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HomeMy WebLinkAboutMcGrath Biomass Resource Assessment 2011 McGrath Biomass Resource Assessment Will Putman, Forestry Director Tanana Chiefs Conference, Forestry Program Fairbanks, Alaska March, 2011 McGrath Biomass Resource Assessment i EXECUTIVE SUMMARY As part of an effort to develop a woody biomass energy system in McGrath, Alaska, a biomass resource assessment was conducted. The purpose of the assessment was to build a model that would serve to estimate biomass stocking, growth, sustainability, and cost using a geographic information system (GIS) and relational database technology with available information. Land cover was interpreted from high-resolution satellite imagery for an area with ranging from 3.3 to 5.7 miles from McGrath, defined as Phase 1 of the assessment. In addition, archived land cover from a forest inventory conducted on McGrath ANCSA village corporation lands (MTNT, Ltd.) was included in the assessment, defined as Phase 2. The land cover data was compiled with local forest inventory data to determine woody biomass stocking levels, and combined with ownership data, interpreted site class information, defined management restrictions, cost parameters, and an array of parameters and assumptions used to estimate growth. The model as initially established produced an estimate of 390,909 green tons of woody biomass within the Phase 1 of the project area, with an estimated annual allowable harvest of 10,800 tons. The analysis of Phases 1 and 2 combined yielded estimates of 1,566,094 green tons of woody biomass, with an annual allowable harvest of 44,142 tons. The model is intended to be used as a land management planning tool, and was designed to be as flexible as possible, allowing future information developments and refinements to be used to evaluate biomass supply, cost, and sustainability under a variety of scenarios. McGrath Biomass Resource Assessment ii TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION..................................................................................................................... 1 DATA COMPONENTS ........................................................................................................... 2 Geographic scope ................................................................................................................. 3 Remotely-sensed imagery ................................................................................................ 4 Cover Type Data ................................................................................................................... 4 Forest Inventory Data ........................................................................................................ 7 Site Class ................................................................................................................................. 9 Ownership Data .................................................................................................................. 11 Management Concerns or Restrictions ...................................................................... 13 Road access .......................................................................................................................... 13 DATA PROCESSING ........................................................................................................... 16 Spatial Data Intersection ................................................................................................ 16 Proximity to village ............................................................................................................ 16 Assigning stocking figures to stands .......................................................................... 16 Estimating AAC and assigning rotation and growth parameters to stands . 18 Cost modeling ...................................................................................................................... 21 ANALYSIS AND RESULTS ............................................................................................... 23 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS .................................................................................................... 35 McGrath Biomass Resource Assessment iii LIST OF TABLES Table 1. Land cover classification and coding system used................................ 8 Table 2. Wood density of tree species of interior Alaska.................................... 17 Table 3. TCC forest inventory strata, associated project cover types, and woody biomass green tons/acre....................................................... 17 Table 4. Maturity codes assigned to Cover Types .................................................. 20 Table 5. Cost parameters used in the analysis....................................................... 22 Table 6. Woody biomass green tonnage (GT) and Annual Allowable Cut (AAC) by cover type ........................................................................................ 25 Table 7. Woody biomass tonnage and Annual Allowable Cut (AAC) by cover type class.......................................................................................... 27 Table 8. Woody biomass tonnage and Annual Allowable Cut (AAC) by ownership and management, Phase 1..................................................... 28 Table 9. Woody biomass tonnage and Annual Allowable Cut (AAC) by ownership and management, Phase 2..................................................... 29 Table 10. Woody biomass tonnage and Annual Allowable Cut (AAC) by ownership and management, Phases 1 and 2...................................... 30 Table 11. Woody biomass tonnage by species, Phase 1.................................... 31 Table 12. Woody biomass tonnage by species, Phase 2.................................... 31 Table 13. Woody biomass tonnage by species....................................................... 31 Table 14. Woody biomass tonnage and Annual Allowable Cut (AAC) by distance from boiler site.......................................................................... 32 Table 15. Woody biomass tonnage and Annual Allowable Cut (AAC) by cost threshold, Phase 1........................................................................... 32 Table 16. Woody biomass tonnage and Annual Allowable Cut (AAC) by cost threshold, Phase 1 and 2.............................................................. 32 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1. Location of McGrath in Alaska...................................................................... 2 Figure 2. Location of McGrath Project Phases........................................................... 3 Figure 3. Ikonos imagery and Phase 1 project area.............................................. 5 Figure 4. Phase 1 and 2 land cover classes and recent wildfire perimeters.6 Figure 5. McGrath project area site classes............................................................. 10 Figure 6. McGrath project area land ownership..................................................... 12 Figure 7. McGrath project area management designations.............................. 14 Figure 8. McGrath area roads........................................................................................ 15 Figure 9. McGrath Phase 1 project area woody biomass tons/acre............... 25 Figure 10. McGrath Phase 1 and 2 project area woody biomass tons/acre............................................................................. 26 Figure 11. McGrath project area woody biomass cost of harvest, transport, and management, Phase 1..................................................... 33 Figure 12. McGrath project area woody biomass cost of harvest, transport, and management, Phase 1 and 2........................................ 34 McGrath Biomass Resource Assessment 1 INTRODUCTION Rapidly increasing fossil fuel costs have resulted in a heightened sense of urgency when considering the ability of small communities to absorb these costs and maintain some sense of community sustainability. There are few places where this is more severe than rural communities in interior Alaska, where fossil fuel dependence, energy costs, and remoteness are conspiring to produce an energy crisis that is becoming increasingly difficult for these small communities to deal with. These conditions have resulted in increased interest in any available form of alternative energy that may possibly be deployed. In interior Alaska, the presence of apparently large amounts of woody biomass has increased the consideration of biomass energy systems to help address this crisis. McGrath is a community in Southwestern interior Alaska located on the Kuskokwim River at the mouth of the Takotna River (Figure 1), approximately 220 air miles northwest of Anchorage and 275 air miles southwest of Fairbanks. Although it serves as a hub for the Upper Kuskokwim region, McGrath is not located on a contiguous highway system and is accessible only by air and river, with resultant high costs of imported energy. To help remedy this, the residents of McGrath have been considering the installation of biomass energy systems. Planning efforts have included several organizations, including MTNT Ltd. (the local Alaska Native Claims Settlement Act (ANCSA) village corporation), the McGrath Native Village Council (MNVC), Alaska Village Initiatives (AVI), and Tanana Chiefs Conference (TCC). Funding for the phase of the project that includes this biomass resource assessment effort has been provided by the Alaska Energy Authority (AEA) through the State of Alaska’s Renewable Energy Fund. Although planning efforts have taken place for a potential biomass energy facility in McGrath, available information has been lacking to answer basic questions concerning the amount, availability, and sustainability of the biomass resources in the vicinity of the community. These questions include: • How much biomass is there in the vicinity of the community? • What are the characteristics of the biomass (size, species, quality)? • Where is the resource located? • Who owns the resource? • What are the costs associated with getting the resource to an energy facility? • What management restrictions are there are on the resource? • Considering growth rates, cover type conversions, and other factors, what is the sustainability of the resource? • How large a biomass energy facility could be economically supported on a sustainable basis by the local biomass resource? This report is an attempt to document an approach to answer these questions with available information, using information management tools such as a geographic information system (GIS) and relational databases. The process described here is meant to present a model for the handling of information to answer these questions, and in that regard does not constitute an end product. In those cases where information is lacking or unavailable, assumptions have been made and documented, with the idea that improved information in the future can be used to improve the model. It is intended that the model itself be a useful tool in the land management required to support a proposed biomass energy project. Figure 1. Location of McGrath in Alaska. DATA COMPONENTS This biomass assessment relied heavily on a computerized geographic information system (GIS) and relational database technology to store, process, query, and analyze data. The GIS software used was ArcGIS 9.3 from ESRI, Inc., and the relational database software used was Microsoft Access. The GIS was used to spatially define the location of various attributes of the landscape, the combination of those attributes for any given location on the landscape, and the acreage associated with each combination of attributes. A relational database was used to combine the attribute and area information produced by the GIS with other tabular information to calculate and derive information such as biomass stocking, growth, annual allowable harvest, and cost information. Some of the derived information was then stored back in the GIS layers to facilitate mapping of the derived data. The spatial data used in the GIS consisted of layers of vector data (points, lines or polygons (areas) defined by X,Y coordinates) with associated attribute records, or raster data in the form of digital imagery used to produce some of the vector data. The vector data was stored and managed as feature classes in a personal geodatabase, which uses the format of a MS Access database to store the spatial data. McGrath Biomass Resource Assessment 2 Figure 2. Location of McGrath Project Phases. Geographic scope The geographic scope of this assessment was originally defined to be the extent of an available high-resolution satellite image scene on file at Tanana Chiefs Conference, covering an area of 122 square miles within a radius of 4.5 to 9.3 miles of the center of McGrath. However, because of difficulty encountered when interpreting that imagery, a different image with a smaller extent was used, covering 56 square miles over an area 3.3 to 5.7 miles from the center of McGrath. This extent was further adjusted by expanding the scope of the analysis by 203 square miles to include archived forest inventory data covering the extent of McGrath village corporation lands selected by MTNT Ltd. In this report, the initial extent of the project defined by the extent of the satellite imagery used will be referred to as “Phase 1”, and the extension of the scope defined by the inclusion of the MTNT lands will be referred to as “Phase 2” (Figure 2). Since the area covered by Phase 2 is primarily in one ownership (MTNT Ltd.) and the source of the interpreted land cover is from a different source (late 1970’s aerial photography), the nature and comprehensiveness of the data and the analysis differs somewhat between the 2 phases. McGrath Biomass Resource Assessment 3 McGrath Biomass Resource Assessment 4 Remotely-sensed imagery This project is reliant on the existence of some means to identify the land cover on areas in the vicinity of McGrath. In the available older forest inventories, this was accomplished with the use of 1:63,360 and 1:31,680 scale color-infrared aerial photography collected in the late 1970s. The dynamic nature of boreal forest landscapes, with disturbances commonly resulting from forces such as river erosion and wildfires, requires the use of more current data sources if available. The requirements of this data would include: • Detailed enough to be useful in determining land cover at a suitable scale. This detail can take the form of higher spatial resolution (smaller image pixels) and/or higher spectral resolution (multiple narrower spectral bands). • Extensive enough to cover an area large enough to conduct a meaningful analysis. • Available in digital, georeferenced forms to be able to be included in modern geographic information systems for data storage, processing, query, and analysis. In the case of McGrath, these criteria were met by the existence of QuickBird high- resolution satellite imagery, collected in 2002 by DigitalGlobe, Inc. and made available through a civil organization license acquired by TCC. The proposal that generated the funding made available for this project was based on the existence of this imagery. However, difficulties were encountered while processing and interpreting the imagery to generate the land cover data that is the foundation of this assessment. Specifically, the image had been acquired early in the growing season (May 20, 2002), and differences in the timing of leaf emergence in vegetation across the image made the digital classification portion of the process inconsistent. As an alternative, a different image was made available by the State of Alaska, Division of Forestry and used instead. This image is an Ikonos image from Space Imaging, acquired June 27, 2002. The image is orthorectified, has 4 bands (red, green, blue, near-infrared), has a horizontal spatial resolution of 1 meter, and has a footprint of 56 square miles centered over McGrath (Figure 3). Cover type data For Phase 1 of the project, the Ikonos imagery was classified to identify homogenous cover type areas. In forestry terminology, these areas can be thought of as “stands”, and are created and stored as polygons in a GIS. For this project, delineation and attributing of the polygons was accomplished using a combined automated and manual approach. In a cooperative arrangement with the Fairbanks Area Office of the State of Alaska Division of Forestry, an attempt was made to process the imagery with eCognition software to delineate and attribute cover type areas. However, it was determined that there were practical limitations as to how detailed the classification could be as determined by the software, so the decision was made to use the software to delineate polygons, attribute them for broad cover type designations for species, then manually interpret the imagery in an attempt to attribute the polygons to a more detailed level for size class and density. At both levels, existing cover type calls from the older inventories and ground truth data from sampled forest stands were referenced whenever possible to guide the classification. Phase 2 of the project used land cover information generated for MTNT Ltd. lands as part of a forest inventory conducted by TCC Forestry in 2000 and 2001. This land cover information was created by stereo interpretation of high-altitude color-infrared aerial photography dating from the late 1970’s and digitization of the delineated stand information into a GIS. Land cover as interpreted for both Phase 1 and Phase 2 is shown in Figure 4. Figure 3. Ikonos imagery and Phase 1 project area. McGrath Biomass Resource Assessment 5 Figure 4. Phase 1 and 2 land cover classes and recent wildfire perimeters. McGrath Biomass Resource Assessment 6 McGrath Biomass Resource Assessment 7 For both phases, forested stands were attributed with a cover type code that included a determination of primary tree species, primary tree size class (dwarf, reproduction, poletimber, sawtimber), secondary tree species, secondary tree size class, and overall tree density (low, medium, and high crown closure) (Table 1). Non-forested areas were attributed for cover types such as water, tall shrub, bog, barren/cultural, etc. There have been several forest fires in the McGrath area whose effects were not captured on the satellite imagery used in the Phase 1 analysis or the older aerial photography used in the Phase 2 analysis. These include the Broken Snowshoe fire of 2009 on the north side of the Kuskokwim River upstream of McGrath, and the Vinisale fire of 2002 that burned large areas east and south of the McGrath. The spatial data defining the perimeter of those 2 fires were acquired from the BLM/Alaska Fire Service and overlain on the land cover data in the GIS (Figure 4). Forest inventory data In interior Alaska, as in many places, woody biomass is a forest resource. The process of trying to assess the amount and location of forest resources falls under the purview of forest inventories, a traditional and essential component of forestry and forest management. Forest inventories cover a wide range of projects; they can be very broad or quite specific, they can be intensive or extensive, they can cover broad landscapes or a very specific land base, and they can include any one of a large number of sampling techniques, data processing options, and analyses. This project is essentially a form of forest inventory, with particular interests and requirements that are driven by the land management required to support proposed biomass energy projects. Any current or past forest inventory information for McGrath’s biomass resources would be an important data source for the current effort. Previous forest inventory projects conducted in the vicinity of McGrath include a project conducted by the Tanana Chiefs Conference (TCC) Forestry Program in 2000 and 2001 on McGrath village corporation lands (MTNT Ltd.), and a very limited project conducted on Native allotments in the region in 1992. The McGrath village corporation inventory was used in this project to drive the biomass stocking estimates. Elsewhere in the upper Kuskokwim region, TCC Forestry has also conducted an inventory for village corporation lands at Nikolai (1985), and projects for the village corporation lands at Takotna and Telida that consisted only of interpreted land cover from aerial photography with no field sampling. In the TCC projects, the areas included were interpreted for land cover type using high- altitude color-infrared aerial photographs dating from the late 1970s. The village corporation inventories included those ANCSA village selections as determined at the time of the projects, and the Native allotment inventory was restricted to Native allotment parcels, no larger than 160 acres each. Within each project, forested cover types covering the highest proportion of area were selected for field sampling by randomly selecting accessible stands within those types. Field sampling was accomplished by visiting the selected stands on the ground and installing a series of variable radius plots and conducting tree measurements. Sample trees were measured for species, tree diameter, tree height, and percent defect, and a small number of white spruce trees were measured for radial growth and age. The collected field data were processed and compiled in the office with a computer to produce timber volume per acre figures by species and size class within strata defined as groupings of similar cover types. The volume per acre figures were then extrapolated to all forested areas within the extent of the projects. Tree Species Codes WS White spruce BS Black spruce HW Hardwood (Paper birch or Aspen)* CW Balsam poplar (cottonwood) * difficulties in differentiating between birch and aspen on satellite imagery and aerial photography cause these species to be combined into one species code. Tree Size Class Codes D Dwarf (< 4.5” DBH, relatively mature) R Reproduction (< 4.5” DBH, young) P Poletimber (4.5”-9.0” DBH) S Sawtimber (> 9.0” DBH) Tree Density Codes 1 Low density (<30% crown closure) 2 Medium density (30%-60% crown closure) 3 High density (> 60% crown closure) Other land cover codes R River W Water Cu, Cu97, Cu98 Cultural, human development Ba Barren B Bog TS Tall shrub TSW Tall shrub wet DS Dwarf shrub DSW Dwarf shrub wet DM Dry meadow WM Wet meadow Br Burned When a second tree species is coded, this indicates that the second species constitutes at least 30% of the stand. A size class is coded for each tree species coded, but only one overall density is coded. Density is only coded for stands with poletimber or sawtimber sized trees. Forested and non-forested combinations may be combined. The “Br” burned code is used as a prefix descriptor on another code. Examples: BSP1 Black spruce poletimber, low density. HWP/WSS2 Hardwood poletimber, white spruce sawtimber, medium density. WSS2/TS White spruce medium density sawtimber mixed with tall shrub. BrBSD Burned black spruce dwarf. HWR Hardwood reproduction. CWS1/TS Cottonwood sawtimber low density mixed with tall shrub Table 1. Land cover classification and coding system used. McGrath Biomass Resource Assessment 8 McGrath Biomass Resource Assessment 9 The timber volume per acre figures calculated in the inventories included both board-foot and cubic-foot estimates. For the purposes of evaluating a forest resource as an energy source, it is most appropriate to focus on the cubic-foot estimates, since they represent the total woody biomass volume on the main stem of trees below a minimum top diameter (usually 4”), and not just the amount of recoverable wood when processing trees for lumber. There are a number of serious limitations in this available forest inventory data that need to be considered. The inventories are quite “extensive”, that is, the geographic scope was relatively large and the intensity of the field sampling was relatively low. Forest cover types with relatively low acreages were not field sampled at all, but were lumped into similar types that were sampled, with resulting inaccuracies in the volume estimates. The photography used to produce the land cover typing was at least 20 years old at the time the McGrath village corporation inventory was conducted, is now 30 years old or more, and does not take into account the changes that have no doubt occurred on the landscape. Only village corporation selections or Native allotments were included in the inventories, with no consideration given to the land cover on other ownership classes. The data collection was focused on the standing stock, and what little growth information was collected is difficult to apply in any meaningful way with regards to estimates of site and forest growth. Only the biomass represented by the main boles of trees is included in the volume estimates, with no attention paid to whole tree biomass or non-timber species such as alder or willow. That being said, the data contained in those old inventory projects still provide a useful starting point for evaluation of biomass energy resources. The primary contribution of these data lies in the per-acre stocking estimates that can be applied to similar cover types in the area. Site class It was assumed that site productivity is a critical factor when attempting to determine the growth of biomass on the landscape, a key factor when evaluating biomass sustainability. For the purposes of this analysis, 4 broad site classes were defined to describe the location of site class areas in the project area. The 4 site classes defined were: • Site Class 0 – areas incapable of producing woody biomass such as rivers, lakes, seasonally submerged sandbars, wetland bogs, etc. • Site Class 1 – areas of relatively poor site in terms of woody biomass production, such as poorly drained areas and north-facing slopes with underlying continuous permafrost. These sites may have cover types such as tall shrubs, dwarf shrubs (dwarf birch, etc.), black spruce or other slow-growing unproductive cover types. • Site Class 2 – areas of intermediate productivity such as lower slopes adjacent to wetlands, areas underlain by permafrost but with some productive tree cover, etc. • Site Class 3 – Areas of relatively high productivity such as south-facing slopes, well- drained benchlands, and productive riparian sites. In the GIS, all areas of the project area were classified into one of the 4 site classes, using the cover type polygons and site location as the basis for classification and interpretation. This information was stored in the geodatabase by attributing the land cover polygons for site (Figure 5). Figure 5. McGrath project area site classes. McGrath Biomass Resource Assessment 10 McGrath Biomass Resource Assessment 11 Ownership data A key component of the analysis is the determination of which individual or organization owns or has management responsibilities for the lands on which the biomass resource is found. This is accomplished through the use of a GIS layer that defines land ownership in the vicinity of McGrath. Several data sources were used to compose this layer: • Conveyed ANCSA corporation lands, acquired from Doyon, Ltd. This serves to identify lands owned by MTNT Ltd. including lands selected as the ANCSA village corporation selections for McGrath, and Doyon, Ltd., the regional ANCSA corporation. • Native allotments, acquired from the Bureau of Land Management (BLM). These are relatively small parcels (up to 160 acres) applied for and transferred to individual Alaska Natives through the authority of the Allotment Act of 1906. Native allotments are usually retained in a restricted federal trust status, where they are owned by individual allottees or their heirs, but are managed in trust by the Federal government. In most cases, this management responsibility has been compacted or contracted to tribal organizations, including Tanana Chiefs Conference for allotments in the vicinity of McGrath. These data were created by BLM by digitizing Native allotment parcels from township Master Title Plats (MTPs) or from survey data created and stored in BLM’s Spatial Data Management System (SDMS). • Land status data compiled by the State of Alaska Division of Forestry in an effort to describe land ownership comprehensively across Alaska for wildfire management and planning purposes. The data acquired from elsewhere and used to construct this dataset include generalized land status acquired from BLM and processed and maintained by State of Alaska DNR, private land parcels identified on State land status plats, Borough tax lot information where it exists, and other sources. These data were combined into one comprehensive ownership layer and stored in the GIS (Figure 6). No attempt was made to research the detail of private land and townsite lots within and immediately adjacent to the community of McGrath itself, since it was felt that most of the biomass management and harvesting would be focused on lands beyond the immediate vicinity of the village. That information could be researched and incorporated into the model at any point in the future, if necessary. Land status research for the area covered by Phase 1 revealed the existence of several ownership classes, including regional and village ANCSA land, State land, Native allotments, and a relatively small amount of private land. This is not surprising, since the extent of Phase 1 was determined by the satellite image coverage in the immediate vicinity of McGrath regardless of ownership status. By contrast, the extent of Phase 2 was determined by the scope of the TCC McGrath forest inventory, which was restricted to village corporation selections at the time of the inventory. As a result, fewer ownership classes exist in Phase 2, including MTNT land, BLM land, and Native allotments. The BLM land exists in Phase 2 as a result of the difference between village corporation selections and actual conveyances as of 2010, and the Native allotments were included in the TCC inventory data as inholdings in the corporation land. Figure 6. McGrath project area land ownership. McGrath Biomass Resource Assessment 12 McGrath Biomass Resource Assessment 13 Management concerns or restrictions An attempt was made to include the ability to identify areas of different management restrictions or concerns. This can be anything that is of importance to the land owners or the community related to the potential harvesting and transporting of biomass. Culturally important sites, areas of subsistence use or other resource use, aesthetic concerns, barriers to operations, management restrictions, or any other factor that may affect the availability of the biomass resources for energy use could be incorporated into this layer. Additional community input and changing social conditions could make this a very dynamic dataset, so it is important to retain the ability to change this information over time and reassess biomass resource availability. As a starting point, this layer was created by identifying a number of land designations and creating a GIS layer (Figure 7): • Areas in and near the village itself; the “core” village areas, areas “near” the village, and areas a “mid” distance out. • Areas of potential all-season road access. • Areas of potential winter road access. • Areas of potential winter road access across rivers, requiring ice bridges. • Areas to be treated for hazardous fuel reduction as specified in the community CWPP. • Areas within 66 feet of a riverbank; affected by riparian buffer strip regulations as specified by the Alaska Forest Resources Practices Act. Road access Existing roads in the McGrath vicinity were digitized and stored in a GIS layer for use in the analysis (Figure 8). The most prominent feature of the road network at McGrath is an all- season road stretching 13 miles east of the village to Noir Hill across MTNT lands. This road network information was used in the analysis to help estimate the transportation component of the costs of supplying woody biomass to a facility in McGrath. Figure 7. McGrath project area management designations. McGrath Biomass Resource Assessment 14 McGrath Biomass Resource Assessment 15Figure 8. McGrath area roads. McGrath Biomass Resource Assessment 16 DATA PROCESSING Starting with the basic datasets described above, there were several data processing steps that were conducted to prepare for data analysis and reporting. The spatial data intersection and proximity determination steps described below used geoprocessing tools in the GIS software. Subsequent steps for assigning stocking figures, estimating annual allowable cut figures, and determining biomass supply costs were conducted using a series of database queries in MS Access. Spatial data intersection The GIS polygon layers for cover type, ownership, fire history and management were “intersected”. Intersection is a GIS overlay process that combines features from multiple overlapping layers into one layer that contains all the attributes of the input layers. In this case, 996 cover type polygons for Phase 1, 1,577 cover type polygons for Phase 2, 103 ownership polygons, 6 polygon features for recent fire history, and 29 management polygons were intersected to produce a feature class with 4,034 polygons attributed for cover type, ownership, site class, fire history and management, referred to hereafter as the “intersected layer”. Proximity to village and road distances The distance of each polygon, or stand, from the proposed boiler site location in the village will affect the cost of transporting the resource. This can be determined in the GIS through a number of techniques. The existence of a transportation plan with proposed access routes would be an important information source to help evaluate these transportation costs, but this information is currently lacking beyond what is known about the existing road network, as captured in the roads GIS layer described above. Using geoprocessing tools in the GIS software, 3 values were generated for each polygon in the intersected layer; straight-line distance from the polygon to the village center, straight-line distance from each polygon to the nearest point on the road network, and the road distance from that nearest road point to the village center. These distances were determined for “centroid” points determined for each polygon in the the intersected layer. A centroid is a point that defines the “center of gravity” for an area, or a point that represents the average horizontal location of an area. The centroid point of each polygon in the intersected layer was determined and stored in a feature class, and the distance from each centroid point to the village center and to the nearest point on the road network was calculated using proximity analysis geoprocessing tools in the GIS software. The road distance from the nearest point on the road network to the village center was determined for each centroid using network analyst tools in the GIS software. The 3 distances were calculated in miles and stored as attributes for the intersected layer for further processing in the cost analysis described below. Assigning stocking figures to stands The TCC inventory database contains a table for stand stocking that consists of records with timber volume data by species and size class for individual sampled stands and defined strata. A query was developed that summarized the cubic-foot volume per acre figures in this table for individual strata and converted them into green tons per acre (GT/acre) using researched conversion data (Table 2). A list of the cover types present in the cover type GIS layer was prepared, and each cover type was associated with a stratum in the TCC inventory database. Strata and cover type associations from the TCC McGrath forest inventory were used (Table 3); those cover type associations not defined in the McGrath inventory were subjectively assigned considering the species and stocking levels generated Tree Species Green Density (lbs/cubic foot) Air-dry density (lbs/cubic foot) White spruce 36 31 Black spruce 32 28 Paper birch 48 38 Aspen 43 27 Balsam poplar 38 24 Tamarack 47 37 Table 2. Wood density of tree species of interior Alaska. White spruce, Paper birch, Aspen and Balsam poplar figures are from the State of Alaska, Department of Commerce (http://www.commerce.state.ak.us/ded/dev/forest_products/forest_products5.ht m); Black spruce figures are from a Canadian website maintained by Lakehead University in Ontario (http://www.borealforest.org/); Tamarack figures are from an engineering website (http://www.engineeringtoolbox.com/weigt-wood- d_821.html). TCC Forest Inventory Stratum Included Cover types Green Tons/Acre BSP1 BSP1, BSP1/DS, BSP1/TS, BSP2, BSP2/DS, BSP2/TS, BSP/HWP2, BSP/HWP3, BSP3 9.6 CWS1/TS CWP2, CWP2/TS, CWP3, CWS1/TS, CWS2, CWS3 33.1 HWP/BSP1 HWP/BSP1, HWP/BSP2, HWP/BSP3, HWP1/BSD 25.9 HWP/WSP3 HWP/WSP3 45.1 HWP2 HWP1, HWP1/TS, HWP2, HWP2/BSD, HWP2/DS, HWP2/TS 26.1 HWP3 HWP3, HWP3/BSD 49.1 WSP/HWP2 WSP/HWP1, WSP/HWP2 28.7 WSP/HWP3 WSP/HWP3 38.4 WSP2 WSP1, WSP1/TS, WSP2, WSP2/TS 24.4 WSP3 WSP3 28.5 WSS/HWP2 HWP/WSP2, WSP/CWP2, WSP/CWP3, WSS/CWP2, WSS/CWP3, WSS/CWS2, WSS/CWS3, WSS/HWP1, WSS/HWP2 32.7 WSS/HWP3 WSS/HWP3 50.2 WSS1/TS WSS1/TS 30.7 WSS2 WSS2, WSS2/TS 31.6 WSS3 WSS3 60.6 Table 3. TCC forest inventory strata, associated project cover types, and woody biomass green tons/acre. McGrath Biomass Resource Assessment 17 McGrath Biomass Resource Assessment 18 from the inventory stocking data. Using the polygon cover type codes, the GT/acre figures for the strata were related to polygons in the intersected GIS layer and stored in the attribute table. Acreage for each stand in the intersected layer was calculated using tools in the GIS software and stored in the attribute table. Multiplying the GT/acre figure by the acreage for each stand in the intersected layer produces an estimate of total green tons of woody biomass for each stand. The biomass stocking estimates for those stands that were identified as recently burned from the inclusion of the recent fire history data were reduced by 50%. This was done because the land cover data as interpreted from the satellite imagery (Phase 1) or the aerial photography (Phase 2) predated the fires and the recognition that not all standing woody biomass is consumed in a wildfire. The applied 50% reduction is very subjective, but is based on professional observation and can be adjusted in future analyses if better data becomes available. Estimating AAC and assigning rotation and growth parameters to stands In order to assess sustainability, the traditional forestry concept of Annual Allowable Cut (AAC) was applied. AAC is deemed to be the maximum level of annual harvest that is possible in perpetuity without diminishment of the level of harvest or the amount and quality of the resource. There are a variety of techniques used to calculate AAC, including the “Hanzlik formula”, which was designed to attempt to deal with areas still in an unmanaged “old-growth” state. The Hanzlik formula uses mature standing volume, rotation length, and growth (increment) as parameters required to calculate AAC: Allowable cut (AAC) = (Mature Standing Volume / Rotation ) + Growth Standing volume is determined from the inventory data as described above, but figures for rotation length and growth are more difficult to determine or estimate. “Rotation”, or “rotation length” refers to the hypothetical length of time required for a forest stand to reforest, grow, and replace itself after harvest. At first glance this appears quite simple, but there are a number of complicating factors, including: • What species the stand regenerates to – different species will grow at different rates and mature at different time intervals. • Site potential may vary over time; in fact, in interior Alaska, the act of harvesting (or other disturbances, such as fire) may change the growth potential of a site, and as a result, the anticipated rotation length. • Anything other than even-aged management may complicate the determination of rotation length, particularly if it involves multiple tree species and multiple stand entries in a rotation. • Differing economic conditions or other factors may dictate a different array of forest products requiring material to reach different sizes or ages to be marketable. Similarly, “growth” can be a concept that may be simple to visualize, but involves a number of factors that make it difficult to determine with any precision. The ability to gauge the capacity of woody biomass to grow and replace itself after harvest is a critical component of any assessment that would attempt to evaluate the sustainability of the resource. Unfortunately, this is one area where hard data to drive the analysis is in short supply. It is an exceedingly complex situation that is being modeled – growth rates of individual trees and the stands they grow in vary by site, species, tree age, stand age, stand density, reproductive capacity, disturbance regime, and other factors, and all in cumulative and interactive ways. Growth models for the boreal forest are in development at the University of Alaska Fairbanks and with the U.S. Forest Service and may prove to be useful. In the McGrath Biomass Resource Assessment 19 meantime, this effort applies some broad and exceedingly gross assumptions in an attempt to get a handle on growth and sustainability. For both growth and rotation, the approach taken was to establish an optimal value for each, then adjust the values based on other conditions. Based on TCC inventory data, maximum biomass stocking in high-volume spruce stands, presumably on good sites, is in the neighborhood of 60 tons/acre. Employing the concept of mean annual increment (MAI), and assuming a stand age of 120 years to produce this volume, this would indicate a maximum mean annual increment of 0.5 tons/acre/year on the best sites. Interestingly, roughly similar rates can be arrived at with productive hardwood stands; TCC’s inventory data indicates total biomass tons of well-stocked cottonwood, birch, or aspen stands to be in a somewhat lower range (~20-50 tons/acre), with lower stand ages to be expected to produce those volumes (~50-80 years). Based on this, a value of 0.5 tons/acre/year is assumed as an optimum mean annual growth rate. Optimal rotation length is assumed to be 50 years, based on a hypothetical rotation length for the deciduous broadleaf tree species (birch, aspen, and balsam poplar). Although white spruce has traditionally been the favored species for timber management in interior Alaska, it is assumed that managing for hardwoods is desirable from a woody biomass perspective because of faster juvenile growth rates, shorter rotations, ease in regenerating, importance in wildlife habitat, and desirability from a community wildfire protection perspective. Several key assumptions were made to facilitate adjusting the optimum growth and rotation figures based on the availability of existing information. The assumptions used in this analysis to estimate growth and rotation include: 1. Relatively mature stands will show less current increment (growth). 2. Fully stocked stands will show best realization of potential increment. 3. Lower site quality will result in longer rotations and slower growth. Implementing the first assumption relies on coming up with a method of determining maturity for a forest stand. Maturity is an attribute that would be a function of stand age which, since it is lacking in the available data, can only be arrived at for a stand indirectly through interpretation of the other cover type attributes of species, size class, and density. All cover types in the project were assigned a maturity code from 0 to 4 using the above guidelines in a VERY subjective way (Table 4), with 1 indicating young stands in early stages of development, ranging up to 4, assigned to stands interpreted to be mature or possibly decadent stands in a late development stage. All stands that had been burned in recent fires (since 2002) were assigned a maturity of “1”. Each of the 4 maturity codes were assigned a relative growth rate expressed as a proportion of optimum mean annual increment; these proportions could be greater than 1.0 for those ages (maturity level) where growth may be greater, and less for those ages where growth may be less, such as early in the establishment of a stand or in an older decadent stand. The optimum growth proportions assigned to each maturity level were: Maturity Growth proportion 1 0.3 2 1.2 3 1.2 4 0.5 Maturity Code Cover Types 0 B, Ba, Cu, DM, DS, DS/W,DSw, R, TS, TS/W, TSw, W, WM 1 BrBSD, BrHWP3, BrWSP/HWP3, BSD, BSD/B, BSD/DS, BSD/HWD, BSD/TS, CWR, HWD, HWD/BSD, HWD/DS, HWD/TS, HWR, WSR, WSR/CWR 2 BSP/HWP1, BSP/HWP2, BSP1, BSP1/DS, BSP1/TS, BSP2, BSP2/DS, BSP2/TS, CWP1/TS, CWP2, CWP2/TS, CWS1/TS, CWS2, HWP/BSP1, HWP1, HWP1/BSD, HWP1/TS, WSP/CWP2, WSP/HWP1, WSP/HWP2, WSP1, WSP1/TS, WSP2, WSP2/TS, WSS/HWP1, WSS1/TS 3 BSP/HWP3, BSP3, CWP3, CWS3, HWP/BSP2, HWP/BSP3, HWP/WSP2, HWP2, HWP2/BSD, HWP2/DS, HWP2/TS, WSP/CWP3, WSP/HWP3, WSP3, WSS/CWP2, WSS/CWS2, WSS/HWP2, WSS2, WSS2/TS, HWP/WSP3, HWP3, HWP3/BSD, WSS/CWP3, WSS/CWS3, WSS/HWP3, WSS3 4 HWP/WSP3, HWP3, HWP3/BSD, WSS/CWP3, WSS/CWS3, WSS/HWP3, WSS3 Table 4. Maturity codes assigned to Cover Types. The second assumption of stand stocking levels influencing relative growth can be dealt with more directly using the stand density component of the cover type calls. Each of the 3 density codes were assigned a relative growth rate expressed as a proportion of optimum growth in the same manner as the maturity codes: Stand Density Growth Proportion 1 (0-30% crown closure) 0.3 2 (30-60% crown closure) 0.6 3 (60-100% crown closure) 1.0 Similarly, the third assumption of relative growth varying by site quality is handled by taking the site class codes as assigned to areas on the landscape and adjusting the optimal rotation of 50 years upwards for poorer site classes, as well as assigning degraded growth proportions for lower sites: Site Class Growth proportion Rotation (years) 0 0 none 1 0.3 90 2 0.6 70 3 1.0 50 Using this approach, annual allowable cut will be seriously degraded for those areas interpreted to be of poor site quality, by calculating a lower current growth and by using a longer rotation in the AAC formula. By applying a series of update queries in the database, allowable cut figures were calculated for every stand in the project area. Growth for each individual stand is determined by multiplying the optimum growth rate (0.5 tons/acre/year) by the growth proportion number assigned to the maturity code associated with that stand, and multiplied again by the growth proportion number assigned to the stand density of the stand, and multiplied again McGrath Biomass Resource Assessment 20 McGrath Biomass Resource Assessment 21 by the growth proportion assigned to the site class of the stand. Rotation length for each stand is determined by applying the rotation length assigned to the site class of the stand. The resulting figures for growth and rotation are used with the stocking of each stand in the Hanzlik formula to generate an AAC for each stand. The resulting AAC figures for each stand are not meant to mean that some calculated portion of every stand is a portion of the volume cut in any given time frame, but refers to the contribution that the resource represented by that stand contributes to the harvestable volume of biomass over the project as a whole. Through the other attributes assigned to each stand by creating the intersected layer, both standing stock and AAC figures can be broken out by ownership, management option, proximity to the village, or other stand attributes. Cost modeling In addition to estimates of the amount and growth of the woody biomass resource, it is also useful to estimate the costs involved in making the biomass available to an energy facility. This estimation could include the modeling of costs associated with harvesting, transport, reforestation, stumpage, and other costs. At this stage of the project, much is unclear in terms of type of harvest and equipment to be used, the nature and extent of the transportation network to be established and other cost factors, but all of these factors can be modeled in the GIS and reported back from the database. Table 5 presents a list of cost factors used in this analysis as an example of how these costs could be modeled. Per acre costs are converted into costs per ton for each polygon. Per acre cost parameters such as harvest costs per acre and reforestation costs per acre have the effect of driving up relative costs/ton of woody biomass for low volume stands. Estimated transportation costs were driven by distances from the village, distances from the nearest road, and road distances, which were calculated and stored for each stand in the intersection layer. Each type of distance had a cost/ton/mile assigned to it (Table 5). A series of queries is executed in the database to calculate a total cost/ton for each stand in the intersection layer: • Stands with a distance to the village (village proximity) less than a distance to the nearest road (road proximity) use the village proximity distance to calculate costs: o If a stand is located in a winter-only access area, then the winter off- road cost parameter is multiplied by the village proximity to get a transportation cost per ton. o If stand is located in an all-season access area, then the all-season off-road cost parameter is multiplied by the village proximity to get a transportation cost. • Stands that are closer to the nearest road than they are to the village use the road proximity and road distance values to calculate costs: o If a stand is located in a winter-only access area, then the winter off- road cost parameter is multiplied by the road proximity and added to the product of the road distance and the all-season road cost parameter to get a transportation cost per ton. o If a stand is located in an all-season access area, then the all-season off-road cost parameter is multiplied by the road proximity and added to the product of the road distance and the all-season road cost parameter to get a transportation cost per ton. Cost Type Cost Stumpage (payments to owner), cost per ton $ 5 Harvest Costs Costs per acre $200 Costs per ton of woody biomass $ 10 Transportation costs Cost/ton/mile all-season road $ 2 Cost/ton/mile all-season off-road $ 4 Cost/ton/mile winter off-road $ 4 Cost/ton ice bridging costs $ 5 Reforestation – cost per acre $100 Table 5. Cost parameters used in the analysis. In addition, those areas requiring winter road access across rivers and ice bridges are assigned an additional fixed amount per ton to accommodate that cost (Table 5). Harvest costs are broken into 2 components, cost/ton and cost/acre (Table 5). This is an attempt to recognize that some costs associated with harvesting will remain relatively fixed per ton, while other costs associated with mobilization, equipment movement, etc. may remain relatively fixed per unit area. Other costs associated with biomass supply could include reforestation costs and other management costs, and stumpage payments made to a landowner. The reforestation costs initially used in this analysis are based on a lowering of known planting costs, assuming that some level of natural regeneration or other techniques may be used. This cost modeling can be modified in the future with changes to the cost parameters, modification of the modeling used to assign costs, etc. to create updated cost scenarios. Since the cost/ton is determined by stand, as is the annual allowable cut, one interesting ramification of this is that it is possible to evaluate AAC based on different cost thresholds. McGrath Biomass Resource Assessment 22 McGrath Biomass Resource Assessment 23 ANALYSIS AND RESULTS Woody biomass green tonnage and AAC figures were summarized from the database by cover type, cover type class, ownership, management option, distance from the village, and cost threshold (Tables 6 through 15). It must be considered that any combination of these attributes can be queried from the database, and can also be displayed in the GIS to evaluate graphically the location of the resource. What is shown here is merely a sample of how the data may be summarized and displayed. Total standing stock of woody biomass for the extent of Phase 1 of the project is 390,909 green tons (Table 6, Figure 9). The bulk of that is on MTNT land (289,028 tons, 74%), followed by State land (67,538 tons, 17%), with less than 3% each on Doyon, Ltd. land, Native allotments, BLM land, and private lands (Table 8). The majority of the standing stock is found in mixed species poletimber cover types (43%) and hardwood poletimber types (30%) (Table 7). When broken out by species, 50% of the standing stock is birch and 41% is white spruce (Table 11). When the additional acreage from the McGrath forest inventory is added (Phase 1 and 2), total standing stock of woody biomass increases to 1,566,094 green tons (Table 6, Figure 10). The bulk of the stock is still in mixed species poletimber types (41%) and hardwood poletimber types (25%), but there is a higher proportion of stocking found in sawtimber types (15%) (Table 7). Despite this difference in sawtimber cover types between Phase 1 and 2, the amount of biomass in spruce sawtimber remained at about the same proportion (~8%), an important concern when considering that the highest value of the resource may be as dimension lumber when available (Tables 11, 12, 13). Of particular importance is the result that for Phase 1, 75% of the standing stock is in the “winter access – cross water” management designation, indicating additional costs and logistical concerns for accessing most of the biomass resources in the project area (Table 8). This proportion drops to 58% when considering Phase 1 and 2. Calculated Annual Allowable Cut (AAC) totals 10,800 tons per year for Phase 1, and 44,141 tons per year for Phase 1 and 2. There are a number of “reproduction” cover types that show no standing stock volume, but do contribute to the AAC figures. It is implied that the reproduction cover types do not currently have standing volume, or at least are not affiliated with timber-bearing strata in the inventory database, but do have growing stock in those stands that can be considered when estimating the growth potential of the project area. Almost 60% of the standing stock is greater than 6 miles from the village (Table 14). This is also reflected in the high proportion of the standing stock that has relatively high costs due to modeled transportation costs. For Phase 1 and 2, only 21% (329,376 tons) of the standing stock has estimated delivered costs less than $50/ton (Table 16). Not surprisingly, since Phase 1 focused on areas closer to the village, 72% of the standing stock in Phase 1 is estimated to be available for less than $50/ton (Table 15). Annual Allowable Cut is also calculated for these cost thresholds in an attempt to describe what the AAC might be if operations were limited by costs, although it is difficult to compare this across the board since the reproduction areas that contribute to AAC because of growth occurring on those sites do not have a standing stock of woody biomass that is possible to assign cost estimates to. McGrath Biomass Resource Assessment 24 Phase 1 Phase 2 Total Cover Type Acres GT GT AAC Acres GT GT AAC Acres GT GT AAC BrBSD 2,122 0 95 0 0 0 2,122 0 95 BrHWP/WSP3 315 0 47 0 0 0 315 0 47 BrHWP3 282 0 40 0 0 0 282 0 40 BrWSP/HWP3 6 0 1 0 0 0 6 0 1 BSD 5,275 0 237 32,930 0 1,482 38,205 0 1,719 BSD/B 0 0 0 162 0 7 162 0 7 BSD/DS 2,412 0 109 2,472 0 111 4,883 0 220 BSD/HWD 0 0 0 94 0 4 94 0 4 BSD/TS 729 0 33 3,582 0 161 4,312 0 194 BSP/HWP1 0 0 0 113 0 4 113 0 4 BSP/HWP2 130 1,254 28 137 871 27 267 2,125 55 BSP/HWP3 76 731 38 0 0 0 76 731 38 BSP1 2,357 22,703 380 21,471 113,220 2,362 23,828 135,923 2,742 BSP1/DS 93 900 15 0 0 0 93 900 15 BSP1/TS 2 23 0 24 235 6 27 257 6 BSP2 223 2,105 61 25 122 3 248 2,227 64 BSP2/DS 4 38 1 0 0 0 4 38 1 BSP2/TS 55 528 12 0 0 0 55 528 12 BSP3 53 446 13 0 0 0 53 446 13 CWP1/TS 0 0 0 89 0 10 89 0 10 CWP2 182 6,018 174 284 9,388 275 465 15,406 450 CWP2/TS 8 260 5 0 0 0 8 260 5 CWP3 27 903 29 33 1,105 42 61 2,008 71 CWR 0 0 0 65 0 6 65 0 6 CWS1/TS 289 9,576 244 454 15,026 354 743 24,602 597 CWS2 0 0 0 82 2,726 84 82 2,726 84 CWS3 0 0 0 141 4,674 178 141 4,674 178 HWD 0 0 0 1,172 0 53 1,172 0 53 HWD/BSD 0 0 0 810 0 36 810 0 36 HWD/DS 0 0 0 245 0 11 245 0 11 HWD/TS 0 0 0 1,949 0 88 1,949 0 88 HWP/BSP1 94 2,437 36 2,274 30,719 508 2,368 33,156 544 HWP/BSP2 295 7,650 145 213 3,221 63 508 10,871 208 HWP/BSP3 44 1,130 32 0 0 0 44 1,130 32 HWP/WSP2 482 15,731 332 481 13,841 329 962 29,572 661 HWP/WSP3 1,307 42,373 1,095 2,483 92,901 2,331 3,790 135,275 3,426 HWP1 48 1,259 22 9 121 2 57 1,380 24 HWP1/BSD 230 5,955 79 1,018 25,879 474 1,247 31,834 553 HWP1/TS 19 495 7 720 18,849 347 739 19,344 354 HWP2 708 18,524 501 1,035 26,408 646 1,743 44,932 1,147 HWP2/BSD 170 4,461 73 0 0 0 170 4,461 73 HWP2/DS 5 128 2 0 0 0 5 128 2 HWP2/TS 7 190 3 0 0 0 7 190 3 HWP3 1,821 85,973 2,105 4,388 209,608 5,163 6,209 295,582 7,268 HWP3/BSD 67 3,267 50 0 0 0 67 3,267 50 HWR 90 0 12 970 0 87 1,060 0 98 WSP/CWP2 85 2,789 81 429 14,014 343 515 16,803 423 WSP/CWP3 213 6,960 267 26 836 32 239 7,795 299 WSP/HWP1 22 630 11 0 0 0 22 630 11 WSP/HWP2 1,471 42,247 1,011 4,226 120,577 3,338 5,696 162,824 4,349 WSP/HWP3 1,610 61,525 2,168 6,429 246,281 8,581 8,038 307,806 10,749 WSP1 15 355 5 0 0 0 15 355 5 WSP1/TS 105 2,016 33 0 0 0 105 2,016 33 WSP2 293 7,053 210 642 15,488 482 935 22,540 692 WSP2/TS 8 193 4 0 0 0 8 193 4 WSP3 53 1,525 52 321 9,142 375 374 10,668 427 WSR 0 0 0 16 0 2 16 0 2 WSR/CWR 0 0 0 17 0 2 17 0 2 WSS/CWP2 40 1,302 40 183 5,965 185 223 7,267 225 WSS/CWP3 248 8,086 224 10 316 9 257 8,402 232 WSS/CWS2 106 3,454 107 47 1,519 47 152 4,973 154 WSS/CWS3 11 358 10 40 1,319 36 51 1,676 46 WSS/HWP1 49 1,605 41 0 0 0 49 1,605 41 WSS/HWP2 285 9,309 289 235 7,663 187 520 16,973 476 WSS/HWP3 0 0 0 1,972 98,002 2,423 1,972 98,002 2,423 WSS1/TS 0 0 0 388 11,882 224 388 11,882 224 WSS2 178 5,629 175 588 18,564 499 766 24,193 674 WSS2/TS 2 54 2 0 0 0 2 54 2 WSS3 13 763 18 904 54,704 1,320 917 55,467 1,338 Totals: 24,832 390,909 10,800 96,396 1,175,185 33,342 121,229 1,566,094 44,142 Table 6. Woody biomass green tonnage (GT) and Annual Allowable Cut (AAC) by cover type. Figure 9. McGrath Phase 1 project area woody biomass tons/acre. McGrath Biomass Resource Assessment 25 Figure 10. McGrath Phase 1 and 2 project area woody biomass tons/acre. McGrath Biomass Resource Assessment 26 Phase 1 Phase 2 Total Cover Class Acres GT GT AAC Acres GT GT AAC Acres GT GT AAC Barren/ cultural 718 0 0 503 0 0 1,221 0 0 Black spruce poletimber 2,765 26,636 480 2,062 19,865 507 4,828 46,502 986 Black spruce woodland 8,228 0 370 30,049 0 1,352 38,277 0 1,722 Burned 3,923 20,957 737 33,763 155,167 3,519 37,686 176,124 4,256 Cottonwood poletimber 217 7,181 208 406 10,493 327 623 17,674 535 Cottonwood sawtimber 289 9,576 244 678 22,426 616 967 32,002 860 Hardwood poletimber 2,936 116,843 2,753 6,835 273,822 6,480 9,771 390,664 9,232 Hardwood woodland 0 0 0 3,366 0 152 3,366 0 152 Mixed poletimber 5,081 168,679 4,798 13,223 470,110 14,499 18,304 638,789 19,296 Mixed sawtimber 738 24,114 711 2,447 113,810 2,862 3,186 137,924 3,573 Mixed woodland 0 0 0 895 0 40 895 0 40 Reproductio n 90 0 12 1,049 0 96 1,138 0 108 Shrubland 2,478 0 0 10,167 0 0 12,645 0 0 Water 3,587 0 0 9,762 0 0 13,348 0 0 Wetland 4,540 0 0 11,869 0 0 16,410 0 0 White spruce poletimber 420 10,477 293 946 24,434 852 1,366 34,911 1,145 White spruce sawtimber 193 6,446 195 1,876 85,060 2,040 2,069 91,505 2,235 Totals: 36,203 390,909 10,800 129,896 1,175,185 33,342 166,099 1,566,094 44,142 Table 7. Woody biomass tonnage and Annual Allowable Cut (AAC) by cover type class. McGrath Biomass Resource Assessment 27 Standing Green Ownership Management Acres Green Tons Tons AAC ANCSA Regional Corp. Riparian buffer 15 167 3 Winter access - cross water 1,356 10,664 249 ANCSA Regional Corp. Totals: 1,371 10,831 252 ANCSA Village Corp. All-season access 609 6,875 197 HFR 259 4,902 110 Riparian buffer 488 5,883 166 Village - Mid 813 14,908 306 Village - Near 262 5,571 138 Village Core 922 12,476 316 Winter access 2,549 41,461 995 Winter access - cross water 16,889 196,952 5,937 ANCSA Village Corp. Totals: 22,791 289,028 8,165 BLM Riparian buffer 155 3,544 78 Winter access - cross water 3,110 6,909 209 BLM Totals: 3,266 10,453 287 Native Allotment All-season access 138 2,362 63 HFR 22 233 8 Riparian buffer 8 79 2 Winter access - cross water 308 6,087 153 Native Allotment Totals: 475 8,762 226 Private Winter access - cross water 170 4,297 110 Private Totals: 170 4,297 110 State of Alaska Riparian buffer 67 693 19 Winter access - cross water 8,063 66,846 1,741 State of Alaska Totals: 8,129 67,538 1,760 Phase 1 Totals: 36,203 390,909 10,800 Table 8. Woody biomass tonnage and Annual Allowable Cut (AAC) by ownership and management, Phase 1. McGrath Biomass Resource Assessment 28 Standing Green Ownership Management Acres Green Tons Tons AAC ANCSA Village Corp. All-season access 22,691 141,259 3,085 Riparian buffer 1,095 17,795 509 Winter access 27,654 317,204 9,118 Winter access - cross water 43,568 430,993 13,358 ANCSA Village Corp. Totals: 95,008 907,251 26,071 BLM All-season access 7,564 36,724 812 Riparian buffer 159 3,728 102 Winter access 2,628 31,331 865 Winter access - cross water 23,210 173,088 4,914 BLM Totals: 33,562 244,871 6,693 Native Allotment All-season access 422 7,187 138 Riparian buffer 39 685 22 Winter access 176 1,413 38 Winter access - cross water 689 13,778 380 Native Allotment Totals: 1,325 23,063 578 State of Alaska Winter access - cross water 1 0 0 State of Alaska Totals: 1 0 0 Phase 2 Totals: 129,896 1,175,185 33,342 Table 9. Woody biomass tonnage and Annual Allowable Cut (AAC) by ownership and management, Phase 2. McGrath Biomass Resource Assessment 29 Standing Green Ownership Management Acres Green Tons Tons AAC ANCSA Regional Corp. Riparian buffer 15 167 3 Winter access - cross water 1,356 10,664 249 ANCSA Regional Corp. Totals: 1,371 10,831 252 ANCSA Village Corp. All-season access 23,300 148,134 3,282 HFR 259 4,902 110 Riparian buffer 1,582 23,677 676 Village - Mid 813 14,908 306 Village - Near 262 5,571 138 Village Core 922 12,476 316 Winter access 30,204 358,665 10,113 Winter access - cross water 60,457 627,945 19,295 ANCSA Village Corp. Totals: 117,799 1,196,279 34,236 BLM All-season access 7,564 36,724 812 Riparian buffer 315 7,272 180 Winter access 2,628 31,331 865 Winter access - cross water 26,320 179,997 5,123 BLM Totals: 36,828 255,325 6,980 Native Allotment All-season access 559 9,549 201 HFR 22 233 8 Riparian buffer 46 765 24 Winter access 176 1,413 38 Winter access - cross water 997 19,865 533 Native Allotment Totals: 1,800 31,825 804 Private Winter access - cross water 170 4,297 110 Private Totals: 170 4,297 110 State of Alaska Riparian buffer 67 693 19 Winter access - cross water 8,064 66,846 1,741 State of Alaska Totals: 8,130 67,538 1,760 Phase 1 and 2 Totals: 166,099 1,566,094 44,142 Table 10. Woody biomass tonnage and Annual Allowable Cut (AAC) by ownership and management, Phases 1 and 2. McGrath Biomass Resource Assessment 30 Sawtimber Board Foot Species Total Green Tons Green Tons White Spruce 160,779 33,126 Black Spruce 28,420 Birch 194,918 Aspen 5,738 Balsam Poplar 22,011 Totals: 390,909 33,126 Table 11. Woody biomass tonnage by species, Phase 1. Sawtimber Board Foot Species Total Green Tons Green Tons White Spruce 527,625 107,631 Black Spruce 196,615 Birch 536,328 Aspen 23,282 Balsam Poplar 46,503 Totals: 1,175,185 107,631 Table 12. Woody biomass tonnage by species, Phase 2. Sawtimber Board Foot Species Total Green Tons Green Tons White Spruce 688,404 140,757 Black Spruce 225,035 Birch 731,246 Aspen 29,020 Balsam Poplar 68,514 Totals: 1,566,094 140,757 Table 13. Woody biomass tonnage by species Phase 1 and 2. McGrath Biomass Resource Assessment 31 Standing Green Tons Distance from Boiler Site Acres Green Tons AAC 0-2 miles 4,030 84,355 2,294 2-4 miles 16,522 230,899 6,511 4-6 miles 18,332 291,711 9,253 6-8 miles 30,208 263,212 6,894 8-10 miles 22,461 205,441 5,735 10-12 miles 15,423 225,273 6,301 12-14 miles 7,616 125,398 3,473 14-16 miles 5,635 120,341 3,156 16-18 miles 1,002 19,463 523 Totals: 121,229 1,566,094 44,142 Table 14. Woody biomass tonnage and Annual Allowable Cut (AAC) by distance from boiler site. Total Green Tons Total Cost per Ton Available AAC Available < $30 16,046 401 < $40 104,944 2,758 < $50 272,029 7,454 < $60 345,876 9,190 < $70 370,713 9,763 < $80 380,438 9,960 < $90 380,438 9,960 < $100 380,438 9,960 < $125 380,543 9,962 Table 15. Woody biomass tonnage and Annual Allowable Cut (AAC) by cost threshold, Phase 1. Total Green Tons Total Cost per Ton Available AAC Available < $30 16,046 401 < $40 108,051 2,836 < $50 329,376 9,207 < $60 582,115 16,478 < $70 812,544 22,596 < $80 938,879 25,840 < $90 1,091,510 29,847 < $100 1,235,605 33,543 < $125 1,518,407 40,250 < $150 1,533,520 40,614 Table 16. Woody biomass tonnage and Annual Allowable Cut (AAC) by cost threshold, Phase 1 and 2. McGrath Biomass Resource Assessment 32 Figure 11. McGrath project area woody biomass cost of harvest, transport, and management, Phase 1. McGrath Biomass Resource Assessment 33 Figure 12. McGrath project area woody biomass cost of harvest, transport, and management, Phase 1 and 2. McGrath Biomass Resource Assessment 34 McGrath Biomass Resource Assessment 35 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Many thanks are owed to the staff at the Fairbanks Area Office of the State of Alaska Division of Forestry, especially Doug Hanson for repeated conversations and consultations, and Dan LaBarre for the eCognition classification work. Fabian Keirn, TCC Forester, did the manual cover type classification refinement work. Many thanks to Tilly Dull, Tribal Administrator, and the McGrath Native Village Council, for support of this project. And, thanks to the Alaska Energy Authority and its representatives for supporting funding for this work and for promoting the development of alternative renewable energy in rural Alaska.