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HomeMy WebLinkAboutSusitna Hydroelectric Feasibility Study AEA Presentation June 9, 2008SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC | FEASIBILITY STUDY |. AEA PRESENTATION June 9,2008 Beat mareay)a 'the we RAM CONSULTANTS,INC.nen ' -. L :,ne ne b ¢'A a . Ne .Loe,.ee ae +t common.Cr Dt eee t N Fo,eo.eo SO ca ON ,OR VILS CANYON . . :: n fu 'ward errs'eM a t an F mot i 2 n | :a.he t a at/ar n o whee ag . ' Wainer"HYDROELECTRIC s.Ye>FEASIBILITY STUDY |_Presentation to the Alaska Energy Authority :pe bo a :wn -.i .ay . .- DEVILS canyon”. "oan cere'oan '°s "0 AGENDA esarenothe"s Introductions *2 a ae-Uriderstanding of AEA'sRequest,oe , ."Assumptions ag _oe ,ooaProject.Team ifs ce "a oe .ah7ScopeofAssignment.poe nn 7 th ;Ye :a '=Discussion Topics and Questions to AEA .7 \ 'pet :';i :; . pO es,.. ;a IN mi "eS it Fe Z 6 N ! ee aeemesenenenlll .weet ae *;>ea "UNDERSTANDING OFAEA'S ayNsREQUEST”7 mahs-Study Response to.Seniate BillNo.246 -veiwns,."arp?pemUIES wee -Ne we*'Studypart of Integrated Straiegic Energy .Plan for the Railbelt ”a:,_'ee -',Ml ose. oi'*"EstimatedCost to Performsn the Sty.wee.Jf et eats be ooo™UNDERSTANDINGOF AEA'S |REQUEST:(continued):Scart s.Study Objectives:|aa eat-Identify Susitna Projet Options and Estitated Cost.of Power |WN stay oo-Update 1984 Study to Determirie Project Feasibility,x a-Apply Today'Ss Engineering Standards in Assessing.ie'Feasibility a \{.=Identifyfurther investigations /'analyses *mw ye Aer i " iy .fi '\.a :.yw -an 4 x 4 oe pe ae 'a i FS «:id :Ps \\4 mo:-:wow '4 é pe ..Sane ft : :. : é :".. ..L 'coe wo ae why toyneet ;-ey .:;'fo :i'wots £we '»\ene .Ge ::4 .4aawaeGaanboopAMATeBeeerrserniepa.US .,F %. :to kt a my :a". -UNDERSTANDING:OF AEA'S oe 5-__REQUEST (c(continued)a eet OS \ "=Deliverables:” a E_Bibliography eC ae as-Updates for AEA and Légistature.a-''-Final|Report Due©September 2009 -4 rane :.7 .:mo .,eeaanDooNON .:.in anumn---eeee.wes :.:°.so om 'Study assists AEA's linderstandingof.NN' ...Cost of power from Susitna'competitivewith . oe Study provides Input to Statee Strategic._A :'DEY ,oe 2”'. t ::'i :Hh tH Ane .met of *-:wt VON OT {' 7 =ASSUMPTIONS . oe "Study atidresses AEA's auesuene 4:"lg the rm "alternatives and should AEA:'Proceed |to"moredetailed analysis?”neceeBaemeoN Gf.|i rn Ces 'Y nee ,™". Energy Plan ;-ne Oo .my -Susitna Feasibility - ee pe . :onewieASSUMPTIONS(continued)5 |ie ORVILS CANYON'oan sire'aton=Analysesprimarily,basedonExisting,2.oe :noReports<ON i,QU +.ne .:cae i wa.'Basis for Cost Estimating Accuracy'iis:ae\ian30%.et 5 ton jp Pe a '" 7 .ys = :: a0 ws te vk .ra *a Y re vo a -we arenseioyLoma 'a,Regulatory and Environmental Analyses -=,_iF "Fatal Flaw”level of effort _) fob yon >rom Fae bt'/e7:.na "nee)* em .aes©PROJECT TTEAMGet aeSS+ORVILE EANYON'.at fy "oandser =S sy be.7-.*Project Management.AEA.Contact,R&M TeamManager °"John Magee.=Project Sponsor,Hatch Acres ae "Keith Moen..-Project Manager,Hatch'Acres So ;biek ¢Griffith-Report.Manager 'I Nan Nalder .\oNglee' Rob age women 2 we ..rie?' x +og me,eng .O8VILS gabon'pant srr'os "Engisiséting Analysis -Bs iOSs"nyse:Project Engineer _oe .MMAR OTonProject Layouts ..”:-Construction Cost,Estimate.”a-Geotechnical -.ses-'Embankment Dams eee-Turbine &Mechanical Systems -:-Generator &Electrical Systems _=Transmission Systeni Analysis,_-Operations Stu./f { .Fsoy Noo"ATLA 8 2 We =Dick Griff th/stu Bridgeman \ afNe_SohinwiMagee/Steve Hart.”-og rim,Rutherford | * ErieBodholtCharlieRiddle.-Don'Bowes -Peter Rodrigue .Ken Salmon.i Del LaRue . ae A :. ee i:,t eo"PROJECTTEAM (continued)1,SBYILS GANYON"andsorewes . oe-Regiulatory Analysis ,ANaEnvironmentalAnal2iy.oA i Analysis i Yo re-Power.Market Analysis i olox3=:Loads and Forecasting ee=Financial Analysis=-Business Analysis Lee be ee ale tod 7 '.&.'we Power Market &.Economic i Financial pow K's.Nan Nalder |warSteenseit Thrall.Neig a'ns "Regulatory &EnvironmentalAvlyets ==a So OY .Sa \Pa ha \.a)': ” :if .*tue ""ohn HeberiingClarkSmith:'John Heberling tA |Robert Griesbach'\AreiNor!mA MiRBMCONSULTANTS,WG.) 7.,Proposédstudy Phasing :and Schedule-a"cry Phase 1=Preliminary Investigations in ay Pon me ".7"SCOPE OFASSIGNMENTwn,.OVEus caANvoNn®nar xX 'van pire' 7 Phase Il -Project Feasibility Study.a aiaSeen etetce"Annotated Outline for Phase |Report -mn oe Current Status of Development of State-.Strategic Energy Plan -.Contacts with State Departments and Agencies \.'=Deliverables.(6 0 em ee i ah 7-Annotated Bibliography oS a 2 Ay ye_-PhaselLetterReport ¢(-. .'.:wt-Phase I DraftReport-66 NEcoPhaseIInterimReports"Briefing”for AEA and®i \,State Legislature «:rn .-Phase Il Final Report”a _DISCUSSION TTOPICS AND-QUESTIONS:TO AEA.."AEA'S Role.aswe-conduct Study'_enRivesoeStudy.SFit”to AEA's Overall 'Assessment ofFuture:Energy Development.aie ,,ON.'Current status.of the Alaska Railbelt ElectricalGridAuthority(REGA).Study-aroS=REGA Reports available during this study sf4 4Vafu\ aan and/or Electric Utilities .an oy RAM CONRULTANTS,ING.)"RH ve oe}imam Project Team Brief Resumes HAG A SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC FEASIBILITY STUDY ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY PROJECT TEAM "MINI-RESUMES” PROJECT MANAGEMENT John K.Magee,P.E. Mr.Magee is a senior member of R&M's Civil Engineering and Construction Services, with 44 years of design and project experience,38 years of which are in Alaska.His extensive experience includes hydroelectric and water control projects and large and small industrial projects in remote areas.He fully understands the economics, engineering design perspectives for facilities in rural and remote locations.John's experience with civil engineering programs in Alaska including river training works and hydroelectric projects.Hydroelectric projects include Terror Lake project,Bradley Lake project,Larsen Bay,Swan Lake,Humpback Creek,and recent tailings dams at mine sites and Susitna project.Specific Susitna involvement included evaluation of the project for ADF&G early in program.John serves as the R&M project manager for AEA projects and will lead the engineering analyses of the Susitna options. A.Richard Griffith,P.E. Dick has 35 years experience in the hydropower industry and continues to serve Alaska clients since the late 1970's.Dick serves as Project Director and Project Manager for the full range of services in the industry:feasibility studies,condition assessment of existing structures,Part 12 dam safety inspections,and analysis of new hydroelectric projects,Dick served as Project Engineer for the AK-BC Intertie Feasibility Study and currently serves in lead roles for new hydro project development in Southcentral and Southeast Alaska.Current projects include the Allison Lake Project for Copper Valley Electric Association;and the Whitman Lake and Mahoney Lake projects for Ketchikan Public Utilities.Dick will serve as the Project Manager for the Hatch Acres members of the Project Team for the Susitna Feasibility Study. Stephen M.Hart,P.E. Steve has 28 years experience performing feasibility studies for more than 100 hydroelectric and pumped-storage projects with capacities from 500 KW to over 1000 MW and in assisting public and private power producers and their lenders with financing of over $5 billion worth of hydroelectric projects.He has provided expert witness testimony,value-engineering reviews,operation audits,condition assessments,limited appraisals,FERC licensing assistance,Part 12 dam safety inspection,and final design and construction management services.Steve is currently working with Hatch Acres staff on the Allison Lake Project for Copper Valley and the Mahoney Lake Project for Ketchikan Public Utilities.Steve will serve as Project Engineer for the Hatch Energy participation in this Project. Susitna Hydroelectric Feasibility Study Alaska Energy Authority Project Team -Mini-Resumes June 9,2008 Nan Nalder,M.P.A. Nan's mini-resume appears below at Regulatory and Environmental.In addition to leading the review of the regulatory issues affecting the Susitna Project,Nan will serve as Manager for the Reports to be prepared under this contract. PROJECT ENGINEERING ANALYSIS Eric Bodholt,P.E. Mr.Bodholt has more than 50 years of experience in construction supervision,cost estimating,and construction management.He has served as project manager and project director for the construction of numerous facilities,including power generation plants, hydroelectric facilities,hydraulic structures,and nuclear and fossil power stations.These power facilities have had generating capacities of up to 1,450 MW.Mr.Bodholt is thoroughly skilled and knowledgeable in all facets of the construction process,from estimating and bidding through final construction.He is also experienced in other administrative tasks related to project construction,including development of construction procedures and construction administrative manuals,schedule preparation,staff selection, labor relations and organization,claims and disputes resolution,litigation support,data base management,and technical guidance.Mr.Bodholt is a member of the Board of Governors for the Construction Management Association of America and was in 2003 elected by his Peers to become a FELLOW in the organization.He maintains active membership in several other professional societies.Eric participated in the Harza-Ebasco contract with AEA for Susitna and was to serve as the Site Manager during construction.For this study,Eric will lead the team effort regarding cost estimate update and projections for the Susitna options. Donald E.Bowes,P.E. Mr.Bowes has 47 years of broad civil engineering experience in water resources engineering.His experience includes planning,licensing,design,construction, operation,potential failure modes analyses,safety evaluations,and rehabilitation of multipurpose projects involving dams,conventional and pumped storage hydroelectric facilities,water supply facilities,flood control facilities,and irrigation facilities.His experience includes all types of embankment and concrete dams varying in heights to 770 feet (235 m)and hydroelectric projects up to 2,000 MW and 1,300 feet (396 m)of head.Don will work with our team in evaluating existing reports and identifying the proposed options for the Susitna Project.Don will identify future requirements associated with FERC's Dam Safety Program. Stuart Bridgeman,P.E. Stuart is a Director of Synexus Global,who has extensive experience in utilization of models to comprehensively study the incorporation of new generation projects into the existing transmission and generation systems.He was involved the power system planning component,including integration of Susitna into the system,of the Susitna Feasibility Studies.Work involved setting up and running water resource models of the Susitna project,as well as power system models.Stuart will be responsible for overseeing the setup of the Vista Decision Support System to represent the existing Susitna Hydroelectric Feasibility Study Alaska Energy Authority Project Team -Mini-Resumes June 9,2008 generation facilities,the proposed Susitna facility options,and the transmission system. He will also oversee associated scenario analyses to cover the life of the project. Delbert LaRue,P.E. Del has extensive experience in designing transmission,distribution,and substation facilities throughout Alaska.Over the last 36 years,he has designed numerous substations and over 500 miles of transmission and distribution facilities for Alaskan utilities.Del served as the lead for transmission system analysis for the recently completed AD-BC Intertie Feasibility Study.He is well known in the state for transmission line designs from the North Slope to Ketchikan.Del will be responsible for the transmission system including system studies,lines,and interconnections to the existing utilities. Keith Moen,P.E. Mr Moen has 19 years of hydropower and general civil engineering experience and serves as the Office Manager for the Hatch Acres Office in Seattle,Washington.In that role,Keith serves as the Project Sponsor for the Hatch Acres team and will assure that Hatch Acres staff is available to perform work for this Project.Keith is familiar with all stages of water resource design development including site evaluation,pre-feasibility, feasibility,final design,permitting,agency interface,and construction supervision.He has participated in reconnaissance,cost estimating,layout,final design calculations,and specifications.He provided preliminary and final design services for several hydroelectric projects,including the Whitman Lake Project for Ketchikan Public Utilities. Keith will work with the project team on the Susitna engineering investigations. Charles Riddle,C.P.G. Charlie has 34 years experience with geotechnical programs in Alaska.He is a specialist in engineering geology and borehole drilling programs,and is responsible fro management of geology and environmental tasks for geotechnical and multi-discipline investigations.Charlie has managed field and office investigations on a variety of project s,including foundation analysis,large scale grading,rock mechanics and slope stability,hydroelectric site studies,tunnel investigations,quarry and material site investigations,geologic and bedrock structure mapping and permafrost studies. Hydroelectric and other dam projects include Susitna,Bradley Lake,Tazimina, Humpback Creek,Gustavus,Kasidaya Creek,Fort Knox tailings dams,Kotzebue Vortac Dam,Blue Lake/Green Lake and Allison Creek.Specific Susitna involvement includes geotechnical field programs and instrumentation.Charlie will be responsible for geotechnical and other physical aspects of Susitna. Peter Rodrigue,P.E. Peter is a Mechanical Engineer with 34 years experience relating primarily to hydroelectric and water control projects.He has been responsible for the mechanical design aspects of hydroelectric facilities with capacities ranging from a few hundred kilowatts to over 1000 MW,and operating heads from less than 5 m to over 700 m.His experience encompasses plant layout,turbines,pump-turbines,valves,gage equipment, cranes,and mechanical services,and includes North American and international 3 Susitna Hydroelectric Feasibility Study Alaska Energy Authority Project Team -Mini-Resumes June 9,2008 projects.He has extensive experience with all types of hydro turbines,including studies, specifications,model testing,design analysis,hydraulic transients,cavitation and erosion studies,manufacturing inspection and QA,site installation commissioning and performance testing.He has been involved in the selection,design and design analusis of a wide range of gate equipment.Peter is currently assisting Ketchikan Public Utilities with upgrades at its Ketchikan Lakes and Beaver Falls Projects.Peter will serve as the lead mechanical engineer for purposes of performing the studies for the Susitna options. James H.Rutherford,P.E. Jim has 25 years experience in project planning and management,heavy structural and civil design,construction cost estimating,and construction management.Jim has diverse technical experience that includes site planning,hydraulics,and hydrology,and structures.Jim is currently working with Cordova Electric Cooperative to restore their damaged intake/diversion structure and water conveyance system for the Humpback Creek Project,and project layout for Copper River Electric Association's proposed Allison Lake Project.His Alaska experience spans over 20 years including work on Bradley Lake Hydro Project,Swan Lake Project,Terror Lake,Blind Slough,and served as Co-Independent FERC Part 12 Consultant for the Solomon Gulch Project.Jim will work on Project Layout assessment for the Susitna team. Kenneth B.Salmon,P.E. Ken has over 30 years of experience in hydroelectric and transmission projects including project management and preparation of detailed design for hydroelectric projects, equipment and preparation of design for hydroelectric projects,equipment arrangements, design criteria and technical specifications,tender drawings and cost estimation of generation,associated bus ducts,auxiliary equipment and systems,distributed control system and switchyard facilities.Mr.Salmon has provided on-site management and supervision of equipment tests and system commissioning of hydro installations.He has also recently managed and provided technical input for rehabilitation modernization,life extension and runner replacement projects.Ken is currently assisting KPU in upgrades to its existing hydro projects and worked on the AK-BC Intertie Feasibility Study and the Southeast Intertie Study. REGULATORY &ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS Nan Nalder,M.P.A. Ms.Nalder has 40 years experience in natural resources management,architectural design,strategic planning,regulatory analysis,rulemaking development and implementation,EIS preparation,FERC licensing,compliance program management, public involvement programs and managing collaborative processes.She manages environmental and regulatory work for clients who own and operate hydropower projects and electric transmission infrastructure under regulation by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC)and State agencies.She has served in policy and management positions with federal agencies,including EPA,NOAA,FERC and the Bonneville Power Administration.Nan participated in the review of the original Application for License for the Susitna Project while on FERC staff.She is a trained Susitna Hydroelectric Feasibility Study Alaska Energy Authority Project Team -Mini-Resumes June 9,2008 facilitator and uses those skills on behalf of clients in developing long-term resource management programs in the form of durable settlement agreements.Nan served as Project Manager for the AK-BC Intertie Feasibility Study for AEA and the Southeast Intertie Study for the Southeast Conference.Nan currently is serving as the Strategic Advisor and Program Manager for FERC proceedings for:Ketchikan Public Utilities for the Whitman Lake Project,including facilitating a Settlement Agreement;for Copper Valley Electric Association for the Allison Lake Project;KPU in its review of the Mahoney Lake Project;and Cordova Electric Association in its Application for Amendment to rebuild damaged facilities at the Humpback Creek Project.Nan will serve as the lead on regulatory analysis and report manager for this Project. James Thrall,PhD. Thirty-five years experience in planning and licensing of hydroelectric projects.Since 1994 he has provided FERC license compliance and permitting services to both the Alaska Energy Authority and the Four Dam Pool Power Agency for the Solomon Gulch, Swan Lake,Terror Lake and Tyee Projects.From 1982 -85 he served as Assistant Project Manager and Manager of Environmental and Licensing for the Susitna Project. In that role he provided technical management to a team of some twenty-five (25) specialists including fisheries and wildlife biologists,hydrologists,water quality specialists,sociologists,anthropologists and economists as well as some 35 consultant organizations.The budgets for environmental programs under his management exceeded ten million dollars per year.A major part of his work for the Susitna Project was assistance to the Alaska Power Authority (now AEA)in planning and execution of a licensing strategy.He implemented a settlement program designed to identify the critical environmental issues associated with the project and to form working groups with the resource agencies and other stakeholders to address each issue.Other Alaskan hydroelectric projects for which he has provided environmental and licensing services include Gustavus,Larsen Bay,Old Harbor,Pyramid Creek and Chackachamna.Jim will be responsible for review and analysis of environmental aspects of Susitna,including identifying future work necessary to confirm project feasibility under today's environmental regulations,including additional studies necessary to support an Application for License. POWER MARKET &ECONOMIC/FINANCIAL ANALYSIS Bob Griesbach,P.E.C.M.C. Bob is a Certified Management Consultant and Professional Engineer with more than 30 years experience.Bob has been responsible for the execution of energy planning, electric power sector restructuring,due diligence,operations efficiency improvement, valuation,tariff,financial,cost of service,market assessment and economic analysis projects for a client list that includes major Canadian and US electric utilities,IPP developers,private investors,investment funds and government agencies as well as international financing agencies such as CIDA,the World Bank,the Asian Development Bank and the Caribbean Development Bank.He was the Project Director for our recently completed AK-BC Interconnection Study for AEA and will serve as the Lead for consideration of Business Analysis for this Project. Susitna Hydroelectric Feasibility Study Alaska Energy Authority Project Team -Mini-Resumes June 9,2008 John L.Heberling,P.E. John has over 30 years experience as a consultant to electric utilities,municipal,state and federal government agencies,private power developers,and banks and financial institutions involved with the funding of energy-related projects.His practice has included development of numerous feasibility evaluations of power projects,planning studies,load forecasts,financial and economic analyses,rate studies,long-range operating projections,due diligence reviews and reports in the support of bond issuance and non-recourse loans.He has worked with various Alaska electric utilities and State agencies for over 25 years and had significant involvement in feasibility assessments and economic analyses of the Bradley Lake and Susitna hydroelectric projects.In 2004 he provided economic analysis and a regional power market review related to the relicensing of the Cooper Lake hydroelectric project located on the Kenai Peninsula. John will be responsible for review and analysis of financial and economic aspects of Susitna,including power market analysis. Clark Smith Clark is a Senior Project Economist with over 30 years of experience in the fields of economics,finance and markets with specialization in energy sector.His major involvement has been on international energy and power sector projects where he has taken part in the preparation of planning reports and power sector master plans.His experience includes assignments in Canada and the United States as well as numerous other countries in Africa,Asia and South America.Clark has been responsible for the development of the power market forecast,the economic evaluation and the financial analysis for national power system master plans;loss reduction,interconnection and rural electrification studies,as well as the analysis of specific hydroelectric and thermal projects.Clark prepared the load forecasts used in our recent AK-BC Interconnection Study and will serve in that role for this Project. Susitna Hydroelectric Feasibility Study Alaska Energy Authority Project Team -Mini-Resumes June 9,2008 AUTO Mista rH |es vieesR&M CONSULTANTS,INC. wee, ." >Soe . *s : 1 oe J o4 irn! *%{we ot,ra i:a re Ps "-4°roan a ae a)a a ":.*e 7 .a et Bo Sos SS ponentgad oe -Loca eon es\.:ad ¢ nw ,a |OF WILS CANYON 7 aa Qs "oan pire'Sa :" a earn -ne 7oom"SUSITNA,Fate"HYDROELECTRIC we-FEASIBILITY STUDY |=:_Presentation to the Alaska Energy Authority -i pose Veg.are a :7.vi :.i : jowe tes rn >a? : .;-foe . : .5 of 7 Ler 8 ae :: . ;'m HATCH ADRES 2) ™Idaho Power _ea s 3 Peg RacifiCorp:2 sac7 (28y 82 7 A Ee- me Nv Us 1 -DEVILS SANYONiadoeCoanore!;"System Name__|"=s "AUTO.VistaJAPPLICATIONSRes- S yee Le *en nw _Units -BPA -"Columbia Vista”-_73 PG&E (NEP): ."18GreatLakesPower.42:Nova Scotia Power . 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'pots if :he ''\A _BUS CONFIGURATION - X(€081)§ X(COB1)Pu X(PNW1)5 7 XCPNW1)Pui ”Contract BusONMILS'OAM Bite|supa area, (C082)5 boos.4 BPA2 :F COB2S ©.X(PNW2)§2 9G-Plamn4- ' -=se CONWAY f /"line limits”RO)Sa VA ce hae ,X(BPA-»XOMIOC)A ll i \,COB3P _.,...i :SMe woth x(coB3Xp ;-¢BPA).', -Lo -Af y COB3S xeNwans ""group line.>|”X(PNWA)P -, : Wi limits”° .7"aggregate Wanapum ".956-MW Priest Rapids--907A X(COB3)S . L - :ra HATH AGE : fo ae bo a ON, a wo Nema , a ."a]N 3 woos Oi ANY Ge ,. Wells ,"te,ih CoaM cire'ot nr :!890-MW f#\Chief Joseph."Pez .GrandeCoulee-__iv 7 2614-MW ;*.8684-MW ao >';7 ni 6 a .w ;uo Oo te mS!a 5 V ad -ie mar \f,Rocky RReach -'1346-MW ONEHiMybrow,; 2 .{., ."Rock island --662-MW _ao ah " .(4 on aan 'ic ; i ,$ 4 ;'"ming 8 Sh |_Mid-Columbi-Hydroeleetrig |'. la.|RAM CONSULTANTS, Annotated Outlime for Phase |Report oH |eo REM CONSULTANTS,INC. SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC FEASIBILITY STUDY ALASKA ENERGY AUTHORITY REPORT -ANNOTATED OUTLINE EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1.INTRODUCTION 1.1.Purpose of Report 1.2.Policy Issues 1.3.Contractual Background 1.4.Study Approach and Assumptions 1.5.Phasing 1.5.1.Phase |-Preliminary Investigations 1.5.1.1.Scoping and Literature Review 1.5.1.2.Evaluation of Existing Reports &Documents 1.5.1.3.|Final Scope for Feasibility Study 1.5.2.Phase Il -Project Feasibility Study 1.6.Project Management &Project Team 1.7.Deliverables 1.7.1.Annotated Bibliography 1.7.2.Phase |Letter Report 1.7.3.Phase Il Draft Report 1.7.4.Phase Il Interim Reports 1.7.5.Phase Il Final Report 2.STUDY AREA AND ENERGY SECTOR 2.1.Railbelt Geographic Area and Economy 2.2.Existing System Studies and Identified System Limitation 2.3.Existing and Planned Generation 2.4.Existing and Planned Transmission 3.SUSITNA HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT 3.1.Project Alternatives Studied to Date 3.2.Project Site Conditions 3.2.1.Geology &Geotechnical Data 3.2.2.Fisheries Operational Constraints 3.2.3.Other 3.3.Project Options 3.3.1.Capacity 3.3.2.Phasing 3.3.3.Compatibility with System 3.3.4.Development Schedule 3.3.5.Future O&M Costs 3.4.Selected Alternative -Proposed Project Description 3.5.Comparison of Proposed Project with Previous Studies &Today's Engineering Standards 3.5.1.Risk Analysis -Engineering &Technical Risks 3.5.2.FERC Dam Safety Program Requirements 3.5.3.State of the Art Comparison 4.PROJECT HYDROLOGY &GENERATION 4.1.Historic,Current &Future Trends 4.2.Hydrology Study -Existing Reports 4.3.Hydrology Study Update 4.4.Estimated Project Generation 4.5.Estimated Impacts of Weather Changes Susitna Hydroelectric Feasibility Study Alaska Energy Authority Report -Annotate Outline June 9,2008 5.INTEGRATION TO SYSTEM 5.1.Existing Transmission Capability 5.2.Capability of System to Integrate Susitna 5.3.Proposed Intertie Upgrades 5.4.System Stability With Susitna 6.POWER MARKET 6.1.Existing Loads &Projected Growth Trends 6.2.Review Existing Load Forecasts 7.OPERATIONS STUDIES 7.1.Long-Term Vista Integrated Resource Planning 7.1.1.Alaska Railbelt system loads 7.1.2.Existing generation 7.1.3.Susitna 7.1.4.Monthly snapshots of operations (5 periods over 25 years;5 hydrology streams) for Susitna development option 7.1.5.Vista Output 7.1.5.1.Generation/load balance;surplus/deficit 7.1.5.2.Mvar constraint effects for system stability 7.1.5.3.|Production cost over time 7.2.AUTO Vista Operations Studies 7.2.1.Alaska Railbelt system loads 7.2.2.Existing generation 7.2.3.Susitna 7.2.4.5-year snapshots of operations (2015,2020,2025,2030,2035,etc.);low,normal &high hydrologic years for each for Susitna development option 7.2.5.Vista Output 7.2.5.1.Generation/load balance;surplus/deficit 7.2.5.2.Mvar constraint effects for system stability 7.2.5.3.|Production cost over time 8.CAPITAL COST &PROJECT SCHEDULE 8.1.Capital Cost Estimate -Existing Reports 8.2.Capital Cost Update 8.3.Logistics &Constructability 8.4.Preliminary Project Schedule 9.REGULATORY &ENVIRONMENTAL 9.1.Regulatory Process 9.1.1.Chronology to Date -Past FERC Application Documents &Current Value 9.1.2.FERC Preliminary Permit -Rationale and Purpose 9.1.3.FERC Licensing Procedures -Available Process Options and Implications 9.1.4.Other Regulatory Approvals -Current Requirements 9.2.Environmental Analysis 9.2.1.Chronology to Date -Past Studies &Reports &Current Value 9.2.2.Current Requirements 10.PROJECT FINANCING &ECONOMICS 10.1.Capital Considerations &Financing Options 10.2.Economic Considerations 10.3.Regulatory Considerations 10.4.Operating Considerations 10.5.Project Cost of Power for Generation Option that fits System Integration 10.6.Alternative Generation Options &Related Cost of Power (generic costs for coal, natural gas,wind,geothermal,tidal,and other hydro projects) 10.7.Comparison -Susitna Cost of Power &Alternative Generation Options 10.7.1.Long-term Supply Costs for Railbelt with/without Susitna Susitna Hydroelectric Feasibility Study Alaska Energy Authority Report -Annotate Outline June 9,2008 10.7.2.Risk Analysis -with/without Susitna 11.BUSINESS ANALYSIS 11.1.Business Structure Options -Susitna Project 11.2.Railbelt System Management 12.CONCLUSIONS &RECOMMENDATIONS 12.1.Overview 12.2.Conclusions 12.3.Recommendations,including future analyses to refine information prepared during this Feasibility Study APPENDICES A-1 ANNOTATED BIBLIOGRAPHY A-2.MAPS Susitna Hydroelectric Feasibility Study Alaska Energy Authority Report -Annotate Outline June 9,2008