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Home My WebLink AboutSusitna-Watana Hydro Report 14-21-REP v0.0 Susitna-Watana Hydroelectric Project Feasibility Report Draft Appendic B (con't) AEA11-022 July 2014 AEA CopyAEA Copy Prepared for: 813 West Northern Lights Blvd. Anchorage,AK 99503 SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. Report 14-21-REP v0.0 Susitna-Watana Hydroelectric Project Feasibility Report DRAFT Appendix B (con't) AEA11-022 Prepared by: 'Alaska Energy Authority MWH July 2014 ae) a> GMB»ENERGY AUTHORITY 1835 South Bragaw St.,Suite 350 Anchorage,AK 99508 13-1421-REP-073114 0°0Adau-bz-vbHMW-Z- SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. Susitna-Watana Hydroelectric Project Feasibility Report -Appendix B (con't) DRAFT July 2014 an ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA11-022 ©SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO WORK IN PROGRESS Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. Appendix B3 Crustal Source 14-01-TM_Interim Crustal Seismic Source Evaluation O Susitna-Watana Hydroelectric Project Alaska Energy Authority FERC Project No.14241 July 2014 -Z- SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. Technical Memorandum 14-01-TM v0.0 Susitna-Watana Hydroelectric Project Interim Crustal Seismic Source Evaluation AEA11-022 areas ---te Let . . . ot Y:ae .ae Sar ane =,cy teVette"os FS mai rcsOres vey aerat*i eee "af i ey rpggher ees thneweeyomeDibiheMai erg Prepared for:Prepared by: Alaska Energy Authority Fugro Consultants,Inc.for MWH 813 West Northern Lights Blvd.1777 Botelho Drive,Suite 262 Anchorage,AK 99503 Walnut Creek,CA 94596 January 20,2014 =ALASKA 16-1401-TM-012014 ME ENERGY AUTHORITY THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK The following individuals have been directly responsible for the preparation,review and approval of this Report. Prepared by:Justin Pearce,Cooper Brossy,Mark Zellman,Dean Ostenaa Reviewed by:Mike Bruen,Carolyn Randolph Loar,Jeff Bachhuber Approved by:MH|pErLae Michael Bruen,Geology,Geotechnical,Seismic Lead BEGML. Brian Sadden,Project Manager Approved by: Disclaimer This document was prepared for the exclusive use ofAEA and MWH as part of the engineering studies for the Susitna-Watana Hydroelectric Project,FERC Project No,14241,and contains information from MWH which may be confidential or proprietary.Any unauthorized use of the information contained herein is strictly prohibited and MWH shall not be liable for any use outside the intended and approved purpose. THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK -y ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 16-1401-TM-012014 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ....000....cccccccecteeseeeeeenneeeeeeensenaaeseeeeseeeesenecsaeesnaneseeeessoneneaeseneeneeeneseneeeeeees 1 1.INTRODUCTION Luo.cccccccccecsneeenneceneeeeeeeeseneneeaseaesnneneesescaneassssseceeeeseeeasgasaeseeenesaseeeeceeaeanaa 1 1.1 Background 000...eececssesessccesseeseecsseeescecsseecseecsaecsseessaeeeseecsaeessceneeessseseseecsaeseeesenseeeeseeeenseens l 1.2 Scope Of Work...eeeeseeeeseeseceeeeseesaesesseesessusaesseesesesussnsacsaeeaceacesesacessseseseesaessenseneeaeetens 2 2.APPROACH ........ccceceeeceeeesensestaeeeeeeceeeseeeeeceuseseeeeuooseseeseceeseessccenssesssacenssessecsenaseseceoueneneeeses 4 2.1 Geospatial Data 0...eecccsscesecsseeeseeenseesseeesasesaeecesecsscesaessseceacesseeesneseseseaeeeaaeeaserseerateease 5 2.2 Desktop Approach for Lineament Evaluation...eee eeseceeseceeeseeceeeeeeeaceesaaeeseneeeseeeeaees 6 2.2.1.Criteria for Selection of Lineaments Requiring Further Analysis .............ccceeeeeees 6 2.2.2 Criteria for Evaluation of Lineaments,Summer 2013 Field Investigation............9 3.FIELD DATA EVALUATION FRAMEWORK .............ccssscseeeeceeeseeesecenenseeeceesseeeseenenaeneenes 12 3.1 Post-Field Data Evaluation of DEM Data...eeeceeececceeseceseeeseeesseceaeeeeeecesecaeeeneseas 12 3.2 Role of Geomorphic Processes for Creating Apparent Lineaments..............::::cecceeteeees 13 3.2.1 Subglacial Channels and Basal Erosional Processes...........sceseecssceseceeeteeeeeeeeeeeees 14 3.2.2 SolifUction oo eeeesseecseneceseceesseecessecsscesecsececeseeessaeeessaeeesseeeseaeeesenseseeeeeeneteeaees 15 3.2.3.Other Processes and Landforms ...0.......eceeseceessceeeseeesseeeeeeneeeeaceeseeesenaneeeeateseaeeenees 15 3.3 Age Datums and Detectability Limits 0c ececeneesseceeneenaeescenseeceneesaesesseeseeeseetense 16 3.3.1 Quaternary Geology Model .......ceceeeeccssseceseeeessecseneecenneecsacesseeeceeaeeeesaeenseeensnees 16 4.OBSERVATIONS AND INTERPRETATIONS OF LINEAMENT GROUP6G...................19 4.1 Discussion of the Talkeetna Fault Trench Locations of WCC (1982)........eceeeeseceneeees 61 5.SUMMARY OF FINDINGS.............:.:scecceceeenseeeeeceeeeeseersseneeseeerenueneeeeesenssesereesoneserseeoaaaes 63 5.1 Unresolved Lineaments and Areas ..........ccccesecceeseccessreeesceceeseeeesaeeteneeeeaeecssueceseaeceeeeseaeeoes 65 6.REFERENCE G...........ccccccccccssssseceeseeeeeessseneneeaessenesnesaneceeesssaqaaaeeesseasecsseeseeseaoaeessseeseasenees 78 INTERIM DRAFT Page i 01/20/14 SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO yw.ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA11-022 16-1401-TM-012014 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. List of Tables Table 2-1.Principal Data Sets Utilized During the Lineament Mapping ...0.......eescescceeeseeteseceesseeesesseeaes 6 Table 2-2.Criteria for Delineating Lineament Group «0.0...eeeceseeeeesseeseeeeceaeenseeseneaeeesseneeeeesaseaesenenatens 7 Table 2-3.Desktop Evaluation Exclusion Criteria...cecscessecesscsssssesecsseecssescsnessseseeesseesesacceeesseeseeeeees 8 Table 2-4.Criteria for Desktop Geologic Evaluation of Lineament Group..........ecceeeseeeeeeeesenseeeneeeeeees 9 Table 2-5.Field Team Geologic Data Collection Guidance oo...ee cesseeseecssscecsseceseceeeeseeceseesessesseeeseees 10 Table 2-6.Criteria for Evaluation of Field Data .00.....eee ceeeseceesseeseseeeeteeeecessneeeesaeeseseerseaeeenseecssaeeessees 11 Table 5-1.Summary of Lineament Groups and Areas...ce eeesesecesceseeeeceeesnersnesaeseaceaeeneeeaeseseeseeeeees 64 Table 5-2.Lineament Data Summarized from Section 4.0.0...essessesesseeesseeeseeseeecneceneesereeseeseeesans 67 List of Figures Figure 1-1 Location Map Figure 1-2A Site Region Geology from TM-8 Figure 1-2B Site Region Geology Legend Figure 1-3 Land Ownership and Lineament Groups Figure 2-1 2013 GPS Tracks Figure 2-2 Example of Lineament Group Map Data Figure 2-3 Example of Lineament Group Photographs Figure 2-4 Example of Strip Maps Explanation Figure 2-5 Extent of Geospatial Data Figure 3-1 Sub-ice Channels Cut Through Interfluves,Scotland,and Example Sub-ice Channel Morphology Figure 3-2 Example Sub-ice Channels,Greenland Figure 3-3 Figure 3-4 Figure 4-1 Figure 4-2 Figure 4-3 Sub-ice Channels,Finger Lakes,New York Late Wisconsin Glacier Limits and Age Control WCC Trench T-1 Location Map Photographs of WCC Trench T-1 Site Maps and Photograph of WCC Trench T-2 Area INTERIM DRAFT Page ii 01/20/14 -Z-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY _AEA11-022SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO 46-1401-TM-012014 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. APPENDICES Appendix A:Strip Maps and Photographic Documentation of Lineament Data Presented in FCL (2013) Appendix B:Strip Maps and Photographic Documentation of Lineament Data for Lineaments Mapped by Reger et al.(1990) INTERIM DRAFT Page iii 01/20/14 -y SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA11-022 16-1401-TM-012014 Explanation of Abbreviations AEA AEIC DEM FCL FERC GIS GPS INSAR Alaska Energy Authority Alaska Earthquake Information Center Digital elevation model Fugro Consultants,Inc. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Geographic information system Global positioning system Interferometric synthetic aperture radar kiloannum (thousand years) kilometer last glacial maximum Light detection and ranging meter Million years Matanuska-Susitna Borough MWH Americas,Inc. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis Roller-compacted concrete Reservoir-triggered seismicity Technical memorandum United States Geological Survey Woodward Clyde Consultants Explanation of Units Measurements in this report were made using the International System of Units (SI),and converted to English system for reference.For the conversions,the measurements reported in the English system were rounded off for simplification purposes.Both sets of numbers are presented for the reader,except in cases of very small numbers that are shown only using SI (i.e.metric). INTERIM DRAFT Page iv 01/20/14 2 ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 16-1401-TM-012014 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The proposed Susitna-Watana Dam is a hydroelectric power development project planned for the upper Susitna River under the auspices of the Alaska Energy Authority (AEA)and the regulatory authority (among others)of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC).Under subcontract to MWH Americas (MWH),Fugro Consultants,Inc.(FCL)is investigating and evaluating the seismic hazard in support of engineering feasibility,and the licensing effort for the Susitna-Watana Hydroelectric Project. This draft technical memorandum presents part of the continued seismic evaluations associated with the proposed dam,specifically a lineament field evaluation. In 2011,Fugro Consultants,Inc.(FCL)prepared a preliminary seismic hazard source model and probabilistic ground motion assessment based on desktop review of prior studies and recent literature (FCL,2012).Subsequent to the preliminary seismic hazard ground motions assessment,FCL completed lineament mapping based on interpretation of recently acquired,detailed,topographic data (i.e.,INSAR-and LiDAR-derived DEM data).The mapped lineaments were assembled into lineament groups,and evaluated in the office using semi-qualitative criteria to reject or select lineament groups for further investigation during the summer field season of 2013 (TM-8;FCL,2013).In total,22 lineament groups and three broader lineament areas were advanced to the field investigation phase in summer of 2013. The primary objective of the summer 2013 lineament evaluation was to document and interpret available field evidence for the presence or absence of potential shallow crustal seismogenic sources (faults)along features identified through previous lineament mapping,and evaluate the features' significance with respect to Quaternary faulting and their potential as seismic sources of significance to the Susitna-Watana Dam seismic hazard evaluations. The lineaments inspected were assessed based on geomorphological characteristics observed in the field and field geologic relationships around the lineaments.As guidelines for the field teams conducting the evaluation of individual lineament groups,a series of questions were developed as an aid to focus observations made during the field investigation.To evaluate the field data,a set of questions and criteria similar to those used by FCL (2013)for evaluation of the desktop findings were developed.The principal objective of these criteria is to guide judgments regarding the lineaments'origins in order to evaluate their potential association with Quaternary faulting and potential crustal seismogenic sources. The 2013 field activities and lineament evaluations highlighted three topics with broad impacts across several aspects of the lineament evaluations.These topics include:1)insights gained from field investigation and evaluations on the scale and resolution of DEM data,2)identification of the dominant geomorphic processes acting to modify the landscape,and 3)updated regional age estimates for late INTERIM DRAFT Page ES-1 01/20/14 -Z-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY -AEA11-022SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO 46-1401-TM-012014 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. Quaternary landscapes and events in south-central Alaska.Interpretations and evaluations of most lineament groups and individual features within these lineament groups are linked to key principles or limitations posed by data or concepts associated with these topics. Synthesis of previous studies and research of Alaskan glacial chronologies coupled with field observations on the type and distribution of glacial constructional and erosion landforms suggests that there are three broad age categories within which the landscape may be viewed.These are,from youngest to oldest:late Holocene,mid-to early Holocene,and post-late Wisconsin period of the late Pleistocene.It was judged that the preponderance of surficial geologic deposits are in the mid-to-early Holocene category,and thus are the limiting age for detecting Quaternary deformation. All lineament groups targeted for 2013 investigation received a low-altitude aerial observation,and ground inspection was completed at selected locations where features of interest were identified and ground access was permitted'.Based on the work to-date and access restrictions,the lineament groups are placed into four categories. e Category I.Lineament groups in category I were not advanced for 2013 field observations (FCL,2013),but where convenient,brief fly-overs in 2013 visually confirmed their placement in category I,with no further work suggested. e Category II includes the majority of the lineament groups and features evaluated in 2013. Lineaments in this category are judged to be 1)dominantly erosional in origin,2)related to rock bedding or jointing,or 3)to a lesser extent,a result of constructional geomorphic processes. This category is subdivided in to categories Ha and IIb.Category Ila lineament groups are those which are not evidently associated with bedrock faults.Category IIb lineament groups that do appear to be associated with bedrock faults (Category IIb).For both categories no further work is suggested. e Category III consists of lineament groups which are unresolved due to unavailable ground access in 2013,and field activities and further evaluation are deferred.This category includes investigation sites most relevant to evaluations of surface faulting for the dam site area and includes the WCC trench T-1 area,Fog Creek area,and dam site and reservoir vicinities. e Category IV includes lineament groups that have defensible justification for consideration or inclusion as crustal seismic sources in an updated seismic source model:lineament group 27 'Ground access was limited to state and federal !ands.For lineament features on ANCSA lands,aerial observations were made during fly-overs however,no landings or ground access was undertaken INTERIM DRAFT Page ES-2 01/20/14 Zz ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY ;AEA11-022SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO 46-1401-TM-012014 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. (Sonona Creek fault)and the Castle Mountain fault extension are the two lineaments in this category.No further field work is suggested. At present,this document is an interim work-in-progress pending further "boots on the ground”access. It is anticipated that right-of-way access will be granted in 2014 to allow further investigation of geologic or geomorphic features at and near the dam site to complete the lineament evaluation,evaluate additional LiDAR data under pending acquisition,as well as address potential for fault rupture at the dam site.Accordingly,this document will be updated and finalized based on completion of the field investigations and evaluation of the remaining features. INTERIM DRAFT Page ES-3 01/20/14 ---Z-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 16-1401-TM-012014 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. 1.INTRODUCTION The proposed Susitna-Watana Dam is a hydroelectric power development project planned for the upper Susitna River under the auspices of the Alaska Energy Authority (AEA)and the regulatory authority (among others)of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC).The proposed dam would be constructed near about River Mile 184 on the Susitna River,north of the Talkeetna Mountains near the Fog Lakes area.Current concepts envision a RCC dam approximately 715 feet high,impounding a reservoir with a maximum water surface elevation at about 2,050 feet.At this elevation,the dam would impound a reservoir of approximately 5,170,000 acre-feet. MWH Americas (MWH)is the prime contractor providing engineering and geotechnical services to AEA for the project development and submittal of licensing documents to the FERC.Under subcontract to MWH,Fugro Consultants,Inc.(FCL)is investigating and evaluating the seismic hazard aspects in support of engineering feasibility and the licensing effort for the Susitna-Watana Hydroelectric Project. 1.1 Background In 2011,Fugro Consultants,Inc.(FCL)prepared a preliminary seismic hazard source model and ground motion assessment based on a desktop review of prior studies and recent literature (FCL,2012). Subsequent to the preliminary seismic hazard ground motions assessment,FCL interpreted recently acquired,detailed,topographic data (i.e.,INSAR and LiDAR)to examine the regional landscape,vis-a- vis digital elevation models (DEM),for evidence of potential lineaments,faults,or geomorphic landforms suggestive of Quaternary faulting.Limited field ground truthing,including low-altitude fly- overs,was performed in late summer of 2012 to inspect and verify features identified by the desktop- based lineament mapping.The mapped lineaments were assembled into lineament groups (Figure 1-1), and analyzed in the office using semi-qualitative criteria to select lineament groups for further investigation during the summer field season of 2013.This analysis included lineaments identified by WCC (1980,1982)for the two-dam scheme at Devil's Canyon and Watana as originally envisioned in the 1970s and 1980s.In total,22 lineament groups and three broader lineament areas were advanced to field investigation phase in the summer of 2013.The desktop lineament mapping data,analysis,and selection of lineament groups for further investigation is documented in TM-8 (FCL,2013),as is a discussion ofthe regional geologic map data (e.g.,Figures 1-2A and 1-2B). In June 2013,MWH was informed that AEA would not acquire access to Native Village Corporation (ANSCA)lands in 2013 (Figure 1-3).Principally,this resulted in deferral of field studies and investigations at and near the dam site area to summer of 2014 as field activities were limited to aerial INTERIM DRAFT Page 1 of 81 01/20/14 -Z-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA11-022SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO 1601401022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. inspection.However,low-altitude fly-overs were performed,and investigative field tasks for lineament evaluations (e.g.,soil pits)could be conducted on the ground on state and federal lands. This interim technical memorandum presents part of the continued seismic evaluations associated with the proposed dam,specifically lineament field evaluation.At present this document is a work-in- progress pending further ground access for field investigations and mapping.It is anticipated that right- of-way access will be granted in 2014 to allow further investigation of geologic or geomorphic features at and near the dam site to complete the lineament evaluation,as well as to address the potential for fault rupture at or near the dam site.Accordingly,this document will be updated as necessary based on the additional future data acquired.The 2013 lineament evaluation,field observations and judgments of lineament groups,as well as recommendations for potential 2014 geologic evaluation activities to complete the crustal seismic source evaluation are presented herein. 1.2 Scope of Work The scope of work for 2013 FCL investigations is defined under MWH Task Orders T10502190-99468- OM dated March 11,2013 and T10502190-99894-OM dated July 1,2013.In general,the focus of the studies is continuation of the crustal lineament evaluation.Specific technical activities within the scope of work include development of field plans and logistics,health and safety plan update,geologic mapping,seismometer station site characterization through collection of Vs30 measurements of the rock mass,field geologic inspection of lineaments,assessment of the lineament feature origin,analysis of lineaments as potential crustal earthquake sources of project significance,and identifying and developing recommendations for lineament features that warrant additional field geologic characterization to complete the crustal seismic source evaluation.Other activities specified in the task order include review of earthquake monitoring data,interim probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA)sensitivity analyses,development of seismic design criteria framework,and work planning studies in support of project licensing.Findings related to most of these activities are reported separately and are not described in this technical memorandum. As envisioned originally for the crustal lineament evaluation,the 2013 scope of work included wintertime field geologic mapping and fault evaluation at the dam site,a late springtime geologic reconnaissance of lineaments advanced from the desktop study (FCL,2013),and summertime field investigation of potential crustal seismic sources or fault rupture hazards (e.g.paleoseismic trenching), based on the results of the winter and springtime efforts.Because of the unanticipated field right-of- way access constraints,the full scope of work as originally envisioned was modified to optimize the summer 2013 field season investigation on state and federal lands while ground access to key areas at and near the dam site situated on private lands was resolved. INTERIM DRAFT Page 2 of 81 01/20/14 2 ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY ;AEA11-022SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO 46-1401-TM-012014 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. This interim technical memorandum presents part of the continued seismic evaluations associated with the proposed dam,specifically lineament field evaluation,and is a work-in-progress pending further ground access for field investigations and mapping.The objectives of this interim draft TM are to:(1) document and interpret available field evidence for the presence or absence of potential shallow crustal seismogenic sources (faults)along features identified through previous lineament mapping;(2)ascribe an origin to the lineaments identified,(3)if considered a fault,evaluate field evidence for late Quaternary faulting;and (4)develop a conceptual geo-chronologic model for Quaternary deposits or surfaces in the study area. INTERIM DRAFT Page 3 of 81 01/20/14 -Z-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 16-1401-TM-012014 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. 2.APPROACH The approach to the lineament evaluation,in general,consisted of desktop digital terrain mapping and analysis (i.e.,FCL,2013)complemented by field inspection and mapping in the summer of 2013 (this memorandum). The desktop lineament mapping and analysis report (TM-8;FCL,2013)describes the approach for mapping of individual lineaments across the Project area,100 km ( 62 miles)radius from the dam site, and assigning morphologic attributes to the individual lineaments.For that effort,criteria were established to provide a basis for delineating lineament groups (that is,aggregates of individual lineaments)that appear to have sufficiently extensive lateral continuity and geomorphic expression consistent with an origin by tectonic processes (FCL,2013).Additional criteria were developed to exclude lineament groups that were created by erosional or depositional processes (i.e.non-tectonic lineaments),lineament groups that are chiefly related to lithologic controls (i.e.,differential erosion), lineament groups that did not meet length and distance criteria,and lineaments that did not show consistent senses of displacement along strike.For completeness,the criteria used to identify and analyze lineament groups is reviewed below in Section 2.2.In total,22 lineament groups and three broader lineament areas were advanced to further field investigation and evaluation in summer of 2013 (FCL,2013). The 2013 field teams consisted of two,two-person groups and involved visual inspection of landscape and geomorphic features within lineament groups via low-altitude helicopter fly-overs and ground data collection in selected locations where access was permitted.The mapped lineament groups were visually inspected in the field to identify positive evidence for (or against)tectonic deformation of the Quaternary deposits (as present in the field)that may overlie,or project toward,the lineaments.The ground-based geologic data collection included walking of parts of mapped lineaments,photo documentation,exposure and logging of shallow soil pits,local mapping,collection of relevant structural measurements (strike,dip),and comparison of existing geologic mapping to field exposures and findings. Each field team used a ruggedized field laptop computer (Toughbook)with real time GPS tracking and GIS capabilities.The geologic database compiled by FCL during the efforts of FCL (2013)for the seismic studies was loaded onto each Toughbook with LiDAR and INSAR digital elevation and derivative surface models.This approach allowed for:(1)accurately locating position with respect to lineament features in the field in real time,and (2)real-time analyses of the existing geologic mapping and landscape models to the features observed in the field. The helicopter inspection was conducted chiefly with R-44 type aircraft.Other rotary aircraft were used to a lesser extent during the aerial inspection.Each ruggedized field laptop was carried in the helicopter INTERIM DRAFT Page 4 of 81 01/20/14 -Z-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 16-1401-TM-012014 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. with the GPS enabled to record a "track”for each team's course,position,and pattern for each flight (Figure 2-1).Minor satellite signal loss occurred during parts of the field investigation,but was supplemented with redundant auxiliary tracks collected by hand-held GPS units.Hand-held GPS units were primarily used to collect way points at selected locations of the ground investigation.The field tracks document the extent and location of low-altitude inspections,and way points document ground locations relevant to the geologic data collection. Photographs were taken during the low-altitude flyovers and while on the ground,and serve to document the field observations.The photographs were collected with a digital camera whose internal clock was synchronized with the hand-held GPS clock.This allowed geo-referencing of the photographs to the location where the photo was collected,and ensured collected photos were assigned to the correct place,feature,or lineament group.In some instances,inclement weather (rain,clouds) hindered quality of photo documentation.In other instances,glare or distortion from aircraft windows is apparent in the photographs. The lineament groups and larger areas are depicted in detail on a series of strip maps and plates on which relevant field-and office-generated geologic and geomorphic data are compiled and evaluated. Examples of this field data collection and synthesis effort are shown in Figures 2-2,2-3,and 2-4.(The map data are presented in-full in Appendices A and B and each lineament group is described below in Section 4.)The content of the strip maps and plates is customized for each lineament group and only the most the relevant field data and geologic map data are shown alongside the mapped lineaments with the most appropriate base imagery,given the local terrain and features of interest (e.g.,Figure 2-2). Figure 2-3 demonstrates the annotated field photographs that are linked to the maps while Figure 2-4 provides an example of an explanation sheet that accompanies the maps. 2.1 Geospatial Data The primary digital data sets utilized by FCL (2013)for the lineament mapping phase and during the 2013 field work consisted of several high-resolution topographic and aerial imagery datasets (Table 2- 1).Of the available data,the INSAR and LiDAR (Figure 2-5)were the most valuable due to their high resolution and broad coverage of areas of interest.INSAR coverage is complete for the entire region of study interest within about 100 km of the Susitna-Watana dam site as well as a broader region of south- central Alaska.LiDAR coverages are available for much more restricted areas,and near the Susitna- Watana dam site is generally limited to a narrow corridor along the Susitna River (Figure 2-5).Both INSAR and LiDAR can penetrate through vegetation cover to map the ground surface beneath and can be used to create a "bare earth”digital elevation model (DEM)of the landscape. In addition to the elevation data,two imagery datasets covered the study area:1)ortho-imagery (0.3 m) collected as part of the Matanuska-Susitna Borough (MatSu)LiDAR collection project,and 2)regional INTERIM DRAFT Page 5 of 81 01/20/14 Zz ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY .AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. Landsat scenes (30 m)(Table 2-1).The MatSu aerial imagery coverage has limited regional extent coincident with the extent of the MatSu LiDAR data (Figure 2-5).Both imagery datasets provide data in the visible spectrum.These imagery datasets were used to provide context and better understand landscape features displayed on the INSAR and LiDAR data and also navigate the terrain during the field work. Table 2-1.Principal Data Sets Utilized During the Lineament Mapping Data Cell Size Year Source Data collected by Intermap (50%)and Fugroh201INSARelevationdata(bare earth)5m ( 16 ft)010 EarthData.Inc.(FEDI)(50%)* MatSu LIDAR elevation data (bare earth)1m ( 3 ft)2011 Matanuska-Susitna Borough*t MatSu aerial imagery 0.3 m ( 1 ft)2010 Matanuska-Susitna Borough*t Landsat satellite imagery 30 m ( 100 ft)2010 NASA/USGSS *Data downloaded from the Geographic Information Network of Alaska (GINA)at the University of Alaska {For more information see:http://www.matsugov.us/it/2011-lidar-imagery-project §Downloaded from http://glovis.usgs.gov/ 2.2.Desktop Approach for Lineament Evaluation 2.2.1 Criteria for Selection of Lineaments Requiring Further Analysis FCL (2013)defined multiple acceptance criteria to serve as a basis for delineating potentially tectonically-relevant lineament groups (Table 2-2).In general,the lineament groups consisted of individual lineaments having consistently similar orientations that when aggregated together as a group, have a relatively appreciable length and which trend across terrain.Several criteria were established to serve as a relatively inclusive basis for delineating lineament groups within the study area.These criteria from FCL (2013)are described below (Table 2-2),and are presented in generally decreasing degree of confidence in lineament delineation as a potential crustal feature. INTERIM DRAFT Page 6 of 81 01/20/14 Zz SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA11-022 16-1401-TM-012014 Table 2-2.Criteria for Delineating Lineament Groups Criterion Reasoning Lineaments that are expressed in Quaternary deposits,that collectively aggregate to greater than about 10 km ( 6 miles)in length. Quaternary lineaments may strongly represent neotectonism. Lineaments that appear to represent potential extensions or continuations of known Quaternary faults. These lineaments may contribute to additional fault source length in ground motion calculations. Lineaments with possible tectonic geomorphologic evidence that are spatially associated with previously mapped faults or lineaments. Suggestive,but not conclusive,of neotectonism.Association with previously mapped faults or lineaments supports inference of structure. Lineaments with possible tectonic geomorphologic evidence that are not spatially associated with previously mapped faults/lineaments. Suggestive,but not conclusive,of neotectonism. Lineaments that aggregate to greater than 10 km ( 6 miles)in length. Length criterion is based on an approximately minimal structural length for a seismogenic source capable of ground rupture. Lineaments that are within 30 km ( 18 miles)from the proposed site and reservoir,and are greater than 20 km ( 12 miles)in aggregated length. Seismogenic features within 30 km ( 18 miles}of the site may contribute non-trivially to the ground motion calculations. The lineament groups identified through the inclusion criteria were subsequently screened using semi- objective exclusionary criteria (Table 2-3).The semi-objective criteria included length and distance restrictions,and also geologic process restrictions.The screening process thus required an examination of the identified lineament groups to assess the possible genesis of the features.The screening step eliminated lineaments that show strong evidence of being non-tectonic in origin (e.g.erosional, depositional),or those that likely would not appreciably contribute to the seismic hazard at the proposed dam site. INTERIM DRAFT Page 7 of 81 01/20/14 -zZ- SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA11-022 16-1401-TM-012014 Table 2-3.Desktop Evaluation Exclusion Criteria Criterion Reasoning Lineament groups that are greater than 100 km ( 62 miles) distance from the proposed dam site,excepting potential extensions of the Castle Mountain fault. Lineaments over 100 km ( 62 miles)distant would have very little contribution in hazard calculations.Potential extensions of the Castle Mountain fault may contribute to hazard calculations. Lineament groups that are greater than 70 km ( 43 miles)distance from the proposed site and less than 40 km ( 25 miles)aggregate length and with no apparent association to previously mapped structures. These lineament groups likely would not appreciably contribute to the hazard calculations,based on the Sonona Creek seismic source contribution in the preliminary PSHA (FCL,2012). Lineament groups that are greater than 30 km ( 18 miles)from the proposed dam site and less than 20 km ( 12 miles)in length are excluded from further analysis,where the group cannot be linked to an adjacent group. Based on the results of the preliminary PSHA (FCL,2012),it is likely that these lineament groups (if seismic sources)will not appreciably contribute to the hazard calculations. Lineament groups whose individual features are dominantly erosional and/or depositional with no apparent association with previously mapped faults or lineaments. Such lineaments are non-tectonic in origin and not considered further. Lineament groups with inconsistent expression of kinematics along strike. Inconsistent,contrasting,or discrepant lineament kinematics indicates low likelihood as a potential seismic source. A second,more subjective,evaluation process (Table 2-4)was applied by FCL (2013)to the remaining lineament groups,based on desktop geological examination of the data compiled on the lineament group strip map.This process served to identify potentially significant lineament groups that would need additional data and evaluation as part of the summer 2013 field studies. INTERIM DRAFT Page 8 of 81 01/20/14 wz. SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA11-022 16-1401-TM-012014 Table 2-4.Criteria for Desktop Geologic Evaluation of Lineament Group Criterion Reasoning Lineaments within groups that appear to have expression in Quaternary units or Quaternary landforms proceed to further analysis. Quaternary-age lineaments may _strongly neotectonism,if not erosional or depositional in origin. represent Lineament groups that transect or cut across different geologic units proceed to further analysis. Lineaments that are traceable across different geologic units imply crustal structure exists,as opposed to lineament genesis from lithology,bedding,or jointing. Lineaments within groups that may be tested for positive evidence of inactivity (e.g.,overlain by Tertiary volcanic units) proceed to further analysis. Determining inactivity via positive evidence will remove lineament group from further study. Lineament groups that demonstrate relative consistency of geomorphic expression and anticipated structural kinematics along strike proceed to further analysis. Consistent expression and structural style suggests a common genesis such as neotectonism because many other processes of formation change along the length of their occurrence. Lineament groups that are explainable in the context of the tectonic model proceed to further analysis. The tectonic model serves as a guide for anticipating orientation and sense of motion with respect to crustal stresses. 2.2.2 Criteria for Evaluation of Lineaments,Summer 2013 Field Investigation The lineaments inspected in the field during summer 2013 were assessed based on geomorphological characteristics observed in the field and geologic relationships around the lineaments.As guidelines for the field teams conducting the field investigation of individual lineament groups,a series of questions were developed prior to the field activities as an aid to focus observations and data collected during the field investigation.The intent was for the field teams to discuss and debate during the process of the lineament field evaluations as an ongoing field methodology to help ensure that field observations were sufficiently complete during the limited time available,often with no opportunities for revisitation. Table 2-5 lists these questions and the reasoning which supported the need for collecting the associated field data in order to assess each lineament in a relatively consistent fashion. INTERIM DRAFT Page 9 of 81 01/20/14 -Z- SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA11-022 16-1401-TM-012014 Table 2-5.Field Team Geologic Data Collection Guidance Field Data Reasoning/Comments ls a previously mapped bedrock fault structure coincident with or near the lineament group? Spatial proximity to or association with a previously mapped fault may support the lineament group having a tectonic origin. Was field evidence of fault structure observed (either directly or indirectly)? Direct evidence:exposure of shear zone or fault contacts observed. Indirect evidence:apparent rock type juxtapositions,alteration zones,color changes. What does the trend of the lineament across the topography imply about the geometry of the potential structure? Topographic expression provides a basis for defining the potential 3D geometry and potential style of faulting or constraints on potential non-tectonic origins. What types of deposits or geomorphic surfaces is the lineament expressed in? Quaternary glacial,lacustrine,alluvial,and colluvial deposits or bedrock units?Are the geomorphic surfaces constructional or erosional? What is the oldest deposit in which the lineament occurs?Age of deposit may constrain age of activity or limit of reasonable hypotheses of origin. What is the youngest deposit in which the lineament occurs?Age of deposit may constrain age of activity or limit of reasonable hypotheses of origin. Do the mapped lineaments transect or cut across different geologic units or landforms? Expression of lineament across multiple units or landforms may indicate continuity of geologic process. What is the scale (magnitude)of expression of the lineaments along strike? Expression that is proportionally consistent across different age portions of the landscape suggests continuity of process. Is the lineament discordant with glacial ice flow directions?Discordance with ice flow direction suggests origins other than ice flow. Is there field evidence that linear strain markers (such as moraine or ridge crests,esker ridges,terrace risers or treads, lake shorelines,drumlins or other ice scour-generated striae) are cross-cut,deformed or displaced?If deformed,what is the amount? Disruption of Quaternary strain markers may suggest a recent tectonic origin. What does the morphology of the lineament imply about the kinematics of a potential fault?What are the apparent structural kinematics needed to produce the morphology of the lineament? Kinematics need to be consistent along strike. To evaluate the field data and guide development of documentation for the evaluation of each lineament group,a set of questions and criteria similar to those used by FCL in TM-8 (FCL,2013)for evaluation of the desktop findings were developed (Table 2-6).In much the same way that the data collection guidelines shown in Table 2-5 were intended to enhance consistency and focus across the range of features visited in the field,the guidance which follows in Table 2-6 is intended to build those observations into a consistent set of discussions for documentation of the evaluation of each lineament group.The principal objective of these criteria is to guide judgments regarding the lineaments'origins in order to evaluate their potential association with Quaternary faulting and crustal seismogenic sources. INTERIM DRAFT Page 10 of 81 01/20/14 -y SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA11-022 16-1401-TM-012014 Table 2-6.Criteria for Evaluation of Field Data Criterion Reasoning Does the lineament show evidence of geomorphic expression in Quaternary deposits or landforms?What is the character of expression? Quaternary-age lineaments may strongly represent neotectonism,if not clearly of erosional or depositional in origin. Does the lineament group transect or cut across different geologic units or landforms? Lineaments that are traceable across different geologic units may indicate through-going crustal structure exists,as opposed to lineament genesis from local lithology,bedding,or jointing. Does the lineament group demonstrate relative consistency of geamorphic expression and apparent structural kinematics along strike? Expression that is proportionally consistent across different age portions of the landscape suggests continuity of process. Consistent expression and structural style suggests a common genesis such as neotectonism because many other processes of formation change along the length of their occurrence. Are the lineaments'apparent origins dominantly erosional and/or depositional?Such lineaments are likely non-tectonic in origin. Are the individual lineaments or lineament groups associated with previously mapped faults? Spatial proximity to or association with a previously mapped fault may support the lineament having a tectonic origin. INTERIM DRAFT Page 11 of 81 01/20/14 ---Z-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. 3.FIELD DATA EVALUATION FRAMEWORK The 2013 field activities and lineament evaluations revealed three topics with broad impacts across several aspects of the lineament evaluations.These topics include:1)insights gained from field investigation and evaluations on the scale and resolution of DEM data,2)identification of the dominant geomorphic processes acting to modify the landscape,and 3)updated regional age estimates for late Quaternary landscapes and events in south-central Alaska.Interpretations and evaluations of most lineament groups and individual features within these lineament groups are linked to key principles or limitations posed by data or concepts associated with these three topics. 3.1 Post-Field Data Evaluation of DEM Data As noted in Section 2.1,two sets of topographic data were used for the desktop lineament mapping: INSAR and LiDAR (FCL,2013).The INSAR (Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar)data covered the largest area for the project and has a 5 m ( 16 ft)horizontal cell-size (Table 2-1).The LIDAR,with a 1 m (-3 ft)horizontal cell-size,captured a smaller aerial extent that chiefly focused on the Susitna River corridor (Figure 2-5).Both INSAR and LiDAR can penetrate through vegetation cover to map the ground surface beneath and can be used to create a "bare earth”model of the landscape. The INSAR-derived DEM data was the basis for mapping lineaments at regional extents (e.g.the 100- km [ 62 miles]radius),and is a significant improvement in accuracy and detail of elevation as compared to any previously available regional data in south-central Alaska,and compared to DEM models derived from typical 1:24,000-scale topographic quadrangles throughout the mainland United States.However,after comparing the elevation model data along mapped lineaments to the geomorphic features observed on the ground during the field work,several trends became apparent.First,for example,what visually appear to be relatively small features on the INSAR data actually are rather large features in the field.Features such as slope breaks that appeared sharp and abrupt on hill shaded maps, generally were found to be larger than expected in overall size and relief with less abrupt and more rounded slope geometries.Considering that the investigation team's objective was to detect and identify potential earthquake-related geomorphic features (i.e.,fault rupture scarps),the INSAR-based lineament mapping (FCL,2013)may have over-mapped features that -in hindsight after two weeks of field investigation -likely would not be considered tectonic in origin.Nevertheless,all lineaments were mapped impartially,and subsequently tested via observation and reasoning. Secondly,some relatively small features were observed on the landscape and on the ground during the field investigation which were not captured by the INSAR data,and thus not identified as lineaments in FCL (2013).This condition is challenging to characterize because the ability of the INSAR to image small features seems to be a function of the features'relief relative to that of the landscape (small INTERIM DRAFT Page 12 of 81 01/20/14 -Z-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 16-1401-TM-012014 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. feature in flat terrain vs.small feature in a ravine or valley)and the features'inherent geomorphic expression (steeply sloped margins vs.gently sloped margins and also continuity or length).To mitigate this apparent resolution limitation,derivative surface elevation models from the bare earth model were analyzed during the field investigation using the ruggedized field laptop GIS platform. Slope maps (change of elevation),and slope of slope maps (change of slope),were used to highlight subtle changes in elevation or slope that accentuate features that may be generally non-apparent in traditional hillshade elevation maps.These derivative surface elevation models were locally helpful in identifying smaller landscape features such as solifluction scarps and terraces. Overall,the field investigation highlighted the previously known limitations of the INSAR based lineament mapping,notably that the base resolution of a 5 m ( 16 ft)DEM is still relatively coarse with respect to the scale of geomorphic features that might be expected to be associated with single earthquake surface ruptures.As noted in FCL (2012),surface rupture features associated with the 2002 Susitna Glacier fault rupture are subtle,but recognizable in the 5 m INSAR DEM data.Conversely,the previously mapped lineament along the Talkeetna fault trenched by WCC (1982)and discussed later in Section 4.1,is not resolved on the INSAR DEM,but does represent the type and scale of feature that would be of interest as a potential tectonic feature.When considered together with the role of active surface modification processes (discussed below in Section 3.2),these two features show that while there may be significant limits to the preservation of small tectonic features over time periods of thousands of years due to geomorphic surface modifications,such features can be stable and preserved in the Holocene landscape.Our field observations confirm that this limitation is likely most severe in areas of more irregular and high relief terrain,and somewhat less so in areas with more gentle,rounded, and uniform slopes.In short,the terrain and the style of faulting will together affect how apparent potential fault-derived features will be in the INSAR data. The scale of features mapped in areas where LIDAR DEM data are available is much finer,but no direct comparisons of the field scale of these features have been done to date,as most of the areas in which mapped features of potential interest occur,and where there is overlap of the INSAR and LiDAR data, were not available for ground access in 2013.Direct on-ground comparisons of mapped features in areas with data overlap may provide a basis for specific definition of the overall resolution of scale of features detectable through the mapping on the INSAR and LiDAR DEM data sets. 3.2 Role of Geomorphic Processes for Creating Apparent Lineaments Another insight stemming from the 2013 lineament field investigation is that a preponderance of the individual lineaments mapped within many of the lineament groups are the result of glacial and/or periglacial processes.Therefore,a discussion of the various geomorphic processes and resulting landforms is warranted in order to provide a context for their extensive presence on the landscape,as well as a technical basis for evaluation of lineament groups within the project area.Based on the field INTERIM DRAFT Page 13 of 81 01/20/14 Zz ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY .AEA11-022SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO 16-1401 eat 022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. observations,the dominant erosional features observed are common in glacial and periglacial environments and include:subglacial (sub-ice)channels carved into rock or soil;solifluction-related scarps and lobes;roche moutonee,drumlins,and nivation-related scarps.The erosion-related landforms tend to produce slope breaks and linear features that are similar in landscape expression to tectonically produced lineaments.These processes are briefly described below. 3.2.1 Subglacial Channels and Basal Erosional Processes Subglacial erosional processes appear to be significant factors in the origin of many of the larger lineament features identified through the desktop DEM analyses in FCL (2012).Unfortunately,the specific genesis of subglacial erosion that creates subglacial channels (also called meltwater channels)is generally poorly understood because their process of origination cannot be directly observed. Moreover,the classification and nomenclature for describing landforms and origins of various types of subglacial channels is relatively non-uniform and inconsistent,which further confounds clear terminology. In essence,subglacial channels may develop by eroding upward into ice,eroding downward into the underlying substrate,or a combination of both.Channels that erode upward into ice may eventually become plugged with sediment and,when the ice recedes,remain on the landscape as eskers. Subglacial channels that form by eroding downward under the ice into the underlying geologic substrate are relevant to this lineament evaluation because this action produces sub-linear erosional features on the landscape (Figures 3-1 to 3-3).Geomorphic characteristics common to subglacial channels include: an often abrupt beginning or termination in places where normal river channels do not start or end (e.g., across interfluves),uneven longitudinal profiles,channels that tend not to widen downstream,and steep channel side-walls oriented down slopes at a right angle to the contour lines (Gray,2001;Gao,2011). The geomorphic expression usually is a ravine that starts for seemingly no reason and then continues towards the bottom of a valley where it may terminate abruptly.Where the channels have formed in solid rock,the substrate rock typically is deeply incised or gorged,with narrow and steep-sided walls (Figure 3-2). The subglacial channels described above may also be referred to as a tunnel valley.A tunnel valley is a large,long,valley originally cut under the margin of former continental ice sheets (Figure 3-3; Jorgensen and Sandersen,2006;Gao,2011).The processes forming the valleys appear to advantageously occupy pre-existing (open and buried)valleys for the renewed erosion.Thus,old subglacial erosion pathways may have been re-used several times.The Finger Lakes in New York State are attributed to tunnel valley processes (Jorgensen and Sandersen,2006).Tunnel valleys appear in the technical literature under several terms,including tunnel channels,subglacial valleys,iceways,snake coils and linear incisions. INTERIM DRAFT Page 14 of 81 01/20/14 -Z-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY ;AEA11-022SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO 46-1401-TM-012014 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. Roche moutonnee (a.k.a.sheepback)landforms result from the passage of glacier ice over bedrock that creates an asymmetric erosional form as a result of abrasion on the up-ice side of the rock and plucking on the down-ice side (Ritter et al.,1995).This process generally produces isolated "knobs”of rock that may protrude through glacial drift or alluvial cover,and appear similar to a tectonically bounded or emplaced sliver because of its generally infrequent occurrence on the landscape. Drumlins form by ice-flow and substrate abrasion or scour,and typically are elongate,linear ridges oriented parallel to the direction of ice flow (Ritter et al.,1995).On a drumlin,the steep side is facing the approaching glacier,rather than trailing it,and thus may appear as an apparent truncation if the slope is appreciably steep. 3.2.2 Solifluction Solifluction (also called gelifluction)is a slow-rate hillslope mass wasting process that commonly occurs in periglacial environments during the thaw (1.e.,summer)season.It is distinct from the frost heave process.(Frost heave is a particle's movement perpendicular to slope because of volumetric ice expansion.)The term solifluction describes the gravity-driven downslope movement of water-saturated unconsolidated surface material (regolith)that flows down slopes of moderate to very low gradient because meltwater saturates the upper layers but cannot penetrate the frozen ground beneath (Bloom, 1988).The process produces arcuate erosional (and scarp-like)features up-slope as well as arcuate lobate constructional landforms on the downslope.The arcuate landforms tend to produce apparent slope breaks on the landscape that may be interpreted as potential fault-related features.In many cases, it appears that solifluction related scarp-like features and slope breaks of sufficient size to be identified and mapped in the INSAR based DEM were included as individual features within the lineament groups.These occurrences are most common in landscapes with more uniform and moderate slopes, where extensive areas of solifluction features have developed.Because of similarities at the outcrop scale of the size,morphology,and continuity of these features to surface rupture features associated with large tectonic earthquakes,evaluation of lineament groups and features in these types of landscapes poses significant challenges and added uncertainty for interpretations. 3.2.3 Other Processes and Landforms Nivation processes are difficult to define because the process includes both physical weathering coupled with hillslope erosion.In general,nivation is the acceleration and/or intensification of ground weathering and erosion associated with patches of snow that persist into the summer season in a periglacial environment (Bloom,1988).Snow patches that persist in sheltered (shaded)positions on hillslopes below the altitude of permanent snow fields may produce nivation depressions or "hollows.” The weathering becomes intensified in the saturated ground beneath a compacted snow patch (i.e.,névé: a young,granular type of snow which has been partially melted,refrozen and compacted yet precedes INTERIM DRAFT Page 15 of 81 01/20/14 -Z-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY .AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. the form of ice).The saturated snow mass produces a flow of water on the ground surface that erodes particles of soil beneath the snow.In addition,freezing and thawing of the snow mass can impart physical breakdown of soil as well as heave and downslope soil erosion processes. Nivation scarps and related geomorphic features are most common and apparent in the higher elevation portions of the landscape above treeline,most often in portions of valleys most recently occupied by glacial ice.In these areas,low-level aerial and ground observation facilitated differentiation of nivation- related landforms from landforms generated by other processes.Importantly,the identification of lineaments,whether nivation-related or not,in areas most recently occupied by glaciers implies a very young age.Many of the features ultimately interpreted as nivation-related were prominent in the DEM models,but found with field observations to be much larger than credible for features of tectonic origin given their occurrence within the youngest portions of the regional landscape. 3.3.Age Datums and Detectability Limits Understanding the Quaternary geologic history in the Susitna River basin region is relevant to understanding the geomorphic processes,resultant surficial geologic deposits,as well as relationships amongst deposits,both stratigraphically and chronologically.Quaternary stratigraphy and chronology form a basis to establish a geologic datum for evaluating tectonic (fault)activity during the late Quaternary. 3.3.1 Quaternary Geology Model At their maximum extent during the Quaternary,glacial ice caps coalesced and covered essentially the entire 100 km ( 62 miles)radius about the Susitna-Watana dam site (Wahrhaftig,1965;Hamilton, 1994;Kaufman et al.,2011).Even during the late Wisconsin or last glacial maximum (LGM)in south- central Alaska,recent regional compilations (Kaufman et al.,2011)show that the glacial extent was slightly restricted relative to the Quaternary maximum extent,but still only a few relatively high elevation or isolated areas within 100 km ( 62 miles)of the Susitna-Watana dam site remained ice free (Figure 3-4).Most remaining lower elevation areas in that region,such as the northwestern Copper River Basin,were largely occupied by proglacial lakes,confined by ice blockages between the mountain ice caps.In the Susitna-Watana dam site area,prior investigations (e.g.,Acres,1981,1982)document the stratigraphic record left by alternating ice advances and glacial lakes associated with the most recent glaciations. Age control for the late Wisconsin glacial advances in the Susitna-Watana dam region is limited,and largely based on recent cosmogenic dating of moraines and landforms on either side of the Alaska Range,north of Susitna-Watana dam site (Figure 3-4).Most recent age compilations (e.g.,Kaufman et al.,2011;Briner and Kaufman,2008)now suggest that the timing of Oxygen Isotope Stage 2 (LGM) INTERIM DRAFT Page 16 of 81 01/20/14 ---Z-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 16-1401-TM-012014 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. maximum advances in Alaska may have varied by thousands of years across the state,but retreat from the maximum extent in south-central Alaska likely started about 22 to 20 ka.Ice extent probably remained near the maximum extent for a few thousand years,with several readvances and periods of stabilization through about 15 ka.The last significant readvances of glaciers in the Alaska Range occurred between 14 to 12 ka,and 12 to 11 ka (Briner and Kaufman,2008),followed by rapid deglaciation. Near Anchorage and in the upper Cook Inlet,about 200 km ( 125 miles)to the southwest of the site,the late Wisconsin advance ts locally termed the Naptowne,and occurred between about 30 to 11 ka (Reger et al.,2007).During the maximum advance,ice from the Alaska Range flowed south and southeast and filled much of the Cook Inlet at about 23 ka.Ice remained near this limit until about 19 ka,then retreated gradually to less extensive advances or stillstands until about 17 ka,when there was significant retreat.A final re-advance,which built the Elmendorf moraine complex,began after 16 ka,and extended to about 11 ka. For fault and lineament evaluations,the ages for the regional glacial chronology imply that the vast majority of the landscape within about 100 km ( 62 miles)of Susitna-Watana dam site was covered beneath glacial ice or glacial lakes as late as about 15 ka,with a slow reduction in ice and lake extent through 12 to 11 ka.During this later period,significant ice and lakes remained in most of the glaciated valleys within the northern and central Talkeetna Mountains,and potentially included the last glacial advances of the Tsusena and Deadman Creek glacial lobes into the Susitna-Watana dam site vicinity, and intervals of glacial lakes in the Watana Creek area.Thus,geomorphic surfaces on which a record of potential surface faulting might be preserved prior to about 12 to 11 ka within about 100 km ( 62 miles) of the Susitna-Watana dam site were likely limited to isolated high peaks above the ice limits,and small ice-free areas above the limits of glacial lakes.Potential ice free areas during the later stages of the late Wisconsin advance lie mostly east of Watana Creek along either side of the Susitna River,and along the southeastern margin of the Talkeetna Mountains above the limits of Lake Ahtna in the Copper River Basin (Figure 3-4).As ice receded during the late Wisconsin advance,areas near Talkeetna,along the Chulitna River from Susitna River to the Broad Pass area,and the low hills and valleys southwest of the Alaska Range glaciers on Monihan Flats,but northeast of Susitna-Watana dam site may have been ice free closer to 15 ka. Following the last late Wisconsin advances at about 12 to 11 ka,there was rapid deglaciation and retreat of the glaciers of southern Alaska to high altitude limits and positions not far from present glacial extents (e.g.,Reger and Pinney,1997).Moraines and deposits just beyond the limits of current and recently active deposits have ages of less than 2 to |ka (e.g.,Dortch et al.,2010a),suggesting glacial extents during the Holocene have remained near present limits.Near the Susitna-Watana dam site,the rapid transition to non-glacial conditions is evidenced by several radiocarbon ages on peats and bog INTERIM DRAFT Page 17 of 81 01/20/14 -Z-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY .AEA11-022SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO 16-1401 cranes Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. deposits which began to accumulate in the post-glacial environment and which yield radiocarbon ages ranging up to about 11 to 10 ka (e.g.,WCC,1982;Reger et al.,1990).Radiocarbon ages from the lake deposits in Copper River Basin,suggest final lowering and drainage of the large glacial lake there during the same time period (Williams and Galloway,1986).Thus,beginning around 11 ka,large areas of the formerly ice and glacial lake-covered landscape began to stabilize and present geomorphic surfaces which might record faulting emerged.Published radiocarbon chronologies from archaeological studies indicate that some parts of the Upper Susitna area may have been habitable by 12 ka (Potter, 2008).The upper Susitna basin was first occupied by somewhere between 11.5 and 8 ka (Potter,2008). At least three Holocene tephra units are known to overlie glacial deposits in some areas near the Susitna-Watana dam site.These deposits are thought to have originated from eruptions in the Tordrillo Mountains to the southwest of the Watana site (Riehle et al.,1990).Three tephra units described near the Watana site are reported to be about mid to late Holocene age,based on radiocarbon analyses of 42 samples (Dixon et al.,1983,1985). For fault and lineament evaluations in the Susitna-Watana dam site region,the review of previous studies and research of Alaskan glacial chronologies,coupled with field observations of the type and distribution of glacial constructional and erosion landforms suggests that there are three broad age categories within which the landscape may be viewed.These are,from youngest to oldest:late Holocene,mid-to early Holocene,and post-late Wisconsin period of the late Pleistocene.Geomorphic surfaces and deposits associated with maximum phases of the late Wisconsin glaciation,and older glaciations,were generally either modified or buried by effects of the last phases of late Wisconsin glaciation.Thus,for geomorphic evaluations of the faults and lineaments in the region,these older deposits are generally of limited use because the surface expression of older faulting has been removed. INTERIM DRAFT Page 18 of 81 01/20/14 -Z-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 16-1401-TM-012014 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. 4.OBSERVATIONS AND INTERPRETATIONS OF LINEAMENT GROUPS The following section discusses each of the individual lineament groups and larger areas visited during the summer 2013 lineament investigation.The groups and larger areas are depicted in detail on a series of strip maps and plates on which relevant field and office geologic and geomorphic data are compiled and evaluated (Appendix A).The lineament groups identified for summer 2013 field work are shown on Appendix A,Figure A0.1,and a series of supporting figures'.The larger areas showing the Broad Pass fault,Clearwater Mountains,northeastern Castle Mountain fault,are shown on Plates A-BP,A- CWM,and A-CME,respectively.Appendix B contains a series of figures presenting map and field data for numerous photogeologic lineaments mapped by Reger et al.(1990)on the Healy A-3 Quadrangle (see Figure B-01 and discussion below).The strip maps and plates facilitate discussion and evaluation of the data collected in the field with respect to the features'relevance to the seismic hazard evaluation for the proposed Susitna-Watana dam site and potential needed further study. Lineament Group 1:Observations and Evaluation Lineament group |is an east-northeast-trending group of lineaments defined by a series of aligned, linear to sub-linear drainages and uphill-facing slope breaks,approximately 51 km ( 32 miles)north of the proposed Susitna-Watana dam site (Appendix A,Figures AQ.1,and Al.1).Individual mapped lineament feature lengths range from approximately 200 m to 4 km ( 650 feet to 2 miles),with an aggregate length of approximately 20 km ( 12 miles).No previously mapped faults or lineament features coincide with the group (Figure Al.1),and no evidence of fault structure was observed during low-level aerial investigation.Along the eastern portion of the group,the morphology of the lineaments and their very linear trend across the high relief terrain suggests that any potential fault structure that may exist would have a steep dip and apparently north-down,south-up sense of motion.The feature has a similar trend to the relatively proximal Denali fault (Figure A0.1).Discrete lineaments that make up the aggregate group occur in the Cretaceous Kahlitna flysch sequence (map unit KJf,Wilson et al., 1998)and to a lesser extent,Tertiary intrusives of felsic and intermediate composition (map unit Thf). Late Quaternary deposits along the Jack River,of late Wisconsin and post-glacial age intersect the projected trace of the group |lineaments near the center of the group 1 ellipse.These late Quaternary deposits show no apparent expression of the lineament (Figures Al.1 and A1.2). 2 Note that for ease of reference,Appendix A figure numbers correspond to lineament group numbers.For example,Figure A1.1 shows the extent of lineament group 1.The content of the strip maps and plates is customized for each lineament group and only the most the relevant geologic data are shown on the most appropriate base imagery,given the local terrain and features of interest.The explanation of symbols and relevant existing geologic mapping shown on the figures has been compiled into a series of explanation sheets (Figures A0.2,A0.3,A0.4,and AQ.5)that follow the index map of lineament groups and precedes the figures for lineament group 1. INTERIM DRAFT Page 19 of 81 01/20/14 Zz ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY .AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. Observations made during aerial field investigation suggest that the topographic expressions of the lineaments within the Cretaceous flysch (map unit KJf),in the eastern portion of the group,may be erosional features along unmapped bedrock structure,or possibly large sackung features.In either case, the absence of continuity of the individual lineaments from steep bedrock slopes into areas adjacent areas of lower slopes where Quaternary deposits are present is evidence of non-tectonic origin for these features.Although the lineament group has a similar trend to the Denali fault located about 18 km ( 11 miles)to the north,no previously mapped faults or lineament features coincide with the group (Figure Al-1),and no evidence of fault structure was observed during low-level aerial investigation.The lineaments that were identified in the western portion of group 1 are associated with a large,narrow, linear canyon,with no change in rock type or expression across the valley.Additionally,the lineament segments of Group |do not align across the Jack Creek drainage at larger (more detailed)map scales, suggesting the lineament group may represent two shorter sets of unrelated features.Based on the above evidence,the lineaments of group |are likely non-tectonic in origin,are judged to be primarily erosional and/or landslide features,and are not considered further. Lineament Group 2:Observations and Evaluation Lineament group 2 is an east-northeast-trending series of aligned,linear drainages,slope-breaks,and V- notched saddles (Figure A2.1)located approximately 46 km ( 29 miles)north-northwest of the proposed Susitna-Watana dam site (Figure A0.1).No previously mapped geologic faults or lineament features coincide with the lineaments of group 2,although the group has a similar trend to the relatively proximal Denali fault (located 25 km [ 15 miles]to the north-northwest).No evidence of fault structure was observed during low-level aerial investigation.Individual features range in length from a few hundred meters to approximately 2 km (<985 feet to 1 miles),with an aggregate length of approximately 12 km ( 7 miles).The youngest unit expressing lineament features are Tertiary volcanic rocks (map unit Tvu),and the oldest unit is the Cretaceous Kahlitna flysch (map unit KJf)sequence (Wilson et al.,1998;Figure A2.1).Individual lineaments within the group have a clear expression in both bedrock units.Mapped Quaternary surficial sediments,fluvial deposits in several unnamed drainages,a glacial moraine,and an alluvial fan deposit show no apparent deflection or deformation where overlying the projected trace of the lineament group (Figures A2.1 and A2.2).Glacial valley orientations are orthogonal,or sub-orthogonal to the lineament group,suggesting that Quaternary glacial processes likely had little role in the formation of the features.From west to east,the mapped linear segments present both down-to-the-north and down-to-the-south apparent senses of vertical deformation with a variable scale of vertical relief ranging from less than 10 m to about 50 m ( 33 to 164 ft). Discrete lineaments within group 2 occur primarily in Tertiary volcanic rocks (map unit Tvu),with one feature showing an apparent expression in both the Tertiary and Cretaceous rocks,and an additional aligned linear drainage expressed in Cretaceous rocks (Figure A2.1).No FCL mapped lineament from group 2 has expression in Quaternary units or Quaternary landforms based on field observations.As INTERIM DRAFT Page 20 of 81 01/20/14 Zw ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 16-1401-TM-012014 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. mapped,the Wilson et al.(1998)map compilation in this area is generalized and does not accurately depict the full extent of Quaternary surficial deposits (map unit Qs)along the position of FCL-mapped lineaments.Field investigation confirmed that Quaternary surficial deposits should be mapped through the floor of the Jack River valley and on both the north and south sides of the linear drainage shown in Figure A2.2 Photograph A)and that much of these deposits consist of till and other glacial deposits, likely of late Wisconsin age.In all instances,lineaments with clear expression in bedrock lose expression at contacts with Quaternary deposits and landforms.In the eastern portion of the lineament group,the lineament appears to consist of erosional scarps and linear drainage sections that follow the course of the Jack River.At a rectilinear bend in the river (near A on Figure A2.2),late Wisconsin glacial deposits in the valley bottom overlie the projected trace of the linear river segment,and did not show any expression indicative of deformation related to faulting.West of the Jack River,the lineament consists of discontinuous,but aligned linear slope breaks in Tertiary volcanic bedrock (map unit Tvu) separately by Quaternary units in which the lineament is not expressed.The western-most of the lineaments extends into KJf (Cretaceous Kahiltna flysch),based on the Wilson (1998)mapping,but is again separated from other lineaments by Quaternary units with no expression of the lineament.The limited and ambiguous expression of lineament features outside of the Tertiary volcanic rocks within the Cretaceous flysch,suggests that the observed trend may represent erosion along internal bedrock structure or features with the Tertiary volcanic rocks,as opposed to a through-going crustal structure. The geomorphic expression of this lineament group presents an inconsistent expression of apparent vertical displacement.Along the trace of this lineament group both down-to-the-north and apparent down-to-the-south sense of displacement is expressed.The case for lateral displacement is unlikely because of the absence of deflected drainages and other features related to lateral deformation (shutter ridges,sag ponds,etc.)along the projection of the lineament trend.Based on the field observations, notably the irregular characteristics of the lineaments along strike,lack of western continuity into the Cretaceous Kahiltna flysch units,and absence of expression in Quaternary units along the feature,the likelihood of a tectonic origin for the lineaments in group 2 is judged to be low and they are not considered further. Lineament Groups 3a &3b:Observations and Evaluation Lineament group 3a is an east-west trending group consisting of a series of linear to sub-linear aligned drainages,approximately 40 km ( 25 miles)northwest of the proposed Susitna-Watana dam site (Figure A3a.1).Lineament group 3b,east of group 3a,consists of east-west trending lineaments manifested by a series of aligned,linear to sub-linear drainages,slope-breaks,and steep V-shaped notched canyons, approximately 27 km ( 17 miles)north-northwest of the proposed dam site (Figure A3b.1). These two groups were considered for evaluation in summer 2013 largely because they share a generally similar orientation/trajectory on the landscape and they are spatially proximal,thus introducing the possibility that groups 3a and 3b could represent a through-going (i.e.linked)structure INTERIM DRAFT Page 21 of 81 01/20/14 Zz ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY _AEA11-022SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO 16-1401 e022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. of appreciable length.In fact,considered separately,group 3a and group 3b would have failed,or nearly failed,the lineament exclusionary criteria (Table 2-3).There are no previously mapped faults that coincide with either group 3a or group 3b lineament,however,each group is depicted (Clautice, 1990;Wilson,2009)with bedrock faults crossing each lineament group at high angles (Figures A3a.1 and A3b.1).The northeast trending fault in group 3b was not observed.The faults bounding Triassic metamorphic rocks (Trnm)in group 3a did appear to bracket rock types based on somewhat different surface textures. The trend of lineaments within group 3a across the topographic contours is linear,and does not follow a pattern expected from a dipping plane intersecting the ground surface.The lineaments are expressed in mapped undifferentiated Quaternary deposits (map unit Qs -likely post glacial age)as short linear gullies tributary to Crooked Creek along the eastern part of group 3a (Figure A3a.2),however no scarp- like feature was observed in the field during low-level aerial investigation.The lineaments also are expressed in Cretaceous Kahiltna flysch sequences (map unit KJf)as a raised ridge with an apparent color contrast on either side of the ridge (Photograph B,Figure A3a.2).However,this observation could not be extended laterally to the west;the adjacent,older,Triassic metamorphic rocks (map unit Trmm)show no expression of faulting.The 3a lineaments cross several different geologic units and landforms,and are largely discordant to the likely ice flow direction.The lineaments'morphology largely are v-shaped notches and slope breaks whose scale is variable along strike of the group.Near the Crooked Creek drainage,the lineaments have both small and moderate magnitude notches.Farther west,and into the Triassic rocks,the notches become relatively larger in magnitude.The magnitude of expression at the west end of group 3a is least of the entire group. The lineaments mapped in Quaternary (post-glacial)deposits along group 3a do not show neotectonic expression or offset.While the group 3a lineaments are mapped across several different geologic units, there is no apparent offset of mapped bedrock contacts along the trend of the lineaments.Most of the lineaments are interpreted to be either erosional in origin or related to slope processes due to their expression as short linear gulleys or presence on slopes where solifluction or nivation processes are dominant.The exception to this is the ridge in the Cretaceous Kahiltna flysch in which field observations found a color contrast (Figure A3a.2)that may be structurally-controlled,or may just as equally be stratigraphically controlled. The lineaments within group 3b are nearly entirely within Eocene granitics (map unit Tegr,Figure A3b.1).The lineaments within group 3b are mapped along the invert of v-shaped notches,and thus the trend of the lineaments across topographic contours is nearly orthogonal.No Quaternary deposits are mapped,but ground-based observations indicate that there are youthful (Holocene)deposits in cirques and drainage valleys,as well as rock glacier deposits (Figure A3b.2).Although these are very young deposits,there are no expression of lineaments in these deposits.The lineaments are somewhat oriented INTERIM DRAFT Page 22 of 81 01/20/14 Zz ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY .AEA11-022SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO 46-1404-TM-012014 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. parallel to ice flow direction along the eastern part of the group,but are positioned mostly in cirques and near ridgelines.Rock glaciers are present along the western part of group 3b,and interrupt the mapped lineaments without offset or deformation (Photograph D,Figure A3b.2).The morphology of the lineament is inconsistent along strike,showing north-facing slope breaks,south-facing slope breaks,as well as v-shaped notches. The lineaments show an absence of evidence of expression in the Quaternary drainages,and in particular,the toes of rock glaciers where they interrupt the mapped lineaments.While the rock glaciers are likely no older than post-glacial,they may also be as young as early Holocene.Given the relatively large expression of the north-facing slope break along the eastern part of group 3b,it is reasonable to expect some signature in the Quaternary deposits despite their potential youthfulness. Overall,lineaments within groups 3a and 3b are not associated with previously mapped faults,are predominantly erosional in origin,and show no evidence of offsetting Quaternary deposits.When considered individually,there is little evidence to support the lineaments as a fault structure.When considered collectively,there is little similarity in their landscape expression across the two groups to support positive interpretation of a linked,through-going crustal structure.Lineament groups 3a and 3b are interpreted to not represent an active crustal structure and no further work is deemed necessary. Lineament Group 4:Observations and Evaluation This lineament group was not advanced for field work in 2013 based on the desktop analysis of FCL (2013)and strip maps for this group are not included herein (Figure AO).However,a limited number of low-altitude fly-overs in 2013 appear to confirm the desktop conclusion that the group 4 features are pre-Quaternary.Rock-type contrasts were observed across the previously mapped NE-trending thrust fault but no prominent tectonic geomorphology to suggest Quaternary activity was observed along strike in post-glacial surficial deposits nor in the bedrock. Lineament Group 5:Observations and Evaluation Lineament group 5 is an east-northeast trending lineament group defined by aligned V-shaped troughs, side-hill benches,and slope breaks,approximately 40 km ( 25 miles)west-northwest of the proposed Susitna-Watana dam site,near Chulitna Pass (Figures A5-1.1 and A5-1.2).The eastern extent of the lineament group coincides with a previously mapped,unnamed lineament feature (Wilson et al.,2009), however lineament group 5 does not coincide with any previously mapped faults (FCL,2013).Low altitude aerial observation found no evidence for the presence of a fault structure along group 5.Along its eastern extent,the trend of individual lineament groups is generally parallel to ice-flow direction expressed as fluted and grooved topography in a general east-west orientation.The trend of the lineaments across the topography is near straight,implying a vertical to steep geometry of a hypothetical structure.The lineaments primarily are expressed in Cretaceous turbidite rocks of the Kahiltna flysch INTERIM DRAFT Page 23 of 81 01/20/14 -Z-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY .AEA11-022SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO 16-1401cpannpeaClean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. sequence (map unit KJs)and,to a lesser extent,Tertiary granitics and Quaternary (probable late Wisconsin)glacial sediments.While the lineaments traverse different age rocks and sediments,the lineaments mapped in Quaternary sediments are restricted to likely floodplain or terrace deposits of the Indian River that could be as young as Holocene and coincide with terrace risers (Figure A5-2.2).The magnitude of the lineaments expression along strike is variable,with greater expression in the older bedrock units and substantively less expressed within the Quaternary units.The lineaments within the Quaternary deposits are relatively concordant with the ice-flow direction as expressed in the ice-scoured surfaces.There is no evidence that the ice-scoured surfaces are cross-cut or otherwise offset by the lineaments.Along the eastern extent of the group,the lineaments'morphologic expression as side-hill benches would imply an extensional-type kinematics (i.e.,down-to-the-south);along the western extent the morphologic expression varies as both uphill and downhill facing scarps,linear grooves,and drainages that would imply a translational-type kinematics. Low altitude aerial field observation revealed no evidence of lineament expression within the Quaternary deposits or surfaces.While the lineament group does traverse different geologic units and landforms suggesting a continuity of structure,the lineaments show an inconsistent kinematic expression along strike (i.e.,extensional on the east,translational on the west)within the same rock unit (Cretaceous turbidites;map unit KJs)that tends to not support the presence of a tectonic structure for creating the lineaments.The lineament group is associated with a previously mapped lineament along the eastern extent,however,the lineament does not continue westerly past Indian Creek drainage. Given the above,it is likely that individual lineaments apparent origin is dominantly erosional.Along the western part of the group near Little Coal Creek,field observations indicated that a side-hill bench and linear drainage (Figure A5-2.2)likely are the result of bedded turbidite sediments dipping into the hillslope (Figure A5-1.1),with differential weathering accentuating the erosion features.The lineaments in the Quaternary sediments of Indian River valley appear to be the result of erosion along generally west-flowing creeks that are dissecting the geomorphic surfaces creating apparent scarps in the fluvial deposits.From the above,it is judged that the lineaments along group 5 are the result of bedding orientations in the Cretaceous turbidite units and elsewhere from fluvial or glacial erosion,and do not represent a tectonic fault. Lineament Group 6:Observations and Evaluation The northeast-trending linear drainage of Watana Creek is a prominent landscape feature;this and smaller lineaments along Watana Creek are grouped as Lineament 6 (Figure A6.1).The lineaments primarily define a northeast-trending,linear to sub-linear drainage,approximately 14 km ( 9 miles)east of the proposed Susitna-Watana dam site.Traces of the Talkeetna fault previously-mapped (as concealed and/or inferred)pass within the ellipse defining group 6.In addition,Watana Creek was the target of focused project-specific geologic mapping and data collection by WCC (1980,1982)and Acres (1981,1982).However,the previous studies result in a fair degree of disagreement as to the INTERIM DRAFT Page 24 of 81 01/20/14 Ze ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY .AEA11-022SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO 46-1401-TM-012014 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. (inferred)location and character of the Talkeetna fault in the area of lineament group 6.Importantly, the published map traces (as concealed and/or inferred)are placed along the western upland margin of Watana Creek,and are not shown as crossing or intersecting Watana Creek (Figure A6.1).During multiple low altitude overflights,field evidence of a fault structure was not observed along or in the immediate vicinity of lineament group 6,and no evidence was observed along the projection of the fault trace across Delusion Creek.A shear zone is mapped near the mouth of Watana Creek (Orange line in Acres mapping shown in Figure A6.1),and may coincide with an observed juxtaposition of Triassic basalt and inferred Tertiary sediment (Photograph A in Figure A6.2).However,the trend and extent of the shear zone do not seem to correspond to other map traces of the Talkeetna fault.Because the lineaments are chiefly mapped along Watana Creek itself,as well as linear drainages tributary to the creek,the trend of the lineaments as mapped reveals little about hypothetical fault structure geometries. The lineaments are expressed as linear drainages or erosional gullies oriented sub-orthogonal to the Talkeetna fault trace(s),and principally are developed in late Quaternary glacial drift (till)and glacio- lacustrine (lake)deposits.Lineament group 6 occurs at a high angle to regional ice-flow direction, suggesting that Quaternary glacial processes had little influence on the formation of the feature.The lineaments themselves are thus attributed to surface erosion and drainage development on the Quaternary upland surface,with one exception.A linear feature of about 700 m length ( 2,300 ft)with distinctly positive relief was observed and mapped as a lineament segment near where Watana Creek turns easterly into the uplands.This feature,parallel and nearby to the inferred locations of the Talkeetna fault,was inspected from the air and on the ground,and a shallow test pit was opened to examine the stratigraphy to better understand the origin of the feature (Figures A6.1 and A6.4).The shallow subsurface texture generally was sand with gravel,grading upward into silt,and was interpreted as an esker landform.Tephra deposits (wind-laid volcanic ash)were observed near the top of the pit, and three different tephras could be present.Discussions with project archaeologists and review of published literature indicate that the tephras likely represent the Mt.Hayes,Watana,and possibly the Oshetna tephra deposits (Dixon,1990).It is interpreted that the esker is at least a few to several thousand years old based on the presence of the tephras,but an upper age limit is undetermined at present. There is an appreciable lack of mapped lineaments coincident with the (concealed and/or inferred) locations and orientations of published Talkeetna fault traces,even within LIDAR imagery area.The LiDAR-derived DEM data reveal an absence of scarp-like features along the map traces in Quaternary surfaces (Figure A6.1)that was confirmed during field investigation (Figure A6.2 and A6.3).The INSAR-derived DEM data also reveal an absence of lineaments in the post-glacial valley bottom sediments to the northeast of GPS waypoints O17 and 183.Field observations of Quaternary stratigraphic outcrops along Watana Creek suggest that the contact between the overlying lake and underlying till deposits is planar,unbroken,and apparently untilted (Figure A6.2).A prominent ridge consisting of bedded Tertiary sediments (map unit Tsu)appear as gently northwest-dipping (A6.3). INTERIM DRAFT Page 25 of 81 01/20/14 Za ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY .AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. This is generally consistent with structural data collected in Oligocene (Tertiary)outcrops along Watana Creek by WCC (1982)that was used as a basis to argue for northeast-southwest compression and related flexural deformation of the Tertiary units.Though gently northwest-dipping,the stratigraphy of the ridge appears undisrupted along its length and provides additional evidence that the Talkeetna fault likely does not run down the Watana Creek canyon.This style of deformation is inconsistent with reverse thrusting along this part of the Talkeenta fault while regional stress field data allows for the potential reactivation of this lineament as a northeast-oriented thrust fault.The lineaments mapped within group 6 are judged to be the result of erosion of tributary drainages and fluvial erosion to create terrace risers along the creeks and are not likely tectonically-related.Further,there is an absence of tectonic geomorphology along the inferred locations of the Talkeetna fault in Quaternary deposits and surfaces present along the uplands adjacent to Watana Creek.However,additional LIDAR data is being collected to provide complete coverage for the area of lineament group 6 and the concealed and/or inferred locations of the mapped Talkeetna thrust fault.Additional future work for lineament group 6 should include review of these new high-resolution data to confirm that the current interpretations are still supported. Lineament Group 7:Observations and Evaluation Lineament group 7 is a northeast-oriented lineament group defined by an aligned series of linear to sub- linear drainages,faceted ridges,and saddles (Figure A7.1),approximately 28 km ( 17 miles)east of the proposed Susitna-Watana dam site (Figure AO.1).Mapped bedrock fault structures are depicted within the lineament group by some,but not all existing maps (FCL,2013).For example,mapping by Kline et al.(1990)shows a shear zone within lineament group 7.One of the bedrock faults juxtaposing Triassic (Nikolai)greenstone (map unit Trn)against Paleozoic volcanic rocks (map unit Pv)was indirectly observed as a color and vegetation change coincident with a topographic notch in the ridgeline (Photograph A,Figure A7.2).These are the oldest rocks within which the lineaments occur.The youngest deposits that the lineaments are mapped in are latest Pleistocene (late Wisconsin?);the lineaments transect young valley floor glacial sediments as well as elevated bedrock ridgelines.The topographic expression of the individual lineaments implies a high angle to near vertical orientation for a fault because they cut steeply across topographic contours.Along the northern part of the group,the lineaments are not mapped nor are expressed in the glacial valleys;along the southern part of the group the lineaments are oriented along the drainage direction toward the Susitna River.Aerial investigation revealed no field evidence that linear strain markers were deformed or displaced,however the glacial sediments are from rock glacier processes,and few older landforms such as moraines,eskers,or terraces were observed along this group.The expression of the lineament is inconsistent along strike with an apparent stronger expression where mapped along fluvial drainages,and no expression in WNW- oriented cirque-floors or valleys.An additional lineament feature less than 2 km [ 1 mile]away from the group 7 also was inspected,although this was not formally included as part of group 7.This feature trends slightly west of north,and is expressed as a large notch near rock glacier deposits.Low altitude INTERIM DRAFT Page 26 of 81 01/20/14 Zz ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 16-1401-TM-012014 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. fly-overs allowed a visual inspection of the notch that was estimated to be about 15 meters tall ( 50 ft). No corresponding notch or groove was observed in the ridgeline on projection to the north,thus the groove was probably created by non-tectonic surface processes. Lineament group 7 does not show consistent field expression in Quaternary deposits or landforms.The largest magnitude relief along the lineament is along the south-flowing drainages,and relief is not expressed topographically across the WNW trending cirque valley floors.Because the lineament expression in Quaternary deposits is chiefly linear gullies (erosion)with no apparent difference in relief across the gulley,the expression does not suggest either normal or reverse-type faulting.A translational kinematic sense of motion cannot be ruled out;however there is little along-strike expression to assess the sense or magnitude of potential relative lateral motion.There are previously mapped faults along the mapped lineament (Wilson et al.,2009;Figure A7.1).However,there are large scale topographic changes (i.e.reverses)along the length of the fault (and lineament)that leads to an inconsistency in location,magnitude,and type of lineament expression.These inconsistencies,coupled with the fact that the Quaternary deposits in the valley floors are not disrupted,strongly indicates that erosional process of creek incision and downcutting into surface deposits along the south-flowing drainages are likely responsible for creating the mapped lineament feature.Where mapped in bedrock,lineaments of group 7 generally coincide with mapped bedrock structures within fault-line-valleys but lineaments in late Quaternary deposits are inconsistently expressed and likely relate to processes of erosion.No evidence of Quaternary deformation along the mapped lineaments was observed and no further work is deemed necessary. Lineament Group 8:Observations and Evaluation The lineaments of group 8 are north-northwest-oriented features expressed topographically as aligned V-and U-shaped,linear to sub-linear drainages,aligned with several discontinuous slope breaks and linear fronts (Figures A8-1.1 and A8-2.2),approximately 38 km ( 24 miles)west of the proposed dam site (Figure AO.1).The lineament group coincides with a north-trending promontory around which the Susitna River makes a prominent bend in course (Figure A8-1.1).The middle portion of lineament group coincides with an unnamed,inferred fault mapped by Wilson et al.(2009)that juxtaposes Tertiary undivided volcanic rocks (map unit Tvu)against Paleocene granite (map unit Tpgr)and also granodiorite (map unit Tgd)against turbidites of the Kahiltna flysch (unit KJs)(Figure A8-2.1).WCC lineament feature KD5-44 also coincides with lineament group 8 (FCL,2013).WCC described their feature KD5-44 as a linear stream valley north of the Susitna River,and south of the Susitna River as a linear valley (Cheechako Creek and a tributary creek)and "a shallow,broad,linear depression on the upland plateau...”(WCC,1982).No direct evidence of fault exposures were observed during ground and low level aerial investigation but indirect evidence in the form of changes in lithology across the linear valley was observed near the middle of the lineament group (Photograph C,Figure A8-2.2).The linear trend of the lineament group across the terrain suggests any potential fault that may exist has a INTERIM DRAFT Page 27 of 81 01/20/14 -Z-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY ;AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. very steep to near-vertical dip.The lineaments are expressed in ice-scoured bedrock uplands and a thin cover of glacial and colluvial deposits subject to solifluction.The bedrock ranges in age from Cretaceous-Jurassic flysch (map unit KJf)to Tertiary volcanics (map unit Tvu).The glacial deposits are likely latest Pleistocene to early Holocene ( 11 to 12 ka)in age while the colluvium is latest Holocene to modern in age.The mapped lineaments transect across several different bedrock units (Figure A8-1.1 and A8-2.1).The magnitude of expression ranges from none in broad,flat-lying terrain,to 1-to 2-m- high (3-to 6-ft)scarps in solifluction-prone colluvial slopes,to deeply incised linear streams and 50-to 100-m-high ( 164 to 328 ft)linear fronts (Figures A8-2.2 and A8-2.3).The lineament group lies roughly perpendicular to the direction of glacial striae.Glacial striae north of the Susitna River do not appear consistently deformed or displaced across the trend of the lineament and,although the Susitna River does take a tight bend-in-course along the projection of some of the mapped lineaments,several small streams that cross the lineaments near GPS waypoints 177 and 195 are not consistently laterally offset or deflected (Figure A8-2.1).Aerial investigation did reveal the oxidized mafic dike on the northern canyon wall of the Susitna River that WCC (1982)observed projecting across the observed lineament trend but discovered the same ambiguous and poor exposure conditions described by WCC. The 2013 aerial investigation efforts discovered no new evidence to confirm or refute WCC's (1982) interpretation that the dike is not truncated by the linear drainage (FigureA8-2.3);ground access may be required.Based on the preponderance of east-facing bedrock escarpments,the morphology of the lineament group overall suggests down-to-the-east or dip-slip motion on high-angle faults,but a few west-facing escarpments do exist.In addition,mapped fault relations that juxtapose units (Wilson et al., 2009)along the middle of the lineament group are not entirely consistent with the contact of turbidite rocks of the Cretaceous Kahiltna flysch (map unit KJs)and Paleocene granite (map unit Tpgr)being apparently undeformed across the northern portion of the lineament (Figure A8.1). Portions of lineament group 8 are expressed in very thin Quaternary (i.e.,latest Holocene)colluvial and glacial deposits that overlie bedrock,but the lineaments are not consistently expressed in Quaternary strain markers (1.e.,stream channels).In two locations,on the north side of Susitna River and along its southern extent,individual lineaments of the group appear to be overprinted by glacial or flood-derived striae (Figure A8-1.1 and A8-2.1).The orthogonal orientation ofthe lineaments to the regional ice-flow direction suggests that most of the lineament features likely do not result from ice scour or abrasion. However,other ice-related processes such as plucking might explain some of the short lineaments north of the Susitna River where the small!east-facing (and up-ice stream-facing)knobs of turbidite rocks of the Cretaceous Kahiltna flysch (map unit KJs)might have been preferentially erodible due to the highly bedded nature of the unit.Lineament group 8 does transect different mapped geologic units but does not exhibit relative consistency of geomorphic expression along strike.For example,in the middle of the group,both east-and west-facing topographic scarps in undivided Tertiary volcanics (map unit Tvu) range up to 50 to 200 m high ( 164 to 656 ft)but apparent scarps in thin colluvium overlying Tertiary granodiorite (unit Tgd)near GPS waypoints 177 and 195 are less than several meters high (Figure A8- INTERIM DRAFT Page 28 of 81 01/20/14 -Z-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 16-1401-TM-012014 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. 2.2 and A8-2.3).Furthermore,the lack of spatially-connected and through-going lineaments across the ice-striated terrain north of the Susitna River is inconsistent with the magnitude of expression the deeply-incised linear streams and tall linear fronts to the south.In addition,the apparent structural kinematics (dip-slip)based on mapped contact relations compiled by Wilson et al.(2009)for the middle and southern portion of the group are not consistent with the undeformed contact relations between turbidite rocks of the Cretaceous Kahiltna flysch (map unit KJs)and Paleocene granite (map unit Tpegr) near the Susitna River and also the lack of deformation in turbidite rocks (map unit KJs)north of the river.Lineament group 8 is spatially coincident with previously mapped lineaments (feature KD5-44 of WCC (1982))and faults (Wilson et al.,2009)but making kinematic sense of the mapped fault and unit contact relations is challenging.No positive evidence of active tectonism was observed and the discrepancy in magnitude in the apparent tectonic geomorphology along the group is inconsistent with a genesis by active faulting;a fault capable of producing topographic displacement on the order of 50 or more meters ( 164 ft)should leave a more consistent,through-going pattern of deformation on the landscape.Overall,the evidence supports the presence of a fault-line-scarp (an erosional feature aligned with a mapped fault)along the middle and southern portions of group 8 where glacial erosion may have preferentially eroded along pre-existing faults or lithologic contacts. Lineament Group 9:Observations and Evaluation Lineament group 9 consists of north-northwest oriented features expressed principally as a prominent V-shaped linear drainage greater than 5 km ( 3 miles)in length,along with smaller,sub-linear aligned drainages,aligned knobs,and short east-facing slope breaks (Figures A9-1.1 and A9-2.1 through A9- 2.4)approximately 31 km ( 19 miles)west of the proposed dam site (Figure A0.1).The southern portion of the lineament group coincides to an inferred fault mapped by Wilson et al.(2009)that lies within the prominent linear V-shaped drainage and juxtaposes Paleocene granitics (map unit Tpgr) against turbidite rocks of the Cretaceous Kahiltna flysch (map unit KJs)(Figure A9-2.1).The lineament group also coincides with WCC fault KC5-5.WCC (1982)described the feature as a linear stream drainage north of the Susitna River and a prominent linear canyon and shallow linear depression south of the Susitna River that is fault-controlled in several locations.Indirect evidence of fault structure was observed along the prominent linear V-shaped drainage in the form of contrasting rock types (Figure A9-2.4).With the exception of the southern end,the strongly linear trend of most of the lineament group implies that any potential tectonic structure would have a steep to near-vertical dip.At the southern end of the lineament,the mapped lineaments that curve around a hill near WCC segment 4 (Figure A9-2.1)suggest that a fault in this area would have a moderate to shallowly west-dipping orientation.Individual lineaments are expressed in several Cretaceous to early Tertiary bedrock units exposed in the glaciated uplands:turbidite rocks of the Cretaceous Kahiltna flysch (map unit KJs), Paleocene granitics (map unit Tpgr),and at the contact between units those units where the inferred fault trace is mapped (Wilson et al.,2009).North of the Susitna River,lineaments are expressed as short,discontinuous,and weakly-aligned,bedrock knobs,and in the southernmost portion of the group INTERIM DRAFT Page 29 of 81 01/20/14 Zz ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 16-1401-TM-012014 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. as 1-to 4-m-high ( 3-to 13 ft),east-facing slope breaks in thin colluvium overlying bedrock.The mapped lineaments do transect mapped bedrock units,but are not expressed in the limited extent of Quaternary surficial deposits present along the group.No lineaments were observed in post-glacial (early Holocene)fluvial deposits within a broad depression (Figure A9-2.1)or across the extent of a post-glacial landslide located in WCC segment 3.The scale of expression of the lineaments is variable along trend.The 1-to 4-m-high ( 3-to 13 ft),east-facing slope breaks in the south contrast with the >300-m-deep ( 985 ft)linear V-shaped canyon,and the absence of any lineaments in above-mentioned late Quaternary deposits.The orthogonal orientation of the lineament group to the regional ice-flow direction (Figures A9-1.1 and A9-2.1)suggests that the lineament group as whole likely does not result from ice-flow or scour,but individual knobs in the north could relate to plucking by flowing ice.No field evidence of consistently deformed linear strain markers was observed along the lineament group during low altitude aerial or ground investigation.A sharp bend in the Susitna River exists where the lineament group projects across the river (Figure A9-1.1)but south of the river lies an apparently undeformed contact between turbidite rocks of the Cretaceous Kahiltna flysch (map unit KJs)and Paleocene granitics (map unit Tpgr),while the southern portion of the lineament group corresponds to an inferred fault mapped by Wilson et al.(2009)that juxtaposes those same rock types (Figure A9-2.1). Based on the mapped geologic contacts along the southern portion of the group,the apparent sense of offset is right-lateral with possible unknown oblique component.However,this is kinematically inconsistent with the mapping north of the Susitna River because the mapped contact between Cretaceous Kahiltna flysch (map unit KJs)and Paleocene granitics (map unit Tpgr)is apparently undeformed and undisplaced where the lineament group projects across the contact. WCC's evaluation of their feature KC5-5 led them to recognize four segments of the feature (WCC, 1982)(Figures A9-1.1 and A9-2.1).Segment |is the linear drainage that lies north of the Susitna River.WCC acknowledged that the drainage may be fault-controlled but WCC did not observe any evidence that conclusively confirmed or precluded a fault origin (WCC,1982).Low-level aerial investigation revealed that the drainage is only weakly linear and did not reveal any evidence to refute WCC's observations. Segment 2 is the V-shaped linear drainage >5 km ( 3 miles)in length directly south of the Susitna River.Here,WCC observed fault zones via helicopter aerial reconnaissance in three different locations running parallel to the overall lineament orientation.The fault zones are a few inches (few centimeters) to a few feet (few meters)in width,near vertical in orientation,light gray in color,and form sharp, distinct boundaries within intrusive rocks and locally separate intrusive from metamorphic rocks.No evidence to determine the sense of displacement was observed (WCC,1982).These fault zones may be similar to the zones of light-colored,fractured,and highly weathered rock in Cheechako Creek along lineament group 8 observed by both WCC and FCL during aerial inspection.One or more of these fault zone location may lie within the view captured in photograph J of Figure A9-2.4. INTERIM DRAFT Page 30 of 81 01/20/14 -Z-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 16-1401-TM-012014 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. Segment 3 is a broad and shallow curvilinear depression in the bedrock upland south of segment 2. Mapping completed by WCC revealed that a contact mapped by Csejtey et al.(1978)between Cretaceous argillite and greywacke metasediments on the west and Tertiary intrusive rocks on the east, which was previously thought to coincide with the depression,is too irregular to match the contact. Rather,WCC describes that the fault zone lies entirely within the Tertiary intrusive rocks (WCC,1982). However,more recent compilations of mapping (i.e.,Wilson et al.,2009)show this area as turbidite rocks of the Cretaceous Kahiltna flysch (map unit KJs)(Figure A9-2),suggesting an apparent discrepancy in the understanding of the geologic units.Field investigation in July of 2013 confirmed the presence of granodiorite (presumably equivalent to Paleocene granitics;unit Tpgr)in a nearby drainage previously mapped as exposing turbidite rocks of the Cretaceous Kahiltna flysch (map unit KJs)(Figure A9-2.1 and A9-2.4),confirming the interpretation that contact relations from this ground inspection are more complicated than shown by Wilson et al.(2009). Regardless of the bedrock lithologies present,WCC observed sediments in the broad depression which they interpreted to be approximately 40,000 to 75,000 years in age.Their aerial inspection revealed no evidence of deformation of the sediments and they interpreted that the observed fault zones had not experienced displacement within the last 40,000 years (WCC,1982).Based on an updated view of the Quaternary glacial history of the region (Section 3.3),these sediments are likely much younger,as deglaciation of this area is possibly as young as 15,000 to 11,000 years.Our low-level aerial and ground inspection confirmed the absence of any apparent deformation or lineaments observed by WCC (1982)(Figure A9-2.4). Segment 4 consists of an alignment of east-facing linear bedrock scarps,some of which coincide with the location of several springs (Figures A9-2.2 and A9-2.3).These topographic escarpments are readily apparent in the INSAR data along the southernmost portion of the lineament group (Figure A9-2.1)and are the most suspiciously fault-like geomorphic features in the group.WCC's field investigations suggested that the scarps could relate to differential erosion controlled by jointing but that the scarps are not controlled by lithologic contacts.WCC could not identify direct evidence of faulting along segment 4 of their Fault KC5-5 but did acknowledge the segment could be fault controlled (WCC,1982). Ground access restrictions prevented thorough study of all the features but aerial inspection revealed the lineaments are generally 1-to 4-m-high,east-facing slope breaks that are each several hundred meters or more long (Figures A9-2.2 and A9-2.3).The features align in a subtle curve across the topography, suggesting that any fault here would have a moderate to shallowly west-dipping orientation.Detailed review of the geomorphology along the features revealed apparent morphological and kinematic inconsistencies;in adjacent drainages both left-lateral and right-lateral apparent sense of motion indicators were observed,which is further inconsistent with the apparent west-up/east-down thrust movement suggested by adjacent features along trend and the apparent the west-dipping orientation of the features as they cross topography. INTERIM DRAFT Page 31 of 81 01/20/14 -Z-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY .AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. After evaluating all four segments of their Fault KC5-5,WCC concluded that together the observed features represented a fault without recent displacement,noting "the absence of any compelling evidence of recent displacement (e.g.,systematic stream drainage offsets,scarps in recent sediments,or offset of youthful geomorphic units)”(WCC,1982;p.4-44).Low altitude aerial and ground inspection in July of 2013 of the lineaments of group 9 revealed similar evidence and concluded that the features are likely a fault-line scarp.For example,no evidence of expression in Quaternary units,landforms,or strain markers was observed.Furthermore,although a rock-type contrast does exist across portions of the lineament,the current mapping compilation may be too simplified and more irregularity of bedrock unit contacts likely exists along the linear V-shaped drainage and mapped fault.Although the lineament group does coincide with a previously mapped fault and also cuts across several bedrock units,the magnitude of expression and apparent sense of deformation observed in the field is inconsistent along trend.Lineament group 9 is interpreted to represent a fault-line scarp and not a Quaternary tectonic feature. Lineament Group 10:Observations and Evaluation This lineament group was not advanced for field work in 2013 based on the desktop analysis of FCL (2013)that the lineament group is over 70 km ( 44 miles)from the proposed dam site and is less than 40 km ( 25 miles)long (Table 5-2),and likely would not appreciably contribute to the hazard calculations.Strip maps for this group are not included herein (Figure AQ)but were presented as part of FCL (2013).During limited flyovers in 2013,no features were observed that suggested a need to revise those conclusions. Lineament Group 11:Observations and Evaluation This lineament group was not advanced for field work in 2013 based on the desktop analysis of FCL (2013)suggesting that surficial processes are likely exploiting existing topographic position and/or local weaknesses in the underlying Cretaceous Khalinta flysch bedrock to create the lineaments.Strip maps for this group are not included herein (Figure AQ)but were presented as part of FCL (2013).Limited overflight of these features in 2013 appears to confirm this conclusion.In addition,the group is greater than 30 km ( 19 miles)from the proposed site and is less than 20 km ( 12 miles)in length (Table 5-2), and likely would not appreciably contribute to the hazard calculations. Lineament Groups 12a &12b:Observations and Evaluation Lineament 12a traverses part of the southeastern-facing Paleozoic volcanic hills in the Fog Creek area, about 14 km ( 9 miles)southeast of the proposed dam site (Figures AO.1 and Al2a.1).Aerial and ground inspection of group 12a confirmed the presence several southeast-facing slope breaks near the lower flanks of the hillside of the northern part of the group (Figure Al2a.2).There are no previously mapped faults within this group;however,field observations of color contrasts within the Paleozoic INTERIM DRAFT Page 32 of 81 01/20/14 -Z-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 16-1401-TM-012014 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. rocks (map unit Pzv)suggest the possible presence of northeast-oriented bedrock structures.No evidence of a fault was observed along the lineament group trend.A prominent notch with an uphill- facing slope break was observed within the Paleozoic rocks along the nose of a ridge (Photograph C, Figure Al2a.2).The topographic expression of this lineament feature on the ridge topography implies a northwest-dipping structure geometry.Bedded rock exposed on the other side of the mountains within the northwest-facing cirque walls appear to have a generally northwest dip and a moderate ( 45?) degree dip angle.The topographic expression of the lineaments about 1.2 km ( 3/4 mile)to the north of the notch may allow an inferred northwest-dipping geometry but with a much shallower dip plane as compared to the notch feature;suggesting a substantive change in dip should the lineaments represent a structural fault.The individual lineaments mapped along the north part of the group chiefly are within probable latest Wisconsin-age glacial deposits near the valley margin,and are oriented along the ice flow direction.To the southwest,the lineaments rise in elevation and are mapped in the Paleozoic rocks (map unit Pzv)above the contact with glacial sediments (map unit Qs).There are no lineaments expressed in the Quaternary deposits along about the southern half of group 12a,and there is visual evidence that right-lateral moraine and kame terrace features at the southern end of the group are not offset.The relief of the lineaments along strike is variable,and generally is greater in magnitude within the bedrock than the unconsolidated deposits.However,the morphology of the features is kinematically inconsistent along strike,with south-east facing downhill slope breaks found on the lineaments in the Quaternary deposits,and an uphill facing slope break on the bedrock notch feature. Although the individual lineaments of group 12a are mapped within late Quaternary deposits along the valley margin,there is no expression of deformation or offset of late Wisconsin landforms in kames or delta surfaces within the valley of Fog Creek directly north.Similarly,there is no expression of deformation or offset of late Wisconsin landforms in lateral moraines or delta surfaces within the Clear Valley directly south of group 12a.The individual lineaments appear to traverse both Paleozoic rocks as well as late Quaternary deposits,however,as noted above there is an inconsistent morphologic expression of those features along strike,as well as inconsistent relative structural kinematics (apparent dip,scarp direction)along the lineaments.The slope breaks within the Quaternary sediments along the northern part of the group appear to be a result of solifluction and to a lesser extent,nivation processes, and thus are dominantly erosional in origin.The observation of multiple slope breaks on the hillslope in the vicinity of the mapped lineaments,as well as the general lineament orientation being parallel to ice flow directions,suggests the lineament group was not produced by tectonic processes,rather glacial deposits that are now undergoing solifluction and nivation processes.From these observations and interpretations,it is judged that the lineaments within group 12a are the result of both past glacial processes,ongoing hillslope erosion processes,and potentially bedding relationships within the Paleozoic rocks,and do not represent a tectonic fault. INTERIM DRAFT Page 33 of 81 01/20/14 Zz ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 16-1401-TM-012014 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. Lineament group 12b is approximately 16 km ( 10 miles)southeast of the proposed Susitna-Watana dam site,and is about 2 km ( 1.5 miles)northwest of lineament group 12a and directly west of Mount Watana.Lineaments within group 12b are coincident with an unnamed,kinematically-undefined fault (Clautice,1990)within the Paleozoic Slana Spur volcanic rocks (map unit Pzv)(Figure A12b.1), however no direct or indirect field evidence of the fault was found from low-altitude inspection;the morphologic expression of the feature is incised drainages and a very broad and deep valley within which a small creek now flows (Photograph C,Figure Al2b.2).The trend of the lineament group across topography is essentially linear,implying a vertical geometry that cuts directly across contours.The lineaments are expressed chiefly in Paleozoic rocks,however,a thin cover of Holocene regolith mantles the rocks,consisting of unmapped talus,solifluction of glacial material,colluvium,and alluvium,in which the lineaments also are mapped.The lineaments show no field evidence of offsetting or deforming those sediments.The scale of expression of the lineaments varies along strike:it is rather large at the middle and northern end of the lineament group where it is coincident with an unnamed northeast-flowing drainage;the expression decreases along the southern end of the lineament group. The middle and northern part of the lineament group is oriented parallel to a glacial ice flow from cirques toward the Susitna River.The southern part of the lineament group is less certainly assessed with respect to ice flow because of its topographic position on the landscape.None of the glacial geomorphic surfaces in Fog Creek valley (e.g.eskers,deltas)along the southwestern projection of the lineaments were observed to be offset or deformed,and no evidence of deformation was observed at the Susitna River margin along the northeastern projection.Along the south-center part of the lineament group,a northwest-facing break in slope morphology may suggest reverse-type movement (i.e. northwest vergence),however,the ends of the group do not exhibit any strong kinematic indicators. The lineaments within group 12b did not show field evidence of expression in Quaternary deposits or landforms serving as strain markers,notably along the southwestern projection of the group into Fog Creek valley with late Wisconsin landforms.The lineament is chiefly constrained to within the Paleozoic volcanics (map unit Pzv),and is coincident with the previously mapped fault of Clautice (1990),suggesting a potential structural control and preferential erosion along the pre-existing structure. Alternatively,internal lithologic control on the geomorphic expression of the lineament (e.g.bedding)is plausible given the lack of lineament continuity beyond the Paleozoic rocks.The lineament group appears to have a variable geomorphic expression along strike,has weak kinematic indicators along strike,and has its largest surface expression in drainages flowing away from the area of kinematic indicators.In total,the field observations and data evaluation suggest that glacial and post-glacial fluvial erosional processes are a likely explanation for the origin of the lineament features.Individual lineaments may represent fault-line scarps or fault-line-valleys but due to the lack of expression in Quaternary deposits,the lineament group is not considered a Quaternary tectonic structure and no further work is deemed necessary. INTERIM DRAFT Page 34 of 81 01/20/14 -Z-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 16-1401-TM-012014 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. Lineament Group 13:Observations and Evaluation This lineament group was not advanced for field work in 2013 based on the desktop analysis of FCL (2013).Strip maps for this group are not included herein (Figure AO)but were presented as part of FCL (2013).FCL (2013)interpreted that lineament group 13 was the result of erosion,but also discussed that the lineament group lies greater than 40 km ( 25 miles)distant from the proposed dam site and is less than 20 km ( 12 miles)in aggregate length (Table 5-2)and would therefore likely have limited contribution to the hazard calculations.During limited flyovers,no features were observed that suggested a need to revise those conclusions. Lineament Group 14:Observations and Evaluation This lineament group was not advanced for field work in 2013 based on the desktop analysis of FCL (2013).Strip maps for this group are not included herein (Figure AO)but were presented as part of FCL (2013).The group is greater than 30 km ( 19 miles)from the site and less than 20 km ( 12 miles)in aggregate length,(Table 5-2)thus meeting lineament exclusion criteria.A limited fly-over in 2013 revealed no features that that suggested a need for additional analysis. Lineament Group 15:Observations and Evaluation This lineament group was not advanced for field work in 2013 based on the desktop analysis of FCL (2013).Strip maps for this group are not included herein (Figure AQ)but were presented as part of FCL (2013).FCL (2013)excluded the group from further analysis on the basis of its large distance from the proposed damsite ( 43 km [ 27 miles])and short aggregate length ( 6 km [ 4 miles])(Table 5-2).A limited fly-over in 2013 revealed no features that that suggested a need for additional analysis. Lineament Group 16:Observations and Evaluation This lineament group was not advanced for field work in 2013 based on the desktop analysis of FCL (2013).Strip maps for this group are not included herein (Figure AQ)but were presented as part of FCL (2013).This group is sub-orthogonal to the map trace of the Talkeetna fault (Csejtey,1978;Wilson et al.,2009),directly north of the WCC trench T-2 site (Figures 2-1 and 5-3).The group was excluded from further analysis on basis on its significant distance to the proposed damsite ( 60 km [ 37 miles]) and relatively short aggregate length ( 19 km [ 12 miles])(Table 5-2).During limited flyovers,no features were observed that suggested a need for additional analysis. Groups 17a,17b,&17c:Observations and Evaluation Lineament group 17a is a north-northwest trending lineament,approximately 24 km ( 15 miles)west of the proposed Susitna-Watana dam site (Figure AQ.1).Lineament group 17b is a north-northwest trending lineament group,approximately 36 km ( 22 miles)southwest of the proposed Susitna-Watana dam site.Lineament group 17c is approximately 45 km ( 28 miles)south-southwest of the proposed INTERIM DRAFT Page 35 of 81 01/20/14 -Z-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 16-1401-TM-012014 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. Susitna-Watana dam site,and is the southernmost extent of lineament the 17a,17b,and 17c series (Figures AO.1 1).Lineament group 17a is not coincident with previously mapped faults,however,the southerly extent of 17b and parts of 17c are (Figure Al7b.1 and Al7c.1).Wilson (2009)depicts a lineament coincident with 17a and another coincident with 17b.Although aerial field inspection did not find evidence to directly confirm the presence of a fault within group 17b and 17c,contrasting rock types and units were observed in the field in general consistency with previous geologic mapping, allowing the possibility of a bedrock fault structure along these groups. Lineaments within group 17a are mapped along a northerly segment of the Susitna River,a north- trending canyon tributary,and in the Quaternary deposits south of the canyon (Figure Al7a.1).No evidence of a fault was observed at the northern end of the lineament group along the south-facing wall of the Susitna River,nor along strike to the north.Low altitude aerial field inspection revealed that the lineaments in Quaternary deposits at the south end of group 17a do not show scarp-like morphologies; rather one is a discordant,small,creek drainage and the other appears to be a depositional contact of likely late Holocene grassy swale (bog)sediments against a near-surface ice-sculpted bedrock buttress (Figure Al7a.2).Lineament group 17a is somewhat off-trend of lineament groups 8 and 9,and also appears to follow a bedrock jointing pattern that is expressed on the landscape.Based on the absence of compelling evidence for Quaternary tectonism,lineament group 17a is judged to not represent a tectonic fault. As noted above,lineaments within the group 17b are somewhat coincident with previously published inferred faults and lineaments.Aerial field inspection indicated that the morphologic break in slope along the FCL-mapped lineaments at the base of the uplands near the western margin of the valley is not as sharp and abrupt in the field as implied on the INSAR-derived DEM.The most prominent morphologic feature is actually a narrow drainage that is fed by a perched lake;review of USGS topographic maps confirmed this linear feature as a creek.The trend of the lineaments across topographic contours is straight,but also parallel to contour because it is in the valley bottom;this would imply either a vertical or horizontal hypothetical fault dip geometry.The lineaments are chiefly mapped in thin glacial-derived sediments that primarily reflect erosion by small creek drainage,and are probably Holocene age.Near the south end of group 17b,the lineaments are mapped as extending out of the glacial deposits and traversing Tertiary volcanics (map unit Tvu)and Paleozoic volcaniclastic rocks of the Slana Spur formation (map unit Pzv)(Figure A17b.2)directly north of the Talkeetna River. Field investigation found no direct evidence of a fault along this trend.The lineaments appear to coincide with the trend of glacial ice flow directions that were valley parallel.The southeasterly oriented inferred fault of Csejtey (1974)also was not confirmed in the field;this area appears to be sculpted bedrock knolls that have been slightly dissected and mantled by a thin veneer of youthful glacial deposits (Figure Al7b.2).South of the Talkeetna River,the southern part of group 17b coincides with a short inferred fault of Wilson (2009).Low altitude fly-overs of this area discovered a INTERIM DRAFT Page 36 of 81 01/20/14 -Z-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 16-1401-TM-012014 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. positive relief "mole track-like”features present on the ground along the FCL-mapped lineament. Ground inspection resulted in the conclusion that the feature in fact is a pro-talus rampart;a geomorphic feature constructed by talus collecting in a snow covered field that results in talus deposition a short distance away from the base of the slope (Figure Al7b.3).The ground inspection supports the interpretation that glacial ice was present in the valley by the observation of an out-of-place glacial erratic.Although there may be a bedrock structure along part of this group that separates Paleozoic (map unit Pzv)and Mesozoic rocks (map unit Tvu),lineament group 17b is judged to be created at the local scale by fluvial erosion as well as in part by glacial ice erosion of the linear valley and periglacial processes. Along part of its northern and southern ends,lineament group 17c is partially coincident with faults previously mapped by Wilson (2009),although none are recognized by Csejtey (1974)and Clautice (1990).None of the faults depicted on Wilson (2009)are shown extending across or displacing Quaternary glacial or moraine deposits.No evidence was found during low altitude aerial field investigation to confirm the northern (dashed and inferred)previously mapped fault in group 17c.Near the southern end of 17c,the depicted rock juxtaposition between units Tertiary volcanic rocks (map unit Tvu)and Eocene mafic volcanic rocks (map unit Tem)(i.e.bedrock fault)was not lithologically well expressed in the field with apparently similar bedded volcanic rocks exposed on either side of the canyon walls (Figure Al7c.1),and the presence of the previously mapped fault is unconfirmed.The lineament trends across topography irrespective of contours in steep terrain,suggesting a near vertical geometry for a hypothetical structure.The lineaments are mapped across Tertiary volcanic rocks as well as in young (likely Holocene)rock glacier deposits;the expression within the rock glacier deposits correspond to relatively deep drainages eroded into the rock glacier deposits (Figure Al7c.2).The scale of the lineaments'expression along strike varies;along the north end of group 17c cirque ridges that are traversed by previously mapped structure are not offset and little relief is expressed topographically. Along the middle of the group the lineaments are expressed as ridgeline saddles with adjacent ridge peaks standing about 75 meters ( 246 ft)above the saddle whereas on the INSAR DEM the lineaments are attributed as linear v-shaped troughs.Along the south end of lineament group 17c,the relief along the lineament in the Quaternary rock glaciers is lesser than the middle part of the group,however,the relief in the rock glacier drainage is about 25 meters ( 82 ft);much larger than would be expected for a relatively low-slip rate fault structure in young post-glacial deposits.While the presence of a bedrock fault cannot be ruled out along lineament group 17c,it is judged that the mapped lineament is the result of erosion into the rock glacier deposit. Lineament groups 17a,17b,and 17c are each independently judged as formed by erosional processes (fluvial and/or glacial)as described above,based on field observations and interpretations.Collectively, these groups do not form a continuous geologic structure based on an absence of faults observed INTERIM DRAFT Page 37 of 81 01/20/14 -Z-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 16-1401-TM-012014 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. (directly or indirectly)in the field,and the inconsistent and variable geomorphic expression of the lineaments in the landscape along 17a,17b,and 17c as a whole. Lineament Group 18:Observations and Evaluation This lineament group was not advanced for field work in 2013 based on the desktop analysis of FCL (2013)which concluded that the group's large distance to the proposed damsite and short overall length (Table 5-2)would likely not appreciably contribute to the hazard calculations.Strip maps for this group are not included herein (Figure AO)but were presented as part of FCL (2013). Lineament Group 19:Observations and Evaluation Lineament group 19 is a semi-arcuate,northeast-trending group of linear features that is nearly 44 km ( 27 miles)long,located approximately 54 km ( 34 miles)southeast of the proposed Susitna-Watana dam site (Figure A0.1).This feature is defined by a series of aligned,gently-sloping linear range-fronts, slope breaks,linear valleys,and a few aligned saddles (Figures A19-1.1,A19-2.1,and A19-3.1). Existing geologic mapping (Wilson et al.,2009;Csejtey et al.,1978)suggests that this lineament group may represent a bedrock contact zone between various Jurassic age bedrock units (mostly Trondhjemite [map unit Jtr]vs.a migmatite border zone of granodiorite [map unit Jpmu]).An inferred fault mapped by Clautice (1990)lies east of the aligned features along a parallel orientation and nearly converges with the lineament group near the northern projection of the lineament (Figures A19-1.1,A19-2.1,and A19- 3.1).Indirect evidence of a fault structure was observed in the southwestern portion of the lineament where apparent rock type contrasts were observed via aerial inspection across an alignment of linear drainages (Figures A19-1.2 and A19-1.3).The trend of this rock type contrast/rock contact across the topography is very linear,suggesting that any tectonic feature present would have a near-vertical to steeply-dipping orientation.The features making up lineament group 19 are expressed in bedrock valleys,bedrock plateaus,valley-margin glacial deposits,and colluvial deposits.The ages of deposits in which lineament features are expressed ranges from the Jurassic age bedrock exposed in the linear valleys shown in Figures A19-1.2 and A19-1.3 to thin colluvial deposits of latest Holocene age.Low- level aerial inspection revealed that the lineaments of group 19 do transect several different geologic units and landforms,but are not present in the post-glacial (Holocene)alluvium of the Goose Creek or adjacent drainages (Figure A19-2.1).The magnitude of expression of the lineaments ranges from 10- m-high ( 33 ft)downhill-facing slope breaks in glacial deposits of the Black River to gently sloping 125-m-high ( 410 ft)(Photograph A,Figure A19-2.2;Photograph A,Figure A19-3.2)bedrock escarpments.The lineament group is roughly parallel to glacial ice flow directions in the Black River canyon and spatially coincident with left-lateral ice margins as mapped by Williams and Galloway (1986)(Figures A19-1.1,A19-2.1,and A19-3.1).Field inspection did not reveal any displaced or deformed linear strain markers along the lineament.The morphology of the lineament and its expression in the landscape suggests that,if it were a tectonic fault,it would be a strike-slip fault. INTERIM DRAFT Page 38 of 81 01/20/14 -Z-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 16-1401-TM-012014 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. Low altitude aerial observations showed variable evidence of lineament expression within the Quaternary deposits along lineament group 19.Lineaments are expressed in the glacial deposits of the Black River,but not in Holocene age rock glacier and glacial moraine deposits at the head of Kosina Creek (Photographs E and F,Figure A19-1.3),nor in the Holocene-age deposits of the Goose Creek adjacent drainages (Figure A19-2.1).(The lineaments in the glacial deposits of the Black River valley occur parallel to the ice-flow direction and their geomorphic position high on the left side of the valley suggests that the lineaments are most likely left lateral moraine or kame terraces.)The large magnitude of relief across the lineaments in the northeastern portion is inconsistent with the apparent lack of topographic offset across the lineaments in the southwest portion of the group.Specifically,the surfaces of the exceptionally planar bedrock plateau across which the aligned linear valleys run (Figure A19-1.1)show no evidence of the vertical displacement apparent along the lineament group to the northeast.This inconsistency in relief does not support the existence of a tectonic structure along lineament group 19.Bedrock exposures observed during ground inspection in creeks along the lineament showed evidence of pervasive jointing (Photograph C,Figure A19-3.2)which is the likely genesis of the linear troughs and swales at the northeast-most portion of the group (Photograph D). Lateral ice margins mapped by Williams and Galloway (1986)coincide with many of the mapped lineaments (Figures A19-2.1 and A19-3.1),providing a non-tectonic origin alternative.In addition,a series of sub-ice fluvial channels located just north of Goose Creek (Photograph B,Figure A19-3.1) cross the lineament and do not appear to be displaced.For these reasons,lineament group 19 is not interpreted to be the result of Quaternary tectonic faulting;a fault or bedrock contact may exist in the southwest portion of the group,but there is no direct evidence of Quaternary tectonic activity anywhere within the group.It is judged that lineament group 19 is a result of a combination of bedrock jointing and glacial and post-glacial erosion processes,and does not represent at Quaternary fault. Lineament Group 20:Observations and Evaluation Lineament group 20 is a northeast-trending lineament group defined by a series of sub-linear,aligned drainages,saddles,broad U-shaped troughs,and V-notched linear canyons expressed in an area of gently rolling hills and terrain of relatively modest-relief (Figures A20.1,A20.2,A20.3,and A20.4), approximately 94 km ( 58 miles)southeast of the proposed Susitna-Watana dam site (Figure AO.1). Some of the lineaments in this group coincide with mapped,unnamed faults with apparent vertical throw (Grantz,1960)that lie along the northeastern projection of the Castle Mountain fault (Figure AO.1,Plate A-CME).Early mapping by Grantz (1960)shows stratigraphic offsets within Tertiary (Eocene)units as well as between Tertiary (Eocene),Cretaceous,and Jurassic age rocks.However, more modern compilations (Wilson et al.,1998)show the same faults juxtaposing Jurassic-age sedimentary rocks against one another as well as Jurassic sedimentary rock units against Tertiary sedimentary units,suggesting a revised understanding of the geologic units with further study.No direct evidence of any of the mapped faults was apparent in the field during aerial or ground inspection but indirect evidence in the form of apparent rock type contrasts across mapped faults was observed INTERIM DRAFT Page 39 of 81 01/20/14 -Z-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 16-1401-TM-012014 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. near GPS way point 018 and locations to the southwest of GPS way point 018 (Figure A20.1).The trend of the lineaments across topography is very linear,suggesting any potential fault structures would be steeply dipping.Grantz's (1960)map unit Jns (Jurassic sandstone)is the oldest unit in which the linear drainages and aligned saddles occur in while the youngest map unit to express lineaments is Eocene fluviatile conglomerate and coaly sandstone (map unit Tf)(Figure A20.1).Very few Quaternary units were observed during field investigation of this group;colluvium is relatively thin and thin alluvial deposits are restricted to narrow watercourses.The area appears to be a region of erosional or residual terrane with gentle slopes with relatively non-resistant bedrock and few solifluction features. None of the mapped lineaments are concordant with glacial ice-flow directions;there is no field evidence of erosion from glacial ice within the area of the lineament group 20 (Figure A20.5)although the presence of glacial lake sediments and glacial erratics suggests the presence of glacial lakes (Figure A20.1).The magnitude of expression of the lineaments is not consistent along trend.For example,the mapped lineaments often alternate between weakly expressed and subtle slope breaks and broad troughs and deep and well-defined linear valleys.A prime example is the U-shaped swale shown in photographs A and B of Figure A20.1 which is not matched by similar features along trend to the southwest (Photograph C). Based on the bedrock map units alone,a short fault mapped by Grantz (1960)as running through the middle of the lineament group 20 ellipse and which is mapped as displacing Eocene fluviatile conglomerate and coaly sandstone (map unit Tf)in a down-to-the-southeast sense.GPS way point 001 lies on this fault.(Wilson et al.'s (1998)compilation ofthe area does not include this fault,but whether this difference is due to the regional scale of their compilation,or the discovery of additional evidence to refute the fault's existence is unknown.Consequently,review of the original mapping is warranted.) As noted above,a mapped lineament feature is spatially associated with this fault where the fault passes through a saddle but the lineament is not consistently expressed along trend.Specifically,a prominent linear ridge and the geologic unit contacts within it are not obviously displaced (Photograph C)and the southeast-flowing stream valley to the north also does not express the lineament.Close inspection of the INSAR-derived DEM revealed that no separation of geologic units may exist across the fault (Figure A20.6).Grantz (1960)mapped an apparent 100 feet ( 33 m)offset in the Tf-Jns contact but a detailed slope map of the area apparently shows the basal contact of Tf with the underlying Jns in a different position than depicted by Grantz and that does not suggest any offset.Southeast of the mapped fault, Grantz's (1960)Tf-Jns contact is approximately 100 feet too low on the hillside and northwest of the fault the contact is 100 feet too high elevation. The prominent swale coinciding with the mapped fault may have a genesis related to spillways and wave-cut benches developed during the presence of an ice-marginal glacial lake.Glacial meltwater was likely impounded by the left lateral moraines ofthe Little Nelchina ice lobe to the east and by the ice in Daisy Creek to the north (Figure A20.5).Ground investigation discovered a presumably ice-rafted INTERIM DRAFT Page 40 of 81 01/20/14 -Z-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 16-1401-TM-012014 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. granitic glacial erratic in terrain mapped as Jurassic sedimentary rocks (unit Jnbc)at an elevation of 3925 feet (at GPS waypoint 018 on Figure A20.1),about 100 feet higher in elevation than the swale shown in Photographs A and B of Figure A20.2.Williams and Galloway (1980)show a spillway transecting part of lineament group 20 at similar elevations that would have sent water over a drainage divide to Fourth of July Creek (Figure A20.5).Development of a similar spillway could be the genesis of the swale shown in Photograph A.In addition,several planar and horizontal benches at similar elevations may indicate the presence of a relatively long-lived lake,but could also relate to differential erodibility of the nearly horizontal stratigraphy in the area. In summary,some of the individual lineaments along the northwestern margin of group 20 do appear to coincide with previously mapped bedrock faults and are likely fault-line scarps developed along bedrock faults,but the remaining lineaments are interpreted to be the result of erosion and not tectonically-related.Low-level aerial and ground inspection did not reveal any evidence for Quaternary faulting along the mapped lineaments or previously mapped faults.However,the validity of some of the faults is in question when evaluated with modern high-resolution elevation data.The mapped lineaments are not consistently expressed across the landscape and nearly all are spatially associated with erosional features.For the above reasons,no further work for lineament group 20 is deemed necessary. Lineament Group 21a:Observations and Evaluation Lineament group 21a is a northwest-trending small group of lineaments expressed as weakly aligned features within a terminal moraine complex,and a few topographic slope breaks and linear drainages (Figures A2la.1 and A21a.2),approximately 41 km ( 25 miles)northeast of the proposed Susitna- Watana dam site (Plate 1).No previously mapped fault or lineament feature coincides with the orientation of the lineament group and no direct evidence of fault structure was observed during low- level aerial investigation.However,the Mesozoic-age Honolulu thrust fault (Csejety,1961)does cut across the lineament group but does not align or coincide with any mapped lineaments.The weakly linear alignment of lineaments across the relatively low-relief terrain (Figure A21a.1)does not constrain the geometry or kinematics of any potential tectonic structure.Lineament group 21a lies entirely with glaciated terrain at the confluence of possibly four different ice streams (Figure A21a.2)and although Cretaceous flysch is mapped nearby (Csejtey et al.,1992;Wilson et al.2009),field inspection confirmed that most of the area has either a surficial cover of glacial moraine and/or glacial lake deposits from a series of glacial lakes (Reger et al.,1990).The youngest deposits containing lineaments are likely late Holocene linear streams while the oldest surficial deposits in which lineaments are expressed are likely latest Pleistocene glacial deposits (Reger et al.,1990).The lineaments do not cut across different age deposits or landforms;they lie almost entirely within the Quaternary deposits in the valley bottoms.Aside from a 120-meter-tall rock-cored drumlin,the lineaments all have a relatively consistent magnitude expression of <15 meters tall and are both parallel and discordant with ice flow INTERIM DRAFT Page 41 of 81 01/20/14 -Z-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 16-1401-TM-012014 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. directions.The most prominent lineaments are three lineaments that trend highly obliquely to the rest of the group and which have morphology and position suggestive of being either a terminal moraine ridge from northwest flowing ice or an esker (Figure A21la.2).No field evidence of displaced or deformed terrace risers or moraine ridges was observed along the trend of the lineaments. Several lines of evidence point to a non-tectonic origin for the lineaments in group 2la.Although expressed in Quaternary deposits and of a scale consistent with a low slip-rate fault,the lineaments of group 21a do not traverse across portions of the landscape of different ages which would help support the existence of through-going tectonic structure.The apparent origins of the lineaments are both constructional (terminal moraine complex and eskers)and erosional (linear streams and short slope breaks in dissected glacial moraine ridges).In addition,part of the importance of group 2la as a potential tectonic structure is the group's spatial proximity and along-trend parallel orientation with group 21b,for which a non-tectonic explanation is likely (see below).Overall,the lineaments of group 21a are few in number,weakly expressed,weakly aligned,and do not coincide with a previously mapped structure.These factors,and the recent dominance of both active and stagnant ice processes in the area,point to a non-tectonic,glacial origin for the lineaments of group 21a and the lineaments are not considered further. Lineament Group 21b:Observations and Evaluation Lineament group 21b is a northwest trending group of lineaments expressed as a series of linear slope breaks and aligned linear drainages (Figure A21b.1)located approximately 43 km ( 27 miles)north- northeast of the proposed Susitna-Watana dam site.Lineament group 21a is separated from group 21b by about 5 km ( 3 miles).The only previously mapped fault or lineament feature that coincides with lineament group 21b is a photographic lineament mapped by Reger et al.(1990)that is discussed below and shown on Figure B-15.No fault exposures were observed during aerial and ground field investigation along lineament group 21b.The portion of the lineament group located west of Butte Creek climbs east-sloping terrain in a straight-line manner (Figure A21b.1)that suggests any potential tectonic structure would have a steep to near vertical dip and strong lateral kinematics.The lineaments of group 21b occur as downhill-facing slope breaks in mapped Quaternary glacial deposits (unit Qdt3 of Smith et al.(1988))and as linear streams and gulleys eroded into Cretaceous flysch,and to a lesser extent,Cretaceous granite (Csejtey et al.,1992;Wilson et al.,2009).Map unit Qdt3 is considered to be of late Wisconsin age (11,800 to 25,000 year B.P.)(Smith et al.,1988).The mapped lineaments coincide with a concealed bedrock contact between units Ks (schist)and Kph (phyllite)of Smith et al. (1988)but cut across the map unit contacts of Wilson et al.(1998)(Figure A21b.1).Low-level aerial and ground inspection revealed the scale of the lineaments ranges from 2-to 4-m-high slope breaks (Photograph A,Figure A21b.2)to 5-to 10-m-deep linear stream channels.The lineament group is oriented perpendicular to the ice flow directions within the Butte Creek valley. INTERIM DRAFT Page 42 of 81 01/20/14 Ze ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 16-1401-TM-012014 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. Field investigation did confirm the expression of the 3-km-long,downhill-facing slope break in Quaternary glacial deposits (Photograph A,Figure A21b.2)but did not reveal any exposures of the spatially-coincident concealed schist-phyllite contact mapped by Smith (1988).Inspection of the stream banks and terrace risers located to the west along the trend of the feature did not reveal any displaced terrace risers or surfaces (Figure A21b.3).Exposures in the left bank of Butte Creek at GPS waypoint 009 consisted of east-southeast striking,vertically-dipping phyllite which coincide with the projection of a lineament formed by a short,low-relief downhill-facing slope break (small arrows in Photograph A,Figure A21b.2)on the adjacent strath terrace surface.More resistant,sandy beds within the phyllite are interpreted to form the short slope break along the margin of the strath terrace and serve as an analogy for the much larger lineament located upslope.For example,rather than a being formed by a tectonic fault,the 3-km-long lineament mapped from INSAR data most likely relates to the rock type contrasts mapped by Smith et al.(1988)where higher grade (and more resistant)schist lies upslope of the slightly lower grade (and less resistant)phyllite and is overlain by a thin veneer of Quaternary glacial deposits.The linear streams and gulleys to the west of Butte Creek are therefore interpreted to be serendipitously-aligned erosion features.Alternatively,the reconnaissance mapping compiled by Wilson et al.(2009)for this area may be inaccurate,and the contact relations shown by the more detailed mapping of Smith et al.(1988)may continue westward,controlling the drainage patterns to produce linear streams along the strike direction of the phyllite.In either case,the lineaments of Group 21a are judged to be non-tectonic in origin and likely relate to differential erosion along depositional contacts within bedded metasedimentary rocks. Lineament Group 22:Observations and Evaluation Lineament group 22 is a northwest-trending group of lineaments defined chiefly as a series of aligned, linear V-shaped troughs and slope breaks (Figure A22),approximately 27 km ( 17 miles)northwest of the proposed Susitna-Watana dam site (Plate 1,Figure A0.1).Group 22 spatially coincides with several northwest-trending photogeologic lineaments discussed below as features 7,8,and 9 in the section on Reger et al.'s (1990)northwest-trending photogeologic lineaments of the Healy A-3 quadrangle.These features are depicted as extending across Quaternary glacial sediments as well Tertiary and Cretaceous intrusives that have variable strikes and dips.The lineaments are mapped in Reger et al.'s (1990)till of late Wisconsin age (unit Qd3;9,500 to 25,000 years old)(Reger Public Data file 90-1),and are expressed in the field as linear erosional gullies.The geomorphic features east of Deadman Creek are smaller and less prominent in Mesozoic and Tertiary rocks as compared to those in Cretaceous rocks that are west ofthe creek,indicating an inconsistent scale of expression along strike (Figure A22.1).No field evidence of a fault was found during low-level aerial inspection,and much of the hillsides appear to be influenced by solifluction processes (Figure A22.2).The trend of the lineament on the landscape would suggest a hypothetical steeply-dipping geometry because the lineaments trend at high angles across contours.Along Deadman Creek,the lineaments are nearly orthogonal to the ice flow direction INTERIM DRAFT Page 43 of 81 01/20/14 Zz ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 16-1401-TM-012014 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. (Reger et al.,1990,sheet B),and no offsets in the lateral moraines were observed.Along the far western part of the lineament group,the lineaments are parallel to the ice flow direction. The lineaments of group 22 show a dearth of expression in Quaternary deposits,other than being associated with two linear drainages.While the lineaments transect several different geologic units, suggesting some continuity,we find that the magnitude of expression along strike is quite variable supporting an erosional genesis to the lineaments.The absence of substantive Quaternary lineaments further supports an erosional origin.Because of its geomorphic expression as linear drainages,there is insufficient landform information to assess potential kinematics (e.g.,uphill facing scarp).Because there is no fault previously mapped along this group and no evidence of a fault was observed,coupled with the field observations of hillslope processes as well as a distinct lack of faulting expression in the late Wisconsin glacial deposits,it is judged that lineament group 22 is not a fault. Lineament Group 23:Observations and Evaluation Lineament group 23 is an arcing group of roughly east-west-trending lineaments defined by a series of aligned slope-breaks,low mounds,and short linear ridges (Figure A23.1),approximately 62 km ( 39 miles)southeast of the proposed Susitna-Watana dam site.The features along the lineament trend occur entirely within mapped Quaternary glacial and lake deposits of the Copper River Basin (Williams and Galloway,1986;Wilson et al.,2009).Potential ages for these deposits range from mid to late Pleistocene_for the glacial till deposits to latest Pleistocene_for the glacial lake deposits (Williams and Galloway,1986).The lineaments do not coincide with any previously mapped faults or lineaments (FCL,2013)and low altitude aerial inspection did not reveal any direct evidence of tectonic structures anywhere along the lineament,including in the near-vertical cut banks of Tyone Creek.The aligned slope-breaks,low mounds,and short linear ridges that make up the lineament group are of mostly broad and low relief,ranging in height from approximately 30 m high ( 100 ft)in the west to 10 to 15 m high in the center and east portions.The orientation of the mapped lineaments is parallel to several north- south oriented drumlins mapped by Williams and Galloway (1986),and perpendicular to regional ice- flow directions,but parallel to and locally coincident with terminal moraine crests. Several pieces of evidence beyond the spatial coincidence with the terminal Tysus Moraines of Williams and Galloway (1986)point to a non-tectonic explanation for lineament group 23.For example,no direct evidence of tectonic structures was observed during very low altitude aerial inspection,including in key exposures where the lineament alignment crosses Tyone Creek.The arcing alignment and the consistently low relief morphology of the aligned slope-breaks,low mounds,and short linear ridges does appear similar to a terminal moraine complex.The positive relief of these features suggests constructional or depositional geomorphic processes,rather than tectonic processes, may have played a role in their formation and their subtle expression could derive from being obscured by overlying glacial lake deposits.For example,the lineament group lies within published glacial lake INTERIM DRAFT Page 44 of 81 01/20/14 -Z-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 16-1401-TM-012014 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. extents and elevations in the Copper Basin for lake elevations of 975 m,914 m ,800 m,and partly for the 775 m lake level (Kaufmann et al.,2011),suggesting Quaternary lake glacial processes may have influenced the formation of these features.The discordance of the lineaments located east of Tyone Creek with the orientation of terminal moraine ridges mapped by Williams and Galloway (1986)may result from differences in the scale and quality of the aerial photography used by Williams and Galloway (1986)compared to modern hi-resolution INSAR data.For example,the discordance could be the result of receding lake shorelines being interpreted as terminal moraines.Overall,the preponderance of evidence described above points to a genesis via glacial processes for the lineaments of group 23,and does not support a tectonic genesis.It is judged that lineament group 23 does not represent a tectonic fault,and no further work is recommended for lineament group 23. Lineament Group 24:Observations and Evaluation This lineament group was not advanced for field work in 2013 based on the desktop analysis of FCL (2013).Strip maps for this group are not included herein (Figure AQ)but were presented as part of FCL (2013).The lineament group is short ( 15 km [ 9 miles])and lies a great distance from the damsite ( 120 km [ 75 miles]),and likely would not appreciably contribute to the hazard calculations (FCL, 2013). Lineament Group 25:Observations and Evaluation This lineament group was not advanced for field work in 2013 based on the desktop analysis of FCL (2013).Strip maps for this group are not included herein (Figure AQ)but were presented as part of FCL (2013).The lineament group was interpreted to be the result of erosional and depositional processes (FCL,2013),chiefly the apparent alignment of several large,curvilinear glacial valleys.During limited flyovers,no features were observed that suggested a need to revise those conclusions. Lineament Group 26:Observations and Evaluation Lineament group 26 is a northwest-trending lineament group expressed as a series of aligned slope- breaks,U-shaped troughs,and linear drainage segments (Figure A26.1),approximately 2 km ( 1 miles) west of the proposed Susitna-Watana dam site (Figure AO.1).Much of the lineament follows an unnamed tributary to the Susitna River that lies directly west of Tsusena Creek.Previously mapped bedrock structures,lineaments,or faults are not coincident with or near this lineament group.Similarly, field evidence of fault structures were not observed along this lineament group during low altitude aerial inspection.The trend of the lineaments across topography implies a hypothetical near vertically- oriented geometry because the lineaments cut across topographic contours at high angles.South of the Susitna River,the lineaments are mapped in glacially-sculpted terrain that shows geomorphic landforms indicative of stagnant ice (e.g.eskers).The thickness of unconsolidated deposits on the south side of the river seems to be relatively thin.At the confluence of the Susitna River with Tsusena Creek,the INTERIM DRAFT Page 45 of 81 01/20/14 Zz ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 16-1401-TM-012014 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. lineament is mapped across Quaternary till deposits that overlie bedrock.North of the Susitna River, the lineaments principally are mapped in a linear drainage in whose upper banks are exposures of till that overlies lacustrine and fluvial deposits.The lineaments are mapped as cutting across Tertiary volcanics and intrusives as well as Quaternary sediment,however field observations did not find evidence to confirm presence of a lineament(s)expression in the bedrock or sediment.The scale of the expression of the lineaments along strike is variable,with little to no apparent relief across lineaments on the south side of the river.North of the Susitna River,the lineaments are depicted along a deeply incised canyon.The lineament group is relatively discordant with the ice flow direction,however,an esker deposit on the south side of the river trends oblique to the lineaments and showed no evidence of being offset or deformed based on low-altitude flyovers (Figure A26.2).Assessment of kinematics of the lineament morphology is indeterminate because there a near absence of geomorphic expression of tectonic-related features. The lineament group does not show evidence of expression in late Quaternary units or landforms, including the till deposits at the confluence of the Tsusena Creek and Susitna Rivers.The till that seems to overlie the lake deposits along the upper banks of the unnamed drainage also appears to have a horizontal basal contact (Figure A26.2).Most clearly,the esker landform on the south side of the Susitna River appears to be continuous where it extends across the mapped lineament,indicating no deformation since its emplacement.While the lineament group is mapped across different geologic units,there is very little consistency of expression north of the Susitna River as compared to the south. North of the river,the lineaments appear to be dominantly erosional based on their mapped position at the bottom of a sub-linear canyon.South of the river,the lineaments that are mapped largely follow ice- flow directions.The few that are not concordant with ice-flow direction seem to be related to near- surface bedrock that is expressed as drumlin-like landform features.Because of the absences of previously mapped structures or faults,the lack of field evidence of faults,and the apparent positive evidence for non-faulting or displacement vis-a-vis the undeformed esker deposit (>11 ka in age),it is preliminarily judged that the lineament group is erosional in origin and likely does not represent a fault structure.However,ground access for this lineament group was restricted during the 2013 field inspection,and due to the close spatial proximity to the dam site,this lineament group warrants additional study to confirm the absence of bedrock structure along these features. Lineament Group 27:Observations and Evaluation Lineament group 27 is a northeast-trending series of aligned lakes and subtle topographic troughs/swales that project towards a large and linear U-shaped valley (Figures A27-1.1 through A27- 3.1),approximately 80 km ( 50 miles)southeast of the proposed Susitna-Watana dam site (Figure A0.1).This group is expressed in mapped Quaternary sediments within the Copper River Basin and partially coincides with the mapped Sonona Creek fault (Williams and Galloway,1986;Wilson et al., 2009),although no fault exposures were directly observed in the field during aerial and ground INTERIM DRAFT Page 46 of 81 01/20/14 Zz ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 16-1401-TM-012014 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. reconnaissance.The geometry of any potential tectonic structure is difficult to resolve with certainty because the linear trend of the lineament across the very low relief (i.e.,basically flat)portion of the Copper River Basin could result from several fault geometries.The lineament is expressed in late Quaternary glacial drift and glacial lake deposits as a series of aligned lakes,linear lakes and swales, vegetation lineaments,low-relief ( 2-m-high)ridges,all of which project toward a 1 km right stream deflection in Tyone Creek (Figures A27-3.1 and A27-3.2).These lineament features were not mapped throughout all the Tolson Creek Moraine complex of Williams and Galloway (1986)but do exist in the glacial lake deposits (and underlying basal till under the center of the ice lobe?)located to the east. Williams and Galloway's (1986)depiction of the Sonona Creek fault is somewhat equivocal regarding the constraining age of potential faulting;they show the fault as truncating,cutting across,and also terminating into different ridges of the Tolson Creek moraine complex.The magnitude of lineaments' expression is relatively consistent along strike as shallow, 2-to 3-m-deep lakes and 2-m-high linear ridges,but the apparent sense of displacement is not consistent.In some locations (Photograph D, Figure A27-3.2)the apparent sense of displacement is south-down/north-up,whereas elsewhere the apparent displacement is south-up/north-down,and at other locations there is no discrete topographic expression of any displacement.The orientation of the lineament group is roughly perpendicular to the northwest-flowing ice in the Copper River Basin,but parallel to ice flowing down a northeast-trending segment of the Oshetna River Valley.No observations of displaced linear strain markers such as moraine ridges or terrace risers were found during low-level and ground investigation or from desktop analysis of the INSAR data.This suggests that the 1 km ( 0.6 miles)of apparent right-lateral stream deflection cannot be due to lateral fault motion,but it does not eliminate the possibility of stream deflection due to damming or diversion by a south-facing topographic scarp created by a north- up/south-down sense of vertical movement. Field investigation revealed that the very few lineaments mapped in the western half of the group within the broad glacially-sculpted Oshetna River valley (Figures A27-1.1 and A27-2.1)are either rock or drift drumlins or coincide with ice-marginal features such as kame terraces,and are not likely tectonically related.The most prominently expressed features of group 27 are located in the eastern portion of the group amongst features that appear to be derived from stagnant ice (Figure A27-3.1)and coincide with the mapped Sonona Creek fault,but these aligned lakes,linear lakes and swales,and vegetation lineaments do not appear to transect across features of different ages.Specifically,ground investigation and aerial inspection of the Tolson Creek moraines did not reveal any lateral or vertical deformation along the projection of the mapped fault-only the presumably younger areas of ice-related deposition contained lineaments.The expression of lineaments in a portion of the landscape judged to be the youngest,and the absence of observed deformation (lateral or vertical)in the adjacent Tolson Creek Moraines,which are older,is inconsistent with an origin by faulting.(If the youngest portions of the landscape express prominent tectonic geomorphology,the older portions would likely also show evidence of recent tectonic activity too.)However,the lineament group's orientation does align with an INTERIM DRAFT Page 47 of 81 01/20/14 -Z-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 16-1401-TM-012014 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. apparent regional structural grain in the landscape,based on the orientation of the Castle Mountain fault 30 km to the south.Field investigation did not reveal any definitive evidence to strongly refute nor strongly support the presence of the mapped portion of the Sonona Creek fault and a late Pleistocene/early Holocene earthquake event cannot be refuted. The initial Susitna-Watana PSHA (FCL,2012)included the Sonona Creek fault as a seismic source based on the mapping of Williams and Galloway (1986)that depicts a late Quaternary faulted moraine. The aerial and ground field observations from this study did not verify this feature,however,the field data are not sufficiently detailed or extensive to preclude the potential of a latest Pleistocene to early Holocene co-seismic surface rupture.This would require developing a new detailed map along the Sonona Creek fault trace and confirmation of the relative age relationships of the presumed unfaulted deposits in that area.The Sonona Creek fault was not a significant contributing seismic source in the FCL (2012)PSHA evaluation due to its low slip rate and distance ( 70 km)from the Watana site. Based on the 2013 field observations,the Sonona Creek fault should likely be retained in the seismic source model,but with an updated source characterization which considers a weighted non-tectonic interpretation of this lineament suggested by the new field observations.Reasons for maintaining this feature in the seismic source model are:(1)it is depicted on a previous publication as a late Quaternary fault,and,(2)the present study scope does not provide sufficient field evidence to positively refute its existence.In the absence of further field studies of the Sonona Creek fault,inclusion ofa non-tectonic alternative for this fault would encompass a broad range of alternative interpretations within the crustal source model.No further field studies of the Sonona Creek fault or features in lineament group 27 for the Watana dam seismic hazard evaluation are recommended. Broad Pass Area Faults:Observations and Evaluation The Broad Pass area includes,for this investigation,the northeast-trending northwest-dipping thrust fault previously mapped by Csejtey (1961),approximately 56 km ( 35 miles)northwest of the proposed Susitna-Watana dam site,along the western extent of the Chulitna River valley (Plate Al);as well as other bedrock faults mapped within and near the Chulitna valley (e.g.,Honolulu thrust fault of Csejtey (1961));and most recently several northeast-southwest oriented faults depicted by Wilson et al., (1998)).Faults oriented approximately northeast-southwest in this area are likely favorably oriented for (re)-activation in the existing crustal stress field near the Denali fault.A strong fabric of northeast- trending glacial features characterizes the geomorphology in the Chulitna valley,with numerous landforms such as drumlins,and glacial striae occurring throughout the valley.Existing geologic mapping (Wilson et al.,1998)depicts pre-Quaternary faults that apparently place Paleozoic and Mesozoic rocks against each other,or Paleozoic and Mesozoic rocks against Tertiary sedimentary rock units.These older rocks are in turn overlain by Quaternary glacial and fluvial sediments that are no older than late Wisconsin age. INTERIM DRAFT Page 48 of 81 01/20/14 -yw ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 16-1401 -TM-012014 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. Several locations were investigated as part of the assessment of previously mapped faults in the Chulitna River valley (Plate A-BP).Faults mapped as bounding Tertiary units could not be confirmed due to lack of exposure (e.g.,Figure A-BP.1).A ground traverse was made orthogonal to the mapped fault and no exposures were present and a fault was not observed during the hike.Low altitude fly- overs of the partly-forested,partly-wetland surface of the Chulitna valley found no evidence of Quaternary faulting,and the surficial geomorphology observed was uninterrupted and undeformed. Exposures of Quaternary terrace units exposed along the western bank of the West Fork of the Chulitna River appear to be chiefly fluvial in origin and show lenticular beds that are not entirely planar in geometry.On the east side of the West Fork of the Chulitna River,an important outcrop exposes late Quaternary till that unconformably overlies Tertiary sediments with an apparently horizontal basal contact geometry for the length of the exposure (Figure A-BP.1).Similar contact relations and horizontal geometries were observed in the East Fork Chulitna River and several tributaries.This observation argues that the till deposit has not experienced tectonic deformation since its emplacement, supporting an interpretation of no late Quaternary or post-glacial faulting. Other locations within the Chulitna River valley were visually inspected (Plate A-BP;Figures A-BP.2 and A-BP.3).Field investigation found no evidence to directly confirm the faults as mapped.In all instances,late Quaternary cover overlying the fault appeared undisturbed and not offset.Based on the extensive glacial ice features that are prevalent in the valley,the late Quaternary deposits and landforms are probably from the last glacial maximum.The lineaments mapped within the Chulitna River valley are oriented along the direction of ice flow,and generally are located along the margins of geomorphic features (e.g.drumlins,kettle edges)that are genetically related to glacial flow and related processes. Thus,none of the lineaments mapped in this area are considered tectonic in origin.The field evidence did not directly confirm the previously mapped pre-Quaternary faults,nor did it confirm faulting of Tertiary deposits at locations inspected.However,observations of field exposures and late Quaternary surficial deposits showed no evidence of faulting. Clearwater Mountains:Observations and Evaluation FCL (2013)identified the Clearwater Mountains as an area of interest because the western extent of the Broxson Gulch fault lies within the Clearwater Mountains,and was inferred as Quaternary-active by Nokleberg et al.(1994).Conceptually,the region could be analogous to the area around the Susitna Glacier fault,where a WSW-trending fault splays from the Denali fault and results in southward- directed uplift on a north-dipping fault.West-southwest trending fault splays may be favorably oriented for (re)-activation within the existing crustal stress field and if active would potentially provide a structural connection between the Denali fault and the Talkeetna thrust fault.In order to better understand the potential genesis of the Clearwater Mountains and potential connections between the Broxson Gulch fault and Talkeetna thrust fault,Plate A-CWM displays the area surrounding the INTERIM DRAFT Page 49 of 81 01/20/14 -Z-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 16-1401 -TM-012014 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. Clearwater Mountains.The potential junction of the Broxson Gulch fault and Talkeetna thrust faults lies approximately 83 km ( 52 miles)northeast of the proposed dam site. Several different iterations of geologic mapping exist for the area of the southern Clearwater Mountains and these data are described in detail by FCL (2013).For the purposes ofthe current discussion,it is sufficient to reiterate that three maps in particular demonstrate the range of depictions of the faults in the area:Smith (1981),Silberling at al.(1981),and Csejtey et al.(1992).Importantly,the three maps show different configurations for the potential junction of the Broxson Gulch,Black Creek,and Talkeetna thrust faults in the Pass Creek area (Plate A-CWM).Smith et al.(1981)show the Talkeetna thrust fault as a continuation of the Broxson Gulch fault,which together truncate the Black Creek fault.Silberling et al.(1981)also show the Talkeetna thrust fault as a continuation of the Broxson Gulch fault but do not present mapping of the Black Creek fault.In contrast,Csejtey et al.(1992)shows the Broxson Gulch fault continuing westward as the Black Creek fault and the Broxson-Black Creek fault system as truncating the Talkeetna thrust fault.Based on their own work,and upon review of previous work, including the work of Nokleberg et al.(1994),O'Neill et al.(2001)conclude that the Black Creek/Broxson Gulch fault truncates the Talkeetna thrust fault,and that the Broxson Gulch fault and Talkeetna thrust faults are not kinematically or structurally related. Based on the results of FCL (2013),two specific areas within the Clearwater Mountains were deemed candidates for field inspection (Plate A-CWM):1)the junction area of the Talkeetna thrust,Broxson Gulch thrust,and Black Creek faults (lineament group CMW1)and,2)a collection of lineaments on the south side of the Clearwater Mountains (lineament group CMW2). Lineament group CWM1 does contain a few lineaments that lie proximal to mapped faults in the saddle between the Windy Creek and South Fork Pass Creek valleys (Plate A-CWM,Figure A-CWM.1)and in other locations along the Black Creek fault (Plate A-CWM).In the saddle between the Windy Creek and South Fork Pass Creek valleys,the trend of most mapped lineaments across the terrain was somewhat inconclusive while the trends of others suggested the potential geometry of fault structures would be steeply dipping.Indirect evidence of fault structure was observed in several locations in the high elevation bedrock terrain above the valley floor in the form of contrasting rock-type juxtapositions (Figure A-CWM.1 and A-CWM.2)that corroborate the general locations of the mapped faults.The FCL-mapped lineaments are expressed as linear gullies and streams in both late Cretaceous to early Jurassic bedrock and glacial deposits,broad and shallow U-shaped linear troughs in glacial deposits,and locally as side-hill benches within latest Pleistocene glacial deposits on the margins ofthe valleys.The lineaments do not appear to cut across different geologic units and have a consistent magnitude of expression.The lineaments are both discordant and concordant with glacial ice-flow directions;some lineaments may be expressing the ice-limit elevations at the bedrock-glacial moraine contact (Figure A- CWM.1).No field evidence of deformed Quaternary-age linear strain markers along the trend of INTERIM DRAFT Page 50 of 81 01/20/14 2 ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 16-1401-TM-012014 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. mapped lineaments or faults was observed during aerial inspection.Furthermore,no evidence of through-going tectonic geomorphology was observed along the mapped lineaments in the saddle between the Windy Creek and South Fork Pass Creek valleys,nor any expression of deformation in the Quaternary sediments of the north-trending glaciated valleys across which the Black Creek fault cuts (Figure A-CWM.2). The FCL-mapped lineaments in the area of group CWM2 do not coincide with previously mapped faults,lie at elevations below the maximum ice elevation,and are oriented mostly parallel to the direction of ice flow (Plate A-CWM).The lineaments are expressed as side-hill benches within Quaternary glacial deposits (and spatially coincide locally with kame terraces)(Figure A -CWM.3)and as downhill-facing scarps in areas subject to solifluction.The magnitude of expression varies from relatively broad side-hill benches 10s of meters wide and 100s of meters long to smaller topographic scarps with only a few meters of relief that are difficult to trace laterally in thick vegetation.Extensive low-level and ground investigation revealed that the lineaments are not laterally continuous across different geologic units or landforms;eskers and post-glacial alluvial fans are not apparently deformed along the projection of the lineaments (Figure A-CWM.3).No evidence of displaced or deformed linear strain markers was observed. In summary,some mapped lineaments mapped by FCL (2013)in the central Clearwater Mountains area coincide with previously mapped bedrock faults but no evidence of deformed or displaced Quaternary deposits was observed.No field evidence of Quaternary activity along the mapped traces of the Talkeetna thrust,westward extension of the Broxson Gulch,or Black Creek faults was observed and consequently the specific geometries and contact relationships between these three faults were not evaluated in the field.The lineaments mapped along the southern slopes of the Clearwater Mountains are interpreted to be of non-tectonic origin.The geomorphology on the southern slopes of the Clearwater Mountains is heavily influenced by glacial processes and the presence of left-lateral moraine deposits.Field investigation did not reveal any through-going and laterally continuous aggregations of individual lineaments or tilted tectonic markers (such as shorelines or terraces)at the southern foot of the mountains that could be definitively linked to a tectonic origin.Post-glacial landforms and deposits did not express any lineaments and appear undeformed. Castle Mountain Fault Extension:Observations and Evaluation The Castle Mountain fault is a Quaternary seismogenic structure,as well as a major structural boundary which was included as a seismic source in the initial Watana Dam PSHA evaluation (FCL,2012).The eastern extent of the Castle Mountain fault,as mapped in the Alaska Quaternary fault and fold database (i.e.,Koehler et al.,2012),bifurcates to the east toward the Copper basin,ending in two splays (Plate A-CME).The northern splay ends at an unnamed glacial valley west of Caribou Creek;and the southern splay ends at the confluence of Billy Creek,and the larger Caribou Creek drainage.Northeast INTERIM DRAFT Page 51 of 81 01/20/14 Za ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 16-1401-TM-012014 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. of the mapped end of the southern splay of the Castle Mountain fault,along Billy Creek,a group of lineaments projects to the northeast along a trend similar to the Castle Mountain fault (Plate A-CME). Lineament features aligned with the Castle Mountain fault could potentially increase the overall rupture length of the fault,and may extend slightly closer to the Watana dam site than previously mapped. Field evidence for faulting observed during low altitude aerial and ground inspection included:apparent bedrock type juxtapositions,bedrock color change associated with alteration zones,and deformation of bedrock units.All apparent evidence was observed in bedrock and no linear expression or evidence of faulting was observed in Quaternary deposits,although Quaternary deposits were scarce.The mostly straight to overall gently arcuate trend of the lineaments across high-relief mountainous terrain occur within a swath of parallel to sub-parallel features.The landscape in this swath exhibits a clear northeast-trending structural grain which suggests a steeply dipping structure(s)within a zone of deformation.To the southwest,the lineaments coalesce and join the right-lateral Castle Mountain fault. Considering the oblique orientation of these faults to the east-west trending right-lateral Castle Mountain fault system,the kinematics of these features can be implied as being right-lateral oblique with a larger vertical component than lateral.Observed lineament features occur in multiple bedrock lithologies,including:the Jurassic Talkeetna (Jtk),the undivided Chinitna and Tuxedni formations (Jtxc),and Naknek formations (Jn),Cretaceous Matanuska Formation (Km),Tertiary age Chickaloon formation (Tch)and undifferentiated Tertiary volcanic rocks (Tvu)(Plate A-CME).These features are only expressed in upland bedrock terrain and slopes and do not occur in alluvial deposits or glacial landforms.The orientation of these lineaments is perpendicular to regional ice-flow direction.It is unlikely that glacial processes played a major role in the formation of these lineaments. Quaternary deposits in the vicinity of the Castle Mountain fault extension lineament group have limited spatial coverage and most commonly occur as fluvial deposits found within in narrow canyons.Bubb Creek,Flume Creek,Greta Creek,and other unnamed drainages intersect,and are nearly orthogonal to, the lineament alignment and mapped features of Csejtey et al.(1978).Each waterway is relatively narrow with little to no Quaternary deposits.The Little Nelchina River valley is a broad glacial valley, and it provides the best exposure of continuous,flat-lying,and undeformed Quaternary terraces across the lineaments and mapped features.The scale of aligned features such as saddles,linear U-and V- shaped valleys,side-hill benches and breaks-in-slope remain consistent along strike and across variable terrain.Although a core group of lineaments within this group coincide with mapped faults,others do not.The mapped lineaments that do not coincide with previously mapped faults are attributed to be linear drainages (erosion features)and lineaments related to structural grain of the bedrock (lithologic control).The fault-related lineaments appear to be related to the Castle Mountain-Caribou fault systems of late Cenozoic age (Csejtey et al.,1978).Because of limited exposure of Quaternary deposits and the segmented and splayed characteristics of the mapped faults in this area,it is difficult to declare that all segments of this fault exhibit no Quaternary activity.No definitive evidence was encountered that INTERIM DRAFT Page 52 of 81 01/20/14 Za ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 16-1401-TM-012014 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. precludes a scenario where this segment of aligned features ruptures as an extension of the Castle Mountain fault.If the group of aligned features acts as an extension of the Castle Mountain fault,the group of features could extend the fault by approximately 21 km ( 13 miles)to the northeast of the current mapped extent of the fault as shown in Koehler et al.(2012).Based on the observations that these features are clearly related to faulting of late Cenozoic age,we suggest adding this segment of fault-related features to the crustal seismic source model as a northeast extension of the Castle Mountain fault rupture scenario. North-South Features near Talkeetna River-Susitna River Confluence:Observations and Evaluation This area was not advanced for field work in 2013 based on the desktop analysis of FCL (2013)on the basis of the features'large distance (i.e.,>70 km [>40 miles]})to the proposed dam site and their poor expression in the surrounding Quaternary sediments and Tertiary granodiorite outcrops as manifested in the INSAR data.This group was not visited during the 2013 field inspections and no observations were made that suggested a need for additional analysis.A plate showing available geologic data for this group is not included herein but was presented as part of FCL (2013). Photogeologic Lineaments Mapped by Reger et al.(1990)in the Healy A-3 Quadrangle In addition to investigation of the lineaments mapped by FCL (2013),lineaments appearing in Reger et al.(1990)were also evaluated in the field.In their study,Reger et al.(1990)mapped geologic units, glacial features,glacial lake shorelines,faults and lineaments within the extent of the Healy A-3 quadrangle.These features are presented in several thematic map sheets and described in the associated report.In the report,Reger et al.(1990)mention that "several photogeologic lineaments transect or offset moraines...”and are "likely candidates for active faults.”Reger et al.(1990)describe one specific lineament as intersecting an east facing cirque in the headwaters of Butte Creek and being coincident with an offset cirque floor.Three lineament groups mapped by FCL (2013)and evaluated as part of this study (groups 21a,21b,and 22)fully or partly overlap the Reger et al.(1990)map area (Figure B-01). None of the features identified in these three lineament group areas are interpreted to be associated with late Quaternary faulting.However,closer examination of the Reger et al.(1990)map showed a number of locations where the map depicted faults and solid lines either through or extending into Quaternary units.Based on these observations and the statements in the associated text,the features shown on the Reger et al.(1990)map were highlighted for further field review. Lineaments and faults appearing in Reger et al.,(1990),Sheet |of 2,were digitized as shapefile lines at a scale of 1:63,360,or better,and attributed appropriately.The locations where these lineaments and faults were mapped across or extended into Quaternary units were identified,saved as shapefile points and given a feature number (Figure B-01).The line and point shapefiles were loaded into an ArcGIS- enabled ruggedized field laptop with real-time GPS tracking.Field investigation of each feature was INTERIM DRAFT Page 53 of 81 01/20/14 -Z-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 16-1401-TM-012014 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. conducted via helicopter overflight with limited ground inspection,using the evaluation process described in Section 2 and Section 3 above.Discussion of these features follows below,but due to the large number of features shown by Reger et al.(1990),figures presenting the map and field data for the features are presented as Appendix B. Feature 1: Feature 1 is a northeast trending photo-lineament mapped over orthogneiss and migmatite (TKgm) bedrock in its central and northern portions.The southern portion of the lineament is mapped over Quaternary age landslide (Qct)and rock glacier (Qcg)deposits in a narrow south facing cirque (Figure B-02).Low altitude aerial inspection of this location revealed that the mapped trace of the lineament is coincident with a linear alignment formed by the toe of a rock glacier advancing downslope from the eastern cirque wall.The lineament is enhanced because it is in close proximity,and parallel to,the axial drainage channel.Additionally,the lineament is absent in the Quaternary sediments on the valley floor of the down-drainage intersecting valley.Field observations and existing data indicate that this feature is likely non-tectonic in origin. Feature 2: Feature 2 is a northwest trending photo-lineament mapped over a quartz monzonite gneiss (TKqmg)and paragneiss (TKpng)bedrock ridge.The lineament is terminated in Wisconsin age till (Qd3)at its northwest extent (Figure B-03).The mapped trace of the feature overlies obliquely oriented linear glacial striations within the bedrock.Low altitude aerial inspection revealed no clear linear expression in the terrain with the same orientation as the mapped trace of Feature 2.Quaternary deposits at the northwest and southeast extent of this feature were visually inspected,and no evidence of linear expression was observed.Field observations and existing data indicate that this feature is likely non- tectonic in origin. Feature 3: Feature 3 is a west-northwest trending photo-lineament mapped across Wisconsin age till (Qd3), moraine (Qm3),and abandoned meltwater channel alluvium (Qac)deposits (Figure B-04).Low altitude aerial inspection revealed that this feature correlates with linear expressions related to glacial features rather than tectonic features.The western and central segments of this lineament are coincident with two prominent breaks-in-slope on the northeastern margin of a U-shaped glacial valley.The eastern portion of the feature is coincident with a linear to semi-arcuate moraine.In addition,the lineament has no expression within the Qac deposits near the center of the mapped trace.Field observations and existing data indicate that this feature is likely non-tectonic in origin. INTERIM DRAFT Page 54 of 81 01/20/14 -Z-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 16-1401-TM-012014 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. Features 4 &5: Features 4 and 5 are mapped as sub-parallel northwest striking faults across a broad Kahiltna Terrace argillite,sandstone,and siltstone (JKs)bedrock ridge (Figure B-05).Both of these faults are depicted as intersecting Wisconsin age till (Qd3)deposits on the flanks of the ridge.A clear expression of these faults was not observed in the bedrock during low altitude aerial inspection.In addition,the Quaternary (Qd3)deposits were observed to have no linear expression or fault related deformation.Lacking evidence of Quaternary age deformation,these features are not considered to be active structures. Feature 6: Feature 6 is an arcing north-northwest trending photo-lineament mapped across granodiorite (Tgdf) bedrock and Quaternary age paludal (Qs)and Wisconsin age till (Qd3)deposits (Figure B-06).The central portion of the mapped lineament correlates to a prominent break in slope and juxtaposing bedrock and Quaternary deposits.The northern extent of the lineament is expressed by a subtle west facing slope and linear valley.The southern extent is mapped over the crest of a bedrock knob and has no clear expression.Low altitude aerial inspection revealed that this lineament exhibits an opposite sense of vertical displacement in the north (apparent down-to-the-west)compared to the middle and southern segments (apparent down-to-the-east),an unlikely combination of geomorphic expressions for a tectonic feature with vertical displacement.Geomorphic expression indicative of oblique or strike-slip faulting was not observed.Additionally,this lineament has no expression within Quaternary deposits. Field observations and existing data indicate that this feature is likely non-tectonic in origin. Feature 7: Feature 7 is a sinuous east-northeast trending photo-lineament mapped over quartz monzonite gneiss (TKqmg),quartz monzonite (Tqm)bedrock,and Wisconsin age till (Qd3)deposits (Figure B-07a/b).A pegmatite vein is mapped,unbroken,across this feature at its intersection with the Feature 8 lineament. Low altitude aerial inspection revealed that linear expression within the Quaternary deposits was observed to be a linear drainage (western segment)and an alignment of solufluction lobes (eastern segment).In aggregate,this lineament is a collection of aligned and unrelated non-tectonic features: linear drainages,linear erosional features,and aligned solufluction lobes.Field observations and existing data indicate that this feature is likely non-tectonic in origin. Feature 8: Feature 8 is a slightly arcing west-northwest trending photo-lineament mapped over a quartz monzonite gneiss (TKqmg)bedrock ridge and Wisconsin age till (Qd3)deposits (Figure B-07a/b).The mapped trace of Feature 8 intersects Feature 7 on the eastern flank of the bedrock ridge.On the western side of the ridge,the feature intersects the northern extent of a mapped fault that has no expression in Quaternary deposits.Two pegmatite veins are mapped unbroken across this feature.This lineament is INTERIM DRAFT Page 55 of 81 01/20/14 2 ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 16-1401-TM-012014 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. made prominent by a very large southwest facing topographic scarp along a linear drainage on the west side of the ridge,and a linear drainage on the eastern side of the bedrock ridge.Low altitude aerial observations revealed that the topographic scarp is approximately 10-20m in height and likely an erosional feature related to solifluction.The scarp has a limited extent and is not expressed in any other bedrock segment or Quaternary deposit along Feature 8.Field observations and existing data indicate that this feature is likely non-tectonic in origin. The western portion of this mapped feature (from the fault intersection to the west)corresponds with the FCL mapped lineaments of lineament group 22 discussed above. Feature 9: Feature 9 is a northwest trending photo-lineament that is mapped over Wisconsin age till (Qd3),alluvial fan (Qaf),and moraine (Qm3)deposits (Figure B-08).The eastern portion of this lineament is the same feature as the lineaments included in FCL lineament group 22 discussed above.Low-altitude aerial inspection revealed that feature is formed by an alignment of non-tectonic glacial features:linear moraine,solufluction features,and glacial striations in the bedrock on the valley margin slopes.At one location near the center of its mapped trace,the lineament is overprinted with a Quaternary age alluvial fan.No trace of the lineament was observed within the alluvial fan deposit.Field observations and existing data indicate that this feature is likely non-tectonic in origin. Feature 10: Feature 10 is a long ( 10.5-km)north-northwest trending photo-lineament mapped over quartz monzonite (Tqm)and granite (Tgr)bedrock,and Wisconsin age till (Qd3)and alluvium (Qa)deposits (Figure B-09a/b).Low altitude aerial inspection showed that the lineament is mostly composed of linear drainages,linear moraines,and breaks in slope.The breaks in slope in the north and south display an opposite sense of displacement (down-to-the-east)than the middle slope (down-to-the-west), an argument against a through-going,tectonic feature with vertical displacement.Geomorphic features indicative of oblique or strike-slip faulting were not observed.Alluvial deposits within the intersecting glacial valley (southern portion of the trace)and the glaciated plain (mid to northern segment of the trace)show no clear evidence of linear expression.Field observations and existing data indicate that this feature is likely non-tectonic in origin. Feature 11: Feature 11 is a northwest trending photo-lineament mapped over granite (Tgr)and quartz monzonite (Tqm)bedrock and over Wisconsin age till (Qd3)and Quaternary landslide (Qct)and rock glacier (Qcg) deposits (Figure B-10).Observations made during low altitude aerial inspection showed that the mapped trace of this lineament is coincident with an alignment of moraine crests and linear erosion INTERIM DRAFT Page 56 of 81 01/20/14 Ze ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 16-1401 -TM-012014 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. features.The lineament was not observed in any of the intersecting Quaternary deposits.Field observations and existing data indicate that this feature is likely non-tectonic in origin. Feature 12: Feature 12 is an east-northeast trending photo-lineament mapped in Quartz Monzonite (Tqm)bedrock and Quaternary age rock glacier (Qcg)deposits (Figure B-10).The western and central segments of this lineament are coincident with linear drainages (erosion features).In its eastern extent,the mapped trace of the lineament is coincident with the linear flank of a rock glacier over an older rock glacier. Observations from low altitude aerial inspection and existing data indicate that this feature is likely non- tectonic in origin. Feature 13: Feature 13 is a north-northwest trending fault mapped in Basalt,Rhyolite,and Agglomerate (Tvfa) bedrock and terminates at Quaternary age rock glacier (Qcg)and Quaternary landslide (Qct)deposits (Figure B-11a).The mapped trace is intermittent within the Quaternary deposits,and dike swarms (Tgr- d)are mapped unbroken across the project path of this feature.Observations from low altitude aerial inspection showed no expression of faulting within Quaternary deposits.Lacking evidence of Quaternary age deformation,these features are not considered to be active structures. Feature 14: Feature 14 is a north-northwest trending photo-lineament mapped in Basalt,Rhyolite,and Agglomerate (Tvfa)bedrock and Quaternary age landslide (Qct)and rock glacier (Qcg)deposits (Figure B-lla).This feature is along strike with,and appears to be mapped as a possible northern extension of,the Feature 13 fault.This lineament is formed by a linear drainage within a rock glacier in a narrow,south facing, cirque and an aligned saddle.Low altitude aerial inspection observed no evidence for faulting along this linear alignment.Field observations and existing data indicate that this feature is likely non- tectonic in origin. Feature 15: Feature 15 is a north-northwest trending fault mapped in Basalt,Rhyolite,and Agglomerate (Tvfa) bedrock and Quaternary glacial till (Qd)deposits (Figure B-lla).Low altitude aerial inspection observed the fault in bedrock outcrops on the mountain slopes and through a saddle.No expression of the fault or fault related deformation was observed in Quaternary (Qd)deposits in the valley floor or in an overlying rock glacier.Lacking evidence of Quaternary age deformation,these features are not considered to be active structures. INTERIM DRAFT Page 57 of 81 01/20/14 -Z-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 16-1401 -TM-012014 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. Feature 16: Feature 16 is a northwest trending fault juxtaposing Tertiary Quartz Monzonite (Tqm)against Cretaceous Kahiltna Terrane Argillite,Sandstone,and Siltstone (KJs)bedrock and over Quaternary landslide (Qct)and till (Qd)deposits (Figure B-11a/b).This fault is along strike with,and north of,the Feature 15 fault.The two features are separated by a glacial valley.Low altitude aerial and ground inspection observed evidence of faulting in bedrock at a ridgeline saddle near photograph location C, confirming the presence of the fault along the mapped trace.The Quaternary deposits (Qct,Qd)on the floor and lower flank of the glacial valley were observed,and no linear expression or evidence of tectonic deformation was observed.Lacking evidence of Quaternary age deformation,this feature is not considered to be an active structure. Feature 17: Feature 17 is a northeast trending photo-lineament mapped in Kahiltna Terraine Argellite,Sandstone, and Siltstone (KJs)bedrock and across Quaternary landslide (Qct)and an unlabeled unit (late Wisconsin till and/or moraine?)(Figure B-12a/b).The mapped trace of the lineament crosses the till and moraine(?)deposits,however no clear through-going linear expression was observed during low altitude aerial inspection.The mapped trace is most likely defining aligned and subtle slopes and drainages within the Quaternary deposit.Field observations and existing data indicate that this feature is likely non-tectonic in origin. Feature 18: Feature 18 is a northwest trending photo-lineament mapped in Kahiltna Terraine argellite,sandstone, siltstone (KJs)bedrock and Wisconsin age till (Qd3),and an unlabeled unit (late Wisconsin till and/or moraine?)(Figure B-12a/b).The mapped trace of the lineament is coincident with a topographic break- in-slope (apparent down-to-northeast)in bedrock.This lineament is parallel/sub-parallel,and along strike to the northwest,to a (down-to-northeast)normal fault mapped by Reger et al (1990).The two features are separated by a northeast trending glaciated valley.Low altitude aerial inspection observed an apparent fault exposure in bedrock at a topographic break-in-slope along the ridgeline.This evidence indicates that this lineament is likely a continuation of the fault trace mapped to the southeast.The Quaternary deposits between Features 18 and 20 were inspected and found to be undeformed and lacking any linear expression.Lacking evidence of Quaternary age deformation,this feature is not considered to be an active structure. Feature 19: Feature 19 is a northeast tending photo-lineament mapped in unlabeled unit (late Wisconsin till and moraine?)(Figure B-12a/b).Low altitude aerial inspection showed that the mapped linear trace correlates with a vegetated linear drainage.The lineament is made more prominent by the color INTERIM DRAFT Page 58 of 81 01/20/14 Zz ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 16-1401 -TM-012014 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. contract between the vegetation and the surrounding rocky ground surface.Observed to be an erosional feature,this lineament is likely non-tectonic in origin and not considered further. Feature 20: Feature 20 is a northwest striking photo-lineament mapped across orthogneiss and migmatite (TKgm) bedrock and Quaternary age undifferentiated colluvium (Qc)deposits (Figure B-12a/b).Low altitude aerial inspection confirmed that the mapped linear trace correlates with a linear drainage and has expression only in bedrock.No linear expression was observed in Quaternary deposits along the projected path of the feature.Lacking evidence of Quaternary age deformation,this feature is not considered to be an active structure. Features 21: Feature 21 is a northwest trending photo-lineament mapped over quartz monzonite (Tqm)bedrock and morainal deposits of Late Wisconsin age (Qm3)(Figure B-13).Low altitude aerial inspection showed that this lineament is composed of a collection of aligned features.The northern and central segments of this feature are a bedrock ridge crest leading to a linear drainage.The southern extent,in Quaternary deposits,was observed to be the crest of a debris flow levee which bounds the linear drainage.Field observations and existing data indicate that this feature is likely non-tectonic in origin. Feature 22: Feature 22 is an east-northeast trending photo-lineament mapped within a deposit of colluviated till of Illinoian age ( 120 to 170 ka)(Figure B-14a).Low altitude aerial reconnaissance observed no clearly defined linear expression to correlate with the mapped lineament.It is likely that the mapped trace represents a color contract created by glacial till along the crest of a low-relief ridge separating two drainages.Field observations and existing data indicate that this feature is likely non-tectonic in origin Feature 23: Feature 23 is an east-northeast trending photo lineament mapped across paragneiss (TKpgn)bedrock and morainal deposits of late Wisconsin age (Qm3),and till of Illinoian age (Qd2)(Figure B-14a/b). This lineament is to the east of,and along strike with,Feature 22.The two features are separated by a broad landscape mantled with Qd2.Low altitude aerial inspection observed that the mapped trace of the lineament correlates with topographic scarps and linear solifluction features.Along strike,the topographic scarps were observed to express opposing expressions of vertical displacement (down-to- northwest and down-to-southeast),an unlikely combination of geomorphic expressions for a through- going tectonic feature with vertical displacement.Geomorphic expression indicative of strike-slip or oblique faulting was not observed.No linear expression or scarps were observed within the intersecting INTERIM DRAFT Page 59 of 81 01/20/14 -Z-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 16-1401 -TM-012014 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. Quaternary deposits.Field observations and existing data indicate that this feature is likely non-tectonic in origin. Feature 24: Feature 24 is a northwest trending photo-lineament mapped in paragneiss (TKpng)bedrock for most of its length except for the northern extent where it is mapped within Quaternary age talus (Qct)deposits (Figure B-15).Reger et al.(1990)describes this lineament as one which corresponds to an offset in the floor of an east-facing cirque,the floor of which is mapped as Tkpgn.Low altitude aerial inspection of the lineament revealed that in bedrock the mapped trace consists of an alignment of variably-scaled, linear swales more likely related to glaciation rather than active tectonics.In the Quaternary deposits, the lineament corresponds to a linear drainage.Scarps and vertical displacement were not observed in the cirque floor described by Reger et al.(1990)and no evidence of tectonic origin was noted for this feature.Field observations and existing data indicate that this feature is likely non-tectonic in origin Feature 25: Feature 25 is an angled northwest trending photo-lineament.The lineament is mapped over paragneiss (TKpgn)bedrock and late Wisconsin age till (Qd3)(Figure B-15).Low altitude aerial inspection revealed that the mapped trace is coincident with a shallow linear drainage that is highlighted by an apparent vegetation color contrast.Being an erosional feature,these field observations and existing data indicate that this feature is likely non-tectonic in origin. Feature 26: Feature 26 is an east-to-west trending photo lineament mapped over bedrock for its entire trace except for the far western end (Figure B-16).At this location,it is mapped over Quaternary age talus deposits before it terminates against a bedrock knob in the center of the cirque.Visual inspection of the lineament via low altitude aerial inspection revealed no clear linear trace through the talus deposits. Within the cirque,the only along-strike linear trend is attributed to a linear drainage incised into bedrock. Feature 27: Feature 27 is an east-to-west trending photo-lineament mapped over paragneiss (TKpgn)bedrock in its middle portion and Quaternary talus (Qct)deposits on its eastern and western extents (Figure B-16). Within bedrock,no continuous linear features were observed that correspond with the mapped trace of Feature 27.Within Quaternary talus,the only linear expressions observed via low altitude aerial inspection were related to linear drainages.Field observations and existing data indicate that this feature is likely non-tectonic in origin. INTERIM DRAFT Page 60 of 81 01/20/14 -Z-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 16-1401-TM-012014Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. Feature 28: Feature 28 is a north-northwest trending photo-lineament mapped over orthogneiss and migmatite (TKgm)bedrock and Quaternary age colluviated till (Qdc3)(Figure B-17).During low altitude aerial inspection,the feature was observed to be characterized by a shallow linear trough oriented at an oblique angle to linear solifluction features and moraines,possibly indicating that this feature is related to bedrock structure.However,it has no expression in overlying Quaternary deposits or within adjacent Quaternary till deposit to the southeast.Lacking evidence of Quaternary age deformation,this feature is not considered to be an active structure. Summary of Reger et al.(1990)Lineaments This study evaluated 28 locations where photo-lineaments and faults,appearing in Reger et al.,(1990) Map 1,intersect Quaternary deposits to determine if any of these features display morphology indicative of post-glacial surface rupture and faulting.The aerial reconnaissance of these 28 features did not identify evidence of post-glacial surface rupture associated with these features.The prominence of these features on some aerial photography,linear traces,and local topographic expression can be explained through juxtaposition of different rock types with physical or erosional contrasts,linear erosion features along existing bedrock structures or down slopes,linear features associated with glacial landforms such as moraines and eskers.In addition to the visual inspection of these features,Dr.Reger was contacted,and through personal communication (Reger,2013),commented that he does not believe that any linear features identified in Reger et al.,(1990),Map |are related to active faulting.This study also judges that Reger et al.(1990)lineaments are not the result of late Quaternary faulting. 4.1 Discussion of the Talkeetna Fault Trench Locations of WCC (1982) The Talkeetna fault was characterized as a major tectonic feature near the Watana dam site by WCC (1982)although no evidence of Quaternary faulting was located during their investigations.FCL (2012, 2013)reached similar conclusions,based on the initial literature review for seismic source characterization (FCL,2012)and subsequently based on lineament mapping using LIDAR and INSAR derived DEM's (FCL,2013).The WCC (1982)investigations included paleoseismic trenching at two locations along the Talkeetna fault.As part of the 2013 field evaluation,aerial inspection and focused review of the INSAR data for those sites was conducted.Two trenches were excavated along parts of the Talkeetna fault:trench T-1 and trench T-2.Trench T-1 is located directly southwest of the Fog Lakes,and lies about 15 km from the proposed dam site (Figures 5-1 and 5-2).Trench T-2 is located much farther to the southwest,about 65 km from the proposed dam site,and is slightly west of the confluence of the Talkeetna River and Iron Creek (Figure 4-3). Low altitude aerial inspection was performed near the WCC trench T-1 site along the map trace of the Talkeetna fault,to confirm the location of the trench and observe the geology and geomorphology in the INTERIM DRAFT Page 61 of 81 01/20/14 -Z-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY ;AEA11-022SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO 46-1401-TM-012014 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. area (Figure 4-1).Ground access was not available during the 2013 summer season.From the air,the slightly west of north-facing break-in-slope is a geomorphic feature that would expected from a potential southeast-dipping,reverse to oblique-slip fault (Figure 4-1).From subsurface excavations, WCC (1982)concluded that the exposures in trench T-1 were not faulted,and the slope break "scarp”is related to the melting edge of a late Wisconsin ice margin.This scarp trenched by WCC (1982)is relatively unique compared to the other lineaments inspected during the summer 2013 field investigations and it is reasonable that this location was selected by WCC for paleoseismic investigation.However,this scarp is not readily discernible on the INSAR DEM (Figure 4-2),and thus was not captured by the lineament mapping.This area lies south of the existing detailed LIDAR data extent along the Susitna River,and additional LiDAR coverage in this area is necessary to inspect and interpret features that could be related to the scarp at the WCC T-I1 trench site that are not readily apparent on the INSAR data. A brief aerial inspection of the WCC paleoseismic trench T-2 area was performed to confirm,as best as practical,the location of the excavation,and observe the geology and geomorphology at the location (Figure 4-3).No distinct features were associated with the excavation site (e.g.tree lines,backfill mounds),so the exact trench spot was only approximately located.In general,there are linear topographic grooves along the mapped location of the Talkeetna fault.In this area,the fault juxtaposes Cretaceous sedimentary rocks (map unit KJs)on the northwest against Paleozoic volcanic rocks on the southeast.The northeast projection of the fault is shown as terminating at a hill composed of intrusive Tertiary volcanics (map unit Tvu)that were dated at slightly older than 50 ma (Csejtey,1978).WCC (1982)observed that these volcanic rocks have not been displaced.Our field inspection confirms the conclusion that the volcanic rocks show no evidence of displacement (Figure 4-3),suggesting that the fault,at least in this part of the study area,shows no evidence of movement post volcanic emplacement (early Eocene). INTERIM DRAFT Page 62 of 81 01/20/14 -Z-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 16-1401-TM-012014 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. 5.SUMMARY OF FINDINGS The purpose of the lineament mapping and evaluation is two-fold:(1)to identify potential seismic sources (i.e.,crustal faults)that could appreciably contribute to the seismic hazard at the proposed hydroelectric project and affect dam design;and (2)to identify faults and assess their potential for surface fault rupture at or near the proposed dam site area.However,because of unanticipated lack of ground access to private land (e.g.,ANCSA)in 2013 (Figure 1-3),not all planned activities were completed during the summer field season.Certain parts of select lineament groups and features in the dam site area will need to be investigated and evaluated to complete this study and to reduce remaining uncertainties. All lineament groups targeted for 2013 field work received a low-altitude aerial observation,and ground inspection was completed at selected locations (i.e.state and federal lands)where features of interest were identified and ground access was permitted.Based on the work to date and the current access restrictions,the lineament groups are placed into four categories: e Lineament groups in category I were not advanced for 2013 field observations (FCL,2013),but where convenient,brief fly-overs in 2013 were performed to visually confirm their placement in category I,with no further work suggested. e Category II includes the majority of the lineament groups and features evaluated in 2013. Lineaments in this category are judged to be 1)dominantly erosional in origin,2)related to rock bedding or jointing,or 3)to a lesser extent,a result of constructional geomorphic processes. This category is subdivided in to categories Ila and IIb.Category Ia lineament groups are those which are not evidently associated with bedrock faults.Category IIb lineament groups that do appear to be associated with bedrock faults (Category IIb).For both categories no further work is suggested. e Category III consists of lineaments which are presently unresolved due to unavailable ground access in 2013,and for which field activities and further evaluation are deferred.This category includes investigation sites most relevant to evaluations of surface faulting in the dam site area and includes the WCC trench T-1 area,Fog Creek area,and dam site and reservoir vicinities. e Category IV includes lineament groups that have defensible justification for consideration or inclusion as crustal seismic sources in an updated seismic source model.No further field work is suggested. INTERIM DRAFT Page 63 of 81 01/20/14 ---Z-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 16-1401-TM-012014 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. The overall evaluation and grouping of the lineament groups and features are summarized in Table 5-1 below.Category I includes several lineament groups not advanced for further study based primarily on distance from the site considerations derived from the evaluations in FCL (2012,2013).Table 5-2 presents a summary of lineament data,observations,and evaluations from the detailed discussions in Section 4.0. Table 5-t.Summary of Lineament Groups and Areas Category Category Description Lineament Groups Lineament groups that were not advanced for field investigation in 2013 |4,10,11,13,14,15,16,18,24,25, |based on FCL (2013)desktop evaluations.Most were not inspected during |North-South Features near Talkeetna 2013 field activities.River-Susitna River Confluence Lineament groups evaluated during 2013 field studies,and judged to be non-tectonic (dominantly erosional,depositional,or jointing/bedding in j 1,2,3a,3b,5,12a,17a,21a,21b,22, origin).No further work is recommended for evaluation as potential crustal |23,select Reger et al.(1990)features seismic sources. lla Lineament groups evaluated during 2013 field studies,and also judged to be of non-tectonic origin,but which appear to be spatially associated with IIb previously mapped bedrock faults.No evidence of Quaternary faulting was observed,and no further work is recommended for evaluation as potential crustal seismic sources 7,8,9,12b,17b,17c,19,20,Broad Pass area,Clearwater Mountains area,select Reger et al.(1990) features i Lineament groups or other areas unresolved due to unavailable ground |6,26,WCC T-1 area,Fog Creek area, access in 2013.Field activities and further evaluation are deferred.dam site and reservoir vicinities IV Lineament groups that have defensible justification for consideration or 27 (Sonona Creek fault),Castle inclusion as crustal seismic sources in an updated seismic source model.Mountain extension Many of the lineament groups visited in 2013 are judged to be dominantly erosional in origin,or to a lesser extent,related to rock bedding or jointing,are not evidently associated with tectonic faults,and are thus assigned to Category Ila (Table 5-1).These include features in lineament groups I,2,3a,3b,5, 12a,17a,21a,21b,22,and 23.Most ofthe Reger et al.(1990)photolineament features fall in Category Ila as well.A second set of lineament groups do appear to be coincident with previously mapped pre- Quaternary (i.e.bedrock)faults,but are also interpreted as erosional in origin as no evidence was found for offset or deformation of Quaternary deposits or surfaces.These are assigned to Category IIb,and include lineament groups 7,8,9,12b,17b,17c,19,20,the remaining Reger et al.(1990)features, lineaments in the Broad Pass area,and lineaments in the Clearwater Mountains area. Category III features are those that remain relatively unresolved because of the unanticipated lack of access during the summer 2013 field season.This category includes lineament group 6,lineament INTERIM DRAFT Page 64 of 81 01/20/14 -Z-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 16-1401-TM-012014 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. group 26,as well as WCC T-1 area,Fog Creek area,dam site area and reservoir vicinities.The Category III features are discussed further in Section 5.1. Category IV lineaments have defensible justification for consideration or inclusion as crustal seismic sources in an updated seismic source model,and consist of lineament group 27 (Sonona Creek fault) and lineaments of the Castle Mountain extension. Part of lineament group 27 is shown on previously published maps as offsetting Quaternary moraine landforms (i.e.Sonona Creek fault;Figure A27-3.1)and this relationship could not be confirmed nor refuted during aerial and ground field inspection.However,field investigation showed no justification for laterally extending the fault farther than already mapped.Because the Sonona Creek fault was previously included in the preliminary PSHA as a seismic source (FCL,2012),and did not result in significant contributions to the seismic hazard at the Watana site due to its low slip rate and distance from the site ( 70 km),there is little value for further field investigation of this lineament group.Based on the new field data,the updated seismic source characterization for the Sonona Creek fault should include an alternative evaluation in which the Sonona Creek fault is considered non-tectonic in order to fully represent the potential uncertainty associated with this fault. The Castle Mountain extension area includes several lineaments along mapped bedrock structures which appear to constitute a northeastern extension of this known Holocene active fault (Koehler et al.,2012). While Quaternary deposits of appreciable extent and age along these lineaments are lacking,the sharpness of geomorphic expression within the bedrock units was notable.Based on these two observations,it is prudent to consider the lineaments as part of the Holocene-active fault system,and include this within the alternatives considered for an updated crustal seismic source model.Castle Mountain fault provided modest contributions to the total hazard for the Watana site (FCL,2012),and extension of the Castle Mountain system to the northeast would increase the total fault length of this system and result in minor reduction in the closest distance to the Watana site ( 100 km in FCL,2012). Based on the results from this study,an updated seismic source characterization might consider alternative seismic source models which include potential northeastern extensions of the Castle Mountain fault. 5.1 Unresolved Lineaments and Areas The unanticipated lack of ground access in certain areas has resulted in a number of potential seismically significant features that remain to be fully addressed during the future studies.These features are shown in Table 5-1 as Category III,and mostly relate to features along the projection of the map trace of the Talkeetna fault,and features identified in areas proximal to the dam site and reservoir vicinity. "A INTERIM DRAFT Page 65 of 81 01/20/14 -Z-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 16-1401-TM-012014 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. Lineament group 6 ( 14 km [ 9 miles]from the dam site)and the WCC trench T-1 site are along the projection of the map trace of the Talkeetna fault,and ground access was unavailable for the T-1 site area as well as the southern part of lineament group 6 near the Susitna River.To facilitate a thorough investigation of these areas,new additional LiDAR data should be acquired for as an expansion to the existing project LIDAR coverage.Review and interpretation of the LiDAR data will further assist in the evaluation of landscape expression of the Talkeetna fault along lineament group 6 and the WCC T-1 area,and provide a platform for closing the gap on the remaining uncertainties of this mapped fault. This would include evaluation of features in the Fog Creek area,mid-way between lineament group 6 and the WCC T-1 area,where key bedrock outcrops mapped by Acres (1982)appear to define limits on the Talkeetna fault trace. Based on the work to date,lineament group 26 (2 km [ 1 miles]from the dam site)appears to be of erosional origin and not associated with bedrock faults.However,based on its proximity to the dam site,coupled with the lack of access to potentially important stratigraphic exposures in the vicinity of Tsusena Creek,lineament group 26 has been assigned to category III. Evaluation of the dam site area for potential surface faulting and studies on the reservoir area were not able to be accomplished during the summer 2013 season,and remain to be investigated as access becomes available.For evaluation of potential surface faulting at the dam site and near the reservoir,a key issue is the underlying resolution of the lineament mapping observations from the INSAR and LiDAR DEM data.As noted in Section 3.1 and the individual feature discussions in Section 4,many of the features mapped on the INSAR base map are of a scale larger than would be expected to be associated with low-to moderately-active tectonic features.One aspect of the evaluations of lineaments near the dam site that will be needed for future studies will be more direct on-ground comparisons of the scales of features mapped,and not mapped,on the LIDAR and INSAR DEM datasets in areas where they overlap.These comparisons would be most useful in the areas nearby the dam site and reservoir, along the Talkeetna fault,and in areas such as Fog Creek,and near the WCC T-1 trench site lineament. Such on-ground comparisons would provide a direct basis for evaluation of the resolution of the INSAR and LiDAR DEM data for detection of potential lineaments and tectonic features in key areas near the dam site.The acquisition of additional LiDAR data and geologic mapping on the existing and new LiDAR base maps will be useful to completing this assessment. INTERIM DRAFT Page 66 of 81 01/20/14 Ze SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA11-022 16-1401-TM-012014 Table 5-2.Lineament Data Summarized from Section 4.0 Group Previously Approximate Approximate Lineament N 'Source of Previous Mapping Distance to Dam |Length of Group 2013 Lineament Summary Observations 2013 Lineament Summary InterpretationsumberMapped?Sitet (km)(km)Category Late Quaternary deposits along the Jack River,of late Wisconsin and post-The absence of continuity of the individual lineaments from steep bedrock glacial age intersect the projected trace of the group 1 lineaments near the slopes into areas adjacent areas of lower slopes where Quaternary deposits are 1 N -51 20 center of the group 1 ellipse.These late Quaternary deposits show no present is evidence of non-tectonic origin for these features.The lineaments of lla apparent expression of the lineament.No evidence of fault structure was group 1 are likely non-tectonic in origin,are judged to be primarily erosional observed during low-level aerial inspection.and/or landslide features. Mapped Quaternary surficial sediments,fluvial deposits in several unnamed Based on the irregular apparent throw of the lineaments along strike,lack of drainages,a glacial moraine,and an alluvial fan deposit show no apparent western continuity into the Cretaceous Kahiltna flysch,and absence of deflection or deformation where overlying the projected trace of the lineament |expression in Quaternary units along the feature,the likelihood of a tectonic 2 N -46 12 group.In all instances,lineaments with clear expression in bedrock lose origin for the lineaments in group 2 is judged to be low.The limited and Ila expression at contacts with Quaternary deposits and landforms.ambiguous expression of lineament features outside of the Tertiary volcanic rocks within the Cretaceous flysch,suggests that the observed trend may represent erosion along internal bedrock structure. The lineaments mapped in Quaternary (post-glacial)deposits along group 3a Lineaments within groups 3a and 3b are not associated with previously mapped do not show neotectonic expression or offset.While the group 3a lineaments faults,are predominantly erosional in origin,and show no evidence of offsetting 3a N _40 12 are mapped across several different geologic units,they appear erosional in Quaternary deposits.When considered individually,there is little evidence to llaorigin.The exception to this is the ridge in the Cretaceous Kahiltna flysch in support the lineaments as a fault structure.When considered collectively,there which field observations found a color contrast (Figure A3a.2)that may be is little similarity in their landscape expression across the two groups to support structurally-controlled,or may just as equally be stratigraphically controlled.positive interpretation of a linked,through-going crustal structure. No Quaternary deposits are previously mapped,but ground-based inspection Lineaments within groups 3a and 3b are not associated with previously mapped indicate that there are youthful (Holocene)deposits in cirques and drainage faults,are predominantly erosional in origin,and show no evidence of offsetting 3b N _97 49 valleys,as well as rock glacier deposits.Although these are very young Quaternary deposits.When considered individually,there is little evidence to ladeposits,there are no expression of lineaments in these deposits.The support the lineaments as a fault structure.When considered collectively,theremorphologyofthelineamentisinconsistentalongstrike,showing north-facing _]is little similarity in their landscape expression across the two groups to support slope breaks,south-facing slope breaks,as well as v-shaped notches.positive interpretation of a linked,through-going crustal structure. This lineament group was not advanced for field work in 2013 based on the A limited number of low-altitude fly-overs in 2013 appear to confirm the desktop desktop analysis of FCL (2013)conclusion that the group 4 features are pre-Quaternary.Rock-type contrasts 4 Y 2009)fault of Wilson et al 23 11 were observed across the previously mapped NE-trending thrust fault but no | prominent tectonic geomorphology to suggest Quaternary activity was observed along strike in post-glacial surficial deposits nor in the bedrock. Along its eastern extent,the trend of individual lineament groups is generally While the lineament group does traverse different geologic units and landforms parallel to ice-flow direction expressed as fluted and grooved topography ina |suggesting a continuity of structure,the lineaments show an inconsistent general east-west orientation.There is no evidence that the ice-scoured kinematic expression along strike within the same rock unit (Cretaceous Partial coincidence with an surfaces are cross-cut or otherwise offset by the lineaments.Along the turbidites)that tends to not support the presence of a tectonic structure for 5 Y unnamed lineament of Wilson et al.40 23 eastern extent of the group,the lineaments'morphologic expression as side-creating the lineaments.It is judged that the lineaments along group 5 are the lla (2009)hill benches would imply an extensional-type kinematics (i.e.,down-to-the-result of bedding orientations in the Cretaceous turbidite units and elsewhere south);along the western extent the morphologic expression varies as both from fluvial or glacial erosion,and do not represent a tectonic fault uphill and downhill facing scarps,linear grooves,and drainages that would imply a translational-type kinematics. INTERIM DRAFT Page 67 of 81 01/20/14 Zz SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA11-022 16-1401-TM-012014 .Approximate Approximate Li tGroupPreviouslySourceofPreviousMappingDistancetoDam|Length of Group 2013 Lineament Summary Observations 2013 Lineament Summary Interpretations ineamen Number Mapped?Sitet (km)(km)Category Previous studies result in a fair degree of disagreement as to the location and |The lineaments mapped within group 6 are judged to be the result of erosion of character of the (inferred)Talkeetna fault in the area of lineament group 6.tributary drainages and fluvial erosion to create terrace risers along the creeks Field evidence of a fault structure was not observed along or in the immediate |and are not likely tectonically-related.Further,there is an absence of vicinity of lineament group 6,and no evidence was observed along the expression of the Talkeetna fault in Quaternary deposits and surfaces present Talkeetna thrust fault of Csejtey et projection of the fault trace and Delusion Creek.The lineaments are expressed |along the uplands adjacent to Watana Creek.However,additional LIDAR data 6 Y al.(1978);WCC,(1982);and Wilson 14 17 as linear drainages or erosional gullies oriented sub-orthogonal to the is being collected to provide complete coverage for the area of lineament group IH et al.(2009)Talkeetna fault trace(s),and principally are developed in late Quaternary 6 and the mapped Talkeetna thrust fault.Additional future work for lineament glaciat drift (till)and glacio-lacustrine (lake)deposits.Field observations of group 6 should include review of these new high-resolution data to confirm that Quaternary stratigraphic outcrops along Watana Creek suggest that the the current interpretations are still supported. contact between the overlying lake and underlying till deposits is planar, unbroken,and apparently untilted. Unnamed shear zone of Wilson et The lineaments transect young valley floor glacial sediments as well as The geomorphic inconsistencies,coupled with the fact that the Quaternary |.(2009),a mapped thrust fault elevated bedrock ridgelines.There was no field evidence that linear strain deposits in the valley floors are not disrupted,strongly indicates that erosionalal.(PP -Belk markers were deformed or displaced,however the glacial sediments are from |process of creek incision and downcutting into surface deposits along thevaneoelelereei2847rockglacierprocesses,and few older landforms were observed along this south-flowing drainages are likely responsible for creating the lineaments.fb7Yetal,-achadoorian an 0 group.The expression of the lineament is inconsistent along strike with an Lineaments of group 7 generally coincide with mapped bedrock structuresMoore,1979;and Clautice,199 )apparent stronger expression where mapped along fluvial drainages,and no within fault-line-valleys but lineaments in late Quaternary deposits areandanortheast-trending anticline expression in WNW-oriented cirque-floors or valleys.inconsistently expressed and likely relate to processes of erosion.No evidenceaxisCsejteyetal.(1978)of Quaternary deformation was observed. The lineaments are expressed in ice-scoured bedrock uplands and a thin Lineament group 8 does not exhibit relative consistency of geomorphic cover of glacial and colluvial deposits subject to solifluction.Glacial striae expression along strike.The apparent structural kinematics (dip-slip)based on Coincidence with feature KD5-44 of north of the Susitna River do not appear consistently deformed or displaced mapped contact relations (Wilson etal.,2009)for the middle and southern WCC (1982);Partial coincidence across the trend of the lineament and several small streams that cross the portion of the group are not consistent with the undeformed contact relations8YwithanunnamedfaultofWilsonet3826lineamentsarenotconsistentlylaterallyoffsetordeflected.Aerial inspection between turbidite rocks of the Cretaceous and Paleocene rocks near the IIb did reveal the oxidized mafic dike on the northern canyon wall of the Susitna Susitna River,and also the lack of deformation in turbidite rocks north of theal.(2009)River that WCC (1982)observed projecting across the observed lineament river.The evidence supports the origin as a fault-line-scarp (an erosional trend but discovered the same ambiguous and poor exposure conditions feature aligned with a mapped bedrock fault). described by WCC. The mapped lineaments transect mapped bedrock units,but are not Based on the mapped geologic contacts along the southern portion of the expressed in the limited extent of Quaternary surficial deposits present along group,the apparent sense of offset is right-lateral with possible unknown Coincidence with feature KC5-5 of the group.No lineaments were observed in early Holocene fluvial deposits oblique component.This is kinematically inconsistent with the mapping north of WCC (1982);Partial coincidence within a broad depression or across the extent of a post-glacial landslide.the Susitna River because the mapped the contact there between Cretaceous 9 Y with an unnamed lineament and an 31 24 Although a rock-type contrast does exist across portions of the lineament,the |Kahiltna and Paleocene granitics is apparently undeformed and undisplaced IIb unnamed fault of Wilson et al.current mapping compilation may be too simplified and more irregularity of where the lineament group projects across the contact.No evidence of (2009)bedrock unit contacts likely exists.The magnitude of expression and apparent |expression in Quaternary units,landforms,or strain markers was observed. sense of deformation observed in the field is inconsistent along lineament Lineament group 9 is interpreted to represent a fault-line scarp and not a group trend.Quaternary tectonic feature. This lineament group was not advanced for field work in 2013 based on the During limited flyovers,no features were observed that suggested a need to 40 N _70 97 desktop analysis of FCL (2013)that the lineament group is over 70 km ( 44 revise those conclusions. miles)from the proposed dam site and less than 40 km ( 25 miles)long,and likely would not appreciably contribute to the hazard calculations. Coincidence with an unnamed This lineament group was not advanced for field work in 2013 based on the Limited overflight of these features in 2013 appears to confirm this conclusion. 1 Y lineament and an unnamed fault of 40 48 desktop analysis of FCL (201 3)suggesting that surficial processes are likely In addition,the group is greater than 30 km ( 19 miles)from the proposed site Wilson et al.(2008)exploiting existing topographic position and/or local weaknesses in the and is less than 20 km ( 12 miles)in length,and likely would not appreciably'underlying Cretaceous Khalinta flysch bedrock to create the lineaments.contribute to the hazard calculations. INTERIM DRAFT Page 68 of 81 01/20/14 Zz ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 16-1401-TM-012014 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. .Approximate Approximate .Group Previously Source of Previous Mapping Distance to Dam Length of Group 2013 Lineament Summary Observations 2013 Lineament Summary Interpretations Lineament Number Mapped?Sitet (km)(km)Category The individual lineaments mapped along the north part of the group chiefly are |There are no lineaments expressed in the Quaternary deposits along about the within probable latest Wisconsin-age glacial deposits near the valley margin,southern half of group 12a,and there is visual evidence that right-lateral and are oriented along the ice flow direction.A prominent notch with an uphill-|moraine and kame terrace features at the southern end of the group are notfacingslopebreakwasobservedwithinthePaleozoicrocksalongthenoseof|offset.There is no expression of deformation or offset of late Wisconsin a ridge.The topographic expression of this lineament feature on the ridge landforms in kames or delta surfaces within the valley of Fog Creek directly 12 N _44 49 topography implies a northwest-dipping structure geometry,similar to bedded |north.Multiple slope breaks on the hillslope in the vicinity of the mapped llarockexposedontheothersideofthemountains.The morphology of the lineaments,as well as the lineament orientation parallel to ice flow directions, features is kinematically inconsistent along strike,with south-east facing suggests the lineament group was produced by glacial deposits that are now downhill slope breaks found on the lineaments in the Quaternary deposits,and |undergoing solifluction and nivation processes.It is judged that the lineaments an uphill facing slope break on the bedrock notch feature.within group 12a are the result of both past glacial processes,ongoing hillslope erosion processes,and potentially bedding relationships within the Paleozoic rocks,and do not represent a tectonic fault. The lineaments are expressed chiefly in Paleozoic rocks,however,a thin The lineament is chiefly constrained to within the Paleozoic rocks,and is cover of Holocene regolith mantles the rocks.The morphologic expression of |coincident with the previously mapped bedrock fault,suggesting a potentialthefeatureisinciseddrainagesandaverybroadanddeepvalleywithinwhich|structural control and preferential erosion along a pre-existing weakness. a small creek now flows.None of the glacial geomorphic surfaces in Fog Internal lithologic control on the geomorphic expression of the lineament also is .Creek valley (e.g.eskers,deltas)along the southwestern projection of the plausible given the lack of lineament continuity beyond the Paleozoic rocks.12b Y Unnamed fault of Clautice,(1990)6 "lineaments were observed to be offset or deformed,and no evidence of The evaluation suggests that glacial and post-glacial fluvial erosional processes IIb deformation was observed at the Susitna River margin along the northeastern |are a likely explanation for the origin of the lineament features.Individual projection.The lineament group appears to have a variable geomorphic lineaments may represent fault-line scarps or fault-line-valleys,but due to the expression along strike,has weak kinematic indicators along strike.lack of expression in Quaternary deposits,the lineament group is not considered a Quaternary tectonic structure. This lineament group was not advanced for field work in 2013 based on the During limited flyovers,no features were observed that suggested a need to 13 Y Coincidence with unnamed fault of 67 45 desktop analysis of FCL (2013).Also,because of the large distance from the |revise the conclusions of FCL (2013).,Wilson et al.(2009)site,the group would therefore likely have limited contribution to the hazard calculations. This lineament group was not advanced for field work in 2013 based on the A limited fly-over revealed no features that that suggested a need for additional 44 Y Coincidence with unnamed fault of 62 48 desktop analysis of FCL (2013).The group is greater than 30 km ( 19 miles)analysis.|Wilson et al.(2009)from the site and less than 20 km ( 12 miles)in aggregate length,thus meeting lineament exclusion criteria. ;This lineament group was not advanced for field work in 2013 based on the During limited flyovers,no features were observed that suggested a need for 45 Y Coincidence with unnamed fault of 43 6 desktop analysis of FCL (2013)due to its large distance from the proposed additional analysis.|Wilson et al.(2009)damsite ( 43 km [ 27 miles])and short aggregate length ( 6 km [ 4 miles}). Partial coincidence with an This lineament group was not advanced for field work in 2013 based on the .During limited flyovers,no features were observed that suggested a need for 16 Y unnamed lineament of Wilson et al 60 49 desktop analysis of FCL (2013).The group was excluded from further analysis |additional analysis.(2008),on basis on its significant distance to the proposed damsite ( 60 km [ 37 miles])and relatively short aggregate length ( 19 km [ 12 miles}). Field investigation revealed that the lineaments in Quaternary deposits at the Lineament group 17a appears to follow a bedrock jointing pattern that is Unnamed lineament of Wilson et al south end of group 17a do not show scarp-like morphologies;rather one isa expressed on landscape,and potentially enhanced by fluvial erosion.Based on17aY(2009) '24 11 small,discordant,creek drainage and the other appears to be a depositional the absence of compelling evidence for Quaternary tectonism,lineament group lla contact of likely late Holocene grassy swale (bog)sediments against a near-17a is judged to not represent a tectonic fault. surface ice-sculpted bedrock buttress. INTERIM DRAFT Page 69 of 81 01/20/14 Zz ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 16-1401-TM-012014 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. .Approximate Approximate . Group Previously Source of Previous Mapping Distance to Dam Length of Group 2013 Lineament Summary Observations 2013 Lineament Summary Interpretations Lineament Number Mapped?Sitet (km)(km)Category The most prominent morphologic expression of the lineaments is a narrow The ground inspection supports the interpretation that glacial ice was present in Unnamed lineament of Wilson et al.creek drainage that is fed by a perched lake.The lineaments appear to the valley.Although there may be a bedrock structure along part of this group 17b Y (2009);and dashed fault of Csejtey 30 20 coincide with the trend of glacial ice flow directions that were valley parallel.that separates Paleozoic and Mesozoic rocks,lineament group 17b is judged to IIb (1974)No direct evidence of a fault along this trend was found in the field.be created at the local scale by fluvial erosion as well as in part by glacial ice erosion of the linear valley and periglacial processes. The lineaments are mapped across Tertiary volcanic rocks as well as in young |Along the south end of 17c group the relief along the lineament in the (likely Holocene)rock glacier deposits;the expression within the rock glacier Quaternary rock glaciers is lesser than the middle part of the group,however, Unnamed fault of Wilson et al deposits correspond to relatively deep drainages eroded into the rock glacier the relief in the rock glacier drainage is about 25 meters ( 82 ft);much larger17cY(2009) ,45 8 deposits.None of the faults depicted on Wilson (2009)are shown extending than would be expected for a relatively low-slip rate fault structure in young tb across or displacing Quaternary glacial or moraine deposits.post-glacial deposits.While the presence of a bedrock fault cannot be ruled out along lineament group 17c,it is judged that the mapped lineament is the result of erosion into the rock glacier deposit. This lineament group was not advanced for field work in 2013 based on the This group was not visited during the 2013 field inspections and no Partial coincidence with two desktop analysis of FCL (2013)which concluded that the group's large observations were made that suggested a need for additional analysis. 18 Y unnamed faults of Wilson et al.52 10 distance to the proposed damsite and short overall length would likely not | (1998)appreciably contribute to the hazard calculations. The lineaments of group 19 transect several different geologic units and The large magnitude of relief across the lineaments in the northeastern portion landforms,but are not present in the post-glacial alluvium of Goose Creek or is inconsistent with the apparent lack of topographic offset across the adjacent drainages.The magnitude of expression of the lineaments ranges lineaments in the southwest portion of the group.Specifically,the surfaces of Partial coincidence with unnamed from 10-m-high ( 33 ft)downhill facing slope breaks in glacial deposits of the |the exceptionally planar bedrock plateau across which the aligned linear valleys19YfaultofClautice(1990)54 44 Black River to gently sloping 125-m-high ( 410 ft)bedrock escarpments.run show no evidence of the vertical displacement apparent along the lineament IIb Bedrock exposures in creeks along the lineament showed evidence of group.It is judged that lineament group 19 is a result of a combination of pervasive jointing.The lineament group is roughly parallel to glacial ice flow bedrock jointing and glacial and post-glacial erosion processes,and does not directions in the Black River canyon and spatially coincident with left-lateral ice |represent at Quaternary fault. margins. No direct evidence of any of the mapped faults was apparent in the field but Low-level aerial and ground inspection did not reveal any evidence for Partial coincidence with unnamed indirect evidence in the form of apparent rock type contrasts across mapped Quaternary faulting along the mapped lineaments or previously mapped faults. 20 Y normal fault of Wilson et al.(2009)94 14 fault traces.There is no field evidence of erosion from glacial ice within the Some of the individual lineaments along the northwestern margin of group 20 IIbdfaultmappedbGrantz(1960)area of the lineament group.The mapped lineaments often alternate between |do appear to coincide with previously mapped bedrock faults and are likelyanppedryweaklyexpressedandsubtleslopebreaksandbroadtroughsanddeepandfault-line scarps developed along bedrock faults,but the remaining lineaments well-defined linear valleys.are interpreted to be the result of erosion and not tectonically-related. Lineament group 21a lies entirely with glaciated terrain at the confluence of The lineaments of group 21a do not transect portions of the landscape of possibly four different ice streams.Field inspection confirmed that most of the |different ages which challenges the existence of through-going tectonicareahaseitherasurficialcoverofglacialmoraineand/or glacial lake deposits |structure.The apparent origins of the lineaments are both constructional 1a N _40 42 from a series of glacial lakes.No field evidence of displaced or deformed (terminal moraine complex and eskers)and erosional (linear streams and short ilaterracerisersormoraineridgeswasobservedalongthetrendoftheslopebreaksindissectedg!acial moraine ridges.Limited and poor expression lineaments.The lineaments of group 21a are few in number,weakly of lineaments coupled with both active and stagnant ice processes in the area, expressed,weakly aligned,and do not coincide with a previously mapped point to a non-tectonic glacial origin for the lineaments of group 21a. structure. INTERIM DRAFT Page 70 of 81 01/20/14 -Z- SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA11-022 16-1401-TM-012014 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. .Approximate Approximate . Group Previously Source of Previous Mapping Distance to Dam Length of Group 2013 Lineament Summary Observations 2013 Lineament Summary Interpretations Lineament Number Mapped?Sitet (km)(km)Category The lineaments occur as downhill-facing slope breaks in mapped Quaternary _|Field investigation did confirm the expression of the 3-km-long,downhill-facing glacial deposits (unit Qdts of Smith et al.(1988))and as linear streams and slope break in Quaternary glacial deposits but did not reveal any exposures of gulleys eroded into Cretaceous flysch,and to a lesser extent,Cretaceous the spatially-coincident concealed schist-phyllite contact mapped by Smith Coincides with a photographic granite.Map unit Qdts is considered to be of late Wisconsin age (11,800 to (1988).The group 21b lineament most likely relates to the rock type contrasts 21b N lineament mapped by Reger et al.42 12 25,000 year B.P.).The lineament group is oriented perpendicular to the ice mapped by Smith et al.(1988)where higher grade (and more resistant)schist Ila (1990)flow directions within the Butte Creek valley.Inspection of the stream banks lies upslope of the slightly lower grade (and less resistant)phyllite and is and terrace risers located to the west along the trend of the feature did not overlain by a thin veneer of Quaternary glacial deposits.The lineaments of reveal any displaced terrace risers or surfaces.Group 21a are judged to be non-tectonic in origin and likely relate to differential erosion along depositional contacts within bedded metasedimentary rocks. The lineaments are mapped in Reger et al.'s till of late Wisconsin age (unit The lineaments of group 22 show a dearth of expression in Quaternary Qd3;9,500 to 25,000 years old)(Reger Public Data file 90-1),and are deposits,other than being associated with two linear drainages.While the Spatially coincides with several expressed in the field as linear erosional gullies.Much of the hillsides appear |lineaments transect several different geologic units,suggesting some lateral 90 N northwest-trending photogeologic 97 47 to be influenced by solifluction processes.Along Deadman Creek,the extent,we find that the magnitude of expression along strike is highly variable.llalineamentsfromReetoral(1990)lineaments are nearly orthogonal to the ice flow direction,and no offsets in the |Because there is no fault previously mapped along this group and no evidenceg.lateral moraines were observed.of a fault was observed,coupled with the field observations of solifluction processes as well as a distinct lack of faulting expression in the late Wisconsin glacial deposits,it is judged that lineament group 22 is not a fault. The features along the lineament trend occur entirely within mapped The arcing alignment and the consistently low relief morphology of the aligned Quaternary glacial and lake deposits of the Copper River Basin.The slope-breaks,low mounds,and short linear ridges does appear similar to a lineaments do not coincide with any previously mapped faults or lineaments terminal moraine complex.The positive relief of these features suggests (FCL,2013)and low-level aerial inspection did not reveal any direct evidence constructional or depositional geomorphic processes,rather than via tectonic 23 N -62 17 of tectonic structures anywhere along the lineament,including in the near-processes,may have played a role in their formation.The lineament group lies Ila vertical cut banks of Tyone Creek.The orientation of the mapped lineaments is |within published glacial lake extents and elevations in the Copper Basin.Theparalleltoseveralnorth-south oriented drumlins,and perpendicular to regional |evidence points to a genesis via glacial processes,and does not support a ice-flow directions,but parallel to and locally coincident with terminal moraine tectonic genesis.It is judged that lineament group 23 does not represent a crests tectonic fault. This lineament group was not advanced for field work in 2013 based on the This group was not visited during the 2013 field inspections and no 4 Y Partial coincidence with lineament of 420 44 desktop analysis of FCL (2013)that the lineament group is short ( 15 km [ 9 |observations were made that suggested a need for additional analysis. Wilson et al.(2009)miles])and lies a great distance from the damsite ( 120 km [ 75 miles]),and likely would not appreciably contribute to the hazard calculations. This lineament group was not advanced for field work in 2013 based on the During limited flyovers,no features were observed that suggested a need to desktop analysis of FCL (2013).The lineament group was interpreted to be revise those conclusions.25 N --23 32 .a:.|the result of erosional and depositional processes,chiefly the apparent alignment of several large,curvilinear glacial valleys. Neither direct nor indirect field evidence of fault structures were observed An esker landform on the south side of the Susitna River appears to be along this lineament group.South of the Susitna River,the lineaments are continuous where it extends across the mapped lineament,indicating no mapped in glacially-sculpted terrain that shows geomorphic landforms deformation since its emplacement.Because of the absences of previously indicative of stagnant ice.North of the Susitna River,the lineaments principally |mapped structures or faults,the lack of field evidence of faults,and the are mapped in a linear drainage in whose upper banks are exposures of till apparent positive evidence for non-faulting or displacement vis-a-vis the 26 N _16 13 that overlies lacustrine and fluvial deposits.The lineament group is relatively undeformed esker deposit (>11 ka in age),it is judged that the lineament group Ul discordant with the ice flow direction.Assessment of kinematics of the is erosional in origin and does not represent a fault structure.However,ground lineament morphology is indeterminate because there a near absence of access for this lineament group was restricted during the 2013 field geomorphic expression of tectonic-related features.investigations,and due to the close spatial proximity to the dam site,this lineament group warrants additional study to confirm the absence of bedrock structure along these features. INTERIM DRAFT Page 71 of 81 01/20/14 we SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA11-022 16-1401-TM-012014 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. G Previous!Approximate Approximate Lineamentrouprevious'y Source of Previous Mapping Distance to Dam |Length of Group 2013 Lineament Summary Observations 2013 Lineament Summary InterpretationsNumberMapped?Sitet (km)(km)Category The lineament is expressed in late Quatermary glacial drift and glacial lake The expression of lineaments in a portion of the landscape judged to be the deposits as a series of aligned lakes,linear lakes and swales,vegetation youngest,and the absence of observed deformation (lateral or vertical)in the lineaments,low-relief ( 2-m-high)ridges,but the apparent sense of adjacent Tolson Creek Moraines,which are older,is inconsistent with an origin Coincidence with Sonona Creek displacement is not consistent along the lineament group.Williams and by faulting.Field investigation did not reveal any definitive evidence to strongly 27 Y fault mapped by Williams and 62 50 Galloway's (1986)depict the Sonona Creek fault as truncating,cutting across,|refute nor strongly support the presence of the mapped portion of the Sonona IV Galloway (1986)and also terminating into different ridges of the Tolson Creek moraine Creek fault.The field observations from this study favor a non-tectonic complex.Ground investigation and aerial inspection of the Tolson Creek interpretation for this feature,but are not sufficiently strong to rule out the moraines did not reveal perceptible lateral or vertical deformation along the potential of late Quaternary faulting. projection of the mapped fault A strong fabric of northeast-trending glacial features characterizes the Low altitude fly-overs of the partly-forested,partly-wetland surface of the geomorphology in the Chulitna Valley,with numerous landforms such as Chulitna valley found no evidence of Quaternary faulting,and the surficial drumlins,and glacial striae occurring throughout the valley.Existing geologic |geology and geomorphology observed was uninterrupted and undeformed.This Coincidence with dashed faults mapping depicts pre-Quaternary faults that apparently place Paleozoic and argues that the deposit has not experienced tectonic deformation since its Broad Pass Y mapped by Csejtey (1961)and 56 Several;various Mesozoic rocks against each other,or Paleozoic and Mesozoic rocks against emplacement,supporting an interpretation of no late Quaternary or post-glacial IIbFaultAreaWilsonetal.(1998)lengths Tertiary sedimentary rock units.These older rocks are in turn overlain by faulting.The lineaments mapped within the Chulitna River valley are oriented Quaternary glacial and fluvial sediments that are no older than late Wisconsin |along the direction of ice flow,and generally are located along the margins of age.Several locations were investigated as part of the assessment of geomorphic features (e.g.drumlins,kettle edges)that are genetically related to previously mapped faults in the Chulitna River valley.Faults mapped as glacial flow and related processes.Thus,none of the lineaments mapped in bounding Tertiary units could not be confirmed due to lack of exposure.this area are considered tectonic in origin. The lineaments are both discordant and concordant with glacial ice-flow Indirect evidence of fault structure was observed in several locations within the directions;some lineaments may be expressing the ice-limit elevations at the core of the Clearwater Mountains in the high elevation bedrock terrain above bedrock-glacial moraine contact.No field evidence of deformed Quaternary-the valley floor in the form of contrasting rock-type juxtapositions that _.age linear strain markers along the trend of mapped lineaments or faults was corroborate the general locations of the mapped faults.No field evidence of Clearwater Coincidence with faults mapped by:Several;various }Observed.Field investigation did not reveal any through-going and laterally Quaternary activity along the mapped traces of the Talkeetna thrust,westwardYSmith(1981),Silberling at al.63 tinuous aggregations of individual lineaments or tilted tectonic markers extension of the Broxson Gulch,or Black Creek faults was observed.IIbMtnsAreadCsejteyetal.(1992)lengths continu ggreg :(1981),and Csejtey et al (such as shorelines or terraces)at the southern foot of the mountains that The lineaments mapped along the southern slopes of the Clearwater Mountainscouldbedefinitivelylinkedtoatectonicorigin.Post-glacial landforms and do not coincide with previously mapped faults and are interpreted to be of non-deposits did not express any lineaments and appear undeformed.tectonic origin,and likely is originated by glacial processes and the morphology of left-lateral moraine deposits. Field evidence for faulting observed during low-level aerial inspection includes:|Although a core group of lineaments within this group coincide with mapped apparent bedrock type juxtapositions,bedrock color change associated with faults,others do not.The mapped lineaments that do not coincide with alteration zones,and deformation of bedrock units.All apparent evidence was |previously mapped faults are attributed to be linear drainages (erosion features) observed in bedrock and no linear expression or evidence of faulting was and lineaments related to structural grain of the bedrock (lithologic control).No abserved in Quaternary deposits,although Quaternary deposits were scarce.|definitive evidence was encountered that precludes a scenario where this The Castle Mountain fault is a Quaternary deposits in the vicinity of the Castle Mountain fault extension segment of aligned features ruptures as an extension of the Castle MountainCastleMtnYQuaternaryseismogenicstructure10021lineamentgrouphavelimitedspatialcoverageandmostcommonlyoccurasfault.If the group of aligned features acts as an extension of the Castle IVextension(Koehler et al.,2012)fluvial deposits found within in narrow canyons.Because of the limited Mountain fault,it could extend the fault by approximately 21 km ( 13 miles)to exposure of the Quaternary deposits and the segmented and splayed the northeast of the current mapped extent of the fault as shown in Koehler et characteristics of the mapped faults in this area,it is difficult to declare that all |al.(2012).Based on the observations that these features are clearly related to segments of this fault exhibit no Quaternary activity.faulting of late Cenozoic age,we suggest adding this segment of fault-related features to the crustal seismic source model as a northeast extension of the Castle Mountain fault rupture scenario. INTERIM DRAFT Page 72 of 81 01/20/14 -Z- SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA11-022 16-1401-TM-012014 G Previous|Approximate Approximate Lineamentroupevious'y Source of Previous Mapping Distance to Dam |Length of Group 2013 Lineament Summary Observations 2013 Lineament Summary Interpretations camen Number Mapped?:CategorySitet(km)(km) North-South This area was not advanced for field work in 2013 based on the desktop This group was not visited during the 2013 field inspections and no Features near Unnamed.normal faults are analysis of FCL (2013)on the basis of the features'large distance (i.e.,>70 observations were made that suggested a need for additional analysis. Talkeetna Y identified in revious mapping b 85 43 km [>40 miles])to the proposed dam site and their poor expression in the River-Susitna Wilson et al 1998;2008)gy surrounding Quaternary sediments and Tertiary granodiorite outcrops as River ',manifested in the INSAR data. Confluence Reger's (1990)Photogeologic Lineament Features Reger,1990,Geologic Map of the At its southern extent,this lineament is mapped across Quaternary age This linear feature is coincident with the linear toe of a rock glacier advancing Healy A-3 Quadrangle,Alaska.landslide (Qct)and rock glacier (Qcg)deposits within a narrow south facing downslope from the eastern cirque wall.The linear trace through the Alaska Division of Geological and 20 2.95 cirque.On the ground,this lineament is expressed as a mild inflection in the Quaternary deposits shows no evidence of being caused by a tectonic feature.Rt Y Geophysical Surveys,Public Data 'slope angle.Down drainage,to the south,the lineament has no expression in Hla File 90-1 sheet 1 of 2 the valley floor sediments. Reger,1990,Geologic Map of the A northwest trending photo-lineament mapped over a quartz monzonite gneiss |It appears likely that the lineament represents a collection of small and Healy A-3 Quadrangle,Alaska.(TKqmg)and paragneiss (TKpng)bedrock ridge and terminated in Wisconsin unrelated linear features such as:vegetation lineaments,glacial features, Alaska Division of Geological and age till (Qd3)at its northwest extent.The mapped trace of the feature overlies |joints/bedding rather than having a tectonic origin. obliquely oriented linear glacial striations within the bedrock.No clear linearR2Yaeoaedney°Public Data 25 'expression with the same orientation as the mapped lineament was observed Na File 90-1 sheet 1 0 in the terrain.Quaternary deposits at the northwest and southeast extent of the mapped lineament were visually inspected,and no linear expression was observed. Reger,1990,Geologic Map of the A west-northwest trending phato-lineament mapped across Wisconsin age till |The mapped lineament is expressed by two prominent slope breaks and a Healy A-3 Quadrangle,Alaska.(Qd3),moraine (Qm3),and abandoned meltwater channel alluvium (Qac)linear trace coincident with a moraine crest.This evidence indicates that the Alaska Division of Geological and deposits.The western and central segments of this lineament are coincident mapped trace correlates with glacial features and is likely non-tectonic in origin. R3 Y Geophysical Surveys,Public Data 25 3 with two prominent breaks-in-slope on the northeastern margin of a U-shaped lla ;4 sh £9 glacial valley.The eastern portion of the feature is coincident with a linear toFile90-1 sheet 1 semi-arcuate moraine.The lineament has no expression within the Qac deposits near the center of the mapped trace. Reger,1990,Geologic Map of the Aclear expression of these sub-parallel faults was not observed in the bedrock |Lacking evidence of Quaternary age deformation,these features are not Healy A-3 Quadrangle,Alaska.during low altitude aerial inspection.Intersecting Quaternary (Qd3)deposits considered to be active structures. R4&R5 Y Alaska Division of Geological and 28 were observed to have no linear expression or fault related deformation.lla Geophysical Surveys,Public Data File 90-1 sheet 1 of 2 Reger,1990,Geologic Map of the The central portion of the lineament correlates to a prominent break in slope The inconsistent expression of apparent vertical displacement along the Healy A-3 Quadrangle,Alaska.and juxtaposing bedrock and Quaternary deposits (apparent down-to-east).mapped trace and a lack of geomorphic expression indicative of strike-slip RG Y Alaska Division of Geological and 34 45 The northern extent of the lineament is expressed by a subtle west facing faulting suggest that a tectonic origin is highly unlikely.This lineament appears lla .slope and linear valley.The southern extent is mapped over the crest of a to represent a collection of unrelated features.Geophysical Surveys,Public Data we ; File 90-1 sheet 1 of 2 bedrock knob and exhibits an apparent down-to-east sense of motion.Noile90-1 sheet 1 0 expression of the lineament was observed within Quaternary deposits. INTERIM DRAFT Page 73 of 81 01/20/14 Zw ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO 46-1401 a Motpone Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. G Previous!Approximate Approximate Lineamentrouprevious'y Source of Previous Mappin Distance to Dam |Length of Grou 2013 Lineament Summary Observations 2013 Lineament Summary InterpretationsNumberMapped?pping . 9 P "y P Categoryppee:Sitet (km)(km) Reger,1990,Geologic Map of the A sinuous east-northeast trending photo-lineament mapped over quartz in aggregate this lineament is a collection of aligned and unrelated non-tectonic Healy A-3 Quadrangle,Alaska.monzonite gneiss (TKqmg),quartz monzonite (Tqm)bedrock and Wisconsin features:linear drainages,linear erosional features,and aligned solifluction R7 Y Alaska Division of Geological and 97 5 age till (Qd3)deposits.A pean vein sepa bnproken,across this lobes.lla Geophysical Surveys,Public Data eature at its intersection wi n the Feature ineament.inear expression .f ,within the Quaternary deposits was observed to be a linear drainage (westernFile90-1 sheet 1 of 2 segment)and an alignment of solufluction lobes (eastern segment) Reger,1990,Geologic Map of the Aslightly arcing west-northwest trending photo-lineament mapped over a Low altitude aerial observations revealed that the topographic scarp is Healy A-3 Quadrangle,Alaska.quartz monzonite gneiss (TKqmg)bedrock ridge and Wisconsin age till (Qd3)|approximately 10-20m in height and likely an erosional feature related toyA-3Q gle,_ Alaska Division of Geological and deposits.On the western side of the ridge,the feature intersects the northern solifluction.The scarp has a limited extent and is not expressed in any other RB y Geophysical Surveys,Public Data 99 5 extent of a mapped fault that has no expression in Quaternary deposits.Two bedrock segment or Quaternary deposit along Feature 8.lla ile 90-1 sheet 1 of 2 mapped pegmatite veins are mapped,unbroken,across this feature.ThisFile90-1 shee lineament is made prominent by a very large southwest facing topographic scarp along a linear drainage on the west side of the ridge,and a linear drainage on the eastern side of the bedrock ridge Reger,1990,Geologic Map of the A northwest trending photo-lineament that is mapped over Wisconsin age till The lineament is created by an alignment of non-tectonic glacial features:a Healy A-3 Quadrangle,Alaska.(Qd3),alluvial fan (Qaf),and moraine (Qm3)deposits.The feature is linear moraine,solifluction features,and glacial striations in bedrock and along RQ Y Alaska Division of Geological and 99 575 concider with numerous slacia related features.At one neatin near the the valley margin.lla Geophysical Surveys,Public Data center of its mapped trace,t e lineament is overprinted wit a Quaternary age,alluvial fan.No trace of the lineament was observed within the alluvial fanFile90-1 sheet1 of2 deposit. Reger,1990,Geologic Map of the The lineament is mostly composed of linear drainages,linear moraines,and The opposing sense of apparent vertical displacement along the trace of the Healy A-3 Quadrangle,Alaska.breaks in slope.The breaks in slope in the north and south display an opposite |fault and lack of geomorphic indicators for strike-slip faulting is an argument Alaska Division of Geological and sense of displacement (down to east)than the middle slope (down to west).against this feature having a tectonic origin.The mapped trace appears to R10 Y Geophysical Surveys.Public Data 26 10.5 Geomorphic features indicative of oblique or strike-slip faulting were not depict a linear alignment of unrelated non-tectonics features.lla ;pny H2 observed.Alluvial deposits within of the intersecting glacial valley (southernFile90-1 sheet 1 0 portion of the trace)and the glaciated plain (mid to northern segment of the trace)show no clear evidence of linear expression. Reger,1990,Geologic Map of the Observations made during low altitude aerial inspection showed that the This lineament represents the alignment of glacial features. Healy A-3 Quadrangle,Alaska.mapped trace of this lineament is coincident with an alignment of moraine R11 Y Alaska Division of Geological and 32 3.25 crests and linear erosion features.The lineament was not observed in any of lla Geophysical Surveys,Public Data the intersecting Quaternary deposits File 90-1 sheet 1 of 2 Reger,1990,Geologic Map of the The western and central segments of this lineament are coincident with linear This lineament represents both erosional and glacial features. Healy A-3 Quadrangle,Alaska.drainages (erosion features).In its eastern extent,the mapped trace of the R12 Y Alaska Division of Geological and 34 4.95 ineament is coincident with the linear flank of a rock glacier over an older rock lla Geophysical Surveys,Public Data glacier. File 90-1 sheet 1 of 2 Reger,1990,Geologic Map of the A north-northwest trending fault mapped in Basalt,Rhyolite,and Agglomerate |Lacking evidence of Quaternary age deformation,this feature is not considered Healy A-3 Quadrangle,Alaska.(Tvfa)bedrock and terminates at Quaternary age rock glacier (Qcg)and to be a Quaternary structure. R13 Y Alaska Division of Geological and 37 0.25 Quaternary landslide (Qct)deposits.Dike swarms (Tgr-d)are mapped across lla Geophysical Surveys,Public Data the project path of this feature,unbroken.Observations from low altitude . ,aerial inspection showed no expression of faulting within Quaternary depositsFile90-1 sheet 1 of 2 INTERIM DRAFT Page 74 of 81 01/20/14 -Z- SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA11-022 16-1401-TM-012014 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. .Approximate Approximate : Group Previously Source of Previous Mapping Distance to Dam Length of Group 2013 Lineament Summary Observations 2013 Lineament Summary Interpretations Lineament Number Mapped?Sitet (km)(km)Category Reger,1990,Geologic Map of the A north-northwest trending photo-lineament mapped in Basalt,Rhyolite,and Field observations indicate that this feature is a linear drainage and is erosional Healy A-3 Quadrangle,Alaska.Agglomerate (Tvfa)bedrock and Quaternary age landslide (Qct)and rock in origin. Alaska Division of Geological and glacier (Qcqg)deposits.This feature is along strike with,and it appears to be R14 Y Geophysical Surveys,Public Data 38 1 mapped as a possible northern extension of the Feature 13 fault.This lla ; 'lineament is formed by a linear drainage within a rock glacier in a narrow,File 90-1 sheet 1 of 2 south facing,cirque and an aligned saddle.Low altitude aerial inspection observed no evidence for faulting along this linear alignment Reger,1990,Geologic Map of the A north-northwest trending fault mapped in Basalt,Rhyolite,and Agglomerate |Lacking evidence of Quaternary age deformation,this feature is not considered Healy A-3 Quadrangle,Alaska.(Tvfa)bedrock and Quatemary placa i (Qd)"repos.Low atitude aerial to be an Quaternary structure. 'ici :inspection observed the faultin bedrock outcrops on the mountain slopes andR15YpaDivisionofGeologicaland391sthroughasaddle.No expression of the fault or fault related deformation was lla eophysical Surveys,Public Data ,roar ;; .observed in Quaternary (Qd)deposits in the valley floor or in an overlying rockFile90-1 sheet1 of2 laciglacier. Reger,1990,Geologic Map of the A northwest trending fault juxtaposing Tertiary Quartz Monzonite (Tqm)Lacking evidence of Quaternary age deformation,this feature is not considered Healy A-3 Quadrangle,Alaska.against Cretaceous Kahiltna Terraine Argellite,Sandstone,and Siltstone (KJs}|to be a Quaternary structure. Alaska Division of Geological and bedrock and over Quaternary landslide (Qet)and till (Qd)deposits.This fault is Geophysical Surveys,Public Data along strike with,and north of,the Feature 15 fault.The two features are R16 Y , 42 0.75 separated by a glacial valley.Low altitude aerial inspection observed evidence llaFile90-1 sheet 1 of 2 of faulting in bedrock at a ridgeline saddle near the center of the lineament, confirming the presence of the fault along the mapped trace.The Quaternary deposits (Qct,Qd)on the floor of the glacial valley and lower flanking slopes were observed,and no linear expression or evidence of tectonic deformation was observed. Reger,1990,Geologic Map of the A northeast trending photo-lineament mapped in Kahiltna Terraine Argellite,The mapped trace is coincident with,and most likely defining aligned and subtle Healy A-3 Quadrangle,Alaska.Sandstone,and Siltstone (KJs)bedrock and across Quaternary landslide (Qct)|slope inflections and linear drainage channels within the Quaternary deposits. R17 Y Alaska Division of Geological and 49 9.5 and unlabeled (till and/or moraine?)quaternary deposits.The mapped trace of |The field observations found no evidence to support a tectonic origin for this lla Geophysical Surveys,Public Data ,the lineament crosses the till and moraine(?)deposits;however no clear feature. ; ,through-going linear expression was observed during low altitude aerialFile90-1 sheet1 of 2 inspection. Reger,1990,Geologic Map of the A northwest trending photo-lineament mapped in Kahiltna Terraine argellite,Evidence indicates that this lineament is likely a continuation of the bedrock Healy A-3 Quadrangle,Alaska.sandstone,and siltstone (KJs)bedrock and Wisconsin age till (Qd3),and -fault trace mapped to the southeast.However,lacking evidence of Quaternary Alaska Division of Geological and unlabeled (till and moraine?)deposits.The mapped trace of the lineament is |age deformation,this feature is not considered to be an active structure. Geophysical Surveys,Public Data coincident with a topographic break-in-slope (apparent down-to-northeast)in . ,bedrock.This lineament is parallel/sub-parallel,and along strike to the R18 Y File 90-1 sheet 1 of 2 42 0.5 northwest,to a (down-to-northeast)normal fault mapped by Reger et al lla (1990).The two features are separated by a northeast trending glaciated valley.Low altitude aerial inspection observed an apparent fault exposure,in bedrock,at a topographic break-in-slope along the ridgeline.Quaternary deposits between Features 18 and 20 were inspected and found to be undeformed and lacking any linear expression. Reger,1990,Geologic Map of the A northeast tending photo-lineament mapped in unlabeled.Quaternary (till and |Observed to be an erosional feature this lineament is likely non-tectonic in origin Healy A-3 Quadrangle,Alaska.moraine?)deposits.Low altitude aerial inspection showed that the mapped and not considered further. R19 Y Alaska Division of Geological and 43 {linear trace correlates with a vegetated linear drainage.The lineament is made lla Geophysical Surveys,Public Data more prominent by the color contract between the vegetation and theFile90-1 sheet 4 of 2 surrounding rocky ground surface. INTERIM DRAFT Page 75 of 81 01/20/14 2 SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA11-022 16-1401-TM-012014 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. G Previous!Approximate Approximate LineamentN'be Mapped?=Source of Previous Mapping Distance to Dam |Length of Group 2013 Lineament Summary Observations 2013 Lineament Summary Interpretations Catumberapped?Sitet (km)(km)ategory Reger,1990,Geologic Map of the A northwest striking photo-lineament mapped across orthogneiss and Observed to be an erosional feature this lineament is not considered further. Healy A-3 Quadrangle,Alaska.migmatite (TKgm)bedrock and Quaternary age undifferentiated colluvium (Qc) R20 Y Alaska Division of Geological and 44 {deposits.Low altitude aerial inspection confirmed that the mapped linear trace lla .;correlates with a linear drainage and has expression only in bedrock.No linearGeophysicalSurveys,Public Data :;, ;expression was observed in Quaternary deposits along the projected path ofFile90-1 sheet1 of 2 the feature. Reger,1990,Geologic Map of the A northwest trending photo-lineament mapped over quartz monzonite (Tqm)This lineament represents a collection of aligned,non-tectonic features and is Healy A-3 Quadrangle,Alaska.bedrock and morainal deposits of Late Wisconsin age (Qm3).Low altitude not considered further. Alaska Division of Geological and aerial inspection showed that this lineament is composed of a collection of R21 Y Geophysical Surveys,Public Data 38 2.25 aligned feature.The northern and central segments of this feature are a lla f ,bedrock ridge crest leading to a linear drainage.The southern extent,inFile90-1 sheet 1 of 2 Quatemary deposits,was observed to be the crest of a debris flow levee which bounds the linear drainage Reger,1990,Geologic Map of the An east-northeast trending photo-lineament mapped within a deposit of It is likely that the mapped trace represents a color contrast created by glacial Healy A-3 Quadrangle,Alaska.colluviated till of Illinoian age.Low altitude aerial inspection observed no till along the crest of a low-relief ridge separating two drainages.Likely non- R22 Y Alaska Division of Geological and 45 0.75 clearly defined linear expression to correlate with the mapped lineament.tectonic in origin this feature is not considered further.ila Geophysical Surveys,Public Data File 90-1 sheet 1 of 2 Reger,1990,Geologic Map of the An east-northeast trending photo lineament mapped across paragneiss The geomorphic expression of this lineament is composed of an unlikely Healy A-3 Quadrangle,Alaska.(TKpgn}bedrock and morainal deposits of late Wisconsin age (Qm3),and till combination of features to support a through-going tectonic structure with Alaska Division of Geological and of Illinoian age (Qd2.Low altitude aerial inspection observed that the mapped |vertical displacement,and it lacks geomorphic expression to support strike-slip ..trace of the lineament correlates with topographic scarps and linear solifluction |faulting.Geophysical Surveys,Public Data .R23 Y File 90-1 sheet 1 of 2 46 3.75 features.Along strike,the topographic scarps were observed to express an This lineament appears to be a collection of coincidentally aligned linear lla opposing sense of vertical displacement (down-to-northwest and down-to-features and caused by solifluction and erosion.southeast).Geomorphic expression indicative of strike-slip or oblique faulting was not observed.No linear expression or scarps were observed within the intersecting Quaternary deposits. Reger,1990,Geologic Map of the A northwest trending photo-lineament mapped in paragneiss (TKpng)bedrock |This lineament represents a collection of aligned non-tectonic features.The Healy A-3 Quadrangle,Alaska.for most of its length except for the northern extent where it is mapped within linear swales appear to be glacial in origin,and other segments of this Alaska Division of Geological and Quaternary age talus (Qct)deposits in an east-facing cirque.Low altitude lineament are formed by a linear drainage (erosional feature). ..aerial inspection of the lineament revealed that in bedrock the mapped traceR24YGeophysicalSurveys,Public Data 44 4 consists of an alignment of variably-scaled,linear swales.In the Quaternary lla File 90-1 sheet 1 of 2 deposits the lineament corresponds to a linear drainage.Scarps and vertical displacement were not observed in the cirque floor described by Reger et al. (1990)and no evidence of tectonic origin was noted for this feature. Reger,1990,Geologic Map of the An angled northwest trending photo-lineament.The lineament is mapped over |Being an erosional feature,these field observations indicate that this feature is Healy A-3 Quadrangle,Alaska.paragneiss (TKpgn)bedrock and late Wisconsin age till (Qd3).Low altitude likely non-tectonic in origin. R25 Y Alaska Division of Geological and 43 1.25 aerial inspection revealed that the mapped trace is coincident with a shallow ila Geophysical Surveys,Public Data linear drainage that is highlighted by an apparent vegetation color contrast. File 90-1 sheet 1 of 2 INTERIM DRAFT Page 76 of 81 01/20/14 a SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA11-022 16-1401-TM-012014 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. Previous!Approximate Approximate LineamentGroupMapped?-Source of Previous Mapping Distance to Dam |Length of Group 2013 Lineament Summary Observations 2013 Lineament Summary Interpretations CateaoNumberapped?Sitet (km)(km)gory Reger,1990,Geologic Map of the An east-to-west trending photo lineament mapped over bedrock for its entire Within the cirque the only along-strike linear trend is attributed to a linear Healy A-3 Quadrangle,Alaska.trace except for the far western end.At this location it is mapped over a drainage incised into bedrock.The mapped trace appears to represent an R26 Y Alaska Division of Geological and 4 3.95 Quaternary age talus deposits before it is terminated against a bedrock knob erosional feature and is not considered further.lla Geophysical Surveys.Public Data in the center of the cirque.Visual inspection of the lineament revealed no clearFi50heet1ot>linear trace through the talus deposits.ile 90-1 shee Reger,1990,Geologic Map of the An east-to-west trending photo-lineament mapped over paragneiss (TKpgn)The only linear expression observed in the vicinity of the mapped trace was a Healy A-3 Quadrangle,Alaska.bedrock in its middle portion and Quaternary talus (Qct)deposits on its eastern |linear drainage (erosional feature)and non-tectonic in origin.This feature is not laska Division of Geological and 40 2 and western extents.Within bedrock,no continuous linear features were considered further.llaR27YahsicalSurveysieDataobservedthatcorrespondwiththemappedtraceofFeature27.Within Qct,thewile00-1 heet 1 sty only observed linear expressions were related to linear drainages.ile 90-1 she Reger,1990,Geologic Map of the A north-northwest trending photo-lineament mapped over orthogneiss and Lacking evidence of Quaternary deformation,this feature is not considered to Healy A-3 Quadrangle,Alaska.migmatite (TKgm)bedrock and Quaternary age colluviated till (Qdc3).During be an active structure. Alaska Division of Geological and low altitude aerial inspection the feature was observed to be characterized by R28 Y Geophysical Surveys,Public Data 39 2.5 a shallow liner trough oriented at an obliqulique angle to linear solufluction llaepy8,features and moraines,possibly indicating that this feature is related toFile90-1 sheet 1 of 2 bedrock structure.However,it has no expression in overlying Quaternary deposits or within adjacent Quaternary till deposit to the southeast. Notes:"Y =yes,N =no. {Distance value represents the approximate distance to the portion of the lineament group nearest to the dam. INTERIM DRAFT Page 77 of 81 01/20/14 Zz ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 16-1401-TM-012014 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. 6.REFERENCES Acres,(1981),Susitna Hydroelectric Project,1980-1981 Geotechnical Report,Volume 1,unpublished consultant's report prepared by Acres for Alaska Power Authority,288 p. Acres,(1982),Susitna Hydroelectric Project,1982 Supplement to the 1980-1981 Geotechnical Report, Volume 2,unpublished consultant's report prepared by Acres for Alaska Power Authority,dated December 1982,236 p.and 250 pp of Appendices. Bruen,M.,(1981),Personal Communication,Project Geologist for the Susitna Hydroelectric Project, Acres American,Inc.,Anchorage,Alaska,in Woodward-Clyde Consultants (WCC),(1982), Subtasks 4.09 through 4.15,Final Report on Seismic Studies for Susitna Hydroelectric Project. Clautice,K.H.,(1990),Geologic map of the Valdez Creek mining district:Alaska Division of Geological &Geophysical Surveys Public Data File 90-30,|sheet,scale 1:250,000. Clautice,K.,Newberry,R.,Pinney,D.,Gage,B.,Harris,E.,Liss,S.,Miller,M.,Reifunstuhl,R., Clough,J.,(2001),Geologic map of the Chulitna Region,Southcentral Alaska;scale 1:63,360, Alaska Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys Report ofInvestigations 2001-1b. Csejtey,B.,(1974),Geologic map of a part of the Talkeetna Mountains (A-5,C-4)quadrangle, Talkeetna Mountains,Alaska;United States Geological Survey Open File Map 74-147. Csejtey,B.,Nelson,W.,Jones,D.,Silberling,N.,Dean,R.,Morris,M.,Lanphere,M.,Smith,J.,and Silberman,M.,(1978),Reconnaissance geologic map and geochronology,Talkeetna Mountains quadrangle,northern part of Anchorage quadrangle,and southwest corner of Healy Quadrangle, Alaska;U.S.Geological Survey Open File Report 78-558-A,62 p.,1 plate. Csejtey,B.,Mullen,M.W.,Cox,D.P.,and Stricker,G.D.,(1992),Geology and geochronology of the Healy quadrangle,south-central Alaska:U.S.Geological Survey Miscellaneous Investigations Series Map I-1961,63 p.,2 plates,scales 1:250,000,1:360,000. Dixon,E.J.,Smith,G.S,,King,M.L.,and Romick,J.D.,(1983),Final Report 1982 field season,Sub- task 7.06:Cultural Resources Survey for the Susitna Hydroelectric project.University of Alaska Museum,361 p. Dixon,E.J.,Smith,G.S.,Andrefsky,W.,Saleeby,B.M.,and Utermohle,C.J.(1985),Cultural Resources Investigation for the Susitna Hydroelectric project 1979 -1985,Volume 1,Chapters 1-10,Appendix A.University of Alaska Museum,587 p. INTERIM DRAFT Page 78 of 81 01/20/14 ---Z-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY ;AEA11-022SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO 46-1401-TM-012014 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. Dortch,J.M.,Owen,L.A.,Caffee,M.W.,Brease,P.,2010a.Late Quaternary glaciation and equilibrium line altitude variations of the McKinley River region,central Alaska Range.Boreas 39,233- 246. Dortch,J.,Owen,L.,Caffee,M.,Li,D.,Lowell,T.,2010b.Beryllium-10 surface exposure dating of glacial successions in the central Alaska Range.J.Quatern.Sci.25,1259-1269. Fugro Consultants,Inc.,(FCL),(2012),Seismic Hazard Characterization and Ground Motion Analyses for the Susitna-Watana Dam Site Area,unpublished consultant's report prepared for Alaska Energy Authority as NTP 6 Seismic Studies Technical Memorandum No.4,Dated February 24, 2012,146 pages and 4 Appendices. Fugro Consultants,Inc.,(FCL),(2013),Lineament Mapping and Analysis for the Susitna-Watana Dam Site,unpublished consultant's report prepared for Alaska Energy Authority as NTP 11, Technical Memorandum No.8,Dated March 27,2013,61 pages plus figures,plates,and 1 appendix. Gao,C.,(2011),Buried bedrock valleys and glacial and subglacial meltwater erosion in southern Ontario,Canada.Canadian Journal of Earth Science,v.48,p801-818;doi:10.1139/E10-104 Grantz,A.,(1960),Geologic map of Talkeetna Mountains (A-2)quadrangle,Alaska and the contiguous area to the north and northwest;scale 1:48,000.United States Geological Survey Miscellaneous Geologic Investigations Map I-313. Gray,H.H.,(2001),Subglacial meltwater channels (Nye channels or N-channels)in sandstone at Hindostan Falls,Martin County,Indiana;Proceedings of the Indiana Academy of Science,v. 110,pages 1-8. Hamilton,T.D.,(1994),Late Cenozoic Glaciation of Alaska,in Plafker,G.,and Berg,H.C.,eds.,The Geology of North America,Vol.G-1,Chapter 27:The Geology of Alaska,pp.813-844.The Geological Society of America,Boulder,Colorado. Jorgensen,F,and Sandersen,P.B.E.,(2006),Buried and open tunnel valleys in Denmark-erosion beneath multiple ice sheets,Quaternary Science Reviews 25 (11-12):1339-136. doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2005.11.006. Kaufman,D.,Young,N.,Briner,J.,Manley,W.,(2011),Alaska Palaeo-Glacier Atlas (Version 2);in Ehlers,J.,P.L.Gibbard,and P.D.Hughes (eds),Quaternary Glaciations -Extent and Chronology -A Closer Look.Developments in Quaternary Science,Vol.15,pp.427-445. Elsevier,Amsterdam.ISBN:978-0-444-53447-7 INTERIM DRAFT Page 79 of 81 01/20/14 -Z-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 16-1401-TM-012014 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. Kline,J.T.,Bundtzen,T.K.,and Smith,T.E.,1990,Preliminary bedrock geologic map ofthe Talkeetna Mountains D-2 Quadrangle,Alaska:Alaska Division of Geological &Geophysical Surveys Public Data File 90-24,13 p.,1 sheet,scale 1:63,360. Koehler,R.D.,Farrell,R.,Burns,P.,and Combellick,R.A.,(2012),Quaternary faults and folds in Alaska:A digital database,31 p.,1 sheet,scale 1:3,700,000 Nokleberg,W.J.,Plafker,George,and Wilson,F.H.,(1994),Geology of south-central Alaska,in Plafker,George,and Berg,H.C.,eds.,The geology of Alaska,v.G-1 of The geology of North America:Boulder,Colo.,Geological Society of America,p.311-366. O'Neill,J.M.,Ridgway,K.D.,and Eastham,K.R.(2001).Mesozoic Sedimentation and Deformation Along the Talkeetna Thrust Fault,South-Central Alaska-New Insights and Their Regional Tectonic Significance.Studies by the US Geological Survey in Alaska,U.S.Geological Survey Professional Paper 1678,pp.83-92. Potter,B.A.,(2008),Radiocarbon chronology of Central Alaska:Technological continuity and economic change;Radiocarbon,v.50,no.2,p181-204 Reger,R.,Bundtzen,T.,and Smith,T.,(1990),Geologic map of the Healy A-3 quadrangle,Alaska; scale 1:63,360;Alaska Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys Public data file 90-1. Reger,R.D.,and Pinney,D.S.,(1997),Last major glaciation of Kenai Lowland,in Karl,S.M.,Vaughn, N.R.,and Ryherd,T.J.,eds.,1997 guide to the geology of the Kenai Peninsula,Alaska: Anchorage,Alaska Geological Society,p.54-67. Reger,R.D.,(2013)"Talkeetna/Healy faulting and mapping,”Written communication to Dean Ostenaa, 15 August 2013,Email. Riehle,J.R.,Bowers,P.M.,and Ager,T.A.,(1990),The Hayes tephra deposits,and upper Holocene marker horizon in south-central Alaska;Quaternary Research 33,pp.276-290. Ritter,D.F.,Kochel,R.C.,Miller,J.R.,(1995),Process Geomorphology,third ed.,Dubuque,Iowa,Wm. C.Brown Publishers,546 p. Sherrod,B.,Brocher,T.,Weaver,C.,Bucknam,R.,Blakely,R.,Kelsey,H.,Nelson,ALR.,and Haugerud,R.,(2004),Holocene fault scarps near Tacoma,Washington,USA:Geology,v.32, p.9-12,doi:10.1130/G19914.1. INTERIM DRAFT Page 80 of 81 01/20/14 Zz ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY _AEA11-022SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO 46-1401-TM-012014 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. Silberling,N.J.,Richter,D.H.,Jones,D.L.,and Coney,P.J.,(1981),Geologic map of the bedrock part of the Healy A-1 quadrangle south of the Talkeetna-Broxson Gulch fault system,Clearwater Mountains,Alaska:U.S.Geological Survey Open-File Report 81-1288,scale 1:63,360. Smith,T.E.,(1981),Geology of the Clearwater Mountains,south-central Alaska:Alaska Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys Geologic Report 60,69 p.,scale 1:36,360. Smith,T.,Albanese,M.,Kline,G.,(1988),Geologic map of the Healy A-2 quadrangle,Alaska Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys Professional Report 95.Scale 1:63,360 Wahrhaftig,C.,(1965),Physiographic Divisions of Alaska:A classification and brief description with a discussion of high-latitude physiographic processes.U.S.Geological Survey Professional Paper 482. Williams,J.R.,Galloway,J.P.,(1986).Map of western Copper River basin,Alaska,showing lake sediments and shorelines,glacial moraines,and location of stratigraphic sections and radiocarbon-dated samples.U.S.Geological Survey Open File Report 86-390,30 p.,1 sheet, scale 1:250,000. Wilson,F.H.,Dover,J.H.,Bradley,D.C.,Weber,F.R.,Bundtzen,T.K.,and Haeussler,P.J.,(1998), Geologic map of central (interior)Alaska:U.S.Geological Survey Open-File Report 98-0133-B, 63 p.,3 sheets. Wilson,F.H.,Hults,C.P.,Schmoll,H.R.,Haeussler,P.J.,Schmidt,J.M.,Yehle,L.A.and Labay K.A., (2009),Preliminary Geologic Map of the Cook Inlet Region,Alaska U.S.Geological Survey Open-File Report 2009-1108,54 p.,2 sheets. Woodward-Clyde Consultants (WCC),(1980),Interim Report on Seismic Studies for Susitna Hydroelectric Project.Prepared for Acres American Inc. Woodward-Clyde Consultants (WCC),(1982),Subtasks 4.09 through 4.15,Final Report on Seismic Studies for Susitna Hydroelectric Project. INTERIM DRAFT Page 81 of 81 01/20/14 -Z-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY ;AEA11-022SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO 46-1404-TM-012014 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. Figures 146°0'W148°0'W150°0'W Explanation line where inferred (Alaska Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys, 2012) a'Field work planonresultsofT constrained,long dashed line where moderately constrained,short dashed -----Quaternary fault,solid where well =DE Tee adet aePFE et = ! sed ) a No field work planned in 2013 based din 2013 ba 8 (FCL,2013 ned i M- on results of TM-8 (FCL,2013)}0 Proposed Watana site* ce mace ; ; oon ne (a - . =tleMt Zextension} < 3 ae >- te,heaeneare DRAFT FIGURE 1-1 SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT LOCATION MAP(=A STATE OF ALASKA ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYfesrs pate 12/02/13 Eb ZO'Zl payipow 'g10z seqowg Loday jwaweauly Bate "eysely 00681762 79_218900_Alaska'2189_LineamentReportDecember2013,modified12.04.13a '° i ".edWG sgl faret™ 149°30'0"W 149°0'0"W 148°30'0"W 148°0'0"W 147°30'0"W 63°0'0"Nbaailawae62°30'0"NMetin. wr we «Fe '=e a dalics4 ys,*bd -.. Fag ge a: Geology from Wilson et al.,1998 (USGS Open-file Report 98-133 Healy and Talkeetna Mountains 250,000 quadrangles) See Figure 1-2B for map legend DRAFT Tere Date 1 2/04/1 3 STATE OF ALASKA ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY /=ALASKA@@-ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT SITE REGION GEOLOGY FROM TM-8 FIGURE 1-2A 79_218900_Alaska'2189_LineamentReportDecember2013,modified12.04.13"g -Ice fields or glaciers QUATERNARY DESPOSITS |Qs |Surfical deposits,undifferentiated TERTIARY ROCKS Sedimentary Rocks "Tn |Nenana Gravel _Teb |Coal-bearing rocks ,+ge .|Tfv |Fluviatile sedimentary rocks and subordinate volcanic rocks Igneous Rocks Volcanic and Hypabyssal Rocks Tvu |Tertiary volcanic rocks,undivided _nf]Hypabyssal felsic and intermediate intrusions Hypabyssal mafic intrusions Intrusive Rocks livj Granite and volcanic rocks,undivided EOCENE "Tear |Granite and granodiorite PALEOCENE Granitic rocks TERTIARY AND/OR CRETACEOUS Igneous Rocks Intrusive Rocks "TKg]}Granitic rocks TKgd;Granodiorite,tonalite and monzonite dikes,and stocks Metamorphic Rocks UNDIVIDED MESOZOIC ROCKS METAMORPHIC ROCKS "Mzsa!Schist and amphibolite Mazpca'Phyllite,pelitic schist,calc-schist,and amphibolite of the McClaren metamorphic belt Geology from Wilson et al.,1998 (USGS Open-file Report 98-133) CRETACEOUS Melange Kmar,Melanges of the Alaska Range 'Trt |Limestone blocks Igneous Rocks Volcanic and hypabyssal rocks 'Ksva_Andesite subvolcanic rocks Intrusive Rocks "Kgu]Granitic rocks k eg Granitic rocks younger than 85 Ma Kmmunj Ultramafic rocks CRETACEOUS AND/OR JURASSIC Sedimentary Rocks Kds }Argillite,chert,sandstone,and limestone _KJf |Kahiltna flysch sequence KJeg|Conglomerate,sandstone,siltstone,shale, and volcanic rocks JURASSIC Igneous Rocks -Jmu|Mafic and ultramafic rocks isgd]Alaska-Aleutian Range and Chitina Valleybatholiths,undifferentiated Metamorphic Rocks JPaur,Uranatina metaplutonic complex Sedimentary Rocks Trl Limestone and marble |Jtk |Talkeetna Formation TRIASSIC Sedimentary Rocks "Tres |Calcareous sedimentary rocks |Trk |Kamishak limestone Plutonic Rocks iJfgbj Gabbro,diabase,and metagabbro Volcanic Rocks Nikolai Greenstone and related similar rocks Metamorphic Rocks Metavolcanics and associated metasedimentary rocks MESOZOIC AND PALEOZOIC Assemblages and Sequences 'JTrsu|Red and brown sedimentary rocks and basalt "STrct]Crystal tuff,argillite,chert,graywacke, and limestone |Trr |Red beds 'TrDv|Volcanic and sedimentary rocks Serpentinite,basalt,chert and gabbro PALEOZOIC Assemblages and Sequences (Skolai Group) "Pzv|Station Creek and Slana Spur Fm.,and equivalent rocks _Pat|Teteina Volcanics Jpmu/Jpam __PPast_|Streina metamorphic complex JPzmb Marble Stratigraphic contact Shoreline or riverbank Ice contact (glacier limit) ---Lineament -Fault -certain ---Fault -approximate ----Fault -inferred sasses Fault -concealed - -«A Thrust fault -certain «A.Thrust fault -approximate --4-Thrust fault -inferred --4...4 Thrust fault -concealed DRAFT STATE OF ALASKA SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT FIGURETorALASKAENERGYAUTHORITYSITEREGION. -{=ALASKA GEOLOGY LEGEND 1-28 pate__12/04/13 @@-_>ENERGY AUTHORITY portOctober2013,modified12.02.13/2189_LineamentRe79_218900_Alaskz150°0'W T reve -oa a Fes 4 | ced©pn pdae,was tae |wegome<2 FPS astle MtnZextension Explanation Lineament Groups No field work planned in 2013 based on results of TM-8 (FCL,2013) Field work planned in 2013 based on results of TM-8 (FCL,2013) Land Ownership :Denali National Park Denali State Park Not identified |ANCSA Corporation land Alaska Mental Health Land Trust Alaska Railroad Corporation landzenmatsPaxson@-|©Federal land Municipal land Native allotment |Private land State land SS .'State land -navigable waterway [-..|University land Q Bureau of Land Management . . Fish and Wildlife Service C]Forest Service National Park Service 1 >7 °Glennalien"« a =a 2.2 res a Date 12.02.13 =ALASKA @@_>ENERGY AUTHORITY AND LINEAMENT GROUPS STATE OF ALASKA SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT FIGUREALASKAENERGYAUTHORITYLANDOWNERSHIP13 portOctober2013,modified12.02.13..-._-.-2189_LineamentRe;79_218900_Alaska450000 550000 600000 pene =x] Pe Explanation on 428 "a es Nie ------+Quaternary fault,solid where wellronwinewHuerpeeconstrained,long dash where ran vee 8 HE BS é moderately constrained,shortoddashwhereinferred(Koehler et al., are 2012) '4.*Proposed Watana site at ow "AY 4 317eg wae «18 GPS Tracks Pa ae een.(by reconnaissance date) a - ; ld CET a,of et ee --re etre 'a -7/11/2013 ---7/19/2013 Pi irl|r a fl Pond bag BAS mer tl nt peg Re RS i ---7/12/2013 7/21/2013 at et CPt |ade Pa ae Sb ee 7/13/2013 7/22/2013 --ay my ---7/14/2013 --7/23/2013leet.eary ae ye --7/15/2013.=--_7/24/2013aoepoevpTreehy07/16/2013 -9/4/2013 =.gh rae , °--7/17/2013 a--9/5/2013=pen |e tS |and Ree ,Bled ead a --7/18/2013"ARS .;AY a re oe f eetwahfeSFP™*ewe be eltjeea ee g 8 a i : :&o g ° "ee -'Bast S)By .SS a : Fi ' L.. ;:a "gee 3 i ee 48 o 0 10 mi j =.LENG EL G2 ,x -Ef,72 Castle Mountain fault020km/I ee ew TT Poa:Po.+i ee "Var me |hy ae or a ,: S : Coordinates on NAD83 UTM 6 North. Elevation from INSAR data and USGS SRTM data. DRAFT STATE OF ALASKA SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT FIGUREfesreALASKAENERGYAUTHORITY <«c_2013 GPS TRACKS -/=ALASKA 2 pate_12/02/13_@@-->ENERGY AUTHORITY 410000 425000 7020000SE eT Oe og ,7yee 420000 70200007020000*Po 189LineamentReportOctober2013,modified01.06.142| Pew We diated tte oeaidenFREESSEI I FETE TNoo - : oe cep tenn iattlin 7 6 7 8 Fa So et rza 7020000410000 79_218900_AlaskaNotes:1.See Figures A0.2,A0.3,A0.4,and A0.5 for explanation. 415000 420000 2.Geology by Wilson et al.,1998 STATE OF ALASKA ITNA.WATANA HYDROELEGTRIC PRfesreALASKAENERGYAUTHORITYeeEXAMPLEOF FIGURE {=ALASKA LINEAMENT GROUP 2-2 oate_O1/06/14 _=ENERGY AUTHORITY MAP DATA 79218900_Alaska_2189LineamentReportOctober2013,modified01.06.14A) Location of Location of Photograph C Photograph B View looking northeast from location A towards the confluence of the Jack River and the East Fork Jack River.Arrows point along the alignment of mapped lineaments. Note absence of linear expression in Quaternary deposits. B) Location of Photograph C Location of Photograph A C) View looking southwest from location C at a detailed view of aligned uphill-facing scarps.Note Thf contact is up-slope from the scarp in the distance. DRAFT View looking southwest from location B along alignment of linear features.Arrows indicate the alignment of the mapped lineaments.fusro ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY ee NXAMPLEOF FIGURE Lica {=ALASKA LINEAMENT GROUP 2-3 pate 01/06/14 @&->ENERGY AUTHORITY PHOTOGRAPHS 189LineamentRe|79_218900_AlaskaportOctober2013,modified01.06.14Attributes of lineaments mapped by FCL (2013)that apply to all figures and plates in Appendix A Reconnaissance (INSAR)Detail (LIDAR) .-.-.-10 @eeeee 77 -_--388 Lineament Groups 1-5 Lineament group mapped for this study coinciding with previously mapped fault or lineament No previously mapped fault or lineament coincides with lineament group Explanation for relevant geologic units of Williams and Galloway (1986)shown on Figure A20.5 and A23.1 2090290go° Attribute Cross Section Morphology*Description Examples SN Linear break-in-slope bisecting a planar surface Uphill-or downhill-facing scarps, ateral moraines or kame deposits along lateral margins of valley glaciers *FahetgERFE)Abrupt changes in slope adjacent Linear range fronts,faceted ridges,level while st ti till i lley bott .:2 )Y)|sea level while stagnant ice was still in valley bottom.to otherwise relatively horizontal |terrace risers,steep downstream Tazlina Lake from elevation 564 m down to present lakelevel544mcausedbyloweringoflakeasTazlinaRiver(and planar)surfaces faces of rouche mountonees :+has deepened its canyon. *:Bottom deposits of last regional lake ;Delta of glacial lake,including those of modern glacial ;;; i Overprint denoting drape of bottom deposits over lakes such as Tazlina Lake.NYS Linear U-shaped trough atin valleys.se Scoured flutes,drift and thick lake sediments that persisted in 3 ood-scoured flutes,...:Copper River drainage basin from Just before Linear or drumlinoid feature,due to ice scour,direction ofdepositionofOldManmorainestoatimewhenicemovementindicatedbyarrow.en ee glaciers had retreated to within 16 to 24 km of present glaciers:older than 13,000 years. 4 v Linear V-shaped trough Active stream channels ;;;;peyiniy Spillway for glacial meltwater,including that stored inVbevenelargeglaciallakes. -|7 Linear ridaes Drumlins,water-scoured terrain,Contact between map units where not glacial boundary,g eskers most commonly between different levels of lake deposits. ;; D 6 n/a A series of aligned features Could include attributes #1 -5 Loy h Active (?)fault,lower Sonona Creek,offsetting (also 77)above and/or aligned saddles,tonal U unconsolidated deposits. lineaments,etc. 66 nla Data artifacts Linear seams between data sets collected on different dates 88 n/a A series of aligned features,Could include features with 4 Location of selected erratic boulders,mountain topwhicharetoosmalltoindividually|attributes #1-5 above and/or erratic stones transported by glaciers,e.g.Sheep map at the given scale |aligned saddles,tonal lineaments,Mountain;many occurrences on mountains lower than etc.1829 m not shown. 99 n/a A line which encloses a broad An area of jointing or of glacialexpanseoffeaturesallhavingthe|striae all having the same,parallel same orientation orientation DRAFT 10 n/a Anthropogenic lineaments Roads,rail roads,power lines and o STATE OF ALASKA SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT FIGURE other linear clearings,etc.fore ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY EXAMPLE OF :=<K A\2-4 Notes:*Arrow points to location of the mapped feature.nae 01/06/14 /=ALASKA STRIP MAPS EXPLANATION Geologic Units Bottom deposits of 914 -975 m lake Overprint denoting glacial drift that is mantled by bottom sediments of glacial lake that extended to 914 -975 m abovemodern sea level,largely confined to middle Susitna valley,above ice dam below Fog Lake (off map)and apparently bounded on east and south side by glacier ice.Does not cover late(st)Wisconsin (last major)morainal systems.No shoreline features are mapped. Bottom deposits intermediate (777 -747)lake Overprint denoting bottom deposits of a local lake that covered melting glacier ice between Tyone Lake and Lake Louise,apparently behind Tyone Spillway,and drained as the elevation of the spillway was cut down from 777 m to 747 m above LA AA Symbols Location and letter designation of radiocarbon-dated stratigraphic section in accompanying text. Ice boundary,morainal ridge,kame terrace,delta,or other ice contact feature marking edge of glacier:hachures toward glacier. Shoreline of regional lake:mapped for the lake in Copper River basin where at 747 m (maximum elevation);the elevation to which Tyone Spillway was eroded,and successively lower levels in the northern part of area between 747 m and 701 m above sea level.Lesser recessional shorelines mapped by Nichols and Yehle (1969)not shown. Upper limit of post-glacial (Holocene,in part)shoreline of 79_218900Alaska_Ru.__.._.39_LineamentReportOctober2013,modoified01.06.14150°O'W 149°0'W 146°0'W148°0'W iO tas"TZ ..Andefson=res areasrlee:and7BigiBelta Zz 4 oO s "oO a care .Fort Greelyty -INSAR data extent 7”.nothin tL] oA rl,2 ne 'woe ' : . 7 :Ar = /eee : PD tte,pomenel!a73igMckinleyPark7we ptf te ts ee.cond 're ,. " *Leo Cantwell”.”.-Ne ee on wa de Pty,Lake aan )Chas@ @ Louise J:ae .. o-ty at Soe @ : |Petersville\\\\=Talkeetna 9 "4 «17 1 "Meee OF ss _ le a Met ag ee a Ra Tolsona:',ath Ce d a :asfaPeeaEe"3 antl VzTrappS0hepCyneooar,*"74 © Creek aaa a & bo Ne : LL 2 gts as Ad,d " .4 ts o a Eg ° ufws.*rane p1aeees Base data from ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model (AST Explanation Extent of Extent of LIDAR Data Note:Extent of Landsat imagery and INSAR data Area A ASTER GDEM elevation data ; Area B are greater than the area shown ,20 mi in figure.j T 7AreaC040 km Area D DRAFT STATE OF ALASKA SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT FIGUREfurALASKAENERGYAUTHORITY:«c_- ud /ALASKA EXTENT OF GEOSPATIAL DATA 2-5 pate 01/06/14 @@--ENERGY AUTHORITY portOctober2013,modified10.18.1379_218900AlaskaRailbelt/2189_LineamentReFrom Gray,2001. Note linearity of channels,lack of contributing watershed area,and steep sidewalls. -Sudisce enna .i,.Oe:oe panne +Lone namesaen ana eecamnesire ot ttm-re Boma Rae - @.=.4 Z on e poe ee Ps ws Lhd '.. oO ;Cs hos Ls tens ate >.aa:t enn ee aoe:>pee tnt i Soe caielamaalll =<- From http:/Awww.landforms.ca/cairngarms/meltwater%20channels.htm,last accessed 1 October,2013. These sub-ice channels are cut through interfluves,seen as notches on the skyline. eR STATE OF ALASKA SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT FIGUREfearsALASKAENERGYAUTHORITYSUB-ICE CHANNELS CUT THROUGH a =ALASKA INTERFLUVES,SCOTLAND AND 3-1 vate 10/18/13 @->ENERGY AUTHORITY EXAMPLE SUB-ICE CHANNEL MORPHOLOGY 79218900Alaska_Railbelt/2189_LineamentReportOctober2013,modified10.18.13Sub-ice channels at Grévelsjén. DRAFT Date GRO thoes 4me.aHyq eee) 10/18/13 ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY / STATE OF ALASKA =ALASKA@&-_ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT EXAMPLE SUB-ICE CHANNELS,GREENLAND FIGURE 3-2 portOctober2013,modified10.18.13Seneca Lake oF, White arrows denote locations of linear to sub-linear incised creeks that enter at high angles to Seneca Valley and Lake. DRAFT 79218900AlaskaRailbelt/2189LineamentReSTATE OF ALASKA SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT FIGUREGroALASKAENERGYAUTHORITY =-A B-ICE CH R ;{=LASKA SUB-ICE CHANNELS,FINGER LAKES,NEW YORK 3-3 @@-ENERGY AUTHORITYfees-10/18/13Date 12189LineamentReportOctober2013,modified12.02.1379_218900_Alaska150°0'W i 2g OE ot Base data from ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model (ASTER GDEM is a product of METI and NASA) 146°0'W 63°0'N62°0'NExplanation Alaska Paleo-Glacier Atlas v.2 Data (Kaufman et al.,2011) Limit of late Wisconsin glaciers Cosmogenic Exposure Sample Locations e Dortch et al.,2010a (o)Dortch et al.,2010b ()Matmon et al.,2006 Glacial Lake Elevation Extents (meters) 800 m 975 m -------Quaternary fault,solid where well constrained,long dashed line where moderately constrained,short dashed line where inferred (Alaska Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys, 2012) Date DRAFT cro ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT FIGUREputedLATEWISCONSINGLACIALLIMITS i /==>ALASKA AND AGE CONTROL 3-4 12/02/13 @&--ENERGY AUTHORITY port,modified12.02.132189_LineamentRe79_218900_Alaska_69540006954000410000 412000 414000 416000 ae * wy . ;mapsiar wae ' in et gh on (NRSEOT ay err, " 2nah T 6954000INSAR 2010 (m) 1271 669 *'or 2 a,4 ,a gat *fe_Location'of WCC T31.*oo wa -wp! ' 410000 Slope map from 5-meter INSAR data,2010 Talkeetna fault traces in top panel: A Csejtey et al.,1978 B WCC report,1982 C Wilson et al.,2009 414000 6954000416000 Tere pate__12/02/13 STATE OF ALASKA ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY =>ALASKA@&--ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT WCC TRENCH T-1 LOCATION MAP FIGURE 4-1 portOctober2013,modified1025132189_LineamentRe,79_218900_Alaskafare th ws. View of WCC T-1 location (marked by tree line),looking slightly east of south. C) View of WCC T-1 looking southwest.Note how the expression of the scarp feature dies out along the projected trend of the feature. Very low altitude view of tree line t feature in mid-background. oatwar ase eeeS:eg hat corresponds to backfilled Trench T-1,with scarp-like D)arttier»Yh3!vedJ View of WCC T-1 looking northeast. ine |(E=ALASKA@&->ENERGY AUTHORITY TRENCH T-1 SITE DRAFT cro STATE OF ALASKA SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT FIGURETtALASKAENERGYAUTHORITYPHOTOGRAPHSOFWCC1 Emlalkeetna Y osclite ..=oA 2 Moyeee Ne were ercanditecadsaaNeripa,eeeaed View looking north-northeast along trend of mapped Talkeetna fault trace with unfaulted volcanic intrusives (Tvu)in the background. 371000365000368000371000374000365000368000aay7ae,'if (eRe cet so \Ne oy on po aS oeyr a | 'Talkeetna fault coe ; -location Mae og " -(Csejtey,1978)-et ; .aa ned .KJs .: 8 Tgd &ty Ce ee 3 &oe «?tied wa.:PN .in re © poe ot NL coeSonnpaxejSTedoeponoeina00raeFaeAteraTeagee”fe Se a EE:8 NS Q es Oe Bn a oe=™Qat 4),See ine&4 SAMS os omen *Ye. a S Tal '2 .é tty io ar wen Ag g : 1 *ee37'3 -g Ikeetrg |wep8Teny.ve aN Tune ihe River ( 5 wigt 4 5 J oa Loox8.eS y)ee ores4->./ :a1ceead4)3 ey or ;-O02""r].,r 2 ey st!sal i mae row 4 2 on Being v in an ve7 ; ie aa Ln 4 aoe '.a ."£0 a.é AAG ae ae Nl "Geology from Wilson et al.,2009 Hillshade from 5-m InSAR data,2010. DRAET #pS Notes:1.See Figures A0.2,A0.3,A0.4,and A0.5 for explanation.-funre ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYOROELECTRIC PROJECT FIGURE fon) 5 ;<_MAPS AND PHOTOGRAPHS 4-3asonen3/«>ALASKA OF WCC TRENCH T-2 AREAegDate@&-ENERGY AUTHORITY Zz ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY .AEA11-022SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO 46-1401-TM-012014 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. Appendix A: Strip Maps and Photographic Documentation of Lineament Data Presented in FCL (2013) 2189LineamentReportOctober2013,modified12.16.1379_218900_Alaska,150°0'W 148°0'W 146°0'W --.-a -ara see AT ge ee StriaLSaintp.m "Ss 7 ."*<<a y ad a TE EE ACU xs pai,ee at Spseite.CF a eae ."7PeatA 'eee.et, wetsati” .Woe Pte f.re5taeManey,'.i;Faa - Explanation Quaternary fault,solid where well constrained,long dash where moderately constrained,short dash where inferred (Koehler et al.,2012) Extent of stripmap tile;figure number indicated Field work planned in 2013 based on results of TM-8 (FCL,2013) No field work planned in 2013 based on results of TM-8 (FCL,2013) Proposed Watana site Lineament Groups and Corresponding Figures Lineament Group Appendix A Figure Number 1 A1.1,A1.2 2 A2.1,A2.2 3a A3a.1,A3a.2 3b A3b.1,A3b.2 z 4 None,see TM-8 (FCL,2013) 9 5 A5-1.1,A5-2.1,A5-2.2 fie 6 A6.1,A6.2,A6.3,A6.4p04j7A7.1,A7.2;A 8 A8-1.1,A8-2.1,A8-2.2,A8-2.329AQ-1.1,A9-2.1,A9-2.2,A9-2.3,{°=A9-2.4vow10None,see TM-8 (FCL,2013)Oe,1 None,see TM-8 (FCL,2013) 12a A12a.1,12a.2«12b A12b.1,12b.2 13 None,see TM-8 (FCL,2013) 14 None,see TM-8 (FCL,2013) 15 None,see TM-8 (FCL,2013) 16 None,see TM-8 (FCL,2013) 17a A17a.1,A17a.2 17b A17b.1,A17b.2,A17b.3 17c A17c.1,A17c.2 18 None,see TM-8 (FCL,2013) 19 A19-1.1,A19-1.2,A19-1.3, A19-2.1,A19-2.2,A19.3-1,A19-3.2 20 A20.1,A20.2,A20.3,A20.4, A20.5,A20.6 21a A21a.1,A21a.2 21b A21b.1,A21b.2,A21b.3SSa22A22.1,A22.2 A 7 SléAnallen}23 A23.1 "z 24 None,see TM-8 (FCL,2013) a ©25 None,see TM-8 (FCL,2013) ©26 A26.1,A26.2 27 A27-1.1,A27-2.1,A27-3.1,A27-3.2(9)Broad Pass area}Plate A-BP,A-BP.1,A-BP.2,A-BP.3| 1 I Castle Mtn.fault |Plate A-CME,A-CME.1,A-CME.20extension Clearwater Mtns.|Plate A-CWM,A-CWM.1,A-CWM.2,a area A-CWM.3 DRAFT "paseo STATE OF ALASKA SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT FIGUREALASKAENERGYAUTHORITY ,:{=ALASKA STRIP MAP TILE AND PLATE INDEX A0.1 pate_12/16/13 __@--ENERGY AUTHORITY 79218900Alaska.2189LineamentReportOctober2013,modified01.06.14This explanation applies to all figures and plates in Appendix A. Geologic Units from OFR 09-1108 (Wilson et al.,2009) pee 8 ..FjWater,ice field,or glacier Unconsolidated Deposits Qs Surficial deposits,undivided Qat Alluvium along major rivers and "in terraces .-Landslide and colluvial deposits ::Glacial deposits,undivided Young moraine deposits |Major moraine and kame 'deposits Qge |Glacioalluvium Qgo |Outwash in plains,valley train, =="and fans Qge |Glacioestuarine deposits Sedimentary Rocks |Sedimentary rocks,undivided Kenai Group,undivided Tts ;|Tsadaka Formation 7 Teh |Chickaloon formation Km |Matanuska formation KJs _Turbiditic sedimentary rocks of ---=--*the Kahiltna flysch sequence r Jtxe ]Undivided Chinitna and Tuxedniformations Jn |Naknek Formation,undivided Jtk |Talkeetna Formation,undivided Limestone and Marble "I Eagle Creek Formation,marine4argilliteandlimestone Note:For full explanation of geologic units see USGS OFR 09-1108 and USGS OFR 98-133. Igneous Rocks Volcanic and Hypabyssal Rocks Tw |Tertiary volcanic rocks,undivided _Thv |Felsic volcanic and sub-volcanic rocks Tem |Mafic volcanic rocks |Dikes and sills |"Nikolai Greenstone and related rocks |Slana Spur Formation,volcaniclastic "rocks "Pat |Station Creek Formation andesitic ==!volcanic rocks Plutonic Rocks Th 4 Intrusive rocks,undivided Toegr_Granitic rocks "Tpar,,Granitic rocks of Paleocene age Biotite-hornblende-granodiorite TKg _Granitic rocks,undivided TKgd |Granodioritic rocks :Kgd |Granodiorite Str |Trondhjemite "JPaur Diorite,gabbro,picrite,and pyroxenite *sill and dike swarm complex Quartz diorite,tonalite,and diorite Jqm |Granodiorite and quartz monzonite Melange and Metamorphic Rocks "TKag :Gneiss Jpmu |Plutonic and metamorphic rocks,------ undifferentiated "JPam Amphibolite 'JSPmb Marble Trnm |Metabasalt and slate TrPavs.Basaltic to andesitic metavolcanic rocks .Past.Metamorphosed Skolai Group Geologic Units from OFR 98-133 (Wilson et al.,1998) g Ice fields or glaciers i :Water To|Qs _|Surficial deposits,undifferentiated Tertiary volcanic rocks,undivided Thf 1 Hypoabyssal felsic and intermediate intrusions Tiv Granitic and volcanic rocks,undivided Tegr |Granite and granodiorite "Mzpca Phyllite,pelitic schist,calc-schist,and amphibolite-of the MacLaren metamorphic belt "Kgu |Granitic rocks KJf |Kahiltna flysch sequence :Tres |Calcareous sedimentary rocks :Trnm|Metavolcanic and associated metasedimentary rocks Tectonic Features from WCC report (WCC,1982) Detailed feature,from site-specific maps Regional feature,from small-scale maps For completeness,features from both regional and detailed scale Faults Compiled by FCL (Wilson et al.,1998;Wilson et al.,2009;Williams and Galloway,1986;Clautice, 1990;Clautice,2001;Csejtey,1978;Kachadoorian, 1979;Smith,1988) wanes Jemma ome Fault,approximate Fault,inferred or queried Fault,certain Fault,concealed --«-High-angle reverse fault,approximate -4--High-angle reverse fault,certain -4---High-angle reverse fault,concealed -4-7--High-angle reverse fault,inferred or queried --*Thrust fault,approximate - -4 Thrust fault,certain -4---Thrust fault,concealed Lineament Hydrographic Features from National Hydrography Dataset,2000,1:24,000 scale Stream a Ice mass figures have been included.The location of regional features may not always be accurate and the detailed features may be limited to the extent shown on original figures. nen Location of trench T-2(shown on Figures A14 and A16) [|Lake or pond Other Items Location of photograph taken during 2013 field reconnaissance,labeled with photo ID and showing view direction 1169 GPS waypoint GPS track line,July 2013 STATE OF ALASKA SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT FIGURE"fesre ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY STRIP MAPS EXPLokeee<=XPLANATION{=ALASKA 1OF 4 A0.2 pate_01/06/14 @@-_>ENERGY AUTHORITY Attributes of lineaments mapped by FCL (2013)that apply to all figures and plates in Appendix A Reconnaissance (INSAR)Detail (LIDAR) 1-5 .-.-.-10 Lineament Groups Lineament group mapped for this study coinciding with previously mapped fault or lineamente#eeees 77 -===88 No previously mapped fault or lineament coincides with lineament group Cross Section xFatPree»489LineamentReportOctober2013,modified01.06.14Attribute Morphology”Description Examples y Linear break-in-slope bisecting a Uphill-or downhill-facing scarps, planar surface ateral moraines or kame deposits 1 y along lateral margins of valley |glaciers 2 4 Abrupt changes in slope adjacent |Linear range fronts,faceted ridges,pon Ge to otherwise relatively horizontal terrace risers,steep downstream y (and planar)surfaces faces of rouche mountonees 4 Linear U-shaped trough Glacial valleys,ice-scoured flutes, 3 J flood-scoured flutes, 4 +Linear V-shaped trough Active stream channels S \_!Li id Drumlins,water-scoured terrain,5 inear ridges eskers 6 n/a A series of aligned features Could include attributes #1 -5 (also 77)above and/or aligned saddles,tonal lineaments,etc. 66 n/a Data artifacts Linear seams between data sets collected on different dates 88 n/a A series of aligned features,Could include features with which are too small to individually |attributes #1-5 above and/or map at the given scale aligned saddles,tonal lineaments, etc. 99 n/a A line which encloses a broad An area of jointing or of glacialexpanseoffeaturesallhavingthe|striae all having the same,parallel same orientation orientation 10 n/a Anthropogenic lineaments Roads,rail roads,power lines and other linear clearings,etc. Geologic Units Bottom deposits of 914 -975 m lake Overprint denoting glacial drift that is mantled by bottom sediments of glacial lake that extended to 914 -975 m abovemodern sea level,largely confined to middle Susitna valley,above ice dam below Fog Lake (off map)and apparently bounded on east and south side by glacier ice.Does not cover late(st)Wisconsin (last major)morainal systems.No shoreline features are mapped. Bottom deposits intermediate (777 -747)lake Overprint denoting bottom deposits of a local lake that covered melting glacier ice between Tyone Lake and Lake Louise,apparently behind Tyone Spillway,and drained as the elevation of the spillway was cut down from 777 m to 747 m above sea level while stagnant ice was still in valley bottom. Bottom deposits of last regional lake Overprint denoting drape of bottom deposits over drift and thick lake sediments that persisted in Copper River drainage basin from just before deposition of Old Man moraines to a time when glaciers had retreated to within 16 to 24 km of present glaciers:older than 13,000 years. Explanation for relevant geologic units of Williams and Galloway (1986)shown on Figure A20.5 and A23.1 Symbols Location and letter designation of radiocarbon-dated stratigraphic section in accompanying text. Ice boundary,morainal ridge,kame terrace,delta,or other ice contact feature marking edge of glacier:hachures toward glacier. Shoreline of regional lake:mapped for the lake in Copper River basin where at 747 m (maximum elevation);the elevation to which Tyone Spillway was eroded,and successively lower levels in the northern part of area between 747 m and 701 m above sea level.Lesser recessional shorelines mapped by Nichols and Yehle (1969)not shown. Upper limit of post-glacial (Holocene,in part)shoreline of Tazlina Lake from elevation 564 m down to present lake level 544 m caused by lowering of lake as Tazlina River has deepened its canyon. Delta of glacial lake,including those of modern glacial lakes such as Tazlina Lake. Linear or drumlinoid feature,due to ice scour,direction of ice movement indicated by arrow. Spillway for glacial meltwater,including that stored in large glacial lakes. Contact between map units where not glacial boundary, most commonly between different levels of lake deposits. Active (?)fault,lower Sonona Creek,offsetting unconsolidated deposits. Location of selected erratic boulders,mountain top erratic stones transported by glaciers,e.g.Sheep Mountain;many occurrences on mountains lower than 1829 m not shown.79_218900_AlaskaNotes:*Arrow points to location of the mapped feature.cate 01/06/14 @@-_ENERGY AUTHORITY DRAFT fusre STATE 2GVy AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT FIGURE . 2 ALNSRA NER STRIP MAPS EXPLANATION A03;<=ALASKA 2 OF4 : 2189_LineamentRe79_218900_Alaska_portOctober2013,modified10.18.13Explanation for relevant geologic units of Smith et al.(1988)shown on Figure A21b.1 UNCONSOLIDATED DEPOSITS Alluvial deposits FLOODPLAIN ALLUVIUM -Unconsolidated deposits in modern Qa stream drainages.Material ranges from coarse,unsorted gravel in highland valleys to finely bedded silt in large river drainages. Glacial deposits Odt TILL OF LATE WISCONSIN AGE-11,800 to 25,000 yr B.-P. 3 Oct TILL OF EARLY WISCONSIN AGE -40,000 to 75,000 yr B.P. 2 sroreres SCHIST -Medium-to coarse-grained biotite-plagioclase-quartz schist Eth oad with local garnet and feldspar porphyroblasts to 0.5 mm.Dominantly gray or brown weathering.Includes local horizons that contain randomly oriented hornblende on foliation surfaces.Stippled pattern near intrusive contacts indicates hornfelsed zone in schist.K-Ar age of 57.2 m.y.was obtained from biotite in this unit in the adjacent Healy A-1 Quadrangle (Smith,1981). PHYLLITE-Silver-gray,biotite-bearing phyllite with biotite porphyroblasts toKp2mmlong;locally calcareous.Minor compositional banding with more quartzose layers parallel to foliation.Biotite yielded K-Ar age of 53 +1.6 m.y. (loc.3 on map;Turner and Smith,1974).Grades into ampbibole-bearing phyllite (Khp)unit. Aad AMPHIBOLE-BEARING PHYLLITE -Medium to dark gray spotted phylliteéwithplanarlaminations.Spotted with porphyroblastic biotite.Interlayered with beds that contain randomly oriented amphibole on foliation surfaces. Amphibole prisms commonly 0.5 to 3 mm long.K-Ar age of actinolitic hornblende from this unit in Healy A-|Quadrangle is 64.1 m.y.(Smith,1981). MAP SYMBOLS Contact -dashed where approximately located ;dotted where concealed;queried where inferred -__.«3 High-angle fault -dashed where approximately located;dotted0whereconcealed;queried where inferred.D,downthrown side; U,upthrown side te ea Thrust fault -dashed where approximately located.Sawteeth on upper plate.Arrow indicates dip of fault Lineament -inferred from aerial photographs,may represent fault Modified from selected portion of Smith et al.(1988)explanation Explanation for relevant geologic units of Reger (1990)shown on Figure A21a.2 GLACIAL LIMITS ------=Glaciation of unassigned age,dashed where discontinuosly mapped wore ree =Glaciation of Illinoian age,dashed where discontinuously mapped wor wr ae ww Glaciation of late Wisconsin age,dashed where discontinuously mapped wow www Glaciation of Holocene age,dashed where discontinuously mapped OTHER FEATURES ==Prominent meltwater drainage channel 8 Radiocarbon sample locality PROMINENT WAVE-CUT SCARPS ee 3,700-Ft (1,120-m)lake,dashed where discontinuously mapped,dots on descending scarp TOT WT «=3,650-ft (1,110-m)lake,dashed where discontinuouslymapped,open triangles point down descending scarp wav vw =3.400-Ft (1,030-m)lake,dashed where discontinuouslymapped,solid triangles point down descending scarp AREAS INUNDATED BY GLACIER-DAMMED LAKES !3,700-ft (1,120-m)lake 3,650-ft (1,110-m)lake 3,400-ft (1,030-m)lake Explanation for relevant geologic units and features from Acres,1982 shown on Figure A6.1 --Contact 4-A Thrust fault --Shear QUATERNARY Alluvium,alluvial terraces and fans Ice disintegration deposits Till ,Qo |Outwash TERTIARY [Tsu]Conglomerate,sandstone=and claystone MESOZOIC TRIASSIC Basaltic metavolcanic rocks, metabasalt and slate /=ALASKAdate_10/18/13 @@->ENERGY AUTHORITY 3 OF4 DRAFT STATE OF ALASKA SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECTsroALASKAENET FIGURETT.RY AUTORTAY STRIP MAPS EXPLANATION AOA 2189_LineamentRe;portOctober2013,modified10.18.1379_218900_Alaska_Bar beneath letter symbol indicates map units identified on Geologic Units Explanation for relevant geologic units of Grantz (1960)shown on Figure A20.1 Explanation Lineaments,Faults,Contacts, Synclines,and Anticlines aerial photographs or from distant views (Tf,Qd,ete.)UNCONFORMITY r ++( + JnbsQrgQalQtcQis ;; uns 3 Rock anual Talus and handstide >bess veeee ----Anticline,dashed where approximate,dotted3glaciersposPosa=ne where concealed 3 z Fines,Jns=Qqd |? 8 <Q g Qgo >Qd fr Jnbe D)..:x 9 Wl ---+++--Y--Contact;solid where certain,dashed and queriedFGlacialdepositsSurficialde-| . Naknek formation where uncertain 'g Qe,moraine,outwash,and proglacial posits,un-|2 'g Jnbs and Inbsm,diotitic sandstone and siltstone with coqui-©0000 me me it:solid where certain.dashed and queriedalakedeposits; differenti-|G 3 noid beds;where uncertain,dotted where concealedQed,proglacial lake delta depostts h ated s 4 Jns,siltstone and shale with limestone concretions;, Oe i cle raueh proae ae Inbe,cobble and boulder conglomerate at base offormation; L glaciation J !RS Jnc,cobble and boulder conglomerate above base of formation ---Lineament,approximate UNCONFORMITY -_*-$Syncline,approximate UNCONFORMITY >Jcsl 7 JesTf/<&bs Chinitna formation a Fluviatile conglomerate and coaly sandstone wu Jesl,siltstone and shale with limestone concretions;Rr G Jcs,sandstone and siltstone (6) Ww UNCONFORMITY ef ,Y&3 Js ©'$3[25 2 =Km 3 5 <Sandstone a] 3 «a S 5 Sandstone,siltstone,and conglomerate with fossil wood frag- 3 Matanuska formation(?)=ments,and many mollusk shells in some beds.Equivalent3SultstoneandshaleLto,or oniy slightly older than Jcs&) 5 Kee UNCONFORMITY ia) L Cobbie conglomerate 23 JtiUNCONFORMITY(?}3 Tuxedni formation uw =Sandstone with calcareous concretions and some siltstone .5 =and shale WESTERN PART OF AREA EASTERN PART OF AREA fo)04> .UNCONFORMITYKePdA kK Calcareous sandstone,Wl gsiltstone,and claystone UO E Jtk SS 3 Rd Talkeetna formation 3 Kn Knu $Lavas and pyroclastic rocks of intermediate composition,sand-8 3 stone,and argillite,all dominantly marine.Sedimentary Pe Nelchina limestone \Calcareous sandstone,3 rocks become dominant in upper part of the formation JbaAcalcarenitesiltstone,and claystone Ks Sandstone,locally conglom- eratic and coquinoid to west,siltstone and clay-L stone /J D RAF T "fuses STATE OF ALASKA SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT FIGUREALASKAENERGYAUTHORITY :=>S STRIP MAP EXPLANATION A0.5oe/«=-_ALA CA 40F 4 : pae 10/18/13 >ENERGY AUTHORITY 410000 70200007020000. Ye, wbaweoe|Ae i fr7RES<a Pew A RG TR OOS & .*a 5 ay 2189LineamentReportOctober2013,madified10.18.13425000 go]ae - oR OTA*sa "TORT>ene 2 6 ;3 id :SoeeSNi we ee,aan +oahOe 415000 420000 ---T vt ° é} ro) }S qQ So se (---co or 410000 Notes:1.See Figures A0.2,A0.3,A0.4,and AO.5 for explanation. 2.Geology by Wilson et al.,1998 79218900Alaska_415000 420000 425000 Oate Tons ' 10/18/13 STATE OF ALASKA ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY /=ALASKA@@-ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT LINEAMENT GROUP 1 MAP DATA FIGURE A1.1 79218900Alaske12189LineamentReportOctober2013,modified10.18.13A) B) Location of Location of Photograph C Photograph B View looking northeast from location A towards the confluence of the Jack River and the East Fork Jack River.Arrows point along the alignment of mapped lineaments. Note absence of linear expression in Quaternary deposits. Location of Location of Photograph A Photograph C oe om me ae -*Sys . View looking southwest from location B along alignment of linear features.Arrows indicate the alignment of the mapped lineaments. C) .-3:san 4 View looking southwest from location C at a detailed view of aligned uphill-facing scarps.Note Thf contact is up-slope from the scarp in the distance.daSinDatiDate DRAFT pesre ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY LINEAME NTCGROUPT FIGURE :;=<Eceueaed >ALASKA A1.2 10/18/13 @&-ENERGY AUTHORITY PHOTOGRAPHS portOctober2013,modified10.18.132189_LineamentRe79_218900_Alaska_7010000400000 "I 7010000400000 405000 - Ne a /*&bg an)a™hn 4eel aoo) ame: 410000 415000 7010000Notes:1.See Figures A0.2,A0.3,AQ.4,and AO.5 for explanation. 2.Geology by Wilson et al.,1998. 405000 in _- see Toy >4rhs.Ri ai' re alinDl hata r =.7010000405000 DRAFT fesre ALASKA ENERGY AUTHOR ITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT FIG U RE *:LINEAMENT GROUP 2 A21 Oate 10/18/13 /=ALASKA@=-ENERGY AUTHORITY MAP DATA 79218900_Alaska_Kaupelt/2189_LineamentReportOctober2013,modified12.16.13a eee we a me -47:ot apemeEeameetnee2AEoeeeemare.. Dee ee 7AGS..i of a Bee we Photograph taken from location A looking east-northeast.Arrows show the alignment of FCL-mapped lineament.Note lack of apparent deformation in bedrock exposure along Jack River. Pricesaageeie yatel'depos! /=ALASKAaENERGYAUTHORITY MAP DATAAND PHOTOGRAPH DRAFT Re ALASKA ENIE RGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT FIGURE a LINEAMENT GROUP 2 A22 o000002 000S669 0000002 ooosé69 400000395000390000 dame IS nai -oeb 4Raaeee4 385000 ereey?weo=7 380000 400000 0000002 000SE69 0000002 000S669 395000390000385000380000 A3a.1 DRAFT FIGURESUSITNA-WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT LINEAMENT GROUP 3a MAP DATAreeiS="sw< oy oe pate_10/18/13 hereNotes:1.See Figures AQ.2,A0.3,A0.4,and A0.5 for explanation. 2.Geology by Wilson et al.,1998. EL BLOF PayIpow 'EL 0Z JeqoIaO Poday juaweaUlT 6812 "eyseiy 00681262 2189LineamentReportOctober2013,modified10.18.1379218900AlaskaB) A) View looking east at likely solifluction-related scarps on hillside that correspond with mapped lineaments.Large arrows point along lineaments.cadeeAe,AySytithe%tyteeae.%h7'wa'”View looking west along 3a lineament expressed as sharp ridge within Kahlitna flysch (KJf).Apparent color change and topographic expression may suggest a geologic 4GViedegreQ surface . rR -"Nowe weesAnitee View looking east past ridge,with unfaulted Quaternary sediments in the foreground and far distances. structure,however,none were previously mapped.The feature may be a result of DRAFT weathering because of lithologic change within the flysch.-fucra ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT FIGURE z i «>KA LINEAMENT GROUP 3aBasan/=ALAS PHOTOGRAPHS A3a.2 pate _10/18/13 @&-ENERGY AUTHORITY portOctober2013,modified10.18.132189_LineamentRe79_218900_Alaska,400000 405000 415000 69950006995000re,Sipe ta OETsusCTia-Cr 415000 TT. *69950006995000:antl : 400000 405000 410000 415000 Notes:1.See Fi AO.2,A0.3,A0.4,and AO.5f | DRAFT otes:|.see Figures 4,J,4,an .9 Or exp anation.STATE OF ALASKA ITNA-WAT/Y TRIC PROJ 2.Geology by Wilson et al.,1998.fers ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY LUNEAMENT GRO moves FIGURE 3 «<_UP 3b A3b.1cate10/18/13 _=-ALASKA MAP DATA 2189LineamentReportOctober2013.modified10.18.1379218900AlaskaFe .ee a ee ?*'Pata 7116/2013 9:31:36 AM (-8.0 hrs)Dir=W Lat=63.06508 Lo MSL WGS anc SassTNESigetneagoeaeORT REET Med Fk aESeereliaeeeeeeetTUESTeabaPEGG 7/15/2013 10:39:48 AM (-8.0 hrs)Dir=WNW Lat=63.07601 Lon=-1 View looking west along lineament 3b projection.South-facing escarpment indicates a reversal in kinematic morphology. Escarpment of Photograph A "and centage tO : Fe NE Son;is RENN "occas 7/15/2013 9:49:28 1=ESE Lat=63.07086 Lon=4148.76224 Alt=4604ft MSL WGS 1984Se View looking east along lower talus scree field that shows decreasing relief at west end of lineament 3b. s on a %Tes*A 2 «sf me "ee 'we a es ae Lee fe at .at oe.aRock=OP ' .ion7glaciers View looking west along lineament 3b projection.Holocene rock glaciers are not offset,and lineament is expressed asa linear valley.DRAFT feors ALAS KN ENTE Sey AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT FIGURE we |=A S LINEAMENT GROUP 3bPesta/<=ALASKA PHOTOGRAPHS ASb.2 date 10/18/13_@&=-ENERGY AUTHORITY 35500!360000 365000 37000 id ad =en 6975000T Dune aa >ra ”_6975000360000 6975000portOctober2013,modified10.18.13365000 il 6975000Fd om fe E NO 0 1km 2 L "f p-\:a i Ne OZ bh3aLan,a oO Timi ran el !rd a Ms a* 355000 360000 365000 370000 DRAFT 2 Notes:1.See Figures A0.2,A0.3,A0.4,and AO.5 for explanation. ----o 1 SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT 8 2.Geology by Wilson et al.,2009.-fusre ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY FIGURE 5,i a>ALASKA LINEAMENT GROUP 5 A5-1.1 - 10/18/13 /=MAP DATA Date @@ >ENERGY AUTHORITY 79_218900_Alas2lt/2189_LineamentReportOctober2013,modified10.18.1369750006975000365000 370000 375000 380000 385000 T OR ery wr T a.Flt all| Chulitna Pass 6975000i oy cain :an,por L roe ned an -fe « rh Sf fis eta Pe os .pote bee AfyxeeaeeeoepyJS 7s N fee :a 7 ane -thane!-a en ie 365000 370000TeRie.ld Aa a | et ol at oa ee petheaetteaahcathOr” pl De ers recto 6975000365000 370000 Notes:1.See Figures A0.2,A0.3,A0.4,and AO.5 for explanation. 2.Geology by Wilson et al.,2009. 375000 385000 DRAFT er ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY TINCAMENT GROUP 5 FIGURE ,4 =<_A5-2.1 cate 10/18/13 /ALASKA MAP DATA@=-ENERGY AUTHORITY 2189LineamentReportOctober2013.modified10.181378218900AlaskaA) Side hill bench <"+.7/15/20 View looking west at eastern part of apparent side hill bench. View of linear gullies developed on bedrock slope. Mapped lineament approximately shown. B) :;+ait APlgdge wee ge D) eatee4 "AAT Se aero ot BY ae Mea.oe -&aves?a At ae=snes ag HENiseeieeeae#}eS bt ae et doe=ie 8 O nas? Fay View of drainage with mapped lineament approximately shown. Date DRAFT STATE OF ALASKA SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT cro ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY FIGURE F =ALASKA LINEAMENT GROUP 5 A5-2.2«<-PHOTOGRAPHS10/18/13 @&___ENERGY AUTHORITY portOctober2013,modified10.18.132189_LineamentRe79_218900_Alaska4350004350006970000 435000 6975000 440000 6980000 /oP (aaNe Location of esker and Photograph J J.§ 445000 SE 440000 "TS Eo 3 Y Te and eesioe.ate TT ey BAN SS -<i Ge WN =<oe Nee are il The >>Bs Sl 'wJP aur':* an ifte 6965000 440000 Notes:1.See Figures A0.2,AO.3,A0.4,and AO.5 for explanation. 2.Data frame has been rotated 45°east of north. 3.Geology from Acres,1982 (top)and by Wilson et al.,2009 (bottom) 6970000 445000 6975000 450000 D RA ET STATE OF ALASKA SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECTforALASKAENERGYAUTHORITY FIGURE :LINEAMENT GROUP 6 AG1 pate 10/18/13_/=ALASKA@@__>ENERGY AUTHORITY MAP DATA 6980000 2189LineamentReportOctober2013,modified10.18.1379218900.AlaskaA)S53 Approximate location --#2; 'oo.gp POLOTN,Jo Talkeetna fault ie ' ,'I :ya ™..map trace *7 4,:ee uae qiegyiterfad7.8 Me feTORNebPa3a rtogataif?Ai Sap &BasheATRepgcFLwigFueStraseyGEESARedLOUjoteresf View looking east along lower river bank at apparent alternation zone distinguished by color contrast,possible juxtaposition of Triassic metabasalts and undifferentiated Tertiary sediments.This location is east of the mapped projections of the Talkeetna fault. D) .1 s t awaaesagahergyMONSDontheReevotLie@ Fayam pte Be avat : : -_-=). <Orevas Be).weer edd at ry 7+7 .thgd CIT |only LedeteA)ere Se ta tie aa ae xe PY Seenehuerhe,mar kr {Sarah oe 'aAATARGoadSHgs jah .8 Age ee ce saetsLENSEREn3ee 4 ttme,pews<idBeGah::Re i 3 42,y ' NaS ye Fe wet , at Sia fh i View looking east at apparent flat-lying contact between Quaternary lake sediments View looking west at projected trace of Talkeetna fault whose ground expression is absent in Quaternary surface. (above)and Quaternary till (below).Arrows point to contact.preSiea"aueee?,».oF.PeeFe;Baoote.t" aSctuiiagTead,,eeay"A:wweanomwgoevaseeooceeSeieeLotaezeoy.aRwt"aang-_-ee«v7,;.?¢iiiteees©PaaaderSayreweteeanalI.oPMas,--rn,Vy rai ; DRAFT STATE OF ALASKA SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT GRO THORITY"4 Aeeee AALS LINEAMENT GROUP 6 sonal /=ALASKA PHOTOGRAPHSpate10/18/13__@@-ENERGY AUTHORITYween FIGURE A6.2 2189LineamentReportOctober2013,modified10.18.1379218900Alaska.E) G)-=wen, Approximate S-|location of...0.3'Talkeetna fault osmaptrace*"ity, :dak PoeMAbsafteow as oN Vode View looking north-northeast past ridge,with flat and apparently undisturbed Quaternary sediments in the background. H) e noemerTal gst .aor ee ag A,baied Ga ees af4.',Ben ee a YFeeMstags ps enty?-">os AG my Ech ee we LJ .7 .:_f 2 t &ew BefSOMgarawotsraiceaaieaeaSA$e ay ALES fae eg "eyeatTRwyet.Me oe View looking west at apparently northwest-dipping beds in Tertiary sediments, relatively consistent with northwest dips measured by WCC (1982)in Tertiary sediments along west bank Watana Creek. View looking west at bedded (lake?)stratigraphy exposed in eroding bluff.Beds appear relatively horizontal,but may have a sense of non-planar geometry because of semi-circular outcrop.Note fallen trees that indicate erosion/slope movement. DRAFT fe cra ALASKA ENIE CGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT FIGURE :"3 LINEAMENT GROUP 6 A6.3a=ALASKA PHOTOGRAPHSvate10/18/13_@&-->ENERGY AUTHORITY 79218900Alaska2189LineamentReportOctober2013.modified10.18.13View looking north at linear esker nearly coincident with map projection of Talkeetna fault. View looking at shallow soil pit dug in esker crest.Upper black,gray,and reddish soil layers nthe are Holocene tephras.Scale is in centimeters;the upper 45 centimeters of the pit are in view. Date DRAFT fears ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT FIGURE ae 3 =Al A S|4 A LINEAMENT GROUP 6 AG.4 10/18/13 /@=@-ENERGY AUTHORITY PHOTOGRAPHS 2189_LineamentReportOctober2013,modified12.16.1379_218900_Alaska_445000 6970000 450000 6975000 455000 6980000 4 7 'id TY re FT NES 7 °fo) 3 fs} S oO aL Qora© o J+ oO 8 8 43 5 3 fon) © :Bo| .ee CleoceeeNE &ro eee'aw Ey Z,7oiomewaa'akteJeWw, 6965000 , ary o Qo 4 [a] 4 io) 2 Oo 2 oO ©wT o 8 ° 3 g <@ oD __ene:Apion. or eamiihe..calByrn :.» a 3 .i , ::qurcas name ee anges Ans One,4 i ae xs Am ™!qk,.a i.a ™ 1.:all Bypee iy ON,> - taortt :. i To 1' -1s :Lpal 450000 6965000 Notes:1.See Figures A0.2,A0.3,A0.4,and A0.5 for explanation. 2.Data frame has been rotated 45°east of north. 3.Geologic map by Kline et al.,1990. 455000 460000 6975000 DRAFT Lee Date_12/16/13 STATE OF ALASKA ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY /=ALASKA@@->ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT LINEAMENT GROUP 7 MAP DATA FIGURE A7.1 2189LineamentReportOctober2013.modified10.181379218900AlaskaA)<e .ee -ow feo,:we".'.i”4 bay .o a +L*so =* ..7 ..ied Cans .- * a4 d - -oo% ee ; _-q ;a::tots _ .- 4 AS -.«: *ed _,rere ; us . +. 4 iy IN .w - t Ya . . wo - - * . *s a.a }24 : Fr _ .a .vo .'.4 te ,ny s hoo ; ..Crs .,4 ."vo by " ='"ot us *ad .7 a4 '>a ae:a. "OS .4 OS= wt "yh § ds >V4 C)Ne 2] a o* View looking up-valley at incised drainage that coincides with mapped lineament and previously mapped fault. B) D) ate ore +. .i - .+.Call .. :o a «. Poe oy -we osfsBE ee pecanyemeen TT , ete ee ee View looking down-valley from the top of the drainage seen in Photograph C.DRAFT STATE OF ALASKA Gre ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYPod[=ALASKApate10/18/13_@@--ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT LINEAMENT GROUP 7 PHOTOGRAPHSBiais FIGURE A7.2 79_218900_Alaska2189LineamentReportOctober2013,modified10.18.133800006975000 6970000 385000 6965000 3850006960000 TNT?Be T T "y wr |- . ).2 ,e -8 xu \ ; "Ff 3 -@ . +.*.ae . er .te-*ae .°+*.;'y. ,wt a?*a oe .Soboeek. = 'Pa oe 17 '*' .f .,* So foots!Fe ra *h ba sce A fi mo +¢. :'Whaeg,s . i ; . .*8 .hs Se 4 JA . 'ae Sy ,'wee . ;.: '" ;.7 Mg -.idee 'tape "4 fe,Glaciakstriae continue |Cee et .%,.\/ ."ye .Ngeebytacrosslijeamentgroup,'a oe ?.' p undeformed -7 a »A,5!,.bs . ty /.or,eeeent tan eCh ;"moe ''°G y ofr e ' t sé a ,oy yas ae "at ys a ee Oe Oe .vu bus an sui te Ee YO H a | 6965000 380000 6960000 v "T T teil ial 7 A i eel a f =e 'oo Phié%,'Ag Py,a 3850006975000 6970000 6965000 380000 6960000 Notes:1.See Figures A0.2,A0.3,A0.4,and AO.5 for explanation.DRAFT 2.Data frame has been rotated 75°west of north.cro STATE OF ALASKA SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT FIGURE 3.Geology by Wilson et al.,2009.Tt Aenea eo YALA.LINEAMENT GROUP 8KA A8-1.1'10/18/13 «ALAS MAP DATA bate @x-->ENERGY AUTHORITY 2189_LineamentReportOctober2013,modified10.18.1379_218900_Alaska_385000696500038000038500038000069650006965000 6960000 6955000 390000 6950000 6945000 rm mari 7 T orn!oo : .ty 'yr j ay &; :.4 a 3 =) *So 'Qo 7h ore my -..°. FG i ear poy yes i ag y.'if a S ees ee Fe |-pias .Fa "i {not co:neice deflected across lineament °}hoy.i ('an ee ':ceri dd PS ae*ban We osy _iw 'an J fa .5 a Jen 380000 6960000 6955000 6950000 385000 2 3 So oO oO h i . :\ So,L fe .\:'"2 \hae Sareea y i .ut NS 380000 6960000 6955000 6950000 6945000 385000 Notes:1.See Figures A0.2,A0.3,A0.4,and AO.5 for explanation.DRAFT 2.Data frame has been rotated 75°west of north.cro STATE OF ALASKA SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT FIGURE 3.Geology by Wilson et al.,2009.Tt ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY:a ALASKA LINEAMENT GROUP 8 A8-2.1«_MAP DATAdate10/18/13 @=->ENERGY AUTHORITY 2189LineamentReportOctober2013.modified10.18.1379218900AlaskaA) C) wae=7/21/2013 10:39:57 AM (-8.0 hrs)Lat=62.68974 Lon=-149.23619 Ait=1355m MSL WGS 1984 om View looking north at middle portion of lineament group 8 along mapped inferred fault. Brackets show position of fault but note that no geomorphic expression of faulting is readily apparent. -7/21/2013 10:43:28 AM (3.0 hrs)Lat=62.74463 Lon=-149.27271 'Alt=1470m MSL WGS"1984 - View looking south opposite that shown in Photograph B above.Mapped fault runs between large arrows.Note presence of many solifluction scarps in the landscape. D) PR Oe :an a + -tae Fe eu:epa SDm=7/2112013 10:40:55 AM (-8.0 hrs)Lat=62.70957 Lon=-149.23899 Alt=1346m MSL WGS 1984 =r Close up view of saddle area shown in Photograph A.Brackets,again,show position of fault but note that no geomorphic expression of faulting is readily apparent. Sets ALE jopatvechaaz priChalDOG . 2-7 77:74/15/2013 3:18:27 PM (-8.0 hrs)Lat=62.73436 Lon=-149.25245 Alt=4209ft MSL WGS TE-s View looking north down the prominent,deeply incised linear drainage.Mapped fault runs between large arrows. Date DRAFT ] en a ALASKA ENE RGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT FI GURE pers LINEAMENT GROUP 8 8.2.2Eoaaad/==ALASKA PHOTOGRAPHS10/18/13 @@-ENERGY AUTHORITY 79_218900_Alaska_2189LineamentReportOctober2013.modified10.18.13G) awaan View looking north at north (right)bank of Susitna River showing oxidized mafic dike interpreted by WCC (1982)to not be truncated by the linear drainage. .STs 5 arIClE _Ve LeoTate eos 260ft MSL View looking west directly towards 1-to 2-m-high east-facing scarps shown in Photographs F and H.Large arrow points along mapped lineament. F) H) 4 *2 ey 7/4 519043 3-98-50 PM (8 0 hrs)|at=6?6644 |orl=-149 99347 Alt=3407f MS!WGS 1984 View looking north along 1-to 2-m-high east-facing scarps along southern portion of lineament group 8.Large arrows point along mapped lineament.Note the presence of solifluction lobes with an alcove or recession in between them that create an irregular and curving topographic scarp. tees ed 'No expresssion of lineamentreadilyapparentalongstrike_ot ""7Holocene alluvial fan.terracea disrupted <2- any ee eee ks ane om,coeBegreAA, ar eh OeSyedeOS elt ina poe «is i an a.nets we VSO a and Trenge View looking south opposite that shown in Photograph F above.Large arrow points along lineament position and trend. :3 =LINEAMENT GROUP 8Boned{=ALASKA PHOTOGRAPHSpate10/18/13 @=-ENERGY AUTHORITY STATE OF ALASKA SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT FIGURE-puer2 ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY A8-2.3 189LineamentReportOctober2013,modified10.18.1379_218900_Alaska_|698000038500038500069800006980000 6975000 wena7.yonJ$aeraace«tT?vt!.aLosedSadwehmRyi7 x 390000 6970000 6965000 6960000 .A a ny vr T.*Ld T T °T r --_| a 4.ie tay |: -ed :s .'* Ls a .™t \.Ya 'oe ..|.™,\/ _:.*; at of me cD Saree ">+a '. '1 :ory ES '4 é ;ft.----.,™/,§pan é ®"2 TPs ,oe $4:4 WCC Segment 2 _oo i 4 an x -us +a cme!vik 14 };4 j ww Fo 'a oN ' Ln Ae %5.PF eos?cs wk '4 eek oF a Seedy ''fy ,'.:">+.Sy 1 'th }”f j 7 ;* ALT wo}or m4 '{3 ae oe an P ee a 8 s "a=) eas We Se ,:,7 '13 i aan . tee 3 _ ..*a a *pe 5 te é ' ' MM Y |\ane :.yale as 28lyisto|;"48 whew, con Se a f 4 3 Neat .&@ 'ae **reris Vee ys s .ee *''* - aa *ROW an .i . r . ™ /ig *vy j 'vee /re P '7 -.*. ©» 2.Ay ed !j nit nine ooo dy aiaPe ee er 1 *Mek ;6975000 6970000 6965000 6960000 i : ¥T 3 T 7”SJ ''Sy a vy T +se eenaad T ut > :YoN\ "4 VN . _ a . . :+ a .{ .$As "ae re a3ictanrenVay,- e } é :=';Tvu h am mo So 8 3 i L ns Sl imi 6975000 6970000 385000 6965000 6960000 Notes:1.See Figures A0.2,A0.3,A0.4,and AO.5 for explanation.DRAFT 2.Data frame has been rotated 75°west of north.cro STATE OF ALASKA SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT FIGURE 3.Geologic map by Wilson et al.,2009.f ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY .a ALASKA LINEAMENT GROUP 9 A9-1.1«<MAP DATAdate_10/18/13 @_>ENERGY AUTHORITY 79218900Alaska_|189_LineamentReportOctober2013,modified10.18.133900003900006965000 6960000 395000 6955000 6950000 Li aired T Pal wo }Noss \.';mn r y .r #oe,woo . .' , = ,.Ye.'é ca '.">€,*yy .a'}a'Pay ' 5 N A La ''i 2 aiite -°B :. }»' ,.oo & '.\ey Joe &:,No expression inApparentrockoF, !ra Quaternary deposits type contrasts /' be 9 8 oOo & >on i * 4 ®." ; toe rr Granodiorite mF ro 7 >- exposed in bs ad .drainage ws i z,4 & .\\. 5 7 i .a '.y . oan - i %.ape'.by 4 ¥»*i.ae a.my };tN BN 7onAIIme&pro us ie wa.6945000 co] [=] Qo iw t[a)) ve) oO Qo OQ wo fey] om 6965000 6960000 6955000 Notes:1.See Figures A0.2,A0.3,A0.4,and AQ.5 for explanation. 2.Data frame has been rotated 75°west of north. 3.Geology by Wilson et al.,2009. 390000 6945000 DRAFT tm vate 10/18/13 STATE OF ALASKA ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY /=ALASKA@@_--ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT LINEAMENT GROUP 9 MAP DATA FIGURE AQ-2.1 2189LineamentReportOctober2013.modified10.18.1379_218900AlaskaA) ;-_eee we_tote ee DECnes :Fie ae StaveDee am -5 pee , 3 =mt ee 5 . xaterereefansat,*ey at fa,Bienes :7123/2013 2:33:44 PM (-8.0 hrs)Lat=62.ae 06521 Alt=3197f MSL WGS 1984 --| The first in a sequence of 5 photographs looking northwest taken along a series of north-trending,east-facing aligned slope breaks in the southernmost portion of lineament group 8.Large arrows point along lineament. C) OAT ptt ROE PET Armen ainy a pon ec FM --7/23/2013 2:33:53 PM (-8.0 hrs)Lat=62.66629 Lon=-149.06521 Alt=3221f MSL WGS 1984 _-: Photograph 2 of 5 looking northwest.Large arrows point along lineament.”Photograph 33 of5 looking northwest.Large aarrows5 point along lineament._ Date _10/18/13 /=ALASKAqmENERGYAUTHORITY PHOTOGRAPHS DRAFT GRO ALASKD ENTERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT FIGURE ae LINEAMENT GROUP 9 A9-2.2 79218900_Alaska2189LineamentReportOctober2013,modified10.18.13D)baleeescod i¢itTyre.7'ee Mae axei,pee fe °a eg bi *36:45PM (-8.0h View looking north from location F.Geologist at base of east-facing break-in-slope is 170 cm tall. Aye .vt Lat=62 67675 Lo132:34:37 PM (-8.0 hrs) Photograph 5 of 5 with view looking northwest.Note that lineament expression has died out and brackets bound the location of its projection. t-"¢€rs)Lat=62, View looking almost 180 degrees from that shown in Photograph D.Large arrows point along lineaments. pate 10/18/13__@-->ENERGY AUTHORITY PHOTOGRAPHS DRAFT ferre.ALASKE ENTERGY ATTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT FIGURE ="i =<ALASKA LINEAMENT GROUP9 A9-2.3« 2189LineamentReportOctober2013,modified10.18.1379218900Alaska._.._.H) ws LWGS 1984 - View looking south from location |across area within WCC's segment 3.Note the lack of expression of any lineaments in the broad depression. RLS whol Ng ..L <n esiNw*ee CBA oh 4,7 }>ae Oa OE ¥x "Pa;caees YerttuaaeREAS I OEM iL nha GY a Exposures of widespread granodiorite in unnamed creek near GPS waypoint 176 in terrain mapped as flysch (map unit KJs)by Wilson et al.(2009).The geologist is approximately 175 cm tall. i iciar eae td -r =- 'OAT A Ame en ES "lh hyaA ¥ View looking northeast at right wall of linear v-shaped canyon.Large arrows point along apparent bedrock type contrast. bate 10/18/13 @&=-ENERGY AUTHORITY DRAFT fess o ALASKA ENERGY AT THORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT FIGURE *4 LINEAMENT GROUP9 7Eom/=ALASKA PHOTOGRAPHS A9-2.4 415000 420000 6955000 425000 430000 6960000 2189_LineamentReportOctober2013,modified10.18.1379_218900_Alaska_41500069450004150006945000Le } <<To rs a ao', °*,oo-a oo -¥Bb - 'mee ;a ee%ann q 2,co)|eer IPmb 8eee'oOee,eeey rE A,wTeee3h=| ry ? . .A 8 -4 8JPmba@ : To at oO cad .é \ wT et -Fa ' nite ey err le ' . % . s - os a"-Qs .wn ” a * ve o rt a :ie a,-i : ™7 ae : . ', Pzv a \-Pw ' L er »2 -' oni a A a >i ke eer Beeiitincke L I A e® 6945000 420000 425000 435000 6955000 oe A |NSA 7 43500069600006945000 420000 425000 Notes:1.See Figures A0.2,A0.3,A0.4,and A0.5 for explanation. 2.Data frame has been rotated 30°east of north. 3.Geologic map by Wilson et al.,2009. 6950000 430000 435000 6955000 DRAFT Toone * pate __10/18/13 STATE OF ALASKA ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY /=ALASKA@=-ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT LINEAMENT GROUP 12a MAP DATA FIGURE A12a.1 79218900.Alaska.2189LineamentReportOctober2013,modified10.18.13ai - View looking northeasterly along lineaments.Arrows point along trend and position of lineaments. View looking at notch in bedrock with expression of apparent northwesterly dip. eae) 7I id . eeexc tecine|SeeTtDBRoS Citeote een<2on=-148.41321 .tad4AIOaeWSae View looking southwesterly along glacially scoured surface. bate 10/18/13 /=ALASKA@&--ENERGY AUTHORITY PHOTOGRAPHS DRAFT STATE OF ALASKA SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECTfecesALASKAENERGYAUTHORITY FIGURE oa LINEAMENT GROUP 12A At2a2 portOctober2013,modified10.18.132189_LineamentRe79_218900_Alaska430000 6960000 435000 6955000t*¥'¥=Foe 3S Nag 4 *-ese gue irvAnenOT 4wae;2 po all a"me a 43 __§955000 4450006965000 696500045000069600007 6955000*, 450000 Z ef 69650004500001'-aw os .aN 3Fyes|Aiming 3 430000 435000 6955000 440000 445000 450000 8 Notes:1.See Figures A0.2,A0.3,A0.4,and A0.5 for explanation.DRAFT 2.Data frame has been rotated 20°east of north.fusro ALASKA ES ORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT FIGURE 3.Geologic map by Clautice et al.,2009.: Y AU LINEAMENT GROUP 12b 12 4 Date 10/18/13 /=ALASKA@@-_ENERGY AUTHORITY MAP DATA 79218900Alaska_2189LineamentReportOctober2013.modified10.18.13View looking northeast at erosional break-in-slope mapped as an individual lineament. Feature is absent in the background along projection of strike. View southerly up-valley into glacial valley along lineaments geomorphically expressed as linear valley and drainage.Underfit creek in deep linear valley suggests landform created by sub-ice channei meltwater. B) Approximate location ofCc)Photograph A aksaEokStBot'ee 3 View looking southwest down-valley along lineament geomorphically expressed as linear valley. Very little alluvium has accumulated in the drainage,and glacially sculpted bedrock is shallow. View northerly down-valley along lineaments geomorphically expressed as linear drainage. Thin cover of unconsolidated surficial sediment mantles the Paleozoic rocks. pate 10/18/13 @=->ENERGY AUTHORITY PHOTOGRAPHS DRAFT creo ALASKA ENTERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT FIGURE ro -_ALASKA LINEAMENT GROUP 12b A12b2(a) sweowwse2189LineamentReportOctober2013,modified10.18.1379218900_Alaska6970000 6965000 6960000 6955000 6950000 oa OPTI rt ;we -™ a .y os ae '-;An y aAeoe:at 5.88 ™'.B ;:1 , rs):' i i y i "yNo deflections, °in drdinages : o gL '. at |Tr.g . Grassy swaie drainage =é iIceScour; ;groovesBede: "a a ;.opts VAL g3697000069650006950000Q "T=wo TOT:eee x :: 8 8 vT wt UL|3 aN +ta)i A ee jo&ail vieweae *"*Sf Z f i 3 6970000 6965000 6960000 6955000 3 Notes:1.See Figures A0.2,A0.3,A0.4,and AO.5 for explanation.STATE OF ALASKA GUSITNA WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT FIGURE2.Data frame has been rotated 90°west of north.Perr ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY INE3.Geology by Wilson et al.,2009.LINEAMENT GROUP 17a A17a.1danad=>ALASKA vate 10/18/13 @&-ENERGY AUTHORITY MAP DATA 2189_LineamentReportOctober2013.modified10.18.1379218900_Alaska_A) v 8 Se "é a ROL,ARRERS weieatt4an shy PRS -711512013 4:42:28 PM (8.0 ns)Dir=SE Lat=62.76989 Lon=-148,99521 Alt=3102ft MSL WGS 1984 View looking south at linear canyon thatis tributary to the Susitna River.Canyon bottom and creek drainage have sinuosity not apparent at smaller scales. *,wey 41Byte cme&"rterf LAW ieeraaAyeapweltsBakRTNGS B) rr rs \t a Saeeeee Le a ay Read.ie hee4a ae iy:_q if rt ww!Pa af'ys we AtLom"4!et TAY: ah Tetave -AN SNoklayn ">the:PN ahOy.i -'eae"al &eeharWap ;Me Ol,if Ancitegee?ee:getSF-caneendUte:View looking north-northeast at creek in boggy (Holocene)drainage.Lineament is expressed as a depositional contact along the shallow bedrock knoll. DRAFT SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECTpersALASKAENERGYAUTHORITYLINEAMENTGROUP17aDod/==>ALASKA PHOTOGRAPHSpate10/18/13__@&-ENERGY AUTHORITY FIGURE A17a.2 2189LineamentReportOctober2013.modified10.18.1379_218900_Alaska,6950000 6945000 L 0ae,6950000)400000Daneka 'Leet ke 6935000 6930000 Of river alluvium. .ied , pap de aappareitmapdrafting .error.No evidence was*'rfoundtosupportfaulting! t 4050006950000400000405000Notes:1.See Figures A0.2,A0.3,A0.4,and AO.5 for explanation. 2.Data frame has been rotated 75°west of north. 3.Geology by Csejtey (1974),Talkeetna Mountains,Figure 4 (top) and Wilson et al.,2009 (bottom). 6940000 oate_10/18/13 /=ALASKA @=-ENERGY AUTHORITY MAP DATA "y 7 sftp.i 'of eG _you aA ay |i" 6935000 400000 6930000 STATE OF ALASKA SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT FIGUREfesreALASKAENERGYAUTHORITYLINEAMENTGROUP17b:,At7b.1 79218900_Alaska_2189LineamentReportOctober2013,modified10.18.13A)=- }.bee pron -eae ESTAS .'en ' |.-7 rer et ee ;errr2a ae oe ea a:iecthiens wws - View looking westerly at break-in-slope at base of hillside and undulating glacially- eroded bedrock knobs in foreground. as we ee ".wey OP ae es a:'2MeeewreoeaSa 7/17/2013 3:02:42 PM (-8.0 hrs)Dir=SSE Lat=62.55119 Lon=-148.89916 Alt=3222f MSL WGS 1984 View looking south southwest at lake margin of glacial valley.Lineament was mapped at base of slope, and is not expressed as a scarp-type feature.Apparent colluvium along projection of lineament does not appear offset. View looking south southeast along glacially-sculpted terrain along which Csejtey (1974)has inferred a fault within the glacial sediment that mantles the bedrock knolls (Figure A17b.1).DRAFT fuses ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT FIGURE wood =-_LINEAMENT GROUP 17b A172ow/=ALASKA PHOTOGRAPHSDate10/18/13__@&-ENERGY AUTHORITY 79_218900_Alaska2189_LineamentReportOctober2013,modified10.18.13oraph Sea View looking south along southern extent of group 17b,along which an inferred bedrock fault is mapped by Wilson (2009).Photographs B and C are adjacent to lake. View looking south at pro-talus rampart and GPS waypoint 15.Note lateral distance between base of slope to crest of rampart.Geologist for scale is about 180 cm tall. Go Pg OE ae Wy |VEN eS4TRGfale5aBetFEeeay"2Pee Lamar.Bree et_ 4 Ee og OE Ro ETNteSASSsapFhNe Pro-talus rampart constructed from blocky,frost-shattered volcanic rocks. Photograph is centered on more sub-rounded glacial erratic (granitic) that is not similar to any of the local hillside lithologies.Field notebook is 19 cm tall. pate 10/18/13_@-->ENERGY AUTHORITY DRAFT cro ALASKA ENTERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT FIGURE i}=<ALASKA LINEAMENT GROUP 17b A17b3=<PHOTOGRAPHS /2189_LineamentReportOctober2013,modified10.18.1379218900_Alaske6930000 6925000 410000 6920000 6915000 ”arr TTT,AVE :ange Fy,;=™eACETle4ageeRYAleS40afy7LF.405000PN Vd le oe pd.=enDJyedWy "mM )hey tg,')oY ad «8 ML,- im fy Uf _#\}rh:pe of oh,a:(fe)Wan 'Be,se 1 Je LYE ss 4.b-*ee at OR r. A)6910000. ;4100004 f=)sis a , .:"4 s :.a,s i ¥:a wesOFf.,*: > ft . . t a é es oyeSki.Ae =: ' :oie?Pore eee ae eeteMw6920000 hie a -'7 :ae >; re onl xTvfAj.\405000Q 8 Oo 8 3 8 + 8 Q Qo 400000 6925000 6920000 6910000 DRAFT Notes:1.See Figures A0.2,A0.3,A0.4,and AO.5 for explanation. 2.Data frame has been rotated 70°west of north.sro SNERGY AUT SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT FIGURE Pa ieee ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY 3.Geology by Wilson et al.,2009.r -ENERG 4 4 LINEAMENT GROUP 17c A17c.1Bosnead=ALASKA MAP DATA °- pate 10/18/43 /=<ALASKA 79218900Alaska,2189_LineamentReportOctober2013,modified10.18.13aa x. :"ew i,oh,fw te .atte,-* hgg ."Te SE ame ates gS Te 7on.patel eeenSEx .ST i eS beeROReteeeedSet a 3' a ra .Be « :Ltt aww 'Le a eewo°par 3 we ee:3 Foy eet ' Ce MA i'+Xise tiltol View looking southeasterly at lineament expressed at erosional drainage cutting through the likely Holocene rock glacier deposit. . -_ aa View looking northwesterly (opposite that in Photograph A)at lineament expressed as erosional drainage cutting through the likely Holocene rock glacier deposit. View looking southeasterly at lineament expressed as likely Holocene rock glacier deposit contacting the valley floor. Eocg od /pate 10/18/13 @=-ENERGY AUTHORITY PHOTOGRAPHS DRAFT cro ALASKA ENIE Ray AUTHO RITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT FIGURE a4 =ALASKA LINEAMENT GROUP 17c¢M7o2=. 189_LineamentRe79_218900_Alaska_IportOctober2013,modified10.18.136910000 440000 6915000 Boao rook 6905000445000 6920000 450000 445000 Black Lake 4550006920000T 6905000Vi 455000 a]455000Payee oon aa . x g Tee -ane f ,a !al Ss 440000 6905000 445000 6910000 450000 6915000 455000 o DRAFT Notes:1.See Figures A0.2,A0.3,AOd.4,and AQ.5 for explanation."fesre ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT FIGURE 2.Data frame has been rotated 45°east of north.':-_-LINEAMENT GROUP 19 A19-1.13.Geologic map from Wilson et al.,2009.{=MAP DATAdate10/18/13 @=_>ENERGY AUTHORITY 2189LineamentReportOctober2013.modified10.18.1379218900Alaska,A) Drainage shown in Photograph B >a peg ar oN on,ene oer aan a cesswiePhotographtakenfromlocationAlookingsouthwestalong-rock type contrast (contact?)and towards mapped lineaments in steep-walled,v-shaped, linear drainage.Arrows point along apparent contact between less-resistant rock on the north and more resistant and craggy outcrops on the south. B) Drainage shown in Photograph Cc .._-eZ eet ae Photograph taken from location B looking west along mapped lineaments and apparent rock contact in steep-walled,v-shaped,linear drainages. :,DRAFT Photograph taken from location C looking west at head of steep-walled,v-shaped,cra STATE OF ALASKA SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT FIGURE linear drainage where mapped lineaments correspond to apparent rock contact.ee ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY LINEAMENT GROUP 19Bead/=ALASKA PHOTOGRAPHS A19-1.2 Date 10/18/13_@@->ENERGY AUTHORITY 79218900_Alaska2189LineamentReportOctober2013.modified10.18.13D) F) me ° y =. > :Pa 7% '5 ae +,'os *ae . mee ''4 y 4 an" *'”'ES toe . yoy y,ad s.@ a Meagh ade: :Y . 7 oo,og F of - a :.*.LEohiet racks Manas ,an } °7 pita me Ee .”3 wat 3 . -.et at a ne -ox re :"i .7 4 ..s .': 'got r :*wos Y.-N te >ia 4 Ft ge HP, : .Lie qe.\bd .a.#om *Famed pent . 'wee Re a ets eee ".-rd "4 -oe,wa,an,>wos *:'y S *Afcoe>.a,* .%4 .<'oe wf-eRe »tk res Hoge Weis. ' ° ::a4 sf . :af ; . So ge 4 i rs ags-*}y ae.ot "he *aul an n°ws *eno ae!i ne wet yg es ae as 2 %2*tos Ke hq «+'os wt Coy coi aa an one no Tg 'x .*"pr "?"teehsc . . +>st a)ie CN meet we -=Ne i : :-a0 > ,+*3 .ce 7?'7 Me meee oe ,ie. -ott _eee ws "= Photograph looking northeast from location D along the western continuation of the apparent rock type contrast shown in Photographs A,B,and C.Arrows point along apparent contact. 4 a os ie .-_: ” ?wes poe ae :a |ee aot i -_-mig gy .-se "a .we ta aaa wee :» * " pe ad sd ."nnd .° _ae wee”oo hd a q a -Pa ae " j we cat 4 P -er oT a *- ,.' *4 AYJapsye :.BOs nce+. ea Qt alauneeSTi j hy,a wou ag -=2.4 pages tty ir iciCuVesTOU eedaayve : .|owe_aS esseOLA ien = wiPhotographlookingnorthwestfromlocationFshowingapparently |undeformed rrock glacier and/or glacial deposits along strike of the mapped lineaments and apparent rock contact shown in Photographs Athrough D. Photograph from location E looking southwest down the ridgeline shown in Photo- graph D.View is 180 degrees from that in Photograph D.Note presence of rock glacier and glacial deposits in valley bottom.Arrows point along apparent contact. DRAFT croF4 ®4 3 3Beecoonetavate_10/18/13 STATE OF ALASKA ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY /=ALASKA@&--_ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT LINEAMENT GROUP 19 PHOTOGRAPHS FIGURE A19-1.3 2189_LineamentRe79_218900_Alaska_portOctober2013,modified10.18.1369200004500006920000450000450000 6925000 455000 6930000 460000 6935000 |aanf :oao, Lingar Sub ice channelsyinfnPhetographB |rs ;?Location of siriuous sub--ice ?channel in Photograph B 69350004650006930000 a T cee Qreseeels etx el- Sub-ice fluvial channels iY rN Jtk Jpmu ' oon--senceSeren eccccassncusensee®AR 6935000465000455000 6920000 Notes:1.See Figures A0.2,A0.3,A0.4,and AQ.5 for explanation. 2.Data frame has been rotated 45°east of north. 3.Geologic map in top panel by Williams and Galloway,1986 and bottom panel by Wilson et al.,2009 760000 6925000 465000 6930000 D RAFT STATE OF ALASKA SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT FIGUREPereALASKAENERGYAUTHORITYLINEAMENTGROUP19A19-2.1 oate_10/18/13 /=ALASKA @@-ENERGY AUTHORITY MAP DATA 79218900AlaskaF189LineamentReportOctober2013,modified10.18.13A) C) Photograph taken from location A looking west.Arrows point along trend of mapped lineaments along southwest-facing aligned break-in-slope.Note the rounded and subdued nature of break-in-slope.Relief across break-in-slope is 125 m.maOverview photograph looking southwest from location C along alignment of mapped lineaments.Arrows point along trend of lineament group 19.Note absence of expression of lineaments within the landscape across the Goose Creek portion of the lineament group. Linear sub-ice --fluvial channels | Photograph looking southwest from location B.The sinuous sub-ice channels are not large enough features to be seen on INSAR data. 'i =<LINEAMENT GROUP 19Leoadf=ALASKA PHOTOGRAPHSvate10/18/13_@&->ENERGY AUTHORITY DRAFT STATE OF ALASKA SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECTereALASKAENERGYAUTHORITY FIGURE A19-2.2 portOctober2013,modified10.18.13'2189_LineamentRe}79_218900_Alaska6935000 460000 6940000 465000 6945000 470000 TY T 6930000460000L { T T 69450004750006930000 465000 6930000460000ot "TN |\ 6935000 470000 aaa 6940000 475000 T ar 69450004750006930000 465000 Notes:1.See Figures A0.2,A0.3,A0.4,and AO.5 for explanation. 2.Data frame has been rotated 45°east of north. 3.Geologic map in top panel by Williams and Galloway,1986 and bottom panel by Wilson et al.,2009 6935000 470000 Date 10/18/13 @=-ENERGY AUTHORITY MAP DATA 6940000 475000 DRAFT ter ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY UNEAMENT GROUP 19 FIGURE "A19-3.1=ALASKA 79218900Alaska2189LineamentReportOctober2013.modified10.18.13A) Rifts a Mae7Deter|* Ee ie:”wen ogg A,Pisbenltt "ae,-IL aa vances Photograph looking north-northeast from location A along the east-facing break-in-slope that defines the northeast portion of LG 19.Arrows point along alignment of mapped lineaments. mt oe a aa ¢ em Photograph looking south-southwest from location C at widely spaced,near vertical,well-developed joints in trondhjemite (aka tonalite)bedrock.Joint spacing is 1 to 1.5 meters.Predominant orientations ofjoints are 042/80SE, 012/85SE,and 082/85SE but other orientations exist.Joint faces have clean surfaces with relief of minerals of 1 to 3mm.No gouge or mineralization observed on joint surfaces,nor any sense of movement indicators (striae or mullions). B)6940000468000a apes .+Pli a Photograph looking northwest from location B at sub-ice fluvially-eroded channels.Arrows point along the trend of mapped lineaments that make up group 19. 466000 6942000 468000 ct 7 L ma vr dg- 2 4s i is) *e -_Ke nr,+ ae .r ue 9:g ey :4a Mae ”tb-N ™oe --.mF g N - °- a we .: - ”w -" - ... Nima OS . meal - he ralbie'Ly a . 470000 Detailed DEM showing orthogonal joint sets at northeast end of group 19. Elevation from 2010 InSAR data (meters) 1269 903 ||/EALASKApate10/18/13_@=-ENERGY AUTHORITY PHOTOGRAPHS DRAFT STATE OF ALASKA SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT FIGURE7jueraALASKAENERGYAUTHORITYaanLINEAMENTGROUP19A19-3.2 2189LineamentReportOctober2013,modified10.18.1379218900Alaska48000068900006895000 480000 6900000 485000 6905000 490000 6910000 495000 sh -\Vert:&,an >"7 :; Sy.:RY:oa os - a NA '. PX ya%,rfwet aN,cea aonApparentrock oe DYtype.contrasts .-f ,i Ly _soe a 1 wy \_-Location of granitic \\\"\ \ iigteso? apeSN;f hoe,ry is CANN fy ereyyglacialerratic:}nRAKS Wee onVeAae|'\eS Lt art SARS z wa aod 6910000PONT eS I7otw.tam T e a .a aii Mee"aoa "S we INS MESS ves eee e ete cee Diener Lease?I 890000 485000 6895000 490000 :4 =TY r =a Y \atin ae 8 8 A Apparent rock S or 15 3 »f_.\type contrasts : Q y | . Bh .| Sl %1mi ®:i ,.! 6890000 485000 6895000 490000 6900000 495000 3508000 Notes:1.See Figures A0.2,A0.3,A0.4,and AO.5 for explanation.DRAFT 2.Data frame has been rotated 45°east of north.fuses ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT FIGURE 3.Geologic map from Grantz,1960.2G =Al ;SKA LINEAMENT GROUP 20 20.1 cate 10/18/13_@z-ENERGY AUTHORITY MAP DATA 79218900Alaska.2189LineamentReportOctober2013.modified10.18.13A) C) .'eS er aereataes Photograph looking northeast from location A. B) and 30-m-wide swale.Swale only exists in saddle;it does not continue down either side of saddle. Location of straight-line projection of mapped fault shown in Figure A20.1 (upper panel) L Photograph looking southwest from location C.Basal contact shown by arrows.Note that base of contact is not apparently deformed along projection of fault and that no expression of faulting in valley bottom is apparent. STATE OF ALASKA SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT FIGUREernALASKAENERGYAUTHORITYt3LINEAMENTGROUP20el{=ALASKA PHOTOGRAPHS A20.2 pate 10/18/13_@@-ENERGY AUTHORITY 2189LineamentReportOctober2013.modied10.18.1379_218900Alaska.G) i Photograph looking north from location G along mapped fault of Grantz (1960).Arrows point to approximate location of mapped fault.Note absence of apparent geomorphic expression fault. 7 8 Na emt 8 RR ge,-oe wae - Arrows show location of FCL mapped lineament (shallow U-shaped swale).Note no apparent deformation of white-bedded sediments (glacial lake sediments)along projection of lineament. D) F) = - L.rye.wovaASPhotograph looking northeast from location D.Note absence of deformation in ridge line of Tf. a) rthwest from location F. f"STATE OF ALASKA SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT {puera ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY 3 LINEAMENT GROUP 20;e cond /«==>ALASKA PHOTOGRAPHSpate_10/18/13_@&-ENERGY AUTHORITY FIGURE A20.3 79_218900_Alaska2189LineamentReportOctober2013,modoified10.18.13H) AR ne -cig.DAME TET IE ETTESS FTREN tape:,we ee Lee eo eegege itn aie |aN KEE eae cae oe et 4 oo 3 7 -am .4 * ton .ve -.on y +- 'vt.p .. .ae «seeaaet >.eu ”. q y .i . 4 _ .nag se : " Boon "ey id ms +4oe-stage*- *=a F -v noe ,4 =woe a +- .we Rw LL ge -ra .™.7:-a <oe -bn nnnwo-apos."es - . Sw . -ms - > Taf OF s "*a -= ' -" -+-.36SaLm-.SaaS-*Ske -_,* . c eat saute ed : . .a -.ws +4 "*oe "ve os we see :.Pan .vi -bd .: v .a * .Fe ine ".,nia ". we we eas *Cb he abe -: a ees Pa ,_-ate. Photograph looking north-northeast from location H along queried mapped fault of Grantz (1960)that lies outside of lineament group.Note absence of fault expression. proces:*i |en ae "oe ee aetna"- Photograph looking north-northeast from location |along queried mapped fault of Grantz (1960)that lies outside of lineament group.Note absence of fault expression. DRAFT Date 10/18/13 ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY / STATE OF ALASKA =ALASKA @@-ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT LINEAMENT GROUP 20 PHOTOGRAPHS FIGURE A20.4 69100006900000portOctober2013,modified10.18.132189_LineamentRe,460000 470000 480000 490000 500000 510000 Poe N o "a 0 oo; Soi ers 7°7 )oN .;.!;\6]K\a a 4 3 Crater Lig}.Ae ' .:4..;|q AS.ie]U / |a,0 ,t . &° Py o +4 0 rt & -Stagnent ©yi Explanation Little Nelchin 200 Glacial drift mantled by glacial lake s Lobe , g g sediments from 914-975 meter lake _,)"34 as Grane \fe)->\\"%glacial -oO:wm = Location of radiocarbon sample Sot {o IN =LZ\AA at 0/4 on of KX OY -an w Q 2 f\a 2 °off»Ice boundary (morainal ridge,kame ae o terrace,delta,etc.)marking edge of an Glacial lake ->7 va glacier.Hachures toward glacier ”sediments S,a (nS Linear or drumlinoid feature from ice aw r . scour.Direction of ice movement . .t13indicatedbyarrow Spillway for glacial meltwater,Jy.extension a -- -lineament group . ee °a 6910000690000079218900_Alaska_gts including that stored in large glacial .am,cee ef \ij 4 A 83b.doutrtatti lakes a -TT _,a '7 72 3 ©,.os -J ZA <4 .q A 8etLittleNelching:3 /['CO rineament group of,ee ee Little Ebosfo, :Nelchina \. v7 7 =wg OS pee Sree;ede eh FS 4 .Lobe \-ee ger Fem,cor ys | = ,eras ose 'j t-:+a cudor ':oe >»¥k i. 7 ._ie -7 ',. .2 i 0 1 4 -eer a '!Dane ...L jo "1 460000 470000 480000 490000 500000 510000 Notes:1.See Figures A0.2,A0.3,A0.4,and A0.5 for explanation.DRAFT 2.Geologic map from Williams and Galloway,1986.STATE OF ALASKA SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT FIGUREpasesALASKAENERGYAUTHORITY LINEAMENT GROUP 20=H «= Ree A20.5etl=ome 10/18/13 /ALASKA WILLIAMS AND GALLOWAY MAP (1986) 68960004840006896000484000portOctober2013,modified10.18.132189_LineamentRe79_218900_Alaska484000 6898000 486000 6900000 488000 6902000 490000 . S T AQ TCT o™-s \ Prominent :Powe albenéhes,6902000*Sho apparent,Ydisruptign ofi i f .\,contacts «ete MQContact may not &3 an ene 'ae x be displaced ST Sg, * *;.ris »Jns 7 y *. | ae °?:\ ) rd . wa y Prominent ;fesbreak-in-slopedefinescontact 4920004 ;\-.between /If and Jns en cat =:| -486000 _;6896000 _____8898000 6900000 x 492000 Re ee Ps . °*; Pp . *x 2 aoe 4 .aoe -.«*%we -pe,a wn COR "se :a 4 At i i,° es °hay Ne a E 3 ("4 >1 "ao pf ren ;a 'an,; pee te ot *5 . .. 4 «iGontact appears Pog : .4 oe : :-:2 : -cer " ,if 4 hin S .to be mapped NS -?7 "ie fy 7 ;.wo ey t hich.wd sis -_a .,.00 hig .™4 No >| \aewat¥<«ited y A :a. en et.; 4 :.4.1 o j 2 .es >,(fd -,Fa 8 ,-ot :'a g aa XY %.op).™,fy 3 w a 20 y * fe)We b "<< .\ ae \Contact '"vaappearsto., .be mapped "-Comidct digitized |3 too low fromGrantz (1960): .Si _'2 i i *|' 486000 6896000 488000 6898000 490000 6900000 492000 Notes:1.See Figures A0.2,A0.3,A0.4,and AO.5 for explanation. DRAFT ° STATE OF ALASKA " 2.Data frame has been rotated 45°east of north.Tere ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT FIGURE 3.Base map is slopeshade derived from INSAR data.LINEAMENT GROUP 20/==>ALASKA MAP DATA A20.6 pate_10/18/13 @@--ENERGY AUTHORITY 79_218900_Alaska189LineamentReportOctober2013,modified10.18.13430000 7015000435000 7010000 440000 For eT T "> oO i oO ' 18) Linéar ridge">(terminal moraine?) i 'Ea .r a 7 ;3} , ' 1 WMS,of 6 ' Ma og a 4 @ ay f_ J oot ra "a U f cy LS 'o i)> °BN '9 . A.ss .4 a oO,:Esker complex ,Linear stream/fe 2 swale it _ a y 8 4 .> 'Right lateral .moraine complex:+8 8 { g :-*wee a"gait 6 te oeerall 430000 7005000 435000 7000000 445000 "7 I oN TS i gy oe 3 t 3 cS5. R ft Es 4 ae en 8438 f Ld Ss : an 'i 0 1km {1 !3)f [io™.'J kau|4 T |i ]=L”.-4 LX\aeJEea,cans VN 4 430000 7005000 435000 440000 7000000 445000 Notes:1.See Figures A0.2,A0.3,A0.4,and AO.5 for explanation.DRAFT 2.Data frame has been rotated 30°west of north.ceo STATE OF ALASKA SUSITNA.WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT FIGURE i ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY3.Geology by Wilson et al.,1998.Tt pana A SKA LINEAMENT GROUP 21a Ata. ;/=<LA MAP DATAvate10/18/13 @=->ENERGY AUTHORITY 2189_LineamentRe79_218900_Alaska_portOctober2013,modified10.18.1342000070200004150007015000A)!Linear (terminal moraine?)ridge \ r.col as af oe My Rete aedgEBR a hrs)Lat=63.15.EDIE RELIED YBrushkanaC ek ny att it=4763ft MSL WGS 1984 View looking north across Brushkana Creek along north-trending linear ridge and roughly linear stream.Arrows point along alignment of ridges interpreted to be terminal moraine from northeasterly flowing ice. B) 7/13/2013 3 cote te 53:07 PM (8.0 hrs)Lat=63.19456 Lon=-148.24432 Alt=4217ft MSL WGS aeBieOCK-EOTEOs Higuiliia 1984 View looking northwest across western portion of lineament group 21a towards approximately 120-meter-tall rock-cored drumlin.View is looking up the Brushkana Creek valley.Note lack of obvious expression of mapped lineaments in the foreground. oe e or ©Bais ; ¥Oe 48aneMe- -;7 ro 4% OY BLE of.ae oy .:ie a .'t i .ots 7 Fe . . : : :a Y oO.hh -a 3 Bel -oeeoeywotow\22 ”ee Say BY Oy See -gr”,oO TENE ab Pe©Pa oy ...t y . ; .an fe ey et fs a”4 '48mea.a A Rv"48CegMBeng?fe weaoyeeea0 re oo Ae eSLoongfenn';"fs x "wf :v4 a ve :A a i ae 3 aN /_3 ar " ' f 4 .:' ,'"e id ;oe ' 5 a 'soo iSiha\*"748Se;A \Bt,ATS 7 : v .fhe,i are \3 as y f |-;-:4 ):2)WA"-aN if A _'"%,(ue ": : im ote q ,; a nee ,.ib o,''bs ': Joi)Ye ee,#got Pd Wen :Fr a -{\-);.pe oy rd a ”Fhe a i 8enene|tea ;aa oe me aA -FS .a,arr 13 415000 7010000 420000 435000 440000 445000 450000 6990000 Notes:1.See Figures A0.2,A0.3,A0.4,and A0.5 for explanation.DRAFT 2.Data frame has been rotated 30°west of north.Ro STATE OF ALASKA SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT FIGURE 3.Photointerpretive map of glacial extents by Reger,1990.T ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY LINEAMENT GROUP 21a Anta 4.indicates ice flow direction./=ALASKApate_10/18/13 @=->ENERGY AUTHORITY MAP DATAAND PHOTOGRAPHS 2189LineamentReportOctober2013,modified10.18.1379218900Alaska.70050004400007005000440000445000 7005000 450000 - 455000 7000000 460000 /(eR Gy nee ' f°; ..ae '* ; : =T ee a hwtd--*te +ate \-4.LY, ee a a ae ae .2 2 oA "!ott secee nla -i aeLL.gph ,+8 °:,<o -.a 4 2 . j an .2 ce fos,'\Y .:ev \ip OO ™ :het Wey 8,er a 3 ="4.as°°ve ,a 7?.NN ef:a e e "SZ ,* ;5 weet os)oe ':eo *! 6 oS - Y se ( .se %8 Figg ..g Bn . S |"4 AZ be 440000 7000000 445000 T 8 QO 3 @ 8 8 ¢ Phd lL : :|mona "}SN {/Mzpeq 440000 7000000 445000 450000 6995000 455000 Notes:1.See Figures A0.2,A0.3,A0.4,and AO.5 for explanation.DRAFT 2.Data frame has been rotated 25°west of north.ERO STATE OF ALASKA SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT FIGURE 3.Map in top panel from Smith et al.,1988.vo |ALAA NERY AUTHORITY 4.Geology in bottom panel from Wilson et al.,1998 Peace «=<ALASKA LINEAMENT GROUP 21b A21b.1 10/18/13 @=->ENERGY AUTHORITY MAP DATADate 2189_LineamentReportOctober2013.modified10.18.1379218900Alaska.A) - Photograph looking east from location A.Large arrows point to downhill facing slope break visible in INSAR and mapped by Fugro (2013).Field reconaissance revealed smaller lineament (not visible in INSAR data)lies along the small arrows and projects toward the vertically-dipping bedrock exposed in the creek bank shown in Photograph B. Eee cenorepSmeBat: 3 cn ee a tym abe brseatSfaPSK.St 5 ke an <2 . eed x,Barer siststans en's a Tes? -Ps ssa.4 "81,,ot >d ny .ms :,7 ,:%ENN.pea;'ya Lait then an ; eet i .tS es 5h =*ie 26%ere Sal ae ee eit tt een,ane *mete >.''. Overview of east-southeast striking,vertically-dipping phyllite exposures located at GPS Detail of phyllite exposure showing 3-meter-wide resistant bed of metamorphosed fine to Detail of vertically-dipping phyllite. waypoint 009.medium sand.Thick,resistant beds,such as this,are interpreted to create the lineament shown by small arrows in Photograph A above.Geologist for scale.DRAFT fuses ALAS KR ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT FIGURE «<<LINEAMENT GROUP 21bCoe/=ALASKA PHOTOGRAPHS A2tb.2 date _10/18/13 @=-ENERGY AUTHORITY 2189LineamentReportOctober2013.modified10.18.1379218900AlaskaE) Tele yda:.r eke Set hit 3 wen §aaa?7 Wf,a"@Set9,9 OFiSPeeeBsPeegeaeee !7 : te eyee 7 ne tet 2.: . : : ; or oe RAs y Saeed Gee'lf BH -Ye |,.oo.ac NE wos <Oe:eS <|*ener =om 2 -2 "meet:..Ss Se iite Spier fe.{..4 P :'f ab:'ts - 3 .CPC Opa irae =VeOX zh i," : .a Sat ¥2 '5 ::'; . :> .. ;OCC we ey "7 as . :.a Sattler mae : . - *vO ae .' CS ae a en, ep eoe roy:esTeeseae Photograph taken from location E looking east-southeast along trend of FCL mapped lineament (shown by arrows).Note absence of any apparent deformation in surficial deposits or in terrace riser on left bank of Note no apparent deformation in right bank of stream or any expression of faulting in broad,flat terrace Butte Creek.surface mapped as Qdt3 by Smith et al.(1988). Photograph taken from location F looking west along trend of FCL mapped lineament to west of Butte Creek. pate 10/18/13 @&-ENERGY AUTHORITY DRAFT ae aN LINEAMENT GROUP 216 hones oad -A21b.3Besa==>ALASKA PHOTOGRAPHS 2189LineamentReportOctober2013,modified10.18.1379218900Alaska435000 6995000 ah geenaaon rene a."Deadinan *. ar a :#.Mountain®- 3*ae oyig b 440000 4300002YD™uptoe445000 6990000 450000 F ThyutfMages o..e.is if 7 7 °' |ee ee z A foe .nr 3 e oe Par fof : :ER ge,oa 4k 'a +121s w ive] D © 440000 69 45000085000 a i Thf f m: -Seismograph vl Note that left-lateral ____..Station tmi | moraines are not deformed along Tegr aa 3 projection of mapped lineament mene Te 4 2 Qs 8 48 2 t So a wv poe Nini nah a . 430000 6990000 435000 440000 6985000 445000 Notes:1.See Figures A0.2,A0.3,A0.4,and AO.5 for explanation.DRAFT 2.Data frame has been rotated 30°west of north.SID OF ALAGK SIE VEN EST TOURE 3.Geologic map by Reger et al.,1990 (top)and by err ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY LINEAMENT GROUP 22 Wilson et al.,1998 (bottom)Le :A22.1 pate_10/18/13 /=ALASKA@@-ENERGY AUTHORITY MAP DATA 2189_LineamentReportOctober2013,modified10.18.1379218900AlaskaA) C) View looking north-northeast up the Deadman Creek valley.Note the numerous downhill-facing solifluction scarps.Large arrows point along mapped lineaments. oonaon g4 i "er Ser cow . Hy Smear Ted a i oe *ie Ieeeson.es °a0 .ooneeeeaoeioeaoe7 A y _7,FN ©7 Lag eee hs Fae rte uf'ee): View looking north at deep drainages whose margins coincide with nivation terraces and hollows.The large size of these drainages is inconsistent with the weakly expressed lineaments located east of Deadman Creek.Such deeply incised drainages are interpreted to be a result of sub-ice erosion. B) 63.04638 Lon=- View looking north-northwest up-valley along the margin of the left-lateral moraine and kame terrace complex.No lineaments were observed cutting these deposits. >ed ae = ¥- 2 =- »"Slareneeeeeaa-eo IESEweaahae"us .eet'Yeenl.ANQHEL :.ew .is -™-am a -ty° ;- a we .aa a gf.call ae : :aoc”-ere . :-a)™ ->- . s a ne .. ” * . "": -a 2 *j - i -"'Loe «ot ” -be Me ome ioe©-a a Ne --y ay a,7 Ne,Py te b * . °.o « t are oy tM ee4es'2 an .pos we oe ee St Te De¢'."fe fk -3 4 cb w Tote '-.>-er eee ..en Tne ..4 »a ,27m oa”we 35 gee *.4 ef °-.ret ers PRRa°we a see aa weer lot q:.'. a ae pe r és 7a Qh Hog - a nar .a,cre 1”3;._?woe ect ley 2 1 oT, moe oa .Ri..oo .aeoTingshee.Soa we emo ve foe me ete a5OGFaser-..an 4 L Re *oa View looking northeast at area of solifluction and termination of mapped lineament. DRAFT -sro ALASKA ENI=RGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT FIGURE Pena /=-A PHOTOGRAPHSpate10/18/13 @&-ENERGY AUTHORITY portOctober2013,modified10.18.13/2189_LineamentRe79_218900_Alaski485000 6945000 490000 4800006945000480000495000 6940000 500000 v I Fy ,x é ™",y <7 ie a RulNeAS%.wo \aa'3 i ae ake &2.Ve=,%i ye&eo 2 Oo 8 oO SI wo 8 2 ive] & 485000 490000 6935000 495000 "*--T T 7 Qo ysOo 3 3 ae Elevation from InSAR,2010eLe2{:(meters)2©f i}!poo:. 843 8 F 634 =.nN ©wt Tt \y roa \ i. \27 a v \"2 :.1 mi ." L es i be L a hy om 480000 6940000 485000 490000 6935000 495000 DRAFTNotes:1.See Figures A0.2,A0.3,A0.4,and AO.5 for explanation.2.Data fame has been rotated 25°west of north.'foore STATE OF ALASKA SUSITNA-WATANA HYOROELECTRIC PROJECT FIGURE ':ATT nd Gall ; ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY3.Geologic map in top panel by Williams a oway,1986 :LINEAMENT GROUP 23 A234 pate 10/18/13 /=ALASKA@@-_-_ENERGY AUTHORITY MAP DATA 415000 6975000 2 rgBL.ky ' -2 er ee ravt:.oy >; tos=fre.a nr'tC ; : , wna s }Seis;#,_'ig 1 eee eeAaeta .,>, t 7 ',ya a,ef. g-... .soytfjLo:if L 100 TT LE 425000 oo 'Me eT a ee_gyi Be g ky me / WiRS f asWe |;iware g .\3 * wmis) Ly < ie|,ae 6975000 79_218900_Alaska_|189_LineamentReportOctober2013,modified10.18.139 \yethtEAaToor 5 .\pn Lt 6975000 410000 Notes:1.See Figures A0.2,A0.3,A0.4,and AQ.5 for explanation. . 2.Data frame has been rotated 55°west of north.ALASKA ENERGY AUTH ORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT FIGURE 3.Geology by Wilson et al.,2009.=>ALASKA LINEAMENT GROUP 26 A26.1 .{=MAP DATA , @-ENERGY AUTHORITY 2189_LineamentReportOctober2013,modified10.18.1379218900Alaska.A) .oat HyanOeRee Dot FN eaten.4 wo ca Lge thoes28:ta>feView looking southeast at esker landform that projects across mapped lineaments and appears undeformed or offset. till apparently overlies lake sediments and fluvial washout gravel.The lenticular beds in the fluvial gravel appear horizontal but are not laterally extensive. B) D) tes"ef X a ,'1 -Pr ren+4 Aea ee aerile View looking northwest at layered bedrock (on left)with apparently undisrupted horizontally-bedded till (on right). '::. ow."rf ae!"mc Kal alae "te 2 habe Wok Close up view of exposure shown in Photograph (B).Note the apparently sub- horizontal basal contact between overlying till and underlying lacustrine deposits. Note sediments on the left of the image are influenced by landslide processes and not in-place locally. pate 10/18/13 @=-ENERGY AUTHORITY DRAFT fesr2 ALASKA ENIERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT FIGURE =3 C <a)ALASKA LINEAMENT GROUP 26 A2620/18/13 =<PHOTOGRAPHS /2189_LineamentRe;79_218900_AlaskaportOctober2013,modified10.18.134550004550006910000 455000 460000 6915000 465000 470000 6920000 T T ?"Shem T v T wv *T :T C4 _7, .=*.'%*a?¢* "ey " « ' i * -vr _*-!6920000enshetnaOs;"Ve, 70-km radius Aikiti a f 4,a = Elevation from INSAR 2010 (m)1723 475000894 <ames wt)--/69150006905000 460000 __470000 i 475000 6920000475000att nm 69150006905000 460000 Notes:1.See Figures A0.2,A0.3,A0.4,and AO.5 for explanation. 2.Data frame has been rotated 30°east of north. 3.Geologic map by Williams and Galloway,1986 (top)and by Wilson et al.,2009 (bottom). 465000 6910000 470000 1 475000 Pene oate_10/18/13 STATE OF ALASKA ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY /EALASKA@=__-ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT LINEAMENT GROUP 27 MAP DATA 470000189_LineamentReportOctober2013,modified10.18.1379_218900_Alaska470000 6920000 475000 480000 485000 J”.wv Lik ff ff -Elevation from on INSAR 2010 (m) aa ; . 1289 -810 4900006925000we i :-od ga!wo”2 Ll li L fod fe L 475000 6915000 485000 490000 _69 1 Jtk7 a 9 - 5 38 z . .-- i \{ut 2 475000 6915000 485000 490000 Notes:1.See Figures A0.2,A0.3,A0.4,and AO.5 for explanation.DRAFT 2.Data frame has been rotated 30°east of north. ceo STATE OF ALASKA SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT FIGURE i illi ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY*by Wilgon etal.2009 (bottom)Satioway.ne (oP ane r =ALASKA LINEAMENT GROUP 27 A27-2.1yWilso4ie).«_MAP DATAvate_10/18/13 @=->ENERGY AUTHORITY 189LineamentReportOctober2013,modified10.18.13485000 6930000 490000 495000 6935000 T "*T en f WA |3 ,:ve jee Te :on 1 my \Nee .cae 7 ye . >of a”\|, co . Ls . \ -'".Elevation from a, oOo INSAR 2010 (m)_neae ae 962 al485000 z ral -505000692500069350006925000 495000 500000 6930000 |----4850006925000505000 rs ram Vv o/oSF:3 v Gi 43 VA f- eS=« eg&" _.al oO é ad (><N Mw pow |eié af é : ie eee ee ee ,.g N ee NOs 43 ,|o |é 8 \Le Ww if © _- " '"ee . ®&ee ne af e a 0 1 km Ae é {il 2 we c I q : | |J:/0 1 mi f 1 !"|!1 490000 6925000 495000 500000 6930000 505000 79_218900_Alaska_'Notes:1.See Figures A0.2,A0.3,A0.4,and AO.5 for explanation. 2.Data frame has been rotated 30°east of north. 3.Geologic map by Williams and Galloway,1986 (top)and by Wilson et al.,2009 (bottom). DRAFT Te pate_10/18/13 STATE OF ALASKA ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY =ALASKA=ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT LINEAMENT GROUP 27 MAP DATA FIGURE A27-3.1 79_218900_Alaska2189LineamentReportOctober2013.modified10.18.13B) Pree eres Ta enero aes oe _ P an ecm ti =ws 7 -vee _* el -| pe cage ae. on S - 7 aan ee { r :7 } er ttre gee :7 il eC aon i "oe oa .ernie ermine - im wee fe” i .ote - . .iio Js a 7 >seh,Ps ; ;oe et ay agSealeiwee: :HEMP RS -7/12/2013 9:59:54 AM (-8.0 hrs)L 94 AK=3920ftM View looking west-southwest toward linear alignment of lakes.Arrows point along Close up view looking west-southwest along linear alignment of lakes in Photograph A. lineament.Note kettle lake terrain in the foreground.Arrows point along lineament. Fete Ray eGeeeeWYaestheeS ty Awg TE MS iees dey Sage! View looking south across strong vegetation lineament associated with a 2-meter-high View looking northeast along south side of vegetation lineament and 2-meter-high linear ridge.Note that topographic expression of ridge abruptly dies out and does not linear ridge shown in Photograph C.Positive feedback of vegetation growth and organic continue to the west.matter accumulation on the linear ridge may accentuate the apparent relief of the ridge.DRAFT -cro ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT FIGURE A27-3.2AeeeLINEAMENTGROUP27=:c_aaad {=ALASKA PHOTOGRAPHSvate_10/18/13 @=--_ENERGY AUTHORITY 2189LineamentReportOctober2013,modified10.18.1379218900Alaskamn <4AoSeidlaees View looking north at location where mapped fault would traverse across Quaternary sediments. a ef pans DS enngres resPiet Fork Chulitne ya oa acini re x a View looking west at exposure along east bank of the West Fork Chulitna River demonstrating Quaternary till overlying Tertiary fluvial sediments. 7H 572013 12:00:39 PM (-8.0 hrs)Dir=N Lat=63,07953 Lon=-149.59654 Alt=1511ft MSL WGS1984 View looking north (upstream)along the West Fork Chulitna River valley at exposures described in text and photographs below. Close up view of exposure shown in Photograph C.Basal contact between overlying till and underlying fluvial deposits appears to be sub-horizontal. |JE ALASKAdate10/18/13 @@-ENERGY AUTHORITY PHOTOGRAPHS DRAFT STATE OF ALASKA SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT FIGURErerALASKAENERGYAUTHORITYBROADPASSAREAA-BP1 2189LineamentReportOctober2013,modified10.18.1379_218900_Alaska,+t eta agesO Sereencoresonaemae” View looking northeast at subhorizontal contact between till and Tertiary sediments. etaesRaiycA.bea View looking south at location where inferred fault would traverse east =f railroad tracks.Fault is mapped as juxtaposing Triassic and Cretaceous rocks outcropping in creek behind photograph.No evidence of faulting in Quaternary deposits. F) wae renee bdeBTDete4-,@ ] - bh ""*on ig”.e- . ee ar °°°"qmarekstTueeeasyeer :Pa eee AC.Bcf wey Lo ran 7 niase eens :Weiee MWh wT nv Jk{eal aad |bya "re oa"i ace iebseYe:hensoe aL ASbite View looking south along Quaternary surface directly south of river valley.Marshy Quaternary sediments show no evidence of deformation or offset. *sf'i aoedibbed,adi yae erves4.ieeenes: ga §qSaybe View looking west at creek exposure along projection of mapped fault that depicts Cretaceous/Tertiary juxtapostion.Undisturbed surfaces support absence of Quaternary faulting. ome 10/18/13 /=ALASKA@@=-_>ENERGY AUTHORITY PHOTOGRAPHS DRAFT STATE OF ALASKA SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT FIGUREPenALASKAENERGYAUTHORITYBROADPASSAREAA-BP.2 2189LineamentReportOctober2013.modified10.18.1379218900Alaska...ayTee i i eC So--on eee =aa .eo,ah ed i ttsstabage2sareneBhSadFNEAe¥ -wan SMve:irks we a my.JewTFerra Ob Daaniehatswswebu.os 'woe by.theeNar|y ae” oo .77 _:.eed Ne roe.ar2OFEN ane ao 'lB %Eastern bubble]marae ©a bY:ee kite :ASE View looking west at creek exposure shown in Photograph H,Figure A-BP.2,showing morphology of Quaternary deposits along strike. Le an Pred Peace along with the mapped fault projects.Undisturbed surfaces support absence of Quaternary faulting. DRAFT SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT BROAD PASS AREA STATE OF ALASKApeer"ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY ee PHOTOGRAPHS..|JE ALASKApate10/18/13__@&=-ENERGY AUTHORITY FIGURE A-BP.3 2189LineamentReportOctober2013.modified10.18.1379218900AlaskaA) PE recta oil am,” -'72"asat .Cceeeead y -J" ce Be ae oe "se *4 . b;.. ,* en "ate,.;yO ... emer 7/13/2013 12:02:17 PM (-8.0 hrs)Lat=63.12805 Lon=-147.13042 Alt=5099ft MSL WGS 1984 =-_ View looking northwest at mine site located along apparent rock type contrast and mapped fault.Arrows point along mapped fault. View looking northeast through the broad saddle at the head of the linear drainage shown in Photograph B.Note the absence of any tectonic geomorphic features. B)”- iRedroc o .'¢.-4 way *. ae .. foeio "oeT - . ...oe wy,° .».ion sos+wa a dellie'a ae "ONretae . yo . ”- {pens *edad sy3alacia®. cloterclicl :ie Ee ed Seasteetaeinenettees_** - ous . ee eae ae uo * : -a :¥,aa >;.oo 4 .4 cote Tat Oe Sete Qe aa'-aa -'1 e ae -. 'i ae wwe ON OT Pe NA,a>. os |:oa ee eee Pw +%. ee nae an ny3 ara 7 :gd otaor'¥oo we Aa Pay te Rw ee RA ':4%so oNME We fash yg ec5veia+on eae a anws ce";¢yes Ar ed car na ¥C "se *i Ni°e te NS oe”*a”wedq.-a *-"'r }o oe a &No eet cL .2 -i;ae 2 ',=smerny Ye ,.ae i My ORS ee CER See -Ci ne,z :,io eee a ire are a oeos>4%.are :oot 7)res ane ave ren ¢a 4 on .0 hrs)Lat=63.13207 Lon=-1 63 Alt=5215ft MSL WGS 1984 ---- View looking northeast along linear drainage mapped as a lineament by FCL that coincides with a mapped fault.Another FCL-mapped lineament lies at the subtle break-in-slope and may correspond to the ice limit elevation. eer9D)ea enaniel a ila =7 ro ;a 7 : : .t ™-?P atae*.eS le p&,tg -¥a .eo."es 3 .-Tost a]rar,ca wey an 7 Ss %,.&me .: vos ae sa RR ae -*aon ye *a, . %J >-"f2a ”°-ey -a .ae >|4 2 : *Ce meg, .# i ”-_can ;a . F mo - ' - -\. F -y r x. r . +wihtwe matey §Ay be aMeeSoS .ee OF é ate 7 Se™ «+.te §wy .- os { --- -7/13/2013 12:06:21 PM (-8.0 hrs)Lat=63.13327 Lon=-147.15043 Alt=4689ft MSL WGS 1984 View looking northwest at location of FCL-mapped lineaments and mining roads partly shown in Photograph C.Note that FCL-mapped lineaments on the sidehill are not readily apparent and correspond to subtle break-in-slope like that shown in Photograph B.DRAFT Date GRO 5 .8Ea+ a aESoar| 10/18/13 STATE OF ALASKA ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY /=ALASKA=ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT CLEARWATER MOUNTAINS AREA PHOTOGRAPHS FIGURE A-CWM.1 2189LineamentReportOctober2013,modified10.18.1379218900AlaskaE) View looking southwest at 'several rock type contrasts (shown by arrows)that coincide with previously mapped faults. versa"7/13/2013 12:18:01 PM (-8.0 hrs)Lat=63.17161 Lon=-147.20097 Alt=5271ft MSL WGS 1984 ==> View looking southwest across an FCL-mappped lineament that corresponds to the trace of mapped Black Creek fault marked by a rock contrast.Note that no expression of faulting exists along trend in the glacial sediments of the valley floor. +uae in we PE ne ast ySe View looking south-southwest up glaciated valley that shows no expression of the mapped Black Creek fault thatis present in adjacent bedrock ridges. hi Wi eee Fault continues westoNAaaJ"a through these saddles View looking west along the Black Creek fault.Note the obvious rock type contrast across the fault.Aerial reconnaissance confirmed the presence of the faultin bedrock ridges to the west and the lack of expression in glacial!sediments in adjacent valley bottoms. Date DRAFT foore ALASKA ENTE SGY AUTHORITY cLeARWarere HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT FIGURE ae:ALASKA ER MOUNTAINS AREA A-CWM.2 10/18/13 f=@=-_ENERGY AUTHORITY PHOTOGRAPHS 79218900_AlaskaMeePAHKea4wrkKame terrace and kame terraces.The lineaments are interrupted by an alluvial fan and esker complex.Large arrows point along the mapped lineaments.2189LineamentReportOctober2013,modified10.18.13Close-up view looking west along FCL-mapped lineaments. n soem .EF Te See,ee eeeEOFakSree CrowpreaTCTILELEXPIEU EL len a Tpgenope.re ae or i a See: eetarsfws = uss " . ae - Le ee ae°ea.° ane =y mee °ads sae fran Close-up view looking east along FCL-mapped lineaments. pate __10/18/13 @&_!ENERGY AUTHORITY DRAFT cro ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT FIGUREar:<>CLEARWATER MOUNTAINS AREAsod=ALASKA PHOTOGRAPHS A-CWM.3 2189LineamentReportOctober2013,modified10.18.1379218900Alaska.C) er wtWOdigiaeedine -'Tole seeamet =cmt gin2- =*me eS=amore-,ee ''".mene'Es View looking southwest from location A,nearly along-strike with Csejtey et al.(1978) mapped faults.Note clear expression of linear features on bedrock landscape and absence of linear expression in Quaternary deposits. Outcrop with:SB vertical beddir SonesByDosBa,ara ci View looking southwest from location C trace of fault. B) Location of Location of Photograph A Photograph C <rae a _-nN OT a . : , .bed a -ee ve= .:Pct ete loysoeeeEeeeoytreet ; :are ar oe -*.Aton ey"2 wy rng San infmetoysJoarenLohor,ie wr,B epes -5 View looking northeast from location B nearly along-strike with Csejtey et al.(1978) mapped fault.The mapped fault segment projects through the vertical beds observed in the outcrop towards photograph location C.Note apparent undeformed hillslope and Quaternary deposits over projected trace of fault..Lattecoon;wotrtTseView looking northeast from location D along-strike with a Csejtey et al.(1978) mapped fault.A wide zone of deformation is expressed as vertical bedding exposed in outcrops.Note alignment of the break-in-slope on ridge crest,linear drainage,and the deformation zone. PHOTOGRAPHS/E ALASKADate__10/18/13_@E-ENERGY AUTHORITY DRAFT cro ALA SKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT FIGURE oy}CASTLE MOUNTAIN EXTENSIONAREA |4 onic 4 79218900_Alaska2489LineamentReportOctober2013,modified10,18.13?at foBeeESatge29722720121:41- View looking northwest from location E at faulted Jurassic units.The fault occupies the linear valley then climbs the hill-slope where it correlates with a clear break-in-slope on the ridge crest. sic bedrock and coincides with a break-in-slope on each ridge crest. PHOTOGRAPHS DRAFT ero ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY CASTLE MOUNTAIN EXTENSION FIGURE /=ALASKA TENSIONAREA |oyeDate|ENERGY AUTHORITY -Z-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY ;AEA11-022SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO 46-1404-TM-012014 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. Appendix B: Strip Maps and Photographic Documentation of Lineament Data for Lineaments Mapped by Reger et al.(1990) portOctober2013,modified12.19.132189_LineamentRe|79_218900_Alaska_148°30'0"W 148°20'0"W 148°10'0"W 148°0'0"W ::id .va 7 Explanation Feature Appendix B gee ee s ep e ie Number Figure NumberwatiraeASCECTerlsSREBSrcFeatureIDberintouRegederajsAREESita@1B-02 2 files Sarees)Seen oe --- --=GPS track 2 B-03 :.mY B-04 No previously mapped fault or B-05 3 4 lineament coincides with 5 B-05 lineament group 6 B-06 7 B-07a,B-07b 8 9 Features (Reger et al.,1990)B-07a,B-07b ssxssue:Photo lineament B-08 10 B-09a,B-09b ss==="*Fault (dashed where inferred)11 B-10 ete 12 B-10 Pars,k 13 B-11a a)poo ae 14 B-11a Dat wed 15 B-11a,B-11bANAS16B-11a,B-11b 'ae .17 B-12a =76 18 B-12a,B-12b{fe )|F Zz 19 B-12a,B-12b 'lod,HES 20 B-12a,B-12b AeA IAS 21 B-13 COMM 4 ©22 B-14a,B-14b<a 23 B-14a,B-14b WES 24 B-15 );S 25 B-15 NUS 26 B-16 NorseML Op 27 B-16 SEIN FH 28 B-17 : =ih fas >?P-4 ff i i pe dee iis Peed 5maSHS7Sy'Ra 4=adie ere:Talkeetnatse<; of y,Uadseenes tae i)'SS '\&a NS S ay QV y E fre SS Ate,Ras)In oD Se y aan we ..eg ee .1 SZ |co z 0 20 mi : wey Avr re 5 oe --wt LE Sa as =).LU?&en.IO Nt eer ww rq 62 0 20 kmiEMRAPIAEZ, bd ARES a i STATE OF ALASKA SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT FIGURE£Sra ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY LINEAMENTSa3La) ecienia <-_ALASKA REGER ETAL.(1990)B-01 bate 12/19/13 >ENERGY AUTHORITY View looking northeast from location A.Arrows show location of mapped trace of lineament.4189_LineamentReportOctober2013,modified10.18.132CS a a, View looking southwest from locat lineament.Note the semi-linear and lobate toe of talus deposit. EGAN IS aEfan2ee 72.WET aa vat.LeUoS ion B.Arrows show the location of DRAFT 79_218900_AlaskaSTATE OF ALASKA ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY /EALASKA@=--ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYORCELECTRIC PROJECT FEATURE 1 LINEAMENTS ANALYSIS REGER ETAL.(1990) FIGURE B-02 2189LineamentReportOctober2013,modified10.10.1379218900Alaska_View looking northwest from location A.Arrows and brackets show projected trace of lineament. Note absence of continuous lineament across projected trace. B)__a©OE ae Bf pe EO ee Lee ee eerenth ins. -Son Se,ie oa,oreme, ode = erminsaeeesBaturecae 0.25 05 mi View looking southeast from location B.Arrows and brackets show projected trace of lineament.|Peay trp |Note lack of deformation or lineament trace in foreground within Quaternary deposits.Og Osten DRAFT pose ALASKAENERGY AUTHORITY ee EATURE 2 eeiwi|FEAASIA |tnecernctinss * oe/=D:ne .f. ®)ers rs " ee ee :",ee ;a L *-Oa a. pte 7 é 5 rae % a eo Me /@)é >> 'pe -Fiped '&a Ti, 2 ey View looking northwest from location A.Arrows show the projected trace of lineament.Note absence of lineament or deformation in Quaternary deposits. ra 52 t B)- :B '¥ ;i j ern won aac i 7 ; 7 i qo Eatfsmmifq7Hé,we Ms .iota al PT core mimitnene m3 i=3 72189LineamentReportOctober201,modified10.18.1379218900AlaskaView looking southeast from location B.Arrows show the projected trace of lineament.Note absence of lineament or deformation in Quaternary deposits. DRAFT ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY FEATURE 3ed/=ALASKA LINEAMENTS ANALYSIS B-04bate10/1 8/1 3 @->ENERGY AUTHORITY REGER ETAL.(1990) cro STATE OF ALASKA SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT FIGURE id mL a|8 79218900_Alaska1489LineamentReportOctober2013.modified10.18.13OLEDSSEoesww,ote iifae 3SEMISSane View looking southeast from location A.Arrows show the projected traces of Features 4 and 5.Note absence of lineament or deformation in Quaternary deposits in foreground. 7 'got. re +FBaewteneetSueAkalOeSOUSEee oe phes -View looking northwest from location B.Arrows show the projected trace of Feature 5.Note absence of discernable lineament along mapped trace. DRAFT 0 0.25 0.5 mi ||L |cro STATE OF ALASKA SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT FIGURE J ]TT 4 ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY FEATURES 4AND 5 0 0.25 0.5 km {=ALASKA LINEAMENTS ANALYSIS B-05Date"10/18/13 _-_-ENERGY AUTHORITY REGER ETAL.(1990) 2189LineamentReportOctober2013,modified10.18.13View looking northwest from location A. Arrows and brackets show the projected trace of mapped lineament.Note absence of lineament or deformation in Quaternary deposits. View looking northwest from location B. Arrows show the projected trace of lineament. View looking west from location C.Brackets indicate the projected trace of lineament. Note absence of lineament or deformation in Quaternary deposits.79218900AlaskaDRAFT STATE OF ALASKA SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT FIGUREALASKAENERGYAUTHORITYFEATURE6 e__-|A K A LINEAMENTS ANALYSIS B-06=ALASKA REGER ETAL.(1990) 79218900Alaske/2189_LineamentReportOctober2013,modified10.18.13linear series of unrelated features. DRAFT STATE OF ALASKA SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT FIGUREereALASKAENERGYAUTHORITYFEATURES7AND8Bad{=ALASKA LINEAMENTS ANALYSIS B-07a pate 10/18/13 =ENERGY AUTHORITY REGER ETAL.(1990) '2189LineamentReportOctober2013,modified10.18.1379218900.AlaskaC) View looking southwest at lineaments 7 and 8 from photograph location C. D) =7/18/2013 5:07:28 PM (8.0 hrs)Dir=NE Lat=63.$5043 Lon=-148.28834 Alt=3812ft TREES TE= View looking northeast at lineament 7 from photograph location D. Date REGER ETAL.(1990) DRAFT STATE OF ALASKA SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT FIGUREPensALASKAENERGYAUTHORITYFEATURES7AND8f==ALASKA LINEAMENTS ANALYSIS B-07b"40/1813 @@--ENERGY AUTHORITY 79218900_Alaskz/2189LineamentReportOctober2013,modified10.18.13A)ao oe -E> v. : _we ° ™ ppt repay SE ene eeearerr:Te VERS -OF% °io eeey rar ws hen en liebeadeathsJ Deore TS POOR Aare View looking north from location A.Arrows show projected trace of Feature 9 lineament.Note lineament is overprinted with Quaternary alluvial fan deposit. DRAFT 0 0.5 1 mi STATE OF ALASKA SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT FIGUREL,L |I :,i |juere ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY FEATURE 9 0 408A km been =ALASKA LINEAMENTS ANALYSIS B-08 vate _10/18/13 @=-ENERGY AUTHORITY REGER ET AL.(1990) 79_218900_Alaske12189LineamentReportOctober2013,modified10.18.13f 4 - bk fr nn. kK a ke all ».iF he. oh = g Paar -.'- . .rt,re nr -* .a as elu g cay ae - .corer nae "af °les : . a ee eA ee ee ae CE ee es nai View looking north from location A.Arrows and brackets show the projected trace of lineament. DRAFT 0 0.5 1 mi trip fem,[agian |"ines=7 =»i =_0 05 tkm Load =ALASKA LINEAMENTS ANALYSIS B-09apate10/18/13 _{=ALASKA REGER ETAL.(1990) {2189LineamentReportOctober2013,modified10.18.1379.218900_Alaskzprojected trace of lineament.In Qd3 (till)the lineament is coincident with linear drainage in till deposit.Note absence of lineament in Qa deposit. D) 8 aN ,X .», -'- ?sow - *7 wen DU. *2 "ny,;he e 4 .=>a aoe ;"0:wed cpp pitty nies Tt le neReOOGOREMGEWVSS-B49 'dee i View looking south from photograph location C.Arrows show the projected trace of lineament. Note lineament is coincident with a linear drainage in this view. -od =wn es ; SR ogoae,alt q wae.1 fo -oe ae ..mo she,wort ..aAM€S.8)mit mg ee EY,PPX EASUESS sek See View looking south from location C.Brackets show the projected trace of lineament. DRAFT STATE OF ALASKA SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT FIGUREoroALASKAENERGYAUTHORITYFEATURE10band{=ALASKA LINEAMENTS ANALYSIS B-09b pate 10/18/13 @=->ENERGY AUTHORITY REGER ETAL.(1990) 12189LineamentReportOctober2013,modified10.18.1379218900_Alaskeseme Bye\ A)Lineament not observed in Quaternary talus deposit SoaAbtea7goFSeBRE PtyBeLyView looking west from location A.Brackets show projected trace of Feature 12 lineament.Note the trace of the lineament is a collection of unrelated features rather than a through-going feature. Date DRAFT STATE OF ALASKA SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT FIGUREpeor.ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY FEATURES 11 AND 12oe=>ALASKA LINEAMENTS ANALYSIS B-10 10/18/13 /@&-_ENERGY AUTHORITY REGER ET AL.(1990) 1189LineamentReportOctober2013.modified10.18.1379218900AlaskaView looking north-northwest from location A.The bracket indicates the projected path of Feature 13 fault.Arrows show the projected trace of Feature 14 lineament.Note absence of evidence of fault under bracket in Quaternary deposits. Feature 15 fault.Note absence of evidence of fault under bracket in Quaternary deposits. DRAFT cra ALASKA ENE RGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT FIGURE ao 4 FEATURES 13,14,15 AND 16a/=ALASKA LINEAMENTS ANALYSIS B-t1a pate 10/18/13 _@=-ENERGY AUTHORITY REGER ETAL.(1990) 79218900Alaska2189LineamentReportOctober2013,modified10.18.13C) aE eh ea:ieaweope eet OT he projected path of Feature 15 and 16 faults.Note absence of linear expression in valley floor within Quaternary deposits. DRAFT cfasea ALASKA ENIE REY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT FIGURE "*FEATURE 13,14,15,AND 16 ecnaad =ALASKA LINEAMENTS ANALYSIS B-11b pate _10/18/13_=>ENERGY AUTHORITY REGER ETAL.(1990) /2189LineamentReportOctober2013,modified10.18.1379218900Alaskaaaon Quwy yy = UnlabeledQuaternary A) B) 4 on - at ert ees eq % -no USDt lineaments Pay ..RS - .A sil ce eee OoaPe).QP ear"at ad . ¥ iodine i "- . [=sey oe 'wn oe a 2 aeSon ete apneF.wa °>nr.. xpoeTTagposie.an aReaoa4B. aren'a s 5 .+.ARoa:-Ltt - lt . =e * . aa es*co »-a? = .. _-a ' if were a k tes .ke -45é*. b pe ey ? Py od 'a oo * nr . - a ee eet +te Pele>. "oeasee.7 eM UF _we Loaf wee we ok wo °oF $a - . _Ey * ..km es :poo.ie .on -..?* ae -. 4 Se amenTi a peu nee cy alo cece re ay! os MEERA DLCAATicte WES ,"+°Ee:atte ae)te e fe BeMTUTIUSl<4 "wos Po Ne , } --2 Low. j - rier --eae.Pograte ,ee View looking southeast from photograph location B.Arrows and brackets indicated the projected trace of lineaments 18,19,and 20. DRAFT STATE OF ALASKA Gra ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYa[=ALASKApate10/18/13_@f-ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT FEATURES 17,18,19,AND 20 LINEAMENTS ANALYSIS REGER ETAL.(1990) FIGURE B-12a #2189LineamentReportOctober2013,modified10.18.1379218900_Alaski..View looking southwest from photograph location C.The arrows indicate the»projected path of Feature 19 lineament. :vy*wey ae are _-ns ge Loot 7 StOsetaefeyDirefee:Ae nities View looking northwest from photograph location E.Arrows show the mapped trace of Feature 20 lineament.Note mapped trace of Feature 20 is coincident with linear drainage. a"ays:we View looking northwest from photograph location D.Arrows show the mapped trace of Features 18 and 19.Note absence of lineaments or apparent deformation in Quaternary deposits between brackets in lower middle portion of photograph. Date DRAFT STATE OF ALASKA SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT FIGUREPereALASKAENERGYAUTHORITYFEATURES17,18.19.20ow=ALASKA LINEAMENTS ANALYSIS B-12b 40/18/13 l=@@ ENERGY AUTHORITY REGER ETAL.(1990) 79218900Alaska2189LineamentReportOctober2013.modified10.18.13TFFEHLUCS WOON of Feature 21 lineament. View looking northwest from photograph location A.Arrows indicate the projected path of Feature 21 lineament. View looking southeast from photograph location B.Arrows show the projected trace 0 0.5 1 mi Po |DRAFT i 0.5 }km sro ALASKA ENIE RGY AUTHORITY eee eATURE Ot PROJECT FIGURE *3a {=ALASKA LINEAMENTS ANALYSIS B-13 pate 10/18/13_=>ENERGY AUTHORITY REGER ETAL.(1990) 79218900_Alaski._._ .¥2189_LineamentReportOctober2013,modified10.18.13©at z +:geo we emblem o27°Ee”WF 12304 OTS +299 WPA :keow ToT,ee we ba Fone a ae a Fas ee AERsnahcintaaantisdaleeachSatan View looking west from photograph location A.Brackets show the projected trace of Feature 22. Note the absence of a continuous lineament along the projected trace and exposed till on low relief ridge crest between drainages. 2 View looking east from photograph location B.Arrows and Feature 22 lineament.Note change in apparent vertical displacement. DRAFT cra ALA SKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT FIGURE a "4 FEATURES 22 AND 23Sawand/=ALASKA LINEAMENTS ANALYSIS B-14a vate _10/18/13 =ENERGY AUTHORITY REGER ETAL.(1990) #2189LineamentReportOctober2013,modified10.18.1379218900_Alaskilineament.Note linear expression is coincident with solufluction lobes and not continuous. D) Pye tenet ee? a q " ees ote es .a : - we :.oa .ae *i be ge er aye -..Topographic Se bponareatee-oompaeetaaStaescarp_a ..of .*---2 TD oe 2a = fs oe tent ._*: * ne Sy :ia am a.an ons yt F ° , =a a ata ae vee TF ep oe 3 - 4 TO eee °OLDS,vs'*rn:ae wet me poo oF ot, ee wee re "ose.: q . - , ce § es .cs -oa cs *- -:Sener :ae . 5 _ View looking west from photograph location C.Arrows show the projected trace of the Feature 22 lineament.Note topographic scarp in Photograph D is not proportional to minor scarps associated with solufluction in Photograph C. DRAFT Peon.ALASKA ENIERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT FIGURE Se 3 FEATURES 22 AND 23beccad{=ALASKA LINEAMENTS ANALYSIS B-14b pate 10/18/13_=>ENERGY AUTHORITY REGER ETAL.(1990) 2189LineamentReportOctober2013,modified10.18.1379218900Alaska_View looking west from photograph location C.Arrows indicate the projected path of the Feature 24 lineament. View looking west from photograph location C.Arrows indicate the projected path of the Feature 295 lineament. DRAFT cro STATE OF ALASKA SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT FIGURE :4 ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY FEATURES 24 AND 25Ecad{=ALASKA LINEAMENTS ANALYSIS B-15 pate _10/18/13 @=-ENERGY AUTHORITY REGER ETAL.(1990) 79_218900_Alas2/2189LineamentReportOctober2013,modified10.18.13+. View looking west from photograph lo 4 - Apricant; aye O54 cation A.Arrows show the projected trace of Features 26 and 27.Note the absence of a continuous and clear lineament along projected traces. kad md ae onyTeDhaba 3 Rees |foooteetepasan2? &,+.r ;-4 ery é ; ."es,Le aSS.Van . SY ool Sats *we , CP aaewoeaedaeeSeegtaae+eR z » ar .PrIaT oe inl ByeapREAoPRee eedSULAsageoiSleleteSeatee>» Fy . View looking east from photograph location B.Arrows and brackets indicate the projected path of Feature 26 and 27 lineaments.Note the absence of a continuous and clear lineament along 0 05 1 mi projected traces.|re _DRAFT 0 08 ti peer.ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY "FEATURES26AND27.FIGURE ne /=ALASKA LINEAMENTS ANALYSIS B-16 pare 10/18/13 @=-ENERGY AUTHORITY REGER ETAL.(1990) 79218900AlaskaRailbelt/2189LineamentReportOctober2013,modified10.18.13-2a-mae ay aL ty .-:ot ve - A ”.ae nw er".Neots .a .a pum Apa Le hy s Spee,;2 wee eee esSFIO3/20AA LSSIOERAAEDWEF UnVSLBin 40892 EDPtnd Seas 5fySeirl View looking west-northwest from photograph location A.Arrows show mapped trace of Feature 28. Note lineament corresponds to subtle linear trough and linear vegetation trend. View looking east from photograph location B.Arrows indicate the mapped trace of Feature 28. Note absence of linear expression in Quaternary deposits. 0 ttt tty DRAFT 0 STATE OF ALASKA SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT FIGUREeeeALASKAENERGYAUTHORITYFEATURE28::<_bes eae Al A K A\LINEAMENTS ANALYSIS B-17 =3 «=pate 10/18/13 _/=<ALASKA REGER ETAL.(1990) a ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA11-022 SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO WORK IN PROGRESS Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. Appendix B4 PMF/PMP 14-02-REP_Probable Maximum Flood Study Susitna-Watana Hydroelectric Project Alaska Energy Authority FERC Project No.14241 July 2014 -z SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. Report 14-02-REP v1.0 Susitna-Watana Hydroelectric Project Probable Maximum Flood Study -FINAL DRAFT AEA11-022 ogee Prepared for:Prepared by: Alaska Energy Authority MWH 813 West Northern Lights Blvd.1835 South Bragaw St.,Suite 350 Anchorage,AK 99503 Anchorage,AK 99508 May 2014 l=ALASKA 13-1402-REP-031414 MBE ENERGY AUTHORITY THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK The following individuals have been directly responsible for the preparation,review and approval of this Report. Prepared by: John Haapala,P.E.,Senior Hydrologic/Hydraulic Engineer Reviewed by: Jill Gray,Senior Environmental Scientist Approved by: Howard Lee,P.E.,Sr.Technical Reviewer Approved by: Brian Sadden,P.E.,Project Manager Disclaimer This document was preparedfor the exclusive use ofAEA and MWH as part of the engineering studies for the Susitna-Watana Hydroelectric Project,FERC Project No.14241,and contains information from MWH which may be confidential or proprietary.Any unauthorized use of the information contained herein is strictly prohibited and MWH shall not be liable for any use outside the intended and approved purpose. THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK --Z-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. TABLE OF CONTENTS Table of Content.........csccsccsscsccsssssccsscssesessecssesecescsessscsesceseseesseesssecseeoseesssesssesssesesesssenssssssssesoeseonees i List Of Tables .........cccsscssccsssssscececcescesecessesscseecesecessesescescesseseaseosesesesseesssesneossensssssessseensassessessoeans iii List Of Figures ......c.ccesccsssssecsssecectsnsscsccesecessessscseececseseavsssessesssosses seseecesecececescasacseseacscecsesseceeneneeencess iv List of Appendices oc ceesscsssssssssssssssssssscessssssssssscessssssesescesesessesseasseeeeseanenseceseerenesaesessesteceeeneens Vii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ....ccccsscssscesecceseeesesercseceeecececnueusauansausueunuanausenuucsusnseceusuusoceusaeens 1 1.PROJECT DESCRIPTION .....ccscccsccnsescesereseccnecesersenseneconeecescoeeoeusausunseusaucntscaanes 1-1 1.1 Project Data......ccessssesessesencsssseresssrssssscsssssesssscssssessssssersscsessssesesesavsvsusensesessasenecessseaeussssessesesanases 1-1 1.2 Basin Hydrologic Data ...........:ccceeseeessceeeenceeteseeeseseeesesseesecueeceeeaasepeeeeseneeeeseeneesecerenesnreneneaes 1-1 1.3 Upstream Daim .......ceecceescesscceesceenneteseseneesnneseeeeeeeesenseseerteeesseeusnceesesedseaseseseasasseseseennensess 1-4 1.4 Field Visit .........c.ccccccscseessesseeceessececeeeeeseaeceesesenaeeeceesaaaeeeeetepenedeessepaaeeseeseeseeeesieettneniaetesneaees 1-4 1.5 Watershed Description ...........ceccesesceseessseseseneseseeseceaeeseeneeeeseeeseneneasaeceeaeseneenenseneeseneaseneneess 1-6 1.5.1 Watershed Area-Elevation Data ..............cc:ccccccceeeesnseeesesscaceeecessnanaeeeeeessasnenetenanenees 1-6 1.5.2 -Geology and Soils........ccceecceeceessneecesneeeseeeeeeneseeeaaseseseeseenensessseeeesssnseseneneesenesesegas 1-8 1.5.3 Land Use and Land Cover .......cccccscccesceseeeesececeneesaeersceseacerensesenesenaesensesnaeeeraeeneerens 1-10 1.6 Previous Studies .........cccccscesscecesessececerecaeaececeeenaneeceesanaeeeceseneaeeesseepessesesssesesseasensesseaeeaseegea 1-13 2.WATERSHED MODEL AND SUBDIVISION .,........:ccccesecccseeeeeeeneeensseenseneneenenees 2-1 - 21 Watershed Model Methodology .......c:cssessssscsssssesesesesesesssesesesesesesesesaeacsesesesesseenesscsesseeseseseates 2-1 2.2 Sub-Basin Definition ...............ccccsceccceeeececceeeeeeenieeeecesepeneeeeeersaneereneeeenesseeeceesusaseesaseeeaesenniges 2-2 2.3 Channel Routing Method .......0...ccc ceceesscccsessseeseeseeneeesensceeeeeeneeseeeeeneeeensesessessasessenesetaes 2-3 3.HISTORIC FLOOD RECORDS.......ccccssccesensecevesccascenenenecenercessaeevonnensecnessensonerons 3-1 3.1 Stream Gages .....ceceeeeeescesssessssessscsssnsseeessesenseessessneeensesenseranesesssenseeseeeesegnes bevueeveneessaseneeeenes 3-1 3.2 Historic FIOOdS.......c...c:eccsccceesseeceeetecsececetenseaeecettseneeecesteaeeeeeeteneeeeeeseesedssesaseseeeaeeesnseneassesenea 3-1 3.2.1 Flood Frequency..........cceeeccessecceseeeeesseeseseesesaeecsaeeseseeseseauseceneamsseeesnseeeuseseeneseagenens 3-3 3.2.2 Seasonal Flood Distribution..............ccssccceessseeeceececaeeeeeeeceeaeeeeseeseeuaaesesssasaeanenseetsenes 3-6 3.2.3 Volume Frequency Analysis........:ccccccseeceseeecsssecceesesteneesseraesseesessasessesseesineesees 3-9 3.2.4 Spring Breakup Timing Effects on Maximum Floods 1.0.0...cccccceeeeeteeeeeeneeteeeees..3-10 3.2.5 May -June 2013 Flood Analysis .......scssscsssssssesssssesssssessssssesesseseeesseess essuctscsaeseees 3-11 3.3 Precipitation Associated with Historic FIOOdS ...........ccecccsscsssessseseeeccerseeeseseeseesseeneeseeseeeaes 3-14 3.4 Snowpack and Snowmelt During Historic Floods.............seesneeneeneesseeseneeseeseesensneneesssnseatiss 3-14 4,UNIT HYDROGRAPH DEVELOPMENT......ccccsssceceseccsenssesaseenenscneneessansenanseaeaee 4-1 4.1 Approach and Tasks........cccceccceecsteeeneteeeneesstesseeeneenses eee eeceeeaeeenneeeedeseeeeseeeseneeseutssasentas 4-1 FINAL DRAFT Page i May 2014 -za-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. 4.2 Preliminary Estimates of Clark Parameters ...........ccccccssccessscesesseesceeneenecsanesseseaeeeseiseessaeeeesee 4-5 43 Estimate of Infiltration During Historic FlOOdS...0........ccceeesccscceceeeesseceeceeceeesseeanaceeessenaeeesenes 4-5 4.4 Summer Sub-Basin Unit Hydrograph Parameter .0............::ccccesesscensceceeeresseeceeceesesesneseneeensaes 4-5 4.5 Spring Sub-Basin Unit Hydrograph Parameters ..............:ccccesccceeesecceeeeeeeeeeseneeceseneeatsnseersnaes 4-11 5.UNIT HYDROGRAPH VERIFICATION wu...ccccceseeceeneceeeeeeessecensecesessassacsessonaeses 5-1 5.1 Summer FIOO........:..ccceceecsceeeescsecceeeeeceneaceseasececeneeeeseeacaecesecteaseeaaereeesessscneeeeseeseesseeeeeseanaeess 5-1 5.2 Spring FlOOd 200...ec ccec cesses cee ccsecseeesesesensseessseseeseeeeeseescsasseseasesaeesudeccasereneerseeernteenaeengs 5-4 6.PROBABLE MAXIMUM PRECIPITATION ......cccsccssecessessesesenssecceresesssssessensess 6-1 ) 6.1 Probable Maximum Precipitation Data ..............:c::cccsscccssccceesesnecesesseeessnseesseaseeeeeauesessaeeesenaees 6-1 6.2 Candidate Storms for the PMP...............::ccscesececseeeseneeceeeeeeseeeecessaeesaseneeesnseeeessaeetsenseeessatenses 6-8 LOSS RATES....eccccsscsscssccsnsceensenecenasescnssensnauercnneneeeeasenauseseueneaeeseaseeageuseesesanesenses 7-1 COINCIDENT HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL AND HYDROLOGICAL CONDITIONS FOR THE PROBABLE MAXIMUM FLOOD .........tee eseeeeeceeeeees 8-1 8.1 Reservoir Level ..sscssscscsscvssecssscsssscesscesessssssessveesessescessssseecessssuececsesssuesssceeesssvesseessseseeseseesse 8-1 8.1.1 Starting Reservoir Level .....c.ceeccscccesesesesesercssneeeesunesseeeesesaeecnseeeesseeeeeseeeetseees 8-1 8.1.2 Intermediate Flood Operation 0...ccceesessceseeessssseesesseeessasecsseeeessseeeeeesaeseesetereeaes 8-3 8.2 Baseflow......cccccsccsccssesscscesessesscseeecssnsenseseecsesecsscscseneeseecsensessecneesenssneacranseseseeteeeees seeeeneeeees 8-4 8.3 STOWDPACK 000...ceecesscccesesseneecesseaeceeenscceeeeesecsaecsesaeecssssenesssennaneesescesnnaneeeessueneeeesessuenseeesecesansaees 8-5 8.3.1 Available Historical Snowpack Data .........:.ccccsccssssstecsssseeesesecssnsseeenssecessusesssseseseace 8-5 8.3.2 Methodology Used to Determine the Estimated PMF Snowpack.............:.::ccsccseeeeees 8-7 8.3.3 Seasonal Precipitation ........cccscccscseeeeecseecssseseeneeeesesaeeseseusesesaeeeseaaeeseneseeseeaeestoaes 8-10 8.3.4 100-Year Snowpack Antecedent to the PMP ooo...cceccesessseneseeeessseeerenaeetseeeetseaee 8-12 ,8.3.5 Probable Maximum Snowpack .........c:ccecsccsccessnceeeeteeeseneesteetsesacecersessaaeeeeesssenaeesens 8-16 8.4 SNOWMEt.......ccccccscccseneeeceneececeeeesceecaeeensneseacesenaueesessansesseneessesdeesseeeeessaeenssaeseeseaseseseaseeaaas 8-18 8.5 100-Year Precipitation ............cescccccssssscccecsseeccseecessnscecsssseneeceessesssesesessssneeeseessseessseseeseanees 8-18 8.6 Freeboard.......ccccceeccescceccccenecenensceeensesceceauecaeeseseaeeeseeaeeeanessaneceaeseccensaaeeseeenaneseeecsateneetensees 8-19 9,PMF HYDROGRAPHS...ucccccscssssscctenecccnsensesceneescccnnensansssessceeseuenasencnsesensessannecnees 9-1 9.1 PMF Inflow and Outflow Hydrographs...............ccccecsscceeeeecceaeeeeeesscneeeeesesaaeeeeeeescsceeeenecenaneeess 9-1 9.2 Sensitivity Analysis ..csccssssssscscsssccscscccsesescsssssssssssseceeseesssesssesssssssstsssessstsstsessssstestttteveteveese 9-4 9.2.1 PME Case.u....eesceeeccecesscessseececsneeseseeeeenseesaccecsceceesaaeesnsaeesseaaeesseeesensaeeseueeeeseaaeeenes 9-4 9.2.2 Spring Flood Loss Rate ReanalySis ...........:cccsssccesecceceneeeeeeneceeesaeeteneeeesiaaeeeanettesenaees 9-5 9.2.3 Sun-on-Snow PMB .000.......ecceccceecesesecceceseseeeenseeeeesoessaaaeeesessssceeeeesacaneesesenaagereeesses 9-12 93 Selected PMF and Spillway Sizing ............cceecccsccceseeceseccesceeeeesenereneeeeseaneceaeeeesaceseesneeeneneees 9-17 9.4 Comparison with Previous PMF Studies ..........:c:csssssseeecessceeeeeesereeesseesseseseeceeeeseeseneesenerenas 9-19 9.4.1 SnOWDpaACK o.esescesseecsssecseseceecevscecevsuesacsesaesuesesueavaueasavsesvsevsnsavavessevavssneetsecatatsesaveves 9-19 FINAL DRAFT Page ii May 2014 --Z-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. 9.4.2 Probable Maximum Precipitation .............:.:ccccsccccceesesscceeeecessneceseeeensneeseneeeeseseneees 9-20 9.4.3 Temperature and Wind........cccccscessessesessecssssesssseeseesssessusssssecsecseeseesssusssssnesseseseeees 9-20 9.4.4 Probable Maximum FlOOd ...........:::ccessssceceseesennetecesessecnceeceecsnneeceeessseaseeeseeesesaneseees 9-22 10.REFERENCES1.0....cssscssscccsnscescnesseececscnecescccseccssessecccasesscuensesconsssessousasssenssensces 10-1 List of Tables Table 1.2-1.USGS Gages in the Susitna River Watershed .0.0.....ce eeessessseseseeeeeseseesetseeees 1-2 Table 1.5-1.Area in Elevation Bands to Watana Dam...etessecsssesseeeseseetesssenesseteeeseees 1-7 Table 1.5-2.Area in Elevation Bands to Gold Creek oo.eiceceessssesessseeseseseseeseactesesneeseees 1-8 Table 1.5-3.Watershed Minimum Infiltration Rates 0...cesssesessseessesssessesseseseseseesseeseseees 1-9 Table 1.5-4.Watershed Cover.............0ecteetnestnetnentneenetenetanetaestnasaestnesaseaseense 1-10 Table 1.5-5.Watershed Cover by Sub-Basin.ou...eeeeseseesseceereecseeesseassesesseseneneseeesseneees 1-11 Table 3.2-1.Recorded Peak Flows -Susitna River at Gold Creek -59 Years of ReCOT 0...eeesessssecesescscscneseecseacsesecescsesssssesssssesausususcessessscesssscsesesassssascesescsseceeceneseasecacseeeseeessteseeees 3-1 Table 3.2-2.Recorded Peak Flows -Susitna River at Cantwell -18 Years of Record .3-2 Table 3.2-3.Recorded Peak Flows -Susitna River near Denali -28 Years of Record.3-2 Table 3.2-4.Recorded Peak Flows -Maclaren River near Paxson -28 Years of ReCOL oo..eeseesscesesesesesesesseecscsssesccsscescsssesecusecesucsceessssscacssscscsseescecscecueusececacacscseseneaeseseseneesseseeeeeseeeesaes 3-3 Table 3.2-5.Peak Annual Flows in the Susitna River at Gold Creek...ececeeesseseseeeees 3-4 Table 3.2-6.Calculated Flood F requency for the Susitna River at Gold Creek...............3-5 Table 3.2-7.Estimated Peak Annual Flows in the Susitna River at Watana Dam...........3-6 Table 3.2-8.Maximum Daily Flows for Each Month at Gold Creek uo...ccececeesesseeeees 3-7 Table 3.2-9.Monthly Distribution of Annual Peak FIOWS ..0....ccecesesesseseseeseeetsestesesesneneneees 3-8 Table 3.2-10.3-Day Average Flows at USGS Gages and Watana Dam Site...3-9 Table 3.2-11.20-Day Average Flows and Peak FIOWSuuu...eesssesessesesesesseneseeseneseetssseaeenees 3-10 Table 3.2-12.Initiation of Spring Breakup during Historic Large Flood Years ............3-11 Table 3.4-1.Earliest and Latest Snowpack at SNOTEL Stations 00.0.0...cesseceeeeceseeeenes 3-15 Table 3.4-2.Antecedent Snowpack Snow Water Equivalent as a Percent of Average Oct-April Precipitation...csssessssessesessssssssssssessssssscssessssssssessssesnssesessssessesssesssessasseersesseesene 3-16 Table 4.4-1.Clark Unit Hydrograph Parameters by Sub-Basin .........cccsscsscecseseeeseeeeeseees 4-10 FINAL DRAFT Page iii May 2014 Za ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 ,13-1402-REP-031414Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. Table 6.1-1.Mid-Month PMP Seasonality Ratios 0...cecssessesesssssesscssesessssscseseesssestensseees 6-1 Table 6.1-2.All Season PMP by Sub-Basin for Various Durations -August 1967 Temporal Distribution...eesececesssssesesssscsesscsescsescassessacaraeseesesscnessecesareesaeeeseeeseeeeeeses 6-2 Table 6.1-3.All Season PMP by Sub-Basin for Various Durations -August 1955 Temporal Distribution...cece ssesesscecseessenssssessesesssessssssessssseceenessneseesseenseeneasseeesaeeees 6-3 Table 6.1-4.All Season PMP by Sub-Basin for Various Durations -September 2012 Temporal Distribution...eseceesesessessssessssssssssessssecseseseesesesececssseseeseseaesecesteneensetess 6-4 Table 6.1-5.Air Temperature and Dew Point Seasonality Ratios...cece 6-7 Table 6.1-6.Wind Speed Seasonality Rati0s.......eesccsesesesessesssssesessssesesesssessesesssssessesesestenes 6-8 Table 8.3-1.Snow Course and SNOTEL Stations In or Near the Susitna Watershed ....8-6 Table 8.3-2.Monthly Average Precipitation by Month and Sub-Basin........0....cece 8-12 Table 8.3-3.100-Year Snowpack at Snow Course Stations ........cccsecsssesssssesseccssecssseees 8-13 Table 8.3-4.100-Year All-Season Snowpack Snow Water Equivalent...eee 8-15 Table 8.3-5.Probable Maximum Snowpack Snow Water Equivalent ..........ccccssseseeees 8-17 Table 8.6-1.Freeboard Parameter...eessssssseseceesessseeeeesscscseensesesscseeescusesseneaesessenssenees 8-20 Table 9.1-1.PMP Temporal Distribution Cases wi...ssesessessssesesesseseesssccesseeeeeseteneeeeneetenes 9-2 Table 9.1-2.PMF Seasonal Run Selection...eseseeseseseecceessesssesecteseasseseceseesestseseseenes 9-3 Table 9.1-3.PMF Routing Results at Watana Dam ou...eessscesessssesesesessssenesesesnsseetsneesneas 9-4 Table 9.2-1.PMF Routing Sensitivity Analysis Results...essesessscessececeseseseseesesesseens 9-5 Table 9.4-1.1982 Acres PMF Snowpack Snow Water Equivalent Estimate .........0.......9-19 Table 9.4-2.1984 Harza-Ebasco May PMF Estimate ..0......cssssssssssescsesesssestsesesessseesseees 9-20 Table 9.4-3.PMP Study Comparison ..0.....cccsesssssssecesseceseeseseseesseseeesesseassesseseseseseensseseseeesses 9-20 Table 9.4-4.PMF Inflow and Outflow Comparison .......ceeesseseseseecseeseesseecececeseeseensseneess 9-22 Table 9.4-5.Dam and Reservoir Elevation Compa rison..........ccccsssssesscessesesecesesteseseeeseeeens 9-23 List of Figures Figure 1.2-1.Susitna Watershed Boundary and USGS Gage Locations...eee:1-3 Figure 1.2-2.Susitna Watershed USGS Flow Data -Chronological Availability ..........1-4 Figure 1.4-1.Susitna River near Deadman Creek on May 29,2013 .....sescssssecsesnteeee 1-5 Figure 1.4-2.Susitna River near the Denali Highway Crossing on May 29,2013...........1-5 FINAL DRAFT Page iv May 2014 Za ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. Figure 1.5-1.Susitna Watershed Sub-Basins and Elevation Bands...eeeeeeeeeeeeees 1-6 Figure 1.5-2.Susitna Watershed Land Cover -North Half...es eeeeeeseeneeeeee 1-12 Figure 1.5-3.Susitna Watershed Land Cover -South Half we eeeeeseseseceeteeeseeseees 1-12 Figure 2.2-1.Susitna Watershed Sub-Basins oe esssesessesesssesessesssseeseeesscseeseseeenseeenees 2-3 Figure 3.2-1.Log Pearson Type III Flood Frequency Plot for the Susitna River at - Gol Creek...eesesessssesesessecsesescsseesesesesestsncscsesesescueseacassescnsscssassescsesssesesseesesucusecaeuceseceeeseeseneees 3-5 Figure 3.2-2.Historic Flow Frequency at the USGS Gold Creek Gage .......eccseeeeeee 3-8 Figure 3.2-3.Susitna Watershed Glaciers...cesssessssesssssssssssessssesscsessssesseseescacsesssseeneecenees 3-9 Figure 3.2-4.April -June 2013 Flow and Temperature Departure from Normal.........3-12 Figure 3.2-5.April -June 2013 Flow and Temperatures 0...eeeesessesesececescesseceeeeeesees 3-13 Figure 3.2-6.April -June 2013 Flow and Precipitation oc eeeeseseseeeeeseesececeeeceeeees 3-13 Figure 4.1-1.June 1964 Recorded Flows at USGS Gages .0...ee eseesssececesesseeseseseeetseeseees 4-2 Figure 4.1-2.August 1967 Recorded Flows at USGS Gages..u..ec ceseseseeeseeseseeteneeees 4-2 Figure 4.1-3.June 1971 Recorded Flows at USGS Gages wo...eeceeseeseeeeeeeeeeseeneeeees 4-3 Figure 4.1-4.August 1971 Recorded Flows at USGS Gages...eesessesceceeeeeeeeeeseeeees 4-3 Figure 4.1-5.June 1972 Recorded Flows at USGS Gages oo...eseseeeeeeseeeeeeeaeeeseeeenenes 4-4 Figure 4.1-6.September 2012 Recorded Flows at USGS Gages oo...esssesseeessseeneeeenees 4-4 Figure 4.4-1.September 2012 Calibration,Susitna River near Denali...eens 4-6 Figure 4.4-2.September 2012 Calibration,Susitna River above Tsusena Creek ............4-7 Figure 4.4-3.September 2012 Calibration,Susitna River at Gold CreeK..ucccssscsssscsssenee 4-7 Figure 4.4-4.August 1967 Calibration,Maclaren River near Paxson .......cesssesseeeesseeees 4-8 Figure 4.4-5.August 1967 Calibration,Susitna River near Cantwell oes 4-9 Figure 4.4-6.August 1967 Calibration,Susitna River at Gold Creek sescscssssssesevensevnseenee 4-9 Figure 4.5-1.June 1971 Calibration,Susitna River near Denali...ee eseeeeseseeneeee 4-11 Figure 4.5-2.June 1971 Calibration,Maclaren River near Paxsonuuu...sesessesseseseeseeeeees 4-12 Figure 4.5-3.June 1971 Calibration,Susitna River near Cantwell...cesses 4-12 Figure 4.5-4.June 1971 Calibration,Susitna River at Gold Creek...4-13 Figure 4.5-5.June 1972 Calibration,Susitna River near Denali...eeseeeeeeeesens 4-14 Figure 4.5-6.June 1972 Calibration,Maclaren River near Paxson .....c.ccceseeeeeseesees 4-14 FINAL DRAFT Page v May 2014 Z ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1402-REP-031414 Figure 4.5-7.June 1972 Calibration,Susitna River near Cantwell...ecssesseseeeeeeee 4-15 Figure 4.5-8.June 1972 Calibration,Susitna River at Gold Creek .u...ecceceeseeseseeeees 4-15 Figure 5.1-1..August 1971 Verification,Susitna River near Denali...eeeeeeceeeeees 5-2 Figure 5.1-2.August 1971 Verification,Maclaren River near Paxson ........tesesesseseeeseees 5-2 Figure 5.1-3.August 1971 Verification,Susitna River near Cantwell...cesses 5-3 Figure 5.1-4.August 1971 Verification,Susitna River at Gold Creek...eee 5-3 Figure 5.2-1.June 1964 Verification,Susitna River near Denali...eeeeeeeeeeeeeeees 5-4 Figure 5.2-2.June 1964 Verification,Maclaren River near Paxson..........c.seceeeeeeeeeeeees 5-5 Figure 5.2-3.June 1964 Verification,Susitna River near Cantwell ......csesscseseeseseees 5-6 Figure 5.2-4.June 1964 Verification,Susitna River at Gold Creek oo.eeeeseeeeeeees 5-6 Figure 6.1-1.Incremental and Accumulated All Season PMP -August 1967. Temporal Distribution oo...esessesessssescnsesssesssssssssessesussssessssesnssesessesesucsesessccseceseteueeeeeteneens 6-5 Figure 6.1-2.Incremental and Accumulated All Season PMP -August 1955 . Temporal Distribution oc ssssssessssssesssscsesssscssssnssessesessecussesscsesnssecessssesesseeucasencneneeesenceeens 6-5 Figure 6.1-3.Incremental and Accumulated All Season PMP -September 2012 Temporal Distribution...cssessessessesssssseesessscsscesseasessnsssssseensesscaseesecseeseseeasseeets 6-6 Figure 6.1-4.Temperature and Wind Speed for Period of PMP Rainfall for Seasonality Ratios Of 1.00 wc esssesssssssssesscssssesesssssesessesusssssssecnssseecseeesssseeeseseesesseeaseeseseees 6-7 Figure 8.1-1.Reservoir Elevation Frequency -Maximum Load...essssseseseeeeeeesees 8-2 Figure 8.1-2.Reservoir Elevation Frequency -50%Load ....ee eceseeeseceeeesesteteseneseeseeteeeees 8-3 Figure 8.1-3.50-Year Flood Routing with 8 Fixed-Cone Valves...eeeeseeseeseteeeetenes 8-4 Figure 8.3-1.Location of Snow Courses and SNOTEL Stations...eeeseseeeeteseeeeteees 8-7 Figure 8.3-2.Average October through April Precipitation...ceessessesesesesteseseessee 8-11 Figure 9.2-1.June 1971 Reanalysis,Susitna River near Denali...eeeeeseeeeeeeeeeeeeeees 9-6 Figure 9.2-2.June 1971 Reanalysis,Maclaren River near PaxSO .........csseeseeeeseeeeeeees 9-7 Figure 9.2-3.June 1971 Reanalysis,Susitna River near Cantwell...9-7 Figure 9.2-4.June 1971 Reanalysis,Susitna River at Gold Creek...eeneeeeees 9-8 Figure 9.2-5.June 1972 Reanalysis,Susitna River near Denali...eee esesseseeseeneseees 9-8 Figure 9.2-6.June 1972 Reanalysis,Maclaren River near Paxson ......ccscssssssssseeeeenes 9-9 Figure 9.2-7.June 1972 Reanalysis,Susitna River near Cantwell...eeeeeeeeees 9-9 FINAL DRAFT Page vi May 2014 -yw .ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. Figure 9.2-8.June 1972 Reanalysis,Susitna River at Gold Creek...ccesessseseeeeeees 9-10 Figure 9.2-9.June 1964 Reanalysis,Susitna River near Denali...cesesesseseseeeetsseee 9-10 Figure 9.2-10.June 1964 Reanalysis,Maclaren River near Paxson.........ecsessesseeseseeees 9-11 Figure 9.2-11.June 1964 Reanalysis,Susitna River near Cantwell ........c ccc 9-11 Figure 9.2-12.June 194 Reanalysis,Susitna River at Gold Creek...ecccssseeseseeeeees 9-12 Figure 9.2-13.May-June 2013 Simulation,Susitna River near Denali...eee 9-14 Figure 9.2-14.May-June 2013 Simulation,Susitna River above Tsusena Creek..........9-15 Figure 9.2-15.May-June 2013 Simulation,Susitna River at Gold Creek ......eee 9-15 Figure 9.2-16.Sun-on-Snow PMF and Air Temperatures ...........cccssssscsessssesssesseesseessseses 9-17 Figure 9.3-1.Watana Dam PMF Inflow,Outflow,and Reservoir Elevation.................9-18 Figure 9.4-1.Temperature Comparison June PMP...cececsesecsssccesseceseeeeseseeeseesseeeees 9-21 Figure 9.4-2.Wind Speed Comparison -June PMP..0...ee essesececeseeseseceeeeseeessseeseneeeeeaees 9-22 List of Appendices Appendix A:Probable Maximum Precipitation Study,by Applied Weather Associates Appendix B:Intermediate Flood Routing Technical Memorandum FINAL DRAFT Page vii May 2014 Zz ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The purpose of the study was to develop the Watana Dam inflow design flood,which is the Probable Maximum Flood (PMF).The PMF is an industry standard design criterion that federal regulatory authorities apply to large dams like Watana Dam.The PMF is the largest flood that may be expected from the most severe combination of critical meteorological and hydrologic conditions that are reasonably possible in the drainage basin tributary to Watana Dam.The PMF results from the Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP),which was also developed as a part of this study,and other coincident conditions including snowmelt.The PMF inflow hydrograph was routed through the reservoir with the ultimate purpose of sizing the spillway and outlet works and providing information for selection at a later date of a dam crest level that ensures flood passage safety of the dam. Project Description ° The proposed Susitna-Watana Hydroelectric Project (Susitna-Watana Project or the Project), which is currently in the feasibility and licensing phase,will be a major development on the Susitna River some 120 miles north and east of Anchorage and about 140 miles south of Fairbanks.The Project is being developed to provide long-term stable power for generations of Alaskans.Once on line,the Project will be capable of generating about 50 percent of the Railbelt's electricity.The Project's installed power capacity will be 600 megawatts (MW).As proposed,the Susitna-Watana Project would include construction of a dam,reservoir, powerhouse,transmission lines connecting to the existing Railbelt transmission system,and a new access road.Feasibility studies have indicated that the Project appears to be technically feasible using a roller-compacted concrete (RCC)dam and surface powerhouse. Watershed Description The watershed is in a remote part of the Susitna River,with Watana Dam located 184 river miles (RM)upstream from Cook Inlet.The drainage area tributary to the Watana Dam site is about 5,180 square miles,which compares to about 20,000 square miles for the entire Susitna River watershed.The topography upstream from the proposed Watana Dam is mostly rugged,ranging from hilly to mountainous with glaciers.Although watershed elevations reach over 13,000 feet, almost 70%of the watershed tributary to the Watana Dam site is below 4,000 feet in elevation and 88%is below 5,000 feet.The predominant types of watershed cover include shrub/scrub, 45%;evergreen forest,17%;and barren land,15%.Glaciers and perennial snow cover about 5% of the area and open water and lakes account for about 3%of the area tributary to the Watana Dam site.Streamflow is highly seasonal with over 85%of the annual average flow occurring during the 5-month period of May through September., FINAL DRAFT Page ES-1 .May 2014 Za ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. Historic Floods In 60 years of record at the USGS gaging station downstream of the dam site at Gold Creek, which has a drainage area of 6,160 square miles,the peak recorded flow has been 90,700 cfs. The estimated 100-year peak flow at the Watana Dam site is 91,300 cfs.In the 134 station-years of flow data for USGS gages at or upstream from Gold Creek,100%of the annual peak flows have occurred during the months of May through September.Susitna River floods were found to be of two types,those in May or June that primarily result from snowmelt,and those in July, August or September that primarily result from rainfall. Hydrologic Model The HEC-1 Flood Hydrograph Package was chosen as the rainfall-runoff model to develop the PMF because it is one of the models recommended by Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC)specifically for this purpose,it includes the preferred energy budget method for snowmelt,and a wealth of experience data is available for this model.The watershed was divided into 29 sub-basins tributary to the Watana Dam site plus five additional sub-basins tributary to the USGS gage at Gold Creek that were necessary for model calibration.The area of each sub-basin in 1,000-foot elevation bands and the sub-basin area for each watershed cover type were determined from GIS data. Streamflow data for model calibration and verification were available at four relatively long-term Susitna River USGS gages at Gold Creek,Cantwell,and Denali,and on the tributary Maclaren River at Paxson.The recently established USGS gaging station above Tsusena Creek,near the Watana Dam site,also contributed data for one flood.Because Susitna River floods of two different types have been noted (primarily from spring snowmelt and primarily from summer rainfall),three spring floods and three summer floods were selected for runoff model calibration and verification.Preference was given to selecting floods of the greatest magnitude that had recorded data at the most USGS gaging stations that would also satisfy the spring/summer distribution.Although selecting a total of three floods for calibration and verification is more typical,the flood characteristics of the Susitna River and the magnitude of the Susitna-Watana Project provided justification for using six floods. Runoff model calibration challenges included a general lack of historical meteorological data (precipitation,temperature,wind)within the watershed tributary to the Watana Dam site and the lack of historical snowpack data concurrent with the spring floods.Given these limitations,the watershed model calibration was in all cases considered to be within the normal range of acceptable results. FINAL DRAFT Page ES-2 May 2014 -Z-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. Probable Maximum Precipitation Because the existing standard U.S.Weather Bureau (now National Weather Service)PMP guidance document for Alaska is applicable to drainage areas up to only 400 square miles and for durations up to only 24 hours,development of a site-specific PMP was necessary.Derivation of the site specific PMP is detailed in a separate report prepared by MWH sub-consultant Applied Weather Associates,which is included as Appendix A to this report.The site-specific all-season (maximum)PMP was found to occur in July or August and was derived on an hourly basis for a 216 hour (9 day)time sequence for each of the 29 sub-basins tributary to the Watana Dam site. Alternative temporal distributions for the PMP were evaluated.The critical basin-wide all- season average PMP values were 1.78 inches for 6 hours,4.40 inches for 24-hours,7.19 inches for 72 hours,and 10.00 inches for 216 hours.Associated concurrent meteorological data (temperature,wind speed,dew point)were also derived for the 216 hour PMP period plus 24 hours prior to and 72 hours subsequent to the PMP for a total of 312 hours.Because snowpack and snowmelt are significant hydrologic conditions in the Susitna River watershed that affect the estimated PMF,seasonal PMP 'and meteorological data were derived for the period from April through October based on different factors applied to the all-season data.The data sets for 'various seasonal time periods and sensitivity runs form cases from which the PMF can be determined. Snowpack Snowmelt is an important and potentially a controlling component of the PMF for Watana Dam. Snow course data (measured monthly during the winter)is available at several locations within the area tributary to Watana Dam,and SNOTEL data (measured daily)is available near the watershed boundaries and in nearby watersheds.This data was generally adequate for developing the necessary snow water equivalent values antecedent to the seasonal PMP sequences. Data analysis indicated that a snow water equivalent equal to 1.68 times the average October through April total precipitation would be appropriate for the 100-year spring snowpack. Detailed monthly average GIS-based precipitation data was used to develop the distribution of the snow within 1,000-foot elevation bands in each sub-basin.Based on a Weather Bureau study for the Yukon River,the probable maximum spring snowpack was estimated to yield a snow water equivalent equal to 3.0 times the average October through April total precipitation. FINAL DRAFT Page ES-3 May 2014 Zz ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. Coincident and Antecedent Conditions The primary coincident conditions to be evaluated are several cases formed by seasonal combinations of the 100-year snowpack and the PMP.Coincident seasonally varying temperatures and wind speeds are also important factors.The combination of the probable maximum snowpack and the 100-year precipitation is another case that was evaluated.Based on the historic near maximum Susitna River flood of May-June 2013 that occurred with little to no contributing rainfall,the Independent Board of Consultants suggested performing a sun-on-snow PMF case,which was included in the Sensitivity Analysis section of this report. For Watana Dam,initial reservoir level considerations include both the starting reservoir level at the beginning of the PMP sequence and the reservoir level at which the spillway gates begin to open.Low-level outlet works valves are assumed to be used to make reservoir releases until the peak 50-year flood reservoir level has been exceeded,in order to limit the frequency of spillway operation and the potential for downstream gas super-saturation in the Susitna River which might adversely affect fish.Potential variations in the initial reservoir level were evaluated with sensitivity runs. Probable Maximum Flood Hydrograph After evaluating all of the candidate cases for the PMF including alternative temporal,seasonal, and sensitivity runs,including the sun-on-snow PMF case,it was apparent that there is significant sensitivity in the results to infiltration loss rates,wind speed and temperature input data.Given the sensitivity in these parameters,the critical PMF case used for spillway sizing was found to be formed by a spring PMP combined with the 100-year snowpack and with conservative low loss rates.The conservative low loss rates were confirmed with reanalysis of the spring historic calibration and verification floods.For the critical PMF case,the maximum reservoir level was at El 2064.5 with a peak inflow of 310,000 cfs and a 13-day total inflow volume to the reservoir of 3,980,000 acre-feet. To safely pass the PMF with a maximum reservoir level below El 2065 with a spillway crest at El 2010,a spillway with a total width of 168 feet (4 gates each at 42 feet wide)was required. This spillway size is preliminary and subject to change pending further review of parameter sensitivity.Including a total outflow of 32,000 cfs through eight fixed-cone valves and a peak outflow of 250,000 cfs through the spillway,the total peak PMF outflow was estimated to be 282,000 cfs based on HEC-1 model results.A total of 14.5 feet above the maximum normal pool level at El 2050 is used for flood control storage with 7.6 feet allocated to the 50-year flood and an additional 6.9 feet allocated to safely pass the PMF.With the inclusion of a standard 3.5-foot high parapet wall on top of the dam crest,the required freeboard would be provided for both FINAL DRAFT Page ES-4 May 2014 SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Wy Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414 normal and flood conditions. reservoir elevation. Figure ES-1 is a plot of the PMF inflow,total outflow,and 400,000 2066 350,000 7 2064 -Inflow \300,000 -outfiow <J 2062 -Reservoir Elevation a250,000 X 2060 2 i= oO -|2sA$es 200,000 2058 ©to]WW *//NY s2 150,000 h Sw 2056 2/J : 100,000 2054 50,000 j 2052 C 0 2050 1-Jun 3Jun §-Jun 7-Jun 9-Jun 11-Jun 13-Jun Figure ES-1.PMF Inflow,Outflow,and Reservoir Elevation FINAL DRAFT Page ES-5 May 2014 --Z-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. 1.PROJECT DESCRIPTION The Susitna-Watana Hydroelectric Project (Susitna-Watana Project or the Project)will be a major development on the Susitna River some 120 miles north and east of Anchorage and about 140 miles south of Fairbanks.The Project is being developed to provide long-term stable power for generations of Alaskans and to help the State of Alaska meet the goal set by the State Legislature of getting 50%of its energy from renewable sources by 2025.It will generate about 50 percent of the Railbelt's electricity,or 2,800,000 megawatt hours (MWh)of annual energy. The Project's installed power capacity will be 600 megawatts (MW). As proposed,the Susitna-Watana Project would include construction of a dam,reservoir,and related facilities including a powerhouse and transmission lines.Watana Dam would be located in a remote part of the Susitna River,184 river miles (RM)from Cook Inlet,more than 80 RM beyond Talkeetna and 32 RM above Devils Canyon which acts as a natural impediment to salmon migration.Transmission lines connecting to the existing Railbelt transmission system and an access road would also be constructed. 1.1 Project Data As an unconstructed project currently in the feasibility phase of project design,all project data is preliminary and subject to change as the design progresses.As currently designed,Watana Dam will be a roller-compacted concrete (RCC)dam with an approximate height of 715 feet above its foundation and a normal maximum operating level (NMOL)at El 2050.At the NMOL,the reservoir area will be 23,500 acres (36.7 square miles)and the total reservoir storage capacity will be 5,170,000 acre-feet.Outlets at the dam would include (1)three turbines;(2)a gated spillway with three bays;(3)several fixed-cone valves;and (4)an emergency low-level outlet that is provided for use only in the event of a dam safety emergency.In accordance with standards of the industry for a dam if its size and economic importance to the Railbelt,the inflow design flood for Watana Dam is the Probable Maximum Flood (PMF).The determination of the design flood inflow hydrograph and the preliminary outlet capacity at the dam is the subject of this report.The results will inform sizing of the main spillway and,at a later date,the determination of the dam crest elevation. 1.2 Basin Hydrologic Data Fourteen gaging stations have been intermittently operated by the USGS in or near the Susitna River watershed between 1949 and 2013 as shown on Table 1.2-1.The locations of the four gaging stations located in the area tributary to or just downstream of Watana Dam,along with the watershed boundaries are shown on Figure 1.2-1.The four USGS gaging stations shown on FINAL DRAFT Page 1-1 May 2014 Ze ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. Figure 1.2-]are the ones used in the current study for calibration of the runoff model. Figure 1.2-2 shows the chronological availability of USGS flow data in the Susitna watershed. The USGS gage records provide an adequate flow record for calibration and verification of the flood runoff model. Table 1.2-1.USGS Gages in the Susitna River Watershed USGS Drainage Gage Gage Gage Name Area Latitude Longitude |Datum Available Period of Record Number (sq.mi)(feet) 15290000 |Little Susitna River near Palmer 62 61°42'37"149°13'47"917 1948 -2013 [15291000 |Susitna RivernearDenai |950 |ea°0e14"|147-2057 |2,440 |1957-1976;1978 -1986;2012 | 15291200 Maclaren River near Paxson 280 63°07'10"|146°31'45"|2,866 1958 -1986 15291500 |-Susitna River near Cantwell |4140 |62°41'56"|147°3242"|1,000 |1961-1972;1980-1986|15291700|Susitna River above Tsusena Creek|5,160 |62-4924"|1473617 |1500 ++2082|15292000|_SusitnaRiveratGold Creek |6,160 |62-4604"|s4crarze |677 |1949-1996,2001-201345292400|Chulitna River near Takeetna |2570 |62°3331"|1501402"|520 |1958-1972;1980-1986 ||15292700|TalkeetnaRivernearTalkeetna |1,996 |62-2049"|1500101 |400 |1964-1972:1980-2013|15292780 |SusitnaRiver at Sunshine |11,100 |621042"|1501030"|270 |1981-1986,2012-2013 15292800 ||Montana Creek near Montana |16a |620619"|150°0327 |250 |2005-2006;2008-2012 | 15294005 Willow Creek Near Willow 166 61°46'51"|149°53'04"350 1978 -1993;2001 -2013 |15294010|Deception CreeknearWitlow |48 |etraasz'|tagrsera"|250 [|1978-1985 35294100 |Deshka River near Witow |91 |e1°4e0s"|150°2073"|60 |1978-1986,1988-2001 |15204300 |Skwentna River near Skwentna |2.250 |615223"|15t-zz01"|200 |1959-1982 |15204345|Yentna River near Susitna Station |6,160 |e1arss:|1503002 |so |1980-198615294350|Susitna Riverat Susitna Station |19400 |613241|150°9045 |40 |1974-1993. FINAL DRAFT Page 1-2 May 2014 Zz ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. 4 ed ooMer: y 4 ae ;.4 .in fic on 'A'is Sy sud"ot,(atom Figure 1.2-1.Susitna Watershed Boundary and USGS Gage Locations FINAL DRAFT Page 1-3 May 2014 --Z-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. Station Name 3g{USGS Station Number)Fe ee SRSFIRFSSAIRSPSSIRRRR Litte Susitna River near Paimer (15290000)1 Susitna River near Denali (15291000)TMaclarenRivernearPaxson (15291200) Susitna River near Cantwell : (15291500) Susi RiveraGold Creek |a,(15292000)bi n r Chulitna River near Talkeetna : (15292400){ Talkeetna River near Talkeetna -le(15292700)= Susitna River at Sunshine TT(15292780) Montana Creek near Montana (45292800)ns Lanne Witlow ©r90k New Willow a ee(15204008)os meen emma masa Deception Creek near Willow (15294010) OM mC) "(15294100)bonerStowerinaRiveree(18294300) Yentna River near Susitna Station(18204345)a. Susitna River at Susitna Station (15294350) Note:Data are on a calendar year basis. Legend Complete years of record Partial years of record Figure 1.2-2.Susitna Watershed USGS Flow Data -Chronological Availability 1.3 Upstream Dams There are no dams upstream from the Watana Dam site. 1.4 Field Visit A field visit was performed on May 29,2013.The probable maximum precipitation (PMP)and PMF Board of Consultants (BOC)experts and consultants performed a watershed over-flight in a single-engine airplane,beginning and ending at Talkeetna airport.Numerous geo-referenced photographs were taken.All watershed observations were made from the air as no landings were made within the watershed area tributary to Watana Dam. The field visit occurred at an opportune time because a flood flow that equaled the maximum flow of record occurred at the Gold Creek USGS gaging station just a few days later on June 2, 2013 so water levels were high at the time of the overflight.On May 29,the day of the site visit, the high temperature was 83 degrees at Talkeetna.A colder than average spring was followed by a rapid warming that resulted in a snowmelt flood without significant concurrent rainfall.Figure 1.4-1 shows remnants of a river ice cover following the recent breakup.Figure 1.4-2 shows the Susitna River near the Denali Highway crossing. FINAL DRAFT Page 1-4 May 2014 Za ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. aei.ees we &eh eds EeI wea eee bed en eS2lhe,. FINAL DRAFT Page 1-5 May 2014 Zz ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. 1.5 Watershed Description 1.5.1 Watershed Area-Elevation Data In mountainous regions,snowpack can vary widely with elevation.To account for the variation of snowpack with elevation,the watershed area is divided into 1,000-foot elevation bands.The 1,000-foot elevation bands tributary to Watana Dam and to the USGS gaging station at Gold Creek are graphically depicted on Figure 1.5-1.To account for the areal variation in many parameters,including snowpack,the watershed was divided into 29 sub-basins to the Watana dam site,with 5 additional sub-basins between the Watana dam site and Gold Creek.The sub- basin boundaries are also depicted on Figure 1.5-1. pore 4 OS)aa Figure 1.5-1.Susitna Watershed Sub-Basins and Elevation Bands Table 1.5-1 provides the detailed results of the area by 1,000-foot elevation in each sub-basin to the proposed Watana Dam site in with dam condition.The results in Table 1.5-1 are for the PMF study with the constructed dam,with sub-basin 29 being the area of the reservoir itself.This provides the capability of using 136 unique snowpack values for the area tributary to Watana Dam.Table 1.5-2 provides the areas in 1,000-foor elevation bands to Gold Creek under existing without dam conditions. It is noted that over 69 percent of the watershed tributary to Watana Dam lies within two elevation bands (2000-3000 and 3000-4000 feet)and over 88 percent lies within three elevation FINAL DRAFT Page 1-6 May 2014 -Z-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. bands (adding the 4000-5000 foot level).This means that the snowpack at higher watershed elevations,which may be known with less accuracy,has reduced importance in comparison with the snowpack values at lower watershed elevations.It also means that the temperature lapse rate, applied in 1,000-foot increments to determine snowmelt,cannot have significant error as long as the base temperatures are correct. Table 1.5-1.Area in Elevation Bands to Watana Dam Basin Area in Elevation Bands (sq.mi.)for Model with Reservoir %of No.41-2000 |2-3000 |3-4000 {4-5000 |5-6000 |6-7000 |7-8000 |8-9000 |9-10000|10-11000|11-14000]Total Total 4A].00 |00|87 |19.7 |89 |113 |39 |]02 |00 |00 |00 |527 |1.02%||2 |00|16.4 105.6 65.3 32.3 70]04 |00 /00 |OO|00 226.9 4.39%|3 |0.0 145.7 |1395 |98 |02 |00 |OO {|00 |OO |00 |OO |2952 5.71% 4 0.0 3.5 18.2 28.5 34.4 32.5 17.1 9.2 3.8 1.4 0.8 149.4 2.89% _5_}_00 90.7 93.0 99.8 48.5 |185 |36|00 00 |00|0.0 |3542|685%||6 |00 |36 |231 |308|370 |298|140 |34 |45 |o9 |04 J|_1534 |297%|7_|_0.0 55.2 |94 |21 |08 0.0 0.0,|00 )00 |00 |00 |67.5 |1.31%_8 _|_00 |543 |604 }595 |158|01 |09 |oo |09 |00 |00 |1901 |3.68%|_9 _{_00°38.5 91.3 52.5 53}0.0 |00 |00 |00 |00 |O00 |1876|3.63%| 10 0.0 180.0 113.2 28.1 5.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 326.9 6.32% |11 |_0.0 72.4 130.2 57.0 13.7 04|_00 |0.0 00 |,00 |00 |273.6 |5.29%12 _}_00 |48.7_|]237|24 |00 |00 |O00 |OO |00 |00 |00 |747 |1.45%| 13 0.0.202.6 20.1 /_00 |00 |00 |OO |00 00 |00|00 |2226|4.30%||14 |00 |134.5 |37 |]OO |OO |00 |0.0 0.0 |00 ,00 |00 |}135.2,|261%|15 |0.0 68.0 87.9 29.3 |_0.0_00 |00.00 |00 |OO |OO |185.2 3.58% 16 0.0 41.6 100.5 22.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 164.4 3.18%_7_|_0.0 |2232 |273 |_26 |02 |00 |oo |oo |oo |_oo |_oo |2533 |490%||18 |00 [O01 |287 |48.2 |212 |18 |OO |00 |OO |OO |00 |100.0 1.93% |19 |00 |06 |459 |77.9|629 |144 |05|00 |00 |00 |007 2022 3.91% 20 0.0 16.5 19.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 36.3 0.70% _21 OO |72 [|484 |523 |42.3|)11.6 _1.0 0.0.00 |00°0.0 |1627 }3.15%|22 |00_|763 |140 |47 |_00_|009|00|00 |00 |oo|oo |_920_|1.78%23)|00 |41.0 }887 |351 |40 |00 0.0 |0.0 0.0 [0.0 0.0 |1689 3.27%_24 |00 |516 |895 |202 |15 |00 |00 |00 |oo |oo |oo |1628 |3.15%|_25 0.0.5.3_|42.0 72.4 |540|10.2 0.1 00|00 7 00|00 |1840|3.56% 26 0.0 37.1 115.5 51.0 17.2 2.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 222.9 4.31% |27 |0.0 |144.0 |925 |333 |28 |01 1 OO |00 |00 |00 |00 269.6 5.21% _28 _|_00 |622 |885 |617 |88 |00 |00 |00 |oo |oo |_oo_|2211|4.28%|29 0.0 36.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 36.8 0.71% Total 0.0 1851.4 |1729.1 |972.2 |417.6 139.8 40.6 12.8 5.3 2.3 1.3 5172.3 |100.00% 0.00%|35.79%|33.43%|18.80%|8.07%|2.70%|0.78%|}0.25%{0.10%|0.04%|0.02%|100.00% FINAL DRAFT Page 1-7 May 2014 -Z-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. Table 1.5-2.Area in Elevation Bands to Gold Creek Basin Area in Elevation Bands (sq.mi.)for Model without Resenoir %of No._[0-100 |1-200 |2-3000 |34000 |4-500 |§-6000 |6-7000 |7-8000 |8-000]9-10000 [10-1100]11-14000 |Total |Total_1_[_o0 |oo [00|s87_[497 |89 [113 [39 |o2 |00 |oo [oo |627 |086%|2 |00 |oo |164 |1056 |65.3 |323 |70|04 |00 |00|00 |00 |2269 |3.69%|3 [oo|oo |1457 [1395 |98 [02 |00|00 |oo [oo |00 |00 |2052 |480% 4 oo |oo |35 |182 |25 |344 |325 |171 |92 |38 1.4 0.8 149.4 |2.43%_s|00 |00 |907 |930 |998 |485 [185 |36 |oo |oo |oo [oo |3542 |5.76%||6 {00 |oo |36 |231 |308 |37.0 |208 |140 |34 |15 [|09 |04 |1534 |250%|7 [oo [|00 |552 |94 |21 [o8 |oo [00 |oo [|00 |oo |00 |675 [1.10%_8 _|_o0|00 |543 |604 |595 |158 |01 |00 |oo |oo |oo |oo |1901 |3.09%|_9 _|_00 |oo |385 |913 [525 |53 [00 |00 |00 |00 |oo [oo |1876 |305%to |oo |oo |1800 |1132]2.1 |55 |00 |00 |00 |00 0.0 0.0 |3269 |5.32%LE AV f _0.0_|00 |724 |130.2)87.0 |437_)_04 |00 _|00 |0.0 _|00 |00 _|2736 |4.45%_12 [oo |00 |4a7 |237 |24 |00 |oo |oo |oo [|oo |oo |00 |47 |122%|13_|_00 |oo |2026 |201 [00 |oo [00 |oo |00 |oo |oo |oo |2226 |362%L 44.|0.0 _|0.0 |1315 |37 |_00_|00 |00 |00 |G0 |0.0 _|00 |00 _|135.2 |220%|15 [oo |oo |680 [a79 |293 |09 |oo |00 |oo [|oo |oo |00 |1852 |301%t¢|.00 |oo |416 |1005 |222 |oo |oo |oo |oo |oo |oo |00 |1644 |268%|_w7_|_00 |oo [2232 |273 [26 |02 [00 |00 |00 |00 [|00 [|oo |2533 |412%|ts |oo |oo |01 |207 [482 |212 [18 |00 |00 |oo |oo |00 |1000 |163%|P19 [oo |oo|06 [459|779 [629 |144 [05 |a0 [00 |00 |00 [|2022 |320%20 |oo |00 |165 |198 |01 [00 |00 |00 |00 |00 0.0 0.0 36.3 |0.59%z2_|oo |oo |72 |4a4 |523|423 |116 |10 |00 |00 |00 |oo |1627 |265%L 22)|0.0 _|00 |763 |14.0 |417 |00 _)_00 |0.0 |00 |00 |00 }_0.0 _|92.0 ]1.50%|23.|0.0 _}0.0 |440 |887 |3541 |40 _)00 |0.0 |00 |00 |00 |)_0.0 |168.9 |2.75%_24|oo |00 |516 [095 |22]15 |00 |oo |oo [|00|00 |00|1628|265%2|00 |oo |53 |420 |724|540 |102|04 |00 |oo |oo |oo|184.0|290%|2 |oo |oo |374 |1155 [510 |17.2 [|21 |00 |00 |00 0.0 0.0 |2229 |3.63%|27 [00 |00 |1410 |925 |333 |28 |01|00 |00 [oo |of |00 |2696 |430%28 _|00 |00 |622 [es |s17[88 |oo [|00 |oo |oo |00 |00|2211 |360%|-29_|_00 |304|64 |_00_|00 _j_00 |00 |)00|00 |_00 |00 |_00_|_36.8 |0.60%30,|00 _|25 |354 |396|548 |138 |01 |00 |00 |009 |oo J oo |146.4 |2.30%|f 3 [oo |19 |716 [504|s42 |95 |06 [00 |oo [00 |00 |00 |4793 [292%x [oo [458 |eo7 |era |se4 fo7 |oo |00 [oo [oo |00 |oo [2081 |3.30%|33_|_10 |s99 [|101.3 |565 [467|80 |00 |oo |00 |oo|oo |00|2734 |445%34 |109 |71.4 |453 |262 |104 |05 |00 |00 |00 |00 0.0 0.0 164.8 |2.68%Total |11.9 |224.0 |2135.4 |1983.2]11367 |4501 |1405 |406 |128 |53 23 1.3 |6144.1 |100.00%0.19%|3.65%|34.76%|32.28%|18.50%|7.33%|2.20%|0.66%|0.21%}0.09%|0.04%|0.02%|10.00% 1.5.2 Geology and Soils The Susitna-Watana area is underlain by a variety of rock units consisting primarily of Cretaceous and Tertiary plutonic and volcanic rocks plus argillaceous and lithic greywacke resulting from the accretion of northwestward drifting tectonic plates onto the North American plate.The region was subjected to repeated glaciation during the late Quaternary.At its glacial maximum,an ice cap covered the Talkeetna Mountains and nearly everything from the crest of the Alaska Range to the Gulf of Alaska.Subsequent advances were not extensive enough to create an ice cap over the Talkeetna Mountains and evidence suggests a series of glaciations of sequentially decreasing extent. FINAL,DRAFT Page 1-8 May 2014 --Z-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. The glaciers advanced from the Alaska Range to the north,the southern and southeastern Talkeetna Mountains,and the Talkeetna Mountains north and northwest of the Susitna River. Glacial flow was predominantly south and southwest,following the regional slope and structural grain.At least three periods of glaciation have been delineated for the region based on the glacial stratigraphy.During the most recent period,glaciers filled the adjoining lowland basins and spread onto the continental shelf.Waning of the ice masses from the Alaska Range and Talkeetna Mountains formed ice barriers which blocked the drainage of glacial meltwater and produced glacial lakes.As a consequence of the repeated glaciation,the Susitna basin is covered by varying thicknesses of till and lacustrine deposits. Permafrost distribution in the greater Susitna-Watana region has been characterized as "discontinuous"(50-90 percent of the area is underlain by permafrost)except along the immediate river corridor itself,which is characterized as "isolated"(>0-10 percent of the area is underlain by permafrost)(Jorgenson et al:2008).Based on the subsurface investigations to date, most of which are within two miles of the proposed dam site,permafrost is generally continuous (greater than 90 percent of the area is underlain by permafrost)under north-facing slopes.Thefrozengroundistypicallyencounteredwithin10feetofthesurfaceandextendstodepthsof approximately 200 feet.Ground temperatures typically range from 31-32°F. Hydrologic soil groups provide an initial indication of infiltration rates to be used for runoff modeling.As shown in Table 1.5-3,90%of the Susitna watershed tributary to the Watana Dam site (Harza-Ebasco 1984)is covered with soils having the lower infiltration rates of Hydrologic Soil Groups C and D.A review of the assignment of soil types to hydrologic soil groups in the previous study (Harza-Ebasco 1984)indicated that generally conservative judgments to lower infiltration soil groups were made.The minimum infiltration rates in Table 1.5-3 for the watershed tributary to the Watana Dam site are from the PMF guidelines (FERC 2001),but it is noted that published USBR (1974)minimum infiltration rates for hydrologic soil group C are given as 0.08 to 0.15 inches/hour,and for hydrologic soil group D the minimum infiltration rates are given as 0.02 to 0.08 inches/hour.Further initial indications of infiltration rates is provided by calibration results from the previous Susitna PMF studies. Table 1.5-3.Watershed Minimum Infiltration Rates _Range of Percent of Hydrologic Minimum Rates Area Area Tributary Soil Group (inches/hour)(sq.mi.)to Watana |LA__|_030-045|0 _|0%_|_ _B__|_015-0.30_}526 |__10%_| -f&Ls0.05-0.15 _|_2465_]__48%__ D 0.00 -0.05 2,189 42% FINAL DRAFT Page 1-9 May 2014 --Z-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. 1.5.3 Land Use and Land Cover Figures 1.5-2 and 1.5-3 show the type and distribution of watershed cover and Table 1.5-4 provides a data summary of cover types for the entire watershed.Table 1.5-5 provides similar information for each sub-basin.Shrub and scrub is the dominant watershed cover type,totaling about 56%of the entire watershed.Forest covers about 18%of the watershed to the Gold Creek USGS gaging station.Barren land makes up about 15%of the watershed cover,while wetlands cover 3.9%,perennial snow/ice is 3.8%and open water covers 2.9%of the watershed. Table 1.5-4.Watershed Cover To Gold Creek without Reservoir Area %of Code Description (sq.mi.)Total 52.)___Shmub/Serub |2784.0 |45.3%| |42 _|___Evergreen Forest____|_996.4_|_16.2%_|_31 _|Barren Land (Rocks/Sand/Clay)_|_925.9 15.1% St}___DwarfSerub_|652.9 |10.6%| _90._|___Woody Wetlands |298.9 |3.9%_||12 _[L ___Perennial Ice/Snow ___|_234.3 _|_3.8%_ ee Open Water ___|_180.3_|2.9%__43 |___MixedForest)|356.4 |0.9%| _41_j___Deciduous Forest ___|_!54.20 |0.9%_|72 Sedge/Herbaceous 14.6 |0.2%_ |_95 _|Emergent Herbaceous Wetlands |2.9 |0.0%__22 |__Developed,Low Intensity)=|_-1.7_0.0% _7i_|__Grassland/Herbaceous |160 |0.0%| |21 _|__Developed,Open Space __|_0.1 _|_0.0%_ 23 Developed,Medium Intensity 0.01 0.0% Total 6144.1 100.0% FINAL DRAFT Page 1-10 May 2014 -za-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO __AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. Table 1.5-5.Watershed Cover by Sub-Basin Sub-Developed,|Developed,Emergent Sub- Basin Deciduous Low Medium ped,rb Perennial Sedge/WoodyNumber,Intensity Intensity Wetlands.ice/Snow |Herbaceous Wetlands SIs2)e1IN°oFINAL DRAFT Page 1-11 May 2014 a ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. Pe 20 vomeneasLandcaretty310d Northern Upper Susitna Land Cover Figure 1.5-2.Susitna Watershed Land Cover -North Half nen "yO RE PrNisa a n mer WE Er:vesmnnets jarsCover_f_TT7_94thee Southern Upper Susitna Land Cover Figure 1.5-3.Susitna Watershed Land Cover-South Half FINAL DRAFT Page 1-12 May 2014 a ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. 1.6 Previous Studies A PMF study was originally performed by the U.S.Army Corps of Engineers for the Watana Dam site and was described in the following two documents: e U.S.Army Corps of Engineers,1975.Interim Feasibility Report,South Central Railbelt Area,Alaska;Appendix 1,Part 1,Section 4. e U.S.Army Corps of Engineers,1979.Supplemental Feasibility Report,South Central Railbelt Area,Alaska. During feasibility studies performed for the Alaska Power Authority in the 1980's,two additional PMF studies were performed as described in the following two documents: e Acres American Inc.,1982.Feasibility Report,Susitna Hydroelectric Project,Volume 4, Appendix A,Hydrological Studies,Final Draft. e Harza-Ebasco Susitna Joint Venture,January 1984.Probable Maximum Flood for Watana and Devil Canyon Sites,Susitna Hydroelectric Project,Draft Report,Document No.457. The Acres and Harza-Ebasco PMF studies were reviewed and some information from the previous studies was used where applicable and advantageous to the current study.The current study is independent and substantially different from any previous study because of watershed sub-basin delineation,calibration and verification of unit hydrographs,the probable maximum precipitation,snowpack and snowmelt,and other parameters. FINAL DRAFT Page 1-13 May 2014 -y ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. 2.WATERSHED MODEL AND SUBDIVISION 2.1 Watershed Model Methodology Three flood hydrology models were considered for performing the PMF study including: e Streamflow Synthesis and Reservoir Routing (SSARR).This model was developed by the U.S.Army Corps of Engineers (USACE),North Pacific Division.The SSARR model was used for the 1982 Susitna PMF study.In addition to its use by the USACE, the SSARR model was used occasionally by consultants for flood simulation on major watersheds,particularly in the Pacific Northwest.The SSARR model is no longer in general use.The latest version of SSARR was modified in 1991 to run on IBM- compatible personal computers.The USACE has noted that there will be no further program updates or modifications to the SSARR files by the USACE,and no user support is available. e Flood Hydrograph Package (HEC-1).This model was developed by the Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC)of the USACE and was (possibly still is)the most widely used _model in PMF studies.HEC-1 is one of the two rainfall-runoff models recommended for PMF studies (FERC 2001).Compared to other models,HEC-1 has the advantage of including the recommended energy budget snowmelt method as well as fully documented equations for calculating snowmelt in the model. e Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS).This model was also developed by the HEC and is the Windows-based successor to HEC-1.HEC-HMS contains many of the same methods as HEC-1 and is the other model recommended for PMF studies (FERC 2001). Snowmelt in the HEC-HMS model is based on a method that uses temperature data only. Flood hydrology model selection was reviewed with the BOC during the initial BOC meeting on November 2,2012.With BOC input from that review,the HEC-1 Flood Hydrograph Package _was selected as the rainfall-runoff model for developing the PMF inflow and routing of the PMF through the reservoir.The SSARR model is generally no longer in use outside of the USACE. HEC-1 includes the preferred energy budget method of snowmelt computation (FERC 2001)that is unavailable in HEC-HMS and much experience data is available for HEC-1 that is unavailable particularly for snowmelt coefficients in HEC-HMS. The Clark unit hydrograph method was used along with uniform infiltration losses.The Clark method parameters tc (time of concentration)and R (a storage coefficient)were developed by calibration.The ratio R/(Tc +R)has been found in a number of studies to be fairly constant on a FINAL DRAFT Page 2-1 May 2014 za ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO _AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. regional basis (ASCE 1997;FERC 2001,pg.36).This relationship was used as a means of initially estimating the parameters.Snowmelt was accomplished within the HEC-1 program using the energy budget method. 2.2 Sub-Basin Definition The segmentation of the watershed into sub-basins included a number of factors,including the following: e The USGS gaging stations would be included as the downstream boundary of sub-basins to facilitate model calibration. e The major tributaries should be sub-basins. e The major glaciers should have sub-basins. e Watana reservoir would be included as a separate sub-basin to model the post-project reservoir properties and to set a computation point at the proposed dam site. e There should be sufficient sub-basins to account for the areal variation of historic precipitation and the probable maximum precipitation. e There should be sufficient sub-basins to account for the elevation distribution of the 'watershed. e The objectives should be accomplished without an excessive number of sub-basins that would cause unwarranted difficulty in model calibration and data preparation. Using the above factors as guidelines,Figure 2.2-1 outlines the selected 29 sub-basins tributary to Watana Dam and the 5 additional sub-basins between Watana Dam and the USGS gaging station at Gold Creek,which is the downstream limit of the PMF study.The average sub-basin size was about 180 square miles.Previous experience with PMF studies that included significant snowmelt contributions has shown that sub-basin sizes of about 200 square miles has been sufficient to develop acceptable model calibration and verification and a reliable estimate of the PMF. FINAL DRAFT Page 2-2 May 2014 Za ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. ae ba SPa.i eASCOEv5danFeSoe .rz4208.-nerFnnaTake,oe Peo Date Sounes:See tap Relerences,o J ii]ee jos0120ry[-- __-__fzee \for San Oeste bonne,eT Laren |e Figure 2.2-1.Susitna Watershed Sub-Basins 2.3 Channel Routing Method Level pool routing was used for routing through Watana reservoir.Although Watana reservoir is relatively large,it may not be large enough to have a significant routing effect on the PMF as the inflow PMF volume will be many times greater than the reservoir volume available to attenuate the inflow flood. The Muskingham-Cunge method was used for channel routing.Flood attenuation of the PMF through channel routing is generally not substantial.For areas downstream from Watana Dam, previously surveyed cross-sectional data and channel lengths were available that were abstracted into the 8-point Muskingum-Cunge cross-section form.For areas upstream from Watana Dam, cross-sectional data and channel lengths were developed from available Google Earth information. FINAL DRAFT Page 2-3 May 2014 --Z-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. 3.HISTORIC FLOOD RECORDS 3.1 Stream Gages As previously presented in Table 1.2-1,long-term streamflow records exist at three USGS gaging stations within the watershed upstream from the proposed Watana Dam site,plus the long-term USGS gage downstream at Gold Creek at a gage having a drainage area about 19% greater than at the dam site.An additional USGS gaging station was established beginning in water year 2012 on the Susitna River above Tsusena Creek,just below the Watana Dam site._ 3.2 Historic Floods ' For the four USGS gages upstream or near the proposed Watana Dam site,the ranked highest ten peak flows of record for the Susitna River at Gold Creek,Cantwell,near Denali,and for the Maclaren River near Paxson have been summarized in Tables 3.2-1 through Table 3.2-4, respectively.Floods for the same date at different stations have been highlighted in the same color.Floods with the largest recorded peaks at the most gages are favored for selection as flood hydrograph calibration and verification floods.As would be expected,there is some variation in the flood rankings from gage to gage,in part due to the period of record available for each gage. Table 3.2-1.Recorded Peak Flows Susitna River at Gold Creek-59 Years of Record Date Peak Flow Rank (cfs)cfs/sq.mi. 1 June 7,1964 90,700 |14.7.| -2_Rue J -87,400 _|_14.2 _ _3_|June 17,1972 |_82,600 |13.4_|4 J dune 15,1962 |80,600.|131 |5 [August 15,1967 80,200 13.0 _6_|_September 21,2012 |_72,900 _|_11.8 7 July 12,1981 64,900 10.5 |&|_June6,1966__|_63,600_|_10.3. 9 August 25,1959 62,300 10.1 10 August 20,2006 59,800 9.7 FINAL DRAFT Page 3-1 May 2014 -yw ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. Table 3.2-2.Recorded Peak Flows -Susitna River at Cantwell --18 Years of Record Date Peak Flow Rank (cfs)cfs/sq.mi. |1 [August 1019719 55,000 13.3 2_}_dune8,1964 |51,200.|_12.4_|_3_[dune 15,1962_]46,800 11.3 |4 |June 17,1972 |44,700 |108 _5 [August14.4967]38,800 9.4 _6_|_June 16,1984 |33,400 |8.1 |7_|July 18,1963 32,000 7.7 |8 |August 14,1981 |30,900 _|_7.5 _9 |June23,1961 30,400 7.3 10 [July 29,1980 |28500 |69 Table 3.2-3.Recorded Peak Flows -Susitna River near Denali -28 Years of Record Date Peak Flow Rank (cfs)cfs/sq.mi. 1 |August 10,1971 §38,200 40.2 2 LaAugusth1419670$28,200 |297 _ 3 July 28,2003 27,800 29.3 |4 |September 21,2012 |_25100_|26.4 | 5 July 28,1980 24,300 25.6 6_|_August9,1981_|23,200 _|_24.4 7 August 4,1976 22,100 23.3 |8 |_July 12,1975 _|_21,700_|228 | 9 June 7,1957 18,700 19.7 10 July 7,1983 18,700 19.7 FINAL DRAFT Page 3-2 May 2014 za ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. Table 3.2-4.Recorded Peak Flows -Maclaren River near Paxson -28 Years of Record Date Peak Flow [Rank _{cf8)__|cfs/sq.mi. 1 li 9,260 33.1 _2_|September13,1960|8,920.|31.9 |3 [August14.4967 7,460 26.6 |4 |_July 18,1963_|_7,300 _}_26.1 _ 5 July 2,1985 7,190 25.7 6 |_June 16,1972 _|__7,070_|25.3.| 7_|August 10,1981 6,650 23.8 |8 |August 5,1961 |6,540 |234 _ 9 June 14,1962 6,540 23.4 10 June 7,1964 6,400 22.9 3.2.1 Flood Frequency Peak annual flows have been recorded by the USGS at Gold Creek for the unusually long period of 60 years,as summarized in Table 3.2-5.Peak flow rates provided by the USGS include both average daily values and instantaneous peaks. Peak flows for return periods up to 10,000 years were estimated for the Susitna River at Gold Creek.Peak flows were estimated for various return periods by fitting recorded peak flow data with a Log Pearson Type III distribution according to methods in Bulletin 17B (ACWD,1982). Estimated peak flows for the Susitna River at Gold Creek are presented in Table 3.2-6. The quality of the fit of the parameterized Log Pearson Type III distribution to the observed data is evaluated by plotting the data and the parameterized distribution together.A good fit is indicated by data points for observed annual peaks which are close to and randomly distributed above and below the computed Log Pearson Type III curve.The probability values assigned to each data point,called plotting positions,and the scale of the x-axis,are selected so that the Log Pearson Type III distribution appears as a straight line when the skew value is zero. The fitted distribution and resulting estimated peak flows at specified return periods are approximations.The ability to fit a distribution depends on the size and the variability within the sample.Confidence limits around the computed distribution curve provide a measure of the uncertainty for the predicted discharge at a specified exceedance probability. Figure 3.2-1 below shows the fitted Log Pearson Type III distribution as a solid line,5 percent and 95 percent upper and lower confidence limits on the distribution as dashed lines,the FINAL DRAFT Page 3-3 May 2014 --Z--ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. observed annual peak flow data,and return periods for which peak flows were estimated in Table 3.2-6. Table 3.2-5.Peak Annual Flows in the Susitna River at Gold Creek Peak Flow Peak Flow Peak FlowDate(cfs)Date (cfs)Date (cfs) June 21,1950 34,000 June 30,1970 33,400 September 15,1990 50,300 June 8,1951 37,400 August 10,1971 87,400 June 23,1991 35,300 June 17,1952 44,700 June 17,1972 82,600 July 19,1992 33,300 June 7,1953 38,400 June 16,1973 54,100 September 3,1993 36,300 August 4,1954 42,400 May 29,1974 37,200 June 22,1994 46,600 August 26,1955 58,100 June 3,1975 47,300 June 25,1995 37,800 June 9,1956 51,700 June 12,1976 35,700 August 26,1996 26,100 June 8,1957 42,200 June 15,1977 54,300 August 1,2001 40,200 August 3,1958 49,600 June 23,1978 25,000 August 23,2002 36,200 August 25,1959 62,300 July 16,1979 41,300 July 28,2003 51,700 September 13,1960 41,900 July 29,1980 51,900 May 8,2004 43,400 June 23,1961 54,000 July 12,1981 64,900 June 19,2005 50,200 June 15,1962 80,600 June 21,1982 37,900 August 20,2006 59,800 July 18,1963 49,000 June 3,1983 37,300 May 28,2007 30,800 June 7,1964 90,700 June 17,1984 59,100 July 30,2008 34,400 June 28,1965 43,600 May 28,1985 40,400 May 5,2009 40,400 June 6,1966 63,600 June 18,1986 29,100 July 22,2010 37,400 August 15,1967 80,200 July 31,1987 47,300 May 29,2011 46,300 May 22,1968 41,800 June 16,1988 43,600 September 21,2012 72,000 May 25,1969 28,400 June 15,1989 46,800 June 1,2013 90,500 FINAL DRAFT Page 3-4 May 2014 -a-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. Return Period (Years) 2 5 10 20 50 100 500 1,000 10,000 ¢ae Log Pearson Type III ,2_-|4 Flood Frequency for Tl the Susitna River at a r tt.Gold Creek --"|A - A ”rc -1950 -2013 Computed Curve a ae At100,000 +4 >wa os||©Observed Annual Peaks Ay o-f r]=--5%and 95%Confidence Limit Curves 1 ta 2 a2 32 Le x oO Do a 10,000 4 ttt tt :2 -2.6 -1.6 -0.6 0.4 1.4 2.4 3.4 Standard Normal Variable Figure 3.2-1.Log Pearson Type II Flood Frequency Plot for the Susitna River at Gold Creek Table 3.2-6.Calculated Flood Frequency for the Susitna River at Gold Creek Return Period Flow (Years)(cfs) 2 44,700 5 58,600 10 68,700 25 82,700 50 93,800 100 106,000 200 118,000 500 135,000 1,000 149,000 10,000 195,000 FINAL DRAFT Page 3-5 May 2014 Zz ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. Peak flows were estimated for return periods up to 1,000 years at the Watana Dam site by transposing peak flow analysis results at Gold Creek to Watana according to the following equation: Awatana )"Qwatana =Qcoid creek X (;Gold Creek In the above equation,A is the drainage area for each site.Peak flows are frequently adjusted from a gaged to an ungaged location by the ratio of the square root of the drainage areas.A USGS publication on the Flood Characteristics of Alaskan Streams (Water Resources Investigations 78-129,indicates that the exponent of the drainage area ratio should be at about the selected 0.86 value.The estimated flood frequency values for Watana Dam are presented in Table 3.2-7. Table 3.2-7.Estimated Peak Annual Flows in the Susitna River at Watana Dam ReturnPeriod Flow (Years)(cfs) 2 38,500 5 50,500 10 59,200 20 68,300 25 71,300 50 80,800 100 91,300 500 116,300 1,000 128,400 10,000 168,000 3.2.2 Seasonal Flood Distribution The determination of a 100-year snowpack for every month of the year is unnecessary because of the highly seasonal nature of Susitna River flow.With 59 years of daily flow data available,the USGS streamflow gage at Gold Creek provides an excellent long-term record of the seasonality of Susitna River flow.Table 3.2-8 provides the maximum daily flow of record at Gold Creek for each month.During the coldest months of November through March,a daily flow of as much as 10,000 cfs has never been recorded,indicating that these five months can be eliminated as potentially maximum flood producing months. FINAL DRAFT Page 3-6 ,May 2014 -yw SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414 Table 3.2-8.Maximum Daily Flows for Each Month at Gold Creek Gold Creek USGS Gage Maximum Daily Flow (cfs) January _|__2,900 _|February |_3,700._ |_March_|_2,400._ April _24,000 | _May _|__55,500_||_June _|_85,900_|_duly _|_60,800 _August _|_77,700_| September |__70,800_| |October |_36,200 _ |November |_8,940 _ December 4,400 Table 3.2-9 summaries the month of occurrence of the annual peak flow at each of the four USGS gages in or near the watershed tributary to the Watana Dam site.For the gaging stations nearest the Watana Dam site,Gold Creek and Cantwell,June is the month during which the annual maximum flows most frequently occur and the same is true at the Maclaren gage.The Denali gage is most heavily influenced by glacier melt and annual peak flows occur most frequently at Denali during July or August.In 134 gage-years of daily flow data,an annual peak flow has never been recorded during the months of October through April. Additional flow frequency data at Gold Creek is provided on Figure 3.2-2.April and May are the months with the lowest reservoir elevations,and April flows exceed 10,000 cfs less than 1 percent of the time,April can be eliminated from further consideration as the critical PMF month for Watana Dam.Although October has never had an annual maximum flow,the reservoir levels would be higher and it was therefore retained for further consideration as a potentially critical month for the PMF. FINAL DRAFT Page 3-7 May 2014 Zz SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414 Table 3.2-9.Monthly Distribution of Annual Peak Flows Gold Creek Gage Cantwell Gage Denali Gage Maclaren Gage _|Total of All Gages Month Annual %of |Annual %of Annual %of Annual %of Annual %of Peaks Total Peaks Total Peaks Total Peaks Total Peaks Total January 0 0%0 0%0 0%0 0%fe]0% |February_|__0_O%_|__|0%J_O_]_O%_|_9 _}_O%|_O_[|0%_March 0 0%0 0%0 0%0 0%|0.|_O%_| Apil JO _|0%_j_OLf _O%_|_O_}_O%|_O_|0%_}|__O_|_O%_|May _|__8_14%_|1 _|.6%}_O_|_0%_|_1_4%10 th|dune _|_28 |47%|8 |44%|3_|10%|12 |43%|_51_|38%July _9 _15%|5 |28%12,_]41%|_6 _|21%_}-32.|24%| August |_10 17%_|_4_|22%_|_12 _|_41%|_7 _|25%_|_33.|_25%_||September |__4_MH 10 |.0%|2 |7%_|2 |_7%|_8 _|6% |October_|__o |_0o%|o |0%|_o_]|o%_|o|om |_o_|om _November ¢)0%0 0%0 0%0 0%0 0%_ December 0 0%0 0%0 0%0 0%0 0% Total 59 100%18 100%29 100%28 100%134 100% 100,000 {||| @Maximum Based on Historic 90,000 _Recorded Daily Flows +-"1%Exceedence /\ie surg Re ata 80,000 -a-5%Exceedance Gage 15282000 -- 70,000 -e-50%Exceedance |/DN, -90%Exeedance /\J \-60,000 lan S g N PNé50,000 /VW 7 AN \&49,000 La \\30,000 /[oN he \=20,000 ]J KO10,000 M4 AC=e LW SSS Jan Feb Mar Apr Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Figure 3.2-2.Historic Flow Frequency at the USGS Gold Creek Gage FINAL DRAFT 'Page 3-8 May 2014 Zz ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. 3.2.3 Volume Frequency Analysis A volume frequency analysis of historic streamflow records serves two purposes,which are (1) to serve as a potential substitute for the 100-year runoff of glaciated areas,and (2)for comparison to the PMF hydrograph volumes of previous PMF studies.The location of the major glaciers tributary to the Watana Dam site is shown on Figure 3.2-3. ri,1 Se 4 FERSEastForkGlacier 3 MOOT EMP es The 100-year 3-day average runoff is a potential alternative or comparison value for the 100-year snowpack runoff.Table 3.2-10 presents the monthly maximum recorded and 100-year calculated 3-day average runoff at the USGS gaging stations and for the area tributary to Watana Dam. Table 3.2-10.3-Day Average Flows at USGS Gages and Watana Dam Site Station Data Type Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec__|Annual |cfs/sq.mi. Maclaren |Max.Recorded!200 150 130 170 5,977 |6,153 |7,000 |7,257 |5,823 |1,607 483 300 7,257 25.9 Maclaren {|100-YearCalc.|2314 167 148 215 7,778 |6,799 |7,608 |8.416 |5,942 |1,792 502 316 8,564 30.6 Denali Max.Recorded|543 380 320 600 9,040 |16,433 |21,900 |30,433 |14,833 |3,933 |1,263 680 |30,433 32.0 Denali 100-Year Calc.|569 435 366 567__|11,572 |17,526 |24,258 |31,536 |17,448 |4,571 |1,483 809 |30,857 32.5 Cantwell |Max.Recorded}1,800 |1,500 }1,500 |2,467 |25,767 |48,367 |31,667 |49,667 |19,133 |9,667 |3,600 |1,967 |49,667 12.0 Cantwell |100-Year Calc.|2,165 |2,023 |1,848 |2,865 |31,209 |59,494 |36,071 |62,017 |23,876 |11,487 |4,220 |2,358 |62,155 15.0 Gold Creek |Max.Recorded}2,867 |3,567 |2,333 |17,000 |43,567 |81,900 |54,533 |72,733 |66,271 |30,267 |8,627 |4,400 |81,900 13.3 Gold Creek |100-Year Calc.|2,730 |2,848 |2,377 |15,237 |45,345 |80,134 |51,647 [|75,610 |55,687 |28,384 |7,126 |4,019 |84,712 13.8 Watana (1)|Max.Recorded]2,292 |2,866 |1,869 |13,838 |34,464 |69,370 |44,349 |62,563 |38,134 |24,869 |7,005 |3,551 |69,370 13.1 Watana (1)|100-Year Calc.|2,269 |2,336 |1,934 |12,441 |35,923 |66,256 |42,693 |62,662 |33,783 |23,374 |5,846 |3,331 |70,147 13.3 Note (1):Based on USGS synthesized 61-year record from October 1949 through September 2010. FINAL DRAFT Page 3-9 May 2014 Za ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO __AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. The principal influences of glaciers include a delay of the maximum seasonal flow and storage of spring snowmelt in the form of liquid water for release later in the year (Fountain and Tangborn 1985).These influences appear to be at least partially responsible for the occurrence of the maximum recorded flows (highlighted in yellow on Table 3.2-10)in August rather than June at the most upstream gages in the Susitna River watershed. Table 3.2-11 presents the 20-day average and peak flows for the PMF hydrographs from the 1980s Susitna PMF studies and also includes maximum recorded results for the long-term USGS streamflow record at Gold Creek and the estimated 100-year 20-day average flow at Watana Dam.The 100-year volumes from USGS records are of interest because they are likely to primarily result from snowmelt and the 100-year snowpack is the primary contributor to the 20- day volume of the PMF hydrograph.One striking result of this comparison is that the Acres 1982 PMF volume appears to be far too high,which means that the estimated antecedent 100- year snowpack was far too great in that study. Table 3.2-11.20-Day Average Flows and Peak Flows Study Location Data Type|Av.cfs |Total Acre-Feet |Peak cfseeCurrent(1)____|Watana Dam |100-Year|50,200 |_1,990,000 _|86,600 |___USGS Records ___|<Gold Creek |Maximum|59,280 |_2,350,000 _|90,700 |Pe Acres 1982, -__|_WatanaDam_|_PMF _|_220,600|__8,750,000__|325,000 _Harza-Ebasco 1984-May |WatanaDam |PMF |106,900|4,240,000 |309,000. Harza-Ebasco 1984 -June Watana Dam PMF 76,900 3,050,000 254,000 Harza-Ebasco 1984 -July-Aug Watana Dam PMF 59,000 2,340,000 267,000 Note (1):20-day maximums are based on USGS synthesized 61-year record 3.2.4 Spring Breakup Timing Effects on Maximum Floods A timing analysis of the beginning of spring high flows has revealed a correlation between maximum floods and a late start to the spring breakup high flows.This is a key observation because it provides a mechanism for rapid melting of large snowpacks during late spring when higher temperatures are possible.Although this type of cold,late spring with a rapid June warming has been advanced as a PMF producing mechanism in a previous Susitna PMF study (Acres 1982)and for a PMF study of the Yukon River (Weather Bureau 1966),no recorded data was presented in these studies confirming the historic existence of this scenario for production of maximum floods. In the current analysis,it was assumed that the first day of the calendar year having a flow of 5,000 cfs or more at Gold Creek would serve as a proxy for the beginning of the spring breakup high flows.As shown on Table 3.2-12,the two years that are tied for the highest flow of record, 1964 and 2013,had the latest and third latest start to high spring flows in the 60 years of peak FINAL DRAFT Page 3-10 May 2014 --Z- ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414,Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. flow records.It is noted that the 2013 flows are preliminary and subject to change by the USGS. Figure 5 presents a flood frequency curve for the USGS gage at Gold Creek that indicates the 90,700 cfs maximum flow of record has about a 2.5 percent chance of occurrence in any given year (about a 40-year return period).These historic records are a strong indicator of maximum flood producing mechanism. Table 3.2-12.Initiation of Spring Breakup during Historic Large Flood Years Flood Peak Date of anephePeakFloodPeakDateFlowInitial5,000 , Rank (cfs)|cfs Flow |oS Flow(of 60 years) _1 (tie)_|_June7,1964_|90,700 |May 27_|1-Latest _|__1 (tie)June 2,2013 |90,700 May 24 3 (tie) |_3 _L August 10,1971|_87,400_|_May 24 3 (tie) _4_|_June 17,1972 |82,600 |May5_]_35 __ 5 June 15,1962 80,600 May 16 12 3.2.5 May -June 2013 Flood Analysis Because a cold,late spring followed by a rapid June warm up is potentially a PMF producing temperature scenario,the 2013 May-June flood,which had a record maximum peak flow,was examined in more detail as an example maximum flood scenario.In addition,the FERC Board of Consultants performed a site visit on May 29,2013,providing some brief first-hand observations and photographic evidence on flow,meteorological,and snow conditions. Figure 3.2-4 shows the Susitna River preliminary flow data for April 1 through June 30.No Susitna River flow data are available through May 19 due to ice cover.Gaged flow data begins on May 20.Figure 3.2-4 also shows the daily average temperature departure from normal at the Talkeetna airport weather station.For most of April through May 22,temperatures were below normal,far below normal at times.Beginning on May 19,there was a rapid rise in temperatures at Talkeetna beginning at 13 degrees below normal and peaking at 13 degrees above normal on May 29.Daily average flows at Gold Creek rose rapidly,peaking on June 2.Subsequent even higher temperatures in June did not result in flows nearly as high as the June 2 peak,probably because the snowpack had already been mostly melted. FINAL DRAFT Page 3-11 May 2014 -a-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. 100,000 1 A NS A OOO 25 -Susitna R.at Gold Creek (cfs)2013 90,000 -Susitna River Ice (no flow meas.)20 -Talkeetna Temp Departure (deg.F)/on |PEI okt Mit40,000 y |V A a te \\.we LLL Vall LAL. 20,000 \|-15 10,000 -20Flow(cfs)AverageDailyTemp.DeparturefromNormal(deg.F)I | 0 5 =&a i S e &-=a Po =a z er s =e Fy z Cc Cc c <¢Cc Cc Cc ¢725oOiJ>a =]=]a¢¢<<<<<2 <<>Re 2232332323777 2?2 3 x 3633 2-nee Fe FN &RX te oe Se GY Ho BE S$22 Aa 8&8 Figure 3.2-4.April-June 2013 Flow and Temperature Departure from Normal Figure 3.2-5 also shows temperature data at Talkeetna for the same period,but the temperature data is presented as the daily maximum and minimum temperatures.The maximum recorded temperature prior to the peak flow was 83 degrees on May 29.Figure 3.2-6 shows recorded precipitation at Talkeetna in addition to the Gold Creek flows,which shows that the rise in Susitna River flows to record levels occurred during a rain-free period.Recorded rainfall on the day of the peak was too late to have any significant effect on flows.Snowpack records indicate that 2013 was a near normal winter. FINAL DRAFT Page 3-12 May 2014 ---Z--ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. 100,000 100ee--Susitna R.at Gold Creek (cfs)A$0,000 -Susitna River Ice (no flow meas.)90 -Talkeetna Max Temp (deg.F) 80,000 - i 80TalkeetnaMinTemp(deg.F)/\/pV }70 Ssow [| J\ALINowTNAVipsoneW/\V/\|"EIN ZT 60 -Flow(cfs)--7DegreesFarenheit40 Snes_ <20 10,000 ( aof[AA Ff}tt teaoGfGF7c8@335s33BSB338$F FFF FE SES TPP T PPPS SS RSS ZEEEREeeeeaeerereeePRR&ese ea SA 8 Figure 3.2-5.April -June 2013 Flow and Temperatures 400,000 -0.0 90,000 {2013 |0.2 [80,000 /04 70,000 /60,000 \50,000 \ 40,000 N[NeAGnain30,000 wasTaikeetna Precipitation (in.)UlJ [- -Susitna R.at Gold Creek (cfs)\Y 2oFlow(cfs)re5Precipitation(inches)20,000 -Susitna River Ice (no flow meas.)|16 10,000 18 PEREPEES ER PTET T TRE TES EES EE kesPElssPsheePPRSSPSLRRESSesssigs Figure 3.2-6.April -June 2013 Flow and Precipitation FINAL DRAFT Page 3-13 May 2014 Zz ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. 3.3 Precipitation Associated with Historic Floods The Storm Precipitation Analysis System (SPAS)was used to develop historical precipitation data for the Susitna River watershed upstream from the USGS gage at Gold Creek.SPAS is a state-of-the-science hydrometeorological tool used to characterize the magnitude,temporal,and spatial details of precipitation events.A more complete discussion of the development of historic precipitation for use in runoff model calibration is included in Appendix A. Historical data was acquired to develop meteorological time series for use in rain on snow PMF modeling.Information from six storms was used in the runoff model calibration efforts.Daily and hourly time series were developed for meteorological parameters (i.e.temperature,dew point,wind)required for snow melt modeling using data from surrounding weather stations (e.g. NWS COOP,RAWS,SNOTEL,and various other networks). 3.4 Snowpack and Snowmelt During Historic Floods Normally three floods are selected for calibration and verification of unit hydrograph parameters and loss rates.Because the Susitna River is subject to two distinctly different types of floods, snowmelt dominated floods in the spring and rainfall dominated floods in the summer,three historic floods of each type were selected for analysis.The flood periods selected for calibration and verification of hydrograph parameters are: 1.June 1964 (spring) 2.August 1967 (summer) 3.June 1971 (spring) 4.August 1971 (summer) 5.June 1972 (spring) 6.September 2012 (summer) There is no SNOTEL data available at any gage for the August 1967 and August 1971 floods. The snow course sites do not begin measurement until the end of January.For the September 2012 flood,all of the SNOTEL sites show zero antecedent snowpack,except for Independence Mine,which had 0.4 inch snow water equivalent (SWE)on September 19,then zero on September 20.Independence Mine is at El 3550 and is far to the south.Table 3.4-1 summarizes the earliest and latest recorded dates for snowpack at the SNOTEL stations.To be counted as snowpack,the recorded snow on the ground must persist on a seasonal basis.There is no FINAL DRAFT Page 3-14 May 2014 -z-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. evidence of a snowpack existing for the August and September calibration storms,other than snow and ice on glaciers. Table 3.4-1.Earliest and Latest Snowpack at SNOTEL Stations Station Name Station In Susitna R.}Elevation Maximum SWE (2)Earliest Day Latest Day Years of Available Snowpack Number |Watershed (1)(feet)(inches)Date with Snowpack |with Snowpack |Data In the Period of Record Anchorage Hillside 4070 No 2,080 18.4 |4/12/2012 |10/6/2009 5/31/2012 8 years:2006 -2013"Bentalit Lodge [1086 |=Yes «|=180.+ «|=124 «*|-ava2012|10/10/2009 | S/e/2008 |--sB years:2006-2013 |_Fairbanks F.0.|1174 [No |450 [14.2 |aizeit901 |ataiig02 |s/20/2013_[31 years:1983-2013 _ Granite Creek 963 No 1,240 77 |ameree1 |921902 |5/14/2013 26 years:1988-2013_IndependenceMine |1091 |"Border |3,550 |23.6 |s/t7/2001 |_10/1/2002 |6/19/2013 |_16 years:1998-2013 _||__IndianPass |948 |No |2350 |40.1 _|5/19/2001 |_a/i7/1g92 |6/27/1985_|_34 years:1980-2013 _|._Monohan Flat (3)_|_1094 |Border |2,710 |LNA}NA |_10/4/2008 |5/25/2013 |6 years:2008 -2013__Mt.Alyeska |1103 |No |1,540 |691 [sate98]torvi903_|79/1980 |_4o years:1973-2013|_MunsonRidge [950 |_No_|3.too |184 |arnsit991 |ariaiigs2 |]erari9e2 |935 years:1981-2013 _|Susitna Valley High 967 Yes 375 18.7 |asts90 |10/1/1997 "5/21/1999 27 years:1988-2013 Tokositna Valley 1089 Yes 850 20.7 |4/27/2008 |10/8/2009 6/3/2013 |.gyears:2006-2013 _| Notes: (1)Items in bold indicate the location is tributary to Watana Dam.Border indicates the station is on or near the watershed border. (2)SWE is snow water equivalent,the depth of melted snow in a snowpack. (3)Snow water equivalent data is unavailable for the Monahan Flat SNOTEL site. The lowest level of the Susitna watershed glaciers are at about El 3000.It was assumed that there is zero antecedent snow below E!3000,and then essentially unlimited snow (glacier)above El 4000 feet in the sub-basins that have glaciers.The other sub-basins with higher elevations without glaciers would be assumed to have zero snow water equivalents for the August and September calibration floods. Because snow course data antecedent to the individual June calibration floods showed considerable variation relative to the average October through April precipitation,several individual snow course stations were used to distribute the June calibration flood antecedent snowpack in conjunction with the precipitation maps.Table 3.4-2 presents a summary of the antecedent snowpack used for the June calibration storms.Because snow course data is not available after about May 1,and because no data is available at the SNOTEL gages for the time period of the calibration floods,snowpack is considered to be a calibration parameter. FINAL DRAFT Page 3-15 _May 2014 Z ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. Table 3.4-2.Antecedent Snowpack Snow Water Equivalent as a Percent of Average Oct-April Precipitation Sub-Basin June June June Number 1964 1971 1972 -1 _|85%_|110%_|120%_|2 _|85%|110%|120%_ |.3 _|85%|110%|120% __4 _85%110%120% _8 85%110%120% |6 |_85%110%420% |7 _|85%|110%|120%| 8 85%110%120% _9 _85%110%120% 10 50%110%150% |4+70%|110%150% _12 50%20%150% _13 90%10%150% |_14_|90%70%150% |_15_|90%70%150% 16 90%70%150% _17 90%70%150% |_18_|85%_90%90% |_19_|_85%_90%90% _20.85%70%90% _21 _85%90%90% 22 85%70%120% |_23_|_85%70%120% 24 85%70%120% _25 _85%90%120% 26 85%90%120% |_27_|50%|100%|120%| _28 _50%100%120% 29 _50%100%120% 30 50%90%120% |_31_|_50%90%|120% 32 50%70%120% _33 50%70%120% 34 50%70%120% FINAL DRAFT Page 3-16 May 2014 --z-) ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. 4.UNIT HYDROGRAPH DEVELOPMENT 4.1 Approach and Tasks The Susitna River basin is considered to be a case where sufficient streamflow data of - satisfactory quality are available for confidence in developing unit hydrographs.Five USGS gages have been in operation for various periods within or not far downstream of the area tributary to Watana Dam.All five USGS gages were used in the calibration and verification of unit hydrograph parameters.Snowpack data is available at several stations (see section 3.4 and 8.3)and is considered to be adequate.Although long-term meteorological stations (precipitation, temperature,and wind speed data)are absent within the watershed tributary to Watana Dam,a sophisticated meteorological model provided adequate data using stations near the watershed. As discussed in Section 2.1,the HEC-1 Flood Hydrograph Package (USACE HEC,1998)was chosen as the watershed model to perform the calibration and verification runs and the final PMP runoff and PMF routing runs. Eleven floods were considered for runoff model calibration and verification,with six being selected.Because the Susitna River is subject to floods having two distinctly different predominant origins,snowmelt in the spring and rainfall in the summer,three floods of each type were selected for calibration and verification.Preference for selection of historic floods for calibration and verification was based on: e the largest floods of record e the floods with data at the most USGS gages e the floods with the most complete flow data near the peak flow e distribution of floods in the May through October potential flood season The floods selected for calibration included the following: e Spring floods -June 1964,June 1971,and June 1972 e Summer floods -August 1967,August 1971,and September 2012 The available USGS gaging station data for these floods are plotted on Figures 4.1-1 through 4.1-6.These plots provide an indication of the relative magnitude and timing of flows at the various gaging stations for the period both before and after the peak flows. FINAL DRAFT Page 4-1 May 2014 Za ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. "Pt tt |et =--Susitna River at Gold Creek 90,000 --Susitna River at Cantwell YUN -Susitna River at Denali 80,000 A N --Maclaren River at Paxson 70,000 \a \60,000 vAe N\ &/IN£0,000 a NOI2oafern|re IN oe 40,000 fo "|M4 30,000 /-- 20,000 ji10,000 Y ]amame4-7 rm 0 Ja S222 8 FF FREER EEE ERE EEE ES Figure 4.1-1.June 1964 Recorded Flows at USGS Gages 80,000 70,000 vA --Susitna River at Gold Creek|--Susitna River at Cantwell 60,000 |1 River at Paxson 50,000 | a2 |,=40,000 7 NXco] i LS)«r™ 30,000F - 20,000 S77 aoe _ .pon,|I ae ee10,000 ooa -™ 8 e &&&F &&&&&&&&F &&®&&-&&&&&2 2 @ b4 2 2 2 2 ba KJ 2 4 4 2 2 2 2 ©2 2 2 Sse¢eits ei ee Sf eg ES FF ERE E°Ss 6 S&S o oso Ss @ 3 os «o org o os o os @ oO Figure 4.1-2.August 1967 Recorded Flows at USGS Gages FINAL DRAFT Page 4-2 May 2014 -Z-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. ™[TT 1 --Susitna River at Gold Creek --Susitna River at Cantwell / --Susitna River at Denali --Maclaren River at Paxson 50,000 /VfLN \40,000 //\N 30,000 Y VA 'XQ '4 \ 60,000 Flow(cfs)20,000 10,000 La]-<|a a pSaa« Ltt |a ae wlenee t) 5 §§&&&&&&§&§&&&&&&&g s g s S g g s =S$s ¢3 FS 5 3 $$6 6 &&§6 6 §§§§&§&$&&&& Figure 4.1-3.June 1971 Recorded Flows at USGS Gages 90,000 80,000 --Susitna River at Gold Creek =-Susitna River at Cantwell70,000 - Susitna River at Denali /--Maclaren River at Paxson 60,000 |\N \@ 50,000 \g 7].z |3 |Niz40.000 ]]V+0.000 LV In TAKEN ,A 7 y N N\7 NLS /\N\a am 4 MS /iN NS MR20,000 y 7 va N NIALn|sei4 ne, a L_-VA KA10,000 oe aeA Ln! nT 7 i)65565 55 55 &5 &§5 SBS &FSFE EEESE SESkRSERREEBERBESEESESEERSEERBEBSSERERREESSSSSSSSSESSeresEeSs Figure 4.1-4.August 1971 Recorded Flows at USGS Gages FINAL DRAFT Page 4-3 May 2014 --z-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA'1-022 13-1402-REP-031414Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. _|||tf = Susitna River at Gold Creek 70,000 A --Susitna River at CantwellY|one Susitna River at DenaliyyMaclarenRiveratPaxson 60,000 a ./)| \ JOAN IN30,000 a[7 y7 N NO 7Flow(cfs)LA NX PL Pal ral \0,020,000 ia a 10,000 77 Jeeel - - 9 N Nn N N N Nn N N N N N Nn N N N N nN NN N2§&§F&F FF ees Ee EE EEE EE58€€$8 &$=F £€€&&F&F F §8 2 6 §&5 5 5 5 5s §5 8 8 5 §=€§8 $8 &§& Figure 4.1-5.June 1972 Recorded Flows at USGS Gages 80,000 a a -Susitna River at Gold Creek 70,000 A ---Susitna River at Denali |rN(|\-Susitna River above Tsusena Cr.60,000 - §0,000 /wNgs 3 2 |IN"on /]Nra 30,000 N IN'NJN\NI 20,000 -NY i ---.10,000 |pa nal /MN -_-Let ”SS Renee pee 0 Figure 4.1-6.September 2012 Recorded Flows at USGS Gages FINAL DRAFT Page 4-4 May 2014 Za ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. 4.2 Preliminary Estimates of Clark Parameters Preliminary estimates of Clark parameters were available at some locations from previous studies.Initial estimates for the Clark parameters were made by approximately simulating the results of the previous Susitna PMF studies.However,the calibration and verification process for the unit hydrographs provided revised Clark parameter values.The preliminary estimates for Clark parameters were not used in the final studies. 4.3 Estimate of Infiltration During Historic Floods The initial abstraction and uniform loss rate method of simulating infiltration was used for the rainfall dominated summer floods and the exponential loss rate method was used for the snowmelt dominated spring floods.Initial abstractions of 0.06 to 0.08 inch and uniform loss rates of 0.02 to 0.04 inch/hour were used for most of the sub-basins.As shown in Table 1.5-3, 90%of the Susitna watershed tributary to the Watana Dam site (Harza-Ebasco 1984)is covered with soils having the lower infiltration rates (USBR 1974)of Hydrologic Soil Groups C and D. The initial abstraction and uniform loss rate parameters are very low for soils of these types and would represent wet antecedent conditions in the watershed. 4.4 Summer Sub-Basin Unit Hydrograph Parameters Development of unit hydrograph parameters for the Clark unit hydrograph method involves the two parameters Tc (time of concentration)and R (a storage coefficient).A frequently used concept for calibration is that the ratio R/(Tc +R)tends to be fairly constant on a regional basis. Due to the diverse topography and other factors in the Susitna River basin,a constant ratio was not always the result in the calibration.The final Clark unit hydrograph parameters resulting from the calibration effort are summarized in Table 4.4-1.The same final Clark unit hydrograph parameters were used for all floods,both spring and summer. On all of the figures in this section,USGS recorded flow data is in blue and simulated flow is in red.Average daily precipitation for the area tributary to the gage is shown at the top of the plots. Scale differences in precipitation between the spring and summer floods should be noted.For all summer runs,snowpack is included only in glaciated areas. Recorded USGS streamflow data is available for the September 2012 flood at the Denali, Tsusena Creek,and Gold Creek gages.The Tsusena Creek gage is essentially at the Watana Dam site and because it was recently established,September 2012 is the only calibration and verification flood that has data at the Tsusena Creek gage.At the time of its occurrence,the September 2012 flood was the largest recorded flood at Gold Creek in the previous 40 years,the 6"largest flood of record at Gold Creek,and by far the largest flood ever recorded in September FINAL DRAFT Page 4-5 May 2014 -yO SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414 at the Gold Creek gage.The September 2012 flood was the 4"highest flood of record at the Denali gage. As shown on Figures 4.4-1 through 4.4-3,the agreement between recorded and simulated peak flows,hydrograph volumes,timing of the peak flows,and general hydrograph shape are all notably excellent.In addition,no adjustments were made to precipitation,wind speed, temperature,or snowpack in any sub-basin.It is noted that the September 2012 flood is the only calibration or verification flood with available precipitation radar data (NEXRAD)and has the best available meteorological data.From this a significant conclusion is made;highly accurate data input results in the best runoff model simulations. 0.025,000 oO |el Fy if ed -||| 20,000 08 é \ 15,000 |N 16 gA" _22\= s c 933x'a 40,000 248j)iN : Af |mcrae |R5,000 7,S/-e-USGS Susitna at Denali SS!32Zs-#-Simulated Denali [a ,LZPooneen 0 40 9/14 9/15 9/16 97 98 919 9/20 9/21 9/22 9/23 9/24 9/25 9/26 9/27 9/28 9/29 9/30 Figure 4.4-1.September 2012 Calibration,Susitna River near Denali FINAL DRAFT Page 4-6 May 2014 a ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. 70,000 -0.0|f]i a7; 60,000 ; 04 mms 50,000 0.8 g =aq 0,000 12 2s= 3 83\s 30,000 N 165aNE 20,000 20 a wm Avg Daily Precip (in)=, 40,000 -P -eUSGS Susitna above Tsusena [-24anneal-#Simulated Tsusena ()|28 9/14 9/15 9/16 9/17 9/18 9/19 9/20 9/21 9/22 9/23 9/24 9/25 9/26 9/27 9/28 9/29 9/30 Figure 4.4-2.September 2012 Calibration,Susitna River above Tsusena Creek 80,000 na |"TH "oh -|-0.0 70,000 +-___}-_Biet .7\\03 60,000 \08bid\50,000 \03 oe .aN i2= o40,000 \1.2 6 8 aN s"a 3a30,000 Sn 15a 20,000 BU mam Avg Daily Precip (in)Se --18"4 "USGS Susitna at Gold Creek =.7 "=Simulated Gold Creek * 10,000 + -#== 21 0 24 9/14 9/15 9/16 9/17 9/18 9/19 9/20 9/21 9/22 9/23 9/24 9/25 9/26 9/27 9/28 9/29 9/30 Figure 4.4-3.September 2012 Calibration,Susitna River at Gold Creek FINAL DRAFT Page 4-7 May 2014 Zz ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. The August 1967 flood was the 5"highest peak flow at Gold Creek and Cantwell,and the third highest peak recorded on the Maclaren River.The August 1967 storm was also significant because it became the controlling storm for development of the Probable Maximum Precipitation both in regards to development of total precipitation depth and for the critical temporal distribution of the precipitation. As shown on Figures 4.4-4 through 4.4-6,the agreement between simulated and recorded peak flows,hydrograph volume,and general hydrograph shape is good at all three locations.The most notable differences appear to be on the rising limb of the hydrograph,but the overall calibration is certainly acceptable.Precipitation was factored upwards from initial estimates for sub-basins at higher elevations,an effect noted as needed for runoff model calibration by others independently doing Susitna River runoff model studies (Wolken 2013).A factored adjustment means that all data in a time-series were adjusted by the same factor. 8,000 a -a a |=|=e 00 7,000oN ,IN|iae.88Ss.=Ny,Sw E e NN £ =4,000 4 a 168 =ee on mS |s 'o 3,000 20a 2,000 was Avg Daily Precip (in)24 -eUSGS Maclaren River at Paxton #-Simulated Maciaren1,000 2.8 |tt . 8/8 89 8/10 aii 82 8/13 8/14 ais 8/16 87 8g 8/19 8/20 8/21 Figure 4.4-4.August 1967 Calibration,Maclaren River near Paxson FINAL DRAFT Page 4-8 May 2014 Zz ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO .AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. 40,000 a -al ee 00 35,000 s |/Ps 03 hse : ;a aN30,000 :06 )y NAN 25,000 INN 09-/*/™_ECc4= 2 //c =20,000 129 8 ™ sgiLsé><8i 15,000 150 man Avg Daily Precip (in) -eUSGS Susitna River near 10,000 Cantwell 18 5,000 24 0)2.4 8/8 89 8/0 at 8/2 8/13 8/14 Bis 86 87 88 Bg 8/20 8/21 Figure 4.4-5.August 1967 Calibration,Susitna River near Cantwell 80,000 -A La Le FT |0.0 70,000 4 \03 60,000 NS 06 50,000 NS N 09 =F (=) z £ 2 Ny q < =40,000 oy 12.8So .A SN :Pe) 30,000 yg ra a se a mas Avg Daily Precip (in) 20,000 -+-USGS Susitna at Gold Creek 18 -®Simulated Gold Creek 10,000 : 24 0 24 88 8/9 8/10 ait 812 8/13 84 8/15 8/16 ani7 aig 8/9 8/20 8/21 Figure 4.4-6.August 1967 Calibration,Susitna River at Gold Creek FINAL DRAFT Page 4-9 May 2014 Ze SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414 Table 4.4-1.Clark Unit Hydrograph Parameters by Sub-Basin Sub-Basin Te "R R/(Tc+R) --Lo-2868 _]__3t__}_0.55 _ -2 2 286 _}__3t__}_0.55._pi3S_|_386 _|_41 _|_052 _|Lo 4 1 _60 _}_39 _ft ot -2-| 160__)__389__}_0.71 _ -& }_16.0__)_389 __}_07 _aene O°ne On) Lo 8 Lt 00 _|_24 _ft om -9%.|_629__|__44__|__0.41 _10 __}_62.9 _)__44__j_0.41LSesOe<2 OR ROLP12)_|640 |AL13_jo 723__j__61__}__0.46__14 __j_7238__)_61 __|__0.46__ Pi 45}640 _|_68 LL 2 LP46_|4 _L _B dL 2 -@_fe 7238)_8t_Ly _0.46__18 __|_43.8 _}_37 __}_0.46 _ ee a fi 20,0}438 |8h 046 _ 21 43.8 37 0.46 _22 __}_438 _|__37__|_0.46 _|_23 |75 _46 |084 |ee ee ce ee-25 __}_27.7 _|__23 }_0.45 _26 _}_35.0 | _29__}__0.45|_27__|_350_|_29 |0s ||28 |380 _|ao ts |_29 __|_26.2 _|__22__|_0.46.__30 |39.0 J -21 {0.35|_31 _|390 _|tt 8 ||_32._|390 _|att 8 |_33 |}30.8 6]17 |086 34 30.8 17 0.36 FINAL DRAFT Page 4-10 May 2014 --Za-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. 4.5 Spring Sub-Basin Unit Hydrograph Parameters Final Clark unit hydrograph parameters were the same for both the summer and spring calibration floods.Streamflow data was available for all four of the long-term USGS gages for the June 1971 flood.The June 1971 flood is the 7"largest partial duration flood (considers all floods of record,not just annual peak flows)of record at Gold Creek and has the 3™highest partial duration flow of record at Cantwell.The recorded floods generally exhibit a classic hydrograph shape. . From Figures 4.5-1 through 4.5-4,it is clear that precipitation is a negligible factor in the peak flow as total precipitation is quite small and most of it occurs after the peak of the hydrograph. The great majority of the runoff must result from snowmelt.The agreement between peak flows, hydrograph volume,and hydrograph shape are generally good.Timing of the simulated peak flow at Denali is a little early,but it makes no significant difference at downstream stations. Adjustments were made to the initial estimate of snowpack,as well as factored adjustments to precipitation,and wind speed for several sub-basins. 12,000 -_0.0 10,000 a kt 0.1 > .AL\\YY a \iedix)LY A aoaa= [z} >& 2 = RS) }8,000 oN 035 ra Wa =u aLa\NS 32JaAa 4,000 a 0.4 Le mm Avg Daily Precip (in)-_-e -+-USGS Susitna River at Denali -#-Simulated Denali 2,000 05 0 06 6/3 6/4 65 646 67 6/8 69 6/10 6/11 6N2 6/13 64 6/15 6N6 67 Figure 4.5-1.June 1971 Calibration,Susitna River near Denali FINAL DRAFT Page 4-11 ,May 2014 -yw ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 ; 13-1402-REP-031414Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. 6,000 s/o)7/0 q 0.0 5,000 an 04 4,000 L)\0.2Y,NX = Ca//Nw E fs] z =2,000 A ==p 3 &:"Ss 3 Wa Fa3TAwanAvgDailyPrecip(in)'32,000 LO Li -*-USGS Maclaren River at Paxson 04wea-@-Simulated Maclaren -- 1,000 0.5 1)06 6/3 6/4 65 -6 67 6/8 6/9 e088 G4 6/2 6436/14 615 616 6/7 Figure 4.5-2.June 1971 Calibration,Maclaren River near Paxson 50,000 0.00AO)8 45,000 0.05 /\40,000 :AAas 0.10 35,000 N 0.15 \; 30,000 0.20 ® 3 :V4 \: 2 //|_-©25,000 0.25 6:Ze ra \Ps §»a 20,000 Ly a Dsa-1 0.30 8p- --L_a. 45,000 AA 0.35HYamAvgDailyPrecip(in) 10,000 :LI -eUSGS Susitna River near Cantwell 0.40,i-Bea -#Simulated Cantweil 5,000 0.45 0 0.506/3 6/4 6S 66 67 6/8 68 610 «6/11 sOH2sCGNBsCiaSN4 NS NGC. Figure 4.5-3.June 1971 Calibration,Susitna River near Cantwell FINAL DRAFT Page 4-12 May 2014 --Z-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. 200 a SN A wm Avg Daily Precip (in) 20,000 yOa --USGS Susitna at Gold Creek 10,000 06Flow(cfs)vA/Precipitation(Inches)N\[/0.5 -@Simulated Gold Creek 63 6/4 6/5 66 6/7 6/8 6/9 60 6/1 62 63 6/14 65 66 67 Figure 4.5-4.June 1971 Calibration,Susitna River at Gold Creek Streamflow data was available for all four of the long-term USGS gages for the June 1972 flood. The June 1972 flood represents the 3rd largest peak flow of record at Gold Creek,the 4th largest at Cantwell,and the 6th largest on the Maclaren River. From Figures 4.5-5 through 4.5-8 it can be seen that precipitation is not a major factor in the flood hydrograph as most of the runoff results from snowmelt.The agreement between simulated and recorded peak flows at all four gages is good.The simulation of hydrograph shape at the downstream stations at Cantwell and Gold Creek is better than at the upstream stations at Denali and on the Maclaren River where glacier melt would be a more significant factor.It is noted that the HEC-1 program does not have a specific glacier simulation routine, only snowmelt simulation methods.Adjustments were made to the initial estimate of snowpack, as well as factored adjustments to precipitation,and wind speed for several sub-basins.The overall simulation of the June 1972 flood was considered to be acceptable. FINAL DRAFT Page 4-13 May 2014 --Z- ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. 16,000 soem ;0.0-a7.|2 oo ot ran ' -J /<Cs os [fox 8,000 /» 6,000 :L S™NYLFlow(cfs):oaaPrecipitation(inches)L I 1.0 Le mam Avg Daily Precip (in) A --USGS Susitna River at Denali 4,000 4 1.2=-#-Simulated Denali os 2,000 14 ie)16 67 68 6/9 6/10 ent 612 6/13 614 615 6/6 6/17 6/18 6/19 6/20 6/21 Figure 4.5-5.June 1972 Calibration,Susitna River near Denali 8,000 0 aa is "my °° 7,000 z 0.2 5.000 ZN , 04rN5,000 LO.yA -[. / 3,000 L NS iS WA wan Avg Daily Precip (in)7idoFlow(cfs)/Precipitation(inches)il2,000 wf -*-USGS Maclaren River at Paxson 12 ie ; -&Simulated Maclaren 4,000 14 0 16 67 6/8 69 6/10 6/11 6/12 6/13 64 6/15 6/16 67 6/18 6/19 6220 6/21 Figure 4.5-6.June 1972 Calibration,Maclaren River near Paxson FINAL DRAFT Page 4-14 May 2014 SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414 40,000 =r -CI 'oi 0.0 35,000 4wy,\0.2 30,000 7 7 INN 0425,000 ff N .06 = a my =2 = }20,000 Li N -08 &8 W4 NY 2 [=] @D 15,000 a SS at toe ba 7 mas Avg Daily Precip (in) 40,000 -e-USGS Susitna River near Cantwell 412 -®Simulated Cantwell 5,000 14 0 16 67 6/8 6/9 6100 «G11 ss N2sNSaGN4 SNS Ss NGSCSIT,-ssSNBSCND.-SssawD-sCG21 Figure 4.5-7,June 1972 Calibration,Susitna River near Cantwell 80,000 7 -pugg en P Tl -_-0.0 70,000 LY A 0.2 60,000 7,PS 4 \0.4 50,000 VA /\06 > o = zg ya ==40,000 vA.os &=""3s3yWaXN5"Oe |NA 39a 30,000 4 N 10LyN| Lo]ee waa Avg Daily Precip (in) | .20,000 o+USGS Susitna at Gold Creek 1.2 -a-Simulated Gold Creek 10,000 14 0 166i7686961061612613644615646G6M768696206216/22 Figure 4.5-8.June 1972 Calibration,Susitna River at Gold Creek FINAL DRAFT Page 4-15 May 2014 -Z-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. 5.UNIT HYDROGRAPH VERIFICATION 5.1 Summer Flood Verification HEC-1 model runs for both the summer and spring floods were made without any changes to unit hydrograph parameters or loss rates that were used for the corresponding season in the calibration runs.On all of the figures in this section,USGS recorded flow data is in blue and simulated flow is in red.Average daily precipitation for the area tributary to the gage is shown at the top of the plots.Scale differences in precipitation between the spring and summer floods should be noted.A factored adjustment to increase the initial estimate of precipitation to sub-basins tributary to the Maclaren and Denali gages was made,with a slight reduction to precipitation at a few lower elevation sub-basins. Streamflow data is available at four USGS gages for the August 1971 flood.The August 1971 flood was significant in that it was the largest flood of record at the Cantwell,Denali,and Maclaren River gages,and the third largest flood of record at Gold Creek (including the 2013 flood).As shown on Figures 5.1-1 through 5.1-4,agreement between simulated and recorded peaks and volumes were generally very good,with the exception of the first few days of the rising limb of the hydrograph at the Denali gage.During August 4-8,there may have been a process occurring above the Denali gage such as an ice dam that is beyond the simulation capability of the runoff model.Based on the verification run,the unit hydrograph parameters were accepted. FINAL DRAFT Page 5-1 May 2014 Za ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. 40,000 ie 0.0 35,000 -----_}-_|0.2 30,000 0.4 25,000 06 =a = [s) c 2L c20,000 08 S 8 o\|guna\\g 15,000 NX K 100 10,000 NN NN 12Va __mam Avg Daily Precip (in)(ed *-USGS Susitna River at Denali5,000 -_14 -®Simulated Denali 0)|||16 8/4 85 8/6 a7 8/8 89 8/10 8/1 82 813 84 8/15 8/6 8ii7 Figure 5.1-1.August 1971 Verification,Susitna River near Denali -0.0 mine i uA' .=0.4 f =._\08 6,000 om 12NX 3 5,000 \L\16 Eao=s N\feeoN Fg000rNN\.3nw420=SS NX 3eePDTAé3,000 .=24 [ .tama Avg Daily Precip (in) 2,000 -«-USGS Maclaren River at Paxson 28 -#Simulated Maclaren 1,000 3.2 0 36 .8/4 8/5 86 a7 88 8/9 80 ait 82 8/13 a4 8s ane 87 Figure 5.1-2.August 1971 Verification,Maclaren River near Paxson FINAL DRAFT Page 5-2 May 2014 Za ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. 13-1402-REP-031414 60,000 ime]t py 0.0 50,000 f i\0.4 i HOW /7 | 40,000 j /,bes 08 = NN Aeway,NON ae|Flow(cfs)Precipitation(inches)20,000 > mus Avg Daily Precip (in) -eUSGS Susitna River near Cantwell -#Simulated Cantwell 10,000 2.0 8/4 8/5 8/6 ar 8/8 8/9 8/10 8/11 8/12 8/13 8/14 8/15 8/6 8/17 Figure 5.1-3.August 1971 Verification,Susitna River near Cantwell 90,000 ng .ae a ae |0.0 80,000 ' 0.2JT70,000 ; 7 \0.4 60,000 u V4 N |06 '}|!\3 Qo @ 50.000 J ose 2 a 4 ;WO 5>:€LAN Ke) 2 /NA SN 3 ix 40,000 7 Ny x 103.9 -2AGiNQ.NN,aA30,000 4 7 s 12 oa a was Avg Daily Precip (in) 20,000 -*-USGS Susitna at Gold Creek 14 -@-Simulated Gold Creek 10,000 1.6 0 1.8 8/4 8/5 8/6 87 8/8 89 8/10 ait a2 8/13 arid ans 8/16 87 Figure 5.1-4.August 1971 Verification,Susitna River at Gold Creek FINAL DRAFT Page 5-3 May 2014 -Z-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. 5.2 Spring Flood Streamflow data was available at four USGS gages for the June 1964 verification flood.The June 1964 flood is significant because it was the largest peak flow and the largest daily average flow of record at the Gold Creek gage and it was the second largest flood of record at Cantwell. It was also the 10"largest flood of record on the Maclaren River,and the largest flow of the year at Denali. No changes were made to unit hydrograph parameters or loss rates from those used in the spring calibration floods.Adjustments to the initial estimate of snowpack,or factored adjustments to temperature or wind speeds are acceptable within appropriate ranges.Agreement between simulated and recorded peak flow is generally very good,but the rising limb of the hydrograph exhibited a sharp one-day rise in flow that could not be replicated with the model.The constant flow rates at USGS gages through May 31 give the appearance of being estimated data.Based on the verification run,the unit hydrograph parameters were accepted. 18,000 tl a fl oO waar 0.0 46,000 ow . a / SX14,000 i>vA DN bY 02 12,000 vu SN /LN _'4 MA =@o = =10,000 os fg/: g /2 ix 8,000 05% TA was Avg Daily Precip (in)a 6,000 y - 06A e-USGS Susitna River at Denali -#-Simulated Denali 4,000 al 07.ial |2,000 08 0 09 6/27 5/28 «68/29 8/30 5/31 6 6/2 6/3 6/4 6/5 68 67 68 6g 610 6/11 612 6/13 Figure 5.2-1.June 1964 Verification,Susitna River near Denali FINAL DRAFT Page 5-4 _May 2014 Za ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. 8,000 a _ 7,000 ..E A\|-!|0.2 000 rand N.|0.4/NN ea wm Avg Daily Precip (in)y 08Flow(cfs)-8TanePrecipitation(inches)2,000 LO -e-USGS Maclaren River at Paxson #Simulated Maclaren|al ft 1.0 1,000 =_aa { °12 5/27 5/28/29)8/30 5/31 6 6/2 6/3 6/4 6/5 66 67 6/8 69 610 6/11 G12 6/13 Figure 5.2-2.June 1964 Verification,Maclaren River near Paxson FINAL DRAFT Page 5-5 May 2014 -yw ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. 60,000 _-f wo |if]ot mero 0.0 50,000 0.2 Vd)oo 40,000 /7 -04 NN 2gS|= 30,000 06 &3 7 E "24: : ,a.aW,wma Avg Daity Precip (in) 20,000 0.8VA-USGS Susitna River near Cantweil A -#Simulated Cantwell 10,000 ai 1.0 eee 12 5/727 §/28 5/29 5/30 5/31 61 6/2 63 64 65 66 G67 68 69 610 611 612 6/13 Figure 5.2-3.June 1964 Verification,Susitna River near Cantwell 100,000 =a q vane 7g 0.0 90,000 '+0.1 YON80,000 0.2CaN-70,000 a ys SN 03 my60,000 7 04 2 g A VA '; :50,000 08 8 Y NS sa/S 40,000 7 06 8 IN PA wm Avg Daily Precip (in)* 30,000 7 *-USGS Susitna at Gold Creek 07/PA "Simulated Gold Creek 20,000 by 08/=|_|10,000 tla 09 -/| 1.0 5/27 5/28 «5129 «8/30 «5/31 6s-ia]siaIB(iiaGC (iaHCiCCiCiCCBCC.sCSITOssG1 GZ GB Figure 5.2-4.June 1964 Verification,Susitna River at Gold Creek FINAL DRAFT Page 5-6 May 2014 Za ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. 6.PROBABLE MAXIMUM PRECIPITATION The applicable available National Weather Service (formerly the U.S.Weather Bureau)Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP)guidance document is Probable Maximum Precipitation and Rainfall-Frequency Data for Alaska,Technical Paper No.47 (Weather Bureau 1963).Technical Paper No.47 is applicable to areas up to 400 square miles and durations up to 24 hours.Because the drainage area at the Watana Dam site is over 5,000 square miles and current standards call for the PMP to have a duration of at least 72 hours,development of a site-specific PMP was necessary. The site-specific PMP was developed by Applied Weather Associates,working under subcontract to MWH.This section briefly summarizes the results of the site specific PMP analysis.A complete report on development of the site-specific PMP is included as Appendix A. 6.1.Probable Maximum Precipitation Data The applicable PMP for any watershed will vary by season,duration,and areal extent.There is a seasonal variation of the PMP and the month or season having the greatest depth is referred to as the all season PMP.The all season PMP applies from mid-July through mid-August period for the Susitna River basin.The monthly reduction factors or ratios of the PMP for other months to the all season PMP are summarized on Table 6.1-1. Table 6.1-1,Mid-Month PMP Seasonality Ratios Month Ratio Jan.|_= J _Feb |_= _Mar_[|0.30|_Apr_|0.60_May _|_0.83Jun_|_0.94 Jul |._1.00 |Aug_|1.00Sep_|_0.92Oct__|_0.80|Nov_|_0.65_Dec - The Susitna-Watana PMP was developed for a period of 216 hours (9 days).The all season PMP depths for three alternative temporal distributions for various durations from 1-hour to 216 hours FINAL DRAFT Page 6-1 May 2014 Zz SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414 by sub-basin are presented in Table 6.1-2 through Table 6.1-4.The temporal and accumulated precipitation for the three alternative distributions of the PMP is shown on Figure 6.1-1 through Figure 6.1-3.The rainfall is concentrated near the center of the time sequence developed from the August 1967 storm in a manner that should be critical for development of the PMF. Table 6.1-2.All Season PMP by Sub-Basin for Various Durations -August 1967 Temporal Distribution Drainage |All Season |All Season |All Season |All Season |All Season Sub-basin}Area 1-hr PMP |6-hr PMP |24-hr PMP |72-hr PMP |216-hr PMP (sq.mi.)(inches)(inches)(inches)(inches)(inches) Pot eb 526_|060 _|247 _|_6.09 _|_9.95 _|_13-83 _ |}2 1 2264 |050 _{|2.04 _|_5.02 |_821 _|_11.41 _ _3_|295.4 |037-|153 |3.77_|_6.16 8.56 4.$1493 |)0.56 )_231 |_569_|_931_|_12,93.| 5 354.0 0.44 1.79 4.43 7.24 |10.06 _ |6 _{1534 |048 _|_197 _]|_486 _|794 _|_11.03 _ J7_1875 |_032 J 431 4 323.|5.29 4 _735_ _8_|_1899 |_0.39 |_160__}_394_|_644_|_895__ |9 _|187.7 |041 [169 |4.18 _|_6.83 _9.50 |10 _|3268 |_0.39 _|_161 _[|_3.98 _}|_651 _|_9.04 _ A1__}273.5 -}_O41 |1.67_|_4.220 |_6 78_|_9.35__| -12,0 547 J 036 |_146 |_361 |_5.90 |_821 |13 _|2225 |034 _|_139 _|344 |562 |_781 _ |14 _|135-1 |033 _[136 _}|_335 [|_548 _|_762 _ _15 |185.1 |036 |150,|369 |_6.03 8.38 -416 |164.3 |_0.37 J_451 |_3.78_|_610_|_848__ |17 _|253.2,|035 [|145 _}|357 [|584 _[_812 _ |18 |100.0 |._043 |4.78 _}4.39 _[_7.18 _|_998 _ -49 |_202.2 |_0.50 }_204 |_5.04_|_8.24 |_11.45 _|20,|_363 |_0.37 |_453_J 37_4_616_}_8.56_||21 |162.7 |050 _|2.06 _|_5.07 _}|_8.29 _|_11.52 _ |22 _|920_|036 _|_147 _|_363 _|_593 _|_825 _ 23.|1742 |041 |_4.70 |_4.19 |_686_|_9.53_|_24.|_1874 |0.43_|_4.78 |_4.38 |_7.47_|_9.96_|25 _|184.0 |061 |252 |623 |10.18 _14.15 |26 _|2229 |0.54 |223 |_5.50 _|_899 _|_1249 _27_|_2696 |_047 |_1.94 |_4.78 |_7-81_|_10.85._| 28.|2185 |052 )_213_|_5.26_|_860_|_11.96 _ 29 36.8 0.43 1.75 4.31 7.05 9.80 Total/Avg.|5168.2 0.43 1.78 4.40 7.19 10.00 FINAL DRAFT Page 6-2 May 2014 SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414 Table 6.1-3.All Season PMP by Sub-Basin for Various Durations -August 1955 Temporal Distribution Drainage |All Season |All Season |All Season |All Season |}All Season Sub-basin|Area 1-hr PMP |6-hrPMP |24-hr PMP |72-hr PMP |216-hr PMP (sq.mi.)(inches)(inches)(inches)(inches)(inches) |1 _|626 |060 -|193 _|_383 _|_7.64 _|_13.83 _ |2 _|2264 |_os0 _|_159 _|3.16 |631 _|14.41 _ 3 295.4 0.37 1.20 2.37 4.73 8.56 - 4.J 1493 J_056 |481 |_3.58 |_7.15_|_12.93_| |5 |3540 |044 |140 |2.79 |_5.56 _|_10.06 _ |6_|1534 |048 |_154 |306 _|_6.10 _|_11.03 _ 7 ji 8S J 032 4 4.03 |_204 |406 fj 7.35_| 8__|189.9 _}_0.39 J 4.25_|_2.48 |_4.95_|_8.95__| 1 9 Lb 1827,|041 >483 _1 263 _L _5.25 _|9.50 _|10_|3268 |039 |126 |_251 _}|_5.00 _|_9.04 _ -At |273.5 |041 |1.31 |259)|517 |935 | 12.|_747 J_036 |415 |2270 454 |821 |_13 2225 |034 |109 |2.16 _|432 _|_781 _|14 |135.1 |033 |106 |211 |421 |_762 _-15_|_185.1 |_0.36 |4.17 |232 |_463_|_8.3816_|164.3 _|_037_|_4.18 |_235.|_469_|_848__||17_|253-2)035 |1.13 2 |225 |449 |_8.12 _ |_18 100.0.|0.43 {|139 |(277 _[5.52 _|_9.98 _19 |2022 |_0.50_J _4.60 |_3.47_|_633_J _11.45 | 20.|_363 f_037 J _1.20,|_237 |_4.73_|_8.56_|| 24_|162.7,|0.50 |_1.61 |}3.19 _ |6387 _|_11-52 _|22 _|920_]036 |1.15 |228 |456 _|_8.25 _ 23.|174.2 1 O41 J _4.338_|_264 |5.27 |_9.53_ 24 |187.4 |}_0.43_|_4.39_|_276 |5.51_|_9.96__| |25 _1 1840 |O67 |198 _|392 _|_782 _|_14.15 _ |26|2229 |O54 |174 _|346 [|6.91 _|_12.49 _ _27_|_2696 |_0.47_|_1.52 |_3.01 |_6.00_|_10.85 _| -28 |2185 |}_0.520 |_41.67_|_3.31_|681 |_11.96 29 36.8 0.43 1.37 2.72 5.42 9.80 Total/Avg.|5168.2 0.43 1.40 2.77 5.53 10.00 FINAL DRAFT Page 6-3 May 2014 Zz SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414 Table 6.1-4.All Season PMP by Sub-Basin for Various Durations -September 2012 Temporal Distribution Drainage j All Season |All Season |All Season |All Season |All Season Sub-basin|Area 1-hr PMP 6-hr PMP |24-hr PMP |72-hr PMP:|216-hr PMP (sq.mi.)(inches)(inches)(inches)(inches)(inches) 1 52.6 0.60 1.79 3.77 6.40 13.83 |2 |226.4 |050 |_147 {|3.11 |5.28 _|_11-41 _3 295.4 0.37 1.11 2.33 3.96 8.56 - 4_|_1493 |_O56 |_1.67_|_3.52__|_5.99_|_12.93 | 5 354.0 0.44 1.30 2.74 4.66 10.06 Lp 6 _£1534 |048 |142 |3.00 |5.12 _|_11.03 _ J_4 85 J_032_|_095_|_200°|_340 |_7.35__- 8_|_189.9 _|_039 |_41.16_|_244 }_415 |_895__| 9 187.7 0.41 1.23 2.59 4.40 9.50 |10_|93268 |039 [|1.17 |246 |419 _|_9.04 _11 273.5 0.41 1.21 2.55 4.33 9.35 -12_MAT |_0.36 |_1.06 |_223 |_3.80_}_821_|||13 |2225 |034 |1.01 |2.13 |3.62 _|_7.81 _ |14 _|195.1 |0.33 _|0.98 _|_2.07 _|_3.53 _|_7.62 _15 185.1 0.36 1.08 2.28 3.88 8.38 -416 |_184.3 |_90.37 |_4.09_|_231_|_3.93_|_8.48__|17 253.2 0.35 1.05 2.21 3.76 8.12 |18 _|100-0 |043 [|1.29 |2.72 _|462 _|_9.98 _ 19 202.2 0.50 1.48 3.12 5.30 11.45 -20,|_363 J_O37 |411 |_233 |_3.96 |_8.56_|21 162.7 0.50 1.49 3.14 5.34 11.52 _22 92.0_|096 _|106 _|_2.25 |_3.82 |_8.25 _23.|_174.2 |_041 |_4.23 |_259_|441_|_9.53_|240 |1574 |043 |_4.290 |271 |_461_|_9.96 _| 25 184.0 0.61 1.83 3.85 6.55 14.15 |26_|2229]054 |161 |3.40 _|_5.78 _|_12.49 _ 27 269.6 0.47 1.40 2.96 5.03 10.85 28_|_2185 |_052 |_454 |_3.26 |5.54 |_11.962936.8 0.43 1.27 2.67 4.54 9.80 Total/Avg.|5168.2 0.43 1.29 2.72 4.63 10.00 FINAL DRAFT Page 6-4 --Z-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO __AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. $0.35 73oD 5 52£=wm Incremental c 5 0.30 4 6 §3 -Accumulated 5 s =$0.25 5 932 &a _no]2 020 ak3S &é £3£0.15 3 2 0.10 2!Ld0.05 ii 1 Htsoo(tana |toll oun ul020406080180200 Figure 6.1-1.Incremental and Accumulated All Season PMP -August 1967 Temporal Distribution 0.50 10 walncremental J70.35 4 Fz2-Accumulated i 3rz}oO c £ §0.30 Va 6 § 5 saJ|ag0.25 5 8 é |J :2 020 |3s3 8 E338-=z o=o-oaryan;eeadSe>0.05 | oO 22=S-ist-<'<i-té'CSOD 80 "400 120 --«140 160 180 200© Hours Figure 6.1-2.Incremental and Accumulated All Season PMP -August 1955 Temporal Distribution FINAL DRAFT Page 6-5 May 2014 -Z-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. 0.50 10 0.45 IfT 90.40 waaincremental 8 .--Accumulated TS0.35 J 7 IncrementalPrecipitation(inches)oonNworea]obbaoAccumulatedPrecipitation(inches)||Ld |||iall)itl ; 40 60 460 180 200Hours 0.00 4 Figure 6.1-3.Incremental and Accumulated All Season PMP -September 2012 Temporal Distribution Temperature and wind speed are important factors in determining snowmelt rates for the energy budget method.The 216-hour time-series of temperature and wind speed coincident with the PMP time sequences are plotted on Figure 6.1-4.Temperature,which decreases by about 2.6 degrees per 1,000-feet in elevation,is plotted for elevation 2500 feet,the lowest 1,000-foot elevation band tributary to Watana.Wind speed,which increases with elevation,is plotted for an elevation near the average for the watershed at 4,000 feet. In a manner similar to the variation of the PMP by month,the seasonality ratios for air temperature and dew point are summarized on Table 6.1-5 and the seasonality ratios for wind speeds are summarized on Table 6.1-6.The ratios become multiplication factors applied to the all season sequences of air temperature,dew point,and wind speed. FINAL DRAFT Page 6-6 May 2014 -Za-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. 65 25 IN A A60/WV J 20 ml aw,\7 :zs = ©NU 32g s aamVANof\:Fa%E.S50INTiywyNYVAN105JS-Temperature (deg F)at El 2500 feet 45 5 -Wind Speed (mph)at El 4000 feet 40 t t t t it) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 Hours Figure 6.1-4.Temperature and Wind Speed for Period of PMP Rainfall for Seasonality Ratios of 1.00 Table 6.1-5.Air Temperature and Dew Point Seasonality Ratios Date Ratio 1-Apr 0.39 15-Apr_|_0.55.| |4-May |0.69_ 15-May{0.80 1-Jun 0.90 _15-Jun |_0.95|A-dul_|1.00_15-Jul_|_1.00 1-Aug 4.00 15-Aug_|_1.00 1-Sep_|0.94 15-Sep |0.86 _1-0ct |_0.77.| 15-0ct_|_0.64 _ 1-Nov 0.51 FINAL DRAFT Page 6-7 May 2014 Zz ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. Table 6.1-6.Wind Speed Seasonality Ratios Date Ratio _'SJan_}_= 1SFeb|_= |1SMar |1.45_ |15-Apr |1.25_ 15-May_}_1.06 _| _'5-Jun |_0.87 _ |A5-Jul |0.92_ |15-Aug {|_1.00_ A5-Sep|_1.15._]15-Oct|_1.25 _]|15-Nov |1.28_ 15-Dec - 6.2 Candidate Storms for the PMF Based on PMF guidelines,(FERC 2001),the evaluation of two PMF scenarios is required in the area west of the Continental Divide.This includes (a)PMP on 100-yr snowpack,and (b)100-yr precipitation on Probable Maximum Snowpack (FERC,2001,pg.68).PMP seasonality ratios are presented in Table 6.1-1.Because the PMP,100-year snowpack,factors affecting snowmelt, and reservoir initial level can all vary from month to month,the PMF was computed for the critical months that cannot be logically eliminated by evaluation of the PMP,coincident meteorological data,snowpack,initial reservoir level,and historical flood distribution. Development of the 100-year snowpack is discussed in Section 8.3.4.Development of the 100- year precipitation is discussed in Section 8.5. FINAL DRAFT Page 6-8 May 2014 -a-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. 7.LOSS RATES The initial loss and uniform loss rate method of simulating interception of rainfall and infiltration into the ground and the uniform loss rate method for combined rainfall and snowmelt losses were used for calibration of summer floods and for summer PMF runs.As used in a runoff event model such as HEC-1,loss rates effectively means any rainfall or snowmelt that does not reach the river within the time frame of the simulation. Loss rates were initially based on those used in the Harza-Ebasco 1984 study,which identified soil types based on a Soil Conservation Service (1979)study.More current digital soil type classification files are unavailable for the area tributary to the Watana Dam site.As used in the PMF runs,sub-basin 29 had zero losses as it represents the Watana Reservoir water surface area. The rainfall uniform loss rates ranged from 0.02 inch/hour to 0.04 inch/hour.The previous study (Harza-Ebasco 1984)has determined that 48%of the watershed is composed of type C soils, with about 42%of the watershed in type D soils.The Harza-Ebasco assignment of soils to hydrologic soil groups appears to have been done in a conservative manner.For example,a common soil type described as very gravelly,loamy (SO16)or even very gravelly (SO15)was assigned to the type C soil group.Soils described as loamy or clayey without other soil descriptors (IQ1,IQ2)were classified as type D soils.Other soils described as very gravelly without other soil descriptors (1U2,IU3)were classified as type B soils.The soils in the most mountainous areas (RM1)were classified as type D.The recommended range of minimum infiltration rates (FERC 2001)are 0.05 to 0.15 inch/hour for type C soils and 0.00 to 0.05 inch/hour for type D soils (see section 1.5.2).The uniform infiltration rates for the summer floods were confirmed using the HEC-1 during the unit hydrograph calibration. The exponential loss rate method was used for calibration of spring floods and for spring PMF runs.The results of the exponential loss rate method can best be explained from the actual losses calculated during the June 1 PMF run when loss rates would be at their maximum.For the 216- hour PMP storm period,total loss rates (precipitation losses plus snowmelt losses in the HEC-1 output)for the sub-basins averaged 0.032 inch/hour,with a range of 0.018 to 0.044 inch/hour. For the 72-hour period of the most intense PMP rainfall,total loss rates averaged 0.060 inch/hour,with a range of 0.039 to 0.076 inch/hour.These loss rates exclude the reservoir surface area (sub-basin 29),which has zero losses. DRAFT Page 7-1 03/10/14 --Z-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. 8.COINCIDENT HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL AND HYDROLOGICAL )CONDITIONS FOR THE PROBABLE MAXIMUM FLOOD A common definition for the PMF is the flood that may be expected from the most severe combination of critical meteorological and hydrologic conditions that are reasonably possible in the drainage basin under study (FERC 2001).A distinction is drawn between the PMF and the "maximum possible flood”which would result from simultaneously maximizing every possible flood producing factor.The maximum possible flood is not in current use as an inflow design flood in the USA.This chapter addresses conditions coincident to the PMP designed to avoid compounding of conservatism and to provide a reasonable PMF hydrograph given the limitations of basic hydrologic and meteorological data. 8.1 Reservoir Level For Watana Dam,initial reservoir level considerations include both the starting reservoir at the beginning of the PMP,as discussed in the next section,and the reservoir level at which the spillway gates begin to open.The reservoir level at which the spillway gates begin to open is determined in the following Intermediate Flood Operation section. 8.1.1 Starting Reservoir Level As a large storage reservoir with highly seasonal inflows and an electricity demand load that is completely out of phase with the annual Susitna River flow patterns (i.e.reservoir inflows), Watana Reservoir will experience large seasonal fluctuations in water levels.The reservoir will . most frequently be full to the maximum normal operating level at El 2050 during the months of August through October and will typically reach its lowest levels during April or May. The reservoir levels will also be dependent on the load (demand for generation)that is placed on Watana.Figure 8.1-1 is a monthly elevation-frequency plot,based on daily simulated elevation data under the assumption that generation demand from Watana is at the maximum annual level that can be sustained with acceptable reliability.Figure 8.1-2 shows similar elevation-frequency data except that the load placed on Watana is half the maximum load.Note that there is a significant difference between reservoir elevation ranges (the y-axis)as shown on the two plots. The elevation-frequency data on Figure 8.1-2 could also correspond to a situation where an extended outage has occurred,or to a situation where for whatever reason,generation from Watana has been replaced by generation from another source. Based on these plots,the assumed starting reservoir level for the PMF model runs for the months of June through October will be at the maximum normal pool level at E]2050.A sensitivity run FINAL DRAFT Page 8-1 May 2014 -Z-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. will be performed for June at an initial reservoir level below El 2050 because under the maximum load scenario,the reservoir would frequently be less than full in June.It is noted that for a final PMF model run with a starting reservoir below El 2050,it would be necessary to route a 100-year flood through the reservoir three days prior to the start of the PMP.This requirement would typically result in a full reservoir anyway. 2100 2050 =7SeLAY)$F 2000 Ss /|VAoNYSY2WN P=}o 1950 +4 DONS /Ww -Maximum Normal Pool NQ+-100th Percentile (Maximum)- &-99th percentile ey,3 4900 -90th Percentile[4 |.a-50th Percentile (Median)Based on 61 years of---25th Percentile simulated daily -=Minimum Pool reservoir elevations 1850 1800 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Figure 8.1-1,Reservoir Elevation Frequency -Maximum Load FINAL DRAFT Page 8-2 May 2014 et a ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. 2060 2050 AMLULLLWN /=2040 NX:SY |3 2030 ADS yi | 8 2020 Maximum Normal Pool B-100th Percentile (Maximum)Based on 61 sf-99th percentile ased on 61 yearsof simulated daily -90th Percentile reservoir elevations -50th Percentile (Median)2010 -25th Percentile 2000 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Figure 8.1-2.Reservoir Elevation Frequency-50%Load 8.1.2 Intermediate Flood Operation To limit the frequency of spillway operation,which may result in undesirable downstream gas super-saturation,an operating criterion is being adopted such that the Project should be able to pass floods up to the 50-year flood (the "intermediate flood”)without opening the spillway gates. Facilities that will be used to pass the 50-year flood include the powerhouse turbines and the fixed-cone valves in the low-level outlet works (LLOW)as well as surcharge storage in the reservoir above the maximum normal operating level at El 2050.Floods larger than the 50-year flood ranging up to the PMF would require usage of the main spillway in addition to the LLOW. For the purposes of determining LLOW operation with an intermediate flood,the flood frequency was based on historic peak flows and flood volumes during the months of July through September when the reservoir is most likely to be full.In actual operation,there would be no attempt to determine the flood frequency of the inflow flood,the spillway gates would simply begin to open at the pre-determined reservoir level.The 50-year flood includes both the 50-year peak flow and the 50-year volume.The shape of the 50-year flood hydrograph was based on the August 1971 historical flood.Assuming that the reservoir is full at the start of even a July through September should give a conservatively high peak reservoir level because there is some realistic chance that the reservoir will not actually be full at the start of the 50-year flood. FINAL DRAFT Page 8-3 May 2014 -Z-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. A range of the number of valves in the LLOW was considered with eight valves being selected. Each valve has a capacity of about 4,000 cfs with the reservoir at El 2050,for a total capacity of 32,000 cfs in the LLOW.During routing of the intermediate flood,the turbines were assumed to be passing a total of 7,500 cfs,which is about 40%of their capability at El 2050,which gives a total outflow capability of 39,500 cfs.As shown on Figure 8.1-3,the maximum water level during routing of the intermediate flood was at El 2057.6.During routing of the PMF,the spillway gates do not begin to open until the reservoir level reaches El 2057.6,which is also the reservoir level at which the turbines are assumed to be completely shut down.The LLOW continues to operate through the PMF routing.Additional detail regarding the intermediate flood operation is provided in a technical memorandum that is included as Appendix B to this report. 80,000 2058 70,000 /\2057 60,000 +---Inflow [>/2056 -Outflow -Reservoir Level /y \50,000 //aN \2055 40,000 y/\\2054 30,000 ,/\2053 Lm 20,000 [/}1 2052 10,000 \Flow(cfs)ReservoirLevel(feet)2051ros|r|i ooeeeen anal 0 2050g38888888838222°°2 a °2 °°2 6 od ©&=5 &3 3 3 CI g Figure 8.1-3.50-Year Flood Routing with 8 Fixed-Cone Valves 8.2.Baseflow Baseflow can be estimated from the average monthly flow coincident with the PMP or as recorded prior to historic maximum floods.The baseflow used in the current study is based on the flows antecedent to the maximum values used for the corresponding spring or summer calibration and verification floods. FINAL DRAFT Page 8-4 May 2014 --Z-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. 8.3 Snowpack Snowmelt is an important and potentially a controlling component of the PMF because of the substantial snowpack that can occur in the Susitna River basin.This section summarizes the available snowpack data,develops a methodology to develop extreme snowpack data,and determines the required 100-year snowpack and probable maximum snowpack for the Susitna River tributary to Watana Dam. 8.3.1 Available Historical Snowpack Data Snowpack data is available at a number of stations either in the vicinity of or within the Susitna River watershed.Two types of snow data stations are available.SNOTEL stations have daily measurements,but only one SNOTEL station is located in the watershed tributary to Watana Dam,and it has a short record with missing data during much of 2013.Snow course data is available at several stations tributary to Watana Dam and the periods of record are generally longer than for SNOTEL stations,but typically only four measurements per year are available for the snow courses,taken roughly around the first of the month from February 1 through May 1.Snow course data measurements are not available for June.Table 8.3-1 summarizes identifiers,location,elevation,and period of record information for the SNOTEL and snow course stations for which data was gathered.The location of the various snowpack stations is shown on Figure 8.3-1. FINAL DRAFT Page 8-5 May 2014 -Z- SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414 Table 8.3-1.Snow Course and SNOTEL Stations In or Near the Susitna Watershed Station Name Station Station Type In Susitna R.Latitude Longitude Elevation Maximum SWE (2)Earliest Day (3)|Latest Day (3)|Years of Available SnowpackNumberWatershed(1){(deg:min)|(deg:min)(feet)(inches)Date with Snowpack |with Snowpack |Data In the Period of Record _Anchorage Hillside |1070 _}_SNOTEL _|__No__|_N61:07 |W149:40 |2,080 |18.4 _|4/12/2012|_10/6/2009 _|_6/31/2012,|__B years:2006 -2013__Bentalit Lodge 1086 SNOTEL Yes N 61:56 |W 150:59 150 12.1 4/2/2012 10/10/2009 5/8/2008 8 years:2006 -2013 |_Fairbanks FO.||_1174 _|SNOTEL__|__No _|N64:51_|W147:48|_450 |_14.2_|4/26/1991 |_9/t2/1992_|_9/20/2013 _|__31 years:1983-2013 _|Granite Creek 963 SNOTEL No N 63:57 |W 145:24 1,240 7.7 4/16/1991 9/12/1992 5/14/2013 26 years:1988 -2013_lndependence Mine _|1001 _|_SNoTEL _[_Border _{Notas |wiao17 |3.580 [23.5 |s/i7/2001|vor/a00a |a/tvaots_|46years:1998-2019._|__indianPass__|_946 _|_SNOTEL__|__No _|N61:04 |W149:29|2,350 |40.1 |5/13/2001]_9/17/1992_|_6/27/1985 _|_34 years:1980-2013 _||._MonohanFlat (4)_|_1004 |_SNOTEL__|_Border_|N63:18_|W 147:39|2,710 |NA _|NA _|_10/4/2008 |_5/25/2013 _|_6 years:2008-2013 __|-MtAlyeska |1103 _|__SNOTEL _|__No__|_N60:58 |W149:05 |1,540 |69.1 _|5/19/1998|_10/1/1903 |_7/3/1980_|_40 years:1973-2013 _|_Munson Ridge |_990 _|_SNOTEL _|__No _|_N64:51_|W146:13|_3,100_|18.4 |4/15/1901 |9/t1/1992_|6/2/1982 _|=_33 years:1981-2013 __|Susitna Valley High 967 SNOTEL Yes N 62:08 |W 150:02 375 18.7 4/1/1990 10/1/1997 5/21/1999 27 years:1988 -2013 Tokositna Valley 1089 SNOTEL Yes N 62:38 |W 150:47 850 20.7 4/27/2008 10/8/2009 6/3/2013 8 years:2006 -2013[_Blusbeny Hil _|_49No7_|Snow Course |__Yes _|Nezas |wrasse]1,200 |27.6_[a/orseo[ -__|__-__|_26 years:1988-2013 _|_Licarwatertake _{46No1 |Snow Course |_Yes__|Nezse |wiser |2650 |a4 |aarner2{=-|=__|_Aryears:1064-2018 _ |E.Fork Chulitna River |_47N02 Snow Course Yes N 63:08 |W149:27 |1,800 27.7 4/28/2005 -_--_26 years:1988 -2013|Foglakes__|4anoz |SnowCourse |Yes |Né6247 [W14928|2120 |112 |aero01|-| -|_Soyears.1964-2013 | __Horsepasture Pass 47NO2 r Snow Course _'Border 1 "N62:08 TW 147.38 |4,300 7 418 T 3/30/2005 es ens 0 "46 years:1968 -2013|independence Mine |49M26 |SnowCourse |Border |Net:48 |wi4a17|3550 |41.0 |sate]-[_.-|28years:1989-2013"Lake Louise |46No2 |SnowCourse |Yes |Né216 |w14631|2400 |76 |aos! -|-|Soyears:1964-2013 | _Monohan Flat 47001 Snow Course Border N 63:18 |W 147:39 2,710 14.8 3/31/2005 --49 years:1964 -2013"Monsoon lake [|46N03_|SnowCourse |Border |N62:50°|w146:37|3,100 |103 |aso1900|-|-|20years:1985-2013|"Square Lake |47NO1_|SnowCouse|Yes |Ne2:24 |W1a7:28|2950 |7.2 |a/2ei9e2{-|-|Sdyears 1964-2013 |Susitna Valley High |S0NO7 |SnowCourse |Yes |N6208 |w150:02|375 |181 |aso190|-|-|19years:1988-2012|Talkeetna |5ONO2 |SnowCourse |Yes |Né219 |w5005|350 |183 |aze1900)-| -|47 years 1967-2013 |"Tyone River |47NO3_|SnowCourse |Yes |N6240 |W147:08|2500 |62 |s/29/2000/-|-|2tyears:1981-2011 | Notes: (1)Items in bold indicate the location is tributary to Watana Dam.Border indicates the station is on or near the watershed border. (2)SWE is snow water equivalent,the depth of melted snow in a snowpack. (3)Snow course measurements are infrequent and insufficient to determine the earliest and latest days with a snowpack. (4)Snow water equivalent data is unavailable for the Monahan Flat SNOTEL site. FINAL DRAFT Page 8-6 May 2014 et a ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. (om(=:fame.ENEAGY AUTHORITY 4.ProposedWatanaDamShe£5 ProposedWatareReservar&Susana Gaga Sutions@=SNOTEL Statens Ff)Stow Course Locstons"4 ++Rairosa3]--rosesa£D Basin founaaryDkGlaciers[]Denas State Park ©™}[7]Nasonat Park anc Preserve(]Susana Fists State Game Retuge v aeDenaliNasional,ap oeParkandPreeér "|Note:SNOTEL and Snow Course May Be Co-Located Li fig BNO'7SEss ' Seow Coune Locstona Watana Watershed 54.yaFigure 8.3-1.Location of Snow Courses and SNOTEL Stations 8.3.2 Methodology Used to Determine the Estimated PMF Snowpack The seasonal 100-year snowpack coincident with the corresponding seasonal PMP is required by the FERC guidelines (2001,pg.68)for the determination of the PMF.The 100-year snowpack, or preferably the snow water equivalent (SWE)data,must be refined in three ways: e The 100-year SWE data must be seasonal (by month),for May through October. e The 100-year SWE data must be separated into 1000-ft elevation bands for each sub- basin. e The 100-year SWE data should vary by location in the watershed to account for the areal differences in precipitation,if appropriate.Due to large variations in average annual precipitation in the watershed above Watana Dam,the SWE in a single elevation band would not be the same throughout the watershed. For areas where snowmelt may be a significant contributor to the PMF,the FERC guidelines (pg. 68)also require a second PMF scenario,which is the 100-year precipitation on a Probable FINAL DRAFT Page 8-7 May 2014 --Z-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. Maximum Snowpack.Alternative methods to develop these PMF input data needs are discussed in the following paragraphs. Method 1 -Use Only Historic Snow Course and SNOTEL Data Using historic recorded data,the historic snowpack can be summarized for each month of the year at each location where data is available.Where the available data is only inches of snowpack,assume a starting SWE of 30 percent (FERC pg.68).Fit a distribution to the recorded monthly data and estimate the 100-year snowpack at each location for each month. From the various stations,develop snowpack data in each elevation band for each month. Develop separate 100-year data sets for different snow course locations.Assign sub-basins to appropriate snowpack data locations.This is a method previously used by MWH in PMF studies,but for smaller watersheds,and with more snowpack data stations relative to the watershed area. Advantages:If data is adequate,this could be the most direct method. Disadvantages:The available historic recorded data is probably inadequate to directly use this as the preferred method,particularly with regards to areal variation. Method 2 -Combine Historic SWE Data and the Seasonal Precipitation Map Historic snowpack data at available SNOTEL and snow course stations can be used to develop the 100-year snowpack by season.The snowpack would be spatially distributed in the sub- basins based on the area in 1000-ft elevation zones and the GIS-based seasonal precipitation map.The preferred alternative would be to use an October thru April average precipitation map to distribute the snowpack.The same ratio of the 100-year snowpack at a given snow course station (or stations)for a given month to the seasonal precipitation (Oct-April)would be used to develop the 100-year snowpack at all locations.Different ratios would be used for different months.For example,if the 100-year SWE at a snow course station (or stations)for May was equal to 120 percent of the October through April average precipitation at the snow course station (or stations)as determined from GIS precipitation maps,then the 100-year SWE at all locations in the watershed for May would be equal to 120 percent of the Oct-Apr precipitation. Advantages:The available data is adequate for this method.Adequate data may be available at several snow course and SNOTEL locations from which a more localized ratio could be developed.A method similar to this is given in the FERC PMF guidelines (pg.24). FINAL DRAFT Page 8-8 May 2014 -yzw ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. Disadvantages:May lack accuracy at lower elevations where a higher percentage of annual precipitation would be rain instead of snow,but inaccuracy for the extreme 100-year snowpack may not be significant.Snow course data ends at about May 1. Method 3 -Assume an Unlimited SWE An unlimited SWE as used herein means more SWE than can be melted during the PMP storm sequence at any elevation.In effect,this method was apparently applied in one of the previous PMF studies (Acres 1982),where the minimum initial snowpack for any sub-basin was 27 inches in the Tyone River sub-basin.The snowpack values in the 1982 PMF study are apparently SWE, based on an approximate reconstruction of the 1982 PMF with HEC-1.The 27 inches of SWE are enough to contribute snowmelt to the PMF peak over the entire watershed such that unlimited SWE would not increase the peak flow of the PMF. Advantages:The FERC PMF guidelines (pg.68)allow use of this assumption when no snowpack data are available.It would be the easiest method to apply. Disadvantages:Using this method for the Susitna-Watana watershed would probably represent compounding of conservatism during any month at the lower watershed elevations that constitute the majority of the watershed.It certainly represents compounding of conservatism at lower elevations during the summer months.FERC PMF guidelines (pg.2)specifically caution against compounding of conservatism in developing the PMF. Method 4 -Combine Historic Flood Data with the Assumption of Unlimited Snowpack Due to compounding of conservatism at lower elevations for the assumption of an unlimited SWE,use historic flood data to estimate snowmelt contributions from the lower elevations while using an unlimited SWE at the higher elevations.The FERC PMF guidelines (pg.68)indicate that seasonal 3-day average 100-year flood discharges may be used in lieu of the snowmelt component in non-mountainous regions if snowpack data is inadequate.For example,it could be assumed that elevations below 4,000 feet (or alternative elevation)are non-mountainous,but these lower elevations constitute about 69 percent of the watershed tributary to Watana Dam. For areas below 4,000 feet,the snowmelt component would be included as constant base seasonal flow proportioned by the area below 4,000 feet.For elevations above 4,000 feet,the assumption of unlimited snowpack would apply. In Design of Small Dams (1987,pg.52-53),the USBR has suggested development of the 100- year snowmelt flood based on a frequency analysis of the maximum annual snowmelt flood volume.The usual period of runoff selected was 15 days.The 100-year snowmelt flood is then distributed over time using the largest recorded snowmelt flood as the basis for distribution. FINAL DRAFT Page 8-9 May 2014 -yw ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. Advantages:This method would limit the snowmelt runoff in the areas where unlimited snowpack is an unfounded assumption.Proportioning the seasonal 100-year flood runoff provides a method for seasonal variation of the snowmelt runoff from 69 percent of the watershed.Data is adequate for this method. Disadvantages:There is some inherent uncertainty in the assumption that the 3-day average 100-year flood flow corresponds to the 100-year snowmelt runoff.Proportioning the 100-year runoff by drainage area is an approximation,but is probably conservative.The assumption of unlimited snowpack is always conservative and is probably excessively conservative. Selected Method:Historic SWE Data Combined with Seasonal Precipitation Mapping Method 2 described above is selected for development of the Susitna-Watana snowpack data because it maximizes the use of both historic snowpack data and the available precipitation mapping.The availability of GIS-based monthly precipitation maps and data is an advantage of this method for the areal and elevation distribution of snowpack that was not available during the 1980s PMF studies.This method should also avoid excessive conservatism that could be included in other methods. 8.3.3 Seasonal Precipitation Maximum snowpack distribution data was developed in proportion to the October through April average precipitation as has been previously suggested for the Yukon River (Weather Bureau 1966).GIS-based monthly precipitation was prepared using PRISM (Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model)an analytical tool developed at Oregon State University that uses point data,a digital elevation model,and other spatial data sets to generate gridded estimates of monthly,yearly,and event-based climatic parameters,such as precipitation, temperature,and dew point. Figure 8.3-2 graphically depicts the October through April average precipitation for the drainage area above the Gold Creek USGS gaging station.This figure clearly shows the wide variation in precipitation with lower total precipitation in the southeast part of the watershed and higher precipitation in the northern and western portions of the watershed. FINAL DRAFT Page 8-10 May 2014 -Z- ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. aw now Basle10 [54 Benin r A.Si Jnbutary te,a2[ac aren Raver to USGS gage Paxson ?an?2 UScA gage at Paxton %,ME ENERGY AUTHORITYleastForkandSusitnaRiverTeibutarytoplier[ns fer a Sulinarer rosynorglace gS[West Fart Sustinakiver tributarytoWestForkGlacier &Proposed Watana Dam Sie[West Fork Suattng Kh ver-mostly non gate al ae Ss 'Susitina Gaging Surtionsde;3.ay ht L5GS gage at Derali 4 fg ese Geet c-[J ProposedWatanaReservair BL 10 [eos Creex . -Bee Fe oe EE Joseme12[coal Geen to Tyone River loos!drainage PN La Sas ig ae (_]1.000 8 Cortours12[bake Louise tebutaryarea 5 ety ae See ae e iy ast ati24fscsitaaLakeardTyoreakeTaataryeatomespipeaFgSsCons6TEINLary,a,>Precipitationininches35[Urner lyone Creek ©confluence x q ore Sipstna River neDena is A 3-8 ic ,bs ei ROY gensLLowerIguneCeskardlaneTyeeAver%£coon, iis onbetng diver ax E=3 73-1029JueperOrretrave:ot . 20__Jute OstatnawoBack ivy Sop ed 0-12821[Blac River ais 12.518 22 row21kioose Creek ard Sun tra R to USGS gage at Cantwell EES 18-175Ed175-2 Ef w-26 EAE 25-25 B08 Ml v7.5.2 7,Freegee18gDeefatEStatehsFgreYare je Pear takeens eeWey ? ata OrsPreciptaponDataSource:PRISM--- 0 5 10 15 0 {on orectin.NAD 1983,'Dale Creamer 420.2093 \ Phe Guna veaectneg_OctApr PRICM_Ih417_Lane_4.10 1300 Figure 8.3-2.Average October through April Precipitation Table 8.3-2 provides the monthly average precipitation for each sub-basin and for the annual and October through April totals.Also shown is the area-weighted average precipitation to Watana Dam and to each of the four USGS gaging stations.The months of maximum precipitation are July through September with April being the month with the minimum precipitation.The average October through April precipitation varies from a maximum of almost 20 inches for the West Fork Susitna River (sub-basin 6)to a minimum of 4.32 inches in the area tributary to Susitna Lake and Tyone Lake (sub-basin)14. FINAL DRAFT Page 8-11 May 2014 -Z-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. Table 8.3-2.Monthly Average Precipitation by Month and Sub-Basin Sub-Basin Basin Area Average Precipitation {inches}Oct-AprNumber(sq.mi.)Jan Feb Mar Apr.May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual_|Oct-Apr |%of Year 16.92 [44.7%| 12.24 |423%| 6.66 |36.8%| 19,22 46.1% ....13.45 |43.5%1.3.83 |5.39_579 |468|2 33 4 .19.90 |46.4%_0.93 |3.98_]f_3.59 [278 |-235|1 14_|_165 |2393|(954 |39.0%_ ;87 {3.85_|_435 |(3.95_|206 [4.41|"188 |"27.76 |"1157 |"41.7% 1 |420_|_4.24 |357_|_275 [4.34|1.72 [2693 |10.50 |"39.0%_113 |2.35 _|_324 |370_|_294 {236|090 {1.31_]2i34_]7.96_|37.3%poo ltl]73.5 _|_1.02|1 06 _|_087|a4]117 |2s7_)_333 [371}318 |262_)_tor |447_)"291 |ess _(301%|Pi 2 __tz |oso |(057!054 |o51_|_108 [(228 |206 |260 |20r T 4.61 7|"079 |4.1277 676 [7 sea"S09 |Pi _-8___]2225_|_054 |045_|044 |032|104 [231|268 [1.82)01.55 [422°]077 [1.05]14.207 |"479 [7 s37%|4__{135.4 _|_0.47 |041_|_038 |026|4.06 [234)270 [1.75 |164 |1.25_|066 |090 |"13.81 |"4327 [7 31.3%|PBL 1951 |ot ["ose |680 [o4a |414 |248°)204 |"ote |"163 |4.32 [70905 |428|"i617 |575 _[356%|16 164.3 0.60 0.50 0.58 0.51 1.18 2.53 3.02 2.36 1.85 1.44 0.95 1.30 16.83 5.88 34.9% --27 __|-2532 [087_|_047 [0s1_|(035 [4.05_[224 [a7]2i7 [a7|"132 [07s |108 [1497 [5.09 |34.0% --18 __|4000 |069_|"4.00 |"089|}075 [145 |301 T 357_|"2.02 |236]i76 |1.03_)"140 |"2081 |"752 |736 1% --42 2 _Lf 2022 [o7z7_|_tot [oat)115 [4.90]330 ]3ea"|"335 |3197233 |"127)"155 |"2452 |905 |"361%DI I BITS36.3_|052)0.46 |o47_|"0.63 |1.26_)_2.49 |3.03_|"272 [221_|"158 |"076 |"104 [717.15 |5.45 |"31.8% --2L LiL 1627.|079_|081 |078 "|"1.29 T "4.87_|204 |38s)"3.71 |"408|"270 |4.217]167 |"2550 |7015 |35.8%LLL BLL Is92.0 |o56|046 [049|054 [4.05_|224 |283 |273 |20s_|"159 |"o77_|"1038 |16.40 |550 |"336%DL 2k LI 24z |"oe7"|"088 |057_)"006 |"1.307 |7 257 |3347]357 |3027|7221 |09077122 |2001 |"7.02 J "336%24 _187.4_|_0.86°[075_|063"|0.85_]_1.23°|2.48]3.45 |3.86_)3.04 |"246|0.99 |”1.28 |21.89 |"784 |35.8%[2 _[tao]ate [402|"000 [466]176 |350|472 |550 |7576 |3967 |i72 |4927)"3357_|"12247 3e5%|[ _%___[2228 |402 |092"|ors |4.327]140 |2907)"435 |4727]406 |307_|i46 |4607/7 2767"|1014 s66%|[ 2@___[2698 _|_1.08 |1.04_|_oea T oo4_|1.18 |2627)366 |400|"319 |226|139 |4.4217 2363_|"899 380%|eee eee 218.5 _|_1.20 |4.23_|t03 |o99_|4.22 [289_|405 |"44a art |2157 \7 178 |74.66_|7 26.35_|_10.04 |381%|29 36.8 0.76 0.73 0.60 0.75 0.99 2.19 2.99 3.25 2.58 1.78 1.03 1.06 18.70 6.74 35.9%30 _Lf 146.4 |4.32 [1.42|423_[11.20 [136_]_201 [422 |479 [4427]219 [216 |4.88 [2a7e [1140 [306%_DLL BELL Ll ete T4037)"toe |"a7 |"tae T 4.30)"3.05 |"405_|"477 |4 taf 227 |1.647)"137 |"2687 |"955 |735.6%82 LiL 2081 T4027 |"48 T 4.30_|"93 T 4.527]206 |3.857 |409 |407/175 T 250 |172 |"a49 |"47 |"40.9%332 Lf 2734 |4.57 |"167 [459)149 [4.a8_)_207 |4t3_|"8.04 [440 |216 |2577)"221 |31.29 |"13.26 |"424%a 34 164.8 2.07 1.98 1.87 1.48 3.04 457 6.27 5.45 3.69 2.28 269 36.60 16.06 43.9% |To Gold Creek Gage 6,143 4.11 1.17 1.01 0.99 1.32 2.80 3.70 3.97 3.45 2.46 1.40 1.67 25.04 9.80 39.1%|ToWatanaDam_|5,168 _|_1.05 |4.10 )_o93 |o91_[_131 |277_[_361 |376_|3.26 [248|1.24 [4.61_[2403 |9.32|38.6%|| To.Denali Gage_|_914 7)185 |208")ivi [4.25_)_144 [324|437 J 6007)"496 |357_["i79 [253"|"3350 [7 14.79 [aaa |To Maclaren Gage 279 1.35 1.94 1.52 1.19 1.40 2.97 3.86 4.84 4.42 3.49 1 2.08 30.62 43.12 42.8% To Cantwell Gage 4,079 1.05 1.13 0.96 0.85 1.30 2.74 3.51 3.58 3.10 2.42 1.17 1.62 23.44 9.20 39.3% 8.3.4 100-Year Snowpack Antecedent to the PMP PMF combined events criteria call for using a 100-year snowpack coincident with the PMP appropriate for the same month.The 100-year snow water equivalent was developed at several stations based on monthly snowpack statistics and the following equation: SWE=M+KS where:SWE is the 100-year snow water equivalent (inches) M is the mean snow water equivalent for a month (inches) S is the standard deviation of the monthly snow water equivalent (inches) K is a factor corresponding to a 100-year return period and the calculated skew of the monthly snow water equivalent Table 8.3-3 presents the calculated 100-year snow water equivalent values on or about the first of the month from February through May.Also shown is the October through April average total precipitation at the snow course locations as obtained from PRISM data.The last column of FINAL DRAFT Page 8-12 May 2014 -yw SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414 Table 8.3-3 shows the ratio of the calculated May 1,100-year SWE values to the October through April total average precipitation.These are the key values used to distribute the 100- year snowpack over the watershed. The last column ratios in Table 8.3-3 for snow courses in areas tributary to Watana Dam (not highlighted in red)range from 1.51 to 1.94 and average 1.68.The data for the snow courses highlighted in red,which are all outside the area tributary to Watana Dam,are all outside the 1.51 to 1.94 range and have therefore been eliminated from further consideration.Therefore,the tributary area average factor of 1.68 times the average October through April total precipitation was selected and was used to develop the 100-year May and June snowpacks.Due to the potential for cold weather to persist from April up to the start of June,the May and June snowpacks were considered to be equal.The precipitation that falls during May would essentially offset any snowmelt that occurs.Table 8.3-4 presents the 100-year snowpack SWE averaged by sub-basin.The runoff model separates the 100-year SWE values within each sub- basin by 1000-foot elevation bands. Table 8.3-3.100-Year Snowpack at Snow Course Stations Is Station Area 100-Year Snow Water Equivalent Oct-Apr Avg.|Ratio May 1 Station Name Tributary to |Elevation]Feb.1 |Mar.1 |Apr.1 May 1 |Total Precip.]100-Year/ Watana Dam (1)|__(feet)(inches){(inches)|(inches)|(inches)|(inches)|Oct-Apr (2) Blueberry Hill No 1,200 24.0 32.8 36.5 33.8 16.9 281 |"ClearwaterLake |Yes |2650 |81|82 |o8 |116 |60 |1.94 "E.Fork Chulitna River |No.--'|1,800 |236 |268 |315 |343 |118 [ 2¢0 T Foglakes |Yes |2120 |116 |121 |129 |119 |67 |1.78 Horsepasture Pass |Yes/Border |4300 |94 |118 |125 |128 |70 |182 | "Independence Mine [No |3,550 |396 |481 |501 |501 |245 [205 | "LakeLouise =|Yes |240 |67 |71 |82 |72 {|44 |163 "Monohan Flat |Yes/Border |2710 |127 |138 |147 |120 |85 |140 |MonsoonLake |Yes/Border |3,100 |683 |96 |to8 |-|60 |170 [ "squareLake |Yes |295 |60 |65 |74 |72 |48 |151|Susitna Valley High[No |sve _|136 |156 |165 |190 |139°[aTTalkeetnaNo35011.3 15.9 18.4 16.7 12.0 1.39 FyoneRiver ffYes |2500 |57 |62 |73 [-|48 1.53 Average of non-red values 1.68 Notes: (1)Border indicates that the stations are on or near the watershed boundary. (2)Where May 1 data is missing,April 1 data was used. Values in the red boxes were not used to determine the 100-year snowpack. FINAL DRAFT Page 8-13 May 2014 --Z-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. As presented in the previous section,July,August and September have no historic evidence of snowpack accumulation in the Susitna watershed.The only 100-year snowpack SWE for these months would be in glaciated areas,which are assumed to have an essentially unlimited snowpack above 4,000 feet. . Although there is no historic evidence of maximum floods occurring during October,and there is little evidence of snowpacks during October,the possibility of the critical PMF occurring during October has been retained for completeness.No snow course data is available for October and no SNOTEL data with SWE measurements are available within the watershed tributary to Watana Dam.The 100-year October snowpack was estimated as being equal to the average precipitation for the entire month of October.This is considered to be a conservative assumption,since the maximum snow accumulation would not occur until the end of the month, but the maximum temperatures would occur near the beginning of the month. FINAL DRAFT Page 8-14 May 2014 -Zw-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. 13-1402-REP-031414 Table 8.3-4.100-Year All-Season Snowpack Snow Water Equivalent Basin Annual |Oct-Apr |100-Year Sub-Basin Area Precip.Precip.SWE Number (sq.mi.)|(inches)|(inches)|(inches) 1 52.6 37.9 16.9 |28.4 2 226.4 28.9 12.2 20.6 3._|_295-4 |181 [67 {2 | -__42 ft 149.30 |49.70 |19.20 |32.3 ___5.___|_354.0 |309°|13.5 |226 | ___6 ___|_153.40 |428 |19.9 |33.4 | ..7 Ie 875 23-90 9.5 16.0 po8 Lt 189.9}27.8 _|_11.6 _|19.4_nn es ee 187.7 |26.9 _|_10.5 _|17.6 _ee ne 326.8)21.3 _|_80 _|13.4_ns Seee273.5 _}_22.9 _|_9.0 _|15.0_ee eeee 74.7 |16.8 _|)58 |9.8 _33 fe 2225 |1420 |48 80 2 44 We 381 [38 [43 |73 |48 |185.1 [16.2 |58 87 |___46 _ __|_1043]168 [59°99 |4 Lie 25320 [18.0 [5.1 8.8 __48 ___|_1000,[208 |75_[126 |19 202.2 24.5 8.8 14.9 Pe 36.3 |47.4 _|_54 |92 _ee4 esee 162.7 |256 |92 _15.4eeeeeee92.0 ||164 |)6.5 |)92 _PBL LL 174.2|"20.9 _|"7.0 |11.8_Pom TL 167.4 |249 |7.8 |43.225184.0 33.6 12.2 20.6 - __.26 __|_222.9 27.7 10.1 17.0 ___27 ___|_2696 J 236 [90°[15.1__._28 _ft 218.5 |26.30 |100 |169 |___29 _|368_[187 [67 |13 J___30 ___|_146.40 |288 |144 |19.1 31 181.9 26.9 9.6 16.1 ae eee 208.1_|_285 _|_41.5_|_19.3_P33t2734|313 |.13.3 22334164.8 36.6 16.1 27.0 |To Gold Creek Gage|_6,143 _|_25.0 9.8 _|_16.5_|ToWatanaDam_|_5,168 _|_24.0_|_9.3 _|_15.7 _ |._ToDenaliGage_|_914 _|_33.5 _j_14.8 _|_24.9_ |To Maclaren Gage |_279 _|_30.6 _j_13.1_|_22.0_To Cantwell Gage 4,079 23.4 9.2 15.5 FINAL DRAFT Page 8-15 May 2014 Zz ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO :AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. 8.3.5 Probable Maximum Snowpack The evaluation of a 100-year precipitation on a Probable Maximum Snowpack is required in areas where snowpack may make a significant contribution to the PMF (FERC 2001).In many cases,it can be enough to simply assume an unlimited snowpack and if the resulting PMF is less than for the PMP on 100-year snowpack case,then the Probable Maximum Snowpack scenario can be dismissed,which is the usual result.A more reasonable Probable Maximum Snowpack is developed for Watana Dam in this section. The Yukon River watershed lies to the north and east of the Susitna River watershed and is in places adjacent to the Susitna River watershed.The Weather Bureau (1966)has prepared a hydrometeorological report (HMR 42)for the Yukon River and preparation of a Probable Maximum Snowpack for the Yukon River was a major part of the report.Results of the HMR 42 are applicable to the Susitna River watershed. The HMR 42 Yukon River final result was that the Probable Maximum Snowpack was equal to 3.0 times the October through April cumulative average precipitation,based on an enveloping analysis of historic October through April precipitation data.The Susitna River watershed tributary to Watana Dam lacks this type of long-term precipitation data.In terms of May 1 recorded snow course SWE as a ratio to October through April average precipitation,the maximum recorded year value for the area tributary to Watana Dam is 1.73 at Monohan Flat. The maximum ratio in the Susitna watershed vicinity is 2.35 for the East Fork Chulitna River _snow course.Although it is a very approximate comparison,a snowpack of 3.0 times the average snowpack on May 1 would be more rare than a calculated 10,000-year event at many of the snow course stations,which would be appropriately rare for a probable maximum event. The adopted Probable Maximum Snowpack for the watershed tributary to Watana Dam will be 3.0 times the average October through April precipitation.The method of snowpack distribution over the watershed will be the same as for the 100-year snowpack.The average Probable Maximum Snowpack SWE for each sub-basin is presented on Table 8.3-5.The average Probable Maximum Snowpack SWE in the area tributary to Watana Dam is 27.9 inches,which compares to the Weather Bureau result of 15.7 inches Probable Maximum Snowpack for the upper Yukon River. FINAL DRAFT Page 8-16 May 2014 Za ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1402-REP-031414 Table 8.3-5.Probable Maximum Snowpack Snow Water Equivalent Basin Annual |Oct-Apr PMS Sub-Basin Area Precip.Precip.SWE Number _(sq.mi.)|(inches){(inches)|(inches) 1 52.6 37.9 16.9 50.8 | _._.2.___|_226.40 |28.9 |12.20 |386.7 a 3 en 295.4 Al _18.1_I _6.7_J _20.0 4 ne,ee 149.3°|417 al 19.2 |57.7 | 5._|-3540 |_309 |_135 |_404 | -_.6 ___}_153.4.|42.8 |19.9 |59.7 | 7 67.5 23.9 9.5 28.6 | ee:eeee 189.9 _}_27.8 _|_41.6 _|_34.7_PF 9%te 187.7 _|_26.9 _|_10.5 _|31.5 _ee ne 326.8 _|_213 _|_8.0 _|23.9 _ee0 esee 273.5 _|_229 |90 |269_eee eeee 74.7 |16.8 _|5.8 _|47.5_oe 13_a 222.5 |.14.2_JJ _4.8 _14.4 14 2 2 Lf BSL |138 f _43_|13.0 15 _ _JL 1851.|162){_58 |173 --16 ___|_1643.4 _168 4 _59_|_176 | --27 ___|_2832 4 150 |_5.1_|_153 J -18 ___f_100.0,|208)|_75_|226 | 19 202.2 24.5 8.8 26.5 P20 36.3 _|_17.1_|_54 _|163Pray1627|_256 _|_92 _|_275Poete92.0 ||164_|_55 _|165PT1742|209 _|7.0 _[C 2t.4_eeeoe 174 |"219 |78 |23525184.0 33.6 12.2 36.7 _..26 ___|_222.9 |27.7 |10.1.30.4 ___27.___|_,269.60 |236 |9.0 |27.028|”2185 [7263 [100 |30.4|___29 ___|_36.8 |187 |67 |20.1307Le4464[288 Tia |342 |31 181.9 26.9 9.6 28.7 en eeee208.1 _}_28.5 _|_11:5 _|34.4_<nae 273.4_}_31.3 _|_13.3_|_39.834164.8 36.6 16.1 48.2|To Gold Creek Gage |6,143 _|_25.0_|_98 _[|29.4|ToWatanaDam_|5,168 |"24.0 |"93 _|_27.9|"ToDenaliGage_|914 |335 _|448 |4447|To MaclarenGage |_279 _|_30.6_|_134_|_30.4ToCantwellGage4,079 23.4 9.2 27.6 FINAL DRAFT Page 8-17 May 2014 Za ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. 8.4 Snowmelt Snowmelt was determined within the HEC-1 program using the energy budget method.The input data used to determine snowmelt within HEC-1 includes snowpack water equivalent, snowmelt temperature,air and dew point temperature,insolation,and wind speed.The snowpack water equivalent was developed in the previous section.The snowmelt temperature was taken as 32 degrees Fahrenheit.The air and dew point temperatures were as developed in the PMP study (Appendix A)for the appropriate month.Temperatures were reduced for elevation at a rate of 2.6 degrees per 1,000 feet.Insolation was developed from Figure 7-1 of a PMF study for the Yukon River (Weather Bureau 1966). The energy budget snowmelt method in HEC-1 includes a snowmelt coefficient input value that the HEC-1 User's Manual (USACE 1998)indicates usually has a value of about 1.0.The HEC-1 snowmelt coefficient can be used to account for differences from the general snowmelt equation included in HEC-1 that applies most directly to partly forested areas (10%to 60%forest cover). Based on calibration results,the snowmelt coefficient input value was 1.25 for open sub-basins (<10%forest cover),1.00 for partly forested sub-basins (10%to 60%forest cover),and 0.90 for forested sub-basins (>60%forest cover).The general rationale for the variation of the snowmelt coefficients is that more open (less forested)areas are more exposed to winds that increase snowmelt. 8.5 100-Year Precipitation Based on PMF study guidelines (FERC 2001,pg.68),the evaluation of two PMF scenarios is required in the area west of the Continental Divide,which would include Alaska.This includes (a)PMP on 100-yr snowpack,and (b)100-yr precipitation on Probable Maximum Snowpack. The published data for Alaska that includes the 100-year precipitation (Weather Bureau 1963; Weather Bureau 1965;National Weather Service,et al.2012)focuses on point precipitation values and none of the publications contains areal reduction factors for areas greater than 400 square miles.Only Technical Paper No.47 (Weather Bureau 1963)for Alaska includes an estimate of the PMP,and it also includes a map of the ratio of the PMP to the 100-year rainfall for a 6-hour duration.For the drainage area tributary to Watana Dam,the ratio of the PMP to the 100-year precipitation averages about 4,with the ratio approaching 3 near the mountainous borders of the watershed. For the 48 adjacent United States area,maps of the ratio of the PMP for 10 square miles to the 100-year frequency rainfall (both for 24-hour durations)have been developed.These PMP/100- yr rainfall ratios range between 2 and 6 (Committee on Safety Criteria for Dams 1985).In the 48 FINAL DRAFT Page 8-18 ;May 2014 Za ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. adjacent states,there are indications that the PMP to 100-year precipitation ratio is frequently about 3 in mountainous areas. As a part of the current site-specific PMP study,Applied Weather Associates has determined the ratio of the 24-hour point PMP values from the current study to the corresponding recent National Weather Service (2012)100-year,24-hour point precipitation values.For the area tributary to Watana Dam site,the ratio of the PMP to 100-year values averaged 1.74 (see Appendix A for additional detail).The 1.74 ratio represents the most current data and methods and will result in the most conservative estimate of the 100-year precipitation.Therefore,for the PMF scenario developed with the 100-year precipitation on the probable maximum snowpack, the 100-year precipitation was developed as the seasonal PMP divided by 1.74. 8.6 Freeboard Freeboard is the vertical distance between a specified stillwater reservoir surface elevation and the top of the dam.Watana Dam will be designed to provide two types of freeboard:(1)normal freeboard,which is defined as the difference in elevation between the top of the dam (i.e.dam crest)and the normal maximum pool elevation,and (2)minimum freeboard,which is defined as the difference in pool elevation between the top of the dam and the maximum reservoir water surface that would result from routing the PMF through the reservoir. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC 1993)has referenced the U.S.Bureau of Reclamation ACER TM No.2 (USBR 1992)for guidelines that provide criteria for freeboard computations.The USBR freeboard policy has been developed for three categories of dam types relative to their age and erodibility including (1)new concrete dams,(2)new embankment dams, and (3)existing concrete and embankment dams.Regarding new concrete dams,the guideline (USBR 1992)states that the standard 3.5-foot high solid parapet entirely above the elevation of the non-overflow section (dam crest)provides for minimum freeboard in the event of the PMF. ACER TM No.2 further states that due to the ability of concrete dams to resist erosion,this is ordinarily the only type of freeboard necessary to consider (no criteria for normal freeboard were provided).To ensure that exceptional circumstances do not point to a need for additional freeboard,normal freeboard based on the 100 mph maximum wind speed specified for a new embankment dam has been analyzed along with the wind speed protection provided by the 3.5- foot parapet wall coincident with the peak of the PMF. The significant wave height (average of the highest one-third of the waves)is commonly used for freeboard design of dams that are erosion resistant.The calculated effective fetch for the reservoir is 2.87 miles.For wave runup on a vertical dam face,the results are summarized in Table 8.6-1. FINAL DRAFT Page 8-19 May 2014 Za ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 ,13-1402-REP-031414Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. Table 8.6-1.Freeboard Parameters Parameter Wind Speed (mph) 40 50 100 Significantwaveheight (eet)_|_28 |_37.]_87.|_Wave period (seconds)_|3.0 _|33_[|43 _|__Wave length (feet)-[|45.2 |54.2 95.1 ___Waverunup (feet)-|_3.08.4.06 9.52 ___Wind setup (feet)-|0.01 |0.01 |0.03 | Wave runup +wind setup (feet)3.09 4.07 9.55 FINAL DRAFT Page 8-20 May 2014 --Z-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. 9.PMF HYDROGRAPHS Under FERC guidelines,in planning a project of this type,evaluation of two PME scenarios is required including (a)PMP on 100-year snowpack,and (b)100-year precipitation on probable maximum snowpack.This chapter also includes three sets of PMF runs that determine (1)the critical temporal distributions of the PMP,(2)the critical seasonal PMF in combination with seasonal PMPs and meteorological conditions,and (3)PMF sensitivity runs that determine the potential effects of both more conservative and less conservative values for key parameters. From among the three sets of PMF runs a preliminary determination of the critical PMF inflow hydrograph was made and preliminary spillway sizing was performed.A final section of this chapter compares results of the current studies with results of previous Susitna PMF studies. Precipitation,temperature,wind speed,and dew point data were used directly as provided by Applied Weather Associates for all PMF cases. A review of previous Susitna PMF studies indicated that a reasonable objective for the PMF maximum water level would be about 15 feet above the maximum normal pool level at El 2050. To provide a common basis for comparison of the various PMF case runs summarized in this section and for selection of the critical PMF case,a common spillway crest level at El 2000 and a common spillway width of 126 feet (3 gates each at 42 feet wide)were used for all initial case runs.The 126-foot spillway width limits the critical PMF hydrograph to a maximum water level below E]2065. Based on comments received at the Fourth Meeting of the Independent Board of Consultants during April 2-4,2014,the spillway crest level was subsequently raised by 10 feet to El 2010. As described in Section 9.3,the total gate width was increased to keep the maximum routed critical PMF level below El 2065 with the raised spillway crest.The spillway sizing is preliminary and subject to additional future optimization.No dam crest level was determined herein by the PMF study. 9.1 PMF Inflow and Outflow Hydrographs As shown on Figures 6.1-1,6.1-2,and 6.1-3,three alternative temporal distributions were available for the PMP.Because it is not known in advance with complete certainty which PMP distribution will be critical (results in the highest reservoir elevation),all three distributions were run for both spring and summer conditions.As shown on Table 9.1-1,the PMP temporal distribution based on the August 1967 storm resulted in the critical maximum reservoir water surface elevation for both the spring (El 2059.3)and summer (El 2059.6)PMF.As can be seenonFigure6.1-1,the August 1967 temporal distribution had the most concentrated rainfall,which FINAL DRAFT Page 9-1 May 2014 Zz SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414 generally produces the critical condition.Therefore,allIT subsequent PMF runs used the August1967temporaldistributionofthePMP. Table 9.1-1.PMP Temporal Distribution Cases Maximum Based Peak Peak Reserwir Case on Inflow Outflow |W.S.Elev. Number |Season Storm (cfs)(cfs)(feet)|_T1 _|Spring |Aug-67 |196,000_|195,000 |_2059.3_|_72__}Spring Aug-55 180,000 179,000 2059.1 _33__|Spring _|Sep-12_|_158,000 |157,000|_2058.9 _|_T4 _|Summer |Aug-67 |222,000_|218,000 |_2059.6_||_TS _|Summer |Aug-55 |159,000_]_157,000 |_2058.9_| 6 Summer |Sep-12 130,000 126,000 2058.6 Table 9.1-2 shows the list of seasonal model runs that were made with variations in PMP, temperature and dew point,wind speed,and snowpack.Normally seasonal PMF runs are only considered on a monthly basis,but because temperature and dew point data were available on a half-month basis,PMP values and wind speeds were interpolated to also provide half month values.The comment column of Table 9.1-2 provides reasons for eliminating runs for various half-month periods because they cannot produce the controlling results. FINAL DRAFT Page 9-2 May 2014 za ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. Table 9.1-2.PMF Seasonal Run Selection Temp.and Wind Date PMP Dew Point Speed Snowpack Comment Ratio Ratio Ratio Janua -_-_ iietind ------=--4-==--+----=---4 Eliminated by lack of historic floods,low temperatures,etc. 15Mar_|0.300 |__|14590|29 ==__fp ee LLLLLL!|4-Apr |0.450 |0.39 |1.350 ]-_-___]Eliminated by lack of historic floods,low antecedent reserwir15-Apr |_0.600_|0.55 |_4250 |___=___4 __lvls,low PMP,and low temperatures.1-May 6.715 J _069 _|1.155 |__100year__|__Run_only ifMay 15 appears be controlling ___15May |0.830 |080 |1.060 ||100year =|=CaseM1_= L t-Jun,_j _0.885_|0.90,_|_0.965_-100-year_ ----- GaseM2 |.A5-Jun _|_0.940_|_0.95__}_0.870_|__Reduced__|_Eliminated-snowpack reduced comparedtoJune1__ 1-Jul_|.0.970 |1.00 |0.895 _|__Glacieronly__|__Eliminated-no snowpack,less than All-Season PMP __| 15-Jul 1.000 1.00 0.920 Glacier only__|_Eliminated -August15is more critical due to wind speed |tAug |_1.000 |_1.00 |0.960_|_Glacier only,_|Eliminated-August 15 is more criticalduetowind speed_15-Aug _|_1.000_{_1.00._}_1.000_|_Glacieronly fo 22 ___CaseM3 1-Sep_|0.960 |094 |4.075 |__Glacieronly,§|_=__CaseM4- 15-Sep_|0.920 _|_0.86 _|1.150 _|__Glacieronly,|.__§_-_____JCaseMS ed1-Oct 0.860 0.77 1.200 |50%Aw.Sep Preci Case M6 |15-Oct |_0.800_|_0.64 |_1.250_|Avg.Oct Precip,|Eliminated-lower temperatures and PMP thanOctober1_1-Nov 0.725 0.51 1.265 Avg.Oct Precip.Eliminated -less critical than October 15. 15-Nov_|0.650 |--_[1.2800 |=2 -__fe Eliminated by lowtemperaturesand low PMP.___|December ----Eliminated by lack of historic floods,low temperatures,etc. Interpolated Table 9.1-3 provides the PMF inflow,outflow,and reservoir elevations for the seasonal model runs selected for analysis on Table 9.1-2.Results for the set of seasonal PMF cases indicates that Case M3,the August 15 PMF forms the maximum PMF reservoir water level condition,but Case M2,the June 1 PMF yields almost the same maximum reservoir level. One additional run,the probable maximum snowpack with the 100-year rainfall is also included as Case M7.The 100-year rainfall was based on a PMP/100-year rainfall ratio of 1.74 that was estimated in the Applied Weather Associates PMP study (see Appendix A).The relatively low PMP/100-year rainfall ratio (a conservative value for estimating the 100-year rainfall)is associated with higher elevations where general storm,long duration precipitation is prevalent. The results show that Case M7 is not the controlling PMF condition. Although references indicate that a perfect ogee-crested spillway coefficient could be slightly higher,the selected spillway coefficient value of 3.90 that was used in all cases is a more achievable actual construction value.The ogee-crest of the spillway was at El 2000 feet in all cases. FINAL DRAFT Page 9-3 _May 2014 -Z-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. Table 9.1-3.PMF Routing Results at Watana Dam Maximum Peak Peak Reserwir Case Starting Inflow Outflow |W.S.Elev. Number |Date (1)(cfs)(cfs)(feet) |_M1_|15May |96,000 |96,000_|_2058.2 __M2__|_t-Jun _|196,000 |_195,000 |_2059.3 _|_M3__|15-Aug_|222,000 |218,000 |_2059.6 _| M4 1-Sep 206,000 |201,000 |2059.4 _ |_MS__|15-Sep |163,000 _|158,000_]_2058.9 _ _M6 |1-Oct |92,000_{|92,000 |2058.2 | M7 1-Jun (2)|136,000 |134,000 2058.6 Notes (1)See Table 9.1-2 for the elimation of some months. (2)Probable maximum snowpack with 100-year rain. 9.2.Sensitivity Analysis FERC PMF guidelines indicate that the first computed inflow PMF hydrograph should be considered as preliminary pending review of the assumptions considered to have a significant effect on the PMF and a determination of the sensitivity of individual parameters on the magnitude of the PMF.A sensitivity analysis is made to determine the degree the PMF is affected by key parameters even if conservative parameters for those parameters were assumed. 9.2.1 PMF Cases Previous studies have indicated that the critical PMF inflow hydrograph occurs in the spring,in contrast to the results in Table 9.1-3 that show that the August 15 PMF results in the maximum reservoir water level.Therefore,the sensitivity analysis focuses primarily on the spring maximum June 1 PMF.Lowering the loss rates is a typical sensitivity case.Case S2 substitutes the summer loss rates into the spring runs and also lowers the initial loss to the corresponding hourly loss rate.Case S3 lowers the loss rate to a minimal 0.02 in/hr with zero initial losses.As shown on Table 9.2-1,both of these lowered loss rate cases resulted in maximum reservoir water levels higher than the August 15 PMF case. Cases S4,S5,and S6 focus on the sensitivity of the June 1 PMF to adjustments in wind speed and temperature.Case S4 represents a relatively large 10 mph increase in all wind speeds.Case S5 represents a 3 degree F increase in all temperatures.Case S6 substitutes in the 1980s Harza- Ebasco PMF Study temperature and wind values while using all the other parameters from the FINAL DRAFT Page 9-4 May 2014 --z--ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. current study.This case is particularly notable because it produces essentially the same peak PME inflow as was determined in the Harza-Ebasco study. Case S7 represents a less conservative case wherein the initial reservoir level would be 20 feet below the maximum normal pool level.Results of Case S7 are essentially unchanged from Case S1 because the volume of the inflow flood greatly exceeds the reservoir volume available for flood attenuation. A sensitivity run was also performed for the August 15 PMP (Case M3 in Table 9.1-3).Case S8 for the August 15 PMP uses the same 0.02 in/hr with zero initial losses that was used in Case S3. Results for Case S8 show that it is a smaller flood than Case $3,which emphasizes the high sensitivity to the snowmelt loss rates that were applicable for the entire watershed with the 100- year snowpack in Case $3,but snowmelt loss rates were only a minor factor from the glaciers for the August 15 Case S8. Table 9.2-1.PMF Routing Sensitivity Analysis Results Maximum Modification (if any)Peak Peak Resernir Case to June 1 or August 15 PMF Inflow Outflow W.S.Elev. 'Number (cfs)(cfs)(feet)|_S1_|____Nomodification to June 1PMF_____|196,000_|195,000 |_2059.3__|$2 June 1 PMF with summer loss rates 241,000 239,000 2059.8 _S3__|__June 1.PMF with constant0,02 in/hr loss rates __|_310,000 |281,000|_2064.4 _$4 June 1 PMF with +10 mph winds 232,000 231,000 2059.7 |_S5_|__June 1PMF with +3degree F temperatures --|235,000_}234,000 |2059.8 |_S6_|__June 1_PMF with Harza-Ebascotempand wind __|_312,000 |277,000|_2063.7 __S7_|__June1PMFwith initial reservoirlevel at E12030__|_196,000 |191,000|_2059.3 _$8 August 15 PMF with constant 0.02 in/hr loss rates 246,000 244,000 2059.9 9.2.2 Spring Flood Loss Rate Reanalysis The sensitivity runs indicated a high degree of sensitivity to loss rates,wind speeds and temperature.Wind speeds in particular have a relatively high degree of uncertainty associated with them.On many other PMF studies,the conservatism associated with the PMF is primarily embodied in the PMP (as much as 60 inches in 72 hours in some places in the USA),such that it overwhelms the sensitivity that may occur in all other parameters.Because the Susitna-Watana PMP is 10 inches over 216 hours,the sensitivity to other parameters particularly those associated with snowmelt can significantly affect the PMF results.Primarily due to both the sensitivity and uncertainty associated with input data affecting snowmelt runoff,it was considered appropriate FINAL DRAFT Page 9-5 May 2014 So Za ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. to lower the previously calibrated loss rates to a minimal 0.02 inch per hour and add a measure of additional conservatism to the PMF analysis.Because adding excessive conservatism to parameters is unacceptable,this section focuses on a reanalysis of the spring calibration and verification floods to determine the acceptability of using the constant 0.02 inch/hour loss rate. Results for the historic spring flood reanalysis are presented on Figures 9.2-1 through 9.2-12.On all of the figures,the USGS recorded daily flows are in blue,the initially simulated flows are in red,and the reanalysis flows are in green,with the basin average precipitation to the point of flow measurement in gray at the top of the plots.No adjustments were made to the originally estimated precipitation and temperature values for any sub-basin in any of the three historic flood periods.Some adjustments were made to the notably low originally estimated wind speeds for the June 1964 flood.Adjustments to initial snowpack were considered to be acceptable within a reasonable range considering the uncertainty associated with this parameter. Although the results of the spring flood loss rate reanalysis generally indicate that the original calibration was of better quality,it does not provide any reason to consider the 0.02 inch per hour loss rate to be excessively conservative.Therefore,the 0.02 inch/hour loss rate was accepted for use with the PMF. 12,000 0.0 10,000 ee Jo NZer, im 7 e A4,000 0.2 0.4 > L ZY 06y,72)jaifLNPrecipitation(inches)> a 08 mm Avg Daily Precip (in)X- -USGS Susitna River at Denali 2,000 -#-Initial Simulated Denali 10 -#-Revised Simulated Denali 0 |t t t |4.2 6/3 6/4 6/5 6/6 67 6/8 6/9 6/10 6/11 612 6/13 6/14 65 616 617 Figure 9.2-1.June 1971 Reanalysis,Susitna River near Denali FINAL DRAFT "Page 9-6 May 2014 yz :ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414 w)Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. 6,000 -0.0rtSONogmusAvgDailyPrecip(in) -e-USGS Maclaren River at Paxton §,000 +-- -=-Initial Simulated Maclaren an 02 #-Revised Simulated Maclaren o\YY,N4,000 Y \Y 0.4 ry--_NS £ =AN 22ea= 2 Pal lA eo pe,s3,000 ey a 06S |- *°2/LA * 2,000 AL.Va a 08 ee 1,000 1.0 ie}1.2 6/3 6/4 6/5 6/6 67 6/8 6/o 6/10 6/11 6/12 6/13 6/14 6/15 6/16 617 Figure 9.2-2.June 1971 Reanalysis,Maclaren River near Paxson O 50,000 oO ||0.0 45,000 LJ 0.1 40,000 |wm Avg Daily Precip (in)LN 02 -e-USGS Susitna River near Cantwell 35,000 Initial Simulated Cantwell 03 "#-Revised Simulated Cantwell a \ OSsSWFlow(cfs)Nee\\AwaYWoOaPrecipitation(inches)wd ou . 5,000 0.9Lf 6/3 6/4 6/5 6/6 67 6/8 6/9 6/10 6/11 6/12 63 614 615 6/16 617 Figure 9.2-3.June 1971 Reanalysis,Susitna River near Cantwell © FINAL DRAFT Page 9-7 May 2014 Za ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. 70,000 |q q wr 0.0 Salata amsssetmuctcnn||\\;ToS4NN 50,000 ---wa Revised Simulated Gold Creek 40,000 VA>06 >g NS A S §g ziraNy530,000 NN 08 =£VA NY 3SPe.fr]/]: a 20,000 1.0Fa 10,000 +1.2 6/3 6/4 6/5 6/6 6/7 6/8 6/9 6/10 6/11 612 613 6/14 6/15 6/16 6/17 Figure 9.2-4.June 1971 Reanalysis,Susitna River at Gold Creek 18,000 Lal |0.0 16,000 ZX 0.2 44,000 FEN os mas Avg Daily Precip (in)Va \\12,000 + e-USGS Susitna River at Denali I #-Initial Simulated Denali y KN10,000 +---Revised Simulated Denali 6,000 LL.co os 12eaSYAFlow(cfs)PsSPrecipitation(inches)At4,000 y i 14Lec* 2,000 16 0 18 67 6BsisCiCNSC'éAA'SC(<t'« iZSC CN (ss (GS CGSCGIT:-=Cié«iMBCSC*«'iR:S*C*«CZOC 2 Figure 9.2-5.June 1972 Reanalysis,Susitna River near Denali FINAL DRAFT ;Page 9-8 May 2014 Za ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414 SClean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. nooo iii :7 ee acco /SNOUN AN |b oe 5,000 yy oN \ JL NI7N\06 2 g &4.000 al N 08 §2 /VA AN zLPNSSa1.0 z LilPd Sf tam Avg Daily Precip (in) 2,000 ee 12-e-USGS Maclaren River at Paxton 3,000 o -De]ET VY 7 PADS a -#Initial Simulated Maclaren 1,000 a-Revised Si Maclaren 14 t)||}16 67 68 6/9 6/10 6/11 6N2 613 6/14 65 6/16 67 68 6/19 6/20 6/21 Figure 9.2-6.June 1972 Reanalysis,Maclaren River near Paxson O "CCC EOEANY -:ff QAey |e --USGS Susitna River near Cantwell 08Ji,YL\LLFlow(cfs)Precipitation(inches)\15,000 =A #-Initial Simulated Cantwell 10,000 #-Revised Simulated Cantwell 12 5,000 1.4 67 6/8 6/9 6/10 6/11 6/12 6/13 6/14 615 616 6/17 6/18 6/19 6/20 6/21 Figure 9.2-7.June 1972 Reanalysis,Susitna River near Cantwell O FINAL DRAFT Page 9-9 May 2014 --Z-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. 80,000 7pm _LPwer fl -TOoT™it 0.0 roe [7 02 soc 7 7,aN ti NY 0 om V7 \Ne og ae ZL ff Nw 7"se AE WN Jitam Avg Daity Precip (in) 20,000 +--set -e-USGS Susitna at Gold Creek 42 -#Initial Simulated Gold Creekt\Na.-#-Revised Simulated Gold Creek 10,000 1.4 6/7 6/8 6/9 6/10 6/11 6/12 6/13 6/14 6/15 66 6/17 6/18 619 6/20 6/24 6/22 Figure 9.2-8.June 1972 Reanalysis,Susitna River at Gold Creek 18,000 |al 16,000 LF PS || i .7 |: a LC.aetdwsNShea10,000 Va V 0.4 8 oz8 *|L|/€ 8,000 o5 &a i.s\ Pev4xe 6,000 "mm Avg Daily Precip (in)06 3| e-USGS Susitna River at Denali 4,000 Z #Initial Simulated Denali 07Late#-Revised Simulated Denali |2,000 |Sa ++ 08 5278/28 8/29.5/30 S34 GT 6/2 6 6/4 6/5 66 67 6/8 69 610 6/11 6412 6/13 Figure 9.2-9,June 1964 Reanalysis,Susitna River near Denali FINAL DRAFT Page 9-10 May 2014 -Z-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. 8,000 a Ll et |og 0.0 7,000 : :|[mN 02 6,000 PSVS,Nae "iana74:Pe XN 0.4 5,000 a ss '->»\z NQ 3 &/TN \3 Z 4,000 Seo We os £,|A SS: 3,000 4y 31SammAvgDailyPrecip(in)os 2OKUSGSMaclarenRiveratPaxton+ 2,000 we A -#-Initial Simulated Maclaren =a Revised Simulated Maclaren 1.0 4,000 =|4 °527 45/28 «5/29 «#29870 «5/31 6s-CiS2ssiaC (isCC('itéiéiSOCKOCTCCCCGIDsC11 G2 G13 "2 Figure 9.2-10.June 1964 Reanalysis,Maclaren River near Paxson 60,000 |fl oer a l _-me (0.0 50,000 0.2 40,000 7 N\0.4 e (Y NA ry£iY 2830,000 /MN os & ao /¢ 8a| 'a4mmAvgDailyPracip(in)3 20,000 Vl -e-USGS Susitna River near Cantwell 08 oO vy,-@-Initial Simulated Cantwell/-#-Revised Simulated Cantwell 10,000 1.0 ar )12 527 628 §29 530 631 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 610 611 612 6/3 Figure 9.2-11.June 1964 Reanalysis,Susitna River near Cantwell FINAL DRAFT Page 9-11 May 2014 ) O ---Z-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. 100,000 a -fl elt ile 90,000 Ld 0.1 bal80,000 ki LAAaw 02AtN 70,000 a mA RON 03 60,000 la Va 7 BN 0.4 _z .yA L /N \|2=50,000 08.vA,C4 iS A 40,000 L|0.6 3NVa |-8/PA mam Avg Daily Precip (in)a 30,000 7 -+-USGS Susitna at Gold Creek 07 /YW,-®-Initial Simulated Gold Creek 20,000 |osiw -#-Revised Simulated Gold Creek os 40,000 gla 0.9 - - 0 1.0 527 5/28 529 530 531 64 62 63 G64 65 66 6F G8 69 610 611 62 6/13 Figure 9.2-12.June 194 Reanalysis,Susitna River at Gold Creek 9.2.3 Sun-on-Snow PMF Section 3.2.5 presented recorded flow,precipitation,and temperature data for the near record Susitna River flood that peaked at Gold Creek on June 2,2013.This flood provided actual data that confirmed the hypothesis that a colder than normal spring followed by a later than normal rapid warmup to near record temperatures around the first of June presented at least some of the conditions that could result in maximum flood generation on the Susitna River. At the Fourth Meeting of the Independent Board of Consultants (BOC)held April 2-4,2014, written recommendations from the BOC included the following: "The near-record flood of June 2013 raises the possibility of a "sun-on-snow”PMF.In light of the fact that the PMP rainfall is relatively small and is associated with temperatures substantially lower than the temperatures that may occur in late spring/early summer with no cloud cover,the BOC suggests investigating the snowmelt-only event in at least enough depth to confirm it cannot control the PMF.This investigation would involve two elements: e Apply the HEC-1 model to the June 2013 event to confirm that it can replicate this type of flood; FINAL DRAFT Page 9-12 May 2014 et a ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO _AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. e Consider whether a probable maximum snowpack combined with unusually high temperatures,with no rain,could produce a controlling PMF.” ' The results from the above BOC recommendation are presented in this section,which also included a change in snowmelt methodology for modeling the sun-on-snow floods. ) 9.2.3.1 Snowmelt Methodology for Sun-on-Snow Conditions Two snowmelt methodologies are available in the HEC-1 Flood Hydrograph Package,which are (1)the energy budget method,and (2)the degree-day method.In the FERC Engineering Guidelines,Chapter VII],"Determination of the Probable Maximum Flood”,the following excerpt is taken from page 67 (where PMS refers to the probable maximum storm,also known as the PMP): "Snowmelt during the PMF should be computed using the energy-budget method available in the HEC-!Flood Hydrograph Package.The energy-budget method is preferable to the degree-day (temperature index)method because the degree-day method was developed specifically for rain-free periods.The energy budget method,on the other hand,was developed for either rain-on-snow or rain-free periods.In the case of a PMS, the heat added to the snow pack by the rain is an important (and sometimes even dominant)melt factor.” The energy budget snowmelt method has been used in all other flood simulations presented herein.Because the BOC requested new PMF case is for a rain-free PMF,for which degree-day method was developed,it should be considered as an acceptable method for this case.Because the degree-day snowmelt method requires only temperature and snowpack as input data,it is much easier to apply than the energy budget method that also requires the more difficult to estimate wind speed and dew point data as input.If the degree-day method results clearly indicate that a rain-free PMF could not be the controlling case,it should provide sufficient documentation to eliminate the rain-free PMF as the controlling PMF case. 9.2.3.2 May-June 2013 Simulation Recorded temperature and precipitation at the Talkeetna Airport (elevation 350 feet)provided the basic meteorological data needed for the May-June 2013 flood simulation.Recorded Talkeetna precipitation was adjusted to the sub-basins based on the ratio of average May precipitation in each sub-basin to the average Talkeetna precipitation for the same period. Hourly temperatures at Talkeetna were estimated from the maximum and minimum daily values and adjusted to the sub-basin snowpack based on a 2.6 degree per 1,000-ft lapse rate.The initial snowpack snow water equivalent in all sub-basins was estimated to be equal to the average total precipitation for the October through April period.The loss rate was 0.02 inches per hour in all FINAL DRAFT Page 9-13 May 2014 --Z-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. sub-basins and all unit hydrograph parameters remained the same as developed in the calibration and verification process.The HEC-1 model was operated on an hourly time increment. Recorded and simulated daily average flow data for the three USGS gaging stations that were operating during 2013 are presented on Figures 9.2-13 through 9.2-15.The daily precipitation on the plots represents average precipitation for the area tributary to the USGS gages.No adjustments were made to any recorded data.A small adjustment was made to the estimated snowpack above Denali to make it be.slightly above average. The general agreement between the simulated and recorded flows at all three USGS gages is very good and acceptable.The initial rise in simulated flows,peaking in the May 12-14 period, occurred during a period when the remaining winter ice cover prevented direct flow measurements at the USGS gages.The contribution of rainfall to the peak flow was negligible as the non-snow precipitation occurred on the same day of or after the peak flow.The results of the May-June 2013 simulation confirm that the degree-day snowmelt method is acceptable for rain-free flood simulation on the Susitna River and increases confidence in the validity of the results for the hypothetical sun-on-snow PMF simulations. 25,000 I v 7 I ¥0.0 22,500 0.2 20,000 A 0.4 17,500 0.6 0.8 SS[a415,000 0,ne o312,900 10 2 10,000 12 Srf3ommAvgDailyPrecip(in)"2 7,500 'ae we -@USGS Susitna River at Denali ffi Md 5,000 imulated Denali {16 2,500 ||A;18eeeayJ,Pl tvex:.en re: 0 [toe-+oF 4 ttt 20 s Ss &S Pad »>Pa Pal a>Pan >>>_= >Pal i=7 =]i=7 i=i=c i-c i=7 iaeaaeoeaeeeeeee22ga¢6 &Oo ®oeoda+teaoqgqcoaueteoeaoear a éx gi dg sd wk aNANNNNOMFTHOFPSNFTSCGZssgsseeerereepeweeFbes Figure 9.2-13.May-June 2013 Simulation,Susitna River near Denali FINAL DRAFT Page 9-14 May 2014 -yw ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA11-022SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1402-REP-031414 100,000 1 7 T "|0.0 90,000 0.2 80,000 04 70,000 pts 06 60,000 1 \\08 a rm$\\2 =50,000 10 83E z ,an § 40,000 mm Avg Daily Precip (in)12 Fr USGS Susitna River above Tsusena Creek /\Pa!S000MakAlif30,001 +#-Simulated Tsusena * ia-%\1400|es =e20,000 //16 10,000 {f 18ely ;TEE eeeeeees '|no&&"te he .".a >=>>>a>>=>>>>>c c c c i=i=7 £c ¢c .eee FP PP FF FPP PPIIFE588REEESSSNSRRSA+ssesaerseggeggegrrrs*zeosese Figure 9.2-14.May-June 2013 Simulation,Susitna River above Tsusena Creek 100,000 I ¥I "|0.0 90,000 N 0.2 80,000 H 0.4 | 70,000 i i 06|f \\g60,000 os2 g nh ANA 2 ;80,000 Ne 105 =3 a .|\a 40,000 mm Avg Daily Precip (in)N 128 a -*-USGS Susitna River at Gold Creek |/w '"\30,000 1 alin,8 14. #Simulated Gold Creek 'SS a ie ata20,000 7 ]16 40,000 7 aneif 18 Maa=-*oar ¥0-4 +++Pans.ons han shaded bas ° 20 s s S a s S >a>Pa)>>>Pal >and Pl >>Pa ¢Cc Cc c c c Cc c c CcaorrrareeeeeeeeeeS<gsgeegeeseseaeti esse aetesoesgesg Het seggeggr wren de HC SHR SDNNNONererfFKFNNNNN8 Figure 9.2-15.May-June 2013 Simulation,Susitna River at Gold Creek FINAL DRAFT Page 9-15 May 2014 Za ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. 9.2.3.3 Sun-on-Snow PMF Evaluation The sun-on-snow PMF was developed from a combination of the probable maximum snowpack and maximum historic temperatures beginning on June 1...To develop the maximum temperatures,sunny weather was assumed without any precipitation.With over 90 years of maximum and minimum daily temperature records,Talkeetna provides the longest weather record within the Susitna River watershed.The maximum temperature of the day in the PMF simulation was assumed to be the maximum recorded temperature for the day from the entire period of record.The nighttime low temperatures were based on the daily diurnal temperature change normals at Talkeetna,which ranged from about 19 to 22 degrees F for the corresponding days.The calculated lows should be conservatively high because clear weather should result in above average temperature ranges.The hourly variation in temperature was then interpolated from the daily maximum and minimum temperatures. This method should give roughly the 100-year maximum temperatures for any given single day and probably even more rare average daily temperatures.Having a sequence of these maximum temperatures for 22 consecutive days would represent a heat wave far more rare than a 100-year event.Because the PMF combined events criteria include a probable maximum event combined with a 100-year event (the PMP and the 100-year snowpack;or the probable maximum snowpack and the 100-year rainfall),combining the probable maximum snowpack with a temperature sequence far more rare than the 100-year event is very conservative.A more detailed meteorological evaluation would probably result in a lower temperature sequence.Loss rates were 0.02 in/hr for all sub-basins. Watana Dam site inflows and temperatures at Talkeetna are plotted on Figure 9.2-16. Temperatures were adjusted to other elevations in the watershed using a lapse rate of 2.6 degrees per 1,000 feet of elevation.The resulting peak inflow at the Watana Dam site was 255,000 cfs, and the peak water surface elevation was at El 2060.1,which indicates that the sun-on-snow PMF would not result in the controlling PMF inflow for Watana.The 22-day volume of snowmelt was equivalent to 114%of the average annual runoff at the Watana Dam site,or an average of 24 inches of snowmelt runoff over the entire watershed tributary to Watana.The controlling PMF has a higher peak inflow and resulting peak water surface elevation,as described in the following section. FINAL DRAFT Page 9-16 May 2014 --Z-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. 300,000 100 250,000 A 90 200,000 \i \N\A i \i |i ||\\f 30 z 8 50,000 |||yi |||||||||||||||70 SaVVPAYWV|g«bh qz-m™5PL2100,000 -60 &\SS/-Flow (cfs)at Watana 50,000 50/-Temperature (deg F) - 0 40 4-June2-June3-June4June§-June6-June7-June8-June9-June10-June11-June12-June13-June14-June15-June16-June17-June18-June49-June20-June21-June22-JuneFigure 9.2-16.Sun-on-Snow PMF and Air Temperatures Although the previously described combined events of snowpack and temperature represent a case with at least the rarity necessary for a PMF scenario,additional HEC-1 runs were made to define a temperature sequence necessary to develop a peak reservoir water level equal to the controlling PMF case.It was found that all temperatures in the previously described scenario would have to be increased by about 7 degrees F,resulting in a peak inflow of 297,000 cfs and a peak reservoir level at El 2064.8.This type of temperature sequence that is totally unprecedented in both duration and magnitude,and must also be coincident with a probable maximum snowpack that should exert a cooling influence on temperatures,is considered to represent excessive conservatism and is eliminated as a potentially controlling PMF case. 9.3 Selected PMF and Spillway Sizing With consideration given to all PMF case runs and to the notably high sensitivity to loss rates, wind speed and temperature input data,Case $3 was determined to be the critical PMF case and was selected for spillway sizing.Based on a recommendation from the FERC Independent Board of Consultants,the spillway crest level used in the PMF case runs was raised by 10 feet from El 2000 to El 2010.The spillway width was sized with the Case $3 critical PMF to provide essentially the same spillway capacity as was used in all of the PMF case runs. FINAL DRAFT Page 9-17 May 2014 -za-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. The peak PMF inflow was estimated to be 310,000 cfs,the peak reservoir outflow was 282,000 cfs,and the maximum reservoir water surface elevation was at El 2064.5.The PMF inflow hydrograph,outflow hydrograph,and reservoir level for the spillway with crest at El 2010 are plotted on Figure 9.3-1.The 13-day volume of the PMF inflow hydrograph was 3,980,000 acre- feet,which compares to a total reservoir storage volume from El 2050.0 to El 2064.5 (14.5-foot rise)of about 345,000 acre-feet.This means that attenuation of the PMF inflow hydrograph will not be great.For additional comparison,the reservoir active storage between El 1850 and El 2050 would be about 3,380,000 acre-feet.With a spillway crest at El 2010,a total spillway width of 168 feet (4 gates each at 42 feet wide)is necessary to pass the PMF with a reservoir level below the selected maximum level at El 2065.The 168-ft total spillway width is preliminary and subject to change as a result of further design refinements. 400,000 2066 350,000 f 2064 -Inflow 300,000 -Outflow ™s 2062 -Reservoir Elevation 2a250,000 osoYee200,000 Pa |a 2058[|aw 2056Lfme ous 4 _fLZS-_- 0 2050 1-Jun 3Jun §-Jun 7-Jun * 9-Jun 11-Jun 13-JunFlow(cfs)150,000 ReservoirElevation(feet)100,000 Figure 9.3-1.Watana Dam PMF Inflow,Outflow,and Reservoir Elevation The 310,000 cfs PMF peak inflow is about 3.4 times the estimated 100-year flood at the Watana Dam site.The 3.4 ratio of the PMF to the 100-year flood is within a typically expected range. One additional safety check is the ability of the dam to pass the 10,000-year flood (estimated to be 168,000 cfs)with one gate stuck shut.Because the total outflow capability of Watana Dam spillway would be 190,000 cfs at El 2065 with one gate shut,and the Project would have the FINAL DRAFT Page 9-18 May 2014 a ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. capability to pass an additional 32,000 cfs through the low-level outlets,it was determined that the peak inflow of the 10,000-year flood could be passed with one spillway gate shut. 9.4 Comparison with Previous PMF Studies 9.4.1 Snowpack A comparison of the current study snowpack results to those obtained during the 1980s Susitna PMF studies performed by both Acres and Harza-Ebasco is instructive.Table 9.4-1 shows that the 1982 Acres June PMF had a 51 inch SWEin the area tributary to Watana Dam site,and a 49 inch SWE even after eliminating the glacier areas that were assigned an essentially unlimited 99 inch SWE.The Harza-Ebasco May (maximum)snowpack shown on Table 9.4-2 has an average SWE of 16.8 inches,which is comparable to the 15.7 inch May-June 100-year snowpack developed for the current study.The 1982 Acres PMF snowpack SWE appears to be the result of excessive conservatism as it is about 75 percent greater than the Probable Maximum Snowpack as determined in the current study and 5.5 times the average October through April precipitation. Table 9.4-1.1982 Acres PMF Snowpack Snow Water Equivalent Estimate ; Acres Local Average Sub-Basin Sub-Basin Name Area SWE Number (sq.mi.)|(inches)|t0,fe Susitna R.near Denali-Glacial ____|_221_|_99 _or ae Susitna R.near Denali-Non-Glacial ___|694_|_81__| 80 Susitna R.local drainage area above Denali 312 35 _ 210 fsMaclaren near Paxson-Glacial_____|_4 |99 220 Maclaren near Paxson -Non-Glacial 232 62 |_280__|__MaclarenR.local above SusitnaR,confluence _|_307_|_30___180 _|__Susitna R.local above Maclaren confluence _|_477,|_32 _-30,_-__JLake Louise and Susitna Lake _=_42.J _30 _ 340 Tyone R.basin | 1,047 27 |380._|_____Oshetna Rand Goose Creek |735 |9 480 Watana and Deadman Creek local 1,045 57 To Watana Dam Site 5,162 51 To Watana Dam Site Without Glacier Areas 4,897 49 FINAL DRAFT Page 9-19 May 2014 a ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. Table 9.4-2.1984 Harza-Ebasco May PMF Estimate Harza-Ebasco |Drainage Wid.Av. Sub-basin Area Sub-Basin Vicinity SWE Number (sq.mi.)(inches) |2 __|480_|.___Watnana Creek __|_15.8 _|3 __|580_[___KosinaCreek__|_17.4 ___4__|_725 |____Black River 18.1 __5S___}_1,060 _|____TyoneRiver9 Le 146 | |.6 790_|___CoalCreek =-s =|15.7 oe oe 188 |_W.Fork Susitna to Denali_|_17.0_-8__|_762.|__Susitna R_above Denali _|__19.7____9__|_335._|MactarenR,below USGS gage |__14.9__ 10 280 Maclaren R.above USGS gage 19.6 Total 5,180 Weighted Average 16.8 9.4.2 Probable Maximum Precipitation A comparison of the PMP totals for the watershed tributary to the Watana Dam site from among the three available PMP studies is summarized in Table 9.4-3.It is noted that although the Acres 1982 study showed the highest all-season (August)PMP,an August PMF was not developed in that study.The PMP values shown in Table 9.4-3 are similar among the three studies,with the current study PMP values being slightly higher. Table 9.4-3.PMP Study Comparison PMP All-Season PMP (inches)June PMP (inches) Duration Acres 1982 |H-E 1984 |AWA 2014 {|Acres 1982 |HE 1984 |AWA 2014 24 hours 3.07 4.10 4.40 2.15 3.80 4.14 |72hours |_659.|680 |_719_|_461_|630_|676 _ PMP total 12.5 N/A 10.00 8.7 N/A 9.4 (days)(10 days)(9 days)(10 days)(9 days) The available National Weather Service (formerly the U.S.Weather Bureau)PMP guidance document Technical Paper No.47 (Weather Bureau 1963)indicates 24-hour point PMP values for the Watana Dam watershed ranging from slightly less than 10 inches to about 18 inches. These Technical Paper 47 PMP values are now considered to be superseded. 9.4.3 Temperature and Wind Temperature and wind speed input data is used to determine snowmelt in the energy budget method.Daily average temperature and wind speed is available for the Harza-Ebasco 1984 PMF FINAL DRAFT Page 9-20 May 2014 --za-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414.Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. study.Figure 9.4-1 is a plot of average daily temperature at the 2500-ft level for a 9 day (216 hour)period used for the PMP in the current study.Figure 9.4-2 provides a plot of average daily wind speeds at the 4000-ft level for the same 9 day period.The Harza-Ebasco study used a 72- hour PMP that would occur on days 3,4,and 5 on the two plots,corresponding to the periods of highest wind speeds and lowest temperatures.The plots highlight generally higher temperatures and higher wind speeds coincident with the PMP in the Harza-Ebasco study in comparison with those used in the current study. 80 June PMP/PMF Note:For the Harza-Ebasco c study,the 3 day period of lowesti)75 temperatures was coincident "7 1 with the 72-hour PMP. >.14 ry=70 AWA 20 .- =m Harza-Ebasco 1984 i :=[-]. rt) s r o-]a 4 i 60 - a 3po | i i g 50 'ord | .4 iS5:te 'oat457-7"ma er i Lo tH FE -wa te ae 7 7 ; a 7 oi :7 7 LTETECEEETL-CereritS::;ae>35 a :.:;t .r MC :!..||<be ;i i |ry ;us ie ";t 3 Le ?ee i ?$x ho a i to v- i f :Hi 2 Fu i:us 530T -T T T T 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Days Figure 9.4-1.Temperature Comparison -June PMF FINAL DRAFT Page 9-21 May 2014 Zz ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO | AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.asoOJune PMP/PMF Note:For the Harza-Ebasco study,the 3 day period of - highest winds was coincident with the 72-hour PMP.woa_&Ooa !m AWA 2014 , mw Harza-Ebasco 1984Na od|AverageDailyWindSpeed(mph)at4,000-ftElevationLs]oOARTREpeineneaeeeeene.airsee4 5 6 7 Days ©Figure 9.4-2.Wind Speed Comparison -June PMF 9.4.4 Probable Maximum Flood A comparison of PMF peak inflow and outflow rates from among the three available PMFstudiesareshowninTable9.4-4.This basic comparison shows little variation among the three studies regarding peak inflow.The relatively high inflow volume estimated in the 1982 Acres PMF results primarily from the high estimated watershed snow water equivalent antecedent to the PMF as noted in Section 9.4.1,which has since been determined to be unrealistic. Table 9.4-4.PMF Inflow and Outflow Comparison 1982 1984 2014 Parameter Acres Harza-Ebasco MWH PMF PMF PMF [|_____PMF peak inflow(cfs)_=|326,000 _|_309,000 _|_319,000._Poe PME peak outflow(cfs)_____|_302,400,_|__NA __|_282,000._13-Day Maximum Inflow Volume (acre-feet)6,480,000 3,980,000 3,980,000 ___Fixed-cone valves total capacity(cfs)__|_24,000_|__|NA__|_32,000 _Spillway capacity at PMF surcharge (cfs)278,400 N/A 250,000 FINAL DRAFT Page 9-22 May 2014 --Z-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. Table 9.4-5 provides a dam and reservoir elevation comparison with the 1985 Stage I and Stage III Watana Dams and with the current design for Watana Dam.Although the maximum normal pool level is different for all three cases,the comparisons of primary note are the total flood storage and the normal and minimum freeboard values.Freeboard values are preliminary for the current Watana Dam feasibility design.Total flood control storage is similar for all three dams, which reflects the similarity of the inflow PMF and total outflow capacities.The normal and freeboard values are greater for the 1985 Stage I and Stage III Watana Dam because the dam- type was rockfill.The current design calls for a raller-compacted concrete dam that requires less minimum freeboard. Table 9.4-5.Dam and Reservoir Elevation Comparison 1985 (1)1985 (1)2014 Parameter Watana 'Watana Watana Stage |Stage Ill AEA |__Maximum normal pool elevation (feet)___|_2000.0 _|__2185.0 _|__2050.0___50-year flood peak resenwir elevation (feet)__|._2011.0 _|__2191.5 _|__2057.6 __Elevation that spillway begins to operate (feet)_|_2014.0 _|_2193.0 _|_20576 _|____PMF peak resenoir elevation (feet)__|_2017.4_|_2199.3 _|_20645 _| PoTotal flood control storage (feet)_=ATL |14.8 |148PoNormalfreeboard(feet)__=»_|_250 __|._25.0 _|_>15_Minimum freeboard for PMF (feet)7.9 10.7 >3.5 Note:(1)Data from 1985 FERC License Application FINAL DRAFT Page 9-23 May 2014 -z-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. 10.REFERENCES Acres American Inc.,1982.Feasibility Report,Susitna Hydroelectric Project,Volume 4, Appendix A,Hydrological Studies,Final Draft. American Society of Civil Engineers,1997.Flood-Runoff Analysis,Technical Engineering and Design Guides as Adapted from the U.S.Army Corps of Engineers,No.19. Committee on Safety Criteria for Dams,1985.Safety of Dams,Flood and Earthquake Criteria, Water Science and Technology Board,Commission on Engineering and Technical Systems, National Research Council,published by National Academy Press. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission,October 1993.Engineering Guidelines for the Evaluation of Hydroelectric Projects,Chapter I,"Selecting and Accommodating Inflow Design Floods for Dams”. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission,September 2001.Engineering Guidelines for the Evaluation of Hydroelectric Projects,Chapter VIII,"Determination of the Probable Maximum Flood”. Fountain,A.G.,and W.V.Tangborn,1985."The Effect of Glaciers on Streamflow Variations”, Water Resources Research,21(4),579-586. Harza-Ebasco Susitna Joint Venture,January 1984.Probable Maximum Flood for Watana and Devil Canyon Sites,Susitna Hydroelectric Project,Draft Report,Document No.457. Jorgenson,T.,and others,2008,Permafrost Characteristics of Alaska,Institute of Northern Engineering,University of Alaska,Fairbanks. National Weather Service and University of Alaska Fairbanks,2012.Precipitation Frequency Atlas of the United States,NOAA Atlas 14,Volume 7 Version 2.0;Alaska,U.S.Department of Commerce,NOAA. Soil Conservation Service,February 1979.Exploratory Soil Survey of Alaska,United States Department of Agriculture. U.S.Army Corps of Engineers,Hydrologic Engineering Center,1998.HEC-1I Flood Hydrograph Package,User's Manual,June. U.S.Army Corps of Engineers,1998.Runofffrom Snowmelt,EM 1110-2-1406,March 31. FINAL DRAFT Page 10-1 May 2014 --Z-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. U.S.Bureau of Reclamation (USBR),1974.Design of Small Dams,Revised Reprint,Second Edition,United States Department of the Interior. U.S.Bureau of Reclamation (USBR),1987.Design of Small Dams,Third Edition,United States Department of the Interior. U.S.Bureau of Reclamation (USBR),1992.ACER Technical Memorandum No.2,Freeboard Criteria and Guidelines for Computing Freeboard Allowances for Storage Dams,United States Department of the Interior,original publication 1981,revised 1992. U.S.Weather Bureau,1963.Probable Maximum Precipitation and Rainfall-Frequency Data for Alaska,Technical Paper No.47,U.S.Department of Commerce. U.S.Weather Bureau,1965.Two-to Ten-Day Precipitation for Return Periods of 2 to 100 Years in Alaska,Technical Paper No.52,U.S.Department of Commerce. U.S.Weather Bureau,May 1966.Meteorological Conditions for the Probable Maximum Flood on the Yukon River Above Rampart,Alaska,Hydrometeorological Report No.42,U.S. Department of Commerce,Environmental Science Services Administration,Office of Hydrology,Hydrometeorological Branch. Wolken,Dr.Gabriel,2013."Glacier and Runoff Changes Update”,presentation at Technical Workgroup Meeting,September 25,2013,Alaska Division of Geological &Geophysical Surveys. FINAL DRAFT Page 10-2 May 2014 -Z-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. Appendix A Probable Maximum Precipitation Study 14-07-REP by Applied Weather Associates Zw SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. Report 14-07-REP v1.0 Susitna-Watana Hydroelectric Project Probable Maximum Precipitation Study FINAL DRAFT AEA11-022 ie"Faved Prepared for:Prepared by: Alaska Energy Authority 813 West Northern Lights Blvd.LLC for MWH Anchorage,AK 99503 PO Box 175 mene Applied Weather Associates, Monument,CO 80132 May 2014 ==A (@@e ENERGY AUTHORITY 13-1407-TM-030714 THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK The following individuals have been directly responsible for the preparation,review and approval of this Report. Prepared by:Bill Kappel,Technical Lead Reviewed by:Ed Tomlinson,Project Manager Approved by: John Haapala,P.E.,Senior Hydrologist/Hydraulic Engineer Approved by: Brian Sadden,P.E.,Project Manager Disclaimer This document was preparedfor the exclusive use ofAEA and MWH as part of the engineering studies for the Susitna-Watana Hydroelectric Project,FERC Project No.14241,and contains information from MWH which may be confidential or proprietary.Any unauthorized use of the information contained herein is strictly prohibited and MWH shall not be liable for any use outside the intended and approved purpose. Notice This report was prepared by Applied Weather Associates,LLC (AWA).The results and conclusions in this report are based upon best professional judgment using currently available data.Therefore,neither AWA nor any person acting on behalf of AWA can:(a)make any warranty,expressed or implied,regardingfuture use ofany information or method in this report,or (b)assume any future liability regarding use ofany information or method contained in this report. THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO -y. ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ES-1 1.INTRODUCTION 1 LL Background 20...cessssssssssssssccnsesessssscssessenscsssssssesessssseesenecsascsecensceesssessesssseasenees 1 1.2 ODJective oe eeseceseeccescssscssssesscssssssesessnscossssssacosessssssesescesecssoessessassessersseeeesees 3 1.3 APproach 00...eeeeeeeeseseeeeee seeeeeesecesseeesssssssseeseseeosasesnscosusesseeesssccessssosesesneasessssseesecees 4 1.4 Basin Location and DeScription 0.0.0...csessssecsssssceeessceseeeseeesessseseseescesocesesnseneoeseass 8 2.WEATHER AND CLIMATE OF THE SUSITNA-WATANA REGION ..........sc00000 11 2.1 Seasonal Patterns...............esenesseseseesenesseseassssaseseaseaseseneesesaeenessesessssaesasensensssaseeees 11 2.2 -Orographic Influences .....ec csscsscsssssscrssscescessesssssesessssssssusesessesssssuseesessessesesaes 11 2.3 Susitna River Basin PMP Storm Type .........ceessesesesseesesceessessceeesesecesescesessensonees 13 2.3.1 Atmospheric Rivers and Mid-Latitude Cyclones 13 2.4 Storm Types Seasonality 0...csesssscsscsecscessssssscessessssserseessesceessessessssserseseeses 13 3.EXTREME STORM IDENTIFICATION 15 3.1 Storm Search Area......ccscsssesecscesessscctssesssecsesesessssssesssecesesesesossssseeosssssesossesseesreeses 15 3.2 --_Datta SOUPCES ........eet teeecesesesreeescccsscersssceessssoesessscsseessenesessssscesseesesesonsessesesonasones 16 3.3 Storm Search Method...seescsesseesssssssscsssesecsessssccsssssssesessesessecsessssssseeosesseesseees 16 3.4 Developing the Intermediate List of Extreme Storms...cecsscseeseesceessesssceeees 18 3.5 Short Storm List .....eee eeseseeeeeeecessssseesesssessesssssssessssssseseseessssssssesasesseesesesseseneees 19 4.STORM DEPTH-AREA-DURATION (DAD)ANALYSES 22 4,1 Data Collection........ccccscscsscssessesscssssssecsscssccsesssssseecesssssssscesessceessesseassasseeSesseseeses 22 4,2 Ma CUIVES .......eeccsssessesceeccesseeccescsesessssseesesscsecceaeessesoseecssssseesesessscecosssoaeesssoeeaeeese 23 4.3 Hourly or Sub-hourly Precipitation Maps...esesseeeeesceeceeeeseecesesseseessseseeeeeees 23 4.3.1 Standard SPAS Mode 23 4.3.2)NEXRAD Mode 23 4.4 Depth-Area-Duration Program...eeecsscssssseeessccsecseseesessssessssscnscsssssassesesseoes 24 5.STORM MAXIMIZATION 26 5.1 New Procedures Used in the Storm Maximization Process ..........:ssssccssseesseeeees 26 FINAL DRAFT Page i 03/07/14 -y | ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 5.1.1 HYSPLIT Trajectory Model 27 5.1.2 Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs)29 6.STORM TRANSPOSITIONING 33 6.1 Moisture Transposition...........essssscsscesseesccesesssssessessssssssesssssssosesesesossssseeasescesssoeesens 34 6.2 Orographic Transposition...eecesessessescssesscsesssensesssecsscsaesessssosesseesscoseeseeeeeoegs 35 6.2.1 Topographic Effect on Rainfall 35 6.2.2 Orographic Transpositioning Procedure 39 7.PMP CALCULATION PROCEDURES 40 7.1 In-Place Maximization Factor...cscsscsssssscsesesssssssssesescssseessesssseresesseacsaseeseentes 4] 7.2 Moisture Transposition Factor ........escecsssssccseeesssecsssssesescsscsessesssersessescssesesseseeees 42 7.3 Orographic Transposition Factor...eesssscssssscecsssssesssccsscssssesseesssensessscseteatenees 43 7.4 Total Adjusted Rainfall eee cscssesecrseseceeessscsessescsesssssesssccsesssesssssosessesees 45 7.5.Gridded PMP Calculation and Envelopment susssusssvecevscssscssscsssssssecssucssecsseessuseseeess 46 8.SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION OF PMP 48 8.1 Spatial Distribution...esescseesecesssssccsscsceseeesssesssscsensessessesscesseeseseseseesesenees 48 8.2 --Temporal Distribution .......ce ccceeeccesccecseseressssssscsscsecesssssscsessssssessasaeessanseasees 54 9.PMP METEOROLOGICAL TIME SERIES DEVELOPMENT 57 9.1.PMP Temperature Time Series Maximization .........cccscssssscsceeesecssescssseseeeeaeees 61 9.2 Seasonality Adjustments for Moving to Other Months oc.escsessesscsssseessesees 62 9.2.1 Temperature Seasonality Adjustments 62 9.2.2 Wind Speed Seasonality Adjustments 64 9.2.3 PMP Seasonality Adjustments 65 10.RESULTS 67 10.1 Site-Specific PMP Values 0...ecsssssscsseseesscsssesesssesesseessenseesessesseesessenseseeeeseees 67 10.2 PMP Comparison with Previous Studies...cscsesesssesesssseesssseesssceessecsseeeenee 69 10.3.Comparison of PMP with NOAA Atlas 14 oc escsseeesseeesteceesssessssesseceeeeeeeees 71 11.DISCUSSION OF PMP PARAMETERS 73 11.1 ASSUMPTIONS 2...eee etcctectecencesesecssceceessenessessssesessassassssnssssecsesseeeesesseaesssenesseesees 73 FINAL DRAFT Page ii 03/07/14 -2w- SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO arena Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.-13-1407-REP-030714 11.1.1 Saturated Storm Atmospheres _.73 11.1.2 Maximum Storm Efficiency 73 11.2)Parameters oto.ee teeeeeecescesececeseeescscescescencesccseessesesesceesscacessesrscsseenessssssensenseeees 74 12,RECOMMENDATIONS FOR APPLICATION 76 12.1 Site-Specific PMP Applications...c..cccccccsssssssssssssssssssssssssssecsssssseesseesstecstecsecssseessees 76 12.2 Calibration Storm Events .0......ccc sssscesesessessseeseaeeesecseeseceasesseaesesecensssnsesessereoses 76 12.2.1 September 14-30,2012 Precipitation 77 12.2.2 August 14-17,1971 Precipitation 81 12.2.3 August 8-21,1967 Precipitation 84 12.2.4 May 27,1964 -June 13,1964 Precipitation 87 12.2.5 June 3-17,1971 Precipitation 90 12.2.6 June 7-22,1972 Precipitation 93 12.3.Meteorological Time Series for Calibration Events...........cssssssssessssseseeceseeseseeenes 95 12.3.1 September 14-30,2012 Meteorological Time Series 96 12.3.2 August 4-17,1971 Meteorological Time Series 98 12.3.3,August 8-21,1967 Meteorological Time Series 101 12.3.4 May 27,1964 -June 13,1964 Meteorological Time Series 104 12.3.5 June 3-17,1971 Meteorological Time Series 106 12.3.6 June 7-22,1972 Meteorological Time Series 109 FINAL DRAFT Page iii 03/07/14 -Z-A E ALASKAENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 List of Attachments GIOSSATY 0...esscsesescesscesscsecsecscosesenesveessssessesscsessssesssssosscsesessesosesssessecesseserssessecaceaecsasseseeseneenesensses GI-1 Acronyms and Abbreviations Used in This Report.......ssssssssesssssssssseessesssseessssssesesesssenssees A&A-1 Reference ..........csecccsseccesccssscesceessssssessssesesscoessessssassssscesssssaceesceeesseesscccesssssescesessserseseessseeconerses REF-1 Appendix A -Sea Surface Temperatures Climatology Maps ..........cscssscssscetessseesseeeeeeseeseeseees A-l Appendix B -Python Code For Arcgis Pmp Calculation Tool...ec esssesescesceseeceseseseceneeaees B-1 Appendix C -Short List Storm Analysis Data Used For Pmp Development (Separate Binding)...cccssecssscssssesssessscsssccsssessssessssssesseesessssescesssesseseeseesedeseseestensesenseseneees C-1 Appendix D -Storm Precipitation Analysis System (Spas)Program Description .............essee D-1 List of Tables Table 3.1 Long storm list from the storm search.Rainfall values shown are the highest point values in inches over the total storm duration...eeseecseeseeeseeseeseeeees 3-17 Table 3.2 Long storm list storm selection criteria used to derive the intermediate ) 10)000 |eeeee 3-19 Table 3.3 Susitna-Watana short storm list used in the SSPMP analysis.Rainfall values are the maximum rainfall totals produced by the SPAS storm analyses............3-21 Table 7.1 24-hour NOAA Atlas 14 Precipitation Frequency values at the storm center (source)and grid cell #1 (target)locationS........cee essesescserestesesssceersseceasenscenens 7-44 Table 9.1 Stations used for temperature and dew point temperature seasonality AGJUSTMEMNS........cssccesesscrscsssssceeseeccessssescesssssssscssssessssessessesecssseseeeseseerseesteseseeeeees 9-63 Table 9.2 Seasonality adjustments to all season PMP temperature and dew point temperature tiME SCTICS.........ceescsessesssssscsseessetsecssescesseeseesseesecsssesceaeeeseseneeeceatee 9-64 Table 9.3 Stations used for wind speed seasonality adjustments...........c:ccsscsscstsssereeseeeees 9-64 Table 9.4 Seasonality adjustments to all season PMP wind speed time series..............006 9-65 Table 9.5 Stations used for PMP seasonality adjustments.............:ccsccssecsseesreesscessceseeeeenns 9-66 Table 9.6 Seasonality adjustments to all season PMP............csscsssssssessesscseeseeessesseseseeenees 9-66 Table 10.la Site-specific PMP values for Susitna-Watana basin using the August,1967 storm temporal distribution.2.0...eeseceessssecersceeseseessesssasesestssnsenseesetessees 10-67 Table 10.1b Site-specific PMP values for Susitna-Watana basin using the August,1955 storm temporal distribution.00.0....ceceessessssscesesccesesnssessscescessesccsessnserssreenenss 10-68 FINAL DRAFT Page iv 03/07/14 SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. -Zw ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA11-022 13-1407-REP-030714 Table 10.1c Site-specific PMP values for Susitna-Watana basin using the September, 2012 storm temporal distribution,.........ecesceteseeeseeesecsssccssccsesseeeeeseeesseeneenes 10-69 Table 10.2 |Harza-Ebasco 1984 Susitna 72-hour Basin PMP and spring seasonFENALOESIEC0210:10-70 Table 10.3.Acres 1982 Susitna 72-hour Basin PMP and spring season adjustments.........10-70 Table 10.4 Acres 1982 Susitna 216-hour Basin PMP and spring season adjustments.......10-70 Table 10.5 =AWA Susitna-Watana 72-hour Basin PMP and spring season adjustments....10-70 Table 10.6 ©AWA Susitna-Watana 216-hour Basin PMP and spring season adjustments..10-71 Table 10.7.Ratios of AWA PMP to the Acres and Harza-Ebasco studies.«0.0...10-71 Table 10.8 |Gridded basin average 24-hour NOAA Atlas 14 precipitation for the 10-1,000 year return periods.Gridded basin average 24-hour point PMP......10-72 Table 10.9 -Ratio of 24-hour PMP to 100-year NOAA Atlas 14 precipitation................0.10-72 Table 12.1 Six storm events were selected for hydrologic model calibration.................04 12-77 Table 12.2 Station based and radiosonde based lapse rates for September 14-30,2012...12-97 Table 12.3 Fairbanks radiosonde free-air wind speed conversion ratio to anemometer height wind speed for September 14-30,2012...eesecessetseeceecesssseesaceecense 12-97 Table 12.4 -Station based and radiosonde based lapse rates for August 4-17,1971............12-99 Table 12.5 Fairbanks radiosonde free-air wind speed conversion ratio to anemometer height wind speed for August 4-17,1971.we.csscsctssscsessesssscsteesereeetseeesees 12-100 Table 12.6 Station based and radiosonde based lapse rates for August 8-21,1967.........12-102 Table 12.7 _'Fairbanks radiosonde free-air wind speed conversion ratio to anemometer height wind speed for August 8-21,1967.0...ssssssetesecssseesessscesseseseeseeses 12-102 Table 12.8 |Station based and radiosonde based lapse rates for May 27 -June 13,1964.12-104 Table 12.9 Fairbanks radiosonde free-air wind speed conversion ratio to anemometer height wind speed for May 27 -June 13,1964...ecssssssesseetsessrsenseneeens 12-105 Table 12.10 Station based and radiosonde based lapse rates for June 3-17,1971.............12-107 Table 12.11 Fairbanks radiosonde free-air wind speed conversion ratio to anemometer height wind speed for June 3-17,1971...eesssssessesseesensessecssesscesserscseseneess 12-107 Table 12.12 Station based and radiosonde based lapse rates for June 7-22,1972.............12-109 Table 12.13 Fairbanks radiosonde free-air wind speed conversion ratio to anemometer height wind speed for June 7-22,1972.0...cecesssescsssesecssessssessesssseseessenseneeses 12-110 Table D.1 Different precipitation gauge types used by SPAS........sssessessesesseseeseseensnesseneens D-4 FINAL DRAFT Page v 03/07/14 Wy ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 Table D.2 The percent difference [(AWA-NWS)/NWS]between the AWA DA results and those published by the NWS for the 1953 Ritter,lowa storm.........see0+D-23 Table D.3 The percent difference [(AWA-NWS)/NWS]between the AWA DA results and those published by the NWS for the 1955 Westfield,Massachusetts storm.D-24 List of Figures Figure 1.1 Coverage of NWS HMRs as of 2012 (from http://www.nws.noaa.gov/oh/hdsc/studies/pmp.html)............:cessecesssceteseeeeseeeees 1-2 Figure 1.2 Locations of AWA PMP studies as of March 2013.......essssesecseesssreeseerersesseenees 1-3 Figure 1.3 Flow chart showing the major steps involved in site-specific PMP AevelOpMent......cscccceceeseeeeereeeeseeeseesensseseeeesescecessessssseseesssesssesssssesessssesessasssanees 1-5 Figure 1.4 Major Components in Computation of Site-Specific PMP for Susitna-Watana Basin....cscssssssesessecssseersscccsesessecscescecssesseseesesssceanesesessseeseeeers 1-7 Figure 1.5 Susitna-Watana basin location and surrounding topography.............cccscessessseeeees 1-9 Figure 1.6 Susitna-Watana basin,subbasins,and major hydrologic features........c.ssesseseee 1-10 Figure 2.1 Mean annual precipitation based on PRISM 1971-2000 climatology...............2-12 Figure 2.2 Storm seasonality for the Susitna River basin using all storm events from the long Storm list...sessscssctesscsecsscreesesssscssceesessesecscsssssesesecscesereessesseseeseees 2-14 Figure 3.1 Susitna-Watana storm search domain...........:.eeseseecsceeseseeeeceeteeceeeseneecesseseeescens 3-15 Figure 3.2 Short storm list storm locations...ccssscessssscsscseecscesecsecsececceseescetesesesesseessesens 3-20 Figure 5.1 Surface (960mb),850mb,and 700mb HYSPLIT trajectory model results (for the October 1986 storm eVENE.........et esssceecesececeseeeecseesessscoesstseseeeeeeetesees 5-28 Figure 5.2 Daily sea surface temperatures for October 9,1986 over the upwind domain used to determine the storm representative sea surface temperature.................5-29 Figure 5.3 +2-sigma sea surface temperature map for October....eeesceseeetcesceeeesseeeesees 5-30 Figure 5.4 Normal distribution curve with +1-sigma and +2-sigma values shown.............5-32 Figure 6.1 °The universal 90 arc-second grid network placed over the Susitna-Watana Arainage DASIN.......csscssssessescssceevsscsssscssesesssosssscssssceseassssssesseesssescesesssesesesseatees 6-34 Figure 6.2 An example of inflow wind vector transpositioning for August 1967, Fairbanks storm.The storm representative SST location is 1,420 miles south of the storm location.0.0.0....ssessscssssssccsceccesssessessessseescesecsseesseesseesersasesssnees 6-35 Figure 6.3 2,000-foot elevation contours over the Susitna-Watana region..........eeseeeeees 6-36 Figure 6.4 100-year 24-hour NOAA Atlas 14 precipitation over the Susitna-Watana TEQION...ccsessssssscssssvscssesssssssseeessescessneessessecsseusessssssssesssssseesesssssssssesesonssasarsasosseases 6-38 FINAL DRAFT Page vi 03/07/14 SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO -yO ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 Figure 7.1 Example of NOAA Atlas 14 proportionality between the Fairbanks, 1967 DAD Zone 1 storm center and the Susitna River basin grid cell #1.........7-44 Figure 8.1 Moisture Transposition Factors over the basin.........cccssssscssesssseeseseececseseneees 8-49 Figure 8.2 Orographic Transposition Factors over the basin............cscssccesccsscesseesseseeeseeens 8-50 Figure 8.3a Susitna River basin 24-hour gridded PMP..............essesccssssescssseeceeceesseetesceaeeseees 8-51 Figure 8.3b Susitna River basin 72-hour gridded PMP.«0.00...eseseeseeseesceeeeseeesees desseseesseeee 8-52 Figure 8.3c Susitna River basin 216-hour gridded PMP.ou...cece cessssesseceeeseeeseeeeeeeeseteteeeecees 8-53 Figure 8.4 Depth-Duration PMP curve used to interpolate accumulated PMP at Hourly intervals.........cecsescscsssssssssessscessessseeessessessecsssessecessessesetseesseeesseeeeseeeees 8-54 Figure 8.5 August 1955,Denali NP mass curve pattern used for the temporal ,distribution of the Susitna-Watana PMP.............-cscssssssceseseereescesseseseeseesesaeenees 8-55 Figure 8.6 August 1967,Fairbanks storm mass curve pattern used for the temporal distribution of the Susitna-Watana PMP..0.........eeeeseccesecceeecescesscceesscesecseceaesesenesaceerseaseeses 8-55 Figure 8.7 August 2012,Old Tyonek storm mass curve pattern used for the temporal distribution of the Susitna-Watana PMP..........cccscsscesesseseeeeceseeeetsetenseseeesensenss 8-56 Figure 9.1 Methodology used to create the normalized 312-hour meteorological tHIME SCTICS......ceeeeecesceseeecceccescescessescesetscecessesceaserscseessecseesceseseaceesensseseeeeeessersensonees 9-58 Figure 9.2 Indexed temperature and dew point temperature for the six storm events for a base elevation Of 2,500 feet............ecccssccscesccssesessscseesesesccecsssesessssesssessosses 9-59 Figure 9.3 Indexed monthly averaged profiles for June,August,September and average August/September for a base elevation of 2,500 feet.0.0...eeeesceseeeee 9-60 Figure 9.4 PMP non-maximized temperature and dew point temperature data based on the average profiles for August/September for a base elevation of 2,500 feet and lapse rate of -2.63°F per 1,000 feet.0.esssstccesecesseceeeeesseesseesseeeeeses 9-60 Figure 9.5 Final PMP wind speed values based on the average profiles for August/September for a base elevation of 2,500 feet...cs escsscssteeeeesseeeeeeeees 9-61 Figure 9.6 Final maximized PMP temperature and dew point temperature data based on the average profiles for August/September for a base elevation of 2,500-ft and lapse rate of -2.63°F per 1,000 feet.0...eeesceeesceecesceceeceseesseecceeseeeseeeens 9-62 Figure 9.7 Daily average temperature based on ten stations 30-year climate normal around the Susitna-Watana basin........ce eesscsesesesseeescescensensseesceecesseeeeeecseeeess 9-63 Figure 12.1.Total storm rainfall for SPAS 1256 across Susitna-Watana drainage..............12-78 Figure 12.2 |Susitna-Watana sub-basin average accumulated rainfall SPAS 1256..............12-79 Figure 12.3.Susitna-Watana sub-basin average incremental rainfall SPAS 1256...............12-80 FINAL DRAFT Page vii 03/07/14 SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. Zz ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA11-022 13-1407-REP-030714 Figure 12.4 Figure 12.5 Figure 12.6 Figure 12.7 Figure 12.8 Figure 12.9 Figure 12.10 Figure 12.11 Figure 12.12 Figure 12.13 Figure 12.14 Figure 12.15 Figure 12.16 Figure 12.17 Figure 12.18 Figure 12.19 Figure 12.20 Figure 12.21 Figure 12.22 Figure 12.23 Figure 12.24 Total storm rainfall for SPAS 1269 across Susitna-Watana drainage..............12-81 Susitna-Watana sub-basin average accumulated rainfall SPAS 1269..............12-82 Susitna-Watana sub-basin average incremental rainfall SPAS 1269...............12-83 Total storm rainfall for SPAS 1270 across Susitna-Watana drainage..............12-84 Susitna-Watana sub-basin average accumulated rainfall SPAS 1270........severe 12-85 Susitna-Watana sub-basin average incremental rainfall SPAS 1270...............12-86 Total storm rainfall for SPAS 6008 across Susitna-Watana drainage..............12-87 Susitna-Watana sub-basin average accumulated rainfall SPAS 6008..............12-88 Susitna-Watana sub-basin average incremental rainfall SPAS 6008...............12-89 Total storm rainfall for SPAS 6009 across Susitna-Watana drainage..............12-90 Susitna-Watana sub-basin average accumulated rainfall SPAS 6009..............12-91 Susitna-Watana sub-basin average incremental rainfall SPAS 6009...............12-92 Total storm rainfall for SPAS 6010 across Susitna-Watana drainage..............12-93 Susitna-Watana sub-basin average accumulated rainfall SPAS 6010..............12-94 Susitna-Watana sub-basin average incremental rainfall SPAS 6010...............12-95 Temperature and dew point time series based on surface data at Summit,Alaska with a base elevation of 2,400-ft and lapse rate of -2.40°F for September 14-30,2012...cs cscsscseescceessscseesessessseseseserecesasensesesessseseaesensenees 12-98 Wind speed data based on Fairbanks free-air wind speeds with an adjustment ratio of 0.62 applied to represent anemometer level wind speeds for September 14-30,2012.oe cecsesesecsseecececeescsessesecssseseesesseesecsereeaes 12-98 Temperature and dew point temperature series based on surface data at Summit,Alaska with a base elevation of 2,400-ft and lapse rate of -2.85°F for August 4-17,1971.vu.ectseseesescsecersessccessssseerssecesssesesessersnesesesesesneeees 12-100 Wind speed data based on Fairbanks free-air wind speeds with an adjustment ratio of 0.666 applied to represent anemometer level wind | speeds for August 4-17,197]occ cesssssscsssesccsscceseesesersesssceesescesssseesesteneereneeees 12-101 Temperature and dew point temperature series based on surface data at Summit,Alaska with a base elevation of 2,400-ft and lapse rate of -2.87°F for AUgUSt 8-21,1967.0...cscesccesssssscscsscesecsscssesesscesceeeesseesetseterseaseoeasetsatsaseaseneeees 12-103 Wind speed data based on Fairbanks free-air wind speeds with an adjustment ratio of 0.610 applied to represent anemometer level wind speeds for August 8-21,1967.00...csccessscceecesscssesssesssnseersecescesesasesesensensenees 12-103 FINAL DRAFT Page viii 03/07/14 -y ., ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 Figure 12.25 Figure 12.26 Figure 12.27 Figure 12.28 Figure 12.29 Figure 12.30 Temperature and dew point temperature series based on surface data at Summit,Alaska with a base elevation of 2,400-ft and lapse rate of -3.57°F for May 27 -June 13,1964.ee eeecetceeeecerseeeesenes Mesevssscossscsssseccneseseaeeenes 12-105 Wind speed data based on Fairbanks free-air wind speeds with an adjustment ratio of 0.614 applied to represent anemometer level wind speeds for May 27 -June 13,1964...essssecscscnssessesessseessersseseeesesseesees 12-106 Temperature and dew point temperature series based on surface data at Summit,Alaska with a base elevation of 2,400-ft and lapse rate of -2.90°F for Jue 3-17,1971.occ cccssescecceesscnecscccsssessssceesescesecessessesesecvessssepeceecesscsessenenses 12-108 Wind speed data based on Fairbanks free-air wind speeds with an adjustment ratio of 0.785 applied to represent anemometer level wind speeds for June 3-17,L971.ee esessssessscsesccssssesesseesscssesceesteeeseesseseeseeseeseees 12-108 Temperature and dew point temperature series based on surface data at Summit,Alaska with a base elevation of 2,400-ft and lapse rate of -2.85°F for Jue 7-22,1972.oe ceeeesescesceecesseseesececcescseesenasenesesececesacsensenesaeeaeessssessereeseeneenees 12-110 Wind speed data based on Fairbanks free-air wind speeds with an adjustment ratio of 0.887 applied to represent anemometer level wind speeds for Jume 7-22,1972.cecscsescssscsssescsssscessesessssseesescseesecssseseneneseeeeeees 12-111 Figure D.1 SPAS flow Chart...ce ceceesecsecsssescsssescesseesecssesessrecessseceeseesecesseasensesseescseseaneess D-2 .FigureD.2 Sample SPAS "basemaps:”(a)A pre-existing (USGS)isohyetal pattern across flat terrain (SPAS #1209),(b)PRISM mean monthly (October) precipitation (SPAS #1192)and (c)A 100-year 24-hour precipitation grid from NOAA Atlas 14 (SPAS #1138)...scesseesssceceeeesceccecssseeceseeeeseesees D-6 Figure D.3._--U.S.radar locations and their radial extents of coverage below 10,000 feet above ground level (AGL).Each U.S.radar covers an approximate 285 mile radial extent over which the radar can detect precipitation..........ceeeccessereeneees D-7 Figure D.4 -(a)Level-IT radar mosaic of CONUS radar with no quality control,(b)WDT quality controlled Level-II radar mOSaIC.0...scsessetcseseceesesscsessereescescsneteeseeeeees D-8 Figure D.5 _Illustration of SPAS-beam blockage infilling where (a)is raw,blocked radar and (b)is filled for a 42-hour storm eVent........scsccssessesscssssssceecssceresneeneeees D-9 Figure D.6 Example of disaggregation of daily precipitation into estimated hourly precipitation based on three (3)surrounding hourly recording gauges.............D-11 Figure D.7_Sample mass curve plot depicting a precipitation gauge with an erroneous observation time (blue line).X-axis is the SPAS index hour and the y-axis is inches.The statistics in the upper left denote gauge type,distance from target gauge (in km),and gauge ID.In this example,the center gauge (blue line)was found to have an observation error/shift of 1 day..........sseeeees D-12 FINAL DRAFT Page ix 03/07/14 ---y A E ASUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO rerireey Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 Figure D.8 -_Depictions of total storm precipitation based on the three SPAS interpolation methodologies for a storm (SPAS #1177,Vanguard,Canada)across flat terrain:(a)no basemap,(b)basemap-aided and (3)radar.........csesesceeseseeeseeee D-13 Figure D.9 -Example SPAS (denoted as "Exponential”)vs.default Z-R relationship (SPAS #1218,Georgia September 2009).0.0...cscssssscescessessssssssessesssseseeneeeeees D-14 Figure D.10 Commonly used Z-R algorithms used by the NWS............cccsssssssecceteeneeseeeees D-15 Figure D.11 Comparison of the SPAS optimized hourly Z-R relationships (black lines) versus a default Z=75R2.0 Z-R relationship (red line)for a period of 99 hours or a Storm over southern California...eeeseecssssssscceescsesseccssseeessseessresnseens D-16 Figure D.12 A series of maps depicting 1-hour of precipitation utilizing (a)inverse distance weighting of gauge precipitation,(b)gauge data together with a climatologically-aided interpolation scheme,(c)default Z-R radar-estimated interpolation (no gauge correction)and (d)SPAS precipitation for a January 2005 storm in southern California,USA.00...escssscsscssseeeseesseeeseees D-17 Figure D.13.Z-R plot (a),where the blue line is the SPAS derived Z-R and the black line is the default Z-R,and the (b)associated observed versus SPAS scatter plot at gauge locations.........ce sssessesseeceescseessccscesscsecsssensessessesaeseseseeeseees D-18 Figure D.14 Depiction of radar artifacts.(Source:Wikipedia).........ccssssessseessessseceseesseeees D-20 Figure D.15 "Pyramidville”Total precipitation.Center =1.00”,Outside edge =0.10”......D-22 Figure D.16 10-hour DA results for "Pyramidville”;truth vs.output from DAD software..D-22 Figure D.17 Various examples of SPAS output,including (a)total storm map and its associated (b)basin average precipitation time series,(c)total storm precipitation map,(d)depth-area-duration (DAD)table and plot...............s00 D-25 Page x 03/07/14FINALDRAFT -Z- ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1 407-REP-030714 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Applied Weather Associates (AWA)has completed a site-specific Probable Maximum Precipitation (SSPMP)study for the Susitna River basin located south of the Alaska Range and north east of Anchorage in Alaska.The purpose of the study was to determine PMP values specific to the watershed,taking into account topography,climate and storm types that affect the region. The approach used in this study was consistent with those used in the numerous PMP studies thatAWAhascompletedsince1996.This is a storm-based approach similar to the methods andprocessesemployedbytheNationalWeatherService(NWS)in the development of the various Hydrometeorological Reports (HMRs)to the extent the data and current understanding of meteorological processes supports those previous methods.|The World Meteorological Organization (WMO)manual for PMP determination (WMO 2009)recommends this storm-based approach when sufficient data are available.This approach identified extreme rainfall events that have occurred over a wide region around southern Alaska from Fairbanks to the Gulf of Alaska west to the Aleutians Island and east to the northern Alaska Panhandle..These storms have meteorological and topographical characteristics similar to extreme rainfall storms that could occur over the Susitna-Watana basin.The largest of these rainfall events were selected for detailed analyses and PMP development. Nine rainfall events were identified as having similar characteristics to PMP-type events that could potentially occur over the Susitna River basin and could potentially influence the PMP values. Each of these storms were analyzed by AWA for this study using the Storm Precipitation Analysis System (SPAS).Some storms had more than one Depth-Area-Duration (DAD)zone analyzed bySPAS.A total of 13 unique DAD zones were used in the final PMP development for this study. The general concepts employed to derive the SSPMP values from rainfall maximization,storm transpositioning,and elevation moisture adjustments were consistent with those used in HMR 57 (Hansen et al.1994)and in the numerous PMP studies completed by AWA (Tomlinson et al.2006- 2013,Kappel et al.2011-2014).Further,information and processes detailed in Technical Paper 47 (1963),as well as the United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE)(1975)and Acres (1982) feasibility studies,were used where appropriate.New techniques and databases were used in the study to increase accuracy and reliability,while adhering to the basic approach used in the HMRs and in the WMO Manual.Two updated analysis methodologies were utilized in this study.The first was the use of the Orographic Transposition Factor (OTF),which objectively quantifies the effects of terrain on rainfall enhancement and depletion.This process replaces the NWS K factor/Storm Separation Method (see HMR 57 Section 6 and 8),and allows the unique and highly variable topography at both the in-place storm location and the Susitna River basin to be properly represented in the PMP values and subsequent Probable Maximum Flood (PMF)modeling.The second was the use of the HYSPLIT trajectory model (Draxler and Rolph 2010),which was used to FINAL DRAFT Page ES-1 03/07/14 yy 'ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 evaluated the general location of the moisture source regions originating over water.These regions were identified using a NWS reanalysis interface. New storm maximization factors were computed for each storm of the nine most significant storms using an updated sea surface temperature (SST)climatology and a ship report/satellite SST database (Reynolds et al.2007 and Kent et al.2007,NCDC DS 540.0).Each historic extreme rainfall event used for PMP development was maximized,transpositioned,and orographically adjusted to a series grid points covering the entire Susitna River basin using methods consistent with HMR 57 and previous AWA PMP studies when possible and modified to work on a gridded basis.The governing equation used for computation of the SSPMP values for the Susitna River basin is shown in Equation ES.1. PMPyhr =Panr *IPMF *MTF *OTF ES.1 where: PMPyar is the SSPMP value at the x-hour duration for the 5,131-square mile Susitna River basin (target location); Py is the x-hour 5,131-square mile precipitation observed at the historic in-place storm location (source location); In-Place Maximization Factor (IPMF)is the adjustment factor that increases a storm's maximum amount of atmospheric moisture that could have been present to the storm for rainfall production.It is the ratio of the maximum amount to the actual amount of atmospheric moisture that was available to the storm; Moisture Transposition Factor (MTF)is the adjustment factor which accounts for the difference in available moisture between the location where the storm occurred and the Susitna- Watana basin; Orographic Transposition Factor (OTF)is obtained from the results of the comparison of the 24-hour precipitation frequency characteristics between the storm target and source locations. The OTF accounts for differences between orographic effects at the historic in-place storm location and the grid point being evaluated within the Susitna-Watana basin. A total of 4,767 grid cells,at a resolution of .025°decimal degrees x .025°decimal degrees,were analyzed over the Susitna-Watana basin.The resulting values were analyzed hourly for a total of 216-hours and provided by sub-basin average for use in PMF modeling.These data were distributed spatially the precipitation climatology from NOAA Atlas 14 Volume 7 (Perica et al. 2012).The temporal distribution of the hourly rainfall accumulations followed the temporal pattern FINAL DRAFT Page ES-2 03/07/14 -wZ- ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.1 3-1 407-REP-03071 4 of three historic storms,each with a distinct accumulation pattern.This procedure is preferred compared to moving each storm to the centroid of the basin because it captures the spatial and temporal variability of PMP rainfall as it would occur over the complex terrain of the Susitna- Watana basin.Values were derived for the all-season period,extending from July 1-August 15, with an additional set of seasonality adjustments for use in defining the PMP rainfall from April 1 through October 31.° The last component of the PMP determination process was the development of the meteorological time series used for snowmelt calculations prior to,coincident with,and after the PMP rainfall period.Hourly values for temperatures,dew points,and wind speeds were derived using historic observed conditions during similar rainfall periods.These values were then maximized to represent the expected conditions during the PMP rainfall.Values were derived representing July 1-August 15,with an additional set of seasonality adjustments for use in defining the meteorological time series from April 1 through October 31. FINAL DRAFT |Page ES-3 03/07/14 -y ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 1.INTRODUCTION This study provides the Site-Specific Probable Maximum Precipitation (SSPMP)values and development procedures for use in the computation of the Probable Maximum Flood (PMF)for the Susitna River basin in the southern Alaska. 1.1 Background Definitions of Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP)are found in most of the Hydrometeorological Reports (HMRs)issued by the National Weather Service (NWS).The definition used in the most recently published HMR is "theoretically,the greatest depth of precipitation for a given duration that is physically possible over a given storm area at a particular geographical location at a certain time of the year.”(HMR 59,pg.5).Since the mid-1940s,several government agencies have been developing methods to calculate PMP in various regions of the United States.The NWS (formerly the U.S.Weather Bureau)and the Bureau of Reclamation have been the primary agencies involved in this activity.PMP values from their reports are used to calculate the PMF,which,in turn,is often used for the design of significant hydraulic structures. The generalized PMP studies currently in use in the conterminous United States include:HMR 49 (1977)for the Colorado River and Great Basin drainage;HMRs 51 (1978),52 (1982)and 53 (1980) for the U.S.east of the 105th meridian;HMR 55A (1988)for the area between the Continental Divide and the 103rd meridian;HMR 57 (1994)for the Pacific Northwest states west of the Continental Divide;and HMR 58 (1998)and 59 (1999)for the state of California (Figure 1.1).The Susitna-Watana basin is located outside the domain of the HMRs and therefore a SSPMP is required to derive quantifiable and reproducible PMP values. In addition to these HMRs,numerous Technical Papers and Reports deal with specific subjects concerning precipitation (e.g.NOAA Tech.Report NWS 25 1980 and NOAA Tech.Memorandum NWS HYDRO 45 1995).Topics include maximum observed rainfall amounts,return periods for various rainfall amounts,and specific storm studies.Climatological Atlases (e.g.Technical Paper No.40 1961;Short Duration Rainfall Frequency Relations for the Western United States 1986; NOAA Atlas 2 1973;NOAA Atlas 14 2002-2014)are available for use in determining precipitation return periods.A number of specialized and regional studies (e.g.Technical Paper 47;Tomlinson 1993;Tomlinson et al.2002-2013,Kappel et al.2011-2014)augment generalized PMP reports for specific basins and regions included in the large areas addressed by the various HMRs (Tomlinson and Kappel 2009).TP 47 provides PMP values for Alaska for area sizes up to 400 square miles and durations up to 24 hours. FINAL DRAFT Page 1 03/07/14 -w ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 |elD> Figure 1.1.Coverage of NWS HMRs as of 2012 (from http://www.nws.noaa.gov/oh/hdse/studies/pmp.html). The meteorological and topographical settings within and surrounding the large Susitna River basin create unique effects on precipitation and other meteorological variables that can only be resolved through a detailed analysis specific to the basin.Each of the NWS HMR studies addressing PMP over specific regions also recognized that SSPMP studies could incorporate more site-specific considerations and provide improved PMP estimates.Additionally,by periodically updating storm data and incorporating advances in meteorological concepts,PMP analysts can make improved PMP estimates (HMR 57 Section 14 and Section 15.2 Steps 8-9). Previous site-specific and regional PMP projects completed by AWA provide examples of PMP studies that explicitly consider the topography of the basins and characteristics of historic extreme rainfall storms over climatologically similar regions surrounding the basins (see Figure 1.2).These site-specific PMP studies have received extensive review and the results have been used in computing the PMF for the watersheds and regions covered.This study follows many of the same procedures used in those studies to determine SSPMP values for the Susitna-Watana basin.These procedures,together with Storm Precipitation Analysis System (SPAS)rainfall analyses!are used to compute PMP values using a .025 x .025 decimal degree grid over the Susitna-Watana basin. The grid based approach provides improvements in the spatial evaluation of the historic storm 'Appendix D contains a complete description of the SPAS program and its development. FINAL DRAFT Page 2 03/07/14 -yw ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO EAA 22 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 rainfall patterns and how the PMP storm would occur over the highly variable topography unique to the Susitna-Watana basin.In addition,storm specific and generalized temporal distributions can be applied. Montréal,rf -, ake:wee re'L Bostonmes2NewYork2%AG+Philadelphia+4 sana, Francisco...eo co oS ers hs . ut :2 7 Lin 3 9° '9 "Eh :a ,*,Lip /x a :PiMeob¥i.cee a o (7 ','tonif"BAHAMAS Figure 1.2.Locations of AWA PMP studies as of March 2013. 1.2 Objective The objective of this study was to perform a site-specific study to determine reliable estimates of PMP values for the Susitna-Watana basin,as well as develop coincident meteorological time series data (temperature,dew point,and wind speed)for use in snow melt calculation.In addition, guidance was provided on the seasonality of both the PMP values and the meteorological time series values because it was critical to provide information on how those values vary beyond the all-season (July-August for PMP)for PMF modeling.This is because it is very likely that the PMF would result at a time when some amount less than the full PMP could accumulate and be augmented by melting snow pack to produce a larger volume of flood runoff versus the time of the year when the full PMP could accumulate but have significantly less snow melt runoff.This all- season PMP would therefore produce a smaller flood volume than the lesser amount of rainfall but higher amount of snow melt.The most reliable methods and data currently available have been used,with new techniques and data used where appropriate. FINAL DRAFT Page 3 .03/07/14 2 ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEATT ODD Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years..13-1407-REP-030714 1.3.Approach The approach used in this study is consistent with the majority of the procedures that were used in the development of the HMRs,with updated procedures implemented where appropriate.These procedures were applied considering the site-specific characteristics of the Susitna River basin and the unique effects of the topography both in the surrounding region and in the basin.Terrain characteristics are addressed as they specifically affect rainfall patterns,both spatially and in magnitude within the basin.The weather and climate of the region are discussed in Section 2.The process of identifying extreme storms is discussed in Section 3.Procedures used to analyze storms are discussed in Section 4.Adjustments for storm maximization,storm moisture transposition,and orographic transposition are presented in Sections 5,6,7 and 8.The meteorological time series and seasonality of PMP development are provided in Section 9.Results are presented in Section 10. Discussions on sensitivities are provided in Section 11 and the recommendations for application are in Section 12. Procedures used in this study maintained consistency with the general methods used in the HMRs and the previous PMP studies completed by AWA while deviations were incorporated when justified by developments in meteorological analyses and available data.The basic approach identifies major storms that occurred within the region surrounding the Susitna River basin that are PMP storm type (see Section 2.0).This includes the region from central Alaska west to the Bering Strait to the Gulf of Alaska through the Alaska Panhandle (see Section 5.0).The moisture content of each of these storms is increased to a climatological maximum to provide worst case rainfall estimation for each storm at the location where it occurred had all atmospheric process resulting in rainfall production been optimum.The storms are then transpositioned to the Susitna River basin to the extent supportable by similarity of topographic and meteorological conditions.Finally,the largest rainfall amounts from these maximized and transpositioned storms provide the basis for deriving the SSPMP values.Figure 1.3 shows the flow chart of the major steps used in a site- specific storm-based PMP derivation process.Note that the final process used during this study incorporated the use of a grid cell by grid cell delineation and detailed evaluation of orographic effects on rainfall within the basin.The details are included in Equation 1 and Figure 1.4. FINAL DRAFT Page 4 03/07/14 -Z- ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 Initial List of Ore StormsConductStorm&Search mer List)4 Daermine MagnitudeDetermineTranspositionabilityRunDAEstimator Review Previous Work In Regions with Similar Meteorology/Topography Identify PMP Storm Type(s)/Potentially a PMP\.Storms (Intermediate Storm List} ec isinnaw iBarrierstoInflow a Moisture Affecting -Identify Final Storm List for PMP F the Basin?aStormList)} ™ sYest =|DAD Available?=Calculate Transposition,Barrier,; Determine Effective Elevation,and/or Orographic |os$i Barrier Height for Factors iEachInflowYiDirection.:Plot and Envelop Depth-Area |ne Run SPAS :urves r Factors Storm ities | Plot Enveloped Depth-Duration Curves 4'hCeFigure 1.3.Flow chart showing the major steps involved in site-specific PMP development. For some of the processes used to derive PMP,this study applied standard methods (e.g.WMO 2009 and Hansen etal.1994),while for others,new techniques were developed.A major advancement utilized during this study was the ability to analyze rainfall and climate data on a gridded basis in a GIS environment.This allowed for in-place maximizations,horizontal moisture transpositioning,and orographic transpositioning using a data grid over the basin.The original SPAS gridded rainfall amounts were analyzed at each storm's in-place location to provide values used for the PMP calculations (see Equation 1.1).The largest of the total adjusted rainfall values at each hour were distributed spatially and temporally over the Susitna-Watana basin.The spatial distribution proved to be very effective in quantifying the unique effects of the highly variable topography on the storm at both the in-place storm location and the Susitna-Watana basin.This process uses the Orographic Transposition Factor (OTF)to quantify the effects of topography on rainfall production and spatial distribution.The OTF is determined by comparing the NOAA Atlas 14 Volume 7 precipitation frequency data (Perica et al.2012)at the in-place storm location versus the precipitation frequency values at each grid point over the basin.The relationship through a range of precipitation frequency values between the two locations results in a ratio indicating if the in-place storm center location is more or less effective at enhancing rainfall versus the grid point over the basin.The OTF is then combined with the in-place maximization factor and the moisture FINAL DRAFT Page 5 03/07/14 -y ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 transposition factor to produce the total adjustment factor for that grid point,for a given storm,for a given duration.This process is then repeated for all grid points in the basin for all duration analyzed.The assumption in the OTF process is that the NOAA Atlas 14 precipitation frequency values adequately represent the expected effects of topography at a given grid point and by upwind and surrounding topography as reflected in the numerous precipitation events that have occurred at that location and within the region used to produce the precipitation frequency estimates. This process replaces the use of the NWS Storm Separation Method (SSM).A detailed description of the NWS SSM method can be found in HMR 55A Section 7,with updates to the method in HMR 57 Section 6.The OTF is discussed in Section 6.2 with example results and calculations given in Section 7.3. Figure 1.4 shows a flow chart of the processes that were used during this study to derive the SSPMP values.Note that most of the processes displayed in Figure 1.3 are included,however the flow chart in Figure 1.4 includes the processes that are unique to this SSPMP study. The governing equation used for computation of the SSPMP values for the Susitna River basin is: PMP xr =Panr *IPMF *MTF *OTF Equation 1.1 where: PMP,y,is the SSPMP value at the x-hour duration for the 5,131-square mile Susitna River basin (target location); Pyhr is the x-hour 5,131-square mile precipitation observed at the historic in-place storm location (source location); In-Place Maximization Factor (IPMF)is the adjustment factor determined using the maximum amount of atmospheric moisture that could have been present to the storm for rainfall production; Moisture Transposition Factor (MTF)is the adjustment factor which accounts for the difference in available moisture between the location where the storm occurred and the Susitna- Watana basin; Orographic Transposition Factor (OTF)is obtained from the results of the calculation which compares the x-hour precipitation frequency characteristics between the basin grind points and the in-place storm location.The OTF accounts for differences between orographic effects at the historic in-place storm location and the Susitna-Watana basin. FINAL DRAFT Page 6 03/07/14 -yw ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 IDENTIFY STORMS TO BE USED IN PMP ESTIMATION y FOR EACH STORM Compute In-Place Maximization Factor Transpose 5,131 mi?Rainfall Value At x- Duration To Each Grid Point Within The Basin *Compute Moisture Transposition Factor *Compute Orographic Transposition Factor *Compute Total Adjusted Rainfall | DETERMINE LARGEST TOTAL ADJUSTED RAINFALL AMOUNT AT EACH GRID POINT ATEACH DURATION / SPATIALLY DISTRIBUTE PMP VALUES BASED ON NOAA ATLAS 14 CLIMATOLOGY AND PREVIOUS STORM PATTERNS | INTERPOLATE HOURLY ACCUMULATED AND INCREMENTAL PMP FROM ANALYZED DURATIONS { TEMPORALLY DISTRIBUTE PMP VALUES BASED ON PREVIOUS RAINFALL ACCUMULATION PATTERNS Figure 1.4,Major Components in Computation of Site-Specific PMP for Susitna-Watana Basin. FINAL DRAFT Page 7 03/07/14 -Z- ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1 407-REP-03071 4 Advanced computer-based technologies,Weather Service Radar WSR-88D NEXt generation RADar (NEXRAD),and HYbrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model trajectories were used for storm rainfall analyses for all storms used in PMP development. New technology and data were incorporated into the study when they improved reliability.This approach provides the most complete scientific application compatible with the engineering requirements of consistency and reliability for credible PMP estimates. Storm maximization (also called moisture maximization)analyses have historically used monthly maximum observed 12-hour persisting dew points as published in the Climatic Atlas of the United States by the Environmental Data Services,Department of Commerce (1969).However,use of surface based dew points (either persisting or average)is only valid for storms where atmospheric moisture can be quantified using land based,surface dew point observations.In this study,sea surface temperature (SST)values were used in-place of dew point temperatures.SSTs were used in HMRs 57 and 59 as well as several site-specific PMP studies completed by AWA where inflow moisture source regions were located over the Atlantic or Pacific Ocean. As part of this study,an updated maximum SST climatology was developed replacing the Marine Climate Atlas of the World (U.S.Navy 1981)used in HMRs 57 and 59.This updated climatology includes monthly mean and +2-sigma maps for the Pacific Ocean from the coastline of the United States to 180°W and from 15°N to the southern Alaska coast.In conjunction with the +2-sigma climatological maps,daily SST maps based on ship and buoy reports used in deriving the storm representative SST values for each storm event (NOAA 2011,Kent et al.2007,Reynolds et al. 2007,and Worley et al.2005). The ESRI ArcGIS,version 10.2 geographic information system (GIS)software environment was used extensively in the study to analyze storms,evaluate climatology data,complete the OTF analyses,delineate the characteristics of the Susitna-Watana basin,identify unique characteristics and terrain features of the region,and produce basin and regional maps. SPAS provided gridded storm rainfall analyses.The SPAS analyses produced high-resolution gridded maximum rainfall datasets at hourly intervals over the spatial extent for the entire duration of each storm used in this study. 1.4 Basin Location and Description The Susitna River basin is located in southern Alaska.The area of the drainage basin is approximately 5,131-square miles.The average elevation within the basin is 3,643 feet and varies from 1,456 feet at the proposed dam site to 13,134 feet in the Alaska Range.Figure 1.5 shows the basin location and surrounding topography.Figure 1.6 shows the topography within the basin and the thirty-four major sub-basins.° FINAL DRAFT Page 8 03/07/14 -Z- ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO |AUTHORITY Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 Watana Dam Site Drainage Arca -Regional Upper Susitna River,Alaska 1sxw Thaw 1stw Dow 9 w aaw wrew wrw4LLi1itiTrT ww i 1a6-W it = -_7 "feyoNis en 6UN=4 re Aa a 7 \A of ;is:iad .ee ie Ave :PL iat Pettil4 er nag Age fla a ial oe Oe |7 af \ot Bi!Sc .- .\Aya \.ver AAinegi:be,"a esGC.USGS: T q q q q LJHewMrwWowwowwwusw Coordinate Systen Alaska Albers Area Gone Non American Datum 1983 Figure 1.5.Susitna-Watana basin location and surrounding topography. FINAL DRAFT Page 9 03/07/14 Zz ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 Basin Statistics for Drainage Area Above Susitna-Watana Dam Site Upper Susitna River,Alaska ow Ho poW :"ew baie ahi wew "rsow urw 46"S0W "ew 63°30N ar"30 N=maul PMP Drainage Area Basin Statistics:Calibration Area Basin Statistics: Area:5,131 mi?Area:978 mi* Centroid:62.84 N,147.37 W Centroid:62.86 N,148.95 W Average Elevation:3,643 feet Average Elevation:3,092 feetMaximumElevation:13,134 feet Maximum Elevation:6,954 feet Minimum Elevation:1,456 feet Minimum Elevation:687 feet ew "ow aersow "ew wr-sow urw HO OW "ew "Coorénate System NAD 1993 AlaskaAlbersPraccton.AbersOmrereMilesDatumNorthAmerean198301020304050 Figure 1.6.Susitna-Watana basin,subbasins,and major hydrologic features. FINAL DRAFT Page 10 03/07/14 ---Z- ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO EAT1O29 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 2.WEATHER AND CLIMATE OF THE SUSITNA-WATANA REGION 2.1 Seasonal Patterns The weather and climate around the Susitna River basin is known for its extreme seasonality and high variability of weather patterns.Moisture feeding rainfall events in the basin arrives on southerly wind flows,with westerly components sometimes involved.The basin is located between two highly contrasting air mass types.Relatively mild and very moist air masses originated from the Gulf of Alaska and Pacific Ocean contrast with dry and cold Polar air masses from the north. Depending on which air mass is dominating the weather at any given time determines the resulting weather conditions.In addition,the basin is large enough that each of these air masses may be affecting different portions of the basin at the same time.During the months from November through March,temperatures are cold enough that rainfall is rare,and when it occurs it is light enough that flooding is not produced.Starting in April,a rapid transition takes places as warmer temperatures and higher levels of moisture begin to affect the region.Chances for rain increase across the lower elevations closer to the Gulf of Alaska.For most of April and often into May, significant snow pack remains.Over the interior and higher elevations of the basin,significant snow pack often stays well into June.This combination of rain on snow has resulted in some of the largest flood of record for the basin. The peak season for rainfall occurs from July through early September as the storm track from the Pacific Ocean and Gulf of Alaska intensifies and combines with the highest amount of atmospheric moisture.In rare instances,remnant Tropical Storm moisture becomes entrained in these storms and enhances the rainfall across southern 'and interior Alaska.An excellent example of this scenario was the Great Fairbanks Flood of August 19677.Rare heavy rainfall events,such as the September 2012 and October 1986,provide examples when the rain season is extended beyond expected time frames. (2.2.Orographic Influences Rainfall in the region of the Susitna River basin is controlled by the orographic effect associated with the steep rise in elevation from sea level to over 12,000 feet south of the basin along the coastal mountains which intercepts most of the moisture moving in from the Gulf of Alaska. However,a major gap in the mountainous terrain occurs through the Cook Inlet and up the Susitna River valley.This allows significant amounts of low level moisture to move into the lower reaches of the Susitna River basin and into the western portions of the basin.In addition,as this moisture encounters the rising elevations of the Alaska Range around Denali as well as the higher elevation at the edge of the basin,it is forced to rise and precipitation enhancement occurs.In combination, all these upwind and along basin higher elevation serve to limit the amount of low-level moisture ?http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Fairbanks,Alaska FINAL DRAFT Page 11 03/07/14 Zz ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 reaching into the basin,especially the middle and eastern interior portions.Therefore,average precipitation amounts fall off very quickly within the basin,especially for elevation below 5,000 ft (the majority of the area within the basin).This effect is known as a rainshadow and it is imperative that the PMP value reflect this phenomena.Because of the unique topographic situations both upstream and within the basin,PMP-type rainfall is rare within the basin,but common at upwind locations.Therefore,extensive evaluations were completed to quantify the _effects of topography on rainfall spatially and in magnitude,and to provide information on how storms are transpositioned the basin. The topography within the basin also creates distinct rainfall patterns with extreme variations within the basin.The heaviest precipitation occurs at the western edge of the basin and along the higher elevation of the northern portion of the basin along the Alaska Range.Mean annual precipitation varies from just over 10 inches in the lower elevations of the southeastern portion of the basin to over 60 inches in the Alaska Range in the northeastern portion of the basin (Figure 2.1). At elevations above 5,000 ft,precipitation can be in the form of snow any time of the year. Mean Annual Precipitation PRISM 1971-2000 . :ee ae so ;ONT eons a a,See eee¢we aognreneign =a Se EEte ee Precipitation finches) Bis-10 (15-16f§2t -2¢[7J41-60 [7121-200 - N (1-125)17-18]28-30 fst-80 [201-280 a 80 ee(7)13-14[7]19-20[[]31 -40 [oj 8t -120 [7]281 -soo 0 60 100 200 Jan,2013 Figure 2.1,Mean annual precipitation based on PRISM 1971-2000 climatology. FINAL DRAFT Page 12 03/07/14 -Z- ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO EATS ODD Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.:13-1407-REP-030714 2.3 Susitna River Basin PMP Storm Type The region around the basin is directly influenced by strong areas of low pressure (mid-latitude cyclones)moving in from the Pacific Ocean and Gulf of Alaska.These storms,referred to as synoptic storms,often bring with them very active storm dynamics (lift)and high levels of moisture from locations as far south as the subtropics north of Hawaii and points westward.This combination of enhanced lift and moisture often produces widespread heavy rainfall that may last three or more days.When these storms are able to tap into high levels of moisture supplied by the subtropical regions in and around the central Pacific Ocean,extreme rainfalls can occur.This type of scenario is known as an Atmospheric River.On the upslope regions upwind of the Susitna- Watana basin,the storms are further enhanced by orographic processes associated with the steep terrain encountered as they move onshore and are forced to rise over the slopes of the Coastal -Range and Alaska Range.As discussed in the previous section,much of this atmospheric moisture precipitates on the upwind slopes,thereby eliminating much of the low-level atmospheric moisture by the time it reaches the basin.Therefore,extreme rainfall events are rare in the basin and rainfall amounts are generally less than areas to the west and south of the basin.Synoptic storms cover large areas and produce heavy rains over relatively long periods.This storm type is most common from late June through early October. 2.3.1 Atmospheric Rivers and Mid-Latitude Cyclones An Atmospheric River is an elongated,narrow,water vapor transport band located in the warm sector of a mid-latitude cyclone,often enhanced by convergence of local moisture (Bao et al.2006). Atmospheric Rivers contain warm temperatures relative to normal in the surrounding air mass, enhanced water vapor and a strong low-level jet approximately 5,000 ft above the surface (Zhu and Newell 1998,Neiman et al.2001,2008,2008,2011,Ralph et al.2003,2004,2005,2006,2011). Ralph (2004)demonstrated that more than 90%of the total meridional water vapor flux in the mid- latitudes is attributed to Atmospheric Rivers. With this type of storm,flooding can be exacerbated antecedent snowpack,especially in the spring season.This scenario is most common between late May and late June after a cooler than normalspringhasallowedhigherthannormalamountsofsnowpacktoremainoverthebasin.High levels of moisture and relatively warm temperatures associated with the Atmospheric River events emanating from the subtropical regions of the central Pacific Ocean result in heavy rainfall on a quickly melting snowpack producing increased runoff.These two factors lead to the largest flood events in the region. 2.4 Storm Types Seasonality The most likely time for a PMP type storm event to occur in the Susitna River basin is from July through early September.However,extreme storms occur as early as May and as late as October. FINAL DRAFT Page 13 , 03/07/14 Zw ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 Figure 2.2 displays the month of occurrence of the individual storm events from the storm search that were considered for PMP development (see Section 3.0).It should be noted that although the heaviest amounts of rainfall occur in the summer months,the higher amounts of snow pack available to combine with the rainfall runoff are likely to produce the largest volumes of flood runoff.Therefore,it is likely that the PMF would result from a combination of rainfall and snowmelt in May or early June. Susitna-Watana Basin Storm Seasonality Number of Events Per Month from Storms Considered for PMP Development 10+NumberofStormsa*T 3¥ 2 4 '_-0 DT LDS eT ae -”;-= \)S}e S}ofsfs&.YY Ry y RS ss S)Xf os°ey?ry y s 8 6¥ro r oe ra ef Month Figure 2.2.Storm seasonality for the Susitna River basin using all storm events from the long storm list. FINAL DRAFT Page 14 03/07/14 -Z- ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO MET aDD Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 3.EXTREME STORM IDENTIFICATION 3.1.Storm Search Area A comprehensive storm search was conducted for this study and included an analysis of all the storms in meteorologically and topographically similar regions to the Susitna-Watana basin. Previous work and documents which discussed and analyzed storm events in the region were also reviewed.These included the reports from the NWS offices in Anchorage and Fairbanks,as well as HMR 57,the Acres (1982)study,and the Harza-Ebasco (1984)PMP work.Nine new storms were identified from the storm search which required full SPAS storm analyses for use in PMP development (Section 4).The primary search area included all geographic locations where extreme rainfall storms similar to those that could occur over the Susitna River basin have been observed.The search area extended from the Alaska Panhandle region ( 54°N)to southern interior Alaska ( 65°N)and from the Pacific Ocean coastline to northwestern interior Alaska (Figure 3.1).This ensured a large enough area was included in the storm search to capture all significant storms that could potentially influence final PMP values for the basin. Susitna-Watana Storm Search Domain 17O°W 168°W 165°W 164°W 162°;W 160°W 158°W 156°W 154°W 152°W 150°W 148°W 146°W 144°W 142°W 140°W 138°W 136°W 134°132°W av pry A Lat af MG BES Saat J6 'Peeps oe Ke, _.4PS6°N onaESON . :ont ' "oo,i _.{Jj Susitna-Watana Basin JaAlaskaPMPStormSearchDomain? pa t T 7 7 T T T164°;62Ww «160i tS WOCISS*WCS2WCISOW CTAB THEW 144w 142°w 140°W 18Ww 9 165,330 &0 D]150 300 600 Figure 3.1.Susitna-Watana storm search domain. FINAL DRAFT Page 15 03/07/14 -y ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 3.2 Data Sources The storm search was conducted using a dataset that included rainfall data from several sources. The primary data sources are listed below: 1.Cooperative Summary of the Day /TD3200 through 2013.These data are published by the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). 2.Hourly Weather Observations published by NCDC,U.S.Environmental Protection Agency,and Forecast Systems Laboratory (now National Severe Storms Laboratory). NCDC Recovery Disk Hydrometeorological Reports Corps of Engineers Storm Studies Other data published by the Alaska State climate office American Meteorological Society journals Personal communications with various members of the Board of Consultants and others involved in this study 9.Watana and Devil Canyon Sites Probable Maximum Flood Report 10.Susitna Hydroelectric Project v4 Appendix APNNAYPY 3.3 Storm Search Method The primary search began with identifying hourly and daily stations that have reliable rainfall data within the storm search area described previously.These stations were evaluated to identify the largest 1,3,and 7 observational-day precipitation totals.Other reference sources such as HMRs and USACE storm reports and USGS flood studies (e.g.Smith 1950,USACE 1975, ACRES 1982,Harza-Ebasco 1984,HMR 42 1966)were reviewed to identify other dates with large rainfall amounts within the storm search domain.The criteria for storms to make the initial list of significant storms (referred to as the long storm list)were events that exceeded the 100-year return frequency value for the specified duration at the storm location. The resulting long storm list was extensively quality controlled to ensure that only the highest storm rainfall values for each event were selected.Each storm was analyzed to verify its precipitation reports and compare it with rainfall amounts associated with other storms. These storms values were plotted to ensure they occurred over similar meteorological and topographic regions as the Susitna River basin and could,therefore be used in the next steps of the PMP analysis.Table 3.1 is the long storm list and represents an initial assessment of all the storms found during the initial storm search.Quality control checks eliminated storms with duplicate rainfall centers,rainfall amounts which were accumulations,smaller rainfall centers FINAL DRAFT Page 16 03/07/14 -yZ | ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 associated with the same storm event,and storms that were deemed not transpositionable to the Susitna-Watana basin,etc. Table 3.1.Long storm list from the storm search.Rainfall values shown are the highest point values in inches over the total storm duration. Total IName ST Lat Lon {Year|Mon |Day!Rainfall COAL HARBOR AK 55400 -160817 {1900 4 23 10.00 COAL HARBOR AK .55400 -160.817 11909 4 3 8.00 CORDOVA WB A AK 60.500 -145.500 11912 9 26 19.75 CORDOVA WB A AK 60.500 -145.500 |1917 9 9 9.40 CORDOVA WBA AK 60.500 =-145.500 |1925 9 20 15.69 CORDOVA WB A AK 60500 -145.500 |1925 10 6 24.12 |CHIGNIK AK 56300 -158.400 |1927 8 15 14.99 CHIGNIK AK 56300 -158.400]1927 9 19 15.43 CHIGNIK AK 56300 -158400/1929 9 8 16.38 CHIGNIK AK 56300 -158400/1930 5 9 18.93 CHIGNIK AK 56300 -158.400/1930 §25 15.78 IDENALI NP AK 63.038 -150.471 |1955 8 22 13.75 CORDOVA AK 60.646 =-145.554 |1955 §2 21.67 CAPE SPENCER AK 58200 -136.633 1956 {1 24 20.93 IMT SPURR.AK 61.346 =-152.329 |1958 7 25 6.62 LITTLE SUSITNA AK 61.854 -149229 |1959 8 18 13.05 CAPE HINCHINBROOK AK 60233 -146.650|]1962 4 13 20.50 CAPE HINCHINBROOK AK 60.233 -146.650 |1962 5 9 29.95 (CAPE HINCHINBROOK AK 60.233 -146.650/1962 5 25 13.75 CAPE SPENCER.AK 58200 -136.633/1966 11 23 15.80 DENALI NP AK 62.846 -150.513 |1967 8 2 12.45 FAIRBANKS AK 65521 -147329 |1967)8 2 12.45 HOMER.AK 59.871 -150.563 |1967 8 2 12.45 ICHIGNIK AK 56300 -158.400/1969 6 4 14.81 'ICAPE HINCHINBROOK AK 60233 -146.650/1969 7 .24 22.90 CHIGNIK AK 56300 -158.400 |1969 10 12 14.68 IBLACK RAPIDS AK 63.471 =-145.479 |1971 8 5 12.17 SUTTON AK 61.904 -148.863 |1971 g 5 11.39 PORTAGE AK 61.004 =-148.663 |1971 8 5 12.17 IDENALI NP AK 62954 =-150.079 |}19807 24 733 ANGOON PWR AK 57.499 =-134.586 |1982 10 12 15.20 IDENALI NP AK 62.829 -151.138 |1986 10 8 11.01 SEWARD AK 60113 -149.513 |1986 10 8 20.80 OUZINKIE AK 57933 -152.500 |1991 11 1 10.76 WHITTIER AK 60.713 -148.779 |19959 19 26.03 SEWARD AK 60.117 =-149.45011995 9 20 9381 BIG RIVERLA AK 60817 -152.300 |1996 =3 22 7.50 IELFIN COVE AK 58200 -136.667131996 9 25 8.61 CANNERY CREEK AK 60.696 -145.688 |2003 9 29 23.69 [PELICAN AK 57950 -136.233 |2005s 11 17 26.87 IBLACK RAPIDS AK 63465 -145.685|2006 8 17 16.12 CANNERY CREEK AK 60.696 -145.688 |2006 10 7 23.63 OLD TYONEK AK 61260 -151.860 |20129 15 15.91 IKEN AI FIORDS NP AK 59610 -150220|2012 9 15 33.96 FINAL DRAFT Page 17 03/07/14 ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 3.4 Developing the Intermediate List of Extreme Storms A multiple step process was followed to develop the list of storms used to define the PMP values.For PMP development,this final list of storms (known as the short storm list)is required to be comprehensive and include all storms which could possibly affect PMP values for the basin.At the same time,there must be a balance to eliminate smaller events that would not be significant for determining PMP values at any area size or duration after all adjustments were applied.Initially,all storms previously analyzed during the ACRES 1982,Harza-Ebasco 1984 or by the USACE were moved to the short storm list.The remaining storms were sorted by maximum rainfall amount.This eliminated events based on different locations reporting rainfall amounts associated with the same event.Further analysis was conducted to verify that each storm was transpositionable to the Susitna-Watana basin.Other checks were performed to see whether conditions within the basin during a storm event would have produced snow instead of rain,whether the storm had enough data available to complete an analysis,and whether the storm was within at least 35%of maximum values from other storms.Table 3.2 displays the results of this iterative analysis,including the reason for elimination or inclusion of each storm.In Table 3.2,the columns highlighted with a green header display the various parameters which were analyzed to determine whether a storm could be moved from the long storm list to the intermediate storm list.Each storm was analyzed going from left to right on the table.Once a storm met or did not meet one of the criteria,no further evaluation using the remaining criteria was completed.A notation was entered into the appropriate column associated with a particular selection criterion (i.e.a "yes”or "no”)with all other selection criteria cells associated with a particular storm left blank.The results of this analysis comprised the short storm list as described in the following section. FINAL DRAFT Page 18 03/07/14 -yw SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA11-022 13-1407-REP-030714 Table 3.2.Long storm list storm selection criteria used to derive the intermediate storm list. |||Total fs tr Sor fo romp)[Name ST Lat Loa {Year|Mom |Dey}Rainfall Analysis to Basin basin Similar Location region Analysis Storm smount (>12.00°) COAL HARBOR AK 55.400 -160.817 |19004 23 10.00 Ne (COAL HARBOR AK 55.400 -160.817]1909 4 3 3.00 Neo CORDOVA WBA AK 60.500)-145.500 19129 %19.75 No CORDOVA WBA AK 60.500 -145.500 19179 Ld 940 'Ne CORDOVA WBA AK 60.500 -145.500]1925 9 20 15.69 Yea CORDOVA WBA AK 60.500 -145.500 |1925.10 6 lz No [CHIGNIK AK 56.300 -158.400 |19278 Is 49 Ne Yes No CHIGNIK.AK 36.300 158.400 |1927 9 »13.43 No Yes CHIGNIK AK =56.300 -158.400 |19299 8 16.38 Ne Ne CHIGNIK.AK $6300 -158.400 |19305 y 18.93 Ne No CHIGNIK AK 56.300 158.400 |19305 3 13.78 Ne Yes DENALI NP AK 63.038 -150.471]1955 8 2 13.73 Yeo CORDOVA AK 60.646 -145554./1955 8 2 21.67 Yes ICAPE SPENCER AK 58.200 136.633 |1956 tl 20.93 No IMT SPURR AK 61346 152329 |19587 2B 6.62 Yes LITTLE SUSITNA AK 61.854 -149.229/19598 18 13.05 Yes ICAPE HIXCHINBROOK AK 60.233 -146.650 |1982 3 ws Ne Yes CAPE HINCHINBROOK AK 60.233 146.630 |1962 $9 95 Ne (CAPE HINCHINBROOK AK (60.233)-146.650 319625 3B B15 Yes (CAPE SPENCER AK 58200 =-136.633 |1966 11 B 15.80 Ne [DENALI NP AK 62.836 =--150.513 [19678 2 1245 Yes FAIRBANKS AK 65521 -147.329 |1967 8 2 12.45 Yes HOMER,AK 59.871 -150.563 |19678 2 12.45 Yes (CHIGNIK AK 56300 -158.400 119696 4 1481 Ne Yes CAPE HINCHINBROOK AK 60233 -146.650 1969 7 u 290 Ne ICHIGNIK AK 36300 -158.400/1969 10 (2 1468 Yes Yes [BLACK RAPIDS AK 63471 -145.499 |1975 Ly 3 11?Yes SUTTON AK 61.904 =-148.863 /1971 8 $N39 Yes PORTAGE AK 61004 -148.663/1975 8 $17 Yes DENALI NP AK 62953 150.079 |19807 u 733 Yea LANGOON PWR AK 57.499 -134.586/1982 10012 15.20 Ne IDENALI NP AK 62.029 151.138 |1986 10 8 11.01 Yes SEWARD AK 60.113 -149.513 |1986 10 8 20.80 Yes OUZINKIE AK 37.933 152.500 ]1991 At 1 10.76 Yes [WHITTIER AK 60.713 -148.779 19959 id 6.03 Ne SEWARD AK 60.117 -149.450/19959 a 9.81 Ne IBIG RIVER LA AK 60817 =-152300/1996 3 2 730 Ne [ELFIN COVE AK 58.200 =-136.667/1996 9 3 8.61 Ne [CANNERY CREEK AK 60.696 =-145.688 |20039 vn 23.6 Ne PELICAN AK 57950 -136.233 {2005 v 6.87 Ne BLACK RAPIDS AK 63.465 =-145.685 ]20068 ie 16.12 Yes CANNERY CREEK AK 60.606 =-145.688 |200610 7 23.63 No Yes TYONEK AK 61.260 151860 20129 15 15.91 Yes NAITFIORDS XP AK 59.610 150.220 |2012.9 15 33.96 Yes 3.5 Short Storm List Each of the storms on the short storm list were evaluated in detail using the SPAS program. Results of these analysis included the development of storm isohyetals and Depth-Area-Duration tables (DADs).Each of these storms was maximized in-place,transpositioned to each grid point comprising the basin.The storm center locations of the various SPAS DAD analyses are plotted for reference in Figure 3.2.Table 3.3 list the final short list of storms. FINAL DRAFT Page 19 03/07/14 yw SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.1 3-1 407-REP-03071 4 Locations of Short List Storm Events Susitna-Watana Basin PMP Study baw 1s ew brew 'Sew "ew wow urw 148°"sw 144°ZW 147 W7Ww CONT|of Exh ee ”niehnwrnbiintidicaelsceanataeanewate2Acme 4 2;Background:NOAA Atlas 14 4 100-year 24-hour PFE (inches)#f »ext ss wti4FAIRBANKSRey<2 ([ji2-14 i”nu E 7 ony 7 eerSPAS1270ZonefCei2-4 [7]44-1 , ert [_]+-6 -ERy 16-12 é eon?[Je-8 [EJ 18-20 j | [2 ]8-10 [__}20-22 FSy,w-120_]i ae *:ff a4"N 7-4 Susitma-Watana pn.SPAS 1269 Zone2 rant£jp oi 'Tpenausp PaB2ZAISSSo4SPAS1272Zonet\on bea.oN 2.(TY |sisasss Des \SPAS 127)Zone 1X7: 4 4 DONNELLY Fin]7/25/1958 RSA]OLb TYO:Fri]SPAS 1273 Zone 1 Veer 9182012 .y UAE ei :SPAS 1286 Zone 1 Oe -wyatt ds "NAigpe,Cee Te cO'N "rw ue w uswCoordnateSystemNAD1983CORS9SAlaska NbersMilesDatu,NAD 1669 CORSE 50 100 150 200 Cova cn 184 CO) Figure 3.2.Short storm list storm locations. FINAL DRAFT Page 20 03/07/14 -y SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA11-022 13-1407-REP-030714 Table 3.3.Susitna-Watana short storm list used in the SSPMP analysis,Rainfall values are the maximum rainfall totals produced the SPAS storm analyses. Total Name ST Lat Lon -|Year|Mon |Day|Rainfall |Precipitation Source DENALI NP AK 63.038 -150.471 1955 8 22 13.75 SPAS 1272 Zone 1 MIT SPURR AK 61.346 -152.329 1958 7 25 6.62 SPAS 1273 Zone 1 LITTLE SUSITNA AK 61854 -149.229 1959 8 18 13.05 SPAS 1271 Zone1 IDENALI NP AK 62.846 -150513 1967 8 2 1245 SPAS 1270 Zone2 FAIRBANKS AK 65521 -147329 1967 8 2 1245 SPAS 1270 Zone 1 IBLACK RAPIDS AK 63471 -145.479 1971 8 5 12.17 SPAS 1269 Zone 2 SUTTON AK 61904 -148.863 1971 8 5 1139 SPAS 1269 Zone 1 IMT GEIST AK 63.638 -146.971 1980 7 24 5.26 SPAS 1268 Zone 2 IDEN ALI NP AK 62.954 -150.079 1980 7 24 733 SPAS 1268 Zone 1 IDEN ALI NP AK 62829 -151.138 1986 10 8 1101 SPAS 1267 Zonel SEWARD AK 60.113 -149.513 1986 10 20.80 SPAS 1267 Zone2 IBLACK RAPIDS AK 63465 =-145.685 2006 8 17 16.12 SPAS 1303 Zone 1 OLD TYONEK.AK 61260 .-151.860 2012 9 15 15.91 SPAS 1256 Zone 1 .FINAL DRAFT Page 21 03/07/14 -y ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 4.STORM DEPTH-AREA-DURATION (DAD)ANALYSES Gridded rainfall values are required for PMP calculations.Therefore,all storms on the short storm list (see Section 3.5)were required to be analyzed using the SPAS program.This program computed the required rainfall values,along with several other products such as mass curves, isohyetal patterns,analysis statistics,and quality control analyses.Detailed results of each of these analyses are included in Appendix C. There are two main steps in the SPAS DAD analysis:1)The creation of high-resolution hourly rainfall grids and 2)the computation of Depth-Area (DA)rainfall amounts for various durations. The reliability of the results from step 2)depends on the accuracy of step 1)(Jones 1969,Gou et al 2001,Duchon and Essenberg 2001).Before this process was automated using SPAS,the storm rainfall analyses were very labor intensive and highly subjective.SPAS utilizes a GIS to create spatially-oriented and highly accurate results in an efficient manner.Furthermore,the availability of NEXRAD data allows SPAS to better account for the spatial and temporal variability of storm precipitation for events occurring since the early 1990s.Prior to NEXRAD,the NWS developed and used a method based on Weather Bureau Technical Paper No.1 (U.S.Weather Bureau 1946). Because this process has been the standard for many years (all DAD produced by the NWS in all the HMRs used this procedure)and holds merit,the SPAS DAD analysis process used in this study attempts to apply the NWS procedure as much as possible.By adopting this approach,some level of consistency between the newly analyzed storms and the hundreds of storms already analyzed by the NWS is achieved.Comparisons between the NWS DAD results and those computed using the SPAS method for two storms (Westfield,MA 1955 and Ritter,IA 1953)produced very similarresults(see Appendix D for complete discussion,comparisons,and results). 4.1 Data Collection The areal extent of a storm's rainfall was evaluated using existing maps and documents along with plots of total storm rainfall.Based on the storm's spatial domain (longitude-latitude box),hourly and daily rainfall data were extracted from our in-house database for specified areas,dates,and times.Rainfall amounts are either observed and recorded each hour (hourly)or once a day (daily). To account for the temporal variability in observation times at daily reporting stations,the extracted hourly data must capture the entire observational period of all daily station reports.For example,if a station takes daily observations at 8:00 AM local time,then the hourly data need to be complete from 8:00 AM local time the day prior.As long as the hourly data are sufficient to capture all of the daily station observations,the hourly variability in the daily observations can be properly addressed. The daily rainfall database is comprised of data from National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)TD- 3206 (pre 1948)and TD-3200 (generally 1948 through present).The hourly rainfall database is FINAL DRAFT Page 22 03/07/14 -y ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 comprised of data from NCDC TD-3240 and NOAAs Meteorological Assimilation Data Ingest System (MADIS).The daily supplemental database is largely comprised of data from "bucket surveys,”local rain gauge networks (e.g.ALERT,USGS,etc.)and daily gauges with accumulated data. 4.2 Mass Curves The most complete rainfall observational dataset available is compiled for each storm.To obtain temporal resolution to the nearest hour in the DAD results,it is necessary to distribute the daily precipitation observations (at daily stations)into hourly values.This process has traditionally been accomplished by anchoring each of the daily stations to a single hourly timer station.However,this may introduce biases and may not correctly represent hourly precipitation at locations between hourly stations.A preferred approach is to anchor the daily station to some set of the nearest hourly stations.This is accomplished using a spatially based approach that is called the spatially based mass curve (SMC)process. 4.3.Hourly or Sub-hourly Precipitation Maps At this point,SPAS can either operate in its standard mode or in NEXRAD-mode to create high resolution hourly or sub-hourly (for NEXRAD storms)grids.In practice both modes are run when NEXRAD data are available so that a comparison can be made between the methods.Regardless of the mode,the resulting grids serve as the basis for the DAD computations. 4.3.1 Standard SPAS Mode The standard SPAS mode requires a full listing of all the observed hourly rainfall values,as well as the newly created estimated hourly values from daily and daily supplemental stations.This is done by creating an hourly file that contains the newly created hourly mass curve precipitation data (from the daily and supplemental stations)and the "true”hourly mass curve precipitation.The option of incorporating basemaps was used in this study.If base maps were not used,the individual hourly precipitation values would simply be plotted and interpolated to a raster with an inverse distance weighting (IDW)interpolation routine or some other mathematical scheme using GIS. 4.3.2 NEXRAD Mode Radar has been in use by meteorologists since the 1960s to estimate rainfall depth.In general,most current radar-derived rainfall techniques rely on an assumed relationship between radar reflectivity and rainfall rate.This relationship is described by the equation (4.1)below: Z=aR?Equation 4.1 FINAL DRAFT Page 23 03/07/14 -yN ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 Where Z is the radar reflectivity,measured in units of dBZ (dBZ stands for decibels of Z),R is the rainfall rate,a is the "multiplicative coefficient”and 5 is the "power coefficient”.Both a and b are related to the drop size distribution (DSD)and the drop number distribution (DND)within a cloud (Martner et al.2005). The NWS uses this relationship to estimate rainfall through the use of their network of NEXRAD sites located across the United States.A standard default Z-R algorithm of Z =300R'%is the primary algorithm used throughout the country and has proven to produce highly variable results. The variability in the results of Z vs.R is a direct result of differing DSD and DND,and differing air mass characteristics across the United States (Dickens 2003).The DSD and DND are determined by a complex interaction of microphysical processes in a cloud.They fluctuate hourly, daily,seasonally,regionally,and even within the same cloud (see Appendix D for a more detailed description). Although SPAS uses Equation 4.1 to determine rainfall rates,the a and b coefficients are explicitly determined for each hour of the storm using a calibration technique.Hourly rain gauge data are used with hourly NEXRAD data in the calibration calculations. 4.4 Depth-Area-Duration Program The DAD extension of SPAS runs from within a Geographic Resource Analysis Support System (GRASS)GIS environment?and utilizes many of the built-in functions for calculation of area sizes and average depths.The following is the general outline of the procedure: 1.Given a duration (e.g.x-hours)and cumulative precipitation,sum up the appropriate hourly or sub-hourly precipitation grids to obtain an x-hour total precipitation grid starting with the first x-hour moving window. 2.Determine x-hour precipitation total and its associated areal coverage.Store these values. Repeat for various lower rainfall thresholds.Store the average rainfall depths and area sizes. 3.The result is a table of depth of precipitation and associated area sizes for each x-hour duration. Summarize the results by moving through each of the area sizes and choosing the maximum precipitation amount.A log-linear plot of these values provides the depth-area curve for the x- hour duration. 4,Based on the log-linear plot of the rainfall depth-area curve for the x-hour duration,determine rainfall amounts for the standard area sizes for the final DAD table.Store these values as the 3 Geographic Resource Analysis Support System,commonly referred to as GRASS,this is free Geographic Information System (GIS)software used for geospatial data management and analysis,image processing,graphics/maps production, spatial modeling,and visualization.GRASS is currently used in academic and commercial settings around the world,as well as by many governmental agencies and environmental consulting companies.GRASS is an official project of the Open Source Geospatial Foundation. FINAL DRAFT Page 24 03/07/14 -y A E ASUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO rerirery Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1 407-REP-03071 4 rainfall amounts for the standard sizes for the x-duration period.Determine if the x-hour duration period is the longest duration period being analyzed.If it is not,analyze the next longest duration period and return to step 1. 5.Construct the final DAD table with the stored rainfall values for each standard area for each duration period. FINAL DRAFT Page 25 03/07/14 Zz ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.1 3-1 407-REP-03071 4 5.STORM MAXIMIZATION Storm maximization (also called moisture maximization in the HMRs)is the process of increasing rainfall associated with an observed extreme storm.In this process,it is assumed the storms being maximized and the PMP storm would have the same storm efficiency (ability to convert moisture in the atmosphere to precipitation).Therefore,the only variable that would increase or decrease the amount of precipitation produced from a given storm would be the amount of moisture available. During the storm maximization process,a quantification of the amount of additional moisture which could have been available to the storm and would have increased the rainfall production in calculated.This is quantified by comparing the storm representative dew points (or SSTs for all storms used in this study)to some climatological maximum and calculating the enhanced rainfall amounts that could potentially have been produced had the climatological maximum value been present versus what actually occurred (Bolsenga 1965).An additional consideration is usually applied that selects the climatological maximum dew point (or SST for this study)for a date two weeks towards the climatological maximum warm season from the date that the storm actually occurred.This procedure assumes that the storm could have occurred two weeks earlier or later in the year when maximum dew points or SSTs are higher.Calculations for each storm used in this study are shown in Appendix C. 5.1.New Procedures Used in the Storm Maximization Process The HYSPLIT trajectory model (Draxler and Rolph 2003,2010)provides detailed analyses of upwind trajectories of atmospheric moisture that was advected into the storm systems.Using these trajectories,the atmospheric moisture source locations are determined.The procedures followed are similar to the approach used in HMRs 57 and 59.However,by utilizing the HYSPLIT model trajectories,much of the subjectivity is eliminated.Further,details of each evaluation can be explicitly provided and the results are reproducible. Using SSTs for in-place maximization and storm transpositioning (discussed Section 6)followed the same procedure used with land based surface dew points.Use of the HYSPLIT trajectory model provided a significant improvement in determining the inflow wind vectors originating over the ocean compared to older methods of extrapolating coastal wind observations and estimating moisture advection from synoptic features.This more objective procedure is especially useful for situations where a long distance is involved to reach warmer ocean regions.Timing is not as critical for inflow wind vectors extending over the oceans since SSTs change very slowly with time compared to dew point values over land.Changing wind directions are of greater importance, especially for situations where there is curvature in the wind fields.Any changes in wind curvature and variations in timing are inherently captured in the HYSPLIT trajectories. FINAL DRAFT Page 26 03/07/14 -Z- ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO fone Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 5.1.1 HYSPLIT Trajectory Model The HYSPLIT trajectory model was used during the analysis of each of the rainfall events included on the short storm list when available (1948-present from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)Global Reanalysis fields)(Mesinger et al.2006).Use of a trajectory model provides increased confidence for determining inflow moisture vectors and storm representative SSTs.The HYSPLIT model trajectories have been used to analyze the moisture inflow vectors in other PMP studies completed by AWA over the past several years.During these analyses,the model trajectory results were verified and the utility explicitly evaluated (e.g.Tomlinson et al. 2006-2011,Kappel et al.2012-2013). Instead of subjectively determining the moisture inflow trajectory,the HYSPLIT analysis was used to determine the trajectory of the moisture inflow for various levels in the atmosphere associated with the storm's rainfall production.The HYSPLIT software was run for trajectories at several levels of the lower atmosphere to help determine the moisture source for each storm event.These included 700mb (approximately 10,000 ft),850mb (approximately 5,000 ft),and storm center location surface elevation'. For the majority of the analyses,a combination of all three levels was used to identify the upwind moisture source location.It is important to note that the resulting HYSPLIT model trajectories are only used as a general guide of where to evaluate the moisture source for storms in space and time. The final determination of the storm representative SST and its location is determined following the standard procedures used by AWA in previous PMP studies and as outlined in the HMRs and WMO manuals.Appendix C of this report lists each of the HYSPLIT trajectories used for each storm.As an example,Figures 5.1 show the HYSPLIT trajectories used to determine the inflow moisture vector from the October 1986 rainfall event. *These are standard elevations for atmospheric analysis.Further,the majority of atmospheric moisture available for rainfall production occurs below the 700mb level. FINAL DRAFT Page 27 03/07/14 -Z-: SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA11-022 13-1407-REP-030714 at60.11N149.51WSource*hPaNOAA HYSPLIT MODEL Backward trajectories ending at 0000 UTC 11 Oct 86 CDC1 Meteorological Data oe SOS oe 00 10/09 12 06 This is not a NOAA product.It was produced by a web user.Job ID:386976 Job Start:Thu Mar 14 15:34:53 UTC 2013 Source 1 lat.:60.1125 lon.:-149.5125 hgts:0,1000,2560 m AGLTrajectoryDirection:Backward Duration:72 hrsVerticalMotionCalculationMethod:=Model Vertical VelocityMeteorology:00002 01 Oct 2086 -reanalysis Figure 5.1.Surface (960mb),850mb,and 700mb HYSPLIT trajectory model results for the October 1986 storm event. FINAL DRAFT Page 28 03/07/14 ? 2 ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO | AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.1 3-1 407-REP-03071 4 5.1.2 Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) The second data set used in storm analyses contained SSTs derived from the various databases available from NOAA.Daily values were generated from the following sources: 1985 -Present:http://dss.ucar.edu/datasets/ds277.7/ 1946 -1985:http://dss.ucar.edu/datasets/ds195.1/ Prior to 1946:http://dss.ucar.edu/datasets/ds540.0/ Observations were taken from ships,buoys (moored and drifting),automated coastal fixed platforms and drilling rigs,and satellite observations of SSTs (Woodruff et al.2005).Analyses are archived to the nearest 0.1°F,with a spatial resolution of 1°in both latitude and longitude.For storm analyses,daily SSTs were used to determine the storm representative SST for each storm event on the short storm list.Figure 5.2 is an example daily SST map for the October 1986 storm event. Sea Surface Temperature Observations (F October 9,1986 ; 184°W «162°W O1GO'W OIS8TWO1S8"W 154°W 152°W 150°;W "ew 4ew aw 14zw 140°W OI38W OTS6"WO134"WO132"WOT0°W128°WO126°W 124"O122"WJi1ran11nLn11alern°7 Ts aesee- 7 :i e e 73 1 e H ry A i i q q LJ T uJ T q T qv 7 qT 'Li J T a T164°W 162°OI6OTW IS8°WOIS6'WO154°WO152°WO150°W 148 146"WO144°W O42 T40"W O138'W 126 W 1S OIB27W O10 O28 OI26°WO124°WO122";=W tC)500 1,000 2,000 Figure 5.2.Daily sea surface temperatures for October 9,1986 over the upwind domain used to determine the storm representative sea surface temperature. FINAL DRAFT Page 29 03/07/14 ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 For computing the maximization factors,a climatology of SSTs was computed for every 1°latitude and longitude,based on data from 1982 through 2012°.The standard deviation for each cell was calculated and plus two standard deviations (+2-sigma)were added to the monthly mean SST values for each cell.Monthly maps were produced to provide spatial analyses of the mean plus 2-sigma (two standard deviations warmer than the mean)SSTs.Use of the mean plus 2-sigma SSTs is consistent with the NWS procedure used in HMRs 57 and 59.Figure 5.3 is an example monthly map for October. +2 sigma (1982-2012)Oct SST (DegF)NOAA Ol.v2 Sea Surface Temperature Rage me =aeoReeoe Le '”-os ae --ele Le - _ - aan Bp1BREon . ; mee ._ ; 1&0 176W 172wW 1é5W 164w 160W 154w *52W 148w 142W 120W 135W 132W 128W "24w 120w Figure 5.3.+2-sigma sea surface temperature map for October. Dew point observations are not generally available over ocean regions.When the source region of atmospheric moisture feeding an extreme rainfall event originates over the ocean,a substitute for dew points observations is required.The NWS adopted a procedure for using SSTs as surrogates for dew points over the ocean.The value used as the maximum SST in the PMP calculations is determined using the SSTs plus two standard deviations (+2-sigma)warmer than the mean SST. >From NOAA_OI_SST_V2,http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/ FINAL DRAFT Page 30 03/07/14 zw ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 This provides a value for the maximum SST that has a probability of occurrence of about 0.025,i.e. about the 40-year return frequency value (see Section 5.1.2.1 for more detail). Following the NWS procedure (e.g.HMR 57)and previous AWA PMP work (Tomlinson et al. 2008-2013,Kappel et al.2011-2014),storm representative SSTs were substituted for dew points. All storms on the short list were reanalyzed to determine the storm representative SST and the +2- sigma SST.These SST values are then treated the same as dew points and the same process is followed for storm maximization as if the SST values were dew point values taken from land based stations. Where cold currents affect ocean temperatures:adjacent to the coast,use of the cold SSTs is inappropriate to represent the storm atmospheric moisture source region.The procedure that selects a storm representative SST in the region that is the primary source of atmospheric moisture available to the storm is then employed.This procedure requires extending the inflow wind vector over the region of colder SSTs along the immediate coastline and selecting a location over the warmer water of the moisture source region.Daily SSTs are then analyzed over this general region, using HYSPLIT as guidance when available,to determine a homogenous region of SSTs in spaceandtime.Generally,this area should show less than a 1°F temperature change in a 1°latitude x 1° longitude box.This value is the storm representative SST. For storm maximization,the value for the maximum SST is determined using the mean plus 2- sigma SST for that location for a date two weeks before or after the storm date (which ever provides the climatologically warmer 2-sigma SST values).Storm representative SSTs and the mean plus 2-sigma SSTs are used in the same manner as storm representative dew points and maximum dew points in the maximization and transpositioning procedure. The NWS states in HMR 57 that the two standard deviations warmer values are approximately equal to a 0.02 probability of occurrence.Specifically,HMR 57 Section 4.3,pp 43-44,states that two standard deviations represent about 98 percent of normally distributed values and_this "...places the magnitude of this parameter at about the level of other estimates used in this study, e.g.the 100-year frequency values.”For the +2-sigma probability,there is 0.05 out of 1.00 that is not included under the normal distribution curve.The 0.05 is divided between the extremes on the upper and lower ends of the normal distribution curve.Since only the high end (i.e.SST plus two standard deviations warmer)is used,only half of the 0.05 is excluded from under the normal distribution curve,i.e.0.025.Hence 0.975 or 97.5%is included under the normal distribution curve.Figure 5.4 shows the normal distribution curve with the +1-sigma and +2-sigma values.. FINAL DRAFT Page 31 03/07/14 -Z- ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 Figure 5.4.Normal distribution curve with +1-sigma and +2-sigma values shown It appears,for reasons that are not clear in HMR 57,that the NWS increased the value of 0.975 to 0.99 and then concluded that this represents the 100-year frequency value.Therefore,it is important to note that without any adjustments,0.975 is approximately equal to a 40-year return frequency value. FINAL DRAFT Page 32 03/07/14 -Z- ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 6.STORM TRANSPOSITIONING Extreme rain events in meteorologically homogeneous regions surrounding a watershed are an important part of the historical evidence for a basin PMP estimate.Since most basin locations have a limited period of record and number of recording stations for rainfall data collected within the basin boundaries,the number of extreme storms that have been observed over the basin is often limited.This lack of data is especially prevalent for the Susitna River basin because of its remote location.To overcome this,storms that have been observed within similar meteorological and topographic regions are analyzed and adjusted to provide information describing the storm rainfall as if that storm had occurred over the basin being studied.Transfer of a storm from where it occurred to a location that is meteorologically and topographically similar is called storm transpositioning.The underlying assumption is that storms transposed to the basin could occur over the basin under similar meteorological conditions.To properly relocate such storms,it is necessary to address issues of similarity as they relate to meteorological conditions (moisture availability)and topography (difference in elevation and orographic influence)between the in-place storm location and the basin location. Using ArcGIS,a gridded network was placed over the Susitna-Watana basin.The adopted grid cell resolution for this study is 0.025 x 0.025 decimal degrees in latitude and longitude (90 arc-seconds). The area of the grid cells varies with latitude,averaging approximately 1.4-square miles at the basin location.There are a total of 4,013 grid cells/grid points within the domain.This universal grid provides a consistent template for the grid cell by grid cell analysis.Figure 6.1 shows the grid over the Susitna-Watana basin. Each of the short list storms were transposed from the storm center location to each of the 4,013 grid points within the Susitna-Watana basin.The transposition process includes a moisture transposition component and an orographic transposition component.The moisture transposition component closely follows the procedures in HMR 57 and previous AWA studies.The orographic transposition process leverages the NOAA Atlas 14 (Perica etal.2012)10 to 1,000-year precipitation frequency values to quantify the differences in extreme rainfall between the historic storm centers and the basin,which is primarily a function of elevation and topography.For moisture transpositioning,only the horizontal difference in available moisture between the storm center and the basin grid points is explicitly accounted for.The vertical component,which accounts for the difference in elevation between the two locations,was not calculated as part of the storm (also called moisture)transposition factor.Instead,this component was accounted for in the derivation of the orographic transposition component:the rainfall values used to derive the ratio at the in-place similar area to the Susitna-Watana basin inherently have the elevation component incorporated.The transposition procedures are defined in the following sections. FINAL DRAFT Page 33 03/07/14 Zw _ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 elie FO tevin ahhe8ayePepmpatBSkeeEA-oneCements Es SE bi 4miacd ashes Bustns-Watens y7 Dam Sr Figure 6.1.The universal 90 arc-second grid network placed over the Susitna-Watana drainage basin. 6.1 Moisture Transposition The general procedure for storm maximization has been discussed in Section 5.The same data sets used for maximum SSTs are used in the storm transpositioning procedure.The wind inflow vector connecting the storm location with the storm representative SST location was transpositioned to each grid point within the basin.Figure 6.2 shows an example of inflow vector transpositioning for the August 1967,Fairbanks,Alaska storm center.The upwind end of the vector identifies the transposition maximum SST location.The value of the maximum SST at that location provided the transpositioned maximum SST value used to compute the transposition adjustment for relocating the storm to each grid point within the basin.The primary effect of storm transpositioning is to adjust storm rainfall amounts to account for enhanced or reduced atmospheric moisture made available to the storm at the transposed location versus the in-place storm location.The ratio of precipitable water due to available atmospheric moisture (as determined by the SST)at the basin target location to the in-place storm location is expressed as the moisture transposition factor (MTF).Figure 6.2 shows the august +20 SST as a background grid.The SST grid resolution is 1° x 1°decimal degree;therefore a bilinear interpolation is used to extract the SST value at each grid point with a greater degree of precision. FINAL DRAFT Page 34 03/07/14 yw ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA 1-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 August 1967 Storm -Fairbanks,AK Moisture Inflow Vector Transposition -1,420 mi SouthEWSYWPfeferEWOOMrMWORTCMORYOWORONBAWOW OCW TE inwBaatasahaalredbealendehendDeDendeedoeienfendalantonfyefandgelaefteas.araeaeaeerebresiaLo 4 weTaw a a a ee a o 8 =so :12sed3 wal net :AE yg ,kalwef. . oa wed a a ake nud maul ..tai|i mel wd ined nd j August Maximum bon ;+2 Sigma SST (°F) nailweeP|<54 []ss 66 . wn Wed Se -55 (J)66-67 [Fon @ Ki &-5e (__]Je?-68 Lonabe[356 -57 [Ja -69 arn (457-5a [__J69-70 |Res ex (1)58-59 [[_J7o-71 en(59-60 [71-72 ane)C40-61f 71-73 |p wn ()61-62 (373-74 |,(Je -63 F474 -75 we (C]63 -64 Ey >75 = weg wg (C6.65 en wea 'ast '2ow 'srw '88%.so ''srw 'wre 'wre 'ew ."rw 'ae 'Pa 'ann .nw>Mies ona nwtesnnne Y ()250 500 750 1,000 Consnthengan "thc Figure 6.2.An example of inflow wind vector transpositioning for August 1967,Fairbanks storm.The storm representative SST location is 1,420 miles south of the storm location. 6.2 Orographic Transposition 6.2.1 Topographic Effect on Rainfall The terrain within the Susitna River basin and the surrounding region is complex,often over relatively short distances (Figure 6.3).When a basin has intervening elevated terrain features that deplete some of the atmospheric moisture available to storms before reaching a basin,these must be taken into account during the storm maximization process.Conversely,when a basin includes terrain which enhances the lift in the atmosphere and increases the conversion of moisture to liquid and ice particles,precipitation processes are enhanced.To account for the enhancements and fa FINAL DRAFT Page 35 03/07/14 ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 -reductions of precipitation by terrain features,called orographic effects,explicit evaluations were performed using the OTF calculation.The OTF evaluation of the orographic effect in this study is significantly more objective and reproducible than the HMR procedure. Elevation Contours -2,000 ft Susitna-Watana Region Maa wove wrw "ew wow wewILiTiL Elevation Contours @< Kaya ¢EN (feet)eae ae [J 0-2.000BRE2,000-4.000 {_]10.000-12.000Bea12,000-14.000[-__]14,000-16,00016,000-18.000 .?')50 100 150 200 Figure 6.3.2,000-foot elevation contours over the Susitna-Watana region. FINAL DRAFT Page 36 03/07/14 -y ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 Orographic effects on rainfall are explicitly captured in the NOAA Atlas 14 precipitation frequency climatological analyses.Although the orographic effects at a particular location may vary from storm to storm,the overall effect of the topographic influence is inherent in the climatology of storms that have occurred over various locations,assuming that the climatology is based on storms of the same type being analyzed.The NOAA Atlas 14 analysis should adequately reflect the differences in topographic influences at different locations at durations appropriate to the storm type in similar meteorological and topographical settings. The procedure used in this study to account for orographic effects assesses the differences between the NOAA Atlas 14 data at the in-place storm location and each grid point within the Susitna- Watana basin.By evaluating the rainfall values for a range of return frequencies at both locations, a relationship between the two locations was established.For this study,precipitation frequency datasets developed as part of NOAA Atlas 14,Volume 7 (Perica et al.2012)were used to evaluate the orographic effects.Figure 6.4 illustrates the 100-year 24-hour NOAA Atlas 14 precipitation coverage.The spatial distribution clearly exhibits the anchoring of the majority of rainfall to the coastal topography,particularly on the upwind side,while inland regions (such as the Susitna- Watana basin)are under a significant rain shadow effect and experience relatively low rainfall. The NOAA Atlas 14 precipitation frequency estimates utilize data from the mean annual maximum grids developed using the Oregon State University Climate Group's PRISM system to help spatially distribute the values between data points.PRISM is a peer-reviewed modeling system that combines statistical and geospatial concepts to evaluate gridded rainfall with particular effectiveness in orographic areas (Daly et al.1994,1997).NOAA Atlas 14 precipitation frequencyestimatesimplicitlyexpressorographiccontrolsthroughtheadoptionofthePRISMsystem.This study assumes the relationship between precipitation frequency values in areas of similar atmospheric characteristics reveal a quantifiable orographic effect and that terrain influence drives the variability in the relationship between NOAA Atlas 14 values at two distinct point locations. FINAL DRAFT Page 37 03/07/14 -w- ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 NOAA Atlas 14 100-year 24-hour Precipitation Frequency Estimates Susitna-Watana Region ww mew urw OW 15 waew "rw urw wiw %PFE S fa 100-yr 24-hr Precipitation (inches) Geg<2 ([Ji2-4 |F jes (Tsetse C]s-¢Ex we-te Lon 20 22 CJe-s Exd«- ooo]fe ]s-10 [Ja-FE)10-12 (C_J>22 I qwowwowww Coordinate System Aisska Nbers .Equal Wee ConeMilesNorthAmencarDatum1963 200 Figure 6.4.100-year 24-hour NOAA Atlas 14 precipitation over the Susitna-Watana region. FINAL DRAFT Page 38 03/07/14 Ze ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO etaD Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.:1 3-1 407-REP-03071 4 6.2.2 Orographic Transpositioning Procedure The orographically adjusted rainfall values for a given storm at a target location (grid cell)within the basin are calculated by applying a coefficient of proportionality,determined by the relationship between a NOAA Atlas 14 data series at the source storm location and the corresponding NOAA Atlas 14 values at the target location.For the transposition of a single grid cell at a given duration, the orographic relationship is defined as the linear relationship between the NOAA Atlas 14 values, at that duration,over a range of recurrence intervals.This study evaluates the trend of precipitation frequency estimates through the 10-,25-,50-,100-,200-,500-,and 1,000-year average recurrence intervals.The relationship between the target and the source can be expressed as a linear function with P,as the independent variable and P;as the dependent variable as shown in Equation 6.1. =mP,+b Equation 6.1 where, P,=orographically adjusted rainfall (target)P;=in-place rainfall (source) m =proportionality coefficient (slope) b =transposition offset (y-intercept) Equation 6.1 provides the orographically transpositioned rainfall depth,as a function of the in-place rainfall depth.The in-place rainfall depth used to calculate the orographically transpositioned rainfall use NOAA Atlas 14 values.The 24-hour duration is appropriate for all storms in the short list.To express the orographic effect as a ratio,or OTF,the orographically adjusted rainfall (P,)is divided by the original source in-place rainfall depth (P;).It is assumed the orographic effect for a given transposition scenario will remain constant over the durations analyzed.Therefore,the 24-hour OTF is valid for any other duration a storm. The orographic relationship can be visualized by plotting the average NOAA Atlas 14 depths for the grid point at the source location on the x-axis and the NOAA Atlas 14 depths for the grid point at the target location on the y-axis,then drawing a best-fit linear trend line among the seven return frequency value points.The trend line describes the general relationship between the NOAA Atlas 14 values at the grid location and the values at the storm location.As an alternative to producing the best-fit linear trendline graphically,linear regression can be used to apply the function mathematically.The mathematical method was applied,in Excel spreadsheets,to efficiently calculate the OTF for each of the basin grid points,for each storm.An example of the determination of the orographic relationship and development of the OTF is given in Section 7.3. FINAL DRAFT Page 39 03/07/14 -Z- ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 7.PMP CALCULATION PROCEDURES PMP depths were calculated by comparing the total adjusted rainfall values for all transpositionable storm events for each grid point and taking the largest value,a process comparable to the envelopment of all transpositionable events.In this case,envelopment occurs because the largest PMP depth for a given duration is derived after analyzing all storms for each grid point location for each duration over the Susitna-Watana basin. The adjusted rainfall at a grid point,for a given storm event,was determined by applying a Total Adjustment Factor (TAF)to the SPAS analyzed rainfall depth value corresponding to the basin area size of 5,131 mi',at each analyzed duration.The TAF is the product of the three separate storm adjustment factors,the IPMF,the MTF,and the OTF.In-place maximization and moisture transposition are described in Section 6.1.Orographic transposition is described in Section 6.2. These calculations were completed for all transpositionable storm centers,for each of the 4,013 basin grid cells. An Excel storm adjustment spreadsheet was produced for each of the transpositionable storm centers.These spreadsheets are designed to perform the initial calculation of each of the three adjustment factors,along with the final TAF.The spreadsheet format allows for the large number of data calculations to be performed correctly and consistently in an efficient template format. Information such as the basin NOAA Atlas 14 data,coordinate pairs,grid point elevation values, equations,and the precipitable water lookup table remain constant from storm to storm and remain static within the spreadsheet template.The spreadsheet contains a final adjusted rainfall tab with the adjustment factors,including the TAF,listed for each grid point.A table holding the TAF for each basin grid point was exported to a GIS feature class for each storm.A Python-language scripted GIS tool receives the storm TAF feature classes and the corresponding DAD tables for each of the 13 SPAS DAD zones as input,along with a basin outline feature layer as a model parameter.The tool then calculates and compares the total adjusted rainfall at each grid point within the basin and determines the PMP depth at each duration up to 216-hours.The tool produces gridded PMP datasets for each duration and a point shapefile holding PMP values for all durations. The following sections describe the procedure for calculating the IPMF,the MTF,the OTF,and the TAF for the creation of the storm adjustment feature classes.The August 1967,Fairbanks,Alaska event controls PMP at each duration.Examples of calculations using the data from this storm are provided. FINAL DRAFT Page 40 03/07/14 -y ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO MEAT29 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 7.1.In-Place Maximization Factor In-place storm maximization is applied to each storm event using the methodology described above.Storm maximization is quantified by applying the IPMF,calculated using Equation 7.2. IPMF ="pmax Equation 7.2Wp,rep where, W pmax)=precipitable water for the maximum +2o monthly SST Wprep)=precipitable water for the representative SST EXAMPLE: Using the storm representative SST temperature and storm center elevation as input,the precipitable water lookup table returns the depth,in inches,used in Equation 7.2.The storm representative SST is 61.0°F,calculated using the procedures described in Section 5.The storm center elevation is approximated at 7,500 feet at the storm center of 65.52 N,147.33 W.The storm representative precipitable water value (Wp,rep)is calculated: Wp,rep =W(@60.0°)30,0007 _W(@60.0°),,7,5007 Wp rep =1.45”-0.89” W prep =0.560” The temporal transposition date for the August 1967,Fairbanks event is August 15",therefore the August +20 SST climatology is appropriate for use to determine the maximum precipitable water. The August climatological maximum +2o SST at the upwind storm representative location is 62.5°F.The storm location climatological maximum available moisture at the storm in-place elevation of 7,500'(W,,max)is calculated: Wp,max =W(@62.5°)»30,0007 _W (@62.5°)n7,5007 W,,max =1.56”-0.945 Wpmax =0.615” FINAL DRAFT Page 41 03/07/14 -yw ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.:13-1407-REP-030714 The ratio of climatological maximum moisture (Wpmax)to the in-place storm representative moisture (Wp,rep)yields the in-place maximization factor using Equation 7.2: IPMF =220.560 IPMF=1.10 7.2 Moisture Transposition Factor The change in available atmospheric moisture between the storm center location and the basin target grid point is quantified using the MTF.This MTF represents the change in available atmospheric moisture due to horizontal distance only and is calculated at the storm center elevation. The change in atmospheric moisture due to vertical displacement is quantified in the OTF, described in the next section.The MTF is calculated as the ratio of moisture for the climatological maximum SST at the target grid cell location to the moisture for the climatological maximum SST at the storm center elevation. W,.MTF =-2=ers Equation 7.3Wp,max where, W p,trans)=maximum precipitable water at the basin grid cell W ¢p,max)=maximum precipitable water at the storm center location EXAMPLE: The transpositioned climatological maximum available moisture must be determined for each target grid point within the basin domain.There are 4,013 grid cells within the basin domain. Only the first grid cell #1,at 62.075°N,148.050°W (in the southwest corner of the basin),is discussed in this example.The August climatological maximum SST temperature,at the moisture inflow vector upwind from grid point #1 is 69.0°F.The precipitable water for this SST is adjusted to the in-place storm center elevation of 7,500 ft®.The horizontally transpositioned climatological maximum available moisture (Wp ans)is calculated. Wp,trans =W(@69.0°),30,0007 _W(@69.0°)57,5007 Wptrans =2.14”-1.21” ©Note:Although the elevation at grid point #1 is at 6,500 ft,the elevation of the storm center is used to remove the vertical component of the moisture transposition which will be included in the orographic transposition factor. FINAL DRAFT -Page 42 03/07/14 -y . ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. ,13-1407-REP-030714 Wperans =0.930” The storm location climatological maximum available moisture (Wp,max)was calculated above for the IPMF: Wy max =0.615” The MTF is calculated as the ratio of moisture for the climatological maximum SST for the grid cell location (W,,ans)to the moisture for the climatological maximum SST for the storm center location (Wp,max),from Equation 7.3: rr =2.2300.615 MTF =1.51 7.3 Orographic Transposition Factor Section 6.2 provides detail on the methods used in this study to define the orographic effect on rainfall.The OTF is calculated by taking the ratio of orographically affected rainfall at the storm in-place location to orographically affected rainfall at the basin grid cell location. OTF ==,Equation 7.4 where, Po =orographically adjusted rainfall (target) P;=SPAS-analyzed in-place rainfall The orographically adjusted rainfall is determined by applying Equation 7.5 to the SPAS-analyzed rainfall depth.The 24-hour duration was used for P;to be consistent with the 24-hour duration of the precipitation frequency datasets. P,=mP;+b | Equation 7.5 (from Equation 6.1) where, Po =orographically adjusted rainfall (target). P;=SPAS-analyzed in-place rainfall m =proportionality coefficient (slope) b =proportionality variation offset (y-intercept) FINAL DRAFT Page 43 03/07/14 -wZ SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA11-022 13-1407-REP-030714 EXAMPLE: Table 7.1 gives an example using NOAA Atlas 14 24-hour values (in inches)at both the storm center grid cell location (source)and a basin grid cell location (target)used to determine the orographic relationship. Table 7.1.24-hour NOAA Atlas 14 Precipitation Frequency values at the storm center (source)and grid cell #1 (target) locations. 10 year |25year |SOyear |100 year |200 year |500 year |1000 year SOURCE (X-axis)3.05 3.73 4.27 4.85 5.46 6.32 7.02 TARGET (Y-axis)2.99 3.65 4.17 4.71 5.28 6.07 6.70 When the NOAA Atlas 14 values are plotted,a best fit trendline can be constructed to provide a visualization of the relationship between the NOAA Atlas 14 values at the source and target locations (Figure 7.1).In this example,the values for the source grid point nearest the Fairbanks, Alaska (August 1967)storm center are plotted on the x-axis while the target values for the first grid point in basin are plotted on the y-axis. Example Storm Center to Grid Point #1 '24-hour Proportionality Constant 7 1,000yr=] 6 an a . 500 yree Target:¥+0.6744x 6 1.371 aGridPoint#1 finches)200y oe ¥v0 s ?Wry SOyr 4 ua5Vga10yra3° 2 T .+T T 1 ?3 a s 6 7 8 Source: Storm Center (inches) Figure 7.1.Example of NOAA Atlas 14 proportionality between the Fairbanks,1967 DAD Zone 1 storm center and the Susitna River basin grid cell #1. FINAL DRAFT Page 44 03/07/14 Zw ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1 407-REP-030714 The orographically adjusted rainfall at the target location can be determined using the equation of the best fit trendline in slope-intercept form.This linear trendline equation corresponds to equation 7.5. The slope,m is the proportionality coefficient,representing the direct relationship between the source and target cells.The y-intercept,b,is used to correct for variability in the precipitation frequency estimate recurrence intervals between the source and target locations.The equation for the SPAS 1270_1 24-hour orographically adjusted rainfall transpositioned to grid point #1,based on the linear trendline in Figure 7.5 is: P,=0.6744m +1.371 The maximum SPAS analyzed 24-hour point rainfall value of 5.36”is entered as the Po value to estimate the target y-value,or orographically adjusted rainfall (P.)of 4.99”. P,=0.6744(5.36”)+1.371” P,=4.99” The ratio of the orographically adjusted rainfall (P,)to the in-place SPAS analyzed 24-hour rainfall (P;)yields the orographic transposition factor (OTF). OTF =4.99”5,36” OTF =0.93 The OTF to grid cell #1 of the basin is 0.93,or a 7%rainfall reduction from the storm center location due to terrain effects.The OTF is then considered to be a temporal constant for the spatial transposition between that specific source/target grid point pair,for that storm only,and can then be applied to the other durations for the given storm. . 7.4 Total Adjusted Rainfall The TAF is a product of the linear multiplication of the IPMF,MTF,and OTF.The TAF is a combination of the total moisture and terrain influences on the SPAS analyzed rainfall when maximized and transpositioned to the target grid cell. TAF =IPMF *MTF *OTF Equation 7.7 FINAL DRAFT Page 45 03/07/14 -yw ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Menta Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 EXAMPLE: For grid point #1,the TAF is calculated as shown in Equation 7.7 using the IPMF from Section 7.1,the MTF from Section 7.2,and the OTF from Section 7.3: TAF =1.10 *1.51 *0.93 TAF =1.54 To calculate the total adjusted rainfall,the TAF is applied to the SPAS analyzed rainfall depth at the basin area size (5,131 mi').For the Fairbanks,Alaska event,the 216-hour SPAS analyzed rainfall depth at the basin size is 8.52”.Therefore,the total adjusted rainfall for this storm at grid point #1 is: Total Adj.Rainfally3¢_n-=TAF *Rainfallyy¢_ny Total Adj.Rainfallzi¢--nr =1.54 *8.52” Total Adj.Rainfallzig_p-=13.12” 7.5 Gridded PMP Calculation and Envelopment The total adjusted rainfall values are computed for each of the 4,013 grid cells in the basin.These calculations are made for a series of index durations sufficient to provide a framework for the temporal distribution of PMP over the basin through a 9-day 'period.For this study,the index durations are 1-,6-,12-,24-,48-,72-,96-,120-,144-,168-,192-,and 216-hour durations. Once the total adjusted rainfall values have been calculated for each of the basin grid cells,the process is repeated for each SPAS DAD zone on the short list.Then the total adjusted rainfall values for all storms at a given grid point are compared and the largest becomes the PMP.When this comparison is made at a grid by grid basis for all storms,the result is an envelopment of adjusted rainfall values.The PMP at each grid point will be derived from whichever storm,after maximization and transposition,produces the largest rainfall.After the total adjusted rainfall had been calculated for all grid points in the basin,for all storms,the Fairbanks,Alaska event of August 1967 produced the largest depths,at all durations. FINAL DRAFT.-Page 46 03/07/14 --Z-: ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 The resulting gridded PMP values for each index duration are contained within GIS files in both raster and vector (point)datasets.Due to the large amounts of calculations needed to create the PMP grids,a scripted ArcGIS tool was created using the Python language.The tool performs the following tasks: 1)Calculates the basin size 2)Looks up the SPAS analyzed rainfall depths at the basin size 3)Applies the rainfall depths to the total adjusted rainfall factor for each storm 4)Compares the adjusted rainfall values for all storms to get PMP 5)Outputs the PMP to GIS files 6)Repeats the process for each duration FINAL DRAFT Page 47 03/07/14 wz ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 8.SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION OF PMP 8.1 Spatial Distribution The spatial distribution of the Susitna-Watana PMP is dependent on a combination of the variation of the gridded OTF and MTF values over the basin.Therefore,the spatial distribution is largely dependent on variation in terrain,which is represented by the 10-through 1,000-year 24-hour NOAA Atlas 14 precipitation frequency spatial distribution over the basin,and to a lesser extent, variation in moisture which is controlled by the gradient of sea surface temperatures at the source location for the controlling storm event. . The variation in available moisture is a smooth gradient with larger values at the southern end of the basin transitioning to smaller values at the northern end.A map of the MTF over the basin (Figure 8.1)illustrates the distribution due to moisture. As discussed in Section 6.2.1,the topography of the basin and surrounding region is dynamic and varies greatly over the surface of the basin.Therefore,it is expected that the effect of mountainous terrain would be the defining factor in the spatial distribution.The variation of rainfall due to orography,as a result of slope,elevation,and rain shadow effect is inherently represented in the OTF due to it being a function of the NOAA Atlas 14 precipitation frequency relationship between each grid point in the basin and a constant location at the storm center.A map of the OTF over the basin (Figure 8.2)illustrates the spatial distribution due to terrain. The spatial distribution pattern,due to the variation in terrain and moisture is apparent in the gridded basin PMP maps.Figures 8.3a,8.3b,and 8.3c show the basin 24-hour,72-hour,and 216-hour PMP,respectively. FINAL DRAFT Page 48 03/07/14 Zz SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO area Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1 407-REP-030714 Gridded Moisture Transpositon Factors over the Susitna-Watana Basin Upper Susitna River,Alaska "rx 14ow E30"it NPA a eowpeFghPehlwaWyekBotSeere=oy&wee ey Arye eat aon pies,Rowe é 4 Sea|} a Pa ' "t Susitna-Watana"14.[Dam SiteQK royLn:saef=parh:i.LyEu?!i=nar fe eaeAe ere e CELTS PEER EE Md Jog atr:Basin MTF Statistics:Pe N4Area:5,131 mi?Ss "|Moisture Transposition Basin Average:1.39 Yow to Factor (MTF)4 Basin Maximum:1.51 Oe zey Cod<t30 (sao.14s|Basin Minimum:=.1.27 GE [ee (1)1.30-1.35 [J 145-150SourceStorm:Fairbanks,1967 (1270_1)f se 7)CJ 138-1-40 Fo o1.50 =FTI 8 Os Os a et el p ta Loa SEES Oe -ww 148-300 ue 1ar-sow "rw 1arsow werw "Coordinate Sysien NAD 1983 Alaska Albers,<>Miles Outen Hern vara Fa Y 0 10 20 30 40 50 Cental Mendan -148 0000 Figure 8.1.Moisture Transposition Factors over the basin. FINAL DRAFT Page 49 03/07/14 AEA11-022 ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY 13-1407-REP-030714 SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. Gridded Orographic Transpositon Factors over the Susitna-Watana Basin Upper Susitna River,Alaska 4rw rt WeWw i ersow =5 N = r22 L? 0 oe om m3 ° cae 1? 2 eres a °s UUUO | gf se2aa -P Zo eoooere fa BO fs vee Fa oe. CONOD 118 BS6 vSeooo [Th aS - Ri= ou & ; 52 BOUL|SYabeEe LE2=AokLOEMENyme YMRS ial™ Couas¥ ,Rs= re) : =} neh oOi a: OK x =f Si G pene uHe peer Are AE: = © caeae on E 2h is " ; On NW ak 5 . TEM ohHQwWorodcy]], \ 2'LS _ os - Z .. Ly= 2 as c N ; #5| Se aEEo oz is ZsO Ea E Val St |e O <€22o hl: oo < eeec”'os a Cn ae = vu: Hgpg AnD " a Faa ak are aoctaonmotcn - oe Cooranate System NAD 1983 Alaska AlbersPraectionAlbers Datum:Nonh Amencan 1983, Central Mendian .148 0000 1Miles 504030 a ene! 0 10 20 Figure 8.2.Orographic Transposition Factors over the basin. 03/07/14Page50FINALDRAFT -Z-- . ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA 1.022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 Gridded 24-hour PMP over the Susitna-Watana Basin (inches) Upper Susitna River,Alaska warw basi ech wrsow "rw basi aid a6"Ww 63°30N4 orN -Susitna-Watana¥Dam Site x aewit!ot Beale ebencesGrae;at aa oy .rietya7hye4 LL tee>;oe aaolee ssone_d &:62"30'Nfale|Anan Le StTEieVe"wit A "de YsGdfi ety »lya>ree BS.<o a)astGereyrsfeen)bap py.SF,4 oS ;:{ay "Ye sgh 'oe "ae iy fmShe vfeyaSMetaroroamooWAG'SS es,ih)sy eet JB,p=IIS,PER &Seed de 107 fe Basin (5,131 mi?)24-hour PMP.|LylserALY2EEAGEAESLGD£5 ae (inches) };' oe 35 6-65{Basin 24-hour PMP Statistics:a esArea:5,131 mi?(C_]4-45 EE§7-754BasinAverage:4.59"CoJ+s-s(75-8 }Basin Maximum:8.08"E1s-ss[__J]>s Basin Minimum:-3.20"C_)55-6 nous <2...i PEAY5 Ps a aa'fit Sa FULGGrere ad had"ew usw ueoow ue'w ”Coordinate System:NAD 1963 Naka AbersOMilesDatumNeaAvr18301020304050ConeeanAgON Figure 8.3a.Susitna River basin 24-hour gridded PMP. FINAL DRAFT Page 51 03/07/14 Zz ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 Gridded 72-hour PMP over the Susitna-Watana Basin (inches)Upper Susitna River,Alaska "RW wrnow ww Pel a "|Susitna-Watana Dam Site Basin (5,131 mi?)72-hour PMP (inches): Ees<ss [Js-35 Bean-115 (55-6 Gces-9 Berg 1.5-12|CJe-es[__Jeo-9s [(_j12-125 pa2"N 72-hour PMP Statistics: 4 Area:5,131 mi? L]Basin Average:7.43"(Ci Jes-7[Jas-10 [__]i25-13 j Basin Maximum:-13.08"(C)7-7s [7]10-105 ]>13 Basin Minimum:5.18"".|(175-8 Bad 105-11 pce'PEST BO:sai aOR a AP OO oeane ae usw 14g how "ew ur sow "Pw 146°"ew "Coordinate System NAD 1963 AlaskaAbers:Om ee |1Miles Daurm North Soest 1503 0 10 20 30 40 50 Cenval Mendan -148 0000 Figure 8.3b.Susitna River basin 72-hour gridded PMP. FINAL DRAFT 'Page 52 03/07/14 Zz ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO EAI 022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 Gridded 216-hour (9-day)PMP over the Susitna-Watana Basin (inches) Upper Susitna River,Alaskatanwurzowrw 146"37WTTTESe,-iol ual ou r =Peg OP Nw Be =at LF,"vif ,a pee /Le ne xn] aea "|Susitna-Watana | +{Dam Site RON EX ep Be ZBSune Basin (5,134 mi*)216-hour PMP ae ane C14 J gr f (inches)bi2"NELAws1gKoa<7 12-134Basin216-hour PMP Statistics:Cojr-8 Cota-1LiArea:5,134 mi2 L]e-9 Eayu-ss4BasinAverage:10.02"[]e-10 Fgi1s-16 (J 10-11 [7]16-17|Basin Maximum:17.64" Basin Minimum:6.99"Eo 11-12 J>17 Dae SP ARGC2OP eBasont then oe de TAFSEPOCr2 = "ew wer WwW "ew wesw "ew "Coordinate Systers NAD 1963 AlaskaAbersMilPraecton.Albers "yn nes Saasssrt'0 10 20 30 40 50s Figure 8.3c.Susitna River basin 216-hour gridded PMP. FINAL DRAFT Page 53 03/07/14 --Zw| ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 8.2 Temporal Distribution Hourly accumulated PMP depths for each grid point were determined by plotting the basin average PMP values,for each index duration,on a graph.A smooth curve was drawn through each index duration,1-hour through 216-hour.Using this curve,the PMP accumulations at each hourly interval were estimated.The hourly incremental PMP values could then be calculated from the accumulated PMP values.This process follows the general procedure outlined in HMR 57, however,here it has been scaled up to 1-hour (instead of 6-hour intervals),and extends to a total duration of 216-hour (instead of 72-hours). Susitna-Watana Basin PMP Depth-Duration (5,131 mi?) 10 -PMPDepth(inches)wiiNcoy 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200 210 220 Duration (hours) Figure 8.4.Depth-Duration PMP curve used to interpolate accumulated PMP at hourly intervals. To temporally distribute the gridded PMP values,the incremental depths are re-ordered to mirror the mass curve of three separate storm events:August 1955,Denali N.P.(SPAS 1272)DAD zone 1;August 1967,Fairbanks (SPAS 1270)DAD zone 1;and August 2012,Old Tyonek (SPAS 1256) DAD zone 1. The temporal distribution pattern for August 1955,Denali N.P.(SPAS 1272)DAD zone |applied to the total basin average PMP is shown in Figure 8.5. FINAL DRAFT Page 54 03/07/14 -Z- ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO ,AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 August 1955 Temporal Distribution PMP GRE ncremental --Accumulated 05-7 o>Se°Ny-AccumulatedPrecipitation(inches)IncremertalPrecipitation(inches)2=0.0 ,,;Lo 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 196 200 210 Index Hour Figure 8.5.August 1955,Denali NP mass curve pattern used for the temporal distribution of the Susitna-Watana PMP. The temporal distribution pattern for August 1967,Fairbanks (SPAS 1270)DAD zone 1 as applied to the total basin average PMP is shown in Figure 8.6. Aug 1967 Temporal Distribution PMP GEE Incremental --Accumulated IncrementalPrecipitation(inches)AccumulatedPrecipitation(inches)25 50 5 400 125 150 175 200 Index Hour Figure 8.6.August 1967,Fairbanks storm zone 1 mass curve pattern used for the temporal distribution of the Susitna-Watana PMP. FINAL DRAFT Page 55 03/07/14 -yz ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO NEAT1O22 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 The temporal distribution pattern for August 2012,Old Tyonek (SPAS 1256)DAD zone 1 as applied to the total basin average PMP is shown in Figure 8.7. Sep 2012 Temporal Distribution PMP 0.5 GB Incremental --Accumulated sar |g 04-5 adw1°DS)AccumulatedPrecipitation(inches)IncrementalPrecipitation(inches)id=0.0 25 50 75 100 "425 150 175 200 Index Hour Figure 8.7.August 2012,Old Tyonek storm mass curve pattern used for the temporal distribution of the Susitna-Watana PMP. FINAL DRAFT Page 56 03/07/14 -w- ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO EMA aoe Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 9.PMP METEOROLOGICAL TIME SERIES DEVELOPMENT Hourly meteorological time series were developed for the six calibration events (see Table 12.2.1) over the Susitna River basin in order to aid the hydrologic modeling to best represent expected conditions that would be associated with the PMP rainfall.Meteorological time series parameters have been derived for temperature,dew point temperature and wind speed over the Susitna-Watana basin.The hydrologic model requirements are a single temperature and dew point temperature time series at a given base elevation and wind speed at 1,000-foot increments from 0-feet to 15,000-feet. Temperature lapse rates were estimated using observed surface temperature data for stations in and around the Susitna-Watana basin and Fairbanks radiosonde data. Vertical wind speed profiles at 1,000-foot increments were derived base on wind speed data from the Fairbanks radiosonde and observed surface wind speed data for stations in and around the Susitna-Watana basin.The radiosonde wind speeds represents free atmospheric winds (unobstructed flow).This free-air data were adjusted to surface wind speeds based on comparisons of anemometer level wind speeds with concurrent free-air wind speeds.The wind speed derivation methodology was based on methods described in HMR 42 (Weather Bureau 1966).HMR 42 measured winds at Gulkana glacier (4,800 ft)and compared to free-air winds at Fairbanks,the study found that average winds on the glacier was 0.60 that of the free-air.In this updated analysis, comparisons were made using both Anchorage and Fairbanks radiosonde data.This analysis showed the Anchorage radiosonde data were not as representative of the surface wind speeds over the basin based on comparisons made to the September 2012 storm event.Instead,the Fairbanks data better represented the timing and magnitude of the observed surface wind speeds. All six storms were normalized to have a similar index period of 312-hours (see Figure 9.1).For each storm,the index time of the maximum 216-hour accumulated precipitation was determined; this represents the PMP rainfall accumulation window.Then,the 216-hour mid-point was determined by shifting the maximum 216-hour accumulated precipitation index hour 108-hours earlier.Finally,the 108-hour mid-point was used to determine the start and end times of the 216- hour PMP analysis window.The 312-hour window was completed with 24-hours added at the beginning and 72-hours added at the end of the 216-hour PMP window.Hourly temperatures,dew point temperatures,and vertical wind speeds were derived for each of these events for the 312-hour time frame.Figure 9.2 shows the indexed temperature and dew point temperature for the six storm events (base elevation of 2,500 ft). Once the proper 312-hour window was identified for each of the six storm events,the 312-hour time series data were grouped by month (i.e.all June events grouped together,all August events grouped,and all September events grouped together).For each monthly grouping,an average time series was created based on averaging the individual hourly station meteorological data.Since the all-season PMP event is more conducive to the rainfall associated with the September and August FINAL DRAFT Page 57 03/07/14 -yw ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 storm events,an average time series was created based on averaging the September and August storm events time series values.The monthly averaged temperature and dew point temperature profiles for June,August,September and average August/September events are shown in Figure 9.3.The final temperature,dew point temperature and wind speed information were based on the average profiles for August/September (Figure 9.4 and 9.5). The averaged September and August meteorological time series was selected because it best represents the expected conditions that would be associated with the PMP rainfall.The final PMP temperature and dew point temperature have a base elevation of 2,500-ft,the lapse rate used to adjust PMP temperature and dew point temperature to other elevations was -2.63°F per 1,000 ft. The -2.63°F lapse rate was based on the average of all August (1967 and 1971)and September (2012)storm event lapse rates (-2.87°F,-2.85°F,-2.70°F =2.63°F). The final vertical wind speed values were based on the average of all August (1967 and 1971)and September (2012)storm events anemometer height wind speeds. 0.3 il\shift 108-hrs | <-_--_--_-Start of '|End of 312-hr Window .'ee ae 312-hr Window 3 ||t |t0.2 -|1 |iS . 108-hr : s Begin Mid-Point of End £02 4 216-hr 216-hr PMP Window 216-hr S Maximum i Maximum iy Precipitaion \Precipitaion ee Sees ec cn Pe ccc oor | 0 24 48 72 96 120 144 168 192 216 240 264 288 Index Hour Figure 9.1.Methodology used to create the normalized 312-hour meteorological time series.Maximum 216- hour accumulated precipitation (green line).Mid-point of the 216-hour window basin on the 108-hour shift from the maximum 216-hour accumulation (red line).Start and end point of.the 312-hour duration used in this example analysis (blue lines). FINAL DRAFT Page 58 03/07/14 Zz SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA11-022 13-1407-REP-030714 June 1964 70.0 ---7 0.20 -Ppt --Ta -=Td September 2012 .+ons 60.0 -a eee||0.161; 50.0 ++0.44 30.0 »0.42 +0.10 p00 |0.08 200 +0.06 ;,0.04 10.0 |oe i { :|jo:+0.02 Pog.: .y f i"H0.0 Hee bey Be ae be eS 00 121 41 61 81 101 125 141 161 181 201 221 241 261 281 301 POO paso nee ee ee ee ee ee 020)|August 1969 +ous60.0 ; : 0.16 50.0 014 40.0 :O12 ;0.10) 30.0 +.--aoe a -f 008 |i 20.0 --4 -0.06 debe 0.0410.0 +-------I | -\'4 tae ccc f Be -Jba|:an oa |)|0.020.0 +Ae be dy det --- ++0.00 2 21 41 G1 81 101 121 142 161 181 201 221 241 261 281 301 70 +.a cement eeenstmnnnnn QJ)August 1967 |!0.18 60 0.16 50 0.14 ao |0.12 |0.10 30 0.08 20 {| 0.06 ya (0.04 10 .hig wo [."ak 0.02PEIPoPok ' Ob ee ee Sle pe tenes pennenitioee whe tee sort,|0.00) 121°42 61 81 LOE 121 141 161 181 201 221 241 261 281 301 t | ] 20.0 =ene eee ce ie -aan 0.06 |+0.04 10.0 pf = |}|:0.02ool ,.4 -bee.the,rr |9.00 121 41 61 81 401 121 141 161 181 201 222 241 261 281 301 70.0 0.20 June1971 |4i560.0 +-, ;0.1650.0 +O14 40.0 +4 012 |0.10 30.0 ;=9.0800|co _!-none 4 0.06 ;7 +0.0410.1 dae ee oo sme oeHPTjam'¢100++:ae oe eee ae --+0.00 2 21 41 GE 81 101 122 141 161 181 201 221 241 261 281 301 70.0 June 1972 |160.0 ¢ :-_--bee a Cteh be,a!a0 81 101 121 141 161 181 201 221 243 261 281 301 00 |binmne 1 #21 41 61 Figure 9.2.Indexed temperature and dew point temperature for the six storm events for a base elevation of 2,500 feet. FINAL DRAFT Page 59 03/07/14 -y A E ASUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO saan eee AEAI1.022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 September Series August Series 10.0 4 rs|-120.0 +|-ta -t |0.0 ee open 0.0 teee err ort at 1 21 41 61 81 101 121 141 161 181 202 221 241 261 281 301 1 21 42 61 81 101 121 241 161 181 201 221 241 261 281 301 700 70.0 -June Series August/September Series60.0 $0.0 pl Mapp 40.0 30.0 20.0 20.0 10.0 10.0 0.0 ++ain an aon oon a a SS 0.0 1-7-7 aaa naan ane!ct I SR SOiRARER Sn Sind IRM SR Se eR A 1 21 #42 61 81 101 121 141 161 181 201 221 241 261 281 301 1 22 421 #61 81 103 121 141 161 181 201 221 241 261 281 301 Figure 9.3.Indexed monthly averaged profiles for June,August,September and average August/September for a base elevation of 2,500 feet. e=mpTemperature em Dew PointTemperature & wv a 2 Cv.) a a 20.0 10.0 0.0 T TT T T T T T T T T F T F T T T T T T T T Li Ls T*)24 48 72 96 120 144 168 192 216 240 264 288 Index Hour Figure 9.4.PMP non-maximized temperature and dew point temperature data based on the average profiles for August/September for a base elevation of 2,500 feet and lapse rate of -2.63°F per 1,000 feet. FINAL DRAFT Page 60 03/07/14 -Z- ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 -oft --1000 ft 2000ft --3000 ft --4000 ft --5000 ft ==6000 ft --7000ft --8000 fr ---9000 ft as !OR :S VL Ne --10000 ftWA 72 4 : ..SN -11000ft\ao 12000 ftSa . aN page --13000 ftstn:Soe NX AP)- 140008 ---15000ftuwf=]WindSpeed(mph)NwNOc=]410+ T T T r 1TTTtTTTTT 0 24 48 72 96 120 144 168 192 216 240 264 288 Figure 9.5.Final PMP wind speed values based on the average profiles for August/September for a base elevation of 2,500 feet. 9.1 PMP Temperature Time Series Maximization The storm representative SST temperature and climatological maximum SST temperature associated with each of the short list storms were analyzed to derive the average difference between the two values in degrees Fahrenheit.The values associated with the storms which control the PMP values were averaged and the resulting value was then applied to each hourly temperature and dew point temperature value.The value derived from this process was 3.0°F.This was the value applied in the maximization process of the temperature and dew point temperature time series used for the snow melt calculations.This was done for all hourly data (in 216-hour window)in order to provide a consistent maximization of the temperature and dew point temperature time series that would be expected to occur during a cool-season PMP rainfall event. An example of the maximized PMP temperature and dew point temperature data for a PMP event is shown below and the temperature and dew point temperature results displayed in Figure 9.6. Storm rep SST for =54.0°FAugust15'2-sigma SST at the storm rep location =57.0°F September 15 2-sigma SST at the storm rep location =56.5°F Maximization Value =57.0°F -54.0°F =3.0°F 7 A combination of August and September +2-sigma SST values was used following the procedure of moving a storm two week towards the warmer season for maximization purposes.Because the example event occurred on September 15,the storm is moved to September |for storm analysis purposes. FINAL DRAFT Page 61 03/07/14 -Z- ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 eumpTemperature exe Dew PointTemperature Degrees(F}Qo 24 4g 72 96 120 144 168 192 216 240 264 288 Index Hour Figure 9.6.Final maximized PMP temperature and dew point temperature data based on the average profiles for August/September for a base elevation of 2,500 feet and lapse rate of -2.63°F per 1,000 feet. 9.2 Seasonality Adjustments for Moving to Other Months Investigations of the seasonal variation in the Susitna-Watana PMP/PMF required that the maximized PMP temperature,dew point temperature,and wind speed time series values be moved, with appropriate adjustments to the other months when a lesser amount of these values could combine with a great snow melt runoff to produce a larger PMF.Three adjustment factors were determined:i)moving the maximized temperature and dew point temperature time series to other months,ii)moving the wind speed time series to other months,and iii)moving the all-season PMP to other months. 9.2.1 Temperature Seasonality Adjustments Daily surface climate normal data (1981-2010)were acquired for ten stations (Table 9.1)for a period of April 1 to October 31.For each day,the average temperature was calculated from the ten stations.The average daily temperature for the Susitna-Watana basin,based on ten stations 30-year climate normal is shown in Figure 9.7.The maximum daily average temperature was computed to be 56.6°F.The maximum daily average temperature was used to scale the daily average temperature on a scale of 0.0 to 1.0,with 1.0 equal to 56.6°F.The 1 and 15"of each month scaled daily average temperature were extracted from April to November.The temperatures for July and August were set to 1.00,based on the small changes in temperature and this period represents the all season PMP months.The final seasonality adjustment factors to apply to the all-season PMP temperature and dew point temperature time series are shown in Table 9.2.The adjustment factors should be applied to move the all-season temperature and dew point temperature time series to other months.For example,moving the all-season temperature and dew point temperature from July 15 to May 15 would reduce the time series data by 0.80 (see example below). FINAL DRAFT Page 62 03/07/14 zw ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 July 15 all-season PMP at index hour |has a T,of 45.1°F and Ty of 40.2°F July 15 to May 15 adjustment =0.80 May 15 PMP at index hour |T,is 36.1°F and Ty is 32.2°F Table 9.1 Stations used for temperature and dew point temperature seasonality adjustments. Station Elevation (ft) Anchorage 130 Fairbanks 433 Talkeetna 350 Gulkana _1560 Chulitna River 1355 Paxson 2700 Lake Susitna 2375 Cantwell 2E 2130 Tahneta Pass 2620 Sutton 1W 550 70.0 eammeDaily Average Temperature 60.0 50.0 40.0 Temperature(F).30.0 +- 20.0 10.0 0.0 T T T T T T 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct Figure 9.7.Daily average temperature based on ten stations 30-year climate normal around the Susitna-Watana basin. FINAL DRAFT Page 63 03/07/14 -y SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA11-022 13-1407-REP-030714 Table 9.2.Seasonality adjustments to all season PMP temperature and dew point temperature time series. Ta Td Time Series Seasonality Date Ratio 1-Apr 0.39 15-Apr 0.55 1-May 0.69 15-May 0.80 1-Jun 0.90 15-Jun 0.95 1-Jul 1.00 15-Jul 1.00 1-Aug 1.00 15-Aug 1.00 1-Sep 0.94 15-Sep 0.86 1-Oct 0.77 15-Oct 0.64 1-Nov 0.51 9.2.2 Wind Speed Seasonality Adjustments Daily average wind speed data was acquired from the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN)daily database at four stations (Table 9.3)surrounding the Susitna-Watana basin.The entire period of record for each station was extracted and analyzed.The average daily wind speed for each station was grouped by month;the monthly values were used to identify the monthly average maximum wind speed and average wind speed. Table 9.3.Stations used for wind speed seasonality adjustments. Station Elevation (ft) Gulkana 1560 Talkeetna 350 Anchorage 433 Fairbanks 500 A final average monthly maximum and average wind speed was calculated based on each of the four stations monthly values.For example,the August average monthly wind speed of 17.2 mph was calculated with the four stations maximum daily wind speed as: FINAL DRAFT 03/07/14 LASKA ENERGY Ai TYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA 1.022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 Station August Wind Speed Talkeetna =14.8 Gulkana =23.7 Fairbanks =17.0 Anchorage =13.2 Average =17.2 The August average wind speed was computed to be 17.2 mph.The August average wind speed was used to scale the monthly maximum wind speed on a scale of 0.0 to 1.0,with 1.0 equal to 17.2 mph.The final seasonality adjustment factors to apply to the all-season PMP wind speed time series are shown in Table 9.4.The adjustment factors should be applied to the move the all-season wind speed time series to other months.For example,moving the all-season wind speed from August 15 to May 15 would increase the time series data by 1.06 (see example below). August 15 all-season PMP at index hour |and 5000 ft has a Ws of 9.1 mph August 15 to May 15 adjustment =1.06 May 15 PMP at index hour |and 5000 ft Ws is 9.7 mph Table 9.4,Seasonality adjustments to all season PMP wind speed time series. Ws PMP Seasonality Month Ratio 15-Jan - 15-Feb - 15-Mar 1.45 15-Apr 1.25 15-May 1.06 15-Jun 0.87 15-Jul 0.92 15-Aug 1.00 ; 15-Sep 1.15 15-Oct 1.25 15-Nov 1.28 15-Dec - 9.2.3 PMP Seasonality Adjustments Monthly maximum 1-day precipitation data was acquired from the Alaska Climate Research Center for four stations (Table 9.2.5)surrounding the Susitna-Watana basin.Each stations maximum 1-day precipitation was used to scale each stations monthly 1-day maximum precipitation from 0.0 to 1.0.For example,Fairbanks monthly 1-day maximum precipitation was 3.42 inches and occurred in August,the scaled maximum precipitation data at Fairbanks is 1.0 for the month of August.The average of each four stations monthly scaled maximum precipitation was used to FINAL DRAFT Page 65 03/07/14 -yw ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 initially identify the PMP seasonality adjustment.The all-season PMP is for the months of July and August,these months had a seasonality adjustment of 1.0.All other months had a reduction based on the average scaled maximum I-day precipitation.The final PMP seasonality adjustment are shown in Table 9.6. Table 9.5.Stations used for PMP seasonality adjustments. Station Elevation (ft) Gulkana 1560 Talkeetna 350 Anchorage 433 Fairbanks 500 The adjustment factors should be applied to the move the all-season PMP to other months.For example,moving the all-season PMP from August 15 to May 15 would reduce the PMP magnitude by 0.83 (see example below). August 15 sub-basin |average all-season PMP at 72-hours is 9.95 inches August 15 to May 15 adjustment =0.83 May 15 PMP sub-basin 1 72-hour PMP would be 8.26 inches Table 9.6.Seasonality adjustments to all season PMP. PMP Seasonality Month Ratio 15-Jan - 15-Feb - 15-Mar 0.30 15-Apr 0.60 15-May 0.83 15-Jun 0.94 15-Jul 1.00 15-Aug 1.00 15-Sep 0.92 15-Oct 0.80 15-Nov 0.65 15-Dec - FINAL DRAFT Page 66 03/07/14 Zz ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO ,MEAT DD Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years..13-1407-REP-030714 10.RESULTS 10.1 Site-Specific PMP Values This study produced site-specific PMP values for use in computing the PMF for the Susitna-Watana basin.Values for durations from 1-through 216-hours have been computed for each grid cell within the basin.After all adjustments were applied to all the storms on the short storm list,the Fairbanks August,1967 storm event resulted in the largest values at all area sizes and all durations. The spatial and temporal patterns associated with the three storms from the storm list with different temporal patterns were then used to distribute the PMP rainfall.Finally,the gridded hourly PMP values were averaged by sub-basin. Results of this analysis are displayed in Tables 10.1a-c,one for each of the temporal distributions applied.These include the all-season PMP values for each sub-basin as a sub-basin averageamountatthex-duration.The total basin (5,131 mi')is also included and used for comparisons to previous work in the region. Table 10.1a.Site-specific PMP values for Susitna-Watana basin using the August,1967 storm temporal distribution. Sub-basin |Drainage]All S AIS All S AllS AllS Area 1hr PMP |6-he PMP |24-he PMP |72-he PMP |216-he PMP({sq.mi.)|{inches}{inches){inches}(inches){inches) 1 52.6 0.60 2.47 6.09 9.95 13.83 2 226.4 0.50 2.04 §.02 8.21 11.41 3 295.4 0.37 1.53 377 6.16 8.56 4 149.3 0.56 2.31 5.69 9.31 12.93 - §354.0 0.44 1.79 443 7.24 10.06 6 153.4 0.48 1.97 486 7.94 11.03 7 67.5 0.32 1.31 3.23 §.29 7.35 8 189.9 0.39 1.60 3.94 6.44 8.95 9 187.7 0.41 1.69 4.18 6.83 9.50 10 326.8 0.39 1.61 3.98 6.51 9.04 1 273.5 0.41 1.67 412 6.73 9.35 12 74.7 0.36 1.46 3.61 §.90 8.21 13 222.5 0.34 1.39 3.44 §.62 7.81 14 135.1 0.33 1.36 3.35 §.48 7.62 15 185.1 0.36 1.50 3.69 6.03 8.38 16 164.3 0.37 1.51 3.73 6.10 8.48 WwW 253.2 0.35 1.45 3.57 §.84 8.12 18 100.0 0.43 1.78 439 7.18 9.98 19 202.2 0.50 2.04 5.04 8.24 11.45 20 36.3 0.37 1.53 3.77 6.16 8.56 21 162.7 0.50 2.06 5.07 8.29 11.62 22 92.0 0.36 147 3.63 5.93 8.25 23 174.2 0.41 1.70 419 6.86 9.53 24 457.4 0.43 1.78 438 7.417 9.96 25 184.0 0.61 2.52 6.23 10.18 14.15 26 222.9 0.54 2.23 §.50 8.99 12.49 27 269.6 0.47 1.94 4.78 7.81 10.85 28 218.5 0.52 2.13 §.26 8.60 11.96 29 36.8 0.43 1.74 431 7.05 9.80 Total/Avg.|5168.2 0.43 1.78 440 7.19 10.00 FINAL DRAFT Page 67 03/07/14 -Z- SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA11-022 13-1407-REP-030714 Table 10.1b.Site-specific PMP values for Susitna-Watana basin using the August,1955 storm temporal distribution. Sub-basin |Drainage}All Season |Ali Season |All Season |All Season |All SeasonArea|1-hr PMP |6-he PMP |24-hr PMP |72-hr PMP |216-he PMP{sq.mi.}|(inches){inches)(inches)(inches){inches) 1 52.6 0.60 1.93 3.83 7.64 13.83 2 226.4 0.50 1.59 3.16 6.31 11.41 3 295.4 0.37 1.20 2.37 4.73 8.56 4 149.3 0.56 1.81 3.58 7.15 12.93 §354.0 0.44 1.40 2.79 5.56 10.06 6 153.4 0.48 1.54 3.06 6.10 11.03 7 67.5 0.32 1.03 2.04 4.06 7.35 8 189.9 0.39 1.25 2.48 4.95 8.95 9 187.7 0.41 1.33 2.63 §.25 9.50 10 326.8 0.39 1.26 2.51 §.00 9.04 11 273.5 0.41 1.31 2.59 §.17 9.35 12 74.7 0.36 1.15 2.27 4.54 8.21 13 222.5 0.34 1.09 2.16 4.32 7.81 14 135.1 0.33 1.06 2.11 4.21 7.62 15 185.1 0.36 117 2.32 4.63 8.38 16 164.3 0.37 1.18 2.35 4.69 8.48 7 253.2 0.35 1.13 2.25 4.49 8.12 18 100.0 0.43 1.39 2.77 §.52 9.98 19 202.2 0.50 1.60 3.17 6.33 11.45 20 36.3 0.37 4.20 2.37 4.73 8.56 21 162.7 0.50 1.61 3.19 6.37 11.52 22 92.0 0.36 4.15 2.28 4.56 8.25 23 174.2 0.41 1.33 2.64 §.27 9.53 24 157.4 0.43 1.39 2.76 §.51 9.96 25 184.0 0.61 1,98 3.92 7.82 14.15 26 222.9 0.54 1.74 3.46 6.91 12.49 27 269.6 0.47 1.52 3.01 6.00 10.85 28 218.5 0.52 1.67 3.31 6.61 11.96 29 36.8 0.43 1.37 2.72 §.42 9.80 Total/Avg.|_5168.2 0.43 1.40 2.77 §§3 10.00 FINAL DRAFT Page 68 03/07/14 Zz ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 Table 10.1c.Site-specific PMP values for Susitna-Watana basin using the September,2012 storm temporal distribution. Sub-basin |Drainage]All Season |All Season |All Season |All Season |All SeasonAreat-hr PMP |6-hr PMP |24-hre PMP |72-hr PMP |216-hr PMP (sq.mi.}|(inches)(inches)(inches)(inches)(inches) 1 52.6 0.60 1.79 3.77 6.40 13.83 2 226.4 0.50 1.47 3.11 5.28 11.41 3 295.4 0.37 1.11 2.33 3.96 8.56 4 149.3 0.56 1.67 3.52 5.99 12.93 5 354.0 0.44 1.30 2.74 4.66 10.06 6 153.4 0.48 1.42 3.00 6.11 11.03 7 67.5 0.32 0.95 2.00 3.40 7.35 8 189.9 0.39 1.16 2.44 4.15 8.95 9 187.7 0.41 1.23 2.59 4.40 9.50 10 326.8 0.39 117 2.46 4.19 9.04 11 273.5 0.41 1.21 2.55 4.33 9.35 12 14.7 0.36 1.06 2.23 3.80 8.21 13 222.5 "0.34 1.01 2.13 3.62 7.81 14 135.1 0.33 0.98 2.07 3.53 7.62 15 185.1 0.36 1.08 2.28 3.88 8.38 16 164.3 0.37 1.09 231 3.93 8.48 17 253.2 0.35 1.05 2.21 3.76 8.12 18 100.0 0.43 1.29 2.72 4.62 9.98 19 202.2 0.50 41.48 3.12 5.30 11,45 20 36.3 0.37 1.11 2.33 3.96 8.56 21 162.7 0.50 1.49 3.14 5.34 11.52 22 92.0 0.36 4.06 2.25 3.82 8.25 23 174.2 0.41 1.23 2.59 4.41 9.53 24 157.4 0.43 4.29 2.71 4.61 9.96 25 184.0 0.61 1.83 3.85 6.55 14.15 26 222.9 0.54 1.61 3.40 5.78 12.49 27 269.6 0.47 4.40 2.96 §.03 10.85 28 218.5 0.52 1.54 3.26 5.54 11.96 29 36.8 0.43 1.27 2.67 454 9.80 Total/Avg.|5168.2 0.43 1.29 272 4.63 10.00 10.2 PMP Comparison with Previous Studies There have been previous studies investigating PMP over the Upper Susitna drainage basin:the Susitna Hydroelectric Project Feasibility Report (Acres 1982)and the Harza-Ebasco Susitna Joint Venture (1984).The PMP calculation procedures and tools employed in this study have. significantly evolved since the publication of these PMP studies.However,the generalized approach of storm maximization and transposition is similar.Furthermore,despite the occurrence and analysis of recent precipitation events that have occurred since these studies,the August 1967 (the Great Fairbanks Flood)event remains the controlling storm for PMP. The Harza-Ebasco study reported an all-season basin average 72-hour PMP of 6.85”for 5,180 mi. A seasonality factor of 0.93 was applied to June 15"and a factor of 0.73 was applied to May 15", The 72-hour PMP from the Harza-Ebasco study is summarized in Table 10.2. FINAL DRAFT Page 69 03/07/14 ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1 407-REP-03071 4 Table 10.2.Harza-Ebasco 1984 Susitna 72-hour Basin PMP and spring season adjustments, 72-hour PMP:Harza-Ebasco Season Factor PMP |Al-season |__1.00 _|__6.85__|p 1s-Jun foL 0.93 |_L6.37__|15-May 0.73 5.00 The Acres study reported an all-season basin average 72-hour PMP of 5.90”for 5,180 mi?.A seasonality factor of 0.70 was applied to June 15".The Acres study did not seasonally adjust PMP to May.At the 216-hour duration,a basin average PMP of 12.54”was reported.The 72-hour PMP from the Acres study is summarized in Table 10.3 and the 216-hour PMP is summarized in Table 10.4. Table 10.3.Acres 1982 Susitna 72-hour Basin PMP and spring season adjustments. 72-hour PMP:Acres Season Factor PMP |All'season |=1.00 |st5.90__|] L 1SJun fo 0.70 |_4.13._J 15-May N/A N/A Table 10.4.Acres 1982 Susitna 216-hour Basin PMP and spring season adjustments. 216-hour PMP:Acres Season -Factor PMP |All-season |_1.00 _|_12.54 |1SJun_ft 0.70 _|__88.90._15-May N/A N/A The gridded basin average 72-hour PMP provided by AWA in this study is 7.43”for 5,132 mi', before the application of the various storm-based temporal distribution patterns.A seasonalityfactorof0.94 was applied to June 15"and a seasonality factor of 0.83 was applied to May 15".At the 216-hour duration,a basin average PMP of 12.54”was calculated.The 72-hour PMP from this study is summarized in Table 10.5 and the 216-hour PMP is summarized in Table 10.6 Table 10.5.AWA Susitna-Watana 72-hour Basin PMP and spring season adjustments 72-hour PMP:AWA Season Factor PMP |All-season |_-_1.00 |_743|1S-Jun_ft 0.94 |_6.98 _ 15-May 0.83 6.17 FINAL DRAFT Page 70 03/07/14 Ze ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 Table 10.6.AWA Susitna-Watana 216-hour Basin PMP and spring season adjustments 216-hour PMP:AWA Season Factor PMP |Al-season |_1.00 __|__10.02 _| |_15-Jun_{0.94 |_9.4215-May 0.83 8.32.| The ratio of AWA PMP to the Acres (72-hour and 216-hour)and Harza-Ebasco (216-hour)is shown in Table 10.7.. Table 10.7.Ratios of AWA PMP to the Acres and Harza-Ebasco studies. Ratio of AWA PMP to: Season Acres (72hr)Acres (216hr)Harza-Eb. |All-season [1.26 __|__0.80.[__1.08 __|_15-Jun_|169 |106 |110 15-May N/A N/A 1.23 Generally,the AWA PMP magnitudes are somewhat larger than previous estimates,particularly for the Acres study at 72-hours.There are numerous factors contributing to the differences stemming from both the source data and methods applied.There are several methodologies and data sets employed by the AWA PMP study that differ from previous studies and may contribute to differences in PMP.These include;high spatial and temporal resolution SPAS analyses for each storm and the resulting DAD tables and mass curves,updated storm maximization using SST data, improved geospatial technologies that allow for improved analysis of source moisture and storm maximization,gridded analysis of moisture and orographic transposition over the basin,availability of NOAA Atlas 14 values,and improved temperature-time series and seasonality relations.It is also likely that there are differences in the basin boundary delineation. 10.3 Comparison of PMP with NOAA Atlas 14 NOAA Atlas 14 Volume 7 provides gridded partial duration and annual maximum precipitation data over Alaska.In addition to return frequency analysis,these data can provide an accurate representation of the relationship between historical rainfall and terrain.PMP values were compared with 100-year rainfall values as a general check for reasonableness.The ratio of the PMP to the 24-hour 100-year return period rainfall amounts is generally expected to range between two and four,with values as low as 1.7 and as high as 5.5 found in HMRs 57 and 59 (Hansen et al. 1994,Corrigan et al.1999).In HMR 59 it is stated "...the comparison indicates that larger ratios are in lower elevations where short-duration,convective precipitation dominates,and smaller ratios in higher elevations where general storm,long duration precipitation is prevalent”. Therefore,it would be reasonable to expect the ratios for the Susitna River basin to be in the low end of the range. FINAL DRAFT Page 71 03/07/14 a A E ALASKAENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1 407-REP-030714 A gridded basin comparison was made between the 24-hour AWA PMP values and the 24-hour NOAA Atlas 14 precipitation frequency datasets.The NOAA Atlas 14 precipitation depths are considered point values and have no areal reduction applied.For this reason,the 24-hour basin PMP was calculated with the minimum SPAS resolution (0.20 mi')to approximate point values, instead of the basin size of 5,131 mi'.The ratio of 24-hour PMP to NOAA Atlas 14 precipitation was calculated for the 100-year return period.Table 10.8 shows the basin average NOAA Atlas 14 precipitation for 10-year through 1,000-year events.The 100-year basin average is 3.65”over 24-hours.The basin average 0.20 mi?PMP is 6.34”for a 24-hour period (Table 10.8).This indicates a factor of 1.74 times the 100-year NOAA Atlas 14 depth (Table 10.9).The largest ratio for all of the 4,013 grid points was 1.86 and the smallest ratio was 1.58,indicating a fairly low amount of variation over the basin. Table 10.8.Gridded basin average 24-hour NOAA Atlas 14 precipitation for the 10-1,000 year return periods.Gridded basin average 24-hour point PMP. 10-year |25-year [50-year (100-year |200-year |500-year |1,000-year 124-hr Precip.Frequency (NOAA Atlas 14)2.37 2.85 3.24 3.65 4.11 4.73 5.19 IGridded Basin Average 24-hour PMP (0.2sqmi)6.34 Table 10.9.Ratio of 24-hour PMP to 100-year NOAA Atlas 14 precipitation. Average Basin Ratio (24hr PMP:NOAA Atlas 14 100-yr)1.74 Max.Basin Ratio (24hr PMP:NOAA Atlas 14 100-yr)1.86 Min.Basin Ratio (24hr PMP:NOAA Atlas 14 100-yr)1.58 It should also be noted that the 24-hour basin average 1,000-year rainfall is 5.19”,putting the basin average PMP of 6.34”well above the 1,000 return frequency. FINAL DRAFT Page 72 03/07/14 -y : ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA 1.022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 11.DISCUSSION OF PMP PARAMETERS In the process of deriving SSPMP values,various assumptions and subjective judgments were made which affect the PMP values.In addition,specific procedures were used which could be derived from a range of possible alternatives and result in different values.Therefore,it is important to understand how the assumptions and choice of procedures used could potentially affect certain aspects of the SSPMP calculations. 11.1 Assumptions 11.1.1 Saturated Storm Atmospheres . The atmospheric air masses that provide moisture to both the historic storms and the PMP storm are assumed to be saturated through the entire depth of the atmosphere and to contain the maximum moisture possible based on the surface dew point.This assumes moist pseudo-adiabatic temperature profiles for both the historic storms and the PMP storm.Limited evaluation of this assumption in the EPRI Michigan/Wisconsin PMP study (Tomlinson 1993)and the Blenheim Gilboa (Tomlinson etal.2008)study indicated that historic storm atmospheric profiles are generally not entirely saturated and contain somewhat less precipitable water than is assumed in the PMP procedure.It follows that the PMP storm (if it were to occur)would also have somewhat less precipitable water available than the assumed saturated PMP atmosphere would contain.What is used in the PMP procedure is the ratio of precipitable water associated with each storm.If the precipitable water values for each storm are both slightly overestimated,the ratio of these values will be essentially unchanged..For example,consider the case where instead of a historic storm with a storm representative dew point of 70°F degrees having 2.25 inches of precipitable water assuming a saturated atmosphere,it actually had 90%of that value or about 2.02 inches.The PMP procedure assumes the same type of storm with similar atmospheric characteristics for the maximized storm but with a higher dew point,say 76°F degrees.The maximized storm,having similar atmospheric conditions,would have about 2.69 inches of precipitable water instead of the 2.99 inches associated with a saturated atmosphere with a dew point of 76°F degrees.The maximization factor computed using the assumed saturated atmospheric values would be 2.99/2.25 =1.33.If both storms were about 90%saturated instead,the maximization factor would be 2.69/2.02 =1.33.Therefore potential inaccuracy of assuming saturated atmospheres (whereas the atmospheres may be somewhat less than saturated)should have a minimal impact on storm maximization and subsequent PMP calculations. 11.1.2 Maximum Storm Efficiency The assumption is made that if a sufficient period of record is available for rainfall observations,at least a few storms would have been observed that attained the maximum efficiency possible for converting atmospheric moisture to rainfall for regions with similar meteorology and topography. The further assumption is made that if additional atmospheric moisture had been available,the FINAL DRAFT Page 73 03/07/14 -y ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1 407-REP-030714 storm would have maintained the same efficiency for converting atmospheric moisture to rainfall. The ratio of the maximized rainfall amounts to the actual rainfall amounts would be the same as the ratio of the precipitable water in the atmospheres associated with each storm. There are two issues to be considered.First is the assumption that a storm has occurred that has a rainfall efficiency close to the maximum possible.Unfortunately,state-of-the-science in meteorology does not support a theoretical evaluation of storm efficiency.However,if the period of record is considered (generally over 100 years),along with the extended geographic region with transpositionable storms,it is accepted that there should have been at least one storm with dynamics that approach the maximum efficiency for rainfall production. The other issue is the assumption that storm efficiency does not change if additional atmospheric moisture is available.Storm dynamics could potentially become more efficient or possibly less efficient depending on the interaction of cloud microphysical processes with the storm dynamics. Offsetting effects could indeed lead to the storm efficiency remaining essentially unchanged.For the present,the assumption of no change in storm efficiency is accepted. 11.2 Parameters This discussion applies to both dew points and SSTs although only SSTs will be addressed in this sections as SSTs are used as substitutes for land based dew points for all storms in this study for inflow vectors that originate over ocean regions and have the same sensitivity considerations. The maximization factor depends on the determination of storm representative SSTs,along with maximum historical SST values.The magnitude of the maximization factor varies depending on the values used for the storm representative SST and the maximum SST.Holding all other variables constant,the maximization factor is smaller for higher storm representative SSTs as well as for lower maximum SST values.Likewise,larger maximization factors result from the use of lower storm representative SSTs and/or higher maximum SSTs.The magnitude of the change in the maximization factor varies dependent on the SST values.For the range of SST values used in most PMP studies,the maximization factor for a particular storm will change about 5%for every 1°F difference between the storm representative and maximum SST values.The same sensitivity applies to the transposition factor,with about a 5%change for every 1°F change in either the in- place maximum SST or the transposition maximum SST. For example,consider the following case:\ Storm representative SST:75°F Precipitable water:2.85” Maximum SST:79°F Precipitable water:3.44” Maximization factor =3.447/2.85”=1.21 FINAL DRAFT Page 74 03/07/14 --y 'ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1 407-REP-03071 4 If the storm representative SST were 74°F with precipitable water of 2.73”, Maximization factor =3.44”/2.73”=1.26 (an increase of approximately 4%) If the maximum SST were 78°F with precipitable water of 3.29”, Maximization factor =3.29°/2.85”=1.15 (a decrease of approximately 5%) FINAL DRAFT Page 75 03/07/14 -w- ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 12.RECOMMENDATIONS FOR APPLICATION 12.1 Site-Specific PMP Applications Site-specific PMP values have been computed that provide rainfall amounts for use in computing the PMF.The study addressed several issues that could potentially affect the magnitude of the PMP storm over the Susitna-Watana basin. The HMRs use a procedure for locating the largest amounts of rainfall associated with the PMP storm,such that the largest volume of rain falls within the watershed boundaries,either using the 100-year 24-hour isopercental analysis or using a significant storm over the basin and the judgment of the user (HMR 57 Section 15.2,Step 9).As the authors of HMR 57 explicitly state in that section of the report,"It is left to a future study to resolve the issue of how to distribute general storm PMP...”This study has directly addressed this issue by using the gridded approach and developing spatial and temporal patterns based on the largest historic storm events that have occurred over the basin.Further,the temperature time series developed for this study explicitly addresses the antecedent and within-storm temperature profile that would be expected during a PMP storm over the basin,thereby eliminating much of the subjectivity employed in previous HMRs (e.g.HMR 57 Section 15.2 Step 10).These updated applications,based on actual data specific to the storms which affect this basin,allows the PMP rainfall to be distributed in a pattern that is physically possible based on the unique topography and climate of the basin.It is recommended that the use of the gridded approach to spatially distribute the PMP rainfall at each duration at each grid point be used to derive the PMF as presented in this report for the Susitna- Watana basin. The storm search and selection of storms for the short list emphasized storms with the largest rainfall values that occurred over areas that are both meteorologically and topographically similar to the Susitna-Watana drainage basin.Results of this study should not be used for watersheds where meteorological and/or topographical parameters are different from the Susitna-Watana drainage basin without further evaluation. 12.2 Calibration Storm Events AWA utilized the SPAS to analyze rainfall over the Susitna-Watana basin.Six storm events were selected for calibration of the PMF hydrologic model (Table 12.1).AWA analyzed a sufficiently large storm domain that included sufficient hourly rain gauge observations to calibrate the NEXRAD data if available over larger domain that included the Susitna-Watana region.Quality controlled NEXRAD data was acquired from Weather Decisions Technologies,Inc.Non-radar events utilized climatological basemaps to aid in the spatial distribution of precipitation. FINAL DRAFT Page 76 03/07/14 -Z ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEAM 1029 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1 407-REP-03071 4 Table 12.1.Six storm events were selected for hydrologic model calibration. Hydrologic Calibration Events Selected SPAS#Date Radar 1256 Sep-12 Yes 1269 Aug-71 No 1270 Aug-67 No 6008 Jun-64 No 6009 Jun-71 No 6010 Jun-72 No The rainfall analysis results were provided on a 1/3mi?grid with a temporal frequency of 60-minutes.In addition to the rainfall grids,clipped to the Susitna-Watana drainage,sub-basin average rainfall statistics were provided for all 34 sub-basins.Note,the calibration analysis included six extra sub-basins for calibration purposes to include the region immediately downstream of the dam site to the Gold Creek USGS gage. 12.2.1.September 14-30,2012 Precipitation The hourly precipitation grids derived from the SPAS 1256 analysis were used in conjunction with SPAS-Lite 6007 as the basis for the Susitna-Watana calibration.SPAS-Lite 6007 was utilized to fill in a longer duration than what was analyzed for SPAS 1256,the calibration period is referenced as SPAS 1256.The SPAS 1256 analysis encompassed the 34 sub-basins of Susitna-Watana.The SPAS 1256 hourly grids were clipped to each of the Susitna-Watana sub-basins,the sub-basin average statistics were calculated and added to an Excel spreadsheet used for hydrologic calibration.The calibration deliverables are based on the SPAS hourly precipitation data for 9/14- 30/2012.In general,between 0.80 and 10.30 inches of rain fell across the Susitna-Watana drainage (Figure 12.1 -12.3). FINAL DRAFT Page 77 03/07/14 Zw ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 aw SPAS1256 and SPAS-Lite 6007 Sub-Basin Precipitation September 14-30,2012 DBD fo.01 -1.00[7]5.01-6.00 [[]10.01 -12.00 FY 20.01 -22.00H &]1.01-2.00[]6.01-7.00 [7]12.01-14.00 [9 22.01 -24.00HP((]201-3.00[[]7.01-8.00 [7]14.01 -16.00 [7]24.01 -26.00S ([]301-4.00fJ801-9.00 Ej 16.01-18.00(_]2.01 -30.00 ®15 30 SE [[]401 -5.00 £9.01 -10.00 §J 18.01-20.00[]3001-3400 5 30 60oonme Figure 12.1.Total storm rainfall for SPAS 1256 across Susitna-Watana drainage. FINAL DRAFT Page 78 03/07/14 -Z- SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA11-022 13-1407-REP-030714 12.00 10.00 5 CumulativePrecipitation(in)2.00 0.00 4 8.00 4 6.00 7 4.00 4 Cumulative Precipitation ---Sub-Basin 4 --Sub-Basin 2-Sub-Basin3 --Sub-Basin4--Sub-Basin5 --Sub-Basin6Sub-Basin?Sub-Basin 3 ---Sub-Basin 9 - Sub-Basin 10 ---Ch B +1 1 Soh 4 12 --Sub-Basin 13 --Sub-Basin 14mmmSub-Basin 15 o--Sub-Basin 16--Sub-Basin 17 ---Sub-Basin 18--Sub-Basin 19 --Sub-Basin 20---Sub-Basin 21 - Sub-Basin 22Sub-Basin 23 -- Sub-Besin 24 --Sub-Basin 25 ---Sub-Basin 26 -- Sub-Basin 27 Sub-Basin 28 Sub-Basin 29 Sub-Basin 30 -Sub-Basin 31 Sub-Basin 32 Sub-Basin 33 Sub-Basin 34 Basin 101°121 «141°«161 181 «201 221 «241 261 281 301 321 341 361 381 401 Time-Step (60-minutes) Figure 12.2.Susitna-Watana sub-basin average accumulated rainfall SPAS 1256. FINAL DRAFT Page 79 03/07/14 --Z- SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 Incremental Precipitation 0.40 s --Sub-Basin 1 --Sub Basin2 --Sub-Basin3 -- Sub-Basin4 --Sub-Basin5 --Sub-Basiné --Sub-Basin?--Sub-Basin 8 -Sub-Basin 9 Sub-Basin 10 Sub-Basin 14 Sub-Basin 12 035 --Sub-Basini3 ---Sub-Basini4 --Sub-Basin?§--Sub-BasiniG6 --SubBasini?--Sub-Basin1¢ .--Sub-Basin19 --SubBasin20 --Sub-Basin21 --Sub-Basin22 --Sub8asin23 --Sub-Basin24 -Sub-Basin25 --Sub-Basin26 --Sub-Basin27 ---Sub-Basin28 -- -SubBasin29 --SubBasin30 -Sub-Basin 31 --Sub-Basin 32 oom Sub-Basin 33 - Sub-Basin 34 Basin030|pone ee in arenespin niitnns Tee oe .eotioaies : =§0.25 4rr) £ §020; Ss= J 8"0.15 0.10 0.05 )HeiWVER0.00 4 tN balan 241°261°281 301 321 341 361 «(384 (401 Time-Stap (60-minutes) Figure 12.3.Susitna-Watana sub-basin average incremental rainfall SPAS 1256. FINAL DRAFT Page 80 03/07/14 Zz .ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA 1.022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 12.2.2 August 14-17,1971 Precipitation The hourly precipitation grids derived from the SPAS 1269 analysis were used in conjunction with SPAS-Lite 6001 as the basis for the Susitna-Watana calibration.SPAS-Lite 6001 was utilized to fill in a longer duration than what was analyzed for SPAS 1269,the calibration period is referenced as SPAS 1269.The SPAS 1269 analysis encompassed the 34 sub-basins of Susitna-Watana.The SPAS 1269 hourly grids were clipped to each of the Susitna-Watana sub-basins,the sub-basin average statistics were calculated and added to an Excel spreadsheet used for hydrologic calibration.The calibration deliverables are based on the SPAS hourly precipitation data for 8/4- 17/1971.In general,between 1.50 and 5.80 inches of rain fell across the Susitna-Watana drainage (Figure 12.4 -12.6). 63'N- 62°N- 143Ww SPAS1269 and SPAS-Lite 6001 Sub-Basin Precipitation August 4-17,1977 [p)Precipitation (inches) H =0.49-1.00[]4.01 -5.00f7Ja01-900 [(]12.01-13.00HE[[]1.01-2.00[95.01 -6.00 [J 901 -10.00HEP([]201 -3.00((J6.01-7.00 [9 10.01-11.00 ')15 0 oa S (J301-4.00(]7.01 -8.00[]11.01-12.00 6 30 $0 120 Figure 12.4.Total storm rainfall for SPAS 1269 across Susitna-Watana drainage. FINAL DRAFT Page 81 03/07/14 -yw ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO -AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 Cumulative Precipitation 10,00 ---Sub-Basin 1 -Sub-8asin2--Sub-Basin $-Sub-Basin49.00 -Sub-Basin§-Sub-Basin6-Sub-Basin?--Sub-Basin8Sub-Basin 9 -Sub-Basin 108.00 4 |-- Sub-Basin11 -Sub-Basin12Sub-Basin 13 --Sub-Basin 14--Subd-Basin 15 -Sub-Basin 16--Sub-Basin 17 ---Sub-Basin 18=7.007 |--Sub-Basn18 ©--Sub-Basin20=--Sub-Basin 21 -Sub-Basin 22 &Sub-Sasin 23 --Sub-Basin 24'Ss 6.00 4 --Sub-Basin 25 Sub-Basin 26 z --- Sub-Basin27 ----- Sub-Basin 28 - =-Sub-Basin 29 Sub-Basin 90 of25.00,"Sub-Basin 34 Sub-Basin 32 ---a -- -Sub-Basin 33 Sub-Basin34 @ Basin i 2 B 400 = s EsVy 1 21 44 61 81 101 121.0 144.161188 204 2240241 261 281 ,301 /321 Time-Step (60-minutes) Figure 12.5.Susitna-Watana sub-basin average accumulated rainfall SPAS 1269, FINAL DRAFT Page 82 03/07/14 -y ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY =SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA 022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 Incremental Precipitation 0.70 ::- - Sub-Basin1 Sub-Basin 2 -Sub-Basin3 -- Sub-Basin4 --Sub-Basin 5 --Sub-Basin& --Sub-Basn7?--Sub-Basn8 --SubBasin9 --Sub-Basin10.--SubBasin11 --Sub-Basin12 --Sub-Basini3 -==-Sub-Basin 14 --Sub-Basint5 --Sub-Basin16 --Sub-Basini7 ----Sub-Basin 18 0.60 7 ---Sub-Basin19 --Sub-Basin20 --Sub-Sasin21 ---Sub-8asin22 -Sub-Basin23 -Sub-Basin24 --SubBasin25 --Sub-Basin26 ---SubBasin27 --- Sub-Basin28 Sub-Basin29 Sub-Basin30 Sub-Besin31 ---Sub-Basin 32 Sub-Basin 33 Sub-Basin 34 -Basin 0.50 3 = §S 0.4030. rs 2='a 0.30 o 2 a. ,a - -A v rT 1 21 41 61 31 101 121 141,1610 1810-201,2210 241 2610284301 321 Time-Step (60-minutes) Figure 12.6.Susitna-Watana sub-basin average incremental rainfall SPAS 1269. FINAL DRAFT Page 83 03/07/14 -zwO ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 12.2.3.August 8-21,1967 Precipitation The hourly precipitation grids derived from the SPAS 1270 analysis were used in conjunction with SPAS-Lite 6002 as the basis for the Susitna-Watana calibration.SPAS-Lite 6002 was utilized to fill in a longer duration than what was analyzed for SPAS 1270,the calibration period is referenced as SPAS 1270.The SPAS 1270 analysis encompassed the 34 sub-basins of Susitna-Watana.The SPAS 1270 hourly grids were clipped to each of the Susitna-Watana sub-basins,the sub-basin average statistics were calculated and added to an Excel spreadsheet used for hydrologic calibration.The calibration deliverables are based on the SPAS hourly precipitation data for 8/8- 21/1967.In general,between 0.50 and 7.20 inches of rain fell across the Susitna-Watana drainage (Figure 12.7 -12.9). SPAS1270 and SPAS-LIite 6002 Sub-Basin Precipitation Gauges August 8-21,1967 e oD Precipitation (inches) 8H fo22-1.00(7]401-5.00[]801-9.00 [[]12.01-13.00wHE[[]1.01-2.00[/]501-6.00§99.01 -10.00 (_]13.01-14.00 teswHEP{]201 -3.00 16.01 -7.00 f¥10.01 --11.00 0 4 30 60 ¢S (J301-400((]7.01-8.00 {J 11.01 -12.00 °30 7)120 Figure 12.7.Total storm rainfall for SPAS 1270 across Susitna-Watana drainage. FINAL DRAFT Page 84 03/07/14 SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA11-022 13-1407-REP-030714 Cumulative Precipitation 10.00 --Sub-Basin 4 Sub-Basin 2 --Sub-Basin3 Sub-Basin4 9.00 wou Sub-Basin 5 --Sub-Basin8--Sub-Basin7 --Sub-Baszin &--Sub-Basind commen Sub-Basin 108.00 4 o--Sub-Bssin 11 --Sub-Basin 12.--Sub-Bazin 13 ----Sub-Basin 14owenSub-Basin 15 --Sub-Basin 16--Sub-Basin 17 --Sub-Basin 18ez7-007 |--Ssub-Basin19 ©--Sub-Basin 20=-Sub-Basin 21 ommne Sub-Ba sin 225--Sub-Basin 23 --Sub-Basin 24'=8.00 --Sub-Basin 25 - -Sub-Basin 26 =--Sub-Basin27 Sub-Basin 28 &Sub-Basin 28 Sub-Basin 30 S 500 Sub-Basin 31 Sub-Basin 32 a Sub-Basin 33 Sub-Basin 34 °-Basin2 3 4004 2 i3 L*) 144°(161 181 20t 221 241 261 281 301 321 Time-Step (60-minutes} Figure 12.8.Susitna-Watana sub-basin average accumulated rainfall SPAS 1270. FINAL DRAFT Page 85 03/07/14 -yO ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 Incremental Precipitation 0.70 -Sub-Basin1 ---Sub-Basin 2 -Sub-Basin3 --Sub-Besin4 --Sub-Basin 5 --Sub-Basin6 --Sub-Basin7 --Sub-Basin8 --SubBasin§--Sub-Basint0 ---Sub-Basin11 --Sub-Basint2 -_--Sub-Basin13 --Sub-Basin 14 =---Sub-Basini6 ===-Sub-Basini6 -==-Sub-Basin17 oo Sub-Basin 18 0.60 --Sub-Basin19 ---Sub-Basin20 9 --=="Sub-Basin21 9 ---Sub-Basin22.) --Sub-Basin23.==Sub-Basin 24 - --Sub-Basin25 ----SubBasin26 ---SubBasin27 --SubBasinz28 -SubBasin29 -- SubBasin30 - Sub-Basin31 ----Sub-Basin32_----Sub-Basin33_-Sub-Basin34 --Basin 0.50 4 = bs 2 0.40& rr & g'a 0.304 ° 2a 0.20 0.10 + 0.00 + 41 21 41 61 81 101 121 141 161 181 201 221 241 261 281 301 324 Time-Step (60-minutes) Figure 12.9.Susitna-Watana sub-basin average incremental rainfall SPAS 1270. FINAL DRAFT Page 8&6 03/07/14 -Z- ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 12.2.4 May 27,1964 -June 13,1964 Precipitation The hourly precipitation grids derived from the SPAS-Lite 6008 analysis were used as the basis for the Susitna-Watana basin calibration.The SPAS-Lite 6008 analysis encompassed the 34 sub-basins of Susitna-Watana.The SPAS-Lite 6008 hourly grids were clipped to each of the Susitna-Watana sub-basins,the sub-basin average statistics were calculated and added to an Excel spreadsheet used - for hydrologic calibration.The calibration deliverables are based on the SPAS hourly precipitation data for 5/27/1964 -6/13/1964.In general,between 0.20 and 1.50 inches of rain fell across the Susitna-Watana drainage (Figure 12.10 -12.12). 64K 63°N- SPAS-Lite 6008 Sub-Basin Precipitation May 27 -June 13,1964 ep Precipitation (inches) w H =ooo -0.25(7]1.01 -1.25[(]201 -2.25 7]3.01 -3.25wHE£]026 -0.50[]1.26 -1.50 [_]2.26 -2.50 ["]3.26 -3.50@HP[Jos1-0.75 £91.51 -1.75 Bj251 -2.75[J 351 -3.75 )15 30 6 ©8 [[Jo76-1.00[]1.76 -2.00 [9276 -3.00 °30 7)120 Figure 12.10.Total storm rainfall for SPAS 6008 across Susitna-Watana drainage. FINAL DRAFT Page 87 ;03/07/14 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. -Z- SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA11-022 13-1407-REP-030714 Cumulative Precipitation 2.00 --Sub-Basin 1 --Sub-Basin 2 -Sub-Basin 3 Sub-Basin41.80 7 --Sub-Basin §--Sub-Basin 6--Sub-Basin7 onmee Sub-Bazin 8-Sub-Basin 9 -Sub-Basin 104604|"-"Sub-Basin11 =--Sub-Basin12:-Sub-Basin13 =-SubBasin 14-Sub-Basin1S =--Sub-Basin 16-SubBasn17 |--Sub-Basin18=140 -Sub-Basin19 =--Sub-Basin20=--Sub-Basin 21 ---Sub-Basin 22c--Sub-Basin23 --Sub-Basin 242120Sub-Basin25 --Sub-Baxin26z---Sub-Basin 27 ---Sub-Basin 28 a ---Sub-Basin 29 Sub-Basin30&s00+Sub-Basin 34 Sub-Basin32aSub-Basin 33 Sub-Basin34©--Basin2 B 0.80 E ©060 0.40 0.20 0.00 +--rr1.21 41 GT 81 101 121 141 161 181 201 221 241 261 281 301 321 341 361 381 401 421 Time-Step (60-minutes) Figure 12.11.Susitna-Watana sub-basin average accumulated rainfall SPAS 6008. FINAL DRAFT Page 88 03/07/14 Zz SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 Incremental Precipitation 0.50 --Sub-Basin 1 -Sub-Basin 2 Sub-Basin 3 -Sub-Basin4 --SubBasin5 --Sub-Basin6 - -Sub-Basin7 ---Sub-Basin8 --SubBasin 9 --Sub-Basin10 --Sub-Basin11 --==Sub-Basin12 ---Sub-Basin 13 Sub-Basin14 --Sub-Basin15 ---Sub-Basin16 -=<-Sub-Basin17 --Sub-Basin18 --SubBasin19 --SubBasin20 --Sub-Basin2i1 --SubBasin22 --Sub-Basin23 --Sub-Basin24 040 +Sub-Basin25 ----SubBasin26 ---SubBasin27 -- -SubBasin28 -----Sub-Basin29 --Sub-Basin30 ,- - Sub-Basin31 |-- -Sub-Basin32_Sub-Basin33_Sub-Basin34.--Basin = §0.30 + © & e 2 ' 3 = a 2 0.20 + a 0.10 + a 0.00 .VFO:= 1 210641 «64 84 101 121 141 161 181 201 221 241 261 281 301 321 341 361 381 401 421 Time-Step (60-minutes) Figure 12.12.Susitna-Watana sub-basin average incremental rainfall SPAS 6008. FINAL DRAFT Page 89 03/07/14 -Z- ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 12.2.5 June 3-17,1971 Precipitation The hourly precipitation grids derived from the SPAS-Lite 6009 analysis were used as the basis for the Susitna-Watana basin calibration.The SPAS-Lite 6009 analysis encompassed the 34 sub-basins of Susitna-Watana.The SPAS-Lite 6009 hourly grids were clipped to each of the Susitna-Watana sub-basins,the sub-basin average statistics were calculated and added to an Excel spreadsheet used for hydrologic calibration.The calibration deliverables are based on the SPAS hourly precipitation data for 6/3-17/1971.In general,between 0.20 and 1.30 inches of rain fell across the Susitna- Watana drainage (Figure 12.13 -12.15). Meee lt a .Lo,Sie ae ae . =-:+"a batemren Fe ete eT ee te ean :ving arin bagi arnt aes ; .Briveot gt on a .5 ,Sos forage'' " SPAS-Lite 6009 Sub-Basin Precipitation June 3-17,1971 0.03-0.25 [7]1.01 -1.25[201 -2.25 [7]3.01 -3.25(0.26-0.50 [7 1.26 -1.50 FJ 2.26 -2.50[_]3.26 -3.50(Jost -0.75 [J 1.51 -1.75 [9251 -2.75 6 15 0 60 (lo76 -1.00[(]1.76 -2.00 £.J 276 -3.00 °30 r)120 Figure 12.13.Total storm rainfall for SPAS 6009 across Susitna-Watana drainage. FINAL DRAFT Page 90 03/07/14 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. Zz SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA11-022 13-1407-REP-030714 Cumulative Precipitation 2.00 --Sub-Basin t --Sub-Basin2 --SubBasin3 --Sub-Basin4 1.80 4 --Sub-Basin§--Sub-Basin6-Sub-Basin7 ---Sub-Basin 8Sub-Basin9?-Sub-Basin 10 160 4 Sub-Basin 11 --Sub-Basin12.--Sub-Basin 13 -Sub-Basin 14 --Sub-Basin 15 --Sub-Basin16 --Sub-Basin 17 -Sub-Basin 18a1407|--subfssn19 ©-Sub-Basin20=--Sub-Basin 21 ---Sub-Basin225-Sub-Basin 23 --Sub-Basin 24=1204 --Sub-Basin 25 --Sub-Basin 26=--Sub-Basin 27 --Sub-Basin 28aSub-Basin29 Sub-Basin 30 ®4.00 Sub-Basin 31 Sub-Basin 32 a Sub-Basin 33 Sub-Basin 34 @ ===Basin2 S 0804 E 2 0.60 0.40 | 0.20 4 0.00 jaaaceencaieeieeecieee - 21.44 «61 81 101 124 144 Time-Step (60-minutes) Figure 12.14.Susitna-Watana sub-basin average accumulated rainfall SPAS 6009. FINAL DRAFT Page 91 03/07/14 -z- SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 Incremental Precipitation 0.50 --Sub-Basin1 -SubBasin2 --SubBasin3 ---SubBasind --SubBasnS =-=Sub-Basiné --Sub-Basin7 --Sub-Basin 8 --Sub-Basin 9 --Sub-Basin10 --SubBasin11 --Sub-Basin12 --Sub-Basin13 -=-Sub-Basin14 -<-Sub-Basini1S -<--SubBasin16 ---Sub-Basin?#7 --Sub-Basin18 --Sub-Basin19 --Sub-Basin20 -=-Sub-Basin2i1 --Sub-Basin22 --SubBasin23 ---SubBasin24 0.40 --Sub-Basin25 -SubBasin26 --Sub-Basin27 --SubBasm28 ---SubBasin29 ---SubBasin30 ° - Sub-Basin31 Sub-Basin32 Sub-Basin33 -Sub-Basin34 -- Basin = &0.30 wo = rH 2 =Stc a= 2 0.20 a 0.104 i at 'eee 0.00 +A ---A Nuprel 1 21 41 61 81 101 1210 «1414 (161)181 2010-2240 «241 2610 281301)«321 344 Time-Step (60-minutes) Figure 12.15,Susitna-Watana sub-basin average incremental rainfall SPAS 6009. FINAL DRAFT Page 92 03/07/14 Zw ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 12.2.6 June 7-22,1972 Precipitation The hourly precipitation grids derived from the SPAS-Lite 6010 analysis were used as the basis for the Susitna-Watana basin calibration.The SPAS-Lite 6010 analysis encompassed the 34 sub-basins of Susitna-Watana.The SPAS-Lite 6010 hourly grids were clipped to each of the Susitna-Watana sub-basins,the sub-basin average statistics were calculated and added to an Excel spreadsheet used for hydrologic calibration.The calibration deliverables are based on the SPAS hourly precipitation data for 6/7-22/1972.In general,between 0.50 and 1.50 inches of rain fell across the Susitna- Watana drainage (Figure 12.16 -12.18). 19w 63'N4 SPAS-Lite 6010 Sub-Basin Precipitation June 7-22,1972 D =0.02 -0.25[7]1.01 -1.50 F251 -3.00e mw H £]026 -0.50 £91.51 -1.75 £301 -3.50mHP(Jo51-0.75{/]1.76-2.00[_]3.51 -4.00 r)18 30 60 ¢$ [[Jo76 -1.00[7]201 -2.50[]>4.00 f)30 60 120 Figure 12.16.Total storm rainfall for SPAS 6010 across Susitna-Watana drainage. FINAL DRAFT Page 93 03/07/14 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. -wZ- SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA11-022 13-1407-REP-030714 2.00 Cumulative Precipitation 1.80 CumulativePrecipitation(in)5Ss--Sub-Basin 1 --Sub-Basin 3 --Sub-Basin 5commSub-Basin 7ooSub-Basin 9 --Sub-Basin 11 --Sub-Basin 13 =Sub-Basin 15 --Sub-Basin 17 --Sub-Basin 19 --Sub-Basin 21 Sub-Basin 23 Sub-Basin 25 --Sub-Basin 27 --- Sub-Basin 29 -Sub-Basin 31 «Sub-Basin 33 -Basin i Sub-Basin 2 Sub-Basin 4 oowme Sub-Basin 8a=Sub-Basin&--Sub-Basin 10---Sub-Basin 12ooSub-Basin 14 --Sub-Basin 16 --Sub-Basin 18 --Sub-Basin 20--Sub-Basin 22 Sub-Basin 24 --Sub-Basin 26 Sub-Basin 28 Sub-Basin 30 Sub-Basin 32 Sub-Basin 34 81 104 12 «141 161 181 201 221 244 261 ny T T 281 301 32112461 341 361 381 Time-Step (60-minutes) Figure 12.17.Susitna-Watana sub-basin average accumulated rainfall SPAS 6010. FINAL DRAFT Page 94 03/07/14 -Z-' ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1 407-REP-03071 4 Incremental Precipitation 0.50 -Sub-Basin1 --Sub-Basin2 --SubBasin3 Sub-Basin4 Sub-Basin5 --Sub-Basiné o--Sub-Basin7 --Sub-Basin8 --Sub-Basind om Sub-Basint0Q --Sub-Basinif -=--Sub-Basini2 Sub-Basin 13 Sub-Basint4 --SubBasin1S --- SubBasini16 --Sub-Basint1?--SubBasini8 enon Sub-Basin 19 9 ==- Sub-Basin20 -=--Sub-Basin21 ----=Sub-Basin22 ----Sub-Basin23 --Sub-Basin24 0.40 Sub-Basin26 --SubBasin26 --Sub8asin27 ----SubBasin28 ---SubBasin29 -Sub-Basin30 .= Sub-Basin31 Sub-Basin32_---- -SubBasin33_--SubBasin34_---Basin = 3 0.30 4= rs 2&h-4 &2 0.20 4 a ' 0.10 || é 0.00 +ano -my hi --= 1 21 4641 -=-OB1 81 101 121)144 «161 «181 201)«221 241 261 281 301 321 341 361 381 Thne-Step (60-minutes) Figure 12.18.Susitna-Watana sub-basin average incremental rainfall SPAS 6010. 12.3 Meteorological Time Series for Calibration Events Hourly meteorological time series were developed for the six calibration events (see Table 12.1). The meteorological time series parameters derived were temperature,dew point temperature and wind speed over the Susitna-Watana basin.The hydrologic model requirements were a single temperature and dew point temperature time series at a given base elevation and wind speed at 1,000-ft increments from 0 -15,000-ft.Temperature lapse rates were estimated using observed surface temperature data for stations in and around the Susitna River basin and the Fairbanks and Anchorage radiosonde data. Vertical wind speed profiles at 1,000-ft increments were derived based on wind speed data from the Fairbanks radiosonde data and observed surface wind speed data for stations in and around the Susitna-Watana basin.The radiosonde wind speed represents free atmospheric wind (unobstructed flow).The free-air data were adjusted to surface wind speeds based on comparisons of anemometer level wind speeds with concurrent free-air wind speeds.The wind speed derivation methodology was based on methods described in HMR 42 (Weather Bureau 1966).HMR 42 measured winds at Gulkana glacier (4,800 ft)and compared them to free-air winds at Fairbanks;the study found that average wind on the glacier was 0.60 that of the free-air.In this updated analysis,comparisons FINAL DRAFT .Page 95 03/07/14 yw ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 were made using both Anchorage and Fairbanks radiosonde data.This analysis showed the Anchorage radiosonde data were not as representative of the surface wind speeds over the basin based on comparisons made to the September 2012 storm event.Instead,the Fairbanks data better represented the timing and magnitude of the observed surface wind speeds. 12.3.1 September 14-30,2012 Meteorological Time Series Temperature lapse rates were estimated using observed surface temperature data for stations in and around the Susitna-Watana basin.Lapse rates were derived each hour using observed surface data at two locations.Station based lapse rates were calculated between:i)Independence Mine and Talkeetna,ii)PAZK and Talkeetna,iii)PAZK and Renee,and iv)Monahan Flats and McKinley. The hourly lapse rates were used to calculate an average lapse rate for the entire calibration period and an average lapse rate based on when rain was occurring during the calibration event (Table 12.2). Station data were also used to derive an average station based lapse rate for each hour of the storm event.The stations used for this analysis were PAZK,PANC,Blair Lakes,Dunkle Hills,Eielson VC,Paxson,Renee,Toklat,Independence Mine,Monahan Flat,Susitna VH,Tokositna Valley, Fairbanks,Ft Greeley,Gulkana,McKinley NP,Palmer,and Talkeetna.The station average lapse rate was derived using linear regression between temperature and elevation.Based on the hourly station data linear relationship,a lapse rate (regression slope)was calculated for each hour of the analysis period.The average of the station based lapse rates (based on linear regression)was compared to individual station (station 1 @ X elevation compared to station 2 @ X elevation)based lapse rates discussed above (Table 12.2). Vertical temperature at 1,000-foot increments from 0 -6,000-ft were derived base on temperature data from the Fairbanks radiosonde.The Fairbanks radiosonde lapse rate data were used to calculate an average lapse rate for the entire calibration period (Table 12.2).The radiosonde wind speed represents free atmospheric winds,unobstructed flow,the free-air data were adjusted to surface wind speeds based on comparisons of anemometer level wind speeds with concurrent free- air wind speeds.Surface wind speeds were compared at six locations with varying elevations across the Susitna River basin to the Fairbanks free-air wind speeds.The average free-air adjustment for the six stations was 0.620 with a maximum of 0.968 and a minimum of 0.385 (Table 12.3).In order to convert free-air wind speed data to anemometer level wind speeds the adjustment/ratio is applied to the free-air data.For example,at 1,000-foot elevation free-air wind speed is 45-mph would be 30-mph at the anemometer level (45-mph *0.666 =30-mph).The radiosonde data are measured every 12-hours (O-UTC and 12-UTC),the 12-hour data were interpolated to hourly data using the bounding hourly data and a linear relationship. FINAL DRAFT Page 96 03/07/14 -Z- SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA11-022 13-1407-REP-030714 Table 12.2.Station based and radiosonde based lapse rates for September 14-30,2012. Station Comparisons Hourly Hourly Rainfall FAI Average Average Radiosonde Indep.Mine vs.Talkeetna -2.50 -1.98 - PAZK vs.Talkeetna -2.17 -1.69 - PAZK vs.Renee -3.10 -3.64 - Monahan Flatvs.McKinley =-1.73 -2.53 - All Stations -2.40 -2.38 - Average -2.38 -2.44 -2.43 Table 12.3.Fairbanks radiosonde free-air wind speed conversion ratio to anemometer height wind speed for September 14-30,2012. .FAI Station Elevation Radiosonde(ft);Ratio Gulkana 1500 0.968 McKinley 1500 0.471 Talkeetna 500 0.769 PAZK 3500 0.385 Renee 2500 0.623 Eielson 3500 0.505 Average 0.620 Maximum 0.968 Minimum 0.385 The final temperature and dew point temperature series were based on surface data at Monahan Flats,Alaska with a base elevation of 2,700-ft (Figure 12.19).The Monahan Flats station data were selected because it was within the Susitna River basin and provided a complete and representative profile of temperature and dew point temperature.The lapse rate used to adjust temperature and dew point temperature to other elevations was -2.40°F.The -2.40°F lapse rate was based on the average of all station comparisons.The final vertical wind speed data were based on Fairbanks free-air wind speeds with an adjustment ratio of 0.620 applied to represent anemometer level wind speeds (Figure 12.20). FINAL DRAFT Page 97 03/07/14 a A E ALASKAENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,retiable energy for the next 100 years.1 3-1 407-REP-03071 4 70.0 eameTemperature e@==Dew PointTemperature 60.0 - '1 Degrees(F)3oO20.0 5 -10.0 SEAL SESE Nn ene Ss nee ee eee eee Sane a ee ee --1-pny 0 24 48 72 96 120 144)168 192.216 240 264 288 312 336 360 384 408 Index Hour Figure 12.19.Temperature and dew point time series based on surface data at Summit,Alaska with a base elevation of 2,400-ft and lapse rate of -2.40°F for September 14-30,2012. 70 ---FAIO --FAl 1000 --FA!2000 --FAi 3000 --FAI 4000 --FAI5000 -- FAI 6000 --FAI 7000 om FAI 8000 WindSpeed(mph)--Fai9000 mone FAL 10000 --FAI11000 --FAI 12000 ---FAI 13000 w---FAI 14000 om FAI 15000 Figure 12.20.Wind speed data based on Fairbanks free-air wind speeds with an adjustment ratio of 0.62 applied to represent anemometer level wind speeds for September 14-30,2012. 12.3.2 August 4-17,1971 Meteorological Time Series Temperature lapse rates were estimated using observed surface temperature data for stations in and around the Susitna-Watana basin.Lapse rates were derived each hour using observed surface data at two locations.Station based lapse rates were calculated between:i)Talkeetna and Summit,ii) Anchorage and Gulkana,iii)Ft Greeley and Summit,and iv)Ft Greeley and Fairbanks.The hourly FINAL DRAFT Page 98 03/07/14 we ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 lapse rates were used to calculate an average lapse rate for the entire calibration period and an average lapse rate based on when rain was occurring during the calibration event (Table 12.4). Station data were also used to derive an average station based lapse rate for each hour of the storm event.The stations used for this analysis were PANC,Anchorage,Fairbanks,Ft Greeley,Gulkana, Summit,and Talkeetna.The station average lapse rate was derived using linear regression between temperature and elevation.Based on the hourly station data linear relationship,a lapse rate (regression slope)was calculated for each hour of the analysis period.The average of the station based lapse rates (based on linear regression)was compared to individual station (station 1 @ X elevation compared to station 2 @ X elevation)based lapse rates discussed above (Table 12.4). Vertical temperature at 1,000-foot increments from 0 -6,000-ft were derived base on temperature data from the Fairbanks radiosonde.The Fairbanks radiosonde lapse rate data were used to calculate an average lapse rate for the entire calibration period (Table 12.4). Table 12.4.Station based and radiosonde based lapse rates for August 4-17,1971. Station Comparisons Hourly Hourly Rainfall FAI Average Average Radiosonde Talkeetna vs.Summit -3.31 -2.62 - Anchorage vs.Gulkana -0.86 0.17 - Ft Greely vs.Summit -3.34 -5.15 - Ft Greely vs.Fairbanks -2.47 -2.18 - All Stations ,-2.27 -2.11 - Average*=-2.85 -3.01 -3.40 *Comparison excludes Anchorage vs.Gulkana lapse rate The radiosonde wind speed represents free atmospheric winds,unobstructed flow,the free-air data were adjusted to surface wind speeds elevations based on comparisons of anemometer level wind speeds with concurrent free-air wind speeds.Surface wind speeds were compared at six locations with varying elevations across the Susitna River basin to the Fairbanks free-air wind speeds (Table 12.5).The average free-air adjustment for the six stations was 0.666 with a maximum of 0.895 and a minimum of 0.390.In order to convert free-air wind speed data to anemometer level wind speeds the adjustment/ratio is applied to the free-air data.For example,at 1,000-foot elevation free-air wind speed is 45-mph would be 30-mph at the anemometer level (45-mph *0.666 =30-mph).The radiosonde data are measured every 12-hours (0O-UTC and 12-UTC),the 12-hour data were interpolated to hourly data using the bounding hourly data and a linear relationship. FINAL DRAFT Page 99 03/07/14 zw ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 106 years.13-1407-REP-030714 Table 12.5.Fairbanks radiosonde free-air wind speed conversion ratio to anemometer height wind speed for August 4-17,1971. Elevation FAI Station Radiosonde(ft);Ratio Gulkana 1500 0.768 Summit 2500 0.608 Talkeetna 500 0.390 Anchorage 0 0.869 Ft Greely 1500 0.468 Fairbanks 500 0.895 Average 0.666 Maximum 0.895 Minimum 0.390 The final temperature and dew point temperature series were based on surface data at Summit, Alaska with a base elevation of 2,400-ft (Figure 12.21).The Summit station data were selected because it was in close proximity to the Susitna River basin and provided a complete and representative profile of temperature and dew point temperature.The lapse rate used to adjust temperature and dew point temperature to other elevations was -2.85°F.The -2.85°F lapse rate was based on the average of all station comparison except the Anchorage and Gulkana comparison.The final vertical wind speed data were based on Fairbanks free-air wind speeds with an adjustment ratio of 0.666 applied to represent anemometer level wind speeds (Figure 12.22). 80.0 em=eTemperature eee Dew PointTemperature70.0 abdto)wn2onDegrees(F)3owoo20.0 0.0 a a ee See Se 0 24 48 72 96 1220 «144C-i«168 =192 216 2402640288312:386 Index Hour Figure 12.21.Temperature and dew point temperature series based on surface data at Summit,Alaska with a base elevation of 2,400-ft and lapse rate of -2.85°F for August 4-17,1971. FINAL DRAFT Page 100 03/07/14 -w- ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 80 --FAIO -FAI 1000 oem FAI 2000 FAI 3000 --FAI 4000 50 4 --FAI5000 oFAl6000 -FAI 7000 oom§Al8000 -FAI9000 --fAl 10000 -FAI11000 a+FAI 12000 -FAI 13000 ---FAI14000 704 60 WindSpeed(mph]-->FAI15000 Figure 12.22.Wind speed data based on Fairbanks free-air wind speeds with an adjustment ratio of 0.666 applied to represent anemometer level wind speeds for August 4-17,1971. 12.3.3 August 8-21,1967 Meteorological Time Series Temperature lapse rates were estimated using observed surface temperature data for stations in and around the Susitna-Watana basin.Lapse rates were derived each hour using observed surface data at two locations.Station based lapse rates were calculated between:i)Talkeetna and Summit,ii) Anchorage and Gulkana,iii)Ft Greeley and Summit,and iv)Ft Greeley and Fairbanks.The hourly lapse rates were used to calculate an average lapse rate for the entire calibration period and an average lapse rate based on when rain was occurring during the calibration event (Table 12.6). Station data were also used to derive an average station based lapse rate for each hour of the storm event.The stations used for this analysis were KINR,Anchorage,Cordova,Fairbanks,Ft Greeley, Gulkana,Nenana,Summit,and Talkeetna.The station average lapse rate was derived using linear regression between temperature and elevation.Based on the hourly station data linear relationship, a lapse rate (regression slope)was calculated for each hour of the analysis period.The average of the station based lapse rates (based on linear regression)was compared to individual station (station 1 @ X elevation compared to station 2 @ X elevation)based lapse rates discussed above (Table 12.6). Vertical temperature at 1,000-foot increments from 0 -6,000-ft were derived base on temperature data from the Fairbanks radiosonde.The Fairbanks radiosonde lapse rate data were used to calculate an average lapse rate for the entire calibration period (Table 12.6). FINAL DRAFT Page 101 03/07/14 -y SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA11-022 13-1407-REP-030714 Table 12.6.Station based and radiosonde based lapse rates for August 8-21,1967. Station Comparisons Hourly Hourly Rainfall FAI Average Average Radiosonde Talkeetna vs.Summit -3.51 -3.83 - Anchorage vs.Gulkana -1.72 -2.13 - Ft Greely vs.Summit -7,.33 -7.22 - Ft Greely vs.Fairbanks 0.46 0.17 - All Stations -1.39 -1.35 - Average*=-2.70 -2.87 -3.25 *-2.87 was used based on testing lapse rate at Summit to Anchorage and Nenana The radiosonde wind speed represents free atmospheric winds,unobstructed flow,the free-air data were adjusted to surface wind speeds elevations based on comparisons of anemometer level wind speeds with concurrent free-air wind speeds.Surface wind speeds were compared at six locations with varying elevations across the Susitna River basin to the Fairbanks free-air wind speeds (Table 12.7).The average free-air adjustment for the six stations was 0.610 with a maximum of 0.813 and a minimum of 0.337.In order to convert free-air wind speed data to anemometer level wind speeds the adjustment/ratio is applied to the free-air data.For example,at 1,000-ft elevation free-air wind speed is 45-mph would be 30-mph at the anemometer level (45-mph *0.620 =27.5- mph).The radiosonde data are measured every 12-hours (0-UTC and 12-UTC),the 12-hour data were interpolated to hourly data using the bounding hourly data and a linear relationship. Table 12.7.Fairbanks radiosonde free-air wind speed conversion ratio to anemometer height wind speed for August 8-21,1967. Elevation FAI Station Radiosonde(ft).Ratio Gulkana 1500 0.813 Summit 2500 0.643 Talkeetna 500 0.662 Cordova 0 0.337 Ft Greely 1500 0.411 Fairbanks 500 0.519 Average*0.610 Maximum 0.813 Minimum 0.337 *Average excludes Cordova FINAL DRAFT Page 102 03/07/14 -Z A E ASUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO renter Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 The final temperature and dew point temperature series were based on surface data at Summit, Alaska with a base elevation of 2,400-ft (Figure 12.23).The Summit station data were selected because it was in close proximity to the Susitna River basin and provided a complete and representative profile of temperature and dew point temperature.The lapse rate used to adjust temperature and dew point temperature to other elevations was -2.87°F.The final vertical wind speed data were based on Fairbanks free-air wind speeds with an adjustment ratio of 0.610 applied to represent anemometer level wind speeds (Figure 12.24). 80.0 eumeTemperature emmeDew PointTemperature Degrees(F}booOo0.0 a TT 0 24 48 72 96 120 144 168 192 216 240 264 288 312 336 Index Hour Figure 12.23,Temperature and dew point temperature series based on surface data at Summit,Alaska with a base elevation of 2,400-ft and lapse rate of -2.87°F for August 8-21,1967. 20 --FAIO --FAi 1000 70 woman FAI 2000 =FAI 3000 0 es Se streeta nee wen ee ee ce ee ee tne cnnntme ane cee saan mt ane cnet oe ee mmmFAI4000 ---FAI S000 FAI 6000 --FAI 7000 oweFAL8000 ---FAI 9000 -FAI 10000 --FAI11000 ---FAI 12000 a FAI 13000 FAI 14900 ---FA!15000wiJWindSpeed(mph)$isdca7rooFigure 12.24.Wind speed data based on Fairbanks free-air wind speeds with an adjustment ratio of 0.610 applied to represent anemometer level wind speeds for August 8-21,1967. FINAL DRAFT Page 103 03/07/14 -yO ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 12.3.4 May 27,1964 -June 13,1964 Meteorological Time Series Temperature lapse rates were estimated using observed surface temperature data for stations in and around the Susitna-Watana basin.Lapse rates were derived each hour using observed surface data at two locations.Station based lapse rates were calculated between:i)Talkeetna and Summit,ii) Anchorage and Gulkana,iii)Ft Greeley and Summit,and iv)Ft Greeley and Fairbanks.The hourly lapse rates were used to calculate an average lapse rate for the entire calibration period and an average lapse rate based on when rain was occurring during the calibration event (Table 12.8). Station data were also used to derive an average station based lapse rate for each hour of the storm event.The stations used for this analysis were PANC,Anchorage,Fairbanks,Ft Greeley,Gulkana, Summit,and Talkeetna.The station average lapse rate was derived using linear regression between temperature and elevation.Based on the hourly station data linear relationship,a lapse rate (regression slope)was calculated for each hour of the analysis period.The average of the station based lapse rates (based on linear regression)was compared to individual station (station 1 @ X elevation compared to station 2 @ X elevation)based lapse rates discussed above (Table 12.8). Vertical temperature at 1,000-foot increments from 0 -6,000-ft were derived base on temperature data from the Fairbanks radiosonde.The Fairbanks radiosonde lapse rate data were used to calculate an average lapse rate for the entire calibration period (Table 12.8). Table 12.8 Station based and radiosonde based lapse rates for May 27 -June 13,1964. Station Comparisons Hourly Hourly Rainfall FAI P Average Average Radiosonde Talkeetna vs.Summit -4,17 -4.09 - Anchorage vs.Gulkana 0.02 1.35 - Ft Greely vs.Summit -5.93 -7.36 - Ft Greely vs.Fairbanks -1.18 -0.27 - All Stations -3.01 -2.08 - Average* -3.57 -3.45 -3.54 *Comparison excludes Anchorage vs.Gulkana lapse rate The radiosonde wind speed represents free atmospheric winds,unobstructed flow,the free-air data were adjusted to surface wind speeds elevations based on comparisons of anemometer level wind speeds with concurrent free-air wind speeds.Surface wind speeds were compared at six locations with varying elevations across the Susitna River basin to the Fairbanks free-air wind speeds (Table 12.9).The average free-air adjustment for the six stations was 0.614 with a maximum of 0.839 and a minimum of 0.448.In order to convert free-air wind speed data to anemometer level wind speeds the adjustment/ratio is applied to the free-air data.For example,at 1,000-ft elevation free-air wind speed is 45-mph would be 30-mph at the anemometer level (45-mph *0.614 = FINAL DRAFT Page 104 03/07/14 2: ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA1woe Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 27.6-mph).The radiosonde data are measured every 12-hours (0O-UTC and 12-UTC),the 12-hour data were interpolated to hourly data using the bounding hourly data and a linear relationship. Table 12.9.Fairbanks radiosonde free-air wind speed conversion ratio to anemometer height wind speed for May 27 -June 13,1964. Elevation FAIStationRadiosonde(ft);Ratio Gulkana 1500 0.571 Summit 2500 0.615 Talkeetna 500 0.448 Anchorage 0 0.839 Ft Greely 1500 0.525 ; Fairbanks 500 0.685 Average 0.614 Maximum 0.839 Minimum 0.448 The final temperature and dew point temperature series were based on surface data at Summit, Alaska with a base elevation of 2,400-ft (Figure 12.25).The Summit station data were selected because it was in close proximity to the Susitna River basin and provided a complete and representative profile of temperature and dew point temperature.The lapse rate used to adjust temperature and dew point temperature to other elevations was -3.57°F.The -3.57°F lapse rate was based on the average of all station comparison except the Anchorage and Gulkana comparison.The final vertical wind speed data were based on Fairbanks free-air wind speeds with an adjustment ratio of 0.614 applied to represent anemometer level wind speeds (Figure 12.26). emaeTemperature ex=eDew PointTemperature Degrees(F)0.0 at O 24 48 72 96 120 144 168 192 216 240 264 288 312 336 360 384 408 432 Index Hour Figure 12.25.Temperature and dew point temperature series based on surface data at Summit,Alaska with a base elevation of 2,400-ft and lapse rate of -3.57°F for May 27 -June 13,1964. FINAL DRAFT Page 105 03/07/14 -zZ ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 -FAI0 --FAI 1000 --FAI 2000 amen FA!3000 -FAI 4000 28 4---Tr oes 7 poe se -Toa 7 Te Tee --FAI 5000 =--FAL6000 ---FAI 7000 mm FAI 8000 --FAI 9000 --FAI 10000WindSpeed(mph)3w1--FAI11000 ---FAI 12000 ---FA!13000 - FAI 14000 --FAI 35000 Figure 12.26.Wind speed data based on Fairbanks free-air wind speeds with an adjustment ratio of 0.614 applied to represent anemometer level wind speeds for May 27 -June 13,1964. 12.3.5 June 3-17,1971 Meteorological Time Series Temperature lapse rates were estimated using observed surface temperature data for stations in and around the Susitna-Watana basin.Lapse rates were derived each hour using observed surface data at two locations.Station based lapse rates were calculated between:i)Talkeetna and Summit,ii) Anchorage and Gulkana,iii)Ft Greeley and Summit,and iv)Ft Greeley and Fairbanks.The hourly lapse rates were used to calculate an average lapse rate for the entire calibration period and an average lapse rate based on when rain was occurring during the calibration event (Table 12.10). Station data were also used to derive an average station based lapse rate for each hour of the storm event.The stations used for this analysis were PANC,Anchorage,Fairbanks,Ft Greeley,Gulkana, Summit,and Talkeetna.The station average lapse rate was derived using linear regression between temperature and elevation.Based on the hourly station data linear relationship,a lapse rate (regression slope)was calculated for each hour of the analysis period.The average of the station based lapse rates (based on linear regression)was compared to individual station (station 1 @ X elevation compared to station 2 @ X elevation)based lapse rates discussed above (Table 12.10). Vertical temperature at 1,000-foot increments from 0 -6,000-ft were derived base on temperature data from the Fairbanks radiosonde.The Fairbanks radiosonde lapse rate data were used to calculate an average lapse rate for the entire calibration period (Table 12.10). FINAL DRAFT Page 106 03/07/14 --Z- SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA11-022 13-1407-REP-030714 Table 12.10.Station based and radiosonde based lapse rates for June 3-17,1971. ..Hourly Hourly Rainfall FAIStationComparisons.Average Average Radiosonde Talkeetna vs.Summit -3.89 -3.44 - Anchorage vs.Gulkana 1.99 0.92 - Ft Greely vs.Summit -12.35 -11.15 - Ft Greely vs.Fairbanks -3.39 -2.83 - All Stations -2.05 -2.49 - Average*-3.11 -2.92 -3.76 *Comparison excludes Anchorage vs.Gulkana lapse rate *Comparison excludes Ft Greeley vs.Summit lapse rate The radiosonde wind speed represents free atmospheric winds,unobstructed flow,the free-air data were adjusted to surface wind speeds elevations based on comparisons of anemometer level wind speeds with concurrent free-air wind speeds.Surface wind speeds were compared at six locations with varying elevations across the Susitna River basin to the Fairbanks free-air wind speeds (Table 12.11).The average free-air adjustment for the six stations was 0.785 with a maximum of 0.946 and a minimum of 0.493.In order to convert free-air wind speed data to anemometer level wind speeds the adjustment/ratio is applied to the free-air data.For example,at 1,000-ft elevation free-air wind speed is 45-mph would be 30-mph at the anemometer level (45-mph *0.785 =35.3- mph).The radiosonde data are measured every 12-hours (0-UTC and 12-UTC),the 12-hour data were interpolated to hourly data using the bounding hourly data and a linear relationship. Table 12.11.Fairbanks radiosonde free-air wind speed conversion ratio to anemometer height wind speed for June 3-17,1971. Elevation -FAI Station Radiosonde(ft).Ratio Gulkana 1500 0.895 Summit 2500 0.719 Talkeetna 500 0.493 Anchorage 0 0.909 Ft Greely 1500 0.910 Fairbanks 500 0.946 Average*0.785 Maximum 0.946 Minimum 0.493 *Average excludes Anchorage FINAL DRAFT Page 107 03/07/14 -y ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 The final temperature and dew point temperature series were based on surface data at Summit, Alaska with a base elevation of 2,400-ft (Figure 12.28).The Summit station data were selected because it was in close proximity to the Susitna River basin and provided a complete and representative profile of temperature and dew point temperature.The lapse rate used to adjust temperature and dew point temperature to other elevations was -2.90°F.The -2.90°F lapse rate was based on the average of all station comparison except the Anchorage and Gulkana comparison and Ft Greeley and Summit comparison.The final vertical wind speed data were based on Fairbanks free-air wind speeds with an adjustment ratio of 0.785 applied to represent anemometer level wind speeds (Figure 12.28). ea=pTemperature emm Dew Pointfemperature Degrees(F)3oaVi Ce a a 0 24 48 72 96 120 144 168 192 216 240 264 288 #+%$312 336 360 index Hour Figure 12.27.Temperature and dew point temperature series based on surface data at Summit,Alaska with a base elevation of 2,400-ft and lapse rate of -2.90°F for June 3-17,1971. 45 --FAIO --FAi 1000 35 --FAL2000 oe FA!3000 --FAI 4000 --FAISO00 --FAI 6000 --FAI 7000 4 =-FA!8000 --FAI9000 --FAI 10000 -FAI21000 FAI 12000 ---FAI 13000 ---FA1 14000 ---FAL 15000 30 Nwnyc<7WindSpeed(mph)w10 Figure 12.28.Wind speed data-based on Fairbanks free-air wind speeds with an adjustment ratio of 0.785 applied to represent anemometer level wind speeds for June 3-17,1971. FINAL DRAFT Page 108 03/07/14 -y . ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYD RO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 12.3.6 June 7-22,1972 Meteorological Time Series Temperature lapse rates were estimated using observed surface temperature data for stations in and around the Susitna-Watana basin.Lapse rates were derived each hour using observed surface data at two locations.Station based lapse rates were calculated between:i)Talkeetna and Summit, ii)Anchorage and Gulkana,iii)Ft Greeley and Summit,and iv)Ft Greeley and Fairbanks.The hourly lapse rates were used to calculate an average lapse rate for the entire calibration period and an average lapse rate based on when rain was occurring during the calibration event (Table 12.12). Station data were also used to derive an average station based lapse rate for each hour of the storm event.The stations used for this analysis were PANC,Anchorage,Fairbanks,Ft Greeley,Gulkana, Summit,and Talkeetna.The station average lapse rate was derived using linear regression between temperature and elevation.Based on the hourly station data linear relationship,a lapse rate (regression slope)was calculated for each hour of the analysis period.The average of the station based lapse rates (based on linear regression)was compared to individual station (station 1 @ X elevation compared to station 2 @ X elevation)based lapse rates discussed above (Table 12.12). Vertical temperature at 1,000-foot increments from 0 -6,000-ft were derived base on temperature data from the Fairbanks radiosonde.The Fairbanks radiosonde lapse rate data were used to calculate an average lapse rate for the entire calibration period (Table 12.12). Table 12.12.Station based and radiosonde based lapse rates for June 7-22,1972, Station Comparisons Hourly Hourly Rainfall FAI Average Average Radiosonde Talkeetna vs.Summit -3.20 -2.16 - Anchorage vs.Gulkana 1.06 0.84 - Ft Greely vs.Summit -5,19 -6.53 - Ft Greely vs.Fairbanks -1.36 -2.13 - All Stations -1.65 -1.30 - Average* -2.85 -3.03 -3.52 *Comparison excludes Anchorage vs.Gulkana lapse rate The radiosonde wind speed represents free atmospheric winds,unobstructed flow,the free-air data were adjusted to surface wind speeds elevations based on comparisons of anemometer level wind speeds with concurrent free-air wind speeds.Surface wind speeds were compared at six locations with varying elevations across the Susitna River basin to the Fairbanks free-air wind speeds (Table 12.13).The average free-air adjustment for the six stations was 0.887 with a maximum of 0.979 and a minimum of 0.748.In order to convert free-air wind speed data to anemometer level wind speeds the adjustment/ratio is applied to the free-air data.For example,at 1,000-ft elevation FINAL DRAFT Page 109 03/07/14 -yw A E ASUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO ce eR EAL O22 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 free-air wind speed is 45-mph would be 30-mph at the anemometer level (45-mph *0.887 = 39.9-mph).The radiosonde data are measured every 12-hours (O-UTC and 12-UTC),the 12-hour data were interpolated to hourly data using the bounding hourly data and a linear relationship. Table 12.13.Fairbanks radiosonde free-air wind speed conversion ratio to anemometer height wind speed for June 7-22,1972. Elevation FAI Station Radiosonde(ft).Ratio Gulkana 1500 0.979 Summit 2500 0.914 Talkeetna 500 0.886 Anchorage 0 0.929 Ft Greely 1500 0.748 Fairbanks 500 0.868 Average 0.887 Maximum 0.979 Minimum 0.748 The final temperature and dew point temperature series were based on surface data at Summit, Alaska with a base elevation of 2,400-ft (Figure 12.29).The Summit station data were selected because it was in close proximity to the Susitna River basin and provided a complete and representative profile of temperature and dew point temperature.The lapse rate used to adjust temperature and dew point temperature to other elevations was -2.85°F.The -2.85°F lapse rate was based on the average of all station comparison except the Anchorage and Gulkana comparison.The final vertical wind speed data were based on Fairbanks free-air wind speeds with an adjustment ratio of 0.887 applied to represent anemometer level wind speeds (Figure 12.30). emmmTemperature e=x=eDew PointTemperature Degrees(F)ae Se a 0 24 48 72 96 120 144 168 192 216 240 264 288 312 336 360 384 Index Hour Figure 12.29,Temperature and dew point temperature series based on surface data at Summit,Alaska with a base elevation of 2,400-ft and lapse rate of -2.85°F for June 7-22,1972. FINAL DRAFT Page 110 ;03/07/14 - -yz SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA11-022 13-1407-REP-030714 --FAIO -FAI 1000 WindSpeed(mph)----FAI 2000 -- FAI 3000 ---FA!4000 --FAI 5000 =FAI 6000-FN 7000 mmmFAI8000 --FAI 9000 ---FAI 10000 = FAIL 1000 --- FALE2000 --FAI 13000 -FAI 14000 -- -FAI 15000 Figure 12.30.Wind speed data based on Fairbanks free-air wind speeds with an adjustment ratio of 0.887 applied to represent anemometer level wind speeds for June 7-22,1972. FINAL DRAFT Page 111 03/07/14 -z ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 GLOSSARY Adiabat:Curve of thermodynamic change taking place without addition or subtraction of heat. On an adiabatic chart or pseudo-adiabatic diagram,a line showing pressure and temperature changes undergone by air rising or condensation of its water vapor;a line,thus,of constant potential temperature. Adiabatic:Referring to the process described by adiabat. Advection:The process of transfer (of an air mass property)by virtue of motion.In particular cases,advection may be confined to either the horizontal or vertical components of the motion. However,the term is often used to signify horizontal transfer only. Air mass:Extensive body of air approximating horizontal homogeneity,identified as to source region and subsequent modifications. Barrier:A mountain range that partially blocks the flow of warm humid air from a source of moisture to the basin under study. Basin centroid:The point at the exact center of the drainage basin as determined through geographical information systems calculations using the basin outline. Cold front:Front where relatively colder air displaces warmer air. Convergence:Horizontal shrinking and vertical stretching of a volume of air,accompanied by net inflow horizontally and internal upward motion. Cyclone:A distribution of atmospheric pressure in which there is a low central pressure relative to the surroundings.On large-scale weather charts,cyclones are characterized by a system of closed constant pressure lines (isobars),generally approximately circular or oval in form,enclosing a central low-pressure area.Cyclonic circulation is counterclockwise in the northern hemisphere and clockwise in the southern.(That is,the sense of rotation about the local vertical is the same as that of the earth's rotation.) dBZ:It is a meteorological measure of equivalent reflectivity (Z)of a radar signal reflected off a remote object.The reference level for Z is 1 mm®m™,which is equal to 1 jum'.It is related to the number of drops per unit volume and the sixth power of drop diameter. Depth-Area curve:Curve showing,for a given duration,the relation of maximum average depth to size of area within a storm or storms. FINAL DRAFT Page GL-1 03/07/14 Zz ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA 1022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 Depth-Area-Duration:The precipitation values derived from Depth-Area and Depth-Duration curves at each time and area size increment analyzed for a PMP evaluation. Depth-Area-Duration values:The combination of depth-area and duration-depth relations.Also called depth-duration-area. Decimal Degrees:Latitude and longitude geographic coordinates as decimal fractions and are used in many Geographic Information Systems (GIS).Decimal degrees are an alternative to usingdegrees,minutes,and seconds.As with latitude and longitude,the values are bounded by 90°and +180°each.Positive latitudes are north of the equator,negative latitudes are south of the equator. Positive longitudes are east of Prime Meridian,negative longitudes are west of the Prime Meridian. Latitude and longitude are usually expressed in that sequence,latitude before longitude. Depth-Duration curve:Curve showing,for a given area size,the relation of maximum average depth of precipitation to duration periods within a storm or storms. Dew point:The temperature to which a given parcel of air must be cooled at constant pressure and constant water vapor content for saturation to occur. Envelopment:A process for selecting the largest value from any set of data.In estimating PMP, -the maximum and transposed rainfall data are plotted on graph paper,and a smooth curve is drawn through the largest values. Front:The interface or transition zone between two air masses of different parameters.The parameters describing the air masses are temperature and dew point. General storm:A storm event,that produces precipitation over areas in excess of 500-square miles,has a duration longer than 6 hours,and is associated with a major synoptic weather feature. HYSPLIT:HYbrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory.A complete system for computing parcel trajectories to complex dispersion and deposition simulations using either puff or particle approaches.Gridded meteorological data,on one of three conformal (Polar,Lambert,or Mercator latitude-longitude grid)map projections,are required at regular time intervals. Calculations may be performed sequentially or concurrently on multiple meteorological grids, usually specified from fine to coarse resolution. In-Place Maximization Factor:The adjustment factor representing the maximum amount of atmospheric moisture that could have been present to the storm for rainfall production Isohyets:Lines of equal value of precipitation for a given time interval. Isohyetal Pattern:The pattern formed by the isohyets of an individual storm. FINAL DRAFT Page GL-2 03/07/14 -y ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 Jet Stream:A strong,narrow current concentrated along a quasi-horizontal axis (with respect to the earth's surface)in the upper troposphere or in the lower stratosphere,characterized by strong vertical and lateral wind shears.Along this axis it features at least one velocity maximum (jet streak).Typical jet streams are thousands of kilometers long,hundreds of kilometers wide,and several kilometers deep.Vertical wind shears are on the order of 10 to 20 mph per kilometer of altitude and lateral winds shears are on the order of 10 mph per 100 kilometer of horizontal distance. Mass curve:Curve of cumulative values of precipitation through time. Mid-latitude frontal system:An assemblage of fronts as they appear on a synoptic chart north of the tropics and south of the polar latitudes.This term is used for a continuous front and its characteristics along its entire extent,its variations of intensity,and any frontal cyclones along it. Moisture Transposition Factor:The adjustment factor which accounts for the difference in available moisture between the location where the storm occurred and the Susitna River basin Observational day:The 24-hour time period between daily observation times for two consecutive days at cooperative stations,e.g.,6:00PM to 6:00PM. One-hundred year rainfall event:The point rainfall amount that has a one-percent probability of occurrence in any year.Also referred to as the rainfall amount that on the average occurs once ina hundred years or has a 1 percent chance of occurring in any single year. Orographic Rainfall:Rainfall enhancement resulting mainly from the forced lifting of moisture- laden air masses by elevated terrain,when combined with unstable atmospheric conditions often results in heavy (high intensity,long duration)rainfall at rates higher than what would be experienced if the elevated terrain were not present. Orographic Transposition Factor:A factor obtained from the results of the proportionality constant calculation which compares the 24-hour precipitation frequency characteristics between the storm target and source locations Polar front:A semi-permanent,semi-continuous front that separates tropical air masses from polar air masses. Precipitable water:The total atmospheric water vapor contained in a vertical column of unit cross-sectional area extending between any two specified levels in the atmosphere;commonly expressed in terms of the height to which the liquid water would stand if the vapor were completely condensed and collected in a vessel of the same unit cross-section.The total precipitable water in the atmosphere at a location is that contained in a column or unit cross-section extending from the FINAL DRAFT Page GL-3 03/07/14 zw ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 .Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 earth's surface all the way to the "top”of the atmosphere.The 30,000 foot level (approximately 300mb)is considered the top of the atmosphere in this study. Persisting dew point:The dew point value at a station that has been equaled or exceeded throughout a specific period of time.Commonly durations of 12 or 24 hours are used,though other durations may be used at times. Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP):Theoretically,the greatest depth of precipitation for a given duration that is physically possible over a given size storm area at a particular geographic location at a certain time of the year. Pseudo-adiabat:Line on thermodynamic diagram showing the pressure and temperature changes undergone by saturated air rising in the atmosphere,without ice-crystal formation and without exchange of heat with its environment,other than that involved in removal of any liquid water formed by condensation. Pseudo-adiabatic:Referring to the process described by the pseudo-adiabat. Rainshadow:The region,on the lee side of a mountain or mountain range,where the precipitation is noticeably less than on the windward side. PMP storm pattern:The isohyetal pattern that encloses the PMP area,plus the isohyets of residual precipitation outside the PMP portion of the pattern. Saturation:Upper limit of water-vapor content in a given space;solely a function of temperature. Short list of storms:The short list of storms is the final list of storms used to derive the site- specific PMP values for the basin.The list represents the most extreme historic storms of record that are considered to be PMP-type storm events. Spatial distribution:The geographic distribution of precipitation over a drainage according to an idealized storm pattern of the PMP for the storm area. Storm maximization:The process of adjusting observed precipitation amounts upward based upon the hypothesis of increased moisture inflow to the storm.(Also referred to as "moisture maximization”in HMR 57.) Storm transposition:The hypothetical transfer,or relocation of storms,from the location where they occurred to other areas where they could occur.The transfer and the mathematical adjustment of storm rainfall amounts from the storm site to another location is termed "explicit transposition.” The areal,durational,and regional smoothing done to obtain comprehensive individual drainage estimates and generalized PMP studies is termed "implicit transposition”(WMO,1986). FINAL DRAFT Page GL-4 ,03/07/14 ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 Synoptic:Showing the distribution of meteorological elements over an area at a given time,e.g.,a synoptic chart.Use in this report also means a weather system that is large enough to be a major feature on large-scale maps (e.g.,of the continental U.S.). Temporal distribution:The time order in which incremental PMP amounts are arranged within a PMP storm. Tropical Storm:A cyclone of tropical origin that derives its energy from the ocean surface. Transposition limits:The outer boundaries of the region surrounding an actual storm location that has similar,but not identical,climatic and topographic characteristics throughout.The storm can be transpositioned within the transposition limits with only relatively minor modifications to the observed storm rainfall amounts. FINAL DRAFT Page GL-5 03/07/14 we ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS USED IN THIS REPORT ALERT:Automated Local Evaluation in Real Time AWA:Applied Weather Associates,LLC DA:Depth-Area DAD:Depth-Area-Duration .dbf:Database file extension DD:Depth-Duration dd:decimal degrees DEM:Digital elevation model DND:drop number distribution DSD:drop size distribution EPRI:Electric Power Research Institute F;Fahrenheit FERC :Federal Energy Regulatory Commission ft:feet GIS:Geographical Information System GRASS:Geographic Resource Analysis Support System HMR:Hydrometeorological Report HYSPLIT:Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Model IPMF:In-Place Maximization Factor mb:millibar _mph:Mile per hour MTF:Moisture Transposition Factor FINAL DRAFT Page A&A-1 03/07/14 --ywO -ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1 407-REP-030714 NCAR:National Center for Atmospheric Research NCDC:National Climatic Data Center NCEP:National Centers for Environmental Prediction NESDIS:National Environmental Satellite,Data,and Information Service NEXRAD:National Weather Service 88-D Next Generation Radar NOAA:National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NWS:National Weather Service PMF:Probable Maximum Flood OTF:Orographic Transposition Factor PMP:Probable Maximum Precipitation PW:Precipitable water QC:Quality control R:Rainfall rate RAWS:Remote Automated Weather Station SNOTEL:Snow Telemetry station SPAS:Storm Precipitation and Analysis System SPP:Storm Precipitation Period SSPMP:Site-specific Probable Maximum Precipitation SST:Sea Surface Temperature USACE:US Army Corps of Engineers USGS:United States Geological Survey WMO:World Meteorological Organization Z:Radar reflectivity,measured in units of dBZ FINAL DRAFT Page A&A-2 03/07/14 -y ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 REFERENCES American Meteorological Society,1996:Glossary of Weather and Climate,Boston,Ma.,272 pp. Bao,J.W.,S.A.Michelson,P.J.Neiman,F.M.Ralph,and J.M.Wilczak,2006:Interpretation of Enhanced Integrated Water Vapor Bands Associated with Extratropical Cyclones:Their Formation and Connection to Tropical Moisture.Mon.Wea.Rev.,134,1063-1080. 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Rolph,G.D.,2010.Real-time Environmental Applications and Display sYstem (READY)Website http://ready.arl.noaa.gov.NOAA Air Resources Laboratory,Silver Spring,MD. Schreiner,L.C.,and J.T.Riedel,1978:Probable Maximum Precipitation Estimates,United StatesEastofthe105"Meridian.Hydrometeorological Report No.51,U.S.Department of Commerce,Silver Spring,MD,242pp. Smith,C.D.,1950:The Intense Pacific Coast Storms of October 26-28,1950,Monthly Weather Review,191-195. Spatial Climate Analysis Service,Oregon Climate Service,Oregon State University. http://www.ocs.orst.edu/prism/. Tomlinson,E.M.,1993:Probable Maximum Precipitation Study for Michigan and Wisconsin, Electric Power Research Institute,Palo Alto,Ca,TR-101554,V1. FINAL DRAFT Page REF-4 03/07/14 - fe ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 ---.,Williams,R.A.,and T.W.Parzybok,September 2002:Site-Specific Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP)Study for the Upper and Middle Dams Drainage Basin,Prepared for FPLE,Lewiston,ME. ,Williams,R.A.,and T.W.Parzybok,September 2003:Site-Specific Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP)Study for the Great Sacandaga Lake /Stewarts Bridge Drainage Basin, Prepared for Reliant Energy Corporation,Liverpool,New York. --,Williams,R.A.,and T.W.Parzybok,September 2003:Site-Specific Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP)Study for the Cherry Creek Drainage Basin,Prepared for the Colorado Water Conservation Board,Denver,CO. ,Kappel W.D.,Parzybok,T.W.,Hultstrand,D.,Muhlestein,G.,and B.Rappolt,May 2008: Site-Specific Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP)Study for the Wanahoo Drainage Basin,Prepared for Olsson Associates,Omaha,Nebraska. ,Kappel W.D.,Parzybok,T.W.,Hultstrand,D.,Muhlestein,G.,and B.Rappolt,June 2008: Site-Specific Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP)Study for the Blenheim Gilboa Drainage Basin,Prepared for New York Power Authority,White Plains,NY. ,Kappel W.D.,and T.W.Parzybok,February 2008:Site-Specific Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP)Study for the Magma FRS Drainage Basin,Prepared for AMEC, Tucson,Arizona. ,Kappel,W.D.,and T.W.Parzybok,December 2008:Statewide Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP)Study for the State of Nebraska. ,Kappel,W.D.,and T.W.Parzybok,February 2009:Site-Specific Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP)Study for the Tuxedo Lake Drainage Basin,New York. ,Kappel,W.D.,and T.W.Parzybok,July 2009:Site-Specific Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP)Study for the Scoggins Dam Drainage Basin,Oregon. ,Kappel,W.D.,and T.W.Parzybok,February 2010:Site-Specific Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP)Study for the Magma FRS Drainage Basin,Arizona. ,and W.D.Kappel,October 2009:Revisiting PMPs,Hydro Review,Vol.28,No.7,10-17. U.S.Weather Bureau,1951:Tables of Precipitable Water and Other Factors for a Saturated Pseudo- Adiabatic Atmosphere.Technical Paper No.14,U.S.Department of Commerce,Weather Bureau,Washington,D.C.,27 pp. U.S.Weather Bureau,1963,Rainfall Frequency Atlas of the United States,for Duration of 30 Minutes to 24 Hours and Return Periods of 1 to 100 Years,Technical Paper Number 40,U.S.Department of Commerce,Washington,DC,65 pp. FINAL DRAFT Page REF-5 03/07/14 -yw ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA41-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 Woodruff,S.D.,H.F.Diaz,S.J.Worley,R.W.Reynolds,and S.J.Lubker,2005:Early ship observational data and ICOADS.Climatic Change,73,169-194. World Meteorological Organization,2009:Manual for Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation,Operational Hydrology Report No 1045,WMO,Geneva,259 pp. Worley,S.J.,S.D.Woodruff,R.W.Reynolds,S.J.Lubker,and N.Lott,2005:ICOADS Release 2.1 data and products.Jnt.J.Climatol.(CLIMAR-II Special Issue),25,823-842. FINAL DRAFT Page REF-6 03/07/14 -y . ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.,13-1407-REP-030714 Appendix A Sea Surface Temperatures Climatology Maps FINAL DRAFT 03/07/14 Zz SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA11-022 13-1407-REP-030714 +2 sigma (1982-2012)Jan SST (DegF)NOAA Ol.v2 Sea Surface Temperature a ne -ee are?ra) Ft TES =€Fed wae,="w %aah +2 sigma (1982-2012)Feb SST (DegF)NOAA Ol.v2 Sea Surface Temperature . pre "gt - .:.rer -ee te :ae -a 2.S tos oe 4 FINAL DRAFT Page A-1 03/07/14 -y ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 +2 sigma (1982-2012)Mar SST (DegF)NOAA Ol.v2 Sea Surface Temperature i -7 °-«fant ”ra on a in Pe ee te aal. r -eee 8 eee tad fe 7 7 Po rea?oa te . .-nal aa °Eom a uf Ca Toe ¢+od +A ==' ¢son +2 sigma (1982-2012)Apr SST (DeogF)NOAA Ol.v2 Sea Surface Temperature an . «'.Se wo vi .Be co 7 " ro oe - te 7 :Sete,oan "args oeoeSS e-"Tu Zz ;4 ve a r 1s a t ¢Bs ta teny,'uw #ae 1se v lf t FINAL DRAFT Page A-2 03/07/14 -y ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 +2 sigma (1982-2012)May SST (DegF)NOAA Ol.v2 Sea Surface Tempersture . . 7 -era + r Ube ae he ..sac?ae Ps Las s ae Le,A 4 1 +2 sigma (1982-2012)Jun SST (DegF)NOAA Ol.v2 Sea Surface Temperature 2 nae =eS TSE é ee Bee 4 "iy yj aed FINAL DRAFT Page A-3 03/07/14 Zz SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA11-022 13-1407-REP-030714 .os wae . r 2 eae Pal \ fe .STS2 =©- r- -é ae 7 * =ane cee :Fe eg: optPe Ee cae . 2 - ™ tos ©t te Loy 4 's 3 =t +2 sigma (1982-2012)Jul SST (DegF)NOAA Ol.v2 Sea Surface Temperature +2 sigma (1982-2012)Aug SST (DegF)NOAA Ol.v2 Sea Surface Temperature .eee #'mg ee Vv,ay ca -'ie ® -: ©- es ".-ae fa &cs Ce ilo ars £3 aT tae .weefe Ea we oe -ot av VoSe 8s TELA BU 4 '¥%ahd FINAL DRAFT Page A-4 03/07/14 -ywO SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA11-022 13-1407-REP-030714 +2 sigma (1982-2012)Sep SST (DegF)NOAAO lv2 Sea Surface Temperature Ogee a a +2 AR"Oi (1982-2012)Oct SST (DegF)NOA Ol.v2 Sea Surface Temperature saeaatieva FINAL DRAFT Page A-5 03/07/14 --za- SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA11-022 13-1407-REP-030714 +2 sigma (1982-2012)Nov SST (Deg)NOAA Ol.v2 Sea Surface Temperature oat oe =. :a +2 sigma (1982-2012)Dec SST (DegF)NOAA Ol.v2 Sea Surface Temperature FINAL DRAFT Page A-6 03/07/14 -yO ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 Appendix B PYTHON Code for ArcGIS PMP Calculation Tool FINAL DRAFT 03/07/14 -Z- ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 Name:PMP_Calc.py Version:1.00 ArcGIS Version:ArcGIS Desktop 10.2 SP1 (2013) Author:Applied Weather Associates Usage:The tool is designed to be executed within the ArcMap or ArcCatalog desktop environment. Required Arguments: -A basin outline polygon shapefile or feature class -Directory location path of the "PMP_Evaluation_Tool”folder -String of durations to analyze. Description: This tool calculates PMP depths for a given drainage basin for the specified durations.PMP values are calculated (in inches)for each grid point (spaced at 90 arc-second intervals) within (or adjacent to)the drainage basin.A GRID raster layer is created over the basin from the grid point PMP values. ##import Python modules import sys import arcpy from arcpy import env import arcpy.management as dm import arcpy.conversion as con arcpy.env.overwriteOutput =True #Set overwrite option ##get input parameters basin =arcpy.GetParameter(0)#get AOI Basin Shapefile home =arcpy.GetParameterAsText(1)#get location of 'PMP'Project Folder durinput =arcpy.GetParameter(2)'#get durations (string) dadGDB =home +"\input\\DAD_Tables.gdb”#location of DAD tables adjFactGDB =home +"\Input\\Storm_Adj_Factors.gdb”#location of feature datasets containing total adjustment factors def pmpAnalysis(aoiBasin,stormType): ##Create PMP Point Feature Class from points within AOI basin and add fields def createPMPfe(): global outPath env.workspace =outPath +"PMP.gdb”#set environment workspace arcpy.AddMessage("InCreating feature class:PMP_Points...”)dm.MakeFeatureLayer(home +'\lnput\Non_Storm_Data.gdb\\Vector_Grid\\Vector_Grid_AZ',"vgLayer”)#make a feature layer of vector grid cells dm.SelectLayerByLocation("vgLayer',"INTERSECT”,aoiBasin)#select the vector grid cells that intersect the aoiBasin polygon dm.MakeFeatureLayer(home +"\Input\Non_Storm_Data.gdb\\Vector_Grid\\Grid_Points_AZ',"gpLayer')#make a feature layer of grid points dm.SelectLayerByLocation("gpLayer',"HAVE_THEIR_CENTER_IN',"vgLayer')#select the grid points within the vector grid selection con.FeatureClassToFeatureClass("gpLayer”,env.workspace,"PMP_Points”)#save feature layer as "PMP_Points”feature class arcpy.AddMessage("("+str(dm.GetCount("gpLayer'))+"grid points wil!be analyzed)') #Add PMP Fields for dur in durList: FINAL DRAFT Page B-1 03/07/14 a A E ALASKAENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 arcpy.AddMessage('Inlt...adding field:PMP_”+str(dur)) dm.AddField('PMP_Points”,"PMP_”+dur,"DOUBLE”) #Add STORM Fields (this string values identifies the driving storm by SPAS ID number) for dur in durList: arcpy.AddMessage('Init...adding field:STORM_.”+str(dur)) dm.AddField("PMP_Points”,"STORM_”+dur,"TEXT”,","",16) def getAOlarea(): sr =arcpy.Describe(aoiBasin).SpatialReference #Determine aoiBasin spatial reference system smname =sr.name srtype =sr.type srunitname =sr.linearUnitName #Units arcpy.AddMessage("\nAOl Basin Spatial Reference:"+srname +"'\nUnit Name:"+srunitname +"\nSpatial Ref.type:"+ srtype) aoiArea =0.0 rows =arcpy.SearchCursor(aoiBasin) for row in rows: feat =row.getValue("Shape”) aoiArea +=feat.area if srtype =='Geographic':#Must have a surface projection arcpy.AddMessage("inThe basin shapefile's spatial reference "+srtype +"is not supported.Please use a 'Projected' shapefile or feature class.\n")raise SystemExit elif srtype =='Projected': if srunitname =="Meter”: aoiArea =aoiArea *0.000000386102 #Converts square meters to square miles elif srunitname =="Foot”or "Foot_US”: aoiArea =aoiArea *0.00000003587 #Converts square feet to square miles else: arcpy.AddMessage("\nThe basin shapefile's unit type "+srunitname +"is not supported.”) sys.exit("Invalid linear units”)#Units must be meters or feet aoiArea =round(aoiArea,3) arcpy.AddMessage("\nArea of interest:"+str(aoiArea)+"square miles.”) #aoiArea=100 ##Enable a constant area size arcpy.AddMessage("\n***Area used for PMP analysis:"+str(aciArea)+"sqmi***”) return aoiArea ##Define dadLookup()function: ##The dadLookup()function determines the DAD value for the current storm ##and duration according to the basin area size.The DAD depth is interpolated ##linearly between the two nearest areal values within the DAD table. def dadLookup(stormLayer,duration,area):#dadLookup()accepts the current storm layer name (string),the current duration (string),and AOI area size (float) #arcpy.AddMessage('\t\tfunction dadLookup()called.”) durField ="H_”+duration #defines the name of the duration field (eg.,"H_06”for 6-hour) dadTable =dadGDB +"W'+stormLayer rows =arcpy.SearchCursor(dadTable) try: row =rows.next()#Sets DAD area x1 for basins that are smaller than the smallest DAD area. x1 =row.AREASQMI y1 =row.getValue(durField) FINAL DRAFT Page B-2 03/07/14 --Z- SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 XxFlag ="FALSE”#Sets DAD area x2 for basins that are larger than the largest DAD area. except RuntimeError:#return if duration does not exist in DAD table return ° #arcpy.AddMessage("Inlnitial x1 ="+str(x1)+"nyt ="+str(y1)) row =rows.next() i=0 while row:#iterates through the DAD table -assiging the bounding values directly above and below the basin area size it=1 if row.AREASQMI <area:x1 =row.AREASQMI y1 =row.getValue(durField) else: xFlag ="TRUE” x2 =row.AREASQMI y2 =row.getValue(durField) #arcpy.AddMessage("\nLoop "+str(i)+"inx1 ="+str(x1)+"\ny1 ="+str(y1)+"Inx2 ="+str(x2)) break row =rows.next() del row,rows,i if xFlag =="FALSE”: x2 =area #If x2 is equal to the basin area,this means that the largest DAD area is smaller than the basin and the resulting DAD value must be extrapolated. #arcpy AddMessage("x2 ="+str(x2))arcpy.AddMessage('In\tThe basin area size:"+str(area)+"sqmi is greater than the largest DAD area:"+str(x1)+"sqmi. DAD value is estimated by extrapolation.”)#1n this case,y (the DAD depth)is estimated by extrapolating the DAD area to the basin area size. y=xi/x2*y1 retum y #The extrapolated DAD depth (in inches)is retumed. #arcpy.AddMessage('\nArea ="+str(area)+"Inx1 ="+str(x1)+"\nx2 ="+str(x2)+"Iny1 ="+str(y1)+"Iny2 ="+str(y2)) X=area #If the basin area size is within the DAD table area range,the DAD depth is interpolated deltax =x2 -x1 #to determine the DAD value (y)at area (x)based on next lower (x1)and next higher (x2)areas. deltay =y2 -y1 diffx =x -x1 y =y1 +diffx *deltay /deltax return y #The interpolated DAD depth (in inches)is returned. ##Define updatePMP()function: ##This function updates the 'PMP_XX_'and 'STORM_XX fields of the PMP_Points ##feature class with the largest value from all analyzed storms stored in the ##pmpValues list. def updatePMP(pmpValues,stormID,duration):#Accepts four arguments:pmpValues -largest adjusted rainfall for current duration (float list);stormID -driver storm ID for each PMP value (text list);and duration (string) pmpfield ="PMP_”+duration stormfield ="STORM_”+duration gridRows =arcpy.UpdateCursor(outPath +"PMP.gdb\\PMP_Points”)#iterates through PMP_Points rows i=0 for row in gridRows: FINAL DRAFT Page B-3 03/07/14 SS an atsewn LASKA ENERGY ASUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEAt1.022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1 407-REP-030714 row.setValue(pmpfield,pmpValues[i])#Sets the PMP field value equal to the Max Adj. Rainfall value (if larger than existing value). row.setValue(stormfield,storm!D{i])#Sets the storm ID field to indicate the driving storm event gridRows.updateRow(row) it+=1 del row,gridRows,pmpfield,stormfield arcpy.AddMessage("In\t”+duration +"-hour PMP values update complete.\n') return def outputPMP(): global outPath pmpPoints =outPath +"PMP.gdb\\PMP_Points”#Location of 'PMP_Points'feature class which will provide data for output arcpy.AddMessage("\nBeginning PMP Raster Creation...”) for dur in durList:#This code creates a raster GRID from the current PMP point layer durField ="PMP_”+dur outLoc =outPath +"GRIDs.gdb\\pmp_”+dur arcpy.AddMessage("\n\tinput Path:"+pmpPoints) arcpy.AddMessage("\tOutput raster path:"+outPath) arcpy.AddMessage('\iField name:"+durField) con.FeatureToRaster(pmpPoints,durField,outLoc,"0.025”) arcpy.AddMessage("\tOutput raster created...”) del durField outFile =open(outPath +"Text_Output\\PMP_Distribution.txt','w) arcpy.AddMessage("\InPMP Raster Creation complete.”) HHH This section applies the metadata templates to the output GIS files #HAHH pointMetaLoc =home +"\lnput\\Metadata_Templates\\PMP_Points_Metadata_FGDC.xmi”#Location of 'PMP_Points'feature class metadata template rasMetaLoc =home +"\\Input\\Metadata_Templates\\PMP_Raster_Metadata_FGDC.xml”#Location of 'PMP_X'raster file metadata template arcpy.AddMessage("\nAdding metadata to output files...”) arcpy.AddMessage("\n\tPMP_Points feature class”) con.Metadatalmporter(pointMetaLoc,pmpPoints)#Applies metadata to 'PMP_Points'feature class for dur in durList:#Applies metadata to 'PMP_XX'GRIDs targetPath =outPath +"GRIDs.gdb\\pmp_”+dur arcpy.AddMessage("\tPMP..”+str(dur)+"feature class”) con.Metadatalmporter(rasMetaLoc,targetPath) arcpy.AddMessage("\nOutput metadata import complete.”) ##This portion of the code iterates through each storm feature class in the ##'Storm_Adj_Factors'geodatabase (evaluating the feature class only within ##the Local,Tropical,or general feature dataset).For each duration, ##at each grid point within the aoi basin,the transpositionality is ##confirmed.Then the DAD precip depth is retrieved and applied to the ##total adjustement factor to yield the total adjusted rainfall.This ##value is then sent to the updatePMP()function to update the 'PMP_Points' ##feature class. Ht Ht desc =arcpy.Describe(basin)#Check to ensure AOI input shape is a Polygon.If not -exit. FINAL DRAFT Page B-4 03/07/14 -yw A E ASUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO arerteeey Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 basinShape =desc.shapeType if desc.shapeType =="Polygon”: arcpy.AddMessage("\nBasin shape type:"+desc.shapeType) else: arcpy.AddMessage('\nBasin shape type:"+desc.shapeType) arcpy.AddMessage("\nError:Input shapefile must be a polygon!\n') sys.exit() createPMPfc()#Call the createPMPfc()function to create the PMP_Points feature class. env.workspace =adjFactGDB #the workspace environment is set to the 'Storm_Adj_Factors' file geodatabase aoiSQMI =round(getAOClarea(),2)#Calls the getAOlarea()function to assign area of AOI shapefile to 'aoiSQMI' for dur in durList: stormList =arcpy.ListFeatureClasses(","Point”,stormType)#List all the total adjustment factor feature classes within the storm type feature dataset.- arcpy.AddMessage("\n*****************s#80sseeatsanensesaneesenssneneateseeeee**\n Evaluating ij +dur +"hour duration...”) pmpList =[] driverList =[] gridRows =arcpy.SearchCursor(outPath +"PMP.gdb\\PMP_Points”) try: for row in gridRows: pmpList.append(0.0)#creates pmpList of empty float values for each grid point to store final PMP values driverList.append("STORM')#creates driverList of empty text values for each grid point to store final Driver Storm IDs del row,gridRows except UnboundLocalError: arcpy.AddMessage("n***Error:No data present within basin/AOI area.***\n') sys.exit() for storm in stormList: arcpy.AddMessage("In\tEvaluating storm:"+storm +"...”) dm.MakeFeatureLayer(storm,"stormLayer')#creates a feature layer for the current storm dm.SelectLayerByLocation("stormLayer',"HAVE_THEIR_CENTER_IN”,"vgLayer”)#examines only the grid points that lie within the AOI gridRows =arcpy.SearchCursor('stormLayer') pmpField ="PMP_”+dur i=0 try:. dadPrecip =round(dadLookup(storm,dur,aoiSQMI),3) arcpy.AddMessage('\tit”+dur +"-hour DAD value:"+str(dadPrecip)+chr(34)) except TypeError:#In no duration exists in the DAD table -move to the next storm arcpy.AddMessage("It*™*Duration "+str(dur)+"-hour'is not present for "+str(storm)+".***\n”) continue arcpy.AddMessage('It\tComparing "+storm +"adjusted rainfall values against current driver values...\n”) for row in gridRows: if row.TRANS ==1:#Only continue if grid point is transpositionable ('1'is transpostionable,'0' is not). try:#get total adj.factor if duration exists maxAdjRain =round(dadPrecip *row.TAF,2) if maxAdjRain >pmpListti}: pmpList[i]=maxAdjRain FINAL DRAFT Page B-5 03/07/14 -y A E ASUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO arerteyey Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 driverList[i]=storm except RuntimeError: arcpy.AddMessage('"\t\t *Warning*PMP value failed to set for row "+str(row.CNT)) break it=1 del row del storm,stormList,gridRows,dadPrecip updatePMP(pmpList,driverList,dur)#calls function to update "PMP Points”feature class del dur,pmpList arcpy.AddMessage("in'PMP_Points'Feature Class 'PMP_XX'fields update complete for all ""+stormType +"storms.”) outputPMP()#calls outputPMP()function Ht type ="General” durList =durlnput outPath =home +"\Output\\General\\” arcpy.AddMessage("\nRunning PMP analysis for storm type:"+type) pmpAnalysis(basin,type)#Calls the pmpAnalysis()function to calculate the General storm PMP arcpy.AddMessage("\nGeneral storm analysiscompleteAWileellalaelaleielaealaleeielaeelleaeieleelaleeillaelleelaleeeliaelleebalaellaeelalaelaeelalleiblaeilalaebalaelalaebeeelaeebeeaeidelaetlail | FINAL DRAFT Page B-6 03/07/14 Wy ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 Appendix C Short List Storm Analysis Data Used for PMP Development FINAL DRAFT 03/07/14 -y SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. Report 14-07-REP -Appendix C v1.0 Susitna-Watana Hydroelectric Project Site-Specific Probable Maximum Precipitation Study Appendix C -Short List Storm Analyses FINAL DRAFT AEA11-022 Prepared for:Prepared by: Alaska Energy Authority Applied Weather Associates, 813 West Northern Lights Blvd.LLC for MWH Anchorage,AK 99503 'PO Box 175 Monument,CO 80132 May 2014 (=ALASKA 13-1407-TM-031414 li ENERGY AUTHORITY Disclaimer This document was preparedfor the exclusive use ofAEA and MWH as part of the engineering studies for the Susitna-Watana Hydroelectric Project,FERC Project No.14241,and contains information from MWH which may be confidential or proprietary.Any unauthorized use ofthe information contained herein is strictly prohibited and MWH shall not be liablefor any use outside the intended and approved purpose. Notice This report was prepared by Applied Weather Associates,LLC (AWA).The results and conclusions in this report are based upon best professional judgment using currently available data.Therefore,neither AWA nor any person acting on behalf of AWA can:(a)make any warranty,expressed or implied,regardingfuture use of any information or method in this report,or (b)assume any future liability regarding use of any information or method contained in this report. oe ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1 407-REP-031414 APPENDIX C APPENDIX C: SHORT STORM LIST STORM ANALYSES Storm files were made for 13 SPAS DAD zones which comprised the short storm list (Table C.1). Applied Weather Associates (AWA)analyzed each of these storms to determine the storm representative SST for in-place maximization using the updated SST climatologies.Each storm was then transpositioned and adjusted using the OTF process as description in Section 7 and 8 of the report.The data used to analyze and develop the adjusted DAD table for each of these storms is included in this appendix so that a user is able to understand how each of the storms was adjusted and allow for the process to replicated/reproduced if required. Table C.1.Alaska Short Storm List .Total Name ST Lat Lon |¥Year|Mon |Day|Rainfall Precipitation Source DENALI NP AK 63.038 -150471 1955 8 22 13.75.SPAS 1272 Zone 1 MT SPURR AK 61346 -152329 1958 7 25 6.62 SPAS 1273 Zone 1 LITTLESUSITINA AK 61.854 -149229 1959 8 18 13.05 SPAS 1271 Zone 1 DENALI NP AK 62.846 -150513 1967 8 2 12.45 SPAS 1270 Zone 2 FAIRBANKS AK 65521 -147329 1967 8 2 12.45 SPAS 1270 Zone 1 SUTTON AK 6190 -148.863 1971 8 5 1139 SPAS 1269 Zone 1 BLACK RAPIDS AK 63471 -145.479 1971 §3 12.17 SPAS 1269 Zone 2 MT GEIST AK 63.638 -146971 1980 7 24 5.26 SPAS 1268 Zone 2 DENALI NP AK 62.954 -150079 1980 7 24 733 SPAS 1268 Zone 1 DENALI NP AK 62.829 -151.138 1986 10 §11.01 SPAS 1267 Zone 1 SEWARD AK 60.113 -149.513 1986 =10 §20.80 SPAS 1267 Zone 2 BLACK RAPIDS AK.63465 -145.685 2006 =§&17 16.12 SPAS 1303 Zone 1 OLD TYONEK AK 61260 -151.860 2012 9 15 15.91 SPAS 1256 Zone1 FINAL DRAFT Page C-1 03/14/14 --Z- SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-031414 APPENDIX C Denali NP,AK,SPAS 1272 Zone 1 August 22,1955 SPAS 1272 Denali NP,DAD Ze Ste!B/21-29/1955 Storm Adjustment for Susitna-WatanaWAAnalysisDate:(2/19/2013 Temporal Transposition Date 18Aug Lat Long Moisture Inflow Direction:SSW 700 miles Storm center location 63.04N 150.47W 'Basia Elevation 3,650 feet Storm Rep SST location 53.00N 152.00 W Storm Elevation 7,500 feet ransposition SST location NA NA Storm Duration 24 hours Basin tocation 62.84N 14737W ffective Barrier Height 1,483 feet The storm representative SSTis §4.0F with total precipitable water above sea level of 1.02 inches. The in-place maximum SSTis §7.0F with total precipitable water above sea level of 1.19 inches. The transpositioned maximum SSTis NA with total precipitable water above sea level of 444 inches. The in-place stonn elevationis 7,500 which subtracts 0.67 inches of precipitable water at S4.0F The in-place storm elevation is 7,500 which subtracts 0.76 inches of precipitable waterat 57.0F The transposition storm elevation at 3,650 which subtracts x inches of precipitable waterat NA The moisture inflow barrier heightis 1,483 which subtracts xx inches ofprecipitable water at NA The in-place maximization factoris 1.23 j-sotes:Storm representative SST value was based oa SST vaines for The transposition elevation factoris"#VALUE!PAseet 21-22,1955 along HYSPLIT trajectory data.Values wereThebarrieradjustmentfactoris#VALUE!eaegetsanwar erate Gd not vary more than.2 1 The total adjustment factoris "MV ALUE! arved Storm Depth-Area-DurationHours|t2 Hours |Hours |36 Hours |48Hours 72 Hours |96 Hours |120 Hours!144 Hours ;168 Hours 10 sq miles i3 22 2.8 3.6 6.1 79 9.7 12.2 13.1 13.4 100 sq miles!1.3 2.2.8 38 6.0 7.7 95 21 129 13.1 200 sq miles 12 2.0 2.7 3.4 $8 74 9.2 11.7 12.4 12.7 500 sqmiles!1.2 19 2.6 32 55 cAI 8.7 411 11.8 12.1 1000 sq miles 11 13 2 3.$2 6.7 79 10.4 112 11.4 2000 sqmiles!3.0 7 23 238 4.7 62 15 98 103 10.5 $000 sq miles 09 is 1s 2.4 4.0 48 60 rel 79 8&7 10000 sq miles 0.8 12 17 2.0 34 42 §.1 $8 6.7 72 20000 sq miles 0.6 0.9 13 15 26 =!34 41 48 5.4 5.7 10 sq miles:HVALUE!|HVALTE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!|AVALUE!|#VALUE!i #VALUE!|#VALUE!#VALUE!|#VALUE!100 sq miles;#VALUE!|HVALTE!|#VALUE!|#VALCE!|#VALUE!|AVALLE!|AVALUE!|#VALUE!;#VALUE!|VALUE!200 sq miles!VALUE!|HVALUE!#VALUE!|VALUE![#VALUE!!#VALUE!|@VALUE!|4VALUE!!®VALUE!|4VALUE!500 sq miles;HVALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!)#VALUE!|#VALUE!;#VALUE!|#VALUE!|SVALUE!|#VALUE![|#VALUE!1000 sq miles)VALUE!|#VALUE!/#VALUE!|#VALLE!|#VALUE!!4VALUE!|#VALUE!|AVALTE![#VALUE!|#VALUE!2000 sq miles;HVALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!)#VALUE!|VALUE!|#VALTE!|#VALUE![VALUE!5000 sq miles:#VALUE!|#VALUE!#VALUE![®VALUE!|#VALUE!:#VALUE!|#VALUE![#VALUE!)#VALUE![#VALUE!10000 sq miles!HVALUE!|#VALUE!|VALUE!VALUE![#VALUE!!HVALUE!!#VALUE!|MVALUE!|#VALUE![#VALUE!20000 sq miles:VALUE!|VALUE!#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!:#VALUE!!#VALUE!|HVALUE!)VALUE![#VALUE! [Stonn or Storm Center Name SPAS 1272 Denali NP,DAD Zone 1 Storm Date(s)$21.29 1955 Storm Type Atmospheric River Storm Location 63.04N 15047 W Storm Center Elevation 7500 Precipitation Total &Duration 13.75 imches in 168 hours -DAD Zone 1 Storm Representative SST MOF Storm Representative SST Location $3.00N__152.00 W 15-AugbnotaceMaximumSSTST.0F 37 Moisture Inflow Vector SSW Z 700 in-place Maximi Factor 1.23 [Temporal Transposition (Date)15-Aug Transposition SST Location NA NA Transposition Maximum SST NA Transposition Adjustment Factor VALUE! LAverage Basin Elevation 3,650 [Highest ElevationinBasin 13,131 jow Barrier Height 7883levationAdjentFactorVALUE!Front Ag Factor VALUE! FINAL DRAFT Page C-2 03/14/14 ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-031414 APPENDIX C SPAS 1272 Cordova,AK Storm Analysis August 21 -29,1955 180°«6178"W O176"WOTT4°;W OT72*WOTTO°W SCTE S°W OTEB"WOIGATWOT82"WOTGO"W OIEB°WIS8"WO1S4°WO1S2°WOISO"W148"WOLAO"WO144°WOTA2*WOT40"W O18 W11411[nf n n 1 1 po fF J L.1 1.n in 1 iM ire}Storm Center Bi nd.\-145.6,|60.7 he on eee oe eeu weirsetcateteWNAUOeRcAaERSONSSeleRNREEgeldOEPale. T q q J qT Uy qT UW W qT T U T lJ i J W t T180°178°WOTTG'WOTT4*WOIT2"°WOCTTO"WS"W OTEE"WOTEAWOE2"W OI?WCd1SB"WeOOIEE'W O1E4"WO1S2°WOCTSO*WTAB*WOTAETWO144°WOT42"WO140*WOOU138°W. Hysplit @ Surface @ 850mb ©700mb Q a75 975 1,850 Storm 1272 -Aug.21 (1000 UTC)-Aug.28 (0900 UTC),1955 MAXIMUM AVERAGE DEPTH OF PRECIPITATION (INCHES) Duration (hours) Area {mi'}1 6 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 144 168 Total 0.2 0.71 1.32 2.18 2.94 3.63 6.27 8.14 9.92 12.48 13.42 13.67 13.75 1 0.66 1.29 2.15 2.83 3.55 6.09 7.92 9.68 12.16 13.12 13.35 13.43 10 0.66 1.29 2.15 2.83 3.55 6.09 7.92 9.68 12.16 13.12 13.35 13.43 25 0.66 4.29 2.15 2.83 3.55 6.09 7.92 9.68 12.16 13.12 13.35 13.43 50 0.66 4.29 2.14 2.83 3.55 6.09 7.92 9.68 12.16 13.12 13.35 13.43 100 0.66 4.27 2.1 2.82 3.46 §.95 TT 9.5 12.06 12.85 13.14 13.25 150 0.66 4.25 2.07 2.78 3.44 59 7.67 9.39 11.86 12.71 12.94 13.01 200 0.66 1.24 2.04 2.74 3.35 5.76 7.44 9.19 41.7 12.44 12.73 12.86 300 0.65 1.21 2 2.69 3.32 5.68 7.39 9.02 11.45 42.25 12.49 12.57 400 0.64 1.19 1.94 2.65 3.22 5.6 7.15 8.66 11.23 11.95 12.22 12.34 500 0.63 1.18 4.92 2.61 3.2 6.51 7.11 8.65 11.07 11.83 12.07 12.15 1,000 0.6 1.14 4.82 2.43 3.05 6.15 6.74 7.86 10.42 11.15 41.36 41.42 2,000 0.58 1.04 1.69 2.29 2.82 4.73 6.18 7.45 9.51 10.29 10.48 10.56 5,000 0.58 0.92 1.48 1.93 2.37 4.04 4.84 6.03 7.14 7.85 8.72 8.83 10,000 0.57 0.79 41.23 1.66 1.95 3.4 4.23 §.05 5.62 6.65 7.22 7.31 20,000 0.52 0.59 0.92 13 15 2.57 3.41 4.07 48 54 §71 577 50,000 0.23 0.35 0.57 0.68 0.8 1.59 2.1 2.54 3.17 3.49 3.82 3.94 100,000 0.14 0.24 0.39 0.49 0.56 0.89 1.15 1.41 2.04 2.44 2.56 2.60 116,206 0.05 0.21 0.34 0.42 0.49 0.75 1 4.37 1.62 1.87 1.95 1.98 FINAL DRAFT Page C-3 03/14/14 -y- , ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-031414 APPENDIX C SPAS #1256 DAD Curve s Zone 1 Sep 15-22,2013 -e-t-hour ----6-hour +12-hour sess 2a hour -+-%-hour -¥-48-hour ome T2-HOUL am 96-hour -e-120-hour mtn $44-hour jem 168-hour OQ Tote!storm (168-hour) 1,000,000 400,000 - 10,000 + € - i 1,000 7 - 100 7 - 10 4 1 0 SPAS 1272 Storm Center Mass Curve Zone 1 August 21 (1000UTC)to August 29 (900UTC),1955 Lat:63.0375 Lon:-160.470833333333 ome {ncremental 441.2 7]==Accumulated -12 1.0 7 E +10f 508-7 5g=$-8 8aa30.6 7 85|.85z 3 8£04 -< +4 0.24 ls 0.0 -Lg 50 100 150 Index Hour FINAL DRAFT Page C-4 03/14/14 -y A E ASUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO see NEY NEN 022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-031414 APPENDIX C seonq N HS6'0Nka1Mies 0 50 100 200 as2tow 450°OW 448'OW 146°0W s4slow saztow Total Storm (192-hour)Precipitation (inches) August 21-28,1955 SPAS #1272 Precipitation (inches) Bg 0.12-0.50[]301-3.50[j6o1-650 [FJ 1201-1400 ©Daily Gi 0.51 -1.00 [)3.51-4.00 [J]651-7.00 [0]14.01-16.00 =Hourty El 1.01 -1.50 [3]4.01-4.50 [J 7.01-8.00 []1601-1800 ©Hourly Est EJ 1.51 -2.00 EJ 4.51-5.00 Fj s.o1-9.00 (_]18.01-20.00 =Hourly Est Pseudo (1)2.01 -2.50 EJ 5.01 -5.50 EJ 9.01-10.00 []2001-2200 ©Supplemental [_]2.51 -3.00 [J 5.51-6.00 J 10.01 -12.00 FINAL DRAFT Page C-5 03/14/14 ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-031414 APPENDIX C Mt.Spurr,AK,SPAS 1273 Zone 1 July 25,1958 Storm Adjustment for Susitna-Watana Moisture Inflow Direction SSE @ 830 miles. Storm Center Location Basin Average Elevation NA feet Storm Rep SST Location Storm Center Elevation 9,200 feet [Tramsposition SST Location Storm Amslvsis Duration "4 hours Basin Location *+fiective Barrier Height NVA feet The storm representative SSTis $6.0 F with total precipitable water above sea level of 131 inches. The in-place maximum SSTis 59.0 F with total precipitable water above sea level of 131 inches. The transpositioned maximum SST is NA with total precipitable water above sea level of 4.08 -inches.The in-place storm elevationis 200 feet which subtracts 0.83 inches of precipitablewaterat S6.0FThei-plece stom elevationis 9,200 feet which subtracts 0.97 inches ofprecipitable water at S9.0F The transposition storm elevation at NA feet which subtracts NA inches ofprecipitable water at NA The moisture inflow barrier height is N/A feet which subtracts NA inches of precipitable water at NA The m-piace maximization factor is 21 Notes:Storm representative SST value was based on SST valuesThetranspositionfactoris”#VALUE!for Juty 26.August 2 slong the surface HYSPLIT trajectory data.The elevation barrier adjustment factor is”#VALUE![\'atues were selected in region where temperaturedidnotvarymorethena1-degree over a large area and was as closest to theThetotaladjustmentfactoris”#VALTE!stor center. 192 Hours :216 Hours |240. 168 Hours 288 HoursRVALUE!S|#VALUE! #VALLE!?TRVALUE! VALLE!2]MVALUES HVALLE!2)EVALUES SVALLE!1]#VALUE!sq mili SVALUE!1 MVALUE!2000 sq miles #V ALLE!VALUE![#VALUE!|AVALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE![AVALUE![#VALUE!|EVALUE![#VALUE!|AVALUE!!|WVALUE!$000 sq miles!#VALUE!#VALUE![#VALUE!|#VALUE!|VALUE!|VALLE![#VALUE![|#VALUE![HVALUE![¥VALUE![VALLE!{|WVALUE!10000 sq miles}#VALUE!|#VALUE![|#VALUE!|#VALUE!|SVALUE!|#VALUE![#VALUE![#VALTE!|VALUE!|#VALUE![#VALUE!t#VALLE!20000 sq miles!#VALUE!#VVALUE!|#VALUE!|AVALUES |#VALUE!|2VALUE!#VALUE!|MWALUE!|#VALUE![#VALUE!|#VALUE!|EVALUE!/EVALUE!SEVALUE![2V ALUE!/HVALUE! StormorStorm Center Name SPAS 1273-AK Storm 1 and 2,Zone1 July 25 -August 5,1958 Series of low pressure systems G135N 15233.W Stoon Center Elevation 9,200 Precipitation Total&Duration (10 sq mi)6.82 inches at 288 hours 36.0F SO00N 155.00 W 59.0F SSE @ 830 21 {Temporal Transposition (Date 15-Aug Transposition SST Location NA Transposition Maximum SST NA Transposition Adjustment Factor "VALUE! NA NA NA "VALUE! "VALUE! FINAL DRAFT Page C-6 03/14/14 -y A E ASUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO saan ee NEATO22 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-031414 APPENDIX C SPAS 1273 South-central AK Storm Analysis July 26 -August 2,1958 Tow aw tow tw 162°W 260'w 1n8w Bew Baw Baw 150°We 148°W now mew maw 140°W -io ere or)aa°rks 'eer: 'bef éi.wR gat r OP Si IED Pie Hy split @ Sudace @ 850mb @ 700mb °x0 70 1440 Storm 1273 -Jul.25 (1000 UTC)-Aug.6 (0900 UTC),1958 MAXIMUM AVERAGE DEPTH OF PRECIPITATION (INCHES) Duration (hours) Area (mi?)41 6 12 18 24 48 72 36 120 144 168 192 216 240 264 288 Total 0.2 0.45 1.84 241 2.81 2.81 3.23 3.44 4.07 §.02 54 6.18 6.28 6.29 6.52 6.62 6.62 6.62 1 0.45 1.81 2.35 27 27 3.12 3.34 3.97 487 $.27 6.02 6.12 6.13 6.35 6.46 6.46 646 10 0.45 1.81 2.35 27 27 3.12 3.34 3.97 487 §.27 6.02 6.12 6.13 6.35 6.46 6.46 6.46 25 0.45 1.81 2.35 27 27 3.12 3.34 3.97 487 §.27 6.02 6.12 6.13 6.35 6.46 6.46 6.46 50 0.44 1.8 2.35 27 27 3.12 3.26 3.88 4.75 §.16 §.89 5.98 5.99 6.21 6.46 6.46 6.46 100 0.43 177 2.35 27 27 3.12 3.16 3.74 4.62 4.96 §.67 $77 §.78 §.97 6.35 6.42 6.42 150 0.43 1.74 2.34 27 27 3.12 3.44 3.61 451 4.82 §.51 5.61 §.61 5.74 6.3 6.34 6.34 200 0.42 1.73 2.33 27 27 3.11 3.12 3.57 4.42 474 54 §.45 65 $7 6.21 6.26 6.26 300 0.41 171 23 2.68 2.69 3.08 3.09 3.43 4.25 458 §.21 §.29 5.43 §.52 6.04 6.15 6.15 400 0.41 1.69 2.27 2.66 2.66 3.05 3.06 3.38 414 444 5.05 §2 62 §.46 603 6.05 6.05 500 0.4 1.67 2.22 2.63 2.64 3 3.03 3.28 4.03 431 49 5.14 5.17 §.38 5.88 5.98 5.98 1,000 0.38 1.6 2.18 2.55 2.55 291 2.92 3.08 3.68 3.85 4.42 4.84 4.94 §.22 5.68 §.73 §.73 2,000 0.34 1.51 2.08 2.42 2.43 2.78 28 2.91 3.32 3.62 4.49 4.52 4.67 4.86 5.35 5.45 §.45 5,000 9.31 33 -83 2.2.11 241 2.49 27 3 3.27 .73 4.4.11 447 4.89 4.89 4.89 10,000 0.26 6 57 1 182 2 08 23 2.49 63 2.86 2 69 404 437 4.38 438 20,000 02 34 37 :16 83 2.02 2.16 7 26 2 4 3.53 .3.87 87 50,000 4 54 1 VAT 41 1.59 82 96 2.21 4G 62 29 3.1 10 100,000 0 7 .0.6 0.67 0.98 1.25 44 5 Ri 94 2.06 15 23 3 2.44 44 132,242 .0:4 4 0.5'0 64 081 1.02 26 43 58 74 -86 9 1.99 0:2.09 09 FINAL DRAFT Page C-7 03/14/14 -y A E ASUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO saan ee ey EAT LoD? Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-031414 APPENDIX C SPAS #1273 DAD Curve s Zone 1 (both storms) July 25-Aug 6,1958 1,000,000 10,000 + 1,000 +Area(mF)100+Q Total storm (240-hour) 104---@---o--o-o-OSPAS 1273 Storm Center Mass Curve:Zone 1 July 25 (1000 UTC)-August 6 (0900 UTC),1958 Lat:61.3458 Lon:-152.3292 GHB Incremental 662 4.0 4 fd°aao2IncrementalPrecipitation(inches)AccumulatedPrecipitation(inches)°we0.0 4 50 100 150 200 250 Index Hour FINAL DRAFT Page C-8 03/14/14 --Z- SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA11-022 13-1407-REP-031414 APPENDIX C son fee TE EF:68 er,=wr rs wat si eeeee?dsde Te 3 fe ee i A i ie ett 66°ONT SB YS 64°0'N4 a 62°O'N-¥f 6O°O'N-7,# = 58°ON4 -538°0'N LJ J qT ' 182°0'W 150°O'W 148°OW 146°0'W 1 J144°0'W 142°0W Total 288-hours Precipitation (inches) SPAS #1273 July 25 1000 UTC -August 6 0900 UTC,1958 Precipitation (inches) El 0.51-1.00[[]5.01-6.00 [[}10.01 -12.00 EJ 20.01-22.00 ©Daity El 1.01 -2.00 [}6.01-7.00 [[]12.01 -14.00 EJ 22.01-24.00 =Hourly EJ 2.01 -3.00 [FJ 7.01-8.00 fF]14.01 -16.00 [7]24.01-26.00 ©Hourly Est. (2)3.01 -4.00 [FJ 8.01-9.00 [By 16.01 -18.00 []26.01 -28.00 ©Supplemental (7)4.01 -5.00 iJ 9.01 -10.00 BJ 18.01 -20.00 [_]28.01 -30.00 [[]DAD Zones METSTAT,Ine.04/24/2013 FINAL DRAFT Page C-9 03/14/14 -z- SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA11-022 13-1407-REP-031414 APPENDIX C Little Susitna,AK,SPAS 1271 Zone 1 August 18,1959 Store Name:Little Susitma-SPAS 1271 Zone8/18-26/1959 Storm Adjustment for Susitna-Watana23/28/2013 Temporal Transposition Date 15.Aug Lat Long Moisture Inflow Direction:SSW @ 700 =miles Storm center location GI8SN 149.23 W Basin Elevation NA feet Stora Rep SST location 52.00N 154.00 W)Storm Elevation 5,150 feet |Transposition SST location NA NA Storm Duration 24 hours 'Basin location 42.76N 74.12 W Effective Barrier Height NA feet The stonn representative SSTis 52.0F with total precipitable water above sea level of 0.92 inches. The in-place maximum SSTis 56.0 F with total precipitable water above sea level of 1.13 inches. The transpositioned maumum SSTis NA with total precipitable water above sea level of 444 inches. The in-place storm elevationis 5,150 which subtracts 0.48 inches ofprecipitable water at $2.0F The in-place storm elevationis 5,150 which subtracts 0.56 inches of precipitable water at S6.0F The transposition storm elevationat NA which subtracts xx inches of precipitable water at NA The moisture inflow barrier heightis NA which subtracts x inches of precipitable water at NA The in-place maximization factor is 1.30 DNotes:Storm representative SST Value was basedon SST values forThetranspositionelevationfactoris"#'ALUE!PAoeeet21-22,1959 alongthe HYSPLIT trxectory data ValuesThebarrieradjustmentfactoris"FVALUE! aepree overalsearca ned taepotuneie r throughout the period. The total adjustment factor is #VALUE! 36Hours j 48 Hours |72 Hours |96 Hours |120 Hours}144 Hours |168 Hours!192 Hours8.8 9.6 103 10.5 113 11.5 12.7 12.7 83 9.0 9.8 10.0 10.8 10.9 122 123 77 8.4 93 9.4 10.1 10.4 114 118 6.4 76 84 8.6 9.0 9.6 10.6 10.8 1000 sq miles:2.5 33 §.1 63 7.0 LA 19 83 89 9.7 99 2000 sq miles 2.0 29 4.4 §2 6.0 68 659 72 79 88 8&9 3000 sq miles 15 2.0 33 39 46 §2 §3 §.7 6.1 72 72 10000 sq miles;3.13 is 29 31 39 40 43 44 5.8 89 20000 sq miles 0.6 1.0 1.6 2.1 2.5 2.8 28 2.5 38 [44 1 44 Hours |12 Hours |24Hours |36 Hours j 48 Hours |72 Hours |96 Hours |120 Hours}144 Hours |168 Hours:192 Hours10sqmiles{HVALLE!|#VALLE!|H#VALUE!|)VALUE!|AVALUE!:#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE![#VALUE![#VALUE!!HVALTE!100 sq miles!HVALUE!|HVALUE!|WVALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!|¥VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!!#VALTE!200 sq miles}#VALUE!|HVALUE!:VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!!4VALUE!:#VALUE!)#VALUE!)#VALUE![#VALUE!;#VALUE!$00 sq miles!HVALUE!|HVALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!|AVALUE!:#VALUE!:#VALUE!)VALUE!)#VALUE!|#WALUE!!#VALUF!1000 sq miles:#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!|AVALUE!;#VALUE!:#VALUE!|#VALUE!)VALUE!|#VALUE!!#VALTE! 2000 sq miles!HVALUE!|VALUE!:#VALUE!|#VALLE!|4VALUE!:4VALUE!!#VALUE!|#VALLE!!VALUE![#VALUE!;#VALUE!5000 sq miles!HVALUE!|#VALUE!/VALUE!#VALUE!|#VALUE!!#VALUE!|#VALUE!|VALUE!)#VALUE![#VALUE!:#VALUE!10000 sq miles;HVALUE!|VALUE!#VALUE!)#VALUE!|#VALUE!;#VALUE!|#VALUE!/#VALUE!VALUE!|#VALUE!!#VALTE! 20000 sq miles:VALUE!!#VALUE!#VALUE!)#VALUE!|#VALUE!!#VALUE!)#VALUES:AVALUE!!#4VALUE![#VALUE!!#VALUE! [Storm or Storm Center Name Lirle Susima-SPAS 1271 Zone 1 [Storm Date(s)8:18.26 1959 Storm Type Series of Low Pressure Systems and Associated Storms Storm Location 6185 N 149.23 W Stonn Center Elevation 5150 Precipitation Total&Duration 13.06 inches in 192 hours Storm Rep ive SST ROOF iS-Aug -_15-Sep|Storm Rep ive SST Location ROON 154.00 W.56 55.5 In-place Maxi SST 56.0F [Moisture inflow Vector SSW Z@ 700 [In-place Maxims Factor 130 Temporal Transposition (Date)IS-Ang Transposition SST Location NA NA [Transposition Maxt SST NATranspositionAdjustmentFactorsVALUE! Average Basin Elevation XA [Highest Elevation in Basin NA inflow Barrier Height NAElevationAdjustmentFactorZNALUE!Total Adjustment Factor =VALUE! FINAL DRAFT Page C-10 03/14/14 ---Z- SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA11-022 13-1407-REP-031414 APPENDIX C SPAS 1271 Gateway,AK Storm Analysis August 18 -26,1955 17o"w traew raw T70°w teow 100"w tearw 102"toorw 1sa"w 156"w 154"W hiarthed 150°W 148°W O48 saw 'aztw 140°wW 138°w $36°W ta4'wLnhndenm oul Raa -Reo aEnad eeSs:3oe'apne! ong iea aeox.a@'N aewie:x or SHEETcon]4 apa .peeBtByseeea 567N-4 SONI -'oo aeREjl,oh *poe i.oo LE padi=}=23 esSNEepaeESeeetaleSOFe @2°N44 ero al f=.Stcasefe: ony wT :eo -&FLeeeee'N-OT "aan T -e y t T tTOWTTAWTTZIWTTOTWS08TWOCWOGEZOWTBSTTSOSEWTSWTECBTWROTteatAWaotBast120'Ww 134tw Hysplit Mies @ Surface ©850mb @ 700mb °"5 990 1,980 Storm 1274 -Aug.18 (1000 UTC)-Aug.26 (0900 UTC),1959 MAXIMUM AVERAGE DEPTH OF PRECIPITATION (INCHES) Duration (hours) Area {mi”}1 3 6.12 18 24 36 48 72 96 120 144 168 192 Total 0.2 1.19 2.44 3.84 5.33 67 7A1 9.04 9.86 10.59 10.74 11.58 11.86 43.03 43.06 13.06 1 1.17 2.38 3.76 5.19 6.51 7.23 6.78 9.61 10.29 10.47 11.25 11.53 42.65 12.71 12.71 10 1.17 2.38 3.76 §.19 6.51 7.23 8.78 9.61 10.29 10.47 41.25 11.53 12.65 12.71 12.71 25 1.15 2.37 3.73 §.08 6.51 7.2 8.78 9.59 10.29 10.47 11.25 41.53 12.65 12.71 12.71 50 1.12 2.31 3.63 4.94 6.34 7.03 8.57 94 10.14 10.28 11.13 41.44 12.59 12.62 12.62 100 1.07 2.21 3.47 4.75 6.11 6.78 8.27 9.03 9.81 9.95 10.79 10.9 12.24 12.27 12.27 150 1.03 2.13 3.35 4.59 §.92 6.56 7.99 8.74 95 9.67 10.17 10.4 114.92 11.96 11.96 200 4 2.06 3.23 4.37 5.73 6.35 7.69 8.42 9.29 9.41 10.14 10,38 11.43 11.76 11.76 300 0.96 1.95 3.08 4.13 5.46 5.98 [Z}8.04 6.93 9.1 9.88 10.27 11.26 11.38 11.38 400 0.91 1.87 2.95 3.9 5.23 5.88 7.14 7.93 6.64 8.81 9.32 9.59 11.04 11.07 11.07 500 0.88 18 2.51 3.83 49 §.65 64 76 8.4 8.56 8.95 9.55 10.55 10.82 10.82 1,000 0.79 1.63 2.45 3.32 448 6.13 6.29 6.97 7.66 7.85 8.26 8.91 9.73 9.94 9.94 2,000 0.67 1.39 4.95 2.88 39 444 §.23 6.04 6.75 6.91 7.24 7.87 8.79 8.94 8.94 5,000 0.38 0.97 1.46 1.98 2.93 3.26 3.9 4.62 5.15 §.34 5.68 6.06 7.18 721 721 10,000 0.26 0.64 1.05 1.32 1.69 4.89 2.91 31 3.9 4.03 4.32 4.39 58 §9 §.90 20,000 0.17 0.37 0.62 0.96 1.32 1.62 2.06 247 2.47 2.48 2.48 3.83 4.37 4.44 444 50,000 0.08 0.22 0.38 0.7 0.87 0.97 1.08 1.22 1.42 1.48 1.69 2.54 3.17 3.18 3.18 100,000 06 0.11 0.22 0.4 0.54 0.57 0.68 0.81 0.94 1.01 1.24 181 2.17 2.19 2.19 132,207 0.04 01 0.19 0.33 0.44 0.52 0.61 0.74 0.85 0.91 1.04 145 1.67 1.69 1.69 FINAL DRAFT Page C-11 03/14/14 yw A ENERGY Au:SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO cme ON EAI1022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-031414 APPENDIX C SPAS #1271 DAD Curves Zone 1 Aug 18-26,1959 1,000,000 100,000 - 10,000 £ & 7 1,000 4& 100 4 --- 10 4 ---- 1 SPAS 1271 Storm Center Mass Curve Zone1 Aug.18 (1000 UTC)-Aug.26 (0900 UTC),1959 Lat:61.8542 Lom -149.2292 +14 2a =13.08"inAccumulatedPrecipitation(inches)IncrementalPrecipitation(inches)-]°wn0.0 so 100 150 Index Hour FINAL DRAFT Page C-12 03/14/14 Ze SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-031414 APPENDIX C 148°0'W 144°O'W 68°NP ae en OF FareSpeeREO Ars a ™ &; 66°0'N- 64°oNn-tl ©. 62°ON-T es. SOON 4:a neOTye,See):© \wre se'oN-pe +58°ON ReeMiles050100200 t qT q 'Lj150°0W 148°0'W 146°0 W 144°0W 142°0W Total 192-hour Precipitaiton (inches) 08/18/1959 -08/25/1959 Precipitation (inches) El 0.12 -0.50 EJ 3.01 -3.50Zi 7.01 -8.00 El 0.51 -1.00 EJ 3.51 -4.00 EJ 8.01 -10.00 (1.01 -1.50 [7]4.01 -4.50 [_]10.01 -12.00 {[]1.51 -2.00 [7]4.51 -5.00 [_]12.01 -14.00 [_]2.01-2.50 Ey 5.01 -6.00 ££]2.51 -3.00 Eq 6.01 -7.00 ooeenpaosre®@SPAS #1271 Daily Hourly Hourly Est. Hourly Est.Pseudo Supplemental Supplemental Est. METS TAT.inc.03/28/2013 FINAL DRAFT Page C-13 03/14/14 -y SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-031414 APPENDIX C Denali NP,AK,SPAS 1270 Zone 2 August 2,1967 peer 'SPAS 1270-Fairbanks-DAD ZongtormDate:9/2.17/1967 Storm Adjustment for Susitna-Watana|JAWA Analysis Date:(2/4/2013 Temporal Transposition Date 15-Aug .Lat Long Moisture Inflow Direction:SSE@910 miles Storms ceater location 6284N 15051 WV in Elevation 3,650 feet Storm Rep SST location 45.00N 149.00 W Storm Elevation 5,080 feet ransposition SST location NA NA Storm Duration 34 hours asin location 62.84N 147.37 WV ffective Barrier Height 1,483 feet The storm representative SSTis 61.0 F with total precipitable water above sea level of 145 inches. The in-place maximum SSTis 62.$F with total precipitable water above sea level of 156 inches. The transpositioned maximum SSTis NA with total precipitable water above sea level of . 444 inches. The in-place storm elevationis §,080 which subtracts 0.66 inches ofprecipitable water at 6L0F The in-place stom elevationis §,080 which subtracts 0.70 inches of precipitable waterat 625F The transposition storm elevation at 3,650 which subtracts x inches of precipitable water at NA The moisture inflow barrier heightis 1,483 which subtracts x inches ofprecipitable water at NA The in-place maximization factoris 1.09 Notes:Storm representative SST valve was basadonSST valves forThetranspositionelevationfectoris”#VALUE!ioe 7ST gone tee eetaoe EYSPLTTtevectory danThebarzieradjustmentfactoris"#VALUE!Shana 1-dogres over a lnoe avo and had eanperarue record , hroughout the period. The total adjustment factoris #VALUE! jeserved Storm Depeh-AreaDuration6Hours|12 Hours |24 Hours |48Hours |72 Hours |96 Hours |120 Hours!144 Hours!168 Hours |192 Hours:216Hours}240 Hours 10sqmiles;1.6 22 29 45 6.4 16 85 95 10.6 114 12.0 hl 100 sq miles 1.6 21 2.8 44 6.2 14 82 9.1 10.2 11.0 11.6 11.8 200 sqmiles|1.5 2.0 2.7 43 61 72 8.0 LS)10.0 10.7 114 11s 500 sqmiles|1.4 19 2.5 49 8.7 6.6 18 83 93 10.1 10.5 10.8 1000 sq miles 13 18 2.4 3.8 §3 63 7.0 78 £8 9.4 99 10.1 2000 sqmiles|1.2 16 22 35 49 5.8 6.4 72 8.0 &6 91 93 5000 sq miles}0.9 13 18 29 38 47 52 8.7 65 70 75 16 10000 sqmiles;0.7 1.0 15 24 3.0 3.8 42 46 §2 5.4 6.0 61 20000 sqmiles!0.8 0.7 1.0 1.7 22 2.7 3.1 3.4 3.8 4.1 44 44 6Hours |12 Hours |24Hours!48 Hours |72 Hours |96 Hours |120 Hours!144 Hours!168 Hours |192 Hours:2i6 Hours |240 Hours10sqmiles!#VALUE![HVALUE!|AVALUE!(@VALUE!1 #VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!|AVALUE!|VALUE![HVALUE!!#VALUE!VALUE!100 sq miles!#VALUE!|#VALUE![#VALUE!!#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!|XVALUE!:#VALUE!|#VALUE![SVALUE!!#VALUE!{|#VALUE!200 sq miles!#VALUE!|VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!|XVALUE!|#VALUE!|HVALUE!/#VALUE!|#VALUE!)#VALUE!{ #VALUE!500 sq miles:HVALUE!|#VALLE!|HWALUE!:#VALUE!|#VALUE!|AVALUE!|#VALUE!|VALUE!)VALUE![#VALUEU #VALUE!||#VALUE!1000 sq miles!#VALUE!|#VALUE!|VALUE!)#VALUE!|#VALUE!|HVALUE!|#VALUE!#VALUE!!#VALUE!|#VALUE!/4VALUE![#VALUE!2000 sq miles!HVALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!!#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!(HVALUE!HVALUE!/AVALUE![#VALUE!!#VALUE![ #VALUE!5000 sq miles!#VALUE!|#VALUE!)#VALUE!:#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!/MVALUE!:#VALUE!:#VALUE!|RVALUE!;#VALLE!{|#VALUE!10000 sq miles!#VALUE!|AVALUE!!#VALUE!:#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!|AVALUE!!#VALUE!|VALUE![#VALUE!!#VALUE![#VALUE!20000 sq miles!HVALUE!!HVALTE!!#VALUE!)=#VALUE!"TEVALUE! EVALUEN!#VALUE!#VALUE!!2VALUED [HV ALUEY #VALUE!HVALUE! emer Sto Center Name SPAS 1270-Fairbanks-DAD Zone2 Storm Date(s)$2.171967 [Storm Type Stonms and Atmosphenc River Episodes[semLocation SN 15051W Storm Center Elevation 3080 [Precipitation Total &Duration 6.4 inches in 72 hours Stonm Rep ive SST 610F Storm Rep ive SST Location 4500N 149.00 VW 13.Aug in-place Maxi SST O5F 62.5 [Moisture Inflow Vector SSE @ 910 in-place Maxtmi Factor 1.0 Temporal Transp (Date)15-Aug Transposition SST Location NA NA Ts ition Maxi SST NA Transposition Adj Factor 'EVALUE! |Average Basin Elevation 3,650 Highest Elevation in Basin 13,131 inflow Bamier Height 1,483 [Devation Adj Factor "=VALUE! [Total Adj Factor '=VALUE! FINAL DRAFT Page C-14 03/14/14 yw ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 .Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-RE P-031414 APPENDIX C SPAS 1270 Fairbanks,AK Storm Analysis August 11 -16,1967 "Ww ew Baw 100'w m8"w teorw isa°w te2"w OW '4e°w worw "ew Matw 40°w hietidd BOW Rew 132°W 130°w=:A G2 NB ee SON 2°' *&et aee 20ays.=e i |Peia1! av Lal wow «EW OT OTROTWOISS'W OTST IS4WOISZ*WCTSO'WTMBTW OCT OaztW O40 O18 WWW Hy split Niles @ Surface @ 850mb @ 700mb Q «0 a0 1.720 Storm 1270 -Aug.8 (1000 UTC)-Aug.18 (0900 UTC),1967 MAXIMUM AVERAGE DEPTH OF PRECIPITATION (INCHES) Duration (hours) Area (mi?)1 6 12 24 48 72 96 120 144 168 192 216 240 Total 0.2 0.45 1.66 2.24 2.95 4.67 6.59 7.91 8.78 9.74 10.91 41.75 42.36 12.45 42.45 1 0.43 1.62 2.16 2.89 45 6.43 7.63 8.49 9.47 10.63 11.4 42.04 12.04 12.06 10 0.43 1.62 2.16 2.89 45 6.43 7.63 8.49 9.47 10.63 11.4 12.04 12.05 12.05 25 0.43 1.61 2.16 2.87 45 64 7.63 8.49 9.47 10.57 114 12.01 12.05 12.05 50 0.43 1.6 2.14 2.82 4.49 6.31 7.39 8.27 9.12 10.2 11.15 11.61 11.98 11.98 100 0.43 1.56 2.11 2.79 4.39 6.23 7.37 8.22 9.11 10.2 11.04 11.58 11.8 11.80 150 0.42 1.54 2.07 2.75 4.37 6.13 7.35 8.17 9.09 10.15 10.92 14.52 11.62 11.62 200 0.42 1.62 2.04 2.71 4.27 6.07 7.16 7.99 8.9 9.99 10.74 11.39 11.49 11.49 300 0.4 1.48 2 2.65 4.18 5.92 6.96 7.77 8.59 9.75 10.47 11.13 41.23 41.23 400 0.4 1.45 1.96 2.61 4.13 5.81 6.94 772 8.59 9.61 10.34 10.91 1 11.00 500 0.39 1.43 1.92 2.54 4 §.69 6.64 749 8.29 9.27 10.08 10.52 10.8 10.80 1,000 0.36 1.33 1.8 2.39 3.77 5.31 6.32 7.04 7.78 8.77 9.43 9.93 10.06 10.06 2,000 0.31 4.13 1.63 2.24 3.53 4.86 5.78 6.42 7.21 7.99 8.64 9.08 9.25 9.25 5,000 0.2 0.92 1.31 1.84 2.9 3.78 471 §.24 572 6.48 7.02 751 7.59 7.59 10,000 0.18 0.69 1.03 1.45 2.42 3 3.78 42 4.64 5.16 §42 5.95 6.07 6.07 20,000 0.1 0.45 0.73 1.01 1.74 2.23 2.73 3.08 3.41 3.83 4.09 4.39 443 443 21,152 0 0 0 0.98 1.69 2.16 2.63 2.96 3.3 3.68 3.94 4.22 4.25 4.25 FINAL DRAFT Page C-15 03/14/14 -yz A E ASUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO saan ee NE A1022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.1 3-1 407-REP-031 41 4 APPENDIX C SPAS #1270 DAD Curve 8 Zone 2 Aug 8-18,1967 100,000 10,000 | 1,000 4 Area(mF)100 + ©Total storm (240-hour)10 4 @ SPAS 1270 Storm Center Mass Curve:Zone 2 August 8 (1000 UTC)-August 18 (0900 UTC),1967 Lat:62.8458 Lon:-150.5125 1.449 |qmmincenental +12 1.2 4 7+10 bdbad=aooIncrementalPrecipitation(inches)°-AccumulatedPrecipitation(inches)]he0.0 3 F 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 Index Hour FINAL DRAFT Page C-16 03/14/14 ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-031414 APPENDIX C 68°ON-T;Pe POs'oNn(a2z,"3 - os a 'aS 4 msByCasBDoeeeteieco35PPPSAeganPRRESlee4SPoeSeeeere 6e°ON4 +*FReeron esoNt | 62°0N4 bi 60°ON=TK 60°0'N -58°0'N N Miles 0 50 4100 200 1 t v T T v 152°0W 150°0'W 148°0'W 146°0'W 144°0'W 142°0W Total Storm (240-hr)Precipitation (inches) August 8-17,1967 -"The Great Fairbanks Flood" SPAS #1270 Precipitation (inches) El 0.00 -0.50 [£3 3.01-3.50 BJ}7.01-8.00 @ Daily [El 0.51 -1.00 [FJ 3.51-4.00 Fjs.o1-9.00 ==Hourly ED 1.01 -1.50 Ey 4.01-4.50 [FJ 9.01-10.00 =Hourly Est.Psuedo -<= (7)1.51 -2.00 [7]4.51 -5.00 [[]10.01-11.00 #Supplemental ([]2.01 -2.50 [J 5.01 -6.00 [-]11.01-12.00 ©Supplemental Est. ([}2.51 -3.00 Ej 6.01 -7.00 METS TAT,Ine.0204/2013 FINAL DRAFT Page C-17 03/14/14 -Z- SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-031414 ;APPENDIX C Fairbanks,AK,SPAS 1270 Zone 1 August 2,1967 Storm Name:SPAS 1270-Fairbanks-DAD Zong Storm Date:8/2-17/1967 Storm Adjustment for Alaska[AWA Analysis Date::2/4/2013 _Temporal Transposition Date 15-Aug Lat Long Moisture inflow Direction:$@ 1,420 miles Storm center location 6552N 14733 W Basin Elevation 3,650 feet Storm Rep SST location 45.00N 149.00W Storm Elevation 7,600 feet ransposition SST location 3445N 71.97 W Storm Duration 24 hours asin location 62.84N M4737 W Ikffective Barrier Height 1.483 feet The storm representative SSTis 61.0F with total precipitable water above sea level of 145 inches. The in-place maximum SSTis 62.8F with total precipitable water above sea level of 1.56 =inches. The transpositioned maximum SST is 83.0 F with total precipitable water above sea level of 4.06 inches. The in-place stom elevationis 7,600 which subtracts 0.80 inches of precipitable water at 61.0 F The in-place stom elevationis 7,600 which subtracts 0.83 inches of precipitable water at 62.5F The transposition stom elevation at 3,650 which subtracts x inches of precipitable water at 83.0F The moisture inflow barrier height is 1,483 which subtracts x inches of precipitable water at 83.0 F The in-place maximization factor is 112 Notes:Storm representative SST value was based on SST values for The transposition 'elevation factor is "AVALUE!ealleuananienrae ee heemesrut atnet cary snoreThebarrieradjustmentfactoris#VALUE!chan a I-degree over a large area and had t 4 ' .throughoot the period, The total adjustment factoris #VALUE! ObservedStormDepth-Area-Durati : 6Hours |12 Hours |24 Hours |48Hours_|72 Hours |96 Hours j 120 Hours |144 Hours;168 Hours |192 Hours!216 Hours |240 Hours 10 sqmiles}2.0 33 §2 73 83 88 9.4 99 102 102 10.3 103 100 sq miles 19 32 §.1 7.2 8.2 8.6 9.4 9.8 99 10.0 10.2 10.3 200 sq miles 19 3.1 49 7.0 8.0 85 92 9.6 9.8 9.9 10.1 10.1 500 sq miles 1.8 29 4.7 65 76 82 88 93 9S 95 9.7 9.8 1000 sq miles 17 2.8 45 6.4 14 78 8.4 9.0 9.1 9.2 9.4 9.8 2000 sq miles:1.6 2.6 43 6.1 71 75 79 8&6 &7 9.0 91 2 5000 sq miles 15 2.4 39 5.7 63 71 74 79 82 33 85 8.6 10000 sq miles 13 2.2 3.6 5.0 60 65 68 74 7.6 78 8.0 8.0 20000 sq miles 12 19 3.0 43 5.1 5.6 61 65 69 7.0 71 2 12 Hours |24 Hours |48Hours {72 Hours |96 Hours |120 Hours!144 Hours!168 Hours |192 Hours!216Hours |240 Hours10sqmiles;#VALUE![#WALUE!|#VALUE!/#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!|HVALUE!|#VALUE!S |4#VALUE!|#VALLE!#VALUE!100 sq miles!#WALUE!|#VALUE!;H#VALUE!;#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUES;VALUE![#VALUE!|#WALLE!|VALUE!200 sq miles!#VALUE!|#VALUE!|HVALUE!|#VALUE!|VALUE!|#VALUE!|VALUE!#VALUE!:4#VALUE!|#VALUE!|HVALUE!HVALUE!500 sq miles!#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!)#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!1000 sq miles)#VALUE!{HVALUE!|#VALUE!!#VALUE!(2VALULE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!!#VALUCE!|#VALUE!;#VALUE!|VALLE!2000 sq miles'#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!/VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!)#VALUE![|#VALUE!:#VALUE!| #VALUE!$000 sq miles!#VALUE!|HVALUE!|HVALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!|HVALUE!|#VALUE!!VALUE![#WALLE!|VALUE!|VALUE!10000 sq miles!VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!!#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALLE!(#VALUE!:#VALLE!!VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALLE!|VALUE!20000 sq miles!HVALUE!|#VALUE!!#VALUE!)#VALUE!|#VALTE!|HVALUE!|#VALUE!;#VALUE!;)#VALTE![#VALUE!|VALUE!#VALUE! Storm or Storm Center Name SPAS 1270-Fairbanks-DAD Zone 1 Storm Date(s)82-17/1967 Storm Type Stonns and Atmospheric River Episodes Storm Location 65.52N 14733 W Storm Center Elevation 7600 Precipitation Total&Dr 6.4 mchesin72hours Storm Representative SST 61.0F Stonn Representative SST Location 45.00 N 149.00 W"15-Aug iIn-ptace Maximum SST 62.5F 62.73 [Moisture Inflow Vector SSE @ 910 in-place Maxmi:Factor 1.12 Temporal Transposition (Date)is-Aug [Transposition SST Location MAN 7197 W [Transp Maximum SST 83.0 F[Transp Adj Factor #VALUE! Average Basin Elevation 3,650 Highest Elevation in Basin 13,131 Inflow Barrier Height 1,483 [Elevation Adjustment Factor EVALUE![Total Adp Factor #VALUE! FINAL DRAFT Page C-18 03/14/14 a A E ALASKAENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-031414 APPENDIX C SPAS 1270 Fairbanks,AK Storm Analysis August 11 -16,1967 reo'w ew '02"W tearw ,ew 156°W t64'w 182°w 760°W 148°W '"aorw "ew "aw 140°W Tae"Ww BOW 134°W B2°W 130°w NB > C0'N-B ow ceot Ny seN- sens *N 25a 'Ex g 3 s S >iS s NT ae oat ¥@.5 eC we ott” _ «* 54 (a4 :|@|35 | 0°N t1 SebanBan®,:qo 03of 4e"N Pe Speene Rew 4w 2"W OT OISB"WCTEO'WEA"WOCIS2"WOIEO'WiMSTWOCAO'WOCAA*W OO 442"WO140°W OO 138°WOTS0°WT4"WCT32"W 120WW Hysplie ' @ Surface @ 850mb @ 700mb A 40 860 1,720 Storm 1270 -Aug.8 (1000 UTC)-Aug.18 (0900 UTC),1967 MAXIMUM AVERAGE DEPTH OF PRECIPITATION (INCHES) Duration (hours) Area (mi)1 6 12 24 48 72 96 420 444 168 192 216 240 Total 0.3 0.58 2.04 3.37 §.36 7.54 8.55 31 9.71 10.21 10.5 10.56 10.65 10.66 10.66 1 0.55 1.96 3.26 5.18 7.32 83 8.83 9.35 9.89 10.19 40.22 10.33 10.33 10.33 10 0.55 1.96 3.26 5.18 7.32 8.3 8.83 9.35 9.89 10.19 40.22 10.33 10.33 10.33 25 0.55 1.96 3.26 §.18 7.32 8.3 8.83 9.35 9.89 10.19 10.22 10.33 10.33 10.33 50 0.55 1.96 3.26 §.18 7.32 8.3 8.83 9.35 9.89 10.19 10.22 10.33 10.33 10.33 100 0.53 1.94 3.16 5.07 7.18 8.16 8.59 9.35 9.75 9.94 9.96 10.2 10.26 10.26 150 0.51 1.91 3.16 §.04 7.4 8.07 8.54 9.16 9.63 9.8 9.88 10.12 10.18 10.18 200 0.5 1.88 3.06 4.51 6.98 7.98 8.49 9.12 9.59 9.79 9.86 10.05 10.11 10.11 300 0.48 1.84 3.04 4.83 6.85 7.67 8.39 9.1 9.51 9.79 9.83 95 9.95 9.95 400 0.47 1.79 2.93 471 6.69 7.64 8.26 8.9 9.41 9.62 9.65 9.79 9.85 9.85 500 0.46 1.75 2.91 4.66 6.54 7.64 6.21 8.84 9.33 9.5 9.51 9.72 9.78 9.78 1,000 0.44 1.69 2.77 4.51 6.37 7.44 7.81 8.4 8.98 9.13 9.17 9.42 95 9.50 2,000 0.41 1.62 2.59 4.27 6.11 7A 7.51 7.92 8.56 8.71 8.97 9.07 9.18 9.18 5,000 0.37 15 2.42 3.91 §.67 6.32 7.4 7.36 7.92 8.21 8.28 6.53 8.59 8.59 10,000 0.33 1.32 2.17 3.55 §.04 §.99 6.45 6.83 7.37 7.56 7.83 7.95 7.97 7.97 20,000 0.28 1.14 1.9 3.03 4.29 §.05 §.63 6.07 6.49 6.89 6.95 7.12 Ti 7.17 50,000 0.16 0.73 1.32 2.23 3.11 3.89 43 4.54 4.86 5.24 §.38 §.46 §.5 §50 FINAL DRAFT ;Page C-19 03/14/14 -zZ SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA11-022 13-1407-REP-031414 APPENDIX C SPAS #1270 DAD Curve s Zone 1 Aug 8-18,1967100,000 10,000 +=[=][=]oSitArea(mi?)=}oO1 + 0 5 6 7 8 9 Maximum Average Depth of Precipitation (inches) -s-T-hour 6-hour -e-12-hour --<- 24-hour -e-48-hour -*-72-hour oom 96-hour =m 120-hour =e 144-hour ===168-hour SPAS 1270 Storm Center Mass Curve:Zone 1 August 8 (1000 UTC)-August 18 (0900 UTC),1967 Lat:65.5208 Lon:-147.3292 1.41 [que incremental IncrementalPrecipitation(inches)AccumulatedPrecipitation(inches)20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Index Hour 240 FINAL DRAFT Page C-20 03/14/14 SUS Cc za ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 lean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-031414 APPENDIX C 6B°ONA re 66°O'N-F' eaoNndqa [ Precipitation (inches) El 0.00 -0.50 [J 3.01-3.50 J}7.01-8.00 ©Daily El 0.51 -1.00 Ey 3.51-4.00 F}s.01-9.00 =»Hourly - J 1.01 -1.50 Ej 4.01-4.50 [7 9.01-10.00 =Hourly Est.Psuedo -< (17 1.51 -2.00 [7]4.51-5.00 [7]10.01 -11.00 ©Supplemental (-]2.01 -2.50 EL]5.01 -6.00 [_]11.01-12.00 ©Supplemental Est.a ([]2.51 -3.00 KJ 6.01 -7.00 ig }esvon Stile=:33 ;a ee a? oF cat T6e'ON eeeemahSettiedeWeyvealtenil,D5 5 UP64ON en*wRx4Ltrare”Sar-62°0'N a |F0°o'N a -58°0'N S N Miles 0 50 100 200 T T T T T T 152°0W 150°0W 148°0'W 146°O'W 144°0'W 142°0W Total Storm (240-hr)Precipitation (inches) August 8-17,1967 -"The Great Fairbanks Flood" SPAS #1270 METS TAT.Inc,0204/2013 FINAL DRAFT Page C-21 03/14/14 SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO -y ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-031414 APPENDIX C Sutton,AK,SPAS 1269 Zone 1 August 5,1971 Btorm Name:SPAS 1269,DAD Zone 1 storm Date:8/51/1972 Storm Adjustment for Susitna-WatanaJAWAAnalysisDate:_(3/14/2014 Temporal Transposition Date 15-Aug .Lat Long Moisture Inflow Direction:SSW @1715_miles Storm center location 6190N 148.86 W Basin Elevation 3,684 feet Storm Rep SST location 38.00N 159.70 W Storm Elevation 6385 feet ransposition SST location NA NA [sn Duration 192 hours asin location 42,.76N 7412 W ffective Barrier Height 1,200 feet The stom representative SSTis 71.0F with total precipitable water above sea level of 236 =inches. The in-place maximum SSTis 74.0F with total precipitable water above sea level of 2.73 inches. The transpositioned maximum SST is NA with total precipitable water above sea level of 444 inches. The in-place storm elevation is 6,385 which subtracts 1.15 inches ofprecipitable water at T1.0F The in-piace storm elevationis 6,385 which subtracts 1.28 inches of precipitable water at 74.0F The transposition storm elevation at 3,654 which subtracts XXX inches ofprecipitable water at NA The moisture inflow barrier heizhtis _1,200 which subtracts XXX inches ofprecipitable water at NA The in-place maximization factoris 1.20 pvotes:Storm Rep SSc taken from a region between 35-40N and 160 The transposition'elevation factor is 1.00 to 164W where temperatures remainined within a few degrees from The batrier adjustment factor is”#VALUE!the 4th throught the 6th. The total adjustment factoris”#VALUE! 1Hours |24 Hours |36 Hours |48 Hours |72 Hours |96Hours |120 Hours |144 Hours |168 Hours}192 Hours| 4.53 61 6.7 88 95 -10.7 11.0 ili 411 41 $3 61 6.7 8.8 9.5 10.7 11.0 iL1 411 39 $1 59 63 84 91 10.4 10.6 10.7 10.8 3.8 49 5.6 6.1 8.0 8.7 99 10.1 103 103 3.5 45 S1 5.6 69 78 9.0 2 93 9.4 2.9 49 43 47 62 6.7 75 7.7 84 8.5 2.6 32 3.7 41 5.0 5.6 69 7.0 74 75 1,9 2.4 29 3.4 41 49 8.7 5.8 6.0 61 1.4 1.8 23 27 3.6 40 47 48 4.9 5.0 8.6 1.0 1.6 1.9 2.8 2.9 3.4 3.4 3.6 3.7 lHours |6 Hours Hours {|24 Hours |36 Hours |48 Hours |72 Hours |Hours j 120 Hours:144 Hours 168 Hours |192 HoursLsqmiles)HVALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!|HVALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!:#VALUE! [#VALUE!10 sq miles!#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE![|HVALUE!|#VALUE![#VALUE!|#VALUE!)#VALUE!|#VALUTE!|#V ALLE!#VALUE!#VALTE!100 sq miles!HVALLE![#VALUE!|VALUE![#VALUE![#VALUE![#VALUE!|RVALUE!!#VALUE![#VALUE!SHVALUE![#VALUE! [#VALUE!200 sq miles)#V'ALLE!{#VALUE![#VALUE![#VALUE![#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALLE!|#VALUE!(#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE![|VALUE!$00 sq miles!HVALUE!|#VALUEF!|#VALUE![|AVALLE!|¥VALUE!|HVALUE!|VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!}#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!1000 sq miles'#VALUE!|HVALUE!(#VALUE![#VALUE![#VALUE!|HVALUE!(HVALLE!#VALLE!(|4VALUE!|VALUE!|#VALUE!f #VALUE!2000 sq miles;#VALUE!|#VALUE!;#VALLE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALLE!|#VALLE!)VALLE![#VALUE!|#VALUE!!#VALTE!|#VALUE!5000 sq miles!HVALUE!|HVALUE![#VALUE![#VALUE!|#VALUE![#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!VALUES #VALTE!10000 sq miles!HVALUE![#VALUE![#VALUE![#VALUE!)#VALUE![#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE![#VALUE![#VALUE!|#VALUE![|#VALUE!20000 sq miles!AVALUE![#VALUELS #VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE![HWALUE!4VALUE!(#VALUE!|HVALUE!|VALUE![#VALUE! [Storm or Storm Center Name SPAS 1269,DAD Zone 1 [Storm Date(s)8 5.111971 Storm Type Synoptic Storm Location Ci 9ON 148.86 W Storm Center Elevation 6385 PrecipitationTotal&Duration (10 sq mi)11.limchesin 192 hours Stomn Representative SST OF [Storm Representative SST Location 38.00N 159.70 W.Aug [in-place Maximum SST W4.0F 74 [Moisture Inflow Vector SSW @ 1715 [in-place Maximization Factor 1.20 Temporal Transposition (Date)i5-Aug T ition SST Location NA NA [Transposition Maximum SST XA Transposition Adjustment Factor 1.00 Average Basin Elevation 3,654 Hizhest Elevation in Basin 13,131 Inflow Barrier Hei 1levatorAdjFactor"VALUE![Total Adjustment Factor "VALUE! FINAL DRAFT Page C-22 03/14/14 -yO SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA11-022 13-1407-REP-031414 APPENDIX C SPAS 1269 August 4,1971 OSROD 5 7 '.Ee 50 51 52ve§2 Oo;er oe 5956 oryeOST2 se 8 eatSea -é ATER TEM Ty -eo pa SESE)8 pee F 53 °C4SE sanAPA £3553°ma3°ST i Hy split *Surface *850mb *700mb 0 e400 800 4,200 1600s Storm 1269 -Aug.4 (1000 UTC)-Aug.11 (0900 UTC),1971 MAXIMUM AVERAGE DEPTH OF PRECIPITATION (INCHES) Duration (hours) Area (mi?)1 6 2 24 36 48 72 96 120 144 168 192 |Total0.2 0.56 2.8 4.19 |544 |6.29 |687 |8.99 97 |1097 [11.24 711.35 [11.39 7 11.391065|272 41 5.3 6.06 67 876 {947 |10.74 |10.97 |11.08 |11.10 |11.10100.55 |2.72 41 5.3 6.06 67 876 |947 [10.74 [1097 |11.08 |17.40 |11.1025065|272 41 5.3 6.06 67 e76 {947 |1074 |1097 |11.08 |7110 |111050065[272 |4.01 |5.28 |6.04 6.6 8.63 |9.38 [1063 |1086 |10.97 |11.05 [|11.05100063|264 |392 [514 |588 {|632 [838 [911 |10.35 |1057 |1068 |10.76 |10.76150052|258 |3.66 [5.01 |5.75 |631 |816 |889 |10.11 |10.29 |10.47 |1052 [10.62200051[263 [3.75 |492 |5.63 6.4 04 |865 |9.91 |10.14 |10.25 |1031 [10.3130005244[362 |4.75 5.3 687 |774 [|832 |956 |978 {|989 |996 |9.96400oas|237 [3.52 |4.61 54 566 |741 [|802 |927 |948 [|959 |S67 |967500047|228 (3.45 |4.47 5.1 5.62 69 775 |902 |9.22 |932 {941 |9.411,000 0.41 191 [291 |401 43 468 [618 |668 |751 |7.68 |841 |849 |8.492,000 0.36 |166 |263 [324 |365 |408 |496 |559 |685 |697 |7.38 [Ta?|[7475,000 0.24 |1.19 1.9 236 [|294 [336 [407 [4e7 |5.69 58 6.01 |610 |6.1010,000 0.19 |0.91 1.42 1.8 229 |263 |357 [|401 |466 |4.83 49 4.95 |4.9520,000 0.13 0.4 063 |o97 |1.58 19 [246 [292 [3.37 34 3.59 |368 |3.6846,397 oo7 |032 {054 |o75 |402 |132 |161 |196 [227 |232 [236 |238 |238 FINAL DRAFT Page C-23 03/14/14 -yz A E ASUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO cane ON AEA1.022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-031414 APPENDIX C SPAS #1269 DAD Curve s Zone 1 Aug 4-12,1971 100,000 10,000 4 -a-48-hour 1,000 +ume 72-hOUr --96-hour Area(mi?)w=120-hour -@ 144-hour re 168-hour mem 192-hour OD Totai storm (182-hous) 12 SPAS 1269 Storm Center Mass Curve:Zone 1 August 4 (1000 UTC)-August 12 (0900 UTC),1971 Lat:61.9042 Lon:-148.8625 154]|mmiccerentat nsgy Tt 12 IncrementalPrecipitation(inches)AccumulatedPrecipitation(inches)20 40 60 80 100 120 149 160 180 index Hour FINAL DRAFT Page C-24 03/14/14 Wy SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA11-022 13-1407-REP-031414 APPENDIX C 60ND oe 64ONTY 62°0'N4 33 60°0'N ] 58°0N-fe 56°0'N-4 220 Miles -S8°0'N -56°0'N qT T 152°0'W 150°O'W Total Storm Precipitaiton (inches) J t 148°O'W .146°0W J 144°0'W August 4-11,1971 (192-hours) Precipitation (inches) El 0.09 2 2.51-3.00 [EJ 6.01-7.00 Ei 0.10-0.50 [J 3.01-3.50 EJ 7.01-8.00 (J 0.51-1.00 [Fy 3.51-4.00 EJ 8.01-9.00 (1.01 -1.50 [3]4.01-4.50 [J 9.01 -10.00 (J 1.51-2.00 []4.51-5.00 [J 10.01 -11.00 (J 2.01 -2.50 EJ 5.01-6.00 (_]11.01 -12.00 [1]DAD Zones SBaeaeogceesweereee®#eSPAS #1269 Daily Supplemental Supplemental Est. Hourly Hourly Est. Hourly Pseudo Hourly Est.Pseudo J 142°0W Pe MetStat Inc.05/28/2013 FINAL DRAFT Page C-25 03/14/14 -y SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA11-022 13-1407-REP-031414 APPENDIX C Black Rapids,AK SPAS 1269 Zone 2 August 5,1971 po Name:SPAS 1269,DAD Zame 2 . torm Date:8/5-11/1971 Storm Adjustment for Susitna-Watana(AWA Analysis Date:3/14/2014 Temporal Transposition Date 15-Aug Lat _-s Long (Moisture Inflow Direction:SSW Z 1675 miles Storm ceater location 63.47N 14548 W Basin Elevation 3,654 feet Storm Rep SST location 38.00N 159.70 W Storm Elevation 6,235 feet ransposition SST location NA NA Storm Duration 192 hours asin location AX76N T4123 W fective Barrter Height 1,200 feet The storm representative SSTis 71.0 F with total precipitable water above sea level of 2.36 =inches.The in-place maximum SSTis 74.0F with total precipitable water above sea level of 2.73 inches. The transpositioned maximum SST is NA with total precipitable water above sea level of 4.44 inches. The in-place storm elevationis 6,235 which subtracts 1.13 inches ofprecipitable water at 71.0F The in-place stom elevationis 6,235 which subtracts 1.26 inches of precipitable water at TA.0F The transposition storm elevation at 3,654 which subtracts XXX inches of precipitable water at NA The moisture inflow barrier heightis 1.200 which subtracts XXX inches of precipitable water at NA The in-place maximization factor is 120 ENotes:Storm Rep SS:taken from a region between 35-40Nmad 160 |The transposition 'elevation factoris 1.00 to 164W where temperatures remzinined within a few degrees from The barrier adjustment factor is”#VALUE!the Ath throught the 6th. The total adjustment factor is”#VALUE! ObservedStormDepth:Area:Daration . lHours |6Hours {|12Hours |24 Hours |36 Hours |48 Hours |72 Hours |96Hours |120Hours|144Hours |168Hours |192 Hours lsqmiles!0.4 2.3.1 4.6 6.0 758 9.0 10.0 10.7 109 10.9 10.9 10sqmiles;0.4 21 3.1 4.6 6.0 75 9.0 10.0 10.7 10.9 10.9 10.9 100 sqmiles|0.4 2.0 3.1 45 $8 73 89 98 10.6 10.7 108 10.8 200 sqmiles;0.4 2.0 3.0 4.4 5.6 1.0 86 9.5 10.2 103 10.4 10.4 500 sqmiles;0.4 17 2.6 38 49 61 75 83 8.8 9.1 9.1 9.1 1000 sqmilesi 03 13 2.2 39 48 59 65 72 73 7.6 7.7 2000 sq miles!0.2 08 15 22 2.8 3.5 46 47 5.8 s§9 62 2 5000 sqmiles!0.2 0.7 11 1.6 22 28 34 37 45 46 4.7 4.7 10000 sqmilesi 0.1 05 0.7 1.0 4 1.6 2.0 23 2.6 3.4 3.7 3.8 20000 sq miles}0.2 0.4 0.6 0.9 12 15 18 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.6 lHours |6Hours 12Hours_|24 Hours |36 Hours |48 Hours |72 Hours |9Hours |120 Hours!144 Hours 168 Hours 192 HoursIsqmiles)VALUE!|HVALUE!{#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!|4VALUE!|EVALUE!|#VALUE![#VALUE!|#VALUE!#VALUE!#VALTE!10 sqmiles)#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE![#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!|VALUES!VALUE![#VALUE!HVALUE!{#VALUE![#VALUE!100 sq miles!#VALUE!|#VALUE!|4VALUE!{#VALUE![#VALUE![#VALUE!|VALUES;#VALUE![#VALUE!|#VALUE!#VALTE!VALUE!200 sq miles!VALUE!|4VALUE!|)#VALUE![#VALUE![VALUE!|AVALUE!VALUE![#VALUE![#VALUE!S #VALUE![ 4VALUE![XVALUE!500 sq miles!NVALUE!|HVALLE!|#VALLE![#VALUE!|AVALUE!|HVALUE!|XVALLE!|VALUE![#VALUE!S 4VALUE![#VALUE![#VALUE!1000 sq miles)HVALUE!|HVALLE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!|XVALUE![2VALUE!|SVALUE![#VALUE!/SVALUE!|#VALUE![#VALUE!2000 sq miles)HVALUE!|4VALLE!|#VALLE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!|VALUE!)VALUE![#VALUE!/#VALUE![4VALUE![#VALUE!5000 sq miles!HVALUE!|WVALLE!|#VALUE![#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE![SVALUE![VALUES |#VALUE![#VALUE![#VALUE!10000 sq miles'#VALUE!|#VALUE![#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE![#VALUE![#VALUE![#VALCE!#VALLIE!#VALTE!20000 sq miles!HVALUE!{HVALUE!|VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE![MVALUE![AVALUEST 2VALUE![HVALUESSHVALUE!f#VALUE!|#VALUE! Storm ot Storm Center Name SPAS 1269,DAD Zone 2 Storm Date(s)8 5.111971 [Storm Type Synoptic [Stomn Location 6347N 154 W [Storm Center Elevation 6235 Precipitation Total &Duration (10 sq mi)11.4 inches im 192 hours Stonn Rep:ive SST TOF Stonn Representative SST Location 38.00'N.159.70 W.Aug in-place Maxi SST 74.0F 4 [Moisture Inflow Vector SSW@ 1675 [In-place Maximization Factor 120 Temporal Transposition (Date)15-Aug Transposition SST Location NA NA Transposition Maximum SST NA [Transposition Ady Factor 1.00 LAverage Basin Elevation 3,654 Highest Elevation in Basin 13,131 ' Inflow Barrier Height ___1200 Elevation Adj Factor VALUE! Total Adjustment Factor "VALUE! FINAL DRAFT Page C-26 03/14/14 -Z- SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA11-022 13-1407-REP-031414 APPENDIX C SPAS 1269 August 4,1971 .jos:allloa9 980 osiB .ioe aE SSR PGF "ERE ::a grr eS eR OIE 1 erst .ne 0%Bes 65 Gayomy,bi Dey 'ors)- .6 0,8 +638;roy .;*ore cERE 7 *-eo *7 6 og oer ay 68 ie :ee J 2 oF 6 Zeg78 7m"70 .qT qT qT T T me tate ree ny lel Hysplit *Surface *850mb *700mb 0 200400 800 1.200 1.600 Storm 1269 -Aug.4 (1000 UTC)-Aug.11 (0900 UTC),1971 MAXIMUM AVERAGE DEPTH OF PRECIPITATION (INCHES) Duration (hours) Area (mi?)1 6 12 18 24 36 48 72 96 120 144 168 192 Tota! 0.20 0.44 2.11 3.21 3.86 3.86 469 6.11 7.64 9.23 10.21 11.02 411.17 11.18 11.18 1 0.43 2.06 3.14 3.78 3.78 456 5.96 7.47 9601 9.97 10.74 10.92 10.93 10.93 10 0.43 2.06 3.14 3.78 3.78 4.56 §.96 7.47 9.01 9.97 10.74 10.92 10.93 10.93 25 0.43 2.06 3.14 3.78 3.78 4.56 5.96 747 9.01 9.97 10.74 10.92 10.93 10.93 50 0.43 2.06 3.14 3.78 3.78 4.56 §.96 747 9.01 9.97 10.74 10.92 10.93 10.93 100 0.42 2.03 3.10 3.69 3.69 453 5.84 7.29 8.87 9.83 10.58 10.70 10.79 10.79 150 0.42 2.00 3.04 3.6 3.60 445 5.70 7.20 8.69 9.64 10.26 10.46 10.60 10.60 200 0.41 4.95 2.98 3.52 3.52 4.36 5.58 7.04 8.57 9.48 10.24 10.30 10.39 10.33 300 0.39 1.87 2.83 3.44 3.41 4.16 §.39 6.75 8.18 9.06 9.72 9.85 9.95 9.95 400 0.37 1.72 267 3.21 3.21 3.79 §.11 6.38 7.78 8.64 9.21 9.32 9.52 9.52 500 0.35 1.68 2.58 3.1 3.10 3.75 4.91 6.14 7.45 8.26 8.83 9.05 9.08 9.09 1,000 0.28 1.30 2.01 2.23 2.23 2.83 3.87 4.83 5.86 6.50 7.23 7.28 7.61 7.69 2,000 0.23 0.82 147 18 1.80 2.23 2.83 3.48 4.64 4.68 5.84 5.86 6.16 6.18 5,000 0.18 0.68 1.05 1.29 1.29 1.64 2.15 2.78 3.41 3.65 451 459 474 474 10,000 0.14 0.47 0.72 0.92 0.92 1.00 1.42 159 197 2.31 2.58 3.35 3.72 3.77 20,000 0.11 0.36 0.57 0.72 0.72 0.87 1.21 1,53 82 2.12 2.35 240 2.54 2.61 $0,000 0.04 0.21 0.32 0.42 0.42 0.46 0.81 0.81 0.98 1.31 1.31 1.66 1.88 1.88 FINAL DRAFT Page C-27 03/14/14 -yw ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-031414 APPENDIX C SPAS #1269 DAD Curve 8 Zone 2 Aug 4-12,1971 -e i-hour --Show +12-hour men 2a OUT how ee 48-hour oma 72-hour -e 96-hour oe 120-hour f}wit (44-hour €--68-hour£a --182-hourEHri4©Total storm (192-hour ANG cee _'BO | tj 5 6 6 T 8 9 40 11 12 uM Average Depth of Precip (inch SPAS 1269 Storm Center Mass Curve Zone 2 August 4 (1000UTC)to August 12 (900UTC),1971 Lat:63.4708333333333 Lon:-145.3875 1.4 |em Incremental P12 --Accumulated 12-4 ' e107 iS§E8sS08-3:8Paa 3 8§06-4 & §E E g 0.47 0.2 7 0.0 50 100 150 Index Hour FINAL DRAFT Page C-28 03/14/14 -yw ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-031 414 APPENDIX C 66°0'N="'eaLayregeBaBS64°0'N 43Ae 5 ak ""E60°0'N Miles 0 55 110 220 PS8°0'N PS6°0'N Total Storm Precipitaiton (inches) August 4-11,1971 (192-hours) SPAS #1269 Precipitation (inches) EI 0.09 (3)2.51-3.00 B§6.01-7.00 ©Daily Gi 0.10-0.50 Ey 3.01-3.50 9 7.01-8.00 ©Supplemental CJ 0.51-1.00 [0 3.51-4.00 FJ 8.01-9.00 ©SupplementalEst.._ (J 1.01 -1.50 [J 4.01-4.50 F]9.01-10.00 »Hourly =SyCJ1.51-2.00 [)4.51-5.00 []10.01-11.00 ©Hourly Est.a(J 2.01-2.50 [FJ 5.01-6.00 []11.01-12.00 =Hourly Pseudo (CJ DAD Zones ®Hourly Est.Pseudo MetStet Ine.05/28/2013 FINAL DRAFT Page C-29 03/14/14 Ze SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-031414 APPENDIX C Mt.Geist,AK,SPAS 1268 Zone 2 July 24,1980 Btorm Name:SPAS 1268-AK Zone 2 Storm Date:July 24.31,1980 Storm Adjustment for Susitna-Watana[AWA Anatrsis Date:3/14/2014 Temporal Transposition Date 15.AugLat Long istare Inflow Direction 3SW @ 530 miles Storm Center Location 63.64N 146.97W Basia Average Elevation NA feet Storm Rep SST Lecation S600N 14854 Storm Center Elevation 8,215 feet .ransposition SST Location NA NA Storm Analysis Duration 24 hours asin Location **ffective Barrier Height NA feet The stonn representative SSTis 56.0F with total precipitable water above sea level of 113 inches. The in-place maximum SSTis 58.0F with total precipitable water above sea level of .2§inches. The transpositioned matimum SSTis =NA with total precipitable water above sea level of 22 inches. The in-place storm elevationis 8,215 feet which subtracts 0.77 inches of precipitable waterat.56.0F The in-place stom elevationis 8,215 feet which subtracts 0.84 inches of precipitable water at 58.0F The transposition storm elevationat NA feet which subtracts NA inches of precipitable water at NA The moisture inflow bamierheightis =NA feet which subtracts =NA inches of precipitable water at NA The in-place maumizationfactoris 1.14 [Notes:Storm representative SST value was basedonSST valuesThetranspositionfactoris"#VALUE!for Futy 25-27 along the surface HYSPLIT trajectory data.Values The elevation banier adjustment factor is "#VALUE!were selected in region where temperature did not vary more than1a1-degree over a lange area and was as closest to the storm center. The total adjustment factoris"HVALUE! deserved Storm Depth.Area . 12 Hours ;18 Hours |24 Hours |36 Hours |48 Hours |72 Hours |96 Hours |120 Hours |144 Hours ;168 Hours;192 Hours' 1 sqmiles 10 14 16 2 24 3.4 38 43 49 ES 510sqmiles1914162.0 2.4 34 38 43 49 8.1 §1 100 sq miles:16 14 16 2.23 33 38 43 48 5.0 5.0 200 sq miles 10 13 1s Pa 23 2 3.6 42 47 48 49 500 sq miles:09 12 14 19 22 3.0 3.4 39 44 46 46 1000 sq miles 08 ll 13 7 21 2.7 31 3.6 3.8 41 42 2000 sq miles 0.7 09 ll 16 18 23 2.$1 3.4 37 3.7 $000 sq miles 0.5 0.7 09 13 15 18 2.2.6 2 29 3.0 10000 sq mies O4 05 0.7 10 12 13 7 21 2.24 25 20000 sq miles 03 0.4 05 0.7 0.8 11 13 16 17 19 19 Pidinseed Storm Depch-AresDurationHours|6Hours |12Hours |18Hours |Hours |36Hours |48 Hours |72 Hours {96 Hours |120 Hours |144 Hours |168 Hours;192 Hours1sqmiles!HVALUE!|#VALUE!(4VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!:#VALUE!|#VALUE![#VALTE!|#VALUE!|AVALUE!|4VALUE!|#VALUE!|VALUE!10 sq miles)HVALUE!}#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE![#VALTE!|#VALTE!100 sqmiles:#VALUE!;¥VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALCE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALTE!|#VALUE!|#VALCE!200 sq miles:HVALUE!;#VALUE!|#VALTE!|AVALUE!|AVALUE!|#VALTE!|#VALUE![|#VALUE!|AVALUE!|#VALUE!|AVALLE!|#VALTE!!#VALTE!$00 sq miles!VALUE!!#VALUE![#VALUE!|#VALUE!{#VALLE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!|VALUE!|#VALUE!|VALUE!1000 sq miles)HVALUE!!#VALUE!|#VALUE!:#VALUE!|MVALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!:#VALTE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!|VALLE!2000 sq miles!#V'ALUE!:#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!|€VALUE!|#VALUE!|MVALUE!|AVALUE!|#VALUE!|AVALCE![#VALCE!|#VALCE!5000 sq miles:HVALUE!!#VALUE!|#VALUTE!|#VALUE!f #VALUE!:#VALUE!|AVALUE!|AVALUE!:#VALUE!|VALUE!|AVALTE!|#VALUE!|#VALCE!10000 sq miles:#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!|AVALUE!|AVALUE!|#VALUE!|AVALUE![#VALUE!!VALE!20000 sq miles!AVALUE!{#VALUE!|#VALUE!|HVALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALTE!|AVALUE!|#VALTE!:HVALUE!|AVALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALTE! por of Stom Center Name SPAS 1268-AK Zone 2 Storm Date(s)Futy 24.31,1980 Storm Type Synoptic Storm Location 63.64N 146.97 W Storm Center Elevation 8215 Precipitation Total&Duration (10 sq mi)5.26 inches at 192 hours [Storm Representative SST 56.0F . [Storm Representative SST Location $600N 185 hity 'Aug Maximum SST S8.0F 6 58 Moisture Inflow Vector SSW @ 530 in-place Maximization Factor il4 Temporal Transp (Date)15-Aug Transposition SST Location NA NA Transposition Maximum SST NA Transposition Adjustment Factor "EVALTE! Average Basin Elevation NA Highest Elevation in Basia NA inflow Barrier Height NA Elevation Adjustment Factor "VALUE! Total Ad Factor "EVALUE! FINAL DRAFT Page C-30 03/14/14 Zw SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA11-022 13-1407-REP-031414 APPENDIX C SPAS 1268 Gate AK Storm Analysis July 25 -27,1980 158°w fo " Ow 14W Storm 1268 -Jul.24 (0900 UTC)-Aug.1 (0800 UTC),1980 MAXIMUM AVERAGE DEPTH OF PRECIPITATION (INCHES) Duration (hours) Area {mi')1 §12 18 24 36 48 72 96 120 144 168 192 Total 0.2 0.36 0.71 4.05 1.42 1.63 2.08 2.41 3.48 3.92 447 §.02 §.25 §.26 5.26 1 0.33 0.71 1 1.39 16 2.03 2.35 3.35 3.84 432 485 5.14 §.14 5.14 10 0.33 0.71 4 1.39 16 2.03 2.35 3.35 3.84 4.32 4.85 §.14 5.14 5.14 25 0.33 0.7 4 1.39 1.6 2.03 2.35 3.35 3.84 4.32 4.85 §.14 5.14 5.14 50 0.33 0.69 1 1.39 1.59 2.02 2.35 3.35 3.81 4.32 4.85 §.05 §.12 §.12 100 0.33 0.68 i 1.36 1.56 1.99 2.33 3.32 3.75 4.27 461 §.01 §.03 5.03 150 0.33 0.66 0.99 1.34 1.52 1.96 2.31 3.27 3.69 4.21 4.73 4.89 4.96 4.96 200 0.33 0.65 0.98 4.32 4.51 1.95 2.28 3.23 3.64 4.15 4.67 482 4.89 4.89 300 0.32 0.63 0.95 1.29 1.47 1.91 2.24 3.15 3.55 4.06 4.56 474 477 4774000.31 0.61 0.93 1.26 1.43 1.88 2.21 3.09 3.48 3.97 4.47 467 4.68 468 500 0.31 0.6 0.91 1.23 141 1.86 2.18 3.02 3.41 3.88 4.38 457 4.58 4.58 1,000 0.28 0.54 0.81 1.12 1.27 1.74 2.05 271 3.07 3.56 3.82 4.13 4.19 4.19 2,000 0.24 0.49 0.65 0.9 1.06 1.56 1.84 2.31 2.71 3.09 3.36 3.68 3.73 3.73 5,000 0.16 0.37 0.47 0.67 0.88 1.25 15 1.83 2.05 2.59 2.81 2.54 3.01 3.01 10,000 0.11 0.24 0.38 0.52 0.66 0.95 1.15 1.34 1.72 2.13 2.27 2.39 2.46 2.46 20,000 0.07 0.17 0.26 0.37 0.47 6.68 0.81 1.06 4.29 1.62 1.74 1.86 1.3 4.90 26,863 0.05 0.14 0.22 0.3 0.39 0.55 0.69 0.96 4.14 1.43 1.58 164 1.64 1.64 FINAL DRAFT Page C-31 03/14/14 SS an A E ASUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO arerereey Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-031414 APPENDIX C SPAS #1268 DAD Curve s Zone 2 July 24-August 1,1980 100,000 -e-1-hour ---6-hour -e-12-hour ->-18-hour 10,000 +-*-24-hour ---36-hour -*-48-hour some 72-HhOUT a=96-tiour 1,000 4 -w-120-hour &wm 144-hour£--=168-hour &mem 192-hour ©Total storm (192-hour) 100 4 moe 04 ---- 1 0 6 Maximum Average Depth of Precipitation (inches) SPAS 1268 Storm Center Mass Curve:Zone 2 July 24 (0900 UTC)-August 14 (0800 UTC),1980 Lat:63.6375 Lom -146.9708 GE Incremental +6 124 =---Accumusted SSs>ary)°2>wAccumulatedPrecipitation(inches)incrementalPrecipitation(inches)024 50 100 150 Index Hour FINAL DRAFT Page C-32 03/14/14 ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-031414 APPENDIX C # PPL RT nt f ahd dybeyee)Heatbeoa_y.ai#2myte 6Saagin77foam20. Total Storm (192-hr)Precipitation (inches) July 24-31,1980 SPAS 1268 Gauges ®Day =hoary 0 60 120 m0iesHourlyPeeudo Kilometers @ Supplemertal a 130 260 620 Precipitation (inches) El 0.00 -1.00 [3.01 -4.00 [6.01 -7.00[_]9.01 -10.00 (711.01 -2.00 [[]4.01 -5.00 [597.01 -8.00[_]10.01 -11.00 [J 2.01 -3.00 [[}5.01 -6.00 [7]8.01 -9.00 4302013 FINAL DRAFT Page C-33 03/14/14 we SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA11-022 13-1407-REP-031414 APPENDIX C Denali NP,SPAS 1268 Zone 1 July 24,1980 Storm Name:SPAS 1268-AK Zone I July 24.31,1980 Storm Adjustment for Susitna-WatanaAnatysisDate:3/14/2014 Temporal Transposition Date 15-Aug Lat Long Moisture Inflow Direction SSE@485 =miles Storm Center Location 6295N 150.08 W Basin Average Elevation NA feet Storm Rep SST Location 56.00N 148.54W Storm Center Elevation 4,750 feet ransposition SST Location NA NA Storm Analysis Deration 24 hours asin Location **iE fective Barrier Height NA feet The storm representative SST is 56.0 F with total precipitable water above sea level of 1.13 mches. The in-place maximum SSTis 58.0 F with total precipitable water above sea level of 125 ss mehes. The trenspositioned maumum SST is NA with total precipitable water above sea level of 22 inches. The in-place storm elevationis 4,750 feet which subtracts 0.52 inches of precipitable water at 56.0F The in-place storm elevationis 4,750 feet which subtracts 0.56 inches of precipitable water at S8.0F The transposition stom elevation at!)NA feet which subtracts «=NA inches of precipitable water at NA The moisture inflow barrier height is NA feet which subtracts NA inches of precipitable water at NA The m-piace maximuzation factoris 1.13 Notes:Storm represencattve SST value was based on SST valuesThetranspositionfactoris”EVALUE!for Juty 25-27 along the surface HYSPLIT trajectory data.Values The elevation baer adjustment factoris #VALUE! The total adjustment factor is "HVALUT! were selected in region where temperature did not vary more than21-degree over a large area and was as closest to the storm center. 168 Hours!192 Hours 71 ras 72 71 6.6 68 65 6.6 61 63 59 59 54 5.4 4§46 3.7 38 28 2.8 168 Hours}192 Hours #VALUE!;#VALUE! ¥VALUE!)VALUE! HVALUE!|VALUE! EVALUE!!#VALUE! VALUE!SVALUE! #VALUE!:#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! 4 #VALUE!#VALLE! 10000 sq miles)HVALUE!|#VALUE![#VALUE!;#VALTE!|VALUE!|#VALUE!|SVALUE!|#VALUE!|HVALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALLE!)#VALLE!20000 sq miles'HVALTE!2 #VALUE!(#VALUE!!#VALUE!|#VALUES |#VALUE!S |HVALUE!»MVALUE!|VALUE!AVALUE!f #VALUE!|VALUE!EVALUE! [Storm or Storm Center Name SPAS 1268-AK Zone 1 [Storm Date(s)Futy 24-31,1980 [Storm Type Synoptic Storm Location 62.95 N 150.08 W Storm Center Hevation 4,750 ipitation Total &Duration(10 sq mi)733 inchesat 192 hours Storm R ive SST 56.0F Storm Representative SST Location 56.00N 148.54 W July Ang \Mfaximum SST 58.0F 56 538 Moisture Inflow Vector SSE @ 485 In-place Maximization Factor 113 Temporal Transp (Date)15-Aug [Transposition SST Location XNA NA Transposition Maxinnam SST NA [Transposition Adjustment Factor 'VALUE! Average Basin Elevation XNA Highest Elevation im Basin NA Inflow Bamer Height NA Flevation Ady Factor 4EVALLE! Total Adjustment Factor "EVALLE! FINAL DRAFT Page C-34 03/14/14 yw A E ASUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO meee AEAI1022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-031414 APPENDIX C SPAS 1268 Gate AK Storm Analysis July 25 -27,1980 Tow 168"W ROW ww wea 1e0'w 18°w ne°w Bew 2*w 10°w usw new w8ew ww wow axaa.hathStorm Center -148.30,61.24 *ay,a73 Ca Palo eHyspit s @ Surface @ 850mb ©700mb °300 720 1,440 Storm 1268 -Jul.24 (0900 UTC)-Aug.1 (0800 UTC),1980 MAXIMUM AVERAGE DEPTH OF PRECIPITATION (INCHES) Duration (hours) Area (mi?)1 6 12 18 24 36 48 72 96 120 144 168 192 Total 0.2 0.49 1.65 2.8 3.37 3.74 4.08 5.2 6.49 6.71 7.04 7.17 7.33 7.33 7.33 1 0.45 1.82 2.72 3.28 3.66 3.98 §.03 6.23 651 6.83 6.93 7.05 7.13 7.13 10 0.45 1.82 2.72 3.28 3.66 3.98 §.03 6.23 6.51 6.83 6.93 7.05 7.13 7.13 25 0.45 4.82 2.72 3.28 3.66 3.98 4.93 6.23 6.44 6.72 6.83 7.04 7.06 7.06 50 0.45 1.82 2.72 3.28 3.66 3.98 4.69 6.14 6.34 6.65 6.76 6.93 6.93 6.93 100 0.44 1.79 2.62 3.26 3.58 3.89 4.75 §.99 6.19 6.47 6.56 6.61 6.78 6.768 150 0.43 1.76 2.62 3.21 3.55 3.87 47 5.87 6.07 6.36 6.46 6.56 6.65 6.65 200 0.41 1.74 2.61 3.17 3.5 3.85 4.62 5.76 597 6.24 6.35 6 48 6.58 6.58 300 0.38 1.71 2.58 3.11 3.43 3.75 4.52 5.68 §.86 6.17 6.27 6.33 6.45 6.45 400 0.31 1.67 2.54 3.05 3.4 3.72 4.48 6.57 6.74 6.08 6.18 6.31 6.33 6.33 500 0.31 1.64 2.5 3.01 3.33 3.69 4.39 §.48 56 59 6.07 6.1 6.25 6.25 1,000 03 4.55 2.34 2.83 3.17 3.5 4.16 5.14 §.31 56 57 5 86 §.89 §.89 2,000 0.27 14 2.14 2.54 2.83 3.2 3.51 4.36 4.46 4.78 5.03 §.37 54 5.40 5,000 0.21 1.12 1.72 2.02 23 2.44 2.93 3.67 3.88 42 4.32 4§3 4.58 4.58 10,000 0.16 0.84 4.35 1.55 1.81 2.07 2.23 2.75 2.9 3.33 3.49 3.74 3.7 3.77 20,000 0.1 0.56 0.96 1.16 43 1.42 4.61 1.98 2.33 2.49 2.66 2.75 2.8 2.80 28,940 0.08 0.43 0.75 0.92 4.05 1.21 1.32 47 1.84 2.06 2.16 2.24 2.25 2.25 FINAL DRAFT Page C-35 03/14/14 Zz A E ASUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO rere Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-031414 APPENDIX C SPAS #1268 DAD Curve s Zone 1 July 24-August 1,1980 _100,000 -e-1-hour ---6-hour -*-12-hour --18-hour ween :-e-24-hour +36-hour -*-48-hour --72-hour 10,000 + m=96-hour SSoe 120-hour a=144-hour oot 168-hour Area(mi?)m=192-hour ©Total storm (192-hour) 100 + 104 Maximum Average Depth of Precipitation (inches) SPAS 1268 Storm Center Mass Curve:Zone 1 July 24 (0900 UTC)-August 1 (0800 UTC),1980 Lat:62.9542 Lon:-150.0792 GEER incremental 18 --Accumulated124 °bad=oaooo2>>»AccumulatedPrecipitation(inches)IncrementalPrecipitation(inches)°N50 100 150 Index Hour FINAL DRAFT Page C-36 03/14/14 Zz SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA11-022 13-1407-REP-031414 APPENDIX C Gauges Precipitation (inches) Hl 0.00 -1.00 [[]3.01 -4.00 [6.01 -7.00[[]9.01 -10.00(11.01 -2.00 [7]4.01 -5.00 £97.01 -8.00[]10.01 -11.00(12.01 -3.00 []5.01 -6.00 [7]8.01 -9.00 Day Houry Houny Pseudo Sapplemertal ee WSs Oo tae (i a * >= Total Storm (192-hr)Precipitation (inches) July 24-31,1980 SPAS 1268 FINAL DRAFT Page C-37 03/14/14 -yw SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO rere Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-031414 APPENDIX C Denali NP,AWA,SPAS 1267 Zone 1 October 8,1986 Scorm Name:Seward,AK SPAS 1267-DAD ZoneStermDate:10/8-12/1986 Storm Adjustment for Susitna-WatanaWAAnalysisDate;3/4/2014 Temporal Transposition Date 25-Sep Lar Long :Moisture inflow Direction:SSE @ 1620 miles ,Storm center location @293N 151.14W Basin Elevation 3,650 feet Storm Rep SST location 40.80N 137.70 W [Storm Elevation 5,850 feet ransposition SST location NA NA Storm Duration 24hr feet asin location 62.84N L4737W The storm representative SSTis 66.0 F with total precipitable water above sea level of 186 inches. The in-place matimum SSTis 68.5 F with total precipitable water above sea level of 2.10 =inches.The transpositioned maximum SST is NA with total precipitable water above sea level of 4.08 =inches.The in-place storm elevationis §,850 which subtracts 0.725 inches of precipitable water at 66.0F The in-place storm elevation is 5,850 which subtracts 0.795 inches of precipitable water at 68.5F The transposition basin elevation at 3,650 which subtracts xx inches of precipitable water at NA The inflow barrier basin elevation heightis 1,483 which subtracts x inches of precipitable water at NA The in-place storm maumization factoris L115 Notes:DAD values taken from SPAS 1267 Zone 2.Used SST The transposition elevation to basin factor is”#VALUE!values on October 8-9 along with HYSLIT backward trajectory. The barrier adjustment factor is”#VALUE!Values were selected in region where temperature did not vary morethanadegreeoveralargeaces. The total adjustment factoris”#VALUE! {Hours |6Hours |12 Hours {|18Hours |24Hours |36 Hours |48Hours |72 Hours |96 Hours1sqmiles0s2.6 43 6.6 78 9.1 102 10.7 10.7 10 sq miles os 25 48 64 74 9.1 10.2 30.7 10.7 100 sq miles 0.4 23 42 5.8 7.0 91 102 10.7 10.7 200 sq miles 0.4 2.1 41 5.6 69 89 10.0 10.5 10.5 500 sq miles 0.4 21 4.0 $.4 6.6 8.5 98 9.8 102 38 52 64 84 95 9.8 99 35 439 6.1 8.0 9.1 95 95 33 45 5.6 73 8.2 &4 8.7 29 4.§.1 66 73 14 78 2.4 3.3 4.2 §.§6.1 6.2 65 12Hours_{18Hours |24Hours |3%Hours |48 Hours |72 Hours {|96 Hours#VALCE!|XVALLE!|#VALUE!|#VALTE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE![#VALUE!#VALUE![#VALUE!|VALUE![VALLE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE![¥VALUE!#V'ALUE!|#VALTE![#VALUE!|HVALUE![#VALUE!|SVALUE![#VALUE!HVALUE!|XVALUE!|VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE![#VALUE!HVALUE!|XVALUE!|#VALUE!|VALUE![#VALUE![HVALUE![|#VALUE! 1000 sq mules HVALLE![#VALUE!|VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE![#VALUE! 2000 sq miles HVALUE!|#VALLE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE![#VALUE![#VALLE! 3000 sq miles HVALUE![|#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!|HVALUE!|#VALUE! 10000 sq miles HVALLE![|#VALUE!|#VALUE![#VALUE!|VALUE![#VALUE![#VALLE!20000sqmiles:#VALUE!|#VALUE!|HVALUE![#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE![#VALUE![#VALUE! [Stom of Stonn Center Name Seward,AK SPAS 1267-DAD Zome 1 [Storm Date(s)10 8-12°1986 Storm Type Atmospheric River Storm Location 62.93N 151.14 W Storm Center Elevation 5,850 Precipitation Total&Duration 11.01 Inches 96-hours Storm Rep ive SST 66.0F 24te Storm Repre we SST Location 40.80 N 137.70 W Sep Oct Maxi SST 68.5F 69.0 67.0 Moisture Inflow Vector SSE 2 1620 Miles In-place Maximization Factor 1.15 Temporal Transposition (Date)25-Sep Transposition Dewpoint Location NA NA Transposition Maximum SST XATranspositionAdjustmentFactorHVALLE! Average Basin Elevation 3,650 Highest Elevation in Basin 13,131 Inflow Barrier Height 7883ElevationAdjustmentFactorVALUE!Total Adj Factor #VALLUE! FINAL DRAFT Page C-38 03/14/14 --Z- SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407 ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA11-022 -REP-031414 APPENDIX C SPAS 1267 Alaska Storm Analysis October 7-11,1986 4 57, 'styFei5wed i S9 .54 [. 1 rae ae,03 Se Ww 122°W i -62'N -60'N S80 6 SoeetOS646618,053 a Se|im ".©53!61 g3%EtwornoeatSHSSNe8s208onogg82>20OFes.abt ot war e 0"sfangecost7iyoneedelsonMewastere$30 Seaeae3: SNA "a br taeeee723 Br i : 164 482 160°W 488 456°154w 'sew tShw 14ew Ew aw 12 140°138°136w aw 432°430°128 126 saa 122 Hyaplit @ Surface @ 850mb @ 700mb 9 500 1,000 2,000 Storm 1267 -Oct.8 (1000 UTC)-Oct.12 (0900 UTC),1986 MAXIMUM AVERAGE DEPTH OF PRECIPITATION (INCHES) Duration (hours) Area (mi?)1 3 6 12 18 24 36 48 72 96 Total 0.2 0.5 1.33 2.63 5 6.74 7.72 9.47 10.59 11.01 11.01 11.01 1 0.49 1.3 2.58 4.87 6.59 7.48 9.14 10.24 10.66 10.66 10.66 10 0.48 1.28 2.1 4.75 6.43 TAN 9.14 10.24 10.66 10.66 10.66 25 0.47 1.24 24 4.58 6.1 7.23 9.14 10.24 10.66 10.66 10.66 50 0.45 1.2 2.35 4.47 6.01 7.12 9.14 10.24 10.66 10.66 10.66 100 0.43 1.13 2.26 4.23 5.78 7 9.11 10.24 10.66 10.66 10.66 150 0.42 1.12 2.2 4.21 57 6.93 9.01 10.1 10.6 10.6 10.60 200 0.41 1.12 2.14 4.09 §.61 6.87 8.89 10.04 10.53 10.53 10.53 300 0.39 1.09 2.13 3.99 5.48 6.72 8.8 9.93 10.38 10.38 10.38 400 0.38 1.07 2.12 3.99 §.42 6.67 8.67 9.83 10.07 40.25 10.25 500 0.36 1.06 2.11 3.96 §.37 6.61 8.45 9.78 9.84 10.19 10.19 1,000 0.35 1.04 2.02 3.79 5.16 6.36 8.39 9.5 9.83 9.92 9.92 2,000 0.33 0.98 1.92 3.47 4.91 6.09 8.04 9.12 9.51 9.52 9.52 5,000 0.3 0.9 1.73 3.25 451 5.57 A!8.23 8.41 8.71 8.71 10,000 0.27 0.76 4.65 2.9 4.09 5.06 6.62 7.31 1.37 7.83 7.83 20,000 0.21 0.64 1.26 2.38 3.29 4.19 §.49 6.09 6.15 6.51 6.51 50,000 0.13 0.4 0.79 1.45 2.04 2.62 3.16 3.93 4.03 4.21 421 100,000 0.08 0.24 0.45 0.81 1.18 1.51 1.98 2.25 2.37 2.39 2.39 100,631 0.08 0.24 0.45 0.81 1.18 15 1.97 2.24 2.37 2.38 2.38 FINAL DRAFT Page C-39 03/14/14 -y A E ASUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO rere ery Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.;13-1407-REP-031414 APPENDIX C SPAS #1267 DAD Curve s Zone 1 Oct 8-12,1986 100,000 7 -ida : SSN ee -e-1-hour :a =--3-houron™6h 40.000 7 --;--.-a-6-hour _-*12-hour *-e-18-hour 1,000 4 _-_-_-a --<-24-hour = £-S-36-hour e &-e-48-hour 100 4 -*-72-hour -96-hour G Total storm (96- 10 4 a:<r e eee we eae ee _re eee a -&-&hour) 1 t t t ++t t x--t t ++ 0 1 2 3 4 6 6 7 8 9 10 Maximum Average Depth of Precipitation {inches) FINAL DRAFT Page C-40 -03/14/14 -y ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1 407-REP-031414 APPENDIX C lJ 1S2've Total Storm (96-hr)Precipitation (inches) October 8-11,1986 SPAS 1267 Gauges °©Oy B®Moy Utes BE asl Prevdo 9 75 150 a Klomete ©Seeman 0 435 270 540 Precipkation {inches} Pd 000-1 00[(]301-400f-]601-700[]901-1000 (J 1401-1600(J101-200[]401-500[_]701-8 co KY 1001-12 00[_]1601-1800(1201 -3.00[]501 -6.00[-]8.01 -9 00 FJ 12.01-14 00[_]18 01-20.00 2262013 FINAL DRAFT Page C-41 03/14/14 -s. SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY -AEA11-022 13-1407-REP-031414 APPENDIX C °Black Rapids,AK,SPAS 1303 Zone 1 August 17,2006 SPAS 1303 Zane 18/1 7-22/2006 Storm Adjustment for Susitna-Watana13/4/2014 Tempora!Transposition Date 3S.Ang Lat Leag Moisture Inflow Direction:S$ @ 930 miles Storm center location 6347N 145.69W Basin Elevation 3,650 feet Storm Rep SST location S0.00N 145.00W Storm Elevation 5,400 feet iTramsposition SST location NA NA Storm Duration 132 hours [Basin location NA NA brtecie Barrier Height 1,483 feet The stom representative SSTis 55.0 F with total precipitable water above sea level of 1.07 inches. The in-place maximum SSTis 59.0 F with total precipitable water above sea level of 131 inches. The transpositioned maxmum SSTis NA with total precipitable water above sea level of 444 inches. The in-place storm elevation is 5,400 which subtracts 0.56 inches of precipitable water at 55.0F The in-place storm elevationis §,400 which subtracts 0.67 taches ofprecipitable water at S9.0F The transposition storm elevation at 3,650 which subtracts ax inches ofprecipitable water at NA The moisture inflow baer height is 3,650 which subtracts bs 3 inches of precipitable water at NA The in-place maximization factor is 25 The transposition 'elevation factor is 1.00 The barrier adjustment factor is”#VALUE! The total adjustment factor is”#VALUE! 1Hour |6 Hours WHours_|18Hours |24 Hours |48 Hours |72 Hours |96 Hours |120 Hours ;132 Hours 1sqmiles;0.7 29 $1 6.0 4.7 10.4 42 15.1 15.7 15.7 10sqmiles}0.7 29 §.1 6.0 77 104 142 15.1 15.7 15.7 100 sqmiles;0.6 2.47 58 1.6 10.2 13.4 142 149 15.0 200 sqmiles!0.6 2.6 44 8.8 78 102 2.6 132 13.8 143 300 sqmiles!0.5 23 3.7 55 TL 9.6 11.5 123 12.7 13.0 1000 sq miles!0.4 21 3.4 s.1 65 8.7 10.4 113 41.7 12.0 2000 sqmiles;0.4 18 3.0 45 5.6 72 9.1 99 10.4 10.6 5000 sqmiles|_0.3 14 2.4 3.6 42 §3 7.0 7.6 82 84 10000 sqmiles|0.2 11 18 27 3.1 41 $5 59 6.7 69 20000 sqmiles|0.2 07 14 16 2.0 2s 34 44 5.06 §2 50000 sq miles!0.1 0.5 0.6 0.7 os 1.6 24 3.1 25 35 100000 sq miles!0.1 03 0.4 0.6 os 2 17 2.0 2.3 2.4 1Hour_|6 Hours lo 132 Hours,Lsqmiles!#VALUE!|#VALLE!|HVALUE!|VALUE!)#VALUE!!#VALUE!|#VALLE!|#VALUE!|VALUE!|#VALUE!10 sq miles:MVALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE! #VALUE!|#VALUE!|MVALUE!|#VALUE![MVALUE![SVALUE! eVALUE!100 sq miles!#VALUE!|#VALLE!|#VALUE![#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE![#VALUE![#VALUE![#VALUE![#VALUE!200 sq miles (#VALUE!/#VALUE!|#VALLE!(#VALUE!(¥VALCE![#VALUE!(#VALLE!HVALUE!|#VALUE!|AVALTE!500 sq miles)MVALUE!|AVALUE!|#VALUE![XVALUE!S |#VALUE!|MVALUE!|#VALUE![#VALUE![#VALUE!|#VALTE!1000 sq miles:HVALUE! #VALUE!|VALUE!|#VALUE!|MVALUE![4VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE![#VALUE!|#VALUE!2000 sq miles)MVALUE!{#VALUE![#VALLE!|#VALUE!!#VALUE!|#VALUE!|HVALUE![|#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALLE!5000 sq miles)#VALUE![4#WALLE![#VALLE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!|SVALUE!|#VALUE![#VALUE!|HVALUE!10000 sq miles)MVALUE!|#VALUE!|WVALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALTE![MVALUE!|MVALUE![#VALUE![#VALUE!/#VALTE!20000 sq miles(HVALUE!|VALUE!#VALUE!|AVALUE![#VALUE!|VALUE!|#VALUE!|VALUE![#VALUE![#VALUE!50000 sq miles)HVALUE!|#VALLE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE![#VALUE!|#VALLE!100000 sq miles'AVALUE!|#VALUE![#VALUE!|#VALUE!)MVALUE! WVALUE!#VALUE!!2VALUE![XVALUE!!HVALUE! Storm or Storm Center Name SPAS 1303 Zone 1 Storm Date(s)8 17-22 2006 Storm Type Synoptic [Storm Location 6.47N 135.69 W Storm Center Elevation 5400 Precipitation Total&Duration (10sqmi)16.12 inchesin 132 hours Storm Representative SST 55.0F Storm Representative SST Location 50.00 N.145.00 W Aug In-place Maximum SST 59.0F 59 Moisture Inflow Vector SZ 930 In-place Maximization Factor 1.25 Temporal Transposition (Date)i5-Aug Transposition SST Location NA NA jul Transp Mavierum SST RA Transposition Ad Factor 1.00 Average Basin Elevation 3,650 Highest Elevation in Basin 13,131 Inflow:Barrier Height 1,483 rants Adjustment Factor =VALLE! Total Adrastment Factor eVALUE! FINAL DRAFT Page C-42 03/14/14 -ywO ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-031414 APPENDIX C August 18-22 S806 Storm Center Fm6347N*che 145.69 Wy: eee2° zl,[atesin2fZ,Be tA,=z]Oe?2e"los e*'3 .ee os welcai78 dn Hysplit e Surface «850 mb ¢750mb [)470 =O 680 1,020 1360 Storm 1303 -Aug.17 (0400 UTC)-Aug.22 (1500 UTC),2006 MAXIMUM AVERAGE DEPTH OF PRECIPITATION (INCHES) Duration (hours) Area (mi?)1 6 12 18 24 48 72 96 120 132 |Total 0.2 0.69 3.03 5.18 6.18 7.93 10.75 14.59 15.66 16.08 16.12 16.12 1 0.65 2.93 5.07 6.04 167 10.44 14.16 15.13 15.66 15.66 15.66 10 0.65 2.93 5.07 6.04 7.67 10.44 14.16 15.13 15.66 15.66 15.66 25 0.65 2.92 4.89 6.04 7.67 10.44 13.69 14.7 15.56 15.63 15.63 50 0.65 2.86 4.88 6.03 7.67 10.44 13.66 14.63 15.33 15.39 15.39 100 0.64 2.76 4.74 5.84 7.64 10.24 13.42 14.23 14.69 14.95 14.95 150 0.62 2.68 4.62 5.84 7.56 10.19 13.07 13.87 14.54 14.59 14.59 200 0.6 2.59 441 5.8 7.48 10.15 12.57 13.24 13.82 14.25 14.25 300 0.56 2.38 4.13 5.66 7.33 9.9 12.12 43.02 13.52 13.73 13.73 400 0.53 2.33 3.78 5.5 7.19 9.67 11.67 12.47 42.95 13.29 13.29 500 0.5 2.28 3.74 5.48 7.05 9.6 11.46 12.29 12.74 13.02 13.02 1,000 0.44 2.07 3.44 5.08 6.5 8.74 10.42 11.32 11.68 11.96 11.96 2,000 0.38 1.75 2.96 445 5.57 7.24 9.1 9.87 10.35 10.57 10.57 5,000 0.28 1.41 2.42 3.55 417 5.31 7.03 7.58 8.17 8.4 8.40 10,000 0.24 1.1 1.81 2.71 3.12 4.09 §.61 §.86 6.66 6.86 6.86 20,000 0.18 0.74 1.37 1.64 1.97 247 3.44 4.42 5.06 5.22 §.22 50,000 0.08 0.45 0.57 0.67 0.87 1.55 2.42 3.1 3.25 3.49 3.49 100,000 0.05 0.25 0.44 0.64 0.79 1.22 1.67 2.01 2.3 2.37 2.37 126,338 0.04 0.2 0.39 0.55 0.67 1.03 1.38 1.68 1.83 1.88 1.88 FINAL DRAFT Page C-43 03/14/14 -y . SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA11-022 13-1407-REP-031414 APPENDIX C SPAS #1303 DAD Curve s Zone 1 Aug 17-22,2006 4,000,000 -e-f-hour -e-6-hour --12-hour 100,000 -oe 18-hour + 24-hour -e-48-hour 10,000 +-*-72-hour -96-hour ---120-nour &E£ween 432-hour 5 1,000 4 Q Total storm (32- <hour) 100 4 10 4 1 Maximum Average Depth of Precipitation (inches) SPAS 1303 Storm Center Mass Curve Zone 1 August 17 (0400UTC)to August 22 (1500UTC),2006 Lat:63.465 Lon:-145.685 em incremental -Accumulated 16.128 F 15 == 5 5 310 4 L os=a38ao :358 5 é 5 8£0.5 4 Ls < Le by-al bo st, 20 40 60 .80 100 120 Index Hour FINAL DRAFT Page C-44 03/14/14 LASKA ENERGY AUTHORSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA 1.022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-031414 APPENDIX C 64°C W 52"0W 460°W 148°O wi sa6"o Ww 1440 a2"0W RSESSSAAPPinkeespeBEGFPGe be a Se i eee 7 eaon Wf tos°oN 62"O'n 4 . 4 Sal e2°ON 3 60 "0'N 499 53 °0'N T T T T T T T 840 W 152°OW 1s0°O W ae"O WwW 148"W 140 Ww 142°0W N aaMiles ,6 860 100 200iNTotal132-hour Precipitation {inches) August 17 0400 UTC -August 22 1500 UTC,2006 SPAS #1303 Precipitation (inches)Stations Bl o.00-100 [j701-sco (i4o1-1500 «Daily Bi 1.01-200 Bjeo1-93.00 1501-1600 ©Daily omitted i 2.01-3.00 f§9.o01-10.00 01601-1700 m Hourly woe (3.01 -4.00 [J 10.01 -11.00 FJ 17.01 -18.00 0 Hourly omitted L | ¢ ° ([]4.01 -5.00 [[}11.01 -12.00 [_]18.01 -19.00 @ Hourly pseudo (]6.01 -6.00 Fy 12.01 -13.00 [_}19.01 -20.00 [J 6.01 -7.00 [BJ 13.01 -14.00 Supplemental on Supplemental!omitted THIS, FINAL DRAFT Page C-45 03/14/14 2 SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-031414 APPENDIX C Old Tyonek,AK,SPAS 1256 Zone 1 September 15,2012 Storm Name:SPAS 1256 Old Tyonek,AK DAI Storm Date:9/15-22/2012 Storm Adjustment for Susitna-WatanaWAAnatvsisDate:1/22/2013 Temporal Transposition Date 15.Sep Lat Long |Moisture lnflow Direction:SSW @ 870 miles Storm center location 6126N 151.86W Basin Elevation 1,100 feet Storm Rep SST location 49.00N 157.00 W Storm Elevation 2,730 feet ransposition SST location NA NA Storm Duration 24 hours Basin focation 42.76N 7412 W Effective Barrier Height 200 feet The storm representative SSTis 54.0F with total precipitable water above sea level of 2.02 inches. The in-place maumum SSTis 57.0F with total precipitable water above sea level of 1.19 inches. The transpositioned maximum SSTis 9 NA with total precipitable water above sea level of 444 -inches.The in-place storm elevationis 2,730 which subtracts 0.18 inches of precipitable waterat 54.0F The in-place storm elevationis 2,730 which subtracts 0.20 inches of precipitable water at 57.0F The transposition storm elevationat 1,100 which subtracts xx inches of precipitable water at NA The moisture inflow barrier heizhtis 1.200 which subtracts xx inches of precipitable water at NA The in-place maumizationfactoris 1.18 |-\otes:Storm representative SST value was based on SST values forThetransposition/elevation factor is '#VALUE!September 13-14,2012 along the surface HYSPLIT trajectory dataThebeerad;ent factor is "HVALUE![The HYSPLITtrajectory also represents tha second period ofdjustm{rrecipitation well.Vales were selected in region where temperature r did not vary more than a 1-degree over a large area and hadThetotaladjustmentfactoris#VALUE!ti the period, lHour_|6Hours |12 Hours |24 Hours {36 Hours |48 Hours L 72 Hours |96 Hours |120 Hours |168 Hours 1sqmiles;0.9 32 39 6.83 8.6 9.0 10.0 11s 153 100 sqmiles}0.9 2.6 3.6 5.1 73 74 79 9.7 11.5 183 200 sqmiles;0.8 2.4 35 458 6.4 6.6 78 9.7 113 15.0 $00 sq miles}0.8 23 3.4 4.0 5.2 6.9 73 9.4 10.8 143 1000 sq miles!0.8 21 3.1 38 48 59 71 9.1 10.4 13.6 2000 sq miles}0.7 1.8 2.7 3.6 46 $5 6.8 8&6 10.0 12.9 5000 sqmiles}0.6 1.6 25 33 490 5.0 63 7.7 9.11.8 10000 sq miles!0.5 1.4 23 3.0 3.7 45 59 68 82 10.720000sqmiles!0.3 11 19 2.6 2 39 |51 5.8 71 |92 {Hour |6Hours |12Hours |24Hours |36 Hours |48 Hours |72 Hours |96 Hours |120 Hours |168 Hours10sqmiles!#VALUE!|#VALLE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!|VALUE!|#VALUE!|)VALUE![#VALUE!100 sq miles!#VALUE!|#VALUE!!#VALUE!;#VALUE!|#VALUE!|AVALUE!!#VALUE!)AVALUE!!#VALUE!|#VALUE!200 sq miles;HVALUE!|EVALUE!|AVALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!!#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!)#VALUE!|#VALUE!500 sq miles;HVALUE!|VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!#VALUE!|AVALUE!|#VALUE!;#VALUE!|#VALUE!1000 sq miles)VALUE!|#VALUE!;#VALUE![#VALUE!|2VALUE!!#VALUE!:HVALUE!|#VALUE!;#VALUE!|#VALUE!2000 sq miles:HVALUE!|HVALLE!|#VALUE!}#VALUE!|#VALUE!:#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!)#VALUE![#VALUE!5000 sq miles}#VALUE!|VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!!#VALUE!|#VALUE!)#VALUE!|#VALLE!10000 sq miles!#VALLE!|#VALLE!|AVALUE!|#VALUE!|#VALUE!:2VALUE!|#VALUE! #VALUE!:#VALUE![#VALUE!20000 sq miles!HVALUE!|#VALUE!/#VALUE!{#VALUE!|#VALUE!!#VALUE!!VALUE!#VALUE!!#VALUE![#VALUE! Storm or Storm Center Name SPAS 1256 Old Tronek,AK DAD Zone 1 Storm Date(s)9 35-22 2012 Storm Type Atmospheric River Storm Location GI26EN 151.86W Storm Center Elevation 2,730 Precipitation Total &Dr 15.91 inches in 168 hours Storm Representative SST SOF i5-Aug _15-SeplatersRepresentativeSSTLocation49.00N 157.00 W 56.5 57.0 In-place Maximum SST S70F [Moi Inflow Vector SSW @ 870peelsMaximiFactor1.18 Temporal Transposition (Date)15.Sep Transposition SST Location NA NA 'Transposition Maxinmm SST NA Transp Adjustment Factor "BVALUE! Average Basin Elevation 1100 ighest Elevation in Basin 5333 inflow Barrier Height 1200levationAdjFactorVALUE! [Total Adpustnent Factor "eVALUE! FINAL DRAFT Page C-46 03/14/14 SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. Wy ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA11-022 13-1407-REP-031414 APPENDIX C SPAS 1256 Denai,AK Storm Analysis September 15-21,2012 180°178°W T76"W 174°W T72*°W T70°W 168°W 166°W 164°W 162°W 1C0°W 158°W 158°WY 154°W 152"W TSO"W 148°W 140°W o144°W 142"W o140°W 138°W 138°W 134°W 132°W "Es aedee ale Ss otie]i=real'ee2 "|So Centar -1502,59.6 Hy split @ Surface @ 850mb @ 700mb 8 m0 1,100 2200 Storm 1256 -Sep.15 (1000 UTC)-Sep.22 (0900 UTC),2013 MAXIMUM AVERAGE DEPTH OF PRECIPITATION (INCHES) Duration (hours) Area (mi?)1 §12 24 36 48 72 96 120 144 168 Total 0.2 0.88 3.26 3.98 6.23 8.76 8.86 9.3 10.52 12.34 13.83 15.91 415.91 1 0.86 3.16 3.9 6.06 8.83 8.63 9.06 10.03 11.87 13.27 15.32 15.32 10 0.86 3.16 3.87 6.06 8.31 8.59 9.03 10.03 11.87 13.27 15.32 15.32 25 0.86 3.04 3.72 §.88 8.25 8.36 8.79 10.01 11.86 13.27 15.32 15.32 50 0.86 2.88 3.64 §.63 7.94 8.01 8.42 9.73 11.55 13.27 15.32 15.32 100 0.85 2.58 3.61 5.09 7.34 7.41 7.86 9.66 11.62 13.16 15.25 15.25 150 0.84 2.45 3.57 4.79 6.74 6.78 7.63 9.66 11.49 13.04 15.13 15.13 200 0.83 2.42 3.53 4.49 6.41 6.58 75 9.66 11.29 12.92 15 15.00 300 0.81 2.37 3.46 4 §.83 6.44 7.43 9.58 41.13 12.57 14.76 14.76 400 0.77 2.32 3.4 3.98 §.23 6.31 7.36 95 10.99 12.33 14.52 14.52 500 0.77 2.29 3.35 3.96 §.21 5.95 7.27 9.43 10.83 12.33 14.34 14.34 1,000 0.75 2.12 3.14 3.8 4.76 §.85 7.05 9.08 10.43 11.77 13.61 13.61 2,000 0.71 1.83 2.73 3.64 4.55 55 6.78 8.61 9.95 11.22 12.86 12.86 5,000 0.59 1.57 2.52 3.28 4.03 4.98 6.34 7.66 9.07 10.66 11.83 11.83 10,000 0.46 1.38 2.28 3.03 3.66 4.52 §.91 6.82 8.16 977 10.72 10.72 20,000 0.32 1.12 1.91 2.58 3.18 3.9 §.14 5.82 7.07 8.38 9.24 9.24 50,000 0.13 0.72 1.18 1.73 2.27 26 3.49 4.02 4.49 §42 6.24 6.24 100,000 0.08 0.43 0.77 1.08 1.42 1.86 2.17 2.58 2.74 3.47 3.92 3.92 116,206 0 0 0.67 0.94 1.29 1.63 1.94 2.24 2.55 3.04 3.29 3.29 FINAL DRAFT Page C-47 03/14/14 -y A E ASUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO arerereyy Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-031414 APPENDIX C SPAS #1256 DAD Curve s Zone 1 Sep 16-22,2012 1,000,000 -e-1-hour - -6-hour 100,000 4 -*-12-hour Daehour 10,000 Show, te 48-hour €=72-hour A 1,000 4 |-e-96-hour < jamene $20-hour jomiien 144-hour100468-hour ©Total storm (168-hour: 10 4 1 16 Maximum Average Depth of Precipitation {inches) SPAS 1256 Storm Center Mass Curve:Zone 1September15(1000 UTC)-September 22 (0900 UTC),2012 Lat:61.26 Lon:-151.86 GEERIncemental IncrementalPrecipitation(inches)AccumulatedPrecipitation(inches)20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 Index Hour FINAL DRAFT Page C-48 03/14/14 yw ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-031414 APPENDIX C seo w 162°Ww 160°O Ww 148°0W 148°CWw COON oO en rr ee 5k be Se on ee SY ee ee Rags «o eg FoesBy at >"SN ia!et age Se hes i 64°O'N-T fs VAD SAN POO sa att 4a "s . ¢fag bet.Orne LO4°0N e2*0'N "O'N CO"ON-F '¥5 a a :a fa'a fE 2 me a 0 4 ee "7 on.f oo NB gs ia £Le0*O'N eony ..58 °0'NhkNileso8646090180 100 W 148"0 Ww sa0"ow Total 168-hour Storm Precipitation (inches) Sept.15,2012 1000 Z -Sept.22,2012 0900 Z SPAS #1256 Precipitation (inches) Bi o.00-100(]7.01-800 [14.01 -15.00 Fj 22.01 -24.00 ©Daily Bh i.o1-200(]8.01-900 [[)15.01 -16.00 BJ 24.01 -26.00 @ Hourly .El 2.01 -3.00 [9.01 -10.00 [()16.01 -17.00 [FJ 26.01 -28.00 @ Hourly Pseudo £7]3.01 -4.00 J 10.01 -11.00 J 17.01 -18.00 [7]28.01 -30.00 +Supplemental(4.01 -5.00 fj 11.01 -12.00 BY 18.01 -19.00 [(_]30.01 -32.00 ©Supplemental Est. }5.01 -6.00 [Ej 12.01 -13.00 [BY 19.01 -20.00 [_]32.01 -34.00 []DAD Zones []6.01 -7.00 [TJ 13.01 -14.00 BJ 20.01 -22.00 3 Radar location NET BT Ise.onIN3 FINAL DRAFT Page C-49 03/14/14 Wy : | ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 Appendix D Storm Precipitation Analysis System (SPAS)Program Description FINAL DRAFT 03/07/14 wz | ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 INTRODUCTION The Storm Precipitation Analysis System (SPAS)is grounded on years of scientific research with a demonstrated reliability in hundreds of post-storm precipitation analyses.It has evolved into a trusted hydrometeorological tool that provides accurate precipitation data at a high spatial and temporal resolution for use in a variety of sensitive hydrologic applications (Faulkner et al.2004, Tomlinson et al.2003-2012).Applied Weather Associates,LLC and METSTAT,Inc.initially developed SPAS in 2002 for use in producing Depth-Area-Duration values for Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP)analyses.SPAS utilizes precipitation gauge data,"basemaps”and radar data (when available)to produce gridded precipitation at time intervals as short as 5-minutes,at spatial scales as fine as 1 km'and in a variety of customizable formats.To date (February 2014)SPAS has been used to analyze over 330 storm centers across all types of terrain,among highly varied meteorological settings and some occurring over 100-years ago. SPAS output has many applications including,but not limited to:hydrologic model calibration/validation,flood event reconstruction,storm water runoff analysis,forensic cases and PMP studies.Detailed SPAS-computed precipitation data allow hydrologists to accurately model runoff from basins,particularly when the precipitation is unevenly distributed over the drainage basin or when rain gauge data are limited or not available.The increased spatial and temporal accuracy of precipitation estimates has eliminated the need for commonly made assumptions about precipitation characteristics (such as uniform precipitation over a watershed),thereby greatly improving the precision and reliability of hydrologic analyses. To instill consistency in SPAS analyses,many of the core methods have remained consistent from the beginning.However,SPAS is constantly evolving and improving through new scientific advancements and as new data and improvements are incorporated.This write-up describes the current inter-workings of SPAS,but the reader should realize SPAS can be customized on a case- by-case basis to account for special circumstances;these adaptations are documented and included in the deliverables.The overarching goal of SPAS is to combine the strengths of rain gauge data and radar data (when available)to provide sound,reliable and accurate spatial precipitation data. Hourly precipitation observations are generally limited to a small number of locations,with many basins lacking observational precipitation data entirely.However,Next Generation Radar (NEXRAD)data provide valuable spatial and temporal information over data-sparse basins,which have historically lacked reliability for determining precipitation rates and reliable quantitative precipitation estimates (QPE).The improved reliability in SPAS is made possible by hourly calibration of the NEXRAD radar-precipitation relationship,combined with local hourly bias adjustments to force consistency between the final result and "ground truth”precipitation measurements.If NEXRAD radar data are available (generally for storm events since the mid- 1990's),precipitation accumulation at temporal scales as frequent as 5-minutes can be analyzed.If FINAL DRAFT Page D-1 03/07/14 -Z-| ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 no NEXRAD data are available,then precipitation data are analyzed in hourly increments.A summary of the general SPAS processes are shown in flow chart in Figure D.1. |Define Analysis Domain and Time Frame | I |Precipitation Data Extration and Mining ] Basemap S-min radas reflectivi . 1-hour radar|moses Vl Dynamic 2-Raigortnen | Bi fintial Z-Raided'Bias basedinterpolation;ooid oid Radar-aded <>ided Precipitation gridpreciponeFinal1-hour SPAS Precipitation grid Figure D.1.SPAS flow chart. SETUP Prior to a SPAS analysis,careful definition of the storm analysis domain and time frame to be analyzed is established.Several considerations are made to ensure the domain (longitude-latitude box)and time frame are sufficient for the given application. SPAS Analysis Domain For PMP applications it is important to establish an analysis domain that completely encompasses a storm center,meanwhile hydrologic modeling applications are more concerned about a specific basin,watershed or catchment.If radar data are available,then it is also important to establish an FINAL DRAFT Page D-2 03/07/14 -yw ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1 407-REP-030714 area large enough to encompass enough stations (minimum of 30)to adequately derive reliable radar-precipitation intensity relationships (discussed later).The domain is defined by evaluating existing documentation on the storm as well as plotting and evaluating initial precipitation gauge data on a map.The analysis domain is defined to include as many hourly recording gauges as possible given their importance in timing.The domain must include enough of a buffer to accurately model the nested domain of interest.The domain is defined as a longitude-latitude (upper left and lower right corner)rectangular region. SPAS Analysis Time Frame Ideally,the analysis time frame,also referred to as the Storm Precipitation Period (SPP),will extend from a dry period through the target wet period then back into another dry period.This is to ensure that total storm precipitation amounts can be confidently associated with the storm in question and not contaminated by adjacent wet periods.If this is not possible,a reasonable time period is selected that is bounded by relatively lighter precipitation.The time frame of the hourly data must be sufficient to capture the full range of daily gauge observational periods for the daily observations to be disaggregated into estimated incremental hourly values (discussed later).For example,if a daily gauge takes observations at 8:00 AM,then the hourly data must be available from 8:00 AM the day prior.Given the configuration of SPAS,the minimum SPP is 72 hours and aligns midnight to midnight. The core precipitation period (CPP)is a sub-set of the SPP and represents the time period with the most precipitation and the greatest number of reporting gauges.The CPP represents the time period of interest and where our confidence in the results is highest. DATA The foundation of a SPAS analysis is the "ground truth”precipitation measurements.In fact,the level of effort involved in "data mining”and quality control represent over half of the total level of effort needed to conduct a complete storm analysis.SPAS operates with three primary data sets: precipitation gauge data,a "basemap”and,if available,radar data.Table D.1 conveys the variety of precipitation gauges usable by SPAS.For each gauge,the following elements are gathered, entered and archived into SPAS database: Station ID Station name Station type (H=hourly,D=Daily,S=Supplemental,etc.) Longitude in decimal degrees Latitude in decimal degrees Elevation in feet above MSL Observed precipitation FINAL DRAFT Page D-3 03/07/14 -Z- ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO EAT nD Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 e Observation times e Source e If unofficial,the measurement equipment and/or method is also noted. Based on the SPP and analysis domain,hourly and daily precipitation gauge data are extracted from our in-house database as well as the Meteorological Assimilation Data Ingest System (MADIS). Our in-house database contains data dating back to the late 1800s,while the MADIS system (described below)contains archived data back to 2002. Hourly Precipitation Data Our hourly precipitation database is largely comprised of data from NCDC TD-3240,but also precipitation data from other mesnonets and meteorological networks (e.g.ALERT,Flood Control Districts,etc.)that we have collected and archived as part of previous studies.Meanwhile,MADIS provides data from a large number of networks across the U.S.,including NOAA's HADS (Hydrometeorological Automated Data System),numerous mesonets,the Citizen Weather Observers Program (CWOP),departments of transportation,etc.(see http://madis.noaa.gov/mesonet_providers.html for a list of providers).Although our automatic data extraction is fast,cost-effective and efficient,it never captures all of the available precipitation data for a storm event.For this reason,a thorough "data mining”effort is undertaken to acquire all available data from sources such as U.S.Geological Survey (USGS),Remote Automated Weather Stations (RAWS),Community Collaborative Rain,Hail &Snow Network (CoCoRaHS),National Atmospheric Deposition Program (NADP),Clean Air Status and Trends Network (CASTNET), local observer networks,Climate Reference Network (CRN),Global Summary of the Day (GSD) and Soil Climate Analysis Network (SCAN).Unofficial hourly precipitation are gathered to give guidance on either timing or magnitude in areas otherwise void of precipitation data.The WeatherUnderground and MesoWest,two of the largest weather databases on the Internet,contain a good deal of official data,but also includes data from unofficial gauges. Table D.1 Different precipitation gauge types used by SPAS. Precipitation Gauge Type |Description . Hourly Hourly gauges with complete,or nearly complete,incremental hourly precipitation data. Hourly estimated Hourly gauges with some estimated hourly values,but otherwise reliable. Hourly pseudo Hourly gauges with reliable temporal precipitation data,but the magnitude isquestionableinrelationtoco-located daily or supplemental gauge.Daily Daily gauge with complete data and known observation times. Daily estimated Daily gauges with some or all estimated data. Supplemental Gauges with unknown or irregular observation times,but reliable total storm precipitation data.(E.g.public reports,storms reports,"Bucket surveys”,etc.)Supplemental estimated |Gauges with estimated total storm precipitation values based on otherinformation(e.g.newspaper articles,stream flow discharge,inferences from nearby gauges,pre-existing total storm isohyetal maps,etc.) FINAL DRAFT Page D-4 03/07/14 -y ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 Daily Precipitation Data Our daily database is largely based on NCDC's TD-3206 (pre-1948)and TD-3200 (1948 through present)as well as SNOTEL data from NRCS.Since the late 1990s,the CoCoRaHS network of more than 15,000 observers in the U.S.has become a very important daily precipitation source. Other daily data are gathered from similar,but smaller gauge networks,for instance the High Spatial Density Precipitation Network in Minnesota. As part of the daily data extraction process,the time of observation accompanies each measured precipitation value.Accurate observation times are necessary for SPAS to disaggregate the daily precipitation into estimated incremental values (discussed later).Knowing the observation time also allows SPAS to maintain precipitation amounts within given time bounds,thereby retaining known precipitation intensities.Given the importance of observation times,efforts are taken to insure the observation times are accurate.Hardcopy reports of "Climatological Data,”scanned observational forms (available on-line from the NCDC)and/or gauge metadata forms have proven to be valuable and accurate resources for validating observation times.Furthermore,erroneous observation times are identified in the mass-curve quality-control procedure (discussed later)and can be corrected at that point in the process. Supplemental Precipitation Gauge Data For gauges with unknown or irregular observation times,the gauge is considered a "supplemental” gauge.A supplemental gauge can either be added to the storm database with a storm total and the associated SPP as the temporal bounds or as a gauge with the known,but irregular observation times and associated precipitation amounts.For instance,if all that is known is 3 inches fell between 0800-0900,then that information can be entered.Gauges or reports with nothing more than a storm total are often abundant,but to use them,it is important the precipitation is only from the storm period in question.Therefore,it is ideal to have the analysis time frame bounded by dry periods. Perhaps the most important source of data,if available,is from "bucket surveys,”which provide comprehensive lists of precipitation measurements collected during a post-storm field exercise. Although some bucket survey amounts are not from conventional precipitation gauges,they provide important information,especially in areas lacking data.Particularly for PMP-storm analysis applications,it is customary to accept extreme,but valid non-standard precipitation values (such a bottles and other open containers that catch rainfall)in order to capture the highest precipitation values. FINAL DRAFT Page D-5 03/07/14 -Z-| ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO EAI 1029 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 Basemap "Basemaps”are independent grids of spatially distributed weather or climate variables that are used to govern the spatial patterns of the hourly precipitation.The basemap also governs the spatial resolution of the final SPAS grids,unless radar data are available/used to govern the spatial resolution.Note that a base map is not required as the hourly precipitation patterns can be based on station characteristics and an inverse distance weighting technique (discussed later).Basemaps in complex terrain are often based on the PRISM mean monthly precipitation (Figure D.2a)or Hydrometeorological Design Studies Center precipitation frequency grids (Figure D.2b)given they resolve orographic enhancement areas and micro-climates at a spatial resolution of 30-seconds (about 800 m).Basemaps of this nature in flat terrain are not as effective given the small terrain forced precipitation gradients.Therefore,basemaps for SPAS analyses in flat terrain are often developed from pre-existing (hand-drawn)isohyetal patterns (Figure D.2c),composite radar imagery or a blend of both. 'ae #Be Bev 20 Men te Be on -;:100.200 Av.740 Bas.too .Lt Bi Po te 1 .M2306MPras-809 EB ror.00!”i +Binoy Baw ta Mee.Vi TNS we BIE Chaos 201-000 Dro worweeLgedDinemssgrrr!4 bo:(C1 4pt-soc g§209-9000 § A PUTS Stet meor cera ZA "Di sot-si-099-#100yt.oF 7 a)b)c) Figure D.2 Sample SPAS "basemaps:”(a)A pre-existing (USGS)isohyetal pattern across flat terrain (SPAS #1209),(b)PRISM mean monthly (October)precipitation (SPAS #1192)and (c)A 100-year 24-hour precipitation grid from NOAA Atlas 14 (SPAS #1138). Radar Data For storms occurring since approximately the mid-1990s,weather radar data are available to supplement the SPAS analysis.A fundamental requirement for high quality radar-estimated precipitation is a high quality radar mosaic,which is a seamless collection of concurrent weather radar data from individual radar sites,however in some cases a single radar is sufficient (i.e.for a small area size storm event such as a thunderstorm).Weather radar data have been in use by meteorologists since the 1960s to estimate precipitation depths,but it was not until the early 1990s that new,more accurate NEXRAD Doppler radar (WSR88D)was placed into service across the United States.Currently,efforts are underway to convert the WSR88D radars to dual polarization (DualPol)radar.Today,NEXRAD radar coverage of the contiguous United States is comprised of 159 operational sites and there are 30 in Canada.Each U.S.radar covers an approximate 285 mile FINAL DRAFT Page D-6 03/07/14 -ywO ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 (460 km)radial extent and while Canadian radars have approximately 256 km (138 nautical miles) radial extent over which their radar can detect precipitation.(see Figure E.3)The primary vendor of NEXRAD weather radar data for SPAS is Weather Decision Technologies,Inc.(WDT),who accesses,mosaics,archives and quality-controls NEXRAD radar data from NOAA and Environment Canada.SPAS utilizes Level IT NEXRAD radar reflectivity data in units of dBZ, available every 5-minutes in the U.S.and 10-minutes in Canada. NEXRAD Coverage Below 10,000 Feet AGL VCP12 Coverage . [_]4.000 ft above ground level” ((7]6.000 ft above ground lever" [J 10,000 ft above ground level” *Better af beam height|3 Teren binshage micated where 50%or more cfheam bicsagd 0 125 250 §60 750 Milesosae| ¢bs Retr. Figure D.3.U.S.radar locations and their radial extents of coverage below 10,000 feet above ground level (AGL).Each U.S.radar covers an approximate 285 mile radial extent over which the radar can detect precipitation. The WDT and National Severe Storms Lab (NSSL)Radar Data Quality Control Algorithm (RDQC)removes non-precipitation artifacts from base Level-II radar data and remaps the data from polar coordinates to a Cartesian (latitude/longitude)grid.Non-precipitation artifacts include ground clutter,bright banding,sea clutter,anomalous propagation,sun strobes,clear air returns, chaff,biological targets,electronic interference and hardware test patterns.The RDQC algorithm uses sophisticated data processing and a Quality Control Neural Network (QCNN)to delineate the precipitation echoes caused by radar artifacts (Lakshmanan and Valente 2004).Beam blockages FINAL DRAFT Page D-7 03/07/14 Ze ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 due to terrain are mitigated by using 30 meter DEM data to compute and then discard data from a radar beam that clears the ground by less than 50 meters and incurs more than 50%power blockage.A clear-air echo removal scheme is applied to radars in clear-air mode when there is no precipitation reported from observation gauges within the vicinity of the radar.In areas of radar coverage overlap,a distance weighting scheme is applied to assign reflectivity to each grid cell,for multiple vertical levels.This scheme is applied to data from the nearest radar that is unblocked by terrain. Once the data from individual radars have passed through the RDQC,they are merged to create a seamless mosaic for the United States and southern Canada as shown in Figure D.4.A multi-sensor quality control can be applied by post-processing the mosaic to remove any remaining "false echoes”.This technique uses observations of infra-red cloud top temperatures by GOES satellite and surface temperature to create a precipitation/no-precipitation mask.Figure 4 shows the impact of WDT's quality control measures.Upon completing all QC,WDT converts the radar data from its native polar coordinate projection (1 degree x 1.0 km)into a longitude-latitude Cartesian grid (based on the WGS84 datum),at a spatial resolution of 1/3mi'for processing in SPAS. ;aN it ee Pee Tg a)' Figure D.4.(a)Level-II radar mosaic of CONUS radar with no quality control, (b)WDT quality controlled Level-II radar mosaic. 1,wage HAGABSIECreveedowreT-Raga Spnloe 0 2007 Yoreumesd.vee 8 29"re ave fee SPAS conducts further QC on the radar mosaic by infilling areas contaminated by beam blockages. Beam blocked areas are objectively determined by evaluating total storm reflectivity grid which naturally amplifies areas of the SPAS analysis domain suffering from beam blockage as shown in Figure D.5. FINAL DRAFT Page D-8 03/07/14 -zZ- ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO .AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 x 'of Re y sana .yy PPLE geeyteae"-,pike:aye ysLeat;irks dgaeOMSviene eo az = =[i 4001 -.000 $i ser -7.ose I v.01 -2000 :not tae ih anes -nseo fl ro0t 7200 fi nse110000 iat se coe -2000Bilsnee reneilvars ome NcesameBpseesteetarsShePokedbeneCond 'rhGh2001-2000 [|]$501 0.000fisont -amee Wi sees pom sets seme Ble cae ae ginaoeWmeae.°Pl cons «samo [|201 st e00 {9M sont satan jaa)GE 2001 .2.000 i}c201 0 200 9 eset nose oyb)[|Pe ee Figure D.5.Mlustration of SPAS-beam blockage infilling where (a)is raw,blocked radar and (b)is filled for a 42-hour storm event. METHODOLOGY Daily and Supplemental Precipitation to Hourly To obtain one hour temporal resolutions and utilize all gauge data,it is necessary to disaggregate the daily and supplemental precipitation observations into estimated hourly amounts.This process has traditionally been accomplished by distributing (temporally)the precipitation at each daily/supplemental gauge in accordance to a single nearby hourly gauge (Thiessen polygon approach).However,this may introduce biases and not correctly represent hourly precipitation at daily/supplemental gauges situated in-between hourly gauges.Instead,SPAS uses a spatial approach by which the estimated hourly precipitation at each daily and supplemental gauge is governed by a distance weighted algorithm of all nearby true hourly gauges. To disaggregate (i.e.distribute)daily/supplemental gauge data into estimate hourly values,the true hourly gauge data are first evaluated and quality controlled using synoptic maps,nearby gauges, orographic effects,gauge history and other documentation on the storm.Any problems with the hourly data are resolved,and when possible/necessary accumulated hourly values are distributed.If an hourly value is missing,the analyst can choose to either estimate it or leave it missing for SPAS to estimate later based on nearby hourly gauges.At this point in the process,pseudo (hourly) gauges can be added to represent precipitation timing in topographically complex locations,areas with limited/no hourly data or to capture localized convention.To adequately capture the temporal variations of the precipitation,a pseudo hourly gauge is sometimes necessary.A pseudo gauge is created by distributing the precipitation at a co-located daily gauge or by creating a completely new pseudo gauge from other information such as inferences from COOP observation forms,METAR visibility data (if hourly precipitation are not already available),lightning data,satellite data,or FINAL DRAFT Page D-9 03/07/14 zw ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO , AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 radar data.Often radar data are the best/only choice for creating pseudo hourly gauges,but this is done cautiously given the potential differences (over-shooting of the radar beam equating to erroneous precipitation)between radar data and precipitation.In any case,the pseudo hourly gauge is flagged so SPAS only uses it for timing and not magnitude.Care is taken to ensure hourly pseudo gauges represent justifiably important physical and meteorological characteristics before being incorporated into the SPAS database.Although pseudo gauges provide a very important role, their use is kept to a minimum.The importance of insuring the reliability of every hourly gauge cannot be over emphasized.All of the final hourly gauge data,including pseudos,are included in the hourly SPAS precipitation database. Using the hourly SPAS precipitation database,each hourly precipitation value is converted into a percentage that represents the incremental hourly precipitation divided by the total SPP precipitation.The GIS-ready x-y-z file is constructed for each hour and it includes the latitude (x), longitude(y)and the percent of precipitation (z)for a particular hour.Using the GRASS GIS,an inverse-distance-weighting squared (IDW)interpolation technique is applied to each of the hourlyfiles.The result is a continuous grid with percentage values for the entire analysis domain,keeping the grid cells on which the hourly gauge resides faithful to the observed/actual percentage.Since the percentages typically have a high degree of spatial autocorrelation,the spatial interpolation has skill in determining the percentages between gauges,especially since the percentages are somewhat independent of the precipitation magnitude.The end result is a GIS grid for each hour that represents the percentage of the SPP precipitation that fell during that hour. After the hourly percentage grids are generated and QCed for the entire SPP,a program is executed that converts the daily/supplemental gauge data into incremental hourly data.The timing at each of the daily/supplemental gauges is based on (1)the daily/supplemental gauge observation time, (2)daily/supplemental precipitation amount and (3)the series of interpolated hourly percentages extracted from grids (described above). This procedure is detailed in Figure D.6 below.In this example,a supplemental gauge reported 1,40”of precipitation during the storm event and is located equal distance from the three surrounding hourly recording gauges.The procedure steps are: Step 1.For each hour,extract the percent of SPP from the hourly gauge-based percentage at the location of the daily/supplemental gauge.In this example,assume these values are the average of all the hourly gauges. Step 2.Multiply the individual hourly percentages by the total storm precipitation at the daily/supplemental gauge to arrive at estimated hourly precipitation at the daily/supplemental gauge.To make the daily/supplemental accumulated precipitation data faithful to the daily/supplemental observations,it is sometimes FINAL DRAFT Page D-10 03/07/14 ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 necessary to adjust the hourly percentages so they add up to 100%and account for 100%of the daily observed precipitation. Hour Precipitation |ee E Se,SUG.e 6 Total Hourly station 1 0.02 0.12 0.42 0.50 0.10 0.00 1.16 Hourly station 2 0.01 0.15 0.48 0.62 0.05 0.01 1.32) Hourty station 3 0.00 0.18 0.38 0.55 0.20 0.05 1.36 Hour ° ercentoftotal storm precip.a ee:3.4 wna _...6 Total Hourly station 1 2%10%36%43%9%0%100% Hourly station 2 1%11%36%47%4%1%100% Hourly station 3 0%13%28%40%15%4%100% Average 1%12%34%44%9%1%100% Storm total precipitation at daily gauge 1.40 _.- Hour recipitation (estimated)1 2 3 4 6 Total Daily station 0.01 0.16 0.47 0.61 0.13 0.02 1.40 Figure D.6 Example of disaggregation of daily precipitation into estimated hourly precipitation based on three (3)surrounding hourly recording gauges. In cases where the hourly grids do not indicate any precipitation falling during the daily/supplemental gauge observational period,yet the daily/supplemental gauge reported precipitation,the daily/supplemental total precipitation is evenly distributed throughout the hours that make up the observational period;although this does not happen very often,this solution is consistent with NWS procedures.However,the SPAS analyst is notified of these cases in a comprehensive log file,and in most cases they are resolvable,sometimes with a pseudo hourly gauge. GAUGE QUALITY CONTROL Exhaustive quality control measures are taken throughout the SPAS analysis.Below are a few of the most significant QC measures taken. Mass Curve Check A mass curve-based QC-methodology is used to ensure the timing of precipitation at all gauges is consistent with nearby gauges.SPAS groups each gauge with the nearest four gauges (regardless of type)into a single file.These files are subsequently used in software for graphing and evaluation.Unusual characteristics in the mass curve are investigated and the gauge data corrected, if possible and warranted.See Figure E.7 for an example. FINAL DRAFT Page D-11 03/07/14 -Z-,:ALASKAENERG UTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO "AEA 1-029 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 K gag Mass Cune =Hosorn SF]0 |W Besos i 20cnetT T T T T T T e ai}a x a un «nn Wren Bowe Figure D.7 Sample mass curve plot depicting a precipitation gauge with an erroneous observation time (blue line).X-axis is the SPAS index hour and the y-axis is inches.The statistics in the upper left denote gauge type, distance from target gauge (in km),and gauge ID.In this example,the center gauge (blue line)was found to have an observation error/shift of 1 day. Gauge Mis-location Check Although the gauge elevation is not explicitly used in SPAS,it is however used as a means of QCing gauge location.Gauge elevations are compared to a high-resolution 15-second DEM to identify gauges with large differences,which may indicate erroneous longitude and/or latitude values. Co-located Gauge QC Care is also taken to establish the most accurate precipitation depths at all co-located gauges.In general,where a co-located gauge pair exists,the highest precipitation is accepted (if deemed accurate).If the hourly gauge reports higher precipitation,then the co-located daily (or supplemental)is removed from the analysis since it would not add anything to the analysis.Often daily (or supplemental)gauges report greater precipitation than a co-located hourly station since hourly tipping bucket gauges tend to suffer from gauge under-catch,particularly during extreme events,due to loss of precipitation during tips.In these cases the daily/supplemental is retained for the magnitude and the hourly used as a pseudo hourly gauge for timing.Large discrepancies between any co-located gauges are investigated and resolved since SPAS can only utilize a single gauge magnitude at each co-located site. FINAL DRAFT Page D-12 03/07/14 -yw ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 SPATIAL INTERPOLATION At this point the QCed observed hourly and disaggregated daily/supplemental hourly precipitation data are spatially interpolated into hourly precipitation grids.SPAS has three options for conducting the hourly precipitation interpolation,depending on the terrain and availability of radar data,thereby allowing SPAS to be optimized for any particular storm type or location.Figure D.8 depicts the results of each spatial interpolation methodology based on the same precipitation gauge data. ..an t no "ap .+ Cee Ne CP Dees ?Pig"pli acneEEE a |75 taal ;LOPES =Ee fect paetap lao Figure D.8.Depictions of total storm precipitation based on the three SPAS interpolation methodologies for a storm (SPAS #1177,Vanguard,Canada)across flat terrain:(a)no basemap,(b)basemap-aided and (3)radar. Basic Approach The basic approach interpolates the hourly precipitation point values to a grid using an inverse distance weighting squared GIS algorithm.This is sometimes the best choice for convective storms over flat terrain when radar data are not available,yet high gauge density instills reliable precipitation patterns.This approach is rarely used. Basemap Approach Another option includes use of a "basemap”,also known as a climatologically-aided interpolation (Hunter 2005).As noted before,the spatial patterns of the basemap govern the interpolation between points of hourly precipitation estimates,while the actual hourly precipitation values govern the magnitude.This approach to interpolating point data across complex terrain is widely used.In fact,it was used extensively by the NWS during their storm analysis era from the 1940s through the 1970s (USACE 1973,Hansen et al.1988,Corrigan et al.1999). In application,the hourly precipitation gauge values are first normalized by the corresponding grid cell value of the basemap before being interpolated.The normalization allows information and knowledge from the basemap to be transferred to the spatial distribution of the hourly precipitation. Using an IDW squared algorithm,the normalized hourly precipitation values are interpolated to a grid.The resulting grid is then multiplied by the basemap grid to produce the hourly precipitation grid.This is repeated each hour of the storm. FINAL DRAFT Page D-13 03/07/14 -Z- ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AUTHORITY Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 Radar Approach The coupling of SPAS with NEXRAD provides the most accurate method of spatially and temporally distributing precipitation.To increase the accuracy of the results however,quality- controlled precipitation observations are used for calibrating the radar reflectivity to rain rate relationship (Z-R relationship)each hour instead of assuming a default Z-R relationship.Also, spatial variability in the Z-R relationship is accounted for through local bias corrections (described later).The radar approach involves several steps,each briefly described below.The radar approach cannot operate alone -either the basic or basemap approach must be completed before radar data can be incorporated. Z-R Relationship SPAS derives high quality precipitation estimates by relating quality controlled level-II NEXRAD radar reflectivity radar data with quality-controlled precipitation gauge data to calibrate the Z-R (radar reflectivity,Z,and precipitation,R)relationship.Optimizing the Z-R relationship is essential for capturing temporal changes in the Z-R.Most current radar-derived precipitation techniques rely on a constant relationship between radar reflectivity and precipitation rate for a given storm type (e.g.tropical,convective),vertical structure of reflectivity and/or reflectivity magnitudes.This non-linear relationship is described by the Z-R equation below: ZR Relationship SPAS 1218 09/21:2009:20 (GM Radar Scans =12 2 =0.79 80 - -Default --Exponential r 3.0 -25 60+TNoZ=AR°(1)Precipitation(mm)&1TinPrecipitation(in)T=°20- -05 -0.0 T T t q T T q 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 Reflectivity (dBz) Figure D.9.Example SPAS (denoted as "Exponential”)vs.default Z-R relationship (SPAS #1218,Georgia September 2009). FINAL DRAFT Page D-14 03/07/14 ---Z- ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1 407-REP-030714 Where Z is the radar reflectivity (measured in units of dBZ),R is the precipitation (precipitation) rate (millimeters per hour),A is the "multiplicative coefficient”and b is the "power coefficient”. Both A and b are directly related to the rain drop size distribution (DSD)and rain drop number distribution (DND)within a cloud (Martner and Dubovskiy 2005).The variability in the results of Z versus R is a direct result of differing DSD,DND and air mass characteristics (Dickens 2003). The DSD and DND are determined by complex interactions of microphysical processes that fluctuate regionally,seasonally,daily,hourly,and even within the same cloud.For these reasons, SPAS calculates an optimized Z-R relationship across the analysis domain each hour,based on observed precipitation rates and radar reflectivity (see Figure D.9). The National Weather Service (NWS)utilizes different default Z-R algorithms,depending on the type of precipitation event,to estimate precipitation from NEXRAD radar reflectivity data across the United States (see Figure D.10)(Baeck and Smith 1998 and Hunter 1999).A default Z-R relationship of Z =300R'*is the primary algorithm used throughout the continental U.S.However, it is widely known that this,compared to unadjusted radar-aided estimates of precipitation,suffers from deficiencies that may lead to significant over or under-estimation of precipitation. |RELATIONSHIP i|Optimum for:||Also recommended for: Marshall-Palmer General stratiform precipitation(z=200R"*) East-Cool Stratiform Winter stratiform precipitation -east of Orographic rain -East(z=130R*°)continental divide West-Cool Stratiform Winter stratiform precipitation -west of Orographic rain -West(z=75R*°)continental divide WSR-88D Convective Summer deep convection Other non-tropical(z=300R"*)convection Rosenfeld Tropical Tropical convective systems(z=250R*”) Figure D.10.Commonly used Z-R algorithms used by the NWS. Instead of adopting a standard Z-R,SPAS utilizes a least squares fit procedure for optimizing the Z-R relationship each hour of the SPP.The process begins by determining if sufficient (minimum 12)observed hourly precipitation and radar data pairs are available to compute a reliable Z-R.If insufficient (<12)gauge pairs are available,then SPAS adopts the previous hour Z-R relationship, if available,or applies a user-defined default Z-R algorithm from Figure 9.If sufficient data are available,the one hour sum of NEXRAD reflectivity (Z)is related to the 1-hour precipitation at each gauge.A least-squares-fit exponential function using the data points is computed.The resulting best-fit,one hour-based Z-R is subjected to several tests to determine if the Z-R relationship and its resulting precipitation rates are within a certain tolerance based on the R-squared fit measure and difference between the derived and default Z-R precipitation results. FINAL DRAFT Page D-15 03/07/14 Zz SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO arena Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1 407-REP-03071 4 Experience has shown the actual Z-R versus the default Z-R can be significantly different (Figure D.11).These Z-R relationships vary by storm type and location.A standard output of all SPAS analyses utilizing NEXRAD includes a file with each hour's adjusted Z-R relationship as calculated through the SPAS program.301Precipitation(mm)Q 100 200 300 400 500 600 Reflectivity (dBZ) Figure D.11.Comparison of the SPAS optimized hourly Z-R relationships (black lines)versus a default Z=75R2.0 Z-R relationship (red line)for a period of 99 hours for a storm over southern California. Radar-aided Hourly Precipitation Grids Once a mathematically optimized hourly Z-R relationship is determined,it is applied to the total hourly Z grid to compute an initial precipitation rate (inches/hour)at each grid cell.To account for spatial differences in the Z-R relationship,SPAS computes residuals,the difference between the initial precipitation analysis (via the Z-R equation)and the actual "ground truth”precipitation (observed -initial analysis),at each gauge.The point residuals,also referred to as local biases,are normalized and interpolated to a.residual grid using an inverse distance squared weighting algorithm.A radar-based hourly precipitation grid is created by adding the residual grid to the initial grid;this allows the precipitation at the grid cells for which gauges are "on”to be true and faithful to the gauge measurement.The pre-final radar-aided precipitation grid is subject to some final,visual QC checks to ensure the precipitation patterns are consistent with the terrain;these checks are particularly important in areas of complex terrain where even QCed radar data can be unreliable.The next incremental improvement with SPAS program will come as the NEXRAD radar sites are upgraded to dual-polarimetric capability. FINAL DRAFT Page D-16 03/07/14 -yw ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 Radar-and Basemap-Aided Hourly Precipitation Grids At this stage of the radar approach,a radar-and basemap-aided hourly precipitation grid exists for each hour.At locations with precipitation gauges,the grids are equal,however elsewhere the grids can vary for a number of reasons.For instance,the basemap-aided hourly precipitation grid may depict heavy precipitation in an area of complex terrain,blocked by the radar,whereas the radar- aided hourly precipitation grid may suggest little,if any,precipitation fell in the same area. Similarly,the radar-aided hourly precipitation grid may depict an area of heavy precipitation in flat terrain that the basemap-approach missed since the area of heavy precipitation occurred in an area without gauges.SPAS uses an algorithm to compute the hourly precipitation at each pixel given the two results.Areas that are completely blocked from a radar signal are accounted for with the basemap-aided results (discussed earlier).Precipitation in areas with orographically effective terrain and reliable radar data are governed by a blend of the basemap-and radar-aided precipitation.Elsewhere,the radar-aided precipitation is used exclusively.This blended approach has proven effective for resolving precipitation in complex terrain,yet retaining accurate radar- aided precipitation across areas where radar data are reliable.Figure D.12 illustrates the evolution of final precipitation from radar reflectivity in an area of complex terrain in southern California. __Miews ontng at senuary 9,2006 1002Precipitationtinehee) o Ly . | °mt ee letoteGateeSsaeryt 7 a EEE eaeJ.Ah ae .im .oo oN ate oe,thoes entang at Jaevanry 9.200%1800 2 :ween _®..am 5 43-"e r 49 : a>2 .:f:.a =x =ai mney (ere pee ry bea.|c)==oa =™d) Figure D.12.A series of maps depicting 1-hour of precipitation utilizing (a)inverse distance weighting of gauge precipitation,(b)gauge data together with a climatologically-aided interpolation scheme,(c)default Z-R radar- estimated interpolation (no gauge correction)and (d)SPAS precipitation for a January 2005 storm in southern California,USA. FINAL DRAFT Page D-17 03/07/14 -y ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 SPAS versus Gauge Precipitation Performance measures are computed and evaluated each hour to detect errors and inconsistencies in the analysis.The measures include:hourly Z-R coefficients,observed hourly maximum precipitation,maximum gridded precipitation,hourly bias,hourly mean absolute error (MAE),root mean square error (RMSE),and hourly coefficient of determination (1°). 2A Relationship SPAS 1218 Observed vs Predicted SPAS 1218 99/21 (2009-04 GMT)Radar Scant 9 12220.82 Be 5 -Detaut L 30 °Exponential °"oT P25 a 4 60 4 b 20 ch 4==é E == ri f i404 ;BZ ed:r 15 & i é Z Ss4 r 10 - 20 4 "wo3ros e4os 04 0.0 T T T T T T T T T 7 ¥J t F 0.0 os 10 15 20 25 3.0 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 Reflectivity (dBz)Observed (in) Figure D.13.Z-R plot (a),where the blue line is the SPAS derived Z-R and the black line is the default Z-R,and the (b)associated observed versus SPAS scatter plot at gauge locations. Comparing SPAS-calculated precipitation (Rspas)to observed point precipitation depths at the gauge locations provides an objective measure of the consistency,accuracy and bias.Generally speaking SPAS is usually within 5%of the observed precipitation (see Figure D.13).Less-than-perfect correlations between SPAS precipitation depths and observed precipitation at gauged locations could be the result of any number of issues,including: e Point versus area:A rain gauge observation represents a much smaller area than the area sampled by the radar.The area that the radar is sampling is approximately 1 km',whereas a standard rain gauge has an opening 8 inches in diameter,hence it only samples approximately 8.0x10°km'.Furthermore,the radar data represents an average reflectivity (Z)over the grid cell,when in fact the reflectivity can vary across the 1 km”grid cell. Therefore,comparing a grid cell radar derived precipitation value to a gauge (point) precipitation depth measured may vary. e Precipitation gauge under-catch:Although we consider gauge data "ground truth,”we recognize gauges themselves suffer from inaccuracies.Precipitation gauges,shielded and FINAL DRAFT Page D-18 03/07/14 Zw ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 unshielded,inherently underestimate total precipitation due to local airflow,wind under- catch,wetting,and evaporation.The wind under-catch errors are usually around 5%but can be as large as 40%in high winds (Guo etal.2001,Duchon and Essenberg 2001,Ciach 2003,Tokay et al.2010).Tipping buckets miss a small amount of precipitation during each tip of the bucket due to the bucket travel and tip time.As precipitation intensities increase, the volumetric loss of precipitation due to tipping tends to increase.Smaller tipping buckets can have higher volumetric losses due to higher tip frequencies,but on the other hand capture higher precision timing. e Radar Calibration:NEXRAD radars calibrate reflectivity every volume scan,using an internally generated test.The test determines changes in internal variables such as beam power and path loss of the receiver signal processor since the last off-line calibration.If this value becomes large,it is likely that there is a radar calibration error that will translate into less reliable precipitation estimates.The calibration test is supposed to maintain a reflectivity precision of 1 dBZ.A 1 dBZ error can result in an error of up to 17%in Ropas using the default Z-R relationship Z=300R'"*.Higher calibration errors will result in higher Rspas errors.However,by performing correlations each hour,the calibration issue is minimized in SPAS. e Attenuation:Attenuation is the reduction in power of the radar beams'energy as it travels from the antenna to the target and back.It is caused by the absorption and the scattering of power from the beam by precipitation.Attenuation can result in errors in Z as large as 1 dBZ especially when the radar beam is sampling a large area of heavy precipitation.In some cases,storm precipitation is so intense (>12 inches/hour)that individual storm cells become "opaque”and the radar beam is totally attenuated.Armed with sufficient gauge data however,SPAS will overcome attenuation issues. e Range effects:The curvature of the Earth and radar beam refraction result in the radar beam becoming more elevated above the surface with increasing range.With the increased elevation of the radar beam comes a decrease in Z values due to the radar beam not sampling the main precipitation portion of the cloud (i.e."over topping”the precipitation and/or cloud altogether).Additionally,as the radar beam gets further from the radar,it naturally samples a larger and larger area,therefore amplifying point versus area differences (described above). e Radar Beam Occultation/Ground Clutter:Radar occultation (beam blockage)results when the radar beam's energy intersects terrain features as depicted in Figure D.14.The result is an increase in radar reflectivity values that can result in higher than normal precipitation estimates.The WDT processing algorithms account for these issues,but SPAS FINAL DRAFT Page D-19 03/07/14 Zw ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 uses GIS spatial interpolation functions to infill areas suffering from poor or no radar coverage. e Anomalous Propagation (AP):AP is false reflectivity echoes produced by unusual rates of refraction in the atmosphere.WDT algorithms remove most of the AP and false echoes, however in extreme cases the air near the ground may be so cold and dense that a radar beam that starts out moving upward is bent all the way down to the ground.This produces erroneously strong echoes at large distances from the radar.Again,equipped with sufficient gauge data,the SPAS bias corrections will overcome AP issues. Shielding Filling Ducting 'ed AnomalousSe Figure D.14 Depiction of radar artifacts.(Source:Wikipedia) Drizzle Qverhaoting Orographic RadarEnhancement SPAS is designed to overcome many of these short-comings by carefully using radar data for defining the spatial patterns and relative magnitudes of precipitation,but allowing measured precipitation values ("ground truth”)at gauges to govern the magnitude.When absolutely necessary,the observed precipitation values at gauges are nudged up (or down)to force SPAS results to be consistent with observed gauge values.Nudging gauge precipitation values helps to promote better consistency between the gauge value and the gridcell value,even though these two values sometimes should not be the same since they are sampling different area sizes.For reasons discussed in the "SPAS versus Gauge Precipitation”section,the gauge value and gridcell value can vary.Plus,SPAS is designed to toss observed individual hourly values that are grossly inconsistent with radar data,hence driving a difference between the gauge and gridcell.In general,when the gauge and gridcell value differ by more than 15%and/or 0.50 inches,and the gauge data have been validated,then it is justified to artificially increase or decrease slightly the observed gauge value to "force”SPAS to derive a gridcell value equal to the observed value.Sometimes simply shifting the gauge location to an adjacent gridcell resolves the problems.Regardless,a large gauge versus gridcell difference is a "red flag”and sometimes the result of an erroneous gauge value or a mis- FINAL DRAFT Page D-20 03/07/14 yw ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 located gauge,but in some cases the difference can only be resolved by altering the precipitation value. Before results are finalized,a precipitation intensity check is conducted to ensure the spatial patterns and magnitudes of the maximum storm intensities at 1-,6-,12-,etc.hours are consistent with surrounding gauges and published reports.Any erroneous data are corrected and SPAS re-run. Considering all of the QA/QC checks in SPAS,it typically requires 5-15 basemap SPAS runs and, if radar data are available,another 5-15 radar-aided runs,to arrive at the final output. Test Cases To check the accuracy of the DAD software,three test cases were evaluated. "Pyramidville”Storm The first test was that of a theoretical storm with a pyramid shaped isohyetal pattern.This case was called the Pyramidville storm.It contained 361 hourly stations,each occupying a single grid cell. The configuration of the Pyramidville storm (see Figure D.15)allowed for uncomplicated and accurate calculation of the analytical DA truth independent of the DAD software.The main motivation of this case was to verify that the DAD software was properly computing the area sizes and average depths. Storm center:39°N 104°W Duration:10-hours Maximum grid cell precipitation:1.00” Grid cell resolution:0.06 sq.-miles (361 total cells) Total storm size:23.11 sq-miles Distribution of precipitation: Hour 1:Storm drops 0.10”at center (area 0.06 sq-miles) Hour 2:Storm drops 0.10”over center grid cell AND over one cell width around hour 1 center Hours 3-10: 1.Storm drops 0.10”per hour at previously wet area,plus one cell width around previously wet area 2.Area analyzed at every 0.10” 3.Analysis resolution:15-sec ( .25 square miles)NAwPYWNSTFINAL DRAFT Page D-21 03/07/14 Ze ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO (AUTHORITY Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 dt tae ae a ate ee Figure D.15 "Pyramidville”Total precipitation.Center =1.00”,Outside edge =0.10”. The analytical truth was calculated independent of the DAD software,and then compared to the DAD output.The DAD software results were equal to the truth,thus demonstrating that the DA estimates were properly calculated (Figure D.16). Depth-Area Curves for 10-hr Storm "Pyramidville"-39.5N 104.5W &39N 104W 100.0000 2 QO [e #) ->10.0000 a} £ oc ¢DAD Software 0 _D Analytical truth 2 <4.0000 Qo 0.1000 :+ 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 Maximum Average Precipitation Depth (inches) Figure D.16 10-hour DA results for "Pyramidville”;truth vs.output from DAD software. FINAL DRAFT Page D-22 03/07/14 ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO MEAD Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 The Pyramidville storm was then changed such that the mass curve and spatial interpolation methods would be stressed.Test cases included: e Two-centers,each center with 361 hourly stations e A single center with 36 hourly stations,0 daily stations e A single center with 3 hourly stations and 33 daily stations As expected,results began shifting from the 'truth,'but minimally and within the expected uncertainty. Ritter,lowa Storm,June 7,1953 Ritter,Iowa was chosen as a test case for a number of reasons.The NWS had completed a storm analysis,with available DAD values for comparison.The storm occurred over relatively flat terrain,so orographics were not an issue.An extensive "bucket survey”provided a great number of additional observations from this event.Of the hundreds of additional reports,about 30 of the most accurate reports were included in the DAD analysis. The DAD software results are very similar to the NWS DAD values (Table D.2). Table D.2.The percent difference [((AWA-NWS)/NWS]between the AWA DA results and those published by the NWS for the 1953 Ritter,lowa storm. °%Difference Duration (hours) Area (sq.mi.)6 12 24 total 10 -15%-7%2%2% 100 -7%-6%1%1% 200 2%0%9%9% 1000 -6%-7%4%4% 5000 -13%-8%2%2% 10000 -14%-6%0%0% Westfield,Massachusetts Storm,August 8,1955 Westfield,Massachusetts was also chosen as a test case for a number of reasons.It is a probable maximum precipitation (PMP)driver for the northeastern United States.Also,the Westfield storm was analyzed by the NWS and the DAD values are available for comparison.Although this case proved to be more challenging than any of the others,the final results are very similar to those published by the NWS (Table D.3). FINAL DRAFT Page D-23 03/07/14 ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 Table D.3.The percent difference [AWA-NWS)/NWS]between the AWA DA results and those published by the NWS for the 1955 Westfield,Massachusetts storm. %Difference Duration (hours) Area (sq.mi.)6 12 24 36 48 60 total 10 2%3%0%1%-1%0%2% 100 -5%2%4%-2%-6%-4%-3% 200 -6%1%1%-4%-7%-5%-5% 1000 -4%-2%1%-6%-7%-6%-3% 5000 3%2%-3%-3%-5%-5%0% 10000 4%9%-5%-4%-7%-5%1% 20000 7%12%-6%-3%-4%-3%3% The primary components of SPAS are:storm search,data extraction,quality control (QC), conversion of daily precipitation data into estimated hourly data,hourly and total storm precipitation grids/maps and a complete storm-centered DAD analysis. OUTPUT Armed with accurate,high-resolution precipitation grids,a variety of customized output can be created (see Figures D.17A-D).Among the most useful outputs are sub-hourly precipitation grids for input into hydrologic models.Sub-hourly (i.e.5-minute)precipitation grids are created by applying the appropriate optimized hourly Z-R (scaled down to be applicable for instantaneous Z) to each of the individual 5-minute radar scans;5-minutes is often the native scan rate of the radar in the US.Once the scaled Z-R is applied to each radar scan,the resulting precipitation is summed up. The proportion of each 5-minute precipitation to the total 1-hour radar-aided precipitation is calculated.Each 5-minute proportion (%)is then applied to the quality controlled,bias corrected 1-hour total precipitation (created above)to arrive at the final 5-minute precipitation for each scan. This technique ensures the sum of 5-minute precipitation equals that of the quality controlled,bias corrected 1-hour total precipitation derived initially. . Depth-area-duration (DAD)tables/plots,shown in Figure D.17d,are computed using a highly- computational extension to SPAS.DADs provide an objective three dimensional (magnitude,area size,and duration)perspective of a storms'precipitation.SPAS DADs are computed using the procedures outlined by the NWS Technical Paper 1 (1946). FINAL DRAFT Page D-24 ,03/07/14 ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 Totel Raintan July 12-13,2004 Storm if)'4 Storm 1048 -Hokah,MN August 18 -August 21,2007 MAXIMUM AVERAGE DEPTH OF PRECIPITATION (INCHES)'Duration (hours)Area fr?)!3 t 2 18 24 x 4a fA ToaoaPriv7TSTiewewortsiy1600too12120483007584THATTTCOED. 10 2120 48800 74 1013.88 18.98 S17 7.17po]212 4530 082 tOAZ 12 48D SHAS C8*”au 44 OH TL1020000430033O37«61182 132713 8200200-3 e770 00m mG Ww wR 0 19 Sat S74 83H 10k S213 7Hm0179S47a3tOt180901(1323013304.008 183-2000 4 OTST 111200ass25543818acOM8OSS0785.000 sry 0202S O7B3 IDOE0.00 |a 12 4 520 731 753 75820,000 |041 ES}184 32 37453 813803 F SPAS 61048 DAD Curves (Zone t)hee Hokah,MN August 16 (0600 Z)-21 (1000 Z),2007100,008 Sher --thowr 0.908 =how vite wea wore 'Total Rainfall (25-hours)198 --norMagma.AZ 2008 Storm +7Srorm#4051 July 10 (1800Z)to 11 (1900 2}.2008 Fy oto oes ier <100aar4©Gouging Seasiens ---T or ©Oey ¢Hore 'fF "*|©Mery 8 Ropementa N A CS |”ane Precipitation (inches)\4 Gs 0c-0 60 $1 97-200 fi 201-550 BB ass.so0 'y +Tn0urHost100GB292-220 MP ost.a00 sors * .if t Po Freee Eee Sao eT,Comm anwne me e 20]OG Tota sterm Figure D.17,Various examples of SPAS output,including (a)total storm map and its associated (b)basin average precipitation time series,(c)total storm precipitation map,(d)depth-area-duration (DAD)table and plot. SUMMARY Grounded on years of scientific research with a demonstrated reliability in post-storm analyses, SPAS is a hydro-meteorological tool that provides accurate precipitation analyses for a variety of applications.SPAS has the ability to compute precise and accurate results by using sophisticated timing algorithms,"basemaps”,a variety of precipitation data and most importantly NEXRAD weather radar data (if available).The approach taken by SPAS relies on hourly,daily and FINAL DRAFT Page D-25 03/07/14 Ze| ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1407-REP-030714 supplemental precipitation gauge observations to provide quantification of the precipitation amounts while relying on basemaps and NEXRAD data (if available)to provide the spatial distribution of precipitation between precipitation gauge sites.By determining the most appropriate coefficients for the Z-R equation on an hourly basis,the approach anchors the precipitation amounts to accepted precipitation gauge data while using the NEXRAD data to distribute precipitation between precipitation gauges for each hour of the storm.Hourly Z-R coefficient computations address changes in the cloud microphysics and storm characteristics as the storm evolves.Areas suffering from limited or no radar coverage are estimated using the spatial patterns and magnitudes of the independently created basemap precipitation grids.Although largely automated,SPAS is flexible enough to allow hydro-meteorologists to make important adjustments and adapt to any storm situation. REFERENCES Baeck M.L.,Smith J.A.,1998:"Precipitation Estimation by the WSR-88D for Heavy Precipitation Events”,Weather and Forecasting:Vol.13,No.2,pp.416-436. Ciach,G.J.,2003:Local Random Errors in Tipping-Bucket Rain Gauge Measurements.J.Atmos. Oceanic Technol.,20,752-759. Corps of Engineers,U.S.Army,1945-1973:Storm Rainfall in the United States,Depth-Area- 'Duration Data.Office of Chief of Engineers,Washington,D.C. Corrigan,P.,Fenn,D.D.,Kluck,D.R.,and J.L.Vogel,1999:Probable Maximum Precipitation Estimates for California.Hydrometeorological Report No.59,U.S.National Weather Service,National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,U.S.Department of Commerce,Silver Spring,MD,392 pp. Dickens,J.,2003:"On the Retrieval of Drop Size Distribution by Vertically Pointing Radar”, American Meteorological Society 32nd Radar Meteorology Conference,Albuquerque,NM, October 2005. Duchon,C.E.,and G.R.Essenberg,2001:Comparative Precipitation Observations from Pit and Above Ground Rain Gauges with and without Wind Shields,Water Resources Research, Vol.37,N.12,3253-3263. Faulkner,E.,T.Hampton,R.M.Rudolph,and Tomlinson,E.M.,2004:Technological Updates for PMP and PMF -Can They Provide Value for Dam Safety Improvements?Association of State Dam Safety Officials Annual Conference,Phoenix,Arizona,September 26-30,2004. Guo,J.C.Y.,Urbonas,B.,and Stewart,K.,2001:Rain Catch under Wind and Vegetal Effects. ASCE,Journal of Hydrologic Engineering,Vol.6,No.1. FINAL DRAFT Page D-26 03/07/14 -yw ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1 407-REP-030714 Hansen,E.M.,Fenn,D.D.,Schreiner,L.C.,Stodt,R.W.,and J.F.,Miller,1988:Probable Maximum Precipitation Estimates,United States between the Continental Divide and the103Meridian,Hydrometeorological Report Number 55A,National weather Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association,U.S.Dept of Commerce,Silver Spring, MD,242 pp. Hunter,R.D.and R.K.Meentemeyer,2005:Climatologically Aided Mapping of Daily Precipitation and Temperature,Journal ofApplied Meteorology,October 2005,Vol.44,pp. 1501-1510. Hunter,S.M.,1999:Determining WSR-88D Precipitation Algorithm Performance Using The Stage III Precipitation Processing System,Next Generation Weather Radar Program,WSR-88D Operational Support Facility,Norman,OK. Lakshmanan,V.and M.Valente,2004:Quality control of radar reflectivity data using satellite data and surface observations,20th Int'!Conf.on Inter.Inf.Proc.Sys.(IIPS)for Meteor., Ocean.,and Hydr.,Amer.Meteor.Soc.,Seattle,CD-ROM,12.2. Martner,B.E,and V.Dubovskiy,2005:Z-R Relations from Raindrop Disdrometers:Sensitivity To Regression Methods And DSD Data Refinements,32nd Radar Meteorology Conference, Albuquerque,NM,October,2005 Tokay,A.,P.G.Bashor,and V.L.McDowell,2010:Comparison of Rain Gauge Measurements in the Mid-Atlantic Region.J.Hydrometeor.,11,553-565. Tomlinson,E.M.,W.D.Kappel,T.W.Parzybok,B.Rappolt,2006:Use of NEXRAD Weather Radar Data with the Storm Precipitation Analysis System (SPAS)to Provide High Spatial Resolution Hourly Precipitation Analyses for Runoff Model Calibration and Validation, ASDSO Annual Conference,Boston,MA. Tomlinson,E.M.,and T.W.Parzybok,2004:Storm Precipitation Analysis System (SPAS), proceedings of Association of Dam Safety Officials Annual Conference,Technical Session II,Phoenix,Arizona. Tomlinson,E.M.,R.A.Williams,and T.W.Parzybok,September 2003:Site-Specific Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP)Study for the Great Sacandaga Lake /Stewarts Bridge Drainage Basin,Prepared for Reliant Energy Corporation,Liverpool,New York. Tomlinson,E.M.,R.A.Williams,and T.W.Parzybok,September 2003:Site-Specific Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP)Study for the Cherry Creek Drainage Basin,Prepared for the Colorado Water Conservation Board,Denver,CO. Tomlinson,E.M.,Kappel W.D.,Parzybok,T.W.,Hultstrand,D.,Muhlestein,G.,and B.Rappolt, May 2008:Site-Specific Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP)Study for the Wanahoo Drainage Basin,Prepared for Olsson Associates,Omaha,Nebraska. FINAL DRAFT Page D-27 03/07/14 -yw ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA 1.022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.1 3-1 407-REP-03071 4 Tomlinson,E.M.,Kappel W.D.,Parzybok,T.W.,Hultstrand,D.,Muhlestein,G.,and B.Rappolt, June 2008:Site-Specific Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP)Study for the Blenheim Gilboa Drainage Basin,Prepared for New York Power Authority,White Plains,NY. Tomlinson,E.M.,Kappel W.D.,and T.W.Parzybok,February 2008:Site-Specific Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP)Study for the Magma FRS Drainage Basin,Prepared for AMEC,Tucson,Arizona. Tomlinson,E.M.,Kappel W.D.,Parzybok,T.W.,Hultstrand,D.,Muhlestein,G.,and P.Sutter, December 2008:Statewide Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP)Study for the state of Nebraska,Prepared for Nebraska Dam Safety,Omaha,Nebraska. Tomlinson,E.M.,Kappel,W.D.,and Tye W.Parzybok,July 2009:Site-Specific Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP)Study for the Scoggins Dam Drainage Basin,Oregon. Tomlinson,E.M.,Kappel,W.D.,and Tye W.Parzybok,February 2009:Site-Specific Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP)Study for the Tuxedo Lake Drainage Basin,New York. Tomlinson,E.M.,Kappel,W.D.,and Tye W.Parzybok,February 2010:Site-Specific Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP)Study for the Magma FRS Drainage Basin,Arizona. Tomlinson,E.M.,Kappel W.D.,Parzybok,T.W.,Hultstrand,D.M.,Muhlestein,G.A.,March 2011: Site-Specific Probable Maximum Precipitation Study for the Tarrant Regional Water District,Prepared for Tarrant Regional Water District,Fort Worth,Texas. Tomlinson,E.M.,Kappel,W.D.,Hultstrand,D.M.,Muhlestein,G.A.,and T.W.Parzybok, November 2011:Site-Specific Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP)Study for the Lewis River basin,Washington State. Tomlinson,E.M.,Kappel,W.D.,Hultstrand,D.M.,Muhlestein,G.A.,and T.W.Parzybok, December 2011:Site-Specific Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP)Study for the Brassua Dam basin,Maine. U.S.Weather Bureau,1946:Manual for Depth-Area-Duration analysis of storm precipitation. Cooperative Studies Technical Paper No.1,U.S.Department of Commerce,Weather Bureau,Washington,D.C.,73pp. FINAL DRAFT Page D-28 03/07/14 -Z- ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1402-REP-031414Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. Appendix B Intermediate Flood Routing Technical Memorandum 14-08-TM Zz SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. Technical Memorandum 14-08-TM v1.0 Susitna-Watana Hydroelectric Project Intermediate Flood Routing FINAL DRAFT AEA11-022 preemre ae TS adGeAa : Prepared for:Prepared by:Alaska Energy Authority MWH 813 West Northern Lights Blvd.1835 South Bragaw St.,Suite 350 Anchorage,AK 99503 Anchorage,AK 99508 May 2014 L_wa>ALASKA 13-1408-TM-022814 (E>ENERGY AUTHORITY [This page intentionally blank.] The following individuals have been directly responsible for the.preparation,review and approval of this Technical Memorandum. Prepared by: John Haapala,P.E.,Senior Hydrologic/Hydraulic Engineer Reviewed by: Julie Stanaszek,Senior Civil Engineer Approved by: Howard Lee,P.E.,Sr.Technical Reviewer Approved by: Brian Sadden,Project Manager Disclaimer This document was preparedfor the exclusive use ofAEA and MWH as part of the engineering studies for the Susitna-Watana Hydroelectric Project,FERC Project No.14241,and contains information from MWH which may be confidential or proprietary.Any unauthorized use of the information contained herein is strictly prohibited and MWH shall not be liable for any use outside the intended and approved purpose. [This page intentionally blank.] Za ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1408-TM-022814 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1.INTRODUCTION we ccccccee ence ee eneeeeeeene nena nacnanascneecnanscnascnacesceesoonsssosessassscessconsessossouanscens 1 2.PEAK FLOW FREQUENCY .......ccccecsccccssssescescseesceneescneeseconansecconeenensesesensusesssssececssassoesers 3 2.1 Peak Annual FIOWS ........cccccsscccssccessesesecersnseceoeseeseeensessenecessesenaeescasaseasessaeeceacesesecenssecnsecenssensseseaasens 3 2.2 50-Year Annual Flood Peak...cscccssesssscsecsscsessstcceseeseseceseseonsessaeceesasseessesseeessnsassrsessanseaseneses 4 2.3 50-Year Seasonal Flood Peak .......ccsssssccssesstssssecseessesssessecsesesseccescassessessssssnsssacesaessaecaeeceeesesessaeseaees 5 3.FLOOD VOLUME FREQUENCYuu....ccccseseccnseecaseeseneraavenseecseasccesscsesecnensecsssconessncesocnrecssres 8 3.1 50-Year Annual Flood Volume........ccesssssstescccescsessscssscecesesessseseseecesesesesssessecscsseseseseeesesseseasseeesaees 8 3.2 50-Year July -September Flood Volume...sssessscscencesecsseseceeesseseeeseseaseeessceaesessaaeensseesenssesens 8 4.50-YEAR FLOOD INFLOW HYDROGRAPHSG..........cccsessscescsssecsesssecssssssssesssccsnesssonseesens 10 4.1 50-Year Annual Flood Hydrograph .........csscscsssssssecseesessssseeeesscccsesssssssssesesteessserseseaassaeesseessases 10 4.2 50-Year Seasonal Flood Hydrograph.........ee eeesessesececsceceeececeseseeeeeseesoneesssesacensseeeeasesaeenssneseeseneas 11 5.RESULTS OF ALTERNATIVE ROUTINGS OF THE 50-YEAR FLOOD .........cssssccesseees 12 5.1 Diversion Flood Routing (During Construction)........ssecseseseeeeeeeeiseneaneneeneeteneeateaeseesseessennees 12 5.1.1 Diversion Facilities DeScription ............seseesscseeecosseoessseeeeesesteecenseaceseeeneeesseseetsanentsseeeas 12 5.1.2 Diversion Flood Routing Results...csscssessecsceceececessseenesnsssecesssceseeseseessstsosssnessease 12 5.2 50-Year Surcharge Storage Flood Routings (During Operation)secsussssssennsnsesetie soseseseeeeseeeeseeons 13 5.3 Comparison with 1980's Results 0...cssssssssessssscerssensscsessseeescssceessssccesesseeseetenseeseeseeteetseseensneeses 17 BIBLIOGRAPHY ....cceesscccesecsceccneceeeceneceneesnaesceeeecaasseaesecouseaeaeeneaseseassnonsesssesnenssuaasecenensanreas 19 FINAL DRAFT Page i May 2014 -yzw ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1408-TM-022814 List of Tables Table 1 Peak Annual Instantaneous Flows for the Susitna River at Gold Creek ........ccesssssseeeseeee 3 Table 2 Calculated Flood Frequency for the Susitna River at Gold Creek...ceesssessessesseeseenes 40 Table 3 Estimated Peak Annual Flows in the Susitna River at Watana Dam ..........ccscsssssssseeeeees 5 Table 4 Reservoir Elevation -Capacity Data ............:ccsccssssssssssscsetessccesscseassnsecsscssseeseessesesseeseeenes 15 Table 5 Flood Routing Results...ccsscsssssssssccseeseseceseessseeeessesseesssscesssesreesseeseessasesesseessssensnenees 16 Table 6 Summary of 1985 Flood Routing Study Results...cessssccsscccscseesseesssensceeeeseeeseeees 18 List of Figures Figure 1 Reservoir Elevation Frequency ............sssssssssessssccesessceessceeescesseseessssseesesersesseseeessnseneseneesees 6 Figure 2 Watana Reservoir July -September Peak 1-Day Average Inflows...esesesssesssesneeeees 7 Figure 3 50-Year Annual Flood Hydrograph ..0....eesesseesscecessceeececessceecsecceeeecenseaseeceeseasseesarees 10 Figure 4 50-Year July -September Flood Hydrograph 0...eesesseseesscsecceseesceecessserssscensenseeseees 11 Figure 5 Run 6 Inflow,Outflow,and Reservoir Level .........ccccccccsscssssssessssssscsscscssssseseecesssseceeseee 17 List of Exhibits Exhibit 1 Watana Reservoir Daily Inflows FINAL DRAFT Page ii May 2014 -a-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1408-TM-022814 1.INTRODUCTION The primary purpose of this Technical Memorandum (TM)is to determine a range of potential operating scenarios for the 50-year flood (i.e.the 2%annual exceedance probability flood)from which a selected Project operation plan can be made with consideration of the tradeoffs in related factors. Factors that may be considered in the tradeoff evaluation include the low-level outlet works (LLOW) capacity versus the amount of reservoir storage used to attenuate the peak outflow during large flood events.Greater LLOW capacity would result in a smaller reservoir pool allocated to flood control storage and therefore a lower dam crest elevation.Increased LLOW capacity would result in a slight reduction in generation as less flood surcharge storage would be routed through the powerhouse. Downstream fluvial geomorphology and other environmental considerations may also factor into the flood surcharge operation.Also,the capability to pass a given discharge,such as the 2-year flood peak flow of 38,500 cfs indicated in Table 3 below,may be a factor in the selection of LLOW valve capacity. A Probable Maximum Flood (PMF)study is being performed for the Susitna-Watana Hydroelectric Project (Project)by MWH under NTP 13.The PMF is the spillway design flood for Watana Dam,and as such the inflow PMF routed through the reservoir will ultimately determine the required capacity of the spillway,the total outflow capability at Watana Dam,the reservoir surcharge storage between the maximum normal pool level and the maximum flood pool level,and the final dam crest level that assures the flood safety of the dam. To limit the frequency of spillway operation,which may result in undesirable downstream gas supersaturation,an operating criterion is being adopted such that the Project should be able to pass floods up to the 50-year flood without opening the spillway gates.Facilities that will be used to pass the 50-year flood include the powerhouse turbines and the fixed-cone valves in the LLOW as well as surcharge storage in the reservoir above the maximum normal operating level at El 2050.Floods larger than the 50-year flood ranging up to the PMF would require usage of the main spillway in addition to the LLOW. The 50-year construction diversion flood was also routed with a limiting maximum reservoir level at El 1553,which is planned to be the top elevation of the impervious core of the upstream cofferdam. FINAL DRAFT Page 1 of 21 May 2014 a .ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1408-TM-022814Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. Results of the 50-year construction diversion flood routing provided herein will show whether there is any significant attenuation of the flood due to storage behind the cofferdam. FINAL DRAFT Page 2 of 21 May 2014 -za-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1408-TM-022814Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. 2.PEAK FLOW FREQUENCY |2.1 Peak Annual Flows The most frequently referenced parameter for a rare flow event such as the 50-year flood is the peak flow.Peak annual flows in the Susitna River near the Project site have been recorded by the USGS at Gold Creek,as summarized in Table 1.Peak flow rates provided by the USGS include both average daily values and instantaneous peaks. Peak flows for return periods up to 10,000 years were estimated for the Susitna River at Gold Creek. Peak flows were estimated for various return periods by fitting recorded peak flow data with a Log Pearson Type III distribution according to methods in Bulletin 17B ACWD,1982).Estimated peak annual flows for the Susitna River at Gold Creek are presented in Table 2. Table 1 Peak Annual Instantaneous Flows for the Susitna River at Gold Creek Peak Flow Peak Flow Peak FlowDate(cfs)Date (cfs)Date (cfs) June 21,1950 34,000 June 30,1970 33,400 September 15,1990 50,300 June 8,1951 37,400 August 10,1971 87,400 June 23,1991 35,300 June 17,1952 44,700 June 17,1972 82,600 July 19,1992 33,300 June 7,1953 38,400 June 16,1973 54,100 September 3,1993 36,300 August 4,1954 42,400 May 29,1974 37,200 June 22,1994 46,600 August 26,1955 58,100 June 3,1975 47,300 June 25,1995 37,800 June 9,1956 51,700 June 12,1976 35,700 August 26,1996 26,100 June 8,1957 42,200 June 15,1977 54,300 August 1,2001 40,200 August 3,1958 49,600 June 23,1978 25,000 August 23,2002 36,200 August 25,1959 62,300 July 16,1979 41,300 July 28,2003 51,700 September 13,1960 41,900 July 29,1980 51,900 May 8,2004 43,400 June 23,1961 54,000 July 12,1981 64,900 June 19,2005 50,200 June 15,1962 80,600 June 21,1982 37,900 August 20,2006 59,800 July 18,1963 49,000 June 3,1983 37,300 May 28,2007 30,800 June 7,1964 90,700 June 17,1984 59,100 July 30,2008 34,400 June 28,1965 43,600 May 28,1985 40,400 May 5,2009 40,400 June 6,1966 63,600 June 18,1986 29,100 July 22,2010 37,400 August 15,1967 80,200 July 31,1987 47,300 May 29,2011 46,300 May 22,1968 41,800 June 16,1988 43,600 September 21,2012 72,000 May 25,1969 28,400 June 15,1989 46,800 June 1,2013 90,500 FINAL DRAFT Page 3 of 21 May 2014 -Z-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1408-TM-022814Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. Table 2 Calculated Flood Frequency for the Susitna River at Gold Creek Return Period Flow (Years)(cfs) 2 44,700 5 58,600 10 68,700 25 82,700 50 93,800 100 106,000 200 118,000 500 135,000 1,000 149,000 10,000 195,000 2.2 50-Year Annual Flood Peak Peak flows were estimated for return periods up to 1,000 years at the Watana Dam site by transposing peak flow analysis results at Gold Creek to Watana according to the following equation: 0.86AwatanaQwatana=Qcoia creek X )Gold Creek where A is the drainage area for each site.Peak flows are frequently adjusted from a gaged to an ungaged location by the ratio of the square root of the drainage areas.A USGS publication on the Flood Characteristics of Alaskan Streams (Water Resources Investigations 78-129),indicates that the exponent of the drainage area ratio should be at about the selected 0.86 value.The annual flood frequency values for Watana Dam presented in Table 3 can also be used to develop the construction diversion floods. The resulting 50-year annual instantaneous flood peak is 80,800 cfs. FINAL DRAFT Page 4 of 21 May 2014 --Z-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1 408-TM-02281 4 Table 3 Estimated Peak Annual Flows in the Susitna River at Watana Dam Return Period Flow (Years)(cfs) 2 38,500 5 50,500 10 59,200 20 68,300 25 71,300 50 80,800 100 91,300 500 116,300 1,000 128,400 2.3 50-Year Seasonal Flood Peak The initial reservoir elevation at the beginning of a flood is an important parameter for flood routing modeling.If the reservoir elevation was below El 2050 at the start of the 50-year flood,much or all of the 50-year flood water would fill the reservoir up to El 2050,the point at which surcharge storage operations would begin and results would indicate a reduced need for fixed-cone outlet valve discharge capacity.The months when the reservoir elevation is very unlikely to be at El 2050 are therefore eliminated from the analysis so that the assumed initial reservoir elevation can be set at El 2050. As is standard procedure at the feasibility level of studies,a number of preliminary reservoir operation cases have been tested.Figure |is a reservoir elevation frequency diagram,derived from the current power operation modeling preliminary Run 11C.Only the months of May through September need to be considered for the 50-year annual flood because these are the only months of occurrence of the peak annual flood in 134 station-years of record at the Susitna River USGS gaging stations at or above Gold Creek where the Project is located.For the 50-year seasonal flood,May is eliminated because the reservoir is never full (i.e.at El 2050)during May.June can also be eliminated because the reservoir is full less than 1%of the time in June,which means that the maximum June reservoir levels are the end result of a sequence of high inflows,not the initial level,so large floods after that month are very unlikely.For routing of a 50-year flood,a June full reservoir (El 2050)starting elevation would be an excessively conservative assumption. FINAL DRAFT Page 5 of 21 May 2014 za |ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1408-TM-02281 4 The remaining months when historical annual peak flows have been observed to occur and when the reservoir is more likely to be full are July,August,and September.Therefore,a seasonal flood frequency analysis was performed for the months of July through September to develop the seasonal 50- year flood for detailed flood routing through the surcharge storage pool above El 2050.This same seasonal duration was used in the 1985 Susitna study. 2100 2050 TSSPSS /2000 NS "gen we 1950 N pT ee--100th Percentile (Maximum) --99th percentile =oOoOoReservoirElevation(feet)--50th Percentil (Median)Based on 61 years of -Minimum Pool simulated daily reservoir elevations 1850 1800 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Figure 1 Reservoir Elevation Frequency The basic source of seasonal flow data was the 61 years of daily Watana Reservoir inflows as developed from the USGS record extension study for the Susitna River basin (Curran 2012).For reference,the 61 years of daily inflows to Watana Reservoir are plotted on the attached Exhibit 1.A frequency analysis of the annual 1-day maximum Watana Reservoir inflow in the July through September period is shown on Figure 2.The 50-year 1-day inflow from the frequency analysis is 57,900 cfs.The largest 1-day inflow as developed from the historic record was 66,800 cfs in August 1971,which was also the largest month of August inflow.The second largest 1-day inflow was 60,800 cfs in August 1967,which was also the third highest month of August inflow to the reservoir. FINAL DRAFT Page 6 of 21 May 2014 -Z-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1 408-TM-02281 4 An analysis of the five largest August through September recorded peak flows at the USGS gage at Gold Creek showed that peak instantaneous flows were 5%to 12%larger than the average daily flows, with the average value being 8%larger.The calculated 50-year 1-day average flow of 57,900 cfs would equate to an instantaneous peak flow of 62,500 cfs with the average 8%increase. Return Period (Years) 2 100,000 5 10 20 50 100 200 500 Peak1-DayAverageFlow(cfs)10,000 3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 Standard Normal Variable Figure 2 Watana Reservoir July -September Peak 1-Day Average Inflows For reference,the September 2012 flood had a peak daily flow of 58,700 cfs and an instantaneous peak of 60,700 cfs at the USGS gaging station at Tsusena Creek,which has a drainage area essentially the same as Watana Dam.The September 2012 flood was by far the largest September flood of record at the USGS gaging station at Gold Creek. FINAL DRAFT Page 7 of 21 May 2014 -Z--ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1408-TM-022814Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. 3.FLOOD VOLUME FREQUENCY The 50-year floods were routed through the reservoir to determine the peak water levels and peak outflows.During construction,the diversion flood would start at about El 1465,near the bottom of an unfilled reservoir wherein the area is relatively small.The storage space available for inflow flood attenuation would be small,about 29,000 acre-feet up to the elevation 1553,the top of the impervious core of the diversion cofferdam.During operation,the 50-year July-September flood would begin at El 2050,the maximum normal pool level,which means that storage space available for inflow flood attenuation is much greater. As a conservative design parameter,the 50-year flood hydrographs to be routed through the reservoir were developed to contain not only the 50-year peak inflow,but also the 50-year total hydrograph volume.A review of historic hydrographs indicates that the high flows of maximum floods tend to occur over a period of about 20 days.Therefore,the 50-year flood should embody the 50-year,20-day volume as well as the 50-year flood peak.In a manner similar to the determination of the 50-year 1-day average floods at Watana Dam,the 50-year 20-day average flood flow was determined. 3.1 50-Year Annual Flood Volume A statistical analysis of the 61-year Watana Dam inflow record indicates that the all-season 50-year 20- day average inflow volume would be 39,900 cfs (1,583,000 acre-feet total over 20 days).In the developed 61-year period of Watana inflow record,the maximum 20-day average volume was 50,210 cfs (1,992,000 acre-feet total over 20 days)in June 1964.The second maximum 20-day average in the 61-year period of record was 40,670 cfs (1,613,000 acre-feet total over 20 days)in June 1962 and the third largest in 61 years was an average of 33,800 cfs (1,341,000 acre-feet total over 20 days)in August -1981.By comparison to those three historical maximum values,the calculated volume of 1,583,000 acre-ft over 20 days was confirmed for the 50-year annual flood volume. 3.2 50-Year July -September Flood Volume For the July through September season,the calculated 50-year 20-day average Watana inflow volume was 34,100 cfs (1,353,000 acre-feet total over 20 days).The two largest 20-day average flows in the FINAL DRAFT Page 8 of 21 May 2014 2 7 ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1408-TM-022814Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. 61-year period of estimated inflow record were 33,800 cfs (August 1981),and 32,900 cfs (September 1959).Because of the clustering of maximum values,the 50-year 20-day volume of 1,353,000 acre-feet was considered to be acceptable. FINAL DRAFT Page 9 of 21 May 2014 Za ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1408-TM -022814 4. 50-YEAR FLOOD INFLOW HYDROGRAPHS The shape of the 50-year inflow hydrographs was based on historic floods for the appropriate season as taken from the calculated 61-year period of Watana Reservoir daily inflows.Historic floods that had a single peak and a classic hydrograph shape were favored.The historic hydrographs were scaled to provide the desired peak flow and volume with some rearranging of flows to give ascending flows before the peak and descending flows after the peak of the hydrograph. 4.1 50-Year Annual Flood Hydrograph The 50-year annual flood hydrograph shape was based on the June 1971 flood for which the historic inflow at Watana was estimated to be 66,800 cfs with a 20-day volume of 1,285,000 acre-feet.The rescaled 50-year annual peak flow was 80,800 cfs and the 20-day volume was 1,581,000 acre-feet.The 50-year annual flood is plotted on Figure 3. 90,000 80,000 /\70,000 /\-50-Year Annual Flood 60,000 \ 30,000 /o™N 7 10,000 (°) 1-Jun 3-Jun 5-Jun 7-Jun 9-Jun 41-Jun 13-Jun 15-Jun 17-Jun 19-Jun Figure 3 50-Year Annual Flood Hydrograph FINAL DRAFT Page 10 of 21 May 2014 sy. SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA11-022 13-1408-TM-022814 4.2 50-Year Seasonal Flood Hydrograph The 50-year July-September seasonal flood was based on the August 1971 historical flood for which the peak daily flow at Watana was 66,800 cfs and the 20-day volume was 1,265,000 acre-feet.The peak flow for the 50-year seasonal flood,as shown on Figure 4,is 62,500 cfs and the 20-day volume is 1,352,000 acre-feet. 70,000 I --50-Year July-September Flood 60,000 50,000 [\. 40,000 \Flow(cfs)30,000 20,000 10,000 Q 1-Aug 3-Aug 5-Aug 7-Aug 9-Aug 11-Aug 13-Aug 15-Aug 17-Aug 19-Aug 21-Aug Figure 4 50-Year July -September Flood Hydrograph FINAL DRAFT Page 11 of 21 May 2014 -Z-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1408-TM-022814Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. 5.RESULTS OF ALTERNATIVE ROUTINGS OF THE 50-YEAR FLOOD The HEC-1 Flood Hydrograph Package was used for routing the floods through the available reservoir storage.Daily inflows were input to the model,which disaggregated the daily data to hourly data,as plotted on Figure 3 and Figure 4. 5.1 Diversion Flood Routing (During Construction) 5.1.1 Diversion Facilities Description The construction diversion facilities would consist of the following main components: e Anupstream cofferdam with crest at E]1560 and an impervious core at El 1553.The upstream cofferdam would have a 120-ft wide overflow spillway on each abutment with a crest level at El 1530. e A 36-ft diameter,vertical sided,horseshoe-shaped,lined diversion tunnel.The enlarged tunnel entrance would have two 22-ft wide by 36-ft high gated intakes.The design criterion is that the tunnel alone should pass the 5-year flood assuming no hydraulic capacity reductions due to ice or debris. e A 44-ft wide (50-ft wide at the entrance)by 44-ft high sluice through the RCC main dam.The design criterion is that the sluice alone should pass the 50-year flood under the conservative assumption that the tunnel is completely plugged. e A downstream cofferdam designed to wash away in the event that the sluice operates. §.1.2 Diversion Flood Routing Results Results of the diversion flood routings indicate that the available storage upstream of the cofferdam is insufficient to attenuate the 80,800 cfs peak of the 50-year annual inflow flood shown in Figure 3 in any meaningful way such that the diversion facilities essentially must pass the entire peak of the inflow flood.The storage impounded by the cofferdam up to the top of the impervious core at El]1553 is only FINAL DRAFT Page 12 of 21 May 2014 -Z-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1408-TM-022814 about 29,000 acre-feet.An inflow of 50,000 cfs,which occurs for several days during the 50-year flood,would have a daily inflow volume of about 100,000 acre-feet. Because the potential for at least partial plugging of the diversion tunnel with ice floes cannot be dismissed,the following two cases were run: e The first case assumes no hydraulic capacity reductions of the diversion tunnel and includes usage of the sluice.The calculated peak outflow was 80,050 cfs at a peak reservoir level at elevation 1540.4. e The second case assumes the most extreme case of complete plugging of the diversion tunnel. The calculated peak outflow was 80,090 cfs at a peak reservoir level at elevation 1552.6. 5.2 50-Year Surcharge Storage Flood Routings (During Operation) As used herein,50-year surcharge storage means the reservoir storage between the maximum normal pool level at El 2050 and the maximum water level of the 50-year routed seasonal flood.An additional increment of reservoir storage may be used for routing of the Probable Maximum Flood (PMF).The objective of the surcharge storage flood routings is to provide enough information so that an informed choice of fixed-cone outlet valve capacity and surcharge storage can be made. Assumptions and analysis parameters that are constant or are can vary between runs include the following: e The initial reservoir level is at El 2050 in all runs. e The 50-year seasonal (July -September)flood is the inflow flood. e The gated spillway is not to be used because spillway flows could potentially cause gas supersaturation downstream from Watana Dam. e The emergency (diversion tunnel)outlet is not to be used. e Flood forecasting is not used to improve the surcharge storage operation. FINAL DRAFT ,Page 13 of 21 May 2014 -Z-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 13-1408-TM-022814Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. e The number and total capacity of the fixed-cone outlet valves is a variable.Each fixed-cone valve is assumed to have a capacity of 4,000 cfs. e The fixed-cone valves begin to open as soon as the reservoir level rises above El 2050. e The reservoir level at which the fixed-cone valves are fully open is a variable. e The amount of turbine flow up to the 15,000 cfs capacity is a variable.The turbine flows are assumed to be constant during the flood routing. The primary results of the analysis are peak reservoir level and peak total outflow. Both pluses and minuses can be assigned to the variables.Increased fixed-cone valve capacity and a faster rate of opening of the valves would reduce the amount of necessary surcharge storage and thus reduce the height and cost of the dam.But flow through the fixed-cone valves is essentially "spill”, released water that is not available for generation,so there is a resulting power loss which is a dis- incentive to use them.Fluvial geomorphology considerations tend to favor releasing higher flows that are capable of moving sediment and maintaining natural channel characteristics. Assuming an operating rule for the fixed-cone valves where the valves would hold the reservoir level at exactly El 2050 could result in a very abrupt opening of the valves.The reservoir could store the earlypartofthefloodhydrographbutEl2050couldbereachedatahighflow,say 50,000 cfs,that could require immediate maximum valve flows.Forecasting of inflows could be done to improve the operation,such as beginning to open the valves more gradually before El 2050 is reached,but no prior knowledge of inflow rates is assumed herein for the present analysis. For routing of the PMF,the normal assumption is that the turbines are not operating due to extremely stormy conditions and associated power outages or transmission line drops.This is not necessarily the case for routing of a much smaller flood such as the 50-year flood,so the turbines are assumed to be operable for that case.The areas of greatest energy consumption are far from Watana Dam and may not be experiencing unusually stormy conditions.The July through September time period is not the period of peak power demand,so maximum power output at Watana may not be usable and energy production FINAL DRAFT Page 14 of 21 May 2014 ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1408-TM-022814 may be limited.Therefore,it may not be reasonable to assume the powerhouse could discharge at maximum output,which would correspond to a maximum flow of about 15,000 cfs.Releases above those made through the powerhouse would need to be made through the LLOW. The expected PMF operation will be for the turbines to operate until the maximum 50-year flood reservoir elevation is achieved and then the turbines will shut down and the spillway gates will begin to open.Because the fixed-cone valves are assumed to be operational for both the 50-year flood and the .PMF,incorporation of additional fixed-cone valves could result in a corresponding reduction in required spillway capacity.This is a tradeoff that is being evaluated as part of the ongoing engineering feasibility studies. The 1980s Susitna feasibility study allocated 14 feet of reservoir flood storage space above the maximum normal pool level before the spillway gates began to open.In the current feasibility studies it was anticipated that the current design would use at least a few feet of reservoir storage to attenuate the inflow flood,rather than passing the entire peak of the inflow flood without an increase in reservoir level.Table 4 provides the reservoir elevation-volume table for the elevation range of potential flood surcharge storage. Table 4 Reservoir Elevation -Capacity Data Reservoir Elevation |Volume (feet)(acre-feet) 2050 5,170,000 2075 5,780,400 A range of flood routings were performed using the HEC-1 model;results are summarized in Table 5. The range of possible fixed-cone valve capacity covered was from 24,000 cfs (6 valves operating)to 40,000 cfs (10 valves operating)in combination with the turbines discharging at about full or half capacity.Also tested in the modeling was a slower opening of the valves that would be done to save FINAL DRAFT Page 15 of 21 May 2014 ---z-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1 408-TM-02281 4 some additional water for generation,which showed that raising the full-open level of the valves by 1- foot results in a corresponding 1-foot increase in the peak reservoir level.The results of the model runs shown in Table 5 are available for evaluation and selection of the preferred configuration by AEA. Table 5 Flood Routing Results All Turbines Valves All Valves Peak Maximum Maximum Fully Open Peak Reserwir Run Total Outflow |Total Outflow}Elevation Outflow Elevation Comments (cfs)(cfs)(feet)(cfs)(feet) |_1 _{|_15,000_|_24,000 _]__2051 _|39,000 |2057.9 |__Similarin concept to 1980s design __2_|_7,500 _|__24,000_|_2051 _|_31,500_|2062.4 _|_Reduces turbine output due to lower load __|_3_|_15,000 _|__28,000_|_2051_|_43,000_|20558 |__Like Run 1,but adds1 valve __||4 _|_7,500_|_28,000 _|_2051 _|35,500 |20599 |___Like Run 2,but adds 1 valve|_&_|_18,000_|_32,000 _|__2051 _|47,000 |20541 |___Like Run,butadds 2vales _ _6_|_7,500 _|_32,000_|_2051_|_39,500_|2057.6 _|___Like Run2,but adds 2vahes_ _7_|_15,900 _|__36,000_|_2051_|_51,000_|2052.8 _}___Like Runt,but adds 3vahes__|8 _|_7,500_|_36,000 _|__2051 _|43,500 |20556 |___Like Run2,butadds 3vales|_9 _|_15,000_|_40,000 _|__2051 _|55,000 |2051.9 |___Like Run41,but adds 4 valves __10.|7,500 _|40,000,|_2051 |_47,500 2053.9 Like Run 2,but adds 4 valves _41 |_15,000 _|__36,000_|_2052_|_51,000_|2053.8 _|_Like Run7,but opens valves more slowly _|12 7,500 36,000 2052 43,500 2056.6 Like Run 8,but opens valves more slowly Figure 5 is an example plot of the flood routing for Run 6.The reservoir level is output by HEC-1 in 0.1 ft increments that results in a slightly jagged plot of reservoir elevation.As shown,the peak elevation rise for the reservoir is 7.6 feet (El 2050.0 to El 2057.6),and that peak occurs about 15 days after the flood begins. AEA has evaluated the results presented in Table 5,and Run 6 was the selected alternative.Therefore, the proposed Watana Dam configuration will include 8 fixed-cone valves,each capable of discharging 4,000 cfs with the reservoir level at El 2050 for a maximum fixed-cone valve outlet capability of 32,000 cfs.For routing of the PMF,the following conditions will be incorporated: e The 8 fixed-cone valves will begin to open when the reservoir level rises above El 2050.0 and will become fully open when the reservoir level reaches El 2051.0. e Turbine flow will be 7,500 cfs until the reservoir reaches El 2057.6,at which point the turbines will be completely shut down for the remainder of the PMF routing. FINAL DRAFT Page 16 of 21 May 2014 -a-ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 |13-1408-TM-022814Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. e The spillway gates will not begin to open until the reservoir level has reached El 2057.6. e The size of the spillway gates and the total outflow capability of the spillway will be as determined in the PMF Study. 80,000 2058 70,000 . 2057 -Inflow /\° 205660,000 +----Outflow /x \-Reservoir Level = 50,000 aN \2055 3= $//\\g}40,000 2054 42)9reyy,2 a a [)[wd 30,000 Z /2053 I \al ",20,000 //l 2052 10,000 \2051!LraalIeen 0 2050888888888888c=]os a o a o o So o So 3 6 2 2 2 2 2 ¢2 g ¢2 2 25g85=g Fy =g FS gba3bd33&3 3 5 3 8 3 Figure 5 Run 6 Inflow,Outflow,and Reservoir Level 5.3 Comparison with 1980's Results For comparison,results from the 1985 FERC License Application for the Susitna Project are shown in Table 6.Based on plots of the study results,it appears that the spillway gates began to open at a level higher than the peak of the 50-year July -September flood.The reasons for this difference have not been evaluated to date. FINAL DRAFT Page 17 of 21 May 2014 -y ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years..13-1408-TM-022814 Table6 Summary of 1985 Flood Routing Study Results 1985 1985 Parameter Watana Watana Stage |Stage Ill |__Maximum normal pool level (feet)___|_2000.0 _|_2185.0 _|_Fixed-conevalvestotalcapacity (cfs)_|_24,000 _|_30,000 _50-year flood peak reservoir level (feet)2011.0 2191.5 _--50-yearfloodpeakoutflow (cfs)___|__34,000__|__33,900_|[Elevation that spillway begins to operate (feet)|_2014.0 _|_2193.0 _|__PMF peak resenwirlevel(fect)__|_2017.1 _|_2199.3 _PME peak outflow (cfs)302,000 284,000 FINAL DRAFT Page 18 of 21 May 2014 -y ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.1 3-1 408-TM-02281 4 6.BIBLIOGRAPHY 1.Alaska Power Authority,November 1985.Supporting Design Report,Susitna Hydroelectric Project,Draft License Application,Volume 16,Exhibit F. 2.Curran,J.H.,2012.Streamflow Record Extension for Selected Streams in the Susitna River Basin, Alaska,U.S.Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2012-5210,36 p. 3.MWH,2014.Jnterim Feasibility Report,Susitna-Watana Hydroelectric Project. 4.MWH,2014.Probable Maximum Flood Study,Susitna-Watana Hydroelectric Project. FINAL DRAFT Page 19 of 21 May 2014 -y .ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1 408-TM-02281 4 Exhibit 1 Watana Reservoir Daily Inflows FINAL DRAFT Page 20 of 21 May 2014 : ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITYSUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO AEA11-022 Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.13-1 408-TM-02281 4 80,000 ||70,000 1 T T 60,000 -Simulated Natural Inflows to Watana Reservoir @ 50,000J40,000 '=7i=30,000 It +-t4}\ i20,000 [ 10,000 A N \ | \ 0 j =WJ LS KIS 1-Oct-49 11-Oct-50 11-Oct-51 1-Oct-52 1-Oct-53 11-Oct-54 1-Oct-55 1-Oct-56 11-Oct-57 11-Oct-58 1-Oct-59 1-Oct-60 1-Oct-61 1-Oct-62 1-Oct-63 1-Oct-64 1-Oct65 1-Oct-66 1-Oct-67 1-Oct-68 1-Oct-69 80,000 70,000 |||om aag50,00040,000 ; iz 30,000 \5 20,000 j ' 4 iT i10,000 =CH ial Ff KJ CJ0+++++t ++ 41-Oct-69 1-Oct-70 11-Oct-71 11-Oct-72 11-Oct-73 1-Oct-74 1-Oct-75 1-Oct-76 1-Oct-77 1-Oct-78 1-Oct-79 11-Oct-80 1-Oct-81 11-Oct-82 1-Oct-83 1-Oct-84 1-Oct-85 1-Oct-86 1-Oct-87 11-Oct-68 1-Oct-89Tr 80,000 70,000 |||| coom eringsaatgrove@50,000 >40,000&30,000 |'"7 ii,|;20,000 i '|K F hk "4 f\|:rH -N10,000 \\_/wy.i \\\_+LI wa | 1-Oct-89 11-Oct-90 1-Oct-91 1-Oct-92 1-Oct-93 1-Oct-94 1-Oct-95 1-Oct-96 1-Oct-97 1-Oct-98 1-Oct-99 1-Oct-00 1-Oct-01 1-Oct-02 1-Oct-03 1-Oct-04 1-Oct-05 1-Oct-06 1-Oct-07 1-Oct-08 .1-Oct-09 Exhibit 1:Watana Reservoir Daily Inflows FINAL DRAFT Page 21 of 21 May 2014 .zx.ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA11-022 SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO WORK IN PROGRESS Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. Appendix B5 Rock Wedge Analysis Friction Cone Stereonet Analyses Susitna-Watana Hydroelectric Project Alaska Energy Authority FERC Project No.14241 July 2014 an ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA11-022SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO WORK IN PROGRESS Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. Left Abutment -Friction Cone Stereonet Analyses gS ON OOTY Se".se weeLeftAbutmentDam Axis299/03 _ Friction contour interval:5 deg W.E ! ff./45 Deg.Frictien Envelope Ss Figure B5-1.Left Abutment -Analysis of Wedge 1a -Static Analysis Susitna-Watana Hydroelectric Project Alaska Energy Authority FERC Project No.14241 Page B5-1 July 2014 an ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA11-022SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO WORK IN PROGRESS Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. _°se \se "a oe ee'Dam Axis (N_S in ih sen aoe W.-+-E 45 Deg.Friction Envelope Figure B5 -2.Left Abutment -Analysis of Wedge 1b -Static Analysis Susitna-Watana Hydroelectric Project Alaska Energy Authority FERC Project No.14241 Page B5-2 July 2014 A ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA11-022SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO WORK IN PROGRESS Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. 299/03 Left Abutment Dam Axis (N-S) Figure B5 -3.Left Abutment -Analysis of Wedge 2a -Static Analysis Susitna-Watana Hydroelectric Project Alaska Energy Authority FERC Project No.14241 Page B5-3 July 2014 aan ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA11-022 SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO WORK IN PROGRESS Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. 299/03 Left Abutment Axis (N-S) {83TR -my\ f _R2,33%© Ge> Sr Figure B5 -4.Left Abutment -Analysis of Wedge 2b -Static Analysis Susitna-Watana Hydroelectric Project Alaska Energy Authority FERC Project No.14241 Page B5 -4 July 2014 aa ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA11-022 SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO WORK IN PROGRESS Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. Figure B5 -5.Left Abutment -Analysis of Wedge Ib Pseudostatic Analysis with Seismic Coefficient of 0.4g Susitna-Watana Hydroelectric Project Alaska Energy Authority FERC Project No.14241 Page B5-5 July 2014 an ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA11-022SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO =:WORK IN PROGRESS Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. 4 '\ \ ', N A '\\ -\.ina¢\4 Friction a Figure B5 -6.Left Abutment -Analysis of Wedge 2b -Pseudostatic Analysis with Seismic Coefficient of 0.4g Susitna-Watana Hydroelectric Project Alaska Energy Authority FERC Project No.14241 Page B5-6 July 2014 sz ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA11-022SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO WORK IN PROGRESS Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. Right Abutment -Friction Cone Stereonet Analyses Figure BS -7.Right Abutment -Analysis of Wedge RA 1-1 -Static Analysis Susitna-Watana Hydroelectric Project Alaska Energy Authority FERC Project No.14241 Page B5-7 July 2014 en ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA11-022SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO WORK IN PROGRESS Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. Figure B5 -8.Right Abutment -Analysis of Wedge RA 1-2 -Static Analysis Susitna-Watana Hydroelectric Project Alaska Energy Authority FERC Project No.14241 Page B5-8 July 2014 a ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA11-022SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO WORK IN PROGRESS Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. Figure B5-9.Right Abutment -Analysis of Wedge RA 2-1 -Static Analysis Susitna-Watana Hydroelectric Project Alaska Energy Authority FERC Project No.14241 Page B5-9 July 2014 a ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA11-022SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO WORK IN PROGRESS Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. Figure BS -10.Right Abutment -Analysis of Wedge RA 2-2 -Static Analysis Susitna-Watana Hydroelectric Project Alaska Energy Authority FERC Project No.14241 Page B5-10 July 2014 yz ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA11-022SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO WORK IN PROGRESS Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. Ta Ra,100%© Figure B5 -11.Right Abutment -Analysis of Wedge RA 1-2 -Pseudostatic Analysis with Seismic Coefficient of 0.4g Susitna-Watana Hydroelectric Project Alaska Energy Authority FERC Project No.14241 Page B5-11 July 2014 aan ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA11-022SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO WORK IN PROGRESS Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. -_45 deg:FrictionE Figure B5 -12.Right Abutment -Analysis of Wedge RA 2-2 -Pseudostatic Analysis with Seismic Coefficient of 0.4g Susitna-Watana Hydroelectric Project Alaska Energy Authority FERC Project No.14241 Page B5-12 July 2014 ee on ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA11-022SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO WORK IN PROGRESS Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. Appendix B6 Development of Time Histories Susitna-Watana Hydroelectric Project Alaska Energy Authority FERC Project No.14241 ;July 2014 -Spectrally Matched -SEED 3 :E ,K Ila ; Boa]ll ti tyioalli Ti tvremerre |em7STAT-0.4 Fatt Wnt -0.6 , 0 20 40 Time(s)"30 100 *-Spectrally Matched --SEED Velocity(cm/s)SoSLy Li .\==-_5|ead-[1-,rHaee;20 40 60 80Time(s)100 -Spectrally Matched -SEED NormalizedDisplacement20 40 60 80 Time (s}100 -e- SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clear.refcbie energy for the nent 100 yeors SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT Slab M8.0 69th Percentile -SEED &SPECTRALLY MATCHED Acceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time Histories MYGOOSEW Figure 1 --SEED Acceleration(g)80 100 -SEED Velocity(cm/s)20 40 80 100 --SEED bWwrayb&B{eeNate Displacement(cm)aowACA POP ey wi ye f ¥ ,VAP UE PA ry 4s (a V °20 20 60 80 100 Time (s) x SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Slab M8.0 69th Percentile -SEED Figure 2 Civwn,retetic energy for the tert tee yours Acceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time Histories MYGOOSEW -Spectrally Matched 9nNAcceleration(g)on=|ane)et-HAN NPM aehn im - 20 40 60 80 100Time(s) -Spectrally Matched mea=---aed{aVelocity(cm/s)yoSG20 60 Time (s) -Spectrally Matched ray°oin MIN,NAAM NAN Displacement(cm)nmoouwWI ey »i)ayw,No20 40 60 80Time(s)100 we SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROCleon.rebate nergyforthene 109y SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT Slab M8.0 69th Percentile -SPECTRALLY MATCHED Acceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time MYGOOSEW Histories Figure 3 3.5 -SEED -Spectrally Matched -TARGET ;| MA 15 SpectralAcceleration(g)0.5 Vv 0.01 0.10 . 1.00 10.00 Period (s) *SEED record scaled to the peak ground acceleration prior to spectral matching. SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECTfo SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO .Slab M8.0 69th Percentile -Before and After Spectral Matching Figure 4 Cran refictie ereray for the neat 100 years MYGOOSEW 100% 90%+ 80%+ 70%+ 60% 50% 40%+%AriasIntensity30%+ 20%+|-SEED -Spectrally Matched 10%+ 0%+ 20 120 10= 0.001 + 0.0001 + 0.00001 -FourierAmplitude-SEED -Spectrally Matched 0.000001 0.0000001 + ”16-08 sit in Dededtth L a ee ee} 0.00 0.01 .0.10 1.00 10.00 Frequency (Hz) 100.00 -Z- SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Ciran,rebabie energy far thy acet IGO yeart SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT Slab M8.0 69th Percentile -Arias Intensity &Fourier Transform MYGOO9EW Figure 5 --Spectrally Matched -SEED o-.Acceleration(g)>8MN=mut0.2 itih :if Wh il]iW TR 20 40 60 Time (s) 80 100 --Spectrally Matched -SEED reyoOA sill.tH Velocity(cm/s)OoNowf=)bowa320 40 '60 Time (s) 80 100 -Spectrally Matched -SEED pa|a}-- tly haAM N Maven -JWey Pe 'raryNormalizedDisplacementcon)oOwnQown>=Pa=<a-15 20 60 Time (s) 80 100 SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO - Clean rebadle energy for the next 109 years. SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT Slab M8.0 69th Percentile- Acceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time HistoriesMYGOO9NS SEED &SPECTRALLY MATCHED Figure 6 -SEED i erne4TAIRA ohtetrereernn Saee es es ce acs ce 80 4 100 -SEED ------{_--==<"---_|<=.==<.-eeeSe|J]=]=ar-<<]en<<]-=qVelocity(cm/s)bw&&®O&OBeNYww100 -SEED Displacement(cm)Qo20 100 SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,rehatte eneray for the neat 109 years. SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT Slab M8.0 69th Percentile -SEED Acceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time Histories MYGOOSNS . Figure 7 s :)cr Hy mM Lath|aged Hr a ee vine 0 ee z |wld i | E ELA ATL RATi,||a iat yey| 60 Time (s) -Spectrally Matched Displacement(cm)y°Fe a Sn A i Sc ie Sn Se Sn San SntT SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Slab M8. Accelerati 0 69th Percentile -SPECTRALLY MATCHEDn,Velocityaand Displacement Time Hist MYGOOSNS Figure 3.5 -SEED -Spectrally Matched _-TARGET |\ 15 SpectralAcceleration(g)0.5 0.01 0.10 1.00 10.00 Period (s) *SEED record scaled to the peak ground acceleration prior to spectral matching. SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Slab M8.0 69th Percentile -Before and After Spectral Matching Figure 9 Clean.rehuble oneegy for the neat 109 pears . MYGOOONS 1 ae90%+ra80%+P f70%+ =[2 60% ” $f250% =t 40%T < x 30% x -SEED --Spectrally Matched20% t 'f10%+ff0%ft pe ;+++ 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Time (s) SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO an renotle ene gy forthe next 100 years 1+ 0.1 E 0.01 E © F ao)L]»0.001 E =F £i <0.0001 +od E(8) <= =j O 0.00001ou.E 0.000001 E 0.0000001 sus 4 Ha Wy aa 0.00 0.01 0.10 1.00 10.00 100.00 Frequency (Hz) SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECTi Slab M8.0 69th Percentile -Arias Intensity &Fourier Transform MYGOOSNS Figure 10 0.6 -Spectrally Matched --SEED Acceleration(g)6 Time (s) --Spectrally Matched -SEED Velocity(cm/s)oO40 _60 80 100 Time (s) 15 +-Spectrally Matched -SEED 9un)inNormalizedDisplacementoOas + _60 80 100 Time (s) 120 Se SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Cleon,rebate energy for the neat 109 years, SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT Slab M8.0 69th Percentile -SEED &SPECTRALLY MATCHED Acceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time Histories MYGO09UD Figure 11 --SEED Acceleration(g)OoQooaN-=eae=--n.===a_--__ta02040 . 60 80 100Time(s) -SEED Velocity(cm/s)1 |4 12 -_iy Nd ||\i i ly H ;|ilnal,loii|| 0 20 40 60 80 100Time(s) os +| of IMIiy atta fateyee --SEED Displacement(cm)"1 {|$|+ 0 20 40 . 60 80 100Time(s) zw SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Slab M8.0 69th Percentile -SEED Figure 12 clean,revurtte energy forthe neat 169 years Acceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time Histories -_ MYGOOSUD -Spectrally Matched Acceleration(g)|: 1,;Aine Fe ae a PO EO ST a UN,TS SS RS ORONOtT Time (s) 40 -Spectrally Matched 30 20 + 10 +ul rd Ad ,1 |Velocity(cm/s)°--S|=|=4-==-=ot-1===|-a--=-aea-= -J=a-S"10 +4 | -20 1 wgg {a po 0 20 40 Time (>80 100 15 --Spectrally Matched 10 g \|| SS ||€.8 0 aa yyl\f vf ||nfl N\aNira \A AMA hy rh,cull psi2. :|Wh repre ve a (¢)20 40 80 100 Time (s). Ze..SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECTo-. . Slab M8.0 69th Percentile -SPECTRALLY MATCHED Figure 13.SUSITNA.WATANA HYDRO Acceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time Histories 6 Clean.cesable eneray forthe nest years.MYGOO9UD 2.5 -SEED -Spectrally Matched -TARGET 2 -, [o¥e) - 5 i15j Fin s V © Sus ov oO oO rs) <x wr}. ©_) _ (3) [oP] a - 0 +: 0.01 0.10 1.00 Period (s) 10.00 *SEED record scaled to the peak ground acceleration prior to spectral matching. SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT-- SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Slab M8.0 69th Percentile -Before and After Spectral Matching Clean.cebtatte energy for the neat 120 years MYGO093UD Figure 14 100% 90%+f 30%+ 70%+ 60%+ 50%+ 40%+ 30%+%AriasIntensity20%+|-SEED -Spectrally Matched 10%+ 0% 20 40 60 80 100 120 0.1 = 0.01 + 0.001 + 0.0001 + -SEED --Spectrally Matched FourierAmplitude0.00001 0.000001 + 0.0000001 put 2 oe oe ae oe 1 po 1 a 0.00 7 T t t 0.01 0.10 1.00 10.00 Frequency (Hz) 100.00 Te SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean setiable energy fee the neat 100 years SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT Slab M8.0 69th Percentile -Arias Intensity &Fourier Transform MYGO09UD Figure 15 0.8 + [--Spectrally Matched -SEED0.6 +9NuoOAcceleration(g)0 10 20 30 . 40 50 60 70Time(s)} -Spectrally Matched -SEED Velocity(cm/s)mioOOoOo4=e7h--a:}v Fy t 20 I -30 -40 -50 | 0 10 20 so 60 70Time{s) 1.5 5 -Spectrally Matched --SEED 1 € a Eos A eu Bs} afb PLO Pa pA a aA wa N e£05 7 ¥5 y 2 -1 "15 +} 0 10 20 sO 60 70Time{s) SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT Slab M8.0 69th Percentile -SEED &SPECTRALLY MATCHED Acceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time Histories MONTEW SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Figure 16 Clean,reliable energy for the nest 108 years. -SEED So---Acceleration(g)ait |+yt |ity oow'0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70Time(s) -SEED 'wnVelocity(cm/s)=-----=Time (s) -SEED +7TICaenMpeefDisplacement(cm)0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Time (s) x.SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Slab M8.0 69th Percentile -SEED Figure 17 len.rehebte evenyy for the nest 109 eons.Acceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time Histories MONTEW - -Spectrally Matched Sata---|a-_-Lihhpartner -Acceleration(g)oOoSNnfy=tee=eSae10 20 30 40 50 60 Time (s) --Spectrally Matched |++-awh ANty Me An ch a A Velocity(cm/s)=Pg ete 10 20 -40 so 60Time(s) 15 -Spectrally Matched TTT10+Displacement(cm)10 20 .30 40 50 60 Time {s) 70 -Z- SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Cieur,refebie energy fos the neat 109 yeurs, SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT Slab M8.0 69th Percentile -SEED &SPECTRALLY MATCHED Acceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time Histories :MONTEW Figure 18 -Spectrally Matched 2.5 |_ ; |AN |iwi 0.5 a-SpectralAcceleration(g)0 1 1 fan vane OarOO 1 A Ferien 0.01 0.10 1.00 10.00 Period (s) *SEED record scaled to the peak ground acceleration prior to spectral matching. SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECTZz SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Slab M8.0 69th Percentile -Before and After Spectral Matching Figure 19 Clean.tehoble eneegy for the neat 122 yours MONTEW 100% 90%+ 80%+ 70%+ 60%+ .50%+ 40%+ 30%+%AriasIntensity20%{+--SEED -Spectrally Matched aaa0%+-LY 70 0.1 + 0.01 + 0.001 + 0.000001 + 0.0001 Tt0.00001 +FourierAmplitude0.0000001 ; --SEED -Spectrally Matched 1€-08 1E-09 0.01 0.10 Lit a 1 ren ae a 1.00 10.00 Frequency (Hz) -z- SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO. Clean cehabie energy for the meet [69 years SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT Slab M8.0 69th Percentile -Arias Intensity &Fourier Transform MONTEW Figure 20 -Spectrally Matched --SEED °rl"-aAineeaManaSAcceleration(g)---i iui}HIP- Time (s)70 -Spectrally Matched -SEED Velocity(cm/s)fo]=20 50 60Time(s) 1.5 -Spectrally Matched -SEED os t 05 +NormalizedDisplacement0 10 20 Time (s)70 SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,rehatle energy for the seat 109 years. SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT Slab M8.0 69th Percentile -SEED &SPECTRALLY MATCHED Acceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time Histories MONTNS Figure 21 -SEED <q 0.1 f i ALT | ,SE willed ball ||i iyoil|Zt<=o1 WH || 0.2 + a 10 20 Time(s)40 50 60 70 ° -SEED 15 10 1 {:+--_4 lh20emia)Ht ,T IA a a part »{-- 15 ”0 10 20 50 60 70Time(s) °'-SEED 6+ a | é,!,NI A, Coal a Ae7yar4:- Z | °S ne ver:c s y SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO acceleration Velotty and bisplecement Time Histories Figure 22 MONTNS --Spectrally Matched inda0.2 Acceleration(g)oO+oOr4----=oe[=LS|[==|eSESESSmlee0 10 20 ; 40 50 60Time(s)} -Spectrally Matched (1 rayoreSS-10 Velocity(cm/s)oO-20 20 ; 50 60Time(s) -Spectrally Matched aM IXSW wuwoeeeeee|oe_uyoODisplacement(cm)-25 + 20 30 40 50 60 70Time(s) pw 'SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean.reflable energy for tne neat 139 years SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT Slab M8.0 69th Percentile -SPECTRALLY MATCHED Acceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time Histories MONTNS _Figure 23 3.5 -SEED -Spectrally Matched -TARGET\,25 Fal Lot} - ec 2 cS 2 - 2 id oO oO i-_1.5 oSeen u [ob] a. -. 0.5 11} 0.10 1.00 Period (s) 10.00 *SEED record scaled to the peak ground acceleration prior to spectral matching. Ee SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Cheam,rehadle energy for fhe meet 169 pears SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT Slab M8.0 69th Percentile -Before and After Spectral Matching MONTNS Figure 24 100%-p go%+ 80%+ 70%+ 60%+f 50%+ 40%+ 30%+f %AriasIntensity20%+-SEED -Spectrally Matched 10%+f740%a 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 a faba AC0.1 + 0.01 + 0.001 0.0001 0.00001 + 0.000001 --FourierAmplitude0.0000001 + -SEED --Spectrally Matched 1E-08 1€-09 sat ni [ee ee ee ee 1 'fo a ee nm i 0.01 1.00 Frequency (Hz) fo SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,reliable energy fee the neat 109 years SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT Slab M8.0 69th Percentile -Arias Intensity &Fourier Transform MONTNS Figure 25 0.6 + 04 + --Spectrally Matched --SEED 0.2 +Acceleration(g)oOo0.2 + AL ae 10 50 Time (s) -Spectrally Matched -SEED =-Velocity(cm/s)RrOoQo=10 20 ; 50 Time (s) 1.5 -Spectrally Matched --SEED 0.5 oea|rég0.5 4 NormalizedDisplacement15 + 10 50 60 Time (s) 70 -Z- SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean.rehiabse enesgy tor tne neat 109 gears. SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT Slab M8.0 69th Percentile -SEED &SPECTRALLY MATCHED Acceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time Histories MONTUD Figure 26 --SEED 0 10 20 30 0 50 60 70Time(s) ° -SEED 10 we OT | iEftMPayintyA||Baia |ais=.i -10 -15 0 10 20 30 ime (s)50 60 70 Displacement(cm))pSp7|,<=yy5oIOe10 20 30 40 : 50 60 70Time(s) zw SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Slab M8.0 69th Percentile-SEED Figure 27Clean,reticble energyforthe nent 109 years Acceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time Histories MONTUD 0.6 7 -- Spectrally Matched L 0.4 +Acceleration(g)m)NiiviNIN Nb mnnnnte- 20 ; 50 60 Time (s) -Spectrally Matched o--ikVelocity(cm/s)iii | 20 50 60 Time (s) 70 -Spectrally Matched 10 f \,[py *ww PALA AoOWwWI WW ryoO|A, | |Displacement(cm)\ | |nrwn'NOotTNa20 . ; 50 60 Time (s) 70 SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,rvistle energy for tne neat 169 pears. Slab M8.0 69th Percentile -SPECTRALLY MATCHED Acceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time Histories MONTUD Figure 28 3.5 -SEED -Spectrally Matched -TARGET 2.5 15 |AA SpectralAcceleration(g)Period (s) 10.00 *SEED record scaled to the peak ground acceleration prior to spectra!matching. SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Slab M8.0 69th Percentile -Before and After Spectral Matching Cleaa.reliable energy for the neat 109 years MONTUD Figure 29 100% 90%+if80%+ a i 60%+j50%+ 40%+f f %AriasIntensity™I A20%+- -SEED -Spectrally Matched "i Ae 70 01 + 0.01 + 0.001 + 6.0001 + 0.00001 -- 0.000001 --FourierAmplitude-SEED --Spectrally Matched 0.0000001 + 1E-08 + 1E-09 py aad n 1 a rT 0.01 0.10 1.00 10.00 Frequency (Hz) SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO reinaiie energy forthe neat 162 yearsthead SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT Slab M8.0 69th Percentile -Arias Intensity &Fourier Transform MONTUD Figure 30 --Spectrally Matched -SEED Acceleration(g)Ooslit imanclNea 0 ; 10 30 Time (s) -Spectrally Matched -SEED a\\NAA Naw Not A meeA A oa rnes|iHye nite Velocity(cm/s)oO-==rv ¥aa20 30 40 50 60Time(s) 15 --Spectrally Matched -SEED i=ia_f .js-MALTA Aa ier f=)wnVIL ew NormalizedDisplacementOoaa-oeian as +i 4. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Time {(s) pw SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Cleon,reticle energy for the nent 109 years Slab M8.0 69th Percentile -SEED &SPECTRALLY MATCHED Acceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time Histories STTECO90 Figure 31 -SEED 2uNoOoAcceleration(g)mlny ii i WEEE |AL | - -SEED Velocity(cm/s)bOooO=----|eae-be---J-30+ -40 59 f+pe 0 10 20 0 40 sO 60 70Time(s) 8 be, E -SEED 6 r i" ;__t z,He g cok MIM TE UIA fg:"AE VA Vt YE VY'a2 . a |y v V Z vo Va 4 ¥ -6 8 Pa Fa a a SO 0 10 20 i¢)40 50 60 70 Time (s) --SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Slab M8.0 69th Percentile -SEED Figure 32Acceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time HistoriesClean,rebable energy for the next 109 years.STTECOSO --Spectrally Matched Acceleration(g)o:1 if |gif!1 -i al i 10 20 30 40 sO 60Time(s)70 --Spectrally Matched ad-aa===u-aVelocity(cm/s)oaNoO10 20 30 40 50 "60Time(s) -Spectrally Matched =>E>Displacement(cm)10 20 30 40 50 60Time{s)70 -Z- SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Cleao,rebable energy for the neat 105 yeors. SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT Slab M8.0 69th Percentile -SPECTRALLY MATCHED Acceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time Histories STTECO90 Figure 33 3.5 -SEED -Spectrally Matched -TARGET 3 2.5 - {oT} - Cc iS _ =2 ion 2 i) [3] uo Ci -1.5 fae] = _ (S) tc) [ox ry 0.5 0.01 0.10 1.00 Period (s) 10.00 *SEED record scaled to the peak ground acceleration prior to spectral matching. a SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean rehable rpergy for the nent 108 yours SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT Slab M8.0 69th Percentile -Before and After Spectral Matching STTECOS0 Figure 34 100% 90%+i<--80%+|/70%+iry60%+"n E SG :J250%+ =C /Ww 40%+ <=[ to aox f4C E -SEED --Spectrally Matched 20% mT i,0%fe i)10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Time (s) 1 E 0.1 + 0.01 o 0.001 +ce}E Zz i" =0.0001 +a F E [ <<0.00001 + -E a ; 5 0.000001 +Ad F -SEED -Spectrally Matched 0.000001 -¢ 1E-08 + 1£-09 4 11 tity SEE 4 0.01 0.10 1.00 10.00 100.00 Frequency (Hz) SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECze. SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Slab M8.0 69th Percentile -Arias Intensity &Fourier Transform Figure 35 Clean sehatle eneegy tad the next 1025 6ars STTECO90 --Spectrally Matched -SEED Acceleration(g)-0.8 1+--+++-t 0 10 20 30 40 sO 60Time(s)} sO 0 -Spectrally Matched -SEED4 AAAs ada hh LN pA po Velocity(cm/s)AE EV pov yy We wy ¥¥ -40 -50 t+++- is)10 20 0 40 50 60Time(s) 1.5 E --Spectrally Matched -SEED 1 9inNY ANAS Na fAWw NormalizedDisplacementQo-0.5 1 -1 15 ++-++-4 +t 0 10 20 Oo.40 s0 60 Time (s) r SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,relichle erergy far the meet 109 years. Slab M8.0 69th Percentile -SEED &SPECTRALLY MATCHED Acceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time Histories STTEC180 Figure 36 -SEED Acceleration(g)oOE -SEED 40 Velocity(cm/s)o--==|__-F--[73>Time (s) --SEED Displacement(cm)é>-4_--PL-[>>->=B>>S -10 "15 Fa 0 10 20 50 60 70 Time (s) we SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO _Slab M8.0 69th Percentile -SEED Figure 37 Cleon,retiable energy for the nee 199 yeurs Acceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time Histories STTEC180 -Spectrally Matched Acceleration(g)-0.8 t 0 10 20 50 60 70Time(s) 50 --Spectrally Matched40 30 20 i Ay |I |fy IAA A Aa A Ady am ona adSsripaacttse™)Velocity(cm/s).yur fi Vv"wT we V¥Y Time (s) 15 i,Hl ---Spectrally Matched Displacement(cm)b5b--p-- __|ae_--=a:;>_->--wa>DP>>>-10 +-tpie]10 20 50 60 70Time(s) ,SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT :Slab M8.0 69th Percentile -SPECTRALLY MATCHED :A-WATANA HYDRO Figure 38SUSITN:ae enetqy for ihe nest '97 yeurs Acceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time Historiesfron,refichle energy for the nent "D5 years., STTEC180 -SEED -Spectrally Matched3.5 -TARGET 15 SpectralAcceleration(g)-0.5 0.01 0.10 1.00 10.00 Period (s) *SEED record scaled to the peak ground acceleration prior to spectral matching. SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECTea SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Slab M8.0 69th Percentile -Before and After Spectral Matching Cleve.rehaible energy for the next WO years :-STTEC180 Figure 39 100% 390% 80% 70% 60% 50%+ 40%+ 30%+%AriasIntensity-SEED -Spect rally Matched20%+ ;-Z0%r rl 1 1 1 1 7 4 4.A =1 4 nm n 1 1 4 nm 1 1 4 1 70 0.01 E 3-S5--=eearr=oe0.001 + 0.0001 + 0.00001 + 0.000001 +FourierAmplitudeSEED -Spectrally Matched 0,0000001 + 1E-08 + 1€-09 bt 0.01 0.10 1.00 10. Frequency (Hz) -Z_-SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean sex sble energy far the mest 10 years Slab M8.0 69th Percentile -Arias Intensity &Fourier Transform STTEC180 Figure 40 0.6 [-Spectrally Matched --SEED Acceleration(g)Oo-0.4 | 10.6 {a i?)10 20 30 40 50 60 Time (s) 50 + aot -Spectrally Matched --SEED 30 + 20 E z 10 £7Ei|[s}i} -cr : 4 i Lk cn aA N ona ASOfeatpnRANvikypalyofPennantoSEis}E .3 -10 +>ot-20 + 30 + -40 -50 t 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Time (s) L5 [ -Spectrally Matched --SEED - i a i o 9 co a 2 a a aN rr] E (=) 2 -15 t + -_-_-+t t +t i)10 20 30 40 50 60 Time (s) :SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT-w-- . SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Slab M8.0 69th Percentile -SEED &SPECTRALLY MATCHED Figure 41 .Acceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time HistoriesClean,reUcble crergy for tne neat 100 years STTECUP 06 7 -SEED Acceleration(g)-0.6 + 30.40 50 60Time(s) -SEED Velocity(cm/s)fo)n L .1 4 ,1 L L nl }1 fi n L 1 10 20 30,40 50 60Time(s) -SEED AU a eee Displacement(cm)o10 30 ;me (s)40 50 60 I SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Cteen.reliable energy for the next 109 years. SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT Slab M8.0 69th Percentile -SEED Acceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time Histories STTECUP Figure 42 -Spectrally Matched Acceleration(g)it iliWee yt FRET OS ee ST 20 30_,40 50 .60 Time (s) -Spectrally Matched I JN 4 |{ |A SOR RATE AA ian EE OO SEs Ip Po onVelocity(cm/s)BoBS-30 -40 -50 ++t+t ++ 0 10 20 0.40 50 60 Time (s) 12 + 10 E -Spectrally Matched 8 - 5 4 f7(i Dobe I Dapzy"VA ADE Ves a2 ni «fl 8 | "10 ++ 0 10 20 30,40 so 60 Time (s) -f-SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean.rebable energy for the neat 109 years Slab M8.0 69th Percentile -SPECTRALLY MATCHED Acceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time Histories STTECUP Figure 43 -SEED -Spectrally Matched 2.5 -TARGET 1.5 f SpectralAcceleration(g)0.01 0.10 1.00 Period (s) 10.00 *SEED record scaled to the peak ground acceleration prior to spectral matching. a SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT-- SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Slab M8.0 69th Percentile -Before and After Spectral Matching Clean rebatte eoecgy fos the veat 100 yeas STTECUP Figure 44 100%+oo90%+jf80%+i70%+/Zz 60%+=So /2 50%+ £E 7)4 +o 40%+<= <30%+4 [ t --SEED --Spectrally Matched20%+A10%+oo0%C 4 1 +1 L -L 1 4 1 A L re +4.L 1 1 +4 4.1 1 +”ra 4 4 + 0)10 20 : 30 40 50 60 70 Time (s) 1 0.1 + 0.01 + a 5 S 0.001 4#& =0.0001 + a E Pa i OY 0.00001 +=E 3 °- -SEED --Spectrally Matchedte0.000001 + 0.0000001 + 1E-08 .+.:bf pt ty oe 0.01 0.10 1.00 10.00 Frequency (Hz) SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECTfF SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Slab M8.0 69th Percentile -Arias Intensity &Fourier Transform Figure 45 Clean retintie energy for the nee?IO9 yraes STTECUP 0.8 0.6 -Spectrally Matched -SEED Acceleration(g)20 |t } 40 , 60 80 100 Time (s) --Spectrally Matched --SEED iif k 1A ||ikki ikkeTOVN Velocity(cm/s)fan]Hiail |I ad 20 40 60 80 100Time(s) --Spectrally Matched -SEED |Ar Aceh ANd Mal AAA AAR a ii yr Woy wi yyy NormalizedDisplacementoO<:qqDSaaa=[a-1 15 |t ;t 20 40 . 60 80 100 Time (s) x.SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Slab M7.5 84th Percentile -SEED &SPECTRALLY MATCHED Figure 46 Clean,refadte eneras for the neat 109 years,-Acceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time Histories MYGOOSEW --SEED oa : &I Wllleshi Vatila oat ,, 7 || 0 20 40 Time (s)80 100 6 -SEED 4 NI0Ne&Velocity(cm/s)fo)|ae!an'cooDa40 ; 60 80 100Time(s) -SEED Nbhwuray)$3pantDisplacement(cm)Souw-0.5 \l \4 ')|i y {4 4 | -15 V 2 +: ++t 20 40 . 60 80 100Time(s) x.SUSITNA-WATANA _PROJECT SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Slab M7.5 84th Percentile -SEED Clean,refatle energy for the neat 109 gears.Acceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time Histories MYGOOSEW Figure 47 -Spectrally Matched iiiiniHiyiTs dik a had cca pechconenm Acceleration(g)0)20 40 60 80 100Time(s) .°E --Spectrally Matched 30 .' 20 Ht Zio +|'|til '\. an:tiie salt tA Ahhhace:AA (Oey$0 ry TI ri t i 20 -30 : "0 20 :'0 a 30 100Time(s) *-Spectrally Matched 15 <10 2,Hf 7 dd LU il AWA Ada NA.i TRE ay eseveyyeao.||Yt ! 10 an 0 '0 a 60 20 100Time(s) , SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT SUSITNAAWATANA HYDRO _cak NTS care"SPECRALY WATERED igure a 7 gy for the nest 109 years,MYGOOSEW 3 -SEED :-Spectrally Matched 25 TARGET tw | - =|2 fad © i 2 fo]15 Lo) Oo <{ o hen - (S] co]2.1 -r 0.5 )+, 0.01 0.10 1.00 Period (s) 10.00 *SEED record scaled to the peak ground acceleration prior to spectral matching. -w- SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,eebiable energy for thr neat 109 pears SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT Slab M7.5 84th Percentile -Before and After Spectral Matching MYGOOSEW Figure 49 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50%+ 40%+%AriasIntensity30%+ 20%+- SEED -Spectrally Matched 10%+wy0%i .%+4.4 1 120 A01+ 0.01 +°8L/M 0.0001 +FourierAmplitude0.00001 +Ped nd ad S anes ffSCCSPectial 0.000001 + 0.0000001 pit a poo oere 0.00 0.10 1.00 10.00 Frequency (Hz) 100.00 Zz SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean rebudie enecgy for the neat I1G7 years SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT Slab M7.5 84th Percentile -Arias intensity &Fourier Transform MYGOOSEW Figure 50 08 + '--Spectrally Matched -SEED 3..fgf -0.8 :t t ++t 0 20 40 ;. 60 80 100Time(s) 50 +, 40 ;-Spectrally Matched -SEED 30 20 } g 10 E it al n tt il {it ft 1 |A |rn fA bof Ds A AM ANA HAM fa ML aa aSolMyLAEWVeyoF1TEryoYV -20 ;: -30 ; 0 ¢ -50 E ++-+++ 0 20 40 . 60 80 100Time(s) 15 -Spectrally Matched -SEED 1 Eos A |- BE TU ALANAA AAA A sateVPARPene=-0.5 Y ++aa : "1 15 t t +t +- 0 20 40 ; 60 80 100Time(s) --f-SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT Slab M7.5 84th Percentile -SEED &SPECTRALLY MATCHED 1SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Acceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time Histories Figure 51 : MYGOOSNS --SEED a ee eS Se cc cS ca Sc Sc Se Sa Ss Sey Cale Sa (a SOUS Seva Ran SY©a--SEED Velocity(cm/s)&B®©NYBFOFRMYWwWBAUwj- -SEED (lochMCWhatha!yyy eweDisplacement(cm)oO1|<+===='eeezw SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Slab M7.5 84th Percentile -SEED Figure 52 Clean.weiable energy for the peat 109 years,Acceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time Histories ,MYGOOSNS id P dq + -- =< -| i 3 =) 3-fo ° us] <= Go [s] aa oO a 2 £ -- 2 pf & o = oT = . = - = (ee 2 = -. = > E e <= 3 =] 3 S See $ --- a g a 8. = a B + 2 t+St nw =%, ”"- v7) pp a =< Ss = ---L = ° yt 9° cS oo pF oo) = --ae--- |4 = = -----ot er =a Ts ae aa - a = : i: = Lene = 4 Ss = << = i = ---, aa - aa : 3° 4 ° = o> == e_ td Saeed - SE - = = = C = E = E --_-_ EF --- E SS SS= jae| a = = [See + = --s- Sena a ° g ---- + - + QE eo-_ ---------- EEE SS = _ =e = A [== =e eee SS a a ee eee fe ee - seee ---4 SS __ a cee oon eet -- oenelGeel | . eger otee -= foS = = KES= g = g 2 | , > Paar Grarreres Srarerares SPaPara eran wrerers rere OPO = pet tt a poppe cowo+nN°Ntwooe) °2°°°°°°°° om op tT NO MWF©HOOD pySo3o 36Py3tT”a a ax)aFtoa =) (8) uonesajazoy {s/uud) Ay20/9A (wa) juawase \dsia Figure53 10080 ntile -SPECTRALLY MATCHED MYGOOSNS 60 SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT .Slab M7.5 84th Perce Time (s) Acceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time Histories 4020 SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,rehable energy tor the nent 169 years, -SEED -Spectrally Matched 2.5 -TARGET 15 yw!SpectralAcceleration(g)0.5 0.01 0.10 1.00 10.00 Period (s) *SEED record scaled to the peak ground acceleration prior to spectral matching. SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECTie SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Slab M7.5 84th Percentile -Before and After Spectral Matching Figure 54 Qleaa,rehable energy foe the vest 169 years MYGOOSNS 100% .90%+ 80%+ 70%+ 60%+ 50%+ 40%+%AriasIntensity30%+ 20%+i -SEED -Spectrally Matched 10% o%+ 20 40 60 80 . 100 120 0.1 0.01 + 0.001 + 0.0001 +FourierAmplitude0.00001 Wa -SEED ---Spectrally Matched 0.000001 0.0000001 0.00 'ewe!1.ae aanust 0.01 0.10 1.00 10.00 Frequency (Hz) 100.00 Zz SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,echatle energy fer tre next 108 years SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT Slab M7.5 84th Percentile -Arias Intensity &Fourier Transform MYGOO9NS Figure 55 --Spectrally Matched -SEED Acceleration(g)80 100 -Spectrally Matched -SEED Velocity(cm/s)BoG80 100 15 --Spectrally Matched -SEED uALMAN AIAaM ADABs Pa ped amyeyWyY"v Vy yor ey W V V VV¥|i05 NormalizedDisplacemento80 10060 Time (s) SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT-- SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Slab M7.5 84th Percentile -SEED &SPECTRALLY MATCHED Figure 56Acceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time Histories MYGO009UDCican,rehotiy erergy for the neat IO yeors. --SEED Acceleration(g)fo]20 40 60 Time (s)80 100 -SEED myVelocity(cm/s) -!-xs--FTI |ly NMiiMHih eresSiA 20 40 60 Time (s)80 : 100 1.5 -SEED 0.5 i Mh I aA daefh {hy mas oh ph',Displacement(cm)0 l oN \\05 +ie i [ 20 40 60 Time (s) 80 100 SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT Slab M7.5 84th Percentile -SEED Acceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time Histories MYGO09UD Figure 57 --Spectrally Matched Acceleration(g)OoAVN adultARALURAL ee terme-| i 20 40 . 60 80 100 Time (s) '-Spectrally Matched Velocity(cm/s)on |re0i'w hg i i f \Hh hu haltleaal,haiaolisleil:i eee ee 20 40 60 80 100Time(s) -Spectrally Matched \nN |illus woh al ANNady (Ss amen ap Displacement(cm)We iipays yorey pov VY -10 20 40 ' 60 80 100 Time (s) SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Cicon,rebable creegy for the nest 109 yeves SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT Slab M7.5 84th Percentile -SPECTRALLY MATCHED Acceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time Histories MYGO0SUD Figure 58 --SEED -Spectrally Matched -TARGET \ 1.8 16 1.4 -, oo - c °1.2 >L © = a] i)1 [S] [S) < g 0.8 -_. (S] td) toe WY \ MN 0.4 0.2 0.01 0.10 "1.00 Period (s) 10.00 *SEED record scaled to the peak ground acceleration prior to spectral matching. ze SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,rehoble energy for the ert 199 years SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT Slab M7.5 84th Percentile -Before and After Spectral Matching MYGO09UD Figure 59 100%oo90%J.80%f r=60%7) 5 i250% =[wno 40% <= <30% 3x -SEED -Spectrally Matched 20%}10%r Ww0%--4 0 20 40 60 _80 100 120 Time (s) 1 0.1 + 0.01 (3)ZS [S 2 0001 +a.E £' <0.0001 +_E() <= 5 [ 2 0.00001 +SEED- --Spectrally Matched 0.000001 0.0000001 4 ap py wits 0.00 0.01 0.10 1.00 10.00 100.00 Frequency (Hz) SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT-_- SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Slab M7.5 84th Percentile -Arias Intensity &Fourier Transform Figure 60 Clean releatie energy tor he neat 162 yeare MYGOO0SUD n E --Spectrally Matched -SEED Acceleration(g)oTime (s) --Spectrally Matched --SEED Velocity(cm/s)o&5==TI20 f -30 40 -50 + i?)10 20 so 60 70Time(s) 15 f -Spectrally Matched -SEED 1 e | E os t \in :|f h A Ry=[ Bo fm \A Ny A NA A pA,Arei|Wi YY YS£05 +iy 5 |yab -1 1.5 t 0 10 20 50 60 70Time(s) Ze.SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT . fa SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Slab M7.5 84th Percentile -SEED &SPECTRALLY MATCHED Figure 61 Clean refiobie energy far the next (09 yeas Acceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time Histories MONTEW i)w-SEED 9NoHnAcceleration(g)oo=0 10 20 30 40 sO 60 70 Time (s) -SEED 10+Velocity(cm/s)0 Linh \|loaLON tye Af pry -10 -15 E -20 E t 0 10 20 50 60 70 Time (s) 8 -SEED .|4 mi2 #2 h YMA Taf ADs8yfONtitiftAYNan Np:Tea2| V |"V-4 + 6 4 o 10 20 so 60 70 Time (s} a SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT Slab M7.5 84th Percentile -SEED ' -YDRO Figure 62SUSITNAWATANAHAcceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time Historiesan,reid energy for the nes eves.MONTEW . 0.8 -Spectrally Matched 0.6 -0.2 ||Acceleration(g)oze==70Time(s) - Spectrally Matched eo-teaberin|!i Mi Wh,pha Hut phefae'ah;aint HAyyy yes "Velocity(cm/s)oO:NOo=ie)10 20 30 40 50 60Time(s) -Spectrally Matched Pal Ds alWreyeDisplacement(cm}oO>70Time(s) zt.SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT - Acceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time HistoriesCleon,rehable energy for the next 109 years, .MONTEW Figure 63 3 -SEED -Spectrally Matched 25 TARGET ce | -- S 8 N (0;ae2 |Av15| 1%) << we ; See 1s) a C\h1rv)VY 0.5 0 + 0.01 0.10 Period (s) *SEED record scaled to the peak ground acceleration prior to spectral matching. ee SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean tebstie et ray fos ike neat 100 years SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT Slab M7.5 84th Percentile -Before and After Spectral Matching MONTEW Figure 64 100%7 - oo pe80%+/70%+jEz60%+7)an:/2 50%+ ='|2 40%+ =OU xt a0%fxL [-SEED -Spectrally Matched20%+yi F wz0%+-aa ++ 1)-10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Time (s) 1 aS 5 3 0.001 4 a r £0.0001 + a E _L ©0.00001 +hh E 3 2 7-SEED -Spectrally Matched0.000001 + 0.0000001 + 1E-08 pt iy pt EEE ESEEEEeeE TELE 0.01 0.10 1.00 10.00 100.00 Frequency (Hz) SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT-y SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Slab M7.5 84th Percentile -Arias Intensity &Fourier Transform Figure 65 Clean retichte energy?for tag vert 109 years MONTEW 08 7 -Spectrally Matched -SEED 06 + °"ivateHh ia:iAcceleration(g)E 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Time (s) -- Spectrally Matched --SEED Velocity(cm/s)°o====---sTime (s) -Spectrally Matched --SEED AT Raial]cinceaJwNormalizedDisplacemento-0.5 L |1 : 15 +'n ++}t 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Time (s) r SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT Slab M7.5 84th Percentile -SEED &SPECTRALLY MATCHED i -DRO Figure 66SUSITNA-WATANA HYD Acceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time Histories ania ,MONTNS ;| --SEED -|\|[|analau ut hilhal |baeli int IAIN nernnn nan <01 !+i 0.3 i 20 30 rime (s)20 50 60 70 iol2)7 mnie PI a pat poten-WLM 15 , ”10 20 30 rime (s)40 50 co 70 ;| a ll pba eT OO Repeeete «|| .10 20 30 rimets)40 50 69 70 on Sao NTS baconSD niques?SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO .Cleoa,refiedse ereray for the nest 100 yeues.Acceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time Histories MONTNS -Spectrally Matched E 0.4 + ft Hi |Lat de Zp.HyiAcceleration(g)! ipeaaa=e)reSSereaetSSoe--oti-ie)40 Time (s) -Spectrally Matched wt hl |4 ;; a th pF erVelocity(cm/s)oO==a=i=-_-'0 40 Time (s)Displacement(cm)20 30 40 50 60 vo) -20 Time (s) zw SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT Slab M7.5 84th Percentile -SPECTRALLY MATCHED i -A HYDRO Figure 68SUSITNA.WATANA woo years Acceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time Histories nin MONTNS -SEED -Spectrally Matched -TARGET --3 2.5 a,OD 2 a c 2 _ ie") = a feb)1.5 rs) Oo < G i oa) (Ss) QQa 1 - Y 0.5 0 0.014 Period (s) 10.00 *SEED record scaled to the peak ground acceleration prior to spectral matching. SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,rebable evergy tor the neat 120 years SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT Slab M7.5 84th Percentile -Before and After Spectral Matching MONTNS Figure 69 %AriasIntensity-SEED -Spectrally Matched 20 30 40 50 60 70 o1 4 0.01 0.001 + 0.0001 + 0.00001 0.000001 FourierAmplitudeiki -SEED --Spectrally Matched i .0.0000001 + l 1-08 1E-09 24 1 n go nm rae eae See ae a 0.01 0.10 1.00 10.00 Frequency (Hz) 100.00 we SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Cleon teteabie energy for the next 109 years, SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT Slab M7.5 84th Percentile -Arias Intensity &Fourier Transform MONTNS Figure 70 -Spectrally Matched -SEED Acceleration(g)}-0.4 t t +++ i?)10 20 50 60 70Time(s) 50 40 --Spectrally Matched -SEED 30 Velocity(em/s)==-20 E -30 E -4o + -50 +t t ++:' ie}10 20 30 40 so 60 70Time(s) 15 [ -Spectrally Matched -SEED 1 .= a Eos ¢Vi ua .8 aBo tee A a -f rt\,[.Ne =rae |Wy VFX TSNi 2-05 3 \2 -1 -15 +'t ,+' 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70Time(s) we SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Slab M7.5 84th Percentile -SEED &SPECTRALLY MATCHED Figure 71 Clear,rehobte energy for the next (09 yours,Acceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time Histories MONTUD 0.2 -SEED A aT be | CE AVA ARNAN memento---T i} 0.2 +}'. t i 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70Time(s) 15 |-SEED 10 +|=>t )€c : SE aaa Mu li il |z °roving i Vi iy"Hy ) 2 [\S$st | t ao + ast + ie)10 20 40 50 60 70Time(s) 6 5 t \--SEED 4t mp|a eee eee20awa ZN Lr°Ny E |[)Mv we Vwiiaf a .0 10 30 30 40 50 60 70 :Time (s) -=SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Slab M7.5 84th Percentile -SEED Figure 72 Acceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time Histories MONTUD -Spectrally Matched Acceleration(g)0 10 20 30 40 50 60Time(s)70 ayTY=Velocity(cm/s)ane|20 30 40 so 60Time(s) 0 fey Displacement(cm)20 30 40 .50 60Time(s)70 -f- SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Cicon,tefiadic energy for the neet 109 ycurs SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT Slab M7.5 84th Percentile -SPECTRALLY MATCHED Acceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time Histories MONTUD Figure 73 -SEED -Spectrally Matched -TARGET 3 2.5 "ad 2 -- c 2 @t= a wy 15 (Ss) (S) <q Chae (Ss) Vv a 1 ” 0.5 /al 0 0.01 Period (s) *SEED record scaled to the peak ground acceleration prior to spectral matching. Ze SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Ctean,rehable energy for the neat lod yet SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT Slab M7.5 84th Percentile -Before and After Spectral Matching MONTUD Figure 74 100%+ 90%+ 80%+ 70%+ 60%+ 50%+ 40%+ 30%+%AriasIntensity-SEED -Spectrally Matched 0%+ "eewa 20 30 40 50 60 70 0.01 + 0.001 + 0.0001 + 0.00001 + 0.000001 +FourierAmplitude-SEED _-Spectrally Matched 0.0000001 1E-08 + at 1 Pe oe ee ee ee ea 1 1 fd1E-09. 0.01 0.10 1.00 10.00 Frequency (Hz) 100.00 -w- SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean.static energy fur the neat 109 year, SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT Slab M7.5 84th Percentile -Arias Intensity &Fourier Transform MONTUD Figure 75 --Spectrally Matched -SEED Acceleration(g)0.8 ++t +fa + 0 10 20 . 40 50 60 70Time(s) 50 --Spectrally Matched -SEED40 30 ctNintana Na Aw AmWVeiye my Velocity(cm/s)-40 -50 + 0 10 20 so 60 70Time(s) 15 [-Spectrally Matched -SEED 1 2 [ 5 L E os A y r 8 5 =Ao tee anh |TAR.Na Adan onzoo”Wa)|W\VW SY vyNL E05 ;tk ih y5 2 j "1 15 fo it)10 20 30 40 50 60 70 7 Time (s) SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECTie SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Slab M7.5 84th Percentile :SEED &SPECTRALLY MATCHED Figure 76Acceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time HistoriesClean,reliable energy tor rhe neat 109 years, STTECO90 ryidoe)--SEED idanSoeSAcceleration(g)10 ; 50 60Time(s)70 -SEED AHi[yay Nir aN AD pr A pcaneewyVelocity(cm/s)OoESnO ¥ 10-0 40 Time (s)50 60 '-SEED rf Nwa AutAp ll ! NA \PULAthsA qnN| Jy wy Nev Disptacement(cm)o10 20 30 so 60 Time (s)70 --_- SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,rekable ecergy for the next 100 years. SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT Slab M7.5 84th Percentile -SEED Acceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time Histories STTECO90 Figure 77 08 + E -- SEED 0.6 ' 0.4 L | So!(||Hh,5s.|'lin ll i |<ohtli IHU penneeee!|0.4 + -0.6 "0 10 20 Time (s) 50 60 70 40 --SEED 30 + 20 E z ||€10be |eiH !|i iyLiftgate hho -10 [-°-20 | -30 "”0 10 20 30 Time (s)40 50 60 70 = -SEED .|_4 'i (Lo !mI iEBote'At MLL |A MN Nan Ayaoe'|i.WT yyw "yee e*4 y °0 10 :70 Time (s) 50 60 70 r.-_-"HYDRO PROJECT SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Acceleration,Veloty and DisplacementTimeHorie Figure 78leanrhablneyfarthenen109yerees -SEED -Spectrally Matched 2.5 --TARGET 15 SpectralAcceleration(g)0.5 0.01 Period (s) 10.00 *SEED record scaled to the peak ground acceleration prior to spectral matching. -w- SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,reliable energy for the newt 109 pears SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT Slab M7.5 84th Percentile -Before and After Spectral Matching STTECO90 Figure 79 100%+ 90%+ 80%+ 70%+ ian fF "Tr60% 50% 40% 30%+%AriasIntensity-SEED -Spectrally Matched20%+ 10%+oes 0.1 0.01 0.001 0.0001 0.00001 0.000001 FourierAmplitudeSEED -Spectrally Matched 0.0000001 1E-08 + 1-09 ** 0.01 oe in |er ae me Se Oe 1 1 1.00 Frequency (Hz) ze SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,rehable energy for the next 100 years SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT Slab M7.5 84th Percentile -Arias Intensity &Fourier Transform STTECOSO Figure 80 -Spectrally Matched -SEED Acceleration(g)HIN APnenti" -0.8 +++--+ 0 10 20 50 60 70Time(s) 50 , 40 -Spectrally Matched -SEED Velocity(cm/s)vIn nny NA Aa A npr NppeainalWVWwyyanMei -40 -50 ++++ 0 10 20 50 60 70Time(s) 15 [ -Spectrally Matched -SEED 1 5 s 0s +I ja ="a ven ANA F aN AN A.RA aha3Ww|I \y"v)y Yow WV8 e£0.55 y Vyz -1 15 +tt .+-- ie)10 20 : so 60 70Time(s) .y.SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Slab M7.5 84th Percentile -SEED &SPECTRALLY MATCHED Clean.reliutle energy for the neat 169 years. Figure 81Acceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time Histories STTEC180 08 1 E -SEED Acceleration(g)Time (s) -SEED ot 4 f \*|ARRAAR Laman pan -10 af fl T Velocity(cm/s)=aTime (s) 15 -- SEED 10 + |L, at ial AU nA Al yaaa ApenedAinaOW|-10+Displacement(cm)215 0 10 20 . so 60 70 Time (s) SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECTZz Slab M7.5 84th Percentile -SEED iATANAHYDROFigure82SUSITNA-W.MTA\'enent 100 eo,Acceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time Histories ' STTEC180 08 + 0.6 + -Spectrally Matched sdivAcceleration(g)Oofu)\FEI ibe eee $$] Fe a ee SS SS SS CS SS TS OS SS TY ONO CO OY SY SU SYt -Spectrally Matched pi h.MAM A AA A tatefh pn Velocity(cm/s)oOiy Wey fi yur YWvowe wy==12 rayo-Displacement(cm)&maBNONBDHWwa°a dk ld aTt Time (s) Zz SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Cleon.rebable energy tor tre nest 169 years. SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT Slab M7.5 84th Percentile -SPECTRALLY MATCHED Acceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time Histories STTEC180 Figure 83 3.5 -SEED -Spectrally Matched -TARGET 2.5 1.5 SpectralAcceleration(g)0.5 0.01 0.10 1.00 Period (s) 10.00 *SEED record scaled to the peak ground acceleration prior to spectral matching. SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECTTe SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Slab M7.5 84th Percentile -Before and After Spectral Matching Clean,rehuble enegy for the peat 100 years STTEC180 Figure 84 100% 80%: "wl ff 60%[ 50%[ 40%| 30%f20%+fi10%+ 0%+1 a a eS ee%AriasIntensity-SEED -- Spectrally Matched 0.1 0.01 + 0.001 0.0001 0.00001 - 0.000001 FourierAmplitude-SEED --Spectrally Matched 0.0000001 1£-08 + 1E-09 1.pa 1 to 'oar arene ere :.pera 0.01 0.10 1.00 10.00 100.00 Frequency (Hz) SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT-z-: SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Slab M7.5 84th Percentile -Arias Intensity &Fourier Transform Figure 85 Clean,rehatle energy foe the neat 100 years .STTEC180 0.6 1 -Spectrally Matched -SEED 04 +2°N:'bill Acceleration(g)o©N1 ri 1 |4 a 1 1 i 4 .1 1 iz 50 60 Time (s) -Spectrally Matched -SEED 7 All Velocity(cm/s)oa50 60Time(s) 15 -Spectrally Matched -SEED NormalizedDisplacementoO50 60 Time (s) 70 -w SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean.rehable energy tur the neat 109 years. Slab M7.5 84th Percentile -SEED &SPECTRALLY MATCHED Acceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time Histories STTECUP Figure 86 --SEED SneAcceleration(g)oOoiobi irane arhNi 10 20 50 60Time(s)70 1 -SEED Velocity(cm/s)fon]=:=<-10 20 Oo 40 50 60Time(s) --SEED nN|at|[wa ed An nol DA 'NDAT VU Displacement(cm)Oo&:an'aoooa10 20 . 50 60Time(s)70 -- SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Cleo.an,reliable ene tgy for the neat 10a years. SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT Slab M7.5 84th Percentile -SEED _Acceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time Histories STTECUP Figure 87 --Spectrally Matched we IA rennet ne Acceleration(g)Time (s) --Spectrally Matched 0 Eau LoNIULMAAN ALA tape ece acccan Velocity(cm/s)Ad Nenana I -30 + 20 50 60 Time (s) 10+-Spectrally Matched f || Wiha.A Aa.nal0$e A7Vv"(yey ese Displacement(cm)eae0 10 20 300 40 50 60 Time (s) 70 ze SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Cleon,reliable energy far The aest 102 years. SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT Slab M7.5 84th Percentile -SPECTRALLY MATCHED Acceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time Histories STTECUP Figure 88 2.5 -SEED -Spectrally Matched -TARGET |»|VhSpectralAcceleration(g)0.5 A 0.01 0.10 1.00 Period (s) 10.00 *SEED record scaled to the peak ground acceleration prior to spectral matching. SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECTfe SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Slab M7.5 84th Percentile -Before and After Spectral Matching Gian,rebable energy for the neat 109 rears STTECU Pp Figure 89 100%7 90%+ 80%+ 70%+ 60%+]50%+|40%+ 30%+%AriasIntensity-SEED -Spectrally Matched20%+A10%+ 0%fo raaseen 20 30 40 50 60 70 O14 :aah be flay 0.01 +Peedi y,y Petacraatyin! 0.001 +:of0.00010.00001 +Ze FourierAmplitude--SEED -Spectrally Matched 0.000001 + 0.0000001 -+£ foe .2 oroere|1E-08 n or ce ae awe 0.01 0.10 T T 1.00 10.00 Frequency (Hz) SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean revatie ene'gy fer the meat 160 years Slab M7.5 84th Percentile -Arias Intensity &Fourier Transform STTECUP Figure 90 0.6 -Spectrally Matched -SEED \Hi Ntif Acceleration(g):: --Spectrally Matched -SEED ==Velocity(cm/s)o&=Isa10 |roy Te | -30 -40 SQ fee 0 10 20 30 40 t 50)60 70 80 90 100 Ime {S. 15 -Spectrally Matched -SEED - 1 :||E os \| yu oO 3BO Saletan AatWWW GE -0.5 :ryez -1 a5 Pep a po 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100Time(s) SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT-Z- SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Interface M9.2 88th Percentile 7 SEED &SPECTRALLY MATCHED Figure 91Acceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time HistoriesClean,rehable energie for the neat 109 pears.CURIEW Horizontal --SEED Velocity(cm/s)8B6----=--Se---ae=aSS-20 -30 -_:' ie)10 20 30 40 _30 60 70 80 30 100 Time (s) 8 --SEED 6 4 i 7 tachas tbh atecaca5poetwlafLamn\ALN AEA ont AA PPA Ut EW VV Z 14 t 6 °0 10 0 30 40 Ti"s (s)60 70 20 90 100 ,SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT . SUSITNA:WATANA HYDRO acceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time Histories Figure 92 CURIEW Horizontal -Spectrally Matched Acceleration(g)10 20 30 40 -Spectrally Matched ind--tmsshi=I<<ta=ae--_-.aa-a|-ay =;--=.-,|FI nea'aa Velocity(cm/s)fen]_10 20 30 60 70 80 90 -Spectrally Matched rayoA r i ra i Ai f\Ml Nev sflal toe rth on saa A _l\_A A Displacement(cm)wnowJqqUpf=>_|tw WV Wo YY yey ly Wwyuy wy VV -10 |-15 it -20 +++| . + * +t ++ a 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100Time(s) z.SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Interface M9.2 88th Percentile -SPECTRALLY MATCHED Figure 93 Clean,retotle energy for the nest 100 years.Acceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time Histories CURIEW Horizontal 2.5 Cp -SEED -Spectrally Matched -TARGET SpectralAcceleration(g)0.5 0.01 0.10 1.00 10.00 Period (s) *SEED record scaled to the peak ground acceleration prior to spectral matching. SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT- SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Interface M9.2 88th Percentile -Before and After Spectral Matching Clean,retable energy lor the neat 120 years CURIEW Horizontal Figure 94 100% 90%+ 80%+ 70%+ 60%+ 50%+ 40%+ 30%+%AriasIntensity*20%+-SEED -Spectrally Matched 10%+ 0%+ 120 0.1 + 0.01 + 0.001 + 0.0001 + 0.00001 +FourierAmplitude-SEED -Spectrally Matched 0.000001 + 0.0000001 + 1E-08 $e thie 0.00 0.10 1.00 Frequency (Hz) 10.00 - SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean reliable energy lor the neat 160 years SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT Interface M9.2 88th Percentile -Arias Intensity &Fourier Transform CURIEW Horizontal Figure 95 --Spectrally Matched -SEED "alt |iaHit4gyi; i T i H H ye f ||i ]{t f if :ah TP a hyfe#4 t ¥nd Ae ree1bi' |Hiwatt ||i 'fui i |'try --rm Fe a OS OS OO OG OE ON GE OT ST SN CY ae-_-etSS--j--= >LT=----ae--s===-----a5aeae+<aiea,0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 S$NormalizedDisplacementoO-Spectrally Matched ---SEED Hh I LAMA amanda:me Anlhatyten7yeeyyeye Pe a a SW SO SO GY ST CY OW OS GO TO YS zr SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,reliable enesgy for the neat 109 years. Interface M9.2 88th Percentile -SEED &SPECTRALLY MATCHED Acceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time Histories CURINS Horizontal Figure 96 -SEED Lia LAVINA |{Po ty .rani WRIT: |\|;| f ie vA APIO){i,Lot ©cae i ae gi AiR ih pl nite ee ny | 4 ih eS ee SS ST a SS CN SY ST Sea aS OT nO STarsa|Velocity(cm/s)||Z2=50 Time (s) 8 '-SEE 6 E 3.)ine |By Ean ay i ha TAN f uLMAA Ad foto hatesi!VALE yyyyiasa 4 ]|6 8 +}+}+--+$$4 +--t : me(s) sw SUSITNA.-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO rface M9.2 88th Percentile -SEE Figure 97Cleon.rehoble energy lr the nest 108 ear.locity and Displacement Time H CURINS Horizonta ! -Spectrally Matched 40 + at l !ee oe xen A LANL AULAALALa MAA ,=ea {i 'iy |i i laStHetey| -40 a 0 10 20 30 0 50 ,60 :0 30 90 100Time(s) 23 7 E -Spectrally Matched 20 ; 15 f -10 E - 5 E {\$At fHeoAATTALPTS ALAA AL Ae eat a£|AU \WV WV !yeeFat|\ -20 + ”0 10 0 30 40 50 60 70 30 90 100Time(s) a SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO ince U2 eh Pcie SPECTRAL MATTED aur 98 ,Proteinase een CURINS Horizontal 2.5 -SEED -Spectrally Matched -TARGET fk SpectralAcceleration(g)0.5 0.01 0.10 1.00 Period (s) 10.00 *SEED record scaled to the peak ground acceleration prior to spectral matching. SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECTareasee SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Interface M9.2 88th Percentile -Before and After Spectral Matching Clean,rehabte energy fac the neat (02 years CURINS Horizontal Figure 99 100%7 90%+fo80%+fo70%+WAFy60%+a L a t VAGS50%+ .VA7)% + wo 40%T = S 30%+°q f -SEED -Spectrally Matched 20%+fm y ZF0%+tp +' 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Time (s) 1 0.1 + 0.01 + fob]5 S 0.001 +S E2 =0.0001 + &E Pal i ©0.00001 +5 3 ih ie]i -SEED --Spectrally Matched iaU-0.000001 +a c "hh0.000001 +i | 1E-08 A pp pt iy Wats 0.00 0.01 0.10 1.00 10.00 100.00 Frequency (Hz) SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECTSF SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Interface M9.2 88th Percentile -Arias Intensity &Fourier Transform Figure 100 Clean revatle energy fer the nest 100 years CURINS Horizontal -Spectrally Matched -SEED leration(g)Velocity(cm/s)on.faeaaT ae ee ee ee SSSoe ee ee ee SeSYOStt NormalizedDisplacement=<<S|a="a|pe a dk -Z- SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean.refiable energy fot the neat 109 years. Interface M9.2 88th Percentile -SEED &SPECTRALLY MATCHED Acceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time Histories CURIUD Vertical Figure 101 airiin tthe :A AL NUMA UEENN tl iioasis||\i "I Wacoaaa eu!hihi htt |Lt a :Ti -5 ,-t 4 4 [ne sun i |LAN iw rw - - : Ww = .SUSITNA-WATANA HYORO seam onan ree 02 °° -Spectrally Matched 0.1 :il 't IE +|3 il lu if WI vie lh i i |i ily'Maan 1 hla-E -0.1 |Ii '4 ry t 0 10 20 30 40 vi re (s)60 70 80 90 100 .E -Spectrally Matched a ren |}{|i€0 Ea Wy savant A,K Mi \hy k mn LH ||(I |fda aa,fA=Wey (il iN ny i if i)iN y yey Pye Wa8-10 1 ||Cyt y :0 10 20 30 40 Ti+50 (s)60 70 80 90 100 i --Spectrally Matched 6 | 4 1 |\ =2 E i \4 +I ih +-+4SEamPlaitAUTAaA(UPON a hanbapemalAy!Ly W =WA \4 }i aa:a : 0 10 20 30 40 Ti me (s)60 70 80 90 100 susWA SATANA HYEHYDRO Interface M9.2 sam Percentile -SPECTRALLY MATCHED Figure 103 Clean,rebabte energy for th 169 re.Acceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time Histories CURIUD Vertical 1.4 -SEED -Spectrally Matched 1.2 -TARGET 0.8 +\ 0.6 SpectralAcceleration(g)0.4 A 0.2 0.01 0.10 1.00 10.00 Period (s) *SEED record scaled to the peak ground acceleration prior to spectral matching. SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT-z- SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Interface M9.2 88th Percentile -Before and After Spectral Matching Figure 104 Clean,rebadle energy for the eect C9 pears CURI UD Vertical 100%7 90% _80%+ 70%+ 60%+ 50%+ 40%+ 30%+%AriasIntensity20%+VA -SEED -Spectrally Matched 10%o f-_7. 40 60 80 100 120 0.1 + _0.01 + 0.001 + 0.0001 + 0.00001 4 v7FourierAmplitude --SEED --Spectrally Matched 0.000001 + 0.0000001 + 1€-08 SEL0.00 0.01 wwe 1 go tk 1 ae awe!T t t 0.10 1.00 10.00 Frequency (Hz) yw SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,reradle energy forthe neat (00 years Interface M9.2 88th Percentile -Arias Intensity &Fourier Transform CURIUD Vertical Figure 105 --Spectrally Matched -SEED Acceleration(g)===Velocity(cm/s)RnNoo8_ae=--on=--30 + it0)ae a VS GCCYCOWOODUYSO +re rT 1 rn +a ee ee ee ee ee ee ee ee a a ee a a a 2 0 20 40 60 80 _100 120 140 160 180 200Time(s) 15 <4===_-<=]=all<I=x<{-0.5 ¥y1 25 fe pop pp 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Time {s) SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT .2 88th P tile -SE 'SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Interface M9.8 ercen ile 'Ss ED &SPECRALLY MATCHED Figure 106 ;Acceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time HistoriesCleon,nhctle energy for the neat 1G yeurs.AKT0O23 EW Horizontal So8 =| > a a] T a a! iw ud 4 tu uw ir) wo ” nn n 3 | <| = TR at| aS [b> -_- 1 | - aea - + 4 - z = - Ls == - SS -- j---4 St| | 26--SE ae = FE --_ ] = = be Z = eT TCS SS| |St == = -=> - - == --- = = SS J i = i eee ---a- (s/w) Ay0jan (tuo) quawaseydsiq Figure 107 i Time {s) Interface M9.2 88th Percentile -SEED tion,Velocity and Displacement Time Histories AKTO23 EW Horizontal leraAcce -z- SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Crean,retichle energy for next 109 yeors. --Spectrally Matched re:ihNeAgi Pe OT OG HG TN GT SS SN OS TS OS SC SOTt Velocity(cm/s)-<=Ta==SSSS| IbeenNisan Lo]Displacement(cm)-10 Fe Oe nO Sn SSeSSe SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO energy for the next (OG pects SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT Interface M9.2 88th Percentile-SPECRALLY MATCHED Acceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time Histories AKTO23 EW Horizontal Figure 108 --Spectrally Matched 18 -SEED --TARGET ;iTJMW -/Ci 0.4SpectralAcceleration(g)0.2 0.01 0.10 1.00 10.00 Period (s) *SEED record scaled to the peak ground acceleration prior to spectral matching. SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT-w SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Interface M9.2 88th Percentile -Before and After Spectral Matching Figure 109 Clean,rehatle treed foe the neat 10 yeuet AKT023 EW Horizontal 100% 90% 80%+ 70%+ 60%+ 50%+ 40%+ 30%+%AriasIntensity-SEED -Spectrally Matched20%+ 10%J0%r 4.4.rm 4 nm 1 1 rm 4 re A.7 1 4.1 1 rn 1.4 250 0.1 0.01 0.001 0.0001 + 0.00001 0.000001 --FourierAmplitude0.0000001 -SEED -Spectrally Matched 1E-08 -- we ni go _ak 1 nl Parra1E-09 0.00 0.01 0.10 1.00 10.00 Frequency (Hz) 100.00 -a_ SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean tehable energe fer ine nent 130 years SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT Interface M9.2 88th Percentile -Arias Intensity &Fourier Transform AKTO23 EW Horizontal Figure 110 --Spectrally Matched -SEED iduNAcceleration(g)o©Ne>-0.6 + -Spectrally Matched -SEED Lilla AAVelocity(cm/s)oO-20 + 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 2uw©wnNormalizedDisplacementQonnal15 Pee pep 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200Time(s) fi SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Interface M9.2 88th Percentile -SEED &SPECRALLY MATCHED Figure 111 Cicon-reticbte encrgy for the neat 100 pe0rs Acceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time Histories AKT023 NS Horizontal 1 Time {s) rf |eonee --+---" S a 1 Time (s) Figure 112 £ iSGO6OoOncatao2a iS} "or $a=] " Bo2cmNTABDPpoZoeyt9wo£oc2c2=+soO£a(7)La)o<< -E SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO ERAN yyy a |"Har i”TTL ih |Ne ale adicRe0talery Displacement(cm)Oop7ee=;qq||==||.=bo]a,J-=_|ellr fae=-=PaKK=<eeeeeeSeee ee eS Interface M9.2 88th Percentile -SPECRALLY MATCHED Acceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time Histories AKTO23 NS Horizonta 1 SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Figure 113 Cieen.refubls energy for the nest WOO yeurs. -Spectrally Matched -SEED 25 TARGET SpectralAcceleration(g)0.01 0.10 1.00 Period (s) 10.00 *SEED record scaled to the peak ground acceleration prior to spectral matching. SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECTI SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Interface M9.2 88th Percentile -Before and After Spectral Matching Cleun.retutte energy hos the nest 100 years AKTO23 NS Horizontal Figure 114 100%+ 90%+f 80%+ 70%+ 60% 50%+ 40%+ 30%+%AriasIntensity-SEED -Spectrally Matched20%+ 10%+te 200 10 0.1 + 0.01 0.001 0.0001 + 0.00001 +FourierAmplitude0.000001 +--SEED -Spectrally Matched 0.0000001 1E-08 + 1E-09 oy n pr oa ere eae a go 0.00 T t T 0.10 1.00 10.00 Frequency (Hz) -i SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Ciean rehabie ¢nergy for toe next 100 yeare SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT Interface M9.2 88th Percentile -Arias Intensity &Fourier Transform AKT023 NS Horizontal Figure 115 04 > r --Spectrally Matched ----SEED 0.3 + l| Pht aaaNthiirlAcceleration(g)Velocity(cm/s)aeOoOoOoNoO=ewohb1oPe a aS SSS ST PO CS SS OT CT HSa56 NormalizedDisplacement=_z===-LSZai7)=>b>>100 Time {s) zw SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Interface M9.2 88th Percentile -SEED &SPECRALLY MATCHED Figure 116 Acceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time Histories AKTO23 UD VerticalClean.rebcble energy for the neut JO?yeurs 0.06 + [-SEED 0.04 + 0.02 + z 'hilly izeaniA Aiuss isda©g =-0.02 if S <[ -0.04 + -0.06 + 0.08 $4 pp ft 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200Time(s) 8 5 E -SEED 6 + 4+| B 2 L ||Ly 1 L,||il5EmTaaea:ne Ha hy f a A 4 hyraeeadia)ALT[=]'q \ $?t ri Wn Yo E { 6 '. 0 50 100 150 200Time(s) 15 7 '-SEED 10 +iEst s r . =L2of af \fay AM [|fr N\f\pa al)AAgfVwy||\/Yow]V a L aot y W"10 + : 15 fe pp 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200Time(s) y SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Interface M9.2 88th Percentile -SEED Figure 117 icon,reticbie energy fo the nevt 100 yeors.Acceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time Histories AKTO23 UD Vertical Spectrally Matched Hkhonlheii tyel-nen Acceleration(g)ivo |Lo cf ir tL |.po ood i ||A Ang fn -20 +aVelocity(cm/s)oOa=|Displacement(cm)uwOouwIS><IssaLe]r---,SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Interface M9.2 88th Percentile -SPECRALLY MATCHED Figure 118 Cicon.revoble enct Acceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time Histories AKT023 UD Verticalfortheneat}OF yours 1.2 --Spectrally Matched |-SEED 1 |,-TARGET -0.8 \: Ro c 2 oo) o . fnCT)\om 086 Oo rs) <q fn ud (5) D oa”pt 0.2 0 '+ 0.01 0.10 1.00 10.00 Period (s) *SEED record scaled to the peak ground acceleration prior to spectral matching. --SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean rehable energy for the neat 19 yeers Interface M9.2 88th Percentile-Before and After Spectral Matching AKT023 UD Vertical Figure 119 100% 90%+ 80%+ 70%+ 60%+ 50%+ 40%+%AriasIntensity30%+720%+-SEED -Spectrally Matched 10%+L 200 0.1 + 0.01 + 0.001 + 0.0001 0.00001 0.000001 +FourierAmplitude0.0000001 + --SEED -Spectrally Matched 1E-08 + 1E-09 pat ey 0.00 0.01 0.10 1.00 10.00 Frequency (Hz) Zz SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,relable ereszy for toe nent 109 years Interface M9.2 88th Percentile -Arias Intensity &Fourier Transform AKT023 UD Vertical Figure 120 -Spectrally Matched --SEED o1 +Acceleration(g)0 |-aanamaaanenaiih -0.1 malPoa inilT 00 Time (s)200 60 7 --Spectrally Matched ---SEED Nao[=]Velocity(cm/s)-4o + 15 -Spectrally Matched -SEED JinSo|\RAdah.A9wyyy YE NormalizedDisplacementyor y 15 4 n }po 100 120 Time (s)200 ta SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean.reficble energy for the neat 10 yeurs Interface M9.2 88th Percentile -SEED &SPECRALLY MATCHED Acceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time Histories CHBO12 EW Horizontal Figure 121 -SEED --a-0.05 1 Acceleration(g)o100 Time (s) -SEED Velocity(cm/s))50 _100 150 200Time(s) -SEED Displacement(cm)fon)>a[-™ |__4[2|_--4100 Time (s) r SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Interface M9.2 88th Percentile -SEED Figure 122Acceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time Histories CHB012 EW HorizontalCisas.reheble energy tor tae nent 109 yeues. 0.5 :--Spectrally Matched Acceleration(g)Ae TH ae Velocity(cm/s)Displacement(cm))SDSR_-E>=|SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Interface M9.2 88th Percentile -SPECRALLY MATCHED Figure 123 Cleon,reliable energy for the next 100 yeors Acceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time Histories CHB012 EW Horizontal 3 ---Spectrally Matched -SEED -TARGET 2s | "ag 2 - c 2 par) [1]See a co) v 15 Oo < e ho par} (3) Ya.1 fy n 0.5 A 0 4 + . 0.01 0.10 1.00 10.00 Period (s) *SEED record scaled to the peak ground acceleration prior to spectra!matching. SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Interface M9.2 88th Percentile -Before and After Spectral Matching Ciews redante erergy for the nest 100 yeurs CHBO12 EW Horizontal Figure 124 100% amb Va :|Uf cont if |f50%+ 40%+ 30%+ff -SEED -- Spectrally Matched 20%+VWmy40%'3 Soa oe |rt +a JL +4 1 1 +1 rn 4 ra Gow lone cae re nm 4.4 1 1 n nm 4.rt 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200%AriasIntensity0.1 + 0.01 + 0.001 0.0001 + 0.00001 = F ee r --SEED --Spectrally Matched 0.000001 -¢FourierAmplitude0.0000001 + 1£-08 La eRe0.00 0.01 0.10 1.00 10.00 100.00 Frequency (Hz) SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT-z_ SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Interface M9.2 88th Percentile -Arias Intensity &Fourier Transform Figure 125 Clean rehable energy for toe neet 109 years CHBO12 EW Horizontal -Spectrally Matched -SEED 0.4 0.2 toWikaemente Acceleration(g)Oral Pa eB ae CT CT ONS OS CO ST SS OY SO PO VOR SUE EO ST CSSO 100 Time (s) -Spectrally Matched --SEED Velocity(cm/s)oO|ieee=a a a SO OO SS TS SO --Spectrally Matched -SEED 9in©inNormalizedDisplacementOo'reyASwPe se OS ST GO OP SS OS CO SO OO Oe OR RE ON SS 40 60 80 _100 120 140 160 180 Time (s) we SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Cigar.rebette energy for ine neur 100 yeurs. SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT Interface M9.2 88th Percentile -SEED &SPECRALLY MATCHED Acceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time Histories CHBO12 NS Horizontal Figure 126 -SEED ;ddd .snp!ulateUi a|eae eg bas Acceleration(g)fo)ia ee ee ee ee ee or i ne Se ee ST eT SS SO VT ST -Velocity(cm/s)uwa=Af.HW 50 150 eee Displacement(cm)fo]100 Time (s) SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROrortheneat109pears. SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT Interface M9.2 88th Percentile -SEED Acceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time Histories CHB012 NS Horizontal Figure 127 --Spectrally Matched :i ae)i iiNytHiNap Acceleration(g)Velocity(cm/s)o&=a=-=a=-30 -40 WSO foe FR Sn OO 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200Time(s) 40 -Spectrally Matched 30 \:h |\10 '\a Appt i AGM Displacement(cm)oq=<]Fi-<cal== =ié)20 40 60 80 _100 120 140 160 180 200 Time (s) me SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT Interface M9.2 88th Percentile -SPECRALLY MATCHED iATANAHYDROFigure 128SUSITNA-W.gr for ine nett 10090003 Acceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time Histories CHB012 NS Horizontal -Spectrally Matched -SEED -TARGET 7 4__Ni |1 ic)2 we c 2 - rc} Same s ;fbs}15 t Ls) < we i [S)3., ”y A 0 +4 0.01 0.10 1.00 Period (s) 10.00 *SEED record scaled to the peak ground acceleration prior to spectral matching. -z- SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,rehable energy fur the nent 100 years SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT Interface M9.2 88th Percentile -Before and After Spectral Matching CHB012 NS Horizontal Figure 129 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30%%AriasIntensity20%+jj -see -Spectrally Matched 10%+ 0%+ 50 100 150 200 250 0.01 0.001 + 0.0001 uu 0.00001 0.000001 FourierAmplitude-SEED -Spectrally Matched 0.0000001 16-08 + ait 1 oo aaee 1 Dent dette 1 For on ae ere ae |1£-09 0.01 0.10 1.00 10.00 Frequency (Hz) ae SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean rebable erergy for ine next 100 years SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT Interface M9.2 88th Percentile -Arias Intensity &Fourier Transform CHBO12 NS Horizontal Figure 130 0.2 + --Spectrally Matched -SEED o1 +Lit '0 [sentHoan Acceleration(g)Tarrenregiy vente Fe a ee See OD SO SO Oe SO SS ST SO ST ST SO ST SS --Spectrally Matched --SEED Velocity(cm/s)YBNow3b(=)-50 Pe --Spectrally Matched -SEED 2°wu'2wnNormalizedDisplacementQo'ryautPe a SG SS DS eS OT TS NT GY TT OU 100 Time (s) jw SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Interface M9.2 88th Percentile -SEED &SPECRALLY MATCHED Figure 131 Cicon,rebodle energy for the nest 109 years SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT Acceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time Histories CHBO012 UD Vertical --SEED bedash-ny wit-0.1 H 20.15 [ep 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200Time(s) 15 -SEED 10 Velocity(cm/s)i.=5 }|q -10 -15 ++* ' ; 50 100 150 200Time(s) i5 -SEED 10 I Displacement(cm)°-10 15 4.4.rn 1 +£1 1 1 +r A.4 4.+re rm 4.nm 4 A.7 A hn +1 2 1 i.4 oe a a a es a ee cee ee Oe as as cs ce Gen mae Geek meee 2 ie)20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Time (s) SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT-e- Interface M9.2 88th Percentile -SEED Figure 132SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,recite en (fe energy for tne nent Id years Acceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time Histories CHBO12 UD Vertical -Spectrally Matched o1 +LtUa 0.1.|raithAelyst f ay uy |iARGHialbigtte.it alia :Mi mnNo Acceleration(g)-0.2 10 + -10 + -20 +Velocity(cm/s)=====80 00 120 140 160 180 200 -Spectrally Matched 10 +{adh fe evictions!Displacement(cm)eeeee RIL | 100 Time {s) Pe SUSITNA-WATANA HYDROCicer,feble energyfortheneat 100ye SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT Interface M9.2 88th Percentile -SPECRALLY MATCHED Acceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time Histories CHBO12 UD Vertical Figure 133 1.4 -Spectrally Matched -SEED -TARGET 1.2 ,f\ -1 |oa c 2 *0.8 Sa G aY O Oo <f -0.6 © t= 3) wu 2.Ww)L 0.2 wal 0 4 4 0.01 0.10 1.00 Period (s) 10.00 *SEED record scaled to the peak ground acceleration prior to spectral matching. SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECTee SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO interface M9.2 88th Percentile -Before and After Spectral Matching Ctean.rehuble eceegy for the nest 100 years CHBO12 UD Vertical Figure 134 100% nox | >an so |: |Va 70%if 60%-- |l 50%+i”___| :[30%+%AriasIntensity'f/-SEED -Spectrally Matched20%10%+SS/0%r 4 4.in nm 1.1 1 rn 4 1 rm 4 0 50 100 150 200 250 0.1 0.01 + 0.001 + 0.0001 + 0.00001 + 0.000001 --FourierAmplitude-SEED --Spectrally Matched 0.0000001 1£-08 + 1E-09 py py 0.00 0.01 0.10 1.00 10.00 100.00 Frequency (Hz) SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT-zT SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Interface M9.2 88th Percentile -Arias Intensity &Fourier Transform Figure 135 Cleon rebable energy for Ibe nett 109 years CHBO12 U D Vertical . -Spectrally Matched --SEED 299090FSae©ee-eeaTerretryreroi6incrrter----_-prei a Acceleration(g)0.2 +rH °ww-0.4 0.5 epee-0.6 oot owi20 25 30 35Time(s) - Spectrally Matched -SEED Velocity(cm/s)oS&Sraot1.|LS TI-Spectrally Matched -SEED >_y©inNormalizedDisplacementMON 'ry40 SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,revgble energy for the nest 102 years. SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT Crustal 84th Percentile -SEED &SPECTRALLY MATCHED Acceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time Histories GIL 067 Horizontal Figure 136 0.4 0.3 --SEED Acceleration(g)iS)»o+-aeT -SEED 20+of {Lh\the thn olNaaA pals,JSzVelocity(cm/s)oOgagei reapersa--SEED NF Displacement(cm)OoNaanes20 Time (s)40 SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,rebaote energy for the neat 109 years. SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT Crustal 84th Percentile -SEED Acceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time Histories GIL 067 Horizontal Figure 137 -Spectrally Matched =-0.1 0.1 +seu Acceleration(g)--Spectrally Matched epOoA,napllililnaod Velocity(cm/s)-20 aePr er cae ey Sa Se Be Fe a a a a ¢'wiOo10 15 20 25 30 35 Time (s) 15 -Spectrally Matched .=]uwoDisplacement(cm)}wi30 35 40 SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Cheon.retighle energy foe the nent WD yeurs SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT Crustal 84th Percentile -SPECTRALLY MATCHED Acceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time Histories GIL 067 Horizontal Figure 138 18 0.4 -SEED 1.6 Speett ally Matehed -TARGET 1.4 ft on °U - c 2 =|©1 2 oO 1S) 1S)<x 0.8 s - Soon _ [S) [<0] 2. " 0.2 0.01 Period (s) 10.00 *SEED record scaled to the peak ground acceleration prior to spectral matching. fe SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,relradle energy for fhe weal 109 pears SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT Crustal 84th Percentile -Before and After Spectral Matching GIL 067 Horizontal Figure 139 30%%AriasIntensity100%+ 90%+ 80%+f 70%+ 60%+ 50%+ 40%+4-SEED -Spectrally Matched20%+ 10%+ 0%+ 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 °8FourierAmplitude0.000001 0.0000001 0.1 = 0.01 + 0.0001 + 0.00001 + 0.01 rat nm $a at 2 ey vane Se ee 0.10 1.00 10.00 Frequency (Hz) --- SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clega eehabte energy fer the meet 169 pears SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT Crustal 84th Percentile -Arias Intensity &Fourier Transform GIL 067 Horizontal Figure 140 29290NWff»Ww9°oOoFfAcceleration(g)o5Nob-Spectrally Matched -SEED THTTPTWAany PF TTTpeeroVelocity(cm/s)fon]--Spectrally Matched -SEED TITTTTTtttrie nA_oh,arfYayONOW V TOT15 0.5 --Spectrally Matched -SEED 4NY SeA NormalizedDisplacemento10 20 Time (s)40 SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,rebable energy for the nest 100 years. SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT Crustal 84th Percentile -SEED &SPECTRALLY MATCHED Acceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time Histories GIL 337 Horizontal Figure 141 0.4 --SEED 0.3 9aaTohs ia lh a Acceleration(g)'°oa|ear ee a SCSTTSrtTTT 20 Time (s) -SEED Velocity(cm/s)Fe ae ee eS DS Pa SR SGT GN SS SO IS PO SUN SOttt 20 Time (s) -SEED \_ \fDisplacement(cm)Bowne&ORNWwWBY\I ,wPe ee ee a'a10 15 _20 25 30 35Time(s)40 -_T SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,retiaole energy for the nest 109 years. SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT Crustal 84th Percentile -SEED Acceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time Histories GIL 337 Horizontal Figure 142 04 --Spectrally Matched Siwtoto°ohbON--|EyNi Linedeoaiaen Acceleration(g)-Spectrally Matched PN an on Pek OOF A.Vs ON Fae lame_\ on,otapiewv Vny°aed-4|tameVelocity(cm/s)25 30 35 40 15 [ .-Spectrally Matched 10 +i wmee|Displacement(cm)oO5 :y -10 + 15 4 LD py tpt ts a 1 0 5 10 i5 20 25 30 35 40Time(s) SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT-Z- SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO ; Crustal 84th Percentile -SPECTRALLY MATCHED Figure 143 clean tele energy for the nent 109 yeas Acceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time Histories GIL 337 Horizontal -SEED 1.8 -Spectrally Matched -TARGET 1.6 1.4 .Jt Mo |'\ V 0.8 SpectralAcceleration(g)08 |4 0.4 0.2 Period (s) 10.00 *SEED record scaled to the peak ground acceleration prior to spectral matching. SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT-T- SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Crustal 84th Percentile -Before and After Spectral Matching Clean,renable energy for the meat 160 pears GIL 337 Horizontal Figure 144 100%+ 90%+iv80%+|70%+|F 60% = i $s L 2 50%+ £t n 40%+<=[ <x.20%+x [-SEED -Spectrally Matched20%+ 10%+ 0%fet 4 +++++; 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Time (s) 1 0.1 + 0.01 + eb)5 mo]0.001S = =0.0001 + <E Pal i ©0.00001 +-_E 3[s)--SEED ---Spectrally Matchedue0.000001 + 0.0000001 1£-08 .1+}betty ou 0.01 0.10 1.00 10.00 100.00 Frequency (Hz)- SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT-e- SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Crustal 84th Percentile -Arias Intensity &Fourier Transform Clean,rehadle ene-gy for the nest 100 years GIL 337 Horizontal Figure 145 - Spectrally Matched -SEED Acceleration(g)Oo°ow-°bhoTITrayoTORIiVelocity(cm/s)o-10 +A ¥ -20 + -30 E t -40 + 50 Pp pp 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40Time(s) 1.5 --Spectrally Matched -SEED tte »|/\c et fAEos 3 1 8 ot L \Ox™a Lm z L \/NGS fos2 ye2L -1 i 15 4 Wp pop ftp pote 0 5 10 15 ,20 25 30 35 40Time(s) -SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Crustal 84th Percentile -SEED &SPECTRALLY MATCHED Figure 146 Clean.reiutle energy for the neat 109 years.Acceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time Histories GIL UP Vertical |-SEED ipl eeeAcceleration(g)oOfoo)oOwn7==i AAP per iatreern|TIT20 Time (s) --SEED Velocity(cm/s)=|Le se ee a Pe ON NOS a NS SN TGS SOS CCTTtTTt+ 20 Time (s) 10 -SEED 5 Displacement(cm)10 15 _20 25 30 35 Time (s) 40 eo SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,revabie energy tor the neat 109 years. Crustal 84th Percentile -SEED Acceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time Histories GIL UP Vertical Figure 147 0.4 -Spectrally Matched 0.3 yy thyQora IN igi et Acceleration(g)of=a TOTTI-Spectrally Matched Velocity(cm/s)aendoa-=a|-ind10 -Spectrally Matched Displacement(cm)va)3<J10 15 _ 20 Time (s) 40 2 SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,reliable energy for tne neat 169 years. SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT Crustal 84th Percentile -SPECTRALLY MATCHED Acceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time Histories GIL UP Vertical Figure 148 1.2 -SEED --Spectrally Matched 0.8 -TARGET 0.6 SpectralAcceleration(g)os is 0.2 0.01 0.10 1.00 Period (s) 10.00 *SEED record scaled to the peak ground acceleration prior to spectral matching. -Z SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean.rebadle energy for (he neat 109 pears SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT Crustal 84th Percentile -Before and After Spectral Matching GIL UP Vertical Figure 149 100%+ 90%+780%m|-f_f60%+ 50%+ 40%+%AriasIntensity-SEED -Spectrally Matched30%+i20%+/10%+J0%+L 10 45 0.1 + 0.01 +°80.0001 +/ 0.00001 +FourierAmplitude--SEED --Spectrally Matched 0.000001 + 0.0000001 + 1E£-08 0.01 1.00 10.00 Frequency (Hz) -E- SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean renabdte entrgy for the near 100 years SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT Crustal 84th Percentile -Arias Intensity &Fourier Transform GIL UP Vertical Figure 150 -Spectrally Matched --SEED =aeESE=eSEeAcceleration(g)10 "25 30Time(s) --Spectrally Matched --SEED Age get Velocity(cm/s)oOoYl 810 Time (s) 15 7 '--Spectrally Matched -SEED uN or Ppa p\Awal NormalizedDisplacementSS ava" 10 ae | t .25 30Time(s)35 SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Chea,retarhle energy tor the next toe years Crustal 84th Percentile -SEED &SPECTRALLY MATCHED Acceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time Histories AUL 000 Horizontal Figure 151 -SEED 0.04 +Acceleration(g)S===--ES=====|_|I======x|Velocity(cm/s)>feaIi---|=--T<I-<-Z=xjLamPeas<AIL an WIAA ae S 20 Time (s)Displacement(cm)_aq<q_-P- ]4 a i”ra po 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Time (s) SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT---_ SUSITNA-\WATANA HYDRO Crustal 84th Percentile -SEED Figure 152 .Acceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time HistoriesClear.relrde energy for the next 1Gyears .AUL 000 Horizontal o4 =-Spectrally Matched Ooopa=|=--i-Paaraa__=aevAcceleration(g)QoQ»Lek==-=pnt=-_=Velocity(cm/s)oOaia|-&-cag-_ys<papsLEy]i.is.Time (s) rE \-Spectrally Matched 10 + [\ APesa>PNIsann°Displacement(cm)uw|thi|Nts)a er ee a a Sr eer eee Yt 35Time(s) . : SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECTee SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Crustal 84th Percentile SPECTRALLY MATCHED Figure 153clean,tehabie energy feu the next 10 yeors Acceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time Histories 'AUL 000 Horizontal 16 14 -SEED -Spectrally Matched 1.2 --TARGET 0.8 SpectralAcceleration(g).mez 0.4 0.2 0.01 1.00 10.00 Period (s) *SEED record scaled to the peak ground acceleration prior to spectral matching. -e SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Cheon reinole energy for the nect 100 years. Crustal 84th Percentile -Before and After Spectral Matching AUL 000 Horizontal Figure 154 100%+en90%+Ta80%+Pp70%+jfFy60%+wn i [i250%+ E {3 40%+ <c [ <=30x +x E -SEED - Spectrally Matched 20%+Wr-3 a0%+tpt ttt +pp 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Time (s) 1 l Anh Ah hn,nh0.1 "yer Y oor JNO![AnalE,VoVy Novy ye a 5 S 0.001 +42ro¥L £0.0001 +Be;; .L &0.00001 +_E 3[e)-SEED --Spectrally MatchedU-0.000001 + 0.0000001 + 1E-08 4 a:at +4 0.01 0.0 1.00 10.00 Frequency (Hz) SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT-T- SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean.reliable energy far the next 100 years Crustal 84th Percentile -Arias Intensity &Fourier Transform AUL 000 Horizontal Figure 155 29wma-Spectrally Matched -SEED 2>22°09PrPNwHh ge Acceleration(g}oO|Fare-s==sini|aaSee= it Ath bal wth okfrdi(i Las o29wNntelTUTTITTYTITTYrrraf=)ay9wnT10 20 25 30 Time (s} -Spectrally Matched --SEED Velocity(cm/s)o25 30 Time (s) 15 --Spectrally Matched --SEED 9in-)wNormalizedDisplacementOoeT 'ryas ¢ 10 25 30Time(s) 35 ze SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Cleat reinatle energy for the nest 108 years SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT Crustal 84th Percentile -SEED &SPECTRALLY MATCHED Acceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time Histories AUL 270 Horizontal Figure 156 .”:|||lL,|7AaRA"[!aa yr Velocity(cm/s)abN°N>a====---_|ai--[el==|T T T T 1 + 1 + 2 1 1 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Displacement(cm)&oo¢''wnNLal°rpNaWwWPSwi|ae0 Ss 10 5 25 30 35Time{s) SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT--- SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Crustal B4th Percentile -SEED Figure 157Acceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time HistoriesClean.relsab'e energy for the next 160 years..AUL 270 Horizontal e29988FPNWwWf+WTDAAcceleration(g)fo}oe66wino6aoS-Spectrally Matched it ial tigMh[¥rheaAy Pe eS nS Ce OY SS ET RT YON SS SS SS SS US YT OTtT 307 Velocity(cm/s)."oO5 20 Time (s)Displacement(cm)--Spectrally Matched J [|ae[\f_\|\ w\pS NP NANenee\A | AY S 20 Time (s) 35 Clea tei fable ene: r.SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO roy for ihe nest Crustal 84th Percentile -SPECTRALLY MATCHED Acceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time Histories AUL 270 Horizontal10years Figure 158 1.6 14 -SEED -Spectrally Matched -TARGET 1.2 0.8 SpectralAcceleration(g)0.4 06 A Va 0.2 0.01 }Period (s) 10.00 *SEED record scaled to the peak ground acceleration prior to spectral matching. Te SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Ctean.retubdte energy for ine next 190 yours SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT Crustal 84th Percentile -Before and After Spectral Matching AUL 270 Horizontal Figure 159 100%7 -90%+ [fh.80%L WA70%+f |/&60%+ "fcS[[2 50%+ ='fa4 40%'<c E S 30%+: ° [fo -SEED -Spectrally Matched 20%+ 10%+ 0%+ 0 1 0.1 + 0.01 + fol]L mo 0.001 +=>E x =0.0001 + <x _L 2 0.00001 + =E 5i?)i --SEED -Spectrally Matchedbe0.000001 + 0.0000001 + 1-08 Ht 4 :Hy 0.01 0.10 1.00 10.00 100.00 Frequency (Hz) SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECTee SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean.rehable energy for the next 100 ycaes Crustal 84th Percentile -Arias Intensity &Fourier Transform AUL 270 Horizontal Figure 160 --Spectrally Matched -SEED eB E c E S E 2 ot |WN ah o C9g"yuu<i" 0.3 £ 0.4 r 1 4.4 4.1 +Soe ee a a |4 + 0 5 10 25 30 35Time(s) 30 -Spectrally Matched -SEED 20 10 +Velocity(cm/s)OorySo-20 -30 4 t t t 0 5 10 Time (s)25 30 35 15 -Spectrally Matched --SEED |f\= C7) §05 A Pohaaa a iM EVIL AAARioveWyly£05 y yw"1 15 $++11 +#--} a 0 S 10 25 30 35Time(s) a --rer-_HYDRO PROJECT SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Crustal 84th Percentile -SEED &SPECTRALLY MATCHED Figure 161 Chean,rebabte energy tor the newt 100 years Acceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time Histories AUL UP Vertical n(g)eli-a{_-SESE_-----=-=-'4 1 1 n oe.ni 1 n 'rn yo n A 1 1 1 4 4 4 rn 4 4 fat nl rn 1 2 2 '1 t t Al,mipAALAly atoeSe.iz PON ap Velocity(cm/s)Ay a eae auf a owe VVa g <5 rnat_rl'\HATE ANA ApOONTalVVEI :}||W 15 Time (s) :A-WAT-Z SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Crustal 84th Percentile -SEED Figure 162 hese for tne nett 109 year Acceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time HistoriesCleaaselnsGlecnergsfurinene!yeors.AUL UP Vertical 0.4 , -Spectrally Matched 0.3 s He ih |int:Hh |)||i a wh lie M2tHTey os a -"S -10 -15 "hme >2 -30 -35 30 -Spectrally Matched 20 =tot i Ma 1 .£0 fh \he '\I I A I |if li m \lt rly .One Wi eye>=-10 L 1"|||¥v = ”ie)-_;-10 ,15 "Tmet)20 a 35 -0 i 35 °'(\--Spectrally Matched e+, at A \(\ Bot Mh [\pn aA anPinaMifpSf|PhCEWALPDeaVi a3 VA OWYe °0 a :10 i "hme 20 25 -30 -35 .SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO ,acceleration,Velocty and Dsplecerent Tina itor Figure 163 Cian cena energy ore nee anes "|AULUP Vertical -SEED 0.9 -Spectrally Matched [pry,-TARGET 0.8 TNrinAWN oad JIN SpectralAcceleration(g)0.3 0.2 0.1 0 .ay +---+#SL 1 0.01 0.10 1.00 10.00 Period (s) *SEED record scaled to the peak ground acceleration prior to spectral matching. SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT-E- SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Crustal 84th Percentile -Before and After Spectral Matching Chea.rehable energy for the neut 100 yours .AUL UP Vertical Figure 164 100%+ 90%+ 80%+ 70%+ 60%+ 50%+ 40%+ 30%+%AriasIntensity20%+-SEED --Spectrally Matched 10%+bee 40 A rw 0.01 + wersah ||0.001 +SI VV WwW J0.0001 -se0.00001 + 0.000001 +FourierAmplitude0.0000001 +-SEED --Spectrally Matched 16-08 + 1€-09 1£-10 0.01 0.10 Pore = T 1.00 10,00 Frequency (Hz) 100.00 -w SUSITNA-WATANA HYBRO Cfean,retistie eneigy for the next 108 years SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT Crustal 84th Percentile -Arias Intensity &Fourier Transform AUL UP Vertical Figure 165 --Spectrally Matched ©-SEED oi=TAR At-Acceleration(g)|<acagre-metSSSoe566wooNoPo6ob19a10 15 20 Time (s) -Spectrally Matched -SEED bE|Velocity(cm/s)10 is 20 Time {s) 15 --Spectrally Matched -SEED °in/\(_\LX f=)inNormalizedDisplacementOoVfWa 'reyas 10 15 Time (s) 20 25 Zz SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Cleas.reiable energy for ine nent 100 years. SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT Crustal 84th Percentile -SEED &SPECTRALLY MATCHED Acceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time Histories DAY LN Horizontal Figure 166 --SEED Acceleration(g)Oo=====>-----------=S-!==.10+y=|_|Velocity(cm/s)anlo)qPee|'pwi'NSoNN)a[Time (s) {\ aczVaAAWee is)5 10 a5 20 25Time(s)ry[=]uwoODisplacement(cm)'wi8}we SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO ]Crustal 84th Percentile -SEED Figure 167Acceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time Histories DAY LN Horizontal!Cteas.tehable energy for the neat 100 years --Spectrally Matched 9AeZAcceleration(g)oeboOSS=|=i -Spectrally Matched 10 isEVelocity(cm/s)is)<]-t t $ 10 15 20 -Spectrally Matched wu6|am.wDisplacement(cm)°q|4[>---|'ry°aw10 15 20 Time (s) 25 -e- SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Ktead reinible energy for the next Ida years SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT Crustal 84th Percentile -SPECTRALLY MATCHED Acceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time Histories DAY LN Horizontal Figure 168 2.5 --SEED -Spectrally Matched 15 (i --TARGET y SpectralAcceleration(g)0.01 Period (s) 10.00 *SEED record scaled to the peak ground acceleration prior to spectral matching. i SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,refadte enceay for the next 108 years SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT Crustal 84th Percentile -Before and After Spectral Matching DAY LN Horizontal Figure 169 100% 90%+f80%+al70%+fp=60%+ =L 5 sox |f50%+ E fa' wi 40%+ <<f <=a0%f 4 [ E -SEED -Spectrally Matched 20%+f10%+7o%+co an t + 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Time (s) 1 3 E , 0.1 + ro)0.01 +so E =] 2 'a €0.001 + << td a 5 0.0001 + 2 E -SEED -Spectrally Matched 0.00001 +| 0.000001 4 ttre ps ay a 0.01 0.10 1.00 10.00 100.00 Frequency (Hz) SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT- SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,rehable energy for ine neat 100 years Crustal 84th Percentile -Arias Intensity &Fourier Transform DAY LN Horizontal Figure 170 -Spectrally Matched Acceleration(g)||Aun ody -- 10 is .20 Time {s) -Spectrally Matched Velocity(cm/s)38eel|','a fy 10 .15 20 Time (s) 1.5 --Spectrally Matched 0.5 +we LP hee \n Lo NormalizedDisplacementOoVIN 10 45 20 Time (s) "25 -- SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Cheaa,sefatle eneegy for the next be years SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT Crustal 84th Percentile -SEED &SPECTRALLY MATCHED Acceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time Histories DAY TR Horizontal Figure 171 -SEED Acceleration(g)oQoOoalNi2==AoooeS----=eeSEES-----a---aa===leeeasll--aeeeSS==-====i=<<a<i==o=omEsTime (s)rayIN)OooO-=HW abs hen tercthon,(RAR ie 7 0 5 10 15 20 25 Time (s)raryo_-|-.-aVelocity(cm/s)OoPS--nwoO-Z'wSoreyoTDisplacement(cm)o&F&NeONBMBwbhane|__-+b-]|_-4mow4is)ortois)5 1 15 20 25 Time (s) S..SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT , SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Crustal 84th Percentile -SEED Figure 172Acceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time HistoriesChea,rehadle energy for the nent We years DAY TR Horizontal -Spectrally Matched Acceleration(g)-ee|--a,==keEtill al ;;PA a erp -Li 5 10 15 20 Time (s) -Spectrally Matched |RPOofScan WT ely eof m 1 aS.Velocity(cm/s)=oOie wehyyO" -30 t t t t 5 10 1s 20 Time (s)rayOo--Spectrally Matched wipt fo]J Displacement(cm)+uwnf a LP?_L\'ryo"Vn U 5 10 15 20 Time (s)25 I SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Crustal 84th Percentile -SPECTRALLY MATCHED Clean,rebatte nergy for he ner:TOE yours Acceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time Histories DAY TR Horizontal Figure 173 1.6 1.4 -SEED --Spectrally Matched -TARGET SpectralAcceleration(g)0.2 0.01 0.10 Period (s) 10.00 *SEED record scaled to the peak ground acceleration prior to spectral matching. SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECTaE SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Cleat reteaale energy for the nee?108 yours Crustal 84th Percentile -Before and After Spectral Matching DAY TR Horizontal Figure 174 100%----90%+_80%+a70%+cA=60%+ 5 ' 5 cot £2 so%+ ='V4a' wo 40%Tf =' S 30%+°E |-SEED -Spectrally Matched 20%[--]10%+WA0%+-:+4 +t 0 5 10.15 20 25 30 Time (s) 1 O41 + wv =) 5 0.01 +fad E x3 € < oD 0.001 + cc c 3 2 --SEED -Spectrally Matched 0.0001 F qT 0.00001 4 a Ha - 0.01 0.10 1.00 40.00 100.00 Frequency (Hz) SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT-_-_- SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,rehabte energy forthe next 100 years Crustal 84th Percentile -Arias Intensity &Fourier Transform DAY TR Horizontal Figure 175 -Spectrally Matched -SEED Acceleration(g)-0.4 ++J}n n 0 5 10 15 20 25Time(s) 50 40 --Spectrally Matched -SEED 30 Velocity(cm/s)OQ10 15 20 Time (s). 15 --Spectrally Matched -SEED yaN Ja idinLIT ©in[NpP\pea.ASVa/NormalizedDisplacementoOew YYia 10 .15 20 Time (s) 25 *SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,retarbie energy for me next 102 years Crustal 84th Percentile -SEED &SPECTRALLY MATCHED Acceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time Histories DAY UP Vertical Figure 176 --SEED Rei eg a t t "]\and AN IL nih area las<Q 5 z VeeeaieutyeSosii|"ry 10 ¥* -15 re 1 L i +Fe ee ee ee i ee ee ne a nn ee Sa f Time (s) 6 -SEED rN.ra |A f asPim: 3 Wo M NE \n /a2 \iV V 4 6 Pa Time {s) wz A-WAT. . Crustal 84th Percentile -SEED .Fi 177SUSITNA-WATANA HYD RO Acceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time Histories 'gure ean.renee encrar',DAY UP Vertical -Spectrally Matched Acceleration(g)Ooini M |||T |{hyiyei -oNv-0.3 + 0.4 9 tt tt + i?)5 10 15 20 25Time(s) --Spectrally Matched RpOoSSpt-a--Velocity(cm/s)wiQuta|so+a|raySo-=a-Syaa<<=-<jyt=):Time (s)ray°o-Spectrally Matched Displacement(cm)odh&BYONMFDOw4etlPN]7|La \[W V/ at J -10 +4 f 0 5 1 5 20 25 Time (s) -z%SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT ry SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Crustal 84th Percentile -SPECTRALLY.MATCHED Figure 178 Clean,tetubie energy for tne next 100 years Acceleration,Velocity and Displacement Time Histories :DAY UP Vertical 1.4 --SEED -Spectrally Matched 1.2 ni -TARGET 1 |! tied bete) - S . =og jiioe] fan aad beP] oO < -06 \\ ba]in 3) fed] a ”n 0.2 0.01 0.10 Period (s) 10.00 *SEED record scaled to the peak ground acceleration prior to spectral matching. Ee SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECT SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean.refuble energy for the net L0G yours Crustal 84th Percentile -Before and After Spectral Matching DAY UP Vertical Figure 179 100%+ 90%+ wn |fe rox |E- 60% 50%a 40%fa 30%f [f -SEED -Spectrally Matched20%+Z10%'4 . 0%+11+tan EELS%AriasIntensityTime (s) 1 o1 + oY rTC 5 0.01 + 2 ; a E < _oO 0.001 E<E=>bFs}L uw L 0.0001 +/L 0.00001 py ta ty :mu 0.01 0.10 1.00 10.00 100.00 Frequency (Hz) SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO PROJECTre SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Crustal 84th Percentile -Arias Intensity &Fourier Transform Figure 180 Clean,remabie energy for the next 100 years.DAY UP Vertical aan ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA11-022SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO WORK IN PROGRESS Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. Appendix B7 Finite Element Analysis Susitna-Watana Hydroelectric Project Alaska Energy Authority FERC Project No.14241 July 2014 Zz SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.07/24/1 4 Seismic Analysis of a Section of Watana Dam 1.Introduction This document reports the findings of the effect of using LS-DYNA to analyze a simple 2D model of the proposed cross section of the Watana Dam and to demonstrate that inclusion of a massed foundation and representation of the reservoir as a compressible material has a beneficial result on stresses (compared to the massless analysis).The analysis included simulations of the dam-foundation-reservoir response to the GIL earthquake record and the results are presented herein. A cross-section of the tallest monolith of the dam has been modelled along with a section of the reservoir and foundation.Two simulations have been are performed,the first used the Ansys-Mechanical software while LS-DYNA was used for the second simulation. The Ansys-Mechanical model had massless foundation and hydrodynamic effects were included using the Westergaard approach.Additionally the Ansys-Mechanical solver uses implicit method of time integration through the seismic event. LS-DYNA uses an explicit method of time integration for time history analysis.The model analyzed also had massed foundation and the reservoir was represented as a compressible fluid.As a result,non- reflecting boundaries were assigned to the cut edges of the foundation and reservoir.The seismic excitations were implemented as tractions at the bottom edge of the foundation and were subsequently scaled to produce the correct outcrop accelerations. Table 1 presents a comparison of the different concepts used in the two simulations. Table 1 -Comparison of the Concepts in the Two Solutions :P .soe Non-Foundation |Hydrostatic |Hydrodynamic Seismic :Software Solver Concept Pressure Concept Excitation reflecting,Boundaries Ansys-.Direct Westergaard Velocity N/A Mechanical Implicit Massless Pressure Mass _Reservoir Compressible Traction FoundationLS-DYNA Explicit Massed Self-Weight Reservoir and Reservoir The results of these simulations are contained in this report and clearly demonstrate that the stresses and sliding displacements reduce substantially when massed foundation and compressible reservoir concepts are implemented in simulations. [2 ALASKA Prepared by MWH(MEK ENERGY AUTHORITY Page 2 of 27 ---wZ- SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.07/24/1 4 2.Geometry and FEA Mesh The geometry and mesh used in the simulations are presented in Figure 1 and Figure 2.The models were similar for both explicit and implicit simulations. For the implicit (Ansys-Mechanical)simulation,the reservoir was replaced with an equivalent hydrostatic pressure and Westergaard masses on the dam's upstream face.The density of foundation was reduced to a small fraction in order to model according to massless concept. Geometry |a 6/6/2014 11:58 AM |[[]Dam [_]Massed Foundation 45' [_]Reservoir / .----';.8 4 \RSs}\ 571.5' ° oOalt .3 -4700'- Figure 1 -Geometry and materials in explicit simulation.There is no reservoir body and the foundation is massless in implicit simulation [EALASKAENERGYAUTHORITY Page 3 of 27 Zz SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO 07/24/14Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. LS-DYNA user Input'tines 25 anonFFigure 2 -FEA Mesh in explicit simulation.Reservoir mesh is removed in implicit simulation 3.Material Properties 3.1.Dam Concrete Table 2 summarizes the material properties used for dam concrete in the simulations. Table 2 --Dam Concrete Material Properties Mass Deformation Poisson's Density Modulus Ratio Pp E V(pcf)(psi). 150 4E+06 0.25 3.2.Foundation Rock The foundation material properties used in the simulations are shown in Table 3. Table 3 -Foundation Rock Material Properties Mass Deformation Poisson's Density Modulus Ratio Pp E V(pcf)(psi) 170 3.5E+06 0.25 3.3.Reservoir Water The reservoir water properties used in the explicit model simulation is stated in Table 4.Bulk modulus was included using an equation of state.These properties only applied to the LS-DYNA model. Page 4 of 27IES --za- SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.07/24/1 4 Table 4 -Reservoir Water Material Properties Mass Bulk Density Modulus p K (pef)(psi) 62.4 3.1E+05 4.Compressible Reservoir and Massed Foundation Boundary Conditions The explicit simulation required the removal of the displacement supports from the far end of the reservoir and foundation (the cut faces)and replaced with a non-reflecting boundary condition for the seismic analysis. 4.1.Removal of Displacement Supports Initially a quasi-static analysis was performed to determine the support reactions at the cut boundaries of the foundation and reservoir.This involved adding roller supports to these boundaries as indicated in Figure 3 and a simulation was performed within LS-DYNA.The gravity loads of the dam and reservoir were ramped up in 5 seconds of analysis and the analysis was continued for another 5 seconds in order that the system reached the at rest condition.The selected system damping ratio was 7 times the transient damping ratio in order to ensure reaching at rest condition. Geometry . ac |7/18/2014 10:01 AM 13Batbreeescetrrprrppry+COOSCCHSEHEOSSOOOCHOSE SHOOT OEHOHSOCOEOO CEOS Y L+.,9008088008Figure 3 -Schematics of support condition for quasi-static analysis =>ALASBEDENERGYAUTHORITY Page 5 of 27 -za- SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.07/24/41 4 To perform the transient analysis with a massed foundation,the displacement supports were removed and replaced by their corresponding nodal forces calculated by the quasi-static simulation.The intention of this procedure was to prevent reflection of seismic waves at the displacement boundaries. 4.2.Non-Reflecting Boundaries Non-reflecting boundary conditions were implemented at the cut faces of the reservoir and foundation to absorb the outgoing waves to prevent their reflection within the system. 5.Dam -Foundation Interface Frictional contact was used at the dam-foundation interface both in explicit and implicit simulations.This interface does not transfer tensile stresses but compressive stress is transferred while shear stress transfer is limited to the product of the frictional coefficient and compression stress. Both static and dynamic coefficients of friction were set to Hs =Ha =1.2 For modal analysis this contact was changed to bonded type. 6.Modal Analysis A modal analysis of the system was performed to give an indication of system behavior and the healthiness of modeling concepts.The estimated major mode shapes and frequencies were used in determining the Rayleigh damping factors and upper limits of the mesh size and time increment.A realistic estimate of the main frequency of the system is also important for seismologists and geotechnical engineers to determine the design spectral response and seismic excitations. Modal analysis was performed on the model with the same finite element mesh.The contact between the dam and foundation was changed to bonded type and the foundation was considered to be massless.The cut faces of the foundation had frictionless supports to prevent displacements that would normal to them. Models with and without hydrodynamic effects are presented herein to show the importance of the reservoir contribution to seismic response.Two sets of results using the Westergaard incompressible concept and the results from the compressible concept (acoustic)are presented. 6.1.Model without Reservoir A modal analysis was performed on a model with no reservoir.Three main modal frequencies and their corresponding modal mass ratios in both directions are presented in Table 5 along with the cumulative ratios.Figure 4 shows the directional deformations in X-direction for mode 1.Table 5 shows that modes {=ALASKAGRE)ENERGY AUTHORITY Page 6 of 27 -z- SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.07/24/14 1 and 2 are mainly horizontal while mode 3 is vertical.It also shows that more than 90%of the mass is achieved by mode 3. Table 5 --Major Modes of System Resulted from the Modal Analysis without Reservoir Mode Frequency Period Ratio of Effective Mass to Total Mass f T X-Direction X-Direction Y-Direction Y-Direction (Hz)(sec)individual Cumulative individual Cumulative 1 1.4667 0.6818 0.5618 0.5618 0.0200 0.0200 3.0416 0.3288 0.3549 0.9167 0.0682 0.0883 3.239 0.3087 0.0005 0.9172 0.8682 0.9565 6.2.Model with Westergaard Mass Modal analysis was repeated on a model where reservoir hydrodynamic effect was implemented by Westergaard nodal masses.Three main modal frequencies and their corresponding modal mass ratios are presented in Table 6.Table 6 shows that modes |and 2 are majorly horizontal and mode 3 is vertical.It also shows more than 90%of the mass is achieved by mode 3. Table 6 Major Modes of System Resulted from the Modal Analysis with Westergaard Masses Mode Frequency Period Ratio of Effective Mass to Total Mass f T X-Direction |X-Direction |Y-Direction |Y-Direction (Hz)(sec)individual Cumulative individual Cumulative 1 1.0836 0.9228 0.5994 0.5994 0.0086 0.0086 2.3795 0.4203 0.3148 0.9143 0.0006 0.0092 3.2035 0.3122 0.0096 0.9238 0.9390 0.9483 f=ALASKA'QM ENERGY AUTHORITY Page 7 of 27 ---2Z- SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.07/24/14 6.3.Model with Compressible Representation of Reservoir G:Modal-noReservoir Directional Deformation Type:Directional Deformation(X Axis) Frequency:1.4667 Hz Unit:m Global Coordinate System 7/18/2014 10:56 AM ry 200027764 Max0.00024848 0.00021931 4 0.00019015 0.00016099 0.00013182 0.00010266 7.3495e-5 4.4332e-5 4.51680-5 Min Figure 4 -First mode shape of the system resulted from the modal analysis without Reservoir A third modal analysis was performed on a model where reservoir is represented by an acoustic body. Three main modal frequencies and their corresponding modal mass ratios in both directions are presented in Table 7.This analysis resulted in the most accurate estimation of the first mode of vibration of the system.Modal mass ratios from this analysis could be misleading as they were obtained using the whole mass of reservoir. Table 7 -Major Modes of System Resulted from the Modal Analysis with Compressible Representation of Reservoir Mode Frequency Period f oT (Hz)*(sec) 1.1403 0.8770 1.5683 0.6376 1.9242 0.5197 [=ALASKAGME)ENERGY AUTHORITY Page 8 of 27 Zz SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.07/24/1 4 7.Transient Analysis Settings 7.1.Rayleigh Damping Massless Foundation Concept A global damping ratio of €=7%was used for implicit simulation in Ansys-Mechanical and Rayleigh damping factors were calculated based on the following equations: 2R 1 2a=2a,-----,,=2§--_-____$"14R42VR B eT ER G2 The main circular frequency of w,=6.81rad/sec (f,=1.08Hz)and R =3.0 was used.The equations determined a mass coefficient of @ =0.762/sec and a stiffness coefficient of B =5.56E - 3 sec.The variation of Rayleigh damping with period is presented in Figure 5. Global Rayleigh Damping -Implicit Model 100%+DampingRatio1% 0.01 01 1 10 Period (sec} Figure 5 -Rayleigh Damping Diagram for a@ =0.762/sec and B =5.56E -3 sec Massed Foundation Concept Rayleigh mass coefficient of a =0.4/sec was used for explicit simulations in LS-DYNA and the stiffness coefficient was set to zero.Variation of damping ratio with frequency in this case is presented in Figure 6. [EALASKAENERGYAUTHORITY Page 9 of 27 -yZ SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.07/24/1 4 Global Rayleigh Damping -Explicit Model 10%-r er 1 ax | : ;"isk 8 6%- i « 2 ce 4 __ a 4% i 2% .Cbd Do |0%i 0.01 0.4 "4 10 Period (sec) Figure 6 -Rayleigh Damping Diagram for a =0.4/sec and 8 =0.0 sec 7.2.Element Sizes in Simulations The element sizes used in the model are presented in Table 8.The shear wave velocity in the foundation (V,=6000 ft/sec),generates frequencies as high as 15 Hz which are accommodated with an element size of 40'resulting in minimum 10 elements per wavelength. Table 8 -Element Size in Model Bodies Dam Foundation Reservoir Element Size 20'40'30' 7.3.Time Increments The time increment was determined using the equation below.The increment was selected to ensure frequencies as high as 15 Hz could be accommodated.The maximum allowable time increment would be: 1<--=0.Styax S 8x15 0.008 sec The selected maximum time increment was set to 0.005 sec in the implicit simulation while the minimum time increment was 0.00001 sec. f=ALASKA ;(@E>ENERGY AUTHORITY Page 10 of 27 --z- SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.07/24/1 4 LS-DYNA automatically calculates the time increment necessary for a stable explicit solution.The program was set to use 20%of its calculated value and as a result a constant time increment equal to 0.00013 sec was used throughout the explicit simulation. 8.Loading 8.1.Dam Weight Dam weight was modeled in both simulations.The gravitational acceleration used in the simulations was: g =32.18 ft/sec? 8.2.Reservoir Weight/Hydrostatic Pressure The weight of the reservoir was implemented in the explicit simulation with the gravitational acceleration as stated above.For the implicit simulation,reservoir pressure was applied to dam -reservoir interface as (62.4 x h)Paydrostatic =2 Where: e h(ft)is the depth of an interface point in the reservoir and ¢Phyarostatic (pSt)is its hydrostatic pressure. 8.3.Hydrodynamic Pressure In the explicit simulation,seismic pressure waves were produced in the compressible reservoir and resulted in hydrodynamic pressure on the dam.In the implicit simulation,hydrodynamic pressures were simulated using Westergaard masses added to the dam upstream face. 8.4..Seismic Loading GIL Earthquake record as shown in Figure 7 was used as the base excitation in the simulations. [EALASKAENERGYAUTHORITY Page 11 of 27 Zz SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.07/24/1 4 Seismic Acceleration -GIL Earthquake Mihai cathacetdoccccci.elena eae ----Stream Direction -Vertical Time (sec) Figure 7 -Stream-Direction and Vertical Components of GIL Seismic Record (acceleration) Seismic Velocity -GIL Earthquake QOponnencecececenecnstsecteneatecestatecenteetesncneacacecsccsceceesenenenesesatatesisearaneresenect nedctntncccnceentnenensneesnensnenenrnetenens 15.penscsceneseoecfesene sce enteetseenettanennea tara tentnraccesnneseesanaeseeseaeaercoteconenenceaeaeraneneneaeteaatanecscttncncecnsneneeneneeeney VOfo--n-seceeeeffeceeecesesteeteees ec ceet estas ane tan cannes eneaeneceeneasnccescnara cone conencnceceneeseseracasacecnencereetetnereeeeenenss GB panne nee nae fe =fe eo fh wn nn ne ee ee ee ne ee eee eee nee eer en rene eae nee e nee e eae 3=0 TON =--Stream Direction> -VerticalAGpenceeeNYUPoeneeereeneeeeeeeeernnneenerenneeenananreneannennanentcenaeemencnnaneneear eee ee Se a EEE 15 foe ee ene ee ence e ee nee eee ee ee ne en ne ne ne ne ne nee nea en een ee nee ee ee ae ee ence ene eee ene ea ee -20 T T T T T T F ¥ 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Time (sec) Figure 8 -Stream-Direction and Vertical Components of GIL Seismic Record (velocity) {=ALASKA@M>ENERGY AUTHORITY Page 12 of 27 --z- SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.07/24/1 4 In the implicit simulation with a massless foundation,the seismic velocity (Figure 8)was used as input on the base and sides of the foundation and in the simulation.The explicit massed foundation analysis, seismic excitation was applied as traction records to avoid seismic wave reflection.A de-convolution analysis determined the damper coefficients used in calculating these tractions which were applied close to the base (at the interface of the red and blue zones of the foundation as colored in Figure 9). ss 1200'=HEUeet8000' Figure 9 -Foundation Model in De-convolution Analysis 9.De-convolution Analysis The de-convolution analysis was performed to determine damper coefficients from the seismic velocities which were used in calculating the seismic tractions that were subsequently applied to the massed foundation.Lysmer dampers were used as the initial damper coefficients which were updated by the de- convolution analysis.The analysis ensured that the final coefficients accounted for the actual foundation geometry and mesh.The following table summarizes the Lysmer damper values for the foundation. Table 9 -Foundation Rock Wave Velocities and Lysmer Damper Coefficients Shear Wave |Longitudinal Lysmer Lysmer Velocity Wave Damper -Damper - Velocity Tangential Normal Vs VL Cr Cn (ft/sec)'(ft/sec)(psi.sec/in)(psi.sec/in) 6177.2 10698.8 18.89 32.71 In order to verify and update above damper coefficients,a model of foundation was prepared as shown in Figure 9 with similar geometry,mesh size and global damping ratio as in the section model and with absorbing boundary conditions implemented to its cut faces at the base and sides.The initial estimates of tractions were calculated as the product of Lysmer damper (tangential for shear directions and normal for vertical direction)and the corresponding velocities from Figure 8.These tractions were applied at an interface which is 3 element heights above the base of the foundation. The de-convolution analysis involved the creation of a model of the foundation with similar geometry, mesh size and global damping ratio as in the cross section model.The cut faces at the base and sides of the foundation model were defined with absorbing boundary conditions.The foundation traction records /=ALASKAGHEEENERGYAUTHORITY Page 13 of 27 Zz SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.07/24/14 were initially calculated using Lysmer damper values (tangential for shear directions and normal for vertical direction)and the corresponding velocities from Figure 8.These tractions were applied at an interface within the foundation model which is 3 elements high as shown in red in Figure 9. Spectral Acceleration -GIL Earthquake 1.4 .4 Ly 1.2 rit fioPlathSoEelpS baby :-| whe de4 ! ° :Poycy)>:i ;re re=|oo [ot os ah Lt 2 ee WO To --Stream Direction-Target 3 i YY --Stream Direction -Computedwe06+ -iy Ww f N -Vertical -Target 3 7 OPA TPN&OUP at .ace _.7-- Vertical-Computed 0.4 -=aa |=J -:-|en SA02 a 1 - -.Interval of..-+= :oc nterest 1 fo i -es eee ee ee an ns te | 0 : 0.01 0.1 .1 10 Period (sec) Figure 10 -Spectral Acceleration of the Target Seismic Record Compared with Spectral Acceleration of Computed Record The foundation model described above was then analyzed and the resulting components of acceleration at the top of the foundation were recorded.The spectral acceleration responses were computed for these two components and then compared with the corresponding spectral responses of the free-field motions.The damping factors were adjusted so that the responses closely matched at the period range of interest.This procedure is presented in Figure 10. The de-convolution procedure adjusted the values of damping coefficients to those shown in Table 10. These values were used in explicit (LS-DYNA)simulation. Table 10 -Adjusted Damping Coefficients Resulted from De-convolution Analysis Stream Vertical Direction Direction Cx Cy . (psi.sec/in)(psi.sec/in) 17.76 32.84 [=ALASKA(GHEE)ENERGY AUTHORITY Page 14 of 27 -z- SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.07/24/1 4 10.Static Analysis Results Figure 11 shows the vertical stress distribution at the end of static analysis in Ansys-Mechanical and Figure 12 shows the vertical stress distribution at the end of quasi-static analysis in LS-DYNA.Figure 13 shows the hydrostatic pressure distribution in the reservoir at the end of quasi-static analysis.Quasi-static analysis procedure is described in Section 4. C:Transient Structural Normal Stress Type:Normal Stress(Y Ax Unit:psi Global Coordinate Syste Time:1 712212014 3:54 PM 9.3292 Max 43.39 -96.11 -148,83 -201.55 -254.27 4 -306.99 -359.71 412.43 465.15 Min Figure 11 -Static Vertical Stress Distribution in Dam due to Weight and Hydrostatic Pressure (Ansys-Mechanical Model) f=ALASKA(QM)ENERGY AUTHORITY Page 15 of 27 ---Z- SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.07/24/1 4 0721_SusitnaSection_GIL_newSFTimes10.01 Contours of Y-stress. mine-450.461,at etem#2172max=3.76465,at elem#2227 Fringe Leveis 3.765e+00 41660401 8.7080+01 I 1.325e402 -1.7790+02 92.233e+02 -2.688¢+02 3,142e402 &3.5960002 t. 0721_SusitnaSection_GIL_newSFvee10.1 "=Fringe LevelsContoursofY-stress $.9080+00omins.314.013,at elem 69 maxse-5.99801,at ems 1744 3.6800+01 {4.7600+01 92400104 1.292002 1.000402 1.906002Sm5'a218e102 25240402 2.892002 -3.140e+02|TT.heaeaeoheeeCreer44tirTTaeons$=aunnspttTT4artintttastttt+pttetigtToeoeeeepe+feaeoeconaebaspt+4L. Figure 13 -Hydrostatic Pressure Distribution in Reservoir (quasi-static analysis in LS-DYNA) 11.Seismic Simulations Dam stresses are presented for massless and massed foundation simulations.This is followed by comparative diagrams of monolith sliding,top of monolith displacement,monolith stresses and reservoir pressure. [=ALASKAGE)ENERGY AUTHORITY :Page 16 of 27 Za SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.07/24/1 4 11.1.Implicit Simulation with Westergaard Masses and Massless Foundation C:Transient Structural |Maximum Principal Stress |Type:Maximum Principal Strass Unit:psi TA Time:5.1307 am 7122/2014 11:04 AM Py 1371.7 Max 1188.1 1004.5 820.86 637.24 t 453.61 .269.99 86.365 97.259 -280.88 Min shed.padsbwaevepete.Figure 14 -1"Principal Stress at the Moment when it is Maximum on D/S Face of Monolith C:Transient Structural _.™ Maximum Principal Stress. Type:Maximum Principa faUnit:psi Time:4.4457 7/22/2014 11:03 AM -307.8 Min Figure 15 -1*Principal Stress at the Moment when it is Maximum on U/S Face of Monolith [EALASKAmEENERGYAUTHORITY Page 17 of 27 Ze SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.07/24/14 LigLt @|7.8281 Max-1749 -|-357.63-+-§40.35 -723.08 -905.81 -1088.5 -1271.3 -1454 -1636.7 Min Figure 16 -3™Principal Stress at the Moment when it is Minimum on D/S Face of Monolith C:Transient Structural os Minimum Principal Sreg-7yType:Minimum Principat Siregs Unit:psi Tt Time:5.1157 ' 7122/2014 11:25 AM oO 11.425 Max-171.58|-354.581 537.59 :,-720.59 : r -903.6 :-1086.6 -1269.6 -1452.6 *1635.6 Min Figure 17 -3 Principal Stress at the Moment when it is Minimum on U/S Face of Monolith [BALASKAENERGYAUTHORITY Page 18 of 27 -yz SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,retiable energy for the next 100 years.07/24/14 C:Transient Structural Norma!Stress Type:Normal Stress(Y # bg -133.76 Ad -433.79 -733.82 -1033.8 -1333.9 -1633.9 Min Figure 18 -Vertical Stress at the Moment when it is Maximum on D/S Face of Monolith C:Transient Structural Normal Stress at Type:Normal Stress(Y¥Aog Unit:psi ch py 1264 Max1064.5 767.68 +}-4 470.82tLg173.96 122.91 419.77 -716.63 1013.5 -1310.4 Min Seeenspyteebeers-Spta Figure 19 -Vertical Stress at the Moment when it is Maximum on U/S Face of Monolith TE2RLASIA Page 19 of 27 -za- SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. , 07/24/1 4 11.2.Explicit Simulation with Compressible Reservoir and Massed Foundation 0721_SusitnaSection_GiL_newSFTine=14.19 i Fringe LeveisContoursofMaximumPrincipalStress4.7690+02 mine-277.256,et elems#2181 max=476.889,at elems#2129 ' MH inv 27738002 _r\\e * L.tH sarissermees=a ri',b+.zt see enes Figure 20 -1*Principal Stress at the Moment when it is Maximum on D/S Face of Monolith 0721_SusitnaSection_GiL_newSF Timez 13.55 Cc.sof Principal Stress min=-156.151,at elem#1763M8x8749.705,at etems 2210 Fringe Levels TAQ7e+02 65910002 5.685e+02 _I 4.7790902 $.8742e402 2.968e402 2.0620+02 1.156402 2.502001 4,557e+01 21,562e702 I Figure 21 -1*Principal Stress at the Moment when it is Maximum on U/S Face of Monolith [=ALASKA(EK ENERGY AUTHORITY Page 20 of 27 --Z- SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.07/24/14 0721_SusitnaSection_Git_newSF "Tene®13.56 aContoursofMinimumPrincipalStressamine-1289.12,at elem 2134maxs-20.04,at elem#2227 t a H = bb ° 4 H-4P44 \ot 134as x ee x oe xSOKKXKS: .enticetx4 tTTT | rt tT am Fringe Leveia -2.0040+01+1.469e02 |-2.739e+02 _| 40086102 | S.27Te+02 65460402 -7.815e+02 9.084002 1.035003 11620403 -1.289¢+03 | Figure 22 -3™Principal Stress at the Moment when it is Minimum on D/S Face of Monolith 0721_SusitnaSection_GiIL_newSF Time 2 14.2 : Cc.of Mi Principet Stress min=-844,423,at elem#2181 meaxtl7,3585,at elom#2132 {ai4"Fringe Levels 4.73604016.8820+01 J+1,550¢+02 _| 2.412402 3.274702 -4.135e702 4.9976402 58500402 6.721402 -7.582e402 84440702 Figure 23 -3™Principal Stress at the Moment when it is Minimum on U/S Face of Monolith Fea RASA Page 21 of 27 -Z-. SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.07/24/14 0721 ;SusitnaSection_GiL_newSF Fringe Levete 3.862e+02 2.725e*02 15880902_| 4.513101 6.957e+01 1.823002 eo 2 +2.9608+02 4.007e+02 2340402 -S37 tet02 -7 5088702 ¥b.Hq Baeeea ,pee!fy Figure 24 -Vertical Stress at the Moment when it is Maximum on D/S Face of Monolith 0721_SusitnaSection_GIL_newSFTime®=13.55 -Pringe Levets Contours of Y-stress 7465e+02 mins-043.343,a elem#2132Max=746.496,at elena 2210 { $.775e+02 4.085e+02 _| 2.305002 7.0560+01 9.2420+01 ve +2.6740+02 a 4.304002 BY 4.054002 St:,-7.7440+02 Vie -cf 9.4330+02 Ni aon LYS >»b wane oun.eet r Figure 25 -Vertical Stress at the Moment when it is Maximum on U/S Face of Monolith (=5 ALASKAENERGYAUTHORITY Page 22 of 27 --z- SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.07/24/14 11.3. a> Comparative Diagrams SlidingDisplacement(in)2.5 2.0 15 1.0 Sliding Displacement -GIL Earthquake 7 t to so pode ii t. ! ances oe | | | | || |YN:of +Pprcd a 7 | be| { peed pad dd --Massiess Foundation --Massed Foundation pect pod TopDisplacement(in)mae |elesaeaeafo|Hdl Pilsg Pohlade.:.Sena eeeen eee an i |id |i 'Ply iy0.0 ame ', : 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 Time (sec) Figure 26 -Sliding Displacement of Dam Monolith Top Displacement -GIL Earthquake 8.0 i |Bod i '.4 bps pee cod iPepipeposbopen.pbb d ect |SEEFieeeaeesee|Ch "4 fiqrpng pepqgy ep hate |REL EERSTE antl --Massless Foundation :=--Massed Foundation ._:ce ee eee ot "mn Ty i : ae co rc eee!eens -"sepend wee ep to ol i t 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Time (sec) 16 18 20 E>ENERGY AUTHORITY[=ALASKA Figure 27 -Top Displacement of Dam Monolith Page 23 of 27 2 SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.07/24/1 4 Maximum Principal Stress U/S -GIL Earthquake 2100 a To I 2000 Lo.v4 :i 4 ..:to 4 \:1800 }-----a Ce ee rs ee ey ae { 1700 SENT A toe1600oN_a LZ Massed Foundation Elevation(ft)Massless Foundation Tyee pd To eno a 7 na ;ob : /core]:a foe Sot boos stot fet cpt lec pees Sf ors pepo1500!ce Po pee OD Pes Tes pope Uf bop bod Poach boot do audetedbop:!|i || 1400 ----4 ae }fowl nd bo.od 1 |_ ep eplics wfol tet:whois oe eeePepPrrepeersrerePerere1300: -2000 -1500 :-1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 Stress (psi) Figure 28 --Maximum Principal Stress on Upstream Face of Dam Maximum Principal Stress D/S -GIL Earthquake 2100 Tt Td So TT T 2000 1900 1800 Massed Foundation Elevation(ft)ry36Massless Foundation1600ae 1500 {a Sf aco -- 1400 =-:j !4 fone tb q 4 |ped rt ne Sopp1300:i -2000 -1500 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 Stress (psi) Figure 29 --Maximum Principal Stress on Downstream Face of am [=ALASKAQaENERGYAUTHORITY Page 24 of 27 --Zz- SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.07/24/14 Maximum Vertical Stress U/S -GIL Earthquake 2100 -1 T a TFaEeeeeeeeOaeeee2000wpepeayannaaa-wo |ef C SEERA1800VAweesaeco:::2 ON Gad ae 8 1700 i 1'>:Pog /oo =massed Foundationapoornee.A iwi|es i '|/a --Massless Foundation1600tas4leet..{-1 YY.a --i i 'SPREE AY 4 Sep We a1500"a 7 i SS"pap pe mo 7 rr eenenes Innand ot an i FA i oT oo ° |1000 to food -aaenne ro |STE :-ee ee re 1300 -- 2000 -1500 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 Stress (ps!) Figure 30 -Maximum Vertical Stress on Upstream Face of Dam Maximum Vertical Stress D/S -GIL Earthquake 2100 1900 + |- 1800 : ad roe ane fee..eee=J cholo A\tiote if.Ao 5 1700 _.eden ..+._whe.7 ' wee . ' '§7 "|:a i ee an V4 |meee wth _«<£V¥lassed FoundationCyeee..fe ef eh we .4o nd eee.wu -_a4 -_::-+;-Massless Foundation1600EGaotcetdosoo(oS ae \\ae err eee (eee oe eee -ato |e)nana en VOR poop 2 |1400 +-oo -- {.+|-F "+z 'to .i i1300 , -2000 -1500 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 Stress (psi) Figure 31 -Maximum Vertical Stress on Downstream Face of Dam FE ALASKAIERGYAUTHORITY Page 25 of 27 -yz SUSITNA-WATANA HYDR Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.07/24/14 Elevation(ft)Maximum Reservoir Pressure -GIL Earthquake 2100 - 2000 1900 1800 q[=]Qo1600 bon '|==Massed Foundation --Massless Foundation 100 Pressure (psi) 200 400 Figure 32 --Maximum Reservoir Pressure at its Interface with Dam The maximum normal and principal stresses calculated by the two models are listed in Table 11.The table also shows the change in calculated stresses from the inclusion of a massed foundation. Table 11 -Summary of Maximum Stresses Principal Stress (psi)Normal Stress (psi) Model Location Tensile Compressiv Tensile Compressiv e e Implicit Upstream '1368 -1635 1366 -1633 (Massless)|Downstream 1371 -1893 1086 -1309 Explicit Upstream 750 -796 746 -795 (Massed)Downstream 477 -1267 386 -964 Upstream 45%51%45%51% Change (%)Downstream 65%33%64%26% 12.Summary The results presented in this document show that including foundation mass and compressibility of reservoir in the analysis reduces the conservatism of the solution.The seismic demand both in terms of sliding displacement and maximum stress in concrete is also reduced.Table 11 shows that the maximum tensile stresses within the dam body are between 45%and 65%lower in the explicit model. ENERGY AUTHORITY[ALASKA Page 26 of 27 za SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years.07/24/1 4 The analysis described in this report is based on a simple 2D model,but it is recognized that the curved configuration of the dam axis will result in lateral distribution of loads.It is recommended a complete 3D model of the dam-foundation-reservoir should be produced and the results used for design decisions. 13.References {1}Lysmer,J.,et al.,"Finite Dynamic Model for Infinite Media,”J.Eng.Mech.Div.ASCE,589-877, 1969 [2]Joyner,W.B.,Chen,A.T.F.,"Calculation of Nonlinear Ground Response in Earthquakes,”Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America.Vol.65,No.5,pp.1315-1336,1975 [3]Mejia,L.H.,Dawson,E.M.,"Earthquake deconvolution for FLAC,"4th International FLAC Symposium on Numerical Modeling in Geomechanics,2006 [4]Zienkiewicz,O.C.,N.Bicanic and F.Q.Shen,"Earthquake input definition and the transmitting boundary conditions,”Proceedings Advances in Computational Nonlinear Mechanics I,pp.109-138, Springer-Verlag,1989 [5]Chopra,A.K.,"Earthquake Analysis of Arch Dams:Factors to be Considered,"The 14th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering,2008 [6]Ghanaat,Y.,"Theoretical Manual for Analysis of Arch Dams,”USACE ITL,1993 [7]Ghanaat,Y.,Hashimoto,P.S.,Zuchuat,O.,and Kennedy,R-P.,"Seismic fragility of Miihleberg Dam using nonlinear analysis with Latin Hypercube Simulation,”Proceedings of the 31st Annual USSD Conference,San Diego,California,April 11-15,2011 [8]Alaska Energy Authority,"Meeting No.4 -Susitna-Watana Dam Project Independent Board of Consultants and Advisors,”Bellevue,WA,April 2 -4,2014 [9]Hall,J.F.,"Problems Encountered from the Use or Misuse of Rayleigh Damping,”2006 [10]Westergaard,H.M.,"Water pressures on dams during earthquakes,”Transactions of ASCE 98,418- 433,1931 [11]FERC,"Engineering guideline for the evaluation of hydropower projects,”chapter 11,1999 [12]Ansys Release 15.0 User Manual,ANSYS Inc.,2013 [13]LS-DYNA Keyword User's Manual,Livermore Software Technology Corporation,2014 /=ALASKAGM)ENERGY AUTHORITY Page 27 of 27 a |ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY AEA11-022SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO WORK IN PROGRESS Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. Appendix B8 EPS Transmission Reports 42-19-REP_EPS Watana Transmission Study Pre-Watana Analysis ,11-17-REP_EPS Watana Hydro Transmission Corridor Report Susitna-Watana Hydroelectric Project Alaska Energy Authority FERC Project No.14241 July 2014 lectric power:ystems Consulting Engineers MWH Watana Transmission Study Pre -Watana Analysis July 30,2012 David A.Meyer Dr.James W.Cote Jr.,P.E. David W.Burlingame,P.E. WWW.EPSINC.COM :PHONE (907)522-1953 »3305 ARCTIC BLVD.,SUITE 201,ANCHORAGE,AK 99503 ¢FAX (907)522-1182 PHONE (425)883-2833 *4020 148th AVE NE,SUITE C,REDMOND,WA 98052 FAX (425)883-0464 MWH Watana Transmission Study Pre -Watana Summary of Changes Revision jj Revision Date figuss'Revision Description SsWenaes ss ees eeea 0 July 19,2012 Initial Report Draft ™ Table of Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ......:cssssscscccssstecsessnccsssaseccssssesssesesesssensassepseseessascecssesessuecsesteesesseesuesseaves IV 1 INTRODUCTION...eesssssccssesesssersssscecsessnsossssesuseessesseusessesseseasesseeesessersuesetaseasesanasasseaees 1 2 GENERATION DISPATCHES ..........cessscessssccccsssssnonsceeesscessssssanssensesersnsacesetseessencesseatesersnees 4 3 TRANSMISSION CONFIGURATIONS....ee ccssccecscnssesssnsesscessnstersssasesatenseenseseesensesnesasaze 44REACTIVESUPPORTANALYSISou...ceeccessstecssscssssneesssnecesssssssessessusecessesseeeceesesesseesensusenss 55TRANSIENTSTABILITYANALYSIS..0.ec scseeceesosssesescneessecesaeeeesssusessssssseeesceseetsssceensaeees 7 5.1 Summer Valley RESuIts ..........:ccssssscsecresssssnssecesssenersesserseensseasesssaaaeerssesseesssssensesseseseeceeesaesas 8 5.2 Summer Peak ReSults ........cssesssecenesescecerennanceseeessssesanecsaesssuaesecssseseesasaceesseseosssesceensseees 9 5.3.Winter Peak Results.........ccccssscssccsrscsseceessssssecersessseecsessscaessesecesssecseeeeeressseuseusessstsssssenene 9 6 POWER FLOW CONTINGENCY ANALYSIS Qu...ecccsscsccecssesseccesesssecesstessesecsesseresersneseeas 11 6.1 Power Flow Contingency -Criteria...eee eseeeessssessceceessesseteecesseesenssesneeesessesssnarensnes 11 6.2 Summer Valley ReSUults «0.00.0...ceeesceceeessecereeceesenersesssessaanencesesscecesseseesnerensueseessessesssesese 11 6.3 Summer Peak ReSults .0........ccssesscceeeessocsnsseesesssevsovessnneevsssnsseseeeesesesssreesennasseeeesesssaeeerenses 12 6.4 Winter Peak R@SUItS eccccecccssssssssseeesenceacecenseensessesanessnsseuecuasueesessseersesanaceeeeesssesceens 12 7 HEALY IMPORT LIMITS ANALYSIS ............cccccccsscssssrerssssecsssessecessseeesessesenuecssnereecssesessenees 12 B CONCLUSIONS2...cc cccccscceccsseeecnseeeeeneceecssssecseeeseaeeessssesesssssnsesssssseseesecceseesseasesscanesucuaes 13 APPENDIX A -DETAILED REACTIVE SUPPORT ANALYSIS ........ccccssssssesssssessseeessenerserseeensecs 15 APPENDIX B -DETAILED DYNAMIC RESULTS..........cccccsccssscccsssessseesssseeessesenseeccessusssseenenees 16 APPENDIX C -DETAILED POWER FLOW RESULTS .........cccccccsscsstecessteseseeeseseseecerevesseseetas 24 APPENDIX D -TRANSMISSION CONFIGURATION SINGLE LINE DRAWINGS........0...0.0..26 WWW.EPSINC.COM PHONE (907)522-1953 *3305 ARCTIC BLVD.,SUITE 201,ANCHORAGE,AK 99503 *FAX (907)522-1182 PHONE (425)883-2833 »4020 148th AVE.NE,SUITE C,REDMOND,WA 98052 FAX (425)883-0464 MWH Watana Transmission Study Pre -Watana List of Tables Table 1 Healy Transfer Limits .........c.cssecsssesensssscsesssseessecsascosssasssaeesensecossessteessanecseessnesteovessees VvTable2.1 Seasonal Generation Dispatches ...0........cc csscceeseesseceseeeceeeeenesseceeeesseeeenegaetoaserenatecesaenees 2 Table 2.2 Generation Dispatch #1,Healy at Full OUtpUt 0...eccsceeesersrsseessseneeceessseneeeessaeoees 2 Table 2.3 Generation Dispatch #2,HOCP offline woo...cece sesssseseeesesseesesssesessensesonseees veeeneaeeeeeees 3 Table 2.4 Generation Dispatch #3,Healy #1 at MINIMUM...ee ee eseeeceeeeeceeeeeeteneeeseeeeescasensees 4 Table 3.1 Transmission Configurations ............:cccscecscssessssecrsssnssecseccoeceesensenedntensaceesecisaaeetsoseeseess 5 Table 4.1 Reactive Support Locations and Configurations...sssescesereteeeeseeseneteneteeeens weeeeees 5Table4.2 Reactive Support RESUIts oo...cece ceesseseesessecsseeseetecsnsasererteseessesennsereedesererseasenensiene 6 Table 4.3 Reactive Support RESUMS 2...ee ccecscensceesseesseenerssesscesscsenesssnesscnsecassersonsesssecseessass 7 Table 5.2 Dynamic Analysis Disturbances...........cccessessssesesetsreneessesessenmscieessesseeeusesrsssentenseneessaens 8 Table 5.3 Healy Import Stability Limits -Summer Valley .......cs cccsscsscesessscsssesssessesssesseaseseeeee 9 Table 5.4 Healy Import Stability Limits -Summer Peak...css ssssesseecneerseesesseseecenssesesesseeers 9 Table 5.5 Healy Import Stability Limits -Winter Peak ccc ccesssesesssesssecssasesrensssessnsessseseeseass 10 Table 5.6 Healy Stability Limits,Transmission Configuration 3.0.0...ce cssssscssesseseseeseerseesevenerenes 10 Table 6.1 Power Flow Contingencles ............eseesencseeseeeecesenecnensecseeusessesssaseseseseeeneaesssescaeraees 11 Table 6.2 Healy Stability Limits (MW),Transmission Configuration 3 ....cccesssessseessesseseesseses 13 Table A.1 Detailed Reactive Support AnalySis ..........cssssescccesssesseeeserserersenssseseessessnaseneaenseaensees 15 Table B.1 Summer Valley -Dispatch #2,HCCP offline wu...se eeuaneeecvaceeseneeeeessseeneareaanaeeens 16 Table B.2 Summer Valley -Dispatch #3,Healy #1 at Min wu...esses cceeneesseessceeesaeeeerersees 17 Table B.4 Summer Peak -Dispatch #1,Healy Generation at Full Output...eee eeseeeees 18 Table B.5 Summer Peak -Dispatch #2,HCCP Offline 0.0...ee ee seceesenceresnenenesenenseenseenensneees 19 Table B.6 Summer Peak -Dispatch #3,Healy #1 at Mit...eessecssssessesceestesecetsstsrsesesneeres 20 Table B.7 Winter Peak -Dispatch #1,Healy Generation at Full Output .00...eee seeseereeeseeees 21 Table B.8 Winter Peak -Dispatch #2,HCCP Offline ..0.....ec eeeesseseceeeeeeeeseceseeneeeesesecaeeeseeesnacnea 22 Table B.9 Winter Peak -Dispatch #3,Healy #1 at Min...seesceccessssecssenseesseesescssteessetessensess 23 Table C.1 Power Flow Results -Summer Valley .............ccccccccsssssreesereeeecesesarseeeneeeneecsesesaenenaees 24 Table C.2 Power Flow Results -Summer Peak...csesseccsssecsecseseeseoeessesaaeecuctovsanseesreseesntanenenes 24 Table C.3 Power Flow Results -Winter Peak ...........csscccsssscsssesseesserscsssnescseoeeenauseesersesseseesseness 25 Table D.1 -Transmission Configuration #0...........::ccccsccccsscseersssesesseceeersesssasseeeseneseeeessacsssessaeees 26 Table D.2 -Transmission Configuration #1 ........ccccccsssscsecccsessseccerecssesnssseanaceeesceeeeesneseanaaseneeses 27 Table D.3 -Transmission Configuration #3.........cccccccccscccsssccesssssesssecscsessssseeeessceeeeecessrseessesasees 28 Table D.4 -Transmission Configuration 25.00...ccsccscsssscssecsseeteneeeneeeeseceeenedaerseetsessaeseensensensnenee 29 WWW.EPSINC.COM PHONE (907)522-1953 *3305 ARCTIC BLVD.,SUITE 201,ANCHORAGE,AK 99503 «FAX (907)522-1182 PHONE (425)883-2833 *4020 148th AVE.NE,SUITE C,REDMOND,WA 98052 FAX (425)883-0464 MWH Watana Transmission Study Pre -Watana Executive Summary EPS has completed the Northern System Analysis to define the expected Railbelt transmission system prior to the completion of the proposed Watana project.This project analyzed the northern system between Anchorage and Fairbanks to determine the required transmission upgrades.The results of this study will be utilized with the preliminary results of other Railbelt studies to determine the most probable pre-Watana transmission configuration.This "probable” transmission configuration will be used in system studies to determine the impact of the proposed Watana project on the transmission grid. The transmission configurations analyzed included single or double circuit 230 kV lines from Lorraine to Douglas,a new 138 kV line (new line constructed at 230 kV but operated at 138 kV) from Douglas to Healy,upgrade the Healy-Wilson and Healy-North Pole lines to 230kV line and construct a new station at Gold Creek substation between Stevens and Cantwell was also analyzed. The transmission configurations were analyzed for the summer valley,summer peak and winter peak conditions using three different Healy generation levels.The three Healy generation levels included Healy generation at full output (including Eva Creek),HCCP offline (Healy #1 and Eva Creek at full output),and Healy #1 at minimum output (no Eva Creek).The cases were created to show the sensitivity of the Healy import limits due to different Healy generation levels. When the lines from Douglas -Healy are upgraded to 230 KV,significant reactive compensation is required on the Railbelt system,especially during periods of little or no energy transfer over the Intertie.Until the Watana or another large hydro project is constructed,the Anchorage- Fairbanks Intertie is recommended to consist of a second line between Healy and Douglas constructed at 230 kV but operated at 138 kV.The results also show that adding the Gold Creek substation between Stevens and Cantwell results in a significant reduction in the required reactive support for the 138 kV and 230 kV Healy to Douglas line configurations and also provides increased sectionalizing. Stability analysis was used to quantify the maximum Healy import levels based on different transmission and generation configurations and that in most cases the amount of power transferred from Healy north is somewhat constant with decreased Healy/Eva Creek generation allowing increased imports from the south.The addition of the second 138 kV line between Healy and Douglas increases the Healy import limit by a small amount for the same cases butprovidesforthefirmtransferofthesamepower.Reducing Healy generation (turning HCCP offline,running Healy #1 at minimum)increases the Healy import limit.Upgrading of the Healy Gold Hill /Wilson lines to 230 kV would further increase the Healy import limits to beyond 155 MW for all dispatches. Power flow results show that the GVEA system will require transmission improvements in order to handle increased transfer levels.These upgrades will include increased transmission capacity on the 69 kV system from the Gold Hill /Wilson areas and possible transmission line additions.These upgrades are under the purview of GVEA and are outside of the focus of this study. This study defined the most probable pre-Watana Railbelt transmission system configuration. This configuration includes the equipment additions below. e Add one 138 kV lines from Douglas to Healy (new line constructed to 230 kV) e Gold Creek Substation between Stevens and Cantwell WWW.EPSINC.COM PHONE (907)522-1953 *3305 ARCTIC BLVD.,SUITE 204,ANCHORAGE,AK 99503 «FAX (907)522-1182 PHONE (425)883-2833 *4020 148th AVE.NE,SUITE C,REDMOND,WA 98052 *FAX (425)883-0464 iv MWH Watana Transmission Study Pre -Watana o 30 MVAR's of reactors (switchable) e Lorraine Substation o 2--230kV lines from Lorraine to Douglas o 1-230kV line from Lorraine to Teeland o 1-230 kV line from Lorraine to Plant 2 o 2-230 kV lines from Lorraine to Pt.Mackenzie o 80 MVAR's of reactors (switchable or SVC) e Fossil Creek 115 kV substation e Raptor Sub -Fossil Creek 115 kV line e Bernice Lake -Beluga HVDC Line e New 115 kV Line Bradley -Soldotna e Rebuild 230 kV line Dave's Creek -University The Fossil Creek substation,Raptor -Fossil Creek,Beluga-Bernice HVDC,Bradley-Soldotna and Dave's Creek-University improvements have been identified from previous Railbelt studies. The probable transmission configuration will allow for Healy import levels between 100 and 130 MW if HCCP is offline,and 65 MW with all of Healy generation online.Table 1 shows the Healy transfer limits for the different Healy generation levels and load seasons. Table 1 Healy Transfer Limits Summer Valley|Summer Peak |Winter Peak Import Export*}Import Export*|Import Export* gl --65 160 65 161 g2 65 106 110 150 100 142 g3 100 112 130 140 125 135 *includes Eva Creek generation Case The reliability of the GVEA system is increased by removing a single contingency islanding that occurs on the Healy -Douglas -Teeland line sections.The additions will also easily meet the future transmission system needs with the addition of the Watana hydro station by allowing for the conversion of the 138 kV lines from Douglas to Healy to 230 kV operation. WWW.EPSINC.COM PHONE (907)522-1953 *3305 ARCTIC BLVD.,SUITE 201,ANCHORAGE,AK 99503 *FAX (907)522-1182 PHONE (425)883-2833 *4020 148th AVE.NE,SUITE C,REDMOND,WA 98082 ¢FAX (425)883-0464 Vv MWH Watana Transmission Study © Pre -Watana 1 introduction EPS has completed the Northern System Analysis for the MWH pre-Watana project.The purpose of the study is to evaluate the transmission improvements required in the Railbelt transmission system ("backbone”)prior to the construction of Watana.For purposes of this study,the backbone transmission system is defined as the 230 and 138 kV transmission lines from Anchorage to Gold Hill and Wilson substations in GVEA.Transmission requirements beyond the backbone are considered outside the scope of this study and are under the responsibility of the local utility. The study utilized three seasonal power flow cases,summer valley,summer peak,and winter peak,using the IOC approved 2020 PSS/E base cases as a starting point.The pre-2023 powerflowcaseswereconfiguredtoanalyzethenorthernsystemtoidentifyfacilityalternativesandto recommend a northern system plan for the pre-2023 time frame for different levels of Healy generation output and different levels of GVEA imports.The transmission upgrades were determined by applying the criteria mentioned below to determine their cost effectiveness for possible future Railbelt generation additions.Following the completion of the transmission system upgrades,it is assumed that the GVEA BESS will be available for loadshed and spinning reserve contributions as opposed to being scheduled for transmission contingencies. EPS assumed Healy Clean Coal and Eva Creek wind project were available for dispatch in the study. The Northern transmission system evaluation assumed the most probable transmission system exists in the Central and Kenai transmission systems.The major improvements included in the study are:Anchorage -Dave's Creek line upgraded to 230 kV,Beluga -Bernice HVDC line, new Bradley -Soldotna 115 kV line,new Lake Lorraine station,and additional SVC capability in the 230 kV system. 2 Generation Dispatches Generation dispatches were created to determine the effects different generation configurations would have on the results.Generation dispatches were created for each of the three load seasons,winter peak,summer peak,and summer valley.The generation dispatches were also created based on three different dispatch configurations of Healy plant outputs.These dispatches are Healy generators at maximum output (Healy #1,HCCP,and Eva Creek at full output),HCCP offline (Healy #1 and Eva Creek at full output),and Healy at minimum output (HCCP offline,Eva Creek offline,Healy #1 at minimum output of 18 MW).The Healy generation configurations are shown below in Table 2.1. July 30,2012 Page 1 Qy Consulting Engineers PR,Electric Power Syspr%,ectric rower Jstens is MWH Watana Transmission Study Pre -Watana Table 2.1 Seasonal Generation Dispatches Generator Output (MW)Gen.|.----Eva North Pole.4 :Dispatch Healy #HCP Creek Generators Healy Full cull Full adjusted based onMaxGVEAimport- HCP offline Full Full adjusted based onoffline/ GVEA import Healy offline minimum offline adjusted based onMinGVEAimport Power flow cases were created for the three different generation dispatches with Healy import levels ranging from 75 MW to 155 MW in 5 MW increments by adjusting or reducing the generation at North Pole (North Pole #1,#2,CC1,and ST2).The North Pole plant output was reduced until a maximum of 155 MW of Healy import was achieved.It was assumed that 155 MW of Healy import would be beyond the maximum import reasonable without the addition of the Watana large hydro unit.Additional cases were created below the 75 MW Healy import level for some summer valley and summer peak cases in order to verify stable system response. Tables 2.2,2.3,and 2.4 shows the different Healy import cases created for the three different generation dispatches. Table 2.2 Generation Dispatch #1,Healy at Full Output Healy Flows(MW)Healy [Summer Summer Winter Import _Export*Gen Valley Peak Peak 50 145 103 -xX - 55 -150 103 -x - 60 155 103 -x - 65 160 103 -x x 75 170 103 -x x 80 175 103 -x x 85 180 103 -x xX 90 185 103 -xX x 95 190 103 -x x 100 195 103 7 x xX 105 200 103 -x x 110 205 103 -xX x 115 210 103 -x x 120 214 102 -x x 125 219 102 -x x 125 220 103 --x 130 225 103 --x 135 230 103 --x 140 235 103 --x 145 239 102 --x 150 244 102 --x 155 249 102 --x *includes Eva Creek output x denotes power flow case use July 30,2012 - . « Page 2 e &YY XDby as Q Cledtic Power Sistens Consulting Enginees ,°MWH Watana Transmission Study Pre -Watana Table 2.3 Generation Dispatch #2,HCCP offline Summer Summer WinterHealyFlows(MW)Healy 'Import Export®#-Gen-f-Valley Peak Peak|30 71 47 'x -- 35 76 47 x -- 40 81 47 x -- 45 86 47 x -- 50 91 47 Xx -- -|55 96 47 x -- }60 101 47 x -- 65 106 47 x - 75 115 48 -x x|80 120 48 -x x 85 125 48 -x x 90 130 48 -x x 95 135 48 -x x 100 140 48 -x x |105 144 47 -x x ) 110 150 48 -x x 115 155 48 -xX x 120 159 47 -x x 125 165 48 -x x |130 169 47 -x x :135 175 48 -x x 140 179 47 -x x 145 184 47 -x x 150,189 47 -x x 7 155 195 48 -x x *includes Eva Creek output x denotes power flow case use July 30,2012 Page 3 oL.MWH Watana Transmission Study Pre -Watana Table 2.4 Generation Dispatch #3,Healy #1 at Minimum Healy Flows(MW)Healy [Summer Summer Winter Import Export*-Gen Valley Peak Peak 60 72 18 x -- 65 77 18 X -- 70 82 18 X -- 75 85 18 x xX x 80 90 18 x x x 85 95 18 x x x 90 100 18 x X x 95 105 18 x xX x 100 110 18 x x x 105 115 18 -x XxX 110 120 18 -x x 115 125 18 -X 4 120 130 18 -x x 125 135 18 -x x 130 140 18 -x xX 135 145 18 -x x 140 150 18 -x x 145 155 18 -x x 150 160 18 -x x 155 165 18 -x x *includes Eva Creek output x denotes power flow case use 3 Transmission Configurations Several transmission upgrades and configurations were studied to determine their impact on the transfer limits into and out of the Healy substation.The transmission configurations include a second 230 or 138 kV (constructed at 230 kV,operated at 138 kV)line from Healy to Douglas, one or two 230 kV lines from Lorraine to Douglas,and upgrading the 138 kV transmission lines from Healy north to Gold Hill (reconductored to 954 Rail)and Wilson to 230 kV. A proposed Gold Creek substation was analyzed for cases with two transmission lines (138 kV or 230 kV)between Douglas and Healy.The Gold Creek substation will be located between the Cantwell and Stevens substations and will include breaker locations for both transmission lines between Healy and Douglas.The combinations of the different transmission configurations are shown below in Table 3.1.Single line drawings of the transmission configurations are included in Appendix D. July 30,2012 Page 4 lectrig Frower Systems ey Consulting Engineers MWH Watana Transmission Study Pre -Watana , Table 3.1 Transmission Configurations __|Healy-Douglas|Healy -Douglas Lorraine -Gold Creek upgrade linesConfigDouglas;from Healy to:Substation .##1 #2 #17 #2 #1 #2 Wilson Gold 138 kV 230 kV 230 kV 138kV 230kV 230 kV 0 xX x 1 xX x x 2 x x x x 3 x x x x xo 4 x x x x x 5 x x x x x x x 6 x x x x 7 x x x x x 8 x x x x x x 9 x x x x x x 4 Reactive Support Analysis Reactive support analysis was used to determine the location and size of the reactors on the Northern System.The reactive support is required to keep voltages below their maximum limit during line closing and low load and power transfer system conditions.The analysis includedsensitivitiestodeterminetheamountofreactivesupportinSVC's versus from fixed reactors. Possible locations for reactive support will include the Healy,Douglas,and Lorraine substations, as well as at Gold Creek.The combinations of reactive support locations to be studied are shown in Table 4.1. Table 4.1 Reactive Support Locations and Configurations Goldi|Doug!L iConfig#|Healy ouglas Creek orraine a x x x b x x x The criteria to determine the amount of reactive support required for the Northern System includes maximum voltage limits allowed on the Railbelt system as well as operation limits of the generators and the SVC's.The criteria are listed below: e Voltages at the 230 kV undersea cable must be below 1.02 pu e Voltages at 230 kV,138 kV,and 115 kV must be below 1.05 pu «Generators operating at unity power factor e SVC's operating with a minimum 5 MVAR of margin Line closing analysis on the transmission lines were used to determine the amount of reactors required to meet the criteria.The worst case line closing events are on the Healy -Douglas line sections.These line sections were opened at each end for each transmission configuration listed above and the amount of reactive support required was recorded.The summer valley cases with minimal import /export power between utilities represents the worst case system configuration. July 30,2012 Page 5 a Clectric Power Systens(a Pss Consulting Engineers ms MWH Watana Transmission Study Pre -Watana It should be noted that the results assume that the existing 138 kV and 230 kV line reactors in the Anchorage area are in service and are online.It was assumed that the Lorraine reactor would be primarily used to keep the voltage on the 230 kV undersea cable at or below its maximum voltage limit of 1.02 pu.The Douglas,Gold Creek,and Healy reactors would primarily be used to reduce the voltages on the Healy -Douglas transmission lines during line closing events or low power transfer conditions.It was assumed that no additional reactive support is required for the current single 138 kV line between Douglas and Healy configuration except to control the voltage of the undersea 230 kV cable.The results of the reactive support analysis are shown in Table 4.2 below.Detailed results are shown in Appendix C. Table 4.2 Reactive Support Results Healy -Healy-|Lorraine -Gold upgrade No GVEA Import TotalConfig]Douglas |Douglas |Douglas Creek H-H-Reactor Size (MVAR)Comp##1 4«6#2 |#2 #2 |#1 #2 |138 230]W GH Lorr Doug Healy|(MVAR)138 kV 230 kV 230 kV kV kV 230 kV Crk 0 x x 53 fe)-0 53 1 X x x 70 0 :0 70 2 x x x x 76 137 -5 218 3 x x x x x 76 -27 is)103 4 x x x x 81 137 -27 245 5 x x x x x x x 81 -27 0 108 - 6 X x Xx x 121 240 -101 461 7 x x x x Xx 107.-83 0 190 8 X x x x x 7115 244 -131 490 93 x x x x x X x 99 -92 3 193 The results show that the Gold Creek location (configurations 5,7,and 9)results in a decrease of greater than 50%of the reactive support compared to using Douglas (configurations 2,4,6, 8).The results also show significant reactive support requirements for cases with 2 -230 kV lines from Douglas -Healy (configurations 6-8).Based on these results,it is not recommended to install and operate the lines from Douglas -Healy at 230 kV.If an additional line from Douglas to Healy is constructed,it is recommended that it be built to 230 kV but operated at 138 kV.Upgrading the line from Healy -Gold Hill and operating it at 230 kV in conjunction with operating the Healy -Wilson line at 230 kV results in increased reactive requirements at Healy due to the increased charging of the transmission lines. The reactive analysis was also completed for the summer peak and winter peak cases with high transfers north to Healy.These simulations were used to determine the maximum amount of reactors that could be online before the voltage would be reduced below 1.0 pu.The difference between the reactive support during high transfer levels and the summer valley minimal transfercaseswereusedtodetermineifswitchedreactorscanbeusedand/or if part of the reactive support should be in the form of SVC's.The amount of reactive support in terms of fixed caps and SVC capability for the reduced set of cases are shown in Table 4.3 July 30,2012 Page 6 iS Ciecric Power SystengCPSConsutingEngineers" MWH Watana Transmission Study: Pre -Watana Table 4.3 Reactive Support Results Healy-|Healy-|Lorraine-|Gold upgrade Reactive Support (MVAR)Config]Douglas |Douglas |Douglas |}Creek |H-H- ##1 #2 |#1 #2]#1 #215138 230]W GH Lorraine Gold Crk 138 kV 230 kV 230kV |kV kV |230kV |Fix SVC Tot Fix SVC Tot 0 xX x 50 0 -50 - 1 x x x 80 O-80 - 3 x Xx x x x 80 0 80 30 0 30 5 x x x x x x x |60 20 80 10 20 30 Sa x x x x x x x |80 O 80 30 0 30 The results for the reduced set of cases shows that the reactive support requirements increases from 50 to 80 MVAR's with the addition of the second 230 kV line from Lorraine to Douglas (configuration 1).The addition of the second 138 kV line from Healy -Douglas (configuration 3) requires an additional 30 MVAR of reactors at the proposed Gold Creek substation.Upgrading and operating the lines from Healy to Gold Hill and Healy to Wilson (configuration 5)require 20 MVAR of the reactive compensation at Lorraine and Gold Creek to be from SVC's.A sensitivity cases (configuration 5a)was created to determine if replacing the SVC capability with switchable reactors would impact the transfer capability of the system. 5 Transient Stability Analysis Transient stability simulations were run to assess the impact of the proposed system improvements.Simulations of unit trip events and line fault and trip events were conducted to include the major transmission system lines as well as the large Railbelt generation units.These disturbances are shown in Table 5.2.All new transmission additions will have communications assisted protection schemes that result in clearing times of 5 cycles for the near and far end of the transmission lines.These values were also used for current transmission -line contingencies. July 30,2012 Page 7 res Pever Sisters:&Sa Consulting Engineers we MWH Watana Transmission Study Pre Watana Table 5.2 Dynamic Analysis Disturbances Contingency Volt .Clearing Time(kV)Fault Location (Cycles)Name Line Local Remote ao Wilson-Ft_WW 138 Wilson 5 5 al North_Pole-Ft_WW 138]North_Pole 5 5 a2 Douglas-Healy 138 Douglas 5 i} a3 Douglas-Healy 138 Healy 5 5 a4 Lorraine-West_Term 230 Lorraine 5 5 aS Lorraine-Douglas 230 Lorraine 5 5 a6 Lorraine-Douglas 230 Douglas 5 5 bo Eva_Creek-Healy 138 Healy 5 5 b1 Eva_Creek-Healy 138 Eva 5 5 b2 Eva_Creek-Wilson 138 Eva 5 5 b3 Gold_Hill-Healy 138 Healy 5 5 ud Eva_Creek-Healy 230 Healy 5 5 ul Eva_Creek-Healy 230 Eva 5 5 u2 Eva_Creek-Wilson 230 Eva 5 5 u3 Gold_Hill-Healy 230 Healy 5 5 gO NPCC1 n/a -trip only g3 Healy n/a-trip only 94 HCCP n/a-trip only The transient stability criteria include limits on the system frequency,voltage levels,and system response,and unit response.The transient criteria listed below will be used for N-1 contingency analysis and will be applied to the backbone of the northern transmission system. e Sustained voltages on the 138 kV and 230 kV buses must not be below 0.85 pu ®Frequency must stay between 57 Hz and 62 Hz : . e System response must not exhibit large or increasing amplitude oscillations in frequency or voltage e Units must not exhibit out of step or loss of synchronism response e Single contingency cannot cause uncontrolled load shedding The contingencies were run for the transmission configurations and generation dispatches listed above.The output files were analyzed along with plots of the simulations to determine the the stability limit of power flows into the Healy substation.The simulation plots are included in an electronic appendix due fo its large size. 5.1 Summer Valley Results The summer valley results show that the Healy import level for cases with HCCP offline (dispatch 2)are quite small at 35 MW even following the addition of the Lake Lorraine - Douglas transmission line in comparison to the assumed 75 MW GVEA import limit of the existing system.The addition of the second 230 kV line from Lorraine -Douglas does not increase the stability limit The addition of the second 138 kV line from Douglas to Healy increases the stability limit to 100 MW while keeping Eva Creek and Healy #1 online at their maximum.With Healy at its minimum and HCCP and Eva Creek offline (dispatch 3)the stability limit increases from 35 to 65 MW for cases with a single 138 kV line from Douglas to Healy Cledric Power SystemsaonVyConsultingEngineers July 30,2012 Page 8 MWH Watana Transmission Study Pre Watana (configurations 0 and 1).The addition of the second 138 kV line from Douglas to Healy (configurations 3 and 5)increases the stability limit to its maximum allowed while keeping Healy #1 online at its minimum output.Table 5.3 shows the stability results for the summer valley cases. Table 5.3 Healy Import Stability Limits -Summer Valley Healy Limits (MW) Case 0 1 3 5 Import Export*|Import Export*|Import Export*]Import Export* g2 35 +76 35 76 65 106 65 106 g3 65 77 65 77 100 112 100 112 limiting contingency:Lorraine -Douglas limiting contingnecy:Douglas -Healy limited due to generation dispatch *includes Eva Creek Generation 5.2 Summer Peak Results The summer peak case results show that the stability limit does not increase materially with the addition of a second 230 kV line from Douglas to Lorraine and the second 138 kV line from Douglas to Healy when Healy generation is at full output (dispatch 1),however,the second line does prevent the loss of load in the GVEA system for the loss of a Anchorage -Fairbanks line. The conversion of the Healy to Gold Hill and Healy to Wilson 138 kV lines to 230 kV operation along with the addition of the second line from Douglas to Healy allow for stable Healy import capability to at least 155 MW.Turning off HCCP (dispatch 2 and 3)increases the stability limit compared to cases with HCCP online.Dispatches 2 and 3 also show an increase in the stability limits due to the addition of the second 138 kV line from Douglas to Healy.Upgrading the 138 kV lines from Healy north to Gold Hill and Wilson allow for a Healy import level of 155 MW without stability problems.Table 5.4 shows the stability results for the summer peak cases. Table 5.4 Healy Import Stability Limits -Summer Peak Healy Limits (MW) Case 0 1 3 5 Import Export*}|Import Export*}Import Export*|Import Export* gi 55 150 55 150 70 165 125 219 g2 80 120 85 125 110 150 155 195 g3 80 90 85 95 130 140 155 165 limiting contingency:Lorraine -Douglas ee limiting contingnecy:Healy -Gold Hill or Healy -Wilson limited due to generation dispatch *includes Eva Creek Generation 5.3 Winter Peak Results The winter peak results are similar to the summer peak results.Dispatching all Healy generation online at full output (dispatch 1)results in stability limits between 75 and 85 MW for July 30,2012 Page 9 free Preset SystensQD.consulting Engineers MWH Watana Transmission Study Pre -Watana the different transmission configurations (0,1,and 3)until the 138 kV lines from Healy north are upgraded to 230 kV (configuration 5).The addition of the second 138 kV line from Healy to Douglas allows for a large increase in Healy import levels for dispatch cases 2 and 3.The addition of all transmission upgrades (configuration 5)results in maximum Healy import levels of above 155 MW.Table 5.5 shows the stability results for the winter peak cases. Table 5.5 Healy Import Stability Limits -Winter Peak Healy Limits (MW) Case 0 1 3 5 Import Export*|Import Export*|!mport.Export*|Import Export* gl 75 171 75 171 85 181 155 249 g2 75 117 80 122 115 157 155 195 g3 80 85 85 95 130 140 155 165 \limiting contingency:Lorraine-DouglasLolimitingcontingnecy:Healy -Gold Hill or Healy -Wilson limited due to generation dispatch *includes Eva Creek Generation Sensitivity analysis of configuration 5a with all reactive compensation in the form of switched shunts instead of 20 MVAR SVC's at Lorraine and Gold Creek (configuration 5)show minimal impact on the system response due to contingencies for all generation dispatches and seasonal cases.It is recommended that the reactive support be designed using switched reactors instead of SVC's.Detailed switching studies should be completed to ensure there are no adverse transmission system impacts due to energizing the reactors. The upgrade /operation of the 138 kV lines from Healy north to Gold Hill /Wilson along with two 230 kV transmission lines from Lorraine -Douglas and two 138 kV lines from Douglas to Healy result in the ability to import high amounts of energy into the Healy substation (155 MW)with unconstrained operation of the Healy generation units.Due to the significant costs of these upgrades and the unlikeliness that GVEA would import these levels of energy transmission, configuration 5 is not deemed a probable upgrade path without Watana being built.The addition of the second 138 kV line from Healy to Douglas increases the import levels into Healy and also increases the reliability.The second line eliminates GVEA islanding due to single contingencies and allows the import of energy into the GVEA system to become firm.Table 5.6 shows the Healy transfer limits for the different generation dispatches for transmission configuration 3. Table 5.6 Healy Stability Limits,Transmission Configuration 3 Summer Valley|Summer Peak |Winter Peak Import Export*|{mport Export*|Import Export* gl --70 165 85 181 g2 65 106 110 150 115s :157 g3 100 112 130 140 130 140 *includes Eva Creek generation Case July 30,2012 Page 10 Gres Prwer SystensYiQyConsultingEngineers” MWH Watana Transmission Study Pre -Watana 6 Power Flow Contingency Analysis Power flow single contingency (N-1)analysis was used to determine the steady state impact of the upgrading the northern system with the addition of 2 -230 kV lines from Lorraine to Douglas and the addition of a second 138 kV line from Douglas to Healy.The power flow contingencies to be used are 230 kV and 138 kV branches and transformers on the backbone system and are listed in Table 6.1.Since this study is focusing on upgrades required on the backbone system, overloads on other parts of the GVEA system will be mentioned only.Upgrades required outside the backbone system will be the responsibility of the individual utility. Table 6.1 Power Flow Contingencies VoltageFromBusToBusID(kV) Healy EvaCreek 1 138 Eva Creek Wilson 1 138 Healy Nenana 1 138 Nenena Ester 1 138 Ester Gold Hill 1 138 Gold Hill Wilson 1 138 Wilson Ft.WW 138 Fi.WW N.Polelnd 1 138 N.PoleInd N.PoleSub 1 138 N.Poleind Carney 1 138 Lorraine Douglas 1 230 Gold Hill 3 Winding Transformer FT WW 3 Winding Transformer Carney 3 Winding Transformer 6.1 Power Flow Contingency -Criteria The power flow criteria will include limits on voltage levels as well as branch flow levels.The power flow criteria are listed below and will be used for normal (all equipment in service)and N- 1 contingency analysis. e Voltages on the transmission system between 0.95 pu and 1.05 pu e Branch flows on the transmission system below their rating (winter or summer) 6.2 Summer Valley Results The summer valley cases (dispatches 2 and 3)exhibit overloads on Ft.Wainwright Sub -Ft. Wainwright Tap -Badger Tap 69 KV line sections due to a loss of the Ft.Wainwright -North Pole 138 kV line.The overloads are 105%of the 46 MVA summer rating of the lines.No other power flow violations occur.These overloads are outside the "backbone”system and should be eliminated by the utility. July 30,2012 Page 11 )aRy,Qusct Power SistersPESConsultingEngincera MWH Watana Transmission Study Pre -Watana 6.3 Summer Peak Results The summer peak cases have similar results for the three different generation dispatches.All three dispatches show overloads in the base cases without any contingencies.The base case overloads are the Hamilton -Ft.Wainwright 69 kV line,which overloads 105-107%of its 46 MVA summer rating.Generation dispatches 1 and 2 show low voltages at Nenana (0.93 pu)for an outage of the Eva Creek -Wilson line section.It is possible to eliminate this low voltage condition by increasing the reactive power output of the generators and SVC's at Healy,Gold Hill,and Wilson. Outages of the Wilson -Ft.Wainwright 138 kV line result in heavy overloads (120 -130%)on the Gold Hill -Aurora -Zehnder 69 kV line sections.An outage of one of the 3 winding transformers at Gold Hill or Ft.Wainwright will cause an overload on the remaining transformer. These overloads are outside the "backbone”system and should be eliminated by the utility. 6.4 Winter Peak Results The winter peak cases with generation dispatches #1 and #2 would not converge for outages of the Eva Creek -Wilson 138 kV line section.The dispatch #1 case required the Healy import to be reduced by 20 MW before the power flow would solve with the contingency.The dispatch #2 case required the Healy import to be reduced by 15 MW.The power flow analysis was completed with these new reduced Healy import cases for generation dispatches #1 and #2. All cases show low voltages at Nenana (0.93 pu)for an outage of the Eva Creek -Wilson line section.It is possible to eliminate this low voltage condition by increasing the reactive power output of the generators and SVC's at Healy,Gold Hill,and Wilson for dispatches #1 and #2. Dispatch #3 (Healy at minimum output)requires a reduction in Healy import levels of 5 MW in addition to the reactive support of the existing voltage support equipment. All three dispatches show overloads in the base cases without any contingencies.The base case overloads are the Ft.Wainwright 3 winding transformer,which overloads 101-103%of its 100 MVA summer rating.An outage of one of the 3 winding transformers at Gold Hill or Ft. Wainwright will cause an overload on the remaining transformer.An outage of the Gold Hill transformer will also overload the Hamilton -Ft.Wainwright 69 kV line section by 167%of its 66 _MVA rating.These overloads are outside the "backbone”system and should be eliminated by the utility. 7 Healy Import Limits Analysis The power flow results were combined with the stability limits and are shown in Table 6.2.Note that the power flow import limits for the winter peak cases were reduced for all generation dispatch cases from their stability limits due to low voltages at Nenana for an outage of the Eva Creek -Wilson 138 kV line section. July 30,2012 Page 12 SP Citic Bom SuterpdConsultingEnyincersmn MWH Watana Transmission Study Pre -Watana Table 6.2 Healy Stability Limits (MW),Transmission Configuration 3 Summer Valley Summer Peak _Winter Peak Case Stability Power Flow Stability Power Flow Stability Power Flow Import Export*|Import Export*|Import Export*|Import Export*|Import Export*|import Export* gl ----65 160 65 160 85 181 65 161 g2 65 106 65 106 110 150 110 150 115 157 100 142 g3 100 112 100 112 130 140 130 140 130 140 125 135 8 Conclusions This project analyzed the northern system between Anchorage and Fairbanks to determine the impact of transmission upgrades and to determine the most probable pre-Watana transmission configuration. The transmission configurations analyzed included multiple 230 kV lines from Lorraine to Douglas,multiple lines (138 kV and 230 kV)from Douglas to Healy,and upgrading and converting the lines north of Healy to 230 kV.The transmission configurations were analyzed for different load levels and different Healy generation dispatches.The three Healy generation levels were Healy generation at full output (to Include Eva Creek),HCCP offline (Healy #1 and Eva Creek at full output),and Healy #1 at minimum output.The cases were created to show the sensitivity of the Healy import limits due to different Healy generation levels. The addition of a new line and operating the existing transmission line from Douglas to Healy at 230 kV result in significant reactive support requirements.Creating a new Gold Creek substation between Stevens and Cantwell can reduce the reactive support requirement by more than 50%and also improve the stability and sectionalizing by dividing the outage line by approximately 50%of it existing length.Based on the expected Healy import levels,it is recommended that if a second line is built between Healy and Douglas that it is constructed to 230 kV but operated at 138 kV to reduce the added reactor expense. The Healy import stability limit is reduced when all generation at Healy is online and at full output.Reducing Healy generation will increase the Healy import limit.The addition of the second 138 kV line between Healy and Douglas increases the Healy import limit by a small amount when Healy generation is at full output.The Healy import limit increases by a larger amount when Healy generation is reduced.Upgrading and operating the lines from Healy north to 230 kV increase the Healy import limit to a high level,though GVEA may not be able to utilize the additional transfer level capability. The GVEA system will require system improvements in order to handle increased transfer levels evaluated in this study.These upgrades might include possible transmission line additions and / or conversions of 69 kV lines to 138 kV.These upgrades are under the purview of GVEA and are outside the focus of this study. The most probable transmission configuration for the Railbelt system for the pre -Watana time period includes the addition of a second 138 kV line from Douglas to Healy (constructed to 230 kV)along with constructing the Gold Creek substation with 30 MVAR of reactors. Additions to the Anchorage area of the transmission system include building the Lorraine 230 kV substation with transmission line interconnections to Plant 2,Teeland,Douglas (2),and Pt. Mackenzie (2).80 MVAR''s of reactors will be placed at the Lorraine substation to keep the voltage of the undersea 230 kV cable below 1.02 pu.The Anchorage area system upgrades July 30,2012 Page 13 res Powe SustentSYConsultingEngincers" aLMWH Watana Transmission Study Pre -Watana include that addition of the Fossil Creek 115 kV substation and the Raptor -Fossil Creek 115 kV transmission line.The Kenai system upgrades include the Bernice-Beluga HVDC line,new Bradley-Soldotna 115 kV line and the rebuild of the University-Dave's Creek line to 230 kV. Cllectic Powe Ss.stems=aQyConsutiiagEngincers July 30,2012 Page 14 MWH Watana Transmission Study Pre -Watana Appendix A -Detailed Reactive Support Analysis Table A.1 Detailed Reactive Support Analysis Healy-|Healy-|Lorraine-|Gold |upgrade|Healy-No GVEA Import Total SP #2-75 MW Import WP #2-125 MW import Reactive Support Requirements (MVAR) Config]Douglas |Douglas |Douglas |Creek |H-:H-]Doug Reactor Size (MVAR}Comp Reactor Size (MVAR)}Reactor Size (MVAR)Based on Summer Peak case Based on Winter Peak case ##10 #2)#2 #2)#1 #2 1138 230]W:GH]Open Gold 'Heal-Gold Gold Lorraine Douglas 3old Creel Healy |Lorraine 'Douglas 5old Cree!Healy::lorr Di MV,saakv |220Kv |230Kv [ev kv}230kV |end [OT OME cy 'MMVARI|lor Doug -,,Healy|torr Doug 4.Healv|ay "sve'rix Sve Fix SVC Fix SVC|Fix "SVC Fix SVC Fix SVC Fix SVC=3 ry =7 ; 1+Yr [3]x x Doug 48 0 -oO 145 53 {25 ¢is}need voltage support 53 0 25 67 -on)need voltage support Healy it)92 -[)le . .70 0 .0 ;=-ror .Ld 1 x x x Doug 66 o .o 190 70 i 35 -is)need voltage support 70:0:35 8 -is)°need voltage support Healy Go 120 -o .76 o .o :need voltage support In -°. need voltage support in GVEA at2)*%x x %heey iM a .mB [76 55 +S leven atwilson/GoidHn|76 9 55 8 -5 0 Wilson/Gold Hil! |76 -@ 0 d volt:tl .on d volt rtin GVEA atconeedvoltagesupportIn. need voltage support in a3[x x x oe )*ests *°Ba 103)76 |27 ©Javea at wilson/GotdHitl]©%27 0 0 8 Wilson/Gold Hitl -a1 0 =°4 -yr r - 4 x x x"x x x Doug 70 0 -27 245 81 50 .27 60 10 °27 81 0 50 87 .27 Of}60 21.10 127 -27,«0 Healy Q 1270s Q . : 7- :81 .°0 :--. °a 2 vo 5 x x x x x x xX Doug 75 :4 tu 108 81 -2 0 60 .10 is}81°00 :.27 0 Oo of,66 21 10 17 0 90 Healy 70 -27 o =DITO =26 ,-r a ---y 6 x XxX x x Doug 75 o -101 461 21 OSS -85 30 5 -85 }121 0 55 188 -8 16/90.31 S 235 -SS 46 Healy Oo 20 -i]: .107 2 «(OO reer vomrrremey [Precmewereemnnemmerre=r >ov Ff ew ro 7 x x x x x Doug 90 C 60 a 190 107.--83 i')90 -i ga QO 107 O -83.0 o a 7,90:17 8 0 an) Healy 78 -83 e)i ' -15 0 -4S i 8 x x x x x Xx Doug 75 o -1231 490 115:60 -100 }110)«65 .100 7115 O .60 184 .100 31/110 5 5S 239 .100 «31 Healy o 244 .[3]: a _,..i ,.-9 -62 Oo ;:.aa 9 x Xx x x x]xK x Doug 90 -71 3 193 go:«i:92 3 90 -88 3 9 oa -92.0 3 o;7s0 9 BB 4 3 oO Healy |78 -920.:: July 19,2012 Page 15 . + Se Hectic &- STEMS Consulting Engineers MWH Pre -Watana Watana Transmission Study Table B.1 Summer Valley -Dispatch #2,HCCP offline Appendix B -Detailed Dynamic Results dODHTy zla XIWSH Gx*xxX x xxx KMKMKKKRKK KKXLS 4 no] =i¢ TaoddNQJxxxx x MX KKx LK KK KK Kwx!EG =)> " 5 -, m APAH@APAH-IH PIOD 'S XxX xXx KK KES =I3 ver] a PAA@uosyy-yooiy enyJ xxKX KK OK KX3 enq@AesyH-yaesengS xxX MRK KXx]& AeaH@AjesH-7902 AQ2 xKM MK KMOKOKxpe AeaH@Aea-typlopBlx=xxx x xx xx KX . uw PAW@UOSIM\-yaeIDengBx«xxx x xx XX MK E eay@Ajeay-yaeseng Ixxxx le x KK OMOK KX 2 - - pw - Qa AeaH@AeaH-yaeiy engBlxxxx x xx MX KM KX o0 sejSnog@se|Snog-eureuoy8]xxx:x x x MORK MK KL KK KeKeKeLB JSNOQOse|snog-sujeuoy wo = aueuOTWseSnog-eureucy 'B] x«x«x > x MK MKwRKR KK KO KK OKOKOX= aUIeLO]ODuULal jse-auleuio] BZ)xxxx x KX KK KKK)KKK KK XKX/E KS we - 2 AeaH@Ajeap-seysnog Bxx xX x xxX RM KK RIK KK KRKR KK KLD & se(snog@Aleay-sejsnog GPxxxx Fd x MKKMKMKMKPKKMOKKMKKKMK | oO 20dUVONDNW4d-B]0dYONBIXxxxx oe MO MO KK Ke KK KK Ke KP: UOSIM@NMVW 24-UOSIM. RIXxx.x x xxKXxX KX KIX KX KK KKK XK wu zc3s KRRRR RAIRNR REE RIPE ERERRRIR A RARER EAS ages tg3¥rrdig tere sir ree ee Te eT eT t/]Y =x on c5. = ', = awo a© Awd Od Ole BeOnt Hint OtYVot AWAOo ave SIRXSaaaRRSaeaaRRsaanangssgirRrgananags = & _ fe)im t = NmoOno non MonloONnoONnONOeNONOANOEM©inf = ASRSRYRBRAGKSSRRRARSIRRSRRRS BRAS SE w E - 25 Sy 2 : 2 ° et m wn 00 N Qa, - D> oO ” N v - o fo) % YERq ad S ZES =35 aa ee ato - on a MWH Watana Transmission Study Pre -Watana Table B.2 Summer Valley -Dispatch #3,Healy #1 at Min dODHASHTODdNAesH@APPH-IIIH_PIOD PAID UOS|IYA-J82ID PAenI@ALSHBAD”engAeSH@APSH-4221) PAZAJEBH@AIEAH-IIHPIODPAIMUOS-Y9AIAY ena@ AIPaH8819eAY AeaH@ AleaH-4a21"PAQsejsnoq@se|jsnog-euleuo7}DUIELOT®sejsnog-sure0}7;BUIELOTQUUS]JSA-SUleU0]Ajea}4{@Ajea}4-sejgnogsejsnog@Ajea4-sejsnoq 30dYUONGAWW34-2}0dYONUOsYW@NWW34-UOSIM aQ'al a2.a3 a4 a5 a6 bO bi b2 b3 uO ul u2 u3 gO g3 24 Te xxXxXXXXx xX NX xX X XxX.x 253 simulations ended{potential voltage problemsbecine Healy jealy Flows(MW Gen Output :(MW) Upgrade Import Export* 18 18 7260 65 77 70 75 18 18 18 92 97 72 80 85 60 18765 70 75 9280 85 97 187260 65 77 870 75 18 18 18 87 9280 97 102 107 112 72 85 90 95 100 60 65 18 18 18 18 18 18 77 82 87 92 70 75 80 85 97 102 107 112 30 95 100 __|marginal _unstable' Case Healy at Min (g3) Consulting Engincers NR - oOle))wooOJuly19,2012 MWH Watana Transmission Study Pre -Watana Table B.4 Summer Peak -Dispatch #1,Healy Generation at Full Output dQOH Fxxxxxx xXKK MK MK KK KK KKX AIWSHQO]x**xxx XX MM KKK KKK KK KKEG . 3 TOO0N QIxXxx*xx KRM MK KK KK KK KK KGuw AeaH@AeaH-ItH PIODS KRM MRK KK KK KKmeXPS _ 3 eaq@uosyw-yaory engY KX XK RK KKKKXXK xx!S PAI@APAH-B2D PAZS xxx eK KK KK KK KLE Aear@Ajeay-yae1eaqS KKM KM MK MK MK KM OKOKtai APaH@AeaH-IIHplopBlxxxxxx= ia " eAAWuosyyjoasy eaqQExxxxxx € : vs o - a y a eAB@AIPPH FEDEMGa)XEAy 8 = ° 4 a. AeeH@AeaH-yeesD PAZ GS}xxxxx 2 seSnog@sejsnog-eureuoy 'Q] x=x:xx.xx KR MK KK KKKRKwKK x| 3 auIeOT@sejSnog-oureuo] "Ql x:x«xKKx KX KM KKK KK KK KeXLS auIeUOTWHuualysay-oureuo] BlxxxxxXxX KKK KK KK KK KKXKXPE2 AeaH@Ajeay-segnog Qlxxxxxx x MK KKK KKKRKK KKKIO : mee sejSnog@Ajeay-sejsnog 'lx xxxxx xR MRK MM KMKRRMKL 3jOgYWONDNWAUd-B10dUYONBlxxx*xx xxX KM KM KK KK MK KK4 UOSIMM@NW ad-u0sIM, Slxxxxxx XK XX MK KKMMK KKOK > _4 2 35> . a sc NOAM MMMMMINMMaMMO MMINHMAmMAMOAIMMMMMMMMM MMNaMMA A Ss528 Oo90 oo o}o© ooojoo oo oljod0 oo oo g 2os5e2 SaeS4S4Saa aS a8 I Be = o a3 s + = tlnonononoslnonanondsluononomolnoeonsononononanorn = ITH KH BORNDTANOCUOAN DIT HH SCORN DIF HAHAOGORRDHDAKDOCOHAAH La = 2 a > § oenononls Aanononaulononononlonogonomounlongnonanan i) = Epa SERN ©wnnow RSBBSIARASBRREBABSHASSRRAGRRRSSHAAASE a) = E7 353 ° a a) in | 2 . ) | Se 9 £2 8 zu v ao<= Consulting Engincers [se] =- ®oDajayJuly19,2012 MWH Watana Transmission Study Pre -Watana Table B.5 Summer Peak -Dispatch #2,HCCP Offline et] dH i AWSHQ]x mx HBocxoe ee TEoeoeee we KK KOKeeS : j ; Tc TOOdN Gj}=x xx KX slaleiiaieiloioieha | eleiaiiaioieioisisiioioietate E i " AeaHOAEsH IIH PIDJ ttxXMKKM KK KK KK KK KKKeKLE. A -; a rn) PAIMuosyyaasy engY Ulx KK KK KKKRKK xxe -BS PAIOAlLdH-yO2 eAZFS an MRK KKK KKK KK KKxxKLE 3 = i PIE Ajearj@Ajeay{-7201D ery2 Mix KK MK KKK KKK KX xoxbY ArPa@Aleay-|tHpooB]x xx«x xx - " eaq@uosyaanengQ]x xxxx xx E PAI@APAH-yaa!DAQGI]x xxx x xx 2 . : a 2 Apay@AjeaH-yae19engS|x xsyfex xx > | a [Bnog@se|Snog-eureuoy '2} x xxKOX xxxKK MK KK KK KKK KK KK KP - : - po Lievioj@sejsnog-sulenio] 2}x |xxxx MO OK XT xx KK KK KK KK KKXLS . . ; = LoT@uusl ysenn-suieuoy ZT]x xxxx KR KKK KeKe:TB]xoeeK KKOKKK KK KK KKKPE : 5 [7 "| AeoH@Ajeapy-sejsnog Flx xx «x SOM RRR XM RIAD XM XX RR KK XR RX MXXX)B seiSnog@Ajear-sejsnog I]x x xx MO XXKxxxxixTxxxxxxKK Kx Kxxx x| ONDMM 3d-2]0d YONFIx |xx Oe MORK XXXKXX KOKI xxKX KX KO KK KK KKKL| UOSTIM@MW Ad-uos, QI]x tex: xx "x KM KMKMMOM KX x MK KK KK KMKRKMMOKKRKMXK © % C 2ce3s i ae)tS 3 B8sgs SPSS HSSSSS SSeS SSeS SS SSSeHeseseeeeeeeseseeeeee ays - Cc oO 3 3t nn wo in]in Nnonmortrannnanatcan = BARR RAGRARARSIALSARSRGEITRRRAARARBHASTARABBKARSSH 2) ooRe el rr | re ee 3 ra io) 3 ba5 fo] enonon anonononounonls maoanooninonon nmonan S44 Monon Sauanam Ain = E[PBB AAN SHAG SNA AAARAAAAASHM@AM9AHSSAAANNdKnad as o = -£ wo 1 9*ce@ Oo et ta) in DoaaU2 ® o v oon yy UsoO [s) iIs [o>] -_ 0Ooiy)aJuly19,2012 Consulting Engineers MWH Watana Transmission Study Pre -Watana Table B.6 Summer Peak -Dispatch #3,Healy #1 at Min OOH&,AWSH%)xxx XR MM KM MK KK XX XX MK KX KKXKX xxxlD3 TOOdNGIxxx KM KKM KMKHMK KK KM MM MM MMRMKK KK KmKEGuv APAH@ACAH-IIIH PICOSB XR MK RK KK KKK KK KK XLS2 eAI@uUOSWV-y22.9 eZS xMM MM MM RM KKKRKKKES eAI@AjeaH-yoe-D enqS MK XR KK RKKRKKK KO LE q AeaH@Ajeay-yae.97enq MO KO Oe Oe HHMi AeaH@Aear-itHplopSixxx xxX KK RK KOK KK OX wi eaq@uosy-yaain-eng ixxx MM MMMKMMEK KKM x E ena@AjeapHeep engpb]xxx xxx xXXM KKK RX 4pas - a AeaH@Ajeoy-yaep7engSlxx:x KX RM KK KOcSpee| 9 sejSnog@seSnog-sureiay 'Qi xx.x xxXMK MKKMOMKMOKOX xX MK ROK RKKRKKKRKK KKLe me Ej auleuoT®se|Snog-sureuwo] 'Bl x«x MX MK XK MK KK MMR KM MX KR KK KO KKxfZe BUIELOTDUuaLysay-oureuo) BZ]xxx XXX XX KM KKK KX MR KK KK KK KK KXXLE2 APaH@Ajeay-seygnog Blx=xx MK MK MMOMWKMOKOK KX KM KKMKK KK KKKeKKKLD seSnoq@Aeay-seisnog |xx:x xXx KRxX KKK KX KORO KK KK KRRK KKXY| - - _ t BJOd UNONONWWW AdS10d YONBI]xx MMMM KMKRKMMK KM MK MM KM MK KKMKKP| UOSIMM@NWY 24-UOSIMN SLX XX KXKXMIKI XKKXMK XK KKMMKKMMM MK KKK KX v Seas oe. 3 s§as OO WIWM ODM DIDO MOH MMOD DMDNONMDNMNONMNAINNDNDNNONKMNNMNHODMNHMOKMDHMNMWOOLD x 6= : 5 5 4% . e an tn Ofin: 2SNnononangnon CHONOHDNOHOANOHN = (:eojnN on won apma 6 aa an WOM SBSoa AA m ed SSRRSUSRSRSSSBRRSSSAGH ARTS RASRRSSSAAARRSLERASS 3 ui - 3 cc] = 5 2 BRangHOoNOw axenouengua nls NnNononnoanon NnOoONnoON 4 none n Fr 2 BR Sagan saaasnaonaaanradd tds as eanaeeaansassardds fj £ i1 a* i Bg ° a n in i 028 | > _i [aadoH g z2 Aid ci) 5 vsxs oONoDoDwooOJuly19,2012 MWH Watana Transmission Study Pre -Watana Table B.7 Winter Peak -Dispatch #1,Healy Generation at Full Output dDOHFT]x<«*xxx Kxx xKXMKx KMKM MMM KM KKKRKK KK AIVSH QI*X* XX Paa xKxKRKR. XMM MMKXMMM KR MK KID tee 7 3 TODdN:QIxx MXKRXX xx exOMROX RMR KKKKMMK KK OwKLE . . " AeaH@Aear-iiH poo3 RK MK KKK KK KKKMKK KEE = - P= eaq@uosyy-yeep engS MRM KK KK KK KK xKeXLS eAI@APaH-21)eAyS KR XK KK KR LE ApaH@Aeay-yjeasy engS xxRM MM MK KM KMOM MK OM«fq APaH@ACOH-WHpjoo:FB xx/ xxxmilxxxxx _ . | rn " enq@uosyyyesp eryO xx "x x "x xx!x & eng@AleaH-oe19engSG xx xxx xxxx 2 - e AeaH@ Alea engS xxxxxiKOx xMM KM > [PAHO AJCA}4-493I PAZ6 x @ sefsnog@se|3nog-suieo0y '8 xx xxx x XX KM KKM MK KK KKK KD . : bye -_ eee fs) aureuo|@sefSnog-surewio] 'Qi x.xxxxxx xxx x i 2! Bo DUIRUOTOULE) yseyj-suieuio] BPxxxxxKX xxx x KX XM XX KK KK KK KKKLE . anne . g APeH@Aeey-seisnog Rlx«xxxxxx xxx x MORK KOK KK KKKMKRKMKLD se|Snog@Aeeyy-sejsnog Byx«xxxxx.x xxx x KEK KK KK KK KK x,| aJOd UVONDAWW 2d-210d UUONWK]xxxx Kxx xxx x x KK xx| UOSIMBAVW 2d-HOSI: BIxx ee. Ee xxx x MMM MM MMM MM RMOMMX > wd 2 s> a - + ts st tot mnrnmrmrmaronmanmananan os52S Sasgasgaga saa 3 SSSSSSSSSSSSESSSB 2os2 Aaa aaa Aas ot Ade ddAaededeaaa AAA AS o : s = * 2 SISSERSRARIESERARSAESRRSSARITSRSTSSARESSHSRSRRTS uv [oeee Afidad Add AnAK snehNtHH NH THIN NNN NNN NN NN 3 i - } « ie 5 2 fa) Snenonongunonls no nonens mononon Nnononan 2 SRR RRRRSBRR SBE SISLLSRSRSIBSKSHEASRESAHAN ARSETRUE i = E Ue | 54 ° a ™ wn a§5 ae o en : ses v (ee)x= + 'owe Consulling Engincers N®oDist)oaJuly19,2012 MWH Pre -Watana dH efaS _ XTWaH xeMMMKMKKXK MOM MX KK XK KR KK OLD =|é TODdN x*MMKRKKOX MRK KKK KKK KK KK KKKS iS» AeeH@Ae2H-t!H pjoo KKK KKK KKK KKKEKKXe]G= BAIMUOS|A-P2ID eA OK KK xxfSE eAI@AlesH-yOosD PAZ XX XK KX KK KK KK KePE APeaH@AjeaH-a01D eng MM MM KMKMKHKMOM MEM MM OMOX<M APaH@AEPH-I'HPODRAIMUOS|-490IDCAeAI@ALAH-221_BAYApaH@Aeay22eng aO al a2 a3 a4 a5-a6 bO bi b2 b3.u0 ul u2 u3 gO g3 24 Watana Transmission Study Table B.8 Winter Peak -Dispatch #2,HCCP Offline uw" Exa3=aova sejsnogdsej8nog-suleo} xKK KM KKOK x RKKXMK MK MM KKKMMK KLE5 aule10871@se|sn0g -sulesoy MMM MM KOOOK HOMOMROKRKK KK KOLS DUIRLIOTDULI | JSOAA-OUILUIOT xxxxX KKK MX KKK KKK KK KK KKXLE " : - . Lo . aPe] AeaHi@ AjeaH-se\snog x RKKRKMKMKOK MOMMK KKRKKK KK KKKexKLE S 73 Do) sesnoq@AjeaH-sejsnog x.xKKKXKOK xKX KKKMMK KOK KKKMKK KPT io] . » : QO. 30d UONOMMW 335-2100 YON KK XK KX x Km aI KK KK KK KL LOSIM@ MMW _34-UOSIM, MORMK MK Kw OILoc eKOKKKKROK KKOKKOx , 9 223s : . 3 © SA9DAnATODTDHOAMRASAWAOBADAAMAAADAARAAARAGAPOADAHABARAAHRAARAA a ogss ARAARERFARRKRAGRFAARRESRAFRIESLSSRRARISRASRGESSSSS SSS <= = . c ° 3 s * = Elna nnweanin nn NWA KIRNnARNOAR ARN BTA OMINARNONR FARA ONO = HANNO MSeTIA NN MMStSl NN AMtST HNO ONKROLA NN MME THN NOKOR KR DOTA uv os Oe ee ee eeen)eea ee) oe i oe eeir 2 3 Fy - 2 a " 5 en ow enononaoana eanonononognonis > nmonon nonon momnanBaaSaaiagnk an nono nh 6S934RA bo 3 EN SSAA EN AAHaA ESN HAAASRAAAAAA ARASH AHSeaanrgdsasdals gv = E 3S*£9 o ct a) r¥,) : oba i go | N Q a ™ 8 3s a 3 fES No - >=) "> MWH Watana Transmission StudyPre-Watana Table B.9 Winter Peak -Dispatch #3,Healy #1 at Min dJDHXAWSHTODdNAPOHOAPOH-IHPODPAIDUOSYW-YO2IDCAZeAI@AEoH-aa1)PAAAjeaH@Ajeay]-yee1)eAgAeeH@AoH-ItHPODPAIDUOSWY\-YBBID-BAZBAI@AEaH-YOaIDCZAeaH@Aeay-yaeDeAsejSnoa@sefsnog-eures0yaureuo7@se|8nog-eurev0}7DUICLOTOHULaLISap-uUIELIO]AeaH@AeaH-seisnoqseisnog@AjeeH-sejsnoq 10dYHONDMWW3s-21dYUN. UOSIM@MWW 3d-LOSIIM, aO_al_a2_a3 a4 aS a6'bO bi b2 b3 uO ul u2 u3 20 g3 B4 xxXxXX x X X X xXx»x x X XX |X E524 simulations ended|potential voltage problems1 Healy Output (mWw} Upgrade jealy Flows(MW_=Gen Case # Import Export* 18 18 18 8575 80 85 9 90 95 100 105 0 95 18 18 18 18 8575 9080 85 95 100 105 90 95 110100 75 18 18 85 9080 85 18 18 95 100 105 110 90 95 100 105 18115 120 125115 120 125 130 135 130 145 150 13 140 75 18 18 18 18 18 85 9080 85 95 100 105 110 115 30 95 100 105 120 125 130 135 110 120 125 130 140 45135 140 145 150 155 160150 155 .|marginal 165 unstable Case Healy at Min (g3) ystems we, ower Consultiny Engincers isp]No[=>]iy}oOJuly19,2012 wlMWH Watana Transmission Study Pre -Watana Appendix C -Detailed Power Flow Results Table C.1 Power Flow Results -Summer Valley Case Trans |Healy Flows (MW)Healy Outage *Volt Overload -Volt Rating % Config}Import Export*Gen [From Bus ToBus ID (kV)|From Bus To Bus ID (kV)(MVA)Rating HCCP Ft.WW Sub FTWP Ta 1 69 46 105 offline (e2)]3 65 106 Ft WW N.Pole 2 138 |ct wetap Badger Tap 1 69 46 105 Healy at 'Ft.WWSub FIWPTap 1 69 46 105Min(e3)3 100 112 Ft.WW N.Pole 1,138 |e)wetap BadgerTap 1 69 46 '105 Table C.2 Power Flow Results --Summer Peak Trans.|Healy Flows "Healy Outage "Volt Overload Volt Rating %Case Config |Import Export*Gen |FromBus ToBus ID (kV)|FromBus ToBus ID (kV)(MVA)Rating _base case Hamilton FIWW 1 69 46 105 EvaCreek Wilson 1 138 Nenana bus voltage =0.9225 pu Gold Hill XFMR 1 138/69 112 143 Wilson Ft WW 1 138 |GoldHill Aurora 1.69 68 129 Healy Aurora Zehnder 1 69 68 118 full 3 5 165 103 FTWW XFMR 1 138/69 100 101 output N.PolelInd Carney 1 138 |HwyPark Dawson 1 69 57 103 (e1)FTWWSub FTWPTap 1 69 66 =109 FT.WW XFMR 1 138/69 Gold Hill XFMR 1 138/69 112 106 FTWW XFMR 1 138/69 100 138 Gold Hill XFMR 1 138/69]Hamilton FrWW 1 69 46 105 :Low 69 kV voltages between 0.95 and 0.946 base case Hamilton FTWW 1 69 46 105 EvaCreek Wilson 1°138 ;Nenana bus voitage =0.9322 pu . Gold Hill XEMR 1 138/69 110 129 Wilson Ft.WW 1 138 |GoldHill Aurora 1 69 68 117HCCPAuroraZehnder16968107offline30060HwyParkDawson16957101(g2)N.PoleInd Carney 1 138 FTWW Sub ETWPTap 1 69 66 104 FT.WW XFMR 1 138/69 Gold Hill XFMR 1 138/69 112 105 .FIWW XFMR 1 138/69 100 137GoldHIIIXFMR-1 138/65 7 inder Hamilton 1 69 68 103 -_base case Hamilton FTWW 1 69 46 107 HCCP,Wilson FtLWW 1.138 Gold Hill XFMR 1 138/69 112 121Healy,Gold Hill Aurora 1 69 68 125 and Eva 3 130 140 48 N.Poleind Carney 1 138 |HwyPark Dawson 1 =69 57 103CreekFT.WW XFMR 1 138/69 Gold Hill XEMR 1 138/69 112 103 offline :FTWW XFMR 1 138/69 100 135 (g3)Gold Hill XFMR 1 138/69]Hamilton FtWw 1 69 46 105 Low 69 kV voltages between 0.95 and 0.946 July 19,2012 Page 24 »,Qe Power S ystemsConsultingEngineers MWH Watana Transmission Study Pre -Watana Table C.3 Power Flow Results -Winter Peak Trans.|Healy Flows Healy Outage Volt Overload Volt Rating %Case Config {Import Export*Gen From Bus -ToBus ID (kV)|From Bus ToBus ID (kV)(MVA Rating base case FIWW XFMR 1 138/69 100 103 EvaCreek Wilson 1 138 Nenana bus voltage =0.9126 pu Healy Nenana 1 138 |Hamilton FtWW 1 69 66 106 Nenana Ester 1 138 |Hamilton FtWW 1 69 66 106 Healy Ester Gold Hill 1 138 ]Hamilton FrWW 1 69 66 105 full 3 65 161 104 Wilson Ft.WW 1 138 | GoldHiIIXFMR 1 138/69 112 139 output N.PoleInd Carney 1 138 CarneyXFMR =1 (138/69 30 =.138(21)Hwy Park Dawson 1 69 57 119 138/6]Gold HillXFMR 1 138/69 112 131FT.WW XFMR 1 9 Low 69 kV voltages between 0.95 and 0.86 .Hamilton FtWW 1 69 66 168GoldHillXFMR1138/69 Low 69 kV voltages between 0.95 and 0.92 base case .FIWW XFMR 1 138/69 100 101 EvaCreek Wilson 1 138 Nenana bus voltage =0.9409 pu Healy Nenana 1 138 Hamilton FeWW 1 69 66 105 /Low 138 kV voltage at Eva Creek =0.9376 Nenana Ester 1 138 |Hamilton FtWW 1 69 66 105 Ester Gold Hill 2 138 |Hamilton Ftww 1 69 66 104 HccPe Gold Hill Wilson 1 138 [Hamilton FtWW 1.69 66 102 offline 3 100 142 50 Wilson Ft..WWwW 1 138 Gold HillXFMR 1 138/69 112 121 (g2)Hwy Park Dawson 1 69 57.118 N.Polelnd Carney 1 138 Carney XFMR 1 138/69 30 140 Low 69 kVvoltages between 0.95 and 0.94 138/6}Gold HiIIXFMR 1 138/69 112 127 93 Low 69 kV voltages between 0.95 and 0.89 Hamilton FLWW 1 69 66 167 Low 69kV voltages between 0.95 and 0.92 base case FTWW XFMR 1 138/69 100 101 Healy EvaCreek 133 Nenana bus voltage =0.9450 pu FT.WW XFMR 1 Gold Hill XFMR 1 138/69 1 EvaCreek Wilson 1 138 Nenana bus voltage =0.9398 pu Healy Nenana 1 138 Hamilton FtWW 1 69 66 105Low138kVvoltageatEvaCreek=0.9376 Nenana Ester 1 138 |Hamilton Fr WW 1 69 66 105HCP,Ester Gold Hill 1 138 [Hamilton FtWW 1 69 66 104Healy,GoldHill Wilson 1 138 [Hamilton FLWW 1 69 66 103andEva}125 135 18 Wilson =Ft.WW 138 |Gold HiIIXFMR 1 138/69 112 114CreekN.Pole SubN.PoleInd 1 138 [Hamilton FLWW 4 69 66 101ea)Hwy Park Dawson 1 69 57 119 N.Poleind Carney 1 138 Carney XFMR 1 138/69 30 138 Low 69 kV voltages between 0.95 and 0.94 138/6]GoldHillIXFMR 1 138/69 112 125 9 Low 69kV voltages between 0.95 and 0,89 Hamilton FtLWW 1 69 66 167 Low 69 kV voltages between 0.95 and 0.92 FT.WW XFMR 1 Gold Hill XFMR 1 138/69 July 19,2012 Page 25 MWH Watana Transmission Study Pre -Watana Appendix D -Transmission Configuration Single Line Drawings Table D.1 -Transmission Configuration #0 July 19,2012 Page 26 %,Crete Pewee Systenso2ConsultingEngineers LLMWH Watana Transmission Study Pre -Watana Table D.2 -Transmission Configuration #1 Hi * .'I:ie]vt .ieee '*+t "7 ape .care :: ts ,in :o ai __tH "[é3a74.7 - a.os Le rv ' 4 on -L July 19,2012 Page 27 MWH Watana Transmission Study Pre -Watana Table D.3 -Transmission Configuration #3 ae - ==i - .. x Le £aren =:L |sn.+4 i itt.io,catia!.'wet ne burst it ="=r xe --_I July 19,2012 ;Page 28 »,Electric Powe SystemsConsultingEngineers MWH Watana Transmission Study Pre -Watana Table D.4 -Transmission Configuration #5 ty Consulting Engineers fap)NoOlo»)is]aJuly19,2012 WATANA HYDRO TRANSMISSION CORRIDOR REPORT November 8,2011 Prepared for: MWH Americas Prepared by: David Burlingame,P.E. Delbert LaRue,P.E. Clectric Power Systems4)nc, »»Consulting EngineersSYSTEMSA.Ja TABLE OF CONTENTS 1,Executive SUIMIMALY.....cssccccssssesssssrsncsccccerosssersscnceersestseseacacusenscsnenssecncscoasenacesuessssensesnsecenses 1 2.Introduction ANd PUIPOSe .......ssssccccecssesscccrrercesscsscsessscnessssstaccesssnasssccsenessenscesconassnnsesueerse 4 3.-_LiM@ ROURING......ccscccssssrccensccsssesscsenenseconarsnssccceccessssvenseuscsencconeseeseevsvoscussoasnsencucasuonsacsaseucoes 4 3.1 Evaluative Criteria .....ssccssssseccssscssscsssssssscsssssssssssssecsorscsestsceeesessesssenenaseacneacsecseeetees 4 3.2 Intangible Criteria.......cssssssccsssscceccscssrcensscoecsessssseersssusussossvecserseuesenceserscuseneuroessesesrsves 5 3.3 Tangible Criteria .......ssccssscsessscesscscscscssecsecesonsscccasssncccseesssssceesnsecanunseusesecucusssconsensesaaee 5 3.4 Routing Alternatives.........ccccccscsscesssesssecesscesnesvecsnnsaconanseansonseesoccasencerscransearenssssenseseoes 6 3.5 Perinitting ...scccssssssssssscnsscarccssessecssceessveccnssesssseesesaescssecscseauwecssenescenoeessssoscoasoussosssosssed 6 3.6 Land Classification/OWnership ......sscsssssssccsssscersscceseessscscenecssosscnsacssscseccsecesesssessseases 8 3.7 Limitations ......:ssscssssssssscesssesessscvessessscsoconceesvenstevecneccecrsceswasssvessssvecssscosescosensvesssvens 10 4.Technical Considerations .........sssssssscsssssescsssssnenssssevessvscsccesssceeserscscnesenecssssccsesecoessvsssoesve 10 4.1 Typical Design Criteria ........cccssescerersvscsssecscssscssvssonssccneassssucasovousensussceeoacsseassrensacena 10 4.2 Typical Structure Types ......ssscsesscsssrsscesesoccssssscnsessesseessscuscnensecosonassanesesssensoosssesseras 10 4.3 Required Transmission System Additions sesssseessssesssssvssrsseessssssessessseeseecectssessesesssees 10 5.Transmission Cost Estimates .....scccsccsssssscccerscesecscssesscsoscsonsccesseceuacosusnensesenusessnevsssssesevaeess il GB.CONCIUSION .......-sesessssssesereesensescstscscssessonscnsacscssacoresnsescasassnssesesaveneuensnanseesssnenssaessnneseneets +12 APPENDIX A--Corridor Maps B-Construction Cost Estimates Breakdown C-Cost Estimate Summary &bon ee ust pa Page ii A Qy Consulting Engineers °. *-SYSTEMS - MWH -Watana Transmission Corridor Report 1.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Electric Power Systems,Inc.(EPS)was contracted to develop a line corridor report that would identify possible line routings from the Watana Hydroelectric project to interconnection with the Railbelt electrical grid.The Railbelt electrical grid is currently a single-circuit transmission system with limited transfer capacity and single-contingency reliability.The Railbelt grid has expansion plans as defined in the 2010 Railbelt Integrated Resource Plan to increase the reliability and transfer capacity between major load and generation load centers. The Watana Hydroelectric Project can interconnect with the Railbelt grid in three different locations along separate line routings.The selection of the Watana line routing impacts the construction of the Railbelt infrastructure between the Anchorage and Fairbanks areas. Although this infrastructure is not part of the Watana project,the consideration of the interconnection of the Watana project into the Railbelt can influence decisions in the development of the Railbelt transmission system. Preliminary studies indicate that to transmit a peak generation capability of 600 MW from the Watana project,three 230 kV transmission lines will be required from the Watana project to the Railbelt interconnected system.The Watana project will provide power to the Fairbanks area north of Watana and to the Anchorage/Mat-Su/Kenai areas south of the project.For purposes of this routing report,it is assumed 200 MW of capacity will be supplied north and 400 MW will be shipped south from the project.A line optimization study to further define the interconnection requirements of the Watana project is not part of this report. Three general alignments,both sides of the Susitna River to the west and a northern route to Cantwell,were provided as starting points for our report.Possible access road alignments were also provided.Road access is very important to construction of a transmission line and therefore our corridors attempted to follow the access road where reasonable.Roads require a. continuous linear corridor that fits with the terrain.Transmission lines have the ability to step- over some terrain features and are not as restricted.However,transmission lines are vulnerable to climatic conditions and higher elevations produce more severe loadings.The corridors noted are a compilation of all these considerations. One corridor is located on the south side of the Susitna River and would terminate at the proposed Gold Creek Substation (Susitna South Corridor).A second corridor is located on the north side of the river and would terminate at the proposed Chulitna Substation (Susitna North Corridor).The third corridor runs north from the dam site to the Denali Highway,then along the Denali Highway to the existing Cantwell Substation (Denali Corridor).The three potential transmission line corridors are shown on the Overview Map,Figure 1 on the next page.Detail corridor maps can be found in Appendix A. Connection of the Watana Hydro Facility to the existing Railbelt electrical grid will be highly influenced by decisions of necessary changes to the existing grid.Even though these changes are not part of this report,selection of the final Watana transmission corridor will be impacted. Page 1 MWH -Watana Transmission Corridor Report All of the tangible criteria are included in Table 2 and offer the following observations.Three circuits in Susitna North Corridor is the least cost to the Watana project if the road is nearby. Susitna South is slightly higher for the Road Nearby case because the road routing selected for the south only coincides 50%with the transmission routing.Susitna South is slightly less for the No Road case because of the shorter length.The Denali Corridor is considerably longer and thereby carries the highest single corridor cost.The combination of Susitna and Denali Corridors (Alternatives 4 &5)reflect the miles of construction and fall between Alternatives 1,2 &3.At this point all three corridors are feasible and should be included in the PAD due to alternative line studies that will be required during the permitting process. The impact of winter construction generally increases the estimated cost by about 16%and road access varies from about a 4%to 21%increase. Acquisition of a permanent right-of-way will require significant land negotiations and at least some public participation.This process is best worked when there are multiple corridors. Therefore,it seems reasonable to maintain at least one corridor west (Susitna North or South) along with the Denali corridor at this level of review. hep:Ry,ClecticPrwerSystems Page 2 MWH --Watana Transmission Corridor Report WATANA OVERVIEW MAP vier a in ye 'Sry teal bias asee Denali aees Susitna North ne«s Susitna South Anchorage -Fairbanks Intertie Road Altematives aes Hurricane (West) emme Seattle Creek (North) =--South Contours -100f Proposed Transmission Line Corrido 0 25 5 10 15 2 a ee Niles FIGURE 1-OVERVIEW MAP Page 3 MWH Watana Transmission Corridor Report 2.INTRODUCTION AND PURPOSE The purpose of this report is to develop sufficient project definition to file a Pre-Application Document (PAD)with the Federal Energy Regulatory Authority (FERC)for the Watana Hydroelectric Project (Project).The assessment will focus on identification of transmission corridors,together with enough preliminary design information so that necessary environmental studies can be scoped following the PAD publication.The Project,as defined by FERC,extends only to the connections with the existing Anchorage-Fairbanks Intertie transmission system in the vicinity of Gold Creek and Cantwell.This assessment assumes that power will be delivered to the vicinity of Gold Creek and/or to Cantwell. At this level of review,one mile wide corridors have been identified using topographical maps and judgment of reasonable routings that could be constructed to connect the Watana Dam site with the Railbelt transmission system.Final alignments will be part of the design phase. It is anticipated that three transmission lines (circuits)will be needed with two circuits for loads south and one circuit north.These circuits could be constructed in one corridor or in combination with a second corridor.The three possible corridors are identified as Susitna North or South and Denali. Two sets of cost estimates were developed as part of the assessment effort.One set assumes that a road is constructed in the vicinity of the transmission corridor and available for use by the transmission line construction contractor.The second set assumes no road is constructed. 3.LINE ROUTING Three,one-mile wide corridors have been identified in which the new transmission lines could be constructed to connect the Watana Dam site with the Railbelt transmission system.Table 1 summarizes the five alternatives that are considered.Development of corridors and comparisons requires the application of consistent criteria.Following is an explanation of the criteria used for routing and comparison. 3.1 Evaluative Criteria Evaluative criteria describe the differences between routes and the level of suitability to meet the project purpose and needs.These criteria are not used to eliminate routes,but are used in development of the routes.The following describes the evaluative criteria,and how it applies to this report. e Adjacent to an Access Road -This criterion is significant to the construction cost of the line and routings are as close as practical to the road. e Avoid Land Use Conflicts -This criterion is used to exclude areas that could provoke major conflicts in land use (i.e.,airports,dedicated recreation areas,and densely populated areas). Clectic E ower Sistems Page 4> re ine. Consulting Engineers MWH -Watana Transmission Corridor Report e Avoid Major Terrain Obstacles -This criterion is used to exclude areas that could cause significant construction and/or major difficulty in construction or maintenance (i.e., large rivers,mountains,high value wetlands,ponds,and lakes). e Minimize Climatological Conditions -Alaskan climatological conditions are highly influenced by elevation and the higher elevations produce more severe conditions such as;snow accretion,icing,and wind.Asa result,routes are selected that primarily avoids higher elevations.Maximum corridor elevations are approximately;North =3,400', South =2,400'and Denali =3,800'.As a comparison,the Anchorage/Fairbanks Intertie in this area reaches about 3,000'elevation and has had a good performance record. e Minimize Route Distance -This criterion is used to minimize the route distance and decrease the total cost of the project. e Minimize Environmental Impacts -This criterion is complex with many attributes.For the level of this report,the avoidance of obvious wetlands is the only criterion used. 3.2 Intangible Criteria Evaluation of intangible criteria such as:visual impacts,public safety,existing facilities, construction impacts and land use are subjective and primarily deal with impacts to the public. These criteria require a reasonably detailed design before evaluation and are beyond the scope of this report 3.3 Tangible Criteria . The tangible criteria used in this report for route comparison are:construction cost, engineering,management costs,permitting,contingency,and summer or winter construction. The following describes the tangibles criteria and how they are applied in this report. ¢Construction Costs -This criterion estimates the cost of the construction based on conceptual towers and typical line costs expected in the area.Access via a road is the single greatest impact to construction cost.Without an access road,line construction requires all-terrain equipment and significant helicopter costs.Construction cost estimates for both road and no road conditions are included in this report. e Engineering,Management Costs -This criterion estimates the cost of design,and project management as a percentage of construction cost. e Permitting -This criterion estimates the cost of acquiring land use and environmental permits from the regulatory agencies.It does not include any protracted public involvement process.This effort is highly variable and for this report has been included as a percentage of construction costs. ¢Contingency Cost -This criterion provides a buffer for this level of report. Page 5 MWH -Watana Transmission Corridor Report e Summer or Winter Construction Costs -It is anticipated that some agency stipulations will require that at least portions of the construction will be required to be completed in the winter when ground conditions reduce impacts. 3.4 Routing Alternatives Table 1 is a tabulation of Route Miles (length of the corridor)and Circuit Miles (total miles of circuits within the corridor). TABLE 1-aT ERATIVE SUMMARIESfeel,ete Tg paws eh Peet dE tata ne ettbnk”fi or PTO 0 a Mth 4 kt Gap he or _13 Circuits Watana to Chulitna Susitna North Substation via Susitna North Corridor 37 111 3 Circuits Watana to Gold Creek Susitna South Substation via Susitna South Corridor 35 105 3 Circuits Watana to CantwellDenaliSubstationviaDenaliCorridor 62 186 2 Circuits Watana to Chulitna Susitna North and Substation via Susitna North Corridor;99 1361CircuitWatanatoCantwellDi ....enali Substation via Denali Corridor 2 Circuits Watana to Gold Creek .;tna S idor;Susitna South and Substation via Susitna South Corridor 97 132Denali1CircuitWatanatoCantwell Substation via Denali Corridor 3.5 Permitting Agency permits can be a significant part of acquiring permission to construct a new transmission line.Table 2 presents a list of potential permits for this transmission line. Page 6 MWH -Watana Transmission Corridor Report 3i}Agency Name sae |.Type.cofPermit/ApprovalFederal Agencies TABLE 2 -POTENTIAL-PERMITS AND APPROVALS U.S.Army Corps of Engineers (COE) Section 404 Permit A Section 404 permitis required for authorization ofwetlandfills. State Agencies Alaska Department of Environmental Conservation (ADEC) Certificate of Reasonable Assurance (401 Certificate) ADEC must issue a 401 Certificate to accompany any federal permit issued under the Federal Clean Water Act.For example,a COE Section 404 permit would trigger the need fora state certificate. Alaska Department of Natural Resources Fish Habitat Permit A General Waterway/Waterbody Application must be submitted if heavy equipment usage or construction activities disturb the natural flow or (AS Title 41.05.870)bed of any stream,river,or lake.These permits also(ADNR);.stipulate how stream water withdrawals may be conducted. ADNR,Division of Mining and Water Management ADNR,Division of Temporary Water This permit is required if water withdrawals will .occur during construction.The permit lasts for theLandUsePermitlengthofatemporaryproject. ADNR,Division of Land ADNR,State Historic Preservation Office (SHPO) Land Use Permit A land use permit is required for use of state lands along the proposed ROW. Right of Way (ROW) Permit A ROW is required for construction of transmission lines or other improvements that cross state lands. Alaska Department of Transportation and Public Facilities (ADOT&PF) Cultural Resource Concurrence Section 106 Review For any federally permitted,licensed,or funded project,the SHPO must concur that cultural resources would not be adversely impacted,or that proper methods would be used to minimize or mitigate impacts that would take place. National Parks Service (NPS)Utility Permit on Required before construction on ADOT&PF managed state lands or for structures crossing ADOT&PFStateROWROWS. Section 6(F)- approval to use lands Alaska Railroad Corp |purchased by the Nancy Lake State Recreation Area (ARRC)Land Water Conservation Fund. Crossing Permit Required before construction on ARRC property. The following section briefly describes federal and state agency jurisdiction and their permit requirements, Page 7 MW4H -Watana Transmission Corridor Report 3.6 COE -The Army Corps of Engineers (COE)regulates impacts to wetlands.The COE enforces Section 404 of the Clean Water Act by issuing individual or nationwide permits for wetlands impacts. ADEC-The Alaska Department of Environmental Conservation (ADEC),in conjunction with the COE 404 permitting,will analyze projects for impacts to water quality and recommend mitigation measures to prevent water pollution.ADEC will issue a Certificate of Assurance in accordance with Section 401 of the Clean Water Act. ADNR -The Alaska Department of Natural Resources (ADNR)regulates temporary withdrawals of water from state-owned sources and issues a water use permit.ADNR coordinates this permit application with all state agencies. The ADNR Division of Mining,Land and Water also issues right-of-way permits for crossing state lands.The exception is when a project crosses a state highway.Ifa state highway is crossed,the Department of Transportation &Public Facilities (DOT&PF) regulates the crossing. The State Historic Preservation Office (SHPO)is a division of ADNR and it regulates impacts to historic,cultural,and archeological resources.According to the 1966 Historic Preservation Act,all projects must be submitted to the SHPO for their analysis and approval. ADNR regulates specific rivers,lakes,and streams or parts of them that are important for the spawning,rearing,or migration of anadromous fish.According to Alaska Statute 16.05.870,ADF&G must issue a permit for any activity occurring in habitat important to anadromous fish. ADOTE&PF-The ADOT&PF regulates state-owned roads.A new transmission line along or crossing a state-owned road would require a utility permit from ADOT&PF. ARRC-If a route uses the Alaska Railroad Corporation (ARRC)corridor or crosses the Alaska Railroad,a Right of Way Permit will be required. Land Classification/Ownership Page 8 MWH -Watana Transmission Corridor Report The following map generally shows the land status in the area of the corridors. FIGURE 2-LAND STATUS WATANA OVERVIEW MAP WITH LAND STATUS ae Cantwellpes "+=Denali Ee]suwaFederalBLM «+=Susitna North Eamead SUVA Native --- Susitna South [_]Suwa Private Anchorage -Fairbanks Intertie EEE SUWA State -SUWA State and Native Road Alternatives Hurricane (West) Seattle Creek (North) South 0255 0 15 2 QeeeMiles Page 9 MWH --Watana Transmission Corridor Report 3.7 Limitations The transmission corridors identified in this report are consistent with a reconnaissance effort using office resources.To the extent practical,corridors were selected that avoided higher terrain,wetlands and steep slopes and were adjacent to proposed access roads.Any of the corridors will cross various landowners including the State,BLM,and Native.No environmental issues were considered except to try and avoid probable and obvious wetlands. In recent years,permitting and Right-of-Way procurement has become a significant cost of an Alaskan transmission line.Agency and Public concerns,along with the amount of time to complete this effort,can only be determined during the process.For this report,the costs for these items are lumped into a general percentage adder to the construction cost estimate. Once the project is better defined,these portions of the costs should be revisited., 4.TECHNICAL CONSIDERATIONS 4.1 Typical Design Criteria For the purpose of this assessment typical design parameters used to construct transmission lines in mountainous terrain are assumed.Climatological conditions are expected to be similar to the existing Anchorage/Fairbanks Intertie in this area which has experienced few issues. 4.2 Typical Structure Types Previous power flow studies have identified the need to use twin bundled 954 kcmil conductors on all transmission lines to achieve satisfactory electrical performance.A single overhead fiber optic ground wire (OPGW)and a single overhead ground wire (OHGW)are also assumed to be attached to each structure.Typical transmission line tangent structures used in Alaska that would be suitable to support three twin bundles of 954 kcmil conductor and two ground wires are the steel H-frame structure and the steel X-tower.For this report,the cost of constructing with either structure type is considered the same and an H-frame construction is selected. 4.3 Required Transmission System Additions EPS previously completed a high-level screening study to determine what modifications and additions must be made to the Railbelt utility system to accommodate the construction of either the 420 MW or 600 MW Watana Hydroelectric Project.The Study indicated that numerous transmission system additions are required to support the proposed generation.The additions relevant to the PAD are listed to below: e Construct either the Gold Creek or Chulitna 230 kV Substation along the existing Anchorage-Fairbanks Intertie route. e Construct three new 230 kV transmission lines between either Gold Creek or Chulitna Substations and the Watana Hydroelectric site and a new 230 kV line between either Gold Creek or Chulitna Substation and Cantwell Substation;or in the alternative, construct two new transmission lines between either Gold Creek or Chulitna Substation Page 10 MWH -Watana Transmission Corridor Report and the Watana site and a third transmission line between the Cantwell Substation and the Watana site. 5.TRANSMISSION COST ESTIMATES The following cost estimates are primarily for construction of the transmission line with percentage multipliers for other related costs.Previously constructed Alaskan transmission lines actual!costs along with our judgment are the basis of these estimates.Estimates are in 2011 dollars with the following assumptions: e Acontingency of 20%is assumed. e Owner,engineering,and permitting are estimated as a %of construction cost. e Agencies may require the line be constructed in the winter rather than the more favorable summer;this is estimated as a %adder. Two scenarios for preparing cost estimates have been assumed.Scenario 1 assumes an all- weather road is constructed nearby and can be used to access the transmission corridor for construction.Scenario 2 assumes a road is not constructed and construction access is via all- terrain equipment and helicopters.Table 2 compares the cost of these two scenarios for the five alternatives described in Table 1.Cost estimates were prepared using a series of spreadsheets,which can be found in Appendix B and C. Page 11 MWH -Watana Transmission Corridor Report Low :Low High.'Alternative |-___Description ($1,000)|($1,000)|($1,000)|($1,000) 1 3 Circuits Susitna North 374 miles |$147,174 |$171,703 |$178,518 |$208,271 2 3 Circuits Susitna South 35+miles |$163,856 |$190,114 |$170,021 |$198,357 3 3 Circuits Denali Corridor 62+miles |$246,484 |$287,565 |$298,946 |$348,771 2 Circuits Susitna North 37+miles and 1 circuit Denali Corridor62+miles 9196,692 |229,474 |$238,569 |$278,330 2 Circuits Susitna South 35£miles and 1 circuit Denali Corridor 62+miles $208,240 |$242,220 |$232,150 |$270,842 *All costs include a 20%reduction for construction of a second or third circuit within the same corridor. 6.CONCLUSION Connection of the Watana Hydro Facility to the existing Railbelt electrical grid will be highly influenced by decisions of necessary changes to the existing grid.Even though these changes are not part of this report,selection of the final Watana transmission corridor will be impacted. All of the tangible criteria are included in Table 2 above and offer the following observations. Three circuits in Susitna North Corridor is the least cost if the road is nearby.Susitna South is slightly higher for the Road Nearby case because the road routing selected for the south only coincides 50%with the transmission routing.Susitna South is slightly less for the No Road case because of the shorter length.The Denali Corridor is considerably longer and thereby carries the highest single corridor cost.The combination of Susitna and Denali Corridors (Alternatives 4&5)reflect the miles of construction and fall between Alternatives 1,2 &3. The impact of winter construction generally increases the estimated cost by about 16%and road access varies from about a 4%to 21%increase. Acquisition of a permanent right-of-way will require significant land negotiations and at least some public participation.This process is best worked when there are multiple corridors. Therefore,it seems reasonable to maintain at least one corridor west (Susitna North or South) along with the Denali corridor at this level of review. »Reece Pover S ystems Page 12ine. Consulting Engineers APPENDIX A -CORRIDOR MAPS SUSITNA NORTH AND SUSITNA SOUTH CORRIDORS a Z, Proposed TiLeveeSusitna North arene Susiina South Lpse\Road Alternatives A by Contours-aw {f NEF "' COST ESTIMATE SUMMARY Susitna South 35+miles with no Road AEE St ea . Foundations ea $6.1 $25.9 $32.1 $12,810 Conductor mi erkt $105.0 $205.3 |$310.3 $10,861 Other*mi $20.3 $79.0 $99.3 $3,673 Subtotal $43,595 Mob/Demob @10%$4,360 Engineering,Management,Permitting @15%Subtotal $6,539 Estimated Construction Cost $54,494 Contingency @20%Total $10,899 Estimated Summer Construction Cost .$65,393 Winter Construction Cost adder @ 25%of Subtotal $10,899 Estimated Winter Construction Cost . $76,291 *Includes:OH ground and fiber,ground,dampers,aerial balls,bird diverters,signs,clearing COST ESTIMATE SUMMARY Denali 62+miles No Road ial}Labor&'Matarco'1-($4000)1 '8°($4,000)*2 |LdStructures327ea$473 $39.2 $86.5 |$28,318 Foundations 705 ea S6.1 $25.9 $32.1 |$22,591 Conductor 62 crktmi $105.0 |$205.3 $310.3 |$19,239 Other*62 erktmi $21.4 $83.5 $104.9 $6,506 Subtotal .$76,653 Mob/Demob @10%57,665 Engineering,Management,Permitting @15%Subtotal $11,498 Estimated Construction Cost $95,816 Contingency @20%Total $19,163 Estimated Summer Construction Cost .$114,979 Winter Construction Cost adder @ 25%of Subtotal $19,163 Estimated Winter Construction Cost $134,143 *Includes:OH ground and fiber,ground,dampers,aerial balls,bird diverters,signs,clearing aon ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY ;AEA11-022SUSITNA-WATANA HYDRO WORK IN PROGRESS Clean,reliable energy for the next 100 years. Appendix B9 Opinion of Probable Construction Cost Susitna-Watana Hydroelectric Project Alaska Energy Authority FERC Project No.14241 July 2014 JULYWATANAPROGRAMCOST2014 FERC LICENCING $205,551,375 OWNER COST ADMIN &LEGAL S 184,664,354 INITIAL CAMP &ACCESS inc in Licensing cost ENGINEERING DESIGN FOR LIC S 21,380,220 ENGINEERING FINAL DESIGN S 184,664,354 ENGINEERING DURING CONSTRUCTION S$92,385,641 CONSTRUCTION MANAGEMENT $153,869,141 ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING DURING CONSTRUCTION S 57,420,242 GEOTECHNICAL INVESTIGATION S 28,870,513 LOGISTICS FOR SI 5 8,554,226 QUALITY CONTROL &INSPECTION S 92,385,641 CONSTRUCTION COST (JULY 2014 Main Civil Contract only)S VESTS WOES ENVIRONMENTAL MITIGATION MEASURES S 307,738,281 Fisheries $138,482,227 Wildlife $46,160,742 Recreation Ss 30,773,828 Cultural resources,water quality,aesthetics &wetlands S 61,547,656 Erosion Control S 30,773,828 LAND &LAND RIGHTS 45,000 Acres S 100,000,000 PERMITS AND FEES TBD PERMANENT ACCESS ROAD CONTRACT S 192,031,833 RAILHEAD IMPROVEMENTS S 34,068,783 TRANSMISSION LINES S 165,743,940 AIRPORT CONSTRUCTION included in airport civil &buildings AIRPORT OPERATION $130,361,141 AIR SERVICE included in airport operations CAMP &AIRSTRIP CIVIL WORKS CONTRACT S 30,049,914 CAMP &AIRSTRIP BUILDINGS CONSTRUCTION CONTRACT $178,400,154 CAMP OPERATION &SECURITY CONTRACT $159,115,083 CLEARING CONTRACT $45,297,999 TURBINE,GENERATOR,TRANSFORMER SUPPLY CONTRACT $201,792,198 MEDICAL &EVACUATION CONTRACT $20,721,785 RAILROAD ARRC OPERATION CONTRACT $59,508,577 CONSTRUCTION INTEREST TBD PROJECT ESCALATION TBD FINANCING COST TBD OWNER INSURANCE S 61,590,428 TOTAL PROGRAM COST $5,595,007,101 Per AACE Cost Estimate Guidelines Estimate Range LOW PROGRAM COST -30%$3,916,504,971 HIGH PROGRAM COST +50%S 8,392,510,652 .is a i id .ao | j f\Xeal ROAD ''a >, woe .a Da 500 of ' "®on of Fropapie Co ésia nina.=io Currency:US Dollar-3rd Quarter 2014 Grand Total Price:3 WEPAIRGR: Neath Description ™yQuantityd UOMG ER Unit Pricey rotate _.Comments336.Roads,Rail &'Air Facilities 1iLS $112,315,436 336.100 |Permanent Access Road 4jLS $112,315,436 336.101 Clearing &Grubbing 876.50]AC 8,203.17|$7,190,075 336.102 Pioneer 2,587.20|STA 775.39]$2,006,089 336.103 Erosion &Sediment Controls 1.00|LS 936,379.83}$936,380 336.104 Permanent Access Road Excavation Common &Organic Str 1,711,400.00|CY 6.93]$41,852,205 includes 400,000 cy Strippin 336.104A Permanent Access Road Place Organic on Slopes 400,000.00|CY 5.921 $2,367,920 336.105 Permanent Access Road Excavation Rock 1,311,400.00|CY 12.57|$16,481,169 336.106 Permanent Access Road Embankment 2,522,690.00|ECY 3.88]$9,787,455 336.107 Gravel Surfacing 153,315.00|CY 20.63}$3,163,255 Inc Fine Grade 336.108 Permanent Access Road Long Span Bridge MP5.8 740.00)/FT 4,469.34]$3,307,312 24ft Wide Deck 336.109 Permanent Access Road Long Span Bridge MP14.9 825.00)/FT 6,229.32}$5,139,192 24ft Wide Deck 336.110 Permanent Access Road Long Span Bridge MP15.1 700.00|FT §,509.00]$3,856,303 24ft Wide Deck 336.141 Permanent Access Road Long Span Bridge MP17.3 290.00|FT 4,752.60}$1,378,255 24ft Wide Deck 336.142 Permanent Access Road Long Span Bridge MP21.6 516.00]FT §,292.27|$2,730,814 24ft Wide Deck 336.113 Permanent Access Road Long Span Bridge MP26 880.00]FT 5,956.06]$§,241,331 24ft Wide Deck 336.114 Permanent Access Road Long Span Bridge MP43 820.00)FT 4,809.85]$3,944,076 24ft Wide Deck 336.115 Permanent Bridge at Site 335.00/FT 13,951.70]$4,673,820 28ft Wide Deck 336.116 Permanent Access Road Drainage 865.00]LOC 9,469.91]$8,191,472 336.117 Guard Rail 51,744.00/LF 48.401 $2,504,588 20%of Road 336.118 Riprap 1,730.00}LOC 367.30]$635,428 336.119 Seeding 876.50{AC 2,200.00]$4,928,300 336.120 24.9 KV System inc transmission (&fibreoptics)from Intertie 50.00}Miles 300,000.00]$15,000,000 Allowance g Subtotal:|$112,315,436 Mobilization/Field Oversight Expenses $s 29,178,749 1 Contractor General Conditions (Prime)17|Mo 4,716,397.00]$29,178,749 Unidentified Required Items $11,319,535 1 Uniisted Items Allowance ys 8%$411,319,535 Subtotal:|$152,813,720 Markups $21,760,674 4 Subcontractor Markups 4 LS 0.0%$-included 2 Prime Contractor OH&P on Subs 4 LS 0.0%$-included 3 Prime Contractor OH&P on Self-Perform 1 LS 12.0%$18,337,646 4 Contractor Insurance Program 1 LS 2.0%$3,423,027 5 Taxes 1 LS 0.0%$-included 6 Escalation 41 LS 0.0%$-not included Running Subtotal:|$174,574,394 Project Administration &Management $17,457,439 1 Construction Oversight &Mgt 1 LS 0%$-not included 2 Engineering 1 LS 0%$-not included 3 Permitting/Planning/Procurement 1 LS 0%$-not included * 4 Scope Contingency/Market Conditions 1 LS 10%$17,457,439 5 Construction Contingency/Management Reserve 41 LS 0%$-not included Grand Total:|$192,031,833 {Total Estimated Constr Costs w/Cont. Notes:Cost Range:|_$153,630,000 ||$240,040,000Per AACE cost estimate guidelines 1 This OPCC is classified as a Class 4 cost estimate per AACE guidelines.-20%25% 2 Pricing basis =3rd Qtr 2014,escalation te midpoint of construction is not included. 3 Pricing assumes market conditions at time of tender (+3 bidders/trade). 4 Owner soft costs and project management expenses excluded. Estimating Disclaimer-Engineer's Opinion of Probable Construction Costs fieldTheclientherebyacknowledgesthatMWHhasnocontroloverthecostsoflabor,materiats, not vary significantly from MWH's good faith Class 4 OPCC bidding up financial and/or commodity market conditions,or any other factors likely to affect the OPCC of this project,al of which are and will unavoidably remain in a state of change,especialyin tight of high market volatility attributable to Acts of God and other market forces or events beyond the control of the parties,As such,Client recognizes that this OPCCdeliverableIsbasedonnormalmarketconditions,defined by stable resource supply/demand relationships,and does not account for extreme inflationary or deflationary market cycles.Client further acknowledges that this OPCC is a "snapshotin time”and thatthereliabilityofthisOPCCwilldegradeovertime.Client agrees that MWH cannot and does not make any warranty,promise,guarantee or representation,either express or implied that proposals,bids,project construction costs,or cost of O&M functions will of ility,concept andp 'ontheaccuracyrangesarefrom-15%to -30%on the low side and +20%to 50%'on the high side, Standards). y budget approval.Virtually all Class 4 estimates use stochastic estimating methods such as cost curves,capacity factors,and other could exceed those shownin unusual circumstances.As little as 20 hours or less to perhaps more than 300 hours may be spent preparing the estimate depending on the project and AACE International CLASS 4 Cost Estimate-Class.4 estimates are generally prepared based on limited information and subsequently have fairly wide accuracy ranges.Typically,engineering is 10%to 40%complete.They are typically used for projectnd of the project,appropriate reference information,and the inclusion of an (AACE Ranges Practices and Load Haul to Road Emankment em =eS =Estimate:10-1-2013 -PERMANENT ACCESS ROAD CONTRACT . Currency:USD-United States-Dollar Item Description i Quantity [_UOoM Rate |ManHrs Labor |Equip |JobMat_.[|_PermMat |Sub/Plug L:Total Cost Roads,Rail &Air Facilities 1.00 LS 562,027 42,372,577 33,221,678 19,152,319 29,717,335 17,030,300 141,494,269 $62,026.72 42,372,576.69 _33,221,678.45 19,152,319.04 29,717,334.87 17,030,300.00 141,494 ,209.01PermanentAccessRoad1.00 LS 408,197 31,299,920 31,022,428 3,347,467 29,717,335 16,928,300 112,315,450 {408,197.28 31,299,919.74 31,022,428.30 3,347 466.89 29,717,334.87 16,928,300.00 112,315.449.80+876.50 AC*48625 18382 (Astomeree 55.82 4,242.58 3,960.58 8,203.17[os Clearing 876.50 AC 21,036 1,560,521 987,570 2,548,091 24.00 1,780.40 1,126.72 2,907.12Prod=0.25 acre/hour (5.00 acre/day),24.000MH/acre,0.04 acre/MH,3,506.00 hour (175.30 days) Heavy Density Clearing of Trees 1.00 EA 726.78 Equipment Foreman 1.0 80.85 283,460 Backhoe Operator 1.0 80.85 283,460 Dozer Operator 41.0 78.17 274,064 Labourer 3.0 68.41 719,536 305 Hsp Bulldozer (Cat D8 )1.0 144.73 507,423 2.6 CY Backhoe (Cat 350)1.0 118.77 416,408 3/4 Ton Crew Cab Truck 4x4 4.0 18.18 63,739 [10 Grubbing 876.50 AC 27,889 2,158,102 2,483,881 4,641,984! 31.82 2,462.18 2,833.86 5,296.05;Prod=0.22 AC/hour (4.40 AC/day),31.818MH/AC,0.03 AC/MH,3,984.09 hour (199.20 days) Grubb Heavy Tree Roots &Haul On Site 1.00 EA 1165.13 Backhoe Operator 1.0 80.85 322,114 Dozer Operator 1.0 78.17 311,436 Labour Foreman 1.0 75.00 298,807Labourer4.0 68.44 272,552 Off Hwy Truck Driver 3.0 79.75 953,194 305 Hsp Bulldozer (Cat D8 )1.0 144.73 $76,617 2.6 CY Backhoe (Cat 350)1.0 118.77 473,190 35 Ton Articulated Truck (Cat D350)3.0 114.25 1,365,547 3/4 Ton Pickup Truck 4x4 1.0 17.20 68,526 338.108 = --Pioneer 2,687.20 STA LL 03,530-sewe4 :302,670-"2,006,1003.48 271.93 503.47 775.39 {os Pioneer 2,587.20 STA 9,000 703,530 1,302,570 2,006,100 3.48 271,93 503.47 775.39 Prod=0.86 STA/hour (17.25 STA/day),3.479MH/STA,0.29 STA/MH,3,000.00 hour (150.00 days) Pioneer 1.00 EA 668.7 Dozer Operator 3.0 78.17 703,530 305 Hsp Bulldozer (Cat 08 }3.0 144.73 1,302,570 r4:0048:M10,833 omans 42.038 60,545 wo Ee 10,533.33 742,035.17 60,544.67 133,800.00 936,379.83 [10 Erosion &Sediment Controls 4,00 LS 10,533 742,035 60,545 133,800 936,380 10,533.33 742,035.17 60,544.67 133,800.00 936,379.83 Prod=300.00 SF/hour (3,000.00 SF/day),0.017MH/SF,60.00 SF/MH,1,666.67 hour (166.67 days) Place Erosion Mat 1.00 EA 365.84 Labour Foreman 1.0 75.00 125,000 Labourer 4.0 68.41 456,067 3/4 Ton Pickup Truck 4x4 1.0 17.20 28,667 Prod=200.00 ft/fhour (2,000.00 ft/day),0.020MH/ft,50.00 fH,550.00 hour (55.00 days) Erect Silt Fence with Rubber Tire Backhoe 1.00 EA 350.63 Backhoe Operator 1.0 80.85 44 68 Labour Foreman 1.0 75.00 41,250 Labourer 2.0 68.41 75,251 1.7 CY Backhoe Loader (Case680)1.0 40.76 22,418 3/4 Ton Pickup Truck 4x4 1.0 17.20 9,460 Erosion Mat (Single Net Straw Blanket)500,000.0 sf 0.14 70,000 Heavy Duty Silt Fence 110,000.0 ft 0.58 63,800 r4,741,400.00 CY ran 60,180 +so o50-i 0.04 2.80 4.12 6.93 [as Common Excavation to Embankment 4,311,400.00 CY 48,180 3,842,968 5,639,863 9,482,831 :0.04 2.93 4.30 7.23, [30 Excavation to 1,311,400.00 CY 48,180 3,842,968 5,639,863 9,482,831 0.04 2.93 4,30 7.23 [20 Load Haul to Embankment 1,311,400.00 CY 48,180 3,842,968 5,639,863 9,482,831 :0.04 2.83 4.30 7.23, Prod=299.41 CY/hour (5,988.13 CY/day),0.037MH/CY,27.22 CY/MH,4,380.00 hour (219.00 days) 1.00 EA 2165.03 a ANT ER RA RT eTEstimate:10-1-2013 -PERMANENT ACCESS ROAD CONTRACT Currency:USD-United States-Dollar ftem -Description |Quantity [.uom |Rate |ManHrs |Labor |Equip li Job Mat I Perm Mat |Sub/Plug I Total Cost Equipment Foreman 1.0 80.85 354,123 Grader Operator 1.0 80.85 354,123 Loader Operator 1.0 80.85 354,123 Dozer Operator 2.0 78.17 684,769 Off Hwy Truck Driver 6.0 79.75 2,095,830 305 Hsp Bulldozer (Cat D8 )2.0 144.73 1,267,835 6.5 CY Loader (Cat 980)1.0 108.73 476,237 200 Hsp Grader (Cat 146)1.0 100.98 442,292 35 Ton Articulated Truck (Cat D350)5.0 114.25 2,502,075 26 CY Scraper 450 hsp (Cat 631)1.0 200.02 876,088 3/4 Ton Pickup Truck 4x4 1.0 17,20 75,336 {2s Strip &Stockpile Organic Material 400,000.00 CY 42,000 957,187 1,442,187 2,369,373, 0.03 2.39 3.53 5.92 [20 Load Haul to Stockpile 400,000.00 CY 12,000 957,187 1,412,187 2,369,373 0.03 2.39 3.53 5.92 Prod=300.00 CY/hour (6,000.00 CY/day),O.O30MH/CY,33.33 CY/MH,1,333.33 hour (66.67 days) Load Haut to Stockpile 1.00 EA 1777.03 Equipment Foreman 1.0 80.85 107,800 Grader Operator 1.0 80.85 107,800 Loader Operator 1.0 80.85 107,800 Dozer Operator 2.0 78.17 208,453 Off Hwy Truck Driver 4.0 79.75 425,333 305 Hsp Bulldozer (Cat D8 )2.0 144.73 385,947 6.5 CY Loader (Cat 980)1.0 108.73 444,973 200 Hsp Grader (Cat 14G)1.0 100.98 134,640 35 Ton Articulated Truck (Cat D350)3.0 114.25 457,000 28 CY Scraper 450 hsp (Cat 631)4.0 200.02 266,693 3/4 Ton Pickup Truck 4x4 1.0 17.20 22,933 40,000.00-C¥-SS =7920 0.03 2.39 3.53 5.92 [20 Load Haul From pile to Slope 400,000.00 CY 12,000 957,187 1,410,733 2 2,367,920 0.03 2.39 3.53 §.92 Prod=300.00 CY/hour (6,000.00 CY/day),0.030MH/CY,33.33 CY/MH,1,333.33 hour (68.87 days) Load Haul to Stockpile 1.00 EA 1775.94 Equipment Foreman 1.0 80.85 407,800 Grader Operator 1.0 80.85 107,800 Loader Operator +0 80.85 107,800 Dozer Operator 2.0 78.17 208,453 Off Hwy Truck Driver 4.0 79.75 425,333 305 Hsp Bulldozer (Cat D8 )2.0 144.73 385,947 6.5 CY Loader (Cat 980)1.0 108.73 144,973 200 Hsp Grader (Cat 14G)4.0 400.98 134,640 35 Ton Articulated Truck (Cat D350)3.0 114.25 457,000 26 CY Scraper 450 hsp (Cat 631 )1.0 200.02 266,693 3/4 Ton Pickup Truck 2x2 1.0 16.11 21,480 396.108 Permanent Access Road Excavation Rock $14,400.00 CY *88,084 6 6:34 244-rerin 8,624,437 - erhone 9,221,809 ad --=-16,481;108 0.07 5.06 §,05 2.46 12.57 [io Rock Excavation 1,311,400.00 CY 85,864 6,634,844 6,624,437 3,221,889 16,481,169 0.07 §.06 5.05 2.46 12.57. {10 Presplit Face 72,000.00 SF 1,714 127,641 $1,591 571,587 750,819 0.02 1.77 0.72 7.94 10.43 Prod=210.00 LF/hour (4,200.00 LF/day),0.048MH/LF,21.00 LF/MH,171.43 hour (8.57 days) Drilt &Blast Mass Rock with 3”Hydraulic Drill 1.00 EA 1045.52 a Labour Foreman 1.0 76.00 12,857 Labourer 3.0 68.41 35,182 Powderman 2.0 80.01 27,432 Oriller 3.0 74.77 38,453 Blaster 4.0 80.01 13,716 Hydraulic Drill 3°(AC1238/Tam400)3.0 86.91 44,697 3/4 Ton Pickup Truck 2x2 1.0 16.14 2,762 5 Ton Flat Bed Truck 1.0 24.11 4,133 Drill Steet 180.0 EA 1,000.00 180,000 Drill Bits 360.0 EA 350.00 126,000 REDE-SPLIT PRESPLIT 48,000.0 EA 8.35 150,300 Non Elec Detonators 710.5 EA 6.70 4,761 Lead in Line 157.9 EA 200.00 31,579 Delivery Cost 78.9 EA 4,000.00 78,947 timate Line Detail petapeenah at -= Estimate:10-1-2013 -PERMANENT ACCESS ROAD CONTRACT Currency:USD-United States-Dollarlitem Description |_Quantiy [vom |Rate |ManHrs [Labor |Equip |_JobMat |PermMat |Sub/Piug |Total Cost (20 Drill and Shoot 1,311,400.00 CY 40,383 3,009,284 1,570,709 2,650,302 7,230,295 0.03 2.29 4.20 2.02 5.51fi0_Drilland Shoot Production 1,311,400.00 CY 40,383 3,009,284 1,570,709 2,650,302 7,230,295. 0.03 2.29 1.20 2.02 5.51 Prod=240.00 FT/hour (4,800.00 FT/day),0.042MH/FT,24.00 FT/MH,4,038.33 hour (201.92 days) Drill &Blast Mass Rock with 3”Hydraulic Dritt 1.00 EA 1134.13 Equipment Foreman 1.0 80.85 326,499 Labourer 3.0 68.41 828,787 Powderman 1.0 80.01 323,107 Driller 40 TAIT 1,207,784 Shotfirer 1.0 80.014 323,107 Hydraulic Drill 3"(AC1238/Tam400)40 86.91 1,403,886 3/4 Ton Pickup Truck 4x4 1.0 17.20 69,459 5 Ton Flat Bed Truck 1.0 24.11 97,364BetweenHolesQRC1forevery4holes18,734.3 EA 475 88,988 Shoot Line 936.7 EA $2.00 48,709Caps.74,562.5 EA 7.20 536,850Booster74,562.5 EA 6.90 514,481Anfo1,311,400.0 LB 0.72 944,208 Drill Bits 637.0 EA 400.00 254,786 Drill Stee!262.3 EA 1,000.00 262,280 [30 Rock Excavation to E1 1,126,400.00 CY 37,600 3,005,067 4,297,342 7,302,409 0.03 2.87 3.82 6.48 [20 Load Haul to 1,126,400.00 CY 37,600 3,005,067 4,297,342 7,302,409 0.03 2.67 3.82 6.48 Prod=299.57 CY/hour (5,991.49 CY/day),O.O33MH/CY,29.96 CY/MH,3,760.00 hour (188.00 days): Load Haul fo Road Emankment 1.00 EA 1942.13 Equipment Foreman 1.0 80.85 303,996 Grader Operator .1.0 80.85 303,996 Loader Operator 1.0 80.85 303,996 Dozer Operator 1.0 78.17 293,919 Off Hwy Truck Driver 6.0 79.75 1,799,160 305 Hsp Bulldozer (Cat D8 }1.0 144.73 544,185 6.5 CY Loader (Cat 980)1.0 108.73 408,825 200 Hsp Grader (Cat 14G)1.0 100.98 378,685 35 Ton Articulated Truck (Cat D350):5.0 114.25 2,147,900 26 CY Scraper 450 hsp {Cat 631 }1.0 200.02 752,075 3/4 Ton Pickup Truck 4x4 1.0 17.20 64,672 [40 Rock Excavation to Crusher 185,000.00 CY 6,167 492,852 704,795 1,197,647 0.03 2.66 3.84 6.47 Prod=300.00 CY/hour (6,000.00 CY/day),0.033MH/CY,30.00 CY/MH,616.67 hour (30.83 days) Load Haul to Crusher 1.00 EA 1942.13 Equipment Foreman 1.0 80.85 49,858 Grader Operator 1.0 80.85 49,858 Loader Operator 1.0 80.85 49,858 Dozer Operator : 1.0 78.17 48,205 Off Hwy Truck Driver 6.0 78.75 295,075 305 Hsp Bulldozer (Cat D8 )1.0 144.73 89,250 6.5 CY Loader (Cat 980)1.0 108.73 87,050 200 Hsp Grader (Cat 14G)1.0 100.98 62,271 35 Ton Articulated Truck (Cat D350)'5.0 114.25 352,271 26 CY Scraper 450 hsp (Cat 631 ).1.0 200.02 123,348 3/4 Ton Pickup Truck 4x4 1.0 17.20 10,607 48 BAe 07 59 50,2860.02 1.51 2.37 3.88 [10 Permanent Access Road 2,522,690.00 CY 48,840 3,807,159 5,980,295 9,787,455 0.02 1.51 2.37 3.88 Prod=309.91 ECY/hour (6,198.26 ECY/day),O.OT9MH/ECY,51.65 ECY/MH,8,140.00 hour (407.00 days) Place &Compact Embankment 7.00 EA 1202.39 Excavation Foreman 4.0 80.85 658,119 Grade Checker .1.0 76.04 618,966 Grader Operator 1.0 80.85 658,119 Dozer Operator .1.0 78.17 636,304 Packer Operator 1.0 75.90 617,826 Scraper Water Wagon Operator .1.0 75.90 617,826 242.24 1,971,834570HspBulldozer(Cat D10)1.0 <=ae ==a enn ne nn{Estimate:10-1-2013 -PERMANENT ACCESS ROAD CONTRACT Currency:USD-United States-Dollar[Item I Description [Quantity {uom |Rate |ManHrs I Labor il Equip |JobMat |-PermMat <|SubiPlug }Total Cost 200 Hsp Grader (Cat 14G)1.0 100.98 821,977 26 CY Scraper 450 hsp (Cat 631 )1.0 200.02 1,628,163 30 Ton Compactor 315 hsp (Cat 825)1.0 174.24 1,448,314 3/4 Ton Pickup Truck 4x4 4.0 17.20 140,008 398.107 =e Gravel Surtacing--183,318.00 CY 19,348mpm 10,738 mae 52,618 ror = 0.13 9.85 10.78 20.63 [10 Fine Grade Roadway 704,000.00 SY 7,822 614,244 404,659 1,015,903: 0.01 0.87 0.57 1.44 Prod=450.00 SY/hour (4,500.00 SY/day),0.011MH/SY,90.00 SY/MH,1,564.44 hour (156.44 days) Grade &Compact Subgrade Road 1.00 EA 649.37 Grader Operator 1.0 80.85 126,485, Packer Operator 1.0 75.90 118,741 Scraper Operator 1.0 7817 122,293 Grademan 1.0 76.04 118,960 Water Truck Driver 1.0 79.75 124,764 200 Hsp Grader (Cat 14G)1.0 100.98 157,978 11 CY Elevated Scraper 175 Hsp (Cat 613)1.0 73.57 115,096 10 Ton Compactor 120 hsp (Dyn CA25)1.0 45,52 71,214 3000 Galton Watertruck 1.0 38.59 60,372 [20 Gravel Surfacing 153,315.00 CY 11,524 899,494 1,247,858 2,147,352 6.08 5.87 8.14 14.01 {20 Crush Road Base from Excavation 370,000.00 TN 4,625 350,917 502,886 853,803 0.01 0.95 1.36 2.31 Prod=400.00 TN/hour (4,000.00 TN/day),0.013MH/TN,80.00 TN/MH,925.00 hour (92.50 days) Secondary Crushing 1.00 EA 923.03 Equipment Foreman 4.0 80.85 74,786 Loader Operator 1.0 80.85 74,786 Crusher Operator 1.0 80.85 74,786 Labourer 2.0 68.41 126,559 6.5 CY Loader (Cat 980)1.0 108.73 100,575 Secondary Plant-500hsp(72"x20ftScreen,50x40Hammermill)1.0 292.82 270,859 500 KW Diesel Generator Set 4.0 124.91 115,542 3/4 Ton Pickup Truck 4x4 10 17.20 15,810 [30 Load Haul Place Road Base from Crusher 153,315.00 CY 6,899 548,576 744,973 4,293,549 0.05 3.58 4.86 8.44 Prod=200.00 CY/hour (2,000.00 CY/day),O.O45MH/CY,22.22 CY/MH,766.57 hour (76.66 days) Load Haul to Place Road Base 1.00.EA 1687.44 Equipment Foreman 1.0 80.85 61,978 Grader Operator 1.0 80.85 61,978 Loader Operator 1.0 80.85 61,978 Dozer Operator 1.0 78.17 59,923 Packer Operator 1.0 75.90 58,183 Off Hwy Truck Driver 40 79.75 244,537 305 Hsp Bulldozer (Cat D8}4.0 144.73 110,946 6.5 CY Loader (Cat 980)1.0 108.73 83,350 200 Hsp Grader (Cat 14G)1.0 100.98 77,409 35 Ton Articulated Truck (Cat D350)3.0 114.25 262,744 26 CY Scraper 450 hsp (Cat 631 )1.0 200.02 153,330 13 Ton Compactor 72”(Cat 553)4.0 57.41 44,009 3/4 Ton Pickup Truck 4x4 1.0 17.20 13,185 336.108 sees Permanent Access Road Long Span Bridge MP5.6- a o-740.00 FT wd 359-4 o3346 0,132 ato 7 984 mr 2,824,572-: 5.89 452.19 175.85 24.30 3,816.99 4,469.34 [5.38 Bridge C ti 740.00 FT 4,359 334,623 130,132 17,984 2,824,572 3,307,312 §.89 452.19 475.85 24.30 3,816.99 4,469.34 }20 Concrete Abutments 64.00 CY 657 49,269 8,123 9,832 20,672 87,897 40.27 769.84 126.93 153.63 323.00 1,373.40 {io Concrete Footer 24.00 CY 168 12,544 2,395 2,180 7,752 24,871 7.02 522.68 99.79 90.83 323.00 1,036.31jowsmaanm3:=z ia 2 FE =revevemannseenenn 0.08 6.40 0.68 5.60 12.68 Prod=84.00 SF/hour (840.00 SF/day),0.083MH/SF,12.00 SF/MH,3.57 hour (0.36 days) Fabricate Gang Formwork 1.00 EA 594.33 Boomtruck Operator 4.0 75.90 271 Labourer 1.0 68.41 244 Carpenter Foreman 1.0 80.00 286 Carpenter 4.0 78.33 1,119 Estimate:10-1-2013 -PERMANENT ACCESS ROAD CONTRACT Currency:USO-United States-Dollar Item Description [Quantity =|om |Rate |Mankrs |Labor I Equip |JobMat |PermMat -_[Sub/Piug |Total Cost 3/4 Ton Crew Cab Truck 4x4 1.0 18.18 65 15 Ton Pitman Boom Truck 1.0 38.52 138 Supply Wood Form Wood Walers &Strongbacks 300.0 SF 5.60 1,680 KL Sep,sitip&Move Forme 300,00,SF-2970,261 -455.308 9.13 9.90 1.20 1.50 12.60 Prod=84.00 SF/haur (840.00 SF/day),0.131MH/SF,7.64 SF/MH,3.57 hour (0.36 days) Set Strip Retaining Walls 1.00 EA 932.78 Crane Operator Class-A 05 80.85 144 Labourer 3.0 68.41 733 Carpenter Foreman 4.0 80.00 286 Carpenter 6.0 78.33 4,679 Oiler .05 72.00 129 150 Ton Crawler Crane (American 9260)05 17.71 210 3/4 Ton Crew Cab Truck 4x4 4.0 18.18 65 5 Ton Flat Bed Truck 10 24.11 86 Set Strip Form Material 300.0 SF 1.50 450 Wix ond Place Gonciele Super Sac 2400 CY BR.20h,Tose 5,400 ae 3.06 220.86 63.88 225.00 509.74, Prod=3.60 CY /hour (36.00 CY/day),3.056MH/CY,0.33 CY/MH,6.67 hour (0.67 days) Mix &Place Super Sack Concrete 1.00 EA 1025.08 Loader Operator 1.0 80.85 539 Concrete Foreman 1.0 77.39 516 Concrete Labourer 3.0 68.41 1,368 Vibrator Operator 2.0 68.41 912 Concrete Truck Spotter 1.0 68.41 456 Carpenter 1.0 78.33 522 Concrete Pump Operator 1.0 68,32 455 Concrete Truck Driver 1.0 79.75 $32 8 CY Concrete Transit Mixer 1.0 69.33 462 124 YPH Trailer Mounted Concrete Pump 1.0 94.98 633 2-CY Concrete Bucket (Gravity)1.0 0.77 5 Concrete Vibrator-Normal 2.0 0.71 9 140 KW Generator Set (Gas)2.0 6.99 93 Cat TH63 Forklift 1.0 32.30 215 3/4 Ton Pickup Truck 4x4 1.0 17.20 115 Super Sack Concrete Mix 24.0 CY 225.00 5,400 face Remniorcng Steg "200,00 Le 2 wT 20 PRS ve G45 0.01 0.43 0.07 0.56 1.06 Prod=0.71 ton/hour (7.13 ton/day),11.228MH/ton,0.09 ton/MH,2.95 hour (0.29 days) Place Reinforcing Steel .1,00 EA 709.18 Crane Operator Class-A Os 80.85 119 Labourer 1.0 88.41 202 lronworker Foreman 1.0 80.00 236 lronworker 5.0 76.64 1,129 4 Oiler 0.5 72.00 106 150 Ton Crawier Crane (American 9260)05 117.71 173 3/4 Ton Crew Cab Truck 4x4 1.0 18.18 54 5 Ton Flat Bed Truck 1.0 24.11 71 Supply Fabricated Rebar 4,200.0 LB 0.56 2,352 Eins Sencreta TOS Z 'ca Ker] 0.01 0.69 0.69 Prod=226.00 SF/hour (2,260.00 SF/day),O.QO9MH/SF,113.00 SF/MH,0.88 hour (0.09 days) Finish Concrete with Trowel 1.00 EA 156.66 Cement Finisher 2.0 78.33 139 . Cbure Concrete 300,00,SF ha a 1 Mu 20,FED0.00 0.38 0.10 0.48) Prod=417.25 SF/hour (4,172.50 SF/day),O.OOSMH/SF,208.63 SF/MH,1.20 hour (0.12 days) Apply Concrete Curing Agent 1.00 EA 156,66 Cement Finisher 2.0 78.33 188 Curing Agent per sf 500.0 SF 0.10 50 [Pach &Pom 00.0 3 205 . 0.01 0.78 0.78 Prod=200.00 SF/hour (2,000.00 SF/day),0.010MH/SF,100.00 SF/MH,1.50 hour (0.15 days) Point &Patch Concrete 1.00 EA 156.66 te Line Det =------<=== Estimate:10-1-2013 -PERMANENT ACCESS ROAD CONTRACT Currency:USD-United States-DotlarItem]Description L._Quantity [vom |Rate |ManHrs {Labor lI Equip [|_Job Mat Perm Mat |[{Total Cost Cement Finisher 2.0 78.33 235 [20 Concrete Back Walt &Wings 40.00 CY 489 36,725 5,728 7,652 12,920 63,026 12.22 918.13 143.21 191.31 323.00 1,575.65|aR TT ST $68.00 $f (Anco AERA TEL Ti00 0.08 6.40 0.67 5.60 12.68 Prod=84.00 SF/hour (840.00 SF/day),0.0B3MH/SF,12.00 SF/MH,10.33 hour (1.03 days) Fabricate Gang Formwork 1.00 EA 594.33 Boomtruck Operator 19 75.90 784 Labourer 1.0 68.41 707 Carpenter Foreman 1.0 80.00 827 Carpenter 40 78,33 3,238 3/4 Ton Crew Cab Truck 4x4 1.0 18.18 188 15 Ton Pitman Boom Truck 1.0 38.52 398 Supply Wood Form Wood Wailers &Strongbacks 868.0 SF 5.60 4,861 EE Set Site Sows Pons BAIS wind eA PRE mA)PEED 0.13 8.90 1.20 1.50 12.60 Prod=84.00 SF/hour (840.00 SF/day),0.131MH/SF,7.64 SF/MH,20.67 hour (2.07 days) Set Strip Retaining Walls 1.00 EA 932.78 Crane Operator Class-A 0.5 80.85 835 Labourer 3.0 68.41 4,241 Carpenter Foreman 1.0 80.00 1,853 Carpenter 6.0 78,33 9,713 Oiler os 72.00 744 150 Ton Crawler Crane (American 9260)o5 117.71 1,216 4 Ton Crew Cab Truck 4x4 1.0 18.18 376 5 Ton Flat Bed Truck 4.0 24.11 498 Set Strip Form Maternal 1,736.0 SF 1.50 2,604 |ete Supers 7000 Cy en E 235 5,000 3.06 220.86 63.88 225.00 Prod=3,60 CY/hour (36.00 CY/day),3.056MH/CY,0.33 CY/MH,11.14 hour (1.11 days) Mix &Place Super Sack Concrete 1.00 EA 1025.08 Loader Operator 1.0 80.85 898 Concrete Foreman 1.0 77.39 860 Concrete Labourer 3.0 68.41 2,280 Vibrator Operator 2.0 68.41 1,520 Concrete Truck Spotter 1.0 68.41 760 Carpenter 1.0 78.33 870 Concrete Pump Operator 1.0 68.32 759 Concrete Truck Driver 1.0 79.75 886 8 CY Concrete Transit Mixer 1.0 69.33 770 124 YPH Trailer Mounted Concrete Pump 4.0 94.98 1,055 2-CY Concrete Bucket (Gravity)1.0 077 9 Concrete Vibrator-Normal 2.0 071 16 10 KW Generator Set (Gas)2.0 6.99 155 Cat TH63 Forklift 10 32.30 359 3/4 Ton Pickup Truck 4x4 1.0 17.20 191 Super Sack Concrete Mix 40.0 CY 225.00 9,000 ce,Rel ing Ste neton -peed '£000.90 LS EA )ez Ag?pry aiek:wesO 0.01 0.43 0.07 0.56 1.06 Prod=0.71 ton/hour (7.13 ton/day),11.228MHf/on,0.09 ton/MH,4.91 hour (0.49 days) Place Reinforcing Steet . 1.00 EA 709.18 Crane Operator Class-A 05 80.85 199 Labourer 1.0 68.41 336 lronworker Foreman 1.0 80.00 393 lronworker 5.0 76.64 1,882 Oiler Os 72.00 177 150 Ton Crawler Crane (American 9260)05 417.71 289 3/4 Ton Crew Cab Truck 4x4 1.0 48.18 89 5 Ton Flat Bed Truck 1.0 2411 118 Supply Fabricated Rebar 7,000.0 LB 0.56 3,920 ini ety 40.00 L of 2 0.01 069 0.69 Prod=226.00 SF/hour (2,260.00 SF/day),O.CO9MH/SF,113.00 SF/AMH,0.62 hour (0.06 days) Finish Concrete with Trowel 1.00 EA 156.66 Cement Finisher 2.0 78.33 97 a a anaemia Currency:USD-United States-Dollar item |Description [Quantity |vomMy|Rate |ManHrs H Labor Equip | JobMat.|PemMat |SubiPlug I Total Cost [Ene Concrete [57600SF ol 704 ES,5g 0.00 0.38 0.10 0.48: Prod=417.25 SF/hour (4,172.50 SF/day),O0.0OSMH/SF,208.63 SF/MH,4.50 hour (0.45 days) Apply Concrete Curing Agent 1.00 EA 156.66 Cement Finisher 2.0 78.33 704 Curing Agent per sf 1,876.0 SF 0.10 188 igh &Pa SWECET I ri 7260 weEgE| 0.01 0.78 0.78 Prod=200.00 SF/hour (2,000.00 SF/day),0.010MH/SF,100.00 SF/MH,8.68 hour (0.87 days) Point &Patch Concrete 1.00 EA 156.66 Cement Finisher 20 78.33 1,360 .[30 Concrete Piers Footer 145.20 CY 932 69,198 13,895 8,152 46,900 138,144 6.42 476.57 95.70 56.14 323.00 951.41 [10 Concrete FooterPiers 4 Ea 145.20 CY 932 69,198 13,895 8,152 46,900 138,144 6.42 476.57 95.70 56.14 323.00 951.41 fee Build Forms 4320 00 SE 93.fai88 55.$272.i bd aid,rea | 0.08 6.40 0.68 5.60 12.68 Prod=84.00 SF/hour (840.00 SF/day),0.083MH/SF,12.00 SF/MH,13.33 hour (1.33 days) Fabnicate Gang Formwork 4.00 EA 594.33 Boomtruck Operator 4.0 75.90 1,012 Labourer 1.0 68.44 912 Carpenter Foreman 1.0 80.00 1,067 Carpenter 4.0 78.33 4178 3/4 Ton Crew Cab Truck 4x4 1.0 18.18 242 15 Ton Pitman Boom Truck 41.0 38.52 514 Supply Wood Form Wood Wailers &Strongbacks 1,120.0 SF 5.60 6,272 oememrenras =ee name =ET g TienSE mz EH Zee wR NE| 0.20 16.12 1.84 4.50 18.46 Prod=55.00 SF/hour (550.00 SF/day),0.200MH/SF,5.00 SF/MH,20.36 hour (2.04 days) Set Strip Retaining Walls 1.00 EA 932.78 Crane Operator Class-A Os 80.85 823 Labourer 3.0 68.41 4,179 Carpenter Foreman 1.0 80.00 1,628 Carpenter 6.0 78.33 9,571 Oiler 0.5 72.00 733 150 Ton Crawler Crane (American 9260)O5 417.71 1,199 3/4 Ton Crew Cab Truck 4x4 1.0 18.18 370 5 Ton Flat Bed Truck 1.0 24.11 491 Set Strip Form Material 1,120.0 SF 1.50 1,680 jac role SupeL Sack Te zr)FREE ae cD ZTE 3.06 220.86 63.88 225.00 509.74 Prod=3.60 CY/hour (36.00 CY/day},3.056MH/CY,0.33 CY/MH,40.33 hour (4.03 days). Mix &Place Super Sack Concrete 1.00 EA 1025.08 Loader Operator 1.0 80.85 3,261 Concrete Foreman 1.0 77.39 3,121 Concrete Labourer 3.0 68.41 8,278 Vibrator Operator 2.0 68.41 5,518 Concrete Truck Spotter 4.0 68.41 2,759 Carpenter 4.0 78.33 3,159 Concrete Pump Operator 1.0 68.32 2,756 Concrete Truck Driver 1.0 79.75 3,217 8 CY Concrete Transit Mixer 1.0 69.33 2,796 124 YPH Trailer Mounted Concrete Pump 1.0 94.98 3,831 2-CY Concrete Bucket (Gravity)1.0 O77 3s Concrete Vibrator-Normal 2.0 0.71 57 10 KW Generator Set (Gas)2.0 6.99 564 Cat TH63 Forklift 1.0 32.30 1,303 3/4 Ton Pickup Truck 4x4 1.0 17.20 604 Super Sack Concrete Mix 145.2 CY 225.00 32,670 [Place Reinforcing Steg)mod 10.00.CB ue eee 7.04,Tso weiRYE 0.01 0.43 0.07 0.56 1.06: Prod=0.71 ton/hour (7.13 ton/day),11.228MH/ton,0.09 ton/MH,17.83 hour (1.78 days) Place Reinforcing Steel 1.00 EA 709.18 0.5 80.85 724CraneOperatorClass-A ar OO I TR OT I aN rm 0 --Estimate:10-1-2013 -PERMANENT ACCESS ROAD CONTRACT Currency:USO-United States-Doltar Item I Description .-|Quantity |_uom |Rate |ManHrs if Labor I Equip i Job Mat |Perm Mat .{Subd/Plug .Total Cost Labourer 1.0 68.41 1,220 tronworker Foreman 1.0 .80.00 1,427 tronworker 5.0 76.64 6,833Oiler0572.00 642 150 Ton Crawler Crane (American 9260)05 417.71 41,049 3/4 Ton Crew Cab Truck 4x4 1.0 18.18 324 5 Ton Flat Bed Truck 1.0 24.11 430 Supply Fabricated Rebar 25,410.0 LB 0.56 14,230 [oii concrete.LS a y 2 8 0.01 0.69 0.69 Prod=226.00 SF/hour (2,260.00 SF/day),0.OO9MH/SF,113.00 SF/MH,3.54 hour (0.35 days) Finish Concrete with Trowel 1.00 EA 156.66 Cement Finisher 2.0 78.33 555 feiite Concrete -2,000 oS.2 pr it,200.As!0.00 0.38 0.10 0.48 Prod=417.25 SF/hour (4,172.50 SF/day),O.0OSMH/SF,208.63 SF/MH,4.79 hour (0.48 days) Apply Concrete Curing Agent 1.00 EA 156.66 Cement Finisher 2.0 78.33 751 Curing Agent per sf 2,000.0 SF 0.10 200 Eo Patch &Paint a 7120.00SF Lu cosamnaeneetll web! 0.01 0.78 0.78 Prod=200.00 SF/hour (2,000.00 SF/day),O.010MH/SF,100.00 SF/MH,5.80 hour (0.56 days) Point &Patch Concreie 1.00 EA 156.66 Cement Finisher 2.0 78.33 877 [40 Superstructure &Pier Steel Purchase 728.00 TN 2,757,000 2,757,000 3,787.09 3,787.09 Pier Steel 78.0 TN 9,705.13 757,000 Superstructure Steel Purchase 650.0 TN 3,076.92 2,000,000 [45 Load &Haul Steel From Rail Yard 36.00 LOADS 180 13,938 5,489 19,427 5.00 387.47 182.47 539.64 Prod=1.80 LOADSshour (18.00 LOADS/day),5.000MH/LOADS,0.20 LOADS/MH,20.00 hour (2.00 days) Load &Haul Stee!From Rail Yard 1.00 EA 974.35 Crane Operator Class-A 1.0 80.85 1,617 tronworker Foreman 1.0 81.79 1,636 lronworker 4.0 76.64 6,131 Highway Truck Driver 3.0 75.90 4,554 40 Ton Hydraulic Crane (Grove700)1.0 62.64 1,253 4 Ton Pickup Truck 4x4 1.0 17.20 344 Tractor &Hi-Trailer 3.0 64.87 3,892 [50 Pier Erection 78.00 TN 350 27,060 9,991 37,051 4.49 346.92 428.09 475.01 Prod#1.56 TN/hour (15.60 TN/day),4.487MH/TN,0.22 TN/MH,50.00 hour (5.00 days) Pier Erection 1.00 EA 741.02 Crane Operator Class-A 1.0 80.85 4,043 lronworker Foreman 1.0 81.79 4,090 ironworker 40 76.64 15,328 Oiler 4.0 72.00 3,600 400 Amp Diesel Welder 41.0 16.99 850 Acetylene Cutting Torch 1.0 4.85 243 10 KW Generator Set (Gas)1.0 6.99 350 375 CFM Diesel Compressor 1.0 36.08 1,804 150 Ton Crawler Crane (American 9260)1.0 117.71 5,886 4 Ton Pickup Truck 4x4 1.0 17.20 860 {eo Erection 650.00 TN 2,240 175,158 92,634 267,792 3.45 269.47 142.51 411.99 Prod=2.03 TWhour (20.31 TN/day),3.446MH/TN,0.29 TN/MH,320.00 hour (32.00 days) Launch Bridge Superstructure 1.00 EA 836.85 Crane Operator Class-A 1.0 80.85 25,872 Dozer Operator 1.0 "7817 25,014 lronworker Foreman 1.0 81.79 26,173 lronworker 4.0 76.64 98,099 305 Hsp Bulkdozer (Cat D8 )1.0 144.73 46,314 400 Amp Diesel Welder 1.0 16.99 5,437 es ago aesDetait-t---at Estimate:10-1-2013 -PERMANENT ACCESS ROAD CONTRACT Currency:USD-United States-Doilar Stem lL Description Quantity |UOM |Rate |Mantis l Labor |Equip l JobMat |PermMat_|Sub/Plug Ll Total Cost Acetylene Cutting Torch 4.0 4.85 1,552 10 KW Generator Set (Gas)1.0 6.99 2,237 375 CFM Diesel Compressor 1.0 36.08 11,546 40 Ton Hydraulic Crane (Grove700)10 62.64 20,045 3/4 Ton Pickup Truck 4x4 1.0 17.20 5,504 336.109-emer Permanent Access Road Long Span Bridge MPI4 Sm oo F Ie jonanconert7 984 arroaend B36 = :6.56 604.76 205.10 21,80 5,497.66 6,229.32 [14.9 Bridge Construction 825,00 FT 5,409 416,429 469,208 17,984 4,535,572 5,139,192: 6.56 $04.76 205.10 21.80 §,497.66 6,229.32 [20 Concrete A 64.00 CY 657 49,269 8,123 9,832 20,672 87,897 10.27 769.84 126.93 153.63 323.00 1,373.40. {i 0 Concrete Footer 24.00 CY 168 12,544 2,395 2,180 7,752 24,871 7.02 522.68 99.79 90.83 323.00 1,036.31 (Bois Forms 300.00 SF oe ren [220 205 wae La _350 0.08 6.40 0.68 5.60 12.68; Prod=84.00 SF/hour (840.00 SF/day),0.083MH/SF,72.00 SF/MH,3.57 hour (0.36 days) Fabricate Gang Formwork 1.00 EA 594.33 Boomtruck Operator 1.0 75.90 271 Labourer 1.0 68.41 244 Carpenter Foreman 1.0 80.00 286 Carpenter 40 78.33 1,119 3/4 Ton Crew Cab Truck 4x4 1.0 18.18 65 15 Ton Pitman Boom Truck 1.0 38.52 138 Supply Wood Form Woad Walers &Strongbacks 300.0 SF 5.60 1,680 el Sup 6 Move ro 00.0 ae 2070 Dol 255.aH: 0.13 9.90 1.20 41.50 12.60 Prod=84.00 SF/hour (840.00 SF/day),0.131MH/SF,7.64 SF/MH,3.57 hour (0.36 days) Set Strip Retaining Walls 1.00 EA 932.78 Crane Operator Class-A 0.5 80.85 144 Labourer 3.0 68.41 733 Carpenter Foreman 1.0 80.00 286 Carpenter 6.0 78.33 1,679 Oiler 05 72.00 129 450 Ton Crawler Crane (American 9260)0.5 117.71 210 3/4 Ton Crew Cab Truck 4x4 1.0 18.18 65 5 Ton Flat Bed Truck 1.0 24.11 86 Set Strip Form Material 300.0 SF 4.50 450 iz fe Super Sac Zab Cv naan soi Too.eA)ERE. 3.06 220.86 63.88 225.00 509.74 Prod=3.60 CY/hour (36.00 CY/day),3.056MH/CY,0.33 CY/MH,6.67 hour (0.67 days) Mix &Place Super Sack Concrete 1.00 EA 1025.08 Loader Operator 1.0 80.85 539 Concrete Foreman 1.0 77.39 516 Concrete Labourer 3.0 68.41 1,368 Vibrator Operator 2.0 68.41 912 Concrete Truck Spotter -1.0 68.44 456 Carpenter 1.0 78.33 522 Concrete Pump Operator 1.0 68.32 455 Concrete Truck Driver 1.0 79.78 532 8 CY Concrete Transit Mixer 1.0 69.33 462 124 YPH Trailer Mounted Concrete Pump 1.0 94,98 633 2-CY Concrete Bucket (Gravity)10 077 § Concrete Vibrator-Normal 2.0 0.71 9 10 KW Generator Set (Gas)2.0 6.99 93 Cat TH63 Forklift 1.0 32.30 215 3/4 Ton Pickup Truck 4x4 1.0 47.20 415 Super Sack Concrete Mix 24.0 CY 225.00 5,400 Co Biice Sentoccig Stel EMME yee?)Te Zoe FRED TH 0.01 0.43 0.07 0.56 1.06 Prod=0.71 ton/hour (7.13 tonf day),11.228MH/ton,0.09 ton/MH,2.95 hour (0.29 days) Place Reinforcing Steel 1.00 EA 709.18 . Crane Operator Class-A 0.5 80.85 119 Labourer 1.0 68.44 202 Ironworker Foreman 1.0 80.00 236 Ironworker 5.0 76.64 1,129 Qilar 0.5 72.00 406 Estimate:10-1-2013 -PERMANENT ACCESS ROAD CONTRACT Currency:USD-Untted States-Dottar Description |Quantity |UOM |Rate ManHrs |Labor |Equip Job Mat |_Perm Mat Total Cost 150 Ton Crawier Crane (American 9260)05 117.71 173 3/4 Ton Crew Cab Truck 4x4 1.0 18.18 54 §Ton Flat Bed Truck 1.0 24.41 "1 Supply Fabricated Rebar 4,200.0 LB 0.56 2,352 J aa ILE Pan Rta =EN 7 0.01 0.69 0.69 Prod=226.00 SF/hour (2,260.00 SF/day),O.CO9MH/SF,113.00 SF/MH,0.88 hour (0.08 days). Finish Concrete with Trowel 1.00 EA 156.66 Cement Finisher 2.0 78.33 139 Beetle SenGile.200,00 SF Zz cE BED PET 0.00 0.38 0.10 0.48 Prod=417.25 SF/hour (4,172.50 SF/day),O.0OSMH/SF,208.63 SF/MH,1.20 hour (0.12 days) Apply Concrete Curing Agent 1.00 EA 156.66 Cement Finisher 2.0 78.33 188 Curing Agent per sf 500.0 SF 0.10 50 (frciarot ee SOLS z = 0.01 0.78 0.78 Prod*200.00 SF/hour (2,000.00 SF/day),0.010MH/SF,100.00 SF/AMH,1.50 hour (0.15 days) Point &Patch Concrete 1.00 EA 156.66 Cement Finisher 2.0 78.33 236 [20 Concrete Back Wall &Wings 40.00 CY 489 36,728 $,728 7,652 12,920 63,026 12.22 918.13 143.21 191.31 323.00 1,575 65anZTEeizEsecETe-Toca] 0.038 6.40 0.67 5.60 12.68 Prod=84,00 SF/hour (840.00 SF/day),0.083MH/SF,12.00 SF/MH,10.33 hour (1.03 days) Fabricate Gang Formwork 1.00 EA 594.33 Boomtruck Operator 4.0 75.90 784 Labourer 1.0 68.41 707 Carpenter Foreman 1.0 80.00 827 Carpenter 4.0 78.33 3,238 3/4 Ton Crew Cab Truck 4x4 1.0 18.18 188 15 Ton Pitman Boom Truck 1.0 38.52 398 Supply Wood Form Wood Walers &Strongbacks 868.0 SF 5.60 4,861 Erect stip §Move Pomme WEIN yryme prada PAT wT PCD|0.13 8.90 1.20 4.50 12.60 Prod=84.00 SF/hour (840.00 SF/day),0.131MH/SF,7.64 SF/MH,20.67 hour (2.07 days) Set Strip Retaining Walls 1.00 EA 932.78 Crane Operator Class-A 05 80.85 835 Labourer 3.0 68.41 4,244 Carpenter Foreman 1.0 80.00 1,653 Carpenter 6.0 78.33 9,713 Oiler as 72.00 744 150 Ton Crawler Crane (American 9260)Os 417.71 1,216 3/4 Ton Crew Cab Truck 4x4 1.0 18.18 376 5 Ton Flat Bed Truck 1.0 24.11 498 Set Strip Form Material 1,736.0 SF 1.60 2,604 tes 5 VIOKTONY nize,Bose 2055 3,000 PIRES|3.06 220.86 63.88 225.00 509.74 Prod=3.60 CY/hour (36.00 CY/day),3.056MH/CY,0.33 CY/MH,11.11 hour (4.11 days) Mix &Place Super Sack Concrete 1.00 EA 1025.08 Loader Operator 1.0 80.85 898 Concrete Foreman 1.0 77.39 860 Concrete Labourer 3.0 68.41 2,280 Vibrator Operator 2.0 68.41 4,520 Concrete Truck Spotter 1.0 68.41 760 Carpenter 1.0 78.33 870 Concrete Pump Operator 1.0 68.32 759 Concrete Truck Driver 1.0 79.75 886 8 CY Concrete Transit Mixer 1.0 69.33 770 124 YPH Trailer Mounted Concrete Pump 1.0 94.98 1,055 2-CY¥Concrete Bucket (Gravity)10 0.77 g Concrete Vibrator-Normal 2.0 0.71 18 10 KW Generator Set (Gas)2.0 6.99 155 Cat TH63 Forklift 1.0 32,30 359 Mix &Place Super Sack Concrete ued ee --oe ll 10-1-2013 -PERMANENT ACCESS ROAD CONTRACT Currency:USD-United States-Dollar [Item [Description i Quantiy |vom |Rate |ManHrs I Labor |Equip I JobMat |PermMat |Total Cost 3/4 Ton Pickup Truck 4x4 1.0 17.20 191 Super Sack Concrete Mix 40.0 CY 225.00 9,000 Pe Piace Reinforcing Steel 77,000.09 4B 35 oer.40,FREI OR. .0.01 0.43 0.07 0.56 1.06 Prod=0.71 ton/hour (7.13 ton/day),11.228MHAon,0.09 ton/MH,4.91 hour (0.49 days) Place Reinforcing Steel 1.00 EA 709.18 Crane Operator Class-A os 80.85 499 Labourer 1.0 68.41 336 lronworker Foreman 1.0 80.00 393 Ironworker 5.0 76.64 1,882 Oiler 0.5 72.00 177 150 Ton Crawler Crane (American 9260)Os 117.71 289 3/4 Ton Crew Cab Truck 4x4 1.0 18.18 89 5 Ton Flat Bed Truck 4.0 24.11 118 Supply Fabricated Rebar 7,000.0 LB 0.56 3,920 iat 5 140,00,SF."a Bz 0.01 0.69 0.69 Prod=226.00 SF/hour (2,260.00 SF/day),O.QO9MH/SF,113.00 SF/MH,0.62 hour (0.06 days) Finish Concrete with Trowel 1.00 EA 156.66 Cement Finisher 2.0 78.33 97 bh Gule Conciele 1576.00 Se ==J08,oy 3oq] 0.00 0.38 0.10 0.48 Prod=417.25 SF/hour (4,172.50 SF/day),0.0OSMH/SF,208.63 SF/MH,4.50 hour (0.45 days) Apply Concrete Curing Agent 1.00 EA 156.66 Cement Finisher 2.0 78.33 704 Curing Agent per sf 1,876.0 SF 0.10 188 Roars Palot 7255.00SF Z ce 1369) 0,01 0.78 0.78 Prod=200.00 SF/hour (2,000.00 SF/day),0.010MH/SF,100.00 SF/MH,8.66 hour (0.87 days) Point &Patch Concrete 1.00 EA 156.66 Cement Finisher 2.0 78.33 1,360 {30 Concrete Piers Footer 145.20 CY 932 69,198 13,895 8,152 46,900 138,144 6.42 476.57 95.70 56.14 323.00 951.41 fio Concrete FooterPiers 4 Ea 145.20 CY 932 69,198 13,895 8,152 46,900 138,144 6.42 476.57 95.70 56.14 323.00 951.41 [Bui Fons T2000,SF oe WALL)Ts Bale Ta79 0.08 6.40 0.68 5.60 12.68 Prod=84.00 SF/hour (840.00 SF/day),0.083MH/SF,12.00 SF/MH,13.33 hour (1.33 days) Fabricate Gang Formwork 1.00 EA 594.33 Boomtruck Operator 1.0 75.90 1,012 Labourer 1.0 68.41 912 Carpenter Foreman 1.9 80.00 1,067 Carpenter 40 78,33 4,178 3/4 Ton Crew Cab Truck 4x4 1.0 18.18 242 15 Ton Pitman Boom Truck 1.0 38.52 514 Supply Wood Form Wood Walers &Strongbacks.1,120.0 SF 5.60 6,272 Er Sey Sip &Move Forms .T1200 SE ya)PT)TL FRE| 0.20 15.12 1,84 1.50 18.46 Prod=55.00 SF/hour (550.00 SF/day),0.200MH/SF,5.00 SF/MH,20.36 hour (2.04 days) Set Strip Retaining Walls 1.00 EA 932.78 Crane Operator Class-A Os 80.85 823 Labourer 3.0 68.41 4,179 Carpenter Foreman 1.0 80.00 1,629 Carpenter 60 78.33 9,571 Oiler 0.5 72.00 733 150 Ton Crawler Crane (American 9260)05 117.71 1,199 3/4 Ton Crew Cab Truck 4x4 1.0 18.18 370 5 Ton Flat Bed Truck 1.0 24.11 491 Set Strip Form Material 1,120.0 SF 1.50 1,680 Fix and Place Concrete Super Sack [4520 CY ion,m2 08 Tae.32,578.ENTE 3.06 220.86 63.88 225.00 509.74 Prod=3.60 CY /hour (36.00 CY/day},3.056MH/CY,0.33 CY/MH,40.33 hour (4.03 days)1.00 EA 1025.08 Detall- Estimate:10-1-2013 -PERMANENT ACCESS ROAD CONTRACT 'Currency:USD-United States-Doltar rrtoa| item l Description [Quantity =] uom |Rate I Labor Equip Perm Mat Total Cost Loader Operator 1.0 80.85 3,261 Concrete Foreman 1.0 77.39 3,121 Concrete Labourer 3.0 68.41 8,278 Vibrator Operator 2.0 68.41 5,518 Concrete Truck Spotter 1.0 68.41 2,759Carpenter1.0 78.33 3,159 Concrete Pump Operator 1.0 68.32 2,756 Concrete Truck Driver 1.0 79.75 3,217 8 CY Concrete Transit Mixer 1.0 69.33 2,796 124 YPH Trailer Mounted Concrete Pump 1.0 94.98 3,831 2-CY Concrete Bucket (Gravity)1.0 0.77 a Concrete Vibrator-Normal 2.0 0.71 57 10 KW Generator Set (Gas)2.0 6.99 564 Cat TH63 Forklift 4.0 32.30 1,303 3/4 Ton Pickup Truck 4x4 1.0 17.20 694 Super Sack Concrete Mix 145.2 CY 225.00 32,670 [Pure Reiiarcng Steet PNG)Te bee we FORT 0.01 0.43 0.07 0.56 1.06 Prod=0.71 ton/hour (7,13 ton/day),11.228MH/ton,0.09 ton/MH,17.83 hour (1.78 days) Place Reinforcing Steel 1.00 EA 709.18 Crane Operator Class-A o5 80.85 721 Labourer 1.0 68.41 1,220 tronworker Foreman 1.0 80.00 1,427 Ironworker 5.0 76.64 6,833 Oiler 05 72.00 642 150 Ton Crawler Crane (American 9260)0.5 117.71 1,049 3/4 Ton Crew Cab Truck 4x4 4.0 18.18 324 5 Ton Flat Bed Truck 1.0 24.11 430 Supply Fabricated Rebar 25,410.0 LB 0.56 14,230 Ens cia SOOT SE aR 0.01 0.69 Prod=226.00 SF/hour (2,260.00 SF/day),0.OO9MH/SF,113.00 SF/MH,3.54 hour (0.35 days) Finish Concrete with Trowel 1.00 EA 156.66 Cement Finisher 2.0 78.33 556 oat comee.2,000.00 ic en 2.a 0.00 0.38 0.10 0.48 Prod=417.25 SF/hour (4,172.50 SF/day),O.OOSMH/SF,208.63 SF/MH,4.79 hour (0.48 days) Apply Concrete Curing Agent 1.00 EA 156.66 Cement Finisher 20 78.33 751 Curing Agent per sf 2,000.0 SF 0.10 200 EePach ero m RES i...Eu B70 0.01 0.78 0.78 Prod=200.00 SF/hour (2,000.00 SF/day),0.010MH/SF,100.00 SF/MH,5.60 hour (0.56 days) Point &Patch Concrete 1.00 EA 156.66 Cement Finisher 2.0 78.33 877 [40 Superstructure &Pier Steel Purchase 989.00 TN 4,468,000 4,468,000 4,517.69 4,517.69 Superstructure Steel Purchase 850.0 TN 3,790.59 3,222,000 Pier Stee!139.0 TN 8,964.03 1,246,000 {45 Load &Haul Steel From Rail Yard $0.00 LOADS 250 19,358 7,624 26,982 5.00 387.17 152.47 §39.64 Prod=1.80 LOADS/hour (18.00 LOADS/day),5.0Q0OMH/LOADS,0.20 LOADS/MH,27.78 hour (2.78 days) Load &Haul Stee!From Rail Yard 1.00 EA 971.35 Crane Operator Class-A 1.0 80.85 2,246 lronworker Foreman 1.0 81.79 2,272 Ironworker 40 76.64 8,516 Highway Truck Driver 3.0 75.90 6,325 40 Ton Hydraulic Crane (Grove700)1.0 62,64 1,740 4 Ton Pickup Truck 4x4 1.0 47.20 478 Tractor &Hi-Trailer 3.0 64.87 5,406 {50 Pier Erection 139.00 TN 630 48,708 17,984 66,692 4.53 350.42 129.38 479,80 Prod=1.54 TN/hour (15.44 TN'day),4.532MH/TN,0.22 TN/MH,90.00 hour (9.00 days) ==as ==<==3 Estimate:10-1-2013 -PERMANENT ACCESS ROAD CONTRACT . Currency:USD-United States-Doftar tem I Description |_Quantity =]vom |Rate |Mantis i Labor |Equip |JobMat |PermMat |Sub/Plug I Total Cost Pier Erection :1.00 EA 741.02 Crane Operator Class-A 1.0 80.85 7,277 tronworker Foreman 1.0 81.79 7,361 lronworker 40 76.64 27,590 Oiler 1.0 72.00 6,480 400 Amp Diesel Welder 1.0 16.99 1,529 Acetylene Cutting Torch 1.0 4.85 437 10 KW Generator Set (Gas)1.0 6.99 629 375 CFM Diesel Compressor 1.0 36.08 3,247 150 Ton Crawler Crane (American 9260)1.0 117.71 10,594 4 Ton Pickup Truck 4x4 1.0 17.20 1,548 60 Superstructure Erection 850.00 TN 2,940 229,895 121,582 351,477 3.46 270.47 143.04 413.50) Prod=2.02 TN/hour (20.24 TN/day),3.459MH/TN,0.29 TN/MH,420.00 hour (42.00 days) Launch Bridge Superstructure 1.00 EA 836.85 Crane Operator Ciass-A 1.0 80.85 33,957 Dozer Operator 1.0 78.17 32,831 (ronworker Foreman 1.0 81.79 34,352 lronworker 4.0 76.64 128,755 305 Hsp Bulktozer (Cat D8 )1.0 144,73 60,787 400 Amp Diese!Welder 1.0 18.99 7,136 Acetylene Cutting Torch 1.0 4.85 2,037 10 KW Generator Set (Gas)1.0 6.99 2,936 375 CFM Diesel Compressor 1.0 36.08 15,154 40 Ton Hydraulic Crane (Grove700)1.0 62.64 26,309 44 Ton Pickup Truck 4x4 10 17.20 7,224 336.10 comm Permanent Accens Road Long Span Bridge MP16:t-en =e A28 wonmrevenes 240 815-138 85Tmmvernen 46,952 were 30,879 en =3.856,3036.32 486.88 198.37 22.79 4,800.97 5,509.00 115.1 Bridge Construction 700.00 FT 4426 340,815 138,857 45,952 3,360,679 3,856,303) 6.32 486.88 198.37 22.79 4,800.97 §,509.00 [20 Concrete Abutments 64.00 CY 657 48,269 8,123 9,832 20,672 87,897 10.27 769.84 126.93 153.63 323.00 4,373.40 {io Concrete Footer 24.00 CY 168 12,544 2,395 2,180 7,762 24,874 7.02 522.68 99.79 90.83 323.00 1,036.31 Copal Fors MOT 75 =Ls20 25 EO eT 0.08 6.40 0.68 5.60 12.68 Prod=84.00 SF/hour (840.00 SF/day),0.083MH/SF,12.00 SF/MH,3.57 hour (0.36 days) Fabricate Gang Formwork 1.00 EA 594.33 Boomtruck Operator 1.0 75.90 271 Labourer 1.0 68.41 244 Carpenter Foreman 1.0 80.00 286 Carpenter 40 78.33 1,119 3/4 Ton Crew Cab Truck 4x4 1.0 18.18 65 15 Ton Pitman Boom Truck 4.0 38.52 138 Supply Wood Form Wood Walers &Strongbacks 300.0 SF 5.60 1,680 ove 200,00.EET aX}ON)eq a KE 0.13 9.90 1.20 1.50 12.60! Prode84.00 SF/hour (840.00 SF/day),0.131MH/SF,7.64 SF/MH,3.57 hour (0.36 days) Set Strip Retaining Walls 1.00 EA 932.78 Crane Operator Class-A 0.5 80.85 144 Labourer 3.0 68.41 733 Carpenter Foreman 1.0 80.00 286 Carpenter 6.0 78.33 1,679 Oiler 05 72.00 129 150 Ton Crawler Crane (American 9260)Os 117.71 210 3/4 Ton Crew Cab Truck 4x4 1.0 18.18 65 §Ton Flat Bed Truck 1.0 2411 86 Set Strip Form Material 300.0 SF 1.50 450 iz jele Supel Sa 24,006 wen =.jo ma d00 slaes 3.06 220.86 63.88 225.00 509.74, Prod=3.60 CY/hour (36.00 CY/day),3.056MH/CY,0.33 CY/MH,6.87 hour (0.67 days) Mix &Place Super Sack Concrete 1.00 EA 1025.08 Loader Operator 1.0 80.85 539 Concrete Foreman 1.0 77.39 $16 Concrete Labourer 3.0 68.41 1,368 20 68.41 912VibratorOperator --we =noelEstimate:10-1-2013 -PERMANENT ACCESS ROAD CONTRACT Currency:USD-United States-Dollar Htem _Description [Quantity ["vom [Rate [|ManHrs |Labor'I Equip'|_JobMat |Permmat |SubiPlug 1 Tota!CostConcreteTruckSpotter1.0 68.41 456 Carpenter 1.0 78.33 522 Concrete Pump Operator 1.0 68.32 455 Concrete Truck Driver 1.0 79.75 532 8 CY Concrete Transit Mixer 1.0 69.33 462 124 YPH Trailer Mounted Concrete Pump 1.0 94.98 633 2-CY Concrete Bucket (Gravity)1.0 0.77 5 Concrete Vibrator-Norma}20 0.71 9 40 KW Generator Set (Gas)2.0 6.99 93 Cat TH63 Forklift 4.0 32.30 215 3/4 Ton Pickup Truck 4x4 1.0 17.20 415 Super Sack Concrete Mix 24.0 CY 225.00 5,400 EC Fiace Remfocig Steal Ton oe Le en "Loe Pon rkaN Ee 0.01 0.43 0.07 0.56 7.06 Prod=0.71 ton/hour (7.13 ton/day),11.228MH/ton,0.09 ton/MH,2.95 hour (0.29 days) Place Reinforcing Steel 1.00 EA 709.18 Crane Operator Class-A Os 80.85 119 Labourer 1.0 68.41 202 Ironworker Foreman 1.0 80.00 236 lronworker 5.0 76.64 1,129 Oiler 0s 72.00 106 150 Ton Crawler Crane (American 9260)0.5 117.71 173 3/4 Ton Crew Cab Truck 4x4 1.0 18.18 54 5 Ton Flat Bed Truck 4.0 24.11 71 Supply Fabricated Rebar 4,200.0 LB 0.56 2,352 Kimi TELE =rE =| 0.01 0.69 0.69 Prod=226.00 SF/hour (2,260.00 SF/day),O.COOMH/SF,113.00 SF/MH,0.88 hour (0.09 days) Finish Concrete with Trowel 1.00 EA 156.66 Cement Finisher 2.0 78.33 139 mere 0g go SF Zz Ee.Ea | 0.00 0.38 0.10 0.48 Prod=417.25 SF/hour (4,172.50 SF/day),O.OOSMH/SF,208.63 SF/MH,1.20 hour (0.12 days) Apply Concrete Curing Agent 1.00 EA 156.66 Cement Finisher 2.0 78.33 188 Curing Agent persf 500.0 SF 0.10 50 EeFitch &Paint 300,005,a)Pea Zyl 0.01 0.78 0.7Prod=200.00 SF /hour (2,000.00 SF/day),O.010MH/SF,100.00 SF/MH,1.50 hour (0.15 days) Point &Patch Concrete 1.00 EA 156.66 Cement Finisher 2.0 78.33 235 {20 Concrete Back Wall &Wings 40.00 CY 489 36,725 5,728 7,652 12,920 63,026 12.22 918.13 143.21 191.31 323.00 1,575.65EeEuigroms. -65,00 reaee Fn EA ree =The 0.08 6.40 0.67 5.60 12.68 Prod=84.00 SF/hour (840.00 SF/day),0.083MH/SF,12.00 SF/MH,10.33 hour (1.03 days) Fabricate Gang Formwork 1.00 EA 594.33 Boomtruck Operator 1.0 75.90 784 Labourer 1.0 68.41 707 Carpenter Foreman 1.0 80.00 827 Carpenter 4.0 78.33 3,238 3/4 Ton Crew Cab Truck 4x4 1.0 18.18 188 15 Ton Pitman Boom Truck 1.0 38.52 398 Supply Wood Form Wood Walers &Strongbacks 868.0 SF 5.60 4,861 Mow Trane se VPXA Loe 20s0 ATT Zea 0.13 9.90 1.20 1.50 42.60 Prod=84.00 SF/hour (840.00 SF/day),0.131MH/SF,7.64 SF/MH,20.67 hour (2.07 days) Set Strip Retaining Walls 1.00 EA 932.78 Crane Operator Class-A 0.5 80.85 835 Labourer 3.0 68.41 4,241 Carpenter Foreman 1.0 80.00 1,653 Carpenter 6.0 78.33 9,713 Oiler 05 72.00 744 150 Ton Crawter Crane (American 9260}a5 417,71 1,216 eesEstimateLineDetail--r-- es Estimate:10-1-2013 -PERMANENT ACCESS ROAD CONTRACT Currency:USD-United States Dollar Item I Description L.Quantity [|uom|Rate [|Mankrs |Labor I Equip |_JobMat |PermMat_|Sub/Plug I Total Cost 3/4 Ton Crew Cab Truck 4x4 1.0 18.18 376 5 Ton Flat Bed Truck 1.0 24.11 498 Set Strip Form Material 1,736.0 SF 1.50 2,604 Or Mix and Place Gonsele Super Sack 7000 cy ee LY Bes S000 20.35 3.06 220.86 63.88 225,00 509.74 Prod=3.60 CY/hour (36.00 CY/day),3.056MH/CY,0.33 CY/MH,11.11 hour (1.11 days) Mix &Place Super Sack Concrete 1.00 EA 1025.08 Loader Operator 1.0 80.85 898 Concrete Foreman 1.0 77.39 860 Concrete Labourer 3.0 68.41 2,280 Vibrator Operator 2.0 68.41 1,520 Conerete Truck Spotter 1.0 68.41 760 Carpenter 1.0 78.33 870 Concrete Pump Operator 1.0 68.32 759 Concrete Truck Driver 1.0 79.75 886 8 CY Concrete Transit Mixer 1.0 69.33 770 124 YPH Trailer Mounted Concrete Pump 1.0 94.98 1,055 2-CY Concrete Bucket (Gravity)1.0 0.77 9 Concrete Vibrator-Normal 2.0 0.71 16 10 KW Generator Set (Gas)2.0 6.99 155 Cat TH63 Forkfift 1.0 32.30 359 3/4 Ton Pickup Truck 4x4 1.0 17.20 191 Super Sack Concrete Mix 40.0 CY 225.00 9,000 Ee Piace Reinforcing Steel ANT MEA Fo 2561 797,230 ee 0.01 0.43 0.07 0.56 4.06 Prod=0.71 ton/hour (7.13 ton/day),11,.228MH/ton,0.09 ton/MH,4.91 hour (0.49 days) Place Reintorcing Steet 1.00 EA 709.18 Crane Operator Class-A O.5 80.85 199 Labourer 1.0 68.41 336 lronworker Foreman 1.0 80.00 393 Ironworker 5.0 76.64 1,882 Oiler 0.5 72.00 V7 450 Ton Crawler Crane (American 9260)os 117.71 289 3/4 Ton Crew Cab Truck 4x4 1.0 18.18 89 5 Ton Flat Bed Truck 1.0 24.14 118 Supply Fabricated Rebar 7,000.0 LB 0.56 3,920 i rat [000 sr ane Pil y 0.01 0.69 0.69 Prod=226.00 SF/hour (2,260.00 SF/day),0.OO9MH/SF,113.00 SF/AMH,0.62 hour (0.06 days) Finish Concrete with Trowel 1.00 EA 156.66 Cement Finisher 2.0 78.33 97 Qo ue Concisie Lies 3 Tos ise ee 0.00 0.38 6.10 0.48! Prod=417.25 SF/hour (4,172.50 SF/day),O.OOSMH/SF,208.63 SF/MH,4.50 hour (0.45 days) Apply Concrete Curing Agent 1.00 EA 156.66 Cement Finisher 2.0 78.33 704 Curing Agent per sf 1,876.0 SF 0.10 188 Er Pate FRAMES kd T200 r 0.01 0.78 0.78 Prod=200.00 SF/hour (2,000.00 SF/day),0.040MH/SF,100.00 SF/MH,8.68 hour (0.87 days) Point &Patch Concrete 1.00 EA 156.66 Cement Finisher 2.0 78.33 1,360 [30 Concrete Piers Footer 109.00 CY 699 51,946 10,431 6,120 35,207 103,703 8.42 476.57 95.70 56.14 323.00 951.41 [10 Concrete FooterPiers 4 Ea 109.00 CY 699 51,946 10,431 6,120 35,207 103,703 6.42 476.57 95.70 56.14 323.00 951.41 Cia Fame Bu SF oC E20 =e a sa 0.08 6.40 0.68 5.60 12.68 Prod=84.00 SF/hour (840.00 SF/day),0.083MH/SF,12.00 SF/MH,10.01 hour (1.00 days) Fabricate Gang Formwork 1.00 EA 594.33 Boomtruck Operator 1.0 75.90 760 Labourer 1.0 68.41 685 Carpenter Foreman 1.0 80.00 801 Carenter 40 78.33 3,136 -a ATT =- Estimate:10-1-2013 -PERMANENT ACCESS ROAD CONTRACT : Currency:USD-United States-DollarItem Description {Quantity |uom |Rate |ManHrs I Labor |Equip |JobMat |PermMat H Total Cost 3/4 Ton Crew Cab Truck 4x4 1.0 18.18 182 15 Ton Pitman Boom Truck 1.0 38.52 386 Supply Wood Form Wood Wailers &Strongbacks 840.8 SF 5.60 4,708 KSa.Spa eva borne,EUTESE TEE LIS mn aed 0.20 15.12 1.84 1.50 18,46 Prod=55.00 SF/hour (550.00 SF/day),0.200MH/SF,5.00 SF/MH,15.29 hour (1.53 days) Set Strip Retaining Walls 1.00 EA 932.78 Crane Operator Class-A 05 80.85 618 Labourer 3.0 68.41 3,137 Carpenter Foreman 1.0 80.00 1,223 Carpenter 6.0 78.33 7,184 Oiler 0S 72.00 550 150 Ton Crawler Crane (American 9260)0.5 417.71 900 3/4 Ton Crew Cab Truck 4x4 1.0 18,18 278 5 Ton Flat Bed Truck 1.0 24.11 369 Set Strip Form Materia!840.8 SF 1.50 1,261 han WVix.and Place Concrele Super Sack 03.90 SF RE PRD)co 3.06 220.86 63.88 225.00 $09.74 Prod=3.60 CY/hour (36.00 CY/day),3.0S6MH/CY,0.33 CY/MH,30.28 hour (3.03 days) Mix &Place Super Sack Concrete 1.00 EA 1025.08 Loader Operator 1.0 80.85 2.448 Concrete Foreman 1.0 77.39 2,343 Concrete Labourer 3.0 68.41 6.214 Vibrator Operator 20 68.41 4,143 Concrete Truck Spotter 1.0 68.41 2,071 Carpenter 1.0 78.33 2,372 Concrete Pump Operator 1.0 68.32 2,069 Concrete Truck Driver 1.0 79.75 2,415 8 CY Concrete Transit Mixer 1.0 69.33 2,099 124 YPH Trailer Mounted Concrete Pump 1.0 94.98 2,876 2-CY Concrete Bucket (Gravity)1.0 0.77 23 Concrete Vibrator-Normal 20 0.71 43 10 KW Generator Set (Gas)2.0 6.99 423 Cat TH63 Forklift 1.0 32.30 978 3/4 Ton Pickup Truck 4x4 1.0 17.20 521 Super Sack Concrete Mix 109.0 CY 225.00 24,525 PERT ACTINE)To LL Toot Poche Fite| 0.04 0.43 0.07 0.56 1.06 Prod=0.71 ton/hour (7.13 ton/day),11.228MH/ton,0.09 ton/MH,13.39 hour (1.34 days) Place Reinforcing Steel 1.00 EA 709.18 Crane Operator Class-A 05 80.85 5441 Labourer 1.0 68.41 916 Ironworker Foreman 1.0 80.00 1,071 lronworker 5.0 76.64 §,130 Oiler 0.5 72.00 482 150 Ton Crawler Crane (American 9260)0.5 417.71 788 3/4 Ton Crew Cab Truck 4x4 1.0 18.18 243 5 Ton Flat Bed Truck 1.0 24.11 323 Supply Fabricated Rebar 19,075.0 LB 0.56 10,682 ag rN ae ==TG 0.01 0.69 0.69 Prod=226.00 SF/hour (2,260.00 SF/day),0.009MH/SF,113.00 SF/MH,2.66 hour (0.27 days) Finish Concrete with Trowel 1.00 EA 156.66 Cement Finisher 2.0 78.33 418 Co KM m0 = 0.00 0.38 0.10 0.48 Prod=417.25 SF/hour (4,172.50 SF/day),0.00SMH/SF,208.63 SF/MH,3.60 hour (0.36 days) Apply Concrete Curing Agent 1.00 EA 156,66 Cement Finisher 2.0 78.33 564 Curing Agent per sf 1,501.4 SF 0.10 150 CE co ae 3 oa = 0.01 0.78 0.78 Prod=200.00 SF/hour (2,000.00 SF/day),0.010MH/SF,100.00 SF/MH,4.20 hour (0.42 days) Point &Patch Concrete 1.00 EA 156.66 Estimate Line Detail : Estimate:10-1-2013 -PERMANENT ACCESS ROAD CONTRACT | Supply Wood Form Wood Walers &Strongbacks Currency:USD-United States-Dotar : Item I Description Quantity .|UOM |Rate |Manbrs |Labor .Equip |JobMat_|-_Perm Mat Total Cost Cement Finisher 2.0 78.33 659 [40 Superstructure &Pier Stee!Purchase 788.00 TN 3,304,800 3,304,800 4,193.91 4,193.91 Pier Steel 68.0 TN 9,058.82 616,000 Superstructure Steel Purchase 720.0 TN 3,734.44 2,688,800 (4 Load &Haul Steel From Rail Yard 40.00 LOADS 200 15,487 6,099 21,586 5.00 387.17 152.47 $39.64 Prod=1.80 LOADS/hour (18.00 LOADS/day),5.0QO0OMH/LOADS,0.20 LOADSMMH,22.22 hour (2.22 days) Load &Haul Steel From Rail Yard 1.00 EA 971.35 Crane Operator Class-A 1.0 80.85 1,797 lronworker Foreman 1.0 81.79 1,818 lronworker 40 76.64 6,812 Highway Trick Driver 3.0 75.80 5,060 40 Ton Hydraulic Crane (Grove700)1.0 62.64 1,392 3/4 Ton Pickup Truck 4x4 4.0 17.20 382 Tractor &Hi-Trailer 3.0 64.87 4,325 [50 Pier Erection 68.00 TN 350 27,060 9,991 37,051 .5.15 397.94 146.93 544.87 Prod=1.36 TN/hour (13.80 TN/day),5.147MH/TN,0.19 TN/MH,50.00 hour (5.00 days) Pier Erection 1.00 EA 741.02 Crane Operator Class-A 1.0 80.85 4,043 tronworker Foreman 1.0 81.79 4,090 tronworker 4.0 76.64 15,328 Oiler 1.0 72.00 3,600 400 Amp Diesel Welder 1.0 16.99 850 Acatylane Cutting Torch 1.0 485 243 10 KW Generator Set (Gas)1.0 6.99 350 375 CFM Diesel Compressor 1.0 36.08 1,804 150 Ton Crawler Crane (American 9260)1.0 1771 5,886 3/4 Ton Pickup Truck 4x4 1.0 17.20 860 [eo iy Erection 720.00 TN 2,520 197,053 104,213 301,266 3.50 273.69 144.74 418.43 Prod=2.00 TN/hour (20.00 TN/day},3.SCOMH/TN,0.29 TN/MH,360.00 hour (36.00 days) Launch Bridge Superstructure 1.00 EA 836.85 Crane Operator Class-A 1.0 80.85 29,106 Dozer Operator 1.0 78.17 28,141 lronworker Foreman 1.0 81.79 29,444 Ironworker 40 76.64 110,362 305 Hsp Bulldozer (Cat D8 )1.0 144.73 52,103 400 Amp Diesel Welder 1.0 16.99 6,116 Acetylene Cutting Torch 1.0 4.85 1,746 10 KW Generator Set (Gas)1.0 6.99 2,516 375 CFM Diesel Compressor 4.0 36.08 42,989 40 Ton Hydraulic Crane (Grove700)1.0 62.64 22,550 3/4 Ton Pickup Truck 4x4 1.0 17.20 6,192 336.11 4-espenter Permanent Access Road-Long Span Bridge MP17:3-=e 290.00 -FF 1,045 td par 53429 <0 11,910 «*1,164,023- Ed 6.71 §13.42 184.24 41.07 4,013.87 4,752.60 [17.3 Bridge C 290,00 FT 4,945 148,893 $3,429 11,910 1,164,023 1,378,255 6.71 $13.42 184.24 41.07 4,013.87 4,752.60 [zo Concrete Abutments 64.00 CY 657 49,269 8,123 9,832 20,672 87,897 10.27 769.84 126.93 153.63 323.00 4,373.40 [10 Concrete Footer 24.00 CY 168 12,544 2,395 2,180 7,752 24,871 7.02 $22.68 99.79 90.83 323.00 1,036.31 fe Sulld Forms,700,00 se =[32d Pi Tee0 my 80 0,08 6.40 0.68 5.60 12.68 Prod=84.00 SF/hour (840.00 SF/day),0.083MH/SF,12.00 SF/MH,3.57 hour (0.36 days) Fabricate Gang Formwork 1.00 EA 594.33 Boomtruck Operator 1.0 75.90 274 Labourer 1.0 68.41 244 Carpenter Foreman 1.0 80.00 286 Carpenter 40 78.33 1,119 3/4 Ton Crew Cab Truck 4x4 1.0 18.18 65 15 Ton Pitman Boom Truck 1.0 38.52 138 300.0 SF §.60 1,880 wnemnetwaines==-----_a 8 enEstimate:10-1-2013 -PERMANENT ACCESS ROAD CONTRACT Currency:USD-United States-Doltar[item Description L_Quantity "|uom J Rate]ManHrs Labor [Equip [Job mat Perm Mat [||Total Cost &Moye For 2300.00 SE a8 EIT 26)ray oe me 0.143 9.90 1.20 1.50 12.60Prod=84.00 SF/hour (840.00 SF/day),0.131MH/SF,7.64 SF/MH,3.57 hour (0.36 days) Set Strip Retaining Walls 1.00 EA 932.78 Crane Operator Class-A 0.5 80.85 144 Labourer 3.0 68.41 733 ' Carpenter Foreman 1.0 80.00 286 Carpenter 6.0 78.33 1,679 Oiler 05 72.00 429 150 Ton Crawier Crane (American 9260)05 117.71 210 3/4 Ton Crew Cab Truck 4x4 1.0 18.18 65 5 Ton Flat Bed Truck 1.0 24.11 86 Set Strip Form Material 300.0 SF 1.50 450 js ui 20 ia ace Concrate Super Sack ee00 CY is,2,39)1933 2400 12.23:3.06 220.86 63.88 225.00 $09.74 Prod=3.60 CY/hour (36.00 CY/day),3.056MH/CY,0.33 CY/MH,6.67 hour (0.67 days) Mix &Place Super Sack Concrete 1.00 EA 1025.08 Loader Operator 1.0 80.85 539 Concrete Foreman 10 77.39 516 Concrete Labourer 3.0 68.41 1,368 Vibrator Operator 2.0 68.41 912 Concrete Truck Spotter 4.0 68.41 456 Carpenter 1.0 78.33 522 Concrete Pump Operator 1.0 68.32 455 Concrete Truck Driver 1.0 78.75 §32 8 CY Concrete Transit Mixer 1.0 69.33 462 124 YPH Trailer Mounted Concrete Pump 4.0 94.98 633 2-CY Concrete Bucket (Gravity)1.0 0.77 5 Concrete Vibrator-Normal 2.0 0.71 9 10 KW Generator Set (Gas)2.0 6.99 93 Cat TH63 Forkilft 1.0 32.30 215 3/4 Ton Pickup Truck 4x4 1.0 17.20 115 Super Sack Concrete Mix 24.0 CY 225.00 5,400 Pr"Biace Remora ales 2200L0 Lo vz)_nee ye Zoe Ta 0.01 0.43 0.07 0.56 1.06 Prod=0.71 ton/hour (7.13 ton/day),14.228MHAton,0.09 ton/MH,2.95 hour (0.29 days) Place Reinforcing Steel 1.00 EA 709.18 Crane Operator Class-A as 80.85 119 Labourer 1.0 68.41 202 lronworker Foreman 1.0 80.00 236 lronworker 5.0 76.64 1,129 Oiler 05 72.00 106 150 Ton Crawler Crane (American 9260)05 17.71 173 3/4 Ton Crew Cab Truck 4x4 10 18.18 54 5 Ton Flat Bed Truck 1.0 24.41 cal Supply Fabricated Rebar 4,200.0 LB 0.56 2,352 aasckorrr ESE z 6 | 0.01 0.69 0.69 Prod=226.00 SF/hour (2,260.00 SF/day),0.0O9MH/SF,113.00 SF/MH,0.88 hour (0.09 days) Finish Concrete with Trowel 1.00 EA 156.66 Cement Finisher 20 78.33 139 Koda conciets NSY Z (Leona eet PaP 0.00 0.38 0.10 0.48 Prod=417,25 SF/hour (4,172.50 SF/day),O.QOSMH/SF,208,63 SF/MH,1.20 hour (0.12 days) Apply Concrete Curing Agent 1.00 EA 156.66 Cement Finisher 2.0 78.33 188 Curing Agent per sf 600.0 SF 0.10 50 Baal Poin OOO Sr.3 (33 = 0.01 078 0.78 Prod=200,00 SF/hour (2,000.00 SF/day),0.010MH/SF,100.00 SF/MH,1.50 hour (0.15 days) Point &Patch Concrete 1.00 EA 156.66 Cement Finisher 20 78.33 235 [20 Concrete Back Wall &Wings 40.00 CY 489 36,725 5,728 7,652 12,920 63,026 12.22 918.13 143.21 491.31 323.00 1,575.65 timate Line Detail +=rere =ele reed -not Estimate:10-1-2013 -PERMANENT ACCESS ROAD CONTRACT Currency:USD-United States-Doflar Item Description [Quantity 7 vom [|Rate |Manhrs |Labor |Equip ]job mat |PermMat |Sub/Plug |Total Cost bul Far 868,09 SE Zz 5558 pee 86,00 0.08 6.40 0.67 5.60 12.68 Prod=84.00 SF/hour (840.00 SF/day),0.083MH/SF,12.00 SF/MH,10.33 hour (1.03 days) Fabricate Gang Formwork 1.00 EA 594.33 Boomtruck Operator 1.0 75.90 784 Labourer 1.6 68.41 707 Carpenter Foreman 1.0 80.00 827 Carpenter 4.0 78.33 3,238 3/4 Ton Crew Cab Truck 4x4 1.0 18.18 188 15 Ton Pitman Boom Truck 1.0 38.52 398 Supply Wood Form Wood Walers &Strongbacks 868.0 SF 5.60 4,861 Ee Set Sinp &Move Forme RECESS PL Thies 2.050 24,PRI 0.13 9.90 1.20 1.50 12.60. Prod=84.00 SF/hour (840.00 SF/day),0.131MH/SF,7.64 SF/MH,20.87 hour (2.07 days) Set Strip Retaining Wails 1.00 EA 932.78 Crane Operator Class-A 05 80.85 835 Labourer 3.0 88.41 4,241 Carpenter Foreman 1.0 80.00 1,653 Carpenter 6.0 78.33 9,713 Oiler 05 72.00 744 +50 Ton Crawler Crane (American 9260)os 117.71 1,216 3/4 Ton Crew Cab Truck 4x4 1.0 18.18 376 §Ton Flat Bed Truck 1.0 24.11 498 Set Strip Form Material 1,736.0 SF 1.50 2,604 and Place Conc Sac!wi oo CY 122,6,834 me 3,000,Ay)70 3.06 220.86 63.88 225.00 $09.74 Prod=3.60 CY/hour (36.00 CY/day),3.056MH/CY,0.33 CY/MH,11.11 hour (1.11 days) Mix &Place Super Sack Concrete 1.00 EA 1025.08 Loader Operator 1.0 80.85 898 Concrete Foreman 1.0 77.39 860 Concrete Labourer 3.0 68.41 2,280 Vibrator Operator 2.0 68.41 4,520 Concrete Truck Spotter 1.0 68.41 760 Carpenter 1.0 78.33 870 Concrete Pump Operator 1.0 68.32 759 Concrete Truck Driver 1.0 79.75 886 8 CY Concrete Transit Mixer 1.0 69.33 770 124 YPH Trailer Mounted Concrete Pump 1.0 94.98 1,055 2-CY Concrete Bucket (Gravity)1.0 0.77 9 Concrete Vibrator-Normal 2.0 0.71 16 10 KW Generator Set (Gas)2.0 6.99 155, Cat TH63 Forklift 1.0 32.30 359 3/4 Ton Pickup Truck 4x4 1.0 17.20 191 Super Sack Concrete Mix 40.0 CY 225.00 9,000 [Piece Remioreng Steel 7000.00 LB 39 PALA ar HA wR: 0.04 0.43 0.07 0.56 1.06 Prod=0.71 ton/hour (7.13 ton/day),11.228MH/ton,0.09 ton/MH,4.91 hour (0.49 days) Place Reinforcing Steel .1.00 EA 709.18 Crane Operator Class-A 0.5 80.85 199 Labourer 1.0 68.41 336 Ironworker Foreman 1.0 80.00 393 tronworker 5.0 76.64 1,882 Oiler Os 72.00 77 150 Ton Crawler Crane (American 9260)0.5 117.71 289 3/4 Ton Crew Cab Truck 4x4 1.0 18.18 89 5 Ton Flat Bed Truck 1.0 24.11 418 Supply Fabricated Rebar 7,000.0 LB 0.56 3,920 t Ficish Concrete .140,00 +fs)-2 2 0.01 0.69 0.69 Prod=226.00 SF/hour (2,260.00 SF/day),O.CO9MH/SF,113.00 SF/MH,0.62 hour (0.06 days) Finish Concrete with Trowel 1.00 EA 156.66 Cement Finisher 2.0 78.33 97 EiGive Console ERT ACTA 3 74 ms ce 0.00 0.38 0.10 0.48 Prod=417.25 SF/hour (4,172.50 SF/day),O.QOSMH/SF,208,63 SF/MH,4.50 hour (0.45 days) Esti 10-1-2013 -PERMANENT ACCESS ROAD CONTRACT Currency:USD-United States-Doltar|Item Description {Quantity ["uom |Rate |ManHrs [..*__Labor I Equip.|_JobMat_-|_PermMat |Sub/Plug I Totat Cost Apply Concrete Curing Agent 1.00 EA 156.66 Cement Finisher 2.0 78.33 704 Curing Agent per sf 1,876.0 SF 0.10 188 |aT AT IN REA sre i =mE 0.01 0.78 0.78 Prod=200.00 SF/hour (2,000.00 SF/day),0.010MH/SF,100.00 SF/MH,8.68 hour (0.87 days) Point &Patch Concrete 1.00 EA 156.66 Cement Finisher 2.0 78.33 1,360 [30 Concrete Piers Footer 37.00 CY 237 17,633 3,541 2,077 11,951 35,202 6.42 476.57 95.70 56.14 323.00 951.41 [10 Concrete FooterPiers 4 Ea 37.00 CY 237 17,633 3,541 2,077 41,951 35,202) 6.42 476.57 95.70 56.14 323.00 951.41aeWT:Ia ra 12 FROIN KE PGE|0.08 6.40 0.67 5.60 12.68 Prod=84.00 SF/hour (840.00 SF/day),0.083MH/SF,12.00 SF/MH,3.40 hour (0.34 days) Fabricate Gang Formwork 1.00 EA 594.33 Boomtruck Operator 1.0 75.90 258 Labourer 1.0 68.41 232 Carpenter Foreman 1.0 80,00 272 Carpenter 4.0 78,33 1,065 3/4 Ton Crew Cab Truck 4x4 1.0 18.18 62 15 Ton Pitman Boom Truck 1.0 38.52 131 Supply Wood Form Wood Walers &Strongbacks 285.4 SF 5.60 1,598 SRST TES OTT EE A NROOTXT!=r =saa 0.20 15.12 1.84 4.50 18.46 Prod=55.00 SF/hour (550.00 SF/day),0.200MH/SF,5.00 SF/MH,5.19 hour (0.52 days) Set Strip Retaining Walls 1.00 EA 932.78 Crane Operator Class-A 05 80.85 210 Labourer 3.0 68.41 1,065 Carpenter Foreman 1.0 80.00 415 Carpenter 6.0 78.33 2,439 Oller 0.5 72.00 187 150 Ton Crawler Crane (American 9260)05 117.71 305 3/4 Ton Crew Cab Truck 4x4 1.0 18.18 94 5 Ton Flat Bed Truck 1.0 2441 125 Set Strip Form Material 285.4 SF 1.50 428 Eiizirorigce concrete Super sack 3700 GY.Te Plu rR enema 18.66 :3.06 220.86 63.88 225.00 509.74 Prod=3.60 CY/shour (36.00 CY/day),3.0S56MH/CY,0.33 CY/MH,10.28 hour (1.03 days) Mix &Place Super Sack Concrete 1.00 EA 1025,08 Loader Operator 1.0 80.85 831 Concrete Foreman 1.0 77.39 795 Concrete Labourer 3.0 68.41 2,109 Vibrator Operator 2.0 68.41 1,406 Concrete Truck Spotter 1.0 68.41 703 Carpenter 1.0 78.33 805 Concrete Pump Operator 1.0 68,32 702 Concrete Truck Driver 1.0 79.75 820 8 CY Concrete Transit Mixer 1.0 69.33 713 124 YPH Trailer Mounted Concrete Pump 1.0 94.98 976 2-CY Concrete Bucket (Gravity)1.0 0.77 8 Concrete Vibrator-Normal 2.0 O71 45 10 KW Generator Set (Gas)2.0 6.99 144 Cat TH63 Forklift 1.0 32.30 332 3/4 Ton Pickup Truck 4x4 1.0 17.20 177 Super Sack Concrete Mix 37.0 CY 225.00 8,325 _renee ld Zee 260 Siro Bea 0.01 0.43 0.07 0.56 1.06 Prod=0.71 ton/hour (7.13 ton/day),11.228MH/ton,0.09 ton/MH,4.54 hour (0.45 days) Place Reinforcing Steel 1.00 EA 709.18 Crane Operator Class-A 0.5 80.85 184 Labourer 1.0 68.41 311 Ironworker Foreman 1.0 80.00 364 ironworker 5.0 76.84 1,741 Oiler 05 72.00 164 =Estimate Line Detail a "7 Estimate:10-1-2013 -PERMANENT ACCESS ROAD CONTRACT 'Currency:USD-United States-Dollar Item Description I Quantity |UOM Rate ManHrs i Labor Equip i JobMat | PernMat |Sub/Plug |Total Cost 150 Ton Crawler Crane (American 9260)0.5 417.71 267 3/4 Ton Crew Cab Truck 4x4 1.0 18.18 83 5 Ton Flat Bed Truck 1.0 24.11 110 Supply Fabricated Rebar 6,475.0 LB 0.56 3,626 sh i 2.86 Se wee z es)14: 0.01 0.69 0.69! Prod=226.00 SF/hour (2,260.00 SF/day),0.QO9MH/SF,113.00 SF/AMH,0.90 hour (0.09 days) Finish Concrete with Trowel 1.00 EA 156.66 Cement Finisher 2.0 78.33 141 fo le,Conciaie ONT Zz "37 at z 0.00 0.38 0.10 0.48 Prod=417.25 SF/hour (4,172.50 SF/day),O.GOSMH/SF,208.63 SF/MH,1.22 hour (0.12 days) Apply Concrete Curing Agent 1.00 EA 156.66 Cement Finisher 2.0 78.33 191 Curing Agent per sf 509.6 SF 0.10 54 LZaich &Poin,B54 z Zs mney 0.01 0.78 0.78 Prod=200.00 SF/hour (2,000.00 SF/day),0.010MH/SF,100.00 SF/MH,1.43 hour (0.14 days) Point &Patch Concrete 1.00 EA 156.66 Cement Finisher 2.0 78.33 224 [40 Superstructure &Pier Steel Purchase 270.00 TN 1,131,400 1,131,400 4,190.37 4,190.37 Superstructure Stee!Purchase 258.0 TN 3,765.12 971,400 Pier Steet 12.0 TN 13,333.33 160,000 [45 Load &Haul Steel From Rail Yard 14.00 LOADS 70 5,420 2,135 7,555 §.00 387.17 152.47 539.64 Prod=1.80 LOADS/hour (18.00 LOADS/day),5.0QQOMH/LOADS,0.20 LOADS/MH,7.78 hour (0.78 days} Load &Haul Stee!From Rail Yard 1.00 EA 971.35 Crane Operator Class-A 1.0 80.85 629 fronworkar Foreman 1.0 81.79 636 fronworker 4.0 76.64 2,384 Highway Truck Driver 3.0 75.90 4,771 40 Ton Hydraulic Crane (Grove700)1.0 62.64 487 3/4 Ton Pickup Truck 4x4 1.0 17.20 134 Tractor &Hi-Trailer 3.0 64.87 1,514 [50 Pier Erection 12.00 TN 70 5,412 1,998 7,410 5.83 451.00 166.52 617.52 Prod=1.20 TN/hour (12.00 TN/day),5.833MH/TN,0.17 TN/MH,10.00 hour (1.00 days) Pier Erection 1.00 EA 741.02 Crane Operator Class-A 1.0 80.85 809 \ronworker Foreman 1.0 81.79 818 lronworker 4.0 76.64 3,066 Oiler 1.0 72.00 720 400 Amp Diesel Welder 1.0 16.99 170 Acetylene Cutting Torch 1.0 4.85 49 10 KW Generator Set (Gas)4.0 6.99 70 375 CFM Diesel Compressor 1.0 36.08 361 150 Ton Crawler Crane (American 9260}1.0 117.71 1,177 3/4 Ton Pickup Truck 4x4 1.0 17.20 172 [eo Superstructure Erection 258.00 TN 910 71,158 37,632 108,791 3.53 275.81 145.86 421.67 Prod=1.98 TN/hour (19.85 TN/day),3.527MH/TN,0.28 TN/MH,130.00 hour (13.00 days) Launch Bridge Superstructure 1.00 EA 836.85 Crane Operator Class-A 1.0 80.85 10,511 Dozer Operator 1.0 7817 10,162 Ironworker Foreman 1.0 81.79 10,633 Ironworker 4.0 76.64 39,853 305 Hsp Bulldozer (Cat D8 )1.0 144.73 18,815 400 Amp Diesel Welder 1.0 16.99 2,209 Acetylene Cutting Torch 1.0 4.85 631 10 KW Generator Set (Gas)1.0 6.99 909 375 CFM Diesel Compressor 1.0 36.08 4,690 62.64 8,14349TonHydraulicCrane(Grove700) 'Estimate Line Detail -aan Estimate:10-1-2013 -PERMANENT ACCESS ROAD CONTRACT Currency:USD-United States-Dollar ner nin an -_e - Description [._Quantiy [uom [|Rate|ManHrs |Labor I Equip |JobMat |PermMat |.”Sub/Plug I Total Cost3/4 Ton Pickup Truck 4x4 1.0 17.20 2,236 s Road-Leng Spen Bridge MP21.6 =mrenee 816,00 FTos smeieee-§,182 <a 242,348 we-ote-96,033%13,908-wewrste-2,378,622-0 >2.730 6.11 469.67 186.11 26.95 4,609.54 §,292.27f2u.6 Bridge C:i 516.00 FT 3,152 242,348 96,033 13,908 2,378,522 2,730,811 6.11 469.67 186.11 26.95 4,609.54 :§,292.27[20 Concrete Abutments 64.00 CY 657 49,269 8,123 9,832 20,672 87,897 10.27 769.84 126.93 153.63 323.00 1,373.40[10 Concrete Footer 24.00 CY 168 12,544 2,395 2,180 7,752 24,871 7.02 522.68 99.79 90.83 323.00 1,036.31BOEuidForms;300.005 2 7920 20,LO8R a 260 0.08 6.40 0.67 5.60 12.68 Prod=84.00 SF/hour (840.00 SF/day),O.083MH/SF,12.00 SF/MH,3.57 hour (0.36 days} Fabricate Gang Formwork 4.00 EA 594,33 Boomtruck Operator 1.0 75.90 271 Labourer 1.0 68.41 244 Carpenter Foreman 1.0 80.00 286 Carpenter 4.0 78.33 1,119 3/4 Ton Crew Cab Truck 4x4 1.0 18.18 65 15 Ton Pitman Boom Truck 1.0 38.52 138 Supply Wood Form Wood Walers &Strongbacks 300.0 SF 5.60 1,680 ECSaE Sule &Yioxe Fours,30000 St eg Zo.SOU]etna 70,ei 0.13 9.90 4.20 1.50 12.60 Prod=84.00 SF/hour (840.00 SF/day),0.131MH/SF,7.64 SF/MH,3.57 hour (0.36 days) Set Strip Retaining Walls 1.00 EA 932.78 Crane Operator Class-A 0.5 80.85 144 Labourer 3.0 68.41 733 Carpenter Foreman |1.0 60.00 286 Carpenter 6.0 78.33 4,679 Oiler 0.5 72.00 129 150 Ton Crawler Crane (American 9260)0.5 117.71 210 3/4 Ton Crew Cab Truck 4x4 1.0 18.18 65 5 Ton Flat Bed Truck 1.0 24.41 86 Set Strip Form Material 300.0 SF 1.50 450 oe Conor a0 PK :A F30L RD :ee :: enna VX: 3.06 220.86 63.88 225.00 509.74 Prod=3.60 CY/hour (36.00 CY/day),3.056MH/CY,0.33 CY/MH,6.67 hour (0.67 days) Mix &Place Super Sack Concrete 1.00 EA 1025.08 Loader Operator 1.0 80.85 539 Concrete Foreman 1.0 77.39 $16 Concrete Labourer 3.0 68.41 1,368 Vibrator Operator . 2.0 68.41 912 Concrete Truck Spotter 1.0 68.41 456 Carpenter 1.0 78.33 522 Concrete Pump Operator 1.0 68.32 455 Concrete Truck Driver 1.0 79.75 532 8 CY Concrete Transit Mixer 1.0 69.33 462 424 YPH Trailer Mounted Concrete Pump 1.0 94.98 633 2-CY Concrete Bucket (Gravity)1.0 0.77 5 Concrete Vibrator-Normal 2.0 0.71 9 10 KW Generator Set (Gas):2.0 6.99 93 Cat TH63 Forklift 1.0 32.30 215 34 Ton Pickup Truck 4x4 1.0 17.20 115 Super Sack Concrete Mix 24.0 CY 225.00 5,400 %0000 LE VRE "Toe,2,Ze 4.44 0.01 0.43 0.07 0.56 4.06 Prod=0.71 tonfhour (7.13 ton/day),11.228MHiton,0.09 ton/MH,2.95 haur (0.29 days) Piace Reinforcing Steel .1.00 EA 709.18 Crane Operator Class-A-0.5 80.85 149 Labourer 1.0 68.41 202 Ironworker Foreman 1.0 80.00 236 lronworker 5.0 76.64 4,129 Oiler 05 72.00 106 150 Ton Crawter Crane (American 9260)05 117,71 173 3/4 Ton Crew Cab Truck 4x4 1.0 18.18 54 5 Ton Flat Bed Truck 1.0 24.11 71 Supply Fabricated Rebar 4,200.0 LB 0.56 2,352 Estien:oats ene --ee adnan Estimate:10-1-2013 -PERMANENT ACCESS ROAD CONTRACT Currency:USD-United States-Dottar Item |Description |Quantity |UOM Rate ManHrs I Labor I Equip |JobMat |PermMat.|Sub/Plug Total Cost Linish Concrele 7200,0g SF Z 739 mE 0.01 0.69 0.69, Prod=226.00 SF/hour (2,260.00 SF/day),O.OO9MH/SF,113.00 SF/MH,0.88 hour (0.09 days) Finish Concrete with Trowel 1.00 EA 156.66 Cement Finisher 2.0 78.33 139 Etre Concrete 500.00 SF ri 5 0 0.00 0.38 0.10 0.48 Prod=417.25 SF/hour (4,172.50 SF/day),0.OOSMH/SF,208.63 SF/MH,1.20 hour (0.12 days) Apply Concrete Curing Agent 1.00 EA 156.66 Cement Finisher 2.0 78.33 188 Curing Agent per sf 800.0 SF 0.10 50 peecE a z re Za .0.01 0.78 0.78 Prod=200.00 SF/hour (2,000.00 SF/day),0.Q10MH/SF,100.00 SF/MH,1.50 hour (0.15 days) Point &Patch Concrete 1.00 EA 156.66 Cement Finisher 2.0 78.33 235 [20__Concrete Back Wail &Wings ,40.00 CY 489 36,725 5,728 7,652 12,920 63,026 12.22 918.13 143.21 191.31 323.00 1,575.65 EE Beig Fors ep.00.TE eS 586 rs Tie 0.08 6.40 0.67 5.60 12.68 Prod=84.00 SF/hour (840.00 SF/day),0.083MH/SF,12.00 SF/MH,10.33 hour (1.03 days) Fabricate Gang Formwork 1.00 EA 594.33 Boomtruck Operator 1.0 75.90 784 Labourer 1.0 68.41 707 Carpenter Foreman 1.0 80.00 827 Carpenter 40 78.33 3,238 3/4 Ton Crew Cab Truck 4x4 1.0 18.18 188 15 Ton Pitman Boom Truck 1.0 38.52 398 Supply Wood Form Wood Walers &Strangbacks 868.0 SF 5.60 4,861 [Set Strips Move Foons Tb.00 SF wri Tig FA)2008 0.13 9.90 1.20 1.50 12.60 Prod=84.00 SF/hour (840.00 SF/day),0.131MH/SF,7.64 SF/MH,20.67 hour (2.07 days) Set Strip Retaining Walls 1.00 EA 932.78 Crane Operator Class-A 05 80.85 835 Labourer 3.0 68.41 4,241 Carpenter Foreman 1.0 80.00 1,653 Carpenter 6.0 78.33 9,713 Oiler 05 72.00 744 150 Ton Crawler Crane (American 9260)os 17.71 1,216 . 3/4 Ton Crew Cab Truck 4x4 1.0 18.18 376 §Ton Flat Bed Truck 1.0 24.11 498 Set Strip Form Maternal 1,736.0 SF 1.50 2,604 [iz and Place Gonctete Supa:Sack 40.00,Gi.t2z Book,ra eae HERD | 3.06 220.86 63.88 225.00 $09.74 Prod=3.60 CY/hour (36.00 CY/day),3.056MH/CY,0.33 CY/MH,11.11 hour (1.11 days) Mix &Place Super Sack Concrete 1.00 EA 1025.08 Loader Operator 1.0 80.85 898 Concrete Foreman .1.0 77.39 860 Concrete Labourer 3.0 68.41 2,280 Vibrator Operator 2.0 68.41 1,520 Concrete Truck Spotter 1.0 68.41 760 Carpenter 1.0 78.33 870 Concrete Pump Operator 1.0 68.32 759 Concrete Truck Driver 1.0 79.75 886 8 CY Concrete Transit Mixer 1.0 69.33 770 124 YPH Trailer Mounted Concrete Pump 1.0 94.98 1,055 2-CY Concrete Bucket (Gravity)1.0 O77 9 Concrete Vibrator-Normal 2.0 0.71 16 10 KW Generator Set (Gas)20 6.99 155 Cat TH63 Forklift 1.0 32.30 359 3/4 Ton Pickup Truck 4x4 1.0 17,20 191 Super Sack Concrete Mix 40.0 CY 225.00 9,000 Reinforcing ste £000.00,L8 antennae.33.PL ae 497 PET)emake: <=rane aaaEstimate:10-1-2013 -PERMANENT ACCESS ROAD CONTRACT Currency:USO-United States-Dollar {tem I Description {Quantity |uom |Rate |ManHrs Labor I Equip [JobMat |.PermMat |I Total Cost 0.01 0.43 0.07 0.56 1.06 Prod=0.71 ton/hour (7.13 ton/day),11.228MH/ton,0.09 ton/MH,4.91 hour (0.49 days) Place Reinforcing Steet 1.00 EA 709.18 Crane Operator Class-A 0.5 80.85 199 Labourer 1.0 68.41 336 lronworker Foreman 1.0 80.00 393 lronworker 5.0 76.84 1,882 Oiler 0s 72.00 177 150 Ton Crawler Crane (American 9260)0.5 417.71 289 3/4 Ton Crew Cab Truck 4x4 1.0 18.18 89 §Ton Flat Bed Truck 1.0 24.11 118 Supply Fabricated Rebar 7,000.0 LB 0.56 3,920 on TTT '--TOOT SE c z "ei 0.01 0.69 0.69 Prod=226.00 SF/hour (2,260.00 SF/day),0.COSMH/SF,113.00 SF/MH,0.62 hour (0.06 days} Finish Concrete with Trowel 1.00 EA 156.66 Cement Finisher 2.0 78.33 97 RIES i wi es 0.00 0.38 0.10 0.48 Prod=417.25 SF/fhour (4,172.50 SF/day),O.COSMH/SF,208.63 SF/MH,4.50 hour (0.45 days} Apply Concrete Curing Agent 1.00 EA 156.66 Cement Finisher 2.0 78.33 704 Curing Agent per sf 1,876.0 SF 0.10 188 fa Lieu sr i.Ta00 =eS? 0.01 0.78 0.78 Prod=200.00 SF/hour (2,000.00 SF/day),0.C10MH/SF,100.00 SF/MH,8.68 hour (0.87 days) Point &Patch Concrete 1.00 EA 156.66 Cement Finisher 2.0 78.33 1,360 [30 Concrete Piers Footer 72.60 CY 466 34,599 6,948 4,076 23,450 69,072 6.42 476.57 95.70 56.14 323.00 951.41 [10 Concrete FooterPiers 4 Ea 72.60 CY 466 34,599 6,948 4,076 23,450 69,072 6.42 476.57 95.70 56.14 323.00 951.41 oeTT a eee SR ana z XT ee =i 0.08 6.40 0.67 5.60 12.68 Prod=84.00 SF/hour (840.00 SF/day),0.083MH/SF,12.00 SF/MH,6.67 hour (0.67 days) Fabricata Gang Formwork 1.00 EA $94.33 Boomtruck Operator 1.0 75.90 506 Labourer 1.0 68.41 456 Carpenter Foreman 1.0 80.00 533 Carpenter 40 78.33 2,089 3/4 Ton Crew Cab Truck 4x4 10 18.18 121 15 Ton Pitman Boom Truck 1.0 38.52 257 Supply Wood Form Wood Walers &Strongbacks 560.0 SF 5.60 3,136 ae TASTER IT ar i ro A aR 5 . 0.20 16.12 1.84 1.50 18.46 Prod=55.00 SF/hour (650.00 SF/day),0.200MH/SF,5.00 SF/MH,10,18 hour (1.02 days) Set Strip Retaining Walls 1.00 EA 932.78 Crane Operator Class-A 0.5 80.85 412 Labourer 3.0 68.41 2,090 Carpenter Foreman 1.0 80.00 815 Carpenter 6.0 78.33 4,788 Oiler 05 72.00 367 150 Ton Crawler Crane (American 9260)056 417.71 599 3/4 Ton Crew Cab Truck 4x4 1.0 18.18 185 5 Ton Flat Bed Truck 1.0 24.11 245 Set Strip Form Material 560.0 SF 4.50 840 c.rete Super perenne ATs aaet Loon we,935,4 630 :34,00 3.06 220,86 63.88 225.00 509.74 Prod=3.60 CY/hour (36.00 CY/day),3.056MH/CY,0.33 CY/MH,20.17 hour (2.02 days) Mix &Place Super Sack Concrete 1.00 EA 1025.08 Loader Operator 1.0 80.85 1,630 Concrete Foreman 1.0 77.39 1,561 Concrete Labourer 3.0 68.41 4,139 Vibrator Operator 2.0 68.41 2,759 £atimate Line Detail -- Estimate:10-1-2013 -PERMANENT ACCESS ROAD CONTRACT Currency:USD-United States-Dottar Item I Description |Quantiy |Uom |Rate Mantrs Equip | JobMat =| PermMat |.SubiPlug I Total Cost Concrete Truck Spotter 1.0 68.41 1,380 Carpenter 1.0 78.33 1,580 Concrete Pump Operator 1.0 68.32 1,378 Concrete Truck Driver 1.0 73.75 1,608 8 CY Concrete Transit Mixer 1.0 69.33 1,398 124 YPH Trailer Mounted Concrete Pump 1.0 94.98 1,915 2-CY Concrete Bucket (Gravity)1.0 0.77 16 Concrete Vibrator-Normal 2.0 071 29 10 KW Generator Set (Gas)2.0 6.99 282 Cat TH63 Forklift 4.0 32.30 651 3/4 Ton Pickup Truck 4x4 1.0 17.20 347 Super Sack Concrete Mix 72.8 CY 225.00 16,335 [nablase Reinforcing Steg.ros.00 Le wal Sih 1902 :"Ll leon FERED 0.01 0.43 0.07 0.56 1.06 Prod#0.71 ton/hour (7.13 ton/day),11.228MH/on,0.09 ton/MH,8.92 hour (0.89 days) Place Reinforcing Steel 1.00 EA 709.18 Crane Operator Class-A 05 80.85 360 Labourer 1.0 68.41 610 lronworker Foreman 10 80.00 713 lronwarker 5.0 76.64 3,417 Oiler O5 72.00 321 150 Ton Crawler Crane (American 9260)05 117.71 525 3/4 Ton Crew Cab Truck 4x4 1,0 18.18 162 5 Ton Flat Bed Truck 1.0 24.11 215 Supply Fabricated Rebar 12,705.0 LB 0.56 TANS Cophish Sensors TOO SE wi Zi z 0.01 0,69 0.69 Prod=226.00 SF/hour (2,260.00 SF/day),O.OO9MH/SF,113.00 SF/MH,1.77 hour (0.18 days) Finish Concrete with Trowel 1.00 EA 156.66 Cement Finisher 2.0 78.33 277 [Sire Concrete Tn00ug SE A a gy a 0.00 0.38 0.10 0.48 Prod=417.25 SF/hour (4,172.50 SF/day),O.0OSMH/SF,208.63 SF/MH,2.40 hour (0.24 days) Apply Concrete Curing Agent 1.00 EA 156.66 Cement Finisher 2.0 78.33 375 Curing Agent per sf+1,000.0 SF 0.10 .400 EPatch &Point 36000 oF J re aa 0.01 0.78 0.78 Prod=200.00 SF/hour (2,000.00 SF/day),0.010MH/SF,100.00 SF/MH,2.80 hour (0.28 days) Point &Patch Concrete 1.00 EA 156.66 Cement Finisher 2.0 78.33 439 [40 s &Pier Steel Purchase 524.00 TN 2,334,400 2,334,400 4,454.96 4,454.96 Pier Steel 20.0 TN 14,500.00 290,000 Superstructure Steel Purchase 504.0 TN 4,056.35 2,044,400 [45 Load &Haut Steel From Rail Yard 27.00 LOADS 135 10,454 4117 14,570 5.00 387.17 152.47 539.64 Prod=1.80 LOADS/nour (18.00 LOADS/day),5.0Q00OMH/LOADS,0.20 LOADS/MH,15.00 hour (1.50 days) Load &Haul Steel From Rail Yard 1.00 EA 977.35 Crane Operator Class-A 1.0 80.85.1,213 lronworker Foreman 10 81.79 1,227 Ironworker 4.0 76.64 4,598 . Highway Truck Driver 3.0 75.90 3,416 40 Ton Hydraulic Crane (Grove700)1.0 62.64 940 3/4 Ton Pickup Truck 4x4 1.0 17.20 258 Tractor &Hi-Trailer 3.0 64.87 2,919 {50 Pier Erection 20.00 TN 17 9,020 3,330 12,350 5.83 451.00 466.52 617.52 Prod=1.20 TN/hour (12.00 TN/day),5.833MH/TN,0.17 TN/MH,18.67 hour (1.67 days) Pier Erection 1.00 EA 741.02 Crane Operator Class-A 1.0 80.85 1,348 ironworker Foreman 1.0 81.79 1,363 iranworker 4.0 76.64 5,109