HomeMy WebLinkAboutWEATS Modeling Feasibility Studies Hybrid Power Systems 08-2007Modeling & Feasibility StudiesJames JensenAlaska Energy AuthorityWEATSAug 2007
Modeling of Hybrid Power Systems•Electric load•Thermal load•Renewable resource•Diesel generators•Energy storage•Economics
Modeling ToolsGarbage In = Garbage OutINPUTOUTPUTFANCY COMPUTER MODEL
Modeling Inputs•Wind Resource•Electric Load•Thermal Load•Potential Load Growth•Economics
Wind ResourcePower = ½ x air density x swept area x WIND SPEED x WIND SPEED x WIND SPEED
Wind Resource•AEA’s Anemometer Loan Program•Wind Resource Map•Airport Weather Stations
Village Electric Load•Take direct measurements•Estimate based on historical data in other villagesJanuaryJuly
AK Village Electric Load Calculator
Village Thermal Load•Space Heat•Hot Water
Village Thermal Load•Estimate based on energy audit information and average temperatures•Take direct measurements
Economics•Capital cost of wind turbines and related equipment•Installation cost•Annual O&M costs•Inflation Rate•Cost of diesel fuel
Factors that Can’t be Modeled•Land Use•FAA•Avian Issues•Geotechnical Issues•Noise and Visual Impact•Community Acceptance
Feasibility Study Example•Port Heiden, AK
The Computer Model•HOMER is available FREE at www.nrel.gov/homer•Developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory•Other Models (Hybrid2 and RETScreen)
Wind Turbines in Port Heiden
Diesel Generators in Port Heiden
Wind Resource in Port Heiden
Thermal Load in Port Heiden
Dump Load in Port Heiden
Electric Load in Port Heiden
Economics of Port Heiden System
Generator Control
Uses for HOMER•Optimization- least cost solution•Simulation- simulate time step by time step operation for the entire year•Sensitivity Analysis- what if….?
Optimization for Port HeidenRanked by lowest Total Net Present Cost
Simulation for Port HeidenWind+ Diesel Diesel OnlyWind OnlyVillage Electric Load
Sensitivity Analysis
HOMER is Versatile•Quick analysis based on rough estimates- Annual averages for resources and loads- Cost per kW or unit for equipment•Detailed analysis for project feasibility-measured data at hourly or shorter time steps- accurate price quotes and cost curves•But never for design
HOMER Limitations•Load Growth•Diesel Price Fluctuations•Turbine Availability•Solution: Additional spreadsheet analysis