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HomeMy WebLinkAboutSEIRP summary of results 2011Summary of Results Electric Load Forecast Space Heating Subregion:SEAPA -cea g SEAPA |SEAPA BID.090 y=en ee ne crete tre etee ne -5999999 ---wens a 45009 ||i ' FO0,000 4 <r ee ne e ee ee et semen oe ._:i 4590990 +SS <"="4 49900 | fl !i Hii{i tiODIID9$a ne ce nn et nt ec tet ed 600,000 :+35000 'i i : i |3500999 -ee 'j ;'30999 509.009 --| ,me 3999099 +---won presses woe ae-=F +25000 §|£ :i|=400.000 |"3 2599999 +--=we ee eg 2 =;29900 ri:|2099999 +-os -ee Faei cnn:309,090 -: |13000! 1599999 +--oe || £209,009 +- 19000 : 1900900 +so - i b : "499,000 +--noes sete ve wee ee - _-at 5 : oes,i 599090 4 one soe en 5000 pt eseen ft Onssee Le QO attr ee pe ee prey pee tpe re ret wee pny por et ey QD teeter ree root rotor roar rere oe poco orc rt 9 Mee oe map ot Dy nd 0 nb AO AY nd nO AB oD nb nh 9 nd O DD oh 2 Od ob ©oS SF A AP AD ah ah AO A oP ak oP 9 OP pO sh oh VO Bh OP Oh Gh OP oP VOBrGPS?GPM PPS Ph SP SP SP PM Pr oP ol PPP PF EE SE ABYABY BY AH”BY SY Sr SY GHG?8 48?8?8 GP GPG”GPS?9?48 87.8"8 Kake SEAPA-eligh mmr sn mmm SEAPA-OEM i mmm Existing Oil-Space Heating =---Displaced Oil -Space Heatirg ...|Loco ceee oe nee ec nen nenng cgiaeenna nett vues uy et)fete ene een BePetersburgCumulativePresentWorthCost($000s)-Oil Only:977,320 Wrangell Cumulative Present Worth Cost ($000s)-Biomass &Oil:558,327 Ketchikan/Saxman Metlakatla Electric Utility Expansion Plan Electric Utility Expansion Plan F F joe ee ee cee ne ee cee ees ee ey eee ty xpan _ee Expansion Plan Alternatives: ;: Phhe Tih EBS FE ieSEAPA-Reference Case SEAPA-Low Case 500,000 acai So re nr ee nee ae ns oe res coal |i $09,000 we ee --l |i 'i | {450.000 SP mmr serene oe corer as -mt rememen nameotaes cannes {$50,000 enn rn Tr temo cena Trenras sire mean _7 7 'ommitted:'EEE PE Etta rg ate 2 EELSi),4 909.090 pornnnmer ee oe i 409,990 +ee ee ;Riahs ;Generic Hyd350.000 #----- ---- ---=359,000 }------eee eee :gee tiga ee aye |' :Diese]: 300,000 {300.000 en : [!a eeE250.000 z 259,000 :"Biomass Space H t t Ps UE CEL 4 Py Fs |{ind 200.000 209.009 Wind -Project Deve Sets : 159,000 150,000 |: 100,000 193.0090 : 50,000 59.090 'i |<cele eh A Sa a San es see ali a aa Aan oan ae in aoe el a r rrr sn eet ee as T 0 for Tor on aenenee T peng ne peep ma peep ane pe r -7 + : Sh nh AO NP AD Ah nh nO Ae aD nv nb >©>©©«8 <% h £© %+ b © © ©O F - A»«© b D AD o b ©vr ©.&SS <r S&S &:SPP PPP PPP PPP HPP PPP FS Br PPP oP SH SP SPP PF SF PS PF SE PPK IF FSS ve Reference Case Diesel Generation Reference Case Hydro Generation aumeReference Case Load Forecast ie Low Case Diesel Generation Low Case Hydro Generation ommmm,_-v Case Load Forecast : a . . eo eee ee vee Lee _j {Cumulative Present Worth Cost ($000s):|288,797]234,723]|Cumulative Present Worth Cost ($000s)-Including DSM: Figure Error!No text of specified style in document.-1 Subregion Summary -SEAPA BLACK &VEATCH |Error!No text of Specitied style in document.1 i |4990 +-- |i 3509 +- Subregion:Admiralty Island | :3.999 fo- 2,590 + s al CreekAagoon 2,999MWh Electric Load Forecast _ Admiralty Island Summary of Results Space Heating Admiralty IslandA 149900 <-- 1509 ¢-- Angoon (wh4,000 2.000 1,000 890 feo - ome Acirrirsit,'sland Electric Utility Expansion Plan 8.090 -- Admiralty Island -Reference Case 7.000 6.000 7-- 5,000 - 3,000 + no Reference Case Diesel Generation Popor vr cep erp tt + S ? ror perp TsRi Dh po gh DD POssoghPrFPEP SGLPPPKPSSo7 Reference Case Hydro Generation emp Reference Case Load Forecast 1,999 4 -re mmm admiralty sland -digh [Cumulative Present Worth Cost ($000s):|8,022| Figure Error!No text of specified style in document.-2 Subregion Summary -Admiralty Island BLACK &VEATCH |Pelicts(Tons)|120999 +-_-|2099 {i : i :' | :i 100900 t==mee 1 ang 1 Be 0099 : :8 '+699 t G4 i s ;|=: |i O 69000 2 --oo i _-_ i : _»499 :40090 +. : : :*299':29090 :: Soe ce epee pe ne we ogrepee eg vee eg Ot wrpe pm ee ropece op peep tO,A Dm 0 5%OD oh am 0 nd aD nh ab 1©a O Dd gh 1 9 OO LD Db Lo o_O>46 9 >6 ©SH a OAM Dh a AE AP OP Sh oP OP OP B®ph ph ph pm GP Gh Pr PGP?GFsoeaadAsaalReSeeSoSSFLLLLLMLLLLLLLLHKKPPPHHHHYH¥ ome Acirriralt,sland -SS :awe Existing Oil-Space Heating --SisplacedOil-Space Heating Cumulative Present Worth Cost ($000s)-Oil Only:22,334 Cumulative Present Worth Cost ($000s)-Biomass &Oil:12,742 Electric Utility Expansion Plan Admiralty Island -Low Case 9 ot) aon voceee teats set ee ee a - 79m ° &303 §30) $L3 a0 ---- 3900 >Creek Hydr eo). lao + Qo ,., <»to >LJ cS-roa ra a sa aa es ao ee ee -s -al Rd Ro Roa Rood £°2 Road Rnd wot LO Case Sesel Geveratar Low Cese 4010 Gendranar emmy:Case Load Forecast Cumulative Present Worth Cost ($000s)-Including DSM:|8,044] Summary of Results Electric Load Forecast Baranof Island Space Heating Baranof Island Pelicts(Tors)1 i H '399.999 >Tomes saponin semangse aes ares mee ae scenescarmen eo Sse meen neers cae i 12990090 p=ene ee vee eee mea '1 ,:: {t '|: '©1690 'i i !1899099 -----.-=nee ed 16999 ;i oy.259,900 +-:1Subregion:Baranof Island |: 4g00000 cece ee eet evans te eened ae itienee een pene +14909 i i|; Fit Valve isett 300.000 + 1499099 ----=12000 Seia jeer pgs 12990909 -ad cee one Lake ;ry 1 +19993 Bias Lobe Fapamins «=' g _ 159.930 -1909039 -five Lake z 'g 8999 820990 ----7 - .:»$999 i 139.959 ry .ae ee eee ee eee _od -as ae -ee ate t :Sitka :699999 §- :«4909 i ; 490099 +- : ; 59900 ©=oe ee woe -:see Be . 290999 +2 £000 Ole ee ee ee,Dotter rer peep ee ergs .+we ye ye ee ->Cy >oe co »©"7 be fo Sg y »S&S ©SM PF FR RR a a Ea SPVv*)a SJ v oO A)S a >>>S y >So <)S +&>S S)0 cS)>oO Oo oO 9?ay oO AD Ss oO AS oO o oO oO S'.)s SV a sv s¥)'I "J <<>>><3 Ne <7 Sy)S v vv Vw rr yr +YY vy rr ve ey OYSLLLKKKKKKKKKLPFLLLLLSLLSs ommsZarsnof sland prancf sland -igh --Sprancé slanc -SSM amr Znisting Oil-Space deatirg ---Sisplsced Oil-Space deating Cumulative Present Worth Cost ($000s)-Oil Only:460,426 Cumulative Present Worth Cost ($000s)-Biomass &Oil:243,680 Electric Utility Expansion Plan Electric Utility Expansion Plan Baranof Island -Reference Case Baranof island -Low Case .*, rea 0 .Expansion Plan Alternatives:ue be ude Baranof Island asogal 189.999 sake bap aco haa a00 Committed Resour a _eehige siete Bearers - P2990);pea one -_-o ps re 295909 - H t exon +.aa2aaa - 1 we i Sem ms ; agoano |appoo so 3R02 +23000 iAk eeneee etree ee ee Re gt .Ne Qe i [nner .woe moe a *->J Ss 4 "aPFFPF!SP PT GF pF SP GF pt oh oF GP Wr yew gh sr er eh ig?SF Fr FP Se FSP So FS Ker KK LP KP sh gr of eee COPTOTCO.De NO PierOsBOE.Relere ce 6 wie tr ee tele ame tete:eroe cate abt Fora ast te De CNR MetteGarmeata vty CRO HLA GAO rR RTT OTOL NTE |Cumulative Present Worth Cost ($000s):{97,345]|Cumulative Present Worth Cost ($000s)-Including DSM:|95,872| Figure Error!No text of specified style in document.-3 Subregion Summary -Baranof {sland BLACK &VEATCH | Subregion:Chichagof Island 604 Cove. toenss Cotes eeOyaon" LeaieTd Tonswe ipa e Elfin Cove Hoonah Pelican Tenakee Springs Electric Utility Expansion Plan B.O9D +---MWhSummary of Results Electric Load Forecast Chichagof Island 6.009 + 4909 ;-- 2.009 + °:-on a a -ween +2»©.%OO D ab ©&OD aD oS >©Db wD 2 1 ©DY ob ©&OSSPODaPPOPohohOPOPPSPPoPwoLLLLLLLMKMMLLLLLKKFFPPKHKYYf . ome Chichagef sisrd Chichagof Island -Reference Case comma Chichagef !sland -High m=Chichaget stand -SS%t Electric Utility Expansion Plan Chichagof Island -Low Case 28509) LIQIIG $2995 Space Heating Chichagof Island é ae a - 3 1$2935 292092 > s s s s s rt -=-s =-°--s s. meee ester Ca See teererg a Sele we Cob brace Neateg Cumulative Present Worth Cost ($000s)-Oil Only:58,459 Cumulative Present Worth Cost ($000s)-Biomass &Oil:28,509 " soe aoq9 gn9 ROOD -AD: to00 T7490 6090 wm 639 ie ea $905 ©a E a anno S592 +_- S000 tr ”$230 - TWD»-al 1.990 ”}a0a + Fe :ao ee ane ARR een cee seme Hemmeret cect we ee neta a Qe cee eminent anne canine eat cnaeeteeeeaeeens nheBar tem ae --cen amet meen ee oe tae ct cene stmornennn +4%2b 4b x ob +%al 4B oF >ww yb ny +be ®oO a er a,2 oe ef 2 wy -a3 &mY >0 i)x »<oP QPSeaOdPootasP.re SP Pa et sf *By ae eeCSPFESHerPSKKLKSPPPMPPPPiraaaieroeiOeiaeeaaiia Bau Reterence Case DesebGene:ation,Reterence (ese 4G10 Ganeratior emer Reference Cate .Opl Fare cas?worgp ty Case Diesel Gere:anar aoe Case yca Gerermian eum>Cee cat forecast |Cumulative Present Worth Cost ($000s):|53,291] Figure Error!No text of specified style in document.-4 Subregion BLACK &VEATCH |Summary -Chichagof Island |Cumulative Present Worth Cost ($000s)-Including DSM:|46,568] 3209 +3820 Pare) 152)WHoes1299 Summary of Results Space HeatingElectricLoadForecast - i !Juneau Area Juneau Area : i 1,000,000 pes me re ermine rete oer a na canes ee nena ae -o 12990999 ------we ee wees ce ne oi en ee we ey; i ; ,|199999 : 990,099 +---we a ee nn ete ee |:: ion:10999900 b=eee woe ee weeSubregion:Juneau Area g0.909 2 =Ce ee Te ween = :*89999 falas Cook 790,099 +- Aqaes Crook '6999909 : 4 699.999 ¢= :=:69909 = «=:2 &[)Gerotwy F3 599,999 +-g 6999999 +-a = ate Anotinan o z ZGensCreek "_.-----Loe .oo.;a 'i 490,000 --!':39999 :4999999 *--"4 399,009 + Juneau 290.990 -*39999 :2909009 -Greens Creek 190.990:ee See wae 0 eet ssiia a en a neee nor ery a rr we ee epee doONerTCtyayrsooNeAOo&yb ©nm 0 nb oD cb ah nb GH OD a Db OW Fw So OPLLPKKKKKKKPPPLLLLLSSILLPLSSSFPPPPKSKKKLKSKSKSSILLSLLLSK momejuresy area ewe JuneauArea -High mm iIunear Area OSM mn Exisarg Oll-Space deating =Displaced Oil -Space "esting Cumulative Present Worth Cost ($000s)-Oil Only:2,120,883 Summary of Results Cumulative Present Worth Cost ($000s)-Biomass &Oil:1,143,380 Electric Utility Expansion Plan Electric Utility Expansion Plan ..Expansion Plan Alternatives:Juneau Area -Reference Case Juneau Area-Low Case cobenguatagnatnatene tae sa ee ee THD AAD 7a AND tac go pad agg - LC)RIO9G)+ gwegon 495.990 i i : anal unas | »- ! C4 patam ih):.we wo..wo .Lo _ PRE O00 wpa + >ween et ;Ce ;Lo.alo.Lo,ep tata pte pee taal eee RE ; Ae -a fe s a .c :*.+S eg gh PS &#.ao eo --co *-°cal fe 2 rae ce oad cia ca =e ro ---a =s s s a ra a #a ce cae ca -ce ca a - Bes Heleren.e Lene Deel Cereration Beferercg .os8 Wile otcetamer GeesLeeleer en ast Meee ca Case Steveluereate Lou Lese 4 cru Gerecetur mamma Lad Puree at {Cumulative Present Worth Cost ($000s):|234,265}|Cumulative Present Worth Cost ($000s)-Including DSM:|185,556] Figure Error!No text of specified style in document.-5 Subregion BLACK &VEATCH |Summary Juneau Area Summary of Results Northern Region 20,990 3 --- Subregion:Northern Region Youn ° Fails Creek Cua stavisd Yakutat Gustavus 6.999 4.999 + 2.999 + Ha)4 we . 7 >&%2SSSLSS Northern Region Electric Utility Expansion Plan Northern Region Reference Case Taco aeco0 - i4.G50 32 080 10 wu E = BoYO F Cn dude re ae { t gop eo Sec aeeccene + ae rr ae ee er Pe FF SS es stp?sp Ft ph Ft gh gt gh og?os?oh wow Cplergece Ces Creselcere:etior Sefererce iase tte Gereration mee Cefererce Case ces Porecsat |Cumulative Present Worth Cost ($000s):|63,256] Figure Error!No text of specified style in document.-6 Subregion Summary -Northern BLACK &VEATCH | ap oo 3©o> emo Nertherr Region -sigh ie add ba nas Alaa | 6 Fk 492) Es) nore vote cyte rts oS- oper cn swears >6 >Oo OW oD &&: er PP he Ph a a?FPL LL HT HH LH { a=Northern Region -O51 Space Heating .Northern Region SII - 4929 32209 ron BoD 459995 > oo - ' H § go?i a8 z ssys05 1s95 sted hoo 42909 a.an :-: a'>be e 0 4%»©'J &ay J e +S)..J \J £RY -*6 .&"_YY "S .Y y »w)Re \a oo $o oo y 7LKLMLKKKKKLLPMKKKKKSKKPOGLS Fs ot eat er Se a Sere a Le Cumulative Present Worth Cost ($000s)-Oil Only: Cumulative Present Worth Cost ($000s)-Biomass &Oil: 147,786 69,863 Electric Utility Expansion Plan Northern Region -Low Case Pe2"s Pe 0"Cae 4.cic Gererastior eeoo Pom POSeeSFosoeprop ares coeel ase Depelierersuer >»0ee9 op 2 ro re -ra Se ae Cee Sore Bae |Cumulative Present Worth Cost ($000s)-Including OSM:|55,825| Summary of Results Electric Load Forecast Space Heating Prince of Wales come Enatrg Ci Suma meaty ab PeFf a Dice Cul Soae eatirg e'<7 al s £s a -< Cumulative Present Worth Cost ($000s)-Oil Only: Cumulative Present Worth Cost ($000s)-Biomass &Oil: 366,725 186,689 48999 *yaa00 42359 £593 Peotsons)es] Ae Expansion Plan Alternatives: - . .. . ° iSubregion:Prince of Wales Prince of Wales |wee 89.000 po Soir ms eee no wo tee eee in aad Las0979 a *i } Coins sia ' 1 70,909 +;se0060 q oe 69.090 +----- :MECISS Pomme "* twseeein ;pete - coe Were 59.990 / Padweettowzg 49.999teens : Naukati 30.000 eoclodWhalePass ; : 20.990 a =7 Coffman Cove scogag Klawock 30.909 dw Se -a Thorne Bay ° IHollis°+.'»o >o >oo -4 >o o °o >o o.a -°.o :? sy ov "»vv +<b o>\s Ss"os Crai FPP KKK KKK PPK PLPC KKK LSC SLL LS 'et oh th oF otralgtvvyrFf"v Hydaburg Prince of Wales Total -igh wwe Prince of Vales Tota!-Prince of Wales Toral -D544 , Kasaan Electric Utility Expansion Plan Electric Utility Expansion Plan Prince of Wales -Reference Case Prince of Wales -Low Case 0 M0 €o.990 BO 850 5a a9 43090 -ao>93 -_a ..eee -£aaoon °E 359933 : 23030 -29933 ° i935 1352 ¢ °i,ee ec eT oo a Ce wo at ...por Be ee ge -Peers ce ees iy »Ra J &La VJ nsoeos?sP sh igh gh gt ge rom ead ss e se a ,ral e ;Ral ee ra s ae ;od "e we s s ad s oe od re ,s od ss s roa s"oe al a 2 at at s ae rie Deterrence Core Dresel Gerereien Reference:ase tore Generator ommme Feterarce Cans cast Parecast {Cumulative Present Worth Cost ($000s):|24,094] Figure Error!No text of specified style in document.-7 Subregion Summary -Prince of Wales BLACK &VEATCH | Be Bis Care CrerelGermratce o1.Case M06 Geraratian amma oo.Cate .cer "recat [Cumulative Present Worth Cost ($000s)-Including DSM:_|20,781] ct8 a a)PS Summary of Results Electric Load Forecast Space Heating Upper Lynn Canal Upper Lynn Canal 89,099 |---wots oe ee -7s 1690990 ' ;79.999 1499999 + Subregion:Upper Lynn Canal 60.990 +.:1209003 }-- | | i t Com Late 50.999 1999993 =fem Se cee eee me --+g000WoeftouwyL.'i ry é=Kneweres Dewey La tes 40,099 2 90009 +-ee ee |4 e es bead Ee é 2 00000 |6099 rHlate$g wMe 30.099 609099 4-.--we a ee +}:taines 1 t : :i 4999 !i :QDDDD fmmee i ce ee ice 2 een ee time neces |490000 | -/----ee ee dt ; ;i Chilkat Valley ionBO.DOD fmm rr es enna te ee Se Tio mnie eeeemenemanninansnes ae uit gem ar nme aiae ae 200000 ee ee 'Klukwan || Haines Oe oy perp eae eee pg pons geen see ere |pepe wpcaceemy qepensies ten ep yen peppy wepeeyceptay in epeepepepe geen bg "v >©DS DD AY nD -)b AN}vy >CJ K)S 9 fo 4 Ss Vv >%&»S +,Ska gway !A a =2”Ss "<s”-Rg RG "”RS S <og Xe RS >7 Ry ace ay f oe oe s oe &Ry s s id s Ree Rod od rRge Ra 2 al al Rl oe oe s reey comme UEDer Lynn Canal ome Upper Lynn Cansl-High om--=Upper Lynn Canal -OSM -- Existing Oil -Space Heating --- Displaced Oil-Space Heating } Cumulative Present Worth Cost ($000s)-Oil Only:347,271 Cumulative Present Worth Cost ($000s)-Blomass &Oil:174,480 Electric Utility Expansion Plan Electric Utility Expansion Plan Upper Lynn Canal -Reference Case Upper Lynn Canal -Low Case Expansion Plan Alternatives: Gl GAL 60039 : : af WO Sona fogs 4590 20 CHLELELE RPebs "ie Peay Biomass Sy «-g sb 295 -i seogg a sean -.7999 + U eae +a ..cee ve -BO ONR bere o...:en z .cee Coe,'a fee fee gen einige Ne ee ee ab a nS Ces >*»he om DO Jo uy ye x 4h 4M D>Ss sg?s?SF op oe,&a s gs ps pe sy s o 3 a Se wr st S*.so ve pt sh os ro e.e e a aa Ra Ss go?is p moo Mefererce (ase Sere]Gere:etion Oglererce (ase tote Gere ation Mmmebiielererce Lase 228d bate cast we wong ge Det orreretior aCv GOS Ore Eg stipe ee ae 2a forecast |Cumulative Present Worth Cost ($000s):|44,538][Cumulative Present Worth Cost ($000s)-Including DSM:|27,678] Figure Error!No text of specified style in document.-8 Subregion Summary -Upper Lynn Canal BLACK &VEATCH | HIGH COST UTILITIES SIMPLIFIED COST -BENEFIT TESTS'!'' gele t J9Z99sj - SUI-4JEM JO} SUIEIINI dIS '''i sele ' Suluoissiwwo0} uoNesaglyay C: Fwe"duinidG4A } pb'ues G4A |ge fe U0N291409 Bu/Zsey>uesasi4yay (i sele WI!4 MOpULA |8@]@ dwe}Z138OH8L ;\('ao] @'dwe]yUyBL a¢]© due]€UpSL i pele die}y4pBLBLdH OF 3y0.RaI dwe] 748 OHZTL i gele due] Z4y81idH O}34Os381 dwe]TYs OHZTL 1Ho} e SLdH0}ZTL'dwe|yUpSldH Hi:i ao] @' B1dH OFZTL'dwe|€Yr8idH m<] @ ZTL Sursejdai OHSL dweypy (og e ZTLSulsejdas Gy dwe7¢ : gele sdwe] 81REM MO} ee ee monsJepunsisuasauedn220 [3 ; &,@; ® ; jojuo} Bunya equa | |i+@) ia i /_$}04jU09 Josuas yysI}Aeq ] | pele ul Ma19$149 | sole aanyxl4 149 [t iiia@ :"GIHMOOOT aoe]daa Simxy a1Gnog gLZEITg Ue2Sa20N|4 AegYIIH| 'om fe { GIH MOOr Bulsejday 81Z7£419 Juaasason|y AegYsIH a= ( pele GIH MOOp Buldejda1 OHSL19AegYBIH c= ¥ 'mp le GIH MOOt 3ulse|dey OHSLIp AegUSIH o+ wv 1 ele GIH MOSZ Suse|day OHST¢€AegYBIH =2 rs) ii'i aeole H 11304984 GIH MOO01 MOSZ aAOgeqUawWaredal GIHsOUAIXI «gf& 6. »pb saadeids asuly aid o™ = Li : md OTdH sduing } £ | mele | GTdH sdwing aLi' bien t $41OOOT UeYyasoSaUIY>eW 221YVLS ADUINA } °Ci ia6 S41O0OT94005SeUIYIEW29)YWIS ADUINA } [ aor| "SG] 00SURY)Ss9j SAUIYSEW 99] UVIS ADYSN] } % 'om fe EYBy0}0Z S10}es9T14Zdy 400Q PIJOS Je4SWWO} YVLS ADYINS a 'mm fe EYOZ UY SS2]_S4OJeIAB144aY 100Q PI|OS [eI2IAWLUOD YVIS ADYINA o : ge@}e EYBy 03.07 S1azZ9914 400q pIyOs jeII4aWWOD UWS ADYINA so .eo /e EYOZ ueYI ssa] $19Z9914 JO0Q PIJOS JelINIaWWOD YVIS ADYINA Lr '1'1 pele ' Jasuapuo) uonesasiyoy 2U9I9149 & ne le 43|]023U0D YUaWdINby Buipua, a Iwet1 1 "Buidwind ss850Ig OzdHGaN } an a res oe Suyduang saI04gOLJHIA } B 'i1;®»pp { Sulduund $$8201d STdHGIA 2 ( pele (AjUO WyORaY) Sainyx14 21U0.993I9 SUBIS 3x9037 © | mele dH0203'Z SIC\OW 3 (om fe dHOOT3Z SILO ® i©@|@ dH§0}T SIOJOW & fie @| ; wl ; | Ha@W0s03OTJoie9HaaIeM dH } £ H we le suoijeys Juawindog ssosuas Aduedn390 peo3nd e Li: !¢@| Ued€ 19400) WAIS YVIS ADUINI ] ° nele yoeq}as ayesapow - 7e}sOWJay}xIEqQ1aS ns] o@| QT u33S-dHSV ' ':: 4 @: uone|nsu] jooy gle e aseq a8eye3] 07 suryjeasjong alee | suey Buyjiap | mele spina, sqing 149 i wele apising - Jejna, sqing 149 :#o]@ 34317 348IN O37 1 i'!' sele i sdwe s00]4 a1a!ydJOL 2 ( pele saungxyy 749 & cm doef 534317 AepiioH rr i mele desm adid 4 ';';se le \ Speaysamoys Moly MOT (1j fe@ Sia}edH Jae dung Way } (o» Suj2AI91 Joyesasyay »t Buy dAdad 4azaau4 '''' nele t Ja_RNO Bnddigs yews ' H'!as le ' paads aj8uis s0,0W-W pue dwing sel e apisAqapis-weys ABsaug $19Z9914-SsOJeIaTIIay nelle Jazaasy dol-1e\$ ASuaug siazaai4-siojeradiyay i mole s1aAJg $2430] \'''aon)t 1929934 SByD-10YS ABI3UZ $J9Z90I4 ° ° ° ° ro) oO ° °o rs) ro) ro) ro) oO ro) ° 22o22. o2. Figure Error!No text of specified style in document.-1 DSM/EE Cost-Effectiveness Screening Results -High Cost Utilities BLACK &VEATCH | MID COST UTILITIES SIMPLIFIED COST -BENEFIT TESTS nt Test=Part¢Total Resource Test ¢Rate Impact Testicipa J9Z99Af - SUI-}[EM JO} SUIELIND d}49S SuUOISsIWWOD UONeIaSIyay CIL----- dwind 4A aw th--pe---- ath apo-sa--+ uej4A ant aan4 ¥0}2a1103 BujBieys uesay ere wee te ww ee ee ee ee ew ee mee ee ee nee ee © Uj! 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Juneau Home Budget 2016 Full Implementation 2011 Base Case 2016 No Implementation input input Location:Juneau L Juneau ai Swe:1600 sq feet ding Size:1600 sq feetSpaceingType:Bi Pellets Mote:MSpace Heating Tree Space Type:Heating Fuel #1.Note:[fSpece Heating Wwe bs hrgput Space Heating Cost:$310.00 perTON SS yennanaeayeer Space Heating Cost:$3.69 per gallon June auResidentialElectricityRate:9.11 per kwh Residential Bectricty Rate:$0.11 per kwh bell 1600 sy Feet,PCE Bligible NO PCE Eligible NO Space Heating Type:|__HeatingFuel#i_|Oavcy gpectunestoaentdPCERate$0.00 per kWh Space Heating Cast:$5.13 Per att sel ecient abe car ichy Re . PCr Rate $0.00 per kwh Residential Electricity Rate:$0.11 per kthPrice:$3.43 per gallon Gasoline Price:$3.43 pergalion PCE tiigible NO PCE Rate $0.07 pes kathPrice:$3.43 per gallonOutput: Annual Costs __Monthty Costs Output Annual Costs _Monthly Costs Electricity Costs {|8 |$83 Flectricity Coste ]$1,067 |i cumpe hmeee!Conte cous Bectricity Costs |$1,067 i $29HeatingCosts4$1,553 |$129 Heating Costs |$2694 |$025 Heating Costs |$3,746 |$342 Transportation Costs |$3311 $276 |Transportation Costs |$3,311 |$276 Transportation Costs |$330 5276 TOTAL |$5,858 sae TOTAL $7,073 |$589 TOTAL |$3,126 $677 ©Electricity @ Space Heating «8 Transportation 2 Bececity w Space Heating =Transporation 27.9%realized savings over 14.9%increase from 2011 "No Implementation” Angoon Home Budget 2016 Full Implementation 2011 Base Case input Input Location:Angoon Angoon siding Size:1200 sq feet Iding Size:1200 sq feetSpaveHeatingType:Biomass,Pellets Harte Space Hea ting Pype ts Spane Heating Type:Heating Fuel #1 ote:IfSpece Heatinghee Space Heating Cost:$350.00 per TON equal Res ideutiad Electricity Rate Space Heating Cost:$4.60 per gallon Residential Bectricity Rate:.61 perkWh Residential Hectridty Rate:90.61 per kWh PCE Hiigible YES PCE Higible YES PCE Rate $0,414 perkWh PCE Rate $0.41 per kWh Gasoline Price:$4.53 per gallon fine Price:$4.53 per gallon Output Annual Costs Monthly Costs Output Annual Costs Monthly Costs Bectridty Costs |$1,267 $106 Electricity Costs.|$1,370 $114 Heating Costs j $2,192 |$183 Heating Costs |$4198 $350 "Transportation Costs |$3,499 |$2792 Transportation Costs |$3,499 $292 TOTAL |$6,958 |$580 TOTAL |$9,067 $756 50% "i, os SElectrichy ®Sper Heating 98 ©Transportation 30.3%realized savings over "No Implementation” =Gecwicity ©Space Heating =Tanspartaton 2016 No Implementation Input cats AngoonBuildingSize:1200 sq feetSpaceHeatingType:He ating Fuel #1 'one iSymceftentingTypeisSpaceHeatingCost:$5.0 per gallon pena anhinonidcaccionaeldentialElRate:9.61 per kwh ied PCE Eligible YES PCE Rate 9.41 per hh Price:A per gallon (Qutout Anwvanl Costs tly Costs Electricity Costs $1,370 $214 Heating Costs Transportation Costs eeeeeaE&anTOTAL sElbxbitty =Spece testing ©Transportation 10.1%increase from 2011 POW Island (Craig)Home Budget 2016 Full Implementation Input Location:|Prince of Wales (Craig) ilding Size:1200 sq feet Space Type:Pellets Mote-tfSpaceHeetiogTypets shouldSpaceCost:$350.00 per TON -.handHehehe dential E Rate:$0.22 per kwh PCE Bigible YES PCE Rate $0.07 per kwh Price:$3.64 pergalton Output Anmual Costs Monthty Costs Electricity Costs $759 $63 $2,192 $183 Transportation Costs TOTAL | Heating Costs } __] | ®Hlectrictty ©Space Heating =©Transportation 34.4%realized savings over "No Implementation” 2011 Base Case 2016 No Implementation input l Prince of Wales (Craig) kding Size:1200 sq feet Space Heating Type:Heating Fuel #4 ote:if Space Heating re bsSpaceHeatingCost:$3.59 per gation Residential Hlectridty Rate:$0.22 perkWwh PCE Higible YES PCE Rate $0.07 perkwh line Price:$3.64 per gallon Output Annual Costs Monthly Costs Electricity Costs |$970 |$81 Heating Costs |$3277 |$273 E Transportation Costs |$2,811 |$234 TOTAL |$7,057 |$588 =|Blecwicity =Spac Heating =®Transportation Input Prince of Wales (Craig)bil gs Ste:2200 sq fectSpaceHeatingType:Heating Fuel #1 Typetsat$5.48 per galton Searicky,Speceties ag Costs hows d iene:$0.22 perkwh PCE Eligible YES PCE Rate $0.07 per kWh line Price:$3.64 per gaiton Output Annual Costs Costs Electricity Costs |$970 $81 Heating Costs ]$5,002 |$417 Transportation Costs |$2,811 |$234 TOTAL $8,782 |$732 =Elextricty '@ Spece Heating 8 Treanspotation 24.5%increase from 2011 YEARLY UTILITY EXPENDITURES AS A %OF HOUSEHOLD INCOME (BY COMMUNITY) Prince of Wales Island {Craig}(5)\(%of income)Angoon (5)_|(%6 of income}Juneau (5)_{(%6 of income} Yearly Household Income:}$28,479 Yearly Household Income:|$28,479 Yearly Household Income:!$48,062 Yearly Utility Costs 20t1:]$7,057 |24.8%Yearly Utility Costs 2011:)$9,067 |31.8%Yearly Utility Costs 2011:1 $7,073 |14.7% Yearly Utility Costs 2016 (noimplementation):!$8,782 |30.8%Yearly Utility Costs 2016 (noimplementation):!$9,980 }35.0%Yearly Utility Costs 2016 (noimplementation):!$8124 |16.9% Yearly Utility Costs 2016 (full implementation):|$5,762 |20.2%Yearly Utility Costs 2016 (fullimplementation):}$6958 }24.4%||Yearly Utility Costs 2016 {full implementation):}$5,858 |12.2% Month OONDUAWNEDa7yeOo12 Month COONDUEWHEReRO12 KPU KPU SEAPA SEAPA 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 New Hydro Project 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.9 0.7 1 0.7 1.1 0.8 1.1 0.8 11 0.7 1 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.5 New Hydro Project 0.3 0.05 0.55 0.4 0.05 0.75 04 0.05 0.75 0.6 0.05 0.95 0.7 0.05 1.05 0.7 0.05 1.15 0.8 0.1 1.2 0.8 0.2 1.3 0.7 0.2 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.9 0.5 0.05 0.75 0.3 0.05 0.55 Diesel 0.2 0.3 0.5 2.2 Diese! 0.45 0.25 0.25 0.05 Spill Energy 0.3 Spill Energy aa100% 7 ": 90%4 enemy ' 80%4 70%4 BSeriesS60%4 w Series4 50%+ w Series3 40%4 _@ Series2 30%$a -_-na?4 @ Series1 20%+et 10%+ 0%t t "r 7 u ''. 1 2 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 141 12 a a nin jn -7 :hagdro>é 490%4 Ae c 'é me80%4 _wf oN70%foo yp See m SeriesS og "60%4 ;\®Series4S0%+ B Series3 40%- B Series2 30%+an igSeries1 20%+.a 10%+ 0%f f uy *y y y i 1 2 4 S$6 7 8 9§10 11 12 SEAPA Baranof Island Juneau Rural Areas Admiralty Island Chichagof Island Northern Prince of Wales Upper Lynn Canal Kake Petersburg Wrangell Ketchikan/Saxman Metlakatla Sub-region Total Sitka Sub-region Total Juneau Sub-region Tota! Angoon Sub-region Total Elfin Cove Hoonah Pelican Tenakee Springs Sub-region Total Yakutat Gustavus Sub-region Total Naukati Bay Whale Pass Coffman Cove Klawock Thorne Bay Hollis Craig Hydaburg Kasaan Edna Bay Sub-region Total Chilkat Valley/Klukwan Haines Skagway Sub-region Total Southeast Total 557 2,369 2,390 8,461 1,405 15,182 8,881 8,881 31,275 31,275 459 459 20 760 88 131 999 662 442 1,104 113 31 176 755 471 112 1,201 376 49 42 3,326 95 2,520 920 3,535 64,761 Agenda e Key Findings e Project Overview e Conclusions e Recommendations KEY FINDINGS 20 Key Findings e Historical Crossroad ¢Subregional Differences Require Solutions for Each Subregion e External Energy Drivers e Inflexible Business Structure e Shortage of Storage Hydro - e Space Heating Conversions e Lack of Information on Potential Hydro Projects ¢Need for Balanced Portfolio of Resources Key Findings (continued) ¢Phased Approach to the Future ¢Economic Realities of SE Intertie Concept e AK-BC Intertie ¢Role of Technology Innovation ¢Aggressive Pursuit of DSM/EE and Biomass Conversion Programs ¢Load Uncertainties due to Economic Development Efforts and Potential Mines ¢Need for Continued State Financial Assistance and Proposed AEA Decision Framework and Policy e Encourage Private Development of Resources Efe] PROJECT OVERVIEW (2)[e] SE Alaska Subregions Transmission Planning Regions Sarthara hagiod WieeanuAssalaeaheamesiel q Yekutat inesu es Oougias Fneraemmmeert Auke Bay Gustaws Greens Cex fF Ein Cove GIGIi{iiCommitted Resources REMAININGCAPITALCOST|CAPITAL COST($MILLION)@ |($MILLION) Blue Lake Expansion Hydro Expansion will increase the capacity of the existing Blue Lake Hydro $96.5 $47.5 (Sitka,City of Sitka Electric)Project by an estimated 8 MW and increase the average annual energy from the project by approximately 34,500 MWh. Gartina Falls Hydro New run-of-river project near Hoonah that will provide an estimated $6.3 $5.5 (Hoonah,!PEC)0.44 MW of capacity and approximately 1,800 MWh of average annual energy. Reynolds Creek Hydro New storage project located that will provide an estimated 5 MW of $28.6 $8.1 (Hydaberg,Haida Energy and capacity and approximately 19,300 MWh of average annual energy. AP&T) Thayer Creek Hydro New run-of-river project that will provide an estimated 1 MWof capacity $15.2 $13.0 (Angoon,Kootznoowoo,Inc.)and approximately 8,400 MWh of average annual energy. Whitman Lake Hydro New storage projectat an existing lake located that will provide an $25.8 $13.4 (Ketchikan,KPU)estimated 4.6 MW of capacity and approximately 15,900 MWh of average annual energy. Kake -Petersburg Intertie New 69 kV overhead and submarine cable tr:ission line connecting $53.8 $48.3 (Kwaan Electric Transmission |Kake and Petersburg. Intertie Cooperative) Ketchikan -Metlakatla Intertie ©New 34.5 kV overhead and submarine cable tr ission line connecting $12.7 $8.2 (Metlakatla IndianCommunity)Ketchikan and Metlakatla.: Totals $238.9 $144.0 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS Conclusions -General e Shortage of hydro storage capacity e "Achilles heel”-electric space heating conversions ¢Significant uncertainties exist:loads,resources,potential transmission additions,and level of State financial assistance e Uncertainties lead to the need to: e Develop multiple options ¢Move towards a more balanced resource portfolio ¢Maintain flexibility ¢Limitations due to quality and inclusiveness of project-specific information ¢Need to base analysis on generic hydro projects e Inability to make definitive selection eo(2 Conclusions -Analysis and Results ¢2 integrated cases: ¢Optimal Hydro/Transmission Case ¢Optimal DSM/EE,Biomass,Other Renewables Case ¢Comparative results led to near-term resource selection ¢Committed Resources °DSM/EE ¢Biomass conversions ¢Project feasibility studies to identify next increment of hydro (AEA developed process and standards,link with REGF) Conclusions -Analysis and Results (continued) ¢Insufficient loads to justify expansion of transmission network e AK-BC Intertie is not economically viable under current conditions ¢Aggressive pursuit of DSM/EE delays need for incremental hydro ¢Aggressive pursuit of biomass conversion will result in very significant space heating savings elle] Conclusions -Moving Forward ¢Two Phases Pres:ppm Past crm |(2012-2016)(2017 AND BEYOND) Committed Resources Vv DSM/EE Programs Vv Vv Biomass Conversion Programs Vv v Next Increment of Hydro and Other Vv Renewable Projects (28) Conclusions -Moving Forward (continued) e Preferred Resource Lists developed on Subregional basis, including Committed Resources e Pursue policies to reduce electric space heating conversions ¢Potential impacts of mines e Need for State financial assistance e Update IRP in 3 to 5 years Recommendations -Capital Projects ¢Subregional Preferred Resource Lists -Phase 1 ESTIMATED caprTaLy PROJECTED COMMERCIALSUBREGIONRESOURCECOSTS($'000,000)OPERATION DATE (COD): SEAPA Kake-Petersburg Interconnection 48.6 2015 Ketchikan-Metlakatla Inter ction 8.20)2013 Whitman Lake Hydro 13,40)2014 Diesel 511 2012-2016 DSM/EE 3.1 2012-2016 Biomass 139.4 2012-2016 Admiralty Island Thayer Creek Project 13.00)2016 DSM/EE 0.0 2012-2016 Biomass 0.8 2012-2016 Baranof Island Blue Lake Hydro 47.8 2015 Diesel 20.2 2012-2016 DSM/EE 0.9 2012-2016 Biomass 14.1 2012-2016 Chichagof Island Gartina Fails Hydro 55 2015 Diesel 0.3 2012-2016 DSM/EE 0.0 2012-2016 Biomass 19 2012-2016 Juneau Diesel 20.2 2012-2016 DSM/EE 3.6 2012-2016 Biomass 63.3 2012-2016 Northern Diesel 28 2012-2016 DSM/EE 0.0 2012-2016 Biomass 41 2012-2016 Prince of Wales Reynolds Creek Hydro 5.54 2014 DSM/EE 0.00 2012-2016 Biomass 8.9 2012-2016 Recommendations -Capital Projects ¢Subregional Preferred Resource Lists -Phase 2 ESTIMATED ae od PROJECTED COMM eectSUBREGIONRESOURCECOSTS($000,000)OPERATION DATE (COD) SEAPA Hydro -Storage (10 MW)193.1 2044 Diesel 202.8 2017-2061 DSM/EE 102.1 2017-2061 Biomass 166.0 2017-2021 Admiralty Island Diesel 17 2017-2061 DSM/EE O41 2017-2061 Biomass 0.7 2017-2021 Baranof Island Diesel 83.4 2017-2061 DSM/EE 314 2017-2061 Blomass 16.1 2017-2021 Chichagof Hydro -Run of River (1 MW)21.7 2035 Diese}6.4 2017-2061 DSM/EE 0.8 2017-2061 Biomass 16 2017-2021 Juneau Hydro -Storage (10 MW)237.5 2051 Diesel 216.6 2017-2061 DSM/EE 124.8 2017-2061 Biomass 79.8 2017-2021 Northern Hydro -Storage (1 MW)18.6 2017 Hydro -Run of River (1 MW)32.8 2049 Diesel 23.3 2017-2061 DSM/EE 13 2017-2061 Biomass 4.7 2017-2021 Prince of Wales Diesel 16.6 2017-2061 DSM/EE 66.4 2017-2061 Biomass 10.2 2017-2021 Capital Investment by Category Capital Investment by Category 2012 -2014 BCommitted Resources Diesel Replacement @ DSM/EE B Biomass Capital investment by Category 2012 -2061 Committed Resources MAdditional Hydro 'WDlesei Replacement MOSM/EE MBiomass Total Capital Investments 2012 -2014 -$346 million 2012 -2061 -$2.15 billion Subregional Equity Considerations Capital Investment by Subregion -2012 -2014 68.59 127 733 WESEAPA @ Baranof Island @Juneau m Admiralty Island M@Chichagof Island BNorthern @ Prince ofWales @ Upper Lynn Canal Capital Investment per Capita Capital Investment by Subregion -2012 -2061 101.687.6 43.8 @ SEAPA @ Baranof island Bhineau @ Admiralty Island @ Chichagof Island @ Northern @ Prince of Wales mw Upper Lynn Canal 2012-2014 2012-2061 Urban Areas SEAPA $12,495 $61,086 Baranof Island $6,313 $21,796 Juneau $1,824 $23,830 Urban Area Average $5,472 $33,725 Rural Areas Admiralty Island $29,417 $35,336 Chichagof Island $6,854 $38,216 Northern $4,670 $79,314 Prince of Wales $3,820 $13,180 Upper Lynn Canal $1,507 $28,732 Rural Area Average $4,620 $30,496 Regional Average $5,348 $33,255 Subregional Equity Considerations OPTIMAL DSM/EE,BIOMASS AND OTHER RENEWABLES CASE -SAVINGS RELATIVE TO STATUS QUO CASE Total Cumulative Net Present Value (CNPV)Savings -2012 -2061 ($000) Oil Space Heating Plus Blomass Utility System Plus DSM Costs(1)Costs Total $%$%$% SEAPA 221,430 49%418,993 43%640,423 45% Admiralty Island {22)0%9,592 43%9,570 32% Baranof Island L671 2%216,746 47%218,417 39% Chichagof Island 13,218 22%29,950 51%43,168 37% Juneau 185,117 S0%977,503 46%1,162,620 47% Northern 33,670 38%77,923 53%111,593 47% Prince of Whales 3,313 14%180,036 49%183,349 47% Upper Lynn Canal 18,925 41%172,791 50%191,716 49% Total Southeast Region 477,322 41%2,083,534 46%2,560,856 45% QiIncludes savings from generic hydro projects. Recommendations -Other ¢Public outreach program e Legislative decisions regarding level and form of financial assistance ¢AEA decision framework and policy e Appropriate funds for regional DSM/EE program ¢Appropriate funds for regional biomass conversion program e Evaluate regional entity to implement DSM/EE and biomass conversion program ¢Appropriate funds for hydro/other renewables reconnaissance studies and FERC license applications ele] Recommendations -Other ¢Technical/market potential study of non-hydro renewables ¢Support further development of tidal and wave power ¢Develop standard power sales agreement ¢Consider transmission open access policy ¢Update IRP in 2014-2015 e Evaluate rate structure changes ¢Develop weather normalized load forecasts ¢Streamline regulatory and permitting processes Elle] Regional Supporting Studies and Other Actions DESCRIPTION ixmn_|ESTIMATED cost General Public Outreach/Education Program 2012 $250,000 Regional DSM/EE Program Start-up Costs 2012-2013 $2,325,000 Regional Biomass Conversion Program Start-up Costs 2012-2013 $2,225,000 Formation of Regional DSM/EE Entity Start-up Costs 2012 $500,000 Formation of Regional Biomass Conversion Entity Start-up 2012 $500,000 Costs Hydro Project-specific High Level Reconnaissance Studies 2012-2013 $2,000,000 Hydro Project-specific FERC License Application 2012-2014 $10,000,000 Preparation Regional Technical/Ec ic Market Potential 2012 $500,000 Assessment of Non-Hydro Renewable Technologies Other Renewable Project-specific High Level 2012-2014 $1,000,000 Reconnaissance Studies Support Tidal /Wave Technology Development 2012-2014 $1,000,000 Develop Standard Power Sales Agreement 2012 $200,000 Consider Development of Open Access Policy and Related 2012 $250,000 Tariff (including terms and conditions of service) Update Southeast Alaska IRP in 2014 2014 $750,000 Support Development of Tariff Structures That Better 2012-2013 $1,550,000 Reflect Costs Support Development of Weather Normalized Load 2013 $375,000 Forecasts Total $23,425,000 FB,|i wiking a world Ochiz