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HomeMy WebLinkAboutAEA Regulation Study-EPS 2012AEA Regulation Resource Study Draft Results By Electric Power Systems,Inc. February 24,2012 Noes Power S ystemsinc. Consulting Engineers ©Introduction -Study Background -Southcentral Alaskan utilties have limited regulation capabilities -The addition of intermittent renewable resources will exacerbate this problem -Changing Railbelt generation will decrease available regulation Slide 2 Introduction -Study Goals -Review current regulation capabilities of the Southcentral utilities -Study new regulation needs based on intermittent wind resource -Determine optimal technology to provide regulation Slide 3 study Assumptions Natural gas turbines provide no regulation The turbines continue to be set on a six hour schedule Cooper and Eklutna hydro facilities provide little regulation The Bradley Lake hydro is fully dispatchable No ability to forecast wind power output more than 24 hrs in advance Northern railbelt system will provide regulation for wind generation at Eva Creek Electric Power Systems"Slide 4Cc. Consulting Engineers Study Criteria -Regulation resource will must be able to regulate the wind with the following conditions: The regulation resource will not be sized for the worst case wind down ramp Instead the regulation resource must be sized to keep the number of shortfall hours fewer than 12/year The regulation resource should be sized to deal with a wind down ramp or the largest single contingency For the 2015 study year,the largest contingency is the lossof the Kenai tie at maximum export from the Kenai Regulation should be capable with any single regulating resource out of service System will not be planned for a N-2 condition ,Electric Power Systems . x ine.| Slide 5Y)Consulting Engineers Oo -Study Scope Regulation resources studied: Flywheel Energy Storage Systems Use advanced high-speed rotational energy to deal with changes in wind generation Battery Energy Storage Systems Many different battery technologies and manufacturers exist Select the "best-fit”technology based on applicability and price Battery Energy Storage Systems Compressed Natural Gas Storage Use gas storage tanks to provide fuel to existing gas turbines during times of wind shortfall Clectric Power Systemsms:Slide 6ConsultingEngineers Oo ---Battery Research -The battery technologies were analyzed to determine the "best-fit”for a regulation resource -Based on analysis a few battery technologies were selected as potential solutions Chart shows cycle life of various technologies 100000 Cyclelife10000 :+GVEA'S Ni-Cd 1000 T lBattery 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80% Depth of Discharge eee Power Systems Slide 7ConsultingEngineers o Battery Research The battery research results: The advanced lead-acid batteries are cheap and have much greater cycle lives than conventional lead-acid technology The Lithium-lon battery technology,while expensive,has superior capabilities and cycle life Advanced flywheels were deemed unacceptably expensive and could not provide the required regulation energy gr Clectric Power SystemsiySAConsultingEngineersmse Slide 8 C>* SYSTEMS -o™ Oo -Study Methodology The regulation was tested using typical data for a large wind farm (50MW) The regulation resource must have fewer than 12 shortfall hours during a year. This analysis determined that the minimum energy necessary for this criteria was 25 MWh The best fit battery was the advanced lead-acid battery The battery would cost approximately $48.5M Slide 9 Average Energy (MWh)Shortfall Case}Battery Size {Correction Factor |Samples }Total Wind |Feathered |Shortfall }%Feathered |Hours 1 35 0.2 5 152666 233 0.4 0.2%5 2 35 0.5 5 152666 625 0.0 0.4%0 3 30 0.2 5 152666 870 5.5 0.6%6 4 30 0.5 5 152666 2008 5.4 1.3%2 5 25 0.2 5 152666 1830 21.1 1.2%11 6 25 0.5 5 152666 3892 18.5 2.5%5 7 20 .0.2 5 152666 3100 82.8 2.0%48 8 20 0.5 5 152666 6280 52.0 4.1%16 la 35 0.2 5 162228 369 1.2 0.2%3 2a 35 0.5 5 162228 773 0.0 0.5% 3a 30 0.2 5 162228 1122 1.2 0.7% 4a 30 0.5 5 162228 2319 0.0 14% Sa 25 0.2 5 162228 2203 21.7 1.4%19 6a 25 0.5 5 162228 4424 16.2 2.7%9 7a 20 0.2 5 162228 3613 120.5 2.2%70 8a 20 0.5 5 162228 7018 67.5 4.3%25 Electric Power Systemsinc.Slide 10ConsultingEngineers O °Flexible Gas Storage The flexible gas storage size was determined by the loss of the Kenai tie The requirement is for 60 MW for a 6 hour time frame For a 360 MWh+gas storage capability costs approximately $22.8M Slide 11 Oo =Recommendations The Southcentral Raibelt should utilize a combination of Hydro,BESS and FGS to provide regulation and transient response The governing criteria is the loss of the Anchorage -Kenai Intertie Future upgrades to the Anchorage -Kenai transmission system will influence the regulation technology Yn Nn Power =Slide 12ConsultingEngine Oo °§Recommendations The design criteria for the regulation resource should be refined and evaluated The relationship between BESS and FGS should be refined to provide more FGS response and lower overall system costs Nee Power =iConsultingEngine Slide 13 Clectrc Power Gistems inc. Consulting Engineers Alaska Energy Authority September 9,2011 Subject:Proposal -AEA Regulation Study Electric Power Systems (EPS)is pleased to present a proposal to the Alaska Energy Authority to perform a Regulation Study (Study)for the Southcentral and Southern portions of the Railbelt.The scope of work has been developed as a result of several emails and conversations.Our overview of the scope of work,our cost estimate,and our timeline are described below. Background AEA has requested that EPS analyze the Railbelt to determine the appropriate regulation resources to be used on the Railbelt to mitigate regulation impacts due to wind and other renewable and variable energy sources. This study will use the Railbelt PSS/E Year 2009 base cases approved by the IOC Systems Studies Subcommittee (SSS)and the Planning Year 2025 seasonal cases developed by EPS for the large hydro evaluation studies. 1.Base Case Development EPS will create seasonal power flow and stability bases cases for a variety of different operating and regulation conditions.The IOC approved 2009 seasonal cases will be used as a starting point,adding renewable energy sources like Fire Island and Eva Creek to the 2009 cases.Fire Island and Eva Creek will also be added to the 2025 cases developed by EPS for use in evaluating the Watana hydro project.A list of the different base case configuration issues is provided below.It is assumed that the three seasonal load conditions (summer valley,summer peak,winter peak)will be created for each of the different base case configurations,resulting in several different power flow initial conditions. e 2009 seasonal cases as developed for the [OC e 2025 seasonal cases as developed for Watana project studies e Fire Island addition e Eva Creek addition e Large hydro addition 2.Regulation Requirements The Railbelt regulation requirements will be determined by performing standard planning simulations (transient stability studies).The required regulation will be based on achieving AEA REGULATION ANALYSIS. PROPOSAL acceptable frequency variations on the Railbelt during expected transient events.The regulation requirements will be analyzed based on current and future Railbelt operating procedures.The regulation requirements will be based on acceptable frequency variations around the nominal 60 Hz system frequency.Simulations will also be used to determine the energy requirements for regulation of non-dispatchable resources. The regulation will attempt to find a balance between the regulation capabilities of the Central/Southern Railbelt system with those of the northern system. 3.Energy and Power Requirements Regulation analysis will be used to determine the energy and power required to appropriately regulate the frequency on the Railbelt system.The energy and power required to keep the frequency within the regulation requirements will be determined for the different base cases and for additions in variable energy resources (wind energy)and in system topology.These requirements will be used to quantify the amount of regulation that should be installed on the Railbelt system.The energy and power requirements will be developed for 5 minute,10 minute, and 1 hour time frames. The ability to re-schedule hydro resources during the hour and the total amount of variable or non-scheduled resources will be agreed upon by AEA prior to the start of the studies.In the future cases,it will be assumed that the large hydro project can provide minimal regulation duetodownstreamwaterrestrictions. 4.Regulation Source Analysis Regulation sources will be analyzed to determine the feasibility of different technologies and options to appropriately regulate the frequency on the Railbelt system.Possible regulation sources include the following: e Flexible natural gas fuel supply e Flywheels e Battery Energy Storage Regulation analysis will be used to determine the sizing of the different technologies.The analysis will also include steady state and transient methods to determine the effectiveness of the regulation resources during contingency and other abnormal system events. In general,EPS will evaluate the proposed regulation resources based on the optimum resource technology for the long-term solution and then evaluate its benefit and effectiveness in the current system configuration.The regulation technology will be evaluated in terms of flexibility and future expansion. 5.Life-Cycle Cost Analysis Once the technical feasibility and requirements of the different regulation resources is completed,the different costs associated with providing the required energy and power will be calculated.The costs will be used to compare the different regulation sources for the different base cases /configurations.The construction costs will be developed for the base system installed to meet the regulation requirements of the current Railbelt.Additions or expansion of the regulation capacity required to meet the long-term system regulation demands will be added Sept 9,2011 Page 2 ésCis Pre SysteodConsultingEngineers AEA REGULATION ANALYSIS. PROPOSAL to the base costs in year 2025 in all cases.Operation,maintenance and R&R costs will be included for all regulation alternatives. EPS will need to work with utility personnel to establish the economic benefits of regulation options and the expected costs of flexible fuel systems. Other benefits such as reduced spinning reserve,increased reliability or increased dispatching flexibility that may be identified during the selection process will be quantified and if possible, economic parameters will be included in the evaluation. 6.Regulation Optimization and Recommendations EPS will utilize the technical results from the regulation simulations to determine the required capacity and response characteristics of the regulation resource.The regulation requirements will be identified for the long-term requirements and tested against the near-term system requirements. The technical requirements of the near-term and long-term regulation options will be used to develop economic and life-cycle cost estimates of the regulation options.The regulation options will be evaluated for their ability to be expanded,if differences exist between the near term and long-term requirements. 7.Report We will provide a recommendation on the regulation technology and budgetary cost estimates by January 16,2012.The final report including the recommended regulation technology and construction cost estimates will be completed during the final report. EPS will provide a final report documenting all aspects of this study as described in the tasks above.EPS will provide electronic copies of all of the PSS/E related files,including PSS/E base cases,contingency lists,and script files.The report will be first issued in draft format for AEA comments,and the final report will incorporate the AEA comments. Staffing This study will be conducted by Mr.David Burlingame in our Anchorage office and by Dr.James Cote in our Redmond,WA office.Additional staff will be used under our direct supervision to assist in the cost effective and timely completion of the project. Deliverables The deliverables shall include: 1.Electronic copies of the power flow cases and associated script files conducted in PSS/E format. 2.A written draft report detailing the study,the assumptions and the methodologies used to recommend the regulating technology for the Southcentral Railbelt. A presentation of the draft and final reports to AEA at AEA's offices in Anchorage. 4.Awritten final report,incorporating comments from AEA personnel.ogSept 9,2011 Page 3 FY,Ceci.Poner S ystems AEA REGULATION ANALYSIS . PROPOSAL Cost and Schedule The study shall be completed based on the following estimated task durations,timeline,staffing hours,and cost. Staff Principal #Task Duration |Completion |Engineer |Engineer Cost Hours Hours 1 |Base Case Development 2 week |10/15/2011 60 20/$10,760.00 2 |Regulation Requirements 2 weeks {|10/31/2011 40 80]$19,040.00 3 |Energy and Power Requirements 3 weeks |11/21/2011 160 120]$40,560.00 4 |Regulation Source Analysis 1.5 weeks |12/7/2011 48 12|$7,896.00 5 |Technology Recommendation 6 weeks 1/16/2012 240 160|$57,280.00 6 |Cost Analysis 8 weeks |3/10/2012 140 100]$34,600.00 7 |Regulation Optimization 4weeks |3/21/2012 160 120!$40,560.00 g |Final Report 3 weeks |4/15/2012 80 40|$16,720.00 totals 928 652|$227,416.00 The EPS cost estimate is a Not-to-Exceed cost estimate based on the scope of work as described in this document. If you have any questions,please feel free to give me a call at 907-646-5103. Sincerely, David W.Burlingame,P.E. Principal Engineer Sept 9,2011 Page 4 OR,Electric Power S ystems SYSTEMS