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Energy Price Indices & Discount Factors 1995 US Dept of Comm Oct 1994
NISTIR 85-3273-9 (Rev.10/94) Energy Price Indices and Discount Factors for Life-Cycle Cost Analysis 1995 Annual Supplement to Stephen R.Petersen NIST Handbook 135 and NBS Special Publication 709 cCEIV | APR 12 1995 OF ENERu: U.S.DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Technology Administration National Institute of Standards and Technology Prepared for United States Department of Energy Federal Energy Management Program October 1994 NISTIR 85-3273-9 (Revised 10/94) ENERGY PRICE INDICES AND DISCOUNT FACTORS FOR LIFE-CYCLE COST ANALYSIS 1995 Annual Supplement to NIST Handbook 135 and NBS Special Publication 709 Data for the Federal Methodology for Life-Cycle Cost Analysis,Title 10,CFR,Part 436,Subpart A; and for the Energy Conservation Mandatory Performance Standards for New Federal Residential Buildings,Title 10,CFR,Part 435 Stephen R.Petersen Computing and Applied Mathematics Laboratory Office of Applied Economics Gaithersburg,MD 20899 October 1994 Prepared for: U.S.Department of Energy Office of the Assistant Secretary for Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Federal Energy Management Program Washington,DC 20585 U.S.DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE,Ronald H.Brown,Secretary Techonology Administration,Mary L.Good,Under Secretary for Technology National Institute of Standards and Technology,Arati Prabhakar,Director fo] Ww Co eo oe ee ee Be ci + ct wn Uo re A ee eee Be | Cs + a5 av {PO} Weats Co ee eB ee eo ee oe ee ee l6°¢ 606 98°¢ c8'8 9L°¢ 61'8 99°¢ 19° £52 90°Z Bre 95°9 6E°¢ 019 0e'¢ 99°S coe 92'S tl¢ 681 90°¢ v5 66'T ce 26T c6'£ S81 poe BLT eee el1 ble L9°T cb¢ coT OL'2 41 Lv'¢ Is'T 622 9v'T clé lv'T S61 Ze'T 18°T evT 89'T 921 9ST eT 9°T LTT Le'T elt 821 OTT BIT SOT 60°T ae 49 de'€N n AoARAAMINNNNNNOD a3 av seg jeunqen Ee Be Be oe oe ee Boe ee Bee 10't S2'el 466 8b'L 09'S Ze'0T 084 S8°S Be'F ese 6T'cl92'6 cO'L OES €96 TeZLSS6 L9°€ €2tf19'8 65°9 €0°S v6'8 S8°9 beS 00°F 0S'¢ ve0T10'8 8T9 9L'P 0€°8 ch996'b CBC Ste 1S°6 teZ08°S I9'p O22 c09 69°F G9°C 0c'€ 9/°8 169 HSLe'ST 09'S thb6r'e 90'€ 908 cv9ITS SOF v9'9 62'S 02bCEC c62 cyd 46'S 646 EB 919 96% 868 BIE 08°2 €8°9 SSS 6hbC9'€ cLS 9b SLE FOE L£9°¢ 62:9 91'S ¢cb tbe Te'S Sep 99 T6¢ 95'¢ 64'S 64'b 968 92 C6 807 LEE Ble brie e's Seb IZ 60'€ 8Syc8e GTS G92 ve? l6'¢ viv 8r'e c6°2 Gc'v 65'S COE bS°2 €2'¢ cSbvS8'e fee LL? GSb'€ 96°C 98? che tl'¢ STvy(5 LOE £9°¢ 99€STE OL'e TE? b0'¢ CBee COE BBC bh? Ove S62 99°2 Te? S61 o9'€ STE 92% Ibe ST 92'¢ Ive Ile 98°T ge'€ l6¢ 29'¢ Te? I6'¢ £9¢lee 00¢ S21 SOE cle Che 912 69'¢ Ove bie O6T £91 6Z'¢ IS'¢ 92'¢ £02 6v'c bee cO¢e I8'T 6ST LS'¢ vee ele €6'l dec Oe O6'T ELT IST 9¢°¢ LT? 661 C8'T eld S6T 621 H9'T tet ST'¢ 661 v8'T TZ'T S61 O08'T"49°TSST BET pv6'T I8T O41 69°T 84T49T9ST Sb'T ce1 9Z'T 99'T"ST8b'T €9'T vSt ShIZe'T ée'1 09'T eSTSbT 8e'T 6v'ITevTtS€T 621 cel 4pTtIvI96'T Te'T Zot ¢c€l det eet d1'T vet T€'T"Ze.€2'T 9¢T c2T 6IT SIT clTt col O¢TLIT STI 9TT eTIITT 60'T 90°T ITT OLT60°T 80°T ZOT 90°T SOT POT ae a9 BSE 49 BG OE LtO LenpLsey LEO 8deL{L4siqWIDYSWWOD (00°T = S661 vee,$0 GulLuulbag) S9DLPU] BDLdq Lanj sea\-JO-puz paydeloug "OBeUAAY $9}E1S$ pazLun 'adk} [anj pue 40JDas asn-pua Aq 'uaduad gpue 'sg'yp'¢ Jo S9}O4 UOLJL[JUL BdLud Leusuab pauinsse YILM SadLpuL adLud Lan} pazdafoug'T'T'T'T9Le¢ LE? £02 LT 09°¢ S¢c S6T 69'T bec tie £81 9T 82'¢ c0¢ BLT LST ete 06T OLTIST 00'c O8T COT 9bT 88T T/T SGT Iv ZL'T €9'T 6hTLET 99°T tSTEvtcet 9ST 9bTSET Le'T ovTBET OFT Eel geTOfTpet 8STT82TecIlBTITvitOcIZTIT€TT Ol eTTtITT 60T OT 90°T SOT POT €OT a9 4G oh RE A41914998[3 'panutquod *g-S alqel t20¢€2022002Te0e020261028102L1029102S102yl0e€T0¢cl0ZTL0¢010260028002£0029002S002v00c€002C0021002000266618661L6619661S661Jea 47 byend-usesectorandfueltype.Projectedfuelpriceindiceswithassumedgeneralpriceinflationratesof3,4,5,and6percent,TableS-5.UnitedStatesAverage(BeginningofYear1995=1.00)RESIDENTIALProjectedEnd-of-YearFuelPriceIndicesDistillate0i1NaturalGasLPGElectricityFL OVO OLD STO DWM MAAN ANMO DOM MMO OMmM COWOUDWAWOODANIMTMOMDOANTODONTMOMODOMNWOAONIC A ttt NNN OOD OO TT LOLOL WO LOE OO FEEL MOP UOMO WMO DMA AM NADHM OM ODO NODATOWMMLODANCIMATOWRMDOAMYMTOMDAMDMIDWOWMODAWAAO tt INI NINI NI NI 09 09 09 OD SH OS ST TL IND OW FW YD AMO MDM Gas TOM OMOTONDHEMMOWMOODAMSTFOMANAMNYMTMOOMDADNOANTOWDHAAANT?TWODONWMMm O Se I NINN NNN NN OOOO Oss FOWMOAOON DO GAMIONOOMMMATATMOOrMOMWOOTMWMMODAANNMYMTTOOMODNHNOANMTNOWOMAOAMOTOM tsASINNNNQINANIALO09090909OD sero Ss TWOP,OTHMONNANMNDUMONAODPMSOOBWOMNDOWWODANMTOMWDHAMMOMAHAAMNMONAMNOOANWOOWMWOMOroD Set St INN NN O99 OO Ot TD 0 KO OCOD RWONDHDADAAMNNOATOOMVMADANMODWMYANTM,MOATWOANNOAWMOMOMOATLOMHAMMDAIDatONOO tt tS INN NIN GI 09 09 09 OO OO SS AT TL UNO WOO. ROMANO HDDODODONVNTMOSODTOMWMDMOTMOWMAT®SOMrIN MST TMOOPM DOAN IMWOM DANS WODOONMMm ON St INI NN NNN OOOO St tL RAD AOMONVTDOTAMOrOMtTTTTONDAAONVNENOWMYDODANNAMOTOWWOMWMDNHDOANMDWWMDOOTOMA i i st tI NINN NI EIA EA 09 09 09 09 0909-03 SOM UIST ST TE.OTDM AOMODHVNWOAAAAMOVATOHMmDWWWOAINMTUOMONDAMTODOMNMNDOMIMOTFDAWAOND SSSANNNOOOSSAOLEEOO RLWON ODN DWAODAMODWDNOAIWMN VDAINIMWOWOMIN OO OM OOMOOANNOTOM™MWONOAMINWDWONDTWDMADUONNWANWO IRINNNNN09090909O89SSOSTSTILLWWOO RHWMOOMAADNDWMDAORP-DWDHONWMOMAMNOCUONNAOMAOHDAMOTONAANMYMTTMOOPMDHONIOMTWOMDOAMNTODOINWMM™O SIMONNNNNNNOOOOSt RTO THAMNMAUDOPTVNOOTMNANROMEMODONTMeODTASTMODAANMMTAMNOOMODHOOHAAYMTMNOOADAHDOAYMTWHOM OT ION NIN NIN NINE 099 09 OD 09.09 TMUON AOMAN TRAM UOTOIMTOCOATMIMAMMWMDOrWOANMAMWMOMANFUODONTMHMANMDAAMNHOOMAM St IAIN NNN NA OMOMOMODT AT TOMMO WOO ME BW MNHDOFTNMIONAHAOMMRAODONHAOMOOMOBAAINAVNSWOAANOMTWOWRMHDOAMTAOMNONTOMMMOANIONGC tt Se SONNY NINN 9 09 O09 OO OD SS ST LOL ROA GAMTHADWMOVMAAAAIYMTODHATOMNWDWDNONDCOAODTOASMNNMTTFOWOMDNHNOANMTAMOKRMODANTOODHAY NtttttINNNIONINNINNNN0909909090909SOS FET ONW SRNR NOTION TAHMOYMN TRA ONRAN TO}MOOHATANAWNOIMYMATTMOWOOPMDANHOANMTMOWMONOAN htttSIINNINNNINN9090 LOWMOANODAMTANONRDHOANMANUOMOANOANMYOTBADAOGHDOVDVOOOCCOCOSnAAAseSANNAVADADHDDOODDODDOSCOTOCOVCOCOCOCVOCOOO0O°OAttANNANANIONONIONONIONONOOOO FOREWORD Please note that Federal Methodology for Life-Cycle Cost Analysis,Title 10,CFR,Part 436, Subpart A was revised in November 1990 to incorporate changes required by the Federal Energy Management Improvement Act of 1988 (P.L.100-615),and to reflect 10-years experience with the Federal LCC Rule. The principal change resulted in the FEMP discount rate being set annually by DOE.The FEMP discount rate for 1995 is 3.0%real (i.e.,net of general price inflation),and 6.6%nominal (inlcuding inflation).The FEMP discount rate is based on long-term Treasury bond rates averaged over the previous 12 months.This market rate is converted to a real rate using the assumed rate of general price inflation (4.0%)in the Economic Report of the President's Council of Economic Advisors,to correspond with the constant-dollar analysis approach that is used.This procedure would result in a real discount rate for 1995 lower than the 3.0%floor prescribed in 10 CFR 436.Thus the 3.0% floor is used as the real discount rate for FEMP economic analysis in 1995.(For further discussion of changes in the Federal life-cycle costing rule see Notice of Final Rulemaking,Federal Register, November 20,1990,Vol.55,No.224.) This Annual Supplement uses the term "present value"instead of "present worth”for the discount factors presented.The meaning of these two terms is considered to be identical for purposes of economic analysis.This change in terminology was made to be consistent with the terms used in the American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM)compilation of standards on building economics (ASTM_Standards on Building Economics,Third Edition,ASTM,Philadelphia,PA, 1994.) The SPV,UPV,and UPV'factors in Part I of this report are given both for the FEMP discount rate and for the OMB Circular A-94 discount rates.The former are for evaluating Federal energy conservation and renewable energy projects.The latter are for evaluating Federal projects subject to OMB Circular A-94,i.e.,most Federal capital investment projects,other than energy projects and water-resources projects. It should be noted that OMB Circular A-94 on guidelines and discount rates for benefit-cost analysis of federal programs was extensively revised in October 1992.There is no longer a single OMB discount rate as in the past.OMB has specified two basic types of discount rates:(1)a discount rate for cost-effectiveness,lease-purchase,and related analyses;and (2)a discount rate for public investment and regulatory analyses.Only discount rates for the first type of analyses are included in this Annual Supplement,since the primary purpose of this report is to support cost-effectiveness studies related to the design and operation of federal facilities. Discount rates for cost-effectiveness and lease-purchase studies are based on interest rates on Treasury Notes and Bonds with maturities ranging from 3 to 30 years.Currently (as of February 1994)five maturities have been specifically identified by OMB,and are shown here with the corresponding real interest rate to be used as the discount rate for studies subject to OMB Circular A-94: ill 88°9 81'S 88" Sy9 06hTL'709 €9'p SS" 99°S Br BE" 0€°S ply €2° 96°7 T6' 80° s9'y ILE6 98° TSE 28° 80'y 22° 69° 2g ete 95° gS'€ 16°2 Sb 98°€ 18°2 pe SI'€ $9°2 €2 S6°2 152 €1 ll'2 82V0 09°2 S22 S6 er'2 €1'2Z 98 96°2 60°2 $8 0€°2 90°2 €8 10'2 £8'T 89 68'T 221 95 6L:1 y9'T TS 99° 9ST tb LIST lpt Ze 8r'I Obl2 Oy'l vE'T L2 Tel 92°L I2 IZ'T 8tt St pl'l 2U'T OT 40°T 90°T SO 4 8S)[eoD weeds S OoStSSINbe Beaiecnalseg}nnlna]aeShenwlAAESalaSTBe3= €T6'¢ 69°6 62°24 L¥S 60'b 89€T62OT224 BL'S 26°01 S¢°8 619 €9'b €18'¢ 00°6 89 81'S T6¢ 6Scl49:6 SéL Bhs olOLpZ'c 98S fhb €OL'2 9¢°8 IV'9 06'b ble 6SIT68°8 08°9 61'S Sv'6 S¢L SSS fev €19°¢ ZL-L 109 9b BSE £9°0T 92°8 889 T6'b 418 62:9 2S b0'b €(Se Ie'4 99S OVbeb'c8'6 L49L 865 99'P ST'8 26°9 46% 98¢ €eve 04:9 6259 9Tb Lee p06 etd 19°S Tbh 4GL 169 O04769'€ @be? €c'9 967 POE ETE cl'8 £99 l2'5 Bb cOL 699 Sbb eSe &Ge? B25 SOF CLE 66°2 49°24 919 S6'b 96° 699 G¢S [27 LEE éLlé LOS 9p EGE 982 90°2 EL9 9b GLE 90°9 ¢c6b 866 22et c60¢ 66'v 607 PEE EL? 6b'9 chSSEP SCE c9S 19'b"Lf°eBOE &c0'¢ cob C8 STE 19°% 465 tev 800 IEE c6G clbpL4GEv6e éS6'T 0€'v 65 OOE bre 05'S 097EBC 6I'E S8b SO LEE I8'¢'@881 00'y LEE v8? BE? 40S l@v 09'€ cde 0Syb62€6T&89'¢'¢81 TZ'€ 9T€ 69°C B2'¢ 99'b l6€ LEE 98°¢ LlbvSGe cOe 99°¢'¢GLI Sve 462 Se BI? 6é'v 69'€ LTETL'?88g CEE 982 She'T69TOc€L£'e Obec80°2 vee che 962 9G9'¢ 6S€IT 69'2 bee'T¢9o'T 86'¢ 19°¢ 822 66'T o9€ LTE LLe cv? oe€68¢ES¢lee'TCOT 8L¢ She fT2I6'T coe ve? 69°2 6c'% poe 692 LE? 602'T€9'T 959°¢ 62¢vO? CBT soe €£¢ foe 912 6L¢ 6h2cfeB61'TIST 96°¢@ ETC C61 elT O8'¢ ¢eS2 lee v0? 99°¢ Te? 802 LBT'Tevil 6.¢661 18'T $9'T 4S¢ bee cle C6T Ze'é ST¢ 96'T BLT'T8t'T c0'¢ 98TOL'T 9S'T Sec ST¢ 8671 I8'T 8I'c¢ 002 PBT 69'T'Tcet 98T€£1O9TByT ele 461 €8169'T 66Ty8T IZ'T 8ST'T82'1 cLt191 (ST Tvl €6T [81 69°T 8ST c8t OZT65°T 6h'T'TS2'T O9'T IST thISel 921 99'T"LST8¥'T 99°T9ST 8y'T 6€1'TTe'T ovIevtTSCT 6271 O09T€S'T 9V'T 6€°T Is't tht eT Tel'TZU oeTvet 621 be'l Spt OpTISET OFT 6€ICET 82Tbet'TITT ceTde. €2t 6tT cel 8¢°' S2éT Ie Zol€e.T 02Tt91'T80'T OcTSTI 9TItt Oct 8T1STI ett OTT ptt ctt Ott'Tv0'T 60°T 80TZOT90'T 60°T 80TZOT90'T 80°T LOT 90°T SOT ae 49 ao ARE 49 a5 BY RE 49 45 DORE seg Leunyen LLO LeNpLsoy LtO 972, LLISLGWIQYSWWOD (00'T = S661 4ea,JO Butuutbag) S8DLPU] BDlud [anj 4edA-JO-puz paydaoug (Bulwoxm "UOJBULYSEM'YEN"UOBIUQ'ODLXdW Ma 'EPeASN'eUueJUOW'OYePT "LLEMPH'OPP4OLO}"OlusOsL {OJ "eUOZLUY'eySelY) p uoLbay snsua7 "adk} [any pue wozOas asn-pua Aq 'juaduad gpue 'Gg'p'E JO $9}eu UOLJE [JUL adLud [euauab pounsse YyzLM SadLPUL adLUd Lan} pazoefoug OMB suggests that the actual discount rate for an economic analysis be interpolated from these maturities and rates,based on the study period used in the analysis. Due to limitations on the size of this Annual Supplement,discount factors for only two of these maturities are presented:a rate for short-term analyses (up to 10 years)based on the 7-year rate (2.5%),and a rate for long-term analyses (longer than 10 years)based on the 30-year rate (2.8%). As aresult,these discount factors are for approximation purposes only.It is suggested that the NIST Building Life Cycle Cost (BLCC)or DISCOUNT programs be used to compute the present value factors for the discount rate corresponding to the length of the study period when approximate values are not satisfactory for the project analysis. 429 60S Be 982 869 GBF L9€ BL¢ cO9 19 SE 69°¢ 49°S 68b6b€192 G'S 8v92'€ E92 vOS 866 ETE Ibe Sly 6£€ OE 62 Spr O09€682 CEC cy ve BL2Se? B6€ 92° L9'e BI? 92€ITE L9°¢ cle yS€ 96'¢ Lye GO? vee Te lec 66'T ST€892 822 C6T 46°¢ SS¢ 612 /8T 6L¢ che 602 I8'T 19°2 8¢2'¢ 00°¢ blI vee 9T'? T6'T 89'T Bc¢ VOC eBTcoT Il'é ToT TZT91 46T 6Z1€9'T 8bT 98TT/T"ZSIeyteZt09T6bI8e'T19'T OST Ivlt[eT OST cht vet det OvtTveI8c eet Tet 921 Tet"fT1 col BIT SIT ett blTITT 60T 40T ZOT90T SOT OT a9 BG ORY ORE A4L914999[9 "penuljuod"p-S aLgeL p02€20¢cc02Te0¢e02026102B02L1029102S102vl0cE102e102Tl02010260028002L0029002$002v00c£002c002T00¢000266618661L661966TS661dea,iV 45 TableS-4.Projectedfuelpriceindiceswithassumedgeneralpriceinflationratesof3,4,5,and6percent,byend-usesectorandfueltype.Idaho,Montana,Nevada,NewMexico,Oregon,Utah,Washington,Wyoming)CensusRegion4(Alaska,Arizona,California,Colorado,Hawaii,(BeginningofYear1995=1.00)ProjectedEnd-of-YearFuelPriceIndicesRESIDENTIALse OOD CO Mm LOM COWODANOYATMO Seats stda) GelCO ee COmiwoN COMWOANOWTLWO ed Ce oe ee Ree eee Roe | aPRO THAMm OOr.ZTOANNOS STeta ee LONI CO CUM CQ COMOOmAANAIOIOD Ce ee ee Be Boe ee FEW MAINAIODLOWOANODTWO to ee ee De ee ee Be LOMIOM™LOW WOpgPCTInetwoaCnoeAceMeKeeedo seat Ou NW ae LOTOOANNOst tet tee se oom A™ONLMNOODOAAANGS tos Moo Me ee oe Be Fe mm WOM LO WOO)WOONOOSDLOMm Taed te oe oe oe Be oeOo VEEOMDADAVNAHBPSANOBSTO_-ata -_- -PFOAMMODAYNYAPOAAIWNYOTSTWw oO estetese eITHATOONOMIMDMORAAIWNOOST te en Be De Be Be seM LOMO NNOWOOANOYDAL Ss ee oe cee Mee oe> TM FO MNHM™LOD tTUOMOrtANOTWH a fs Me Recon Re Me Bee De» 1S)DM sewswOdIOOTtSOTTINNOT,testi ReTHIMOMOAD MODAANNCD mest CWMWwonmonon DBDAHANDAAHCO BDWANDADHOCOpeoeeeeta 1.601.761.932.131.671.862.062.291.751.972.212.471.842.092.362.671.922.192.512.862.002.312.663.072.092.442.843.312.182.573.023.552.272.713.213.812.483.013.644.402.593.173.884.732.703.344.135.082.823.524.395.462.953.714.675.871.451.561.691.821.521.661.811.972.372.853.424.103.083.924.976.303.214.135.296.773.354.355.637.283.504.585.997.813.654.836.388.393.815.096.799.021.561.721.892.081.661.852.062.281.782.002.252.521.882.132.422.731.992.282.602.972.102.422.803.232.202.562.993.472.292.703.183.742.402.853.394.022.503.013.614.322.623.173.844.642.733.354.094.993.113.934.946.203.254.145.266.673.404.375.607.173.714.866.368.291.421.541.661.791.491.631.771.932.853.534.365.372.983.724.645.773.554.615.977.713.885.136.778.914.055.417.219.581.561.711.862.021.641.801.982.181.711.902.112.341.802.022.272.541.892.152.432.751.992.272.602.972.092.412.793.212.182.552.973.462.282.683.163.712.472.973.564.272.583.133.794.583.174.045.136.503.314.255.456.973.454.475.797.483.744.95.6.548.613.905.216.959.231.481.601.721.862.372.823.353.982.693.294.024.912.803.464.275.272.923.654.545.653.043.844.836.063.594.716.158.021.401.511.631.761.461.591.741.891.521.671.842.021.581.761.952.171.651.852.082.331.721.952.212.501.802.062.362.691.882.172.512.891.962.292.673.102.122.522.993.552.202.643.173.802.292.773.364.062.382.913.564.342.473.063.774.652.573.214.004.972.673.374.235.322.773.534.495.692.883.714.756.083.003.895.046.513.124.085.346.963.244.285.657.443.364.505.997.962.042.402.823.3220022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024PREFACE This is the 1995 edition of energy prices and discount factors for life-cycle cost analysis as established by the U.S.Department of Energy (DOE)in Subpart A of Part 436 of Title 10 of the Code of Federal Regulations (10 CFR Part 436,Subpart A),and amplified in the Life-Cycle Costing Manual for the Federal Energy Management Program (NIST Handbook 135).The data are provided as an aid to implementing life-cycle cost evaluations of potential energy conservation and renewable energy investments in existing and new Federally owned and leased buildings. The life-cycle costing methods and procedures as set forth in 10 CFR,Part 436,Subpart A,are to be followed by all Federal agencies,unless specifically exempted,in evaluating the cost effectiveness of potential energy conservation and renewable energy investments in Federally owned and leased buildings. As called for by legislation,the National Institute of Standards and Technology has provided technical assistance to the U.S.Department of Energy in the development and implementation of life- cycle costing methods and procedures.This is the second of a three-volume set which together provide the methods,data,and computational tools for life-cycle cost analysis of Federal energy projects. Included in the three-volume set for Federal life-cycle cost analysis are the following: (1)Life-Cycle Costing Manual for the Federal Energy Management Program,National Institute of Standards and Technology,Handbook 135 (1987).(Under Revision) The manual is a guide to understanding life-cycle costing and related methods of economic analysisastheyareappliedtoFederaldecisions.It describes the required procedures and assumptions,defines and explains how to apply and interpret economic performance measures,gives examples ofFederaldecisionproblemsandtheirsolutions,explains how to use the energy price indices and discount factors which are updated annually in the supplement,and provides worksheets and other computational aids and instructions for calculating the required measures. (2)Energy Price Indices and Discount Factors for Life-Cycle Cost Analysis,National Institute of Standards and Technology,NISTIR 85-3273 (updated annually). This report,which is updated annually,gives the energy price and discount factor multipliers neededtoestimatethepresentvalueofenergyandotherfuturecosts.The data are based on energy priceprojectionsdevelopedbytheEnergyInformationAdministrationoftheU.S.Department of Energy. Request the latest edition when ordering. (3)NIST "Building Life Cycle Cost"(BLCC)Computer Program,National Institute of Standards and Technology,NISTIR 4481 (May 1993). The NIST Building Life-Cycle Cost program provides comprehensive economic analysis capabilities for the evaluation of proposed capital investments that are expected to reduce the long-term operating costs of buildings and building systems.NIST BLCC is designed to run on IBM PC and compatible microcomputers with approximately 640 K of random access memory (RAM).BLCC computes the for each alternative,compares project alternatives in order to determine which has the lowest LCC, performs cash flow analyses,and computes net savings,savings-to-investment ratio (SIR),and adjusted internal rate of return (AIRR)for project alternatives over their designated study period. BLCC can be used to perform economic analysis of Federal and of private sector projects.BLCC (version 4.2)uses the 1995 energy price data in NISTIR 85-3273-9.BLCC in its application to Federal energy conservation and renewable energy projects is consistent with NIST Handbook 135 (see #1 above).In its application to non-energy projects,BLCC is consistent with OMB Circular A-94.In its application to private-sector and non-Federal public-sector projects,BLCC is consistent with ASTM standards for building economics. | Included on the BLCC disk is BLCC Quick Input,a simplified version of BLCC which can be used to set up an analysis of multiple project alternatives.Also included is the DISCOUNT program (version 3.4),which can calculate present value,future value,and annual value factors for any discount rate and study period.DISCOUNT can access the DOE energy price projections included on the BLCC disk to compute the UPV*factors needed for Federal LCC analyses of energy projects, consistent with the factors included in this report. The three-volume set can also be used to perform economic evaluations of Federal building projects which are not primarily for conserving energy or providing renewable energy but which have an energy cost component.NIST Handbook 135 explains both applications. The U.S.Department of Energy was directed by legislation and executive order to make available to the private sector the methods,procedures,and related aids developed for Federal use.In response to this directive,the National Institute of Standards and Technology,under sponsorship of the U.S.Department of Energy,published a life-cycle costing book for use by the private sectorentitledComprehensiveGuideforLeast-Cost Energy Decisions,NBS SP 709 (January 1987).The private sector guide is supported by the data provided here,as well as by the BLCC computer program.The BLCC program (version 4.2)supersedes the NBSLCC program which is documented in SP 709.BLCC provides LCC computational support for private sector projects as well as for Federal projects. To order any of the printed publications contact: Advanced Sciences,Inc. 1525 Wilson Blvd,Suite 1200 Arlington,VA 22209-9998 (703)243-4900 Vi priceinflationratesof3,4,5,and6percent,byend-usesectorandfueltype.ProjectedfuelpriceindiceswithassumedgeneralTableS-3,continued.CensusRegion3(Alabama,Arkansas,Delaware,DistrictofColumbia,Florida,Georgia,Kentucky,Loutsiana,Maryland,Mississippi,NorthCarolina,Oklahoma,SouthCarolina,Tennessee,Texas,Virginia,WestVirginia)(BeginningofYear1995=1.00)COMMERCIALProjectedEnd-of-YearFuelPriceIndicesDistillateOi]SteamCoal4%NaturalGas4%ResidualOi]4%Electricity6%3h5&OGR3%5'O6R3%5%4%5h623%4%5%6%3%YearDM AN MO Ato DdoOwNAYMAIARTRHAANRDMONYWDtOIODDANDTWONORNTOONAPOOMRTHMCOMMAMD SSININNNIOININ09090909SFOSTLOLLDOO00 MMODOAV AAAOWOTNAMMANAMNOAHDMOOoRnATODWOCANNOMTFAWOWOMDDHODANTMUODOAMNMMNOMANTHAN SHHNINNNNNNOMYSSSTIO Mm OM OM Ot SOHN TMI NWOR MR ERE ODAMNORATOADOMLWDADANYOSTTOOOMMEMONDNDTANMAWOMOHANTOMA i tt et Ss SIN NN NOONAN N09 09 09 09 09 OD OATOTONDTOOTNMOMTODOMOM™oONMTOWUWMOANAAANNAOOSTTMOMMOMMONHOAAINIO&TUL Mm OD tSINNNN AMO STTRHADMNONNODAHNOWDDMDOAOtTHAATOOCOTNSSDANMAMNONRNHAONTUODHDODANDADNWOOMOMAMNSsAS SHAINNNNNOOOOSTSAMOMNOOMEODN DMNMODOOWOUONMNMONMDOMORRANMHMMOAAMOMONADDANNMOBITANOMDWDOAMMOMDONT™ANMODetONWOO INNNNNOOMOSSAWOLOOM MmMODUMWDOTANNAARDRTHRWWMAONTOMODAANMMAMNWOMDHONIOTOMHONTODAOCNLMOC SB SSSA NNNNNN NOOO SST TOW WAWHMOOOMDOOTFTHAMMNAHHNMOMWMOMMmMAIMOCCBDAANNYMMOTATMNOOMOANHDDANMTANONMHDOCAYDTODAN tttINNNNNNNOD090909090)0D NNTPOMACHTDOMNNADADANONDMMNMUMOOODTNANMOMTODONTONDATHRAMODMNOMCDUMOMOMrmwowonm AAA AANNNANNN OOM OTTAMNMWOORERODHMOOAINSsae AHOAMMO AMMO STATA MNMONOCAAAOATNDNODANCM™MANOOSFLOMWOONTOMONTERANWODCIMBWRMNDHOD AAS ASIN NNN 09 09 09 09 09 ST ST ST LOL OSLO TSP COCO DNS DPMP WAMOONNDAOTAM DAATOMMUONMIODONMEWYDANFORHONMNODHAMIODAMIANOOGstoaQe tINNOONINN09090909SSetTLLD.LO COLO WMO MON AN TODANMWDODAAKDOOROMHIMOADSANYTNOORDOFANMTMORDONMINAATOANN INNAONINNINON909090909OOSSSSPLOLOL MmOWM OTFTOMM MANN OMAN BHM ODAWOAWONANWOWONDANMMNOOADAMMOMANDAMOMOOMIONMNOSTOMmWM A A ASIANA N09 09 09 ST OST ST LO LOL OOP COD DOS OMNN OW ONMENMER MO SBODN AT OANA OM NANO oHDBDANVMTAMOMDUAANTODAATOODMATROMMAUNATA tt IN NNN NOMI OTT TNO WO WOO OADM OMmODAMTAMROMATAOODANTANTMHRAOOWNNSTDAANYMTNOWODNHACHAYNTOMHAONATWODONUMOMODN St tt SIRNA UN NINO 09 0 O99 9 SS ST TT LOLOL TFRMONCOMWOONMTYMNYTANMNOMANMDMOMDTOCOMOTSDOAANAMMANOMDHOANYNTNODNHONMOMOMOAONT VN it SIN NNN NINN NON 09 09 09 09 09 9 SOS MmMOnDWOMMU te sATTOOCOTHMHMNONBDDMDODDAANOrM-WMWWMmaDHANYTMOOMOANHDAMNMTAMORHONTONATOANMD SOA AHN NNN OOO SS STTOW WORAONHMUO NOM AN RANMTWODMWMNODNAMEWHOAMNMWDAAANYMYTMNOOMAHOANMTAUNOMDBDOAYNTODONT LO TDCI MONDO AMAR NN DMO TAAMMNO TF MIMYNIMMOIW WO OnsDOANYMSTAMMOOMDHANHNDANDMTMOMDHONI STM OMNMEMNODTOMGMAHTATAAAONODOADDMADODMNONSDBDOAAANAINMOMSTATMOMNOOMMODANAGDSANNOATW i SII NN NNN NN OOM DOA DOHBAMAMONMADADHDANMTMNOMADNHDOANOSTDAAADAHADDIOCVCOCOCDVOWOVOeaAAaaHAHAANANANNADDADHDDOODOODOCDDVDDODODOODODOOVDSOOmeetINININNINOONIONONIONQUENTONIONONONINONIONONIN 43 PC Software Interest Group 1030D E.Duane Ave. Sunnyvale,CA 94086 To order BLCC for analyses of Federal buildings,contact the above address.Other users may order (408)730-9291 Please request the publications by name and number. BLCC from one of the following:SZ°8 6S°9 SI°8 61'9 8S°£ 18'S 90°L 90'S L45°9 €1'S IT9 ¢8'b 69°S eS'P 0€°S 92° €6'b 00° 6S'b 9L'€ Lev €S°€ 86°€ CEE OZ cle' bre 62 T2€ 9L'e 86'¢ 652 8L'2 vr? 9G°2 92'¢ vec 60°¢ 6l'2 L6T €0'¢ SBT Z8°T ¢éLTl92T€9'Tv9tTeS'TeSttrlcvtT9€'Tpel 621 Sel ect 9T'T vit 80°T LOT 49 AGsey peunqen <-> n =<SI INNNNNNNN OOOO St lee)[onfae)lon)Ne) t $iS) NeotaA2o=SanaSoSrmostBul20g=Bunaoe 10 rSE BE 6e'€ 08°Sze=G2IDe GZ86°2=BZ98°2 +8 pl2 oft 29°2 SO 1S°2 0/ Ov'2 1g 0g°2 90 12°2 8/ Il'2 1S €0°2 lz 61 10 98°T €8 Q/'T 79 99°T 7 09°T 62 €S'T eI StI 86 Or'T €8 ye'T 69 82°T 9S €2°T by 61°T re SIT b2 Ol'T SI S0'T 10 SASS ANN NNN OOOO TT TINININOON RN © St.Johnsbury,VT 05819-0381 Energy Information Services (802)748-5148 P.O.Box 3816L'€(op) n Sa Sass AARON antes SS e Workshops on the life-cycle costing method and energy analysis are conducted at locations around the country each year.The workshops include training and software for both BLCC and an energy analysis computer program called "A Simplified Energy Analysis Method"(ASEAM).A schedule of workshops can be obtained from the Office of Applied Economics,National Institute of Standards and Technology,Building 226,Room B226,Gaithersburg,MD 20899,Telephone (301)975-6132. Sagas saat Three video training films in a series entitled "Least-Cost Energy Decisions for Buildings"have been prepared by NIST.These films include "Introduction to Life-Cycle Costing","Uncertainty and can be ordered from Video Transfer,Inc.,5709-B Arundel Avenue,Rockville,MD 20852,Tel (301) Risk,"and "Choosing Economic Evaluation Methods."The video films and companion workbooks 881-0270. 4Z'8 09:9 S6'P 81°8 129 ly e9L S8°S "Lb y ItZ 199 Ge'p €9°9 8T'S 0D 81°9 88h Be 92S 6S SIE 4G c&y Ie 10'S 90'b 62°€ LQ'v €8€ Le Step 09°€ 62 90'b GEE EBC BL€OIE 89'¢ eG€OO GS'¢ 62°€ ¢82 cVe ZOE 99'2 OFC G8 0S'¢ 612 G92 vee LO?e 9b'c 02¢ 96'T 622 LO298'T tl'2 pol "ZL T 86TcB LOT egt O04TJST69T8ST 8r 9ST Bvt 6€T pol Zet Tet cet 8c. eel eel O02T9T'T pI'Tt et. 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Ove 262 ONC 82°C pee 912 He? 61°2 c0'€ 09°2 E22 O12 S82 lbc te T0°2 99°2 ce? £0°¢ c6'T bye 912 T6T €8°T Sec 002 O6L'T SLT 80°22 481 69T L9°T G6°T "fZ°T WT 6ST egtT £9Tt PST IST TZ'T 89°T 9P'T evi 09°T 6b'T OFT 9e°T 6yv't wt eet 82°T 6€t cet 92T ecT O€'t S2T OeT OTT ecTl8tT SIT OTT tT'T ct.t ot SOT Z40°I 90°T SOT ae 29 aS avAYL944999[3 ' LUNOSSLW 'pqosauulW'UuebLydiW'sesuey'eMOT'BueLpUy'SiouLI{I) Z uoLbay snsua) *adk} [any pue 40WDaS asn-pua Aq 'quadued gpue 'Gs'y'E JO Sazeu UOLzeLJUuL BdLud |esauah paunsse YLM S@dLpUL adLud janj pazoafoug "e@-S a1geL pc02€202cc0e1202020¢61028102L1029102S102p02e102e1021102010260028002L0029002S002v00c£002c002T00¢000266618661L661966TS661Jeah 40 on 7 Coos Noes Keone Ren Re oe Roe Re Roe Ko] 90'S81°es'y82'VS0'¥veecoftreveeLoe06°2GZ09°¢onecf?€2°¢tlé€0'¢€6'1S816L'1691co1eslIy'lvel92'T02'TvI'T80'TaS 08°¢co9'eTe"€9T'€c0'€88'¢GL'ée9'¢1S2OV'262°¢6260°200°2£6'T£816L°TcL1£91€9'Tgo'T0STtrilcel8¢2'Tce19T'TeltLOTav [0 weays CONTENTS Page + foe) N a |td StitttteettetsttSINNNNNNNPREFACE ABSTRACT st + Cee Moen oon Ree oe oe ee ee Be | wo st toe neon Moen on oon Be Roe Ke ee Mm oO a5 oa&aD seg jeunyen Ss Be Be ee eB oe nee oe Be Be |ve'oO Qo I tt ts SI ONIN AIAN AIN AION ON OD OD SASH ANNN NOOO TSTNWOONOOM AANMN DDONHAAOVODMNOTAODAMONDWAIP.OO ttooITMOODHAAMITMHRHAINOATMHMANNHMDAMHAUNINA SSA ATNNNNNOMOONOSSFAMOMOMWOONMMEMONA oo an aoa ag TOMDONTODATPROTMANT St tN NN NIN NO 09 09 09 OSS ST PLO LO LN WOLCO L0 Noe TSTOTTMNDMDOMMCOUMAatMmOHve"av LtO LeNpLsey te ee oe oe Bt oe oe Se oe 21ot19°Z0v'6cL8OT'8eo869879c0'985'S81'S18'pLy'vST¥G8'eBS'ece'"9L1O 8781119810 vid69°9£09£8°S0S°S91'SvercS'pSe'V86'€eleos'€82'€Zoea vz Co oe oe oe es Ke ee asWIDYSNNOD (00° = S661 Jee,JO BuLuuLbag) S9DLPU] BDLUg Lan4 weas-JO-puz paqdeoud 62°av SSINNNNOD € (JUOWIAA "PUB{ST apoyYy 'eLUeAASUUad"yYUOXA MAN 'AOSJal MAN 'auLysdwey May 'SZZaSNyIeESSeW'aULeW'43NDLWDaUUOD) [ UOLBayY sNsua7 "adk} Lanny pue woJDas asn-pua Aq 'juaduad 9gpue 'Gg'yp'E JO $ajeu UOlze| JUL adLud [euauab pauinsse yzLM SadLpuL adLud jan} paqoefoug ACKNOWLEDGMENTS LIST OF TABLES ABBREVIATIONS TABLES FOR FEDERAL LIFE-CYCLE COST ANALYSIS ...............1PARTI A.Single Present Value and Uniform Present Value Discount Factors .............1 B.Modified Uniform Present Value Discount Factors for Federal Use C.Projected Average Fuel Price Indices and Escalation Rates for Federal Use.......18 D.Factors for Updating Appliance Label Values ............-2 00+eee eee 3S TABLES FOR PRIVATE SECTOR LIFE-CYCLE COST ANALYSISPARTII Projected Average Fuel Price Indices for Private Sector Use .............+..+.-.36 96S 8hbIEE c9S lev eee 62'S 90'r ITE 66'y 98'C 86-2 IZ 89€L8°¢ vey OS€922BIvycee G9 vee LTE GSe cle c0€ She TSE 80 GE? tee tLe 92'¢ cle 092 Lie 6c Bre 6072 LL2@ 982 00°¢ 19°¢ be? C61 lye vie SBT ve? S02 62T 02°? t6T eZTl voce cBIe9T ch €L'T 9ST I8'T p9'T 67T IZ'T £91 tel I9'T 6bTBET IS'T ev. cet cyt vet Let cel det It 921 IéT 9I'T BIT STT ITT Itt 60T 401 SOT vO'T fO'T 49 8G RYAYL914999[3 te norms re te ee oe ee Be ee Be oe | "Ppanuljuod"T-S age ¥c02€20¢éc02120202026102810L1029102S102vI0ZE102cl0ZT10¢010260028002£0029002S002y00c€00220021002000266618661L66T9661S66Tdea) 39 LIST OF TABLES 2,7o g° - igKZ}38 i) ©ge&§2#22&§& rs)52§>o&§2ad:Gog:eC«&56g3s$BS$og2Qa&23p23mes&n ££6g&&> FSavoAoe74<< 9/°8 65°9 S6 GI'8 61°9 69 6S°L 28°S Sb LOL LS 22° 85°9 I'S 10° 219 €8'r 08° 02°S Sr 19° 0€°S 92'b ey €6'b 0'p be 6S'y 9/°€ 80 82'p PSE 26 g6'€ 2e°e LL OLE 20€9 Gye b6'2 bP T2€ 92°2 LE 66°2 65°2 v2 81°22 by'2 EI 95°2 922 00 re°2 60'°2 98 61'2 /6°T Zl €0'2 G8T89 18'T 2Z°T 8S Q/'T €9'T TS p9'l €ST &p eSl plS€ 2p'l SEL 62 eel 821 €2 G2'I I2°t 81 Ql'l i'l dt 80'I ZO0'I 90 sey [eunyen A INNA 3.0%(FEMP,FY 1995).Census Region 1 (Connecticut, Maine,Massachusetts,New Hampshire,New Jersey,New York,Pennsylvania, Rhode Island,Vermont) UPV*discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation,by end-use sector and fuel type.Discount Rate Ba-1.Ge'€s+ fon) IRINNONININNOD SIRNANNN0090909StStSIDLOLOORNO00 UPV'*discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation,by end-use sector and fuel 9 3.0%(FEMP,FY 1995).Census Region 2 (Illinois,Indiana,Iowa,Kansas,Michigan,Minnesota,Missouri,Nebraska,North Dakota, Ohio,South Dakota,Wisconsin)..... type.Discount Rate Ba-2. €£°9 S0'S c'9 =6L'P 6S Sb LSS It'p €2'S 80'b 6b 8'€ 19'p LOE cv Bre LO'b Oe'€ cBe ele 6S°€ 96°¢ Zee 18'2 9T'€ 99°¢ lL6°2 292 6L°2 bE?coe=Le?9v'2 ST?¢ c&'e S02 8I'¢c v6Tl SOc v81€61STgt 99°T 69'T "ST BST Srl Syl Ort eT eT 621 bel Tel fT etl I'l 90°T SOT a5 av 3.0%(FEMP,FY 1995).Census Region 3 (Alabama, Arkansas,Delaware,District of Columbia,Florida,Georgia,Kentucky,Louisiana, Maryland,Mississippi,North Carolina,Oklahoma,South Carolina,Tennessee, Texas,Virginia,West Virginia) UPV*discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation,by end-use sector and fuel type.Discount Rate Ba-3.OVEWw Oo I tt INIQUITY0909OD 10 3.0%(FEMP,FY 1995).Census Region 4 (Alaska, Arizona,California,Colorado,Hawaii,Idaho,Montana,Nevada,New Mexico, 11Oregon,Utah,Washington,Wyoming) UPV'*discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation,by end-use sector and fuel type.Discount Rate +ws 91°8 69°9 S6'h 418 129 02% cL 8S Lby O12 09'S Se'r c99 LTS €0't 419 L480 EB'€ GSLS 89bpVIE 90°S fb 9b 00°S 90°F 62€ 99°'y cBEETE St'b 65°€ 62 G0'b 8EE CBC BLE BIE 89°¢ cS€00'€ GG'¢ B82€CBS Che 90°€ 99'2 OE? S8'c¢ 052 812 99'¢ ve? LO? 9vp'c 02e96'T 6e'¢ L0¢ 98T plc vet LLT 861 cB LOT evil O41 ZS'T69Tt8S18ri9ST fbI#6T byl el Tet cel 82. feet eet Oc. ZIT vI't eft Ot L4O°'T 90°'T SOT 49 Se) av [tO 9FeLLL4ISLGWILN3OTS3Y (00'T = S661 "ee, JO BuLuulbag) SODLPU] BDLuUg [aNj 4edA-J0-puR paqdeloug Ba-5.UPV*discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation,by end-use sector and fuelINNNAINA99099909 123.0%(FEMP,FY 1995).United States averagetype.Discount Rate UPV*discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation,by end-use sector and fuelBb-1. (JUOWUa, 'PUB{ST apoyYy 'BLUPA[ASUUag'yIOX MAN 'AaSuar May 'ad LysSduey MAN 'S2JASNYIESSEW'auLey'3ND172AQUUOD) [ UOLBay snsua 'adk} [any pue uojdes asn-pua Aq 'quaduad gpue 'Gs'y'¢ JO Sdyzeu UOLe [JUL adtud [evauab pawnsse YILM SAadLpuL adLud jan} paqoefoug SHANNANNOOOOSTIONOONRN =t ™ N re) rs) 13 2.5%(years 1-10)and 2.8%(years 11-30),(OMB Circular A-94).Census Region 1 (Connecticut,Maine,Massachusetts,New Hampshire,New Jersey,New York,Pennsylvania,Rhode Island,Vermont) type.Discount Rate UPV*discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation,by end-use sector and fuelBb-2. co + Stated et estedesede oy Loe)AYL9149993[4 "TS eLgel et Sst st st et es ed =2.5%(years 1-10)and 2.8%(years 11-30),(OMB CircularA-94).Census Region 2 (Illinois,Indiana,Iowa,Kansas,Michigan,Minnesota, Missouri,Nebraska,North Dakota,Ohio,South Dakota,Wisconsin) type.Discount Ratecoum COaAN oOoneSTULOMmTe"on on SA SSRNNNNOO 14lorie) vc02€202cc021202020261028102L1029102ST02v10eE102cl02T10¢010260028002L0029002S002vo0dd£0022002T00¢00026661866TL6619661S661JP3) xi38 Bb-3. Bb-4. Bb-5. Ca-1. Ca-2. Ca-3. Ca-4. Ca-5. Cb-1. LIST OF TABLES (continued) Page UPV*discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation,by end-use sector and fuel type.Discount Rate =2.5%(years 1-10)and 2.8%(years 11-30),(OMB Circular A-94).Census Region 3 (Alabama,Arkansas,Delaware,District of Columbia, Florida,Georgia,Kentucky,Louisiana,Maryland,Mississippi,North Carolina, Oklahoma,South Carolina,Tennessee,Texas,Virginia,West Virginia)......15 UPV'discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation,by end-use sector and fuel type.Discount Rate =2.5%(years 1-10)and 2.8%(years 11-30),(OMB Circular A-94).Census Region 4 (Alaska,Arizona,California,Colorado,Hawaii,Idaho, Montana,Nevada,New Mexico,Oregon,Utah,Washington,Wyoming)......16 UPV*discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation,by end-use sector and fuel type.Discount Rate =2.5%(years 1-10)and 2.8%(years 11-30),(OMB Circular A-94).United States average ...2...0...ee es 17 Projected fuel price indices (excluding general inflation)by end-use sector and fuel type.Census Region 1 (Connecticut,Maine,Massachusetts,New Hampshire,New Jersey,New York,Pennsylvania,Rhode Island,Vermont)..............20 Projected fuel price indices (excluding general inflation)by end-use sector and fuel type.Census Region 2 (Illinois,Indiana,Iowa,Kansas,Michigan,Minnesota, Missouri,Nebraska,North Dakota,Ohio,South Dakota,Wisconsin)........22 Projected fuel price indices (excluding general inflation)by end-use sector and fuel type.Census Region 3 (Alabama,Arkansas,Delaware,District of Columbia, Florida,Georgia,Kentucky,Louisiana,Maryland,Mississippi,North Carolina, Oklahoma,South Carolina,Tennessee,Texas,Virginia,West Virginia)......24 Projected fuel price indices (excluding general inflation)by end-use sector and fuel type.Census Region 4 (Alaska,Arizona,California,Colorado,Hawaii,Idaho, Montana,Nevada,New Mexico,Oregon,Utah,Washington,Wyoming).....26 Projected fuel price indices (excluding general inflation)by end-use sector and fuel type.United States average 20...eee 28 Projected average fuel price escalation rates exclusive of general price inflation,by end-use sector and fuel type (percentage change compounded annually).Census Region 1 (Connecticut,Maine,Massachusetts,New Hampshire,New Jersey,New York,Pennsylvania,Rhode Island,Vermont).........-.0.65 e eres 30 xii current (market)dollars.The DISCOUNT program,included with BLCC,can compute UPV* factors based on DOE energy price escalation rates using any inflation rate and discount rate.(See page iv for more information on these programs.)Of course the private sector analyst may use the UPV'factors provided in Part I,provided the analysis is performed in constant dollars,and the desired discount rate is either 3.0%or 2.8%. For further explanation of the use of these indices,see NBS Special Publication 709,appendix B, Part I. The data in the tables which follow are reported for the 4 Census regions and the U.S.average. Figure B-1 presents a map showing the states corresponding to the 4 Census regions.The Census regions do not include American Samoa,Canal Zone,Guam,Puerto Rico,Trust Territory of the Pacific Islands,or the Virgin Islands.Analysts of Federal projects in these areas should use data which are "reasonable under the circumstances,"and may refer to the tables with U.S.average data for guidance. 37 PART II:TABLES FOR PRIVATE SECTOR LIFE-CYCLE COST ANALYSIS Projected average fuel price indices for private sector use (Indices are given inclusive of four alternative rates of general price inflation) This section presents in Tables S-1 through S-5 projected average fuel price indices for 4 fuels in the residential sector and 5 fuels in the commercial sector for each of the years from 1995 through 2024.They update tables originally published in the report,Comprehensive Guide for Least-Cost Energy Decisions (NBS SP 709). As a convenience for the user,the indices include the effect of four alternative,hypothetical rates of general price inflation:3,4,5,and 6%.Selection of these rates is intended in no way to suggest what actual rates might be.Use of the indices produce price estimates which are in current dollars, inclusive of general price inflation.Current dollar prices are needed when discounting is performed with discount rates which include general price inflation. The indices based on inflation rates of 3,4,5,and 6%allow the analyst to perform evaluationsbasedontheassumptionofapositiverateofgeneralpriceinflationthatchangesthepurchasingpowerofthedollar.Performing evaluations in current dollars is sometimes preferred for private investment decisions,primarily because it facilitates the treatment of taxes. The indices in Tables S-1 through S-5 are derived from the indices reported in Tables Ca-1 through Ca-5 by means of the following equation: Ip=Iox +g)', where I;=index found in Tables S-1 through S-5; I.=index found in Tables Ca-1 through Ca-5; g =annual rate of general price inflation in decimal form;and N =number of periods,in this case equal to the year of the index minus 1994. Example of How to Use the Indices: Suppose you wish to estimate the present value of energy savings in year 2000,and you expect an annual inflation rate of 5%per year.Taking natural gas for residential use in Maryland,estimate present value savings as follows:(1)multiply today's price for residential natural gas in Maryland by the projected quantity of energy savings in the year 2000 to estimate savings in the year 2000 in today's prices;(2)go to Table S-3,find the year 2000 index for residential natural gas at a 5% inflation rate (1.44),and multiply the index by the result from (1)to determine savings in the year 2000 in 2000 prices;and (3)discount the savings back to the present,using an SPV factor based on a discount rate that reflects a 5%inflation rate.To obtain present value savings over the entire study period,this calculation must be repeated for each year that there are savings,and the results summed.(UPV"factors are not given for private sector use because of the large number of tables required to cover potential discount rates that might be used by the analyst.)The BLCC computer program can perform LCC analyses using any inflation rate and discount rate,in constant or in 36 Cb-2. Cb-3. Cb-4. Cb-5. S-2. S-3. LIST OF TABLES (continued) Page Projected average fuel price escalation rates exclusive of general price inflation,by end-use sector and fuel type (percentage change compounded annually).Census Region 2 (Illinois,Indiana,Iowa,Kansas,Michigan,Minnesota,Missouri,Nebraska,North Dakota,Ohio,South Dakota,Wisconsin)..........202+eee ees 31 Projected average fuel price escalation rates exclusive of general price inflation,byend-use sector and fuel type (percentage change compounded annually).CensusRegion3(Alabama,Arkansas,Delaware,District of Columbia,Florida,Georgia,Kentucky,Louisiana,Maryland,Mississippi,North Carolina,Oklahoma,SouthCarolina,Tennessee,Texas,Virginia,West Virginia)....-.----++eee 32 Projected average fuel price escalation rates exclusive of general price inflation,byend-use sector and fuel type (percentage change compounded annually).CensusRegion4(Alaska,Arizona,California,Colorado,Hawaii,Idaho,Montana,Nevada,New Mexico,Oregon,Utah,Washington,Wyoming).........-+---+--5 33 Projected average fuel price escalation rates exclusive of general price inflation,byend-use sector and fuel type (percentage change compounded annually).UnitedStatesaverage2...ee eee ee ee 34 Factors for updating appliance label values ...1...ee ee eee eee ees 35 Projected fuel price indices with assumed general price inflation rates of 3,4,5,and6%,by end-use sector and fuel type.Census Region 1 (Connecticut,Maine,Massachusetts,New Hampshire,New Jersey,New York,Pennsylvania,RhodeIsland,Vermont)«6 2 eeee 38 Projected fuel price indices with assumed general price inflation rates of 3,4,5,and6%,by end-use sector and fuel type.Census Region 2 (Illinois,Indiana,Iowa,Kansas,Michigan,Minnesota,Nebraska,North Dakota,Ohio,South Dakota, Wisconsin)..2.ee ee eee EE Projected fuel price indices with assumed general price inflation rates of 3,4,5,and6%,by end-use sector and fuel type.Census Region 3 (Alabama,Arkansas,Delaware,District of Columbia,Florida,Georgia,Kentucky,Louisiana,Maryland,Mississippi,North Carolina,Oklahoma,South Carolina,Tennessee,Texas,Virginia, West Virginia)...6.ee ee ee eS 42 Xill S-5. LIST OF TABLES (continued) Page Projected fuel price indices with assumed general price inflation rates of 3,4,5,and 6%,by end-use sector and fuel type.Census Region 4 (Alaska,Arizona,California, Colorado,Hawaii,Idaho,Montana,Nevada,New Mexico,Oregon,Utah,Washington, Wyoming)2.0...ee ee eee eee 44 Projected fuel price indices with assumed general price inflation rates of 3,4,5,and 6%,by end-use sector and fuel type.United States average .............46 xiv D.Factors for Updating Appliance Label Values in Compliance With the Energy Conservation Mandatory Performance Standards for New Federal Residential Buildings (10 CFR 435) Compliance with energy conservation performance standards for new Federal residential buildings requires calculation of a building's energy costs,including appliance costs.For this purpose,label values for gas and electric water heaters are given in the Federal micro-computer program, COSTSAFR,as $176 and $406 per year,respectively,in 1987 dollars,and for refrigerator/freezers, as $61 per year in 1987 dollars.To adjust 1987 prices to 1994 prices,multiply these 1987 label values by the factors below. Table D.Factors for updating appliance label values from 1987-1994 dollars. Fuel Factor Gas 1.15 Electricity 1.13 35 ABBREVIATIONS (00°T = S661 4ea%Jo buLuulbag) SODIpUL ADtUd {10 P[4OmM pazIaloud iSoO>g3a:&¢< a5 r cg8 Es]Oo2£so)PlBoe9f= £23 #2#O 822235222385 6nAA2HHO442Zz'Z, n | 3) a) < <&w AYU oO o) ms = oa kRkESGéYAgz Es ZT el rl oT oT 9T OT OT OT 02 02 02 Ze Le Zé ZT LT ZT v0 v0 v0 Z0 Z°0 Z°0 9°T oT 91 G2 o°2 SZ oT oT oT [0 10 TO pil pil pil pil pil pil Zr ZT ZT 6°0 6°0 6°0 Single Present Value (Factor) Residual OilRESID SPV veeWDAS Dm QOS Modified Uniform Present Value (Factor) Uniform Present Value (Factor)UPV UPV'9°&BOR©&St SUMAN Ly PD.sp Go BAY BUMS I'v LE uoLzduinssy a2lud 110 re)Se BUL {OSE 4OZOWuolzequodsueuy ve 62 [20] weazs v2 Ge SPQ [B1NJeN 0'P Ze [40 Lenpisay 9°2 6°0 L140 2381113510 G0 0°0- AYL914}9917[@LuzSnpuy 9°0 22 [eo} weais pil 8°2 seg jeunzey Ge SP [40 Lenpisay 9°2 IT [40 9381113510 50 £°0 AZ191499917[PLIVAMLOD ZT v2 Se) [PANZEN 6° 6°0 9d] 8'T 8°0 [10 2381113510 6'0 eT AYL914}99[F[eLjuaplsay 000202 [eNy Ppue 4099S 9661 S66I aBPUAAY $A721S pazLup (A, Lenuue papunoduos abueyd afbejuaduad) *adkz any pue uojdas asn-pua Aq 'UOLJeL JUL BdILud [euauab JO SALSNLOXa 'Sazeu UOLYeLeOSa adLud janj aBeuane paqoafoug *G-q) aLqeL XV34 él eT vl ve 9°€ Tv Le UOLJduNssy adLud LLO (00'I = S661 4eaXJo SuluuLbag) SOLPUL adtud [LO Pl4omM paydefoug oT oT 9°T ol GT T'2é Ge OULLOSeD JOOWuoLyequodsueuy OT OT 0'T v0 9'T v0 e's Leo} wes4s 0'¢ A 0'¢ G2 vc 61 Te sey jeunyen Le Le Le? T'2 9°¢ Le T's LLO LENpLsoy LT LT LT 6°T 9°2 9°?¢ 6°0 LtO SJeLLLIslq v0 v0 v0 S°0 0'0- T'0 v0 A4L91U39913LeLuysnpuy £0 L'0 9°0 T'0- 6°0 £0 6°0 [b0} wes4s 9°T 9'T oT BT 0°2 BT Te se) ,eunjen G2 G2 G2 Lee Ge 6°€ 8°2 LLOQ LeNptsey oT O'T OT G2 6°2 Bic GT LLO OFeLLLISLG 10 10 T'0 OT 0'T 0'T 9°0 AYL91499913 |P LOUSUMLO) vii vq CT c'T LT ST v2 sey Leunjen vil vil vit 9°¢ I°2 ST €'0 3d] rant al cl O'¢ T¢ 6°T onl LLO SFeLLLIStq 6°0 6°0 6°0 vit ral ce1 el AYL914993[9LELJUSPLSoY S202 0202 ST0Z 0102 S002 0002 0} 0} 04 0} 0} 0} [any pueyoDas T202 9T02 IT0Z 9002 1002 9661 S661 (BuLwOxAM "UOHULYSeM'YeI'UOBIUQ"ODLXAaW MON 'EPPASN'eUueUOW'OYepT "LLEMPH "OPR4O{OD'PLudOJL{e}'eUOZLUY'BYSe[Y) p UOLBaYyY snsua) (ALLenuue papunodwod abueyd afequaduad) -adky janj pue 4oWIas asn-pua Aq 'UOLJe[JUL BdLUd [e4auah JO SALSNLOXa 'sazeu UOLJeLedSa adLud [any abeuane paydafoug "y-q) alqel 33 ,exclusiveofgeneralpriceinflation,(percentagechangecompoundedannually)Projectedaveragefuelpriceescalationratesbyend-usesectorandfueltype.TableCb-3.NorthCarolina,Oklahoma,SouthCarolina,Tennessee,Texas,Virginia,WestVirginia)CensusRegion3(Alabama,Arkansas,Delaware,DistrictofColumbia,Florida,Georgia,Kentucky,Louisiana,Maryland,Mississippi,1996200120062011201620211995to2025tototo2010to2005to2000SectorandFuel20202015ResidentialNNstst Onde NASas OoOnnae ANT Onn mastO Ade concst One lon Ko oleoka) One Hocal Noon Distillate071ElectricityLPGNaturalGasCommercialmwomwornm OAN AO maAWoOWMwonm OAN ao mown wom OANAoO oOonnsT ONAN© Oommen ONOOo' 9 COHANLO ONMAO Mm OOOO OAMAIOS DistillateOi]ElectricityResidualQi]NaturalGasSteamCoal-+renm OO OANA aren OO OodANINest s+Mm™M™OO OreNAa LOO aw st OANA© Mwow sao ONINea' owom Oat "ONMAO IndustrialStH rH MOMWMOOWD ElectricityDistillate071ResidualOi]NaturalGasSteamCoal1.61.61.61.21.53.52.1TransportationMotorGasolineProjectedworldoi]priceindices3.62.41.41.31.2(Beginningofyear1995=1.00)4.13.7011PriceAssumptionPARTI:TABLES FOR FEDERAL LIFE-CYCLE COST ANALYSIS A.Single Present Value and Uniform Present Value Discount Factors Table A-1 presents the single present value (SPV)factors for finding the present value of future nonfuel,nonannually recurring amounts,such as repair and replacement costs and salvage values. The formula for finding the present value (P)of a future amount (F)is the following: Pp =Fx-1_-Fxspyv,,(1 +dN where d =discount rate,and N =number of periods,such as years,until F occurs. Table _A-2 presents uniform present value (UPV)factors for finding the present value of future nonfuel amounts recurring annually,such as routine maintenance costs.The formula for finding the present value (P)of an annually recurring uniform amount (A)is the following: NLp-AxU+91 =Ax UPYV,,,dl +d)® where d =discount rate,and N =number of periods,such as years,over which A recurs. In Tables A-1 and A-2 the factors are given for both the FEMP and the OMB Circular A-94 discount rates.The factors based on the FEMP discount rate are for finding the present value of future amounts associated with Federal energy conservation and renewable energy projects.The factors based on the OMB discount rates are for finding the present value of future amounts associated with most other Federal projects (except those specifically exempted from OMB Circular A-94).Both the FEMP and the OMB discount rates used in these Tables are defined for Federal use to be "real" rates exclusive of general price inflation.The factors are appliedas multipliers to future amounts which are stated in "constant”dollars,that is,exclusive of general price inflation. Examples of How to Use the Factors: SPV(FEMP):To compute the present value of a replacement cost expected to occur in the 8th year for an energy efficient heating system,go to Table A-1,find the 3.0%SPV factor for year 8 (0.789),and multiply the factor by today's replacement cost."Today's"replacement cost is the cost as of the date of analysis. SPV(OMB,Short-term):To compute the present value of a repair cost in the 5th year for a floor covering (non-energy related),go to Table A-1,find the 2.5%SPV factor for year 5 (0.884),and multiply the factor by today's repair cost. SPV(OMB,Long-term):To compute the present value of a repair cost in the 15th year for a floorcovering(non-energy related),go to Table A-1,find the 2.8%SPV factor for year 15 (0.661),and multiply the factor by today's repair cost. UPV(FEMP):To compute the present value of an annually recurring maintenance cost for a renewable energy system over 20 years,go to Table A-2,find the 3.0%UPV factor for 20 years (14.88),and multiply the factor by the annual maintenance cost stated in today's dollars. UPV(OMB,Short-term):To compute the present value of annually recurring costs of office cleaning over 10 years (for a project not primarily related to energy conservation),go to Table A-2,find the 2.5%UPV factor for 10 years (8.75),and multiply the factor by the annual cleaning cost stated in today's dollars. UPV(OMB,Long-term):To compute the present value of annually recurring costs of office cleaning over 25 years (for a project not primarily related to energy conservation),got to Table A-2,find the 2.8%UPV factor for 25 years (17.81),and multiply the factor by the annual cleaning cost stated in today's dollars. NOTE:The UPV factors are generally applied to costs which recur annually in substantially the same amount (in constant dollars),e.g.,routine operating and maintenance costs.These costs usually occur over the service period of the building life.If there is a planning/design/construction period before the service life begins,during which these annually costs do not occur,the appropriate UPV factor for the service period is the difference between the UPV factor for the entire study period and the UPV factor for the planning/design/construction period.For example,if the planning/design/construction period is 3 years and the service period is 25 years,for a total study period of 28 years,the appropriate UPV factor (from Table A-2,FEMP 3.0%discount rate)is 18.76 -2.83 =15.93. For further explanation and illustration of how to use these factors,see NIST Handbook 135.Projectedaveragefuelpriceescalationrates,exclusiveofgeneralpriceinflation,TableCb-2.usesectorandfueltype.(percentagechangecompoundedannually)byend-CensusRegion2(Illinois,Indiana,Iowa,Kansas,Michigan,Minnesota,Missouri,Nebraska,NorthDakota,Ohio,SouthDakota,Wisconsin)1996200120062011201620211995tototo2015to2010toto2000SectorandFuel202520202005ResidentialANstst Onn ONst Onn AOwNst+ (at he Ne Ke) Mm LOM© etretirde CO NI OD WO ONN CONOO4 ONN om am OmnAA DistillateQi]ElectricityLPGNaturalGasmwoOLowonm COAN TAO mHWOLM Om OANAO MHWL Om COAN TO aoondost ONAN ALO1 woOam mo ONDAO mM AIO09LO OOMra© mos NE. ONWOA DistillateOi]ElectricityResidual071NaturalGasSteamCoalCommercialw_SS a ed ee | OANNAG <trmM4 OANNGs bo a ee Sd OANN OMaAANI AANA LO Pp 00 OD CO ONIN© wWoMadost ONO WON Cr st ONLN©ElectricityDistillate01]Residual071NaturalGasSteamCoalIndustrial1.61.61.61.21.52.13.2MotorGasolineTransportation2.41.41.31.2(Beginningofyear1995=1.00)Projectedworld01]priceindices4.13.7Oi]PriceAssumption riceinflation,ly)"2021to2025angecompoundedannual2016to20202011to20152006to20102001to2005priceescalationrates,exclusiveofgeneral1996to2000"1995CensusRegion1(Connecticut,Maine,Massachusetts,NewHampshire,NewJersey,NewYork,Pennsylvania,RhodeIsland,Vermont)yend-usesectorandfueltype.(percentagechProjectedaveragefuelTableCb-1.SectorandFuelResidentialTable A-1.SPV factors for finding the present value offuturesingleamounts(non-fuel) Single Present Value (SPV)Factors Year of FEMP OMB Discount Rates? Occurrence Discount rate Short term'Long TermANTSmsowmcomTeneowoN(t)3.0%2.5%2.8% Onn OA AAO om to ON Me Me ct 'a 1 971 0.976 0.973 2 0.943 0.952 0.946 3 0.915 0.929 0.920ANststMWLONTHNOo:o 4 0.888 0.906 0.895OnnSANSOAnNaeAmit4 ,5 0.863 0.884 0.871 6 0.837 0.862 0.847 wn 7 0.813 0.841 0.824 OO 8 0.789 0.821 0.802 AN st st MWLOWN +RROO wor ore 9 0.766 0.801 0.780 Onde OHNO OANA nr an 10 0.744 0.781 0.759 1 gt 11 0.722 0.738 29 12 0.701 0.718 iD 13 0.681 0.698 Onan woonwwd ©14 0.661 0.6792AICONNST80oO094CO"N)mem 15 0.642 0.661 ,By 17 0.605 0.625 6°18 0.587 0.608 onwunw WIW OM cow NOSNO ro)a 19 0.570 0.592 dodge SNOAS SNONS a1 BE a 2 p.2u'Oc .. '2D 22 0.522 0.545 om 23 0.507 0.530 a 24 0.492 0.515 MONS INN nome?a |7 2s 0.478 0.501 Odda ONMHO ONMAH mo +26 0.464 0.488 27 0.450 0.474 28 0.437 0.462 29 0.424 0.449 wWiwoto Mm OOM LON Ont0r4 xs 30 0.412 0.437 OoonN SOTNN OTN st le @ OMB discount rates as of March 1994.OMB rates are expected to be 5 revised in February 1995. ;5 Short-term discount rate based on OMB discount rate for 7-year study period. ---wo:='Long-term discount rate based on OMB discount rate for 30-year study period. 5 S-S-,Se!z >”>ic >cw 'me Yn-Ww oO POO or VO o--?Oo!<-'-pp (ap)Coy ee CoO wo mire HY Co oO cow !Os CoO Oe (o)co OO O-oO oi Ww---_'mr Or-UO 'mm Or UO oc 4 oOirefieOcr-D3 tit DOS oO '_pie c Cproce HPpPruoee ats iaOCme}DOH eK BT NOH Dw moi!a.DNnO,H EUVNnN+ww Bvunn+wv ae-craw Err VOY Oe rr VOY oo!-WOU OWoanYZY CwWarvsZnyN c=!1(a)ao -_1 (on)3 €0°2 10°C 661 96T v6 261 68'T /B'Il H8'T 281 OBL LZZT SLL 2L°T OZ'T uolydunssy adlud 110 (00°T = S661 ueah$0 Suluulbag) SIDLPUL ADLUd [LO PluOM paqydaloud col 19'T 8ST 9ST PST IST 6bT"LbTtht cbt ObT BET ST COT eT SULLOSP 4070OWuoLyequodsueuy fyl 9FTtyTtevtlTet ObT8€'T LET ICT SET S€'T cll OT 621 8eT Leo) wes3s CO'c 66T S6T T6T ZB8T €8'T O8T 94'T @fT 69'T 99'T 29T69°'T 99ST CGT sey Leunyey 6y'c fbec98'¢ NOC te? 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NO st+WMWN Nc (& oe -_- ' oe) i} ' ao us pie = ' ' Dan < co1 WwW 4 \ : B&B =O Or a oz ee "ns fon) Oo -wm+s fon) Cc SEfi8 ; 2os ' ' ee3 1 -''o UD oO ian a ' 'YoO Ce StaeeIR AMNONMAME | 85BH ' WMO MOMOTOMMONONSTSETAHAOMOMNMS wo SxEIZSES1 AABROTANGRGHNAGAAHARMDOEDTATOINAG! =AOR . 5 a Ov Ore SCrTn OM| DANYMYTAMOWONRERANNOAANMANMNATOMNMWOUORR DODD : Saka Or >! O' Attesstadi edeie GYoO ' m) ' 1 >oOr Ss t '-_-'' NOLGD >c 'Q' ' a.in S35 nPop,VESPg™es8 . 1 oo 4 , GY%05 ° ree 1 eee ' ' t ' -' »p Ui < enae (| Eris (+) PoP PANMTNOOMANOANMTANORDANHNOHANMTANORDAMNO i eure a ;Sauv! AAA SAAMI NINN NNN ON Ot oVgec © iS ; gone t 1 2 ' OGr1C&D co ona=<=OooO NM a b c 29 Projectedfuelpriceindices(excludinggeneralinflation),byend-usesectorandfueltype.TableCa-5.UnitedStatesAverageProjectedEnd-of-YearFuelPriceIndices(BeginningofYear1995=1.00)199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009SectorandFuelResidential1.011.021.031.031.051.061.071.081.091.101.111.131.151.171.181.011.021.041.061.081.101.131.161.181.201.221.231.251.271.291.011.021.041.061.081.111.131.161.181.201.221.251.271.291.321.021.051.061.071.081.091.101.111.131.151.171.201.231.251.26DistillateOi]ElectricityLPGNaturalGasCommercial1.001.001.011.011.021.031.041.041.051.051.051.061.071.081.081.011.031.051.081.1121.151.191.221.261.291.311.341.361.391.421.041.081.131.161.191.241.291.351.401.431.471.521.571.591.601.031.051.071.081.091.101.121.141.151.181.211.231.261.291.311.021.031.031.041.061.051.071.081.081.091.091.101.101.101.11Distillate071ElectricityResidual071NaturalGasSteamCoalIndustrial1.001.001.001.011.021.031.031.041.051.051.061.081.091.101.111.011.031.051.081.1121.151.191.221.261.291.321.351.381.411.441.021.061.101.151.201.251.291.341.401.441.491.541.581.621.671.041.071.101.121.141.171.201.231.271.301.341.391.431.461.491.031.041.041.101.141.161.181.171.171.161.241.331.291.271.29ElectricityDistillate0i]1ResidualOi]NaturalGasSteamCoal1.031.061.081.101.121.151.171.191.211.231.241.251.271.291.30MotorGasolineTransportation(Beginningofyear1995=1.00)ProjectedworldoilpriceindicesOi]PriceAssumption1.041.081.121.171.221.271.321.381.431.471.511.551.591.641.67B.Modified Uniform Present Value Discount Factors for Federal Use (Based on the FEMP and OMB discount rates and DOE-projected rates of change in energy prices,both of which exclude general price inflation) This section presents "modified"uniform present value (UPV'')discount factors for the 4 Census regions and for the United States.The factors are modified in the sense that they incorporate the annual rate of energy price changes currently projected by DOE for the years 1995-2023.There are two sets of tables:the "Ba"tables present UPV'factors based on the FEMP discount rate (3.0% real),and the "Bb"tables present UPV*factors based on two OMB discount rates (2.5%real for short-term study periods of 1 to 10 years,2.8%real for long-term study periods of 11 to 30 years). The factors presented in the "Ba"tables,based on the FEMP discount rate,are for calculating the present value of energy costs or savings accruing over 1 to 25 years and are to be used in life-cycle cost analyses of Federal energy conservation and renewable energy projects.Factors are reported in the "Ba"tables for 30 years to accommodate a planning/design/construction period of up to 5 years.(See "Examples of How to Use UPV'Factors"below for instructions on use with planning/design/construction periods.) The factors presented in the "Bb"tables,based on the OMB discount rates,are for calculating the present value of energy costs or savings accruing over 1 to 30 years and are to be used for life-cycle cost analysis of the energy component of Federal projects that are not primarily for conserving energy or providing renewable energy. Both sets of factors apply only to annual energy usage or savings that are the same each year over the service period that recur in uniform amounts.Refer to NIST Handbook 135 for evaluating annual energy amounts that vary in amount over time. The UPV'*factors incorporate rates of change in energy prices computed from prices projected by the Energy Information Administration (EIA)of the U.S.Department of Energy.Projections at the national level to the year 2010 are reported in the Annual Energy Outlook 1994 (DOE/EIA- 0383(94)).Assumptions underlying the model used by EIA to project energy prices to the year 2010 are presented in Supplement to the Annual Energy Outlook 1994 (DOE/EIA-0527(94)).EIA does not publish projections beyond the year 2010.Consequently,a separate methodology was used by EIA to generate energy prices from 2011 to 2030.For each region,energy prices by sector and fuel type are assumed to grow annually at the same average rate as the national price for the corresponding sector/fuel type during the period 1990-2010.The EIA price projections are not intended to forecast actual future prices,but rather what could happen under the conditions described in the report and the referenced documents. The formula for finding the present value (P)of future energy costs or savings is the following: N IP=Ax Yt)=A x UPV",,o rar o N where A,=base-year dollar cost of energy,i.e.,the annual quantity of energy times its price in today's dollars; t =counter used to designate each year,with t=1 for the year 1995; N =number of periods,e.g.years,over which energy costs or savings accrue; Liso4+1 =projected average fuel price index!given in Tables Ca-1 through Ca-5 for the year 1994+t and d =discount rate. Examples of How to Use UPV*Factors: UPV*(FEMP discount rate,no planning/design/construction period):To compute the present value of heating with distillate oil over 15 years for an energy-conserving design of a Federal office building in New Mexico,go to Table Ba-4,find the UPV'factor for commercial distillate for 15 years (14.65),and multiply the factor by the annual heating cost in today's dollars.The cost in "today's"dollars is the cost as of the date of analysis. UPV"(FEMP discount rate,with planning/design/construction period):(1)Find the UPV'factor for the combined lengths of the planning/design/construction period and the occupancy period (not to exceed 30 years),and (2)subtract from (1)the UPV'factor for the planning/design/construction period alone.The difference is the UPV"factor for the years over which energy costs or savings accrue.For example,suppose an energy-conserving Federal office building in New York is being designed.It is expected to have a planning/design/construction period of 5 years,after which it will be occupied for at least 25 years.To compute the present value of natural gas costs over 25 years of occupancy,go to Table Ba-1 and find the UPV*factors for commercial natural gas for 5 years (4.82)and for 30 years (24.75).The difference (19.93)is the UPV"factor for natural gas costs over 25 years,beginning 5 years hence.Multiply 19.93 by the annual natural gas cost in today's dollars to calculate the present value of natural gas costs over the study period. UPV"(OMB discount rates):To compute the present value of electricity costs over 30 years associated with the occupancy of a Federal office building in Ohio (where energy conservation is not a specific consideration in the LCC analysis),go to Table Bb-2,find the UPV*factor for commercial electricity for 30 years (21.81),and multiply by the annual electricity cost in today's dollars. NOTE:Because the discount rate used to calculate the Bb tables (OMB discount rate)is different for years 1-10 (2.5%)than for years 11-30 (2.8%),these factors cannot be used with a planning/design/construction period as shown above for the Ba tables (FEMP discount rate).Use the BLCC or DISCOUNT computer program for this purpose.For further explanation of the use of UPV"factors,see NIST Handbook 135. The data in the tables which follow are reported for the 4 Census regions and the U.S.average. Figure B-1 presents a map showing the states corresponding to the 4 Census regions.The Census regions do not include American Samoa,Canal Zone,Guam,Puerto Rico,Trust Territory of the Pacific Islands,or the Virgin Islands.Analysts of Federal projects in these areas should use data which are "reasonable under the circumstances,"and may refer to the tables with U.S.average data for guidance. 'For greater precision,the UPV*factors reported in the Ba and Bb tables were computed using the unrounded form of the indices given in Tables Ca-1 through Ca-S. 6 Projectedfuelpriceindices(excludinggeneralinflation),byend-usesectorandfueltype.TableCa-4,continued.Idaho,Montana,Nevada,NewMexico,Oregon,Utah,Washington,Wyoming)CensusRegion4(Alaska,Arizona,California,Colorado,Hawaii,ProjectedEnd-of-YearFuelPriceIndices201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024(BeginningofYear1995=1.00)SectorandFuelResidential1.221.231.241.251.271.281.291.301.311.321.341.351.361.371.391.361.381.391.411.431.441.461.481.501.521.531.551.571.591.611.371.391.411.431.451.471.491.511.531.551.581.601.621.641.671.301.321.341.351.371.391.411.431.451.471.491.511.531.551.57DistillateOilElectricityLPGNaturalGasCommercial1.17.1.17.1.171.171.171.171.171.171.171.171.181.181.181.181.181.531.551.581.601.631.651.681.711.731.761.791.821.851.881.911.691.731.781.821.861.911.962.012.062.112.162.212.272.322.381.361.3881.401.421.441.471.491.511.541.561.591.611.641.661.691.091.101.101.111.121.121.131.141.151.161.161.171.181.191.20ElectricityDistillateOi]ResidualOi]NaturalGasSteamCoalIndustrial1.031.041.041.041.051.051.061.061.071.071.081.081.081.091.091.431.451.481.501.531.551.581.611.641.661.691.721.751.781.811.661.711.751.801.851.901.952.012.062.122.172.232.292.362.421.441.471.501.531.561.591.631.661.691.731.761.801.841.871.911.191.201.211.221.231.251.261.271.291.301.311.321.341.351.36ElectricityDistillateOi]Residual011NaturalGasSteamCoal1.311.331.361.381.401.421.441.471.491.511.541.561.581.611.63MotorGasolineTransportation1.00)Oi]PriceAssumption1.701.721.751.771.801.821.841.871.891.921.941Projectedworldoi]priceindices(Beginningofyear1995961.992.012.03 'suoibaysnsuag Buimoys sejeig Pavuf eu}jodew'}-q@ainbig snsuay ay}jo nesing *S'N :BOINOS (¢ uoi6ay)HLNOS WN O2/xo" men zy"voy Le}e)°peid105 Ni 4 Aewer mon HO eusipul all 3N vain . 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suojzIe4 4UNODSLG xAdN "T-4d ALqeL (00'T = S661 seekJo buLuutbag) 6ST SST IST LbT 92°T bet €2°l 2271 90°T SOT SOT 90°T SOT €0°T cOt Z@1 S@t eft 6fT LTT 6ST €STt "Zbl tht wt Set SET c€t O€T821 S2TtI2T cOT T0T 00T O0T O0T OOT 4OT ZOT 80T OTT 601 OTT S¢'l O@T 61°T ZTT €LTt ett 4ST IST 9bTIevr 6€1 eT vel T€T62T "Let vet It €O°I cO'T TOT TOT T0°T T0'T OcTOTT STI €1'T ITT OLT cl I@ltO02 8tt ZIT STT pet ¢e2t I2T 611 LTT SIT €ltTItt OTT 60°T LOT 90°T L00¢ 9002 S002 002 £002 2002 S8DLPUL adLUd [LO PlyoM paydalougOL'T 80'TOLT601OcItLTTIt'T 80°T 66°0 66°0 SOT 0'T 801 LOT6I'I91TOl'T 80'T 00°T 66°090T90'T80T90'T401 90'T cOT co'T 666T 8661 (00°T = S661 4e9AJO BHuLuulbag) SODLPUT BDLudg [any weaA-Jo-pugz payeloug ey BT c< "det get dit ert 80°T (UOUIAA "Ppue{ST apoyYy 'BLueA[ASUUad'YO MAN 'AaSUAal MAN auLysduey MAN "S7JaSNYyIeSSeW'AULEW *3ND172aUU0)) [ UOLBay snsua vO'T uolydunssy adtug LLO vo'T OULLOSe JOOWuoLzeqodsued| 860 [PO weds C0'T sey jeunjyen v0'T LLQ LeNplsoy l0'T LtO SFLLLISA 660 A4L914998(9 Le Luysnpuy] COT [P09 Weszs co'T sey [eunjen v0'T LtQ LeNplsoy 10'T LtQ 99k|LL4SIG 66°0 A}L9 14992(3 LP LOUaWWO) c0'T sey jeunjen 10'T Qd1 10'T LtO99 LL9SLG 10'T A}L914999[3LPLjUSPLSoY "adky Lan} pue u0zes asn-pua Aq '(uOLze|JUL [e4aUaB BuLpn[ox9) sad.puL adLud fang paysefoug "T-e) aiqey PANO TLIOWOM OD= 20 13 of residential distillate in Wyoming at the end of 1994 (po,)?into the following formula.Then solveSSFAIANMOMTOONMOD Annual compound escalation rate for period i from the Cb tables (in decimal form); Number of years over which escalation rate e,occurs. oani&Ke)ne]wvnNON-& + © on ma = ad =) z ws o no]"+ oe 5v >-=S + > F as) = R > oO = Ge sxa ° 77) = = no) OQ < g©6s =8'c+ +a oo [or - Qo oO >= -_ = 2 hao) fot} i [=| 5 bey ®® Au 3 5x3s 3B ag, Q a, sll ll S1" Ul Wl =ES ao wf c) Q o 5 5 & a) & 3 Analysts of Federal projects in these areas should use data which are "reasonable under the circumstances,"and may refer to the tables with U.S.average data regions do not include American Samoa,Canal Zone,Guam,Puerto Rico,Trust Territory of the for guidance. The data in the tables which follow are reported for the 4 Census regions and the U.S.average.'Figure B-1 presents a map showing the states corresponding to the 4 Census regions.The Census Pacific Islands,or the Virgin Islands. 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STE? 19'¢e Ov22 c8Ie €9'T2 c0'12 98°02 1202 80°02 6€61 8c'6l 99°8T Zy8I cLLt 9'LT 48°91 8°91 00°91 96°ST élSl 60°ST be'vl ?cevlpeeteteTevel cyl IS*Tl SIT8S0T6SOT64°6 18'6 c8'8. =8'8vBL98°¢S8°9 889 £8°S 06'S 68'b cb'v c6E GbE voc =96'¢ 96°T 86'T66°0+66°0dd] LSIdWILN3QIS3Y "2-998 aLqel "Y66T YDseW JOSe A324 UNODSLP gHO IL' €¢oSé¢c6TéTe128902G00¢Ovelbl8IL0'818eZT89°9146STG¢SI{SvS6'T9314 2 The price at the end of year 1993 is the same as the price at the beginning of 1994.End-of- year 1993 is used here to maintain consistent notation. e 1914 0¢ €8°S¢ 62 IlSe 82 6€ye Le 99€¢ 9¢ C6oc S2 LIe¢ %4 IvTe 2 S902 cc £861 14 8061 02 62BT 61 BrZT 81 29°91 fal 78ST 9T 10ST SI 9Tvl 4! 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(v6-W JELNDULD GWO) "(OE-TT Sueak) ¥B°Z pue (OT-T SueeX) ¥G°2 =aeY JUNOIS!G 'adXy Lanj pue sodas asn-pua Aq 'uoLzeLeIsa adLud any uoj paysn[pe su0jdey QUNOISLG xAdN Tables Ca-1 through Ca-5 present projected average fuel price indices for the 4 Census regions and for the United States.These are multipliers which when applied to today's prices provide estimates of the corresponding future-year prices in constant base-year dollars (beginning of year 1995).The indices reflect end-of-year prices. Constant dollar prices are End-of-year indices are needed because energy prices are needed when discounting is performed with a real discount rate (i.e.,one which does not include discounted from the end of the year in calculating the UPV'*factors. general price inflation). Example of How to Use the Indices To estimate the price of industrial steam coal at the end of year 2005 in Connecticut,go to Table Ca-1,find the year 2005 index for industrial steam coal (1.05),and multiply by the price for industrial steam coal in Connecticut at the beginning of 1995. For further explanation of how to use these tables,see NIST Handbook 135. Tables Cb-1 through Cb-5 present the projected average fuel price escalation rates (percentage and for the United States.Note that these are "real”rates exclusive of general price inflation.Their change compounded annually)for seven selected periods from 1995 to 2025 for the 4 Census regions use results in prices expressed in constant dollars. The average fuel escalation rates consolidate the information provided by the indices in the Ca tables so that trends in projected price changes can be seen at a glance.They are provided primarily to accommodate those who use computer programs which require escalation rates as inputs. Unless there is a compelling reason to use escalation rates,it is recommended that you use the indices in the Ca tables when you need estimates of future-year energy prices,since the indices include year-to-year information rather than averages over a number of years. 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