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Home My WebLink AboutEnergy Projects 1984 Appendix AAPPENDIX A Energy Demand Projections Bethel Area Power Plan Feasibility Assessment APPENDIX A ENERGY DEMAND PROJECTIONS DRAFT Prepared for the Alaska Power Authority by Harza Engineering Company and Darbyshire &Associates Draft April 1984 APPENDIX A ENERGY DEMAND PROJECTIONS Table of Contents Chapter I.INTRODUCTION If.FORECASTING MODEL IIIf.ENERGY CONSUMPTION SURVEYS Residential Sector Non-Residential Sector IV.ENERGY DEMAND PROJECTIONS Residential Sector Population Household Size Energy Demand Commercial Sector Commercial Activities Renewable Resource Harvesting Mining and Exploration Construction Household Manufacturing Transportation Wholesale,Warehousing and Distribution Communications and Utilities Trade and Private Services Finance and Real Estate Energy Demand Government Sector Government Activities Non-Profit Organizations Local and Regional Government State Agencies and Services Federal Agencies and Services Transfer Payments Energy Demand REFERENCES LIST OF TABLES Table No.Title Page Iv-1 Total and Electric Energy Demand -Bethel Region IV-2 IV-2 Annual Electric Energy Demand per Household IV-5 IV-3 Commercial Sector -Average Employment and Earnings IV-7 Iv-4 Commercial Sector -Electric Energy Demand IV-17 IV-5 Government Sector -Average Employment and Earnings Iv-19 IV-6 Government Sector -Electric Energy Demand IV-25 LIST OF EXHIBITS Exhibit No.Title Page 10 Typical Distribution of Earnings 1981 Annual Energy Consumption Profile Household Energy Use Survey Village Level Energy Usage Annual Electrical Energy and Peak Demand Projections Forecasts,Total Bethel Area Historical Population Data Population Projections Household Size Household Energy Consumption -ii- Chapter I INTRODUCTION This appendix contains a description of the forecastiny ap- proach used in the study.The forecasting model is described in Chapter II.A description of the surveys which were employed to gather data on current energy consumption is presented in Chapter III.Finally,Chapter IV describes the projections made for the residential,commercial,and government sectors.A de- tailed description of the current subsistence and cash compo- nents of the Bethel regional economy is presented in Appendix B, "Environmental Resources." Forecasting energy demand was accomplished utilizing com- bined demographic and economic modeling techniques.Past ex- perience in rural Alaska shows that changes in population and housing characteristics are largely independent of traditional economic base theory.As a result,the analysis of the current energy demand and the projections were made for the residential and non-residential sectors,separately.The non-residential sector was divided into two categories:commercial and govern- ment.To reflect potential variations in the projections of population,household size,household consumption,economic activities,and energy price trends,three scenarios (low,most likely,and high)were developed. This appendix supports the regional results presented in Chapter II of the Regional Report.More detailed data on cur- rent and projected economic activities and energy demand for each community are presented in the Community Reports. Chapter II FORECASTING MODEL The forecasting model used in this study was first devel- oped lope oped by Darbyshire and Associates in,preparing the1979BethelComprehensiveDevelopmentPlan(1)t/.This model of the Bethel economy can be described as a "Rows-Only"(R-O) model which is a simplified version of a traditional Input-Out- put (I-O)model.In a traditional I-O model,the economy is measured through a constructed input-output table with the hori- zontal "rows"of the table representing the output side of the economy (sales or revenue)and the vertical columns represent- ing the input (purchases)side of the economy.The R-O model refers to the simplifcation of this I-O table into a table that measures only the output side (sales or revenue)of the local economy.This R-O approach allows for much of the detailed economic analysis of traditional I-O modeling,without the ex- penses associated with gathering data not required for study of an economy the scale of Bethel's.A detailed description of the model and its data base is presented in the 1979 Bethel Compre- hensive Development Plan. In 1979,an extensive in-field survey was conducted on all established places of public or private business.The survey was organized to measure essentially two characteristics of each local business or agency.The first objective was to identify all unique economic activities making up the regional economy and to measure their relative size in terms of employment and income levels during the survey year.This was accomplished by asking each employer to disclose total annual payroll paid and profits earned,business taxes paid locally,as well as size of work force.These measurements provided an understanding of the relative sizes and types of activities comprising the regional economy. At the beginning of the present study,a survey was con- ducted to update these earlier efforts and to determine what laajor changes had occurred in the state and federal role during the prior three years.The survey was also expanded to include the surrounding villages.The various economic activities were grouped into the following thirteen groups: re)Renewable Resources fo)Mining &Exploration 1/Numbers in parenthesis refer to references at end of Ap- pendix. II-1 Construction Household Manufacturing Transportation Wholesale Warehousing and Distribution Communications and Utilities Trade and Private Services Finance and Real Estate Non-Profit Organizations Local and Regional Government State Agencies and Services Federal Agencies and Serviceseooo0ooocoocog The first nine groups correspond to the commercial sector,and the last four groups correspond to the government sector. The second objective was to measure the relationships that exist between these groups and their markets.Simply,each place of business or agency was asked to identify all sources of revenue or sales dollars during this same survey year.This information provided a measurement of the interdependencies be- tween each economic activity and the markets it serves.These markets represent sources of demand that continually set levels of business activity in the region.Basically,these markets are of three kinds:(1)inter-activity markets in which,for example,one industry purchases goods or services from other in- dustries;(2)local markets in which the local population pur- chases finished goods and services from local industries;and (3)outside markets in which individuals,industries,or agen- cies residing outside the region pay in exchange for items or services obtained within the region (e.g.,salmon,furs,etc.). This third group comprises mostly government programs paying the regional agencies and individuals for providing special serv- ices.These state and federal government programs provide the largest amounts of money into the economy,and represent a form of social investment (e.g.,education,housing,welfare,etc.). Exhibit 1 presents the typical distribution of earnings which describes the 1981 economic structure of the Bethel regional economy.This distribution can be considered as a multiple cor- relation model which shows the major component parts,their in- terrelations,and their dependencies. In Exhibit 1,the economy is described in two basic parts. The first are the 13 groups of economic activities which are listed as row headings along the left side of the table.The second part of the table is the markets which are represented as column headings across the top of the table. The separate entries in this table denote the portion of a typical revenue dollar of the "row"activity as it is dependent on the "column"market.Typically,one activity can become the II-2 market for another.Each row adds up to $1.00 and therefore gives a full accounting of that particular activity's industry revenues.Row 14 of Exhibit 1,"Value Added",represents the local factors of production (i.e.,labor,capital,infrastruc- ture).This row distributes the $34.5 milion Gross Regional Product (GRP)of Bethel's 1981 economy across the local indus- tries and transfer payments (i.e.,special forms of income re- ceived without work)from the outside market. To arrive at each activity's contribution to GRP simply multiply $34.5 million by the value provided in Row 14 under the inter-activity market.For example,the Non-Profit acti- vity contributed 8 percent of the 1981 GRP,or $2.8 million ($34,500,000 x .08 =$2.8 million,from row 14,column 10).In turn,the actual dollar amount any industry derives from a par ticular market can be obtained by multiplying that activity's total contribution to GRP by the value listed under that parti- cular market.For example,Non-Profit (Row 10)contributed $2.8 million to the Bethel Area's economy in 1981.Of that,92 per- cent or $2.6 million ($2.8 million x .92,Row 10,Column 15), came directly from the outside market which is primarily the federal and/or state governments. Once this table is constructed,it is entered into a com- puter for analysis.The computer traces out all dependencies between activities in this table and computes the complete ori- gin,both directly and indirectly,of Bethel's GRP.Once this model has been computerized,it can respond to changes in the levels of outside inputs which are the primary drivers of the economy.For example,if Bureau of Indian Affairs (BIA)general assistance program is to be reduced by 1/3 of its 1981 level by 1985,then what will be the full general effect on the regional economy?This is answered by first knowing that the BIA program is part of the "Non-Profit Organizations"activity and that the BIA program contributes to about 12 percent of the total revenues received directly from the "Outside Market".The initial result from this 1/3 reduction in BIA general assistance is a 3.7 percent reduction:(1/3 x .12 x .92)(Row 10,Column 15).Tracing out the full effect of this reduction is done by computer due to the length of the calculations.However,the following is an illustration of how this process begins. The next step is to compute the effects of this 3.7 percent reduction on other local activities,and on local income earned by households.Computing the first round of effects on local activities involves Column 10 of Exhibit 1.This column mea- sures the amount other local activities are dependent upon the II-3 Non-Profit Organizations.For example Transportation (Row 5, Column 10)depends on Non-Profit for 3 percent of its revenues; Communications and Utilities depend for 6 percent;Trade and Private Services depend for 1 percent;and Finance and Real Es- tates rely for 15 percent of its revenues.In fact,the Non- Profit industry relies on itself through subcontracting for 1 percent of its revenues (Row 10,Column 10).Each of these inter industry dependencies are directly affected by the 3.7 percent reduction in the Non-Profit activity.Transportation is reduced by .1 percent (.037 x .03);Communications and Utilities by .2 percent (.037 x .06);Trade and Private Services by .04 percent (.037 x .01);and Finance and Real Estate by .6 percent (.037 x .15). Reductions in each of these local activities affect local income earned.Row 14 measures the sources of local income across these local activities,and outside sources (i.e.trans- fer payments).To compute reductions in local income is the next step in this process.It has already been determined that 5 local activities have experienced reductions due to cuts in BIA assistance.Local income is reduced by summing the reduc- tions in these activities times their respective contributions to local income.For example the Non-Profit Organizations ex- perience a reduction of 3.7 percent plus an additional .04 per- cent due to its dependencies on itself (Row 10,Column 10). This 3.74 percent reduction is now applied to its 8 percent contribution to local income (Row 10,Column 10).As a result, the local income is reduced by 0.3 percent (3.74 x 0.08).In turn each of the other activities have also experienced reduc- tions and must apply these reductions to their respective con- tribution to local income.The 0.1 percent reduction in trans- portation reduces local income by .014 percent (Row 14,Column 5;.1 x .14);Communications and Utilities by .004;Trade and Private Services by another .004;and Finance and Real Estate by .012.Summing these 5 reductions results in local income losses of 0.334 percent (.003 +.00014 +.00004 +.00004 + -00012). Since local income earned in the various activities is the source of demand (i.e.local market,Column 14)on other indus- tries,this income reduction must now be applied.Each of these activities which sell a portion of their goods or services lo- cally is now affected by this income reduction of 0.334 percent. For example,Trade and Private Services depend for 66 percent of its business on the local market (Row 8,Column 14).Additional reductions in this industry continue by another 0.22 percent (-66 x 0.00334).In turn,all local industries selling to Trade and Private Services (i.e.Column 8)experience this 0.22 per- cent reduction in demand.Local income is again reduced through inter-activity demand and this feedback process continues through the local market (Column 14). II-4 It should be noted that by each additional round the new reductions become smaller.The size of the new reduction for each of these feedback cyles eventually becomes too small to be worthwhile to continue the calculations.It is then that the full effect of this one program reduction is felt. Because no major changes are expected in the structure of the regional economy,it was assumed that the 1981 relationship between each group of economic activities and their markets would remain the same.The assumptions regarding the future changes in each group of economic activities are presented in the following pages.These changes will set future levels of employment and earnings in each sector of economic activity. The output format of the model was also enhanced to add the end use energy consumption for each economic activity and for the residential sector.Exhibit 2 shows the table output which summarizes the 1981 socioeconomic and energy profile of the Bethel region.Similar exhibits are presented,for each community,in the Community Reports.Total annual income or earnings,in 1981 dollars,are first presented for each econo- mic activity,followed by the corresponding number of average annual employment.It should be noted that the employment numbers listed for each activity do not necessarily indicate full time employment.More than one of these positions may be held by one person simultaneously or by the same person at dif- ferent times of the year.The remaining columns present the end-use energy consumptions.The column entitled "Electricity" corresponds to the total electricity demand,which is the sum of last column "Light and Electric Appliances"consumption and the electricity consumption used in "Cooking,Space Heating,and Water Heating".For convenience,all consumption data are in Million Btu.The electric energy demand can be translated into kilowatt-hours by dividing the consumption in Btu by 3,413 (Btu per kilowatt-hour).The lower section of Exhibit 2 presents the residential sector with population,average household size,to- tal number of households,average total energy consumption per household,and end-use demand.The last line summarizes the to- tal demand from the commercial,government and residential sec- tors. For the energy projections,the model first computes the projected employment and earnings (in 1981 dollars)for each commercial and government activity.Then,the model computes the new energy requirement for each end-use:cooking,space heating,water heating,and lights and electric appliances. This is done,as explained later,by multiplying the 1981 con- sumption by the projected earnings and divided by the 1981 earn- ings for each end-use of each activity.For the residential sector,the projections were obtained by multiplying the proj- II-5 ected number of households by an estimate of future household end-use consumption.In addition,because the reference year 1981 was warmer than an average year,the space heating projec- tions were increased by 15 percent.The detailed assumptions are presented in Chapter IV. II-6 Chapter III ENERGY CONSUMPTION SURVEYS Two energy surveys were undertaken: fe)Residential Oo Non-Residential These are described below. Residential Sector Current energy consumption in the residential sector was measured for Bethel and each of the outlying villages through a survey of households.The regional high school system was used to employ students to survey their own homes and families.To- tal annual fuel supplies from fuel suppliers and distributors were also determined. A standard survey form was designed to record the amounts of the different types of energy (wood,fuel oil,electricity, propane,blazo)that were consumed for each end-use (cooking, space heating,water heating,lights and appliances).Exhibit 3 is a copy of the field survey questionnaire used in this study. An instructional period was alloted by each high school during which the purpose of the survey was explained.Each question was explained to the students to ensure they understood how to complete the survey form.The high school administration was extremely helpful in this process by providing a general assemb- ly of students out of their regular instructional period.The teachers and administration also encouraged students to parti- cipate and were helpful in collecting late returns and sending these completed forms in for compiling and processing.fThe re- sults are presented in the Regional Report and each Community Report. Non-Residential Sector Data on current energy consumption patterns for the non- residential sector were gathered from another survey that was conducted concurrently with the survey of households.Two sur- vey methods were employed,the first responding to the more diverse economy of Bethel as a regional center and the second to the smaller economy characteristic of the outlying villages. The energy consumption was analyzed for each group of economic activities that were defined during the analysis of the regional economy. ITI-1 The survey in Bethel involved interviews with the energy Suppliers.Their 1981 billing records were gathered for each business and government agency operating in the community and reorganized into the economic activities defined in the economic model.Records from Bethel Utilities Corporation,Chevron USA, and Hoffman Fuel Service provided the majority of data on the types and amounts of energy consumed within industry groupings. The major consumers in Bethel were also contacted to ascer- tain the purpose for which they consume these fuels.Major con- sumers in Bethel included the Lower Kuskokwim School District, U.S.Public Health Service Hospital,Bureau of Indian Affairs compound (west of Bethel),City of Bethel,Bethel Native Corpo- ration (apartment buildings and office building),FAA and air- port facilities,and the major businesses (e.g.,Swansons,AC Store,Kuskokwim Inn,etc.).Interviews with these major energy users also permitted a cross-check of suppliers'data. Energy consumption in the outlying villages was surveyed using a village-level energy use survey.This survey employed a standard form,presented on Exhibit 4,which was used to inter- view various people and firms.Typically,interviews were first conducted with the village bulk fuel distributors to estimate the total amount of various fuels entering the village and being consumed.Caution was exercised to eliminate fuels purchased by adjacent villagers and to include fuels purchased by individual households within the community from outside the village. Once estimates of total fuels were developed,the major consumers were interviewed.This included interviews with the village corporation about their power plant operations (if ap- plicable)and their village store and other local operations. Electric energy generation and distribution records were very difficult to obtain (if they existed at all)in the outlying villages.This often required an estimation of energy gener- ated from total fuel consumed during the year.Although inter- views were also conducted with both the high school and the BIA elementary (if applicable)schools,the data gathered was li- mited to the frequency with which they relied upon their back-up electric generating facilities.Better energy data for these large consumers were obtained through their centralized facility management offices in Bethel. Additional interviews were conducted throughout the village to contact remaining energy users.Of particular importance were the city and/or IRA offices.Information was gathered on heating and lighting of community buildings and on energy con- sumed by the community sewer,water,and laundry facilities. III-2 The results are presented in the Regional Report and in each Community Report. III-3 Chapter IV ENERGY DEMAND PROJECTIONS Three energy projection scenarios (Low,Most Likely,and High)were developed for the period 1982-2002.The Low Scenario reflects a conservative growth rate,derived from the low proj- ections of economic activities and population,large household size,and a real energy cost increase of 2.5 percent per year. The High Scenario assumes a continuation of the subsidized pre- sent situation,both at the energy and economic levels.It as- sumes a zero percent real increase in energy costs.The Most Likely Scenario is based on the most probable estimates of econ- omic activities,population,and household size projections.It also reflects a mid-range forecast of energy price trends. For the residential sector,future energy demands would be affected by the outcome of changes in population,average household size,and the annual consumption of each household. For the commercial and government sectors,future energy de- mands were judged to be related to the economic projections made for each activity.The economic projections are based on the sources and timing of changes in the existing economy. Discussions were held with local,regional,state,and federal agencies,as well as with village and regional corporations,to obtain their estimates of future growth or reduction in their projects and programs (2). Although the forecast periods extends to 2002,it was ex- tremely difficult to predict economic changes beyond 1987.For this reason,forecasting during the 1987-1992 and 1992-2002 pe- riod was accomplished,in many cases,by projecting a general- ized continuation of industry-by-industry trends,identified during the earlier years of the forecast. The projections were done for 1987,1992,and 2002.Ex- hibit 5 summarizes the electric energy demand projections for each community,and Exhibit 6 presents a detailed listing of socioeconomic data and end use energy comsumption projections. Pages 1,2 and 3 of Exhibit 6 present the Most Likely projec- tions for 1987,1992,and 2002,respectively.Pages 4,5,and 6 of Exhibit 6 present the Low Scenario,and pages 7,8,and 9 present the High Scenario.A description of these output tables was presented in Chapter II. Table IV-1l summarizes the energy demand for 1981 and 2002. The total energy demand is expected to increase at an annual average growth rate of 2.4 percent under the Most Likely Scena- rio,with a Low Scenario of 1.1 percent and a High Scenario of Iv-1 C-ALTable IV-1 TOTAL AND ELECTRIC ENERGY DEMAND BETHEL REGION Residential Sector Total Energy Demand (Btu x 106) Heating Demand Cooking Demand Lights and Appliances Total Electric Energy Demand (MWh) Commercial Sector Total Energy Demand (Btu x 196) Heating Demand Lights and Appliances Total Electric Energy Demand (MWh) Government Sector Total Energy Demand (Rtu x 10°) Heating Demand Lights and Appliances Total Electric Energy Demand (MWh) Total Regional DemandTotalEnergyDemand (Btu x 106)Electric Energy Demand (MWh)1/Peak Electrical Demand (kW)1/ 2002 Demand 1981 Low Demand Scenario 246,246 467,591 56,154 94,444 17,183 28,865 319,583 590,900 8,930 14,980 225,172 281,736 16,193 17,458 241,275 299,194 5,080 5,635 588,522 574,643 29,805 23,796 618,327 598,439 9,370 7,450 1,179,185 1,484,118 23,380 28,070 5,110 6,160 Most Likely High Scenario Scenario 601,940 744,686 121,694 153,576 37,026 45,602760,660 943,864 19,230 23,630 320,197 396,006 19,888 24,245 340,085 420,25] 6,280 7,650 801,072 930,722 33,711 42,399 834,803 973,121 10,665 13,310 1,930,103 2,330,571 36,180 44,600 7,935 9,780 1/These projections should be increased by 8 percent to obtain total electric energy generation. 3.3 percent.The electric energy demand is expected to in- crease at a lower average rate:2.1 percent under the Most Likely Scenario,with a Low Scenario of 0.9 percent and a High Scenario of 3.1 percent. The following paragraphs describe the projections for each of the major consumer sectors:residential,commercial,and government. Residential Sector Population Exhibit 7 shows the historical population picture for Bethel and the 12 villages between 1950 and 1980.The annual population growth rate has decreased over the years from an average of 4.7 percent between 1950 and 1960 to an average of 2.8 percent between 1970 and 1980.In 1980,the total popula- tion of the region was 6,719,with 52 percent in Bethel.The historical population growth rate of Bethel is about twice that of the villages.Since the 1960's,the population growth has been associated with the construction of large scale capital improvement projects and expansion of the commercial fishing industry.As a result,the racial composition in Bethel changed significantly from about 90 percent Alaskan Native in 1960 to about 68 percent in 1980,due to the immigration of non-Natives working on the capital improvement projects.In the villages, however,the racial composition has not changed significantly, remaining above 90 percent Alaskan Native.The age character- istics of the population have also changed.In 1970,the number of young people was high.About 55 percent of the population was younger than 17 years old.In 1980,that percentage was only about 45 percent. Three scenarios of population projections are presented on Exhibit 8.These projections were developed in conjunction with the three scenarios of economic projections which are presented in the following pages.The projected annual growth rates are based on historical trends,an evaluation of potential econo- mic growth for each village,and discussions with local demo- graphers.Certain villages appear to be less susceptible to expansion,while others are more dynamic and have progressive leadership with developed plans to actively seek new facilities, new housing and enterprises.The projections also reflect a general decline of state population growth rates as predicted by the U.S.Department of Commerce (3).These state projections estimate that the annual population growth rate will decrease from about 2 percent between 1981 and 1985 to l percent between 1995 and 2000. IV-3 In the Most Likely Scenario,the annual population growth rate for the total region is expected to decrease from about 2.8 percent between 1970 and 1980 to 2.0 percent between 1980 and 1992,and to 1.5 percent between 1992,and 2002.The total re- gional population is expected to increase from 6,719 in 1981 to 9,931 in 2002,with a Low projection of 9,105 and a High projec- tion of 10,405 in 2002. Household Size Exhibit 9 shows the changes in average household size be- tween 1970 and 1980 for each village.For the total region,the number of persons per household has decreased from an average of 4.9 in 1970 to 3.9 in 1980.In 1980,the average occupancy rate was about 3.3 in Bethel and 4.9 for the surrounding villages. Improved household income,supply of subsidized housing units, and immigration of non-Native workers were among the major reasons for this decline.In addition,the housing quality has improved,with the average floor space of the most recent- ly built homes averaging approximately 1,200 square feet. Based on the reductions in subsidized housing programs and comparison with other occupancy rates for similar communities, the household size is expected to decrease,in the future,at a much lower rate.Exhibit 9 also summarizes the projections of household size for each community.Three scenarios (High,Most Likely and Low)are presented which correspond to the population and economic scenarios.It is assumed that,for example,under the Low Scenario of economic activities and population,the average household size will decrease at a rate much slower than under the High Scenario of economic activities.By the year 2002 the regional average household size is expected to be between 2.9 and 3.6. Energy Demand As a result of the residential survey,an average house- hold energy consumption was derived for each community.The 1981 energy consumption varies between 111 and 216 million Btu per household.For the projections,the villages were combined into three groups,according to their household consumption. As shown on Exhibit 10,the first group has an average annual household consumption of less than 150 million Btu;the second group between 150 and 180 million Btu,and the third group over 180 million Btu.Annual growth rates were estimated for each range and are presented on Exhibit 10 for the High,Most Likely and Low Scenarios.It was also assumed that the future cost of electricity would not become much more competitive with fuel oil or other heating fuels,and thus the 1981 energy mode split would not change. Iv-4 Exhibit 6 gives a detailed presentation of the end-use energy demand projections for the total region.Similar ex- hibits are presented in Appendix G for each community. Table IV-2 summarizes the 1981 and 2002 average household electric energy consumption. Table IV-2 ANNUAL ELECTRIC ENERGY DEMAND PER HOUSEHOLD 2002 Demand 1981 Comiunity Demand Low Most Likely High (kWh)(kWh)(kWh)(kWh) Akiachak 2,195 2,829 3,035 3,286 Akiak 2,433 3,147 3,348 3,639 Atmautluak 1,621 1,844 2,013 2,125 Bethel 6,778 7,388 8,067 8,542 Eek 2,574 3,367 3,599 3,848 Kasigluk 2,133 2,430 2,630 2,783 Kwethluk 2,250 2,892 3,083 3,333 Napakiak 4,150 5,160 5,547 5,997 Napaskiak 2,756 3,584 3,998 4,126 Nunapitchuk 2,170 2,460 2,685 2,852 Oscarville 2,759 3,477 3,608 3,931 Tuluksak 2,937 3,783 4,008 4,361 Tuntutuliak 1,611 1,875 2,061 2,277 The average household electric energy use is expected to increase at an average annual growth rate of 1.0 percent under the Most Likely Scenario.MThe regional residential electricity demand is expected to increase from 8,930 MWh in 1981 to 19,230 MWh in 2002 under the Most Likely Scenario,with a low demand of 14,980 MWh and a high demand of 23,630 MWh. Commercial Sector Commercial Activities At the beginning of this study,a follow-up survey was con- ducted by Darbyshire and Associates to update their analysis of the Bethel economy,which was performed in 1979 for the prepara- tion of the Bethel Comprehensive Plan.In addition,the economy of the outlying villages was analyzed. Being the major supply center for the 56 villages of the Association of Village Council Presidents (AVCP),Bethel serves IV-5 as the commercial center of the region.Food,fuel,gravel,and construction materials are supplied by barge from Seattle and and other locations and distributed from Bethel to villages in the region.Warehouses and fuel storage tanks to serve regional demands are located in Bethel.The city is also a center for services.These include banking and insurance,construction contractors,charter flights,machinery repair,and other serv- ices. In the outlying villages,employment opportunities exist mostly with construction projects which provide temporary jobs for village residents.A 1977 survey in six villages of the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta found that only about 22 percent of the population were employed full time (4).Commercial fisheries provide a substantial cash income for purchases of commercial goods and services and supplies for subsistence fishing.Resi- dents of the riverine,tundra,and coastal villages primarily work in the Kuskokwim commercial salmon fisheries,though some residents prefer the Bristol Bay fisheries. Table IV-3 summarizes the regional employment and earnings for 1981 and 2002 under the most likely scenario.It should be noted that the employment numbers listed for each activity do not necessarily indicate full-time employment.More than one of these positions may be held by one person simultaneously or by the same person at different times of the year.Projections for 1987 and 1992,as well as for the low and high scenarios are given in Exhibit 6. The following paragraphs describe potential sources of economic change for each activity and provide schedules as to when these changes might occur. Renewable Resource Harvesting.Subdivisions comprising this industry include: 1.salmon fishery; 2.herring fisheries; 3.hunting and guiding (hunting,camping and floating excursions); 4.fur trapping;and 5.local woodcutting and lumbering. IV-6 Table IV-3 COMMERCIAL SECTOR AVERAGE EMPLOYMENT AND EARNINGS Most Likely Scenario 1981 2002 Commercial Activity Employment Farnings Employment Earnings (1981 $)(1981 $) Renewable Resource Harvesting 99 1,236,000 123 1,552,000 Mining &Exploration 5 50,000 37 372,000 Construction 481 5,755,000 602 7,221,000 Household Manufacturing 17 91,000 20 109,000 Transportation 308 4,812,000 396 6,193,000 Wholesale,Distribution 105 996,000 137 1,250,000 Communications,Utilities 70 1,007,000 96 1,364,000 Trade &Private Services 403 4,640,000 478 5,502,000 Finance &Real Estate 74 1,003,000 95 1,269,000 Total 1,562 19,590,000 1,984 24,832,000 1V-7 Salmon Fishery:Due to recent food poisoning from canned salmon,frozen salmon demand is expected to slacken temporarily. Market prices will not change noticeably,resulting in regional earnings of approximately $.8 million for 1982.Larger than average fish populations are expected during the next seasons resulting in larger allowable catches.Assuming market prices consistent with those of the past 5 years,total annual earn- ings during this period will rise to about $1.5 million by 1987. No major changes in salmon harvest levels or quotas are current- ly planned by the Alaska Department of Fish and Game (ADF&G). Major investments are,however,being planned by the ADF&G that will improve field data gathering and resource management tech- niques.This may have a long-range stabilizing effect on the fishery,and possibly result in increased harvests.These im- provements,however,are not expected to affect the fishery har- vest volume in the short term.As a result,the 1987 regional level was kept constant under the most likely scenario for the period 1987-2002.For the high scenario,an average annual in- crease of 1.5 percent is projected for the period 1987-2002. Under the low scenario,the earnings are only expected to in- crease to 1.2 million by 1987,and thereafter,remain constant. Another source of growth in this industry is in the local processing of these resources before they are shipped out of the region.At present no processing takes place in Bethel beyond the extraction of roe (i.e.,fish eggs)and the sliming and icing of fish in preparation for transport to outside proces- sors.The recent installation of a cold storage facility in Bethel will provide a basis for actual fish processing opera- tions to develop,and will help stabilize prices.The NANA Re- gional Corporation has backed a similar effort in its region in order to foster more local employment in connection with its re- sources.Their efforts have added 10,000 man-hours of work in the local salmon fishery to the local labor force,and provided an additional $40,000 annually to the local economy.The most likely and high assumptions made in this study assume that an additional $30,000 annual income will be earned in this industry as a result of expansions into fish processing. Herring Fishery:Currently a new herring fishery is open- ing along the coastline of the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta.Limited entry permits for herring fishing in Goodnews Bay,Security Cove,and Cape Romanzof are being issued to a few residents of Bethel.Activity related to herring fishing must take place be- fore the Kuskokwim River can be expected to thaw.Hence,trans- port to Bethel is difficult,and most industrial development re- lated to this resource is not expected to locate in Bethel.The high development scenario,however,assumes that some support and processing activity will occur in Bethel. IV-8 Estimates by the Alaska Department of Fish and Game indi- cate that the value of catch per fisherman for herring may equal that enjoyed by salmon fishermen.Because of Bethel's role as a regional supply center,Bethel will benefit indirectly from the added regional income produced by the herring fishery.Purchase of consumer items and associated transportation using herring fishery income will benefit Bethel. Hunting and Guiding:No major changes from levels measured during the 1981 survey are expected under the low and most like- ly scenario.Although there is,currently,no commercial sport- ing facilities in Bethel,there is good potential.Under the high scenario,the 1981 total earnings are expected to increase at an average annual growth rate of 5 percent. Fur Trapping:There is no real potential to increase the supply of fur resources above their current levels.AS a re- sult,no significant changes are expected. Firewood and Building Timber Harvesting:Transfer of large amounts of land into local control will stimulate development of timber resources to meet local demands.Beginning in 1983, small-scale timber harvesting for fuel and building timbers will result in the creation of one employment position in each vil- lage every two years under the most likely and low scenarios. Under the high scenario,it is anticipated that greater demand for both firewood and home construction materials will place existing timber resources into a local industry production mode to meet the local demand.In addition to the individual jobs created in each village,a $250,000 a year industry will emerge under this scenario.This will provide approximately 10 year- round positions to the local employment force. Mining and Exploration.Although coal and peat resources have been identified in the region,their development is cur- rently unfeasible,They are not included in any scenarios. Recently renewed platinum mining operations are expected to maintain current levels throughout the forecast period. Due to the recent cancellation of several proposed federal leasing programs in the Norton Basin and Chukchi Sea,and the long lead-time requirements (based upon past industry perform- ance and regulatory requirements)for development of discovered reserves,actual oil and gas field development is considered unlikely before the year 2000 under all of the projection scena-rios,Therefore,only the extremely limited exploration phase of oil and gas activities will be considered as affecting the local economy during the forecast period. Iv-9 Geophysical crews are expected to be rotated out of major centers such as Fairbanks or Anchorage.Nonetheless,it is as- sumed that a few individuals from Bethel will join these crews in 1985.These positions will be maintained throughout the forecast period for the most likely scenario.Under the high scenario,activities relating to the support of on-shore explor- ation programs are expected to bring an additional $1.0 million annually from both direct employment and from increased demands on local support industries (i.e.airport facilities,lodging, etc.). Construction.The construction industry includes: 1.HUD and Bartlett replacement homes; 26 Local housing industry;and 3.State and federal capital improvements. HUD and Bartlett Replacement Homes:A HUD housing program (i.e.,162 new and Bartlett replacement homes)is currently underway.This construction program will be greatly reduced after 1982.Under the most likely scenario,it is expected that large reductions in federal funding will reduce the total number of homes provided by regional housing programs to three homes each year for each village.Under the low scenario a more dras- tic reduction in the federal housing program is expected.It assumes that both Bethel and the outlying villages of this re- gion will not be granted additional housing beyond their 1984 approved programs.Recent announcements by HUD indicate a poli- cy to abandon the home construction industry and to limit its involvement to annual upgrading and maintenance of the existing housing stock activities.This action would have the effect of virtually eliminating approximately half of the present poten- tial housing supply to this region.MThis would reduce the an- nual construction industries contribution to the local economy by $2.0 million beginning during the 1984 construction season. Local Housing Industry:The private housing market in Bethel shows immediate signs of expansion.Recent changes in federal employee housing policies encourages federal agency per- sonnel to lease and purchase on the local housing market.Pos- sible increased federal and state employment (due to decentrali- zation of administrative agencies from Anchorage to Bethel)and the PHS Comprehensive Health Facility expansion would serve to stimulate the local private home building industry.The Tundra Ridge Development Company,which owns 160 acres of unimproved land,has planned a subdivision of 300 residential lots with additional commercial and industrial property. Other conditions may also stimulate the construction of new housing.The replacement of portions of the present housing Iv-10 stock that are in poor condition may produce additional con- struction.Often,in Bethel,rents exceed expected mortgage payments.This situation encourages speculation in individualhomebuildingbysmallcontractors.It is estimated that be- tween three and five homes will be built each year by small, self-employed contractors.Owner-built housing is also fairly common in Bethel,and is another factor which adds to the local housing supply. State and Federal Capital Improvements:The remainder of the construction industry is associated with erection and main- tenance of public buildings and facilities,primarily the con- struction of regional high schools.However,school construc-- tion in the Yukon-Kuskokwim region has reached its peak and is expected to decline and reach completion by 1984.Because a great portion of these major public facilities were awarded to contractors outside the region,this cutback is not expected to affect,to any noticeable degree,locally-based construction firms. Recently completed major building projects include the PHS Comprehensive Health Facility,the FAA tower at Bethel's air- port,the Alaska Commercial store,the Bethel Native Corporation office building,a Senior Citizens Center,a State Correctional facility,and a new city fire hall.Based on this past activi- ty,it is assumed that building construction activity will de- cline slightly at a 5 percent rate until 1987 and remain steady throughout the remainder of the forecast. The construction of village roads and airports throughout the Yukon-Kuskokwim region provides the largest volume of work for heavy construction contractors.Some mechanical contracting and utility construction throughout the region is done by local firms,but a vast majority of more specialized contracts are awarded to outside contractors. In estimating the economic gains of a large capital out- lay project on a remote economy such as Bethel,care tust be exercised to eliminate those services,administrative costs, and degree of fabrication provided by outside industries which greatly reduce the local economic benefits of the project.The reliance on imported labor (which typically resides in company- provided construction camps and rotates from outside union halls)drastically reduces the income that actually enters the local economy.Each planned project must be individually anal- yzed to reduce its full funded value to the actual level of local income that can be expected to accrue through locally- provided labor and capital. Iv-1l The most likely scenario includes the completion of the $5 million improvements to Bethel's airport;the extension,widen- ing or improvement of existing roads;and the construction of a small boat harbor to replace the present Brown's Slough facili- ties. The construction of a seawall has only been included in the high scenario.This project,a massive undertaking,calls for placement of steel sheet piling and backfill to prevent the Kuskokwim River from further eroding and destroying residential buildings,public infrastructure (schools,streets,public safe- ty,etc.),and commercial/industrial property.Aside from its direct boost to the construction industry,this project also offers long-range benefits and investment stability for vital ocean-and river-oriented transportation facilities in Bethel. This project might begin during the 1984 construction season and last for the following 3 construction seasons.Planners expect this project to involve between 25 to 30 new full-time positions in the construction industry.This increase in construction de- mand will bring an additional $1.5 million dollars annually to the local economy from both direct labor and required support services. In addition,construction demand in the Yukon-Kuskokwim region will increase considerably with the realization of plan- ned improvements in public housing and improved village water, sewer,and solid waste disposal facilities.Other regional construction projects are expected to be funded by regional and village corporation activities.Altogether,these regional projects are estimated to increase total Bethel-based construc- tion and supplier activities by a 5 percent annual rate over the 1981 survey level until the year 1992.A more modest rate of 3 percent is assumed for the remainder of the forecast period. Household Manufacturing.Subdivisions comprising this industry include: l.Eskimo Artifacts (i.e.,wood,bone,ivory,soapstone carvings,jewelry making,yo-yo's,skin thimbles, calfskin jewelry boxes); 2.Skin Sewing (i.e.,parkas,fur mukluks and slippers); and 3.Implement Manufacturing (i.e.,boat and dogsled con- struction and the making of hunting and fishing gear). Eskimo Artifacts:Statewide and local efforts in tourism promotion and marketing are expected to increase local tourism. Historically,demand for local crafts has been almost entirely IV-12 local.However,improvements in the local tourist industry and in marketing are expected to increase the craft sales.A 5 per- cent annual increase is projected under the most likely scena- rio,2 percent under the low scenario,and 8 percent under the high scenario. Skin Sewing:Although this industry has high potential for commercial export development,no major changes are expected under the low and most likely scenarios.The high scenario in- cludes the introduction of a tannery which could employ 5 people locally during the winter "off-season". industry.The yearly decline recently experienced is expected to continue through 1985.Thereafter,this industry is assumed to stabilize and maintain 1985 levels. Transportation.Subdivisions comprising this industry in- clude: l.Scheduled Airlines: 2.Charter Air Taxi Services; 3.Ocean Barging and River Lighterage;and 4.Taxi Cabs and Other Freight-Hauling Services Scheduled Airlines:Operating levels of Wien Airlines will follow the projections made for the other local industries (es- pecially mining and government)and local populations.Cutbacks in federal freight hauling subsidies to outlying villages will cause a slight reduction in operating levels to this airline. Air Taxi Operations:Businesses engaged in local air taxi operations will remain dependent on local markets and changes in other industries (especially in future mining activity,village housing construction and regional education). Ocean Barging and River Lighterage:Locally based water- borne carriers exist only as a support industry to other local industries (e.g.,retail trade,fuel distributors)and house- holds.Changes in barging activity will depend entirely upon changes brought about by other industries (e.g.,mining and construction). A test to determine the feasibility of air cushion freight vehicles which could operate during winter months on the frozen Kuskokwim River is under study.However,it is expected that this potential new form of transportation will not have a major impact on the economy. The high development scenario assumes the construction of a road connection between the Yukon and Kuskokwim Rivers,causing IV-13 regional demand for dock facilities and river barging to double present levels of freight transfer by river barge.This high scenario will cause approximately a 20 percent increase in em- ployment in this industry upon completion of these facilities around 1985. Taxicabs and Other Freight-Hauling Services:Any changes in business levels will be caused by changes in other local businesses and changes in local population. Wholesale,Warehousing and Distribution.This support in- dustry 1S not a source of change,but rather is affected by changes in other local industries. Communications and Utilities.Communications in Bethel include a satellite telecommunications service,separate tele- phone utility company,local public television,FM radio sta- tion,and private TV cable service.Demand for these services will grow in proportion to the region's population and level of economic activity. There is the potential for a greatly expanded communica- tions system in the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta.The widespread use of teleconferences and other types of communications links be- tween villages in the region may soon become common.State funding will be required to provide continued support for expan- sion of the communication network.An expanded communications network could have both positive and negative economic effects. First,there would be employment created in Bethel related to operation and management of the communications services.Con- versely,however,more efficient communications could reduce the dependence on face-to-face meetings and discussions.This would result in a decreased use of air transportation services,since a substantial portion of air charter and air taxi traffic is re- lated to transporting people to and from meetings.These en- ployment gains and losses would tend to balance each other,and the resulting overall effect on the economy should be fairly limited. This forecast analysis is part of an overall study to de- termine the best alternatives to meet electricity demand and space heating requirements of the Bethel region.Several energy plans,including the development of a hydropower project and a steam-coal powerplant,are under study.Initially,Bethel and surrounding communities might be linked into an electrical grid, with the potential of extending the power network to other Delta communities.In addition to reducing the high utility costs for village households,this energy source would stimulate addition- al economic activity and generally improve employment opportuni- ties throughout the region. Iv-14 The major impacts on the region from these large energy re- source projects will be primarily during the construction pe- riod.The development of a regional power project was included in the high and most likely scenarios.A continuation of diesel generation was assumed under the low scenario. Trade and Private Services.This industry is not a primary source of economic change,but rather is affected by changes in other local industries (especially construction and public serv- ices)and changes in local population. Finance and Real Estate.Subdivisions comprising this industry include: 1.Real Estate; 2 Investment;(e.g.,investment areas of village and regional Native corporations);and 3.Finance and Credit. Real Estate:Dependence on a local housing market (i.e., owner-built,locally-financed)will be greatly expanded follow- ing cutbacks in housing supplied by HUD after 1983.Rents and other forins of income from privately developed real estate will result in additional earnings equal to two employment positions in Bethel each year after 1984. Local real estate activity,and speculation in property improvements,are expected to increase considerably.This re- sults in a larger number of income generating properties,both residential and industrial,owned by local investors,allowing rents and interests to remain longer within the local economy. This investment demand is currently being analyzed by the United Bank of Alaska which opened a branch bank in Bethel,directly employing four people in 1981. No significant changes are expected in the development of new commercial facilities by local investors. Investments:The Bethel Native Corporation (BNC)expects to see a gain in returns from earlier investments in local hous- ing and commercial improvements and from its investment in the local fisheries of the region.Increasing returns will mean greater employment for property management personnel,as expan- sion of these ventures continues.In addition,development of BNC's vast land holdings,in and around the immediate vicinity of Bethel,should generate additional property revenues.In- creased earnings by BNC will also mean increased dividends for its shareholders,who,by and large,are residents of Bethel. IV-15 Increases in local income from these dividends should cause re- latively little economic impact before 1990. The Calista Regional Corporation is not expected to become an active investor locally before 1990.Calista shareholders are dispersed throughout the Yukon-Kuskokwim region,and little direct economic impact in Bethel is expected from increased di- vidends earned from Calista investments outside of the region. Finance and Credit:Local financing institutions provide the added benefit of retaining local earnings,in the form of savings,within the local economy.These increases in the pro- pensity of the investment dollar to remain locally are not,how- ever,expected to yield significant returns locally before 1990. Increases in local financial institution employment is consi- dered the most significant growth element in the local economy contributed by this portion of the Finance,Insurance and Real Estate industry.Together,the availability of both land and capital under local control represents a source of long-term growth for the Finance,Insurance and Real Estate industry. This potential for growth will not be the typical boom of out- side investments,but will be in keeping with long-term economic stability.This,in turn,will promote growth in the Finance industry in Bethel. Energy Demand As a result of the series of interviews with fuel suppliers and major consumers,an estimate of the 1981 consumption by end use was made.The results are presented in Exhibit 2.Because there are no major changes expected in the composition of the commercial sector and no energy-intensive projects under con- struction or being considered,the energy projections were judged to be directly related to the economic projections.The future end-use energy requirements of each commercial activity were computed based on the 1981 consumption data and the ratio of future earnings (expressed in 1981 dollars)to the 1981]earn- ings of that activity.For example,the 1987 space heating re- quirements of the "Construction"activity (11,099 million Btu as shown on Exhibit 6 page 1 of 9,Row 3,Column 5)is equal to the 1981 consumption (10,981 million Btu as shown on Exhibit 2, Row 3,Column 5)multiplied by the 1987 earnings ($5,817,000 as shown on Exhibit 6 page 1 of 9,Row 3,Column 1)and divided by the 1981 earnings ($5,755,000 as shown on Exhibit 2,Row 3,Co- lumn 1).As for the residential sector,it was also assumed that the 1981 energy mode split would not change significantly. A detailed presentation of the regional energy forecasts is given in Exhibit 6 for the three scenarios.Similar exhibits are presented in Appendix G for each community.Table Iv-4 IV-16 Commercial Activity Renewable Resource Harvesting Mining &Exploration Construction Household Manufacturing Transportation Wholesale,Distribution Communications,Utilities Trade &Private Services Finance &Real Estate Total Table Iv-4 COMMERCIAL SECTOR ELECTRIC ENERGY DEMAND 2002 Demand 1981 Low Most Likely High Demand Scenario Scenario Scenario (Mwh)(MWh)(MWh)(MWh) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 187 243 235 351ol/ol/o3/ol/ 716 815 922 1,097 304 375 383 468 571 675 774 987 2,736 2,825 3,242 3,906 569 575 722 841 5,083 5,508 6,278 7,650 l/Included in Residential Demand IV-17 summarizes the 1981 and 2002 electric energy demand.Under the Most Likely Scenario,the electric energy demand is expected to increase from 5,083 MWh in 1981 to 6,278 MWh in 2002,which corresponds to an average annual growth rate of 1.0 percent. Government Sector Government Activities Bethel is the regional seat of government for federal, state,and regonal agencies.As such,public agenices located there and serving the region include the AVCP housing programs, AVCP manpower offices,Yukon-Kuskokwin Health Corporation,Pub- lic Health Service Hospital,Bureau of Indian Affairs,Kuskokwin Community College,Lower Kuskokwin School District,and _theAlaskaDepartmentofHealthandSocialServices.In the outly- ing villages,employment opportunities exist with the village government,schools,health clinic,and post office. Table IV-5 summarizes the regional employment and earnings for 1981 and 2002 under the Most Likely Scenario.Projections for 1987 and 1992,as well as for the Low and High Scenarios are given in Exhibit 5. The following paragraphs describe the potential sources of economic change for each activity and provide schedules as to when these changes might occur. Non-Profit Organizations.Subdivisions comprising this industry include: l.Housing,Education,Health and Social Services;and 2.Manpower Training (CETA) Housing,Education,Health and Social Services:Current- ly,the state and federal governments are directly and indirect- ly the sources of funding for most regional services and social programs administered in Bethel.MThe direct administration and operation of these publicly-funded services and programs ac- count for approximately 5 percent of Bethel's total employment. Still,many of these programs are administered by central gov- ernmental agencies outside the Yukon-Kuskokwim region. The federal Indian Self-Determination Act of 1975 (PL 93- 638)mandated that a greater share of the administration of Native American service-oriented programs be provided by Native organizations.In Bethel,such service contractors includeYukonKuskokwimHealthCorporationandtheAssociationofVil- lage Council Presidents (AVCP,Inc.).Decentralization of ad- ministration for these programs would serve to increase program IV-18 Government Activity Non-Profit Organizations Local and Reg.Government State Agencies Federal Agencies Transfer Payments Total Table IV-5 GOVERNMENT SECTOR AVERAGE EMPLOYMENT AND EARNINGS Most Likely Scenario 1981 2002 Employment Earnings Employment Earnings (1981 $)(1981 $) 227 2,942,000 308 3,956,000 972 16,078,000 1,274 21,076,000 101 1,298,000 144 1,869,000 228 3,181,000 191 2,703,000 -11,106,000 -13,105,000 1,528 34,605,000 1,917 42,709,000 IV-19 responsiveness locally,and also transfer high level administra- tive and related jobs from major centers,such as Anchorage,to the local level.This transfer of both jobs and responsiveness would increase the relative "value"of these programs in Bethel without requiring increases in overall funding levels. In summary,the low scenario is based upon the belief that further major cuts are upcoming in the federal sponsorship of service programs administered by this industry.The $3.0 mil- lion earned by service providers,their administrators,and support staff will be reduced by one-third by the year 1986. These reduced levels will be maintained throughout the remainder of the forecast.Under the most-likely scenario,the service program administered by this industry will be reduced to those levels already announced in the federal budget.No state take- overs of these programs are expected due to anticipated reduc- tions in the state's oil revenue.Under the high scenario,no changes are anticipated in the 1981 levels.Neither an increase nor a decrease in funding levels is assumed. Manpower Training (CETA):No major changes are expected in the CETA Title III program during the forecast period.An elimination of public service employment occurred during 1981. Private sector employment training is expected to be maintained at current levels until 1983.After 1983,this program will increase at a 2%annual rate under the most likely scenario. Local and Regional Government.Subdivisions comprising this industry include: l.City Governments; 2.IRA and Traditional IRA Councils;and 3.Lower Kuskokwim School District City Government:Major reductions in city personnel are expected in 1982 and 1983 due to elimination of the Public Ser- vice Employment Program under CETA (see Non-Profit).However, these major cutbacks will be softened by additional state fund- ing.A 15%reduction in city employment levels is expected until 1985.Major reductions in city services in outlying vil- lages are expected to continue until 1985,regardless of cur- rently planned major infrastructure improvements to sanitation and other public facilities. Traditionally,community services relating to health,safe- ty,and welfare are provided by local government.Because of the high costs for facilities in the Bethel region,such serv- ices as sewer,water,and local roads and streets are often only feasible with large state and federal matching capital improve- ment funds.As the economy expands,or as federal programs IV-20 bring Bethel up to meet national environmental health standards, these systems will also expand.Expansion of municipal utili- ties will create permanent "operating and maintenance"jobs.It is expected that five permanent jobs will be added annually to Bethel's municipal works departments,due both to upgrading of services and the expanding population demand. IRA Councils:No changes are expected in program or staff- ing levels under these federally-sponsored oryanizations. Lower Kuskokwim School District:Additional program and staffing increases of 3%annually are expected to continue until 1987.School employment levels achieved in 1987 will be main- tained on a village per-capita basis throughout the remainder of the forecast. Both public education and vocational training programs pro- vide an important source of income and employment in Bethel's economy,as well as improving the region's human resources. Although vocational training has been funded primarily through the CETA program (which is being phased out),other public fund- ing sources are expected to assume responsibility for this edu- cational service.For this reason,the baseline economic proj- ections assume that this program will not change from its pre- sent level.The low economic forecast,however,assumes a 25 percent reduction in federal funding levels. State Agencies and Services.Subdivisions comprising this industry include: l.State Offices;and 2.Community College. State Offices:Staffing of all state offices will remain at constant per capita levels.No closing of current offices or creation of new offices is planned. Community College:Renewed funding for the college faci- lity will provide eight full-time positions starting in 1982 and renaining constant throughout the forecast period.The Kus- kokwim Community College,together with the Lower Kuskokwim School District,is presently experiencing a decline in enroll- ment.However,it is expected that enrollment has bottomed out, and,with a redefining of priorities (e.g.,acquiring dorm faci- lities,increased emphasis on skills training,etc.),these trends may be slightly reversed.In conclusion,these educa- tional trends should combine to maintain current per capita service levels.The deflating trend of decentralization has nearly bottomed out,and increases in educational employment should follow population changes. IV-21 Federal Agencies and Services.Subdivisions comprising this industry include: l.Federal Administrative Offices; 2.Hospital; 3.U.S.Coast Guard:and 4.Land and Resources Management. Federal Administrative Offices:The level of FAA employ- ment is expected to be reduced to 50%of the current figure.By 1988,these levels will be reduced to one position.No changes are anticipated in weather data-gathering and reporting person- nel. Major changes are currently under way in the relationship between American Natives and the federal government (i.e.,PL 93-638).The net effect of these changes will be felt in both the size of future programs,and the program administrators' responsibilities.Many of the BIA positions in Bethel adminis- tering health and social programs in the Yukon-Kuskokwim region will be eliminated.Their repsonsibilities and employment posi- tions will simply be transferred to the local non-profit organi-zations.Under the most likely scenario,federal program sup- port is expected to be reduced by 40%by 1984.State support is expected to compensate for these overall program losses thereby maintaining 1981 expenditure and employment levels. PHS Hospital:The recent completion of the new Comprehen- sive Health Facility has added new personnel to the regional health facility.Further increases in staffing levels will be sought to fulfill the unmet service needs identified in the Tribal Specific Health Plan prepared by the PHS in 1979.Cur- rently,their expectations are not being met due to federal cut- backs.Annual funding levels are currently being held at 1980 levels which,in effect,cause an actual reduction in services due to inflation.This process is expected to continue until 1985,whereby these per capita service levels will be maintained and increased in response to regional population growth.Plans for the post-1985 period call also for health service attention directed toward improvements in environmental health for the regional villages (e.g.,safe water,sewage treatment,solid waste disposal,etc.).These improvements are included in the high scenario. U.S.Coast Guard:No changes in U.S.Coast Guard personnel levels are anticipated during this forecast. Land and Resources Management:Increases in federal land management responsibilities will add two positions each year starting in 1982 and continuing through 1986.These new posi- IV-22 tions will be maintained throughout the remainder of the fore- cast. Both the Alaska Department of Fish and Game and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service have offices in Bethel.The potential for conflicts between subsistence,commercial and sport uses of wildlife will create a demand for better field data gathering, game law enforcement and monitoring,and research/development into these resource issues.A major expansion program is plan- ned to meet these increased demands.A three or fourfold in- crease in present personnel levels is considered a fair assess- ment of this expansion and is included in the forecast. As included in the high scenario,the opening of a timber industry within the region is expected to generate entirely new resource management positions.Oil and gas development in the Bering Sea would also generate new positions for the local Pub- lic Administration agency.It is estimated that 10 more employ- ment positions will open up in the field of fish,game,and timber resource management by 1985 due to the state's land con- veyance processes and increased access to land resources. Transfer Payments.A special source of income,for a re- mote region,is transfer payments.Transfer payments are a form of unearned income which is received directly by residents from private and public sources and are not influenced by changing levels of local industrial activity.It includes old age pen- sions,unemployment relief,social security,public assistance, etc. Transfer payments enter Bethel's economy through spending in local markets (primarily personal consumption expenditures) and,in turn,benefit those industries serving these markets. In 1981,an estimated $4.5 million in transfer payments entered Bethel's economy. Sizeable reductions in federal contributions to these transfer payments are anticipated to occur between 1981 and 1987.These reductions will occur mainly in the BIA general assistance and welfare payment areas.After 1987,the payments are expected to maintain a constant per capita level.Under the low scenario,a 40 percent reduction was projected for 1987.A 10 percent reduction was projected under the most likely sce- nario. Energy Demand As a result of the series of interviews with fuel suppliers and major consumers,an estimate of the 1981 consumption by end use was made.The results are presented in Exhibit 2.Because there are no major changes expected in the energy consumption IV-23 pattern of the government sector,the energy projections were judged to be directly related to the economic projections.As for the commercial sector,the future energy requirements were computed based on the 1981 consumption rate and the ratio of fu- ture earnings (expressed in 1981 dollars)to the 1981 earnings. It was also assumed that the 1981 energy mode split would not change signficantly. A detailed presentation of the regional energy forecasts is given in Exhibit 6 for the three scenarios.Similar exhibits are presented in Appendix G for each community.Table IV-6 sum- marizes the 1981 and 2002 electric energy demand. Under the Most Likely Scenario,the electric energy demand is expected to increase from 9,370 MWh in 1981 to 10,664 MWh in 2002,which corresponds to an average annual grouth rate of 0.6 percent.Due to potential major reductions in state and federal programs,the Low Scenario shows a 20 percent reduction in elec- tric energy demand between 1981 and 2002.An average annual growth rate of 1.7 percent is expected under the high scenario. IV-24 Economic Activity Non-Profit Organizations Local and Reg.Government State Agencies Federal Agencies Total Table IV-6 GOVERNMENT SECTOR ELECTRIC ENERGY DEMAND 1981 Demand (MWh) 132 4,960 586 3,692 9,370 IV-25 2002 Demand Low Most LikelyScenarioScenario (MWh )(Mwh) 126 178 5,197 6,503 557 845 1,697 3,138 7,577 10,664 High Scenario (MWh) 161 6,790 821 5,538 13,310 REFERENCES Darbyshire and Associates,"City of Bethel Comprehensive Development Plan,"Vol.II through VI,Anchorage,Alaska, 1980. Case,David S.1978.The Special Relationship of AlaskaNativestotheFederalGovernment.Alaska Native Founda-tion.175 p. Darbyshire &Associates.1982.AVCP Regional Government Study.Data Reconnaissance chapter.29 p. Darbyshire &Associates.1980.City of Bethel Comprehensive Plan. Homan Associates.1975.Alaskan Coastal Community Profiles. Prepared for Alaska Department of Environmental Conserva- tion. Marsh,Ben.1972.Alaska Community Survey.Alaska Planning and Management,Inc.Anchorage,Alaska.1003 p. United States Department of the Interior.Bureau of Land Management.June 9,1982.Easement Progress Report. 324 p. Wallers,Michael.Tribal-State Relationships:A New Para-digm for Local Government in Alaska.Tanana Chiefs Con-ference.80 p. Telephone conversations with: Miller Lutton,HUD,Anchorage,3/29/82 Edna Fremlin,ASHA,Anchorage,3/30/82 Jim Kass,Lower Kuskokwim School District,Bethel 3/30/82 Agnes Devlin,Yukon-Kuskokwim Health Corp.,Bethel,3/31/82 John Hamilton ,U.S.PHS,Anchorage,3/31/82 Elizabeth Montgomery,U.S.Post Office,Anchorage,3/31/82 Jim Duffy,AVCP Housing Authority,Bethel,4/7/82 Fran Thompson,BLM,ANCSA,Anchorage,6/17/82 Peter McGee,HUD,Anchorage,6/17/82 Terry Hoefferle,DCRA,LGAD,Bethel,6/17/82 George Cannelos,Bethel Native Corporation,Bethel,6/19/82 Jacob Ipchook,City Clerk,Kwethluk,6/21/82 Jackson Williams,Mayor,Akiak,6/22/82 Joseph Alexie,Tuluksak,6/22/82 Alaska,State of.Department of Commerce.Population Projec- tions. Renewable Resources Mining &Exploration Whol.Distribution Trade,Pvt Sves. Finance &Real Est. Local &Reg.Govt. Federal Agencies 1. 2. 3.Construciton 4.Household Mfg. 5.Transportation 6. 7.Comm,Utilities 8. 9. 10.Non Profit Org. ll. 12.State Agencies 13. 14."Value Added" 1/Distribution expressed as cents on a total revenue dollar. TYPICAL DISTRIBUTION OF EARNINGSL/ Exhibit 1 Mining &Household Whol,Comm.Trade Fin.Non-Local State ;Renewable Explora-Constuc-Manufac-Trans-Distri-Utili-Pvt.&Real Profit &Reg.Agen-Federal Local Outside Resources tion tion turing potation bution ties Sves Estate Org.Govt cies Agencies Market Market TOTAL ---0.04 -0.90 -------0.06 -1.00 --0.05 ----------0.04 0.91 1.00 -0.01 0.35 --0.90 -0.01 0.02 ----0.08 0.44 1.00 -------------0.75 0.25 1.00 N.01 0.01 0.10 -0.05 0.11 -0.03 -0.03 0.06 0.04 0,01 0.40 0.15 1.00 --0.02 ---0.20 0.12 -----0.11 0.55 1.00 --0.01 -0.01 0.07 0.15 0.02 0,06 0.04 0.05 0.04 0.13 0.42 1.00 0.01 -0.03 -0,01 --0.04 -0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.66 0.21 1.00 ----0,04 --0.10 -0.15 0.02 0.01 -0.63 0.05 1.00 --------0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.04 0.92 1.00 --0.01 -0.01 -0.01 0.01 -----0.08 0.88 1.00 --------------1.00 1.00 --------------1.00 1.00 0.02 0.01 0.06 0.01 0.14 0.03 0.02 0.10 0.02 0.08 0.27 0.03 0.08 -0.13 1.00 BETHEL AREA POWER STUDY FORECAST 1981 ANNUAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION PROFILE,BETHEL AREA,Alaska -End-Use ConsumptionTotalJ. Total Total Elect-Space Water Light & SECTOR Income Emplymt ricity Cooking Heating Heating Applian Somer nee reece rere ($000)(No.)--=(Million Btu)----<-<----<---- COMMERCIAL Renew.Res.Harvest 1236 99 0 0 0 0 0 Mining &Exploration 50 5 0 0 0 0 0 Construction 5755 481 639 0 10981 0 639 Household Mfq.91 17 0 0 0 0 0 Transportation 4812 308 2445 0 21032 0 2244 Wholesale,Dist.996 105 1038 0 1052 41 1027 Comm.and Utilities 1007 70 1949 0 58069 0 1754 Trade &Pvt.Service 4640 403 9338 2910 118456 8070 8544 Finance &Real Est.1003 74 1944 0 4561 1895 GOVERNMENT Non-Prorit Org.2942 227 452 0 89115 444 452 Local &Reg.Govt.16078 972 16930 909 256107 28409 15112 State Agencies/Svcs 1298 101 2001 134 43611 492 2001 Fed.Agencies/Svcs 3181 228 12600 719 165887 2695 12240 **kTransfer Payments 11106 Subtotal 54195 3090 49336 4672 768871 40151 45908 RESIDENTIAL Population (No.persons)6768 Household Size 3.9 Total Households 1730 Usage Rate (M.Btu/household)188 Total Res.Demand (M.Btu)30476 56154 220154 26092 17183 Total 79812 60826 989025 66243 63091 &FLqLYxXy Exhibit 3 Page 1 of 3 HOUSEHOLD ENERGY USE SURVEY Village 1.How many people live in this house? 2.Check off the fuel(s)used for cooking: fuel oil electricity propane Blazo wood kerosene camp stove other,list how . 3.Check off the fuel(s)used for heating in this house: fuel electricity Blazo wood kerosene propane other,list how . 4.Check off the way your home heats water: on a cook stove/heater fuel oil hot water heater electric hot water heater propane hot water heater other,list how . 5.Does your home have electricity? Yes No,If no,describe how you light your home: Exhibit 3 Page 2 of 3 HOUSEHOLD ENERGY USE SURVEY (Cont'd) 6.Does your home have a wood burning stove? Yes No (If no,are you planning to install one Yes,No) 7.If you burn wood,estimate how many cords your home burned last winter: cords 8.Indicate an average monthly energy bill for: Electricity during the winter during the summer per month per month Fuel Oil during the winter during the summer per month per month Propane during the winter during the summer per month per month Blazo during the winter during the summer per month per monthnnUrInnon 9.Estimate the total amount of gasoline you purchase each month to run: boats (summer)S per month automobiles $per month sno -gos/3-wheels §per month chainsaws $per month 10. Exhibit 3 Page 3 of 3 HOUSEHOLD ENERGY USE SURVEY (Cont'd) Check off the appliances from the following list that: Already exist in OaoNyour home television freezer refrigerator radio/CB/stereo electric coffee pot electric cooking range/oven electric blankets car heaters other electric appliances list You Pattieameieaaatedeeteeeeeeeeeeare planning to purchase television freezer refrigerator radio/CB/stereo electric coffee pot electric cooking range/oven electric blankets car heaters other electric appliances list Exhibit 4 VILLAGE VILLAGE-LEVEL ENERGY USAGE (Non-residential) Enter the total annual consumption of fuels by the following consumers: ANNUAL CONSUMPTION Fuel Oil Electricity Propane Consumer (Gals)(KwH)(lbs)Other (list) School Water,Sewer, Laundry Fac. Public Buildings City Buildings Health Ctr. Post Office Churches Recreation Ctr. Commerical Stores Electric Plant Airport Fac. Other (list) Exhibit 5 Page 1 of 3 ANNUAL ELECTRICAL ENERGY AND PEAK DEMAND PROJECTIONSL/ MOST LIKELY SCENARIO 1981 1987 1992 2002 Peak Energy Peak Energy Peak Energy Peak Energy (kW)(MWh)(kW)(MWh)(kW)(MWh)(kW)(MWh) Akiachak 95 325 115 400 140 495 185 655 Akiak 55 190 60 210 75 260 95 335 Nunapitchuk 75 260 80 280 95 335 125 435 Kasigluk 125 440 135 465 160 560 200 705 Atmautluak 65 225 65 235 80 275 95 335 Bethel 4,200 20,230 4,270 20,590 5,020 24,200 6,380 30,720 Eek 90 305 100 345 120 410 140 490 Kwethluk 85 300 100 355 125 435 160 570 Napakiak 110 380 130 450 150 520 190 660 Napaskiak 75 260 85 290 100 345 125 440 Oscarville 20 70 20 80 30 95 35 120 Tuluksak 65 230 75 265 90 315 115 405 Tuntutuliak 50 165 55 190 65 235 90 315 Total Area 5,110 23,380 5,290 24,155 6,250 28,480 7,935 36,180 1/These projections should be increased by 8 percent to obtain total electric energy generation. Exhibit 5 Page 2 of 3 ANNUAL ELECTRICAL ENERGY AND PEAK DEMAND PROJECTIONSL/ Akiachak Akiak Nunapitchuk Kasigluk Atmautluak Bethel Eek Kwethluk Napakiak Napaskiak Oscarville Tuluksak Tuntutuliak Total Area LOW SCENARIO 1981 1987 1992 2002 Peak Energy Peak Energy Peak Energy Peak Energy (kW)(MWh)(kW)(MWh)(kW)(MWh)(kW)(MWh) 95 325 105 375 120 430 145 500 55 190 60 205 65 230 75 265 75 260 75 270 85 300 95 335 125 440 125 445 140 490 155 545 65 225 65 225 70 240 75 260 4,200 20,230 4,050 19,490 4,350 20,950 4,940 23,810 90 305 95 335 105 375 115 410 85 300 95 345 110 390 125 440 110 380 120 420 135 470 156 505 75 260 80 285 20 310 100 350 20 70 20 75 25 85 25 90 65 230 75 260 80 285 95 325 50 165 50 180 65 200 20 235 5,110 23,380 5,015 22,910 5,440 24,755 6,160 28,070 1/These projections should be increased by 8 percent to obtain total electric energy generation. Exhibit 5 Page 3 of 3 ANNUAL ELECTRICAL ENERGY AND PEAK DEMAND PROJECTIONSL/ Akiachak Akiak Nunapitchuk Kasigluk Atmautluak Bethel Bek Kwethluk Napakiak Napaskiak Oscarville Tuluksak Tuntutuliak Total Area HIGH SCENARIO 1981 1987 1992 2002 Peak Energy Peak Energy Peak Energy Peak Energy (kW)(MWh)(kW)(MWh)(kW)(MWh)(kW)(MWh) 95 325 125 435 155 540 235 825 55 190 65 230 85 290 120 415 75 260 90 310 110 380 150 520 125 440 145 510 180 630 235 820 65 225 75 255 90 310 110 390 4,200 20,230 5,070 24,410 6,190 29,820 7,880 37,960 90 305 110 375 135 470 165 570 85 300 115 395 140 495 210 740 110 380 135 465 165 580 240 835 75 260 90 320 110 390 150 525 20 70 25 85 30 110 40 145 65 230 85 295 105 360 140 490 50 165 60 205 75 260 105 365 5,110 23,380 6,190 28,290 7,570 34,635 9,780 44,600 1/These projections should be increased by 8 percent to obtain total electric energy generation. BETHEL ARFA POWER STUDY FORECAST MOST-LIKELY Projection 10/15/82 SECTOR COMMERCIAL Renew.Res.Harvest Mining &Exploration Construction Household Mfq. Transportation Wholesale,Dist. Comm.and Utilities Trade &Pvt.Service Finance &Real Est. GOVERNMENT Non-Protit Org. Local &Reg.Govt. State Agencies/Svcs Fed.Agencies/Svcs **keTransfer Payments Subtotal RESIDENTIAL Total Income ($000) 1256 462 5817 88 4844 1019 1034 4348 960 Population (No.persons) Household Size Total Households Usage Rate (M.Btu/household) Total Res.Demand (M.Btu) Total 1987 FORECAST,TOTAL BETHEL AREA,Alaska Total Emplymt(No.) End-Use ConsumptionTotal- Elect-Space Water Light & ricity Cooking Heating Heating Applian(Million Btu)-- 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 646 0 11099 0 646 0 0 0 0 0 2461 0 21172 0 2259 1063 0 1078 42 1052 1997 0 59503 0 1797 8747 2726 110948 7558 8003 1865 0 4371 0 1819 431 0 84622 421 431 16086 864 243348 26995 14359 2241 150 48844 551 2241 7687 438 101190 1644 7468 43224 4178 686175 37211 40075 39228 72798 283416 33536 22140 82452 76976 969591 70747 62215 640[abeg9IqLUXy BETHEL ARFA POWER STUDY FORECAST MOST-LIKELY Projection 10/15/82 1992 FORECAST,TOTAL BETHEL AREA,Alaska Elect<Space Water Light & SECTOR Income Empiyrt ticity Cooking Heating Heating Applian -laa ata aeataaetaheeteaetes ($000)=--(No,.)--(Million Btu)--- COMMERCIAL Renew.Res.Harvest 1379 110 0 0 0 0 0 Mining &Exploration 394 39 0 0 0 0 0 Construction 6470 §41 718 0 12343 0 718 Household Mfq.95 18 0 0 0 0 0 Transportation 5410 347 2748 0 23644 0 2522 Wholesale,Dist.1111 118 1165 0 1180 46 1152 Comm.and Utilities 1144 77 2210 0 65854 0 1989 Trade &Pvt.Service 4842 421 9742 3037 123586 8419 8913 Finance &Real Est.1064 79 2062 0 4840 0 2011 GOVERNMENT Non-Protit Org.2975 230 457 0 90204 451 457 Local &Reg.Govt.18607 1126 19593 |1052 296380 32881 17489 State Agencies/Svcs 1558 121 2402 161 52332 590 2402 Fed.Agencies/Svcs 1941 138 7687 438 101190 1644 7468 ***Transfer Payments 9995 Subtotal 56985 3365 48784 4688 771553 44031 45121 RESIDENTIAL Population (No.persons)8570 Household Size 3.5 Total Households 2446 Usage Rate (M.Btu/household)211 Total Res.Demand (M.Btu)48431 89120 348766 41407 27320 Total 97215 93808 1120319 85438 72441 6402abeg9FLGLUXy BETHEL AREA POWER STUDY FORECAST MOST-LIKELY Projection 10/15/82 2002 FORECAST,TOTAL BETHEL AREA,Alaska End-Use ConsumptionTotal-< Total Total Elect Space Water Light &SECTOR Income Emplymt ricity Cooking Heating Heating Applianalacetateheateaerteneteanetetetenete($000)(No.)(Million Btu)--------<------ COMMERCIAL Renew.Res.Harvest 1552 123 0 0 0 0 0 Mining &Exploration 372 37 0 0 0 0 0 Construction 7221 602 802 0 13778 0 802 Household Mfq.109 20 0 0 0 0 0 Transportation 6193 396 3146 0 27054 0 2888 Wholesale,Dist.1250 137 1308 0 1326 52 1293 Comm.and Utilities 1364 96 2643 0 78762 0 2379 Trade &Pvt.Service 5502 478 11065 3449 140372 9563 10125 Finance &Real Est.1269 95 2463 0 5780 0 2401 GOVERNMENT Non-Protrit Org.3956 308 608 0 119787 598 608 Local &Reg.Govt.21076 1274 22196 1192 335756 37249 19813 State Agencies/Svcs 1869 144 2884 193 62800 708 2884 Fed.Agencies/Svcs 2703 191 10711 611 141005 2291 10406 ***eTransfer Payments 13105 Subtotal 67541 3901 57826 5445 926420 50461 53599 RESIDENTIAL Population (No.persons)9931 Household Size 3.3 Total Households 3018 Usage Rate (M.Btu/household)232 Total Res.Demand (M.Btu)65625 121694 474577 56176 37026 Total 123451 127139 1400997 106637 90625 6$0€abeg9FLqLYyXxX] BETHEL AREA POWER STUDY FORECAST LOW Projection 10/15/82 SECTOR COMMERCIAL Renew.ReS.Harvest Mining &Exploration Construction Household Mfq. Transportation Wholesale,Dist. Comm.and Utilities Trade &Pvt.Service Finance &Real Est. GOVERNMENT Non-Profit Org. Local &Reg.Govt. State Agencies/Svcs Fed.Agencies/Svcs ***eTransfer Payments Subtotal RESIDENTIAL Population (No.persons) Household Size Total Households Total Total Income Emplymt ($000)(No.) 1204 96 462 46 5723 478 82 16 4581 294 978 102 904 65 4119 358 882 67 2283 178 14880 902 1104 88 1941 138 8329 47472 2828 7608 2027 195UsageRate(M.Btu/household) Total Res.Demand (M.Btu) Total 1987 FORECAST,TOTAL BETHEL AREA,Alaska End-Use ConsumptionTotal-- Elect- ricity Cooking 0 0 0 0 636 0 0 0 2327 0 1022 0 1745 0 8285 2582 1711 0 351 0 15670 841 1702 114 7687 438 41136 3975 37016 68721 78152 72696 Space Heating(Million 637464 267338 904802 Water Light & Heating ApplianBtu)-- 0 0 0 0 0 636 0 0 0 2136 40 1011 0 1571 7160 7580 0 1669 345 351 26293 13988 418 1702 1644 7468 35900 38112 31638 20900 67538 59012 6$0yabed9FLQLUXy BETHEL AREA POWER STUDY FORECAST LOW Projection 10/15/82 SECTOR COMMERCIAL Renew.Res.Harvest Mining &Exploration Construction Household Mfq. Transportation Wholesale,Dist. Comm.and Utilities Trade &Pvt.Service Finance &Real Est. GOVERNMENT Non-Profit Orq. Local &Reg.Govt. State Agencies/Svcs Fed.Agencies/Svcs ***Transfer Payments Subtotal RESIDENTIAL Total Income ($000) Population (No.persons) Household Size Total Households Usage Rate (M.Btu/household)Total Res.Demand (M.Btu) Total 1992 FORECAST,TOTAL BETHEL AREA,Alaska Total Emplymt(No.) End-Use ConsumptionTotal-< Elect- ricity Cooking 0 0 0 0 653 0 0 0 2449 0 1120 0 2063 0 8947 2789 1809 0 388 0 17104 918 1903 127 5793 331 42229 4165 42251 78308 84480 82473 Btu)@--==enn n ee Space Water Heating Heating(Million 0 0 0 0 11215 0 0 0 21069 0 1135 44 61481 0 113517 7733 4239 0 75989 379 258728 28702 41430 467 76308 1240 665111 38565 304624 36075 969735 74640 Light & Applian 23855 62859 640gabed9FLQLYUXA BETHEL AREA POWER STUDY FORECAST LOW Projection 10/15/82 SECTOR COMMERCIAL Renew.Res.Harvest Mining &Exploration Construction Household Mfq. Transportation Wholesale,Dist. Comm.and Utilities Trade &Pvt.Service Finance &Real Est. GOVERNMENT Non-Profit Org. Local &Reg.Govt. State Agencies/SvycsFed.Agencies/Svcs ***ePTransfer Payments Subtotal RESIDENTIAL Population (No.persons) Household Size Total Households Total Total Income Emplymt ($000)(No.) 1496 119 234 23 7466 624 91 17 5477 351 1229 129 1190 80 4794 418 1011 74 2794 215 16844 1020 1234 97 1462 103 8329 53651 3270 9105 2549 214UsageRate(M.Btu/household)Total Res.Demand (M.Btu) Total 2002 FORECAST,TOTAL BETHEL AREA,Alaska End Use ConsumptionTotal-- Elect-Space Water Light & ricity Cooking Heating Heating Applian --(Million Btu)--<----------- 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 829 0 14244 0 829 0 0 0 0 2782 0 23926 0 2553 1282 0 1300 51 1267 2305 0 68690 0 2075 9641 3005 122321 8333 8821 1962 0 4603 0 1913 431 0 84691 421 431 17738 952 268302 29765 15834 1903 127 41430 467 1903 5793 331 76308 1240 5628 44666 4415 705815 40277 41254 51138 94444 368556 43752 28865 95804 98859 1074371 84029 70119 6309abeg9FLQLYXA BETHEL AREA POWER STUDY FORECAST HIGH Projection 10/15/82 SECTOR COMMERCIAL Renew.Res.Harvest Mining &Exploration Construction Household Mfq. Transportation Wholesale,Dist. Comm.and Utilities Trade &Pvt.Service Finance &Real Est. GOVERNMENT Non-Prorit Org. Local &Reg.Govt. State Agencies/Svcs Fed.Agencies/Svcs **kkTransfer Payments Subtotal RESIDENTIAL Population (No.persons) Household Size Total Households Total Total Income Emplymt ($000)(No.) 1398 112 555 55 6963 581 148 24 5525 354 1099 116 1229 82 5122 445 1147 87 3242 251 17053 1033 1491 117 3657 260 12772 61401 3517 7838 2207 202UsageRate(M.Btu/household) Total Res.Demand (M.Btu) Total 1987 FORECAST,TOTAL BETHEL AREA,Alaska Total End-Use Consumption Elect- ricity Cooking 0 0 0 0 773 0 0 0 2806 0 1150 0 2385 0 10300 3211 2227 0 497 0 17957 964 2301 154 14488 826 54884 5155 41656 77638 96540 82793 Space Water Light &Heating Heating Applian(Million Btu)---- 0 0 0 0 0 0 13287 0 773 0 0 0 24134 0 2575 1169 46 1138 71086 0 2147 130687 8903 9424 5228 2172 98206 490 497 271630 30133 16029 50151 565 2301 190770 3099 14075 856348 43236 51131 300954 35592 23524 1157302 78828 74655 640{abed93tqtyx9 BETHEL AREA POWER STUDY FORECAST HIGH Projection 10/15/82 SECTOR COMMERCIAL Renew.Res.Harvest Mining &Exploration Construction Household Mfg. Transportation Wholesale,Dist. Comm.and Utilities Trade &Pvt.Service Finance &Real Est. GOVERNMENT _Non-Profit Org. Local &Reg.Govt. State Agencies/Svcs Fed.Agencies/Svcs ***Transfer Payments Subtotal RESIDENTIAL Population (No.persons) Household SizeTotalHouseholds Total Total Income Emplymt ($000)(No.) 1670 134 693 69 8345 696 205 37 6371 407 1304 143 1503 104 5936 516 1314 99 3410 263 20942 1267 1665 128 4135 295 13328 70821 4158 8752 2649 216UsageRate(M.Btu/household) Total Res.Demand (M.Btu) Total 1992 FORECAST,TOTAL BETHEL AREA,Alaska End-Use ConsumptionTotal- Elect-Space Water Light & ricity Cooking Heating Heating Applian(Million Btu)-anette 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 927 0 15919 0 927 0 0 0 0 0 3238 0 27844 0 2972 1363 0 1383 54 1348 2910 0 86731 0 2619 11942 3722 151492 10320 10926 2551 0 5983 0 2488 524 0 103285 516 524 22051 1184 333584 37008 19684 2564 172 55821 629 2564 16380 934 215653 3503 15912 64450 6012 997695 52030 59964 53797 99377 387673 45989 30367 118247 105389 1385368 98019 90331 6308abeg9FLqLyuxy BETHEL AREA POWER STUDY FORECAST HIGH Projection 10/15/82 2002 FORECAST,TOTAL BETHEL AREA,Alaska End-Use ConsumptionTotal Total Total Elect-Space Water Light &SECTOR Income Emplymt ricity Cooking Heating Heating ApplianSreeneeeneeee($000)(No.)(Million Btu)- COMMERCIAL Renew.Res.Harvest 1954 157 0 0 0 0 0 Mining &Exploration 1153 115 0 0 0 0 0 Construction 10796 901 1199 0 20600 0 1199 Household Mfq.236 43 0 0 0 0 0 Transportation 7368 -469 3743 0 32198 0 3435 Wholesale,Dist.1531 166 1597 0 1624 63 1580 Comm.and Utilities 1741 118 3369 0 100384 0 3032 Trade &Pvt.Service 6628 577 13332 4155 169121 11521 12198 Finance &Real Est.1482 110 2872 0 6740 0 2801 GOVERNMENT Non-Protit Org.3576 281 550 0 108304 541 550 Local &Reg.Govt.22006 1331 23174 1244 350553 38889 20686 State Agencies/Svcs 1817 140 2802 188 61054 688 2802 Fed.Agencies/Svcs 4771 338 18900 1078 248830 4042 18361 ***Transfer Payments 14993 Subtotal 80052 4746 71538 6665 1099408 55744 66644 RESIDENTIAL Population (No.persons)10405 Household Size 2.9 Total Households 3538 Usage Rate (M.Btu/household)246 Total Res.Demand (M.Btu)80660 153576 587654 68884 45602 Total 152198 160241 1687062 124628 112246 6$06abeg9FIqlLyuxg Exhibit 7 HISTORICAL POPULATION DATA Annual Annual Annual Growth Growth Growth 1950 Rate 1940 Rate 1970 Rate 1980 (%)(3)(%) Akiachak 179 2.5 229 3.1 312 3.5 438 Akiak 168 1.0 187 -0.9 171 1.5 198 Akolmiut 236 9.0 561 -0.6 526 2.09 641 Atmautluak N.A.N.A.N.A.N.A.N.A.N.A.219 Bethel 651 6.8 1,258 6.7 2,416 3.8 3,527 Eek 141 3.5 200 -0.7 186 2.0 228 Kwethluk 212 4.4 325 2.3 408 1.1 454 Napakiak 139 3.2 190 3.1 259 0.1 262 Napaskiak 121 2.4 154 2.0 188 2.6 244 Oscarville 27 6.6 51 -2.2 41 3.2 56 Tuluksak 116 1.7 137 3.6 195 1.9 236 Tuntutuliak 68 7.8 144 0.9 158 3.2 216 Akiachak Akiak Atmaut luak Rethel Fek Kasigluk Kwethluk Napakiak Napaskiak Nunapitchuk Oscarville Tuluksak Tuntutuliak TOTAL AREA 1980 438 198 219 3,527 228 373 454 262 244 268 56 236 216 6,719 Annual Growth Rate (%) POPULATION PROJECTIONS Most Likely Scenario Exhibit 8 Page 1 of 3 Annual Annual Growth Growth 1987 Rate 1992 Rate 2002 (%)(%) 508 2.0 561 1.2 635 210 1.0 222 1.0 244 239 1.25 254 1.0 280 4,220 2.5 4,792 1.7 5,686 249 1.25 264 1.0 294 414 1.5 448 1.5 518 481 1.0 508 1.0 558 286 1.5 309 1.5 359 251 0.5 259 0.5 271 292 1.5 316 1.5 367 65 1.5 69 1.0 76 257 1.25 276 0.65 295 257 2.5 292 1.8 348 7,729 2.9 8,570 1.5 9,931 Akiachak Akiak Atmaut luak Rethel Bek Kasigluk Kwethluk Napakiak Napaskiak Nunapitchuk Oscarville Tuluksak Tuntutuliak TOTAL AREA Annual Growth Rate (3%) POPULATION PROJECTIONS Low Scenario Exhibit 8 Page 2 of 3 Annual Annual Growth Growth 1987 Rate 1992 Rate 2002 (3)(%) 495 1.5 530 0.8 574 208 0.75 216 0.5 226 237 1.0 247 0.5 261 4,148 2.0 4,577 1.25 5,185 246 1.0 258 0.5 271 407 1.0 429 1.0 474 477 0.75 495 0.5 518 278 1.0 293 1.0 322 251 0.5 259 0.5 271 292 1.0 308 1.0 ©340 63 1.0 66 0.5 69 255 1.0 267 0.5 281 251 2.0 276 1.3 313 7,608 1.4 8,221 1.0 9,105 Akiachak Akiak Atmaut luak Rethel Eek Kasigluk Kwethluk Napakiak Napaskiak Nunapitchuk Oscarville Tuluksak Tuntutuliak TOTAL AREA 1980 438 198 219 3,527 228 373 454 262 244 268 56 236 216 #,719 Annual Growth Rate (3) POPULATION PROJECTIONS High Scenario Exhibit 8 Page 3 of 3 Annual Annual Growth Growth 1987 Rate 1992 Rate 2002 (3%)(3) 517 2.5 583 1.6 683 216 1.5 230 1.5 267 243 1.5 263 1.5 304 4,255 2.5 4,828 1.9 5,829 253 1.5 274 1.5 317 421 2.0 463 1.75 552 495 1.5 536 1.5 622 291 2.0 322 1.75 383 259 1.0 273 0.9 298 303 2.0 332 1.75 397 66 2.0 73 1.5 85 262 1.5 283 1.1 316 257 2.5 292 1.9 352 7,838 2.2 8,752 1.75 10,405 Akiachak Akiak Atinautl uak Bethel Eek Kasigluk Kwethluk Napakiak Napaskiak Nunapitchuk Oscarville Tuluksak Tuntutuliak TOTAL AREA HOUSEHOLD SIZE Historical Data Projections!' Exhibit 9 High /Most Likely /Low 1970 5.8 6.6 1980 1987 1992 2002 5.0 4.7/4.7/4.9 4.5/4.5/4.7 3.5/4.0/4.5 5.5 5.0/5.1/5.2 4.6/4.7/5.0 3.5/4.0/4.5 4.7 4.5/4.4/4.7 4.2/4.4/4.7 3.5/4.4/4.5 3.3 3.0/3.1/3.2 2.8/3.0/3.2 2.6/2.9/3.1 4.1 3.8/3.9/3.9 3.5/3.8/3.8 3.5/3.8/3.8 5.0 4.6/4-7/4.9 4.3/4.5/4.7 3.5/4.0/4.5 5.2 4.6/4-.9/4.9 4.3/4.5/4.7 3.5/4.0/4.5 4.4 4.3/4.1/4.1 4.0/4.1/4.1 3.5/4.0/4.5 5.0 4.6/4.7/4.7 4.3/4.5/4.7 3.5/4.0/4.5 5.0 4.6/4.7/4.9 4.3/4.5/467 3.5/4.0/4.5 4.7 4.3/4.4/4.4 4.0/4.3/4.3 3.5/4.0/4.5 5.6 5.0/5.3/5.3 4.8/5.2/5.2 4.0/4.5/5.0 5.1 4.6/4.8/4.8 4.3/4.5/4.8 3.5/4.0/4.5 3.9 3.6/3.7/3.8 3.3/3.5/367 2.9/3.3/3.6 1/These projections of household size are related to the High/Most Likely/Low scenarios of energy demand projections. 1981 Household Consumption (Million Btu) Less than 150 150 to 180 More than 180 HOUSEHOLD FNERGY CONSUMPTION Villages Akiachak,Akiak,Eek,Kwethluk, Napakiak,Napaskiak,Oscarville, Tuluksak Tuntutuliak Atmautluak,Bethel,Kasigluk, Nunapitchuk Exhibit 10 Average Annual Growth Rate (%per Year) High /Most Likely /Low Scenarios 1982-1987 1987-1992 1992-2002 2.75/2.5/2.0 2.0/1.75/1.5 1.25/1.0/0.75 1.75/1.5/1.25 1.5/1.0/0.75 1.75/1.0/0.75 1.5/1.0/0.75 1.25/1.0/0.5 1.25/1.0/0.50