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HomeMy WebLinkAboutEnergy Projects 1984 Appendix G-3 AtmautluakBethel Area Power Plan Feasibility Assessment APPENDIX G-3 ATMAUTLUAK COMMUNITY REPORT DRAFT Prepared for the Alaska Power Authority by Harza Engineering Company and Darbyshire &Associates Draft April 1984 TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction Background Population Housing Current Economic Activity Subsistence Cash Economy Future Economic Activity Current Energy Consumption Total Energy Electric Generation Future Energy Demand Formulation of the Supply Plans Economic Evaluation Base Case Supply Plan Optimized Base Case Supply Plan Thermal Supply Plans Hydropower Supply Plans Fuel Cell Supply Plans Sensitivity Analysis Regional Summary Environmental Evaluation Page ITI-1 IIliI-1l III-3 ITI-3 II1I-4 III-4 III-5 III-7 LII-8 III-9 III-10 III-10 III-11l III-14 IIlI-15 TII-16 III-16 III-17 III-17 III-17 IITI-19 III-22 Table No. III-1 IlI-2 III- -3 TIrt-4 III-5 IITI-6 III-7 III-8 III-9 III-10 LIST OF TABLES Atmautluak Household Size Atmautluak Employment and Income Atmautluak Projected Annual Earnings Atmautluak 1981 Fuel Prices and Consumption Existing Generating Facilities Atmautluak Energy Demand Forecast Most Likely Scenario,Present Worth and Benefit-Cost Ratio of the Supply Plans Most Likely Scenario,Sensitivity Analysis Using 0%Real Fuel Escalation Sensitivity Analysis,Present Worth of Supply Plans Ranking of Energy Supply Plans -ii- III-15 III-18 IITI-20 III-2] Exhibit No. LIST OF EXHIBITS Title Community Location Map Atmautluak Population 1981 Economic and Energy Profile,Atmautluak Economic and Energy Projections,Atmautluak 1981 Primary Energy Consumption,Atmautluak 1981 Energy Balance,Atmautluak Electrical Distribution System -iii- ATMAUTLUAK COMMUNITY REPORT Introduction The Bethel Area Power Plan Feasibility Assessment has been performed by Harza Engineering Company under contract to the Alaska Power Authority.The assessment was done to determine the best alternative(s)to meet the future electric generation and space heating needs of the Bethel region.The community of Atmautluak is within the study area,and is the subject of this Appendix.Detailed information on the overall regional assess- ment is contained in the Regional Report. The community report for Atmautluak is intended to be an informational and working document for the residents of the community.Much data has been collected on the community's background,population,housing,and its current economic and energy profiles.Existing electrical generation and transmis- sion facilities,as well as residential and commercial space heating needs,are documented in this report.Projections of future energy needs,based on future population,housing,and economic conditions,have been made.These projections have been used to develop alternative plans for meeting the electri- cal energy and space-heating needs of the region through year 2002,and those of Atmautluak in particular.These alternative plans have been analyzed from both an economic and environmental standpoint. This community report for Atmautluak is submitted as a draft for review and comment by the residents.The Alaska Power Authority welcomes your comments and questions. Background Atmautluak is situated in the Yukon-Kuskokwim Coastal Low- land,approximately 14 miles west-northwest of Bethel (Exhibit 1).The village is elongated;development stretches about a mile and a half along the Pitmigtalik River. This village is located within the vast silt plain that characterizes the lower drainage area of the Kuskokwim River. This delta lowland area contains thousands of thaw lakes,ponds, and tundra hummocks.The rivers in this particular area are characterized as sluggishly meandering streams.The only major relief in the area are the Kilbuck Mountains,a low rolling range of hills running in a north-south direction approximately 80 miles to the east. III-1 The village site is located well within the vast wet tundra plains region.People accordingly often refer to these communi- ties as the "tundra villages".Standing water is almost always present during the summer,due to the lack of topographic re- lief,making overland travel extremely difficult.Vegetation is limited to grasses and sedges rooted in mosses and lichens with a few dwarf shrubs existing on slightly raised ridges.The only available firewood is gathered from the riverbank of the Kuskokwim River,25 miles away.Consequently,firewood usage is primarily limited to heating steam houses which provide a form of bathing. Access to Atmautluak is principally by year-round charter air service and limited summer lighterage service from Bethel. There is no road system in the area.Overland movement is limited primarily to the winter season.Both the Pitmigtalik River and the Kuskokwim River are used as a roadway for taxis and truck freight during the winter season after the ice has thickened.Fuel oil and other freight items are trucked over this ice highway on an "as-necessary"basis to meet late-wintershortages.Snow machines provide the most competent mode of travel in winter. Atmautluak has had a relatively short history compared to other villages in the region;the community was founded in the 1960's.Many residents moved to the community from Nunapitchuk #2 which was established as a temporary site after residents abandoned Nanvarnarluk in the 1920's.The village was incorpo- rated in 1976. Beside the municipal government,Atmautluak's Native popu- lation is represented by a Traditional Council which is recogni- zed by the federal government as the offical tribal governing body.The traditional Council is eligible to participate in some state and federal programs,and has received benefits under the Indian Self Determination Act,the State and Local Fiscal Assistance Act,the Housing and Community Development Act,the Comprehensive Employment Training Act (CETA),and the Indian Child Welfare Act. Another local organization,the village corporation,al- though not a government entity,exercises a variety of functions generally exercised by governments.The local village corpora- tion,Atmautluak,Ltd.,was created under the Alaska Native Claims Settlement Act to receive and manage lands conveyed to it under the act.The corporation received interim conveyance to about 83,000 acres of land.Additional lands will be transferr- ed to the corporation at a later date. III-2 In conjunction with this study,a public meeting was held in Nunapitchuk in April,1982.Residents of Atmautluak were invited to attend. Population The community of Atmautluak is mainly inhabited by Kuskwogmuit Eskimos.The 1980 U.S.Census reported 219 village residents (116 male,103 female).Atmautluak was not included in the 1970 Census,although the Public Health Service estimated the population to be 107 people in 1970.In 1980,the racial composition was about 94 percent Alaskan Native.The average age was about 20, Three scenarios of population projections are presented on Exhibit 2.These projections were developed in conjunction with the three scenarios of economic projections which are presented in the following pages.The projected annual growth rates are a combined product of historical trends,actual rate of natural increase,potential economic growth,and immigration or emigra- tion.The projections also reflect a general decline of state population growth rates predicted by the U.S.Department of Commerce.In year 2002,the Atmautluak population is expected to be between 261 and 304. Housing According to the 1980 U.S.Census,there were 47 houses in the village.Of the 47,16 were rental units.HUD reports that it built 24 additional homes in the village in 1981.No homes have piped water.Residents utilize a central watering point. The average floor space of the most recently built homes (HUD)are approximately 1200 square feet,while the older structures contain roughly half of this area.Whereas the older homes are less well insulated,they are often better built and better sited away from wind exposure and snow drifting than the newer homes. The future housing stock will play an important role in determining future residential energy demands.The average number of persons per housing unit was about 4.7 in 1980.How- ever,because of the reductions of subsidy programs,the house- hold size is not expected to decrease rapidly.As shown in Table III-1,the average household size is expected to vary between 4.0 and 4.7 by 2002. III-3 Table III-1 ATMAUTLUAK HOUSEHOLD SIZE Energy Demand Projections Year Low Most-Likely High 1980 (U.S.Census)N/A 4.7 N/A 1987 4.7 4.4 4.5 1992 4.7 4.4 4.2 2002 4.5 4.4 3.5 Current Economic Activity This section describes the current village economy,both in its subsistence and cash forms.This assessment will serve as a basis for the economic projections. Subsistence Residents of Atmautluak depend on the environment in large part for subsistence.Subsistence can be defined as obtaining food,fiber,and shelter from the surrounding environment. Subsistence activities are pursued by a majority of the communi- ty's residents.A recent survey done in the Bethel region esti- mates that approximately one-third of the residents obtained one-half or more of their foodstuffs by engaging in such subsis- tence activities as fishing,berrypicking,and collecting game- birds along the sloughs and on the swampy tundra.It is also estimated that remaining two-third collects about one-fourth of their needs. Residents rely on subsistence activities for a number of reasons:it is the traditional method of provision passed to the present generation by its forefathers;in time of high shipping and transportation costs,it offers savings over the purchase of costly foodstuffs;and it provides a fruitful form of recreation.Dog,king,and silver salmon,as well as ling cod,shellfish,whitefish,and blackfish,provide food for many residents of Atmautluak.Residents also hunt moose,bear, beaver,mink,rabbit,ptarmigan,duck,and geese. An estimate of the equivalent income obtained from subsis- tence activities can be derived by assigning that portion of the typical household budget that is replaced by these subsistence items.Using the figures developed for the Bethel region and assuming a typical household budget of about $10,000 then the III-4 total cash value of these activities can be estimated to about $150,000 annually. Cash Economy Cash employment in Atmautluak exists in forms which are similar to other outlying village economies in Alaska.Typical- ly most jobs exist with the city government,school,store, health clinic,and the post office.Occasionally a construction project,such as the planned upgrading of the elementary school, will provide temporary jobs for village residents. Exhibit 3 shows the 1981 economic and energy profile for Atmautluak.Exhibit 3 corresponds to the forecasting model output for Atmautluak as analyzed in this study.The forecast- ing model is described in Appendix A.In Exhibit 3,total annu- al income or earnings,in 1981 dollars,are first presented for each economic activity,followed by the corresponding number of average annual employment.The remaining columns present the end-use energy consumption for each activity.The column en- titled ""Electricity"corresponds to the total electricity demand,which is the sum of last column "Light and Electric Appliances"consumption and the electricity consumption used in "Cooking,Space Heating,and Water Heating".For convenience, all consumption data are in Million Btu.The electric energy demand can be translated into kilowatt-hours by dividing the consumption in Btu by 3,413 (Btu per kilowatt hour).The lower section of Exhibit 3 presents the residential sector with popu- lation,average household size,total number of households, average energy consumption per household,and end-use demand. The last line summarizes the total demand from the commercial, government and residential sectors.Table III-2 below sum- marizes the 1981 average monthly employment and annual income by sector that are typically found in a village the size of Atmaut- luak.It should be cautioned that the numbers listed for each sector do not necessarily indicate full-time employment.More than one of these positions may be held by one person simultane- ously or by the same person at different times of the year. III-5 Table III-2 ATMAUTLUAK EMPLOYMENT AND INCOME Average Monthly Annual Economic Activity Employment Income (1981 $) Renewable Resource Harvesting 4 $45,000 Mining and Exploration 0 -0- Construction 20 242,000 Household Manufacturing 1 4,000 Transportation 1 9,000 Wholesale,Dist.1 4,000 Comm.and Utilities 1 14,000 Trade and Private Services 7 77,000 Finance and Real Estate 2 27,000 Non-Profit Organization 1 16,000 Local and Regional Government 29 476,000 State Agencies/Services 1 8,000 Federal Agencies/Services 2 33,000 Transfer Payments N/A 453,000 TOTAL $1,408,000 As shown in Table III-2,the primary sources of income to the village are local and regional government,transfer pay- ments,construction,trade and private services,and renewable resource harvesting.These and other income sources are des- cribed below. Local and Regional Government.The village school system provides the largest number of cash-earning positions'to Atmautluak residents.The state-run Lower Kuskokwim School District provides a village high school.Positions associated with the systems are:principal teacher,certified teachers, substitute teachers,bilingual teachers,instructional aides, clerk/typists,community educational coordinators,librarians, and athletic directors.Support positions that exist in the school are cooks,cook's helper,school maintenance and school custodian. Positions with the village government take the following forms fee agents,bookkeepers,city administrators,city clerks,city maintenance,city custodian,city recreation director,village public safety officer,village patrolman. III-6 Transfer Payments.Non-employment forms of cash flow exist as transfer payments.Transfer payments are made directly to a household in two forms --cash and/or goods.Cash payments are made through social security,general welfare (SSI,Old Age, Blind,AFCD,VA,food stamps,etc.),home mortgage subsidies, rental subsidies,and home energy and fuel purchase subsidies. A major subsidy is the state's Power Cost Assistance Program. Construction.Construction projects both in Atmautluak and throughout the region provide employment opportunities that typically represent the largest private cash-earning potential locally.The upcoming upgrading of the elementary school will provide temporary jobs for village residents. Trade and Private Services.Retail trade activities pro- vide full-time managerial,clerical,and stock room positions. A village corporation owned and operated store exists,together with other privately owned village stores.Private services are provided as well as small variety and novelty shops and small engine dealers and service. Renewable Resource Harvesting.Positions under this cate- gory include trapping,firewood gathering,fishing,and serving as guides in fishing,hunting,and excursion trips.The most cash-rewarding activity in this industry is commercial fishing. Other Sources.The remaining income sources listed in Table III-2 make up only a minor part of the total village in- come.Federal agency services,finance and real estate,and transportation services represent the largest income sources of this group. Future Economic Activity Future energy demand will depend upon the changes in the economy and the purchasing ability of the households.To re- flect the potential changes over the next twenty years,three levels of expected change (most-likely,low and high)were de- veloped. The results of the economic projections for the years 1987, 1992,and 2002 are presented on Exhibit 4.Exhibit 4 is organized as described earlier for Exhibit 3.Table III-3 sum- marizes the expected range of future economic activity.Total annual earnings,in constant 1981 dollars,are shown for the three scenarios.The difference between the low and high pro- jections represents the degree of confidence in projecting the future economic course of Atmautluak. III-7 Table III-3 ATMAUTLUAK PROJECTED ANNUAL EARNINGS (Constant 1981 Dollars) Projections Year Low Most-Likely High 1981 (Surveyed)N/A $1,408,000 N/A 1987 $1,226,000 1,299,000 $1,585,000 1992 1,282,000 1,470,000 1,827,000 2002 1,387,000 1,746,000 2,070,000 By the year 1992,under the "Most-Likely"set of circum- stances,the total village cash economy is expected to have completed its recovery from the 1980's slump.The remainder of the forecast to the year 2002 is characterized by a period of slow and continual expansion at a rate of about 2 percent. The "High"forecast assumptions differ from the "Most- Likely"primarily in the severity of the anticipated slump during the early 1980's.The effect of these less severe reduc- tions is measured in the forecast as a slowly expanding economy of about 2 percent annual growth rate until 2002. On the other side,"Low"forecast assumptions represent a much more sudden and severe slump in the total income earnings potential of the village during the remainder of the 1980's. Recovery is expected from this "slump"period,caused by govern- mental cutbacks,due primarily to a shift in the regional eco- nomic base toward decentralization.Still,this recovery is assumed to be slower and to begin at a much lower point than the most-likely and high projections.By 1992,the total cash earn- ed in the economy is expected to be only 91 percent of the amount earned 10 years earlier.By the year 2002,the total cash earning potential of the village economy is expected to have recovered to the 1981 level. Current Energy Consumption An energy use inventory was conducted in order to gain an understanding of the total village energy consumption,and the relative importance of electricity.Exhibit 5 presents a de- tailed listing of energy consumption by end uses and by fuel type. IITI-8 Total Energy Space and water heating was the major energy end use,with a total consumption of about 11,500 million Btu.A Btu (British Thermal Unit)is a measure of the amount of heat energy required to raise the temperature of one pound of water by one degree Fahrenheit.Fuel oil provided about 90 percent of the total heating needs,followed by wood (9 percent),propane (1 per- cent).Residential cooking consumed about 2,500 million Btu, provided by fuel oil (70 percent)and propane/blazo (30 per- cent).Lights and electric appliances consumed an equivalent of about 700 million Btu.One kilowatt-hour of electricity is equal to 3,413 Btu, Table III-4 summarizes the total consumption by fuel types. It also shows the average unit price of each fuel.The estimated total cost to Atmautluak for their 1981 energy demand was about $225,000 million,of which 19 percent was spent on diesel fuel for generating electricity. Table III-4 ATMAUTLUAK 1981 FUEL PRICES AND CONSUMPTION Unit Annual Price Consumption Fuel Oil $1.69/gal.85,000 gallons Diesel $1.69/gal.25,000 gallons Propane $95/100 lb bottle 60-100 lb bottles Blazo $3.40/gal.6,100 gallons wood $150/cord 75 cords Because of the large quantities of fuel needed to meet year-round energy demands,the only economical supply method is by water barge.A regional lighterage service is operated out of Bethel which uses the vast network of rivers and sloughs to deliver the fuels during the relatively short ice-free period of late summer and fall.Consequently,the vast majority of the annual fuel supply of the village must be delivered and stored on site during this portion of the year.Bulk fuel storage facilities are therefore a critical component of the present village energy system.The village of Atmautluak maintains approximately 15,000 gallons of storage capacity with a planned expansion of another 50,000 gallons during 1982.This new total volume is still not sufficient to store the total annual demand for fuel. IIiI-9 Exhibit 6 presents the energy balance for 1981.Due to conversion factors and electric distribution losses,the ""use- ful"energy was about 8,000 million Btu or 47 percent of the total consumption. Electric Generation Present Demand.In 1981,the total electric demand of the village was about 225 megawatt-hours (MWh).The 1981 peak de- mand was 65 kW. Existing Facilities.The village of Atmautluak does not have a centralized generating plant,but construction is cur- rently underway.Table III-5 lists the facilities being con- structed,along with existing facilities owned by LKSD and some households.The 230 kW generator on order is new.The two 100 kW units are old units that have been rebuilt.Age and condition of the other generators is unknown.The village dis- tribution system is shown on Exhibit 7. Table III-5 EXISTING GENERATING FACILITIES Operating Owner/Operator Status Capacity (kW) Atmautluak,Ltd.Ordered 230 Atmautluak,Ltd.Ordered 100 Atmautluak,Ltd.Ordered 100 LKSD Primary 125 LKSD Primary 125 LKSD Primary 55 (6)Shared households Primary 22.8 (2)"Primary 7.4 (5)"Standby 18 Total Capacity 783.2 kW Future Energy Demand Three projections of future energy demand (low,most-like- ly,high)were developed,based on current use,socio-economic projections,and assumptions regarding future end use demand. The most likely scenario is based on the most likely projections of economic activities,population,and household size described earlier.It also reflects a mid-range forecast of energy price IITI-10 trends.The low scenario reflects a more conservative growth derived from the low projections of economic activities,popula- tion,and household size,as well as a real energy annual growth rate of 2.5 percent.The high scenario assumes a continuation of the subsidized present situation,both at the energy level and at the economic level. The forecasts are based on estimated growth in each econo- mic activity described earlier,and in the residential sector. Pages 1 through 3 of Exhibit 4 present the end use projections for 1987,1992 and 2002 under the most likely scenario.Pages 4 through 6,and 7 through 9 present the projections for the low and high scenario,respectively.Table III-6 summarizes the results.Space heating demand was increased by about 15 percent to reflect the average annual heating needs of the region,since 1981,the base year,was warmer than average.The total elec- tric energy demand is expected to vary between 260 and 390 MWh in 2002,with a most likely energy demand of 335 MWh.The most likely 2002 peak demand is 95 kW. Table III-6 ATMAUTLUAK ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST Most Low Likely High Total Energy Demand (Btu x 106) 1981 Demand N/A 16,155 N/A 1987 Demand 16,776 17,888 18,888 1992 Demand 18,039 20,685 23,189 2002 Demand 20,085 25,972 31,634 Electric Energy Demand (MWh) 1981 Demand 225 225 225 1987 Demand 225 235 255 1992 Demand 240 275 310 2002 Demand 260 335 390 Formulation of the Supply Plans To meet the projected energy demand,a base case and four alternative supply plans were formulated to examine the relative energy costs and environmental and socioeconomic impacts.With- in each alternative,subplans are also formulated to meet the III-11l combinations of electrical and total energy demand.The plans are representative of mixes of supply modes for meeting end-use demands. The four alternatives to the base case include coal direct combustion for meeting all the heating demand.A general description of each supply plan is given in the following para- graphs. I.Base Case.The base case plan represents a continu- ation of the present practices of diesel generation for electricity.The base case plan also assumes the continued use of fuel oil for residential and non-residential heating needs.No new transmission interties are included in the Base Case. II.Base Case Alternatives.The base case alternatives will utilize the diesel units as described in the base case,with inclusion of wind electric generation,waste heat recovery,and coal direct combustion for heating de- mand.A regional and sub-regional transmission interties were also evaluated.The optimization of the base case alternatives is given in the next section. For consistency between all alternative supply plans,it was assumed that the conversion to coal direct combustion would be in 1988,the same year as the coal fired plant would be in operation.All existing residential and non- residential systems would be converted to burn coal for heating. III.Thermal Alternatives.Five sub-plans were formu- lated,including a 4-MW or a 10-MW coal-fired plant, located in Bethel.Transmission interties to the outlying villages were also considered for each of the five plans. The results of the economic feasibility to intertie Atmaut- luak is presented in the following section. Supply Plan IIIA would consist of a 4-MW base load plant supplemented by diesel generators to meet the peak demand. The heating demand in Bethel and the villages would be met by fuel oil until 1988 then coal direct combustion as de- scribed in the Base Case Alternatives. Supply Plan IIIB would consist of the same 4-MW base load plant with waste heat recovery that would supply about 25 percent of the heating demand in Bethel.The remaining heating demand would be met as in Plan IIIA. III-12 Supply Plan IIIC would consist of a 10-MW cycling plant that would generate the electric energy demand.The heat- ing demand would be met as in Plan IIIA. Supply Plan IIID would consist of the same 10-MW plant with waste heat recovery that would supply 62 percent of the heating demand in Bethel.The remaining heating demand would be met as in Plan IIIA. Supply Plan IIIE would also consist of a 10-MW plant with a supplemental boiler to supply about 80 percent of the total heating demand of Bethel.The remaining heating demand would be met as in Plan IIIA. IV.Hydroelectric Alternatives.Two sub-plans were formu- lated from the Chikuminuk Lake development,as described in Chapter IV.The 9.5-MW project (Plan IVA)was sized to meet the monthly electric energy requirements of the Bethel region through year 2002.The average annual energy pro- duction would be 60 GWh,or about 21 GWh more than the projected electric energy demand in 2002,under the most likely projections.That average surplus of energy would meet about 7%of the total heating requirements of Bethel, in year 2002,The second plan (Plan IVB)consists of a development that approaches the topographic limits of the site.The 24-MW project would produce an average annual energy of 120 GwWh.This development would meet the proj- ected electric energy demand and about 27%of the heating requirements of Bethel,in year 2002.In both plans,the remaining heating demand would be met by coal direct com- bustion,as in Plan IIIA. Both supply plans include a high voltage transmission line from Chikuminuk Lake to Bethel via Kwethluk and Akiachak. Additional transmission interties to the other village were also considered.The economic feasibility of interconnect- ing Atmautluak is presented in the following section. V.Fuel Cell Alternatives.Two fuel cell alternative plans were formulated.Both plans include a centralized 9-MW fuel cell electric generation plant,located in Be- thel.The difference between the alternatives is that one plant (Plan VB)is designed for waste heat recovery,which could provide an estimated 12%of the heating demand in Bethel.The remaining heating demand would be met by coal direct combustion.As with the other plans,transmission interties to Atmautluak were considered. The basic assumptions and cost estimates underlying each supply plan are given in the Regional Report. III-13 Economic Evaluation The economic parameters and assumptions used in the evalua- tion are based on the Power Authority guidelines (Economic Para- meters for the 1983 Fiscal Year).The economic anaysis is done for the period starting in 1982 and ending in 2039,the last year of the 50-year economic life of the hydro project which would come on line in 1990.All costs are in terms of 1982 dollars.Petroleum fuels and coal are escalated at a real rate of 2.5 and 2.0 percent respectively,over the next twenty years. After year 2002,real escalation rates and load growths are assumed to be zero.A discount rate of 3.5 percent is used to calculate the present worth of costs occurring in different years on an equivalent basis. The present worth calculations were done according to the Power Authority evaluation procedure.The costs are busbar costs and do not include cost allowances for distribution,ad- ministration,taxes,etc.The present worth of consumer costs would be signficantly higher than the present worth of busbar costs developed in this evaluation.However,since these addi- tional costs are the same for all alternatives,the relative ranking of the alternatives would not be affected. Using the timing of capacity additions and costs presented in the Regional Report,the present worth of costs for each supply plan was computed.Table III-7 summarizes the present worth of each supply plan for Atmautluak.The present worth computation was done separately for the heating demand and elec- tric demand.Electric demand includes the costs associated with generation facilities and transmission interties. III-14 Table III-7 MOST LIKELY SCENARIO PRESENT WORTH AND BENEFIT-COST RATIO OF THE SUPPLY PLANS Total Demand Benefit-Cost RatioPresentWorth(1982 $x103)With With Heating Electric Total Base Optimized Supply Plan Demand Demand Demand Case Base Case Base Case Plan I 8,400 2,861 11,261 1.00 - Optimized Base Case Plan II 6,013 2,861 8,874 1.27 1.00 Thermal Plans Plan IIIA 6,013 2,861 8,874 1,27 1.00 Plan IIIB 6,013 2,861 8,874 1,27 1.00 Plan IIIC 6,013 2,861 8,874 1,27 1.00 Plan IIID 6,013 2,861 8,874 1,27 1.00 Plan IIIE 6,013 2,861 8,874 1.27 1.00 Hydroelectric Plans Plan IVA 6,013 5,072 11,085 1,02 0.80 Plan IVB 6,013 5,072 11,085 1,02 0.80 Fuel Cell Plans Plan VA 6,013 2,861 8,874 1.27 1.00 Plan VB 6,013 2,861 8,874 1.27 1,00 The following paragraphs describe the results'for Atmautluak under each supply plan.A regional summary is pre- sented at the end of this section. Base Case Supply Plan The present worth of the Base Case using diesel plants for electric generation and fuel oil for heating was first computed III-15 to serve as a reference,As shown on Table III-7,the total present worth of the Base Case is $11,261,000,of which $2,861,000 is for electric energy demand. Optimized Base Case Supply Plan The Base Case Alternatives were optimized based on an eval- uation of coal direct combustion,wind generation,waste heat recovery,and transmission intertie.As described in the Re- gional Report,the analysis shows that conversion to coal direct combustion for heating would provide significant economic bene- fit.Under the Most Likely Scenario,assuming a complete con- version to coal direct combustion by 1988,the present worth of the heating costs would be reduced by $2,387,000 (in 1982 dollars)over the period 1988-2039,Wind generation was only found to be economically feasible in the villages of Eek and Tuntutuliak.Diesel waste heat recovery was not found to be economically attractive in Atmautluak when it is compared to coal heating or fuel oil heating.Transmission intertie to Bethel,or a sub-regional transmission intertie between Nunapitchuk,Kasigluk,and Atmautluak was not found to be eco- nomically feasible. As shown on Table III-7,the total present worth of the Optimized Base Case is $8,874,000.The benefit-cost ratio is 1.27 when compared to the Base Case.As it is not economicallyfeasibletointertieAtmautluaktoBethelora_sub-regional center,the present worth of the electric energy demand is identical to the Base Case,The present worth of the heating demand was reduced from $8,400,000 to $6,013,000. Thermal Supply Plans As for the Optimized Base Case,an economic evaluation was performed to decide whether or not Atmautluak could be intertied to Bethel,site of the coal-fired plant.To reflect the share of construction cost for the central coal-fired plant in the present worth computation of each village,an incremental unit cost of $1,500 per kilowatt was used.This unit incremental cost was multiplied by the projected village peak demand in year 2002 to estimate the construction cost associated with that village.As shown in Exhibit 38 of the Regional Report,the present worth of the electric energy demand,with an intertie to Bethel,is equal to $6,331,000 for Plans IIIA and IIIB,and $6,467,000 for Plans IIIC,D,and E.These present worth values are much greater than the Base Case present worth.Also,the present worth of the Nunapitchuk-Kasigluk-Atmautluak sub- regional intertie to Bethel is greater than the present worth of the Base Case.As a result,it is not economically feasible to intertie Atmautluak to a coal-fired plant in Bethel.The pre- III-16 sent worth is then equal to the present worth of the OptimizedBaseCase. Hydropower Supply Plans An economic evaluation of the intertie to Atmautluak was done,using an incremental hydroelectric construction cost of $3,000 per kilowatt.As shown in Exhibit 38 of the Regional Report,the present worth of the electric energy demand,with an intertie to Bethel,is equal to $5,072,000 for both hydropower plans.Although this present worth value is greater than the present worth of the Base Case for Atmautluak alone,the present worth of the Nunapitchuk-Kasigluk-Atmautluak sub-regional intertie to Bethel is smaller than the present worth of the Base Case for these three communities.As a result,it would be economically feasible to intertie Atmautluak if Nunapitchuk and Kasigluk are also intertied. Fuel Cell Supply Plans An incremental construction cost of $1,000 per kilowatt was used for the economic evaluation of village interties.As shown in Exhibit 38 of the Regional Report,the present worth of the electric energy demand,with an intertie to Bethel,is equal to $5,788,000 for both Fuel Cell Plans.This present worth value is much greater than the Base Case present worth.Also,the present worth of the Nunapitchuk-Kasigluk-Atmautluak sub- regional intertie to Bethel is greater than the present worth of the Base Case.As a result,it is not economically feasible to intertie Atmautluak to a fuel cell power plant in Bethel.The present worth is then equal to the present worth of the Opti- mized Base Case. Sensitivity Analysis The timing and rate of conversion from fuel oil to coal or electric heat to meet the heating demand would directly affect the value of all supply plans,except the Base Case.For the purpose of the economic analysis,we assumed a 100 percent con- version in 1988 to coal direct combustion for space heating. But,actually,the conversion would be more progressive.Asa result,the present worth of all alternative supply plans to the Base Case would increase,thereby reducing the difference with the Base Case. A sensitivity analysis was first performed to analyze the impacts of fuel escalation rates.The same supply plans were reevaluated using 0%real fuel escalation for fuel oil and coal. The results are summarized in Table III-8. III -17 Table III- -8 MOST LIKELY SCENARIO SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS USING 0%REAL FUEL ESCALATION Total Demand Benefit-Cost RatioPresentWorth(1982 $x103)With With Heating Electric Total Base OptimizedSupplyPlanDemandDemandDemandCaseBaseCase Base Case Plan I 5,804 2,257 8,061 1,00 - Optimized Base Case Plan II 4,670 2,257 6,927 1,16 1,00 Thermal Plans Plan IIIA 4,670 2,257 6,927 1.16 1.00 Plan IIIB 4,670 2,257 6,927 1.16 1.00 Plan IIIC 4,670 2,257 6,927 1.16 1.00 Plan IIID 4,670 2,257 6,927 1.16 1,00 Plan ITIE 4,670 2,257 6,927 1.16 1,00 Hydroelectric Plans Plan IVA 4,670 4,991 9,661 0.83 0.72 Plan IVB 4,670 4,991 9,661 0.83 0.72 Fuel Cell Plans Plan VA 4,670 2,257 6,927 1.16 1.00 Plan VB 4,670 2,257 6,927 1,16 1.00 Table III-8 shows that the benefit-cost ratio of the Optimized Base Case has decreased from 1.27 to 1.16,if there is no real escalation in fuel cost.The reduction in heating cost, assuming a complete conversion to coal direct combustion by 1988,has decreased from $2,387,000 to $1,134,000. Another sensitivity analysis was performed to analyze the impacts of the low and high projections of energy demand.Simi- III-18 lar supply plans using a 4-MW and 10-MW coal-fired plant,a 9-MW hydroelectric plant,and a 9-MW fuel cell plant were analyzed. The analysis was done using a 2.5%real escalation for fuel oil, and 2.0%for coal until year 2002.The results are presented in Table III-9. Under the Low Scenario,the conversion to coal-direct com- bustion for heating demand would still provide some savings, assuming a 100%percent conversion in 1988.Under the High Scenario,it would still not be economically feasible to inter- tie Atmautluak to a coal-fired or fuel cell plant in Bethel. Regional Summary The Regional analysis for Bethel and the twelve surrounding villages shows that conversion to coal direct combustion for heating would provide significant economic benefit.Under the Most Likely Scenario,assuming a complete conversion to coal direct combustion by 1988,the present worth of the heating costs would be reduced by about 30%or $169 million (in 1982 dollars)over the period 1988-2039.Wind generation was only found to be economically feasible in the villages of Eek and Tuntutuliak.Diesel waste heat recovery was not found to be economically attractive in the villages when it is compared to coal heating.Transmission interties to the outlying villages are only economically attractive under the Hydroelectric Supply Plans where the cost of electric generation (fuel and operation and maintenance costs)are negligible. Table III-10 shows the ranking of the energy supply plans under the Low,Most Likely,and High Scenarios.The first part of the table shows the ranking under the total demand,including both the heating and electric demand.Under the Low Scenario, only the Fuel Cell Supply Plan with waste heat recovery (Plan VB)is more attractive than the Optimized Base Case.Under the Most Likely and High Scenarios,the Hydroelectric Supply Plans are the most attractive.Assuming no real fuel escalation over the period 1982-2039,the Optimized Base Case is the best plan. The second part of the table shows the ranking under the electric demand.Under the Most Likely Scenario,with real fuel escalation during the period 1982-2001,the Hydroelectric Supply Plans are the only plans which have a present worth lower than the Optimized Base Case.Under the Most Likely Scenario with no real fuel escalation,the Base Case Supply Plan has the lowest present worth. IITI-19 O@-IIIPRESENT WORTH OF SUPPLY PLANS Low Scenario Table III-9 SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS (1982 $x103) Most Likely Scenario High ScenarioHeatingElectricTotalHeatingElectricTotalHeatingElectric TotalSupplyPlanDemandDemandDemandDemandDemandDemandDemandDemandDemand Base Case Plan I 6,901 2,391 9,292 8,400 2,861 11,261 9,765 3,265 13,030 Optimized Base Case Plan II 5,092 2,391 7,483 6,013 2,861 8,874 6,855 3,265 10,120 Thermal Plans Plan IIIA 5,092 2,391 7,483 6,013 2,861 8,874 6,855 3,265 10,120 Plan IIIB 5,092 2,391 7,483 6,013 2,861 8,874 6,855 3,265 10,120 Plan IIIC 5,092 2,391 7,483 6,013 2,861 8,874 6,855 3,265 10,120 Plan IIID 5,092 2,391 7,483 6,013 2,861 8,874 6,855 3,265 10,120 Plan IIIE 5,092 2,391 7,483 6,013 2,861 8,874 6,855 3,265 10,120 Hydroelectric Plans Plan IVA 5,092 4,960 10,052 6,013 5,072 11,085 6,855 5,177 12,032 Plan IVB 5,092 4,960 10,052 6,013 5,072 11,085 6,855 5,177 12,032 Fuel Cell Plans Plan VA 5,092 2,391 7,483 6,013 2,861 8,874 6,855 3,265 10,120 Plan VB 5,092 2,391 7,483 6,013 2,861 8,874 6,855 3,265 10,120 T@-IIITable III-10 RANKING OF ENERGY SUPPLY PLANS Total Demand 'Electric Demand With Fuel Escalation*Without F.E.With Fuel Escalation*Without F.E. Low Most Likely High Most Likely Low Most Likely High Most LikelySupplyPlansScenarioScenarioScenarioScenarioScenarioScenarioScenarioScenario Base Case Plan I 11 ll 1l 10 a 3 4 1 Optimized Base Case Plan II 3 5 6 1 2 2 3 2 Thermal Plans Plan IIIA 7 7 7 6 5 5 5 4 Plan IIIB 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 4 Plan IIIC 9 9 9 9 6 6 6 6 Plan IIID 8 7 8 8 6 6 6 6 Plan IIIE 10 10 10 11 6 6 6 6 Hydroelectric Plans Plan IVA 2 2 2 3 4 1 1 5 Plan IVB 3 1 1 7 4 a 1 5 Fuel Cell Plans : Plan VA 6 6 5 5 3 4 2 3 Plan VB 1 3 3 2 3 4 2 3 Assumes 2.5%real escalation rate for fuel oil and 2.0%for coal during the period 1982-2001.No escalation rates are assumed after 2001. Environmental Evaluation A detailed description of the environmental impact,cost, or risk that may occur with each of the technologies associated with the selected energy supply plans is given in the Regional Report, Environmentally,the Base Case is probably the most desi- reable of all the selected supply plans.No transmission lines would be used.The small separate generating systems located throughout the region would not create any large impact.En- vironmental drawbacks to the Base Case are the potentials for spill and fire hazard involved in fuel handling and storage. Due to the use of coal for space heating,the supply plan alternatives would be less desireable than the Base Case.Run- off and dust from storage piles,combustion emissions,and ash disposal will all impact the environment to a certain degree, and the public acceptance to coal for space heating is yet to be determined. Other key environmental constraints involve impacts of the hydroelectric project operation on aquatic and _terrestrialresources,and impacts of the transmission lines on birds and access to subsistence. ITI -22 4 «Nog x"awe+re4 G2 928ueanpanymeowes ©,Nunapitchkogee:es&s.ns a at SB paresrOeseesaAimeutluaaVeehegen"BETHEL @"Ngalae ° Napaskiak > "esa..J Tuntutuliak . ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY {MILES BETHEL AREA POWER PLAN 0 4 8 12 16 20 FEASIBILITY ASSESSMENTNFAIRBANKS\- 4 Li yi 1 yy | BETHEL \SCALE 1:1,000,000 COMMUNITY LOCATION MAP JUNEAU HARZA ENGINEERING COMPANYLSKEYMAP December 1982 Exhibit 2 ATMAUTLUAK POPULATION HISTORICAL DATA,PROJECTIONS,ANNUAL GROWTH RATES HISTORICAL DATA Annual GrowthYearPopulationRate,percent 1980 219 - PROJECTIONS a.Most |Low Likely High 1980 219 219 219 Annual Growth Rate:1.1%1.25%1.5% 1987 237 239 243 Annual Growth Rates:1%1.25%1.53% 1992 247 254 263 Annual Growth Rate:0.53%1%1.5% 2002 261 280 304 BETHEL AREA POWER STUDY FORECAST 1981 PROFILE.Atmauthluak,Alaska Elect-Space Water Light & SECTOR Income Emplymt ricity Cooking Heating Heating Applian Ammer renee mn ($000)---(No.)=--(Million Btu)--"<= COMMERCIAL Renew.Res.Harvest 45 4 0 0 0 0 0 Mining &Exploration 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Construction 242 20 0 0 0 0 0 Household Mfq.4 1 0 0 0 |0 0 Transportation 9 1 0 0 23 0 0 Wholesale,Dist.4 0 0 0 14 0 0 Comm.and Utilities 14 1 0 0 0 0 0 Trade &Pvt.Service 77 7 17 0 218 0 17 Finance &Real Est.27 2 0 0 44 0 0 GOVERNMENT Non-Profit Orq.16 1 9 0 96 15 9 Local &Reg.Govt.476 29 479 0 4629 779 479 State Agencies/Svcs 8 1 0 0 36 0 0 Fed.Agencies/Svcs 33 2 0 0 43 0 0 ***Transfer Payments 453 TOTAL 1408 69 505 0 5103 794 505 RESIDENTIAL Population (No.persons)219 Household Size 4.7 Total Households 47 Usage Rate (M.Btu/household)193 Total Res.Demand (M.Btu)260 2493 5102 466 161 TOTAL ENERGY (M.Btu)765 2493 10205 1260 666 €LIGIHX3 BETHEL AREA POWER STUDY FORECAST MOST-LIKELY Projection 10/15/82 1987 FORECAST,Atmauthluak,Alaska Elect-Space Water Light & SECTOR Income Emplymt ricity Cooking Heating Heating Applian meee nnn ene c een ($000)---(No.)(Million Btu)- COMMERCIAL Renew.Res.Harvest 45 4 0 0 0 0 0 Mining &Exploration 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Construction 244 20 0 0 0 0 0 Household Mfq.4 1 0 0 0 0 0 Transportation 9 1 0 0 23 0 0 Wholesale,Dist.4 0 0 0 14 0 0 Comm.and Utilities 14 1 0 0 0 0 0 Trade &Pvt.Service 72 6 16 0 204 0 16 Finance &Real Est.26 2 0 0 42 0 0 GOVERNMENT Non-Protit Org.15 1 9 0 91 14 9 Local &Reg.Govt.452 27 455 0 4398 740 455 State Agencies/Svcs 9 1 0 0 40 0 0 Fed.Agencies/Svcs 20 1 0 0 26 0 0 **eTransfer Payments 385 TOTAL 1299 65 480 0 4838 754 480 RESIDENTIAL Population (No.persons)239 Household Size 4.4 Total Households 54 Usage Rate (M.Btu/household)205 Total Res.Demand (M.Btu)321 3076 6296 575 199 TOTAL ENERGY (M.Btu)801 3076 11134 1329 679 6JO|obegvyLIGIHXS BETHEL AREA POWER STUDY FORECAST MOST-LIKELY Projection 10/15/82 1992 FORECAST,Atmauthluak,Alaska Space Cooking Heating ooooooooocoo0o°co3459 Elect- SECTOR Income Emplymt ricity cowererecoce=($000)--=(NO.)enone nnn COMMERCIAL Renew.Res.Harvest 50 4 0 Mining &Exploration 0 0 0 Construction 272 23 0 Household Mfq.4 1 0 Transportation 10 1 0 Wholesale,Dist.4 0 0 Comm.and Utilities 16 1 0 Trade &Pvt.Service 81 7 18 Finance &Real Est.29 2 0 GOVERNMENT Non-Profit Org.16 l 9 Local &Reg.Govt.550 33 555 State Agencies/Svcs 10 1 0 Fed.Agencies/Svcs 20 1 0 ***eTransfer Payments 408 TOTAL 1470 75 582 RESIDENTIAL Population (No.persons)254 Household Size 4.4 Total Households 58 Usage Rate (M.Btu/household)216 Total Res.Demand (M.Btu)361 TOTAL ENERGY (M.Btu)943 3459 (Million Btu)-= 7080 12919 Water Light & Heating Applian 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 18 0 0 15 9 901 555 0 0 0 0 916 582 647 224 1563 806 6430ZabegyLIGIHX3 BETHEL AREA POWER STUDY FORECAST MOST-LIKELY Projection 10/15/82 2002 FORECAST,Atmauthluak,Alaska Elect-Space Water Light & SECTOR Income Emplymt ricity Cooking Heating Heating Applianooee0heeoeeeomneoeaotmeeeae($000) --=-(No.)enme nn nn nnn (Million Btu)----- COMMERCIAL Renew.Res.Harvest 56 4 0 0 0 0 0 Mining &Exploration 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Construction 303 25 0 0 0 0 0 Household Mfq.5 1 0 0 0 0 0 Transportation 12 1 0 0 29 0 0 Wholesale,Dist.5 1 0 0 18 0 0 Comm.and Utilities 19 1 0 0 0 0 0 Trade &Pvt.Service 92 8 20 0 258 0 20 Finance &Real Est.34 3 0 0 56 0 0 GOVERNMENT Non-Protrit Org.22 2 12 0 129 20 12 Local &Reg.Govt.623 38 628 0 6069 1021 628 State Agencies/Svcs 12 1 0 0 52 0 0 Fed.Agencies/Svcs 28 2 0 0 37 0 0 ***Transfer Payments 535 TOTAL 1746 87 660 0 6648 1041 660 RESIDENTIAL Population (No.persons)280 Household Size 4 Total Households 70 Usage Rate (M.Btu/household)237 Total Res.Demand (M.Btu)481 4611 9438 862 299 TOTAL ENERGY (M.Btu)1141 4611 16086 1903 959 640©ebegyLISIHX3 BETHEL AREA POWER STUDY FORECAST LOW Projection 10/15/82 SECTOR COMMERCIAL Renew.Res.Harvest Mining &Exploration Construction Household Mfg. Transportation Wholesale,Dist. Comm.and Utilities Trade &Pvt.Service Finance &Real Est. GOVERNMENT Non-Profit Org. Local &Reg.Govt. State Agencies/Svcs Fed.Agencies/Svcs ***eTransfer Payments RESIDENTIAL 1987 FORECAST,Atmauthluak,Alaska Population (No.persons) Household Size Total Households Usage Rate (M.Btu/household) Total Res.Demand (M.Btu) Elect- Income Emplymt ricity($000)---(No.)enerennn 43 3 0 0 0 0 240 20 0 4 1 0 9 1 0 4 0 0 13 1 0 69 6 15 24 2 0 13 1 7 440 27 444 7 1 0 20 1 0 340 1226 64 466 237 4.7 50 203 295 761TOTALENERGY(M.Btu) Cooking Heating cooooooooooc*ocoe2827 2827 (Million Btu)= Space Water Light &Heating Applian 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 22 0 0 14 0 0 0 0 0 193 0 15 39 0 0 74 12 7 4284 721 444 31 0 0 26 0 0 4683 733 466 5785 529 183 10468 1262 649 6JOpbobegvyLISIHX3 BETHEL AREA POWER STUDY FORECAST LOW Projection 10/15/82 1992 FORECAST,Atmauthluak,Alaska Light & Applian &@oO&©aOaNODOO0CO0O00195 Elect-Space Water SECTOR Income Emplymt ricity Cooking Heating Heating sleatesatatetetetetenetetetetes ($000)---(No.)=-"(Million Btu)-enmnnnnn--n------- COMMERCIAL Renew.Res.Harvest 47 4 0 0 0 0 Mining &Exploration 0 0 0 0 0 0 Construction 247 21 0 0 0 0 Household Mfg.4 1 0 0 0 0 Transportation 9 1 0 0 23 0 Wholesale,Dist.4 0 0 0 15 0 Comm.and Utilities 15 1 0 0 0 0 Trade &Pvt.Service 74 6 16 0 209 0 Finance &Real Est.25 2 0 0 41 0 GOVERNMENT Non-Profit Org.14 1 8 0 82 13 Local &Reg.Govt.480 29 484 0 4676 787 State Agencies/Svcs 8 1 0 0 34 0 Fed.Agencies/Svcs 15 l 0 0 20 0 ***Pransfer Payments 340 TOTAL 1282 68 508 0 5100 800 RESIDENTIAL Population (No.persons)247 Household Size 4.7 Total Households 53 Usage Rate (M.Btu/household)207 Total Res.Demand (M.Btu)314 3014 6168 564 TOTAL ENERGY (M.Btu)822 3014 11268 1364 703 6JOGabegvLIGIHXS BETHEL AREA POWER STUDY FORECAST LOW Projection 10/15/82 SECTOR COMMERCIAL Renew.Res.Harvest Mining &Exploration Construction .Household Mfg. Transportation Wholesale,Dist. Comm.and Utilities Trade &Pvt.Service Finance &Real Est. GOVERNMENT Non-Profit Org. Local &Reg.Govt. State Agencies/Svcs Fed.Agencies/Svcs ***eTransfer Payments 2002 FORECAST,Atmauthluak,Alaska ricity Cooking Heating uioOoOoOoOnNwowmooo0ooococeRESIDENTIAL Population (No.persons) Household Size Total Households Income Emplymt ($000)--=(No.) 54 4 0 0 313 26 4 1 il 1 5 0 17 1 80 7 27 2 15 1 498 30 8 1 15 1 340 1387 75 261 58 218UsageRate(M.Btu/household) Total Res.Demand (M.Btu) TOTAL ENERGY (M.Btu) 365 894 Space Water Light &Heating Applian (Million Btu)------------------- 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 26 0 0 0 17 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 225 0 18 0 45 0 0 0 91 14 9 0 4849 816 502 0 34 0 0 0 20 0 0 0 5307 830 529 3501 7165 655 227 3501 12472 1485 756 6409abegtvLISIHX3 BETHEL AREA POWER STUDY FORECAST HIGH Projection 10/15/82 1987 FORECAST,Atmauthluak,Alaska Elect-Space Water Light & SECTOR Income Emplymt ricity Cooking Heating Heating Applianaheaheaeenenteaieaieaieteaieieieieaieierieiiariaas($000)--=(No.)ener nnn ---(Million Btu)------ COMMERCIAL Renew.Res.Harvest 50 4 0 0 0 0 0 Mining &Exploration 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Construction 292 24 0 0 0 0 0 Household Mfq.6 l 0 0 0 0 0 Transportation ll 1 0 0 26 0 0 Wholesale,Dist.4 0 0 0 16 0 0 Comm.and Utilities 17 1 0 0 0 0 0 Trade &Pvt.Service 85 7 19 0 240 0 19 Finance &Real Est.31 2 0 0 51 0 0 GOVERNMENT Non-Profit Org.18 1 10 0 105 17 10 Local &Reg.Govt.504 31 508 0 4910 826 508 State Agencies/Svcs 9 1 0 0 41 0 0 Fed.Agencies/Svcs 37 3 0 0 50 0 0 ***eTransfer Payments 521 TOTAL 1585 76 537 0 5439 843 537 RESIDENTIAL Population (No.persons)243 Household Size 4.5 Total Households 54 Usage Rate (M.Btu/household)208 Total Res.Demand (M.Btu)326 3121 6388 584 202 TOTAL ENERGY (M.Btu)863 3121 11827 1427 739 640£ebegpLISIHXS BETHEL AREA POWER STUDY FORECAST HIGH Projection 10/15/82 SECTOR COMMERCIAL Renew.Res.Harvest Mining &Exploration Construction Household Mfq. Transportation Wholesale,Dist. Comm.and Utilities Trade &Pvt.Service Finance &Real Est. GOVERNMENT Non-Profit Org. Local &Reg.Govt. State Agencies/Svcs Fed.Agencies/Svcs ***Transfer Payments RESIDENTIAL 1992 FORECAST,Atmauthluak,Alaska Population (No.persons) Household Size Total Households Usage Rate (M.Btu/household) Total Res.Demand (M.Btu) TOTAL ENERGY (M.Btu) Elect- Income Emplymt ricity -($000)---(No.)= 60 5 0 0 0 0 350 29 0 9 2 0 12 1 0 5 1 0 21 1 0 99 9 22 36 3 0 19 1 11 619 37 624 11 1 0 42 3 0 544 1827 93 657 263 4.2 63 222 402 1059 --(Million Btu)---oo°ceooooocoo0o°c”]e3849 3849 Space Water Light & Cooking Heating Heating Applian 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 30 0 0 18 0 0 0 0 0 279 0 22 58 0 0 111 18 11 6029 1015 624 46 0 0 56 0 0 6627 1033 657 7878 720 249 14505 1753 906 640§abeyvLIGIHX3 BETHEL AREA POWER STUDY FORECAST HIGH Projection 10/15/82 SECTOR COMMERCIAL Renew.Res.Harvest Mining &Exploration Construction Household Mfq. Transportation Wholesale,Dist. Comm.and Utilities Trade &Pvt.Service Finance &Real Est. GOVERNMENT Non-Protit Org. Local &Reg.Govt. State Agencies/Svcs Fed.Agencies/Svcs ***Transfer Payments RESIDENTIAL 2002 FORECAST,Atmauthluak,Alaska Space Water Light & Cooking Heating Heating Applian Population (No.persons) Household Size Total Households Usage Rate (M.Btu/household) Total Res.Demand (M.Btu) TOTAL ENERGY (M.Btu) -(Million Btu)=----Ls]omooo0oo°”ea)656 Elect- Income Emplymt ricity($000)--=(No.w)--- 70 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 453 38 0 0 10 2 0 0 14 1 0 0 6 l 0 0 24 2 0 0 110 10 25 0 40 3 0 0 20 2 11 0 651 39 656 0 11 1 0 0 49 3 0 0 612 2070 108 692 0 304 3.5 87 251 631 6048 1323 6048 12379 19379 1131 2216 392 1084 630&abegvyLIGIHX3 1981 PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION, Residential Sector Lights &Appliances Electricity Space Heating Electricity Fuel Oil Wood Propane/Blazo Water Heating Fuel Oil Wood Propane/Blazo Cooking Electricity Fuel Oil Propane/Blazo Total Commercial Sector Lights &Appliances Electricity Space &Water Heating and Cooking Fuel Oil Total Government Sector Lights &Appliances Electricity Space &Water Heating and Cooking Fuel Oil Total Equivalent Btu :BReeeExhibit 5 ATMAUTLUAK Million Btu killowatt-hour =3,413, gallon of fuel oil =136,000 Btu gallon of blazo =136,000 Btu 100-1b bottle of propane =2,500,000 Btu cord of wood =13,000,000 Btu 161 75 4,012 959 56 367 45 54 24 1,718 751 8,222 17 299 316 488 5,598 6,086 Btu A _EXHIBIT 6 _o©f ELECTRIC aqDIESEL&GENERATION (666)REJECTED ENERGY PROPANE /BLAZO_ COOKING wooD aDSPACEQj -FUEL OIL AND o WATER 3 USEFUL ENERGYN3}>=|HEATING ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY BETHEL AREA POWER PLAN FEASIBILITY ASSESSMENT 1981 ENERGY BALANCE (UNITS:MILLION Btu)ATMAUTLUAK HARZA ENGINEERING COMPANY December 1982 EXHIBIT 7 SHEET LEGEND: POWER WWEPROPOSEDRIGHT-OF-WAY TO ATMAUTLUAK JUNCTION Pea @ PoE POLE SND POLE MUMRER wee TRANSFORMER,4126 &>INDICATED Cia) >STREET LUeuTING -Gur @ Wire NEW GSNezaTor.BungSUBSTATION/GROUND ”<a>GRID LOCATION oN 12 Pet?+ OLD GawEzaee peroufshe2-*T]PP to Pica Thnk Fae al Pri@ SCHOOSORE/WELL PV NOV EWN Zs ADMINISTRATION G24 StHHOL GENERSER PLOY NeTE RUILONGS See ARE FOR RESIDENTIAL LOEUNLESSOTHERWICENOTED. fe L g an V9 aw<q NL ALASKA POWER AUTHORITY T y)-a BETHEL AREA POWER PLAN=a :ASE SLEC Ee oS Se Ss FEASIBILITY ASSESSMENTSCALE.seflls 125! ELECTRICAL DISTRIBUTION SYSTEMP.E.COMPANY ELECTRICAL ENGINEERS 7.0.Box 4-2543 Anchorage,Aisska HARZA ENGINEERING COMPANY Phone (907)276-3442 99508 Te..December 1982