HomeMy WebLinkAboutWind Energy Update Larry-Flowers NREL 07-20-2005Larry FlowersNational Renewable Energy LaboratoryAnchorage, AKJuly 20, 2005Wind Energy UpdateWind Energy Update
Sizes and ApplicationsSizes and ApplicationsSmall (≤10 kW)•Homes (Gridconnected)•Farms• Remote Applications(e.g. battery changing, water pumping, telecom sites, icemaking)Intermediate(10-500 kW)• Village Power•Hybrid Systems• Distributed PowerLarge (500 kW – 6 MW)• Central Station Wind Farms• Distributed Power• Offshore Wind Generation Stations
050001000015000200002500030000350004000019821983198419851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004Capacity (MW)United StatesEuropeRest of World1. Germany: 16500 MW2. United States: 6800 MW 3. Spain: 6202 MW4. Denmark: 3121 MW5. India: 2800 MWSource: WindPower MonthlyWorld total 2004: 46048 MWTotal Installed Wind CapacityTotal Installed Wind CapacityWorld Growth MarketWorld Growth Market
Increased Turbine Size - R&D Advances - Manufacturing Improvements01000200030004000500060001980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 20040102030405060708090100Capacity (MW)Cost of Energy (cents/kWh*)Cost of Energy and Cumulative Domestic Capacity*Year 2000 dollarsCapacity & Cost TrendsCapacity & Cost Trends
Drivers for Wind PowerDrivers for Wind Power• Declining Wind Costs• Fuel Price Uncertainty• Federal and State Policies• Economic Development• Green Power• Energy Security
Wind Cost of EnergyWind Cost of Energy0246810121990COE (¢/kWh [constant 2000 $])Low wind speed sites199520002005201020152020High windspeed sitesBulk Power Competitive Price Band
$0.00$2.00$4.00$6.00$8.00$10.00$12.00$14.001992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004($/MMBTU)Hurricane AndrewMarch 1993 BlizzardJanuary 1994 BlizzardMassive Cold Front and Well Freeze OffEarly Winter 1996/97Hurricane DannyTechnical FactorsHurricane GeorgesExcess Storage and Mild WinterSource: NGW and EVA, Inc.Coldest Nov/Dec on Record/S.T. Demand > S.T. SupplyDeclining production for six quartersMild WinterHurricane OpalJanuary 1996 BlizzardHistorical Gas Prices At The Henry HubHistorical Gas Prices At The Henry Hub
GAS CONSUMPTION: 1997-201712345678910111997 2002 2007 2012 2017Trillion Cubic Feet/YrELECTRIC GENERATION THE KEY DRIVERINDUSTRIALCOMMERCIAL RESIDENTIALThe The ““Dash to GasDash to Gas””
Wind Economics Wind Economics --Determining FactorsDetermining Factors• Wind Resource • Financing and Ownership Structure• Taxes and Policy Incentives• Plant Size: equipment, installation and O&M economies of scale• Turbine size, model, and tower height• Green field or site expansion• What is included: land, transmission, ancillary services
Renewable Energy Expected From Renewable Energy Expected From State Standards*State Standards*-4,0008,00012,00016,00020,00024,00028,00032,000200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017Megawatts22,670 MW of New Renewable Energy8,020 MW of Existing Renewable EnergyNevadaTexasIA & WINJ & PACT & RIMAMaineMinnesotaAZ & NMNew York* Projected development assuming states achieve annual RES targets. HawaiiMarylandCaliforniaColorado
State Clean Energy FundsState Clean Energy Funds•14 states, funded through system-benefits charges or other means•More than $4 billion through 2012•CA: >$200 M/yr•OR: ~$10 M/yr•MT: ~$2 M/yr
Common ProgramsCommon Programs• Financial incentives for utility-scale RE projects• Distributed generation buy-down incentives• Distributed generation competitive solicitations• Consumer financing programs• Project and company financing• Support for green power marketers• Consumer education• Small grants for business development, studiesClean Energy Funds are more flexible than an RPS, and allow states to target multiple technologies and programs
Consideration of Carbon Risk in Consideration of Carbon Risk in Western Western IRPsIRPsis Becoming More Commonis Becoming More Common•PacifiCorp:multiple carbon scenarios, with base case of $8 per ton of CO2 beginning in 2009•Idaho Power:multiple carbon scenarios, with base-case of $12.30 per ton of CO2 beginning in 2008•Xcel/PSCo:scenarios of $6 and $12 per ton of CO2 beginning in 2009•PGE:scenario of $10 per ton of CO2•Avista:scenario of $1.32 - $11 per ton of CO2, beginning in 2004•California:CPUC now requires that utilities consider carbon costs at $8 - $25 per ton of CO2Can amount to a ~$5/MWh adder to a gas plant, and more for coal
Key Deployment Issues for Wind PowerKey Deployment Issues for Wind Power• Permitting and Siting (visual, noise, avian, land use)• Transmission: capacity allocation, RTO formation, new line builds/planning• Power Variability: impact on utility operations• Green power markets• Policy environment – PTC, RPS, state tax provisions
“Wind energy adds diversity to our generation fleet and provides a hedge against fossil fuel price increases. In addition, the development of renewable energy resources is widely supported by the public and our customers.”Rick Walker, director, Renewable Energy Business Development, AEP Energy Services, Inc., Dallas, TX
“Our customers wanted this wind program and it was our job to deliver it. It has turned out to be a huge source of community pride. The turbines are a visible landmark showing the Moorhead Community’s commitment to a better world for our children.”Christopher Reed, Moorhead Public Service, Moorhead, Minnesota
“Wind is a homegrown energy that we can harvest right along side our corn or soybeans or other crops. We can use the energy in our local communities or we can export it to other markets. We need to look carefully at wind energy as a source of economic growth for our region”David Benson, Farmer and County Commissioner, Nobles County, Minnesota
“In evaluating the potential of wind energy generation, Native Americans realize that wind power is not only consistent with our cultural values and spiritual beliefs, but can also be a means of achieving Native sustainable homeland economies.”Ronald Neiss, Rosebud Utility Commission President, Rosebud Sioux Reservation, South Dakota
KotzebueKotzebueElectric Association, Electric Association, AlaskaAlaskaBrad Reeve, General Manager, Kotzebue Electric Association“It is becoming clear that wind energy will play a major role in the national generation mix. In Kotzebue, Alaska, wind energy provides between 5%-7% of the total energy needs and we plan to add more. There are potentially 70 to 90 communities that could reduce their energy costs by adding wind energy. This makes it extremely important for utilities to learn all they can about wind’s ability to provide safe, reliable, cost-effective electricity to their members.”
KotzebueKotzebue, Alaska, Alaska• Application: Village power system• 11 MW diesel power plant• Operating with 10 turbines since 1999• 2MW average load, min load 700kW. Peak wind penetration level ~ 35%• Local utility plans expansion to 2-3 MWof wind turbine capacity
Wales Alaska Wind Diesel SystemWales Alaska Wind Diesel SystemHigh penetration system• 80kW average load with 130kW of wind power• Short term battery storage• Resistive loads used for heating and hot water
St. Paul High Penetration St. Paul High Penetration WindWind--Diesel Power System Without StorageDiesel Power System Without StorageProvide electrical and thermal loads to the industrial/airport facility • Owned and financed by the TDX corporation• 225-kW Vestas and two 150-kW Volvo diesels• 6000-gal. hot water tank and distribution• Peak plant output 160 kW, current load ~85 kW• Average penetration ~100%, peak >400%• COE ~$.21/kWh (current diesel grid $.34/kWh)
1987 2004Comparison of Digital Wind Map from 1987 U.S. Wind Atlasand New (2004) High-Resolution (200-m2) Alaska Wind Map
Wind Energy Economic Security BenefitsWind Energy Economic Security BenefitsWind energy is an indigenous, homegrown, energy resource that contributes to national security.Wind energy is inexhaustibleand infinitely renewable.Wind displaces electricity that would otherwise be produced by burning natural gas, thus helping to reduce gas demandand limit gas price hikes.Wind energy is the least costnew energy source.Wind energy boosts rural economic development.Unlike most other electricity generation sources, wind turbines don’t consume water.Wind energy has many environmental benefits.Wind energy can be used in a variety of applications. Wind energy is the fuel of today and tomorrow.
Carpe Ventemwww.windpoweringamerica.gov