ENERGY PRODUCTION MODERATE GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE A(2)--GEOTHERMAL TOTAL FLOW SYSTEM (TWO UNITS)DIESEL CAPACITY CAPACITY ADDITION/ ENERGY COINCIDENT GEOTHERMAL DIESEL FIRM GBOTHERMAL DIESEL ADDITION REPLACEMENT REPLACEMENT USE PEAK CAPACITY CAPACITY CAPACITY PRODUCTION PRODUCTION SCHEDULE SCHEDULE SCHEDULE YEAR (Muh/yr )(Mw)(MW)(Mw)(Mw)(MWh /yr )(MWh/yr )(MW)(MW)(mw) 1985 13,663 5.20 *)3.9 2.5 0 13,663 0.00 0.00 0.00 1986 16,435 6.25 (°)3.9 2.5 ts)16,435 0.00 0.00 0.00 1987 19,233 7.32 (0)9.5 6.7 fe)19,233 5.60 0.00 5.60 1988 72,058 8.39 fe)12.0 9.2 ()22,058 2.50 0.00 2.50 1989 24,664 9.38 is)14.5 11.7 te)24,664 2.50 0.00 2.50 1990 27,279 10.38 4.2 14.5 15.9 24,551 2,728 0.00 0.00 0.00 1992 28,721 10.93 4.2 14.5 15.9 25,849 2,872 0.00 0.00 0.00 1992 20,174 11.48 4.2 14.5 15.9 27,157 3,017 0.00 0.00 0.00 1993 31,638 12.04 4.2 14.5 15.9 28,474 3,164 0.00 0.00 0.00 1994 33,113 12.60 4.2?14.5 15.9 33,113 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 3995 34,600 13.17 4.2 14.5 15.9 33,113 1,488 0.00 0.00 0.00 1996 34,917 13.29 4.2 14.5 15.9 33,113 1,804 0.00 0.30 0.30 199?35,246 13.41 4.2 14.5 18.9 33,113 2.133 0.00 0.60 0.60 2998 35,589 13.54 4.2 14.5 15.9 33,113 2,476 0.00 0.00 0.00 1999 35,946 13.68 4.2 14.5 15.9 3pe1tS 2,833 0.00 0.00 0.00 2000 36,317 13.82 4.2 14.5 15.9 33,113 3,205 0.00 0.00 0.00 2002.36,704 13.97 4.2 14.5 15.9 33,113 3,591 0.00 0.60 0.60 2002 37,106 14.12 4.2 14.5 15.9 33-113 3.994 0.00 0.00 0.00 2093 37,525 14.28 4.2 14.5 15.9 33,113 4,412 0.00 0.00 0.00 2004 37,961 14.44 4.2 14.5 15.9 33,113 4,848 0.00 0.92 0.92 2005 38,415 14.62 4.2 14.5 15.9 33,113 5,302 0.00 0.00 0.00 2006 38,415 14.62 4.2 14.5 15.9 33,113 5,302 0.00 0.00 0.00 2007 38,415 14.62 4.2 14.5 15.9 33,113 5,302 0.00 5.60 5.60 2008 38,415 14.62 4.2 14.5 15.9 33,113 5,302 0.00 2.50 2.50 2009 38,415 14.62 4.2 14.5 15.9 33-113 5,302 0.00 2-50 2.50 2010 38,415 14.62 4.2 14.5 15.9 33,113 5,302 0.00 0.00 0.00 2011 38,415 14.62 4.2 14.5 15.9 33,113 5,302 0.00 0.00 0.00 2012 38,415 14.62 4.2 14.5 18.9 33,113 5,302 0.00 0.00 0.00 2013 38,415 14.62 4.2 14.5 15.9 33,113 5,302 0.00 0.00 0.00 2014 38,415 14.62 4.2 14.5 15.9 33,113 5,302 0.00 0.00 0.00 2015 38,415 14.62 4.2 14.5 15.9 33,113 5,302 0.00 0.00 0.00 7916 38,415 14.62 4.2 14.5 15.9 33,113 5,302 0.00 0.30 0.30 2017 38,415 14.62 4.2 14.5 15.9 33,113 5,302 0.00 0.60 0.60 DOLE 38,415 14.62 4.2 14.5 15.9 33,113 5,302 0.00 0.00 0.00 2019 38,415 14.62 4.2 14.5 15.9 33,113 5.302 0.00 0.00 0.00 2020 38,415 14.62 4.2 14.5 15.9 33,113 5,302 0.00 0.00 0.00 2021 38,415 14.62 4.2 14.5 15.9 33,1213 5,302 0.00 0.60 0.60 2072 38,415 14.62 4.2 14.5 15.9 33,113 5,302 0.00 0.00 0.00 2023 38,415 14.62 4.2 14.5 15.9 33,113 5,302 0.00 0.00 0.00 7024 38,415 14.62 4.2 14.5 15.9 33,313 5,302 0.00 0.92 0.92 2025 38,415 14.62 4.2 14.5 15.9 33,113 5,302 0.00 0.00 0.00 T8 UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR ENERGY PRODUCTION MODERATE GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE A(3)--GEOTHERMAL TOTAI.FLOW SYSTEM (THREE UNITS)DIESEL CAPACITY CAPACITY ADDITION/ ENERGY COINCIDENT GEOTHERMAL DIESEL FIRM GBROTHERMAL DIESEL ADDITION REPLACEMENT REPLACEMENT USE PEAK CAPACITY CAPACITY CAPACITY PRODUCTION PRODUCTION SCHEDULE SCHEDULE SCHEDULE YEAR (MWh/yr )(Mw)(MW)(Mw)(mw)(MWh/yr )(Muh /yr )(MW)(MW)(Mw) 1985 13,663 5.20 0 3.9 2.5 0 13,663 0.00 0.00 0.00 1986 16,435 6.25 ()3.9 2.5 0 16-435 0.00 0.00 0.00 1987 19,233 7.32 0 9.5 6.7 (*)19,233 5.60 0.00 5.60 1988 22,058 8.39 0 12.0 9.2 (*)22,058 2.50 0.00 2.50 1989 24,664 9.38 (*)14.5 11.7 (*)24,664 2.50 0.00 2.50 1990 27,279 10.38 6.3 14.5 18.0 24,551 2.728 0.00 .0.00 0.00 1991 28,721 10.93 6.3 14.5 18.0 25,849 2,872 0.00 0.00 0.00 1992 30,374 11.48 6.3 14.5 18.0 -27,157 3,017 0.00 0.00 0.00 1993 31,638 12.04 6.3 14.5 18.0 28,474 3,164 0.00 0.00 0.00 1994 33,113 12.60 6.3 14.5 18.0 29,802 3,311 0.00 0.00 0.00 1995 34,690 13.17 °6.3 14.5 18.0 31,140 3,460 0.00 0.00 0.00 1996 34,917 13.29 6.3 14.5 18.0 31,425 3,492 0.00 0.30 0.30 199?35,246 13.41 6.3 14.5 18.0 31-722 3,525 0.00 0.60 0.60 1998 35,589 13.54 6.3 14.5 18.0 32,030 3,559 0.00 -0.00 0.00 1999 33,946 13.68 6.3 14.5 18.0 32,35 3,595 0.00 0.00 0.00 2000 36,317 13.82 6.3 14.5 18.0 32,68 3,632 0.00 0.00 0.00 2001 36-704 13.97 6.3 14.5 18.0 33,034 3,670 0.00.0.60 0.60 2002 37.106 14.12 6.3 14.5 18.0 33,396 3,711 0.00 0.00 0.00 2003 37,525 14.28 6.3 14.5 18.0 33,773 3,753 0.00 0.00 0.00 2004 37,961 14.44 6.3 14.5 18.0 34,165 3.796 0.00 0.92 0.92 2005 38,415 14.62 6.3 14.5 18.0 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 0.00 2006 38,415 14.62 6.3 14.5 18.0 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 0.00 2007 38,415 14.62 6.3 14.5 18.0 34,573 3,841 0.00 5.60 5.60 7008 38.435 14.62 6.3 14.5 18.0 34,573 3,841 0.00 2.50 2.50 2009 38,415 14.62 6.3 14.5 18.0 34,573 3,841 0.00 2.50 2.50 2010 38,415 14.62 6.3 14.5 18.0 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 0.00 2011 38,415 14.62 6.3 14.5 18.0 34,573 3,841 -0.00 0.00 0.00 2012 38,415 14.62 6.3 14.5 18.0 34,573 3,641 0.00 0.00 0.00 2013 38,415 14.62 6.3 14.5 18.0 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 0.00 2014 38,415 14.62 6.3 14.5 18.0 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 0.00 2015 38,415 14.62 6.3 14.5 18.0 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 0.00 2016 38.415 14.62 6.3 14.5 18.0 .34,573 3,841 0.00 0.30 0.30 2017 38,415 14.62 6.3 14.5 18.0 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.60 0.60 2018 38,415 14.62 6.3 14.5 18.0 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 0.00 2019 38,415 14.62 6.3 14.5 18.0 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 0.00 2020 38,415 14.62 6.3 14.5 18.0 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 0.00 2021 38,415 14.62 6.3 14.5 18.0 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.60 0.60 2022 38,415 14.62 6.3 14.5 18.0 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 0.00 2023 38,415 14.62 6.3 14.5 18.0 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 0.00 2024 38.425 14.62 6.3 14.5 18.0 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.92 0.92 2025 38,415 14.62 6.3 14.5 18.0 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 0.00 28 UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR ENERGY PRODUCTION MODERATE GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE A(4)--GEOTHERMAL TOTAL FLOW SYSTEM (FOUR UNITS).DIESEL CAPACITY CAPACITY ADDITION/ ENEPGY COINCIDENT GEOTHERMAL DIESEL FIRM GEOTHERMAL DIESEL ADDITION REPLACEMENT REPLACEMENT USE.PEAK CAPACITY CAPACITY CAPACITY PRODUCTION PRODUCTION SCHEDULE SCHEDULE SCHEDULE YELR (uih/yr )(MW)(MW)(Mw)(Mw)(MWh/yr )(Mwh/yr )(Mw)(MW)(mw) 2995 13,663 5.20 0 3.9 2.5 te)13,663 0.00 0.00 0.00 LaAs 16,435 6.25 9)3.9 2.5 cs)16,435 0.00 0.00 0.00 1987 19,233 7.32 (e)9.5 6.7 ()19,233 5.60 0.00 5.60 1998 22,058 8.39 0)12.0 9.2 fe)22,058 2.50 0.00 2.50 1989 24,664 9.38 0 14.5 11.7 0 24-664 2.50 0.00 2.50 1990 27,279 10.38 8.4 14.5 20.1 24,551 2,728 0.00 0.00 0.00 eq)28,722 10.93 8.4 14.5 20.1 25,849 2.872 0.00 0.00 0.00 1992 30.374 11.48 8.4 14.5 20.1 27,157 3.017 0.00 0.00 0.00 1992 31,67€12.04 8.4 14.5 20.1 28,474 3.164 0.00 0.00 0.00 1994 hye es 12.60 8.4 14.5 20.1 29,802 3,311 0.00 0.00 0.00 1995 34,669 13.17 8.4 14.5 20.2 31,140 3,460 0.00 0.00 0.00 L998 14,917 13.29 8.4 24.5 20.1 32,425 3,492 0.00 0.30 0.30 1.997 35,2746 13.4}8.4 14.5 20.1 31,722 3,525 0.00 0.60 0.60 1agg 45,489 13.54 8.4 14.5 20.1 32,030 3.559 0.00 0.00 0.00 1996 35.946 13.68 8.4 14.5 20.1 32,351 3,595 0.00 0,00 0.00 2000 36,317 13.82 8.4 14.5 20.1 32,686 3-632 0.00 0.00 0.00 POSL 36,794 13.97 8.4 14.5 20.1 33,034 3670 0.00 0.60 0.60 2902 37,106 14.12 8.4 14.5 20.2 33,396 3.722 0.00 0.00 0.00 2003 37,525 14.28 8.4 14.5 20.1 33,773 3,753 0.00 0.00 0.00 2004 37,961 14.44 8.4 14.5 20.1 34,165 3.796 0.00 0.92 0.92 2005 38,415 14.62 8.4 14.5 20.1 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 0.00 2006 38,415 24.62 8.4 14.5 20.1 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 0.00 2c¢0?38,415 14.62 8.4 14.5 20.1 34,573 3,841 0.00 5.60 5.60 2908 38,415 14.62 8.4 14.5 20.1 34,573 3-841 0.00 2.50 2.50 2009 38,415 14.62 8.4 14.5 20.1 34,573 3,84)0.00 2.50 2.50 2019 38,415 14.62 8.4 14.5 20.1 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 0.00 2022 38,415 14.62 8.4 14.5 20.1 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 0.00 29012 38.415 14.62 8.4 14.5 20.1 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 0.00 2013 38,425 14.62 8.4 14.5 20.1 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 0.00 2914 38,415 14.62 8.4 14.5 20.1 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 0.00 2015 36,415 14.62 8.4 14.5 20.1 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 0.00 79:6 38,413 14.62 8.4 14.5 20.3 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.30 0.30 2017 38,4215 14.62 8.4 14.5 20.1 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.60 0.60 2918 38,415 14.62 8.4 14.5 20.1 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 0.00 2029 38,415 14.62 8.4 14.5 20.1 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 0.00 2929 EATS 14.62 8.4 14.5 20.1 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 0.00 2022 48,435 14.62 8.4 14.45 20.2 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.60 0.60 2022 W4Ls 14.62 8.4 14.35 20.1 34,573 3,84)0.00 0.00 0.00 2223 38,425 14.62 8.4 14.5 20.1 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 0.00 wo84 WAS 14.62 8.4 14.5 20.2 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.92 0.92 2025 38.415 14.62 3.4 14.5 20.1 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 0.00 €8 JNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR ENERGY FRODUCTION MODERATE GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE A(5)--GHOTHERMAL TOTAL FLOW SYSTEM (FIVE UNITS)DIESEL CAPACITY CAPACITY ADDITION/ ENTPGY COINCIDENT GEOTHERMAL OTESEL FIRM GHEOTHERMAL DIESEL §ADDITION REPLACEMENT REPLACEMENT USE PEAK CAPACITY CAPACITY CAPACITY PRODUCTION PRODUCTION SCHEDULE SCHEDULE SCHEDULE YER (MWh/yr)(MW)(mu)(Mv)(Mw)(MWh/yr )(MWh/yr)(Mw)(Mw)(MW) 1985 13,663 5.20 0 3.9 2.5 (*)13,663 0.00 0.00 0.00 1986 16,435 6.25 0 3.9 2.5 ()16,435 0.00 0.00 0.00 198?19,233 7.32 0 9.5 6.7 (e)19,233 5.60 0.00 5.60 1988 22,058 8.39 0 12.0 9.2 ()22,058 2.50 0.00 2.50 1929 24,664 9.38 0 14.5 11.7 (t)24,664 2.50 0.00 2.50 1990 27,279 10.38 10.5 14.5 22.2 24,551 2,728 0.00 0.00 0.00 199}28,721 10.93 10.5 14.5 22.2 25,849 2,872 0.00 0.00 0.00 1992 30,174 11.48 10.5 14.5 22.2 27-157 3,017 0.00 0.00 0.00 1992 31,638 12.04 10.5 14.5 22.2 28,474 3,164 0.00 0.00 0.00 1994 33,113 12.60 10.5 14.5 22.2 29,802 3,311 0.00 0.00 0.00 1995 34,600 13.17 10.5 14.5 22.2 |31,140 3,460 0.00 0.00 0.00 1996 34,917 13.29 10.5 14.5 22.2 31-425 3,492 0.00 0.30 0.30 1997 35.246 13.41 10.5 14.5 22.2 31,722 3,525 0.00 0.60 0.60 1998 35.389 13.54 10.5 14.5 22.2 32,030 3,559 0.00 0.00 0.00 1999 35,946 13.68 10.5 14.5 22.2 32,351 .3,595 0.00 0.00 0.00 2000 36,317 13.82 10.5 14.5 22.2 32,686 3,632 0.00 0.00 0.00 PCQl 36,704 13.97 10.5 14.5 22.2 33,034 3,670 0.00 0.60 0.60 2902 37,106 14.12 10.5 14.5 22.2 33,396 3,711 0.00 0.00 0.00 200?37,325 14.28 10.5 14.5 22.2 33,773 3-733 0.00 0.00 0.00 2004 37,961 14.44 10.5 14.5 22.2 34,165 3,796 0.00 0.92 0.92 2008 38,415 14.62 10.4 14.5 22.2 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 0.00 2906 3B,41s 14.62 10.5 14.5 22.2 34,573 3.641 0.00 0.00 0.00 2007 38,415 14.62 10.5 14.5 22.2 34,573 3,841 0.00 5.60 5.60 296 38,415 14.62 10.5 14.5 22.2 34,573 3,841 0.00 2.50 2.50 2009 33,4615 14.62 10.5 14.5 22.2 34,573 3,841 0.00 2.50 2.50 201K 38,415 14.62 10.5 14.5 22.2 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 0.00 201k 38.415 14.62 10.5 14.5 22.2 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 0.00 7912 28,415 14.62 10.5 14.5 22.2 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 0.00 2013 38,415 14.62 10.5 14.5 22.2 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 0.00 4 38,415 14.62 10.5 14.5 22.2 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 0.00 =39,415 14.62 10.5 14.5 22.2 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 0.00 6 38,415 14.62 10.5 14.5 22.2 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.30 0.30 L?38,415 14.67 10.5 14.5 22.2 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.60 0.60 8 38,415 14.62 10.5 14.5 22.2 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 0.00 9 38,415 14.62 10.5 14.5 22.2 34,573 -3,841 0.00 0.00 0.00 i)38,415 14.62 10.5 14.5 22.2 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 0.00 2 38,415 14.62 10.5 14.5 22.2 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.60 0.60 22 38,415 14.62 10.5 14.8 22.2 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 0.00 23 38.415 14.62 10.5 14.5 22.2 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 0.00 4 38,415 14.62 10.5 14.5 22.2 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.92 0.92 25 38,415 14.62 10.5 14.5 22.2 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 0.00 78 UNALASKA/DUTCH HA22R0OR ENERGY PRODUCTION MOMERATE GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE A(6)--GEOTHERMAL TOT!SL FLOW SYSTEM (SIX UNITS)DIESEL CAPACITY CAPACITY ADDITION/ ENERGY COINCIDENT GOOTHERMAL DTESEL FIRM GHOTHERMAL DIESEL.ADDITION REPLACEMENT REPLACEMENT USE DEAK CBPACTTY CAPACTTY CAPACITY PRODUCTION PRODUCTION SCHEDULE SCHEDULE SCHEDULE YELR tMWn/yr )(Mv)(My)(My)(MW)(MWh/yr )(MWh/yr)(Mw)(MW)(MW) 297A 23,663 5.20 Q 3.9 2.5 {4}13,663 0.00 0.00 0.00 19686 16,435 6.25 0 4.9 2.5 0 16.435 0.00 0.00 0.00 1987 19,233 7.32 c 9.5 6.7 0 19,233 5.60 0.00 5.60 L988 22,058 8.39 ie)12.0 9.2 0 22,058 2.50 0.00 2.50 1s@a 24,664 9.38 is)14.5 11.7 0 24,664 2.50 0.00 2.50 3990 27,299 10.38 12.6 14.5 24.3 24.551 2.728 0.00 0.00 0.00 1997 28,722 10.93 12.6 14.5 24.3 25,849 2,872 0.00 0.00 0.00 2992 30,174 11.48 12.6 14.5 24.3 27,157 3.017 0.00 0.00 0.00 1993 31,638 12.04 12.6 14.5 24.3 28,474 3,164 0.00 0.00 0.00 1994 33,113 12.60 12.6 14.5 24.3 29,802 3.311 0.00 0.00 0.00 1995 34,600 13.17 12.6 14.5 24.3 31,140 3,460 0.00 0.00 0.00 1996 °34.917 13.29 12.6 14.5 24.3 314425 3,492 0.00 0.30 0.30 1997 35,246 13.41 12.6 14.5 24.3 31,722 3.525 0.00 0.60 0.60 1998 35,589 13.54 12.6 14.5 24.3 32.030 3,559 0.00 0.00 0.00 1999 345,946 13.68 12.6 14.5 24.3 32,351 3,595 0.00 0.00 0.00 2999 36,317 13.82 12.6 14.5 24.3 32,686 3,632 0.00 0.00 0.00 2001 36,704 13.97 12.6 14.5 24.3 33,034 3,670 0.00 0.60 0.60 2002 37,106 14.12 12.6 14.5 24.3 33,396 3,711 0.00 0.00 0.00 2003 37,525 14.28 12.6 14.5 24.3 33.773 3,753 0.00 0.00 0.00 7004 37,961 14.44 12.6 14.5 24.3 34,165 3,796 0.00 0.92 0.92 2005 38,415 14.62 12.6 14.5 24.3 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 0.00 2006 38.415 14.62 12.6 14.5 24.3 34.573 3,841 9.00 0.00 0.00 2007 38,415 14.62 12.6 14.5 24.3 34,573 3-841 0.00 5.60 5.60 2008 38,415 14.62 12.6 14.5 24.3 34,573 3,841 0.00 2.50 2.50 2009 38,415 14.62 12.6 14.5 24.3 34,573 3,842 0.00 2.50 2.50 2010 28.415 14.62 12.6 14.5 24.3 34,573 3,842 0.00 0.00 0.00 2012 48.415 14.62 12.6 14.5 24.3 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 0.00 ani2 38.415 14.62 12.6 14.5 24.3 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 0.00 2017 38.415 14.62 12.6 14.5 24.3 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 0.00 2014 28,415 14.62 12.6 14.5 24.3 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 0.00 2025 WB,415 14.62 12.6 14.5 24.3 34,573 3.841 0.00 0.00 0.00 POL6 38-415 14.62 12.6 14.5 24.3 34.573 3,841 0.00 0.30 0.30 2015 38,415 14.62 12.6 14.5 24.3 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.60 0.60 uo 38,415 14.62 12.6 14.5 24.3 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 0.00 2019 38,435 14.62 12.6 14.5 24.3 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 0.00 2920 IB,ALS 14.62 12.6 14.5 24.3 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 0.00 272 38,415 14.62 12.6 14.5 24.3 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.60 0.60 2922 48.415 14.62 12.6 14.5 24.3 34,573 3,84)0.00 0.00 0.00 2e2?38,415 14.62 12.6 14.5 24.3 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 0.00 2024 38.415 14.62 12.6 14.5 24.3 34,573 3,84)0.00 0.97 0.92 2025 38,415 14.62 12.6 14.5 24.3 34,4573 3,841 0.00 9.00 0.00 S38 UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR ENERGY PRODUCTION MODERATE GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE B(1) -GEOTHERMAL BINARY SYSTEM (ONE UNIT)DIESEL CAPACITY CAPACITY ADDITION/ ENERGY COINCIDENT GBOTHERMAT.DIESEL FIRM GBOTHERMAL DIESEL ADDITION REPLACEMENT REPLACEMENT USE PEAK CAPACITY CAPACITY CAPACITY PRODUCTION PRODUCTION SCHEDULE SCHEDULE SCHEDULE YEAR (Mwh/yr)(Mw)(Mv)(Mw)(MW)(Mwh/yr)(Mwh/yr )(Mw)(MW)(Mw) 1985 13,663 5.20 0.0 3.9 2.5 0 13,663 0.00 0.00 0.00 1986 16,435 6.25 0.0 3.9 2.5 0 16,435 0.00 0.00 0.00 1987 19,233 7.32 0.0 9.5 6.7 0 19,233 5.60 0.00 5.60 1988 22,058 8.39 0.0 12.0 9.2 0 22,058 2.50 0.00 2.50 1989 24.664 9.38 0.0 14.5 11.7 [*)24,664 2.50 0.00 2.50 1990 27,279 10.38 3.4 14.5 15.1 26,411 867 0.00 0.00 9.00 1993 28,721 10.93 3.4 14.5 15.1 26,411 2,310 0.00 0.00 0.00 1992 30,174 11.48 3.4 34.5 15.1 26,411 3.762 0.00 0.00 0.00 1993 31,638 12.04 3.4 14.5 15.1 26,411 5.226 0.00 0.00 0.00 1994 33,113 12.60 3.4 14.5 15.1 26-411 6,702 ,0.00 0.00 0.00 1995 34,6090 13.17 3.4 14.5 15.1 26-411 8.189 0.00 0.00 0.00 1996 34,917 13.29 3.4 14.5 15.1 26,411 8,505 0.00 0.30 0.30 1997 35,246 13.41 3.4 14.5 15.1 26-411 8,835 0.00 0.60 0.60 1998 35-589 13.54 3.4 14.5 15.1 26,411 9,178 0.00 9.00 0.00 1999 35,946 13.68 3.4 14.5 15.1 26-411 9,535 0.00 0.00 0.00 200 36,317 13.82 3.4 24.5 15.1 26,412 9,906 0.00 0.00 0.00 200i 36,704 13.97 3.4 14.5 15.1 26,411 10,293 0.00 0.60 0.60 2002 37,106 14.12 3.4 14.5 18.2 26-411 10,695 0.00 0.00 0.00 2002 37,525 14.28 3.4 14.5 15.1 26-411 11,114 0.00 0.00 0.00 2004 37,961 14.44 3.4 14.5 15.1 26-411 11,550 0.00 0.92 0.92 2005 38,415 14.62 3.4 14.5 15.1 26,411 12,004 0.00 0.00 0.00 2006 38,415 14.62 3.4 14.5 15.1 26.412 12,004 0.00 0.00 0.00 2007 38,415 14.62 3.4 14.5 15.1 26,412 12,004 0.00 5.60 5.60 2008 38,415 14.62 3.4 14.5 15.1 26-411 12,004 0.00 2.50 2.50 2009 38,415 14.62 3.4 314.5 15.1 26,411 12-004 0.00 2-50 2.50 2030 38,415 14.62 3.4 14.5 15.1 26-411 *12,004 0.00 0.00 0.00 201)38,415 14.62 3.4 14.5 15.1 26,411 12,004 0.00 0.00 0.00 2012 38,415 14.62 3.4 14.5 15.1 26-411 12,004 0.00 0.00 0.00 2013 38,415 14.62 3.4 14.5 15.1 26-411 12-004 0.00 0.00 0.00 2014 38,415 14.62 3.4 14.5 "15.1 26-411 12,004 0.00 0.00 0.00 2015 38,415 14.62 3.4 14.5 15.1 26,411 12,004 0.00 0.00 0.00 2016 38.415 14.62 3.4 14.5 15.1 26,412 12,004 0.00 0.30 0.30 2017 38-415 14.62 3.4 14.5 15.2 26,411 12,004 0.00 0.60 0.60 2018 38,415 14.62 3.4 14.5 15.1 26-411 12,004 0.00 0.00 0.00 2019 38,415 14.62 3.4 14.5 15.1 26/411 12,004 0.00 0.00 0.00 2020 38,415 14.62 3.4 14.5 15.1 26,413 12,004 0.00 0.00 0.00 202).38,415 14.62 3.4 14.5 15.1 26-411 12,004 0.00 0.60 0.60 2022 38,415 14.62 3.4 14.5 15.1 26-411 12,004 -0.00 0.00 0.00 2023 38,415 14.62 3.4 14.5 15.2 26-411 12,004 0.00 0.00 0.00 2924 38.415 14.62 3.4 14.5 15.1 26-411 12,004 0.00 0.92 0.92 2025 38,415 14.62 3.4 14.5 15.1 26,411 12,004 0.00 0.00 0.00 98 UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR ENERGY PRODUCTION MODERATF,GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE B(2)--GEOTHERMAL BINARY SYSTEM (TWO UNITS)DIESEL CAPACITY CAPACITY ADDITION/ ENERGY COINCIDENT GEOTHERMAL DIESEL FIRM GBOTHERMAL DIESEL ADDITION REPLACEMENT REPLACEMENT USE PEAK CAPACITY CAPACITY CAPACITY PRODUCTION PRODUCTION SCHEDULE SCHEDULE SCHEDULE (Mwh/yr )(Mw)(Mv)(Mw)(Mw)(Mwh/yr)(Mwh/yr )(Mw)(mw)(Mw) 13,663 5.20 0.0 3.9 2.5 0 13,663 0.00 0.00 0.00 16.435 6.25 0.0 3.9 2.5 t)16,435 0.00 0.00 0.00 19,233 7.32 0.0 9.5 6.7 [¢]19-233 5.60 0.00 5.60 22,058 8.39 0.0 12.0 9.2 Qo 22,058 2.50 0.00 2.50 24,664 9.38 0.0 14.5 11.7 0 24,664 2.50 0.00 2.50 27,279 10.38 6.7 14.5 18.4 24,551 2.728 0.00 0.00 Q.00 28,721 10.93 6.7 14.5 18.4 25,849 2.872 0.00 0.00 0.00 30,274 11.48 6.7 14.5 18.4 27,157 3-017 0.00 0.00 0.00 31,638 12.04 6.7 14.5 18.4 28,474 3.164 0.00 -0.00 0.00 33,223 12.60 6.7 14.5 18.4 29,802 3,311 0.00 0.00 0.00 34,600 13.17 6.7?14.5 18.4 31,140 3,460 0.00 0.00 0.00 14,7 13.29 6.7 14.5 18.4 31.425 3,492 0.00 0.30 0.30 35.246 13.41 6.7 14.5 18.4 31,722 3,525 0.00 0.60 0.60 35,589 13.54 6.7 14.5 18.4 32,030 3.559 0.00 0.00 '0.00 35,946 13.68 6.7 14.5 18.4 32,351 3,595 0.00 0.00 0.00 36.317 13.82 6.7 14.5 18.4 32,686 3,632 0.00 0.00 0.00 36,704 13.97 6.7?14.5 18.4 33,034 3.670 0.00 0.60 0.60 37.1206 14.12 6.7 14.5 18.4 33,396 .3,711 0.00 0.00 0.00 37,525 14.28 6.7 14.5 18.4 33.773 3.753 0.00 0.00 0.00 37,961 14.44 6.7 14.5 18.4 34,165 3.796 0.00 0.92 0.92 38,415 14.62 6.7 14.5 18.4 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 0.00 38,415 14.62 6.7 14.5 18.4 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 0.00 38,415 14.62 6.7 14.5 18.4 34,573 3,841 0.00 5.60 5.60 28,415 14.62 6.7 14.5 18.4 34,573 3-841 0.00 2.50 2-50 38,415 14.62 6.7 14.5 18.4 34,573 3,841 0.00 2.50 2.50 38,415 14.62 6.7 14.5 18.4 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 0.00 38-415 14.62 6.7 14.5 18.4 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 0.00 38.415 14.62 6.7 14.5 18.4 34,573 .3,841 0.00 0.00 0.00 38,415 14.62 6.7 14.5 18.4 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 0.00" 38,415 14.62 6.7 14.5 18.4 34.573 3,641 ©0.00 0.00 0.00 38,415 14.62 6.7 14.5 18.4 34,5873 3,841 0.00 0.00 0.00 38,435 14.62 6.7 14.5 18.4 34,573 3,84)0.00 0.30 0.30 38,415 14.62 6.7 14.5 18.4 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.60 0.60 38.415 14.62 6.7 14.5 18.4 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 0.00 38,415 14.62 6.7 24.5 18.4 34,573 3,842 0.00 0.00 0.00 38,415 14.62 6.7 14.5 18.4 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 0.00 38,415 14.62 6.7 14.5 18.4 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.60 0.60 28.415 14.62 6.7 14.5 18.4 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 0.00 38.415 14.62 6.7 14.5 18.4 34,573 3,641 0.00 0.00 0.00 3B,4S 14.62 6.7 14.5 18.4 34,573 3,841 0.00 ,0.92 0.92 38,415 14.62 6.7 14.5 18.4 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 0.00 L8 1DDinana32Oo007030GDNNhteNWNtsNeQoooo0otAPSDNAee:dwwihinw©weUNALASKA/DUTCH HAREOR ENERGY PRODUCTION MODERATE GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE B(3)--GDOTHERMAL BINARY SYSTEM (THREE UNITS)DIESEL CAPACITY CAPACITY ADDITION/ ENERGY COINCIDENT GEOTHERMAL DICSEL FIRM GBOTHERMAL DIESEL ADDITION REPLACEMENT REPLACEMENT USE PEAK CAPACITY CAPACITY CAPACITY PRODUCTION PRODUCTION SCHEDULE SCHEDULE SCHEDULE (Min/yr)(MW)(MW)(Mv)(Mw)(MWh/yr)(MWh/yr)(MW)(Mw)(Mw) 13,663 5.20 0.0 3.9 2.5 QO,13-663 0.00 0.00 0.00 16.435 6.25 0.90 3.9 2.5 Qo 16,435 0.00 0.00 0.00 29,233 7.32 9.0 9.5 6.7 0 19,233 5.60 0.00 5.60 22,958 8.39 0.0 12.0 9.2 Q 22,058 ©2.50 0.00 2-50 24,664 9.38 0.0 14.5 11.7 0 24-664 2.50 0.00 2.50 27,279 10.38 10.0 14.5 21.7 24,551 2.728 0.00 0.00 0.00 28,721 10.93 10.0 14.5 21.7 25.849 2,872 9.00 0.00 0.00 20,374 11.48 10.0 14.5 21.7 27,157 3,017 0.00 0.00 0.00 1,638 12.04 10.0 14.5 21.7 28,474 3,164 0.00 0.00 0.00 336113 12.60 10.0 14.5 21.7 29,802 3,311 0.00 0.00 0.00 34,600 13.17 10.0 14.5 21.7 31,140 3.460 0.00 0.00 0.00 34,917 13.29 10.0 14.5 21.7 *31.425 3,492 '0.00 0.30 0.30 35,246 13.41 10.0 14.5 21.7 31-722 3,525 0.00 0.60 0.60 35,589 13.54 10.0 14.5 21.7 32,030 3-559 0.00 0.00 0.00 35,946 13.68 10.0 14.5 21.7 3o abe 3,595 0.00 0.00 0.00 36,317 13.82 10.0 14.5 21.7 32,686 3.632 0.00 0.00 0.00 36.704 13.97 10.0 14.5 21.7 33,034 3,670 0.00 0.60 0.60 37,106 14.12 10.0 14.5 21.7 33,396 3.711 0.00 0.00 0.00 37,325 14.28 10.0 14.5 21.7 33,773 3.753 0.00 0.00 0.00 37,961 14.44 10.0 14.5 21.7 34-165 3.6796 0.00 0.92 0.92 38.415 14.62 10.0 14.5 21.7 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 0.00 38,415 34.62 10.0 14.5 21.7 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 0.00 38-415 14.62 10.0 14.5 21.7 34,573 3,841 0.00 5.60 5.60 38,415 14.62 10.0 14.5 21.7 34,573 3,841 0.00 2.50 2.50 38,415 14.62 10.0°14.5 21.7 34,573 3,84)0.00 2.50 2.50 38,415 14.62 10.0 14.5 21.7 34,573 36841 0.00 0.00 0.00 38,415 14.62 10.0 14.5 21.7 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 0.00 38.415 14.62 10.0 14.5 21.7 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 0.00 38,415 14.62 10.0 14.5 21.7 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 0.00 38,415 14.62 10.0 14.5 21.7 34,573 3,841 0.00 9.00 0.00 38,415 14.62 10.0 14.5 21.7 34,573 ,3,841 0.00 0.00 0.00 38.415 14.62 10.0 34.5 21.7 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.30 9.30 33,415 14.62 10.0 14.5 21.7 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.60 0.60 28.415 14.62 10.0 14.5 21.7 34,573 3,84)0.00 0.00 0.00 38,415 14.62 10.0 14.5 21.7 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 0.00 38.415 14.62 10.0 24.5 21.7 '34.573 3,841 0.00 0.00 0.00 38,425 _14.62 10.0 14.5 21.7 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.60 0.60 38,415 14.62 10.0 14.5 21.7 34.573 3,841 0.00 0.00 0.00 38,415 14.62 10.0 14.5 21.7 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 0.00 38,415 14.62 10.0 14.5 21.7 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.92 0.92 38.425 14.62 10.0 14.5 21.7 34,573 3,841 0.00 0.00 0.00 88 YE4R 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992- 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2002 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2012 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 20253 UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR ENERGY PRODUCTION MODERATE GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE B(4)--GDOTHERMAL BINARY SYSTEM (FOUR UNITS) ENERGY COINCIDENT GEOTHERMAL USE (Mwh/yr) 13,663 16,435 19,233 22,058 24,664 27.279 28,721 30,174 31,638 33,113 34,600 34,917 35-246 35,589 35,946 36,317 36,704 37.106 37,525 37,961 38,415 38.415 38,415 38.415 38.415 38,415 38,415 38,415 38,415 38.415 38,415 38,415 38.415 38,415 38-415 38.415 38,415 38,415 38.415 38.415 38,415 PESK (MW) 5.20 6.25 7.32 8.39 9.38 10.38 10.93 11.48 12.04 12.60 13.17 13.29 13.41 13.54 13.68 13.82 13.97 14.12 14.28 14.44 14.62 14.62 14.62 14.62 14.62 34.62 14.62 14.62 14.62 14.62 14.62 14.62 14.62 14.62 14.62 14.62 14.62 14.62 14.62 14.62 14.62 CAPACITY (MW) FIRM GDOTIIERMAL CAPACITY PRODUCTION (Mw)(Mwh/yr) \eooo0o°o24,551 25,849 27,157 28,474 29,802 31,140 31.425 31,722 32,030 32,351 32,686 33,034 33,396© 34,165 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34.573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 DIESEL PRODUCTION (Mwh/yr) 13,663 16,435 319,233 22,058 24,664 2.728 2,872 3.017 3,164 3,311 3,460 3,492 3-525 3,559 3,895 36632 3,670 3,711 36753 34796 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,84) 3,841 3,841 3,841 DIESCL CAPACITY CAPACITY AODITION/S ADDITION REPLACEMENT REPLACEMENT SCHEDULE SCHEDULE SCHEDULE (MW)(Mw)(MW) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.60 0.00 5.60 2.50 0.00 2.30 2.50 0.00 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.30 0.30 0.00 0.60 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.60 0.60 0.00 0.00 0-00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.92 0.92 0.00 00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.60 5.60 0.00 2.50 2.50 0.00 2.50 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.30 0.30 0.00 0.60 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.60 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.92 0.92, 0.00 0.00 0.00 68 UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR ENERGY PRODUCTION MODERATE GROWTIT SCENARTO ALTERNATIVE C(1)--HYDROELECTRIC SYSTEM DIESEL CAPACITY CAPACITY ADDITION/ ENERGY COINCIDENT HYDROPOWER DIESEL FIRM HYDROPOWER DIESEL'ADDITION REPLACEMENT REPLACEMENT USE PEAK CAPACITY CAPACITY CAPACITY PRODUCTION PRODUCTION SCHEDULE SCHEDULE SCHEDULE YEAR (Muh/yr )(Mw)(Mv)(mw)(Mw)(MWh/yr )(MWh/yr)(Mw)(MW)(MW) 1985 13,663 5.20 (*)3.9 2.50 0 13,663 0.00 0.00 0.00 1986 16-435 6.25 (e)3.9 2.50 (s)16,435 0.00 0.00 0.00 1987 19,233 7.32 0 9.5 6.70 0 19,233 5.60 0.00 5.60 1988 22,058 8.39 fe)12.0 9.20 ()22,058 2.50 0.00 2.50 1989 24,664 9.38 0.70 12.0 9.90 3,114 21,550 0.00 0.00 0.00 1990 27,279 10.38 0.70 14.5 12.40 3.114 24,165 2.50 0.00 2.50 1993 28,721 10.93 0.70 14.5 12.40 3,114 25,607 0.00 0.00 0.00 399?40,374 11.48 0.70 14.5 12.40 3.114 27,060 0.00 0.00 0.00 1993 32,638 12.04 0.70 14.5 12.40 3,114 28,524 0.00 0.00 0.00 1994 33,113 12.60 0.70 17.0 14.90 3,214 29,999 2.50 0.00 2.50 1995 34.600 13.17 0.70 17.0 14.90 3,114 31,486 0.00 0.00 0.00 1996 34,917 13.29 0.70 17.0 14.90 3,114 31,803 0.00 0.30 0.30 1997 35,246 13.41 0.70 17.0 14.90 3,114 32-132 0.00 0.60 0.60 3998 15,589 13.54 0.70 17.0 14.90 3,114 32,475 0.00 0.00 0.00 1999 35,946 13.68 0.70 17.0 14.90 3,114 32,832 0.00 0.00 0.00 200 26,317 13.82 0.70 17.0 14.90 3diia 33,203 0.00 0.00 0.00 2691 36,704 13.97 0.70 17.0 14.90 3,114 33,590 0.00 0.60 0.60 2702 37,106 14.12 0.70 17.0 14.90 3.114 33,992 0.00 0.00 0.00 20023 37,525 14.28 0.70 17.0 14.90 3114 34,411 0.00 0.00 0.00 2004 37,961 14.44 0.70 17.0 14.90 3.114 34,847 0.00 0.92 0.92 2005 36,415 14.62 0.70 17.0 14.90 3,114 35,301 0.00 0.00 0.00 2006 28.415 14.62 0.70 17.0 14.90 3-114 35,301 0.00 0.00 0.00 2007 38,415 14.62 0.70 17.0 14.90 3,114 35,301 0.00 5.60 5.60 2908 28,415 14.62 0.70 17.0 14.90 3,114 35,301 0.00 2.80 2.50 2009 38,415 14.62 0.70 17.0 14.90 3-114 35,301 0.00 0.00 0.00 7010 38,415 14.62 0.70 17.0 14.90 3,114 -35,301 0.00 2.50 2.50 2011 38,415 14.62 0.70 17.0 14.90 3,114 35,301 0.00 0.00 0.00 2012 38,415 14.62 0.70 17.0 14.90 3,114 35,301 0.00 0.00 0.00 2027 38,415 14.62 0.70 17.0 14.90 3-114 35,301 0.00 0.00 0.00 2014 38,415 14.62 0.70 17.0 14.90 3,114 35,301 0.00 2.50 2.50 2013 38,415 14.62 0.70 17.0 14.90 3,114 35,301 0.00 0.00 0.00 2016 38,415 14.62 0.70 17-0 14.90 3,114 35,301 0.00 0.30 0.30 2017 38,415 14.62 0.70 17.0 14.90 3-114 35,301 0.00 0.60 0.60 2018 38,415 14.62 0.70 17.0 14.90 3,114 35,301 0.00 0.00 0.00 2019 38,415 14.62 0.70 17.0 14.90 3,114 35,301 0.00 0.00 0.00 2020 3B.415 14.62 0.70 17-0 14.90 3,114 35,301 0.00 0.00 0.00 2021 38,415 14.62 0.70 17.0 14.90 3,114 35,301 0.00 0.60 0.60 2022 48,415 14.62 0.70 17.0 14.90 3,114 35,301 0.00 0.00 0.00 2021 38,415 14.62 0.70 17.0 14.90 3,114 35,301 0.00 0.00 0.00 2024 18,415 14.62 0.70 17.0 14.90 -3,114 35,301 0.00 0.92 0.92 2035 38,415 14.62 0.70 -17.0 14.90 3,114 35,301 0.00 0.00 0.00 06 UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR ENERGY PRODUCTION MODERATE GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE C(2)--HYDROELECTRIC SYSTEM DIESEL CAPACITY CAPACITY ADDITION/ FNERGY COINCIDENT HYDROPOWER DIESEL FIRM HYDROPOWER DIESEL ADDITION REPLACEMENT REPLACEMENT usr:PEAK CAPACITY CAPACITY CAPACITY PRODUCTION PRODUCTION SCHEDULE SCHEDULE SCHEDULE VIER (MWh/yr )(Mw)(Mw)(Mw)(MW)(Mwh/yr )(MWh/yr)(Ma)(Mw)(Mw) 1985 13,663 5.20 (¢)3.9 2.50 0 13,663 0.00 0.00 0.00 1LORG 16,435 6.25 (0)3.9 2.50 ()16,435 0.00 0.00 0.00 1987 19,233 7.32 [e)9.5 6.70 (¢)19-233 5.60 0.00 5.60 1988 22,058 8.39 (}12.0 9.20 )22-058 2.50 0.00 2.50 1989 24,664 9.38 0.26 12.0 9.46 2.174 22,490 0.00 0.00 0.00 £990 27,279 10.38 0.26 14.5 11.96 2,174 25.105 2.50 0.00 2.50 1992 22,722 10.93 0.26 14.5 11.96 2,174 26,547 0.00 0.00 0.00 1992 20,174 12.48 0.26 14.5 11.96 2,174 28,000 0.00 0.00 0.00 199]31,638 12.04 0.26 17.0 14.46 2,174 29,464 2.50 0.00 2.50 1994 33,113 12.60 0.26 17.0 14.46 2.174 30.939 0.00 0.00 0.00 1995 34,600 13.17 0.26 17.0 14.46 2,174 32,426 0.00 0.00 0.00 1996 34,917 13.29 0.26 17.0 14.46 2.174 32,743 0.00 0.30 0.30 1997 35,246 13.41 0.26 17.0 14.46 2.174 33,072 0.00 0.60 0.60 3998 25,389 13.54 0.26 17.0 14.46 2.174 33,415 0.00 0.00 0.00 1999 35,946 13.68 0.26 17.0 14.46 2,174 33,772 0.00 0.00 0.00 Z¢00 36,317 13.82 0.26 17.0 14.46 2.174 34,143 0.00 0.00 0.00 2002 36,704 13.97 0.26 17.0 14.46 2,174 34,530 0.00 0.60 0.60 2902 37,106 14.12 0.26 '17.0 14.46 2.174 34,932 0.00 0.00 0.00 2003 37,525 14.28 0.26 17.0 14.46 2.174 35,351 0.00 0.00 0.00 2004 37,961 14.44 0.26 17.0 14.46 2-174 35,787 0.00 0.92 0.92 2005 38,415 14.62 0.26 19.5 16.96 2.174 36,241 2.50 0.00 2.50 2006 38,415 14.62 0.26 19.5 16.96 2.174 36-241 0.00 0.00 0.00 2007 38,415 14.62 0.26 19.5 16.96 2-174 36,241 0.00 5.60 5.60 2008 38,415 14.62 0.26 19.5 16.96 2,174 36,241 0.00 2.50 2.50 2909 38,415 14.62 0.26 19.5 16.96 2.174 36,241 0.00 0.00 0.00 2010 38,425 14.62 0.76 19.5 16.96 2.174 36,241 0.00 2.50 2.50 201!38,415 14.62 0.26 19.5 16.96 2,174 36.241 0.00 0.00 0.00 2012 38,415 14.62 0.26 19.5 16.96 2.174 36,241 0.00 0.00 0.00 2013 38,415 14.62 0.26 19.5 16.96 2,174 36,241 0.00 2.50 2.50 2014 38,415 14.6?0.26 19.5 16.96 ©2.174 36,241 0.00 0.00 0.00 2025 38-415 14.62 0.26 19.5 16.96 2,174 36,241 0.00 0.00 0.00 70:6 38,415 14.62 0.26 19.5 16.96 2.174 36,241 0.00 0.30 0.30 201?38,4135 14.62 0.26 19.5 16.96 2,174 36,241 0.00 0.60 0.60 20:8 38,415 14.62 0.76 19.5 16.96 2,174 36,241 0.00 0.00 0.00 2019 38,425 14.62 0.26 19.5 16.96 2,174 36-24)0.00 0.00 0.00 P29 38,415 14.62 0.26 19.5 16.96 2.174 36,241 0.00 0.00 0.00 me:38,415 14.62 0.76 19.5 16.96 2-174 36,241 0.00 0.60 0.60 mgn2 38,415 14.62 0.26 19.5 16.96 2,174 36,241 0.00 0.00 0.00 2923 38,435 14.62 0.76 19.5 16.96 2,174 36,241 0.00 0.00 0.00 BI24 38,415 14.62 0.26 19.4 16.96 2,174 36,241 0.00 0.92 0.92 2073 38,415 14.62 0.26 19.5 16.96 2,174 36.241 0.00 2.50 2.50 T6 UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR ENERGY PRODUCTION MODERATE,GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE C(3)--HYDROELECTRIC SYSTEM DIESEL CAPACITY CAPACITY ADDITION/ ENERGY COINCIDENT HYDROPOVER DIESEL FIRM HYDROPOWER DIESEL ADDITION REPLACEMENT REPLACEMENT USE PEAK CAPACITY CAPACITY CAPACITY PRODUCTION PRODUCTION SCHEDULE SCHEDULE SCHEDULE YEAR (mWn/yr)(mw)(my)(mw)(mw)(MWh/yr)(Mwh/yr )(Mw)(MW)(Mw) 1985 13,663 5.20 0 3.9 2.50 oO.13,663 0.00 0.00 0.00 3986 16,435 6.25 i?)3.9 2.50 0 16,435 0.00 0.00 0.00 1987 19,233 7.32 0 9.5 6.70 0 19,233 5.60 0.00 5.60 1988 22,058 8.39 (9)12.0 9.20 0 22,058 2.50 0.00 2-50 1989 24,664 9.38 :0.96 12.0 10.16 5,288 19,376 0.00 0.00 0.00 1990 27.279 10.38 0.96 14.5 12.66 5,288 21,991 2.50 0.00 2.50 1992 28,721 10.93 0.96 14.5 12.66 5,288 23,433 0.00 0.00 0.00 1992 30,174 11.48 0.96 14.5 12.66 5,288 24,886 0.00 0.00 0.00 1993 31,638 12.04 0.96 14.5 12.66 5,288 26,350 0.00 0.00 0.00 1994 33,113 12.60 0.96 14.5 12.66 5,288 27,825 0.00 0.00 0.00 1995 34,600 13.17 0.96 17.0 15.16 5,288 29,312 2-50 0.00 2.50 1996 34,917 13.29 0.96 17.0 15.16 5,288 29,629 0.00 0.30 0.30 1997 35,246 13.41 0.96 17.0 15.16 5,288 29,958 0.00 0.60 0.60 1998 35.589 13.54 0.96 17.0 15.16 5,288 30,301 0.00 0.00 0.00 1999 35,946 13.68 0.96 17.0 15.16 5,288 30,658 0.00 0.00 0.00 2900 36,317 13.82 0.96 17.0 15.16 5,288 |31,029 0.00 0.00 0.00 2901.36,704 13.97 0.96 17.0 15.16 5,288 31,416 0.00 0.60 0.60 2902 37,106 14.12 0.96 17.0 15.16 5,288 31,818 0.00 0.00 0.00 2003 37,525 14.28 0.96 17.0 15.16 5,288 32,237 0.00 0.00 0.00 2004 37,961 14.44 0.96 17.0 15.16 5,288 32,673 0.00 0.92 0.92 2005 38,415 14.62 0.96 27.0 15.16 5.288 33,127 0.00 0.00 0.00 7006 38,415 14.62 0.96 17.0 15.126 5,288 33,127 0.00 0.00 0.00 2097 38,415 14.62 0.96 17.0 18.16 5,286 -33,127 0.00 5.60 5.60 2008 38,415 14.62 0.96 17.0 15.16 5,288 33,127 0.00 2.50 2.50 2009 38,415 14.62 0.96 17.0 15.16 5,288 33,127 0.00 0.00 0.00 2010 38.435 14.62 0.96 17.0 15.16 5,288 33,127 0.00 2.50 2.50 2632 38,415 14.62 0.96 17.0 15.16 5,288 33,127 0.00 0.00 0.00 2012 "38,415 14.62 0.96 17.0 15.16 5,288 33,127 0.00 0.00 0.00 2013 38,415 14.62 0.96 17.0 15.16 5,288 33,127 0.00 0.00 0.00 2024 38,415 14.62 0.96 17.0 15.16 5,288 33,127 0.00 0.00 0.00 2015 38,415 14.62 0.96 17.0 15.16 5,288 33,127 0.00 2.50 2.50 2036 38.415 14.62 0.96 17.0 15.16 5,288 33.12)0.00 0.30 0.30 2017 38,415 14.62 0.96 17.0 15.16 5,288 33,127 0.00 0.60 0.60 2018 38,415 14.62 0.96 17.0 15.16 5,288 33,127 0.00 0.00 0.00 2019 38,415 14.62 0.96 17.0 15.16 5,288 33,127 0.00 0.00 0.00 2929 38,415 14.62 0.96 17.0 15.16 5,288 33,127 0.00 0.00 0.00 2021 38,415 14.62 0.96 17.0 15.16 5,288 33,127 0.00 0.60 0.60 2922 38,415 14.62 0.96 17.0 15.16 5,288 33,127 0.00 0.00 0.00 2023 38.415 14.62 0.96 17.0 15.16 5,288 33,127 0.00 0.00 0.00 2024 38,415 14.62 0.96 17.0 15.16 5,288 33,127 0.00 0.92 0.92 2025 38,415 14.62 0.96 17.0 15.16 5,288 33,127 0.00 0.00 0.00 26 UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR ENERGY PRODUCTION HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO BASE CASE CAPACITY CAPACITY ADDITION/ FNERGY COINCIDENT DIESEL FIRM DIESEL ADDITION REPLACEMENT REPLACEMENT USE PEAK CAPACITY CAPACITY PRODUCTION SCHCDULE SCHEDULE SCHEDULE YEAR (MWh/yr )(Mw)(MW)(mw)(Muh/yr )(Mw)(Mw)(mw) 1985 13,663 5.20 3.9 2.5 13,663 0.00 0.00 0.00 1986 16,941 6.45 3.9 2.5 16,941 0.00 0.00 0.00 1987 20,933 7.96 9.5 6.7 20,913 5.60 0.00 §.60 1988 24,844 9.45 12.0 9.2 24,844 2.50 0.00 2.50 2989 28,510 10.65 14.5 11.7 28,510 2.50 0.00 2.50 1990 32,265 12.28 17.0 14.2 32,265 2.50 0.00 2.50 1991 35,104 13.36 17.0 14.2 35.104 0.00 0.00 0.00 !992 37,884 14.42 19.5 16.7 37.884 2.50 0.00 2.50 1993 40,956 15.58 19.5 16.7 40,956 0.00 0.00 0.00 1996 44,331 16.87 22.0 19.2 44,331 2.50 0.00 2.50 1995 47,690 18.15 22.0 19.2 47,690 0.00 0.00 0.00 1996 50.171 19.09 22.0 19.2 50,171 0.00 0.30 0.30 1997 34,508 20.74 24.5 21.7 54,508 2.50 0.60 3.10 1998 58.376 22.21 27.0 24.2 58.376 2-50 0.00 2.50 1999 62,46?23.77 27.0 24.2 62,467 0.00 0.00 0.00 o6990 66,804 25.42 29.5 26.7 66,804 2.50 0.00 2.50 2001 71,417 27.18 32.0 29.2 71,417 2.50 0.60 3.10 200?76,334 29.05 32.0 29.2 76,334 9.00 0.00 0.00 2003 81,422 30.98 34.5 31.7 81,422 2-50 0.00 2.50 2004 86,885 33.06 37.0 34.2 86,885 2.50 0.92 3.42 2605 92,765 35.30 39.5 36.7 92,765 2.50 0.00 2.50 2006 92,765 35.30 39.5 36.7 92,765 0.00 0.00 0.00 2007 92,765 35.30 39.5 36.7 92,765 0.00 5.60 5.60 2008 92,765 35.30 39.5 36.7 92,765 0.00 2.50 2.50 2009 92,765 35.30 39.3 36.7 92,765 0.00 2.50 2.50 20130 92,765 35.30 39.5 36.7 92.765 0.00 2.50 2.50 2011 92,765 35.30 39.5 36.7 92,765 0.00 0.00 0.00 2012 92,765 35.30 39.5 36.7 92,765 0.00 2.50 2.50 2013 92,765 35.30 39.5 36.7 92,765 0.00 0.00 0.00 2014 92.765 35.30 39.5 36.7 92,765 0.00 2.50 2.50 POLS 92,765 35.30 39.5 36.7 92,765 0.00 0.00 0.00 2016 92,765 35.30 39.5 36.7 92,765 0.00 0.30 0.30 2027 92,765 35.30 39.5 36.7 92,765 0.00 3.10 3.10 2038 92,765 35.30 39.5 36.7 92,765 Q.00 2.50 2.50 2919 92,765 35.30 39.3 36.7 92,765 0.00 0.00 0.00 2020 92,765 35.30 39.5 36.7 92,765 0.00 2.50 2.50 202)92.765 35.30 39.5 36.7 92,765 0.00 3.10 3.10 2022 92.765 35.30 39.5 36.7 92,765 0.00 0.00 0.00 2923 92,765 35.30 39.5 36.7 *92,765 0.00 2.50 2.50 2024 92,763 35.30 39.5 6.7 92,765 0.00 3.42 3.42 7025 92,765 35.30 39.5 36.7 92,765 0.00 2.50 2.50 €6 UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR ENERGY PRODUCTION HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE A(]1)--GEOTHERMAL TOTAL FLOW SYSTEM (ONE UNIT)DIESEL CAPACITY CAPACITY ADDITION/ ENERGY COINCIDENT GEOTHERMAL DIESEL FIRM GEOTHERMAL DIESEL ADDITION REPLACEMENT REPLACEMENT USE PEAK CAPACITY CAPACITY CAPACITY PRODUCTION PRODUCTION SCHEDULE SCHEDULE SCHEDULE (mWh/yr)(Mw)(MW)(Mv)(MW)(Mwh/yr )(MWh/yr )(Mw)(Mw)(Mw) 13,663 5.20 0 3.9 2.5 0 13,663 0.00 0.00 0.0 16,941 6.45 (e)3.9 2-5 (°)16-941 0.00 0.00 0.0 20,913 7.96 0 9.5 6.7 0 20,913 5.60 0.00 5.6 24,844 9.45 0 12.0 9.2 i')24,844 2.50 0.00 2.5 28,510 10.85 te)14.5 11.7 te)28,510 2.50 0.00 2.5 32,265 12.28 2.1 14.5 13.8 16,556 15-709 0.00 0.00 0.0 35,104 13.36 2.1 14.5 13-8 16,556 18,547 0.00 0.00 0.0 37,884 14.42 2.1 17.0 16.3 16,556 21,328 2.50 0.00 2.5 40,956 15.58 2-1 17.0 16.3 16-556 24,399 0.00 0.00 0.0 44,331 16.87 2.1 19.5 18.8 16,556 27,775 2.50 0.00 2.5 47,690 18.15 2.1 19.5 18.8 16,556 32,134 0.00 0.00 0.0 50,171 19.09 2.1 22.0 21.3 16,556 33,614 2.50 0.30 2.8 54,508 20.74 2.1 22.0 21.3 16,556 37-952 0.00 0.60 0.6 58,376 22.21 2.2 24.5 23.8 16,556 41,819 2.50 0.00 2.5 62,467 23.77 2.1 24.5 23.8 16,556 45,911 0.00 0.00 0.0 66,804 25.42 2.1 27.0 26.3 16,556 50-248 2-50 0.00 2.5 71-417 27.18 2.1 29.5 28.8 16,556 54,861 2.50 0.60 3.1 76.334 .29.05 2-1.32.0 31.3 16,556 59.778 2.50 0.00 2.5 81,422 30.98 2-1 32.0 31.3 16,556 64,866 0.00 0.00 0.0 86,885 33.06 2.1 34.5 33.8 16,556 70.329 2.50 0.92 3.4 92,765 35.30 2-1 37.0 36.3 216,556 76,209 2.50 0.00 2.5 92.765 35.30 2-1 37.0 36.3 16,556 76,209 0.00 0.00 0.0 92,765 35.30 2.1 37.0 36.3 16,556 76,209 0.00 5.60 5.6 92,765 35.30 2.1 37.0 36.3 16-556 764209 0.00 2.50 2.5 92,765 35.30 2.1 37.0 36.3 16,556 76,209 0.00 °2.50 2.5 92.765 '35.30 2.1 37.0.36.3 16,556 76,209 0.00 0.00 0.0 92,765 35.30 2.1 37.0 36.3 16,556 76,209 0.00 0.00 0.0 92,765 35.30 2-1 37.0 36.3 16,556 76,209 0.00 2.50 2.5 92,765 35.30 2.1 37.0 36.3 16,556 76.209 *0.00 0.00 0.0 92,765 35.30 2-1 37.0 36.3 16,556 76,209 9.00 2-50 2.5 92,765 35.30 2.1 37.0 36.3 16,556 76,209 0.00 0.00 0.0 92,765 35.30 |2-2 37.0 36.3 16,556 76-209 0.00 2.80 2.8 92,765 35.30 2.1 37.0 36.3 16,556 76,209 0.00 0.60 0.6 92,765 35.30 2.1 37.0 36.3 16,556 76,209 0.00 2.50 2.5 92,765 35.30 2.1 37.0 36.3 16,556 76,209 0.00 0.00 0.0 92,765 35.30 2.1 37.0 36.3 16-556 76.209 0.00 2.50 2.5 92,765 35.30 2.1 37.0 36.3 16,556 76,209 0.00 3.10 3.1 92.765 35.30 2.1 37.0 36.3 16,556 764209 0.00 2.50 2.5 92,765 35.30 2.1 37.0 36.3 16,556 76-209 0.00 0.00 0.0 92.763 35.30 2.1 37.0 36.3 16,556 76-209 0.00 3.42 3.4 92,765 35.30 2.1 37.0 -36.3 16,556 76,209 0.00 2.50 2.5 Oonooooooocoo0oococooooocooonoocooooocoooooooceooeoc°o YEAR 1985 1986 198? 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 °1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 7001 2002 2003 2004 2005 20C6 2007 2008 2009 2030 2012 2912 2023 2014 2025 2016 2017 2018 2919 2029 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR ENERGY PRODUCTION HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE A(2)---GEOTHERMAL TOTAL FLOW SYSTEM (TWO UNITS) ENERGY USE (mMuih/yr) 13,663 16,941 20,913 24,844 28-510 32,265 35,104 37,884 40,956 44,331 47,690 50,171 54,508 58.376 62,467 66,804 W417 76,334 81,422 86.885 92.765 92,765 92,765 92,765 92,765 92,765 92,765 92,765 92,765 92,765 92,765 92,765 92,765 92,765 92,765 92.765 92,765 92,765 92,765 92,765 92,765 COINCIDENT GEOTHERMAL PEAK (Mw) 5.20 6.45 7.96 9.45 10.85 12.28 13.36 14.42 15.58 16.87 18.15 19.09 20.74 22.21 23.77 25.42 27.18 29.05 30.98 33.06 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 e8©©©©88©©©&©©©©8®.NNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNANANNOOOO0pareRRRAHHBRhhHHASHFPSHPHAHHSHoeASASAAFIRM GEOTHERMAL (MW)alodcdlasvueOmNADPyoewwOonvnuauuwCAPACITY PRODUCTION (MWh/yr )ooooso29,039 33-113 33,113 33,113 33.113 33,113 33,113 33,113 33.313 33411333,113 33,113 33,213 33,113 33.113 33,113 33.113 33.113 33,113 33,113 33,113 33,113 33,113 33,113 33.113 33,113 33,113 33,113 33.113 33,113 33,113, 33,113 33,113 33,113 33,113 33,113 DIESEL PRODUCTION (MWh/yr) 13,663 16,941 20,913 24,844 28,510 3,227 1,991 4.771 7,843 11,218 14,577 17,058 21,396 25,263 29,354 33,692 38,305 43,221 48,309 53,772 59,652 $9,652 59,652 59,652 59,652 59,652 89,652 59,652 59,652 59,652 59,652 59,652 59,652 59,652 59,652 59,652 59,652 59,652 59,652 59,652 59,652 DIESEL CAPACITY CAPACITY ADDITION/ ADDITION REPLACEMENT REPLACEMENT SCHEDULE SCHEDULE SCHEDULE (Mw)(Mw)(Mw) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.60 0.00 5.60 2.50 0.00 2-50 2.50 0.00 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 9.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2-50 0.00 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.50 0.30"2.80 0.00 0.60 0.60 2.50 0.00 2.50 2.50 0.00 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.50 0.60 3.10 2.50 0.00 2.50 2.50 0.00 2.50 0.00 0.92 0.92 2.50 0.00 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.60 5.60 0.00 2.50 2.50 0.00 2.50 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.50 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.80 2.80 0.00 0.60 0.60 0.00 2.50 2.50 0.00 2.50 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.10 3.10 0.00 2.50 2.50 0.00 2.50 2.50 0.00 0.92 0.92 0.00 2.50 2.50 G6 UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR ENERGY PRODUCTION HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO . ALTERNATIVE A(3)--GEOTHERMAL TOTAL FLOW SYSTEM (THREE UNITS)DIESEL CAPACITY CAPACITY ADDITION/ ENERGY COINCIDENT GEOTHERMAL DIESEL FIRM GEOTHERMAL DIESEL ADDITION REPLACEMENT REPLACEMENT USF:PEAK CAPACITY CAPACITY CAPACITY PRODUCTION PRODUCTION SCHEDULE SCHEDULE SCHEDULE YEAR (Muh /yr )(MW)(Mw)(Mw)(mw)(Mwh/yr )(MWh/yr)(Mw)(MW)(MW) 1985 13,663 5.20 fe)3.9 2.5 0 13,663 0.00 0.00 0.00 1986 16,941 6.45 Q 3.9 2.5 0 16,941 0.00 0.00 0.00 1987 20,913 7.96 0 9.5 6.7 0 20,913 5.60 0.00 5.60 1988 24,844 9.45 (0)12.0 9.2 te)24,844 2.50 0.00 2.50 1989 28,510 10.85 0 14.5 11.7 0 28,510 2.50 0.00 2.50 1990 32,265 12.28 6.3 14.5 18.0 29,039 3,227 0.00 0.00 0.00 1991 35,104 13.36 6.3 14.5 18.0 31,593 3,510 0.00 0.00 0.00 £992 37,884 14.42 6.3 14.5 18.0 34,096 3,788 0.00 0.00 0.00 1993 49,956 15.58 6.3 14.5 18.0 36,860 4,096 0.00 0.00 0.00 1994 44,331 16.87 6.3 14.5 18.0 39,898 4,433 0.00 0.00 0.00 1995 47,690 18.15 6.3 17.0 20.5 42,921 4,769 2.50 0.00 2.50 1996 30,173 19.09 6.3 17.0 20.5 49,669 502 0.00 '0.30 0.30 1997 54,508 20.74 6.3 19.5 23.0 49,669 4,839 2.50 0.60 3.10 1998 58,376 22.21 6.3 19.5 23.0 49,669 8,707 Q.00 0.00 0.00 1999 62,467 23.77 6.3 22.0 25.5 49,669 12,798 2.50 0.00 2.50 2009 66,804 25.42 6.3 22.0 25.5 49,669 17,135 0.00 0.00 0.00 2001 71,417 27.18 6.3 24.5 28.0 49,669 21,748 2.50 0.60 3.10 2002 76,334 29.05 6.3 27.0 30.5 49,669 26,665 2.50 0.00 2.50 2003 81,422 30.98 6.3 29.5 33.0 49,669 31,753 2.50 0.00 2.50 2004 86,885 33.06 6.3 32.0 35.5 49,669 37,216 2.50 0.92 3.42 2005 92,765 35.30 6.3 32.0 35.5 49,669 43,096 0.00 0.00 0.00 2006 92,765 35.30 6.3 32.0 35.5 49,669 43,096 0.00 0.00 0.00 2007 92,765 35.30 6.3 32.0 35.5 49,669 43,096 0.00 5.60 5.60 2008 92,765 35.30 6.3 32.0 35.5 49,669 43,096 0.00 2.50 2.50 2009 92,765 35.30 6.3 32.0 35.5 49,669 43,096 0.00 2.50 2.50 2010 92,765 35.30 6.3 32.0 35.5 49,669 43,096 0.00 0.00 0.00 2011 92,765 35.30 6.3 32.0 35.5 49,669 43,096 0.00 0.00 0.00 2012 92,765 35.30 6.3 32.0 35.5 49,669 43,096 0.00 0.00 0.00 2013 92,765 35.30 6.3 32.0 35.5 49,669 43,096 0.00 0.00 0.00 2014 92,765 35.30 6.3 32.0 35.5 49,669 43,096 0.00 0.00 0.00 2015 92,765 35.30 6.3 32.0 35.5 49,669 43,096 0.00 2.50 2.50 2016 92,765 35.30 6.3 32.0 35.5 49,669 43,096 0.00 0.30 0.30 2017 92,765 35.30 6.3 32.0 35.5 49,669 43,096 0.00 3.10 3.10 2018 92,765 35.30 6.3 32.0 35.5 49,669 43,096 0.00 0.00 0.00 2019 92,765 35.30 6.3 32.0 35.5 49,669 43,096 0.00 2.50 2.50 2020 92,765 35.30 6.3 32.0 35.5 49,669 43,096 0.00 0.00 0.00 2021 92,765 35.30 6.3 32.0 35.5 49,669 43,096 0.00 3.10 3.10 2022 92.765 35.30 6.3 32.0 35.5 49,669 43,096 0.00 2.50 2.50 2023 92,765 35.30 6.3 32.0 35.5 49,669 43,096 0.00 2.50 2.50 2024 92.765 35.30 6.3 32.0 35-5 49,669 43,096 0.00 3.42 3.42 2025 92,765 35.30 6.3 32.0 35.5 49,669 43,096 0.00 0.00 0.00 96 YEAR 1985 1986 1997 1988 1989 1999 1991 2992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2002 2002 J>Ooee]fo]mWOODGRMeweeoOOEi)idfsteeoWNiSNYENfetyoooooogoooagoaog¢stoppepetbatTADetbeJNENERGY USE (MWh/yc) 13,663 16,941 20,913 24,844 28,520 32,265 35-104 37,884 40,956 44,331 47,690 30,171 54,508 38,376 62,467 66,804 71,417 76,334 81,422 86,885 92,765 92,765 92,765 92.765 92,765 92.765 92,765 92,765 92,765 92,765 92,765 92,765 92,763 92,765 92,765 92,765 92,765 92,765 92,765 92,763 92.765 COINCIDENT GEOTHERMAL PEAK (Mw) 5.20 6.45 7.96 9.45 10.85 12.28 13.36 14.42 15.58 16.87 18.15 19.09 20.74 22.21 23.77 25.42 27.18 29.05 30.98 33.06 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 oepRerhKeREEHaHbSbHhhaHRHHSHOEHPHFHbAHRSHRHoedPHROOTOOSODOOODOOOMDDO@MeaowmawmnwmwrawaoawnwnoamanmaoawmnwneanmanwneoeowmnwveagDIESEL CAPACITY (Mw)uvuovwOooOa.uwUNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR ENERGY PRODUCTION HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE A(4)--GEOTHERMAL TOTAL FLOW SYSTEM (FOUR UNITS) FIRM GEOTHERMAL (Mw) CAPACITY PRODUCTION (MWh/yr)oooo°o29,039 31,593 34,096 36,860 39,898 42,921 45,154 49,058 §2.538 $6,220 66,226 66,226 66,226 66,226 66-226 66-226 66-226 66-226 66-226 66.226 66-226 66,226 66.226 66,226 66,226 66,226 66.226 66,226 66,226 66,226 66.226 66,226 66-226 66-226 66,226 66,226 DIESEL PRODUCTION (MWh/yr) 13,663 16,941 20,913 24,844 28,510 3,227 3-510 3.788 4,096 4,433 4,769 5,017 5-45] 5,838 6,247 579 5.192 10,108 15,196 20,660 26,540 26,540 26,540 26.540 26-540 26,540 26,540 26,540 26,540 26,540 26,540 26,540 26,540 26,540 26,540 26,540 26,540 26-540 26,540 26,540 26,540 DIESEL CAPACITY ADDITION REPLACEMENT REPLACEMENT SCHEDULE ADDITION/ SCHEDULE (Mw)(MW) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.60 0.00 2.50 0.00 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.30 0.30 0.60 3.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.50 0.00 2.50 0.60 0.60 0.00 2.50 0.00 2.50 0.92 3.42 0.00 2.50 0.00 0.00 5.60 5.60 2.50 2.50 2.50 2-50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.30 0.30 3.10 3.10 0.00 0.00 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 0.60 0.60 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 3.42 3.42 2.50 2.50 L6 UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR ENERGY PRODUCTION HIGH GROWTH SCENARTO ALTERNATIVE A(5)--GEOTHERMAL TOTAL FLOW SYSTEM (FIVE UNITS)DIESEL CAPACITY CAPACITY ADDITION/ ENERGY COINCIDENT GEOTHERMAL OITESEL FIRM GEOTHERMAL DIESEL ADDITION REPLACEMENT REPLACEMENT USE PEAK CAPACITY CAPACITY CAPACITY PRODUCTION PRODUCTION SCHEDULE SCHEDULE SCHEDULE (mn/yr)(Mw)(MW)(Mw)(MW)(MWh/yr )(Mwh/yr)(Mw)(MW)(MW) 13,663 5.20 0 3.9 2.5 [)13,663 0.00 0.00 0.0 16,941 6.45 ie)3.9 2.5 0 16,941 0.00 0.00 0.0 20,913 7.96 0 9.5 6.7 0 20,913 5.60 0.00 5.6 24,844 9.45 0 12.0 9.2 te)24,844 2.50 0.00 2.5 28,510 10.85 0 14.5 11.7 0 28,510 2.50 0.00 2.5 32,265 12.28 10.5 14.5 22.2 29,039 3,227 0.00 0.00 0.0 35,104 13.36 10.3 14.5 22.2 31,593 3,510 0.00 0.00 0.0 37,884 14.42 10.5 14.5 22.2 34,096 3-788 0.00 0.00 0.0 40,956 15.58 10.5 14.5 22.2 36,860 4-096 0.00 0.00 0.0 44,331 16.87 10.5 14.5 22.2 39,898 4,433 0.00 0.00 0.0 47,690 18.15 10.5 14.5 22.2 42,921 4,769 0.00 0.00 0.0 30,171 19.09 10.5 14.5 22.2 45,154 §,017 0.00 0.30 0.3 54,508 20.74 10.5 14.5 22.2 49,058 5,451 0.00 0.60 0.6 58,376 22.21 10.5 17.0 24.7 52,538 5,838 2.50 0.00 2.5 62,467 23.77 10.5 17.0 24.7 56,220 6.247 0.00 0.00 0.0 66,804 25.42 10.5 19.5 27.2 60,1'24 6.680 2.50 0.00 2.5 714417 27.18 10.5 19.5 27.2 64.276 74142 0.00 0.60 0.6 76,334 29-05 10.5 22.0 29.7 68,701 7.633 2.50 0.00 2.5 81,4622 30.98 10.5 24.5 32.2 73,280 8.142 2.50 0.00 2.5 86,885 33-06 10.5 27.0 34.7 82.782 4,103 2.50 0.92 3.4 92,765 35.30 10.5 29.5 37.2 82,782 9,983 2.50 0.00 2.5 92,765 35-30 10.5 29.5 37.2 82,782 9,983 0.00 9.00 0.0 92,765 35.30 10.5 29.5 37.2 82,782 9,983 0.00 5.60 §.6 92.765 35.30 10.5 29.5 37.2 82.782 9.983 0.00 2.50 2.5 92,765 35.30 10.5 29.5 37.2 82,782 9,983 0.00 2.50 2.5 92,765 35.30 10.5 29.5 37.2 82.782 '9,983 0.00 0.00 0.0 92,765 35.30 10.5 29.5 37.2 82,782 9,983 0.00 0.00 0.0 92,765 35.30 10.5 29.5 37.2 82,782 9,983 0.00 0.00 0.0 92,765 35.30 10.5 29.5 37.2 82,782 9,983 0.00 0.00 0.0 92,765 35.30 10.5 29.5 37.2 82.782 9,983 0.00 0.00 0.0 92,765 >35.30 10.5 29.5 37.2 82,782 9,983 '0.00 0.00 0.0 92,765 35.30 10.5 29.5 37.2 82,782 9,983 0.00 0.30 0.3 92,765 35.30 10.5 _29.5 37.2 82,782 9,983 0.00 0.60 0.6 92,765 35.30 10.5 29.5 37.2 82,782 9,983 0.00 2.50 2.5 92,765 35.30 10.5 29.5 37.2 82,782 9,983 9.00 0.00 0.0 92.765 35.30 10.5 29.5 37.2 82,782 9,983 0.00 2.50 2.5 92,765 35-30 10.5 29.5°37.2 82,782 9,983 0.00 0.60 0.6 92,765 35.30 10.5 29.5 37.2 82.782 9,983 0.00 2.50 2.5 92,765 35.30 10.5 29.5 37.2 82,782 9,983 0.00 2.50 2.5 92,765 35.30 10.5 29.5 37.2 82,782 9,983 0.00 3.42 3.4 92,765 35.30 10.5 29.5 37.2 82,782 9,983 0.00 2.50 2.5 onoooooocooocooooecoocooncooooocooecoecococoocc$no86 UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR ENERGY PROMUCTION HIGH GROWTH!SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE A(6)--GHOTHCRMAL TOTAL FLOW SYSTEM (SIX UNITS)DIESEL CAPACITY CAPACITY ADDITION/ ENFRGY COINCIDENT GEOTHERMAL DIESEL FIRM GDOTHERMAL DIESEL ADDITION REPLACEMENT REPLACEMENT USE PEAK CAPACITY CAPACITY CAPACITY PRODUCTION PRODUCTION SCHEDULE SCHEDULE SCHEDULE (MWh/yr )(mw)/(MW)(Mw)(Mw)(MWwh/yr )(Mwh/yr ):(Mw)(Mw)(Mw) 13,663 5-20 0 3.9 2.5 0 13,663 0.00 0.00 0.00 16.941 6.45 te)3.9 2.5 0 16-941 0.00 0.00 0.00 20,913 7.96 0 9.5 6.7 0 20,913 5.60 0.00 5.60 24,844 9.45 (e)12.0 9.2 (+)24,844 2.50 0.00 2.50 28,510 10.85 °14.5 11.7 t+)28,510 2.50 0.00 2.50 32,265 12.28 12.6 14.5 24.3 29,039 34227 0.00 0.00 0.00 35-104 13.36 12.6 14.5 24.3 31,593 3,510 0-00 0.00 0.00 37,884 14.42 12.6 14.5 24.3 34,096 3.788 0.00 0.00 0.00 40,956 15.58 12.6 14.5 24.3 36,860 4,096 0.00 0.00 *0.00 44,331 16.87 12.6 14.5 24.3 39,898 4.433 0.00 0.00 0.00 47,690 18.15 12.6 14.5 24.3 42,921 4,769 0.00 0.00 0.00 50,37)19.09 12.6 14.5 24.3 45,154 5,017 0.00 0.30 0.30 54,508 20.74 12.6 14.5 24.3 49,058 $5,451 0.00 0.60 0.60 38.376 22.22 12.6 14.5 24.3 52,538 5.838 .0.00 0.00 0.00 62,467 23.77 12.6 14.5 24.3 ea 6,247 0.00 0.00 0.00 66.804 25.42 12.6 17.0 26.8 60,124 6.680 2.50 0.00 2.50 71,417 27.18 12.6 19.5 29.3 64,276 77142 2.50 0.60 3.10 76,334 29.05 12.6 19.5 29.3 68,701 7.633 0.00 0.00 0.00 81,422 30.98 12.6 22.0 31.8 73,280 8,142 2.50 0.00 2.80 86.885 33.06 12.6 24.5 34.3 78,197 8.689 2.50 0.92 3.42 92.765 35.30 12.6 27.0 36.8 83,489 9,277 2.50 0.00 2.50 92,765 35.30 12.6 27.0 36.8 83,489 9,277 0.00 0.00 0.00 92,765 35.30 12.6 27.0 36.8 83,489 9-277 0.00 §.60 5.60 92,7645 35.30 12.6 27.0 36.8 83.489 9.277 0.00 2.50 2.50 92,765 35.30 12.6 27.0 36.8 83,489 9,277 0.00 2.50 2.50 92,765 35.30 12.6 27.0 36.8 83.489 9.277 0.00 0.00 0.00 92,765 35.30 12.6 27.0 36.8 83.489 9,277 0.00 0.00 0.00 92,765 35.30 12.6 27.0 36.8 83,489 9,277 0.00 0.00 0.00 92,765 35.30 12.6.27.0 36.8 83,489 9,277 0.00 0.00 0.00 92,765 35.30 12.6 27.0 36.8 83,489 9,277 0.00 0.00 0.00 92,765 35.30 12.6 27.0 36.8 83,489 9,27?0.00 0.00 0.00 92,765 35.30 12.6 27.0 36.8 83.489 9.277 0.00 0.30 0.30 92,765 35.30 12.6 27.0 36.8 83,489 9.277 0.00 0.60 0.60 92.765 35.30 12.6 27.0 36.8 83,489 9,277 0.00 0.00 0.00 92,765 35.30 12.6 27.0 36.8 83,489 9,277 0.00 0.00 0.00 92,765 35.30 12.6 27.0 36.8 83,489 9.277 0.00 2.50 2.50 92.765 35.30 12-6 27.0:36.8 83,489 9,277 0.00 3.10 +3.10 97.765 35.30 12.6 27.0°36.8 83,489 9,277 0.00 0.00 0.00 92,765 35.30 12.6 27.0 36.8 83,489 9,277 0.00 2.50 2.50 92,765 35.30 12.6 27.0 36.8 83,489 9,277 0.00 3.42 3.42 92,765 35.30 12.6 27.0 36.8 83,489 9,277 0.00 2.50 2.50 66 UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR ENERGY PRODUCTION HIGH GROWTH!SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE B(1)--GEOTIIERMAL BINARY SYSTEM (ONE UNIT),:DIESEL CAPACITY CAPACITY ADDITION/ ENERGY COINCIDENT GBOTHERMAL DIESEL FIRM GEOTHERMAL DIESEL ADDITION REPLACEMENT REPLACEMENT USE PEAK CAPACITY CAPACITY CAPACITY PRODUCTION PRODUCTION SCHEDULE SCHEDULE SCHEDULE YEAR (MWwn/yr)(Mw)(Mw)(Mw)(Mw)(MWh/yr )(Muwb/yr )(Mw)(Mw)(MW) 1985 13,663 $.20 0.0 3.9 2.5 0 13,663 0.00 0.00 0.00 1986 .16,941 6.45 0.0 3.9 2.5 CY)16,941 0.00 0.00 0.00 1987 20,913 7.96 0.0 9.5 6.7 0 20,913 5.60 0.00 5.60 1988 24,844 9.45 0.0 12.0 9.2 Qo 24,844 2.50 0.00 2.50 1989 28,510 10.85 0.0 '14.5 11.7 o 28,510 2.50 .0.00 2.50 1990 32,265 12.28 3.4 14.5 15.1 26,411 5,854 0.00 0.00 0.00 1991 35.104 13.36 3.4 14.5 15.1 26-412 8,692 0.00 0.00 0.00 1992 37,884 14.42 3.4 14.5 15.1 »26,411 11,473 0.00 0.00 0.00 1993 40,956 15.58 3.4 17.0 17.6 26,411 14,544 2.50 0.00 2.50 1994 44.331 16.87 3.4 17.0 17.6 26,411 17,920 0.00 0.00 0.00 1995 47,690 18.15 3.4 19.5 20.1 26,411 21,279 2.50 0.00 2.50 1996 50.171 19.09 3.4 19.5 20.21 26.411 23.759 9.00 0.30 0.30 1997 54,508 20.74 3.4 22.0 22.6 26-411 28,097 2.50 0.60 3.10 1998 58.376 22.21 3.4 22.0 22.6 26,41)31.964 0.00 0.00 0.00 1999 62,467 23.77 3.4 24.5 25.1 26-411 36-056 2.50 0.00 2.50 2000 66,804 25-42 3.4 27.0 27.6 26.411 40,393 2.50 0.00 2.50 2001 71,417 27.18 3.4 27.0 27.6 26,411 45,006 0.00 0.60 0.60 2002 76,334 29.05 3.4 29.5 30.1 26-411 49,923 2.50 0.00 2.50 2003 81,422 30.98 3.4 32.0 32.6 26,411)55,0211 2.50 0.00 2.50 2004 86,885 33.06 3.4 34.5 35.2 26,411 60.474 2.50 0.92 3.42 2005 92,765 35.30 3.4 37.0 37.6 26-411 66,354 2.50 0.00 2.50 2006 92.765 35.30 3.4 37.0 37.6 26,411 66,354 0.00 0.00 0.00 2007 92,765 35.30 3.4 37.0 37.6 26,411 66,354 0.00 5.60 5.60 2008 92-765 35.30 3.4 37.0 37.6 26,411 66-354 0.00 2.50 2.50 2009 92,765 35.30 3.4 37.0 37.6 26-411 66,354 0.00 2.50 2.50 2010 92.765 35.30 3.4 37.0 37.6 26,411 66,354 0.00 0.00 0.00 2011 92,765 35.30 3.4 37.0 37.6 26,411 66,354 0.00 0.00 0.00 2012 92.765 35.30 3.4 37.0 37.6 26,411 66,354 0.00 0.00 0.00 2013 92,765 35.30 3.4 37.0 37.6 26,411 66,354 0.00 2.50 2.50 2014 92,765 35.30 3.4 37.0 37.6 26,411 66,354 ,0.00 0.00 0.00 2015 92,765 35.30 3.4 37.0 37.6 26-411 66,354 0.00 2.50 2.50 2016 92,765 35.30 3.4 37.0 37.6 26,411 66,354 0.00 0.30 0.30 2017 92,765 35.30 3.4 37.0 37.6 26,411 66,354 0.00 3.10 3.10 2018 92,765 35.30 3.4 37.0 37.6 26,411 66.354 0.00 0.00 0.00 2019 92.765 35.30 3.4 37.0 37.6 26,411 66.354 0.00 2.50 2.50 2020 929765 35.30 3.4 37.0 37.6 26-411 66,354 0.00 2.50 2.50 2021 92,765 35.30 3.4 37.0 37.6 26-411 66,354 0.00 0.60 0.60 2022 92,765 35.30 3.4 37.0 37.6 °26,411 66,354 0.00 2.50 2.50 2023 92,765 35.30 3.4 37.0 37.6 26,411 66,354 0.00 2.50 2.50 2024 92,765 35.30 3.4 37.0 37.6 26-411 66,354 0.00 3.42 3.42 2025 92,765 35.30 3.4 37.0 37.6 26,411 66,354 "0.00 2.50 2.50 CGT UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR ENCRGY PRODUCTION HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE B(2)--GEOTHERMAL BINARY SYSTEM (TWO UNITS)DIESEL CAPACITY CAPACITY ADDITION/ ENEPGY COINCIDENT GEOTHERMAL DIESEL FIRM GEOTHERMAL DIESEL ADDITION REPLACEMENT REPLACEMENT USE PEAK CAPACITY CAPACITY CAPACITY PRODUCTION PRODUCTION SCHEDULE SCHEDULE SCHEDULE YEAR (MWh /yr )(mw)(Mw)(MW)(Mw)(mMvih/yr)(MWh/yr)(my)(mw)(Mw) 1985 13,663 5.20 0.0 3.9 2.5 {¢]13-663 0.00 0.00 0.00 1986 16,94)6.45 0.0 3.9 2.5 (0)16,941 0.00 0.00 0.00 1987 20,913 7.96 0.0 9.5 6.7 (+)20,913 5.60 0.00 5.60 1988 24.844 9.45 Q.0 12.0 9.2 (0)24,844 2.50 0.00 2.50 1989 28,510 10.85 0.0 14.5 11.7 0 28,510 2.50 0.00 2.50 1990 32,265 12.28 6.7 14.5 18.4 29,039 3,227 0.00 0.00 0.00 199:35,104 13.36 6.7 14.5 18.4 31,593 3,510 0.00 0.00 0.00 1992 37,884 14.42 6.7 14.5 18.4 34,096 3,788 0.00 0.00 0.00 1993 40,956 15.58 6.7 14.5 18.4 36,860 4,096 0.00 0.00 0.00 Loga 44,331 16.87 6.7 14.5 18.4 39,898 4,433 0.00 0.00 0.00 1995 47,690 18.15 6.7 14.5 18.40 42,921 4,769 0.00 0.00 0.00 1996 30,171 19.09 6.7 17.0 20.9 45.154 §,017 2.50 0.30 2.80 1997 54,508 20.74 6.7 17.0 20.9 52,823 1,686 0.00 0.60 0.60 1998 58,376 22.21 6.7 19.5 23.4 52,823 5,553 2.50 0.00 2.50 1999 62,467 23.77 6.7 22.0 25.9 52,823 9,644 2.50 0.00 2.50 2000 66,804 25.42 6.7 22.0 25.9 52-824 13,982 0.00 0.00 0.00 2001 71,41?27.18 6.7 24.5 28.4 52,823 18,595 2.50 0.60 3.10 2002 76,334 29.05 6.7 27.0 30.9 52,8623 23,511 2.50 0.00 2.50 2003 81,422 30.98 6.7 29.5 33.4 52,823 28,599 2.50 0.00 2.50 2004 86,885 33.06 6.7 29.5 33.4 52,823 34,062°0.00 0.92 0.92 2005 92,765 ”35.30 6.7 32.0 35.9 52,823 39,942 2.50 0.00 2.50 2006 92,765 35.30 6.7 32.0 35.9 52,823 39,942 0.00 0.00 0.00 2007 92,765 35.30 6.7 32.0 35.9 52,823 39,942 0.00 5.60 5.60 2Cc08 92,765 35.30 6.7 32.0 35.9 52,823 39,942 0.00 2.50 2.50 2009 92,763 35.30 6.7 32.0 35.9 52,823 39,942 0.00 2.50 2.50 2910 92,765 35.30 6.7 32.0 35.9 52,823 39,942 0.00 0.00 0.00 20t1 92,765 35.30 6.7 32.0 ©35.9 $2,823 39,942 0.00 0.00 0.00 2012 92.765 35.30 6.7 32.0 35.9 52,823 39,942 0.00 0.00 0.00 2023 92,765 35.30 6.?32.0 35.9 $2,823 39,942 0.00 0.00 0.00 27014 92,763 35.30 6.7 32.0 35.9 52,823 39.942 0.00 0.00 0.00 2025 92,765 35.30 6.7 32.0 35.9 52,823 39,942 0.00 0.00 0.00 2O16 92.765 35.30 6.7?32.0 35.9 $2,823 39,942 0.00 2.80 2.80 2917 92,765 35.30 6.7 32.0 35.9 $2,823 39,942 0.00 0.60 0.60 7018 92,765 35.30 6.7 32.0 35.9 52,823 39,942 0.00 2.50 2.50 2019 92,765 35.30 6.7 2.0 35.9 52,823 39,942 0.00 2.50 2.50 2020 92,765 35.30 6.7 32.0 35.9 52,823 39,942 0.00 0.00 0.00 202%92,765 35.30 6.7 32.0 35.9 52,823 39,942 0.00 3.10 3.10 2022 2,765 35.30 6.7 42.0 35.9 52,823 39,942 9.00 2.50 2.50 2023 92,765 35.30 6.7?32.0 35.9 52,823 39,942 0.00 2.50 2.50 2024 92,765 35.30 6.7 32.0 35.9 52,823 39.942 0.00 0.92 0.92 2025 92,765 35.30 6.7 32.0 33.9 -§2,823 39,942 0.00 2.50 2.50 ToT UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR ENCRGY PRODUCTION HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE B(3)---GEOTHIRMAL BINARY SYSTEM (THREE UNITS)DIESEL CAPACITY CAPACITY ADDITION/ ENERGY COINCIDENT GEOTHERMAL DIESEL FIRM GBHOTHERMAL DIESEL ADDITION REPLACEMENT REPLACEMENT USE PEAK CAPACITY CAPACITY CAPACITY PRODUCTION PRODUCTION SCHEDULE SCHEDULE SCHEDULE YEAR (mMun/yr)(Mw)(Mw)(MU)(Mw)(MWh/yr )(Muh /yr )(Mw)(MW)(MW) 19ES 13,663 5.20 0.0 3.9 2.5 0 13,663 0.00 0.00 0.00 1986 16,941 6.45 0.0 3.9 2.5 te)16,94)0.00 0.00 0.00 198?20,913 7.96 0.0 9.5 6.7 (¢)20,913 5.60 0.00 5.60 1988 24,844 9.45 0.0 12.0 9.2 [Y)24,844 2.50 0.00 2.50 1989 28,520 10.85 0.0 14.5 11.7 0 28,510 2.50 0.00 2-50 41990 32.265 12.28 10.0 14.5 21.7 29,039 3.227 0.00 0.00 0.00 1993 35,104 13.36 10.0 14.5 21.7 31,593 3,510 0.00 0.00 0.00 1992 37,884 14.42 10.0 14.5 -21.7 34,096 3,788 0.00 9.00 0.00 1992 40,956 15.58 10.0 14.5 21.7 36,860 4,096 0.00 0.00 0.00 2994 44,331 16.87 10.0 14.5 21.7 39,898 4,433 0.00 0.00 0.00 1995 47,690 18.15 10.0 14.5 21.7 42,921 4.769 0.00 0.00 0.00 2996 50,172 19.09 10.0 14.5 21.7 45,154 §,017 0.00 0.30 0.30 1997 54,508 20.74 10.0 14.5 21.7 49,058 $,451 0.00 0.60 0.60 1998 58,376 22.21 10.0 17.0 24.2 52,538 5,838 2.50 0.00 2.50 1999 62,467 23.77 10.0 17.0 24.2 §6,-22 6.247 0.00 0.00 0.00 2000 66,804 25.42 10.0 19.5 26.7 60,12 6,680 2.50 0.00 2.50 2001 71,417 27.18 10.0 22.0 29.2 64.276 7,142 2.50 0.60 3.10 2002 76,334 29.05 10.0 -22.0 29.2 68,701 7.633 0.00 0.00 0.00 2003 81,422 30.98 10.0 24.5 31.7 78,840 2.582 2.50 0.00 2.50 2004 86,885 33.06 20.0 27-0 34.2 78,840 8.045 2.50 0.92 3.42 2005 92,765 35.30 10.0 29.5 36.7 78,840 13,925 2.50 0.00 2.50 2006 92,765 35.30 10.0 29.5 36.7 78,840 13,925 0.00 0.00 0.00 2007 92,765 35.30 10.0 29.5 36.7 78,840 13,925 0.00 5.60 5.60 2008 92.765 35.30 10.0 29.5 36.7 78,840 13.925 0.00 2.50 2.50 2009 92,765 35.30 10.0 29.5 36.7 78,840 13-925 0.00 2.50 2.50 2010 92.765 35.30 10.0 29.5 36.7 78-840 13,925 0.00 0.00 0.00 2932 92,765 35.30 10.0 29.5 36.7 78,840 13,925 0.00 0.00 0.00 2012 92.765 35.30 10.0 29.5 36.7 78.840 13,925 0.00 0.00 0.00 2013 92,765 35.30 10.0 29.5 36.7 78,840 13,925 0.00 0.00 0.00 2014 92,765 35.30 10.0 29.5 36.7 78,840 13,925 0.00 0.00 0.00 2025 92,765 35.30 10.0 29.5 36.7 78,840 13,925 0.00 0.00 0.00 2016 92,765 35.30 10.0 29.5 36.7 78,840 13,925 0.00 0.30 0.30 2017 92,765 35.30 10.0 29.5 36.7 78,840 13,925 0.00 0.60 0.60 7018 92,765 35.30 10.0 29.5 36.7 78,840 13,925 0.00 2.50 2.50 2019 92,765 35.30 10.0 29.5 36.7 78,840 13,925 0.00 0.00 0.00 2020 92,765 35.30 10.0 29.5 36.7 78.840 13,925 0.00 2.50 2.50 202%92,765 35.30 10.0 29.5 36.7 78,840 13,925 0.00 3.10 3.10 2022 92.765 35.30 10.0 29.5 36.7 78,840 13,925 0.00 0.00 0.00 2023 92,765 35.30 10.0 29.5 36.7 78.840 13,925 0.00 2.50 2.50 2024 92,765 35.30 10.0 29.5 36.7 78,840 13,925 0.00 3.42 3-42 2025 92,765 35.30 10.0 29.5 36.7 78,840 13,925 0.00 2.50 2.50 cOT UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR CONERGY PRODUCTION HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO AUTERNATIVE B(4)--GROTHERMAL BINARY SYSTEM (FOUR UNITS) CNERGY USE (Muh /yr ) 13,663 16-941 20,913 24,844 28,510 32,265 35.104 37,884 40,956 44,331 47,690 50,171 54,508 58.376 62,467 66.804 72,417 76,334 81,422 86,885 92,765 92.765 92,765 92.763 92,765 92,765 92,765 92,765 92,765 92.765 92,765 92,765 92,7635 92,765 92,765 92,765 92,765 92,765 92,765 92,765 92.765 COINCIDENT GEOTHERMAL PEAK (Mw) 5.20 6.45 7.96 9.45 10.85 12.28 13.36 14.42 15.58 16.87 18.15 19.09 20.74 22.21 23.77 25.42 27.18 29.05 30.98 33.06 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 CAPACITY (mv) DIESEL CAPACITY (va) FIRM GBOTHERMAL CAPACITY PRODUCTION (Mw)(Mwh/yr)oooo°$o29,039 31,593 34,096 36,860 39,898 42,921 45,154 49,058 52,538 56,22060-124! 64,276 68,701 73,280 78,197 83,489 83,489 83,469 83,489 83,489 83,489 63,489 83,489 83,489 83,489 83,489 83,489 83,489 83,489 83,489 83,489 83,489 83,489 83,489 83,489 83,489 DIESEL PRODUCTION (MWh/yr ) 13,663 16,941 20,913 24,844 28,510 3,227 3,510 3,788 4,096 4,433 4.769 5,017 5,451 5,838 6,247 6,680 74142 7.633 8,142 8,689 9.277 9,277 9,277 9,277 9.277 9,277 9,277 9,277 9,277 9,277 9.277 9,277 9,277 9,277 9,277 9,277 9,277 9,277 9,277 9.277 9,277 DIESEL CAPACITY CAPACITY ADDITION/ ADDITION REPLACEMENT REPLACEMENT SCHEDULE SCHEDULE SCHEDULE (Mw)(Mw)(MW) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.60 0.00 5.60 2.50 0.00 2.50 2.50 0.00 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.30 0.30 0.00 0.60 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.50 0.00 2.50 0.00 0.60 0.60 2.50 0.00 2-50 2.50 0.00 2.50 2-50 0.92 3.42 2.50 0.00 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.60 5.60 0.00 2.50 2.50 0.00 2.50 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.30 0.30 0.00 0.60 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.50 2.50 0.00 0.60 0.60 0.00 2.50 2.50 0.00 2.50 2.50 0.00 3.42 3-42 0.00 2.50 2.50 €or UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR ENCRGY PRODUCTION : . HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO _ ALTERNATIVE C(1)--HYDROELECTRIC SYSTEM DIESEL CAPACITY CAPACITY ADDITION/ ENERGY COINCIDENT HYDROPOWER DIESEL FIRM HYDROPOWCR DIESEL ADDITION REPLACEMENT REPLACEMENT USE PEAK =CAPACITY CAPACITY CAPACITY PRODUCTION PRODUCTION SCHEDULE SCHEDULE SCHEDULE YEAR (Mun/yr)(MW)(ow)(Mw)(MW)(MWh/yr )(Mwh/yr )(MW)(Mw)(Mw) 1985 13,663 5.20 0 3.9 2.50 0 13,663 0.00 0.00 0.00 1986 16,941 6.45 (s)3.9 2.50 ()16,941 0.00 0.00 0.00 1997 20,923 7.96 (*)9.5 6.70 (s)20,913 5.60 0.00 5.60 1988 24,844 9.45 ()12.0 9.20 [)24,844 2.50 0.00 2.50 1989 28,510 10.85 0.70 14.5 12.40 3,114 25,396 2.50 0.00 2.50 1990 22,265 12.28 0.70 14.5 12.40 3,114 29,151 0.00 0.00 0.00 399)35-104 13.36 0.70 17.0 14.90 3,114 31-990 2.50 0.00 2.50 1992 37,883 14.42 0.70 17.0 14.90 "3,114 34,770 0.00 0.00 0.00 19923 40,956 15.58 0.70 19.5 17.40 3.114 37,842 2.50 0.00 2.50 1994 44.331 16.87 0.70 19.5 17.40 3.114 43,217 0.00 0.00 0.00 1995 47,690 18.15 0.70 22.0 19.90 3,114 44,576 2.50 0.00 2.50 1996 50,171 19.09 0.70 22.0 19.90 3,114 47,057 0.00 0.30 0.30 1997 54,508 20.74 0.70 24.5 22.40 3,114 51,394 2.50 0.60 3.10 1998 28,376 22.21 0.70 24.5 22.40 3,114 55,262 0.00 0.00 0.00 3999 62,467 23.77 0.70 27.0 24.90 3,114 59,353 2.50 0.00 2.50 2000 66,804 25.42 0.70 29.5 27.40 3,114 63,690 2.50 0.00 2.50 2002 71,417 27.18 0.70 (29.5 27.40 3,114 68,303 0.00 0.60 0.60 2002 76,334 29.05 0.70 32.0 29.90 3.114 73,220 2.50 0.00 2.50 7003 81,422 30.98 0.70 34.5 32.40 3,114 78,308 2.50 0.00 2.50 2004 86,885 33.06 0.70 37.0 34.90 3.114 83,771 2.50 0.92 3.42 2005 92,765 35.30 0.70 39.5 37.40 3,114 89,651 2.50 0.00 2.50 2006 92,765 35.30 0.70 39.5 37.40 3,114 89,651 0.00 0.00 :0.00 2007 92,765 35.30 0.70 39.5 37.40 3,114 89,651 0.00 5.60 5.60 2008 92.765 35.30 0.70 39.5 37.40 3,214 89,651 0.00 2.50 2.50 2009 92,765 35.30 0.70 39.5 37.40 3-114 89,651 0.00 2.50 2.50 2010 92.765 35.30 0.70 39.5 37.40 3,114 89,651 0.00 0.00 0.00 2011 92,765 35.30 0.70 39.5.37.40 3,114 89,651 0.00 2.50 2.50 2012 92,765 35.30 0.70 39.5 37.40 3,114 69,651 0.00 0.00 0.00 2013 92,765 35.30 0.70 39.5 37.40 3,114 89,651 0.00 2.50 2.50 2014 92,165 35.30 0.70 39.5 37.40 3,114 89,651 0.00 0.00 0.00 2015 92,765 35.30 0.70 39.5 37.40 3,114 89,651 0.00 2.50 2.50 2016 92,765 35.30 0.70 39.5 37.40 3-114 89,651 0.00 0.30 0.30 2017 92,765 35.30 0.70 39.5 37.40 3,114 89,651 0.00 3.10 3.10 20:8 92,765 35.30 0.70 39.5 37.40 3-114 89,651 0.00 0.00 0.00 2019 92,765 35.30 0.70 39.5 37.40 3,114 89,651 0.00 2.50 2.50 2070 92,765 35.30 0.70 39.5 37.40 3,114 89,651 0.00 2.50 2.50 2021 92,765 35.30 0.70 39.5 37.40 3-114 89,651 0.00 0.60 0.60 2022 92,763 35.30 0.70 39.5 37.40 3,114 89,651 0.00 2.50 2.50 2023 92,765 35.30 0.70 39.5 37.40 3,114 89,651 0.00 2.50 2.50 2024 92,765 35.30 0.70 =.39.5 37.40 3,114 89-651 0.00 3.42 3.42 2025 92,763 35.30 0.70 39.5 37.40 3,114 89,651 0.00 2.50 2.50 vOT YEER 1985 1986 1987 L986 1999 2999 199) 992 1993 1994 399% 2996 1997 1998 1999 20C0 2001 2007 2003 2004 2095 2006 20907 2008 2209 2910 20i) 29032 207% PAY4a 202% 2016 2017 2018 2019 2920 202} 2022 2023 2924 IOISaveD ENERGY USE (mh/yr) 13,663 16,94) 20,933 24,R844 28,3510 32,265 35,104 327,884 40,956 44,331 47,690 30,171 54,508 58,376 62,467 66,804 71,417 76.334 81,422 86,885 92,765 92,765 92,765 92,765 92.765 92.765 92,765 92,765 92.765 92,765 92,765 92,765 92,7645 92,765 92,765 97,765 92,765 92,765 92.7965 92,765 92,765 COINCIDENT HYDROPOWER PEAK (MW) 5.20 6.45 7.96 9.45 10.85 12.28 13.36 14.42 15.58 16.87 18.15 19.09 20.74 22.21 23.77 25.42 27.18 29.05 30.98 33.06 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 35.30 o8eeeeeNUNNNAPNONAAAAAAAADAAOOSOSoooocooooco.NFnUUTUNOUVHUVUUNRTUUUNUUNUUUUNOUOOUOSOUDOUNODOOUOUOSUNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR ENERGY PRODUCTION HIGH GROWTH SCENLRTO ALTERNATIVE C(2)--HYDROELECTRIC SYSTEM FIRM HYDROPOWER (Mw) 2.50 2.50 6.70 9.20 311.96 14.46 14.46 14.46 16.96 16.96 19.46 19.46 21.96 24.46 24.46 26.96 29.46 29.46 31.96 34.46 36.96 36.96 36.96 36.96 36.96 36.96 36.96 36.96 36.96 36.96 36.96 36.96 36.96 36.96 36.96 36.96 36.96 36.96 36.96 36.96 36.96 CAPACITY PRODUCTION (Mwh/yr)900002.174 2,174 2,174 2.174 2.174 2,174 2,174 2.174 2.174 2,174 2.1742,174 2,174 2,174 2,174 2,174 2,174 2.174 2,174 2.174 2-174 2,174 2,174 2.174 2.174 2,174 25174 2,174 2,174 2.174 2,174 2,174 2,174 2.174 2,174 2.174 2.174 DIESEL PRODUCTION (Mwh/yr) 13,663 16,941 20,913 24,844 26,336 30,091 32,930 35,710 38,782 42,157 45,516 47,997 52,334 56,202 60,293 64.630 69,243 74,160 79,248 84,711 90,591 90,59) 90,591 90,591 90,591 90,591 90,591 90,591 90-591 90,591] 90,591 90,591 90,591 90,591 90-59] 90-591 90,591 90-591 90,591 90,591 90,591 CAPACITY (MW) 0.00 0.00 5.60 2.50 2.50 2.50 0.00 0.00 2.50 0.00 2.50 0.00 2.50 2.50 0.00 2.50 2.50 -0.00 2.50 2.50 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 CAPACITY ADDITION/ ADDITION REPLACEMENT REPLACEMENT SCHEDULE SOTWeyoruourwMmouMoouwruuUnoowdonmooonwoocdosco0odcdca0090Onooogooooocooeocooooocooeoonocoooocooooocoococooocoscseo8©©©©©©©©©©©@@NWNOWNONWONONODONNNUTCOCOCOCoC0Coeoooecaooceooooood UNALASKA/DUTCH H®ARPOR ENCRGY PRODUCTION HIGH GROWTH SCENARTO ALTERNATIVE C(3)--HYDROELECTRIC SYSTEM DIESEL CAPACITY CAPACITY ADDITION/ ENERGY COINCIDENT HYDROPOWER DIESE.FIRM HYDROPOWER DIESEL ADDITION REPLACEMENT REPLACEMENT USE PEAK CAPACITY CAPACITY CAPACITY PRODUCTION PRODUCTION SCHEDULE SCHEDULE SCHEDULE YEAR (MWh/yr )(Mw)(Mw)(Mw)(MW)(MWh/yr )(MWh/yr )(Mw)(Mw)(mw) 1985 13,663 5.20 0 3.9 2.50 (')13,663 0.00 0.00 0.00 1986 16,941 6.45 0 3.9 2.50 0 16,941 0.00 0.00 0.00 1987 20,913 7.96 i?)9.5 6.70 0 20,913 5.60 0.00 5.60 1988 24,844 9.45 (0)12.0 9.20 (°)24,844 2.50 0.00 2.50 1989 28,510 10.85 0.96 14.5 12.66 5,288 23,222 2.50 0.00 2.50 1990 32,265 12.28 0.96 14.5 12.66 5,288 26,977 0.00 0.00 0.00 1939)35,104 13.36 0.96 17.0 15.16 5,288 29,816 2.50 0.00 2.50 1993 37,884 14.42 0.96 17.0 15.16 5,288 .32,596 0.00 0.00 0.00 1993 40,956 15.58 0.96 19.5 17.66 5,288 35,668 2.50 0.00 2.50 1994 44,331 16.87 0.96 19.5 17.66 5,288 39,043 9.00 0.00 0.00 1995 47,699 18.15 0.96 22.0 20.16 5,288 42,402 2.50 0.00 2.50 19968 39,272 19.09 0.96 22.0 20.16 5,288 44,883 0.00 0.30 0.30 1499?54,998 20.74 0.96 24.5 22.66 5,288 -49,220 2.50 0.60 3.10 ager 58,376 22.21 0.96 24.5 22.66 5,288 53,088 0.00 0.00 0.00 2999 62.467 23.779 0.96 27.0 25.16 5,288 57,179 2.50 0.00 2.50 7000 66,804 25.42 0.96 29.5 27.66 5,288 61,516 2.50 0.00 2.50 2001 7-417 27.18 0.96 29.5 27.66 5,288 66,129 0.00 0.60 0.60 2902 76,334 29.05 0.96 32.0 30.16 5,288 71,046 2.50 0.00 2.50 2993 BL,422 30.98 0.96 34.5 32.66 5,288 76,134 2.50 0.00 2.50 2006 86,885 33.06 0.96 37.0 35.16 5,268 81,597 2.50 0.92 3.42 20s 92,765 35.30 0.96 39.5 37.66 5,288 87,477 2.50 0.00 2.50 2006 92,765 35.30 0.96 39.5 37.66 5,288 87,477 0.00 0.00 0.00 2007 92,765 35.30 0.96 39.5 37.66 5,288 87,477 0.00 5.60 5.60 2008 92,765 35.30 0.96 39.5 37.66 5,288 87,477 0.00 2.50 2.50 2909 92,765 35.30 0.96 39.5 37.66 5,288 87477 0.00 2.50 2.50 7010 92,765 35.30 0.96 39.5 37.66 5,288 87.477 0.00 0.00 0.00 2011 92.765 35.30 0.96 39.5 37.66 5,288 87.477 0.00 2.50 2-50 2012 92,765 35.30 0.96 39.5 37.66 5,288 87-477 0.00 0.00 0.00 2023 92,765 35.30 0.96 39.5 37.66 5,288 87,477 0.00 2.50 2.50 2014 92.765 35.30 0.96 39.5 37.66 5,288 87,477 0.00 0.00 0.00 2015 92,765 35.30 0.96 39.5 37.66 5,288 87,477"0.00 2.50 2.50 2016 92,765 35.30 0.96 39.5 37.66 5,288 87,477 0.00 0.30 0.30 2017 92,765 35.30 0.96 39.5 37.66 5,288 87,477 0.00 3.10 3.10 2018 92,763 35.30 0.96 39.5 37.66 5,288 87,477 0.00 0.00 0.00 2019 92,765 35.30 0.96 39.5 37.66 5,288 87,477 0.00 2.50 2.50 2020 92,765 35.30 0.96 39.5 37.66 5,288 87,477 0.60 2.50 2.50 2021 $2,765 35.30.0.96 39.5 37.66 5,288 87,477 0.00 0.60 0.60 2022 92,765 35.30 0.96 39.5 37.66 5,288 87,477 0.00 2.50 2.50 2023 92,765 35.30 0.96 39.5 37.66 5,288 87,477 0.00 2.50 2.50 7024 92,763 35.30 0.96 29.5 37.66 5,288 87,477 0.00 3.42 3.42 2025 92,765 35.30 0.96 39.5 37.66 5,288 87,477 0.00 2.50 2.50 90T 1 PENDIX C Annual Costs and Economic Analyses of Power System Plans APPENDIX C SUMMARY TABLE NET PRESENT VALUES OF BASE CASE AND ALTERNATIVES ($1,000) GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVES SIZE (MW)LOW MODERATE HIGH BASE CASE (DIESEL)AS REQUIRED 79,852 97 ,293 165 ,819 (1)2.10 82,481 100 ,138 168 ,321 A (2)4.20 | 72,901 77,837 144,204 TOTAL FLOW (3)6.30 75 ,668 80,031 124,671 GEOTHERMAL (4)8.40 78,435 82,798 110,447 SYSTEMS (5)10.50 81,202 85 ,565 98,919 (6)12.60 83,969 88 ,332 100 ,034 B (1)3.35 75 ,503 90,315 159,301 BINARY (2)6.70 85 ,965 90,328 131,434 GEOTHERMAL (3)10.05 95 ,265 99 ,628 115 ,829 SYSTEMS (4)13.40 104 ,563 108,926 120 ,556 C (1).70 (SHAISHNIKOF)80,119 96,484 165 ,839 HYDROPOWER (2).26 (PYRAMID)78,201 95,518 164 ,080 SYSTEMS (3).95 (BOTH)77,733 94,011 153,4523RAINa2Ra LOT UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS LOW GROWTH SCENARIO RIESEL PRODUCTION (Mwh/yr) 13,663 15,152 16,632 18,162 19,455 270,750 22,04? 23,346 24,648 23,952 27,259 27,385 27,513 27,644 27,778 27,914 28,053 28,194 28,339 28,486 28,637 26,637 28.637 78.637 28,637 28,637 28,637 28,637 28,637 28.637 28,637 28,637 28,637 28.637 28,637 28,637? 28,637 28,637 28,637 78.63? 22,637 FUEL USE (1000 gal) 1,139 1,263 1,388 1,514 1-621 1.729 1,837 1,946 2,054 2-163 2,272 2,282 2,293 2.304 2-315 2-326 2,338 2.350 2-362 2.374 2-386 2.386 2s 386 2,386 2,386 2.386 2,386 2,386 2-386 2,386 2,386 2.386 2.386 2.386 2,386 2,386 2-386 2,386 2,386 2.386 2,386 FUEL PRICE ($/gal) 0.876 0.841 0.841 0.841 0.858 0.875 0.892 0.910 0.928 0.947 0.966 0.985 1.005 1.025 1.046 1.067 2.088 1.110 1.132 1.154 1.178 1-178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 *1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 BAST CASE FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT COST SCHEDULE ($1000) 997 1,062 1,167 1,273 1,391 1,513 1,640 1,771 1,907 2,048 2,194 2.249 2-304 2,362 2-420 2,481 '2,543 2.607 2-673 2,741 2,810 2,810 2,810 2.810 2,810 2,810 2,810 2,810 2,810 2.810 2,810 2.810 2,810 2,810 2,810 2,810 2,810 2,810 2,810 2.810 2,810 (Mw) 0.00 0.00 5.60 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.30 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.60 9.00 0.00 0.92 0.00 0.00 5.60 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.30 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.92 0.00 cosT ($1000) O&M cost ($1000) 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 NPV: TOTAL SYSTEM COST ($1000) 2,009 5,994 3-929 2,285 2-403 2-525 2-652 4,533 2,919 3,060 3,416 3.681 34316 3,374 3,432 3.913 3,555 3,619 4,329 3,753 3,822 72742 5-572 3,822 3,822 3.822 3,822 5.572 3,822 3,822 4,032 4.242 3,822 3,822 3,822 4,242 3,822 3,822 4,466 3,822 3,822 (2,214) $79,852 80T- YEAR 1935 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 200? 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20¢9 2010 2012 2022 2013 7014 2015 2016 2017 2038 2019 2020 2022 2022 2023 7024 2025 UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS LOW GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE A(1)--GEOTHERMAL TOTAL FLOW SYSTEM (ONE UNIT) GEOTHERMAL COMPONENT DIESEL COMPONENT GBHOTHERMAL PRODUCTION (Min /yr )oooo$9d16,556 16,556 16,556 16,556 16,556 16,556 16,556 16,556 16,556 16,556 16,5536 16,556 16,556 16,556 16.556 16,556 16,556 16,556 16,556 16,5536 16.5536 16,556 16.556 16,556 36,556 16,556 26,556 26,556 16,556 16,556 16.556 16,556 16,556 16,556 16,556 16,556 CONSTRUCTION COsTS ($1000)eooco0o00000c0000c00C0CcCeoeocoocooocooocooocoeocooo0oosDIESEL PRODUCTION (mMvin/yr ) 13,663 15,152 16,652 18,162 19,455 4.193 5,491 6,790 8,092 9,396 10,702 10,828 10,957 11,088 11,221 11,357 11,496 11,638 11,783 11,930 12,080 12,080 12,080 12,080 12,080 12,080 12,080 12,080 12,080 12,080 12,080 12,080 12,080 12,080 12,080 12,080 12,080 12,080 12,080 12,080 12,080 FUEL USE (1000 gal) 1/139 1,263 1,388 1,524 1,621 349 4s8 566 674 783 892 902 913 924 935 946 958 970 982 994 1,007 1,007 1,007 1,007 1,007 1,007 1,007 1,007 1,007 1,007 1,007 1,007 1,007 1,007 1,007 1,007 1,007 1,007 1,007 1,007 1,007 FUEL PRICE ($/gal) 0.876 0.841 0.841 0.841 0.858 0.875 0.892 0.910 0.928 0.947 0.966 0.985 1.005 1.025 1.046 1.067 1.088 1.110 1.132 1.154 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.278 1.178 1.278 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.378 1.178 FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT cOsT SCHEDULE ($1000) 997 1,062 1,167 1,273 1,391 306 408 $15 626 742 862 889 918 947 - 978 1,009 1,042 1,076 lll 1,148 1,185 1,185 1,185 1,185 1,185 1,385 1,185 7,185 1,185 1,185 1,185 1,185 1,185 1,285 1,185 1,385 1,185 1,185 1,185 1,185 1,185 (Mw) 0.00 0.00 5.60 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.30 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.92 0.00 0.00 5.60 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.30 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.92 0.00 CcosT ($1000) (1,602) COST ($1000) 997 4,982 2,917 1.273 1,391 306 408 §15 626 742 1,072 1,309 918 947 978 1,429 1,042 1,076 1,755 1,148 1,185 5,105 2,935 1,185 1,185 3,185 1,185 1,185 1-185 1,185 1,395 1,605 1,185 1,185 1,185 1,605 1,185 1,185 1,829 1,185 1,185 (1,602) TOTAL O&M COsT ($1000) 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1.275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1.275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1.275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1-275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 NPV: TOTAL SYSTEM cost ($1000) 2,009 11,562 11,383 5,233 15,260 1,581 1,683 1,790 1,901 2-017 2,347 2.584 2,193 26222 2.253 2,704 2,317 2,351 3,030 2,423 2-460 6,380 4,210 2.460 2-460 2,460 2,460 2,460 2,460 2,460 2-670 2.880 2,460 2,460 2,460 2,880 2,460 2,460 3,104 2.460 2-460 (1,602) $82,481 60T YEAR 1985 2926 1987 1988 1929 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 2996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2002 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2030 2012 POL2 2013 7014 2015 7016 2007 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS LOW GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE A(2)--GBROTHERMAL TOTAL FLOW SYSTEM (TWO UNITS) GROTHERMAL COMPONENT DIESEL COMPONENT GEOTHERMAL CONSTRUCTION PRODUCTION (rMin/yr)ooo°o;$9o18,675 19,842 22,012 22,183 23,357 24,533 74,646 24,762 24,880 25,000 25,122 25,247 25,375 25,505 25,638 25,773 25.773 25.773 235,773 25,773 25.773 25,773 25.773 23,773 25,773 25,773 23,773 25,773 25,773 23,773 25,773 0773 32773 773 3.4773 7773NhatebtuwouutWwwn COSTS ($1000) QO 5,568 7,832 4,536 14,095 eoocooocoooooscoocoo9goococcooocoocooocoocoeooco0°o°cosoDIESFIL -PRODUCTION (Muih/yr) 13,663 15,152 16,652 18,162 19,435 2,075 2-205 2.335 2,465 2,595 2,726 2,738 2,751 2.764 2.778 2-791 2,805 2-819 2,834 2-849 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2.864 2,864 FUEL USE (1000 gal) 1,139 1,263 1,388 1,514 1,621 173 184 195 205 216 227 228 229 230 232 233 234 235 236 237 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 FUEL PRICE ($/gal) 0.876 0.841 0.842 0.841 0.858 0.875 0.892 0.910 0.928 0.947 0.966 0.985 1.005 1.025 1.046 1.067 1.088 1.110 1.132 1.154 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 2.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 3.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT COST SCHEDULE ($1000) 997 1,062 1,167 1,273 1,391 181 164 177 191 205 219 228 230 236 "242 248 254 261 267 274 281 281 281 281 281 281 281 281 281 281 281 281 281 281 281 281 281 281 281 28) 281-eoooogcoeooCOOCOCOOOCOOONMOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOONWoSo.Pyowoomooomvodcocoooeovrangogowooanaoocawooosooocovngosd(MW).«©@©©©©¢©©©©*866OnococooCoeoeocoeocoecooonooooooeocoeococcesaeooeooo°oo.ooooooocoooanNeoo(1,602) TOTAL cost ($1000) 997 4,982 2.917 2-273 1,391 181 164 177 191 205 429 645 230 236 242 668 254 261 gil 274 281 4,201 2,031 281 281 281 281 281 281 281 a9. 701 281 281 281 702 281 281 925 281 2821 (1,602) TOTAL O&M COST ($1000) 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1-275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1.275 "1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 NPV: TOTAL. SYSTEM cost ($1000) 2,009 11,562 11,761 6,82) 16,498 1,426 1,439 1,452 1,466 1,480 1,704 1,920 1,505 1,511 1,517 1,943 1,529 1,536 2,186 1,549 1,556 5.476 3,306 1,556 1,556 1,556 1,556 1,556 1,556 1,556 1,766 1,976 1,556 1,556 1,556 1.976 1,556 1,556 2,200 1,556 1,556 (1,602) $72,901 OTT YEAR 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 L996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2903 2994 2005 2996 200? 2908 2009 2010 2012 7012 2013 2914 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 7020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2023 UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS LOW GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE A(3)---GHOTIHERMAL TOTAL FLOW SYSTEM (THREE UNITS) GROTRERMAL COMPONENT GEOTHERMAL CONSTRUCTION PRONUCTICN (muh/yr)oooo0°o18,675 19,842 21,012 22,183 23,357 24,533 24,646 24,762 24,880 235,000 23.222 252247 25,3758 25,505 25.638 23,773 25,773 25,773 25,773 25,773 25.773 23,773 25,773 23,773 25.773 23,773 23,773 25.773 25,773 25,773 23,773 23,773 25,773 25,773 25.773 25,773 COSTS ($1000) 0 5,568 8,210 6,124 15,333 0 ooooooooooeocoocoeocoocoocoococoeoecoecoocoooeooceosoDIESEL PRODUCTION (MWh/yr} 13,663 15-152 16-652 18,162 19,455 2,075 2,205 2-335 2,465 2.595 2,726 2,738 2,751 2.764 2,778 2.791 2,805 2,819 2,834 2,849 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2.864 2,864 2.864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2.864 2,864 DIESEL COMPONENT FUEL USE (1000 gal) 1-139 1,263 1,388 1,514 1,621 173 184 195 205 216 227 228 229 230 231 233 234 235 236 237 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 FUEL PRICE ($/gal) 0.876 0.841 0.841 0.842 0.858 0.875 0.892 0.910 0.928 0.947 0.966 0.985 1.005 1.025 1.046 1.067 1.088 1.210 1.132 1.154 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT COST SCHEDULE ($1000) 997 1,062 1,167 1,273 1,391 151 164 177 191 205 219 225 230 236 da2 248 254 261 267 274 281 281 281 282 281 281 281 28) 281 281 281 281 281 281 281 281 281 281 281 281 281 (Mw) 0.00 0.00 5.60 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 e8©8©©©weeeeo8e©©©©88eoooocooocoocooecooocoocoonvoooo0dcse.evoomoooanvuccooooovaoouwusconOnoooogOCOCOCOCOCOOOOOOSCONOCOOcost ($1000) i!) 1,750 644 i) 0 (1,602) TOTAL COST ($1000) 997 4.982 2,917 1,273 1,391 i151 164 177 191 205 429 645 230 236 242 668 254 262 911 274 281 4,201 2,031 281 281 281 281 281 281 281 491 701 281 281 281 701 281 281 925 281 281 (1,602) TOTAL O&M cost ($1000) 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1.275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,278 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 NPV: TOTAL SYSTEM COST ($1000) 2,009 11,562 12,139 8-409 17,736 1,426 1,439 1,452 1,466 1,480 1,704 1,920 1,505 1,511 1,517 1,943 1,529 1,536 2,186 1,549 1,556 5.476 3,306 1,556 1,556 1,556 1,556 1,556 1,556 1,556 1,766 1,976 1,556 1,556 1,556 1,976 1,556 1,556 27200 1,556 1.556 (1,602) $75,668 IIl YES 1985 1985 3487 2988 19e9 1999 399) 492 199% 994 2995 1996 1999 "9938 1999 2000. raten! 2coe? 2003 7004 2905 2006 200? 2908 20909 29:0 POLS ars 33SJiyNfsteie630DoreowbtoeOoUNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS LOW GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE A(4)--GEOTHERMAL TOTAL FLOW SYSTEM (FOUR UNITS) GDOTHERMAL COMPONENT DIESEL COMPONENT 21,012 22,182 23,257 24,533 24,646 74,762 24,880 25,000 25,122 25-247 25-375 23,505 23,638 23,773 25,773 23,773 23.773 23,773 25.773 25,773 23.773 23,773 25,773 25,773 25,773 25-773 23.773 25,773 23,773 23,773 75-4773 23,773 25.773 25,773 CONSTRUCTION COSTS ($1000)gooooccocooo0co0coocoococoeocooococo0oceoocgoc0o0o0coooDICSEL PRODUCTION (MVIh/yr) 13,663 15,152 16,632 18.162 19,455 2,075 2,205 2.335 2,465 2.595 2,726 2,738 2-751 2,764 2-778 2,791 2,805 2,819 2,834 2,849 2,864 2-864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2.864 2,864 2,BE4 2°BH4 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 FUEL USE (1000 gal) 1,139 1,263 1,388 1,514 1,623 173 184 195 205 216 227 228 229 230 231 233 234 235 236 237 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 FUEL. PRICE ($/gal) 0-876 0.841 0.84) 0.841 0.858 0.875 0.892 0.910 0.928 0.947 0.966 0.985 1.005 1.025 1.046 1.06? 1.088 1.110 1.132 1.154 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1-178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT COST SCHEDULE ($1000) 997 1,062 1,167 1,273 1,391 152 164 177 191 205 219 225 230 36 42 248 254 261 267 274 281 281 281 281 281 281 281 281 281 281 281 281 781 281 281 281 281 28) 281 281 281 (Mw) 0.00 0.00 5.60 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.30 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.92 0.00 0.00 5.60 2.50° 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.30 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.92 0.06 COST ($1000) 0 3,920 1,750 oo(1,602) TOTAL cost ($1000) 997 4,982 2,917 1,273 2,391 151 164 177 191 205 429 645 230 236 242 668 254 261 911 274 281 4,201 2-031 281 281 281 281 281 281 281 491 701 281 281 281 701 281 281 925 281 281 (1,602) TOTAL COST ($1000) 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1.275 1,275 1,275 1,278 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,278 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 NPV: TOTAL SYSTEM COsT ($1000) 2,009 11,562 12,517 9,997 18,974 1,426 1,439 1,452 1,466 1,480 1-704 1-920 1.505 1-511 1,517 1,943 1,529 1,536 2,186 1,549 1,556 5-476 3,306 1-556 1,556 1,556 1,556 1,556 1,556 1,556 1,766 1,976 1,556 1,556 1,556 1.976 1,556 1.556 2.200 1.556 1,556 (1,602) $78,435 cll YEAR 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 19g L992 199% 2994 1995 1996 3997 5998 i999 2009 2Cok age nec? 2004 PO08 2096 2009 DIOR 2009 2OuC 2032 2912 2013 OiO3gaGEOTRERMAL COMPONENT UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR COWER SYSTEM PLAN AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS LOW GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE AtS)--GECTHERMAL TOTAL FLOW SYSTEM (FIVE DIESEL COMPONENT UNITS) GEOTHERMAL PRODUCTION (mvih/yr)ooooo18,675 19,842 21,022 22,183 23,357 JwoulOYawNIPeOD>OotftuntsOoutattay'SDAINfoSoSOATesteeeinemee|ee)sosossmdoOND23,773 25,773 25.773 PA,773 25,773 25,773 CONSTRUCTION COSTS ($1000) 0 5,568 8,966 9,300 17,809 te)ocogoooconoooocooo0oococecoocoo00coocococoocdococo0codceoDIESEL PRODUCTION (Mwh/yr ) 13,663 15,152 16,652 18.162 19,455 2,075 2,205 2,335 2.465 2,595 2,726 2-738 2,752) 2,764 2,778 2.791 2,803 2,819 2,834 2,849 2,864 2.864 2,864 2,864 2,864 7,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2-864 2,864 2,864 2,864 2.864 2,866 2,864 2,R64 FUEL USE (1000 gal) 1-139 1,263 1,388 1,514 1,621 173 184 195 205 216 22? 228 229 230 231 233 234 235 236 237 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 239 FUEL PRICE ($/gal) 0.876 0.841 0.841 0.841 0.858 0.875 0.892 9.910 0.928 0.947 0.966 0.985 1.005 2.025 1.046 1.067 1.088 21.120 2-132 1.154 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT COST SCHEDULE ($1000) 997 1,062 1,167 1,273 1,391 151 164 177 191 205 219 225 230 236 242 248 254 261 267 274 281 281 281 281 281 281 281 281 281 281 281 281 281 281 281 281 281 281 282 281 281 (Mw) 0.00 0.00 5.60 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.30 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.92 0.00 onogooooooo0eooeseodse-eooo0ocoecocooo0ooo0oso..ewoonoooavocoocdssdCOST ($1000) (y 3-920 1,750 eooocoo(1,602) TOTAL COST ($1000) 997 4,982 2,917 '1,273 1,391 151 164 177? 191 205 429 645 230 236 242 668 254 261 911 274 281 4,201 2,031 281 281 261 281 281 281 281 491 701 281 281 281 701 281 281 925 281 281 (1,602) TOTAL O&M COST ($1000) 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 NPV: TOTAL SYSTEM cost ($1000) 2,009 11,562 12,895 11,585 20,212 1,426 1,439 1,452 1,466 1,480 1,704 1,920 1,505 1,511 1,517 1,943 1,529 1,536 2,186 1,549 1,556 5,476 3,306 1,556 1,556 1,556 1,556 1,556 1,556 1,556 1,766 1.976 1,556 1,556 1,556 1,976 1,556 1,556 2,200 1,556 1,556 (1,602) $81,202 ett qosfools)UNALASKS/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS xt GROWTH SCENARTO . ALTERN TIVE A(6)--GHOTHERMAL TOTAL FLOW SYSTEM (SIX UNITS) GEOTHERMAL,COMPONENT DIESEL COMPONENT te ener eee eres meee a eon oe TOTAL TOTAL GEOTHERMAL CONSTRUCTION DIESEL FUEL FUEL FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT TOTAL O&M SYSTEM PROOUCTION COSTS PRODUCTION USE PRICE COST SCHEDULE cost COST cOsT COST iMunysyr)($1000)(Mwn/yr)(1000 gat)($/gal)($1000)(Mw)($1000)($1000)($1000)($1000) 0 0 13,663 1,139 0.876 997 0.00 0 997 1,012 2,009 ")5,568 15,152 1.263 0.842 1,062 0.00 3.920 4,982 1,012 11,562 0 9,344 16,652 1,388 0.841 1,167 5.60 14750 =-2,917 1,012:13,273 0 10,888 18,162 1,514 0.841 1,273 2-50.0 1-273 1,012 13,173 0 19,047 19,455 1,621 0.858 1,392 0.00 ©1,391 1-012 21,450 18.675 ry 2,075 173°«0.875 151 0.00 )151014275,426 19,842 0 2,205 184 0.892 164 0.00 0 164 -1,275,-s1.,439 72,012 +)2,335 195 =0.910 177 0.00 )177-4275,1,452 22,183 )2,465 205 0.928 191 0.00 )191 1/275 1,466 23,357 0 2,595 216 =0.947 '205 0.00 +)205 1,275 1,480 24,533 )2.726 227,0.966 219 0.00 210 429 1,275,704 24,646 +)2,738 228 =0.985 225 0.30 420 645 1,275 1,920 24,762 0 2,751 229 1.005 230 0.60 1)230,0«1,275-1,505 24,880 0 2.764 230 =:11.025 236 0.00 0 236 0«-1,275-s 1,521 25,000 )2,778 231 =-:1.046 142 0.00 0 242.«1,275 2537 25,122 0 2-791 233.067 248 0.00 420 668 1,275 1,943 25,247 0 2,805 234 =1.088 254 0.60 0)254 «1-275 1,529 25.375 (0)2,819 235 1.110 261 0.00 i8)261 1,275 1,536 25,505 3)2,834 236 =-:1.132 267 0.00 644 911 «1,275 2186 25,638 0 2,849 237 -1.154 274 0.92 )274 «14275549 25,773 0 2,864 239-«21.178 281 0.00 0 281 1,275 1,556 25,773 0 2,864 239 =«1.178 281 0.00 3.920 4,201 1,275 5,476 23,773 0 2,864 2392 1.178 281 5.60 1,750 2-031 1,275 3,306 25,773 )2,864 239°-s«1.278 281 2.50 1)281 1,275 1,556 33,773 0 2,864 239°«1,178 281 0.00 0 281 1-275 1,556 25,773 0 2,864 239°-s«1.178 281 0.00 )281 1,275 1,556 25,773 0 2,864 239°«1.178 281 0.00 )281 1,275 1,556 23,773 0 2,884 239 -«1.178 281 0.00 7)281 1.275 =:1,556 25,773 )2,864 239°«1.178 281 0.00 )281 «1,275 =556 23.773 ")2,864 239°00«1.178 281 0.00 1)281 1,275 1,556 25,773 0 2,864 239°«1.178 281 0.00 210 491 1,275 1,766 25.773 0 2,864 239 «1.178 281 0.30 420 701 «1,275 1,976 23,773 0 2,864 239 =-s-11.178 281 0.60 0 281 1,275 1,556 25,773 +)2,864 2391.78 281 0.00 1)281 41,275 1,536 25,773 0 2,864 239°«1.178 281 0.00 1)281 «1,275 1,556 23,773 0 2,864 239 «1.178 281 0.00 420 701 1-275 1-976 25,773 )2,864 239 «1.178 281 0.60 +)281 1.275 1,556 25,773 ry 2,864 2391.78 281 0.00 0)281 1,275 1,556 25,773 0 2,864 239 =-«1.178 281 0.00 644 925 1,275 2,200 23.773 )2.864 239 =«1.178 281 0.92 0 281 1,275 1,556 25,773 )2,864 2391.78 281 0.00 )281 1,275 1,556 (1,602)(1,602)(1,602) NPV:$83,969 vit YER 1985 1986 198? 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 i996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 7002 2003" 2004 2005 2006 200? 2008 20UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS LOW GROWTH SCENARIO GROTHERMAL COMPONENT GEOTHERMAL PRODUCTION (Mun/yr) 23.357 26,41) "6-411 26,411 26,431 26,411 26,411 26,411 26,411 26,411 26,411 26,411 26.411 26,411 26,411 26,411 26,41) 26,411. 26,411 26,41) 76,411 26-411 26,411 26,412 26.411 26-411 26,411 76,432 26,47) 26,411 26.411) 26,411 CONSTRUCTION COSTS ($1000) fe) 5,568 8,398 6,913 15,501 0 oo0oooo0oco0oacocooocooceoocooo0ooooo0oococeooo°oALTERNATIVE B(1)--GEOTHERMAL BINARY SYSTEM (ONE UNIT) DIESEL COMPONENT DIESEL PRODUCTION (Muh/yr) 13,663 15,152 16,652 18,162 19,455 2,075 2,205 2,335 2,465 2,595 847 973 1,102 1,233 1,366 1,502 1,641 1,783 1,928 2,075 2,225 2,225 2,225 2,225 2,225 2.225 2,225 2,225 2,223 2,225 2,225 2,225 2,223 2.225 2,225 2,725 2,225 2,225 2,225 2,225 2,225 FUEL USE (1000 gal) 1,139 1,263 1,388 1,514 1,621 173 FUEL PRICE ($/gal) 0.876 0.841 0.84) 0.841 0.858- 0.875 0.892 0.910 0.928 0.947 0.966 0.985 1.005 1.025 1.046 1.067 1.088 1.110 1.132 1.154 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 FUEL,ADDITION/REPLACEMENT COST SCHEDULE ($1000) 997 1,062 1,167 1.273 1-391 151 164 (Mw) 0.00 0.00 5.60 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.30 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.92 0.00 0.00 5.60 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 9.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.30 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.92 0.00 cosT ($1000) 0 3-920 1,750 eooo0oo0o0o0d(1,602) TOTAL COsT ($1000) 997 4,982 2,917 1,273 2,391 151 164 177 192 205 278 500 92 105 119 554 149 165 826 200 218 4,138 1,968 218 218 218 218 218 218 218 428 638 218 218 218 638 218 218 862 218 218 (1,602) TOTAL O&M COST ($1000) 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1.275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 TOTAL SYSTEM cost ($1000) 2,009 11,562 12,327 9.198 17,904 1,426 1,439 1,452 1,466 1,480 1,553 1,775 1,367 1,380 1,394 1,829 1,424 1,440 2,101 1,475 1,493 5,413 3,243 1,493 1,493 1,493 1,493 1,493 1,493 1,493 1,703 1,913 1,493 1,493 1,493 1,913 1,493 1,493 2,13) 1,493 1,493 (1,602) $75,503 STT UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS LOW GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE B(2)--GEOTHERMAL BINARY SYSTEM (TWO UNITS) GEOTHERMAL COMPONENT DIESEL COMPONENT a ee neta cnn naeies matmeeemetmen aeacte teen .TOTAL TOTAL GEOTHERMAL CONSTRUCTION DIESEL FUEL FUEL FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT TOTAL O&M SYSTEM PRODUCTION COSTS PRODUCTION USE PRICE COST SCHEDULE COST COST cosT cost YES?(uIs/yr)($1000)(MWh/yr)(3000 gal)($/gal)($1000)(Mw)($1000)($1000)($1000)($1000) 1985 Cy)0 13,663 1,139 0.876 997 0.00 0 997 1,012 2,009 1986 9 3,568 15,152 1,263 0.841 1,062 0.00 3.920 4,982 1,0)2 11,562 1987 f)9,720 16,652 1,388 0.841 1,167 5.60 1,750 2,917 1,012 13,649 1988 nl 12,465 18,162 1,514 0.841 1,273 2.50 ts)1,273 1,012 14,750 1989 0 19,382 19,455 1,621 0.858 1,391 0.00 (s)1,391 1,012 22,785 1990 18,675 (}2,075 173 0.875 151 0.00 )151 1-275 1,426 1991 19,842 0 2,205 184 0.892 164 0.00 ()164 1-275 1,439 1992 21,012 0 2,335 195 0.910 177 0.00 fe)177 1,275 1,452 1993 22,183 (*)2,465 205 0.928 191 0.00 0 192 1,275 1,466 1994 23,357 (+)2,595 216 0.947 205 0.00 0 205 1,275 1,480 1995 24,533 (:)2,726 227 0.966 219 0.00 210 429 1/278 1-704 1996 24,646 (t)2.738 228 0.985 225 0.30 420 645 1.275 1,920 1997 24,762 (0)2,751 229 1.005 230 0.60 (t)230 1,275 1,505 1998 24,680 0 2,764 230 1.025 236 0.00 ()236 1,275 1,$11 1999 25,000 (*)2,778 231 1.046 242!0.00 -0 242 1,275 1,517 2000 25,122 0 2,791 233 1.067 248 0.00 420 668 1,275 1.943 2001 25,247 0 2,808 234 1.088 254 0.60 fs)254 1,275 1,529 2002 25,375 0 2.819 235 1.110 261 0.00 °261 1,275 1,536 2003 23,305 0 2,834 236 1.132 267 0.00 644 911 1,275 2,186 2004 25,638 0 2,849 237 1.154 274 0.92 0 274 1-275 1,549 2003 25,773 0 2,864 239 1.178 281 0.00 ()281 1,275 1,556 7006 25,773 fv)2,864 239 1.178 28)0.00 3,920 4,201 1,275 5,476 2007 25,773 (s)2,864 239 1.178 281 5.60 1,750 2-031 1,275 3,306 2008 25,773 0 2.864 239 1.178 281 2.50 0 282 1,275 1,556 2009 25,773 0 2,864 239 1.178 281 0.00 0 281 1,275 1,556 2010 25.773 0 2,864 239 1.178 281 0.00 fe)28}1,275 1,556 2012 25,773 (0)2,864 239 1.178 281 0.00 (e)281 1,275 1,556 2012 23,773 ce)2,864 239 1.178 281 0.00 ft)'281 1,275 1,556 2023 25,773 [°)2,864 239 1.178 281 0.00 0 282 1,275 1-556 7Or4 25,773 0 2,864 239 1.178 261 0.00 o 281 1.275 1,556 2015 25,773 0 2,864 239 1.178 281 0.00 210 491 1,275 1,766 2016 -23.773 (e)2,864 239 1.178 28)0.30 420 701 1,275 1,976 2017 25,773 0 2,864 239 1.178 281 0.60 fs)281 1,275 1,556 2018 25.773 (s)2.864 239 1.178 281 0.00 (0)281 1,275 1,556 2019 23,773 0 2,864 239 1.178 281 0.00 0 281 1,275 1,556 2020 25,773 0 2,864 239 1.178 281 0.00 420 701 1,275 1,976 2021 25,773 0 2,864 239 1.178 281 0.60 0 281 1,275 1,556 7022 25,773 0 2,864 239 1.178 .281 0.00 °281 1,275 1,556 2023 25,773 0 2,864 239 1.178 281 0.00 644 925 1,275 2,200 2074 25,772 0 2,864 239 1.178 281 0.92 re)281 1,275 1,556 2025 253,773 te)2,864 239 1.178 282 0.00 0 281 1,275 1,556 :(1,602)(1,602)(1,602) NPV:$85,965 OTT UNALASKA/DUTCH HARDOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS LOW GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE B(3)- GEOTHERMAL BINARY SYSTEM (THREE UNITS) GROTHERMAL COMPONENT DIESEL COMPONENT -er Se eeenmee TOTAL TOTAL GHOTUPRMAL CONSTRUCTION DIESEL FUE FUEL FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT TOTAL O&M SYSTEM PRODUCTION COSTS PRODUCTION USE PRICE COST SCHEDULE COST cost COST COSTYEAR(Mh/yr )($1000)(MWh/yr )(1000 gal)($/gal)($1000)(Mw)($1000)($1000)($1000)($1000) 1985 0 0 13,663 1,139 0.876 997 0.00 Oo 997 1,012 2,009 1986 0 5,568 15-152 1,263 0.841 1,062 0.00 3.920 4,982 1,012 11,562 1987 ty)11,042 16,652 1,388 0.842 1,167 5.60 1,750 2-917 1,012 14,972 1988 i')18,018 18,162 1,514 0.841 1,273 2.50 o 1,273 1,012 20,303 1989 0 23,264 19,455 1,621 0.858 1,391 0.00 0 1,391 1,012 25,667 1990 18,675 Y)2-075 173 0.875 151 0.00 0 151 1,275 1,426 199)19,842 0 2,205 184 0.892 164 0.00 t!)164 1,275 1-439 1992 21,012 te)2.335 195 0.910 177 0.00 0 177 1,275 1,452 1993 22,183 0 2-465 205 0.928 191 0.00 0 192 1,275 1,466 3994 23,357 0 2,595 216 0.947 205 0.00 )205 1,275 1,480 1995 24-332 0 2,726 227 0.966 219 0.00 210 429 1,275 1,704 1996 24,646 0 2,738 228 0.985 225 0.30 420 645 1,275 1,920 199?24,762 0 2,751 229 1.005 230 0.60 t!)230 1,275 1,505 1998 24,880 Q 2,764 230 1.025 236 9.00 i)236 1,275 1.511 1999 23,000 0 2,778 231 1.046 242!0.00 0 242 1,275 1.517 7000 25,122 0 2,791 233 1.067 248 0.00 420 668 1,275 1.943 2001 254247 0 2,805 234 1.088 254 0.60 Q 254 1,275 1,529 2002 23,375 0 2.819 235 1.210 261 0.00 Q 261 1.275 1.536 2003 23.505 0 2,834 236 1.132 267 0.00 644 911 1.275 2,186 2003 25,638 0 2,849 237 1.154 274 0.92 Qo 274 1,275 1.549 2cc5 254773 te)2,864 239 1.178 281 0.00 o-281 1.275 1,556 2006 25,773 0 2,864 239 4.178 281 0.00 3,920 4,201 1,275 5-476 2007 23,773 fe)2,864 239 1.178 281 5.60 1,750 2,031 1,275 3,306 2008 25,773 0 2,864 239 1.178 281 2.50 i)281 1.275 1,556 2009 23.773 0 2,864 239 1.178 281 0.00 t)281 1,275 1,556 2010 254773 0 2,864 239 1.178 281 0.00 Qo 281 1,275 1,556 2011 25,773 i)2,864 239 1.178 281 -0.00 0 281 1,275 1,556 2012 25,773 is)2,864 239 1.178 281 0.00 0 281 1,275 1,556 2013 23,773 0 2,864 239 1.178 281 0.00 0 281 1,275 1,556 2034 *256773 te)2,864 239 1.178 261 0.00 o 282 1,275 1.556 2015 25,773 0 2,864 239 1.178 281 0.00 210 49]1,275 1,766 2016 25.773 te)2.864 239 1.178 281 0.30 420 701 1,275 1.976 2017 25,773 0 2,864 239 1.178 281 0.60 0 281 1,275 1,556 2038 23,773 Qo 2,864 239 1.178 281 0.00 0 281 1,275 1,556 2019 25,773 0 2,864 239 1.178 281 0.00 0 281 1,275 1,556 7029 25,773 0 2,864 239 1.178 281 0.00 420 701 1.275 1,976 202)25,773 0 2,864 239 1.178 281 0.60 0 281 1,275 1,556 7022 23,773 0 2,864 239 2.178 281 9.00 0 281 1,275 1,556 2623 25,773 0 2,864 239 1.178 281 0.00 644 925 1.275 2,200 2024 25,773 !)2.864 239 1.178 282 0.92 Q 261 1,275 1,556 2023 25,773 0 2,864 239 1.178 281 0.00 0 261 1.275 1,556 (1,602)(1,602)(1,602) NPV:$95,265 LIT UNSLASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS LOW GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE B(4)--GDCTHERMAL BINARY SYSTEM (FOUR UNITS) GPOPRERMAL COMPONENT DIESEL COMPONENTeecenneetneenseneenooono ------TOTAL 'TOTAL CONSTRUCTION DIESEL FUEL FUEL FUEL ANDITION/REPLACEMENT §TOTAL O&M SYSTEM PR x COSTS PRODUCTION USE PRICE COST SCHEDULE cost COST COST COST Yme2 (Mv /yr)($1000)(Muh/yr)(2000 gat)($/gal)($1000)(MW)($1000)($1000)($1000)($1000) 1995 )0 13,662 1-139 0.876 997 0.00 0 997 1,012 2,009 1946 0 5,568 15,152 1,263 0.841 1,062 0.00 3,920 4,982 1,012 11,562 1987 ©12,364 16,652 1,388 0.841 1,167 5.60 1,750 2.917 1,012 16,293 LaRR Qa 23,570 18,162 1,514 0.841 1,273 2.50 0 1,273 1,012 25,855 1989 0 27,145 19,455 1,621 0.858 1,39)0.00 0 1,391 1,012 29,548 1999 18,675 0 2,075 173 0.875 152 0.00 re)151 1,275 1,426 1997 19,84?0 2,205 184 0.892 164 0.00 0 164 1,275 1,439 1992 21.0}0 2,335 195 0.910 177 0.00 0 177 1,275 1,452 1993 22.183 0 2,465 205 0.928 192 0.00 0 191 1,275 1,466 1994 23,357 0 2,595 216 0.947 205 0.00 0 205 1,275 1,480 1995 24,533 0 2,726 227 0.966 219 0.00 210 429 1,275 1,704 1996 24,646 0 2.738 228 0.985 225 0.30 420 645 1,275 1,920 1997 24,762 0 2,751 229 1.005 230 0.60 0 230 1,275 1,505 1998 24,880 0 2,764 230 1.025 23 0.00 0 236 1,275 1,511 1999 25,000 0 2,778 231 1.046 24 0.00 0 242 1,275 1,517 2000 25,122 0 2.791 233 1.067 248 0.00 420 668 1,275 1,943 2002 25,247 0 2,805 234 1.088 254 0.60 0 254 1,275 1,529 2092 25,375 )2.819 235 1.110 262 0.00 fr)261 1,275 1,536 2003 25,505 0 2,834 236 1.132 267 0.00 644 911 1,275 2,186 2004 25,638 0 2,849 237 1.154 274 0.92 0 274 1,275 1,549 2005 23.773 0 2,864 239 1.178 281 0.00 0 282 1,275 1,556 2006 25,773 ry 2.864 239 1.178 281 0.00 3,920 4.201 1.275 5,476 2007 25,773 0 2,864 239 1.178 281 5.60 1,750 2,032 1,275 3,306 7908 25,773 0 2,864 239 1.178 281 2.50 0 281 1,275 1,556 acca 23,773 0 2.864 239 1.178 281 0.00 0 281 1,275 1,556 21 23.773 0 2,864 239 1.178 28)0.00 0 281 1,275 1.556 2027 23,773 0 2,864 239 1.178 281 0.00 0 281 1,275 1,556 712 23,27 0 2,864 239 1.178 281 0.00 0 281 1,275 1,556 2013 25,773 0 2,864 239 1.178 281 0.00 0 281 1,275 1,556 2014 25,773 0 2,864 239 1.178 281 0.00 0 281 1,275 1,556 2015 23,773 0 2,864 239 1.178 281 0.00 210 491 1,275 1,766 2916 2aL773 0 7,864 239 1.178 28)0.30 420 701 1,275 1,976 2017 25,773 0 2,864 239 1.178 281 0.60 0 281 1,275 1,556 2018 25,773 0 2.864 229 1.178 281 0.00 )281 1,275 1,556 2614 43,773 0 2,864 239 1.178 281 0.00 0 281 1,275 1,556 2929 25.773 0 2,864 239 1.178 281 0.00 420 701 1,275 1,976 2023 25,779 0 2,864 239 1.178 281 0.60 0 281 1,275 1,556 202 25,773 0 2,964 239 1.178 281 0.00 0 281 1,275 1,556 2023 25,773 0 2,864 239 1.178 281 0.00 644 925 1,275 2,200 2024 25,773 0 2,864 239 1.178 281 0.92 0 281 1,275 1,536 025 23,773 0 2,864 239 1.178 281 0.00 0 281 1,275 1,556 (1,602)(1,602)(1,602) NPV:$104,563 SIT YERTE 1985 L986 1987 1988 1989 1991) 199} 2992 2993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 7006 2007 7008 2009 2020 20221 2032 2013 2914 2015 2016 2919 UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS LOW GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE C(1)---HYDROELECTRIC SYSTEM -HYDROPOWER COMPONENT DIESEL COMPONENT EYDPOPOWER CONSTRUCTION PRODUCTION (mMuh/yr)eooo°o3,114 3.134 3,114 3,114 3,114 3.124 3,114 3,314 3,114 3,324 3,114 3,114 3,114 3,114 3,114 3,114 3,114 3.114 3,114 3,124 3,114 3.134 3,114 34114 3,114 3,114 3,114 4124 3,114 3,114 3,114 3.374 3,114 3,114 3,114 3,114 3,124 COSTS ($1000)ue.WwoS)eoooooooececooocoooooooocooeoococeocoosecocooo0cOreo°oDICSEL PRODUCTION (mMvIh/yr) 13,663 15,152 16,652 18,162 16,34} 17,636 18,933 20,232 21,534 22,838 24,145 24-271 24,399 24,530 24,664 24,800 24,939 25,080 25,225 25,372 23-523 25,523 25,523 25,523 25,523 25,523 23,523 25,523 25,523 25,523 25,523 25,523 25,523 25.523 25,523 25,523 25,523 256923 25,523 25,523 25,523 FUEL USE (1000 gal) 1,139 1,263 1,388 1,514 1,362 1,470 1,578 1,686 1,795 1-903 2,012 2,023 2,033 2-044 2,055 2,067 2-078 2-090 2-102 2.114 2/127 2-127 2,127 2-127 2412? 2.127 2127 2.127 2,127 2,127 2:127 2-127 2,127 2.127 2,127 2.127 24127 2-127 2.127 2,127 2,12) FUEL PRICE ($/qal) 0.876 0.841 0.841 0.841 0.858 0.875 0.892 0.910 0.928 0.947 0.966 0.985 1.005 1.025 1.046 1.067 1.088 1.110 1.132 1.154 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT COST SCHEDULE ($1000) 997 1,062 1,167 1,273 1,168 1,286 1,408 1,535 1,666 1,802 1,944 1,993 2,043 2,09 2,14 2-204 2,261 2-319 22379 2.441 2-505 2-505 2,505 2,505 2,505 2,505 2,505 2,505 2,505 2,505 2,505 2,505 2,505 2,505 2,505 2,505 2,505 2-505 2,505 2,505 2,505 (iv) 0.00 0.00 5.60 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.50 0.30 0.60 0.00 0.00 9.00 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.92 0.00 0.00 5.60 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.50 0.30 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.92 0.00 COST ($1000) 0 34920 1,750 (2,389) TOTAL Cost ($1000) 997 4,982 2,917 1,273 1,168 1,286 1,408 1,535 1,666 3,552 2-154 2,413 2,043 2,096 2,149 2,624 2,261 2,319 3,023 2,441 2,505 6.425 4,255 2,505 2,505 2,505 2,505 2,505 2,505 4,255 2,715 2,925 2,505 2,505 2,505 2.925 2,505 2,505 3.149 2,505 2,505 (2,389) TOTAL O&M COST ($1000) 2,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 NPV: TOTAL SYSTEM COST _($1000) 2,009 5,994 3,929 7,856 2,210 2.328 2,450 2,577 2,708 4,594 3,196 3,455 3,085 3,138 3,191 3,666 3,303 3,361 4,065 3,483 3,547 7,467 §,297 3,547 3,547 3,547 3,547 3.547 3,547 5,297 3,757 3,967 3,547 3.547 3,547 3,967 3,547 3,547 4,191 3.547 3,547 (2,389) $80/119 6IT UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWFR SYSTEM PLAN AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS LOW GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE C(2)--HYDROELECTRIC SYSTEM HYDROPOWER COMPONENT DIESEI,COMPONENT aeonn TOTAL TOTAL HYDROPOWER CONSTRUCTION DIESEL FUEL FUEL FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT TOTAL O&M SYSTEM PROUCTION COSTS PRODUCTION USE PRICE COST SCHEDULE cost COST COsT COST YER iMuh/yr)($1000)(Mwh/yr )(1000 gal)($/gal)($1000)(Mw)($1000)($1000)($1000)($1000) 1985 0 0 13,663 1,139 0.876 997 0.00 0 997 1,012 2,009 Lak 0 0 15,152 1,263 0.841 1,062 0.00 '3.920 4,982 1,012 5,994 1987 (e}0 '16,632 1,388 0.841 1,167 5.60 1,750 2,917 1,012 3,929 Jang (0)1,762 18,162 1,514 0.842 1,273 2.50 O .1,273 1,012 4,047 1929 2,174 0 17,281 1,440 0.858 1,235 0.00 0 1,235 1,032 2,267 3999 2074 (9)18,576 1,548 0.B75 1.354 0.00 ()1,354 1,032 2,386 199)2,174 0 19,873 1,656 0.892 1,478 0.00 [¢)1,478 1,032 2,510 2992 2,174 0 21,172 1,764 0.910 1.606 0.00 _9 1,606 1,032 2,638 1993 2/174 0 22,474 1,873 0.928 1,739 0.00 1,750 3,489 1,032 4,521 1994 2,174 0 23.778 1,982 0.947 1,877 2.50 (0)1,877 "1,032 2-909 1995 2,374 0 25,085 2,090 0.966 2,019 0.00 210 24229 1,032 3,261 1996 2,174 (¢)25,211 2,101 0.985 2,070 0.30 420 2,490 1,032 3,522 1997 24174 0 25,339 2,112 1.005 2,122 0.60 0 22122 -1,032 3,154 1998 2,174 0 25.470 2.123 1.025 2,176 0.00 (0)2.176 1,032 3,208 1999 24174 0 25,604 2.134 1.046.2,251 0.00 QO 2,231 1,032 3,263 2900 1174 [s)25,740 2.145 1.067 2,288 0.00 420 2.708 1,032 3.740 2001 2,174 0 25,879 2,157 1.088 2,346 0.60 0 2,346 1,032 3,378 2002 2,174 (e)26,070 2,168 1.110 2,406 0.00 (e)2,406 1,032 3.438 2003 2,174 0 26,165 2,180 1.132 2,468 0.00 644 3,112 1,032 4,144 2904 2,174 0 26-312 2,193 1.154 2,531 0.92 0 2-531 1,032 3,563 2005 2,174 0 26,463 2,205 1.178 2,597 0.00 0 2,597 1,032 3,629 7006 2,174 ()26,463 2,205 1.178 2,597 0.00 3,920 6,517 1,032 7,549 2907 2-174 0 26,463 2,205 1.178 2,597 5.60 1,750 4,347 1,032 5,379 705 2.174 f°)26,463 2,205 1.178 2,597 2.50 (e)2,597 1,032 3,629 2099 2,174 (°)26,463 2,203 1.178 2,597 0.00 te)2,597 1,032 3,629 2910 2.174 (9)26.463 2-205 1.178 2.597 0.00 0 2-597 1,032 3,629 2911 24174 0 26,463 2.205 1.178 2,597 0.00 0 2,597 1,032 3,629 2012 2.174 ()26,463 2,205 1.178 2,597 0.00 ce)2,597 1,032 3,629 7013 2,174 0 26,463 2,205 1.178 2,597 0.00 1,750 4,347 1,032 5,379 2014 24274 )26,463 2.205 1.178 2-597 2.50 0 2.597 1,032 3,629 2015 25174 i)26,463 2,205 1.178 2,597 0.00 210 2,807 1,032 3,839 P9916 2,174 0 26,463 2,205 1.178 2.597 0.30 420 3,017 1,032 4,049 2017 24174 0 26,463 2,205 1.178 2,597 0.60 0 2,597 1,032 3,629 7018 2,174 ()26,463 2.205 1.178 2,597 0.00 0 2,597 1,032 3,629 2019 24174 0 26,463 2,205 1.178 2,597 0.00 [0]2,597 1,032 3,629 2029 2.174 0 26,463 "2,205 1.178 =2,597 0.00 420 3,017 1,032 4,049 2023 2,176 0 26,463 2,203 1.178 2,597 0.60 (s)2,597 1,032 3,629 2922 2,174 0 26,463 2-205 1.178 2,597 0.00 (0 2,597 1,032 3,629 2023 2,174 0 26,463 2,205 1.178 2,597 0.00 644 3,241 1,032 4-273 2026 2.174 ts)76,463 2,205 1.178 27,597 0.92 ()2.597 1,032 3,629 2025 2,174 (e)26,463 2,205 1.178 2,597 -0.00 fe)2,597 1,032 3,629 (2,302)(2,302)(2,302) MPV:$78,201 O2T UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POMER SYSTEM PLAN AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS LOW GROWTH SCENARTO *HYDPOPOUER COMPONENT HYDROSCWER CONSTRUCTION PRODUCTION (Mih/yr)oo0) 5,288 5.288 5,288 3,288 5,288 5,288 5,288 3.288 5,288 5,288 5,288 5,288 5,288 5,288 5,288 5.238 5,282 >.288 5.288 3.268 5,288 3,288 5,288 5,288 3,288 5,288 5,288 3,288 3,288 3,288 5,238 5,288 5,288 5-288 5,288 5,288 3,288 COSTS ($1000) 6.38 ec0ocoooocoooooooooocoscocoeoeooocoeooeoocoooo0ooooNooeALTERNATIVE C(3)--HYDROELECTRIC SYSTEM DIESEL PRODUCTION (MvIh/yr) 13,663 15,252 16,652 18,162 14,167 15,462 16,759 18,058 19,360 20,664 21,971 22.097 22,225 22,356 22,490 22-626 22.765 22,906 23,052 23,198 23,349 23,349 23,349 23,349 23,349 23,349 23,349 23,349 23,349 23,349 23,349 23,349 23,349 23,349 23,349 23,349 23,349 23,349 23,349 23,349 23,349 DIESEL COMPONENT FUEL. USE (1000 gal) 1,139 1,263 1,388 1.514 1,181 1,288 1,397 1,505 1,613 1,722 1,831 1,841 1,852 1,863 1,874 1,885 1,897 1,909 1,921 1,933 1,946 1,946 1,946 1,946 1.946 1,946 1,946 1,946 1,946 1.946 1,946 1,946 1,946 1,946 1,946 1,946 1,946 1,946 1,946 1,946 1,946 FUEL PRICE ($/gal) 0.876 0.841 0.841 0.841 0.858 0.875 0.892 0.910 0.928 0.947 0.966 0.985 1.005 1.025 1.046 1.067 1.088 2.110 1.132 2.154 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178" 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT COST SCHEDULE ($1000) 997 1,062 1,167 1,273 1,013 1.127 1,246 1,370 1,498 1,631 1,769 1,814 1,862 1,910 1.960 2,011 2,064 2.118 2,174 2,232 2/291 2.291 2-291 2,291 2.291 2.291 2,291 2,291 2-291 2.291 2,291 2.291 2,291 2,291 2,292 2,293 2.291 2-291 2-291 2,291 2-291 (MW) 0.00 0.00 5.60 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00. 2.50 0.30 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.92 0.00 0.00 5.60 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.50 0.30 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.92 0.00 COST ($1000) 0 3,920 1,750 eooocoso644 fe) 0 (2,389) TOTAL cosT ($1000) 997 4,982 2,917 1,273 1,013 1,127 1,246 1,370 1,498 3,381 1,979 2.234 1,861 1,910 1,960 2-431 2,064 2.118 2,818 2.232 2,291 6,211 4,041 2.291 2,291 2-291 2,291 2,291 2,291 4,041 2,501 2,711 2-291 2.291 2,291 2.711 26291 2,291 2.935 2,291 2.291 (2,389) TOTAL O&M COST ($2000) 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 2,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 NPV TOTAL SYSTEM cost ($1000) 2,009 5,994 3,929 8.672 2,075 2,189 2,308 2,432 2,560 4,443 3,041 3,296 2,923 2,972 3,022 3,493 3,126 3,180 3,880 3,294 3,353 74273 5,103 3,353 3,353 3,353 3,353 3,353 3,353 5,103 3,563 3,773 3,353 3,353 3,353 3.773 3.353 3,353 3,997 3,353 3-353 (2,389) $77,733 Tel YEAR 1985 1986 1937 1986 1989 2990 1997 19g2 1997 1994 1995 1996 199? 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2908 2009 2910 2011 2012 2013 7034 2015 2016 2017 20:8 2019 2929 2022 292? 2023 2924 2025 UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWDR SYSTEM PLAN AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS MODERATE GROWTH SCENARIO DIESEL PROVUCTION (MWn/yr) 13,663 16.435 19,233 7?0358 24,664 27.279 28,72) 40.174 31,638 33,113 34,600 84,917 35,246 35-589 35,946 36,317 36,704 37,106 37,525 37,961 38,415 38,415 38,415 38,415 38,415 38-415 38,415 38,425 38-415 38,415 38,415 38.415 38,415 38.415 38,415 38,415 38,415 38.415 38,4153 38.415 38,415 FUEL USE (1000 gal) 1-139 1,370 1,603 1,838 2,055 2.273 2-393 2.514 2-636 2.759 2.883 2.910 2,937 2,966 2,995 3,026 3,059 3,092 3.127 3,163 3.201 3,201 3,201 3,201 3,201 3.201 3,201 3,201 3,201 3.201 3,201 3,201 3,201 3,201 3.201 3,201 3,201 3,201 3,20) 3,201 3-201 FUEL PRICE ($/gal) 0.876 0.841 0.841 0.841 0.858 0.875 0.892 0.910 0.928 0.947 0.966 0.985 1.005 1.025 1.046 1.067 1.088 1.110 1.132 1.154 1.178 1.178 2.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 2.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 BASE CASE FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT cosT ($1000) 997 1,152 1,348 1,546 1,763 1,989 2,136 2,289 2.448 2,613 2,785 2,867 2,952 3,040 3,132 3,228 3,327 3,431 3,539 3,652 3,770 3.770 3,770 3,770 3,770 3,770 3,770 3.770 3,770 3,770 3,770 3,770 3,770 3,770 3,770 3,770 3,770 3,770 3,770 3.770 3,770 SCHEDULE (Mw) 0.00 0.00 5.60 2.50 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.30 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.60 0.00 2.50 0.92 0.00 0.00 5.60 2.50 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.30 0.60 0.00 0.00 9.00 0.60 0.00 2.50 0.92 0.00 COST ($1000) (3.964) O&M COST ($1000) 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 2,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 2,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1-012 1,012 1,012 1-012 1,012 1,012 2.012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,032 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1.012 1,012 NPV: TOTAL SYSTEM COST ($1000) 2,009 6.084 4,110 4,308 2-775- 3-001 3.148 5,051 3,460 3,625 4,007 4,299 3-964 4,052 4,144 4-660 4,339 6-193 5,195 4.664 4.782 8,702 6,532 6,532 4,782 4,782 4,782 6,532 4,782 4,782 4,992 5,202 4,782 4,782 4,782 5,202 4,782 6,532 5-426 4,78? 4.782 (3,964) $97,293 cel UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS MODERATE GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE A(1)---GEOTHERMAL TOTAL FLOW SYSTEM (ONE UNIT) »GEOTHERMAL COMPONENT DIESEL COMPONENT . vores -TOTAL TOTAL GEOTHERMAL CONSTRUCTION DIESEL FUEL FUEL FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT TOTAL O&M SYSTEM PRODUCTION COSTS PRODUCTION ust PRICE COST SCHEDULE Cost COST COST cosT YEAR (MIh/yr)($1000)(MvIn/yr )(1000 gal)($/gal)($1000)(Mw)($1000)($1000)($1000)($1000) 1985 0 0 13,663 1,139 0.876 997 0.00 0 997 1,012 2,009 1986 QO 5.568 16,435 1,370 0.841 1,152 0.00 3-920 5,072 1,012 11,652 1987 ie)77454 19,233 1,603 0.841 1,348 5.60 1,750 3,098 1,012 11-564 2988 0 2,948 22,058 1,838 0.841 1,546 2.50 1,750 3-296 2,012 7,256 1989 i)12,857 24,664 2,055 0.858 1,763 2.50 (')1.763 1,012 15,632 1990 16,556 [e)210,722 894 0.875 782 0.00 °782 1,275 2,057 L99L 16,556 0 12,165 1,014 0.892 905 0.00 i')905 1,275 2.180 1992 16,556 0 33,617 1,135 0.910 1,033 0.00 0 1,033 2-275 2.308 1993 16,556 0 15,081 1,257 0.928 1,167 0.00 0 1.167 1,275 2,442 1994 16,556 o 16,557 1,380 0.947 1,307 0.00 0 1,307 2.275 2,582 1995 16,556 i')18.044 1,504 0.966 1,453 0.00 210 1,663 1-275 2.938 31996 16,556 Y)18,360 1,530 0.985 1,508 0.30 420 1,928 1.6275 3,203 1997 16,556 0 18,690 1,557 1.005 .1,565 0.60 QO 1,565 1,275 2,840 1998 16,556 Q 19.033 1,586 1.025 1.62 0.00 i)1,626 1,275 2,901 1999 16,556 )19,390 1,616 1.046 1,69 0.00 1,750 3,440 2,275 4,715 2000 16.556 0 19,761 1,647 1.067 1.756 2.50 420 2,176 1,275 3-451 2001 16,556 0 20,148 1,679 1.088 1,827 0.60 0 1,827 1-275 3,102 2902 3.64556 te)20,550 1.713 1.110 1,900 0.00 t')1,900 1,275 3.175 20023 16,556 0 20,969 1,747 1.132 1,978 0.00 644 2,622 1,275 3.897 2904 £6,556 Qo 21,405 2,784 1.154 2,059 0.92 Y)2,059 1,275 34334 2003 16,556 fe)21,859 1,822 1.178 2.145 |0.00 t)2,145 1.275 3,420 20C6 16,556 0 21,859 1,822 1.178 2.145 0.00 3-920 6,065 1.275 7,340 2007 16,556 0 21,859 1,822 1.178 2-145 5.60 1,750 3,895 1,275 5.170 2008 16.556 QO 21,859 1,822 1.178 2-145 2.50 1,750 3,895 1.275 §-170 2099 16,556 0 21,859 1,822 2.178 2,145.2.50 0 2,145 1,275 3,420 2010 36,556 0 21,859 *1,822 1.178 2-145 0.00 0 2.245 1,275 3,420 202%16,556 0 21,859 1,822 1.178 2.145 0.00 t)2.145 1,275 3,420 2022?16-556 Q 21,859 1,822 1.178 2.145 0.00 0 2.148 1,275 3,420 2023 16,556 0 21,859 1,822 1.178 2.145 0.00 i)2-145 1,278 34420 2024 16,556 0 21,859 1,822 1.178 2.145 9.00 i)2.245 1.275 3-420 2015 16,556 0 21,859 1,822 1.178 2.145 0.00 210 2.355 1.275 3,630 2036 16,556 QO 21,859 1,822 1.178 2,145 0.30 420 2,565 1,275 3,840 29017 16,556 0 21,859 1,822 1.178 2,145 0.60 0 24145 1,275 34420 2018 16,556 ()21,859 21,822 .1.178 2,145 0.00 Qo 2.145 1.275 3-420 2019 16,4556 0 21,859 1,822 1.178 2.145 0.00 1,750 3.895 2,275 54170 2020 16,556 0 21,859 1.822 1.178 2.145 2.50 420 2.565 1,275 3.840 2921 16,556 0 21,859 1,822 1.178 2-145 0.60 0 2-145 1,275 3-420 2022 16,556 (!)21,859 1,822 1.178 2.145 9.00 te)2.145 1.275 3,420 2023 16,556 0 21,859 1,822 1.178 2,145 0.00 644 2.789 1,275 4,064 2024 16,556 0 21,859 1,822 1.378 2,145 0.92 ()2.245 1.275 3.420 2025 16,556 0 21,859 1,822 1.178 2/145 0.00 i)2/145 1,275 3-420 (3,089)(3,089)(3.089) NPV:$100,138 €2l YEAR 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2910 2032 2012 2013 2014 2015 29016 201? 2018 2029 2020 2022 2022 2023 2024 2025 FILE: GEOTHERMAL COMPONENT GROTHERMAL CONSTRUCTION PRODUCTI (Mun /yr )92000°24,351 25,849 27,157 28,474 33,113 33,113 33,113 33,113 33,113 33,113 33,113 33,113 33.113 33,113 33,113 33-113 33,133 33,113 33,113 33,113 33,113 33,123 33,1213 33,113 33,413 33,113 33,113 33,113 33,113 33,113 33,1333 33,113 33,113 33,113 33,113 33,113 AQECONOS COSTS ($1000) 0 5.568 7,832 4,536 14,095 t')eoooooooocooocoooocoocoocoocooococoocoooooooUNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS: MODERATE GROWTIHI SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE A(2)--GEOTHERMAL TOTAL FLOW SYSTEM (TWO UNITS) DIESEL COMPONENT DIESEL PRODUCTION (Muin/yr) 13,663 16,435 19,233 22,058 24,664 2.728 2,872 3,017 3,164 (e] 1,488 1,804 2-133 2.476 2,833 3,205 3,591 D 3,994 4,412 4,848 5-302 5-302 5-302 5,302 5-302 5,302 5-302 5-302 5,302 5,302 5,302 5-302 5,302 56302 5,302 5,302 5,302 5,302 5,302 5,302 5-302 FUEL, USE (1000 gal) 2,139 1,370 1,603 1,838 2-055 227 239 251 264 FUEL PRICE ($/gal) 0.876 0.841 0.841 0.84) 0.858 0.875 0.892 0.910 0.928 0.947 0.966 0.985 1.005 1.025 1.046 1.067 1.088 2.110 1.132 1.154 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT COST SCHEDULE ($1000) 997 1,152 1,348 1,546 1,763 199 214 229 245 0 120 148 179 212 247 285 326 369 416 466 520 520 520 520 520 520 520 520 520 520 520 520 520 520 520 520 520 520 $20 520 520 (Mw) 0.00 0.00 5.60 2.50 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.30 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.92 0.00 0.00 5.60 2-50 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.30 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.92 0.00 cosT ($1000) tY) 3,920 1,750 1.750 eooooo$o0 (1,864) TOTAL COST ($1000) 997 5,072 3,098 3,296 1,763 199 214 520 520 730 940 520 520 520 940 §20 $20 1,164 520 520 (1,864) TOTAL O&M COST ($1000) 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,275 1,275 1,278 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 NPV: TOTAL SYSTEM COST ($1000) 2,009 11,652 11,942 8,844 16,870 1,474 1,489 1,504 1,520 1-275 1,605 1,843 1,454 1,487 1,522 1,980 1,601 1,644 2,335 1,741 1,795 5,715 3,545 3.545 1,795 1.795 1,795 1,795 1,795 1,795 2,005 2.215 1,795 1,795 1,795 2,215 1,795 1,795 2,439 1,795 1,795 (1,864) $77,837 vel YEAR 1985 1986 198? 1988 1989 2990 1992 2992 199% 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 200] 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20th 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2028 2019 2929 202: 2022 2023 2024 2025 UNALASKA/DUTCH HARSOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS MODERATE GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE A(3)--GECTHERMAL TOTAL FLOW SYSTEM (THREE UNITS) GEOTHERMAL COMPONENT GEOTHERMAL CONSTRUCTION PROMUCTION (Mwh/yr)eoooofe]24-551 25,849 27.157 28,474 79,802 31,140 32.425 31,722 32,030 32,351 32,686 33,034 33,396 33,773 34,165 34,573 34.573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34.573 34,373 34,573 34,573 34.573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,873 34,573 34,573 34,573 34.573 34.573 34,5973 COSTS ($1000) 0 5,568 8,210 6,124 15,333 eocoooocoooooo0ooocoocooocoooooocoocococooocooosDIESEL COMPONENT DIESEL PRODUCTION (Mulh/yr) 13,663 16,435 19,233 22,058 24,664 2,728 2.872 3,017 3,164 3,311 3,460 3,492 3,525 3,559 3,595 3-632 3-670 3,711 3,753 3.796 3,84) 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3-841 3,841 3,84) 3,841 3,841 3,84) 3,84) 3,84) 3,84) 3,84) 3,84) 3,84) 3,842 3.84) 3,841 FUEL .USE (1000 gal) 1,139 1,370 1,603 1,838 2-055 227 239 251 264 276 288 291 294 297 300 303 306 309 313 316 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 FUEL PRICE ($/gal) 0.876 0.841 0.841 0.841 0.858 0.875 0.892 0.910 0.928 0.947 0.966 0.985 1.005 1.025 1.046 1.067 1.088 1.110 1.132 1.154 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT COST SCHEDULE ($1000) 997 1,152 1,348 1,546 1,763 199 214 229 245 261 279 28? 295 304313! 323 333 343 354 365 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 (MW) 0.00 0.00 5.60 2.50 ooooooocooncocoooececeosSCOOOONNUMOCOOCOOCOOCoCoooeoSecooqgqoocovvrnmoocowoonooocawosd.°oOCOsT ($1000) 0 3,920 1,750 1,750 eoooco644 0 0) 3-920 1,750 1,750 0 TOTAL, COST ($1000) 997 5,072 3,098 3-296 1,763 199 214 229 245 261 489 707 295 304 313 743 333 343 998 365 377 4.297 2,127 20127 377 377 '377 377 377 377 587 797 377 377 377 797 377 377 1,021 377 37? (1,864) TOTAL O&M Cost ($1000) 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1.275 1.275 1,278 1,275 1,275 1,275 1.275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1.275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1-275. 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 2,275 1,275 TOTAL SYSTEM COST ($1000) 2,009 11,652 12,320 10,432 18,108 1,474 1,489 1,504 1,520 1,536 1,764 1,982 1,570 1,579 1,588 2,018 1,608 1,618 2,273 1,640 1,652 5,572 3,402 3,402 1,652 1,652 1,652 1,652 1,652 1,652 1,862 2,072 1,652 1,652 1,652 2,072 1,652 1,652 2,296 1,652 1,652 (1,864) $80,031 Sel YEAR 1985 1986 1987 1988 1999 21990 199" 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 2997 199R 3999 "2000 2032 Bon 2093 BONG 2002 2206 2007 7908 2909 2910 2011) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 FORO 2021 2022 2022 2024 ANI, UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS MODER.TE GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE A(4)--GEQTHERMAL TOTAL FLOW SYSTEM (FOUR UNITS) GEOTHERMAL COMPONENT DIFSEL COMPONENT GDOTHERMAL PRODUCTION (MWh/yr)oooo°o24,531 25,849 27,157 20.476 29,802 31,340 31,425 31,722 322,030 32,35) 32,686 33,034 33.396 33,793 34,165 34,573 34,573 34-373 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,373 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,373 34.573 34,573 34,373 44,373 34,573 CONSTRUCTION cosTs ($1000) 0 5,568 8,588 7e712 16,571 0 ooooonoooococoocooocooocoago9cocooOcseoCcCcococoDIESEL PRODUCTION (MWh/yr) 13,663 16,435 19,233 22,058 24,664 2.728 2,872 3,017 3,164 3,331 3,460 3,492 3,525 3,559 3,595 3,632 3-670 3,711 3,753 3.796 3,84) 3,842 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,84) 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,84) 3,841 3,841 3,842 3.841 3.841 3,841 3,84) 3,842 3,841 3,842 FUEL USE (1000 gal) 1,139 1,370 1,603 1,838 2,055 227 239 251 264 276 288 291 294 297 300 303 306 309 313 316 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 329 FUEL PRICE ($/gal) 0.876 0.841 0.841 0.841 0.858 0.875 0.892 0.910 0.928 0.947 0.966 0.985 1.005 1.025 1.046 1.067 1.088 1.110 1.132 1.154 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT COST SCHEDULE ($1000) 997 1,152 1,348° 1,546 1,763 199 214 229 245 261 279 287 295 394 313 323 333 343 354 365 377 377 377 377 37? 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 (Mw) 0.00 0.00 5.60 2.50 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 9.30 0.60 0.00 9.00 0.00 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.92 0.00° 0.00 5.60 2.50 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.30 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.92 0.00 cost ($1000) QO 3,920 1,750. 1,750 oooo0osote) (1,864) TOTAL COST ($1000) 997 5,072 3,098 3,296 1,763 199 214 229 245 261 489 707 295 304 313 743 333 343 998 365 377 4,297 2.127 2,127 377 377 377 377 377 377 587 797 377 377 377 797 377 377 1,021 377 377 (1,864) TOTAL O&M COST ($1000) 1,012 1,012 2,012 1,012 1,012 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1.275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1.275 1,275 1,275 1.275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1.275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 NPV: TOTAL SYSTEM .COST ($1000) 2,009 11,652 12,698 12,020 19,346 1,474 1,489 1,504 1,520 1,536 1,764 1,982 1,570 1,579 1,588 2,018 1,608 1,618 2.273 1,640 1,652 5,572 3,402 3-402 1,652 1,652 1,652 1,652 1,652 1,652 1,862 2,072 1,652 1,652 1,652 2,072 1,652 1,652 2,296 1,652 1,652 (1,864) $82,798 921 YEER 1985 1986 19E7 [age 2989 1990 399: £992 1993 1994 399e 2996 3997 1998 1999 2000 2003 20292 2003 2004 2005 zoo 2007 2008 2009 200 2022 2012 2017 2O14 2015 2016 UNALASKA/OUTCH HARSOR POWDR SYSTEM PLAN AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS MODERATE GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE A(5) - GEOTHERMAL TOTAS.FLOW SYSTEM (FIVE UNITS) GROTHERM4L COMPONENT DIESEL COMPONENT SOTHARMAL PRODUCTION (Muh /yr ) 32,351 32,686 33,934 33.396 33,773 34,165 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,373 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,393 VW,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,373 434,573 34,573 34,573 24,572 CONSTRUCTION COSTS ($1000) 0 5,568 8,966 9,300 17,809 0 oooo0oo0ooco0ocoocoodcdeoeo0oocoocodcoocooo0oco0coooceDIESEL PRODUCTION (MUih/yr) 13,663 16,435 19,233 22,058 24,664 2,728 2,872 3.017 3,164 BL 3,460 3,492 3,525 3,559 3,595 3,632 3,670 3,723 3,753 3.796 3,84) 3,841 3,84) 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3.84) 3,841 3,841 3,843 3,841 3,84} 3,841 3,843 3,84), 3,841 3,841 3,842 3,84! 3,84° FUT! USE (1000 gal) 1,139 1,370 1,603 1,838 2,055 227 239 251 264 276 288 291 294 297 300 303 306 309 313 316 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 32 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 FUEL PRICE ($/gal) 0.876 0.841 0.841 0.84) 0.858 0.875 0.892 0.910 0.928 0.947 0.966 0.985 1.005 1.025 1.046 1.067 1.088 1.110 1.132 1.154 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.378 1.178 FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT COST SCHEDULE ($1000) 997 1,152 1,348 1,546 1,763 199 214 229 245 261 279 287 295 304 H13 323 333 343 354 365 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 W7 477 377 377 377 377 (Mw) 0.00 0.00 5.60 2.50 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.30 0.60 Noscooogoooooo0co0o0oo0o0coec°ooscsODSVSODOSOGOOGOOOOOONNUVSOOoe.owoonoooamwooodcdooryadceooCOST ($1000) 0 3.920 1,750 1.750 eooocoo°oQ (1,864) TOTAL COST ($1000) 997 5,072 3,098 3-296 1,763 199 214 229 245 261 489 707 295 304 313 743 333 343 998 365 377 4.297 2,127 2-127 377 377 377 377 377 377 $87 797 377 377 377 797 377 377 1,021 377 377 (1,864) TOTAL O&M COST ($1000) 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1-275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1.275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 L275 NPVs TOTAL SYSTEM cost ($1000) 2,009 11,652 13,076 13,608 20,584 1,474 1,489 1,504 1,520 1,536 1,764 1,982 1,570 1,579 1,588 2,018 1,608 1,618 2.273 2,640 1,652 5,572 34402 3-402 1,652 1,652 1,652 1,652 1-652 1,652 1,862 2,072 1,652 1-652 1.652 2,072 1,652 1,652 2,296 1,652 1,652 (1,864) $85,565 Let 1985 1986 1987 2988 1989 1990 19923 1992 1993 994 1995 2998 1995 999 OOOoumi3aq"OoSIHfepebebeeeODS.oFMohsNiNNENNSoooro.oooo0ao00riOStetaNbbecebebebeatitOODWLowtmwOLNoteibUNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS MODERATE GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE A(6)--GEOTHERMAL TOTAL FLOW SYSTEM (SIX UNITS) GHOTRERMAL COMPONENT DIESEL COMPONENT GDOTHERMAL PPOUUCTTON eMun/yyr)ooo°o0 24,551 25,849 27,357 28,474 29,892 32,149 3,425 31,722 22,9030 32,352 32,686 23,034 43.296 33.773 24,163 34,573 34,4573 34,573 34,573 34,573 24,573 34.573 34,373 34,373 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,3573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,373 34.573 34,573 24,973 34-573 CONSTRUCTION COSTS ($1000) 0 5,568 9,344 10,888 19,047 ecooo0oocoocoooceocoocoocooococcoooco9ocooc0oo0co00DIFSCL PRODUCTION (Mvlh/yr) 13,663 16,435 19,233 22,058 24,664 2.728 2,872 3.017 3,164 3,311 3,460 3.492 3-525 3.559 3,595 3,632 3,670 3.7211 3,753 3,796 3,841 3,84) 3,841 3,84) 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,84) 3,841 3,841 3,84) 3,841 3,841 3,84) 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,84! 3,841 3,84! 3,843 FUEL USE (1000 gal) 1,139 1,370 1,603 1,838 2,055 227 239 231 264 276 288 291 294 297 300 303 306 309 313 316 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 FUEL PRICE ($/gal) 0.876 0.841 0.841 0.841 0.858 0.875 0.892 0.910 0.928 0.947 0.966 0.985 2.005 1.025 1.046 1.067 1.088 1.110 1.132 1.154 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.198 1.178 FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT COST SCHEDULE ($1000) 997 1,152 1,348 1,546 1,763 199 214 229 245 261 279 287 295 394 313 323 333 343 354 365 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 477 397 377 372, 377 377 377 377 37? 377 (Mw) 0.00 0.00 .5.60 2.50 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.30 0.60 0.00 9.00 0.00 0.60 9.00 0.00 0.92 0.00 0.00 5.60 2.50 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.30 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.92 . 0.00 cost ($1000) 0 3,920 1,750 1,750 ooie) (1,864) TOTAL cost ($1000) 997 5,072 3,098 3-296 1,763 199 214 229 245 261 489 707 295 304 313 743 333 343 998 365 -377 4,297 2-127 2.127 377 377 377 377 377 377 587 797 37? 377 377 797 377 377 1,021 377 377 (1,864) TOTAL O&M cost ($1000) 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,275 2,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 4sTOTAL SYSTEM COST ($1000) 2,009 11,652 13,454 15,196 21,822 1,474 1,489 1,504 1,520 1,536 1,764 1,982 1,570 1,579 1,588 2,018 1,608 1,618 2-273 1,640 1,652 5-572 3,402 3,402 1,652 1,652 1,652 1,652 1,652 1,652 1,862 2.072 1,652 1,652 1,652 2,072 1,652 1,652 2,296 1,652 1,652 (1,864) $88,332 821 WALASKA/DUTCH HARSOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS MODERATE GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE 8(1)---GROTHERMAL BINARY SYSTEM (ONE UNIT):. GEOTHERMAL COMPONENT DIESEL COMPONENT meee cee ce me weeee ene een meres ames eee one neen a ie mee ene ee manenmennn aroma eee Sos TOTAL TOTAL GDOTHERMAL CONSTRUCTION DIESEL FUEL FUEL FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT TOTAL O&M SYSTEM PPODUCTION COSTS PRODUCTION USE PRICE COST SCHEDULE cost COST COST COST (MUe /yr)($1000)(MWh/yr)(1000 gal)($/gal)($1000)(MW)($1000)($1000)($1000)($1000) 0 0 13,663 1,139 0.876 997 0.00 t)997 1,012 2,009 0 5.568 16.435 1,370 0.841 1,152 0.00 3,920 5,072 1,012 11,652 0 8,398 19,233 1,603 0.841 1,348 5-60 1,750 3,098 1,012 12,508 0 6,913 22,058 1,838 0.84)1,546 2.50 1.750 3,296 1.012 11,221 ie)15,501 24,664 2,055 0.858 1,763 2.50 0 1,763 1,012 18,276 26,411 i)867 72 0.875 63 0.00 0 63 1,275 1,338 26,411 0 2.310 192 0.892 172 0.00 0 172 1,275 1,447 26,411 te)34762 314 0.910 285 0.00 o 285 1,275 1,560 26-411 ()5,226 436 0.928 404 0.00 0 404 1,275 1,679 26,411 te)6,702 558 0.947 529 0.00 y $29 1.275 1,804 26-411 0 8,189 682 0.966 659 0.00 210 869 1-275 2-144 26,411 9 8,505 709 0.985 698 0.30 420 1.118 1,275 2.393 26,411 0 8,835 736 1.005 740 0.60 0 740 1,275 2,015 26.411 0 9,178 765 1.025 7p4 0.00 4)784 1,275 2,059 26,411 0 9,535 795 1.046 831 0.00 0 831 1-275 2-106 26.411 i)9,906 826 1.067 880 9.00 420 1,300 1,275 2-975 26,411 0 10,293 858 1.088 933 0.60 0 933 1,275 2-208 26,411 i)10,695 891 1.110 989 0.00 0 989 1,275 2,264 26,411 Ce]11,114 926 1.132 1,048 0.00 644 1,692 1.275 2-967 26,411 QO 11,550 ,962 2.154 1.111 0.92 0 1,112 1,275 2.386 26,411 0 12,004 1,000 1.178 1,178 0.00 t)1,178 1,275 2,453 26.412 0 12,004 2,000 1.178 1,178 0.00 3,920 5,098 1,275 6.373 26,412 [Y)12.004 1,000 1.178 1,178 5.60 1,750 2-928 1,275 4,203 26,42 Qo 12,004 1,000 1.178 1.178 2.50 1,750 2,928 1,275 4,203 26,411 0 12,004 1,000 1.178 1,178 2.50 0 1,178 1,275 2,453 26,411 9 12.004 1,000 1.178 1,178 0.00 (')1,178 1.275 2-453 26,411 0 12,004 1,000 1.178 1,178 0.00 te)1,178 1,275 2,453 26,431 Q 12,004 1,000 1.178 1,178 0.00 J 1,178 1-275 2,453 26,412 0 12,004 1,000 1.178 1,178 0.00 i)1,178 1,275 2,453 26,411 0 12,004 2,000 1.178 1,178 0.00 (*)1,178 1,275 2,453 26,411 0 12,004 1,000 1.178 1,178 0.00 210 1,388 1,275 2,663 26,411 (e)12,004 1,000 1.178 1,178 0.30 420 1,598 1,275 2.873 26,41)Qo 12,004 1,000 1.178 1-178 0.60 9 1,178 1,275 2,453 26.4911 0 12,004 1,000 1.178 1,178 0.00 0 1,178 1,275 2,453 26-41)is)12,004 1,000 1.178 1,178 0.00 0 1,178 1.275 2-453 276,411 Qo *12,004 1,000 1.178 1,178 0.00 420 1,598 1,275 2,873 26-411 0 12,004 1,000 1.178 1,178 0.60 i*)1,178 1,275 2,453 26.413 0 12,004 1,000 1.178 1.178 0.00 Q 1,176 1.275 2,453 26,412 0 12,004 1,000 1.178 1,178 0.00 644 1,822 1,275 3,097 26.411 0 12,004 1,000 1.178 1,178 0.92 QO 1,178 1.275 2.453 26-411 0 12,004 1,000 1.178 1,178 0.00 0 1,178 1.275 2-453 (1,864)(1,864)(1,864) NPV:$90,315 621 YEAR 1985 1986 1987 2988 1989 1990 1991 2992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1a99 2900 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2996 2007 2008 2009 2c10 2011 2912 2013 2014 2013 2016 2017? 7018 2019 2020 2021 PO22 2023 7024 2025 UNA LASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS MODERATE GROWTH SCENARIO GEOTHERMAL COMPONENT ALTERNATIVE R(2)---GROTHERMAL BINARY SYSTEM (TWO UNITS) DIESEL COMPONENT GEOTHERMAL CONSTRUCTION PRODUCTION (mvb/yr)ooo°o°24,551 25,849 27,157 28,474 29,802 31,140 32,425 31,722 32,030 32,35) 32,686 33,034 33,396 33,773 34,385 34,573 44,577 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,AT3 34,573 34,573 34.573 34,973 34,573 34,373 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 COSTS ($1000) t) 5,568 9,720 12,465 19,382 0 oooco0ococoocooocooocoococeoococeooecoocoooocooo0oo0o00c°0DIESEL PRODUCTION (Mulbh/yr) 13,663 16,435 19,233 22,058 24,664 2.728 2,872 3,017 3-164 3,311 3,460 3-492 3,525 3,559 3,595 3,632 3,670 3-711 3,753 3.796 3,841 3,841 3,842 3,842 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,842 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,842 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 FUEL USE (1000 gal) 1-139 1,370 1,603 1,838 2,055 227 239 251 264 276 288 291 294 297 300 303 306 309 313 316 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 FUEL PRICE ($/gal) 0.876 0.841 0.841 0.841 0.858 0.875 0.892 0.910 0.928 0.947 0.966 0.985 2.005 1.025 1.046 1.067 1.088 1.210 1.132 1.154 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 4.178 1.178 1.178 FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT COST SCHEDULE ($1000) 997 1,152 1,348 1,546 1.763 199 214 229 245 261 279 287 295 304 313 323 333 343 354 365 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 (Mw) 0.00, 0.00 5.60 2.50 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.30 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.92 0.00 0.00 5.60 2.50 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.30 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.92 0.00 COST ($1000) t) 3,920 1,750 2,750 3.920 1,750 1,750 eooooo°o"0 (1,864)eooooocoTOTAL COST ($1000) 997 5,072 3,098 3-296 1-763 199 214 229 245 261 489 707 295 304 313 743 333 343 998 365 377 4,297 2/127 2-127 377 377 377 377 377 377 587 797 377 377 377 797 377 377 1,021 377 377 (1,864) TOTAL O&M CosT ($1000) 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,278 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 TOTAL SYSTEM cost ($1000) 2,009 11,652 13,830 16.773 22,157 1,474 1,489 1-504 1,520 1,536 1,764 1,982 1,570 1.579 1,588 2,018 1,608 1,618 2-273 1,640 1,652 5-572 3,402 3,402 1,652 1,652 1,652 1,652 1,652 1,652 1,862 2,072 1,652 1,652 1,652 2,072 1,652 1,652 2-296 1,652 1,652 $90,328 O€T 7002 2003 7004 2903 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 POTS 2016 2017 2018 2039 2929 2022 2022 2623 2904 2025 UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS .MODERATE GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE B(3)--GEOTHERMAL BINARY SYSTEM (THREE UNITS) GEOTHERMSL,COMPONENT DIESEL COMPONENT GLOTHERMAL DPRONUCTION (mwh/yr)ooocoP4,551 25,849 27.157 28,474 29,802 32,140 31,425 31,722 32,030 32-351 32.686 33,034 33,396 33,773 34,4165 34,573 34.573 34,593 34,573 34,573 34.573 34,573 34,473 34.573 34.573 34,573 $4,573 34,573 34,573 34,573 34,4573 34.593 34,373 34,573 34,5738 34,5723 CONSTRUCTION COSTS ($1000) 0 ae 568 11,042 18,018 23,264 (e)oeooooodcocoeecocoooocoocooooooeooscoocooooeo0o0o000DIESEL PRODUCTION (Mwh/yr) 13,663 16,435 19,233 22,058 24,664 2,728 2,872 3,017 3,164 3,311 3,460 3,492 3.525 3,559 3,595 3,632 3,670 3711 3,753 3.796 3,841 3,841 3,842 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,841 3,84) 3,841 3,841 3,84) 3,84} 3,84) 3,84 (3,841 3,841 3,043 FUEL USE (1000 gal) 1,139 1,370 1,603 1,838 2,055 227 239 251 264 276 288 291 294 297 300 303 306 309 313 316 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 FUEL PRICE ($/gal) 0.876 0.841 0.841 0.841 0.858 0.875 0.892 0.910 0.928 0.947 0.966 0.985 1.005 3.025 1.046 1.067 1.088 1.110 1.132 1.154 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT COST SCHEDULE ($1000) 997 1,152 1,348 1,546 1,763 199 214 229 245 261 279 287 295 304 313 323 333 343 354 365 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 37? 377 377 377 377 377 377 377 37? 377 37? (mw) 0.00 0.00 5.60 2.50 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 9.00 0.00 0.30 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.92 0.00 0.00 5.60 2.50 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.30 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.92 0.00 cost ($1000) 0 3,920 1.750 "1,750 oo3.920 1,750 1,750 oooooso0 (1,864) TOTAL cost ($1000) 997 5,072 3-098 34296 1.763 199 214 229 245 261 489 707 295 304 313 743 333 343 998 365 377 4,297 2-127 2.127 377 377 377 377 377 377 587 797 377 377 377 797 37? 377 1,021 377 377 (1,864) TOTAL O&M COST ($1000) 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1.275 1,275 1,275 1,275 "14275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1.275 1,275 1,275 1.275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1.275 1,275 NPV: TOTAL SYSTEM COST ($1000) 2,009 11,652 15,152 22,326 26,039 1,474 1,489 1,504 1,520 1,536 1,764 1,982 1,570 1,579 1,588 2,018 1,608 1,618 2,273 1,640 1,652 5,572 3,402 3,402 1,652 1,652 1,652 1,652 1,652 1,652 1,862 2,072 1,652 1,652 1,652 2,072 1,652 1,652 2.296 1,652 1,652 (1,864) $99,628 TeT oooodaocdNORDNYNSbetbebebebetowtcotmeteOSOOOM0foreaR'NVWSNoNloNBwneweOOGMohbeownMdeoooo0eeoocoOauOoreCoNMfetoretyNroo0a0otdJttwien)oOUNALASKA/DUTCH!HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS MODERATE GROWTH SCENARTO ALTERNATIVE 3(4)--GEOTHERMAL BINARY SYSTEM (FOUR UNITS) GPOTHERMSL COMPONENT DIESEL COMPONENT pene ene cents omen oenenes grains eeemeeee cenmen enemas semenetnen eencnecin ee meneame ne TOTAL TOTAL GEOTHFRMAL CONSTRUCTION DIESEL * RUEL FUEL FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT TOTAL O&M =SYSTEM ORS AIT TON COSTS PRODUCTION OSE PRICE COST SCHEDULE COST COST COST COST(Muh/yr )($1000)(MUh/yr )(1000 gal)($/gal)($1000)(MW)($1000)($1000)($1000)($1000) 0 °13,663 1,139 0.876 997 0.00 0 997 1,012 2-009 0 5,568 16,435 1,370 0.841 1,152 0.00 3.920 5,072 1,012 11,652 0 12,364 19,233 1,603 0.841 1,348 5.60 1,750 3,098 1,012 16-474 0 23,570 22,058 1,838 0.841 1,546 2.50 1,750 3.296 1,012 27,878 0 27,145 24,664 2,055 0.858 1,763 2.50 ()1,763 1,012 29,920 24,531 0 2,728 227 0.875 199 0.00 199 1,275 1-474 25,849 0 2,872 239 0.892 214 0.00 fs)214 1,275 1,489 27,157 (s)3,017 251 0.910 229 0.00 ts)229 1,275 1,504 28,474 (0)3,164 264 0.928 245 0.00 (s)245 1,275 1,520 29,802 ft)3,321 276 0.947 261 0.00 0 261 1,275 1,536 3,140 0 3,460 288 0.966 279 0.00 210 489 1,275 1,764 31,425 ()3,492 291 0.985 287 0.30 420 707 1,275 1,982 31,722 (°)3.525 294 1.005 295 0.60 0 295 1,275 1,570 412,930 0 3,559 297 1.025 304 0.00 ()304 1,275 1,579 32,3352 0 3,595 300 1.046 313 0.00 (s)313 1,275 1,588 32,686 0 3.632 303 1.067 323 0.00 420 743 1,275 2,018 33,034 0 3,670 306 1.088 333 0.60 °333 1,275 1,608 23,396 °3.722 309 1.110 343 0-00 (e)343 1,275 1,618 23.772 0 3,753 313 1.132 354 0.00 644 998 1,275 2,273 34,165 0 3,796 316 1.154 365 0.92 0 365 1,275 1,640 34,573 (*)3,841 320 1.178 37?0.00 0 377 1,275 1,652 44,573 (e)3.841 320 1.178 377 0.00 3,920 4,297 1,275 5,572 34,5723 0 3,842 320 1.178 377 5.60 1,750 2.127 1,275 3,402 34,573 fe)3,841 320 1.178 377 2.50 1-750 2.127 1,275 3,402 34,4573 (e)3,841 320 1.178 377 2.50 (s)377 1-275 1,652 34,573 0 3,84)320 1.178 377 0.00 :()377 1,275 1,652 324,572 0 3,84]320 1.178 377 0.00 0 377 1,275 1,652 24,373 fe)3,841 320 1.178 377 0.00 (e)377 1,275 1,652 34,573 (*)3,841 320 1.178 377 0.00 0 377 1,275 1/652 34,573 0 3,841 320 1.178 377 0.00 0 377 1,275 1,652 34,373 °3,84)320 1.178 377 0.00 210 587 1,275 1,862 34,573 (s)3.84)320 1.178 377 0.30 420 797 1-275 2,072 34,573 0 3,841 320 1.178 377 0.60 0 377 1,275 1,652 34,573 )3,841 320 1.178 377 0.00 0 377 1,275 1,652 34,573 0 3,841 320 1.178 377 0.00 0 377 1,275 1,652 34,373 ()3,841 320 1.178 377 0.00 420 797 1,275 2,072 34,373 0 3,841 320 1.178 377 0.60 0 377 1.275 1,652 34,573 0 3,841 320 -1.178 377 0.00 (0)377 1,275 1,652 34,573 0 3,84)320 1.178 377 0.00 644 1,021 1-275 2,296 34,573 9°3,842 320 1.178 377 0.92 0 377 1,275 1,652 34,573 0 3,84)320 1.178 377 0.00 f(t)377 1,275 1,652 (1,864)(1,864)(1,864) NPV:$108,926 cel UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POMER SYSTEM PLAN AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS MODERATE GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE C(1)--HYDROELECTRIC SYSTEM MYDPOPOWER COMPONENT DIESEL COMPONENT ---TOTAL =TOTAL MOWSR CONSTRUCTION DIESEL FUEL FUEL FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT TOTAL O&M =SYSTEMHYD PRODUCTION COSTS PRODUCTION USE PRICE COST SCHEDULE COST cost COST COST YEAR iMuih /yr)($1000)(Mwh/yr )(1000 gal)($/gal)($1000)(Mw)($1000)($1000)($1000)($1000) 1985 QO 0 13,663 1,139 0.876 997 0.00 0 997 '1,012 2,009 1986 ie)[)16,435 1,370 0.841 1,152 0.00 3,920 5-072 1,012 6-084 1985 0 0 19,233 1,693 0.841 1,348 5.60 1,750 3,098 1,012 4,110 1988 9 8.571 22,058 1,838 0.841 1,546 2.50 iy 1,546 1,012 8.129 1989 3,114 0 21,550 1,796 0.858 1,540 0.00 1.750 3-290 1,042 4,332 1990 3,114 0 24-165 2,014 0.875 1,762 2.50 Qo 1,762 1,042 2,804 1992 3,114 (9)25,607 2,134 0.892 1,904 0.00 °1.904 1,042 2,946 1992 3,114 (¢)27,060 2,255 0.910 2-053 0.00 QO 2,053 1,042 3,095 1993 3-114 0 28,524 2,377 0.928 2,207 0.00 1-750 3,957 1.042 4,999 1994 3.314 ()29,999 2-500 0.947 2.368 2.50 0 2.368 1.042 3-410 1995 3,114 QO 31,486 2,624 0.966 2,535 0.00 210 2,745 1,042 3-787 1996 (3,114 0 31,803 2-650 0.985 2,611 0.30 420 3,032 1,042 4,073 199?3,114 0 324132 2,678 1.005 2-691 0.60 ty)2,691 1,042 3-733 1998 3,114 tt)32.475 2.706 2.025 2.74 0.00 t)2.774 1,042 3,816 1999 3,114 ts)32,832 24736 1.046 2,861 0.00 0 2,861 1,042 3,903 2000 3.114 0 33,203 2.767 1.067 2,951 0.00 420 3-371 1,042 4,413 2001 3,114 0 33,590 2-799 1.088 3,045 0.60 Qo 3,045 1,042 4,087 200?3,114 Q 33,992 2,833 2.110 3.143 0.00 0 3,143 1,042 4.185 2003 3,114 0 34,411 2,868 2.132 3,246 0.00 644 3,890 1.042 4,932 2004 3.124 ')34.847 2,904 1.154 3,352 0.92 0 3-352 1,042 4,394 2005 3,214 0 35,301 2,942 1.178 3,464 0.00 Qo 3-464 1,042 4,506 7906 3.114 )35,301.2,942 1.178 3,464 0.00 3,920 7,384 1,042 8.426 2007 3,114 QO 35,301 2,942 1.178 3-464 5.60 1-750 §,214 1,042 6-256 2008 3.214 0 35.301 2.942 1.178 3,464 2.50 i)3,464 1,042 4,506 2009 3,114 0 35,301 27942 1.178 3,464 0.00 1,750 5-214 1,042 6,256 2910 3-114 0 35.301 2,942 1.178 3.464 2.50 ()3,464 1,042 4,506 2011 3-114 (e)35,301 2,942 1.178 3-464 0.00 i)3464 1.042 4,506 2012 3.114 9 45,301 2,942 1.178 3,464 0.00 0 3.464 1.042 4,506 2013 3,114 0 35,301 2-942 1.178 3-464 0.00 1,750 5-214 1,042 6,256 POL4 3.324 te)35,301 2,942 1.178 3,464 2.50 iy 3.464 1,042 4-506 2015 3,114 0 35,301 2,942 1.178 3-464 0.00 210 3,674 1,042 4,716 2016 3,314 QO 35.301 2,942 1.178 3-464 0.30 420 3.884 1,042 4.926 2017 3,114 0 35,302 2,942 1.178 3.464 0.60 0 3,464 1,042 4-506 2918 3,214 QO 35,301 2,942 1.178 3,464 0.00 Oo 3,464 1,042 4,506 2o1a 3,124 0 35,301 22942 1.178 3,464 0.00 0 3.464 1,042 4,506 2020 3,314 (e)35,303 2,942 1.178 3,464 0.00 420 3,884 1,042 4,926 2E?.3,114 )35,301 2,942 1.178 3.464 0.60 0 3-464 1,042 4,506 2027 3,114 Ve)35,301 2,942 1.178 3.464 0.00 0 3,464 1,042 4.506 2023 3,214 te)35,301 2,942 1.178 3,464 0.00 644 4,108 1.042 5,150 2024 3.114 0 35-301 2,942 1.178 3,464 0.92 Qo 3,464 1,042 4,506 2025 3,114 0 35,301 24942 1.178 34464 0.00 0 3,464 1,042 4,506 (2,652)(2,652)(2,652) NPV:$96,484 €€T YEAR 1985 19OR6 3987 1988 19aq 1999 199° 1992 3992 1494 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 7020 2021 2012 2013 2014 POLS 2016 2017 202185 2019 2029 2027 2022 2023 2024 2025 UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS MODERATE GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE C(2)--HYDROELECTRIC SYSTEM HYDPOPOWER COMPONENT HYD OCOWER CONSTRUCTION PPONUCTION (euh/yr)ooo°o22174 2.174 2,176 22174 2/174 oel?4 2.174 24174 2,174 2.174 2,174 2,174 2-174 2.174 2-174 24174 2,174 2.174 2,174 2,174 2.174 2,374 24174 2,174 2/174 26174 2/174 Psl7A 24174 2.174 2.174 2.174 2/374 2.174 2,174 2,174 2,174 COSTS ($1000)oeJneocog0eogcgeoaoocoaoeoeeoeoeooeceoeodoooooocooeooooooooonoooDIESEL COMPONENT DIESEI. PRODUCTTON (Milh/yr) 13,663 36,435 19,233 22,058 22,490 25,105 26,547 28,000 29,464 30,939 32,426 32,743 33-072 33,415 33,772 34,143 34,530 34.932 35-351 35,787 36,241 36,24) 36,241 36,242 36,241 36,24) 36,241 36,241 36.241 36.241 36,241 36,2423 36,241 36,741 36241 36,241 36,241 36.241 36,24) 36.241 36,241 FUEL USE (1000 gal) 1,139 1,370 1,603 1,838 1,874 2,092 2-212 2,333 2-455 2.578 2,702 2.729 2,756 2,785 2,814 2,845 2,878 2,911 2,946 2,982 3,020 3,020 3,020 3.020 3,020 3,020 3,020 3,020 3,020 3,020 3,020 3,020 3,020 3,020 3.020 3,020 3,020 3,020 3,020 3,020 3,020 FUEL, PRICE ($/gal) 0.876 0.841 0.841 0.841 0.858 0.875 0.892 0.910 0.928 0.947 0.966 0.985 1.005 1.025 1.046 1.067 1.088 1.110 1.132 1.154 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT COST SCHEDULE ($1000) 997 1,152 1,348 1,546 1,608 1,830 1,974 2,124 2,280 22442 2,610 2,689 2,770 2,855. 2,943 3-035 3-130 34230 3,334 3,443 3,556 3,556 3,556 3.556 3.556 3-556 3,556 3,556 3,556 3,556 3,556 3,556 3,556 3,556 3,556 3,556 3,556 3.556 3,556 3,556 3,556 (Mw) 0.00 0.00 5.60 2-50 0.00 2.50 0.00 0.00. 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.30 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.92 2.50 0.00 5.60 2.50 0.00 2.50 0.00 0.00 2-50 0.00 0.00 0.30 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.60 *0.00 0.00 0.92 2.50 cosT ($1000) 644 1-750 te) (4,139) TOTAL COST ($1000) 997 5,072 3,098 1,546 3,358 1,830 1,974 3,874 2-280 2,442 2.820 3,109 2,770 2,855 2,943 3,455 3,130 3,230 3,978 $,193 3,556 7,476 5,306 3,556 5,306 3-556 3,556 5,306 3,556 3,556 3,766 3,976 3,556 3,556 3,556 3.976 3,556 3,556 4,200 5,306 3,556 (4,139) TOTAL O&M Cost ($1000) 1,012 2,012 1,012 1,012 1,032 1,032 1,032 1,032 1,032 1,032 1,032 1,032 1,032 1,032 1,032 1,032 1,032 1,032 1,032 1,032 1,032 1.032 1,032 1,032 1,032 1,032 1,032 1,032 1,032 1,032 1,032 1-032 1,032 1,032 1,032 1.032 1,032 1,032 1,032 1,032 1,032 NPV: TOTAL SYSTEM COST ($1000) 2,009 6,084 4,110 4,320 4,390 2-862 3,006 4,906 3,312 3,474 3,852 4.141 3,802 3.887 3.975 4,487 4:162 4,262 5,010 6,225 4,588 8-508 6,338 4,588 6,338 4,588 4,588 6,338 4,588 4,588 4,798 5,008 4,588 4,588 4,588 5,008 4,588 4,588 54232 6,338 4,588 (4,139) $95,518 VET YVE4LR 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 L994 1995 1996 199° 1999 1999 290 2002 2002 200% 2004 2005 2006 2007 7908 2009 7010 20131 2012 2013 2924 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 7029 2021 TORR 2023 2024 2025 UNALASKA/DUTCH HARSOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS MODERATE GROWTH SCENARTO ALTIRNATIVE C(3)----HYDROELECTRIC SYSTEM HYDROPCUER COMPONENT DIESEL COMPONENT HYDROPOWER CONSTRUCTION PRODUCTION (MW5/yr)sssesNNNNEWwowuruuotNwtd.nonanwaannwDowmwnnaowmwwmnmnoodcd3mutisN?D2COSTS ($1000) 6-38 eoo0oooocecocoooeoeoecocoooeo0o°oocdcoooocoocooooeoooconoceDIESEL PRONUCTION (MWh/yr) 13,663 16,435 19,233 22,058 19,376 21,991 23,433 24,886 26,350 27,825 29,312 29,629 29,958 30,301 30,658 31,029 31,416 31,818 32,237 32,673 33,127 33.327 33,127 33,127 33,127 33,127 33,127 33,127 33,127 33,127 33,127 33,127 33,127 33,127 33,127 33,127 33,127 33,127 33,127 33,127 33,127 FUEL USE (1000 gal) 1,139 1,370 1,603 1,838 1,615 1.833 1,953 2,074 2-196 2,319 2,443 2,469 2,497 2.525 2-555 2,586 2,618 2,652 2,686 2.723 2,761 2.762 2,761 2,761 2,761 2-762 2,761 2-761 2,761 2.761 2,761 2.761 2,761 2,762 2,761 2-761 2-761 2,761 2,761 2.761 2,761 FUEL PRICE ($/gal) 0.876 0.841 0.841 0.842 0.858 0.875 0.892 0.910 0.928 0.947 0.966 0.985 1.005 1.025 1.046 1.067 1.088 1.110 1.132 1.154 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT COST SCHEDULE ($1000) 997 1,152 1,348 1,546 1,385 1,603 1,743 1,888 2,039 2,196 2,360 2,433 2,509 2,589 2,671 2.758 2,848 2,942 3,041 3.143 3,251 3,251 3,251 3,251 3,251 3,251 3,251 3,251 3,251 3,251 3,251 3,251 3,251 3-251 3,251 3,251 3,251 3,251 3,251 3,251 3,251 (MW) 9.00 0.00 5.60 2-50 0.00 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.50 0.30 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.92 0.00 0.00 5.60 2.50 0.00 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.50 0.30 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.92 0.00 COST ($1000) 0 3,920 1,750 Qo 1,750 (2,739) TOTAL COST ($1000) 997 5,072 3,098 1,546 3,135 1,603 1,743 1,888 2-039 3,946 2,570 2,853 2,509 2-589 2,671 3.178 2,848 2,942 3,685 3,143 3,251 7171 5,001 3,251 5,001 3,251 3,251 3,251 3,251 5,001 3,461 "3,671 3,251 3,251 3,251 3,671 3,251 3,251 3,895 3,251 3,251 (2,739) TOTAL O&M COST ($1000) 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 2,062 21,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1-062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1-062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 TOTAL SYSTEM cosT ($1000) 2,009 6.084 4-110 8,945 4,197 2,665 2,805 2,950 3-101 5.008 3,632 3-915 34571 3.651 3,733 4,240 3,910 4,004 4,747 4,205 4,313 8,233 6,063 4,313 6-063 4,313 4,313 4,313 4,313 6,063 4,523 4,733 4,313 4.313 4.313 4,733 4,313 4,313 4,95? 4-313 4,313 (2,739) $94,011 SET YEAR 2985 L9OfG 198? 1968 2989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 3996 199? 3998 1999 2000 2001 2c0? 2003 2004 2005 20C6 2007 2008 2009 7010 2011 2912 2023 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO DIESEL FPRODOCCTION (Muh /yr ) 13,663 26.941 20,913 24,844 28,510 32,265 35,104 37,884 40,956 44,331 47,690 50,171 54,508 58,376 62,467 66,804 71,417 76,334 81,422 86,885 92,765 92,765 92,765 92.765 92,765 92,765 92,765 92,765 92,765 92.765 92,765 92,765 92,763 92,765 92,765 92,765 92,765 42.765 92,765 92,765 92,765 FUEL USE (1000 gal) 1,139 1,412 1,743 2,070 2,376 2.689 2,925 3,157 3.413 3,694 3,974 4,181 4,542 4,865 5,206 5,567 5,951 6-361 6,785 7-240 72730 7.730 7,730 74730 74730 72730 7,730 7.730 7.730 76730 74730 7.730 74730 7.730 7,730 7,730 7.730 7,730 7,730 7,730 7,730 FUEL PRICE ($/gal) 0.876 0.841 0.841 0.841 0.858 0-875 0.892 0.910 0.928 0.947 0.966 0.985 1.005 1.025 1.046 1.067 1.088 1.110 1.132 1.154 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 2.178 1.178 BASE CASE FUEL cost ($1000) 997 *1,187 "1,466 1,741) 2,038 "2,382 2,611 2.874 3,169 *3,499 3,839 4,120 4,565 4,987 5,443 5,937 6-474 7,059 7,680 8,359 9,103 9,103 9,103 9,103 9,103 9,103 9,103 9,103 9,103 9,103 9,103 9.103 9,103 9-103 9,103 9,103 9,103 9,103 9,103 9,103 9,103 ADDITION/REPLACEMENT SCHEDULE cost (MW)($1000) 0.00 Qo 0.00 3-920 5.60 1,750 2-50 1,750 2.50 1.750 2.50 (e) 0.00 1,750 2-50 i) 0.00 1,750 2-50 0 0.00 210 0.30 2.170 3.10 1,750 2-50 0 0.00 1,750 2.50 2-170 3.10 (+) 0.00 1,750 2.50 2.394 3.42 1,750 2.50 ) 0.00 3,920 5.60 1,750 2.50 1,750 2.50 1,750 2.50 [e) 0.00 1,750 2.50 Oo 0.00 1,750 2.50 4) 0.00 210 0.30 2.170 3.10 1,750 2.50 CY) 0.00 1,750 2-50 2-170 3.10 0 0.00 1,750 2.50 2,394 3.42 1.750 2.50 te) (12,627) O&M COST ($1000) 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 '.,p12 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1-012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 NPV: TOTAL SYSTEM CcOsT ($1000) 2,009 6.119 4,228 4,503 4,800 3.364 5,373 3,886 5,931 4511 5,061 7,302 7,327 5,999 8-205 9.119 7,486 9,821 11,086 11,121 10,115 14,035 11,865 11,865 11,865 10,115 11,865 10,115 11,865 10,115 10,325 12,285 11,865 10,115 11,865 12,285 10,115 11,865 12,509 11,865 10,135 (12,627) $165,819 9ET YEAR 1985 19R6 1987 1988 1989 1990 1992 2992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2003 290? 2003 2904 2005 2006 2007 2008 7009 2010 2013 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 7017 2018 2019 7020 202} 2022 2023 2024 2025 UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE A(1)--GEOTHERMAL TOTAL FLOW SYSTEM (ONE UNIT) GEOTHERMAL COMPONENT GEOTHERMAL CONSTRUCTION PROPUCTION (Muh /yr )oooo0o016,556 16,556 16,556 16,556 16.556 16,536 16,556 16,556 16,556 16,536 16,556 16,556 16.556 16,556 16.556 16,556 16,556 16,556 16,556 16,556 16,556 16,556 16,556 16,556 16.556 16-556 16,556 16,556 16,556 16,556 16,556 16,556 16,556 16,556 16,556 16,556 cosTs ($1000) 0 5,568 77454 2,948 12,857 Y)eooooocooooooocococoocoooeooocoooococoaoocoooooodDIESEL PRODUCTION (MWh/yr) 13,663 16,941 20-913 24,844 28,510 15,709 18,547 21,328 24,399 27.775 31,134 33.614 37,952 41,819 45,911 50,2748 54,862 59.778 64,866 70,329 76,209 76,209 76,209 76.209 76,209 76,209 76,209 76,209 76.209 76,209 76,209 76,209 76.209 76,209 76,209 76,209 76,209 76,209 76,209 76,209 76,209 DIESEL COMPONENT FUEL USE (1000 gal) 1,139 1,412 1,743 2,070 2-376 1,309 1,546 1.777 2,033 2.315 2,594 2,801 3,163 3,485 3,826 4,187 4,572 4,981 5,405 5,861 6,351 6.351 6,351 6-351 6-351 6,351 6,351 6,351 6,351 6,351 6,351 6,351 6-351 6,351 6,351 6,351 6.351 6,35) 6-351 6,351 6,351 FUEL PRICE ($/gal) 0.876 0.841 0.841 0.842 0.858 0.875 0.892 0.910 0.928 0.947 0.966 0.985 1.005 1.025 1.046 1.067 1.088 1.110 1.132 1.154 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT COST SCHEDULE ($1000) 997 1,187 1,466 1,741 2,038 1,145 1,379 1,618 1,888 2-192 2,506 2,760 3,179 3.573 4,000 4,466 4,973 5,528 6,118 6,766 74478 7,478 7,478 7,478 7,478 7.478 7,478 7,478 7,478 7,478 7,478 7.478 7,478 72478 7,478 7.478 7,478 7.478 7,478 7,478 7,478 (Mw) 0.00 0.00 5.60 2.50 2.50 0.00 0.00 2.50 0.00 2.50 0.00 2.80 0.60 2.50 0.00 2.50 3.10 2.50 0.00 3.42 2.50 0.00 5.60 2.50 2.50 0.00 0.00 2.50 0.00 2.50 0.00 2.80 0.60 2.50 0.00 2.50 3.10 2-50 0.00 3.42 2.50 COST ($1000) 0 3-920 1,750 1,750 0 (') 1,750 oO 1,750 (*) 1,960 420 1,750 0 1,750 2,170 1,750 (') 2,394 1,750 6 3,920 1,750 1,750 0 (1) 1,750 0 1,750 () 1,960 420 1,750 0 1,750 2.170 1,750 it) 2,394 1,750 (9) (12,102)(12,102) TOTAL COST ($1000) 997 $,107 3,216 3,491 2,038 1,145 3,129 1,618 3,638 2,192 4,466 3,180 4,929 3.573 5,750 6,636 6,723 5.528 8,512 8,516 7.478 11,398 9,228 9,228 7,478 7.478 9,228 7,478 9,228 7,478 9,438 7.898 9,228 7,478 9,228 9,648 9.228 7,478 9,872 9,228 7,478 TOTAL O&M cost ($1000) 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,275 1.275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 TOTAL SYSTEM cosT ($1000) 2.009 12,687 11,682 7,451 15,907 2,420 4,404 2,893 4,913 3,467 5,741 4.455 6,204 4,848 7,025 7,911 7,998 6,803 9,787 9-791 8,753 12,673 10,503 10,503 8,753 8,753 10,503 8.753 10,503 8,753 10,713 9,173 10,503 8,753 10,503 10,923 10,503 8,753 11,147 10,503 8,753 (12,202) NPV:$168,321 LET YEAR 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 21993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 7000 200} 2002 20233 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 ANDY201? 2013 2014 2015 7016 2017 2018 2019 2020 202) 2022 2023 2024 2025 UNALASKA/DUTCH HAR3OR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE A(2).-GROTHERMAL TOTAL FLOW SYSTEM (TWO UNITS) GPOTHERMAL COMPONENT DIESEL COMPONENT GEOTHERMAL CONSTRUCTION PRODUCTION (Muln/yr)eoooo$c$o29,039 33,113 33-113 33,113 33,113 33,113 33-313 33,113 33-113 33,113 33,113 33,113 33.113 33,113 33,113 33,1213 33,113 33-113 33,113 33,113 33,113 33,113 33,113 33,113 33-113 33,113 33¢113 33,113 13,113 33,113 33-1)3 33-113 33.113 33,113 33,133 33,113 FILE:A2RCONL} COSTS ($1000) 9 5,568 7,832 4,536 14,095 Oo ooooooococooo0oocooooococooceocoooocooooocoocoo0o0oo°9oDIESEL PRODUCTION (MwWh/yr) 13,663 16,941 20,913 24,844 28,510 34227 1,991 4.771 7,843 11,218 14,577 17,058 21,396 25,263 29,354 33,692 38,305 43,221 48,309 53,772 59.652 59,652 59-652 59,652 59,652 59,652 59,652 39.652 59,652 59,652 59,652 59,652 59,652 59,652 59,652 59,652 59,652 59,652 59,652 39,652 59,652 FUEL USE (1000 gal) 1,139 1.412 1,743 2-070 2,376 269 166 398 654 935 1,215 1,422 1,783 2.105 2-446 2,808 3,192 3.602 4,026 4.481 4,971 4,97) 4,971 4,971 4,971 4,97] 4,971 4,971 4,971 4.971 4,97) 4,971 4,971 4,971 4,971 4,971 4,971 4,97. 4,971 4,971 4,971 FUEL PRICE ($/gal) 0.876 0.84) 0.841 0.842 0.858 0.875 0.892 0.910 0.928 0.947 0.966 0.985 1.005 1.025 1.046 1.067 1.088 2.110 1.132 1.154 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 FUEL ANDITION/REPLACEMENT COST SCHEDULE ($1000) 997 1,187 1,466 1,741 2,038 235 148 362 607 885 1,173 1,401 1,792 qeaee/558 2.994 3-473 3,997 4,556 $.173 5,854 5,854 5,854 5,854 5,854 5,854 5,854 5,854 5,854 5.854 5,854 5,854 5,854 5.854 5,854 5,854 5,854 5,854 5,854 5.854 5.854 (Mw)eees8ooocooooooocoo$oee8@NONONOGDOCOONNUWUOSOeaooudcoouuvn.waoO2.50 COsT ($1000) 1,750 i) 1-960 420 1,750 1,750 0 2,170 1,750 1,750 644 1,750 0 (11,402)(11,402) TOTAL Cost ($1000) 997 5.107 3,216 3.492 2,038 235 148 362 2-357 885 3,133 1,821 34542 3-908 2,558 5-164 5,223 5,747 5-200 6,923 5,854 9,774 7,604 7,604 5,854 5,854 5-854 5.854 7,604 5,854 7,814 6,274 7,604 74604 5,854 8.024 7,604 7,604 6,498 7,604 5,854 TOTAL O&M COST ($1000) 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1.275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1.2758 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 NPV: TOTAL SYSTEM COST ($1000) 2,009 11,687 12,060 9,039 17,145 1,510 1,423 1,637 3,632 2-160 4,408 3,096 4,817 5.183 3,833 6,439 6,498 7,022 6.475 8,198 74129 12,049 8,879 8,879 7,129 7,129 72129 74129 8,879 74129 9,089 7.549 8,879 8,879 7-129 9,299 8,879 8,879 7,773 8,879 7,129 (11,402) $144,204 SET YEAR 1985 1986 1987 1988 1929 19990 1993 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 7006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 e016 2017 2018 2019 2029 202) 2022 2023 2024 2025 UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE A(3)--GEOTHERMAL TOTAL FLOW SYSTEM (THREE UNITS) GROTHERMAL COMPONENT GEOTUERMAL CONSTRUCTION PRODUCTION (Muh /yr )ooo0o029,039 31,593 34,096 36,860 39,898 42,921 49,669 49,669 49,669 49,669 49,669 49,669 49,669 49,669 49,669 49,669 49,669 49,669 49,669 49,669 49,669 49,669 49,669 49,669 49,669 49,669 49.669 49,669 49,669 49,669 49,669 49,669 49,669 49,669 49,669 49,669 Costs ($1000) 0 5.568 8,210 6.124 15,333 0 eooooocoocoooececooooeocoooocooocoocooco9dnsDIESEL PRODUCTION (MWh/yr) 13,663 16,941 20,913 24,844 28,510 3,227 3,510 3,788 4,096 42433 4,769 502 4,839 8,707 12,798 17,135 21,748 26,665 31,753 37-216 43,096 43,096 43,096 43,096 43,096 43,096 43,096 43,096 43,096 43,096 43,096 43,096 43,096 43,096 43,096 43,096 43,096 43,096 43,096 43,096 43,096 DIESEL COMPONENT FUEL USE (1000 gal) 1,139 1,432 1,743 2,070 2.376 269 293 316 341 369 397 42 403 726 1,066 1,428 1,812 2/222 2,646 3-101 3,591 3,591 3,591 3,591 3,591 3,591 3,591 3-591 3,591 3,591 3-591 3.591 3.591 3,591 3,591 3,591 3,591 3.59) 3,592 3,591 3,591 FUEL PRICE ($/gal) 0.876 0.841 0.842 0.841 0.858 0.875 0.892 0.910 0.928 0.947 0.966 0.985 1.005 1.025 1.046 1.067 1.088 1.110 1.132 1.154 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT COST SCHEDULE ($1000) 997 1,187 1,466 1,741 2,038 235 (Mw) 0.00 0.00 5.60 2-50 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.50 0.30 3.10 0.00 2.50 0.00 3.10 2.50 2.50 3.42 0.00 0.00 5.60 2.50 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.50 0.30 3.10 0.00 2.50 9.00 3.10 2.50 2.50 3.42 0.00 COsT ($1000) 0 3-920 1,750 1,750 1,750 210 2,170 .0 1,750 0 2-170 1,750 1,750 2-394 o [') (10,527)(10-527) TOTAL Cost ($1000) 997 5,107 3,216 3,491 2,038 235 261 287 317 2-100 594 2,211 405 2,494 1,115 3,693 3.722 4,216 5,389 3,580 4,229 8,149 5,979 5,979 4,229 4,229 4,229 4,229 4,229 5,979 4,439 6.399 4,229 5.979 4,229 6,399 5,979 5,979 6,623 4,229 4,229 TOTAL O&M cost ($1000) 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1-275 1,275| 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1.275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 TOTAL SYSTEM COST ($1000) 2-009 11,687 12,438 10,627 18,383 1,510 1,536 1,562 1,592 3,375 1,869 3,486 1,680 3,769 2,390 4,968 4,997 5,491 6,664 4,855 5,504 9,424 7,254 74254 5,504 5,504 5,504 5,504 5,504 7,254 5,714 7,674 5,504 7.254 5,504 7.674 76254 74254 7,898 5,504 5,504 (10,527) -NPV:$124,671 6€T UNALASKA/DUTCH HARDOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE A(4)--GEROTHERMAL TOTAL FLOW SYSTEM (FOUR UNITS) GEOTHERMAL COMPONENT DIESEL COMPONENT TOTAL TOTAL GHOTHERMAL CONSTRUCTION DIESEL FUEL FUEL FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT TOTAL O&M SYSTEM PRONUCTZON COSTS PRODUCTION USE PRICE COST SCHEDULE :COST cost cost COST (Muh/yr)($1000)(MWh/yr)(1000 gal)($/gal)($1000)(Mw)($1000)($1000)($1000)($1000) 0 0 13,663 1/139 0.876 997 0.00 °997 1,012 2,009 ty)5,568 16,942 1,412 0.841 1,187 0.00 3,920 5,107 1,012 11,687 0 8,588 20-913 1,743 0.841 1,466 5.60 1,750 3,216 1,012 12,816 )7,712 24,844 2-070 0.841 1,741 2.50 1.750 3,491 1,012 12,215 0 16,571 28,510 2,376 0.858 2,038 2.50 0 2,038 1,012 19,621 29,039 0 3,227 269 0.875 ,235 0.00 )235 1,275 1,510 31,593 0 3,510 293 0.892 261 0.00 0 261 1,275 1,536 34,096 0 3,788 316 0.910 287 0.00 0 287 1,275 1,562 36.860 0 4,096 341 0.928 317 0.00 0 317 1,275 1,592 39,898 0 4,433 369 0.947 350 0.00 ()350 1,275 1/625 42,922 0 4,769 397 0.966 "384 0.00 210 594 1,275 1,869 45.154 )5,017 418 0.985 412 0.30 2.170 2,582 1,275 3,857 49,058 0 5,45)454 1.005 45?3.10 0 457 1,275 1-732 32,538 7)5,838 486 1.025 1499 0-00 1,750 2,249 1,275 3,524 56,220 0 6,247 521 1.046 544 2.50 1,750 2-294 1,275 3,569 66,226 0 379 48 1.067 51 2.50 420 471 1,275 1,746 66-226 fr)5,192 433 1.088 47i 0.60 .1,750 2,221 1,275 3,496 66,226 0 10,108 842 1.110 935 2.50 1,750 2,685 1,275 3,960 66,226 0 15,196 1,266 1.132 1,433 2.50 2,394 3,827 1/275 5,102 66,226 0 20,660 1,722 1.154 1,988 3.42 1,750 3,738 1,275 5,013 66,226 0 26-540 2-212 1.178 2,604 2.50 0 2,604 1,275 3,879 66,226 0 26,540 2,212 1.178 2,604 0.00 3,920 6,524 1,275 7,799 66,226 0 26-540 2,212 1.178 2,604 5.60 1,750 4,354 1,275 5,629 66,226 0 26,540 2,212 1.178 2,604 2.50 1,750 4,354 1.275 5,629 66,226 |0 26,540 2,212 1.178 2,604 2.50 0 2.604 1,275 3,879 66,226 0 26,540 2.212 1.178 2,604 0.00 0 2,604 1,275 3,879 66,226 0 26,540 2,212 1.178 2,604 0.00 )2,604 1,275 3,879 66,226 0 26,540 2,212 1.178 2,604 0.00 ()2.604 1,275 3,879 66,226 0 26,540 2,212 1.178 2,604 0.00 0 2,604 1,275 3,879 66,226 0 76,540 2,212 1.178 2.604 0.00 fs)2,604 1,275 3,879 66,226 0 26.540 2,212 1.178 2,604 0.00 210 2,614 1,275 4,089 66,226 0 26-540 2,212 1.178 2,604 0.30 2.170.44774 1.275 6,049 66.226 0 26,540 2,212 1.178 2,604 3.10 0 2,604 1/275 3,879 66-226 0 26-540 2,212 1.178 2.604 0.00 1,750 4,354 1,275 5,629 66,226 0 26,540 2,212 1.178 2,604 2.50 1,750 4-354 1,275 5,629 66,226 a)26,540 2,212 1.178 2,604 2.50 .420 3,024 1,275 4,299 66,226 0 26,549 2,212 1.178 2,604 0.60 1,750 4,354 1,275 5,629 66,726 0 26,540 2,212 1.178 2,604 2.50 1,750 4,354 1.275 5,629 66,226 0 26,540 2,212 1.178 2,604 2.50 2,394 4,998 1,275 6,273 65,226 0 76,540 2.212 1.178 2,604 3.42 1,750 4,354 1.275 5,629 66,226 0 26,540 2,212 1.178 2,604 2.50 0 2,604 1,275 3,879 (11,227)(11,227)(11,227) NPV:$110,447 OvT UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE A(5)- GEOTHERMAL TOTAL FLOW SYSTEM (FIVE UNITS) GEOTHERMAL COMPONENT DIESEL COMPONENT - --TOTAL TOTAL GEOTHERMAL CONSTRUCTION DIESEL FUEL FUEL FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT TOTAL O&M SYSTEM PRODUCTION COSTS PRODUCTION USE PRICE COST SCHEDULE cost COST CcosT COST {Mih/yr)($1000)(MWh/yr )(1000 gal)($/gal)($1000)(Mw)($1000)($1000)($1000)($1000) 0 0 13,663 1,139 ©0.876 997 0.00 )997 1,012 2,009 Qo 5.568 16.941 1,412 0.841 21,187 0.00 3.920 5.107 1,012 11,687 0 8,966 20,913 1,743 0.842 1,466 5.60 1,750 3,216 1,012 |13,194 9 9,300 24,844 2,070 0.841 1.741 2-50 1,750 3-491 1,012 13,803 fe)17,809 28,510 2.376 0.858 2,038 2.50 QO 2,038 1,012 20.859 29,929 0 34227 269 0.875 235 0.00 0 235 1,275 1,510 32,593 0 3,510 293 0.892 261 0.00 0 261 1.275 1,536 34.096 te)3.788 316 0.910 287 0.00 i?)287 1-275 1,562 36,860 0 4,096 341 0.928 317 0.00 0 317 1,275 1,592 39,898 Qo 4.433 369 0.947 350 0.00 CY)350 1.275 1,625 42,92}0 4,769 397 0.966 384 0.00 210 594 1,275 1,869 45.154 Q 5-017 418 0.985 412 0.30 420 832 1.275 2,107 49,058 ie)5-451 454 1.005 457 0.60 1,750 2,207 1,275 3,482 52,538 0 5,838 486 1.025 499 2.50 i)499 1,275 1,774 56,220 0 6,247 521 1.046 544.0.00 1,750 2,294 1,275 3,569 60.124 te)6.680 557 1.067 594 2.50 420 1,014 1,275 2.289 64,276 0 76142 595 1.088 647 0.60 1,750 2,397 1.275 3.672 68,701 (¢)7.633 636 2.110 706 2.50 1,750 2,456 1,275 3-731 73,280 0 8,142 679 1.132 768 2.50 27394 34162 21,275 4,43782,782 [)4,103 342 1.154 -395 3.42 1.750 2-145 1,275 3.420 82,782 0 9,983 832 1.178 980 2.50 0 980 1,275 2.255 82,782 iY)9,983 832 1.178 980 0.00 3,920 4,900 1,275 6.175 82,782 0 9,983 832 1.178 980 5.60 1,750 2-730 2.275 4,005 82,782 i!)9,983 832 1.178 980 2.50 1.750 22730 1,275 4,005 82,782 0 9,983 832 1.178 980 2.50 0 980 1,275 2/255 82,782 0 9.983 832 1.178 980 0.00 t+)980 1,275 2,255 82,782 iY)9,983 832 1.178 980 0.00 0 980 1,275 2-255 82,782 0 9,983 832 1.178 980 0.00 i)980 1,275 2.255 @2,722 [e)9,983 832 1.178 980 0.00 0 980 1,275 2-255 82,782 iY)9,983 83?1.378 980 0.00 0 980 1.6275 2.255 82.782 te)9,983 832 1.178 980 0.00 210 1,190 1.275 2,465 £2,782 te)9-983 832 1.178 980 0.30 420 1,400 1.275 2-675 82,782 0 9,983 832 1.278 980 0.60 1.750 2,730 1,275 4,005 82,782 Qo 9.983 832 1.178 980 2.50 QO 980 16275 2.255 22,782 0 9,983 832 1.178 980 0.00 1,750 2.730 1,275 4,005 82,782 0 9,983 832 1.178 980 -2.50 420 1,400 1,275 2,675 82.732 ie)9,983 832 1.178 980 0.60 1,750 2,730 1,275 4,005 82,782 (')9,983 832 1.178 980 2.50 1,750 2.730 1.275 4-005 82,782 te)9,983 832 1.178 980 2.50 2.394 3.374 1,275 4,649 82,782 9 9,983 832 1.178 980 3.42 1,750 2.730 1.275 4,005 82,782 0 9,983 832 1.178 980 2.50 oO 980 1,275 2,255 (10.177)(10,177)(10,177) NPV:$98,919 TvI YEELR 1985 L986 1987 21988 1989 1990 1991 199? 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2092? 2093 2004 2005 2006 200? 2008 2909 2019 2022 POL2 2027 2914 2075 2916 2017 2018 2929 2020 2021 2022 2023 29024 2025 UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE A(6)----GEOTHERMAL TOTAL FLOW SYSTEM (SIX UNITS) GROTHERMAL COMPONENT GEOTHERMAL CONSTRUCTION EPQMUCTION (MIN /yr )ooo0029,039 31,593 34,096 36,860 39,898 42,921 43,154 49,058 52,338 56,220 60,324 64,276 68,701 73,280 78.197 83,489 33,489 33,489 83,489 83,489 83,489 83,489 B4,48¢ 83,489 83.489 83,489 63,489 23,489 83,489 83,489 83,489 83,489 83,489 83,489 83,489 costs ($1000) 0 3,568 9,344 10,888 19,047 0 eooooooocoocooocoonocooceoecooooooocoooooeoooceEeDIESEL PRODUCTION (Muh/yr ) 13,663 16,941 20,913 24,844 28,510 3-227 3,510 3,788 4,096 4,433 4,769 5,017 5,431 5,838 6.247 6,680 77142 7,633 8.142 8,689 9,277 9,277 9,277 9.277 9,277 9.277 9,277 9.277 9,277 9.277 9,277 9.277 9,277 9,277 9,277 9.277 9,277 9.277 9,277 9,277 9,277 DIESEL COMPONENT FUEL USE (1000 gal) 1,139 1,412 1,743 2,070 2,376 269 293 316 341 369 397 418 454 486 521 557 595 636 679 724 773 773 773 773 773 173 773 773 773 773 773 773 773 773 773 773 773 773 773 773 773 FUEL PRICE ($/gal) 0.876 0.841 0.841 0.641 0.858 0.875 0.892 0.910 0.928 0.947 0.966 0.985 1.005 1.025 1.046 1.067 1.088 1.110 1.132 1.154 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT COST SCHEDULE ($1000) 997 1.187 1-466 1.741 2,038 235 261 287 317 350 384 412 457 499 544 594 647 706 768 836 910 910 910 910 910 910 910 910 910 910 910 910 910 910 910 910 910 910 910 910 910 (MW) 0.00 0.00 5.60 2.50 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.30 0.60 0.00 0.00 2.50 3.10 0.00 2.50 3.42 2.50 0.00 5.60 2.50 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.30 0.60 0.00 0.00 2.50 3.10 0.00 2.50 3.42 2.50 COST ($1000) 0 3.920 1,750 1,750 oooo0o°00 (9,039) TOTAL cost ($1000) 997 5,107 3,216 3.491 2,038 235 261 287 317 350 594 832 457 499 2-294 2.764 647 2,456 3,162 2,586 910 4,830 2-660 2,660 910 910 910 910 910 910 1,120 1,330 910 910 2,660 3.080 910 2,660 34304 2-660 910 (9-039) TOTAL O&M Cost ($1000) 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,275 1,275 1.275 1,275 1.275 1,275 1,275 1.275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1.275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 TOTAL SYSTEM cosT ($1000) 2,009 11,687 13.572 15,391 22,097 1,510 1,536 1,562 1,592 1,625 1,869 2,107 1,732 1,774 3,569 4,039 1,922 34731 4,437 3,861 2-185 6,105 3,935 3,935 2-185 2,185 2,185 2,185 2,185 2.185 2,395 2,605 2,185 2,185 3,935 4,355 2,185 3,935 4,579 3,935 2-185 (9,039) NPV:$100,034 evi UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE 3(1)---GEOTHERMAL BINARY SYSTEM (ONE UNIT) GEOTHERMAL COMPONENT DIESEL COMPONENT GEOTUERMAL CONSTRUCTION PRODUCTION (Muin/yr}ooooo°o26,411 26,411 ?6,4)1 26/411 26,411 26,411 26.411 26,411 26,411 76,411 76.411 26.411 26,411 26,411 26,412 26-411 26,411 26,41) 26.411 26-41} "6,411 26,411 76,411 26-41) 26,411 26,413 26,41) 26,411 26,411 26,411 26,411 26,411 26,411 26,411 26.431 26-411 CosTs ($1000) 0 5-568 8,398 6,913 15,502 ()eoooooocooocoodcooocoocoococooocoooc0oscooceocoocsoDIESEL PRODUCTION (Muh/yr) 13,663 16-94] 20,913 24,844 28,510 5,854 8,692 11.473 14,544 17,920 21,279 23,759 28,097 31,964 36,056 40,393 45,006 49.923 $5,011] 60.474 66,354 66,354 66,354 66,354 66,354 66,354 66,354 66,354 66,354 66,354 66,354 66,354 66,354 66,354 66,354 66,354 66,354 66.354 66,354 66,354 66,354 FUEL USE (1000 gal) 1-139 1,412 1,743 2-070 26376 488 724 956 1,212 1,493 1.773 1,980 2,341 2-664 3,005 3,366 3,751 4,160 4,584 5.039 5,529 5.529 5,529 5,529 5,529 5,529 5-529 3,529 5,529 5.529 5-529 9-529 5-529 5,529 5,529 5-529 5,529 5,529 5,529 5.529 5,529 FUEL PRICE ($/gal) 0.876 0.641 0.841 0.841 0.858 0.875 0.892 0.910 0.928 0.947 0.966 0.985 1.005 2.025 1.046 1.067 1.088 2.110 1.132 1.154 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 2.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 FUEL ADDITION/REPI.ACEMENT COST SCHEDULE ($1000) 997 1,187 1,466 1,741 2,038 427 646 870 1,125 1,414 1-713 1,951 2.353 att3,142 3.590 4,080 4,616 5,189 5,818 6-511 6,511 6,511 6,511 6,512 6,511 6/511 6.511 6,511 6-511 6,511 6,511 6,511 6,511 6,511 6,511 6-511 6-511 6-511 6,511 6,511 (mv) 0.00 0.00 5.60 2.50 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.50 0.00 2.50 0.30 3.10 0.00 2.50 2.50 0.60 2.50 2.50 3.42 2-50 0.00 5.60 2.50 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.50 0.00 2.50 0.30 3.10 0.00 2.50 2.50 0.60 2-50 2.50 3-42 2.50 COsT ($1000) 0 3,920 1,750 1,750 1,750 0 1,750 210 2,170 0 1,750 2,750 420 1,750 1,750 2,394 1,750 fe) (12-627)(12,627) TOTAL CcosT ($1000) 997 5-107 3,216 3,491 2.038 427 646 2,620 1,125 34164 1,923 4.121 2-353 4,481 4,892 4,010 5,830 6,366 7,583 7,568 6,511 10,431 8,261 8,261 6,511 6-511 6,511 8,261 6,511 8.261 6,721 8,681 6,511 8,261 8,261 6,931 8,261 8,261 8,905 8.261 6,511 TOTAL O&M cost ($1000) 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1.275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1-275 1,275 1.275 1,275 1,275 1.275 1,275 1,275 1,275 TOTAL SYSTEM COsT ($1000) 2,009 11,687 12,626 11,416 18,551 1,702 1,921 3-895 2,400 4,439 3,198 5-396 3,628 5-756 6,167 5-285 7,105 7,641 8,858 8,843 7.786 11.706 9,536 9,536 7,786 7,786 7.786 9,536 7,786 9,536 7,996 9,956 7,786 9.536 9-536 8.206 9.536 9,536 10,180 9.536 7.786 (12,627) NPV:$159,301]evi YEAR 1985 1986 198? 1988 1989 1990 1991 2992 1993 1994 1995 1996 y9q7 1998 1999 2900 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 7008 2009 POLO 2011 2012 2013 7014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2022 2022? 2023 2024 2025 UNALASKA/DUTCH HARSOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO GEOTHERMAL COMPONENT GEOTHERMAL PRODUCTION (MVh/yr)oooo9o29,039 31,593 34,096 36,860 39,898 42,921) 45.154 52,823 52,823 52,823 32,823 52,822 32,823 52,823 52,623 52,823 32,823 52,823 52,823 52,823 52,623 52,823 52,823 52,823 52,823 52,823 52,823 52,823 52,873 52,823 52,823 52,823 22,823 52,823 3?,823 32,823 CONSTRUCTION COSTS ($1000) 0 5,568 9,720 12,465 19,382 0 oooooocooocooscoocooococoooooocoococoooooo°oosoALTERNATIVE 8(2)--GEOTHERMAL BINARY SYSTEM (TWO UNITS) DIESEL PRODUCTION (MWh/yr) 13,663 16,941 20.913 24,844 28,510 3,227 3,510 3.788 4,096 4,433 4,769 5,017 1,686 5-553 9,644 13,982 18,595 23,511 28,599 34,062 39,942 39,942 39,942 39,942 39,942 39,942 39,942 39,942 39,942 39,942 39,942 39-942 39,942 39,942 39,942 39,942 39,942 39,942 39,942 39,942 39,942 DIESEL COMPONENT FUEL USE (1000 gal) 1,139 1.412 1,743 2,070 2-376 269 293 316 341 369 397 418 140 463 804 1,165 1,550 1,959 2,383 2,839 3,329 3,329 3,329 3,329 3,329 3,329 3-329 3-329 3,329 3,329 3,329 34329 34329 3.329 3,329 3-329 3,329 3,329 3,329 3,329 3,329 FUEL PRICE ($/gal) 0.876 0.841 0.842 0.841 0.858 0.875 0.892 0.910 0.928 0.947 0.966 0.985 1.005 1.025 1.046 1.067 1.088 1.110 1.132 1.154 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT COST SCHEDULE ($1000) 997 1,187 1,466 1,741 2-038 235 261 287 317 350 -384 412 141 474 840 1,243 1,686 2,174 2,697 3,277 3.920 3.920 3,920 3.920 3-920 3-920 3,920 3,920 3.920 3-920 3.920 3,920 3-920 3,920 3,920 3-920 3.920 3,920 3,920 3-920 3,920 (MW).8©©@©»©2©8@2»©@©&@8828oe..NONNWONNONDOOSDDONNUWUONONNWONNONOOCSOCOONNWOOviwouuvreOuvNuAwmwooedooovuunouvuvwouuroyuUaAwmwoecdoocoovuvunodonoooooooococoooooocoooncooooocoeocoocooooooocoosocost ($1000) 1,750 0 3,920 1,750 2,750 (10,702)(10,702) TOTAL cost ($1000) 997 5,107 3,216 3,491 2,038 235 261 287 317 350 2-344 832 1,891 24224 840 3,413 3,436 3,924 3,341 5.027 3-920 7,840 5.670 5,670 3-920 3-920 3,920 3-920 3,920 3,920 5,880 4,340 5,670 5,670 3,920 6,090 5,670 5,670 4,564 5-670 3.920 TOTAL O&M cosT ($1000) 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1-275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 NPVs: TOTAL SYSTEM cost ($1000) 2,009 11,687 13,948 16,968 22,432 1,510 1,536 1,562 1,592 1,625 3,619 2,107 3,166 3,499 2-115 4,688 4,711 5.199 4,616 6,302 5,195 9,115 6,945 6.945 5,195 5,195 §,195 5.195 5,195 5,195 74155 5,615 6,945 6.945 §,195 7.368 6,945 6.945 5,839 6.945 5,195 (10,702) $131,434 al UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE B(3)--GEOTHERMAL BINARY SYSTEM (THREE UNITS) GEOTHEPMAL COMPONENT DIESEL COMPONENT mers we ee ----:TOTAL TOTAL "CONSTRUCTION DIESEL 'FUEL FUEL FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT TOTAL O&M SYSTEM °,COSTS PRODUCTLON USE PRICE COST SCHEDULE COST COsT COST COST YEAR (Min/yr )($1000)(Mvin/yr }(1000 gal)($/gal)($1000)(Mw)($1000)($1000)($1000)($1000) 1985 0 i¢)13,663 1,139 0.876 997 0.00 °()997 1,012,2,009 1986 0 5,568 16,941 1,412 0.841 1,187 0.00 3,920 5,107 .2,012 11,687 1987 0 11,042 20,913 1,743 0.841 1,466 5.60 1,750 3,216 1,012 15,270 19An8 9Q 18,018 24,844 2,070 0.641 1,741 2-50 1,750 3,491 1,012 22,521 1989 Q 23,264 28,510 24,376 0.858 2,038 2.50 0 2,038 1,012 26,314 1990 79,039 te)3.227 269 0.875 235 0.00 (e)235 1,275 1,510 199}32,592 0 3,510 293 0.892 261 0.00 ts)261 1,275 1,536 3992 34,096 ()3,788 316 0.910 287 0.00 (')287 1,278 1,562 2993 36,860 0 4,096 341 0.928 317 0.00 0 317 1,275 1,592 1994 39,898 (6)4,433 369 0.947 350 0.00 0 350 1,275 1,625 1995...42,921 0 4,769 397 0.966 384 0.00 210 594 1,275 1,869 1996 45,154 0 8,017 418 0.985 412 0.30 420 832 1.275 2-107 199?49,058 (°)5,452 454 1.005 457 0.60 1,750 2,207 1,275 3,482 £998 32,538 (9)5,838 486 1.025 499 '2.50 0 499 1,275 1,774 1999 56,220 0 6,247 521 1.046 s44 0.00 1,750 2,294 1,275 3,569 2000 60,124 [)6,680 557 1.067 594 2.50 2.170 2-764 1,275 4,039 2001 64,276 0 7el42 595 1.088 647 3.10 0 647 1,275 1,922 2002 68,70)0 7,633 636 1.110 706 0.00 1.750 2,456 1,275 3,731 2003 78,840 (¢)2,582 215 1.132 244 2.50 2,394 2,638 1,275 3,913 2004 78,840 0 8,045 670 1.154 774 3.42 1,750 2,524 1,275 3,799 2005 78,840 0 13,925 1,160 1.178 1,366 2.50 0 1,366 1,275 2,641 2006 78,840 0 13,925 1,160 1.178 1,366 0.00 3,920 5,286 1,275 6,561 2907 78,840 0 13,925 1,160 1.178 1,366 5.60 1,750 3,116 1,275 4,391 2008 78,840 0 13,925 1,160 1.178 1,366 2.50 1,750 3,116 1,275 4,391 2009 78,840 0 13,925 1,160 1.178 1,366 2.50 t*)1,366 1,275 2,641 2010 78,840 0 13,925 1,160 1.178 1,366 0.00 0 1,366 1,275 2,641 20t1 78,840 0 13,925 1,160 1.178 1,366 0.00 0 1,366 1,275 2,641 2012 78.640 0 13,925 2,160 1.178 1,366 0.00 [0]1,366 1,275 2,641 2913 78,849 0 13,925 1,160 1.178 1,366 0.00 0 1,366 1,275 2,641 2O!14 78.840 0 13,925 1,160 1.178 1,366 0.00 0 1,366 1,275 2,641 2015 73,849 0 13,925 1,160 1.178 1,366 0.00 210 1,576 1,275 2,851 2936 78.840 0 13,925 1,160 1.178 1,366 0.30 420 1,786 1,275 3,061 PO?78,846 i?)13,925 1,160 1.178 1,366 0.60 1,750 3,116 1,275 4,391 2018 8,840 ie)13,925 1,260 1.178 1,366 2.50 0 1,366 1,275 2,641 2019 78,840 [e)13,925 1,160 1.378 1,366 0.00 1,750 3,116 1,275 4,391 2920 78,849 0 13,925 1,160 1.178 1,366 2.50 2-270 3,536 1,275 4,811 2021 79,840 0 13,925 1,260 1.178 1,366 3.10 0 1,366 1,275 2,641 2022 78,840 (?)13,925 1,160 1.378 1,366 0.00 1,750 3,116 1,275 4,391 2023 78,840 0 13,925 1,160 1.178 1,366 2.50 2,394 3,760 1,275 5,035 2024 "@,840 0 13,925 1,169 1.178 1,366 3.42 1,750 3,116 1,275 4,391 2925 78,840 0 13,925 1,160 1.178 1,366 2.50 0 1,366 1,275 2,641 (10,089)(10,089)(10,089) NPV:$115,829 Stl YEAR 1925 1986 1987 1988 1989 3990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 20c0 2cci 2002 2093 2004 2003 2006 2007 2008 2099 2019 201} P2212 2017 2014 2025 2026 2017 2018 2039 2020 202) 2022 2023 2024 2025 UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE 3{4)--GEOTHERMAL BINARY SYSTEM (FOUR UNITS) GEOTHERMAL COMPONENT GEOTHERMAL PPODUCTION CM /yr)oooo0 29,039 31,593 34,096 36,860 39,898 42,921 45,154 49,058 52,538 56,220 60,124 64,276 68,701 73,280 78,197 83,489 $3,489 83,489 83,489 83,489 83,489 83,489 813,489 83,489 83,489 83,489 53,4689 83,439 83,489 83,439 83,489 83,489 83,489 83,489 83,489 83,489 CONSTRUCTION COSTS ($1000) 0 5.568 12,364 23,570 27,145 (e)ecoooococoooooscocooococooooooooocooooooooDIESEL PRODUCTION (MWh/yr) 13,663 16,941 20,913 24,844 28,510 3,227 3,510 3.788 4,096 4,433 4,769 5,017 5,451 5,838 6,247 6,680 7,142 7,633 8,142 8,689 9,277 9,277 9,277 9,277 9,277 9.277 9,277 9,277 9,277 9,277 9,277 9,277 9,277 9,277 9,277 9,277 9,277 9,277 9,277 9,277 9,27) DIESEL COMPONENT FUEL USE (1000 gal) 1,139 1.412 1,743 2.070 2,376 269 293 316 341 369 397 418 454 486 521 557 595 636 679 724 773 773 773 773 773 773 773 773 773 773 773 773 773 773 773 773 773 773 773 773 773 FUEL _PRICE ($/gal) 0.876 0.841 0.841 0.841 0.858 0.875 0.892 0.910 0.928 0.947 0.966 0.985 1.005 1.025 1.046 1.067 1.088 1.110 1.132 1.154 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 3.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 FUEL COST ($1000) 997 1,187 1,466 1,741 2.038 235 261 287 317 350 384 412 45? 499 544 594 647 706 768 836 910 910 910 910 910 910 910 910 910 910 910 910 910 910 910 910 910 910 910 910 910 ADDI TION/REPLACEMENT SCHEDULE cosT (mw)($1000) 0.00 ) 0.00 3,920 5-60 1,750 2.50 1,750 2.50 0 0.00 Q 0.00 0 0.00 Qo 0.00 QO 0.00 (*) 0.00 210 0.30 420 0.60 0 0.00 i) 0.00 1,750 2.50 420 0.60 1,750 2.50 1,750 2.50 2,394 3.42 1,750 2.50 0 0.00 3,920 $5.60 1,750 2.50 1.750 2.50 i) 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 ') 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 210 0.30 420 0.60 0 0.00 Oo 0.00 1,750 2.50 420 0.60 1,750 2.50 1,750 2.50 2-394 3.42 1.750 2-50 0 (9,127) TOTAL cost ($1000) 997 5,107 3,216 3,491 2,038 235 261. 287 317 350 594 832 457 499 2,294 1,014 2,397 2,456 3,162 2,586 910 4,830 2,660 2,660 910 910 910 910 910 910 1,120 1,330 910 910 2,660 1-330 2-660 2,660 3,304 2-660 910 (9,127) TOTAL O&M CcosT ($1000) 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1-275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 NPV: TOTAL SYSTEM cost ($1000) 2,009 11,687 16,592 28,073 30,195 1-510 1,536 1.562 1-592 1,625 1,869 2,107 1,732 1,774 3-569 2,289 34672 3-731 4.437 3,861 2-185 6-105 3,935 3,935 2,185 2-185 2,185 2,185 2.185 2.185 2-395 2,605 2,185 2.185 3,935 2,605 34935 3,935 4,579 3,935 2,185 (9,127) $120,556 9vT UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE C(1)--HYNROELECIRIC SYSTEM 2FOQUER COMPONENT HYDROPOWER CONSTRUCTION PRODUCTION (mvln/yr)ooo°3,114 3.114 3,114 34114 3,114 3.114 3.114 3-114 3,114 3,114 3,114 3,114 3.114 3.114 3,114 3.14 3,114 3.124 3,114 3-214 3,114 2334 3.114 3.174 3.114 3,134 3,114 3,114 3,114 3,114 3-114 3.114 3,114 3,114 3,114 3.114 3-114 COSTS ($1000)uisuweoo0ecoeoocoooooocooscooecoocooooocoooosooooocoooooroco°oDIESEL, PRODUCTION (Muh/yr) 13,663 16,941 20,913 24,844 25,396 29,151 31,990 34,770 37,842 41,217 44,576 47,057 51,394 55,262 59,353 63,690 68,303 73/220 78,308 83.771 89,651 89.65) 89,652 89.651 89,651 89,651 89,651 89,651 89,651 89,651 89,651 89,651 89,651 89,651 89,65) 89,651 89,651 89,651 89,651 89,65) 89,651 FUEL USE (1000 aal) 1,139 1,412 1,743 2,070 2-116 2,429 2,666 2,898 3.153 3-435 3,715 3-92) 4,283 4,605 4,946 5,308 5,692 6,102 6,526 6.981 7,471 7eA7d 7.471 7.471 7,471 7,471 7,471 7-471 7,473 7471 747 7471 7-471 7,471 7,471 7247) 7471 7,471 7,471 7eA71 7,47 DIESEL COMPONENT FUEL PRICE ($/gal) 0.876 0.84) 0.84) 0.841 0.858 0.875 0.892 0.910 0.928 0.947 0.966 0.985 1.005 1.025 1.046 1.067 1.088 1.110 1.132 1.154 1.178 1.178 1.178 3.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT COST SCHEDULE ($1000) 997 1,187 1,466 1,741 1.815 2.125 2,379 2,638 2,928 3.253 3,588 3,864 4,304 Mates5,172 5,661 6,192 6,771 7,386 8,059 8,797 8.797 8,797 8,797 8,797 8,797 8.797 8,797 8,797 8,797 8,797 8,797 8,797 8.797 8,797 8,797 8,797 8.797 8,797 8,797 8,797 (MW) 0.00 0.00 $.60 2.50 2-50 0.00 2.50 0.00 2.50 0.00 2.50 0.30 3.10 0.00 2.50 2.50 0.60 2.50 2.50 3.42 2.50 0.00 5.60 2.50 2.50 0.00 2.50 0.00 2.50 0.00 2.50 0.30 3.10 0.00 2-50 2-50 0.60 2.50 2-50 3.42 2.50 COsT ($1000) 0 3,920 1,750 1,750 0 1,750 0 1,750 0 1,750 210 2,170 0 1,750 1,750 420 1,750 1.750 2,394 1,750 0 3,920 1,750 1,750 0 1,750 0 1,750 0 1,750 210 2,170 (') 1,750 1,750 420 1,750 1,750 27394 1,750 0 (13,064)(13,064) TOTAL CcosTr ($1000) 99? 5,107 3.216 3,491 1,615 3,875 2.379 4,388 2,928 5,003 3,798 6,034 4,304 6,471 6,922 6,081 7,942 8,521 9,780 9,809 8,797 12,717 10,547 10,547 8,797 10,547 8,797 10,547 8.797 10,547 9,007 10,967 8,797 10,547 10,547 9,217 10,547 10,547 11,191 10,547 8,797 TOTAL O&M COST ($1000) 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 2,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 1,042 TOTAT, SYSTEM cosT ($1000) 2-009 6,119 4,228 10,074 2,857 4,917 3,421 5,430 3-970 6,045 4,840 7,076 5,346 7,513 74964 7123 8,984 9,563 10,822 10,851 9,839 13.759 11,589 11,589 9,839 11,589 9,839 11,589 9,839 11,589 10,049 12,009 9,839 11,5869 11,589 10,259 11,589 11,589 12,233 11,589 9,839 (13,064) NPV:$165,839 Lvl YEAR 1935 :OR6 2987 1988 1929 1999 299) 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 199? 1998 1999 200 2001 2002 2003 2604 2004 20C6 200? 2506 2009 2919 201) 2012 2013 P0054 2025 2016 2017 20:e@ 2019 2929 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 HYDPOPCMER HYDROLOWTR PRODUCTION (Muin/yr) 2/174 2,174 24194 2,174 2-174 2.374 26374 2.374 26114 2,374 2,174 2,174 2,174 2.174 2,174 2.174 2,174 0174 2,174 2.174 2,174 2-174 2,474 2,174 2,374 2.274 2el?4 2-174 2,174 2.174 20174 UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS HTGH GROWTH SCENARIO ALTFRNATIVE C(2)--HYDROELECTRIC SYSTEM ($1000) [e) 0 0 2 0 (°) [e) 0 0 9 i?) i) i) Q 0 9 9 (*) 0 0 9 Q 0 (¢) fe) 0 0 0 0 0 90 0 0 0 0 Q 0 0 0 QO 0 1,76 DIESEL PRODUCTION (MUb/yr) 13,663 16,94} 20,913 24,844 26,336 30,091 32,930 35,710 38,782 42,157 45,516 47,997 52,334 56,202 60,293 64,630 69,243 74,160 79.248 84,71) 90,59] 90,591 90,592 90,591 90,591 90-591 90,591 90,59! 90,591 90,591 90,591 90,592 90,59] 90.59) 90,593 90,59) 90,591 90,591 90,591 90,591 90,591 DIESET,COMPONENT FUEL USE (1000 gal) 1,139 1,412 1,743 2,070 2,195 2.508 2,744 2,976 3,232 3.513 3,793 4,000 4,683 5,024 5,386 5,770 6,180 6-604 7,059 7,549 7.549 7,549 7.549 7,549 7,549 7,549 7,549 7,549 76549 7,549 7,549 7,549 7.549 7,549 7,349 7,549 7,549 74549 7,549 7,549 FUEL PRICE ($/qgal) 0.876 0.841 0.841 0.841 0.858 0.875 0.892 0.910 0.928 0.947 0.966 0.985 2.005 1.025 1.046 1.067 1.088 1.110 1.132 1.154 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT COST SCHEDULE ($1000) 997 1,187 1,466 1,741 1,883 2,194 2,449 2.709 3,001 3,327 3,664 3,941 4,383 sect5,25 8,744 6,277 6,858 74475 8,150 8,890 8,890 8,890 8,890 8,890 8,890 8,890 8,890 8,890 8,890 8,890 8,890 8,890 8,890 8,890 8,890 8,890 8,890 8,890 8,890 8,890 (Mw) 0.00 0.00 5.60 2.50 2.50 2.50 0.00 0.00 2.50 0.00 2.50 0.30 3.10 2.50 0.00 2.50 3.10 0.00 2.50 3.42 2.50 0.00 5.60 2.50 2.50 2.50 0.00 0.00 2.50 0.00 2.50 0.30 3.10 2.50 0.00 2-50 3.10 0.00 2.50 3.42 2.50 COosT ($1000) te) 3.920 1,750 1,750 1,750 0 i!) 1,750 0 1,750 210 2-170 1-750 is) 1,750 2,170 i) 1.750 2,394 1,750 0 3,920 1,750 1,750 1-750 Q 0 1,750 0 1,750 210 2,170 1,750 (e) 1,750 2.170 te) 1-750 2.394 1,750 ) (12,802)(12,802) TOTAL cOsT ($1000) 997 5,107 3,216 3,491 3,633 22194 22449 4,459 3,001 5,077 3-874 6,111 6,133 4,801 7,004 74914 6,277 8,608 9,869 9,900 8,890 12,810 10,640 10,640 10,640 8,890 8,890 10,640 8,890 10,640 9,100 11,060 10,640 8,890 10,640 11,060 8.890 10,640 11,284 10.640 8,890 TOTAL O8M cosT ($1000) 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,032 1,032 1,032 1,032 1,032 1,032 1,032 1,032 1,032 1,032 1,032 1,032 1,032 1,032 1,032 1,032 1,032 1,032 1,032 1,032 1,032 1,032 1,032 1,032 1,032 1,032 1,032 1,032 1,032 1,032 1,032 1,032 1,032 1,032 1,032 1,032 1,032 TOTAL SYSTEM COST ($1000) 2,009 6.119 4,228 6,265 4,665 3,226 3,481 5,491 4,033 6,109 4,906 74143 7,165 5,833 8,036 8,946 7,309 9,640 10,901 10,932 9,922 13,842 11.672 11,672 11,672 9,922 9,922 11,672 9,922 11,672 10,132 12,092 11,672 9.922 11,672 12,092 9,922 11,672 12,316 11,672 9,922 (12,802) NPV:$164,080 Stl YELR 1985 1986 1937 1988 1989 1990 199° 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997? 1998 1999 #2000 2902 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2068 2009 2010 291} 201? 2013 7O14 2025 2016 201% 7018 2019 2920 2071 P00? 2024 2024 2025 UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE C(3)--HYDROELECTRIC SYSTEM HYDROPCVWER COMPONENT DIESEL COMPONENT HYDRONOWER CONSTRUCTION PRODUCTION (ah /yr) 5,288 5,288 5,288 5,288 5,288 5,288 5,288 5,288 5,288 5,288 5,288 3,288 5,288 3.288 vi<1DnaeeLee<MSaaoCOSTS ($1000)wOoOO06,38 ooooo0ocoooocooooooooecoocoeocoocooocooce0oceoonoDIESEL PRODUCTION (Mwh/yr) 13,663 16,941 20-913 24,844 23,222 26-977 29,816 32,596 35,668 39,043 42,492 44,883 49,220 53,088 57,179 61,516 66,129 71,046 76,134 81,597 87,477 87.477 87,477 87,477 87,477 87,477 87.477 87,477 87,477 87,477 87,477 87,477 87,477 87,477 87,47? 87-477 87,47? 87,477 87,477 87,477 87,477 FUEL USE (1000 gal) L139 1,412 1,743 2,070 1,935 2.248 2,485 2.716 2,972 3,254 3-533 3,740 4,102 44424 4,765 5-126 5,511 3,92) 6,344 6,800 7,290 7.290 7.290 74290 7-290 74290 74290 7,290 7-290 74290 74290 7,290 7,290 7,290 7,290 74290 7,290 7,290 7.290 7,290 7,290 FUEL PRICE ($/qal) 0.876 0.841 0.841 0.841 0.858 0.875 0.892 0.910 0.928 0.947 0.966 0.985 1.005 1.025 1.046 1.067 1.088 1.2110 1.132 1.154 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 2.178 1.178 2.178 1.178 FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT COST SCHEDULE ($1000) 997 1,187 1,466 1,741 1,660 1,967 2,217 2.473 2,760 3,081 3,413 3.685 4.122 4,535 4,982 5,467 5,995 6,570 7,181 7.850 8,584 8,584 8,584 8,584 8,584 8,584 8,584 8,584 8,584 8,584 8,584 8,584 8,584 8.584 8,584 8,584 8,584 8,584 8,584 8,584 8,584 (Mw) 0.00 0.00 5.60 2-50 2.50 0.00 2.50 0.00 2.50 0.00 2.50 0.30 3.10 0.00 2.50 2.50 0.60 2.50 2.50 3.42 2.50 0.00 5.60 2.50 2.50 0.00 2.50 9.00 2.50 0.00 2.50 0.30 3.10 0.00 2.50 2.50 0.60 2-50 2-50 3.42 2.50 CcosT ($1000) o 3.920 1,750© 1.750 0 1,750 Ce) 1,750 0 1,750 210 2.170 (*) 1,750 1,750 420 1,750 1,750 2,394 1,750 0 3.920 1,750 1,750 (?) 1,750 0 1,750 0 1,750 210 2,170 0 1,750 1,750 420 1,750 1,750 2,394 1.750 0 (13,064)(13,064) TOTAL COST ($1000) 997 5,107 3,216 3,491 1,660 3,717 2,217 44223 2.760 4,831 3,623 5,855 4,122 6,285 6,732 5,887 7,745 8,320 9,575 9,600 8,584 12,504 10,334 10,334 8,584 10,334 8,584 10,334 8,584 10,334 8,794 10.754 8,584 10,334 10,334 9,004 10,334 10,334 10,978 10,334 8,584 TOTAL OsM COST ($1000) 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 2,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 NPV: TOTAL SYSTEM 'COST ($1000) 2,009 6.119 4,228 10.890 2,722 4.779 3,279 5,285 3,822 5,893 4,685 6,917 5,184 74347 7,794 6,949 8,807 9,382 10,637 10,662 9,646 13,566 11,396 11,396 9,646 11,396 9,646 11,396 9,646 11,396 9,856 11,816 9,646 11,396 11,396 10,066 11,396 11,396 12.040 11,396 9,646 (13,064) $163,452 6bT APPENDIX D Construction Costs of Power System Alternatives GEOTHERMAL DEVELOPMENT COSTS---TOTAL FLOW SYSTEM (Thousand 1983 Dollars) ONE UNIT,2.1 MW NET OST1986 1987 1988 1989 TOTAL FIELD DEVELOFMENT COSTS (1983). Froduction well (1)3,957 oO oO o 3,957 Injection well (0).Qo QO 0 ce)ce) Well testing 394 '(8)oO oO 396 Direct operation and maintenance 942 450 4590 775 2,217 Froject administration/management 502 442 442 554 1,940 Start-up 0 Q ce)222 222 SUBTOTAL FIELD COSTS £5,397 $892 $892 $1,551 $8,732 FOWER FLANT COSTS Flant engineering and construction Q 378 1,588 1,058 3,024 Froductian pipeline i?)cs)120 0 120 Injection pipeline (8)Oo Q fe)ce) Spare parts t?)Q »a 60 40 Consulting and coordination 171 2il 211 251 B44 Start-up Q (9)ce)300 300 Insurance Q QO 137 137 274 SUBTOTAL FOWER PLANT COSTS $171 #589 $2,054 $1,806 $4,622 OTHER COSTS Road construction (3,973 ce)Q 5,973 Transmission line :0 (¢)ce)9,500 9,500 SUBTOTAL OTHER COSTS £0 $5,973 $0 $7,500 £15,473 TOTAL COSTS FOR ONE UNIT $5,568 $7,454 $2,948 £12,857 $28,827 GEOTHERMAL DEVELOFMENT .COSTS---TOTAL FLOW SYSTEM (Thousand £983 Dollars) TWO UNITS,4.2 MW NET FIELD DEVELOPMENT COSTS (1982) Froduction well (1) Injection well (@) Well testing Direct operation and maintenance Froject administration/management Start-up SUBTOTAL FIELD COSTS FOWER PLANT COSTS Flant engineering and construction Froduction pipeline Injection pipeline Spare parts Consulting and coordination Start-up Insurance SUBTOTAL POWER PLANT COSTS OTHER COSTS Road construction Transmission line SUBTOTAL OTHER COSTS TOTAL COSTS FOR TWO UNITS 1986 1987 1988 1989 TOTAL 3,957 ry )re)3,957ryoo00 396 oO o ra 396 542 450 450 775 2,217 502 442 442 554 1,940 0 0 oO 222 222 $5,397 $892 $892 $1,551 8,732 °756 3,176 2,116 6,048 0 oO 120 0 120reoOre00 0 oO 0 120 120 171 2110!oat 251 844r)0 *)420 420 0 re 137 137 274 $171 $967 $3,644 $3,044 $7,826 ry)5,973 0 re)5,973 o 0 re 9,500 9,500 $0 $5,973 $0 $9,500 $15,473 $5,568 $7,832 $4,536 $14,095 $32,031 "IST GEOTHERMAL DEVELOFMENT COSTS---TOTAL (Thousand 1983 Dollars) THREE UNITS,6.3 MW NET FIELD DEVELOPMENT COSTS (1983) Froduction well (1) Injection well (0) Well testing Direct operation and maintenance Froject administration/management Start-up SUBTOTAL FIELD COSTS FOWER FLANT COSTS Flant engineering and construction Froduction pipeline Injection pipeline Spare parts Consulting and coordination Start-up Insurance SUBTOTAL FOWER PLANT COSTS OTHER COSTS Road construction Transmission line SUBTOTAL OTHER COSTS TOTAL COSTS FOR THREE UNITS FLOW SYSTEM 1986 1987 1988 1989 TOTAL 3,957 0 oO 0 3,957 o 0 0 0 0 396 re 0 0 396 542 450 450 775 2,217 502 442 442 554 1,940 o o o 222 222 €5,397 #892 $892 $1,551 $8,732 0 1,134 4,764 3,174 9,072 Q Oo 120 0 120 0 0 o )0 )fs),0 180 180 171 211 211 251 844 0 0 0 540 540 0 )137 137 274 $171 $1,345 £5,232 £4,282 £11,030 0 5,973 0 0 5,973 o 0 0 9,500 9,500 $0 $5,973 #0 §©$9,500 $15,473 £5,568 $8,210 £6,124 $15,333 $35,235 cSt GEOTHERMAL DEVELOPMENT COSTS---TOTAL FLOW SYSTEM {Thousand 1983 Dollars) FOUR UNITS,8.4 MW NET FIELD DEVELOPMENT COSTS (1983) Froduction well (1) Injection well (0) Well testing Direct operation and maintenance Froject administration/management Start-up SUBTOTAL FIELD COSTS FOWER PLANT COSTS Flant engineering and construction Production pipeline Injection pipeline Spare parts Consulting and coordination Start-up Insurance SUBTOTAL FOWER PLANT COSTS OTHER COSTS Road construction Transmission line SUBTOTAL OTHER COSTS TOTAL.COSTS FOR FOUR UNITS 1986 1987 1988 1989 TOTAL 3,957 fs)0 o 3,957 0 o 0 0 a) 396 0 re)0 396 542 450 450 775 2,217 502 442 442 854 1,940 0 0 0 222 222 €5,397 $892 $092 $1,551 $8,732 0 1,512 6,352 4,232 12,098 0 o 120 0 120 0 )fe)fe)0 0 )0 240 240 171 211 "211 251 844 0 Q a 440 460fo0137137274 $171 $1,723 $6,820 $5,520 $14,234 o 5,973 0 0 5,973 0 0 0 97,500 9,500 $0 $5,973 $0 $9,500 $15,473 $5,568 $8,508 7,712 $16,571 $38,439 est GEOTHERMAL DEVELOPMENT COSTS---TOTAL FLOW SYSTEM (Thousand 1983 Dollars) FIVE UNITS,10.5 MW NET FIELD DEVELOPMENT COSTS (1983) Froduction well (1) Injection well (0) Well testing Direct operation and maintenance Froject administration/management Start-up SURTOTAL FIELD COSTS FOWER FLANT COSTS Flant engineering and construction Freaduction pipeline Injection pipeline Spare parts Consulting and coordination Start-up Insurance SUBTOTAL POWER FLANT COSTS OTHER COSTS Road construction Transmission line SUBTOTAL OTHER COSTS TOTAL COSTS FOR FIVE UNITS 1984 1987 1988 1989 TOTAL 3,957 0 0 0 3,957Oo0000 396 0 0 0 396 542 450 450 778 2,217 502 442 442 554 1,940 0 0 0 222 222 £5,397 #892 $892 $€1,551 £8,732 o 1,890 7,740 '%,290 15,120 0 0 120 o 120 0 0 0 re)re) 0 0 ,0 300 300 171 211 201 251 844. 0 o 0 780 780 0 fr)137 137 274 #171 £2,101 $8,408 6,758 $17,439 0 5,973 0 a)5,973 0 0 0 9,500 9,500 £0 $5,973 #9 $9,500 £15,473 $5,568 $08,966 £9,300 $17,809 £41,643 vST GEOTHERMAL DEVELOFMENT COSTS---TOTAL FLOW SYSTEM (Thousand 1983 Dollars) SIX UNITS,12.6 MW NET FIELD DEVELOPMENT COSTS (1983)Froduction well (1) Injection well (0) Well testingDirectoperation and maintenance Fraject administration/management Start-up SUBTOTAL FIELD COSTS FOWER FLANT COSTS Plant engineering and constructionFroductionpipeline Injection pipeline Spare parts Consulting and coordination Start-up Insurance SUBTOTAL POWER FLANT COSTS OTHER COSTS Road construction Transmission line SUBTOTAL OTHER COSTS TOTAL.COSTS FOR SIX UNITS 1984 1987 1988 1989 TOTAL. 3,957 ce)Oo Qo 3,957(2)Q Oo c6) 396 oO (e)[e)396 542 50 450 775 2,217 S02 442 442 554 1,740 a ca)ce)22 222 $5,397 £892 $892 $1,551 $8,732 (e)2,268 9,528 6,348 18,144 (¢)'0 120 ce)120 ce)Q Q ce)Q o a 1 0 350 360 171 211 211 251 844 ce)ce)Q 900 900 (9)ce)137 137 274 $171 $2,479 $9,996 $7,995 $20,642 cé)5,973 Q (e)53,973 (9)19)ce)9,500 9,500 $0 $5,973 $0 $9,500 $15,473 $9,568 $9,544 £10,888 $19,047 $44,847 SST GEOTHERMAL DEVELOPMENT COSTS---BINARY SYSTEM (Thousand 1983 Dollars) ONE UNIT,3.35 MW NET 9ST1986 1987 1988 1989 TOTAL FIELD DEVELOPMENT COSTS (1983) Froduction well (1)3,957 0 Qo 0 3,957 Injection well (a)té)0 Oo ce)0 Well testing 396 Oo oO 0 396 Direct operation and maintenance 542 450 450 775 2,217 Project administration/management 502 442 442 554 1,740 Start-up ce)Le][*)222 222 SUBTOTAL FIELD COSTS 45,397 $892 #892 $1,551 $8,732 FOWER PLANT COSTS Flant engineering and construction ce)1,322 5,553 3,702 10,576 Froduction pipeline 0 (2)120 ce)120 Injection pipeline Qo te)(¢]ce)0 Spare parts QO oO 0 60 40 Consulting and coordination 171 211 #211 251 844 Start-up Qo Q oO 300 300 Insurance o ce]137 137 274 SUBTOTAL FOWER FLANT COSTS #171 #1,533 #6,021 $4,450 $12,174 OTHER COSTS Road construction 0 5,973 oO 0 3,973 Transmission line i)ce)cé)9,500 9,500 SUBTOTAL OTHER COSTS $0 $5,973 £0 $9,500 $15,473 TOTAL COSTS FOR ONE UNIT £5,568 #8,398 $6,913 $15,501 $36,379 GEOTHERMAL DEVELOPMENT COSTS-- -BINARY SYSTEM (Thousand 1983 Dollars) TWO UNITS,6.70 MW NET FIELD DEVELOPMENT COSTS (1983) Froduction well (1) Injection well (0) Well testing Direct operation and maintenance Froject administration/management Start-up SURTOTAL FIELD COSTS FOWER FLANT COSTS Flant engineering and construction Froduction pipeline Injection pipeline Spare parts Consulting and coordination Start-up Insurance SUBTOTAL FOWER FLANT COSTS OTHER COSTS Road construction Transmission line SUBTOTAL OTHER COSTS TOTAL COSTS FOR TWO UNITS 1986 1987 1988 1989 TOTAL 3,957 0 0 0 3,957 )Q 0 )o 396 o re 0 396 542 450 450 775 2,217 502 442 442 554 1,940 0 0 Oo 222 222 $5,397 $892 $892 $1,551 $8,732 0 2,644 11,105 7,403 21,152 0 0 120 0 120feOoOo0t)Oo 0 )120 120 171 Zit 1211 251 844oO0o420420oO0137137274 $171 $2,655 $11,573 $8,331 $22,930 0 5,973 7))5,973fr)o 0 9,500 9,500 $0 §©6 $5,973 $0 «$9,500 £15,473 £5,568 $9,720 $12,465 $19,382 $47,135 LST GEOTHERMAL DEVELOFMENT COSTS --BINARY SYSTEM (Thousand 1983 Dollars) THREE UNITS,10.05 MW NET FIELD DEVELOFMENT COSTS (1983) Froduction well (1) Injection well (0) Well testing Direct operation and maintenance Froject administration/management Start-up SUBTOTAL FIELD COSTS FOWER FLANT COSTS Flant engineering and construction Froduction pipeline Injection pipeline Spare parts Consulting and coordination Start-up Insurance SUBTOTAL FOWER PLANT COSTS OTHER COSTS Road construction Transmission line SUBTOTAL OTHER COSTS TOTAL.COSTS FOR THREE UNITS 1986 1987 1988 1989 TOTAL 3,957 Q 0 0 3,957r))7)0 0 396 )0 0 396 542 450 450 778 2,217 502 442 442 554 1,940 0 0 0 222 222 $35,397 #892 #892 $1,551 £8,732 o 3,966 16,658 11,105 31,728 0 0 120 0 120 0 0 0 0 0 o 0 ,9 180 180 171 241 211 251 844 0 0 0 540 540r)rr)137 137 274 $171 $4,177 £17,126 $12,213 $33,486 oO 5,973 0 0 5,973 0 0 0 9,500 9,500 $0 $5,973 $0 $9,500 $15,473 $5,568 $11,042 $18,018 $23,264 $57,891 8ST GEOTHERMAL DEVELOPMENT COSTS---BINARY SYSTEM (Thousand 1983 Dollars) FOUR UNITS,13.40 MW NET 1986 1987 1988 1989 TOTAL FIELD DEVELOPMENT COSTS (1983) Froduction well (1)3,957 ts)Oo”ce)3,957 Injection well (0)QO 8)9)oO Q Well testing 396 Oo ()ce)396 Direct operation and maintenance 542 450 450 775 2,217 Froject administration/management 502 442 442 S54 1,940 Start-up .Q oO 0 222 222 SUBTOTAL FIELD COSTS $5,397 $892 #892 $1,551 $8,732 FOWER FLANT COSTS Flant engineering and construction (8)3,288 22,210 14,804 42,304 Froduction pipeline (8)ce)120 ie)120 Injection pipeline o oO 18)o-ce) Spare parts ce)(6)[e]240 240 Consulting and coordination 171 211 'on 251 844 Start-up cP)Q (9)660 6460 Insurance ie)ce)137 137 274 SUBTOTAL FOWER PLANT COSTS #171 $5,499 £22,478 $146,094 £44,442 OTHER COSTS Road construction i)5,973 ce)ce)3,973 Transmission line 0 i?)Oo 9,500 9,500 SUBTOTAL OTHER COSTS #0 ($5,973 #0 $9,500 £15,473 TOTAL COSTS FOR FOUR UNITS $5,568 $12,364 $€23,570 $27,145 $68,647 6ST 160 PYRAMID CREEK HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT B.9 DETAILED COST ESTIMATE Item | Cost Mobilization $100,000 POWERHOUSE -.$35,000 (Structural and Architectural) -TURBINE/GENERATOR -$225,000 (Package Unit) ACCESSORY ELECTRICAL EQUIP $82,000 -(Control System) AUXILIARY SYSTEMS &EQUIP $11,000 (HVAC and Dewatering)i SWITCHYARD . $27,000 BYPASS PIPE SYSTEM $100,000 SUBTOTAL $580,000 Contingencies (25%)$145,000 Subtotal $725,000 E&D $47,000 S&A $44,000 TOTAL PRUJECT COST $816,000 IOC (9 months)$32,000 TOTAL INVESTMENT COST $848,000 (Source:U.S.Corps of Engineers,1984) SHATSHNIKOF HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT A.12 DETAILED COST ESTIMATE ITEM/DESCRIPTION QUANTITY 161 LANDS &DAMAGES Administration Costs Lands Contingency (20%) Total Lands and Damages -MOB &DEMOB - Contingency (15%) Total Mob and Demob DAM &INTAKE STRUCTURE Contingency (20%) Total Penstock Excavation,Common 1,769 Excavation,Rock (Dam)687 Excavation,Rock (Spillway)1,880 Concrete,Dam 67 Steel,Structural 4,800 Steel,Rebar &Misc.4,000 Sluice Gate Assembly ] Penstock Gate an. Trash Rack 600 Air Vent 400 Timber,Treated -40 4"X12"T-G Decking 10.5 3/4 ACX Plywood,Treated 2,600 Grout Holes,Drilling 360 Grout Rock Bolts "130 Contingency (20%) Total Dam and Intake Structure ROCKFILL COFFERDAM 1,000 Contingency (25%) Total Rockfill Cofferdam PENSTOCK 42"dia 1/4"Steel 111,440 Ring Stiffners 5,600 Rock Bolts 64 Timber Supports 32 Concrete 34 Excavation,Common 92 c.y. lbs. lbs. ea. ea. c.y. c.y. UNIT PRICE TOTAL $10,000 63,000 15,000 $88,000 $600,000 90,000 $690,000 15 $26,535 100 68,700 _50 94,000 1,200 80,400 1.50 7,200 2.00 8,000 18,000 18,000 10,000 10,000 3.50 2,100 3.50 1,400 3,300 .132,000 3,600 37,800 3.10 8,060 »40 14,400 130 11,700 30 3,900 104,805--ee $629,000 25 $25,000 5,000 3 30,000 2 $222,800 1.80 10,080 30 1,920 255 8,160 1,400 47,600 15 1,380 57,980--_$350,000 162 ITEM/VESCRIPTION QUANTITY UNIT UNIT PRICE TOTAL POWERHOUSE Structure 7 ea.128,000 $128,000 Turbine Generator 2 ea.269,000 538,000 Accessory Electrical ]ea.162,000 162,000 Auxiliary Sys.&Equip.J ea.39,000 39,000 Switchyard (20%)1 ea.46,000 46,000 Contingency (20%,183,000 Total Powerhouse $7,096,000 TAILRACE ; Excavation 334 C.y.5 $1,670 Rockf ill 154 c.y.10 ¥,540,Contingency (20%)-790y4,000 TRANSMISSION LINE (buried) ) 8 mile 155,000 $1,240,000 Contingency (20%)|:248,000 'Total Transmission Line $1,488,000 UNIMPROVED DIRT ROAD Excavation,Common 16,940 C.Y.5 $84,000 Excavation,Rock 12,360 C.y.25 309,000 Fill 4,535 C.Ye 10 45,350 24"Cmp 630 1.f.38 23,940 48"Cmp 175 1.f.100 17,500 Contingency (20%),96,510 Total Unimproved Dirt Road $577,000 SUBTOTAL | $4,952,000 Engineering &Design 322,000 Supervision &Administration 297,000 TOTAL PROJECT COST (Source:U.S.Corps of Engineers,1984) $5,571,000 APPENDIX E Sensitivity Analyses APPENDIX E SUMMARY TABLE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS NET PRESENT VALUES ($1,000) {ie EsemuaTION RATE |_LOW FUEL ESCALATION MEDIUM FUEL ESCALATION |HIGH FUEL ESCALATION GROWTH DISCOUNT RATE 3.52 4.5%3.5%4.5%3.5%4.5% SCENARIO {ALTERNATIVES LOW BASE CASE 67,715 58,268 79 852 68,026 91,050 |76,964 GROWTH A(2)71,469 |65,183 72,901 66 ,368 74,199 |67,434 SCENARIO |B(1)74,407 68,115 75,503 69,028 76,494 |69,846 c(3)67,881 59,083 77,733 67,000 86,839 |74,267 MODERATE |BASE CASE 81,242 69,682 97,293 82,567 112,121 |94,384 GROWTH A(2)75 ,694 68,879 77,837 70,613 79,818 |72,204 SCENARIO {B(1)85 523 77,391 90,315 81,227 94,783 |84,782 ¢(3)80,245 69,507 94,011 80,551 106,746 |90,696 HIGH BASE CASE 131,728 |110,476 165,819 |137,411 197,886 |162,611 GROWTH A(5)95 ,104 86,100 98,919 89,156 102,464 |91,975 SCENARIO |B(3)111,061 |101,038 115,829 |104,810 120,310 |108,331 ¢(3)131,647.|111,048 163,452 |136,142 193,427 |159,670 9252/382/F2/1 €9T US ALAS"A/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYST FLAN "ND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS LOG GROWTH SCENS IO BASE CASE--LOW FUEL FRICE ESCALATION RATE TOTAL FUEL FUEL FUEL S&ODITION/REPLACEMENT O&M SYSTEM USE PRICE COST SCHEDULE COosT cosT COST YEAR {1000 gal)($/gal)($1000)(mw)($1000)($8000)($1000) 1,139 0.876 997 0.00 0 1-012 2-009 1,263 0.842 1,062 0.00 3,920 1,012 5.994 1,388 0.807 1,129 5.60 1,750 1,012 3,882 1,514 0.775 1,173 2.50 0 1,012 2.185 3:1,621 0.775 1,257 0.00 ie)1,012 2-269 29,730 1,729 0.775 1,340 0.00 0 1,012 2.352 22,047 1,837 0.775 1,424 0.00 0 1,012 2,436 73.4346 1.946 0.775 t,508 0.00 1.750 1,012 4,270 24,64¢2,054 0.775 1,592 2.50 te)1,012 2,604 a 2:2,163 0.775 1,676 0.00 0 1,012 2,688 27,259 2-272 0.775 1,762 0.09 220 1,012 2,983 27,485 2,282 0.775 1,769 0.30 420 1,012 3,201 27.532 2-293 0.775 1,777 0.60 0 1,012 2.789 2-304 0.775 1,785 0.00 Q '1,012 2.7972,315 0.775 1,794 0.00 0 1,012 2,806 2.226 0.775 4,803 0.c0 420 1,012 3,235 P8052 2.338 0.775 1,812 0.60 fe)1,012 2,824 3,194 2,350 0.775 1,821 Q.00 0 1,012 2,833 76,239 2,362 0.775 1,820 0.00 644 1,012 3-486 26,s86 2,374 0.775 1,840 0.92 0 1,032 2,852 28.627 2,386 0.775 1,850 0.00 ()1,012 2,862 2R.62?2,386 0.775 =3,850 0.00 3,920 1,012 6-782 ©28.637 2,386 0.775 2,850 5.60 1,750 1,012 4,612 9 22,637 2,386 0.775 2,850 2.50 0 1,012 2.862 2078 28,637 2,386 0.775 1,850 0.00 ie)1,012 2,862 2039 22,63?2.386 0.775 1,850 9.00 0 1,012 2,862 29 28,6237 2,386 0.775 1,850 0.00 0 1,012 2,862 TS 28.637 2,386 0.775 1,850 0.00 1,750 1,012 4,612 2923 23,637 2,386 0.775 1,830 2.50 0 1,012 2.862 2014 28.637 2,386 0.775 1,850 0.00 0 1,012 2,862 20h 28,637 2,386 0.775 1,850 0.00 210 1,012 3,072 SST6 78,637 2,386 0.775 2,850 0.30 420 1,012 3,282 2017?23,637 2,386 0.775 1,859 0.60 0 1,012 2,862 2018 28,637 2,386 Q.775 1,850 0.00 0 1,012 2,862 2O19 22,62?'2,386 0.775 1,850 0.00 0 1,012 2,862 aereaes 28.5)?2.386 0.775 1,850 0.00 420 1,012 3,282 28,637 2,386 0.775 2,850 0.60 0 1,012 2.862 28,627 2,386 0.775 3,859 0.C0 9 1,012 2,862 22,63?2.386 0.775 3,850 9.00 644 1,012 3,506 THh,637 2,386 0.775 1,859 9.92 i)1,012 2,862 23,63°2,386 0.775 1.356 0.00 0 1,012 2,862 (2,214)(2,214) NPV(3-S):$67,715 NPV(4.5)2 $58,268 v9T UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS LOM GROWTH SCEMRTIO BASE CASE--MEDIUM FUFT.PRICE ESCALATION RATE TOTAL DIESE.FUEL FUEL FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT O&M SYSTEM FRODUCTION USE PRICE COST SCHEDULE cost COST COST WEE?cetys/yr)(1000 gal)($/gal)($1000)(MW)($1000)($1000)($1000) Lge 13,6623 1,139 0.876 99?0.00 0 1,012 2,009 L986 23,132 1,263 0.841 1,062 9.00 3.920 1,012 5,994 1987 16,632 1,388 0.841 1,167 5.60 1,750 1,012 3.929 igaRr 18,162 1,514 0.841 °1,273 2.50 0 1,012 2,285 1969 19,455 1,621 0.858 1,391 0.00 0 1,012 2,403 1990 20.730 1.729 0.875 1,513 0.00 o 1,012 2,525 1992 22,04?1,837 0.892 1,640 0.00 i)1,012 2,652 4992 23,346 1,946 0.910 1.771 0.900 1,750 1,012 4,533 199N 24,648 2,054 0.928 1,907 2.50 0 1,012 2.919 1994 254952 2.163 0.947 2.048 0.00 QO 1,032 3.060 1995 274259 21272 0.966 20194 0.00 210 1,012 3,416 2998 27.385 2.282 0.985 2.249 |Q.30 420 1,012 3-681 2e9>27,513 2-293 1.005 24304 -0.60 t)1,012 3-316 9B 27,644 2,304 1.025 2,362 0.00 0,1,012 3,374 29990 97,778 2,315 1.046 22420 0.00 0 1,012 3,432 "00 27,914 2,326 1.067 2,481 0.00 420 1,012 3.913 Poe.28,953 2,338 1.088 2,543 0.60 0 1,012 3,555 JOC?38.394 2,350 1.210 ?.607 0.00 0 1,012 3,619 2002 23,339 2,362 1.132 2,672 0.00 644 1,012 4,329 POC4 22,486 2,374 1.154 2.742 0.92 0 1,032 3.753 C05 28.637 2,386 1.178 2,819 0.00 Qo 1,022 3,822 O56 78.637 2,386 1.29 2.819 0.00 3,920 1,012 7,742 o 28,637 2,386 1.178 2,816 5.60 1,750 1,012 5.572 23.637 2,386 1.178 2,810 2.50 te)1,012 3,822 28,637 2,386 1.178 2,810 0.00 iY)1,012 3,822 38.637 2.386 1.17 2.820 0.00 0 1,012 3.822 28,637 2,386 1.37 2,819 0.00 0 21,012 3,822 28.637 2.386 1.178 2.810 0.00 1,750 1,012 5,572 28,637 2,386 1.278 2,820 2.50 is)1,012 3,822 28,637 2.386 1.278 2.810 0.00 ')1,012 3,822 28.637 2,386 1.178 2.8190 0.00 210 1,012 4,032 28.637 2,386 1.178 2-810 0.30 420 1,012 4,242 28,637 2,386 1.278 2,810 0.60 0 1.012 3,822 78,637 2,386 1.178 2,810 0.00 0 1,012 3,822 28,637 2,386 1.178 2-810 0.00 0 1,012 3,822 28.637 2,386 1.178 2,810 0.00 420 1,012 4,242 28,637 2,386 1.178 2,810 0.60 0 1,012 3,822 28,637 2,386 1.17 2,810 0.00 9 1,012 3,822 28,637 2,386 1.178 2,810 0.00 644 1,012 4,466 28.637 2.386 £2178 2.820 0.92 9 1,012 3,822 28.63?2,386 1.178 2,829 0.00 0 2,012 3,822 (2,214).(2,214) NPV(3.5)+$79,852 NEV(4.5):$62,026 S9T UNALASKA/OUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS LOW GROWTH SCENSRIO BASE CASE--HIGH FUEL FRICK ESCALATION RATE TOTAL FUEL FUEL.FUEL 2DDI'TTON/REPLACEMENT O&M SYSTEMus)PRICE COST SCHEDULE Cost cost COST vei (1000 gat)(S/gat)($1000)(mw)($1000)($1000)($1000) 23,663 1,139 0.876 997 0.00 0 1,012 2,009 4,152 1,263 0.876 1,206 0.00 3,920 1,012 6,038 36.652 1,388 0.876 1,216 3.60 1,750 1,012 3,978 19,182 1,514 0.876 5,326 2.50 9 1,012 2,338 19.455 1,621 0.907 1,470 0.00.1)1,012 2,482 25,750 1.729 0.938 1,623 9.00 +)1,012 2,635 :22,047 1,837 0.973 1,784 0.00 0 1,012 2,796 1993 33,346 1.946 1.005 1,956 0.00 1,750 1,012 4,718 2993 24,648 2,054 1.040 2,137 2.50 0 1,012 3,149 994 23,932 2,163 1.077 2,329 0.00 0 1,012 3,341 349%27,259 2,272 1.125 0.00 210 1,012 3.754 996 27,385 2,282 1.154 0.30 420 1,012 4,064 1997.27,313 2,293 1.194 0.60 0 1,012 3,749 1998 27,644 2,304 1.236 0.00 o ,1,012 3,859 1999 27,778 2,315 1.279 0.00 )1,012 3,972 2090 27,914 2.326 1.324 0.00 420 1,012 4,511 2002 28,053 2,338 1.370 0.60 7)1,012 4,215 2002 28,194 2,350 1-418 0.00 +)1,012 4,344 2003 78,339 2,362 1.468 0.00 644 1,012 5,122 290 28,486 2.374 1.519 0.92 )1,012 4.618 2005 28,637 2,386 1.572 0.00 )1,012 4.764 2006 28,637 2,386 1.572 0.00 3,920 1,012 °8,684 2997 28,637 2,386 1.572 5.60 1,750 1,012 6,514 28,637 2,386 1.572 2.50 )1,012 4,764 28,637 2,386 1.572 0.00 )1,012 4,764 28,637 2,386 1.572 0.00 0 1,012 4.764 28,637 2,386 1.572 0.00 0 1,012 4,764 28,637 2.386 1-572 0.00 1,750 1,012 6,514 28,637 2,386 1.572 2.50 0 1,012 4,764 28.637 2,386 1.572 0.00 +)1,012 4,764 78,637 2,386 1.572 0.00 210 1,012 4,974 28,62?2,286 1.572 0.30 420 1,012 5.184 2,386 3.572 0.69 )1,012 4,764 2,386 1.872 9.00 fr)1,012 4,764 2,386 1.372 0.00 0 1,012 4,764 2,386 1.572 0.00 420 1,012 5,184 2,386 1.572 0.60 0 1,012 4,764 2,386 1.572 9.90 9 3,912 4.764 2,386 2.577 9.00 644 1,01?5,408 2,286 1.572 9.92 0 1,012 4,764 2,386 1.572 0.00 )1,012 4,764 (2,214)(2,214) NPV(3.5):$91,050 NPY(4.5):$76,964 99T 2ebptepeeogOoaongouo¢twNcaRBStnONteDesDwmWADow>oOcepepeneUNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS LOW GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE A(2)- LOW FUEL PRICE ESCALATION RATE GFOTHERMAL COMPONENT DIESEL COMPONENT -- :TOTAL TOTAL GROTUERMAL CONSTRUCTION DIESEL FUEL FUEL FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENY TOTAL O&M =SYSTEM PROMUCTION CCSTS PRODUCTION USE PRICE COST SCHEDULE COST cost cosr COST (Mun /yr )($1000)(MWh/yr)(1000 gal)($/gal)($1000)(Mw)($1000)($1000)($1000)($1000) 0 0 13,663 1,139 0.876 997 0.00 (+)997 1,012 2,009 0 5,568 15,152 1,263 0.841 1,062 0.00 3,920 4,982 1,012 12,562 0 7,832 16,652 1.388 0.807 1,120 5.60 1,750 2-870 1,012 11,714 0 4,536 18,162 1,514 0.775 1,173 2.50 )1,173 1,012 6-721 o-14,095 19,455 1,621 0.775 1,257 0.00 ce)1,257 1,012 16,364 18,675 ft)2.075 173 0.775 134 0.00 ()134 1,275 1.409 19,842 0 2,205 184 0.775 142 0.00 ()142 1,275 1,417 7,012 0 2,335 195 0.775 151 0.00 0 151 1,275 1,426 22.183 (7)2,465 205 0.775 159 0.00 0 159 1,275 1,434 23,357 0 2,595 216 0.775 168 0.00 tt)168 1,275 1,443 24,533 0 2.726 227 0.775 176 0.00 210 386 1,275 1,661 24,646 0)2.738 228 0.775 177 0.30 420 $97 1/275 1,872246,762 0 2,753 229 0.775 178 0.60 ()178 1,275 1,453 24,880 0 2.764 230 0.775 179 0.00 -0 179 1,275 1,454 25-000 0 2-778 231 0.775 1179 0.00 0 179 1,275 1,454 25,2272 )2,791 ;233 0.775 180 0.00 420 600 1,275 1,875 35,249 0 2,805 234 0.775 161 0.60 ty)181 1,275 1,456 23,375 0 2,819 235 0.775 182 0.00 0 182 1,275 1,457 25.595 0 2-834 236 0.775 183 0.00 644 827 1,275 2,102 25,638 0 2,849 237 0.775 184 0.92 )184 1,275 1,459 23,773 0 2,864 239 0.775 185 0.00 0 165 1,275 1,460 23,773 0 2,864 239 0.775 185 0.00 3-920 4.105 1,275 5,380 25,773 0 2,864 239 0.775 185 5.60 1,750 1,935 1,275 3,210 25.973 0 2,864 239 0.775 185 2.50 0 185 1,275 1,460 25,773 0 2,864 239 0.775 185 0.00 0 185 1,275 1,460 25,773 )2.864 239 0.775 185 0.00 tt)185 1,275 1,460 25,773 0 2,864 239 0.775 185 0.00 0 185 1,275 1,460 25,773 °2.864 239 0.775 185 0.00 0 185 1,275 1,460 23.773 0 2,864 239 0.775 185 0.00 0 185 1,275 1,460 23.773 0 2,864 239 0.775 185 0.00 0 185 1,275 1,460 25,773 0 2,864 239 0.775 185 0.00 210 395 1,275 1,670 25,773 0 2,864 239 0.775 185 0.30 420 605 1,275 1,880 25,773 0 2,864 239 0.775 185 0.60 0 185 1,275 1,460 23-773 0 2,864 239 0.775 185 0.00 0 185 1,275 1,460 23,773 0 2,864 239 0.775 185 0.00 )185 1,275 1,460 25,773 fr)2,864 239 0.775 185 0.00 420 605 1,275 1,880 25.7973 0 2,864 239 0.775 185 0.60 0 185 1,275 1,460 23.773 0)2.864 239 0.775 185 0.00 0 185 1,275 1,460 23,773 0 2,864 239 0.775 185 0.00 644 829 1,275 2-104 25,773 0 2,864 239 0.773 185 0.92 0 185 1,275 1,460 25,773 0 2,864 239 0.775 185 0.00 0 185 1,275 1,460 ,.(1,602)(1,602)(1,602) NPV(3.5):$71,469 NPV(4.5):$65,183 L9T UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS LOW GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE A(2)--MEDIUM FUEL PRICE ESCALATION RATE GROTHERMAL COMPONENT DIESEL COMPONENT --<-?TOTAL TOTAL CCOTHERMAL CONSTRUCTION DIESEL FUEL FUEL FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT TOTAL O&M =SYSTEMSPECDUCTIONCOSTSPRODUCTIONUSEPRICECOSTSCHEDULEcostCOSTCOSTCOST VEER (uh /yr }($1000)(MWh /yr)(1000 gal)($/gal)($1000)(Mw)($1000)($1000)($1000)($1000) 1985 id 0 13,663 1,139 0.876 997 0.00 0 997 1,012 2,009 1986 0 5,568 15,152 1,263 0.841 1-062 0.00 3,920 4,982 1,012 11,562 1987 0 7,832 16,652 1,388 0.842 1,167 5.60 2,750 2,917 1,012 11,761 "98B 0 4.536 18.162 1,514 0.841 1,273 2.50 QO 1-273 1,012 6,821 2939 9 14,095 19,455 1,621 0.858 21,391 0.00 0 1,391 1,012 16,498 a89gd 19.673 [e)2.075 173 0.875 151 0.00 Oo 151 1,275 1,426 199)19,842 iy 2-205 184 0.892 164 '0.00 0 164 1,275 1,439 2992 21,032 fe)2.335 195 0.910 177 0.00 0 17?1,275 1,452 199}22,183 0 2,465 205 0.928 19]0.00 Oo 192 1,275 1-466 994 23.35?0 2.595 216 0.947 205 0.00 0 205 1,275 1,480 1aa5 24,533 0 2,726 227 0.966 219 0.00 210 429 1,275 1,704 1996 24.646 ie)2,738 228 0.985 225 0.30 420 645 1.275 1,920 iga7 24,762 0 2,731 229 1.005 230 -0.60 0 230 1-275 1,505 1498 24,880 0 2-764 230 1.025 236 0.00 0 236 1,275 2,511 1999 25-000 te)2,778 231 1.046 242 0.00 0 242 1,275 1,517 2200 25,122 0 2.791 233 1.067 248 0.00 420 668 1,275 1,943 P00"25,247 0 2,805 234 1.088 254 0.60 0 254 1,275 1,529 2002 25-375 0 2-819 235 1.110 261 0.00 0 261 1,275 1,536 2003 25,503 0 2,834 236 1.132 267 0.00 644 911 1-275 2,186 Pang 25,638 0 2.849 237 1.154 274 0.92 0 274 1,275 1,549 2905 23,773 0 2,864 239 1.178 281 0.00 Qo 281 1,275 1,556 LOC6 25/773 9 2,864 239 1.178 281 '0.00 34920 4,201 1-275 5.476 2007 23,773 0 2-864 239 1.178 281 5.60 1,750 2,031 1,275 3-306 2008 25-773 te)2.864 239 1.178 281 2.50 0 281 1,275 1,556 2009 235,373 0 2,864 239 1-178 281 0.00 0 281 1,275 1,556 2915 25,773 0 2,864 239 1.178 281 0.00 o 281 1,275 1,556 201)25,773 0 2,864 239 1.178 281 0.00 0 281 1,275 1,556 201?25,773 [e)2-864 239 1.178 281 0.00 QO 281 1,275 1,556 2073 23,773 0 2,864 239 1.178 281 0.00 oO 281 ==1,275 1,556 2014 25.773 0 2,864 239 1.178 281 0.00 0 281 1.275 1,556 2015 23,7)3 0 2,864 239 1.178 281 0.00 210 491 1,275 1,766 PSks 25.773 0 2.864 239 1.178 28)0.30 420 701 1,275 1,976 20L7 ?3,773 0 2,864 239 1.178 281 0.60 Q 281 4,275 1,556 O18 23.773 0 2,864 239 1.178 281 0.00 te)281 1,275 1,556 2019 25,774 0 2,864 239 1.178 281 0.00 0 281 1,275 1,556 2025 25.773 0 2,664 ?39 1.378 282 0.00 420 701 1,275 1,976 O22 25,7723 9 2,864 239 1.178 281 0.60 0 281 1,275 1,556 2027 a,273 Qo 2,864 239 1.178 281 0.00 (s)281 1,275 1,556 2023 25.773 0 27864 239 1.178 281 0.00 644 925 1,275 2,200 2024 BaP 0 2.864 239 1.178 281 0.92 9 281 1,275 1,556 2025 25,773 0 2,864 :239 1.178 281 0.00 0 281 1,275 1,556 (1,602)(1,602)(1,602) NPV(3.5):$72,901 °NPV(4.5):$66,368 89T UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS LOW GROWTH SCENARIO GEOTHERMSL COMPONENT LTFRNATIVE A(2)--HIGH FUEL PRICE ESCALATION RATE DIESEL COMPONENT 691.TOTAL =TOTAL COCTHERMAL CONSTRUCTION DIESEL FUEL FUEL FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT TOTAL OsM SYSTEM SP PRCT TON COSTS PRODUCTION USE PRICE COST SCHEDULE COST COST COST COST eae sy)($1000)(mwn/yr)(1000 gat)($/gal)($1000)(mv)($1000)($1000)($1000)($1000) 0 0 13,663 1,139 0.876 997 0.00 0 997 1,012 2,009 0 5,568 15,152 1,263 0.876 1,106 0.00 3.920 5,026 1,012 11,606 rs)7,832 16,652 1,388 0.876 1,216 5.60 1.750 2,966 1,012 12,810 0 4,536 18.162 1,514 0.876 1,326 2.50 ©1,326 1,012 6,874 0 14,095 19,455 1,621 0.907 1,470 0.00 0 1,470 1,012 16,577 18,675 0 2,075 1730938 162 0.00 0 16204275437 19,842 )2,205 184 0.971 178 0.00 7)178.«1-275 «1,453 21,012 +)2,335 195 =..005 196 0.00 )1960 1,275,471 22,183 )2465 205 =.2.040 214 0.00 )214 «1,275.1,489 23,357 )2,595 216 =1.077 233°0.00 1)233.«142751,508 24,533 7)2,726 227)1.115 283 0.00 210 463 1,275 1,738 24.646 )2.738 228 =1.154 263 0.30 420 683 1,275 1,958 24,762 0 2,751 229 «1.194 274 0.60 )274142751549 24,8R0 )2,764 230 =-1.236 295 0.00 +)285 1,275 1,560 25,000 0 2,778 231 1.279 296 0.00 ry 296 «1,275 21,572 25,122 )2,791 23300 (1.324 308 0.00 420 728 «14275 2,003 25,247 )2,805 234 =-1.370 320 0.60 0 320.«1,275 1,595 23,775 0 2,819 235 -s«1.418 333 0.00 0 333.14275-1608 25,568 0 2,834 2360 («1.468 34?0.00 644 991 1,275 2,266 23,623 )2.849 237--«1.819 361 0.92 0 361 14275 1,636 23,773 )2,864 239°«1.572 375 0.00 )375.«142751650 23,772 0 2,864 239 «1.572 375 0.00 3,920 4,295 1,275 5,570 25,773 0 2,864 239°«1.572 375 5.60 1,750 2412522753400 23,773 0 2,864 239°«1.572 375 2.50 0 375 «1,275 1650 23,773 0 2,864 239°«14872 375 0.00 0 375°«14275-1650 28,777 )2,864 239 «1.572 375 0.00 0 375.«14275.1,650 25,779 0 2,864 239°«1.572 375 0.00 0 375.«1,275,650 2.773 0 2,864 239 =«1.572 373 0.00 +)375142751650 23,773 0 2,864 239°«1.872 373 0.00 0 375 «142752650 23,779 0 2,864 239°«1.572 375 0.00 0 375 «142751650 23,772 3)2,864 239°-:1.572 375 0.00 210 585 1,275 1,860 24,773 0 2,864 239 «1.572 375 0.30 420 795 1.275 2,070 25,773 0 2,884 239°«1.572 375 0.60 0 375.«1.275.1,650 23,773 0 2,864 239°«1.572 375 0.00 0 375.«1,275.:1,650 23,773 0 2,864 239°«1.572 375 0.00 0 375 «1,275.1,630 23,773 +)2,864 239°«1.572 375 0.00 420 795 14275 2,070 23,773 0 2,864 239 «:1.572 375 0.60 0 375.«1,275.1,650 23.773 0 2,864 239°=-1.572 375 0.00 0 375.«1,275,650 23,773 )2,864 2390 «1.572 373 0.00 644 1,019 1,275 2,294 23.773 0 2,864 239°«=«-:1.572 373 0.92 )375,«1,275.:1,630- 25,773 0 2,864 239°«1.572 375 0.00 0 375.1,275 8,630 (1,602)(1,602)(1,602) NPV(3.5):$74,199 NPV(4.5):$67,434 UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS LOW GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE B(1)--LOW FUEL PRICE ESCALATION RATE GEOTHERMAL COMPONENT ' DIESEL COMPONENT TOTAL TOTAL CLOT PMAL CONSTRUCTION DIESEL.FUFL FUEL FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT TOTAL O&M SYSTEM $"TION COSTS FRIDUCTION USE PRICE COST SCHEDULE COST cost COST COST VLR ia /yr)£92000)(MWh /yr}(1009 gai)($/gal)($1000)(MW)($1000)($1000)($1000)($1000) ig 0 23,663 1,139 0.876 997 0.00 0 997 1,012 2-009 2 3,568 15,152 1,263 0.841 1,062 0.00 3,920 4,982 1,012 11,562 ie]8,398 16,652 *2,388 0.807 1,120 5.60 1,750 2,870 1,012 12.280 9 6.913 18.162 1,514 0.775 1.273 2.50 Q 1,173 1,012 9,098 e 25,502 19,455 1,62)0.775 1,257 0.00 ()1,257 1,012 317,770 28,675 i')2.975 173 0.775 134 0.00 te)134 1,275 1,409 19,862 ie)2.205 184 0.775 142 0.00 0 142 1,275 1,41? #L,912 0 26335 195 0.775 151 9.00 te)151 1.275 1,426 27.383 0 2,465 205 0.775 159 0.00 0 159 1,275 2,434 23,337 0 2,395 216 0.775 168 0.00 0 168 1,275 1,443 2664675 0 @4?71 0.775 55 0.00 210 265 1,275 1,540 26-421 fe)973 82 0.778 63 0.30 420 483 14275 1,758 26,41:0 1-102 92 0.775 71 0.60 °o 71 1,275 1,346 6.412 0 1.233 103 0.775 80 0.00 oO 80 1,275 1,355 76-412 fe)1,366 114 0.775 '88 0.00 0 88 1-275 1,363 26-412 9 1,502 125 0.775 97 0.00 420 517 1,275 1,792 26,411 te)1,641 137 0.775 106 0.60 0 106 1,275 1,381 26-412 Y)1.783 149 0.775 115 0.00 (+)115 1.275 1,390 26,411 te)1,928 161 0.775 124 0.00 644 768 1,275 2,043 26-411 0 2,075 173 0.775 134 0.92 Q 134 1,275 1.409 26,411 0 2,225 185 0.775 144 0.00 0.144 2,275 1-419 26,411 fe)2-225 285 0.775 144 0.00 3,920 4,064 1-275 5-339 26,411 0 24225 285 0.775 144 5.60 1,750 1,894 1,275 3,169 26.411 i]2-225 +185 0.775 144 2.50 Q 144 1,275 1-419 26-412 0 2.225 185 0.775 144 0.00 0 144 1,275 1,419 "6-412 0 22225 285 0.775 144 0.00 0 144 1.275 1,419 26,413 0 24225 185 0.775 144 0.00 0 144 1.275 1,419 8,412 B)2.225 4185 0.775 144 0.00 t!)144 1,275 1,419 26.42%0 24225 185 0.775 144 0.00 0 144 1,275 1,419 76.414 QO 2-225 285 0.775 144 0.00 )144 1,275 1,419 76,412 0 2,225 183 0.775 144 0.00 210 354 1,275 1,629 26,411 0 2,225 ras 0.775 144 0.30 420 564 1,275 1,839 PRAY 0 2,225 185 0.775 244 0.690 Q 144 1,275 1,419 26,411 9 2,225 185 0.775 144 0.00 0 144 1,275 1.419 26.423 0 2.225 185 0.775 144 0.00 c 144 1,275 1,419 26.41)9 222%185 0.775 144 0.00 420 564 1,275 1,839 26,423 0 26205 185 0.775 144 0.60 0 144 1,275 1.419 26,412 )2,825 285 0.775 144 0.00 0 144 1,275 1,419 26,425 e 2,225 2€3 0.775 144 0.00 644 788 1,275 2,062 26.412 °2.2235 135 0.775 144 0.92 9 144 1,275 1,419 PA ALR 0 Oe oRe 1e5 0.773 344 c.00 0 144 1,275 1,419 (1,602)(1-602)(1,602) NPV(3.5):$74,407 NPV(4.5):$68,115 OLT UNALAS"A/DUTCH HARBOR PCVIER SYSTEM PLAN AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS LOW GROWTH SCENARTO ALTERNATIVE 3(2)--MEDIUM FUEL PRICE ESCALATION RATE DIESEL COMPONENT .we renee ee TOTAL DIESEL FUEL FUEL,FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT TOTAL O&M COSTS PROOUCTION SE PRICE COST SCHEDULE CcOsT COosT COST Yrer ct yye )(#2000)(MWh/yr)(1900 gai)($/gal)($1000)(Mw)($1000)($1000)($1000) G 0 13,663 1,139 0.876 997 0.00 0 997 2,012 5 5,568 15,152 1,263 0.841 1,062 0.00 34920 4.982 1,012 6 8,398 16,652 1,388 0.841 1,167 5.60 1.750 2°91?1,012 3 6,913 218,162 2.5214 0.841 1,273 2.50 0 1,273 1,012 o 15,501 19,435 1,621 0.858 1,391 0.00 °1,391 1,012 18.675 0 2.075 173 0.875 151 0.00 Y)151 1.275 19,842 0 2-205 184 0.892 164 0.00 ty 164 1,275 21,0i2 0 2-335 195 0.910 177 0.00 i)177 16275 22,183 0 22463 205 0.928 ©192 0.00 0 191 1,275 23,357 0 2-595 216 0.947.205 0.00 i?)205 1,275 26,431 0 847 71 0.966 68 0.00 210 278 1-275 766411 Qo 973 81 0.985 80 0.30 420 500 1-275 26,422 0 1,102 92 1.005 92 0.60 (1)92 1,275 26-412 te)1,233 103 1.025 105 0.00 .9 105 1.275 76,411 0 1,366 114 1.046 119 0.00 i)119 1,275 28,412 te)1,502 125 1.067 134 0.00 420 554 1.275 26,432 0 1,641 137 1.088 149°0.60 i¢)149 1.275 26,411 Q 1,783 149 1.110 165 0.00 t')165 1,275 26,413 0 1,928 161 1.132 182 0.00 644 826 1,275 26.413 0 2.075 173 2.154 200 0.92 i)200 1,275 76,672 0 24225 185 1.178 218 0.00 0 218 .4,275 26-412 9 2.225 185 1.178 218 0.00 3.920 4,138 1,275 26,412 e 26225 185 1.178 218 5.6C .1,750 1,968 1,275 76.412 9 2.225 285 1.178 218 2.50 0 218 1,275 6,435 0 2,925 1e5 1.178 218 0.00 te)218 1,275 6,412 9 24225 1853 1.178 218 0.00 +)218 1,275 2674.2 0 2,225 yes 2.178 218 0.00 0 218 1,275 26-411 0 2,225 185 1.278 218 9.00 9 218 1,275 26.42%0 2,223 185 1.178 218 0.00 0 218 1,275 2%,432 0 2.2248 285 1.3?218 9.00 0 218 1.275 26,4653 te]2,225 182 1.178 218 0.00 210 428 1,275 "BSL E e)2.225 LAS 1.178 218 0.30 420 638 1,275 76,412 ie]26225 183 1.178 218 0.60 0 218 1.275 26.412 P)2,225 183 1.178 218 0.00 [e)218 1.275 76,431 0 24275 185 1.178 218 0.00 0 218 1,275 S664ik (Y)26225 185 1.178 218 0.00 420 638 1,275 26-423 0 24225 ,185 1.178 218 0.66 iY)218 1,275 26.41)0 24225 185 1.178 218 0.00 te)218 1,275 26,425 ©2,225 185 1.178 218 0.00 644 862 1,275 26-4i1 9 2.223 185 1.178 218 0.92 i)218 1,275 26-411)0 24225 185 1.178 218 0.00 Qo 218 1,275 (1,602)(1,602) TOTAL SYSTEM COST ($1000) 2,009 11,562 12,327 9,198 17,904 1,426 1,439 2,452 1,466 1,480 1,553 1,775 1,367 1,380 1,394 1,829 1,424 1,440 2-101 1.475 1.493 5,413 3,243 1,493 1,493 1,493 1,493 1,493 1,493 1.493 1-703 1,913 1,493 1,493 1,493 1.913 1,493 1,493 2.137 1,493 1,493 (1,602) NPV(3.5):$75,503 NPV(4.5):$69,028 TLT UNALASKA /DOTCH HARBOR PCMIER SYSTEM PLAN AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS LCA GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE 204)--4IGH FUEL FRICE ESCALATION RATE OP CCHERAL,COMPONENT DIESEL COMPONFNT Lei mecemeermemeemememe pean :om TOTAL TOTAL CONSTRUCTION DIES.FULL FUEL FURL,ADDITION/REPLACEMENT TOTAL O&M SYSTEM COSTS PRODUCTION USE PRICE COST SCHEDULE COST cost CcOsT COST ($1000)(MWh/yr)(2000 gat)($/gai)($1000)(MW)($1000)($1000)($1000)($1000) >ie)13,663 1-139 0.876 997 0.00 i)997 1,012 2,009 t 5,568 15.152 1,263 0.876 1,106 0.00 3,920 5,026 1.012 11,606 2927 8,398 16,652 1,388 0.876 1,216 5.60 1,750 2-966 1,012 12.376 2988 6,913 18,162 1.514 0.876 1,326 2.50 oO 1,326 1,012 9-251 1999 0 19-501 19,455 1,621 0.907 1,470 0.00 0 1,470 1,012 17,983 1990 18,675 9 2,075 173 0.938 162 0.00°0 162 1,275 1,437 599%19,842 0 2,295 184 0.971 178 0.00 Qo 178 1,275 1,453 2992 2,012 0 2,335 195 1.005 196 0.00 0 196 1,275 1,472) 1992 22-183 0 2,465 205 1.040 214 0.00 tY)214 1,275 1,489 Lgg4 23,357 )2,595 216 1.077 233 0.00 0 233 1-275 1,508 26,411 0 849 71 1.115 79 0.00 210 289 1,275 1,564 26.411)(e)973 82 1.154 94 0.30 420 514 1,275 1,789 26,411 fe)1,102 92 1.194 110 0.60 0 110 1,275 1,385 24,41)0 1,233 103 1.236 }27 0.00 i")127 1,275 1,402 26,413 0 1,366 114 1.279 146 0.00 -0 146 1,275 1,421 26.41)0 21,502 125 1.324 166 0.00 420 586 1,275 1,861 26,432 is)1,641 137 1.370 187 0.60 ie)187 1.275 1,462 26,41)(°)1,783 149 1.418 211 0.00 [Y)211 1,275 1,486 76,43)0 1.928 161 1.468 236 0.00 644 880 1,275 2,155 2h,41)te)2,075 2173 1.519 263 0.92 0 263 1,275 1,538 26-423 0 2-225 185 1.572 292 0.00 0 292 1,275 1,567 25.412 0 24225 195 1.572 292 0.00 3-920 4.212 1,275 5.487 26,433 0 2,225 185 1.572 292 5.60 1,750 2,042 1,275 3.317 76,411 0 2.4225 185 £.572 292 2.50 ie)292 1,275 1.567 26/432 0 22225 185 1.572 292 0.00 0 292 1,275 1,567 We 4ll 0 2.225 '185 1.572 292 0.00 0 292 1,275 1,567 26.473 0 2,225 185 1.572 292 0.00 )292 1,275 1,567 28,411 9 2,223 185 1.572 292 0.00 0 292 1.275 1,567 26,433 0 2,225 185 1.572 292 0.00 0 292 1,275 1,567 26.411 )2.225 165 1.572 292 0.00 te)292 1,275 1-567 76,43)0 2,225 185 1.572 292 0.00 210 502 1,275 1,777 6.41b 9 24225 185 1.572 292 0.30 420 712 1,275 1,987 26,412 i]2,223 185 1.572 292 0.60 0.292 1,275 1,567 26.41 R)2.225 165 1.572 292 0.00 0 292 1,275 1,567 26,411 0 2.225 185 1.572 292 0.00 0 292 1,275 1,567 26.4)0 24225 185 1.572 292 0.00 420 712 1,275 1,987 26,421 0 20225 185 1.572 292 0.60 0 292 1-275 1,567 2022 26,411 Ve)2,225 185 1.572 292 0.00 0 292 1,275 1-567 2023 26,411 0 24225 185 1.572 292 0.00 644 936 1,275 2,21) 2OP4 26,411 9 2,723 185 1.572 292 0.9?0 292 1.275 1,567 2023 26,411 i 2r225 185 1.572 292 0.00 0 292 1,275 1,567 (1,602)(1,602)(1,602) NPV(3.5):$76,494 NPV(4.5):$69,846 edt \ UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWCR SYSTEM PLAN AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS LOW GROWTH SCENARIO- ALTERNATIVE C(3)--LOW FUEL PRICE ESCALATION RATE HVDEXIPOWER COMPONENT DIESEL COMPONENT -TOTAL 'TOTAL HYDROPOWER CONSTRUCTION DIESEL FUEL FUEL FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT §TOTAL OsM SYSTEM PR OOUCTION COSTS PRODUCTION USE PRICE COST SCHEDULE COST COST COST cost vEa?(Muh /ye )($1000)(MWh/yr)(1000 gal)($/gal)($1000)(Mw)($1000)($1000)($1000)($1000) 1985 ¢©13,663 1,139 0.876 997 0.00 )997 1,012 2,009 Lok 6 9 )15,152 1,263 0.841 1,062 0.00 3,920 4,982 1,012 5,994 7987 0 0 16,652 1,388 0.807 1,120 5.60 1,750 2,870 1.012 3,882 Lona 9 6,387 18,162 1,514 0.775 1,173 2.50 Oo 1,173 1,012 8,572 19g 3,288 e 14,167 1,182 0.775 915 0.00 0 915 1,062 1,977 19a 2,288 9 15,462 1,288 0.775 999 0.00 )999 1,062 2,061 2992 5,288 3)16,759 1.397)0.775 1,082 0.00 0 1,082 1,062 2,244 aan 2,298 0)18,058 1,505 0.775 1,266 0.00 )1,166 1,062 2,228 1993 5,288 4)19,366 1,613 0.775 1,250 0.00 0 1,250 1,062 2,312 aqg 3,288 )20,664 1,722.0.775 1,335 0.00 1,750 3,085 1,062 4,147 1998 3,728 3)21,972 1,832 0.775 1,419 2.50 210 =--:1,629 1,062 2,692 98 5,288 Q 22,097 1,841 0.775 1,427 0.30 420-184?1,062 2,909 yaar 3,288 0 22,225 1,852 0.775 1,435 0.60 0 1,435 1,062 2-497 4,768 )22,356 1,663 0.775 1,444 0.00 o 1,444 1,062 2,506 5,288 0 22,490 1,874 0.775 1,453 0.00 0 1,453 1,062 2,515 3,288 0 22,626 1,885 0.775 1,461 °0.00 420 1,881 1,062 2,943 5,288 )22,765 1,897 0.775 1,470 0.60 0 1,470 1,062 2,532 3,288 )22.996 1,909 0.775 1,479 0.00 0 1,479 1,062 =2,541 3,288 0 23,051 1,921 0.775 1,489 0.00 644 2,133 1,062 3,195 5,288 +)23.198 1,933 0.775 =1,498 0.92 0 1,498 1,062 2,560 5,288 0 23,349 1,946 0.775 1,508 0.00 ©1,508 1,062 2,570 3,288 0)23,349 1.946 0.775 2,508 0.00 3,920 $-428 1,062 6,490 5,288 0 23,349 1,946 0.775 1,508 5.60 1-750 3,258 1,062 4,320 3,288 0)23.349 1,946 0.775 1,508 2.50 ©1,508 1,062 2,570 3,288 4)23,349 1,946 0.775 1,508 0.00 o 1,808 1,062 2,570 4,288 0 23,349 1,946 0.775 1,508 0.00 0 1,508 1,062 2,570 5,288 4)23,349 1,946 0.775 1,508 0.00 0 1,508 1,062 2,570 3,288 ")23,349 1,946 0.775 1,508 0.00 o 1,508 1,062 2,570 4,288 )23,349 1,946 0.775 1,508 0.00 0 1,508 1,062 2,570 4,228 6 23,349 1,946 0.775 1,508 0.00 1,750 3.258 1,062 4,320 5,788 0 23,749 1,946 0.775 1,508 2.50 210 =-s-1,718 1,062 2,780 3,288 )23,349 1,946 0.775 1,508 0.30 420 =:1,928 1,062 2,990 5,228 +)23,349 1,946 =0.775 1,508 0.60 0 2,508 1,062 2,570 4,288 f)23,749 1,946 0.775 1,508 0.00 4)1,508 1,062 2,570 5,298 0 22,249 1,946 0.775 1,598 0.00 |4)1,508 1,062 2,370 "3,288 o 23,349 1,946 0.775 1,508 0.00 420-1928 1-062 2,990 5,788 0 23,249 -2,946 0.975 1,508 0.60 Oo 1,508 1,062 2,570 3,28 f)24,249 1,946 9 0.775 1,308 0.00 )1,508 1,062 2,570 5,288 0 23,249 47946 0.775 1,308 0.00 644 =2152 1,062 3,214 3,288 9 2be349 16946 9 0.775 1,38 9.92 1)1,508 1,062 2.570 3,298 0 23,240 1,946 =0.775 1,508 0.00 0 1,508 1,062 2,570 (2,389)(2,389)(2,389) NPV(2.5):$67.89: NPY(4.5)2 $39,083 ect UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS LOW GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE C(3)--MEDIUM FUEL PRICE ESCALATION RATE NYDPOCOWETR COMPONINT DIESEL COMPONENT eee oe en ee eee ceeeeeee TOTAL TOTAL EYDROPCWER CONSTRUCTION DIESEL FUEL FUEL FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT TOTAL O&M SYSTEM 'CTION COSTS PRODUCTION USE PRICE COST SCHEDULE COST COST COST COST VEL rMua/yvr)($1000)(MWh /yr )(1000 gai)($/gal)($1000)(mw)($1000)($1000)($1000)($1000) c 0 13.663 1,139 0.876 997 0.00 0 997 1,012 2-009 BP}9 15,15?1,263 0.841 1,062 9.00 3,920 4.982 1,012 5.994 is}0 16,652 1,388 0.841 1-167 5.60 1,750 2,917 1,012 3,929 28 9 6.387 18.162 1,514 0.841 1,273 2.50 Q 1,273 1,012 8.672 2ef4 5,282 ie)14,16?1,282 0-858 1,013 0.00 0 1,013 1,062 2,075 Tang 5,298 9 15,462 1,288 0.875 2,127 0.00 0 1,127 1,062 2,189 99°A.Dee 0 16,759 1,397 0.892 1,246 0.00 i)1,246 1,062 2,308 2992 5,288 9 18,058 1,505 0.910 1,370 0.00 0 1,370 1,062 2-432 Tgar 5,288 0 19,366 1,613 0.928 1,498 0.00 0 1,498 1,062 2,560 2904 2,288 0 20.664 1.722 0.947 1,631 0.00 1,750 3,381 1,062 4,443 2995 5,788 0 21,97!1,831 0.966 1.769 2.50 210 1,979 1,062 3,04] L906 5 288 te)22,097 1,841 0.985 1,814 0.30 420 2.234 1,062 3.296 199°3,288 i]22,225 1,852 1.005 1,861 0.60 O 1,861 1,062 2,923 1998 5,288 0 22,356 1,863 1.025 1,910 0.00 [e)1,910 1,062 2,972 2999 5,288 0 22,490 1,874 1.046 1,960 0.00 QO 1-960 1,062 3,022 2000 5.288 0 22,626 1,885 1.067 2,011 0.00 420 2-431 1,062 3,493 2007 5,288 ie)22,765 1,897 1.088 2,064 0.60 J 2-064 1,062 3,126 10e2 3,288 )22.906 1.909 1.110 2,118 0.00 0 2.118 1,062 3.180 2003 5,288 (¢)23,051 1,921 1.132 20174 0.00 644 2-818 1,062 3-880 7904 3,288 (°)23,198 1,933 1.154 2.232 0.92 Qo 2-232 1,062 3.294 200 5,288 0 23,349 1,946 1.178 2,291 0.00 0 2-291 1-062 3,353 256 5,288 Q 23,349 1,946 1.178 2,291 0.00 3.920 6,211 1,062 74273 20 3.288 [e)23,349 1,946 1.178 2,291 5.60 1,750 4,041 1,062 5,103 acer 3,288 0 23,349 1,946 1.178 2-291 2.50 te)2-291 1,062 3,353 200 5,288 0 23,349 1,946 1.178 2,291 0.00 [e)2,291 1,062 3-353 207 3,288 0 23,349 1,946 1.178 2.291 0.00 t)2-291 1,062 3-353 7 5,288 (9)23-349 1,946 1.178 2,291 0.00 0 2.291 1,062 3,353 Bors =,788 ie)23,349 1,946 1.178 2,291 0.00 0 2-291 1,062 3,353 2o37 3,288 0 23,349 1,946 1.178 26291 0.00 0 2.291 1,062 3,353 MLS =.288 0 23,340 1.946 1.178 2.291 9.00 1,750 4,041 1,062 5-103 POIs 5,28¢0 22,349 :1,946 1.178 2-29)2.50 210 2,501 1,062 3,563 16 B.DEE 9)73,349 1,946 1.178 2-291 0.30 420 2.711 1,062 3,773 2627 5,288 0 23,349 1,946 1.178 2,291 0.60 0 2,29)1,062 3,353 29k8 3,252 9 O32,349 1.946 1.178 2,291 0.00 0 2,291 1,062 3,353 2078 5,288 ie)23,349 1,946 1.178 2,291 0.00 0 2-291 1,062 3,353 2529 3,289 9 23,749 1,946 £.178 2-291 9.00 420 2-711 1,062 3,773 POR}5.262 id 23,2349 1,946 1.178 2-29)0.60 0 2-291 1,062 3,353 3,288 QO 22,349 1,946 1.278 2,29)0.90 (9)2,291 1,062 3,353 5,288 ie]23-349 1,946 1.178 2429)6.00 644 27935 1,062 3,997 3.298 0 73,249 1.946 1.178 2-291 9.92 ie)2,291 1,062 3,353 3.288 0 23,349 1,946 1.178 2729)0.00 0 2-291 1,062 3,353 (2,389)(2,389)(2,389) NPV(3.5):$77,733 NPV(4.5):$67,000 yLT feta3oo23.asWt.Chere)"Boas538odideadbotUNALASKA/DUTCH,HARBOR PCWER SYSTEM PLAN AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS LOW GROWTH SCENARIO ALTUPNATIVE C(3)--HIGH PUEL PRICE ESCALATION RATE SYD?OSOUER COMEQNENT DIESEL COMPONENT Te re tee men eer ce caee cee - :TOTAL TOTAL ENT OPOQUER CONSTRUCTION DIESEL.Fur FUEL FUE].ADDITION/REPLACEMENT TOTAL O&M =SYSTEM Fe TT TON COSTS PRODUCTION USE PRICE COST SCHEDULE Cost COST COST COST fm fy )€s1000)fMulb fyz )(2000 gaat)($/gal)($1000)(mw)($1000)($1000)($1000)($1000) id LY)13,663 1,139 0.876 997 0.00 i)997 1,012 2,009 )ie)15,152 1,263 0.876 1,106 0.00 3.920 5,026 1,012 6,038 G 0 16,652 1,388 0.876 1-216 5.60 1-750 2,966 1,012 3,978 2 6,387 18,162 1,514 0.876 1,326 2.50 i)1-326 1,012 8.725 3,2ee 0 14,167 1,181 0.907 1,070 0.00 0 1,070 1,062 2.132 >,288 0 15,462 1.288 0.938 1,209 0.00 0 1,209 1,062 2-271 5228 ie)16,759 1.397 0.971 1.356 0.00 0 1,356 1,062 2,418 3,288 i)18,058 2,505 1.005 1,513 0.00 Q 1.513 1,062 2,575 5,288 i)19,360 1,613 1.040 1,679 0.00 i*)1,679 1,062 2,741 5b,288 is)20,664 3,722 1.077 1,854 0.00 1,750 3-604 1,062 4,666 5.288 0 21,971 1,831 1.115 2,041 2.50 210 2,251 1,062 3,313 5,288 Q 22.097 1,841 1.154 2-124 0.30 420 2,544 1,062 3,606 5,288 Qo 22,225 °1,852 1.194 2-211 0.60 9 2,21)1,062 3,273 5,288 0 22,356 1,863 ,1.236 2.802 0.00 i)2.4302 1,062 3.364 5,288 te)22,490 1,874 1.279 2.397 0.00 t)2,397 1,062 3.4595.288 0 22,626 1,885 1.324 2.496 0.00 420 2,916 1,062 3,978 3,288 0 22,765 1,897 1.370 2.599 0.60 0 2-599 1-062 3,661 3,288 0 22,906 2,909 1.418 2.707 0.00 Q 2.707 1,062 3.769 5,288 0 23,051 1,921 1.468 2.819 0.00 644 3,463 1,062 4,525 3.288 0 23,198 4,933 1.519 2-936 0.92 [Y)2-936 1,062 3.998 5,288 QO 23,349 1,946 1.572 3,059 0.00 0 3,059 1,062 4-121 4,288 9 23,349 1,946 1.572 3,059 0.00 3,920 6.979 1,062 8,041 5,306 0 23,349 1,946 1.972 3,059 5.60 1,750 4,809 1,062 5-871 =,288 9 23,349 1,946 1.572 3,059 2-50 i?)3,059 1,062 4.12) 5,288 Q 23,349 1,946 1.572 3,059 0.00 0 3.059 1,062 4,121 5,298 ie)23,3949 2,946 1.572 3,059 0.00 Qo 3.059 1,062 4.12} 5,28 c 23,349 1,946 1.572 3,059 0.00 i)3,059 1,062 4,12) 5.298 te)23,349 1,946 1.572 3,089 0.00 0 3,059 1,062 4.221 5,288 0 23,349 1,946 1.572 3,059 0.00 0 3,059 1,062 4,121 =.2Ae 9 23,349 1,946 1.572 3,059 0.00 1,750 4,809 1,062 5-871 5.28P Q 23,349 2,946 1.572 3,059 2.50 210 3,269 1,062 4,331 =,288 QO 24,249 1,946 1.572 3.039 Q.30 420 3.479 1,062 4.541 3,298 0 23,349 1,946 1.572 3,059 0.60 0 3,059 1,062 4-121 3,288 9 23.849 14946 1.572 3,059 0.00 0 3,059 1,062 4.121 5,288 0 23,249 1,946 1.572 3,059 0.00 0 3,059 1,062 4.121 4,288 (9)23,349 L,.946 1.572 3,059 9.00 420 3,479 1,062 4.541 5,288 0 23,389 1,946 2.572 3.059 0.60 0 3,059 1,062 4.12) 5,288 0 23,349 1,946 1.572 3,059 9.00 Qo 3,059 1,062 4,121 3,288 0 23,349 1,946 1.572 3,059 0.00 644 ©3,703 1,062 4,765 5,288 M)23,349 1,946 1.572 3,059 0.92 i)3,059 1,062 4-121 5,288 0 23,349 1,946 1.572 3,059 0.00 VY)3-059 2,062 4,121 (2,389)(2,389)(2,389) NPV(3.5):$86,839 NPV(4.5):$74,267 SLT UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS MODERATE GPOWTH SCENSRIO BASE CASE--LCW FUEL SRICE ESCALATION RATE TOTAL FUEL FUEL FUEL ASDTTION/REPLACEMENT O&M SYSTEM Pint TIN USE PRICE COST SCHENULE COST cOsT COST YEER tre /yr}(eco gal)(S/gai)($1000)(MVE)($1000)($1000)($1000) 32,663 1.339 0.876 997 0.00 is]1,012 2,009 1842S 2,370 0.842)2,282 9.00 3,920 1,012 6,084 :29-2323 1,603 0.807 1,294 5.69 1,750 1,012 4,056 '72,028 1,438 0.775 1,425 2.50 21,750 1,012 4,187 24:664 2,035 0.775 1,393 2.50 0 1-012 2,605 27 e379 2.273 0.775 3.762 0.00 9 1,012 2.774 28,723 2,393 0.775 3/855 0.00 0 1,012 2,867 30,174 2,514 0.775 1,949 0.90 1,750 1,022 4.711 31,638 2,636 0.795 2,043 2.50 0 1,012 3,055 23,12 2.759 0.775 2.139 9.00 0 1,012 3-151 =34,690 2,883 0.775 2/235 0.00 210 1-012 3.457 5 24,917 2.910 0.775 2-255 0.30 420 1,012 3.687 19a"3542466 2,937 0.775 21276 0.60 0 1-012 3-288 1998 33.589 2.966 0.775 2,299 0.00 Oo,1,012 3,311 3499 35,946 2,995 0.775 2,322 0.00 ie]1-012 3,334 along 26-317 3-026 0.775 2,346 0.00 420 1,012 3,778 ecol 36,704 3-059 0.7735 2,371 0.60 fe)1,012 3,383 202 37,106 3,092 0.775 2,397 0.00 1,750 1,012 5,159 290%37,525 34127 0.775 27424 2.50 644 1-012 4,080 2004 3-163 0.775 24432 0.92 (J 1,012 3,464 Pode 3-201 0.775 2,481 0.00 .0 1,012 3-493 tO 94 3,201 0.775 2,481 0.00 3,920 1,012 7,413 2037 3,201 0.775 2,481 5.60 1.750 1,012 5-243 2008 3,201 0.775 2-481 2.50 1-750 1,012 5-243 2009 3,201 0.775 2,48)2.50 0 1,012 3,493 2329 3-201 0.775 2,481 9.09 0 1,012 3-493 208:3,201 0.775 2,481 0.00 0 1,012 3,493 POL2 3,201 0.775 2,482 0.00 1.750 1,012 5.243 Ook?3,202 0.775 2,482 2.50 0 1,012 3,493 L014 34292 O.795 2,4h)9.00 9 1,012 3,493 23 3,291 0.775 2-48]0.00 210 1,012 3.703 6 3-201 0.795 2,481 9.20 420 1,012 3,913 .3,201 0.775 2,48)0.69 8]1,022 3,493 i 3,201 0.775 2,481 9.00 0 1,012 3,493 34202 0.7795 2748 0.00 0 1,012 3,493 3.201 O.775 3.482 %.00 420 1,912 3.913 3,202 0.775 274%)0.69 0 1,012 3,493 aes 1201 0.775 2-481 9.00 1,750 1,012 5,243 STR 3,201 0.775 2,492 2.50 644 1,012 4,13? "HSS 34208 075 2.4L 9.97 9 1,012 3.493 2025 3,201 0.775 2,483 0.00 0 1,012 3,493 (3,964)(3.964) NPV(3.5):$81,242 NPV(4.5):$69,682 9LT UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM FLAN AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS MODERATE GROTH SCENSRTO BASE CASE.--MODIUM FUEL FRICE ESCALATION RATE, TOTAL IESE,FUEL FUEL FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT O&M SYSTEM FRODUCTION USE PRICE COST SCHEDULE CcOsT COST cost YOer (mun /yr)(1000 gal)($/gal)($1000)(Mw)($1000)($1000)($1000) 1985 13,663 1,139 0.876 997 0.00 0 1,012 2,009 2986 16,435 1,370 0.841 1,152 0.00 3.920 1,012 6,084 2997 19,233 1,603 0.842 1,348 5.60 1,750 1,012 4,110 .gF8 22,058 1,838 0.841 1,546 2.50 1,750 1,012 4,308 19eq 24,664 2.055 0.858 1,763 2.50 i)1,012 20773 1999 274279 2,273 0.875 1,989 0.00 0 1,012 3,001 199i 28,933 2,393 0.892 2,136 0.00 0 1,012 3,148 30,274 2¢514 0.910 2,289 0.00 1,750 1,012 5,051 31,638 2,636 0.928 2,448 2-50 0 1,012 3,460 33,2143 2.759 0.947 2,613 0.00 Q 1.012 3-625 34,609 2,883 0.966 2,785 0.00 210 1,012 4,007 34.917 2,910 0.985 2,867 0.230 420 1,012 4,299 35,246 2,937 1.005 27952 0.60 QO 1-012 3-964 23,389 2.966 1.025 3,040 9.00 oO,1,012 4,052 35,966 2,995 1.046 3,132 9.00 0 1,012 4,144 26,357 3,026 1.067 3,228 0.00 420 1,012 4,660 35.704 3,059 1.088 3,327 0.60 0 1,012 4.339 °37,106 3.092 1.110 3,431 0.00 1,750 1,012 6,193 ¢37,525 3-127 1.132 3,539 2.50 644 1,012 5.195 °37,961 3.263 1.154 3,632 0.92 tY)1,012 4,664 ¢32,415 3,201 1.178 3,770 0.00 (e]1,012 4,782 c 28,435 3,201 1.178 3,770 0.00 3.920 1,012 8,702 eae 38,435 3,201 1.178 3.770 5.60 1,750 1,012 6,532 2908 38,415 3,201 1.178 3.770 2.50 1,750 1,012 6-532 2998 38,415 3,201 1.178 3,778 2.50 0 1,012 4,782 "O12 38-415 3,201 1.178 3,770 9.00 0 1,012 4,782 POLS 386415 3,201 1.178 3,770 6.00 0 1,012 4,782 wOl2 38.415 3,201 1.378 34770 0.00 1,780 1,012 6,532 2013 38-415 3.201 1.178 3.770 2.50 0 1,012 4.782 3014 38,415 3,20).1.178 3,770 0.00 0 1,012 4.782 POS 38.415 3,201 1.178 3,779 0.00 210 1,012 4,992 1016 2B.415 3,201 1.178 3.770 0.30 420 1,012 5.202 205?38,415 3,201 1.178 3,770 0.60 0 1,012 4,782 29218 WW.4ls 3,201 1.178 3.770 0.00 te)1,012 4,782 Pore BE.40%3,202 1.178 3,770 0.00 0 1,012 4,782 2 38,435 3.201 1.178 3,770 9.00 420 1,012 3-202 39.435 3,201 1.178 3,779 0.60 (e)1,012 4,782 28.415 3,201 1.178 1,779 9.00 36730 1,012 6,532 29.415 3,292 1.278 3,770 2.50 644 1,012 5.426 JB 4ALS 120!2.178 3,779 9.92 9 1,012 4,782 38.405 3-201 3.278 oD 9.90 ie)2,012 4,782 (3.964)(3,964) NPV(3.3):$97,293 NEU(4.S):682,557 LLT YPer 3985 T9868 198? 1988 14909 2999 199% 1992 19923 1994 1995 1996 199° 1998 1999 2009 200) P02 2907 S004 aes 2906 2997 2oe8 MotaoNfobsWODOO8O38O9O13potbebwpeidiidbtNMteUNSLASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS MODERATE GROWTH SCENARIO BASE CASE---HIGH FUEL PRICE ESCALATION RATE abn /ye ) 12,663 26.435 19,273 22,958 24,664 27.279 2E,72) 30,174 31,638 33,113 34,690 34,917 35-246 35.389 35,946 36.317 36,704 37,106 37,525 37.962 38,415 38,415 38,413 78,415 38.415 38,415 38,445 18,415 38,415 28,415 38,415 38,415 38,425 FUEL USE (1000 gal) 1,139 1,370 1,603 1,838 2,055 2.273 2-393 2-514 2,636 2-759 2,883 2,910 2.937 2.966 2/995 3,026 3,059 3,092 3,127 3,163 3,202 3,202 3,202 3,201 3,201 3,201 3,20} 3,201 3-201 3,201 3,201 3-201 3,203 3.201 3,201 3.201 3,201 3,201 3,201 3,201 3,201 FUEL. TRICE ($/aal) 0.876 9.876 0.876 0.876 0.907 0.938 0.97 1.005 1.040 1.077 2.115 1.154 1.194 1.236 1.279 1.324 1.370 1.418 1-468 1.519 1.572 1.572 bote|NwAMNNNNON&°.woulUrutotWwNS deos|MWNNNWN..vetreelcedoeaonoodcelcoolcoedcoloeneloeoe'J:vrFUEL Cost (¢1cc0) 99? 1,200 1,404 1.610 1,863 2.133 26323 2,528 27743 2,971 3,214 3,336 3,507 3.665 3,831 4,006 4,190 4,385 4,589 4,605 5,033 3.033 3,033 3.033 5,933 5.033 5.033 5,033 5,033 GAR ADDITION/REPLACEMENT O&M SCHEDULE COST COST(148)($1000)($1000) 0.00 Oo 1,012 0.00 3,920 1,012 5.60 1,750 1,012 2.50 1,750 1,012 2.50 ©1,012 0.00 Oo 1,012 0.00 0 1,012 0.00 1,750 1,012 2.50 ®1,012 0.00 0 1,012 0.00 210-1012 _0.30 420.--:1,012 0.60 0 1,012 0-00 0,1,012 0.00 ©1,022 0.00 420 =--:1,012 0-60 o 1,012 0.00 1,750 1,012 2.50 644 =1,012 0.92 o 1,012 0.00 Oo 1,012 0.00 3,920 1,012 5.60 1,750 1,012 2.50 1,750 1,022 2.50 0 1,012 0.00 0 1,012 0.00 o 1,012 0.00 1,750 3,012 2.50 0 1,012 0.00 9 1,032 0.00 210 --1,012 0.30 420 --1,012 0.60 Oo 1,012 0.00 9 1,012 0.00 o 1,012 0.00 420 1,012 0.60 ©1,012 0.00 1,750 2,012 2.50 644 =1,012 9.92 Oo 1,012 0.00 Oo 1,012 (3,964) TOTAL SYSTEM cost ($1000) 2,009 6,132 4,166 4,372 2,875 3,145 3,337 5,290 3,755 3,983 4,436 4,788 4,519 4,677 4,843 5,438 5,202 7,147 6,245 5,817 6-045 9,965 7.795 7-795 6,045 6-045 6,045 7.795 6,045 6,045 6,285 6-465 6,045 6,045 6,045 6,465 6,045 7,793 6,689 6,045 *6,045 (3,964) NPV(3.5):$112,121 npy(4.5):$94,384 SLT UNALASKA/DUTCH PARSOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS MODERATE GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE A(2)- LOW FUEL PRICE ESCALATION RATE TRMAL,COMPONENT DIESEL COMPONENT _-wocwens tor eee cee eet on em eee coe oe cere wee ane ee,TOTAL TOTAL CEOTHERMAL CONSTRUCTION DIESEL FUEL FUEL FUEL ADDI'TION/REPLACEMENT TOTAL O&M SYSTEM Pre SUCTION COSTS PRODUCTION USE PRICE COST SCHEDULE COST COST COST |cosr YErR (uwh /yr)($1000)(MIn/yr)(1000 gal)($/gal)($1000)(Mv)($1000)($1000)($1000)($1000) 19as 0 0 13,663 1,139 0.876 99?0.00 0 997 1,012 2,009 1996 0 5,568 16,435 1,370 0.841 1,152 0.00 3920 5,072 1,012 11,652 y997 )7,832 19,233 1,603 0.807 1,294 5.60 1,750 "3,044 1,012 11,888 1988 0 4,536 22,058 1,838 0.775 1,425 2.50 1,750 3,175 1,012 8,723 1989 0 14,095 24,664 2,055 0.775 1,593 2.50 0 1,593 1,012 16,700 1999 24,551 0 2,728 227 0.775 176 0.00 0 176 1,275 1,451 199°25,849 0 2,872 239 0.775 185 0.00 0 185 1,275 1,460 1992 27,157 °3,017 251 0.775 195 0.00 )195 1.275 1,470 1993 78,474 0 3,164 264 0.775 204 0.00 0 204 1,275 1,479 1994 33,113 0 ;0 0 0.775 ft)0.00 [*)0 1,275 1,275 1995 33,113 0 1,488 124 0.775 96 0.00 210 306 1,275 1,582 1996 33,113 0 1,804 150 0.775 117 0.30 420 537 1,275 1,812 1997 33,113 0 2,133 178 0.775 138 0.60 0 138 1,275 1,413 1998 33,113 0 2-476 206 0.775 160 0.00 0 160 1,275 1,435 1999 33,113 0 2,833 236 0.775 "183 0.00 0 183 1,275 1,458 2ece 33,113 0 3,205 267 0.775 207 0.00 420 627 1,275 1,902 2002 33-113 0 3,591 299 0.775 232 0.60 0 232 1,275 1,507 2002 33.113 0 3,994 333 0.775 258 0.00 0 258 1,275 1,533 2003 33-113 )4,412 368 0.775 285 0.00 644 929 1,275 2,204 2004 33,113 0 4,848 404 0.775 313 0.92 0 313 16275 1,588 2ocs 33,113 0 5,302 442 0.775 342 0.00 0 342 1,275 1,617 "O06 33,113 0 5,302 442 0.775 342 0.00 3,920 4,262 1,275 5,537 2007 33,113 0 5,302 442 0.775 342 5.60 1,750 2,092 1,275 3,367 2008 33.133 0 5.30?442 0.775 342 2.50 1.750 2,092 1.275 3,367 200¢33,113 0 5,302 442 0.775 342 2.50 0 342 1,275 1,617 2919 33,093 0 5,202 442 0.775 342 0.00 f)342 1.275 1,617 2gll 33,113 0 5,302 442 0.775 342 0.00 0 342 1,275 1,617 ParD WLW )5,302 442 0.775 342 0.00 0 342 1,275 1,617 2013 33,213 0 5,302 442 0.775 342 0.00 0 342 1,275 1,617 7O14 WR13 0 5,302 442 0.775 342 .0.00 0 342 1,275 1,617 2025 33,123 0 3,302 442 0.775 342 0.00 210 552 1,275 1,827 2016 33,113 0)5,302 442 0.775 342 0.30.420 762 1,275 2,037 2017 33,113 0 5,302 442 0.775 342 0.60 0 342 1,275 1,617 2018 33,113 0 5,302 442 0.775 342 0.00 0 342 1,275 1,617 2919 33,113 0 5,302 442 0.775 342 0.00 0 342 1,275 1,617 2020 33,113 0 3,302 442 0.775 "342 0.00 420 762 1,275 2,037 202%33,113 0 5,202 442 0.775 342 0.60 0 342 1,275 1,617 2022 33,113 0 3,302 442 0.775 342 0.00 0 342 1,275 1.617 2023 33,113 0 5,302 442 0.775 342 0.00 644 986 1,275 2,261 2024 33,113 7)3,302 442 0.775 342 0.92 )342 1,275 1,617 2025 33,113 )3,302 442 0.775 342 0.00 0 342 1,275 1,617 (1,864)(1,864)(1,864) NPV(3.5):$75,694 NPV(4.5):$68,879 6LT UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS MODERATE GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE Af2)----4EDIUM FUEL PRICE ESCALATION RATE CROTHORMAL COMPONENT DIESEL COMPONENT see mee:---TOTAL ='TOTAL 7}CONSTRUCTION DIESE:.FUEL FUEL FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT §TOTAL O&M SYSTEM aD COSTS PRODUCTION USE --PRICE COST SCHEDULE cOsT COsT COST COST YEAR (nuin/yr )($1000)(muh/yr)(1000 gai)($/gal)($1000)(mw)($1000)($1000)($1000)($1000) 1985 0 0 13,663 1,139 0.876 997 0.00 0 997 1,012 2,009 1986 f)5,568 16,435 1.370 0.841 1,152 0.00 3,920 5,072 1,012 11,652 1983 rc)7,832 19,233 1,603 0.841 1,348 5.60 1,750 3,098 1,012 11,942 2988 0 4,536 22,058 1,838 0.841 1,546 2.50 1,750 3,296 1,012 8,844 1989 0 14,095 24,664 2,055 0.858 1,763 2.50 0 1,763 1,012 16,870 1990 24,532 0 2,728 227.(0.875 199 0.00 0 199 1,275.4774 199)23,849 0 2,872 239 0.892 214 0.00 0 214 1,275 1,489 'y992 27,157 0)3,017 251 0.910 229 0.00 4)229 1,275 =1,504 1993 28,474 0 3,164 264 =0.928 245 0.00 1)245 1,275 1,520 1944 33,113 ))0 0.947 0 0.00 0 0 1.275 91,275 1995 33,123 1)1,488 124 =:0.966 120 0.00 210 330 1-275 =-1,605 1996 33,113 0 1,804 150 -0.985 148 0.30 420 568 1,275 1,843 "1997 33,113 0 2.133 178s:1.005 179 0.60 ft)179 1,275 1,434 1998 33.113 0 2,476 206 =:11.025 212 0.00 0 212 1,275 =1,487 1999 34,212 0 2,833 236 1.046 247 0.00 )247 «1,275 1,522 2000 33,113 )3,205 267 =1.067 285 0.00 420 705 «1,275 1,980 2003 33,113 re)3,591 299 1.088 326 0.60 4)326 1,275 =1,601 7002 33,113 )3,994 3331.20 369 0.00 0 369 1,275 1,644 2003 33,113 0 4,412 368 1.132 416 0.00 644 1,060 1,275 2,335 2ec4 WALLS 0 4,848 404 1.154 466 0.92 ft)466 1,275 1,741 2005 33,313 0 5,302 442 1.178 520 0.00 )520 1,275 1,795 2906 33,133 +)5,302 442 -1.178 520 0.00 3,920 4,440 1,275 5,715 2007 PLA 3)5,302 442 1.178 520 5.60 1.750 2-270 1,275 3,545 2208 33,113 0 5,302 >442 1.178 520 2.50 1,750 2,270 1-275 3,545 neca 33,113 )5,302 442 1.178 520 2.50 )520.1,275 1,795 £920 33,213 0 3,302 442 1.178 520 0.00 1)520.1,275 1,795 POLt 33,113 0 5,30?442 1.178 520 0.00 0 520.1,275 1,795 2012 $4,213 )5,302 442 1.178 520 0.00 0 520 1,275 1,795 2913 33,123 0 5,302 442 1.178 520 0.00 1)520 1,275 1,795 2914 33.123 0 3,302 442 1.178 520 0.00 0 520 1,275 1-795 2018 33,113 )5,302 442 -1.178 $20 0.00 210 730 1,275 2,005 20:6 33,113 0 5,302 442?1.178 520 0.30 420 940 1,275 2,215 201?33,113 0 5,302 442 1.178 520 0.60 0 520 1,275 =1,795 2018 33,133 7)5,302 442 1.178 520 0.00 )520 1,275 1,795 2019 33,113 0 5,302 442 1.178 520 0.00 )$201,275 1,795 2920 33,113 7)5,302 442 1.178 520 0.00 420 940 1,275 2,215 2023 33,113 )3,302 442 1.178 320 0.60 )520 1-275 1,795 2922 33.113 0 5,302 442 1.178 520 0.00 )520.1,275 39-1795 2023 33,113 0 5,302 442 1.178 520 0.00 644 1,164 1,275 2,439 2074 33,113 )5,302 442,1.178 520 0.92 )520.1-275 1.795 2025 3B,LL3 )5,302 442 1.178 520 0.00 )$20 1,275 1,795 (1,864)(1,864)(1,864) NPV(3.5):$77,837 -NPV(4.5):$70,613 O8T UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS MODERATE GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE A(2)--HIGH FUEL PRICE ESCALATION RATE GHOTHERMAL COMPONENT DIESEL COMPONENT -coe TOTAL TOTAL GROTHERMAL,CONSTRUCTION DIESEL FUEL FUEL FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT TOTAL O&M SYSTEM om STON COSTS PRODUCTION USE PRICE COST SCHEDULE COST cost COST costw YENT sth /yr)($1000)(MWh/yr)(1000 vat)(S/gal)($1000)(MW)($1000)($1000)($1000)($1000) 19058 ie)0 13,663 1-139 0.876 997 0.00 ')997 1,012 2,009 LOEB 9 5.568 16.4235 1,370 0.876 1,200 0.00 3.920 5-120 1,012 12,700 2927 0 7,832 19,233 1,603 0.876 1,404 5.60 1,750 3-154 1,012 11,998 2983 [e)4,536 22,058 1,838 0.876 1,610 2.50 1,750 3,360 1,012 8,908 1989 ie]14,095 24,664 2,055 0.907 1,863 2.50 i)1,863 1,012 16,970 1990 24,551 0 2.728 227 0.938 213 0.00 9.213 1,275 1.488 399:23,849 0 2,872 239 0.971 232 0.00 0 232 1,275 1,507 2992 27-2457 0 3,017 251 1.005 253 0.00 °253 1,275 1,528 1993 22.474 0 3,164 264 1.040 274 0.00 0 274 1,275 1,549 1904 23,2113 Q 9 0 1.077 0 0.00 i)i)1,275 1,275 1993 33-113 0 1,488 124 2.115 138 0.00 210 348 1,275 1,623 1996 33,113 Q 1,804 150 1.154 173 0.30 420 593 1,275 1,868 199°33,113 0 2-133 178 1.194 212 0.60 i)212 1,275 1,487 1998 33,113 te)2.476 206 1.236 255 0.00 i')255 1,275 21,530 i999 33,113 i)2,833 236 1.279 4do2 0.00 0 302 1,275 1.577 2090 33,113 te)3,205 267 1.324 353 0.00 420 773 1,275 2,048 2007 33,113 0 3,592 .299 1.370 410 0.60 oO 410 1,275 1,685 "C02 33,113 te)3.994 333 1.418 472 0.00 Oo 472 1/275 1.747 2003 33,113 te)4.412 ,368 1.468 540 0.00 644 1,184 1,275 2,459 20C4 33,113 0 4,848 404 1.519 614 0.92 Qo 614 1,275 1,889 2005 33,113 0 5,302 442 1.572 695 0.00 )695 1,275 1,970 -2006 33,113 te)5,302 442 1.572 695 0.00 3-920 4,615 1.275 5,890 2007 33,113 ()5,302 442 1.572 695 5.60 1,750 2,445 1,275 3.720 20C8 33,113 te)5-302 442 1.572 695 2.50 1.750 2.445 1-275 3.720 2909 23,313 iy §-302 442 1.572 695 2.50 0 695 1,275 1,970 2010 33,233 Qo 5.302 442 1.572 695 0.00 oO 695 1,275 1,970 2033 33,113 Oo 5,302 442 1.572 695 0.00 0 695 1,275 1,970 2012 33,203 0 5.302 442 1.572 695 0.00 i')695 1,275 1,970 20?33,133 0 5-307 442 1.572 695 0.00 )695 1-275 1,970 SQL4 Well 0 53.302 442 1.572 695 0.00 te)695 1.275 1,970 2033 33,13 0 5,302 442 1.572 695 0.00 210 905 1,275 2,180 TO16 23,113 0 5,302 442 1.572:695 0.30 420 1,115 1.275 2,390 2237 33,1)3 0 5,302)442 1.572 695 0.60 0 695 1,275 1,970 "218 33,213 te)5,202 442 1.572 695 0.00 iy 695 1,275 1,970 2239 23,123 0 5,302 442 1.572 695 0.00 Qo 695 1,275 1,970 2029 33,113 9 5,202 442 1.572 695 0.00 420 3,115 2.275 2-390 2373 33,22 0 5.30?442 1.572 695 0.60 0 695 1,275 1,970 wO82 33,113 0 5,302 AA?1.572 695 9.00 0 695 1.275 °1,970 2022 33,113 fe)53>442 1.572 695 0.00 644 1,339 1.275 2,614 2024 ABs ie)3-302 442 1.572 695 0.92 0 695 1.275 1.970 2023 33,123 0 5,30?442 1.572 695 0.00 0 695 1,275 1,970 (1,864)(1,864)(1,864) NPV(3.5):$79,818 NPV(4.5)2 $72,204 I8T URNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS MONCP ATE GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE B(1)--LOW FUEL PRICE ESCALATION RATE GEOTHERMAL COMPONENT DIESEL COMPONENT TOTAL TOTAL SIPMAL CONSTRUCTION DIESEL FUEL FUEL FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT TOTAL O&M SYSTEM PPCOUCTION COSTS PRODUCTION OSE PRICE COST SCHEDULE COST COsT COST COST YEAR (Muh/yr)($1000)(MWh/yr )(1000 gal)($/gal)($1000)(Mw)($1000)($1000)($1000)($1000) 1905 0 0 13,663 1,139 0.876 997 0.00 0 997 1,012 2,009 1986 0 5,568 16,435 1.370 0.841 1,152 0.00 3,920 5,072 1,012 11,652 pogo 0 8,398 19,233 1,603 0.807 1,294 5.60 1,750 3,044 1,012 12,454 1988 9 6.913 22-058 1,838 0.775 1,425 2.50 1,750 3.175 1,012 11,100 rgRa 9 15,501 24,664 2-055 0.775 1,593 2.50 0 1,593 1,012 18,106 £990 766434 0 867 72 0.775 56 0.00 0 56 1,275 1,331 199°26,41)0 2,310 192 0.775 149 0.00 QO 149 1,275 1-424 992 26,411 0 3.762 314 0.775 243 0.00 QO 243 1-275 1,518 igar 26,431 0 5,226 436 0.775 338-0.00 QO 338 1-275 1,613 "SG4 16,4141 ie]6,702 558 0.775 433 0.00 0 433 1,275 1,708 2992 26-415 0 8,189 682 0.775 529 0.00 210 739 1,275 2,014 2098 26.412 0 8,505 709 0.775 549 0.30 420 969 1,275 2-244 yage 26-412 0 8,833 736 0.775 571 0.60 oO 571 1,275 1,846 1998 26,411 9 9.178 765 0.775 593 0.00 iY)593 1,275 1,868 1999 26,435 0 9,335 795 0.775 616 0.00 0 616 1,275 1,891 etere TRAD!ie]9,906 826 0.775 640 0.00 420 1,060 1,275 2-335 2 76,432 ie)10,293 858 0.775 665 0.60 0 665 1,275 .1,940 2 26-431 0 10,695 B9L 0.775 691 0.00 o 691 1,275 1,966 YR 76,411 (e)11,214 926 0.775 718 0.00 644 1,362 1,275 2.637 34 26.411 0 11,550 962 0.775 746 0.92 te)746 1,275 2,021 35 76-41)0 12,004 1,000 0.775 775 0.00 0 775 1,275 2,050 6 26.413 [)12,004 1,000 0.775 775 0.00 3.920 4,695 1,275 5,970 Oo??6,431 ie]12,004 1,000 0.775 715 5.60 1,750 2,525 1,275 3,800 2068 26.412 te)12.904 1,000 0.775 775 2.50 1,750 2-525 1,275 3,800 POe9 26-412 0 12,004 1,000 0.775 773 2-50 0 775 1,275 2,050 2510 76,421 0 12,004 1,000 0.775 775 0.00 0 775 1,275 2,050 20%!76-41)0 12,004 1,000 0.775 775 0.00-0 775 1,275 2,050 2012 26,411 0 12,004 1,000 0.775 775 0.00 0 775 1,275 2,050 2013 26,411 te)12,004 1,000 0.775 775 0.00 0 775 1,275 2,050 2914 26,411 9 12,004 1,000 0.775 775 0.00 Y)775 1,275 2,050 2015 26,411 0 12,004 1,000 0.775 775 0.00 210 985 1,275 2,260 PC1L6 26.411 0 12,004 1,000 0.775 775 0.30 420 1,195 1,275 2-470 2019 26,411 0 12,004 1,009 0.775 775 0.60 0 775 1,275 2,050 2018 26,411 ie)12,004 1,000 0.775 775 0.00 0 775 1,275 2,050 P09 26,431 0 12,004 1,000 0.775 775 0.00 0 775 1,275 2-050 2929 26,431 0 12,004 1,000 0.775 715 0.00 420 1,195 1,275 2-470 202;26,413 0 12,004 2,000 0.775 775 0.60 iY)775 1,275 2,050 7O22 264412 9 12,994 1,000 0.775 775 0.00 0 775 1,275 2,050 PORN 26,43)0 12-006 1,000 0.775 75 0.00 644 14419 1,275 2.694 1924 264421 0 i?,004 2.800 0.775 075 0.92 0 775 1,275 2,050 2025 26,431 0 12,004 2,009 0.775 775 0.00 0 775 1,275 2,050 (1,864)(1,864)(1,864) NPYV(3.5):$85,523 NPV(4.5)2 677,391 c8T URALASKA/DUTC!I!HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS MODERATE:GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE 8(1)--MEDIUM FUEL PRICE ESCALATION RATE GEOTHERMAL,COMPONFNT DIESEL COMPONENT ,TOTAL =TOTAL GFOTHERMAL CONSTRUCTION DIESEL FUEL FUEL FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT TOTAL Os8M SYSTEM PRONUCTION COSTS PRODUCTION USE --PRICE COST SCHEDULE cost cost cost cost YESR |(Ah/yr)($1000)(mwh/yr)(1000 gat)($/gal)($1000)(mw)($1000)($1000)($1000)($1000) 2985 ))13,663 1,139 0.876 997,0.00 0)997 1,012 2,009 T4R6 0 3,568 16-435 1,370 0.841 =1,152 0.00 3,920 5,072 2,012 11,652 1985 Q 8,398 19,233 1,603 0.841 1,348 5.60 1,750 3,098 1,012 12,508 29RR 9 6,913 22,058 1,838 0.841 1,546 2.50 1,750 3,296 1,012 11,222 1989 ¢15-502 24,664 2,055 0.858 1,763 2.50 0 1,763 1,012 18,276 1999 16.412 )B67 72°0.875 63 0.00 )63 1,275 1,338 199:26,4621 0 2,31¢192 0.892 172 0.00 ry 17200«275)1.487 sagt 26,422 )*3,762 3140.90 285 0.00 )285 1,275 1,560 992 26,423 0 5,226 436 =-0..928 404 0.00 0 404 1,275 1,679 1994 26,421 )6.702 558 0.947 529 0.00 0)529 1,275 =1,804 1695 26.411 0 8,189 682 0.966 659 0.00 210 869 -1,275 2144 996 36,412 )8.505 709 -0..985 698 0.30 420 1,118 1,275 2,393 1997 26.623 )8,835 736 =1.005 740 0.60.0 740 1.275 =2,015 2308 6,41])9,178 765 -2.025 7p4 0.00 1)784 1,275 2,059 1999 26,412 )9,535 795.1.046 831 0.00 0 831 1.275 2,106 2aco 26,421 0 9,906 826 1.067 880 0.00 420 1,300 1,275 =2,575 2001 26:41}0 10,293.858 21.088 933 0.60 0 933.1,275 =2,208 2902 26,413 )10,695 891 1.110 989 0.00 1)989 1,275 2,264 aoe.26,411 )1L,114 926 1.132 1,048 0.00 644 1,692 1,275 2,967 2oc4 26,412 0 11.550 962 1.154 LLL 0.92 Oo l,lll 1,275 2,386 2005 26,411 +)12,004 1,000 1.178 1,178 0.00,©1,178 1,275 2,453 2006 26,433 0 12,004 1,000 1.178 1,178 0.00 3,920 5,098 1,275 6,373 2007 26,411 0 12,004 1,000 1.178 1,178 5.60 1,750 «2,928 =14275 4-203 1008 26,411 0)12,004 1,000 1.178 1,178 -2.50 1,750 2,928 1,275 4,203 2009 26,412 0 12,004 1,000 1.178 1,178 2-50 0 1,178 1.275 2,453 2019 26,411 +)12,004 1,000 -1.178 1,178 0.00 ©1,178 1,275 2,453 2021 26,41)0 12,004 1,000 1.178 2,178 0.00 ©1,178 1,275 2,453 2912 26,411 0 12,004 1,000 1.178 1,178 0.00 0 1,178 1,275 2,453 2013 26,41)0 12,004 1,000 1.178 1,178 0.00 0 1,178 1,275 2,433 20146 28.4))0 12,004 1,000 1.178 1,178 0.00 ©1,178 1,275 2,453 2018 26,433 0 12,004 1,000 1.178 1,178 0.00 210 «1,388 =1,275 2,663 POL6 26.4th 9 12.004 1,000 1.178 1,178 0.30 420 1,598 16275 2,873 2017 26,412 +)12,004 1,000 1.178 1,178 0.60 0 1,178 1,275 2,433 918 76,423 9 12,004 1.000 1.178 --1,178 0.00 0 1,178 1,275 2,453 2or9 26,422 0 12,004 21,000 1.178 1,178 0.00 ©1,178 14275 2,453 2729 re 9 12,004 1,000 1.178 1,378 0.00 420 1.898 1,275 2,873 aga 26,423 0 12,004 1,000 1.278 1,178 0.60 ©1,178 1,275 2,433 men 26,423 )12,094 :.000 1.178 1,178 0.00 ©1,178 1,275 2/453 2023 26,412 6 12,094 1,000 1.178 1,178 0.90 644 1,622 1,275 3,097 na ALE 3)17,994 1,900 1.1781,7B 0.92 ©1,178 1,275 2,453 2024 26423 ©12,004 1,000 1.178 1,178 0.00 ©1,178 27h 2,452 (1,864)(1,864)(1,864) NPV(3.5):$90,215 NPV(4.5):$81,227 est UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS ;MODERATE GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNS TIVE SBS(1)--HIGH FUEL PRICE ESCALATION RATE CUOTHERMAL COMPONENT DIESEL COMPONENT were ee TOTAL TOTAL CONSTRUCTION DIESEL FUEL FUEL FUEL ANDITION/REPLACEMENT TOTAL O&M SYSTEM COSTS FRODUCTTON USE PRICE COST SCHEDULE COST cosT cosT cost VEER ($1000)(Mblh/yr )(1009 gal)($/gal)($1000)(MW)($1000)($1000)($1000)($1000) s 1905 G 0 13,662 1,139 0.876 997 0.00 0 997 1,012 2,009 La6 0 5,568 16.4%5 1,370 0.876 1,200 0.00 3,920 5,120 1,012 11,700 race G 8,398 19,232 1,603 0.876 1,404 5.60 1,750 3,154 1,012 12,564 LORS 0 6.913 22,058 1,838 0.876 1,610 2.50 1,750 3,360 1,012 11,285 T9as Qo 15,501 24,664 2,055 0.907 1,863 2.50 0 1,863 1,012 18,376 1999 36,435 )ah?72 0.938 68 0.00 0 68 1.275 1,343 199°26,4631 0 2,310 192 0.971 187.0.00 0 187 1,275 1,462 19G3 26,402 )3,762 314 1.005 315 0.00 cs)315 1,275 1,590 2992 26-41}0 5,226 436 1.040 453 0.00 0 453 1,275 1,728 299s 26-412 0 6.702 558 1.077 601 0.00 0 601 1,275 1,876 2a9s 26,4631 (e)8,189 682 2.115 761 0.00 210 971 1/275 2,246 998 26,4212 0 8,505 709 1.154 618 0.30 420 1,238 1,275 2,513 1997 26,413 0 8,835 736 1.194 879 0.60 ce)879 1,275 2-154 1998 26-411 (0)9,178 765 1.236 1945 0.00 te)945 1,275 2.220 199q 26/411 0 9,535 795 1.279 1,016 0.00 0 1,016 1,275 2,291 200 26,41)0 9,906 826 1.324 1,093 0.00 420 1,513 1,275 2,788 2003 26-411 °10,293 858 1.370 1,175 0.60 fe)1,175 1,275 2-450 2902 26,411 0 10-695 891 1.418 1,264 0.00 t)1,264 1,275 2,539 2003 26,411 0 11,114 926 1.468 1,359 0.00 644 2,003 1,275 3,278 2004 26,411 0 11,550 962 1.519 1,462 0.92 0 1,462 1,275 2.737 2005 26-441 0 12,004 1,000 1.572 1,573 0.00 0 1,573 1,275 2,848 "806 26-412 )12,004 1,000 1.572 1,573 0.00 3,920 5,493 1,275 6,768 200”26,411 0 12,004 1,000 1.572 1,573 5.60 1,750 3,323 1.275 4-598 20c8 26,413 0 12,004 1,000 1.572 1.573 -2.50 1,750 3,323 1,275 4,598 2Goe 26,412 0 12,004 1,000 1.572 1,573 2.50 i)1,573 1,275 2,848 26,411 0 12,004 1,000 1.572 1,573 0.00 te)1,573 1,275 2,848 26,413 0 12,004 1,009 1.572 1,573 0.00 0 1,573 1,275 2,848 26,41)f°)12,004 1,000 1.572 1,573 0.00 0 1,573 1,275 2,848 26,413 9 12,004 1,000 1.572 1,573 0.00 0 1,573 1,275 2,848 "BALL 0 12.094 1,900 1.572 1,573 0.00 (s)1,573 1,275 2,848 26,413 0 12,004 2,090 1.572 1,573 0.00 210 1,783 1,275 3,058 tH,ALL 9 12,904 1,000 1.572 1,573 0.30 420 1,993 1-275 3,268 26,415 0 12,004 2,000 1.572 1,573 0.60 0 1,573 1,275 2,848 6.4L 0 12,004 1,90 1.572 1,373 9.00 te)1/573 1,275 2,848 26,412 0 12,004 1,000 1.572 1,573 0.00 0 1-573 1,275 7,848 BA,ALL )12,004 1,009 1.572 1,573 0.00 420 1,993 1,275 3,268 76-413 0 32,004 1,200 1.572 1,573 0.60 (e)1,573 1-275 2,848 26.413 C 12,004 3,900 1.572 1.373 0.00 0 1,573 1,275 2.848 76,433 0 12.004 1,090 1.572 1.573 0.00 644 2.217 1,275 3,492 26,43 9 12,004 1,900 1.572 1,573 0.92 Ce)1,573 1,275 2,848 26,611 0 12,004 1,000 1.572 1,523 0.00 0 1,573 1,275 2,848 (1,864)(1,864)(1,864) NEV(3.5):$94,782 NPV(4.5):$84,782 y8T UNALASYA/OUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS MODCP TE GROWTH SCENARIO EY DROPOWER COMPONENT SEQ NER POUCT ION cin /yy )ylweoystostododwesuetotwouST,eeenera]roetewsTe|eC)CdTsTD."JhtAfyPoPBtotoofAt-ossos.VUDVMVODDADMAH#DODOoOwopDwawmwaoanrnaneanawowsNON0fee)BLTERN YTIVT DIESEL COMPONENT C(3)--LOM FUEL PRICE ESCALATION RATE CONSTRUCTION COSTS ($1000) 6,38 eooooocooo0o0ceo0co0coceoeaoocococoooeoocoeceoooooco0ceoooNoooDLESIE. PRODUCTION (Min/yr) 13,663 16,435 19,233 22,058 19,376 21,991 23,433 24,886 26,350 27,825 29,312 29,629 29,958 30,301 30,658 31,029 31,416 31,838 32,237 32.673 33-127 33.127 33,227 33.127 33,327 33-127 33,229 33-127 33,427 33,227 33,127 33,127 33,127 323,127 33,127 33,127 33,127 33,227 33-127 33.327 33,127 FUEL USS (1000 gal) 1,139 1,370 1,603 1,838 1,615 1,833 1,953 2.074 21196 2,319 2.443 2.469 2,49? 2.525 2,553 2,586 2,618 2,65? 2,686 2.723 2,761 2.761 2,761 2,761 2,761 2.761 2.761 2.761 2,76} 2.762 2,761 2.762 2.761 2,761 2)761 2,762 2,761 2,761 762 2,76} 2761 FUEL PRICE ($/gal) 0.876 0.841 0.807 0.775 0.775 0.775 0.775 0.775 0.775 0.775 0.775 0.775 0.775 0.775 0.775 0.775 0.775 0.775 0.775 0.775 0.775 0.775 0.775 0.775 0.775 0.775 0.775 0.775 0.775 0.775 0.775 0.775 0.775 0.775 0.775 0.775 0.775 0.775 0.775 0.775 0.775 FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT TOTAL COST SCHEDULE ($1000) 997 1.152 1,294 1,425 1,251 1,420 1,513 1,607 1,702 1,797 1,893 1,914 1,935 tebe1,980 2,004 2,029 2,055 2,082 2.110 2,140 2,140 2,140 2,140 2-140 2,140 2,140 2.140 2,140 2.140 2,140 2,140 2/140 2,140 2,140 2-140 2,140 2.140 2,140 2-140 2,140 (Mw) 0.00 0.00° 5.60 2.50 0.00 2-50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.50 0.30 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.60 0.00 0.900 0.92 0.00 0.00 5.60 2.50 0.00 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.50 0.30 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.92 0.00 cosT CosT ($1000)($1000) [e)997 3,920 5,072 1,750 3.044 0 1,425 1,750 3,001 (')1,420 0 1,513 0 1,607 0 1,702 1,750 3,547 210 2,103 420 2,334 0 1,935 i)1,957 0 1,980 420 2,424 0 2,029 0 2.055 644 2,726 (0)2,110 0 2.140 3,920 6-060 1,750 3,890 Qo 2-140 1,750 3,890 t)2-140 Qo 2,140 9 2.140 0 2-140 1,750 3,890 210 2,350 420 2-560 0 2-140 ')2,140 0 2.140 420 2.560 i 2.140 i)2.140 644 2.784 0 2.140 0 2-140 (2,739)(2,739) TOTAL OsM Cost ($1600) 1,022 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1-062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 NPV(3.5)s NPV(4.3):$69,507 TOTAL SYSTEM cost ($1000) 2,009 6.084 4,056 8,824 4,063 2-482 2-575 2,669 2-764 4,609 3,165 3,396 2-997 3.019 3,042 3,486 3,091 3.117 3,788 34172 3,202 7el22 4.952 3-202 4,952 3,202 3-202 3,202 3,202 4,952 3.412 3-622 3,202 3.202 3,202 3-622 3-202 3-202 3,846 3,202 3,202 (2.739) $80,245 S8T UNSLASKA/OUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS MODERATE GROWTH SCENSR1O ALTERNATIVE C(3)--MEDTUM FUEL PRICE ESCALATION RATE [YDROSOWER COMPONENT DIESEL COMPONENT we tee eee TOTAL TOTAL HYDPOPOWUTR CONSTRUCTION DIESE FUE FUEL FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT TOTAL O&M SYSTEM PPOMUCTION COSTS PRODUCTION USE PRICE COST SCHEDULE cost COST CcOsT cosT VEL Caih/yr)($1000)(MWwh/yc)(1000 gal)($/gal)($1000)(mw)($1000)($1000)($1000)($1000) 1985 0 0 13,663 1,139 0.876 997 0.00 0 997 1,012 2,009 ORG P))16,435 1,370 0.841 1,152 0.00 3,920 5,072 1,012 6,084 1987 0 0 19,233 1,603 0.841 1,348 5.60 1,750 3,098 1,012 4.110 2QAR 0 6,387 22,038 1,838 0.841 1,546 2.50 0 1,546 1,012 8,945 1929 5,288 0 19,376 1,615 0.858 1,385 0.00 1,750 3,135 1,062 4,197 1993 3,288 0 24,991 1,833 0.875 1,603 2.50 0 1,603 1,062 2,665 1992 5,288 0 23,433 1,953 0.892 1,743 0.00 0 1.743 1,062 2,805 992 3,288 0 24,886 2,074 0.910 1,888 0.00 0 1,888 1,062 2,950 1992 5,288 0 26,350 2,196 0.928 2,039 0.00 0 2,039 1,062 3,101 1994 5,2RR 0 27,825 2.319 0.947 2,196 0.00 1,750 3,946 1,062 5,008 1995 5,282 0 29,312 2,443 0.966 2,360 2.50 210 2,570 1,062 3,632 1996 =,288 0 29.629 2,469 0.985 2,433 0.30 420 2,853 1,062 3,915 1eQ7 5,288 0 29,958 2,497 1.005 2,509 0.60 0 2,509 1,062 3,571 HOR 5,288 0 20,301 2.525 1.025 2,589 0.00 0 2,589 1,062 3.651 1900 5,288 0 30,658 2,553 1.046 2,671 0.00 0 2,671 1,062 3,733 2209 5,288 9 321,029 2,586 1.067 2,758 0.00 420 3,178 1,062 4,240 POOL 5,288 0 31,416 2,618 1.088 2,848 0.60 0 2,848 1,062 3,910 5,288 0 32.818 2,652 1.110 2,942 0.00 0 2,942 1,062 4,004 5,288 0 32,237 2,686 1.132 3,041 0.00 644 3,685 1,062 4,747 3,288 0 32,673 2,723 1.154 3,143 0.92 0 3.143 1,062 4,205 5,288 0 33,127 2,761 1.178 3,251 0.00 0 3,252 1,062 4,313 5,288 0 33,127 2,761 1.178 3.252 0.00 3,920 7171 1,062 8,233 3 5,288 )33,12)2,76)1.178 3,251 5.60 1,750 5,001 1,062 6,063 38 3,288 0 33.127 7,761 1.178 3,251 2.50 0 3,251 1,062 4.313 Q 5,288 0 33.177 2,761 1.178 3,251 0.00 1,750 5,001 1,062 6,063 29 5,288 0 33,127 2,761 1.178 3.251 2.50 0 3,251 1,062 4.313 uh 5,288 0 33,127 2,761 1.178 3,251 0.00 0 3,251 1,062 4,313 >5,788 0 33,227 2.761 1.178 3.251 0.00 0 3,251 1,062 4,313 2023 5,288 )33,127 2,761 1.178 3,251 0.00 0 3,251 1,062 4,313 2014 3,288 0 33.127 2,761 1.178 3,252 0.00 1,750 5,001 1,062 6,063 7015 5,288 0 33,127 2,761 1.178 3,251 2.50 210 3,461 1,062 4,523 2916 5,288 0 33,127 2,761 1.178 3,251 0.30 420 3,671 1,062 4,733 2017 3,288 0 33,127 2,761 =-1.178 3,231 0.60 0 3,251 1,062 4,313 71k 5,288 0 33.127 2,761 1.178 3,251 0.00 )3,251 1,062 4.313 2019 5,288 0 33,127 2,761 1.178 3.231 0.00 0 3,251 1,062 4,313 2920 5,788 0 33,127 2,761 1.178 3,251 0.00 420 3,671 1,062 4,733 Dork 5,288 7)33,127 2.761 1.178 3,252 0.60 0 3,252 1,062 4,313 29022 5,?AB 0 23,327 2.761,1.178 3,251 0.00 0 3,251 1,062 4,313 2921 5,220 0 33,127 2,76)1.178 3,251 0.00 644 3,895 1,062 4,957 S34 a,288 0 33.127 2,763 1.178 3,252 0.92 0 3,251 1,062 4,313 2G25-5,282 0 33,127 2,762 1.178 3,252 0.00 0 3,251 1,062 4,313 (2,739)(2,739)(2,739) NPV(3.5):$94,011 NPV(4.5):$80,551 98T UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS MODFRATE,GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE C(3)--HIGH FUEL PRICE ESCALATION RATE HYDROPOWER COMPONENT DIESEL COMPONENT met nee ne ---TOTAL TOTAL HYDPOPQWER CONSTRUCTION DIESEL FUEL FUEL FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT TOTAL O&M SYSTEM PROMUCTION COSTS PRODUCTION USE PRICE COST SCHEDULE cost cost COST cosT YEAR (ih /yr )($1000)(Mulh/yr )(1000 gal)($/gal)($1000)(MW)($1000)($1000)($1000)($1000) P9e5 0 is)13,663 1,139 0.876 997 0.00 0 997 1,012 2,009 LOR is)0 16,4353 1,370 0.876 1,200 0.00 3,920 5,120 1,012 6.132 rag"0 ie)19,233 1,603 0.876 1,464 $.60 1,750 3,154 1,012 4,166 L9NB (o)6,387 22,058 1,838 0.876 1,610 2.50 (e)1,610 1,012 9,009 2929 5,289 0 19,376 1,615 0.907 1,464 0.00 1,750 3,214 1,062 4,276 "990 3,298 ie)1,991 1,833 0.938 1,720 2.50 ()1,720 1,062 2.782 299%5.288 (e)23,433 1-953 0.971 1,897 0.00 mm)1,897 1,062 2,959 1992 5,788 0 24,886 2.074 2.005 2,085 0.00 (*)2,085 1,062 3,147 1993 5,288 0 26,350 2,196 1.040 2,285 0.00 0 2,285 1,062 3,347 1994 5,288 0 27,825 2,319 1.077 2.497 0.00 1,750 4,247 1,062 5,309 Lees 3,288 0 29,312?2,443 1.115 2,722 2.50 210 24932 1,062 3,994 196 3,288 (¢)29,629 ,22469 1.154 2,848 0.30 420 3,268 1,062 4,330 1997 3,23 ie)29,958 2.497 1.194 °2,981 0.60 0 2,981 1,062 4,043 199 5,288 0 30,201 2,525 1.236 3.1,20 0.00 _0 3,120 1,062 4.182 79g 5,208 0 30,658 2,555 1.279 3,267 0.00 (u 3,267 1,062 4,329 2500 3,288 0 31,029 2,586 1.324 3,423 0.00 420 3,843 1,062 4.905 2992 5,288 [¢)31,416 2,618 21.370 3,587 0.60 0 3,587 1,062 4,649 Pon?5,288 0 32,818 2-632 1.418 3.760 0.00 i?)3.760 1,062 4,822 2903 35,2788 is)32,23?2,686 1.468 3,943 0.00 644 4,587 1,062 5,649 PEaI4 5,288 [?)32,673 2.723 1.519 4,136 0.92 0 4,136 1,062 5,198 2205 5,788 0 33,127 2,761 1.572 4,340 0.00 0 4,340 1,062 5,402 2006 3,288 0 33,127 2,761 1.572 4,340 0.00 3,920 8,260 1,062 9,322 2907 5,788 0 33,12?2,761 1.572 4,340 5.60 1,750 6,090 1,062 7,152 2008 5,288 0 33,127 2,761 1.572 4,340 2.50 oO 4,340 1,062 5,402 260?5,228 0 33,127 2,761.1.572 4,340 0.00 1,750 6,090 1,062 7,182 PO1O 3,288 0 33,127 2,761 1.572 4,340 2.50 0 4.340 1,062 5,402 Bor)5,288 0 33,127 2,761 1.572 4,340 0.00 0 4,340 1,062 5,402 QT?3,288 [¢)33,127 2.761 1.572 4,340 0.00 0 4,340 1,062 5.402 2033 5,788 0 33,127 2,761 1.572 4,340 0.00 0 4,340 1,062 5,402 5,288 i)33,127 2,761 1.572 4,340 0.00 1.750 6,090 1,062 7,152 3,268 is)33,127 2,761 1.572 4,340 2.50 210 4,550 1,062 §,612 3.788 0 33,127 2,761 1.572 4,340 0.30 420 4.760 1,062 5,822 3,288 [e)33,127 2,761 1.572 4,340 0.60 is)4,340 1,062 5,402 5,788 0 33,127 2.76)1-572 4.340 0.00 ()4,340 1,062 5,40? 5,288 0 33,127 2,761 1.572 4,340 0.00 0 4,340 1,062 5,402 et 2,298 0 33,127 2.761 1.572 4,340 0.co 420 4,760 1,062 5,822 2O!a,Pee ie)33,127 7,763 1-572 4,340 0-60 |(e)4,340 1,062 5,402 TRIED 5,288 9 32,12?3,761 1.572 4,349 0.c0 9 4,340 1,062 5,402 2O2?3,232 0 33,30?2,76}1.572 4,340 0.00 644 4,984 1,062 6,046 SO74 8,288 (°)33,127 2,762 1.572 4,340 9.92 0 4,340 1,062 5,402 2008 3,29°0 33,127 26763 1.572 4,340 0.00 0 4,340 1,062 5,402 (2,739)(2,739)(2,739) NOV(3.5)2S106-746 NPV(4.5):$90,696 L81 UN ALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWTR SYSTEM PLAN AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS HIGH GPOWTH SCENZ2£0 BASE CASE--LOW FUE.PRICE ESCALATION RATE TOTAL FUEL FUEL FORL AUD IETTON/REPLACEMENT OsM SYSTEM o JSE PRICE COST SCHEDULE COST cost cost (1000 gal)($/aai)($1990)(mw)($1000)($1000)($1000) nae 1,139 0.876 997 0.00 0 1,012 2,009 986 1,412 0.841 2,18?0.00 3,920 1,012 6.119 298 1,743 0.897 1,40?5.60 1,750 1,012 4.169 1988 2,070 0.775 14695 2.50 1,750 1,012 4,367 ]9e9 2-376 0.775 1,042 2.50 1,750 1,012 4,603 "990 2.689 0.775 7,084 2.50 0 1,012 3,096 £99)35,104 2-925 0.775 2,267 0.00 1,750 1.012 5,029 292 37,884 3,157 0.775 2.447 2.50 ie)1,012 3.459 1993 40,956 3,413 0.775 2,645 0.00 1,750 1,012 5,407 2994 44.331 3.694 0.775 2.863 2.50 0 1,012 3,875 1995 47,699 3,974 0.775 3-080 0.00 210 "1,012 4,302 1996 30,271 4,181 0.775 3,240 0.30 2.170 1,012 6,422 1997 54,508 4,542 0.775 3,520 3.10 1,750 1,012 6,282 L998 38,376 4,865 0.775 3.770 2.50 0,1-012 4.782 iga9 62,46?5,206 0.775 4,034 0.00 1,750 1,012 6.796 «009 66,804 3,567 0.775 4.315 2.50 2,170 1,012 70497 oO)71,437 5,951 0.775 4,613 3.10 [¢)1.012 5,625 Boo!76,334 6,361 0.775 4,930 0.00 1,750 1,012 7,692 2007 81,422 6.785 0.775 5,259 2.50 2,394 1,012 8,665 86,885 74240 0.775 5,612 3.42 1.750 1,012 8,374 92,765 7,730 0.775 5,99.2.50 t)1,012 7,003 92,/65 74730 0.775 5.991 Q.00 3,920 1,012 10,923 92.765 7,730 0.775 5,993 5-60 1.750 1,012 8,753 92,765 7.730 0.775 5.992 2-50 1.750 1,012 8.753 92,765 7,730 0.775 5,99)2.50 1,750 1,012 8,753 92,765 72730 0.775 3.992 2-50 0 1,012 7.003 92,765 7,730 0.775 5,997 0.00 1,750 1,012 8,753 92,765 7,730 9.773 5,992 2.50 9 1,012 7,003 92,065 7,730 0.775 5,992 0.00 1-750 1,012 8,753 92,765 7,730 0.775 5.991 2.50 9 2,012 7,003 92.765 7,730 0.775 5,992 0.00 210 1,012 7-213 a 92,765 7.730 0.775 =e99R 9.30 2,270 1,012 9.173 2 92.763 7,730 0.775 5,993 3.10 1,750 1,012 8,753 26038 92,763 74730 0.775 5,991 2-50 9 1,012 7-003 2O19 92,765 7,730 0.775 5,99)0.00 1,750 1,012 8,753 LS 92,763 7,730 0.775 3,992 2.50 2-170 1,012 9.173 PO28 92,765 7,730 0.775 5,991 3.10 0 1,012 7,003 7022 92,765 7,730 0.775 5,991 9.00 1,750 1,012 8,753 2023 92,765 7,730 0.775 5,99]2.50 2,394 1,012 9,397 2024 92,765 74730 0.775 5,991 3.42 1,750 1,012 8.753 2025 92,765 7,730 0.775 5,993 2.59 Q 1,012 7,003 (12,627)(12,627) NPV(3.5)2$131,728 NPV(4.5)2$110,476 88T UN "2D ASKS /SOUTCH HARBOR POMIER SYSTEM PLAN AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS BIG!GROWTH SCENARIO BASE CASE--MEDIUM FUEL.PRICE DSCALATION RATE TOTAL DIESIN.FUEL.FUEL FUEL 3°D9TION/REPLACEMENT O&M SYSTEM PRONUCTION USE PRICE COST SCHEDULE COST Cost COST vz2 Ge /yr)=(1000 gal)($/aal)($1000)(Mw)($1000)($1000)($1000) 2998 13,667 1,139 0.876 997 0.00 0 1,012 2,009 1986 16,941 1,412 0.841 1.187 0.00 3,920 2,012 6,119 1969 20,913 1,743 0.841 1,466 5.60 1,750 1,012 4,228 2928 24,844 2,070 0.84)1,74)2.50 1,750 1,012 4,503 1980 28,510 2,376 0.858 2,038 2.50 1.750 1,012 4,800 "999 22,763 2,689 0.875 2,352 2.50 0 1,012 3,364 199"35,104 2,925 0.892 2,611 0.00 1,750 4,012 5,373 1992 37,884 3,157 0.910 =.2,874 2.50 Oo 1,012 3,886 1994 40,956 3,413 0.998 =3,169 0.00 1,750 1,012 5,932 1994 64,33)3,694 0.947 3,499 2.50 ; 0 1,012 4,512 1995 47,690 3,974 0.966 3,839 0.00 210 «1,012 5,062 1996 a0,27)4,181 0.985 4,120 0.30 2.170 1,032 7,302 1997 54,508 4,342,1.005 4,563 3.10 1,750 1,012 74327 1998 28,376 4,865 1.025 4,987 2.50 0,1,012 5,999 1999 62,467 5,206 1.046 5,443 0.00 1,750 1,012 8,205 sae 46,004 5,367 1.067 5,937 2.50 2-170 1,012 9,219 2501 71,427 5,951 1.088 6,474 3.10 0 1,012 7,486 208?76,324 6,361 1.110 7,059 0.00 1,750 1,012 9,821 2001 81,422 6.785 1.132 7,680 2-50 2,394 1,012 11,086 zno4 86,885 7.240 3.154 8,359 3.42 1,750 1,012 11,12) regs 92,765 7,730 4.178 9,103 2.50 0 1,012 10,135 2596 92.763 7.730 1-178 9,103 0.00 3,920 1,012 14,035 2en7 92,765 7,730 1.178 =9,103 5.60 1.750 1,012 11,865 2ye8 92,765 7.730 1.178 9,103 2.50 2,750 1,022 11,865 2009 92,765 7,730 1.178 9-102 2.50 1,750 1,012 11,865 2010 92,765 7,730 2.278 9,103 2.50 0 1,012 10,115 282!92,765 7,730 3.178 9-103 0.00 1,750 1,012 11,865 2012 92,765 7,730 2.278 9,193 2.50 ©1,012 10,115 2013 92,765 7,730 1.178 =9,193 0.00 1,750 1,012 112,865 14 92,765 7.730 1.178 9,103 2.50 ©1,012 10,115 5 92,765 7,730 1.178 9,103 0.00 210 =1,012 =:10,325 92.765 7,730 1.178 9,102 0.30 2.170 1,012 12,285 92,765 7,730 1.178 =9,303 3.10 1,750 1,012 12,865 92,763 7,730 1.178 9,103 2.50 ©1,012 10,215 92,165 7,730 2.178 =9,103 0.00 1,750 =1,012 -12,865 92,765 7,730 1.178 9,103 2.50 2,170 1-012 12,285 92,765 7,730 1.178 9,103 °3.10 ©1,012 10,115 94.65 1,730 2.278 9,193 0.00 1,750 1,012 11,865 92,785 7,730 2.278 9,267 2.50 2,394 1,012 12,509 92,763 2,730 1.378 9,193 3.42 1,730 1,012 11,865 92,7645 7,730 1.478 9,103 2.59 0 1,012 10,115 (12,627)(12,627) NPV(3.5):$165,819 NPY(4.5)2S)37-,01)68T 2aqo "9Jesni3UNSLASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO BASE CASE--HIGH FUEL PRICE ESCALATION RATE PPONUCTION i Bis/yt) 13,663 16.941 70,923 74,844 26,4810 23,765 23,106 27,884 49,956 44,431 47,690 $9,173 534.508 38,376 62,467 66.804 PL,42? 16.334 81,422 26,885 92,765 92,763 92,765 97,765 92,764 92,763 92,765 92,765 92,765 92,765 92.765 92,765 92,265 02,765 Q?,765 yi,763 92,765 O2.°85 92,765 92,765 a2,765 FUEL USE (1000 gal) 1,139 1,412 1,743 2-970 2,376 2,689 2,925 3,157 3,413 3.694 3.974 4,181 4,542 4,865 5,206 5,567 5,951 6,361 6,785 7.240 7.730 74730 74730 7.730 7,730 74730 7,730 7,730 7,730 7,730 7.730 74730 7,730 7.730 7,730 7.730 7,730 7.730 7,730 7,730 7,730 FUEL PRICE ($/gat) 0.876 0.876 0.876 0.876 0.907 0.938 0.972 1.005 1.049 1.077 1.115 1.154 1,194 1.236 1.279 1.324 1.370 1.418 1.468 7.519 1.372 1.572 1.572 1.572 1.572 1.572 1.572 1.572 .oietowbteehebe5oeeeewouuaunoueaeiooeo|WohINBNOAD b-FUEL COST ($1000) 997 1,237 1,527 1.814 2,154 2,523 2,841 3.274 3,552 3,978 4,429 4,823 5-423 6.011 6,658 7,369 8,154 9,020 9,958 i0,998 12,153 12,153 12-153 12,153 12,153 12,153 12,153 12,153 12,153 42,153 12,153 12,153 12,153 12,353 =IJnPthd8uaWdiw*Js.bwbetcputiwbsBota.ptebseeadidtedWd.Soe=eesiANNITION/REPLACEMENT SCHEDULE COST (MW)($1000) 0.00 0 0.00 3,920 5.60 1,750 2.50 1,750 2.590 1,750 2.50 i?) 0.00 1,750 2.50 0 0.00 1,750 2.50 0 0.00 210 0.30 2,170 3.10 1,750 2.50 0 0.00 1,750 2-50 2,170 3.10 0 0.00 1,750 2.50 2,394 3.42 1,750 2.50 0 0.00 3,920 5.60 1,750 2.50 1,750 2.50 1,750 2.50 0 0.00 1,750 2.50 0 0.00 1,750 2.30 0 0.00 210 0.30 2.170 3.10 1,750 2.50 (9) 9.09 1,750 2.50 2.170 3.10 is) 9.90 1.750 7.50 2,394 4.42 1,750 2.50 ie) (12,627) O8M COST ($1000) 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1-012 1,012 1,012 1,012 ,1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1012 1,012 1.012 1-012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,022 1,012 1,022 1,022 1,022 1,022 1,032 1,012 NPV(I.5):5197,886© TOTAL SYSTEM cost ($1000) 2,009 6,169 4,289 4.576 4,916 3,535 5,603 4,186 6,313 4,990 5,651 8,005 8,185 7,023 9,420 10,551 9,166 11,782 13,364 13,760 13,165 17,085 14,915 14,915 14,915 13,165 14,915 13,165 14,915 13,165 13,375 15,335 24,915 13,165 14,915 15.335 13,165 14,9135 15,539 14,915 13,165 (12,627) WPU(4.5):2$162,621 O6T mar 1985 TOR6 1987 988 2934 1990 299° 1992 19a 1994 1995 1996 199% 1998 2999 20ec0 2052 2002 7003 2004 2095 2006 2007 >0ces Pade 79390 202) P12 POLY 2014 POTS P0l6 293? 29IR 2679 29279 2527. 2072 2032 POD4 2022 UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO GEOTHERMAL COMPONENT ALTERNATIVE A(5)--LOW FUEL PRICE ESCALATION RATE DIESEL COMPONENT GROTHERMAL CONSTRUCTION PROVUCTION (Muh /yr)oooo9029,039 31,593 34,096 36,860 39,898 42,921 49,256 49,058 $2,538 56,220 60,124 64,276 68.702 73,280 82,782 82.782 82.782 82,782 82,782 82,782 82,782 82,782 8?,782 82,782 82,782 82-782 82,782 82,782 82,782 82,782 62,782 @2,782 §2,782 82,7982 8,782 82,782 COSTS ($1000) ie) 5.568 8,966 9,300 17,809 eoooscooooccoocooecooec9ocoocoocoeoocoooceoeoosccoocdcsaDIESEL PRODUCTION (Muh/yr) 13,663 16,941 20.913 24,844 28,510 3,227 3,510 3,788 4,096 4,433 4,769 5.017 5,45} 5,838 6,247 6,680 7,142 7-633 8,142 4.103 9,983 9,983 9,983 9,983 9,983 9,983 9,983 9,983 9,983 9,983 9,983 9,983 9,983 9,983 9,983 9,983 9,983 9,983 9,983 9,983 9,923 FUEL USE (1000 gal) 1,139 1,412 1,743 2-070 2.376 269 293 316 341 369 397 418 454 486 521 557 595 636 679 342 832 832 832 832 832 832 832 832 832 832 832 832 832 832 832 832 832 832 832 - 942 832 FUEL PRICE ($/gal) 0.876 0.841) 0.807 0.775 0.775 0.775 0.775 0.775 0.775 0.775 0.775 0.775 0.775 0.775 0.775 0.775 0.775 0.775 0.775 0.775 0.775 0.775 0.775 0.775 0.775 0.775 0.775 0.775 0.775 0.775. 0.775 0.775 0.775 0.775 0.775 0.775 0.775 0.775 0.775 0.775 0.775 FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT COST SCHEDULE ($1000) 997 1,187 1,407 1,605 1,841 208 227 245 265 286 308 324 352 377 03 431 461 493 526 265 645 645 645 645 645 645 645 645 645 645 645 645 645 645 645 645 645 645 645 645 645 (Mw) 0.00 0.00 5.60 2.50 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00, 0.00 \ 0.00 0.30 0.60 2.50 0.00 2.50 0.60 2.50 2.50 3.42 2.50 0.00 5.60 2.50 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.30 0.60 2.50 0.00 2.50 0.60 2.50 2.50 3.42 2.50 cost ($1000) 0 (10.177)(10-177) TOTAL cost ($1000) 997 $,107 3,157 3,355 1,641 208 227 245 265 286 518 744 2,102 377 2,153 B51 2/211 2,243 2,920 2,015 645 4,565 2,395 2,395 645 645 645 645 645 645 855 1,065 2,395 645 2,395 1,065 2,395 2.395 3,039 2,395 645 TOTAL O&M Cost ($1000) 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1.275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1.275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 NPV(3.5): NPV(4.5): TOTAL COST ($1000) 2,009 11,687 13,135 13,667 20,662 1,483 1,502 1,520 1,540 1,561 1,793 2,019 3,377 1,652 3,428 24126 3,486 3,518 4,195 3,290 1,920 5,840 3,670 3,670 1,920 1,920 1,920 1,920 1.920 1,920 2-130 2-340 3,670 1,920 3,670 2,340 3,670 3.670 4,314 3,670 1,920 (10,177) $95,104 $86,100 T61 UNALASKA/DUTCH BARSOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE A(5)--MEDIUM FUEL PRICE ESCALATION RATE GEOTUNRMAL COMPONENT DIESEL COMPONENT : eeeenine cree emeree ieeemeee -TOTAL TOTAL CONSTRUCTION DIESEL FUEL FUEL FUEL ANDITION/REPLACEMENT TOTAL O&M SYSTEM COSTS PRODUCTION USE PRICE COST SCHEDULE COST COST cost COST ($1000)(MWh/yr)(1000 gal)($/gai)($1000)(Mw)($1000)($1000)($1000)($1000) 198s 0 0 13,663 1,139 0.876 997 0.00 "0 997 1,012 2,009 1986 $5,568 16,941 16422 0.841 1,187 0.00 3,920 5-107 1,012 11,687 292"i 8,966 20,913 1,743 0.841 1,466 5.60 1,750 3,216 1,012 13,194 LeAR 9 9,300 24.844 2.970 0.841 1,74]2.50 1,750 3,491 1,012 13,803 1929 c 17,809 28,510 2,376 0.858 2,038 2-50 0 2,038 1,012 20,859 2990 29,920 0 3,227 269 0.875 235 0.00 te)235 1,275 1,510 1992 31,592 0 3,510 293 0.892 261 0.00 tt)261 1.275 1,536 A492 324,996 Q 3,788 316 0.910 287 0.00 )287 2,275 1,562 tag 36,849 ie)4,096 341 0.928 317 0.00 0 317 1,275 2,592 1994 29,298 0 4,433 369 0.947 350 0.00 0 350 1.275 1,625 i995 42,921 0 4,769 397 0.966 384 0.00 210 594 1,275 1,869 1096 45-154 0 5.017 418 0.985 412 0.30 420 832 1.275 2,107 199?49,958 0 5-451 454 1.005 457 0.60 1,750 2,207 1,275 3,482 9ae 52,538 0 5,838 486 1.025 499 2.50 0 499 1.275 1.774 1999 36,220 0 6,247 521 1.046 544 0.00 1.750 2-294 1,275 3,569 2000 60,324 Y)6,680 557 1.067 594!2.50 420 1,014 1,275 2.289 2003 64,276 0 72142 595 1.088 647 0.60 1,750 2,397 1,275 3,672 2002 68,702 t')7-633 636 1.110 706 2-50 1,750 2,456 1,275 3.731 2003 73,280 °8,142 679 1.132 768 2.50 2,394 3-162 1-275 4,437 2004 82,782 0 4,103 342 1.154 395 3.42 1,750 2-145 1,275 3,420 2005 82,782 0 9,983 832 1.178 980 2.50 0 980 1-275 2,255 20C5 82.782 (y 9.983 832 1.178 980 0.00 3,920 4,900 1,275 6.175 2007 82,782 0 9,983 832 1.178 980 5.60 1,750 2-730 1,275 4,005 20C8 87,782 0 9,983 B32 1.178 980 2.50 1,750 2.730 1,275 4,005 2009 82,782 i)9,983 832 1.178 980 2.50 0 980 1,275 2-255 P70 62,782 9 9,983 832 1.378 980 0.00 0 980 1,275 2.255 201!22,782 90 9,983 832 1.178 980 0.00 0 980 1,275 2,255 Zor?8D,°7B2 i)9,983 832 1.178 980 0.00 te)980 1/275 2,255 2023 82,782 0 9,983 832 1.178 980 0.00 0 980 1,275 2-255 POL4 AZ.BR 0 9,983 32 1.178 980 0.00 0 980 1,275 2.255 2clt £2,782 0 9,983 832 1.178 980 0.00 210 1-290 1,275 2,465 BIG B2,782 0 9,983 832 1.178 980 0.30 420 1,400 1,275 2.675 2027?22,782 ie)9,983 832 1.178 980 0.60 1,750 2,730 1,275 4,005 2918 82,782 0 9.983 832 1.178 980 2.50 Q 980 1,275 2-255 POL 22.782 te)9,983 832 1.178 989 0.00 1,750 2-730 1,275 4,005 POND BD,782 0 9,983 832 1.178 980 2.50 420 1,400 1.275 2-675 2021 eo.0g9 0 9,983 832 1.178 980 0.60 1,750 2-730 1,275 4,005 2022 B2,782 0 9,983 8A2 1.178 980 2.50 1,750 2,730 1,275 4,005 2023 87,782 ie)9,983 $32 1.178 980 2.50 2,394 34374 1,275 4,649 2004 32,782 0 9.983 832 1.378 980 3.42 1,750 2-730 1.275 4,005 2025 82,732 0 9,983 832 1.178 980 2.50 0 980 1,275 2,255 :(10,177)(10,177)(10,177) NPV(3.5):$98,919 NPV(4.5):$89,156 261 YEAR 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 oNNNtSJoooaonNINheyopeUNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO GDOTHERMAL COMPONENT GIOTUERMAL CONSTRUCTION PROMOTIONo, (rvin/yr)ooo°0o0 29-039 31,593 34,096 36,860 29,898 42,92) 45.154 49,058 32,537 56,220 ©N.124 64,276 68.79) 73,280 82,782 82,782 82,782 82,782 82,782 82,782 82,782 82,782 82,782 82,782 82,782 82,782 82,782 82,782 82,782 82,782 82,782 82,782 82.782 82,782 @2,782 €2,782 COSTS ($1000) 0 5,568 8,966 9,300 17,809 oooocooocooocooooooeoooo9ocoecooocceaooecocecoseALTERNATIVE A(5)--HIGH FUEL PRICE ESCALATION RATE DIESEL COMPONENT DIESEL PRODUCTION (MWh/yr) 13,663 16,941 20,913 24,844 28,510 3-227 3,510 3-788 4,096 4,433 4,769 5,017 5,451 5,838 6.247 6-680 7,142 7.633 8,142 4,103 9,983 9,983 9,983 9,983 9,983 9,983 9,983 9,983 9,983 9,983 9,983 9,983 9,983 9,983 9,983 9,983 9,983 9,983 9,983 9,983 FUEL USE (1000 gal) 1,139 1,412 1,743 2-070 2,376 269 293 316 -341 369 397 418 434 486 52) 85? 595 636 679 342 832 832 832 §32 832 832 832 832 832 832 832 832 832 832 832 832 832 832 832 832 832 FUEL PRICE ($/gal)} 0.876 0.876 0.876 0.876 0.907 0.938 0.971 1.005 1.040 1.077 1.115 1.154 1.194 1.236 1.279 1.324 1.370 1.418 1.468 1.519 1.572 1.572 1.572 1.572 1.572 1.572 1.572 1.572 1.572 1.572 1.572 1.572 1.572 1.572 1.572 1.572 1.572 1.572 1.572 1.572 1.572 FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT COST SCHEDULE ($1000) 997 1.237 1,527 1,814 2,154 252 284 317 355 398 443 482 542 60 66 737 815 902 996 519 1,308 1,308 1,308 1,308 1,308 1,308 1,308 1,308 1,308 1,308 1,308 1,308 1,308 1,308 1,308 1,308 1,308 1,308 1,308 1,308 1,308 (Mw) 0.00 0.00 5.60 2-50 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.30 0.60 2.50 0.00 2-50 0.60 2.50 2.50 3.42 2.50 0.00 5.60 2.50 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.30 0.60 2.50 0.00 2.50 0.60 2.30 2.50 3.42 2.50 cost ($1000) 4) 3-920 1,750 1,750 210 420 1,750 0 1,750 420 1,750 1.750 2,394 1,750 0 (10.177)(10,177) TOTAL cosT ($1000) 997 5,157 3,277 3,564 2,154 252 284 317 355 398 653 902 2,292 601 2,416 1,157 2,565 2,652 3,390 2,269 1,308 5,228 3,058 3,058 1,308 1,308 1,308 1,308 1,308 1,308 1,518 1,728 3,058 1,308 3,058 1,728 3,058 3,058 3,702 3,058 1,308 TOTAL OSM cost ($1000) 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1-275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1.275 1,275 1,275 1,275 TOTAL SYSTEM Cost ($1000) 2,009 11,737 13,255 13,876 20,975 1,527 1,559 1,592 1,630 1,673 1,928 2,177 3,567 1,876 3,691 2,432 3,840 3,927 4,665 3,544 2.583 6,503 4,333 4,333 2,583 2,583 2,583 2,583 2,583 2.583 2,793 3,003 4,333 2-583 4,333 3,003 4,333 4,333 4.977 4,333 2,583 (10.177) NPV(3.5):$102,464 NPV(4.5)3 $91,975 €6T UNALASKA /OUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO ALTIRNATIVE B(3)--LOW FUEL PRICE ESCALATION RATE DIESEL COMPONENT CONSTRUCTION FUEL FUEL FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT COSTS PRODUCTION US=PRICE COST SCHEDULE COST YEEn ($1000)(Mulh/yr )(2000 gal)($/gal)($1000)(mw)($1000) o 0 13,6623 1,139 0.876 997 0.00 0 9 5,568 16,941 1,412 0.841 1.187 0.00 3.920 c 11,042 20,923 1,743 0.807 1,407 5.60 1,750 9 18,018 24,844 2,070 0.775 1,605 2.50 1,750 0 23,264 28,510 2,376 0.775 1,841 2.50 0 29,039 (e)3,22??69 0.775 208 0.00 0 31,593 0 3,510 293 0.775 227 0.00 0 34-096 0 3,788 316 0.775 245 0.00 te) 36,869 0 4,096 34.0.775 265 0.00 0 39,898 0 4,433 369 0.775 286 0.00 t) 42,921 0 4,769 397 0.775 308 0.00 210 43,154 ie)5.017 418 0.775 324 0.30 420 49,058 0 5,451 454 0.775 352 0.60 1,750 32,538 0 5,838 486 0.775 377 2.50 0 56,220 LY)6,247 S21 0.775 403 0.00 1,750 60,124 9 6.680 557 0.775 4s 2.50 2.170 64,276 0 7142 »$95 0.775 461 3.10 oO 68,702 0 7,633 636 0.775 493 0.00 1,750 78,349 0 2,582 215 0.775 167 2.50 2-394 7RLARAOD [e)8.045 670 0.775 520 3.42 1,750 78,840 te)13,925 1,160 0.775 899 2.50 i) 78,840 0 13,925 1,160 0.775 899 0.00 3,920 78 246 0 13,925 1,169 0.775 899 5.60 1,750 7A,AO 0 13,925 1,260 0.775 899 2.50 1,750 73,246 0 13,925 1,260 0.775 899 2.50 0 78,849 9 13,925 1,160 0.778 899 0.00 7B R4G ta)13,925 1,160 0.775 899 0.00 te) 5,840 9 23,925 1,160 0.775 899 Q.00 Q 78,840 0 13,925 2,160 0.775 899 0.00 0 78,B40 9 £3,925 1,160 0.775 899 0.00 0 7E,869 i]13,925 1,169 0.775 899 0.00 210 TALL AO 0 13,925 1,160 0.775 899 _0.30 420 72°40 0 13,925 1,160 0.775 899 0.60 1,750 78,840 te)$3,925 1.160 0.775 899 2.50 9 78,849 ce)13,925 1,160 0.775 899 0.00 1,750 78.849 0 13,923 1,160 0.775 899 2.50 2,170 78,840 9 13,925 1,269 0.775 899 3.10 0 78,840 0 23,923 1,160 0.775 899 0.00 1.750 78,840 0 13,925 1,160 0.775 899 2.50 22394 78,840 0 13,925 1,169 0.775 899 3.42 1,750 78,840 0 13,925 2,160 0.775 899 2.50 9 (10,089)(10,089) TOTAL COST ($1000) 997 5,107 3,157 3,355 1,841 208 227 245 265 286 518 744 2-102 377 2-153 2,601 461 2,243 2-561 24270 899 4,819 2,649 2,649 899 899 899 899 899 899 1,109 1,319 2.649 899 2,649 3,069 899 2-649 3,293 2.649 899 TOTAL O&M cost ($1000) 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1.275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1.275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1.275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 TOTAL SYSTEM COST ($1000) 2,009 11,687 15-21) 22,385 26,117 1,483 1,502 1,520 1,540 1,561 1,793 2,019 3,377 1,652 3,428 3,876 1,736 3,518 3,836 3,545 2:174 6,094 3,924 3,924 26174 2,174 2,174 2.174 2,174 20174 2-384 2,594 3,924 2,174 3,924 4,344 24174 3,924 4,568 3,924 26174 (10,089) NPV(3.5):$111,061 NPV(4.5)$101,038 v6 UNS LASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE 2(%)--MEDTUM FUEL PRICE ESCALATION RATE GLOTHERMAL COMPONENT DIESEL COMPONENT wae ee en eee cae ee ee ee eee --on TOTAL =TOTALWALCONSTRUCTIONDITSELFULLFUELFUELADDITION/REPLACEMENT §TOTAL O&M SYSTEM COON COSTS PRODUCTION USE --PRICE COST SCHEDULE COST COST cost COSTYF22(Mn /yr)($1000)(Muir/yr)(1000 gal)($/gal)($1000)(Mw)($1000)($1000)($1000)($1000) 1985 0 1)13,663 1,139 0.876 997 0.00 0 997 1,012 2,009 Lane n)5.568 16,941 1,412 0.841 1,187 0.00 3.920 5,107 1,012 11,687 1987 0 11,042 20,913 1,743 0.841 =,466 5.60 1,750 3,216 1,012 15,270 9AA ")18,018 24,844 2-070 0.841 1,741 2.50 1,750,3,491 1,012.)22,521 1989 0 23,264 28,510 2-376 0.858 2,038 2.50 0 2,038 1,012 26,324 1990 29,039 ry 3,227 269 0.875 235 0.00 )235°«1,275 -1,510 199:31,593 te]3-310 293 0.892 261 0.00 (]261 1,275 1,536 1997 34,096 7)3,788 316 =0.90 287 0.00 0 287 «2751562 1993 36,860 ry 4,096 34h 0.928 317 0.00 0 317.16275.,592 1994 39,898 ry 4,433 369 0.947 350 0.00 )350 «1,275.8 625 1995 42,921 0 4.769 397 0.966 384 0.00 210 $94 1,275 1,869 1996 45,154 )5,017 418 0.985 412 0.30 420 832 1,275 2.107 1999 49,058 +)5,451 454 =1.005 457.-s 0.60 1,750 2,207.1,275 3,482 199A 32,538 0 3,838 486 =1.025 499 2.50 0 499 1,275,774 999 56,220 0 6,247 521 1.046 544 0.00 1,750 2,294 =1,275.3,569790060,124 0 6,680 557 1.067 594 2.50 20170 2,764 1,275 4,039 202:54,276 0 7,142 595 1.088 647 3.10 0 647 1,275 =1,922290268,701 )7,633 636 =:1.110 706 0.00 1,750 «2,456 1,275)3-731Brack)78,940 0 2,582 215 1.132 244 2.50 2,394 2,638 1.275 3,923 2204 78.840 0 8,045 670 1..154 774 3.42 1,750 2,524 15275 3,799 7005 78,840 )13,925 1,160 1.178 1,366 2.50 ©1,366 1.275 2,641 506 "8,940 0 13,925 1.160 1.178 1,366 0.00 3,920 5,286 1,275 6,561 297 78,840 0 13.925 1/160 1.178 =,366 5.60 1,750 3,116 1,275 4,393 2008 73,840 n)13,925 4,160 1.178 1,366 2.50 1,750 34116 =275 4,39299973,840 0 13,925 1,160 1.178 1,366 2.50 ©1,366 1,275 2,641 =910 78,840 )13.925 1,360 1.178 =,366 0.00 ©1,366 1,275 2,641 2012 78,240 rs)13,925 1,160 1.178 1,366 0.00 0 1,366 1/275 2,641 2912 78.840 0 13,925 1,160 1.178 1,366 0.00 0 1,366 1,275 2,64) 2012 73,840 0 13,925 1,160 1.178 2,366 0.00 0 1,366 1.275 2,641 m4 1,840 Q 13,925 1,160 1.178 1,366 0.00 0 1,366 1,275 2,642 aers 78,840 0 13,925 1,160 1.178 =1,366 0.00 210 «1,576 =2752 BS201678,840 0 13,925 1,160 1.178 1,366 0.30 420 1,786 =1,275 3,062 2977 78,849 +)13,925 1,360 1.278 1,366 0.60 1,750 3,116 2-275 4,391 1018 78,840 0 13,925 1,160 1-178 1,366 2.50 ©1,366 1,275 2,641 2014 78,849 7)13,925 1,160 1.178 1,366 0-00 1,750 34126 1275)4,3912929018.840 0 13,925 1,160 1.178 1,366 2.50 2.170 3,536 1,275 4,811 2021 78,B40 0 13,925 |1,160 1.178 1,366 3.10 0 1,366 1-275 2,641 2022 8,B40 0 13,925 1,360 1.178 1,366 0.00 -1,750 3,116 2,275 4,392 2022 78,849 0 13,923 1,160 1.178 1,366 2.50 2,394 3,760 1,275 5,0352924878,840 0 13,925 1,160 1.178 1,366 3.42 1,750 3.116 1,275 4,391 2025 1,BGS ry 13,925 1,160 1.178 1,366 2.50 ©1,366 1,275 2,641 (10,089)(10,089)(10,089) NPV(3.5)2$115,829 NPV(4.5):$104,810 S6T UNA LASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS HUGH GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE B(3)--HIGH FUEL PRICE ESCALATION RATE GEOTHD?AL COMPONENT DIESEL COMPONENT GUOTHERMAL -CONSTRUCTION DIESEL FUEL FUEL FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT PROPLCT TON COSTS PRODUCTION USE PRICE COST SCHEDULE cost VIER (Muh/yr)($1000)(mMun/yr)(1000 gal)($/gal)($1000)(Mw)($1000) 0 0 13,663 1,139 0.876 997 0.00 0 o 5,568 16,941 1,412 0.876 1,237 0.00 3,920 0 11,042 20,913 1,743 0.876 1,527 5.60 1,750 9 18,018 24,844 2,070 0.876 1,814 2.50 1,750 0 23,264 28,510 2,376 0.907 2,154 2.50 1) 29,039 +)3,227 269 =0.938 252 0.00 0 31,593 )3,510 293.0.972 284 0.00 +) 24,096 0 3.788 316 1.005 317 0.00 ) 26,260 )4,096 341 1.040 355 0.00 ) 29,898 )4,433 369 =-1.077 398 0.00 1) 42,923 0 4,769 397 2.115 443 0.00 210 43,154 )3,017 418 1.154 482 0.30 420 49,058 )5,451 454 1.194 542 0.60 1,750 82,538 )5,838 486 1.236 601 2.50 0 56,229 0 6,247 521 1.279 666 0.00 1,750 pO,124 0 6,680 357 1.324 737 2.50 2.170 64,276 +)7,142 595 1.370 815 3.10 0 5B,791 )7,633 636 1.418 902 0.00 1,750 78,840 )2,582 215 1.468 316 2.50 2,394 78,940 +)8,045 &70 1.519 1,018 3.42 1,750 ,78,840 )13,925 1,160 1.572 1,824 2.50 4) "78.840 ry 13,925 4,160 1.572 1,824 0.00 3,920 2 78,840 0 13,925 1,160 1.572 1,824 5.60 1,750 anos 78.840 )13,923 1,160 1.572 1,824 2.50 1.750 rea 78,840 0 13,925 1,160 1.572 1,824 2.50 0 2310 7A.840 )13,925 1,160 1.572 1,824 0.00 ft) 2022 78,840 0 13,925 1.160 1.572 1,824 0.00 0 201?18,840 0 13,925 1.160 1.572 1,824 0.00 0 2013 78,840 0 13,925 1,160 1.572 1,824 0.00 0 se14 78,840 4)13,975 1,160 1.572 1,824 0.00 0 2015 78,840 )13,925 1,160 1.572 1,824 0.00 210 PULA 8,840 )13,925 1,160 1.572 1,824 0.30 420 2017 78,2840 0 13,925 1,160 1.572 1,824 0.60 1,750 Bre 1B,RAD 0)13,925 1,160 1.572 1,824 2.30 0 2010 78,840 0 13,925 1,160 1.572 1,824 0.00 1,750 2020 8,49 mn)13,925+1,160 1.572 1,824 2.50 2,170 2021 7B 240 0 LV924 1369 1.572 1,824 3.10 0 2922 "8,BAO 3)13,925 1,160 4.572 1,824 0.00 1,750 2023 FE,BLS 0 13,925 1,260 1.572 4,824 2.50 2,394 2a?2B,BAD a)13.925 £,460 1.572 1,824 3.42 1,750 2025 78,B40 0 13,923 1,160 1.572 1,824 2.50 0 (10,089)(10,089) TOTAL cOosT ($1000) 997 5,157 3.277 3.564 2,154 252 284 317 355 398 653 902 2,292 601 2,416 2,907 815 2.652 2,710 2,768 1,824 5.744 3,574 3.574 1,824 1,824 1,824 1,824 1,824 1,824 2,034 2,244 3,574 1,824 3,574 3.994 1,824 3,574 4,218 3,574 1,824 TOTAL .O&M COST ($1000) 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1.275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275. 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1,275 1-275 TOTAL SYSTEM cost ($1000) 2,009 11.737 15,331 22,594 26,430 1,527 1,559 1,592 1,630 1,673 1,928 2.177 3,567 1,876 3,691 4,182 2,090 3,927 3,985 4,043 3,099 7,019 4,849 4,849 3,099 3,099 3,099 3,099 3,099 3.099 3,309 3,519 4,849 3,099 4,849 5,269 3,099 4,849 5,493 4,849 3,099 (10,089) NPV(3.5)2$120,310 NPY(4.5):$108,331 96T UNALASKA/DUTCH!HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS HIGH GROWTH SCENARTO ALTERNATIVE C(3)--LOW FUEL PRICE ESCALATION RATE HYDROPOWER COMPONENT DIESEL COMPONENT ee te ee nee cree oo TOTAL TOTAL CONSTRUCTION DOTESEL FULL FUEL FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT TOTAL O&M SYSTEM COSTS PRODUCTZON Use PRICE COST SCHEDULE cosT COST COST cost ($1000)(Mvin/yx )(1000 gat)($/gal)($1000)(Mw)($1000)($1000)($1000)($1000) 2985 C [e)13,663 1,139 0.876 997?0.00 0 997 1,012 2,009 19%6 9 0 26,94)1.412 0.841 1,187 0.00 3,920 5.107 1,012 6.119 1987 i](4)20,913 1,743 0.807 1,40?5.60 1,750 3,157 1,012 4,169 TARE 9 6,387 24.844 2-070 0.775 1,605 2.50 1,750 3-355 1,012 10,754 1989 5,288 0 23,222 1,935 0.775 1,500 2.50 0 1,500 1,062 2,562 L79dy 5.288 te)26.977 2,248 0.775 1,742 0.00 1,750 3-492 2,062 4,554 29@.3,283 0 29,816 2,485 0.775 1,926 2.50 0 1,926 1,062 2,988 1992 5,288 0 32,596 2.716 0.775 2,105 0.00 1,750 3,855 1,062 4,917 299)5,288 ie)35,668 2,972 0.775 2,304 2-50 .9 2,304 1,062 3-366 1994 3,288 Q 39,043 3.254 0.775 2,522 0.00 1,750 4.272 1.062 5,334 21995 5,288 0 42,402 3,533 0.775 2.739 2.50 210 2,949 1,062 4,011 1998 5,288 0 44,883 3.740 0.775 2.899 0.30 2,170 5,069 1,062 6.131 1aq?5,288 0 49.220 4,102 0.775 -3,179 3.10 0 3,179 1,062 4-241 1998 5,288 (Y)53,088 4.424 0.775 3,429 0.00 1.750 5,179 1,062 6-241 1999 5,288 0 57,179 4,765 0.775 3,693 2.50 1,750 5.443 1,062 6,505 29090 5,288 0 61,516 5,126 0.775 3,973 2.50 420 4,393 1,062 5-455 2002 5,282 0 66,129 5,511 0.775 4,271 0.60 1,750 6,021 1,062 7,083 2Cc2 5,288 t)71,046 5,92)0.775 4,589 2.50 1,750 6,339 1.062 7,401 2008 5,238 0 765134 6,344 0.775 4.917 2.50 2,394 Fed 1,062 8,373 fo04 5,288 Oo 81,597 6,800 0.775 5,270 3.42 1,750 7.020 1,062 8,082 2005 5,288 0 87,477 7,290 0.775 5,650 2.50 0 5-650 1,062 6-712 20906 3,788 i)87,477 7-290 0.775 5-650 0.00 3.920 9,570 1,062 10,632 2007 5,288 0 87,477 7,290 0.775 5,650 5.60 °1,750 7,400 1,062 8,462 2008 5,288 0 87,477 7,290 0.775 5.650 2.50 1,750 7,400 1,062 8.462 2009 5,288 0 87,477 7,299 0.775 5,650 2.50 0 5,650 1,062 6,712 2929 8,288 0 87,477 7-290 0.775 5-650 0.00 1,750 7,400 1,062 8,462 cone 5,788 te)87,477 *7,299 0.775 5,650 2.50 Qo 5,650 1,062 6.712 2022 5,288 [°)87,477 7.290 0.775 5,650 0.00 1,750 7,400 1,062 8.462 2023 3,288 0 87.477 7,299 0.775 5,650 2.50 t+)5,650 1,062 6,712 aol4 3.268 {0)87,477 7.290 0.775 5,650 0.00 1,750 7,400 1,062 8.462 POLS 3,788 t)87,479 7,290 0.775 5,650 2-50 210 5,860 1,062 6,922 2008 3,268 9 87,477 7,290 9.775 5,650 0.30 2-170 7.820 1,062 8,882 231?5,728 ie]87,477 7,290 0.775 5,650 3.10 0 5,650 1,062 6,712 2918 2,286 9 87,477 7,290 0.775 5.650 0.00 1,750 7,400 1,062 8,462 2079 5,288 0 87,477 7,299 0.775 5,650 2.50 1.750 7,400 1,062 8,462 1023 5.298 te)87,477 7,290 0.775 5,650 2.50 420 6,070 1,062 74132 Pos 5,283 (4)87,477 7,290 0.775 5,650 0.60 1,750 7,400 1,062 8,462 2oS2 3,288 0 87.477 7,290 0.775 5.650 2.50 1,750 7.400 1,062 8,462 2023 3-282 c 87,479 7,299 0.775 5,650 2.59 2,394 8.044 1,062 9.106 2024 5,288 0 87.477 7,299 9.775 5.650 3.42 1,750 7,400 3,062 8,462 2025 5,282 [e)87,477 7,290 0.775 5,650 2.590 0 5,650 1,062 '6,712 (13,064)(13,064)(13,064) NPV(3.5)$131,647 NPV(4.5):$111,048 L6T YEER 2985 L986 198° L988 1999 2999 19a. 1aqy 1gaa 2994 1995 1996 1997 lgiycstye6O63O&ny"bowtaUNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO LYLE OFOWER COMPONENT CONSTRUCTION COSTS ($1000) 6,38 ooo000ceco0cococoooco0ooococoooocoooococcooooococ0ONOO86ALTERNATIVE C(3)---MEDIUM FUEL PRICE ESCALATION RATF. DITSEL PRODUCTION (mh /yr) 13,663 36,941 20,913 24,844 23,222 26,977 29,816 32-596 35,668 39,043 42,402 44,883 49,220 53,088 57,179 61,516 66,129 71,046 76,134 81,597 87,477 87,477 87,477 87,477 87,47? 87,477 87.477 87.477 87,47? 87,47) 87,477 87,477 87,477 87.477 87,477 87,47) 87,477 87,477 87,477 26477? 87,47? DIESEL COMPONENT FUSL OemUse (1000 oat) 1,139 1,412 1,743 2-070 1,935 2,248 2,485 2,716 2-972 3,254 3,533 3,740 4,102 4,424 4,765 54126 5,511 3.921 6,344 6,800 7,290 7.290 7,290 76290 7,290 77290 7,290 7.290 72299 44290 7-299 7,290 7,296 74290 7,290 7,290 7,299 74290 7,290 7,290 7,290 FUEL PRICE ($/gal) 0.876 0.841 0.841 0.841 0.858 0.875 0.892 0.910 0.928 0.947 0.966 0.985 1.005 1.025 1.046 1.067 1.088 1.110 1.132 1.154 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 1.178 FUEL,ADDITION/REPLACEMENT COST SCHEDULE cost ($1000)(Mw)($1000) 997 0.00 0 1,187 0.00 3.920 1,466 5.60 1,750 1,741 2.50 1,750 1,660 2.50 0 1,967 0.00 1,750 2,217 2.50 Qo 2-473 0.00 1,750 2.760 2-50 i) 3,082 0.00 1,750 3-413 2.50 210 3,685 0.30 2,170 4,122 3.10 0 4,585 0.00 1-750 4,982 2.50 1,750 5,467 2.50 420 5,995 0.60 1,750 6,570 2.50 1,750 7,181 -2-50 2,394 7,850 3.42 1,750 8,584 2.50 i) 8,584 0.00 3,920 8,584 5.60 1,750 8,584 2.50 1,750 8,584 2.50 0 8.584 0.00 1,750 8,584 2.50 0 8,584 0.00 1,750 8,584 2.50 0 8,584 0.00 1,750 8-584 2.50 210 8,584 0.30 2-170 8,584 3.10 0 8,584 0.00 1.750 8,584 2.50 1,750 8,584 2.50 420 8,584 0.60 1,750 8,584 2.30 1,750 8,584 2.50 24394 8,584 3.42 1,750 8,584 2-50 te) (13-064)(13,064) TOTAL cost ($1000) 997 5.107 34216 3,491 1,660 3,717 2,217 44223 2-760 4,831 3,623 5,855 4,122 6,285 6,732 5,887 7745 8,320 9,575 9,600 8,584 12,504 10,334 10,334 8,584 10,334 8,584 10.334 8,584 10,334 8,794 10,754 8,584 10,334 10-334 9,004 10,334 10,334 10,978 10,334 8,584 TOTAL O&M COsT ($1000) 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,012 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 TOTAL SYSTEM COST ($1000) 2,009 6.119 4,228 10,890 2.722 4,779 3,279 5,285 3,822 5,893 4,685 6.917 5,184 7,347 7,794 6,949- 8,807 9,382 10,637 10-662 9,646 13,566 11,396 11,396 9,646 11,396 9,646 11,396 9,646 11,396 9,856 11,816 9,646 11.396 11,396 10,066 11,396 11,396 12,040 11,396 9,646 (13,064) NPV(3.5)$163,452 NPV(4.5)2$136,142 861 UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POWER SYSTEM PLAN AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS BTGH GROWTH SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE C(3)----HTGH FUEL PRICE ESCALATION RATE ENDPOCCHER COMPONENT DIESEL.COMPONENT Ft ae err em ene er te ee ce oe oe cm re mere TOTAL TOTAL EVDPOSCMIER =CONSTRUCTION DIESEL FUEL FUEL FUEL ADDITION/REPLACEMENT TOTAL O&M SYSTEM PROUICUTION COSTS PRODUCTION OSE PRICE COST SCHEDULE Cost COST cost COSTYEN:(rath fy)($1000)(Mvh/yr)(2000 ga!)($/gal)($1000)(vi)($1000)($1000)($1000)($1000) 1985 [e)0 13,663 1,139 0.876 997 0.00 0 997 1,012 2,009 L926 9 te)16,941 1,412 0-876 1.237 9.00 3.920 5,157 1,012 6,169 1987 0 0 20,913 1,743 0.876 2,527 5.60 »1,750 3.277 1,012 4,289 1988 (°)6,387 24,844 2.070 0.876 1,814 2.50 1,750 3.564 1,012 10,963 1989 5,288 0 23,222 1,935 0.907 1,755 2.50 0 1,755 1,062 2-817 949 5,288 0 26,977 2.248 0.938 2-110 0.00 1,750 3,860 1,062 4,922 199%5,283 0 29,816 2,485 0.971 2.4135 2.50 i)2,413 1,062 3,475 1992 5,288 9 32,596 2-716 1.005 2,731 0.00 21,750 4,481 1,062 5.543 1993 5,288 0 35,668 2,972 1.040 3-092 2.50 0 3,092 1,062 4.154 1994 5,288 0 39,043 34254 1.077 3-504 0.00 1.750 8,254 1,062 6,316 1995 5,288 0 42,402 3,533 1.115 |3,938 2.50 210 4.148 ©1,062 5,210 1996 3,288 0 44,883 3,740 1.154 4,314 0.30 2,170 6,484 1,062 7.546 299%5,288 i)49,220 4-102 1.194 4,897 3.10 0 4,897 1,062 §,959 1998 5.288 0 53,088 4,424 1.236 5,467 0.00 1,750 74217 1,062 8,279 19949 3,288 0 37,179 4,765 1.279 6,094 2.50 1,750 7,844 1,062 8,906 2290 5,208 te)61,316 5.126 1.324 6,786 2.50 420 7,206 1,062 8.268 2002 $,208 0 66,129 5.511 1.370 7,550 0.60 1,750 9,300 1.062 10,362 2902 OBB t)71.046 5.921 1.418 8,395 2.50 1,750 10,145 1,062 11,207 200 5,238 0 76,134 6,344 1.468 9,311 2.50 22394 11,705 1,062 12,767 "O04 a,ZR i)81,597 6,800 1.519 10,329 3.42 1,750 12.079 1,062 13,241 2008 3,283 ce)87,477 7,290 1.572 11,462 2.50 0 11,461 1,062 12,523 2d0#3,288 te)87,477 7,290 1.572 11,461 0.00 3,920 15,381 1,062 16,443 2067 3,732 0 87,477 7,290 1.572 31,462 5.60 1-750 413,211 1,062 14,273 ?008 3.298 te)87.477 7,290 1.572 11,461 2.50.1,750 13,211 1,062 14,273 2069 5,293 0 87,477 74290 1.572 11,461 2.50 ()11,462 1,062 12,523 2O%4,228 )87.477 7.290 1.572 13,461 0.00 1,750 13,211 1,062 14,273 eois 3,233 0 87,477 7,290 1.572 11,461 2.50 0 11,461 1,062 12,523 eGi2 3,208 0 87,477 7,299 1.572 11,46)9.00 1,750 13,211 1,062 14,273 20r3 5.2288 0 87,477 7,290 °1.572 11,461 2.50 0 11,46)1,062 12,523 SONS 3,288 0 87,497 7,290 1.572 11,461 .0.00 1,750 13,211 1,062 14,273 2015 3,232 0 87,477 74290 1.572 11,461 2.50 210 11,671 1,062 12,733 2016 3.288 0 87,477 74290 1.572 11,461 0.30 2-170 13-631 1,062 14,693 ae?5,288 0 87,477 7,290 1.572 11,461 3.10 0 11,461 1,062 12,523 918 5.288 ie)87,477 7.290 1.572 11,461 0.00 1,750 13,211 1,062 14,273 2o1a 5,288 0 87,477 7,290 1.572 11,461 2.50 1,750 13,211 1,062 14,273 2929 3,288 0 87,477 7,290 1.572 11,461 2.50 420 11,881 1,062 12,943 202%5,288 0 87,477 7,299 2.572 11,461 0.60 1.750 13,212 1,062 14,273 2922 3,288 0 87,477 7,290 1.572 11,461 2.50 1.750 13,211 1,062 14,273 2023 5,286 0 87,47?7,290 1.572 11-461 2.50 2-394 13,855 1,062 14,917 ANE 5.288 9 87,477 72290 1.572 211,461 3.42 1,750 13,211 1,062 14,273 2075 5,288 0 87,47)7,299 1.572 11,46!2.50 i)11,461 1,062 12,523 (13,064)(13,064)(13,064) NPV(3.5):$193-427 NPV(4.5):$159,670 66T SI.07.04 y ixy 3,1995 APPROVAL OF FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS FOR THE UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR RECONNAISSANCE STUDY A.Action Item Consideration and transmittal of the Findings and Recommenda- tions of the Unalaska/Dutch Harbor Reconnaissance Study, including a recommendation to allocate $640,000 from the rural feasibility appropriation to conduct a detailed feasibility study of the geothermal power alternative. B.Background 1. 9191/367/1 A Reconnaissance Study of Energy Requirements and Alter- natives for Unalaska/Dutch Harbor was initiated in August 1983 by a consultant under contract to the Power Authori- ty.After reviewing the consultant's draft report,. submitted in April 1984,Power Authority staff decided toexpandthestudytoincludetheresultsof(a)the Power Authority's geothermal drilling and exploration programand(b)an energy load study being conducted by the City of Unalaska.With the agreement of the consultant,Power Authority staff completed the study using methods and data from the consultant's draft report.The results are contained in a Power Authority report entitledUnalaska/Dutch Harbor Reconnaissance Study Findings.andRecommendation,April 1985. The Power Authority recently completed its exploration and drilling program for geothermal resource assessment on Unalaska Island.The results of this program have confirmed the existence of an extremely productive geothermal reservoir twelve miles west of the City of Unalaska.If converted to electrical energy,the reser- voir is capable of meeting even the most optimistic load forecasts for the island in the foreseeable future. The reconnaissance study used net present value calcu- lations to compare alternative power system plans for Unalaska based on three possible population and load growth scenarios.It analyzed three potential hydroelec- tric power systems and various sizes of two potential geothermal power systems and compared them to a diesel system base case.The two geothermal power system technologies were selected for analysis on the basis ofthecharacteristicsofthegeothermalreservoir.dis-covered and tested under the exploration and drilling program.A sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine the effect of various discount rates and fuel escalation rates on the economics of the alternatives. The reconnaissance analysis indicates that a geothermal power system using diesel generators for backup and peaking is the most economical source of electricity for the community of Unalaska/Dutch Harbor.The study recommends initiation of a detailed feasibility study of the geothermal alternative. Unalaska is named in SLA 1981,Chapter 90,Section 6 as a community for which funds are allocated for a rural power system feasibility study. The City of Unalaska,which owns and operates the local electric utility,has passed a resolution requesting the Alaska Power Authority to conduct a feasibility study for a geothermal power facility on the island. C.Issues 1. 9191/367/2 Industrial electric loads,particularly those associated with the seafood processing industry,account for the greatest and most variable proportion of the total electric load on the island.Currently,most of theindustrialloadisnotprovidedbythecityutility, although interties have been constructed to allow for future supply from a central plant.Actual electrical energy usage is poorly monitored by the industry.A feasibility study should include a detailed analysis of the existing industrial loads in the market area and should formulate an industrial load duration curve. Many factors are apt to affect the future electric loadgrowthatUnalaska.Some major ones include:(a)the future of the Bering Sea commercial fisheries and the potential for establishment of a bottomfish industry at Unalaska,(b)whether the future trend in seafood pro-cessing is toward shore-based or floating processors,(c) the potential for broadening the industrial base with support facilities to service Bering Sea oil and gas exploration and production efforts,and (d)the potential for other projects and activities likely to increase future electric loads,such as the proposed airport runway extension,the proposed establishment of a U.S. Coast Guard search and rescue facility at Dutch Harbor, and the future of the tourism industry on the island. These and other factors affecting load growth should be analyzed in a feasibility study. 9191/367/3 Potential industrial customers,currently unserved by thecityutility,have expressed their interest in purchasingelectricpowerfromthecityifitcanbeofferedat economic rates.A feasibility study should analyze theindustry's current cost of power production and thecity's anticipated cost of production with a geothermalpowerfacilitytodeterminethepotentialforaddingtheseindustrialuserstothecitysystem.Addingindustrialcustomerstothecitysystemwouldcreateasignificantlevelofunuseddieselgenerationcapacityontheisland.A feasibility study should analyze thispotentialcapacityandthecity's avoided cost to deter-mine the possibility of utilizing this diesel capacityforbackupandpeakingpurposes. The City of Unalaska is moving its electric power planttoanewlocationwhichisnotconnectedtotheexistingwasteheatsystem.A feasibility study should analyzethepotentialforbuildingawasteheatsystematthenewlocationandtheeffectthiswouldhaveontheeconomics of a geothermal power facility.It should also analyzethepotentialforusingtheeffluentfromageothermalpowerplantfordirectusessuchasheatinggreenhousesorfish-hatchery rearing ponds. Numerous geothermal power system technologies have beendevelopedandusedworldwide,while still other proto- types have been extensively tested and proved successful. A feasibility study should carefully analyze the range ofavailabletechnologyand,using the data obtained fromtheexplorationanddrillingprogram,determine the most suitable geothermal technology for the conditions atUnalaska,considering reservoir characteristics,cost,and reliability. A geothermal power facility would need to be sited near the resource,which is located twelve miles west of the community in rugged terrain across a_three-mile, deep-water bay.A feasibility study should analyze the most suitable road and transmission line routes and conceptual designs best suited to local topographic and weather conditions. The Unalaska geothermal site is located in an active seismic region and in close proximity to an active volcano.In addition,any development in such ruggedterrainwouldrequireattentiontoslopestability.Afeasibilitystudyshouldincludegeotechnicalandgeolog-ic engineering investigations to assess hazards as well as foundation conditions and construction material availability. Geochemical investigations have revealed that the geothermal fluids produced at the site are relatively benign.A feasibility study should analyze streamflow and water quality standards to determine appropriate geothermal effluent disposal practices. D.Costs As shown below,the estimated cost of a geothermal power system feasibility study for Unalaska is $640,000.The funds for this project would be allocated from the rural community feasi Secti Load bility appropriation authorized by SLA 1981,Chapter 90, on 6. forecast and cost of power studies $50,000 Geothermal power system technology assessment and cost estimates 70,000 Waste heat and ancillary geothermal energy use assessment 20,000 and transmission routeRoad and conceptual design analysis and cost estimates 150,000 Geotechnical and geologic engineering studies 200 ,000 Environmental and water quality studies 50,000 Economic evaluation 100 ,000 $640,000 E.Options 1.Approve the Findings and Recommendations for the Unalaskareconnaissancestudyandtheallocationof$640,000 to conduct a geothermal power system feasibility study.The study and findings and recommendations would be submittedtotheOfficeofManagementandBudget(OMB)in accor- dance with AS 46.83.179.OMB has 30 days to approve or disapprove the study. 2. Disapprove the Findings and Recommendations and refer to 9191/367/4 staff for revisions. F.Recommendation Adopt Option 1:Approve the Findings and Recommendations and allocation of funds for a feasibility study. 9191/367/5 CITY OF UNALASKA P.O.BOX 89 UNALASKA,ALASKA 99685 (907)581-1251 "Capital of the Aleutians” UNALASKA,ALASKA CITY OF UNALASKA UNALASKA,ALASKA RESOLUTION 84-64 A RESOLUTION SUPPORTING GEOTHERMAL POWER IN UNALASKA WHEREAS:The Alaska Power Authority has conducted an exploration of Geothermal potential on Makushin Volcano,and WHEREAS:That exploration led to the discovery of the Reeder Geothermal Field,and WHEREAS:It appears that the energy in that field is sufficienttogenerateelectricityforUnalaska.iS _NOW THEREFORE BE IT RESOLVED that 'The Unalaska City Council urges the Alaska Power Authority to47t6conductastudyofthefeasibilityofcommercialdevelopmentAceyroftheeederGeothermalFieldonMakuskin,PASSED «AND APPROVED THIS 11TH DAY OF OCTOBER,1984 BY THECITY;COUNCIL 'OF THE CITY OF UNALASKA,ALASKA.ce oe es,ei. \°Y) ee Dl-=bs ereee Se ne ih it nn sate sm nl a dntWilliamFisher Mayor City.Clerk UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR RECONNAISSANCE STUDY FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS Summary SUMMARY STATEMENT A geothermal power system using diesel generators for backup and' peaking appears to be the most economical sourceof electricity for the community of Unalaska/Dutch Harbor.It is recommended that the Alaska Power Authority conduct a detailed feasibility study of this energy alternative. METHODS The reconnaissance study uses net present value calculations to compare alternative power system plans for Unalaska based on three possible population and load growth scenarios.It analyzes three potential hydroelectric power systems proposed by the U.S.Corps of Engineers,Alaska District,and it evaluates various sizes of two potential geothermal power systems.The two geothermal power sys- tem technologies were selected for analysis on the basis of the characteristics of the geothermal reservoir discovered and tested under the Alaska Power Authority's Unalaska Geothermal Exploration Program.The alternative plans are based on the assumption that diesel generators will be used to provide power demand that cannot be met by the alternative system.A 40-year net present value of each of the alternatives analyzed is compared to the net present value of a total diesel power system that would meet the demands of the respective growth scenario over the same period.The analysis uses a 3.5%discount rate and a 1985 fuel price of 87.6 cent/gallon which decreases 4%the first year,remains constant for the next two years,and then increases by 2%annually for the remainder of the 20-year planning period.A sensitivity analysis is conducted to determine the economic effect of a 4.5%discount rate and the following fuel escalation rates: 1986 1987 1988 1989-2005 Low -4%-4%-4%0% Medium -4%0%0%+2% High 0%0%0%+3.5% ASSUMPTIONS Low Growth Scenario For the purposes of this analysis,it is assumed,under the low growth scenario,that the population of Unalaska/Dutch Harbor wil] 9197/369/F1 Paye 1 increase at a rate of 2 percent annually for the next twenty years.(Over the last twenty years,the net population increase reflected a 9 percent annual growth.)Residential,commercial,and city ser- vices loads are calculated,based on this 2 percent annual in- crease,and reflect a 2.7 percent annual increase in non-industrial loads. The industrial load forecast,consisting primarily of the seafood processing industry,is based on past industrial loads on the is-land and recent projections with respect to the fisheries industry.- Due to a coincident decline in the population of several species of shellfish,the commercial fisheries landings at Unalaska/Dutch Har- bor decreasec significantly between 1980 and 1982 but have remained relatively level since 1982.The industrial electric loads fol- lowed this decline and continued to decrease through 1984 with the closing of several seafood processing plants.Consequently,there are numerous industrial facilities on the island currently not in use.Recent fisheries studies indicate that the shellfish popu- lations have reached a minimum and have begun a_recovery.The in- dustrial load forecast in this study is based on an industrial load survey done in 1983 after the decline in the fisheries landings but prior to the most recent processor closings.The low growth sce- nario assumes that the industrial load will return to its 1983 lev- el by 1995 and remain at that level through 2005.This is con- sidered a minimal increase,even with a slow recovery of the fisheries in the region. Moderate Growth Scenario The moderate growth scenario assumes a 4 percent annual increase in the population of Unalaska/Dutch Harbor for twenty years.This in- crease may be the result of a moderate rate of recovery of the fisheries in the region or the broadening of the industrial base with the establishment of oil and gas production services or a proposed U.S.Coast Guard search and rescue facility.Based on this population growth,the calculated non-industrial electric load increases by 4.8 percent annually for the 20-year planning period. The industrial load is assumed to return to its 1983 level by 1990 .and to continue to increase an additional 50 percent by 1995 where it remains through 2005. High Growth Scenario The high growth scenario assumes the establishment of a low-level bottomfish industry at Unalaska beginning in 1986.This would cause the population to increase at a rate of 11 percent annually for the 20-year planning period.It would cause non-industrial loads to increase by 11.8 percent annually.Industrial loads are based on the assumption that 25 percent of the bottomfish would be processed at Unalaska/Dutch Harbor.This bottomfish load is added 9157/369/F1 :Page 2 to the moderate growth scenario industrial load to arrive at the high growth total industrial load. DESCRIPTION OF ALTERNATIVES The study analyzes various sizes uf two geothermal systems:a total flow system and a binary system.These two geothermal processes were selected for analysis because they both exhibit high efficien- cy with two-phase (liquid and vapor)geothermal fluids,which is Characteristic of the geothermal resource discovered at Unalaska,- and because they are both cost competitive at the smal]?unit sizes needed to meet the power demand at Unalaska.The total flow system separates the two-phase fluid into steam and water which is piped to a specially designed nozzle where it is recombined in specified proportions to maximize the thermal and kinetic energy to drive an impulse turbine.The binary system separates the two-phase fluid and uses the water to preheat and evaporate a binary-fluid such as isobutane or freon.The geothermal steam then superheats the bina- ry vapor which is used to drive a turbine generator.The sizes of the various geothermal alternatives analyzed are given below. The study also analyzes two small hydroelectric systems that have been proposed by the U.S.Corps of Engineers.One is located on the Shaishnikof River and is designed to produce 700 KW and the other,on Pyramid Creek,is rated at 260 KW.The analysis evalu- ates each of these proposals as they would stand alone and also an- alyzes them together as a combined hydroelectric system. Alternative A--Total Flow Geothermal System Alternative No.Of Units Size (MW)Atl i 2.1 A(2)2 4.2 A(3)3 6.3 A(4)4 8.4 A(5)5 10.5 A(6)6 12.6 Alternative B--Binary Geothermal System Alternative No.Of Units Size (MW) B(1 1 3.35 B(2)2 6.70 B(3)3 10.05 B(4)4 13.40 9197/369/F1 Page 3 Alternative C--Hydroelectric System Alternative Watershed Size (MW)C(I)Shaishnikof 10 C(2)Pyramid .26 C(3)Both .96 RESULTS The results of the study are summarized in the following graphs which depict the population and electric load forecasts used and illustrate the net present value and cost-to-cost ratios of the op- timum alternatives for each growth scenario and the diesel base case.The analysis shows that,for the low and moderate growth scenarios,a two unit (4.2 MW)total flow geothermal system,using diesel generators for backup and peaking,is the most economical source of electric power for the Unalaska/Dutch Harbor market area. For the high growth scenario,a five-unit (10.5 MW)total flow geothermal system is most economical.The sensitivity analysis in- dicates that these conclusions would change only under a condition of low growth and low fuel escalation. RECOMMENDATION Based on these findings,it is recommended that the Alaska Power Authority conduct a detailed feasibility study of a geothermal pow- er system at Unalaska/Dutch Harbor. 9197/369/F1 Paye 4 POPULATION(Thousands)a ENERGYUSE(MWh-/yr)(Thousands)UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POPULATION HISTORIC AND FORECAST TRENDS 1965-2005 HISTORIC FORECAST TUtrTrrTTrrrrrrpriryYryrTtrTfF0.0 TRrTrrTrryrrt rt tt tt pb te 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 YEAR LOW GROWTH +MODERATE GROWTH °HIGH GROWTH ELECTRIC LOAD FORECAST 1985-2005 LOW GROWTH SCENARIO 100 -- 90 - 80 + 70 + 60 - 50 - 40 30 - TOTAL LOAD 20 eo INDUSTRIAL LOAD to 4 'NON INDUSTRIAL LOAD aaah 1985 1990 1995 2000 YEAR 2005 (MWhvyr)(Thousands)ENERGYUSEENERGYUSE(MWh-vyr)(Thousanda)100 100 ELECTRIC LOAD FORECAST 1985-2005 MODERATE GROWTH SCENARIO --e-- TOTAL LOAD INDUSTRIAL LOAD NON-INDUSTRIAL LOAD r T T T T T v T T 1995 2000 YEAR HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO 2005 TOTAL LOAD INDUSTRIAL LOAD NON-INDUSTRIAL LOAD 2005 COST OF POWER SYSTEM ALTERNATIVES LOW GROWTH SCENARIO 2 RXRERRRRRKY 78.2 77.7 WSSSSX anny XtGN 95.3 RQAAQVaar °nsr "T E MOXSRRAQVQVQQYKYRMNSSSSy rg WNKKM2 SSSSSRQKQK'KVKS PE SSSSSQ_a"v, vv -SXy<x''_v TT(®USCTITIN)€eet) ANIVA LNAB qSSHud LAN aA B(2)B(3)c(1)=C(2)cts)ra A(3)mn ALTERNATIVES WCWCKCMWCGGWWW3WCEUW W™W EU .W'W a ToLi c(t)C2)c(3) 1.00 308 os LOW GROWTH SCENARIO COST/COST RATIOS NOonrnwowntt MON HH DOOR ON #OWN+OO e #6 eee AH tH rt CoOOoOGaG oSOo LSOO FALLVNUALIV' LSOD SSVDO ASV B(t)B(2) B(3) ALTERNATIVES A(2)A(3)-s ACA) ALTERNATIVESMq 4dFPOWERSYSTECOSTO 110 ae MODERATE GROWTH SCENARIO ce,COLL IOa,veMae, TLLDS ALLA AebEMAA LLAMA hE LIL LLL 94.0! T. 96.5 95.5 C(1) DITILEEEEEZEZZB QA:LLLLsjMo} OTLS IIISSTTEIIIIIII . LM ff oe y, . aVL :LOLSSSALALLL OLEODIIIIT PEOIII IIIT vA LO BO, 4Ye7 he BML ALLE CLLLLLLD qT A(4) SLL LILLIELLL LILLE Ceuo4;»nriisy) (f4a¥1TIOoq €86T) ANIVA LNASAUd LAN BASE CASE c(3)C(2)B(2)B(3)B(1)A(3)A(2) ALTERNATIVES COST/COST RATIOS MODERATE GROWTH SCENARIO 0AI ileGee TZ)YN” Ye (hil rN) ;Uy;Y)iy, oOo 4 : WVM_MCC=##?-_ H, e /Yy.LLLLL .980 1.08 re) yy = Li 'La ieeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeNADnRONHYNNAHAARHoNHeNN AOLSOD FAAILLVNYRLIV'LSOD ASVD asva c(2)C(3)c(1)B(2)B(3)B(1)A(3)A(4)A(2) ALTERNATIVES (1983Dotlars)(Millions)NETPRESENTVALUEBASECASECOSTYALTERNATIVECOSTCOST OF POWER SYSTEM ALTERNATIVES HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO ir ne We rermnneng180+ 170 465.8 165.8 164.1 ts3.4 131.4 10 4 0 T :;'Ade T :T a BASE CASE A(4)A(5)A(6)B(2)3B(3)B(4)C(t) ALTERNATIVES COST/COST RATIOS RIGH GROWTH SCENARIO T C(2) 1.26 o.seconEE4aSeehale”RSE'ne SYa3aa:\'o%'0 '%SS SNS RES CS=Sy ;Se pcos B(3)BC 4)c(1) ALTERNATIVES c(2)c(3) SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS LOW GROWTH SCENARIO | 8 "XS 2) 5 . -taeE <<!©2 EAC : ASRRRAAS ER g\§3=xSs<FN°iSwcbieeeipree 22888288988 (spuvsnouL) (spuesnouL) (©z¥11I0qd E€86T) ANIVA LNASSHUd LAN (saett0d €e6t) ANIVA LNASSYd LAN T c(3) T B(1) T Rexel HIGH r BASE CASE A(2) MEDIUM t C(3) PUEL ESCALATION RATE L274 LLL B(t) LOW VA, (4) A BASE CASE A(2) NETPRESENTVALUE(1983Dollars)(Thousands)SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO 00 a 3.5%DISCOUNT RATE / 190 -4wentie4,tao {rece170ons 60 2af 130 120 Y /i a 110 4/71 WZWe7)rer Z90Lfff '.7 t80VSOe70-44,S/| f On/80 VLA SLA NSi)LO30CLA,Y YW20Yt 4.5%DISCOUNT RATE A109LA Li 'BASE CASE A(5)B(3)C(3)BASE CASE A(5)B(3)c(3) FUEL ESCALATION RATE VZ]Low (777)MEDIUM oR HIGH Alternatives Base Case -Diesel-powered generator systemA(5)-Total flow geothermal system (five units)B (3}-Binary geothermal system (three units)C (3)-Hydroelectric system (Shaishnikof and Pyramid) Fuel Escalation Rates 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989-2005 Low $.876/gal -4%-4%-4%0% Medium $.876/gal -4%0%*+2% High $.876/gal 0%0%:0%+3.5% Way S 'ferove Wi Sy O7.0CF HEATH:-COMMISSIONER KNAPP:YES COMMISSIONER LOUNSBURY:YES MR.ARNOLD:YES MR.HARRISON:YES MR.ALLISON:YES CHAIRMAN NUNN:YES NUNN:This .......I would commend MR.ALLISON for remarks to _the staff,there are unique features there that would be helpful in some of the other deliberations.They should be incorporated and considered.The second item of new business is the Unalaska Reconnaissance Findings and Recommendations ...COMMISSIONER LOUNSBURY. LOUNSBURY:Yes,MR.CHAIRMAN,this is an action item for approval of the draft Unalaska Reconnaissance Finding and Recommend- ations,including $640,000 feasibility study request.The Planning Conmittee recommended approval by the full Board based on the Unalaska Reconnaissance Findings and Recommen- dations pointing out the complexity in developing the power system for the city of Unalaska.This is a system using a geothermal source on Mechushin(?)Geothermal Resource on Unalaska Island.The Committee found that the staff had adequately evaluated the alternatives for electrification plan for the Unalaska-Dutch Harbor area,and we recommend that the Draft Reconnaissance Finding and Recommendations 9329/381 Page 46 ALLISON(?): NUNN: ALLISON: 9329/381 be approved by the full Board and that $640,000 be reserved in the rural feasibility account for an Unalaska feasibil- ity study.However,the discussion was made primarily directed,by MR.HARRISON,that the staff be directed to be judicious in the use of these funds and that one method might be performing some of the economic analysis in-house or as much in-house as possible.Because Unalaska is one of the named communities in SLA 82,Chapter 90,funding for the Unalaska Geothermal Project Study would be taken from internal account 490,and no additional request would be made for feasibility funding.I would so move MR. CHAIRMAN. Seconded. Moved and seconded,any further discussion with respect to the Unalaska Project?MR.ALLISON. Because of the location of this project,I would request the Board instruct staff to obtain a signed agreement for access into and use of the lands upon which the well(s)is to be set and the plant is to be set and the road is to go across,prior to the expenditure of any funds in the project.The basis for that is to avoid a situation that we have found ourselves in with at least one other trans- mission facility,where we have proceeded to construction Page 47 HARRISON: LOUNSBURY: ALLISON: LOUNSBURY: 9329/381 without having a firm contract and agreement on access, road and facilities construction.It would not necessarily have to be an advance of the expenditure of any money ...I don't want to make the staff nervous but,at least.before there was any conceiveable(?)commitment to proceed,I think that we should get that done because I have an apprehension that the cost could substantially escalate if we don't have that done. MR.CHAIRMAN....I think that is a very good idea and suggestion that we do get some final right-of-way agree- ments before we start spending our money. MR.CHAIRMAN,excuse me ...I misunderstood.Is that prior to any construction of the project or during the ...this initial feasibility study? Well,if we have to cut a road to do the feasibility study, then I would like to have the contract for the use of that property to cut the road before we cut the road,so that we are not negotiating a of what we have already committed.So,to the extent that it is necessary to conduct the feasibility analysis,then I think we should have it before that. I would include that in that motion MR.CHAIRMAN. Page 48 NUNN: HARRISON: LOUNSBURY: NUNN: ED MORRIS: 9329/381 The motion has been amended to be contingent on satisfac- tory rights-of-way being obtained prior to commitment of the Power Authority funds,so recommended. MR.CHAIRMAN,I think there is still a little ambiguity in this.We are talking about not only a right-of-way I guess,but also a long-term lease or whatever reason for the Power Plant itself,which may not be on public land is that right?So,certainly ...I guess my thought was that before we commence the half a million dollar ..whatever it is,feasibility study,that these agreements would be worked out rather than just prior to construction. Would we amend that to say that any lands required for the project ..or the feasibility study. Okay,understand that the motion is now amended. MR.CHAIRMAN,may I ask one clarifying question on that. On the transmission line routing which obviously will require either required lands fee or easements for them, and that will then require some transmission line design considerations in order to be able to require the corridor, so in the proceeding with the project,you would have to do some'routing and line design for the transmission corridor in order to negotiate to obtain those necessary easements. Page 49 NUNN: MORRIS: 9329/381 MR.MORRIS,I think the sense of the motion is that the recommendation on the first option is approved,but it is amended that rights-of-way to conduct such work even as you are describing,and access to the land,is firmly in hand - before the full amount of this feasibility study is com- mitted and if that provides difficulty in the sense that it was going to be all as a part of one commitment,then I think you need to let us know before we finally vote on this. No,I just want to get their clarification.I think we should be able to proceed with that portion of the project to outline the necessary right-of-way requirements. Looking at the breakdown that is in the packet,the road and transmission route conceptual design analysis and process was $150,000 as the estimated amount;that a portion of that would go hand-in-hand with identifying those necessary rights away and some basic design work would have to be looked at in order to accomplish that. So,there would be a contract involved on that portion that would have to go forward.As to the other items ... certainly in terms of the geothermal assessments,the technology assessments of the equipment,the environmental aspect studies then would be deferred until we have met the amendment as proposed by the Board. Page 50 NUNN:Does any member of the Board have any difficulty with that characterization?Further discussion?MR.HEATH. COMMISSIONER KNAPP:YES :Loe Sey HEATH:COMMISSIONER LOUNSBURY:YES MR.ARNOLD:YES MR.HARRISON:YES MR.ALLISON:YES CHAIRMAN NUNN:YES NUNN:Next item under New Business is Waste Heat Findings and Recommendations and Approval of the FY86 Program. MR.HEATH. HEATH:Go on MR.CHAIRMAN. NUNN:COMMISSIONER KNAPP. KNAPP:The section MR.CHAIRMAN that this issue reflects on the revised program,when the original $5 million dollars was submitted,which was subsequently reduced to $2 million dollars,the staff went back to the drawing board and revised the program that will simplify the highest priority projects.The list of what was intended in the original $5 million dollar program;it comes up basically as a $2.4 million dollars .....other $400,000 in funds and will 9329/381 Page 51 COMMISSIONER LOUNSBURY reported that staff has drafted a preliminary Scope of Work and contracted consultants with expertise in one or more areas covered in the Scope of Work requirements.The Scope of Work information can be used as a basis for a formal Request for Proposal if required. There have been three responses to date and more are expected by May 15,1985.Staff has been instructed to continue to receive the consultants estimates up through May 15,and report on information received at the next Board meeting. FY86 LEGISLATIVE UPDATE MR.HEATH reported on the status of Power Authority legis- lation and answered questions of the Board pertaining to jts status. II].NEW BUSINESS 9739/402 Action Items 1.RECOMMENDATIONS FOR JUNEAU 20-YEAR POWER SUPPLY PLAN COMMISSIONER LOUNSBURY stated the Planning Committee met and considered staff's request for endorsement of the Findings and Recommendations for the Juneau 20-Year Power Plan.The Committee recommends deletion of paragraph 2,Item 3 under costs,and that the Findings and Recommendations then be endorsed by the Board.Furthermore,The Committee supports staff's recommendation for further action to follow'the Reconnaissance Study.COMMISSIONER LOUNSBURY moved that the recommendations of the Planning Committee be adopted by the full Board.MR.ALLISON seconded the motion.The motion passed 6-0,with KNAPP,LOUNSBURY, ARNOLD,HARRISON,ALLISON and NUNN voting yes. 2.UNALASKA RECONNAISSANCE:FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS COMMISSIONER LOUNSBURY stated that the Planning Committee,after determining that staff had adequately evaluated the alternatives for an electrification plan for the Unalaska-Dutch Harbor area,recommends approval of the Draft Reconnaissance Findings and Recommenda- tions by the full Board and that $640,000 be reserved in the Rural Feasibility account for an Unalaska feasibility study.Staff was directed to perform as much of the economic analysis in-house as possible. COMMISSIONER LOUNSBURY moved that the Board adopt the Planning Committee's recommendation.MR.ALLISON seconded the motion.MR.ALLISON requested that the Page 5 APANTANY Board instruct staff to obtain a signed agreement for access into and use of the lands upon which the well(s)and plant are to be set prior to the expendi- ture of any funds in the project.MR.HARRISON agreed with MR.ALLISON.COMMISSIONER LOUNSBURY amended his motion to be contingent on the obtaining of satisfac- tory right-of-ways on any lands required for the feasibility study and project prior to commitment of Alaska Power Authority funds. The motion passed 6-0,with KNAPP,LOUNSBURY,ARNOLD, HARRISON,ALLISON and NUNN voting yes. WASTE HEAT:FINDINGS,RECOMMENDATIONS AND APPROVAL OF FY86 PROGRAM The $5,000,000 requested by the Power Authority in the FY86 budget for design and construction of projects invariousvillageswasreducedto$2,000,000 in the Governor's request.With this reduced funding,the proposed scope of the waste heat program was reduced proportionately.A revised priority list of projectswasprovidedintheBoardpacketswhichtotalled$2.4 million.COMMISSIONER KNAPP,Chairman of the Project Management Committee,recommended that staff go aheadwiththerevisedprogramof$2.4 million with a further direction to re-program for future years at approximately a $5 million dollar level.MR.ALLISON moved that the recommendation of the Project Manage- ment Committee be adopted with the further proviso that staff seek alternative sources to fund waste heat projects outside the State appropriation process. MR.HARRISON seconded the motion.The motion passed 6-0,with KNAPP,LOUNSBURY,ARNOLD,HARRISON,ALLISON and NUNN voting yes. GALENA WASTE HEAT PROPOSAL A revised statement of the Galena Waste Heat project was furnished to the Board.MR.ED MORRIS,Associate Executive Director of Planning,reviewed the proposal for the Board.The City of Galena and Galena School District proposes to transfer funds to the PowerAuthoritytocompleteaWasteHeatRecoveryexpansion project.Approximately $300,000 would be transferred. Power Authority staff requests permission to enter into an agreement to accept such funds when formallyofferedandtoallocateupto$20,000 internally from general waste heat appropriations for re-design and project management.MR.ARNOLD moved that staff's recommendation be adopted based upon the findings Page 6 SHALANVad 1\yU A"te UrS©38.07.oyMEMORANDUMStateofAlaska TO: FROM: Lee R.Nunn,Chairman pate:May 2,1985 Board of Directors FILE NO: TELEPHONE NO: Loren H.Lounsbury,Ch suavect:Action Item:Approval of Planning Committee Draft Unalaska Reconnaissance Finding & Recommendations Including a $640,000 Feasibility Study Request. The Planning Committee of the Alaska Power Authority Board of Directors met and considered the staff request for Power Authority approval of Draft Findings and Recommendations for the Unalaska Reconnaissance Studyandallocationof$640,000 to conduct a geothermal power system feasibility study.The Planning Committee met in Juneau at 1:00 P.M.on May 2,1985 in the 9th floor conference room of the Department of Commerce and Economic Development.Committee members present included Mr.Harrison,and myself.Mr.Allison of the Board was also present and participated in the discussion.Mr.Hufman was excused. The Planning Committee was unanimous in its recommendation that the draft be approved by the Board.The Unalaska Reconnaissance Findings and Recommendations point out the complexity of developing a power system plan for the City of Unalaska.Future growth in Unalaska/Dutch Harbor and resulting electrical requirements of the industrial sector not currently supplied by the municipal power system warrant further study to determine the feasibility of pursuing development of the Makushin geothermal resource on Unalaska Island.The Committee finds that the staff has adequately evaluated alternatives for electrification plans for Unalaska/Dutch Harbor.It recommends that the Draft Reconnaissance Findings and Recommendation be approved by the full Board and that$640,000 be reserved in the Rural Feasibility account for an Unalaska feasibility study.However,staff are specifically directed to be judicious in the use of the funds required for the study based on concerns expressed by Mr.Harrison.One method might be by performing economic analysis in-house rather than by contract. Because Unalaska is one of the named communities in SLA82,Chapter 90, Sec.6,line 11,funding for the Unalaska geothermal will be taken from internal account #490 and no additional request will be made for feasibility funding. If approved by the full Board,the Unalaska Reconnaissance Study and the Power Authority Findings and Recommendation will be transmitted to theOfficeofManagementandBudget(OMB)in accordance with AS 44.83.179. OMB has 30 days to approve or disapprove the reconnaissance study. LHL/SR/amh 9287/382 $5,0 /7-98A MAY ines APPROVAL OF FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS FOR THE UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR RECONNAISSANCE STUDY A.Action Item Consideration and transmittal of the Findings and Recommenda- tions of the Unalaska/Dutch Harbor Reconnaissance Study, including a recommendation to allocate $640,000 from the ruralfeasibilityappropriationtoconductadetailedfeasibility study of the geothermal power alternative. B.Background 1.A Reconnaissance Study of Energy Requirements and Alter- natives for Unalaska/Dutch Harbor was initiated in August 1983 by a consultant under contract to the Power Authori- ty.After reviewing the consultant's draft report, submitted in April 1984,Power Authority staff decided toexpandthestudytoincludetheresultsof(a)the Power Authority's geothermal drilling and exploration programand(b)an energy load study being conducted by the City of Unalaska.With the agreement of the consultant,Power Authority staff completed the study using methods and data from the consultant's draft report.The results are contained in a Power Authority report'entitledUnalaska/Dutch Harbor Reconnaissance Study Findings.andRecommendation,April 1985. 2.The Power Authority recently completed its exploration and drilling program for geothermal resource assessmentonUnalaskaIsland.The results of this program have confirmed the existence of an extremely productive geothermal reservoir twelve miles west of the City of Unataska.If converted to electrical energy,the reser-voir is capable of meeting even the most optimistic load forecasts for the island in the foreseeable future. 3.The reconnaissance study used net present value calcu- lations to compare alternative power system plans for Unalaska based on three possible population and load growth scenarios.It analyzed three potential hydroelec- tric power systems and various sizes of two potentialgeothermalpowersystemsandcomparedthemtoadiesel system base case.The two geothermal power system technologies were selected for analysis on the basis of the characteristics of the geothermal reservoir dis- covered and tested under the exploration and drilling program.A_sensitivity analysis was conducted to a1 arrae7st C.Issue l. determine the effect of various discount rates and fuel escalation rates on the economics of the alternatives. The reconnaissance analysis indicates that a geothermal power system using diesel generators for backup and peaking is the most economical source of electricity for the community of Unalaska/Dutch Harbor.The study recommends initiation of a detailed feasibility study of the geothermal alternative. Unalaska is named in SLA 1981,Chapter 90,Section 6 as a community for which funds are allocated for a rural power system feasibility study. The City of Unalaska,which owns and operates the local electric utility,has passed a resolution requesting the Alaska Power Authority to conduct a feasibility study for a geothermal power facility on the island. s Industrial electric loads,particularly those associated with the seafood processing.industry,account for the greatest and most variable proportion of the total electric load on the island.Currently,most of theindustrialloadisnotprovidedbythecityutility, although interties have been constructed to allow forfuturesupplyfromacentralplant.Actual electrical energy usage is poorly monitored by the industry.A feasibility study should include a detailed analysis of aint 4927/9 the existing industrial loads in the market area andshouldformulateanindustrialloaddurationcurve. Many factors are apt to affect the future electric loadgrowthatUnalaska.Some major ones include:(a)thefutureoftheBeringSeacommercialfisheriesandthe potential for establishment of a bottomfish industry atUnalaska,(b)whether the future trend in seafood pro-cessing is toward shore-based or floating processors,(c)the potential for broadening the industrial base withsupportfacilitiestoserviceBeringSeaoilandgasexplorationandproductionefforts,and (d)the potential for other projects and activities likely to increasefutureelectricloads,such as the proposed airport runway extension,the proposed establishment of a U.S. Coast Guard search and rescue facility at Dutch Harbor, and the future of the tourism industry on the island. These and other factors affecting load growth should be analyzed in a feasibility study. Potential industrial customers,currently unserved by the city utility,have expressed their interest in purchasing electric power from the city if it can be offered at economic rates.A feasibility study should analyze the industry's current cost of power production and the city's anticipated cost of production with a geothermal .power facility to determine the potential for adding these industrial users to the city system.Adding industrial customers to the city system would create a significant level of unused diesel generation capacity on the island.A feasibility study should analyze this potential capacity and the city's avoided cost to deter- mine the possibility of utilizing this diesel capacity for backup and peaking purposes. The City of Unalaska is moving its electric power plant to a new location which is not connected to the existing waste heat system.A feasibility study should analyze the potential for building a waste heat system at the new 'location and the effect this would have on the economics of a geothermal power facility.It should also analyzethepotentialforusingtheeffluentfromageothermal power plant for direct uses such as heating greenhouses or fish-hatchery rearing ponds. Numerous geothermal power system technologies have been developed and used worldwide,while still other proto- types have been extensively tested and proved successful. A feasibility study should carefully analyze the range of available technology and,using the data obtained from the exploration and drilling program,determine the most suitable geothermal technology for the conditions atUnalaska,considering reservoir characteristics,cost, and relfability. A geothermal power facility would need to be sited neartheresource,which is located twelve miles west of the community in rugged terrain across a_three-mile,deep-water bay.A feasibility study should analyze the most suitable road and transmission line routes and conceptual designs best suited to local topographic and weather conditions. The Unalaska geothermal site is located in an active seismic region and in close proximity to an active volcano.In addition,any development in such rugged terrain would require attention to slope stability.A feasibility study should include geotechnical and geolog- ic engineering investigations to assess hazards as well as foundation conditions and construction material availability. D. E. Geochemical investigations have.revealed that the geothermal fluids produced at the site are relatively benign.A feasibility study should analyze streamflow and water quality standards to determine appropriate geothermal effluent disposal practices. Costs As shown below,the estimated cost of a geothermal powersystemfeasibilitystudyforUnalaskais$640,000.The funds for this project would be allocated from the rural community feasibility appropriation authorized by SLA 1981,Chapter 90,Section 6. Load forecast and cost of power studies $50,000 Geothermal power system technology assessment and cost estimates 70,000 Waste heat and ancillary geothermal energy use assessment 20,000 Road and transmission route and conceptual design analysis and cost estimates 150,000 Geotechnical and geologic engineering studies 200 ,000 Environmental and water Economic evaluation quality studies wow100,000$640,000 Options 1.Approve the Findings and Recommendations for the Unalaskareconnaissancestudyandtheallocationof$640,000 to conduct a geothermal power system feasibility study.The study and findings and recommendations would be submittedtotheOfficeofManagementandBudget(OMB)in accor- dance with AS 46.83.179.OMB has 30 days to approve or disapprove the study., Disapprove the Findings and Recommendations and refer to staff for revisions. F.Recommendation Adopt Option 1:Approve the Findings and Recommendations and allocation of funds for a feasibility study. AtAT WME TWICE Ju IGE RATIFICATION OF LAND AND RESOURCE AGREEMENTS FOR THE UNALASKA GEOTHERMAL PROJECT A.Action Item Consideration and transmittal of agreements negotiated withtheAleutCorporation(regional)and the QOunalashka Corpo-ration (village)for the use of lands and resources needed to conduct a geothermal feasibility study and to construct and operate a geothermal power system on Unalaska Island. B.Background The Board approved Reconnaissance Study Findings and Recommen- dations for Unalaska/Dutch Harbor on May 3,1985,recommending initiation of a feasibility study for a geothermal power system on Unalaska Island.The Board directed staff to obtain signed agreements for access,use of lands,and a long-term lease for the project prior to commencing the feasibility study. The Power Authority initiated negotiations with the Aleut Corporation,owner of the surface estate at the geothermal exploration site and of the subsurface estate within the entire project area,and with the Ounalashka Corporation, owner of the surface estate of lands needed for transmission line and road easements.Because the Aleut Corporation owns 'the geothermal resources required for the project,the agree- ment sought by the Power Authority was predicated on standard geothermal leases executed in other western states,including a provision to pay royalties on geothermal resources produced. The Agreement sought with the Qunalashka Corporation was a standard right-of-way agreement. After extensive negotiations between the Power Authority andtheAleutCorporation,the Aleut Corporation addressed the Board on November 6,1985,expressing concern over being required to commit to a fixed royalty rate prior to conducting a feasibility study for the project.The Board consideredthisissueonDecember12,1986 and directed staff to (1) continue to seek a contractual royalty agreement prior toinitiatingthefeasibilitystudy,(2)seek provisions that reflect industry practice and national and state standards, (3)provide,if necessary,for a fixed royalty that can be adjusted up or down depending on the outcome of the feasibil-ity study,and (4)consult with City of Unalaska officials during the negotiations. 4519/590 -.- Negotiations continued and drafting of final contract languagewascompletedforbothdocumentsduringtheweekofMay25, 1986.The documents have been reviewed and approved by the staff,and attorneys of both corporations;the staff,attor- ney,and city council of Unalaska;the Power Authority staff; and the Alaska Department of Law.The Boards of both corpora- tions have authorized their corporate offices or staff to execute the negotiated agreements. Cc.Issues Copies of the two agreements and a summary and discussion of issues and provisions contained in the agreements are provided to board members under separate cover. Upon approval of the agreement by the Board,Power Authority staff would initiate the feasibility study effort which would include issuance of a request for proposals to evaluate technical aspects of the project and execution of a reimburs- able services agreement with the Department of Natural Re- sources for collection of certain hydrologic and geological field data. 0.Options 1.Approve,ratify,and authorize the Executive Director to sign the land and resource agreement between the Power Authority and the Aleut Corporation and the right-of-way agreement between the Power Authority and the Ounalashka Corporation. 2. Disapprove one or both of the agreements and refer to staff for revisions. E.Recommendation Adopt Option 1:Approve,ratify,and authorize the Executive Director to Sign the land and resource and right-of-way agreements between the Power Authority and the Aleut and Ounalashka Corporations. 4519/590 -2- Aveust 1986 APPROVAL OF CONTRACT AWARD FOR THE UNALASKA GEOTHERMAL FEASIBILITY STUDY A.Action [tem Consideration of staff recommendation for award of a contract for the Unalaska Geothermal Feasibility Study. B.Background 1. 5588/616 The Power Authority successfully completed an extensive geothermal exploration and drilling program on Unalaska Island in 1985.Flow tests and reservoir analyses confirmed a water-dominated,382°F geothermal reservoir at a depth of 1,950 feet,capable of meeting theelectricityneedsoftheUnalaska/Dutch Harbor communityforseveralhundredyears. The Board approved Reconnaissance Study Findings and Recommendations for Unalaska/Dutch Harbor on May 3,1985, recommending initiation of a feasibility study for a geothermal power system on Unalaska Island.However,the Board directed staff to obtain signed agreements for access,use of lands,and a long term lease for the project prior to commencing the feasibility study. Power Authority staff negotiated agreements with the Aleut Corporation and the Ounalashka Corporation and presented those agreements to the Board for ratification on June 16,1986.The agreements were ratified by the Board and were signed by the Executive Director and officers of the respective corporations on June 17,1986. Power Authority staff has negotiated or is in the process of negotiating Reimbursable Services Agreements with theDepartmentsofNaturalResourcesandFishandGametoperformfieldworkandcompletegeologic,hydrologic,archaeologic,and habitat studies for the project.ThePowerAuthorityhasalsoinitiatedalimitedsolicitation for a load forecast and power market analysis forUnalaskatobeincorporatedintothefeasibilitystudy and has received five proposals for this analysis. An RFP for the Unalaska Geothermal Feasibility Study was issued on June 25,1986,with a due date of July 28, 1986.The Power Authority received thirteen proposalsforthefeasibilitystudy.The proposals were:reviewedbyacommitteemadeupofPowerAuthoritystaff,and asingleproposalhasbeenselectedbythecommitteeforrecommendationtotheBoardforawardofacontract. That recommendation will be made in an oral presentation to the Board. -_ c Pa c TTeves C.Issues 1.The City of Unalaska is extremely interested in seeingthisfeasibilitystudycompletedandhasexpressedthatinterestintwocitycouncilresolutions(enclosed). City staff have been involved in the negotiations with Native corporations and have served in an advisory capacity to the Power Authority's feasibility study review committee. 2.The Power Authority's agreement with the Aleut Corporation requires that we conduct a feasibility studyonaspecifiedschedule.However,upon completion of the feasibility study,if the Aleut Corporation elects to finance and develop the project,it will reimburse the Power Authority for expenses incurred during the feasibility program. 3.Funding for this feasibility study is not an FY87 capital budget item.It is funded solely from prior-year appropriations. D.Options 1.Approve the staff recommendation and award of contract for the Unalaska Geothermal Feasibility Study. 2. Disapprove the recommendation and award and remit to staff for further review.: 3.Cancel the feasibility study contract award. 4.Hold all action in abeyance. E.Recommendation Option 1:Approve the staff recommendation and award ofcontractfortheUnalaskaGeothermalFeasibilityStudy. =ee Dew +Moore JA nap P /SA\Wwe.C Saute Clara)Ore ye?WusguileNaronPeer Sarg meres5588/616 2.|\eev te VORA ,oes panewnalJTIMIOUNT4-y| PA Wing,13f8 _mst attnMrrityCheG2]16 nna 33.07.Of APPROVAL OF FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS FOR THE UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR RECONNAISSANCE STUDY A.Action Item Consideration and transmittal of the Findings and Recommenda- tions of the Unalaska/Dutch Harbor Reconnaissance Study, including a recommendation to allocate $640,000 from the rural feasibility appropriation to conduct a detailed feasibility study of the geothermal power alternative. B.Background 1.A Reconnaissance Study of Energy Requirements and Alter- natives for Unalaska/Dutch Harbor was initiated in August 1983 by a consultant under contract to the Power Authori- ty.After reviewing the consultant's draft report, submitted in April 1984,Power Authority staff decided to expand the study to include the results of (a)the Power Authority's geothermal drilling and exploration programand(b)an energy load study being conducted by the City of Unalaska.With the agreement of the consultant,Power Authority staff completed the study using methods and data from the consultant's draft report.The results are contained in a Power Authority report entitled Unalaska/Dutch Harbor Reconnaissance Study Findings.andRecommendation,April 1985. 2.The Power Authority recently completed its exploration and drilling program for geothermal resource assessment on Unalaska Island.The results of this program have confirmed the existence of an extremely productive geothermal reservoir twelve miles west of the City of Unalaska.If converted to electrical energy,the reser- voir is capable of meeting even the most optimistic load forecasts for the island in the foreseeable future. 3.The reconnaissance study used net present value calcu- lations to compare alternative power system plans for Unalaska based on three possible population and load growth scenarios.It analyzed three potential hydroelec- tric power systems and various sizes of two potential geothermal power systems and compared them to a diesel system base case.The two geothermal power system technologies were selected for analysis on the basis of the characteristics of the geothermal reservoir dis- covered and tested under the exploration and drilling program.A sensitivity analysis was conducted to 9191/367/1 determine the effect of various discount rates and fuel escalation rates on the economics of the alternatives. The reconnaissance analysis indicates that a geothermal power system using diesel generators for backup and peaking is the most economical source of electricity for the community of Unalaska/Dutch Harbor.The study recommends initiation of a detailed feasibility study of the geothermal alternative. Unalaska is named in SLA 1981,Chapter 90,Section 6 as a community for which funds are allocated for a rural power system feasibility study. The City of Unalaska,which owns and operates the local electric utility,has passed a resolution requesting the Alaska Power Authority to conduct a feasibility study for a geothermal power facility on the island. C.Issues 1.Industrial electric loads,particularly those associated with the seafood processing industry,account for the greatest and most variable proportion of the total electric load on the island.Currently,most of theindustrialloadisnotprovidedbythecityutility, although interties have been constructed to allow for future supply from a central plant.Actual electrical energy usage is poorly monitored by the industry.A feasibility study should include a detailed analysis of the existing industrial loads in the market area and should formulate an industrial load duration curve. Many factors are apt to affect the future electric loadgrowthatUnalaska.Some major ones include:(a)the future of the Bering Sea commercial fisheries and the potential for establishment of a bottomfish industry at Unalaska,(b)whether the future trend in seafood pro-cessing is toward shore-based or floating processors,(c) the potential for broadening the industrial base with support facilities to service Bering Sea oil and gas exploration and production efforts,and (d)the potential for other projects and activities likely to increase future electric loads,such as the proposed airport runway extension,the proposed establishment of a U.S. Coast Guard search and rescue facility at Dutch Harbor, and the future of the tourism industry on the island. These and other factors affecting load growth should be -analyzed in a feasibility study. 9191/367/2 9191/367/3 Potential industrial customers,currently unserved by thecityutility,have expressed their interest in purchasingelectricpowerfromthecityifitcanbeofferedateconomicrates.A feasibility study should analyze theindustry's current cost of power production and thecity's anticipated cost of production with a geothermalpowerfacilitytodeterminethepotentialforaddingtheseindustrialuserstothecitysystem.Addingindustrialcustomerstothecitysystemwouldcreateasignificantlevelofunuseddieselgenerationcapacityontheisland.A feasibility study should analyze thispotentialcapacityandthecity's avoided cost to deter-mine the possibility of utilizing this diesel capacityforbackupandpeakingpurposes. The City of Unalaska is moving its electric power planttoanewlocationwhichisnotconnectedtotheexistingwasteheatsystem.A feasibility study should analyzethepotentialforbuildingawasteheatsystematthenewlocationandtheeffectthiswouldhaveontheeconomics of a geothermal power facility.It should also analyzethepotentialforusingtheeffluentfromageothermalpowerplantfordirectusessuchasheatinggreenhousesorfish-hatchery rearing ponds. Numerous geothermal power system technologies have beendevelopedandusedworldwide,while still other proto- types have been extensively tested and proved successful.A feasibility study should carefully analyze the range ofavailabletechnologyand,using the data obtained fromtheexplorationanddrillingprogram,determine the most suitable geothermal technology for the conditions atUnalaska,considering reservoir characteristics,cost, and reliability. A geothermal power facility would need to be sited near the resource,which is located twelve miles west of the community in rugged terrain across a_three-mile, deep-water bay.A feasibility study should analyze the most suitable road and transmission line routes and conceptual designs best suited to local topographic and weather conditions. The Unalaska geothermal site is located in an active seismic region and in close proximity to an activevolcano.In addition,any development in such ruggedterrainwouldrequireattentiontoslopestability.Afeasibilitystudyshouldincludegeotechnicalandgeolog-ic engineering investigations to assess hazards as well as foundation conditions and construction material availability. Geochemical investigations have revealed that the geothermal fluids produced at the site are relatively benign.A feasibility study should analyze streamflow and water quality standards to determine appropriategeothermaleffluentdisposalpractices. D.Costs As shown below,the estimated cost of a geothermal power system feasibility study for Unalaska is $640,000.The funds for this project would be allocated from the rural community feasi Secti Load bility appropriation authorized by SLA 1981,Chapter 90, on 6. forecast and cost of power studies $50,000 Geothermal power system technology assessment and cost estimates 70,000 Waste heat and ancillary geothermal energy use assessment 20,000 Road and transmission route and conceptual design analysis and cost estimates 150,000 Geotechnical and geologic engineering studies 200 ,000 Environmental and water quality studies *§0,000 Economic evaluation 100 ,000 E.Options 1.Approve the Findings and Recommendations for the Unalaskareconnaissancestudyandtheallocationof$640,000 to conduct a geothermal power system feasibility study.The study and findings and recommendations would be submittedtotheOfficeofManagementandBudget(OMB)in accor- dance with AS 46.83.179.OMB has 30 days to approve or disapprove the study. 2.Disapprove the Findings and Recommendations and refer to 9191/367/4 staff for revisions. er re eee F.Recommendation Adopt Option 1:Approve the Findings and Recommendations and allocation of funds for a feasibility study. 9191/367/5 CITY OF UNALASKA P.O.BOX 89 UNALASKA,ALASKA 99685 (907)581-1251 "Capital of the Aleutians” UNALASKA,ALASKA CITY OF UNALASKA UNALASKA,ALASKA RESOLUTION 84-64 A RESOLUTION SUPPORTING GEOTHERMAL POWER IN UNALASKA WHEREAS:The Alaska Power Authority has conducted an exploration Of Geothermal potential on Makushin Volcano,and WHEREAS:That exploration led to the discovery of the Reeder Geothermal Field,and WHEREAS:It appears that the energy in that field is sufficienttogenerateelectricityforUnalaska. NOW THEREFORE BE IT RESOLVED that 'The Unalaska City Council urges the Alaska Power Authority to+26 conduct a study of the feasibility of commercial developmentsgpeotthe:Reeder -Geothermal Field on Makuskin., PASSED -AND APPROVED THIS 11TH DAY OF OCTOBER,1984 BY THECITY:-COUNCIL 'OF THE CITY OF UNALASKA,ALASKA.ce aes &.si William Fisher Mayor City clerk UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR RECONNAISSANCE STUDY FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS Summary SUMMARY STATEMENT A geothermal power system using diesel generators for backup and- peaking appears to be the most economical source of electricity for the community of Unalaska/Dutch Harbor.It is recommended that the Alaska Power Authority conduct a detailed feasibility study of this energy alternative. METHODS The reconnaissance study uses net present value calculations to compare alternative power system plans for Unalaska based on three possible population and load growth scenarios.It analyzes three potential hydroelectric power systems proposed by the U.S.Corps of Engineers,Alaska District,and it evaluates various sizes of two potential geothermal power systems.The two geothermal power sys- tem technologies were selected for analysis on the basis of the characteristics of the geothermal reservoir discovered and tested under the Alaska Power Authority's Unalaska Geothermal Exploration Program.The alternative plans are based on the assumption that diesel generators will be used to provide power demand that cannot be met by the alternative system.A 40-year net present value of each of the alternatives analyzed is compared to the net present value of a total diesel power system that would meet the demands of the respective growth scenario over the same period.The analysis uses a 3.5%discount rate and a 1985 fuel price of 87.6 cent/gallon which decreases 4%the first year,remains constant for the next two years,and then increases by 2%annually for the remainder of the 20-year planning period.A sensitivity analysis is conducted to determine the economic effect of a 4.5%discount rate and the following fuel escalation rates: ott 1986 1987 1988 1989-2005ditLow4% 4%4%an)fat!Medium -4 0%0%+24 High 0%0%0%+3..5% ASSUMPTIONS Low Growth Scenario For the purposes of this analysis,it is assumed,under the low growth scenario,that the population of Unalaska/Dutch Harbor wil] 9197/369/F1 Paye 1 increase at a rate of 2 percent annually for the next twenty years. (Over the last twenty years,the net population increase reflected a 9 percent annual growth.)Residential,conmercial,and city ser- vices loads are calculated,based on this 2 percent annual in- crease,and reflect a 2.7 percent annual increase in non-industrial loads. The industrial load forecast,consisting primarily of the seafood processing industry,is based on past industrial loads on the is- land and recent projections with respect to the fisheries industry.- Due to a coincident decline in the population of several species of shellfish,the commercial fisheries landings at Unalaska/Dutch Har- bor decreasea significantly between 1980 and 1982 but have remained relatively level since 1982.The industrial electric loads fol- lowed this decline and continued to decrease through 1984 with the closing of several seafood processing plants.Consequently,there are numerous industrial facilities on the island currently not.in use.Recent fisheries studies indicate that the shellfish popu- lations have reached a minimum and have begun a_recovery.The in- dustrial load forecast in this study is based on an industrial load survey done in 1983 after the decline in the fisheries landings but prior to the most recent processor closings.The low growth sce- nario assumes that the industrial load will return to its 1983 lev- el by 1995 and remain at that level through 2005.This is con- sidered a minimal increase,even with a slow recovery of the fisheries in the region. Moderate Growth Scenario The moderate growth scenario assumes a 4 percent annual increase in the population of Unalaska/Dutch Harbor for twenty years.This in- crease may be the result of a moderate rate of recovery of the fisheries in the region or the broadening of the industrial base with the establishment of oil and gas production services or a proposed U.S.Coast Guard search and rescue facility.Based on this population growth,the calculated non-industrial electric load increases by 4.8 percent annually for the 20-year planning period. The industrial load is assumed to return to its 1983 level by 1990 -and to continue to increase an additional 50 percent by 1995 where it remains through 2005. High Growth Scenario The high growth scenario assumes the establishment of a low-level bottomfish industry at Unalaska beginning in 1986.This would cause the population to increase at a rate of 11 percent annually for the 20-year planning period.It would cause non-industrial loads to increase by 11.8 percent annually.Industrial loads are based on the assumption that 25 percent of the bottomfish would be processed at Unalaska/Dutch Harbor.This bottomfish load is added 9197/369/F1 Page 2 to the moderate growth scenario industrial load to arrive at the high growth total industrial load. DESCRIPTION OF ALTERNATIVES The study analyzes various sizes of two geothermal systems:a total flow system and a binary system.These two geothermal processes were selected for analysis because they both exhibit high efficien- cy with two-phase (liquid and vapor)geothermal fluids,which is characteristic cf the geothermal resource discovered at Unalaska,- and because they are both cost competitive at the small unit sizes needed to meet the power demand at Unalaska.The total flow system separates the two-phase fluid into steam and water which is piped to a specially designed nozzle where it is recombined in specified proportions to maximize the thermal and kinetic energy to drive an impulse turbine.The binary system separates the two-phase fluid and uses the water to preheat and evaporate a binary-fluid such as isobutane or freon.The geothermal steam then superheats the bina- ry vapor which is used to drive a turbine generator.The sizes of the various geothermal alternatives analyzed are given below. The study also analyzes two small hydroelectric systems that have been proposed by the U.S.Corps of Engineers.One is located on the Shaishnikof River and is designed to produce 700 KW and the other,on Pyramid Creek,is rated at 260 KW.The analysis evalu- ates each of these proposals as they would stand alone and also an- alyzes them together as a combined hydroelectric system. Alternative A--Total Flow Geothermal System Alternative No.Of Units Size (MW) Atl i 2.1 A(2)2 4.2 A(3)3 6.3 A(4)4 8.4 A(5)5 10.5 A(6)6 12.6 Alternative B--Binary Geothermal System Alternative No.Of Units Size (MW)B(1)1 3.3 B(2)2 6.70 B(3)3 10.05 B(4)4 13.40 9197/369/F1 Page 3 Alternative C--Hydroelectric System Alternative Watershed Size (MW)C{1)Shaishnikof 70 C(2)Pyramid .26 C(3)Both .96 RESULTS The results of the study are summarized in the following graphs which depict the population and electric load forecasts used and illustrate the net present value and cost-to-cost ratios of the op- timum alternatives for each growth scenario and the diesel base case.The analysis shows that,for the low and moderate growth scenarios,a two unit (4.2 MW)total flow geothermal system,using diesel generators for backup and peaking,is the most economical source of electric power for the Unalaska/Dutch Harbor market area. For the high growth scenario,a five-unit (10.5 MW)total flow geothermal system is most economical.The sensitivity analysis in- dicates that these conclusions would change only under a condition of low growth and low fuel escalation. RECOMMENDATION Based on these findings,it is recommended that the Alaska Power Authority conduct a detailed feasibility study of a geothermal pow- er system at Unalaska/Dutch Harbor. 9197/369/F1 Paye 4 UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR POPULATION HISTORIC AND FORECAST TRENDS 1965-2005 13.0 HISTORIC FORECAST Zo Ov oe4Pin 3maocoF 0.0 Tt TT TT Pt rrr t Tt rrr tt tT T rT YT TTT TTT TrTrrTr?Fort 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 YEAR OQ LOW GROWTH +MODERATE GROWTH o HIGH GROWTH LOW GROWTH SCENARIO 100 90 80 - A <70 4 o5So 60 - "¢ a Ra 50 +4 a3 20 we 404 ou %&)30 + Z1a TOTAL LOAD 20 4 a INDUSTRIAL LOAD10+ NON-INDUSTRIAL LOADiaee 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 YEAR ENERGYUSE(MWh-yr)(Thousands)ENERGYUSE(MWh-yr)(Thousands)100 100 ELECTRIC LOAD FORECAST 1985-2005 MODERATE GROWTH SCENARIO 4 4 TOTAL LOAD INDUSTRIAL LOAD 4 "+ NON-INDUSTRIAL LOAD .:--r --T s -y r t 7 r -+ 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 YEAR HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO 7 TOTAL LOAD 7 INDUSTRIAL LOAD -NON--INDUSTRIAL LOAD T aL . --Sa 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 8 ESS 5 ORR EE SOS =. L 2, MOONY 22 IRR Re AR ne . =g+ RE 2 ANS SSGMew a SOT SIRT ARRAS g. ISSSSSSSS2g¢se 22828828.C8 uc4yqiryyy) (84¥11I90q €861T) ANIVA LIXNS6HHd LAN B(1)B(2)B(3) ALTERNATIVES A(3)A(4)A(2)BASE CASE LOW GROWTH SCENARIO COST/YCOST RATIOS SS " iwo s. %, \,Sd : SS. * SSSNe Aaa wo Nera oO SY MAMAS . N.BN SNS, N =" SAN N BS \ - Iee ee P REY T B(3) T B(2)A(4)A(3) if A(2) TTNN wt5omal Tq ry Aon mn- o ° ooo°90 Oo LSOO AAILVNYALIV'LSOD 3SWD ASVEA o c(2)C3)c(t)B(1) ALTERNATIVES ALTERNATIVESPOWERSYSTEMCOSTOF 110 + MODERATE GROWTH SCENARIO | CMMUA 8LLL LLL LLL JT pyELL LLL EEMLLLLLAYELLUMLLLLBULLE LL LLM. SULLILE.MEALEENO LILLLLL TOGGLE 100 ghd ®®&3SCS UOTITITIV) (f2¥1IO0 C861) ANIVA LNASAUYd LAN BASE CASE B(t)B(2)B(3)c(i)¢c(2)c(3) ALTERNATIVES A(2)A(3)A(4) COST/COST RATIOS MODERATE GROWTH SCENARIO SMMa 'CMM IMLLMM:NNxLdST "UN 0.8-+4 Ceeeee ererSer) wet mt tt mttet LSOD AAILVNYUALIV' LSOD ASVD aSVA +<oeMULZeo 8 6 ee ee ALTERNATIVES (1983Dollars)(Millions)VALUENETPRESENTTERNATIVECOSTro,CASECOSTAHABASECOST OF POWER SYSTEM ALTERNATIVES HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO 190 er ee ee ne ;180 4179465.8 165.8 164.1 163.5>|Snare160-4 : 150 +”' 140 -131.4 130 120.6 120 +110.4 BS tO 4 1 98.9 100.0 x |'et y 100 +-or S > { K 4 'a ) 4 'oS x \'90 -++S 80 -K) 70 +4 60 -4 50 + 40 + / Lx 0 7 T aeneemen an be T T BASE CASE A(4)A(5)A(6)B(2)B(3)B(4) ALTERNATIVES T q-T T c(i)c(2)c(3) COSTYCOST RATIOS RIGH GROWTH SCENARIO PP004o,Solero!onXewerneeS<ate'eterateXLoOesfate'ee A(S)(6)B(2)B(3)(4)c(t)c(2)-c(3) ALTERNATIVES SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS 4.5%DISCOUNT RATE \ Ns : . wotKON OA N. aN wwee - c(3) awareLOL:<XOXSohNAAN SYSINSQQ4u4 B(1) 7aaa SSNRQQANY<SOAYSS - S4 SNSXXNwSNYONNe QVARAYK HA, LOW GROWTH SCENARIO 2OSWSS SASSER ASSSS.LO,SNSSSRQ QeSQ<< c(3) 3.5%DISCOUNT RATE SS Zz. NNANRSSN=SS x. SS HRA \SNROXSERSN\NSNeenWwNe T SSNESS RN -_ NoaNSSS4 0 - 0 - QO - 0 ©9*=&(spursnoy,) (S2¥1I0q €861T) ANIVA LNASHUd LAN BASE CASE M2)BUt)BASE CASE A(2) HIGH9%Bes RATEFUELESCALATION 7a MEDIUM[77]Low SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS MODERATE GROWTH SCENARIO 3.5%DISCOUNT RATE 4.5%DISCOUNT.RATE... YA, 0, VAaa - T NSSVA, C(3) PUEL ESCALATION SA. -- B(1) >PYPyPY T hh hao GEQ SS T 120 110 + 100 - 0 (spussenoyL) (s2¥trod CS86T) ANIVA LNASSUd LAN c(3)BASE CASE A(2)BASE CASE A(2) Real HIGH RATE MEDIUM(72)Low NETPRESENTVALUE(1983Dollars)(Thousands)SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS HAIGH GROWTH SCENARIO \\N\aNVASWOK3.5%DISCOUNT RATE 4.5%DISCOUNT RATE NSBASE CASE A(5)B(3) V7)Low Alternatives Base Case A (5) C(3)LWWE44BASE CASE A(5)B(3)C(3) FUEL ESCALATION RATE "ZA MEDIUM HIGH | Diesel-powered generator system -Total flow geothermal system (five units) -Binary geothermal system (three units)0Fuel Escalation Rates Low Medium High 1985 5.876/gal §.876/gal §.876/gal Hydroelectric system (Shaishnikof and Pyramid) 1987 1988 1989-2005 -4%-4%0% x 0%+2% 0%0%+3.5% SY¥.I7-OCF CITY OF UNALASKA UNALASKA,ALASKA RESOLUTION 85-67 A RESOLUTION SUPPORTING GEOTHERMAL POWER IN UNALASKA WHEREAS:The Alaska Power Authority has conducted an exploration of Geothermal potential on Makuskin Volcano,and WHEREAS:The energy in the Reeder Geothermal Field is sufficient to generate electricity for Unalaska,and WHEREAS:The Community of Unalaska would benefit from this unigue and valuable source of energy,and WHEREAS:.The City of Unalaska is currently planning for longrangeenergydemands,including whether to continue modernizing current diesel generating facilities,and WHEREAS:The outcome of the Makuskin Geothermal Feasibility Study could play a major role in those plans, NOW THEREFORE BE IT RESOLVED that The Unalaska City Council urges the Alaska Power Authority to undertake a study of the economic feasibility of development of this resource in the near future, PASSED AND APPROVED THIS wsDAY OF Mcebecre..1985NALBYTHECITYCOUNCILOFTHECITYOFUASKA,ALASKA. om bet Lj Bi Sth Sed a de Nal Ms iy Mah Di tt to SiPgulFuh ayor fat ane ad nd aad Sat Bet tt init ind 4 deed as Sieh tne tee Met ton del nd taGlendaMartinCurrier City Clerk DEG (20% .Y RECEIVED NOY 01 1984 CITY OF UNALASKA UNALASKA,ALASKA RESOLUTION 84-64 A RESOLUTION SUPPORTING GEOTHERMAL POWER IN UNALASKA WHEREAS:The Alaska Power Authority has conducted an exploration of Geothermal potential on Makushin Volcano,and WHEREAS:That exploration led to the discovery of the Reeder Geothermal Field,and WHEREAS:It appears that the energy in that field is sufficient to generate electricity for Unalaska. NOW THEREFORE BE IT RESOLVED that The Unalaska City Council urges the Alaska Power Authority to to conduct a study of the feasibility of commercial development of the Reeder Geothermal Field on Makuskin, PASSED AND APPROVED THIS 11TH DAY OF OCTOBER,1984 BY THE CITY COUNCIL OF THE CITY OF UNALASKA,ALASKA, So Yates sane ;AK -William Fisher Mayor Gle da Marti Cit#Clerk