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Home My WebLink AboutBethel Regional Wind Development WKSHP Part1-Regional Potential MartinaDabo 01-10-2008REGIONAL ECONOMIC WIND DEVELOPMENT IN RURAL ALASKA , PART I -IDENTIFYING REGIONAL POTENTIAL Bethel Regional Wind Development Workshop Bethel, January 10-11, 2008 Prepared by: Martina Dabo Wind Program Manager Alaska Energy Authority Alaska Energy Authority Public Corporation with Alaska Industrial Development and Export Authority Infrastructure Owner Coordinates Statewide Planning Develops Energy, Renewable Energy & Energy Efficiency Systems Conducts Training and Education Administers PCE Finances Projects AEA‟s Mission Assisting in the development of safe, reliable, and efficient energy systems throughout Alaska, which are sustainable and environmentally sound. Presentation Overview Alaska Energy Overview Wind Resource Alaska Wind Development Barriers Technical Wind Development Potential Next Steps Population 2006 Census: 653,313 Anchorage: 282,813 Juneau: 30,650 Fairbanks: 30,552 Rural Communities: 309,298 in 343 populated places Almost 50% of all Alaskan’s live in rural areas Source: DCCED, Map AEA. Statewide Energy Issues Source: UAA ISER 2003 •In 2001 4.8 trillion BTU of energy were produced in Alaska •Mostly from Oil and Gas •About 85% of the oil Alaska produces is exported •Alaska is importing about 30% of its exported refined petroleum back Breakdown of “Typical Village” Power Price 38 ct/kWh Gen. and Admin Renewal and Replacement Operation and Maintenance Fuel 14%19%21% 46% Source: AEA 2006 Wind Resource in Alaska Wind Projects in Alaska Kotzebue 1000 kW Kasigluk 300kW Toksook Bay 300kW Selawik 260kW St.Paul 775kW Total Installed Capacity 2775 kW Note: Not all projects are displayed Why Regional Development? Access to capital networks Access to networks that allow communities, regional entities, entrepreneurs and businesses to share ideas and explore contracting opportunities Access to a highly skilled workforce or to worker training programs Hub-Cities acting as O&M training and supply centers Job creation Consortium of entities that is responsible for implementing regional wind development able to offer management services. Shared Risk, i.e. wind turbine bulk purchases, strategic development and construction Long-term local commitment through shared resources(e.g. O&M, R&R.) Regional Programmatic Environmental Assessment shortens development time and reduces funding needs. Wind Development Barriers Wind Development Barriers Economy –rural economy characteristics Infrastructure –The majority of villages are not connected to a road system, they are only accessible via air and sea/river. Wind-Diesel Hybrid Technology -The specialized design of wind-diesel hybrid systems, is a niche application of wind generation technology that covers, compared to large, grid connected wind facilities, a relative small market sector worldwide. The major barrier is the limited specialized knowledge of the integration design and associated equipment interactions, such as switchgear, and energy storage. Wind Development Barriers -continued Equipment -Current turbine development in the wind industry is targeted to multi-megawatt wind generators. The application for these machines in rural Alaska is limited due to electrical load demand, construction equipment, and maintenance requirements. However, large size wind turbines are believed to be an appropriate choice for larger rural load centers. For smaller applications the equipment choice is limited. Two emerging trends for the Alaska market are visible. One market sector caters towards decommissioned, refurbished wind turbines (50kW –500 kW). The second market sector is the small to medium size new wind turbine sector (50kW- 100kW). Wind Development Barriers -continued Operation and Maintenance -The repair skill, spare part availability, remoteness of location, complexity of system, and responsiveness of technical support are factors that have to be taken into consideration in the decision making process. A dedicated, long-term O&M plan is a key factor for a sustainable project.Due to the difficulties in performing repairs during a long rural Alaska winter or delayed delivery, the downtime for a wind system can be several months. Technology Acceptance -A successful wind diesel system is a community development project that requires support from the local leadership, the residents, and the local utility. Extensive and early local outreach is a positive contributing factor for a sustainable project (i.e. School classes, participation in Met - Tower installation, town meeting presentations etc.). Wind Development Barriers -continued Climate – o Icing o Thawing Permafrost o Coastal Erosion o High Wind Speeds Source: AVEC, Toksook Bay, AK Wind Development Benefits Diesel Savings / Stable Cost of Energy 0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 2500000 3000000 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 Savings from Displaced Diesel 0% Savings from Displaced Diesel 1% Savings from Displaced Diesel 2% Wind Development Benefits continued.. Energy Independency Additional Revenues from Green Tag Sales 0 1000000 2000000 3000000 4000000 5000000 6000000 7000000 1 2 3 4 Wind Development Benefits continued.. Green House Gas Emission Reduction Carbon Tax ? @ $24/tCO2 ~ $200,000 annually in carbon tax savings Wind Development Benefits continued.. Potential annual savings of case study: Diesel Savings $1,427,559 Carbon Tax Savings $220,025 Green Tag Sales $359,700 Total ‘Savings’ $2,007,283 Technical Wind Development Potential Methodology Database -Community name, Census area, Coordinates, Population, Fuel Cost, Wind Class Ranking -Wind 70%, Population 25%, Fuel Cost 5% Filter – o Filter I -The ranking results were equally divided into four categories, each represent 25% of the total amount of ranked villages. o Filter II -Population numbers were divided into eight groups of community size. For each community the average and peak load was determined based on the FY2007 PCE data. An average load for each population category within the respective region was calculated. Methodology continued o Filter III -In the last phase a combination of low load and low ranking was applied to determine the elimination of villages unsuitable for wind development. Results Source: PCE FY07, Map AEA Regional Load Demand in Developable Communities Although the load demand can only indirectly support wind development projections, it servers as a reasonably good first estimate to identify potential installed capacity options. Additional capacity can be estimated if services generated by wind (i.e. heat, export) are desired. Wind Resource in Western Alaska Ranking Results Filtered Results Conclusion Regional Development is preferred in areas with a high density of developable project sites. Regional Development has the benefit of industry clusters (access to technology, knowledge, supply, local economy) Alaska has several regions suitable for a regional development approach. Identification of developable project sites serve as basis for further decision making processes (i.e. for turbine supplier, regional government, state government, support service supplier, training provider) This study presents the technical basis for discussions about regional wind development only. An actual implementation process has to be developed with the input of all stakeholders. Next Steps Study Phase II –Detailed evaluation of regional economic impacts. Study Phase III –Development of a „best practices guide‟ for the successful implementation of a regional economic wind development initiative. Timeframe: Approximate 6-8 months. “We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors, We borrow it from our children.” Native American Proverb REGIONAL ECONOMIC WIND DEVELOPMENT Prepared by: Martina Dabo Wind Program Manager Alaska Energy Authority mdabo@aidea.org (907)269-3027 & James Jensen Alaska Energy Authority jjensen@aidea.org & Joe Smith js77542@appstate.edu www.akenergyauthority.org