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Home My WebLink AboutDollars and Sense of Wind-Energy Larry-Flowers NREL 2004The $$ and Sense of The $$ and Sense of Wind EnergyWind EnergyLarry FlowersTeam Leader, National Wind Technology CenterWEATS Anchorage, AK Wind energy is economically competitiveWind energy is economically competitive Increased Turbine Size - R&D Advances - Manufacturing Improvements01000200030004000500060001980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 20040102030405060708090100Capacity (MW)Cost of Energy (cents/kWh*)Cost of Energy and Cumulative Domestic Capacity*Year 2000 dollarsCapacity & Cost TrendsCapacity & Cost Trends Wind Cost of EnergyWind Cost of Energy0246810121990COE (¢/kWh [constant 2000 $])Low wind speed sites199520002005201020152020High windspeed sitesBulk Power Competitive Price Band Municipal Wind Power PioneersMunicipal Wind Power PioneersAustin Energy“We at Austin Energy found that large wind energy projects are the least expensive new electric generation source. Not only is the price lower than other renewable sources, it's even lower than the fuel cost of our natural-gas-fired units. -Mark Kapner, manager, Conservation and Renewable Energy, Austin Energy Wind energy boosts economic developmentWind energy boosts economic development Economic Development ImpactsEconomic Development Impacts•Land Lease Payments: 2-3% of gross revenue $2500-4000/MW/year•Local property taxrevenue: ranges widely -$300K-1700K/yr per 100MW • 100-200 jobs/100MW during construction• 10-30 permanent O&M jobsper 50-100 MW• Local construction and service industry: concrete, towers usually done locally Texas Wind Spurs New JobsTexas Wind Spurs New JobsSource: Virtus Energy Research Associates, 2002.Source: Virtus, 2003• Texas developed 913 MW of wind and employed more than 2,500 people in the wind industry in 2001 Comparative Economic Development ImpactsComparative Economic Development ImpactsDirect benefits to the Coloradoeconomy from new power generation (over 20 years)$-$50,000,000$100,000,000$150,000,000$200,000,000$250,000,000$300,000,000$350,000,000Coal Gas WindTaxesLandowner revFuelO&M Construction Case Study: Hyde County, South DakotaCase Study: Hyde County, South Dakota• 40 MW wind project in South Dakota creates $400,000 - $450,000/yr for Hyde County, including:• More than $100,000/yr in annual lease payments to farmers ($3,000 - $4,000/turbine/yr) • $250,000/yr in property taxes (25% of Highmore’s education budget)• 75 -100 construction jobs for 6 months• 5 permanent O&M jobs• Sales taxes up more than 40%• Doesn’t include multiplier effect “Converting the wind into a much-needed commodity while providing good jobs, the Colorado Green Wind Farm is a boost to our local economy and tax base.”John Stulp, county commissioner, Prowers County, Colorado Wind energy doesnWind energy doesn’’t consume watert consume water Sustainable Withdrawal Of Freshwater Sustainable Withdrawal Of Freshwater Is National IssueIs National IssueSource:EPRI 2003 Energy Requires WaterEnergy Requires WaterGALLONS PER PERSON PER DAY• 510 for food production– includes irrigation and livestock• 465 to produce household electricity– Range: 30 to 600 depending on technology • 100 direct household use– includes bathing, laundry, lawn watering, etc.0100200300400500600Gallons/person/dayFor food(indirect)Forelectricity(indirect)For directuseWater required to produce household electricity exceeds direct household water useSource: from Gleick, P., World's Water 2002-2003, 2002 In 2002, nationwide:• Withdrawals of water at all thermoelectric power plants = 225 billion gallons/day• = 252 million acre-feet• ~ ¾ size of Lake Erie Source: Western Resource AdvocatesThermoelectric Power Plants Thermoelectric Power Plants ––Water UsageWater Usage Load GrowthLoad Growth Wind is a homegrown energy sourceWind is a homegrown energy source “Wind is a homegrown energy that we can harvest right along side our corn or soybeans or other crops. We can use the energy in our local communities or we can export it to other markets. We need to look carefully at wind energy as a source of economic growth for our region”David Benson, Farmer and County Commissioner, Nobles County, Minnesota Wind energy is Wind energy is inexhaustible and infinitely renewableinexhaustible and infinitely renewable U.S. OIL PRODUCTION 1900 TO 20501900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050GONE:65% OF U.S. OIL HAS BEEN USED. IT’S HISTORY.2001DOWN THE OIL “OFF RAMP”PEAK 1970PRUDHOE BAY PRODUCTIONGONELEFT Methane Madness“In 1997, 600 rigs kept production flat.In 2001, 1000 rigs were needed to keep production steady.In 2002, production fell 3%. US producers will find it very difficult to reverse these trends.”Raymond James Wind energy has many environmental Wind energy has many environmental benefitsbenefits Environmental BenefitsEnvironmental Benefits•No SOxor NOx• No particulates• No mercury•No CO2•No water Municipal Wind Power PioneersMunicipal Wind Power PioneersWaverly Light and Power“The development of wind energy by Waverly Light and Power has been an important, environmentally correct step for our community, and continues to provide leadership for expansion of wind energy generation in the Midwest. We strongly believe that public power can play a significant role in the global reduction of greenhouse gasses by expanding and promoting wind energy and using programs like Iowa Energy Tags.”- Glenn Cannon, general manager, Waverly Light and Power Wind reduces risk Wind reduces risk associated with volatile fuel pricesassociated with volatile fuel prices$0.00$2.00$4.00$6.00$8.00$10.00$12.00$14.001992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004($/MMBTU)Hurricane AndrewMarch 1993 BlizzardJanuary 1994 BlizzardMassive Cold Front and Well Freeze OffEarly Winter 1996/97Hurricane DannyTechnical FactorsHurricane GeorgesExcess Storage and Mild WinterSource: NGW and EVA, Inc.Coldest Nov/Dec on Record/S.T. Demand > S.T. SupplyDeclining production for six quartersMild WinterHurricane OpalJanuary 1996 Blizzard U.S. Natural Gas Spot PricesU.S. Natural Gas Spot Prices(Base Case and 95% Confidence Interval*)(Base Case and 95% Confidence Interval*) GAS CONSUMPTION: 1997-201712345678910111997 2002 2007 2012 2017Trillion Cubic Feet/YrELECTRIC GENERATION THE KEY DRIVERINDUSTRIALCOMMERCIAL RESIDENTIALThe The ““Dash to GasDash to Gas”” EPRI CONCLUDES: • Better technology alone is not enough, also need emission limits• Carbon Dioxide Will Get a Value• $3 to $10 per ton, Rising Over Time • $10/MWH for Coal, $6 for GasCarbon RiskCarbon Risk “Wind energy adds diversity to our generation fleet and provides a hedge against fossil fuel price increases. In addition, the development of renewable energy resources is widely supported by the public and our customers.”Rick Walker, director, Renewable Energy Business Development, AEP Energy Services, Inc., Dallas, TX Wind energy can be used for a variety of Wind energy can be used for a variety of applicationsapplications People want renewable energyPeople want renewable energy 050001000015000200002500030000350004000019821983198419851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004Capacity (MW)United StatesEuropeRest of World1. Germany: 16500 MW2. United States: 6800 MW 3. Spain: 6202 MW4. Denmark: 3121 MW5. India: 2800 MWSource: WindPower MonthlyWorld total 2004: 46048 MWTotal Installed Wind CapacityTotal Installed Wind CapacityWorld Growth MarketWorld Growth Market Renewable Electricity StandardsRenewable Electricity Standards18 states + D.C. 9 states outside of restructuring6 states increased standardsWI: 2.2% by 2011IA: 2% by 1999MN: 19% by 2015*NV: 15% by 2013, solar 5% of total annuallyTX: 2.7% by 2009NM: 10% by 2011AZ: 1.1% by 2007, 60% solarCA: 20% by 2017* MN has a minimum requirement for one utility, Xcel EnergyHI: 20% by 2020CO: 10% by 2015ME: 30% by 2000MA: 4% by 2009RI: 16% by 2019CT: 10% by 2010NY: 24% by 2013NJ: 6.5% by 2008PA: 8% by 2020MD: 7.5% by 2019DC: 11% by 2022 “Our customers wanted this wind program and it was our job to deliver it. It has turned out to be a huge source of community pride. The turbines are a visible landmark showing the Moorhead Community’s commitment to a better world for our children.”Christopher Reed, Moorhead Public Service, Moorhead, Minnesota “In my 44 years in the municipal utility business, no utility project has ever generated more customer support and interest than our wind turbine project.”Nick Scholer, former manager of Algona Municipal Utilities, Algona, Iowa Wind energy is the fuel of today and tomorrowWind energy is the fuel of today and tomorrow Source: Nobel laureate, Richard Smalley