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SEIRP review meetings Jan 2012
[|::': :i ' i i i 7 i ; i {-i t :;\' }:':' :i i ::j : '4 hd ' ; }i :' :'4 i » 'i ! :F j j I : _a 'tae toe et Hs '. i ;' !3 : Fa -'re aw if F .A {woe {|' :; :1 i ':' t i .” .t 2 Ra j -i;By '}- }x ::rs ,' '\i : i . :' '.Ss i Snmeme - j-_--" - = :'i ae ad 4 swe F : .tr t é ron ':ao i ° :at i i i :'+:}t , : :SE a eat i s . :: - :' :3 : '. a 2,. . , :\'.|}po |-;.. z i ,° . :+Na nmepenneimmeence fm ee .-en ae '. ;-:;:. ,E NE OAMENpetiWOTICLE Agenda ©Key Findings ©Project Overview ©Conclusions °Recommendations KEY FINDINGS Key Findings e Historical Crossroad e Subregional Differences Require Solutions for Each Subregion e External Energy Drivers e Inflexible Business Structure e Shortage of Storage Hydro e Space Heating Conversions e Lack of Information on Potential Hydro Projects e Need for Balanced Portfolio of Resources Key Findings (continued) e Phased Approach to the Future e Economic Realities of SE Intertie Concept °AK-BC Intertie ¢Role of Technology Innovation e Aggressive Pursuit of DSM/EE and Biomass Conversion Programs e Load Uncertainties due to Economic Development Efforts and Potential Mines ¢Need for Continued State Financial Assistance and Proposed AEA Decision Framework and Policy e Encourage Private Development of Resources PROJECT OVERVIEW SE Alaska Subregions Transmission Planning Regions (ny Tenakee Springs PLT teak AE weee yy mee ene!ie \'"ALS iyChilkat ivalleyKHHaines | 'i,! :,ty q ' {4{Klukwan |my |Skagway |,u , i fhiieioasacirdOOSTEET =) LET ys t Juneau Dougiat Auke Bay ;Naukatl {coftman B iS Cove : .Fa Femmes :|Craig |Hydaburg \Kasaan : Priva oF W ales Rovian |Whak Pass | ___:[srs pA tere) ' y SEAPA GabIG? . |we fe Petersburg--i, Metiakatia Committed Resources Blue Lake Expansion Hydro (Sitka,City of Sitka Electric) Gartina Falls Hydro (Hoonah,IPEC) Reynolds Creek Hydro (Hydaberg,Haida Energy and AP&T) Thayer Creek Hydro (Angoon,Kootznoowoo,Inc.) Whitman Lake Hydro (Ketchikan,KPU) Kake -Petersburg Intertie (Kwaan Electric Transmission Intertie Cooperative) Ketchikan -Metlakatla Intertie (Metlakatla Indian Community) Expansion will increase the capacity of the existing Blue Lake Hydro Project by an estimated 8 MW and increase the average annual energy from the project by approximately 34,500 MWh. New run-of-river project near Hoonah that will provide an estimated $6.3 0.44 MW of capacity and approximately 1,800 MWh of average annual energy. New storage project located that will provide an estimated 5 MW of $28.6 capacity and approximately 19,300 MWh of average annual energy. New run-of-river project that will provide an estimated 1 MW of capacity $15.2 and approximately 8,400 MWh of average annual energy. New storage project at an existing lake located that will provide an $25.8 estimated 4.6 MW of capacity and approximately 15,900 MWh of average annual energy. New 69 kV overhead and submarine cable transmission line connecting $53.8 Kake and Petersburg. New 34.5 kV overhead and submarine cable transmission line connecting $12.7 Ketchikan and Metlakatla. Totals $238.9 $5.5 $8.1 a. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS io Conclusions -General e Shortage of hydro storage capacity e "Achilles heel”-electric space heating conversions e Significant uncertainties exist:loads,resources,potential transmission additions,and level of State financial assistance ¢Uncertainties lead to the need to: e Develop multiple options ¢Move towards a more balanced resource portfolio ¢Maintain flexibility ¢Limitations due to quality and inclusiveness of project-specific information ¢Need to base analysis on generic hydro projects e Inability to make definitive selection Conclusions -Analysis and Results e 2 integrated cases: e Optimal Hydro/Transmission Case ¢Optimal DSM/EE,Biomass,Other Renewables Case ¢Comparative results led to near-term resource selection e Committed Resources e DSM/EE e Biomass conversions e Project feasibility studies to identify next increment of hydro (AEA developed process and standards,link with REGF) Conclusions -Analysis and Results (continued) e Insufficient loads to justify expansion of transmission network ¢AK-BC Intertie is not economically viable under current conditions e Aggressive pursuit of DSM/EE delays need for incremental hydro e Aggressive pursuit of biomass conversion will result in very significant space heating savings Conclusions -Moving Forward °Two Phases oe es fl REST PHASESRESOURCESaaa(Bway)"(ea eNeIB VON) Committed Resources Vv DSM/EE Programs Vv V Biomass Conversion Programs V V Next Increment of Hydro and Other V Renewable Projects Conclusions -Moving Forward (continued) e Preferred Resource Lists developed on Subregional basis, including Committed Resources e Pursue policies to reduce electric space heating conversions e Potential impacts of mines e Need for State financial assistance e Update IRP in 3 to 5 years Recommendations -Capital Projects e Subregional Preferred Resource Lists -Phase 1 Kake-Petersburg Interconnection 2015 Ketchikan-Metlakatla Interconnection 2013 Whitman Lake Hydro 13.40)2014 Diesel 51.1 2012-2016 DSM/EE 3.1 2012-2016 Biomass 139.4 2012-2016 Admiralty Island Thayer Creek Project 13.00)2016 DSM/EE 0.08)2012-2016 Biomass 0.8 2012-2016 Baranof Island Blue Lake Hydro 47.5 2015 Diesel 20.2 2012-2016 DSM/EE 0.9 2012-2016 Biomass 14.1 2012-2016 Chichagof Island Gartina Falls Hydro 5.5 2015 Diesel 0.3 2012-2016 DSM/EE 0.0 2012-2016 Biomass 1.9 2012-2016 Juneau Diesel 20.2 2012-2016 DSM/EE 3.6 2012-2016 Biomass 63.3 2012-2016 Northern Diesel 2.8 2012-2016 DSM/EE 0.0 2012-2016 Biomass 4.1 2012-2016 Prince of Wales Reynolds Creek Hydro 5.5(2)2014 DSM/EE 0.0@)2012-2016 Biomass 8.9 2012-2016 yeeih, Recommendations -Capital Projects e Subregional Preferred Resource Lists -Phase 2 Admiralty Island Baranof Island Chichagof Juneau Northern Prince of Wales Hydro -Storage (10 MW) Diesel DSM/EE Biomass Diesel DSM/EE Biomass Diesel DSM/EE Biomass Hydro -Run of River (1 MW) Diesel DSM/EE Biomass Hydro -Storage (10 MW) Diesel DSM/EE Biomass Hydro -Storage (1 MW) Hydro -Run of River (1 MW) Diesel DSM/EE Biomass Diesel DSM/EE Biomass PROVBCHEDTOMMERETAEPRRATONDATETOBy, 2044 2017-2061 2017-2061 2017-2021 2017-2061 2017-2061 2017-2021 2017-2061 2017-2061 2017-2021 2035 2017-2061 2017-2061 2017-2021 2051 2017-2061 2017-2061 2017-2021 2017 2049 2017-2061 2017-2061 2017-2021 2017-2061 2017-2061 2017-2021 Capital Investment by Category Capital Investment by Category 2012 -2014 Capital Investment by Category 2012 -2061 m Committed Resources @ Diesel Replacement mt DSM/EE Biomass 6652 Committed Resources @ Additional Hydro &Diesel Replacement @ DSM/EE B Biomass Total Capital Investments 2012 -2014 -$346 million 2012 -2061 -$2.15 billion Subregional Equity Considerations Capital Investment by Subregion -2012 -2014 6.8 5.2 12.7 r133 5.3 MSEAPA @ Baranof island Juneau B Admiralty Island E Chichagof Island B Northern Tt Prince of Wales ®Upper Lynn Canal Capital Investment per Capita Capi tal Investment by Subregion -2012 -2061 16.2 87.6_.43: 38.2 g 101.6 ae ' mSEAPA @ Baranof Island @ Juneau @ Admiralty Island @ Chichagof Island %Northern =Prince of Wales m Upper Lynn Canal 2012-2014 2012-2061 Urban Areas SEAPA $12,495 $61,086 Baranof Island $6,313 $21,796 Juneau $1,824 $23,830 Urban Area Average $5,472 $33,725 Rural Areas Admiralty Island $29,417 $35,336 Chichagof Island $6,854 $38,216 Northern $4,670 $79,314 Prince of Wales $3,820 $13,180 Upper Lynn Canal $1,507 $28,732 Rural Area Average $4,620 $30,496 Regional Average $5,348 $33,255 Subregional Equity Considerations OPTIMAL DSM/EE,BIOMASS AND OTHER RENEWABLES CASE -SAVINGS RELATIVE TO STATUS QUO CASE Total Cumulative Net Present Value (CNPV)Savings -2012 -2061 ($'000) Oil Space Heating Plus Biomass Utility System Plus DSM Costs Costs Total $%$%$% SEAPA 221,430 49%418,993 43%640,423 45% Admiralty Island (22)0%9,592 43%9,570 32% Baranof Island 1,671 2%216,746 47%218,417 39% Chichagof Island 13,218 22%29,950 51%43,168 37% Juneau 185,117 50%977,503 46%1,162,620 47% Northern 33,670 38%77,923 53%111,593 47% Prince of Whales 3,313 14%180,036 49%183,349 47% Upper Lynn Canal 18,925 41%172,791 50%191,716 49% Total Southeast Region 477,322 41%2,083,534 46%2,560,856 45% (Includes savings from generic hydro projects. Recommendations -Other e Public outreach program e Legislative decisions regarding level and form of financial assistance e AEA decision framework and policy e Appropriate funds for regional DSM/EE program ¢Appropriate funds for regional biomass conversion program e Evaluate regional entity to implement DSM/EE and biomass conversion program ¢Appropriate funds for hydro/other renewables reconnaissance studies and FERC license applications Recommendations -Other ¢Technical/market potential study of non-hydro renewables e Support further development of tidal and wave power e Develop standard power sales agreement ¢Consider transmission open access policy e Update IRP in 2014-2015 e Evaluate rate structure changes ¢Develop weather normalized load forecasts e Streamline regulatory and permitting processes "ats CRIETTON os cere General Public Outreach/Education Program Regional DSM/EE Program Start-up Costs Regional Biomass Conversion Program Start-up Costs Formation of Regional DSM/EE Entity Start-up Costs Formation of Regional Biomass Conversion Entity Start-up Costs Hydro Project-specific High Level Reconnaissance Studies Hydro Project-specific FERC License Application Preparation Regional Technical/Economic Market Potential Assessment of Non-Hydro Renewable Technologies Other Renewable Project-specific High Level Reconnaissance Studies Support Tidal/Wave Technology Development Develop Standard Power Sales Agreement Consider Development of Open Access Policy and Related Tariff (including terms and conditions of service) Update Southeast Alaska IRP in 2014 Support Development of Tariff Structures That Better Reflect Costs Support Development of Weather Normalized Load Forecasts Total 2012 2012-2013 2012-2013 2012 2012 2012-2013 2012-2014 2012 2012-2014 2012-2014 2012 2012 2014 2012-2013 2013 Regional Supporting Studies and Other Actions $250,000 $2,325,000 $2,225,000 $500,000 $500,000 $2,000,000 $10,000,000 $500,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $200,000 $250,000 $750,000 $1,550,000 $375,000 $23,425,000 ;eeI Bul olnnxeCO}()*:.4mesPes7 "OFagai:i hk Lars (0)JGMEAKC;' J ok _7 'a :\Sate BIRAGKICNV.EALGH Southeast Alaska IRP Review MeetingsBackgroundInformation PROJECT OVERVIEW 1/4/2012 Sunt orb!Anesment feonomies toa ree ane eons Song Generation and |Reusoiey|=Or versand mues Parameters Forecasts Forecests Treserason Resource Crtena C -J LlPotential Resource Alterastves |wveorromen ] Orner GenerationResources=Conventions and Renewan-es Bomass aConversions [ransom] Existing Utility Systems Included Utility Systems 1/4/2012 Committed Resources og .#:ye "l aA .a Ae BAP =PRO}ec :i BiSCUssiGN rea niLaa0! Blue Lake Expansion Hydro Expansion will increase the capacity of the existing Blue Lake Hydro $96.5 S475 (Sitka,City of Sitka Electric)Project by an estimated 8 MW and increase the average annual energy from the project by approximately 34,500 MWh. Gartina Falls Hydro New run-of-river project near Hoonah that will provide an estimated $6.3 $5.5 (Hoonah,IPEC)0.44 MW of capacity and approximately 1,800 MWh of average annual energy. Reynolds Creek Hydro New storage project located that will provide an estimated S$MW of $28.6 $8.1 (Hydaberg,Haida Energy and capacity and approximately 19,300 MWh of average annual energy. AP&T) Thayer Creek Hydro New nun-of-river project that will provide an estimated 1 MW of capacity $15.2 $13.0 (Angoon,Kootznoowoo,Inc}and approximately 8,400 MWh ofaverage annual energy. Whitman Lake Hydro New storage project at an existing lake located that will provide an $258 $13.4 (Ketchikan,KPU)estimated 4.6 MW of capacity and approximately 15,900 MWh of average annual energy. Kake -Petersburg Intertie New 69 kV overhead and submarine cable transmission line connecting $538 $48.3 (Kwaan Electric Transmission |Kake and Petersburg.Intertie Cooperative) Ketchikan -Metlakatla Intertie |New 34.5 kV overhead and submarine cable transmission line connecting $12.7 $8.2 0.Indian C ity)kan and Totals $238.9 $144.0 Issues and Drivers |necionncassest 1 e Federal and State energy policy legislation e@ Uniqueness of Southeast Alaska e Fossil fuel prices and availability e Subregional Differences e Land use regulations °.Cost of electricity ©Conversion to electric space heating ©Rapidly declining excess hydroelectricity ©.Declining population in communities ©Declining economies in communities e High cost of space heating e Difficulty in developing new hydroelectricity and transmission interconnection projects ©Low levels of weatherization and energy efficiency e Availability and cost of capital e Risk management issues 1/4/2012 1/4/2012 GENERAL ASSUMPTIONS General Assumptions ¢Fuel Price Projections and Emission Allowance Costs *Community Diesel *Heating Oil ¢Economic Parameters *Inflation and Escalation Rates e Financing Rates ¢Present Worth Discount Rate e Interest During Construction Rate e Fixed Charge Rate ¢Reliability Criteria List of Sections that Summarize Assumptions *Section 4 -Description of Existing System and Committed Resources ¢Section 5 -Fuel Price Projections *Section 6 -Economic Parameters ¢Section 7 -Reliability Criteria e Section 8 -Load Forecasts *Section 9 -Financing Alternatives *Section 10 -Potential Hydro Projects ©Section 11 -Other Generating Unit Alternatives *Section 12 -Transmission Interconnection Alternatives e Section 13 -Demand-Side Options *Section 14 -Weatherization *Section 15 -Space Heating Conversion ELECTRIC LOAD AND HEATING REQUIREMENTS FORECASTS 1/4/2012 Electric Load Forecasts -Assumptions ¢Sources of information include: ¢Historical loads/existing load forecasts from utilities ¢Department of Labor population forecast ¢Census ¢Information from utilities ¢B&V analysis and development of load forecast e Reference Scenario -continuing existing trends ¢High Scenario -economic development and EVs ¢Low Scenario -DSM/EE and policies to discourage heating conversion Electric Load Forecasts -Results See Subregion Summary Sheets 1/4/2012 Space Heating Forecast -Assumptions ¢Sources of information include: ¢Alaska Energy Pathway ¢Department of Labor population forecast e Census ¢B&V developed Reference Case heating requirements forecast Space Heating Forecast -Results See Subregion Summary Sheets a eeAFeyy 1/4/2012 HYDRO PROJECT EVALUATION Hydro Evaluation Process eo "7 iaae tee: v Seaatbaternmans > §; aie' Ld 'latnnlh dei 1/4/2012 Limitations of Hydro Evaluation ¢Variety in quality and inclusiveness of project information «CODs ¢Capital costs ¢Energy output/storage capacity ¢Environmental,permitting and licensing issues ¢Business structure and agreements ¢Inability to make "apples to apples”comparison and definitive choice among projects ¢Need for AEA Standardized Decision Package Screened Potential Hydro Project List data-Kuak lale (Coscnde Croak (Connell take Lake Shaloloas Mahoney Lala(Orchard Lake Wrangell Prearsborg Kercholous PEOCRDCOE9056-13882 14635-21953 $.40-1090 3900-9100 5081.76 20-7000 0454-12682 12090-199.468 10647096 110,11-138 17 12463-2098 11200-16800 10S20-15,799 2091-3136, 3176-6353 3,900-9,100 48994-8392 3420-7990 42741 2.550-5.950 27614196 3,067-4400 7347-14020 6.000-4,120 4.480-6.720 70,100 202,00 10,690 Note:This table is provided for general information purposes. The information shown in this table was gathered from multiple sources,and the quality and inclusiveness of this information varies significantly across the projects shown.Black &Veatch and HDR have completed a high- level review of this availabie information and show a range of capital costs for each project to reflect the uncertainties associated with the available information.As a result of the wide variation in the quality and inclusiveness of project-specific information,the AEA believes that this information should not be used,in i erent form, make any investment decisions. 1/4/2012 Requirements Gaps -SEAPA Subregion(EXAMPLE) SEAPA Annual Diesel Generation Diesel -Reference Case Load Forecast 400,000 350,000 300,000 -- 2 200,000=150,000 |!a100,000 }oo we a 250,000 ;-o-eooe<¢: Diesel-High Case Load Forecast j 50,000 «.--_--- Ocvrrirecs:1 re Yv 9 ©WS &AN S ad So AD yg?3D NgBNSPYPP?Oh?BP LY GtAPTABTAPTABEAPEAPTABABEAP?AP?APT PE APP? 'Mvaliahla Projects |Potential.Pountal Note:the potential sanual generation gure(s}trem Scromed |Armed |AralcbleProjecstrom |daweel shorn inthe tabe wil ier iam acaal generation,|Pree Sonesta |papas tenran cad it rein WA lr Eom pec prot[amaKankake |2300 |SomeryCk 10 cobebiinesCucadeCet[30030 |Serie Lake nie bad 'Connell Later wee 'Thoms Lake tue[te Sacco |008 |TrangLae EC]|Mahoneytake |anes Tyeelew Dan Constructo [9100[Orchard tar $4000 |TyeediewThadTartine |R/Aathabeae|irra Late [sts00 Development of Generic Hydro Projects $12 7 ma Me 369 1"182 STORAGE 1 t16 $200 $1338 ($103 BE Ld a77 7 ”"7 6448 "1 wm a2 oa ms s we $900 $347)$516 9200 6G BAS6 |9S12 «299622832114 31H 1846S)1753 KS 1502 20S ONS ETS. w $75 wee 94272 «$1032 7508 056 S7712 «7026 SPTZ 4466 4229 46396690507 68S 3004 411600 «12D =wt S900 $0112 $2064 4888 66 315424 14052 11983 931 8458)-9Z73-7ETY)7014771 6087 =g252 12074 14699 s $108 '$900 99.031 $2500 (4370 06 144,200 17566-14979 11164 10872 11591 9226-8767 =92187509 1029115038 18374 20k Sa A Ee oe 1/4/2012 10 Gerree mete wate Renee tere =Nee nta terres Haro Results -SEAPA Subregion Hydro Project Risk Evaluation DEVELOPMENT LEVEL (1)Design Level-geology known,engineeringhighforcost{2)Feasibility level of information @)level of of current design (4)Previous study information is outdated (5)low for cost LICENSING/PERMITTING (1)Advanced,terms and conditions of resources agencies known (evidenced by 2nd stage u Draft License Appl or FERC License) {3)Minimal (evidenced by Pretiminary Permit, Preliminary i De Ast stage consultation) (5)None CONSTRUCTABILITY /RELIABILITY ACCESS (1)Existing road access,nearby community (3)No road access,nearby community (5S)No road access,remote location BUSINESS AND FINANCIAL STRUCTURE (1)Financing in place (2)Power Sales and Wheeling Agreements in place (3)Power Sales and Wheeling Agreements in active negotiation (4)Ownership established (5)Ownership not established HYDROLOGY (1)Low -existing gage data,detailed hydrologic study resulting in high confidence for energy estimate. (3)High-minimal site specific hydrologic data ing inlow for energy estimate OPERATING FLEXIBILITY (1)More than 25 percent of project's energy is available in February through April (3)More than 20 percent of project's energy is available in February through April (5)Less than 20 percent of project's energy is available in February through April PROJECT LINE MAINTENANCE (1)Project is near a community,overhead transmission line (3)Project is remote,overhead transmission line {5)Connected by submarine cable 1/4/2012 11 Hydro Project Risk Evaluation ittsslmaeusmistisindeaitetetatesepsetesitianiage:SS ELSES TE teaseemedtoeesLRreBetSee ae poecee wet :,cone nanan Connel Lae cman 'Lake Shetek Weg Mahoney Lane Keubien Orchard Lee Meyers ChastehLasPomrebusgrene-freves Lee Wrage 'Theme Lae Wamget 'Trang tobe Metiahatha'Tyee teow Dain Comtrwoayn 'Weangel 'Tyee Hew Thiet Turbine Weg 'Vepase Lae 'Wregett ommteae un - Chinhaget tend'Crmolend Crock and fin's Loken iia Coren'Tetenn Paver 'Tovehes Gprnge'War Supply Cork Mesa duncan AvenLateDerwthy Sapansion hero 'Penstboart Lake |tealUpperLynnCanalConnetiyLaterManse =o - development process.There ratings ara not additive for te projects.G Hs current form,to make any i nt gecipong, Note:Tha rish-related ratings shown in this table are based upon the project-specific information available at this time and subject to change as project:mova through thebelievesthatthisinformationshouldnotbe OTHER GENERATING UNIT ALTERNATIVES 1/4/2012 12 Other Generation Technologies Considered ¢Geothermal ¢Wind e Wave Energy Conversion °Tidal ¢Biomass *Coal e Diesel Renewables Potential wow Municipal ty of Shay way Te ieee City &Borctagly .Of Faokutat»v p Cy &Bota Po Ct vrasged S es".Sealasha Corp |. loa .. ws Ta se aneere N,Pa awe,' ykCry&Borough S7 x ACOfSthaman. me Ms. |pion CG Gan! Legers NumbersArdSpeed Meoyss Weborass Calon Ges eccwrs Gatom Ts "as *é 1/4/2012 13 TRANSMISSION EVALUATION Transmission Interconnections Evaluated ¢SEI-1A:Hawks Inlet -Hoonah ©SEI-2:Kake -Petersburg ¢SEI-3:Ketchikan -Metlakatla e SEI-4:Ketchikan -Prince of Wales ¢SEI-5:Kake -Sitka ¢SEI-6:Hawks Inlet -Angoon -Sitka Two Cases Evaluated *Economic *Public Benefit *SEI-6 Alternate:Hoonah -Tenakee Springs -Angoon -Sitka e SEI -5 and SEI-6:North -South ¢SEI-7:Hoonah -Gustavus ¢SEI-8:Juneau -Haines ¢SEI-9:Pelican -Hoonah RY &nn 1/4/2012 14 Transmission Economic Case Evaluation ina]. 7 , Peo SEI-IA Hawies Inlet-Hoonah 2,802 2,891 SEI-4 Ketchikan -Prince of Wales 9,094 197 SEL-S Kake -Sitka 31821 498 SEI-6 Hawi inlet -Angoon -Sitka 11,104 1025 SEI-6 Alternate Hoonah-Tenakee Springs-Angoon -Sitka 7,290 1,607 SEI-SandSEI-6 North-South 93,180 262 SEL7 Hoonah -Gustavus r)- SEI-B Juneau -Haines 49H 3,902 SBI-9 Petican-Hoonah 632 8128 2011 Diesel GenerationCost 25s Note 1:The annual average transfer over the interconnection is determined by taking the sum of the annual flows for each segmentof each interconnectionas modeledtnStrategsst®for the 50-year planning period and dividing the sum by 50, Note 2:The annual transmission interconnection cost does not inchide any cost for generating the electricity that would be transmitted over esch transmissioninterconnection. eekccncaeaa Hawls Inbet- Hoonah Ketchikan-Prince ofWales Kake-Sitka 'Hawks inlet-Angoon-Sitka Hoonah -Tenakee Springs -Angoon - Sitka North -South Hoonash -Gurtavus Jenean -Hanes Pelican -Hooneh: 137 a3 1/4/2012 15 DEMAND-SIDE OPTIONS DSM/EE Measure Cost-Effectiveness Screening ¢Cost-Effectiveness Tests ¢Total Resource Cost (TRC)Test ¢Ratepayer Impact Measure (RIM)Test ¢Participant Test e Categories of Communities ¢High Cost Utilities ¢Mid Cost Utilities ¢Low Cost Utilities 1/4/2012 16 DSM/EE Measure Cost-EffectivenessScreeningResults See DSM Cost-Effectiveness Screening Results Sheets -«d@---_- DSM/EE Programs Included in Low ScenarioLoadForecasts k=.b|COMMERCIAL ANDUSTEU >| HIGH COST UTILITIES Water Heater Water Heater Motor Refrigeration Lighting Cooling/Heating MEDIUM COST UTILITIES Appliance Water Heater Water Heater Motor Lighting Refrigeration Lighting Cooling/Heating LOW COST UTILITIES Appliance Water Heater Water Heater Office Load Lighting Motor Cooling/Heating Lighting Refrigeration Cooling/Heating %OPNI$Fot1/4/2012 17 1/4/2012 DSM/EE Program Impacts See Subregion Summary Sheets SPACE HEATING CONVERSIONS 18 Space Heating Biomass Conversions -Admiralty Island (EXAMPLE) Admiraltylsland OnVanirey2 BB 2s 3 8 3RRRRRPFRR RF FRE Ee +Scace tong DierumrtrTROR5 - DavesesO -Scare teatag RFR Fs PRR S Petts(Torey,REXISTING ¥ E) eu SPACEHEATIN 7 i 4 :é panes °hepa (ie a RECON ee Ba |baie ae |a SEAPA 977,320 238,441 61,875 558,327 418,993 Admiralty Island 22,334 6,830 4,717 1,195 12,742 9,592 Baranof Island 460,426 121,745 98,280 23,658 243,680 216,746 Chichagof Island 58,459 13,753 11,950 2,806 28,509 29,950 Juneau 2,120,883 $41,759 490,307 111,314 1,143,380 977,803 Northern 147,786 39,089 23,925 6,849 69,863 77,923 Prince of Whales 366,725 94,304 77,469 14,916 186,689 180,036 Upper Lynn Canal 347,271 90,274 67,919 16,287 174,480 172,791 Total Southeast 4,501,204 1,165,765 1,013,008 238,897 2,417,670 2,083,534 Region e "« 1/4/2012 19 Pellet Conversion Program -Annual CapitalCosts APS SL LeLeLee 2012 «25,201,783 143,994 2,663,683 313,738 11,379,543 780,689 1,329,524 10,300 1,624,722 43,447,975 2013 26,393,070 108,636 2,644,399 417,040 12,016,390 749,208 1,504,568 44,982 1,828,249 45,706,543 2014 (27,875,739 249,470 2,825,901 327,381 12,675,742 826.232 1,746,178 10,927 1,839,606 48,379,177 2015 =29,442,860 146,091 2,916,306 320,320 13,315,782 800,462 2,048,651 47,722 2,290,523 51,328,717 2016 «=.30,490,589 107,117 3,019,677 503,357 13,953,371 994,554 2,104,778 17,389 2152,772 53,243,603 2017 =.30,749,354 149,018 2,976,295 327,987 14,495,078 649,210 1,881,349 56,598 2,048,874 53,533,663 2018 =31,923,774 222,484 3,180,577 285,577 15,136,673 926,034 1,983,787 6,149 2,087,342 55,752,396 2019 =-33,054,972 104,382 3,157,551 418,921 15,930,901 900,927 1,995,923 12,666 2,143,628 57,719,872 2020 «34,360,615 156,312 3,252,278 296,444 36,578,970 988,953 2,098,075 61846 2,243,688 60,037,181 2021 «35,869,061 104,019 9,482,222 298,618 17,373,076 1,011,902 2,417,475 13,439 2,543,899 62,813,711 -- SUMMARY OF INTEGRATED RESULTS 1/4/2012 20 1/4/2012 Results of Integrated Cases -RegionalSummary Optimal Hydro/Transmission Case Optimal DSM/EE,Biomass and Other Renewables Case Status Quo Case 1,407 2,030 3,093 770 5,654 Results of Integrated Cases -SubregionalSavings OPTIMAL HYDRO/TR.DN CASE -SAVINGS RELATIVE TO STATUS QUO CASE Total Cumulative Net Present Value (CNPV)Savings -2012 -2061 Oil Space Heating Utility System Costs Plus Costs Total $%$%$% SEAPA 167,356 37%0 0%167,356 12% Admiralty [sland 0 0%0 0%L')0% Baranof Island 198 0%0 0%198 0% Chichagof Island 7,934 13%Qo 0%7,934 7% Juneau 136,408 37%Q 0%136,408 5% Northern 26,239 29%Q 0%26,239 11% Prince of Whales o 0%0 0%Q 0% Upper Lynn Canal 2,065 4%L 0%2,065 1% Total Southeast Region 340,200 30%LJ 0%340,200 6% 21 1/4/2012 Results of Integrated Cases -SubregionalSavings OPTIMAL DSM/EE,BIOMASS AND OTHER RENEWABLES CASE -SAVINGS RELATIVE TO STATUS QUO CASE Total Cumulative Net Present Value (CNPV)Savings -2012 -2061{s°000) Oi)Space Heating Plus Biomass Utility System Plus DSM Costs(1)Costs Total $%$%$% SEAPA 221,430 49%418,993 43%640,423 45% Admiralty Island (22)0%9,592 43%9,570 32% Baranof Island 1,671 2%216,746 47%218,417 39% Chichagof Island 13,218 22%29,950 51%43,168 37% Juneau 185,117 50%977,503 46%1,162,620 47% Northern 33,670 38%77,923 53%111,593 47% Prince of Whales 3,313 14%180,036 49%183,349 47% Upper Lynn Canal 18,925 41%172,791 50%191,716 49% Total Southeast Region 477,322 41%2,083,534 46%2,560,856 45% Includes savings from generic hydro projects. Results of integrated Cases -SubregionalSavings OPTIMAL DSM/EE,BIOMASS AND OTHER RENEWABLES CASE -SAVINGS RELATIVE TO OPTIMAL HYDRO/TRANSMISSION CASE Total Cumulative Net Present Value (CNPV)Savings -2012 -2061 ($'000) Oil Space Heating Plus Biomass Utility System Plus DSM Costs Costs Total $%$%$% SEAPA 54,074 19%418,993 43%473,067 37% Admiralty Island (22)0%9592 43%9,570 32%Baranof Island 1,473 2%216,746 47%218,219 39% Chichagof Island 5,284 10%29,950 51%35,234 32% Juneau 48,709 21%977,503 46%1,026,212 44% Northern 7,431 12%77,923 53%85,354 40% Prince of Whales 3,313 14%180,036 49%183,349 47% Upper Lynn Canat 16,860 38%172,791 50%189,651 48% Total Southeast Region 137,122 17%2,083,534 46%2,220,656 42% 22 IMPLEMENTATION RISKS AND ISSUES Puei Of Limited Limited Significant Moderate Limited United Moderate Significant Hydro Limited -Moderate N/A Moderate Moderate Limited -Limited LimitedModerateModerate Biomass Ltmited -Limited Moderate Limited N/A Limited-Limited Limited.Moderate Moderate Moderate Wind Moderate Moderate N/A Limited Significant Limited -Limited Limited - Moderate Moderate Geothermal Significant Limited -N/A Limited -Moderate -Limited -Limited Limited Moderate Soltd Waste Significant Moderate-N/A Significant Moderate Limited Limived-ModerateSignificantModerateModerate Tidal/Wave Limited Significant N/A Mod .-Limited - Coal Significant Modular Limited d Modi Nuclear Transmission =Limited Significant N/A Moderate N/A Significant Moderate -N/A Significant 1/4/2012 23 1/4/2012 NEAR-TERM IMPLEMENTATION PLAN (2012-2014) E.APITALPR TS ;4 besoin az] Committed Resources e@ Kake-Petersburg Transmission Intertie (SEI-2)2013-2015 $48,290,000 o Estimated total cost -$53,780,000 ©Previous grants -$5,490,000 ©Remaining project cost -$48,290,000 e@ Ketchikan-Metlakatla T;issi 2012-2013 $8,225,200 Intertie (SEI-3) o Estimated total cost -$12,725,200 o Previous grants -$4,500,000 o Remaining project cost -$8,225,200 @ Whitman Lake Hydroelectric 2012-2014 $13,400,000 o Estimated total cost -$25,830,000 o Previous grants -$12,420,000 ©Remaining project cost -$13,400,000 Replacement of Existing Diesel Generation Facilities 2012 $39,685,000 DSM/EE Programs 2012 $69,100 2013 $169,900 2014 $395,300 Biomass Conversion Program 2012 $25,201,800 2013 $26,393,100 2014 $27,875,700 SEAPA Subregion Total (2012-2014)$189,705,100 24 Capital Projects -Admiralty Island Subregion Committed Resources e Thayer Creek Hydroelectric oc Estimated total cost -$15,201,100 o Previous grants -$2,156,100 ©Remaining project cost -$13,045,000 DSM/EE Programs Biomass Conversion Program Admiralty Island Subregion Total (2012-2014) 2012-2016 2012 2013 2014 2012 2013 2014 $13,045,000 $100 $100 $300 $144,000 $108,600 $249,500 $13,547,600 Capital Projects -Baranof Island Subregion |See Committed Resources Blue Lake Expansion Hydro Estimated total cost -$96,500,000 Previous State funding -$49,000,000 Previous bond net proceeds -$20,000,000 ° ° ° o Remaining project cost -$27,500,000 Replacement of Existing Diesel Generation Facilities DSM/EE Programs Biomass Conversion Program Baranof Island Subregion Total (2012-2014) 2012-2015 2012 2012 2013 2014 2012 2013 2014 $27,500,000 $20,220,000 $20,800 $50,800 $118,100 $2,663,700 $2,664,400 $2,825,900 $56,063,700 1/4/2012 25 1/4/2012 Capital Projects -Chichagof Island Subregion BEARITALPROVECTSM Committed Resources e Gartina Falls Hydroelectric o Estimated total cost -$6,330,000 o Previous grants -$850,000 ©Remaining project cost -$5,480,000 Replacement of Existing Diesel Generation Facilities DSM/EE Programs Biomass Conversion Program Chichagof Island Subregion Total (2012-2014) 2012-2015 $5,480,000 2012 $303,500 2012 $600 2013 $1,400 2014 $3,100 2012 $313,700 2013 $417,000 2014 $327,400 $6,846,700 k Replacement of Existing Diesel Generation Facilities DSM/EE Programs Biomass Conversion Program Juneau Area Subregion Total (2012-2014) 2012 $20,220,000 2012 $82,200 2013 $201,500 2014 $468,800 2012 $11,379,500 2013 $12,016,400 2014 $12,675,700 $57,044,100 26 1/4/2012 Capital Projects --Northern Subregion Li.a CAPITAL PROJECTS AOD Escenas |ize Replacement of Existing Diesel Generation Facilities 2014 $2,790,200 DSM/EE Programs 2012 $900 2013 $2,100 2014 $4,700 Biomass Conversion Program 2012 $780,700 2013 $749,200 2014 $828,200 Northern Region Subregion Total (2012-2014)$5,156,000 Capital Projects -Prince of Wales Subregion -- --TC...ome Committed Resources e Reynolds Creek Hydroelectric 2012-2014 $8,061,500 o Estimated total cost -$28,581,500 o Previous grants -$20,520,000 ©Remaining project cost -$8,061,500 DSM/EE Programs 2012 $100 2013 $100 2014 $200 Biomass Conversion Program 2012 $1,339,800 2013 $1,549,600 2014 $1,757,100 Prince of Wales Subregion Total (2012-2014)$12,708,400 27 Capital Projects --Upper Lynn Canal Subregion |. DORA R PITAL PROECTS :y :ae ,TMAGa $3,500 $8,700 $20,500 $1,624,700 $1,828,200 $1,839,600 Upper Lynn Canal Subregion Total (2012-2014)$5,325,200 oe DSM/EE Programs Biomass Conversion Program |< bso: General Public Qutreach/Education Program 2012 $250,000 ©Focused on:1)results of Southeast Alaska IRP project, 2)benefits of DSM/EE programs,and 3)benefits of biomass conversion program Regional DSM/EE Program Start-up Costs 2012-2013 $2,325,000 ©Initial staff-related costs (e.g.,salaries,benefits,office space)for first year of program start-up -$1,000,000 e Customer attitudinal survey -$75,000 ©Market and economic potential study -$250,000 «Detailed program plan -$500,000 e e ° Trade ally surveys and training/certification program -$150,000 DSM/EE measurement and evaluation protocol -$100,000 Start-up advertising program -$250,000 Regional Biomass Conversion Program Start-up Costs 2012-2013 $2,225,000 e Initial staff-related costs (e.g.,salaries,benefits,office space)for first year of program start-up -$1,000,000 Customer attitudinal survey -$75,000 Market and economic potential study -$250,000 Detailed program plan -$500,000 Trade ally surveys and training/certification program -$150,000 Start-up advertising program -$250,000 1/4/2012 28 Regional Supporting Studies and Other Actions(continued) Formation of Regional DSM/EE Entity Start-up Costs 2012 $500,000 e Regional entity start-up costs (e.g.,organizational strategy,legal, etc.) Formation of Regional Biomass Conversion Entity Start-up Costs 2012 $500,000 e Regional entity start-up costs (e.g.,organizational strategy,legal, etc.) Hydro Project-specific High Level Reconnaissance Studies 2012-2013 $2,000,000 @ 20 studies at $100,000 each Hydro Project-specific FERC License Application Preparation 2012-2014 $10,000,000 e 10 projects at $1,000,000 each Regional Technical /E ic Market P jal A ofNon-2012 $500,000 Hydro Renewable Technologies Other Renewable Project-specific High Level Reconnaissance 2012-2014 $1,000,000 Studies «©5 studies at $200,000 each Support Tidal/Wave Technology Development 2012-2014 $1,000,000 Regional Supporting Studies and Other Actions(continued) Lk DESCRIPTION Develop Standard Power Sales Agreement Consider Development of Open Access Policy and Related Tariff (including terms and conditions of service) Update Southeast Alaska IRP in 2014 Support Development of Tariff Structures That Better Reflect Costs e@ Develop and hold workshop(s)to address the issue that the last block in tariffs should better reflect incremental costs -$50,000 e Conduct cost-of-service studies for communities to determine what rates should be for the last block -$1,500,000 Support Development of Weather Normalized Load Forecasts *Develop and hold workshop(s)to address need for,and approaches to,weather normalized load forecasting methodologies,which will b more important as heating becomes a bigger load -$50,000 ©Develop a standard load forecasting methodology -$75,000 ©Develop short-term weather normalized load forecasts for each utility -$250,000 Total 2012 $200,000 2012 $250,000 2014 $750,000 2012-2013 $1,550,000 2013 $375,000 $23,425,000 1/4/2012 29