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HomeMy WebLinkAboutFort Yukon Biomass Resource Assessment 2010 Fort Yukon Biomass Resource Assessment Will Putman, Forestry Director Tanana Chiefs Conference, Forestry Program Fairbanks, Alaska September 30, 2010 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY As part of an effort to develop a woody biomass energy system in Fort Yukon, Alaska, a biomass resource assessment was conducted. The purpose of the assessment was to build a model that would serve to estimate biomass stocking, growth, sustainability, and cost using a geographic information system (GIS) and relational database technology with available information. Cover type was interpreted from high-resolution satellite imagery for an area within a 5-mile radius of Fort Yukon, and combined with ownership data, interpreted site class information, defined management restrictions, forest inventory information, cost parameters, and an array of parameters and assumptions used to estimate growth. The model as initially established produced an estimate of 462,958 green tons of woody biomass within the project area, with an estimated annual allowable harvest of 9,517 tons. The model is intended to be used as a land management planning tool, and was designed to be as flexible as possible, allowing future information developments and refinements to be used to evaluate biomass supply, cost, and sustainability under a variety of scenarios. i TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION..................................................................................................................... 1 DATA COMPONENTS ........................................................................................................... 2 Forest Inventory Data ................................................................................................... 2 Remotely-sensed imagery .......................................................................................... 4 Cover Type Data ................................................................................................................ 4 Site Class ............................................................................................................................... 7 Ownership Data ................................................................................................................ 7 Management Concerns or Restrictions ............................................................. 10 DATA PROCESSING ........................................................................................................... 10 Spatial Data Intersection .......................................................................................... 10 Proximity to village....................................................................................................... 10 Assigning stocking figures to stands ................................................................. 10 Estimating AAC and assigning rotation and growth parameters to stands.................................................................................................................................... 12 Cost modeling .................................................................................................................. 16 ANALYSIS AND RESULTS ............................................................................................... 16 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS .................................................................................................... 21 ii iii LIST OF TABLES Table 1. Wood density of tree species of interior Alaska........................ 12 Table 2. TCC Forest Inventory Strata, Associated Project Cover Types, and woody biomass green tons/acre. .......................................... 13 Table 3. Maturity codes assigned to Cover Types................................. 15 Table 4. Cost parameters used in the analysis..................................... 15 Table 5. Woody biomass tonnage and Annual Allowable Cut (AAC) by cover type ................................................................................. 17 Table 6. Woody biomass tonnage and Annual Allowable Cut (AAC)......... 19 Table 7. Woody biomass tonnage and Annual Allowable Cut (AAC)......... 19 Table 8. Woody biomass tonnage and Annual Allowable Cut (AAC)......... 20 Table 9. Woody biomass tonnage by species....................................... 20 Table 10. Woody biomass tonnage and Annual Allowable Cut (AAC)....... 21 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1. Location of Fort Yukon in Alaska................................................................. 2 Figure 2. Fort Yukon project area as defined by Ikonos imagery extent....... 5 Figure 3. Fort Yukon project area cover type classes............................................ 6 Figure 4. Fort Yukon project area site classes.......................................................... 8 Figure 5. Fort Yukon project area land ownership.................................................. 9 Figure 6. Fort Yukon project area management designations......................... 11 Figure 7. Fort Yukon project area woody biomass tons/acre........................... 18 Figure 8. Fort Yukon project area woody biomass cost of harvest, transport, and management........................................................................ 22 INTRODUCTION Rapidly increasing fossil fuel costs have resulted in a heightened sense of urgency when considering the ability of small communities to absorb these costs and maintain some sense of community sustainability. There are few places where this is more severe than rural communities in interior Alaska, where fossil fuel dependence, energy costs, and remoteness are conspiring to produce an energy crisis that is becoming increasingly difficult for these small communities to deal with. These conditions have resulted in increased interest in any available form of alternative energy that may possibly be deployed. In interior Alaska, the presence of apparently large amounts of woody biomass has increased the consideration of biomass energy systems to help address this crisis. Fort Yukon is a community in interior Alaska located near the confluence of the Porcupine and Yukon Rivers in the Yukon Flats in Northeastern interior Alaska (Figure 1). Fort Yukon is not located on a contiguous highway system and is accessible only by air and river, with resultant high costs of imported energy. To help remedy this, the residents of Fort Yukon have been considering the installation of biomass energy systems for some time. Planning efforts have included several organizations, including the Council of Athabascan Tribal Governments (CATG), the Gwitchyaa Zhee Corporation (Fort Yukon’s Native village corporation), and Alaska Village Initiatives (AVI), with funding provided at various phases of the project by the U.S Department of Energy (DOE) and the Alaska Energy Authority (AEA). Much planning and analysis has taken place concerning the size, type, and placement of biomass energy facilities, and techniques and equipment for harvesting and transporting the biomass required. However, available information has been lacking to answer basic questions concerning the amount, availability, and sustainability of the biomass resources in the vicinity of the community. These questions include: • How much biomass is there in the vicinity of the community? • What are the characteristics of the biomass (size, species, quality)? • Where is the resource located? • Who owns the resource? • What are the costs associated with getting the resource to an energy facility? • What management restrictions are there are on the resource? • Considering growth rates, cover type conversions, and other factors, what is the sustainability of the resource? • How large a biomass energy facility could be economically supported on a sustainable basis by the local biomass resource? This report is an attempt to document an approach to answer these questions with available information, using information management tools such as a geographic information system (GIS) and relational databases. The process described here is meant to present a model for the handling of information to answer these questions, and in that regard does not constitute an end product. In those cases where information is lacking or unavailable, assumptions have been made and documented, with the idea that improved information in the future can be used to improve the model. It is intended that the model itself be a useful tool in the land management required to support a proposed biomass energy project. In an attempt to keep the geographic extent of this project within some reasonable and practical scope, this project will focus on that area within about a 5 mile radius of Fort Yukon. This decision is driven by the desire to focus on those resources most easily available to the community, and by the availability of current relevant information such as high-resolution satellite imagery. Within that geographic extent, the analysis will consider all land ownerships. 1 Figure 1. Location of Fort Yukon in Alaska. DATA COMPONENTS This biomass assessment relied heavily on a computerized geographic information system (GIS) and relational database technology to store, process, query, and analyze data. The GIS software used was ArcGIS 9.3 from ESRI, Inc., and the relational database software used was Microsoft Access. The GIS was used to spatially define the location of various attributes of the landscape, the combination of those attributes for any given location on the landscape, and the acreage associated with each combination of attributes. A relational database was used to combine the attribute and area information produced by the GIS with other tabular information to calculate and derive information such as biomass stocking, growth, and annual allowable harvest. Some of the derived information was then stored back in the GIS layers to facilitate mapping of the derived data. The spatial data used in the GIS consisted of layers of vector data (points, lines or polygons defined by X,Y coordinates) with associated attribute records, or raster data in the form of digital imagery used to produce some of the vector data. The vector data was stored and managed as feature classes in a personal geodatabase, which uses the format of a MS Access database to store the spatial data. Forest Inventory Data In interior Alaska, as in many places, woody biomass is a forest resource. The process of trying to assess the amount and location of forest resources falls under the purview of forest inventories, a traditional and essential component of forestry and forest 2 management. Forest inventories cover a wide range of projects; they can be very broad or quite specific, they can be intensive or extensive, they can cover broad landscapes or a very specific land base, and they can include any one of a large number of sampling techniques, data processing options, and analyses. This project is essentially a form of forest inventory, with particular interests and requirements that are driven by the land management required to support proposed biomass energy projects. Any current or past forest inventory information for Fort Yukon’s biomass resources would be an important data source for the current effort. Previous forest inventory projects conducted in the vicinity of Fort Yukon include projects conducted by the Tanana Chiefs Conference (TCC) Forestry Program in the 1980s and 1990s. A project was conducted on Fort Yukon’s ANCSA village corporation lands (Gwitchyaa Zhee lands) in 1982, and an inventory was conducted on Native allotments in that part of the region in 1988. TCC also conducted village inventories elsewhere in the Yukon Flats region at Beaver (1985) and Circle (1999). In the TCC projects, the areas included were interpreted for land cover type using high- altitude color-infrared aerial photographs dating from the late 1970s. The Fort Yukon village corporation inventory only included those ANCSA village selections within one-half mile of the Yukon River, and the allotment inventory was restricted to Native allotment parcels, no larger than 160 acres each, in the region. Within each project, forested cover types covering the highest proportion of area were selected for field sampling by randomly selecting accessible stands within those types. Field sampling was accomplished by visiting the selected stands on the ground and installing a series of variable radius plots and conducting tree measurements. Sample trees were measured for species, tree diameter, tree height, and percent defect, and a small number of white spruce trees were measured for radial growth and age. The collected field data were processed and compiled in the office with a computer to produce timber volume per acre figures by species and size class within strata defined as groupings of similar cover types. The volume per acre figures were then extrapolated to all forested areas within the extent of the projects. The timber volume per acre figures calculated in the inventories included both board-foot and cubic-foot estimates. For the purposes of evaluating a forest resource as an energy source, it is most appropriate to focus on the cubic-foot estimates, since they represent the total woody biomass volume on the main stem of trees below a minimum top diameter (usually 4”), and not just the amount of recoverable wood when processing trees for lumber. There are a number of serious limitations in this available forest inventory data that need to be considered. The inventories are quite “extensive”, that is, the geographic scope was relatively large and the intensity of the field sampling was relatively low. Forest cover types with relatively low acreages were not field sampled at all, but were lumped into similar types that were sampled, with resulting inaccuracies in the volume estimates. The photography used to produce the land cover typing was a nearly a decade old at the time the inventories were conducted, and is now 30 years old or more, and does not take into account the changes that have no doubt occurred on the landscape. Only village corporation selections or Native allotments are included in the inventories, with no consideration given to the land cover on other ownership classes. The data collection was focused on the standing stock, and what little growth information was collected is difficult to apply in any meaningful way with regards to estimates of site and forest growth. Only the biomass represented by the main boles of trees is included in the volume estimates, with no attention paid to whole tree biomass or non-timber species such as alder or willow. That being said, the data contained in those old inventory projects still provide a useful starting 3 point for evaluation of biomass energy resources. The primary contribution of these data lies in the per-acre stocking estimates that can be applied to similar cover types in the area. Remotely-sensed imagery This project is reliant on the existence of some means to identify the land cover on areas in the vicinity of Fort Yukon. In the available older forest inventories, this was accomplished with the use of 1:63,360 and 1:31,680 scale color-infrared aerial photography collected in the late 1970s. The dynamic nature of boreal forest landscapes, with disturbances commonly resulting from forces such as river erosion and wildfires, requires the use of more current data sources if available. The requirements of this data would include: • Detailed enough to be useful in determining land cover at a suitable scale. • Extensive enough to cover an area large enough to conduct a meaningful analysis • Available in digital, georeferenced forms to be able to be included in modern geographic information systems for data storage, query, and analysis. In the case of Fort Yukon, these criteria are met by the existence of Ikonos high-resolution satellite imagery, collected in 2005 by Space Imaging and made available through a non- commercial unrestricted license. The available imagery is actually a mosaic of several images, and covers an area approximately 9x9 miles centered over Fort Yukon (Figure 2). The imagery has 4 bands (red, green, blue, near-infrared), and has a spatial resolution of 1 meter. The extent of this imagery defines the extent of this biomass assessment project, although the model represented by this project can be expanded to cover additional imagery in the future. Cover Type Data The Ikonos imagery was classified to identify homogenous cover type areas. In forestry terminology, these areas can be thought of as “stands”, and are created and stored as polygons in a GIS (Figure 3). For this project, delineation and attributing of the polygons was accomplished using a combined automated and manual approach. In a cooperative arrangement with the Fairbanks Area Office of the State of Alaska Division of Forestry, an attempt was made to process the imagery with eCognition software to delineate and attribute cover type areas. However, it was determined that there were practical limitations as to how detailed the classification could be as determined by the software, so the decision was made to use the software to delineate polygons, attribute them for broad cover type designations for species, then manually interpret the imagery in an attempt to attribute the polygons to a more detailed level for size class and density. At both levels, existing cover type calls from the older inventories and ground truth data from sampled forest stands were referenced whenever possible to guide the classification. 4 Figure 2. Fort Yukon project area as defined by Ikonos imagery extent. 5 Figure 3. Fort Yukon project area cover type classes. 6 Site Class It was assumed that site productivity is a critical factor when attempting to determine the growth of biomass on the landscape, a key factor when evaluating biomass sustainability. For the purposes of this analysis, 4 broad site classes were defined and a GIS layer was created to describe the location of site class areas in the project area. The 4 site classes defined were: • Site Class 0 – areas incapable of producing woody biomass such as rivers, lakes, seasonally submerged sandbars, wetland bogs, etc. • Site Class 1 – areas of relatively poor site in terms of woody biomass production, such as poorly drained areas and north-facing slopes with underlying continuous permafrost. These sites may have cover types such as tall shrubs, dwarf shrubs (dwarf birch, etc.), black spruce or other slow-growing unproductive cover types. • Site Class 2 – areas of intermediate productivity such as lower slopes adjacent to wetlands, areas underlain by permafrost but with some productive tree cover, etc. • Site Class 3 – Areas of relatively high productivity such as south-facing slopes, well- drained benchlands, and productive riparian sites. In the GIS, all areas of the project area were classified into one of the 4 site classes, using the cover type polygons as the basis for classification and interpreting the areas on the satellite imagery. This information exists as a feature class in the geodatabase, and is displayed as a layer in the GIS (Figure 4). Ownership Data A key component of the analysis is the determination of which individual or organization owns or has management responsibilities for the lands on which the biomass resource is found. This is accomplished through the use of a GIS layer that defines land ownership in the vicinity of Fort Yukon. Several data sources were used to compose this layer: • Conveyed ANCSA corporation lands, acquired from Doyon, Ltd. This serves to identify lands owned by Gwitchyaa Zhee, the local Fort Yukon ANCSA village corporation, and Doyon, Ltd., the regional ANCSA corporation. • Generalized land status, acquired from State of Alaska Department of Natural Resources. This dataset identifies land ownerships, but only to the section level. In other words, a section (square mile) is the smallest land area identified by these data; multiple ownerships within a section, and overlapping selections make this a potentially confusing dataset to employ. Nonetheless, it is useful for identifying various forms of State and Federal land status. • Native allotments, acquired from the Bureau of Land Management (BLM). These are relatively small parcels (up to 160 acres) applied for and transferred to individual Alaska Natives through the authority of the Allotment Act of 1906. Native allotments are usually retained in a restricted federal trust status, where they are owned by individual allottees or their heirs, but are managed in trust by the Federal government. In most cases, this management responsibility has been compacted or contracted to tribal organizations, including Tanana Chiefs Conference or, in the case of many of the parcels near Fort Yukon, the Gwichyaa Zhee Gwich’in Tribal Government. These data were created by BLM by digitizing Native allotment parcels from township Master Title Plats (MTPs) or from survey data created and stored in BLM’s Spatial Data Management System (SDMS). • Other ownerships, including military reserves, as identified on the township Master Title Plat at Fort Yukon. These data were combined into one comprehensive ownership layer and stored in the GIS (Figure 5). No attempt was made to research the detail of private land and townsite lots within and immediately adjacent to the community of Fort Yukon itself, since it was felt that 7 Figure 4. Fort Yukon project area site classes. 8 Figure 5. Fort Yukon project area land ownership. 9 most of the biomass management and harvesting would be focused on lands beyond the immediate vicinity of the village. That information could be researched and incorporated into the model at any point in the future, if necessary. Management Concerns or Restrictions An attempt was made to include the ability to identify areas of different management restrictions or concerns. This can be anything that is of importance to the land owners or the community related to the potential of harvesting and transporting biomass. Culturally important sites, areas of subsistence use or other resource use, aesthetic concerns, barriers to operations, management restrictions, or any other factor that may affect the availability of the biomass resources for energy use could be incorporated into this layer. Additional community input and changing social conditions could make this a very dynamic dataset, so it is important to retain the ability to change this information over time and reassess biomass resource availability. As a starting point, this layer was created by identifying 3 broad land designations and creating a GIS layer (Figure 6): • Areas that define the village itself. • Areas of potential all-season road access. • Areas requiring crossing of rivers to access. DATA PROCESSING Starting with the basic datasets described above, there were several data processing steps that were conducted to prepare for data analysis. Spatial Data Intersection The GIS polygon layers for cover type, ownership, site class, and management were “intersected”. Intersection is a GIS overlay process that combines features from multiple overlapping layers into one layer that contains all the attributes of the input layers. In this case 3,662 cover type polygons, 159 ownership polygons, 1,585 site class polygons, and 3 management polygons were intersected to produce a feature class with 4,407 polygons attributed for cover type, ownership, site class, and management, referred to hereafter as the “intersected layer”. Proximity to village The distance of each stand from the proposed boiler site location in the village will affect the cost of transporting the resource. This can easily be determined in the GIS through a number of techniques. The existence of a transportation plan with proposed access routes would be an important information source to help evaluate these transportation costs, but the lack of such a plan forced the use of a much simpler method. The centroid point of each polygon in the intersected layer was determined and stored in a feature class, and the distance in miles from each centroid point to the proposed boiler site was calculated using geoprocessing tools in the GIS software. The village proximity distance value was stored as an attribute in the intersected layer for further analysis. Assigning stocking figures to stands The TCC inventory database contains a table for stand stocking that consists of records with timber volume data by species and size class for individual sampled stands and defined strata. A query was developed that summarized the cubic-foot volume per acre figures in this table for individual strata and converted them into green tons per acre figures using researched conversion data (Table 1). A list of the cover types present in the cover type GIS layer was prepared, and each cover type was associated with a stratum in the TCC inventory database. Strata from projects conducted at Fort Yukon, Circle and Upper Yukon 10 Figure 6. Fort Yukon project area management designations. 11 Tree Species Green Density (lbs/cubic foot) Air-dry density (lbs/cubic foot) White spruce 36 31 Black spruce 32 28 Paper birch 48 38 Aspen 43 27 Balsam poplar 38 24 Tamarack 47 37 Table 1. Wood density of tree species of interior Alaska. Native allotments were used, with strata being subjectively associated with cover types giving consideration to the actual stocking data that comprise the strata summaries and other factors (Table 2). Using the polygon cover type codes, the GT/acre figures were related to polygons in the intersected GIS layer and stored in the attribute table. Multiplying the GT/acre figure by the acreage for each stand produces an estimate of total green tons/acre for all areas in the project. Estimating AAC and assigning rotation and growth parameters to stands In order to assess sustainability, the traditional forestry concept of Annual Allowable Cut (AAC) was applied. AAC is deemed to be the maximum level of annual harvest that is possible in perpetuity without diminishment of the level of harvest or the amount and quality of the resource. There are a variety of techniques used to calculate AAC, including the “Hanzlik formula”, which was designed to attempt to deal with areas still in an unmanaged “old-growth” state. The Hanzlik formula uses mature standing volume, rotation length, and growth (increment) as parameters required to calculate AAC: Allowable cut (AAC) = (Mature Standing Volume / Rotation ) + Growth Standing volume is determined from the inventory data as described above, but figures for rotation length and growth are more difficult to determine. “Rotation”, or “rotation length” refers to the hypothetical length of time required for a forest stand to reforest, grow, and replace itself after harvest. At first glance this appears quite simple, but there are a number of complicating factors, including: • What species the stand regenerates to – different species will grow at different rates and mature at different time intervals. • Site potential may vary over time; in fact, in interior Alaska, the act of harvesting (or other disturbances, such as fire) may change the growth potential of a site. • Anything other than even-aged management may complicate the determination of rotation length, particularly if it involves multiple tree species and multiple stand entries in a rotation. • Differing economic conditions or other factors may dictate a different array of forest products requiring material to reach different sizes or ages to be marketable. 12 TCC Forest Inventory Stratum Included Cover types Green Tons/Acre Circle HP3 HWP3 29.8 Circle SP3 WSP3 50.0 Circle SS/CWS1 WSS/CWS1 8.2 Circle SS/CWS3 WSS/HWP2, WSS/CWP2, WSS/CWP3, WSS/CWS3, WSS/HWS2, WSS/CWS2 25.2 Circle SS/HP3 WSS/HWP3 42.9 Fort Yukon CWP1 CWP/WSR1 16.2 Fort Yukon CWP2 CWP2, CWP3, CWP2/TS 15.6 Fort Yukon SP1 WSP1/DS, WSP1/HWR, WSP1, WSP1/TS 21.4 Fort Yukon SP2 WSP2, WSP2/HWR, WSP2/TS 24.9 Fort Yukon SS1 WSS1, WSS1/TS 18.6 Fort Yukon SS2 WSS2/TS, WSS2 32.6 UY Native Allotments BSP1 BSP1, BSP2, BSP3 8.5 UY Native Allotments CWP1/TS CWP1, CWP1/TS, CWS1 5.7 UY Native Allotments CWS2 CWS2, CWS3 17.4 UY Native Allotments HP/SP2 HWP/WSP1, HWP/WSP2 16.1 UY Native Allotments HP1 HWP1 11.8 UY Native Allotments HP2 HWP2 19.4 UY Native Allotments SP/CWP2 CWP/WSP2, CWP/WSP3, CWS/WSP2, CWS/WSS2, CWS/WSS3, WSP/CWP2, WSP/CWP3 27.2 UY Native Allotments SP/HP2 WSP/HWP1, WSP/HWP2 29.9 UY Native Allotments SP/HP3 HWP/WSP3, WSP/HWP3 31.3 UY Native Allotments SS3 WSS3 55.7 Table 2. TCC Forest Inventory Strata, Associated Project Cover Types, and woody biomass green tons/acre. Similarly, “growth” can be a concept that may be simple to visualize, but involves a number of factors that make it difficult to determine with any precision. The ability to gauge the capacity of woody biomass to grow and replace itself after harvest is a critical component of any assessment that would attempt to evaluate the sustainability of the resource. Unfortunately, this is one area where hard data to drive the analysis is in short supply. It is an exceedingly complex situation that is being modeled – growth rates of individual trees and the stands they grow in vary by site, species, tree age, stand age, stand density, reproductive capacity, disturbance regime, and other factors, and all in cumulative and interactive ways. Growth models for the boreal forest are in development at the University of Alaska Fairbanks and with the U.S. Forest Service and may prove to be useful. In the meantime, this effort applies some broad and exceedingly gross assumptions in an attempt to get a handle on growth and sustainability. For both growth and rotation, the approach taken was to establish an optimal value for each, then adjust the values based on other conditions. Based on TCC inventory data, 13 maximum biomass stocking in high-volume spruce stands, presumably on good sites, is in the neighborhood of 60 tons/acre. Employing the concept of mean annual increment (MAI), and assuming a stand age of 120 years to produce this volume, this would indicate a maximum of 0.5 tons/acre/year on the best sites. Interestingly, roughly similar rates can be arrived at with productive hardwood stands; TCC’s inventory data indicates total biomass tons of well-stocked cottonwood, birch, or aspen stands to be in a somewhat lower range (~20-50 tons/acre), with lower stand ages to be expected to produce those volumes (~50- 80 years). Based on this, a value of 0.5 tons/acre/year is assumed as an optimum mean growth rate. Optimal rotation length is assumed to be 50 years, based on a hypothetical rotation length for the deciduous broadleaf tree species (birch, aspen, and balsam poplar). Although white spruce has traditionally been the favored species for timber management in interior Alaska, it is assumed that managing for hardwoods is desirable from a woody biomass perspective because of faster juvenile growth rates, shorter rotations, ease in regenerating, importance in wildlife habitat, and desirability from a community wildfire protection perspective. Several key assumptions were made to facilitate adjusting the optimum growth and rotation figures based on the availability of existing information. The assumptions used in this analysis to estimate growth and rotation include: 1. Relatively mature stands will show less current increment (growth). 2. Fully stocked stands will show best realization of potential increment. 3. Lower site quality will result in longer rotations Implementing the first assumption relies on coming up with a method of determining maturity for a forest stand. Maturity is an attribute that would be a function of stand age which, since it is lacking in the available data, can only be arrived at for a stand indirectly through interpretation of the other cover type attributes of species, size class, and density. All cover types in the project were assigned a maturity code from 0 to 4 using the above guidelines in a VERY subjective way (Table 3). Each of the 4 maturity codes were assigned a relative growth rate expressed as a proportion of optimum growth; these proportions could be greater than 1.0 for those ages (maturity level) where growth may be greater, and less for those ages where growth may be less, such as early in the establishment of a stand or in an older decadent stand. The optimum growth proportions assigned to each maturity level were: Maturity Growth proportion 1 0.3 2 1.2 3 1.2 4 0.5 The second assumption of stand stocking levels influencing relative growth can be dealt with more directly using the stand density component of the cover type calls. Each of the 3 density codes were assigned a relative growth rate expressed as a proportion of optimum growth in the same manner as the maturity codes: Stand Density Growth Proportion 1 (0-30% crown closure) 0.3 2 (30-60% crown closure) 0.6 3 (60-100% crown closure) 1.0 14 Maturity Code Cover Types 0 DS, TS/W, TS, R, B, W, DS/W, Cu, Ba 1 HWR/WSR, CWR/WSR, CWR, HWR/DS, BSD/TS, BSD, HWR, WSR/CWR, HWR/BSD, WSR, WSR/HWR, WSR/DS 2 HWP1, HWP/WSP1, WSS1, CWP/WSP2, WSS/CWS1, CWP1, CWP1/TS, CWP2, CWP2/TS, CWS1, CWP/WSR1, WSP1/DS, WSP3, WSS2/TS, WSS2, WSP2, WSP1/HWR, WSP/CWP2, WSP1, WSS1/TS, BSP1, WSP/HWP1, BSP2, WSP1/TS 3 CWP/WSP3, BSP3, CWS/WSP2, CWP3, WSS/HWS2, WSS/CWS2, WSP2/TS, WSP2/HWR, CWS2, WSP/HWP3, WSS/HWP2, HWP/WSP2, WSP/HWP2, HWP2, CWS/WSS2, WSP/CWP3, WSS/CWP2 4 WSS3, WSS/CWS3, HWP3, HWP/WSP3, CWS3, WSS/HWP3, CWS/WSS3, WSS/CWP3 Table 3. Maturity codes assigned to Cover Types. Cost Type Cost Stumpage (payments to owner), cost per ton $ 5 Harvest Costs Costs per acre $200 Costs per ton of woody biomass $ 10 Transportation costs Cost/ton/mile all-season access $ 2 Cost/ton/mile winter access $ 4 Reforestation – cost per acre $100 Table 4. Cost parameters used in the analysis. Similarly, the third assumption of relative growth varying by site quality is handled by taking the site class codes as assigned to areas on the landscape and adjusting the optimal rotation of 50 years upwards for poorer site classes: Site Class Rotation (years) 0 none 1 90 2 70 3 50 By applying queries in the database, allowable cut figures were calculated for every stand in the project area. Growth for each individual stand is determined by multiplying the optimum growth rate (0.5 tons/acre/year) by the growth proportion number assigned to the maturity code associated with that stand, and multiplied again by the growth proportion number assigned to the stand density of the stand. Rotation length for each stand is determined by applying the rotation length assigned to the site class of the stand. The resulting figures for growth and rotation are used with the stocking of each stand in the 15 Hanzlik formula to generate an AAC for each stand. The resulting AAC figures for each stand are not meant to mean that some calculated portion of every stand is a portion of the volume cut in any given time frame, but refers to the contribution that the resource represented by that stand contributes to the harvestable volume of biomass over the project as a whole. Through the other attributes assigned to each stand by creating the intersected layer, both standing stock and AAC figures can be broken out by ownership, management option, proximity to the village, or other stand attributes. Cost modeling In addition to estimates of the amount and growth of the woody biomass resource, it is also useful to estimate the costs involved in making the biomass available to an energy facility. This estimation could include the modeling of costs associated with harvesting, transport, reforestation, stumpage, and other costs. At this stage of the project, much is unclear in terms of type of harvest and equipment to be used, the nature and extent of the transportation network to be established, and other cost factors, but all of these factors can be modeled in the GIS and reported back from the database. Table 4 presents a list of cost factors used in this analysis as an example of how these costs could be modeled. Per acre costs are converted into costs per ton for each polygon. The parameter for harvest costs per acre functions to drive harvest costs up for low volume stands. Transportation costs are driven by distances from the village, which at this point are defined only by straight-line proximity distance measurements determined in the GIS, and by the access type as defined by the management option layer. All of these costs could be adjusted, refined, ignored, other costs added, etc., and the overall cost scenarios recalculated. One interesting ramification of this is that it is possible to evaluate AAC based on different cost thresholds. ANALYSIS AND RESULTS Woody biomass green tonnage and AAC figures were summarized from the database by cover type, cover type class, ownership, management option, and distance from the village (Tables 5, 6, 7, and 8). It must be considered that any combination of these attributes can be queried from the database, and can also be displayed in the GIS to evaluate graphically the location of the resource. What is shown here is merely a sample of how the data may be summarized and displayed. Total standing stock of woody biomass for the extent of the project is 462,958 green tons (Table 5, Figure 7). The bulk of that is on village corporation land (283,484 tons, 61%), followed by regional corporation land (102,663 tons, 22%) and Native allotments (76,840 tons, 17%). The majority of the standing stock (72%) is found in white spruce poletimber and mixed species poletimber cover types (Table 6). Of particular importance is the result that 92% of the standing stock is in the “water access” management designation, indicating additional costs and logistical concerns for accessing most of the biomass resources in the project area (Table 7). 83% of the standing stock is greater than 3 miles from the boiler site in the village (Table 8). When broken out by species, 84% of the standing stock is white spruce (Table 9). It may be worth considering that the highest value of the resource may be as dimension lumber when available; for that reason, the tonnage of white spruce sawtimber board feet was extracted from the database and estimated to be 15% of the standing stock (Table 9). This calculation considers only the board foot volume of white spruce greater than 9 inches DBH, and does not include recoverable board foot volume in smaller material or the slabwood and other “waste” that could be recovered as woody biomass when logs are sawn up for lumber. 16 Standing Green Tons Cover Type Acres Green Tons AAC BSD 177 0 27 BSD/TS 116 0 17 BSP1 9 74 1 BSP2 19 160 2 BSP3 74 627 9 CWP/WSP2 137 3,743 75 CWP/WSP3 172 4,688 93 CWP/WSR1 57 927 19 CWP1 401 2,303 40 CWP1/TS 273 1,568 29 CWP2 1,119 17,498 339 CWP2/TS 139 2,171 43 CWP3 364 5,698 111 CWR 1,295 0 194 CWR/WSR 5 0 1 CWS/WSP2 6 174 3 CWS/WSS3 9 256 5 CWS1 5 27 1 CWS2 148 2,579 51 CWS3 74 1,290 26 HWP/WSP1 20 329 5 HWP/WSP2 458 7,377 105 HWP/WSP3 363 11,370 166 HWP1 35 410 6 HWP2 152 2,947 40 HWP3 24 707 9 HWR 1,935 0 290 HWR/BSD 202 0 30 HWR/DS 1,396 0 209 HWR/WSR 914 0 137 WSP/CWP2 182 4,960 84 WSP/CWP3 108 2,939 58 WSP/HWP1 900 26,911 384 WSP/HWP2 920 27,503 422 WSP/HWP3 455 14,261 220 WSP1 946 20,226 322 WSP1/DS 133 2,833 40 WSP1/HWR 260 5,552 78 WSP1/TS 521 11,126 179 WSP2 4,060 101,242 1,934 WSP2/HWR 270 6,736 96 WSP2/TS 39 962 18 WSP3 1,626 81,294 1,466 WSR 817 0 123 WSR/CWR 74 0 11 WSR/DS 341 0 51 WSR/HWR 1,177 0 177 WSS/CWP2 80 2,009 40 WSS/CWP3 29 741 15 WSS/CWS1 26 216 4 WSS/CWS2 37 941 19 WSS/CWS3 23 578 12 WSS/HWP2 16 404 8 WSS/HWP3 49 2,091 42 WSS/HWS2 4 108 2 WSS1 30 561 10 WSS1/TS 642 11,965 238 WSS2 1,710 55,672 1,099 WSS2/TS 5 169 3 WSS3 252 14,037 276 Totals: 25,829 462,958 9,517 Table 5. Woody biomass tonnage and Annual Allowable Cut (AAC) by cover type 17 Figure 7. Fort Yukon project area woody biomass tons/acre. 18 Standing reen Tons Cover Type Class Acres Green Tons AAC Black spruce 395 860 56 Cottonwood poletimber 2,296 29,238 562 Cottonwood sawtimber 227 3,895 78 Hardwood poletimber 211 4,063 55 Mixed poletimber 3,773 105,010 1,631 Mixed sawtimber 281 7,516 150 Reproduction 8,155 0 1,223 White spruce poletimber 7,853 229,971 4,134 White spruce sawtimber 2,639 82,404 1,627 Totals: 25,829 462,958 9,517 Table 6. Woody biomass tonnage and Annual Allowable Cut (AAC) by cover type class. Standing Green Tons Ownership Management Acres Green Tons AAC ANCSA Regional Corp. Water access 9,093 102,633 1,760 Total: 9,093 102,633 1,760 ANCSA Village Corp. All-season 6,756 27,333 1,044 Water access 29,993 256,152 5,045 Total: 36,749 283,484 6,089 Native Allotments All-season 1,910 9,120 289 Water access 4,167 67,720 1,380 Total: 6,077 76,840 1,669 Grand Total: 51,919 462,958 9,517 Table 7. Woody biomass tonnage and Annual Allowable Cut (AAC) by ownership and management. 19 Distance from Standing Green Tons Boiler Site Acres Green Tons AAC 0-1 miles 130 2,428 47 1-2 miles 2,158 25,704 652 2-3 miles 3,547 50,714 1,190 3-4 miles 6,854 132,415 2,708 4-5 miles 8,336 163,706 3,170 5-6 miles 4,456 81,780 1,629 6-7 miles 349 6,211 120 Totals: 25,829 462,958 9,517 Table 8. Woody biomass tonnage and Annual Allowable Cut (AAC) by distance from boiler site. Total Sawtimber Board Foot Species Green Tons Green Tons White Spruce 387,281 67,995 Black Spruce 1,683 Birch 24,337 Aspen 7,441 Balsam Poplar 42,215 Totals: 462,958 67,995 Table 9. Woody biomass tonnage by species. Calculated Annual Allowable Cut (AAC) totals 9,517 tons per year. There are a number of “reproduction” cover types that show no standing stock volume, but do contribute to the AAC figures. It is implied that the reproduction cover types do not currently have standing volume, or at least are not affiliated with timber-bearing strata in the inventory database, but do have growing stock in those stands that can be considered when estimating the growth potential of the project area. Table 10 and Figure 8 display available green tons of woody biomass by cost threshold, using the assumed cost parameters described above. Using those parameters, 90% of the woody biomass is available for $50 per green ton or less. Annual Allowable Cut is also calculated for these cost thresholds in an attempt to describe what the AAC might be if operations were limited by costs, although it is difficult to compare this across the board since the reproduction areas that contribute to AAC because of growth occurring on those sites do not have a standing stock of woody biomass that is possible to assign cost estimates to. 20 Total Green Tons Total Cost per Ton Available AAC Available < $30 13,236 226 < $40 182,566 3,298 < $50 416,819 7,424 < $60 457,984 8,164 < $70 458,470 8,172 < $80 461,090 8,218 < $90 462,958 8,250 Table 10. Woody biomass tonnage and Annual Allowable Cut (AAC) by cost threshold. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Many thanks are owed to the staff at the Fairbanks Area Office of the State of Alaska Division of Forestry, especially Doug Hanson for repeated conversations and consultations, and Dan LaBarre for the eCognition classification work. Fabian Keirn, TCC Forester, did the manual cover type classification refinement work. And, thanks to Alaska Village Initiatives and their representatives, especially Bill Wall and Peter Olsen, for supporting funding for this work and for promoting the development of alternative renewable energy in rural Alaska. 21 Figure 8. Fort Yukon project area woody biomass cost of harvest, transport, and management. 22